cityam--2020-04-28--FCA warns banks not to pressure corporate clients amid coronavirus

The City watchdog today warned banks not to put pressure on their corporate clients to cut them into business in return for coronavirus loans .
The Financial Conduct Authority ( FCA ) wrote to lenders to say it had heard “ credible reports of a small number of banks failing to treat their corporate clients fairly ” while negotiating coronavirus loans .
It continued : “ In particular , we have heard reports that banks may have used their lending relationship to exert pressure on corporate clients to secure roles on equity mandates that the issuer would not otherwise appoint @ @ @ @ @ @ @ some of these roles may be “ in name only ” with little or no work done in exchange for fees .
“ We will be looking into this further , but want any practice of this nature to cease immediately , ” the watchdog said .
The firm slap on the wrist comes as the spotlight is on banks , with customers and policymakers keen to ensure they do their bit to keep lending during the coronavirus slowdown .
Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey has repeatedly encouraged them to increase loans @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ put their back into ” it .
Read more : Andrew Bailey : Banks should ‘ put their back into ’ coronavirus lending The FCA said today that it is “ concerned that tying clients to take additional services , or demanding fees for services not provided is not in the best interests of those clients , distorts competition , undermines market confidence and calls into question firms ’ and individuals ’ integrity ” .
It added : “ If we find further evidence to support these concerns , we will not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ conduct has no place in well-functioning markets .
”

FCA warns banks not to pressure corporate clients amid coronavirus
The City watchdog today warned banks not to put pressure on their corporate clients to cut them into business in return for coronavirus loans.
The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) wrote to lenders to say it had heard “credible reports of a small number of banks failing to treat their corporate clients fairly” while negotiating coronavirus loans.
It continued: “In particular, we have heard reports that banks may have used their lending relationship to exert pressure on corporate clients to secure roles on equity mandates that the issuer would not otherwise appoint them to.”
The FCA said that some of these roles may be “in name only” with little or no work done in exchange for fees.
“We will be looking into this further, but want any practice of this nature to cease immediately,” the watchdog said.
The firm slap on the wrist comes as the spotlight is on banks, with customers and policymakers keen to ensure they do their bit to keep lending during the coronavirus slowdown.
Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey has repeatedly encouraged them to increase loans to troubled businesses, telling them to “put their back into” it.
The FCA said today that it is “concerned that tying clients to take additional services, or demanding fees for services not provided is not in the best interests of those clients, distorts competition, undermines market confidence and calls into question firms’ and individuals’ integrity”.
It added: “If we find further evidence to support these concerns, we will not hesitate to take action, as this conduct has no place in well-functioning markets.”


cityam--2020-04-28--Matt Hancock opens coronavirus testing to all NHS and social care workers

Coronavirus tests will now be available to all NHS and social care worker staff , along with everyone living in a care home .
All NHS patients and all over 65s with coronavirus symptoms will also be eligible to receive a Covid-19 test , health secretary Matt Hancock announced today .
Read more : UK ‘ on track ’ to reach 100,000 coronavirus tests target by Thursday Hancock said 43,453 tests were administered yesterday and that the UK now has capacity to administer 73,400 tests a day .
These figures bring the UK closer to the government ’ s target @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the end of April , which is just two days away .
“ We started with testing of hospital patients…ramping up to include symptomatic NHS and social care colleagues and their households , then to all essential workers , ” Hancock said .
“ Building on successful pilots , we will be rolling out testing of asymptomatic residents and staff in care homes in England and to patients and staff in the NHS .
Anyone who is working or living in a care home will be able to get access to a test @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ From now , we ’ re making testing available to all 65s and their households with symptoms and all workers that have to leave home in order to go to work and members of their households who have symptoms.
” Hancock also announced at the press briefing that the government will now be publishing the number of coronavirus deaths from care homes and the wider community .
Previously , numbers from Public Health England had only included those who have died from Covid-19 in hospital .
Read more : London pedestrian traffic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in A further 586 people died in hospitals from coronavirus today , bringing the total to 21,678 .
The Office for National Statistics estimates that 4,343 people have died from coronavirus in care homes in the past fortnight .

Matt Hancock opens coronavirus testing to all NHS and social care workers
Matt Hancock
Coronavirus tests will now be available to all NHS and social care worker staff, along with everyone living in a care home.
All NHS patients and all over 65s with coronavirus symptoms will also be eligible to receive a Covid-19 test, health secretary Matt Hancock announced today.
Hancock said 43,453 tests were administered yesterday and that the UK now has capacity to administer 73,400 tests a day.
These figures bring the UK closer to the government’s target of 100,000 Covid-19 tests a day by the end of April, which is just two days away.
“We started with testing of hospital patients…ramping up to include symptomatic NHS and social care colleagues and their households, then to all essential workers,” Hancock said.
“Building on successful pilots, we will be rolling out testing of asymptomatic residents and staff in care homes in England and to patients and staff in the NHS. Anyone who is working or living in a care home will be able to get access to a test whether they have symptoms or not.
“From now, we’re making testing available to all 65s and their households with symptoms and all workers that have to leave home in order to go to work and members of their households who have symptoms.”
Hancock also announced at the press briefing that the government will now be publishing the number of coronavirus deaths from care homes and the wider community.
Previously, numbers from Public Health England had only included those who have died from Covid-19 in hospital.
A further 586 people died in hospitals from coronavirus today, bringing the total to 21,678.
The Office for National Statistics estimates that 4,343 people have died from coronavirus in care homes in the past fortnight.


cityam--2020-04-28--Breaking: IAG to consult on up to 12,000 redundancies

International Airlines Group ( IAG ) today said a redundancy consultation at British Airways could lead to 12,000 people losing their jobs .
Read more : Coronavirus : British Airways owner IAG suspends 90 per cent of flights IAG said British Airways is formally notifying its trade unions about a proposed restructuring and redundancy programme .
“ The proposals remain subject to consultation but it is likely that they will affect most of British Airways ’ employees and may result in the redundancy of up to 12,000 of them , ” IAG said .
In April , British Airways furloughed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s coronavirus job retention scheme .
Sign up to City A.M. ’ s Midday Update newsletter , delivered to your inbox every lunchtime The airline group said it had reduced passenger capacity in April and May by 94 per cent compared to last year .
“ Recovery to the level of passenger demand in 2019 is expected to take several years , necessitating group-wide restructuring measures , ” IAG said .
Read more : Matt Hancock opens coronavirus testing to all NHS and social care workers IAG said today it had €9.5bn ( @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and committed aircraft finance facilities at the end of March , including €6.95bn of cash , cash equivalents and interest-bearing deposits .
The British Airways-owner said it lost €535m before exceptional items in the first quarter , compared to a profit of €135m the previous year .
It also said it was hit by an exceptional charge of €1.3bn resulting from the ineffectiveness of its fuel and foreign currency hedges for the rest of 2020 .
IAG said all of the reduction in its operating result for the quarter came in March .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s operating result was incurred by British Airways , followed by Iberia and Aer Lingus , the group said .
IAG said its operating loss in the second quarter is likely to be “ significantly worse than in the first quarter , given the substantial decline in passenger capacity and traffic ” .
“ BA pilots and all staff are devastated by the announcement of up to 12,000 possible job losses in British Airways .
“ This has come as a bolt out of the blue from an airline that said it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ storm and declined any government support .
“ BALPA does not accept that a case has been made for these job losses and we will be fighting to save every single one.
” Read more : FCA warns banks not to pressure corporate clients amid coronavirus Richard Burge , chief executive of London Chamber of Commerce and Industry , said : “ This is very sad news indeed to see such a large amount of staff set to lose their jobs .
And a blow to London , its airports , supply chains @ @ @ @ @ @ @ As we ease from lockdown , and when we finally defeat covid-19 , British Airways will play a key role in the economic recovery .
I ’ m sure we see better news for them and staff over the course of time .
”

Breaking: IAG to consult on up to 12,000 redundancies
British Airways owner IAG tonight announced plans to consult on as many as 12,000 redundancies as Covid-19 continues to wreak havoc on the aviation sector.
“In light of the impact of COVID-19 on current operations and the expectation that the recovery of passenger demand to 2019 levels will take several years, British Airways is formally notifying its trade unions about a proposed restructuring and redundancy programme. The proposals remain subject to consultation but it is likely that they will affect most of British Airways’ employees and may result in the redundancy of up to 12,000 of them,” IAG told stock markets in London and Madrid in a statement Tuesday evening.
This is a breaking story and will be updated


cityam--2020-04-28--London pedestrian traffic jumps as UK coronavirus lockdown fatigue sets in

Pedestrian traffic across the capital jumped last week despite restrictions on movement as UK coronavirus lockdown fatigue began to set in and more people got back to work .
In the seven days to 27 April the Central London Streets index was 10.70 , down 90 per cent on this time last year but an increase of 34.7 per cent compared to the previous week .
Read more : Boris Johnson returns to work under pressure to ease UK coronavirus lockdown The research by Hoxton Analytics showed that pedestrian traffic this weekend was at the highest level recorded during the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ may be beginning to tire of lockdown rules as the country entered the sixth week of restrictions .
The jump in pedestrian numbers could also be attributed to more people going to work , as some construction sites have begun to reopen .
The current UK coronavirus lockdown measures are due to be reviewed on 7 May , after the latest three week period has ended .
Downing Street this morning dismissed reports that Boris Johnson , who returned to work yesterday morning after recovering from coronavirus , will set out a UK @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Yesterday the Prime Minister said that the UK was approaching the end of the “ first phase ” of the fight against coronavirus .
However , he warned that lifting UK coronavirus lockdown restrictions too soon could cause both a new wave of deaths and an “ economic disaster ” .
Read more : How and when will the UK coronavirus lockdown end ?
“ I can see the long term consequences of lockdown as clearly as anyone , ” Johnson said .
“ And so yes , I entirely share your urgency @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s urgency .
“ And yet we must also recognise the risk of a second spike , the risk of losing control of that virus and letting the reproduction rate go back over one , because that would mean not only a new wave of death and disease , but also an economic disaster .
”

London pedestrian traffic jumps as UK coronavirus lockdown fatigue sets in
Oxford Street during the UK coronavirus lockdown
Pedestrian traffic across the capital jumped last week despite restrictions on movement as UK coronavirus lockdown fatigue began to set in and more people got back to work.
In the seven days to 27 April the Central London Streets index was 10.70, down 90 per cent on this time last year but an increase of 34.7 per cent compared to the previous week.
The research by Hoxton Analytics showed that pedestrian traffic this weekend was at the highest level recorded during the lockdown period.
This suggests that people may be beginning to tire of lockdown rules as the country entered the sixth week of restrictions.
The jump in pedestrian numbers could also be attributed to more people going to work, as some construction sites have begun to reopen.
The current UK coronavirus lockdown measures are due to be reviewed on 7 May, after the latest three week period has ended.
Downing Street this morning dismissed reports that Boris Johnson, who returned to work yesterday morning after recovering from coronavirus, will set out a UK coronavirus lockdown exit strategy this week.
Yesterday the Prime Minister said that the UK was approaching the end of the “first phase” of the fight against coronavirus.
However, he warned that lifting UK coronavirus lockdown restrictions too soon could cause both a new wave of deaths and an “economic disaster”.
“I can see the long term consequences of lockdown as clearly as anyone,” Johnson said. “And so yes, I entirely share your urgency. It’s the government’s urgency.
“And yet we must also recognise the risk of a second spike, the risk of losing control of that virus and letting the reproduction rate go back over one, because that would mean not only a new wave of death and disease, but also an economic disaster.”


cityam--2020-04-29--Crypto data provider Skew launches trading platform as it raises $5m

Skew , a data analytics platform for crypto , has today launched a trading platform after a $ 5m funding round led by Octopus Ventures .
Skew Trading is a partnership with Kyte Broking focused on attracting institutional traders entering the crypto world .
Read more : VCs shun new startups as coronavirus slowdown hits investors Skew is initially focusing on OTC execution of Chicago Mercantile Exchange ( CME ) block trades for bitcoin futures and bitcoin options on futures contracts .
Chief executive Goh told City A.M. that Skew had chosen the CME because he thinks traditional institutions are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ It makes it easier for them to start investing in crypto products.
” Skew already operates a data analytics platform , Skew Analytics , which provides real-time monitoring services for cryptocurrency markets .
“ The industry remains in its infancy with the “ institutional moment ” for crypto still ahead of us .
We want to position Skew as the gate to the cryptocurrency markets for professional market participants where they can access real-time analytics and liquidity networks using the same account , ” Goh said .
The $ 5m investment round was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ investments from Digital Currency Group and existing investors Firstminute Capital and Seedcamp .
It adds to a $ 2m seed round raised in September of last year .
Skew , which currently has a headcount of nine , plans to use the funding to double in size over the next few months .
Goh told City A.M. that the main focus will be on the engineering team , and the firm has already hired two new recruits .
Zihao Xu , Octopus Ventures ’ investment manager , said : “ The team has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ back of Skew Analytics , and the launch of Skew Trading adds an important dimension to the company ’ s offering.
” Get the news as it happens by following City A.M. on Twitter .

Crypto data provider Skew launches trading platform as it raises $5m
Crypto data provider Skew has launched a trading platform after a $5m funding round led by Octopus Ventures.
Skew, a data analytics platform for crypto, has today launched a trading platform after a $5m funding round led by Octopus Ventures.
Skew Trading is a partnership with Kyte Broking focused on attracting institutional traders entering the crypto world.
Skew is initially focusing on OTC execution of Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) block trades for bitcoin futures and bitcoin options on futures contracts.
Chief executive Emmanuel Goh told City A.M. that Skew had chosen the CME because he thinks traditional institutions are already familiar with the exchange. “It makes it easier for them to start investing in crypto products.”
Skew already operates a data analytics platform, Skew Analytics, which provides real-time monitoring services for cryptocurrency markets.
“The industry remains in its infancy with the “institutional moment” for crypto still ahead of us. We want to position Skew as the gate to the cryptocurrency markets for professional market participants where they can access real-time analytics and liquidity networks using the same account,” Goh said.
The $5m investment round was led by Octopus Ventures, with additional investments from Digital Currency Group and existing investors Firstminute Capital and Seedcamp. It adds to a $2m seed round raised in September of last year.
Skew, which currently has a headcount of nine, plans to use the funding to double in size over the next few months. Goh told City A.M. that the main focus will be on the engineering team, and the firm has already hired two new recruits.
Zihao Xu, Octopus Ventures’ investment manager, said: “The team has already built a sterling reputation off the back of Skew Analytics, and the launch of Skew Trading adds an important dimension to the company’s offering.”
Get the news as it happens by following City A.M. on Twitter.


cityam--2020-04-29--Raab rebuffs calls to release coronavirus lockdown 'exit strategy'

Dominic Raab has said the government will not publish any plans for how the UK will ease the coronavirus lockdown until next week at the earliest .
Speaking at Prime Minister ’ s Questions ( PMQs ) today , Raab said the government was still waiting for the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies ( Sage ) to give its guidance on how to approach the next stage of lockdown , which will be “ in the next week or so ” .
Read more : Plans to ease UK lockdown unlikely to be announced this week Labour leader Sir Keir @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in for Boris Johnson after his fiancee gave birth this morning , to publish an “ exit strategy ” so schools , businesses and trade unions have more clarity of what is coming in the months ahead .
“ I ’ m not asking for the lockdown to be lifted , ” Starmer said .
“ We support the government on lockdown and we ’ ll continue to do so .
“ I ’ m not asking for a timeframe .
I said I wouldn ’ t ask for the impossible and I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ m asking for the government to be open with the British people about what comes next.
” Downing Street yesterday distanced itself from media reports that Johnson was preparing to give details on the next phase of the coronavirus lockdown at the end of the week .
Listen to our daily City View podcast as we chart the economic fallout and business impact of the coronavirus pandemic .
The Prime Minister ’ s official spokesman said Number 10 was “ focussing on 7 May ” , the date when the lockdown will be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ would be given this week on how the government is assessing the five tests the UK must have passed to ease social distancing restrictions .
Today , Raab said the government would not publish any proposals until it has clear advice from Sage , its key scientific advisory body .
“ I will just gently say that based on the advice and evidence we have from Sage , it would be very difficult to set out those proposals before we ’ ve had that subsequent advice from Sage , ” Raab said .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ suggesting we can set out concrete proposals now , despite clear evidence and advice from Sage , and that we should not wait for their review of evidence in the next week or so , I will gently say that is the wrong thing to do .
Read more : Boris Johnson ’ s fiancee Carrie Symonds gives birth to baby boy “ If [ Starmer ] thinks he knows better than Sage and the scientists who have suggested that , he needs to explain it.
” On Monday , the Prime Minister @ @ @ @ @ @ @ end of the first phase ” of its social distancing restrictions , but warned that lifting them too early could cause a second peak in infections .

Raab rebuffs calls to release coronavirus lockdown ‘exit strategy’
Britain’s Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab arrives in Downing Street in central London on April 29, 2020
Dominic Raab has said the government will not publish any plans for how the UK will ease the coronavirus lockdown until next week at the earliest.
Speaking at Prime Minister’s Questions (PMQs) today, Raab said the government was still waiting for the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) to give its guidance on how to approach the next stage of lockdown, which will be “in the next week or so”.
Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer pushed the foreign secretary, filling in for Boris Johnson after his fiancee gave birth this morning, to publish an “exit strategy” so schools, businesses and trade unions have more clarity of what is coming in the months ahead.
“I’m not asking for the lockdown to be lifted,” Starmer said.
“We support the government on lockdown and we’ll continue to do so.
“I’m not asking for a timeframe. I said I wouldn’t ask for the impossible and I won’t.
“I’m asking for the government to be open with the British people about what comes next.”
Downing Street yesterday distanced itself from media reports that Johnson was preparing to give details on the next phase of the coronavirus lockdown at the end of the week.
Listen to our daily City View podcast as we chart the economic fallout and business impact of the coronavirus pandemic.
The Prime Minister’s official spokesman said Number 10 was “focussing on 7 May”, the date when the lockdown will be reviewed.
He added that more details would be given this week on how the government is assessing the five tests the UK must have passed to ease social distancing restrictions.
Today, Raab said the government would not publish any proposals until it has clear advice from Sage, its key scientific advisory body.
“I will just gently say that based on the advice and evidence we have from Sage, it would be very difficult to set out those proposals before we’ve had that subsequent advice from Sage,” Raab said.
“If [Starmer’s] suggesting we can set out concrete proposals now, despite clear evidence and advice from Sage, and that we should not wait for their review of evidence in the next week or so, I will gently say that is the wrong thing to do.
“If [Starmer] thinks he knows better than Sage and the scientists who have suggested that, he needs to explain it.”
On Monday, the Prime Minister said the UK was “approaching the end of the first phase” of its social distancing restrictions, but warned that lifting them too early could cause a second peak in infections.


cityam--2020-04-29--Barclays boss: Government prepared to go 'well beyond' £330bn in business support

Barclays boss Jes Staley has said that the government is prepared to go “ well beyond ” its initial £330bn coronavirus business rescue package , labelling its efforts so far “ an extraordinary tsunami ” .
Speaking to analysts this morning , Staley said : ‘ £330bn was a first indicative number , but I think it ’ s pretty clear that they are willing to go well well beyond that .
Read more : Barclays ’ first quarter profit falls by £600m amid coronavirus disruption “ We shouldn ’ t underestimate the economic commitments that the government is making @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that ” , he added .
Thus far , Barclays have given out £737m in coronavirus business interruption loans to 3,760 businesses in the UK , and are also the government ’ s commercial partner for the job retention furlough scheme .
Banks have come under criticism for not reacting fast enough to the crisis , with many calling on lenders to up the rate at which they process applications .
According to the latest available data , the number of coronavirus loans doubled last week to £2.8bn , but only around half @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Staley said that he was in constant conversation with authorities regarding how to develop the programmes : “ There ’ s a tremendous amount of dialogue between myself and the chancellor and the Bank of England , about how we evolve these programmes to make them more and more effective and more and more efficient .
Listen to our daily City View podcast as we chart the economic fallout and business impact of the coronavirus pandemic .
“ This is a very new frontier so it takes us a while to get there @ @ @ @ @ @ @ boss Noel Quinn said that the approval rate for such loans would likely speed up after banks on Monday removed a requirement for small businesses to predict their future earnings .
“ There ’ s been some adjustments to the criteria in the last few days… and therefore those should make it easier to process those transactions , ” Quinn told City A.M. “ The primary issue was around scheme eligibility and setting up the process , that was something we had to react very quickly to ” .
Thus far HSBC has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ small businesses .
TheCityUK boss Miles Celic stepped in to defend banks over their lending record yesterday .
Read more : HSBC CEO : Applications for coronavirus loans ‘ now easier ’ to process Speaking to City A.M. editor Christian May on City A.M ’ s daily City View podcast , Celic said banks were not “ shirking their responsibilities ” .
He added : “ It was the taxpayer and the country that had to stand behind the banks [ in 2008 , whereas ] this is an opportunity for banks and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ country .
”

Barclays boss: Government prepared to go ‘well beyond’ £330bn in business support
JPMorgan said Staley should cover some or all damages if it were found liable, and pay punitive damages for his “intentional and outrageous conduct” in concealing information about Epstein
Barclays boss Jes Staley has said that the government is prepared to go “well beyond” its initial £330bn coronavirus business rescue package, labelling its efforts so far “an extraordinary tsunami”.
Speaking to analysts this morning, Staley said: ‘£330bn was a first indicative number, but I think it’s pretty clear that they are willing to go well well beyond that.
“We shouldn’t underestimate the economic commitments that the government is making, and we need to partner with that”, he added.
Thus far, Barclays have given out £737m in coronavirus business interruption loans to 3,760 businesses in the UK, and are also the government’s commercial partner for the job retention furlough scheme.
Banks have come under criticism for not reacting fast enough to the crisis, with many calling on lenders to up the rate at which they process applications.
According to the latest available data, the number of coronavirus loans doubled last week to £2.8bn, but only around half of 36,000 applications have been approved.
Staley said that he was in constant conversation with authorities regarding how to develop the programmes:
“There’s a tremendous amount of dialogue between myself and the chancellor and the Bank of England, about how we evolve these programmes to make them more and more effective and more and more efficient.
Listen to our daily City View podcast as we chart the economic fallout and business impact of the coronavirus pandemic.
“This is a very new frontier so it takes us a while to get there”, he added.
Yesterday HSBC boss Noel Quinn said that the approval rate for such loans would likely speed up after banks on Monday removed a requirement for small businesses to predict their future earnings.
“There’s been some adjustments to the criteria in the last few days… and therefore those should make it easier to process those transactions,” Quinn told City A.M.
“The primary issue was around scheme eligibility and setting up the process, that was something we had to react very quickly to”.
Thus far HSBC has approved around £600m in loans to 4,200 small businesses.
TheCityUK boss Miles Celic stepped in to defend banks over their lending record yesterday.
Speaking to City A.M. editor Christian May on City A.M’s daily City View podcast, Celic said banks were not “shirking their responsibilities”.
He added: “It was the taxpayer and the country that had to stand behind the banks [in 2008, whereas] this is an opportunity for banks and the financial sector to stand behind the country.”


cityam--2020-04-29--FTSE 100 opens higher as markets await US GDP data

The FTSE 100 has opened up higher as markets nervously awaited the latest GDP figures from the US .
The blue-chip stock index is up 0.56 per cent higher , to 5,992 , extending gains made yesterday .
Read more : FTSE 100 jumps as investors look past dire results to economies reopening European markets are on the rise as investors anticipate a potential further bout of easing from the Fed .
The FTSE 100 rose over 6,000 points in morning trading , for the first time since 11 March .
Germany ’ s Dax held above 10,800 with a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s Cac rose 0.37 per cent .
Traders are waiting for the first-quarter GDP figures to shed some light on how badly the pandemic has hit the US economy .
The figures include only two full weeks of lockdown , so a worse than forecast reading will stoke fear in the markets .
Connor Campbell , financial analyst at Spreadex , said investors may not only react to the GDP figure “ but whether or not it ’ ll prompt some more stimulus from the Fed.
” The central bank is set @ @ @ @ @ @ @ our daily City View podcast as we chart the economic fallout and business impact of the coronavirus pandemic .
US markets ended the session lower overnight , with the Down Jones down 0.13 per cent at 24,101 .
The S & P 500 closed 0.52 per cent lower at 2,863 and the Nasdaq fell 1.4 per cent to 8,607 .
Market sentiment has stabilised in recent days , with the FTSE closing up 1.9 per cent yesterday .
Joshua Mahoney , senior market analyst at IG , said : “ The recent upside @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to be a combination of optimism over easing lockdown restrictions , coupled with the ever-present influence of huge global stimulus packages.
” Last night , France outlined plans to ease lockdown measures , with children returning to school and many shops reopening .
Italy has also announced a number of measures will be lifted after seven weeks on lockdown .
However , economic questions remain until a vaccine is found , said Mahoney .
“ Easing lockdown measures is unlikely to bring back complete normality thanks to the virus that continues to influence @ @ @ @ @ @ @ level , ” he added .
British Airways owner IAG is one of the biggest fallers on the FTSE 100 , after announcing it would cut 12,000 jobs .
Shares fell as much as six per cent before recovering to trade down 3.6 per cent .
“ Recovery to the level of passenger demand in 2019 is expected to take several years , necessitating group-wide restructuring measures , ” IAG said in a statement yesterday .
The airline announced it had also made a loss of €535m in the first quarter , with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ : FTSE 100 pushes higher as Europe prepares to relax coronavirus lockdowns There were moderate gains made elsewhere in the sector , with Ryanair and Easyjet both trading up nearly three per cent .
IAG said its operating loss in the second quarter is likely to be “ significantly worse than in the first quarter , given the substantial decline in passenger capacity and traffic ” .
Michael Hewson , chief market analyst at CMC Markets , said : “ There appears no escaping the reality that the aviation and travel sector is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to any sense of normality.
” Mahoney added : “ There is a feeling that while bargain hunters will see value in heavily-sold stocks in the travel sector , the length of time required to regain full demand means that this support is unlikely to last.
” Russ Mould , investment director at AJ Bell , said a positive reaction to Barclays ’ results this morning helped lift the FTSE 100 higher .
Shares are up more than six per cent despite reporting a £600m drop in profit for the first quarter .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ its commitment to investment banking , this part of the business is actually performing well at a time when the retail bank is facing a significant increase in bad debts , ” he said .
Investors welcomed Standard Chartered pointing to “ encouraging early signs ” of recovery in China .
The lender is trading up three per cent .
Get the news as it happens by following City A.M. on Twitter .

FTSE 100 jumps as Gilead reports positive data on coronavirus drug trial
The FTSE 100 closed at its highest in seven weeks after drugmaker Gilead reported positive results from its trials for a coronavirus drug.
The blue-chip FTSE 100 index rose 2.13 per cent higher to finish at 6,085 points, the first time it has surpassed the 6,000 mark since 11 March.
Read more: FTSE 100 jumps as investors look past dire results to economies reopening
Gilead said it was aware of positive data emerging from the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases’ study of its antiviral drug remdesivir.
Neil Wilson, chief market analyst at Markets.com, said investors had welcomed the news. “The closer you get to treatment or a vaccine the quicker we reopen the economy and the lower the risk of a second, third wave outbreaks.”
US economy shrinks at fastest pace since financial crisis
This came despite worse than anticipated first-quarter GDP figures in the US. US GDP shrank at its fastest rate since the financial crisis at an annualised rate of 4.8 per cent. Analysts had expected a contraction of four per cent.
Given the figures only capture two weeks of the lockdown measures, analysts predict second-quarter figures will be much worse.
Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG, said: “This is a market that ignores or rides out bad news and focuses on the good data, no matter how limited that might be.” Investors had anticipated dire GDP figures for the first quarter, and indeed that the second quarter would be worse.
“How much worse will not be clear for a while, but given the market has rebounded from its steep decline things will need to be much worse for a real retest of the March lows to get underway,” Beauchamp adds.
Investors looked past the bad news as the Dow Jones opened two per cent higher, while the S&P 500 rose 2.5 per cent.
Listen to our daily City View podcast as we chart the economic fallout and business impact of the coronavirus pandemic.
Oil helps FTSE 100 reach seven-week peak
The FTSE 100 hit a seven-week peak in part due to oil prices bouncing back somewhat. Brent crude is up around five per cent and back to $21.50 per barrel.
The rise in prices gave the energy sector a lift and bolstered stocks. BP closed up 3.9 per cent while Shell rose four per cent.
Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell, said a positive reaction to Barclays’ results this morning also helped lift the FTSE 100 higher. Shares are up nearly 14 per cent despite reporting a £600m drop in profit for the first quarter.
“Although Barclays has attracted flak for its commitment to investment banking, this part of the business is actually performing well at a time when the retail bank is facing a significant increase in bad debts,” he said.
Investors also welcomed Standard Chartered pointing to “encouraging early signs” of recovery in China. The lender is trading up 7.5 per cent.
Easing of lockdown measures quell nerves
Market sentiment in Europe has stabilised in recent days. Germany’s Dax jumped 2.5 per cent to close at 11,060 points, while France’s Cac rose two per cent.
Joshua Mahoney, senior market analyst at IG, said: “The recent upside seen in European and US stocks appears to be a combination of optimism over easing lockdown restrictions, coupled with the ever-present influence of huge global stimulus packages.”
Last night, France outlined plans to ease lockdown measures, with children returning to school and many shops reopening. Italy has also announced a number of measures will be lifted after seven weeks on lockdown.
However, economic questions remain until a vaccine is found, said Mahoney. “Easing lockdown measures is unlikely to bring back complete normality thanks to the virus that continues to influence decisions on both the business and consumer level,” he added.
Get the news as it happens by following City A.M. on Twitter.


cityam--2020-04-29--Spotify grows user numbers as Covid-19 hits advertising revenue

Spotify today reported a sharp rise in user numbers for the first quarter as coronavirus lockdown measures sparked a huge shift in listening habits around the globe .
The streaming service posted a 31 per cent year on year growth in monthly active users to 286m .
The figures , which were in line with expectations , marked the third consecutive quarter of growth above 30 per cent .
Total revenue grew 22 per cent over the period to €1.8bn ( £1.6bn ) , driven by a strong rise in premium revenue from subscribers to €1.7bn .
However , Spotify @ @ @ @ @ @ @ wider advertising market .
Ad-supported revenue grew 17 per cent to €148m , but fell short of the firm ’ s expectations .
The Swedish music giant said the impact of Covid-19 had been hardest in the final three weeks of the quarter , when ad revenue was down more than 20 per cent .
Operating loss for the quarter was €17m , down from €47m in the same period last year .
Shares in Spotify were down marginally in pre-market trading in New York .
Spotify said Covid-19 had had a limited @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the firm will scale back hiring plans for the remainder of the year .
However , the crisis has sparked a huge shift in listening habits .
“ It ’ s clear from our data that morning routines have changed significantly .
Every day now looks like the weekend , ” the company said .
Spotify said morning listening — especially podcasts — had fallen due to a reduction in commuting , while listening around such as cooking and doing chores had risen .
Coronavirus-related anxiety was also reflected in increased searches for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ music , as well as for wellness and meditation podcasts .
Spotify , which generates the vast majority of its revenue of subscribers , has focused on trying to convert ad-supported users into paid members .
The firm increased premium subscribers 31 per cent over the quarter to 130m , driven largely by the success of its family plan .
It has also launched Spotify Kids for children aged three or over , as well as its duo offering — a premium plan aimed at couples .
In addition , the music company @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in a bid to cash in on the surging popularity of on-demand listening .
Last year Spotify splashed out at least €300m to buy three podcast startups , and has since added sports and pop culture platform The Ringer to its portfolio .
The company said it launched 78 original and exclusive podcasts over the quarter , and now has more than 1m shows on its platform .
However , podcasts have suffered a hit from the Covid-19 crisis , with the lockdown prompting a slowdown in new show production .
Jovan Buac @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at Landor , said Spotify was one of the “ lucky ” brands seeing an increase in usage , share and value .
“ We ’ ve seen it before and we will surely see it again – during times of adversity , we turn to brands whose products and services fulfil our needs as consumers , in meaningful ways , ” he said .
“ Spotify is surely one of those and as a result will no doubt have a closer bond with its users post crisis.
” Read more : Spotify @ @ @ @ @ @ @ forecast total user numbers of between 289m and 299m in the second quarter , with revenue between €1.75bn and €1.95bn .
The company downgraded its full-year revenue guidance to €7.65bn to €8.05bn from €8.08bn to €8.48bn as a result of the hit to advertising from Covid-19 , but maintained its forecasts for other metrics .

Spotify grows user numbers as Covid-19 hits advertising revenue
Spotify today reported a sharp rise in user numbers for the first quarter as coronavirus lockdown measures sparked a huge shift in listening habits around the globe.
The streaming service posted a 31 per cent year on year growth in monthly active users to 286m. The figures, which were in line with expectations, marked the third consecutive quarter of growth above 30 per cent.
Total revenue grew 22 per cent over the period to €1.8bn (£1.6bn), driven by a strong rise in premium revenue from subscribers to €1.7bn.
However, Spotify was hit by a downturn in the wider advertising market. Ad-supported revenue grew 17 per cent to €148m, but fell short of the firm’s expectations.
The Swedish music giant said the impact of Covid-19 had been hardest in the final three weeks of the quarter, when ad revenue was down more than 20 per cent.
Operating loss for the quarter was €17m, down from €47m in the same period last year.
Shares in Spotify were down marginally in pre-market trading in New York.
Spotify said Covid-19 had had a limited impact on its own business, though the firm will scale back hiring plans for the remainder of the year.
However, the crisis has sparked a huge shift in listening habits. “It’s clear from our data that morning routines have changed significantly. Every day now looks like the weekend,” the company said.
Spotify said morning listening — especially podcasts — had fallen due to a reduction in commuting, while listening around such as cooking and doing chores had risen.
Coronavirus-related anxiety was also reflected in increased searches for “chill” and “instrumental” music, as well as for wellness and meditation podcasts.
Spotify, which generates the vast majority of its revenue of subscribers, has focused on trying to convert ad-supported users into paid members.
The firm increased premium subscribers 31 per cent over the quarter to 130m, driven largely by the success of its family plan. It has also launched Spotify Kids for children aged three or over, as well as its duo offering — a premium plan aimed at couples.
In addition, the music company has ramped up its focus on podcasts in a bid to cash in on the surging popularity of on-demand listening.
Last year Spotify splashed out at least €300m to buy three podcast startups, and has since added sports and pop culture platform The Ringer to its portfolio.
The company said it launched 78 original and exclusive podcasts over the quarter, and now has more than 1m shows on its platform. However, podcasts have suffered a hit from the Covid-19 crisis, with the lockdown prompting a slowdown in new show production.
Jovan Buac, senior client director of consumer brands at Landor, said Spotify was one of the “lucky” brands seeing an increase in usage, share and value.
“We’ve seen it before and we will surely see it again – during times of adversity, we turn to brands whose products and services fulfil our needs as consumers, in meaningful ways,” he said. “Spotify is surely one of those and as a result will no doubt have a closer bond with its users post crisis.”
Spotify forecast total user numbers of between 289m and 299m in the second quarter, with revenue between €1.75bn and €1.95bn.
The company downgraded its full-year revenue guidance to €7.65bn to €8.05bn from €8.08bn to €8.48bn as a result of the hit to advertising from Covid-19, but maintained its forecasts for other metrics.


cityam--2020-04-29--Employers call for government to extend furlough scheme to avoid job cuts

Employers want the government to extend its worker furlough scheme to September and make it more flexible to help avoid a wave of redundancies .
A survey by the Chartered Insitute of Personnel and Decelopment ( CIPD ) found 60 per cent of employers thought extending the furlough scheme to September was the most important labour market policy change that would help them deal with the impact of covid-19 .
Read more : Airlines call on government to extend furlough scheme beyond June The CIPD warned that without this change the scheme could be a “ waiting room for unemployment @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the jobs it set out to save ” .
Under the coronavirus job retention scheme , the government will pay 80 per cent of an employee ’ s wages up to £2,500 a month until the end of June if they are furloughed from their role .
They are not allowed to work for their parent company during this period .
Employers also want the scheme to be more flexible , enabling staff to work part time and have some of their wages covered by the government .
Read more : More than @ @ @ @ @ @ @ staff , BCC says Seven in ten employers ( 70 per cent ) that have already used or are considering using the furlough scheme , said that up to half of furloughed staff could potentially work reduced hours , while 16 per cent of these organisations reported that more than 50 per cent of furloughed staff could work reduced hours The CIPD said changes to the scheme to allow short-time working would : “ enable hundreds of thousands of furloughed staff to work in some capacity , helping to protect jobs , support @ @ @ @ @ @ @ finances.
” The survey shows that almost half ( 46 per cent ) of employers have already furloughed staff , while another 10 per cent plan to do so .
Sign up to City A.M. ’ s Midday Update newsletter , delivered to your inbox every lunchtime CIPD chief executive , Peter Cheese , said : “ The government has worked hard to get the job retention scheme up and running so quickly .
However , urgent decisions must now be taken to make it more flexible and to extend it so employers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Letting furloughed staff work some hours , where possible , will enable organisations to bring back workers from furlough gradually while rebuilding their business .
This will be vital as lockdown measures are eased over a number of weeks or months , and will reduce the risk of large-scale redundancies in this next phase of the crisis .
“ The government must also consider extending the scheme to at least the end of September .
This will provide more certainty for employers and ensure that there is no ‘ cliff edge ’ exit @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of thousands of workers at the end of June .
”

Employers call for government to extend furlough scheme to avoid job cuts
Employers want the government to extend its worker furlough scheme to September and make it more flexible to help avoid a wave of redundancies.
A survey by the Chartered Insitute of Personnel and Decelopment (CIPD) found 60 per cent of employers thought extending the furlough scheme to September was the most important labour market policy change that would help them deal with the impact of covid-19.
The CIPD warned that without this change the scheme could be a “waiting room for unemployment and fail to protect significant numbers of the jobs it set out to save”.
Under the coronavirus job retention scheme, the government will pay 80 per cent of an employee’s wages up to £2,500 a month until the end of June if they are furloughed from their role.
They are not allowed to work for their parent company during this period.
Employers also want the scheme to be more flexible, enabling staff to work part time and have some of their wages covered by the government.
Seven in ten employers (70 per cent) that have already used or are considering using the furlough scheme, said that up to half of furloughed staff could potentially work reduced hours, while 16 per cent of these organisations reported that more than 50 per cent of furloughed staff could work reduced hours
The CIPD said changes to the scheme to allow short-time working would: “enable hundreds of thousands of furloughed staff to work in some capacity, helping to protect jobs, support businesses and reduce the burden on public finances.”
The survey shows that almost half (46 per cent) of employers have already furloughed staff, while another 10 per cent plan to do so.
Sign up to City A.M.’s Midday Update newsletter, delivered to your inbox every lunchtime
CIPD chief executive, Peter Cheese, said: “The government has worked hard to get the job retention scheme up and running so quickly. However, urgent decisions must now be taken to make it more flexible and to extend it so employers can continue to protect jobs.
“Letting furloughed staff work some hours, where possible, will enable organisations to bring back workers from furlough gradually while rebuilding their business. This will be vital as lockdown measures are eased over a number of weeks or months, and will reduce the risk of large-scale redundancies in this next phase of the crisis.
“The government must also consider extending the scheme to at least the end of September. This will provide more certainty for employers and ensure that there is no ‘cliff edge’ exit from furlough straight to redundancy for hundreds of thousands of workers at the end of June.”


cityam--2020-04-29--Airbus profit halves amid 'gravest crisis' in aviation history

Aerospace giant Airbus saw its profit halve in the first quarter as it faced up to what its chief executive labelled the “ gravest crisis ” in aviation history .
The spread of coronavirus has led to widespread grounding of flights around the world , prompting the French-German firm ’ s orders to plummet .
Read more : Airbus ‘ bleeding cash at an unprecedented speed ’ due to coronavirus In the first quarter , the company ’ s profit fell 49 per cent to €281m ( £245.7m ) , with revenue also contracting 15 per cent to €10.6bn .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ difficulties were expected in the second quarter , saying that “ all nature of costs are being reviewed ” .
Airbus is taking urgent measures to stem the flow of cash out of the company , having lost €8bn in the first quarter alone , including €3.6bn related to corruption probes in the UK , Franc and US .
The firm announced it would put 3,200 UK staff onto the government ’ s furlough scheme for workers , having already done the same to 3,000 French employees .
Listen to our daily City @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fallout and business impact of the coronavirus pandemic .
Finance chief Dominik Asam did not comment on whether Airbus would be forced to make redundancies , but told staff last week to “ prepare for far-reaching measures ” .
Asam also raised the possibility that the firm cut implement further production cuts depending on what the situation requires .
Earlier this month Airbus announced it would cut output by between 33 and 42 per cent according to the model in question .
“ We are doing everything we can to be in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” Faury said .
Read more : Coronavirus : Airbus to cut jet production by a third He added that the firm would reduce spending by €700m to €1.9bn and defer any and all spending that was not “ critical ” .
Airbus is predicting a slight recovery in the third quarter , before a return to a neutral situation by the end of the year .

Airbus profit halves amid ‘gravest crisis’ in aviation history
The SFO has dropped its investigation into Airbus.
Aerospace giant Airbus saw its profit halve in the first quarter as it faced up to what its chief executive labelled the “gravest crisis” in aviation history.
The spread of coronavirus has led to widespread grounding of flights around the world, prompting the French-German firm’s orders to plummet.
In the first quarter, the company’s profit fell 49 per cent to €281m (£245.7m), with revenue also contracting 15 per cent to €10.6bn.
Chief executive Guillaume Faury warned that similar difficulties were expected in the second quarter, saying that “all nature of costs are being reviewed”.
Airbus is taking urgent measures to stem the flow of cash out of the company, having lost €8bn in the first quarter alone, including €3.6bn related to corruption probes in the UK, Franc and US.
The firm announced it would put 3,200 UK staff onto the government’s furlough scheme for workers, having already done the same to 3,000 French employees.
Listen to our daily City View podcast as we chart the economic fallout and business impact of the coronavirus pandemic.
Finance chief Dominik Asam did not comment on whether Airbus would be forced to make redundancies, but told staff last week to “prepare for far-reaching measures”.
Asam also raised the possibility that the firm cut implement further production cuts depending on what the situation requires.
Earlier this month Airbus announced it would cut output by between 33 and 42 per cent according to the model in question.
“We are doing everything we can to be in the best shape for competing again later,” Faury said.
He added that the firm would reduce spending by €700m to €1.9bn and defer any and all spending that was not “critical”.
Airbus is predicting a slight recovery in the third quarter, before a return to a neutral situation by the end of the year.


cityam--2020-04-29--Elon Musk calls for end of lockdown ahead of Tesla first quarter earnings

Billionaire Tesla boss Elon Musk today called for the end of the US coronavirus lockdown ahead of the electric car company ’ s first quarter results tonight .
He also tweeted a story about the relaxation of lockdown in Texas with the comment : “ Bravo Texas !
” Tesla will deliver its earnings results for the first quarter tonight after US markets close .
Sign up to City A.M. ’ s Midday Update newsletter , delivered to your inbox every lunchtime Yesterday , fellow car company Ford posted a $ 2bn ( £1.6bn ) first quarter loss , blaming @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Read more : Tesla to furlough workers and cut salaries due to coronavirus Tesla shares surged this week on anticipation of its results and on speculation it could reopen its Fremont , California , plant after it was closed because of the pandemic .
Tesla suspended production at its San Francisco vehicle factory and New York solar roof tile factory on 24 March due to the pandemic .
Earlier this month Tesla furloughed all non-essential workers and cut salaries after production was shut down .
In the US , workers ’ pay was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ salaries by 20 per cent and vice presidents ’ salaries by 30 per cent .
Tesla employs more than 10,000 people at its car factory , which produced just over 415,000 vehicles last year .
Before the health crisis the firm had been planning to ramp up production of its Model Y SUV , which is expected to generate high demand .
Tesla has said it has enough liquidity to survive the period of uncertainty during the pandemic , with $ 6.3bn in cash at the end of the third quarter , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ raise .
On 6 March Musk criticised fear over the spread of coronavirus .

Elon Musk calls for end of lockdown ahead of Tesla first quarter earnings
Billionaire Tesla boss Elon Musk today called for the end of the US coronavirus lockdown ahead of the electric car company’s first quarter results tonight.
Musk tweeted: “FREE AMERICA NOW” and separately tweeted “give people their freedom back!”
FREE AMERICA NOW — Elon Musk (@elonmusk) April 29, 2020
He also tweeted a story about the relaxation of lockdown in Texas with the comment: “Bravo Texas!”
Tesla will deliver its earnings results for the first quarter tonight after US markets close.
Sign up to City A.M.’s Midday Update newsletter, delivered to your inbox every lunchtime
Yesterday, fellow car company Ford posted a $2bn (£1.6bn) first quarter loss, blaming the impact of the coronavirus epidemic.
Tesla shares surged this week on anticipation of its results and on speculation it could reopen its Fremont, California, plant after it was closed because of the pandemic.
Tesla suspended production at its San Francisco vehicle factory and New York solar roof tile factory on 24 March due to the pandemic.
Earlier this month Tesla furloughed all non-essential workers and cut salaries after production was shut down.
In the US, workers’ pay was cut by 10 per cent, directors’ salaries by 20 per cent and vice presidents’ salaries by 30 per cent.
Tesla employs more than 10,000 people at its car factory, which produced just over 415,000 vehicles last year.
Before the health crisis the firm had been planning to ramp up production of its Model Y SUV, which is expected to generate high demand.
Tesla has said it has enough liquidity to survive the period of uncertainty during the pandemic, with $6.3bn in cash at the end of the third quarter, ahead of a recent $2.3bn funding raise.
On 6 March Musk criticised fear over the spread of coronavirus.


cityam--2020-04-29--A new economic era beckons after this crisis

Current events likely mark a turning point in economic policy and the end of a 40-year spell of free market capitalism .
Nobody can know how long the Covid-19 crisis will last , but I think that regardless of this it will mark a profound long-term change in economic policy .
It is likely a turning point in history ; historians may look back and say it marked the end of the 1980-2020 period of effectively unfettered capitalism in the West .
Right now we are seeing massive government intervention in the private sector , whether it be compulsory orders @ @ @ @ @ @ @ instructions for banks to cancel dividends , and government-directed bank lending .
All of these mark the end of economist Adam Smith ’ s “ invisible hand ” , which has operated mostly unconstrained throughout my 30-year investment career .
This term , popularised in Smith ’ s seminal book “ The wealth of nations ” , refers to an unobservable market force that enables the supply and demand of goods in a free market to reach equilibrium .
In my view , we are moving to a new era for macroeconomic policy-making @ @ @ @ @ @ @ policy is about to become the norm .
Meanwhile , I think a number of things are coming to an end in many countries : the independence of central banks , quantitative easing , the financialisation of assets ( where policy drives asset prices not the economy ) and the belief that relatively unconfined capitalism is the best approach to economic management .
For more : – Economies in free fall as hopes fade for a V-shaped recovery – Will Covid-19 prove a pivotal moment for climate change ?
– How has coronavirus @ @ @ @ @ @ @ short-term , collapsing economies are likely to be deflationary and government bond yields could fall further .
However , in the medium term ( one-to-two years ) we think the policies to offset the severe slowdown caused by Covid-19 are likely to be similar , ultimately , to some form of MMT ( Modern Monetary Theory – basically where fiscal expenditure is primarily financed by the printing of money ) .
These policies may ultimately signal the end of deflation and the prolonged period of lower economic growth ( also known as secular @ @ @ @ @ @ @ global financial crisis in 2008 .
Chart 1 : Is the 40 year bull market in government bonds coming to an end ?
Other trends are likely to combine with this , including : • The end of rising globalisation and the optimisation of supply chains .
Globalisation was already starting to reverse ( in terms of trade as a percentage of global GDP ) as countries increasingly questioned an excessive reliance on China , and the complexity and risks of relying on supply chains in multiple far-flung places .
Onshoring will likely @ @ @ @ @ @ @ essential and critical areas like pharmaceuticals , defence and healthcare infrastructure and technology .
This will call into question the development model currently pursued by many emerging economies .
• Big government will be the new popular mantra .
Again , like the trend in globalisation , this was starting anyway .
Whether it be Mr Trump in the US with his populist policies or the new Conservative government in UK with its plans for a better society .
Millennials and Gen Z are clearly much more open to big government and populism @ @ @ @ @ @ @ X generations who remember the woes of the 1970s .
Big government will mean governments increasing control and direct capital investment , research and development expenditure , and governments owning or controlling key critical economic infrastructure ( transport , utilities , telecoms , banks ) .
The rich will be expected to pay more , whether via income tax , sin taxes , capital gains , wealth taxes , property taxes – governments can be innovative , when it comes to taxes at least .
Minimum income guarantees may also become entrenched in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ introduced them due to the Covid-19 crisis .
The euro is finally stabilised/saved as Germany agrees to fiscal largesse and we move to a Federal Europe .
Without this , the euro will probably collapse if the current crisis is prolonged .
MMT-style policies may then engender the need for capital controls/financial repression ( the forced holding of government bonds by domestic institutions such as banks and insurance companies ) in many countries in order to ensure governments are not beholden to markets .
• Crony capitalism will be out .
Buy backs @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that is set at extreme levels .
The trend where CEO pay goes to ever-higher multiples of average employee earnings will reverse .
Chart 2 : Is crony capitalism finally on the way out ?
Clearly , the above is speculation , but we are fairly convinced by the direction of travel on the above issues , albeit not the speed .
In reality the world in two years ’ time may look more like the post WW2 period when governments in the West were faced with huge debt burdens and exhausted , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to create a fairer society and to inflate away unsustainable debt burdens .
It is also interestingly a policy regime not so different from that which prevails in China today .
Moving on – what does this mean for investment ?
If we are correct on our thesis above , it is not a backdrop in which financial assets generally do well .
Clearly cash and bonds are unlikely to do well .
Some areas of property and equities should be a better inflation hedge – but key will be to be focus @ @ @ @ @ @ @ intervention .
Asian equities themselves strike me as one of the better places to be as the crisis unfolds and the policy response comes through .
Starting government debt levels in Asia are much lower than in the West , so the extent of the policy reset above may be less in Asia .
Whilst not immune from the structural changes above , I am less worried about the impact of the new “ Big Government ” on Asian equities .
And of course in China “ Big Government ” is already the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and opinions contained herein are of those named in the article and may not necessarily represent views expressed or reflected in other Schroders communications , strategies or funds .
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A new economic era beckons after this crisis
COVID-19 coronavirus, finance and crisis concept, US president Franklin`s eyes and face mask on 100 dollar money bill. Corona virus affects global stock market. World economy hit by pandemic fears.
Current events likely mark a turning point in economic policy and the end of a 40-year spell of free market capitalism.
Nobody can know how long the Covid-19 crisis will last, but I think that regardless of this it will mark a profound long-term change in economic policy.
It is likely a turning point in history; historians may look back and say it marked the end of the 1980-2020 period of effectively unfettered capitalism in the West.
Right now we are seeing massive government intervention in the private sector, whether it be compulsory orders for landlords to offer rent-free periods, instructions for banks to cancel dividends, and government-directed bank lending.
All of these mark the end of economist Adam Smith’s “invisible hand”, which has operated mostly unconstrained throughout my 30-year investment career. This term, popularised in Smith’s seminal book “The wealth of nations”, refers to an unobservable market force that enables the supply and demand of goods in a free market to reach equilibrium.
In my view, we are moving to a new era for macroeconomic policy-making. The fusion of fiscal and monetary policy is about to become the norm.
Meanwhile, I think a number of things are coming to an end in many countries: the independence of central banks, quantitative easing, the financialisation of assets (where policy drives asset prices not the economy) and the belief that relatively unconfined capitalism is the best approach to economic management.
For more:
– Economies in free fall as hopes fade for a V-shaped recovery
– Will Covid-19 prove a pivotal moment for climate change?
– How has coronavirus impacted the energy transition?
In the short-term, collapsing economies are likely to be deflationary and government bond yields could fall further. However, in the medium term (one-to-two years) we think the policies to offset the severe slowdown caused by Covid-19 are likely to be similar, ultimately, to some form of MMT (Modern Monetary Theory – basically where fiscal expenditure is primarily financed by the printing of money).
These policies may ultimately signal the end of deflation and the prolonged period of lower economic growth (also known as secular stagnation) we have seen since the global financial crisis in 2008.
Chart 1: Is the 40 year bull market in government bonds coming to an end?
Other trends are likely to combine with this, including:
The end of rising globalisation and the optimisation of supply chains.
Globalisation was already starting to reverse (in terms of trade as a percentage of global GDP) as countries increasingly questioned an excessive reliance on China, and the complexity and risks of relying on supply chains in multiple far-flung places. Onshoring will likely become the increasing norm, especially for essential and critical areas like pharmaceuticals, defence and healthcare infrastructure and technology. This will call into question the development model currently pursued by many emerging economies.
Big government will be the new popular mantra.
Again, like the trend in globalisation, this was starting anyway. Whether it be Mr Trump in the US with his populist policies or the new Conservative government in UK with its plans for a better society. Millennials and Gen Z are clearly much more open to big government and populism compared to the Baby Boomers and Gen X generations who remember the woes of the 1970s. Big government will mean governments increasing control and direct capital investment, research and development expenditure, and governments owning or controlling key critical economic infrastructure (transport, utilities, telecoms, banks).
Higher taxes.
The rich will be expected to pay more, whether via income tax, sin taxes, capital gains, wealth taxes, property taxes – governments can be innovative, when it comes to taxes at least. Minimum income guarantees may also become entrenched in many countries especially those that have effectively introduced them due to the Covid-19 crisis.
A Federal Europe.
The euro is finally stabilised/saved as Germany agrees to fiscal largesse and we move to a Federal Europe. Without this, the euro will probably collapse if the current crisis is prolonged. MMT-style policies may then engender the need for capital controls/financial repression (the forced holding of government bonds by domestic institutions such as banks and insurance companies) in many countries in order to ensure governments are not beholden to markets.
Crony capitalism will be out.
Buy backs will be penalised as will CEO compensation that is set at extreme levels. The trend where CEO pay goes to ever-higher multiples of average employee earnings will reverse.
Chart 2: Is crony capitalism finally on the way out?
Clearly, the above is speculation, but we are fairly convinced by the direction of travel on the above issues, albeit not the speed. In reality the world in two years’ time may look more like the post WW2 period when governments in the West were faced with huge debt burdens and exhausted, war-weary populations looked to the policies above to create a fairer society and to inflate away unsustainable debt burdens. It is also interestingly a policy regime not so different from that which prevails in China today.
The investment implications
Moving on – what does this mean for investment? If we are correct on our thesis above, it is not a backdrop in which financial assets generally do well. Clearly cash and bonds are unlikely to do well. Some areas of property and equities should be a better inflation hedge – but key will be to be focus on those areas less prone to government intervention.
Asian equities themselves strike me as one of the better places to be as the crisis unfolds and the policy response comes through. Starting government debt levels in Asia are much lower than in the West, so the extent of the policy reset above may be less in Asia.
Whilst not immune from the structural changes above, I am less worried about the impact of the new “Big Government” on Asian equities. And of course in China “Big Government” is already the norm.
Important Information: The views and opinions contained herein are of those named in the article and may not necessarily represent views expressed or reflected in other Schroders communications, strategies or funds. The sectors and securities shown above are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be considered a recommendation to buy or sell. This communication is marketing material.
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cityam--2020-04-29--Waitrose hires ex-Sainsbury's director as new boss

Waitrose has appointed former Sainsbury ’ s buying director James Bailey as its new boss to steer the supermarket through the coronavirus crisis .
Bailey , who worked for Sainsbury ’ s for 18 years , will join the John Lewis Partnership as an executive director today and will be responsible for managing the supermarket ’ s response to the coronavirus pandemic .
He will replace former Waitrose boss Rob Collins who stepped down this year amid a shake up of the partnership ’ s management structure .
The restructuring involved replacing the separate management boards for John Lewis and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The search for an executive director for John Lewis ’ department stores is underway .
The struggling retailer could close some stores permanently following the coronavirus lockdown , it was reported last week .
John Lewis Partnership chairman Sharon White has accelerated a strategic review into the business , which will now be completed by the end of the summer .
White said today : “ These new executive director roles at Waitrose and John Lewis will allow us to get the best of both worlds out of our new management structure @ @ @ @ @ @ @ impose stricter coronavirus measures in supermarkets “ We ’ ll have all the benefits of bringing together activities that are best organised pan-Partnership and reducing duplication while still recognising that there are important differences in the way you run a department store and a supermarket.
” Bailey said : “ Waitrose is the UK ’ s best supermarket and it ’ s a privilege to join the team .
”

Waitrose hires ex-Sainsbury’s director as new boss
Waitrose has appointed former Sainsbury’s buying director James Bailey as its new boss to steer the supermarket through the coronavirus crisis.
Bailey, who worked for Sainsbury’s for 18 years, will join the John Lewis Partnership as an executive director today and will be responsible for managing the supermarket’s response to the coronavirus pandemic.
He will replace former Waitrose boss Rob Collins who stepped down this year amid a shake up of the partnership’s management structure.
The restructuring involved replacing the separate management boards for John Lewis and Waitrose to create a single executive team.
The search for an executive director for John Lewis’ department stores is underway. The struggling retailer could close some stores permanently following the coronavirus lockdown, it was reported last week.
John Lewis Partnership chairman Sharon White has accelerated a strategic review into the business, which will now be completed by the end of the summer.
White said today: “These new executive director roles at Waitrose and John Lewis will allow us to get the best of both worlds out of our new management structure.
“We’ll have all the benefits of bringing together activities that are best organised pan-Partnership and reducing duplication while still recognising that there are important differences in the way you run a department store and a supermarket.”
Bailey said: “Waitrose is the UK’s best supermarket and it’s a privilege to join the team.”


cityam--2020-04-29--SMMT: UK car production falls 38 per cent, ten times worse than Brexit drops

The coronavirus crisis hammered British car manufacturing in March , with the total number of vehicles produced falling 37.6 per cent compared to a year ago .
According to the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders ( SMMT ) , just 78,767 vehicles left factory gates in the month , some 47,428 fewer than the previous year , as the coronavirus crisis caused UK car plants to close .
Read more : Nissan set for first loss since 2008 financial crisis By comparison , at the height of Brexit uncertainty in October , car production fell a mere 3.8 per @ @ @ @ @ @ @ declined 36.8 per cent , while exports fell 37.8 per cent as the pandemic forced showrooms to close around the world .
In a rare bright spot , shipments to China increased by 2.3 per cent in the period as lockdown measures slowly started to lift .
Suspended production and shuttered showrooms have devastated the UK car market , with the latest data from Auto Analysis showing that the UK could lose 257,000 units this year if plants remain shut until mid-May .
This will cost the industry £8.2bn in total , 20 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ revenue .
The figures lay out in stark detail the damage the ongoing crisis is doing to the whole of the UK ’ s domestic car industry .
According to an SMMT survey , half of all car manufacturers in the UK are reporting that revenues have fallen by more than 50 per cent .
Over 60 per cent of the full-time car manufacturing workforce have been placed on the government ’ s job retention scheme .
Listen to our daily City View podcast as we chart the economic fallout and business impact @ @ @ @ @ @ @ although 26 per cent of firms have said they have cash reserves of less than three months , only 17 per cent of applicants have received funding from the government ’ s business interruption loans scheme .
Of those companies which have applied , 58 per cent have said that they are ineligible or unsuitable for funding .
Over half – 57 per cent – of all businesses responding to the SMMT ’ s survey said they plan to resume operations by mid-May but there are some key challenges that need to be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ executive Mike Hawes said : “ UK automotive is fundamentally strong but , as these figures show , it is being tested like never before , with each week of shutdown costing the sector and economy billions .
“ Government ’ s emergency measures are helping keep many companies afloat and thousands of people in jobs , but liquidity remains a major concern and will become even more stretched as the industry begins to restart .
“ To get production lines rolling , we need a package of measures that supports the entire @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with government , the workforce and wider stakeholders to unlock the sector in a safe and sustainable way ” .
The global car industry is currently undergoing the “ biggest crisis since the Second World War ” , said Ana Nicholls , director of industry operations at the Economist Intelligence Unit : “ In almost every market overall new vehicle sales slumped in March , with April likely to be even worse and future demand still very uncertain .
“ Even as production restarts , it is likely to be at relatively low @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for social distancing and because demand is so low .
“ We are not expecting a strong recovery , particularly in Europe and the US , although the Asian market should be more robust ” .

SMMT: UK car production falls 38 per cent, 10 times worse than Brexit drops
The coronavirus crisis hammered British car manufacturing in March, with the total number of vehicles produced falling 37.6 per cent compared to a year ago.
Just 78,767 vehicles left factory gates last month, according to the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT). That is 47,428 fewer than the previous year, as the coronavirus crisis caused UK car plants to close.
By comparison, at the height of Brexit uncertainty in October 2019, car production fell a comparatively fractional 3.8 per cent.
Output for the domestic UK car market declined 36.8 per cent, the SMMT said. And exports fell 37.8 per cent as the pandemic forced showrooms to close around the world.
In a rare bright spot, UK car producers’ shipments to China increased 2.3 per cent. The steady lifting of China lockdown measures proved to be the catalyst for that.
Suspended production and shuttered showrooms have devastated the UK car market. The latest data from Auto Analysis showing that the UK could lose 257,000 units this year if plants remain shut until mid-May.
This will cost the industry £8.2bn in total, 20 per cent of UK car makers combined revenue.
Car manufacturers running out of road
The figures lay out in stark detail the damage coronavirus is doing to the domestic UK car industry.
Half of all UK car manufacturers have suffered over 50 per cent drops in revenue, they told an SMMT survey.
Over 60 per cent of the full-time car manufacturing workforce have been placed on the government’s job retention scheme.
Listen to our daily City View podcast as we chart the economic fallout and business impact of the coronavirus pandemic.
Less than one in five UK car producers win CBILS loan
Over a quarter of firms have said they have cash reserves of less than three months. But only 17 per cent of applicants have received funding from the government’s business interruption loans scheme.
Of those companies which have applied, 58 per cent have said that they are ineligible or unsuitable for funding.
Over half – 57 per cent – of all businesses responding to the SMMT’s survey said they plan to resume operations by mid-May. But there are some key challenges that need to be overcome.
The SMMT’s chief executive Mike Hawes said: “UK automotive is fundamentally strong but, as these figures show, it is being tested like never before, with each week of shutdown costing the sector and economy billions.
“Government’s emergency measures are helping keep many companies afloat and thousands of people in jobs. But liquidity remains a major concern and will become even more stretched as the industry begins to restart.
“To get production lines rolling, we need a package of measures that supports the entire industry. We need coordination and collaboration with government, the workforce and wider stakeholders to unlock the sector in a safe and sustainable way”.
UK car industry ‘faces biggest crisis’ since Second World War
The global car industry is currently undergoing the “biggest crisis since the Second World War”, said Ana Nicholls, director of industry operations at the Economist Intelligence Unit.
“In almost every market overall new vehicle sales slumped in March, with April likely to be even worse and future demand still very uncertain.
“Even as production restarts, it is likely to be at relatively low levels, both because of the need for social distancing and because demand is so low.
“We are not expecting a strong recovery, particularly in Europe and the US, although the Asian market should be more robust”.


cityam--2020-04-29--Ad spend to suffer largest ever annual fall as Covid-19 wipes £4bn off market

UK advertising spend is set to crash by more than £4bn this year as marketing activity grinds to a halt during the coronavirus crisis , marking the sharpest annual fall on record .
Total expenditure is forecast at just £21.1bn for 2020 , more than £4bn — or 16.7 per cent — lower than last year , according to industry figures published today .
The figures mark a grim revision of previous projections , which had forecast growth of 5.2 per cent this year to more than £26bn .
The sharp downturn , sparked by the Covid-19 outbreak , marks @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in 1962 and will bring to an end 10 consecutive years of market growth .
Last year UK ad spend grew 6.9 per cent to pass £25bn , according to the new figures from the Advertising Association ( AA ) and Warc .
While the market is expected to return to growth in 2021 with a rise of 13.6 per cent , absolute levels of investment are still expected to lag behind last year ’ s figures .
AA chief executive Stephen Woodford told City A.M. that while the figures were unsurprising in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it was the speed of the collapse that was alarming .
“ The sector has suffered a double whammy of a global shutdown as well as a domestic one , ” he added .
Woodford warned it could take two or three years for advertising spend to return to last year ’ s level .
The figures showed ad spend is set to decline across all formats although online and digital , which have dominated the market in recent years , will drop less sharply than traditional media .
Search and online display @ @ @ @ @ @ @ per cent in 2019 , are both set to decline more than 12 per cent this year .
TV is also set to drop almost 20 per cent as broadcasters fail to sell slots despite a sharp rise in viewing figures and strong recent performance for video on-demand services such as All4 and ITV Hub .
Social distancing measures put in place by the government will hit the out-of-home and cinema sectors particularly hard , with falls of 19 per cent and 33 per cent respectively .
However , these formats are also @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2021 , with cinema expected to be boosted by a backlog of blockbuster hits .
Publisher revenue , which has been in steady decline for several years , is slated to fall even more rapidly this year , though a return to growth is expected next year .
“ This virus-induced recession is different to previous downturns in that the impact has been both swift and sharp across all media , ” said James McDonald , head of data content at Warc .
“ The deterioration of advertising trade , we believe , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and third quarters of this year , though the aftershocks are likely to last into the fourth quarter and early 2021.
” The AA is holding bi-weekly calls with ministers as it looks to reactivate growth across the UK ’ s advertising industry , which has secured its status as one of Britain ’ s key service exports .
The trade body has called for a tax credit scheme for marketing and advertising services to make it cheaper for companies to continue advertising — a concern that is particularly relevant to small businesses @ @ @ @ @ @ @ provide a phased-down extension of the job retention scheme when lockdown ends to avoid a wave of redundancies from companies with cashflow problems .
In particular , the AA said priority should be given to the TV production sector as a complete shutdown in filming has crippled supply of adverts as well as programmes .
Read more : Gambling firms pull TV and radio advertising during Covid-19 lockdown “ The current quarter will be a tremendously tough time for many businesses across our industry , ” Woodford said .
“ We are acutely @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with government and officials , so that they get the best support possible .
”

Ad spend to suffer largest ever annual fall as Covid-19 wipes £4bn off market
UK advertising spend is set to crash by more than £4bn this year as marketing activity grinds to a halt during the coronavirus crisis, marking the sharpest annual fall on record.
Total expenditure is forecast at just £21.1bn for 2020, more than £4bn — or 16.7 per cent — lower than last year, according to industry figures published today.
The figures mark a grim revision of previous projections, which had forecast growth of 5.2 per cent this year to more than £26bn.
The sharp downturn, sparked by the Covid-19 outbreak, marks the worst annual fall since records began in 1962 and will bring to an end 10 consecutive years of market growth.
Last year UK ad spend grew 6.9 per cent to pass £25bn, according to the new figures from the Advertising Association (AA) and Warc.
While the market is expected to return to growth in 2021 with a rise of 13.6 per cent, absolute levels of investment are still expected to lag behind last year’s figures.
AA chief executive Stephen Woodford told City A.M. that while the figures were unsurprising in light of the wider economic downturn, it was the speed of the collapse that was alarming.
“The sector has suffered a double whammy of a global shutdown as well as a domestic one,” he added.
Woodford warned it could take two or three years for advertising spend to return to last year’s level.
The figures showed ad spend is set to decline across all formats although online and digital, which have dominated the market in recent years, will drop less sharply than traditional media.
Search and online display ads, which grew more than 17 per cent in 2019, are both set to decline more than 12 per cent this year.
TV is also set to drop almost 20 per cent as broadcasters fail to sell slots despite a sharp rise in viewing figures and strong recent performance for video on-demand services such as All4 and ITV Hub.
Social distancing measures put in place by the government will hit the out-of-home and cinema sectors particularly hard, with falls of 19 per cent and 33 per cent respectively.
However, these formats are also set to make the quickest recoveries in 2021, with cinema expected to be boosted by a backlog of blockbuster hits.
Publisher revenue, which has been in steady decline for several years, is slated to fall even more rapidly this year, though a return to growth is expected next year.
“This virus-induced recession is different to previous downturns in that the impact has been both swift and sharp across all media,” said James McDonald, head of data content at Warc.
“The deterioration of advertising trade, we believe, will be focused primarily in the second and third quarters of this year, though the aftershocks are likely to last into the fourth quarter and early 2021.”
The AA is holding bi-weekly calls with ministers as it looks to reactivate growth across the UK’s advertising industry, which has secured its status as one of Britain’s key service exports.
The trade body has called for a tax credit scheme for marketing and advertising services to make it cheaper for companies to continue advertising — a concern that is particularly relevant to small businesses.
It also urged the government to provide a phased-down extension of the job retention scheme when lockdown ends to avoid a wave of redundancies from companies with cashflow problems.
In particular, the AA said priority should be given to the TV production sector as a complete shutdown in filming has crippled supply of adverts as well as programmes.
“The current quarter will be a tremendously tough time for many businesses across our industry,” Woodford said.
“We are acutely conscious of their predicament and working fast with government and officials, so that they get the best support possible.”


cityam--2020-04-29--Shoppers wary about life after lockdown as restrictions cost UK retailers £2.7bn a week

Most shoppers are wary about hitting the high street when the coronavirus lockdown is relaxed , the latest research indicated , as it was revealed that UK retailers have lost out on £2.7bn in sales each week .
The lockdown , which forced all non-essential UK retailers to close from 23 March , has cost the industry £2.7bn in lost non-food sales each week of the lockdown , totalling more than £13.5bn so far .
Read more : Coronavirus : UK retailers have worst month since 2008 Just 10 per cent of consumers said they would return to normality if @ @ @ @ @ @ @ when the current lockdown is due to be reviewed by the government .
In total , 40 per cent said they would be “ extremely cautious ” , 37 per cent said they would remain “ a bit cautious ” and 13 per cent said they would stay in lockdown .
More than a quarter of consumers surveyed by Retail Economics said the coronavirus outbreak would have a permanent impact on the way they shop .
The research published this morning indicates that the UK ’ s beleaguered high street is likely to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the coronavirus crisis .
Just five per cent of shoppers believe the restrictions will be completely lifted on 7 May , with 49 per cent saying the lockdown will be extended for a further three weeks .
A third of respondents expected some restrictions to start to ease in a week .
Retail Economics chief executive Richard Lim said : “ The road to recovery for the retail sector is likely to be slow and protracted as consumers feel uneasy about returning to normal life when restrictions ease .
Read more : @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ for UK retail sector “ Shoppers will put their safety first and will initially avoid shopping in crowded locations unless absolutely necessary .
“ A safe shopping environment will become a top priority for consumers , impacting their choice of whom to shop with and where .
This is likely to lead to more local shopping which avoids public transport and crowded destinations in enclosed spaces .
”

Shoppers wary about life after lockdown as restrictions cost UK retailers £2.7bn a week
Oxford Street during the UK coronavirus lockdown
Most shoppers are wary about hitting the high street when the coronavirus lockdown is relaxed, the latest research indicated, as it was revealed that UK retailers have lost out on £2.7bn in sales each week.
The lockdown, which forced all non-essential UK retailers to close from 23 March, has cost the industry £2.7bn in lost non-food sales each week of the lockdown, totalling more than £13.5bn so far.
Just 10 per cent of consumers said they would return to normality if restrictions were lifted on 7 May, when the current lockdown is due to be reviewed by the government.
In total, 40 per cent said they would be “extremely cautious”, 37 per cent said they would remain “a bit cautious” and 13 per cent said they would stay in lockdown.
More than a quarter of consumers surveyed by Retail Economics said the coronavirus outbreak would have a permanent impact on the way they shop.
The research published this morning indicates that the UK’s beleaguered high street is likely to face a slow recovery from the impact of the coronavirus crisis.
Just five per cent of shoppers believe the restrictions will be completely lifted on 7 May, with 49 per cent saying the lockdown will be extended for a further three weeks.
A third of respondents expected some restrictions to start to ease in a week.
Retail Economics chief executive Richard Lim said: “The road to recovery for the retail sector is likely to be slow and protracted as consumers feel uneasy about returning to normal life when restrictions ease.
“Shoppers will put their safety first and will initially avoid shopping in crowded locations unless absolutely necessary.
“A safe shopping environment will become a top priority for consumers, impacting their choice of whom to shop with and where. This is likely to lead to more local shopping which avoids public transport and crowded destinations in enclosed spaces.”


cityam--2020-04-29--London retail rents to drop as occupier demand falls

London retail rents are expected to dive this year as occupier demand has plummeted due to the coronavirus crisis , according to the latest research .
In the first quarter of the year , occupier demand for retail fell to a net balance of minus 75 per cent , while office space demand declined to minus 18 per cent .
Read more : Coronavirus : UK retailers have worst month since 2008 Secondary retail rents in London are expected to fall around 13.4 per cent over the next 12 months , while prime retail rents are forecast to drop nine @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in London properties continued to slip , falling to a net balance of 16 per cent .
Industrial space proved to be more resilient to the coronavirus crisis than retail or office properties , according to a survey by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors [ Rics ] .
Occupier demand for industrial space increased 11 per cent , and prime rents in the sector are expected to rise 2.1 per cent in the year ahead .
Research found that 15 per cent of respondents to the survey reported a jump in industrial @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Simon Rubinsohn said : “ The seismic nature of what is currently taking place in the commercial property sector should not be underestimated .
“ Structural changes already underway particularly around ecommerce will be exacerbated , hitting the high street hard .
“ But alongside this , the inevitable rise in agile working as businesses seek to build resilience against future pandemics will undoubtedly lead to a reassessment of demand for office space .
Read more : Coronavirus pandemic ‘ worse than financial crisis ’ for UK retail sector “ Against this backdrop @ @ @ @ @ @ @ engages with the industry to build a collaborative approach to addressing the challenges and help to facilitate the transformation of the commercial property estate to something that better reflects the needs of a twenty-first century economy and also the continuing shortfall of good quality housing across all tenures .
”

London retail rents to drop as occupier demand falls
Oxford Street during the UK coronavirus lockdown
London retail rents are expected to dive this year as occupier demand has plummeted due to the coronavirus crisis, according to the latest research.
In the first quarter of the year, occupier demand for retail fell to a net balance of minus 75 per cent, while office space demand declined to minus 18 per cent.
Secondary retail rents in London are expected to fall around 13.4 per cent over the next 12 months, while prime retail rents are forecast to drop nine per cent.
Meanwhile, investor enquiries in London properties continued to slip, falling to a net balance of 16 per cent.
Industrial space proved to be more resilient to the coronavirus crisis than retail or office properties, according to a survey by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors [Rics].
Occupier demand for industrial space increased 11 per cent, and prime rents in the sector are expected to rise 2.1 per cent in the year ahead. Research found that 15 per cent of respondents to the survey reported a jump in industrial space investor enquiries.
Rics chief economist Simon Rubinsohn said: “The seismic nature of what is currently taking place in the commercial property sector should not be underestimated.
“Structural changes already underway particularly around ecommerce will be exacerbated, hitting the high street hard.
“But alongside this, the inevitable rise in agile working as businesses seek to build resilience against future pandemics will undoubtedly lead to a reassessment of demand for office space.
“Against this backdrop, it is critical that the government engages with the industry to build a collaborative approach to addressing the challenges and help to facilitate the transformation of the commercial property estate to something that better reflects the needs of a twenty-first century economy and also the continuing shortfall of good quality housing across all tenures.”