cityam--2020-11-23--Estate agent chain Connells confirms £82m Countrywide takeover bid

Estate agent chain Connells has confirmed an £82m takeover bid for competitor Countrywide , saying a cash injection by private equity rival Alchemy Group would not go far enough to rescue the embattled firm .
Connells said this morning that it has completed its due diligence work on Countrywide and reconfirmed its offer price of 250p per share in cash .
Read more : Countrywide in takeover talks with rival estate agent Connells The company , which is a subsidiary of Skipton Building Society , said its investigation revealed that “ significant capital investment is required ” in excess of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
As a standalone business Countrywide , which owns Bairstow Eve and Hampton International , has “ potential to enter administration without a significant capital injection ” , Connells said .
It added that it needs sustained investment over the long-term and a strong management team to lead a turnaround plan .
Connells also identified a “ highly competitive environment ” and “ difficult and uncertain market conditions ” .
The making of a firm offer is now subject to board recommendation and shareholder support .
David Livesey , Connells group chief executive @ @ @ @ @ @ @ repeatedly been promised jam tomorrow and it has never been delivered .
“ There is no quick and easy fix for Countrywide .
Turning the business around , especially in unpredictable market conditions , will be a difficult , expensive and lengthy process .
“ Countrywide needs new ownership , not yet another speculative scheme that is based on hope rather than experience .
“ Our proposal gives Countrywide shareholders significant immediate upside in cash , at a 72 per cent premium to the undisturbed price , with none of the downside risks @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Countrywide shareholder to oppose £90m lifeline from private equity investor Countrywide cancelled a general meeting to vote on the Alchemy proposals earlier this month following Connells ’ offer .
The latest proposals come after rival group LSL abandoned a potential £500m merger with Countrywide in March , terminating a deal that would have created the UK ’ s biggest estate agent , amid market uncertainty due to the coronavirus pandemic .

Estate agent chain Connells confirms £82m Countrywide takeover bid
The deal follows a bidding battle between Connells and private equity firm Alchemy.
Estate agent chain Connells has confirmed an £82m takeover bid for competitor Countrywide, saying a cash injection by private equity rival Alchemy Group would not go far enough to rescue the embattled firm.
Connells said this morning that it has completed its due diligence work on Countrywide and reconfirmed its offer price of 250p per share in cash.
The company, which is a subsidiary of Skipton Building Society, said its investigation revealed that “significant capital investment is required” in excess of the £90m equity injection proposed by Alchemy.
As a standalone business Countrywide, which owns Bairstow Eve and Hampton International, has “potential to enter administration without a significant capital injection”, Connells said.
It added that it needs sustained investment over the long-term and a strong management team to lead a turnaround plan.
Connells also identified a “highly competitive environment” and “difficult and uncertain market conditions”.
The making of a firm offer is now subject to board recommendation and shareholder support.
David Livesey, Connells group chief executive, said: “Countrywide shareholders have repeatedly been promised jam tomorrow and it has never been delivered.
“There is no quick and easy fix for Countrywide. Turning the business around, especially in unpredictable market conditions, will be a difficult, expensive and lengthy process.
“Countrywide needs new ownership, not yet another speculative scheme that is based on hope rather than experience.
“Our proposal gives Countrywide shareholders significant immediate upside in cash, at a 72 per cent premium to the undisturbed price, with none of the downside risks of remaining independent.”
Countrywide cancelled a general meeting to vote on the Alchemy proposals earlier this month following Connells’ offer.
The latest proposals come after rival group LSL abandoned a potential £500m merger with Countrywide in March, terminating a deal that would have created the UK’s biggest estate agent, amid market uncertainty due to the coronavirus pandemic.


cityam--2020-11-23--Safe, sterile football is undermining Arsenal's progress under Mikel Arteta

It is little more than three months since Mikel Arteta and Arsenal swept to the FA Cup on a wave of optimism , but it feels a lot longer .
Victory at Wembley and a run of eight wins in 11 games appeared to confirm that , under their former captain , the Gunners were on the up again .
Now , after a tepid start to the new season that has gleaned just 11 points and nine goals from nine Premier League games , that optimism is dissipating .
Read more : Cover story : How the Premier League @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the empty seats In fact , some of the qualities that appeared to confirm Arteta as the right man for the job now appear to be holding them back .
It raises a few questions .
Was the rush to anoint him saviour too hasty , the returning hero too good a story to resist ?
Or have Arteta ’ s Arsenal merely strayed from the right path , soon to be righted again ?
Arsenal ’ s goalless draw with Leeds on Sunday was not typical as they were reduced to 10 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ easy enough to identify .
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang , scorer of 29 goals last term , has hit the net just four times .
Anecdotally , it seems as though they do not get enough players forward , leaving Aubameyang and Alexandre Lacazette often looking isolated .
Granit Xhaka and Dani Ceballos like to receive possession from the defence , but that can leave Arsenal absent in midfield .
The result is that their attacking output is poor : they rank 15th in the Premier League for both goals and shots .
Equally , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the team .
Only two teams in the division have conceded fewer goals , while they rank sixth for clean sheets .
They are eighth for clearances and second for clearances off the line .
Bernd Leno is a good goalkeeper , while Arsenal are particularly strong on the left of defence with impressive new signing Gabriel and the indefatigable Kieran Tierney .
Notable scalps , including the FA Cup final and subsequent defeats of Liverpool and Manchester United , confirm that Arsenal can defend .
That is no mean feat ; it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have been at the back .
That trait has not been eradicated , but this is tangible improvement .
But have defensive improvements come at the cost of attacking output ?
Has Arteta tipped the balance too far ?
That the Spaniard continues to switch between three and four-man defences and appears undecided on his best XI suggests he , too , is not happy .
Arteta clearly favours certain patterns of play — see the carbon copy goals Aubameyang scored against Chelsea , Liverpool and Fulham — but could he be too @ @ @ @ @ @ @ won over supporters fed up of sloppy play and ill discipline .
Mesut Ozil and Matteo Guendouzi have found out what that means , but is Arteta too strict ?
Clearly , something is not right .
The overwhelming characteristic of Arsenal lately is an abundance of sterile possession .
The numbers back that up .
They rank fifth for passes and seventh for touches , so they have plenty of the ball .
And they are 17th for being dispossessed , so they can keep it .
The problem , as their @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is that they struggle — or are reluctant to — to do much with it .
It is safe , low-risk football .
Maybe that is because they are set up too defensively .
Maybe Arteta ’ s instructions allow too little room for expression .
Maybe they have become scared to try things .
Maybe it is down to individual failure on the part of the players .
Arteta ’ s initial success shows that he is a good judge and will rightly buy him time to get his team back on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , that is not in question , and he deserves credit and faith .
But they are in danger of becoming even more of a cup team ; capable of big wins in one-off games but unable to despatch the rank and file .
Until they solve their attacking problems , the Champions League return that holds the key to Arsenal becoming a consistent force again will remain out of reach .

Safe, sterile football is undermining Arsenal’s progress under Mikel Arteta
Aubameyang has netted just four times this season as Mikel Arteta has struggled to get Arsenal scoring
It is little more than three months since Mikel Arteta and Arsenal swept to the FA Cup on a wave of optimism, but it feels a lot longer.
Victory at Wembley and a run of eight wins in 11 games appeared to confirm that, under their former captain, the Gunners were on the up again.
Now, after a tepid start to the new season that has gleaned just 11 points and nine goals from nine Premier League games, that optimism is dissipating.
In fact, some of the qualities that appeared to confirm Arteta as the right man for the job now appear to be holding them back.
It raises a few questions. Was the rush to anoint him saviour too hasty, the returning hero too good a story to resist?
Or have Arteta’s Arsenal merely strayed from the right path, soon to be righted again?
Arsenal’s goalless draw with Leeds on Sunday was not typical as they were reduced to 10 men, but recurring problems have been easy enough to identify.
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, scorer of 29 goals last term, has hit the net just four times.
Anecdotally, it seems as though they do not get enough players forward, leaving Aubameyang and Alexandre Lacazette often looking isolated.
Granit Xhaka and Dani Ceballos like to receive possession from the defence, but that can leave Arsenal absent in midfield.
The result is that their attacking output is poor: they rank 15th in the Premier League for both goals and shots.
Equally, it is clear where Arteta has improved the team.
Only two teams in the division have conceded fewer goals, while they rank sixth for clean sheets.
They are eighth for clearances and second for clearances off the line.
Bernd Leno is a good goalkeeper, while Arsenal are particularly strong on the left of defence with impressive new signing Gabriel and the indefatigable Kieran Tierney.
Notable scalps, including the FA Cup final and subsequent defeats of Liverpool and Manchester United, confirm that Arsenal can defend.
That is no mean feat; it is easy to forget how hapless they have been at the back. That trait has not been eradicated, but this is tangible improvement.
But have defensive improvements come at the cost of attacking output? Has Arteta tipped the balance too far?
That the Spaniard continues to switch between three and four-man defences and appears undecided on his best XI suggests he, too, is not happy.
Arteta clearly favours certain patterns of play — see the carbon copy goals Aubameyang scored against Chelsea, Liverpool and Fulham — but could he be too prescriptive?
Talk of “non-negotiables” won over supporters fed up of sloppy play and ill discipline. Mesut Ozil and Matteo Guendouzi have found out what that means, but is Arteta too strict?
Sterile possession
Clearly, something is not right. The overwhelming characteristic of Arsenal lately is an abundance of sterile possession.
The numbers back that up. They rank fifth for passes and seventh for touches, so they have plenty of the ball. And they are 17th for being dispossessed, so they can keep it.
The problem, as their lack of goals and shots shows, is that they struggle — or are reluctant to — to do much with it.
It is safe, low-risk football. Maybe that is because they are set up too defensively. Maybe Arteta’s instructions allow too little room for expression.
Maybe they have become scared to try things. Maybe it is down to individual failure on the part of the players.
Arteta’s initial success shows that he is a good judge and will rightly buy him time to get his team back on course.
Arsenal have improved under him, that is not in question, and he deserves credit and faith.
But they are in danger of becoming even more of a cup team; capable of big wins in one-off games but unable to despatch the rank and file.
Until they solve their attacking problems, the Champions League return that holds the key to Arsenal becoming a consistent force again will remain out of reach.


cityam--2020-11-23--MPs to grill social media platforms over anti-vax conspiracies

Social media firms are set to be hauled in front of MPs to answer questions about what they are doing to remove online misinformation about Covid-19 vaccines .
The DCMS sub-committee on online harms and disinformation will next month grill executives from Google , Facebook and Twitter amid concerns over the rise of so-called anti-vax conspiracy theories .
Read more : Labour calls for anti-vax conspiracy theories to be censored on social media Earlier this month the tech giants agreed a package of measures with the government in a bid to limit the spread of vaccine misinformation .
The platforms @ @ @ @ @ @ @ profit from anti-vax conspiracy theories and pledged to respond more quickly to harmful content .
“ It is very clear that there is a small window of opportunity to crack down now on misinformation put out there about vaccines that are intended to halt the spread of Covid-19 , ” said committee chair Julian Knight .
“ We want to talk to Google , Facebook and Twitter to find out how they are working to combat the presence of ‘ anti-vax ’ content on their platforms.
” Knight added that the threat of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ call ” to the government over its delayed online harms legislation .
Tech giants have come under fire in recent months over their failure to crack down on misleading content related to Covid-19 , including viral hoaxes about how to treat the virus and baseless claims that the pandemic was linked to the rollout of 5G .
Recent upbeat announcements from Pfizer , Moderna and Astrazeneca have raised hopes that a successful coronavirus vaccine could be insight .
But the government is now concerned that false claims circulating on social media could derail @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Read more : Social media firms to crack down on Covid-19 vaccine disinformation It comes amid growing questions over whether anti-vaxxers could be penalised as the economy reopens following the pandemic .
Top Tory MP Tom Tugendhat has said he could “ certainly see the day ” when people are refused entry into pubs and restaurants , and they may not be allowed to return to their work place until they have had the vaccine .
But a leading lawyer has warned these measures could result in expensive discrimination claims .

MPs to grill social media platforms over anti-vax conspiracies
Social media firms are set to be hauled in front of MPs to answer questions about what they are doing to remove online misinformation about Covid-19 vaccines.
The DCMS sub-committee on online harms and disinformation will next month grill executives from Google, Facebook and Twitter amid concerns over the rise of so-called anti-vax conspiracy theories.
Earlier this month the tech giants agreed a package of measures with the government in a bid to limit the spread of vaccine misinformation.
The platforms endorsed the principle that no company should profit from anti-vax conspiracy theories and pledged to respond more quickly to harmful content.
“It is very clear that there is a small window of opportunity to crack down now on misinformation put out there about vaccines that are intended to halt the spread of Covid-19,” said committee chair Julian Knight.
“We want to talk to Google, Facebook and Twitter to find out how they are working to combat the presence of ‘anti-vax’ content on their platforms.”
Knight added that the threat of vaccine misinformation should be a “wake-up call” to the government over its delayed online harms legislation.
Tech giants have come under fire in recent months over their failure to crack down on misleading content related to Covid-19, including viral hoaxes about how to treat the virus and baseless claims that the pandemic was linked to the rollout of 5G.
Recent upbeat announcements from Pfizer, Moderna and Astrazeneca have raised hopes that a successful coronavirus vaccine could be insight.
But the government is now concerned that false claims circulating on social media could derail efforts to carry out mass immunisation.
It comes amid growing questions over whether anti-vaxxers could be penalised as the economy reopens following the pandemic.
Top Tory MP Tom Tugendhat has said he could “certainly see the day” when people are refused entry into pubs and restaurants, and they may not be allowed to return to their work place until they have had the vaccine.
But a leading lawyer has warned these measures could result in expensive discrimination claims.


cityam--2020-11-23--Covid-19: Travel quarantine restrictions to be relaxed 'in time for Christmas'

Transport secretary Grant Shapps is set to scrap blanket travel quarantine restrictions in time for Christmas so that people can travel to high-risk “ red list ” countries to visit relatives .
Shapps will announce the changes to the controversial travel quarantine restrictions later today , according to the Telegraph .
Plans have been coming together for weeks to launch a ‘ test and release ’ scheme , that will let returning travellers reduce their self-isolation period once they test negative for Covid-19 after arrival back in the UK .
Read more : Quarantine period for UK travel arrivals set @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Shapps tells industry Under Shapps ’ new plan , from mid-December those returning from high-risk countries which do not have a a travel corridor will be able to order a Covid test , and if they test negative on the fifth day back in the UK , can be free .
Shares in airlines such as Easyjet , British Airways-owner IAG and travel giant Tui are up between 3.5 and 9.5 per cent in London this morning on the back of the news .
Since 10 July , business travellers and holiday makers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ upon arrival back into the UK if their destination was placed on the high-risk red-list .
A list of quarantine-free travel corridors , destinations deemed safe to travel to without the need to self-isolate on return , has changed as infection rates increased in Europe but fell elsewhere in the autumn .
The so-called ‘ green list ’ of travel corridors will still operate , indcating where it is safer – and , without the need to pay for PCR tests , cheaper – to travel to .
Under Shapps ’ plan the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ £130 and £180 .
Read more : Israel and Sri Lanka added to quarantine free travel corridors list However , many countries around still deem the UK as a “ high-risk ” country , effectively banning non-essential travel .
Others insist on evidence of a negative Covid test , meaning PCR tests will need to be ordered and paid of each end of a tourists ’ journey , adding hundreds of pounds to the cost of holidays and family reunions .
International holidays have since effectively banned since the second nationwide lockdown in @ @

Covid-19: Travel quarantine restrictions to be relaxed in time for Christmas
Returning travellers will have the option to pay for a PCR test and, if the test is negative, exit self-isolation after their fifth day back from “red-list” countries such as the US and South Africa (Photo by Jenny Evans/Getty Images)
Blanket travel quarantine restrictions will be relaxed from 15 December so people can travel to high-risk “red list” countries to visit relatives for Christmas.
After weeks of fierce interest, transport secretary Grant Shapps announced the changes to the current system overnight.
However, some airline bosses, such as Ryanair’s CEO Michael O’Leary, think the reforms could go further.
Under Shapps’ new plan, from mid-December those returning from high-risk countries which do not have a a travel corridor will be able to order a Covid test, and if they test negative on the fifth day back in the UK, can be free.
✈ TEST TO RELEASE FOR INTERNATIONAL ARRIVALS ✈
We’re cutting the self-isolation period by two thirds from 15 DECEMBER for passengers arriving into England. Taking a privately provided #COVID test on day five & receiving a negative result will end self-isolation. pic.twitter.com/2Q6wqZ6XrN — Rt Hon Grant Shapps MP (@grantshapps) November 24, 2020
The decision to allow testing after a five day quarantine period was taken because health experts concluded that the likelihood of detection under a day seven test is not significantly better than a test on the fifth day.
However, tests taken on the fifth day give materially better results than those on taken on the day of arrival itself.
Countries such as Germany and Iceland have been using a similar five day “test to release” system since the summer.
However, although most people start showing symptoms of the disease after five or six days, the incubation period can last up to 14.
Since 10 July, business travellers and holiday makers have risked needing to self-isolate for 14 days upon arrival back into the UK if their destination was placed on the high-risk red-list.
A list of quarantine-free travel corridors, destinations deemed safe to travel to without the need to self-isolate on return, has changed as infection rates increased in Europe but fell elsewhere in the autumn.
The so-called ‘green list’ of travel corridors will still operate, indicating where it is safer – and, without the need to pay for PCR tests, cheaper – to travel to.
Under Shapps’ plan, the private tests are expected to cost between £65 and £120.
Shapps said: “Our new testing strategy will allow us to travel more freely, see loved ones and drive international business. By giving people the choice to test on day five, we are also supporting the travel industry as it continues to rebuild out of the pandemic.”
Shares rise but airlines call for further steps
Shares in air transport companies Tui, Easyjet and BA owner IAG are up 13 per cent, 6.1 per cent, and 2.1 per cent respectively today.
Airlines UK, the trade body for British carriers, welcomed the announcement, but saying that it would “begin the process of opening up international travel and restarting UK aviation”.
But, said chief executive Tim Alderslade, the government needs to go further and put in place “a pre-departure or domestic testing regime that can remove safely the need for self-isolation altogether, as quickly as possible”.
Ryanair boss O’Leary told the BBC this morning quarantine was “a fig leaf” but testing travellers before they leave their holiday destination would be better than after they arrive back into the UK.
Further good news on Covid-19 vaccine trials, this time from AstraZeneca, also boosted leisure shares.
Virgin Atlantic chief exec Shai Weiss agreed, saying: “Moving to a pre-departure regime, supported by latest independent evidence, would be twice as effective as quarantine.
“Passengers should be able to take a test from up to 72 hours before departure, including a rapid test at the airport on the day of departure.
“The only way to fully reopen vital trading and travel links, support the UK’s economic recovery and protect more than 500,000 jobs supported by aviation, is to move to a robust pre-departure testing regime to safely replace quarantine as soon as possible”.
Southend airport’s Glyn Jones also hit out at the scheme over the cost of the tests, saying that many short-haul flights were cheaper than the £65 to £120 being reported.
“It is simply not viable for many hard working families”, he said.
Airports to receive long-awaited relief
Ministers also announced that the UK’s airports would receive new financial support after months of pleading from the sector.
The support, which will become available in the new year, will be equivalent to the business rates liabilities of each airport, and capped at £8m for each site.
Airports in England and Wales have been asking for business rates relief – which has already been received by their Scottish counterparts – for six months.
Chancellor Rishi Sunak said: “The aviation industry is vital to our economy – creating jobs and driving growth- which is why we have supported them throughout this crisis through the job retention scheme, loans and tax deferrals.
“This new package of support for airports, alongside a new testing regime for international arrivals, will help the sector take off once again as we build back better from the pandemic.”
Airport Operators’ Association chief exec Karen Dee said: “We are pleased that the Government has listened to our calls for business rates relief for airports in England.
“The measures announced today will provide much-needed support to many embattled airports, helping them through the challenging months ahead.
“However, not all airports will see full business rates relief and all of aviation will continue to face considerable challenges over the coming months and years. We will therefore need to continue to work with Government on what other steps can be taken to safeguard the UK’s aviation businesses.”
But for some airports, £8m is just a drop in the well. Heathrow, for example, is facing a business rates bill of £120m for the current year.


cityam--2020-11-23--Vodafone brings forward net zero carbon pledge to 2040

Vodafone today pledged to reduce its total global carbon emissions to net zero by 2040 — ten years earlier than originally planned .
The telecoms group said it will eliminate all carbon emissions from its business activities and purchase all energy from renewable sources by 2030 .
Read more : SSE joins net zero push with 2050 emissions pledge It has also pledged to halve carbon emissions from joint ventures , supply chain purchases , the use of its products and business travel by the same date .
The plans are in line with the most ambitious goal of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ aims to limit global warming to 1.5°C .
Vodafone vowed to eliminate emissions completely by 2040 , bringing forward its original commitment to reach net zero across its carbon footprint by 2050 .
“ Vodafone believes in leading by example , so today we have pledged to become fully ‘ net zero ’ by 2040 and the Science Based Targets initiative has confirmed that our 2030 carbon targets are in line with the most ambitious goal of the Paris Agreement , ” said chief executive Nick Read .
“ We are committed to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ efficiency , renewable energy supply , reducing our network waste and new environmental criteria when we select suppliers .
Vodafone will also enable our customers to reduce their environmental footprint through use of our services , including the Internet of Things.
” The FTSE 100 telecoms firm is the latest business to push ahead with net zero pledges amid a push to improve sustainability .
Over 1,000 companies globally have already signed up to the Race to Zero campaign , placing their operations in line with efforts to limit global warming to 1.5 @ @

Vodafone brings forward net zero carbon pledge to 2040
Vodafone today pledged to reduce its total global carbon emissions to net zero by 2040 — ten years earlier than originally planned.
The telecoms group said it will eliminate all carbon emissions from its business activities and purchase all energy from renewable sources by 2030.
It has also pledged to halve carbon emissions from joint ventures, supply chain purchases, the use of its products and business travel by the same date.
The plans are in line with the most ambitious goal of the Paris Agreement on climate change, which aims to limit global warming to 1.5°C.
Vodafone vowed to eliminate emissions completely by 2040, bringing forward its original commitment to reach net zero across its carbon footprint by 2050.
“Vodafone believes in leading by example, so today we have pledged to become fully ‘net zero’ by 2040 and the Science Based Targets initiative has confirmed that our 2030 carbon targets are in line with the most ambitious goal of the Paris Agreement,” said chief executive Nick Read.
“We are committed to reduce our carbon footprint through improved energy efficiency, renewable energy supply, reducing our network waste and new environmental criteria when we select suppliers. Vodafone will also enable our customers to reduce their environmental footprint through use of our services, including the Internet of Things.”
The FTSE 100 telecoms firm is the latest business to push ahead with net zero pledges amid a push to improve sustainability.
Over 1,000 companies globally have already signed up to the Race to Zero campaign, placing their operations in line with efforts to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees.


cityam--2020-11-23--UK considers removing British judges from Hong Kong high court

Foreign secretary Dominic Raab is considering plans to remove British judges from Hong Kong ’ s high court in response to the region ’ s freedom of speech clampdown .
Raab wrote in a new Foreign Office report that he and justice secretary Robert Buckland were reviewing “ whether it continues to be appropriate for British judges to sit as non-permanent judges on the Hong Kong Court of Final Appeal ” .
Read more : The British government must take a stand for freedom and democracy in Hong Kong Raab has said on multiple occasions that new national security legislation @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the Sino-British treaty signed by the UK and China when the region ’ s handover was organised .
The laws make it illegal to criticise the Chinese government and prohibits things like the mocking the Chinese national anthem .
The legislation also removes the independence of the Hong Kong judiciary , with the pro-Beijing chief executive of Hong Kong Carrie Lam able to handpick judges for all cases charged under the national security laws .
Before the Open newsletter : Start your day with the City View podcast and key market data @ @ @ @ @ @ @ report , out today , that the new laws were “ already reducing the extent to which the people of Hong Kong are able to exercise their fundamental rights and freedoms ” .
“ It has damaged freedom of expression in academia , schools and libraries , including through the removal of textbooks and other books containing certain political content , ” he said .
“ It has been used as the basis for a raid on a leading Hong Kong newspaper and the arrest of its owner.
” Removing British judges from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a further break in relations with the former colony and the fourth punitive action by the UK government in response to the security legislation .
Read more : UK declares China has broken joint treaty over expulsion of Hong Kong MPs The UK is allowing more than 2m Hong Kongers to immigrate to the UK on bespoke long-term visas and Raab has banned sales of arms into the region .
The UK ’ s extradition treaty with Hong Kong was also cancelled earlier this year .

UK considers removing British judges from Hong Kong high court
The state departments added that businesses and individuals should be wary of the potential consequences of engaging with sanctioned individuals or organisations.(Photo by Anthony Kwan/Getty Images)
Foreign secretary Dominic Raab is considering plans to remove British judges from Hong Kong’s high court in response to the region’s freedom of speech clampdown.
Raab wrote in a new Foreign Office report that he and justice secretary Robert Buckland were reviewing “whether it continues to be appropriate for British judges to sit as non-permanent judges on the Hong Kong Court of Final Appeal”.
Raab has said on multiple occasions that new national security legislation imposed on Hong Kong is a breach of the Sino-British treaty signed by the UK and China when the region’s handover was organised.
The laws make it illegal to criticise the Chinese government and prohibits things like the mocking the Chinese national anthem.
The legislation also removes the independence of the Hong Kong judiciary, with the pro-Beijing chief executive of Hong Kong Carrie Lam able to handpick judges for all cases charged under the national security laws.
Before the Open newsletter: Start your day with the City View podcast and key market data
The foreign secretary said in the new report, out today, that the new laws were “already reducing the extent to which the people of Hong Kong are able to exercise their fundamental rights and freedoms”.
“It has damaged freedom of expression in academia, schools and libraries, including through the removal of textbooks and other books containing certain political content,” he said.
“It has been used as the basis for a raid on a leading Hong Kong newspaper and the arrest of its owner.”
Removing British judges from the Hong Kong high court would mark a further break in relations with the former colony and the fourth punitive action by the UK government in response to the security legislation.
The UK is allowing more than 2m Hong Kongers to immigrate to the UK on bespoke long-term visas and Raab has banned sales of arms into the region.
The UK’s extradition treaty with Hong Kong was also cancelled earlier this year.


cityam--2020-11-23--UK business activity shrinks as fresh lockdown hits services sector

UK business activity contracted this month as the rollout of fresh lockdown measures took its toll on the services sector .
The IHS Markit/CIPS UK Composite Purchasing Managers ’ Index ( PMI ) dropped to 47.4 in November , according to initial readings , down from 52.1 in October .
Read more : Eurozone business activity shrink sharply in November as lockdowns bite The figures represent a five-month low and the first time since June that the index has fallen below the crucial 50.0 growth threshold .
However , the data was well above the consensus of 42.5 .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the fourth quarter after Prime Minister Boris Johnson implemented a second four-week national lockdown , which is due to end of 2 December .
But the data indicates that the economic impact of the second lockdown is significant less severe than the initial measures at the start of the crisis .
UK PMI sank to a record low of just 13.8 in April and improved only to 30.0 in May .
Economists said the improved data for November was likely due to an increased number of businesses continuing to trade in some form @ @ @ @ @ @ @ services .
Nevertheless , the closure of pubs , bars and restaurants still dragged down the services sector , which saw its PMI level drop to 45.8 from 51.4 last month .
Job losses in the private sector also accelerated this month , with the composite employment index falling to 42.1 from 43.4 .
The figures show that chancellor Rishi Sunak ’ s decision to extent the furlough scheme to the end of the first quarter has done little to stem the flow of redundancies .
The index authors said they expected unemployment @ @ @ @ @ @ @ roughly 6.5 per cent in the spring .
Manufacturing bucked the overall downward trend , with PMI for this sector rising to 55.2 — the joint highest level since 2018 .
The figures reflects both stockpiling by EU customers ahead of a potential trade shock when the Brexit transition period ends in January and disruption at UK ports , which led to delays in the supply chain .
But manufacturing output is expected to fall in the first quarter even if a Brexit trade deal is reached , as overseas customers have brought @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this year .
There were some bright spots , however , and the survey found managers were at their most optimistic since March 2015 , largely thanks to progress in the development of Covid-19 vaccines .
Read more : Astrazeneca and University of Oxford vaccine 70 per cent effective “ Despite the unknowns , the hope offered by the vaccine breakthroughs could be powerful in helping to curb the pace of redundancies as firms have more incentive to keep staff on furlough with the prospect of an improving picture by March , ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Lloyds Bank .
“ Nevertheless , while the outlook is looking brighter for next year , there ’ s still a challenging winter to endure , and so businesses will likely remain cautious amid the ongoing uncertainty .
”

UK business activity shrinks as fresh lockdown hits services sector
The S&P Global/CIPS UK services PMI survey showed a reading of 48.7 in January, down from 49.9 in December.
UK business activity contracted this month as the rollout of fresh lockdown measures took its toll on the services sector.
The IHS Markit/CIPS UK Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) dropped to 47.4 in November, according to initial readings, down from 52.1 in October.
The figures represent a five-month low and the first time since June that the index has fallen below the crucial 50.0 growth threshold.
However, the data was well above the consensus of 42.5.
The UK economy is expected to contract in the fourth quarter after Prime Minister Boris Johnson implemented a second four-week national lockdown, which is due to end of 2 December.
But the data indicates that the economic impact of the second lockdown is significant less severe than the initial measures at the start of the crisis.
UK PMI sank to a record low of just 13.8 in April and improved only to 30.0 in May.
Economists said the improved data for November was likely due to an increased number of businesses continuing to trade in some form, for example through click and collect services.
Nevertheless, the closure of pubs, bars and restaurants still dragged down the services sector, which saw its PMI level drop to 45.8 from 51.4 last month.
Job losses in the private sector also accelerated this month, with the composite employment index falling to 42.1 from 43.4.
The figures show that chancellor Rishi Sunak’s decision to extent the furlough scheme to the end of the first quarter has done little to stem the flow of redundancies.
The index authors said they expected unemployment to continue rising to a peak of roughly 6.5 per cent in the spring.
Manufacturing bucked the overall downward trend, with PMI for this sector rising to 55.2 — the joint highest level since 2018.
The figures reflects both stockpiling by EU customers ahead of a potential trade shock when the Brexit transition period ends in January and disruption at UK ports, which led to delays in the supply chain.
But manufacturing output is expected to fall in the first quarter even if a Brexit trade deal is reached, as overseas customers have brought forward activity to the final quarter of this year.
There were some bright spots, however, and the survey found managers were at their most optimistic since March 2015, largely thanks to progress in the development of Covid-19 vaccines.
“Despite the unknowns, the hope offered by the vaccine breakthroughs could be powerful in helping to curb the pace of redundancies as firms have more incentive to keep staff on furlough with the prospect of an improving picture by March,” said Rhys Herbert, senior economist at Lloyds Bank.
“Nevertheless, while the outlook is looking brighter for next year, there’s still a challenging winter to endure, and so businesses will likely remain cautious amid the ongoing uncertainty.”


cityam--2020-11-23--November 2020 a month full of takeaways

November 2020 a month full of takeaways

It ’ s now over a week since Joe Biden was declared the winner of the US 2020 elections .
The uncertainty leading up to 3rd November was palpable and pervasive and placed a ceiling on significant capital gains .
However , the week of the election was superb for risk markets , even as votes were counted .
The S & P 500 appreciated 7.3 % , the Russell 2000 increased 6.9 % , the NASDAQ was up 9 % and the Dow Industrials also ended the week 6.9 % higher .
At the same time the Dollar Index @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 1.9 % .
Clearly , the market was relieved to get the election over and done with .
Moreover , Biden is the clear winner and legal challenges from President Trump are unlikely to alter this .
This is important as it reinforces a sense of stability that there is an obvious leader that will lead the USA forward and play an important role in the global economic recovery .
A Biden win in this climate is well-timed given the announcement last week by Pfizer and BioNTech that their trials show a potential @ @ @ @ @ @ @ preventing COVID-19 .
This was boosted further by Moderna ’ s confirmation of a 94.5 % effectiveness for its vaccine in trial data .
However , Biden ’ s leadership here is also important to cement market relief and to date , he has assembled a new and impressive COVID-19 task force , led by three highly qualified co-chairs David Kessler , Vivek Murthy , and Marcella Nunez-Smith .
Other members are specialists in their own right and bring a high level of competence to the table .
Markets are forward looking .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ COVID-19 will be discounted into market prices as participants look for signs of a return to a pre-coronavirus world and economic activity .
In this regard , the Federal reserves unlimited QE program is supportive , and will likely be reinforced with expansionary fiscal policy in February .
This is important because of the lack of fiscal cohesion into the election was one of the reasons for the ceiling on stock prices .
On this note is also worth mentioning that the increase in the corporate tax rate from 21 % to 28 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ badly the economy and corporates were battered in 2020 .
This too will be seen as market supportive , at least in the medium term .
The Biden presidency will likely keep up the pressure on China but through a different approach .
Whilst Trump chose a unilateral stance , Biden will likely choose a multilateral strategy and enlist the help of allies in the trade dispute with China .
Moreover , whilst Biden may not be as protectionist as President Trump , the unwinding of Tariffs will likely be used in negotiation @ @ @ @ @ @ @ uncertainty into markets if tensions arise .
An interesting market dynamic may arise as the Biden presidency develops .
Democrats have already flagged big tech as being anti-competitive .
The prospects for this sector should be considered as it was the big tech companies that led the market off of the March lows .
If legislation is passed that will have a detrimental effect on the bottom lines of these companies there may be a rotation of leadership out of the NASDAQ and out of the FAANG stocks in particular .
Since the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ short-term rotation with capital heading towards the industrial sector .
Whether this becomes a trend or is just short-term in nature will be of interest and may reflect underlying structural changes as the US presidency changes hands .
Past performance is not indicative of future results .
Market Opinions : Any opinions , news , research , analyses , prices , other information , or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice .
The market commentary has not been prepared @ @ @ @ @ @ @ promote the independence of investment research , and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination .
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What is City Talk? City Talk allows marketers to connect directly with our audience by publishing content on cityam.com
November 2020 a month full of takeaways
Getty Images
It’s now over a week since Joe Biden was declared the winner of the US 2020 elections. The uncertainty leading up to 3rd November was palpable and pervasive and placed a ceiling on significant capital gains. However, the week of the election was superb for risk markets, even as votes were counted. The S&P 500 appreciated 7.3%, the Russell 2000 increased 6.9%, the NASDAQ was up 9% and the Dow Industrials also ended the week 6.9% higher. At the same time the Dollar Index, a proxy for risk, declined 1.9%.
Clearly, the market was relieved to get the election over and done with. Moreover, Biden is the clear winner and legal challenges from President Trump are unlikely to alter this. This is important as it reinforces a sense of stability that there is an obvious leader that will lead the USA forward and play an important role in the global economic recovery.
A Biden win in this climate is well-timed given the announcement last week by Pfizer and BioNTech that their trials show a potential vaccine which is 90% effective in preventing COVID-19. This was boosted further by Moderna’s confirmation of a 94.5% effectiveness for its vaccine in trial data. However, Biden’s leadership here is also important to cement market relief and to date, he has assembled a new and impressive COVID-19 task force, led by three highly qualified co-chairs David Kessler, Vivek Murthy, and Marcella Nunez-Smith. Other members are specialists in their own right and bring a high level of competence to the table.
Markets are forward looking. Therefore, progress in the fight against COVID-19 will be discounted into market prices as participants look for signs of a return to a pre-coronavirus world and economic activity. In this regard, the Federal reserves unlimited QE program is supportive, and will likely be reinforced with expansionary fiscal policy in February. This is important because of the lack of fiscal cohesion into the election was one of the reasons for the ceiling on stock prices. On this note is also worth mentioning that the increase in the corporate tax rate from 21% to 28% will likely be delayed given how badly the economy and corporates were battered in 2020. This too will be seen as market supportive, at least in the medium term.
The Biden presidency will likely keep up the pressure on China but through a different approach. Whilst Trump chose a unilateral stance, Biden will likely choose a multilateral strategy and enlist the help of allies in the trade dispute with China. Moreover, whilst Biden may not be as protectionist as President Trump, the unwinding of Tariffs will likely be used in negotiation. This may introduce a modicum of uncertainty into markets if tensions arise.
An interesting market dynamic may arise as the Biden presidency develops. Democrats have already flagged big tech as being anti-competitive. The prospects for this sector should be considered as it was the big tech companies that led the market off of the March lows. If legislation is passed that will have a detrimental effect on the bottom lines of these companies there may be a rotation of leadership out of the NASDAQ and out of the FAANG stocks in particular. Since the election, we have already seen a short-term rotation with capital heading towards the industrial sector. Whether this becomes a trend or is just short-term in nature will be of interest and may reflect underlying structural changes as the US presidency changes hands.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Market Opinions: Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. FXCM will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage.
74.74%of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider.
You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
FXCM is a leading provider of online foreign exchange (FX) trading, CFD trading, and related services. Founded in 1999, the company’s mission is to provide global traders with access to the world’s largest and most liquid market by offering innovative trading tools, hiring excellent trading educators, meeting strict financial standards and striving for the best online trading experience in the market. Clients have the advantage of mobile trading, one-click order execution and trading from real-time charts. In addition, FXCM offers educational courses on FX trading and provides trading tools, proprietary data and premium resources. FXCM Pro provides retail brokers, small hedge funds and emerging market banks access to wholesale execution and liquidity, while providing high and medium frequency funds access to prime brokerage services via FXCM Prime. FXCM is a Leucadia Company.
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. The products are intended for retail, professional and eligible counterparty clients. Retail clients who maintain account(s) with Forex Capital Markets Limited (“FXCM LTD”) could sustain a total loss of deposited funds but are not subject to subsequent payment obligations beyond the deposited funds but professional clients and eligible counterparty clients could sustain losses in excess of deposits. Clients who maintain account(s) with FXCM Australia Pty. Limited (“FXCM AU”), FXCM South Africa (PTY) Ltd (“FXCM ZA”) or FXCM Markets Limited (“FXCM Markets”) could sustain losses in excess of deposits. Prior to trading any products offered by FXCM LTD, inclusive of all EU branches, FXCM AU, FXCM ZA, any affiliates of aforementioned firms, or other firms within the FXCM group of companies [collectively the “FXCM Group”], carefully consider your financial situation and experience level. If you decide to trade products offered by FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), you must read and understand the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, and Terms of Business. Our FX and CFD prices are set by us, are not made on an Exchange and are not governed under the Financial Advisory and Intermediary Services Act. The FXCM Group may provide general commentary, which is not intended as investment advice and must not be construed as such. Seek advice from a separate financial advisor. The FXCM Group assumes no liability for errors, inaccuracies or omissions; does not warrant the accuracy, completeness of information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these materials. Read and understand the Terms and Conditions on the FXCM Group’s websites prior to taking further action.


cityam--2020-11-24--We need a British Development Bank to level-up the regions

Tomorrow , chancellor Rishi Sunak will address the nation and announce the government ’ s National Infrastructure Strategy .
While the focus has primarily been on what infrastructure investments and tax reforms might be on the horizon , there is an opportunity here to think bigger .
What Britain needs is a new financing institution , like a British Development Bank , to put turbochargers under this parliament ’ s major challenge : rebalancing the economy .
While nowhere has been completely immune from the impact of the pandemic , research from Oxford Economics shows that Covid-19 has hurt the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and cities in the regions the hardest .
Read more : Road pricing can level up the nation and take our outdated transport system into the twenty-first century The East Midlands in particular is considered the most “ structurally vulnerable ” area to coronavirus given its role as a manufacturing hub , while London and the South East are predicted to see the smallest declines in economic output .
The regional inequality we are seeing now follows decades of underinvestment in lagging parts of the country .
Since 2007 , infrastructure spending per @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the rate in the East Midlands and Yorkshire and the Humber .
According to Bank of England data , 25 per cent of all SME loans are lent in London , versus just 2.8 per cent in the North East and 3.5 per cent in Wales .
The question is not just what the problem is , but how you fix it — and , crucially , how you pay for it .
In response to Covid-19 , we have seen unprecedented levels of state expenditure in order to safeguard the economy — @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it is crucial that this government maintains its reputation for fiscal prudence and looks to the private sector to help bolster financing .
We can not just look to the taxpayer to improve infrastructure and level up the country .
We need to mobilise private finance .
To do this , the chancellor should launch a British Development Bank .
This would do three key things .
First , it would mobilise private capital to multiply government funds by a factor of four , meaning that for every £1 of government spend , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ unlocked .
Second , it could have a mandate to specifically target investment in the regions , ranging from SME lending to capital investment in development projects .
Finally , it would have the power to issue regional bonds , ringfencing funding for regional development in the areas of the country where it is needed most .
The idea of a British Development Bank is modelled off Kreditanstalt für Wiederaufbau ( KfW ) in Germany .
Since 1991 , KfW has been responsible for almost one out of every 10 euros invested in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ gap in disposable incomes between areas of the country by over 50 per cent .
This tried and tested model has achieved such success not by using taxpayers ’ money , but by mobilising large amounts of private capital for infrastructure and businesses .
Its track record of successful investment means that KfW now receives 99 per cent of new funding from capital markets , not from the German taxpayer .
Our own country has for decades suffered from disconnected towns , villages and cities , weak capital formation , and an infrastructure @ @ @ @ @ @ @ regional productivity and earnings .
The coronavirus pandemic has only amplified these problems .
A British Development Bank is part of the answer , boosting investment in regional economic development and leveraging much greater levels of private capital in the process .
The chancellor should be bold and make this the centrepiece when he announces the National Infrastructure Strategy tomorrow .
Read more : Need a way out of recession ?
Look to the stars

We need a British Development Bank to level-up the regions
The regional inequality we are seeing now follows decades of underinvestment in lagging parts of the country
Tomorrow, chancellor Rishi Sunak will address the nation and announce the government’s National Infrastructure Strategy.
While the focus has primarily been on what infrastructure investments and tax reforms might be on the horizon, there is an opportunity here to think bigger. What Britain needs is a new financing institution, like a British Development Bank, to put turbochargers under this parliament’s major challenge: rebalancing the economy.
While nowhere has been completely immune from the impact of the pandemic, research from Oxford Economics shows that Covid-19 has hurt the economies of the UK’s towns and cities in the regions the hardest.
The East Midlands in particular is considered the most “structurally vulnerable” area to coronavirus given its role as a manufacturing hub, while London and the South East are predicted to see the smallest declines in economic output.
The regional inequality we are seeing now follows decades of underinvestment in lagging parts of the country. Since 2007, infrastructure spending per capita in London has been over triple the rate in the East Midlands and Yorkshire and the Humber. According to Bank of England data, 25 per cent of all SME loans are lent in London, versus just 2.8 per cent in the North East and 3.5 per cent in Wales.
The question is not just what the problem is, but how you fix it — and, crucially, how you pay for it.
In response to Covid-19, we have seen unprecedented levels of state expenditure in order to safeguard the economy — and rightly so. But going forward it is crucial that this government maintains its reputation for fiscal prudence and looks to the private sector to help bolster financing. We cannot just look to the taxpayer to improve infrastructure and level up the country. We need to mobilise private finance.
To do this, the chancellor should launch a British Development Bank. This would do three key things.
First, it would mobilise private capital to multiply government funds by a factor of four, meaning that for every £1 of government spend, £3 of private capital spend will be unlocked.
Second, it could have a mandate to specifically target investment in the regions, ranging from SME lending to capital investment in development projects.
Finally, it would have the power to issue regional bonds, ringfencing funding for regional development in the areas of the country where it is needed most.
The idea of a British Development Bank is modelled off Kreditanstalt für Wiederaufbau (KfW) in Germany. Since 1991, KfW has been responsible for almost one out of every 10 euros invested in East Germany, helping to reduce the gap in disposable incomes between areas of the country by over 50 per cent.
This tried and tested model has achieved such success not by using taxpayers’ money, but by mobilising large amounts of private capital for infrastructure and businesses. Its track record of successful investment means that KfW now receives 99 per cent of new funding from capital markets, not from the German taxpayer.
Our own country has for decades suffered from disconnected towns, villages and cities, weak capital formation, and an infrastructure financing gap, with knock-on implications for regional productivity and earnings. The coronavirus pandemic has only amplified these problems.
A British Development Bank is part of the answer, boosting investment in regional economic development and leveraging much greater levels of private capital in the process. The chancellor should be bold and make this the centrepiece when he announces the National Infrastructure Strategy tomorrow.
Main image credit: Getty


cityam--2020-11-24--UK economy to contract in November amid second Covid-19 lockdown

The UK economy is set to suffer a significant contraction this month after Prime Minister Boris Johnson imposed a second national coronavirus lockdown .
After six consecutive months of growth , the economy is expected to shrink 5.7 per cent in November , before recovering a marginal 0.3 per cent in December , according to analysis by PwC .
The UK had begun a cautious recovery following the shock of the initial Covid-19 lockdown , but fresh restrictions this month derailed growth and sparked a double-dip recession .
As a result , the fourth quarter is expected to deliver negative @ @ @ @ @ @ @ -3.3 per cent , with annual GDP set to fall by between 11.2 and 11.4 per cent .
But progress in global Covid-19 vaccine development has raised hopes that Britain will return to growth next year .
GDP growth is forecast to range between 3.4 per cent and six per cent , depending on the success of a vaccine rollout and whether the UK can secure a trade deal with the EU .
“ After a double dip , the economy should begin to rev up at the start of next year , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ economist at PwC .
“ While we initially anticipated that recovery would resemble a swoosh , we now envisage it being more of a W shape — albeit with a much smaller second drop .
“ Although we expect a boost to economic activity as vaccines progress and confidence builds in the first half of 2021 , the longer term outlook will very much depend on the nature and duration of further restriction measures and the outcomes of the UK-EU trade negotiation , which could weigh on growth.
” Although household spending remains @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the report was bullish about a retail recovery during the festive period .
While PwC ’ s latest consumer sentiment index showed a significant drop in confidence in November .
However , the announcement that shops will reopen after the national lockdown ends on 2 December means the high street could be given a pre-Christmas boost .
The figures also highlighted the rapid shift to online shopping as a result of the pandemic .
While it took seven years for online shopping to increase from 10 per cent to 20 per cent of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it took just two months to rise to 30 per cent by April .
“ Although the structural shift to online could mean good news for Christmas shopping and provides a safety net for retail even if lockdown or other restrictions remain in place , on balance the risks to Christmas spending remain skewed to the downside , ” said Hannah Audino , economist at PwC .
“ While we have high levels of involuntary saving , the extension of the furlough scheme , and positive news regarding a vaccine , the considerable @ @ @ @ @ @ @ plans are likely to weigh on spending intentions.
” But Audino added that the outlook for January sales spending was more positive , with rising optimism over a vaccine rollout and the possibility of bumper sales to offload unsold stock .

UK economy to contract in November amid second Covid-19 lockdown
After six consecutive months of growth, the UK economy is forecast to shrink in November
The UK economy is set to suffer a significant contraction this month after Prime Minister Boris Johnson imposed a second national coronavirus lockdown.
After six consecutive months of growth, the economy is expected to shrink 5.7 per cent in November, before recovering a marginal 0.3 per cent in December, according to analysis by PwC.
The UK had begun a cautious recovery following the shock of the initial Covid-19 lockdown, but fresh restrictions this month derailed growth and sparked a double-dip recession.
As a result, the fourth quarter is expected to deliver negative growth of between -2.1 per cent and -3.3 per cent, with annual GDP set to fall by between 11.2 and 11.4 per cent.
But progress in global Covid-19 vaccine development has raised hopes that Britain will return to growth next year.
GDP growth is forecast to range between 3.4 per cent and six per cent, depending on the success of a vaccine rollout and whether the UK can secure a trade deal with the EU.
“After a double dip, the economy should begin to rev up at the start of next year,” said Dr Jonathan Gillham, chief economist at PwC.
“While we initially anticipated that recovery would resemble a swoosh, we now envisage it being more of a W shape — albeit with a much smaller second drop.
“Although we expect a boost to economic activity as vaccines progress and confidence builds in the first half of 2021, the longer term outlook will very much depend on the nature and duration of further restriction measures and the outcomes of the UK-EU trade negotiation, which could weigh on growth.”
Although household spending remains 12 per cent below pre-pandemic levels, the report was bullish about a retail recovery during the festive period.
While PwC’s latest consumer sentiment index showed a significant drop in confidence in November. However, the announcement that shops will reopen after the national lockdown ends on 2 December means the high street could be given a pre-Christmas boost.
The figures also highlighted the rapid shift to online shopping as a result of the pandemic.
While it took seven years for online shopping to increase from 10 per cent to 20 per cent of total retail sales in February 2020, it took just two months to rise to 30 per cent by April.
“Although the structural shift to online could mean good news for Christmas shopping and provides a safety net for retail even if lockdown or other restrictions remain in place, on balance the risks to Christmas spending remain skewed to the downside,” said Hannah Audino, economist at PwC.
“While we have high levels of involuntary saving, the extension of the furlough scheme, and positive news regarding a vaccine, the considerable uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook and Christmas plans are likely to weigh on spending intentions.”
But Audino added that the outlook for January sales spending was more positive, with rising optimism over a vaccine rollout and the possibility of bumper sales to offload unsold stock.


cityam--2020-11-24--Telecoms firms to face hefty fines under new Huawei laws

UK telecoms companies will face hefty fines if they fail to comply with the ban on Huawei under a new law submitted in parliament today .
In July the government announced a total ban on Huawei , ordering network providers to remove all equipment made by the controversial Chinese tech giant by 2027 .
Under the new legislation unveiled today , any company that fails to follow the ban on high-risk vendors could face fines of up to 10 per cent of turnover or , in the case of continuing contravention , £100,000 per day .
The tough new penalties @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cybersecurity practices under the Telecoms Security Bill .
The law is aimed at incentivising telecoms firms to beef up their defences and will also allow the government to impose bans on their use of goods , services or facilities supplied by high-risk vendors .
While it is primarily aimed at Huawei , the law is designed to provide a framework for any future player in the UK telecoms market that is also deemed to pose a threat to national security .
Media watchdog Ofcom will be given new powers to monitor companies ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ exclusively in City A.M. today , digital minister Matt Warman said the legislation “ will bring in one of the strongest telecoms security regimes in the world , a rise in standards across the board , set by the government rather than the industry ” .
“ We are going wider than just one business , one country or one threat .
The law is designed to increase the security of the entire telecoms system , regardless of whose products are used in it , ” he wrote .
“ It creates a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ when new security threats arise or technologies evolve and creates a new minimum bar all telecoms providers need to meet.
” But the rules will ramp up the pressure on telecoms providers as they kick off the costly process of ripping Huawei kit out of their networks .
BT expects the ban to cost it £500m , while Vodafone has warned it will need to spend “ single-figure billions ” to make the changes .
Read more : BT taps Nokia to replace Huawei in 5G networks Separately , the Telecoms Security Bill @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ensure a minimum level of cybersecurity in their networks and services .
The details of these requirements will be set out later in secondary legislation , but are expected to include controls over who has access to sensitive core network equipment and software , a new regime of security audits and an obligation to protect customer data as it moves around networks .
The rules are designed to mitigate the risk of cyber attacks by state actors or criminals .
In recent years the government has linked a string of breaches to Russia @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Korea and Iranian actors .
This includes China ’ s 2018 Cloud Hopper campaign , which saw spies hack into a range of companies across sectors including aerospace and defence , telecoms , professional services and utilities in one of the most severe cyber attacks ever uncovered .
“ The rollout of 5G and gigabit broadband presents great opportunities for the UK , but as we benefit from these we need to improve security in our national networks and operators need to know what is expected of them , ” said Dr Ian @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Cyber Security Centre .
“ We are committed to driving up standards and this bill imposes new telecoms security requirements , which will help operators make better risk management decisions.
” The decision to ban Huawei has sparked concerns about a lack of diversity in the UK ’ s telecoms networks , with Finland ’ s Nokia and Swedish rival Ericsson now dominating the market .
The government is set to publish its 5G diversification strategy in the coming months in a bid to encourage new vendors into the market .

Telecoms firms to face hefty fines under new Huawei laws
The government has ordered telecoms providers to remove all Huawei kit by 2027
UK telecoms companies will face hefty fines if they fail to comply with the ban on Huawei under a new law submitted in parliament today.
In July the government announced a total ban on Huawei, ordering network providers to remove all equipment made by the controversial Chinese tech giant by 2027.
Under the new legislation unveiled today, any company that fails to follow the ban on high-risk vendors could face fines of up to 10 per cent of turnover or, in the case of continuing contravention, £100,000 per day.
The tough new penalties form part of a wider tightening of cybersecurity practices under the Telecoms Security Bill.
The law is aimed at incentivising telecoms firms to beef up their defences and will also allow the government to impose bans on their use of goods, services or facilities supplied by high-risk vendors.
While it is primarily aimed at Huawei, the law is designed to provide a framework for any future player in the UK telecoms market that is also deemed to pose a threat to national security.
Media watchdog Ofcom will be given new powers to monitor companies’ compliance and enforce the rules.
Writing exclusively in City A.M. today, digital minister Matt Warman said the legislation “will bring in one of the strongest telecoms security regimes in the world, a rise in standards across the board, set by the government rather than the industry”.
“We are going wider than just one business, one country or one threat. The law is designed to increase the security of the entire telecoms system, regardless of whose products are used in it,” he wrote.
“It creates a flexible framework that will change if and when new security threats arise or technologies evolve and creates a new minimum bar all telecoms providers need to meet.”
But the rules will ramp up the pressure on telecoms providers as they kick off the costly process of ripping Huawei kit out of their networks.
BT expects the ban to cost it £500m, while Vodafone has warned it will need to spend “single-figure billions” to make the changes.
Cyber standards
Separately, the Telecoms Security Bill outlines new requirements for telecoms firms to ensure a minimum level of cybersecurity in their networks and services.
The details of these requirements will be set out later in secondary legislation, but are expected to include controls over who has access to sensitive core network equipment and software, a new regime of security audits and an obligation to protect customer data as it moves around networks.
The rules are designed to mitigate the risk of cyber attacks by state actors or criminals.
In recent years the government has linked a string of breaches to Russia and China, as well as North Korea and Iranian actors.
This includes China’s 2018 Cloud Hopper campaign, which saw spies hack into a range of companies across sectors including aerospace and defence, telecoms, professional services and utilities in one of the most severe cyber attacks ever uncovered.
“The rollout of 5G and gigabit broadband presents great opportunities for the UK, but as we benefit from these we need to improve security in our national networks and operators need to know what is expected of them,” said Dr Ian Levy, technical director of the National Cyber Security Centre.
“We are committed to driving up standards and this bill imposes new telecoms security requirements, which will help operators make better risk management decisions.”
The decision to ban Huawei has sparked concerns about a lack of diversity in the UK’s telecoms networks, with Finland’s Nokia and Swedish rival Ericsson now dominating the market.
The government is set to publish its 5G diversification strategy in the coming months in a bid to encourage new vendors into the market.


cityam--2020-11-24--City of London to spearhead taskforce to tackle lack of class diversity in finance

The City of London and the government are today launching a joint taskforce to tackle the lack of class diversity in the UK ’ s financial services sector .
The announcement comes as new research found that nine in ten senior roles in financial services are held by people from richer backgrounds .
Read more : City sponsors initiative for more diversity in asset management The report , by social equality advocates Bridge Group , also said that employees from less privileged backgrounds take 25 per cent longer to progress , despite no evidence of poorer performance .
The taskforce @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and the Department for Business , Energy and Industrial Strategy , will attempt to boost representation in the sector .
It will do so by leading a consultation on how the government , regulators and sector bodies can incentivise firms to act on the issue .
In addition , it will create a membership body where companies can evaluate their performance against their peers .
It will also build a business case for increasing the representation of people from less privileged backgrounds in the sector .
City minister John Glen said : “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for UK financial services and it ’ s vital that firms have the right leadership to grasp the opportunities ahead .
Before the Open newsletter : Start your day with the City View podcast and key market data “ That means taking action to ensure that talented people from all backgrounds and parts of the country can reach their full potential .
By breaking down socio-economic barriers to progression , our financial services sector will become more innovative and competitive , and help to level up the UK.
” City of London policy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , along with three vice deputy chairs , including Bank of England chief economist Andy Haldane .
McGuinness said : “ Talented individuals should be able to succeed in financial and professional services on their own merit regardless of socio-economic background .
Unfortunately , for many people that does not yet seem to be a reality .
“ We hope that firms will seize the opportunity the taskforce provides to develop a more diverse pipeline by ensuring they are truly recruiting and promoting on merit.
” In addition , the research showed that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ were from a higher socio-economic background by parental occupation , and 11 per cent were educated at an independent school .
Read more : Investors demand greater transparency on ethnic diversity on boards For senior level employees ( senior manager and above ) , this rises to 89 per cent and 25 per cent respectively .
Just under half ( 42.7 per cent ) of senior roles were occupied by white men who attended an independent or selective state school .

City of London to spearhead taskforce to tackle lack of class diversity in finance
The City of London and the government are today launching a joint taskforce to tackle the lack of class diversity in the UK’s financial services sector.
The announcement comes as new research found that nine in ten senior roles in financial services are held by people from richer backgrounds.
The report, by social equality advocates Bridge Group, also said that employees from less privileged backgrounds take 25 per cent longer to progress, despite no evidence of poorer performance.
The taskforce, which was commissioned by the Treasury and the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, will attempt to boost representation in the sector.
It will do so by leading a consultation on how the government, regulators and sector bodies can incentivise firms to act on the issue.
In addition, it will create a membership body where companies can evaluate their performance against their peers.
It will also build a business case for increasing the representation of people from less privileged backgrounds in the sector.
City minister John Glen said: “We’re entering a new chapter for UK financial services and it’s vital that firms have the right leadership to grasp the opportunities ahead.
Before the Open newsletter: Start your day with the City View podcast and key market data
“That means taking action to ensure that talented people from all backgrounds and parts of the country can reach their full potential. By breaking down socio-economic barriers to progression, our financial services sector will become more innovative and competitive, and help to level up the UK.”
City of London policy chair Catherine McGuinness will chair the body, along with three vice deputy chairs, including Bank of England chief economist Andy Haldane.
McGuinness said: “Talented individuals should be able to succeed in financial and professional services on their own merit regardless of socio-economic background. Unfortunately, for many people that does not yet seem to be a reality.
“We hope that firms will seize the opportunity the taskforce provides to develop a more diverse pipeline by ensuring they are truly recruiting and promoting on merit.”
In addition, the research showed that among junior employees, 47 per cent were from a higher socio-economic background by parental occupation, and 11 per cent were educated at an independent school.
For senior level employees (senior manager and above), this rises to 89 per cent and 25 per cent respectively.
Just under half (42.7 per cent) of senior roles were occupied by white men who attended an independent or selective state school.


cityam--2020-11-24--Covid-19: Travel quarantine restrictions to be relaxed in time for Christmas

Blanket travel quarantine restrictions will be relaxed from 15 December so people can travel to high-risk “ red list ” countries to visit relatives for Christmas .
After weeks of fierce interest , transport secretary Grant Shapps announced the changes to the current system overnight .
Read more : Quarantine period for UK travel arrivals set to be reduced once lockdown eases , Shapps tells industry Under Shapps ’ new plan , from mid-December those returning from high-risk countries which do not have a a travel corridor will be able to order a Covid test , and if they test @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the UK , can be free .
Since 10 July , business travellers and holiday makers have risked needing to self-isolate for 14 upon arrival back into the UK if their destination was placed on the high-risk red-list .
A list of quarantine-free travel corridors , destinations deemed safe to travel to without the need to self-isolate on return , has changed as infection rates increased in Europe but fell elsewhere in the autumn .
The so-called ‘ green list ’ of travel corridors will still operate , indicating where it is safer @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pay for PCR tests , cheaper – to travel to .
Under Shapps ’ plan the PCR tests are expected to cost between £130 and £180 , the Telegraph reported .
Shapps said : “ Our new testing strategy will allow us to travel more freely , see loved ones and drive international business .
By giving people the choice to test on day five , we are also supporting the travel industry as it continues to rebuild out of the pandemic.
” Airlines UK , the trade body for British carriers , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it would “ begin the process of opening up international travel and restarting UK aviation ” .
But , said chief executive Tim Alderslade , the government needs to go further and put in place “ a pre-departure or domestic testing regime that can remove safely the need for self-isolation altogether , as quickly as possible ” .
Shares in airlines such as Easyjet , British Airways-owner IAG and travel giant Tui closed trading up 6.3 per cent , 5.5 per cent and 8.1 per cent in anticipation of the announcement .
Further @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this time from AstraZeneca , also boosted leisure shares .
Ministers also announced that the UK ’ s airports would receive new financial support after months of pleading from the sector .
The support , which will become available in the new year , will be equivalent to the business rates liabilities of each airport , and capped at £8m for each site .
Airports in England and Wales have been asking for business rates relief – which has already been received by their Scottish counterparts – for six months .
Chancellor Rishi @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is vital to our economy – creating jobs and driving growth- which is why we have supported them throughout this crisis through the job retention scheme , loans and tax deferrals .
“ This new package of support for airports , alongside a new testing regime for international arrivals , will help the sector take off once again as we build back better from the pandemic.
” Airport Operators ’ Association chief exec Karen Dee said : “ We are pleased that the Government has listened to our calls for business rates relief @ @ @ @ @ @ @ : Israel and Sri Lanka added to quarantine free travel corridors list “ The measures announced today will provide much-needed support to many embattled airports , helping them through the challenging months ahead .
“ However , not all airports will see full business rates relief and all of aviation will continue to face considerable challenges over the coming months and years .
We will therefore need to continue to work with Government on what other steps can be taken to safeguard the UK ’ s aviation businesses .
”


cityam--2020-11-23--Oil prices hit highest levels since March on more vaccine hopes

Global oil prices rose again today as a third straight Monday brought with it positive news concerning a vaccine for the coronavirus disease .
Prices climbed a further two per cent after Astrazeneca and Oxford University said that their vaccine was up to 90 per cent effective .
Read more : Oil prices bounce back on Moderna vaccine hopes ahead of crucial Opec+ meeting The announcement followed similar statements in recent weeks from the likes of Pfizer and Moderna .
As a result of the hike , worldwide standard Brent crude is now trading at $ 45.81 , its highest @ @ @ @ @ @ @ US benchmark West Texas Intermediate enjoyed a slightly smaller increase , but still picked up one per cent to trade at $ 42.86 .
Prices were helped even higher by news from the US , where officials said that inoculations could start from mid-December .
Before the Open newsletter : Start your day with the City View podcast and key market data Rystad Energy head of oil markets Bjornar Tonhaugen said : “ The thought of starting a vaccination campaign already within 2020 revitalised trader hopes that oil demand could take a little @ @ @ @ @ @ @ oil demand is currently expected to take a hit from the second global round of lockdowns , the early vaccine news are offer some light in the tunnel.
” Sentiment was also bolstered by expectations that the OPEC , Russia and other producers , a group known as OPEC+ , would extend a deal to restrain output .
On the supply side , OPEC+ , which meets at the end of the week , will look at options to extend its deal on output cuts by at least three months from January .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ week of gains as vaccine rally cools

Oil prices hit highest levels since March on more vaccine hopes
Global oil prices rose again today as a third straight Monday brought with it positive news concerning a vaccine for the coronavirus disease.
Prices climbed a further two per cent after Astrazeneca and Oxford University said that their vaccine was up to 90 per cent effective.
The announcement followed similar statements in recent weeks from the likes of Pfizer and Moderna.
As a result of the hike, worldwide standard Brent crude is now trading at $45.81, its highest levels since the beginning of March.
US benchmark West Texas Intermediate enjoyed a slightly smaller increase, but still picked up one per cent to trade at $42.86.
Prices were helped even higher by news from the US, where officials said that inoculations could start from mid-December.
Before the Open newsletter: Start your day with the City View podcast and key market data
Rystad Energy head of oil markets Bjornar Tonhaugen said: “The thought of starting a vaccination campaign already within 2020 revitalised trader hopes that oil demand could take a little less time to recover.
“As oil demand is currently expected to take a hit from the second global round of lockdowns, the early vaccine news are offer some light in the tunnel.”
Sentiment was also bolstered by expectations that the OPEC, Russia and other producers, a group known as OPEC+, would extend a deal to restrain output.
On the supply side, OPEC+, which meets at the end of the week, will look at options to extend its deal on output cuts by at least three months from January.


cityam--2020-11-23--Biden set to pick former US Fed chair Janet Yellen as his Treasury Secretary

US President-elect Joe Biden is expected to tap former Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen as US Treasury Secretary , according to two Democratic allies .
A spokesman for Biden ’ s campaign declined to comment on the Treasury Secretary role .
Former US Fed chair Yellen also declined to comment .
Read more : Fed ’ s Jay Powell : Too much stimulus is better than too little Janet Yellen , 74 , would be the first woman to head the Treasury and Biden ’ s choice represents a move to go with an experienced policymaker respected by Congress , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ interests alike .
The role is currently held by former Goldman Sachs investment banker Steve Mnuchin .
The Wall Street Journal first reported that Biden planned to tap Yellen .
Yellen has called for increased government spending to boost the US economy out of a deep recession brought on by the coronavirus and has frequently cited growing economic inequality in the United States as a threat to America ’ s values and its future .
At Treasury , she would have a major role in influencing US fiscal and tax policy , tools @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , which she chaired from 2014 to 2018 .
Read more : Fed chair Powell : US economic recovery hinges on coronavirus being under control Yellen was vice chair from 2010 to 2014 .
The daughter of a family doctor and elementary school teacher in Brooklyn , Yellen earned a doctorate in economics from Yale and has taught economics at the University of California , Berkeley , Harvard University and the London School of Economics ( LSE ) .

Biden set to pick former US Fed chair Janet Yellen as his Treasury Secretary
Janet Yellen was an Obama-era pick as the chair of the US Federal Reserve
US President-elect Joe Biden is expected to tap former Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen as US Treasury Secretary, according to two Democratic allies.
A spokesman for Biden’s campaign declined to comment on the Treasury Secretary role.
Former US Fed chair Yellen also declined to comment.
Janet Yellen, 74, would be the first woman to head the Treasury and Biden’s choice represents a move to go with an experienced policymaker respected by Congress, international finance officials, progressives and business interests alike.
The role is currently held by former Goldman Sachs investment banker Steve Mnuchin.
The Wall Street Journal first reported that Biden planned to tap Yellen.
Yellen has called for increased government spending to boost the US economy out of a deep recession brought on by the coronavirus and has frequently cited growing economic inequality in the United States as a threat to America’s values and its future.
At Treasury, she would have a major role in influencing US fiscal and tax policy, tools she did not have at the Fed, which she chaired from 2014 to 2018.
Yellen was vice chair from 2010 to 2014.
The daughter of a family doctor and elementary school teacher in Brooklyn, Yellen earned a doctorate in economics from Yale and has taught economics at the University of California, Berkeley, Harvard University and the London School of Economics (LSE).


cityam--2020-11-23--Former IAG boss Willie Walsh to become IATA chief exec

Willie Walsh , the outspoken former boss of British Airways-owner IAG , is set to become the head of global aviation body IATA .
The Irishman stepped down from his role as chief executive of the European carrier group in September .
He had been meant to leave in the spring , but agreed to carry out to shepherd IAG through the coronavirus pandemic .
Now IATA have announced that he will replace current boss Alexandre de Juniac in March .
De Juniac – a former chief exec of Air France-KLM – took up the post in 2016 .
He @ @ @ @ @ @ @ IATA has strategically increased its relevance as the voice of the global airline industry .
This has been evident in the Covid-19 crisis .
Before the Open newsletter : Start your day with the City View podcast and key market data “ IATA has set the course to restore air connectivity amid the pandemic with systematic pre-departure testing .
We are well into preparations to fulfil critical vaccine distribution needs .
“ In parallel , we have restructured IATA to survive the crisis and be ready to support the industry recovery with an @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” Walsh is one of the industry ’ s best-known figures , renowned for his no-nonsense – and sometime abrasive – style .
He was instrumental in the creation of IAG , overseeing the merger of Spanish carrier Iberia and BA , which he was running at the time .
Read more : Four challenges facing new BA owner IAG ’ s boss Luis Gallego During the pandemic , he was particularly critical of governments stepping in to protect their national carriers , arguing instead airlines which could not survive the downturn on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .

Former IAG boss Willie Walsh to become IATA chief exec
Former IAG boss Willie Walsh is one of the best-known aviation execs in the business.
Willie Walsh, the outspoken former boss of British Airways-owner IAG, is set to become the head of global aviation body IATA.
The Irishman stepped down from his role as chief executive of the European carrier group in September.
He had been meant to leave in the spring, but agreed to carry out to shepherd IAG through the coronavirus pandemic.
Now IATA have announced that he will replace current boss Alexandre de Juniac in March.
De Juniac – a former chief exec of Air France-KLM – took up the post in 2016.
He said: “Over the last years IATA has strategically increased its relevance as the voice of the global airline industry. This has been evident in the Covid-19 crisis.
Before the Open newsletter: Start your day with the City View podcast and key market data
“IATA has set the course to restore air connectivity amid the pandemic with systematic pre-departure testing. We are well into preparations to fulfil critical vaccine distribution needs.
“In parallel, we have restructured IATA to survive the crisis and be ready to support the industry recovery with an organization dimensioned to serve a smaller industry.”
Walsh is one of the industry’s best-known figures, renowned for his no-nonsense – and sometime abrasive – style.
He was instrumental in the creation of IAG, overseeing the merger of Spanish carrier Iberia and BA, which he was running at the time.
During the pandemic, he was particularly critical of governments stepping in to protect their national carriers, arguing instead airlines which could not survive the downturn on their own should be allowed to fail.


cityam--2020-11-23--Sterling hits 10-week high on vaccine and Brexit deal optimism

Sterling rallied to a two and a half month high today , as more positive news about a potential Covid-19 vaccine propelled investors to buy riskier currencies and offset concerns about whether Britain and the EU can clinch a Brexit trade deal .
Tonight the pound is up 0.3 per cent to $ 1.332 , while against the euro it rose 0.45 per cent to €1.125 , a near two-week high .
Optimism has kept sterling buoyant and news that Britain ’ s AstraZeneca vaccine for the novel coronavirus could be around 90 % effective without any serious side effects @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the pound to a two and a half month high .
London and Brussels this week will continue their negotiations to agree a deal on their future trading relationship , though time is now running very short as Britain ’ s post-Brexit transition period ends in fewer than six weeks on 31 December .
Read more : UK signs rollover trade deal with Canada ahead of post-Brexit talks Without an agreement Britain would revert to trading with the EU on World Trade Organisation rules , an outcome both sides believe would prove highly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ believe a deal will be clinched , even if it is a bare-bones one that leaves some trade discussions for later .
“ The FX market is seeing it as a GBP positive sign that the negotiations are being continued in December , ” said Ulrich Leuchtmann , an FX strategist at Commerzbank , while adding that an extension to the December 31 transition period end-date is now likely as the two sides run out of time to forge a deal .

Sterling hits 10-week high on vaccine and Brexit deal optimism
Sterling rallied on Monday to a two and a half month high.
Sterling rallied to a two and a half month high today, as more positive news about a potential Covid-19 vaccine propelled investors to buy riskier currencies and offset concerns about whether Britain and the EU can clinch a Brexit trade deal.
Tonight the pound is up 0.3 per cent to $1.332, while against the euro it rose 0.45 per cent to €1.125, a near two-week high.
Optimism has kept sterling buoyant and news that Britain’s AstraZeneca vaccine for the novel coronavirus could be around 90% effective without any serious side effects added to the positive mood and pushed the pound to a two and a half month high.
London and Brussels this week will continue their negotiations to agree a deal on their future trading relationship, though time is now running very short as Britain’s post-Brexit transition period ends in fewer than six weeks on 31 December.
Without an agreement Britain would revert to trading with the EU on World Trade Organisation rules, an outcome both sides believe would prove highly disruptive for their economies.
Most investors believe a deal will be clinched, even if it is a bare-bones one that leaves some trade discussions for later.
“The FX market is seeing it as a GBP positive sign that the negotiations are being continued in December,” said Ulrich Leuchtmann, an FX strategist at Commerzbank, while adding that an extension to the December 31 transition period end-date is now likely as the two sides run out of time to forge a deal.