cityam--2020-08-12--The City View: Lord Barker on the 'compelling case' to extend the furlough scheme

In this episode Christian talks to former energy and climate change minister Greg ( now Lord ) Barker , who currently sits as executive chairman of Russian energy and metals giant EN+ Group .
Lord Barker begins by assessing the current economic conditions and says there is a compelling case to extend the multi-billion-pound furlough scheme .
He also calls for more targeted financial support for businesses .
Turning to infrastructure , he makes the case for a greater market value for low-carbon aluminium ( as opposed to heavy carbon Chinese aluminium ) and talks about his work rolling out @ @ @ @ @ @ @ he answers questions about the debate surrounding members of the House of Lords with links to Russian businesses and , mindful of the controversy around his own current role , says there is a case for greater transparency and reform .
Also in this episode , Christian discusses the latest economic data and what can be done to aid the recovery ; Natwest ’ s job cuts ; and Doc Martens ’ decision to return the furlough money they called upon during the lockdown .
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ETX Capital and the presenter are not financial or investment advisors and do not recommend any instrument of any kind .
Any instruments that are mentioned throughout are cited only for illustrative and educational purposes .

The City View: Lord Barker on the ‘compelling case’ to extend the furlough scheme
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In this episode Christian talks to former energy and climate change minister Greg (now Lord) Barker, who currently sits as executive chairman of Russian energy and metals giant EN+ Group. Lord Barker begins by assessing the current economic conditions and says there is a compelling case to extend the multi-billion-pound furlough scheme. He also calls for more targeted financial support for businesses. Turning to infrastructure, he makes the case for a greater market value for low-carbon aluminium (as opposed to heavy carbon Chinese aluminium) and talks about his work rolling out electric vehicle fast-charging points. Finally, he answers questions about the debate surrounding members of the House of Lords with links to Russian businesses and, mindful of the controversy around his own current role, says there is a case for greater transparency and reform.
Also in this episode, Christian discusses the latest economic data and what can be done to aid the recovery; Natwest’s job cuts; and Doc Martens’ decision to return the furlough money they called upon during the lockdown.
In association with ETX Capital
ETX Capital is one of the UK’s leading spread betting and CFD trading providers, offering services to retail, institutional, professional and high net worth customers via an award-winning trading platform. With over 50 years of experience in the financial markets, customers and service are always put first at ETX, and the company prides itself in offering a tailor-made trading experience to every customer. The multi-device TraderPro platform delivers a fully customisable, award-winning trading technology with customisable charts, instant execution and over 5,000 markets to trade.
Disclaimer: Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 76% of retail investor accounts lose money when spread betting or trading CFDs with ETX. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets or CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority with Financial Services register number 124721. ETX Capital provides an execution-only service and therefore any market analysis, opinion, commentary or other information provided during this webinar is for educational purposes only and is not intended to be a personal recommendation or construed as advice. ETX Capital and the presenter are not financial or investment advisors and do not recommend any instrument of any kind. Any instruments that are mentioned throughout are cited only for illustrative and educational purposes.


cityam--2020-08-12--UK house prices move out of negative territory for first time since March

UK house prices gained momentum last month , moving out of negative territory for the first time since lockdown began as the government ’ s stamp duty holiday motivated buyers .
However the bounce is not expected to last long , as government support schemes wind down in the winter .
Across the UK in aggregate , a net balance of 12 per cent of respondents to the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors ’ monthly survey reported an increase in house prices during July .
This was a noticeable turnaround from minus 13 per cent in June , as UK @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
London was the sole exception , however , where a net balance of minus 10 per cent of respondents cited a decline .
It was still significantly less negative than the minus 54 per cent reading posted in June .
Overall a net balance of eight per cent of contributors said they expect UK house prices to increase over the next 12 months .
That makes this latest reading consistent with a flat to marginally positive outlook for house prices in the year ahead , RICS said .
As new buyers flooded @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of survey participants noted an increase in interested buyers over the month of July , marking the second consecutive month in which demand has rebounded firmly .
Alongside this , 57 per cent of respondents nationally saw a rise in agreed sales in July across all parts of the UK .
RICS said this was indicative of a strong uptick in transaction levels , even as UK house prices strengthened , following hefty declines a few months ago .
Respondents predicted continued growth in sales over the next three months , as 26 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
However , further out , yearly sales projections remain negative as government support schemes which have been aiding people ’ s finances come to an end .
Read more : A third of UK firms plan job cuts by October as furlough scheme ends A net balance of minus 10 per cent of respondents foresee sales tailing off over the year ahead , with concerns about the prospects for the UK economy .

UK house prices move out of negative territory for first time since March
UK house prices gained momentum last month, moving out of negative territory for the first time since lockdown began as the government’s stamp duty holiday motivated buyers.
However the bounce is not expected to last long, as government support schemes wind down in the winter.
UK house prices firm up
Across the UK in aggregate, a net balance of 12 per cent of respondents to the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors’ monthly survey reported an increase in house prices during July.
This was a noticeable turnaround from minus 13 per cent in June, as UK house prices rose in virtually all regions.
London was the sole exception, however, where a net balance of minus 10 per cent of respondents cited a decline. It was still significantly less negative than the minus 54 per cent reading posted in June.
Read more: London house prices fall despite market’s coronavirus recovery
Overall a net balance of eight per cent of contributors said they expect UK house prices to increase over the next 12 months.
That makes this latest reading consistent with a flat to marginally positive outlook for house prices in the year ahead, RICS said.
Buyers and sellers
As new buyers flooded into the market, 75 per cent of survey participants noted an increase in interested buyers over the month of July, marking the second consecutive month in which demand has rebounded firmly.
Alongside this, 57 per cent of respondents nationally saw a rise in agreed sales in July across all parts of the UK.
RICS said this was indicative of a strong uptick in transaction levels, even as UK house prices strengthened, following hefty declines a few months ago.
Respondents predicted continued growth in sales over the next three months, as 26 per cent of contributors anticipated an increase.
However, further out, yearly sales projections remain negative as government support schemes which have been aiding people’s finances come to an end.
A net balance of minus 10 per cent of respondents foresee sales tailing off over the year ahead, with concerns about the prospects for the UK economy.


cityam--2020-08-12--London house prices fall despite market’s coronavirus recovery

London house prices continued to fall in July , new data revealed today , despite an increase in demand from new buyers .
Respondents to the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors ( RICS ) UK Residential Survey also do not expect this demand to continue , as wider government support measures begin to be phased out later in the year .
Read more : How badly will coronavirus hit UK house prices in 2020 ?
Almost half of survey respondents said they saw an increase in new buyers returning to the London housing market in July , up from minus @ @ @ @ @ @ @ per cent in June — marking the second consecutive report in which demand has rebounded .
The capital has now seen an uptick in the number of sales being agreed for the second month in a row , as 34 per cent of respondents said they had seen a rise in people agreeing purchases .
RICS said this is indicative of a strong pick-up in transaction levels , after the hefty declines reported a few months ago .
The positive turn was also mirrored across the rest of the UK .
Read more @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in post-lockdown ‘ mini-boom ’ In the short term , almost a fifth of respondents said they expect completed sales in London to continue to rise in the next three months .
However within the next year , as the furlough scheme and other support measures come to an end , only seven per cent of respondents expect sales to improve .
Despite the capital experiencing a flurry in sales activity , RICS said London house prices remain negative — the only region across the UK to still experience prices falling .
A @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of respondents reported a decline in London house prices during July , though this was a major improvement on the minus 54 per cent reading posted in June .
A net balance of minus 15 per cent of contributors expect London house prices to fall in the coming three months , and some minus 21 per cent over the next 12 months .
“ It is interesting that there remains rather more caution about the medium term outlook with the macro environment , job losses and the ending or tapering of government support @ @ @ @ @ @ @ their toll , ” said RICS chief economist Simon Rubinsohn .
“ Significantly , some contributors are now even referencing the possibility of a boom followed by a bust .
”

London house prices fall despite market’s coronavirus recovery
London house prices continued to fall in July, new data revealed today, despite an increase in demand from new buyers.
Respondents to the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) UK Residential Survey also do not expect this demand to continue, as wider government support measures begin to be phased out later in the year.
Buyers and sellers
Almost half of survey respondents said they saw an increase in new buyers returning to the London housing market in July, up from minus 20 per cent in May and 43 per cent in June — marking the second consecutive report in which demand has rebounded.
The capital has now seen an uptick in the number of sales being agreed for the second month in a row, as 34 per cent of respondents said they had seen a rise in people agreeing purchases.
RICS said this is indicative of a strong pick-up in transaction levels, after the hefty declines reported a few months ago. The positive turn was also mirrored across the rest of the UK.
In the short term, almost a fifth of respondents said they expect completed sales in London to continue to rise in the next three months.
However within the next year, as the furlough scheme and other support measures come to an end, only seven per cent of respondents expect sales to improve.
London house prices
Despite the capital experiencing a flurry in sales activity, RICS said London house prices remain negative — the only region across the UK to still experience prices falling.
A net balance of minus 10 per cent of respondents reported a decline in London house prices during July, though this was a major improvement on the minus 54 per cent reading posted in June.
A net balance of minus 15 per cent of contributors expect London house prices to fall in the coming three months, and some minus 21 per cent over the next 12 months.
“It is interesting that there remains rather more caution about the medium term outlook with the macro environment, job losses and the ending or tapering of government support measures for the sector expected to take their toll,” said RICS chief economist Simon Rubinsohn.
“Significantly, some contributors are now even referencing the possibility of a boom followed by a bust.”


cityam--2020-08-12--London pubs and restaurants suffer sharp sales drop in July

UK pubs , bars and restaurants suffered a 50 per cent drop in sales in July as the sector reopened after lockdown , with London the worst affected area in the country , according to the latest research .
London venues were the worst hit , falling 58.3 per cent last month , compared to July 2019 , while hospitality firms outside the M25 suffered a drop of 48.5 per cent .
Read more : We should never have to choose between pubs and schools — but if we do , schools must come first The capital ’ s hospitality @ @ @ @ @ @ @ both central government and the mayor of London as it has been hit by a drop in the number of office workers and tourists visiting the city centre .
Pubs fared better than restaurants and bars , with sales down 44.7 per cent , 59.8 per cent and 63.3 per cent respectively .
The UK hospitality industry was allowed to reopen from 4 July with social distancing measures in place .
Many operators have gradually reopened sites , and some are still not open .
By the end of July , 76 per @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in February were back open by the end of July .
Karl Chessell , director of business insight consultancy CGA , said : “ Even before lockdown the casual dining boom had stalled and a number of groups were closing sites and restructuring .
“ The COVID crisis looks to have accelerated that trend , and it is unclear how many of those group-owned restaurants will eventually reopen , certainly under current ownership.
” Delivery accounted for 13.1 per cent of sales among the casual dining groups in study in July , up @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the effects of Covid-19 were first felt and 5.9 per cent in February .
“ The growth in delivery has been a marked feature of lockdown , and is likely to remain an important sales component for those food-led businesses that make it through , ” Chessell added .
Mark Sheehan , managing director of Coffer Corporate Leisure , added : “ Despite the fanfare over the July 4 reopening date for hospitality , in reality trade is recovering slowly .
Read more : The City View : Glass half full ?
Emma @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ The restaurant sector , already under severe pressure pre-COVID has been decimated by the lockdown .
The pub sector has proven to be more resilient as expected and is now bouncing back strongly in many areas .
“ The August numbers will be helped by more people returning to work , Eat Out to Help Out , and also habits starting to return to usual and so we will see a marked increase in certain areas .
Central London , however , still lags the rest of the country .
”

London pubs and restaurants suffer sharp sales drop in July
Pubs might be one of the last of the high street stalwarts to reopen
UK pubs, bars and restaurants suffered a 50 per cent drop in sales in July as the sector reopened after lockdown, with London the worst affected area in the country, according to the latest research.
London venues were the worst hit, falling 58.3 per cent last month, compared to July 2019, while hospitality firms outside the M25 suffered a drop of 48.5 per cent.
The capital’s hospitality sector has called for extra help from both central government and the mayor of London as it has been hit by a drop in the number of office workers and tourists visiting the city centre.
Pubs fared better than restaurants and bars, with sales down 44.7 per cent, 59.8 per cent and 63.3 per cent respectively.
The UK hospitality industry was allowed to reopen from 4 July with social distancing measures in place. Many operators have gradually reopened sites, and some are still not open.
By the end of July, 76 per cent of group-owned sites that were trading in February were back open by the end of July.
Karl Chessell, director of business insight consultancy CGA, said: “Even before lockdown the casual dining boom had stalled and a number of groups were closing sites and restructuring.
“The COVID crisis looks to have accelerated that trend, and it is unclear how many of those group-owned restaurants will eventually reopen, certainly under current ownership.”
Delivery accounted for 13.1 per cent of sales among the casual dining groups in study in July, up from 7.4 per cent in March when the effects of Covid-19 were first felt and 5.9 per cent in February.
“The growth in delivery has been a marked feature of lockdown, and is likely to remain an important sales component for those food-led businesses that make it through,” Chessell added.
Mark Sheehan, managing director of Coffer Corporate Leisure, added: “Despite the fanfare over the July 4 reopening date for hospitality, in reality trade is recovering slowly.
“The restaurant sector, already under severe pressure pre-COVID has been decimated by the lockdown. The pub sector has proven to be more resilient as expected and is now bouncing back strongly in many areas.
“The August numbers will be helped by more people returning to work, Eat Out to Help Out, and also habits starting to return to usual and so we will see a marked increase in certain areas. Central London, however, still lags the rest of the country.”


cityam--2020-08-12--More than 3m older people can't downsize due to lack of suitable housing

More than 3m people in the UK over the age of 65 want to downsize to a smaller home but can ’ t due to a lack of suitable housing and a competitive market .
Ahead of the Autumn Budget , a report by Homes for Later Living called for ministers to set a goal of building 30,000 retirement homes a year , which would be approximately 10 per cent of the annual housebuilding target .
It also urged the government to make the recent stamp duty cut permanent for older people who are downsizing into specialist retirement housing .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ in July in post-lockdown ‘ mini-boom ’ The research , authored by a former Treasury economist , said that if all people over 65 who want to downsize were able to do so , it would free up nearly 2m spare bedrooms in family homes .
It would also have an impact on first-time buyers , as the analysis suggested that roughly two in every three retirement properties would release a home suitable for a first-time buyer .
The report added that if 30,000 new retirement properties were built every year — which @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 8,000 currently — it would generate savings to the NHS and social care services of as much as £2.1bn a year , as fewer people would end up being hospitalised or needing expensive care from preventable injuries .
Read more : Rightmove : Demand surges 50 per cent after housing market reopens “ Cutting stamp duty is not the only policy that can work across the generational divide to drive housing market transactions , ” said Damian Green MP .
“ To get results here , the chancellor and the secretary of state @ @ @ @ @ @ @ building of more private retirement housing .
This approach could help older and younger buyers , with the research in this report showing that building more specialist retirement housing can stimulate both ends of the market .
”

More than 3m older people can’t downsize due to lack of suitable housing
More than 3m people in the UK over the age of 65 want to downsize to a smaller home but can’t due to a lack of suitable housing and a competitive market.
Ahead of the Autumn Budget, a report by Homes for Later Living called for ministers to set a goal of building 30,000 retirement homes a year, which would be approximately 10 per cent of the annual housebuilding target.
It also urged the government to make the recent stamp duty cut permanent for older people who are downsizing into specialist retirement housing.
The research, authored by a former Treasury economist, said that if all people over 65 who want to downsize were able to do so, it would free up nearly 2m spare bedrooms in family homes.
It would also have an impact on first-time buyers, as the analysis suggested that roughly two in every three retirement properties would release a home suitable for a first-time buyer.
The report added that if 30,000 new retirement properties were built every year — which is the estimated demand, up from 8,000 currently — it would generate savings to the NHS and social care services of as much as £2.1bn a year, as fewer people would end up being hospitalised or needing expensive care from preventable injuries.
“Cutting stamp duty is not the only policy that can work across the generational divide to drive housing market transactions,” said Damian Green MP.
“To get results here, the chancellor and the secretary of state should also consider measures to encourage the building of more private retirement housing. This approach could help older and younger buyers, with the research in this report showing that building more specialist retirement housing can stimulate both ends of the market.”


cityam--2020-08-12--Lyft maintains end-2021 profitability goal

Lyft said today that cuts had put the company on track to reach its goal of becoming profitable on an adjusted basis by the end of 2021 , even as its revenue fell 61 per cent .
Quarterly revenue fell to $ 339.3m , as the pandemic crushed demand for ride-hailing services in North America .
The ride-hailing app said the number of active drivers on its services dropped by 60 per cent to 8.69m in the three months ended June .
Read more : Uber ’ s food delivery business doubles but demand for rides falters Overall , Lyft @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the quarter .
Lyft in April said it was making cuts to pay and laid off nearly 1,000 employees , or 17 per cent of its workforce , in an effort to reduce costs .
Unlike its larger rival Uber , which operates in 69 countries , Lyft only offers rides in the US and Canada .
Read more : Uber faces final Supreme Court appeal to argue drivers are not employees It comes as Uber and Lyft may be forced to shut down their ride-hailing operations in California if a court ruling @ @ @ @ @ @ @ drivers as independent contractors goes into effect .
A California judge on Monday granted the state ’ s request for a preliminary injunction blocking Uber and Lyft from classifying their drivers as independent contractors rather than employees .
Uber said today the shutdown would irreparably harm Uber and the people who rely on its rides operations to generate income .

Lyft maintains end-2021 profitability goal
Lyft said today that cuts had put the company on track to reach its goal of becoming profitable on an adjusted basis by the end of 2021, even as its revenue fell 61 per cent.
Quarterly revenue fell to $339.3m, as the pandemic crushed demand for ride-hailing services in North America.
The ride-hailing app said the number of active drivers on its services dropped by 60 per cent to 8.69m in the three months ended June.
Overall, Lyft recorded a $437.1m net loss in the quarter.
Lyft in April said it was making cuts to pay and laid off nearly 1,000 employees, or 17 per cent of its workforce, in an effort to reduce costs.
Unlike its larger rival Uber, which operates in 69 countries, Lyft only offers rides in the US and Canada.
It comes as Uber and Lyft may be forced to shut down their ride-hailing operations in California if a court ruling that blocks the firms from classifying its drivers as independent contractors goes into effect.
A California judge on Monday granted the state’s request for a preliminary injunction blocking Uber and Lyft from classifying their drivers as independent contractors rather than employees.
Uber said today the shutdown would irreparably harm Uber and the people who rely on its rides operations to generate income.


cityam--2020-08-12--With five months to prepare, the A-level results fiasco is a scandal of the government’s own making

A-level results day is always fraught with drama .
Whether its moral panic of grade inflation , handwringing about the relative value of a university degree , or outrage over news stories being illustrated by delighted blonde girls jumping into the air with joy , results day “ scandal ” it ’ s a staple of the August news calendar .
This year is different .
There is still outrage , but this week it is directed at a government that seems not to have factored the national assessments of millions of GCSE and A-level students into its pandemic response @ @ @ @ @ @ @ months .
Read more : We should never have to choose between pubs and schools — but if we do , schools must come first We have known since the schools were closed in March that this year ’ s cohort would be unable to attain their grades in the normal way .
With an accidental experiment in mass home-schooling suddenly underway , which saw huge disparity in the level of education provided from different schools , cancelling national exams was the only sensible course of action .
That is where sense appears @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the plan was for teachers to assign grades , which would then be moderated centrally .
As we have already seen in Scotland , this process was disastrous The grades assigned by teachers ( who , let us not forget , are themselves judged at least partly on the achievements of their pupils ) were suspiciously generous — over 10 percentage points higher than in previous years , in Scotland and in England .
The exam regulator Ofqual was right to warn that relying on these predictions alone would lead to unfair @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a standardisation formula to teacher predictions , based in part on the past performance of the school .
If you were a high-achieving pupil in a low-performing school , your grades would be marked down .
Initially , around 125,000 Scottish grades were lowered .
Unsurprisingly , the formula hit low-income students harder than those in more affluent areas where schools were stronger .
It was essentially reverse social mobility — and the same looked set to happen with A-level results in England tomorow .
But after days of trying to defend its @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the Scottish government U-turned spectacularly this week and announced that pupils could keep their teacher-predicted grades after all .
Good news if you had a generous teacher , but desperately unfair for students who had genuinely worked hard and now face competition for university places from others whose grades have been inflated .
Now A-levels have seen a similar volte-face at the eleventh hour .
It was announced yesterday that a downgrading formula will still be applied , but in what has been branded “ choose your own grades ” , students @ @ @ @ @ @ @ their moderated predicted grades , revert to what they achieved in their mock exams earlier this year , or “ twist ” and take an optional exam in autumn .
The problems with this “ triple-lock ” system are clear .
Moderated grades will still be influenced by the school ’ s past performance , disadvantaging less well-off pupils .
Mock exams , meanwhile , vary hugely from school to school and do not meet consistent standards .
So far , there is no guidance about what counts as a “ valid mock @ @ @ @ @ @ @ exam , details are scant .
But given the question marks that still hang over whether schools will even be able to open for all pupils in September , not to mention the fact that A-level and GCSE pupils have had barely any face-to-face teaching since March , it is unclear how this will work .
How universities will be expected to assign places based on exams that have not yet been taken is also a mystery .
We can not expect an ideal solution that will be fair to everyone .
What @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a government ( and an education secretary ) switched-on enough to realise that this is would be a major headache well in advance .
The Department for Education has had five months to come up with an alternative system .
Officials could have introduced the idea of an autumn exam months ago , to give schools and pupils time to prepare .
They could have designed an assessment framework based on coursework , perhaps with mini-exams held remotely throughout the summer , to take a snapshot of where pupils were .
Or they @ @ @ @ @ @ @ demarcated grades entirely for this cohort , calling on universities and employers to use interviews as an alternative .
These are , after all , “ unprecedented times ” , and however this year ’ s grades are decided , there will substantial doubts about them — so maybe the only fair thing to do is not give them out at all .
None of these are perfect , but with five months of preparation , something could have been worked out that was fair to the millions of young people whose future @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , it appears that the issue barely featured on the radar of politicians and officials until the Scotland fiasco , with the eventual fudge brought in literally hours before results day itself .
Education has taken a backseat throughout the government ’ s pandemic response , ranking below health , business , and even football on the list of priorities .
So if this year ’ s results day is even more of a scandal than usual , it is a scandal entirely of the government ’ s making .
Read more : @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rescue plan to save UK universities ?

With five months to prepare, the A-level results fiasco is a scandal of the government’s own making
The Scottish government U-turned spectacularly this week and announced that pupils could keep their teacher-predicted grades
A-level results day is always fraught with drama.
Whether its moral panic of grade inflation, handwringing about the relative value of a university degree, or outrage over news stories being illustrated by delighted blonde girls jumping into the air with joy, results day “scandal” it’s a staple of the August news calendar.
This year is different. There is still outrage, but this week it is directed at a government that seems not to have factored the national assessments of millions of GCSE and A-level students into its pandemic response at any point over the past five months.
We have known since the schools were closed in March that this year’s cohort would be unable to attain their grades in the normal way. With an accidental experiment in mass home-schooling suddenly underway, which saw huge disparity in the level of education provided from different schools, cancelling national exams was the only sensible course of action.
That is where sense appears to have ended. With no exams, the plan was for teachers to assign grades, which would then be moderated centrally.
As we have already seen in Scotland, this process was disastrous The grades assigned by teachers (who, let us not forget, are themselves judged at least partly on the achievements of their pupils) were suspiciously generous — over 10 percentage points higher than in previous years, in Scotland and in England.
The exam regulator Ofqual was right to warn that relying on these predictions alone would lead to unfair grade inflation. The solution? Apply a standardisation formula to teacher predictions, based in part on the past performance of the school. If you were a high-achieving pupil in a low-performing school, your grades would be marked down.
Initially, around 125,000 Scottish grades were lowered. Unsurprisingly, the formula hit low-income students harder than those in more affluent areas where schools were stronger. It was essentially reverse social mobility — and the same looked set to happen with A-level results in England tomorow.
But after days of trying to defend its policy in the face of mass fury, the Scottish government U-turned spectacularly this week and announced that pupils could keep their teacher-predicted grades after all. Good news if you had a generous teacher, but desperately unfair for students who had genuinely worked hard and now face competition for university places from others whose grades have been inflated.
Now A-levels have seen a similar volte-face at the eleventh hour. It was announced yesterday that a downgrading formula will still be applied, but in what has been branded “choose your own grades”, students will get a choice: stick with their moderated predicted grades, revert to what they achieved in their mock exams earlier this year, or “twist” and take an optional exam in autumn.
The problems with this “triple-lock” system are clear. Moderated grades will still be influenced by the school’s past performance, disadvantaging less well-off pupils. Mock exams, meanwhile, vary hugely from school to school and do not meet consistent standards. So far, there is no guidance about what counts as a “valid mock”.
As for an optional autumn exam, details are scant. But given the question marks that still hang over whether schools will even be able to open for all pupils in September, not to mention the fact that A-level and GCSE pupils have had barely any face-to-face teaching since March, it is unclear how this will work. How universities will be expected to assign places based on exams that have not yet been taken is also a mystery.
We cannot expect an ideal solution that will be fair to everyone. What we should expect, however, is a government (and an education secretary) switched-on enough to realise that this is would be a major headache well in advance. The Department for Education has had five months to come up with an alternative system.
Officials could have introduced the idea of an autumn exam months ago, to give schools and pupils time to prepare. They could have designed an assessment framework based on coursework, perhaps with mini-exams held remotely throughout the summer, to take a snapshot of where pupils were.
Or they could have been really radical and voided demarcated grades entirely for this cohort, calling on universities and employers to use interviews as an alternative. These are, after all, “unprecedented times”, and however this year’s grades are decided, there will substantial doubts about them — so maybe the only fair thing to do is not give them out at all.
None of these are perfect, but with five months of preparation, something could have been worked out that was fair to the millions of young people whose future rests on this assessment process. Instead, it appears that the issue barely featured on the radar of politicians and officials until the Scotland fiasco, with the eventual fudge brought in literally hours before results day itself.
Education has taken a backseat throughout the government’s pandemic response, ranking below health, business, and even football on the list of priorities. So if this year’s results day is even more of a scandal than usual, it is a scandal entirely of the government’s making.
Main image credit: Getty


cityam--2020-08-12--London swelters in longest stretch of hot weather in almost 60 years

Central London has now recorded its longest stretch of high temperatures since the 1960s , as the capital enters its sixth day of hot weather .
Temperatures in London today surpassed 34 degrees for the sixth day in a row — the first time it has done that since 1961 , the Met Office said .
It comes as much of England and Wales is set to be hit by several days of thunderstorms , with officials warning of expected power cuts , flooding and travel disruption ahead .
Read more : London temperature hits 35C on hottest day of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ yellow weather warning for England and Wales , as well as parts of Scotland .
The warning will run from tonight until next Monday evening .
The storms come after heavy rain and flooding affected large swathes of Scotland last night .
The bad weather is thought to have caused a landslip that derailed a train in Stonehaven this morning , killing three people .
Read more : Three dead after Scotland train incident The Scottish Fire and Rescue Service told the BBC it had received more than 1,000 emergency calls overnight due @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and Cornwall Police warned the south-west of England is “ full to capacity ” , leading to “ unprecedented demand ” for 999 services as holidaymakers flock to the region in pursuit of sunshine .
In Sussex , more homeowners had water supplies cut off or restricted today .
At least 300 householders had already been without tap water since Friday , the BBC reported .

London swelters in longest stretch of hot weather in almost 60 years
Central London has now recorded its longest stretch of high temperatures since the 1960s, as the capital enters its sixth day of hot weather.
Temperatures in London today surpassed 34 degrees for the sixth day in a row — the first time it has done that since 1961, the Met Office said.
It comes as much of England and Wales is set to be hit by several days of thunderstorms, with officials warning of expected power cuts, flooding and travel disruption ahead.
The Met Office has issued a yellow weather warning for England and Wales, as well as parts of Scotland.
The warning will run from tonight until next Monday evening.
The storms come after heavy rain and flooding affected large swathes of Scotland last night.
The bad weather is thought to have caused a landslip that derailed a train in Stonehaven this morning, killing three people.
The Scottish Fire and Rescue Service told the BBC it had received more than 1,000 emergency calls overnight due to the severe weather.
Meanwhile Devon and Cornwall Police warned the south-west of England is “full to capacity”, leading to “unprecedented demand” for 999 services as holidaymakers flock to the region in pursuit of sunshine.
In Sussex, more homeowners had water supplies cut off or restricted today. At least 300 householders had already been without tap water since Friday, the BBC reported.


cityam--2020-08-12--UK coronavirus death toll lowered after methodology change

The official death toll from coronavirus in the UK was lowered by over 5,000 today after the government adopted a new way of counting fatalities .
Concerns had been raised that the old method overstated the number of deaths , as it counted every death after someone had been diagnosed with coronavirus with no cut-off point .
From now on , authorities will publish the number of deaths that occurred within 28 days of a positive Covid-19 test result on a daily basis , the Department of Health and Social Care said .
Read more : London coronavirus cases : @ @ @ @ @ @ @ borough ?
“ The way we count deaths in people with Covid-19 in England was originally chosen to avoid underestimating deaths caused by the virus in the early stages of the pandemic , ” said John Newton , director of heath improvement at Public Health England .
“ Our analysis of the long-term impact of the infection now allows us to move to new methods.
” Under the new method , the UK coronavirus death toll is 41,329 , rather than the 46,706 recorded under the old system .
The toll is still @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Italy which is second on about 35,000 deaths .
While England accounts for 85 per cent of the UK population , the new methodology will be adopted across all four UK nations .
Read more : German institute says coronavirus vaccine could be available by autumn Epidemiologists say excess mortality — deaths from all causes that exceed the five-year average for the time of year — is the best way of gauging coronavirus-related deaths because it is internationally comparable .
The UK had the highest excess death toll during the coronavirus pandemic in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ analysis showed last month , with around 65,000 more people than usual dying .
In England a new weekly set of figures will also be published , including deaths that occur within 60 days and deaths that mention Covid-19 on the death certificate .

UK coronavirus death toll lowered after methodology change
The official death toll from coronavirus in the UK was lowered by over 5,000 today after the government adopted a new way of counting fatalities.
Concerns had been raised that the old method overstated the number of deaths, as it counted every death after someone had been diagnosed with coronavirus with no cut-off point.
From now on, authorities will publish the number of deaths that occurred within 28 days of a positive Covid-19 test result on a daily basis, the Department of Health and Social Care said.
“The way we count deaths in people with Covid-19 in England was originally chosen to avoid underestimating deaths caused by the virus in the early stages of the pandemic,” said John Newton, director of heath improvement at Public Health England.
“Our analysis of the long-term impact of the infection now allows us to move to new methods.”
Under the new method, the UK coronavirus death toll is 41,329, rather than the 46,706 recorded under the old system.
The toll is still the highest in Europe, ahead of Italy which is second on about 35,000 deaths.
While England accounts for 85 per cent of the UK population, the new methodology will be adopted across all four UK nations.
Epidemiologists say excess mortality — deaths from all causes that exceed the five-year average for the time of year — is the best way of gauging coronavirus-related deaths because it is internationally comparable.
The UK had the highest excess death toll during the coronavirus pandemic in comparison to 21 other European countries, analysis showed last month, with around 65,000 more people than usual dying.
In England a new weekly set of figures will also be published, including deaths that occur within 60 days and deaths that mention Covid-19 on the death certificate.


cityam--2020-08-12--London coronavirus cases: How many infections are in your London borough?

The number of confirmed coronavirus cases in London hit 36,538 today , with Croydon the worst affected borough .
Figures released by Public Health England showed that the borough had recorded 1,910 confirmed Covid-19 cases as of today , while Brent has had 1,810 .
Read more : UK lockdown : Zoos and drive-in cinemas could reopen from 15 June Barnet and Ealing have recorded 1,726 and 1,668 positive tests respectively .
Bromley had the fifth most London coronavirus cases with 1,561 .
The capital has had 11.6 per cent of the UK ’ s 313,798 confirmed cases .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to have died of coronavirus has now reached 46,706 .
Cases are steadily rising across the UK , with millions placed in local lockdowns in locations such as Greater Manchester and Leicester .
The increase in numbers has prompted some to suggest that a second wave is inevitable or even potentially already under way .
Listen to our daily City View podcast as we chart the economic fallout and business impact of the coronavirus pandemic .
Sign up to City A.M. ’ s Midday Update newsletter , delivered to your inbox every lunchtime @ @ @ @ @ @ @ effective as of 4 August The number of active cases in the capital is far lower than at the peak of the crisis .
But infection rates are beginning to climb in some boroughs .
London ’ s R number , which indicates how many people somebody with coronavirus will infect for London could be as high as 1.1 .
That means the virus could be spreading across London since lockdown was eased .
Read more : Could London be put into a second coronavirus lockdown ?
The London boroughs with the most @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Croydon , Ealing , Bromley and Barnet .
These figures reportedly forced the government to consider a so-called “ M25 lockdown ” earlier this month , which would have seen restrictions placed on the capital .
The Sunday Times reported that this could potentially include telling people over the age of 50 to stay inside and to ban travel in and out of Greater London , with the M25 as a border point .
Read more : Just Eat Takeaway sales soar during coronavirus lockdown Mayor of London Sadiq Khan still hit out @ @ @ @ @ @ @ emerged , for not being involved in the contingency planning for a London lockdown .
UK GDP shrank a record 20.4 per cent in the second quarter to plunge the country into its largest recession on record as the coronavirus pandemic decimated economies around the world .
According to the Office of National Statistics ( ONS ) , the economy is now 22.1 per cent smaller than it was at the end of 2019 .
Read more : Rishi Sunak says ‘ hard times are here ’ as UK plunges into worst recession @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by a 20 per cent fall in output in April , the biggest monthly decline on record , as the UK went into full lockdown .
With the easing of measures in May and June , a semblance of a recovery began , with GDP picking up 8.7 per cent in the latter .
Last quarter , GDP slumped 2.2 per cent , which was at the time the worst fall since 1979 , as the disease just started to hit the UK economy .
The cliff edge drop that followed between April @ @ @ @ @ @ @ recession , which is defined as two straight quarters of economic decline .

How many Covid-19 infections are there in your London borough?
London has seen a sharp drop in the number of recorded coronavirus cases over the past few days, after figures released on Friday showed the capital currently has the lowest R rate in the country.
A further 629 cases were recorded in the past 24 hours, taking the total number of positive tests in London since the start of the pandemic to 697,278.
It marks a significant drop since a record 19,871 daily cases were recorded on 29 December, as lockdown measures continue to drive down infections.
Several areas in the capital have seen case numbers drop threefold over the past fortnight, which in turn has pushed down the spread of infection.
Most boroughs in the capital now have a seven-day rate below 100 new cases per 100,000, but that figure is below 50 in some areas in central London.
Twenty-nine London borough areas, including the whole of east London which was hardest hit by the second wave, have a seven-day case rate below 100 new confirmed cases per 100,000.
Meanwhile, Southwark, Westminster, Camden, Kensington and Chelsea all recorded seven-day rates below 50. Lewisham saw the lowest case rate in the capital in the week to 24 February, with an average of 43 people infected per 100,000 population.
Meanwhile, Ealing currently has the highest case rate, with 123 cases per 100,000, followed by Hounslow at 115 and Hillingdon on 97.
Health chiefs have said all London boroughs need to get below a case rate of 100 before restrictions can begin to be lifted, starting with the reopening of schools on 8 March.
It comes after figures released last Friday showed London’s R rate remains at a best estimate of 0.6 to 0.8 — the lowest in the country, alongside the east of England and the South West.
The figure means infections may be falling anywhere between five and eight per cent each day.
However, separate figures released last week showed the percentage of people testing positive for coronavirus in London remains the highest of any English region.
Data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed around 1 in 63 Londoners were infected with the virus last week.
That compares to an estimated 1 in 80 people who contracted the virus in England as a whole in the week to 6 February, according to ONS figures.
Listen to our daily City View podcast as we chart the economic fallout and business impact of the coronavirus pandemic.
London coronavirus cases by borough (in alphabetical order)
Data sourced from Public Health England, accurate as of 4pm on Tuesday 2 March
Boroughs Rate of infection per 100,000 people in last 7 days Total confirmed cases since start of pandemic Barking and Dagenham 86 22,925 Barnet 75 29,569 Bexley 58 21,812 Brent 91 27,577 Bromley 48 23,857 Camden 42 13,683 Croydon 73 30,213 Ealing 123 29,807 Enfield 48 29,217 Greenwich 55 21,769 Hackney and City of London 57 21,234 Hammersmith and Fulham 76 12,564 Haringey 58 20,345 Harrow 95 19,917 Havering 65 26,383 Hillingdon 97 25,287 Hounslow 115 23,817 Islington 43 14,574 Kensington and Chelsea 43 8,643 Kingston upon Thames 47 11,764 Lambeth 49 23,625 Lewisham 39 21,226 Merton 79 15,719 Newham 61 34,574 Redbridge 72 31,965 Richmond upon Thames 55 10,430 Southwark 42 21,947 Sutton 80 15,509 Tower Hamlets 53 28,074 Waltham Forest 52 24,325 Wandsworth 63 21,377 Westminster 41 13,577
Before the Open newsletter: Start your day with the City View podcast and key market data


cityam--2020-08-13--Report: Apple to bundle services under ‘Apple One’ subscription

Apple is reportedly planning to launch a range of subscription bundles that will give customers access to a selection of its digital services at a lower price .
The bundles , dubbed Apple One , are set to be launched as early as October alongside the new generation of iPhones , Bloomberg reported , citing people with knowledge of the matter .
The subscriptions would allow users to bring together a selection of Apple services — such as Apple Music , Apple News and Apple TV Plus — under one monthly payment .
The move is aimed at encouraging customers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ according to the report .
The tech giant has been gradually shifting its focus towards subscription services amid slowing sales of its flagship hardware products such as iPhones .
Apple posted service revenue of $ 13.2bn ( £10.1bn ) in its fiscal third quarter last month — up almost 15 per cent on 2019 .
Chief executive Tim Cook added that the company now has 550m paying subscribers on its platform , compared to 515m in the previous quarter .
However , handsets remain the Silicon Valley giant ’ s main source of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 26.4bn in the third quarter .
The launch of a combined subscription would mark the latest move by tech companies to boost revenue by tying together different services .
Amazon has employed a similar strategy by wrapping its free delivery , streaming and cloud storage into its Prime subscription .
Apple has announced that the launch date of its next smartphone model — the iPhone 12 — will be pushed back from September to October as a result of the coronavirus crisis .

Report: Apple to bundle services under ‘Apple One’ subscription
Apple is reportedly planning to launch a range of subscription bundles that will give customers access to a selection of its digital services at a lower price.
The bundles, dubbed Apple One, are set to be launched as early as October alongside the new generation of iPhones, Bloomberg reported, citing people with knowledge of the matter.
The subscriptions would allow users to bring together a selection of Apple services — such as Apple Music, Apple News and Apple TV Plus — under one monthly payment.
The move is aimed at encouraging customers to subscribe to more Apple services, according to the report.
The tech giant has been gradually shifting its focus towards subscription services amid slowing sales of its flagship hardware products such as iPhones.
Apple posted service revenue of $13.2bn (£10.1bn) in its fiscal third quarter last month — up almost 15 per cent on 2019.
Chief executive Tim Cook added that the company now has 550m paying subscribers on its platform, compared to 515m in the previous quarter.
However, handsets remain the Silicon Valley giant’s main source of revenue, with iPhones pulling in $26.4bn in the third quarter.
The launch of a combined subscription would mark the latest move by tech companies to boost revenue by tying together different services.
Amazon has employed a similar strategy by wrapping its free delivery, streaming and cloud storage into its Prime subscription.
Apple has announced that the launch date of its next smartphone model — the iPhone 12 — will be pushed back from September to October as a result of the coronavirus crisis.


cityam--2020-08-13--Markets live: FTSE 100 sinks ahead of US jobless claims

The FTSE 100 opened in the red this morning as traders braced for the latest US weekly jobless claims due out later today .
The blue-chip index dropped 1.06 per cent to 6,213 points when markets opened , before easing to a 0.88 per cent fall shortly before midday .
Read more : Rishi Sunak says ‘ hard times are here ’ as UK plunges into worst recession on record The hesitant start marks an end to a recent bullish run for the FTSE , which has benefited from optimism over a US stimulus package .
The nerves spread elsewhere @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Dax slipping 0.17 per cent to 13,035 points and the French benchmark Cac 40 down 0.10 per cent at 5,068 .
It comes a day after the FTSE 100 shrugged off bleak UK GDP data that showed Britain fell to its worst ever recession in the first half of the year .
Traders have also been buoyed by optimism about a US stimulus package and capital gains tax cut as well as hopes of a coronavirus vaccine .
Markets have also set aside jitters about US-China tensions in recent sessions .
But the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ attention now turned to the US weekly jobless figures due to be published this afternoon .
A further 1.1m workers are expected to have claimed for unemployment benefits in the latest week ’ s data .
This marks a slowing on the previous weekly figures , but is significantly higher than pre-pandemic numbers .
Moreover , optimism about a US stimulus package has also been hit after Speaker Nancy Pelosi warned Democrats and the Trump administration were “ miles apart ” on a new fiscal policy .
“ Despite this week ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of concern about the prospect for any sort of agreement between US policymakers , ” said Michael Hewson , chief markets analyst at CMC Markets .
This morning ’ s losses reversed a large portion of yesterday ’ s gains on the FTSE 100 as bullish sentiment appeared to falter .
“ It seems that investors aren ’ t feeling quite so confident in the FTSE now that the dust has settled on the latest GDP data , ” said Connor Campbell , financial analyst at Spreadex .
But the blue-chip index was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with BP , Shell , Diageo , Astrazeneca , GSK and Legal & General among the companies to go ex-dividend .
“ A combination of some big stocks trading without the rights to their dividend and a bit of profit taking after a strong run for equities so far in August saw the FTSE 100 on the back foot on Thursday morning , ” said Russ Mould , investment director at AJ Bell .
Read more : Weekly US jobless claims beat expectations and drop to 1.2m Funeral provider Dignity led the FTSE @ @ @ @ @ @ @ per cent in morning trading .
It came after the competition watchdog said it would hold off on price controls in the funeral sector .
Watches of Switzerland followed close behind , with shares jumping more than 25 per cent following a strong set of interim results .
The luxury retailer said sales in June and July were up on the previous year as it bounced back from a sharp drop during lockdown .
By contrast , National Express dropped almost 13 per cent after it posted a £30m loss for the first @ @ @ @ @ @ @ figures came after the coach operator suffered an 80 per cent drop in passenger demand due to the Covid-19 crisis .
National Express has ramped up its liquidity in a bid to counteract the downturn , and has placed more than 40,000 employees on furlough .

Markets live: Wall Street falters and FTSE 100 sinks as US jobless claims fall
Fauci said the US could see its “general population” vaccinated from April
Wall Street faltered and the FTSE 100 finished lower today as bullish sentiment faded and traders turned their attention to US jobless data.
The blue-chip index closed down 1.30 per cent to 6,198 points, reversing gains earlier in the week that saw it smash through the 6,200 mark.
Rally runs out
The hesitant start marks an end to a recent bullish run for the FTSE, which has benefited from optimism over a US stimulus package.
The nerves spread elsewhere in Europe, with Germany’s Dax slipping 0.38 per cent to 13,009 points and the French benchmark Cac 40 closing down 0.61 per cent at 5,042.
It comes a day after the FTSE 100 shrugged off bleak UK GDP data that showed Britain fell to its worst ever recession in the first half of the year.
Traders have also been buoyed by optimism about a US stimulus package and capital gains tax cut as well as hopes of a coronavirus vaccine.
Markets have also set aside jitters about US-China tensions in recent sessions.
Stimulus fears return
But the bullish sentiment stalled this morning, as traders turned their attention to US jobless data.
Moreover, optimism about a US stimulus package has also been hit after Speaker Nancy Pelosi warned Democrats and the Trump administration were “miles apart” on a new fiscal policy.
“Despite this week’s optimistic tone, there remains an undercurrent of concern about the prospect for any sort of agreement between US policymakers,” said Michael Hewson, chief markets analyst at CMC Markets.
Wall Street wavers
There were mixed feelings on Wall Street as markets opened in New York this afternoon.
The S&P 500 ticked up a marginal 0.04 per cent in early trading, slamming the brakes on its rapid ascent towards new record highs.
The Dow Jones was down 0.18 per cent, but the tech-heavy Nasdaq proved resilient with a rise of 0.80 per cent.
Traders were buoyed by better-than-expected US jobless data earlier this afternoon, which showed weekly jobless claims fell below 1m for the first time since the start of the coronavirus pandemic.
“The initial jobless claims number was much better than the market anticipation and this has pushed the equity futures higher,” said Naeem Aslam, chief market analyst at Ava Trade.
“The fact is that the US economy has become more resilient to pandemic and it is trying its best to find its way out.”
But this confidence failed to translate into market open, with uncertainty over a US stimulus package tempering gains.
“Let’s not overstate how great the unemployment claims figure was,” said Connor Campbell, financial analyst at Spreadex.
“At 963,000, it is still far more swollen than anything seen pre-pandemic. Nevertheless, it is another move in the right direction, shaving more than 150,000 off of analysts’ estimates.”
Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets, said: “At the end of July there was much handwringing at the prospect of the loss of the weekly $600 unemployment enhancement, and the effect it might have on the US jobs market. Yet here we are, two weeks into August and the weekly claims numbers have continued to fall, as have the continuing claims numbers.”
“With US stock markets at record highs and the jobless claims numbers still on a downward track, US politicians have little incentive to arrive at any sort of new stimulus deal, and so the procrastination is likely to go on, until one or other of these two factors goes into reverse.”
Ex-dividend dent
This morning’s losses reversed a large portion of yesterday’s gains on the FTSE 100 as bullish sentiment appeared to falter.
“It seems that investors aren’t feeling quite so confident in the FTSE now that the dust has settled on the latest GDP data,” said Connor Campbell, financial analyst at Spreadex.
But the blue-chip index was also dragged down by ex-dividend stock, with BP, Shell, Diageo, Astrazeneca, GSK and Legal & General among the companies to go ex-dividend.
“A combination of some big stocks trading without the rights to their dividend and a bit of profit taking after a strong run for equities so far in August saw the FTSE 100 on the back foot on Thursday morning,” said Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell.
FTSE risers and fallers
Funeral provider Dignity led the FTSE risers today, soaring more than 38 per cent in morning trading.
It came after the competition watchdog said it would hold off on price controls in the funeral sector.
Watches of Switzerland followed close behind, with shares jumping more than 25 per cent following a strong set of interim results.
The luxury retailer said sales in June and July were up on the previous year as it bounced back from a sharp drop during lockdown.
By contrast, National Express dropped almost 13 per cent after it posted a £30m loss for the first half of the year.
The downbeat figures came after the coach operator suffered an 80 per cent drop in passenger demand due to the Covid-19 crisis.
National Express has ramped up its liquidity in a bid to counteract the downturn, and has placed more than 40,000 employees on furlough.


cityam--2020-08-13--Forecasting the US election: should investors prepare for a new president?

Our analysis shows that the US presidential race may be closer than it first appears , but investors should at least be questioning what a Biden win will mean for markets and policy .
When it comes to forecasting the US election , on the face of it both macro modelling and polls point to a comfortable win for Joe Biden .
However , when you adjust the polls to account for the lessons learned from 2016 ’ s failures , it shows that the presidential race could be closer than first anticipated .
The economic modelling approach is based @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a referendum on how well the incumbent president has handled economic and non-economic issues .
This uses historical relationships to forecast the popular vote using an economic variable and a popularity variable as inputs .
We use two models that did particularly well forecasting the 2016 vote [ 1 ] .
With Trump ’ s approval rating at a dismal 38 % – according to Gallup – and the US economy in recession ( chart 1 & 2 ) , it is no surprise that poor inputs lead to a poor output .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ 43 % of the popular vote .
But in 2016 , Trump won the electoral college vote but lost the popular vote .
Could these models be tripped up again ?
Yes , but it ’ s unlikely ; in theory , a president can win the electoral college with only 23 % of the popular vote .
But in reality the lowest popular vote that has won the electoral vote was 47.8 % all the way back in 1888 .
Even so , Trump ’ s win in 2016 shows the importance @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , which leads us nicely to our second approach .
• Learn : Why digital infrastructure could emerge stronger from Covid-19 • Read : Investors crave knowledge – but where do they find it ?
This widely used approach aggregates polls to forecast the outcome .
We use the data from poll aggregator Real Clear Politics and focus on the “ battleground ” states .
We assume all other states will vote in-line with how they voted ( consistently ) in the last four elections .
This assumption does not come without risk @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as a Republican state , but it is currently one of the most highly contested states in the polls .
Polls show Biden ahead in almost all battleground states ( chart 3 ) , with Ohio , Indiana and Iowa being the exceptions .
When we collate the implied electoral college votes , in the form of leaning states , this suggests that Biden would win 62 % of the vote .
If we were to allow for more uncertainty , by including “ toss up ” states ( with a spread below @ @ @ @ @ @ @ winning 57 % of the vote .
All in all , still a fairly comfortable Biden majority .
But polls got it wrong in 2016 Investors will not forget that the polls got it wrong in 2016 .
In particular , state polls underestimated support for Trump in the Upper Midwest including key swing states like Pennsylvania , Michigan and Wisconsin .
In hindsight , pollsters have put this down to three reasons : • The “ shy Trump Vote ” ; those who supported Trump for president but did not admit this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ last minute decision , choosing to vote for Trump extremely close to the election • Oversampling college-educated voters as they were more likely to answer the surveys Despite an election post-mortem , it is unclear whether pollsters have significantly changed their approach .
Some university pollsters who had not done so before , are now weighting their results by education .
But some pollsters are not .
Pollsters point out that last minute voting decisions is not a polling problem and is not something that can be “ fixed ” , but only @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Finally , the “ shy Trump vote ” does not reflect a weakness in the polling itself .
We think the “ shy Trump vote ” will be a less of a factor this time around given Trump has a track record serving one term as President , giving people more confidence to be open in their support .
We can make adjustments to the polls for the other two factors .
To capture the last minute decision-makers , we assume that anyone who does not pick a candidate in the polls @ @ @ @ @ @ @ white non-college voters .
Though this lowers the Biden spread amongst battleground states , it is not enough to flip any states to Trump , leaving Biden with 62 % of the vote .
To counter oversampling problem , we oversample white non-college educated workers to counteract this .
This flips North Carolina and Nevada , but still points to Biden getting 58 % of the vote .
When doing both adjustments , this flips many more states and points to a Trump victory , leaving Biden with only 41 % of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have made no changes since 2016 , the election is likely closer than what the headline polls suggest .
But still , fairly aggressive assumptions are needed to point to a Trump win .
Stepping back , our work shows that investors should prepare for a Biden win , or at the very least , question what a Biden win means for policy and markets .
• You can discover more at Schroders insights and follow Schroders on twitter .
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Forecasting the US election: should investors prepare for a new president?
Getty Images
Our analysis shows that the US presidential race may be closer than it first appears, but investors should at least be questioning what a Biden win will mean for markets and policy.
When it comes to forecasting the US election, on the face of it both macro modelling and polls point to a comfortable win for Joe Biden.
However, when you adjust the polls to account for the lessons learned from 2016’s failures, it shows that the presidential race could be closer than first anticipated.
The first approach: macro modelling
The economic modelling approach is based on the idea that the election is a referendum on how well the incumbent president has handled economic and non-economic issues. This uses historical relationships to forecast the popular vote using an economic variable and a popularity variable as inputs. We use two models that did particularly well forecasting the 2016 vote[1].
With Trump’s approval rating at a dismal 38% – according to Gallup – and the US economy in recession (chart 1 & 2), it is no surprise that poor inputs lead to a poor output. These models point to Trump winning only 43% of the popular vote.
But in 2016, Trump won the electoral college vote but lost the popular vote. Could these models be tripped up again? Yes, but it’s unlikely; in theory, a president can win the electoral college with only 23% of the popular vote. But in reality the lowest popular vote that has won the electoral vote was 47.8% all the way back in 1888.
Even so, Trump’s win in 2016 shows the importance of understanding the electoral college voting system, which leads us nicely to our second approach.
Discover more:
The second approach: polling
This widely used approach aggregates polls to forecast the outcome. We use the data from poll aggregator Real Clear Politics and focus on the “battleground” states.
We assume all other states will vote in-line with how they voted (consistently) in the last four elections. This assumption does not come without risk – for example, we consider Texas as a Republican state, but it is currently one of the most highly contested states in the polls.
Polls show Biden ahead in almost all battleground states (chart 3), with Ohio, Indiana and Iowa being the exceptions. When we collate the implied electoral college votes, in the form of leaning states, this suggests that Biden would win 62% of the vote. If we were to allow for more uncertainty, by including “toss up” states (with a spread below 5), polls point to Biden winning 57% of the vote. All in all, still a fairly comfortable Biden majority.
But polls got it wrong in 2016
Investors will not forget that the polls got it wrong in 2016. In particular, state polls underestimated support for Trump in the Upper Midwest including key swing states like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. In hindsight, pollsters have put this down to three reasons:
The “shy Trump Vote”; those who supported Trump for president but did not admit this to pollsters
Those who made a last minute decision, choosing to vote for Trump extremely close to the election
Oversampling college-educated voters as they were more likely to answer the surveys
Despite an election post-mortem, it is unclear whether pollsters have significantly changed their approach. Some university pollsters who had not done so before, are now weighting their results by education. But some pollsters are not.
Pollsters point out that last minute voting decisions is not a polling problem and is not something that can be “fixed”, but only watched to gauge the level of uncertainty. Finally, the “shy Trump vote” does not reflect a weakness in the polling itself.
We think the “shy Trump vote” will be a less of a factor this time around given Trump has a track record serving one term as President, giving people more confidence to be open in their support. We can make adjustments to the polls for the other two factors.
To capture the last minute decision-makers, we assume that anyone who does not pick a candidate in the polls has Republican voting preferences – specifically of white non-college voters. Though this lowers the Biden spread amongst battleground states, it is not enough to flip any states to Trump, leaving Biden with 62% of the vote.
To counter oversampling problem, we oversample white non-college educated workers to counteract this. This flips North Carolina and Nevada, but still points to Biden getting 58% of the vote.
When doing both adjustments, this flips many more states and points to a Trump victory, leaving Biden with only 41% of the vote. So, assuming the pollsters have made no changes since 2016, the election is likely closer than what the headline polls suggest. But still, fairly aggressive assumptions are needed to point to a Trump win.
Stepping back, our work shows that investors should prepare for a Biden win, or at the very least, question what a Biden win means for policy and markets.
You can discover more at Schroders insights and follow Schroders on twitter.
[1] We use Lewis Beck & Tien (2016) & Erikson and Wlezien (2016).
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cityam--2020-08-13--Carlsberg warns on profit as sales slump

Carlsberg has issued a profit warning for 2020 as it forecasts disappointing sales in the second half of the year .
The Danish brewer saw a fall of 8.9 per cent in operating profits for the first half of 2020 and is expecting an overall drop of between 10 and 15 per cent for the whole year .
Read more : Carlsberg expects better than forecast profit as China trade bounces back It is significantly worse than expectations and the company has cited renewed lockdowns in China – one of its biggest markets – during the third quarter as a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ increase in marketing expenditure .
Carlsberg has also revealed it will suspend the second half of its share buyback programme due to Covid-19 and the uncertainty ahead .
Chief executive Cees ’ t Hart said all the brewer ’ s markets had been hit by the pandemic .
Read more : Carlsberg sales dip due to pub closures during lockdown “ Recognising that we ’ re faced with a new market reality , including changed consumer preferences and a reduced level of on-trade activity , we ’ re taking measures to adapt our @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Carlsberg ’ s share price slid by 4.7 per cent following the warning .

Carlsberg warns on profit as sales slump
Carlsberg warns on profit
Carlsberg has issued a profit warning for 2020 as it forecasts disappointing sales in the second half of the year.
The Danish brewer saw a fall of 8.9 per cent in operating profits for the first half of 2020 and is expecting an overall drop of between 10 and 15 per cent for the whole year.
It is significantly worse than expectations and the company has cited renewed lockdowns in China – one of its biggest markets – during the third quarter as a key reason, as well as an increase in marketing expenditure.
Carlsberg has also revealed it will suspend the second half of its share buyback programme due to Covid-19 and the uncertainty ahead.
Chief executive Cees’t Hart said all the brewer’s markets had been hit by the pandemic.
“Recognising that we’re faced with a new market reality, including changed consumer preferences and a reduced level of on-trade activity, we’re taking measures to adapt our business accordingly,” he said.
Carlsberg’s share price slid by 4.7 per cent following the warning.


cityam--2020-08-13--Dignity shares rocket after funeral cost controls dropped because of pandemic

Shares in funeral company Dignity surged nearly 40 per cent today after the Competition and Markets Authority ( CMA ) said it would not introduce price controls because of the coronavirus pandemic .
Dignity shares jumped 38 per cent to 540p .
The company said it was considering the CMA ’ s report in detail .
An investigation into the sector , focusing on funeral directors and crematoria services , was launched in March last year after a market study in 2018 revealed high prices were charged , taking advantage of grieving families .
“ Further change in the sector @ @ @ @ @ @ @ we were considering could not safely be introduced in the middle of a national emergency , ” CMA panel inquiry chair Martin Coleman said in a statement .
“ Our proposals will hold open the door to price controls when circumstances created by the pandemic change sufficiently to permit these to be considered , ” Coleman added .
In the short term , the CMA has provisionally decided that funeral directors and crematoria will be required to provide customers with information and prices of various services and packages they offer , and will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ financial data every quarter .
Dignity , which owns 800 funeral locations and operates 46 crematoria in Britain , reported last month an 11 per cent rise in profit as it conducted more funerals due to the pandemic , even as the average price per funeral fell as people chose simpler services .
Clive Whiley , executive chair of Dignity , said : “ Dignity has engaged openly and collaboratively with the Competition and Markets Authority throughout the funerals market investigation .
We will take the time to fully assess the CMA ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and will continue to constructively engage directly with the CMA through the statutory process.
” The National Society of Allied and Independent Funeral Directors ( SAIF ) said in a statement that it “ cautiously welcomed ” the CMA ’ s findings .
“ It has been an incredibly challenging year for the funeral profession , which has faced a combination of increased costs linked to PPE , additional staff hours , and temporary mortuary storage , and reduced funeral prices as a result of restricted funerals , ” it said .
“ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cooperating with the CMA and partners across the funeral sector in the coming months to establish a regulatory regime that works with a market that has changed beyond recognition because of the effects of covid-19 .
”

Dignity shares rocket after funeral cost controls dropped because of pandemic
Shares in funeral company Dignity surged nearly 40 per cent today after the Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) said it would not introduce price controls because of the coronavirus pandemic.
Dignity shares jumped 38 per cent to 540p. The company said it was considering the CMA’s report in detail.
An investigation into the sector, focusing on funeral directors and crematoria services, was launched in March last year after a market study in 2018 revealed high prices were charged, taking advantage of grieving families.
“Further change in the sector is necessary but some of the remedies we were considering could not safely be introduced in the middle of a national emergency,” CMA panel inquiry chair Martin Coleman said in a statement.
“Our proposals will hold open the door to price controls when circumstances created by the pandemic change sufficiently to permit these to be considered,” Coleman added.
In the short term, the CMA has provisionally decided that funeral directors and crematoria will be required to provide customers with information and prices of various services and packages they offer, and will also need to give the regulator key financial data every quarter.
Dignity, which owns 800 funeral locations and operates 46 crematoria in Britain, reported last month an 11 per cent rise in profit as it conducted more funerals due to the pandemic, even as the average price per funeral fell as people chose simpler services.
Clive Whiley, executive chair of Dignity, said: “Dignity has engaged openly and collaboratively with the Competition and Markets Authority throughout the funerals market investigation. We will take the time to fully assess the CMA’s Provisional Decision Report and its recommendations and will continue to constructively engage directly with the CMA through the statutory process.”
The National Society of Allied and Independent Funeral Directors (SAIF) said in a statement that it “cautiously welcomed” the CMA’s findings.
“It has been an incredibly challenging year for the funeral profession, which has faced a combination of increased costs linked to PPE, additional staff hours, and temporary mortuary storage, and reduced funeral prices as a result of restricted funerals,” it said.
“As such, SAIF looks forward to cooperating with the CMA and partners across the funeral sector in the coming months to establish a regulatory regime that works with a market that has changed beyond recognition because of the effects of covid-19.”
Sam Tyrer, MD of Co-op Funeralcare, said: “The Co-op has taken a range of steps to significantly reduce funeral price and as the CMA notes, the market has adapted at pace to respond to the devastating loss caused by coronavirus.
“We have fully engaged with the CMA through the process and look forward to continuing to do so in the coming months to secure the best outcome for bereaved families.”


cityam--2020-08-13--Thyssenkrupp mulls further job cuts as steel division posts huge loss

German steel giant Thyssenkrupp today raised the prospect of further job cuts as it reported a €2bn loss for the first nine months of the year .
The firm has already made 6,000 roles redundant under an ongoing savings programme , but finance chief Klaus Keysberg told reporters today that more cuts were being discussed .
Read more : Renishaw shares fall 10 per cent after profit plunges 97 per cent The majority of the financial hit came from the conglomerate ’ s steel division , which is facing losses of up to €1m .
The weak performance has increased @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fix the division imminently .
A number of plans for the division have been drawn up , among which is the possibility that the division could be combined with a rival such as Tata Steel or Germany ’ s Salzgitter .
Keysberg did not comment on the plans , save to say that the company was considering all options .
“ No steelmaker is making a profit at the moment .
But in terms of performance , we ’ re certainly lagging the competition ” , he told a press conference .
Before @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with the City View podcast and key market data Thyssenkrupp , which is Europe ’ s second biggest steel maker behind Arcelor Mittal , is under pressure due to a combination of cheap Chinese imports , high raw material prices and weak automotive demand .
Shares in the conglomerate fell nearly 16 per cent during the morning ’ s trading .
Earlier this year the firm sold its elevator business to a private sector group for €17bn , which chief executive Martina Merz said it would use to stabilize the business .
“ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ costs under control and secure liquidity .
As a result we came through the crisis slightly better than initially feared in the third quarter overall , ” said Merz .
Read more : UK job vacancies see biggest weekly rise in 2020 “ While we are now seeing signs of stabilization , the forthcoming restructurings and cleaning up of the balance .
“ With the proceeds from the elevator transaction we can now at last systematically address these overdue measures .
”

Thyssenkrupp mulls further job cuts as steel division posts huge loss
German steel giant Thyssenkrupp today raised the prospect of further job cuts as it reported a €2bn loss for the first nine months of the year.
The firm has already made 6,000 roles redundant under an ongoing savings programme, but finance chief Klaus Keysberg told reporters today that more cuts were being discussed.
The majority of the financial hit came from the conglomerate’s steel division, which is facing losses of up to €1m.
The weak performance has increased the pressure on Thyssenkrupp to sell or fix the division imminently.
A number of plans for the division have been drawn up, among which is the possibility that the division could be combined with a rival such as Tata Steel or Germany’s Salzgitter.
Keysberg did not comment on the plans, save to say that the company was considering all options.
“No steelmaker is making a profit at the moment. But in terms of performance, we’re certainly lagging the competition”, he told a press conference.
Before the Open newsletter: Start your day with the City View podcast and key market data
Thyssenkrupp, which is Europe’s second biggest steel maker behind Arcelor Mittal, is under pressure due to a combination of cheap Chinese imports, high raw material prices and weak automotive demand.
Shares in the conglomerate fell nearly 16 per cent during the morning’s trading.
Earlier this year the firm sold its elevator business to a private sector group for €17bn, which chief executive Martina Merz said it would use to stabilize the business.
“We have worked hard to keep our costs under control and secure liquidity. As a result we came through the crisis slightly better than initially feared in the third quarter overall,” said Merz.
“While we are now seeing signs of stabilization, the forthcoming restructurings and cleaning up of the balance.
“With the proceeds from the elevator transaction we can now at last systematically address these overdue measures.”


cityam--2020-08-13--Renishaw shares fall 10 per cent after profit plunges 97 per cent

Shares in Ftse 250 engineering company Renishaw fell 10 per cent today after it said profit collapsed and revenue fell @ @ @ @ @ macroeconomic conditions and the coronavirus pandemic .
Renishaw said statutory profit fell 97 per cent @ @ @ @ @ last year The company said revenue fell 11 per cent to £510.2m in the year @ @ @ @ @ more : Shares in UK engineer Renishaw fall as profit slumps Renishaw ’ s shares @ @ @ @ @ 4,750p this morning .
“ Revenue was lower in all regions , with the challenging @ @ @ @ @ year and the covid-19 pandemic impacting most product lines , ” the company said .
@ @ @ @ @ said : “ It has been a particularly challenging year for the group and we @ @ @ @ @ commitment our employees have shown during these exceptional times .
“ Looking ahead , there @ @ @ @ @ grow our business , due to our new product pipeline , excellent manufacturing and commercial @ @ @ @ @ people .
”

Renishaw shares fall 10 per cent after profit plunges 97 per cent
Shares in Ftse 250 engineering company Renishaw fell 10 per cent today after it said profit collapsed and revenue fell which it blamed on poor macroeconomic conditions and the coronavirus pandemic.
Renishaw said statutory profit fell 97 per cent to £3.2m compared with £109.9m last year
The company said revenue fell 11 per cent to £510.2m in the year to 30 June.
Renishaw’s shares fell 10 per cent to 4,750p this morning.
“Revenue was lower in all regions, with the challenging global macroeconomic conditions throughout the year and the covid-19 pandemic impacting most product lines,” the company said.
Executive chairman Sir David McMurtry said: “It has been a particularly challenging year for the group and we are extremely proud of the commitment our employees have shown during these exceptional times.
“Looking ahead, there are many exciting opportunities to grow our business, due to our new product pipeline, excellent manufacturing and commercial operations, and highly skilled people.”