cityam--2020-10-27--Post-furlough job losses hit young and minority workers hardest, study shows

One in five young people and more than one in five black , Asian and minority ethnic ( BAME ) workers who were furloughed during lockdown have since lost their jobs , according to a new report .
A survey of more than 6,000 Brits by the Resolution Foundation think tank showed that while the furlough scheme curbed unemployment levels in the early phase of the pandemic , the winding down of job support has laid bare the true scale of the country ’ s jobs crisis .
Read more : Nine per cent of employees on furlough as scheme @ @ @ @ @ @ @ surveyed employees who had been furloughed are now back at work , while a third are still fully or partially furloughed .
But almost one in 10 workers have lost their job altogether after government support came to an end .
The post-furlough fall into unemployment was most common among 18 to 24-year-olds , with 19 per cent of this age group losing their job after being placed on leave .
BAME workers and those previously working on insecure contracts were even harder hit , as 22 per cent were made redundant .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ unemployment rate of seven per cent for September — well above the latest official figures of 4.5 per cent in the three months to August .
For young people this would rise to 20 per cent , marking the highest level of youth unemployment in four decades .
“ The first eight months of the Covid crisis have been marked by an almighty economic shock and unprecedented support that has cushioned the impact in terms of people ’ s livelihoods , ” said Kathleen Henehan , senior research and policy analyst at the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ nature of Britain ’ s jobs crisis is starting to reveal itself.
” The report also painted a bleak picture of the declining re-employment hopes for those laid off after furlough .
Under half of those who have lost their jobs since March had found new work by September , falling to just one in three among young people and 36 per cent in the hard-hit hospitality and leisure sectors .

Post-furlough job losses hit young and minority workers hardest, study shows
Just a third of young people who lost their jobs due to Covid-19 have found new work
One in five young people and more than one in five black, Asian and minority ethnic (BAME) workers who were furloughed during lockdown have since lost their jobs, according to a new report.
A survey of more than 6,000 Brits by the Resolution Foundation think tank showed that while the furlough scheme curbed unemployment levels in the early phase of the pandemic, the winding down of job support has laid bare the true scale of the country’s jobs crisis.
The report found half of surveyed employees who had been furloughed are now back at work, while a third are still fully or partially furloughed.
But almost one in 10 workers have lost their job altogether after government support came to an end.
The post-furlough fall into unemployment was most common among 18 to 24-year-olds, with 19 per cent of this age group losing their job after being placed on leave.
BAME workers and those previously working on insecure contracts were even harder hit, as 22 per cent were made redundant.
The report’s findings imply an unemployment rate of seven per cent for September — well above the latest official figures of 4.5 per cent in the three months to August.
For young people this would rise to 20 per cent, marking the highest level of youth unemployment in four decades.
“The first eight months of the Covid crisis have been marked by an almighty economic shock and unprecedented support that has cushioned the impact in terms of people’s livelihoods,” said Kathleen Henehan, senior research and policy analyst at the Resolution Foundation.
“But the true nature of Britain’s jobs crisis is starting to reveal itself.”
The report also painted a bleak picture of the declining re-employment hopes for those laid off after furlough.
Under half of those who have lost their jobs since March had found new work by September, falling to just one in three among young people and 36 per cent in the hard-hit hospitality and leisure sectors.


cityam--2020-10-27--Will Tao Geoghegan Hart's Giro d'Italia win get more people in Britain cycling?

Tao Geoghegan Hart ’ s surprise victory at the Giro d ’ Italia on Sunday was just the latest success story in a golden era for British cycling .
Coinciding with the unprecedented Olympic medal tallies of Team GB and the Grand Tours won by Sir Bradley Wiggins , Chris Froome and Geraint Thomas has been a surge in people picking up bikes for both recreation and travel .
So can Geohgan Hart ’ s first major title attract even more people to cycling ?
Is there even room for more of a bike boom in Britain ?
And what @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and grassroots national participation ?
Read more : The Week in Sportbiz : Rugby fans in ticket rush for Lions ’ Japanese Test , plus Uefa ’ s Euro 2020 delay silver lining Unquestionably , British domination of Olympic track cycling and a gradual takeover of the most prestigious road races has raised the profile of the sport to new levels since the turn of the century .
At the same time , the number of people taking part in cycling has rocketed .
A Sport England study months after the London 2012 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cycling regularly increased by 200,000 that year .
It passed 2m in 2016 , according to British Cycling .
And there were encouraging signs among commuters , too .
Those who sometimes cycled for travel increased their annual mileage by 55 per cent between 2002 and 2019 , a government report found .
Of course , there were other factors besides the now-regular Olympic golds and Tour de France wins .
Sky ’ s investment in British Cycling , which it sponsored for eight years from 2008 , and later its all-conquering road @ @ @ @ @ @ @ but included targeted efforts at encouraging mass participation .
Questions may continue to be asked about the legitimacy of some methods employed at British Cycling and Team Sky , but that has likely had little bearing on the casual cyclist .
The government ’ s Cycle To Work scheme , meanwhile , made commuting by bike more affordable when it was launched in 1999 .
Others trace the upsurge of cycling back to Chris Boardman ’ s Olympic gold at Barcelona in 1992 and the London Underground and bus bombings of 2005 .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ least , that unassuming Hackney 25-year-old Geoghegan Hart ’ s Giro triumph is a fillip for the sport domestically .
“ Tao ’ s victory is yet another incredible moment that the sport has had over the last 20-30 years , ” says Nick Chamberlin , policy manager at British Cycling .
“ People love watching sport .
It makes us feel good about ourselves .
“ This is just another remarkable moment showing how wonderful it is to have elite sport back for people to enjoy and forget about some of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ they watch it.
” “ You need riders , ” says Richard Baker , co-managing director at M & C Saatchi Sport and Entertainment .
“ Sure , Ineos is a big team .
But cycling teams , like motorsport teams , are quite transient entities .
It ’ s really the drivers or riders who give the teams their reach and relevance .
“ Your everyday casual cycling fans — which , frankly , is what precipitates these booms — are fans of a rider , and that ’ s what you @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s gold at Barcelona ‘ 92 triggered the investment that led to Olympic domination , although Baker hesitates to attribute greater participation to Team GB and Wiggins .
“ As soon as you ’ ve got national heroes you ’ ve got this huge new sport — in the same way snooker became big in the ‘ 90s and darts in the ‘ 00s .
“ If you expose people to the protagonists of any sport , they can get behind it .
Whether that leads to participation… there ’ s a big @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , says there is evidence that elite success encourages amateurs to keep riding , which has a trickle-down effect on those using bikes for travel .
“ It gives those who are already riding reasons to want to get out on their bikes , ” says Chamberlin .
“ Broader than that , there ’ s a very strong correlation between how much cycling people do recreationally and the likelihood of them considering cycling for transport .
“ We know it ’ s only when people get up to a weekly recreational habit @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ ll consider cycling for transport.
” We may have already reached Peak Cycling in the UK , says Baker : “ I don ’ t think cycling in itself is going to get any bigger .
But I think it could get back to where it was in 2012.
” This year ’ s unique circumstances — lockdowns and a rearranged sporting calendar — make it harder to predict whether participation will boom again .
“ We see a strong correlation between those big sporting events , with 2012 absolutely being the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , ” says Chamberlin .
“ It ’ s no coincidence that spikes in participation are linked around major sporting success in the summer .
“ With this rejigged sporting calendar and the Giro as an October event , will we get the same spike in six months ’ time when we ’ re looking at participation this winter ?
We ’ ll see.
” In the first three months of lockdown , the number of people cycling for leisure or sport hit 7.2m , compared to 6.1m for the same period in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ quieter , one of the very few positives of a truly awful time , all sorts of people felt more confident about getting out and riding , ” says Chamberlin .
“ That just shows it is absolutely worth persevering with trying to improve the conditions for people to ride bikes .
“ If we can , we know people do want to ride their bikes , and that ’ s got to be a good thing for the health and wellbeing of the country.
” And as for the Geoghegan Hart factor @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will inspire those people already riding to keep riding .
”

Will Tao Geoghegan Hart’s Giro d’Italia win get more people in Britain cycling?
Hackney rider Tao Geoghegan Hart claimed his first major win at the Giro d’Italia on Sunday
Tao Geoghegan Hart’s surprise victory at the Giro d’Italia on Sunday was just the latest success story in a golden era for British cycling.
Coinciding with the unprecedented Olympic medal tallies of Team GB and the Grand Tours won by Sir Bradley Wiggins, Chris Froome and Geraint Thomas has been a surge in people picking up bikes for both recreation and travel.
So can Geohgan Hart’s first major title attract even more people to cycling? Is there even room for more of a bike boom in Britain? And what exactly is the relationship between elite glory and grassroots national participation?
Unquestionably, British domination of Olympic track cycling and a gradual takeover of the most prestigious road races has raised the profile of the sport to new levels since the turn of the century.
At the same time, the number of people taking part in cycling has rocketed. A Sport England study months after the London 2012 Olympics found that the number of people cycling regularly increased by 200,000 that year. It passed 2m in 2016, according to British Cycling.
And there were encouraging signs among commuters, too. Those who sometimes cycled for travel increased their annual mileage by 55 per cent between 2002 and 2019, a government report found.
Sky, Cycle To Work and Boardman
Of course, there were other factors besides the now-regular Olympic golds and Tour de France wins.
Sky’s investment in British Cycling, which it sponsored for eight years from 2008, and later its all-conquering road team not only helped fund elite success but included targeted efforts at encouraging mass participation.
Questions may continue to be asked about the legitimacy of some methods employed at British Cycling and Team Sky, but that has likely had little bearing on the casual cyclist.
The government’s Cycle To Work scheme, meanwhile, made commuting by bike more affordable when it was launched in 1999.
Others trace the upsurge of cycling back to Chris Boardman’s Olympic gold at Barcelona in 1992 and the London Underground and bus bombings of 2005.
Cycling ‘needs riders like Geoghegan Hart’
Everyone can agree, at the very least, that unassuming Hackney 25-year-old Geoghegan Hart’s Giro triumph is a fillip for the sport domestically.
“Tao’s victory is yet another incredible moment that the sport has had over the last 20-30 years,” says Nick Chamberlin, policy manager at British Cycling.
“People love watching sport. It makes us feel good about ourselves.
“This is just another remarkable moment showing how wonderful it is to have elite sport back for people to enjoy and forget about some of the problems of life for the short while they watch it.”
“You need riders,” says Richard Barker, co-managing director at M&C Saatchi Sport and Entertainment.
“Sure, Ineos is a big team. But cycling teams, like motorsport teams, are quite transient entities. It’s really the drivers or riders who give the teams their reach and relevance.
“Your everyday casual cycling fans — which, frankly, is what precipitates these booms — are fans of a rider, and that’s what you need to maintain it.”
Does elite success translate into particpation?
Boardman’s gold at Barcelona ‘92 triggered the investment that led to Olympic domination, although Barker hesitates to attribute greater participation to Team GB and Wiggins.
“As soon as you’ve got national heroes you’ve got this huge new sport — in the same way snooker became big in the ‘90s and darts in the ‘00s.
“If you expose people to the protagonists of any sport, they can get behind it. Whether that leads to participation… there’s a big leap there.”
British Cycling, however, says there is evidence that elite success encourages amateurs to keep riding, which has a trickle-down effect on those using bikes for travel.
“It gives those who are already riding reasons to want to get out on their bikes,” says Chamberlin.
“Broader than that, there’s a very strong correlation between how much cycling people do recreationally and the likelihood of them considering cycling for transport.
“We know it’s only when people get up to a weekly recreational habit that it is much more likely they’ll consider cycling for transport.”
Have we reached Peak Cycling?
We may have already reached Peak Cycling in the UK, says Barker: “I don’t think cycling in itself is going to get any bigger. But I think it could get back to where it was in 2012.”
This year’s unique circumstances — lockdowns and a rearranged sporting calendar — make it harder to predict whether participation will boom again.
“We see a strong correlation between those big sporting events, with 2012 absolutely being the pinnacle of the sport and participation numbers,” says Chamberlin.
“It’s no coincidence that spikes in participation are linked around major sporting success in the summer.
“With this rejigged sporting calendar and the Giro as an October event, will we get the same spike in six months’ time when we’re looking at participation this winter? We’ll see.”
Sport England’s latest figures offer grounds for optimism.
In the first three months of lockdown, the number of people cycling for leisure or sport hit 7.2m, compared to 6.1m for the same period in 2019.
“When our roads were quieter, one of the very few positives of a truly awful time, all sorts of people felt more confident about getting out and riding,” says Chamberlin.
“That just shows it is absolutely worth persevering with trying to improve the conditions for people to ride bikes.
“If we can, we know people do want to ride their bikes, and that’s got to be a good thing for the health and wellbeing of the country.”
And as for the Geoghegan Hart factor, Chamberlain says: “This victory will inspire those people already riding to keep riding.”


cityam--2020-10-27--Microsoft beats revenue forecasts on cloud computing growth

Microsoft posted a rise in revenue for the first quarter as the ongoing shift to home working helped drive up demand for its cloud computing services .
Microsoft reported revenue of $ 37.2bn ( £28.5bn ) for the three months to the end of September , up 12 per cent on the same period last year and ahead of analysts ’ forecasts .
Operating profit jumped by a quarter over the period to $ 15.9bn .
Read more : Microsoft boss warns against rapid transition to working from home Shares in Microsoft were flat in after-hours trading .
The tech @ @ @ @ @ @ @ demand for its cloud services amid a shift in home working .
Microsoft said revenue in its intelligent cloud division jumped 20 per cent to $ 13bn over the quarter , with 48 per cent growth in its Azure service .
Legacy tech firms such as Microsoft have increasingly shifted their focus to cloud computing amid pressure from younger rivals such as Amazon and Google .
Earlier this month IBM announced plans to spin off its IT infrastructure business as it doubles down on its more profitable cloud unit .
Microsoft also reported @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and business processes division as revenue from its Office commercial products and cloud services rose .
The company ’ s personal computing division , which includes Windows software and Xbox products , grew six per cent .
Read more : Microsoft buys Elder Scrolls and Fallout maker for $ 7.5bn “ The next decade of economic performance for every business will be defined by the speed of their digital transformation , ” said Microsoft chief executive Satya Nadella .
“ We are innovating across our full modern tech stack to help our customers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , increase agility , and reduce costs .
”

Microsoft beats revenue forecasts on cloud computing growth
Microsoft posted a rise in revenue for the first quarter as the ongoing shift to home working helped drive up demand for its cloud computing services.
Microsoft reported revenue of $37.2bn (£28.5bn) for the three months to the end of September, up 12 per cent on the same period last year and ahead of analysts’ forecasts. Operating profit jumped by a quarter over the period to $15.9bn.
Shares in Microsoft were flat in after-hours trading.
The tech firm said it had benefited from increased demand for its cloud services amid a shift in home working.
Microsoft said revenue in its intelligent cloud division jumped 20 per cent to $13bn over the quarter, with 48 per cent growth in its Azure service.
Legacy tech firms such as Microsoft have increasingly shifted their focus to cloud computing amid pressure from younger rivals such as Amazon and Google.
Earlier this month IBM announced plans to spin off its IT infrastructure business as it doubles down on its more profitable cloud unit.
Microsoft also reported 11 per cent growth in its productivity and business processes division as revenue from its Office commercial products and cloud services rose.
The company’s personal computing division, which includes Windows software and Xbox products, grew six per cent.
“The next decade of economic performance for every business will be defined by the speed of their digital transformation,” said Microsoft chief executive Satya Nadella.
“We are innovating across our full modern tech stack to help our customers in every industry improve time to value, increase agility, and reduce costs.”


cityam--2020-10-27--Carlsberg raises full-year outlook as beer sales recover

Carlsberg today lifted its expectations for the full year after posting a better-than-expected beer sales in the third quarter .
The Danish brewer said it now expected operating profit to decline by a mid-single-digit percentage , compared to previous guidance of a high-single-digit percentage .
Read more : Marston ’ s and Carlsberg get green light for £780m brewing JV It came after the company posted a 2.4 per cent rise in total organic volume in the three months to the end of September , boosted by strong sales in Russia and China .
Carlsberg , which is the world @ @ @ @ @ @ @ including Kronenbourg , Tuborg and Somersby , said it had also benefited from cost-cutting measures .
Beer sales have tumbled during the coronavirus pandemic due to widespread closures of bars and restaurants , though the lifting of some restrictions over the summer helped spark a partial rebound .
Carlsberg ’ s performance was also driven by strong performance for craft and specialty brews , as well as its alcohol-free line .
Overall , the brewer reported revenue of 17.3bn Danish krona ( £2.1bn ) over the period , down 6.8 per cent on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was facing “ an increasing level of pressure in the coming quarters ” amid a fresh spike in coronavirus infections .
“ The pandemic remains a concern for us , impacting our people , our customers and our businesses in many of our markets , ” said chief executive Cees ‘ t Hart .
“ Consequently , we ’ re continuing to adapt our organisation , processes and structures to a new market reality , including changed consumer preferences and a temporarily reduced level of on-trade activity .
”

Carlsberg raises full-year outlook as beer sales recover
Carlsberg today lifted its expectations for the full year after posting a better-than-expected beer sales in the third quarter.
The Danish brewer said it now expected operating profit to decline by a mid-single-digit percentage, compared to previous guidance of a high-single-digit percentage.
It came after the company posted a 2.4 per cent rise in total organic volume in the three months to the end of September, boosted by strong sales in Russia and China.
Carlsberg, which is the world’s third-largest brewer and owns brands including Kronenbourg, Tuborg and Somersby, said it had also benefited from cost-cutting measures.
Beer sales have tumbled during the coronavirus pandemic due to widespread closures of bars and restaurants, though the lifting of some restrictions over the summer helped spark a partial rebound.
Carlsberg’s performance was also driven by strong performance for craft and specialty brews, as well as its alcohol-free line.
Overall, the brewer reported revenue of 17.3bn Danish krona (£2.1bn) over the period, down 6.8 per cent on last year.
Carlsberg also warned it was facing “an increasing level of pressure in the coming quarters” amid a fresh spike in coronavirus infections.
“The pandemic remains a concern for us, impacting our people, our customers and our businesses in many of our markets,” said chief executive Cees ‘t Hart.
“Consequently, we’re continuing to adapt our organisation, processes and structures to a new market reality, including changed consumer preferences and a temporarily reduced level of on-trade activity.”


cityam--2020-10-27--Tech bosses to defend key internet law in front of US Senate

The bosses of the world ’ s biggest tech giants will tomorrow launch an impassioned defence of a key law , arguing that it is crucial to maintaining freedom of expression online .
During an appearance in front of the Senate commerce committee , the chief executives of Facebook and Twitter will defend Section 230 , a provision of the 1996 Communications Decency Act .
Read more : US Senate committee votes to subpoena Twitter and Facebook bosses The law protects tech firms from liability for content published on their platforms and allows them to remove posts that are harmful @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the law .
It has come under fierce scrutiny from all sides of the US political spectrum amid concerns about how big tech firms moderate content .
But Twitter boss Jack Dorsey will tomorrow say that undermining the law “ could collapse how we communicate on the internet , leaving only a small number of giant and well-funded technology companies ” , according to written testimonies seen by Reuters .
Facebook chief Mark Zuckerberg warned that social media platforms were likely to become more censorious to avoid legal risks if Section 230 is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ platforms could potentially be held liable for everything people say , ” he said .
It comes as tech giants such as Facebook , Twitter and Google face criticism over their failure to remove harmful content from their sites and their approach to misinformation .
This week a trade body representing major tech companies urged the EU to introduce legal safeguards to limit their liability when removing illegal content .
The European Digital Media Association ( EDIMA ) said a new framework was needed in the upcoming Digital Services Act .
But the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ should balance limiting tech firms ’ liability with protecting free speech .

Tech bosses to defend key internet law in front of US Senate
Amrita Ahuja, CFO at Block, said: “We are thrilled to be making our first UK social impact investment. ART’s efforts to help underserved groups access fair and responsible finance is completely aligned with Block’s mission of economic empowerment.”
The bosses of the world’s biggest tech giants will tomorrow launch an impassioned defence of a key law, arguing that it is crucial to maintaining freedom of expression online.
During an appearance in front of the Senate commerce committee, the chief executives of Facebook and Twitter will defend Section 230, a provision of the 1996 Communications Decency Act.
The law protects tech firms from liability for content published on their platforms and allows them to remove posts that are harmful, even if they do not break the law.
It has come under fierce scrutiny from all sides of the US political spectrum amid concerns about how big tech firms moderate content.
But Twitter boss Jack Dorsey will tomorrow say that undermining the law “could collapse how we communicate on the internet, leaving only a small number of giant and well-funded technology companies”, according to written testimonies seen by Reuters.
Facebook chief Mark Zuckerberg warned that social media platforms were likely to become more censorious to avoid legal risks if Section 230 is repealed.
“Without Section 230, platforms could potentially be held liable for everything people say,” he said.
It comes as tech giants such as Facebook, Twitter and Google face criticism over their failure to remove harmful content from their sites and their approach to misinformation.
This week a trade body representing major tech companies urged the EU to introduce legal safeguards to limit their liability when removing illegal content.
The European Digital Media Association (EDIMA) said a new framework was needed in the upcoming Digital Services Act.
But the lobby group stressed that any legal framework should balance limiting tech firms’ liability with protecting free speech.


cityam--2020-10-27--Majority of London offices cancel Christmas parties in face of new restrictions

Almost all London offices have parked the tinsel and cancelled their Christmas parties this year , according to new research , as the capital faces a bleak festive season under Tier 2 restrictions .
More than 95 per cent of London businesses have cancelled bookings for traditional office parties this Christmas , after the capital ’ s move to “ high ” alert earlier this month saw a ban on indoor social interactions .
Almost 40 per cent of City businesses said they would don their Santa hats for a virtual bonanza this year , according to outsourcing firm Moneypenny @ @ @ @ @ @ @ London firms surveyed said they would tank the turkey altogether and postpone party plans until restrictions were lifted .
Left out in the cold Hospitality firms have warned that cancellations would be a “ further blow ” for businesses already on their knees from months of closure and the 10pm curfew .
Emma McClarkin , chief executive of the British Beer & Pub Association ( BBPA ) , told City A.M : “ December is the busiest time of the year for our sector and work Christmas parties are key to the business @ @ @ @ @ @ @ scrapping their Christmas parties is a further blow to many London pubs who could really do with a boost right now.
” McClarkin urged the government to review restrictions ahead of the Christmas period .
“ Pubs and hospitality in London have already been devastated by the 10pm curfew , rule of six and lack of tourism and office workers .
Clearly people not going to offices is going to damage Christmas trade as well as normal trade it has already devastated , ” she said .
“ The government needs to review @ @ @ @ @ @ @ help restore our trade and public confidence to visit our pubs.
” Almost two-thirds of businesses in the hospitality sector would rather shut for a two-week circuit breaker now if it meant they could open as usual during the Christmas period , according to the latest Hospitality Leaders poll .
UK Hospitality chief executive Kate Nicholls last week slammed the government ’ s refusal to provide extra financial support for the sector as “ catastrophic ” , warning that pubs and restaurants under Tier 2 restrictions have already “ taken a hit due @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with people increasingly working from home ” .
The government yesterday warned restaurants not to abuse an apparent loophole in coronavirus restrictions that allows “ business lunches ” to take place indoors .
While office workers are currently exempt from a ban on social interactions between different households indoors under Tier 2 , it is not clear whether office parties will be exempt from the list of restrictions .
A spokesperson for Number 10 said : “ We can ’ t speculate on what the guidance will be by December.
” But the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ scrap their Christmas plans and bank on Zoom to see their festive celebrations through .
A spokesperson for Lloyds of London told City A.M. the firm “ has decided not to hold a formal end of year party in 2020 ” and is instead exploring “ how we can connect virtually with colleagues over the festive period.
” Read more : More than 50 Tory MPs lash out at local lockdown restrictions HM Revenue & Customs is set to launch a consultation this week over whether to extend Christmas party tax breaks to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , eligible employers can make use of the annual function exemption , which scraps usual tax and national insurance contributions for costs relating to annual social events organised for employees .

Majority of London offices cancel Christmas parties in face of new restrictions
Traders, brokers and bankers have flocked back to their physical offices in the capital to capitalise on boozy parties that sweep across the City during the festive period (Photo by Leon Neal/Getty Images)
Almost all London offices have parked the tinsel and cancelled their Christmas parties this year, according to new research, as the capital faces a bleak festive season under Tier 2 restrictions.
More than 95 per cent of London businesses have cancelled bookings for traditional office parties this Christmas, after the capital’s move to “high” alert earlier this month saw a ban on indoor social interactions.
Almost 40 per cent of City businesses said they would don their Santa hats for a virtual bonanza this year, according to outsourcing firm Moneypenny.
Meanwhile 11 per cent of 1,000 London firms surveyed said they would tank the turkey altogether and postpone party plans until restrictions were lifted.
Left out in the cold
Hospitality firms have warned that cancellations would be a “further blow” for businesses already on their knees from months of closure and the 10pm curfew.
Emma McClarkin, chief executive of the British Beer & Pub Association (BBPA), told City A.M: “December is the busiest time of the year for our sector and work Christmas parties are key to the business models of many pubs.
“Companies scrapping their Christmas parties is a further blow to many London pubs who could really do with a boost right now.”
McClarkin urged the government to review restrictions ahead of the Christmas period.
“Pubs and hospitality in London have already been devastated by the 10pm curfew, rule of six and lack of tourism and office workers. Clearly people not going to offices is going to damage Christmas trade as well as normal trade it has already devastated,” she said.
“The government needs to review restrictions and advice across the board to help restore our trade and public confidence to visit our pubs.”
Almost two-thirds of businesses in the hospitality sector would rather shut for a two-week circuit breaker now if it meant they could open as usual during the Christmas period, according to the latest Hospitality Leaders poll.
UK Hospitality chief executive Kate Nicholls last week slammed the government’s refusal to provide extra financial support for the sector as “catastrophic”, warning that pubs and restaurants under Tier 2 restrictions have already “taken a hit due to the dip in inbound tourism and with people increasingly working from home”.
Government guidance
The government yesterday warned restaurants not to abuse an apparent loophole in coronavirus restrictions that allows “business lunches” to take place indoors.
While office workers are currently exempt from a ban on social interactions between different households indoors under Tier 2, it is not clear whether office parties will be exempt from the list of restrictions.
A spokesperson for Number 10 said: “We can’t speculate on what the guidance will be by December.”
But the indecision has led some City firms to scrap their Christmas plans and bank on Zoom to see their festive celebrations through.
A spokesperson for Lloyd’s of London told City A.M. the firm “has decided not to hold a formal end of year party in 2020” and is instead exploring “how we can connect virtually with colleagues over the festive period.”
HM Revenue & Customs is set to launch a consultation this week over whether to extend Christmas party tax breaks to cover virtual events.
In the UK, eligible employers can make use of the annual function exemption, which scraps usual tax and national insurance contributions for costs relating to annual social events organised for employees.


cityam--2020-10-27--Mercedes-Benz to take 20 per cent stake in embattled British icon Aston Martin

Mercedes-Benz will take a 20 per cent equity stake in beleaguered Aston Martin , the iconic British carmaker announced this afternoon .
In exchange for becoming one of Aston Martin ’ s biggest shareholders , the German firm will give it access to its car design technologies .
Chairman Lawrence Stroll labelled the deal a “ transformational moment ” for the luxury brand .
It also launched a new business plan , under which it will target £2bn in revenue and £500m in Ebitda by 2025 .
Shares in Aston Martin jumped 4.5 per cent prior to the announcement , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Earlier this year the car firm said that it was planning a complete reset “ to enable it to operate as a true luxury company ” .
Since listing in October 2018 the company has struggled , with plunging revenues weighed down further by the coronavirus pandemic .
Before the Open newsletter : Start your day with the City View podcast and key market data Today Aston Martin also announced that revenue had halved in the third quarter , falling to £124m compared to £244m last year .
The first part of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by Stroll led a £536m bid for the luxury carmaker , giving the Canadian billionaire a 25 per cent stake in the firm .
Upon acquiring the stake , one of Stroll ’ s first moves was to replace boss Andy Palmer with Tobias Moers – who used to be chief exec of Mercedes-Benz subsidiary Mercedes-AMG .
Stroll added that the today ’ s announcement was “ truly game-changing ” .
“ We now have the right team , partner , plan and funding in place to transform the Company to be one @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the world.
” Wolf-Dieter Kurz , head of product strategy at Mercedes-Benz , said the firm would give Aston Martin access to new cutting-edge powertrain and software technologies and components , including next generation hybrid and electric drive systems .
Read more : Aston Martin seeks to raise £152m to bolster finances The new shares will be issued to Mercedes-Benz in a number of stages .
Alongside the deal , Aston Martin announced new financing worth over £1.3bn , comprising a £125m share placing and the issue of over £1bn in notes .

Mercedes-Benz to take 20 per cent stake in embattled British icon Aston Martin
The maker of James Bond’s vehicles, Aston Martin, took a hit when the latest 007 movie was delayed
Mercedes-Benz will take a 20 per cent equity stake in beleaguered Aston Martin, the iconic British carmaker announced this afternoon.
In exchange for becoming one of Aston Martin’s biggest shareholders, the German firm will give it access to its car design technologies.
Chairman Lawrence Stroll labelled the deal a “transformational moment” for the luxury brand.
It also launched a new business plan, under which it will target £2bn in revenue and £500m in Ebitda by 2025.
Shares in Aston Martin jumped 4.5 per cent prior to the announcement, which came as markets closed this afternoon.
Earlier this year the car firm said that it was planning a complete reset “to enable it to operate as a true luxury company”.
Since listing in October 2018 the company has struggled, with plunging revenues weighed down further by the coronavirus pandemic.
Before the Open newsletter: Start your day with the City View podcast and key market data
Today Aston Martin also announced that revenue had halved in the third quarter, falling to £124m compared to £244m last year.
The first part of the reset came when a consortium backed by Stroll led a £536m bid for the luxury carmaker, giving the Canadian billionaire a 25 per cent stake in the firm.
‘Game-changing’
Upon acquiring the stake, one of Stroll’s first moves was to replace boss Andy Palmer with Tobias Moers – who used to be chief exec of Mercedes-Benz subsidiary Mercedes-AMG.
Stroll added that the today’s announcement was “truly game-changing”.
“We now have the right team, partner, plan and funding in place to transform the Company to be one of the greatest luxury car brands in the world.”
Wolf-Dieter Kurz, head of product strategy at Mercedes-Benz, said the firm would give Aston Martin access to new cutting-edge powertrain and software technologies and components, including next generation hybrid and electric drive systems.
The new shares will be issued to Mercedes-Benz in a number of stages.
Alongside the deal, Aston Martin announced new financing worth over £1.3bn, comprising a £125m share placing and the issue of over £1bn in notes.


cityam--2020-10-28--Soho icon Admiral Duncan amongst other pubs to stay closed until restrictions lift

Iconic Soho pub The Admiral Duncan is set to remain closed until lockdown restrictions lift , it was confirmed today .
The Retro Bar off the Strand and Soho ’ s Kings Arms will also remain closed .
Stonegate , the pub company which owns the property , said in a statement that the “ myriad of restrictions placed on pubs and bars has meant it is not possible to reopen these businesses… and they will remain closed until restrictions are eased.
” Read more : Westminster Council reverses decision to charge for outdoor seating City A.M. understands that Stonegate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ again .
The Admiral Duncan on Old Compton Street has been a hub of London ’ s LGBTQ+ community for many years and was the subject of a homophobic nailbomb attack in 1999 .
The attack killed three and injured more than 70 .
Hospitality businesses have been hit especially hard by lockdown restrictions , including the 10pm curfew .
A Stonegate spokesperson said : “ Like many businesses across the capital the introduction of the 10pm curfew and subsequent further local tiered restrictions have had a significant impact on thousands of businesses @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in town and city centres and undermining consumer confidence .
“ The combination of these factors and subsequent impact on sales and volumes , means that we are having to rebase our business accordingly , whilst the restrictions remain .
”

Soho icon Admiral Duncan amongst other pubs to stay closed until restrictions lift
The pub’s owner blamed “a myriad of restrictions” for the closure (Photo by Leon Neal/Getty Images)
Iconic Soho pub The Admiral Duncan is set to remain closed until lockdown restrictions lift, it was confirmed today.
The Retro Bar off the Strand and Soho’s Kings Arms will also remain closed.
Stonegate, the pub company which owns the property, said in a statement that the “myriad of restrictions placed on pubs and bars has meant it is not possible to reopen these businesses… and they will remain closed until restrictions are eased.”
Read more: Westminster Council reverses decision to charge for outdoor seating
City A.M. understands that Stonegate remain hopeful that the venues will open again.
The Admiral Duncan on Old Compton Street has been a hub of London’s LGBTQ+ community for many years and was the subject of a homophobic nailbomb attack in 1999.
The attack killed three and injured more than 70.
Hospitality businesses have been hit especially hard by lockdown restrictions, including the 10pm curfew.
The news about the Admiral Duncan and Retro is horrendous. My heart bleeds for the staff and all of us who have been proud to be ourselves in those venues. — Elijah Murlor (@ElijahMurlor) October 28, 2020
A Stonegate spokesperson said: “Like many businesses across the capital the introduction of the 10pm curfew and subsequent further local tiered restrictions have had a significant impact on thousands of businesses, as well as further reducing footfall in town and city centres and undermining consumer confidence.
“The combination of these factors and subsequent impact on sales and volumes, means that we are having to rebase our business accordingly, whilst the restrictions remain.”


cityam--2020-10-28--Who’s afraid of Jerome Powell?

Who’s afraid of Jerome Powell?

I see charts of central bank balance sheets everywhere .
Maybe it ’ s because I am so adamant that quantitative easing ( QE ) isn ’ t going to create inflation that I notice them so much .
But then again , there is a reason these charts pop up time and again .
After all , the US Federal Reserve has increased its balance sheet by $ 2.8 trillion , or 13.6 % of US GDP , between January and July 2020 .
The Bank of England ( BOE ) has expanded its balance sheet by $ 306 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and the European Central Bank ( ECB ) by $ 2.3 trillion , or 19.9 % of eurozone GDP , over the same time period .
All this money has to go somewhere and when it arrives in the economy , it will not only create growth , it will also create inflation .
But unlike in 2009 and 2010 , when we were in truly uncharted waters , we now know how QE works .
We have had more than a decade to study its effects on economic growth and inflation @ @ @ @ @ @ @ all the studies done on the impact of QE on growth and inflation over the years .
In the United States , they found that QE to the tune of 1 % of US GDP increases the price level by 0.21 % .
In the United Kingdom , the price level rises by 0.04 % , and in the eurozone by 0.11 % .
If we apply these findings to the balance sheet expansion of central banks thus far in 2020 , we come to an expected increase in the price level of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 0.4 % in the United Kingdom , and 2.2 % in the eurozone .
Keep in mind that this is an increase in the price level , not an increase in inflation .
What these numbers mean is that if the total effect of QE were to be felt over one year , inflation rates in the United States would go up by 2.9 percentage points in that year and then go back to the previous level , assuming there is no additional QE .
If the effect of QE is spread out @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rates in Year 1 and Year 2 would be 1.45 percentage points higher and then fall back to pre-QE levels thereafter , and so on .
So what ’ s the takeaway from all of this ?
The overall impact of the balance sheet expansion by central banks in 2020 will be very small at best .
For inflation to really get out of hand , we need much more balance sheet expansion than we had in the financial crisis and during the COVID-19 pandemic .
And not just once or twice , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
So there ’ s no need to be afraid of central bank balance sheets or those scary charts .
Jerome Powell , Andrew Bailey , and Christine Lagarde shouldn ’ t keep us up at night .
They are harmless .
If you liked this post , don ’ t forget to subscribe to the Enterprising Investor .
By Joachim Klement , CFA , a trustee of the CFA Institute Research Foundation All posts are the opinion of the author .
As such , they should not be construed as investment advice @ @ @ @ @ @ @ reflect the views of CFA Institute or the author ’ s employer .
Image courtesy of the US Federal Reserve

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Who’s afraid of Jerome Powell?
I see charts of central bank balance sheets everywhere.
Maybe it’s because I am so adamant that quantitative easing (QE) isn’t going to create inflation that I notice them so much.
But then again, there is a reason these charts pop up time and again. After all, the US Federal Reserve has increased its balance sheet by $2.8 trillion, or 13.6% of US GDP, between January and July 2020. The Bank of England (BOE) has expanded its balance sheet by $306 billion or 10.7% of UK GDP, and the European Central Bank (ECB) by $2.3 trillion, or 19.9% of eurozone GDP, over the same time period.
All this money has to go somewhere and when it arrives in the economy, it will not only create growth, it will also create inflation.
Exorcising the Ghosts of 2009
But unlike in 2009 and 2010, when we were in truly uncharted waters, we now know how QE works. We have had more than a decade to study its effects on economic growth and inflation.
A group of researchers recently examined all the studies done on the impact of QE on growth and inflation over the years. In the United States, they found that QE to the tune of 1% of US GDP increases the price level by 0.21%. In the United Kingdom, the price level rises by 0.04%, and in the eurozone by 0.11%.
If we apply these findings to the balance sheet expansion of central banks thus far in 2020, we come to an expected increase in the price level of 2.9% in the United States, 0.4% in the United Kingdom, and 2.2% in the eurozone.
Central Bank Balance Sheet Expansion 2020: Cumulative Impact on Price Levels
Keep in mind that this is an increase in the price level, not an increase in inflation. What these numbers mean is that if the total effect of QE were to be felt over one year, inflation rates in the United States would go up by 2.9 percentage points in that year and then go back to the previous level, assuming there is no additional QE.
If the effect of QE is spread out equally over two years, then inflation rates in Year 1 and Year 2 would be 1.45 percentage points higher and then fall back to pre-QE levels thereafter, and so on.
So what’s the takeaway from all of this?
The overall impact of the balance sheet expansion by central banks in 2020 will be very small at best. For inflation to really get out of hand, we need much more balance sheet expansion than we had in the financial crisis and during the COVID-19 pandemic. And not just once or twice, but every year for the foreseeable future.
So there’s no need to be afraid of central bank balance sheets or those scary charts. Jerome Powell, Andrew Bailey, and Christine Lagarde shouldn’t keep us up at night. They are harmless.
If you liked this post, don’t forget to subscribe to the Enterprising Investor.
By Joachim Klement, CFA, a trustee of the CFA Institute Research Foundation
All posts are the opinion of the author. As such, they should not be construed as investment advice, nor do the opinions expressed necessarily reflect the views of CFA Institute or the author’s employer.
Image courtesy of the US Federal Reserve


cityam--2020-10-28--Breaking: Two-thirds of all UK businesses at risk of insolvency

Two-thirds of all businesses across the UK currently trading have a “ low to severe risk of insolvency ” , according to the Office for National Statistics ( ONS ) The latest Business Impact of Coronavirus Survey ( BICS ) from the ONS found that 64 per cent of businesses across all industries are at risk of insolvency , with 43 per cent of companies running on less than six months ’ cash reserves .
The figure comes on top of the 14 per cent of all UK businesses that have already paused trading under local lockdown restrictions .
Read @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that British businesses are not ready for Brexit Businesses in the hospitality industry are at the highest risk of entering administration , with 17 per cent of all accommodation and food companies currently trading at “ severe risk ” of insolvency , according to the ONS .
Seven per cent of all pubs , restaurants and hotels in the UK have zero cash reserves , latest data showed .
It comes after more than two-thirds of businesses in the hospitality sector reported a slump in usual turnover for this time of year in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ when the survey was conducted .
Key figures in the hospitality sector have called for further financial support , warning that the 10pm curfew , social distancing measures and tier restrictions will decimate the industry and cause wide-scale job losses .
Nine per cent of the entire UK workforce , and more than a quarter of the nation ’ s hospitality industry , were still on partial or full furlough at the beginning of the month , according to the ONS .
The Trade Union Congress ( TUC ) , which represents more @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has warned the country will see a “ tsunami ” of job losses when the furlough scheme winds down on 31 October — in just three days ’ time .
Latest figures from the ONS showed a slight increase in the number of UK businesses resuming trading in October , with 86 per cent of businesses in the UK currently operating — compared to just 66 per cent in June .
However , the latest figures are likely to be much lower , after large swathes of the North of England , Scotland @ @ @ @ @ @ @ form of local lockdown since the ONS survey was compiled .
Read more : Retail sales fall sharply as new restrictions dampen economic recovery Businesses in the arts and entertainment industry have taken the biggest hit from the pandemic , with 30 per cent of companies in the sector currently shuttered .
But the pandemic continues to weigh on those businesses that have reopened , with almost half of companies that have resumed trading experiencing a decrease in turnover compared to normal business at this time of year .
This is a breaking @ @ @ @ @ @

Two-thirds of all UK businesses at risk of insolvency
Almost half of all UK companies are curently running on less than six months’ cash reserves
Two-thirds of all businesses across the UK currently trading have a “low to severe risk of insolvency”, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
The latest Business Impact of Coronavirus Survey (BICS) from the ONS found that 64 per cent of businesses across all industries are at risk of insolvency, with 43 per cent of companies running on less than six months’ cash reserves.
The figure comes on top of the 14 per cent of all UK businesses that have already paused trading under local lockdown restrictions.
Businesses in the hospitality industry are at the highest risk of entering administration, with 17 per cent of all accommodation and food companies currently trading at “severe risk” of insolvency, according to the ONS.
Seven per cent of all pubs, restaurants and hotels in the UK have zero cash reserves, latest data showed.
A spokesperson for trade body UK Hospitality told City A.M: “There can be no doubt of the devastating impact that the government’s restrictions are having on hospitality and pub businesses across the UK.
“Without urgent sector-specific support for our industry, massive business failure is imminent and hundreds of thousands of jobs will be lost around Christmas from a sector that was in growth at the beginning of this year, as well as in the supply chain that supports them.”
It comes after more than two-thirds of businesses in the hospitality sector reported a slump in usual turnover for this time of year in the three weeks to 4 October, when the survey was conducted.
Key figures in the hospitality sector have called for further financial support, warning that the 10pm curfew, social distancing measures and tier restrictions will decimate the industry and cause wide-scale job losses.
Nine per cent of the entire UK workforce, and more than a quarter of the nation’s hospitality industry were still on partial or full furlough at the beginning of the month, according to the ONS.
The Trade Union Congress (TUC), which represents more than 5.5m workers across the UK, has warned the country will see a “tsunami” of job losses when the furlough scheme winds down on 31 October — in just three days’ time.
Almost a third of UK businesses are currently not trading
Figures up to the 4 October from the ONS showed a slight increase in the number of UK businesses resuming trading in October, with 86 per cent of businesses in the UK currently operating — compared to just 66 per cent in June.
However, the latest figures are likely to be much lower, after large swathes of the North of England, Scotland and the whole of Wales entered some form of local lockdown since the ONS survey was compiled.
Businesses in the arts and entertainment industry have taken the biggest hit from the pandemic, with 30 per cent of companies in the sector currently shuttered.
But the pandemic continues to weigh on those businesses that have reopened, with almost half of companies that have resumed trading experiencing a decrease in turnover compared to normal business at this time of year.
A government spokesperson told City A.M: “We understand the pressures businesses are currently under and have put in place one of the most comprehensive packages of business support in the world, worth more £200bn.
“We have also given businesses much-needed breathing space by extending measures put in place to protect them from insolvency.”
The spokesperson added: “Our plan for jobs will support businesses in the months ahead, and businesses required to close due to local lockdowns can claim £3,000 a month. On top of this firms can continue to access billions of loans and guarantees, cuts to VAT and business rate relief.”


cityam--2020-10-28--John Lewis to convert almost half of Oxford Street store into offices

John Lewis has been given the green light to convert almost half of its flagship Oxford Street department store into office space amid turmoil for the UK ’ s retail sector .
Westminster City Council last night granted the high street store conditional planning permission to transform three to eight floors into dual-use space .
Read more : John Lewis unveils five-year plan to return to profit The local authority voted unanimously to approve the application , saying “ exceptional circumstances exist to justify the loss of retail floorspace in the instance ” .
Under the proposals there will be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and a minimum of 34,919sqm of retail space .
John Lewis is also planning to convert some of its property into housing under proposals set out by new boss Sharon White .
The partnership has identified 20 sites above or next door to a current Waitrose store that could be transformed into housing .
It is already seeking planning permission on two properties in Greater London , White confirmed this month as she unveiled a two-year plan to return to profit .
The partnership is targeting profit of £400m within five years .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ bonus as it crashes to £635m loss Last month it posted a pre-tax loss of £635m loss in the first six months of 2020 and scrapped its employee bonus for the first time since 1948 .
In July the retailer announced it would not reopen eight branches – including its Birmingham Bullring department store – after the UK coronavirus lockdown , putting around 1,300 jobs at risk .

John Lewis to convert almost half of Oxford Street store into offices
John Lewis could turn three to eight floors of its Oxford Street store into office space (Photo credit: Getty)
John Lewis has been given the green light to convert almost half of its flagship Oxford Street department store into office space amid turmoil for the UK’s retail sector.
Westminster City Council last night granted the high street store conditional planning permission to transform three to eight floors into dual-use space.
The local authority voted unanimously to approve the application, saying “exceptional circumstances exist to justify the loss of retail floorspace in the instance”.
Under the proposals there will be a maximum of 28,135sqm of office space and a minimum of 34,919sqm of retail space.
John Lewis is also planning to convert some of its property into housing under proposals set out by new boss Sharon White.
The partnership has identified 20 sites above or next door to a current Waitrose store that could be transformed into housing.
It is already seeking planning permission on two properties in Greater London, White confirmed this month as she unveiled a two-year plan to return to profit.
The partnership is targeting profit of £400m within five years.
Last month it posted a pre-tax loss of £635m loss in the first six months of 2020 and scrapped its employee bonus for the first time since 1948.
In July the retailer announced it would not reopen eight branches – including its Birmingham Bullring department store – after the UK coronavirus lockdown, putting around 1,300 jobs at risk.


cityam--2020-10-28--FTSE 100 falls to lowest since April as coronavirus rocks markets

The FTSE 100 tumbled to its lowest level since April as surging coronavirus cases and a lack of US stimulus cast a pall over markets .
London ’ s blue-chip index dropped 1.6 per cent in early trading , its third fall in a row , to just 5,635 points .
European stocks also slid to their lowest level in months .
Read more : How close are we to having an approved coronavirus vaccine ?
Global sentiment has suffered in recent weeks as coronavirus cases have soared again .
And a lack of progress on US stimulus – which @ @ @ @ @ @ @ added to worries .
“ Another day , another grim start for European stocks , ” said Michael Brown , senior market analyst at Caxton FX .
“ It ’ s ugly out there.
” German chancellor Angela Merkel is pushing for new curbs on the hospitality and leisure sectors to try to limit the spread of Covid , according to a document seen by Bloomberg .
Read more : Majority of London offices cancel Christmas parties in face of new restrictions Meanwhile , hopes of a US stimulus bill before the 3 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ President Donald Trump told reporters yesterday : “ After the election we ’ ll get the best stimulus package you ’ ve ever seen.
” In Europe , Germany ’ s Dax index slumped 3.3 per cent .
Deutsche Bank dropped despite bond trading helped it to its highest profit in six quarters .
France ’ s CAC 40 was down 2.9 per cent and the Europe-wide Stoxx 600 shed two per cent .
Asian stocks moved broadly lower overnight .
In the US , futures prices pointed to a lower open for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ led the FTSE 100 lower , with fellow internationally focused stocks IAG and Intercontinental Hotels also falling sharply .
Property-focused firms also suffered .
British Land shed more than five per cent and Land Securities and housebuilder Taylor Wimpey were also significantly lower .
“ After months of delusion about the avoidance of new national lockdowns , reality is setting in , ” said Jasper Lawler of London Capital Group .
Oil prices slipped as investors bet that new coronavirus restrictions would hit demand .
The Brent crude benchmark price fell 2.1 per @ @ @ @ @ @ @ That hit FTSE 100 oil giants BP and Shell as well as France ’ s Total dropped .
US oil majors were hit in pre-market trading .
Fiona Cincotta , market analyst at City Index , said that “ elevated US crude inventories coupled with soaring coronavirus infections ” were driving the sell-off .
Read more : Oil prices fall on fears of production boost amid surge in Covid-19 cases The dollar jumped 0.5 per cent against a basket of other currencies as investors sought safety .
Yields on ultra-safe 10-year US government @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 0.018 percentage points ) to 0.758 per cent .
They move inversely to prices .

US stocks tumble and oil drops after disastrous FTSE 100 day
Global markets and the FTSE 100 fell sharply as rising coronavirus cases and new economic restrictions worried investors
The FTSE 100 plunged to its lowest level since April and US and European stocks tumbled as surging coronavirus cases and a lack of US stimulus sent shockwaves through markets.
London’s blue-chip index dropped three per cent in afternoon trading, its third fall in as many days, to just 5,556 points.
Read more: How close are we to having an approved coronavirus vaccine?
European stocks slumped to a five-month low and US markets fell sharply. The lethal cocktail of rising new Covid restrictions and fading stimulus hopes sent investors towards the safety of the dollar and government bonds.
“It is getting very ugly out there,” said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda. “Covid-19 anxiety is back.”
Joshua Mahony, market analyst at IG, said a “second bout of nationwide lockdowns” had raised the chances of a “double-dip recession”.
Broad decline drags down FTSE 100
In Europe, Germany’s Dax index slumped four per cent as the global sell-off accelerated in the afternoon.
German chancellor Angela Merkel is pushing for new curbs on the hospitality and leisure sectors to try to limit the spread of Covid.
Read more: How close are we to having an approved coronavirus vaccine?
France’s CAC 40 was down 3.7 per cent and the Europe-wide Stoxx 600 shed 3.1 per cent.
Rolls Royce led the FTSE 100 lower, while industrial and mining stocks slid on expectations of lower demand. Property-focused firms also suffered.
“A national lockdown, as we have seen in Q2, ravages an economy,” said Fiona Cincotta, market analyst at City Index.
“Whilst Germany and France are considering a lighter version than the lockdown seen in March, tighter lockdown restrictions have already resulted in business activity in the Eurozone contracting.”
Read more: Octopus Ventures ‘extremely optimistic’ about investment landscape
Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at Think Markets, said: “Investors are forced to reassess their optimistic projections on growth and are thus reducing their risk exposures accordingly.”
He said short-selling had “undoubtedly” added to the pressure. “Short-term focused traders [have moved] to take advantage of the volatility.”
US stocks tumble and oil drops
US stocks slid for the third day running as pressure hit markets from multiple directions. The S&P 500 dropped 2.9 per cent and the Dow Jones shed three per cent. The Nasdaq was 3.1 per cent lower.
The US is dealing with a surge in coronavirus cases, just like Europe. But it is also facing a messy presidential election, and a much hoped-for stimulus bill has not materialised.
Read more: Soho icon Admiral Duncan amongst other pubs to stay closed until restrictions lift
Oanda analyst Moya said: “Right now virus concerns, lack of stimulus, and election outcome uncertainty have forced investors to scale down their reopening bets.”
Oil prices slipped as investors bet that new coronavirus restrictions would hit demand. The Brent crude benchmark price fell 3.8 per cent to $39.20 per barrel.
That hit FTSE 100 oil giants BP and Shell as well as France’s Total dropped. US oil majors were hit in pre-market trading.
“Waning US gasoline dependencies at the pump… are pushing oil ever so closer to a Covid-19-induced tipping point,” said Stephen Innes, chief global market strategist at Axi.
“The return of the ‘sudden stop’ economic nightmare will play a considerable role in the market’s mindscapes over the next few weeks.”
Read more: Oil prices fall on fears of production boost amid surge in Covid-19 cases
The dollar jumped 0.6 per cent against a basket of other currencies as investors sought safety.
Its rise hit the pound, which fell 0.5 per cent to $1.297. Sterling’s fall helped support the FTSE 100 somewhat compared to other European markets, as it makes companies’ overseas earnings worth more in relative terms.


cityam--2020-10-28--DeFi Hacks: A Cybersecurity Perspective

DeFi Hacks: A Cybersecurity Perspective

The decentralized finance market ( DeFi ) has been one of the most explosive trends in the crypto industry since the ICO boom of 2017 .
Crypto-assets locked away in DeFi protocols over 2020 have increased by a staggering 1,740 % , from $ 676 million to a peak of $ 12.44 billion – according to figures from Defipulse .
This dramatic rise in value held on the market coupled with the fact that all DeFi platforms are largely run autonomously has made it a vulnerable , lucrative target for malicious hackers .
The research we ’ ve conducted at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 11 high-profile security breaches including the recent Harvest Finance ( FARM ) hack , since January 1st .
The collective amount stolen in US dollars at the time of each cyberattack , excluding recovered funds , now exceeds $ 78.3 million .
Why are they happening ?
While no two DeFi protocol hacks are ever completely the same , they typically occur from one of three recurring issues .
Business logic errors , coding mistakes , and problems arising from management override controls .
Let ’ s take a look at the Harvest @ @ @ @ @ @ @ most recent example .
The ‘ hack ’ involved a user taking advantage of an unchecked arbitrage opportunity on the platform using a $ 50 million flash loan .
$ 10m USDT was swapped to USDC via a DeFi exchange liquidity pool named Curve to decrease the value of USDT , and then the following $ 40m USDT was exchanged for fUSDT at Harvest Finance .
The $ 10m USDC was then swapped back into USDT on Curve to increase the price of USDT , which in turn caused the USDT rate against @ @ @ @ @ @ @ then simply swapped fUSDT back into USDT and netted an average return of $ 500,000 .
After repeating this cycle several times , they were able to generate $ 24 million before their activities were noticed .
This is a classic example of what we mean by a business logic error , where an exploitable opportunity is created in a platform ’ s infrastructure mostly because developers lack the necessary financial knowledge to foresee these types of loopholes .
This case is very similar to the two attacks that happened on the bZx @ @ @ @ @ @ @ February .
Again , this was the result of an unchecked arbitrage opportunity that allowed the hacker ( s ) to make off with around $ 1 million in ETH – and there was absolutely nothing anyone could do about it .
Coding errors also play a major role in creating additional openings for savvy hackers to exploit and drain liquidity pools .
These often arise because of a project ’ s desire to enter the market as quickly as possible to capitalize on the growing demand without passing through a proper security @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of this was the Lendf.me hack on April 20 , whereby a flaw in the ERC-777 token standard allowed a reentrancy attack .
Over $ 25 million was stolen as a result of this coding error , however , interestingly all funds were eventually returned after the hacker accidentally leaked their own IP address .
Lucky escape for the DeFi protocol !
The bZx exchange also fell victim to this type of security breach on September 14 even though they had previously enlisted the services of external auditors .
On this particular occasion @ @ @ @ @ @ @ previous two attacks , amassing $ 8.1 million from a fatal fault in a smart contract that was missed by independent security firms , Peckshield and Certik .
The final recurring issue which contributes to a number of DeFi security breaches is problems caused by management override controls .
What we mean by this is when founders take advantage of their position as an initial liquidity provider and dump an enormous amount of tokens on the community .
The Sushiswap saga is perhaps the best example of this type of DeFi vulnerability .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ the protocol , sparked huge controversy when they decided to dump his/her founder ’ s tokens on the market in true Charlie Lee-style .
The move caused the price of SUSHI to crash 75 % in minutes and was immediately labeled by the DeFi community as an exit scam .
Not long after , the head chef decided to return the $ 14 million worth of ETH they had made from the sell-off back to the project ’ s treasury .
How to prevent these hacks Business logic errors can be easily fixed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a testnet or beta phase before launching , and ensuring that the arbitrage check function has a lower tolerance value than 2 % .
At Hacken , we also advise that deposit functions should also not be accessible to 3rd party smart contracts , or at least certain value limits should be in place if they are .
As we ’ ve seen from the most recent bZx hack , getting audited from third-party contractors does not always guarantee that a protocol will be completely free from coding errors , however , it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ community that you ’ re taking every step possible to mitigate those risks .
Security audits from respected cybersecurity firms should be routinely carried out to reduce the threat of direct protocol vulnerabilities .
Finally , with regards to mismanagement from DeFi founders , the best way for traders to insulate themselves from falling victim to exit scams and fraud is to perform rigorous due diligence prior to parting with any crypto .
Checking a project ’ s whitepaper , team , community activity , exchange listings , number of security audits , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ you a much clearer idea of whether or not to make an investment .
With the current rapid rate of new projects entering the space and the exponentially increasing amount of assets being locked away in decentralized finance protocols , our cybersecurity team at Hacken anticipates 2021 will see a noticeable uptick in the 3 aforementioned types of DeFi hacks , and overall , estimate it will take 2-5 years before we see stable and secure DeFi protocols .
Dyma Budorin , CEO of Hacken Group , Dyma was a top-level executive in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ As an ACCA , his other achievements include an eight-year career in Deloitte in accounting , audit and project management .

DeFi Hacks: A Cybersecurity Perspective
The decentralized finance market (DeFi) has been one of the most explosive trends in the crypto industry since the ICO boom of 2017. Crypto-assets locked away in DeFi protocols over 2020 have increased by a staggering 1,740%, from $676 million to a peak of $12.44 billion – according to figures from Defipulse.
This dramatic rise in value held on the market coupled with the fact that all DeFi platforms are largely run autonomously has made it a vulnerable, lucrative target for malicious hackers.
The research we’ve conducted at Hacken shows there have been at least 11 high-profile security breaches including the recent Harvest Finance (FARM) hack, since January 1st. The collective amount stolen in US dollars at the time of each cyberattack, excluding recovered funds, now exceeds $78.3 million.
Why are they happening?
While no two DeFi protocol hacks are ever completely the same, they typically occur from one of three recurring issues. Business logic errors, coding mistakes, and problems arising from management override controls. Let’s take a look at the Harvest Finance (FARM) exploit as the most recent example. The ‘hack’ involved a user taking advantage of an unchecked arbitrage opportunity on the platform using a $50 million flash loan. $10m USDT was swapped to USDC via a DeFi exchange liquidity pool named Curve to decrease the value of USDT, and then the following $40m USDT was exchanged for fUSDT at Harvest Finance. The $10m USDC was then swapped back into USDT on Curve to increase the price of USDT, which in turn caused the USDT rate against fUSDT to increase also. The user then simply swapped fUSDT back into USDT and netted an average return of $500,000. After repeating this cycle several times, they were able to generate $24 million before their activities were noticed.
This is a classic example of what we mean by a business logic error, where an exploitable opportunity is created in a platform’s infrastructure mostly because developers lack the necessary financial knowledge to foresee these types of loopholes.
This case is very similar to the two attacks that happened on the bZx exchange within the same week back in February. Again, this was the result of an unchecked arbitrage opportunity that allowed the hacker(s) to make off with around $1 million in ETH – and there was absolutely nothing anyone could do about it. Coding errors also play a major role in creating additional openings for savvy hackers to exploit and drain liquidity pools. These often arise because of a project’s desire to enter the market as quickly as possible to capitalize on the growing demand without passing through a proper security auditing process first. A good illustration of this was the Lendf.me hack on April 20, whereby a flaw in the ERC-777 token standard allowed a reentrancy attack. Over $25 million was stolen as a result of this coding error, however, interestingly all funds were eventually returned after the hacker accidentally leaked their own IP address. Lucky escape for the DeFi protocol! The bZx exchange also fell victim to this type of security breach on September 14 even though they had previously enlisted the services of external auditors. On this particular occasion, hackers made substantially more than the previous two attacks, amassing $8.1 million from a fatal fault in a smart contract that was missed by independent security firms, Peckshield and Certik.
The final recurring issue which contributes to a number of DeFi security breaches is problems caused by management override controls. What we mean by this is when founders take advantage of their position as an initial liquidity provider and dump an enormous amount of tokens on the community. The Sushiswap saga is perhaps the best example of this type of DeFi vulnerability. Chef Nomi, the anonymous creator of the protocol, sparked huge controversy when they decided to dump his/her founder’s tokens on the market in true Charlie Lee-style. The move caused the price of SUSHI to crash 75% in minutes and was immediately labeled by the DeFi community as an exit scam. Not long after, the head chef decided to return the $14 million worth of ETH they had made from the sell-off back to the project’s treasury.
How to prevent these hacks
Business logic errors can be easily fixed by trialing the DeFi protocol properly in a testnet or beta phase before launching, and ensuring that the arbitrage check function has a lower tolerance value than 2%. At Hacken, we also advise that deposit functions should also not be accessible to 3rd party smart contracts, or at least certain value limits should be in place if they are.
As we’ve seen from the most recent bZx hack, getting audited from third-party contractors does not always guarantee that a protocol will be completely free from coding errors, however, it does go some way towards showing the community that you’re taking every step possible to mitigate those risks. Security audits from respected cybersecurity firms should be routinely carried out to reduce the threat of direct protocol vulnerabilities.
Finally, with regards to mismanagement from DeFi founders, the best way for traders to insulate themselves from falling victim to exit scams and fraud is to perform rigorous due diligence prior to parting with any crypto. Checking a project’s whitepaper, team, community activity, exchange listings, number of security audits, and backing from institutional investors will give you a much clearer idea of whether or not to make an investment.
The future of DeFi hacks
With the current rapid rate of new projects entering the space and the exponentially increasing amount of assets being locked away in decentralized finance protocols, our cybersecurity team at Hacken anticipates 2021 will see a noticeable uptick in the 3 aforementioned types of DeFi hacks, and overall, estimate it will take 2-5 years before we see stable and secure DeFi protocols.
Dyma Budorin, CEO of Hacken Group, Dyma was a top-level executive in Ukraine’s military defense industry. As an ACCA, his other achievements include an eight-year career in Deloitte in accounting, audit and project management.


cityam--2020-10-28--DEBATE: Is Sadiq Khan right to refuse to expand London’s congestion charge zone?

Is Sadiq Khan right to refuse to expand London ’ s congestion charge zone ?
When Boris Johnson was mayor of London he promised Londoners : “ I am not going to be having any more congestion charges ” .
Yet now , his government is trying to force exactly that on our city .
Transport for London ’ s financial health was getting better by the day before the pandemic — with Sadiq Khan reducing its deficit by 70 per cent .
Now it needs support because of the collapse in passenger numbers and fare revenue due to Covid-19 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to private rail companies with no strings attached , it seems ministers will only offer TfL financial support on the condition that the congestion charge zone is extended , fares and council tax are hiked , and free travel for under-18s and over-60s is scrapped .
This is unacceptable .
Expanding the congestion charge to the North and South Circular roads would affect four million Londoners .
It would be crippling for families across London who are already struggling .
While so many are fighting for their livelihoods during this pandemic , an @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a death knell for jobs and businesses .
Khan is right to refuse the government ’ s attempts to punish Londoners .
, director of competition policy at the International Center for Law & Economics , says If you underprice a scarce resource , you ’ ll get shortages .
That was true for bread under communism , gasoline under Nixon , and it is true for London ’ s congested roads today .
Average road speeds in central London are just 7.4 miles per hour .
In Singapore , where they charge @ @ @ @ @ @ @ over 20mph .
London ’ s congestion charge has helped .
It cut congestion by 30 per cent and sped up traffic by 21 per cent .
But it is far too low in many places , and should apply to much more of the city .
Expansion to the North and South Circular roads would help motorists by reducing congestion and speeding up travel times .
Buses would become faster and more reliable too .
That , plus increased demand from ex-motorists unwilling to pay the new charge , would allow for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the city .
Road socialism has failed London .
As usual , the solution is the price system .

DEBATE: Is Sadiq Khan right to refuse to expand London’s congestion charge zone?
The proposal is to expand the congestion charge to the North and South Circular roads
Is Sadiq Khan right to refuse to expand London’s congestion charge zone?
JOIN THE DEBATE
Wes Streeting , Labour MP for Ilford North, says YES
When Boris Johnson was mayor of London he promised Londoners: “I am not going to be having any more congestion charges”. Yet now, his government is trying to force exactly that on our city.
Transport for London’s financial health was getting better by the day before the pandemic — with Sadiq Khan reducing its deficit by 70 per cent. Now it needs support because of the collapse in passenger numbers and fare revenue due to Covid-19.
But despite the government giving billions to private rail companies with no strings attached, it seems ministers will only offer TfL financial support on the condition that the congestion charge zone is extended, fares and council tax are hiked, and free travel for under-18s and over-60s is scrapped. This is unacceptable.
Expanding the congestion charge to the North and South Circular roads would affect four million Londoners. It would be crippling for families across London who are already struggling. While so many are fighting for their livelihoods during this pandemic, an expansion to the congestion charge could be a death knell for jobs and businesses.
Khan is right to refuse the government’s attempts to punish Londoners.
Sam Bowman , director of competition policy at the International Center for Law & Economics, says NO
If you underprice a scarce resource, you’ll get shortages. That was true for bread under communism, gasoline under Nixon, and it is true for London’s congested roads today.
Average road speeds in central London are just 7.4 miles per hour. In Singapore, where they charge for road use, average speeds are over 20mph.
London’s congestion charge has helped. It cut congestion by 30 per cent and sped up traffic by 21 per cent. But it is far too low in many places, and should apply to much more of the city.
Expansion to the North and South Circular roads would help motorists by reducing congestion and speeding up travel times. Buses would become faster and more reliable too. That, plus increased demand from ex-motorists unwilling to pay the new charge, would allow for more extensive and regular bus services across the city.
Road socialism has failed London. As usual, the solution is the price system.
JOIN THE DEBATE
Main image credit: Getty


cityam--2020-10-28--BT taps Ericsson to provide London 5G networks

BT has chosen Swedish telecoms firm Ericsson to provide 5G radio equipment in London , Edinburgh , Belfast , Cardiff and other major UK cities .
The deal means that when rollout is completed , Ericsson will manage around 50 per cent of BT ’ s 5G traffic .
Read more : BT taps Nokia to replace Huawei in 5G networks It comes just months after the government said it would ban Chinese firm Huawei from its 5G networks .
Earlier this year , BT selected Ericsson to provide its cloud-computing 5G core , meaning the Swedish firm is now @ @ @ @ @ @ @ new tech .
In addition , it will also help BT modernise its 2G and 4G network .
Börje Ekholm , President and CEO , Ericsson , said : “ Having already been selected to partner in 5G Core , we are pleased to strengthen the relationship further with this deal that will deliver high performance and secure 5G to their customers across the UK ’ s major cities .
Before the Open newsletter : Start your day with the City View podcast and key market data “ By deploying 5G in these @ @ @ @ @ @ @ demonstrating our technology leadership in population-dense and high traffic locations.
” The new contract award means that Ericsson has now won 113 deals to supply its 5G tech around the world .
Last month BT signed a deal with rival firm Nokia to provide 5G radio equipment for a group of other towns and cities across the UK , as well as a number of rural areas .
Commenting on today ’ s deal BT chief executive Philip Jansen said : “ Our customers deserve the best network and we are delivering .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ growth as China 5G tensions mount “ We ’ re the UK leader in 5G and are excited to be working with Ericsson as a key partner to maintain that market leadership .
Through this deal , we will continue to drive the best mobile experiences for our customers .
”

BT taps Ericsson to provide London 5G networks
BT has chosen Swedish telecoms firm Ericsson to provide 5G radio equipment in London, Edinburgh, Belfast, Cardiff and other major UK cities.
The deal means that when rollout is completed, Ericsson will manage around 50 per cent of BT’s 5G traffic.
It comes just months after the government said it would ban Chinese firm Huawei from its 5G networks.
Earlier this year, BT selected Ericsson to provide its cloud-computing 5G core, meaning the Swedish firm is now BT’s end-to-end partner for the new tech.
In addition, it will also help BT modernise its 2G and 4G network.
Börje Ekholm, President and CEO, Ericsson, said: “Having already been selected to partner in 5G Core, we are pleased to strengthen the relationship further with this deal that will deliver high performance and secure 5G to their customers across the UK’s major cities.
Before the Open newsletter: Start your day with the City View podcast and key market data
“By deploying 5G in these key areas, we are yet again demonstrating our technology leadership in population-dense and high traffic locations.”
The new contract award means that Ericsson has now won 113 deals to supply its 5G tech around the world.
Last month BT signed a deal with rival firm Nokia to provide 5G radio equipment for a group of other towns and cities across the UK, as well as a number of rural areas.
Commenting on today’s deal BT chief executive Philip Jansen said: “Our customers deserve the best network and we are delivering.
“We’re the UK leader in 5G and are excited to be working with Ericsson as a key partner to maintain that market leadership. Through this deal, we will continue to drive the best mobile experiences for our customers.”


cityam--2020-10-28--Institutions don’t share retail investors’ optimism on returns

Schroders ’ studies suggest retail – or individual – investors are more optimistic about future returns than investors at large institutions .
Individuals have indicated that they expect average annual returns of nearly 11 % over the next five years while institutional investors anticipate a more moderate 6 % .
Schroders ’ Institutional Investor Study is an analysis of views from investors at 650 pension funds , insurance companies , sovereign wealth funds and foundations from 20 locations across the world .
The Global Investor Study , which surveys individual investors , asked more than 23,000 respondents across 32 locations @ @ @ @ @ @ @ little changed compared to a year earlier , despite two thirds of individual investors expecting economic pain from Covid-19 to last anything between six months to two years .
The returns expectations include investment growth , as well as any income from a variety of investments including cash , bonds , property funds and equities .
When we undertook these studies in 2019 , we discovered similar global expectations for both groups : individuals expected returns of 10.7 % ( 10.9 % this year ) while institutions forecast a smaller 5.7 % ( @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Discover more : – Learn : Would a Biden presidency hurt stock markets ?
– Read : What ’ s driving stock market returns ?
– Watch : Is Big Tech under threat ?
There was an apparent relationship between future return expectations and historic market performance .
In regions where returns in recent years have been high , such as the US , future expectations also tended to be higher .
In other areas , such as Japan , lower historic returns appeared to lead to lower predictions .
Schroders ’ estimates @ @ @ @ @ @ @ returns .
It ’ s one of our “ inescapable investment truths ” that returns will be lower during the next decade than they have been historically .
Every year Schroders ’ economics team puts together forecasts for the decade ahead for major financial markets .
For the period 2019-2029 , the team expects global equity market annual returns to average 5.7 % .
Not even emerging markets equities can offer the type of returns individual investors are after ; according to our economists ’ estimates , they could generate returns of 8.5 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bond market should be emerging market bonds ( 5.2 % ) while Japanese bonds could deliver negative returns .
The studies also looked at investors ’ asset allocation .
As has been the case since we first launched the institutional survey in 2017 , developed equity markets are the most popular asset class .
In line with previous years ’ results , investors plan to allocate more than 30 % of their portfolios in developed market equities in 2020 and plan on increasing this to 33.1 % in the next 12 months .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ their allocation to is private assets .
The second biggest allocation ( nearly 25 % ) is to developed market bonds with emerging market equities and bonds making up a more moderate 8 % each .
Among individual investors , stocks and shares are also a top pick , with 62 % of respondents having put their money to work in this way .
Holding cash in bank accounts was another popular choice among individual investors .
• For more visit Schroders insights and follow Schroders on twitter .
The forecasts included should @ @ @ @ @ @ @ guaranteed and are provided only as at the date of issue .
Forecasts and assumptions may be affected by external economic or other factors .
The global study was commissioned by Schroders for a fourth consecutive year to analyse institutional investors and their attitudes towards investment objectives , performance outlook and risks to their portfolio .
The respondent pool represents a spectrum of institutions , including pension funds , insurance companies , sovereign wealth funds , endowments and foundations managing approximately $ 25.9 trillion in assets .
The research was carried out via @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The 650 institutional respondents were split as follows : 179 in North America , 248 in EMEA , 173 in Asia Pacific and 50 in Latin America .
Respondents were sourced from 26 different countries .
Schroders commissioned Raconteur to conduct an independent online study of 23,450 people in 32 locations around the world between 30 April and 15 June 2020 .
This research defines “ people ” as those who will be investing at least €10,000 ( or the equivalent ) in the next 12 months and who have made changes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ years .
Important Information : This communication is marketing material .
The views and opinions contained herein are those of the author ( s ) on this page , and may not necessarily represent views expressed or reflected in other Schroders communications , strategies or funds .
This material is intended to be for information purposes only and is not intended as promotional material in any respect .
The material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument .
It is not intended to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for accounting , legal or tax advice , or investment recommendations .
Reliance should not be placed on the views and information in this document when taking individual investment and/or strategic decisions .
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results .
The value of an investment can go down as well as up and is not guaranteed .
All investments involve risks including the risk of possible loss of principal .
Information herein is believed to be reliable but Schroders does not warrant its completeness or accuracy .
Some information @ @ @ @ @ @ @ consider to be reliable .
No responsibility can be accepted for errors of fact obtained from third parties , and this data may change with market conditions .
This does not exclude any duty or liability that Schroders has to its customers under any regulatory system .
Regions/ sectors shown for illustrative purposes only and should not be viewed as a recommendation to buy/sell .
The opinions in this material include some forecasted views .
We believe we are basing our expectations and beliefs on reasonable assumptions within the bounds of what we @ @ @ @ @ @ @ no guarantee than any forecasts or opinions will be realised .
These views and opinions may change .
To the extent that you are in North America , this content is issued by Schroder Investment Management North America Inc. , an indirect wholly owned subsidiary of Schroders plc and SEC registered adviser providing asset management products and services to clients in the US and Canada .
For all other users , this content is issued by Schroder Investment Management Limited , 1 London Wall Place , London EC2Y 5AU .
Registered No .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Financial Conduct Authority .

What is City Talk? City Talk allows marketers to connect directly with our audience by publishing content on cityam.com
Institutions don’t share retail investors’ optimism on returns
Getty Images
Schroders’ studies suggest retail – or individual – investors are more optimistic about future returns than investors at large institutions. Individuals have indicated that they expect average annual returns of nearly 11% over the next five years while institutional investors anticipate a more moderate 6%.
Schroders’ Institutional Investor Study is an analysis of views from investors at 650 pension funds, insurance companies, sovereign wealth funds and foundations from 20 locations across the world. The Global Investor Study, which surveys individual investors, asked more than 23,000 respondents across 32 locations for their investment views.
Sentiment appears little changed compared to a year earlier, despite two thirds of individual investors expecting economic pain from Covid-19 to last anything between six months to two years.
The returns expectations include investment growth, as well as any income from a variety of investments including cash, bonds, property funds and equities.
When we undertook these studies in 2019, we discovered similar global expectations for both groups: individuals expected returns of 10.7% (10.9% this year) while institutions forecast a smaller 5.7% (versus 5.9% this year).
Discover more:
– Learn: Would a Biden presidency hurt stock markets?
– Read: What’s driving stock market returns?
– Watch: Is Big Tech under threat?
There was an apparent relationship between future return expectations and historic market performance. In regions where returns in recent years have been high, such as the US, future expectations also tended to be higher. In other areas, such as Japan, lower historic returns appeared to lead to lower predictions.
Should investors prepare for disappointment?
Schroders’ estimates suggest individuals could be disappointed by future returns. It’s one of our “inescapable investment truths” that returns will be lower during the next decade than they have been historically.
Every year Schroders’ economics team puts together forecasts for the decade ahead for major financial markets. For the period 2019-2029, the team expects global equity market annual returns to average 5.7%.
Not even emerging markets equities can offer the type of returns individual investors are after; according to our economists’ estimates, they could generate returns of 8.5%.
Similarly, the best performing bond market should be emerging market bonds (5.2%) while Japanese bonds could deliver negative returns.
What’s the most popular asset class?
The studies also looked at investors’ asset allocation. As has been the case since we first launched the institutional survey in 2017, developed equity markets are the most popular asset class.
In line with previous years’ results, investors plan to allocate more than 30% of their portfolios in developed market equities in 2020 and plan on increasing this to 33.1% in the next 12 months. The other area investors intend to increase their allocation to is private assets.
The second biggest allocation (nearly 25%) is to developed market bonds with emerging market equities and bonds making up a more moderate 8% each.
Among individual investors, stocks and shares are also a top pick, with 62% of respondents having put their money to work in this way. Holding cash in bank accounts was another popular choice among individual investors.
For more visit Schroders insights and follow Schroders on twitter.
The forecasts included should not be relied upon, are not guaranteed and are provided only as at the date of issue. Forecasts and assumptions may be affected by external economic or other factors.
About the Schroder Institutional Investor Study:
The global study was commissioned by Schroders for a fourth consecutive year to analyse institutional investors and their attitudes towards investment objectives, performance outlook and risks to their portfolio. The respondent pool represents a spectrum of institutions, including pension funds, insurance companies, sovereign wealth funds, endowments and foundations managing approximately $25.9 trillion in assets. The research was carried out via an extensive global survey during April 2020. The 650 institutional respondents were split as follows: 179 in North America, 248 in EMEA, 173 in Asia Pacific and 50 in Latin America. Respondents were sourced from 26 different countries.
About the Schroders Global Investor Study:
Schroders commissioned Raconteur to conduct an independent online study of 23,450 people in 32 locations around the world between 30 April and 15 June 2020. This research defines “people” as those who will be investing at least €10,000 (or the equivalent) in the next 12 months and who have made changes to their investments within the last 10 years.
Important Information: This communication is marketing material. The views and opinions contained herein are those of the author(s) on this page, and may not necessarily represent views expressed or reflected in other Schroders communications, strategies or funds. This material is intended to be for information purposes only and is not intended as promotional material in any respect. The material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. It is not intended to provide and should not be relied on for accounting, legal or tax advice, or investment recommendations. Reliance should not be placed on the views and information in this document when taking individual investment and/or strategic decisions. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. The value of an investment can go down as well as up and is not guaranteed. All investments involve risks including the risk of possible loss of principal. Information herein is believed to be reliable but Schroders does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Some information quoted was obtained from external sources we consider to be reliable. No responsibility can be accepted for errors of fact obtained from third parties, and this data may change with market conditions. This does not exclude any duty or liability that Schroders has to its customers under any regulatory system. Regions/ sectors shown for illustrative purposes only and should not be viewed as a recommendation to buy/sell. The opinions in this material include some forecasted views. We believe we are basing our expectations and beliefs on reasonable assumptions within the bounds of what we currently know. However, there is no guarantee than any forecasts or opinions will be realised. These views and opinions may change. To the extent that you are in North America, this content is issued by Schroder Investment Management North America Inc., an indirect wholly owned subsidiary of Schroders plc and SEC registered adviser providing asset management products and services to clients in the US and Canada. For all other users, this content is issued by Schroder Investment Management Limited, 1 London Wall Place, London EC2Y 5AU. Registered No. 1893220 England. Authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.