cityam--2020-05-06--Analysis: Can Disney Plus rescue the House of Mouse?

Disney last night laid bare the extent of the damage from the coronavirus crisis , which has sent shockwaves through all parts of the entertainment giant ’ s business .
Chairman Bob Iger warned of “ unprecedented challenges ” as the company reported a $ 1.4bn ( £1.3bn ) hit to first-quarter operating income .
With lockdown shutting down its theme parks , cruises and its film and TV production , even the behemoth of Disney is not immune to the pandemic .
Overall , the outlook is uncertain for the House of Mouse .
However , it ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ boost to its Disney Plus streaming service and stands the firm in good stead to challenge the might of Netflix .
Disney could not have known what was to come when it launched its new streaming service last year , but the timing was uncanny .
In the UK , Disney Plus launched the day after Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced that the country was going into lockdown .
The results are clear to see .
Disney Plus had 54.5m paying subscribers as of 4 May , with subscriber numbers doubling between February @ @ @ @ @ @ @ uptake means the company is well ahead of its target of reaching between 60m and 90m subscribers by the end of 2024 .
It ’ s still some way behind rival Netflix , which now has 167m subscribers and Amazon Prime , which has more than 150m .
However , the speed at which Disney has made up ground on its competitors will raise hopes for its prospects in the coming years when it can ramp up releases of original content .
Nicholas Hyett , equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown , said the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ better timed ” .
“ Disney ’ s answer to Netflix has been able to capitalise on the huge swathes of the global population confined to their couches to grow the paying subscriber base to a whopping 50m+ in a matter of months , ” he said .
“ It ’ s testament to the quality of Disney ’ s back catalogue.
” Hulu , the other US streaming service owned by Disney , has also increased its subscriber base 27 per cent in the last year to more than 32m .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ direct to consumer division , where revenue rose from $ 1.1bn to $ 4.1bn in the first quarter .
However , the firm is still pumping large amounts of cash into the ventures , and the loss from the unit was $ 812m .
More concerning , however , is the impact of Covid-19 on the rest of the business .
In January the company closed its Disneyland sites in Shanghai and Hong Kong as a result of the pandemic .
By mid-March the remainder of its theme parks were closed and all @ @ @ @ @ @ @ closures have scuppered theatrical releases in its studios division , while all TV and film productions have been put on hold .
ESPN has been left with no major sports events to broadcast .
David Madden , market analyst at CMC Markets , said the pandemic had caused “ chaos ” for the group .
Read more : O2 pairs up with Disney Plus to be its UK mobile network distributor Disney chief executive Bob Chapek , who is just a few months into his new role , was last night insistent the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Disney has repeatedly shown that it is exceptionally resilient , bolstered by the quality of our storytelling and the strong affinity consumers have for our brands , ” he said .
It has taken drastic measures to cut costs , including scrapping its planned dividend payment .
Roughly 120,000 employees have been furloughed , while executives have taken a pay cut .
Disney ’ s debt pile has mounted after recent debt raises , as well as its $ 71bn acquisition of 21st Century Fox from Rupert Murdoch ’ s empire , which @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Disney closes $ 71bn takeover of 21st Century Fox as it puts Netflix in its sights However , the company has a strong cash position and a hefty underlying asset base .
“ As we have seen , cash is king at the moment and Disney ’ s strength prior to this will still likely stand the business in good stead to weather the storm , at least for some time , ” said Alec Dafferner , partner at GP Bullhound .
Hopes for the future will be pinned on Disney Plus , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on when lockdowns are lifted and its live entertainment divisions can get back to business .
Chapek last night said Disneyland Shanghai will reopen on 11 May , albeit with reduced visitor numbers and stringent social distancing measures .
The chief executive also maintained the 24 July release date for the live-action version of Mulan — Disney ’ s first major release of the year — suggesting optimism about cinema reopenings .
“ Disney ’ s share price performance , as with so many other businesses , will be closely linked to the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ safely , ” said Lewis Grant , senior global equities portfolio manager at Federated Hermes .
“ Disneyland Shanghai is due to open imminently with new safety precautions and a significantly reduced capacity .
Investors will be watching closely to see whether these measures reassure consumers and can be replicated elsewhere.
” Chapek has suggested that there will be pent-up demand for theme parks when lockdown measures are lifted , and more optimistic investors will be hoping for a boom from Disney ’ s backlog of film releases .
Ben Barringer , equity @ @ @ @ @ @ @ he was “ reassured that Disney is testing the water and reviving some operations on a trial basis ” .
But the road ahead could be a long one .
Barringer forecast earnings improvement from next year and stabilisation in 2022 .

Analysis: Can Disney Plus rescue the House of Mouse?
Disney last night laid bare the extent of the damage from the coronavirus crisis, which has sent shockwaves through all parts of the entertainment giant’s business.
Chairman Bob Iger warned of “unprecedented challenges” as the company reported a $1.4bn (£1.3bn) hit to first-quarter operating income.
With lockdown shutting down its theme parks, cruises and its film and TV production, even the behemoth of Disney is not immune to the pandemic.
Overall, the outlook is uncertain for the House of Mouse. However, it’s clear that Covid-19 has given a huge boost to its Disney Plus streaming service and stands the firm in good stead to challenge the might of Netflix.
Where streams come true
Disney could not have known what was to come when it launched its new streaming service last year, but the timing was uncanny.
In the UK, Disney Plus launched the day after Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced that the country was going into lockdown.
The results are clear to see. Disney Plus had 54.5m paying subscribers as of 4 May, with subscriber numbers doubling between February and April.
The rapid surge in uptake means the company is well ahead of its target of reaching between 60m and 90m subscribers by the end of 2024.
It’s still some way behind rival Netflix, which now has 167m subscribers and Amazon Prime, which has more than 150m.
However, the speed at which Disney has made up ground on its competitors will raise hopes for its prospects in the coming years when it can ramp up releases of original content.
Nicholas Hyett, equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, said the launch “couldn’t have been better timed”.
“Disney’s answer to Netflix has been able to capitalise on the huge swathes of the global population confined to their couches to grow the paying subscriber base to a whopping 50m+ in a matter of months,” he said. “It’s testament to the quality of Disney’s back catalogue.”
Hulu, the other US streaming service owned by Disney, has also increased its subscriber base 27 per cent in the last year to more than 32m.
Corona chaos
The streaming success has bolstered Disney’s direct to consumer division, where revenue rose from $1.1bn to $4.1bn in the first quarter. However, the firm is still pumping large amounts of cash into the ventures, and the loss from the unit was $812m.
More concerning, however, is the impact of Covid-19 on the rest of the business.
In January the company closed its Disneyland sites in Shanghai and Hong Kong as a result of the pandemic. By mid-March the remainder of its theme parks were closed and all cruise departures had been suspended.
Cinema closures have scuppered theatrical releases in its studios division, while all TV and film productions have been put on hold. ESPN has been left with no major sports events to broadcast.
David Madden, market analyst at CMC Markets, said the pandemic had caused “chaos” for the group.
The road to recovery
Disney chief executive Bob Chapek, who is just a few months into his new role, was last night insistent the company could withstand the crisis.
“Disney has repeatedly shown that it is exceptionally resilient, bolstered by the quality of our storytelling and the strong affinity consumers have for our brands,” he said.
It has taken drastic measures to cut costs, including scrapping its planned dividend payment. Roughly 120,000 employees have been furloughed, while executives have taken a pay cut.
Disney’s debt pile has mounted after recent debt raises, as well as its $71bn acquisition of 21st Century Fox from Rupert Murdoch’s empire, which completed last year.
However, the company has a strong cash position and a hefty underlying asset base.
“As we have seen, cash is king at the moment and Disney’s strength prior to this will still likely stand the business in good stead to weather the storm, at least for some time,” said Alec Dafferner, partner at GP Bullhound.
Hopes for the future will be pinned on Disney Plus, but the most pressing concern will be on when lockdowns are lifted and its live entertainment divisions can get back to business.
Chapek last night said Disneyland Shanghai will reopen on 11 May, albeit with reduced visitor numbers and stringent social distancing measures.
The chief executive also maintained the 24 July release date for the live-action version of Mulan — Disney’s first major release of the year — suggesting optimism about cinema reopenings.
“Disney’s share price performance, as with so many other businesses, will be closely linked to the speed with which the economy can reopen safely,” said Lewis Grant, senior global equities portfolio manager at Federated Hermes.
“Disneyland Shanghai is due to open imminently with new safety precautions and a significantly reduced capacity. Investors will be watching closely to see whether these measures reassure consumers and can be replicated elsewhere.”
Chapek has suggested that there will be pent-up demand for theme parks when lockdown measures are lifted, and more optimistic investors will be hoping for a boom from Disney’s backlog of film releases.
Ben Barringer, equity research analyst at Quilter Cheviot, said he was “reassured that Disney is testing the water and reviving some operations on a trial basis”.
But the road ahead could be a long one. Barringer forecast earnings improvement from next year and stabilisation in 2022.


cityam--2020-05-06--McColl's finance chief departs for Holland & Barrett

The chief financial officer of McColl ’ s Retail Group will step down to join health food retailer Holland & Barrett , the convenience store chain announced this morning .
McColl ’ s said Robbie Bell had resigned to take up the finance chief role at Holland & Barrett .
Read more : McColl ’ s suspends dividend as it swings to £100m loss The company has launched a search for a successor , saying Bell will remain at McColl ’ s until a replacement has been appointed and a handover has taken place .
The exact date of his @ @ @ @ @ @ @ date , the convenience store company said today .
In February , McColl ’ s suspended the payment of its dividend as it announced a £100m loss for 2019 , down from a profit of £7.9m the previous year .
The company had warned it in December that it would miss expectations due to unseasonable weather and weak consumer confidence .
Chief executive Jonathan Miller said : “ I would like to thank Robbie for his contribution to McColl ’ s during his time here and we wish him well for the future @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for McColl ’ s as we continue to respond to increased customer demand and keep the neighbourhood communities we serve supplied with the food , goods and services they need every day.
” Former Welcome Break boss Bell joined the retailer last year , and was previously finance chief at Screwfix and Travelodge UK finance director .
Prior to that he held a number of senior positions at Tesco .
Bell added : “ It has been a pleasure working at McColl ’ s and I would like to thank Jonathan , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ support .
“ Whilst it was a difficult decision , I am stepping down to pursue a new opportunity , and I wish McColl ’ s every success in the future .
”

McColl’s finance chief departs for Holland & Barrett
The chief financial officer of McColl’s Retail Group will step down to join health food retailer Holland & Barrett, the convenience store chain announced this morning.
McColl’s said Robbie Bell had resigned to take up the finance chief role at Holland & Barrett.
The company has launched a search for a successor, saying Bell will remain at McColl’s until a replacement has been appointed and a handover has taken place.
The exact date of his departure will be announced at a later date, the convenience store company said today.
In February, McColl’s suspended the payment of its dividend as it announced a £100m loss for 2019, down from a profit of £7.9m the previous year. The company had warned it in December that it would miss expectations due to unseasonable weather and weak consumer confidence.
Chief executive Jonathan Miller said: “I would like to thank Robbie for his contribution to McColl’s during his time here and we wish him well for the future.
“This is a busy time for McColl’s as we continue to respond to increased customer demand and keep the neighbourhood communities we serve supplied with the food, goods and services they need every day.”
Former Welcome Break boss Bell joined the retailer last year, and was previously finance chief at Screwfix and Travelodge UK finance director. Prior to that he held a number of senior positions at Tesco.
Bell added: “It has been a pleasure working at McColl’s and I would like to thank Jonathan, the board and all my colleagues for their support.
“Whilst it was a difficult decision, I am stepping down to pursue a new opportunity, and I wish McColl’s every success in the future.”


cityam--2020-05-06--Rory Stewart pulls out of London mayoral race

Independent mayoral candidate Rory Stewart has pulled out of the race for City Hall .
The contest has been delayed for a year until 2021 due to the Covid-19 outbreak and Stewart , a former Tory cabinet minister , was unwilling to ask his unpaid staff to work a further year .
“ London remains the greatest city on earth , ” Stewart said in a video posted on Twitter .
“ It would have been the greatest privilege of my life to be the mayor of London.
” In a statement , Stewart said : “ It is with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ run in the postponed London mayoral election next year.
” Stewart said the postponement of the elections until next year because of the coronavirus pandemic made continuing his candidacy difficult .
Read more : Rory Stewart : The mayoral candidate in need of a London story “ While the considerable challenges of running as an independent were manageable for a normal race , they are forbidding for an extended and delayed election ” .
Former prisons minister Rory Stewart ran for the Conservative Party leadership last year on a soft Brexit ticket , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Ken Clarke and David Gauke .
After defeat in that race he made the surprise announcement in October that he would not contest the next General Election and would instead stand as an independent in the London mayoral race .
Stewart was also an outsider in that race , behind Labour incumbent Sadiq Khan and Conservative candidate Shaun Bailey .
The news was first reported by the Evening Standard .

Rory Stewart pulls out of London mayoral race
Independent mayoral candidate Rory Stewart has pulled out of the race for City Hall.
The contest has been delayed for a year until 2021 due to the Covid-19 outbreak and Stewart, a former Tory cabinet minister, was unwilling to ask his unpaid staff to work a further year.
It is with sadness that I have decided not to run in the postponed London Mayoral election next year. Thank you to all who supported me, engaged with the campaign and shared my vision of all London can achieve. pic.twitter.com/yF4loR2nvL — Rory Stewart (@RoryStewartUK) May 6, 2020
“London remains the greatest city on earth,”Stewart said in a video posted on Twitter. “It would have been the greatest privilege of my life to be the mayor of London.”
In a statement, Stewart said: “It is with sadness that I have decided not to run in the postponed London mayoral election next year.”
Stewart said the postponement of the elections until next year because of the coronavirus pandemic made continuing his candidacy difficult.
“While the considerable challenges of running as an independent were manageable for a normal race, they are forbidding for an extended and delayed election”.
Former prisons minister Rory Stewart ran for the Conservative Party leadership last year on a soft Brexit ticket, attracting support from former ministers such as Ken Clarke and David Gauke.
After defeat in that race he made the surprise announcement in October that he would not contest the next General Election and would instead stand as an independent in the London mayoral race.
Stewart was also an outsider in that race, behind Labour incumbent Sadiq Khan and Conservative candidate Shaun Bailey.
The news was first reported by the Evening Standard.


cityam--2020-05-06--Markets live: FTSE 100 rises as countries lift coronavirus lockdowns

The FTSE 100 and European stocks have risen , boosted by gains in healthcare even as dire economic data lays bare the effects of coronavirus .
Britain ’ s FTSE 100 index was 0.6 per cent higher approaching midday at 5,883 points .
It climbed around 1.8 per cent yesterday .
The mid-cap FTSE 250 index was up 0.7 per cent .
Read more : Coronavirus : UK construction sector grinds to a halt in worst month on record In Europe , the continent-wide Stoxx 600 was up 0.5 per cent .
Germany ’ s Dax was 0.3 per cent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was down 0.1 per cent .
In Asia , Chinese stocks climbed overnight as traders returned from a public holiday .
China ’ s CSI 300 index rose 0.6 per cent .
The move higher was spurred by the Chinese government ’ s decision to fix the yuan at a broadly neutral midpoint in the possible range , so as to cool simmering tensions with the US .
US stock markets were set to open higher as more states moved to ease coronavirus lockdown measures .
Oil prices continued their days-long rising streak @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cent at $ 31.70 per barrel .
WTI crude , the US benchmark , was up four per cent at $ 25.50 per barrel .
Investors are being pulled in two different directions .
On the one hand , there is optimism about moves by countries and US states to lift lockdown measures and “ reopen ” battered economies .
On the other , dire news about the economy keeps pouring in , reflecting the worst global slump since World War II .
The euro came under pressure after survey data showed that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ month on record in April .
It was last down 0.3 per cent at $ 1.081 .
The pound also fell after a survey showed that the construction sector juddered to a halt last month as coronavirus caused sites to close .
Sterling was 0.5 per cent lower at $ 1.238 .
However , European stocks were boosted by the healthcare sector today .
The Stoxx 600 healthcare index was lifted by better-than-expected results from Denmark ’ s Novo Nordisk and Germany ’ s Fresenius Medical Care .
On the FTSE 100 , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a 42 per cent drop in advertising revenue .
Shares rose four per cent , with analysts saying the ad plunge was not as bad as some had expected .
Read more : UK economy to shrink eight per cent this year amid coronavirus , says EU Craig Erlam , senior market analyst at currency firm Oanda , said the rise in stocks was a result of “ countries across Europe and parts of the US starting to ease lockdown conditions ” .
He added that investors were also continuing a “ blind-eye @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and were helped by “ unprecedented monetary stimulus ” .

Markets live: FTSE 100 rises as countries lift coronavirus lockdowns
The FTSE 100 and European stocks have risen, boosted by gains in healthcare even as dire economic data lays bare the effects of coronavirus.
Britain’s FTSE 100 index was trading 0.65 per cent higher before falling slightly to trade up 0.17 per cent at 5,859 points. It climbed around 1.8 per cent yesterday. The mid-cap FTSE 250 index was down 0.82 per cent to below 16,000 points.
In Europe, the continent-wide Stoxx 600 was up 0.1 per cent. Germany’s Dax rose 0.3 per cent but edged down 0.3 per cent in afternoon trading. France’s CAC 40 fell 0.4 per cent.
The small gains across Europe mimicked sentiment in Asia. Chinese stocks climbed overnight as traders returned from a public holiday. China’s CSI 300 index rose 0.6 per cent.
The move higher was spurred by the Chinese government’s decision to fix the yuan at a broadly neutral midpoint in the possible range, so as to cool simmering tensions with the US.
US stock markets were set to open higher as more states moved to ease coronavirus lockdown measures.
Oil prices continued their days-long rising streak. Brent crude was up two per cent at $31.70 per barrel. WTI crude, the US benchmark, was up four per cent at $25.50 per barrel.
FTSE 100 investors look past dire economic data
Investors are being pulled in two different directions. On the one hand, there is optimism about moves by countries and US states to lift lockdown measures and “reopen” battered economies.
On the other, dire news about the economy keeps pouring in, reflecting the worst global slump since World War II.
The euro came under pressure after survey data showed that the single currency area suffered its worst month on record in April. It was last down 0.3 per cent at $1.081.
The pound also fell ahead of a survey that showed the construction sector juddered to a halt last month as coronavirus caused sites to close. Sterling was 0.5 per cent lower at $1.238.
However, European stocks were boosted by the healthcare sector today. The Stoxx 600 healthcare index was lifted by better-than-expected results from Denmark’s Novo Nordisk and Germany’s Fresenius Medical Care.
On the FTSE 100, ITV was the biggest riser despite reporting a 42 per cent drop in advertising revenue. Shares rose six per cent, with analysts saying the ad plunge was not as bad as some had expected.
Ocado rose more than four per cent in afternoon trading, despite the online grocer suspending guidance amid the pandemic.
Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at currency firm Oanda, said the rise in stocks was a result of “countries across Europe and parts of the US starting to ease lockdown conditions”.
He added that investors were also continuing a “blind-eye approach to the data and earnings” and were helped by “unprecedented monetary stimulus”.
US stocks falter as unemployment figures show extent of coronavirus impact
US stocks opened higher for a third day before turning negative, as figures show 20m Americans have been made redundant since lockdown began.
Investors seemed to be encouraged that lockdowns are beginning to ease across Europe and in some American states. Around 20 states have lifted restrictions which don’t meet the White House guidelines for reopening.
The Dow Jones opened up nearly 0.3 per cent higher, before falling 0.22 per cent to 23,830 points. The S&P 500 edged up 0.31 per cent before dropping 0.3 per cent.
The Nasdaq Composite was the only index to rise, trading up 0.14 per cent.
Lower oil prices are once again weighing on energy and industrial stocks. Financial companies are also down, with American Express and JP Morgan down more than 1.5 per cent.
It came after a report showed more than 20m US citizens were made redundant between March and April. The figures mean approximately 13 per cent of the 162m Americans employed in the private sector have lost their jobs since the lockdown was imposed.


cityam--2020-05-06--Heathrow expansion: UK will not need third runway for up to 15 years

The chief executive of Heathrow today said it could be 10 to 15 years before the UK need a third runway at the airport due to the coronavirus crisis .
Speaking to the transport select committee , John Holland-Kaye insisted that a third runway at the airport remained “ a critical economic plank for the growth of the country ” .
Read more : Heathrow expects passenger numbers to fall 97 per cent during ‘ major crisis for aviation ’ When asked if the coronavirus crisis had blown a “ massive hole ” in the business case for a third @ @ @ @ @ @ @ country would still need it : “ In 10 to 15 years , if we are successful in rebooting the UK economy and getting back to full swing , then I think we will still need a third runway at that point ” .
However , he warned that progress on the development would depend on “ how things turn out over the next few years ” .
Holland-Kaye clarified that the airport was still pursuing its appeal against the Court of Appeal ’ s decision in February to rule the business case @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Listen to our daily City View podcast as we chart the economic fallout and business impact of the coronavirus pandemic .
According to the judgement , the government ’ s policy statement on the project did not take into account its commitment to the Paris climate accords .
Last week the airport said that all expansion plans would be pushed back by two years at least due to the coronavirus disruption .
Holland-Kaye revealed that the airport was burning through cash at a rate of £200m a month , and has the liquidity @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
According to Eurocontrol , there were only 187 flights from the airport yesterday , down from 1338 on the same day in 2019 .
Read more : Heathrow boss calls for coronavirus tests at UK airports Along with other representative of the UK ’ s airports , Holland-Kaye said that the government needed to do more to help airlines and airports begin flying again , warning that the recovery of the UK economy depended on it : “ If you want to get the UK economy started again , you have to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .

Heathrow expansion: UK will not need third runway for up to 15 years
The chief executive of Heathrow today said it could be 10 to 15 years before the UK need a third runway at the airport due to the coronavirus crisis.
Speaking to the transport select committee, John Holland-Kaye insisted that a third runway at the airport remained “a critical economic plank for the growth of the country”.
When asked if the coronavirus crisis had blown a “massive hole” in the business case for a third runway at Heathrow, Holland-Kaye insisted the country would still need it:
“In 10 to 15 years, if we are successful in rebooting the UK economy and getting back to full swing, then I think we will still need a third runway at that point”.
However, he warned that progress on the development would depend on “how things turn out over the next few years”.
Holland-Kaye clarified that the airport was still pursuing its appeal against the Court of Appeal’s decision in February to rule the business case for the expansion “unlawful”.
Listen to our daily City View podcast as we chart the economic fallout and business impact of the coronavirus pandemic.
According to the judgement, the government’s policy statement on the project did not take into account its commitment to the Paris climate accords.
Last week the airport said that all expansion plans would be pushed back by two years at least due to the coronavirus disruption.
Holland-Kaye revealed that the airport was burning through cash at a rate of £200m a month, and has the liquidity to survive for up to a year.
According to Eurocontrol, there were only 187 flights from the airport yesterday, down from 1338 on the same day in 2019.
Along with other representative of the UK’s airports, Holland-Kaye said that the government needed to do more to help airlines and airports begin flying again, warning that the recovery of the UK economy depended on it:
“If you want to get the UK economy started again, you have to get the aviation sector started again”.


cityam--2020-05-06--UK draws up three-stage plan for easing coronavirus lockdown

The UK has drawn up a three-point plan to ease the coronavirus lockdown , the Times reported .
The government must review the lockdown by 7 May , but Prime Minister Boris Johnson has said he is worried that a speedy reopening could cause a second spike in cases .
Read more : ‘ A matter for police ’ : Hancock ‘ speechless ’ over Professor Neil Ferguson ’ s lockdown breach The first phase of relaxation will involve outdoor workplaces and small shops reopening , the second will involve large shopping centres reopening and more people being encouraged to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Pubs , restaurants , hotels and leisure centres will be among the last businesses to reopen , the Times said .
The UK lockdown was announced by Johnson in a televised speech on 23 March with tough restrictions on movement introduced the next day .
Three weeks later on 16 April , Dominic Raab – standing in for the coronavirus-stricken Prime Minister – said lockdown would persist for at least another three weeks as the UK was not past the peak of the disease .
Read more : Markets live : FTSE @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lockdowns Government measures accelerated quickly from 16 March when people had been told to avoid all non-essential contact with each other to 20 March when all pubs , restaurants and cafes were closed .
Johnson said last week that the UK was past the peak of coronavirus .
“ I will be laying out a comprehensive plan next week to explain how we will get our economy running , how we get our children back into school and childcare and how we can travel to work and how we can make life in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Read more : Workers should work ‘ four days on , 10 days off ’ to ease coronavirus lockdown Data released yesterday showed deaths in England and Wales in the week to 24 April fell , the first time since the coronavirus lockdown began , according to data from the Office for National Statistics ( ONS ) .
England and Wales recorded 21,997 total deaths for the week to 24 April , the figures revealed .
That is a decline of 354 deaths compared to the previous week .
And it is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 20 March .

UK draws up three-stage plan for easing coronavirus lockdown
A woman walks in Trafalgar Square in the National Gallery in the background in London on May 5 during the UK lockdown
The UK has drawn up a three-point plan to ease the coronavirus lockdown, the Times reported.
The government must review the lockdown by 7 May, but Prime Minister Boris Johnson has said he is worried that a speedy reopening could cause a second spike in cases.
The first phase of relaxation will involve outdoor workplaces and small shops reopening, the second will involve large shopping centres reopening and more people being encouraged to return to work, the report said.
Pubs, restaurants, hotels and leisure centres will be among the last businesses to reopen, the Times said.
The UK lockdown was announced by Johnson in a televised speech on 23 March with tough restrictions on movement introduced the next day.
Three weeks later on 16 April, Dominic Raab – standing in for the coronavirus-stricken Prime Minister – said lockdown would persist for at least another three weeks as the UK was not past the peak of the disease.
Government measures accelerated quickly from 16 March when people had been told to avoid all non-essential contact with each other to 20 March when all pubs, restaurants and cafes were closed.
Johnson said last week that the UK was past the peak of coronavirus.
“I will be laying out a comprehensive plan next week to explain how we will get our economy running, how we get our children back into school and childcare and how we can travel to work and how we can make life in the workplace safer,” Johnson said.
Data released yesterday showed deaths in England and Wales in the week to 24 April fell, the first time since the coronavirus lockdown began, according to data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
England and Wales recorded 21,997 total deaths for the week to 24 April, the figures revealed.
That is a decline of 354 deaths compared to the previous week. And it is the first time deaths have fallen since 20 March.


cityam--2020-05-06--UK lockdown: Shoppers spend more on booze, beauty and crafts

Brits have been splashing out on tequila , crafts and their beauty and exercise regimes during the UK lockdown , according to the latest data on consumer spending .
The data from John Lewis showed that sales of skincare products jumped 183 per cent and facial masks are hair treatments soared 187 per cent during the UK coronavirus lockdown .
Read more : Shoppers spend extra £524m at UK supermarkets in April Make-up and self-tanning product sales surged 57 per cent and 41 per cent respectively .
Sales of elastic soared by a huge 1430 per cent as people made @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was “ stronger than ever ” for sewing machines and knitting yarn , the department store said .
Perhaps more unexpectedly , sales of landline phones jumped 80 per cent during the UK lockdown despite the popularity of Zoom calls .
Other popular buys included decorative bedding , which saw sales rise 130 per cent .
Many people were using the extra time at home to experiment in the kitchen , with 26 per cent of respondents saying they had cooked more unusual meals .
Read more : Michael Spencer : Government must @ @ @ @ @ @ @ UK lockdown Waitrose.com searches for cuisines including Japanese and Thai food have soared and sales of kimchi rose 43 per cent .
In total , 25 per cent of alcohol drinkers are consuming more booze during the UK lockdown , but 21 per cent said they were drinking less as pubs and restaurants are closed .
Tequila sales have surged 175 per cent and liqueurs sales are up 78 per cent as people experiment with cocktails at home .
“ The past few weeks have been unlike anything any of us have ever @ @ @ @ @ @ @ director of general merchandise at John Lewis .
“ The Covid-19 pandemic has impacted every part of our lives , from how we communicate to how we live day to day , and even how we keep our children entertained .
Read more : UK coronavirus lockdown : Consumers spend more on video games and online shopping “ This time at home has in some ways brought people closer together , providing that extra time to call a loved one or spend precious quality time with the family.
” He added : “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ loved ones driving high demand for laptops and landlines , the country has also been buying gym equipment , self care products and loungewear as people seek comfort and solutions to cope with the evolving environment around them .
”

UK lockdown: Shoppers spend more on booze, beauty and crafts
Brits have been splashing out on tequila, crafts and their beauty and exercise regimes during the UK lockdown, according to the latest data on consumer spending.
The data from John Lewis showed that sales of skincare products jumped 183 per cent and facial masks are hair treatments soared 187 per cent during the UK coronavirus lockdown.
Make-up and self-tanning product sales surged 57 per cent and 41 per cent respectively.
Sales of elastic soared by a huge 1430 per cent as people made their own face masks, and demand was “stronger than ever” for sewing machines and knitting yarn, the department store said.
Perhaps more unexpectedly, sales of landline phones jumped 80 per cent during the UK lockdown despite the popularity of Zoom calls.
Other popular buys included decorative bedding, which saw sales rise 130 per cent.
Many people were using the extra time at home to experiment in the kitchen, with 26 per cent of respondents saying they had cooked more unusual meals.
Waitrose.com searches for cuisines including Japanese and Thai food have soared and sales of kimchi rose 43 per cent.
In total, 25 per cent of alcohol drinkers are consuming more booze during the UK lockdown, but 21 per cent said they were drinking less as pubs and restaurants are closed.
Tequila sales have surged 175 per cent and liqueurs sales are up 78 per cent as people experiment with cocktails at home.
“The past few weeks have been unlike anything any of us have ever experienced,” said Simon Coble, director of general merchandise at John Lewis.
“The Covid-19 pandemic has impacted every part of our lives, from how we communicate to how we live day to day, and even how we keep our children entertained.
“This time at home has in some ways brought people closer together, providing that extra time to call a loved one or spend precious quality time with the family.”
He added: “From keeping in touch with work and loved ones driving high demand for laptops and landlines, the country has also been buying gym equipment, self care products and loungewear as people seek comfort and solutions to cope with the evolving environment around them.”


cityam--2020-05-06--Goldman Sachs in talks to buy Invesco holdings

Goldman Sachs is reportedly in talks to buy a large portfolio of company stakes being sold by Invesco .
A unit of Goldman Sachs Asset Management is closing in on a deal to acquire the positions , according to Sky News reports , which could be closed within weeks .
Invesco had applied a 60 per cent reduction to the portfolio at the end of March but the broadcaster said it was unclear whether there will be any further discount .
Some of Invesco ’ s holdings were assembled by the disgraced fund manager Neil Woodford , who left the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ management company , which imploded last year .
They are now overseen by Woodford ’ s protege Mark Barnett .
Listen to our daily City View podcast as we chart the economic fallout and business impact of the coronavirus pandemic .
The transaction indicates Invesco is looking to offload illiquid holdings whose value has fallen as a result of the coronavirus outbreak .
In January , investors pulled at least £1bn from Invesco funds managed by Barnett in the final quarter of 2019 amid mounting concerns over liquidity following the collapse of Woodford @ @ @ @ @ @ @ : Invesco and Woodford protege Mark Barnett sacked by Perpetual Income and Growth Estimates from financial data provider Morningstar suggested the three funds managed by Barnett — Invesco Income , High Income , and UK Strategic Income — suffered total outflows of just over £1bn in the final three months of 2019 .
Last month , Perpetual Income and Growth Investment Trust sacked Barnett for underperformance .
It was a further blow to the fund manager , who lost control of Edinburgh Investment Trust at the end of last year .
Get the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ A.M. on Twitter .

Goldman Sachs in talks to buy Invesco holdings
Goldman Sachs is reportedly in talks to buy a large portfolio of company stakes being sold by Invesco.
A unit of Goldman Sachs Asset Management is closing in on a deal to acquire the positions, according to Sky News reports, which could be closed within weeks.
Invesco had applied a 60 per cent reduction to the portfolio at the end of March but the broadcaster said it was unclear whether there will be any further discount.
Some of Invesco’s holdings were assembled by the disgraced fund manager Neil Woodford, who left the firm to set up his own asset management company, which imploded last year. They are now overseen by Woodford’s protege Mark Barnett.
Listen to our daily City View podcast as we chart the economic fallout and business impact of the coronavirus pandemic.
The transaction indicates Invesco is looking to offload illiquid holdings whose value has fallen as a result of the coronavirus outbreak.
In January, investors pulled at least £1bn from Invesco funds managed by Barnett in the final quarter of 2019 amid mounting concerns over liquidity following the collapse of Woodford’s investment empire.
Estimates from financial data provider Morningstar suggested the three funds managed by Barnett — Invesco Income, High Income, and UK Strategic Income — suffered total outflows of just over £1bn in the final three months of 2019.
Last month, Perpetual Income and Growth Investment Trust sacked Barnett for underperformance. It was a further blow to the fund manager, who lost control of Edinburgh Investment Trust at the end of last year.
Get the news as it happens by following City A.M. on Twitter.


cityam--2020-05-06--Government misses testing target for fourth consecutive day

The government has missed its target for coronavirus testing for the fourth day in the row , after just 69,463 tests were carried out yesterday .
In the Downing Street daily briefing , communities secretary Robert Jenrick confirmed 69,463 tests had been carried out in the past day .
Read more : Boris Johnson announces target of 200,000 coronavirus tests a day by end of May More than 30,000 people have died from coronavirus in the UK , after a further 649 deaths in the past day .
Earlier today , Boris Johnson pledged to reach 200,000 tests for coronavirus @ @ @ @ @ @ @ government announced it had hit its target of 100,000 tests on Friday , but the number of coronavirus tests has since fallen back .
Listen to our daily City View podcast as we chart the economic fallout and business impact of the coronavirus pandemic .
Cases in hospital have declined , from 13,922 yesterday to 13,615 today .
Professor Yvonne Doyle medical director of Public Health England , said there were now more new cases in the North West than in London , but there was overall a decrease which is “ good @ @ @ @ @ @ @ there had been another 6,111 new cases it was because the government had ramped up coronavirus testing .
“ We want to find the positive cases so we can break transmission , ” she said .
Earlier , the PM told MPs he “ bitterly regrets ” the epidemic raging in care homes as the latest numbers show deaths in care homes are continuing to rise , despite a drop in hospital deaths .
Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer accused Johnson of failing to get a grip on the issue at Prime Minister @ @ @ @ @ @ @ UK draws up three-stage plan for easing coronavirus lockdown Johnson suggested the UK could “ get going ” with easing some lockdown measures from Monday .
He signalled a second phase may come into force after he gives an update on the lockdown measures on Sunday .
“ I think it would be a good thing if people had an idea of what ’ s coming the following day , ” he told MPs .
Get the news as it happens by following City A.M. on Twitter .

Government misses testing target for fourth consecutive day
The government has missed its target for coronavirus testing for the fourth day in the row, after just 69,463 tests were carried out yesterday.
In the Downing Street daily briefing, communities secretary Robert Jenrick confirmed 69,463 tests had been carried out in the past day.
More than 30,000 people have died from coronavirus in the UK, after a further 649 deaths in the past day.
Earlier today, Boris Johnson pledged to reach 200,000 tests for coronavirus by the end of May.
The government announced it had hit its target of 100,000 tests on Friday, but the number of coronavirus tests has since fallen back.
Listen to our daily City View podcast as we chart the economic fallout and business impact of the coronavirus pandemic.
Cases in hospital have declined, from 13,922 yesterday to 13,615 today. Professor Yvonne Doyle medical director of Public Health England, said there were now more new cases in the North West than in London, but there was overall a decrease which is “good news”.
She added that while there had been another 6,111 new cases it was because the government had ramped up coronavirus testing. “We want to find the positive cases so we can break transmission,” she said.
Earlier, the PM told MPs he “bitterly regrets” the epidemic raging in care homes as the latest numbers show deaths in care homes are continuing to rise, despite a drop in hospital deaths.
Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer accused Johnson of failing to get a grip on the issue at Prime Minister’s Questions.
Johnson suggested the UK could “get going” with easing some lockdown measures from Monday. He signalled a second phase may come into force after he gives an update on the lockdown measures on Sunday.
“I think it would be a good thing if people had an idea of what’s coming the following day,” he told MPs.
Get the news as it happens by following City A.M. on Twitter.


cityam--2020-05-06--Aviation chiefs plead for more help from government amid coronavirus chaos

Representatives of the UK ’ s airports and airlines have said that the government must do more to support the aviation sector , warning that it “ does not understand the strategic role the industry plays in the economy ” .
Speaking to the transport select committee , Tim Aldersdale , the chief executive of Airlines UK , said that there were “ lots of levers the government could pull that it is not pulling to kick start the sector ” .
Read more : Airline body says face masks should be worn on flights to prevent the spread of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and Business Airports Group deputy chair Debra Bowen-Rees , who said that the industry was still awaiting “ real responses to the big questions ” .
She added that the government should match the Scottish administration ’ s decision to suspend business rates for airports , which make up a “ very large proportion of their bills ” .
Karen Dee , chair of Airport Operators Association , said that the aviation sector had been hit earlier and would suffer for longer than most other industries .
As a result , she said @ @ @ @ @ @ @ extends measures like the job retention scheme , with any immediate recovery likely to be “ piecemeal ” .
In addition , airline specific taxes like air passenger duty should be suspended , she said .
Read more : Heathrow expansion : UK will not need third runway for up to 15 years With the Department for Transport ’ s aviation restart and recovery unit set to meet for the first time , the three also called for “ internationally agreed measures ” on how mass aviation could begin again .
They also @ @ @ @ @ @ @ regional connectivity review , which was outlined after the collapse of Flybe in March .
John Holland-Kaye , chief executive of Heathrow , said that regional airlines and airports were “ vital lifelines for the regional economy ” .
The demise of Flybe , Bowen-Rees said , had left a “ huge gap ” in the market , but the government needs to create the conditions to allow airlines to move into it : “ What we need is for the environment to be created that will enable the airlines that we have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ into that gap and continue providing that vital connectivity ” .
On some of the routes in question , which link especially isolated places , airlines need to be given the same protections as they would under Public Service Obligation rules in order to take them on with confidence .
Listen to our daily City View podcast as we chart the economic fallout and business impact of the coronavirus pandemic .
City A.M. has contacted the Department for Transport for comment .
Holland-Kaye also warned that if the government did not take steps @ @ @ @ @ @ @ risked losing an “ economic competition with our European friends ” : “ The French and the Germans see aviation as being fundamental to the success of the economy .
They were the first to step in and make sure their sectors would do well .
“ We should remember this is an economic competition between ourselves and our European friends .
They are looking to outmanoeuvre the UK ; they want to have international aviation diverted to Charles de Gaulle , and Frankfurt , not through Heathrow .
‘ If we don @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as the UK to protect the long term success of our aviation sector we will be giving up a huge national advantage to our rivals in France and Germany ” .
Read more : Ryanair set to cut up to 3,000 jobs due to coronavirus Air France has received a €7bn loan from the national government , while German flag carrier Lufthansa is currently in negotiations with authorities over a €9bn deal .
A government spokesperson said : “ We are continuing to work closely with the sector and are willing to consider @ @ @ @ @ @ @ long as all other government schemes have been explored and all commercial options exhausted , including raising capital from existing investors .
”

Aviation chiefs plead for more help from government amid coronavirus chaos
Representatives of the UK’s airports and airlines have said that the government must do more to support the aviation sector, warning that it “does not understand the strategic role the industry plays in the economy”.
Speaking to the transport select committee, Tim Aldersdale, the chief executive of Airlines UK, said that there were “lots of levers the government could pull that it is not pulling to kick start the sector”.
His words echoed those of Regional and Business Airports Group deputy chair Debra Bowen-Rees, who said that the industry was still awaiting “real responses to the big questions”.
She added that the government should match the Scottish administration’s decision to suspend business rates for airports, which make up a “very large proportion of their bills”.
Karen Dee, chair of Airport Operators Association, said that the aviation sector had been hit earlier and would suffer for longer than most other industries.
As a result, she said, the government should make sure it extends measures like the job retention scheme, with any immediate recovery likely to be “piecemeal”.
In addition, airline specific taxes like air passenger duty should be suspended, she said.
With the Department for Transport’s aviation restart and recovery unit set to meet for the first time, the three also called for “internationally agreed measures” on how mass aviation could begin again.
Regional airports ‘vital lifelines’ for economy
They also called on the government to commence its regional connectivity review, which was outlined after the collapse of Flybe in March.
John Holland-Kaye, chief executive of Heathrow, said that regional airlines and airports were “vital lifelines for the regional economy”.
The demise of Flybe, Bowen-Rees said, had left a “huge gap” in the market, but the government needs to create the conditions to allow airlines to move into it:
“What we need is for the environment to be created that will enable the airlines that we have currently operating in the UK to move into that gap and continue providing that vital connectivity”.
On some of the routes in question, which link especially isolated places, airlines need to be given the same protections as they would under Public Service Obligation rules in order to take them on with confidence.
Listen to our daily City View podcast as we chart the economic fallout and business impact of the coronavirus pandemic.
City A.M. has contacted the Department for Transport for comment.
UK risks giving up ‘huge national advantage’ to European rivals
Holland-Kaye also warned that if the government did not take steps to prop up the industry, it risked losing an “economic competition with our European friends”:
“The French and the Germans see aviation as being fundamental to the success of the economy. They were the first to step in and make sure their sectors would do well.
“We should remember this is an economic competition between ourselves and our European friends. They are looking to outmanoeuvre the UK; they want to have international aviation diverted to Charles de Gaulle, and Frankfurt, not through Heathrow.
‘If we don’t take the right steps here as the UK to protect the long term success of our aviation sector we will be giving up a huge national advantage to our rivals in France and Germany”.
Air France has received a €7bn loan from the national government, while German flag carrier Lufthansa is currently in negotiations with authorities over a €9bn deal.
A government spokesperson said: “We are continuing to work closely with the sector and are willing to consider the situation of individual firms, so long as all other government schemes have been explored and all commercial options exhausted, including raising capital from existing investors.”


cityam--2020-05-06--Business travel will still matter in a post-pandemic world

The outcome of the Government ’ s review of lockdown this week may provide a glimpse of the steps necessary for economic recovery .
Yet , the business community is fully aware that recovery will be a gradual process .
There will be no magic panacea .
Recovery requires long and careful planning and for many industries to work closely together .
I represent the business travel sector and believe it has its own critical role to play in our economic recovery .
In a typical year it contributes £220 billion to UK GDP from the 6.5m business journeys it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ airlines , train companies and accommodation providers , and an ‘ invisible ’ hand that helps turn our wheels of trade .
Read more : Virgin Atlantic join other airlines in redundancy moves Our sector has a duty to enable British business to travel , trade and stimulate the UK economy .
The Business Travel Association ( BTA ) recognises the many and complex challenges ahead in the fight against Covid-19 , but firmly believes five key steps are necessary to get the business world travelling again : Timeframe – Economies across the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of an increase in demand for travel .
Businesses are watching for borders , and the skies and rail routes between them , to open .
In many countries , including the UK , there is indefinite advice against “ all but essential ” travel .
No-one knows when travel can begin again .
This missing date means consumers and businesses can not be confident about future journeys .
We need to move from a restriction of “ All but essential ” to “ Essential business travel permitted ” .
International co-operation and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ what behaviours will be expected of future business and leisure travellers .
Inconsistencies or contradictory advice will cause chaos .
They will delay the resumption of recovery and block many needed business trips .
For example , a 14-day quarantine required at both or even one end of a journey is a non-starter for global business executives .
Consequently , we , the Business Travel Association ( BTA ) , are arguing for a set of globally consistent guidelines on social distancing , the use of masks and other hygiene measures .
Failure @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Protected travellers – Businesses are fully aware of the importance of face-to-face interactions in striking new deals , establishing partnerships and securing new business .
Many will have trips planned and will be increasingly frustrated they can not travel .
Yet , even when we get the green light from Governments and travel providers , there is still another important need – making sure employees are safe .
This requires insurance to cover employees when they travel and , in case of disruption or infection , that businesses ’ actions won ’ t @ @ @ @ @ @ @ market needs to have these new policies readily and easily available .
Safe services – Corporate travel managers , who are often intimately involved in making arrangements , will have enhanced responsibilities in the post-Covid world .
More than ever , they will need to ensure that all necessary and possible precautions have been taken to limit their colleagues ’ exposure to Covid-19 .
This means airlines , airports , train companies , car rental firms , hotels and other accommodation providers will need to demonstrate beyond reasonable doubt the steps they are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Such assurances could be overseen by travel associations such as the BTA and others across the globe with a recognisable marque provided to those who meet the criteria .
Such certification could be visible at relevant locations and on company websites .
Competitive pricing : Economies are being squeezed to levels not seen since or even during the Second World War .
Companies are tight on cash , under pressure to break even , struggling to limit redundancies and capping dividends .
Hence , securing travel budgets for the latter half of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is not going to be easy .
Consequently , the business travel supply chain ( e.g .
airlines , trains , car hire , accommodation ) will need to ensure they remain highly competitive on pricing .
Achieving this requires government intervention and financial commitment today – so we keep struggling businesses afloat – both in the business travel sector and amongst those who buy from it .
The BTA ’ s five steps are urgent , important and ambitious .
To achieve them , there is a need for effective cooperation and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Governments .
By working steadfastly together , the BTA and many allied industries can help get British businesses on the flight to recovery .

Business travel will still matter in a post-pandemic world
The outcome of the Government’s review of lockdown this week may provide a glimpse of the steps necessary for economic recovery. Yet, the business community is fully aware that recovery will be a gradual process. There will be no magic panacea. Recovery requires long and careful planning and for many industries to work closely together.
I represent the business travel sector and believe it has its own critical role to play in our economic recovery. In a typical year it contributes £220 billion to UK GDP from the 6.5m business journeys it arranges. It is a lifeblood to airlines, train companies and accommodation providers, and an ‘invisible’ hand that helps turn our wheels of trade.
Read more: Virgin Atlantic join other airlines in redundancy moves
Our sector has a duty to enable British business to travel, trade and stimulate the UK economy. The Business Travel Association (BTA) recognises the many and complex challenges ahead in the fight against Covid-19, but firmly believes five key steps are necessary to get the business world travelling again:
Timeframe – Economies across the world are waiting for the first signs of an increase in demand for travel. Businesses are watching for borders, and the skies and rail routes between them, to open. In many countries, including the UK, there is indefinite advice against “all but essential” travel. No-one knows when travel can begin again. This missing date means consumers and businesses cannot be confident about future journeys. We need to move from a restriction of “All but essential” to “Essential business travel permitted”.
International co-operation and clarity – We need international coherence about what behaviours will be expected of future business and leisure travellers. Inconsistencies or contradictory advice will cause chaos. They will delay the resumption of recovery and block many needed business trips. For example, a 14-day quarantine required at both or even one end of a journey is a non-starter for global business executives. Consequently, we, the Business Travel Association (BTA), are arguing for a set of globally consistent guidelines on social distancing, the use of masks and other hygiene measures. Failure to adhere must result in penalties.
Protected travellers – Businesses are fully aware of the importance of face-to-face interactions in striking new deals, establishing partnerships and securing new business. Many will have trips planned and will be increasingly frustrated they cannot travel. Yet, even when we get the green light from Governments and travel providers, there is still another important need – making sure employees are safe. This requires insurance to cover employees when they travel and, in case of disruption or infection, that businesses’ actions won’t cause employee concern or dissent. The market needs to have these new policies readily and easily available.
Safe services – Corporate travel managers, who are often intimately involved in making arrangements, will have enhanced responsibilities in the post-Covid world. More than ever, they will need to ensure that all necessary and possible precautions have been taken to limit their colleagues’ exposure to Covid-19. This means airlines, airports, train companies, car rental firms, hotels and other accommodation providers will need to demonstrate beyond reasonable doubt the steps they are taking to ensure cleanliness and social distancing. Such assurances could be overseen by travel associations such as the BTA and others across the globe with a recognisable marque provided to those who meet the criteria. Such certification could be visible at relevant locations and on company websites.
Competitive pricing: Economies are being squeezed to levels not seen since or even during the Second World War. Companies are tight on cash, under pressure to break even, struggling to limit redundancies and capping dividends. Hence, securing travel budgets for the latter half of this year, and for 2021, is not going to be easy. Consequently, the business travel supply chain (e.g. airlines, trains, car hire, accommodation) will need to ensure they remain highly competitive on pricing. Achieving this requires government intervention and financial commitment today – so we keep struggling businesses afloat – both in the business travel sector and amongst those who buy from it.
The BTA’s five steps are urgent, important and ambitious. To achieve them, there is a need for effective cooperation and collaboration, between industries, countries and Governments.
By working steadfastly together, the BTA and many allied industries can help get British businesses on the flight to recovery.


cityam--2020-05-06--M&A set for torrid second quarter as deal volumes are expected to contract further

UK M & A deal volumes are expected to contract further in the second quarter of 2020 , after falling to a 35-year low last month .
A Mark to Market survey of M & A professionals found that 95 per cent of respondents anticipate deal volumes in the UK to fall in the second quarter .
Of those , 56 per cent expect a decline of over 50 per cent .
Read more : UK M & A falls to lowest monthly total in almost 35 years Additionally , 62 per cent of respondents expect deal valuations to fall @ @ @ @ @ @ @ before recovering somewhat towards the end of the year .
It comes after one of the worst months for UK M & A .
Deal value involving a UK target totalled £409.1m from 35 deals in April – its lowest since September 1985 when nine deals worth £269.5m were struck , according to Refinitiv data .
It is not just prospective deals affected by coronavirus , but also those in the pipeline .
More than two thirds of respondents said they had worked on deals that have been dropped as a result of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ said deals they were working on had been delayed .
Listen to our daily City View podcast as we chart the economic fallout and business impact of the coronavirus pandemic .
Fundraising deal volumes expected to hold up better Fundraising deal volumes are expected to fare better than M & A volumes , with some signs of recovery in the second half of the year .
The vast majority of respondents said there ’ d be some decline volume in the second quarter .
Twenty seven per cent anticipate a decline between 25 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ : M & A crashes across the globe as coronavirus freezes economic activity Surprisingly , 20 per cent said there would be no change in volumes or an increase .
This may be because businesses that seek equity capital are loss-making and can not cancel fundraising plans without risking losing cash .
A quarter of respondents anticipate a drop in valuation between 25 and 50 per cent in the second quarter .
However , they are expected to hold better in fundraising situations , compared to M & A .
It is in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ term sheets that were signed before the outbreak of coronavirus .
Get the news as it happens by following City A.M. on Twitter .

M&A set for torrid second quarter as deal volumes are expected to contract further
The capital’s premier FTSE 100 index slid 2.21 per cent to 7,109.19 points, while the mid-cap FTSE 250 index, which is more aligned to the health of the UK economy, plunged 1.98 per cent to 22,230.23 points
UK M&A deal volumes are expected to contract further in the second quarter of 2020, after falling to a 35-year low last month.
A Mark to Market survey of M&A professionals found that 95 per cent of respondents anticipate deal volumes in the UK to fall in the second quarter. Of those, 56 per cent expect a decline of over 50 per cent.
Additionally, 62 per cent of respondents expect deal valuations to fall by up to 25 per cent, before recovering somewhat towards the end of the year.
It comes after one of the worst months for UK M&A. Deal value involving a UK target totalled £409.1m from 35 deals in April – its lowest since September 1985 when nine deals worth £269.5m were struck, according to Refinitiv data.
It is not just prospective deals affected by coronavirus, but also those in the pipeline. More than two thirds of respondents said they had worked on deals that have been dropped as a result of the pandemic. While 81 per cent said deals they were working on had been delayed.
Listen to our daily City View podcast as we chart the economic fallout and business impact of the coronavirus pandemic.
Fundraising deal volumes expected to hold up better
Fundraising deal volumes are expected to fare better than M&A volumes, with some signs of recovery in the second half of the year.
The vast majority of respondents said there’d be some decline volume in the second quarter. Twenty seven per cent anticipate a decline between 25 and 50 per cent.
Surprisingly, 20 per cent said there would be no change in volumes or an increase. This may be because businesses that seek equity capital are loss-making and cannot cancel fundraising plans without risking losing cash.
A quarter of respondents anticipate a drop in valuation between 25 and 50 per cent in the second quarter. However, they are expected to hold better in fundraising situations, compared to M&A. It is in part because venture capital firms are honouring term sheets that were signed before the outbreak of coronavirus.
Get the news as it happens by following City A.M. on Twitter.


cityam--2020-05-06--Sadiq Khan unveils plans to transform roads for walkers and cyclists post lockdown

London mayor Sadiq Khan has unveiled a new plan to transform the capital ’ s streets to accommodate a huge increase in walking and cycling once lockdown measures lift .
Under the “ Street Space ” initiative , pavements will be widened and extra cycle lanes put in to allow people to travel to work while maintaining social distancing .
Read more : Sadiq Khan : There will be no swift return to normality for TfL Writing in City A.M. , Khan said that the total number of passengers on the tube would have to be reduced by at least @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for commuters .
With buses also set to have their capacity reduced from 85 passengers to 15 , the plan will help enable millions of journeys to be made by other means every day .
However , some groups were sceptical as to whether such measures could realistically replace mass use of the tube and bus networks .
Under the plan , Transport for London will rapidly build a new cycle network with new routes along major thoroughfares such as Euston Road and Park Lane .
Pavements are set to be widened in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Earl ’ s Court , and Camden in the coming weeks .
Traffic will also be reduced in residential areas in order to create low-traffic neighbourhoods to encourage people to cycle and walk .
Listen to our daily City View podcast as we chart the economic fallout and business impact of the coronavirus pandemic .
The changes are designed to ease pressure on London ’ s transport network , with Khan stressing that everyone who can work from home should continue to do so after lockdown measures lift to prevent overcrowding .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ not to switch back to car use after coronavirus , which would lead to declining air quality and increased congestion across the capital .
Modelling by TfL has found that people could cycle as much as 10 times the number of kilometres a day , and walk five times as far , if demand returns post-lockdown .
Keith Prince , Conservative transport spokesman for the London Assembly , said that though cycling and walking would help , it is “ complete madness to think they can replace millions of journeys on London ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ told City A.M. : “ This just goes to show that the mayor is a zone one mayor , and hasn ’ t been thinking outside that area at all .
“ There is no way , no matter how wide you make pavements , how many cycling lanes you put in boroughs such as Havering and Redbridge , the majority of people are not going to be able to cycle from London to work ” .
Read more : Rory Stewart pulls out of London mayoral race Liberal Democrat mayoral candidate Siobhan @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will not be enough to prevent the transport network becoming overwhelmed ” .
Instead , Benita said , TfL should consider introducing early bird fares to encourage pre-peak travel , bringing in new orbital bus routes , and reintroducing the ULEZ zone and congestion charges , with exceptions for essential workers .

Sadiq Khan unveils plans to transform roads for walkers and cyclists post lockdown
London mayor Sadiq Khan has unveiled a new plan to transform the capital’s streets to accommodate a huge increase in walking and cycling once lockdown measures lift.
Under the “Street Space” initiative, pavements will be widened and extra cycle lanes put in to allow people to travel to work while maintaining social distancing.
Writing in City A.M., Khan said that the total number of passengers on the tube would have to be reduced by at least 80 per cent to ensure safe travel for commuters.
With buses also set to have their capacity reduced from 85 passengers to 15, the plan will help enable millions of journeys to be made by other means every day.
However, some groups were sceptical as to whether such measures could realistically replace mass use of the tube and bus networks.
Under the plan, Transport for London will rapidly build a new cycle network with new routes along major thoroughfares such as Euston Road and Park Lane.
Pavements are set to be widened in up to 20 locations, including Brixton, Earl’s Court, and Camden in the coming weeks.
Traffic will also be reduced in residential areas in order to create low-traffic neighbourhoods to encourage people to cycle and walk.
Listen to our daily City View podcast as we chart the economic fallout and business impact of the coronavirus pandemic.
The changes are designed to ease pressure on London’s transport network, with Khan stressing that everyone who can work from home should continue to do so after lockdown measures lift to prevent overcrowding.
The measures are designed to encourage people not to switch back to car use after coronavirus, which would lead to declining air quality and increased congestion across the capital.
Modelling by TfL has found that people could cycle as much as 10 times the number of kilometres a day, and walk five times as far, if demand returns post-lockdown.
Keith Prince, Conservative transport spokesman for the London Assembly, said that though cycling and walking would help, it is “complete madness to think they can replace millions of journeys on London’s Tube and buses”.
He told City A.M.: “This just goes to show that the mayor is a zone one mayor, and hasn’t been thinking outside that area at all.
“There is no way, no matter how wide you make pavements, how many cycling lanes you put in boroughs such as Havering and Redbridge, the majority of people are not going to be able to cycle from London to work”.
Liberal Democrat mayoral candidate Siobhan Benita said active travel solutions alone “will not be enough to prevent the transport network becoming overwhelmed”.
Instead, Benita said, TfL should consider introducing early bird fares to encourage pre-peak travel, bringing in new orbital bus routes, and reintroducing the ULEZ zone and congestion charges, with exceptions for essential workers.


cityam--2020-05-06--Third of UK restaurant and bar bosses expect to permanently close sites due to coronavirus

Hundreds of UK restaurants , pubs and bars are expected to permanently close due to the coronavirus crisis , according to the latest survey of industry leaders .
A third of hospitality executives said they will close some sites due to the pandemic , with just 36 per cent saying they will eventually reopen all of their sites for trading .
Another third were yet to decide on closures .
Read more : Robot waiters , half the tables , and crossed fingers : How restaurants will reopen after UK lockdown ends Most respondents to a survey by consultancy firm @ @ @ @ @ @ @ expected the overall market to shrink , with between 70 per cent to 80 per cent of sites across the industry continuing to trade after the lockdown .
In total , 81 per cent of operators have started recovery planning for the lockdown exit period .
However 13 per cent of restaurants are waiting for more information and five per cent said they did not have capacity to plan .
The research found that 96 per cent believed there will be a phased reopening of the hospitality industry , and 62 per cent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ stages .
“ The size and shape of the eating and drinking out market is projected to look very different post-lockdown , ” said CGA food and retail director Karl Chessell .
“ The offer will inevitably change as leaders have to change their operating model to thrive once they open their doors again.
” James England , senior vice president at Fourth added : “ Social distancing and the fallout from the pandemic will demand that businesses take a fresh look at their operating models and , of course , labour productivity @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Restaurant bosses to beg ministers to extend UK coronavirus lockdown “ This might see the rise of the ‘ host ’ role , in order to oversee social distancing measures , along with likely additional bussing and cleaning activities and procedures .
“ Ultimately , hospitality ’ s post-Covid-19 complexion will look fundamentally different to the start of 2020 , but we are a resilient industry that will evolve , adapt , innovate and overcome the challenges presented .
”

Third of UK restaurant and bar bosses expect to permanently close sites due to coronavirus
Hundreds of UK restaurants, pubs and bars are expected to permanently close due to the coronavirus crisis, according to the latest survey of industry leaders.
A third of hospitality executives said they will close some sites due to the pandemic, with just 36 per cent saying they will eventually reopen all of their sites for trading. Another third were yet to decide on closures.
Most respondents to a survey by consultancy firm CGA and tech company Fourth said they expected the overall market to shrink, with between 70 per cent to 80 per cent of sites across the industry continuing to trade after the lockdown.
In total, 81 per cent of operators have started recovery planning for the lockdown exit period. However 13 per cent of restaurants are waiting for more information and five per cent said they did not have capacity to plan.
The research found that 96 per cent believed there will be a phased reopening of the hospitality industry, and 62 per cent are planning to reopen their estates in stages.
“The size and shape of the eating and drinking out market is projected to look very different post-lockdown,” said CGA food and retail director Karl Chessell.
“The offer will inevitably change as leaders have to change their operating model to thrive once they open their doors again.”
James England, senior vice president at Fourth added: “Social distancing and the fallout from the pandemic will demand that businesses take a fresh look at their operating models and, of course, labour productivity and increased automation.
“This might see the rise of the ‘host’ role, in order to oversee social distancing measures, along with likely additional bussing and cleaning activities and procedures.
“Ultimately, hospitality’s post-Covid-19 complexion will look fundamentally different to the start of 2020, but we are a resilient industry that will evolve, adapt, innovate and overcome the challenges presented.”


cityam--2020-05-06--Uber to cut 3,700 employees as ride-hailing demand slumps due to coronavirus

Uber will cut 3,700 employees and its chief executive will forgo his salary for the rest of the year as demand for ride-hailing services collapses due to the coronavirus outbreak .
The company said the job losses will include roles in its customer support and recruitment teams , with $ 20m in costs expected to be incurred as a result .
The San Francisco based firm revealed the cuts in a filing to the US Securities and Exchange Commission ( SEC ) .
Along with rival firm Lyft , Uber has already withdrawn its guidance for the year due to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ complied with global government requests to remain at home .
Uber , which operates in more countries than Lyft , said that it could claw back some revenues from its food delivery business Uber Eats .
Listen to our daily City View podcast as we chart the economic fallout and business impact of the coronavirus pandemic .
The announcement comes a day ahead of Uber ’ s first quarter results , which analysts are awaiting with some interest .
In April the firm said that the pandemic made it impossible to predict future @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the firm had expected to book adjusted net revenue of up to $ 17bn and an adjusted loss of between $ 1.45bn and $ 1.25bn .
Read more : Uber to provide free journeys and meals for NHS staff Chief exectuive Dara Khosrowshahi has already assured analysts that even in an extreme scenario where ride revenue declines by 80 per cent for the rest of the year , Uber will still have $ 4bn of unrestricted cash .
Shares in the ride-hailing firm fell 3.5 per cent as markets opened in the US @

Uber to cut 3,700 employees as ride-hailing demand slumps due to coronavirus
Uber will cut 3,700 employees and its chief executive will forgo his salary for the rest of the year as demand for ride-hailing services collapses due to the coronavirus outbreak.
The company said the job losses will include roles in its customer support and recruitment teams, with $20m in costs expected to be incurred as a result.
The San Francisco based firm revealed the cuts in a filing to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
Along with rival firm Lyft, Uber has already withdrawn its guidance for the year due to the fall in demand as people have complied with global government requests to remain at home.
Uber, which operates in more countries than Lyft, said that it could claw back some revenues from its food delivery business Uber Eats.
Listen to our daily City View podcast as we chart the economic fallout and business impact of the coronavirus pandemic.
The announcement comes a day ahead of Uber’s first quarter results, which analysts are awaiting with some interest.
In April the firm said that the pandemic made it impossible to predict future financial results.
For the year, the firm had expected to book adjusted net revenue of up to $17bn and an adjusted loss of between $1.45bn and $1.25bn.
Chief exectuive Dara Khosrowshahi has already assured analysts that even in an extreme scenario where ride revenue declines by 80 per cent for the rest of the year, Uber will still have $4bn of unrestricted cash.
Shares in the ride-hailing firm fell 3.5 per cent as markets opened in the US.


cityam--2020-05-07--Holiday Inn owner IHG's occupancy levels dive to record lows during coronavirus pandemic

Holiday Inn owner Intercontinental Hotels Group ( IHG ) said occupancy levels dropped to historic lows in March and April due to coronavirus lockdowns around the world .
The hotel group said global revenue per available room plunged 25 per cent in the first quarter , with a 55 per cent drop in March .
It is forecast to fall even further , with IHG expecting to report an 80 per cent dive in April .
At the end of last month , 15 per cent of IHG ’ s estate was closed due to the pandemic .
The company @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the Middle East and Africa had temporarily shut .
In the Americas , 10 per cent of IHG ’ s hotels were closed , and two per cent remain shut in Greater China .
IHG chief executive Keith Barr said : “ Covid-19 represents the most significant challenge both IHG and our industry have ever faced .
“ We are responding on every front and taking decisive action to the benefit of all our stakeholders .
“ Our top priority remains to support our guests , colleagues and hotel owners through this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ term and positioning the business for recovery.
” Barr added : “ We have been working closely with our owners to help keep hotels open , including advising on adjusting operations , providing fee relief and payment flexibility , and collaborating to secure broader government support for the industry.
” Last month IHG confirmed it had secured a £600m loan under the government ’ s coronavirus financial support scheme .
It also amended its credit facility to include a waiver of existing covenants until the end of next year .

Holiday Inn owner IHG’s occupancy levels dive to record lows during coronavirus pandemic
Holiday Inn owner Intercontinental Hotels Group (IHG) said occupancy levels dropped to historic lows in March and April due to coronavirus lockdowns around the world.
The hotel group said global revenue per available room plunged 25 per cent in the first quarter, with a 55 per cent drop in March.
It is forecast to fall even further, with IHG expecting to report an 80 per cent dive in April.
At the end of last month, 15 per cent of IHG’s estate was closed due to the pandemic. The company said half of its sites in Europe, the Middle East and Africa had temporarily shut.
In the Americas, 10 per cent of IHG’s hotels were closed, and two per cent remain shut in Greater China.
IHG chief executive Keith Barr said: “Covid-19 represents the most significant challenge both IHG and our industry have ever faced.
“We are responding on every front and taking decisive action to the benefit of all our stakeholders.
“Our top priority remains to support our guests, colleagues and hotel owners through this crisis, whilst protecting for the long term and positioning the business for recovery.”
Barr added: “We have been working closely with our owners to help keep hotels open, including advising on adjusting operations, providing fee relief and payment flexibility, and collaborating to secure broader government support for the industry.”
Last month IHG confirmed it had secured a £600m loan under the government’s coronavirus financial support scheme.
It also amended its credit facility to include a waiver of existing covenants until the end of next year.


cityam--2020-05-07--UK economy: Is the Bank of England’s 2021 rebound scenario too optimistic?

The Bank of England today said the UK economy could suffer its worst economic crash in 300 years this year as the coronavirus lockdown batters the economy .
Yet it said it is likely to bounce back relatively quickly .
Despite the dire report it stopped short of launching more bond-buying or “ quantitative easing ” ( QE ) and left interest rates on hold .
Read more : Bank of England : UK economy could suffer biggest crash in 300 years Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey said that the economic slump will be dramatic .
Yet he said @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ much more rapidly than the pull back from the global financial crisis ” .
Yet many economists have questioned whether the Bank has been too optimistic in its “ illustrative scenario ” .
They point to the threat of a second wave of infections and “ scarring ” from unemployment .
Analysts and traders also said that the Bank of England is likely to launch more QE in the coming months amid falling inflation and tumbling demand .
Has the Bank been too optimistic about the UK economy ?
The Bank ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ economy shrinking by 14 per cent in 2020 but rebounding sharply in 2021 by 15 per cent .
It says the UK economy is likely to be back to its pre-coronavirus size by the middle of next year .
Seema Shah , chief strategist at Principal Global Investors , said this perspective “ is surprisingly upbeat ” .
Many analysts have said similar things .
The Bank of England said little about the dangers of a second wave of coronavirus infections .
But it cautioned that growth “ will depend critically on the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s chief economist Yael Selfin said that some form of social distancing measures are likely to remain in place until a vaccine or effective treatment is developed .
“ That means recovery is unlikely to start in earnest before sometime next year.
” She added that Brexit poses a risk to the UK economy .
The Bank assumed that Britain will secure a trade deal with the EU by the end of the year .
Yet Selfin said the probability of a “ smooth transition ” is relatively small , “ adding @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Andrew Goodwin , chief economist at consultancy Oxford Economics , said he agreed with the Bank ’ s scenario of a relatively quick rebound .
Goodwin said there is a lot of pent-up demand in the economy .
He said businesses will be keen to get going again once lockdown measures are lifted .
Listen to our daily City View podcast as we chart the economic fallout and business impact of the coronavirus pandemic .
Yet Peter Dixon , senior economist at Commerzbank , pointed to previous experiences .
“ Following the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ years , it has taken an average of four years for output to reach pre-recession levels , ” he said .
“ This is not to say that the BoE will necessarily be proved wrong but it does suggest that risks to growth lie to the downside.
” Will the Bank of England launch more QE ?
The Bank has injected an unprecedented amount of stimulus into the UK economy in recent months .
In March , it ramped up its QE programme – under which it creates money to buy bonds and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Threadneedle Street today stopped short of offering more bond-buying .
Yet Bailey said the Bank is ready “ to take action should we need to do so ” .
The Bank of England ’ s monetary policy committee ( MPC ) was divided on the issue , however .
The minutes showed two members voted for £100bn more QE .
Oliver Blackbourn , multi-asset portfolio manager at Janus Henderson Investors , said this indicated “ a continued dovish bias from certain voting members ” .
He added that the Bank is due to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ within months ” .
Read more : Banks blasted over ‘ disappointingly slow ’ pace of lending as coronavirus loans hit £5.5bn “ Therefore , expectations will be high for an increase in the purchase target at the next meeting in mid-June.
” PwC senior economist Alex Tuckett said that the Bank ’ s drastic scenario showed that the UK economy will need more help .
“ With such an impact , and so much uncertainty , it is highly likely that the MPC will move to provide further stimulus over the coming @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ?
Markets have taken to shrugging off dire economic forecasts and choosing to instead focus on the future .
It was no different today , with the FTSE 100 stock index up 0.9 per cent just after midday at 5,905 points .
The FTSE 250 of smaller companies rose 1.2 per cent .
Chris Beauchamp , chief market analyst at trading platform IG , said : “ Stock markets have continued to eke out small gains so far today , continuing the generally optimistic theme of the week for equities.
” Read more @ @ @ @ @ @ @ England ’ s dire economic warning The pound was 0.1 per cent higher against the dollar at $ 1.235 .
Janus Henderson ’ s Blackbourn said : “ The lack of additional easing was good for sterling in the moments after the announcement.
” He added : “ With the Brexit trade talks back under way and the first deadline for an extension looming in June , sterling could use a strong bounce in growth , like the 15 per cent figure the Bank outlines for 2021 .
”

UK economy: Is the Bank of England’s 2021 rebound scenario too optimistic?
The Bank of England has said the UK economy is likely to bounce back strongly in 2021
The Bank of England today said the UK economy could suffer its worst economic crash in 300 years this year as the coronavirus lockdown batters the economy. Yet it said it is likely to bounce back relatively quickly.
Despite the dire report it stopped short of launching more bond-buying or “quantitative easing” (QE) and left interest rates on hold.
Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey said that the economic slump will be dramatic. Yet he said the UK economy is likely to rebound “much more rapidly than the pull back from the global financial crisis”.
Yet many economists have questioned whether the Bank has been too optimistic in its “illustrative scenario”. They point to the threat of a second wave of infections and “scarring” from unemployment.
Analysts and traders also said that the Bank of England is likely to launch more QE in the coming months amid falling inflation and tumbling demand.
Has the Bank been too optimistic about the UK economy?
The Bank’s “scenario” has the UK economy shrinking by 14 per cent in 2020 but rebounding sharply in 2021 by 15 per cent. It says the UK economy is likely to be back to its pre-coronavirus size by the middle of next year.
Seema Shah, chief strategist at Principal Global Investors, said this perspective “is surprisingly upbeat”. Many analysts have said similar things.
The Bank of England said little about the dangers of a second wave of coronavirus infections. But it cautioned that growth “will depend critically on the evolution of the pandemic”.
KPMG’s chief economist Yael Selfin said that some form of social distancing measures are likely to remain in place until a vaccine or effective treatment is developed. “That means recovery is unlikely to start in earnest before sometime next year.”
She added that Brexit poses a risk to the UK economy. The Bank assumed that Britain will secure a trade deal with the EU by the end of the year. Yet Selfin said the probability of a “smooth transition” is relatively small, “adding further uncertainty to businesses”.
However, Andrew Goodwin, chief economist at consultancy Oxford Economics, said he agreed with the Bank’s scenario of a relatively quick rebound.
Goodwin said there is a lot of pent-up demand in the economy. He said businesses will be keen to get going again once lockdown measures are lifted.
Listen to our daily City View podcast as we chart the economic fallout and business impact of the coronavirus pandemic.
Yet Peter Dixon, senior economist at Commerzbank, pointed to previous experiences. “Following the three big recessions of the past 40 years, it has taken an average of four years for output to reach pre-recession levels,” he said.
“This is not to say that the BoE will necessarily be proved wrong but it does suggest that risks to growth lie to the downside.”
Will the Bank of England launch more QE?
The Bank has injected an unprecedented amount of stimulus into the UK economy in recent months. In March, it ramped up its QE programme – under which it creates money to buy bonds and lower lending costs – by £200bn.
Threadneedle Street today stopped short of offering more bond-buying. Yet Bailey said the Bank is ready “to take action should we need to do so”.
The Bank of England’s monetary policy committee (MPC) was divided on the issue, however. The minutes showed two members voted for £100bn more QE.
Oliver Blackbourn, multi-asset portfolio manager at Janus Henderson Investors, said this indicated “a continued dovish bias from certain voting members”. He added that the Bank is due to complete the current round of purchases “within months”.
“Therefore, expectations will be high for an increase in the purchase target at the next meeting in mid-June.”
PwC senior economist Alex Tuckett said that the Bank’s drastic scenario showed that the UK economy will need more help. “With such an impact, and so much uncertainty, it is highly likely that the MPC will move to provide further stimulus over the coming months.”
How did the markets react?
Markets have taken to shrugging off dire economic forecasts and choosing to instead focus on the future. It was no different today, with the FTSE 100 stock index up 0.9 per cent just after midday at 5,905 points. The FTSE 250 of smaller companies rose 1.2 per cent.
Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at trading platform IG, said: “Stock markets have continued to eke out small gains so far today, continuing the generally optimistic theme of the week for equities.”
The pound was 0.1 per cent higher against the dollar at $1.235. Janus Henderson’s Blackbourn said: “The lack of additional easing was good for sterling in the moments after the announcement.”
He added: “With the Brexit trade talks back under way and the first deadline for an extension looming in June, sterling could use a strong bounce in growth, like the 15 per cent figure the Bank outlines for 2021.”