sluggerotoole--2020-12-31--The public sector is vital to N Ireland, but it needs new blood and added vibrancy…

I have a strange feeling as I come to the end of 40 years working in the public sector and the uncertainty that a pension and life without institutionalised working will bring .
Although being in the public sector , my pension could be much worse and will it be index-linked .
This will also prove my dear mother right 40 years ago in telling me that getting a job in the Civil Service will set me up for a great pension .
As an 18-year-old , I had no thoughts of pensions , job security or benevolent funds .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ to work hard , had flexible working patterns and when I went home could leave it all behind .
I would go out for a few pints with my mates and save to buy a car , but only after my dear mother got her 50 % from my wage packet .
I have been watching the McGuigan/Frampton court battle to see if I have a good case for compensation after all these years ; however , I would prefer to take on Frampton than my mother in fairness .
Through the 40 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the public sector .
It has had its ups and downs .
In the 1980s , we appeared to be very much in the front line of every direct rule initiative , some positive and some that seemed to put us in the legitimate target grouping .
It was no fluke that significant Civil Service offices were relocated to Belfast and Derry City Centres .
The main reason was economic but some of us also suspected a second motive to help prevent bombings .
It didn ’ t work of course and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in pubs during bomb scares than was good for us .
I also recall we always had something to celebrate in work , mostly births and marriages , sometimes in that order , 21st birthday parties etc.
, we had a young and very vibrant workforce .
In the 1990s , I recall continually bumping into friends who had left school with 2 CSEs and were earning twice as much money as I was making , and quite a few claiming unemployment benefits as well .
By that stage , I was married @ @ @ @ @ @ @ massive mortgage and the public sector trap had been sprung .
The naughties brought their issues and challenges and the outworkings from the Cameron/ Osbourne economic policies would see the public sector change forever .
Seeing numbers employed reduced and recruitment non-existent .
The Public Sector is not only the largest employer in Northern Ireland , but also the biggest individual sector .
The last time I checked the NICS had no one under the age of 25 employed by them .
The work parties we now have , albeit over Zoom , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ young , vibrant Civil Service , we are older , we carry the war wounds , and we are fully institutionalised .
To say we are risk-averse would be an understatement , We are largely there to implement the policies and wishes of local politicians , taking forward vanity projects and us having to take the blame when they go wrong .
The Voluntary Exit Scheme , as it was introduced by the NI Executive , was a big nail in the coffin of the public sector .
It was not introduced under @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pure cost savings and those who were cheapest were let go .
The lasting impact is that it was not the person made redundant , it was their post and the funding for that post , so we could not recruit or backfill positions .
In some branches , this saw a reduction of 30 % in staffing numbers .
There has been a recent focus on NICS sick and attendance records .
One of the key benefits of working in the public sector is paid sick leave .
There is no doubt @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the processes in place make it difficult for managers to tackle this without ending up at an industrial tribunal .
However , the system is now totally unbalanced because of the profile of the workforce .
The young , vibrant workforce is now in their 50s , and we are all at the age when we are more susceptible to ill health .
This is what is increasing the perceived levels of sickness .
Illnesses often require more medical interventions and take longer to recover .
The policy of 6 mths full pay @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are paid .
There is also the factor that the public sector has always employed a large percentage of females in its workforce , and rightly so .
The Irish North and South are a caring bunch .
However , most of these caring responsibilities fall to the women in our society .
Whether it is looking after children who need care or elderly who need care , it mostly falls to the females of the family to oblige and care for elderly relatives .
If that female member of the family works @ @ @ @ @ @ @ more and more likely to be the case .
“ Sure our Jinny can look after granny when she gets out of hospital , she can go sick and will get paid ” .
At present , I have two staff out sick because they have to care for elderly relatives .
While at face value , this is a public sector issue , in my view it is not , it is a societal issue .
I am sure more people reading this have experienced the “ female carer ” scenario .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ , without it they would be inundated , it is one that hospitals recognise as again without this care they would have bed blockers across the system .
It is also one that most families recognise .
This is more often than not offset by people such as myself who have rarely taken more than a couple of day ’ s sickness over a lifetime of service , so it is swings and roundabouts .
The public sector is vital to N Ireland , but it needs new blood , new and added @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sick leave does need to be addressed .
However , this needs to be done in an understanding and sympathetic way as caring should be nourished and supported , addressed by society and not just the public sector .
So with a few days to go , none of the above will be my problem to address as a manager .
I see retirement as an opportunity ; perhaps my mother can offer advice for my next 40 years .
Photo by mwitt1337 is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA

I have a strange feeling as I come to the end of 40 years working in the public sector and the uncertainty that a pension and life without institutionalised working will bring. Although being in the public sector, my pension could be much worse and will it be index-linked.
This will also prove my dear mother right 40 years ago in telling me that getting a job in the Civil Service will set me up for a great pension. As an 18-year-old, I had no thoughts of pensions, job security or benevolent funds. I got a job which allowed me to work hard, had flexible working patterns and when I went home could leave it all behind. I would go out for a few pints with my mates and save to buy a car, but only after my dear mother got her 50% from my wage packet. I have been watching the McGuigan/Frampton court battle to see if I have a good case for compensation after all these years; however, I would prefer to take on Frampton than my mother in fairness.
Through the 40 years, I have noticed great change in the public sector. It has had its ups and downs. In the 1980s, we appeared to be very much in the front line of every direct rule initiative, some positive and some that seemed to put us in the legitimate target grouping. It was no fluke that significant Civil Service offices were relocated to Belfast and Derry City Centres. The main reason was economic but some of us also suspected a second motive to help prevent bombings. It didn’t work of course and resulted in civil servants spending more time in pubs during bomb scares than was good for us. I also recall we always had something to celebrate in work, mostly births and marriages, sometimes in that order, 21st birthday parties etc., we had a young and very vibrant workforce.
In the 1990s, I recall continually bumping into friends who had left school with 2 CSEs and were earning twice as much money as I was making, and quite a few claiming unemployment benefits as well. By that stage, I was married, had a few kids, a massive mortgage and the public sector trap had been sprung.
The naughties brought their issues and challenges and the outworkings from the Cameron/ Osbourne economic policies would see the public sector change forever. Seeing numbers employed reduced and recruitment non-existent.
The Public Sector is not only the largest employer in Northern Ireland, but also the biggest individual sector. The last time I checked the NICS had no one under the age of 25 employed by them. The work parties we now have, albeit over Zoom, are retirement parties. Gone is the young, vibrant Civil Service, we are older, we carry the war wounds, and we are fully institutionalised. To say we are risk-averse would be an understatement, We are largely there to implement the policies and wishes of local politicians, taking forward vanity projects and us having to take the blame when they go wrong.
The Voluntary Exit Scheme, as it was introduced by the NI Executive, was a big nail in the coffin of the public sector. It was not introduced under any recognised business principles, it was pure cost savings and those who were cheapest were let go. The lasting impact is that it was not the person made redundant, it was their post and the funding for that post, so we could not recruit or backfill positions. In some branches, this saw a reduction of 30% in staffing numbers.
There has been a recent focus on NICS sick and attendance records. One of the key benefits of working in the public sector is paid sick leave. There is no doubt that a minority abuse this, and the processes in place make it difficult for managers to tackle this without ending up at an industrial tribunal. However, the system is now totally unbalanced because of the profile of the workforce. The young, vibrant workforce is now in their 50s, and we are all at the age when we are more susceptible to ill health. This is what is increasing the perceived levels of sickness. Illnesses often require more medical interventions and take longer to recover. The policy of 6 mths full pay is what ensures mortgages and other bills are paid.
There is also the factor that the public sector has always employed a large percentage of females in its workforce, and rightly so. The Irish North and South are a caring bunch. However, most of these caring responsibilities fall to the women in our society. Whether it is looking after children who need care or elderly who need care, it mostly falls to the females of the family to oblige and care for elderly relatives. If that female member of the family works in the public sector, this is more and more likely to be the case. “Sure our Jinny can look after granny when she gets out of hospital, she can go sick and will get paid”. At present, I have two staff out sick because they have to care for elderly relatives. While at face value, this is a public sector issue, in my view it is not, it is a societal issue. I am sure more people reading this have experienced the “female carer” scenario. It is one that social services recognise, without it they would be inundated, it is one that hospitals recognise as again without this care they would have bed blockers across the system. It is also one that most families recognise.
This is more often than not offset by people such as myself who have rarely taken more than a couple of day’s sickness over a lifetime of service, so it is swings and roundabouts.
The public sector is vital to N Ireland, but it needs new blood, new and added vibrancy. The issue of carers and sick leave does need to be addressed. However, this needs to be done in an understanding and sympathetic way as caring should be nourished and supported, addressed by society and not just the public sector.
So with a few days to go, none of the above will be my problem to address as a manager. I see retirement as an opportunity; perhaps my mother can offer advice for my next 40 years.
Photo by mwitt1337 is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA


sluggerotoole--2020-12-31--An A-Z of whats to come in 2021

An A-Z of whats to come in 2021

After 16 years in office Angela Merkel stands down as German Chancellor when her term ends in September 2021 .
The pandemic has certainly helped the CDU/CSU bounce back in German opinion polls .
However the CDU has yet to decide who its leader will be going into the federal election and there is no great enthusiasm for the three candidates that have thrown their hats in the ring .
The poll should see the SPD relegated to third place in German politics with the Greens consistently being in second or on occasion first place in opinion polls increasing the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the end of the year .
The CDU are in a comfortable position at present but with the Chancellor standing down after 16 years it will be interesting to see if the CDU/CSU union ’ s popularity can remain where its currently at post-Merkel .
The Irish-American political veteran from Pennsylvania will become the 46th President of the United States in January at an inauguration that will have to be low-key by necessity .
His first challenge are the Senate elections in Georgia which will dictate whether the Democrats will be able to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will be critical in terms of the delivery of Biden ’ s agenda .
Biden ’ s victory will mark a u-turn in the US government policy towards the climate crisis .
He will sign the US up to the Paris Agreement again and put the country on a pathway towards net zero A better US-Ireland relationship is expected to emerge in 2021 .
The special US-UK relationship that we have seen in the past looks set to change radically .
Not only because of the differences between Biden and Johnson over Brexit @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will not see the UK as being as powerful as they were in the past .
Brussels , Paris and Berlin will more likely be the corridors of power that the US will pay attention to , not London .
Johnson has a lot of ground to make up with Biden after betting so heavily on Trump winning a second term .
Also bookies are giving 11/8 odds on Biden making Ireland his first foreign visit in 2021 .
C is for Census ‘ Census Day ’ will be on 21st March 2021 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on religious background when the results are eventually published but new questions will be included for the first time on sexual orientation and renewable energy systems .
This will be a digital first census which will make it easier for people to fill in and send back .
The Irish government has postponed its census in the south for a year until 2022 .
Which along with Glasgow and London is planning to host a number of games at ‘ Euro 2020 ’ which has been rescheduled to take place in June-July 2021 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the Irish Sea made it through to the Finals unfortunately but Scotland v England at Wembley will be one to watch on 18th June .
With a huge array of new models coming onto the market next year 2021 could be the ‘ tipping point ’ year for electric vehicles .
In the next 12 months global electric vehicle sales are expected to grow 50 % or more compared to 2-5 % for internal combustion engine vehicles .
Tesla shares have surged in 2020 and the company are expanding into new markets @ @ @ @ @ @ @ With bans on new internal combustion engine ( ICE ) cars due in 2030 for Ireland and Britain expect more models to come on the market from Volkswagen and others .
Even Apple is hoping to bring out an electric car by 2024 .
Micheál Martin is now 6 months into his premiership as Taoiseach but 2020 was bittersweet for the party .
Of course Fianna Fáil did win the most seats in the election and Martin became the first party Taoiseach in 9 years .
However Sinn Féin winning the popular vote @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Fine Gael on Mary-Lou ’ s McDonald ’ s party has helped to create an environment where many see Fine Gael and Sinn Féin as natural political opposites .
This all feeds in to some of the tensions in the party about what they stand for and whether Martin should lead them into the future .
Potential successors are already beginning to circle .
2021 will be a critical year for Fianna Fáil and there may be trouble ahead if Martin can not put wind back into the sails of the party and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and Fine Gael in the opinion polls .
The UN ’ s COP 26 ( Climate Change Conference ) takes place in Glasgow in November and is being mooted as the most significant climate conference since Paris in 2015 when a target was set to limit global warming by 1.5 degrees .
Former US Vice-President Al Gore said The elections to the Scottish Parliament in May will be treated as a de facto referendum by the SNP and First Minister Nicola Sturgeon who will have a second Indy referendum at the heart of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Scottish independence has been consistently ahead of that for maintaining the union for the past 7 months .
Sturgeon will be keen to seize on that momentum in favour of ‘ Yes ’ in the midst of a Brexit opposed by the majority of Scottish voters and her positive and consistent performance in terms of the handling of the pandemic .
The question is how can a referendum be held without the consent of Boris Johnson and Westminster ?
Can the Scottish Parliament paddle their own canoe and pass legislation to hold an @ @ @ @ @ @ @ never been tested in court so this remains unclear .
Unionist parties may also decide to boycott any such poll .
However Johnson will be acutely aware that London blocking decisions made by the Scottish Parliament could actually lead to a reaction that actually boosts support for independence .
For Sturgeon timing is crucial .
Many Indy activists want a referendum held in the immediate aftermath of the elections when full details of the Brexit deal and its implications are clear and if mass unemployment locks into the economy popular discontent in Scotland @ @ @ @ @ @ @ However Sturgeon might not want to hold one right away but has said that she would campaign to hold a vote “ in the early part of the new parliament ” .
to use at EU/EEA lanes and e-gates at airports in 2021 .
Having one also means keeping your right to freedom of movement within the EU and the right to work and study in any EU country without a visa and with no time limit .
The delayed Olympic and Paralympic Games kick off in Tokyo in July .
Israel is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ years after the unity government collapsed .
Support for the Blue and White party has also collapsed and that leaves Likud in a very good position .
It looks likely that any government returned will be to the right rather than the centre .
Much of the Blue and White support is heading in the unlikely direction of Gideon Saar .
Its more a case of ‘ Anyone But Netanyahu ’ than ideology .
Meanwhile the controversial ( and racist ) Nation State Law passed by the Knesset continues to prove controversial , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ students in Carmiel seeking reimbursement for transporting their students outside the city due to a lack of Arabic language schooling within it .
The demolition of Palestinian villages and homes by Israel continues in the occupied territories .
The outlook in 2021 remains bleak for Arabs in Israel and those living in Palestine .
Last month Conchúr Ó Muadaigh , advocacy manager for Irish language group Conradh na Gaeilge , said that “ As we approach one year on from NDNA ( New Decade New Approach ) it is now time for the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ alongside the Irish language strategy also promised in that agreement.
” So what is the latest on those commitments to legislation for both the Irish language and Ulster Scots ?
On 30th November in response to a question from Andrew Muir MLA ( Alliance ) deputy First Minister Michelle O ’ Neill said that : So according to The Executive Office we should expect this legislation to be introduced in the New Year .
Any slippage in that will no doubt prove controversial given what preceded NDNA .
In the Dáil People Before @ @ @ @ @ @ @ forward a bill in 2021 to end the prohibition of cannabis .
The UN reclassified cannabis as a less dangerous drug in 2020 .
This followed a World Health Organisation recommendation that research into its medical use is made easier .
In the US 36 states have now legalised medical cannabis , with 15 allowing consumption and/or sale of cannabis .
In 2021 there ’ s a possibility of further reform in New York , Virginia and Connecticut .
A Cannabis Bill is also making its way through Congress in Mexico .
With @ @ @ @ @ @ @ place across the world it is archaic that police budgets in Ireland and Britain are still wasted on arresting people for using cannabis and that families have to jump through hoops to have any chance of accessing medical cannabis for loved ones that are in suffering .
Hopefully 2021 can be a turning point .
N is for NHS and other frontline workers Fighting on the frontline against the coronavirus for most of this past year and putting themselves at risk again in 2021 .
Lets not give them a clap or a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are paid well and that decisions are not made at Executive level that could overwhelm hospitals and the workers that are currently under immense mental and physical stress .
It is likely that many of us will return to offices at some time in 2021 and get some much craved social interaction but things will not return to how they were pre-March 2020 .
Or at least they shouldn ’ t .
Line managers don ’ t necessarily need to see employees at a desk to make sure that they are working .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ and less stressed to improve productivity are metrics that companies should have prioritised long ago .
2020 has been good in that there is not as much stigma attached to doing work-related video calls and have children running about in the background or sitting on your knee .
However the novelty of living our entire lives from our home , drinking wine whilst doing table quizzes by zoom and making our way through Netflix ’ s back catalogue in our living room / offices quickly wore off .
There is a need to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in line with the needs of individual employees .
Forcing employees to travel half their day for a one hour meeting for example is , and always was , nuts .
Presenteeism needs to end when we move to a ‘ new new ’ normal .
Individual MLAs were busy in 2020 drafting up proposals for Private Members legislation and 12 Bills are now being consulted on – with more in the pipeline .
The Bills cover a range of policy areas such as Autism , Trade Union Freedom , Single Use Plastics @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Fracking , Domestic Abuse and Hunting .
A cross-party Private Members Bill on Climate Change aims to commit the Executive to meet net zero emissions by 2045 .
Q is for Questions about Brexit & Sea Borders Best to follow @ JP_Biz for answers ( just don ’ t let him into your house as things will start to disappear ! )
Shane Lowry will hopefully be able to successfully defend the Claret Jug at the Open that has been rescheduled to July 2021 in Kent .
Towards the end of 2021 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ held by parties picking their prospective MLAs for the 2022 Assembly elections .
It will be interesting to see what older hands in the Assembly decide to call it a day and what talent emerges from the ranks of party grassroots .
T is for The Hill Control of which comes down to 2 runoff elections for the Senate in Georgia that take place in January .
If the Democrats win both seats the Senate would be split 50-50 with the Vice President Kamala Harris having the casting vote for any legislative decisions @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Biden will be able to do over the next couple of years and whether Republican Senators will be able to block and stymy his legislative programme .
The s**t has yet to hit the fan to be quite frank .
Local economist Richard Ramsey has said that There is going to be a huge challenge when furlough comes to an end .
Many sectors have already in effect lost January as a minimum due to lockdown restrictions .
At the moment we are still projecting how things will look post-Brexit .
We will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will impact sectors , markets and cost of living as 2021 beds down .
2021 should be a better year in terms of regaining some of the social freedom we have lost in 2020 but it may yet prove worse in terms of employment and the cost of living .
Currently being rolled out to key workers and older citizens , it will save many lives in our community .
The Oxford/AstraZeneca Covid-19 vaccine has now also been approved .
The Department of Health has said it means GPs can begin the first @ @ @ @ @ @ @ January , starting with those aged 80 years and over .
This is all fantastic news .
However with case numbers now surging and with the new strain being more contagious the threat is still very real .
The public needs to be more careful in the coming months and with the vaccines being rolled out we now can hopefully ‘ break the back ’ of the coronavirus threat to our loved ones .
Elections to the Senedd take place in May Welsh First Minister Mark Drakeford took a markedly different approach to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this has broadly went down well with Welsh voters , many of whom were unfamiliar with Drakeford pre-pandemic .
The Conservatives will be seeking to repeat their General election performance when they took a swatche of seats in the north of Wales .
In one recent opinion poll support for Welsh independence was as high as 33 % .
However support for pro-independence Plaid Cymru has not grown in line with that trend .
With Labour expected to lose some ground , and the Tories being seen as too unpalatable for Plaid there @ @ @ @ @ @ @ coalition could emerge from the May poll .
Also worth noting is that councils in Wales now have the option of ditching First Past The Post for local elections starting in 2022 after legislation was passed by the Senedd in November .
Xenophobia and racism is still a huge problem in the USA and elsewhere and 2020 shone a light on the USA in particular and a lot of ugly problems that they have failed to deal with .
The debate over public statues celebrating Confederate figures of the US Civil War for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Mississippi , the last state to have the confederate saltire in its flag , legislated to replace it with a newly designed flag .
Confederate symbols in town halls and localities within states will continue to come under scrutiny in 2021 .
Symbols of course are only a manifestation of the problems of racial inequality .
All eyes will be on the White House to see what strategies are put in place to deal with systemic racism .
Biden referred to ‘ the battle to achieve racial justice and root out systemic racism @ @ @ @ @ @ @ speech .
Black Lives Matter has become a significant political movement in the US and expect actions to continue in 2021 aimed at all levels of governance .
The NIO ’ s launch of its campaign to mark 100 years of partition didn ’ t get off to a great start as it faced a backlash of complaints about using an image of Seamus Heaney in its branding .
Of course it has already divided parties at Assembly and Council level .
The BBC has launched a podcast focussed on the year .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ everyone ’ s cup of tea .
However continuing historical analysis of the period by Eamon Phoenix and others is sure to be worth a read / listen .
Z is for ( Net ) Zero 2021 must be the year that the world leaps into a net zero future according to the UN Secretary-General António Guterres .
Countries representing around 65 % of global CO2 emissions , and around 70 % of the world ’ s economy , will have committed to net zero emissions or carbon neutrality by early next year @ @ @ @ @ @ @

A is for Angela
After 16 years in office Angela Merkel stands down as German Chancellor when her term ends in September 2021.
The pandemic has certainly helped the CDU/CSU bounce back in German opinion polls. However the CDU has yet to decide who its leader will be going into the federal election and there is no great enthusiasm for the three candidates that have thrown their hats in the ring.
The poll should see the SPD relegated to third place in German politics with the Greens consistently being in second or on occasion first place in opinion polls increasing the possibility of a Black-Green coalition emerging by the end of the year.
The CDU are in a comfortable position at present but with the Chancellor standing down after 16 years it will be interesting to see if the CDU/CSU union’s popularity can remain where its currently at post-Merkel.
B is for Biden
The Irish-American political veteran from Pennsylvania will become the 46th President of the United States in January at an inauguration that will have to be low-key by necessity.
His first challenge are the Senate elections in Georgia which will dictate whether the Democrats will be able to control both Houses or not. This will be critical in terms of the delivery of Biden’s agenda.
Biden’s victory will mark a u-turn in the US government policy towards the climate crisis. He will sign the US up to the Paris Agreement again and put the country on a pathway towards net zero
A better US-Ireland relationship is expected to emerge in 2021. The special US-UK relationship that we have seen in the past looks set to change radically. Not only because of the differences between Biden and Johnson over Brexit but the fact that the incoming administration will not see the UK as being as powerful as they were in the past. Brussels, Paris and Berlin will more likely be the corridors of power that the US will pay attention to, not London. Johnson has a lot of ground to make up with Biden after betting so heavily on Trump winning a second term.
Also bookies are giving 11/8 odds on Biden making Ireland his first foreign visit in 2021.
C is for Census
‘Census Day’ will be on 21st March 2021. There will be the usual focus on religious background when the results are eventually published but new questions will be included for the first time on sexual orientation and renewable energy systems.
This will be a digital first census which will make it easier for people to fill in and send back .
The Irish government has postponed its census in the south for a year until 2022.
D is for Dublin
Which along with Glasgow and London is planning to host a number of games at ‘Euro 2020’ which has been rescheduled to take place in June-July 2021. None of the teams this side of the Irish Sea made it through to the Finals unfortunately but Scotland v England at Wembley will be one to watch on 18th June.
E is for electric cars
With a huge array of new models coming onto the market next year 2021 could be the ‘tipping point’ year for electric vehicles. In the next 12 months global electric vehicle sales are expected to grow 50% or more compared to 2-5% for internal combustion engine vehicles.
Tesla shares have surged in 2020 and the company are expanding into new markets including India in the new Year.
With bans on new internal combustion engine (ICE) cars due in 2030 for Ireland and Britain expect more models to come on the market from Volkswagen and others. Even Apple is hoping to bring out an electric car by 2024.
F is for Fianna Fáil
Micheál Martin is now 6 months into his premiership as Taoiseach but 2020 was bittersweet for the party. Of course Fianna Fáil did win the most seats in the election and Martin became the first party Taoiseach in 9 years.
However Sinn Féin winning the popular vote in February and the continuing attacks by Fine Gael on Mary-Lou’s McDonald’s party has helped to create an environment where many see Fine Gael and Sinn Féin as natural political opposites.
This all feeds in to some of the tensions in the party about what they stand for and whether Martin should lead them into the future. Potential successors are already beginning to circle.
2021 will be a critical year for Fianna Fáil and there may be trouble ahead if Martin cannot put wind back into the sails of the party and get them back up alongside Sinn Féin and Fine Gael in the opinion polls.
G is for Glasgow
The UN’s COP 26 (Climate Change Conference) takes place in Glasgow in November and is being mooted as the most significant climate conference since Paris in 2015 when a target was set to limit global warming by 1.5 degrees.
Former US Vice-President Al Gore said
“All eyes will be on Glasgow less than a year from now – this is actually when we will determine that the tipping point has been crossed and that we are beginning a new era, with humanity finally going serious about solving this existential threat to our existence.”
Cathy Allen from Extinction Rebellion COP stated:
“The 25 meetings of COP have so far only achieved the Paris Agreement. Though a start in terms of coming together, the Paris Agreement is not nearly enough to protect humanity. The world is watching as time runs out. Fires, floods, sea level rise, heat waves, drought, food insecurity – all these are happening now. But just around the corner, we can see that much worse is coming. COP26 is a historic opportunity for a just and fair agreement to control climate heating to 1.5 degrees Celsius.”
H is for Holyrood
The elections to the Scottish Parliament in May will be treated as a de facto referendum by the SNP and First Minister Nicola Sturgeon who will have a second Indy referendum at the heart of their 2021 manifesto.
The support for Scottish independence has been consistently ahead of that for maintaining the union for the past 7 months.
Sturgeon will be keen to seize on that momentum in favour of ‘Yes’ in the midst of a Brexit opposed by the majority of Scottish voters and her positive and consistent performance in terms of the handling of the pandemic.
The question is how can a referendum be held without the consent of Boris Johnson and Westminster? Can the Scottish Parliament paddle their own canoe and pass legislation to hold an ‘advisory referendum’? It has never been tested in court so this remains unclear.
Unionist parties may also decide to boycott any such poll. However Johnson will be acutely aware that London blocking decisions made by the Scottish Parliament could actually lead to a reaction that actually boosts support for independence.
For Sturgeon timing is crucial. Many Indy activists want a referendum held in the immediate aftermath of the elections when full details of the Brexit deal and its implications are clear and if mass unemployment locks into the economy popular discontent in Scotland could well be at its peak.
However Sturgeon might not want to hold one right away but has said that she would campaign to hold a vote “in the early part of the new parliament”.
I is for Irish Passports
to use at EU/EEA lanes and e-gates at airports in 2021. Having one also means keeping your right to freedom of movement within the EU and the right to work and study in any EU country without a visa and with no time limit.
J is for Japan
The delayed Olympic and Paralympic Games kick off in Tokyo in July.
K is for Knesset
Israel is heading for its fourth election in two years after the unity government collapsed. Support for the Blue and White party has also collapsed and that leaves Likud in a very good position.
It looks likely that any government returned will be to the right rather than the centre. Much of the Blue and White support is heading in the unlikely direction of Gideon Saar. Its more a case of ‘Anyone But Netanyahu’ than ideology.
Meanwhile the controversial (and racist) Nation State Law passed by the Knesset continues to prove controversial, being used by a court against Arab students in Carmiel seeking reimbursement for transporting their students outside the city due to a lack of Arabic language schooling within it.
The demolition of Palestinian villages and homes by Israel continues in the occupied territories.
The outlook in 2021 remains bleak for Arabs in Israel and those living in Palestine.
L is for Language Acts
Last month Conchúr Ó Muadaigh, advocacy manager for Irish language group Conradh na Gaeilge, said that
“As we approach one year on from NDNA (New Decade New Approach) it is now time for the legislation agreed to be implemented in full alongside the Irish language strategy also promised in that agreement.”
So what is the latest on those commitments to legislation for both the Irish language and Ulster Scots?
On 30th November in response to a question from Andrew Muir MLA (Alliance) deputy First Minister Michelle O’Neill said that :
“Officials are undertaking the necessary preparatory work to legislate for the core elements of the Bills, and we intend to progress legislation during 2020-21 and to create the relevant bodies as quickly as possible thereafter. “I am happy to give you the commitment that, when we introduce the Bills, they will be laid out with a very clear time frame for delivery and you will be able to chart their way through the rest of the mandate.”
So according to The Executive Office we should expect this legislation to be introduced in the New Year. Any slippage in that will no doubt prove controversial given what preceded NDNA.
M is for Marijuana
In the Dáil People Before Profit’s Gino Kenny will bring forward a bill in 2021 to end the prohibition of cannabis.
The UN reclassified cannabis as a less dangerous drug in 2020. This followed a World Health Organisation recommendation that research into its medical use is made easier.
In the US 36 states have now legalised medical cannabis, with 15 allowing consumption and/or sale of cannabis. In 2021 there’s a possibility of further reform in New York, Virginia and Connecticut. A Cannabis Bill is also making its way through Congress in Mexico.
With reform of laws relating to cannabis taking place across the world it is archaic that police budgets in Ireland and Britain are still wasted on arresting people for using cannabis and that families have to jump through hoops to have any chance of accessing medical cannabis for loved ones that are in suffering. Hopefully 2021 can be a turning point.
N is for NHS and other frontline workers
Fighting on the frontline against the coronavirus for most of this past year and putting themselves at risk again in 2021. Lets not give them a clap or a pat on the back lets ensure they are paid well and that decisions are not made at Executive level that could overwhelm hospitals and the workers that are currently under immense mental and physical stress.
O is for Offices
It is likely that many of us will return to offices at some time in 2021 and get some much craved social interaction but things will not return to how they were pre-March 2020. Or at least they shouldn’t. Line managers don’t necessarily need to see employees at a desk to make sure that they are working. Measuring outcomes and ensuring employees are happy and less stressed to improve productivity are metrics that companies should have prioritised long ago.
2020 has been good in that there is not as much stigma attached to doing work-related video calls and have children running about in the background or sitting on your knee. However the novelty of living our entire lives from our home, drinking wine whilst doing table quizzes by zoom and making our way through Netflix’s back catalogue in our living room / offices quickly wore off.
There is a need to return to balance which needs to be in line with the needs of individual employees. Forcing employees to travel half their day for a one hour meeting for example is, and always was, nuts. Presenteeism needs to end when we move to a ‘new new’ normal.
P is for Private Members Bills
Individual MLAs were busy in 2020 drafting up proposals for Private Members legislation and 12 Bills are now being consulted on – with more in the pipeline.
The Bills cover a range of policy areas such as Autism, Trade Union Freedom, Single Use Plastics, Zero Hour Contracts, Integrated Education, Fracking, Domestic Abuse and Hunting.
A cross-party Private Members Bill on Climate Change aims to commit the Executive to meet net zero emissions by 2045.
Q is for Questions about Brexit & Sea Borders
Best to follow @JP_Biz for answers (just don’t let him into your house as things will start to disappear!)
R is for Royal St George’s Golf Club
Shane Lowry will hopefully be able to successfully defend the Claret Jug at the Open that has been rescheduled to July 2021 in Kent.
S is for Selection Conventions
Towards the end of 2021 expect to see a series of these held by parties picking their prospective MLAs for the 2022 Assembly elections.
It will be interesting to see what older hands in the Assembly decide to call it a day and what talent emerges from the ranks of party grassroots.
T is for The Hill
Control of which comes down to 2 runoff elections for the Senate in Georgia that take place in January.
If the Democrats win both seats the Senate would be split 50-50 with the Vice President Kamala Harris having the casting vote for any legislative decisions.
These elections will dictate how much Biden will be able to do over the next couple of years and whether Republican Senators will be able to block and stymy his legislative programme.
U is for Unemployment
The s**t has yet to hit the fan to be quite frank.
Local economist Richard Ramsey has said that
“It’s difficult to get a true picture of what’s happening in the labour market because there is so much support – whether that’s the job retention scheme or the self-employment income support scheme – which is giving an artificial picture and flattering the true state of the labour market”.
There is going to be a huge challenge when furlough comes to an end. Many sectors have already in effect lost January as a minimum due to lockdown restrictions. At the moment we are still projecting how things will look post-Brexit. We will get a clearer view of how that will impact sectors, markets and cost of living as 2021 beds down.
2021 should be a better year in terms of regaining some of the social freedom we have lost in 2020 but it may yet prove worse in terms of employment and the cost of living.
V is for Vaccines.
Currently being rolled out to key workers and older citizens, it will save many lives in our community.
The Oxford/AstraZeneca Covid-19 vaccine has now also been approved.
The Department of Health has said it means GPs can begin the first phase of population vaccination from Monday 4th January, starting with those aged 80 years and over.
This is all fantastic news. However with case numbers now surging and with the new strain being more contagious the threat is still very real.
The public needs to be more careful in the coming months and with the vaccines being rolled out we now can hopefully ‘break the back’ of the coronavirus threat to our loved ones.
W is for Wales
Elections to the Senedd take place in May
Welsh First Minister Mark Drakeford took a markedly different approach to the Covid pandemic than Boris Johnson and this has broadly went down well with Welsh voters, many of whom were unfamiliar with Drakeford pre-pandemic.
The Conservatives will be seeking to repeat their General election performance when they took a swatche of seats in the north of Wales.
In one recent opinion poll support for Welsh independence was as high as 33%. However support for pro-independence Plaid Cymru has not grown in line with that trend.
With Labour expected to lose some ground, and the Tories being seen as too unpalatable for Plaid there is a strong possibility that a Lab-Plaid coalition could emerge from the May poll.
Also worth noting is that councils in Wales now have the option of ditching First Past The Post for local elections starting in 2022 after legislation was passed by the Senedd in November.
X is for Xenophobia
Xenophobia and racism is still a huge problem in the USA and elsewhere and 2020 shone a light on the USA in particular and a lot of ugly problems that they have failed to deal with.
The debate over public statues celebrating Confederate figures of the US Civil War for example is still continuing. In 2020 Mississippi, the last state to have the confederate saltire in its flag, legislated to replace it with a newly designed flag.
Confederate symbols in town halls and localities within states will continue to come under scrutiny in 2021.
Symbols of course are only a manifestation of the problems of racial inequality. All eyes will be on the White House to see what strategies are put in place to deal with systemic racism. Biden referred to ‘the battle to achieve racial justice and root out systemic racism in this country’ in his victory speech.
Black Lives Matter has become a significant political movement in the US and expect actions to continue in 2021 aimed at all levels of governance.
Y is for (100) years
The NIO’s launch of its campaign to mark 100 years of partition didn’t get off to a great start as it faced a backlash of complaints about using an image of Seamus Heaney in its branding.
Of course it has already divided parties at Assembly and Council level.
The BBC has launched a podcast focussed on the year.
Certain centenary events won’t be everyone’s cup of tea. However continuing historical analysis of the period by Eamon Phoenix and others is sure to be worth a read / listen.
Z is for (Net) Zero
2021 must be the year that the world leaps into a net zero future according to the UN Secretary-General António Guterres.
Countries representing around 65% of global CO2 emissions, and around 70% of the world’s economy, will have committed to net zero emissions or carbon neutrality by early next year.
All eyes on Glasgow then.


sluggerotoole--2020-01-31--What do the #GE2020 parties have to say about Northern Ireland…

So what are the parties in the Republic ’ s race saying about Northern Ireland ?
Well , as you might expect most of the smaller parties don ’ t really spend much time on the matter .
Both the Irish Labour Party and the Greens only make a passing mention .
The Soc Dems launch their manifesto today , so I will add theirs and Aontú ‘ s as and when they come to hand .
It may be I ’ ve missed some important details that affect Northern Ireland indirectly , but I ’ ve tried to stick @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is Fianna Fáil ‘ s .
A preamble outlines its objective as peace through reconciliation via “ an active and strong Northern Ireland Executive , deeper and wider shared public services ” across the border , and “ strong British-Irish co-operation ” .
Here ’ s the outline of their six-point plan : • Create a Border Economic Development Zone to foster growth in the border region .
We will allocate €5m to this as an initial investment .
• Work to amend state aid rules to support SMEs affected by Brexit .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ the A5 as outlined within existing resources .
• Work with N.I , UK and EU authorities to source funding to build the Narrow Water Bridge .
We will provide an allocation of €12m as part of Ireland ’ s contribution to the bridge over the next five years .
• Use the Border Economic Development Zone to jointly plan infrastructure • Ensure there is All island basis in the National Planning Framework • Build Education links with Dundalk and Letterkenny IT as well as opening up universities to more students from across @ @ @ @ @ @ @ co-ordination in rail and bus across the Border .
Strengthen North-South , British-Irish political institutions in the aftermath of Brexit and the “ New Decade , New Approach ” deal : • Review and expand North-South bodies without any further delay • Require each government department to report and outline how they will increase their connections and work with their Northern Ireland counterparts .
• Establish a new British-Irish forum to replace lost diplomatic opportunities following Brexit .
• Ensure the systematic exchange of information between Dublin and Belfast including consultation on EU @ @ @ @ @ @ @ may impact on North/South trade .
• Resource the Agency with permanent staff as part of our expansion of An Garda Síochána Fine Gael , on the other hand , is already in government and a large part of the first page on Northern Ireland recounts the New Decade , New Approach settlement that so recently got the Stormont institutions restarted .
Brexit also looms large .
The Greens call for both for an opposition and a voluntary coalition in which “ ministers and the programme for government should be subject to endorsement @ @ @ @ @ @ @ majority ” , and the change to be subject to a referendum .
Labour mentions are pretty much ‘ hope she works for you all ’ stuff about wanting the institutions to work this time .
The one practical suggestion is “ an inclusive , non-sectarian public conversation on the future of Ireland ” on the lines of the 1983/4 New Ireland Forum .
“ Self-Portrait ( undated ) – José de Almada Negreiros ( 1893-1970 ) ” by pedrosimoes7 is licensed under CC BY

So what are the parties in the Republic’s race saying about Northern Ireland? Well, as you might expect most of the smaller parties don’t really spend much time on the matter. Both the Irish Labour Party and the Greens only make a passing mention.
The Soc Dems launch their manifesto today, so I will add theirs and Aontú‘s as and when they come to hand. It may be I’ve missed some important details that affect Northern Ireland indirectly, but I’ve tried to stick to practical suggestions.
The most detailed is Fianna Fáil‘s. A preamble outlines its objective as peace through reconciliation via “an active and strong Northern Ireland Executive, deeper and wider shared public services” across the border, and “strong British-Irish co-operation”.
Here’s the outline of their six-point plan:
Build a shared Economy:
Make a 12.5% Corporate Tax Rate work for both jurisdictions.
Increase Intertrade Ireland, IDA, Invest NI Joint Initiatives to attract international investment.
Create a Border Economic Development Zone to foster growth in the border region. We will allocate €5m to this as an initial investment.
Work to amend state aid rules to support SMEs affected by Brexit.
Deepen tourism links.
Deepen Planning & Infrastructure links:
Provide funding for the development of the A5 as outlined within existing resources.
Work with N.I, UK and EU authorities to source funding to build the Narrow Water Bridge. We will provide an allocation of €12m as part of Ireland’s contribution to the bridge over the next five years.
Use the Border Economic Development Zone to jointly plan infrastructure
Ensure there is All island basis in the National Planning Framework
Secure long-term EU-UK agreement on PEACE and INTERREG programme funding
Enhance shared Public Services:
Retain and develop shared Health services.
Build Education links with Dundalk and Letterkenny IT as well as opening up universities to more students from across the border.
Increase public transport co-ordination in rail and bus across the Border.
Strengthen North-South, British-Irish political institutions in the aftermath of Brexit and the “New Decade, New Approach” deal:
Review and expand North-South bodies without any further delay
Require each government department to report and outline how they will increase their connections and work with their Northern Ireland counterparts.
Establish a new British-Irish forum to replace lost diplomatic opportunities following Brexit.
Ensure the systematic exchange of information between Dublin and Belfast including consultation on EU regulations and regulatory compliance insofar as they may impact on North/South trade.
Combat cross-border Crime:
Establish a Cross border Crime Agency on a statutory basis
Resource the Agency with permanent staff as part of our expansion of An Garda Síochána
Establish new co-operation protocols to ensure information exchange continues
Work towards a consensus on Unity:
We will establish within the Department of An Taoiseach a unit to lead a formal study and cross-community consultation on a Green Paper to outline how the Irish government should approach the handling of any unity referendum should circumstances arise where it can be called.
Fine Gael, on the other hand, is already in government and a large part of the first page on Northern Ireland recounts the New Decade, New Approach settlement that so recently got the Stormont institutions restarted. Brexit also looms large.
It talks about getting PEACE PLUS programme for Northern Ireland and border counties worth up to €1 billion, as part of the EU Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) negotiations and a continuation of Northern Ireland and Wales in Interreg. It promises to “progress key infrastructure projects such as the A5, the Narrow Water Bridge and the Ulster Canal connection from Clones to Upper Lough Erne” a high-speed rail connection between Belfast, Dublin and Cork. And enhanced all-island air travel. It suggests a cross border third level campus between Derry and Letterkenny. It also promises to implement legislation to deal with the legacy of the Troubles. Like PBP, Sinn Féin has no separate heading on Northern Ireland and indeed the name of the jurisdiction is only mentioned in a quotation taken directly from the text of the Belfast Agreement itself. The most relevant section is Planning for Unity. What’s most notable is the lack of any firm proposals, instead talks about the people they’ve canvassed in the US. It mentions the popularity of Irish Unity in the exit poll during May’s local elections (but no mention that it lost half of its seats in the same elections). Rather it talks up the demographic trends (amongst Catholics and Protestants) which “suggest a nationalist voting majority in the north is close”, and it wants “the government” to plan for it. There’s nothing here that translates into a programme for government. Buried elsewhere there’s a suggestion that the “reopening of existing rail links which are no longer in use” such as the old line between Sligo, Enniskillen and Derry (closed in 1957) could be rebuilt, but unsurprisingly there’s no costings for that. All of its bulleted actions are concerned with process rather than delivery: Seek the full implementation of the Good Friday Agreement, including the all-island institutions
Establish a Joint Oireachtas Committee on Irish Unity
Establish an all-island representative Citizens’ Assembly or appropriate forum to discuss and plan for Irish Unity
Publish a White Paper on Irish Unity
Secure a referendum, north and south, on Irish Unity
The Greens call for both for an opposition and a voluntary coalition in which “ministers and the programme for government should be subject to endorsement by the Assembly by a 66% majority”, and the change to be subject to a referendum.
Labour mentions are pretty much ‘hope she works for you all’ stuff about wanting the institutions to work this time. The one practical suggestion is “an inclusive, non-sectarian public conversation on the future of Ireland” on the lines of the 1983/4 New Ireland Forum.
People Before Profit has no mention of Northern Ireland in its document. All of its focus is on Irish Unity, under which it issues a blank call for a border poll and for “people to [create] their destiny in a United Ireland” through citizen and constituent assemblies. Social Democrats want to foster “the closest possible relationship with the UK, support further cross-border collaboration, and prioritise our shared role as co-guarantors of the Good Friday Agreement, the St. Andrews Agreement and the 2020 Northern Ireland Agreement”.
“Self-Portrait (undated) – José de Almada Negreiros (1893-1970)” by pedrosimoes7 is licensed under CC BY


#BrexitDay-Nothing but damage

In Jan Carson ’ s The Fire Starters , there is a quote : “ There is never enough silence to contain all our talking…….we continue to believe that across the sea , Europe ( and also the world ) is holding its breath for the next chapter in our sad story .
The world is not waiting.
” More than anywhere else in the UK , Brexit shifted the ground beneath Northern Ireland .
It threw us down on different sides , sides that were also the battle lines that came before .
This might cause some problems , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ve done quite a bit of talking over the past three years , more so than usual .
We have talked and yelled at one another about Brexit .
Some of us wanted a backstop .
Others hated the idea of an Irish Sea border .
A few wanted to jump off the cliff and into the abyss of No Deal .
The language of Brexit rolls off our tongues like its always been there .
Everything has come at a cost .
There are new categories , leave and remain , to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ new ways to hurt one another and we ’ ve done it in spades .
Brexit leaves nothing but damage in Northern Ireland .
We ’ ve tried to make other people understand the talking .
They listened to us , for a while .
After all of it , nobody got what they wanted .
Brexiteer hero Boris Johnson did a deal with Remainer champion , Leo Varadkar .
The EU backed them up .
The Withdrawal Agreement has no backstop and a border down the Irish Sea .
Its impact could @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Ireland .
How does it all “ end ” ?
With Northern Ireland ’ s one Brexiteer MP voting against the Withdrawal Agreement .
It ends with her sitting quietly while Nigel Farage and his Brexit Party MEPs wave triumphant British flags .
It ends with the return of the Assembly and our politicians shuffling awkwardly around the building while they plead for the money necessary to keep the country going .
Our MLAs voted unanimously to withhold consent for Boris Johnson ’ s deal but it didn ’ t really matter .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ cared .
At eleven o ’ clock this evening , the United Kingdom leaves the European Union after 47 years .
The narrative for tonight is that it ’ s finally over .
We can move on and focus on important things now .
In parts of Britain and the Republic they are already putting Brexit to the back of their minds .
It isn ’ t over for us .
We are being contained in a box with the chaos of the last three years .
When the Northern Ireland Protocol kicks @ @ @ @ @ @ @ four years to align with the EU or Britain .
If the vote doesn ’ t have cross community support , we will have to vote again in another four years and so on and so on as long the protocol applies .
We get to vote in eight years after the first vote if there is cross community support .
Welcome to cyclical hell .
The Protocol kicks in on New Year ’ s Eve .
The next Assembly election is in 2022 .
We vote to elect Westminster again in 2024 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the same year or in 2026 .
We will not emerge from this without further division .
Brexit has the potential to drag Northern Ireland back to a dark place .
If we head down that path again the most frightening question is this : will anybody be paying attention ?
Remainers will be waiting for tonight with dread .
We lost , after all .
Some Brexiteers are having a celebration but it will hardly be a night for champagne .
You have to wonder if this is what the DUP @ @ @ @ @ @ @ : Jim Wells drinking celebratory Fanta outside Stormont .
We need to share space today .
People should be allowed to celebrate and mourn .
Tomorrow we need to accept a salient fact : we have nobody else but each other right now .
Photo by Mediamodifier is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA

In Jan Carson’s The Fire Starters, there is a quote: “There is never enough silence to contain all our talking…….we continue to believe that across the sea, Europe (and also the world) is holding its breath for the next chapter in our sad story. The world is not waiting.”
More than anywhere else in the UK, Brexit shifted the ground beneath Northern Ireland. It threw us down on different sides, sides that were also the battle lines that came before. This might cause some problems, thanks, we said.
We’ve done quite a bit of talking over the past three years, more so than usual. We have talked and yelled at one another about Brexit. Some of us wanted a backstop. Others hated the idea of an Irish Sea border. A few wanted to jump off the cliff and into the abyss of No Deal. The language of Brexit rolls off our tongues like its always been there.
Everything has come at a cost. There are new categories, leave and remain, to add to the others. We have new ways to hurt one another and we’ve done it in spades. Brexit leaves nothing but damage in Northern Ireland.
We’ve tried to make other people understand the talking. They listened to us, for a while.
After all of it, nobody got what they wanted. Brexiteer hero Boris Johnson did a deal with Remainer champion, Leo Varadkar. The EU backed them up. The Withdrawal Agreement has no backstop and a border down the Irish Sea. Its impact could be disastrous for the economy in Northern Ireland.
How does it all “end”? With Northern Ireland’s one Brexiteer MP voting against the Withdrawal Agreement. It ends with her sitting quietly while Nigel Farage and his Brexit Party MEPs wave triumphant British flags. It ends with the return of the Assembly and our politicians shuffling awkwardly around the building while they plead for the money necessary to keep the country going. Our MLAs voted unanimously to withhold consent for Boris Johnson’s deal but it didn’t really matter. Nobody, including the EU, really cared.
At eleven o’clock this evening, the United Kingdom leaves the European Union after 47 years.
The narrative for tonight is that it’s finally over. We can move on and focus on important things now. In parts of Britain and the Republic they are already putting Brexit to the back of their minds.
It isn’t over for us. We are being contained in a box with the chaos of the last three years. When the Northern Ireland Protocol kicks in, the Assembly will vote in four years to align with the EU or Britain. If the vote doesn’t have cross community support, we will have to vote again in another four years and so on and so on as long the protocol applies. We get to vote in eight years after the first vote if there is cross community support. Welcome to cyclical hell.
The Protocol kicks in on New Year’s Eve. The next Assembly election is in 2022. We vote to elect Westminster again in 2024. Northern Ireland will vote on alignment in the same year or in 2026. We will not emerge from this without further division. Brexit has the potential to drag Northern Ireland back to a dark place. If we head down that path again the most frightening question is this: will anybody be paying attention?
Remainers will be waiting for tonight with dread. We lost, after all. Some Brexiteers are having a celebration but it will hardly be a night for champagne. You have to wonder if this is what the DUP pictured when they decided to back Brexit: Jim Wells drinking celebratory Fanta outside Stormont.
We need to share space today. People should be allowed to celebrate and mourn. Tomorrow we need to accept a salient fact: we have nobody else but each other right now.
Photo by Mediamodifier is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA


sluggerotoole--2020-02-03--Explainer: Injured Victims’ Payments

Explainer: Injured Victims’ Payments

The campaign for a pension for seriously injured victims has been a long road since it started back in 2012 , following a report by Marie Breen-Smyth on the impact of the Troubles on those injured .
Led by members of the Wave injured group and supported by the Commission for Victims and Survivors , the pension campaign was about remedying the way injured victims had been inadequately compensated in the past , discriminated or ill-treated .
For many years the issue was caught in the political jostling of who is considered a deserving victim for the pension , with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ groups often raised .
Although the Victims and Survivors ( NI ) Order 2006 provides a broad definition of a victim , it is related only to the work of the Commission for Victims and Survivors and the Victims and Survivors Service ( VSS ) .
Other countries do not include all victims in their payment schemes , but try to provide a remedy to those who have had their human rights violated .
The recently created injured victims ’ payments scheme in Northern Ireland aims to focus on those who are disabled @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , many of whom are in their older age , by providing them a lump sum or monthly pension as a means of financial security .
This follows a consultation by the Northern Ireland Office in October-November 2019 on payments for seriously injured victims , after the 2014 Stormont House Agreement committed to ‘ further work will be undertaken to seek an acceptable way forward on the proposal for a pension for severely physically injured victims ’ .
This blog post provides a brief overview of the main provisions of the scheme .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ of State for Northern Ireland Mr Julian Smith signed into law and placed before Parliament the ‘ Victims ’ Payments Regulations 2020 ’ , which will provide a pension scheme to those seriously injured as a result of the Troubles/conflict in and around Northern Ireland .
While the provisions for the Board responsible for running the scheme will come into effect on the 24th February , the majority of the regulations do not come into effect until 29th May 2020 when the first applications will begin to be processed .
The scheme will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Disablement Payment Scheme ’ .
The purpose of the scheme is to ‘ acknowledge the harm suffered by those injured in the Troubles , and promote reconciliation between people in connection with Northern Ireland ’ s troubled past ’ ( Regulation 5 ( 6 ) ) .
The Board will be guided by principles on the need to be responsive to and prioritise victims ’ needs , to be transparent and communicate effectively , the Scheme to be simple to navigate , applications to be determined without delay , and for personal data @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 4 ) .
Anyone who has suffered a permanent disablement more than 14 % of a Troubles-related incident in the UK , in Europe where the person is a British citizen born in Northern Ireland , was outside UK in service of the Crown , or accompanying close relative of the person serving outside the UK in service of the Crown .
The time period for such an injury is between 1 January 1966 and 12 April 2010 , though the panel can overlook this time period if it undermines the purposes of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 1 ) ( d ) and ( 5 ) ) .
Under the regulations disablement is defined as ‘ damage , disfigurement and loss of physical or mental capacity resulting from injury ’ ( Reg .
2 ) .
While the degree of disablement will need to be assessed by a health care professional , the base rate of 14-20 % would include the loss of an index finger or hearing loss , in line other similar schemes .
The level of disablement beyond just the eligibility requirements will also determine the monthly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ claimant .
The assessment by a health care professional can be conducted by evaluating any relevant information before the Board , any previous report assessments or by carrying out an examination on an application ( Reg .
15 ) .
This means that not all victims will need to be examined , in particular where previous information on their disablement whether through medical records , VSS or other bodies is available .
For those whose disablement does not allow a degree of disablement to be permanent determined , an interim assessment will be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ two years , which can be extended once more ( Reg .
14 ) .
For those individuals who believe their disablement has worsened they can apply to have a reassessment ( Reg .
33 ) .
Individuals will have to demonstrate that their injury is a result of being present at a Troubles-related incident ( determined by the Board ) , present in the immediate aftermath of a Troubles-related incident in which a loved one died or suffered an injury , responding , in the course of employment to a Troubles-related incident @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a loved one had died or suffered significant injury ( Reg .
7 ) .
A loved one includes those married , in civil partnership or cohabitating for over two years , or a parent and a child .
However , an individual being eligible does not mean that they will be a beneficiary , as there are some exclusions and restrictions on the amount that may be available .
The most explicit exclusion is for those with relevant convictions that were as a result of ‘ conduct which caused , wholly or @ @ @ @ @ @ @ were seriously injured in .
A relevant conviction are those which have been spent or unspent and excluded under the under the Rehabilitation of Offenders ( Northern Ireland ) Order 1978 , i.e .
longer than thirty months or life sentences .
While in the first instance this will exclude those convicted for being involved in instances that they were injured in , it also has a wider scope for the Board to exclude those with any relevant conviction ( not related to the injury ) if it would be inappropriate to award @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
6 ) .
A review panel within the Board can re-examine a decision to exclude an applicant with a relevant conviction ( Reg .
43 ( 2 ) ) .
All those applying must do so through an application form to the Board .
Once the form is received a panel with the Board will assess if the applicant meets the criteria and entitled to the payment , with an assessment by a health care professional on the degree of disablement ( Regs .
12-13 ) .
Applicants will be notified in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on whether or not they are eligible and the amount of their payment , giving a summary of reasons and informing them of a right to appeal where appropriate ( Reg .
17 ) .
Applicants who are eligible will be notified again when the determination of their payment has been determined , in which they will receive in writing the amount they will receive , a summary reason for the decision and their right to appeal ( Reg .
22 ) .
The Board can prioritise the delivery of the payments depending @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the applicant and with particular regard to those who have informed them that they are terminally ill ( Reg .
11 ) .
An appeals process within the Board provides for victims to appear in person at the oral hearing and the appeals panel has the power to confirm , re-decide or vary a decision , including increasing , decreasing or confirming an assessment of the degree of disablement ( Regs .
34-41 ) .
Payments will normally be made on a monthly basis for eligible applicants , but the Board can @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are over sixty or terminal ill and inform the Board on their application form ( Reg .
24 ) .
Payments will also be backdated from the date of the application and three years after this date , to reflect that the scheme would have been in operation from the Stormont House Agreement on the 23rd December 2014 ( Reg .
21 ) .
However , the payment amount can be modified by other payments related to the same disablement of the victims ’ payment , such as a disablement pension or past @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ) .
While a fixed amount will need to be determined by the Board as to what is exempted compensation will not be considered in taking into account the appropriate amount for the victims ’ payments .
Some indication of the calculation is provided in the Government ’ s response to the pension consultation amount of the victims ’ payment they would have been entitled to from the date of their injury , the effect of inflation and time value of money ( Reg .
20 ( 4-7 ) ) .
In effect @ @ @ @ @ @ @ compensated in the 1970s would likely to be unaffected by this calculation , whereas individuals compensated in the late 1990s may receive a reduced amount depending on the Board ’ s decision and the time period for such a reduction to last .
At the same time the victims ’ payment will not affect a person ’ s income or capital for the purposes of social security benefit ( employment and support allowance , housing benefit , income support , jobseeker ’ s allowance , state pension or universal credit ) , cost @ @ @ @ @ @ @ criminal injury compensation award ( Reg .
26 ) .
The claimant can nominate a spouse , civil or cohabitating partner or carer to be the beneficiary of the payments for 10 years after their death ( Reg .
9 ) .
Carers are defined as those who are ‘ regularly and substantially ’ engaged in caring for the applying victim , in that they are entitled to a carer ’ s allowance or it is seen as fair to do so by a panel appointed by the Board , but it excludes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for caring for the victim .
Spouse/partners or carers can also make applications when the victim has died on or before the 23rd December 2014 within a ten-year period and entitled to the payments for 10 years where it falls within the time .
For instance an injured victim who died in December 2010 , their spouse/partner or carer could make an application for 6 years of payments , as four of those years fall outside the entitlement period running from the Stormont House Agreement in December 2014 .
In all the victims @ @ @ @ @ @ @ security to seriously injured victims of the Troubles/conflict in and around Northern Ireland .
While some of the details have to be mapped out by the Board once it is constituted , there will be a review process in two years time , in particular to backdate awards after year three of its operation and beyond .
For more information here are the Regulations and the Government ’ s Consultation Response .

The campaign for a pension for seriously injured victims has been a long road since it started back in 2012, following a report by Marie Breen-Smyth on the impact of the Troubles on those injured. Led by members of the Wave injured group and supported by the Commission for Victims and Survivors, the pension campaign was about remedying the way injured victims had been inadequately compensated in the past, discriminated or ill-treated. For many years the issue was caught in the political jostling of who is considered a deserving victim for the pension, with the eligibility of injured members of paramilitary groups often raised. Although the Victims and Survivors (NI) Order 2006 provides a broad definition of a victim, it is related only to the work of the Commission for Victims and Survivors and the Victims and Survivors Service (VSS). Other countries do not include all victims in their payment schemes, but try to provide a remedy to those who have had their human rights violated.
The recently created injured victims’ payments scheme in Northern Ireland aims to focus on those who are disabled as a result of a Troubles-related injury, many of whom are in their older age, by providing them a lump sum or monthly pension as a means of financial security. This follows a consultation by the Northern Ireland Office in October-November 2019 on payments for seriously injured victims, after the 2014 Stormont House Agreement committed to ‘further work will be undertaken to seek an acceptable way forward on the proposal for a pension for severely physically injured victims’. This blog post provides a brief overview of the main provisions of the scheme.
The Scheme
On the 31st January 2020 the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland Mr Julian Smith signed into law and placed before Parliament the ‘Victims’ Payments Regulations 2020’, which will provide a pension scheme to those seriously injured as a result of the Troubles/conflict in and around Northern Ireland. While the provisions for the Board responsible for running the scheme will come into effect on the 24th February, the majority of the regulations do not come into effect until 29th May 2020 when the first applications will begin to be processed. The scheme will be known as the ‘Troubles Permanent Disablement Payment Scheme’.
The purpose of the scheme is to ‘acknowledge the harm suffered by those injured in the Troubles, and promote reconciliation between people in connection with Northern Ireland’s troubled past’ (Regulation 5(6)). The Board will be guided by principles on the need to be responsive to and prioritise victims’ needs, to be transparent and communicate effectively, the Scheme to be simple to navigate, applications to be determined without delay, and for personal data to be handled sensitively (Reg. 4).
Who can apply?
Anyone who has suffered a permanent disablement more than 14% of a Troubles-related incident in the UK, in Europe where the person is a British citizen born in Northern Ireland, was outside UK in service of the Crown, or accompanying close relative of the person serving outside the UK in service of the Crown. The time period for such an injury is between 1 January 1966 and 12 April 2010, though the panel can overlook this time period if it undermines the purposes of the scheme (Reg. 5(1)(d) and (5)).
Under the regulations disablement is defined as ‘damage, disfigurement and loss of physical or mental capacity resulting from injury’ (Reg. 2). While the degree of disablement will need to be assessed by a health care professional, the base rate of 14-20% would include the loss of an index finger or hearing loss, in line other similar schemes. The level of disablement beyond just the eligibility requirements will also determine the monthly payment amount or lump sum of the claimant. The assessment by a health care professional can be conducted by evaluating any relevant information before the Board, any previous report assessments or by carrying out an examination on an application (Reg. 15). This means that not all victims will need to be examined, in particular where previous information on their disablement whether through medical records, VSS or other bodies is available. For those whose disablement does not allow a degree of disablement to be permanent determined, an interim assessment will be carried out up to a maximum of two years, which can be extended once more (Reg. 14). For those individuals who believe their disablement has worsened they can apply to have a reassessment (Reg. 33).
Individuals will have to demonstrate that their injury is a result of being present at a Troubles-related incident (determined by the Board), present in the immediate aftermath of a Troubles-related incident in which a loved one died or suffered an injury, responding, in the course of employment to a Troubles-related incident, in which the person reasonably believed a loved one had died or suffered significant injury (Reg. 7). A loved one includes those married, in civil partnership or cohabitating for over two years, or a parent and a child. However, an individual being eligible does not mean that they will be a beneficiary, as there are some exclusions and restrictions on the amount that may be available.
Exclusions
The most explicit exclusion is for those with relevant convictions that were as a result of ‘conduct which caused, wholly or in part’ with the incident they were seriously injured in. A relevant conviction are those which have been spent or unspent and excluded under the under the Rehabilitation of Offenders (Northern Ireland) Order 1978, i.e. longer than thirty months or life sentences. While in the first instance this will exclude those convicted for being involved in instances that they were injured in, it also has a wider scope for the Board to exclude those with any relevant conviction (not related to the injury) if it would be inappropriate to award them the victims’ payment (Reg. 6). A review panel within the Board can re-examine a decision to exclude an applicant with a relevant conviction (Reg. 43(2)).
Application Process
All those applying must do so through an application form to the Board. Once the form is received a panel with the Board will assess if the applicant meets the criteria and entitled to the payment, with an assessment by a health care professional on the degree of disablement (Regs. 12-13). Applicants will be notified in writing of the Board’s decision on whether or not they are eligible and the amount of their payment, giving a summary of reasons and informing them of a right to appeal where appropriate (Reg. 17). Applicants who are eligible will be notified again when the determination of their payment has been determined, in which they will receive in writing the amount they will receive, a summary reason for the decision and their right to appeal (Reg. 22).
The Board can prioritise the delivery of the payments depending on the evidence provided, the age of the applicant and with particular regard to those who have informed them that they are terminally ill (Reg. 11). An appeals process within the Board provides for victims to appear in person at the oral hearing and the appeals panel has the power to confirm, re-decide or vary a decision, including increasing, decreasing or confirming an assessment of the degree of disablement (Regs. 34-41).
Payments will normally be made on a monthly basis for eligible applicants, but the Board can pay a lump sum for those who are over sixty or terminal ill and inform the Board on their application form (Reg. 24). Payments will also be backdated from the date of the application and three years after this date, to reflect that the scheme would have been in operation from the Stormont House Agreement on the 23rd December 2014 (Reg. 21). However, the payment amount can be modified by other payments related to the same disablement of the victims’ payment, such as a disablement pension or past compensation (Regs. 19 and 20). While a fixed amount will need to be determined by the Board as to what is exempted compensation will not be considered in taking into account the appropriate amount for the victims’ payments. Some indication of the calculation is provided in the Government’s response to the pension consultation amount of the victims’ payment they would have been entitled to from the date of their injury, the effect of inflation and time value of money (Reg. 20(4-7)). In effect this will mean that individuals who were compensated in the 1970s would likely to be unaffected by this calculation, whereas individuals compensated in the late 1990s may receive a reduced amount depending on the Board’s decision and the time period for such a reduction to last.
At the same time the victims’ payment will not affect a person’s income or capital for the purposes of social security benefit (employment and support allowance, housing benefit, income support, jobseeker’s allowance, state pension or universal credit), cost of residential accommodation or repayment of a criminal injury compensation award (Reg. 26).
Other provisions
The claimant can nominate a spouse, civil or cohabitating partner or carer to be the beneficiary of the payments for 10 years after their death (Reg. 9). Carers are defined as those who are ‘regularly and substantially’ engaged in caring for the applying victim, in that they are entitled to a carer’s allowance or it is seen as fair to do so by a panel appointed by the Board, but it excludes those who are paid as an income for caring for the victim. Spouse/partners or carers can also make applications when the victim has died on or before the 23rd December 2014 within a ten-year period and entitled to the payments for 10 years where it falls within the time. For instance an injured victim who died in December 2010, their spouse/partner or carer could make an application for 6 years of payments, as four of those years fall outside the entitlement period running from the Stormont House Agreement in December 2014.
In all the victims’ payment scheme provides acknowledgement and financial security to seriously injured victims of the Troubles/conflict in and around Northern Ireland. While some of the details have to be mapped out by the Board once it is constituted, there will be a review process in two years time, in particular to backdate awards after year three of its operation and beyond.
For more information here are the Regulations and the Government’s Consultation Response.


sluggerotoole--2020-02-03--Martin and Varadkar and playing a game of chicken, with Sinn Fein trying to get inside the coop

Now I may have got this wrong because I haven ’ t been catching Irish TV election coverage here in London .
But am the only one thinking that the parties in the election are sleepwalking through the campaign ?
Varadkar and Martin are playing for margins as if they were German party leaders .
Who in GB could imagine a party leader speculating about a grand coalition in the first week of the campaign ?
Coalitions can be deadly for its members and confidence and supply not much better , witness the fate of the lib Dems in GB @ @ @ @ @ @ @ narrowly until November , thanks to fundamental splits inside the Labour party more fundamental than Brexit , even exceeding those within Tory ranks .
Yes , first past the post imposes more binary results than PR – but until Johnson ’ s big victory we learned that by itself , it doesn ’ t ensure a clean outcome .
Both Fine Gael and Fianna Fail are suffering from the denial of voters ’ choice produced by confidence and supply bottling up the inevitable demand for change from “ austerity ” .
This is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ they have to run very hard to stand still economically – and this despite some closing of the inequality gap .
On the figures produced by Prof Michael Marsh for RTE , Fine Gael stand no chance of reaching an 80 seat Dail majority based on a rainbow grouping of the entire opposition minus Sinn Fein .
Fianna Fail could make it but would the margin would still be tight .
And so the next government will be either the weakest of minorities and probably short lived , or a grand coalition of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ parties .
Goodness knows what voters will make of these prospects in the last week of the campaign .
Martin and Varadkar will be praying they neatly polarise as usual .
But not as yet… By rejecting Sinn Fein so vehemently , Micheal Martin is trying to eliminate them as a direct competitor for votes that could deny FF first place .
He shows no sign of heeding disquiet within his own ranks .
He is therefore gambling on the highest stakes of his own and his party ’ s future .
If @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s near the optimum 42 , a party revolution after polling day could topple him and reverse the Sinn Fein ban .
He himself could hardly eat so many words .
But could it happen before the next government has to be formed ?
Sinn Fein will see themselves as win : win as the main opposition party or as Fianna Fail ’ s eventual partner .
But opposition can be a two edged sword .
They can be seen as a government in waiting or the institutional losers .
Either way the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ parties slug it out on the basis of traditional allegiances must come into question .
Meanwhile no clear message on an approach to unity looks imminent if political ferment continues .

Now I may have got this wrong because I haven’t been catching Irish TV election coverage here in London. But am the only one thinking that the parties in the election are sleepwalking through the campaign? Varadkar and Martin are playing for margins as if they were German party leaders. Who in GB could imagine a party leader speculating about a grand coalition in the first week of the campaign? Coalitions can be deadly for its members and confidence and supply not much better, witness the fate of the lib Dems in GB after 2010. The Conservatives came through narrowly until November, thanks to fundamental splits inside the Labour party more fundamental than Brexit, even exceeding those within Tory ranks. Yes, first past the post imposes more binary results than PR – but until Johnson’s big victory we learned that by itself, it doesn’t ensure a clean outcome.
Both Fine Gael and Fianna Fail are suffering from the denial of voters’ choice produced by confidence and supply bottling up the inevitable demand for change from “ austerity”. This is clearly felt by many people who feel they have to run very hard to stand still economically – and this despite some closing of the inequality gap.
On the figures produced by Prof Michael Marsh for RTE, Fine Gael stand no chance of reaching an 80 seat Dail majority based on a rainbow grouping of the entire opposition minus Sinn Fein. Fianna Fail could make it but would the margin would still be tight. And so the next government will be either the weakest of minorities and probably short lived, or a grand coalition of the two ( hitherto?) main parties. Goodness knows what voters will make of these prospects in the last week of the campaign. Martin and Varadkar will be praying they neatly polarise as usual. But not as yet…
By rejecting Sinn Fein so vehemently, Micheal Martin is trying to eliminate them as a direct competitor for votes that could deny FF first place. He shows no sign of heeding disquiet within his own ranks. He is therefore gambling on the highest stakes of his own and his party’s future. If FF results were dire and SF’s near the optimum 42, a party revolution after polling day could topple him and reverse the Sinn Fein ban. He himself could hardly eat so many words. But could it happen before the next government has to be formed?
Sinn Fein will see themselves as win :win as the main opposition party or as Fianna Fail’s eventual partner. But opposition can be a two edged sword. They can be seen as a government in waiting or the institutional losers. Either way the party system in the Republic whereby two parties slug it out on the basis of traditional allegiances must come into question. Meanwhile no clear message on an approach to unity looks imminent if political ferment continues.


sluggerotoole--2020-02-03--Fergus on Monday: Hello Independence, My Old Friend

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