sluggerotoole--2020-04-18--Busting the Historical Myths: The Easter Rising Part 2- The Aftermath….

In my previous article I was probably a little mischievous in my conclusion as I attempted to convey that the British Intelligence Community was well aware of the plans for a Rising on Easter Sunday and that there had been on their part a wish to combat and defeat the Irish Volunteer movement once and for all .
There is now to this day a general feeling that the Rising and its aftermath changed Ireland utterly .
There is a feeling that the Rising was a springboard for an outpouring of Nationalist sentiment that would change Ireland forever .
However @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Was British Intelligence actually right in their approach to allow the Rising to happen and to , as they had told Casement , allow the festering sore to come to a head .
This may somewhat be the case .
Was the Rising and its aftermath not the seminal moment it is painted and was it in fact one factor , maybe not even the most important , in a number of factors that saw Irish Separatism come to dominate the Political landscape in Ireland ?
There can be no doubt that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ great deal of hostility from some sections at the time .
However much of the antagonism towards the Volunteers came from those who were termed ‘ Separation Women ’ .
These were women who relied on the state as their husbands were serving on the frontline in France .
Often their husbands sent home money as well representing a decent wage for these women .
Throughout the war period and even afterwards there was great hostility between these two factions .
Of course the 80,000 strong Unionist community in Dublin was also aghast @ @ @ @ @ @ @ many others the Rising itself was met with bafflement and amazement .
Throngs of crowds would gather daily to watch the unfolding chaos especially in Mount Street .
There was some anger of course at the takeover of many business premises like Jacob ’ s Biscuit factory but for the most part the population was not outright hostile to the Rebel ’ s actions .
The executions of the leaders of the rebels were taken in a two week period in May .
Fifteen in total would be executed including Willie Pearse , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ received a very harsh sentence indeed .
There can be no question that the executions of so many enflamed the situation .
Deaths had been expected however and General Maxwell in truth had been left with little choice but to conduct executions in earnest .
However the arrest of 3000 ‘ rebels ’ , of which half were released almost immediately , throughout the country was also a very poor error of judgement .
1500 or so ended up in Internment camps but the arrest of so many , on faulty intelligence left @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Prime Minister Asquith would visit Dublin during May and call off any more executions taking place as he felt the British had taken enough action .
But the damage was done .
A wave of Nationalism swept over Ireland but whether that translated into Separatism is very debateable .
David Lloyd George would meet John Redmond and Edward Carson to try and re-ignite Home Rule but both Redmond and Carson would be promised different solutions separately .
Redmond would be under the impression that Partition would be temporary , Carson that it would @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was sufficiently alarmed in the aftermath of the Rising and executions and John Dillon would declare that the Party ’ s life work was being , “ swept away in a sea of blood ” .
However the IPP were far from finished despite the swaying of opinion and would go on to win the West Cork by-election in November 1916 .
This was actually a gain from the All For Ireland League .
It was though becoming clear to the leadership of the IPP that there was a crucial need to find @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was to maintain the ascendancy .
By early 1917 it was certainly on the back foot but impressed upon the British Government the absolute imperative of finding a solution imminently .
To this end the British would announce a Constitutional Convention in May 1917 .
It would sit from July 1917 until April 1918 at Trinity College and was the last great hope of the IPP .
It brought together Irish Nationalism , Irish Unionism , Ulster Unionism , Labour and the Catholic Church hierarchy .
It also included prominent citizens such as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bodies .
Sinn Fein did not attend .
The key reason they cited was the terms of the Convention declared how best to find a solution with Ireland inside the Empire .
The Convention unfortunately for the IPP was doomed to failure .
It would end without agreement .
A great tragedy befell the convention in late 1917 when the Ulster Unionist chief negotiator Alexander McDowell fell ill and died .
With him also died any attempt by the Ulster delegation to find a solution which would avoid partition .
In the end @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in 1920 that the Ulster Unionist delegation did ‘ not move an inch ’ from their position of Ulster exclusion .
The failure of the convention was a great blow to the IPP .
They had also lost three by-elections to Sinn Fein in 1917 , albeit one of those losses was by a mere 37 votes .
Despite those losses the IPP would win three of their own by-elections in early 1918 , two of which were in Ulster , the other Waterford .
However with the war still dragging on and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to Home rule the IPP was further rocked in March 1918 when its great leader John Redmond died quite suddenly after post operative complications .
His death signalled the end of a Political era .
His replacement John Dillon although much less British orientated would take over at an extremely difficult moment as the Germans would launch a Spring Offensive , an event which would change the course of Irish history .
The last ditch attempt by the German armies to win the war with the Spring Offensive was initially quite successful and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Paris itself threatened the British Government embarked on a decision which would have a profound effect on Ireland .
Lloyd George extended the Military Service Bill to Ireland and would appoint Sir John French as Lord Lieutenant in Ireland with the view to imposing conscription .
In fact plans were even drawn up to use air power against those resisting .
The IPP withdrew from Westminster in protest but looked impotent , the Catholic Bishop ’ s had issued a statement declaring Irishmen to have the ‘ right to resist by all mean @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , but it was Sinn Fein who would take the lead in the campaign against conscription .
The Volunteer movement which had an estimated 10,000 members mushroomed into a force of 100,000 or more .
Indeed some of the more extreme Republicans like Cathal Brugha even drew up plans to assassinate the British Cabinet should conscription be enforced .
They also with the IPP and Labour Party presented the anti-conscription pledge signed by hundreds of thousands .
It was however the one day strikes of 23rd April 1918 led by Labour which would @ @ @ @ @ @ @ enforce Conscription .
The issue was on the back burner when in May most of those separatists and Republicans involved in the strike were arrested on the spurious claims now known as the ‘ German Plot ’ .
This sowed Sinn Fein ’ s status as the party who had done more than any to destroy the notion of conscription in Ireland .
Whether that was true or not Conscription had alienated and radicalised almost the entire Irish Nationalist population creating a mass movement that would change Ireland forever .
So was the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ there may be a tendency by Republicans to heighten its significance .
That of course is not to say it wasn ’ t a significant event as it clearly was but it was one in a series of events that would lead to separatism becoming the mainstream in Irish Nationalist Politics .
Despite this however the IPP would go on to gain 220,837 votes in the 1918 election to Sinn Fein ’ s 497,107 .
In a PR system they most definitely would not have seen the destruction they did when they lost @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
In the end though maybe it wasn ’ t the Easter Rising that was the watershed moment , maybe it wasn ’ t the failure of the Convention in 1917 which destroyed the IPP and maybe Conscription didn ’ t change the course of Irish History alone .
Maybe in fact it was the one thing that links the three and the true event that changed Ireland forever was the outbreak of the Great War .
Without which England ’ s difficult would not be Ireland ’ s opportunity , without which @ @ @ @ @ @ @ resolved by whatever means and without which enforcing Conscription would not even have been a notion .
Alas we will never know how events would have turned out but for the intervention of The Great War .
“ Kilmainham Gaol – Dublin , Ireland – Travel photography ” by Giuseppe Milo ( www.pixael.com ) is licensed under CC BY

In my previous article I was probably a little mischievous in my conclusion as I attempted to convey that the British Intelligence Community was well aware of the plans for a Rising on Easter Sunday and that there had been on their part a wish to combat and defeat the Irish Volunteer movement once and for all. There is now to this day a general feeling that the Rising and its aftermath changed Ireland utterly. There is a feeling that the Rising was a springboard for an outpouring of Nationalist sentiment that would change Ireland forever. However this may not fully be the case. Was British Intelligence actually right in their approach to allow the Rising to happen and to, as they had told Casement, allow the festering sore to come to a head. This may somewhat be the case. Was the Rising and its aftermath not the seminal moment it is painted and was it in fact one factor, maybe not even the most important, in a number of factors that saw Irish Separatism come to dominate the Political landscape in Ireland?
There can be no doubt that the Easter Rising was met with a great deal of hostility from some sections at the time. However much of the antagonism towards the Volunteers came from those who were termed ‘Separation Women’. These were women who relied on the state as their husbands were serving on the frontline in France. Often their husbands sent home money as well representing a decent wage for these women. Throughout the war period and even afterwards there was great hostility between these two factions. Of course the 80,000 strong Unionist community in Dublin was also aghast at the rebels actions. However to many others the Rising itself was met with bafflement and amazement. Throngs of crowds would gather daily to watch the unfolding chaos especially in Mount Street. There was some anger of course at the takeover of many business premises like Jacob’s Biscuit factory but for the most part the population was not outright hostile to the Rebel’s actions.
The executions of the leaders of the rebels were taken in a two week period in May. Fifteen in total would be executed including Willie Pearse, Padraig’s brother, who undoubtedly received a very harsh sentence indeed. There can be no question that the executions of so many enflamed the situation. Deaths had been expected however and General Maxwell in truth had been left with little choice but to conduct executions in earnest. However the arrest of 3000 ‘rebels’, of which half were released almost immediately, throughout the country was also a very poor error of judgement. 1500 or so ended up in Internment camps but the arrest of so many, on faulty intelligence left the military with questions to answer. Prime Minister Asquith would visit Dublin during May and call off any more executions taking place as he felt the British had taken enough action. But the damage was done. A wave of Nationalism swept over Ireland but whether that translated into Separatism is very debateable. David Lloyd George would meet John Redmond and Edward Carson to try and re-ignite Home Rule but both Redmond and Carson would be promised different solutions separately. Redmond would be under the impression that Partition would be temporary, Carson that it would be permanent.
The Irish Parliamentary Party was sufficiently alarmed in the aftermath of the Rising and executions and John Dillon would declare that the Party’s life work was being, “swept away in a sea of blood”. However the IPP were far from finished despite the swaying of opinion and would go on to win the West Cork by-election in November 1916. This was actually a gain from the All For Ireland League. It was though becoming clear to the leadership of the IPP that there was a crucial need to find agreement on Home Rule if the party was to maintain the ascendancy. By early 1917 it was certainly on the back foot but impressed upon the British Government the absolute imperative of finding a solution imminently. To this end the British would announce a Constitutional Convention in May 1917. It would sit from July 1917 until April 1918 at Trinity College and was the last great hope of the IPP. It brought together Irish Nationalism, Irish Unionism, Ulster Unionism, Labour and the Catholic Church hierarchy. It also included prominent citizens such as Mayor’s and chairmen of public bodies. Sinn Fein did not attend. The key reason they cited was the terms of the Convention declared how best to find a solution with Ireland inside the Empire.
The Convention unfortunately for the IPP was doomed to failure. It would end without agreement. A great tragedy befell the convention in late 1917 when the Ulster Unionist chief negotiator Alexander McDowell fell ill and died. With him also died any attempt by the Ulster delegation to find a solution which would avoid partition. In the end Joe Devlin of the IPP would lament in 1920 that the Ulster Unionist delegation did ‘not move an inch’ from their position of Ulster exclusion. The failure of the convention was a great blow to the IPP. They had also lost three by-elections to Sinn Fein in 1917, albeit one of those losses was by a mere 37 votes. Despite those losses the IPP would win three of their own by-elections in early 1918, two of which were in Ulster, the other Waterford. However with the war still dragging on and Ulster Unionism remaining intransigent in its opposition to Home rule the IPP was further rocked in March 1918 when its great leader John Redmond died quite suddenly after post operative complications. His death signalled the end of a Political era. His replacement John Dillon although much less British orientated would take over at an extremely difficult moment as the Germans would launch a Spring Offensive, an event which would change the course of Irish history.
The last ditch attempt by the German armies to win the war with the Spring Offensive was initially quite successful and created complete panic in London. With Paris itself threatened the British Government embarked on a decision which would have a profound effect on Ireland. Lloyd George extended the Military Service Bill to Ireland and would appoint Sir John French as Lord Lieutenant in Ireland with the view to imposing conscription. In fact plans were even drawn up to use air power against those resisting.
The IPP withdrew from Westminster in protest but looked impotent, the Catholic Bishop’s had issued a statement declaring Irishmen to have the ‘right to resist by all mean consonant with the law of God’, but it was Sinn Fein who would take the lead in the campaign against conscription. The Volunteer movement which had an estimated 10,000 members mushroomed into a force of 100,000 or more. Indeed some of the more extreme Republicans like Cathal Brugha even drew up plans to assassinate the British Cabinet should conscription be enforced. They also with the IPP and Labour Party presented the anti-conscription pledge signed by hundreds of thousands. It was however the one day strikes of 23rd April 1918 led by Labour which would break the spirit of the British to enforce Conscription. The issue was on the back burner when in May most of those separatists and Republicans involved in the strike were arrested on the spurious claims now known as the ‘German Plot’. This sowed Sinn Fein’s status as the party who had done more than any to destroy the notion of conscription in Ireland. Whether that was true or not Conscription had alienated and radicalised almost the entire Irish Nationalist population creating a mass movement that would change Ireland forever.
So was the Easter Rising all that important? Retrospectively there may be a tendency by Republicans to heighten its significance. That of course is not to say it wasn’t a significant event as it clearly was but it was one in a series of events that would lead to separatism becoming the mainstream in Irish Nationalist Politics. Despite this however the IPP would go on to gain 220,837 votes in the 1918 election to Sinn Fein’s 497,107. In a PR system they most definitely would not have seen the destruction they did when they lost all but 6 of their 67 seats. In the end though maybe it wasn’t the Easter Rising that was the watershed moment, maybe it wasn’t the failure of the Convention in 1917 which destroyed the IPP and maybe Conscription didn’t change the course of Irish History alone. Maybe in fact it was the one thing that links the three and the true event that changed Ireland forever was the outbreak of the Great War. Without which England’s difficult would not be Ireland’s opportunity, without which the Home Rule issue may have been resolved by whatever means and without which enforcing Conscription would not even have been a notion. Alas we will never know how events would have turned out but for the intervention of The Great War.
“Kilmainham Gaol – Dublin, Ireland – Travel photography” by Giuseppe Milo (www.pixael.com) is licensed under CC BY


sluggerotoole--2020-04-18--Slugger TV looks at the economic impact of COVID 19

Our first virtual Slugger TV !
This month David McCann explores the impact of coronavirus on the local economy with @ @ @ @ @ FSB Northern Ireland ) , Ryan McAleer ( Irish News business journalist ) and Paul @ @ @ @ @ policy adviser ) .
Edited by Alan Meban .
On the Youtube version below you @ @ @ @ @ to get subtitles .

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sluggerotoole--2020-04-19--Modern life has lost the daily sense of ebb and flow…

Who would have thought that walking is almost as good for depression as taking an antidepressant ?
As we all now know from the Government ’ s Coronavirus advice , exercise is not just good for our physical health but also for our mental health .
And not just any old exercise , the best is green exercise , exercise surrounded by nature .
Creation feeds our souls and spirits .
Looking at the birds of the air and considering the lilies of the field reassures us of God ’ s faithfulness and benevolence .
But in these days of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ walking at a steady pace , has a calming effect .
Rhythm has that effect and we shouldn ’ t be surprised .
God has built multiple rhythms into creation , the most basic , day and night , is fundamental and essential to life , each day giving us a fresh start and a host of new opportunities ; each night a time to regroup , be restored through sleep and process the events of the day in our dreams .
I have found these days of confinement at home quite disorientating @ @ @ @ @ @ @ next .
It is difficult to recall on which day a conversation took place or when I read a particular passage in a book or online .
I am sure this is due , at least in part , to losing the rhythm of the week ; going to work , meeting with friends , going to church – the activities that give a week shape and substance have gone .
That is why instituting new activities that inhabit the week and differentiate certain days are valuable .
Family Zoom times , online @ @ @ @ @ @ @ daily exercise sessions all help to give days and weeks structure .
Modern life , invaded by social media and the 24 hour news feed , not to mention the constant flow of emails into our inboxes , has lost the daily sense of ebb and flow , the chronological architecture that gives shape to a day .
The rhythm of the seven-day week , with a day of rest , was already in jeopardy .
In Belfast pressure to open up Sundays to greater commercial activity has been building .
Yet even @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Sabbath .
The weekly rhythm is good for wellbeing – human and economic .
However , suddenly the accelerating pace of life and incessant activity has come to an emergency stop , the jolt almost giving us whiplash .
Reminiscent of the biblical Year of Jubilee many of us are experiencing a prolonged Sabbath , an enforced rest , a time when we have no alternative but to cease from our normal work .
While the idea of Sabbath rest has become increasingly counter-cultural it is surely increasingly necessary .
The circumstances leading @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for lament .
Yet they provide us with the opportunity to rediscover the practice of a Sabbath , taking time to reflect , to learn from the experiences of the past week , to review our priorities and goals , to recall God ’ s goodness to us , to remind ourselves of His many gifts of love .
Essentially… to be grateful and , in the words of Walter Brueggemann… to ’ take time to be human ’ .
This pandemic is , in the words of the Book of Ecclesiastes , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to grieve .
But it is also a reminder to us that God ’ s rhythms are for our benefit and not to be ignored and that time to reflect , think and pray could help rebalance our lives , restore rhythm to our activity and produce a treasure that moths and rust can not destroy and neither thieves nor unemployment can steal .
This post was originally published on the Contemporary Christianity website .
Photo by GoranH is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA

Who would have thought that walking is almost as good for depression as taking an antidepressant? As we all now know from the Government’s Coronavirus advice, exercise is not just good for our physical health but also for our mental health. And not just any old exercise, the best is green exercise, exercise surrounded by nature.
Creation feeds our souls and spirits. Looking at the birds of the air and considering the lilies of the field reassures us of God’s faithfulness and benevolence. But in these days of heightened anxiety the rhythm of exercise, walking at a steady pace, has a calming effect. Rhythm has that effect and we shouldn’t be surprised. God has built multiple rhythms into creation, the most basic, day and night, is fundamental and essential to life, each day giving us a fresh start and a host of new opportunities; each night a time to regroup, be restored through sleep and process the events of the day in our dreams.
I have found these days of confinement at home quite disorientating, one day seeming much like the next. It is difficult to recall on which day a conversation took place or when I read a particular passage in a book or online. I am sure this is due, at least in part, to losing the rhythm of the week; going to work, meeting with friends, going to church – the activities that give a week shape and substance have gone. That is why instituting new activities that inhabit the week and differentiate certain days are valuable. Family Zoom times, online church meetings, Microsoft team meetings, daily exercise sessions all help to give days and weeks structure.
Modern life, invaded by social media and the 24 hour news feed, not to mention the constant flow of emails into our inboxes, has lost the daily sense of ebb and flow, the chronological architecture that gives shape to a day. The rhythm of the seven-day week, with a day of rest, was already in jeopardy. In Belfast pressure to open up Sundays to greater commercial activity has been building. Yet even institutions like the NHS benefit from a Sabbath. The weekly rhythm is good for wellbeing – human and economic.
However, suddenly the accelerating pace of life and incessant activity has come to an emergency stop, the jolt almost giving us whiplash. Reminiscent of the biblical Year of Jubilee many of us are experiencing a prolonged Sabbath, an enforced rest, a time when we have no alternative but to cease from our normal work.
While the idea of Sabbath rest has become increasingly counter-cultural it is surely increasingly necessary. The circumstances leading to this enforced inactivity are a cause for lament. Yet they provide us with the opportunity to rediscover the practice of a Sabbath, taking time to reflect, to learn from the experiences of the past week, to review our priorities and goals, to recall God’s goodness to us, to remind ourselves of His many gifts of love. Essentially… to be grateful and, in the words of Walter Brueggemann… to ’take time to be human’.
This pandemic is, in the words of the Book of Ecclesiastes, a time to cry and a time to grieve. But it is also a reminder to us that God’s rhythms are for our benefit and not to be ignored and that time to reflect, think and pray could help rebalance our lives, restore rhythm to our activity and produce a treasure that moths and rust cannot destroy and neither thieves nor unemployment can steal.
This post was originally published on the Contemporary Christianity website.
Photo by GoranH is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA


sluggerotoole--2020-04-19--More Musings from a Beginner Beekeeper in Lockdown…

When did the world last stop like this ?
The World Wars ?
The Spanish Flu ?
But it wasn ’ t the same handbrake skid to standstill .
When ’ s the last time so many noticed the sound of birds singing , or the small bright blooms of spring ?
Or had the time to notice the details of life ?
Bees are detail .
Bees are full-stops .
Before I started beekeeping , I thought I ’ d seen lots of bees .
But I hadn ’ t – not properly .
Drones – male bees have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
You can hold one in your hand without fear or fright .
Female worker bees have pointed rear ends .
My Irish black honeybees are just that , with no real discernible yellow stripes .
A queen bee is a pure delight to spot .
She ’ s much larger than a regular worker – her extended rear end must hold a lifetime worth of eggs .
I ’ ve seen my queen only once , just after she ’ d returned from one of her mating flights last summer ; a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and she landed on my husband ’ s white bee suit .
A new queen only leaves the hive for several mating flights at the start of her life .
My hive was in its infancy then , but we ’ d seen the empty queen cup , so we knew she was in there .
We carefully lifted her off his thigh and placed her back inside the hive .
It was such a thrill to actually see her !
A hive inspection must be done with great care .
You never @ @ @ @ @ @ @ If you accidentally kill or lose her you risk your whole colony too .
Small , seemingly insignificant details get lost amidst the noise of 21st century life .
Everything has to be bigger and brighter than before just to catch our attention .
Covid-19 has our full attention .
It ’ s so small it ’ s invisible to the naked eye , we ’ re all blind to it and it ’ s terrifying .
Care .
At least Covid-19 has brought that back to the forefront of life .
I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ my best friend ’ s birthday party .
A screen of square shaped lives from Dubai , to London , to Ireland .
It ’ s impossible to look someone in the eye through a screen , each pair distanced and reduced to specs .
But as least no one was wearing masks so lots of smiles were evident and the instantaneous response to smile back felt like a relief from something .
Warmth exuded from the screen and I longed to be in their real-life company .
A social diet of a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is bland in comparison to the variety on the screen .
I poured another gin and listened and laughed to their banter and promised never to take human company for granted again .
The forecast for the weekend is sunshine and the warnings coming over the radio waves and the tv echo with school authority .
We are not permitted to go outside unless it is essential and only once a day for exercise , if we disobey there will be harsh consequences .
The government is doing its best head teacher impersonation @ @ @ @ @ @ @ wonder how long we ’ ll all obey before some of us start to play truant ?
The Queen addressed the nation last night from Windsor castle .
Resplendent in glorious green with pearls and the obligatory brooch .
She urged the nation to ‘ do the right thing ’ and comforted us that ‘ we will meet again.
’ It was deemed a success .
Though I can ’ t understand why a nonagenarian who is safely holed up in her castle should make the nation feel better .
But she did @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
We all want to belong , we all need to identify to something , or with someone .
The Queen is the ultimate head teacher and perhaps the timing of her speech , just when people are becoming jaded with the idea of staying in while the sun shines was a masterpiece in planning ( or coincidence ) .
Something about this tiny woman shrunken down to the size of an oom-pah Loompa makes people behave .
Martin McGuinness called her , ‘ very nice ’ after he ’ d shook her @ @ @ @ @ @ @ reconciliation .
Donald Trump was meek and deferential in her company .
There is a reverence to this woman who was never meant to take the throne , but who did so at the tender age of twenty-five and who has stuck it out for an awe-inspiring sixty-eight years .
How many days has she woken up and wished she did not have to uphold the burden of being Queen ?
I can ’ t resist the temptation to liken her to a queen bee .
Restricted inside a hive for her whole @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not really in charge at all .
Looked after , but only for as long as she is useful .
Yes , the queen bee is deemed special and essential to the working of a hive .
She is lauded by us beekeepers and she ’ s revered if we are lucky enough to get a glimpse of her .
But if I was given the choice between a worker bee – allowed to fly free foraging for pollen , or the queen imprisoned inside the dark hive I know which I would @ @ @ @ @ @ @ experience as a mechanic during the Second World war as one of her most cherished times .
I can see why , if you are brought up in palaces , you would crave the dirt of normality .
While she sits resplendent in green telling us better days will come again , we believe her .
We have to , no one else seems to know what ’ s going on .
She carries the nation ’ s hope on her diminutive shoulders alongside her diamond brooch .
I ’ ve discovered my @ @ @ @ @ @ @ away.
’ We found a field full of dandelions and duly picked some for the bees .
I left a pile of them at the front of the hive ; a little devout offering from me to them .
No bees went near them !
Obviously , the nectar flow needs to be live to appeal to them .
Clever bees .
It ’ s 16 degrees today .
Husband is working from home and so it ’ s perfect to have a proper check of the hives under his more experienced supervision @ @ @ @ @ @ @ isolation sunshine has made to my honeybees !
My hive is bursting with brood , honey and pollen stores .
Underneath the top board the frames in a hive hang horizontal like a filing cabinet .
Each frame is filled with hexagonal honeycomb and each cell has either got a store of honey , pollen or larvae .
There are ten frames in a standard hive like mine and eight of mine were filled with either stores or larvae .
After six months sealed up in the cocooned darkness of the hive , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ grumpy at being disturbed , but they were really quiet , almost tame .
I hardly needed the smoker .
I gently blew on them and asked them to move along so I could readjust the frames and make my checks .
I didn ’ t see my queen , but the number of larvae in my hive means she ’ s in there and laying away like a superstar !

Friday 3rd April
When did the world last stop like this? The World Wars? The Spanish Flu? But it wasn’t the same handbrake skid to standstill. When’s the last time so many noticed the sound of birds singing, or the small bright blooms of spring? Or had the time to notice the details of life? Bees are detail. Bees are full-stops. Before I started beekeeping, I thought I’d seen lots of bees. But I hadn’t – not properly. Drones – male bees have blunt square bottoms and cannot sting. You can hold one in your hand without fear or fright. Female worker bees have pointed rear ends. My Irish black honeybees are just that, with no real discernible yellow stripes. A queen bee is a pure delight to spot. She’s much larger than a regular worker – her extended rear end must hold a lifetime worth of eggs. I’ve seen my queen only once, just after she’d returned from one of her mating flights last summer; a complete fluke. It was early evening and she landed on my husband’s white bee suit. A new queen only leaves the hive for several mating flights at the start of her life. My hive was in its infancy then, but we’d seen the empty queen cup, so we knew she was in there. We carefully lifted her off his thigh and placed her back inside the hive. It was such a thrill to actually see her! A hive inspection must be done with great care. You never know where your queen will be. If you accidentally kill or lose her you risk your whole colony too. Small, seemingly insignificant details get lost amidst the noise of 21st century life. Everything has to be bigger and brighter than before just to catch our attention. Covid-19 has our full attention. It’s so small it’s invisible to the naked eye, we’re all blind to it and it’s terrifying.
I think:
Care. At least Covid-19 has brought that back to the forefront of life.
I was invited to ‘zoom’ into my best friend’s birthday party. A screen of square shaped lives from Dubai, to London, to Ireland. It’s impossible to look someone in the eye through a screen, each pair distanced and reduced to specs. But as least no one was wearing masks so lots of smiles were evident and the instantaneous response to smile back felt like a relief from something. Warmth exuded from the screen and I longed to be in their real-life company. A social diet of a fifty-one-year-old man and thirteen and eight-year-old boys is bland in comparison to the variety on the screen. I poured another gin and listened and laughed to their banter and promised never to take human company for granted again.
The forecast for the weekend is sunshine and the warnings coming over the radio waves and the tv echo with school authority. We are not permitted to go outside unless it is essential and only once a day for exercise, if we disobey there will be harsh consequences. The government is doing its best head teacher impersonation to a classroom of millions. I wonder how long we’ll all obey before some of us start to play truant?
6th April 2020
The Queen addressed the nation last night from Windsor castle. Resplendent in glorious green with pearls and the obligatory brooch. She urged the nation to ‘do the right thing’ and comforted us that ‘we will meet again.’ It was deemed a success. Though I can’t understand why a nonagenarian who is safely holed up in her castle should make the nation feel better. But she did. Human nature is a strange thing. We all want to belong, we all need to identify to something, or with someone. The Queen is the ultimate head teacher and perhaps the timing of her speech, just when people are becoming jaded with the idea of staying in while the sun shines was a masterpiece in planning (or coincidence). Something about this tiny woman shrunken down to the size of an oom-pah Loompa makes people behave. Martin McGuinness called her, ‘very nice’ after he’d shook her hand in an acknowledgment of peace and reconciliation. Donald Trump was meek and deferential in her company. There is a reverence to this woman who was never meant to take the throne, but who did so at the tender age of twenty-five and who has stuck it out for an awe-inspiring sixty-eight years. How many days has she woken up and wished she did not have to uphold the burden of being Queen? I can’t resist the temptation to liken her to a queen bee. Restricted inside a hive for her whole life, in charge, but yet not really in charge at all. Looked after, but only for as long as she is useful. Yes, the queen bee is deemed special and essential to the working of a hive. She is lauded by us beekeepers and she’s revered if we are lucky enough to get a glimpse of her. But if I was given the choice between a worker bee – allowed to fly free foraging for pollen, or the queen imprisoned inside the dark hive I know which I would choose. Queen Elizabeth talks about her experience as a mechanic during the Second World war as one of her most cherished times. I can see why, if you are brought up in palaces, you would crave the dirt of normality. While she sits resplendent in green telling us better days will come again, we believe her. We have to, no one else seems to know what’s going on. She carries the nation’s hope on her diminutive shoulders alongside her diamond brooch.
8th April
I’ve discovered my bees don’t do ‘take away.’ We found a field full of dandelions and duly picked some for the bees. I left a pile of them at the front of the hive; a little devout offering from me to them. No bees went near them! Obviously, the nectar flow needs to be live to appeal to them. Clever bees.
It’s 16 degrees today. Husband is working from home and so it’s perfect to have a proper check of the hives under his more experienced supervision. What a difference two weeks of isolation sunshine has made to my honeybees! My hive is bursting with brood, honey and pollen stores.
Underneath the top board the frames in a hive hang horizontal like a filing cabinet. Each frame is filled with hexagonal honeycomb and each cell has either got a store of honey, pollen or larvae. There are ten frames in a standard hive like mine and eight of mine were filled with either stores or larvae. After six months sealed up in the cocooned darkness of the hive, I’d expected them to be grumpy at being disturbed, but they were really quiet, almost tame. I hardly needed the smoker. I gently blew on them and asked them to move along so I could readjust the frames and make my checks. I didn’t see my queen, but the number of larvae in my hive means she’s in there and laying away like a superstar!


sluggerotoole--2020-04-19--Two Years in New Ireland – Or How I Missed the Start of the Thatcher Era…

Following on from my previous post – here is how I came to be in New Ireland , and some of my experiences there .
I was studying civil engineering and unadventurously living at home , having gone to an all boys ’ schools and swopped that for a class full of guys at Queens .
A likely 40 year engineering career in the DOE ( Dept of Everything ) beckoned .
In the summer before my final year , I met a Fr Austin Healy , home on leave from Sierra Leone .
He described how he was overseeing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ around his mission station .
Once you get the right angles right , he said , everything falls into place .
It was a light bulb moment – if he could do this with no more than a theology degree , what would I not be able to do with my civil engineering degree ?
I could amount to something , avoid a lifetime in the DOE , and have girls admire me .
One girl in particular , anyway .
So I signed up for a 2 year stint with Voluntary Service @ @ @ @ @ @ @ days , VSO presented you with a shortlist of potential postings .
You were allowed to put them in order of preference , although there was no guarantee you would get your first choice .
Mine were PNG , Sierra Leone , Kenya and Fiji .
I plumped for Fiji first ; who wouldn ’ t ?
Sierra Leone was last .
My mum had warned me that Sierra Leone was “ The White Man ’ s Grave ” .
She must have known something , because my friend Roe was sent there @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
I got my second choice of PNG , and headed out there in September ’ 78 at the age of 22 .
When I arrived in the capital Port Moresby , I still did not know that I was going to New Ireland .
As a raw graduate , with zero practical experience , I was destined for the second city of Lae , to be taken under the wing of more experienced engineers .
New Ireland was a one-man-band posting ; about as far as you could go from HQ in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fitting in , for reasons I can ’ t recall .
My boss asked me if I would replace him .
“ You ’ ll love it Michael ” , he said , “ 200 miles of coral strand.
” And so I went , finding myself anointed with the title of Provincial Local Government Engineer for New Ireland .
A little about VSO .
The “ Voluntary ” bit is a tad misleading ; we were paid the indigenous rate for the job .
A lot less than an expatriate contract certainly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ without dependents to live comfortably .
VSO checked out the potential placements and matched them with putative volunteers , giving us a certain amount of training , and being a shoulder to cry on if needed .
In order for a placement to be deemed suitable , it had to incorporate a certain “ volunteer ethos ” .
My job fitted the bill because the Local Government Engineer was there to look after small community projects such as village water supplies , which would only get built with sweat equity input from the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ about VSO in PNG is that everyones ’ salary was put in a common fund and then divided out equally , so that a doctor was paid the same as a nurse , etc.
, with some funds being kept back to support worthwhile projects .
In the 1970s , PNG was volunteer Nirvana .
As I mentioned in my previous post , there little grinding poverty , but the indigenous third level education system was not yet producing medical , technical or social development professionals in any great numbers .
PNG seemed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ possibly because it was seen as a largely compliant test bed for NGOs ’ developmental theories , so there was enough dough to fund droves of us volunteers .
There were over 100 VSOs , to which could be added Canadians , New Zealanders , Aussies , and lots of mission volunteers .
On arrival , I was accommodated in a handsome fibreboard house with corrugated tin roof in the capital , Kavieng , sharing with Greg , a Canadian business development volunteer ; also of tender years .
There was a ceiling @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from the roof into a tank for our water supply , a flush toilet and a fairly regular town electricity supply .
Although it was hot and humid , we were on the pig ’ s back compared to the our fellow volunteers “ down the road ” who were in bush materials houses , with gas Tilly lamps and dry toilets that went “ Splat ” .
There were a scattering of about 15 other volunteers spread throughout the main island – teachers , nurse trainers , etc .
Volunteer nurse trainers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ( Ireland ) , Annie ( Canada ) , Sue ( Australia ) Eileen ( NZ ) .
Their house in the immediate background .
I had set off with high ideals of largely eschewing expatriate society and getting really “ integrated ” with the Papua New Guineans .
In this , I failed miserably .
My PNG colleagues were generally friendly with good English , so having a bit of chat and banter was no problem .
However , it was just so much easier to be relaxed with my fellow volunteers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
This was partly because we were almost all single with no long term plans , whereas the locals were mostly family people who were settled .
But it was also because they had the common experience of a tribal background ( I know , OWC , don ’ t say it ! )
, whereas we had the common culture of Monty Python , John Fowles novels and Boney M. In truth , as someone just emerging from his chrysalis , I was on a high most of the time , with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of people who I admired in the main , and a sense of my own importance that I simply could not have imagined a year or two ago .
There was no actual work up and running for me when I arrived .
The first task was communicating with councillors and Provincial Assembly members about how my organisation might be able to help communities in their area .
We could supply my “ expertise ” , plus technical staff that my HQ was to send , plus materials , for appropriate projects : @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ; aid post orderlies ’ clinics ; classrooms ; and even small sections of road .
In return , the community had to supply the labour .
Initially , this was meant to be free labour , but a practical compromise was that the workers would be paid half the rural minimum wage .
When the requests did start to roll in , I had to do assessment visits .
This was easier said than done , given the watery enviroment , lack of roads , and considerable distances to be covered .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ were locally fashioned timber canoes with outboard motors on the back , known as Mons .
Sturdy vessels mostly , but a bit scary when there was a beam sea .
A Mon , with the Provincial Minister for Technical Development at the helm .
Nothing was “ shovel ready ” until the back end of my first year .
My very supportive boss down in Moresby then started to drip feed me various talented foreman and carpenters who could lead the practical work in ways that were beyond me .
There were @ @ @ @ @ @ @ wells , wharves , etc .
– no point in re-inventing the wheel !
One small advantage of being a total greenhorn engineer was that I had no preconceived notions about needing such things as concrete delivery , heavy plant or power tools .
Just as well , as virtually everything was done by muscle power .
Also , I went with the flow on the pace of construction – social and community interactions trumped clocking on times at every turn .
Patience was needed in spades , and I found considerable reserves @ @ @ @ @ @ @ liners for a village well on a low lying small island .
Happiness is a gushing standpipe down below !
Constructing a causeway to a wharf at a mission station and village .
Woman proudly sitting on the construction stones which she has lifted out of the local river .
Using a home made rig to drive the pierhead steel piles .
The finished product , intended to help the community to ship their copra to Kavieng .
About 60 local women and men made this .
All too soon , two years @ @ @ @ @ @ @ home in late 1980 .
It was lovely to be back , but Maggie T ’ s brave new world was a cold house for a young civil engineer , and many others besides .
There were no worries now about my stagnating in the DOE ; they simply weren ’ t employing any of us .
The ROI provided a congenial port in the storm for a few years .
And the particular girl must have been impressed – we have now been married for 37 years .
I have wondered about @ @ @ @ @ @ @ New Ireland .
Of course , I got lots out of it , but what did I contribute ?
Due to my technical inexperience , and inexperience in dealing with people , there were plenty of things that could have been done better , to say the least .
And I did not have the opportunity to pass much of what little I did know to a Papua New Guinean , but that was more a failing of the system than mine .
The average age of a VSO was 20 something back @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
For the most part , that must be a good thing .

Following on from my previous post – here is how I came to be in New Ireland, and some of my experiences there.
I was studying civil engineering and unadventurously living at home, having gone to an all boys’ schools and swopped that for a class full of guys at Queens. A likely 40 year engineering career in the DOE (Dept of Everything) beckoned.
In the summer before my final year, I met a Fr Austin Healy, home on leave from Sierra Leone. He described how he was overseeing the building of classrooms and health centres around his mission station. Once you get the right angles right, he said, everything falls into place. It was a light bulb moment – if he could do this with no more than a theology degree, what would I not be able to do with my civil engineering degree? I could amount to something, avoid a lifetime in the DOE, and have girls admire me. One girl in particular, anyway. So I signed up for a 2 year stint with Voluntary Service Overseas (VSO).
In those days, VSO presented you with a shortlist of potential postings. You were allowed to put them in order of preference, although there was no guarantee you would get your first choice. Mine were PNG, Sierra Leone, Kenya and Fiji. I plumped for Fiji first; who wouldn’t? Sierra Leone was last. My mum had warned me that Sierra Leone was “The White Man’s Grave”. She must have known something, because my friend Roe was sent there and was invalided home after 4 months. I got my second choice of PNG, and headed out there in September ’78 at the age of 22.
When I arrived in the capital Port Moresby, I still did not know that I was going to New Ireland. As a raw graduate, with zero practical experience, I was destined for the second city of Lae, to be taken under the wing of more experienced engineers. New Ireland was a one-man-band posting; about as far as you could go from HQ in Moresby. The incumbent there was not fitting in, for reasons I can’t recall. My boss asked me if I would replace him. “You’ll love it Michael”, he said, “200 miles of coral strand.” And so I went, finding myself anointed with the title of Provincial Local Government Engineer for New Ireland.
A little about VSO. The “Voluntary” bit is a tad misleading; we were paid the indigenous rate for the job. A lot less than an expatriate contract certainly, but still enough for a person without dependents to live comfortably. VSO checked out the potential placements and matched them with putative volunteers, giving us a certain amount of training, and being a shoulder to cry on if needed. In order for a placement to be deemed suitable, it had to incorporate a certain “volunteer ethos”. My job fitted the bill because the Local Government Engineer was there to look after small community projects such as village water supplies, which would only get built with sweat equity input from the local community. . An admirable thing about VSO in PNG is that everyones’ salary was put in a common fund and then divided out equally, so that a doctor was paid the same as a nurse, etc., with some funds being kept back to support worthwhile projects.
In the 1970s, PNG was volunteer Nirvana. As I mentioned in my previous post, there little grinding poverty, but the indigenous third level education system was not yet producing medical, technical or social development professionals in any great numbers. PNG seemed to attract plentiful foreign aid money, possibly because it was seen as a largely compliant test bed for NGOs’ developmental theories, so there was enough dough to fund droves of us volunteers. There were over 100 VSOs, to which could be added Canadians, New Zealanders, Aussies, and lots of mission volunteers.
On arrival, I was accommodated in a handsome fibreboard house with corrugated tin roof in the capital, Kavieng, sharing with Greg, a Canadian business development volunteer; also of tender years. There was a ceiling fan in the main room, rainwater from the roof into a tank for our water supply, a flush toilet and a fairly regular town electricity supply. Although it was hot and humid, we were on the pig’s back compared to the our fellow volunteers “down the road” who were in bush materials houses, with gas Tilly lamps and dry toilets that went “Splat”.
Greg and Mike’s house in Kavieng.
There were a scattering of about 15 other volunteers spread throughout the main island – teachers, nurse trainers, etc.
Volunteer nurse trainers at Lemakot Catholic Mission Hospital – Paudie (Ireland), Annie (Canada), Sue (Australia) Eileen (NZ). Their house in the immediate background.
I had set off with high ideals of largely eschewing expatriate society and getting really “integrated” with the Papua New Guineans. In this, I failed miserably. My PNG colleagues were generally friendly with good English, so having a bit of chat and banter was no problem. However, it was just so much easier to be relaxed with my fellow volunteers, or indeed other young non-volunteer expats. This was partly because we were almost all single with no long term plans, whereas the locals were mostly family people who were settled. But it was also because they had the common experience of a tribal background ( I know, OWC, don’t say it!), whereas we had the common culture of Monty Python, John Fowles novels and Boney M. In truth, as someone just emerging from his chrysalis, I was on a high most of the time, with a sense of belonging to a group of people who I admired in the main, and a sense of my own importance that I simply could not have imagined a year or two ago.
There was no actual work up and running for me when I arrived. The first task was communicating with councillors and Provincial Assembly members about how my organisation might be able to help communities in their area. We could supply my “expertise”, plus technical staff that my HQ was to send, plus materials, for appropriate projects: village water supply improvements; small wharves; aid post orderlies’ clinics; classrooms; and even small sections of road. In return, the community had to supply the labour. Initially, this was meant to be free labour, but a practical compromise was that the workers would be paid half the rural minimum wage. When the requests did start to roll in, I had to do assessment visits. This was easier said than done, given the watery enviroment, lack of roads, and considerable distances to be covered. One of the main means of transport were locally fashioned timber canoes with outboard motors on the back, known as Mons. Sturdy vessels mostly, but a bit scary when there was a beam sea.
A Mon, with the Provincial Minister for Technical Development at the helm.
Nothing was “shovel ready” until the back end of my first year. My very supportive boss down in Moresby then started to drip feed me various talented foreman and carpenters who could lead the practical work in ways that were beyond me. There were also off-the-peg design drawings for buildings, wells, wharves, etc. – no point in re-inventing the wheel!
Newly built Aid Post Orderly’s House and Clinic
An “Irish Bridge” being constructed.
One small advantage of being a total greenhorn engineer was that I had no preconceived notions about needing such things as concrete delivery, heavy plant or power tools. Just as well, as virtually everything was done by muscle power. Also, I went with the flow on the pace of construction – social and community interactions trumped clocking on times at every turn. Patience was needed in spades, and I found considerable reserves of that.
Installing home made concrete liners for a village well on a low lying small island.
Making a small concrete dam on a hill above a village.
Happiness is a gushing standpipe down below!
Constructing a causeway to a wharf at a mission station and village.
Woman proudly sitting on the construction stones which she has lifted out of the local river.
Making a temporary platform prior to constructing a deep water pierhead.
Using a home made rig to drive the pierhead steel piles.
The finished product, intended to help the community to ship their copra to Kavieng. About 60 local women and men made this.
All too soon, two years was up, and I was heading home in late 1980. It was lovely to be back, but Maggie T’s brave new world was a cold house for a young civil engineer, and many others besides. There were no worries now about my stagnating in the DOE; they simply weren’t employing any of us. The ROI provided a congenial port in the storm for a few years. And the particular girl must have been impressed – we have now been married for 37 years.
I have wondered about the effect of my two years in New Ireland. Of course, I got lots out of it, but what did I contribute? Due to my technical inexperience, and inexperience in dealing with people, there were plenty of things that could have been done better, to say the least. And I did not have the opportunity to pass much of what little I did know to a Papua New Guinean, but that was more a failing of the system than mine. The average age of a VSO was 20 something back then; now it is 50 something. For the most part, that must be a good thing.


sluggerotoole--2020-04-20--Slugger news – new design, more readers, new features and more…

Just a quick post to keep you updated with some Slugger news .
As you might have noticed I did a bit of a redesign .
The aim was to clean up the site layout and made the posts more readable .
I changed the font to a serif one which is meant to be easier on the eye when reading large posts .
I am still tweaking the design so do not let know if you have any suggestions or feedback .
Slugger has had an astonishing 220,000 readers in the past month .
We wish it was under @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are .
You will have noticed a lot of new faces writing for Slugger over the past few weeks and I am pleased to say they have gone down a storm with the readers .
I decided to make Sundays a Covid-19 free day to give you all a break from the unrelenting doom .
I was worried about how tales of bees and breadmen might go down , but I was relieved that the readers loved these posts and appreciated a distraction .
We are always looking for new writers , see @ @ @ @ @ @ @ discovered if you type the @ key in a comment you can reference another commentator .
This is very useful when there is a lot of comments and you want to make sure who you are replying to .
On the screengrab below you can see it in action .
Can I give shout out to all our mods who have been doing a great job of keeping the comments area civil .
Other sites are turning off comments but we believe the comments are a crucial part of what makes Slugger work @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a voice .
Recently the comments have been more civil and less confrontational , so well done to all .
We never try to analyse too much what makes Slugger successful for fear of breaking the magic .
But I do know a key element of it is community .
In this time of isolation , worry and stress it is more important than ever to feel you are part of something .
Slugger works because people take the time to be involved – to write the posts , to comment , to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ etc .
To all of you , we are grateful .
We will never put annoying ads on Slugger .
Instead , we opt to be reader-supported .
If you like what we do please become a Friend of Slugger .
I am pleased that a lot of you do donate , and this helps us cover our costs , so thank you .
Photo by geralt is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA

Just a quick post to keep you updated with some Slugger news.
New Design
As you might have noticed I did a bit of a redesign. The aim was to clean up the site layout and made the posts more readable. I changed the font to a serif one which is meant to be easier on the eye when reading large posts. I am still tweaking the design so do not let know if you have any suggestions or feedback.
Increased readership
Slugger has had an astonishing 220,000 readers in the past month. We wish it was under happier circumstances but we are where we are.
New writers
You will have noticed a lot of new faces writing for Slugger over the past few weeks and I am pleased to say they have gone down a storm with the readers. I decided to make Sundays a Covid-19 free day to give you all a break from the unrelenting doom. I was worried about how tales of bees and breadmen might go down, but I was relieved that the readers loved these posts and appreciated a distraction. We are always looking for new writers, see this post for details.
New comments feature
I recently discovered if you type the @ key in a comment you can reference another commentator. This is very useful when there is a lot of comments and you want to make sure who you are replying to. On the screengrab below you can see it in action.
Can I give shout out to all our mods who have been doing a great job of keeping the comments area civil. Other sites are turning off comments but we believe the comments are a crucial part of what makes Slugger work and we will always let you have a voice. Recently the comments have been more civil and less confrontational, so well done to all.
The importance of community
We never try to analyse too much what makes Slugger successful for fear of breaking the magic. But I do know a key element of it is community. In this time of isolation, worry and stress it is more important than ever to feel you are part of something. Slugger works because people take the time to be involved – to write the posts, to comment, to attend our events, watch Slugger TV etc. To all of you, we are grateful.
Keep Slugger lit
We will never put annoying ads on Slugger. Instead, we opt to be reader-supported. If you like what we do please become a Friend of Slugger. I am pleased that a lot of you do donate, and this helps us cover our costs, so thank you.
Photo by geralt is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA


sluggerotoole--2020-04-20--The Sunday Times puts the boot into Boris Johnson’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic…

I am sure Boris was feeling bad enough recovering from COVID-19 , opening yesterdays Sunday Times I am sure did @ @ @ @ @ .
Coronavirus : 38 days when Britain sleepwalked into disaster was the headline and just @ @ @ @ @ subheading hammered home the main accusations – ‘ Boris Johnson skipped five Cobra meetings on @ @ @ @ @ order protective gear were ignored and scientists ’ warnings fell on deaf ears .
Failings @ @ @ @ @ thousands of lives ’ .
It told the story of a bumbling incoherent Government strategy @ @ @ @ @ large dollops of arrogance and complacency for good measure .
Click on some of the @ @ @ @ @ below to give you an idea .
“ Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth @ @ @ @ @ Commonwealth Office is licensed under CC BY Boris Johnson is very entertaining with bags of @ @ @ @ @ of thousands dead already , he is looking like a joke that is not funny @ @

I am sure Boris was feeling bad enough recovering from COVID-19, opening yesterdays Sunday Times I am sure did nothing to lift his mood.
Coronavirus: 38 days when Britain sleepwalked into disaster was the headline and just to reinforce the point the subheading hammered home the main accusations – ‘Boris Johnson skipped five Cobra meetings on the virus, calls to order protective gear were ignored and scientists’ warnings fell on deaf ears. Failings in February may have cost thousands of lives’.
It told the story of a bumbling incoherent Government strategy to deal with COVID-19 with large dollops of arrogance and complacency for good measure. Click on some of the screen grabs in the tweet below to give you an idea.
This story by the Sunday Times is absolutely damning about Boris Johnson’s reckless attitude towards the coronavirus. https://t.co/3Cyp1mnW8D pic.twitter.com/y5RZqivvk8 — Adam Bienkov (@AdamBienkov) April 18, 2020
“Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs” by Foreign and Commonwealth Office is licensed under CC BY
Boris Johnson is very entertaining with bags of charisma, but with tens of thousands dead already, he is looking like a joke that is not funny anymore.


sluggerotoole--2020-04-20--Reforming government in Northern Ireland

Government in Northern Ireland needs reform , but the fact that it works at all is actually impressive given the past , says Jess Sargeant of the Institute for Government , a London-based think-tank .
She was speaking in the first of a new series of podcasts produced by the Holywell Trust , which feature opinions from policy experts who consider some of Northern Ireland ’ s biggest challenges .
The Institute for Government published a review of Northern Ireland ’ s system of government at the end of last year , which considered how the civil service had coped @ @ @ @ @ @ @ there was no political leadership .
She concludes that the vacuum led to the emergence of a stronger civil society , with business organisations , human rights bodies and charities developing a stronger voice – which they continue to exercise , even after the Executive has resumed work .
However , while it is positive that the Northern Ireland Civil Service was able to function and run the system without an Executive , the Renewable Heat Incentive failings illustrated the weaknesses in the administration .
It needs to be acknowledged that unlike the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Northern Ireland Civil Service is a separate entity from the British civil service .
And that has had implications about limiting skills development in Northern Ireland administration , which showed through from the inquiry into RHI .
Jess makes the point that the “ power sharing arrangements are almost completely unique ” , which makes bold decision-making “ very difficult ” .
“ The fact that it works at all , is quite remarkable… we shouldn ’ t forget that.
” But that does not deflect from the need to introduce reforms that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ relationships of trust between representatives of parties that would prefer not to be working together is very challenging , but could benefit from good personal relationships and the development of mutual trust at a personal level .
Another weakness of the current system of government is the lack of evidence-based policy-making and the absence of independent expertise into decision-making .
That has been partially addressed by the formation of a new Northern Ireland think-tank , Pivotal , but the process could be further improved , says Jess , if think-tanks based in GB @ @ @ @ @ @ @ would be helpful if the devolved governments could learn from each other in terms of policy development and implementation .
One difference between Stormont and Westminster is the lack of expert support for Assembly committees , in contrast to select committees in Parliament .
With Northern Ireland government departments servicing the committees at Stormont , there is a limitation to committees ’ ability to gather the expertise needed to challenge the departments .
That is exacerbated by the political reality that with five parties within the Executive , a robust scrutiny function becomes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ comprised from those same five parties .
“ There ’ s a tendency to see the Northern Ireland Assembly as an extension of the Executive , as opposed to a check on it , ” argues Jess .
“ And so there ’ s a lot of work that needs to be done to allow the Assembly to develop its own individual identity.
” There needs to be what Jess calls a “ buttressing of the institutions ” in Northern Ireland .
One opportunity for systemic improvement comes from the example of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ enabled politicians to gain external cover in addressing difficult political decisions .
That process could be adopted in Northern Ireland to make progress on challenging issues , such as healthcare reform , where the Bengoa reform proposals have partially stalled .
Citizens ’ assemblies , though , are “ not a panacea ” , Jess stresses .
Politicians still need to work hard to engage the wider public to assist them in understanding why difficult decisions need to be taken .
It can , though , help with building public trust .
Another @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Jess , is returning some powers to local government .
She points out that political power is unusually centralised in Northern Ireland .
The interview with Jess Sargeant is the first of nearly 20 new podcasts produced by the Holywell Trust , a peace and reconciliation charity , financed by the Community Relations Council ’ s Media Grant Scheme .
It is available here .
Photo by veve is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA

Government in Northern Ireland needs reform, but the fact that it works at all is actually impressive given the past, says Jess Sargeant of the Institute for Government, a London-based think-tank. She was speaking in the first of a new series of podcasts produced by the Holywell Trust, which feature opinions from policy experts who consider some of Northern Ireland’s biggest challenges.
The Institute for Government published a review of Northern Ireland’s system of government at the end of last year, which considered how the civil service had coped with a three year period in which there was no political leadership. She concludes that the vacuum led to the emergence of a stronger civil society, with business organisations, human rights bodies and charities developing a stronger voice – which they continue to exercise, even after the Executive has resumed work.
However, while it is positive that the Northern Ireland Civil Service was able to function and run the system without an Executive, the Renewable Heat Incentive failings illustrated the weaknesses in the administration. It needs to be acknowledged that unlike the situation in Scotland and Wales, the Northern Ireland Civil Service is a separate entity from the British civil service. And that has had implications about limiting skills development in Northern Ireland administration, which showed through from the inquiry into RHI.
Jess makes the point that the “power sharing arrangements are almost completely unique”, which makes bold decision-making “very difficult”. “The fact that it works at all, is quite remarkable… we shouldn’t forget that.” But that does not deflect from the need to introduce reforms that enable better collective decision making. Building relationships of trust between representatives of parties that would prefer not to be working together is very challenging, but could benefit from good personal relationships and the development of mutual trust at a personal level.
Another weakness of the current system of government is the lack of evidence-based policy-making and the absence of independent expertise into decision-making. That has been partially addressed by the formation of a new Northern Ireland think-tank, Pivotal, but the process could be further improved, says Jess, if think-tanks based in GB engaged more with Northern Ireland. It would be helpful if the devolved governments could learn from each other in terms of policy development and implementation.
One difference between Stormont and Westminster is the lack of expert support for Assembly committees, in contrast to select committees in Parliament. With Northern Ireland government departments servicing the committees at Stormont, there is a limitation to committees’ ability to gather the expertise needed to challenge the departments. That is exacerbated by the political reality that with five parties within the Executive, a robust scrutiny function becomes more difficult when the committees are largely comprised from those same five parties.
“There’s a tendency to see the Northern Ireland Assembly as an extension of the Executive, as opposed to a check on it,” argues Jess. “And so there’s a lot of work that needs to be done to allow the Assembly to develop its own individual identity.” There needs to be what Jess calls a “buttressing of the institutions” in Northern Ireland.
One opportunity for systemic improvement comes from the example of the Republic, where citizens’ assemblies have enabled politicians to gain external cover in addressing difficult political decisions. That process could be adopted in Northern Ireland to make progress on challenging issues, such as healthcare reform, where the Bengoa reform proposals have partially stalled. Citizens’ assemblies, though, are “not a panacea”, Jess stresses. Politicians still need to work hard to engage the wider public to assist them in understanding why difficult decisions need to be taken. It can, though, help with building public trust.
Another reform that might be considered, suggests Jess, is returning some powers to local government. She points out that political power is unusually centralised in Northern Ireland.
The interview with Jess Sargeant is the first of nearly 20 new podcasts produced by the Holywell Trust, a peace and reconciliation charity, financed by the Community Relations Council’s Media Grant Scheme. It is available here.
Disclaimer: This project has received support from the Northern Ireland Community Relations Council which aims to promote a pluralist society characterised by equity, respect for diversity, and recognition of interdependence. The views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of the Community Relations Council.
Photo by veve is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA


sluggerotoole--2020-04-20--Fergus on Monday: Quarantine Colouring Fun

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sluggerotoole--2020-04-20--Oil prices have crashed so low that they will pay you to take it away…

The price of a barrel of oil is in freefall .
From the New York Times : Oil that is @ @ @ @ @ June fell 12 percent Monday to about $ 22 a barrel , but at the @ @ @ @ @ oil to be delivered next month was essentially deemed to be worthless .
Owing largely @ @ @ @ @ way that oil prices are set , the May benchmark actually fell into negative territory @ @ @ @ @ oil to sell were willing to pay people to take it off their hands .
@ @ @ @ @ lack of demand .
I am sure your car is like mine and has been @ @ @ @ @ few weeks .
With lack of demand they are running out of space to store @ @ @ @ @ producing .
Already you can get 500 litres of home heating oil for £140 , @ @ @ @ @ an eye on the price and filling up your tank for next winter .
“ @ @ @ @ @ ” by kanegen is licensed under CC BY

The price of a barrel of oil is in freefall. From the New York Times:
Oil that is scheduled to be delivered in June fell 12 percent Monday to about $22 a barrel, but at the same time a benchmark for oil to be delivered next month was essentially deemed to be worthless. Owing largely to a quirk in the way that oil prices are set, the May benchmark actually fell into negative territory, suggesting people who had oil to sell were willing to pay people to take it off their hands.
HISTORIC CHART: WTI May oil futures settle at -$37.63 a barrel (yes, that's negative price). Of course, it goes without saying: that's an all-time low | #OOTT #OilPriceWar #covid19 via @TheTerminal pic.twitter.com/pM6S9u0wyc — Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) April 20, 2020
The reason is obvious, lack of demand. I am sure your car is like mine and has been barely used in the past few weeks. With lack of demand they are running out of space to store the oil they are still producing.
Already you can get 500 litres of home heating oil for £140, it will be worthwhile keeping an eye on the price and filling up your tank for next winter.
“Nippon Oil(Yamaguchi)” by kanegen is licensed under CC BY


sluggerotoole--2020-04-20--“…most prevalent media bias is the bias in favour of news”

There ’ s a temptation to panic when , like most key players in the newspaper business , profits start heading through the floor .
I ’ m not saying that that is what the Sunday Times did to the UK government yesterday because I ’ ve not read the rest of the piece .
But as I noted on Friday , beyond certain magazines like The Economist ( which is actually having a good # Covid19 war ) the press generally is struggling to report a complex , dynamic ( and largely at this stage unfathomable ) situation .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ important observation of the news industry ( and not only in the UK ) : “ …the most prevalent media bias is the bias in favour of news .
Something new must be happening .
Restrictions should be tightened .
Or…relaxed .
They certainly shouldn ’ t just stay the same , because that wouldn ’ t be news .
And the nation demands news.
” Except , that it probably doesn ’ t .
Or , I should say , it doesn ’ t right now .
One of my older kids @ @ @ @ @ @ @ old da ) has very little time for politics or the media , now listens ( unlike her old da ) religiously to the government press briefings .
Each day she hears desperate journalists for clear answers to the same questions spokesmen couldn ’ t answer the day before .
This is stenography as journalism , which is not intended to inform but to enrage by selling our own stereotypes back to us .
Or as Terry Pratchett once said , “ what people think they want is news , but what they @ @ @ @ @ @ @ here ’ s the government ’ s ‘ fisking ’ response to the accusations in the Sunday Times ’ article… “ Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs ” by Foreign and Commonwealth Office is licensed under CC BY

There’s a temptation to panic when, like most key players in the newspaper business, profits start heading through the floor. I’m not saying that that is what the Sunday Times did to the UK government yesterday because I’ve not read the rest of the piece.
But as I noted on Friday, beyond certain magazines like The Economist (which is actually having a good #Covid19 war) the press generally is struggling to report a complex, dynamic (and largely at this stage unfathomable) situation.
In Conservative Home David Gaulke makes an important observation of the news industry (and not only in the UK):
“…the most prevalent media bias is the bias in favour of news. Something new must be happening. Restrictions should be tightened. Or…relaxed. They certainly shouldn’t just stay the same, because that wouldn’t be news. And the nation demands news.”
Except, that it probably doesn’t. Or, I should say, it doesn’t right now. One of my older kids is a nurse who (unlike her old da) has very little time for politics or the media, now listens (unlike her old da) religiously to the government press briefings.
Each day she hears desperate journalists for clear answers to the same questions spokesmen couldn’t answer the day before. This is stenography as journalism, which is not intended to inform but to enrage by selling our own stereotypes back to us.
Or as Terry Pratchett once said, “what people think they want is news, but what they really crave is olds.” Anyhoo, here’s the government’s ‘fisking’ response to the accusations in the Sunday Times’ article…
“Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs” by Foreign and Commonwealth Office is licensed under CC BY


sluggerotoole--2020-04-21--COVID-19 Spread In Both Irelands, the UK and Selected Countries: Early clusters difficult to flatten

COVID-19 Spread In Both Irelands, the UK and Selected Countries: Early clusters difficult to flatten:

The COVID-19 cases for April 20th have been used to draw two maps : one showing the rate of incidence of counties and councils relative to their jurisdictional average , and the other showing the rate of change over the April 15-20 period .
The ‘ rate of incidence ’ map shows essentially the same pattern as did the earlier two maps ( for April 9/10 and April 15 ) .
Once a county or council got off to a bad start with respect to the number of cases , it seems extremely difficult to reduce such clusters : Cavan @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , ‘ low rate ’ counties or councils ( such as Wexford and Fermanagh & Omagh ) are keeping their ranking .
Lessons can be learned from this for future disease outbreaks .
Health authorities need to ask themselves : what went wrong in Cavan , greater Dublin and greater Belfast ?
and what went right ( or less wrong ) in Wexford and Fermanagh & Omagh ?
Fermanagh touches Cavan , and Wexford has one of Ireland ’ s biggest ports .
So it is simplistic to state that ( a ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ relatively safe , and ( b ) COVID-19 pathways into Ireland followed transport routes ( Rosslare has ferry routes to UK and France , two ‘ high-COVID-19 ’ countries ) .
Are there hospital , GP or nursing home governance practices in Wexford and Fermanagh & Omagh that are significantly higher quality than in less fortunate counties and councils ?
The rate of increase map shows much more variation in RoI than in NI .
Perhaps this is due to the terribly high death rates in selected nursing homes in the South ?
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ RoI is being carried out at varying degrees of intensity across different counties ?
The situation looks very worrying for Cavan : a significantly higher COVID-19 rate of incidence to begin with now being compounded by a high rate of change .
No wonder it gets redder with every new map .
It could be the worst-affected county or council by April 25th .
The NISRA figures of April 17th ( figure 3 , page 4 ) imply that NI COVID-19-related deaths are 33 % higher compared to the PHA deaths figures .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s deaths seem to be roughly where one would expect , given NI ’ s share of the island ’ s population .
Both UK and RoI have seen their relative rankings decline since March 28th for deaths per million of the population for countries with a population of more than 300,000 .
The UK has moved from ninth-worst to fifth-worst , whilst the RoI has gone from 15th to 9th .
Austria ( 13th to 16th ) , Iran ( 6th to 14th ) and Denmark ( 10th to 13th ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ learn from these countries : ( i ) to prepare for the next pandemic , and ( ii ) to mitigate the current pandemic ?
Thankfully , the percentage daily change for cumulative cases and deaths for NI , RoI , Uk and the World do seem to be on a significant decline .
Further details , and many more graphs can be found at my COVIDWATCH webpage .

The COVID-19 cases for April 20th have been used to draw two maps: one showing the rate of incidence of counties and councils relative to their jurisdictional average, and the other showing the rate of change over the April 15-20 period.
The ‘rate of incidence’ map shows essentially the same pattern as did the earlier two maps (for April 9/10 and April 15). Once a county or council got off to a bad start with respect to the number of cases, it seems extremely difficult to reduce such clusters: Cavan being a case in point. Conversely, ‘low rate’ counties or councils (such as Wexford and Fermanagh & Omagh) are keeping their ranking.
Lessons can be learned from this for future disease outbreaks. Health authorities need to ask themselves: what went wrong in Cavan, greater Dublin and greater Belfast? and what went right (or less wrong) in Wexford and Fermanagh & Omagh? Fermanagh touches Cavan, and Wexford has one of Ireland’s biggest ports. So it is simplistic to state that (a) ‘small-town’ mostly rural counties/councils are relatively safe, and (b) COVID-19 pathways into Ireland followed transport routes (Rosslare has ferry routes to UK and France, two ‘high-COVID-19’ countries). Are there hospital, GP or nursing home governance practices in Wexford and Fermanagh & Omagh that are significantly higher quality than in less fortunate counties and councils?
The rate of increase map shows much more variation in RoI than in NI. Perhaps this is due to the terribly high death rates in selected nursing homes in the South? Or perhaps the rate of testing in RoI is being carried out at varying degrees of intensity across different counties? The situation looks very worrying for Cavan: a significantly higher COVID-19 rate of incidence to begin with now being compounded by a high rate of change. No wonder it gets redder with every new map. It could be the worst-affected county or council by April 25th.
The NISRA figures of April 17th (figure 3, page 4) imply that NI COVID-19-related deaths are 33% higher compared to the PHA deaths figures. Even with this factored in, NI’s deaths seem to be roughly where one would expect, given NI’s share of the island’s population.
Both UK and RoI have seen their relative rankings decline since March 28th for deaths per million of the population for countries with a population of more than 300,000. The UK has moved from ninth-worst to fifth-worst, whilst the RoI has gone from 15th to 9th. Austria (13th to 16th), Iran (6th to 14th) and Denmark (10th to 13th) have improved significantly. What can we learn from these countries: (i) to prepare for the next pandemic, and (ii) to mitigate the current pandemic?
Thankfully, the percentage daily change for cumulative cases and deaths for NI, RoI, Uk and the World do seem to be on a significant decline.
Further details, and many more graphs can be found at my COVIDWATCH webpage.


sluggerotoole--2020-04-21--Northern Ireland is Caught in a Low-Level Equilibrium Trap…

In the 1950 ’ s US economist Richard Nelson , who later became an advisor to President Kennedy , asked why underdeveloped economies failed to improve .
His answer , published in 1956 , was the low- level equilibrium trap .
The theory suggests that poor countries , with low wages and profits , can ’ t afford to invest so growth is slow .
As the economy gradually expands average wealth per person improves .
However marginal increases in prosperity also increase population .
As more people come onto the labour force the average wealth per person declines and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ population / workforce .
The cycle then repeats itself and the economy remains trapped at a low level of equilibrium .
So , what has this got to do with Northern Ireland ?
Well unfortunately there is a similar dynamic at play .
We are a low wage , low growth economy , trapped at this low level of equilibrium while the rest of the UK and Ireland powers ahead .
To illustrate what I mean lets first look at our output .
A few months ago , the Office for National Statistics @ @ @ @ @ @ @ found that N Ireland was the only one of 12 UK regions where real GDP declined , falling 0.5 % since 2017 while the rest of the UK increased by 1.4 % .
According to NISRA our gross value added per head is only 78.7 % of the UK figure , down from 81.1 % in 2017 .
There is no doubt that Northern Ireland operates at a low level , and while there have been some positives in recent years ’ we delude ourselves if we think these illustrate the success of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ reality is that the income gap with the rest of the UK is getting worse every year .
Figures on the ONS website going back to 1998 – to the start of what was supposed to be the economic dividend of the Peace Process – tell the same story of relative decline .
And as for the Republic of Ireland ?
Well it ’ s difficult to get a like for like comparison with ONS data , but both the World Bank and IMF rank the Republic as the fourth highest GDP per @ @ @ @ @ @ @ there are distortions caused by global companies headquartered in Dublin , it is no exaggeration to say that the average person south of the border is at least twice as rich as the average person north of the border .
What is causing such poor performance and what steps does N Ireland need to take to improve ?
There are many factors , ranging from poor productivity , low and poorly targeted capital investment , and a dysfunctional regional government – for more evidence on the latter see my previous post https : @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to the level of firms and individuals themselves .
In a research document published in 2017 , Paul Mac Flynn from NERI looked at the issue in relation to skills – which is the key that unlocks higher productivity and wages .
Northern Ireland already suffers from well-known problems , including the 16.6 % of adults – twice the UK average – who have no skills qualification at all ( NISRA , 2017 ) .
At the other end of the spectrum we suffer a high level of brain-drain as our most talented @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Mr Mac Flynn also highlighted that low skills in the workforce are matched by low demand for skills from organisations .
Survey data suggests that both employees and employers have broadly accepted this equilibrium and have little incentive to change .
This is an important insight because when you are in an equilibrium trap there is no easy way out .
For example , from an employer point of view firms can not move up the value chain because the skills are not there – any attempt to invest in higher value @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Workers in turn do not invest in skills because they will not be rewarded with higher paid employment – any attempt to better themselves will simply create a skills surplus .
Northern Ireland is caught in a low skills and therefore low productivity and low wage economy .
The Northern Ireland Executive has at least recognised there is a problem and have invested in a number of programmes guided by a 10-year strategy “ Skills for Success ” launched in 2011 .
Unfortunately , the strategy has asked the wrong questions and made @ @ @ @ @ @ @ For example , all four strategic goals focus exclusively on supply side issues ( i.e .
improving employee skills ) not demand side problems ( i.e .
lack of demand for skills from employers and lack of company investment in higher value activity ) .
The strategy has not been implemented consistently , so its core mission to increase workforce skills is far from certain .
However , even if skills improve this will not magically create higher paid jobs or more complex export products and services .
The outcome will simply be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ turn prompt highly trained workers to leave Northern Ireland in order to seek higher value employment .
Moving to a higher level of equilibrium is challenging and the solution may require a level of existential change that is beyond Northern Ireland ’ s limited capacity to deliver .
It will certainly need to start with a massive programme of sustained investment ( what some economists refer to as “ the big push ” ) .
This programme needs to impact both supply side and demand side issues , which requires effective co-ordination between @ @ @ @ @ @ @ labour ( trade unions or works councils ) .
A top down Departmental solution is unlikely to succeed .
In addition , the economy does not act as a single unit but as a complex agglomeration of activity , so a properly executed skills strategy can not take a one size fits all approach .
It requires segmentation and strategic choices – for example looking at higher value sectors and geographical areas .
Concentrating on financial services in Belfast might be a good start , while the wider knowledge economy and high growth @ @ @ @ @ @ @ And because equality is fundamental to the overall success of society , we must also put in place effective programmes to reduce the high level of our workforce with no measurable skills at all .
The next 10-year skills strategy from 2021 -2030 is currently in preparation .
Now would be a good time to ask the right questions and reflect deeply on how we release Northern Ireland from the trap that we are in .
“ Unstable equilibrium ” by ManelTor is licensed under CC BY

In the 1950’s US economist Richard Nelson, who later became an advisor to President Kennedy, asked why underdeveloped economies failed to improve. His answer, published in 1956, was the low- level equilibrium trap.
The theory suggests that poor countries, with low wages and profits, can’t afford to invest so growth is slow. As the economy gradually expands average wealth per person improves. However marginal increases in prosperity also increase population. As more people come onto the labour force the average wealth per person declines and a return to subsistence living reduces the population / workforce. The cycle then repeats itself and the economy remains trapped at a low level of equilibrium.
So, what has this got to do with Northern Ireland? Well unfortunately there is a similar dynamic at play. We are a low wage, low growth economy, trapped at this low level of equilibrium while the rest of the UK and Ireland powers ahead.
To illustrate what I mean lets first look at our output. A few months ago, the Office for National Statistics released the 2018 regional results. These found that N Ireland was the only one of 12 UK regions where real GDP declined, falling 0.5% since 2017 while the rest of the UK increased by 1.4%. According to NISRA our gross value added per head is only 78.7% of the UK figure, down from 81.1% in 2017.
There is no doubt that Northern Ireland operates at a low level, and while there have been some positives in recent years’ we delude ourselves if we think these illustrate the success of the region as a whole. The reality is that the income gap with the rest of the UK is getting worse every year. Figures on the ONS website going back to 1998 – to the start of what was supposed to be the economic dividend of the Peace Process – tell the same story of relative decline.
And as for the Republic of Ireland? Well it’s difficult to get a like for like comparison with ONS data, but both the World Bank and IMF rank the Republic as the fourth highest GDP per capita in the world. And although there are distortions caused by global companies headquartered in Dublin, it is no exaggeration to say that the average person south of the border is at least twice as rich as the average person north of the border.
What is causing such poor performance and what steps does N Ireland need to take to improve? There are many factors, ranging from poor productivity, low and poorly targeted capital investment, and a dysfunctional regional government – for more evidence on the latter see my previous post https://sluggerotoole.com/2020/04/14/no-change-is-not-an-option/
But this issue goes beyond government to the level of firms and individuals themselves. In a research document published in 2017, Paul Mac Flynn from NERI looked at the issue in relation to skills – which is the key that unlocks higher productivity and wages.
Northern Ireland already suffers from well-known problems, including the 16.6% of adults – twice the UK average – who have no skills qualification at all (NISRA, 2017). At the other end of the spectrum we suffer a high level of brain-drain as our most talented students leave for better prospects. However, Mr Mac Flynn also highlighted that low skills in the workforce are matched by low demand for skills from organisations. Survey data suggests that both employees and employers have broadly accepted this equilibrium and have little incentive to change.
This is an important insight because when you are in an equilibrium trap there is no easy way out. For example, from an employer point of view firms cannot move up the value chain because the skills are not there – any attempt to invest in higher value work simply creates a skills deficit. Workers in turn do not invest in skills because they will not be rewarded with higher paid employment – any attempt to better themselves will simply create a skills surplus. Northern Ireland is caught in a low skills and therefore low productivity and low wage economy.
Credit: Paul Mac Flynn, adapted from Green et al (2003).
The Northern Ireland Executive has at least recognised there is a problem and have invested in a number of programmes guided by a 10-year strategy “Skills for Success” launched in 2011.
Unfortunately, the strategy has asked the wrong questions and made inaccurate assumptions about what is required. For example, all four strategic goals focus exclusively on supply side issues (i.e. improving employee skills) not demand side problems (i.e. lack of demand for skills from employers and lack of company investment in higher value activity). The strategy has not been implemented consistently, so its core mission to increase workforce skills is far from certain. However, even if skills improve this will not magically create higher paid jobs or more complex export products and services. The outcome will simply be a skills surplus, which will in turn prompt highly trained workers to leave Northern Ireland in order to seek higher value employment.
Moving to a higher level of equilibrium is challenging and the solution may require a level of existential change that is beyond Northern Ireland’s limited capacity to deliver. It will certainly need to start with a massive programme of sustained investment (what some economists refer to as “the big push”). This programme needs to impact both supply side and demand side issues, which requires effective co-ordination between government, academia, business, and labour (trade unions or works councils). A top down Departmental solution is unlikely to succeed.
In addition, the economy does not act as a single unit but as a complex agglomeration of activity, so a properly executed skills strategy cannot take a one size fits all approach. It requires segmentation and strategic choices – for example looking at higher value sectors and geographical areas. Concentrating on financial services in Belfast might be a good start, while the wider knowledge economy and high growth areas like tourism should also qualify. And because equality is fundamental to the overall success of society, we must also put in place effective programmes to reduce the high level of our workforce with no measurable skills at all.
The next 10-year skills strategy from 2021 -2030 is currently in preparation. Now would be a good time to ask the right questions and reflect deeply on how we release Northern Ireland from the trap that we are in.
“Unstable equilibrium” by ManelTor is licensed under CC BY