sluggerotoole--2020-12-19--Brexit. Roll on December 31st!

Brexit. Roll on December 31st!

After four and a half tedious years Brexit is finally just days away .
With or without a deal it finally seems we are leaving .
Before the referendum there was a lot of talking about the damage a vote for Brexit would cause .
We were told we would be plunged into a recession and become the runt of the European litter , it ’ s important to remember the predictions of doom were not just for when we actually left .
I clearly remember George Osborne , Ed Balls and Vince Cable standing in front of an aeroplane @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a vote to leave the economic crash would begin .
Of course it didn ’ t and by more or less every measure the economy and this country ’ s prosperity kept growing .
The fear of Brexit didn ’ t send investors and industries fleeing as we were told it would .
During the last week or so Brexit has been back in the news with the end of the transition period approaching fast .
For the last year we have been subject to European rules without any say ( nothing new @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to be free to make our own laws , regulate ( or deregulate ) our own industries and choose who catches our fish .
Every time I open the BBC news app I see a new prediction of doom , so far these have included us no longer being able to holiday in Europe , no longer being able to eat soft cheeses and of course causing unspeakable damage to the economy .
There is little doubt in anyone ’ s mind that Brexit will impact the economy , change always does and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to the new arrangements .
Hopefully there is a deal but if there is not , export tariffs will be offset by imports and business will adapt as it has always done .
However what bewilders me is that the slew of people we now see kicking off about how Brexit is going to ruin the economy and our lives have been silent for the last nine months .
For the last nine months the government has been printing money en-mass and shutting down entire industries , storing up all sorts of future @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sleeping for nine months , they don ’ t understand basic economics or they don ’ t really care about the economy at all and just want a smoking gun to aim at Brexit .
I suspect for most people it ’ s the third option but for some it might be all three !
I am not saying that all Brexit critics should have been lockdown skeptics but to not even question the money tree economics of 2020 is telling .
I hope I ’ m wrong but let me make my @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Brexit will happen deal or no deal , this may or may not affect the economy .
Any impact will be short term , minor and hard to measure in the midst of a much larger recession .
In March furlough will wind up , millions of people will find no job to return to as their employers have at best made cuts or at worst gone under due to the absence of revenue for months .
Unemployment will shoot up .
By spring enough people will have been vaccinated for a bit @ @ @ @ @ @ @ shops , restaurants and cafes and all the printed money currently piled in peoples bank accounts will begin to flow around the economy and inflation will take hold .
Peoples savings will be diminished as your money becomes less valuable , poverty will increase .
Once this has all happened I can almost guarantee that some people and probably many will turn around and say- look at the damage Brexit has caused !
We can ’ t let this happen ; we can ’ t let a true economic crisis be mixed up @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sovereignty and freedom .
What frustrates me the most is when self righteous politicians appear , as Alistair Campbell did on Politics Live and declare ‘ THIS IS NOT WHAT THE PEOPLE VOTED FOR.
’ – Yes it is .
Those who struck for freedom on the 23rd June 2016 were well aware of the risk ; they were berated for months with predictions of ruin , that Brexit meant wallowing in poverty for the rest of time without the nurturing love of the ever benevolent European Union .
They choose not to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ they decided the risk was worth it , they saw what was possible looking beyond the shores of Europe to the world as they knew being shackled to an economic block in decline did not make economic sense .
I believe them to be right , they may not be but to suggest they didn ’ t understand or know what Brexit meant and the potential consequences is deeply offensive .
We should be confident about the future of the UK as an independent nation .
It is time for people to stop @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the EU and for the greatest democratic exercise of our lifetime to be honored .
Roll on December 31st !

After four and a half tedious years Brexit is finally just days away. With or without a deal it finally seems we are leaving.
Before the referendum there was a lot of talking about the damage a vote for Brexit would cause. We were told we would be plunged into a recession and become the runt of the European litter, it’s important to remember the predictions of doom were not just for when we actually left. I clearly remember George Osborne, Ed Balls and Vince Cable standing in front of an aeroplane and telling us that the day after a vote to leave the economic crash would begin. Of course it didn’t and by more or less every measure the economy and this country’s prosperity kept growing. The fear of Brexit didn’t send investors and industries fleeing as we were told it would.
During the last week or so Brexit has been back in the news with the end of the transition period approaching fast. For the last year we have been subject to European rules without any say (nothing new) and now finally we are going to be free to make our own laws, regulate (or deregulate) our own industries and choose who catches our fish. Every time I open the BBC news app I see a new prediction of doom, so far these have included us no longer being able to holiday in Europe, no longer being able to eat soft cheeses and of course causing unspeakable damage to the economy.
There is little doubt in anyone’s mind that Brexit will impact the economy, change always does and there will be a period of adapting to the new arrangements. Hopefully there is a deal but if there is not, export tariffs will be offset by imports and business will adapt as it has always done. However what bewilders me is that the slew of people we now see kicking off about how Brexit is going to ruin the economy and our lives have been silent for the last nine months. For the last nine months the government has been printing money en-mass and shutting down entire industries, storing up all sorts of future problems. Now either they have been sleeping for nine months, they don’t understand basic economics or they don’t really care about the economy at all and just want a smoking gun to aim at Brexit. I suspect for most people it’s the third option but for some it might be all three! I am not saying that all Brexit critics should have been lockdown skeptics but to not even question the money tree economics of 2020 is telling.
I hope I’m wrong but let me make my prediction for the next few months. Brexit will happen deal or no deal, this may or may not affect the economy. Any impact will be short term, minor and hard to measure in the midst of a much larger recession. In March furlough will wind up, millions of people will find no job to return to as their employers have at best made cuts or at worst gone under due to the absence of revenue for months. Unemployment will shoot up. By spring enough people will have been vaccinated for a bit of normality and people will fill the shops, restaurants and cafes and all the printed money currently piled in peoples bank accounts will begin to flow around the economy and inflation will take hold. Peoples savings will be diminished as your money becomes less valuable, poverty will increase. Once this has all happened I can almost guarantee that some people and probably many will turn around and say- look at the damage Brexit has caused! We can’t let this happen; we can’t let a true economic crisis be mixed up with a people’s will for sovereignty and freedom.
What frustrates me the most is when self righteous politicians appear, as Alistair Campbell did on Politics Live and declare ‘THIS IS NOT WHAT THE PEOPLE VOTED FOR.’ – Yes it is. Those who struck for freedom on the 23rd June 2016 were well aware of the risk; they were berated for months with predictions of ruin, that Brexit meant wallowing in poverty for the rest of time without the nurturing love of the ever benevolent European Union. They choose not to listen to those mongerers of doom, they decided the risk was worth it, they saw what was possible looking beyond the shores of Europe to the world as they knew being shackled to an economic block in decline did not make economic sense. I believe them to be right, they may not be but to suggest they didn’t understand or know what Brexit meant and the potential consequences is deeply offensive.
We should be confident about the future of the UK as an independent nation. It is time for people to stop grovelling for reasons to roll over to the EU and for the greatest democratic exercise of our lifetime to be honored. Roll on December 31st!


sluggerotoole--2020-12-19--Throwing a Scammer in the Works…

Throwing a Scammer in the Works…

I ’ m sure many of you have received an unsolicited phone call asking about that alleged car crash you were supposedly involved in ( or Microsoft ( allegedly ) telling you you ’ ve got a bug on your PC that needs fixing ) or an email from someone asking you to deposit a large sum of money into your account – or a message purporting to be from your bank , HMRC or Netflix – with numerous spelling and punctuation mistakes , upper and lower case letters in the wrong places , and in some cases written in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ change your log-in password .
I once even received an email in Irish asking me to take care of a large sum of money which was to be deposited into my account .
The level of grammar was appalling though and it had quite clearly been written with the unreliable help of Google Translate .
Then there was the email from “ Amzon Prim ” ( sic ) email advising me that I needed to update my account otherwise it would be blocked “ forever ” – and they very helpfully sent me @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I was baffled as to why someone from a huge multi-national tech giant would be using a Gmail account to send out customer emails .
By the way I didn ’ t click on the link .
Over the past year I must have received about two dozen phone calls where the caller wanted to know about my “ accident ” .
One on occasion the caller introduced himself as “ John Taylor ” from the so-called “ Road Traffic Compensation Bureau ” , but spoke with quite a strong Indian accent .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ assume that he wasn ’ t the same John Taylor as the former MP who now styles himself as Lord Kilclooney .
I ’ m also sure that the caller was unaware of the irony , given his namesake ’ s history of politically incorrect remarks on social media about people of Asian origin .
I had this “ Mr Taylor ” on the phone for about ten minutes during which I gave lurid details of the alleged car crash .
He asked me if I ’ d received any compensation .
I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , but was turned down .
When he asked me why , I explained ( with tongue firmly in cheek ) that it was because the solicitors I was dealing with weren ’ t real solicitors but were in fact scammers from a call centre who ’ d try to swindle me out of a large sum of money .
At this point I expected him to catch on and hang up on me .
But surprisingly he continued with his spiel – which I ’ m sure was well scripted .
He @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Do you want my name ?
” I asked just to make sure I ’ d understood him correctly .
“ Is it my name you want ?
” I repeated just to be doubly sure .
“ YES !
” he responded , now sounding a little impatient .
“ So you want my name then ?
” “ YES !
!
!
!
” came Mr Taylor ’ s response , this time even more impatient , and now a little agitated .
I explained that as I had quite an @ @ @ @ @ @ @ out for him .
But then instead of giving out my real name I spelt out a very rude word .
Very slowly of course .
There was a brief pause , after which “ John Taylor ” in an angry voice invited me to do something physically impossible to myself .
Not surprisingly he then hung up .
Now some of you out there may be thinking “ yer man ’ s got a bit too much time on his hands ” – but you can ’ t beat the satisfaction of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lose the rag after they ’ ve finally twigged that you ’ ve just taken them for a ride and wasted several minutes of their time .
In any case now that so many of us are working from home these days and missing out on the office banter and the Christmas parties , and can ’ t go to the pub , small distractions like this are often welcome !
It would probably be an exaggeration and come across as somewhat self-righteous to say that we have a civic duty to waste @ @ @ @ @ @ @ time as possible to stop them from trying to scam others .
So I won ’ t say it !
However , the sad fact is that many vulnerable people have lost large sums of money after having fallen victim to such instances of fraud , as documented in a recent BBC Panorama episode .
Rarely are the perpetrators brought to justice , mainly because they usually operate in a different jurisdiction to where their targets are located .
But this recent news story from the USA where a con artist received a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ $ 8.97m back to his victims proves that scams don ’ t always pay .
Scammers and con artists have been around since time immemorial .
And they ’ ll be around for a long time yet .
But as technology advances the methods change .
In the early days of the internet when it was like a virtual Wild West the art of scam-baiting was a minor niche pastime practiced almost exclusively by a small group of tech-savvy people .
Now it ’ s become a profitable industry providing a wealth of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ areas such as cybersecurity and data protection .
There are numerous videos on Youtube ( other multi-media apps are available ) which show scammers being humiliated over the phone by experienced baiters .
In some cases the tables are turned when the intended victims make victims out of their would-be scammers by logging remotely onto their IT systems and deleting all their files .
The BBC Panorama episode as referred to above even documented an impressive feat where a prominent Northern Irish scambaiter who uses the pseudonym “ Jim Browning ” was able @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of a call centre responsible for serial scamming activities and actually see the people he was talking to .
There ’ s no denying in this case that these online vigilantes are providing a valuable service to society .
It ’ s at commercially opportunistic times of the year like Christmas , as well as in times of crisis ( and therefore opportunity ) – for example like the Covid pandemic or Brexit – when scammers are at their most active .
I know it ’ s a cliché to say this , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be true it almost certainly isn ’ t true !
Photo by Alexas_Fotos is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA

I’m sure many of you have received an unsolicited phone call asking about that alleged car crash you were supposedly involved in (or Microsoft (allegedly) telling you you’ve got a bug on your PC that needs fixing) or an email from someone asking you to deposit a large sum of money into your account – or a message purporting to be from your bank, HMRC or Netflix – with numerous spelling and punctuation mistakes, upper and lower case letters in the wrong places, and in some cases written in the wrong language – asking you to change your log-in password.
I once even received an email in Irish asking me to take care of a large sum of money which was to be deposited into my account. The level of grammar was appalling though and it had quite clearly been written with the unreliable help of Google Translate.
Then there was the email from “Amzon Prim” (sic) email advising me that I needed to update my account otherwise it would be blocked “forever” – and they very helpfully sent me a link to click on. But I was baffled as to why someone from a huge multi-national tech giant would be using a Gmail account to send out customer emails. By the way I didn’t click on the link.
Over the past year I must have received about two dozen phone calls where the caller wanted to know about my “accident”. One on occasion the caller introduced himself as “John Taylor” from the so-called “Road Traffic Compensation Bureau”, but spoke with quite a strong Indian accent. I think it’s safe to assume that he wasn’t the same John Taylor as the former MP who now styles himself as Lord Kilclooney. I’m also sure that the caller was unaware of the irony, given his namesake’s history of politically incorrect remarks on social media about people of Asian origin.
I had this “Mr Taylor” on the phone for about ten minutes during which I gave lurid details of the alleged car crash.
He asked me if I’d received any compensation. I said I’d applied for it, but was turned down. When he asked me why, I explained (with tongue firmly in cheek) that it was because the solicitors I was dealing with weren’t real solicitors but were in fact scammers from a call centre who’d try to swindle me out of a large sum of money. At this point I expected him to catch on and hang up on me. But surprisingly he continued with his spiel – which I’m sure was well scripted.
He then asked me my name.
“Do you want my name?” I asked just to make sure I’d understood him correctly.
“Yes”
“Is it my name you want?” I repeated just to be doubly sure.
“YES!” he responded, now sounding a little impatient.
“So you want my name then?”
“YES!!!!” came Mr Taylor’s response, this time even more impatient, and now a little agitated.
I explained that as I had quite an unusual name, I would spell it out for him. But then instead of giving out my real name I spelt out a very rude word. Very slowly of course.
There was a brief pause, after which “John Taylor” in an angry voice invited me to do something physically impossible to myself. Not surprisingly he then hung up.
Now some of you out there may be thinking “yer man’s got a bit too much time on his hands” – but you can’t beat the satisfaction of winding up the scammers and hearing them lose the rag after they’ve finally twigged that you’ve just taken them for a ride and wasted several minutes of their time. In any case now that so many of us are working from home these days and missing out on the office banter and the Christmas parties, and can’t go to the pub, small distractions like this are often welcome!
It would probably be an exaggeration and come across as somewhat self-righteous to say that we have a civic duty to waste as much of these people’s time as possible to stop them from trying to scam others. So I won’t say it!
However, the sad fact is that many vulnerable people have lost large sums of money after having fallen victim to such instances of fraud, as documented in a recent BBC Panorama episode. Rarely are the perpetrators brought to justice, mainly because they usually operate in a different jurisdiction to where their targets are located. But this recent news story from the USA where a con artist received a lengthy jail sentence and was ordered to $8.97m back to his victims proves that scams don’t always pay.
Scammers and con artists have been around since time immemorial. And they’ll be around for a long time yet. But as technology advances the methods change.
In the early days of the internet when it was like a virtual Wild West the art of scam-baiting was a minor niche pastime practiced almost exclusively by a small group of tech-savvy people. Now it’s become a profitable industry providing a wealth of opportunity for those with skills in related areas such as cybersecurity and data protection. There are numerous videos on Youtube (other multi-media apps are available) which show scammers being humiliated over the phone by experienced baiters. In some cases the tables are turned when the intended victims make victims out of their would-be scammers by logging remotely onto their IT systems and deleting all their files.
The BBC Panorama episode as referred to above even documented an impressive feat where a prominent Northern Irish scambaiter who uses the pseudonym “Jim Browning” was able to log into the CCTV camera system of a call centre responsible for serial scamming activities and actually see the people he was talking to.
There’s no denying in this case that these online vigilantes are providing a valuable service to society.
It’s at commercially opportunistic times of the year like Christmas, as well as in times of crisis (and therefore opportunity) – for example like the Covid pandemic or Brexit – when scammers are at their most active. I know it’s a cliché to say this, but if something sounds too good to be true it almost certainly isn’t true!
Stay safe and be alert.
Photo by Alexas_Fotos is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA


sluggerotoole--2020-12-20--A Christmas Bee and Earwax Candles…

A Christmas Bee and Earwax Candles…

My two hives are quiet , they ’ re like damp , derelict buildings .
Winter is a constant cycle of helpless concern for beekeepers .
Several times a week I put my coat on and take a hot cup of coffee outside and watch until I drink my cup dry .
If I ’ m lucky I see at least one bee return to a hive .
A single bee is enough to reassure me that a colony is still alive and I go happily about my life for another day or two .
If I see no sign @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ear against the side of each hive and strain to hear the hopeful buzz from the nests inside .
But I only ever hear traffic noise from the road beyond against the feel of the damp timber on my ear .
That ’ s when fear digs her sharp nails into my shoulder and I worry they ’ ve all died , my precious bees .
It ’ s difficult to pull positives out of these dark , wet , locked-down days .
Daylight is brief , the last blooms are gone , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with no flesh .
I think of the bulbs I planted in September , hunkered down in the cold dark earth growing incrementally and waiting for spring .
It helps , everyday might seem the same but it ’ s not .
Nature never stops moving forward and she never looks back .
I planted some leftover hyacinths into pots in the kitchen and they ’ re starting to bloom already .
It must be the heat and there ’ s plenty of light .
Every day they grow a little taller .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ violet blue .
They ’ re a floral antidote to the heavy grey clouds outside that hold threatening rain all day or release it at a moment ’ s notice .
In a few weeks ’ time the countdown to spring can truly begin .
The snowdrops I planted will be out for my bees to forage from on a mild January day .
The earth will begin its turn and tilt towards the sun and another winter will be behind us .
It helps to keep that thought alive on a dreich @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I made my first candles , it takes eight times as much energy for a bee to make wax than it does to make honey , however my candles ’ colour is more like earwax than beeswax !
Secreted wax is a pale vanilla colour but once it has held brood , pollen or nectar it becomes discoloured and is various shades of brown .
The filtration process takes out the debris but it doesn ’ t improve the colour .
I decided not to add anything to make them more palatable to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ like me without the hair dye .
When they burn they remind me of inside a hive ; waxy , honey , floral , clean and happy .
Their scent puts me inside my suit on a warm summer day with my bees flying about , the colony strong and full of forage and everything feeling right in the world .
When I burn a candle it keeps a pocket of that alive inside me .
The light from a beeswax candle is the same spectrum as the sun – who doesn ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ winter days ?
I wonder if , subconsciously , my body knows this because I find myself pulled towards their flame ; hypnotic in its light – more golden than the rest .
A beeswax candle gives off negative ions that purify the air .
There is no lingering scent , but perhaps it ’ s the absence of scent that I notice .
The air ’ s rejuvenated , without the aroma of food , family or dogs left suspended in it .
I didn ’ t think it was possible to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ wrong , the delight of their candles has brightened up each December day for me .
No wonder ancient man revered these tiny insects and considered them messengers from God .
They are as magical as an elf at Christmas .
Everyone has got in the Christmas spirit early this year , hoping that its cheer will be an antidote to lockdown frustration .
Every December we buy a misshapen Christmas tree from our local greengrocer and each year it stands in the same windowed corner of our living room .
If its @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on the seating arrangement and two armchairs are moved forward , so as not to crush its bushy branches .
It ’ s festooned with a mixture of decorations curated from places we ’ ve been .
A tour of its branches is a walk through our family ’ s fifteen Christmases .
A special addition last year was my Christmas bee .
I found her in a bookshop in Belfast .
An unusual item for a Christmas tree decoration .
But there she was .
A singular bee among the other ‘ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ stripped felt body is bright yellow and black .
Her wings are white , she has large friendly cartoon eyes and a huge , wide red-lipped smile .
I ’ ve never put a tree up when the calender is still in the single digits of December but this year , as we know , nothing is ‘ normal.
’ On 5th December our premature lockdown tree went up .
I ’ ve hung my joyful Christmas bee front and centre of it .
She hails the promise of another year ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ talisman dangling between the twinkling lights .
The thought gives me a sweet hexagonal glow inside .
Photo by PollyDot is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA

My two hives are quiet, they’re like damp, derelict buildings. Winter is a constant cycle of helpless concern for beekeepers. Several times a week I put my coat on and take a hot cup of coffee outside and watch until I drink my cup dry. If I’m lucky I see at least one bee return to a hive. A single bee is enough to reassure me that a colony is still alive and I go happily about my life for another day or two. If I see no sign of bee life sometimes I put my ear against the side of each hive and strain to hear the hopeful buzz from the nests inside. But I only ever hear traffic noise from the road beyond against the feel of the damp timber on my ear. That’s when fear digs her sharp nails into my shoulder and I worry they’ve all died, my precious bees.
It’s difficult to pull positives out of these dark, wet, locked-down days. Daylight is brief, the last blooms are gone, trees are wooden skeletons all bare branches with no flesh. I think of the bulbs I planted in September, hunkered down in the cold dark earth growing incrementally and waiting for spring. It helps, everyday might seem the same but it’s not. Nature never stops moving forward and she never looks back. I planted some leftover hyacinths into pots in the kitchen and they’re starting to bloom already. It must be the heat and there’s plenty of light. Every day they grow a little taller. The star shaped blooms are the palest violet blue. They’re a floral antidote to the heavy grey clouds outside that hold threatening rain all day or release it at a moment’s notice. In a few weeks’ time the countdown to spring can truly begin. The snowdrops I planted will be out for my bees to forage from on a mild January day. The earth will begin its turn and tilt towards the sun and another winter will be behind us. It helps to keep that thought alive on a dreich winter’s day.
Last week I made my first candles, it takes eight times as much energy for a bee to make wax than it does to make honey, however my candles’ colour is more like earwax than beeswax! Secreted wax is a pale vanilla colour but once it has held brood, pollen or nectar it becomes discoloured and is various shades of brown. The filtration process takes out the debris but it doesn’t improve the colour. I decided not to add anything to make them more palatable to the procuring eye, they’re like me without the hair dye. When they burn they remind me of inside a hive; waxy, honey, floral, clean and happy. Their scent puts me inside my suit on a warm summer day with my bees flying about, the colony strong and full of forage and everything feeling right in the world. When I burn a candle it keeps a pocket of that alive inside me.
The light from a beeswax candle is the same spectrum as the sun – who doesn’t need that during these darkest of winter days? I wonder if, subconsciously, my body knows this because I find myself pulled towards their flame; hypnotic in its light – more golden than the rest. A beeswax candle gives off negative ions that purify the air. There is no lingering scent, but perhaps it’s the absence of scent that I notice. The air’s rejuvenated, without the aroma of food, family or dogs left suspended in it. I didn’t think it was possible to fangirl my bees anymore but I was wrong, the delight of their candles has brightened up each December day for me. No wonder ancient man revered these tiny insects and considered them messengers from God. They are as magical as an elf at Christmas.
Everyone has got in the Christmas spirit early this year, hoping that its cheer will be an antidote to lockdown frustration. Every December we buy a misshapen Christmas tree from our local greengrocer and each year it stands in the same windowed corner of our living room. If its limbs are particularly unruly, it encroaches on the seating arrangement and two armchairs are moved forward, so as not to crush its bushy branches. It’s festooned with a mixture of decorations curated from places we’ve been. A tour of its branches is a walk through our family’s fifteen Christmases. A special addition last year was my Christmas bee. I found her in a bookshop in Belfast. An unusual item for a Christmas tree decoration. But there she was. A singular bee among the other ‘normal’ Christmas paraphernalia. Her stodgy stripped felt body is bright yellow and black. Her wings are white, she has large friendly cartoon eyes and a huge, wide red-lipped smile. I’ve never put a tree up when the calender is still in the single digits of December but this year, as we know, nothing is ‘normal.’ On 5th December our premature lockdown tree went up. I’ve hung my joyful Christmas bee front and centre of it. She hails the promise of another year’s beekeeping ahead, she’s my talisman dangling between the twinkling lights. The thought gives me a sweet hexagonal glow inside.
Photo by PollyDot is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA


sluggerotoole--2020-12-20--Irish unity : going nowhere fast

Irish unity : going nowhere fast

So how ’ s the Irish reunification campaign coming along ?
According to Sinn Féin President , Mary Lou McDonald , there doesn ’ t need to be one , because it ’ s already been won .
A few days ago , speaking to Owen Jones , McDonald said of a United Ireland : ‘ We ’ ll do it in the next decade .
We ’ ll do it in this decade , actually.
’ This is an example of the nationalist equivalent of the ‘ inevitability doctrine ’ I wrote about a few months back .
In @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Unionist politicians assume middle-ground support for the union on the basis of several faulty assumptions , such as the idea that the middle classes really don ’ t want to have to pay for the fire brigade if their house burns down , or that they really badly want free access to a failing healthcare system .
Their nationalist counterparts seem to think that brexit and the EU have killed the union , that the debate is over ( apparently before it started ) and the middle ground votes needed to secure reunification @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not clear when exactly the interview with Jones was recorded , but it comes at the end of a difficult few weeks for the Sinn Féin surrounding controversial comments being made by certain TDs .
I don ’ t wish to relitigate those here , but if the Sinn Féin President is trying to use headline-grabbing remarks about the prospect of unity to distract the press from internal issues in her party , it implies a certain flippancy towards what an outside observer might reasonably expect to be her party ’ s primary @ @ @ @ @ @ @ much for their dedication to the cause if it is to be reduced to a handy way to distract members and the public from more difficult controversies .
Turning to the prediction that unity will happen within the decade , we should remember that assertions of this kind by republicans are nothing new ; they began following the onset of the troubles in the early 1970s .
The Provisional IRA used to tell its supporters that one last big heave would push the British out .
Later , in 1998 , Sinn Féin @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was a stepping stone to a united Ireland .
In 2000 , Gerry Adams predicted that reunification would happen by 2016 .
Martin McGuinness reiterated this in 2003 , practically echoing word for word the comments of McDonald nearly two decades later .
Like a far-out cult predicting the Rapture , it is clear that Irish republicans have an innate need to tell their support base that victory is imminent .
McDonald ’ s commentary on the timing of unity must therefore be seen not as a credible or insightful prediction of likely @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the dogma that she is expected to pay lip service to in her role .
It is , of course , none of my business how Sinn Féin sells itself to its activists and supporters .
But there are wider concerns associated with a political party telling people that the argument is over and has been won .
It sends the message that activists don ’ t have to do any difficult work , make any compromises or sell out any principles in order to reach their objective .
It also means that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to modify any aspect of its own platform or behaviour – after all , if victory has already been secured , why entertain the possibility that your own strategy might be failing ?
There are other aspects in which the overall message of complacency manifests itself .
While refusing to take action to tell its own base to prepare for unity , for example by explaining to supporters that there might be hard choices to face over healthcare or public spending , the party spends a great deal of effort insisting that others @ @ @ @ @ @ @ work .
Assisted by various astroturf front groups ( often characterised in the press as civic nationalists ) they constantly lobby the Irish government , the Taoiseach , and others , via open letters and petitions , to prepare for unity .
They are effectively demanding that the Irish government endorse the inevitability doctrine , while refusing to specify exactly what it is they think the government needs to do .
In a moment of spectacular hubris , Upper Bann MLA John O ’ Dowd , welcoming the victory of President-elect Biden , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ become a ‘ persuader for unity ’ .
Not only is t is a strange day when a party historically dedicated to Irish self-determination and sovereignty publicly calls for foreign interference in Irish political affairs , but it is interesting how even senior Sinn Féin elected representatives seek to outsource the work of persuasion , apparently – and perhaps subconsciously – conceding they are incapable of doing it themselves .
Continuing the theme around inevitability and complacency , another trait I ’ ve noticed in this debate is the assumption that outside factors @ @ @ @ @ @ @ deliver the unity outcome – the “ Hail Mary pass ” .
For as long as I can remember , republicans have believed that the RC birth rate would eventually put an end to the union .
This is telling , because it shows that those who advocate it believe that they will never be able to persuade Protestants to support reunification and they believe that Catholics will never be against it .
I wonder what Wolfe Tone would have made of this idea .
Lately , I have heard them say that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Scottish independence will make unity more likely .
Faced with difficult questions around the cost of implementing unity , they say that perhaps the British , the EU , the UN or the USA might chip in to help .
The overall theme is the same – unity is inevitable ; other people are expected to help make it happen ; and those who are being asked to vote for it will not be expected to face any hardship .
It ’ s not only Sinn Féin who suffer from this problem .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ up in the House of Commons and asked the Secretary of State to outline the criteria for calling a border poll .
Eastwood must have known that the UK government would not , and will never , answer this question .
He asked not to get an answer , but to play to the gallery who think that making demands of others without actually doing anything amounts to an active campaign .
So far , no nationalist appears to have publicly admitted that nationalists must do what the Scots did – they must @ @ @ @ @ @ @ either in an election or in the assembly , that the Secretary of State can not ignore .
That nationalism is unwilling to propose this suggests a lack of confidence , which is indicative of the deeper problem I am highlighting here .
All of this goes a long way to explaining why , four years after brexit , Irish nationalism has singularly failed to either launch a coherent Irish unity campaign , or to politically capitalise on brexit .
In Wales , support for Plaid Cymru has maintained roughly steady – of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ endorsement of independence , but a noticeable shift .
In Scotland , the SNP are below their historic peak vote share from 2015 , but are set to sweep the board at the next Scottish parliamentary election and are widely expected to push for a second Independence referendum , with almost every poll predicting that they will win it .
Yet , in Northern Ireland , Irish nationalism is sitting at 41 % , its vote share gradually and consistently falling to that point ever since the 45.4 % peak result it scored @ @ @ @ @ @ @ In the 2019 Westminster election , Sinn Féin not only handed back all the gains from their 2017 surge , but a further 2 percentage points , finding themselves at a 20-year low in terms of vote share .
Psychologically , nationalists seem to be trying to construct a political framework whereby campaigning for the thing they desire – unity – is somehow not their job .
They just have to wait around for the Irish government to act , or for Scottish independence to happen , or for the demographics to be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ mess up Brexit , or for Joe Biden to sweep in and fix it for them .
In the meantime they seem to content themselves with group therapy sessions where they congratulate themselves on all the “ work ” they are doing , talk about how great unity will be when it happens , how nice they ’ re going to be to to the British-identifying minority ( a few compliant examples are typically invited along to underpin the mutual back-slapping sessions ) , and how they ’ re going to correct all @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , of course , the generous assistance of the Irish taxpayer whose fulsome support is taken as read .
There are no serious discussions of compromises , costs , sacrifices or difficult decisions , because they tell themselves that there do not need to be any .
All of this creates danger for the long term future of the island of Ireland .
We can ’ t afford a brexit style , vote-first-and-ask-questions-later approach to unity .
Yet in lobbying for a quick border poll without it being underpinned first either by a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is exactly what Sinn Féin seem to be trying to do .
An Irish unity process which is decoupled from the parties which advocate unity within Northern Ireland is built on a foundation of sand , in the same way that the UK ’ s departure from the European Union is .
I can ’ t speak for everyone in the centre ground , but I can share my own perspective .
I have no problem with Irish unity , and I believe it can be made to work and work well .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ be bounced either into a border poll or a Yes vote by people who have no interest in going out on a limb for their values and who think they can take my support for granted and I will certainly not support any unity plan that is built on handouts .
But most importantly of all , I want to understand what the strategy nationalists will have to addressing community divisions post-reunification .
I want to see real proof that nationalism won ’ t allow the same mistakes that were made in 1920 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ into the constitution isn ’ t enough ; nationalism needs to go out of its way to demonstrate how the concerns of the Unionist minority will be facilitated ; how we will handle sensitive commemorations of the RUC , RIC , British Army and others , and how the British government will be have real , enforceable power to act as a guarantor for the rights and fair treatment of those who assert British citizenship .
All of this must form part of a blueprint which nationalist political parties within Northern Ireland must @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s not sufficient to hold the border poll first , brexit style , and see where the cards fall – this will destabilise the entire island of Ireland .
Rather than continuing to push for a border poll for a fantasy unity project , Northern nationalists must publish their detailed manifesto for a future Ireland .
“ Brexit : ‘ The DUP ’ s hardline policies could be the quickest road to a united Ireland ’ ” by “ Brexit : ‘ The DUP ’ s hardline policies could be the quickest @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is licensed under “ Brexit : ‘ The DUP ’ s hardline policies could be the quickest road to a united Ireland ’ “

So how’s the Irish reunification campaign coming along ?
According to Sinn Féin President, Mary Lou McDonald, there doesn’t need to be one, because it’s already been won. A few days ago, speaking to Owen Jones, McDonald said of a United Ireland : ‘We’ll do it in the next decade. We’ll do it in this decade, actually.’
This is an example of the nationalist equivalent of the ‘inevitability doctrine’ I wrote about a few months back. In my previous article, I noted how Unionist politicians assume middle-ground support for the union on the basis of several faulty assumptions, such as the idea that the middle classes really don’t want to have to pay for the fire brigade if their house burns down, or that they really badly want free access to a failing healthcare system. Their nationalist counterparts seem to think that brexit and the EU have killed the union, that the debate is over (apparently before it started) and the middle ground votes needed to secure reunification are in the bag.
It is not clear when exactly the interview with Jones was recorded, but it comes at the end of a difficult few weeks for the Sinn Féin surrounding controversial comments being made by certain TDs. I don’t wish to relitigate those here, but if the Sinn Féin President is trying to use headline-grabbing remarks about the prospect of unity to distract the press from internal issues in her party, it implies a certain flippancy towards what an outside observer might reasonably expect to be her party’s primary policy platform. It does not say much for their dedication to the cause if it is to be reduced to a handy way to distract members and the public from more difficult controversies.
Turning to the prediction that unity will happen within the decade, we should remember that assertions of this kind by republicans are nothing new; they began following the onset of the troubles in the early 1970s. The Provisional IRA used to tell its supporters that one last big heave would push the British out. Later, in 1998, Sinn Féin leaders said that the Good Friday Agreement was a stepping stone to a united Ireland. In 2000, Gerry Adams predicted that reunification would happen by 2016. Martin McGuinness reiterated this in 2003, practically echoing word for word the comments of McDonald nearly two decades later.
Like a far-out cult predicting the Rapture, it is clear that Irish republicans have an innate need to tell their support base that victory is imminent. McDonald’s commentary on the timing of unity must therefore be seen not as a credible or insightful prediction of likely events, but as a manifestation of the dogma that she is expected to pay lip service to in her role.
It is, of course, none of my business how Sinn Féin sells itself to its activists and supporters. But there are wider concerns associated with a political party telling people that the argument is over and has been won. It sends the message that activists don’t have to do any difficult work, make any compromises or sell out any principles in order to reach their objective. It also means that there is no need for Sinn Féin to modify any aspect of its own platform or behaviour – after all, if victory has already been secured, why entertain the possibility that your own strategy might be failing ?
There are other aspects in which the overall message of complacency manifests itself. While refusing to take action to tell its own base to prepare for unity, for example by explaining to supporters that there might be hard choices to face over healthcare or public spending, the party spends a great deal of effort insisting that others must start taking risks and doing the work. Assisted by various astroturf front groups (often characterised in the press as civic nationalists) they constantly lobby the Irish government, the Taoiseach, and others, via open letters and petitions, to prepare for unity. They are effectively demanding that the Irish government endorse the inevitability doctrine, while refusing to specify exactly what it is they think the government needs to do. In a moment of spectacular hubris, Upper Bann MLA John O’Dowd, welcoming the victory of President-elect Biden, suggested that perhaps the US President could become a ‘persuader for unity’. Not only is t is a strange day when a party historically dedicated to Irish self-determination and sovereignty publicly calls for foreign interference in Irish political affairs, but it is interesting how even senior Sinn Féin elected representatives seek to outsource the work of persuasion, apparently – and perhaps subconsciously – conceding they are incapable of doing it themselves.
Continuing the theme around inevitability and complacency, another trait I’ve noticed in this debate is the assumption that outside factors or events can be relied upon to deliver the unity outcome – the “Hail Mary pass”. For as long as I can remember, republicans have believed that the RC birth rate would eventually put an end to the union. This is telling, because it shows that those who advocate it believe that they will never be able to persuade Protestants to support reunification and they believe that Catholics will never be against it. I wonder what Wolfe Tone would have made of this idea.
Lately, I have heard them say that brexit will deliver unity, or that Scottish independence will make unity more likely. Faced with difficult questions around the cost of implementing unity, they say that perhaps the British, the EU, the UN or the USA might chip in to help. The overall theme is the same – unity is inevitable; other people are expected to help make it happen; and those who are being asked to vote for it will not be expected to face any hardship.
It’s not only Sinn Féin who suffer from this problem. Several weeks ago, Colum Eastwood stood up in the House of Commons and asked the Secretary of State to outline the criteria for calling a border poll. Eastwood must have known that the UK government would not, and will never, answer this question. He asked not to get an answer, but to play to the gallery who think that making demands of others without actually doing anything amounts to an active campaign. So far, no nationalist appears to have publicly admitted that nationalists must do what the Scots did – they must demonstrate a degree of political support, either in an election or in the assembly, that the Secretary of State cannot ignore. That nationalism is unwilling to propose this suggests a lack of confidence, which is indicative of the deeper problem I am highlighting here.
All of this goes a long way to explaining why, four years after brexit, Irish nationalism has singularly failed to either launch a coherent Irish unity campaign, or to politically capitalise on brexit. In Wales, support for Plaid Cymru has maintained roughly steady – of course, still very far from an endorsement of independence, but a noticeable shift. In Scotland, the SNP are below their historic peak vote share from 2015, but are set to sweep the board at the next Scottish parliamentary election and are widely expected to push for a second Independence referendum, with almost every poll predicting that they will win it. Yet, in Northern Ireland, Irish nationalism is sitting at 41%, its vote share gradually and consistently falling to that point ever since the 45.4% peak result it scored in the 1999 European Parliament election. In the 2019 Westminster election, Sinn Féin not only handed back all the gains from their 2017 surge, but a further 2 percentage points, finding themselves at a 20-year low in terms of vote share.
Psychologically, nationalists seem to be trying to construct a political framework whereby campaigning for the thing they desire – unity – is somehow not their job. They just have to wait around for the Irish government to act, or for Scottish independence to happen, or for the demographics to be right, or for the UK to mess up Brexit, or for Joe Biden to sweep in and fix it for them. In the meantime they seem to content themselves with group therapy sessions where they congratulate themselves on all the “work” they are doing, talk about how great unity will be when it happens, how nice they’re going to be to to the British-identifying minority (a few compliant examples are typically invited along to underpin the mutual back-slapping sessions), and how they’re going to correct all the problems that we have – with, of course, the generous assistance of the Irish taxpayer whose fulsome support is taken as read. There are no serious discussions of compromises, costs, sacrifices or difficult decisions, because they tell themselves that there do not need to be any.
All of this creates danger for the long term future of the island of Ireland. We can’t afford a brexit style, vote-first-and-ask-questions-later approach to unity. Yet in lobbying for a quick border poll without it being underpinned first either by a plan or a political mandate, this is exactly what Sinn Féin seem to be trying to do. An Irish unity process which is decoupled from the parties which advocate unity within Northern Ireland is built on a foundation of sand, in the same way that the UK’s departure from the European Union is.
I can’t speak for everyone in the centre ground, but I can share my own perspective. I have no problem with Irish unity, and I believe it can be made to work and work well. But I’m not going to be bounced either into a border poll or a Yes vote by people who have no interest in going out on a limb for their values and who think they can take my support for granted and I will certainly not support any unity plan that is built on handouts. But most importantly of all, I want to understand what the strategy nationalists will have to addressing community divisions post-reunification. I want to see real proof that nationalism won’t allow the same mistakes that were made in 1920 to be repeated. Writing British citizens into the constitution isn’t enough; nationalism needs to go out of its way to demonstrate how the concerns of the Unionist minority will be facilitated; how we will handle sensitive commemorations of the RUC, RIC, British Army and others, and how the British government will be have real, enforceable power to act as a guarantor for the rights and fair treatment of those who assert British citizenship.
All of this must form part of a blueprint which nationalist political parties within Northern Ireland must endorse before any referendum occurs. It’s not sufficient to hold the border poll first, brexit style, and see where the cards fall – this will destabilise the entire island of Ireland. Rather than continuing to push for a border poll for a fantasy unity project, Northern nationalists must publish their detailed manifesto for a future Ireland.
“Brexit: ‘The DUP’s hardline policies could be the quickest road to a united Ireland’” by “Brexit: ‘The DUP’s hardline policies could be the quickest road to a united Ireland’” is licensed under “Brexit: ‘The DUP’s hardline policies could be the quickest road to a united Ireland’“


sluggerotoole--2020-12-21--Our task is to persuade people across our country that it continues to be the right path for Norther

Today sees the launch of a new campaign called UNITING UK .
Our aim is to grow support for Northern Ireland ’ s continued position as part of the United Kingdom .
We will do this by promoting the many benefits of being part of the family of UK nations .
We are not a political party and welcome support from all who share our values and goals .
Our focus is on people who feel left behind by traditional unionism such as young people , liberals and minorities .
UNITING UK believes in an open and inclusive United Kingdom @ @ @ @ @ @ @ decision making to the most appropriate levels and want to help build a Northern Ireland that works for all its citizens .
Only as part of the UK can we maintain our current global influence for good .
We play a decisive role in fighting global warming and protecting our environment , in maintaining our mutual security and in helping to reduce inequality and poverty throughout the world .
Our islands have a shared culture and history that is intertwined through generations of immigration , trade and family .
We understand the benefits @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this has been well illustrated by the additional £2.5 billion provided by the Treasury to support Northern Ireland during the Covid-19 pandemic .
The Union is under pressure from Brexit , the Scottish independence movement and a growing sense of disunity amplified by the disjointed response across the UK to coronavirus .
A Border Poll is increasingly on the political agenda , with a number of pro-Irish unity groups campaigning for a referendum .
The Irish government ’ s Shared Island Unit has added to this momentum .
There has also been the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a referendum would be delivered by academics in the Working Group on Unification Referendums on the Island of Ireland which has added to the growing debate .
Even with all this activity , there is still no imminent prospect of a Border Poll and , even if there were , the consensus is that the status quo would win comfortably .
However , as former DUP Leader Peter Robinson recently warned , those in favour of maintaining the Union should not be in denial and must prepare for a future referendum .
Despite @ @ @ @ @ @ @ share the same approach as many others within the pro Union camp , that ‘ someone should do something ’ .
UNITING UK has been formed ‘ to do something ’ but our focus is different .
We understand that there are changes taking place in Northern Ireland .
More of us are refusing to be constrained by traditional political labels .
Our attitudes have evolved on social issues and our voting patterns are more fluid .
We see people all over Northern Ireland , and young people in particular , wanting to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Traditional unionism has failed to adapt to or engage with these voices in a meaningful and positive way .
We want to offer a new direction .
UNITING UK argues that the Union is a two-way street and that we need to promote Northern Ireland ’ s contribution to the Union in Great Britain .
The UK ’ s future direction may well be decided in Scotland or England as much as on the island of Ireland .
That is why our name and logo is both Northern Ireland and UK focused .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Scotland , and Wales we aim to develop greater constitutional , cultural , social and political linkages to promote and grow the many benefits of the United Kingdom .
‘ NI IN ’ is our key message and our purpose is to educate , communicate , research and campaign to grow the Union and prepare for any future referendum .
UNITING UK is forward looking and embraces a future were all four nations and regions of the United Kingdom are secure and content as partners in building a prosperous , peaceful and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ prisoners of our past .
We do not judge the merits of our country on the performance of the current Westminster government , the NI Executive nor even on major political events like Brexit .
These issues are fluid , but we must take the longer view .
The focus of UNITING UK is on the future , on telling the positive stories , and on building a better Northern Ireland .
We see the potential that lies ahead and what may be achieved by working together , uniting the UK .
Our @ @ @ @ @ @ @ country that it continues to be the right path for Northern Ireland to remain within the UK .

Today sees the launch of a new campaign called UNITING UK. Our aim is to grow support for Northern Ireland’s continued position as part of the United Kingdom. We will do this by promoting the many benefits of being part of the family of UK nations. We are not a political party and welcome support from all who share our values and goals. Our focus is on people who feel left behind by traditional unionism such as young people, liberals and minorities.
UNITING UK believes in an open and inclusive United Kingdom. We support devolution and driving down decision making to the most appropriate levels and want to help build a Northern Ireland that works for all its citizens. Only as part of the UK can we maintain our current global influence for good. We play a decisive role in fighting global warming and protecting our environment, in maintaining our mutual security and in helping to reduce inequality and poverty throughout the world. Our islands have a shared culture and history that is intertwined through generations of immigration, trade and family. We understand the benefits from sharing wealth within the UK and this has been well illustrated by the additional £2.5 billion provided by the Treasury to support Northern Ireland during the Covid-19 pandemic.
The Union is under pressure from Brexit, the Scottish independence movement and a growing sense of disunity amplified by the disjointed response across the UK to coronavirus. A Border Poll is increasingly on the political agenda, with a number of pro-Irish unity groups campaigning for a referendum. The Irish government’s Shared Island Unit has added to this momentum. There has also been the recent launch of interim proposals on how a referendum would be delivered by academics in the Working Group on Unification Referendums on the Island of Ireland which has added to the growing debate.
Even with all this activity, there is still no imminent prospect of a Border Poll and, even if there were, the consensus is that the status quo would win comfortably. However, as former DUP Leader Peter Robinson recently warned, those in favour of maintaining the Union should not be in denial and must prepare for a future referendum. Despite his warning, Mr Robinson seems to share the same approach as many others within the pro Union camp, that ‘someone should do something’.
UNITING UK has been formed ‘to do something’ but our focus is different. We understand that there are changes taking place in Northern Ireland. More of us are refusing to be constrained by traditional political labels. Our attitudes have evolved on social issues and our voting patterns are more fluid. We see people all over Northern Ireland, and young people in particular, wanting to change our country for the better. Traditional unionism has failed to adapt to or engage with these voices in a meaningful and positive way. We want to offer a new direction.
UNITING UK argues that the Union is a two-way street and that we need to promote Northern Ireland’s contribution to the Union in Great Britain. The UK’s future direction may well be decided in Scotland or England as much as on the island of Ireland. That is why our name and logo is both Northern Ireland and UK focused. By working with other groups across England, Scotland, and Wales we aim to develop greater constitutional, cultural, social and political linkages to promote and grow the many benefits of the United Kingdom. ‘NI IN’ is our key message and our purpose is to educate, communicate, research and campaign to grow the Union and prepare for any future referendum.
UNITING UK is forward looking and embraces a future were all four nations and regions of the United Kingdom are secure and content as partners in building a prosperous, peaceful and outwardly focused country. We are not prisoners of our past. We do not judge the merits of our country on the performance of the current Westminster government, the NI Executive nor even on major political events like Brexit. These issues are fluid, but we must take the longer view.
The focus of UNITING UK is on the future, on telling the positive stories, and on building a better Northern Ireland. We see the potential that lies ahead and what may be achieved by working together, uniting the UK. Our task is to persuade people across our country that it continues to be the right path for Northern Ireland to remain within the UK.


sluggerotoole--2020-12-21--Is voluntary coalition reaching the end of its useful time?

In Friday ’ s News Letter , Claire Bailey scathingly casts doubt over the durability of our current system of government by saying “ The five-party executive model hasn ’ t been conducive to sound decision making .
The competing priorities of each of the parties means that crisis management is beyond their capabilities ” .
Unfortunately , she didn ’ t take her opening paragraph to its logical conclusion in the rest of her article .
But it ’ s a start .
This came not long after a Sam McBride article in the same paper that quoted a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ members as saying , “ Let ’ s be clear : the only way to overcome the failures of leadership we have witnessed at the Executive in recent days is by ending mandatory coalition and breaking the governance structures that have held Northern Ireland back for far too long ” .
While its undoubtedly easy to attribute both leaders ’ words to frustration at the end of a frustrating few weeks , could Alliance and the Greens actually provide leadership that ultimately acts as a catalyst for radical reform of Stormont ?
There @ @ @ @ @ @ @ over the flaws inherent in St Andrews .
But suffice to say the effect was to hole both the UUP and SDLP below the water .
Of the two , the SDLP has shown greater resilience than anticipated , while Alliance under Long ’ s leadership is currently enjoying an unprecedented wave of popular support .
But can they significantly build on this while the electorate is shackled by St Andrews ?
That would necessitate people from either community voting for them without any guarantees those on the other side doing likewise .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ to various meltdowns in 2020 and surely , we now need to be given a real opportunity The last Assembly election vote – at a time of extreme polarisation over RHI , Brexit and ILA – broke down 28 % DUP , 28 % SF , 13 % UUP , 12 % SDLP , 9 % Alliance and 10 % other .
This was on a very high 65 % turnout .
In last year ’ s Council election Alliance increased its vote by 87 % at a time when turnout fell to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ when the St Andrews wasn ’ t an issue .
In the 2019 General Election – with turnout back up to 62 % – Alliance hit a record 17 % with the SDLP back up to 15 % ( despite not standing in three seats ) .
This suggests that people will vote imaginatively if the effect of that vote is a positive one .
That simply can ’ t happen under St Andrews .
Nor was it intended to .
But Bailie and Long are right .
The disjointed performance over something @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that mandatory coalition doesn ’ t work .
Weighted voluntary could lead to more thoughtful engagement .
Not total agreement on all issues .
No coalition ever delivers that .
But an environment where a bad performance could lose a party its place at the table would certainly serve to curb the excesses and smooth the edges of the dogmatism of all the parties .
That ’ s how good coalitions work the world over .
So why not here ?
A couple of our high-profile journalists recently highlighted a couple of possible @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Suzanne Breen said that if a voluntary setup was introduced then Sinn Fein could be permanently excluded which would leave many nationalists feeling there was a danger of a return to the situation pre-1972 .
While Ben Lowry tweeted about the McBride article “ This sort of thinking from Alliance poses a real challenge for unionists .
Traditionally unionists are most sceptical of mandatory coalition , but there is now an Alliance-centre-nationalist majority , and might be an even bigger one in the future.
” Suzanne paints an impossible scenario while Ben @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of paranoia in suggesting that “ centre ” translates to inherently anti-unionist .
The reality is that neither designation has an overall majority .
Nationalism because it doesn ’ t have even close to the numbers and unionism because it isn ’ t currently resonating strongly enough with sufficient younger voters in strong pro-union areas .
They could win it back with the right approach , but even if they do , they will NEVER have the sort of numbers to allow unionism to govern alone .
Plus , no-one remotely believes any @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that possibility .
So , if those are the main objections to voluntary coalition and they can be ruled out so easily , is this not worth at least serious consideration ?
To be honest , its unlikely to happen even in the medium term because for all its faults the current setup suits the two big parties .
But it would be interesting to see what would happen if Long , Eastwood , Aitken and Bailie made a united case for reform .
They should .
They have nothing to lose .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ suitable reform could finally free up and embolden the young , post troubles elements of their memberships in a way that could see them contribute every effectively to any new system .
They exist and they need to be encouraged , not stifled by a previous generation and an outdated system .

In Friday’s News Letter, Claire Bailey scathingly casts doubt over the durability of our current system of government by saying “The five-party executive model hasn’t been conducive to sound decision making. The competing priorities of each of the parties means that crisis management is beyond their capabilities”. Unfortunately, she didn’t take her opening paragraph to its logical conclusion in the rest of her article. But it’s a start.
This came not long after a Sam McBride article in the same paper that quoted a missive from Naomi Long to her party members as saying, “Let’s be clear: the only way to overcome the failures of leadership we have witnessed at the Executive in recent days is by ending mandatory coalition and breaking the governance structures that have held Northern Ireland back for far too long”.
While its undoubtedly easy to attribute both leaders’ words to frustration at the end of a frustrating few weeks, could Alliance and the Greens actually provide leadership that ultimately acts as a catalyst for radical reform of Stormont?
There’s no need to go back over the flaws inherent in St Andrews. But suffice to say the effect was to hole both the UUP and SDLP below the water.
Of the two, the SDLP has shown greater resilience than anticipated, while Alliance under Long’s leadership is currently enjoying an unprecedented wave of popular support. But can they significantly build on this while the electorate is shackled by St Andrews?
That would necessitate people from either community voting for them without any guarantees those on the other side doing likewise. That’s what led us inevitably to various meltdowns in 2020 and surely, we now need to be given a real opportunity
The last Assembly election vote – at a time of extreme polarisation over RHI, Brexit and ILA – broke down 28% DUP, 28% SF, 13% UUP, 12% SDLP, 9% Alliance and 10% other. This was on a very high 65% turnout.
In last year’s Council election Alliance increased its vote by 87% at a time when turnout fell to 53% but also at a time when the St Andrews wasn’t an issue. In the 2019 General Election – with turnout back up to 62% – Alliance hit a record 17% with the SDLP back up to 15% (despite not standing in three seats).
This suggests that people will vote imaginatively if the effect of that vote is a positive one. That simply can’t happen under St Andrews. Nor was it intended to. But Bailie and Long are right. The disjointed performance over something as basic as public health demonstrates clearly that mandatory coalition doesn’t work.
Weighted voluntary could lead to more thoughtful engagement. Not total agreement on all issues. No coalition ever delivers that. But an environment where a bad performance could lose a party its place at the table would certainly serve to curb the excesses and smooth the edges of the dogmatism of all the parties. That’s how good coalitions work the world over.
So why not here?
A couple of our high-profile journalists recently highlighted a couple of possible objections. On the Red Lines podcast, Suzanne Breen said that if a voluntary setup was introduced then Sinn Fein could be permanently excluded which would leave many nationalists feeling there was a danger of a return to the situation pre-1972.
While Ben Lowry tweeted about the McBride article “This sort of thinking from Alliance poses a real challenge for unionists. Traditionally unionists are most sceptical of mandatory coalition, but there is now an Alliance-centre-nationalist majority, and might be an even bigger one in the future.”
Suzanne paints an impossible scenario while Ben’s just betrays a worrying level of paranoia in suggesting that “centre” translates to inherently anti-unionist.
The reality is that neither designation has an overall majority. Nationalism because it doesn’t have even close to the numbers and unionism because it isn’t currently resonating strongly enough with sufficient younger voters in strong pro-union areas.
They could win it back with the right approach, but even if they do, they will NEVER have the sort of numbers to allow unionism to govern alone. Plus, no-one remotely believes any system will be agreed that allows for that possibility.
So, if those are the main objections to voluntary coalition and they can be ruled out so easily, is this not worth at least serious consideration? To be honest, its unlikely to happen even in the medium term because for all its faults the current setup suits the two big parties.
But it would be interesting to see what would happen if Long, Eastwood, Aitken and Bailie made a united case for reform. They should. They have nothing to lose.
Nor do the two main parties as suitable reform could finally free up and embolden the young, post troubles elements of their memberships in a way that could see them contribute every effectively to any new system.
They exist and they need to be encouraged, not stifled by a previous generation and an outdated system.


sluggerotoole--2020-12-23--Why I think Northern Ireland will still be part of the Union in another 100 years time…

Alex Easton is one of two DUP MLAs currently representing North Down .
Here he lays out what he thinks the current strength of the case for retaining the union between Northern Ireland and Great Britain , and why Northern Ireland needs more optimistic engagement with the future .
Being passionate about the Union and never having done a piece for Slugger O ’ Toole before , I am hoping that those who oppose the Union will not be too hard on me for my first attempt .
Historically , Northern Ireland has been considered to have two different groups @ @ @ @ @ @ @ been an obvious shift away from this perspective .
No longer do we speak of Unionists and Nationalists , but of Unionists , Nationalists , and ‘ others ’ .
In the Northern Ireland Life and Times survey in 2019 , people were asked if they thought of themselves as Unionist , Nationalist or other and the results showed that 33 % of the population described themselves as a unionist , 23 % as a Nationalist and 39 % of people said neither .
In remarks I made previously , that were partially @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on Slugger O ’ Toole , I claimed that unionist success in a border poll was inevitable .
Whilst inevitable is often a controversial word to use in politics ( think , Hillary Clinton winning the US presidential election , or the UK remaining in the EU ) , my general point was that it is the tendency of the ‘ other ’ group in Northern Ireland to support the Union .
There is evidence to prove it .
The Life and Times survey asked people how they would vote in a border @ @ @ @ @ @ @ would vote for a United Ireland and 51 % said that they would vote to remain in the UK .
No matter what your political persuasion may be , it ’ s evident from these figures that remaining in the UK has a certain appeal to the middle ground that the United Ireland argument has thus far failed to penetrate .
This is without a concerted campaign by unionists to promote the union as of yet , and , a lot of this thinking , I believe , is down to economics .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ remaining in the Union holds the advantage is that of healthcare .
Over half of voters are discouraged from voting for a United Ireland based on the differences in our healthcare systems .
Whilst a certain number of people qualify for free healthcare in the Republic of Ireland , the majority do not .
Without free healthcare , citizens of the Republic can be charged around €50 to see a GP , €100 to visit A & E and over €140 a month for prescription drugs .
Spending ten days in hospital could @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , over 40 % of Irish citizens have private health insurance , which costs , on average , just under €2,000 per person .
This is the highest percentage take-up of private insurance anywhere in Europe , and average emergency room waiting times are also the highest in Europe .
The Covid-19 pandemic has demonstrated the widespread support in Northern Ireland for the NHS .
This support extends beyond mere economics , into feelings of pride , for both the institution and the workers within it .
Sinn Fein plans to create an @ @ @ @ @ @ @ go down well with Irish citizens .
Only a third are willing to vote for unification if it means higher taxes , and a border poll must be won in the Republic of Ireland too .
There are differences in our other emergency services too .
Northern Ireland has 382 police officers per 100,000 of the population .
The Republic of Ireland , with just 278 officers per 100,000 citizens , has one of the smallest police forces in Europe .
Fire services are chargeable in the Republic of Ireland , with individuals @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , depending on where they live .
Home insurance does not always cover these costs and the system has been labelled confusing , unfair and unsafe by insurers .
A claim often levelled at Unionism is that supporting Brexit was akin to shooting our future selves in the foot when it comes to attracting support in a border poll , but little evidence is ever given to support this assertion .
Perhaps , because the evidence isn ’ t always there .
Over half of voters say that leaving the EU has made @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a border poll .
No matter what your political persuasion is , or whether you voted leave or remain , we can all agree that the process of leaving the EU has not been smooth .
Northern Ireland has been part of the United Kingdom for considerably longer than the United Kingdom has been a part of the EU , and disentangling that connection would be vastly more complex .
Current debates surrounding Scotland leaving the UK have further shown that answers to difficult questions are not easily forthcoming , and given the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that the ‘ transition period ’ could cause to their lives .
With the UK as the largest net contributor to the EU , Brexit leaves a sizeable hole in the finances of the organization .
Some have suggested that the EU would assist Ireland in funding Northern Ireland should a border poll be won .
However , with contributions from EU member-states set to increase to fill the budgetary blackhole , a significant financial package or contribution-break for Ireland would not likely go down well with , in some cases , already @ @ @ @ @ @ @ alone would not be able to take Northern Ireland on without a significant financial impact – higher taxes , higher borrowing – on the very people that must vote for unification to happen .
The financial support that we receive from the British government is more than we would receive as part of a United Ireland .
Not only do we receive the block grant , totalling nearly £15 billion in 2020-21 , but we are also in receipt of various financial packages .
This includes , for example , a commitment of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Decade , New Approach agreement .
We are also still receiving money from the Confidence and Supply Agreement between my party and the Conservative Party , notably in improving rural broadband access .
Overall , Northern Ireland has the most funding per head of the population of any other region of the United Kingdom .
In terms of employment , the public sector would take a significant hit in the event of unification and it currently employs over 25 % of our total workforce .
Redundancies would likely be widespread and costly .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ provided us with £24 billion to fund benefits payments .
It ’ s also important not to forget the basics .
The UK is the fifth largest economy in the world .
Ireland currently sits at number twenty-eight .
We also have the debt owed to the UK by the Republic of Ireland .
The Irish Government still owes the United Kingdom Government over £2 billion in a bilateral loan given following the financial crisis over a decade ago.It is hard to argue that a United Ireland can be achieved without significant tax @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
In terms of further financial benefits , there is no better example than that of Covid-19 .
Firstly , due to our position in the Union , we have benefitted from the UK-wide schemes to assist in retaining jobs and supporting the self-employed , to name but two .
We can pick flaws in the Covid-19 schemes , which are not perfect , and we can find individuals who do not qualify for the packages of government support .
However , I think that people have lost sight of the big picture @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The IMF singled out the United Kingdom to praise the government for their extensive response , highlighting its generosity and its speed when compared with the rest of the world .
Not only have we benefitted from these schemes , but the Treasury has provided the Executive with several billion pounds specifically to assist in measures to tackle the virus and provide support to those in need .
The Covid-19 response in the Republic of Ireland is not as substantial as that which we have received through our membership of the Union .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ financial benefits of remaining in the Union .
It would be difficult to list , or fully explore all of the ways in which we benefit financially from being a part of the United Kingdom in such a short piece .
Still , these are some of the key financial arguments that I have no doubt will be fought out during a border poll campaign .
As a committed unionist , I find them convincing .
I think many ‘ others ’ and many moderate nationalists will do too .
The polling certainly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this is the case .
However , we can never and must never be complacent in our assumptions , beliefs , and position within the United Kingdom .
Unionists definitely need to do more to sell the Union .
In my view , whilst I don ’ t want a border poll because I believe it will be destabilizing I do not fear one either , however I am realistic enough to know this is out of my hands , and , to secure my desired result , I believe that selling the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The centenary of Northern Ireland presents us with a unique opportunity to promote the benefits of our position within the United Kingdom and kick-start what should be a positive and ongoing campaign .
I am , however , optimistic about the place from which we start and believe that we will be part of the Union for another 100 years .
Photo by hhach is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA Photo by hhach is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA

Alex Easton is one of two DUP MLAs currently representing North Down. Here he lays out what he thinks the current strength of the case for retaining the union between Northern Ireland and Great Britain, and why Northern Ireland needs more optimistic engagement with the future.
Being passionate about the Union and never having done a piece for Slugger O’Toole before, I am hoping that those who oppose the Union will not be too hard on me for my first attempt.
Historically, Northern Ireland has been considered to have two different groups of peoples; however, there has been an obvious shift away from this perspective. No longer do we speak of Unionists and Nationalists, but of Unionists, Nationalists, and ‘others’. In the Northern Ireland Life and Times survey in 2019, people were asked if they thought of themselves as Unionist, Nationalist or other and the results showed that 33% of the population described themselves as a unionist, 23% as a Nationalist and 39% of people said neither.
In remarks I made previously, that were partially quoted in the Newsletter and then reported on Slugger O’Toole, I claimed that unionist success in a border poll was inevitable. Whilst inevitable is often a controversial word to use in politics (think, Hillary Clinton winning the US presidential election, or the UK remaining in the EU), my general point was that it is the tendency of the ‘other’ group in Northern Ireland to support the Union.
There is evidence to prove it. The Life and Times survey asked people how they would vote in a border poll. 25% said that they would vote for a United Ireland and 51% said that they would vote to remain in the UK. No matter what your political persuasion may be, it’s evident from these figures that remaining in the UK has a certain appeal to the middle ground that the United Ireland argument has thus far failed to penetrate. This is without a concerted campaign by unionists to promote the union as of yet, and, a lot of this thinking, I believe, is down to economics.
Perhaps the most obvious area in which remaining in the Union holds the advantage is that of healthcare. Over half of voters are discouraged from voting for a United Ireland based on the differences in our healthcare systems. Whilst a certain number of people qualify for free healthcare in the Republic of Ireland, the majority do not. Without free healthcare, citizens of the Republic can be charged around €50 to see a GP, €100 to visit A&E and over €140 a month for prescription drugs. Spending ten days in hospital could see you spend over €800. Therefore, over 40% of Irish citizens have private health insurance, which costs, on average, just under €2,000 per person.
This is the highest percentage take-up of private insurance anywhere in Europe, and average emergency room waiting times are also the highest in Europe. The Covid-19 pandemic has demonstrated the widespread support in Northern Ireland for the NHS. This support extends beyond mere economics, into feelings of pride, for both the institution and the workers within it. Sinn Fein plans to create an NHS in a United Ireland do not go down well with Irish citizens. Only a third are willing to vote for unification if it means higher taxes, and a border poll must be won in the Republic of Ireland too.
There are differences in our other emergency services too. Northern Ireland has 382 police officers per 100,000 of the population. The Republic of Ireland, with just 278 officers per 100,000 citizens, has one of the smallest police forces in Europe. Fire services are chargeable in the Republic of Ireland, with individuals billed anywhere between €0-750 for calling 999, depending on where they live. Home insurance does not always cover these costs and the system has been labelled confusing, unfair and unsafe by insurers.
A claim often levelled at Unionism is that supporting Brexit was akin to shooting our future selves in the foot when it comes to attracting support in a border poll, but little evidence is ever given to support this assertion. Perhaps, because the evidence isn’t always there. Over half of voters say that leaving the EU has made absolutely no difference to their preference in a border poll.
No matter what your political persuasion is, or whether you voted leave or remain, we can all agree that the process of leaving the EU has not been smooth. Northern Ireland has been part of the United Kingdom for considerably longer than the United Kingdom has been a part of the EU, and disentangling that connection would be vastly more complex.
Current debates surrounding Scotland leaving the UK have further shown that answers to difficult questions are not easily forthcoming, and given the public a glimpse into the potential disruption that the ‘transition period’ could cause to their lives. With the UK as the largest net contributor to the EU, Brexit leaves a sizeable hole in the finances of the organization. Some have suggested that the EU would assist Ireland in funding Northern Ireland should a border poll be won.
However, with contributions from EU member-states set to increase to fill the budgetary blackhole, a significant financial package or contribution-break for Ireland would not likely go down well with, in some cases, already disgruntled member-states. Ireland’s economy alone would not be able to take Northern Ireland on without a significant financial impact – higher taxes, higher borrowing – on the very people that must vote for unification to happen.
The financial support that we receive from the British government is more than we would receive as part of a United Ireland. Not only do we receive the block grant, totalling nearly £15 billion in 2020-21, but we are also in receipt of various financial packages. This includes, for example, a commitment of over £520 million to fund the New Decade, New Approach agreement. We are also still receiving money from the Confidence and Supply Agreement between my party and the Conservative Party, notably in improving rural broadband access.
Overall, Northern Ireland has the most funding per head of the population of any other region of the United Kingdom. In terms of employment, the public sector would take a significant hit in the event of unification and it currently employs over 25% of our total workforce. Redundancies would likely be widespread and costly.
Since 2016, the UK government has provided us with £24 billion to fund benefits payments. It’s also important not to forget the basics. The UK is the fifth largest economy in the world. Ireland currently sits at number twenty-eight. We also have the debt owed to the UK by the Republic of Ireland. The Irish Government still owes the United Kingdom Government over £2 billion in a bilateral loan given following the financial crisis over a decade ago.It is hard to argue that a United Ireland can be achieved without significant tax rises, EU grants or increased borrowing.
In terms of further financial benefits, there is no better example than that of Covid-19. Firstly, due to our position in the Union, we have benefitted from the UK-wide schemes to assist in retaining jobs and supporting the self-employed, to name but two. We can pick flaws in the Covid-19 schemes, which are not perfect, and we can find individuals who do not qualify for the packages of government support. However, I think that people have lost sight of the big picture and how fortunate we are globally.
The IMF singled out the United Kingdom to praise the government for their extensive response, highlighting its generosity and its speed when compared with the rest of the world. Not only have we benefitted from these schemes, but the Treasury has provided the Executive with several billion pounds specifically to assist in measures to tackle the virus and provide support to those in need. The Covid-19 response in the Republic of Ireland is not as substantial as that which we have received through our membership of the Union.
These are only a few of the financial benefits of remaining in the Union. It would be difficult to list, or fully explore all of the ways in which we benefit financially from being a part of the United Kingdom in such a short piece. Still, these are some of the key financial arguments that I have no doubt will be fought out during a border poll campaign.
As a committed unionist, I find them convincing. I think many ‘others’ and many moderate nationalists will do too. The polling certainly suggests that, as it stands, this is the case. However, we can never and must never be complacent in our assumptions, beliefs, and position within the United Kingdom.
Unionists definitely need to do more to sell the Union. In my view, whilst I don’t want a border poll because I believe it will be destabilizing I do not fear one either, however I am realistic enough to know this is out of my hands, and, to secure my desired result, I believe that selling the benefits of the Union must start now.
The centenary of Northern Ireland presents us with a unique opportunity to promote the benefits of our position within the United Kingdom and kick-start what should be a positive and ongoing campaign. I am, however, optimistic about the place from which we start and believe that we will be part of the Union for another 100 years.
Photo by hhach is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA
Photo by hhach is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA