sluggerotoole--2020-05-29--Slugger Podcast #InConversation with David Gavaghan about the economy & society after Covid-19…

David is the founder of Aurora Prime Real Estate Ltd .
He was also the chair of CBI NI as well as the MAC Belfast .
Amongst his previous roles was the Chief Executive of Titanic Quarter Ltd .
While his background is in business and finance , he also has a keen interest in the environment and social justice .
Raised in Dublin but living in Belfast for the past 15 years he has a good insight into the economy and society North and South .
In this conversation , we discuss the state of the NI Economy after @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cooperation and reducing inequality .
David has a particular interest in climate change and the urgent need to take action .
Climate change talk can either bore or terrify people but David makes it clear that there are strong economic benefits for Ireland in being greener as well as the obvious environmental and social ones .
Have a listen and let me know what you think .
You can subscribe to Slugger Podcasts on Apple Podcasts | Google Podcasts or Spotify The YouTube version below has subtitles , just click the CC button @

David is the founder of Aurora Prime Real Estate Ltd. He is a Non- Executive Director of CBI (and in 2016/2017 was chair of CBI in Northern Ireland). In January David was appointed a Belfast Climate Commissioner and was Chair of MAC in Belfast until March 2020. Amongst his previous roles, he was the Chief Executive of Titanic Quarter Ltd and Strategic Investment Board. Whilst his background is in business and finance, he also has a keen interest in the environment and social justice. Born in Kenya and raised in Wicklow, he now lives in Belfast. He has a good insight into the economy and society across the island. His wife, Helen O’Malley runs the successful Thai restaurant, Bo Tree Kitchen, on University Avenue.
In this conversation, we discuss the state of the NI Economy after Covid-19, pragmatic options for all-island cooperation and addressing inequality. David has a particular interest in climate change and the urgent need to take action. Climate change talk can either bore or terrify people but David makes it clear that there are strong economic benefits for Ireland in being greener as well as the obvious environmental and social ones.
Have a listen and let me know what you think.
You can subscribe to Slugger Podcasts on Apple Podcasts | Google Podcasts or Spotify
The YouTube version below has subtitles, just click the CC button.


sluggerotoole--2020-05-29--Attire for a pandemic. Let’s mask up…

Attire for a pandemic. Let’s mask up…

My daughter who studied fashion at Uni .
has found a lucrative niche in designer cloth face-masks and they ’ re proving popular with her fashion-conscious peers and their trendy mothers .
My other daughter , teaching overseas , can not leave her apartment without a surgical face-mask – the blue ones – and off course internationally there is more and more pressure to make the wearing of face-masks in public mandatory .
Face-mask fashion is de rigueur , the modern equivalent of the late-medieval Plague Doctor ’ s attire with a potent nosegay stuffed into his raven ’ s-beak @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is likely to be a global phenomenon after Covid-19 .
The SARS-CoV-2 virus is most likely ( we ’ re still not certain ) transmitted by inhalation of both droplets and aerosol near the infected individual .
It can also be picked up from infected surfaces such as doorknobs and tables .
The virus is microscopic indeed .
The virus is as small compared to a party-balloon as a party-balloon is compared to the World ; pretty small .
And there are lots and lots of them .
Each day , a Covid-19 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s 12 zeros which is a pretty big number .
It is also likely that people before they get symptoms if they ever do , are spreading the virus .
We are doing what we can to mitigate against this virus ; washing our hands often and socially isolating , so what is the evidence of adding the wearing face-masks ?
Studies indicate that cloth face-masks , even the most sought after designer ones , are more or less useless in preventing viral transmission , whether worn by the infected or as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ those trying to avoid contact .
Surgical face-masks likely have some use in limiting virus dispersal to other people in a healthcare setting by stopping the spread of large cough particles and restrict their dispersion from the infected .
The best measure of a face-masks performance is its filter efficiency and its fit .
Masks are supposed to collect viral particles through physical mechanisms .
The gold standard face-mask is an N95 filtering facepiece respirator ( FFRs ) which is constructed from electret filter material allowing electrostatic attraction of viral particles for additional @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the US , the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health ( NIOSH ) conducted a study of the filtering performance of clothing materials .
All cloth face-masks had near zero efficiency at 0.3 µm , a particle size that easily penetrates into the lungs .
Another study evaluated 44 face-masks and unsurprisingly the N95 mask filter efficiency was greater than 95 % .
Surgical masks exhibited 55 % efficiency , general masks 38 % and handkerchiefs 2 % ( one layer ) up to 13 % ( four layers ) .
Face-mask @ @ @ @ @ @ @ well the mask prevents leakage of viral particles around the face-mask .
The N95 FFRs should fit so that the facepiece lowers the outside concentration of particles by 99 % .
Cloth masks have very low filter efficiency .
Thus , even masks that fit well against the face will not prevent inhalation of small particles by the wearer or emission of small particles from the wearer .
One study suggests that poor fit can be somewhat offset by good filter collection , but will not approach the level of protection required to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ most cloth and surgical masks have very poor filter performance anyway .
Cloth face-masks in clinical settings go back to the late 1800s , first as infection control on patients and nurses and later as PPE by nurses .
Cloth face-masks failed miserably in stopping the 1918 influenza pandemic because the number of cloth layers needed to achieve acceptable particle block made them difficult to breathe through and caused leakage around the mask .
So , cloth face-masks are inefficient filters and a poor fit and there is no evidence to support their @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to control the emission of particles from the wearer .
Household studies found very limited effectiveness of surgical masks at reducing respiratory illness in other household members and clinical trials in the surgery theatre have found no difference in wound infection rates with and without surgical masks .
This is interesting as we all expect our surgeons to keep long-standing practice .
Wearing surgical masks in households appears to have very little impact on transmission of respiratory diseases .
One reason may be that masks are not likely to be worn continuously in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ no , or very low , impact on disease transmission during a pandemic .
A randomized trial comparing the effect of surgical and cloth masks on healthcare worker illness found that those wearing cloth masks were 13 times more likely to experience influenza-like illness than those wearing surgical masks .
And we must remember that surgical masks should be single use which is not my experience observing the good people of the Falls Road .
Leaving aside the fact that cloth and surgical masks are ineffective , telling or requiring the public to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to mean that people are safe to stop washing their hands regularly or isolating at home .
Masks will confuse that message and give people a false sense of security .
If masks had been the solution in Asia , shouldn ’ t they have stopped the pandemic before it spread elsewhere ?
But I would not want too many people to heed the science as it might disrupt my daughter ’ s budding fashion business .
“ ElvertBarnes.Walk.BaltimoreMD.12April2020 ” by Elvert Barnes is licensed under CC BY-SA

My daughter who studied fashion at Uni. has found a lucrative niche in designer cloth face-masks and they’re proving popular with her fashion-conscious peers and their trendy mothers. My other daughter, teaching overseas, cannot leave her apartment without a surgical face-mask – the blue ones – and off course internationally there is more and more pressure to make the wearing of face-masks in public mandatory. Face-mask fashion is de rigueur, the modern equivalent of the late-medieval Plague Doctor’s attire with a potent nosegay stuffed into his raven’s-beak. What started after SARs in Asia is likely to be a global phenomenon after Covid-19.
The SARS-CoV-2 virus is most likely (we’re still not certain) transmitted by inhalation of both droplets and aerosol near the infected individual. It can also be picked up from infected surfaces such as doorknobs and tables. The virus is microscopic indeed. The virus is as small compared to a party-balloon as a party-balloon is compared to the World; pretty small. And there are lots and lots of them. Each day, a Covid-19 sufferer might emit 1011 viruses; that’s 12 zeros which is a pretty big number. It is also likely that people before they get symptoms if they ever do, are spreading the virus. We are doing what we can to mitigate against this virus; washing our hands often and socially isolating, so what is the evidence of adding the wearing face-masks?
Studies indicate that cloth face-masks, even the most sought after designer ones, are more or less useless in preventing viral transmission, whether worn by the infected or as personal protective equipment (PPE) in those trying to avoid contact. Surgical face-masks likely have some use in limiting virus dispersal to other people in a healthcare setting by stopping the spread of large cough particles and restrict their dispersion from the infected.
The best measure of a face-masks performance is its filter efficiency and its fit. Masks are supposed to collect viral particles through physical mechanisms. The gold standard face-mask is an N95 filtering facepiece respirator (FFRs) which is constructed from electret filter material allowing electrostatic attraction of viral particles for additional collection of all particle sizes.
In the US, the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) conducted a study of the filtering performance of clothing materials. All cloth face-masks had near zero efficiency at 0.3 µm, a particle size that easily penetrates into the lungs.
Another study evaluated 44 face-masks and unsurprisingly the N95 mask filter efficiency was greater than 95%. Surgical masks exhibited 55% efficiency, general masks 38% and handkerchiefs 2% (one layer) up to 13% (four layers).
Face-mask fit should be a measure of how well the mask prevents leakage of viral particles around the face-mask. The N95 FFRs should fit so that the facepiece lowers the outside concentration of particles by 99%. Cloth masks have very low filter efficiency. Thus, even masks that fit well against the face will not prevent inhalation of small particles by the wearer or emission of small particles from the wearer.
One study suggests that poor fit can be somewhat offset by good filter collection, but will not approach the level of protection required to reduce the risk of viral infection and most cloth and surgical masks have very poor filter performance anyway.
Cloth face-masks in clinical settings go back to the late 1800s, first as infection control on patients and nurses and later as PPE by nurses. Cloth face-masks failed miserably in stopping the 1918 influenza pandemic because the number of cloth layers needed to achieve acceptable particle block made them difficult to breathe through and caused leakage around the mask. So, cloth face-masks are inefficient filters and a poor fit and there is no evidence to support their use by the public or healthcare workers to control the emission of particles from the wearer. Household studies found very limited effectiveness of surgical masks at reducing respiratory illness in other household members and clinical trials in the surgery theatre have found no difference in wound infection rates with and without surgical masks. This is interesting as we all expect our surgeons to keep long-standing practice.
Wearing surgical masks in households appears to have very little impact on transmission of respiratory diseases. One reason may be that masks are not likely to be worn continuously in households suggesting that surgical masks will have no, or very low, impact on disease transmission during a pandemic. A randomized trial comparing the effect of surgical and cloth masks on healthcare worker illness found that those wearing cloth masks were 13 times more likely to experience influenza-like illness than those wearing surgical masks. And we must remember that surgical masks should be single use which is not my experience observing the good people of the Falls Road.
Leaving aside the fact that cloth and surgical masks are ineffective, telling or requiring the public to wear them could be interpreted by some to mean that people are safe to stop washing their hands regularly or isolating at home. Masks will confuse that message and give people a false sense of security.
If masks had been the solution in Asia, shouldn’t they have stopped the pandemic before it spread elsewhere? But I would not want too many people to heed the science as it might disrupt my daughter’s budding fashion business.
“ElvertBarnes.Walk.BaltimoreMD.12April2020” by Elvert Barnes is licensed under CC BY-SA


sluggerotoole--2020-05-29--Has England become a caricature of arrogance, incompetence and the lies that bind…

I am sure there will be many who are in the ‘ Told-You-So ’ mode as the current administration in Westminster lurches from mishandling to mishandling since the Johnson election propelled , with a substantial majority , the Brexit-bearing wing of the Tory party into power .
The fact that many of the leading figures have gone AWOL , and left an inexperienced and uncertain leadership in place , brings a worrying reality into focus .
Brought up on the understanding that London ‘ knows best ’ is not something easily flushed out of the collective system .
I , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ up as a young boy in 1950s Belfast with a sense that everything from medical to educational to cultural ‘ policy ’ was handled by experts , with real knowledge and the authority to make informed decisions concerning ordinary people ’ s health and educational opportunities , irrespective of their class , gender or ethnic background .
Dream on .
It was a cruel fantasy but the legacy of which the sixties did , in part , reflect and consolidate until , in Northern Ireland , the Troubles blew the lid off the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ which followed were meant to produce a new technocratic revolution in the renovated UK .
Did that happen ?
I don ’ t know .
But in the re-run of the endless anxiety and tug-of-war about where England actually sits in the political order of post-Cold War Europe , we are left , those of us schooled in that egalitarian dream-time , admitting that the England of today looks , under the Johnson administration , already tattered and tawdry , indeed inept and under-resourced and drawing the country into a much deeper sense @ @ @ @ @ @ @ reputedly going to override .
The sunny uplands are looking more and more like a mess of empty promises , false hype , and unimpressive planning .
How this will all pan out in real-time is for others , who are experts in economic policy and global trade relations , to analyse and project .
However , one shouldn ’ t allow the Johnson government to get in the way of the long-standing cultural and intellectual relationships between both Northern Ireland and the Republic and England .
The academic connections pre-date the EU @ @ @ @ @ @ @ thought goes into the unfolding situation .
For instance , the ties of historical links between Irish writing and England – English publishers , theatres , festivals , and all the other literary-cultural outlets – are just too important to become frozen or , even worse , subject to the lies on buses which delivered the Brexit-bound fantasy to the politics of the UK .
Whatever about our differing views on many things the opportunities which English centres of cultural activity and recognition have offered to generations of Irish writers are indispensable .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the Irish reciprocation might well need revisioning and rebooting .
Recently , reading Hilary Mantel ’ s fiction , literary journalism and memoir brought to mind such an utterly different worldview to that currently on display in the major media outlets , that it was a bit of a shock .
The steadfast ironies of playwright Alan Bennett ’ s diaries and his unstinting defence of national institutions such as the NHS and the library services of England , long pre-date the current critical moment .
And so many poets , novelists @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ethnic , gender and cultural backgrounds stand for versions of England and Englishness much more inclusive , challenging and open than the caricatures presently on display .
But perhaps more than this , the political ineptitudes and moral jiggery-pokery of Johnson ’ s government will become increasingly more obvious as the social impact of the pandemic and Brexit merge and filter through the stunned levels of mainstream multicultural English society .
The lethal mix of arrogance and incompetence is reminiscent of Edward Heath ’ s short-lived premiership which produced such civic damage , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ but also in the manner in which it led towards Thatcher ’ s regime and the self-inflicted Poll Tax mess , among many other national blunders .
Maybe I ’ m being overly pessimistic but is there anything convincing in the current UK government to inspire even the most restrained and reasonable of Tory voters , wherever they are , watching what is happening to their country , and knowing full well the drama unfolding before their eyes has nothing to do with Europe this time around .
As Lisa Appignanesi presciently put @ @ @ @ @ @ @ : ‘ Wresting control from [ the EU ] seemed to provide an excuse for being out of control at home .
It was not so much a question of ‘ taking control ’ back to Parliament as of unleashing self-control in the name of ‘ righteous ’ rage ’ .
Cue Mr.Cummings , entering into the garden , 10 Downing Street , somewhat like an actor in a Jacobean drama .
Gerald Dawe ’ s The Sound of the Shuttle : Essays on Cultural Belonging and Protestantism in Northern Ireland was published @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
“ John O Gaunt ” by jack_pickard is licensed under CC BY-ND

I am sure there will be many who are in the ‘Told-You-So’ mode as the current administration in Westminster lurches from mishandling to mishandling since the Johnson election propelled, with a substantial majority, the Brexit-bearing wing of the Tory party into power. The fact that many of the leading figures have gone AWOL, and left an inexperienced and uncertain leadership in place, brings a worrying reality into focus.
Brought up on the understanding that London ‘knows best’ is not something easily flushed out of the collective system. I, for one, think back to growing up as a young boy in 1950s Belfast with a sense that everything from medical to educational to cultural ‘policy’ was handled by experts, with real knowledge and the authority to make informed decisions concerning ordinary people’s health and educational opportunities, irrespective of their class, gender or ethnic background. Dream on. It was a cruel fantasy but the legacy of which the sixties did, in part, reflect and consolidate until, in Northern Ireland, the Troubles blew the lid off the whole thing.
The corporate Thatcherite years which followed were meant to produce a new technocratic revolution in the renovated UK. Did that happen? I don’t know. But in the re-run of the endless anxiety and tug-of-war about where England actually sits in the political order of post-Cold War Europe, we are left, those of us schooled in that egalitarian dream-time, admitting that the England of today looks, under the Johnson administration, already tattered and tawdry, indeed inept and under-resourced and drawing the country into a much deeper sense of crisis than that which Brexit was reputedly going to override.
The sunny uplands are looking more and more like a mess of empty promises, false hype, and unimpressive planning. How this will all pan out in real-time is for others, who are experts in economic policy and global trade relations, to analyse and project.
However, one shouldn’t allow the Johnson government to get in the way of the long-standing cultural and intellectual relationships between both Northern Ireland and the Republic and England. The academic connections pre-date the EU and will outlast Brexit, if enough thought goes into the unfolding situation.
For instance, the ties of historical links between Irish writing and England – English publishers, theatres, festivals, and all the other literary-cultural outlets – are just too important to become frozen or, even worse, subject to the lies on buses which delivered the Brexit-bound fantasy to the politics of the UK.
Whatever about our differing views on many things the opportunities which English centres of cultural activity and recognition have offered to generations of Irish writers are indispensable. And now, maybe more than before, the Irish reciprocation might well need revisioning and rebooting.
Recently, reading Hilary Mantel’s fiction, literary journalism and memoir brought to mind such an utterly different worldview to that currently on display in the major media outlets, that it was a bit of a shock.
The steadfast ironies of playwright Alan Bennett’s diaries and his unstinting defence of national institutions such as the NHS and the library services of England, long pre-date the current critical moment. And so many poets, novelists, dramatists, from so many different ethnic, gender and cultural backgrounds stand for versions of England and Englishness much more inclusive, challenging and open than the caricatures presently on display.
But perhaps more than this, the political ineptitudes and moral jiggery-pokery of Johnson’s government will become increasingly more obvious as the social impact of the pandemic and Brexit merge and filter through the stunned levels of mainstream multicultural English society.
The lethal mix of arrogance and incompetence is reminiscent of Edward Heath’s short-lived premiership which produced such civic damage, particularly in regard to Northern Ireland, but also in the manner in which it led towards Thatcher’s regime and the self-inflicted Poll Tax mess, among many other national blunders.
Maybe I’m being overly pessimistic but is there anything convincing in the current UK government to inspire even the most restrained and reasonable of Tory voters, wherever they are, watching what is happening to their country, and knowing full well the drama unfolding before their eyes has nothing to do with Europe this time around.
As Lisa Appignanesi presciently put it in Everyday Madness (2018): ‘Wresting control from [the EU] seemed to provide an excuse for being out of control at home. It was not so much a question of ‘taking control’ back to Parliament as of unleashing self-control in the name of ‘righteous’ rage’.
Cue Mr.Cummings, entering into the garden, 10 Downing Street, somewhat like an actor in a Jacobean drama.
————————————
Gerald Dawe’s The Sound of the Shuttle: Essays on Cultural Belonging and Protestantism in Northern Ireland was published by Irish Academic Press earlier this year.
“John O Gaunt” by jack_pickard is licensed under CC BY-ND


sluggerotoole--2020-05-30--The COVID-19 R number in Northern Ireland has drifted back up towards 1 since the partial lifting of

The COVID-19 R number in Northern Ireland has drifted back up towards 1 since the partial lifting of the lockdown restrictions

The COVID-19 basic reproduction number , or R , has become the most crucial metric for policymakers as they start to tentatively reopen the economy following the lockdown measures that were implemented in March to halt the spread of the disease .
Lockdown measures will only be relaxed when the R value is below one .
To attempt to calculate the R value for Northern Ireland , I used Imperial University ’ s EpiEstim app , which provides estimates for the reproduction number from daily case count data and serial interval estimates from analysis on a COVID-19 outbreak in Singapore @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s R value as of the 28th of May to be 0.88 , close to 0.9 which is the current official estimate .
The chart at the top of the post shows how Northern Ireland ’ s estimated R value has changed since the start of the outbreak .
The tool uses a 7 day window to calculate R. Seven days after the lockdown restrictions were implemented in Northern Ireland R was around 2.6 ; it fell below 1 around the 24th of April .
The first phase of the lifting of lockdown @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Since the start of the lifting of restrictions , the R value has increased from around 0.64 to 0.88 ; although the figure was as high as 0.99 earlier this week .
The figure for R is higher in Northern Ireland than it is in other parts of the UK and Ireland .
The chart below shows data for the Republic of Ireland , England and Scotland ( I couldn ’ t find easily accessible data for Wales ) .
The R value dropped below 1 in all these regions around the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sitting at 0.75 in England , 0.58 in Scotland and 0.67 in the Republic .
Whilst the estimation of R using this method is not an exact science , the figures here are in line with other estimates such as the regional R numbers published here .
Across Northern Ireland as a whole the R value is around 0.9 , but there are significant regional variations even within Northern Ireland ’ s comparatively small area .
The chart below shows estimates for R across each of Northern Ireland ’ s council areas since @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of new cases in the Derry & Strabane and Fermanagh & Omagh council areas has dwindled down to zero over the course of May .
In Belfast , Lisburn & Castlereagh , and Ards & North Down the R value has stayed well below 1 , even as restrictions have been relaxed .
In Newry , Mourne & Down and Antrim & Newtownabbey , the R value appears to be very close to 1 .
More concerning are the four council areas where the R value appears to be higher than 1.35 , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ appearing to display a rapid increase in the R value since restrictions were partially lifted .
The R number appears to vary significantly within Northern Ireland , and it may be appropriate to consider lifting restrictions in some areas such as Derry , West Tyrone and Fermanagh before other areas such as the north coast .
With the R value in Northern Ireland so close to 1 , a blanket lifting of restrictions could cause the R value to increase significantly above 1 , risking another wave of infections .
In England , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 0.75 ) than it was in Northern Ireland when restrictions began to be lifted .
With the lifting of restrictions in England planned for Monday , an increase in R similar to what was seen in Northern Ireland could see R rising above 1 yet again .
The R value rising above 1 could force the government to re-impose restrictions on meeting people from outside your household and on non-essential retail .
It is imperative that restrictions are eased in such a way that R stays comfortably below 1 .

The COVID-19 basic reproduction number, or R, has become the most crucial metric for policymakers as they start to tentatively reopen the economy following the lockdown measures that were implemented in March to halt the spread of the disease. Lockdown measures will only be relaxed when the R value is below one.
To attempt to calculate the R value for Northern Ireland, I used Imperial University’s EpiEstim app, which provides estimates for the reproduction number from daily case count data and serial interval estimates from analysis on a COVID-19 outbreak in Singapore. The tool estimated Northern Ireland’s R value as of the 28th of May to be 0.88, close to 0.9 which is the current official estimate.
The chart at the top of the post shows how Northern Ireland’s estimated R value has changed since the start of the outbreak. The tool uses a 7 day window to calculate R. Seven days after the lockdown restrictions were implemented in Northern Ireland R was around 2.6; it fell below 1 around the 24th of April.
The first phase of the lifting of lockdown restrictions commenced on the 19th of May. Since the start of the lifting of restrictions, the R value has increased from around 0.64 to 0.88; although the figure was as high as 0.99 earlier this week.
The figure for R is higher in Northern Ireland than it is in other parts of the UK and Ireland. The chart below shows data for the Republic of Ireland, England and Scotland (I couldn’t find easily accessible data for Wales). The R value dropped below 1 in all these regions around the middle of April, and is now sitting at 0.75 in England, 0.58 in Scotland and 0.67 in the Republic.
Whilst the estimation of R using this method is not an exact science, the figures here are in line with other estimates such as the regional R numbers published here.
Across Northern Ireland as a whole the R value is around 0.9, but there are significant regional variations even within Northern Ireland’s comparatively small area. The chart below shows estimates for R across each of Northern Ireland’s council areas since the 7th of May.
The count of new cases in the Derry & Strabane and Fermanagh & Omagh council areas has dwindled down to zero over the course of May. In Belfast, Lisburn & Castlereagh, and Ards & North Down the R value has stayed well below 1, even as restrictions have been relaxed.
In Newry, Mourne & Down and Antrim & Newtownabbey, the R value appears to be very close to 1. More concerning are the four council areas where the R value appears to be higher than 1.35, with the Causeway Coast & Glens area appearing to display a rapid increase in the R value since restrictions were partially lifted.
The R number appears to vary significantly within Northern Ireland, and it may be appropriate to consider lifting restrictions in some areas such as Derry, West Tyrone and Fermanagh before other areas such as the north coast. With the R value in Northern Ireland so close to 1, a blanket lifting of restrictions could cause the R value to increase significantly above 1, risking another wave of infections.
In England, the R value is higher now (0.75) than it was in Northern Ireland when restrictions began to be lifted. With the lifting of restrictions in England planned for Monday, an increase in R similar to what was seen in Northern Ireland could see R rising above 1 yet again.
The R value rising above 1 could force the government to re-impose restrictions on meeting people from outside your household and on non-essential retail. It is imperative that restrictions are eased in such a way that R stays comfortably below 1.


sluggerotoole--2020-05-30--Tiochfaidh ar Laugh – A brief history of Irish comedy…

At times like these when so many of us are simply not amused humour can often be the best medicine… After the ground-breaking Father Ted hit our screens a quarter of a century ago , Irish comedy shows tended to keep a low profile within the wider televisual world .
However in recent years we ’ ve had something of a renaissance , now that three Irish comedies have made their mark on UK TV .
The most popular of these shows ( purely in ratings terms at least ) is the pantomimesque fourth wall-breaking farce Mrs Brown ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ drag as the titular foul-mouthed Dublin matriarch along with various other members of his family in supporting roles .
Loved by the masses , but universally panned by the critics Mrs Brown is very much a marmite-style show .
But whether you love it or hate , there ’ s no denying that O ’ Carroll knows the secret behind a winning formula .
Derry Girls in contrast has received much critical acclaim in its coming-of-age portrayal of a group of schoolgirls set in the 1990s .
And it ’ s also helped @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Tommy Tiernan and Kevin McAleer .
Although not the funniest thing I ’ ve ever seen , these young Foyleside ladies have an energy and warmth to them which can be quite infectious at times .
Of course when we think specifically of contemporary Northern Irish comedy , the Hole in the Wall/Give my Head Peace/Blame Game brigade will usually spring to mind .
On their regular tours of Norn Iron/The Pravince/The North/The Occupied Six Counties/Ulster minus three/Our Wee Country ( delete as appropriate ) they can easily fill local theatres from Strabane @ @ @ @ @ @ @ but the very narrow parochial nature of their “ green v orange/prod v taig ” style of humour means you won ’ t see them performing in Letterkenny or Dundalk – nor for that matter in Leeds or Dundee .
Another local comic Patrick Kielty was to find this out to his cost during one of his early appearances on a BBC show .
A critic in one of the English broadsheets pointed out that jokes about Orangemen marching down roads may go down well in Lurgan – but not so well in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ though he does seem to have successfully branched out and since gained a well-deserved reputation as an acclaimed documentary maker .
However of three Irish sitcoms currently blazing a trail on British TV , my personal favourite is The Young Offenders ( available on BBC iPlayer ) which follows the misadventures of two dim , but likeable juvenile delinquents from a Cork city council estate .
Their frequent run-ins with the law , the headmaster and local thugs can verge on the surreal and the farcical .
It won ’ t be everyone @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it ’ s certainly original .
A few decades ago the words “ Irish comedy ” would have conjured up images of old school gag merchants like Frank “ that ’ s a cracker ” Carson , Roy “ it ’ s good , but it ’ s not right ” Walker and Jimmy “ and there ’ s more ” Cricket ; comics who cut their teeth in the smoke-filled northern English working mens clubs and the end-of-the-pier theatres in run-down seaside resorts .
Then along came the revolutionary Dave Allen – @ @ @ @ @ @ @ virtual pariah in his native land largely due to his tendency to make fun of religion .
How times have changed !
So when Dermot Morgan appeared on the scene with his portrayal of Ireland ’ s favourite fictional priest , you could say that things really had come full circle .
And today we have a new generation of stand-ups like Aisling Bea , Grainne Maguire , David O ’ Doherty and Andrew Maxwell who continue to keep UK audiences amused in the comedy clubs and numerous panel shows which tend to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and pandemics aren ’ t exactly wile craic – but long may the laughter go on .

At times like these when so many of us are simply not amused humour can often be the best medicine…
After the ground-breaking Father Ted hit our screens a quarter of a century ago, Irish comedy shows tended to keep a low profile within the wider televisual world. However in recent years we’ve had something of a renaissance, now that three Irish comedies have made their mark on UK TV.
The most popular of these shows (purely in ratings terms at least) is the pantomimesque fourth wall-breaking farce Mrs Brown’s Boys starring Brendan O’Carroll in drag as the titular foul-mouthed Dublin matriarch along with various other members of his family in supporting roles. Loved by the masses, but universally panned by the critics Mrs Brown is very much a marmite-style show. But whether you love it or hate, there’s no denying that O’Carroll knows the secret behind a winning formula.
Derry Girls in contrast has received much critical acclaim in its coming-of-age portrayal of a group of schoolgirls set in the 1990s. And it’s also helped revive the careers of ageing comics like Tommy Tiernan and Kevin McAleer. Although not the funniest thing I’ve ever seen, these young Foyleside ladies have an energy and warmth to them which can be quite infectious at times.
Of course when we think specifically of contemporary Northern Irish comedy, the Hole in the Wall/Give my Head Peace/Blame Game brigade will usually spring to mind. On their regular tours of Norn Iron/The Pravince/The North/The Occupied Six Counties/Ulster minus three/Our Wee Country (delete as appropriate) they can easily fill local theatres from Strabane to Newry via Ballymena and Portadown, but the very narrow parochial nature of their “green v orange/prod v taig” style of humour means you won’t see them performing in Letterkenny or Dundalk – nor for that matter in Leeds or Dundee. Another local comic Patrick Kielty was to find this out to his cost during one of his early appearances on a BBC show. A critic in one of the English broadsheets pointed out that jokes about Orangemen marching down roads may go down well in Lurgan – but not so well in Luton. To be fair to Kielty though he does seem to have successfully branched out and since gained a well-deserved reputation as an acclaimed documentary maker.
However of three Irish sitcoms currently blazing a trail on British TV, my personal favourite is The Young Offenders (available on BBC iPlayer) which follows the misadventures of two dim, but likeable juvenile delinquents from a Cork city council estate. Their frequent run-ins with the law, the headmaster and local thugs can verge on the surreal and the farcical. It won’t be everyone’s cup of tea, but it’s certainly original.
A few decades ago the words “Irish comedy” would have conjured up images of old school gag merchants like Frank “that’s a cracker” Carson, Roy “it’s good, but it’s not right” Walker and Jimmy “and there’s more” Cricket; comics who cut their teeth in the smoke-filled northern English working mens clubs and the end-of-the-pier theatres in run-down seaside resorts. Then along came the revolutionary Dave Allen – hugely popular in Britain, but a virtual pariah in his native land largely due to his tendency to make fun of religion. How times have changed! So when Dermot Morgan appeared on the scene with his portrayal of Ireland’s favourite fictional priest, you could say that things really had come full circle.
And today we have a new generation of stand-ups like Aisling Bea, Grainne Maguire, David O’Doherty and Andrew Maxwell who continue to keep UK audiences amused in the comedy clubs and numerous panel shows which tend to dominate the schedules these days. Lockdowns and pandemics aren’t exactly wile craic – but long may the laughter go on.


sluggerotoole--2020-05-30--Cancer and Me – A look back with candour…

It ’ s time .
Time to look back with candour on the thirty odd years since my breast cancer diagnosis and time , too , to write it down the way I experienced it , warts and all .
But let ’ s start by getting one thing straight – I have not been on some kind of ‘ journey ’ cancer or otherwise ; nor have I been fighting some almighty battle that is somehow meant to define my strength as an individual .
I have simply been getting on with life just like everyone else has to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bad and the indifferent along the way and hoping to manage a few healthier years ahead .
I ’ d like readers to enter the world of the post-breast cancer patient for just a little while and really identify with what it means , because a lot of what is written in the media is often hackneyed and not always completely honest .
When I look back at my thirty-seven-year-old self , I see the naive , ignorant ( in the proper sense ) and frazzled housewife I was then , with two @ @ @ @ @ @ @ working away from home .
Receiving a cancer diagnosis though , did not devastate my life .
It only made the logistics of everyday living seem rather more complicated .
The time in hospital for surgery , the radiotherapy sessions and finally the months of chemotherapy that followed created the need for a whole new way of family thinking and I am forever grateful that those around me stayed calm and supportive throughout .
Hindsight , of course , is a wonderful thing and I hope I ’ ve learned something in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on less considered aspects of the disease .
For breast cancer is not only about the removal of a breast , it is also about the emotional loss that accompanies it and so much more that affects partners , children , close family and friends .
Relationships suffer .
Misunderstandings flourish .
Life becomes an ocean of changing tides without the certainty of when they will occur .
In short , most of us need help and advice to deal with it and there is no shame in asking for counselling if you @ @ @ @ @ @ @ post-treatment years , I wrote of and spoke publicly about breast cancer incessantly .
For a long time I was happy to campaign for patients ’ rights .
I was angry .
I was impassioned .
I was willing to offer something back for all the assistance and support I ’ d received from our National Health Service but I also put my head above the parapet concerning aspects of treatment I thought could be improved .
If there was any ‘ fighting ’ involved in my recovery it was to try and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ carers alike and there was most definitely a need to have something worthwhile to focus on .
Yet in retrospect that perfectionism makes me feel uncomfortable now and I have had to dig deep in order to acknowledge my arrogance at the time .
A further realisation came when , after I finally stepped away from that whole cancer world , my husband gave a tangible sigh of relief .
I had seemingly forgotten my own conviction that I was not the only person involved in our on-going predicament .
During these past @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and consistent angle about breast cancer that the media highlights .
This involves stories of celebrities who have been diagnosed , undergone treatment and later ‘ beaten ’ the disease .
Truthfully , I was never one of those who could ever believe they ’ d beaten it , not least of all because so much is dependent on the stage , the grade and the type of cancer it is when first discovered .
So , although I ’ m not suggesting we should be without hope ( for hope is an @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it needs to be measured with a degree of realism that can also actually help us cope .
Even now at the age of sixty-five , I feel that I can never be complacent about my cancer recurring but that does not mean I ’ m fatalistic .
In fact , it probably makes my life more ‘ present ’ when I ’ m aware the disease could re-visit at any time .
Part of my treatment involved an oophorectomy ( removal of the ovaries ) .
It ’ s not an operation @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a woman in her mid-thirties and I was certainly unprepared for the ongoing problems an overnight menopause created in the long term ( including osteoporosis , premature aging , failing libido ) .
So decisions made during treatment need to be informed and based on accurate assessments of what may happen in the future , otherwise , the cure can become more problematic than the cause .
One of the inevitabilities of living with cancer is the sad reality that you will know someone who dies from it .
In my case that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ friends .
We shared many confidences together , argued a lot and laughed a great deal more and I miss them still .
In truth , there will always be within me , a guilt that lingers because they were not as lucky as me and perhaps this is a burden I may never fully come to terms with .
Yet cancer has , in an odd sort of way , altered my life for the good .
Not that it necessarily transformed me into some sort of saint but I have been @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the detritus of pettiness , partiality and discontent that often clogged it up before .
My sincere hope is that one day , because of continued medical breakthroughs , I will be able to say , ‘ I had breast cancer ’ , but for now I ’ m simply grateful for the healthy intervening years that have been afforded to me .
My life has owned its many , many blessings and I think I ’ m content enough with that .
Of course , there is no right or wrong way @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cancer diagnosis and how we handle life ’ s trials depends on a great many factors ranging from personality type to family circumstances .
However , the ongoing situation with coronavirus has meant that patients are presently facing untold stress as cancer services across the board have seen unprecedented disruption .
Vital screening services have been shelved , operations and treatments postponed and there is now an increased likelihood that many cases will be diagnosed at a later stage making them harder to treat .
The public seems reticent about seeking advice from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ their health , such as abnormal bleeding or a suspicious lump .
But please , if you ’ re reading this and are worried about something you might consider insignificant , do go and seek help .
I am reminded of when I found my own lump and said to my husband that I ’ d wait a while to see if it grew before going to show it the doctor .
I ’ ll always remember the look of astonishment on his face when he said – you ’ ve found something @ @ @ @ @ @ @ seen to – tomorrow !
I did as I was told .
I think he probably saved my life .
Photo by marijana1 is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA

It’s time. Time to look back with candour on the thirty odd years since my breast cancer diagnosis and time, too, to write it down the way I experienced it, warts and all. But let’s start by getting one thing straight – I have not been on some kind of ‘journey’ cancer or otherwise; nor have I been fighting some almighty battle that is somehow meant to define my strength as an individual. I have simply been getting on with life just like everyone else has to – coping with the good, the bad and the indifferent along the way and hoping to manage a few healthier years ahead. I’d like readers to enter the world of the post-breast cancer patient for just a little while and really identify with what it means, because a lot of what is written in the media is often hackneyed and not always completely honest.
When I look back at my thirty-seven-year-old self, I see the naive, ignorant (in the proper sense) and frazzled housewife I was then, with two young children in tow and a husband working away from home. Receiving a cancer diagnosis though, did not devastate my life. It only made the logistics of everyday living seem rather more complicated. The time in hospital for surgery, the radiotherapy sessions and finally the months of chemotherapy that followed created the need for a whole new way of family thinking and I am forever grateful that those around me stayed calm and supportive throughout.
Hindsight, of course, is a wonderful thing and I hope I’ve learned something in the intervening years that might throw some light on less considered aspects of the disease. For breast cancer is not only about the removal of a breast, it is also about the emotional loss that accompanies it and so much more that affects partners, children, close family and friends. Relationships suffer. Misunderstandings flourish. Life becomes an ocean of changing tides without the certainty of when they will occur. In short, most of us need help and advice to deal with it and there is no shame in asking for counselling if you require it.
In the early, post-treatment years, I wrote of and spoke publicly about breast cancer incessantly. For a long time I was happy to campaign for patients’ rights. I was angry. I was impassioned. I was willing to offer something back for all the assistance and support I’d received from our National Health Service but I also put my head above the parapet concerning aspects of treatment I thought could be improved. If there was any ‘fighting’ involved in my recovery it was to try and improve the system for both patients and carers alike and there was most definitely a need to have something worthwhile to focus on. Yet in retrospect that perfectionism makes me feel uncomfortable now and I have had to dig deep in order to acknowledge my arrogance at the time. A further realisation came when, after I finally stepped away from that whole cancer world, my husband gave a tangible sigh of relief. I had seemingly forgotten my own conviction that I was not the only person involved in our on-going predicament.
During these past few decades there has been one recurring and consistent angle about breast cancer that the media highlights. This involves stories of celebrities who have been diagnosed, undergone treatment and later ‘beaten’ the disease. Truthfully, I was never one of those who could ever believe they’d beaten it, not least of all because so much is dependent on the stage, the grade and the type of cancer it is when first discovered. So, although I’m not suggesting we should be without hope (for hope is an essential part of healing), but it needs to be measured with a degree of realism that can also actually help us cope. Even now at the age of sixty-five, I feel that I can never be complacent about my cancer recurring but that does not mean I’m fatalistic. In fact, it probably makes my life more ‘present’ when I’m aware the disease could re-visit at any time.
Part of my treatment involved an oophorectomy (removal of the ovaries). It’s not an operation to be taken lightly, especially for a woman in her mid-thirties and I was certainly unprepared for the ongoing problems an overnight menopause created in the long term (including osteoporosis, premature aging, failing libido). So decisions made during treatment need to be informed and based on accurate assessments of what may happen in the future, otherwise, the cure can become more problematic than the cause.
One of the inevitabilities of living with cancer is the sad reality that you will know someone who dies from it. In my case that has been several of my very dear friends. We shared many confidences together, argued a lot and laughed a great deal more and I miss them still. In truth, there will always be within me, a guilt that lingers because they were not as lucky as me and perhaps this is a burden I may never fully come to terms with.
Yet cancer has, in an odd sort of way, altered my life for the good. Not that it necessarily transformed me into some sort of saint but I have been forced to confront life head-on, erasing the detritus of pettiness, partiality and discontent that often clogged it up before. My sincere hope is that one day, because of continued medical breakthroughs, I will be able to say, ‘I had breast cancer’, but for now I’m simply grateful for the healthy intervening years that have been afforded to me. My life has owned its many, many blessings and I think I’m content enough with that.
Of course, there is no right or wrong way for any individual to deal with a cancer diagnosis and how we handle life’s trials depends on a great many factors ranging from personality type to family circumstances. However, the ongoing situation with coronavirus has meant that patients are presently facing untold stress as cancer services across the board have seen unprecedented disruption. Vital screening services have been shelved, operations and treatments postponed and there is now an increased likelihood that many cases will be diagnosed at a later stage making them harder to treat. The public seems reticent about seeking advice from their GP on discovering something worrying about their health, such as abnormal bleeding or a suspicious lump. But please, if you’re reading this and are worried about something you might consider insignificant, do go and seek help. I am reminded of when I found my own lump and said to my husband that I’d wait a while to see if it grew before going to show it the doctor. I’ll always remember the look of astonishment on his face when he said – you’ve found something unusual, so go and get it seen to – tomorrow! I did as I was told.
I think he probably saved my life.
Photo by marijana1 is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA


sluggerotoole--2020-05-31--What is the evidence for and cost of lockdown?

Many are doubtlessly bored with protracted and pedantic discussions on the rights and wrongs of lockdown as a tool to mitigate Covid19 deaths .
No one is dispassionate ; we are either for and resistant to opening up or against and demanding our economy and our grannies back .
As England moves to lessen restrictions there are concerns from SAGE advisers that now is too early accompanied by a whiff there might be protest resignations from our academic boffins if their views are not respected .
To most European governments it was clear ; to do nothing would have been @ @ @ @ @ @ @ more lives they would save .
Ivor Cummings , better known as the Fat Emperor for his promotion of low carb diets to reduce heart deaths , has an opposing view which is , he claims , dispassionately based on only the data and logic .
Image below is from Ivor Cummins Ivor ’ s conclusion is that this novel coronavirus once spreading in the population runs its course .
Data from a number of sources confirms his view that lockdown after the virus is moving in the population has had little , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ compared to basic distancing and good handwashing .
Excess deaths in Europe in 2018 when Covid-19 did not exist were 140,000 and this year 2020 are 161,000 and it ’ s not finished yet .
So Covid-19 is a killer there is no dispute .
Covid-19 has given us a pointy painful peak of deaths in the last two months mostly in groups vulnerable to the infection .
Ivor argues that the milder winter of 2019 , with fewer than normal excess deaths , provided a cohort more vulnerable to Covid-19 once it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the toxic infectious environments of nursing homes and hospitals , we find that lockdown has not had much impact compared to social distancing as is happening in Sweden .
The grocery trade , for example , had few if any workers off sick because of Covid-19 and these are people on the front-line 8-10 hours a day mixing with each other and bumping into us getting a pint of milk , a packet of sausages or a dozen cans of larger .
Ivor notes countries that have reversed their lockdowns for example Denmark @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that the death curves for those countries just continues to do their thing that is fall without the dreaded second spike in infection rates followed by deaths which UK scientists are so worried about .
If Ivor is right , and he has a number of high profiles experts on his side including Nobel Prizewinning Stanford Professor Michael Levitt , then lockdown has only provided about 5 % more to the reduction in deaths compared to sensible social distancing .
Professor Levitt claims the excess burden of death from coronavirus COVID-19 is closer @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
I can not fault his logic but really hope that he is missing something because we all put some considerable effort into this lockdown and we would like to think it was worth it .
In an article a few weeks ago in the Spectator Lionel Shriver makes a similar point that Covid-19 is surprisingly nosocomial meaning it is spread in healthcare setting of care homes and hospitals .
Infection from this virus results from the close-up sustained exposure that we never get from strangers in supermarkets .
Both Ivor and Lionel @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will occur because or health service and or economy have been locked down .
They predict excess deaths from heart disease , cancers and mental health in coming years will swamp the Covid-19 death spike .
I suppose we need to look back and see why we locked down in the first place and the main reason was to stop the health system being swamped .
We have now got the necessary ICU capacity and the empty Nightingale hospitals that were required by the statistical models so opening up society and the economy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and the media did exceedingly well in lockdown was keeping people on board .
The message was about saving lives and we never seemed to stray into discussions that saving lives only meant postponing deaths .
As one of my critics in another blog stated it was a no brainer ; if you had a choice to die today or in six months which would you choose .
This is certainly a good point but at what cost we must ask and then we get into the ethics .
If a new drug @ @ @ @ @ @ @ costs more than £30,000 for a quality adjusted life year ( QALY ) the NHS is unlikely to pay for it as it is not deemed to be value for money .
I ’ m sure that someone is already working out the costs per QALY of lockdown and when we take into account the hit to the economy it will make £30K seem like spare change .
“ Thank you essential workers !
” by spurekar is licensed under CC BY

Many are doubtlessly bored with protracted and pedantic discussions on the rights and wrongs of lockdown as a tool to mitigate Covid19 deaths. No one is dispassionate; we are either for and resistant to opening up or against and demanding our economy and our grannies back. As England moves to lessen restrictions there are concerns from SAGE advisers that now is too early accompanied by a whiff there might be protest resignations from our academic boffins if their views are not respected. To most European governments it was clear; to do nothing would have been criminal and the more they did the more lives they would save.
Ivor Cummings, better known as the Fat Emperor for his promotion of low carb diets to reduce heart deaths, has an opposing view which is, he claims, dispassionately based on only the data and logic.
Image below is from Ivor Cummins
Ivor’s conclusion is that this novel coronavirus once spreading in the population runs its course. Data from a number of sources confirms his view that lockdown after the virus is moving in the population has had little, if any, additional impact on death compared to basic distancing and good handwashing. Excess deaths in Europe in 2018 when Covid-19 did not exist were 140,000 and this year 2020 are 161,000 and it’s not finished yet. So Covid-19 is a killer there is no dispute. Covid-19 has given us a pointy painful peak of deaths in the last two months mostly in groups vulnerable to the infection. Ivor argues that the milder winter of 2019, with fewer than normal excess deaths, provided a cohort more vulnerable to Covid-19 once it appeared. If we look away from the toxic infectious environments of nursing homes and hospitals, we find that lockdown has not had much impact compared to social distancing as is happening in Sweden.
The grocery trade, for example, had few if any workers off sick because of Covid-19 and these are people on the front-line 8-10 hours a day mixing with each other and bumping into us getting a pint of milk, a packet of sausages or a dozen cans of larger.
Ivor notes countries that have reversed their lockdowns for example Denmark and to a greater degree Israel suggesting that the death curves for those countries just continues to do their thing that is fall without the dreaded second spike in infection rates followed by deaths which UK scientists are so worried about. If Ivor is right, and he has a number of high profiles experts on his side including Nobel Prizewinning Stanford Professor Michael Levitt, then lockdown has only provided about 5% more to the reduction in deaths compared to sensible social distancing. Professor Levitt claims the excess burden of death from coronavirus COVID-19 is closer to a month than to a year. I cannot fault his logic but really hope that he is missing something because we all put some considerable effort into this lockdown and we would like to think it was worth it.
In an article a few weeks ago in the Spectator Lionel Shriver makes a similar point that Covid-19 is surprisingly nosocomial meaning it is spread in healthcare setting of care homes and hospitals. Infection from this virus results from the close-up sustained exposure that we never get from strangers in supermarkets. Both Ivor and Lionel are concerned about the collateral deaths that will occur because or health service and or economy have been locked down. They predict excess deaths from heart disease, cancers and mental health in coming years will swamp the Covid-19 death spike.
I suppose we need to look back and see why we locked down in the first place and the main reason was to stop the health system being swamped. We have now got the necessary ICU capacity and the empty Nightingale hospitals that were required by the statistical models so opening up society and the economy can happen.
One thing that government and the media did exceedingly well in lockdown was keeping people on board. The message was about saving lives and we never seemed to stray into discussions that saving lives only meant postponing deaths. As one of my critics in another blog stated it was a no brainer; if you had a choice to die today or in six months which would you choose. This is certainly a good point but at what cost we must ask and then we get into the ethics. If a new drug or surgical intervention is found and it costs more than £30,000 for a quality adjusted life year (QALY) the NHS is unlikely to pay for it as it is not deemed to be value for money. I’m sure that someone is already working out the costs per QALY of lockdown and when we take into account the hit to the economy it will make £30K seem like spare change.
“Thank you essential workers!” by spurekar is licensed under CC BY


sluggerotoole--2020-05-31--Unionism needs a Reformation of its own, one that turns it into a movement that is fit for the moder

Unionism needs a Reformation of its own, one that turns it into a movement that is fit for the modern era…

I woke up early on the 9th of June 2017 to tune into the election coverage and see how the new UK government was shaping up .
All of the Northern Ireland seats had been decided before I had retired the night before and it had been a reasonably good night for Unionism taking 11 of 18 seats , with the DUP capturing 10 of them .
However , when I tuned into the election coverage , I was alarmed to see the DUP included within the election graphic on the bottom , which included the big parties and their @ @ @ @ @ @ @ covered at a national level , so an anxious feeling came over me .
This feeling was justified when I discovered the interest in the DUP was because they would hold the balance of power as the election results had created a hung parliament .
It may seem strange that as a Unionist this concerned me , but there were two key reasons for this , namely ( a ) I didn ’ t feel the DUP were equipped for this responsibility and ( b ) Northern Irish Unionism does not always travel @ @ @ @ @ @ @ wanted to discuss today .
There is no doubt that political Unionism drives and has driven the Unionist movement since Northern Ireland ’ s inception in 1921 .
Over the years this has increasingly became a problem as political Unionism is outdated , too often interwoven with scandal and incompetence .
For what still seems like a majority in Northern Ireland who want to maintain the Union with Great Britain there is a greater reluctance than ever before to vote for a political Unionist party .
Many are arriving at the conclusion that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ could actually undermine the integrity of the Union .
I wanted to explore some of the key areas where Unionism has failed in recent times and where it is still failing .
I will admit that I was genuinely excited when Arlene Foster took over the reins of Unionism from Peter Robinson .
Peter Robinson ’ s tenure had become troubled while his appeal amongst the electorate was limited .
However , someone like Foster could broaden Unionism ’ s appeal and modernise it in the process .
Unfortunately , this never happened @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Foster ’ s tenure .
Unionism has had to be forced into changes by Westminster with regards to same-sex marriage , Ms Foster was centrally involved in the RHI scandal and has failed to address internal scandal with her party .
Unfortunately , her enduring legacy is likely to be the botched Brexit negotiations which have resulted in a sea border between Northern Ireland and Great Britain .
The DUP has also declined in seats under Ms Fosters tenure and while I have much respect for her handling of the Covid-19 pandemic , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of leadership .
Ms Foster , as the leader of Unionism , remains in a weakened position despite her handling of the Covid19 pandemic and as the sea border comes to fruition her position further declines .
It is fair to say that Unionism has not been blessed with effective leadership over the years , the one standout exception was David Trimble whilst leader of the UUP , his contribution in moving Unionism into a position of power-sharing has too often been overlooked and underplayed .
Unionism is often very clear on what @ @ @ @ @ @ @ vague and indeed elusive on what it does want .
This was evident during the Brexit negotiations ; the DUP were against the backstop but never put forward what they did want and , in the end , what was delivered was a constitutional crisis for Unionism .
Unionism has also failed to move with the times , by creating a Northern Ireland at ease with itself where cultural aspects such as the Irish language could be protected , they failed to understand that such actions would in actuality strengthen the union .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ , by opposing the Irish language and other such proposals they were undermining Northern Ireland ’ s position within the UK as people felt that to get these rights , Ireland needed to be united .
Unionism needs a clear vision on its plans for the future that more reflects the Northern Ireland of 2020 rather than the Free Presbyterian church of 1960 .
One of the reasons Arlene Foster has remained as the leader for so long despite a troubled tenure is the obvious point that there is no natural successor .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ potential replacement and was seen as a rising star before he left the political arena .
Losing Nigel Dodds from frontline politics was also a significant body blow to Unionism as the Westminster team look rudderless at present and gaff prone .
There are of course many talented people within both the UUP and DUP and Jim Allister of the TUV is a standout performer within the Assembly .
However , taking a look at the talent within Sinn Fein , Alliance and the SDLP – political Unionism is certainly coming up short @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to why it is unable to attract talented members into its ranks and is the current lack of talent contributing to Unionisms overall decline ?
Most people will be all too familiar with the same old faces from Unionism who appear on radio programmes or on TV panels and whom generally perform very poorly , damaging the Unionist brand in the process and turning many people off Unionism .
It is particularly galling when someone representing Unionism is clearly ill-informed but is still putting forward and incoherent case .
Unionist parties need to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are across their brief and who can perform well within the media .
Many Unionists now turn off when a Unionist appears on TV or on the radio as the cringe factor and the roasting , they are likely to get is usually too much to endure and this has resulted in Unionism being lampooned .
Unionists such as Alex Kane and indeed Doug Beattie are an exception to this rule – Sam McBride is another excellent performer .
Unionism has never been good at getting its message across , from “ decent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ posting support for the British military while using a picture of foreign military soldiers .
It was often felt that the DUP never effectively communicated the delivery of the £1 billion from the confidence and supply agreement and what it was spent on or clear communication on their voting within the House of Commons and why they voted as they did .
Unionism would benefit from hiring someone to professionally communicate their messages and to better manage their online footprint , particularly in relation to social media which is generally miles behind rival @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Gone Whipping up hysteria about Sinn Fein and their links to the IRA at election time while happily sharing power with them the rest of the time , no longer cuts mustard with the Unionist electorate .
This tactic has proven to actually help increase the Sinn Fein vote .
Unionism needs to better concentrate on its own message , ensuring positive and clear policies are being put forward that the electorate can get interested in .
Throughout the 1990 ’ s and into the 2000 ’ s it was almost the norm @ @ @ @ @ @ @ letter into the Newsletter lambasting somebody in the gay community for a litany of reasons .
This always bemused me as I could never quite understand how the gay population seemed to play such a pivotal role in undermining the union .
Of course , political Unionist outrage against the gay community was not restricted to the letter ’ s pages of the Newsletter , we had Iris Robinson MP infamously referring to homosexuality as an “ abomination ” .
Ian Paisley junior found gay people “ repulsive ” and even during Covid-19 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to blame this pandemic on the gay community .
In a sign of progression within DUP ranks , openly gay member Alison Bennington who went on to comfortably get elected as a Councillor was attacked by a fellow party member Jim Wells who said that former party leader Ian Paisley would be “ aghast ” .
None of these actions ever resulted in any internal disciplinary action being taken , it ’ s difficult to imagine any other political party across western Europe who would have allowed this in modern times .
As @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Unionism of all shades blocked it , Mike Nesbitt whilst leader of the UUP advised that Unionism would be on the wrong side of history by blocking SSM , however in a later vote he abstained .
– Within their own ranks are members who are gay and further afield voters , so by blocking SSM they were rejecting these individuals .
– By insisting that Northern Ireland must have the same laws and rules as GB , political Unionism in NI conveniently ignored the fact that SSM was legal in GB so @ @ @ @ @ @ @ legally different from GB .
– Blocking SMM and discriminating against homosexuals has nothing at all to do with Unionism and all it served to do was negatively impact a vulnerable section of the community and potentially turn them off voting for the Union permanently .
When Arlene Foster took over the leadership of the DUP , many Unionists were expecting a slow shift in stance towards a more pragmatic approach towards the gay community .
This did not happen and in fact political Unionism had to have Westminster enforce legislation in Northern @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Northern Ireland has always had an extraordinarily complex and challenging relationship with the Conservatives which bemuses , amuses and confuses outsiders in equal measure .
There have been very public spats between the two including over the Anglo-Irish agreement where Enoch Powell a former Conservative and then UUP member , James Molyneaux and Ian Paisley all denounced Margaret Thatcher and the Conservative party over the deal and were ignored .
When the DUP formed the confidence and supply agreement with the Conservatives in 2017 the with the most obvious spat being over the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ party overrode Unionist concerns and effectively created a customs border between GB and NI .
It is bewildering that to this day despite warnings and indeed betrays Unionism and currently the DUP continue to kowtow to the Tories in an almost humiliating manner .
One key reason for the downfall of the UUP was due to their handling of the Belfast agreement , both during negotiations and while overseeing its implementation .
A weary Unionist electorate became tired and indeed embarrassed at what they perceived to be UUP incompetence .
The party was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ felt that Sinn Fein was comfortably outmanoeuvring them .
With the Executive continually collapsing the electorate had had enough and handed the reigns of Unionism over to the DUP .
The DUP has been able to boast ten years of “ stable ” power-sharing government in Northern Ireland ; however , this has been muddied with the Executive having collapsed for a whopping three years .
During the DUP ’ s time at the helm they have been instrumental in two significant elements of incompetence , one which led to the Executive ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sea border is considered as the greatest own goal by Unionism in recent times and has in effect damaged the integrity of the union between Northern Ireland and Great Britain .
Rather frustratingly the DUP have been very quiet on this but as the costs start to impact on the Northern Ireland market , the position and argument for the union is undermined .
It is difficult to imagine how Sinn Fein could have done more damage to the integrity of the Union than this and the DUP needs to own this error @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ( RHI ) straddles the border of incompetence and corruption with the DUP coming out of this severely damaged .
The very public falling out with their former party member Jonathan Bell and the boycotting of local media for reporting this story has severely damaging connotations to it .
It can not be ignored that Arlene Foster the now leader of Unionism rolled out this scheme without proper cost controls which has reportedly cost the public purse a whopping £500 million .
None of this bodes well for a party tasked with making @ @ @ @ @ @ @ electorate have chosen the DUP as their leaders , it can not be understated the anger and embarrassment they are feeling at continued incompetence .
Looking at parties such as Sinn Fein , the SDLP and Alliance who appear to be much more competent – Unionism is feeling very shortchanged by its political representatives .
It ’ s rather ironic that at the time of writing this Ian Paisley has inadvertently sent an email to over 300 recipients lambasting the Northern Ireland Assembly , something he retracted upon discovering his error – citing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ All political parties from time to time get involved with scandal and unfortunately that is par for the course in politics , however Unionism has for some almost became a byword for scandal with little to no consequences for the perpetrator unless the electorate dish out its verdict .
The last few weeks have typically been damaging for Unionism .
Jim Wells on Radio Ulster indicated that “ there was not stopping those who were Irish from moving to the Irish Republic ” .
Many Unionists ( myself included ) will consider themselves @ @ @ @ @ @ @ people who do live in Northern Ireland is that Unionism isn ’ t welcoming of you , can we be surprised if they vote for unification in the future ?
In Lisburn council , the DUP voted against an anti-misogyny motion for rather spurious reasons .
As a political movement that is vastly unrepresented by females , this move will further alienate females with Unionism ; goodness knows what female voters will think ?
DUP member Mervyn Storey questioned the funding of the long-awaited medical college at Magee and while the query was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ focus on Magee could only lead to negative connotations that Magee would effectively be eating into the policing budget .
Voting through a particularly controversial agricultural bill at Westminster much to the anger of the local farming community .
This bill lays open a path for unfettered food imports into the UK with little or no cognisance taken of the standards achieved when it comes to producing this food initially .
Expenses for Unionists with Westminster are frequently table-topping and there have been examples in the past of Unionists having to pay some @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the old school of thought of “ fill your boots ” and is certainly not something the taxpaying public appreciates .
Retrospective respect for the backstop , the DUP now concedes that this was a good option that should have been taken .
This has caused vast anger within Northern Ireland considering the opposition the DUP took to this and the subsequent deal that has been foisted on Northern Ireland .
Their belated acceptance of the backstop is much too late and has seriously undermined the DUP ’ s position and abilities .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ that with the erosion of political Unionism the link between Great Britain and Northern Ireland might actually be stronger .
Political Unionism has disillusioned the Northern Ireland public of all political shades and has resulted in many Unionists turning away from politics .
Unionism needs a Reformation of its own , one that turns it into a movement that is fit for the modern era , that is open and inclusive and really sells the benefit of the Union rather than opposing every single thing it is confronted with until such times that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ up .

I woke up early on the 9th of June 2017 to tune into the election coverage and see how the new UK government was shaping up. All of the Northern Ireland seats had been decided before I had retired the night before and it had been a reasonably good night for Unionism taking 11 of 18 seats, with the DUP capturing 10 of them. However, when I tuned into the election coverage, I was alarmed to see the DUP included within the election graphic on the bottom, which included the big parties and their seat tallies. Northern Ireland is never covered at a national level, so an anxious feeling came over me. This feeling was justified when I discovered the interest in the DUP was because they would hold the balance of power as the election results had created a hung parliament. It may seem strange that as a Unionist this concerned me, but there were two key reasons for this, namely (a) I didn’t feel the DUP were equipped for this responsibility and (b) Northern Irish Unionism does not always travel well and it is this that I wanted to discuss today.
There is no doubt that political Unionism drives and has driven the Unionist movement since Northern Ireland’s inception in 1921. Over the years this has increasingly became a problem as political Unionism is outdated, too often interwoven with scandal and incompetence. For what still seems like a majority in Northern Ireland who want to maintain the Union with Great Britain there is a greater reluctance than ever before to vote for a political Unionist party. Many are arriving at the conclusion that by voting for a Unionist party it could actually undermine the integrity of the Union.
I wanted to explore some of the key areas where Unionism has failed in recent times and where it is still failing.
Leadership
I will admit that I was genuinely excited when Arlene Foster took over the reins of Unionism from Peter Robinson. Peter Robinson’s tenure had become troubled while his appeal amongst the electorate was limited. However, someone like Foster could broaden Unionism’s appeal and modernise it in the process. Unfortunately, this never happened, Unionism has gone backwards during Arlene Foster’s tenure. Unionism has had to be forced into changes by Westminster with regards to same-sex marriage, Ms Foster was centrally involved in the RHI scandal and has failed to address internal scandal with her party. Unfortunately, her enduring legacy is likely to be the botched Brexit negotiations which have resulted in a sea border between Northern Ireland and Great Britain. The DUP has also declined in seats under Ms Fosters tenure and while I have much respect for her handling of the Covid-19 pandemic, many Unionists are looking for a change of leadership. Ms Foster, as the leader of Unionism, remains in a weakened position despite her handling of the Covid19 pandemic and as the sea border comes to fruition her position further declines. It is fair to say that Unionism has not been blessed with effective leadership over the years, the one standout exception was David Trimble whilst leader of the UUP, his contribution in moving Unionism into a position of power-sharing has too often been overlooked and underplayed.
Lack of Vision
Unionism is often very clear on what it does not want and is very vague and indeed elusive on what it does want. This was evident during the Brexit negotiations; the DUP were against the backstop but never put forward what they did want and, in the end, what was delivered was a constitutional crisis for Unionism. Unionism has also failed to move with the times, by creating a Northern Ireland at ease with itself where cultural aspects such as the Irish language could be protected, they failed to understand that such actions would in actuality strengthen the union. As I wrote in a previous article, by opposing the Irish language and other such proposals they were undermining Northern Ireland’s position within the UK as people felt that to get these rights, Ireland needed to be united. Unionism needs a clear vision on its plans for the future that more reflects the Northern Ireland of 2020 rather than the Free Presbyterian church of 1960.
Lack of Talent
One of the reasons Arlene Foster has remained as the leader for so long despite a troubled tenure is the obvious point that there is no natural successor. Simon Hamilton had been flagged as a potential replacement and was seen as a rising star before he left the political arena. Losing Nigel Dodds from frontline politics was also a significant body blow to Unionism as the Westminster team look rudderless at present and gaff prone. There are of course many talented people within both the UUP and DUP and Jim Allister of the TUV is a standout performer within the Assembly. However, taking a look at the talent within Sinn Fein, Alliance and the SDLP – political Unionism is certainly coming up short. Questions have to be asked as to why it is unable to attract talented members into its ranks and is the current lack of talent contributing to Unionisms overall decline?
Worst Foot Forward
Most people will be all too familiar with the same old faces from Unionism who appear on radio programmes or on TV panels and whom generally perform very poorly, damaging the Unionist brand in the process and turning many people off Unionism. It is particularly galling when someone representing Unionism is clearly ill-informed but is still putting forward and incoherent case. Unionist parties need to ensure they are putting forward members who are across their brief and who can perform well within the media. Many Unionists now turn off when a Unionist appears on TV or on the radio as the cringe factor and the roasting, they are likely to get is usually too much to endure and this has resulted in Unionism being lampooned. Unionists such as Alex Kane and indeed Doug Beattie are an exception to this rule – Sam McBride is another excellent performer.
Communication
Unionism has never been good at getting its message across, from “decent people vote UUP” to the DUP posting support for the British military while using a picture of foreign military soldiers. It was often felt that the DUP never effectively communicated the delivery of the £1 billion from the confidence and supply agreement and what it was spent on or clear communication on their voting within the House of Commons and why they voted as they did. Unionism would benefit from hiring someone to professionally communicate their messages and to better manage their online footprint, particularly in relation to social media which is generally miles behind rival parties.
The Sinn Fein Bogeyman Has Gone
Whipping up hysteria about Sinn Fein and their links to the IRA at election time while happily sharing power with them the rest of the time, no longer cuts mustard with the Unionist electorate. This tactic has proven to actually help increase the Sinn Fein vote. Unionism needs to better concentrate on its own message, ensuring positive and clear policies are being put forward that the electorate can get interested in.
Treatment of Homosexuals
Throughout the 1990’s and into the 2000’s it was almost the norm that a DUP politician would write a letter into the Newsletter lambasting somebody in the gay community for a litany of reasons. This always bemused me as I could never quite understand how the gay population seemed to play such a pivotal role in undermining the union. Of course, political Unionist outrage against the gay community was not restricted to the letter’s pages of the Newsletter, we had Iris Robinson MP infamously referring to homosexuality as an “abomination”. Ian Paisley junior found gay people “repulsive” and even during Covid-19 DUP Councillor, John Carson found time to blame this pandemic on the gay community. In a sign of progression within DUP ranks, openly gay member Alison Bennington who went on to comfortably get elected as a Councillor was attacked by a fellow party member Jim Wells who said that former party leader Ian Paisley would be “aghast”. None of these actions ever resulted in any internal disciplinary action being taken, it’s difficult to imagine any other political party across western Europe who would have allowed this in modern times.
As for rights on same-sex marriage, political Unionism of all shades blocked it, Mike Nesbitt whilst leader of the UUP advised that Unionism would be on the wrong side of history by blocking SSM, however in a later vote he abstained.
By continually blocking SSM, political Unionism faced a number of key issues:
– Within their own ranks are members who are gay and further afield voters, so by blocking SSM they were rejecting these individuals.
– By insisting that Northern Ireland must have the same laws and rules as GB, political Unionism in NI conveniently ignored the fact that SSM was legal in GB so in fact this was making Northern Ireland legally different from GB.
– Blocking SMM and discriminating against homosexuals has nothing at all to do with Unionism and all it served to do was negatively impact a vulnerable section of the community and potentially turn them off voting for the Union permanently.
When Arlene Foster took over the leadership of the DUP, many Unionists were expecting a slow shift in stance towards a more pragmatic approach towards the gay community. This did not happen and in fact political Unionism had to have Westminster enforce legislation in Northern Ireland legalising SSM.
Beware of the Tories
Political Unionism in Northern Ireland has always had an extraordinarily complex and challenging relationship with the Conservatives which bemuses, amuses and confuses outsiders in equal measure. There have been very public spats between the two including over the Anglo-Irish agreement where Enoch Powell a former Conservative and then UUP member, James Molyneaux and Ian Paisley all denounced Margaret Thatcher and the Conservative party over the deal and were ignored. When the DUP formed the confidence and supply agreement with the Conservatives in 2017 the with the most obvious spat being over the Brexit Withdrawal agreement via which the Conservative party overrode Unionist concerns and effectively created a customs border between GB and NI. It is bewildering that to this day despite warnings and indeed betrays Unionism and currently the DUP continue to kowtow to the Tories in an almost humiliating manner.
Incompetence
One key reason for the downfall of the UUP was due to their handling of the Belfast agreement, both during negotiations and while overseeing its implementation. A weary Unionist electorate became tired and indeed embarrassed at what they perceived to be UUP incompetence. The party was overseeing defections, internal spats and many felt that Sinn Fein was comfortably outmanoeuvring them. With the Executive continually collapsing the electorate had had enough and handed the reigns of Unionism over to the DUP.
The DUP has been able to boast ten years of “stable” power-sharing government in Northern Ireland; however, this has been muddied with the Executive having collapsed for a whopping three years. During the DUP’s time at the helm they have been instrumental in two significant elements of incompetence, one which led to the Executive’s collapse:
1. The Irish sea border is considered as the greatest own goal by Unionism in recent times and has in effect damaged the integrity of the union between Northern Ireland and Great Britain. Rather frustratingly the DUP have been very quiet on this but as the costs start to impact on the Northern Ireland market, the position and argument for the union is undermined. It is difficult to imagine how Sinn Fein could have done more damage to the integrity of the Union than this and the DUP needs to own this error.
2. The Renewable Heating Incentive (RHI) straddles the border of incompetence and corruption with the DUP coming out of this severely damaged. The very public falling out with their former party member Jonathan Bell and the boycotting of local media for reporting this story has severely damaging connotations to it. It cannot be ignored that Arlene Foster the now leader of Unionism rolled out this scheme without proper cost controls which has reportedly cost the public purse a whopping £500 million. None of this bodes well for a party tasked with making Northern Ireland work.
As the Unionist electorate have chosen the DUP as their leaders, it cannot be understated the anger and embarrassment they are feeling at continued incompetence. Looking at parties such as Sinn Fein, the SDLP and Alliance who appear to be much more competent – Unionism is feeling very shortchanged by its political representatives.
It’s rather ironic that at the time of writing this Ian Paisley has inadvertently sent an email to over 300 recipients lambasting the Northern Ireland Assembly, something he retracted upon discovering his error – citing it was “jocular” humour.
Scandal
All political parties from time to time get involved with scandal and unfortunately that is par for the course in politics, however Unionism has for some almost became a byword for scandal with little to no consequences for the perpetrator unless the electorate dish out its verdict.
Misogyny and Miscellaneous
The last few weeks have typically been damaging for Unionism. Jim Wells on Radio Ulster indicated that “there was not stopping those who were Irish from moving to the Irish Republic”. Many Unionists (myself included) will consider themselves Irish, but what this tells Irish people who do live in Northern Ireland is that Unionism isn’t welcoming of you, can we be surprised if they vote for unification in the future?
In Lisburn council, the DUP voted against an anti-misogyny motion for rather spurious reasons. As a political movement that is vastly unrepresented by females, this move will further alienate females with Unionism; goodness knows what female voters will think?
DUP member Mervyn Storey questioned the funding of the long-awaited medical college at Magee and while the query was more about police funding, putting the focus on Magee could only lead to negative connotations that Magee would effectively be eating into the policing budget.
Voting through a particularly controversial agricultural bill at Westminster much to the anger of the local farming community. This bill lays open a path for unfettered food imports into the UK with little or no cognisance taken of the standards achieved when it comes to producing this food initially.
Expenses for Unionists with Westminster are frequently table-topping and there have been examples in the past of Unionists having to pay some expenses back. This goes back to the old school of thought of “fill your boots” and is certainly not something the taxpaying public appreciates.
Retrospective respect for the backstop, the DUP now concedes that this was a good option that should have been taken. This has caused vast anger within Northern Ireland considering the opposition the DUP took to this and the subsequent deal that has been foisted on Northern Ireland. Their belated acceptance of the backstop is much too late and has seriously undermined the DUP’s position and abilities.
Conclusion
It’s difficult not to feel that with the erosion of political Unionism the link between Great Britain and Northern Ireland might actually be stronger. Political Unionism has disillusioned the Northern Ireland public of all political shades and has resulted in many Unionists turning away from politics. Unionism needs a Reformation of its own, one that turns it into a movement that is fit for the modern era, that is open and inclusive and really sells the benefit of the Union rather than opposing every single thing it is confronted with until such times that it has to in effect suck them up.


sluggerotoole--2020-06-01--While Trump plays with matches, the USA is a tinderbox…

Before the big pause , I was amazed at how Trump had managed to get through three years of his presidency without any major catastrophes .
He has had an entire stream of smaller scandals that would have taken down a less shameless leader but he managed to bumble through .
In a strange way , I admire Trump .
To be able to look people in the eye and tell such barefaced lies is a real skill .
To be caught telling over 5000 lies and still have absolutely no shame about it is impressive .
But as he @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as President , he is getting an entire omnishambles of disasters all at once .
Over 100,000 dead from Covid-19 so far , with total estimates put at 200,000 by the end of his Presidency .
An economic collapse with a 20 % unemployment rate , and just for good measure race riots all over the country .
African Americans have a right to be angry about the brutal murder of George Floyd by police officers .
For a lot of poor Americans , the police are not there to serve and protect @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Many police officers in the US are overly-aggressive , trigger-happy ex-military types – not exactly a good mix for community relations .
The militarisation of the American police is a terrifying development .
It must be stressed that most cops are decent and have been repulsed by the killing : some have even joined the protesters .
Many police forces in the American South were formed initially to recapture escaped slaves so there is a long history of tension between the police and the black community .
Minorities have a whole host @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and driving while black , and most dangerous of all running while black .
Trump , of course , could not resist adding fuel to the flames by tweeting ‘ when the looting starts , the shooting starts.
’ As the New York Times reports : One thing is certain : things will likely get worse before they get better .
America is in for a long hot summer .
Who knows how a cornered , failing Trump will lash out ?
The most obvious thing he might try is a war @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at home but you get the feeling that will not wash with a very divided , angry population .
Or he might double down on division and hope for a white backlash .
Whatever happens , one thing is for sure .
There could never be anyone more ill-suited than Trump to be in charge of such a time of crisis .
“ DC George Floyd Protest ( I ) ” by Nrbelex is licensed under CC BY-SA

Before the big pause, I was amazed at how Trump had managed to get through three years of his presidency without any major catastrophes. He has had an entire stream of smaller scandals that would have taken down a less shameless leader but he managed to bumble through.
In a strange way, I admire Trump. To be able to look people in the eye and tell such barefaced lies is a real skill. To be caught telling over 5000 lies and still have absolutely no shame about it is impressive.
But as he enters his (hopefully) final furlong as President, he is getting an entire omnishambles of disasters all at once. Over 100,000 dead from Covid-19 so far, with total estimates put at 200,000 by the end of his Presidency. An economic collapse with a 20% unemployment rate, and just for good measure race riots all over the country.
Several protesters knocked to the ground after a police car was driven into them in New York City in an attempt to move protesters out of the way. Earlier President Trump urged police to stand their ground. video via @pgarapon pic.twitter.com/nf9mZSkag0 — Zora Suleman (@ZoraSuleman) May 31, 2020
African Americans have a right to be angry about the brutal murder of George Floyd by police officers. For a lot of poor Americans, the police are not there to serve and protect: they are an Army of Occupation. Many police officers in the US are overly-aggressive, trigger-happy ex-military types – not exactly a good mix for community relations. The militarisation of the American police is a terrifying development. It must be stressed that most cops are decent and have been repulsed by the killing: some have even joined the protesters.
The Sheriff in Flint, Michigan. https://t.co/hTwtm0VB1G — Richard Chambers (@newschambers) May 31, 2020
Many police forces in the American South were formed initially to recapture escaped slaves so there is a long history of tension between the police and the black community. Minorities have a whole host of special crimes like walking while black, and driving while black, and most dangerous of all running while black.
Curfews have been ordered in cities across the US after the fifth night of unrest, sparked by the death of George Floyd in police custody Riot police have used tear gas and rubber bullets as demonstrators continued to take to the streets https://t.co/lPL70llPjQ pic.twitter.com/1IY7oljGjZ — BBC News (World) (@BBCWorld) May 31, 2020
Trump, of course, could not resist adding fuel to the flames by tweeting ‘when the looting starts, the shooting starts.’ As the New York Times reports:
In saying “when the looting starts, the shooting starts,” Mr. Trump echoed a phrase coined by a Miami police chief in the 1960s about crackdowns on black neighborhoods during times of unrest. Walter Headley, the Miami police chief in 1967, warned that young black men whom he called “hoodlums” had “taken advantage of the civil rights campaign,” and added, “We don’t mind being accused of police brutality.”
One thing is certain: things will likely get worse before they get better. America is in for a long hot summer. Who knows how a cornered, failing Trump will lash out? The most obvious thing he might try is a war with China to distract from his problems at home but you get the feeling that will not wash with a very divided, angry population. Or he might double down on division and hope for a white backlash.
Whatever happens, one thing is for sure. There could never be anyone more ill-suited than Trump to be in charge of such a time of crisis.
Smart, bunkers are a famously safe place for white supremacist dictators on their last legs https://t.co/I7wmCGdN1x — Zack Bornstein (@ZackBornstein) June 1, 2020
“DC George Floyd Protest (I)” by Nrbelex is licensed under CC BY-SA