sluggerotoole--2020-03-24--Major battle likely over the UK government’s latest Legacy plans.

For those of us who don ’ t provide an essential service there will be time and energy to spare for the matters I ’ ve already drawn attention to , such as the government ’ s latest Legacy proposals produced last week .
They abruptly overturned everything that has gone before , reached after years of tortuous gestation and months of consultation , concluding in July last year .
They were contained in a brief statement above the name of the new Secretary of State Brandon Lewis : Reconciliation and information recovery for victims who suffered during the Troubles @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
A new independent body will conduct swift , final examinations of all the unresolved deaths .
Only those cases where there is new compelling evidence and a realistic prospect of a prosecution will be investigated .
Once cases have been considered there will be a legal bar on any future investigation occurring .
This will end the cycle of reinvestigations for the families of victims and veterans alike .
A central resource for people from all backgrounds – and from throughout the UK and Ireland – will also be created to share @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The statement is framed in the style of Communist East Germany government communications favoured during the pre- Julian Smith era , consisting of patronising optimism laced with as little information as possible , followed by silence .
It doesn ’ t even repeat former NI Secretary Julian Smith ’ s undertaking to legislate within 100 days of the New Decade , New Approach agreement restoring the Assembly .
We are already half way to that notional deadline .
We can infer that the proposal to set up an independent Historical Investigations Unit @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with Chinese walls between them has been abandoned in favour of a review of the available evidence followed by closing the books unless the evidence is strong .
The Sun , trumpeting an Exclusive even in the throes of the coronavirus crisis last week had no doubt this is what is meant .
HUNDREDS of ageing Northern Ireland veterans are to be given legal promises that they will never be pursued through the courts again .
The landmark offer is being drawn up by ministers as the next chapter in their election vow @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , The Sun can reveal .
Opinion in Northern Ireland is reported by Brian Rowan in eammonmallie.com It divides on predictable lines in a piece he calls “ Glidepath to Amnesty.
” The Guardian reported Ministry of Defence measures , which exclude Northern Ireland service and may bring to an end a dispute between the MoD and the NIO The new regulations , revealed on Wednesday ( 18th March ) , introduce a “ presumption ” that once five years have elapsed from the date of an incident , it would be “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a serving or ex-soldier should be prosecuted for alleged offences on operations outside the UK .
Any prosecution would require the consent of the attorney general before it could proceed .
The latest Ministry of Defence initiative follows intense political debates over long-running investigations into former soldiers .
By dealing with those who have served outside the UK , and therefore excluding British soldiers who served in Northern Ireland from the proposed legislation , the five-year limit could be help defuse the MoD and Northern Ireland Office ’ s inter-departmental disputes over the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ time limits , ( Defence Secretary Ben ) Wallace said : “ For decades the men and women of our armed forces have been faced with the prospect of repeated investigations by inquest and police , despite the vast majority having acted in accordance with the rule of law and often at great personal risk .
“ That is why the government will today legislate to protect our veterans against repeated reinvestigations where there is no new and compelling evidence against them and to end vexatious claims against our armed forces.
” But @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Mercer followed this up with a tweet .
“ Equal treatment ” .
“ New and compelling evidence must be required ” Hundreds of Northern Ireland vets set to get legal guarantee they won ’ t face any more court witch-hunts .
Big stuff alongside our bill yesterday from Northern Ireland office .
As promised ” This suggests that conditions for prosecutions over foreign conflicts and Northern Ireland may not be so different after all .
FM and Dfm are of course split in February Arlene Foster expressed concerns around certain provisions in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of a Historical Investigations Unit ( HIU ) to re-examine unsolved murders .
Recently , as part of the deal which saw the return of Stormont , the British government pledged , within 100 days , to introduce legislation to implement a legacy deal .
It includes a HIU to look into Troubles killings .
In a letter to then SoS Julian Smith Foster wrote : “ I think we need to revisit the Stormont House Agreement because what is being proposed , and we made this clear in our consultation response at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the victims ’ groups here and it ’ s certainly not acceptable to us.
” But Michelle O ’ Neill said the “ agreement must be implemented in full , including the mechanisms for dealing with the legacy of the conflict , and can not be cherry picked by the British government or the DUP ” .
“ The British government has been resiling from the commitments it made at Stormont House and has delayed implementing the agreement for more than five years , further delaying truth and justice to the victims and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ LEADER COLUM EASTWOOD : “ This is about shutting down justice and shielding former soldiers… ” TANAISTE SIMON COVENEY : “ We would not support a proposal to introduce any special measure or treatment , regarding investigation of state or non-state actors in Northern Ireland.
” ALLIANCE MP and deputy leader STEPHEN FARRY “ Under these new proposals , it is very likely that only a small number of victims or their families will see justice for the crimes committed against them ...
This is another example of this governments populist approach , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ about vexatious claims .
No one should be above the law , and full investigations should take place and lead to prosecutions if the evidence is strong enough .
Questions need to be asked about whether these proposals comply with Article 2 of the European Convention on Human Rights .
The government must stand up for the rule of law and not try to subvert it… .
We need to work towards a comprehensive approach to dealing with the past that has been fully consulted on and is compliant with international human rights @ @ @ @ @ @ @ professor Kieran McEvoy , the head of a team who drew up a model Legacy bill said : “ Efforts on dealing with the past need to be benchmarked against three tests – whether it is consistent with : ( a ) binding human rights obligations under the ECHR ( particularly Article 2 rights regarding to an effective investigation ) ; ( b ) the Good Friday agreement , and ; ( c ) the Stormont House Agreement , which remains the one legacy related effort to reach maximum consensus in NI over @ @ @ @ @ @ @ current guise , this vague and contradictory statement [ from the UK Government ] fails all three tests..
It has all the hallmarks of the breezy arrogance which characterises some senior figures in this government – populist , contradictory , short on detail and characterised by a bullish ‘ let ’ s get legacy done ’ approach with little substantive regard for the rule of law , the views of other stake holders ( including the Irish government ) or delivering on the needs of those most affected by the conflict i.e .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ will welcome the rethink , being completely opposed to the terms of the HIU “ There are too many deficiencies , too much imbalance , too little acknowledgement of the role played by former and serving Officers , and an underlying dangerous desire to placate those who wrought havoc and destruction .
“ The bomber and gunman can not be viewed on a par with the RUC GC and the PSNI .
If this consultation is taken forward into draft legislation , all it will achieve is to provide an immoral equivalence between @ @ @ @ @ @ @ which we find morally repugnant and indefensible .
“ Our history can not be re-written to suit the murderers and bombers at the expense of brave men and women who delivered the peace .
“ The Government has enough to contend with at present without the toxic mix of the past .
It should scrap this effort to fix the past before it becomes an uncontrollable monster.
” If its critics worst fears are realised , it is hard to see how the government proposals can be taken forward .
The critics however @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the government explains what they mean by “ new compelling evidence.
” NI Attorney General John Larkin who basically supports drawing a line under the Troubles now favours some restrictions on interpreting the European Convention of Human Rights and a certification scheme drawing distinctions between “ split second “ decisions by security forces on opening fire and planned attacks by paramilitaries .
“ If you had a case involving a soldier who was 19 at the time and took a decision in the heat of the moment , .. the judge could take @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the public interest to prosecute .
Cases that were granted a certificate would proceed , those that were not would be dismissed .
The Irish Times have put down a marker .
While the Northern Secretary has not totally ruled out investigating some past killings , he said he wants to end the cycle of reinvestigations into the Troubles that has failed victims and British army veterans alike .
Official figures issued last year showed that the PSNI Legacy Investigation Branch had a caseload of 1,130 cases touching on the deaths of 1,421 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ considerable time that has elapsed since many of these incidents took place it is vital that an effective information recovery mechanism is put in place before this information is lost forever .
The move is widely seen by nationalists as a response to continuing pressure , some of it exerted by British prime minister Boris Johnson , to devise legislation that will prevent prosecutions of former British soldiers involved in Troubles-related killings .
The NIO were rumoured to be supporting the Stormont House ( Legacy ) draft Bill including the HIU .
They @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Ministry of Defence which openly opposed it in favour of an end to ” vexatious ” prosecutions .
But the NI Troubles were not lumped together with Iraq and Afghanistan .
A loophole remains over “ new compelling evidence.
” The NIO are unlikely to be over burdened with running the Covid 19 emergency .
They should use the time to explain themselves better over how to deal with the Troubles legacy .
It ’ s just possible that the government are starting to steer opinion round to accepting a general amnesty .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ soldiers .

For those of us who don’t provide an essential service there will be time and energy to spare for the matters I’ve already drawn attention to, such as the government’s latest Legacy proposals produced last week. They abruptly overturned everything that has gone before, reached after years of tortuous gestation and months of consultation, concluding in July last year. They were contained in a brief statement above the name of the new Secretary of State Brandon Lewis:
Reconciliation and information recovery for victims who suffered during the Troubles form a key part of the proposals. A new independent body will conduct swift, final examinations of all the unresolved deaths. Only those cases where there is new compelling evidence and a realistic prospect of a prosecution will be investigated. Once cases have been considered there will be a legal bar on any future investigation occurring. This will end the cycle of reinvestigations for the families of victims and veterans alike.
A central resource for people from all backgrounds – and from throughout the UK and Ireland – will also be created to share experiences and narratives related to the Troubles.
The statement is framed in the style of Communist East Germany government communications favoured during the pre- Julian Smith era, consisting of patronising optimism laced with as little information as possible, followed by silence. It doesn’t even repeat former NI Secretary Julian Smith’s undertaking to legislate within 100 days of the New Decade, New Approach agreement restoring the Assembly. We are already half way to that notional deadline.
We can infer that the proposal to set up an independent Historical Investigations Unit and a separate Commission on Information Retrieval with Chinese walls between them has been abandoned in favour of a review of the available evidence followed by closing the books unless the evidence is strong.
The Sun, trumpeting an Exclusive even in the throes of the coronavirus crisis last week had no doubt this is what is meant.
HUNDREDS of ageing Northern Ireland veterans are to be given legal promises that they will never be pursued through the courts again.
The landmark offer is being drawn up by ministers as the next chapter in their election vow to end “witch-hunt” historical investigations, The Sun can reveal.
Opinion in Northern Ireland is reported by Brian Rowan in eammonmallie.com It divides on predictable lines in a piece he calls “ Glidepath to Amnesty.”
The Guardian reported Ministry of Defence measures, which exclude Northern Ireland service and may bring to an end a dispute between the MoD and the NIO
The new regulations, revealed on Wednesday ( 18th March), introduce a “presumption” that once five years have elapsed from the date of an incident, it would be “exceptional” for prosecutors to decide that a serving or ex-soldier should be prosecuted for alleged offences on operations outside the UK. Any prosecution would require the consent of the attorney general before it could proceed.
The latest Ministry of Defence initiative follows intense political debates over long-running investigations into former soldiers. By dealing with those who have served outside the UK, and therefore excluding British soldiers who served in Northern Ireland from the proposed legislation, the five-year limit could be help defuse the MoD and Northern Ireland Office’s inter-departmental disputes over the legacy of the Troubles.
Introducing the time limits, ( Defence Secretary Ben)Wallace said: “For decades the men and women of our armed forces have been faced with the prospect of repeated investigations by inquest and police, despite the vast majority having acted in accordance with the rule of law and often at great personal risk.
“That is why the government will today legislate to protect our veterans against repeated reinvestigations where there is no new and compelling evidence against them and to end vexatious claims against our armed forces.”
But Armed Forces minister and Afghanistan veteran Johnnie Mercer followed this up with a tweet.
Mar 19
“Equal treatment”. “New and compelling evidence must be required” Hundreds of Northern Ireland vets set to get legal guarantee they won’t face any more court witch-hunts. Big stuff alongside our bill yesterday from Northern Ireland office. As promised”
This suggests that conditions for prosecutions over foreign conflicts and Northern Ireland may not be so different after all.
FM and Dfm are of course split
in February Arlene Foster expressed concerns around certain provisions in the 2014 agreement, including the establishment of a Historical Investigations Unit (HIU) to re-examine unsolved murders.
Recently, as part of the deal which saw the return of Stormont, the British government pledged, within 100 days, to introduce legislation to implement a legacy deal.
It includes a HIU to look into Troubles killings.
In a letter to then SoS Julian Smith Foster wrote : “I think we need to revisit the Stormont House Agreement because what is being proposed, and we made this clear in our consultation response at the time, is not acceptable to the victims’ groups here and it’s certainly not acceptable to us.”
But Michelle O’Neill said the “agreement must be implemented in full, including the mechanisms for dealing with the legacy of the conflict, and cannot be cherry picked by the British government or the DUP”.
“The British government has been resiling from the commitments it made at Stormont House and has delayed implementing the agreement for more than five years, further delaying truth and justice to the victims and their families.. That is unacceptable.”
Other reaction logged by Rowan
AN ACT OF SPECTACULAR BAD FAITH
SDLP LEADER COLUM EASTWOOD: “This is about shutting down justice and shielding former soldiers…”
TANAISTE SIMON COVENEY: “We would not support a proposal to introduce any special measure or treatment, regarding investigation of state or non-state actors in Northern Ireland.”
ALLIANCE MP and deputy leader STEPHEN FARRY “Under these new proposals, it is very likely that only a small number of victims or their families will see justice for the crimes committed against them... This is another example of this governments populist approach, this time dictated by a false narrative about vexatious claims. No one should be above the law, and full investigations should take place and lead to prosecutions if the evidence is strong enough. Questions need to be asked about whether these proposals comply with Article 2 of the European Convention on Human Rights. The government must stand up for the rule of law and not try to subvert it…. We need to work towards a comprehensive approach to dealing with the past that has been fully consulted on and is compliant with international human rights standards.”
Queen’s University law professor Kieran McEvoy, the head of a team who drew up a model Legacy bill said:
“Efforts on dealing with the past need to be benchmarked against three tests – whether it is consistent with:(a) binding human rights obligations under the ECHR (particularly Article 2 rights regarding to an effective investigation);(b) the Good Friday agreement, and;(c) the Stormont House Agreement, which remains the one legacy related effort to reach maximum consensus in NI over the last 20 years.
In its current guise, this vague and contradictory statement [from the UK Government] fails all three tests.. It has all the hallmarks of the breezy arrogance which characterises some senior figures in this government – populist, contradictory, short on detail and characterised by a bullish ‘let’s get legacy done’ approach with little substantive regard for the rule of law, the views of other stake holders (including the Irish government) or delivering on the needs of those most affected by the conflict i.e. victims and survivors.”
The police federation will welcome the rethink, being completely opposed to the terms of the HIU
“There are too many deficiencies, too much imbalance, too little acknowledgement of the role played by former and serving Officers, and an underlying dangerous desire to placate those who wrought havoc and destruction. “The bomber and gunman cannot be viewed on a par with the RUC GC and the PSNI. If this consultation is taken forward into draft legislation, all it will achieve is to provide an immoral equivalence between the terrorist and the Police Officer, which we find morally repugnant and indefensible. “Our history cannot be re-written to suit the murderers and bombers at the expense of brave men and women who delivered the peace. “The Government has enough to contend with at present without the toxic mix of the past. It should scrap this effort to fix the past before it becomes an uncontrollable monster.”
If its critics worst fears are realised, it is hard to see how the government proposals can be taken forward. The critics however are holding some of their fire until the government explains what they mean by “ new compelling evidence.” NI Attorney General John Larkin who basically supports drawing a line under the Troubles now favours some restrictions on interpreting the European Convention of Human Rights and a certification scheme drawing distinctions between “ split second “decisions by security forces on opening fire and planned attacks by paramilitaries.
“If you had a case involving a soldier who was 19 at the time and took a decision in the heat of the moment,.. the judge could take a view on whether it was in the public interest to prosecute. Cases that were granted a certificate would proceed, those that were not would be dismissed.
The Irish Times have put down a marker.
While the Northern Secretary has not totally ruled out investigating some past killings, he said he wants to end the cycle of reinvestigations into the Troubles that has failed victims and British army veterans alike.
Official figures issued last year showed that the PSNI Legacy Investigation Branch had a caseload of 1,130 cases touching on the deaths of 1,421 people. Lewis maintains that given the considerable time that has elapsed since many of these incidents took place it is vital that an effective information recovery mechanism is put in place before this information is lost forever.
The move is widely seen by nationalists as a response to continuing pressure, some of it exerted by British prime minister Boris Johnson, to devise legislation that will prevent prosecutions of former British soldiers involved in Troubles-related killings.
The NIO were rumoured to be supporting the Stormont House ( Legacy) draft Bill including the HIU. They may have lost the battle with the Ministry of Defence which openly opposed it in favour of an end to ” vexatious” prosecutions. But the NI Troubles were not lumped together with Iraq and Afghanistan. A loophole remains over “new compelling evidence.”
The NIO are unlikely to be over burdened with running the Covid 19 emergency. They should use the time to explain themselves better over how to deal with the Troubles legacy. It’s just possible that the government are starting to steer opinion round to accepting a general amnesty. Or perhaps they only care about former soldiers.


sluggerotoole--2020-03-25--Could Covid 19 have been knocking around for months already?

My mum was badly ill back at the start of February .
The illness had all the symptoms of Covid 19 , the fever , the bad chest etc .
Thankfully she pulled through , but it has taken her weeks to get over it .
Many of us will have similar stories of unusual seasonal illness that we are now wondering , could it have been Covid 19 ?
When your body fights of a virus it produces antibodies .
They are working on a test to detect these antibodies , in simple terms this test will let you @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The test will not be available to the rest of us for quite a while , but the best-case scenario would be a simple at-home test to let you know if you have already had Covid 19 .
A new report from researchers at Oxford University thinks that 50 % of the UK population could have already been exposed to Covid 19 : The new model from Oxford University suggests the virus was circulating in the UK by mid-January , around two weeks before the first reported case and a month before the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ suggested that less than one thousand of those with Covid-19 became ill enough to need treatment in hospital , with the vast majority developing mild symptoms or none at all .
This means it could have had enough time to have spread widely , with many people in the country acquiring immunity .
Can I stress that this is one of the many competing theories around Covid 19 .
We will not know for certain until we have the antibody test .
Reports from Italian doctors say they were seeing symptoms as early @ @ @ @ @ @ @ now hearing information about it from general practitioners .
“ They remember having seen very strange pneumonia , very severe , particularly in old people in December and even November , ” he says .
“ This means that the virus was circulating , at least in [ the northern region of ] Lombardy and before we were aware of this outbreak occurring in China.
” This has been seized on by the Chinese government who are trying to deflect blame away from them .
Whatever the truth is we do need to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ key aim of this strategy is to stop hospitals being overwhelmed with cases and not being able to cope .
So we have to stick with the rules for now and keep safe .
Photo by padrinan is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA

My mum was badly ill back at the start of February. The illness had all the symptoms of Covid 19, the fever, the bad chest etc. Thankfully she pulled through, but it has taken her weeks to get over it. Many of us will have similar stories of unusual seasonal illness that we are now wondering, could it have been Covid 19?
When your body fights of a virus it produces antibodies. They are working on a test to detect these antibodies, in simple terms this test will let you if you have already had it. The test will not be available to the rest of us for quite a while, but the best-case scenario would be a simple at-home test to let you know if you have already had Covid 19.
A new report from researchers at Oxford University thinks that 50% of the UK population could have already been exposed to Covid 19:
The new model from Oxford University suggests the virus was circulating in the UK by mid-January, around two weeks before the first reported case and a month before the first reported death. And the research suggested that less than one thousand of those with Covid-19 became ill enough to need treatment in hospital, with the vast majority developing mild symptoms or none at all. This means it could have had enough time to have spread widely, with many people in the country acquiring immunity.
Can I stress that this is one of the many competing theories around Covid 19. We will not know for certain until we have the antibody test.
Reports from Italian doctors say they were seeing symptoms as early as November:
Remuzzi says he is now hearing information about it from general practitioners. “They remember having seen very strange pneumonia, very severe, particularly in old people in December and even November,” he says. “This means that the virus was circulating, at least in [the northern region of] Lombardy and before we were aware of this outbreak occurring in China.”
This has been seized on by the Chinese government who are trying to deflect blame away from them.
Whatever the truth is we do need to stick to the self-isolation. Remember the key aim of this strategy is to stop hospitals being overwhelmed with cases and not being able to cope. So we have to stick with the rules for now and keep safe.
Photo by padrinan is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA


sluggerotoole--2020-03-25--Watch #ImagineBelfast Day One – virtual festival stream from 1pm until 9pm

You can catch day one of the now virtual Imagine !
Belfast Festival of Ideas and Politics between 1pm and @ @ @ @ @ schedule will feature the latest ( pre-recorded ) episode of Slugger TV at 3pm , @ @ @ @ @ evening you ’ ll find a mix of recent recordings and archive material from last @ @ @ @ @ .
I ’ ll follow-up with posts on Thursday and Friday for the remaining streamed @ @

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sluggerotoole--2020-03-25--Why Northern Ireland should add off licenses to #Covid19 exceptions

As many of you will know I ’ m not one for digging at any government for their handling of the # Covid19 pandemic .
No one in the west is practiced at this in the way the eastern countries are , so negative cross globe comparisons tend to miss this vital context .
I do however think that closing of Northern Irish off-licenses is a misstep and one I hope is reversible without anyone feeling they have to back down .
Making mistakes is part of this process .
Why is a mistake ?
Well , two reasons .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ is a diffuse challenge that has taken advantage of unprotected globalised trade and travel lines which has mainstreamed the virus into the smallest of our communities .
There is some ( albeit anecdotal ) evidence that in Italy , which has retained a far larger small retailer sector than either the UK or Ireland , is playing a valuable role in keeping communities , fed and watered whilst larger outlets sell out quickly .
We have ( again purely anecdotally ) evidence that in Northern Ireland country stores tend not sell out as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as quickly as the bigger stores ( where 24 cans of baked beans might not be challenged ) .
My friend David Steven in Pisa put this great Tweet thread out a couple of days ago covers the resilience argument better than I can : Closing a small chain of shops which uniquely sell alcohol will push more people to go to the big supermarket chains more regularly and put even more pressure on them .
But there is another more distressing public health problem .
Alcoholics .
One of the first things @ @ @ @ @ @ @ meetings , and counseling is being ended suddenly .
Sudden withdrawal can be dangerous too .
Adam Taylor in the Independent : Bear in mind some of these big superstores which will continue selling booze in NI can be miles away from the locality in which people live this is a highly likely scenario .
And the Office of the Executive simply don ’ t have to do it .
The UK government hasn ’ t .
Off licences are listed in their exceptions to the order to close , presumably with the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ m not standing on a soapbox to say this .
I know the Executive has its hands full and doesn ’ t need the grandstanding .
I ’ ve said from the start mistakes are inevitable .
They just need fixing when they ’ re discovered .
As quickly as possible .
Personally I like a good drink more than most , but firstly because it was Lent and secondly because of this damned virus I want to give myself the best chance I can , booze has almost dropped off my @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lot of us ) .
This isn ’ t about us .
If you are suffering right now , or you ’ re a politician or policymaker working under the pressure of Covid19 , please have a look at the Alcohol Change website .
Photo by Anna Shvets is licensed under CC0

As many of you will know I’m not one for digging at any government for their handling of the #Covid19 pandemic. No one in the west is practiced at this in the way the eastern countries are, so negative cross globe comparisons tend to miss this vital context.
I do however think that closing of Northern Irish off-licenses is a misstep and one I hope is reversible without anyone feeling they have to back down. Making mistakes is part of this process.
Why is it a mistake? Well, two reasons. On the big scale, this virus is a diffuse challenge that has taken advantage of unprotected globalised trade and travel lines which has mainstreamed the virus into the smallest of our communities.
There is some (albeit anecdotal) evidence that in Italy, which has retained a far larger small retailer sector than either the UK or Ireland, is playing a valuable role in keeping communities, fed and watered whilst larger outlets sell out quickly.
We have (again purely anecdotally) evidence that in Northern Ireland country stores tend not sell out as quickly and customers adopt social distancing techniques as quickly as the bigger stores (where 24 cans of baked beans might not be challenged).
My friend David Steven in Pisa put this great Tweet thread out a couple of days ago covers the resilience argument better than I can:
Today’s #coronadiary, 24/03/20 A tribute to the Small Shops of #Pisa – the bedrock of local #resilience and heroes for keeping us fed through this dreadful crisis. [1/x] — David Steven (@davidsteven) March 24, 2020
Closing a small chain of shops which uniquely sell alcohol will push more people to go to the big supermarket chains more regularly and put even more pressure on them. But there is another more distressing public health problem.
Alcoholics. One of the first things that will have closed down is AA meetings, and counseling is being ended suddenly. Sudden withdrawal can be dangerous too. Adam Taylor in the Independent:
…if it’s not done properly, withdrawal from alcohol can have terrible health consequences of its own, including death.
Bear in mind some of these big superstores which will continue selling booze in NI can be miles away from the locality in which people live this is a highly likely scenario. And the Office of the Executive simply don’t have to do it.
The UK government hasn’t. Off licences are listed in their exceptions to the order to close, presumably with the two considerations above in mind.
London has now added offies to its exceptions list https://t.co/x1Q7Lk7yLF — Tom (@tggleeson) March 25, 2020
I’m not standing on a soapbox to say this. I know the Executive has its hands full and doesn’t need the grandstanding. I’ve said from the start mistakes are inevitable. They just need fixing when they’re discovered. As quickly as possible.
Personally I like a drink more than most but, firstly because it was Lent and secondly because of this damned virus I really want to give myself the best chance I can if I catch it, booze has almost dropped off my radar (which it will for a lot of us).
But this isn’t about us.
If you are suffering right now, or you’re a politician or policymaker working under the pressure of Covid19, please have a look at the Alcohol Change website.
Photo by Anna Shvets is licensed under CC0


sluggerotoole--2020-03-25--New #Covid-19 symptoms app may help us map where the hotspots are

As Ian Parsley notes on his own blog , testing is going to be the key to getting a handle on this problem .
Our ability to predict how this will go is limited by the fact we have vey little reliable data on who has had the virus and who hasn ’ t .
Earlier in the week , Micheal Martin made the valuable point that we need to be mapping the outbreaks as best we can in order to enable local leaders to take hold of the efforts to close it down where it is likely to be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ some random testing the better .
That would give us a very clear idea of just how many people have the virus at any one time – and would help guide policy not just on when to raise lockdown , but also the value and efficacy of self-isolation after restrictions are lifted .
There may be another layer of data short of actual testing .
Researchers at King ’ s College London and Guy ’ s and St Thomas ’ hospitals have joined with the health data science company ZOE to develop symptoms @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The concept is it is an early warning radar device because we are asking about non-classical symptoms as well , because many people are reporting non-persistent cough , or feeling unwell or a strange feeling of a lack of taste , or chest tightness that aren ’ t in the classical list but if we see it across the country in clusters we know they are probably real [ symptoms of Covid-19 ] , ” said Tim Spector , a professor of genetic epidemiology at King ’ s College London , who is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ clinicians in the hospital , especially in the elderly you get very different symptoms to the young so this idea there is only two types of symptoms – fever and long-term cough – is wrong .
It can occur in many different ways , ” he added .
You can download it here .
All you do is tap in your details and tell them how you are feel now and then update each day .
In and out quickly .
If and when you do get symptoms they ’ ll take you @ @ @ @ @ @ @ your symptoms .
It could be hugely important if the uptake is wide enough .
I ’ ve done it , and I ’ d encourage you to do and spread the word to those in your friendship and family networks and in your area .
Every little bit of data will help .
Photo by stokpic is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA

As Ian Parsley notes on his own blog, testing is going to be the key to getting a handle on this problem. Our ability to predict how this will go is limited by the fact we have vey little reliable data on who has had the virus and who hasn’t.
Earlier in the week, Micheal Martin made the valuable point that we need to be mapping the outbreaks as best we can in order to enable local leaders to take hold of the efforts to close it down where it is likely to be most effective.
Ian suggests…
…the sooner we get some random testing the better. That would give us a very clear idea of just how many people have the virus at any one time – and would help guide policy not just on when to raise lockdown, but also the value and efficacy of self-isolation after restrictions are lifted.
There may be another layer of data short of actual testing. Researchers at King’s College London and Guy’s and St Thomas’ hospitals have joined with the health data science company ZOE to develop symptoms reporting app. The Guardian reports:
The concept is it is an early warning radar device because we are asking about non-classical symptoms as well, because many people are reporting non-persistent cough, or feeling unwell or a strange feeling of a lack of taste, or chest tightness that aren’t in the classical list but if we see it across the country in clusters we know they are probably real [symptoms of Covid-19],” said Tim Spector, a professor of genetic epidemiology at King’s College London, who is leading the work. “Speaking to clinicians in the hospital, especially in the elderly you get very different symptoms to the young so this idea there is only two types of symptoms – fever and long-term cough – is wrong. It can occur in many different ways,” he added.
You can download it here. All you do is tap in your details and tell them how you are feel now and then update each day. In and out quickly. If and when you do get symptoms they’ll take you through a series of questions to describe your symptoms.
It could be hugely important if the uptake is wide enough. I’ve done it, and I’d encourage you to do and spread the word to those in your friendship and family networks and in your area. Every little bit of data will help.
Photo by stokpic is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA


sluggerotoole--2020-03-25--Yeeeoooowww! UK coronavirus mass home testing to be made available ‘within days’…

Some light at the end of the tunnel , and for a change , it is not a train .
From The Guardian : Thousands of 15-minute home tests for coronavirus will be delivered by Amazon to people self-isolating with symptoms or will go on sale on the high street within days , according to Public Health England ( PHE ) , in a move that could restore many people ’ s lives to a semblance of pre-lockdown normality .
Prof Sharon Peacock , the director of the national infection service at PHE , told MPs on the science and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ UK would be possible by next week .
The UK government has bought 3.5m tests , which the health secretary , Matt Hancock , mentioned on Tuesday with no suggestion that they would be available to the public so quickly , and is ordering millions more .
Amazon has agreed to carry out distribution and the tests will also go on sale in chemist shops .
NHS workers or anyone else will be able to know if they have had the virus and are therefore immune , which means they could resume their @ @ @ @ @ @ @ work from home or keep their distance from other people .
It is widely thought that having Covid-19 makes people immune to the disease or that if they get it a second time , they do not transmit it .

Some light at the end of the tunnel, and for a change, it is not a train. From The Guardian:
Thousands of 15-minute home tests for coronavirus will be delivered by Amazon to people self-isolating with symptoms or will go on sale on the high street within days, according to Public Health England (PHE), in a move that could restore many people’s lives to a semblance of pre-lockdown normality.
Prof Sharon Peacock, the director of the national infection service at PHE, told MPs on the science and technology committee that mass testing in the UK would be possible by next week.
The UK government has bought 3.5m tests, which the health secretary, Matt Hancock, mentioned on Tuesday with no suggestion that they would be available to the public so quickly, and is ordering millions more.
Amazon has agreed to carry out distribution and the tests will also go on sale in chemist shops.
NHS workers or anyone else will be able to know if they have had the virus and are therefore immune, which means they could resume their normal lives, no longer having to work from home or keep their distance from other people. It is widely thought that having Covid-19 makes people immune to the disease or that if they get it a second time, they do not transmit it.


sluggerotoole--2020-03-25--Do we really want pro union voices?

Do we really want pro union voices?

As a 24-year old I had a boss who was a great mentor to me .
I was a young East Belfast Protestant and he was a 40-year old veteran of the Civil Rights movement and a staunch republican from Andersonstown .
We agreed about very little politically and frequently had heated arguments on the issues of the day ( it was 1986/87 ) and on the constitutional issue .
Yet I revered him as both advisor and friend and he treated me as a close protégé and confidante .
One of our debates has occurred to me a lot @ @ @ @ @ @ @ week in the aftermath of the Stormont fall out over Coronavirus policy .
Once he asked me what was my biggest objection to a United Ireland , apart from national identity .
A great question that focused the mind pretty well .
The answer is one that has taken on a greater resonance of late than for a long time .
Basically , my position was that I feared a lengthy period of extreme triumphalism and score-settling in the aftermath of unity and that was something I – not alive when Stormont was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the ascendancy and whose family had never been near the levers of power – was never prepared to accept .
In the intervening years this became less of an issue as memories of the troubles subsided and the Stormont institutions bedded in .
Also , as both sides of the border appeared to assume a more secular and socially liberal demeanour and ideas of the Republic as an avaricious predator became redundant in all but the most throwback of unionists .
Indeed , I commented to a republican colleague that I felt @ @ @ @ @ @ @ likes of Kenny and Varadkar than I did with most of my own leaders .
Certainly , in terms of the sort of society they and I envisaged .
During that period , I wouldn ’ t say that unionists ceased to be pro-union , but the stridency disappeared from much of our political exchanges and the two parties of the extremes appeared to be embracing that new mood as they strengthened their respective leadership positions .
We knew they were still at heart the same people as before , but both parties @ @ @ @ @ @ @ blessed at least with a pragmatism absent from their forebears .
As a natural optimist , I was content .
It ’ s a cliché to say Brexit changed everything but some clichés are justified .
Since the 2017 Stormont election and the loss of the unionist assembly majority ( due to the reduction in available seat numbers ) , the tone has changed dramatically , and not just between the parties .
For the first time , there is a sense among some that a United Ireland may be finally on the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that ’ s the case but that perception has injected a new level of poison into our political discourse , and it ’ s a scary turn .
In short , we are starting to see – very prematurely – real signs of the triumphalism and score-settling I mentioned earlier .
We are now in a world where there is a very real sense that the possibility of the 50 % plus one means that the concerns of the broad PUL community no longer need to be heard , let alone considered .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ elements of the mainstream media , in fact , they are widely ridiculed and dismissed as the old regime hankering for days of domination .
It ’ s a long time since I ’ ve read so many suggestions that unionists should leave Ireland if they don ’ t like it ( though Arlene Foster ’ s comments didn ’ t help ) .
Also , I ’ ve read far too many comments boldly stating that there is no place for certain named unionist figures in a United Ireland .
These comments @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ likes ” or comments of support .
That has coincided with the rise of the concept of Civic Nationalism full of confident voices of successful , professional individuals .
Self-confidence is always to be encouraged but , in this case , it is coming to represent a new establishment , just as exclusive and one dimensional as its predecessor .
An establishment that sees itself as inclusive and progressive but doesn ’ t see the contradiction in casually dismissing a contrary voice as a “ flegger ” .
The demonisation or trivialisation @ @ @ @ @ @ @ helped ensure that there is no equivalent brand of Civic Unionism .
Literally no “ commentators ” have emerged from unionist communities in the past decade ( people who lost their seats because unionism rejected them really don ’ t count ) .
That is incredibly unhealthy for society both now and in the future .
The venomous reaction to Ben Lowry as commentator or columnist is a perfect example .
I often disagree with Ben ’ s content and tone but nothing he says can justify the vilification he consistently receives .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ Alex Kane veer into the realms of saying something unambiguously unionist he is rounded on as some sort of supremacist .
Sam McBride – who I have no doubt has cost his paper a significant number of readers through his diligent and forensic dismantling of the DUP machine since 2016 – is revered for his RHI work , but dismissed as playing to a hardcore , fundamentalist base when he comments on any subject other than the flaws of the DUP .
Even Naomi Long – hardly the poster girl in orange halls @ @ @ @ @ @ @ – has been contemptuously portrayed as a unionist ( like that ’ s an innately bad thing ) since her intervention in the Coronavirus debate this week .
Even if she was a unionist , that wouldn ’ t in any way invalidate her criticism of Sinn Fein this or any other week .
But clearly she overstepped an unwritten mark .
This all reeks of a deliberate and organised dehumanisation of even the most liberal and moderate pro-union voices .
I ’ m not talking deliberately provocative figures like Jim Wells or @ @ @ @ @ @ @ spoken in favour of the campaigns for social liberalisation we ’ ve seen in recent years .
Voices representing people who are comfortable with an evolved , inclusive society and want nothing more than to play their part .
People who have had their certainties challenged by Brexit and DUP resistance to social change .
Who feel uncomfortable with the way the UK as a whole is evolving .
People who in many cases – especially younger ones – do not feel any innate hostility to the possibility of Irish Unity in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are ready for very real bridge-building with nationalism across the island .
If nationalism wants to make these people and their parents feel wanted or valued in the Ireland they envisage , they need to start demonstrating it .
With sincerity .
Photo by Free-Photos is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA Photo by Free-Photos is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA

As a 24-year old I had a boss who was a great mentor to me. I was a young East Belfast Protestant and he was a 40-year old veteran of the Civil Rights movement and a staunch republican from Andersonstown. We agreed about very little politically and frequently had heated arguments on the issues of the day (it was 1986/87) and on the constitutional issue. Yet I revered him as both advisor and friend and he treated me as a close protégé and confidante.
One of our debates has occurred to me a lot in recent months, and particularly this week in the aftermath of the Stormont fall out over Coronavirus policy. Once he asked me what was my biggest objection to a United Ireland, apart from national identity. A great question that focused the mind pretty well. The answer is one that has taken on a greater resonance of late than for a long time.
Basically, my position was that I feared a lengthy period of extreme triumphalism and score-settling in the aftermath of unity and that was something I – not alive when Stormont was in its pomp, hardly a product of the ascendancy and whose family had never been near the levers of power – was never prepared to accept.
In the intervening years this became less of an issue as memories of the troubles subsided and the Stormont institutions bedded in. Also, as both sides of the border appeared to assume a more secular and socially liberal demeanour and ideas of the Republic as an avaricious predator became redundant in all but the most throwback of unionists. Indeed, I commented to a republican colleague that I felt I had more in common with the likes of Kenny and Varadkar than I did with most of my own leaders. Certainly, in terms of the sort of society they and I envisaged.
During that period, I wouldn’t say that unionists ceased to be pro-union, but the stridency disappeared from much of our political exchanges and the two parties of the extremes appeared to be embracing that new mood as they strengthened their respective leadership positions. We knew they were still at heart the same people as before, but both parties seemed to be fostering a new generation blessed at least with a pragmatism absent from their forebears. As a natural optimist, I was content.
It’s a cliché to say Brexit changed everything but some clichés are justified. Since the 2017 Stormont election and the loss of the unionist assembly majority (due to the reduction in available seat numbers), the tone has changed dramatically, and not just between the parties. For the first time, there is a sense among some that a United Ireland may be finally on the horizon. I’m not sure that’s the case but that perception has injected a new level of poison into our political discourse, and it’s a scary turn. In short, we are starting to see – very prematurely – real signs of the triumphalism and score-settling I mentioned earlier.
We are now in a world where there is a very real sense that the possibility of the 50% plus one means that the concerns of the broad PUL community no longer need to be heard, let alone considered. Primarily on social media but also some elements of the mainstream media, in fact, they are widely ridiculed and dismissed as the old regime hankering for days of domination. It’s a long time since I’ve read so many suggestions that unionists should leave Ireland if they don’t like it (though Arlene Foster’s comments didn’t help).
Also, I’ve read far too many comments boldly stating that there is no place for certain named unionist figures in a United Ireland. These comments often command tens or even hundreds of “likes” or comments of support. That has coincided with the rise of the concept of Civic Nationalism full of confident voices of successful, professional individuals.
Self-confidence is always to be encouraged but, in this case, it is coming to represent a new establishment, just as exclusive and one dimensional as its predecessor. An establishment that sees itself as inclusive and progressive but doesn’t see the contradiction in casually dismissing a contrary voice as a “flegger”.
The demonisation or trivialisation of pro-union people and their communities has helped ensure that there is no equivalent brand of Civic Unionism. Literally no “commentators” have emerged from unionist communities in the past decade (people who lost their seats because unionism rejected them really don’t count). That is incredibly unhealthy for society both now and in the future.
The venomous reaction to Ben Lowry as commentator or columnist is a perfect example. I often disagree with Ben’s content and tone but nothing he says can justify the vilification he consistently receives. Even when solidly non-contentious pro-union voices like Alex Kane veer into the realms of saying something unambiguously unionist he is rounded on as some sort of supremacist.
Sam McBride – who I have no doubt has cost his paper a significant number of readers through his diligent and forensic dismantling of the DUP machine since 2016 – is revered for his RHI work, but dismissed as playing to a hardcore, fundamentalist base when he comments on any subject other than the flaws of the DUP.
Even Naomi Long – hardly the poster girl in orange halls the length and breadth of the province – has been contemptuously portrayed as a unionist (like that’s an innately bad thing) since her intervention in the Coronavirus debate this week. Even if she was a unionist, that wouldn’t in any way invalidate her criticism of Sinn Fein this or any other week. But clearly she overstepped an unwritten mark.
This all reeks of a deliberate and organised dehumanisation of even the most liberal and moderate pro-union voices. I’m not talking deliberately provocative figures like Jim Wells or Nelson McCausland, but voices that have spoken in favour of the campaigns for social liberalisation we’ve seen in recent years. Voices representing people who are comfortable with an evolved, inclusive society and want nothing more than to play their part.
People who have had their certainties challenged by Brexit and DUP resistance to social change. Who feel uncomfortable with the way the UK as a whole is evolving. People who in many cases – especially younger ones – do not feel any innate hostility to the possibility of Irish Unity in the medium term.
In short, people are ready for very real bridge-building with nationalism across the island. If nationalism wants to make these people and their parents feel wanted or valued in the Ireland they envisage, they need to start demonstrating it. With sincerity.
Photo by Free-Photos is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA
Photo by Free-Photos is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA


sluggerotoole--2020-03-25--Good book reads to get away from it all.

I thought I would share some good book reads that could be good for you to just escape from it all .
So here are the books I am trying to get through/re read • Parkrun by Debra Bourne-This book tells the story of how this started in 2004 and how it has grown to become something huge .
• I just started this one this morning but it ’ s been good so far Why Running Matters : Lessons in Life , Pain and Exhilaration From 5K to the Marathon by Ian Mortimer .
You will note they ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s easier to say they are stories of how randomers have gotten better over time .
I started doing parkrun last year and at the number 22 mark and my goals are to run it in less than 30 mins and do 50 before the end of 2020 but depending how this goes I may have to amend it slightly .
Re-reads are as follows • Hell at the Gates by John Lee and Daniel McConnell which tells the story of the Cowen government during the economic crisis .
• NITRO : @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Ted Turner ’ s WCW by Guy Evans .
Anyone who was my age grew up when wrestling was at its most popular but this takes you behind the scenes and even if you ’ re not a fan , the intrigue and politics is fascinating to read .
Four books is a lot to take on but I have found that at moments before bed , one of them will grab me and keep me interested .
I would suggest the following , take 10 minutes to set aside reading time per @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have that time to just be away from news .
Once again , leave your own suggestions down below .

I thought I would share some good book reads that could be good for you to just escape from it all.
So here are the books I am trying to get through/re read
Parkrun by Debra Bourne-This book tells the story of how this started in 2004 and how it has grown to become something huge. I just started this one this morning but it’s been good so far Why Running Matters: Lessons in Life, Pain and Exhilaration From 5K to the Marathon by Ian Mortimer.
You will note they’re both running books or perhaps it’s easier to say they are stories of how randomers have gotten better over time. I started doing parkrun last year and at the number 22 mark and my goals are to run it in less than 30 mins and do 50 before the end of 2020 but depending how this goes I may have to amend it slightly.
Re-reads are as follows
Hell at the Gates by John Lee and Daniel McConnell which tells the story of the Cowen government during the economic crisis. NITRO: The Incredible Rise and Inevitable Collapse of Ted Turner’s WCW by Guy Evans. Anyone who was my age grew up when wrestling was at its most popular but this takes you behind the scenes and even if you’re not a fan, the intrigue and politics is fascinating to read.
Four books is a lot to take on but I have found that at moments before bed, one of them will grab me and keep me interested. I would suggest the following, take 10 minutes to set aside reading time per day. It’s nice to have that time to just be away from news.
Once again, leave your own suggestions down below.


sluggerotoole--2020-03-26--Tune into day two of #ImagineBelfast’s online festival between 1pm and 9pm for democracy, fact-check

Tune into day two of #ImagineBelfast’s online festival between 1pm and 9pm for democracy, fact-checking, commemoration, abomination, music and more

It ’ s day two of Imagine !
Belfast Festival of Ideas and Politics , streaming talks and interviews between @ @ @ @ @ festival should have featured over 90 face-to-face events , but COVID-19 called for a change @ @ @ @ @ Peter O ’ Neill pivoted online , creating what is likely to be Northern Ireland @ @ @ @ @ festival with three days of broadcast programming .
Day Two takes in democracy , a @ @ @ @ @ , an interview with the maker of a behind-the-scenes documentary about Abomination : A DUP @ @ @ @ @ a dip into last year ’ s festival archive for a session on the ethical @ @ @ @ @ why fact-checking matters .
There are also locally-made short films in the regular Film Devour @ @ @ @ @ entertainment to brighten up the evening from Emer Maguire .
If you missed it yesterday @ @ @ @ @ the latest episode of Slugger TV online , along with all the other sessions , @ @ @ @ @ website .

It’s day two of Imagine! Belfast Festival of Ideas and Politics, streaming talks and interviews between 1pm and 9pm.
The festival should have featured over 90 face-to-face events, but COVID-19 called for a change of plan. Festival director Peter O’Neill pivoted online, creating what is likely to be Northern Ireland’s first fully virtual festival with three days of broadcast programming.
Day Two takes in democracy, a talk by Prof John Barry, an interview with the maker of a behind-the-scenes documentary about Abomination: A DUP Opera, as well as a dip into last year’s festival archive for a session on the ethical commemoration of the Troubles and why fact-checking matters. There are also locally-made short films in the regular Film Devour Showcase slots, and musical entertainment to brighten up the evening from Emer Maguire.
If you missed it yesterday, you can still catch the latest episode of Slugger TV online, along with all the other sessions, on the Imagine! Belfast website.


sluggerotoole--2020-03-26--Slugger is looking for new writers, why not give it a go?

So there you are stuck in the house going mental , why not try writing something for Slugger ?
We are looking for new writers from any background and on any topic .
We especially would like to attract more female and unionist voices .
You do not need to have previous writing experience .
If you are a regular in our comments why not try writing a post ?
Many of our recent popular writers like Choyaa , Jay Burbank and John Mooney were commentators on the site .
We do not pay for posts ( no one involves @ @ @ @ @ @ @ writers find it rewarding , writing is very creative .
Write about your work .
It would be good to get some posts from police officers , doctors , nurses , barristers etc .
It is interesting to get an insight into other professions .
Reminisces .
Got an interesting tale ?
Share it with the group .
Big thoughts .
Got an idea for a gondola from Belfast to Lisburn ?
Got views on Ireland after Covid 19 ?
What to create some fake historical sites to keep the tourists happy ?
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ and other experts .
We get quite a few academics writing for Slugger but we would always like more , unlike Michael Gove we quite like experts .
Best of all , unlike obscure journals , people on Slugger will actually read your work , and it ticks the social engagement box .
Plug your stuff .
Got a book out ?
If it is relevant to our audience we are quite happy to give you a bit of publicity .
Please don ’ t think every post needs to be 500 words @ @ @ @ @ @ @ issue in Northern Ireland politics .
While those posts are welcome we also like more light-hearted posts , especially in these anxious times .
Posts are normally 500 words but can be more or less if needed .
We do prefer if you write under your real name but can make exceptions for insider accounts .
The next step is to send a sample post to me brian @ sluggerotoole.com of any of the team .
Photo by Prateek Katyal is licensed under CC0

So there you are stuck in the house going mental, why not try writing something for Slugger?
We are looking for new writers from any background and on any topic. We especially would like to attract more female and unionist voices.
You do not need to have previous writing experience. If you are a regular in our comments why not try writing a post? Many of our recent popular writers like Choyaa, Jay Burbank and John Mooney were commentators on the site. We do not pay for posts (no one involves with Slugger gets paid) but our writers find it rewarding, writing is very creative.
Some suggested topics:
Write about your work. It would be good to get some posts from police officers, doctors, nurses, barristers etc. It is interesting to get an insight into other professions.
Reminisces. Got an interesting tale? Share it with the group.
Big thoughts. Got an idea for a gondola from Belfast to Lisburn? Got views on Ireland after Covid 19? What to create some fake historical sites to keep the tourists happy? Tell us about your idea.
Academics and other experts. We get quite a few academics writing for Slugger but we would always like more, unlike Michael Gove we quite like experts. Best of all, unlike obscure journals, people on Slugger will actually read your work, and it ticks the social engagement box.
Plug your stuff. Got a book out? If it is relevant to our audience we are quite happy to give you a bit of publicity.
Please don’t think every post needs to be 500 words of carefully crafted prose on a burning issue in Northern Ireland politics. While those posts are welcome we also like more light-hearted posts, especially in these anxious times.
Posts are normally 500 words but can be more or less if needed. We do prefer if you write under your real name but can make exceptions for insider accounts.
The next step is to send a sample post to me [email protected] of any of the team.
Don’t delay, get typing!
Photo by Prateek Katyal is licensed under CC0


sluggerotoole--2020-04-17--Breakdown of COVID-19-related deaths in Northern Ireland published for week ending 10 April

Statistics released this morning by the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency ( home to the General Register Office ) reveal that up until 10 April , there were 157 COVID-19-related deaths in Northern Ireland .
Information provided on death certificates allows them to break down the place of death : • 41 people died in care homes and hospices ( 26 % ) across 23 separate establishments The most comparable ‘ daily ’ figure from the PHA surveillance reports which are announced each day ( and sometimes updated as further information is made available ) suggests that there were @ @ @ @ @ @ @ COVID-19 test up to 10 April , covering deaths in hospital plus some notified from care homes or hospices where the patient had had a positive test .
The PHA figures include anyone with a positive test , whether COVID-19 is the cause of death .
The new figures reveal that there were 39 – a third – additional deaths that weren ’ t detectable by the daily PHA reporting , ie , people who hadn ’ t been formally tested .
One caveat to note is that these new figures include any @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the death certificate , whether it was the primary underlying cause of death or not .
The devil is in the detail of statistics .
• PHA ’ s daily figure of people who died in the previous 24 hour measurement period ( up to 5pm the day before ) and had tested positive is the most contemporary figure and comparable with other regions of the UK and internationally .
• The new weekly figure from NISRA based on date of death has been developed to allow backward comparison with PHA ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the total numbers of deaths related to COVID-19 , the most stable metric to use is NISRA ’ s weekly provisional death statistic which is based on the date of registration of the death ( rather than the date of death ) and is less likely to have to be corrected due to late information .
[ CORRECTION ] That statistic reports that 76 ( 17.5 % ) out of a total of 435 deaths registered in Northern Ireland in the week ending 10 April mentioned COVID-19 on their death certificate .
Earlier @ @ @ @ @ @ @ article about the difference in the statistics across the UK .

Statistics released this morning by the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (home to the General Register Office) reveal that up until 10 April, there were 157 COVID-19-related deaths in Northern Ireland. Information provided on death certificates allows them to break down the place of death:
109 people died in hospital (69%)
41 people died in care homes and hospices (26%) across 23 separate establishments
7 people died at residential addresses (4%)
The most comparable ‘daily’ figure from the PHA surveillance reports which are announced each day (and sometimes updated as further information is made available) suggests that there were 118 deaths of people with a positive COVID-19 test up to 10 April, covering deaths in hospital plus some notified from care homes or hospices where the patient had had a positive test. The PHA figures include anyone with a positive test, whether or not COVID-19 is the cause of death.
The new figures reveal that there were 39 – a third – additional deaths that weren’t detectable by the daily PHA reporting, ie, people who hadn’t been formally tested.
One caveat to note is that these new figures include any mention of COVID-19 in the free-form text of the death certificate, whether it was the primary underlying cause of death or not.
The devil is in the detail of statistics.
PHA’s daily figure of people who died in the previous 24 hour measurement period (up to 5pm the day before) and had tested positive is the most contemporary figure and comparable with other regions of the UK and internationally.
The new weekly figure from NISRA based on date of death has been developed to allow backward comparison with PHA’s daily one.
To compare the total numbers of deaths related to COVID-19, the most stable metric to use is NISRA’s weekly provisional death statistic which is based on the date of registration of the death (rather than the date of death) and is less likely to have to be corrected due to late information. [CORRECTION] That statistic reports that 76 (17.5%) out of a total of 435 deaths registered in Northern Ireland in the week ending 10 April mentioned COVID-19 on their death certificate.
Earlier this week, FactCheckNI published an explainer article about the difference in the statistics across the UK.


sluggerotoole--2020-04-17--Policy is always a choice…

Policy is always a choice…

Perhaps I am within a rare category of people who believe that ‘ neoliberalism ’ has created some positive outcomes for society .
I will use a definition of neo-liberalism which is summed up best by the economist Fredrich von Hayek of the Austrian school .
His ideology and that of the 1980s mainstream was to abandon Keysianism of the post war era which preached the economics of maximum supply and output through high government taxation and spending .
This spiralled out of control in the 1970s , contributed massively to the environmental collapse and created inflation in many oil @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ Stagflation ” ) .
The total by-products of this ideology are many and go beyond this one post , but I will make an observation on what I think it has done to politics , particularly in our own corner of the world .
The abolition of the ‘ post war settlement ’ in the 1980s led to an explosion of financialization in the economy .
The government subscribed to the ‘ monetarist ’ theories of Milton Friedman who believed in a laissez-faire approach on the fiscal side of the economy but @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the state .
In short the money supply itself , this is what ‘ central banking ’ is in a nutshell and it is why in the 2008 crash they printed over $ 6 Trillion of new money through quantitative easing ( US figures ) and pushed democratically elected governments to make their credit worthiness higher to stave off any chance of default on sovereign debt through ‘ austerity.
’ This spurred a short reign of the ‘ technocrats ’ who were mostly of banking and economics training .
In Italy one @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in Ireland the ‘ troika ’ ( representatives of the IMF , ECB and EU commission ) flew in to institute a similar programme .
In essence they preached an ideology that was ultra-orthodox in its neoliberal approach .
They told us that only through market confidence , cutting public services to reduce fiscal deficits and using public borrowing power to re-capitalise private banks could we return to normalcy .
The only error that has now haunted them in the vein of ‘ populism ’ was their rank arrogance in believing there was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of cold rationality that led to the creation of the workhouses in the nineteenth century as the worst excesses of a rampant free market rode roughshod over the urban working classes in Britain and Ireland .
I believe that this technocratic rationalism has blurred any concept of political choice and has in effect poisoned political discourse .
This is why populism continues to take hold and why the internet runs wild with conspiracy theories about economic inequality being part of some worldwide elitist conspiracy , rather than it simply being a perverse outcome @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Ireland politics , with our legalistic Assembly institutions and our ‘ arm ’ s length bodies ’ we also repeatedly fall into the trap that policy isn ’ t about choice .
Policy should be evidence led , it should engage with stakeholders , but it will invariably have positive and negative outcomes – that is what makes it a choice .
This is why I will continue to support policy causes I think are right and which I can see having the greatest effect on our collective wellbeing .

Perhaps I am within a rare category of people who believe that ‘neoliberalism’ has created some positive outcomes for society. I will use a definition of neo-liberalism which is summed up best by the economist Fredrich von Hayek of the Austrian school. His ideology and that of the 1980s mainstream was to abandon Keysianism of the post war era which preached the economics of maximum supply and output through high government taxation and spending.
This spiralled out of control in the 1970s, contributed massively to the environmental collapse and created inflation in many oil hungry nations such as our own (“Stagflation”). The total by-products of this ideology are many and go beyond this one post, but I will make an observation on what I think it has done to politics, particularly in our own corner of the world.
The abolition of the ‘post war settlement’ in the 1980s led to an explosion of financialization in the economy. The government subscribed to the ‘monetarist’ theories of Milton Friedman who believed in a laissez-faire approach on the fiscal side of the economy but an interventionist one using the monetary levers of the state. In short the money supply itself, this is what ‘central banking’ is in a nutshell and it is why in the 2008 crash they printed over $6 Trillion of new money through quantitative easing (US figures) and pushed democratically elected governments to make their credit worthiness higher to stave off any chance of default on sovereign debt through ‘austerity.’
This spurred a short reign of the ‘technocrats’ who were mostly of banking and economics training. In Italy one of them even became prime minister, in Ireland the ‘troika’ (representatives of the IMF, ECB and EU commission) flew in to institute a similar programme. In essence they preached an ideology that was ultra-orthodox in its neoliberal approach. They told us that only through market confidence, cutting public services to reduce fiscal deficits and using public borrowing power to re-capitalise private banks could we return to normalcy.
The only error that has now haunted them in the vein of ‘populism’ was their rank arrogance in believing there was no alternative. It is this form of cold rationality that led to the creation of the workhouses in the nineteenth century as the worst excesses of a rampant free market rode roughshod over the urban working classes in Britain and Ireland.
I believe that this technocratic rationalism has blurred any concept of political choice and has in effect poisoned political discourse. This is why populism continues to take hold and why the internet runs wild with conspiracy theories about economic inequality being part of some worldwide elitist conspiracy, rather than it simply being a perverse outcome of an imperfect system.
In Northern Ireland politics, with our legalistic Assembly institutions and our ‘arm’s length bodies’ we also repeatedly fall into the trap that policy isn’t about choice. Policy should be evidence led, it should engage with stakeholders, but it will invariably have positive and negative outcomes – that is what makes it a choice. This is why I will continue to support policy causes I think are right and which I can see having the greatest effect on our collective wellbeing.


sluggerotoole--2020-04-17--Integrity. It’s a dying word…

Integrity. It’s a dying word…

I suppose one of the definitive aspects of being a parent is the acceptance of who our grown-up children eventually choose as a partner .
In an ideal world we might have in mind someone with the qualities each of us might espouse : honesty , kindness , empathy , tolerance perhaps , with a sprinkling of humour and intelligence thrown in for good measure .
We can all make our own list , most of which is wishful thinking considering that realistically stuff like that is mainly beyond our control .
Someone a lot wiser than me ( my @ @ @ @ @ @ @ trick was to welcome any prospective interloper graciously into the fold of the family while keeping your fingers firmly crossed under the table and keeping your mouth closed .
While this obviously prudent view of the world is what I have tried to pertain to since adulthood , I ’ m not so sure if that forbearance would withstand the pressure of a son or daughter deciding to bring home someone who , in the course of a conversation about immigration , came out with , “ Why are we having all these @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” Any decent human being wouldn ’ t have to think too long about where that particular person ’ s mind-set is and why they might think it acceptable to offer such defamatory opinions .
In ‘ An American Dream ’ , a Channel 4 series about Donald Trump that followed his life from youthful entrepreneur to President of the US , I was struck by how rather more articulate he seemed at the beginning and yes , even how vulnerable he appeared at times .
Undoubtedly , there was a sense of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , traits that have seemingly been nurtured ever since , but what intrigued me about the younger Donald were his values , or rather , lack of them .
Where does the absolute belief stem from that the only things of importance in life are one-upmanship and how much money you have in the bank ?
But even above and beyond the narcissistic tendencies that are portrayed now on a daily basis , Mr Trump ’ s lack of awareness or understanding of the human condition in all its forms is , in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of his character .
I am trying to be charitable here when I say that I hope part of the reason is simply blatant lack of will rather than some kind of terrible void in his personality that does not countenance empathy to any degree .
In my life so far I ’ ve been fortunate to have experienced and enjoyed living in a variety of different cultures .
I ’ ve spent a number of years in the US , the Middle East and of course , the UK , my home @ @ @ @ @ @ @ or city in any of them would I describe as a s–thole despite many of their features being at times pretty dubious .
Why ?
Because when you start to value something simply by how it looks or how it benefits you and not by its beating heart , i.e .
the people who keep a place alive , then there is something terribly , terribly wrong with how you see the world .
As I get older the sheer speed of technological advances and the power of the internet are becoming an @ @ @ @ @ @ @ m determined to hold on to the one thing that means the most to me – integrity .
It ’ s a dying word .
Now , sadly , a kind of dirty word .
A word that is being trampled underfoot so fast that it hardly has time to come up for breath anymore but I am holding on to it for dear life .
I offer the word integrity to Mr Trump with a free definition : ‘ the quality of being honest and having strong moral principles that you refuse @ @ @ @ @ @ @ unpredictable times , I find myself watching live daily Press briefings from The Whitehouse .
I would urge others to do likewise because they offer a much truer insight into Mr Trump ’ s character traits than the occasional soundbite carefully chosen on television news .
It ’ s quite shocking to witness the belittling dismissals of any journalist who dares to ask an uncomfortable question ( ignorance/control ) , or the blame that is apportioned to anyone but himself ( conceit ) , or the conviction that money comes before all else @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Returning to my original analogy of prospective suitors for our children – well , there ’ s a line that shouldn ’ t be crossed and as a parent , any one of the above mentioned personality traits would be that step too far .
I really want to believe that there is still some hope that President Trump can prove himself to be the worthy and benevolent leader that surely he could and ought to be , especially in these present times .
The lives of so many Americans now depend upon @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not holding my breath .
Photo by geralt is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA

I suppose one of the definitive aspects of being a parent is the acceptance of who our grown-up children eventually choose as a partner. In an ideal world we might have in mind someone with the qualities each of us might espouse: honesty, kindness, empathy, tolerance perhaps, with a sprinkling of humour and intelligence thrown in for good measure. We can all make our own list, most of which is wishful thinking considering that realistically stuff like that is mainly beyond our control. Someone a lot wiser than me (my father), once said that the trick was to welcome any prospective interloper graciously into the fold of the family while keeping your fingers firmly crossed under the table and keeping your mouth closed.
While this obviously prudent view of the world is what I have tried to pertain to since adulthood, I’m not so sure if that forbearance would withstand the pressure of a son or daughter deciding to bring home someone who, in the course of a conversation about immigration, came out with, “Why are we having all these people from s–thole countries come here?” Any decent human being wouldn’t have to think too long about where that particular person’s mind-set is and why they might think it acceptable to offer such defamatory opinions.
In ‘An American Dream’, a Channel 4 series about Donald Trump that followed his life from youthful entrepreneur to President of the US, I was struck by how rather more articulate he seemed at the beginning and yes, even how vulnerable he appeared at times. Undoubtedly, there was a sense of arrogance and superiority about him even then, traits that have seemingly been nurtured ever since, but what intrigued me about the younger Donald were his values, or rather, lack of them. Where does the absolute belief stem from that the only things of importance in life are one-upmanship and how much money you have in the bank? But even above and beyond the narcissistic tendencies that are portrayed now on a daily basis, Mr Trump’s lack of awareness or understanding of the human condition in all its forms is, in my opinion, the most belligerent aspect of his character. I am trying to be charitable here when I say that I hope part of the reason is simply blatant lack of will rather than some kind of terrible void in his personality that does not countenance empathy to any degree.
In my life so far I’ve been fortunate to have experienced and enjoyed living in a variety of different cultures. I’ve spent a number of years in the US, the Middle East and of course, the UK, my home. Not a single village, town or city in any of them would I describe as a s–thole despite many of their features being at times pretty dubious. Why? Because when you start to value something simply by how it looks or how it benefits you and not by its beating heart, i.e. the people who keep a place alive, then there is something terribly, terribly wrong with how you see the world.
As I get older the sheer speed of technological advances and the power of the internet are becoming an increasing source of worry but I’m determined to hold on to the one thing that means the most to me – integrity. It’s a dying word. Now, sadly, a kind of dirty word. A word that is being trampled underfoot so fast that it hardly has time to come up for breath anymore but I am holding on to it for dear life. I offer the word integrity to Mr Trump with a free definition: ‘the quality of being honest and having strong moral principles that you refuse to change.’
In these awful and unpredictable times, I find myself watching live daily Press briefings from The Whitehouse. I would urge others to do likewise because they offer a much truer insight into Mr Trump’s character traits than the occasional soundbite carefully chosen on television news. It’s quite shocking to witness the belittling dismissals of any journalist who dares to ask an uncomfortable question (ignorance/control), or the blame that is apportioned to anyone but himself (conceit), or the conviction that money comes before all else (greed). Ad infinitum.
Returning to my original analogy of prospective suitors for our children – well, there’s a line that shouldn’t be crossed and as a parent, any one of the above mentioned personality traits would be that step too far. I really want to believe that there is still some hope that President Trump can prove himself to be the worthy and benevolent leader that surely he could and ought to be, especially in these present times. The lives of so many Americans now depend upon it. But I’m really not holding my breath.
Photo by geralt is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA


sluggerotoole--2020-04-17--Shock of #Covid19 is an opportunity to change NI for the better

For all the catastrophising of this event , Northern Ireland seems to be holding up fine .
That ’ s in large part because of the people of Northern Ireland ( and I mean all , not some ) have changed their habits and bought our health system precious time .
Belfast ’ s hospitals have themselves turned on a sixpence and remain still well under capacity as far as Covid19 is concerned .
The number of people coming to Accident and Emergency is flatlining as people think twice about turning up .
On the upside , this suggests the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a finite , not an infinite resource and their change in behaviours means that we are not seeing the terrible chaos ripping through our hospitals the way northern Italian health service has .
On the downside , some patients who need urgent help may be holding back from going into hospital may not be going there for the dread fear of catching this virus .
Ben Lowry reports 1,900 empty beds across Northern Ireland and many non Covid related deaths .
This is a measure of our success in preparing for the worst @ @ @ @ @ @ @ but it doesn ’ t mean ( contrary to the views of some of the more hysterical corners of the local press commentators ) , the long game here is neither won nor lost yet .
Health Minister Robin Swann , who has taken an unwarranted level of political abuse ( including that nasty old NI staple , the politically-motivated death threat ) has asked people to stop playing ( brainless ) games over who ’ s doing better , the UK or Ireland : The sort of comparisons made by Fintan O @ @ @ @ @ @ @ one , testing rates in the north and the south have roughly equalised in terms of numbers ; and two , Mary Lou McDonald ’ s COVID positive was delivered more than a fortnight later .
This tells us the real rate of southern testing is slower than advertised ( an omnishambles one nurse called it ) by Michelle O ’ Neill .
It ’ s not a conspiracy , it ’ s just that the whole world was unready for this and we ’ re ALL desperately trying to catch up .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ are very misleading .
The higher UK death figures are still relatively proportionally when compared to France , where the preparations in their health service were more advanced than either Ireland or the UK .
Differential rates will likely hinge upon other factors like international trade , population density and the availability ( or otherwise ) of private alternatives to overcrowded public transport .
Human geography is ignored in favour of polarising and jingoistic badinage .
London is a global trade hub , densely populated , reliant on public transport with a population @ @ @ @ @ @ @ utilising its own much smaller density to do a far more liberal ‘ non-lockdown ’ regime with relatively low mortality rates .
Both countries ’ slowness in getting mortality figures from care homes speaks to the rigidities of public administration and the fragmentation of social care in both countries .
It ’ s not some wilful trick conjured up by stupid politicians/civil servants .
This is a key weakness in those who belatedly claim that Northern Ireland should have followed the Republic ’ s public health strategy .
The fact is you can @ @ @ @ @ @ @ planned and prepared to do so long before the virus hits .
And the fact is that we had plenty of time to do something .
The evidence of poor preparation for a public health crisis stretches back to the dioxin in pigs scare at the end of 2008 , in which it took nearly three days for notification to reach the NI Executive .
Some of us argued back then that a broad self-interest existed such that strengthening the competence of the relevant cross border public health body from promotion to implementing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ remains ) a no brainer .
Whatever we see on the outside ( and however critical we armchair health experts are ) department of health officials have been moving mountains because their performance now matters to the real lives of people in NI in a way Stormont rarely has before .
Doing government in NI brings a low premium compared with the Twitter borne virtue signaling and the re-tribalisation that has characterised the re-start we thought we were getting after 1998 .
In the face of Covid19 , old fears and hatreds won @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and not just in NI but across the world ) seems only to come into the public spotlight when it comes into disrepute and its successes go unremarked upon .
This makes it easy to public traduce it , or imagine it is not having any effect .
But as Simon notes of local government in England , just because you can ’ t see it on a public map somewhere , doesn ’ t mean it is not in the territory : For many of Northern Ireland ’ s narrowing population of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , foreign country so faced with the terrifying uncertainty of the present crisis many just lean back into the comfort of tribal certainty .
Worse is the general tendency of journalists to seek testimony from public figures and then republish without reflection or adding serious judgment as to its veracity , which leads to the permanent lodgement prefabricated party narratives in the public mind .
This is how President Trump got his start and why ( against present expectations of those outraged liberals who helped put him there ) he may be successfully @ @ @ @ @ @ @ re-transmission of tribal outrage is a populist ’ s godsend .
Trouble is that it sells papers and gets clicks and rage and misery sharing platforms like Twitter and Facebook .
It won ’ t help us to face the potentially traumatising layers of change we face after the tail of this global epidemic has hurried through our societies .
After the galvansing stage of this emergency , other work will have to be done .
That will take more than just the honesty and hard work of Robin Swann and others , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ broad recognition of our abiding interdependence .
Lessons can be drawn from the fact that decisionmaking and risk-taking are now moving at lightening speed .
Politicians might learn from Frau Merkel how to communicate the fragility of our situation without scaring the bejesus out of the public : Above all , our political leaders need to tell a story of hope .
In Churchill ’ s famous finest hour speech he note , “ if we open a quarrel between the past and the present , we shall find that we have lost @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in a better future .
Big gains can be made by leaders who pay attention to the need to build a resilient society in the long term , not by carping on the sides or mumbling their own words to Trump ’ s infamous dirge about ‘ draining the swamp ’ but through real leadership If we are lucky there is a major reset coming .
No one wants to return to the last thirteen years of sham fights and excuses for inaction ( or promises of a tomorrow that never came ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for example , not just politics must up their game .
We need diggers and dreamers and leaders with foresight to grasp the upsides of the changes that may come and the sense to anticipate the downsides with an ambitious programme of actions and not just the usual empty promises and hollow words .
While we see a chance to change things ( and ourselves in the process ) for the better , we should take it .
We may not get a second chance .
Who knows what Covid23 ( or a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ As Sun Tzu said ‘ opportunities multiply as they are seized.
’ Photo by Alexas_Fotos is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA

“When we are no longer able to change a situation, we are challenged to change ourselves.” Viktor E. Frankl
For all the catastrophising of this event, Northern Ireland seems to be holding up fine. That’s in large part because of the people of Northern Ireland (and I mean all, not some) have changed their habits and bought our health system precious time.
Belfast’s hospitals have themselves turned on a sixpence and remain still well under capacity as far as Covid19 is concerned. The number of people coming to Accident and Emergency is flatlining as people think twice about turning up.
On the upside, this suggests the penny has dropped that health provision is a finite, not an infinite resource and their change in behaviours means that we are not seeing the terrible chaos ripping through our hospitals the way northern Italian health service has.
On the downside, some patients who need urgent help may be holding back from going into hospital may not be going there for the dread fear of catching this virus. Ben Lowry reports 1,900 empty beds across Northern Ireland and many non Covid related deaths.
This is a measure of our success in preparing for the worst (with very little notice), but it doesn’t mean (contrary to the views of some of the more hysterical corners of the local press commentators), the long game here is neither won nor lost yet.
Health Minister Robin Swann, who has taken an unwarranted level of political abuse (including that nasty old NI staple, the politically-motivated death threat) has asked people to stop playing (brainless) games over who’s doing better, the UK or Ireland:
The Health Minister updated the @niassembly today on: ▫PPE
▫Testing
▫Restrictions You can read his full statement here: https://t.co/HIex4sFNbA pic.twitter.com/5l18BQp7jF — Department of Health (@healthdpt) April 15, 2020
The sort of comparisons made by Fintan O’Toole ignores the fact that: one, testing rates in the north and the south have roughly equalised in terms of numbers; and two, Mary Lou McDonald’s COVID positive was delivered more than a fortnight later.
This tells us the real rate of southern testing is slower than advertised (an omnishambles one nurse called it) by Michelle O’Neill. It’s not a conspiracy, it’s just that the whole world was unready for this and we’re ALL desperately trying to catch up.
Such comparisons reek of provincialist resentment and are very misleading. The higher UK death figures are still relatively proportionally when compared to France, where the preparations in their health service were more advanced than either Ireland or the UK.
Differential rates will likely hinge upon other factors like international trade, population density and the availability (or otherwise) of private alternatives to overcrowded public transport. Human geography is ignored in favour of polarising and jingoistic badinage.
London is a global trade hub, densely populated, reliant on public transport with a population the size of Sweden (which currently utilising its own much smaller density to do a far more liberal ‘non-lockdown’ regime with relatively low mortality rates.
Both countries’ slowness in getting mortality figures from care homes speaks to the rigidities of public administration and the fragmentation of social care in both countries. It’s not some wilful trick conjured up by stupid politicians/civil servants.
This is a key weakness in those who belatedly claim that Northern Ireland should have followed the Republic’s public health strategy. The fact is you can do that only if you have already planned and prepared to do so long before the virus hits.
And the fact is that we had plenty of time to do something. The evidence of poor preparation for a public health crisis stretches back to the dioxin in pigs scare at the end of 2008, in which it took nearly three days for notification to reach the NI Executive.
Some of us argued back then that a broad self-interest existed such that strengthening the competence of the relevant cross border public health body from promotion to implementing some public health co-ordination was (and remains) a no brainer.
Whatever we see on the outside (and however critical we armchair health experts are) department of health officials have been moving mountains because their performance now matters to the real lives of people in NI in a way Stormont rarely has before.
Doing government in NI brings a low premium compared with the Twitter borne virtue signaling and the re-tribalisation that has characterised the re-start we thought we were getting after 1998. In the face of Covid19, old fears and hatreds won’t suffice.
Public administration (and not just in NI but across the world) seems only to come into the public spotlight when it comes into disrepute and its successes go unremarked upon. This makes it easy to public traduce it, or imagine it is not having any effect.
But as Simon notes of local government in England, just because you can’t see it on a public map somewhere, doesn’t mean it is not in the territory:
https://twitter.com/SimonFParker/status/1251060932236783619
For many of Northern Ireland’s narrowing population of mainstream commentators public administration remains a dull, foreign country so faced with the terrifying uncertainty of the present crisis many just lean back into the comfort of tribal certainty.
Worse is the general tendency of journalists to seek testimony from public figures and then republish without reflection or adding serious judgment as to its veracity, which leads to the permanent lodgement prefabricated party narratives in the public mind.
This is how President Trump got his start and why (against present expectations of those outraged liberals who helped put him there) he may be successfully be re-elected come this November. Passive re-transmission of tribal outrage is a populist’s godsend.
Trouble is that it sells papers and gets clicks on rage and misery sharing platforms like Twitter and Facebook. It won’t help us to face the potentially traumatising layers of change we face after the tail of this global epidemic has hurried through our societies.
After the galvansing stage of this emergency, other work will have to be done. That will take more than just the honesty and hard work of Robin Swann and others, it will require a shared vision and broad recognition of our abiding interdependence.
Lessons can be drawn from the fact that decisionmaking and risk-taking are now moving at lightening speed. Politicians might learn from Frau Merkel how to communicate the fragility of our situation without scaring the bejesus out of the public:
This is how Angela Merkel explained the effect of a higher #covid19 infection rate on the country's health system. This part of today's press conf was great, so I just added English subtitels for all non-German speakers. #flattenthecurve pic.twitter.com/VzBLdh16kR — Benjamin Alvarez (@BenjAlvarez1) April 15, 2020
Above all, our political leaders need to tell a story of hope. In Churchill’s famous finest hour speech he note, “if we open a quarrel between the past and the present, we shall find that we have lost the future”, so re-igniting hope in a better future.
Big gains can be made by leaders who pay attention to the need to build a resilient society in the long term, not by carping on the sides or mumbling their own words to Trump’s infamous dirge about ‘draining the swamp’ but through real leadership
If we are lucky there is a major reset coming. No one wants to return to the last thirteen years of sham fights and excuses for inaction (or promises of a tomorrow that never came). Others too, in journalism, for example, not just politics must up their game.
We need diggers and dreamers and leaders with foresight to grasp the upsides of the changes that may come and the sense to anticipate the downsides with an ambitious programme of actions and not just the usual empty promises and hollow words.
While we see a chance to change things (and ourselves in the process) for the better, we should take it. We may not get a second chance. Who knows what Covid23 (or a similar systemic threat) may bring? As Sun Tzu said ‘opportunities multiply as they are seized.’
Photo by Alexas_Fotos is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA