sluggerotoole--2020-03-09--There’s more to it than polling. Ireland needs more than one choice of political future.

Although Irish unity has been a common obsession for more a century we can only marvel at how little it has been considered as a realistic proposition .
In the Republic Sinn Fein ’ s surge at the general election has promoted it to a higher but still uncertain place in an agenda preoccupied with economic reform .
In the GFA , the issue was from the start insulated from what really mattered at the time , the winning of the peace and the effective operation of power sharing .
We do not know how two necessarily contingent and concurrent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Even more basically we have little idea of what the Republic has in mind as their offer of unity assuming they eventually make one , or whether a British government would chose to offer an opinion on the matter although they are legally obliged to support a unity verdict .
What we are close to knowing I believe is that opinion polls and surveys alone pored over in a Whitehall office by a British minister are unacceptable as the decisive criteria for calling a northern referendum and therefore triggering the whole process @ @ @ @ @ @ @ A united Ireland will not happen by elision .
Belief in its inevitability is all very well , but strong incentives will be needed for a partly hostile and poorer north and assurances for an otherwise preoccupied south .
Many in the south would oppose a stampede for unity which would allow the northern tail to wag the southern dog .
The dimensions of unity reach far beyond the definitions of binary referendum questions .
So we have yet to set up the drawing board .
Buoyed up by the huge surge of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pressures for economic reform , Sinn Fein will keep up the rhetorical pressure for unity .
The government that is eventually formed will not allow Sinn Fein to turn their flank and will respond , but cautiously .
Even Sinn Fein know that unity is not the magic bullet and will be broadly content to bide their time , believing that demographics and the run of events are on their side .
As a first step , putting the establishment on notice to begin “ preparing for unity ” can be justified easily @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The people can think for themselves , independent of party In both jurisdictions and in very different ways , voters are no longer slaves to party orthodoxies .
They have administered sharp rebukes to major parties .
In the North nationalist voters joined unionists in giving Sinn Féin and the DUP a thrashing for three years of Stormont standoff .
In the South a few weeks later , record numbers defied the main parties ’ blackballing of Sinn Féin and rewarded them with the largest share of the vote .
These results @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as elsewhere are choosing to vote with discrimination rather than along the old party lines , making the old sectarian predictions increasingly unreliable .
In the Republic Micheál Martin , Sinn Féin ’ s most persistent critic during the election is being pressed by elements in his party to share power with them .
His record suggests be will not be stampeded into speeding up the pace .
For within the moderate nationalist consensus , the emphasis is on reconciliation rather than absorption .
Unionism is no longer a false consciousness .
Unionist @ @ @ @ @ @ @ nationalism .
But revisionism has its limits .
Sinn Féin will throw down the challenge : does unity then proceed at the unionists ’ pace ?
Both governments will wish to exercise some control over the complex process of complementary and mutually contingent referendums .
They will wish to reduce the risk of a crisis border poll which could threaten stability and automatically drag in the Republic into a premature response .
The means of doing so which are also the most democratically appropriate are threefold .
One , a majority in favour @ @ @ @ @ @ @ major election within a time frame should become the decisive criterion for calling the northern referendum .
If the nationalist parties disagreed they could withdraw from the Assembly and trigger an election anyway .
Two , the constitutional future of Ireland should be considered as an open question based on the two actual choices , unity and an updated GFA .
In both the Northern Ireland Assembly would continue .
Three , while the trigger rests with the North , the main responsibility for the form and character of unity can only come @ @ @ @ @ @ @ we are contemplating is one based on a choice of futures in which generous terms and conditions for unity would be clear and ready for ratification by the people .
The Irish want unity based on reconciliation and protecting the peace process .
They will not move until they are confident of being able to make the best possible offer .
In the final analysis they are prepared to lose the referendums and come back to unity at a later date .
If necessary they would restrain northern nationalists from jumping the gun @ @ @ @ @ @ @ assessing its affordability is by far the biggest challenge facing the Republic .
The state needs to expand considerably to catch up with the dynamic expansion of the private sector which has inflated house prices to near unaffordable levels for the aspiring young .
Dublin will not wish to press the unity agenda until they have devised an attractive offer .
Crucially this will involve negotiations with the British government on continuing a version of the Northern Ireland subvention .
Before any date if fixed for the referendums they have a great deal @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the electorate to the practical implications of unity .
The UK government share that duty north of the border .
The project should approach the future governance of Ireland as an open question .
The referendums should offer a choice of constitutional futures .
The survival of the Assembly should be the factor common to both .
A simple yes or no fails to reflect the real choice , unwittingly accepts a nationalist narrative , threatens essential mainstream unionist participation and limits the impact of the recommendations .
While it is entirely appropriate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ unity , fortunately one is oven ready .
The continuation of a devolved Northern Ireland within a united Ireland is the obvious model for at least the initial period of unity .
In other words , one country , two systems , the transfer of the north ’ s sovereignty from the UK to Ireland , leaving the GFA institutions largely intact and introducing a West Lothian- type self denying ordinance on southern TDs against voting on northern devolved matters .
This would be most readily understood by everybody .
Most importantly it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ guaranteeing them a role in government in a united Ireland .
Assurances for the protection of British and unionist citizen rights would be written into the constitution .
A debate should be held on whether the Assembly now part of Irish devolution , should be entrenched in the constitution and whether the UK government should act as guarantor of the rights of British citizens and unionists .
The whole package should be wrapped before the referendums to avoid the political disaster of two referendums particularly in Northern Ireland .
The settlement could be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Approval by an all-Ireland referendum would be appropriate for moving to a unitary state .
The structure and internal character of a united Ireland Amending the constitutional and legal framework could be the easy bit .
More daunting is devising a national plan for harmonisation and integration that describes the character of the unified state .
To start with this project should produce the latest estimate of the cost of unity .
The subvention from the UK would continue for a negotiated period .
The taxation system , pensions and welfare would @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to the euro and a choice made over time between the NHS and the Republic ’ s state health insurance system .
An international Marshall investment Plan heavily supported by the EU would be devised and special incentives created for transferring multinationals to the border region .
Some capital city features would be decanted to Belfast and Armagh and a great deal of energy would be expended on arguing over the display of British national symbols .
The plan for unity would be implemented over years .
In outline form it would be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ British government can not sit back and rely solely on pleading Irish self determination .
They would give assurances required by present sovereignty that they retain legal and moral responsibility for the well being of all their citizens in Northern Ireland until or unless Irish unity is achieved .
Why should the British engage before a border poll ?
As already explained , the first reason is to do all possible to maintain stability .
In this they are at one with the Irish government .
This approach would survive a transition from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this is to persuade all sides to respect the result .
The British government is legally obliged to implement a Northern vote in favour of Irish unity .
Otherwise we are as ignorant of the British position as we are about the Irish .
It ’ s essential to discover the approach of all parties at Westminster to the referendums A Conservative government may wish to influence the result in the interests not only of NI but “ the precious Union ” as a whole ; Labour neutral or persuaders for a good @ @ @ @ @ @ @ planning going on in Dublin it would unconscionable to be left out .
This applies whichever UK party is in power .
The GFA institution of the British-Irish Intergovernmental council is the natural forum of consultation on preparing for the referendums and the British -Irish aspects of the post- Brexit relationship .
But there ’ s stick as well as carrot .
By the term of the GFA , both governments have to be ready to legislate to enable a unity verdict to be implemented .
Opting for the status quo plus The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that describes the ideal pattern of relationships between unionist and nationalist , north and south , the UK and the Republic .
It guarantees rights and provides the machinery which naturally imposes collaboration in government on previously warring factions .
After each breakdown they have been forced to return .
No version of a united Ireland as yet produced achieves that .
Unity however dressed up in warm words , can only mean victory for nationalism and in republican minds , for the “ armed struggle.
” Have the institutions of the Good @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ?
In one sense all too well .
They have been weaponised by the Assembly parties with nationalists emphasising rights denied and unionists claiming violations of the principle of consent .
The British-Irish relationship has survived the Brexit freeze to impose terms on the parties to restore the Assembly .
Three years of stand-off ended with the vindication of the institutions .
New responsibilities are in prospect to help safeguard bilateral British-Irish and north-south interests once a new relationship is forged between UK and the EU .
Arguably the institutions are needed more @ @ @ @ @ @ @ It is a fact of life that although the term will be avoided , Northern Ireland will come increasingly under British- Irish joint authority .
That the relationship has survived the Brexit freeze is a tribute to its resilience and its relevance to the post-Brexit relationship .
It is also in Dublin ’ s interest to support efforts to minimise trade and regulatory frictions between GB and NI .
The question occurs : is the Assembly system the gateway to a united Ireland or its alternative ?
The project should examine the robustness @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to unity for the benefit of unionists and nationalists alike , taking in the proposed arrangements for Northern Ireland ’ s special status in the single market and the implications , political and economic , of “ the border in the Irish Sea ” .
The scope of the – arguably increasing – guarantor role of the Irish government in the GFA after Brexit .
Is it fully accepted by the UK ?
Does the Irish government have a GFA veto on direct rule ?
The unionist interpretation of the consent principle .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ first order ” be invoked to require a weighted majority in a border poll , in conformity with cross community consent in the Assembly ?
Is a special rights regime needed for Northern Ireland ?
How is the gap to be filled after the UK ’ s withdrawal from the Charter of Fundamental Rights ?
The implications of the UK government ’ s hints about striking a different balance between the courts , and the government and parliament , changes to the Human Rights Act and future access to the ECtHR , affecting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s determination to end “ vexatious prosecutions ” against serving and former soldiers compatible with justice for victims – also a burning topic with the Conservative right that could seriously split the Assembly ?
In relation to Northern Ireland ’ s special status in the single market , how effective will be the joint committee ’ s consultation mechanism to consult Northern Ireland and the Assembly ’ s role in approving its continuation by simple majority ?
How might a UK guarantor role for British citizens ’ rights operate in a united @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the emerging post Brexit settlement on the governance of the whole island and relations between the UK and Ireland ?
The influence of Brexit as a push factor for unity may be exaggerated .
Unionists are learning to grasp the essentials and de-dramatise the front stop .
Election to Westminster secures the Union ; all the rest is side salad .
Northern Ireland is no stranger to all sorts of hiatus between the two islands and on the border .
Few realise that work permits for Northern Ireland were required under the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ well as the south from the mid 1940s until finally abolished in the 1980s .
The NI parties are as one in attempting to mitigate the effects of a border in the Irish Sea and threats to the alignment of standards from the British government ’ s wider ambitions for a free trade deal .
Powerfully influenced by civil society , all parties are likely to continue common cause as advisers to the Northern Ireland protocol ’ s management committee .
Despite their level playing field concerns , any Irish government will seek @ @ @ @ @ @ @ interests .
They would have every reason to support trusted trader schemes and encourage EU-destined imports into the island of Ireland to divert from Belfast to Dublin .
Brexit barely figured in the southern election campaign .
If all goes well , Brexit could fade as a factor in the unity debate .
However an unknown quality is the feeling among some unionists that Boris Johnson “ betrayed us over the front stop .
He has dismembered the Union already and we might as well go in with Dublin.
” We have several @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is engaged , the Republic is not desperate to win at any price .
In polls and in government thinking , the peace process is paramount .
Dublin can envisage a return to the unity theme in several years time .
With a coherent plan for implementation in stages after unity , negotiations are much easier .
The Irish government can assume EU and American goodwill and a degree of British compliance .
Regular briefings as the plan evolves would take place within the British Irish intergovernmental conference and in ministerial meetings .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ be politically and economically generous .
There are lessons from the ongoing Brexit experience .
In the pre-referendums phase , the aim is to ensure no surprises .
The moral authority of a single referendum in each jurisdiction would be decisive .
The people have to know what they ’ re voting for .
All efforts should be concentrated upon it .
A second run of referendums on the modalities would mean fighting the first all over again .
If after several years , moves towards a unitary state were deemed necessary , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ within a united Ireland where it belongs .
There are two transitions , the first coming after unity verdicts .
The southern referendum would be a constitutional referendum following a unity result in the northern border poll .
The Dail would have legislated for its terms in advance of the referendums after years of national debate and intergovernmental discussions .
The Assembly would receive regular briefings from both governments but would not be in a position formally to negotiate because of a unionist veto .
As all sides would be fully informed of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the period for passing legislation and implementing the result should take months not years .
There would be an advantage in taking it on the run rather than dragging it out .
If a second transition to a unitary state was deemed necessary , it would take place several years later within the context of Irish unity .
Their side might win it with the respectable alternative .
A yes to unity verdict is not to be taken for granted .
With a choice of futures a boycott makes no sense .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Assembly in an updated GFA status quo but would need a margin of others to win it .
The one certain way to lose is to rely on mere negativity to win .
The centre ground will probably swing it .
Opponents of unity should adopt the positive alternative of a shared future and close collaboration with the south while retaining formal British sovereignty Once they agree to respect the result , the logic of a boycott falls away .
Peter Robinson ’ s injunction to respect the result implies taking part @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is unlikely .
The DUP might split and the Ulster Unionists would be likely to comply .
Unionists will want to hold the Assembly together to prove their essential case that they are the upholders of democratic legitimacy against the tradition of violent republican revolution .
Reluctantly they will acknowledge that this time the two governments have not acted behind their backs as in 1972 and 1985 .
Many unionists will in any case be proxy participants in parallel talks about unity or its alternative .
They may seek to persuade Dublin of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ civil groups have already held meetings with the taoiseach about forging closer relations without constitutional unity .
The dominant unionist instinct is statist .
They rebelled when they felt the Liberal government of 1910 broke the essential contract between the state and the citizen .
Despite many grumblings the contract has held since 1921 .
They can have no complaint if the same majoritarianism that sustained the unionist position for a century finally goes against them .
Their specific objections to unity with a priest ridden poverty stricken south unreconciled with Britain have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ their legitimate preference to remain in the UK by the principle of consent .
The border poll is the unionists ’ instrument too .
The fear of violence against a hard border was often seized on by ardent Remainers .
Just think what the response might be to the prospect of no border at all .
In some minds , Dublin ’ s assurances to protect the peace process will invite challenges to it .
The aim would be to frighten off soft support for unity .
But contemporary loyalism is divided between @ @ @ @ @ @ @ small gangland factions .
A loyalist agitator Jamie Bryson associated with the banned UVF is a voice of loyalist opposition to power sharing .
Political opposition is currently grouped around the traditional Orange Order .
This could coalesce into an escalating protest campaign but not enough to halt the momentum towards a border poll .
If somehow a faction was able to organise to plant bombs in the centre of Dublin as loyalists did in 1974 , universal condemnation and the determination to press ahead would prevail .
Photo by geralt is licensed @ @ @

Although Irish unity has been a common obsession for more a century we can only marvel at how little it has been considered as a realistic proposition. In the Republic Sinn Fein’s surge at the general election has promoted it to a higher but still uncertain place in an agenda preoccupied with economic reform. In the GFA, the issue was from the start insulated from what really mattered at the time, the winning of the peace and the effective operation of power sharing.
We do not know how two necessarily contingent and concurrent referendums north and south would be coordinated. Even more basically we have little idea of what the Republic has in mind as their offer of unity assuming they eventually make one, or whether a British government would chose to offer an opinion on the matter although they are legally obliged to support a unity verdict.
What we are close to knowing I believe is that opinion polls and surveys alone pored over in a Whitehall office by a British minister are unacceptable as the decisive criteria for calling a northern referendum and therefore triggering the whole process, south as well as north.
A united Ireland will not happen by elision. Belief in its inevitability is all very well, but strong incentives will be needed for a partly hostile and poorer north and assurances for an otherwise preoccupied south. Many in the south would oppose a stampede for unity which would allow the northern tail to wag the southern dog. The dimensions of unity reach far beyond the definitions of binary referendum questions.
So we have yet to set up the drawing board. Buoyed up by the huge surge of support in the Republic and whatever the pressures for economic reform, Sinn Fein will keep up the rhetorical pressure for unity. The government that is eventually formed will not allow Sinn Fein to turn their flank and will respond, but cautiously. Even Sinn Fein know that unity is not the magic bullet and will be broadly content to bide their time, believing that demographics and the run of events are on their side. As a first step, putting the establishment on notice to begin “preparing for unity” can be justified easily enough because almost nothing has been done.
The people can think for themselves, independent of party
In both jurisdictions and in very different ways, voters are no longer slaves to party orthodoxies. They have administered sharp rebukes to major parties. In the North nationalist voters joined unionists in giving Sinn Féin and the DUP a thrashing for three years of Stormont standoff. In the South a few weeks later, record numbers defied the main parties’ blackballing of Sinn Féin and rewarded them with the largest share of the vote. These results are striking evidence that voters in Ireland as elsewhere are choosing to vote with discrimination rather than along the old party lines, making the old sectarian predictions increasingly unreliable.
In the Republic Micheál Martin, Sinn Féin’s most persistent critic during the election is being pressed by elements in his party to share power with them. His record suggests be will not be stampeded into speeding up the pace. For within the moderate nationalist consensus, the emphasis is on reconciliation rather than absorption. Unionism is no longer a false consciousness. Unionist rights are accorded parity of esteem with nationalism. But revisionism has its limits. Sinn Féin will throw down the challenge: does unity then proceed at the unionists’ pace?
Referendum criteria
Both governments will wish to exercise some control over the complex process of complementary and mutually contingent referendums. They will wish to reduce the risk of a crisis border poll which could threaten stability and automatically drag in the Republic into a premature response. The means of doing so which are also the most democratically appropriate are threefold. One, a majority in favour of a border poll voting in a major election within a time frame should become the decisive criterion for calling the northern referendum. If the nationalist parties disagreed they could withdraw from the Assembly and trigger an election anyway.
Two, the constitutional future of Ireland should be considered as an open question based on the two actual choices, unity and an updated GFA. In both the Northern Ireland Assembly would continue. Three, while the trigger rests with the North, the main responsibility for the form and character of unity can only come from the Republic.
The Irish position
The referendum process we are contemplating is one based on a choice of futures in which generous terms and conditions for unity would be clear and ready for ratification by the people. The Irish want unity based on reconciliation and protecting the peace process. They will not move until they are confident of being able to make the best possible offer. In the final analysis they are prepared to lose the referendums and come back to unity at a later date. If necessary they would restrain northern nationalists from jumping the gun.
Calculating the cost of unity and assessing its affordability is by far the biggest challenge facing the Republic. The state needs to expand considerably to catch up with the dynamic expansion of the private sector which has inflated house prices to near unaffordable levels for the aspiring young. Dublin will not wish to press the unity agenda until they have devised an attractive offer. Crucially this will involve negotiations with the British government on continuing a version of the Northern Ireland subvention.
Before any date is fixed for the referendums they have a great deal to do to adjust the expectations of the electorate to the practical implications of unity. The UK government share that duty north of the border.
A choice of futures
The project should approach the future governance of Ireland as an open question. The referendums should offer a choice of constitutional futures. The survival of the Assembly should be the factor common to both. A simple yes or no fails to reflect the real choice, unwittingly accepts a nationalist narrative and jeopardises essential mainstream unionist participation.
The structure of unity
While it is entirely appropriate for academics to consider different forms of unity, fortunately one is oven ready. The continuation of a devolved Northern Ireland within a united Ireland is the obvious model for at least the initial period of unity.
In other words, one country, two systems, the transfer of the north’s sovereignty from the UK to Ireland, leaving the GFA institutions largely intact and introducing a West Lothian- type self denying ordinance on southern TDs against voting on northern devolved matters. This would be most readily understood by everybody. Most importantly it would give special recognition to unionists by guaranteeing them a role in government in a united Ireland. Assurances for the protection of British and unionist citizen rights would be written into the constitution. A debate should be held on whether the Assembly now part of Irish devolution, should be entrenched in the constitution and whether the UK government should act as guarantor of the rights of British citizens and unionists. The whole package should be wrapped before the referendums to avoid the political disaster of two referendums particularly in Northern Ireland. The settlement could be reviewed years later in a different climate. Approval by an all-Ireland referendum would be appropriate for moving to a unitary state.
The structure and internal character of a united Ireland
Amending the constitutional and legal framework could be the easy bit. More daunting is devising a national plan for harmonisation and integration that describes the character of the unified state. To start with this project should produce the latest estimate of the cost of unity. The subvention from the UK would continue for a negotiated period. The taxation system, pensions and welfare would be harmonised, northern currency would transfer to the euro and a choice made over time between the NHS and the Republic’s state health insurance system. An international Marshall investment Plan heavily supported by the EU would be devised and special incentives created for transferring multinationals to the border region. Some capital city features would be decanted to Belfast and Armagh and a great deal of energy would be expended on arguing over the display of British national symbols. The plan for unity would be implemented over years. In outline form it would be ready for the referendum voters.
The UK position
The British government cannot sit back and rely solely on pleading Irish self determination. They would give assurances required by present sovereignty that they retain legal and moral responsibility for the well being of all their citizens in Northern Ireland until or unless Irish unity is achieved.
Why should the British engage before a border poll?
As already explained, the first reason is to do all possible to maintain stability. In this they are at one with the Irish government. This approach would survive a transition from Conservative to Labour. The key to this is to persuade all sides to respect the result. The British government is legally obliged to implement a Northern vote in favour of Irish unity . Otherwise we are as ignorant of the British position as we are about the Irish. It’s essential to discover the approach of all parties at Westminster to the referendums
A Conservative government may wish to influence the result in the interests not only of NI but “the precious Union” as a whole; Labour might remain neutral or become persuaders for a good unity deal.
With so much transparent planning going on in Dublin it would unconscionable to be left out. This applies whichever UK party is in power. The GFA institution of the British-Irish Intergovernmental council is the natural forum of consultation on preparing for the referendums and the British -Irish aspects of the post- Brexit relationship. But there’s stick as well as carrot. By the term of the GFA, both governments have to be ready to legislate to enable a unity verdict to be implemented.
Opting for the status quo plus
The alternative to unity is a status quo that describes the ideal pattern of relationships between unionist and nationalist, north and south, the UK and the Republic. It guarantees rights and provides the machinery which naturally imposes collaboration in government on previously warring factions.
After each breakdown they have been forced to return. No version of a united Ireland as yet produced achieves that. Unity however dressed up in warm words, can only mean victory for nationalism and in republican minds, for the “armed struggle.”
Have the institutions of the Good Friday Agreement lived up to their promise? In one sense all too well. They have been weaponised by the Assembly parties with nationalists emphasising rights denied and unionists claiming violations of the principle of consent. The British-Irish relationship has survived the Brexit freeze to impose terms on the parties to restore the Assembly. Three years of stand-off ended with the vindication of the institutions. New responsibilities are in prospect to help safeguard bilateral British-Irish and north-south interests once a new relationship is forged between UK and the EU. Arguably the institutions are needed more than ever. Why change them?
It is a fact of life that although the term will be avoided, Northern Ireland will come increasingly under British- Irish joint authority. That the relationship has survived the Brexit freeze is a tribute to its resilience and its relevance to the post-Brexit relationship. It is also in Dublin’s interest to support efforts to minimise trade and regulatory frictions between GB and NI. The question occurs: is the Assembly system the gateway to a united Ireland or its alternative?
The project should examine the robustness of GFA institutions post-Brexit as the alternative to unity for the benefit of unionists and nationalists alike, taking in the proposed arrangements for Northern Ireland’s special status in the single market and the implications, political and economic, of “the border in the Irish Sea”.
Namely…..
The scope of the – arguably increasing – guarantor role of the Irish government in the GFA after Brexit. Is it fully accepted by the UK? Does the Irish government have a GFA veto on direct rule?
The unionist interpretation of the consent principle. Could “a constitutional principle of the first order” be invoked to require a weighted majority in a border poll, in conformity with cross community consent in the Assembly?
Is a special rights regime needed for Northern Ireland? How is the gap to be filled after the UK’s withdrawal from the Charter of Fundamental Rights?
The implications of the UK government’s hints about striking a different balance between the courts, and the government and parliament, changes to the Human Rights Act and future access to the ECtHR, affecting Northern Ireland.
Is the UK government’s determination to end “vexatious prosecutions” against serving and former soldiers compatible with justice for victims – also a burning topic with the Conservative right that could seriously split the Assembly?
In relation to Northern Ireland’s special status in the single market, how effective will be the joint committee’s consultation mechanism to consult Northern Ireland and the Assembly’s role in approving its continuation by simple majority?
How might a UK guarantor role for British citizens’ rights operate in a united Ireland?
What are the possible impacts of the emerging post Brexit settlement on the governance of the whole island and relations between the UK and Ireland?
The Brexit factor
The influence of Brexit as a push factor for unity may be exaggerated. Unionists are learning to grasp the essentials and de-dramatise the front stop. Election to Westminster secures the Union; all the rest is side salad. Northern Ireland is no stranger to all sorts of hiatus between the two islands and on the border. Few realise that work permits for Northern Ireland were required under the Safeguarding of Employment Act for GB as well as the south from the mid 1940s until finally abolished in the 1980s. The NI parties are as one in attempting to mitigate the effects of a border in the Irish Sea and threats to the alignment of standards from the British government’s wider ambitions for a free trade deal. Powerfully influenced by civil society, all parties are likely to continue common cause as advisers to the Northern Ireland protocol’s management committee. Despite their level playing field concerns, any Irish government will seek to defend the North’s real interests. They would have every reason to support trusted trader schemes and encourage EU-destined imports into the island of Ireland to divert from Belfast to Dublin. Brexit barely figured in the southern election campaign. If all goes well, Brexit could fade as a factor in the unity debate. However an unknown quality is the feeling among some unionists that Boris Johnson “betrayed us over the front stop. He has dismembered the Union already and we might as well go in with Dublin.”
The way ahead
We have several years’ grace. While its prestige is engaged, the Republic is not desperate to win at any price. In polls and in government thinking, the peace process is paramount. Dublin can envisage a return to the unity theme in several years time. With a coherent plan for implementation in stages after unity, negotiations are much easier. The Irish government can assume EU and American goodwill and a degree of British compliance. Regular briefings as the plan evolves would take place within the British Irish intergovernmental conference and in ministerial meetings. To succeed the plan will have to be politically and economically generous.
There are lessons from the ongoing Brexit experience. In the pre-referendums phase, the aim is to ensure no surprises.
The moral authority of a single referendum in each jurisdiction would be decisive. The people have to know what they’re voting for.
All efforts should be concentrated upon it. A second run of referendums on the modalities would mean fighting the first all over again. If after several years, moves towards a unitary state were deemed necessary, a second referendum would be required but within a united Ireland where it belongs.
Handling the transitions
There are two transitions, the first coming after unity verdicts. The southern referendum would be a constitutional referendum following a unity result in the northern border poll. The Dail would have legislated for its terms in advance of the referendums after years of national debate and intergovernmental discussions. The Assembly would receive regular briefings from both governments but would not be in a position formally to negotiate because of a unionist veto. As all sides would be fully informed of the consequences of the vote in advance, the period for passing legislation and implementing the result should take months not years. There would be an advantage in taking it on the run rather than dragging it out. If a second transition to a unitary state was deemed necessary, it would take place several years later within the context of Irish unity.
Would unionists boycott a border poll?
Their side might win it with the respectable alternative. A yes to unity verdict is not to be taken for granted. With a choice of futures a boycott makes no sense. They would campaign for the continuation of the Assembly in an updated GFA status quo but would need a margin of others to win it. The one certain way to lose is to rely on mere negativity to win. The centre ground will probably swing it. Opponents of unity should adopt the positive alternative of a shared future and close collaboration with the south while retaining formal British sovereignty
Once they agree to respect the result, the logic of a boycott falls away. Peter Robinson’s injunction to respect the result implies taking part in the vote. A complete boycott is unlikely. The DUP might split and the Ulster Unionists would be likely to comply.
Unionists will want to hold the Assembly together to prove their essential case that they are the upholders of democratic legitimacy against the tradition of violent republican revolution. Reluctantly they will acknowledge that this time the two governments have not acted behind their backs as in 1972 and 1985.
Many unionists will in any case be proxy participants in parallel talks about unity or its alternative. They may seek to persuade Dublin of the virtues of dual choice. Unionist civil groups have already held meetings with the taoiseach about forging closer relations without constitutional unity.
The dominant unionist instinct is statist. They rebelled when they felt the Liberal government of 1910 broke the essential contract between the state and the citizen. Despite many grumblings the contract has held since 1921. They can have no complaint if the same majoritarianism that sustained the unionist position for a century finally goes against them. Their specific objections to unity with a priest ridden poverty stricken south unreconciled with Britain have disappeared. They are thrown back on their legitimate preference to remain in the UK by the principle of consent. The border poll is the unionists’ instrument too.
A loyalist threat of violence
The fear of violence against a hard border was often seized on by ardent Remainers. Just think what the response might be to the prospect of no border at all. In some minds, Dublin’s assurances to protect the peace process will invite challenges to it. The aim would be to frighten off soft support for unity. But contemporary loyalism is divided between support for reconciliation that attracts funding and small gangland factions. A loyalist agitator Jamie Bryson associated with the banned UVF is a voice of loyalist opposition to power sharing. Political opposition is currently grouped around the traditional Orange Order. This could coalesce into an escalating protest campaign but not enough to halt the momentum towards a border poll. If somehow a faction was able to organise to plant bombs in the centre of Dublin as loyalists did in 1974, universal condemnation and the determination to press ahead would prevail.
Photo by geralt is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA


sluggerotoole--2020-03-09--#NIElectionSurvey shows how little we know about who we are and what it is we want

Well , we got some good value out of Liverpool University ’ s NI Election Survey over the weekend .
I chose not to cover it all in one go , because the point of a survey like this is that it goes deeper than any political poll can .
A well-produced survey will tell us a lot more about a lot more things than just how voters are likely to behave in any upcoming election ( which , to be fair , is generally a fixation of political journalists rather than of pollsters ) .
There are some searching @ @ @ @ @ @ @ generally becoming a bit clueless about what people actually think .
Pete Shirlow in an oped in today ’ s Belfast Telegraph notes a whole series of anomalies .
He sees a trend that has been growing for the last ten years : ie , the growth of the Alliance Party , something the mainstream commentariat has struggled to report proportionately with regard to this shift in public sentiment : In 2017 , 44.4 % of their voters wished to remain in the UK .
This now sits at 58.8 % , with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ reminder of Aesop ’ s Fables “ be careful what you wish for ” .
Naomi Long , who has sprung this electoral success , is not going to debate Irish unification , but instead , encourage her party to develop arguments that cover both the benefits of the Union and the potential of reunification .
As a party that is uniquely composed of significant shares of members and voters who see legitimacy within both constitutional positions , the capacity for an inclusive debate is there but will require political dexterity .
Such @ @ @ @ @ @ @ draw the constitutional debate into a new arena .
For Alliance , that debate will be evidence and issue-driven .
It will make or break them but if they do not lead such a binary conversation , that is reflective of society , it simply will not happen .
Even as nationalism has been much more adept at keeping their tribe together ( 90 % of SDLP supporters are religious and/or Catholic ) , unionists have divided between those happy to remain such or are becoming post-unionists .
The rigid social conservatism of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ( in a majority within the younger cohort ) of liberal Protestants ( and ‘ neither ’ ) to abandon unionism as a designation that has any real meaning for them .
Clearly with growing power comes growing responsibility .
But I read the future slightly differently from Pete .
Not least because Northern Irish separatism ( from the UK ) differs from its Scottish cousin in two key ways .
For us , it is not a simple matter of a single territory breaking free to find its own destiny in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ also it comes with the proposition of joining another state with different customs and traditions .
This new group is not so fanatical about the union that it wants to put it at the working centre of its own innate liberalism , but nor is it in the least paranoid or fearful of the prospects of joining with the Republic .
In this regard the DUP has been slow to recognise that the union no longer relies on the waving of flags , the lighting of bonfires or those who shout the loudest @ @ @ @ @ @ @ preferences to stay .
Including , if the survey is right , some ten percent of Sinn Fein voters ( the last three years have burnt another ten percent ) .
But that ’ s still a very much bigger space to play in than the maximised ( but falling ) nationalist vote .
There is a case for a united Ireland , but the populist ‘ demography is destiny ’ argument fails to account for these tolerant liberal dissenters who are , by and large , not interested in breaking up something @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that broken .
In addition , the shift to the centre is profound in a number of the survey ’ s measurements , not least the growth in the number of graduates now making sure it is their business to get out and vote .
People have had enough of the messing .
In the afterglow of Sinn Fein ’ s massive surge in the republic ’ s general election , it is easy to forget that they lost the Foyle seat by 17,000 votes just two months earlier in Northern Ireland .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ ?
I don ’ t have the answer because , I think this is what this survey shows , is that none of us has been particularly adept at asking the right questions of the right people .
Photo by Pixabay is licensed under CC0

Well, we got some good value out of Liverpool University’s NI Election Survey over the weekend. I chose not to cover it all in one go, because the point of a survey like this is that it goes deeper than any political poll can.
A well-produced survey will tell us a lot more about a lot more things than just how voters are likely to behave in any upcoming election (which, to be fair, is generally a fixation of political journalists rather than of pollsters).
There are some searching questions to ask about why we are generally becoming a bit clueless about what people actually think. Pete Shirlow in an oped in today’s Belfast Telegraph notes a whole series of anomalies.
He sees a trend that has been growing for the last ten years: ie, the growth of the Alliance Party, something the mainstream commentariat has struggled to report proportionately with regard to this shift in public sentiment:
In 2017, 44.4% of their voters wished to remain in the UK. This now sits at 58.8%, with 25.6% supporting Irish unity. A reminder of Aesop’s Fables “be careful what you wish for”. Naomi Long, who has sprung this electoral success, is not going to debate Irish unification, but instead, encourage her party to develop arguments that cover both the benefits of the Union and the potential of reunification. As a party that is uniquely composed of significant shares of members and voters who see legitimacy within both constitutional positions, the capacity for an inclusive debate is there but will require political dexterity. Such ingenuity would be real change and will draw the constitutional debate into a new arena. For Alliance, that debate will be evidence and issue-driven. It will make or break them but if they do not lead such a binary conversation, that is reflective of society, it simply will not happen.
Even as nationalism has been much more adept at keeping their tribe together (90% of SDLP supporters are religious and/or Catholic), unionists have divided between those happy to remain such or are becoming post-unionists.
The rigid social conservatism of the DUP has forced a substantial proportion (in a majority within the younger cohort) of liberal Protestants (and ‘neither’) to abandon unionism as a designation that has any real meaning for them.
Clearly with growing power comes growing responsibility. But I read the future slightly differently from Pete. Not least because Northern Irish separatism (from the UK) differs from its Scottish cousin in two key ways.
For us, it is not a simple matter of a single territory breaking free to find its own destiny in the world. It is that, but also it comes with the proposition of joining another state with different customs and traditions.
This new group is not so fanatical about the union that it wants to put it at the working centre of its own innate liberalism, but nor is it in the least paranoid or fearful of the prospects of joining with the Republic.
In this regard the DUP has been slow to recognise that the union no longer relies on the waving of flags, the lighting of bonfires or those who shout the loudest but upon those with the very lightest preferences to stay.
Including, if the survey is right, some ten percent of Sinn Fein voters (the last three years have burnt another ten percent). But that’s still a very much bigger space to play in than the maximised (but falling) nationalist vote.
There is a case for a united Ireland, but the populist ‘demography is destiny’ argument fails to account for these tolerant liberal dissenters who are, by and large, not interested in breaking up something that to them just isn’t that broken.
In addition, the shift to the centre is profound in a number of the survey’s measurements, not least the growth in the number of graduates now making sure it is their business to get out and vote. People have had enough of the messing.
In the afterglow of Sinn Fein’s massive surge in the republic’s general election, it is easy to forget that they lost the Foyle seat by 17,000 votes just two months earlier in Northern Ireland. How do we account for such conundrums?
I don’t have the answer because, I think this is what this survey shows, is that none of us has been particularly adept at asking the right questions of the right people.
Photo by Pixabay is licensed under CC0


sluggerotoole--2020-03-10--Covid 19 putting pressure on Dublin parties to get a new government together…

It ’ s been hard to read the whole post-election process of government formation in the south , but I think we can say with some certainty that the Covid 19 virus is suddenly pushing things onwards at a pace… This joint statement was released this evening : The Leaders of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael have held constructive discussions over the last two days about a series of policy issues and the current political situation .
They have decided that teams from the two parties should now commence in depth detailed talks .
Both Parties will also continue discussions @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are acutely aware of the enormous challenges facing the country particularly with the onset of COVID 19 .
They enter the talks as equal partners determined to develop proposals which will serve the interests of the people of Ireland With the St Patrick ’ s Day jolly to the White House gone , and the number of those infected on the island hitting fifty , minds are being finally being concentrated .
I don ’ t know where John Drennan is getting his briefings , but it looks like someone in FF is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to deal or get left out… Both the Denis Naughten-led Regional Independent Group of nine TDs and the Michael Fitzmaurice/Marian Harkin-led Independent rural group of six have indicated a willingness to cut a deal for government .
One senior Fianna Fáil source said : ‘ Technically on these figures , the Greens are the best option , but they are talking us to death .
They are treating government formation like some policy seminar or thirdlevel thesis .
At the pace we are going we won ’ t be finished until the autumn @ @ @ @ @ @ @ : ‘ The public mood is changing .
The voters are not going to tolerate us wandering around the Dáil for months having seminars or break-out meetings whilst a virus is rampaging through the country and the economy ’ .
It is , they said , ‘ a case of get real or get out ’ , adding : ‘ It ’ s time to end the amateur-hour stuff and put a government together .
’

It’s been hard to read the whole post-election process of government formation in the south, but I think we can say with some certainty that the Covid 19 virus is suddenly pushing things onwards at a pace… This joint statement was released this evening:
The Leaders of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael have held constructive discussions over the last two days about a series of policy issues and the current political situation. They have decided that teams from the two parties should now commence in depth detailed talks. Both Parties will also continue discussions with the Green Party. Both Leaders are acutely aware of the enormous challenges facing the country particularly with the onset of COVID 19. They enter the talks as equal partners determined to develop proposals which will serve the interests of the people of Ireland
With the St Patrick’s Day jolly to the White House gone, and the number of those infected on the island hitting fifty, minds are being finally being concentrated.
I don’t know where John Drennan is getting his briefings, but it looks like someone in FF is trying to put pressure on the Greens to deal or get left out…
Both the Denis Naughten-led Regional Independent Group of nine TDs and the Michael Fitzmaurice/Marian Harkin-led Independent rural group of six have indicated a willingness to cut a deal for government. One senior Fianna Fáil source said: ‘Technically on these figures, the Greens are the best option, but they are talking us to death. They are treating government formation like some policy seminar or thirdlevel thesis. At the pace we are going we won’t be finished until the autumn’. …senior Fianna Fáil sources warned: ‘The public mood is changing. The voters are not going to tolerate us wandering around the Dáil for months having seminars or break-out meetings whilst a virus is rampaging through the country and the economy’. It is, they said, ‘a case of get real or get out’, adding: ‘It’s time to end the amateur-hour stuff and put a government together.’
Hmmm…


sluggerotoole--2020-03-10--Robin Swann: NI moves to daily reporting of the #Covid19 case numbers…

One of the key advantages we have over China and Italy is the forewarning we have on the speed of the spread and the scale of the crisis .
NI Health Minister , Robin Swann speaking to the Assembly today , has outlined what arrangements his department is making… …the Department will be moving to daily reporting of cases , as currently happens in England .
The intention will be to release the figures each afternoon .
As I have outlined previously , the increase in positive cases is not unexpected and I would advise members of the public not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
We remain focused on the containment phase at this point , which is aimed at preventing the disease from taking hold in the UK .
We have been clear that we will communicate any move to the delay phase , but I would remind Members that this will not be a sharp transition and we will continue with many of the current actions in the containment phase .
The First Minister & Deputy First Minister and I have been in discussion with our counterparts across the UK at a COBR Ministerial meeting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ which will guide us in our steps : to flattening the peak of the outbreak in the UK ; to delay and spread the impact on our health service ; to push the peak away from this time of year and to protect those most at risk .
Members will also be aware of the rise in cases in the Republic of Ireland which currently stand at 21 , including two cases of community transmission ’ .
Urgent contact-tracing for the latest cases is now underway .
There are no known implications for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ relevant Public Health bodies remain in close contact .
Extensive work has been undertaken to ensure all Trusts have Covid-19 PODS in place which will enable patients suspected of having Covid-19 to be assessed and treated away from routine hospital work .
We continue to review the best use of testing and current clinical pathways so that individuals receive the appropriate care recognising that many patients will have a mild illness .
My Department has established a new Directorate which is dedicated to surge planning .
At operational level a Regional Surge Planning @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and the HSCB to ensure that there is an appropriate and proportionate level of HSC preparedness across the sector in response to Covid-19 .
Twice-weekly meetings are held and a Covid-19 Surge Planning workshop was held on 5 March .
The purpose of the workshop was to consider Trust surge plans and self-assessment checklists in order to share actions and ensure regional consistency where possible .

One of the key advantages we have over China and Italy is the forewarning we have on the speed of the spread and the scale of the crisis. NI Health Minister, Robin Swann speaking to the Assembly today, has outlined what arrangements his department is making…
…the Department will be moving to daily reporting of cases, as currently happens in England. The intention will be to release the figures each afternoon. As I have outlined previously, the increase in positive cases is not unexpected and I would advise members of the public not to be unduly alarmed by these developments.
We remain focused on the containment phase at this point, which is aimed at preventing the disease from taking hold in the UK. We have been clear that we will communicate any move to the delay phase, but I would remind Members that this will not be a sharp transition and we will continue with many of the current actions in the containment phase.
The First Minister & Deputy First Minister and I have been in discussion with our counterparts across the UK at a COBR Ministerial meeting this morning to consider the scientific evidence which will guide us in our steps: to flattening the peak of the outbreak in the UK; to delay and spread the impact on our health service; to push the peak away from this time of year and to protect those most at risk.
Members will also be aware of the rise in cases in the Republic of Ireland which currently stand at 21, including two cases of community transmission’. Urgent contact-tracing for the latest cases is now underway. There are no known implications for Northern Ireland at this stage and the relevant Public Health bodies remain in close contact.
Extensive work has been undertaken to ensure all Trusts have Covid-19 PODS in place which will enable patients suspected of having Covid-19 to be assessed and treated away from routine hospital work. We continue to review the best use of testing and current clinical pathways so that individuals receive the appropriate care recognising that many patients will have a mild illness.
My Department has established a new Directorate which is dedicated to surge planning. At operational level a Regional Surge Planning Sub-group has been established by the PHA and the HSCB to ensure that there is an appropriate and proportionate level of HSC preparedness across the sector in response to Covid-19.
Twice-weekly meetings are held and a Covid-19 Surge Planning workshop was held on 5 March. The purpose of the workshop was to consider Trust surge plans and self-assessment checklists in order to share actions and ensure regional consistency where possible.


sluggerotoole--2020-03-12--Why the Coronavirus could prove catastrophic for freelancers… and everyone else.

As a union official , I help to represent about 15,000 freelancers working in film and TV throughout Britain and Northern Ireland .
It ’ s an unusual job .
Generally , freelancers aren ’ t renowned for being organised by unions .
However , in our case , we have managed to press the employers to accept industry agreements covering Major Motion Pictures , TV Dramas and a range of other production roles .
We ’ ve been growing rapidly over the past five years or so .
However , my phone has stopped ringing about all of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with , and there ’ s only one thing on our members ’ minds at the moment : The coronavirus .
I ’ d like to illustrate why they ’ re worried with a general picture of how freelancers often work ( not just the ones I represent , but ones who perform the kind of consultancy roles that I used to perform myself before I started work for the union ) .
What I am describing here are the freelancers who do ‘ consultancy ’ -type work , as opposed to ‘ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ self-employment : A lot of freelancers set their daily rate on the understanding that they will only do ( for example ) 100 days of paid work per year .
Some will have higher expectations , and some lower ones – but let ’ s use a round number as an example .
To get these 100 days , they will do plenty of unpaid training , mastering their equipment , networking , self-marketing , pitching for work and in unpaid periods of discussion and prep for potential work that hasn ’ t @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be the people who write the blog posts , speak on industry panels , write articles for industry journals , etc .
These are the entrepreneurial lifeblood of the British economy , doing a lot of the thinking and innovation in the industries that they work in .
They ’ re the go-getters .
They also often own equipment that they have to buy and maintain , and when you hire them , they bring that equipment .
This is a very common feature of the freelance economy .
Like everybody else , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ look after their own families .
Using the example I ’ ve given , if that freelancer wanted to plan around earning £25,000 a year , they would have to set their day rate at £250 a day .
They also have to make sure that each of their customers rents their equipment off them on each of those days at rate to cover an average of 1/100th of the annual cost of buying / licensing / maintaining / depreciation / consumables ( i.e batteries , etc ) .
On a really good @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Yay !
They get a decent holiday that year .
Maybe buy themselves something nice ?
On a bad year , they only get 90 days work and quite a bit of belt-tightening has to happen .
It ’ s a risky business and freelancers are used to taking risks so that other don ’ t have to .
Now put yourself in the shoes of that freelancer .
You ’ ve bought the equipment .
You ’ ve written the blog posts , done the networking , done all of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and you ’ ve won !
A six week job !
6 x 5 x £250 = £7.5k .
Yay !
Remember , doing a good job this time , and making new connections , is vital to the task of getting the next one .
Then , imagine – just as you ’ re about to start work – somebody in your house becomes infected with a Coronavirus .
The advice is that you should self-isolate .
If you can ’ t do those first two weeks of that new project , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ else who will .
And they ’ re not going to get you back on board once you ’ re ready .
They ’ ll carry on with the replacement won ’ t they ?
Most of the freelancers that I know live their lives in public .
They have to if they want to work .
I know that in most cases freelancers are going to do the right thing .
They will self isolate .
They will lose that work .
They will lose those kit-hire fees too .
Because of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ll lose a lot more than £7.5k in the long run .
From a public health perspective , there ’ s another problem : Some of those freelancers won ’ t self-isolate .
They may decide to keep quiet .
And then you get further down the earnings tree , onto those delivery drivers who are effectively earning less than the minimum wage with no real safety-net .
The gig economy is large and growing .
There ’ s a lot of insecurity out there , and for those people , this choice @ @ @ @ @ @ @ still .
Option A is destitution .
Option B is keeping quiet about it and doing a job… .
that involves door-to-door deliveries to dozens of homes a day !
This is what a high risk , low safety net economy looks like resilience-wise .
Once all of this is over , our economies are going to need a new deal for people who work in the many precarious sectors of the economy .
This includes the low-wage gig economy people and the more professional freelancers .
Because today they ’ re all @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s not very stable one , and when it gets turned over , the waves are going to soak everyone .
Paul Evans is an Assistant National Secretary with BECTU , a sector of Prospect .
He is also an occasional contributor to Slugger O ’ Toole .
Photo by geralt is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA

As a union official, I help to represent about 15,000 freelancers working in film and TV throughout Britain and Northern Ireland. It’s an unusual job. Generally, freelancers aren’t renowned for being organised by unions.
However, in our case, we have managed to press the employers to accept industry agreements covering Major Motion Pictures, TV Dramas and a range of other production roles. We’ve been growing rapidly over the past five years or so.
However, my phone has stopped ringing about all of the usual issues that I have to deal with, and there’s only one thing on our members’ minds at the moment: The coronavirus.
I’d like to illustrate why they’re worried with a general picture of how freelancers often work (not just the ones I represent, but ones who perform the kind of consultancy roles that I used to perform myself before I started work for the union).
What I am describing here are the freelancers who do ‘consultancy’-type work, as opposed to ‘gig economy’ people forced into false self-employment:
A lot of freelancers set their daily rate on the understanding that they will only do (for example) 100 days of paid work per year. Some will have higher expectations, and some lower ones – but let’s use a round number as an example.
To get these 100 days, they will do plenty of unpaid training, mastering their equipment, networking, self-marketing, pitching for work and in unpaid periods of discussion and prep for potential work that hasn’t been confirmed yet.
They will often be the people who write the blog posts, speak on industry panels, write articles for industry journals, etc. These are the entrepreneurial lifeblood of the British economy, doing a lot of the thinking and innovation in the industries that they work in.
They’re the go-getters. They also often own equipment that they have to buy and maintain, and when you hire them, they bring that equipment. This is a very common feature of the freelance economy.
Like everybody else, freelancers have to plan their lives and look after their own families. Using the example I’ve given, if that freelancer wanted to plan around earning £25,000 a year, they would have to set their day rate at £250 a day.
They also have to make sure that each of their customers rents their equipment off them on each of those days at rate to cover an average of 1/100th of the annual cost of buying / licensing / maintaining / depreciation / consumables (i.e batteries, etc).
On a really good year that freelancer wins 110 days work. Yay! They get a decent holiday that year. Maybe buy themselves something nice?
On a bad year, they only get 90 days work and quite a bit of belt-tightening has to happen. It’s a risky business and freelancers are used to taking risks so that other don’t have to.
Now put yourself in the shoes of that freelancer. You’ve bought the equipment. You’ve written the blog posts, done the networking, done all of the unpaid pre-planning, you’ve pitched… and you’ve won! A six week job! 6 x 5 x £250 = £7.5k. Yay!
Remember, doing a good job this time, and making new connections, is vital to the task of getting the next one.
Then, imagine – just as you’re about to start work – somebody in your house becomes infected with a Coronavirus. The advice is that you should self-isolate.
If you can’t do those first two weeks of that new project, they’ll have to find someone else who will. And they’re not going to get you back on board once you’re ready. They’ll carry on with the replacement won’t they?
Most of the freelancers that I know live their lives in public. They have to if they want to work. I know that in most cases freelancers are going to do the right thing.
They will self isolate. They will lose that work. They will lose those kit-hire fees too. Because of the way things work, they’ll lose a lot more than £7.5k in the long run.
From a public health perspective, there’s another problem: Some of those freelancers won’t self-isolate. They may decide to keep quiet.
And then you get further down the earnings tree, onto those delivery drivers who are effectively earning less than the minimum wage with no real safety-net. The gig economy is large and growing. There’s a lot of insecurity out there, and for those people, this choice is going to get harder and harder still.
Option A is destitution.
Option B is keeping quiet about it and doing a job…. that involves door-to-door deliveries to dozens of homes a day!
This is what a high risk, low safety net economy looks like resilience-wise. Once all of this is over, our economies are going to need a new deal for people who work in the many precarious sectors of the economy. This includes the low-wage gig economy people and the more professional freelancers.
Because today they’re all in the same boat. It’s not very stable one, and when it gets turned over, the waves are going to soak everyone.
Paul Evans is an Assistant National Secretary with BECTU, a sector of Prospect. He is also an occasional contributor to Slugger O’Toole.
Photo by geralt is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA


sluggerotoole--2020-03-12--Boris Johnson: UK’s #Covid19 policy to delay spread and protect the vulnerable…

Boris Johnson ’ s press conference outlining the UK government ’ s policy for handling the virus has just finished .
It ’ s liberal compared to the measures announced by the Republic to reserve focus and patience within the population to the end of the cycle .
The first aim is to push down the curve of infections and push through until the summer when the NHS is under less pressure and people with respiratory difficulties experience fewer problems to protect the elderly and the sick during the period of peak transmission .
The logic in not closing schools @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by the UK ’ s complex epidemiological modeling systems of infection levels , in reality , they think it is approximately around 10k at the moment across the UK .
Washing hands is important .
But they are pushing a defensive strategy , by asking people with minor symptoms to stay at home for 7 days , after which most people are no longer infectious .
If symptoms deteriorate , only then call to contact the health service .
Moving from having testing in geographical areas or people who have traveled from elsewhere @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and severity will be the only deciding factor on whether people get tested or not .
Give it is early in the course of the disease , the government does not recommend that older people go into social isolation yet .
That point will come but later in the disease ’ s phases .
Not shutting down sporting events yet , but will consider localized effects .
When asked in the Q & A about what the extent of the penetration of the whole UK population would be , the answer was about @ @ @ @ @ @ @ likely to happen over an estimated 14 weeks run of the peak of the disease .
In other words , getting the disease is not the problem , since most of us are likely to get it .
Flattening the peak is critical and protecting the weak and the most vulnerable at least until summer .
He finished with “ don ’ t forget to wash your hands and we will get through this ” .
Adds : here ’ s a useful guide for families from the US Goverment ’ s CDC @

Boris Johnson’s press conference outlining the UK government’s policy for handling the virus has just finished. It’s liberal compared to the measures announced by the Republic to reserve focus and patience within the population to the end of the cycle.
The first aim is to push down the curve of infections and push through until the summer when the NHS is under less pressure and people with respiratory difficulties experience fewer problems to protect the elderly and the sick during the period of peak transmission.
The logic in not closing schools is the relatively small numbers as calculated by the UK’s complex epidemiological modeling systems of infection levels, in reality, they think it is approximately around 10k at the moment across the UK.
Washing hands is important. But they are pushing a defensive strategy, by asking people with minor symptoms to stay at home for 7 days, after which most people are no longer infectious. If symptoms deteriorate, only then call to contact the health service.
Moving from having testing in geographical areas or people who have traveled from elsewhere to testing in hospital, where symptoms and severity will be the only deciding factor on whether people get tested or not.
Give it is early in the course of the disease, the government does not recommend that older people go into social isolation yet. That point will come but later in the disease’s phases. Not shutting down sporting events yet, but will consider localized effects.
When asked in the Q&A about what the extent of the penetration of the whole UK population would be, the answer was about 80%, although that’s likely to happen over an estimated 14 weeks run of the peak of the disease.
In other words, getting the disease is not the problem, since most of us are likely to get it. Flattening the peak is critical and protecting the weak and the most vulnerable at least until summer.
He finished with “don’t forget to wash your hands and we will get through this”.
Adds: here’s a useful guide for families from the US Goverment’s CDC.


sluggerotoole--2020-03-12--Ireland’s caretaker government finally moves on Covid 19…

With the Dublin government finally moving on Covid 19 , as Brian notes , expect a similar ramping up of the precautions in Northern Ireland fairly soon .
It should be said that the UK is thought to have fairly robust epidemic modeling for such an eventuality .
Whatever happens , we need to accept that we are all in a very weird place right now And we ’ re all pretty much in the very same boat .
We can not stop it , but it ’ s a case of trying to do what we can to protect @ @ @ @ @ @ @ burden on the NHS/HSE .
Multiplying infections are a feature of our new reality , not a bug .
It is simply not practicable to do what tiny , quasi authoritarian city-states like Hong Kong or Singapore can do , nor perhaps entirely advisable .
Social resilience is going to be the key .
We may have to pull new procedures almost from nowhere based on whatever actionable insight we can gain from the experiences of other countries with an excruciatingly speedy turnaround and implementation programme .
How to get the elephant to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ clear steer from the governments on the optimum way of handling the virus itself ( it will have its own natural point where it finds it harder to increase as it exhausts new possible pathways and immunity amongst the population spreads ) .
And , if I may say so , this is not a time for cheap politics .
Sure Government has a burden to lead , but for most of the rest of us , we will have to unlearn the habits of a lifetime .
Including resisting making political capital @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Republic , as the irish Times notes , the following will close : – Schools , crèches , childcare facilities and all higher level education facilities to close .
– Indoor gatherings of more than 100 people should be cancelled .
– Outdoor gatherings of more than 500 people should be cancelled .
– People should continue to go to work , but those who can work from home should do so .

With the Dublin government finally moving on Covid 19, as Brian notes, expect a similar ramping up of the precautions in Northern Ireland fairly soon. It should be said that the UK is thought to have fairly robust epidemic modeling for such an eventuality.
Whatever happens, we need to accept that we are all in a very weird place right now And we’re all pretty much in the very same boat. We cannot stop it, but it’s a case of trying to do what we can to protect the most vulnerable. And delay the burden on the NHS/HSE.
Multiplying infections are a feature of our new reality, not a bug. It is simply not practicable to do what tiny, quasi authoritarian city-states like Hong Kong or Singapore can do, nor perhaps entirely advisable. Social resilience is going to be the key.
We may have to pull new procedures almost from nowhere based on whatever actionable insight we can gain from the experiences of other countries with an excruciatingly speedy turnaround and implementation programme. How to get the elephant to dance?
There needs to be a clear steer from the governments on the optimum way of handling the virus itself (it will have its own natural point where it finds it harder to increase as it exhausts new possible pathways and immunity amongst the population spreads).
And, if I may say so, this is not a time for cheap politics. Sure Government has a burden to lead, but for most of the rest of us, we will have to unlearn the habits of a lifetime. Including resisting making political capital out of a global pandemic.
In the Republic, as the irish Times notes, the following will close:
– Schools, crèches, childcare facilities and all higher level education facilities to close. – Cultural institutions to close. – Indoor gatherings of more than 100 people should be cancelled. – Outdoor gatherings of more than 500 people should be cancelled. – People should continue to go to work, but those who can work from home should do so. – Shops, cafes and restaurants to stay open.


sluggerotoole--2020-03-12--How poor handwashing is increasing the spread of Coronavirus…

Aaron Lawson is Environmental Health Researcher and Teaching Fellow at Ulster University .
You can follow him on Twitter .
Handwashing is one of the most important factors in preventing the spread of Coronavirus ( COVID-19 ) and other diseases .
The Coronavirus ( COVID-19 ) outbreak which originated in Wuhan , China has now spread to more than 40 countries , and infected more than 80,000 people worldwide .
It has also caused a number of deaths , mainly amongst those living and working at the centre of the outbreak , but also amongst the most vulnerable people in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ children and those with weak immune systems .
This impending pandemic has increased people ’ s fear over travel and coming into contact with anyone who may be infected .
Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus , Head of the World Health Organization has stated that the fight against Coronavirus is now at a “ decisive point ” , urging countries to take action to help stop the further spread of the deadly virus .
At an individual level , people have rushed out to buy facemasks , bleach and hand sanitiser in an effort @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
While these items help in preventing catching and spreading the disease , it is vitally important that the current Public Health messages of “ Catch it , bin it , kill it ” and “ Wash Your Hands ” are prioritised .
Experts agree that handwashing is the most effective method in preventing the spread of infectious diseases such as Coronavirus .
However , while the current message of handwashing is being encouraged by various public health bodies , there is little information on how people should be washing their hands in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the past five years , I have researched the general public ’ s handwashing habits and found them to be wholly inadequate .
I specifically looked at people ’ s handwashing habits when using public toilets and found two main issues .
Firstly , there is a proportion of the general public who do not wash or dry their hands at all after using the toilet .
Secondly , most people who do wash their hands , fail to do so adequately .
This handwashing behaviour was categorised into four areas ; adequate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and non-handwashing .
The adequate method for handwashing was defined based upon previous research and relevant World Health Organization guidance .
It includes applying water and soap to the hands , and then spending at least 20 seconds or more scrubbing hands thoroughly while making sure to cover all surfaces and crevices to remove any germs .
This is followed by rinsing off any excess soapy water and then drying the hands thoroughly using either a hand dryer , paper towel or cloth towel .
Basic handwashing refers to washing hands using water @ @ @ @ @ @ @ using either a hand dryer , paper towel or cloth towel , but not spending the correct length of time doing so .
Poor handwashing refers to either washing hands with only water , or not drying hands using an appropriate drying method ( for example using clothes or toilet paper ) , or both .
Finally , Non-handwashing refers to not washing and drying hands at all .
Using these categories of handwashing , I was able to determine the general public ’ s handwashing habits by observing two sets of public @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
My research revealed that out of a total of 1,149 members of the general public who were observed , just 91 ( 7.92 % ) washed their hands adequately .
Around 607 ( 52.83 % ) practiced basic hand hygiene , and 189 ( 16.45 % ) washed their hands poorly .
About 262 ( 22.80 % ) members of the general public did not wash their hands at all after using the public toilet .
The reasons for why most people do not wash their hands properly is complex .
There @ @ @ @ @ @ @ habits are mostly inherent in nature , as in it develops as a habitual behaviour at an early age and becomes ingrained .
This means that many people can go through life completely unaware that they may be practicing handwashing inadequately because they do not know any different and no one has ever corrected them .
Inadequate handwashing habits may also be because most people are unaware that most infectious diseases like Coronavirus ( COVID-19 ) are primally spread via hands and therefore they do not link handwashing as being important in preventing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ only very few members of the general public wash their hands adequately is a significant factor in why many preventable , infectious diseases like Coronavirus ( COVID-19 ) have been easily transmitted from person-to-person and subsequently spread to a number of countries .
Therefore , the current Public Health message of “ Wash Your Hands ” needs reinforced by “ Here ’ s How You Should Wash Your Hands ” as it is so important that the general public are equipped with the correct knowledge to wash their hands adequately .
If everyone @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ability of diseases like Coronavirus ( COVID-19 ) to spread so easily would be minimised to a greater extent than at present .
This would ultimately save lives .
Photo by Burst is licensed under CC0

Aaron Lawson is Environmental Health Researcher and Teaching Fellow at Ulster University. You can follow him on Twitter.
Handwashing is one of the most important factors in preventing the spread of Coronavirus (COVID-19) and other diseases.
The Coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak which originated in Wuhan, China has now spread to more than 40 countries, and infected more than 80,000 people worldwide. It has also caused a number of deaths, mainly amongst those living and working at the centre of the outbreak, but also amongst the most vulnerable people in society such as elderly people, young children and those with weak immune systems.
This impending pandemic has increased people’s fear over travel and coming into contact with anyone who may be infected. Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, Head of the World Health Organization has stated that the fight against Coronavirus is now at a “decisive point”, urging countries to take action to help stop the further spread of the deadly virus.
At an individual level, people have rushed out to buy facemasks, bleach and hand sanitiser in an effort to stop themselves from catching the virus. While these items help in preventing catching and spreading the disease, it is vitally important that the current Public Health messages of “Catch it, bin it, kill it” and “Wash Your Hands” are prioritised.
Experts agree that handwashing is the most effective method in preventing the spread of infectious diseases such as Coronavirus. However, while the current message of handwashing is being encouraged by various public health bodies, there is little information on how people should be washing their hands in response to this disease outbreak.
Over the past five years, I have researched the general public’s handwashing habits and found them to be wholly inadequate. I specifically looked at people’s handwashing habits when using public toilets and found two main issues. Firstly, there is a proportion of the general public who do not wash or dry their hands at all after using the toilet. Secondly, most people who do wash their hands, fail to do so adequately.
This handwashing behaviour was categorised into four areas; adequate handwashing, basic handwashing, poor handwashing and non-handwashing.
The adequate method for handwashing was defined based upon previous research and relevant World Health Organization guidance. It includes applying water and soap to the hands, and then spending at least 20 seconds or more scrubbing hands thoroughly while making sure to cover all surfaces and crevices to remove any germs. This is followed by rinsing off any excess soapy water and then drying the hands thoroughly using either a hand dryer, paper towel or cloth towel.
Basic handwashing refers to washing hands using water and soap, and then drying afterwards using either a hand dryer, paper towel or cloth towel, but not spending the correct length of time doing so.
Poor handwashing refers to either washing hands with only water, or not drying hands using an appropriate drying method (for example using clothes or toilet paper), or both.
Finally, Non-handwashing refers to not washing and drying hands at all.
Using these categories of handwashing, I was able to determine the general public’s handwashing habits by observing two sets of public toilets using thermal-imaging cameras for sixty days.
Image: Thermal observation of public toilets.
My research revealed that out of a total of 1,149 members of the general public who were observed, just 91 (7.92%) washed their hands adequately. Around 607 (52.83%) practiced basic hand hygiene, and 189 (16.45%) washed their hands poorly. About 262 (22.80%) members of the general public did not wash their hands at all after using the public toilet.
The reasons for why most people do not wash their hands properly is complex. There is research that suggests that our handwashing habits are mostly inherent in nature, as in it develops as a habitual behaviour at an early age and becomes ingrained. This means that many people can go through life completely unaware that they may be practicing handwashing inadequately because they do not know any different and no one has ever corrected them. Inadequate handwashing habits may also be because most people are unaware that most infectious diseases like Coronavirus (COVID-19) are primally spread via hands and therefore they do not link handwashing as being important in preventing it.
The fact that currently, only very few members of the general public wash their hands adequately is a significant factor in why many preventable, infectious diseases like Coronavirus (COVID-19) have been easily transmitted from person-to-person and subsequently spread to a number of countries. Therefore, the current Public Health message of “Wash Your Hands” needs reinforced by “Here’s How You Should Wash Your Hands” as it is so important that the general public are equipped with the correct knowledge to wash their hands adequately.
If everyone was to do this, then the ability of diseases like Coronavirus (COVID-19) to spread so easily would be minimised to a greater extent than at present. This would ultimately save lives.
Photo by Burst is licensed under CC0


sluggerotoole--2020-03-12--Ireland to ‘shut down’ from 6pm tonight to reduce the spread of Covid-19. Will Northern Ireland foll

Ireland to ‘shut down’ from 6pm tonight to reduce the spread of Covid-19. Will Northern Ireland follow?

RTÉ News reports on Taoiseach Leo Varadkar pulling out all the stops to halt the spread of Covid-19 Taoiseach Leo Varadkar has said the country ’ s schools , colleges and childcare facilities are to close in response to the Covid-19 pandemic .
From 6pm today , schools , colleges and childcare facilities will close .
In relation to cultural institutions , indoor gatherings of more than 100 people will not be permitted and a maximum outdoor gathering of 500 people will be allowed .
The restrictions will stay in place until 29 March .
Where it is possible to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ he said , adding that we need the public and businesses to take a sensible approach to coronavirus .
Mr Varadkar made the announcement in Washington DC where he is visiting as part of the St Patrick ’ s Day celebrations , much of which have been cancelled in light of coronavirus .
You would like to think us being an island and all they are keeping Stormont in the loop .
This is the one time we really need our local politicians not to dither .
Dr Claire Donnelly Infectious diseases specialist @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this to say on the latest WHO Statement : This is a very powerful speech from the WHO Director general .
It is clear that no healthcare system in the world could manage a massive surge of Covid 19 .
This can only be managed by actions in the community to reduce infections and flatten the epidemic curve .
We all have to protect our hospitals so they can continue to look after people with coronavirus and other emergencies .
For most people this infection is mild , but for some it is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ disease , they will be fine , but they need to stop infecting as many other people as possible .
This will allow the health service to manage the minority who need treatment in a hospital .
We need to protect our-selves our families and our communities .
Handwashing is important to reduce infection , but this is also a respiratory infection where droplets are inhaled from close contact with people who have an infection .
Masks have no benefit in the community , but social distancing will reduce the risk of transmission @ @ @ @ @ @ @ efforts to finding cases and isolating people .
People who are worried about their businesses and the economy have legitimate concerns .
However , the impact of inaction would be greater to the economy .
There is a small window of time to contain this very infectious virus and prevent a surge in cases .
This statement from the WHO gives guidance to what is required .
A lot of schools are off next Monday and Tuesday for the St Patricks Day , maybe we need to play it safe and just keep @ @ @ @ @ @ @ keep calm and make some plans for working for home , minding the kids if they are off school etc .
Do not panic buy , but do be enough extra food to cover you if you are housebound for a week or two .
Be aware of rumours and fake information on social media .
Stick to the official advice .
UK Gov Advice site | Irish Government Advice site .
Stay safe .
Wash your hands .
And try not to freak the feck out .

RTÉ News reports on Taoiseach Leo Varadkar pulling out all the stops to halt the spread of Covid-19
Taoiseach Leo Varadkar has said the country’s schools, colleges and childcare facilities are to close in response to the Covid-19 pandemic. From 6pm today, schools, colleges and childcare facilities will close. In relation to cultural institutions, indoor gatherings of more than 100 people will not be permitted and a maximum outdoor gathering of 500 people will be allowed. The restrictions will stay in place until 29 March. Where it is possible to work remotely people should do so, he said, adding that we need the public and businesses to take a sensible approach to coronavirus. Mr Varadkar made the announcement in Washington DC where he is visiting as part of the St Patrick’s Day celebrations, much of which have been cancelled in light of coronavirus.
You would like to think us being an island and all they are keeping Stormont in the loop. This is the one time we really need our local politicians not to dither.
Dr Claire Donnelly Infectious diseases specialist with expertise in infectious diseases epidemiology had this to say on the latest WHO Statement:
This is a very powerful speech from the WHO Director general. It is clear that no healthcare system in the world could manage a massive surge of Covid 19. This can only be managed by actions in the community to reduce infections and flatten the epidemic curve. We all have to protect our hospitals so they can continue to look after people with coronavirus and other emergencies. For most people this infection is mild, but for some it is not. For people who have mild disease, they will be fine, but they need to stop infecting as many other people as possible. This will allow the health service to manage the minority who need treatment in a hospital. We need to protect our-selves our families and our communities. Handwashing is important to reduce infection, but this is also a respiratory infection where droplets are inhaled from close contact with people who have an infection. Masks have no benefit in the community, but social distancing will reduce the risk of transmission. We will have to devote large efforts to finding cases and isolating people. People who are worried about their businesses and the economy have legitimate concerns. However, the impact of inaction would be greater to the economy. There is a small window of time to contain this very infectious virus and prevent a surge in cases. This statement from the WHO gives guidance to what is required.
A lot of schools are off next Monday and Tuesday for the St Patricks Day, maybe we need to play it safe and just keep all schools closed? Whatever happens, keep calm and make some plans for working for home, minding the kids if they are off school etc. Do not panic buy, but do be enough extra food to cover you if you are housebound for a week or two.
Be aware of rumours and fake information on social media. Stick to the official advice. UK Gov Advice site | Irish Government Advice site.
Stay safe. Wash your hands. And try not to freak the feck out.


sluggerotoole--2020-03-11--Both leaders are “acutely aware of the challenges facing the country with the onset of Covid-19”.

Well , it looks like we ’ re getting into the serious end of negotiating a new government programme now as FF and FG try to negotiate a coalition that is capable of getting enough support to last more than just through the current emergency .
Equal partnership does not sound a comfortable arrangement , but nothing about this post-election period has been in the least comfortable for either .
The Covid scare has persuaded SF to suspend its meetings so , for now , the parties have it in their own hands .
Right now the country needs reassurance @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on how it intends to handle the virus .
From a party political point of view , FF/FG will aslo need their partnership to outlast the short term emergency .
Planning resilience is key .
The only chance of that is to get on with carrying out the instructions of the electorate and up the scale of housing development and dealing with a chronic long term and acute short term health crisis .
And then hoping that the next four/five years will see them through .
It will also for the first time @ @ @ @ @ @ @ official leaders of the opposition ( getting them conveniently off the hook of spending plans that promised everything to everyone ) .
A big opportunity for them and relief for the smaller left parties .
But it is also something of a mid-season break for them , which speaking as a jaded Manchester City fan can also function as a break in a previously tremendous form ( please , don ’ t mention the Derby match ) .
Enthusiasm for a breakthrough has been replaced by fear and practical need for some actual @ @ @ @ @ @ @ some challenging times ahead .
The rabid , nihilistic cynicism of the campaign has given way to something altogether soberer .
Nothing is certain , but death and taxes .
For once we are going to have trust government to help us get through this as safely as it is possible to realistically achieve .
Listen to experts and have our politicians ( for once ) level with us about the truth of the situation .
As for the politics of it all , that is going to have to take a backseat @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
In a year that started darkly for Fianna Fail , in particular , they might take heart from Eoghan Harris ’ s quote from James Carville : I think the other side wants us to think there are no swing voters , that we ’ re doomed and it doesn ’ t even matter if you have a message because you can ’ t reach anyone .
I think that ’ s bulls**t. But look , if no one is persuadable , then let ’ s just have the revolution .
Failling @ @ @ @ @ @ @ though .
I mean , you can curse the darkness or light a candle .
I ’ m getting a f***ing blowtorch .
That seems to cover both the longer-term political problem for FF and ( to a somewhat lesser extent ) FG and the more pressing test of making good the solemn promise of the Republic to cherish all the children of the nation equally .
Photo by NikolayFrolochkin is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA

Well, it looks like we’re getting into the serious end of negotiating a new government programme now as FF and FG try to negotiate a coalition that is capable of getting enough support to last more than just through the current emergency.
Equal partnership does not sound a comfortable arrangement, but nothing about this post-election period has been in the least comfortable for either. The Covid scare has persuaded SF to suspend its meetings so, for now, the parties have it in their own hands.
Right now the country needs reassurance, leadership and some honesty and clarity on how it intends to handle the virus. From a party political point of view, FF/FG will aslo need their partnership to outlast the short term emergency. Planning resilience is key.
The only chance of that is to get on with carrying out the instructions of the electorate and up the scale of housing development and dealing with a chronic long term and acute short term health crisis. And then hoping that the next four/five years will see them through.
It will also for the first time install Sinn Fein as the real and official leaders of the opposition (getting them conveniently off the hook of spending plans that promised everything to everyone). A big opportunity for them and relief for the smaller left parties.
But it is also something of a mid-season break for them, which speaking as a jaded Manchester City fan can also function as a break in a previously tremendous form (please, don’t mention the Derby match).
Enthusiasm for a breakthrough has been replaced by fear and practical need for some actual leadership through what are certain to be some challenging times ahead. The rabid, nihilistic cynicism of the campaign has given way to something altogether soberer.
Nothing is certain, but death and taxes. For once we are going to have trust government to help us get through this as safely as it is possible to realistically achieve. Listen to experts and have our politicians (for once) level with us about the truth of the situation.
As for the politics of it all, that is going to have to take a backseat for a while (for once). In a year that started darkly for Fianna Fail, in particular, they might take heart from Eoghan Harris’s quote from James Carville:
I think the other side wants us to think there are no swing voters, that we’re doomed and it doesn’t even matter if you have a message because you can’t reach anyone. I think that’s bulls**t. But look, if no one is persuadable, then let’s just have the revolution. Failling into despair won’t help anyone though. I mean, you can curse the darkness or light a candle. I’m getting a f***ing blowtorch.
That seems to cover both the longer-term political problem for FF and (to a somewhat lesser extent) FG and the more pressing test of making good the solemn promise of the Republic to cherish all the children of the nation equally.
Photo by NikolayFrolochkin is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA