sluggerotoole--2020-06-29--Is Mental Health the New Wave Post Covid 19?

Covid 19 has presented many challenges since the inception of lockdown on March 23rd .
An uncertain time with unwelcomed anxiety and disappointment that we were apart from friends and family .
Although the relaxing of restrictions comes as a welcome relief it begs the question what other obstacles are potentially ahead of us post Covid 19 ?
Lockdown was never going to be easy for anyone .
However , consider the situation presented to someone struggling with mental health .
Someone who was just about tethering on the “ edge ” but holding on due to medication , counselling @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Cue Covid 19 , already this safety net is taken away following lockdown and those on the cusp of a mental breakdown find themselves alone , isolated and extremely vulnerable .
Mental health in Northern Ireland has always been an issue underfunded and consequentially ignored .
Northern Ireland already has the highest suicide rate in the UK and with Health Minister Robin Swann indicating that he would appoint a Mental Health Champion what happens next ?
How far will Covid 19 intercept any potential plans to improve mental health provision in Northern @ @ @ @ @ @ @ future of the health service is the effect lockdown has had on waiting lists .
Waiting lists has already been an issue in Northern Ireland for many years with members of the public waiting months even years for appointments .
Mix the Coronavirus lockdown into that and the state of waiting times has gotten worse .
Mental Health appointments and consultations are now potentially at risk of being affected by the Covid 19 lockdown .
Appointments and access to vital Mental Health services are now at risk with delays inevitable .
As a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ those who are struggling with mental health problems and unable to obtain vital services that are beneficial to their recovery .
It is completely understandable that when Covid 19 hit we did not know what to expect .
However any government recovery package needs to include financial support for mental health services and an increased focus on reducing waiting times .
Although Minister Swann has revealed a mental health action plan the question is have we heard it all before ?
Health Ministers come and go and each one of them have spoken @ @ @ @ @ @ @ how they intend to improve it .
Furthermore we have constantly seen representative ’ s talk about how they support the improvement of mental health services in Northern Ireland but again after all these years there is no major improvement or overhaul of services .
For this writer actions speak louder than words and words over the years have been cheap .
Time will tell if Robin Swann is serious about reform of our Mental Health Services .
Stormont needs to act now and they need to act fast before any plans to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at the bottom of an ever growing pile of “ things to do ” following a recession that could cripple our Economy and by then mental health reform will become an afterthought .
“ Fairy Foggy Morning – Pippe Mentali Project ” by paolofefe is licensed under CC BY-ND

Covid 19 has presented many challenges since the inception of lockdown on March 23rd. An uncertain time with unwelcomed anxiety and disappointment that we were apart from friends and family. Although the relaxing of restrictions comes as a welcome relief it begs the question what other obstacles are potentially ahead of us post Covid 19?
Lockdown was never going to be easy for anyone. However, consider the situation presented to someone struggling with mental health. Someone who was just about tethering on the “edge” but holding on due to medication, counselling and social interaction with family and friends. Cue Covid 19, already this safety net is taken away following lockdown and those on the cusp of a mental breakdown find themselves alone , isolated and extremely vulnerable.
Mental health in Northern Ireland has always been an issue underfunded and consequentially ignored. Northern Ireland already has the highest suicide rate in the UK and with Health Minister Robin Swann indicating that he would appoint a Mental Health Champion what happens next? How far will Covid 19 intercept any potential plans to improve mental health provision in Northern Ireland?
One key consequence regarding the future of the health service is the effect lockdown has had on waiting lists. Waiting lists has already been an issue in Northern Ireland for many years with members of the public waiting months even years for appointments. Mix the Coronavirus lockdown into that and the state of waiting times has gotten worse. Mental Health appointments and consultations are now potentially at risk of being affected by the Covid 19 lockdown. Appointments and access to vital Mental Health services are now at risk with delays inevitable. As a result this has a detrimental effect on those who are struggling with mental health problems and unable to obtain vital services that are beneficial to their recovery.
It is completely understandable that when Covid 19 hit we did not know what to expect. However any government recovery package needs to include financial support for mental health services and an increased focus on reducing waiting times. Although Minister Swann has revealed a mental health action plan the question is have we heard it all before? Health Ministers come and go and each one of them have spoken the same rhetoric regarding mental health and how they intend to improve it. Furthermore we have constantly seen representative’s talk about how they support the improvement of mental health services in Northern Ireland but again after all these years there is no major improvement or overhaul of services. For this writer actions speak louder than words and words over the years have been cheap. Time will tell if Robin Swann is serious about reform of our Mental Health Services. Stormont needs to act now and they need to act fast before any plans to reform Mental Health in Northern Ireland sits at the bottom of an ever growing pile of “things to do” following a recession that could cripple our Economy and by then mental health reform will become an afterthought.
“Fairy Foggy Morning – Pippe Mentali Project” by paolofefe is licensed under CC BY-ND


sluggerotoole--2020-07-01--Social Distancing Hasn’t Gone Away, You Know…

The Health Minister comes across as an extremely likeable fellow .
Standing atop his podium , like an experienced but weary plumber , the civil and utterly decent Robin Swann is ever ready to plug any leaks in the flow of public compliance and adherence to Covid-19 guidelines .
Despite having his feathers ruffled at the beginning of April , Swann took a dignified stance yesterday and opted not to weigh in with his own personal criticism of a certain someone ’ s attendance at a certain funeral in west Belfast .
Instead , he wielded his spanner broadly , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Féin line-up .
The things one must do to keep the whole damned show flowing along nicely !
The DFM took a gamble by attending the funeral .
The disdain coming from those who ’ ve shielded , sacrificed and refrained from being with their own dear friends and family members in the same situation is particularly distinct .
And yet , for whatever reason , it doesn ’ t seem potent enough for us to indulge any unrealistic talk of a resignation .
While she ’ ll lose a lot of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Arlene Foster that we ’ ve enjoyed over the past few weeks , Michelle O ’ Neill won ’ t go bust .
With the annual Twelfth celebrations ( digital or otherwise ! )
on the horizon there will be enough column inches produced there to provide cover .
Let ’ s face it – most of us have probably , and knowingly , broken social distancing measures at least once , even if you set out to be well meaning .
It ’ s wrong , but you feel like a wee @ @ @ @ @ @ @ there were plenty of rebels in Andersonstown on Tuesday .
Jim Allister keenly pointed that out , but his usual acerbic bluster was lacking .
Hey , we ’ ve all been out of practice these past few months .
Others , meanwhile , have been behaving faultlessly when it comes to distancing measures : the Union Flags fluttering directly outside Dundrum GAA pitch , for example , have been impeccably spaced and separated .
I think , even amid the early Covid-19 panic and general wildness , there was a feeling that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ before the Twelfth celebrations .
And it has , to an extent .
Of course , the Orange Order was absolutely correct in calling for its digital transposition this year , regardless of the path of the crisis .
But now that Sinn Féin has put on a very public display of the heart ruling the head , how likely is it that the Dominic Cummings effect will trigger those who are keen to march on the Twelfth ?
Scores of applications to the Parades Commission have already been made and , to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bandsmen and women across the country for wanting to march and play , when everyone else seems to be Swanning around like Susie in the summertime ?
The criticism flying Sinn Fein ’ s way yesterday was very much of the “ Do as I say but not as I do !
” variety .
Although we ’ re all hypocrites , aren ’ t we ?
Even those in positions of influence .
Except for Robin Swann , though .
He ’ s no drip .
But he ’ ll have his @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ease further out of lockdown and turn the tap back on .

The Health Minister comes across as an extremely likeable fellow. Standing atop his podium, like an experienced but weary plumber, the civil and utterly decent Robin Swann is ever ready to plug any leaks in the flow of public compliance and adherence to Covid-19 guidelines.
Despite having his feathers ruffled at the beginning of April, Swann took a dignified stance yesterday and opted not to weigh in with his own personal criticism of a certain someone’s attendance at a certain funeral in west Belfast. Instead, he wielded his spanner broadly, taking reproachful swipes at the wider Sinn Féin line-up. The things one must do to keep the whole damned show flowing along nicely!
The DFM took a gamble by attending the funeral. The disdain coming from those who’ve shielded, sacrificed and refrained from being with their own dear friends and family members in the same situation is particularly distinct. And yet, for whatever reason, it doesn’t seem potent enough for us to indulge any unrealistic talk of a resignation. While she’ll lose a lot of the credibility gained from those unifying appearances with Arlene Foster that we’ve enjoyed over the past few weeks, Michelle O’Neill won’t go bust. With the annual Twelfth celebrations (digital or otherwise!) on the horizon there will be enough column inches produced there to provide cover.
Let’s face it – most of us have probably, and knowingly, broken social distancing measures at least once, even if you set out to be well meaning. It’s wrong, but you feel like a wee rebel afterwards. And God knows, there were plenty of rebels in Andersonstown on Tuesday.
Jim Allister keenly pointed that out, but his usual acerbic bluster was lacking. Hey, we’ve all been out of practice these past few months.
Others, meanwhile, have been behaving faultlessly when it comes to distancing measures: the Union Flags fluttering directly outside Dundrum GAA pitch, for example, have been impeccably spaced and separated.
I think, even amid the early Covid-19 panic and general wildness, there was a feeling that the virus would have settled down somewhat before the Twelfth celebrations. And it has, to an extent. Of course, the Orange Order was absolutely correct in calling for its digital transposition this year, regardless of the path of the crisis.
But now that Sinn Féin has put on a very public display of the heart ruling the head, how likely is it that the Dominic Cummings effect will trigger those who are keen to march on the Twelfth? Scores of applications to the Parades Commission have already been made and, to be fair, who could blame the bandsmen and women across the country for wanting to march and play, when everyone else seems to be Swanning around like Susie in the summertime?
The criticism flying Sinn Fein’s way yesterday was very much of the “Do as I say but not as I do!” variety.
Although we’re all hypocrites, aren’t we? Even those in positions of influence.
Except for Robin Swann, though. He’s no drip. But he’ll have his work cut out for him as we ease further out of lockdown and turn the tap back on.


sluggerotoole--2020-07-01--#Angrynomics: Governments can use idle stock markets to close the gap between rich and poor, and sav

#Angrynomics: Governments can use idle stock markets to close the gap between rich and poor, and save the planet

Episode Six of # CargoOfBricks , and I speak to Eric Lonergan who along with Mark Blyth has critiqued in # Angrynomics how populism has filled the vacuum between democratic politics and unregulated markets , and between markets and real economies : • At the crux of the book , anger is one of the most powerful agencies within politics just now .
It takes two forms : moral anger as in the witness of injustice and an improving agent within society and the second which acts as a tribal identity regulator .
• As mainstream politicians have ‘ biased @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the elite , rather than the poor , angry , frustrated , or distressed .
Populism has moved into that gap to give such folks a public voice .
And meaningful policy choice gets lost .
• However , Governments can redistribute wealth to those without it and use targeted low-interest rate loans to enable the private sector to drive an ambitious Green New Deal and releasing governments to regenerate our starved public services .
Much food for thought for the new Irish government .
Get yourself a copy : preferably from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Books in Belfast ) or , if you really have to , Hive , Amazon or some other online space .
If you are ( still ) really passionate about democratic politics , you ’ ll enjoy this very important book .
Meantime , see you next week .
You can subscribe to Cargo of Bricks , Slugger TV , and our other podcasts on Apple Podcasts | Google Podcasts or Spotify .
The YouTube version that will appear below has subtitles on it if you click the CC button…

Episode Six of #CargoOfBricks, and I speak to Eric Lonergan who along with Mark Blyth has critiqued in #Angrynomics how populism has filled the vacuum between democratic politics and unregulated markets, and between markets and real economies:
At the crux of the book, anger is one of the most powerful agencies within politics just now. It takes two forms: moral anger as in the witness of injustice and an improving agent within society and the second which acts as a tribal identity regulator.
As mainstream politicians have ‘biased upwards’, listening to the voices of the elite, rather than the poor, angry, frustrated, or distressed. Populism has moved into that gap to give such folks a public voice. And meaningful policy choice gets lost.
However, Governments can redistribute wealth to those without it and use targeted low-interest rate loans to enable the private sector to drive an ambitious Green New Deal and releasing governments to regenerate our starved public services.
Powered by RedCircle
Much food for thought for the new Irish government. Get yourself a copy: preferably from your local bookshop (like No Alibis Books in Belfast) or, if you really have to, Hive, Amazon or some other online space.
If you are (still) really passionate about democratic politics, you’ll enjoy this very important book. Meantime, see you next week. You can subscribe to Cargo of Bricks, Slugger TV, and our other podcasts on Apple Podcasts | Google Podcasts or Spotify.
The YouTube version that will appear below has subtitles on it if you click the CC button…


sluggerotoole--2020-06-30--The New Deal was about more than a phrase, Boris. Michael Gove knows it and is bidding to be the gov

The New Deal was about more than a phrase, Boris. Michael Gove knows it and is bidding to be the government’s man of substance

We knew in advance where Boris Johnson got “ Rooseveltian ” from .
The inspiration came from Michael Gove , his friend and sometime rival who pre-announced Boris ’ s “ bonanza ” and gave him a sort of intellectual alibi in his Ditchley lecture last week .
Johnson has the spectre of 3 million unemployed hanging over him and has had to think of something quick .
Other than borrowing the phrase , he baulks at a New Deal .
He warms up the old Tory manifesto , throws in a few Borisisms and serves .
We ’ re @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of trouble , because the world has moved on since 2008 , ” he said , warning that , “ too many parts of our country have felt left behind , neglected , unloved ” .
He said planning rules would be changed by September , to allow : • Developers to “ demolish and rebuild ” vacant and redundant residential and commercial buildings if they are rebuilt as homes .
• A wider range of commercial buildings to be switched to housing without a planning application .
• Property owners to build @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , via a “ fast track approval process ” .
The government said the changes would allow defunct buildings on high streets to be repurposed to create homes more easily , helping to reduce pressure on the greenbelt But when asked whether he would stick by his manifesto promise not to raise the rates of income tax , VAT or national insurance , he said : “ You should wait to see what the chancellor has to say in the course of the next few weeks and months .
I remain absolutely determined @ @ @ @ @ @ @ insofar as we possibly can , is reasonable.
” …it was pointed out the money announced at his “ build , build , build ” speech in Dudley equates to around just £75 per person .
And the figure represents around 0.2.
% of the UK ’ s current GDP , while the spending in the original “ New Deal ” from American president Franklin D Roosevelt in the 1930s was around 40 % of that country ’ s economic output before the Great Depression .
+Labour ’ s Keir Starmer said there @ @ @ @ @ @ @ new and it ’ s not much of a deal ” .
Michael Gove ’ s lecture was designed to give intellectual heft to Johnson ’ s phrase making .
Gove is another journalist although with a higher brow than his boss .
He made a good start with a quote from a Roosevelt contemporary the Italian Marxist Antonio Gramsci .
Although this was far from his mind it serves as an apt description for the suspended state of Northern Ireland .
“ The crisis consists precisely of the fact that the inherited @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not be born ; in this interregnum a great variety of morbid symptoms appear ” .
.. as we contemplate new technological and scientific breakthroughs we must also consider the ethical and political challenges they bring .
Unless they are thoughtfully addressed , we risk worsening the morbid symptoms of our times… If we are to be equal to all these challenges , then – as the Prime Minister knows and feels passionately – we need to both acknowledge the scale of the change and be ready to change ourselves .
Those in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for me , no one walked that path better , in what W.H Auden called the low , dishonest , decade that was the Thirties , than Franklin Delano Roosevelt .
When he assumed office in 1933 , faith in free markets and the capitalist economy was ebbing dramatically .
Indeed confidence in democracy itself was fragile – with , even in America , the idea of dictatorial executive authority was winning surprising support .
We have set out plans for reform in technical education , schools , the environment , international development @ @ @ @ @ @ @ digital infrastructure , taxation , public procurement , transport and across the whole field of Government .
But if this Government is to reform so much , it must also reform itself .
Of the 108 major programmes for which Government is responsible , only 8 per cent are actually assessed to judge if they have been delivered effectively and brought about the desired results .
.. Now of course , we politicians are principally to blame .
We go for the sugar rush that comes from announcing radical initiatives , unveiling dramatic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ramping up this and rolling out that .
Done right , such moments can galvanise the system into action .
But at times we risk the hunger for new policy announcements becoming insatiable .
There is also a tendency in Government to applaud the gracefully performative and overlook the boringly transformative… .
The whole culture of Government , and the wider world of political commentary , is hostile to risk , adventure , experimentation and novelty The heart of my case , as I hope you now appreciate , is simple .
Faith @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and their allies in business has been broken .
Failures of policy and judgment have put previously existing elites in the dock .
Their misjudgements , in the eyes of many , have been compounded by cultural condescension and insulation from accountability .
The concerns of our fellow citizens are real .
They matter .
Their analysis is resonant .
To carry on rejecting it will only weaken our politics and strengthen division .
We have faced similar , though not identical , crises , before .
To face the crisis honestly , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ theory with embracing big data , Dominic Cummings ’ big thing .
Those of us with long memories have heard much the same all our adult lives : Harold Wilson ’ s “ white heat of the technological revolution ” decentralisation of government , reform of the civil service .
Politicians obsessed with “ delivery ” since at least Tony Blair .
Gove has sounded the warning note against Boris ’ s weakness , “ to applaud the gracefully performative and overlook the boringly transformative ” .
Can he stiffen Johnson ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hypnotised them both with his big thing of big data ?
Data by itself can overwhelm .
it must be read critically and understood .
Sharing data and Gove ’ s dream of transferring civil servants to all points out of London ( except Northern Ireland ) doesn ’ t seem compatible with the centralising , controlling instincts of Cummings ’ No 10 .
If this is the most substance available it ’ s sure to disappoint .
Four years ago , Gove killed off Johnson ’ s initial bid for the Tory @ @ @ @ @ @ @ He is now back well onside but ready and waiting if Johnson seriously stumbles .

Photo: The Guardian
We knew in advance where Boris Johnson got “Rooseveltian” from. The inspiration came from Michael Gove, his friend and sometime rival who pre-announced Boris’s “bonanza” and gave him a sort of intellectual alibi in his Ditchley lecture last week. Johnson has the spectre of 3 million unemployed hanging over him and has had to think of something quick. Other than borrowing the phrase, he baulks at a New Deal. He warms up the old Tory manifesto, throws in a few Borisisms and serves.
We’re not going to cheese-pare our way out of trouble, because the world has moved on since 2008,” he said, warning that, “too many parts of our country have felt left behind, neglected, unloved”.
He said planning rules would be changed by September, to allow:
Developers to “demolish and rebuild” vacant and redundant residential and commercial buildings if they are rebuilt as homes.
A wider range of commercial buildings to be switched to housing without a planning application.
Property owners to build “additional space above their properties”, via a “fast track approval process”.
The government said the changes would allow defunct buildings on high streets to be repurposed to create homes more easily, helping to reduce pressure on the greenbelt
But when asked whether he would stick by his manifesto promise not to raise the rates of income tax, VAT or national insurance, he said: “You should wait to see what the chancellor has to say in the course of the next few weeks and months. I remain absolutely determined to ensure that the tax burden, insofar as we possibly can, is reasonable.”
The initial verdict is cool...
…it was pointed out the money announced at his “build, build, build” speech in Dudley equates to around just £75 per person.
And the figure represents around 0.2.% of the UK’s current GDP, while the spending in the original “New Deal” from American president Franklin D Roosevelt in the 1930s was around 40% of that country’s economic output before the Great Depression.
+Labour’s Keir Starmer said there was “not much that’s new and it’s not much of a deal”.
Michael Gove’s lecture was designed to give intellectual heft to Johnson’s phrase making . Gove is another journalist although with a higher brow than his boss . He made a good start with a quote from a Roosevelt contemporary the Italian Marxist Antonio Gramsci. Although this was far from his mind it serves as an apt description for the suspended state of Northern Ireland.
“The crisis consists precisely of the fact that the inherited is dying – and the new cannot be born; in this interregnum a great variety of morbid symptoms appear”.
Developing his theme..
.. as we contemplate new technological and scientific breakthroughs we must also consider the ethical and political challenges they bring. Unless they are thoughtfully addressed, we risk worsening the morbid symptoms of our times…
If we are to be equal to all these challenges, then – as the Prime Minister knows and feels passionately – we need to both acknowledge the scale of the change and be ready to change ourselves. Those in political leadership most of all.
And for me, no one walked that path better, in what W.H Auden called the low, dishonest, decade that was the Thirties, than Franklin Delano Roosevelt. When he assumed office in 1933, faith in free markets and the capitalist economy was ebbing dramatically. Indeed confidence in democracy itself was fragile – with, even in America, the idea of dictatorial executive authority was winning surprising support.
We have set out plans for reform in technical education, schools, the environment, international development, housing and planning, science, digital infrastructure, taxation, public procurement, transport and across the whole field of Government.
But if this Government is to reform so much, it must also reform itself.
Of the 108 major programmes for which Government is responsible, only 8 per cent are actually assessed to judge if they have been delivered effectively and brought about the desired results. ..
Now of course, we politicians are principally to blame. We go for the sugar rush that comes from announcing radical initiatives, unveiling dramatic overhauls, launching new spending programmes, ramping up this and rolling out that. Done right, such moments can galvanise the system into action. But at times we risk the hunger for new policy announcements becoming insatiable.
There is also a tendency in Government to applaud the gracefully performative and overlook the boringly transformative….
The whole culture of Government, and the wider world of political commentary, is hostile to risk, adventure, experimentation and novelty
The heart of my case, as I hope you now appreciate, is simple.
Faith in conventional political parties, their leadership and their allies in business has been broken.
Failures of policy and judgment have put previously existing elites in the dock.
Their misjudgements, in the eyes of many, have been compounded by cultural condescension and insulation from accountability.
The concerns of our fellow citizens are real. They matter. Their analysis is resonant. To carry on rejecting it will only weaken our politics and strengthen division.
We have faced similar, though not identical, crises, before.
To face the crisis honestly, we must change.
Gove matches alienation theory with embracing big data, Dominic Cummings’ big thing. Those of us with long memories have heard much the same all our adult lives: Harold Wilson’s “white heat of the technological revolution” decentralisation of government, reform of the civil service. Politicians obsessed with “delivery” since at least Tony Blair.
Gove has sounded the warning note against Boris’s weakness, “to applaud the gracefully performative and overlook the boringly transformative”. Can he stiffen Johnson’s phrasemaking with more substance? Has Cummings hypnotised them both with his big thing of big data? Data by itself can overwhelm. it must be read critically and understood. Sharing data and Gove’s dream of transferring civil servants to all points out of London ( except Northern Ireland) doesn’t seem compatible with the centralising, controlling instincts of Cummings’ No 10.
If this is the most substance available it’s sure to disappoint.
Four years ago, Gove killed off Johnson’s initial bid for the Tory leadership in the most humiliating circumstances. He is now back well onside but ready and waiting if Johnson seriously stumbles.


sluggerotoole--2020-06-30--The curious case of the Department of Health

Abortion has been legal in Northern Ireland for over a year now .
Under the Abortion ( Northern Ireland ) Regulations 2020 , terminations up to 12 weeks are now lawful .
Abortions after 12 weeks are heavily restricted .
Terminations are available up to 24 weeks if there is a risk to the mental or physical health of the woman .
There is no time limit where there is a fatal fetal abnormality .
With the law firmly in place , it was expected that the commissioning of abortion services would be next .
All eyes are on the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , early terminations are now available at certain clinics up to 10 weeks .
To access abortions between 10-12 weeks and after , travel to England is still required .
Abortion access isn ’ t currently available via GPs .
It ’ s unlikely that hospitals will allow terminations between 10-12 weeks and after without further guidance .
This will remain the case until abortion services are introduced .
The matter should be straight forward .
Or so you would think .
In a statement provided to journalist Amanda Ferguson on Friday 26th @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ‘ The regulations do not require the Department to commission abortion services , and doing so would be subject to the agreement of the Executive.
’ The Minister for Health regards abortion law and policy as a cross-cutting and controversial issue , which means referral to the Executive is required .
There are clearly different views within the Executive on this question.
’ ‘ The Department has publicly stated that it has received legal advice that , under the new regulations , registered medical professionals in Northern Ireland may now terminate pregnancies lawfully @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be carried out on Health and Social Care premises .
This advice was communicated to Trusts in April .
Decisions remain to be taken on the commissioning of abortion services in NI ’ s health service .
Commissioning is a significant process that will require a public consultation .
It will clearly be matter for the Executive and Assembly as well as the Department.
” In other words : yes , abortion is legal in Northern Ireland .
Bold of you to assume you can have one .
The Abortion ( Northern Ireland @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that the Department must commission abortion services .
That Department of Health must do this is , arguably , the logical conclusion of the legislation .
Abortion is now legal in Northern Ireland .
Health is devolved .
Who else would be responsible for implementing access to abortion ?
Indeed , in its response to the public consultation on the framework for abortion services the Northern Ireland Office stated : ‘ The Department of Health in Northern Ireland will oversee the framework ’ s delivery model and the operational readiness of services .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ with the relevant Northern Ireland departments to ensure that the legal provisions can also be accompanied by models of care , training , professional guidance and professional standards of practice to assist medical professionals.
’ What do the regulations say ?
S,8 of the regulations state that : Any treatment for the termination of pregnancy must be carried out— ( b ) at a clinic provided by an HSC trust for the purpose of carrying out terminations ( whether or not the clinic also provides other services ) ; ( c ) at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in accordance with arrangements under the Health and Personal Social Services ( Northern Ireland ) Order 1972 ( 1 ) ; ( d ) in the case of the second stage of treatment for termination where the conditions mentioned in paragraph ( 2 ) are satisfied , in the home of the pregnant woman ; or ‘ The Department may , for the purposes of these Regulations , approve a place for the carrying out of terminations .
( 5 ) An approval under this regulation— ( a ) must be given in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ published by the Department in such manner as it thinks appropriate.
’ S , 9 and s , 10 of the Regulations further mention the Department having a role in providing forms for medical certification and notifications being sent to the Chief Medical Officer .
Again , the legislation states that the Department ‘ may ’ act .
Minister Swann believes that he has a duty to refer the matter to the Executive Office under section 2.4 of the Ministerial Code .
The code states that a Minister has a duty to bring @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Executive if it is , ‘ significant or controversial and which has been determined by the First and deputy First Minister acting jointly to be a matter that should be considered by the Executive Committee.
’ Nerds will remember that section 2.4 of the Ministerial Code was important in the Buick case involving a £240 million incinerator in Mallusk .
The court hearings were concerned with ministerial power , the absence of the Assembly and civil servants .
The Ministerial Code does not apply to Departments .
Abortion services are arguably controversial and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this isn ’ t about planning permission but the provision of healthcare .
The law is already in place .
The law allows abortions up to 12 weeks and beyond in certain circumstances .
All that ’ s required is implementation .
If the Executive does not approve the Department of Health commissioning abortion services , what then ?
Are we to have a situation where the law says a woman can have a termination in Northern Ireland but she ’ ll still have to fly to England to have one ?
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ consultation on the commissioning of abortion services will also raise eyebrows .
Other than a hospital or somewhere like Marie Stopes , where does the Department expect abortions to be carried out , in a Starbucks ?
Everything about this screams legal case.We ’ re about to have some interesting conversations about ministerial power , the civil service and the letter of law .
A lot depends on what the Department will do next but may see the matter come before the courts again .
Until then , women and people in Northern @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to England to access what they should legally be able to obtain at home .

Abortion has been legal in Northern Ireland for over a year now. Under the Abortion (Northern Ireland) Regulations 2020, terminations up to 12 weeks are now lawful. Abortions after 12 weeks are heavily restricted. Terminations are available up to 24 weeks if there is a risk to the mental or physical health of the woman. There is no time limit where there is a fatal fetal abnormality.
With the law firmly in place, it was expected that the commissioning of abortion services would be next. All eyes are on the Department of Health.
As it stands, early terminations are now available at certain clinics up to 10 weeks. To access abortions between 10-12 weeks and after, travel to England is still required. Abortion access isn’t currently available via GPs. It’s unlikely that hospitals will allow terminations between 10-12 weeks and after without further guidance. This will remain the case until abortion services are introduced. The matter should be straight forward. Or so you would think.
In a statement provided to journalist Amanda Ferguson on Friday 26th, the Department of Health stated:
‘The regulations do not require the Department to commission abortion services, and doing so would be subject to the agreement of the Executive.’
The Minister for Health regards abortion law and policy as a cross-cutting and controversial issue, which means referral to the Executive is required. There are clearly different views within the Executive on this question.’
Further:
‘The Department has publicly stated that it has received legal advice that, under the new regulations, registered medical professionals in Northern Ireland may now terminate pregnancies lawfully. The regulations require such terminations to be carried out on Health and Social Care premises. This advice was communicated to Trusts in April.
Decisions remain to be taken on the commissioning of abortion services in NI’s health service. Commissioning is a significant process that will require a public consultation. It will clearly be matter for the Executive and Assembly as well as the Department.”
In other words: yes, abortion is legal in Northern Ireland. Bold of you to assume you can have one.
Let’s unpack:
The Abortion (Northern Ireland) Regulations 2020 do not explicitly say that the Department must commission abortion services. That Department of Health must do this is, arguably, the logical conclusion of the legislation. Abortion is now legal in Northern Ireland. Health is devolved. Who else would be responsible for implementing access to abortion?
Indeed, in its response to the public consultation on the framework for abortion services the Northern Ireland Office stated:
‘The Department of Health in Northern Ireland will oversee the framework’s delivery model and the operational readiness of services. The Government will continue to work closely with the relevant Northern Ireland departments to ensure that the legal provisions can also be accompanied by models of care, training, professional guidance and professional standards of practice to assist medical professionals.’
What do the regulations say?
S,8 of the regulations state that:
Any treatment for the termination of pregnancy must be carried out—
(a)in an HSC hospital;
(b)at a clinic provided by an HSC trust for the purpose of carrying out terminations (whether or not the clinic also provides other services);
(c)at premises used to provide primary medical services in accordance with arrangements under the Health and Personal Social Services (Northern Ireland) Order 1972(1);
(d)in the case of the second stage of treatment for termination where the conditions mentioned in paragraph (2) are satisfied, in the home of the pregnant woman; or
(e)at a place approved under paragraph (3).
Section 8 then later states:
‘The Department may, for the purposes of these Regulations, approve a place for the carrying out of terminations.
(5) An approval under this regulation—
(a)must be given in writing;
(b)must be published by the Department in such manner as it thinks appropriate.’
S, 9 and s, 10 of the Regulations further mention the Department having a role in providing forms for medical certification and notifications being sent to the Chief Medical Officer. Again, the legislation states that the Department ‘may’ act.
Minister Swann believes that he has a duty to refer the matter to the Executive Office under section 2.4 of the Ministerial Code. The code states that a Minister has a duty to bring a matter to the attention of the Executive if it is, ‘significant or controversial and which has been determined by the First and deputy First Minister acting jointly to be a matter that should be considered by the Executive Committee.’
Nerds will remember that section 2.4 of the Ministerial Code was important in the Buick case involving a £240 million incinerator in Mallusk. The court hearings were concerned with ministerial power, the absence of the Assembly and civil servants.
The Ministerial Code does not apply to Departments. Abortion services are arguably controversial and significant. Unlike Buick, however, this isn’t about planning permission but the provision of healthcare. The law is already in place. The law allows abortions up to 12 weeks and beyond in certain circumstances. All that’s required is implementation.
If the Executive does not approve the Department of Health commissioning abortion services, what then? Are we to have a situation where the law says a woman can have a termination in Northern Ireland but she’ll still have to fly to England to have one?
The position that there should be a public consultation on the commissioning of abortion services will also raise eyebrows. Other than a hospital or somewhere like Marie Stopes, where does the Department expect abortions to be carried out, in a Starbucks?
Everything about this screams legal case.We’re about to have some interesting conversations about ministerial power, the civil service and the letter of law. A lot depends on what the Department will do next but may see the matter come before the courts again. Until then, women and people in Northern Ireland will continue to have to travel to England to access what they should legally be able to obtain at home.


sluggerotoole--2020-06-30--The uneasy relationship between unionists and the RIC…

Dr Adrian Grant is a Lecturer in Policy at UU Opinion : the complexity of events in Ireland a century ago does not lend itself to generalised statements about unionist history The extent of the recent controversy around the proposed state commemoration of the Royal Irish Constabulary ( RIC ) and the Dublin Metropolitan Police was largely unexpected .
Some went so far as to say it contributed to Fine Gael ’ s poor showing in the February general election .
Much has been written about this since , including commentary on the government ’ s response .
I recently @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Derry city and county in the 1912-23 , and I was struck by the lack of historicity in the Taoiseach ’ s assertion that the forced cancellation of the commemoration meant a ‘ setback for unity and a setback for reconciliation ’ .
Minister for Justice Charlie Flanagan went further , stating that ‘ any unionist looking at this will be rightly very concerned at the idea of reuniting Ireland ’ .
If we look at the experience of just one county , we can see that the complexity of events from one @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to generalised statements about unionist history , or how unionists feel about their past today .
The first person killed as a result of political violence in Ireland during the 1912-23 period was Francis Armstrong , a thirty-five year old Protestant shot dead in Derry by the RIC as he watched a riot from his front window on 14 August 1913 .
Extra police had been drafted into the city from southern counties in response to growing unrest over the home rule issue .
In an editorial soon after Armstrong ’ s death @ @ @ @ @ @ @ clear that ‘ irreparable ’ damage had been done by the ‘ imported police ’ , and that it should be remembered that the RIC was ‘ almost exclusively Roman Catholic ’ .
The police stationed at the Lecky Road RIC Barracks were held with a particular suspicion by some unionists in Derry throughout the 1912-23 period , mainly because most of them were southern Catholics .
This suspicion was intensified in June 1920 when a group of policemen publicly offered their resignations in protest at suspected collusion between police , army and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ This came after twenty people were killed during a week of intense violence that also saw innumerable people injured and more ejected from their homes .
One of those forced from her home by a loyalist mob was the widow of an RIC member .
Her husband , Detective Sergeant Denis Moroney , had been killed by an IRA member during a riot only weeks earlier .
Ironically , the local IRA unit set up a vigilante police force during the June violence in an attempt to curtail sectarian revenge attacks on Protestant @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the RIC culminated in the formation of the almost exclusively Protestant Ulster Special Constabulary ( USC ) in October 1920 .
This new reserve force had its roots in the rejuvenated Ulster Volunteer Force ( UVF ) and the kind of vigilante groups the Derry RIC men were protesting against the previous summer .
The UVF commander in Derry , Colonel George Moore Irvine , boasted in September that he was practically the ‘ Governor of Derry ’ , since the UVF had been effectively raised above the RIC as the British Army @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ground .
He was then appointed USC Commander in Derry and set about establishing a headquarters in the old UVF meeting house .
Ulster Protestant distrust of the RIC was most potently symbolised by its replacement with the Royal Ulster Constabulary on 1 June 1922 .
A commitment to recruit proportionately based on religious demographics was soon abandoned and the new force took on a distinctively unionist and Protestant identity .
The differing perceptions of the new and old police forces held by Catholics and Protestants in 1920s Northern Ireland perfectly illustrate the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ relationship with the people of Ireland .
The communal memory of the early USC in republican parts of south Co. Derry is of a rampaging force that went on a killing spree in the spring and summer of 1922 .
When the USC arrived with internment orders at the Cookstown home of Willie Donnelly , his mother met them with a cleaver and threatened she would ‘ cut the head off every one of ye ’ s ’ .
Sensing an obvious need to defuse the situation , the USC men called in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the area .
Mrs Donnelly invited the sergeant in and cooked him a steak ahead of his long journey to bring her son to the Argenta prison ship moored in Belfast Lough .
The Decade of Centenaries has been promoted by the Irish government as a time to reflect on ‘ fresh insights and constructive dialogue , and to foster deeper mutual understanding among people from different traditions ’ .
If the same effort is not extended to understanding the complexities of unionist history and avoiding the nationalist tendency to view unionism as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the positive work of the decade carried out thus far will be hopelessly tainted .

Dr Adrian Grant is a Lecturer in Policy at UU
Opinion: the complexity of events in Ireland a century ago does not lend itself to generalised statements about unionist history
The extent of the recent controversy around the proposed state commemoration of the Royal Irish Constabulary (RIC) and the Dublin Metropolitan Police was largely unexpected. Some went so far as to say it contributed to Fine Gael’s poor showing in the February general election. Much has been written about this since, including commentary on the government’s response.
I recently wrote a book about the history of Derry city and county in the 1912-23, and I was struck by the lack of historicity in the Taoiseach’s assertion that the forced cancellation of the commemoration meant a ‘setback for unity and a setback for reconciliation’. Minister for Justice Charlie Flanagan went further, stating that ‘any unionist looking at this will be rightly very concerned at the idea of reuniting Ireland’.
If we look at the experience of just one county, we can see that the complexity of events from one hundred years ago does not lend itself to generalised statements about unionist history, or how unionists feel about their past today.
The first person killed as a result of political violence in Ireland during the 1912-23 period was Francis Armstrong, a thirty-five year old Protestant shot dead in Derry by the RIC as he watched a riot from his front window on 14 August 1913. Extra police had been drafted into the city from southern counties in response to growing unrest over the home rule issue. In an editorial soon after Armstrong’s death, the unionist Londonderry Sentinel newspaper made clear that ‘irreparable’ damage had been done by the ‘imported police’, and that it should be remembered that the RIC was ‘almost exclusively Roman Catholic’.
The police stationed at the Lecky Road RIC Barracks were held with a particular suspicion by some unionists in Derry throughout the 1912-23 period, mainly because most of them were southern Catholics. This suspicion was intensified in June 1920 when a group of policemen publicly offered their resignations in protest at suspected collusion between police, army and loyalist vigilante groups in the city. This came after twenty people were killed during a week of intense violence that also saw innumerable people injured and more ejected from their homes. One of those forced from her home by a loyalist mob was the widow of an RIC member. Her husband, Detective Sergeant Denis Moroney, had been killed by an IRA member during a riot only weeks earlier. Ironically, the local IRA unit set up a vigilante police force during the June violence in an attempt to curtail sectarian revenge attacks on Protestant homes and properties.
Unionist distrust of the RIC culminated in the formation of the almost exclusively Protestant Ulster Special Constabulary (USC) in October 1920. This new reserve force had its roots in the rejuvenated Ulster Volunteer Force (UVF) and the kind of vigilante groups the Derry RIC men were protesting against the previous summer. The UVF commander in Derry, Colonel George Moore Irvine, boasted in September that he was practically the ‘Governor of Derry’, since the UVF had been effectively raised above the RIC as the British Army’s eyes and ears on the ground. He was then appointed USC Commander in Derry and set about establishing a headquarters in the old UVF meeting house.
Ulster Protestant distrust of the RIC was most potently symbolised by its replacement with the Royal Ulster Constabulary on 1 June 1922. A commitment to recruit proportionately based on religious demographics was soon abandoned and the new force took on a distinctively unionist and Protestant identity.
The differing perceptions of the new and old police forces held by Catholics and Protestants in 1920s Northern Ireland perfectly illustrate the complex history of the force and its relationship with the people of Ireland. The communal memory of the early USC in republican parts of south Co. Derry is of a rampaging force that went on a killing spree in the spring and summer of 1922. When the USC arrived with internment orders at the Cookstown home of Willie Donnelly, his mother met them with a cleaver and threatened she would ‘cut the head off every one of ye’s’. Sensing an obvious need to defuse the situation, the USC men called in an established, long-serving police sergeant from the area. Mrs Donnelly invited the sergeant in and cooked him a steak ahead of his long journey to bring her son to the Argenta prison ship moored in Belfast Lough.
The Decade of Centenaries has been promoted by the Irish government as a time to reflect on ‘fresh insights and constructive dialogue, and to foster deeper mutual understanding among people from different traditions’. If the same effort is not extended to understanding the complexities of unionist history and avoiding the nationalist tendency to view unionism as a monolithic entity, then much of the positive work of the decade carried out thus far will be hopelessly tainted.


sluggerotoole--2020-06-30--Time to Reform First-Past-the-Post (FPTP) for Westminster Elections?

In the 2019 Westminster general election in Northern Ireland , the 18 successful candidates gained 359,000 votes out of a valid poll of 799,034 .
This represents only 44.9 % of the electorate .
A clear majority of voters are not represented in Westminster .
Unionist voters in border areas are not represented ; nationalist voters from North Antrim to Upper Bann to Strangford are not represented .
Twice as many Alliance voters are unrepresented as are represented .
The DUP garnered 30.6 % of the vote and won 44.4 % of the seats ( a bonus ( + ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ other parties , the figures are : SF ( 22.8 % / 38.9 % / +16.1 % ) ; Alliance ( 16.8 % / 5.6 % / deficit ( - ) of 11.2 % ) ; SDLP ( 14.9 % / 11.1 % / -3.8 % ) ; UUP ( 11.7 % / 0 % / -11.7 % ) ; Others ( 3.2 % / 0 % / -3.2 % ) .
Four of the five major parties have either an excess or deficit of more than 10 % .
It is ironic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ abolished PR for NI Parliamentary elections to both copper-fasten its hegemony over nationalists and to stifle the emergence of labour and radical voices within working-class unionist areas , yet it now finds itself unrepresented in Westminster , despite gaining 11.7 % of the vote .
FPTP gives huge electoral advantage to larger parties .
The DUP and SF combined vote was 53.4 % , yet their combined share of the seats is 83.3 % .
The big losers are the three more moderate parties , particularly Alliance and the UUP .
The yawning @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is an intrinsic element of FPTP .
Moreover , in constituencies where there is parity between two of the three blocs – Fermanagh & South Tyrone by-election in 1981 or North Belfast in 2019 , for example – pressure is put on the more moderate party within a bloc to withdraw ( SDLP and UUP , respectively , in the above examples ) .
Such pressure does not happen in Assembly and local elections when the Proportional Representation – Single Transferable Vote ( PR-STV ) electoral system is used .
Thus , FPTP @ @ @ @ @ @ @ process : in a free and fair election , no candidate or party should come under pressure or intimidation to withdraw from the electoral race , and voters should not have to resort to tactical voting .
What difference would PR-STV make to Westminster elections ?
NI voters are used to PR-STV , so there would be no learning curve .
Three six-seater constituencies could be drawn , each one including six current seats .
The map below shows three possible constituencies whose boundaries were chosen to give recognition to the geography of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ contiguous configuration of boundaries should give broadly similar results in a proportional election .
Belfast Lough comprises the four Belfast constituencies , plus North Down and East Antrim .
Border consists of the five Border constituencies plus Mid-Ulster ; with the remaining six constituencies in Central .
Assuming the same party votes as in 2019 , it is likely that about 85 % of voters ( six-sevenths ) would now be represented , about twice as many as under FPTP .
Belfast Lough would return three DUP , one Alliance , one SF @ @ @ @ @ @ @ return three DUP , one UUP , one Alliance and one SF MP .
Border would return two SF , two SDLP , one DUP and one UUP MP .
The DUP would now have a bonus ( + ) of 8.3 % in terms of seats .
For the other parties : SF would have a deficit ( - ) of 0.6 % ; Alliance ( -5.7 % ) ; SDLP ( +1.8 % ) ; UUP ( -0.6 % ) ; Others ( -3.2 % ) .
No party would have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 10 % between votes and seats .
As each of the 18 seats is worth 5.6 % , no party would have more than a one seat bonus or deficit .
The two big losers in such a new electoral system are the DUP and SF .
Why would they agree to a reform that appears to be against their electoral interests ?
It depends on whether they see their interests in the short-term or long-term .
Both parties , despite their overwhelming success within their own bloc , have essentially failed in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ people as possible of the merits of their respective visions of unionism or unity .
Could FPTP-influenced politics be to blame for these failures ?
I believe so .
There is a tension in both parties between the fundamentalist base and the pragmatic leadership .
While both parties have avoided a split in the past twenty-five years of peace process , proroguing and power-sharing , it is evident that this tension stops both parties from being brave , from breaking out of their tribal straitjacket and from attracting post-GFA voters , who are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and complexities of a Northern Irish identity than in the integrity of ancient quarrels from a murky past .
Despite a rising Catholic share of the electorate , a smaller percentage of voters is now voting nationalist than twenty years ago .
And the DUP has shed many unionist voters to Alliance .
FPTP is cruel to losers : if the middle-ground bloc vote continues to increase , it is possible in the longer term that both SF and DUP could lose many seats overnight and end up with huge seat deficits rather @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Redrawing of FPTP constituency boundaries could have a catastrophic effect on the number of seats won by a party even if their overall vote stayed constant .
FPTP embodies electoral segregation : candidates and parties are encouraged to energise their base by denigrating the other side .
PR-STV embodies reconciliation : candidates and parties are encouraged to reach out to all voters for transfers .
Could one imagine the two Civil War parties going into a grand coalition in Dublin after a FPTP election rather than a PR-STV election ?
I think @ @ @ @ @ @ @ electoral system would be the coup de grâce for those who wish to keep politics stuck in the zero-sum-where-do-you-stand-on-the-border rut .
It would result in the election of politicians who would be dependent for the most part on transfers , knowing that if they resort to the ancient bile-dripping verities of sectarian purity , their attractiveness – and transfers – will continue to decline among middle-ground voters , who are the new kingmakers in a majorityless polity .
It would finally consign to history winner-take-all electoral politics .
No longer in the baleful @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fragile acorn that is the Assembly may yet grow into a mighty oak .
Photo by mounsey is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA

In the 2019 Westminster general election in Northern Ireland, the 18 successful candidates gained 359,000 votes out of a valid poll of 799,034. This represents only 44.9% of the electorate. A clear majority of voters are not represented in Westminster. Unionist voters in border areas are not represented; nationalist voters from North Antrim to Upper Bann to Strangford are not represented. Twice as many Alliance voters are unrepresented as are represented.
The DUP garnered 30.6% of the vote and won 44.4% of the seats (a bonus (+) of 13.8%). For the other parties, the figures are: SF (22.8% / 38.9% / +16.1%); Alliance (16.8% / 5.6% / deficit (-) of 11.2%); SDLP (14.9% / 11.1% / -3.8%); UUP (11.7% / 0% / -11.7%); Others (3.2% / 0% / -3.2%). Four of the five major parties have either an excess or deficit of more than 10%.
It is ironic that in the 1920s the Unionist Party abolished PR for NI Parliamentary elections to both copper-fasten its hegemony over nationalists and to stifle the emergence of labour and radical voices within working-class unionist areas, yet it now finds itself unrepresented in Westminster, despite gaining 11.7% of the vote.
FPTP gives huge electoral advantage to larger parties. The DUP and SF combined vote was 53.4%, yet their combined share of the seats is 83.3%. The big losers are the three more moderate parties, particularly Alliance and the UUP.
The yawning chasm between vote percentage and seat percentage is an intrinsic element of FPTP. Moreover, in constituencies where there is parity between two of the three blocs – Fermanagh & South Tyrone by-election in 1981 or North Belfast in 2019, for example – pressure is put on the more moderate party within a bloc to withdraw (SDLP and UUP, respectively, in the above examples). Such pressure does not happen in Assembly and local elections when the Proportional Representation – Single Transferable Vote (PR-STV) electoral system is used. Thus, FPTP can be seen to deform the electoral process: in a free and fair election, no candidate or party should come under pressure or intimidation to withdraw from the electoral race, and voters should not have to resort to tactical voting.
What difference would PR-STV make to Westminster elections? NI voters are used to PR-STV, so there would be no learning curve. Three six-seater constituencies could be drawn, each one including six current seats. The map below shows three possible constituencies whose boundaries were chosen to give recognition to the geography of identity within Northern Ireland, but any contiguous configuration of boundaries should give broadly similar results in a proportional election.
Belfast Lough comprises the four Belfast constituencies, plus North Down and East Antrim. Border consists of the five Border constituencies plus Mid-Ulster; with the remaining six constituencies in Central.
Assuming the same party votes as in 2019, it is likely that about 85% of voters (six-sevenths) would now be represented, about twice as many as under FPTP.
Belfast Lough would return three DUP, one Alliance, one SF and one SDLP MP. Central would return three DUP, one UUP, one Alliance and one SF MP. Border would return two SF, two SDLP, one DUP and one UUP MP.
The DUP would now have a bonus (+) of 8.3% in terms of seats. For the other parties: SF would have a deficit (-) of 0.6%; Alliance (-5.7%); SDLP (+1.8%); UUP (-0.6%); Others (-3.2%). No party would have an excess or deficit of more than 10% between votes and seats. As each of the 18 seats is worth 5.6%, no party would have more than a one seat bonus or deficit.
The two big losers in such a new electoral system are the DUP and SF. Why would they agree to a reform that appears to be against their electoral interests? It depends on whether they see their interests in the short-term or long-term. Both parties, despite their overwhelming success within their own bloc, have essentially failed in their core aim of convincing as many people as possible of the merits of their respective visions of unionism or unity. Could FPTP-influenced politics be to blame for these failures? I believe so.
There is a tension in both parties between the fundamentalist base and the pragmatic leadership. While both parties have avoided a split in the past twenty-five years of peace process, proroguing and power-sharing, it is evident that this tension stops both parties from being brave, from breaking out of their tribal straitjacket and from attracting post-GFA voters, who are more interested in living with the synergies and complexities of a Northern Irish identity than in the integrity of ancient quarrels from a murky past. Despite a rising Catholic share of the electorate, a smaller percentage of voters is now voting nationalist than twenty years ago. And the DUP has shed many unionist voters to Alliance. FPTP is cruel to losers: if the middle-ground bloc vote continues to increase, it is possible in the longer term that both SF and DUP could lose many seats overnight and end up with huge seat deficits rather than the big bonuses they now have. Redrawing of FPTP constituency boundaries could have a catastrophic effect on the number of seats won by a party even if their overall vote stayed constant.
FPTP embodies electoral segregation: candidates and parties are encouraged to energise their base by denigrating the other side. PR-STV embodies reconciliation: candidates and parties are encouraged to reach out to all voters for transfers. Could one imagine the two Civil War parties going into a grand coalition in Dublin after a FPTP election rather than a PR-STV election? I think not.
Getting rid of the FPTP electoral system would be the coup de grâce for those who wish to keep politics stuck in the zero-sum-where-do-you-stand-on-the-border rut. It would result in the election of politicians who would be dependent for the most part on transfers, knowing that if they resort to the ancient bile-dripping verities of sectarian purity, their attractiveness – and transfers – will continue to decline among middle-ground voters, who are the new kingmakers in a majorityless polity. It would finally consign to history winner-take-all electoral politics. No longer in the baleful shadows of Westminster zero-sum elections, the fragile acorn that is the Assembly may yet grow into a mighty oak.
Photo by mounsey is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA


sluggerotoole--2020-06-29--Irish Government needs to pick an ambitious and sustainable path to economic renewal past climate ch

Irish Government needs to pick an ambitious and sustainable path to economic renewal past climate change. And stay on it.

So Micheál Martin made good his strategic promise when he took over the party 2011 that he would lead the Fianna Fáil party back into government within ten years .
It ’ s easy to forget just how implausible that sounded at the time , as they returned with just 20 seats .
He has also tried over the years since to make it clear to his party that there would be no more comfortably large wedges of single party dominance .
Indeed , the outgoing government could be the last we see where one Taoiseach has such dominance around @ @ @ @ @ @ @ incoming administration will have no such comfort zone , nor indeed will Leo Varadkar when he comes back for his second term at the end of 2022 .
Three parties will have to hack out this government ’ s course through moderation and consensus .
And it is very much his government .
Pulling it together has not been easy , with as Theresa Reidy noted on Cargo of Bricks recently , social distancing requirements slowed down negotiations right down , or if you take the cynical view ran the clock down on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in each of the three parties are impressive and they probably also give an indication that this is an administration that has got enough support to go the whole distance .
That Martin was voted in by 93 to 63 gives him added confidence the Dáil is behind him .
The programme for government has a lot of criticism because it ’ s very long on promises but short on real commitments .
That may be a reflection of Martin ’ s obsession with detail , but it also reflects the fact that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ plan can deliver all this .
Coming up with a response to that will fall to the Fine Gael Finance Minister Paschal Donohoe who is one of the most intellectually engaged members of the Fine Gael front bench .
Naturally courteous , he ’ s not a million miles from the new Taoiseach in personal temperament .
The success of this administration will rest on his ability to find innovative ways to reverse the long term global trend of states being forced to carry enormous corporate debt whilst picking up the huge social @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the credit crunch and Covid19 .
Solving big problems in health and housing is simply the entry level qualification for this government , like eaten bread it may well be forgotten by the time of the next election ( much as the 2016 touchstone , Irish Water , was in February ) .
But the myth of the austerity era that you can do more with less does not apply to these two big issues .
The cash will have to found from somewhere , and pulling back on infrastructural promises will only @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the giant fiscal hole Covid has left .
It will also have to address the wealth and resource deficits on the island giving citizens not just the banks the means to invest in their own communities and start to believe again in the future of their children and grandchildren whichever far flung part of the country they live .
Our deputy editor David McCann has pointed out elsewhere that failure to appoint a unionist voice to the Seanad was a missed opportunity .
I suspect that ’ s much to do with the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in parliament generally , particularly women .
One thing that will change for the better is North South relations .
Martin ’ s willingness to call Sinn Féin ’ s recidivism , not least its deliberate collapse of the institutions of the Belfast Agreement has won him trust amongst Unionists that has evaded other southern leaders .
Having long criticised his two Fine Gael predecessors for taking their eye off the northern ball , Martin ’ s priority will be develop cross government capacity to fill out and support those institutions ( see @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s full of actual business .
The Department of the Taoiseach is to house the Shared Ireland unit , with the specific intention of making sure that all members of the cabinet bring a cross border perspective to critical policy areas such as crime , jobs , infrastructure and the environment .
The hollowing neglect of these critical institutions was what made them so easy for Sinn Féin to kick over with barely anyone outside Stormont noticing they were gone for three years .
This is particularly true of the vast majority @ @ @ @ @ @ @ expect engagement with Northern Ireland to increase , not least with Brexit set to change the fundamental economic arrangements within and between the two islands .
The previous focus on the border has left a lot of practical questions unasked never mind unanswered .
Nearer home , he has big problems to fix .
In the foreground is the short term deficit hole , longer term tackling climate in a shorter and shorter time frame , and despite the fact the gap is nowhere near as wide as other countries , the wealthy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ problem .
If the country is to return to that moment in 1959 , when under Whittaker and Lemass it last decided who and what the country wanted to be , they need to pick an ambitious , thriving , playful and ultimately sustainable path forward on economic renewal and climate change .
And stay on it .
To quote my two favourite authors of the moment , Eric Lonergan and Mark Blyth at the moment , it ’ s about “ calming the anger ” and moving from # Angrynomics to an @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Afternote : Listen out for my interview with Eric on Wednesday in Episode 6 of our new podcast # CargoOfBricks… “ Happy st. Patrick ’ s day !
– Dublin , Ireland ” by Giuseppe Milo ( www.pixael.com ) is licensed under CC BY

“Anger is a valid emotion. It’s only bad when it takes control and makes you do things you didn’t want to do…”
Ellen Hopkins, via #Angrynomics
So Micheál Martin made good his strategic promise when he took over the party 2011 that he would lead the Fianna Fáil party back into government within ten years. It’s easy to forget just how implausible that sounded at the time, as they returned with just 20 seats.
He has also tried over the years since to make it clear to his party that there would be no more comfortably large wedges of single party dominance. Indeed, the outgoing government could be the last we see where one Taoiseach has such dominance around the cabinet table.
Martin’s incoming administration will have no such comfort zone, nor indeed will Leo Varadkar when he comes back for his second term at the end of 2022. Three parties will have to hack out this government’s course through moderation and consensus.
And it is very much his government. Pulling it together has not been easy, with as Theresa Reidy noted on Cargo of Bricks recently, social distancing requirements slowed down negotiations right down, or if you take the cynical view ran the clock down on any other option.
But the numbers in each of the three parties are impressive and they probably also give an indication that this is an administration that has got enough support to go the whole distance. That Martin was voted in by 93 to 63 gives him added confidence the Dáil is behind him.
The programme for government has a lot of criticism because it’s very long on promises but short on real commitments. That may be a reflection of Martin’s obsession with detail, but it also reflects the fact that it is not yet clear what business plan can deliver all this.
Coming up with a response to that will fall to the Fine Gael Finance Minister Paschal Donohoe who is one of the most intellectually engaged members of the Fine Gael front bench. Naturally courteous, he’s not a million miles from the new Taoiseach in personal temperament.
The success of this administration will rest on his ability to find innovative ways to reverse the long term global trend of states being forced to carry enormous corporate debt whilst picking up the huge social and economic cost of global shocks like the credit crunch and Covid19.
Solving big problems in health and housing is simply the entry level qualification for this government, like eaten bread it may well be forgotten by the time of the next election (much as the 2016 touchstone, Irish Water, was in February).
But the myth of the austerity era that you can do more with less does not apply to these two big issues. The cash will have to found from somewhere, and pulling back on infrastructural promises will only get them so far in filling in the giant fiscal hole Covid has left.
It will also have to address the wealth and resource deficits on the island giving citizens not just the banks the means to invest in their own communities and start to believe again in the future of their children and grandchildren whichever far flung part of the country they live.
Our deputy editor David McCann has pointed out elsewhere that failure to appoint a unionist voice to the Seanad was a missed opportunity. I suspect that’s much to do with the exigent need to re-enforce his political presence in parliament generally, particularly women.
One thing that will change for the better is North South relations. Martin’s willingness to call Sinn Féin’s recidivism, not least its deliberate collapse of the institutions of the Belfast Agreement has won him trust amongst Unionists that has evaded other southern leaders.
Having long criticised his two Fine Gael predecessors for taking their eye off the northern ball, Martin’s priority will be develop cross government capacity to fill out and support those institutions (see Tim Snyder) with an agenda that’s full of actual business.
The Department of the Taoiseach is to house the Shared Ireland unit, with the specific intention of making sure that all members of the cabinet bring a cross border perspective to critical policy areas such as crime, jobs, infrastructure and the environment.
The hollowing neglect of these critical institutions was what made them so easy for Sinn Féin to kick over with barely anyone outside Stormont noticing they were gone for three years. This is particularly true of the vast majority of the Dublin press.
We can expect engagement with Northern Ireland to increase, not least with Brexit set to change the fundamental economic arrangements within and between the two islands. The previous focus on the border has left a lot of practical questions unasked never mind unanswered.
Nearer home, he has big problems to fix. In the foreground is the short term deficit hole, longer term tackling climate in a shorter and shorter time frame, and despite the fact the gap is nowhere near as wide as other countries, the wealthy 1% versus the rest of us problem.
If the country is to return to that moment in 1959, when under Whittaker and Lemass it last decided who and what the country wanted to be, they need to pick an ambitious, thriving, playful and ultimately sustainable path forward on economic renewal and climate change.
And stay on it. To quote my two favourite authors of the moment, Eric Lonergan and Mark Blyth at the moment, it’s about “calming the anger” and moving from #Angrynomics to an economics that works for everyone”.
Afternote: Listen out for my interview with Eric on Wednesday in Episode 6 of our new podcast #CargoOfBricks…
“Happy st. Patrick’s day! – Dublin, Ireland” by Giuseppe Milo (www.pixael.com) is licensed under CC BY


sluggerotoole--2020-07-02--From united Ireland to a united island to a shared island. What’s in a phrase?

On the grand coalition ’ s approach to the Irish future , the Trinity academic Etain Tannam has noticed important changes in the final version of the Programme for Government The final version in June differed quite significantly from the draft version in April .
The 2020 Programme for Government provides a detailed long-term plan and creates a new unit in the Department of the Taoiseach to ‘ work towards a consensus on a shared island..
The 2020 Programme for Government provides a detailed long-term plan and creates a new unit in the Department of the Taoiseach to ‘ work @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ .
It seeks to energise the North-South Ministerial Council ( strand 2 of the Good Friday Agreement ) , as well as the British-Irish Intergovernmental Conference ( BIIGC ) and the British-Irish Council ( BIC ) ( Strand 3 of the Good Friday Agreement ) .
It also seeks to ‘ expand and develop ’ mechanisms for engagement between the Irish parliament , the Northern Ireland Assembly , the UK parliament and the devolved assemblies in Scotland and Wales .
It pledges to prioritise regular bilateral engagements between both governments across all @ @ @ @ @ @ @ governments in Wales and Scotland .
In short , the new programme for government provides a detailed plan that guides policy in the context of UK ’ s departure from the EU for the next 4 years , if not longer .
The second reason the programme is noteworthy is its sensitivity to unionist concerns .
Unionists have tended to perceive that Irish governments facilitate nationalist aims and that the BIIGC increases Irish interference in Northern Ireland .
UK governments also have tended to downplay the BIIGC and have posited bilateral frameworks outside @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the post-Brexit period .
Therefore , it is noteworthy that the Shared Island document and the new unit in the Department of the Taoiseach do not refer to a united Ireland .
The document frequently refers to the aim of building consensus for a shared island .
In addition , the document , although it mentions the BIIGC , does so towards the end and it does so alongside new bilateral frameworks outside the Good Friday Agreement .
It also frequently refers to working with the Northern Ireland Executive and the UK government @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will not go over the heads of the Executive .
It is also striking that the above features were emphasised more strongly in the final draft than in the April draft .
The draft document stated that the new unit in the Department of the Taoiseach seeks to build a ‘ united ’ island .
The final document states that it seeks to build a ‘ shared ’ island .
Thus , the document deliberately separates reconciliation and pragmatic cooperation from a united Ireland .
By so doing , contrary to some nationalist @ @ @ @ @ @ @ aimed to achieve unification by parallel consent of both communities , it does not undermine the Good Friday Agreement ’ s stipulation that unification must occur if a majority of the Northern Ireland electorate ( 51 % ) support it .
“ Dáil Éireann – Election of An Taoiseach – 27 June 2020 ” by Houses of the Oireachtas is licensed under CC BY

an Taioseach Micheál Martin
On the grand coalition’s approach to the Irish future, the Trinity academic Etain Tannam has noticed important changes in the final version of the Programme for Government
The final version in June differed quite significantly from the draft version in April.
The 2020 Programme for Government provides a detailed long-term plan and creates a new unit in the Department of the Taoiseach to ‘work towards a consensus on a shared island..
The 2020 Programme for Government provides a detailed long-term plan and creates a new unit in the Department of the Taoiseach to ‘work towards a consensus on a shared island’. It seeks to energise the North-South Ministerial Council (strand 2 of the Good Friday Agreement), as well as the British-Irish Intergovernmental Conference (BIIGC) and the British-Irish Council (BIC) (Strand 3 of the Good Friday Agreement). It also seeks to ‘expand and develop’ mechanisms for engagement between the Irish parliament, the Northern Ireland Assembly, the UK parliament and the devolved assemblies in Scotland and Wales. It pledges to prioritise regular bilateral engagements between both governments across all sectors and to deepen relations with devolved governments in Wales and Scotland. In short, the new programme for government provides a detailed plan that guides policy in the context of UK’s departure from the EU for the next 4 years, if not longer.
The second reason the programme is noteworthy is its sensitivity to unionist concerns. Unionists have tended to perceive that Irish governments facilitate nationalist aims and that the BIIGC increases Irish interference in Northern Ireland. UK governments also have tended to downplay the BIIGC and have posited bilateral frameworks outside the Good Friday Agreement to deal with the post-Brexit period. Therefore, it is noteworthy that the Shared Island document and the new unit in the Department of the Taoiseach do not refer to a united Ireland. The document frequently refers to the aim of building consensus for a shared island. In addition, the document, although it mentions the BIIGC, does so towards the end and it does so alongside new bilateral frameworks outside the Good Friday Agreement. It also frequently refers to working with the Northern Ireland Executive and the UK government, presumably to reassure unionists that it will not go over the heads of the Executive. It is also striking that the above features were emphasised more strongly in the final draft than in the April draft.
The draft document stated that the new unit in the Department of the Taoiseach seeks to build a ‘united’ island. The final document states that it seeks to build a ‘shared’ island. Thus, the document deliberately separates reconciliation and pragmatic cooperation from a united Ireland. By so doing, contrary to some nationalist criticism of the 1st draft that it aimed to achieve unification by parallel consent of both communities, it does not undermine the Good Friday Agreement’s stipulation that unification must occur if a majority of the Northern Ireland electorate (51%) support it.
“Dáil Éireann – Election of An Taoiseach – 27 June 2020” by Houses of the Oireachtas is licensed under CC BY


sluggerotoole--2020-07-02--Customs? Of course not.. but Checks are another matter.  Is this what “frictionless” means?

The Guardian ’ s Lisa O ’ Caroll has been leaked a “ sensitive ” HMRC paper revealing that “ firms in Great Britain will be obliged to complete three rounds of customs , security and transit forms on all goods .
The electronic documents will need to be completed whether there is a Brexit trade deal or not and will apply to all suppliers .
Praising the Guardian for its revelations , the Alliance MP Stephen Farry tweets : UKG should be providing such info directly .
This document only addresses some of the issues .
Businesses and others @ @ @ @ @ @ @ failed to address this at PMQs yesterday .
“ Exactly six months from today , the Northern Ireland protocol will sadly come into operation .
The Government have already recognised that it will involve checks and infrastructure with regard to regulation , which the Prime Minister knows is different from customs .
The business community is desperately seeking answers as to how the processes will work in detail .
Will he commit to providing that clarity before the end of the summer ?
It is very clear from the existing text of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ remains , a part of the customs territory of the United Kingdom .
There should be unfettered access between all parts of the United Kingdom , and that is what we are going to ensure.
” The document declares that “ to achieve customs control , we need to ensure that all goods are presented and declared to customs.
” Under a new “ Goods Vehicle Movement Service ” ( GVMS ) system , hauliers or the owners of the freight will be obliged to pre-lodge three types of electronic paperwork before getting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as Liverpool or Cairnryan in Scotland to Northern Ireland .
The first paperwork applying to suppliers is an import declaration form setting out the customs code or codes for all the goods being transported to Northern Ireland .
Second , the supplier will have to complete a safety and security declaration , paperwork that is currently waived on all goods being sold within the EU ’ s single market .
Suppliers will then have to provide their truckers with a transit accompanying document ( TAD ) which must remain with the vehicle at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ guaranteed that the load that departs Great Britain is the same as the one arrives… HMRC is planning to streamline the system so that the three elements can be collated and pre-lodged with the authorities , who will then generate a “ goods movement reference ” number or GMR for the haulier to present to the ferry operator .
This will demonstrate that the cargo is being processed by customs and give port authorities information on how to treat arrivals .
Some trucks will be given the green light to their destination , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tariffs if they are making an onward journey to the Republic of Ireland and those carrying food , drink and animal products will be subjected to health and diseases checks .
Business leaders in Northern Ireland have been pleading with the government for this detail since last October , when the special arrangements for Northern Ireland were agreed between the UK and the EU .
But because the prime minister subsequently insisted there would be no checks it became politically challenging to detail the new procedures until last month , when Michael Gove @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Sources say HMRC has told business representatives they plan to trial the new system in November , which they feel is perilously close to January ’ s full implementation deadline .
The procedures will not apply on goods going from Northern Ireland to GB .
HMRC said it would “ ensure ” the new processes would be “ light touch via electronic submission ” and would “ impose the minimum possible burden ” on traders .
A government spokesman said : “ Our approach , welcomed by businesses , ensures that Northern @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the whole UK market and that there will be no tariffs for internal UK trade in any circumstances ” .

The Guardian’s Lisa O’Caroll has been leaked a “ sensitive” HMRC paper revealing that “firms in Great Britain will be obliged to complete three rounds of customs, security and transit forms on all goods. The electronic documents will need to be completed whether there is a Brexit trade deal or not and will apply to all suppliers.
Praising the Guardian for its revelations, the Alliance MP Stephen Farry tweets:
UKG should be providing such info directly. This document only addresses some of the issues. Businesses and others need full answers urgently. PM shamefully failed to address this at PMQs yesterday.
Stephen Farry (North Down) (Alliance)
“Exactly six months from today, the Northern Ireland protocol will sadly come into operation. The Government have already recognised that it will involve checks and infrastructure with regard to regulation, which the Prime Minister knows is different from customs. The business community is desperately seeking answers as to how the processes will work in detail. Will he commit to providing that clarity before the end of the summer?
The Prime Minister
It is very clear from the existing text of the protocol that Northern Ireland is, and remains, a part of the customs territory of the United Kingdom. There should be unfettered access between all parts of the United Kingdom, and that is what we are going to ensure.”
The document declares that “to achieve customs control, we need to ensure that all goods are presented and declared to customs.”
Under a new “Goods Vehicle Movement Service” (GVMS) system, hauliers or the owners of the freight will be obliged to pre-lodge three types of electronic paperwork before getting on a ferry from British ports such as Liverpool or Cairnryan in Scotland to Northern Ireland.
The first paperwork applying to suppliers is an import declaration form setting out the customs code or codes for all the goods being transported to Northern Ireland.
Second, the supplier will have to complete a safety and security declaration, paperwork that is currently waived on all goods being sold within the EU’s single market.
Suppliers will then have to provide their truckers with a transit accompanying document (TAD) which must remain with the vehicle at all times so the EU can be guaranteed that the load that departs Great Britain is the same as the one arrives…
HMRC is planning to streamline the system so that the three elements can be collated and pre-lodged with the authorities, who will then generate a “goods movement reference” number or GMR for the haulier to present to the ferry operator.
This will demonstrate that the cargo is being processed by customs and give port authorities information on how to treat arrivals.
Some trucks will be given the green light to their destination, others may have to be processed for tariffs if they are making an onward journey to the Republic of Ireland and those carrying food, drink and animal products will be subjected to health and diseases checks.
Business leaders in Northern Ireland have been pleading with the government for this detail since last October, when the special arrangements for Northern Ireland were agreed between the UK and the EU.
But because the prime minister subsequently insisted there would be no checks it became politically challenging to detail the new procedures until last month, when Michael Gove confirmed there would be checks after all.
Sources say HMRC has told business representatives they plan to trial the new system in November, which they feel is perilously close to January’s full implementation deadline.
The procedures will not apply on goods going from Northern Ireland to GB.
HMRC said it would “ensure” the new processes would be “light touch via electronic submission” and would “impose the minimum possible burden” on traders.
A government spokesman said: “Our approach, welcomed by businesses, ensures that Northern Ireland will benefit from unfettered access to the whole UK market and that there will be no tariffs for internal UK trade in any circumstances”.