sluggerotoole--2020-10-11--The garden is where I think and where I try to put negative thoughts to bed…

I have a tree growing in my garden christened the ‘ tree of love ’ .
It was planted as two small saplings and when the bark was young and still flexible , I twisted their skinny limbs around each other and left them to it .
Over the past couple of years , with the amount of hugging that ’ s gone on , the saplings have merged into one and in so doing have become a talking point for passing walkers on our country road .
People ask me how it was achieved and I say that it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ their own devices I believe that most living things , human or otherwise , are disposed to give comfort and succour to each other .
You could say it ’ s naïve but it ’ s a belief I ’ m trying desperately to hang on to during these uncertain and difficult times .
Not everyone is fortunate enough to have a substantial garden like mine , so I appreciate the fact that I ’ m blessed .
But look up any dictionary and you will find that the definition of the word @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a rich well cultivated region ’ to ‘ a container ( such as a window box ) planted with usually a variety of small plants ’ .
Better still , take a look at a few synonyms : yard , bed , oasis , patch , patio and discover that with the addition of even the smallest leafy offering , most folk can create , quite easily , a garden of wonderfulness of their very own .
Our garden began life as a bite out of a field .
I was clueless about @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be planted because in my younger days I had paid no attention to the example set by my parents in their small garden in Portadown .
In those days , potato drills were simply obstacles for my sister and I to leap over on our pretend horses and later , the line of fir trees at the back , were convenient camouflage for snatching a sneaky cigarette after school .
So , when confronted with a blank canvass , little knowledge and diminished funds , I had no option but to depend on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ quite a long while .
Consequently , I know where practically every plant and every tree began their journey into adulthood and consider them to be as much a part of the history of my family as our children .
Just to be clear , I mean that in the nicest possible way kids .
Most ( but not all ) of my plantings have names .
Some are reminders of events , some are tokens of appreciation for particular people in my life , and some are anonymous in their origins , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by kind benefactors when the garden looked more like a wasteland than a cacophony of blossom .
My mum ’ s favourite rose , Rosa Mundi ( main photo ) , has finally settled into its new surroundings after transportation from her garden in Fivemiletown when she died ( although I can still almost feel her reluctance for the disturbance speaking to me through the soil ) .
From a bog on an island in Fermanagh dad arrived in my garden as a bendy beech , accompanied by a clump of snowdrops from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ warm in the spring .
Two silver birches , still growing strongly now and reaching their way steadily to heaven , were planted after 9/11when it seemed that nothing would ever grow the same again .
And the willows and oaks , all named after friends who shared my cancer but were not so lucky as me , continue to sing to me on windy and desolate days .
Gradually this garden has become its own storybook ; the words , sentences , paragraphs and chapters written by me thus far , but @ @ @ @ @ @ @ after I ’ m gone .
But our garden has not only been about the of planting vegetation .
Most of the family ’ s pets have found a final home here and with them the reminder of how important those relationships were for our children and us – the understanding that how you treat animals often reflects upon how you treat your fellow human beings .
Rabbits – Floppy , Loppy and Flip Flop ( I know ) , are laid to rest within an ear ’ s width of each other @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sleeps beneath the faithfully fruiting branches of a plum tree .
Lately , I buried the stiff little body of a jackdaw chick under a fence and sadly listened as the parents , like some sad double act , thistled their lament into empty space for days afterwards .
The garden is where I think and where I try to put negative thoughts to bed .
On days awash with unpleasantness on social media or television and I ’ ve just become so tired of it all , I go outside to whack @ @ @ @ @ @ @ very bad words that would normally never leave my mouth .
It helps .
Or if I really want to save myself from the vagaries of this crazy and unpredictable world I actually climb a tree and sit in its branches watching the world go by .
Even if you haven ’ t got your own tree to climb , just sitting under the canopy of trees in a public park can work just as well .
What lessons have I learned from these garden blessings of mine ?
I ’ ve learned @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , hand the secateurs out the kitchen window to my husband and not ask what he ’ s going to do with them ( and then to watch as he chops seven feet , seven feet !
off a cotoneaster I ’ d been diligently training for seven years ) .
I ’ ve learned to love the feel of soil between my naked fingers and to accept that my hands show every single year of my age because of it .
I ’ ve learned to understand that after I ’ ve @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cutting , shovelling , digging and everything else in my garden , very few people will notice the changes but it really doesn ’ t matter .
Most of all , perhaps , I ’ ve learned that nature can heal so many of our human ailments if only we would give it a chance .
I think of lockdown earlier in the year when the weather was kinder to us than usual and more families than I can remember were walking the roads together , connecting with each other and stopping to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was hugging itself in someone ’ s garden .
And tomorrow , even as autumn marches in more earnestly , the pheasants will be waiting for their breakfast at my door .
The leaves on the trees will shudder a last defiance against the inevitable tug of winter and the hedgerows will have lost a little touch more of their greenness .
Yet there is always the promise of new life waiting beneath the earth and if you plant some bulbs now ( right now – today ! )
either in a pot @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s for certain ; that come the spring , your garden of loveliness will repay you in ways that will surprise with its warmth and optimism .
Like a great big hug .

I have a tree growing in my garden christened the ‘tree of love’. It was planted as two small saplings and when the bark was young and still flexible, I twisted their skinny limbs around each other and left them to it. Over the past couple of years, with the amount of hugging that’s gone on, the saplings have merged into one and in so doing have become a talking point for passing walkers on our country road. People ask me how it was achieved and I say that it’s simple really – left to their own devices I believe that most living things, human or otherwise, are disposed to give comfort and succour to each other. You could say it’s naïve but it’s a belief I’m trying desperately to hang on to during these uncertain and difficult times.
Not everyone is fortunate enough to have a substantial garden like mine, so I appreciate the fact that I’m blessed. But look up any dictionary and you will find that the definition of the word ‘garden’ ranges from, ‘a rich well cultivated region’ to ‘a container (such as a window box) planted with usually a variety of small plants’. Better still, take a look at a few synonyms: yard, bed, oasis, patch, patio and discover that with the addition of even the smallest leafy offering, most folk can create, quite easily, a garden of wonderfulness of their very own.
Our garden began life as a bite out of a field. I was clueless about where, when and how things should be planted because in my younger days I had paid no attention to the example set by my parents in their small garden in Portadown. In those days, potato drills were simply obstacles for my sister and I to leap over on our pretend horses and later, the line of fir trees at the back, were convenient camouflage for snatching a sneaky cigarette after school.
So, when confronted with a blank canvass, little knowledge and diminished funds, I had no option but to depend on the goodwill and generosity of others for quite a long while. Consequently, I know where practically every plant and every tree began their journey into adulthood and consider them to be as much a part of the history of my family as our children. Just to be clear, I mean that in the nicest possible way kids.
Most (but not all) of my plantings have names. Some are reminders of events, some are tokens of appreciation for particular people in my life, and some are anonymous in their origins, having been carefully placed on my doorstep by kind benefactors when the garden looked more like a wasteland than a cacophony of blossom. My mum’s favourite rose, Rosa Mundi (main photo), has finally settled into its new surroundings after transportation from her garden in Fivemiletown when she died (although I can still almost feel her reluctance for the disturbance speaking to me through the soil). From a bog on an island in Fermanagh dad arrived in my garden as a bendy beech, accompanied by a clump of snowdrops from the home farm, keeping his feet warm in the spring. Two silver birches, still growing strongly now and reaching their way steadily to heaven, were planted after 9/11when it seemed that nothing would ever grow the same again. And the willows and oaks, all named after friends who shared my cancer but were not so lucky as me, continue to sing to me on windy and desolate days. Gradually this garden has become its own storybook; the words, sentences, paragraphs and chapters written by me thus far, but hopefully carried on by someone else long after I’m gone.
But our garden has not only been about the of planting vegetation. Most of the family’s pets have found a final home here and with them the reminder of how important those relationships were for our children and us – the understanding that how you treat animals often reflects upon how you treat your fellow human beings. Rabbits – Floppy, Loppy and Flip Flop (I know), are laid to rest within an ear’s width of each other and our collie dog, Meg, sleeps beneath the faithfully fruiting branches of a plum tree. Lately, I buried the stiff little body of a jackdaw chick under a fence and sadly listened as the parents, like some sad double act, thistled their lament into empty space for days afterwards.
The garden is where I think and where I try to put negative thoughts to bed. On days awash with unpleasantness on social media or television and I’ve just become so tired of it all, I go outside to whack a few weeds and bellow out some very bad words that would normally never leave my mouth. It helps. Or if I really want to save myself from the vagaries of this crazy and unpredictable world I actually climb a tree and sit in its branches watching the world go by. Even if you haven’t got your own tree to climb, just sitting under the canopy of trees in a public park can work just as well.
What lessons have I learned from these garden blessings of mine? I’ve learned to never, ever (ever), hand the secateurs out the kitchen window to my husband and not ask what he’s going to do with them (and then to watch as he chops seven feet, seven feet! off a cotoneaster I’d been diligently training for seven years). I’ve learned to love the feel of soil between my naked fingers and to accept that my hands show every single year of my age because of it. I’ve learned to understand that after I’ve spent untold hours strimming, pruning, cutting, shovelling, digging and everything else in my garden, very few people will notice the changes but it really doesn’t matter. Most of all, perhaps, I’ve learned that nature can heal so many of our human ailments if only we would give it a chance. I think of lockdown earlier in the year when the weather was kinder to us than usual and more families than I can remember were walking the roads together, connecting with each other and stopping to ask about a dopey looking tree that was hugging itself in someone’s garden.
And tomorrow, even as autumn marches in more earnestly, the pheasants will be waiting for their breakfast at my door. The leaves on the trees will shudder a last defiance against the inevitable tug of winter and the hedgerows will have lost a little touch more of their greenness. Yet there is always the promise of new life waiting beneath the earth and if you plant some bulbs now (right now – today!) either in a pot or in the soil, one thing’s for certain; that come the spring, your garden of loveliness will repay you in ways that will surprise with its warmth and optimism. Like a great big hug.


sluggerotoole--2020-10-12--Surviving Covid has to be done together

Surviving Covid has to be done together

As cases of Covid rise , the Northern Ireland Executive meets today , reportedly to consider a circuit breaker to reduce community transmission , as concerns continue to be raised about the effect of lockdowns and shielding on mental health and jobs .
We know that mental health is seriously affected by lockdown , businesses with fewer customers are likely to fail or at least require redundancies to survive , and the prioritisation of Covid has had a serious effect on elective Health Service treatments .
Yet , if steps are not taken to reduce the rate of transmission of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ side of the Health Service collapsing under the burden of Covid cases requiring hospital treatment , and the likelihood of losing our friends and family to Covid is higher .
So how to handle that , as people protest about their lack of liberty and peddle conspiracy theories long disproven , blaming the mainstream media ?
Perhaps this statement is a place to start .
What are we being asked to do ?
To keep 2m apart where possible , and to wear a face covering in shops , banks , public offices @ @ @ @ @ @ @ either difficult or impossible to catch our coughs and sneezes .
To not have parties in our houses .
But what about student culture ?
Why should my family not be able to gather in a socially distanced way because of idiots ?
The answer is simple .
The law has to be black and white – the impact on me visiting my parents and grandma is because the idiots can weasel out of a vaguer restriction .
Culture doesn ’ t override responsibilities to others .
The Twelfth was cancelled because the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ slogan earlier in lockdown was “ We all must do it to get through it.
” It was true , although the grammar pedant in me thinks it should have been “ We must all do it to get therough it ” which in any case scans better .
But is it enough to just socially distance and wear your mask when asked , because keeping the rules is the thing most likely to keep day to day life as normal as possible and preserve jobs ?
Mental health says no , it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ says we can only get through if we are looking out for each other .
The challenge is to be intentional .
To remember each other .
To deliberately keep in touch with those we can ’ t see face to face , so they know they are remembered and are still part of our lives .
To be there , even if you can ’ t give someone a hug .
And that ’ s not enough .
There are our neighbours as well as our friends and relatives .
Jo and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ because I had a cough and headache , and our neighbours couldn ’ t have done more for us .
It ’ s not easy .
I could do better , I ’ ve got friends I need to spend more time on the phone with because I haven ’ t been able to see them for a long time .
But the alternative is far worse .
A Health Service so overwhelmed by Covid that it can not help us with anything much else we need in the way we have come @ @ @ @ @ @ @ damaging businesses and jobs .
Continued forced separation to prevent us passing the virus onto vulnerable friends and relatives .
But only if we look outwards to serve others can we get through this .
Only when we put others first , when we put their freedoms on an equal footing with ours , only when we take the necessary steps to prevent us passing on Covid if we catch it , will we have liberty .

As cases of Covid rise, the Northern Ireland Executive meets today, reportedly to consider a circuit breaker to reduce community transmission, as concerns continue to be raised about the effect of lockdowns and shielding on mental health and jobs.
We know that mental health is seriously affected by lockdown, businesses with fewer customers are likely to fail or at least require redundancies to survive, and the prioritisation of Covid has had a serious effect on elective Health Service treatments. Yet, if steps are not taken to reduce the rate of transmission of Covid, we risk the acute treatment side of the Health Service collapsing under the burden of Covid cases requiring hospital treatment, and the likelihood of losing our friends and family to Covid is higher.
So how to handle that, as people protest about their lack of liberty and peddle conspiracy theories long disproven, blaming the mainstream media?
Perhaps this statement is a place to start.
Liberty that denies freedom to others is no liberty at all
What are we being asked to do? To keep 2m apart where possible, and to wear a face covering in shops, banks, public offices and other places where social distancing is either difficult or impossible to catch our coughs and sneezes. To not have parties in our houses.
But what about student culture? Why should my family not be able to gather in a socially distanced way because of idiots?
The answer is simple. The law has to be black and white – the impact on me visiting my parents and grandma is because the idiots can weasel out of a vaguer restriction. Culture doesn’t override responsibilities to others. The Twelfth was cancelled because the Orange Order recognised this responsibility.
The slogan earlier in lockdown was “We all must do it to get through it.” It was true, although the grammar pedant in me thinks it should have been “We must all do it to get through it” which in any case scans better.
But is it enough to just socially distance and wear your mask when asked, because keeping the rules is the thing most likely to keep day to day life as normal as possible and preserve jobs?
Mental health says no, it isn’t enough.
Mental health says we can only get through if we are looking out for each other.
The challenge is to be intentional. To remember each other. To deliberately keep in touch with those we can’t see face to face, so they know they are remembered and are still part of our lives. To be there, even if you can’t give someone a hug.
And that’s not enough. There are our neighbours as well as our friends and relatives. Jo and I self-isolated in March for two weeks because I had a cough and headache, and our neighbours couldn’t have done more for us.
It’s not easy. I could do better, I’ve got friends I need to spend more time on the phone with because I haven’t been able to see them for a long time.
But the alternative is far worse. A Health Service so overwhelmed by Covid that it cannot help us with anything much else we need in the way we have come to expect. Repeated circuit breakers seriously damaging businesses and jobs. Continued forced separation to prevent us passing the virus onto vulnerable friends and relatives.
But only if we look outwards to serve others can we get through this. Only when we put others first, when we put their freedoms on an equal footing with ours, only when we take the necessary steps to prevent us passing on Covid if we catch it, will we have liberty.


sluggerotoole--2020-10-13--Build it back, build it better – NICON Health and Social Care conference…

Last week I attended NICON 2020 usually held in La Mon hotel this conference was held virtually and although it is essentially an “ industry ” event , all stakeholders were welcome .
Which included yours truly who as a service user was allocated a ticket through my involvement with The Patient Client Council The Department of Health website describes NICON as “ a Health and Social Care platform which exists to influence policy , support and brief members , inform and influence the media and politicians about key issues in the HSC , and to connect members with other @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Ireland.
” A little aside from me here , in case you weren ’ t aware we don ’ t have the NHS in NI .
All aspects of our health care are delivered by Health and Social Care .
So all your clapping on Thursday evenings and rainbows in your windows for the NHS were I ’ m sure appreciated by all our HSC staff , irrespective of the different acronym .
It ’ s the thought that counts .
The keynote speakers included Robin Swann , Arlene Foster and Michelle O @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this conference was an event of impact and importance locally .
Of course since the conference things are moving apace and at the time of writing we await a decision from The Hill about how we move forward with restrictions and any other way we can combat the worrying rise in cases .
My local town of Castlewellan seems to be in the grip of a severe outbreak with many businesses having to close for deep cleaning as staff have tested positive .
From DOH website ; “ Health Minister Robin Swann today @ @ @ @ @ @ @ his continued commitment to delivering the transformation agenda , he also thanked HSC staff for their ongoing dedication throughout the Covid 19 pandemic .
Health Minister Robin Swann was addressing the 10th annual Northern Ireland Confederation Conference .
Speaking at the conference the Health Minister said : “ We face many challenges as we enter this difficult winter period , but we have already achieved so much , learned so much , and shown our resilience and compassion for each other .
And we will do so again.
” “ As we come @ @ @ @ @ @ @ focus on partnership working , on supporting and valuing our workforce , on the importance of strong and supportive leadership , on delivering quality services , and on enhancing our capacity and capabilities within e-health ; more important now than ever in this time of home working , telephone triage and contact tracing .
“ Whilst we must face the challenges that lie ahead , we must also continue to rebuild ; to transform our services in a way that ensures they are here for those who need them today , tomorrow , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to 300 participants from the HSC and wider stakeholder groups took part in this year ’ s online event .
Delegates attending the conference are drawn from across the HSC , and also include key strategic partners from the community and voluntary sector , health and social care experts and practitioners.
” Some of the presentations included topics such as Build it Back , Build it Better which was the conference theme .
The topic of most interest to me was the Reconfiguring of our Urgent and Emergency Services .
My local A @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for some time , prior to that it was operating with reduced opening hours .
Recently it was announced that it won ’ t open in October as planned .
It is now being repurposed as a consultant led Urgent Care Centre , whatever that is .
The press release about “ rebuilding Downe Urgent and Emergency Care Services ” was wordy , baffling , cold and distinctly dissatisfactory .
It is widely recognised that our services are under pressure and that A & E departments are in high demand .
Recent figures @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in A & E were more appropriate to other areas of urgent care .
But people need to know how to access the right services and where is best to go .
I ’ m sure no one wants to go to A & E unnecessarily or to waste anyone ’ s time , but the signposting is simply not clear enough .
Any community feels an emotional attachment to their local hospital as its a facility they rely on .
We need clarity and reassurance , not some bland press release .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ d like to recommend membership of the aforementioned Patient and Client Council .
I hadn ’ t heard about the PCC until I needed some advice about being badly let down by a health care provider .
PCC is an important part of our health care system but I hadn ’ t heard of them until I needed help .
I found them online , got the necessary support and since then I ’ ve been a member .
It ’ s one way to become involved in supporting our health care system @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Change is happening , whether you like it or not .
Health and Social Care is at breaking point and in need of transformation and reform .
If you want your voice to be heard then now is the time to step up .
Join local groups , stay informed and demand more from your local elected representatives .
I felt that the overarching theme of NICON was one of positivity and I was impressed by the drive towards building a genuinely new and improved version of health and social care .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ the face of COVID-19 .
The positivity did spill over a bit and at times became a little bit too self-congratulatory .
I was reminded of my time in the civil service , where the higher grades seemed to have a very rosy view of the organisation that those of us on the front line didn ’ t share .
Unmuting the voice of service users was mentioned several times .
Time will tell if HSC will pay lip service to that particular soundbite , or if patients will ever truly be brought @ @ @ @ @ @ @ amazing health system .
“ banksy – peaceful hearts doctor – 3 ” by Eva Blue is licensed under CC BY

Last week I attended NICON 2020 usually held in La Mon hotel this conference was held virtually and although it is essentially an “industry” event, all stakeholders were welcome. Which included yours truly who as a service user was allocated a ticket through my involvement with The Patient Client Council
The Department of Health website describes NICON as “a Health and Social Care platform which exists to influence policy, support and brief members, inform and influence the media and politicians about key issues in the HSC, and to connect members with other stakeholders both inside and outside of Northern Ireland.” A little aside from me here, in case you weren’t aware we don’t have the NHS in NI. All aspects of our health care are delivered by Health and Social Care. So all your clapping on Thursday evenings and rainbows in your windows for the NHS were I’m sure appreciated by all our HSC staff, irrespective of the different acronym. It’s the thought that counts.
The keynote speakers included Robin Swann, Arlene Foster and Michelle O’Neill, so you can see this conference was an event of impact and importance locally. Of course since the conference things are moving apace and at the time of writing we await a decision from The Hill about how we move forward with restrictions and any other way we can combat the worrying rise in cases. My local town of Castlewellan seems to be in the grip of a severe outbreak with many businesses having to close for deep cleaning as staff have tested positive.
From DOH website; “Health Minister Robin Swann today highlighted the challenges facing HSC services and his continued commitment to delivering the transformation agenda, he also thanked HSC staff for their ongoing dedication throughout the Covid 19 pandemic.
Health Minister Robin Swann addressing the 10th annual Northern Ireland Confederation Conference
Health Minister Robin Swann was addressing the 10th annual Northern Ireland Confederation Conference. Speaking at the conference the Health Minister said: “We face many challenges as we enter this difficult winter period, but we have already achieved so much, learned so much, and shown our resilience and compassion for each other. And we will do so again.”
“As we come together today, we have a renewed focus on partnership working, on supporting and valuing our workforce, on the importance of strong and supportive leadership, on delivering quality services, and on enhancing our capacity and capabilities within e-health; more important now than ever in this time of home working, telephone triage and contact tracing.
“Whilst we must face the challenges that lie ahead, we must also continue to rebuild; to transform our services in a way that ensures they are here for those who need them today, tomorrow, and for generations to come.”
Up to 300 participants from the HSC and wider stakeholder groups took part in this year’s online event. Delegates attending the conference are drawn from across the HSC, and also include key strategic partners from the community and voluntary sector, health and social care experts and practitioners.”
Some of the presentations included topics such as Build it Back, Build it Better which was the conference theme. The topic of most interest to me was the Reconfiguring of our Urgent and Emergency Services. My local A&E in Downpatrick has been closed for some time, prior to that it was operating with reduced opening hours. Recently it was announced that it won’t open in October as planned. It is now being repurposed as a consultant led Urgent Care Centre, whatever that is. The press release about “rebuilding Downe Urgent and Emergency Care Services” was wordy, baffling, cold and distinctly dissatisfactory.
It is widely recognised that our services are under pressure and that A&E departments are in high demand. Recent figures show that 65% of cases arriving in A&E were more appropriate to other areas of urgent care. But people need to know how to access the right services and where is best to go. I’m sure no one wants to go to A&E unnecessarily or to waste anyone’s time, but the signposting is simply not clear enough. Any community feels an emotional attachment to their local hospital as its a facility they rely on. We need clarity and reassurance, not some bland press release.
Before I end this piece I’d like to recommend membership of the aforementioned Patient and Client Council. I hadn’t heard about the PCC until I needed some advice about being badly let down by a health care provider. PCC is an important part of our health care system but I hadn’t heard of them until I needed help. I found them online, got the necessary support and since then I’ve been a member. It’s one way to become involved in supporting our health care system and have some input in making changes. Change is happening, whether you like it or not. Health and Social Care is at breaking point and in need of transformation and reform. If you want your voice to be heard then now is the time to step up. Join local groups, stay informed and demand more from your local elected representatives.
I felt that the overarching theme of NICON was one of positivity and I was impressed by the drive towards building a genuinely new and improved version of health and social care. Our HSC did an amazing job in the face of COVID-19. The positivity did spill over a bit and at times became a little bit too self-congratulatory. I was reminded of my time in the civil service, where the higher grades seemed to have a very rosy view of the organisation that those of us on the front line didn’t share.
Unmuting the voice of service users was mentioned several times. Time will tell if HSC will pay lip service to that particular soundbite, or if patients will ever truly be brought on board as partners in transforming our amazing health system.
“banksy – peaceful hearts doctor – 3” by Eva Blue is licensed under CC BY


sluggerotoole--2020-10-13--Can Martin’s coalition show what purposeful bridge building can offer the island?

I see Jay has beaten me to the punch on today ’ s announcement in the Republic ’ s budget of a Shared Island fund .
I generally agree with his headline that north-south cooperation finally has a budget , but I would also point out it has a lot of bases to cover .
However , the point is to use this money to foster new investment and development opportunities on a North/South basis .
And the Belfast Agreement ( more observed in the breach than followed ) is to be the strategic gold standard in order to “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the island ” .
Much of the things that can be done through cooperation can garner much higher sums for projects that ( unlike the A5 ) can bring much broader agreement .
That ’ s a key principle here .
Incidentally , it ’ s also why the idea that anyone could produce a useful white paper without cooperation is just a wee bit mad .
Whilst the idea for A Shared Island Unit may have come as an idea from Northern Irish Green party leader Claire Bailey , this substantial @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Fáil Taoiseach ’ s long criticism that Northern Ireland had been left largely to its own devices by previous administrations .
According to Martin , the new half-billion Euros will complement existing all-island commitments ...
It ’ s a good start , and there is still much to be filled out .
Some of its objectives are pretty broad and aspirational .
The named projects are almost all cross border and relevant mostly to nationalist border communities in the south and west of Northern Ireland .
To some extent , its long term @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on the degree to which it is seen to benefit all the people of Northern Ireland , not just those living on or near the border .
Post-Brexit , it will need to work right across the community and the Irish Sea .
This is nothing new .
In fact , it is something that Martin has been talking about for most of the last ten years .
And even when things looked at their bleakest just after his party ’ s rout in February 2011 , Martin was laying out for Northern @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the people arguments .
So unafraid has he been to call out Sinn Féin on undermining partners in government ( nationalist as well as unionist ) and bad mouth wider unionism , even when it brought him no electoral advantage , that he has a level of trust with Northern Irish Unionists unrivaled by almost any recent Taoiseach .
In the context of the biggest spending budget for many years , aimed at reflation of health education and housing budgets , the Shared Island Unit is a key part of the vision @ @ @ @ @ @ @ point blank refuses glory in many hundreds of ( relatively recent ) deaths of Northern Irish countrymen .
Few in the south these days factor northern matters into their political calculations .
However , the relative silence from the previous administration over the collapse of Stormont by Sinn Féin was seen by northern unionists as a tactic endorsement of that party ’ s coercive approach to the 1998 settlement .
Contrary to the border poll line pushed by Mary Lou McDonald and others , they misconstrue the effects of such aggressive lines on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ( and less strident ) alternatives , like the Greens and Alliance , which is to put them on the defensive over the union .
Political Dublin ’ s views Brexit as desertion , and in its wilder moments , Sinn Féin ’ s three-year desertion of Stormont as a quid pro quo and the very least Unionism deserves , forgetting of course that scratching an itch to dump southern ‘ civil war politics ’ it may buying into a new all-island version .
And yet , in the sort of polarised Ireland @ @ @ @ @ @ @ poll , and no reconciliation , other than conversion to their own fundamentalist , unrepentant and bloody version of the truth , that they were right and the Prods were wrong .
An odd sort of nativism to sit so primly beside modern Ireland .
Micheál Martin ’ s predecessor as Taoiseach , Brian Cowen prefigured Martin ’ s vision of the future in fairly concrete terms , but I think it fairly represents the mainstream Fianna Fáil view of island politics , post the Belfast Agreement… The dangerous ( if wromantic ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ people vote for populists out of frustration with the empty talk and promises from the mainstream .
But tackling the real problems that people face ( like income inequality and social mobility dropping like a stone ) can carry weight .
Given the ideas , resources and a broad buy-in by people on both sides of the community in Northern Ireland and across the border , real change will change real hearts and minds over time .
But first , there ’ s a lot of scorched earth out there to try and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ had their chance ( bringing us little more than tokenism , rows over flags , parades and other culture war items ) now it is up to pragmatists like Martin ( and his FG Finance Minister Pascal Donohoe ) to show what focus and determination is capable of offering instead .
Photo by Pixabay is licensed under CC0

I see Jay has beaten me to the punch on today’s announcement in the Republic’s budget of a Shared Island fund. I generally agree with his headline that north-south cooperation finally has a budget, but I would also point out it has a lot of bases to cover.
However, the point is to use this money to foster new investment and development opportunities on a North/South basis. And the Belfast Agreement (more observed in the breach than followed) is to be the strategic gold standard in order to “strengthen links across society on both parts of the island”.
Much of the things that can be done through cooperation can garner much higher sums for projects that (unlike the A5) can bring much broader agreement. That’s a key principle here. Incidentally, it’s also why the idea that anyone could produce a useful white paper without cooperation is just a wee bit mad.
Whilst the idea for A Shared Island Unit may have come as an idea from Northern Irish Green party leader Claire Bailey, this substantial resourcing is a vindication of the Fianna Fáil Taoiseach’s long criticism that Northern Ireland had been left largely to its own devices by previous administrations.
According to Martin, the new half-billion Euros will complement existing all-island commitments...
…including to the North/South Bodies, to cross-border health services and the Reconciliation Fund, as well as the significant support for peace and progress on the island that will be delivered through the EU PEACE PLUS programme.
It’s a good start, and there is still much to be filled out. Some of its objectives are pretty broad and aspirational. The named projects are almost all cross border and relevant mostly to nationalist border communities in the south and west of Northern Ireland.
To some extent, its long term success (or otherwise) will depend on the degree to which it is seen to benefit all the people of Northern Ireland, not just those living on or near the border. Post-Brexit, it will need to work right across the community and the Irish Sea.
This is nothing new. In fact, it is something that Martin has been talking about for most of the last ten years. And even when things looked at their bleakest just after his party’s rout in February 2011, Martin was laying out for Northern Irish audiences his own pluralist Republican unity of the people arguments.
So unafraid has he been to call out Sinn Féin on undermining partners in government (nationalist as well as unionist) and bad mouth wider unionism, even when it brought him no electoral advantage, that he has a level of trust with Northern Irish Unionists unrivaled by almost any recent Taoiseach.
In the context of the biggest spending budget for many years, aimed at reflation of health education and housing budgets, the Shared Island Unit is a key part of the vision thing for Martin, a Republican who point blank refuses glory in many hundreds of (relatively recent) deaths of Northern Irish countrymen.
Few in the south these days factor northern matters into their political calculations. However, the relative silence from the previous administration over the collapse of Stormont by Sinn Féin was seen by northern unionists as a tactic endorsement of that party’s coercive approach to the 1998 settlement.
Contrary to the border poll line pushed by Mary Lou McDonald and others, they misconstrue the effects of such aggressive lines on those leaving political unionism for more liberal (and less strident) alternatives, like the Greens and Alliance, which is to put them on the defensive over the union.
Political Dublin’s views Brexit as desertion, and in its wilder moments, Sinn Féin’s three-year desertion of Stormont as a quid pro quo and the very least Unionism deserves, forgetting of course that scratching an itch to dump southern ‘civil war politics’ it may buying into a new all-island version.
And yet, in the sort of polarised Ireland SF propose, there is no border poll, and no reconciliation, other than conversion to their own fundamentalist, unrepentant and bloody version of the truth, that they were right and the Prods were wrong. An odd sort of nativism to sit so primly beside modern Ireland.
Micheál Martin’s predecessor as Taoiseach, Brian Cowen prefigured Martin’s vision of the future in fairly concrete terms, but I think it fairly represents the mainstream Fianna Fáil view of island politics, post the Belfast Agreement…
We have now all decided: let’s go on a journey and forget about the destination – the destination isn’t really important in that respect. We can all work for what it is we would like ideally to see, but this is not something that can be forced or imposed upon people on either side of the island.
The dangerous (if wromantic) abstractions must end. Good and moral people vote for populists out of frustration with the empty talk and promises from the mainstream. But tackling the real problems that people face (like income inequality and social mobility dropping like a stone) can carry weight.
Given the ideas, resources and a broad buy-in by people on both sides of the community in Northern Ireland and across the border, real change will change real hearts and minds over time. But first, there’s a lot of scorched earth out there to try and make fertile again.
The fundamentalists have had their chance (bringing us little more than tokenism, rows over flags, parades and other culture war items) now it is up to pragmatists like Martin (and his FG Finance Minister Pascal Donohoe) to show what focus and determination is capable of offering instead.
Photo by Pixabay is licensed under CC0


sluggerotoole--2020-10-13--North/South Cooperation now has a budget…

This week the Irish government unveiled their budget with an emphasis on housing and all of the social issues with flow from that most basic social need .
What peeked my own interest was a commitment to providing €500 million to cross-border projects .
The ‘ Shared Island Initiative ’ is a much publicised personal project of the Taoiseach Michael Martin .
RTE are reporting that the new unit within his department will be overseeing this expenditure .
In terms of the overall Irish budget this is not a drop in the ocean but it still isn ’ t what @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are ready for reunification ” where the economist mooted flagship projects such as a new port between Dublin and Belfast .
RTE have also reported that among the list of specific projects this funding is expected to support , that Magee in Derry will be a recipient .
Exactly what this will be has not yet been detailed but it will inevitably involve co-operation with the Stormont executive .
Specifically the Minister for the Economy Diane Dodds .
Although the much disrupted A5 project is also mentioned ( “ Monaghan to Derry Motorway @ @ @ @ @ @ @ how a friendlier face to Dublin in the guise of Nichola Mallon could get this off the ground any time soon as it is riddled with legal challenges and currying favour with campaigners Jim Allister voiced his disgust at supposed “ raping of the countryside ” that this would bring .
Whether Mr Allister has suddenly found a love for the environment is for others to ponder , but its fascinating that in an effort to win votes in the western borderlands that unionist politicians play the old card of hardcore NIMBYism in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ dual carriageways .
It would be foolish for anyone in a border area to ever oppose cross border co-operation and hence the TUV do extremely poorly in these areas .
Diane Dodds is unlikely to leap at the opportunity to secure funding in a bid to link up Letterkenny Institute of Technology with the Ulster University Magee campus .
Her department officials announced early on in the formation of the executive that Ulster had not renewed a business case for the nearly 20 years in the planning post graduate entry medical school .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ podium to announce that the competence for the project was suddenly within the executive office .
This project will start next year with 70 places and a plan to phase this up .
Minister Swann was able to quickly secure 80 extra places at the QUB medical school without delay .
The funding was not part of any cross border initiative , it was £18m taken from the NI budget and served no long term strategic purpose other than training more doctors in Belfast .
The politics of just scaling up numbers at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on Conor Murphy ’ s spreadsheet are not what devolution is about .
Devolution is supposed to be about finding creative policy solutions to the problems of local areas .
They are about bringing some subsidiary to the administration of vital public services .
The long running failure to get creative on cross border projects and access cross border funding is shameful .
Communities on both sides of the frontier could benefit from better joined up thinking .
I have followed the Magee story with intensity because it is emblematic of a stagnant @ @ @ @ @ @ @ within NI politics .
Perhaps it is time for the executive to have a cross border unit within one of its own ministries ?
Photo by Free-Photos is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA

This week the Irish government unveiled their budget with an emphasis on housing and all of the social issues with flow from that most basic social need. What peeked my own interest was a commitment to providing €500 million to cross-border projects.
The ‘Shared Island Initiative’ is a much publicised personal project of the Taoiseach Michael Martin. RTE are reporting that the new unit within his department will be overseeing this expenditure. In terms of the overall Irish budget this is not a drop in the ocean but it still isn’t what David McWilliams calls “showing Europe you are ready for reunification” where the economist mooted flagship projects such as a new port between Dublin and Belfast.
RTE have also reported that among the list of specific projects this funding is expected to support, that Magee in Derry will be a recipient. Exactly what this will be has not yet been detailed but it will inevitably involve co-operation with the Stormont executive. Specifically the Minister for the Economy Diane Dodds. Although the much disrupted A5 project is also mentioned (“Monaghan to Derry Motorway”) it is hard to see how a friendlier face to Dublin in the guise of Nichola Mallon could get this off the ground any time soon as it is riddled with legal challenges and currying favour with campaigners Jim Allister voiced his disgust at supposed “raping of the countryside” that this would bring.
Whether Mr Allister has suddenly found a love for the environment is for others to ponder, but its fascinating that in an effort to win votes in the western borderlands that unionist politicians play the old card of hardcore NIMBYism in a place without any rail services or dual carriageways. It would be foolish for anyone in a border area to ever oppose cross border co-operation and hence the TUV do extremely poorly in these areas. Diane Dodds is unlikely to leap at the opportunity to secure funding in a bid to link up Letterkenny Institute of Technology with the Ulster University Magee campus.
Her department officials announced early on in the formation of the executive that Ulster had not renewed a business case for the nearly 20 years in the planning post graduate entry medical school. Michelle O’Neill used the Covid podium to announce that the competence for the project was suddenly within the executive office. This project will start next year with 70 places and a plan to phase this up. Minister Swann was able to quickly secure 80 extra places at the QUB medical school without delay. The funding was not part of any cross border initiative, it was £18m taken from the NI budget and served no long term strategic purpose other than training more doctors in Belfast.
The politics of just scaling up numbers at the QUB MBC and moving around figures on Conor Murphy’s spreadsheet are not what devolution is about. Devolution is supposed to be about finding creative policy solutions to the problems of local areas. They are about bringing some subsidiary to the administration of vital public services.
The long running failure to get creative on cross border projects and access cross border funding is shameful. Communities on both sides of the frontier could benefit from better joined up thinking. I have followed the Magee story with intensity because it is emblematic of a stagnant, structurally failing and opportunity missing complex within NI politics. Perhaps it is time for the executive to have a cross border unit within one of its own ministries?
Photo by Free-Photos is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA


sluggerotoole--2020-10-14--Singing Struggle and Agreement – tune in tonight at 7.30pm and hear the GFA in song and a panel as p

Singing Struggle and Agreement – tune in tonight at 7.30pm and hear the GFA in song and a panel as part of Slugger’s contribution to #BIAF20

Culture , in its many varied forms , can provide a window through which to view society , and also a mirror to reflect back what we might not have noticed about ourselves .
We often connect emotionally with pieces of music .
Songs become sporting team anthems .
Music can be a passionate cry of celebration or bellow of despair .
One Sunday morning last November , I received an email from a mutual friend saying that a former NIO official had set part of the Belfast Agreement to music .
But it hadn ’ t been sung on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ or voted upon .
Did I know anyone who might tackle it ?
It was clearly kind of quirky , unexpected and potentially thought-provoking event that Peter O ’ Neill at the Imagine !
Belfast Festival of Ideas and Politics in March was indeed bound to support .
I would build a panel around remembering the talks leading up to the Agreement , and Spark Opera volunteered to take on the music .
Then imminent lockdown made rehearsals impossible and the event was shelved .
But much like on off on off Northern @ @ @ @ @ @ @ revived and regrouped with the help of Belfast International Arts Festival in partnership with Spark Opera and Slugger O ’ Toole .
We ’ d big plans for 90-strong socially distanced audiences to enjoy the even more distanced singers in the cavernous St Anne ’ s Cathedral .
That too was stymied .
The word ‘ struggle ’ in the event title began to take on additional layers of meaning .
Yet , festivals – and the arts community in general – are incredibly resilient .
So tonight at 7.30pm , you ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the 25 singers ( recorded on Saturday spread out across Fisherwick Presbyterian ’ s pews ) perform a variety of songs of struggle , and one of agreement ( its Northern Irish and Irish première ) , and listen to the panel ( recorded yesterday ) .
Clare Salters set the opening preamble of the Belfast Agreement to music , subtitling her piece “ p E A C E in 4/4 time ” , a musical cryptogram referring to piano ( soft ) and the first four rising notes of the piece .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ Support is more human and less legal than the chapters that follow .
It ’ s a verbatim piece , so all of the words in the right order , including tricky lists of cross border institutions that have got to be held in tension with each other , musically and in real life .
The musical programme includes five other pieces that shout out against tyranny , oppression , attack , and explore identity and solidarity .
Spark Opera ’ s Hearth Chorus were joined by NI Opera ’ s Associate Artists @ @ @ @ @ @ @ baton of Keith McAlister .
Present to film the pieces – the sound engineer and me the only audience – it was moving to witness live music on that scale after so many months when buskers seemed to be all that remained .
Woven through the music is a panel discussion .
Mark Devenport recalls the months he spent reporting from the car park outside Castle Buildings and the moment when Stephen Grimason arrived with a first full copy of the Agreement .
Monica McWilliams tells the story from inside the negotiations , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ used to watch politicians negotiating on the airwaves outside the window .
And there ’ s a story of David Ervine becoming Tarzan to quickly exit from a CNN interview conducted up a tree .
We hear from composer Clare Salters , and Spark Opera ’ s Kate Guelke gives the music context and also reflects on how a political agreement shaped her life .
The event is free ( donations welcomed ) .
You can register online at the Belfast International Arts Festival to get the link to the 7.30pm showing .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ ll find some cutting edge online theatre – Macbeth and The University of Wonder & Imagination – alongside a very rich programme of free interviews and talks ( including Stuart Maconie , Jenni Murray and Lennie Goodings ) .
You ’ ll also find music , films , and you can book a slot to visit the RUA Annual Exhibition in the Ulster Museum .
Full programme available on the Belfast International Arts Festival website .

Culture, in its many varied forms, can provide a window through which to view society, and also a mirror to reflect back what we might not have noticed about ourselves. We often connect emotionally with pieces of music. Songs become sporting team anthems. Music can be a passionate cry of celebration or bellow of despair.
One Sunday morning last November, I received an email from a mutual friend saying that a former NIO official had set part of the Belfast Agreement to music. But it hadn’t been sung on the island on which it was negotiated or voted upon. Did I know anyone who might tackle it?
It was clearly kind of quirky, unexpected and potentially thought-provoking event that Peter O’Neill at the Imagine! Belfast Festival of Ideas and Politics in March was indeed bound to support. I would build a panel around remembering the talks leading up to the Agreement, and Spark Opera volunteered to take on the music.
Then imminent lockdown made rehearsals impossible and the event was shelved.
But much like on off on off Northern Ireland peace talks, the event has revived and regrouped with the help of Belfast International Arts Festival in partnership with Spark Opera and Slugger O’Toole. We’d big plans for 90-strong socially distanced audiences to enjoy the even more distanced singers in the cavernous St Anne’s Cathedral. That too was stymied. The word ‘struggle’ in the event title began to take on additional layers of meaning.
Yet, festivals – and the arts community in general – are incredibly resilient. So tonight at 7.30pm, you’ll be able to watch and hear the 25 singers (recorded on Saturday spread out across Fisherwick Presbyterian’s pews) perform a variety of songs of struggle, and one of agreement (its Northern Irish and Irish première), and listen to the panel (recorded yesterday).
Clare Salters set the opening preamble of the Belfast Agreement to music, subtitling her piece “p E A C E in 4/4 time”, a musical cryptogram referring to piano (soft) and the first four rising notes of the piece. The Agreement’s opening Declaration of Support is more human and less legal than the chapters that follow. It’s a verbatim piece, so all of the words in the right order, including tricky lists of cross border institutions that have got to be held in tension with each other, musically and in real life.
The musical programme includes five other pieces that shout out against tyranny, oppression, attack, and explore identity and solidarity. Spark Opera’s Hearth Chorus were joined by NI Opera’s Associate Artists and a couple of guests under the baton of Keith McAlister. Present to film the pieces – the sound engineer and me the only audience – it was moving to witness live music on that scale after so many months when buskers seemed to be all that remained.
Woven through the music is a panel discussion. Mark Devenport recalls the months he spent reporting from the car park outside Castle Buildings and the moment when Stephen Grimason arrived with a first full copy of the Agreement. Monica McWilliams tells the story from inside the negotiations, the narrow corridors, and the TV used to watch politicians negotiating on the airwaves outside the window. And there’s a story of David Ervine becoming Tarzan to quickly exit from a CNN interview conducted up a tree. We hear from composer Clare Salters, and Spark Opera’s Kate Guelke gives the music context and also reflects on how a political agreement shaped her life.
The event is free (donations welcomed). You can register online at the Belfast International Arts Festival to get the link to the 7.30pm showing.
Elsewhere in the festival programme, you’ll find some cutting edge online theatre – Macbeth and The University of Wonder & Imagination – alongside a very rich programme of free interviews and talks (including Stuart Maconie, Jenni Murray and Lennie Goodings). You’ll also find music, films, and you can book a slot to visit the RUA Annual Exhibition in the Ulster Museum. Full programme available on the Belfast International Arts Festival website.


sluggerotoole--2020-10-14--Covid border measures look like rehearsals for the breakup of the Union

Only in corridors of power in London has the latest opinion poll on support for Scottish independence registered a modicum of shock to disturb the prevailing confusion .
The analysis of the results by Sir John Curtice contains only one small note of comfort for the Union cause .
A new poll from Ipsos MORI for STV has suggested that 58 % now say that they would vote Yes in another independence referendum .
Just 42 % state that they would vote No , and thereby back staying in the Union .
What conclusions can we draw ?
No previous @ @ @ @ @ @ @ so high .
More importantly this is the ninth poll in a row since June to put Yes ahead .
On average , these polls have put Yes on 54 % , No on 46 % .
It is the first time in Scottish polling history that support for independence has consistently outstripped backing for staying in the Union .
However , we should be careful about drawing the conclusion from today ’ s poll that support for independence has now risen further .
A poll from Savanta ComRes released over the weekend @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at the same time as today ’ s headline grabbing poll from Ipsos MORI , put support for independence at 53 % , one point down on the company ’ s previous poll in August .
We will need further evidence before we will know whether the higher level of support for Yes in today ’ s poll represents no more than the kind of random variation that we might expect in the polls given that Yes are well ahead , or whether it signals a further significant shift in favour of independence @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s poll provides valuable further clues as to why Yes are now ahead .
This cry for the heart comes from the Spectator ’ s Scotland correspondent Alex Massie .
It poses a dilemma for the Scotsman who is the editor of the Spectator Fraser Nelson , who is a critical friend of Boris Johnson .
…For no ministry that actually cared about the United Kingdom ’ s long-term integrity would behave as this ministry has done .
The recklessness would be breathtaking if it were not for the suspicion that it is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ scandalous indifference .
Time and again , I have been told that the government ‘ gets it ’ , that henceforth it will be paying attention , and every time this is revealed as a worthless commitment that doesn ’ t even rise to the level of a promise .
My postbag confirms the impact of this .
Each week , and sometimes more frequently than that , I hear from people who never had to think about their no vote in 2014 but now find themselves contemplating their preferences should there be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of them would still vote no , but with markedly less enthusiasm than before ; others suggest they are too depressed to vote at all ; some find themselves surprised , and perhaps even a little alarmed , to discover they can imagine voting yes .
Some have already changed their mind , deciding getting out is the only realistic way forward .
These are company directors , farmers , lawyers , academics and if Boris Johnson is losing people like this — folk with plenty to lose from independence — then you @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with other kinds of voter .
No wonder it is now possible to find Scottish Tory politicians who will sigh as they pour themselves a late-night Laphroaig and confess that , miserably , it ’ s all over .
Pessimism has always been an important part of the Tory sensibility but , right now , this pessimism is warranted .
It is so even if the SNP is still unable to answer important but basic questions about the realities of independence .
The first decade of the new state ’ s life would @ @ @ @ @ @ @ But then the last ten years have been pretty ropey ones for the UK and that colours people ’ s views too .
For nearly a decade now , politicians and media figures in London have persistently underestimated both the appeal of independence and its possibility .
It has been put in a box marked ‘ unthinkable ’ and so it need not be thought about .
This complacency , this lack of imagination , has always been a significant problem for Unionism and yet , despite the obvious evidence before them , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to grasp reality , let alone grapple with it .
Flag-waving is not the answer .
Competent government in London and a prosperous United Kingdom is the best available response to this challenge .
For a long , long time , independence has been a nice idea .
If all other things were equal it would even be an attractive one .
But all other things have never , quite , been equal and so the risks of independence have always been considered greater than the risks of Union .
It might have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ too high a cost .
Well , that calculation of risk and reward is changing .
There has never been a time when ‘ all things ’ have ever looked so equal .
That has certain obvious consequences and the opinion polls are merely reporting what is obvious on the ground .
For this is a three-legged crisis for Unionism .
Covid is one leg and Johnson is another but the third , and most significant , leg is Brexit .
It can not be repeated too frequently that Brexit is the sole @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
No Brexit , no material change in circumstances that might justify revisiting the national question while the embers of 2014 still glow .
Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP would still campaign for independence but they wouldn ’ t have any good argument for demanding a second referendum .
Well , however disagreeable you may think it , they have a decent one now .
( It remains decent even if you also think ‘ once in a generation ’ should mean something too . )
Once Brexit was pursued , and especially @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at all or any cost , some of this crisis became inevitable .
For Brexit must happen even though two parts of the United Kingdom — Scotland and Northern Ireland — voted against it .
But the manner in which Brexit is happening , with little regard for those who rejected it and still less interest in the privileges enjoyed by the devolved administrations , is placing the Union under renewed strain .
The detail is less important than the sentiment .
Few people , I suspect , are truly exercised by the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , indeed , by the precise manner in which the Internal Market Bill may or may not impinge upon the devolved parliaments .
But , to put it in architectural terms , they do care about the look of the post-Brexit house the government intends to build .
Perhaps this is a blip or a phase or just a passing flirtation .
I would prefer it if this were the case but the numbers strongly suggest it is not .
Even now , most politicians at Westminster — and especially most so-called Conservative @ @ @ @ @ @ @ You might think the survival of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland should be considered a modestly important issue but plainly very few Tories at Westminster really think it is .
So Douglas Ross was right to lambast his colleagues and it was miserably revealing that his speech received so little attention .
As he argued , correctly , if so-called Unionists do not care about the Union and if they mistakenly believe independence would come at little cost — psychological as well as civic — to England then they @ @ @ @ @ @ @ make the case for that independence .
With friends like these , who needs the SNP ?
There is something melancholy about all of this and a keening sense of Scottish Unionists being , as I have observed before , abandoned by the people they mistakenly considered their co-religionists .
Verily , what do they know of the United Kingdom , who only England know ?
Boris , Brexit and Covid is a combination of potent toxicity .
Any two of those would have been dangerous ; adding the third ingredient may prove @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , it may not do so on Boris Johnson ’ s watch but the conditions for its demise will have been created during his hapless spell at the helm .
Minister for the Union ?
What larks , eh ?
Meanwhile the lockdowns in Scotland and Wales provide a sort of rehearsal for breakup People from Scotland have been warned against travelling to Blackpool after it was linked to a “ large and growing ” number of Scottish coronavirus cases .
People in parts of the UK with high rates of Covid-19 will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ plans announced by Wales ’ first minister .
Mark Drakeford said he would go ahead if the prime minister did not impose travel restrictions in England .

Photo:The Scotsman
Only in corridors of power in London has the latest opinion poll on support for Scottish independence registered a modicum of shock to disturb the prevailing confusion.
The analysis of the results by Sir John Curtice contains only one small note of comfort for the Union cause.
A new poll from Ipsos MORI for STV has suggested that 58% now say that they would vote Yes in another independence referendum. Just 42% state that they would vote No, and thereby back staying in the Union. What conclusions can we draw? No previous poll has put ever support for independence so high.
More importantly this is the ninth poll in a row since June to put Yes ahead. On average, these polls have put Yes on 54%, No on 46%.
It is the first time in Scottish polling history that support for independence has consistently outstripped backing for staying in the Union.
However, we should be careful about drawing the conclusion from today’s poll that support for independence has now risen further.
A poll from Savanta ComRes released over the weekend, the interviewing for which took place at the same time as today’s headline grabbing poll from Ipsos MORI, put support for independence at 53%, one point down on the company’s previous poll in August.
We will need further evidence before we will know whether the higher level of support for Yes in today’s poll represents no more than the kind of random variation that we might expect in the polls given that Yes are well ahead, or whether it signals a further significant shift in favour of independence.
In any event, today’s poll provides valuable further clues as to why Yes are now ahead.
This cry for the heart comes from the Spectator’s Scotland correspondent Alex Massie. It poses a dilemma for the Scotsman who is the editor of the Spectator Fraser Nelson, who is a critical friend of Boris Johnson.
…For no ministry that actually cared about the United Kingdom’s long-term integrity would behave as this ministry has done. The recklessness would be breathtaking if it were not for the suspicion that it is, in fact, a product of scandalous indifference. Time and again, I have been told that the government ‘gets it’, that henceforth it will be paying attention, and every time this is revealed as a worthless commitment that doesn’t even rise to the level of a promise.
My postbag confirms the impact of this. Each week, and sometimes more frequently than that, I hear from people who never had to think about their no vote in 2014 but now find themselves contemplating their preferences should there be a second plebiscite on independence. Many of them would still vote no, but with markedly less enthusiasm than before; others suggest they are too depressed to vote at all; some find themselves surprised, and perhaps even a little alarmed, to discover they can imagine voting yes. Some have already changed their mind, deciding getting out is the only realistic way forward. These are company directors, farmers, lawyers, academics and if Boris Johnson is losing people like this — folk with plenty to lose from independence — then you may imagine how he’s faring with other kinds of voter.
No wonder it is now possible to find Scottish Tory politicians who will sigh as they pour themselves a late-night Laphroaig and confess that, miserably, it’s all over. Pessimism has always been an important part of the Tory sensibility but, right now, this pessimism is warranted. It is so even if the SNP is still unable to answer important but basic questions about the realities of independence. The first decade of the new state’s life would be astringent to say the least. But then the last ten years have been pretty ropey ones for the UK and that colours people’s views too.
For nearly a decade now, politicians and media figures in London have persistently underestimated both the appeal of independence and its possibility. It has been put in a box marked ‘unthinkable’ and so it need not be thought about. This complacency, this lack of imagination, has always been a significant problem for Unionism and yet, despite the obvious evidence before them, few Tory politicians have shown themselves prepared to grasp reality, let alone grapple with it.
Flag-waving is not the answer. Competent government in London and a prosperous United Kingdom is the best available response to this challenge. For a long, long time, independence has been a nice idea. If all other things were equal it would even be an attractive one. But all other things have never, quite, been equal and so the risks of independence have always been considered greater than the risks of Union. It might have some advantages but these would come at too high a cost.
Well, that calculation of risk and reward is changing. There has never been a time when ‘all things’ have ever looked so equal. That has certain obvious consequences and the opinion polls are merely reporting what is obvious on the ground.
For this is a three-legged crisis for Unionism. Covid is one leg and Johnson is another but the third, and most significant, leg is Brexit. It cannot be repeated too frequently that Brexit is the sole reason this argument has substance right now. No Brexit, no material change in circumstances that might justify revisiting the national question while the embers of 2014 still glow. Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP would still campaign for independence but they wouldn’t have any good argument for demanding a second referendum. Well, however disagreeable you may think it, they have a decent one now. (It remains decent even if you also think ‘once in a generation’ should mean something too.)
Once Brexit was pursued, and especially once it was decided to pursue it at all or any cost, some of this crisis became inevitable. For Brexit must happen even though two parts of the United Kingdom — Scotland and Northern Ireland — voted against it. But the manner in which Brexit is happening, with little regard for those who rejected it and still less interest in the privileges enjoyed by the devolved administrations, is placing the Union under renewed strain.
The detail is less important than the sentiment. Few people, I suspect, are truly exercised by the internal workings of the withdrawal agreement or, indeed, by the precise manner in which the Internal Market Bill may or may not impinge upon the devolved parliaments. But, to put it in architectural terms, they do care about the look of the post-Brexit house the government intends to build.
Perhaps this is a blip or a phase or just a passing flirtation. I would prefer it if this were the case but the numbers strongly suggest it is not.
Even now, most politicians at Westminster — and especially most so-called Conservative ones — do not get it. You might think the survival of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland should be considered a modestly important issue but plainly very few Tories at Westminster really think it is. So Douglas Ross was right to lambast his colleagues and it was miserably revealing that his speech received so little attention.
As he argued, correctly, if so-called Unionists do not care about the Union and if they mistakenly believe independence would come at little cost — psychological as well as civic — to England then they are both deluding themselves and helping to make the case for that independence. With friends like these, who needs the SNP?
There is something melancholy about all of this and a keening sense of Scottish Unionists being, as I have observed before, abandoned by the people they mistakenly considered their co-religionists. Verily, what do they know of the United Kingdom, who only England know?
Boris, Brexit and Covid is a combination of potent toxicity. Any two of those would have been dangerous; adding the third ingredient may prove lethal. If the United Kingdom dies, it may not do so on Boris Johnson’s watch but the conditions for its demise will have been created during his hapless spell at the helm.
Minister for the Union? What larks, eh?
Meanwhile the lockdowns in Scotland and Wales provide a sort of rehearsal for breakup
People from Scotland have been warned against travelling to Blackpool after it was linked to a “large and growing” number of Scottish coronavirus cases.
People in parts of the UK with high rates of Covid-19 will be banned from travelling to Wales under plans announced by Wales’ first minister.
Mark Drakeford said he would go ahead if the prime minister did not impose travel restrictions in England.


sluggerotoole--2020-10-14--It looks like a deal but what sort of deal? And it’ll go down to the wire

The idea of extended deadlines right down to a supposed last minute will hardly surprise anybody in Northern Ireland .
We ’ ve lived with them for a generation .
Taking a tour round comment on the Brexit cliffhanger , the prospects for a deal are looking good .
British predictions of going to the wire for a decision by the big beasts of Merkel and Macron look like being fulfilled .
But that doesn ’ t mean an optimal deal for British interests .
The odds of a UK/EU free trade agreement are – in my estimation – quite @ @ @ @ @ @ @ don ’ t suppose anyone will admit to that .
The outstanding issues ( how often the fishing quota is renegotiated , enforcement mechanisms for state aid limits ) are so conspicuously… amenable to compromise , that it would be quite an achievement to muck it up .
That said , we live in an Age of Incompetence , so I guess anything is possible .
Possibly more significant than the call this eve between the PM and the European Commission Président about post # Brexit negotiations.. will be the intra EU discussion @ @ @ @ @ @ @ about how much to compromise to get a deal with UK Mujtaba Rahman is the head of Eurasia Group ’ s Europe practice and the author of POLITICO ‘ s Beyond the Bubble column .
This week ’ s crunch European Council summit on Brexit isn ’ t a showdown between the U.K. and the EU .
Whether or not there ’ s significant progress toward a deal depends on who wins a less visible — and often forgotten — tug-of-war between Paris and Berlin .
The chancellery and the Elysée have had @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Perhaps surprisingly , Berlin has been the one to constantly fret about the strategic and geopolitical consequences of the U.K. ’ s departure , which it sees as a big loss for Germany and the EU .
This has led Chancellor Angela Merkel to lean on the side of a polite , civilized and constructive process with London throughout the divorce and trade negotiations .
As one senior German official who knows Merkel well told me , her thinking on Brexit can be summed up as : “ Better if in , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ French President Emmanuel Macron ’ s stance on Brexit has been more defensive , and more influenced by his domestic politics .
Facing competitive elections to the European Parliament in 2019 , Macron was of the view that the three credible outcomes from divorce negotiations — an inferior deal , no deal , or a referendum and reversal — would all help him in his contest against Marine Le Pen .
Each would nicely demonstrate the cost , or difficulty , of leaving the EU .
This thinking is reinforced by the Elysée @ @ @ @ @ @ @ an opportunity for France and the EU .
In an EU of 27 , France is positioned to become the foreign and security hegemon to counterbalance Germany ’ s economic dominance .
It is no coincidence that the Macron ’ s vision of the EU — a “ geopolitical ” union unafraid to call out the “ brain death ” of NATO and seek “ strategic autonomy ” from the rest of the world — prioritizes those areas where Paris has a comparative advantage over Berlin .
The Elysée also believes the U.K. @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Against conventional wisdom , senior French officials point out that France has less at stake in avoiding a no-deal scenario than , say , Ireland , Germany or the Netherlands , which are all much bigger players in EU-U.K. trade .
These differences explain why France remains one of the hard-line EU member countries on Brexit , less willing to compromise on one of the biggest unresolved issues — fish .
The reasons for this are narrowly electoral too .
Macron has always been unwilling to sell out French fishing communities .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ even more as public confidence in his government ’ s handling of the coronavirus crisis has fallen .
But fish is not the only reason why Macron — a “ scrapper ” rather than a peacemaker — may balk at Brexit terms acceptable to Germany and others .
France is determined that the level playing field rules imposed on Britain should be tough and enforceable .
Macron ’ s belief in a “ strategic Europe ” is economic as well as diplomatic .
His vision of a European industrial and innovative powerhouse , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and China , is incompatible with a future few-rules Britain that would act as an “ unsinkable aircraft carrier ” for continued American or Chinese economic domination of the EU27 .
Meanwhile , Merkel does not want an internal EU civil war over Brexit on what remains of her watch .
“ Merkel will want her legacy , ” said the senior German official who knows her well .
“ And her legacy will be that she won ’ t have allowed a split in Europe.
” This tension in Berlin — between @ @ @ @ @ @ @ — will be critical to the pressure Merkel eventually brings to bear on Macron .
She will be supported by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen , who privately wants a deal , to ensure that her own political priorities and legacy , notably on the green transition and digital economy , are not overtaken by a no-deal crisis .
But von der Leyen also owes her fidelity to Macron : She is where she is because he put her forward as Commission president when post-election negotiations deadlocked last year .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this week , but eventually — will be the vanity or antagonism of small differences .
By that , I mean seemingly small divergences that are not so small from differing national viewpoints .
Macron can not afford to seem petty .
Nor can he afford to talk a strong EU game and then fold — as he has in the past .
Difficult decisions await .
The U.K. may make it easy for Europe by continuing to drag its feet on state aid , allowing Barnier to brief EU leaders that London @ @ @ @ @ @ @ senior EU officials even hope for this outcome .
They do so in the knowledge that a difficult reckoning between Paris and Berlin otherwise looms — and that the outcome is far from obvious .
Jill Rutter of the Institute for Government The real risk from the summit is not that it unlocks the route to a deal but that one or more member states dig in and make Barnier ’ s task harder .
The UK has always had a naïve faith that political leaders will see the woods for the trees @ @ @ @ @ @ @ many ways , easier for the Commissioners , with the benefits of their ‘ unelected ’ status who are freer to do that .
Will Johnson then pull the no deal trigger ?
Unless the summit veers madly off course , that looks unlikely .
His last semi-deadline was July , and earlier Frost had said end-September .
It is only in recent weeks , since the end of the ninth formal negotiating round , that there have been real signs of the sides moving .
That was signalled last week by Lord @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and by Michel Barnier .
If there were more focus in the UK on Brexit , there could be political pressure from the backbenches on the PM to make good his threat .
But the Government is already showing signs of panic about the unsurprising state of unreadiness of British business .
Two weeks ago Michael Gove , the minister in charge of Brexit preparations , unveiled his ‘ reasonable worst case scenario ’ and introduced the brave new world of Kent Access Permits .
That was in the light of research that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ another extension – last year ’ s lesson was to ignore Government and expect an extension .
A new communications campaign has been launched to convey the need to prepare more starkly than the ‘ check , change , go ’ campaign managed with its emphasis on the new opportunities rather than the new red tape .
The European Parliament has said it will not ratify if the UK has failed to remove the offending law-breaking clauses from the Internal Market Bill ( it is possible they may have been removed for them @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to the Commons ) .
It is likely that the sort of deal now in prospect will not require ratification by national parliaments as well – but even so the EU negotiators do not want to rush their parliament .
The UK Government also seems to think it will need primary legislation to put some aspects of the agreement into UK law – but as long as it can keep its backbenchers on board that can be done very quickly .
EU negotiators suggest no later than the first few days of November @ @ @ @ @ @ @ few more weeks , even into early December .
Charles Grant of the Centre for European Reform Macron will have to soften his line on fish , a bit , if there is going to be a deal .
I suspect many other capitals will encourage him to do so , discreetly .
But as he showed 18 months ago over the Brexit extension he is not afraid to stand alone The EU wants to dedramatise the ( summit ) meeting : ie , this was Boris Johnson ’ s deadline not the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are Council draft conclusions on Covid 19 , Africa + climate – but nothing on Brexit .
That won ’ t come till after a morning mtg of EU ambassadors and is expected to be bland Barnier said there has been movement on the level playing field ( LPF ) , including state aid , and referenced David Frost ’ s statement to the House of Lords EU Cttee last week as movement .
On state aid Barnier ’ s Task Force is looking at a toolbox with four elements : high level @ @ @ @ @ @ @ dispute settlement mechanism + “ autonomous retaliatory ” measures both sides can trigger instead of arbitration if urgent action needed .
uch retaliation could be “ horizontal ” , ie if there ’ s a grave breach one side could take retaliatory measures not just with tariffs but alternatively on road haulage , aviation – if extreme responses were deemed necessary .
Barnier indicated it ’ s unclear if the UK side are willing to go for this toolbox approach .
‘ s understood France ’ s Europe minister Beaune was very hardline @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have told the meeting the French cabinet had discussed no deal planning yesterday .
That ’ s not to say there is no optimism about a deal .
“ People are being cautious .
There is some more optimism around now over the possibility of a deal , but given there ’ s limited time left given the number of [ outstanding ] issues , ” n the Internal Market Bill , Barnier appears to hope that the UK would itself opt to remove the offending clauses rather than have it presented to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Parliament to ratify the treaty , should agreement be reached on an FTA .
So , the summit gets underway on Thursday .
Despite the probable desire by @ eucopresident Charles Michel to dedramatise the Brexit issue as far as possible , all eyes will be on @ EmmanuelMacron ( and other coastal states ) on the fish issue… To recap , Britain ’ s new EU border in numbers : £7bn in new red tape ; 215m extra forms ; 50,000 new form-fillers ; worst-case 7,000-truck queues ; £77m for emergency ferries @ @ @ @ @ @ @ four lorry parks ; £300 fines for HGV drivers entering Kent without “ passport .
Government to install portaloos for drivers on Kent roads in case of Brexit congestion Transport min Rachel MacLean : “ we have detailed plans that we ’ ve worked up for provision of not only portaloos but other facilities for drivers ” Other aspects of the deal may be far from ideal… Britain ’ s car industry risks losing out even if there is a post-Brexit trade deal with the EU , according to documents seen by the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Turkey used in the UK will not be treated as British , so some exports may see higher tariffs .
In a letter , Britain ’ s chief Brexit negotiator says the UK has failed so far to get the car parts deal it wants , and “ obviously can not insist on it ” .
Having enough parts sourced within the UK and EU is key to a free trade deal .
In a letter to the car industry , seen by the BBC , chief negotiator Lord Frost says one of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ components from Japan and Turkey count as British in any deal – has been rejected by the European Commission .
This risks some UK automotive production attracting taxes on trade , known as tariffs , when exported to the EU , even if there is a “ zero tariff ” trade deal struck with the EU .

The idea of extended deadlines right down to a supposed last minute will hardly surprise anybody in Northern Ireland. We’ve lived with them for a generation. Taking a tour round comment on the Brexit cliffhanger, the prospects for a deal are looking good. British predictions of going to the wire for a decision by the big beasts of Merkel and Macron look like being fulfilled. But that doesn’t mean an optimal deal for British interests.
From Peston
The odds of a UK/EU free trade agreement are – in my estimation – quite close to 100%. Though I don’t suppose anyone will admit to that. The outstanding issues (how often the fishing quota is renegotiated, enforcement mechanisms for state aid limits) are so conspicuously… amenable to compromise, that it would be quite an achievement to muck it up. That said, we live in an Age of Incompetence, so I guess anything is possible.
Katya Adler, BBC Europe editor
Possibly more significant than the call this eve between the PM and the European Commission Président about post #Brexit negotiations.. will be the intra EU discussion beginning at this week’s summit about how much to compromise to get a deal with UK
Mujtaba Rahman is the head of Eurasia Group’s Europe practice and the author of POLITICO‘s Beyond the Bubble column.
This week’s crunch European Council summit on Brexit isn’t a showdown between the U.K. and the EU. Whether or not there’s significant progress toward a deal depends on who wins a less visible — and often forgotten — tug-of-war between Paris and Berlin.
The chancellery and the Elysée have had different approaches to Brexit since the start. Perhaps surprisingly, Berlin has been the one to constantly fret about the strategic and geopolitical consequences of the U.K.’s departure, which it sees as a big loss for Germany and the EU.
This has led Chancellor Angela Merkel to lean on the side of a polite, civilized and constructive process with London throughout the divorce and trade negotiations. As one senior German official who knows Merkel well told me, her thinking on Brexit can be summed up as: “Better if in, but if not, then close.”
French President Emmanuel Macron’s stance on Brexit has been more defensive, and more influenced by his domestic politics. Facing competitive elections to the European Parliament in 2019, Macron was of the view that the three credible outcomes from divorce negotiations — an inferior deal, no deal, or a referendum and reversal — would all help him in his contest against Marine Le Pen. Each would nicely demonstrate the cost, or difficulty, of leaving the EU.
This thinking is reinforced by the Elysée’s belief that Brexit is also an opportunity for France and the EU. In an EU of 27, France is positioned to become the foreign and security hegemon to counterbalance Germany’s economic dominance. It is no coincidence that the Macron’s vision of the EU — a “geopolitical” union unafraid to call out the “brain death” of NATO and seek “strategic autonomy” from the rest of the world — prioritizes those areas where Paris has a comparative advantage over Berlin.
The Elysée also believes the U.K. is negotiating from a position of weakness. Against conventional wisdom, senior French officials point out that France has less at stake in avoiding a no-deal scenario than, say, Ireland, Germany or the Netherlands, which are all much bigger players in EU-U.K. trade.
These differences explain why France remains one of the hard-line EU member countries on Brexit, less willing to compromise on one of the biggest unresolved issues — fish.
The reasons for this are narrowly electoral too. Macron has always been unwilling to sell out French fishing communities. But his room for maneuver has diminished even more as public confidence in his government’s handling of the coronavirus crisis has fallen.
But fish is not the only reason why Macron — a “scrapper” rather than a peacemaker — may balk at Brexit terms acceptable to Germany and others. France is determined that the level playing field rules imposed on Britain should be tough and enforceable.
Macron’s belief in a “strategic Europe” is economic as well as diplomatic. His vision of a European industrial and innovative powerhouse, capable of remaining independent from the U.S. and China, is incompatible with a future few-rules Britain that would act as an “unsinkable aircraft carrier” for continued American or Chinese economic domination of the EU27.
Meanwhile, Merkel does not want an internal EU civil war over Brexit on what remains of her watch. “Merkel will want her legacy,” said the senior German official who knows her well. “And her legacy will be that she won’t have allowed a split in Europe.”
This tension in Berlin — between seeking a deal while maintaining EU unity — will be critical to the pressure Merkel eventually brings to bear on Macron. She will be supported by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who privately wants a deal, to ensure that her own political priorities and legacy, notably on the green transition and digital economy, are not overtaken by a no-deal crisis. But von der Leyen also owes her fidelity to Macron: She is where she is because he put her forward as Commission president when post-election negotiations deadlocked last year.
The problem in the end — maybe not this week, but eventually — will be the vanity or antagonism of small differences. By that, I mean seemingly small divergences that are not so small from differing national viewpoints.
Macron cannot afford to seem petty. Nor can he afford to talk a strong EU game and then fold — as he has in the past. Difficult decisions await. The U.K. may make it easy for Europe by continuing to drag its feet on state aid, allowing Barnier to brief EU leaders that London has not moved far enough. Some senior EU officials even hope for this outcome. They do so in the knowledge that a difficult reckoning between Paris and Berlin otherwise looms — and that the outcome is far from obvious.
Jill Rutter of the Institute for Government
The real risk from the summit is not that it unlocks the route to a deal but that one or more member states dig in and make Barnier’s task harder.
The UK has always had a naïve faith that political leaders will see the woods for the trees, without recognising it is, in many ways, easier for the Commissioners, with the benefits of their ‘unelected’ status who are freer to do that.
Will Johnson then pull the no deal trigger? Unless the summit veers madly off course, that looks unlikely. His last semi-deadline was July, and earlier Frost had said end-September.
It is only in recent weeks, since the end of the ninth formal negotiating round, that there have been real signs of the sides moving. That was signalled last week by Lord Frost in two select committee appearances, and by Michel Barnier.
If there were more focus in the UK on Brexit, there could be political pressure from the backbenches on the PM to make good his threat.
But the Government is already showing signs of panic about the unsurprising state of unreadiness of British business. Two weeks ago Michael Gove, the minister in charge of Brexit preparations, unveiled his ‘reasonable worst case scenario’ and introduced the brave new world of Kent Access Permits.
That was in the light of research that suggested over 40% of businesses expected another extension – last year’s lesson was to ignore Government and expect an extension.
A new communications campaign has been launched to convey the need to prepare more starkly than the ‘check, change, go’ campaign managed with its emphasis on the new opportunities rather than the new red tape.
The European Parliament has said it will not ratify if the UK has failed to remove the offending law-breaking clauses from the Internal Market Bill (it is possible they may have been removed for them by the Lords before the bill returns to the Commons).
It is likely that the sort of deal now in prospect will not require ratification by national parliaments as well – but even so the EU negotiators do not want to rush their parliament. The UK Government also seems to think it will need primary legislation to put some aspects of the agreement into UK law – but as long as it can keep its backbenchers on board that can be done very quickly.
EU negotiators suggest no later than the first few days of November. Others think it could slip a few more weeks, even into early December.
Charles Grant of the Centre for European Reform
Macron will have to soften his line on fish, a bit, if there is going to be a deal. I suspect many other capitals will encourage him to do so, discreetly. But as he showed 18 months ago over the Brexit extension he is not afraid to stand alone
Tony Connelly of RTE
The EU wants to dedramatise the (summit) meeting: ie, this was Boris Johnson’s deadline not the EU’s. So far there are Council draft conclusions on Covid 19, Africa + climate – but nothing on Brexit. That won’t come till after a morning mtg of EU ambassadors and is expected to be bland
Barnier said there has been movement on the level playing field (LPF), including state aid, and referenced David Frost’s statement to the House of Lords EU Cttee last week as movement. On state aid Barnier’s Task Force is looking at a toolbox with four elements: high level principles, a strong national regulator, dispute settlement mechanism + “autonomous retaliatory” measures both sides can trigger instead of arbitration if urgent action needed. uch retaliation could be “horizontal”, ie if there’s a grave breach one side could take retaliatory measures not just with tariffs but alternatively on road haulage, aviation – if extreme responses were deemed necessary. Barnier indicated it’s unclear if the UK side are willing to go for this toolbox approach. ‘s understood France’s Europe minister Beaune was very hardline on fisheries. He is said to have told the meeting the French cabinet had discussed no deal planning yesterday.
That’s not to say there is no optimism about a deal. “People are being cautious. There is some more optimism around now over the possibility of a deal, but given there’s limited time left given the number of [outstanding] issues,” n the Internal Market Bill, Barnier appears to hope that the UK would itself opt to remove the offending clauses rather than have it presented to them as a condition for the European Parliament to ratify the treaty, should agreement be reached on an FTA. So, the summit gets underway on Thursday. Despite the probable desire by @eucopresident Charles Michel to dedramatise the Brexit issue as far as possible, all eyes will be on @EmmanuelMacron (and other coastal states) on the fish issue…
The cost to Britain
George Parker FT
To recap, Britain’s new EU border in numbers: £7bn in new red tape; 215m extra forms; 50,000 new form-fillers; worst-case 7,000-truck queues; £77m for emergency ferries; 10 new inland customs sites; four lorry parks; £300 fines for HGV drivers entering Kent without “passport.
Government to install portaloos for drivers on Kent roads in case of Brexit congestion Transport min Rachel MacLean: “we have detailed plans that we’ve worked up for provision of not only portaloos but other facilities for drivers”
Other aspects of the deal may be far from ideal…
Britain’s car industry risks losing out even if there is a post-Brexit trade deal with the EU, according to documents seen by the BBC.
Car parts from Japan and Turkey used in the UK will not be treated as British, so some exports may see higher tariffs.
In a letter, Britain’s chief Brexit negotiator says the UK has failed so far to get the car parts deal it wants, and “obviously cannot insist on it”.
Having enough parts sourced within the UK and EU is key to a free trade deal.
In a letter to the car industry, seen by the BBC, chief negotiator Lord Frost says one of their key priorities – that parts and components from Japan and Turkey count as British in any deal – has been rejected by the European Commission.
This risks some UK automotive production attracting taxes on trade, known as tariffs, when exported to the EU, even if there is a “zero tariff” trade deal struck with the EU.