sluggerotoole--2020-04-27--Schools: Locked down, separately…

Schools: Locked down, separately…

On 12th March , from the steps of the President ’ s Guest House in Washington , Leo Varadkar announced that schools across the Republic of Ireland would be closed to slow the spread of the Covid-19 pandemic .
His statement echoed concerns that had been raised by teaching unions and parents in Northern Ireland and increased pressure on the Assembly to follow suit .
On 18th March , First Minister Arlene Foster declared that NI would by closing all schools with effect from Monday , 23rd March , a decision that was in line with directives issued in England @ @ @ @ @ @ @ days that followed this instruction was revised to permit school premises to re-open in a limited capacity in order to provide services for the children of key workers and vulnerable children ( including those with a statement of educational special needs ) .
As the crisis has evolved , a multitude of local agencies have put aside commercial and professional rivalries and geared up to meet a shared need .
Surgeries , social workers and supermarkets set about co-ordinating their services .
The emergency had also seemingly provided an opportunity for schools of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ famously fractured system to serve the whole of the community – irrespective of faith , community background , gender , perceived academic ability or class .
Instructions from the Department of Education encouraged schools to co-operate and find innovative solutions It would however seem that , even in the face of a threat so unfamiliar and universal that the word ‘ unprecedented ’ seems inadequate , sectoral barriers remain and that , in the era of lockdown , genuine collaboration between schools across the sectarian divide remains something of a no-go area .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ the education system in Northern Ireland seems unable to overcome a parochial preoccupation with maintaining the separation between us and them .
There are just over 1,000 schools in NI and the Department of Education records that just over 400 of these have chosen to keep their premises open .
The Department of Education has called for volunteers to assist in these schools , but the application form asks those applying to identify the sector in which they wish to be placed .
You can choose to be a Protestant volunteer or a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have remained physically open , 110 have decided to come together and co-operate to ensure provision for the identified pupils .
Twenty-eight of these “ clusters ” registered with the Department of Education .
Only a quarter of these include both state-Controlled and Catholic Maintained schools .
Examples of cross-community school partnerships can be found in Banbridge and Craigavon , Clogher Valley , Antrim and Newtownabbey , and in Derry/Londonderry a post-primary partnership of grammar and non-selective schools has been set up covering the whole city – providing a shared educational service across @ @ @ @ @ @ @ continued to operate as they always have done , providing a service to the whole community regardless of social or religious background .
The spirit of cross-community co-operation has however been less evident elsewhere .
In outer east Belfast for example Strathearn and Campbell College have formed a two-school cluster that would seem to be rooted in shared social class and community background .
This cluster did not stretch to the involvement of non-selective , non-fee-paying Ashfield Boys or Ashfield Girls nor to the Catholic managed Our Lady and St Patrick ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ less than two miles away .
There has never been a more pressing time for schools to collaborate and to show how they can react to exceptional challenges in non-sectoral ways , setting aside long-established class and religious divisions to provide support for learners .
Yet school separation persists in spite of obvious benefits of working together for the common good .
As we stand on our socially-distanced doorsteps on Thursday evenings do we applaud only those key workers with whom we share a community background ?
Nevertheless , our educational system , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to keep our class and religious educational divisions in place even in such an exceptional time of need .
A few days before Covid-19 became the only news story across the media , the Northern Ireland Assembly voted to “ Urgently… establish an external , independent review of education provision , with a focus on securing greater efficiency in delivery costs , raising standards , access to the curriculum for all pupils , and the prospects of moving towards a single education system ” .
This crisis is demonstrating that whilst old barriers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of life , they remain persistent and pervasive within education .
Their enduring nature prevents the most effective use of resources and emphasises the need for radical reform of our educational provision to deliver a more equitable system with all the social and economic benefits that will provide long after this crisis has passed .
Dr Matt Milliken is a Researcher at the UNESCO Centre Ulster University .
You can follow him on twitter .
Dr Stephen Roulston is a Lecturer in the School of Education , Ulster University .
You can follow @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by the Transforming Education Project are available to view .
View Documents Here… Photo by jodylehigh is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA

On 12th March, from the steps of the President’s Guest House in Washington, Leo Varadkar announced that schools across the Republic of Ireland would be closed to slow the spread of the Covid-19 pandemic. His statement echoed concerns that had been raised by teaching unions and parents in Northern Ireland and increased pressure on the Assembly to follow suit. On 18th March, First Minister Arlene Foster declared that NI would by closing all schools with effect from Monday, 23rd March, a decision that was in line with directives issued in England, Scotland and Wales. In the days that followed this instruction was revised to permit school premises to re-open in a limited capacity in order to provide services for the children of key workers and vulnerable children (including those with a statement of educational special needs).
As the crisis has evolved, a multitude of local agencies have put aside commercial and professional rivalries and geared up to meet a shared need. Surgeries, social workers and supermarkets set about co-ordinating their services. The emergency had also seemingly provided an opportunity for schools of different types to come together in our famously fractured system to serve the whole of the community – irrespective of faith, community background, gender, perceived academic ability or class. Instructions from the Department of Education encouraged schools to co-operate and find innovative solutions
It would however seem that, even in the face of a threat so unfamiliar and universal that the word ‘unprecedented’ seems inadequate, sectoral barriers remain and that, in the era of lockdown, genuine collaboration between schools across the sectarian divide remains something of a no-go area. Even when faced with a global crisis the education system in Northern Ireland seems unable to overcome a parochial preoccupation with maintaining the separation between us and them.
There are just over 1,000 schools in NI and the Department of Education records that just over 400 of these have chosen to keep their premises open. The Department of Education has called for volunteers to assist in these schools, but the application form asks those applying to identify the sector in which they wish to be placed. You can choose to be a Protestant volunteer or a Catholic volunteer.
Of the schools that have remained physically open, 110 have decided to come together and co-operate to ensure provision for the identified pupils. Twenty-eight of these “clusters” registered with the Department of Education. Only a quarter of these include both state-Controlled and Catholic Maintained schools. Examples of cross-community school partnerships can be found in Banbridge and Craigavon, Clogher Valley, Antrim and Newtownabbey, and in Derry/Londonderry a post-primary partnership of grammar and non-selective schools has been set up covering the whole city – providing a shared educational service across all school types. Special Schools have continued to operate as they always have done, providing a service to the whole community regardless of social or religious background.
The spirit of cross-community co-operation has however been less evident elsewhere. In outer east Belfast for example Strathearn and Campbell College have formed a two-school cluster that would seem to be rooted in shared social class and community background. This cluster did not stretch to the involvement of non-selective, non-fee-paying Ashfield Boys or Ashfield Girls nor to the Catholic managed Our Lady and St Patrick’s, Knock – all of which are less than two miles away.
There has never been a more pressing time for schools to collaborate and to show how they can react to exceptional challenges in non-sectoral ways, setting aside long-established class and religious divisions to provide support for learners. Yet school separation persists in spite of obvious benefits of working together for the common good. As we stand on our socially-distanced doorsteps on Thursday evenings do we applaud only those key workers with whom we share a community background? Nevertheless, our educational system, with some honourable exceptions, seems determined to keep our class and religious educational divisions in place even in such an exceptional time of need.
A few days before Covid-19 became the only news story across the media, the Northern Ireland Assembly voted to “Urgently… establish an external, independent review of education provision, with a focus on securing greater efficiency in delivery costs, raising standards, access to the curriculum for all pupils, and the prospects of moving towards a single education system”.
This crisis is demonstrating that whilst old barriers have been set aside in many walks of life, they remain persistent and pervasive within education. Their enduring nature prevents the most effective use of resources and emphasises the need for radical reform of our educational provision to deliver a more equitable system with all the social and economic benefits that will provide long after this crisis has passed.
Dr Matt Milliken is a Researcher at the UNESCO Centre Ulster University. You can follow him on twitter.
Dr Stephen Roulston is a Lecturer in the School of Education, Ulster University. You can follow him on twitter.
All papers produced by the Transforming Education Project are available to view. View Documents Here…
Photo by jodylehigh is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA


sluggerotoole--2020-04-27--Does Smoking Prevent Covid-19 or is it a myth?

The great enemy of truth is very often not the lie–deliberate , contrived and dishonest–but the myth–persistent , persuasive and unrealistic…… We enjoy the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought .
There are many myths emerging as we struggle with the SARS-CoV2 virus pandemic .
President Trump again covers himself in glory with his latest ; suggesting intravenous disinfectant as a treatment option .
Vitamin C , Zinc and Vitamin D are all appearing as disease preventors but there is little evidence and politicians generally are getting a bad name when it comes to the advice on , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Grant Shapps , for example , in an interview last week , declined to call Trump ’ s disinfectant advise rubbish and where it can be understood he was not wishing to criticise the head of the Free World , there must be a limit .
The French Health Minister , Oliver Veran to whom I referred before ( ref ) because of his claim that taking Ibuprofen could worsen Covid-19 infections , has been at it again .
His ibuprofen statement caused Health Services globally to reassess their position on the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of Covid-19 symptoms .
Last week the four UK Health departments issued a statement confirming the safety of ibuprofen .
They are clear that there is no evidence to support Monsieur Veran ’ s statement .
Oliver has now decreed that nicotine replacement therapy products ( NRT ) sales in French pharmacies be restricted to 4 weeks supply per patient .
He is doing this he explains to ensure that France does not run out of NRT for those wishing to stop smoking .
He is concerned his fellow country men and women @ @ @ @ @ @ @ protect against Covid-19 and in doing so deplete supplies needed for those wishing to stop smoking .
He is right to be concerned about the prevalence of smoking in France .
Annually 75,000 people die of smoking related disease and about 25 % of the population smoke compared to about 18 % in the UK .
But should he be so dismissive of NRT as a Covid-19 preventor ?
His concern has been sparked because France is shortly to begin a study to establish if NRT might protect against Covid-19 .
A French @ @ @ @ @ @ @ relationship between smoking and contracting Covid-19 .
If you are a smoker you are much less likely to end up in A & E or be admitted to ICU due to Covid-19 .
This finding , from this good quality study , is of particular interest since smoking was , from the early stages of the infection , identified as a major risk factor for poorer outcomes in Covid-19 .
However , Chinese researches noticed early on that smokers were less likely to end up in A & E or be admitted to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this counter intuitive fact .
Only 12 % of Chinese infections in ICU were smokers in a population where 52 % of males are smokers .
These studies were weak as many of the Covid-19 patients did not have a proper smoking status assigned .
An American study confirmed the findings but again there was significant problems with the data .
So the French group , working in Paris and studying a cohort of Parisenns , in March and early April trying to ensure robust data on smoking status , covid-19 status and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 500 Covid-19 patients who went to A & E or were hospitalised and ended up in ICU , they found that only around 5 % were daily smokers compared to the French public with a smoking prevalence of some 25 % .
Something is going on here but what exactly is unclear .
The French team identify a possible or speculative mode of action for nicotine affecting receptors that further impact on ACE2 receptors potentially blocking them or reducing their ability to allow transfer of virus into cells lining the lungs .
This @ @ @ @ @ @ @ blamed for ibuprofen potentially worsening the prognosis of those suffering from a SARS-cov-2 viral infection .
In the French study conclusion the authors offer this comment ; There are however , sufficient scientific data to suggest that smoking protection is likely to be mediated by nicotine .
SARS-CoV2 is known to use the angiotensin converting enzyme 2 ( ACE2 ) receptor for cell entry [ 14-16 ] , and there is evidence that nicotine modulates ACE2 expression [ 17 ] which could in turn modulate the nicotinic acetyl choline receptor ( manuscript submitted @ @ @ @ @ @ @ alter the control of the nicotine receptor by acetylcholine .
This hypothesis may also explain why previous studies have found an association between smoking and Covid-19 severity [ 1 , 9 , 10 ] .
As hospitals generally impose smoking cessation and nicotine withdrawal at the time of hospitalization , tobacco ( nicotine ) cessation could lead to the release of nicotine receptors , that are increased in smokers , and to a “ rebound effect ” responsible for the worsening of disease observed in hospitalized smokers .
That is very interesting and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to Covid-19 and denied the nicotine that the smoker has been getting for many years the patient has a much worse prognosis .
As with all studies this one has limitations and most importantly is the speculative link between nicotine and a viral protective mechanism .
It is a very good study and it is good science .
It is allowing the data to form the conclusions .
There is certainly no suggestion that people should start smoking to avoid Covid-19 and in this way Oliver Veran is right but he should wait @ @ @ @ @ @ @ might have .
However , I really fear , if he has shares in big tobacco , Mr Trump might just jump on this bandwagon too before we get the proper answers .
Photo by realworkhard is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA

The great enemy of truth is very often not the lie–deliberate, contrived and dishonest–but the myth–persistent, persuasive and unrealistic…… We enjoy the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.
JF Kennedy 1962
There are many myths emerging as we struggle with the SARS-CoV2 virus pandemic. President Trump again covers himself in glory with his latest; suggesting intravenous disinfectant as a treatment option. Vitamin C, Zinc and Vitamin D are all appearing as disease preventors but there is little evidence and politicians generally are getting a bad name when it comes to the advice on, and management of, our current pandemic. Grant Shapps, for example, in an interview last week, declined to call Trump’s disinfectant advise rubbish and where it can be understood he was not wishing to criticise the head of the Free World, there must be a limit. The French Health Minister, Oliver Veran to whom I referred before (ref) because of his claim that taking Ibuprofen could worsen Covid-19 infections, has been at it again. His ibuprofen statement caused Health Services globally to reassess their position on the use of the drug for symptomatic relief of Covid-19 symptoms. Last week the four UK Health departments issued a statement confirming the safety of ibuprofen. They are clear that there is no evidence to support Monsieur Veran’s statement.
Oliver has now decreed that nicotine replacement therapy products (NRT) sales in French pharmacies be restricted to 4 weeks supply per patient. He is doing this he explains to ensure that France does not run out of NRT for those wishing to stop smoking. He is concerned his fellow country men and women will start enmasse applying NRT patches to protect against Covid-19 and in doing so deplete supplies needed for those wishing to stop smoking. He is right to be concerned about the prevalence of smoking in France. Annually 75,000 people die of smoking related disease and about 25% of the population smoke compared to about 18% in the UK. But should he be so dismissive of NRT as a Covid-19 preventor?
His concern has been sparked because France is shortly to begin a study to establish if NRT might protect against Covid-19. A French study published last week identified an interesting relationship between smoking and contracting Covid-19. If you are a smoker you are much less likely to end up in A&E or be admitted to ICU due to Covid-19.
This finding, from this good quality study, is of particular interest since smoking was, from the early stages of the infection, identified as a major risk factor for poorer outcomes in Covid-19.
However, Chinese researches noticed early on that smokers were less likely to end up in A&E or be admitted to ICU and did publish some studies suggesting this counter intuitive fact. Only 12% of Chinese infections in ICU were smokers in a population where 52% of males are smokers. These studies were weak as many of the Covid-19 patients did not have a proper smoking status assigned. An American study confirmed the findings but again there was significant problems with the data. So the French group, working in Paris and studying a cohort of Parisenns, in March and early April trying to ensure robust data on smoking status, covid-19 status and the degree of illness. From nearly 500 Covid-19 patients who went to A&E or were hospitalised and ended up in ICU, they found that only around 5% were daily smokers compared to the French public with a smoking prevalence of some 25%.
Something is going on here but what exactly is unclear. The French team identify a possible or speculative mode of action for nicotine affecting receptors that further impact on ACE2 receptors potentially blocking them or reducing their ability to allow transfer of virus into cells lining the lungs. This ACE2 receptors is the very same one blamed for ibuprofen potentially worsening the prognosis of those suffering from a SARS-cov-2 viral infection. In the French study conclusion the authors offer this comment;
There are however, sufficient scientific data to suggest that smoking protection is likely to be mediated by nicotine. SARS-CoV2 is known to use the angiotensin converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) receptor for cell entry[14-16], and there is evidence that nicotine modulates ACE2 expression[17]which could in turn modulate the nicotinic acetyl choline receptor (manuscript submitted). We hypothesize that SARS-CoV2 might alter the control of the nicotine receptor by acetylcholine. This hypothesis may also explain why previous studies have found an association between smoking and Covid-19 severity[1, 9, 10]. As hospitals generally impose smoking cessation and nicotine withdrawal at the time of hospitalization, tobacco (nicotine) cessation could lead to the release of nicotine receptors, that are increased in smokers, and to a “rebound effect” responsible for the worsening of disease observed in hospitalized smokers.
That is very interesting and suggest that when rushed into ICU due to Covid-19 and denied the nicotine that the smoker has been getting for many years the patient has a much worse prognosis.
As with all studies this one has limitations and most importantly is the speculative link between nicotine and a viral protective mechanism. It is a very good study and it is good science. It is allowing the data to form the conclusions. There is certainly no suggestion that people should start smoking to avoid Covid-19 and in this way Oliver Veran is right but he should wait to see what if any role NRT might have. However, I really fear, if he has shares in big tobacco, Mr Trump might just jump on this bandwagon too before we get the proper answers.
Photo by realworkhard is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA


sluggerotoole--2020-04-26--Good time to bring merit in government back into electoral politics?

As we watch how our various ministers deal with the first genuine crisis of their careers , it seems like a good time to see if the management and emergence from Covid-19 gives us any ideas on how we can improve our overall governance in Northern Ireland .
Paul Gosling uploaded an interesting article earlier this week in which he raised certain ways in which our system of devolved government could be reformed in the general interest .
Paul ’ s focus was largely on the structural , but in my opinion , we also need to address the ability @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
I don ’ t think our system currently encourages this .
I assume most people would agree that the St Andrews Agreement was a carve up between the two biggest ( and most tribal ) parties at the time .
Probably at the time that was the only way to guarantee DUP assent , but the changes made to the election of First and Deputy First Ministers has paved the way to what most of us would hopefully agree is an almost permanent state of inertia in decision making .
The current @ @ @ @ @ @ @ each community into voting for either the DUP or Sinn Fein as the best chance of holding or gaining the FM position .
Yes , we all know the two positions are equal in every meaningful sense , but equally we know the symbolism of being notional top dog is a massive deal for the more insecure and triumphalist elements in either community .
That clearly damaged the UUP and SDLP as was intended .
Also , in those idyllic pre-Brexit days it was anticipated that the situation would persist at least well @ @ @ @ @ @ @ party self-interest won the day at St Andrews and we ’ re still paying for it .
Events really since the Brexit referendum and the emergence of the detail of RHI , up to some of the seemingly manufactured divisions over Covid-19 strategy , have consistently laid bare the hollow nature of our two main parties and the lack of basic ability at senior levels in both .
We are governed by a combination of an increasingly reactionary DUP ( see equal marriage and abortion reform ) and a relentlessly populist Sinn Fein @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ) and it ’ s not healthy .
As a natural optimist , I hoped the deal announced in January would be a genuine new dawn .
But it looks worse than ever .
I ’ ve given up on the current setup and I know I ’ m not alone .
As someone who still supports the union , I have never felt represented by the DUP since the first time I saw Paisley ranting in our estate when I was seven .
They stand for nothing I believe in and want @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to live in .
I believe – election results notwithstanding – that most of my community feel similarly .
I have never voted for them , but I am aware of plenty of people who do so reluctantly because of the St Andrews con .
Equally , I believe that there is a substantial number of current Sinn Fein voters who do so for similar reasons but who are far from happy with either what Sinn Fein still represent or with their performance in government .
Pre-Brexit and 2017 suspension votes for the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Foyle clearly demonstrated an appetite for change .
I think it ’ s still there .
Equally there are many thousands out there who simply feel disenfranchised by the carve up so who have opted out of voting in the way many nationalists did 1921-72 .
If they felt they could influence things for the better , I am confident they would return to the polling booth .
The last Westminster and Council elections proved beyond doubt that , shorn of the contrived Stormont insecurities , they would vote to parties or candidates @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The SDLP and Alliance were the primary beneficiaries of this mood in both communities and since then I think they ’ ve gone some way to justifying the confidence shown in them .
So , what ’ s that got to do with Covid-19 ?
Basically , we ’ re getting a first-hand view of how capable ( or otherwise ) our parties and individual politicians are when dealing with a genuine crisis for society , not one they ’ ve caused or manufactured .
It may be a while before we can @ @ @ @ @ @ @ one thing we can take from this is that we need ministers with ability , resilience and the willingness to take difficult and unpopular decisions , rather than ones who perform well on the Twelfth or Easter Sunday .
Of the functional ministers most in the public eye so far , I ’ ve been generally reasonably impressed by the approach of Swann , Mallon and Long , while Deirdre Hargey has managed her brief ( not the hardest as it involves spending money ) in a low key and apparently efficient manner @ @ @ @ @ @ @ impressed me , seems lost in Education while Conor Murphy , who I rated as the strongest Sinn Fein representative and a decent appointee to Finance , is now shorn of personal credibility after both the Paul Quinn and PPE order debacles .
I have never been impressed by Diane Dodds .
I don ’ t see anything in her to suggest she ’ s someone capable of kickstarting our economy post lockdown and I don ’ t like the way she and Hargey were parachuted into office without having won their seat @ @ @ @ @ @ @ election .
Of the big two , Arlene has avoided any gaffes and has managed not to make herself the story ( which is an improvement ) , while Michelle has had a personal nightmare , but I don ’ t think that ’ s her fault .
What this means is that under the pre St Andrews system .
I think if we had a Stormont election in a few months , the UUP , SDLP and Alliance would have strengthened their case .
I also feel that Swann could currently give @ @ @ @ @ @ @ money in a North Antrim FPTP election , such has he improved his standing among unionists .
But the carve up still works against them for Stormont , and thus deprives the community of the opportunity to reward ability over tribal noises .
That is in no one ’ s interests outside two party HQs .
The three junior coalition parties , along with the Greens , PBP and Independents , need to grasp this moment and really make the case to the two governments for a review of St Andrews and a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sort of system 71 % of the electorate endorsed in 1998 .
I don ’ t expect the DUP or Sinn Fein to accept it easily since the current system is set up to work in the interests of those two parties rather than the electorate .
But it ’ s in our interests for it to change and let ’ s face it , we were never given a vote on amending the GFA .
So it will be a tough fight but the last chance we will have to get ourselves @ @ @ @ @ @ @ here .
If not , I have no doubt someone will manufacture a crisis that will bring the whole edifice tumbling down again , perhaps irretrievably in a way that will suit no one but the scorched earthers .
No matter what your politics may be , surely no one wants us to be left isolated and voiceless at a time when so much work will be needed rebuilding the economy and society as a whole .

As we watch how our various ministers deal with the first genuine crisis of their careers, it seems like a good time to see if the management and emergence from Covid-19 gives us any ideas on how we can improve our overall governance in Northern Ireland.
Paul Gosling uploaded an interesting article earlier this week in which he raised certain ways in which our system of devolved government could be reformed in the general interest. Paul’s focus was largely on the structural, but in my opinion, we also need to address the ability of those entrusted with high office here. I don’t think our system currently encourages this.
I assume most people would agree that the St Andrews Agreement was a carve up between the two biggest (and most tribal) parties at the time. Probably at the time that was the only way to guarantee DUP assent, but the changes made to the election of First and Deputy First Ministers has paved the way to what most of us would hopefully agree is an almost permanent state of inertia in decision making.
The current system was designed to scare people in each community into voting for either the DUP or Sinn Fein as the best chance of holding or gaining the FM position. Yes, we all know the two positions are equal in every meaningful sense, but equally we know the symbolism of being notional top dog is a massive deal for the more insecure and triumphalist elements in either community. That clearly damaged the UUP and SDLP as was intended. Also, in those idyllic pre-Brexit days it was anticipated that the situation would persist at least well into the medium term. So, party self-interest won the day at St Andrews and we’re still paying for it.
Events really since the Brexit referendum and the emergence of the detail of RHI, up to some of the seemingly manufactured divisions over Covid-19 strategy, have consistently laid bare the hollow nature of our two main parties and the lack of basic ability at senior levels in both. We are governed by a combination of an increasingly reactionary DUP (see equal marriage and abortion reform) and a relentlessly populist Sinn Fein (see equal marriage and abortion reform) and it’s not healthy. As a natural optimist, I hoped the deal announced in January would be a genuine new dawn. But it looks worse than ever.
I’ve given up on the current setup and I know I’m not alone. As someone who still supports the union, I have never felt represented by the DUP since the first time I saw Paisley ranting in our estate when I was seven. They stand for nothing I believe in and want the antithesis of the society I want to live in. I believe – election results notwithstanding – that most of my community feel similarly. I have never voted for them, but I am aware of plenty of people who do so reluctantly because of the St Andrews con. Equally, I believe that there is a substantial number of current Sinn Fein voters who do so for similar reasons but who are far from happy with either what Sinn Fein still represent or with their performance in government. Pre-Brexit and 2017 suspension votes for the likes of PBP in West Belfast and Foyle clearly demonstrated an appetite for change. I think it’s still there. Equally there are many thousands out there who simply feel disenfranchised by the carve up so who have opted out of voting in the way many nationalists did 1921-72. If they felt they could influence things for the better, I am confident they would return to the polling booth.
The last Westminster and Council elections proved beyond doubt that, shorn of the contrived Stormont insecurities, they would vote to parties or candidates with whom they were genuinely comfortable. The SDLP and Alliance were the primary beneficiaries of this mood in both communities and since then I think they’ve gone some way to justifying the confidence shown in them.
So, what’s that got to do with Covid-19? Basically, we’re getting a first-hand view of how capable (or otherwise) our parties and individual politicians are when dealing with a genuine crisis for society, not one they’ve caused or manufactured. It may be a while before we can fully judge individual performances, but the one thing we can take from this is that we need ministers with ability, resilience and the willingness to take difficult and unpopular decisions, rather than ones who perform well on the Twelfth or Easter Sunday.
Of the functional ministers most in the public eye so far, I’ve been generally reasonably impressed by the approach of Swann, Mallon and Long, while Deirdre Hargey has managed her brief (not the hardest as it involves spending money) in a low key and apparently efficient manner. Peter Weir, who has never impressed me, seems lost in Education while Conor Murphy, who I rated as the strongest Sinn Fein representative and a decent appointee to Finance, is now shorn of personal credibility after both the Paul Quinn and PPE order debacles. I have never been impressed by Diane Dodds. I don’t see anything in her to suggest she’s someone capable of kickstarting our economy post lockdown and I don’t like the way she and Hargey were parachuted into office without having won their seat in an election. ever fought an election. Of the big two, Arlene has avoided any gaffes and has managed not to make herself the story (which is an improvement), while Michelle has had a personal nightmare, but I don’t think that’s her fault.
What this means is that under the pre St Andrews system. I think if we had a Stormont election in a few months, the UUP, SDLP and Alliance would have strengthened their case. I also feel that Swann could currently give Paisley Junior a genuine run for his money in a North Antrim FPTP election, such has he improved his standing among unionists. But the carve up still works against them for Stormont, and thus deprives the community of the opportunity to reward ability over tribal noises. That is in no one’s interests outside two party HQs.
The three junior coalition parties, along with the Greens, PBP and Independents, need to grasp this moment and really make the case to the two governments for a review of St Andrews and a return to something more akin to the sort of system 71% of the electorate endorsed in 1998.
I don’t expect the DUP or Sinn Fein to accept it easily since the current system is set up to work in the interests of those two parties rather than the electorate. But it’s in our interests for it to change and let’s face it, we were never given a vote on amending the GFA. So it will be a tough fight but the last chance we will have to get ourselves a competent and committed style of government here.
If not, I have no doubt someone will manufacture a crisis that will bring the whole edifice tumbling down again, perhaps irretrievably in a way that will suit no one but the scorched earthers. No matter what your politics may be, surely no one wants us to be left isolated and voiceless at a time when so much work will be needed rebuilding the economy and society as a whole.


sluggerotoole--2020-04-27--Question of pub home deliveries tied up with how we end the lockdown…

Those of us missing the pub , will have been heartened to hear about the Hatfield ’ s enterprising ‘ pints on wheels ’ service getting proper draft Guinness out to those needy of us who appreciate a drop of the black stuff .
Now they ’ ve run into a bit of bother with the Police because they necessarily have to be out and about .
I ’ m torn about it .
On one hand , I ’ ve argued that off-licences are local shops , and as such likely to be as large a vector of spread @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are looking at Italy , it sparks concerns that we should be reinforcing the need to keep the lockdown ( largely because having called one we are obliged not to lift too early… As my friend observes over there : Yet , if we look a Sweden , where citizens have been asked to take on much of the collective responsibility for helping to tackle the disease has been laid on individuals .
Although we can not say with any reliability , infection levels are probably still fairly low .
How on earth @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a vaccine can not be found within a decent time frame ?
Well , probably through this sort of innovation which avoids big crowds but keeps the connection going between local communities and their social hubs .
It would pay us all to re-examine the risk factors and not just close things down because they breach a rule which itself may be insufficient to broader needs of the situation .
What can we safely do so as to cause the least damage to the most vulnerable ?
As David says in the post @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have been isolated from their friends for nearly two months and even now the figures are not that encouraging .
But there is a pent up demand for ( whether it makes epidemiological sense or not ) .
Like it or not , managing that demand is a key ( if non-medical ) part of how Covid19 has to be dealt with by our civic and democratic leaders .
Shutting off cemeteries was not the wisest move since restoration may result in an atypical rush to visit lost ones .
And allowing people @ @ @ @ @ @ @ huge wave of human grief is an important aspect of how we get through this in the medium to longer term .
These are non-trivial considerations , and ones that come with very few rock-solid guarantees of success .
At some level , whatever the decision is made in regard to ‘ The Hat ’ , I salute them for their inventiveness and innovation .
They ’ ve recognised what the rest of us may have to learn in due course : ie , that our lives have changed forever , but being @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to find new ways to retain our society .
And to do it in ways that protect those most vulnerable .
And make no mistake , even when the lockdowns are lifted the threat won ’ t have disappeared .
As Christian Drosten , who directs the Institute of Virology at the Charité Hospital in Berlin points out in The Guardian notes of the German situation : At the moment , we are seeing half-empty ICUs in Germany .
This is because we started diagnostics early and on a broad scale , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , we brought the reproduction number [ a key measure of the spread of the virus ] below 1 .
Now , what I call the “ prevention paradox ” has set in .
People are claiming we over-reacted , there is political and economic pressure to return to normal .
The federal plan is to lift lockdown slightly , but because the German states , or Länder , set their own rules , I fear we ’ re going to see a lot of creativity in the interpretation of that plan .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ start to climb again , and we will have a second wave .
Lifting the lockdown won ’ t mean the end of Covid19 anywhere .
Even those places that did best at the start have to face this reality ( all the bitterer if there is no vaccine coming over the hill to save us ) .
Short/medium-term policy will have to take this into account .
That means keeping some space open for experimenting at the edges .

Those of us missing the pub, will have been heartened to hear about the Hatfield’s enterprising ‘pints on wheels’ service getting proper draft Guinness out to those needy of us who appreciate a drop of the black stuff.
Now they’ve run into a bit of bother with the Police because they necessarily have to be out and about. I’m torn about it. On one hand, I’ve argued that off-licences are local shops, and as such likely to be as large a vector of spread than big centres.
But… if we are looking at Italy, it sparks concerns that we should be reinforcing the need to keep the lockdown (largely because having called one we are obliged not to lift too early… As my friend observes over there:
One thing everyone agrees on is that Italy acted far too late on COVID-19. Waiting until it had nearly 10,000 infections before it went from walling off a red zone to national lockdown. Now we're going from lockdown to #Fase2, but we had 10,000 new cases in the past 5 days. — David Steven (@davidsteven) April 27, 2020
Yet, if we look a Sweden, where citizens have been asked to take on much of the collective responsibility for helping to tackle the disease has been laid on individuals. Although we cannot say with any reliability, infection levels are probably still fairly low.
How on earth are we to get through this if a vaccine cannot be found within a decent time frame? Well, probably through this sort of innovation which avoids big crowds but keeps the connection going between local communities and their social hubs.
It would pay us all to re-examine the risk factors and not just close things down because they breach a rule which itself may be insufficient to broader needs of the situation. What can we safely do so as to cause the least damage to the most vulnerable?
As David says in the post above, some young people in Italy have been isolated from their friends for nearly two months and even now the figures are not that encouraging. But there is a pent up demand for (whether it makes epidemiological sense or not).
Like it or not, managing that demand is a key (if non-medical) part of how Covid19 has to be dealt with by our civic and democratic leaders. Shutting off cemeteries was not the wisest move since restoration may result in an atypical rush to visit lost ones.
And allowing people space to handle what could be a huge wave of human grief is an important aspect of how we get through this in the medium to longer term.
These are non-trivial considerations, and ones that come with very few rock-solid guarantees of success. At some level, whatever the decision is made in regard to ‘The Hat’, I salute them for their inventiveness and innovation.
They’ve recognised what the rest of us may have to learn in due course: ie, that our lives have changed forever, but being intensely social we are going to need to find new ways to retain our society. And to do it in ways that protect those most vulnerable.
And make no mistake, even when the lockdowns are lifted the threat won’t have disappeared. As Christian Drosten, who directs the Institute of Virology at the Charité Hospital in Berlin points out in The Guardian notes of the German situation:
At the moment, we are seeing half-empty ICUs in Germany. This is because we started diagnostics early and on a broad scale, and we stopped the epidemic – that is, we brought the reproduction number [a key measure of the spread of the virus] below 1. Now, what I call the “prevention paradox” has set in. People are claiming we over-reacted, there is political and economic pressure to return to normal. The federal plan is to lift lockdown slightly, but because the German states, or Länder, set their own rules, I fear we’re going to see a lot of creativity in the interpretation of that plan. I worry that the reproduction number will start to climb again, and we will have a second wave.
Lifting the lockdown won’t mean the end of Covid19 anywhere. Even those places that did best at the start have to face this reality (all the bitterer if there is no vaccine coming over the hill to save us). Short/medium-term policy will have to take this into account.
That means keeping some space open for experimenting at the edges.


sluggerotoole--2020-04-27--Good time to bring merit in government back into electoral politics?


sluggerotoole--2020-04-28--COVID-19 Spread In Both Irelands, the UK and Selected Countries: Four stories in the Republic:

We are a small island , but the story of the COVID-19 pandemic is being written differently in each county .
The four graphs added to COVIDWATCH show these differing narratives .
Continuous data for Northern Ireland councils were not available ( when this data is available it will be displayed ) .
One of the graphs is shown above .
Methodology : New cases can vary hugely within a couple of days .
These huge undulations can hide underlying trends .
A 7-day rolling average will allow to some extent for test result backlogs and the impact of different @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is being used successfully by the Financial Times . )
For a particular date , the previous six days new cases are added to it , and this total is then divided by seven to give the rolling average .
This rolling average is then divided by the county population and multiplied by 100,000 .
This figure allows us to compare counties , no matter if their population is as big as Dublin ’ s or as small as Leitrim ’ s .
The shape of a county ’ s curve tends to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ These categories are subjective and based on data at April 27th .
RISE-AND-FALL : Counties whose new cases per 100,000 rose and then fell , almost bell-curve-like .
This is the most desirable textbook-case recovery scenario .
Half of the 26 counties fall into this category ( Carlow , Cork , Donegal , Galway , Kerry , Kilkenny , Laois , Limerick , Meath , Offaly , Tipperary , Waterford , Westmeath ) .
SEMI-DROP : Counties whose new cases per 100,000 rose and have fallen somewhat ( Dublin , Kildare , Leitrim @ @ @ @ @ @ @ : Counties whose new cases per 100,000 rose but have not significantly fallen .
( Clare , Longford , Mayo , Roscommon , Sligo , Wexford ) .
RISING : Counties whose new cases per 100,000 are still rising ( Cavan , Monaghan ) .
What do these graphs tell us ?
Unwinding lockdown when some counties still have a rising daily incidence sounds like folly .
How can the high rate of increase in Monaghan and Cavan be prevented from spreading to other counties in a lockdown-unwinding situation ?
Perhaps the unwinding @ @ @ @ @ @ @ There doesn ’ t seem to be a ‘ border ’ effect .
Cavan ( highest incidence in the Republic ) borders Fermanagh and Omagh ( lowest incidence in Northern Ireland ) .
Leitrim and Louth are ‘ semi-drop ’ counties .
Donegal is a ‘ rise-and-fall ’ county .
Donegal and Louth are close to the two biggest Northern border centres of Derry and Newry , whereas Cavan borders rural south Fermanagh .
Munster is doing least worse : five of its six counties are ‘ rise-and-fall ’ counties .
Cavan and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the Republic .
Island-wise , the pandemic is concentrated in the Bray-Athlone-Larne triangle .

We are a small island, but the story of the COVID-19 pandemic is being written differently in each county. The four graphs added to COVIDWATCH show these differing narratives. Continuous data for Northern Ireland councils were not available (when this data is available it will be displayed). One of the graphs is shown above.
Methodology: New cases can vary hugely within a couple of days. These huge undulations can hide underlying trends. A 7-day rolling average will allow to some extent for test result backlogs and the impact of different work practices over weekends. (It is being used successfully by the Financial Times.) For a particular date, the previous six days new cases are added to it, and this total is then divided by seven to give the rolling average. This rolling average is then divided by the county population and multiplied by 100,000. This figure allows us to compare counties, no matter if their population is as big as Dublin’s or as small as Leitrim’s.
The shape of a county’s curve tends to fall into one of four categories. These categories are subjective and based on data at April 27th.
RISE-AND-FALL: Counties whose new cases per 100,000 rose and then fell, almost bell-curve-like. This is the most desirable textbook-case recovery scenario. Half of the 26 counties fall into this category (Carlow, Cork, Donegal, Galway, Kerry, Kilkenny, Laois, Limerick, Meath, Offaly, Tipperary, Waterford, Westmeath).
SEMI-DROP: Counties whose new cases per 100,000 rose and have fallen somewhat (Dublin, Kildare, Leitrim, Louth, Wicklow).
PLATEAU: Counties whose new cases per 100,000 rose but have not significantly fallen. (Clare, Longford, Mayo, Roscommon, Sligo, Wexford).
RISING: Counties whose new cases per 100,000 are still rising (Cavan, Monaghan).
What do these graphs tell us?
Unwinding lockdown when some counties still have a rising daily incidence sounds like folly. How can the high rate of increase in Monaghan and Cavan be prevented from spreading to other counties in a lockdown-unwinding situation? Perhaps the unwinding should occur on a county-by-county basis?
There doesn’t seem to be a ‘border’ effect. Cavan (highest incidence in the Republic) borders Fermanagh and Omagh (lowest incidence in Northern Ireland). Leitrim and Louth are ‘semi-drop’ counties. Donegal is a ‘rise-and-fall’ county. Donegal and Louth are close to the two biggest Northern border centres of Derry and Newry, whereas Cavan borders rural south Fermanagh.
Munster is doing least worse: five of its six counties are ‘rise-and-fall’ counties.
Cavan and north Leinster is the core problem area in the Republic. Island-wise, the pandemic is concentrated in the Bray-Athlone-Larne triangle.


sluggerotoole--2020-04-28--The view from New York – the aftermath…

The view from New York – the aftermath…

I wasn ’ t going to write another one of these Views from New York .
It feels a little self-indulgent now when events have overtaken as they have and the whole world is now reeling from this pandemic .
And what of the developing world countries that barely make the news ?
China , Europe , the US have been dominating the headlines for weeks but what is happening in those other parts of the globe and how horrific will it be in the favelas and refugee camps and slums ?
Back in New York , I lost a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ weekend .
Richard Hake was the host of the morning show on the public radio station WNYC ( think Radio Ulster for New York City ) and was an integral part of everybody ’ s day for decades .
They ’ re saying he died suddenly of natural causes at home , but he was only 51 , around about my age .
One of the scariest new developments in NYC is young people ( 30 to 50 ) suddenly dying from Covid-19 induced stroke .
Hospitals are increasingly reporting never-before-seen cases of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ Rona ” but subsequently taken out by blood clots .
One more reason I stay awake at night with 911 on speed dial , and my blood-thinning fish oil supplements and red wine to hand like some kind of snake oil cure-for-all .
Aside from the virus , mental health is now very much to the fore .
I ’ m a bit of an introvert and a bookworm at the best of times so shelter-at-home kinda suits me , but I realized last week that I have not had the physical @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Saint Patrick ’ s Day when we had drinks in a friend ’ s apartment .
At least until last weekend… I got divorced last summer after 21 ( wonderful ) years together , and my ex came over on Saturday night for dinner and we got totally p*ssed-up on wine and had the best night ’ s craic .
I ’ m also beyond grateful to have my dearest friend , my dog , who ensures I get up before 7 am every day and insists we take regular walks in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ grey funk I ’ m in .
If it wasn ’ t for the plethora of social media apps keeping me in touch with friends and relatives around the world , I ’ d probably have completely lost it by now .
I have even re-connected with old mates I haven ’ t seen since my school or university days .
I ’ ve had calls in the middle of the night or in the wee hours from friends in NYC who are isolated , lonely , and in the grasp of a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to talk them down and out of it .
One friend lost her closest relatives back in the UK last year and is stuck in an apartment she can ’ t afford in Manhattan .
She has lost her job after a stellar 20-something year career and just wants to go home… Everybody ’ s drinking more , which is funny unless you ’ re in recovery or don ’ t have that off-switch .
I live in a “ transitioning ” area in Brooklyn and the bullet-proof Chinese liquor store was shuttered @ @ @ @ @ @ @ shop only accepts purchases via its app and if you go to pick-up there is red tape on the sidewalk demarcating a no-entry zone where you wait while they bring your purchases outside and leave them on a wine barrel .
“ Do NOT pick up the bag until we have closed the door !
” .
So I nearly fell out of my chair the other day when The Hatfield Bar delivery service made it onto local broadcast New York TV news .
My friend in Belfast , who shall remain nameless @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of empty Bushmills bottles .
She made a Black Bush rainbow in her front window .
If you ’ ve seen it , you probably know where I ’ m talking about .
As for the latest view from New York City ?
I live next to the epicenter of the epicenter .
Borough Park right by me is home to the biggest Jewish community outside of Tel Aviv .
Only it ’ s very orthodox , fundamental , and Hasidic .
Their communities generally don ’ t encourage use of modern media @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a result they have ( and I ’ m open to correction ) one of the highest C-19 death rates in the city while the authorities try to get the message across .
Over the way from me are some of the biggest housing projects you ’ ve never seen and the residents are taking their disproportionate toll .
If you remember Divis flats , quadruple it in size .
Black and other ethnic minorities , mostly low paid workers with no sick pay or decent health insurance are as much on the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ wise , I think I penned my first diatribe when we had a total of 500 deaths in NYC and I was shocked .
Last night the daily NYC death tally fell below 500 for the first time , and that ’ s considered good news .
Mind you , they still don ’ t count deaths at home , or untested deaths .
The State ran a quick survey in supermarket carparks last week and I think approaching a third of the random results among shoppers were positive , so we ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ who “ had it ” and got better can still infect others .
Again , open to correction .
Almost 100 MTA Transit ( aka Translink ) workers are dead .
Doctors , EMT , and nurses are dead .
Care home facilities across NY and the country read like horror movies .
One senior facility in New Jersey across the river had over seventy bodies piled up in an air-conditioned room because they didn ’ t have the resources to cope until someone called the cops .
On the upside , I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ call my family and friends around the world more often .
My mum in Belfast will be 85 years old later this year and lives independently .
She remembers the Easter Blitz , hiding under the stairs .
My granny told her the exploding bombs were just the noise of the brewery men off-loading kegs from the lorry at the pub down the street .
Now she hosts visitors seated in her back garden from her perch in the kitchen !
Wherever we are , we check-in on each other more than ever @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Four Corners so whenever I need a chat or just a message , I can reach out to Perth or San Francisco , or as a very last resort Hackney .
I ’ ve become addicted to those videos of orchestras performing from bedrooms .
Va pensiero by the International Opera Choir of Italy ( Google it ) has me in tears every time , and then on Saturday my ex told me it sounds like Flower of Scotland and as partial Scot who lived there as a child I realized he was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ again.. ?

I wasn’t going to write another one of these Views from New York. It feels a little self-indulgent now when events have overtaken as they have and the whole world is now reeling from this pandemic. And what of the developing world countries that barely make the news? China, Europe, the US have been dominating the headlines for weeks but what is happening in those other parts of the globe and how horrific will it be in the favelas and refugee camps and slums?
Back in New York, I lost a friend who I never met over the weekend. Richard Hake was the host of the morning show on the public radio station WNYC (think Radio Ulster for New York City) and was an integral part of everybody’s day for decades. They’re saying he died suddenly of natural causes at home, but he was only 51, around about my age. One of the scariest new developments in NYC is young people (30 to 50) suddenly dying from Covid-19 induced stroke. Hospitals are increasingly reporting never-before-seen cases of otherwise healthy people who had recovered from “Rona” but subsequently taken out by blood clots. One more reason I stay awake at night with 911 on speed dial, and my blood-thinning fish oil supplements and red wine to hand like some kind of snake oil cure-for-all.
Aside from the virus, mental health is now very much to the fore. I’m a bit of an introvert and a bookworm at the best of times so shelter-at-home kinda suits me, but I realized last week that I have not had the physical company of any friends or colleagues since Saint Patrick’s Day when we had drinks in a friend’s apartment. At least until last weekend… I got divorced last summer after 21 (wonderful) years together, and my ex came over on Saturday night for dinner and we got totally p*ssed-up on wine and had the best night’s craic. I’m also beyond grateful to have my dearest friend, my dog, who ensures I get up before 7 am every day and insists we take regular walks in the park regardless of how much of a grey funk I’m in. If it wasn’t for the plethora of social media apps keeping me in touch with friends and relatives around the world, I’d probably have completely lost it by now. I have even re-connected with old mates I haven’t seen since my school or university days. I’ve had calls in the middle of the night or in the wee hours from friends in NYC who are isolated, lonely, and in the grasp of a panic attack and I’ve tried to talk them down and out of it. One friend lost her closest relatives back in the UK last year and is stuck in an apartment she can’t afford in Manhattan. She has lost her job after a stellar 20-something year career and just wants to go home…
Everybody’s drinking more, which is funny unless you’re in recovery or don’t have that off-switch. I live in a “transitioning” area in Brooklyn and the bullet-proof Chinese liquor store was shuttered weeks ago. The new trendy wine shop only accepts purchases via its app and if you go to pick-up there is red tape on the sidewalk demarcating a no-entry zone where you wait while they bring your purchases outside and leave them on a wine barrel. “Do NOT pick up the bag until we have closed the door!”. So I nearly fell out of my chair the other day when The Hatfield Bar delivery service made it onto local broadcast New York TV news. My friend in Belfast, who shall remain nameless, has started making artistic displays out of empty Bushmills bottles. She made a Black Bush rainbow in her front window. If you’ve seen it, you probably know where I’m talking about.
As for the latest view from New York City? I live next to the epicenter of the epicenter. Borough Park right by me is home to the biggest Jewish community outside of Tel Aviv. Only it’s very orthodox, fundamental, and Hasidic. Their communities generally don’t encourage use of modern media, TV, or internet and as a result they have (and I’m open to correction) one of the highest C-19 death rates in the city while the authorities try to get the message across. Over the way from me are some of the biggest housing projects you’ve never seen and the residents are taking their disproportionate toll. If you remember Divis flats, quadruple it in size. Black and other ethnic minorities, mostly low paid workers with no sick pay or decent health insurance are as much on the front-line as doctors and nurses. Statistics wise, I think I penned my first diatribe when we had a total of 500 deaths in NYC and I was shocked. Last night the daily NYC death tally fell below 500 for the first time, and that’s considered good news. Mind you, they still don’t count deaths at home, or untested deaths. The State ran a quick survey in supermarket carparks last week and I think approaching a third of the random results among shoppers were positive, so we’ve all got it. And people who “had it” and got better can still infect others. Again, open to correction. Almost 100 MTA Transit (aka Translink) workers are dead. Doctors, EMT, and nurses are dead. Care home facilities across NY and the country read like horror movies. One senior facility in New Jersey across the river had over seventy bodies piled up in an air-conditioned room because they didn’t have the resources to cope until someone called the cops.
On the upside, I have the luxury of free time to call my family and friends around the world more often. My mum in Belfast will be 85 years old later this year and lives independently. She remembers the Easter Blitz, hiding under the stairs. My granny told her the exploding bombs were just the noise of the brewery men off-loading kegs from the lorry at the pub down the street. Now she hosts visitors seated in her back garden from her perch in the kitchen! Wherever we are, we check-in on each other more than ever. My Belfast generation scattered to the Four Corners so whenever I need a chat or just a message, I can reach out to Perth or San Francisco, or as a very last resort Hackney. I’ve become addicted to those videos of orchestras performing from bedrooms. Va pensiero by the International Opera Choir of Italy (Google it) has me in tears every time, and then on Saturday my ex told me it sounds like Flower of Scotland and as partial Scot who lived there as a child I realized he was right! Will we see your likes again..?


sluggerotoole--2020-04-28--Addiction in a time of crisis…

Addiction in a time of crisis…

Mental health is suffering as we remain in lockdown .
Those with poor mental health coupled with an alcohol/drug addiction seem to have worsened over recent weeks manifest in more and more bizarre and risky behaviours and an increased need for ; antidepressants , anti-psychotics and anxiolytics .
It ’ s time to rethink how we deal with addiction associated with poor mental health because we might not be getting it right .
Addiction NI , the local charity that does what it says on the tin , last year hosted its 40th Birthday conference in Belfast .
Conference discussed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
We heard from leading experts on the latest developments in neuroscience , we listened to heart breaking stories of loss through addiction , there were impressive success stories of survival and off course we had the opportunity to have a chat and meet people with a common interest .
Addiction has a devastating impact on individuals and families , communities and the economy and also on health and social care and the criminal justice sector .
The problem is complex and overlaps health and social care with many other issues such as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
It is an expensive problem with alcohol costing up to £900 million a year in Northern Ireland alone ; £250 million of this cost is borne by the Health and Social Care Sector .
If we include the costs from drug misuse onto alcohol , this figure would likely be well over £1 billion .
Interestingly the public see the lesser problem of drug addiction , pretty evident on the streets of Belfast at that time , but not the alcohol addiction problem as it is hidden within our social and moral @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , families , advocates , agitators and service users – we don ’ t like the pejorative monikers “ drug-addict ” or “ alcoholic ” – had lots of criticisms of current services .
Why is “ dual diagnosis ” for example not part of the patient journey in N.I ?
This is where someone with mental health issues and a drug addiction problem must take different routes through the health system .
Some small steps have been made to improve this since but we are not there yet .
An emotional mother @ @ @ @ @ @ @ did not want to use methadone and who was trying “ heroin assisted recovery ” had to die unnecessarily .
The system did not accommodate him and so he was left to use heroin of unknown strength supplied by dealers and he had to do so unsupervised .
He died of a batch of heroin that was too strong .
A “ survivor ” got the noisiest applause of the day when he told his story of recovery and he is now working as a counsellor .
He was particularly critical of our @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Did-Not-Attend ( DNA ) rule .
Seems he made an appointment while sober but before he got to the appointment he scored , got high and missed the appointment .
When he came too he decided that he now really wanted to change but found he was identified as “ DNA ” and not allowed an appointment .
The two keynote conference speakers , Stanton Peele and Marc Lewis , really are top of their game and their work will I believe be highly influential on addiction policy in the future .
So @ @ @ @ @ @ @ their ideas .
Addiction is not “ a disease ” and “ drugs are not addictive ” .
Rather addiction is an extreme manifestation of a pretty standard brain repertoire .
This has been known for years and boils down to the statement “ I didn ’ t become an addict because I had something better to do ” .
With good relationships and a purpose in life we don ’ t become addicted to drugs .
Suffer from ; social exclusion , low self-esteem or have ACEs ( adverse childhood experiences ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ forcefully onto behaviours that instantaneously bring relief from those negative emotions that burden us ; anxiety , shame , boredom .
Experimentation and peer pressure usually leads to these substances and , bingo , we begin an emotion-behaviour loop that spirals down into a habit and then with loss of higher cognitive control ; the bridge of the ship can not tell the emotional tanker to wise-up and change course , the compulsion becomes ingrained .
It ’ s the route from ; one-off behaviour ( experiment ) , to habit , to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is telling us that the impact of therapy/treatment is at best hit and miss and maybe not necessary at all .
If you survive your addiction ; and yes it will kill many who get ensnared , those who want to change invariably do .
They literally grow new neurons so the brain works beyond the narrowness and intense self-interest that is addiction .
They identify more attractive goals becomes motivated to follow them and they move on .
Addiction is impaired development but it is not a disease .
I think many @ @ @ @ @ @ @ an opportunity for service-users to beat service-providers with their heavy wish-lists .
Many did and left not realising , had they listened closely , the experts were telling them that only the addicts have the power to change ; they just need to get to a point where this happens , before it kills them .
Sadly the service providers , those that design services for addiction , weren ’ t listening either .
Photo by jarmoluk is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA

Mental health is suffering as we remain in lockdown. Those with poor mental health coupled with an alcohol/drug addiction seem to have worsened over recent weeks manifest in more and more bizarre and risky behaviours and an increased need for; antidepressants, anti-psychotics and anxiolytics. It’s time to rethink how we deal with addiction associated with poor mental health because we might not be getting it right.
Addiction NI, the local charity that does what it says on the tin, last year hosted its 40th Birthday conference in Belfast. Conference discussed ‘Changing the Conversation on Addiction’. We heard from leading experts on the latest developments in neuroscience, we listened to heart breaking stories of loss through addiction, there were impressive success stories of survival and off course we had the opportunity to have a chat and meet people with a common interest.
Addiction has a devastating impact on individuals and families, communities and the economy and also on health and social care and the criminal justice sector.
The problem is complex and overlaps health and social care with many other issues such as homelessness, mental health and community safety. It is an expensive problem with alcohol costing up to £900 million a year in Northern Ireland alone; £250 million of this cost is borne by the Health and Social Care Sector. If we include the costs from drug misuse onto alcohol, this figure would likely be well over £1 billion. Interestingly the public see the lesser problem of drug addiction, pretty evident on the streets of Belfast at that time, but not the alcohol addiction problem as it is hidden within our social and moral tolerance.
As the conference day progressed, families, advocates, agitators and service users – we don’t like the pejorative monikers “drug-addict” or “alcoholic” – had lots of criticisms of current services. Why is “dual diagnosis” for example not part of the patient journey in N.I? This is where someone with mental health issues and a drug addiction problem must take different routes through the health system. Some small steps have been made to improve this since but we are not there yet.
An emotional mother wanted to know why her son who did not want to use methadone and who was trying “heroin assisted recovery” had to die unnecessarily. The system did not accommodate him and so he was left to use heroin of unknown strength supplied by dealers and he had to do so unsupervised. He died of a batch of heroin that was too strong.
A “survivor” got the noisiest applause of the day when he told his story of recovery and he is now working as a counsellor. He was particularly critical of our hosts, Addiction NI, for their Did-Not-Attend (DNA) rule. Seems he made an appointment while sober but before he got to the appointment he scored, got high and missed the appointment. When he came too he decided that he now really wanted to change but found he was identified as “DNA” and not allowed an appointment.
The two keynote conference speakers, Stanton Peele and Marc Lewis, really are top of their game and their work will I believe be highly influential on addiction policy in the future. So here’s a potted version of their ideas. Addiction is not “a disease” and “drugs are not addictive”. Rather addiction is an extreme manifestation of a pretty standard brain repertoire. This has been known for years and boils down to the statement “I didn’t become an addict because I had something better to do”. With good relationships and a purpose in life we don’t become addicted to drugs. Suffer from; social exclusion, low self-esteem or have ACEs (adverse childhood experiences) then we are more likely to grab forcefully onto behaviours that instantaneously bring relief from those negative emotions that burden us; anxiety, shame, boredom. Experimentation and peer pressure usually leads to these substances and, bingo, we begin an emotion-behaviour loop that spirals down into a habit and then with loss of higher cognitive control; the bridge of the ship cannot tell the emotional tanker to wise-up and change course, the compulsion becomes ingrained. It’s the route from; one-off behaviour (experiment), to habit, to compulsion (addiction).
The science is telling us that the impact of therapy/treatment is at best hit and miss and maybe not necessary at all. If you survive your addiction; and yes it will kill many who get ensnared, those who want to change invariably do. They literally grow new neurons so the brain works beyond the narrowness and intense self-interest that is addiction. They identify more attractive goals becomes motivated to follow them and they move on. Addiction is impaired development but it is not a disease.
I think many felt the purpose of the conference was an opportunity for service-users to beat service-providers with their heavy wish-lists. Many did and left not realising, had they listened closely, the experts were telling them that only the addicts have the power to change; they just need to get to a point where this happens, before it kills them. Sadly the service providers, those that design services for addiction, weren’t listening either.
Photo by jarmoluk is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA


sluggerotoole--2020-04-29--For a real reset, we must talk about crony capitalism and post Covid economics

There have been some fascinating pieces of high-end journalism circulating from folks I ’ ve not been able to read or listen to for some time : probably because of the loud din of garrulous trivia our own politics has itself hooked on for the last few years .
If the local political jibber-jabber has begun to take a backseat , as we try figure the best way to tackle the disease and its repercussions , perhaps then we ’ ve also got a little time and a little space to actually do some fresh thinking about the kind of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ comes after the Covid19 crisis will be as challenging as facing down the disease itself .
But , for now , the shock itself is causing a change of gears in a range of folks with different views on the effects of shuttering the global economy .
For a thoughtful perspective from the Australian right , former Australian Deputy Prime Minister , John Anderson says this is a time for a radical rethink on a personal basis on what we think we are doing with the economy… …perhaps we ’ ve had some @ @ @ @ @ @ @ collapses due to people ’ s lifestyles their job opportunities and all of those sorts of things I mean you ’ ve had the coronavirus is one example .
We can now , if we ’ re honest , see that the one-party state is hardly something we want to live under .
Just perhaps , to the obsession with climate change , I ’ m not saying it ’ s not important but I am saying that the one-track mind that had everybody so focused on it , that they missed this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ us up a little bit and make us determined to rethink our own freedoms , rethink our own prosperity and the desirability of being able to afford things and think of our own children .
It seems to me though that until we are willing to to to pull together and focus on our common interests and stop dividing over everything that divides us in the West .
In our cultures that ’ s almost impossible but I hope to find the sort of leaders , you know , good strong people who @ @ @ @ @ @ @ knowledge and with deep courage to take us forward .
[ But ] we have to be worthy of them if I can put it that way .
In other words , we ’ re being held back economically by what we ’ ve allowed ourselves to become socially .
[ Emphasis added ] He is right about the dangers of continuing to polarise through a global shock like this , not least because it is unlikely to be the last one we are going to have wash up on our global shores @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as a grey rhino says Ferguson earlier .
Ferguson also raises a question over a public administration that apparently was well aware of all the dangers of a pandemic and on paper had a plan to manage it .
He throws his arms up in frustration with the issue of big government .
Big as in the federal US ?
States , like New York and Masschuchets , are locking down to get their citizens the biosafety and/or resources they need to them .
Papers written at the federal level beforehand were either @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Or small , as in the Federal Republic of Germany , who ’ s constituent states are generally politically and culturally coherent enough and have the capacity to plan and prepare on a much smaller and more tightly knit community by community basis .
But looking at what ’ s gone wrong in the US , Mark Blyth from a more leftist point of view hits several nails on the head here ( and which I quote at length in the rough transcript below the video ) : Economically we don ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ if you look at the way that different countries are put together the United States is kind of like a Mustang : no airbags , big engine , straight down the road .
Fabulous .
If you crash in it you die .
Western Europe is like a Volvo ; it ’ s a lot safer , clunkier and it ’ s not as much fun , but you probably want to be in one when there ’ s a car crash .
Huge amounts of [ US ] businesses have not just @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that goes through them again to the growth model and the very structure of American companies .
But here ’ s the question : why did we have to bailout Cruise Lines and why do you have to bail out Airlines ?
The short answer is : because American business runs with no cash .
There ’ s a lot of stuff in the press just now about share buybacks .
If you look at companies buying back shares and then look other people and other things buying shares then about 90 % @ @ @ @ @ @ @ market over the past ten years has been companies buying back their own shares In other words , it ’ s a giant Ponzi scheme .
They get in revenue , they take out what they essentially have to do for investment .
Any free cash flow is then used to buy back the stock .
That increases the earnings per share .
That ’ s the key metric , which boosts the price and then they award themselves huge bonuses .
Then the whole company has no cash buffer , so when @ @ @ @ @ @ @ know the old business adage of always have 90 days in cash and 90 days in the bank , forget that .
We ’ ve been running the whole economy on razor-thin margins and the assumption you can always have access to credit .
The airline figure is astonishing .
I think it is 94 % or 96 % of their free cash flow ( which means all of your profits minus what you put into things like buying planes and new uniforms and occasional pay increases ) .
It ’ s $ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ into buybacks and guess what they got as a bailout ?
$ 50 billion .
It really is crony capitalism on an astonishing and epic scale .
[ Emphasis added ] This in part goes to Anderson ’ s earlier observation of what we have become socially ( heavily dependent on fragile just-in-time supply , endless credit , and driven on by instant opinions matrices like Twitter ) knocking into our economies and wellbeing .
This applies to some extent everywhere .
But in particular , it explains why the US economy ( @ @ @ @ @ @ @ been so quickly compromised by the shutdown .
Like the Mustang , it is maximised for speed , not safety .
Coming back to earth somewhat , I don ’ t know which local businesses will survive this , but it will come down to solvency since liquidity can be gained by negotiating flexibility from landlords and further up from banks .
But you can probably tell which ones at least hope they will be coming back from their state of economic health going into the crisis .
People get tetchy mixing economics @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are at stake .
But if we are to get a decent reset after this is over we have to talk about it now , not later when the default mechanisms ( and old habits ) may kick in again .
Photo by stevepb is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA

There have been some fascinating pieces of high-end journalism circulating from folks I’ve not been able to read or listen to for some time: probably because of the loud din of garrulous trivia our own politics has itself hooked on for the last few years.
If the local political jibber-jabber has begun to take a backseat, as we try figure the best way to tackle the disease and its repercussions, perhaps then we’ve also got a little time and a little space to actually do some fresh thinking about the kind of future we want.
I suspect what comes after the Covid19 crisis will be as challenging as facing down the disease itself. But, for now, the shock itself is causing a change of gears in a range of folks with different views on the effects of shuttering the global economy.
Adam Toose in Foreign Policy, writes:
The economic fallout defies calculation. Many countries face a far deeper and more savage economic shock than they have ever previously experienced. In sectors like retail, already under fierce pressure from online competition, the temporary lockdown may prove to be terminal. Many stores will not reopen, their jobs permanently lost. Millions of workers, small-business owners, and their families are facing catastrophe. The longer we sustain the lockdown, the deeper the economic scars, and the slower the recovery.
For a thoughtful perspective from the Australian right, former Australian Deputy Prime Minister, John Anderson says this is a time for a radical rethink on a personal basis on what we think we are doing with the economy…
…perhaps we’ve had some shocking insights into what really serious phenomena collapses due to people’s lifestyles their job opportunities and all of those sorts of things I mean you’ve had the coronavirus is one example. We can now, if we’re honest, see that the one-party state is hardly something we want to live under. Just perhaps, to the obsession with climate change, I’m not saying it’s not important but I am saying that the one-track mind that had everybody so focused on it, that they missed this train coming at us, will sober us up a little bit and make us determined to rethink our own freedoms, rethink our own prosperity and the desirability of being able to afford things and think of our own children. It seems to me though that until we are willing to to to pull together and focus on our common interests and stop dividing over everything that divides us in the West. In our cultures that’s almost impossible but I hope to find the sort of leaders, you know, good strong people who can with high intelligence and with deep knowledge and with deep courage to take us forward. [But] we have to be worthy of them if I can put it that way. In other words, we’re being held back economically by what we’ve allowed ourselves to become socially. [Emphasis added]
That’s a perceptive thought coming from a former senior politician.
He is right about the dangers of continuing to polarise through a global shock like this, not least because it is unlikely to be the last one we are going to have wash up on our global shores. Not so much a black swan as a grey rhino says Ferguson earlier.
Ferguson also raises a question over a public administration that apparently was well aware of all the dangers of a pandemic and on paper had a plan to manage it. He throws his arms up in frustration with the issue of big government.
Big as in the federal US? States, like New York and Masschuchets, are locking down to get their citizens the biosafety and/or resources they need to them. Papers written at the federal level beforehand were either ignored or never resourced by the Treasury.
Or small, as in the Federal Republic of Germany, who’s constituent states are generally politically and culturally coherent enough and have the capacity to plan and prepare on a much smaller and more tightly knit community by community basis.
But looking at what’s gone wrong in the US, Mark Blyth from a more leftist point of view hits several nails on the head here (and which I quote at length in the rough transcript below the video):
Economically we don’t know where we are, but if you look at the way that different countries are put together the United States is kind of like a Mustang: no airbags, big engine, straight down the road. Fabulous. If you crash in it you die. Western Europe is like a Volvo; it’s a lot safer, clunkier and it’s not as much fun, but you probably want to be in one when there’s a car crash. Huge amounts of [US] businesses have not just a liquidity problem but solvency problem and that goes through them again to the growth model and the very structure of American companies. But here’s the question: why did we have to bailout Cruise Lines and why do you have to bail out Airlines? The short answer is: because American business runs with no cash. There’s a lot of stuff in the press just now about share buybacks. If you look at companies buying back shares and then look other people and other things buying shares then about 90% of all the action in the stock market over the past ten years has been companies buying back their own shares In other words, it’s a giant Ponzi scheme. They get in revenue, they take out what they essentially have to do for investment. Any free cash flow is then used to buy back the stock. That increases the earnings per share. That’s the key metric, which boosts the price and then they award themselves huge bonuses. Then the whole company has no cash buffer, so when anything like this comes along, you know the old business adage of always have 90 days in cash and 90 days in the bank, forget that. We’ve been running the whole economy on razor-thin margins and the assumption you can always have access to credit. The airline figure is astonishing. I think it is 94% or 96% of their free cash flow (which means all of your profits minus what you put into things like buying planes and new uniforms and occasional pay increases). It’s $48 billion. All of that went into buybacks and guess what they got as a bailout? $50 billion. It really is crony capitalism on an astonishing and epic scale. [Emphasis added]
This in part goes to Anderson’s earlier observation of what we have become socially (heavily dependent on fragile just-in-time supply, endless credit, and driven on by instant opinions matrices like Twitter) knocking into our economies and wellbeing.
This applies to some extent everywhere. But in particular, it explains why the US economy (as well as public health) has been so quickly compromised by the shutdown. Like the Mustang, it is maximised for speed, not safety.
Coming back to earth somewhat, I don’t know which local businesses will survive this, but it will come down to solvency since liquidity can be gained by negotiating flexibility from landlords and further up from banks.
But you can probably tell which ones at least hope they will be coming back from their state of economic health going into the crisis. People get tetchy mixing economics with public health when so many lives are at stake.
But if we are to get a decent reset after this is over we have to talk about it now, not later when the default mechanisms (and old habits) may kick in again.
Photo by stevepb is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA


sluggerotoole--2020-04-29--Maybe Covid-19 is not as bad as we first thought, but our leaders don’t know what to do next…

One of my favourite quotes is from the screenwriter William Goldman : I believe this quote applies to all areas of life , not just the movie business .
The older you get the more you realise we are all faking it and making it up as we go along .
Many of our leaders suffer from imposter syndrome , full of worry and self-doubt .
My first peek behind the curtain was at Queen ’ s when I saw all the medical students as pissed up and clueless as the rest of us , within a few years they @ @ @ @ @ @ @ And so its the case with Covid-19 , obviously all the experts know more about the topic than you or I but still they are as clueless as the rest of us .
There is a massive range of opinions across the experts , it can be very difficult to know who to listen to .
We have gone into lockdown which seemed the best strategy under the circumstances but along comes stupid sexy Sweden who decided to be contrary and go for lockdown lite .
The New York Times has a good @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Trust is high in Sweden — in government , institutions and fellow Swedes .
When the government defied conventional wisdom and refused to order a wholesale lockdown to “ flatten the curve ” of the coronavirus epidemic , public health officials pointed to trust as a central justification .
Swedes , they said , could be trusted to stay home , follow social distancing protocols and wash their hands to slow the spread of the virus — without any mandatory orders .
And , to a large extent , Sweden does seem @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the virus as most other nations .
Sweden ’ s death rate of 22 per 100,000 people is the same as that of Ireland , which has earned accolades for its handling of the pandemic , and far better than in Britain or France .
Yet , on this warm spring day , at least , there was little evidence that people were observing the protocols — adding further mystery to Sweden ’ s apparent success in handling the scourge without an economically devastating lockdown .
All around Ms. Lilja along Skanegatan Street @ @ @ @ @ @ @ younger Swedes thronged bars , restaurants and a crowded park last week , drinking in the sun .
They laughed and basked in freedoms considered normal in most parts of the world not long ago , before coronavirus lockdowns , quarantines and mass restrictions upended social norms .
As other nations in Europe begin to consider reopening their economies , Sweden ’ s experience would seem to argue for less caution , not more .
Now critics point out that Swedens death toll is 9 times higher than its neighbouring countries but its @ @ @ @ @ @ @ while the death rates are higher now , could they be lower in the Autumn and Winter ?
put simply are people dying now who would have died within the next year or two anyway ?
It is easy to criticise that attitude as being cold and uncaring but I believe Sweden are being pragmatic and looking at the bigger picture .
Over in the Wall Street Journal there is a profile of Stanford scientist John Ioannidis : In a March article for Stat News , Dr. Ioannidis argued that Covid-19 is far @ @ @ @ @ @ @ He considered the experience of the Diamond Princess cruise ship , which was quarantined Feb. 4 in Japan .
Nine of 700 infected passengers and crew died .
Based on the demographics of the ship ’ s population , Dr. Ioannidis estimated that the U.S. fatality rate could be as low as 0.025 % to 0.625 % and put the upper bound at 0.05 % to 1 % —comparable to that of seasonal flu .
“ If that is the true rate , ” he wrote , “ locking down the world with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be totally irrational .
It ’ s like an elephant being attacked by a house cat .
Frustrated and trying to avoid the cat , the elephant accidentally jumps off a cliff and dies.
” In part he blames the media : “ We have some evidence that bad news , negative news [ stories ] , are more attractive than positive news—they lead to more clicks , they lead to people being more engaged .
And of course we know that fake news travels faster than true news .
So in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ generated a very heavily panic-driven , horror-driven , death-reality-show type of situation.
” The news is filled with stories of healthy young people who die of coronavirus .
But Dr. Ioannidis recently published a paper with his wife , Despina Contopoulos-Ioannidis , an infectious-disease specialist at Stanford , that showed this to be a classic man-bites-dog story .
The couple found that people under 65 without underlying conditions accounted for only 0.7 % of coronavirus deaths in Italy and 1.8 % in New York City .
“ Compared to almost any other cause @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , it ’ s really sparing young people .
I ’ m not saying that the lives of 80-year-olds do not have value—they do , ” he says .
“ But there ’ s far , far , far more .
.
.
young people who commit suicide.
” If the panic and attendant disruption continue , he says , “ we will see many young people committing suicide .
.
.
just because we are spreading horror stories with Covid-19 .
There ’ s far , far more young people who get @ @ @ @ @ @ @ because again , they will not go to the hospital to get treated because of Covid-19 .
There ’ s far , far more people whose mental health will collapse.
” I do not envy the choices our leaders need to make , loosen the lock-down and see more deaths , or keep the lockdown and wreck the economy and risk serious mental health and societal problems .
Whatever they decide just remember its a coin toss , Nobody knows anything .

One of my favourite quotes is from the screenwriter William Goldman:
“Nobody knows anything…… Not one person in the entire motion picture field knows for a certainty what’s going to work. Every time out it’s a guess and, if you’re lucky, an educated one.”
I believe this quote applies to all areas of life, not just the movie business. The older you get the more you realise we are all faking it and making it up as we go along. Many of our leaders suffer from imposter syndrome, full of worry and self-doubt. My first peek behind the curtain was at Queen’s when I saw all the medical students as pissed up and clueless as the rest of us, within a few years they would have lives in their hands.
And so its the case with Covid-19, obviously all the experts know more about the topic than you or I but still they are as clueless as the rest of us. There is a massive range of opinions across the experts, it can be very difficult to know who to listen to. We have gone into lockdown which seemed the best strategy under the circumstances but along comes stupid sexy Sweden who decided to be contrary and go for lockdown lite.
The New York Times has a good report on Swedens response to the virus.
Trust is high in Sweden — in government, institutions and fellow Swedes. When the government defied conventional wisdom and refused to order a wholesale lockdown to “flatten the curve” of the coronavirus epidemic, public health officials pointed to trust as a central justification. Swedes, they said, could be trusted to stay home, follow social distancing protocols and wash their hands to slow the spread of the virus — without any mandatory orders. And, to a large extent, Sweden does seem to have been as successful in controlling the virus as most other nations. Sweden’s death rate of 22 per 100,000 people is the same as that of Ireland, which has earned accolades for its handling of the pandemic, and far better than in Britain or France. Yet, on this warm spring day, at least, there was little evidence that people were observing the protocols — adding further mystery to Sweden’s apparent success in handling the scourge without an economically devastating lockdown. All around Ms. Lilja along Skanegatan Street in the Sodermalm neighborhood of Stockholm, younger Swedes thronged bars, restaurants and a crowded park last week, drinking in the sun. They laughed and basked in freedoms considered normal in most parts of the world not long ago, before coronavirus lockdowns, quarantines and mass restrictions upended social norms. As other nations in Europe begin to consider reopening their economies, Sweden’s experience would seem to argue for less caution, not more.
Now critics point out that Swedens death toll is 9 times higher than its neighbouring countries but its a complex issue. For example, while the death rates are higher now, could they be lower in the Autumn and Winter? put simply are people dying now who would have died within the next year or two anyway? It is easy to criticise that attitude as being cold and uncaring but I believe Sweden are being pragmatic and looking at the bigger picture.
Over in the Wall Street Journal there is a profile of Stanford scientist John Ioannidis:
In a March article for Stat News, Dr. Ioannidis argued that Covid-19 is far less deadly than modelers were assuming. He considered the experience of the Diamond Princess cruise ship, which was quarantined Feb. 4 in Japan. Nine of 700 infected passengers and crew died. Based on the demographics of the ship’s population, Dr. Ioannidis estimated that the U.S. fatality rate could be as low as 0.025% to 0.625% and put the upper bound at 0.05% to 1%—comparable to that of seasonal flu. “If that is the true rate,” he wrote, “locking down the world with potentially tremendous social and financial consequences may be totally irrational. It’s like an elephant being attacked by a house cat. Frustrated and trying to avoid the cat, the elephant accidentally jumps off a cliff and dies.” In part he blames the media: “We have some evidence that bad news, negative news [stories], are more attractive than positive news—they lead to more clicks, they lead to people being more engaged. And of course we know that fake news travels faster than true news. So in the current environment, unfortunately, we have generated a very heavily panic-driven, horror-driven, death-reality-show type of situation.” The news is filled with stories of healthy young people who die of coronavirus. But Dr. Ioannidis recently published a paper with his wife, Despina Contopoulos-Ioannidis, an infectious-disease specialist at Stanford, that showed this to be a classic man-bites-dog story. The couple found that people under 65 without underlying conditions accounted for only 0.7% of coronavirus deaths in Italy and 1.8% in New York City. “Compared to almost any other cause of disease that I can think of, it’s really sparing young people. I’m not saying that the lives of 80-year-olds do not have value—they do,” he says. “But there’s far, far, far more . . . young people who commit suicide.” If the panic and attendant disruption continue, he says, “we will see many young people committing suicide . . . just because we are spreading horror stories with Covid-19. There’s far, far more young people who get cancer and will not be treated, because again, they will not go to the hospital to get treated because of Covid-19. There’s far, far more people whose mental health will collapse.”
I do not envy the choices our leaders need to make, loosen the lock-down and see more deaths, or keep the lockdown and wreck the economy and risk serious mental health and societal problems.
Whatever they decide just remember its a coin toss, Nobody knows anything.