sluggerotoole--2020-03-16--“No one is helping their government solve the problem by saying stupid shit on the internet…”

Years ago I worked on research for the Wellcome Trust on how organisations communicate during scientific crises .
One interviewee , a Vice President of Shell claimed his company lost the argument over the Brent Spar oil rig despite being right .
The trouble was , he told me at the time , that everyone believed in the Greenpeace case for towing because they trusted Greenpeace case for onshore disposal , and did not trust Shell ’ s plans to sink it in a restricted area .
To this day , I ’ ve no idea if that was true @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Twitter and before Facebook , his observation that we ’ ve shifted “ from a tell me to a show me paradigm “ .
It is not feasible to put on a white coat and tell the public that because science says you must do something , anyone will do it .
There ’ s a huge irony in the fact that this government pushed through a curiously ill-defined Brexit with one its number memorably suggesting that people have had enough of experts now trying to get us to listen because two men @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Ironic , but not at all funny .
Right now , whatever we like to think , none of us know very much about this thing , other than it is highly contagious and we need to very quickly adopt a new and potentially socially alienating culture , to save our most vulnerable .
Moving from a manipulative model of political communication to an open democratic provision of clear information has been hard for the Johnson administration .
But the wider arc of this leadership vacuum also comprises Trump and most western @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the press ( after initially treating Covid-19 as something of a lifestyle crisis ) government has continued to use its private lobby system to plant stories with select journalists before it actually says anything definitive .
That , I hope , is about to change with the announcement of daily briefings ( something our own Health Minister Robin Swann has authorised for six days ) .
Telling people that you have a model is no good if you don ’ t give them strong feedback on what it is .
Or indeed how @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tolerances and how it is likely to affect and shift government policy over time and not least explain how it handles the fact that there is now such a small of actual testing on inside the country .
The Greater Manchester Mayor and former Labour minister Andy Burnham has a very useful and very honest Twitter thread on how he learned from his mistakes when he was Health Secretary during the hugely less threatening Swine Flu pandemic… Open information and getting the political figure off stage seems to have been key to his @ @ @ @ @ @ @ playing for politics ( whether in government or in opposition or even as in the case of SF in NI , both ) is a disaster .
As I have said above , it is not enough to tell people what ’ s best for them , in this age people need to have the skin removed and shown exactly how the government is making its policy .
This thread from Adam Kuchariski on Twitter tells you as much about why govt is not doing certain things ( like preferring raising traveller awareness @ @ @ @ @ @ @ what it is actually trying to do : When it comes to communicating through a human crisis of this scale , the first thing we have to battle , apart from the virus of course is , to quote Roosevelt , fear itself .
And then focus on sorting out our own lack of knowledge and good personal practice .
One slightly hysterical Twitter user asked me about Johnson , or “ whoever is supposed to be in charge ” .
For the time being and for most of the way through this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are in charge and responsible to the most vulnerable amongst us .
I asked one of my kids ( who , like many in her family before her is now an experienced nurse , though she doesn ’ t specialise in infections ) whether her brother with Type One diabetes should wear gloves or a mask .
Her view was these could breed complacency .
Complacency amongst the population is our greatest worry .
Not food shortages , or schools being open or shut .
Just plain old complacency , not listening to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be , for some like Peter , will be traumatic when we lockdown .
It ’ s about what we can do now not whether the government has called it right .
That means , as best TAKING OURSELVES OUT OF THE LINE OF INFECTION : Feck Johnson , his scientists , doctors , and John O ’ Dowd and his shire of , well , whatever .
While I ’ m on , I for one want to know what his colleague in Finance is going to do about the shortage of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ exposure .
And when .
Last word to my favourite academic policy wonk on the limitations of the impossible business of this policymaking on the hoof , Professor Paul Cairney of Stirling University , who says that we really need to… “ kcwh ” by Robert Couse-Baker is licensed under CC BY

Years ago I worked on research for the Wellcome Trust on how organisations communicate during scientific crises. One interviewee, a Vice President of Shell claimed his company lost the argument over the Brent Spar oil rig despite being right.
The trouble was, he told me at the time, that everyone believed in the Greenpeace case for towing because they trusted Greenpeace case for onshore disposal, and did not trust Shell’s plans to sink it in a restricted area. To this day, I’ve no idea if that was true.
I do remember, long before Twitter and before Facebook, his observation that we’ve shifted “from a tell me to a show me paradigm“. It is not feasible to put on a white coat and tell the public that because science says you must do something, anyone will do it.
There’s a huge irony in the fact that this government pushed through a curiously ill-defined Brexit with one its number memorably suggesting that people have had enough of experts now trying to get us to listen because two men in a white coat say we must.
Ironic, but not at all funny. Right now, whatever we like to think, none of us know very much about this thing, other than it is highly contagious and we need to very quickly adopt a new and potentially socially alienating culture, to save our most vulnerable.
Moving from a manipulative model of political communication to an open democratic provision of clear information has been hard for the Johnson administration. But the wider arc of this leadership vacuum also comprises Trump and most western leaders.
Even for its supporters in the press (after initially treating Covid-19 as something of a lifestyle crisis) government has continued to use its private lobby system to plant stories with select journalists before it actually says anything definitive.
That, I hope, is about to change with the announcement of daily briefings (something our own Health Minister Robin Swann has authorised for six days). Telling people that you have a model is no good if you don’t give them strong feedback on what it is.
Or indeed how it works, what it’s tolerances and how it is likely to affect and shift government policy over time and not least explain how it handles the fact that there is now such a small of actual testing on inside the country.
The Greater Manchester Mayor and former Labour minister Andy Burnham has a very useful and very honest Twitter thread on how he learned from his mistakes when he was Health Secretary during the hugely less threatening Swine Flu pandemic…
Here’s a thread to explain a little more 👇 A decade ago, in June 2009, I was appointed Health Secretary by Gordon Brown. Days later WHO declared a global pandemic. Swine flu was never as serious as the current situation. But, from where I was standing, it felt pretty scary … — Andy Burnham (@AndyBurnhamGM) March 15, 2020
Open information and getting the political figure off stage seems to have been key to his government’s comms turnaround. Politicians playing for politics (whether in government or in opposition or even as in the case of SF in NI, both) is a disaster.
As I have said above, it is not enough to tell people what’s best for them, in this age people need to have the skin removed and shown exactly how the government is making its policy.
This thread from Adam Kuchariski on Twitter tells you as much about why govt is not doing certain things (like preferring raising traveller awareness to screening at airports) as to what it is actually trying to do:
A lot of my colleagues in the @LSHTM modelling centre (@cmmid_lshtm) have been working extremely hard to help expand the COVID-19 evidence base over the past two months. I'd like to take a moment to highlight some of their work… 1/ — Adam Kucharski (@adamjkucharski) March 15, 2020
When it comes to communicating through a human crisis of this scale, the first thing we have to battle, apart from the virus of course is, to quote Roosevelt, fear itself. And then focus on sorting out our own lack of knowledge and good personal practice.
One slightly hysterical Twitter user asked me about Johnson, or “whoever is supposed to be in charge”. For the time being and for most of the way through this crisis, we are the ones who are in charge and responsible to the most vulnerable amongst us.
I asked one of my kids (who, like many in her family before her is now an experienced nurse, though she doesn’t specialise in infections) whether her brother with Type One diabetes should wear gloves or a mask. Her view was these could breed complacency.
Complacency amongst the population is our greatest worry. Not food shortages, or schools being open or shut. Just plain old complacency, not listening to Nona. Not preparing for what will be, for some like Peter, will be traumatic when we lockdown.
It’s about what we can do now not whether the government has called it right. That means, as best TAKING OURSELVES OUT OF THE LINE OF INFECTION:
If you do not practice social distancing or have dismissed concerns about shaking hands and hugging everyone you meet this graphic brilliantly put together by Juan Declan will change your mind pic.twitter.com/JqLQCB3MzB #CoronavirusOutbreak — Ashraf Garda (@AshrafGarda) March 16, 2020
Feck Johnson, his scientists, doctors, and John O’Dowd and his shire of, well, whatever. While I’m on, I for one want to know what his colleague in Finance is going to do about the shortage of sick pay for public workers with serious exposure. And when.
Last word to my favourite academic policy wonk on the limitations of the impossible business of this policymaking on the hoof, Professor Paul Cairney of Stirling University, who says that we really need to…
…think about how to influence government, and hold policymakers to account, in a thoughtful and systematic way that does not mislead the public or exacerbate the problem we are seeing. No one is helping their government solve the problem by saying stupid shit on the internet [Emphasis added]
“kcwh” by Robert Couse-Baker is licensed under CC BY


sluggerotoole--2020-03-16--If Stormont wants save the social fabric of NI and save jobs, it is going to have to sacrifice the f

If Stormont wants save the social fabric of NI and save jobs, it is going to have to sacrifice the funds set aside for its pet projects and focus on what is needed for preserving our way of life…

As the Covid-19 Pandemic continues to spread and government measures to contain the virus are rolled out , it is becoming clear that many businesses in NI will not make it through this crisis in particular SME ’ s and businesses in the retail and hospitality sectors .
The difficulties in trading in NI are well documented as business struggle with the highest levels of local taxation in the world through the ridiculous business rates system we have here and the literally endless red tape .
The struggles businesses have with high business rates are well documented across the media @ @ @ @ @ @ @ many of us were hopeful for change , however , the comments of Conor Murphy that bringing in a 12 Month Business rates exemption like the rest of the UK was unaffordable here in NI , was met my most business people with dismay and frustration .
Every city , town and village across NI , now stands to lose the very hotels , cafes , bars , shops and offices that make the places that they are only to be replaced with vacant business premises and mass unemployment .
But it does @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Stormont has access to the funds that will save the NI local economy , but chooses not to redeploy these funds from their pet capital projects .
This is unacceptable , Stormont now needs to place the needs to NI society higher than their flagship projects of both the Assembly and Councils and reallocate the money they have allocated to these projects to support the local business community .
Most people would agree that it would make more sense to save the high street and peoples livelihoods than to build the likes of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the local councils .
They have the levers and funds at their disposal to do what is necessary to save the NI economy , should they choose not to intervene , history and the electorate will remember their inaction and incompetence for a very long time to come .
The politicians need to remember we are watching them closer than they have ever been watched before .
Photo by StockSnap is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA

As the Covid-19 Pandemic continues to spread and government measures to contain the virus are rolled out, it is becoming clear that many businesses in NI will not make it through this crisis in particular SME’s and businesses in the retail and hospitality sectors.
The difficulties in trading in NI are well documented as business struggle with the highest levels of local taxation in the world through the ridiculous business rates system we have here and the literally endless red tape.
The struggles businesses have with high business rates are well documented across the media and following the return of Stormont, many of us were hopeful for change, however, the comments of Conor Murphy that bringing in a 12 Month Business rates exemption like the rest of the UK was unaffordable here in NI, was met my most business people with dismay and frustration.
Every city, town and village across NI, now stands to lose the very hotels, cafes, bars, shops and offices that make the places that they are only to be replaced with vacant business premises and mass unemployment.
But it does not have to be this way, Stormont has access to the funds that will save the NI local economy, but chooses not to redeploy these funds from their pet capital projects.
This is unacceptable, Stormont now needs to place the needs to NI society higher than their flagship projects of both the Assembly and Councils and reallocate the money they have allocated to these projects to support the local business community.
Most people would agree that it would make more sense to save the high street and peoples livelihoods than to build the likes of Casement Park and Trophy office buildings for the local councils.
They have the levers and funds at their disposal to do what is necessary to save the NI economy, should they choose not to intervene, history and the electorate will remember their inaction and incompetence for a very long time to come.
The politicians need to remember we are watching them closer than they have ever been watched before.
Photo by StockSnap is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA


sluggerotoole--2020-03-17--On #StPatricksDay Michael D Higgins calls for “generous and compassionate citizenship…”

Mick is founding editor of Slugger .
He has written papers on the impacts of the Internet on politics and @ @ @ @ @ a regular guest and speaking events across Ireland , the UK and Europe .
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sluggerotoole--2020-03-17--UK expected to converge with European #Covid-19 strategies in a matter of days…

So last night , I think we heard the first stage in the UKs ’ s convergence with the rest of Europe .
The collapse of the prediction that the UK was four weeks behind Italy went to three and is likely to fall back even further back .
This report from Imperial College ( PDF ) , where the UK ’ s modeling team is based means the UK predictions change rapidly with each data input that comes two or three times a day .
Legislation is expected to be put through the House of Commons today that will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ footing as France , with the provision of laws that means people can be fined £1000 for being out in an unauthorised area .
Finally , at Conservative Home there is some recognition on the right of British politics that the UK ’ s provision for those at the bottom of the heap has been completely neglected or is just plain nonexistent .
Paul Goodman , its editor , has a suite of suggestions for the government that John McDonnell might have been pleased to get through parliament had Labour not been completely @ @ @ @ @ @ @ months ago : • Indirect means of funding businesses , such as loans from banks , will not be enough .
Government must be prepared directly to part-fund employers and workers , drawing on Denmark ’ s example , in exchange for agreements not to lay off workers .
John Redwood , who is on fine form at the moment , suggested some conditions on his blog yesterday .
• Where there are no employers to support workers , the state must step in , supporting small businesses up to an agreed threshold @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a helpline for his Time to Pay tax deferment Budget scheme , and it could double up for this purpose .
• Italy has suspended mortgages , rent and household bills .
The same looks to be necessary here and government will be required to cover the costs .
In France , Emmanuel Macron is declaring that no business will go bust • Business rates should be suspended across all sectors for “ as long as it takes ” .
Cuts in income tax would not encourage people to go out and spend @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the state is giving with one hand it would make little sense for it to take with the other .
A reduction in the standard rate there should be .
• Sunak announced a £500 million Hardship Fund in the Budget – to be distributed to Local Authorities .
He will need to scale that up .
• It is hard to see why pubs , clubs and theatres , which potential users are being asked to avoid , are not being asked to close formally – thus enabling them to claim on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Government believes it might be asked to bale out the insurance sector . )
As I said last night , “ no one should be punished for doing the right thing “ , even though they are .
Sort out sick pay , make sure the public service is doing what some responsible employers in the private sector are already doing and keeping key workers safe .
In these important regards , the Republic ’ s government has moved quickly , clearly and decisively , starting at the bottom ( where most people @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of unemployment benefit ( Є305 ) is available at a 50 % higher rate than normal .
Photo by Tumisu is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA

So last night, I think we heard the first stage in the UKs’s convergence with the rest of Europe. The collapse of the prediction that the UK was four weeks behind Italy went to three and is likely to fall back even further back.
This report from Imperial College (PDF), where the UK’s modeling team is based means the UK predictions change rapidly with each data input that comes two or three times a day.
Legislation is expected to be put through the House of Commons today that will put the UK on the same war footing as France, with the provision of laws that means people can be fined £1000 for being out in an unauthorised area.
Finally, at Conservative Home there is some recognition on the right of British politics that the UK’s provision for those at the bottom of the heap has been completely neglected or is just plain nonexistent.
Paul Goodman, its editor, has a suite of suggestions for the government that John McDonnell might have been pleased to get through parliament had Labour not been completely trounced at the polls just a few months ago:
Indirect means of funding businesses, such as loans from banks, will not be enough. Government must be prepared directly to part-fund employers and workers, drawing on Denmark’s example, in exchange for agreements not to lay off workers. John Redwood, who is on fine form at the moment, suggested some conditions on his blog yesterday.
Where there are no employers to support workers, the state must step in, supporting small businesses up to an agreed threshold via HMRC. Sunak is putting in a helpline for his Time to Pay tax deferment Budget scheme, and it could double up for this purpose.
Italy has suspended
mortgages, rent and household bills. The same looks to be necessary here and government will be required to cover the costs. In France, Emmanuel Macron is declaring that no business will go bust
Business rates should be suspended across all sectors for “as long as it takes”. Cuts in income tax would not encourage people to go out and spend in current circumstances. Nonetheless, if the state is giving with one hand it would make little sense for it to take with the other. A reduction in the standard rate there should be.
Sunak announced a £500 million Hardship Fund in the Budget – to be distributed to Local Authorities. He will need to scale that up.
It is hard to see why pubs, clubs and theatres, which potential users are being asked to avoid, are not being asked to close formally – thus enabling them to claim on their insurance policies. (Unless the Government believes it might be asked to bale out the insurance sector.)
As I said last night, “no one should be punished for doing the right thing“, even though they are. Sort out sick pay, make sure the public service is doing what some responsible employers in the private sector are already doing and keeping key workers safe.
In these important regards, the Republic’s government has moved quickly, clearly and decisively, starting at the bottom (where most people live) by ensuring a new category of unemployment benefit (Є305) is available at a 50% higher rate than normal.
Photo by Tumisu is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA


sluggerotoole--2020-03-17--Taoiseach Leo Varadkar addresses the nation

David McCann holds a PhD in North-South relations from University of Ulster .
You can follow him on twitter @ @


sluggerotoole--2020-03-17--Ipsos-MORI shows awareness of the infection issue in the UK is high…

For what it is worth , this has just come in from Ipsos/Mori .
It ’ s one of three @ @ @ @ @ of the issue of contagion in the UK has massively boosted in the last fortnight @ @ @ @ @ less worried about the effect of Covid-19 epidemic on their job ( probably because the @ @ @ @ @ kicked ) , and are less in favour of closing borders , which is ( @ @ @ @ @ is large and seabound .


sluggerotoole--2020-03-17--Schools and the phoney war, but #Covid19 will get a lot more real

It feels a bit like we ’ re in something of a phoney war just now .
But this is going to get a lot more serious before it eases up .
Some of us are being diligent , some of us are trying to be after a lifetime of never knowing how to properly wash our hands .
At the moment there are huge rows over whether we should have school closures when infection levels are still relatively low .
I ’ m fairly relaxed about it now , but I don ’ t believe schools have any right @ @ @ @ @ @ @ vulnerabilities to continue .
There ’ s just one school near us which has closed for the rest of the week , but it ’ s because they don ’ t have enough teachers to fill the void .
I suspect this will be a growing pattern as teachers conduct their own personal risk assessments and vote with their feet .
The government has been trying to play a fairly subtle game , trying to make sure that once the inevitable decision comes to close them the kids stay at home till long @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bit ) and the tail of this particular outbreak .
If this was December and not March going into the better days of April and May , this might not be such an acute problem in the minds of the UK planners and medical officers .
In England , there ’ s only another week before Easter holidays anyway .
Everyone agrees that closing schools will make a huge difference in the long run .
Nicholas Christakis is a social scientist and physician at Yale University recently explained why in his interview with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is a ] difference between reactive and proactive school closures .
Reactive is when a school decides to close when a student or parent or staff member is sick .
Most people don ’ t argue with that .
If the pandemic is at the school , you would want the school closed .
There have been a number of studies that have looked at reactive closures .
These analyses , including a paper in Nature in 2006 using math models [ of an influenza pandemic ] , typically find that such reactive @ @ @ @ @ @ @ reduces the cumulative infection rate by about 25 % and delay the peak of the epidemic [ in that region ] by about 2 weeks .
The downside is pretty obvious .
If you wait till the cases appear , “ when you detect one case there are probably dozens or hundreds of others ” .
However , he says proactive closures are “ one of the most powerful nonpharmaceutical interventions ” available .
Here ’ s the key bit for me though ( and why we should not yet be panicking about @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a wonderful paper published that analyzed data regarding the Spanish flu in 1918 , examining proactive versus reactive school closures .
When did [ regional ] authorities close the schools relative to when the epidemic was spiking ?
What they found was that proactive school closing saved substantial numbers of lives .
St. Louis closed the schools about a day in advance of the epidemic spiking , for 143 days .
Pittsburgh closed 7 days after the peak and only for 53 days .
And the death rate for the epidemic in St. @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in Pittsburgh .
There is no argument about school closures , the only argument is about when to close them .
We see from the UK PM ’ s statement last night that London is now considered a hotspot proactive school closures are likely to be days rather than weeks away .
The problem is not right now ( when hardly any of those huge numbers who will contract the virus don ’ t have it ) , and it is not even when we get to peak infection , it will come @ @ @ @ @ @ @ months ’ time when we are coming into full summer .
Even then it won ’ t be over .
This thing will not leave us alone until there is either some form of herd immunity or more likely , we have a vaccine that actually works .
For once , big pharma will be cooperating together , if it is even possible to get one that is .
When the posturing on social media is done over who ’ s righter and who ’ s wronger about what must be done we @ @ @ @ @ @ @ life will never be the same for any of us .
Photo by Pixabay is licensed under CC0

It feels a bit like we’re in something of a phoney war just now. But this is going to get a lot more serious before it eases up. Some of us are being diligent, some of us are trying to be after a lifetime of never knowing how to properly wash our hands.
At the moment there are huge rows over whether we should have school closures when infection levels are still relatively low. I’m fairly relaxed about it now, but I don’t believe schools have any right to force teachers who feel they have vulnerabilities to continue.
There’s just one school near us which has closed for the rest of the week, but it’s because they don’t have enough teachers to fill the void. I suspect this will be a growing pattern as teachers conduct their own personal risk assessments and vote with their feet.
The government has been trying to play a fairly subtle game, trying to make sure that once the inevitable decision comes to close them the kids stay at home till long past the peak (the most dangerous bit) and the tail of this particular outbreak.
If this was December and not March going into the better days of April and May, this might not be such an acute problem in the minds of the UK planners and medical officers. In England, there’s only another week before Easter holidays anyway.
Everyone agrees that closing schools will make a huge difference in the long run. Nicholas Christakis is a social scientist and physician at Yale University recently explained why in his interview with US-based Science Mag.
First, he notes:
…[there is a] difference between reactive and proactive school closures. Reactive is when a school decides to close when a student or parent or staff member is sick. Most people don’t argue with that. If the pandemic is at the school, you would want the school closed. There have been a number of studies that have looked at reactive closures. These analyses, including a paper in Nature in 2006 using math models [of an influenza pandemic], typically find that such reactive school closures for a moderately transmissible pathogen reduces the cumulative infection rate by about 25% and delay the peak of the epidemic [in that region] by about 2 weeks.
The downside is pretty obvious. If you wait till the cases appear, “when you detect one case there are probably dozens or hundreds of others”. However, he says proactive closures are “one of the most powerful nonpharmaceutical interventions” available.
Proactive school closures work like reactive school closures not just because they get the children, the little vectors, removed from circulation. It’s not just about keeping the kids safe. It’s keeping the whole community safe. When you close the schools, you reduce the mixing of the adults—parents dropping off at the school, the teachers being present. When you close the schools, you effectively require the parents to stay home. [Emphasis added]
Here’s the key bit for me though (and why we should not yet be panicking about UK public policy):
There was a wonderful paper published that analyzed data regarding the Spanish flu in 1918, examining proactive versus reactive school closures. When did [regional] authorities close the schools relative to when the epidemic was spiking? What they found was that proactive school closing saved substantial numbers of lives. St. Louis closed the schools about a day in advance of the epidemic spiking, for 143 days. Pittsburgh closed 7 days after the peak and only for 53 days. And the death rate for the epidemic in St. Louis was roughly one-third as high as in Pittsburgh.
There is no argument about school closures, the only argument is about when to close them. We see from the UK PM’s statement last night that London is now considered a hotspot proactive school closures are likely to be days rather than weeks away.
The problem is not right now (when hardly any of those huge numbers who will contract the virus don’t have it), and it is not even when we get to peak infection, it will come on the other end of things in months’ time when we are coming into full summer.
Even then it won’t be over. This thing will not leave us alone until there is either some form of herd immunity or more likely, we have a vaccine that actually works. For once, big pharma will be cooperating together, if it is even possible to get one that is.
When the posturing on social media is done over who’s righter and who’s wronger about what must be done we will eventually look up and discover that life will never be the same for any of us.
Photo by Pixabay is licensed under CC0


sluggerotoole--2020-03-17--Under #Covid_19 economics, forget the economy and put people first…

A really good outline of why the performance of the economy does not matter right now , and everything needs to be focused on looking after society , for once… The first implication of coronavirus economics is that a sharp slowdown in activity is necessary to contain the virus , because it represents the social distancing required to reduce its spread .
While usually a reasonable proxy for economic health then , GDP is temporarily useless as a metric of social welfare .
We should ignore it .
Second , ensuring this pause in activity does not do longer-lasting damage @ @ @ @ @ @ @ want this to play out like a bad agricultural season , or an extended “ Christmas week ” – with a Nike-tick recovery or , given some spending will never occur , a V-shaped rebound that redistributes activity over time .
Both these points mean policy success should be judged not by short-run GDP , but ability to mitigate distress among vulnerable households and businesses , preventing business failures or mass layoffs in viable firms , or severe hardship for those without significant savings or employer benefits .
We can judge longer success @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 1-2 years .

A really good outline of why the performance of the economy does not matter right now, and everything needs to be focused on looking after society, for once…
The first implication of coronavirus economics is that a sharp slowdown in activity is necessary to contain the virus, because it represents the social distancing required to reduce its spread. While usually a reasonable proxy for economic health then, GDP is temporarily useless as a metric of social welfare. We should ignore it.
Second, ensuring this pause in activity does not do longer-lasting damage should be our key objective. We want this to play out like a bad agricultural season, or an extended “Christmas week” – with a Nike-tick recovery or, given some spending will never occur, a V-shaped rebound that redistributes activity over time.
Both these points mean policy success should be judged not by short-run GDP, but ability to mitigate distress among vulnerable households and businesses, preventing business failures or mass layoffs in viable firms, or severe hardship for those without significant savings or employer benefits. We can judge longer success by assessing the path of GDP over 1-2 years.


sluggerotoole--2020-03-18--Search for a #Corvid-19 cure may be more realistic than you think

Again , I ’ m putting this here without too much extraneous comment , since I ’ m not in a position to take any kind of view on the matter .
I don ’ t know about you but it certainly surprises me that a possible treatment could have emerged quite as quickly as this .
So I asked my friend , former work colleague and co-author of Slugger ’ s study of Unionism David Steven ( do follow him on Twitter ) , who works for NYU but is holed up in Pisa where he now lives , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a short window : …because many different teams – public and private – are working on it .
They ’ re networked together and are learning from and competing with each other .
Companies will make a lot of money from a [ successful ] treatment .
And – most importantly – they don ’ t really need to do much testing unlike for a vaccine ( the ethics of giving a healthy person something are very different from trying a drug on someone who is at death ’ s door ) .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ HIV ?
AIDS – prevention and social distancing ( safe sex ) is followed by a new wave of treatments – well before a vaccine .
A death-sentence disease is turned into something that can be managed .
Photo by Pixabay is licensed under CC0

Again, I’m putting this here without too much extraneous comment, since I’m not in a position to take any kind of view on the matter. I don’t know about you but it certainly surprises me that a possible treatment could have emerged quite as quickly as this.
So I asked my friend, former work colleague and co-author of Slugger’s study of Unionism David Steven (do follow him on Twitter), who works for NYU but is holed up in Pisa where he now lives, why should this be happening in such a short window:
…because many different teams – public and private – are working on it. They’re networked together and are learning from and competing with each other. Companies will make a lot of money from a [successful] treatment. And – most importantly – they don’t really need to do much testing unlike for a vaccine (the ethics of giving a healthy person something are very different from trying a drug on someone who is at death’s door). Imagine this like a compressed version of HIV?AIDS – prevention and social distancing (safe sex) is followed by a new wave of treatments – well before a vaccine. A death-sentence disease is turned into something that can be managed. That changes a lot
Let’s hope so.
Photo by Pixabay is licensed under CC0


sluggerotoole--2020-03-18--Where, indeed, are our Northern Ireland leaders?

Not always been Jamie ’ s biggest fan myself , but I ’ m just putting this here because , @ @ @ @ @ I agree with him… Get it together women !
Time ’ s a-wasting…


sluggerotoole--2020-03-18--#Covid-19 lockdown will take a lot of planning ahead…

Brian ’ s right and the time for closing all schools is Friday in England , Monday in Northern Ireland… The extra time has been spent in focusing on the curriculum needs of exam years of 11 and 13 .
In my daughter ’ s school Year 8s and 9s are taking all their books home today .
That ’ s where I imagine a lot of the distance learning focus is going to be and to a lesser extent the pre-exam Year 10s and 12s .
I think there was some expectation they might get through till the Easter @ @ @ @ @ @ @ surprised if it gets beyond the weekend .
There is the question of what kids who get free school meals do .
Coop Group has 6,500 students on free school meals at their 25 Co-op Academy schools and is giving them a £20 voucher for every week of unplanned closure to spend in their food stores .
But their CEO Steve Morrells is calling on the UK Government to make provision for 1.4 million kids on free school meals and has asked them to “ lead a nationwide effort to make sure no @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ t go to school ” .
And this particular school is offering its students ( and anyone else ) a set of exercises to do during the lockdown : This lockdown is going to be hard for people .
There ’ s a lot of advice online , but one thing most seem clear on is the importance of creating a routine .
If the UK estimate is right kids will be off for nearly twice the length of the normal summer school holiday .
This Aussie parents and children ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ : • Manage your expectations : you may not be as productive if you are working from home without your usual equipment and routine , or with family interrupting you .
• Step outside for a change of scene : even a walk around the block can relieve some of the frustration , when social visits or a workout at the gym are not an option .
• Allow extra time for everything : with fewer people providing customer service and more shopping online for groceries , medicines and deliveries of food there @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Plan ahead and think of some alternatives in case what you want is unavailable .
And if you are in that situation , you will certainly want to bookmark the Remote Working Survival Kit website .
There ’ s good stuff about building a strong collaborative remote working culture to vital organisations to develop efficiency and resilience .
As the epidemic progresses , there will be a huge streamlining of retail , health and other key public sector operations helping to keep vital services running .
This has been another benefit of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ longer .
The question will be asked whether those who have had the virus once , can get it again .
So whilst workers will undoubtedly drop out , later on , many of them may be able to opt back in .
This will all have to be planned , risk assessed before implementation .
Oh , and I like this…

Brian’s right and the time for closing all schools is Friday in England, Monday in Northern Ireland…
So to clarify Stormont sources incorrect re immediate closure for pupils – closure will kick in from Monday – a number of schools have already covered this week with “development days” — Mark Devenport (@markdevenport) March 18, 2020
The extra time has been spent in focusing on the curriculum needs of exam years of 11 and 13. In my daughter’s school Year 8s and 9s are taking all their books home today.
That’s where I imagine a lot of the distance learning focus is going to be and to a lesser extent the pre-exam Year 10s and 12s. I think there was some expectation they might get through till the Easter holidays, but I’d be surprised if it gets beyond the weekend.
There is the question of what kids who get free school meals do. Coop Group has 6,500 students on free school meals at their 25 Co-op Academy schools and is giving them a £20 voucher for every week of unplanned closure to spend in their food stores.
But their CEO Steve Morrells is calling on the UK Government to make provision for 1.4 million kids on free school meals and has asked them to “lead a nationwide effort to make sure no child goes hungry just because they can’t go to school”.
And this particular school is offering its students (and anyone else) a set of exercises to do during the lockdown:
Want to keep fit whilst self-isolating? Missing your PE lessons already? Complete 3 rounds of our PE teachers work out as fast as possible. We will be posting one of these work outs everyday this week and next. #BeingCoop pic.twitter.com/WpsMRujXjK — Co-op Academy Walkden (@WalkdenCoop) March 18, 2020
This lockdown is going to be hard for people. There’s a lot of advice online, but one thing most seem clear on is the importance of creating a routine. If the UK estimate is right kids will be off for nearly twice the length of the normal summer school holiday.
This Aussie parents and children’s survival kit offers following to working parents:
Manage your expectations: you may not be as productive if you are working from home without your usual equipment and routine, or with family interrupting you.
Step outside for a change of scene: even a walk around the block can relieve some of the frustration, when social visits or a workout at the gym are not an option.
Allow extra time for everything: with fewer people providing customer service and more shopping online for groceries, medicines and deliveries of food there are likely to be delays and cancellations. Plan ahead and think of some alternatives in case what you want is unavailable.
And if you are in that situation, you will certainly want to bookmark the Remote Working Survival Kit website. There’s good stuff about building a strong collaborative remote working culture to vital organisations to develop efficiency and resilience.
As the epidemic progresses, there will be a huge streamlining of retail, health and other key public sector operations helping to keep vital services running. This has been another benefit of keeping the schools open that little bit longer.
The question will be asked whether those who have had the virus once, can get it again. So whilst workers will undoubtedly drop out, later on, many of them may be able to opt back in. This will all have to be planned, risk assessed before implementation.
Oh, and I like this…
https://twitter.com/EvertonRoseYT/status/1240335259453001730


School closures imminent?

Schools in Wales and Scotland to close on Friday .
Nicola Sturgeon says she can ’ t guarantee Scottish schools will reopen before the summer .
General closure including England and Northern Ireland must surely be imminent .
Boris Johnson is due to hold a Cobra on issue of school closures this afternoon .
Issues to be discussed include : * What happens to children of key workers in NHS and social care and those needed to keep supermarkets open ?
What happens to vulnerable children ?
” “ I am joining with other Parliamentary Party Leaders to press for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Income to support working families , self employed people & others .
This will provide practical help to people & families and support the economy .
At PMQs Boris Johnson was sympathetic to all suggestions but committed to none – yet Undeniable that £95 a week “ sickness ” pay is not enough to feed a family The big outstanding question is how the Chancellor will provide big new job subsidies to discourage businesses from sacking employees as their revenues collapse .
My understanding is looking at big cuts to employers national insurance @ @ @ @ @ @ @ system .
The first route would subsidise employers directly , the second would be a subsidy via the employees ’ pay packet .
Whatever route taken , it has got to last for as long as Covid19 is massively constraining social interaction , which could be over a year .
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey tells BBC that businesses thinking of firing staff because of coronavirus crisis should “ stop ” talk to the Bank of England and Treasury about what ’ s available ’ to fund keeping workers in jobs .

Schools in Wales and Scotland to close on Friday. Nicola Sturgeon says she can’t guarantee Scottish schools will reopen before the summer. General closure including England and Northern Ireland must surely be imminent.
Boris Johnson is due to hold a Cobra on issue of school closures this afternoon. Issues to be discussed include: * What happens to children of key workers in NHS and social care and those needed to keep supermarkets open? What happens to vulnerable children?”
Jeffery Donaldson DUP leader at Westminster says.
“I am joining with other Parliamentary Party Leaders to press for immediate introduction of a temporary Universal Basic Income to support working families, self employed people & others. This will provide practical help to people & families and support the economy.
At PMQs Boris Johnson was sympathetic to all suggestions but committed to none – yet Undeniable that £95 a week “ sickness” pay is not enough to feed a family
Peston says
The big outstanding question is how the Chancellor will provide big new job subsidies to discourage businesses from sacking employees as their revenues collapse. My understanding is looking at big cuts to employers national insurance and top ups to the universal credit system. The first route would subsidise employers directly, the second would be a subsidy via the employees’ pay packet. Whatever route taken, it has got to last for as long as Covid19 is massively constraining social interaction, which could be over a year.
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey tells BBC that businesses thinking of firing staff because of coronavirus crisis should “stop” talk to the Bank of England and Treasury about what’s available’ to fund keeping workers in jobs.


sluggerotoole--2020-03-18--With #Corvid-19 communication has to become at least a two way affair…

It ’ s easy to say governments are making a mess of this situation , when in fact we are just looking for a set of certainties that simply aren ’ t there anymore .
That said it is also true that some politicians and civil servants are better at communications than others .
Bill de Blasio , Mayor of New York City and his team gave a tour de force yesterday in this briefing : The US ’ s reliance on a private and complex series of health insurance doesn ’ t have a system as such , so @ @ @ @ @ @ @ over places like Italy and the UK who do .
The HSE may be moving that way but it is a comprehensive system .
Thus the ability to share and track health data is a key part of the UK approach to tackling the virus .
The advice against shutting schools is based upon a reading of these data , and are essentially advisory .
If you ’ re worried , you can take the kids out .
But the advice to keep schools is not wrong as such .
Not even the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ government to bring forward some of its measures , challenges the wisdom of keeping schools open now .
Your view of Boris Johnson ’ s performance is likely to be coloured by your of his politics , and there ’ s no doubting the lack of charisma of the UK CMO ’ s but it is full of detail and content and early warnings of what ’ s to come .
His Scottish counterpart is full colour .
Professor Jason Leitch says as long as you both wash your hands as you enter @ @ @ @ @ @ @ then don ’ t be shy : This is a new habit and hard to rewire into your brain .
Forget it once and the bug can get in .
In fact , the truth is that our schools are not the front line in this fight , we are .
Panicking ( or just being plain mischievous for the politics of it ) helps no one .
Closing schools won ’ t help ( although an early and very hot summer might ) .
Early discovery of a cure for those suffering @ @ @ @ @ @ @ discounted , but most of us underestimate the scale of the preparations the government has to make .
What may look like waffle ( although I don ’ t think Professor Leitch can be accused of that ) may be to do with the fact we are all learning about what ’ s most effective .
That means ( as Mayor de Blasio says several times above ) that we have to review and change .
Some of the stuff that makes sense to do at the beginning may not actually sustainable the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ you are going to be one of the lucky ones who don ’ t get it when most forecasts suggest 80 % plus of us will , is , sadly , probably fanciful .
The time you don ’ t want to get it is in the peak period when none of our health systems will be able to cope with the demand .
Washing hands works .
Every two hours if you ’ re out and every time leave and come back into the house .
If you don ’ t do @ @ @ @ @ @ @ country won ’ t help you nor your most vulnerable members of your family .
Here ’ s Prof Leitch delivering a stunning death blow to the UK ’ s top TV public health troll… Politically , I have no time for Boris Johnson and his damned Brexit .
And he ’ s struggling to contain his natural exuberance , but I don ’ t think that we have a choice to trust their leaders and do what we can personally do to slow the virus .
I ’ m with Alex on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ north-south has been regrettable and has created something of a political distraction from the real work of slowing the virus .
As David Steven notes… The school ’ s issue is slowly converging anyway and there will be plenty of time to come together afterwards .
Interestingly NYC is already using them as feeding stations for the sort of kids who would be on free school meals .
We will need to evolve thousands of such small changes as we adjust to this radical change in our new human environment .
What we @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Kellden calls ‘ actionable insight ’ and tons of it .
We need all the help we can get to learn quickly .

It’s easy to say governments are making a mess of this situation, when in fact we are just looking for a set of certainties that simply aren’t there anymore. That said it is also true that some politicians and civil servants are better at communications than others.
Bill de Blasio, Mayor of New York City and his team gave a tour de force yesterday in this briefing:
The US’s reliance on a private and complex series of health insurance doesn’t have a system as such, so it is one down in that regard over places like Italy and the UK who do. The HSE may be moving that way but it is a comprehensive system.
Thus the ability to share and track health data is a key part of the UK approach to tackling the virus. The advice against shutting schools is based upon a reading of these data, and are essentially advisory. If you’re worried, you can take the kids out.
But the advice to keep schools is not wrong as such. Not even the Imperial College report, which prompted the government to bring forward some of its measures, challenges the wisdom of keeping schools open now.
Your view of Boris Johnson’s performance is likely to be coloured by your of his politics, and there’s no doubting the lack of charisma of the UK CMO’s but it is full of detail and content and early warnings of what’s to come. His Scottish counterpart is full colour.
Professor Jason Leitch says as long as you both wash your hands as you enter and leave each house you visit, then don’t be shy:
Wow! What a response we got from our listeners to one of today’s lunchtime guests – Professor Jason Leitch.
Here’s the first of two parts as he answers our listeners questions about Coronavirus. Podcast for more ➡ https://t.co/74Khp5sHuy pic.twitter.com/pmRofSuRRb — BBC Off The Ball (@offtheballbbc) March 14, 2020
This is a new habit and hard to rewire into your brain. Forget it once and the bug can get in. In fact, the truth is that our schools are not the front line in this fight, we are. Panicking (or just being plain mischievous for the politics of it) helps no one.
Closing schools won’t help (although an early and very hot summer might). Early discovery of a cure for those suffering the most extreme reactions cannot be discounted, but most of us underestimate the scale of the preparations the government has to make.
What may look like waffle (although I don’t think Professor Leitch can be accused of that) may be to do with the fact we are all learning about what’s most effective. That means (as Mayor de Blasio says several times above) that we have to review and change.
Some of the stuff that makes sense to do at the beginning may not actually sustainable the long run. And the idea that you are going to be one of the lucky ones who don’t get it when most forecasts suggest 80% plus of us will, is, sadly, probably fanciful.
The time you don’t want to get it is in the peak period when none of our health systems will be able to cope with the demand. Washing hands works. Every two hours if you’re out and every time leave and come back into the house.
If you don’t do that, closing every school in the country won’t help you nor your most vulnerable members of your family. Here’s Prof Leitch delivering a stunning death blow to the UK’s top TV public health troll…
If you missed the mother of all take-downs here it is: in Red Corner, Piers Morgan, raging this morning about Covid-19 and in the blue corner, Prof Jason Leitch, a man in the know about #covidー19uk
This was delicious…and Susanna’s face says it all! 😎🔥🔥🔥😎 pic.twitter.com/l6tSnNPiHU — Bistua Nuova (@BistuaNuova) March 16, 2020
Politically, I have no time for Boris Johnson and his damned Brexit. And he’s struggling to contain his natural exuberance, but I don’t think that we have a choice to trust their leaders and do what we can personally do to slow the virus. I’m with Alex on this:
Extraordinary times call for unprecedented measures. These include placing some trust in our political leaders. If that means extending charity to Boris Johnson – or Nicola Sturgeon – then so be it. https://t.co/PiT0LFsPd9 — alexmassie (@alexmassie) March 18, 2020
The unilateral break in policy north-south has been regrettable and has created something of a political distraction from the real work of slowing the virus. As David Steven notes…
…crisis exerts a powerful and self-reinforcing attraction. Societies can become gripped by a cycle where conflict — and the response to that conflict — dominate the attention of leaders and citizens.
The school’s issue is slowly converging anyway and there will be plenty of time to come together afterwards. Interestingly NYC is already using them as feeding stations for the sort of kids who would be on free school meals.
We will need to evolve thousands of such small changes as we adjust to this radical change in our new human environment. What we need is, as my friend John Kellden calls ‘actionable insight’ and tons of it. We need all the help we can get to learn quickly.


sluggerotoole--2020-03-18--New Northern Ireland legacy legislation on the way at last, but with fundamental changes

Big other news announcement on the Legacy Bill which on the face of it cuts back significantly on the prospects for new investigations and prosecutions for former security forces and paramilitaries alike .
An NIO statement combines the legal investigative functions of the proposed Historical Investigations Unit with the Independent Commission on Information Retrieval .
It is proposed that these measures should be carried out by one independent body to ensure the most efficient and joined-up approach , putting the needs of the individuals most affected at the heart of the process .
This body will oversee and manage both @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the legacy system , and provide every family with a report with information concerning the death of their loved one .
Only cases in which there is a realistic prospect of a prosecution as a result of new compelling evidence would proceed to a full police investigation and if necessary , prosecution .
Cases which do not reach this threshold , or subsequently are not referred for prosecution , would be closed and no further investigations or prosecutions would be possible – though family reports would still be provided to the victims ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ give all participants the confidence and certainty to fully engage with the information recovery process .
The Government believes that this approach would deliver a fair , balanced , and proportionate system that is consistent with the principles of the Stormont House Agreement and deliver for all those who have been affected by the events of the past ; striking a balance in enabling criminal investigations to proceed where necessary , while facilitating a swift transition to an effective information recovery mechanism before this information is lost forever .
The draft Bill and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ report made much of the Chinese walls between the two bodies .
This suggests the HIU will not proceed as planned .
Brian Rowan offers his analysis here .
It means there won ’ t be full-blown investigations into the 3000-plus conflict killings , but rather desk-top reviews that will triage cases in terms of investigative possibilities .
A high bar on future prosecutions now seems likely .
Last week in a lecture to the Policy Exchange think tank the NI Attorney General John Larkin suggested a certification scheme to apply for future @ @ @ @ @ @ @ text is still pending .
The lecture itself is very technical and recommends a more restrictive approach to the European Convention on Human Rights and in particular to Article 2 , the right to life .
Most of his more accessible remarks came in Q & A ) .
Larkin said without fresh legislation , cases would “ trundle on and on because we have no statute of limitations .
If Boris Johnson wanted to change the law , “ then he should do so ; if not then we will remain as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ between ” a split second decision to open fire and a plan to plant bombs .
His preferred solution would be a “ certification ” system in which legacy allegations against former forces personnel would be assessed by a senior judge .
“ If you had a case involving a soldier who was 19 at the time and took a decision in the heat of the moment , “ the judge could take a view on whether it was in the public interest to prosecute .
Cases that were granted a certificate would @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be dismissed.
” Larkin told me he believed the parties were reaching broad agreement over how to proceed but as Rowan points out , the devil will be in the detail .

Big other news announcement on the Legacy Bill which on the face of it cuts back significantly on the prospects for new investigations and prosecutions for former security forces and paramilitaries alike. An NIO statement combines the legal investigative functions of the proposed Historical Investigations Unit with the Independent Commission on Information Retrieval.
It is proposed that these measures should be carried out by one independent body to ensure the most efficient and joined-up approach, putting the needs of the individuals most affected at the heart of the process. This body will oversee and manage both the information recovery and investigative aspects of the legacy system, and provide every family with a report with information concerning the death of their loved one.
Only cases in which there is a realistic prospect of a prosecution as a result of new compelling evidence would proceed to a full police investigation and if necessary, prosecution. Cases which do not reach this threshold, or subsequently are not referred for prosecution, would be closed and no further investigations or prosecutions would be possible – though family reports would still be provided to the victims’ loved ones. Such an approach would give all participants the confidence and certainty to fully engage with the information recovery process.
The Government believes that this approach would deliver a fair, balanced, and proportionate system that is consistent with the principles of the Stormont House Agreement and deliver for all those who have been affected by the events of the past; striking a balance in enabling criminal investigations to proceed where necessary, while facilitating a swift transition to an effective information recovery mechanism before this information is lost forever.
The draft Bill and earlier versions like Haass -O’Sullivan report made much of the Chinese walls between the two bodies. This suggests the HIU will not proceed as planned. Brian Rowan offers his analysis here.
It means there won’t be full-blown investigations into the 3000-plus conflict killings, but rather desk-top reviews that will triage cases in terms of investigative possibilities.
A high bar on future prosecutions now seems likely.
Last week in a lecture to the Policy Exchange think tank the NI Attorney General John Larkin suggested a certification scheme to apply for future former security forces prosecutions. ( A text is still pending. The lecture itself is very technical and recommends a more restrictive approach to the European Convention on Human Rights and in particular to Article 2, the right to life. Most of his more accessible remarks came in Q&A).
Larkin said without fresh legislation, cases would “trundle on and on because we have no statute of limitations. If Boris Johnson wanted to change the law, “then he should do so; if not then we will remain as we are.”
He drew a distinction between ” a split second decision to open fire and a plan to plant bombs. His preferred solution would be a “certification” system in which legacy allegations against former forces personnel would be assessed by a senior judge. “If you had a case involving a soldier who was 19 at the time and took a decision in the heat of the moment, “the judge could take a view on whether it was in the public interest to prosecute. Cases that were granted a certificate would proceed, those that were not would be dismissed.”
Larkin told me he believed the parties were reaching broad agreement over how to proceed but as Rowan points out, the devil will be in the detail.


sluggerotoole--2020-03-19--Mindfulness meditation for calm

Mindfulness meditation for calm

So I thought about and wondered what can we do on Slugger to help during this time and it dawned @ @ @ @ @ a space everyday to not think about the outside world .
I am not just @ @ @ @ @ I use mindfulness everyday and am going to for the next few days put up @ @ @ @ @ help me with anxiety .
My thinking is if they can help me , maybe @ @ @ @ @ .
On these posts I have just one rule , no talking about Coronavirus .
@ @ @ @ @ else , even better share your tips and videos below .

So I thought about and wondered what can we do on Slugger to help during this time and it dawned on me that giving people a space everyday to not think about the outside world.
I am not just posting up random videos. I use mindfulness everyday and am going to for the next few days put up the techniques and things that help me with anxiety. My thinking is if they can help me, maybe they can help somebody else.
On these posts I have just one rule, no talking about Coronavirus. Come and chat about everything else, even better share your tips and videos below.
Enjoy


sluggerotoole--2020-03-19--Not So Splendid Self Isolation…

Not So Splendid Self Isolation…

So here I am self-isolating .
It is not because of Boris Johnson .
More to do with our adult children who are worried about us .
We are not yet 70 .
Self-Isolation is terrible .
The whole point of retirement is that it is true freedom .
No more bosses .
The ultimate lack of freedom is not being allowed out .
There is too much news .
Like for example , prison officers worry about overcrowding and lack of social distancing in their places of work .
A Tory Government might have to let prisoners out .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ confine over-70s and others deemed vulnerable to our homes .
There might well turn out to a shortage of electronic tags for prisoners and pensioners .
Yet I don ’ t believe there is anything in the Tory record that suggests care for the vulnerable .
It is fashionable now to praise the heroes on the front line .
The nurses , the paramedics , the lab people and the doctors .
But it is possible to have absolute respect for the underpaid and overworked on the front line and have total contempt @ @ @ @ @ @ @ latest minister who gets to wear the NHS lapel pin .
Of course , it might all be misinformation .
There is a hierarchy of information salesmen/women .
Do you trust Laura or Robert or Beth ?
Facebook is of course risible .
But thanx to Blogging we are citizen journalists and citizen commentators .
Of course in Norn Iron , we have nationalist second rate commentators like me who occasionally become nationalist apologists .
And unionist commentators who occasionally become unionist apologists .
All genuine .
And indeed genuine “ middle ground @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that philosophy .
And really its more difficult for the middle ground folks as the mask occasionally slips and they are revealed in usually unionist colours .
The “ big picture ” is that it is increasingly difficult for “ liberal ” unionists to make their case .
In social terms ( LGBT and Women ’ s Rights ) the South has the initiative .
In economic terms , unionist support for BREXIT is another nail in the coffin , RHI where the apologists say it was only incompetence and not very important @ @ @ @ @ @ @ just three months ago , the liberal unionists were telling us we must have a government to include Sinn Féin and just six weeks ago telling us that there must be no southern government to include Sinn Féin .
I leave it to “ Boris ” to talk to “ Arlene ” and “ Michelle ” .
It is more than I would do .
The South was ahead of the game .
So were northern nationalists and parents .
Of course part of the problem is that nationalists look to Dublin .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ LetsGetAlongerists just look at their feet .
Gut feeling and Geography seemed to indicate that there was a right answer .
And that Varadkar and Nicola Sturgeon were coming across better than Johnson .
…relying on “ experts ” while previously campaigning against expert opinion .
A lot of under-investment coming home to roost .
A lot of callousness and cruelty “ universal credit ” which was meant to affect the people the Tories deemed an underclass now affects people it was not meant to affect .
Banks were bailed out a decade @ @ @ @ @ @ @ now .
And despite the promises , I just can ’ t see that ordinary people won ’ t suffer .
That ’ s how it always is .
A friend in England lost her job today .
They say it is cos of CoronaVirus but three years ago two firms merged and they were told their jobs were safe .
Likewise , landlords WILL find a way to get rid of difficult tenants and put up rents for new ones .
Employers will find a way to lay people off .
And @ @ @ @ @ @ @ out .
But Self-Isolation…house arrest is not going well .
We amuse ourselves by watching News Correspondents broadcasting from their European apartments .
Very nice .
We clearly pay them too much .
My wife chides me for looking at Joan Bakewell in much the same way that I did in 1966 .
“ Go into self-isolation with her and see if she puts up with you ” .
On the other hand , I paid no attention to Esther Rantzen and the Green Goddess .
And we worry about people who are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Patrick Stewart , Helen Mirren , Judi Dench , David Jason .
And did you notice that in Coronation Street that Geoff told Yazmeen to wash her hands and sing “ happy birthday ” ?
We thought this was the first fictional reference to Coronavirus but actually Yazmeen had had her hand round the U-bend…which is fair enough .
Yet it looks unreal .
Ken and Norris are in an old folks home which is not locked down .
And every doctor and nurse in Casualty has time to have relationship issues and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ City .
Echoing Boris Johnson ’ s call for more ventilators , the staff in the Corrie knicker factory could be reassigned to producing ventilators .
Actually these soaps are in a bubble .
But surely some urgent re-writes are in order .
Eastenders had inserts added to pre-taped stuff about general elections and the world cup .
Still , the worst part is not that our local shop has run out of Werther ’ s Originals .
As every grandparent knows “ we love to see them come down the path…..and we @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
And we miss them .
What ’ s App is not the same .
On St Patricks Night we stretched the concept of self-isolation by going for a two-hour drive over the border to Emyvale and back thru Aughnacloy .
No reason but it strikes me that as supermarkets graciously allow old folks a couple of hours to shop , we should be given a couple of hours to drive around on clear roads on summer evenings .
I hope Nicola Mallon is reading this .
Young couples getting self-isolating sick leave @ @ @ @ @ @ @ leave at Christmas .
My observation is that for elderly couples , the divorce rate will soar .
My wife thinks for elderly couples the murder rate will soar .
Photo by cottonbro is licensed under CC0

So here I am self-isolating.
It is not because of Boris Johnson. More to do with our adult children who are worried about us. We are not yet 70.
Self-Isolation is terrible. The whole point of retirement is that it is true freedom. No more bosses. The ultimate lack of freedom is not being allowed out.
There is too much news. Like for example, prison officers worry about overcrowding and lack of social distancing in their places of work. A Tory Government might have to let prisoners out. And might actually empower police officers to confine over-70s and others deemed vulnerable to our homes. There might well turn out to a shortage of electronic tags for prisoners and pensioners. Yet I don’t believe there is anything in the Tory record that suggests care for the vulnerable.
It is fashionable now to praise the heroes on the front line. The nurses, the paramedics, the lab people and the doctors. But it is possible to have absolute respect for the underpaid and overworked on the front line and have total contempt for the overpaid Sir Humphreys protecting the latest minister who gets to wear the NHS lapel pin.
Of course, it might all be misinformation.
There is a hierarchy of information salesmen/women. Do you trust Laura or Robert or Beth?
Do you trust Johnson? Patel? Hancock?
Facebook is of course risible.
But thanx to Blogging we are citizen journalists and citizen commentators.
Of course in Norn Iron, we have nationalist second rate commentators like me who occasionally become nationalist apologists. And unionist commentators who occasionally become unionist apologists. All genuine. And indeed genuine “middle ground” commentators who occasionally become apologists for that philosophy. And really its more difficult for the middle ground folks as the mask occasionally slips and they are revealed in usually unionist colours.
The “big picture” is that it is increasingly difficult for “liberal” unionists to make their case. In social terms (LGBT and Women’s Rights) the South has the initiative. In economic terms, unionist support for BREXIT is another nail in the coffin, RHI where the apologists say it was only incompetence and not very important anyway. And…Coronavirus.
Of course, just three months ago, the liberal unionists were telling us we must have a government to include Sinn Féin and just six weeks ago telling us that there must be no southern government to include Sinn Féin. I leave it to “Boris” to talk to “Arlene” and “Michelle”. It is more than I would do.
Take “expert” opinion. Take school closures.
The South was ahead of the game. So were northern nationalists and parents. Of course part of the problem is that nationalists look to Dublin. And unionists look to London. And LetsGetAlongerists just look at their feet. Gut feeling and Geography seemed to indicate that there was a right answer. And that Varadkar and Nicola Sturgeon were coming across better than Johnson. …relying on “experts” while previously campaigning against expert opinion.
A lot of under-investment coming home to roost. A lot of callousness and cruelty “universal credit” which was meant to affect the people the Tories deemed an underclass now affects people it was not meant to affect. Banks were bailed out a decade ago. Airlines will be bailed out now. And despite the promises, I just can’t see that ordinary people won’t suffer. That’s how it always is. A friend in England lost her job today. They say it is cos of CoronaVirus but three years ago two firms merged and they were told their jobs were safe.
Likewise, landlords WILL find a way to get rid of difficult tenants and put up rents for new ones. Employers will find a way to lay people off. And landlords and employers will have their hands out.
But Self-Isolation…house arrest is not going well.
We amuse ourselves by watching News Correspondents broadcasting from their European apartments. Very nice. We clearly pay them too much. My wife chides me for looking at Joan Bakewell in much the same way that I did in 1966. “Go into self-isolation with her and see if she puts up with you”. On the other hand, I paid no attention to Esther Rantzen and the Green Goddess. And we worry about people who are over 70… celebs like Jeremy Corbyn, Patrick Stewart, Helen Mirren, Judi Dench, David Jason.
And did you notice that in Coronation Street that Geoff told Yazmeen to wash her hands and sing “happy birthday”? We thought this was the first fictional reference to Coronavirus but actually Yazmeen had had her hand round the U-bend…which is fair enough. Yet it looks unreal. Ken and Norris are in an old folks home which is not locked down. And every doctor and nurse in Casualty has time to have relationship issues and there are no ventilator problems in Holby City.
Echoing Boris Johnson’s call for more ventilators, the staff in the Corrie knicker factory could be reassigned to producing ventilators.
Actually these soaps are in a bubble. But surely some urgent re-writes are in order. Eastenders had inserts added to pre-taped stuff about general elections and the world cup.
Still, the worst part is not that our local shop has run out of Werther’s Originals. As every grandparent knows “we love to see them come down the path…..and we love to see them go home”. And we miss them. What’s App is not the same.
On St Patricks Night we stretched the concept of self-isolation by going for a two-hour drive over the border to Emyvale and back thru Aughnacloy. No reason but it strikes me that as supermarkets graciously allow old folks a couple of hours to shop, we should be given a couple of hours to drive around on clear roads on summer evenings. I hope Nicola Mallon is reading this.
Young couples getting self-isolating sick leave now will be getting paternity and maternity leave at Christmas.
My observation is that for elderly couples, the divorce rate will soar. My wife thinks for elderly couples the murder rate will soar.
Photo by cottonbro is licensed under CC0


sluggerotoole--2020-03-19--Online Teaching – A guide for teachers and parents…

I spent the past few days helping my local school get ready for teaching online .
As of yesterday , schools have gotten no official guidance at all on how to do this , they have been left to sort it out themselves .
In this post , I will outline how it all works .
For schools , you will likely be using Google Classroom .
This is free to schools and you will access this via your C2k email address .
Login and create a class .
You then need to send out all the pupil logins ( @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and the pupils will also get an access code that lets them access the Google classroom .
Remember you can access Google Classroom from anywhere , you do not need to be on school premises you can use it from home .
For smartphones or tablets , you can download the Google Classroom app for Android and Apple .
Here is a quick video overview of how it works : Video tips for teachers on how to use google classroom : https : //www.youtube.com/ playlist ?
list= PLP7Bvyb3ap44G3Gt_ mTxOHoCcIYTBIixg Some schools are considering @ @ @ @ @ @ @ one hour a day .
There is no live streaming option in Google Classroom but you can use Youtube Live or a system like Zoom .
Zoom are lifting their limits on their free plan for teachers .
I am not exactly clear what systems ( if any ) C2k has for live streaming so if you know please add a comment .
As a teacher , you may find live streaming not worth the hassle , in which case you can just record video clips on your phone and attach these to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ On a laptop or computer , you can access it via their website at : https : //classroom.google.com For smartphones or tablets , you can download the app for Android and Apple To sign in to Google Classroom you will use your children school email , password and class ID , this information will be sent to you via the SeeSaw app or however your school normally communicates with you .
If your child is using a phone or tablet I recommend you get a Bluetooth keyboard to make it easier for them @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a Bluetooth keyboard from as little as £15 on Amazon .
If you plan to get your child a laptop , Google Classroom is web-based so will work on any device .
The best laptop for a child is a Chromebook and you can get these from £180 on Amazon .
For extra savings look in the Amazon Warehouse section .
I recommend going for one with a 13″ or 14″ inch screen but if your child has good eyesight the 11″ ones might do the job ok. As you can imagine this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of schools so please be patient .
This is a learning experience for everyone .
Any questions or tips please feel free to ask in the comments .
Photo by Andrea Piacquadio is licensed under CC0

I spent the past few days helping my local school get ready for teaching online. As of yesterday, schools have gotten no official guidance at all on how to do this, they have been left to sort it out themselves. In this post, I will outline how it all works.
For schools, you will likely be using Google Classroom . This is free to schools and you will access this via your C2k email address. Login and create a class. You then need to send out all the pupil logins (your C2K manager will have these) and the pupils will also get an access code that lets them access the Google classroom.
Remember you can access Google Classroom from anywhere, you do not need to be on school premises you can use it from home.
For smartphones or tablets, you can download the Google Classroom app for Android and Apple.
Here is a quick video overview of how it works:
Video tips for teachers on how to use google classroom:
https://www.youtube.com/ playlist?list= PLP7Bvyb3ap44G3Gt_ mTxOHoCcIYTBIixg
Help guide:
https://support.google.com/ edu/classroom/?hl=en-GB
Live streaming classes
Some schools are considering live streaming some classes, eg for one hour a day. There is no live streaming option in Google Classroom but you can use Youtube Live or a system like Zoom. Zoom are lifting their limits on their free plan for teachers. I am not exactly clear what systems (if any) C2k has for live streaming so if you know please add a comment. As a teacher, you may find live streaming not worth the hassle, in which case you can just record video clips on your phone and attach these to Google Classroom or send via SeeSaw. Guide for parents How to access Google Classroom On a laptop or computer, you can access it via their website at: https://classroom.google.com For smartphones or tablets, you can download the app for Android and Apple To sign in to Google Classroom you will use your children school email, password and class ID, this information will be sent to you via the SeeSaw app or however your school normally communicates with you. Other advice: If your child is using a phone or tablet I recommend you get a Bluetooth keyboard to make it easier for them to type on. You can get a Bluetooth keyboard from as little as £15 on Amazon. If you plan to get your child a laptop, Google Classroom is web-based so will work on any device. The best laptop for a child is a Chromebook and you can get these from £180 on Amazon. For extra savings look in the Amazon Warehouse section. I recommend going for one with a 13″ or 14″ inch screen but if your child has good eyesight the 11″ ones might do the job ok. As you can imagine this will be all new to a lot of schools so please be patient. This is a learning experience for everyone. Any questions or tips please feel free to ask in the comments. Photo by Andrea Piacquadio is licensed under CC0


sluggerotoole--2020-03-19--Betty Williams and Mairead Corrigan: a recollection of the origins of the Peace People

As a young reporter at the Finaghy Road North scene of the tragic death of her sister ’ s three children , I inadvertently broke the news on camera to Mairead Corrigan that the third child had died .
It was a moment that echoed the horror of the terrible event itself .
After Mairead ’ s powerful appeal for peace – one of so many from victims and survivors in those years – there followed the scathing interview with a near neighbour across the invisible interface , Betty Williams .
who has just died .
The incident was one @ @ @ @ @ @ @ off as an international story : the biggest funerals ever seen in west Belfast until the hunger strike six years later ; the founding of a movement that developed a peace ideology ; apotheosis of a kind with the joint award of the Nobel Peace Prize a few months later .
Even for me it was quite a journey from Finaghy Road North to the Konserthuset in Oslo .
For a moment it looked as if a surge for peace might have swamped the mainsprings of sectarian violence .
But it was not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ shown to them , even the “ constitutional ” politicians by and large stayed aloof from the caravan , nor wishing to be superseded by these grass roots unaligned interlopers .
Ciaran Mc Keown a journalist with a mission for peace joined to develop the idea of a peace strategy and earned for himself a reputation as something of a Svengali .
Like many such movements the Peace People began to acquire a bigger reputation abroad than at home .
This was unfair as their best legacy survives in the myriad interactions that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Did Betty and Mairead personally drink the cup of peace or share a poisoned chalice ?
A bit of both I think .
There were hurt feelings and back biting about a fur coat when Betty kept the money , by no means the only time that this caused controversy with a joint award .
And of course they suffered from our old levelling , negative culture “ who do you think you are ?
” For the Corrigan family the loss of the children was only the beginning of tragedy .
Nobel @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sparked the award itself .
Betty Williams became more of a prophet in an international peace network than at home and seemed something of a lost soul .
Their Northern Ireland successors with the Peace Prize Trimble and Hume were altogether more experienced and robust individuals in more promising circumstances .
Peace it turned out could not be won over the heads of paramilitaries and politicians .
But goodness , how eloquent and brave were Betty Williams and Mairead Corrigan in their time .

As a young reporter at the Finaghy Road North scene of the tragic death of her sister’s three children, I inadvertently broke the news on camera to Mairead Corrigan that the third child had died. It was a moment that echoed the horror of the terrible event itself. After Mairead’s powerful appeal for peace – one of so many from victims and survivors in those years – there followed the scathing interview with a near neighbour across the invisible interface, Betty Williams. who has just died .
The incident was one of those moments when the Troubles took off as an international story: the biggest funerals ever seen in west Belfast until the hunger strike six years later; the founding of a movement that developed a peace ideology; apotheosis of a kind with the joint award of the Nobel Peace Prize a few months later. Even for me it was quite a journey from Finaghy Road North to the Konserthuset in Oslo.
For a moment it looked as if a surge for peace might have swamped the mainsprings of sectarian violence. But it was not to be. Behind the surface reverence shown to them, even the “constitutional” politicians by and large stayed aloof from the caravan, nor wishing to be superseded by these grass roots unaligned interlopers. Ciaran Mc Keown a journalist with a mission for peace joined to develop the idea of a peace strategy and earned for himself a reputation as something of a Svengali. Like many such movements the Peace People began to acquire a bigger reputation abroad than at home. This was unfair as their best legacy survives in the myriad interactions that keep the peace to this day.
Did Betty and Mairead personally drink the cup of peace or share a poisoned chalice? A bit of both I think. There were hurt feelings and back biting about a fur coat when Betty kept the money, by no means the only time that this caused controversy with a joint award. And of course they suffered from our old levelling, negative culture “who do you think you are?”
For the Corrigan family the loss of the children was only the beginning of tragedy. Nobel celebrity added to the personal trauma that sparked the award itself. Betty Williams became more of a prophet in an international peace network than at home and seemed something of a lost soul. Their Northern Ireland successors with the Peace Prize Trimble and Hume were altogether more experienced and robust individuals in more promising circumstances. Peace it turned out could not be won over the heads of paramilitaries and politicians. But goodness, how eloquent and brave were Betty Williams and Mairead Corrigan in their time.


sluggerotoole--2020-03-19--Northern Ireland’s row over policy divergences is a lethal distraction

I can only echo Newton Emerson ’ s thoughts today on the spat we ’ ve been having this week over school closures .
It ’ s doubtful that the row itself has done any serious damage but it is ominous in the sense that NI can not afford to split down the middle .
Whatever time you think you have before locking down , half it , and then once again .
Then figure we have to do it again .
And again .
You might be wrong , but school closures are no silver bullet and we have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
PR departments in public and private sectors used to working on delivering projects over months now struggle with massive day to day changes .
That ’ s in cases where there is just one CEO .
In NI , we have two who are barely seen together and seem not to talk and a ministerial workforce that splits five ways .
Whatever their parties believe , this has to change and it has to change fast .
As Newton notes in his other great column today [ busy man – Ed ] @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to a near shutdown of society must be maintained until a vaccine is available , estimated to take 12 to 18 months .
Otherwise , the peak will return as soon as measures are lifted .
If this happens in autumn or winter , the impact will be worse than adopting mitigation now .
The report says the necessary measures , with or without school closures , are unlikely to be sustainable for 12 to 18 months .
Screw-ups from top to bottom of the system are inevitable .
The point is to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ recriminate or blame set but we have to move quickly in changing tack or doubling back to shift things that aren ’ t working or useful .
And communicate it .
Quickly .
In the Irish Times he makes a point which I hope will be heard loud and clear in the Taoiseach ’ s office : The Republic announced its closures last Thursday .
Northern Ireland anticipated closing its schools by Easter at the latest .
Every day without action counts , and the North is two weeks behind the South in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are at different stages because of their different societies and economies .
There was never any need to make this a constitutional issue .
Comparable differences occur at a regional level within countries , including the UK , where London is two weeks ahead of everywhere else .
North-South distinctions might break down in Ireland around the Border , along with the effectiveness of separate measures – a concern voiced this week by Tánaiste Simon Coveney .
But this is an issue on most borders in Europe .
Some countries are responding by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as Belgium and Holland , are having their own arguments over synchronising closures .
There is nothing special about being an island .
There is still a need for Dublin and Belfast to co-ordinate policies , perhaps with unique advice for the Border region .
Neither administration considered this a priority when making and communicating their plans .
[ Emphasis added ] In reality , it was the Taoiseach who having the larger problem triggered a southern shutdown of schools from Washington , with a minimum of notice Arlene Foster and Michelle O @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and polarising argument within NI .
The idea that this we are all in this together is not some quaint misleading quote from a modern musical you hope never to have to see , it ’ s a new reality .
I have family and friends across the globe and we are all in the same emergency and state of uncertainty .
Having a unified plan is stage one of dealing effectively with the problem .
It can be incomplete or even downright wrong it doesn ’ t so long as you learn @ @ @ @ @ @ @ mind of the old story about a lost army unit : A small group of Hungarian troops were camped in the Alps during the First World War .
Their commander , a young lieutenant , decided to send out a small group of men on a scouting mission .
Shortly after the scouting group left it began to snow , and it snowed steadily for two days .
The scouting squad did not return , and the young officer , something of an intellectual and an idealist , suffered a paroxysm of guilt @ @ @ @ @ @ @ death .
In his torment he questioned not only his decision to send out the scouting mission , but also the war itself and his own role in it .
He was a man tormented .
Suddenly , unexpectedly , on the third day the long-overdue scouting squad returned .
There was great joy , great relief in the camp , and the young commander questioned his men eagerly .
“ Where were you ?
” he asked .
“ How did you survive , how did you find your way back ?
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ scouts replied , “ We were lost in the snow and we had given up hope , had resigned ourselves to die .
Then one of the men found a map in his pocket .
With its help we knew we could find our way back .
We made camp , waited for the snow to stop , and then as soon as we could travel we returned here.
” The young commander asked to see this wonderful map .
It was a map not of the Alps but of the Pyrenees !
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ doubt .
The core philosophy of Science is about drawing out the known from the uncertain from Francis Bacon onward .
The truth is we don ’ t know where this is going or how we will eventually bring it to a standstill .
There is no secular god in a white coat from WHO guiding all this .
In fact the UK advice from Imperial Colleges that informed the sudden switch in the UK ’ s policy is likely to affect a global change in thinking about how to deal with this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to the morale that is to hear there are no further domestic deaths in China , the suppression of the virus techniques that we see there and in Italy is only a crisis management tool , not necessarily an end game .
That ’ s today , of course .
Our ability to get through this is will depend on copious amounts of medical , social and economic innovation on , of course , a global scale .
What we are dealing with the Jungian shadow of a rapid globalisation process that has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Northern Ireland has to get a grip on itself .
We need a more honest conversation with those charged with the decisions we need them to take together to save what passes for our society .
It ’ s not good enough to walk away shaking your head .
Photo by Pixabay is licensed under CC0

I can only echo Newton Emerson’s thoughts today on the spat we’ve been having this week over school closures. It’s doubtful that the row itself has done any serious damage but it is ominous in the sense that NI cannot afford to split down the middle.
Whatever time you think you have before locking down, half it, and then once again. Then figure we have to do it again. And again. You might be wrong, but school closures are no silver bullet and we have to revisit our whole thinking several times.
PR departments in public and private sectors used to working on delivering projects over months now struggle with massive day to day changes.
That’s in cases where there is just one CEO. In NI, we have two who are barely seen together and seem not to talk and a ministerial workforce that splits five ways. Whatever their parties believe, this has to change and it has to change fast.
As Newton notes in his other great column today [busy man – Ed] for the Irish News:
Measures amounting to a near shutdown of society must be maintained until a vaccine is available, estimated to take 12 to 18 months. Otherwise, the peak will return as soon as measures are lifted. If this happens in autumn or winter, the impact will be worse than adopting mitigation now. The report says the necessary measures, with or without school closures, are unlikely to be sustainable for 12 to 18 months.
Screw-ups from top to bottom of the system are inevitable. The point is to we don’t have time to recriminate or blame set but we have to move quickly in changing tack or doubling back to shift things that aren’t working or useful. And communicate it.
Quickly. In the Irish Times he makes a point which I hope will be heard loud and clear in the Taoiseach’s office:
The Republic announced its closures last Thursday. Northern Ireland anticipated closing its schools by Easter at the latest. Every day without action counts, and the North is two weeks behind the South in the epidemic. Both parts of Ireland are at different stages because of their different societies and economies. There was never any need to make this a constitutional issue. Comparable differences occur at a regional level within countries, including the UK, where London is two weeks ahead of everywhere else. North-South distinctions might break down in Ireland around the Border, along with the effectiveness of separate measures – a concern voiced this week by Tánaiste Simon Coveney. But this is an issue on most borders in Europe. Some countries are responding by closing their frontiers. Others, such as Belgium and Holland, are having their own arguments over synchronising closures. There is nothing special about being an island. There is still a need for Dublin and Belfast to co-ordinate policies, perhaps with unique advice for the Border region. Neither administration considered this a priority when making and communicating their plans. [Emphasis added]
In reality, it was the Taoiseach who having the larger problem triggered a southern shutdown of schools from Washington, with a minimum of notice Arlene Foster and Michelle O’Neill. It unleashed a dangerous and polarising argument within NI.
The idea that this we are all in this together is not some quaint misleading quote from a modern musical you hope never to have to see, it’s a new reality. I have family and friends across the globe and we are all in the same emergency and state of uncertainty.
Having a unified plan is stage one of dealing effectively with the problem. It can be incomplete or even downright wrong it doesn’t so long as you learn and change. It puts me in mind of the old story about a lost army unit:
A small group of Hungarian troops were camped in the Alps during the First World War. Their commander, a young lieutenant, decided to send out a small group of men on a scouting mission. Shortly after the scouting group left it began to snow, and it snowed steadily for two days. The scouting squad did not return, and the young officer, something of an intellectual and an idealist, suffered a paroxysm of guilt over having sent his men to their death. In his torment he questioned not only his decision to send out the scouting mission, but also the war itself and his own role in it. He was a man tormented. Suddenly, unexpectedly, on the third day the long-overdue scouting squad returned. There was great joy, great relief in the camp, and the young commander questioned his men eagerly. “Where were you?” he asked. “How did you survive, how did you find your way back?” The sergeant who had led the scouts replied, “We were lost in the snow and we had given up hope, had resigned ourselves to die. Then one of the men found a map in his pocket. With its help we knew we could find our way back. We made camp, waited for the snow to stop, and then as soon as we could travel we returned here.” The young commander asked to see this wonderful map. It was a map not of the Alps but of the Pyrenees!
It’s okay to engage with doubt. The core philosophy of Science is about drawing out the known from the uncertain from Francis Bacon onward. The truth is we don’t know where this is going or how we will eventually bring it to a standstill.
There is no secular god in a white coat from WHO guiding all this. In fact the UK advice from Imperial Colleges that informed the sudden switch in the UK’s policy is likely to affect a global change in thinking about how to deal with this. Newton again:
The Imperial College report is not an outlier. The University of Edinburgh says it expects the World Health Organization to accept lengthy suppression is unsustainable and downgrade its advice.
A great boost to the morale that is to hear there are no further domestic deaths in China, the suppression of the virus techniques that we see there and in Italy is only a crisis management tool, not necessarily an end game. That’s today, of course.
Our ability to get through this is will depend on copious amounts of medical, social and economic innovation on, of course, a global scale. What we are dealing with the Jungian shadow of a rapid globalisation process that has shot this virus across oceans in weeks.
Northern Ireland has to get a grip on itself. We need a more honest conversation with those charged with the decisions we need them to take together to save what passes for our society. It’s not good enough to walk away shaking your head.
Photo by Pixabay is licensed under CC0