sluggerotoole--2020-05-05--If the UK doesn’t change its disastrous contact tracing app strategy, Northern Ireland should align

If the UK doesn’t change its disastrous contact tracing app strategy, Northern Ireland should align with the Irish government approach

As trials of the British government ’ s coronavirus contact tracing app begin this week on the Isle of Wight , serious questions have been raised about the design of the application and its potential effectiveness .
There are two broad categories of contact tracing app : the centralised approach , where data from phones is sent to a central database where contact data can be analysed , or the decentralised approach , where in order to protect user privacy contact data is analysed on phones without the need for a central database .
Unlike most countries , the UK @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a centralised system , whilst the Irish government is advocating the decentralised approach .
Theoretically , there are arguments for either approach , from the perspective of the trade-off between privacy and the government having richer data through which to analyse the spread of the virus .
However , in practice the centralised approach advocated by the British government is likely to be vastly less effective than the decentralised approach .
Apple and Google , who release the iOS and Android operating systems used by virtually all modern smartphones , are only allowing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Exposure Notification API .
Contact tracing apps that use this API are allowed to transmit to other nearby phones using Bluetooth even whilst users don ’ t have the contact tracing app in the foreground , or whilst a phone is locked .
Therefore , phones using the UK government app will generally only be able to transmit to other phones if they are unlocked and the app is being used , whilst apps using the decentralised approach such as the Irish government app will be able to register contacts with other users @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the app is in the background .
There are a couple of exceptions to this rule for centralised contact tracing apps .
Phones running older versions of Android ( version 7 or earlier ) will be able to transmit whilst the phone is locked , and newer Android phones will be able to transmit for “ several minutes ” after the app is put into background mode .
However , phones running iOS will not be able to transmit to other nearby phones at all unless the app is in the foreground .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ will be able to “ receive ” messages at any time , a contact will only be made if there is another phone running the app in the foreground , or an older Android phone , in the immediate vicinity to transmit a message to tell the app to wake up .
For example , if three people carrying an iPhone are standing close to each other , the UK app will not register a contact .
However , if they were joined by a person carrying an Android 7 phone , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ up and they would all register contacts with each other .
Roughly 77 % of UK adults use a smartphone , of which 52.3 % run iOS and 47.5 % run Android .
Amongst Android phones , only 24 % run Android 7 or earlier and will therefore be able to run in “ transmit ” mode even when the phone is locked .
If we allow that iPhones and newer Android phones will be in transmit mode 1 % and 2 % of the time respectively , if 100 % of smartphones @ @ @ @ @ @ @ then the probability of a random adult having a smartphone operating on “ transmit ” mode at any given time is 7.7 % if they are running the UK centralised approach app , and 77 % if they are running the Irish government ’ s decentralised app .
Of course , a 100 % uptake of the software amongst smartphone users is unrealistic .
The country with the highest incidence of contact tracing app installs , Singapore , currently has a 20 % uptake rate .
The Australian government is aiming for 40 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ probability of at least one adult carrying a smartphone on “ transmit ” mode , if there was a group of x people ( including you ) , with 40 % uptake amongst all adults of the contact tracing app .
Therefore the probability of you receiving a contact notification if you are in a group of x adults , one of whom subsequently tests positive for Covid-19 , with centralised and decentralised apps is shown in the chart below .
The infographic at the top of the page illustrates the probability of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ size 2 , 4 and 10 if one person subsequently receives a Covid-19 diagnosis .
It is worth noting that this analysis assumes that all people have an equal probability of installing the contact tracing app .
In reality , it could well be the case that less tech-savvy people are more likely to have the vital older versions of Android ( Nougat , Marshmallow , Oreo , Lollipop , and older ) needed for the system to work , but also less likely to install the app in the first place .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ on many people installing the app on Android phones that are more than three years old .
If the UK decided to adopt the decentralised approach , it would be able to avail of the Exposure Notification API , and these issues would not exist .
The percentage of people running older versions of Android will naturally fall over time as people upgrade their phones .
Whilst Google and Apple generally only allow one contact tracing app per country , flexibility is being shown where one country can have different systems , for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
If the UK government can not be dissuaded from pursuing their current approach , then Northern Ireland should follow the much more effective strategy of using a decentralised approach and align with the Republic .

As trials of the British government’s coronavirus contact tracing app begin this week on the Isle of Wight, serious questions have been raised about the design of the application and its potential effectiveness.
There are two broad categories of contact tracing app: the centralised approach, where data from phones is sent to a central database where contact data can be analysed, or the decentralised approach, where in order to protect user privacy contact data is analysed on phones without the need for a central database.
Unlike most countries, the UK is going down the path of having a centralised system, whilst the Irish government is advocating the decentralised approach.
Theoretically, there are arguments for either approach, from the perspective of the trade-off between privacy and the government having richer data through which to analyse the spread of the virus. However, in practice the centralised approach advocated by the British government is likely to be vastly less effective than the decentralised approach.
Apple and Google, who release the iOS and Android operating systems used by virtually all modern smartphones, are only allowing decentralised contact tracing apps to use the Exposure Notification API. Contact tracing apps that use this API are allowed to transmit to other nearby phones using Bluetooth even whilst users don’t have the contact tracing app in the foreground, or whilst a phone is locked.
Therefore, phones using the UK government app will generally only be able to transmit to other phones if they are unlocked and the app is being used, whilst apps using the decentralised approach such as the Irish government app will be able to register contacts with other users even if both phones are locked or the app is in the background.
There are a couple of exceptions to this rule for centralised contact tracing apps. Phones running older versions of Android (version 7 or earlier) will be able to transmit whilst the phone is locked, and newer Android phones will be able to transmit for “several minutes” after the app is put into background mode. However, phones running iOS will not be able to transmit to other nearby phones at all unless the app is in the foreground.
Whilst phones running the UK government app will be able to “receive” messages at any time, a contact will only be made if there is another phone running the app in the foreground, or an older Android phone, in the immediate vicinity to transmit a message to tell the app to wake up. For example, if three people carrying an iPhone are standing close to each other, the UK app will not register a contact. However, if they were joined by a person carrying an Android 7 phone, the older Android phone would wake the others up and they would all register contacts with each other.
Roughly 77% of UK adults use a smartphone, of which 52.3% run iOS and 47.5% run Android. Amongst Android phones, only 24% run Android 7 or earlier and will therefore be able to run in “transmit” mode even when the phone is locked. If we allow that iPhones and newer Android phones will be in transmit mode 1% and 2% of the time respectively, if 100% of smartphones had a contact tracing app installed, then the probability of a random adult having a smartphone operating on “transmit” mode at any given time is 7.7% if they are running the UK centralised approach app, and 77% if they are running the Irish government’s decentralised app.
Of course, a 100% uptake of the software amongst smartphone users is unrealistic. The country with the highest incidence of contact tracing app installs, Singapore, currently has a 20% uptake rate. The Australian government is aiming for 40%.
The chart below shows the probability of at least one adult carrying a smartphone on “transmit” mode, if there was a group of x people (including you), with 40% uptake amongst all adults of the contact tracing app.
Therefore the probability of you receiving a contact notification if you are in a group of x adults, one of whom subsequently tests positive for Covid-19, with centralised and decentralised apps is shown in the chart below.
The infographic at the top of the page illustrates the probability of receiving a contact notification for groups of size 2, 4 and 10 if one person subsequently receives a Covid-19 diagnosis.
It is worth noting that this analysis assumes that all people have an equal probability of installing the contact tracing app. In reality, it could well be the case that less tech-savvy people are more likely to have the vital older versions of Android (Nougat, Marshmallow, Oreo, Lollipop, and older) needed for the system to work, but also less likely to install the app in the first place.
The proposed UK system will rely heavily on many people installing the app on Android phones that are more than three years old. If the UK decided to adopt the decentralised approach, it would be able to avail of the Exposure Notification API, and these issues would not exist. The percentage of people running older versions of Android will naturally fall over time as people upgrade their phones.
Whilst Google and Apple generally only allow one contact tracing app per country, flexibility is being shown where one country can have different systems, for example different states in the United States. If the UK government cannot be dissuaded from pursuing their current approach, then Northern Ireland should follow the much more effective strategy of using a decentralised approach and align with the Republic.


sluggerotoole--2020-05-05--Normal People depicts an Irish generation to appreciative millions that is at last growing up normal

Normal People depicts an Irish generation to appreciative millions that is at last growing up normally

Irish pornhub or a touching rite of passage ?
Critics are divided and that may be an age thing .
But there ’ s no doubt that the TV series based on Sally Rooney ’ s rather minimal novel about the relationship between Sligo teenagers is a smash hit .
This boomer old enough to be their grandparent is still getting over the fact that a drama about relationships set in a C21 Irish high school and small town has not a hint of Girl With Green Eyes tortured background nor anything of John McGahern ’ s sadistic Christian Brothers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bitterly disappointed father at home .
Indeed Normal People has no fathers at all and not a sign of a Hail Mary that I noticed .
Holy Ireland may be dead and gone but Connell and Marianne still have other mountains to climb .
So what ’ s the problem ?
Class , and the tug of the mundane normal it seems .
Although they both love to read , their mutual attraction is carnal .
Apparently free to develop their autonomy , they are both oddballs forced to hide their full sensitivity @ @ @ @ @ @ @ can talk a storm of lit crit but are just articulate enough with each other to let us know what ’ s going on between them and inside their own heads .
Connell suffers agonies of peer pressure from his mates ( whom he really likes by the way ) joshing him in the usual way of “ what was she like ?
” Marianne , resigned to being thought arrogant as well as clever is hated for holding herself aloof from girlie smut and is further isolated as the daughter of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a Big House where Connell ’ s Mum does the cleaning .
Connell starts off more socially adept but the tables are turned later .
The sex is revealing in more ways than the obvious ; Marianne quietly but insistently leading for her first time , Connell , shy but practiced , reaching into a drawer for a condom , a historic act for my generation .
Can the relationship survive translation to the big city and the grandeur of Trinity ?
The normally staid Times went orgasmic on the front page .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ than 16 million times on iPlayer in its first week of release , smashing online viewing records set by Killing Eve .
The BBC adaptation of Sally Rooney ’ s novel attracted 16.2 million programme requests in just seven days , after the entire series was made available to binge on April 26 .
This includes nearly five million requests from viewers aged 16 to 34 , the crucial youth demographic that the BBC is desperate to lure back from rival services such as Netflix and YouTube .
BBC Three , the corporation @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rack up 21.8 million requests last week .
This is more than double the 10.8 million total requests BBC Three received in the seven days after the release of Phoebe Waller-Bridge ’ s Killing Eve in 2018 .
Critics have praised Normal People for its tender depiction of young love and realistic sex .
The 12-part series , based on the Irish author ’ s 2018 novel , tracks the relationship between Connell , a popular working-class teenager , played by Paul Mescal , and his middle-class girlfriend Marianne , played by Daisy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ adaptation of Conversations With Friends , Rooney ’ s 2017 debut novel .
From the Times ’ twenty something James Marriot None of us will be young again .
But we should take the experience of being young as seriously as the moody teenagers in Normal People do .
We were all forged in that frightening , thrilling and unrepeatable time of life .
We had cheeseburgers from Five Guys with the children at 5pm then shared a glass of cheap champagne in front of four mournful episodes of that show about miserable @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and were asleep by nine .
The series adapted from the Sally Rooney novel is a tedious reworking of a romance plot as old as time .
I ’ d rather read an honest bodice-ripper .
More from the rare Times puff for the BBC BBC executives will be relieved by the drama ’ s popularity on iPlayer as its early ratings on traditional scheduled television have been modest .
The first two episodes broadcast on BBC One on Monday last week were seen by 2.2 million and 2 million people respectively , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for 9pm .
The national broadcaster is planning to plough tens of millions of pounds into youth programming to stem the loss of millennial and Generation Z viewers .
Lord Hall of Birkenhead , the director-general , has hinted that BBC Three could be given a more visible presence on the corporation ’ s broadcast channels , with an announcement expected shortly .
Shutting BBC Three as a broadcast channel in 2016 is widely seen to have been a mistake .
Fiona Campbell , ( from Belfast incidentally ) the controller of BBC @ @ @ @ @ @ @ re delighted that Normal People has been such a success and so many people have come to iPlayer to watch it .
“ From the initial read-through , the phenomenal thought and preparation the directors put into everything from the aesthetics and locations through to the costumes , we felt this piece would always be incredibly unique and it ’ s clear the audience thinks so too .
In the opening two episodes alone , there are bountiful reminders of how that stage of life is filled with as much pain as it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fragile and filled with self-doubt as they try to figure out who they are and how to take their next steps together .
And you can ’ t but root for them .

Irish pornhub or a touching rite of passage? Critics are divided and that may be an age thing. But there’s no doubt that the TV series based on Sally Rooney’s rather minimal novel about the relationship between Sligo teenagers is a smash hit. This boomer old enough to be their grandparent is still getting over the fact that a drama about relationships set in a C21 Irish high school and small town has not a hint of Girl With Green Eyes tortured background nor anything of John McGahern’s sadistic Christian Brothers in the classroom and a savage, bitterly disappointed father at home. Indeed Normal People has no fathers at all and not a sign of a Hail Mary that I noticed.
Holy Ireland may be dead and gone but Connell and Marianne still have other mountains to climb. So what’s the problem? Class, and the tug of the mundane normal it seems. Although they both love to read, their mutual attraction is carnal. Apparently free to develop their autonomy, they are both oddballs forced to hide their full sensitivity, even from each other. Each can talk a storm of lit crit but are just articulate enough with each other to let us know what’s going on between them and inside their own heads. Connell suffers agonies of peer pressure from his mates (whom he really likes by the way) joshing him in the usual way of “ what was she like?” Marianne, resigned to being thought arrogant as well as clever is hated for holding herself aloof from girlie smut and is further isolated as the daughter of the nearest thing the Sligo town has to a Big House where Connell’s Mum does the cleaning. Connell starts off more socially adept but the tables are turned later.
The sex is revealing in more ways than the obvious; Marianne quietly but insistently leading for her first time, Connell, shy but practiced, reaching into a drawer for a condom, a historic act for my generation. Can the relationship survive translation to the big city and the grandeur of Trinity?
The normally staid Times went orgasmic on the front page.
Episodes of Normal People were streamed more than 16 million times on iPlayer in its first week of release, smashing online viewing records set by Killing Eve.
The BBC adaptation of Sally Rooney’s novel attracted 16.2 million programme requests in just seven days, after the entire series was made available to binge on April 26.
This includes nearly five million requests from viewers aged 16 to 34, the crucial youth demographic that the BBC is desperate to lure back from rival services such as Netflix and YouTube.
BBC Three, the corporation’s online-only youth strand, to rack up 21.8 million requests last week. This is more than double the 10.8 million total requests BBC Three received in the seven days after the release of Phoebe Waller-Bridge’s Killing Eve in 2018.
Critics have praised Normal People for its tender depiction of young love and realistic sex.
The 12-part series, based on the Irish author’s 2018 novel, tracks the relationship between Connell, a popular working-class teenager, played by Paul Mescal, and his middle-class girlfriend Marianne, played by Daisy Edgar-Jones.The BBC has already commissioned a follow-up adaptation of Conversations With Friends, Rooney’s 2017 debut novel.
From the Times’ twenty something James Marriot
None of us will be young again. But we should take the experience of being young as seriously as the moody teenagers in Normal People do. We were all forged in that frightening, thrilling and unrepeatable time of life.
From witty but jaded Giles Coren, 50,
We had cheeseburgers from Five Guys with the children at 5pm then shared a glass of cheap champagne in front of four mournful episodes of that show about miserable Irish kids shagging in single beds, and were asleep by nine.
A sour note from the Guardian’s Jess Crispin
The series adapted from the Sally Rooney novel is a tedious reworking of a romance plot as old as time. I’d rather read an honest bodice-ripper.
More from the rare Times puff for the BBC
BBC executives will be relieved by the drama’s popularity on iPlayer as its early ratings on traditional scheduled television have been modest. The first two episodes broadcast on BBC One on Monday last week were seen by 2.2 million and 2 million people respectively, significantly below the 3.2 million slot average for 9pm. The national broadcaster is planning to plough tens of millions of pounds into youth programming to stem the loss of millennial and Generation Z viewers.
Lord Hall of Birkenhead, the director-general, has hinted that BBC Three could be given a more visible presence on the corporation’s broadcast channels, with an announcement expected shortly. Shutting BBC Three as a broadcast channel in 2016 is widely seen to have been a mistake. Fiona Campbell, (from Belfast incidentally) the controller of BBC Three, said: “We’re delighted that Normal People has been such a success and so many people have come to iPlayer to watch it.
“From the initial read-through, the phenomenal thought and preparation the directors put into everything from the aesthetics and locations through to the costumes, we felt this piece would always be incredibly unique and it’s clear the audience thinks so too.
Mary Hannigan in the Irish Times
In the opening two episodes alone, there are bountiful reminders of how that stage of life is filled with as much pain as it is joy, both Marianne and Connell fragile and filled with self-doubt as they try to figure out who they are and how to take their next steps together. And you can’t but root for them.
Normal People is, in a word, gorgeous.


sluggerotoole--2020-05-05--John Dallat MLA RIP

John Dallat MLA RIP

The SDLP Leader , Colum Eastwood has announced the death of the East Derry MLA , John Dallat .
John Dallat lived and breathed to serve others .
“ For over 45 years he was the most loyal servant to the people of East Derry and a fierce friend to everyone in the SDLP .
I know I speak for everyone in the party when I say his good humour and wise advice will be sorely missed .
“ John entered public life at a time and in a place when it was difficult to be an SDLP representative .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ exterior , he was often hurt when the hand of friendship he extended across the sectarian divide in the late 70s and early 80s in Coleraine Council wasn ’ t always accepted .
But it never stopped him trying and only strengthened his lifelong resolve to oppose violence and its supporters .
“ As a public representative , John struck fear into the heart of anyone who dared misspend a penny of public money .
His forensic skill as a member of the Public Accounts Committee may not have won him many friends @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sector but it won him respect across political lines .
It was a respect he maintained with a fair hand as Deputy Speaker of the Assembly .
“ Even retirement couldn ’ t stop him and I ’ m glad that he came back to the SDLP Assembly team in 2017 .
We will miss his infectious laugh and his deep experience .
“ My thoughts , and the thoughts of everyone in the SDLP , are with his wife Anne , his children Helena , Ronan , Diarmuid and his eight grandchildren @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to him .
We ’ re thinking of them at this difficult time and I hope they are comforted by the knowledge that he made an immeasurable difference .
”

The SDLP Leader, Colum Eastwood has announced the death of the East Derry MLA, John Dallat.
His statement
John Dallat lived and breathed to serve others.
“For over 45 years he was the most loyal servant to the people of East Derry and a fierce friend to everyone in the SDLP. I know I speak for everyone in the party when I say his good humour and wise advice will be sorely missed.
“John entered public life at a time and in a place when it was difficult to be an SDLP representative. I know that, despite his tough exterior, he was often hurt when the hand of friendship he extended across the sectarian divide in the late 70s and early 80s in Coleraine Council wasn’t always accepted. But it never stopped him trying and only strengthened his lifelong resolve to oppose violence and its supporters.
“As a public representative, John struck fear into the heart of anyone who dared misspend a penny of public money. His forensic skill as a member of the Public Accounts Committee may not have won him many friends in the higher levels of the public sector but it won him respect across political lines. It was a respect he maintained with a fair hand as Deputy Speaker of the Assembly.
“Even retirement couldn’t stop him and I’m glad that he came back to the SDLP Assembly team in 2017. We will miss his infectious laugh and his deep experience.
“My thoughts, and the thoughts of everyone in the SDLP, are with his wife Anne, his children Helena, Ronan, Diarmuid and his eight grandchildren. John’s family meant everything to him. We’re thinking of them at this difficult time and I hope they are comforted by the knowledge that he made an immeasurable difference.”


sluggerotoole--2020-05-06--Is obesity a key factor in Covid-19 deaths?

What we know about Covid-19 increases daily .
But what we don ’ t remains largely out of sight in the submerged part of this very menacing iceberg that keeps policy-makers awake at night .
What we do know we must use wisely applying it where we can to save lives .
In January as they were getting to grips with the infection China identified many of the risk factors for poorer outcomes and these have since been confirmed in other countries .
Being older is the biggest risk followed by having heart disease , lung disease and diabetes .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ of us , for example , are getting any younger .
Statistics that identify relationships are vital , especially where this information allows us to alter something that reduces risk particularly where it could allow us to open up the economy .
We are so focused on finding magic bullets – vaccines , accurate testing and contact-tracing and effective medicines .
While all we have now is staying at home , social distancing and washing our hands raw .
Cocooning or shielding those over 70 has been proposed as a serious policy option @ @ @ @ @ @ @ weight could reduce the more serious consequences of the disease ?
A week or so back figures published by the Irish government showed that of total deaths then ( 767 ) , 86 % were in patients over the age of 70 years .
Of course governments have been keen to show that younger people also die from Covid-19 and to a degree are playing down the age link hoping everyone sticks with public health messages .
Yet if you are younger and find yourself in ICU because of Covid-19 then you are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ least one national leader found out .
Obesity is emerging as a strong link between age and chronic disease and adds further clarity to who is most at risk of ending up in ICU if they get infected .
It may also explain why people from the black communities and the socially deprived fare less well when it comes to who dies of Covid-19 .
The correlation between a higher body mass index ( BMI ) and severe symptoms is now well established .
In the UK last week two-thirds of those Covid-19 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ an Italian study showed that 99 % of Covid-19 deaths had pre-existing conditions associated with obesity : hypertension , heart disease , diabetes and cancer .
A New York study showed that after age , obesity was the second strongest predictor of a need for critical care .
Half the UK population weighs too much with a BMI greater than 25 and with one quarter having a BMI over 30 .
A BMI over 30 classifies an individual obese .
In the US over 40 % of the population is obese and it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are experiencing the largest death rates from Covid-19 infection .
Obesity first became a public health problem in the 1980s as we wallowed through our obesogenic environment designed and promoted by a less caring form of capitalism : too much poor quality food to eat and too often and not enough physical activity .
Black people are more likely to be obese and get type 2 diabetes for genetic reasons .
The less well-off are more likely to eat cheaper , poor quality foods with higher levels of simple sugars , the types @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the aisles of any supermarket .
There is now sufficient data to at least theorise that obesity may be the central reason for poorer outcomes from Covid-19 .
Obesity increases naturally as we age , black and poorer populations are more likely to be obese and obesity is the cause of metabolic syndrome a collection of hypertension , type 2 diabetes , heart disease and lung disease .
Sleep apnoea is mainly caused by obesity .
Is a key reason why this virus is so aggressive in about 10 % of those infected @ @ @ @ @ @ @ do we improve the health of the nation ?
“ A Matched Set ” by Tobyotter is licensed under CC BY

What we know about Covid-19 increases daily. But what we don’t remains largely out of sight in the submerged part of this very menacing iceberg that keeps policy-makers awake at night. What we do know we must use wisely applying it where we can to save lives. In January as they were getting to grips with the infection China identified many of the risk factors for poorer outcomes and these have since been confirmed in other countries. Being older is the biggest risk followed by having heart disease, lung disease and diabetes. These risks are mostly unalterable; none of us, for example, are getting any younger.
Statistics that identify relationships are vital, especially where this information allows us to alter something that reduces risk particularly where it could allow us to open up the economy. We are so focused on finding magic bullets – vaccines, accurate testing and contact-tracing and effective medicines. While all we have now is staying at home, social distancing and washing our hands raw. Cocooning or shielding those over 70 has been proposed as a serious policy option. Might it be that simply losing weight could reduce the more serious consequences of the disease?
A week or so back figures published by the Irish government showed that of total deaths then (767), 86% were in patients over the age of 70 years. Of course governments have been keen to show that younger people also die from Covid-19 and to a degree are playing down the age link hoping everyone sticks with public health messages. Yet if you are younger and find yourself in ICU because of Covid-19 then you are more than likely obese. As at least one national leader found out.
Obesity is emerging as a strong link between age and chronic disease and adds further clarity to who is most at risk of ending up in ICU if they get infected. It may also explain why people from the black communities and the socially deprived fare less well when it comes to who dies of Covid-19.
The correlation between a higher body mass index (BMI) and severe symptoms is now well established. In the UK last week two-thirds of those Covid-19 in ICU were overweight or obese and an Italian study showed that 99% of Covid-19 deaths had pre-existing conditions associated with obesity: hypertension, heart disease, diabetes and cancer. A New York study showed that after age, obesity was the second strongest predictor of a need for critical care.
Half the UK population weighs too much with a BMI greater than 25 and with one quarter having a BMI over 30. A BMI over 30 classifies an individual obese. In the US over 40% of the population is obese and it is the US and the UK that are experiencing the largest death rates from Covid-19 infection.
Obesity first became a public health problem in the 1980s as we wallowed through our obesogenic environment designed and promoted by a less caring form of capitalism: too much poor quality food to eat and too often and not enough physical activity. Black people are more likely to be obese and get type 2 diabetes for genetic reasons. The less well-off are more likely to eat cheaper, poor quality foods with higher levels of simple sugars, the types of highly processed foods you busy in the aisles of any supermarket.
There is now sufficient data to at least theorise that obesity may be the central reason for poorer outcomes from Covid-19. Obesity increases naturally as we age, black and poorer populations are more likely to be obese and obesity is the cause of metabolic syndrome a collection of hypertension, type 2 diabetes, heart disease and lung disease. Sleep apnoea is mainly caused by obesity. Is a key reason why this virus is so aggressive in about 10% of those infected because they are too fat?
How do we improve the health of the nation?
“A Matched Set” by Tobyotter is licensed under CC BY


sluggerotoole--2020-05-06--The problem with opening churches too early…

The Minister for Agriculture , Edwin Poots has recently called for churches across NI to reopen following a graduated easing of restrictions , citing novel methods of worship outside of the traditional mass congregation .
Surely this is a fine position to take considering around 93 % of the NI population identify as Christian ?
No , no it ’ s not .
It is exactly this siloed approach that underwrites the nature of Stormont ’ s power sharing Executive and gives out of touch ministers , like Poots , a platform to elevate issues above their appropriate pre-eminence .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ church-going as a priority to normalcy appears to be vastly devoid of the joined up ‘ collective ’ thinking that the Executive would have normal people believe .
The entire Institution is designed so that individual ministers have autonomy over their own portfolio and working together is therefore non-essential , despite recent virtue-signalling that all Stormont departments are voluntarily working towards a unity of purpose ; there is literally by design , no collective responsibility .
However , whereas there may be some close alignment for elements of the COVID-19 response to date @ @ @ @ @ @ @ artificial and unsustainable it is .
Last week , Michelle O ’ Neill credibly suggested on BBC ’ s The View that there are perhaps other areas where easing of restrictions would have enhanced impact other than permitting people to attend church this early .
It doesn ’ t take an economist to suggest that that focus should be on economic activity that allows people to safely get back to work , give them back their livelihoods and kickstart the nation ’ s recovery .
That is not to say that the easing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ occur in the future and is without benefits ( mental health , etc ) , but any sensible pundit would observe that to focus any significant Executive effort on this issue now has an opportunity cost , which may be businesses failing and job losses .
Instead , of course , we have an Agriculture Minister who I can only surmise is using his platform to advocate an issue that is wholly outside of his policy remit and can reasonably be attributed to a successful church lobby , or be a cause close @ @ @ @ @ @ @ too soon will inevitably drive associated activities like driving , refuelling , and using common areas amongst other things , which will ultimately increase the risk of virus transmission as it would almost certainly contribute to any increase of the reproductive rate of the virus above its new low of ‘ R0.7 ’ .
With a significant proportion of church goers being the most vulnerable in society , it stands to reason that to expose anyone to undue risk is something that Poots and church leaders must be accountable for in the event @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in that forum .
After reviewing Poots ’ historic and out of touch policy positions against same-sex adoption , ‘ gay blood ’ and women ’ s rights to abortion , even the least sensible among us can not in our right minds give his current proposal the rubber seal of approval .
I mean , the case might be better made if churches in general had a better track record of governance and self-policing , but lurching from one scandal to another has hardly covered them in the glory that they rather @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hand , now that ’ s a different story… Photo by Himsan is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA

The Minister for Agriculture, Edwin Poots has recently called for churches across NI to reopen following a graduated easing of restrictions, citing novel methods of worship outside of the traditional mass congregation. Surely this is a fine position to take considering around 93% of the NI population identify as Christian? No, no it’s not.
It is exactly this siloed approach that underwrites the nature of Stormont’s power sharing Executive and gives out of touch ministers, like Poots, a platform to elevate issues above their appropriate pre-eminence. On the face of it, reinstating church-going as a priority to normalcy appears to be vastly devoid of the joined up ‘collective’ thinking that the Executive would have normal people believe. The entire Institution is designed so that individual ministers have autonomy over their own portfolio and working together is therefore non-essential, despite recent virtue-signalling that all Stormont departments are voluntarily working towards a unity of purpose; there is literally by design, no collective responsibility. However, whereas there may be some close alignment for elements of the COVID-19 response to date, Poots’ proposal demonstrates just how artificial and unsustainable it is.
Last week, Michelle O’Neill credibly suggested on BBC’s The View that there are perhaps other areas where easing of restrictions would have enhanced impact other than permitting people to attend church this early. It doesn’t take an economist to suggest that that focus should be on economic activity that allows people to safely get back to work, give them back their livelihoods and kickstart the nation’s recovery. That is not to say that the easing of restrictions for worship shouldn’t occur in the future and is without benefits (mental health, etc), but any sensible pundit would observe that to focus any significant Executive effort on this issue now has an opportunity cost, which may be businesses failing and job losses. Instead, of course, we have an Agriculture Minister who I can only surmise is using his platform to advocate an issue that is wholly outside of his policy remit and can reasonably be attributed to a successful church lobby, or be a cause close to his own heart.
Opening churches too soon will inevitably drive associated activities like driving, refuelling, and using common areas amongst other things, which will ultimately increase the risk of virus transmission as it would almost certainly contribute to any increase of the reproductive rate of the virus above its new low of ‘R0.7’. With a significant proportion of church goers being the most vulnerable in society, it stands to reason that to expose anyone to undue risk is something that Poots and church leaders must be accountable for in the event that the virus begins to claim victims in that forum.
After reviewing Poots’ historic and out of touch policy positions against same-sex adoption, ‘gay blood’ and women’s rights to abortion, even the least sensible among us cannot in our right minds give his current proposal the rubber seal of approval. I mean, the case might be better made if churches in general had a better track record of governance and self-policing, but lurching from one scandal to another has hardly covered them in the glory that they rather erroneously preach. Garden centres on another hand, now that’s a different story…
Photo by Himsan is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA


sluggerotoole--2020-05-06--Singing Happy Birthday to the Experts

Singing Happy Birthday to the Experts

Of course , the Daily Telegraph ’ s front page scoop that crack epidemic modeller Neil Ferguson broke lockdown rules to visit his paramour is a dead cat story designed to deflect attention from the UK having the worst COVID19 death toll in Europe .
The Telegraph has form in trying to destroy Ferguson ’ s credibility , but that doesn ’ t mean this wasn ’ t a real front page news story , and it doesn ’ t mean that Ferguson shouldn ’ t have resigned ; in fact , it ’ s greatly to his credit that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ panoply of liberal and centrist talking heads have defended Ferguson ; from Labour politicians Diane Abbott and Professor Mary Creagh , to David Aaronovitch ( the sage of Hampstead ) , public health expert Anthony Costello , and Jolyon Maugham QC .
As far as Maugham goes , I can ’ t help feeling that an eminent silk knew that the resignation wasn ’ t about Ferguson having an affair with a married woman even while tweeting that it was .
About 10,000 people have been fined for lockdown breaches across the UK @ @ @ @ @ @ @ far better excuses than Ferguson , but there were no tweets from progressive twitterati demanding they be let off .
But for the grace of God , many of us might have gone where Ferguson has , but most of us aren ’ t instrumental in designing the country ’ s lockdown rules .
The impression one is left with is of a progressive establishment that doesn ’ t understand how toxic it is for the rule-makers to be rule breakers during a lockdown which the vast majority are obeying despite increasing financial @ @ @ @ @ @ @ progressive establishment really do believe it ’ s OK for there to be one rule for them and another for the normies .
This sort of rich liberal hypocrisy has been political dynamite for the populist Right across recent years , across countries and continents .
In any case the Ferguson story will soon be forgotten , while the government ’ s decisions of the first quarter of 2020 will remain news for years to come .
The UK is still going to have the worst death toll in Europe tomorrow , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ day after that , and the media will come back to it again and again .
Perhaps not the Daily Telegraph , which seems to be pursuing the death of many of its readers as a positive contribution to an Englishman ’ s liberty , but others will .
It is in that context that I can ’ t see the case for making Ferguson some sort of martyr for science and good public policy .
While his later modelling paved the way for a lockdown to eventually be implemented in the UK @ @ @ @ @ @ @ libertarian instincts , his earlier work was instrumental in the deadly period of confusion from 13-23 March , when the UK essentially lost the first battle of the war with COVID19 .
You will all , I ’ m sure , remember the ludicrous phase in March when we were told the way to beat coronavirus was to wash our hands while singing ‘ Happy Birthday ’ twice .
That was what the experts were advising .
The experts are why the UK locked down late , why the UK never screened incoming @ @ @ @ @ @ @ t have any plan for managing COVID19 in nursing homes until it was too late .
Experts , like the rest of us , have their blind spots , agendas and ideological obsessions .
British experts clung to models developed for pandemic flu , even as the evidence mounted that COVID19 was both more transmissible and more deadly , with significant levels of asymptomatic spread , even as doctors in Italian intensive care units screamed warnings at us via YouTube .
While progressives are keen to blame the politicians for somehow making the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ politicians would dare fly in the face of warnings expressed consistently by large majorities of the memberships of government medical advisory bodies .
Few such warnings seem to have been given .
Do people who deified the experts during the Brexit referendum campaign really think the government should have overruled them in this case because a Minister saw a retweet of a video by a doctor in Bergamo ?
Swedish experts – nice progressive experts who are constitutionally independent of even their nice progressive red-green coalition government – screwed things up even worse @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a success despite a galloping death toll that ‘ came as a surprise ’ .
The WHO blew the early phase of the pandemic by being too susceptible to political bullying by Beijing .
Experts are vital , but part of the job of politicians is to have the type of judgement that can cut through the agendas and biases that all people can be swayed by .
In the case of COVID19 in the UK , experts wedded to unhelpful preconceptions of what a pandemic would look like provided advice that was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to whom the virus was bad news ideologically .
Too few people asked enough hard questions at a sufficiently early stage .
The consequence has been tens of thousands of needless deaths .
The people who saved the UK from a far worse fate weren ’ t , in point of fact , any sort of experts or leaders , but largely the people themselves , who swung heavily behind the concept of a lockdown even as those in power dithered .
Public opinion is why a divided cabinet has maintained the lockdown @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Far from being brainwashed by screeching Fleet Street headlines , support for sacrificing freedoms temporarily to save lives has remained solid in the face of them .
Another great failing of establishment progressives in recent years has been a terror of the people , a fear that underneath it all they ’ re just desperate to become Nazis and mass murderers or perhaps just eat and drink themselves to early graves .
If you believe that politics can make the world a fairer place , then surely you must also believe in some @ @ @ @ @ @ @ flawed ?
For me , a big COVID19 lesson is to trust people a little more , and to trust politicians of all tribes a little less .
As for the experts , the next time they bash me over the head with their fancy academic titles when trying to bully me into something I don ’ t actually believe , I ’ m just going to sing Happy Birthday at them .

Of course, the Daily Telegraph’s front page scoop that crack epidemic modeller Neil Ferguson broke lockdown rules to visit his paramour is a dead cat story designed to deflect attention from the UK having the worst COVID19 death toll in Europe. The Telegraph has form in trying to destroy Ferguson’s credibility, but that doesn’t mean this wasn’t a real front page news story, and it doesn’t mean that Ferguson shouldn’t have resigned; in fact, it’s greatly to his credit that he did it quickly.
A whole panoply of liberal and centrist talking heads have defended Ferguson; from Labour politicians Diane Abbott and Professor Mary Creagh, to David Aaronovitch (the sage of Hampstead), public health expert Anthony Costello, and Jolyon Maugham QC. As far as Maugham goes, I can’t help feeling that an eminent silk knew that the resignation wasn’t about Ferguson having an affair with a married woman even while tweeting that it was. About 10,000 people have been fined for lockdown breaches across the UK so far; some will have had far better excuses than Ferguson, but there were no tweets from progressive twitterati demanding they be let off. But for the grace of God, many of us might have gone where Ferguson has, but most of us aren’t instrumental in designing the country’s lockdown rules.
The impression one is left with is of a progressive establishment that doesn’t understand how toxic it is for the rule-makers to be rule breakers during a lockdown which the vast majority are obeying despite increasing financial and emotional hardship. Many in the progressive establishment really do believe it’s OK for there to be one rule for them and another for the normies. This sort of rich liberal hypocrisy has been political dynamite for the populist Right across recent years, across countries and continents.
In any case the Ferguson story will soon be forgotten, while the government’s decisions of the first quarter of 2020 will remain news for years to come. The UK is still going to have the worst death toll in Europe tomorrow, and the day after that, and the day after that, and the media will come back to it again and again. Perhaps not the Daily Telegraph, which seems to be pursuing the death of many of its readers as a positive contribution to an Englishman’s liberty, but others will.
It is in that context that I can’t see the case for making Ferguson some sort of martyr for science and good public policy. While his later modelling paved the way for a lockdown to eventually be implemented in the UK despite the Prime Minister’s unhelpfully libertarian instincts, his earlier work was instrumental in the deadly period of confusion from 13-23 March, when the UK essentially lost the first battle of the war with COVID19.
You will all, I’m sure, remember the ludicrous phase in March when we were told the way to beat coronavirus was to wash our hands while singing ‘Happy Birthday’ twice. That was what the experts were advising. The experts are why the UK locked down late, why the UK never screened incoming flights, why the UK didn’t have any plan for managing COVID19 in nursing homes until it was too late. Experts, like the rest of us, have their blind spots, agendas and ideological obsessions. British experts clung to models developed for pandemic flu, even as the evidence mounted that COVID19 was both more transmissible and more deadly, with significant levels of asymptomatic spread, even as doctors in Italian intensive care units screamed warnings at us via YouTube.
While progressives are keen to blame the politicians for somehow making the scientists give them bad advice, few politicians would dare fly in the face of warnings expressed consistently by large majorities of the memberships of government medical advisory bodies. Few such warnings seem to have been given. Do people who deified the experts during the Brexit referendum campaign really think the government should have overruled them in this case because a Minister saw a retweet of a video by a doctor in Bergamo?
Swedish experts – nice progressive experts who are constitutionally independent of even their nice progressive red-green coalition government – screwed things up even worse, and still claim their strategies are a success despite a galloping death toll that ‘came as a surprise’. The WHO blew the early phase of the pandemic by being too susceptible to political bullying by Beijing.
Experts are vital, but part of the job of politicians is to have the type of judgement that can cut through the agendas and biases that all people can be swayed by. In the case of COVID19 in the UK, experts wedded to unhelpful preconceptions of what a pandemic would look like provided advice that was music to the ears of a government to whom the virus was bad news ideologically. Too few people asked enough hard questions at a sufficiently early stage. The consequence has been tens of thousands of needless deaths.
The people who saved the UK from a far worse fate weren’t, in point of fact, any sort of experts or leaders, but largely the people themselves, who swung heavily behind the concept of a lockdown even as those in power dithered. Public opinion is why a divided cabinet has maintained the lockdown for 44 long days so far. Far from being brainwashed by screeching Fleet Street headlines, support for sacrificing freedoms temporarily to save lives has remained solid in the face of them.
Another great failing of establishment progressives in recent years has been a terror of the people, a fear that underneath it all they’re just desperate to become Nazis and mass murderers or perhaps just eat and drink themselves to early graves. If you believe that politics can make the world a fairer place, then surely you must also believe in some level of innate human goodness, however flawed?
For me, a big COVID19 lesson is to trust people a little more, and to trust politicians of all tribes a little less. As for the experts, the next time they bash me over the head with their fancy academic titles when trying to bully me into something I don’t actually believe, I’m just going to sing Happy Birthday at them.


sluggerotoole--2020-05-06--Why Sinn Féin should retire Tiocfaidh ár lá…

This week marks the 39th anniversary of Bobby Sands death , the first and most infamous of the ten IRA men who perished in the 1981 hunger strike .
These fatal protests were a dramatic inflexion point in the Troubles with immense consequences – both accelerating the brutal violence and , through the election of Sands as a British MP , sowing the seeds for Sinn Féin ’ s successful entry into politics .
The events sharply divide opinions , now as then , but whatever your view , most people would accept that Bobby Sands was a highly influential @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Bobby Sands The late 60 ’ s were a dark time in Northern Ireland ’ s history and Sands , like thousands of people who found themselves a minority in their own community , suffered appalling sectarian abuse .
His family were forced out of their home , and he was subjected to loyalist threats that coerced him out of his job .
This “ well-spoken ” teenager gravitated towards militant republicanism and , like many other young men of that era , became both a victim and perpetrator of appalling violence .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ , which helps explain why his legacy has endured .
Professor Peter Shirlow , who grew up in a Unionist community , knew Sands personally and describes him as a charismatic and romantic character .
He had a thoughtful and poetic side and was enthusiastically involved in the revival of Irish language and culture .
His published works include “ McIlhatton ” and “ Back Home in Derry ” , which feature as tracks in Christy Moore ’ s iconic album “ Ride On ” .
But it is his autobiographical book “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has endured as his most famous work .
The Battle Cry of the Blanket Men The book , which recounts his brutal experiences in prison , ends with the Irish phrase Tiocfaidh ár lá – “ Our Day Will Come ” .
It is no surprise that idealistic self-sacrifice , an environment of visceral violence , and an anti-British cultural revival , all combined to ensure that the words of this charismatic leader have echoed down through the decades as the rallying cry of Republicanism .
The phrase has been used extensively in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Magee , whose revenge attack was directly inspired by the Hunger Strike .
It features on murals , songs , and works of literature ; has been adopted as the name of an unofficial Celtic football fanzine ; and is used by republican politicians to inspire followers .
There is no denying that Tiocfaidh ár lá has poetry .
It meets the fabled “ rule of three ” long famous in advertising slogans and adopted with enthusiasm by modern politics ; “ Yes We Can ” and “ Take Back Control ” being @ @ @ @ @ @ @ beyond a slogan and provides an artefact of organisational culture – an abstract typology that encapsulates the philosophy of the struggle in three words and reminds Republicans what they were fighting for .
As a motivational phrase it was almost religious in its intensity , promising followers a sunlit upland in an undefined future , which would make the present sacrifice all worthwhile .
But is the “ Battle cry of the Blanketmen ” still appropriate for the modern day ?
That it retains emotional and symbolic power is not in doubt – @ @ @ @ @ @ @ speech or Mary Lou , newly elected as party leader , ended her first Ard Fheis with this unscripted remark .
But both these comments , which “ hark back to a very dark time ” play to a narrow gallery of militancy .
It is no surprise their use was condemned by political leaders across the island .
A phrase so associated with the hunger strikes and violent republicanism is inevitably going to offend most people , but in particular Unionists .
Divisive language , while understandable during a time of conflict @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a movement that aims to unite “ Catholic , Protestant , and Dissenter ” .
Consider also Gerry Adams , who wrote the introduction to Sands book .
In Adam ’ s 2005 political manifesto “ The New Ireland ” he wrote that : “ A necessary element of any conflict resolution process is inclusive dialogue based on equality and respect ” and “ The New Ireland must be a shared place for all the people who live on the island ” How does Tiocfaidh ár lá – the opposite of inclusive and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ shared place – fit into this philosophy ?
Republicans could understandably point to equivalent rhetoric on the other side of the fence .
Unionists have their own examples of the “ rule of three ” , albeit the less poetical “ Never , Never , Never ” or “ Ulster Says No.
” However , the most notable phrase is the blunt loyalist staccato of “ No Surrender ” .
This shibboleth , which originated from the 1690 siege of Derry , can be used in equally divisive ways .
It is more @ @ @ @ @ @ @ focused on preserving the status quo rather than creating a new dawn .
But like the equivalent republican phrase it is deployed to maintain tribal cohesion , it features on murals and political slogans , and has embedded itself in an offensive way in football culture .
Whilst the phrase is less common amongst mainstream Unionists , at times of stress it can be utilised in political and cultural dialogue .
In an ideal world “ No Surrender ” would also disappear from our lexicon , so all sides of the political divide @ @ @ @ @ @ @ society .
But Republican use of Tiocfaidh ár lá is not a quid pro quo , or something to be negotiated away with “ nothing agreed until everything is agreed ” .
Coming back to Gerry Adams again “ activists who want the most change have to be prepared to take the greater risks ” .
If Republicans want to build a United Ireland – a New Ireland – then the greater onus is on them to adopt the inclusive language that will help build a shared society .
Tiocfaidh ár lá was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Troubles , but Republicans need to put the battle cries of war behind them .
It is a time for peace .
A time for justice .
A time for rebuilding .
Tiocfaidh ár lá is a phrase whose day has come .
“ Belfast – “ Reason for being an athiest # 6420 ” ” by Effervescing Elephant is licensed under CC BY-SA

This week marks the 39th anniversary of Bobby Sands death, the first and most infamous of the ten IRA men who perished in the 1981 hunger strike. These fatal protests were a dramatic inflexion point in the Troubles with immense consequences – both accelerating the brutal violence and, through the election of Sands as a British MP, sowing the seeds for Sinn Féin’s successful entry into politics. The events sharply divide opinions, now as then, but whatever your view, most people would accept that Bobby Sands was a highly influential figure.
The Life and Literature of Bobby Sands
The late 60’s were a dark time in Northern Ireland’s history and Sands, like thousands of people who found themselves a minority in their own community, suffered appalling sectarian abuse. His family were forced out of their home, and he was subjected to loyalist threats that coerced him out of his job. This “well-spoken” teenager gravitated towards militant republicanism and, like many other young men of that era, became both a victim and perpetrator of appalling violence.
But there was another side to Sands, which helps explain why his legacy has endured. Professor Peter Shirlow, who grew up in a Unionist community, knew Sands personally and describes him as a charismatic and romantic character. He had a thoughtful and poetic side and was enthusiastically involved in the revival of Irish language and culture. His published works include “McIlhatton” and “Back Home in Derry”, which feature as tracks in Christy Moore’s iconic album “Ride On”. But it is his autobiographical book “One Day in My Life” that has endured as his most famous work.
The Battle Cry of the Blanket Men
The book, which recounts his brutal experiences in prison, ends with the Irish phrase Tiocfaidh ár lá – “Our Day Will Come”. It is no surprise that idealistic self-sacrifice, an environment of visceral violence, and an anti-British cultural revival, all combined to ensure that the words of this charismatic leader have echoed down through the decades as the rallying cry of Republicanism.
The phrase has been used extensively in the dock, including Brighton Bomber Patrick Magee, whose revenge attack was directly inspired by the Hunger Strike. It features on murals, songs, and works of literature; has been adopted as the name of an unofficial Celtic football fanzine; and is used by republican politicians to inspire followers.
There is no denying that Tiocfaidh ár lá has poetry. It meets the fabled “rule of three” long famous in advertising slogans and adopted with enthusiasm by modern politics; “Yes We Can” and “Take Back Control” being two recent successes. But it goes beyond a slogan and provides an artefact of organisational culture – an abstract typology that encapsulates the philosophy of the struggle in three words and reminds Republicans what they were fighting for. As a motivational phrase it was almost religious in its intensity, promising followers a sunlit upland in an undefined future, which would make the present sacrifice all worthwhile.
But is the “Battle cry of the Blanketmen” still appropriate for the modern day? That it retains emotional and symbolic power is not in doubt – hence TD David Cullinane’s victory speech or Mary Lou, newly elected as party leader, ended her first Ard Fheis with this unscripted remark. But both these comments, which “hark back to a very dark time” play to a narrow gallery of militancy. It is no surprise their use was condemned by political leaders across the island.
The New Ireland
A phrase so associated with the hunger strikes and violent republicanism is inevitably going to offend most people, but in particular Unionists. Divisive language, while understandable during a time of conflict, now seems out of place for a movement that aims to unite “Catholic, Protestant, and Dissenter”.
Consider also Gerry Adams, who wrote the introduction to Sands book. In Adam’s 2005 political manifesto “The New Ireland” he wrote that:
“A necessary element of any conflict resolution process is inclusive dialogue based on equality and respect” and “The New Ireland must be a shared place for all the people who live on the island”
How does Tiocfaidh ár lá – the opposite of inclusive and respectful dialogue or the creation of a shared place – fit into this philosophy?
No Surrender
Republicans could understandably point to equivalent rhetoric on the other side of the fence. Unionists have their own examples of the “rule of three”, albeit the less poetical “Never, Never, Never” or “Ulster Says No.” However, the most notable phrase is the blunt loyalist staccato of “No Surrender”. This shibboleth, which originated from the 1690 siege of Derry, can be used in equally divisive ways. It is more defensive and backward looking than republicanism, focused on preserving the status quo rather than creating a new dawn. But like the equivalent republican phrase it is deployed to maintain tribal cohesion, it features on murals and political slogans, and has embedded itself in an offensive way in football culture. Whilst the phrase is less common amongst mainstream Unionists, at times of stress it can be utilised in political and cultural dialogue.
Building a Shared Society
In an ideal world “No Surrender” would also disappear from our lexicon, so all sides of the political divide can come together to build a shared society. But Republican use of Tiocfaidh ár lá is not a quid pro quo, or something to be negotiated away with “nothing agreed until everything is agreed”. Coming back to Gerry Adams again “activists who want the most change have to be prepared to take the greater risks”. If Republicans want to build a United Ireland – a New Ireland – then the greater onus is on them to adopt the inclusive language that will help build a shared society.
Tiocfaidh ár lá was a motivating phrase during the conflict of the Troubles, but Republicans need to put the battle cries of war behind them. It is a time for peace. A time for justice. A time for rebuilding. Tiocfaidh ár lá is a phrase whose day has come.
“Belfast – “Reason for being an athiest #6420”” by Effervescing Elephant is licensed under CC BY-SA


sluggerotoole--2020-05-07--The stand off over the Ireland/NI protocol is a model of cooperation  compared to Covid planning

A few days ago , naively perhaps , I wondered why north and south weren ’ t cooperating actively over Covid 19 , especially when a memo of understanding had been signed between the two public health authorities at the end of March .
After all ” North –South ” is one of those pillars of the GFA that are almost a religion albeit a neglected one .
Surely Covid created ideal circumstances for holding a big revival .
Across the water , one of the pieties of the devolved Union trotted out in London since the Covid crisis broke @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” This is craftily observed by Nicola Sturgeon timing her very personal press conferences just ahead of Downing St ’ s and hinting at differences which seldom actually transpire .
Stormont is the laggard , often overlooked In the daily No 10 analyses or forgotten altogether .
A terrific example of this occurred in Commons Health questions to the Matt Hancock the other day when the Alliance MP for North Down Stephen Farry asked a question of the Health Secretary for England Matt Hancock .
The exchange is worth carrying in full .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ of people cross the land border in Ireland every day and , more generally , the UK and Ireland are committed to the common travel area .
With regard to contact tracing apps , does the Secretary of State recognise the difficulties that will arise if the UK , including Northern Ireland , and Ireland use different systems , and will he undertake to work with the Irish Government to address any such operational issues ?
We have considered all the different potential apps being used by different countries around the world .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ about international travel can easily be addressed , not least by the potential of someone having two different apps on their phone if they need to travel internationally .
So here we have a UK cabinet minister , clearly not having a clue , busking an answer , classifying the common travel area as “ international travel , ” meaning if he had ever considered it , that farmers travelling from Fermanagh to Leitrim or truck drivers from Armagh to Louth would be expected to carry and pay for two mobile phones , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ installed .
Would they each pick up the other ?
I only ask .
One excuse for lack of consultation between London and Dublin might be the UK ’ s unwillingness to discuss their plans for easing lockdown in advance , whereas the Republic have announced their own graduated scheme .
The UK ’ s plans , such as they are , will finally be announced with fanfare by Boris Johnson in a TV address on Sunday .
The FT has had a look at the work in progress… The first wave of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ other measures , such as the wearing of face masks on public transport and tougher checks at borders .
A possible 14-day quarantine for all arrivals at UK borders will be extended to British citizens , although it may not be introduced immediately .
Grant Shapps , the transport secretary , has stated the government is exploring new measures for foreign arrivals .
Those arriving at UK borders may be required to follow the same guidance as those within the country , such as being asked to install a Covid-19 tracking app when @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in place for UK citizens you can expect to be in place for those arriving in the UK , ” said one official .
Are we looking at a temporary hard border in Ireland and a requirement for travellers to and from GB and Ireland to carry the British app at GB ports and airports which is not compulsory for residents ?
Or will the common travel area be exempt ?
If so , how will contact tracing work throughout Ireland and between the two islands ?
If each state isn ’ t @ @ @ @ @ @ @ can each of them trust the reliability of the other ’ s measures ?
Newton Emerson pins blame squarely on Dublin for persistent Covid north-south partitionism , but London is just as culpable for east –west blindness .
The Irish government has published its lockdown exit timetable without making any attempt to coordinate with Stormont .
As Fine Gael minister Regina Doherty told RTE this Tuesday , Dublin wanted to “ inform Irish people first ” before sharing its plans with the Northern Ireland executive .
The Republic began entering lockdown on March @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and tourist site closures , limits on indoor and outdoor events and a raft of social distancing measures .
Tourism is marketed on an all-Ireland basis , is obviously a leading health and economic concern in managing the epidemic and is a specified area of north-south cooperation under the Good Friday Agreement .
This counted for nothing .
The Irish government subsequently claimed it had offered to discuss its measures with Stormont in advance .
The ‘ offer ’ was made in a telephone call ten minutes before Varadkar ’ s statement , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , with no information on its contents .
It has become common to see claims of unionists jeopardising Irish lives through blind loyalty to Britain , despite Foster and Swann being equally clear they are prepared to diverge from Britain .
Every north-south difference in policy has been seized on as a sectarian wedge .
At its nadir a month ago , this toxic nonsense threatened to bring down devolution .
There would be even less cooperation with no northern executive or North-South Ministerial Council .
Since looking over that precipice at the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the DUP have made a renewed effort to reach agreed positions , without pretending they have no differences .
The Irish government ’ s continued , total contempt for cooperation should be the final pointer to where the real obstacle lies .
Only the most obtuse of partisans could miss it .

A few days ago, naively perhaps, I wondered why north and south weren’t cooperating actively over Covid 19, especially when a memo of understanding had been signed between the two public health authorities at the end of March . After all ” North –South” is one of those pillars of the GFA that are almost a religion albeit a neglected one. Surely Covid created ideal circumstances for holding a big revival.
Across the water, one of the pieties of the devolved Union trotted out in London since the Covid crisis broke is “ the four nations acting together.” This is craftily observed by Nicola Sturgeon timing her very personal press conferences just ahead of Downing St’s and hinting at differences which seldom actually transpire. Stormont is the laggard, often overlooked In the daily No 10 analyses or forgotten altogether.
A terrific example of this occurred in Commons Health questions to the Matt Hancock the other day when the Alliance MP for North Down Stephen Farry asked a question of the Health Secretary for England Matt Hancock. The exchange is worth carrying in full.
Stephen Farry (North Down) (Alliance)
In better times, tens of thousands of people cross the land border in Ireland every day and, more generally, the UK and Ireland are committed to the common travel area. With regard to contact tracing apps, does the Secretary of State recognise the difficulties that will arise if the UK, including Northern Ireland, and Ireland use different systems, and will he undertake to work with the Irish Government to address any such operational issues?
Matt Hancock
We have considered all the different potential apps being used by different countries around the world. I am confident that any such concerns about international travel can easily be addressed, not least by the potential of someone having two different apps on their phone if they need to travel internationally.
So here we have a UK cabinet minister, clearly not having a clue, busking an answer, classifying the common travel area as “ international travel,” meaning if he had ever considered it, that farmers travelling from Fermanagh to Leitrim or truck drivers from Armagh to Louth would be expected to carry and pay for two mobile phones, each with its separate tracing app. installed. Would they each pick up the other? I only ask.
One excuse for lack of consultation between London and Dublin might be the UK’s unwillingness to discuss their plans for easing lockdown in advance, whereas the Republic have announced their own graduated scheme. The UK’s plans, such as they are, will finally be announced with fanfare by Boris Johnson in a TV address on Sunday. The FT has had a look at the work in progress…
The first wave of tweaks will cover the toughening up of other measures, such as the wearing of face masks on public transport and tougher checks at borders. A possible 14-day quarantine for all arrivals at UK borders will be extended to British citizens, although it may not be introduced immediately. Grant Shapps, the transport secretary, has stated the government is exploring new measures for foreign arrivals. Those arriving at UK borders may be required to follow the same guidance as those within the country, such as being asked to install a Covid-19 tracking app when it becomes available. “Whatever is in place for UK citizens you can expect to be in place for those arriving in the UK,” said one official.
Are we looking at a temporary hard border in Ireland and a requirement for travellers to and from GB and Ireland to carry the British app at GB ports and airports which is not compulsory for residents? Or will the common travel area be exempt? If so, how will contact tracing work throughout Ireland and between the two islands? If each state isn’t cooperating over Covid measures already, how can each of them trust the reliability of the other’s measures? Newton Emerson pins blame squarely on Dublin for persistent Covid north-south partitionism, but London is just as culpable for east –west blindness.
The Irish government has published its lockdown exit timetable without making any attempt to coordinate with Stormont.
In fact, Stormont was actively excluded.
As Fine Gael minister Regina Doherty told RTE this Tuesday, Dublin wanted to “inform Irish people first” before sharing its plans with the Northern Ireland executive.
The Republic began entering lockdown on March 12, with school closures, museum and tourist site closures, limits on indoor and outdoor events and a raft of social distancing measures.
Tourism is marketed on an all-Ireland basis, is obviously a leading health and economic concern in managing the epidemic and is a specified area of north-south cooperation under the Good Friday Agreement. This counted for nothing.
The Irish government subsequently claimed it had offered to discuss its measures with Stormont in advance. The ‘offer’ was made in a telephone call ten minutes before Varadkar’s statement, warning Stormont there would be a statement, with no information on its contents.
It has become common to see claims of unionists jeopardising Irish lives through blind loyalty to Britain, despite Foster and Swann being equally clear they are prepared to diverge from Britain.
Every north-south difference in policy has been seized on as a sectarian wedge.
At its nadir a month ago, this toxic nonsense threatened to bring down devolution. There would be even less cooperation with no northern executive or North-South Ministerial Council.
Since looking over that precipice at the start of April, Sinn Féin and the DUP have made a renewed effort to reach agreed positions, without pretending they have no differences.
The Irish government’s continued, total contempt for cooperation should be the final pointer to where the real obstacle lies. Only the most obtuse of partisans could miss it.


sluggerotoole--2020-05-07--Would you prefer faster roads or faster broadband?

How are you getting on with the great work from home experiment ?
I have worked from home for most of my career so it is nothing new for me but I realise it will be a novelty for most of you .
Your experience will vary greatly depending on if you have young kids or not .
With our 4-year-old , I find it is next to impossible to get any work done while homeschooling and childminding .
Whatever teachers get paid they should double it and give them free hot tubs for the staff room as a bonus @ @ @ @ @ @ @ could be a new reality but at some stage in the next year or two normal life shall resume and you will all have to make your way back into your place of work .
I personally think we will end up with more flexible work patterns with a hybrid of working from the office and working from home where possible .
I can ’ t imagine there any many people reading this who miss sitting in traffic on the Westlink for 2 hours a day .
I think it is a reasonable @ @ @ @ @ @ @ back to normal life , traffic levels should fall if some people work from home for part of the week or take public transport more .
I was surprised to find that Broadband speeds are pretty decent in Northern Ireland .
From the 2019 Ofcom report : • Two hundred and thirty-two thousand homes ( 31 % ) in Northern Ireland now have access to full-fibre broadband connections ; over 160,000 more than last year .
These connections can deliver much higher download speeds , of up to 1 Gbit/s and are also @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Among the four UK nations , Northern Ireland ( 31 % ) has the highest availability of full fibre services , compared to England ( 10 % ) , Scotland ( 8 % ) and Wales ( 12 % ) .
• Superfast broadband ( at least 30 Mbit/s ) , is available to 89 % of premises in Northern Ireland , the same as last year .
• The average download speed delivered to premises in Northern Ireland is 55 Mbit/s .
This has increased from 43 Mbit/s in 2018 and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
• Average monthly broadband data use in Northern Ireland has gone up from 240 GB per connection in 2018 , to 322 GB in 2019 – the equivalent of watching up to four hours of HD video content a day .
• The deployment of wireless home broadband from BT/EE on its mobile network has further reduced the number of premises that can not get a decent broadband service .
We now estimate that as few as 20,000 homes in Northern Ireland should be unable to access a decent fixed broadband service @ @ @ @ @ @ @ coverage .
From March 2020 , those homes unable to get a decent connection will be able to request one from BT through the broadband Universal Service Obligation ( USO ) .
• Good 4G services from all four operators are available ( outdoor ) across 75 % of the Northern Ireland landmass while voice services from all four operators are available ( outdoor ) to 86 % of the Northern Ireland landmass .
• 61 % of premises and 52 % of major roads in Northern Ireland have good indoor / in-vehicle @ @ @ @ @ @ @ • Voice services ( indoor ) from all four operators are available in 80 % of premises in Northern Ireland and 72 % of major roads ( in-vehicle ) .
So hopefully most of you are getting a decent signal but as more of us video call and stream the network will need to keep improving to keep up with demand .
And what about our roads ?
Well , it is no surprise to any drivers that some of our road network is in bad shape so I suppose the answer to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in all our Infrastructure – roads , water , broadband everything really .
I can see a massive investment in Infrastructure in the South as the European Central Bank has basically authorised unlimited funds and infrastructure projects are an obvious way to kickstart the economy .
In the North , I am not sure how it will work out with the UK leaving Europe , but the UK can raise funds on the global bond should they need too .
This post is a bit rambly as I have a four-year-old distracting me @ @ @ @ @ @ @ but the point I am trying to get at is the Great Pause is an opportunity to reevaluate our priorities as a society .
It is also clear that the state is back , after decades of letting the market run wild only the power and might of state governments can get us out of this mess .
Ironically , Boris Johnson and his Conservative government will oversee the most significant state investment programme since the post-war Labour government .
“ on the road ” by Giacomo Carena is licensed under CC BY-ND

How are you getting on with the great work from home experiment? I have worked from home for most of my career so it is nothing new for me but I realise it will be a novelty for most of you.
Your experience will vary greatly depending on if you have young kids or not. With our 4-year-old, I find it is next to impossible to get any work done while homeschooling and childminding. Whatever teachers get paid they should double it and give them free hot tubs for the staff room as a bonus.
Some have a fantasy that this could be a new reality but at some stage in the next year or two normal life shall resume and you will all have to make your way back into your place of work. I personally think we will end up with more flexible work patterns with a hybrid of working from the office and working from home where possible.
I can’t imagine there any many people reading this who miss sitting in traffic on the Westlink for 2 hours a day. I think it is a reasonable assumption that even when we do go back to normal life, traffic levels should fall if some people work from home for part of the week or take public transport more.
I was surprised to find that Broadband speeds are pretty decent in Northern Ireland. From the 2019 Ofcom report:
Two hundred and thirty-two thousand homes (31%) in Northern Ireland now have access to full-fibre broadband connections; over 160,000 more than last year. These connections can deliver much higher download speeds, of up to 1 Gbit/s and are also more reliable than older, copperbased broadband. Among the four UK nations, Northern Ireland (31%) has the highest availability of full fibre services, compared to England (10%), Scotland (8%) and Wales (12%).
Superfast broadband (at least 30 Mbit/s), is available to 89% of premises in Northern Ireland, the same as last year.
The average download speed delivered to premises in Northern Ireland is 55 Mbit/s. This has increased from 43 Mbit/s in 2018 and reflects increasing availability of faster broadband services.
Average monthly broadband data use in Northern Ireland has gone up from 240 GB per connection in 2018, to 322 GB in 2019 – the equivalent of watching up to four hours of HD video content a day.
The deployment of wireless home broadband from BT/EE on its mobile network has further reduced the number of premises that cannot get a decent broadband service. We now estimate that as few as 20,000 homes in Northern Ireland should be unable to access a decent fixed broadband service, subject to confirmation of individual premises coverage. From March 2020, those homes unable to get a decent connection will be able to request one from BT through the broadband Universal Service Obligation (USO).
Good 4G services from all four operators are available (outdoor) across 75% of the Northern Ireland landmass while voice services from all four operators are available (outdoor) to 86% of the Northern Ireland landmass.
61% of premises and 52% of major roads in Northern Ireland have good indoor / in-vehicle 4G coverage from all four operators.
Voice services (indoor) from all four operators are available in 80% of premises in Northern Ireland and 72% of major roads (in-vehicle).
So hopefully most of you are getting a decent signal but as more of us video call and stream the network will need to keep improving to keep up with demand.
And what about our roads? Well, it is no surprise to any drivers that some of our road network is in bad shape so I suppose the answer to my own question is we need investment in all our Infrastructure – roads, water, broadband everything really. I can see a massive investment in Infrastructure in the South as the European Central Bank has basically authorised unlimited funds and infrastructure projects are an obvious way to kickstart the economy. In the North, I am not sure how it will work out with the UK leaving Europe, but the UK can raise funds on the global bond should they need too.
This post is a bit rambly as I have a four-year-old distracting me that makes it difficult to focus, but the point I am trying to get at is the Great Pause is an opportunity to reevaluate our priorities as a society. It is also clear that the state is back, after decades of letting the market run wild only the power and might of state governments can get us out of this mess. Ironically, Boris Johnson and his Conservative government will oversee the most significant state investment programme since the post-war Labour government.
“on the road” by Giacomo Carena is licensed under CC BY-ND


sluggerotoole--2020-05-07--University of Liverpool launching Culture Unconfined Festival, next week…

An old friend , dramaturg and convener of the first UK theatre-in-the-round festival the late Chris Johnson , once explained that when you work in any unconventional form you may be closing a door on what you know but that another one will open , if you ’ re on the lookout for it .
We ’ ve seen that with Pete O ’ Neill ’ s Imagine !
Festival most of which was ported online with almost no real notice and remains accessible on YouTube .
It was a marvellous feat pulled off with almost zero notice .
Other @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The “ Royal Albert Home ” series features ‘ as live ’ performances from classical and more contemporary artists who had been or will be scheduled to perform in London ’ s Royal Albert Hall .
All from their kitchen ’ s living rooms or garages .
All of it ad hoc , and I think probably learning from each other fast .
Next week , the Institute of Irish Studies at the University of Liverpool is putting on a modest programme of online events under the title “ Culture Unconfined ” .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ events , but not slavishly or thematically so .
Often the link is the place of birth of the artist .
At a time when it feels like we are all in a new diaspora separated from friends , families and neighbours , as our lives are contained within the same tiny envelope our ancestors moved in 100 years ago , Culture Unconfined I hope be a breakout moment to connect or reconnect .
Every day next week from Monday to Friday , I ’ ll post a short outline of that day @ @ @ @ @ @ @ available after , others not .
But for Tuesday ’ s live lunchtime talk on Sean Nos , you will need to sign up beforehand .
Same with Ryan Molloy and Martin Dyar on Thursday at the same time .
Using those international connections to scope the talent and outsized human labour of the Irish experience both at home and abroad .
The one I ’ m looking forward to most is composer Gerald Barry , although I fully expect he ’ s not going to be everyone ’ s cupan tae .
@ @ @ @ @ @

An old friend, dramaturg and convener of the first UK theatre-in-the-round festival the late Chris Johnson, once explained that when you work in any unconventional form you may be closing a door on what you know but that another one will open, if you’re on the lookout for it.
We’ve seen that with Pete O’Neill’s Imagine! Festival most of which was ported online with almost no real notice and remains accessible on YouTube. It was a marvellous feat pulled off with almost zero notice. Other event venues have since followed suit.
The “Royal Albert Home” series features ‘as live’ performances from classical and more contemporary artists who had been or will be scheduled to perform in London’s Royal Albert Hall. All from their kitchen’s living rooms or garages. All of it ad hoc, and I think probably learning from each other fast.
Next week, the Institute of Irish Studies at the University of Liverpool is putting on a modest programme of online events under the title “Culture Unconfined”. There is a diasporic theme to the events, but not slavishly or thematically so. Often the link is the place of birth of the artist.
At a time when it feels like we are all in a new diaspora separated from friends, families and neighbours, as our lives are contained within the same tiny envelope our ancestors moved in 100 years ago, Culture Unconfined I hope be a breakout moment to connect or reconnect.
Every day next week from Monday to Friday, I’ll post a short outline of that day’s events. Some will be available after, others not. But for Tuesday’s live lunchtime talk on Sean Nos, you will need to sign up beforehand. Same with Ryan Molloy and Martin Dyar on Thursday at the same time.
Using those international connections to scope the talent and outsized human labour of the Irish experience both at home and abroad. The one I’m looking forward to most is composer Gerald Barry, although I fully expect he’s not going to be everyone’s cupan tae. 😉
Get it in yer diary…


sluggerotoole--2020-05-08--Leo Varadkar’s tough line on SF’s North South hypocrisy on equality agenda…

If there is a time for humour , and this probably wasn ’ t it Taoiseach , but I do think it is long past time Sinn Féin allowed to get away with putting down its inability to get anything done in NI to the Brits and/or the Prods .
In the hyper tense post Brexit referendum age it ’ s too easy for southern voters to buy any old guff as a way of shifting the blame from internal ( ie , Strand 1 and Strand 2 relations on the island ) relations to the British .
However , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ matter to southern voters ( not to mention the pol corrs tasked with informing them properly ) .
This wasn ’ t an attack on Sinn Féin , but a series of blows on a ropey opposition : I don ’ t think many southern commentators understand what they ignore the detail of how northern democracy collapsed without a trace , but what ’ s worse is the stenographisation of party political tropes that are not reflected in the data .
Nearly five years of an FG/Labour coalition and a further four of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ led to much better outcomes than SF and the alphabet left routinely suggest .
Final word , Seamus Coffey : Photo by useche70 is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA

If there is a time for humour, and this probably wasn’t it Taoiseach, but I do think it is long past time Sinn Féin was not allowed to get away with putting down its inability to get anything done in NI to the Brits and/or the Prods.
In the hyper tense post Brexit referendum age it’s too easy for southern voters to buy any old guff as a way of shifting the blame from internal (ie, Strand 1 and Strand 2 relations on the island) relations to the British.
However, record in government in the north should matter to southern voters (not to mention the pol corrs tasked with informing them properly). This wasn’t an attack on Sinn Féin, but a series of blows on a ropey opposition:
Taoiseach @LeoVaradkar confirms the Temporary Wage Subsidy Scheme & the Pandemic Unemployment Payment of €350 per week will be extended beyond mid-June. The Taoiseach also highlights Sinn Féin's Mary Lou McDonald's two-faced & dishonest approach to #COVID19. pic.twitter.com/0xjImZdOmc — Fine Gael (@FineGael) May 7, 2020
I don’t think many southern commentators understand what they ignore the detail of how northern democracy collapsed without a trace, but what’s worse is the stenographisation of party political tropes that are not reflected in the data.
Nearly five years of an FG/Labour coalition and a further four of an FG/FF confidence and supply administration has led to much better outcomes than SF and the alphabet left routinely suggest. Final word, Seamus Coffey:
Which country did @OECD estimate saw the largest reduction in income inequality from one generation to the next? See chart of changes in inequality for generations born 1920s to 1950s to 1980s. No, not Belgium at the top; they had the highest increase. Look down the other end. pic.twitter.com/PdWFtDTXU3 — Seamus Coffey (@seamuscoffey) May 5, 2020
Photo by useche70 is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA


sluggerotoole--2020-05-08--This weekend we should also remember Russia and their role in the liberation of Europe from the Nazi

This weekend we should also remember Russia and their role in the liberation of Europe from the Nazis…

If like me you grew up watching Holywood War Movies you assume the Second World War was won by the plucky brits and their good looking yank buddies – The Russian role in the affair was conveniently airbrushed out of the story .
But looking at the stats you soon realise that Russia was the most crucial player in the fight against the Nazis .
The Red Army suffered 8,806,453 causalities in WW2 this compares to 407,300 Military deaths for the USA and 383,700 Military deaths for the UK .
In contrast , the German Army suffered 4,440,000 to 5,318,000 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ % of all German military casualties occurred on the Eastern Front .
As you can see , most of the action in WW2 was on the Eastern front with horrendous causality figures on both sides .
The average life expectancy of a German or Soviet soldier in the Battle of Stalingrad was only 24 hours .
The Russian advance was also a critical factor in the surrender of Japan , another bit of airbrushing .
Now , this is not to say that the role of the US , the UK or any @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ; they were all crucial in the defeat of the Nazis .
But when you are watching the footage of the spitfires flying past to the tune of Vera Lynne just remember the 27 million Russian military and civilians who also died due to WW2 .
Nor is this post designed to lionise the Red Army , The Russians committed horrendous war crimes in WW2 , from Wikipedia : Western estimates of the traceable number of rape victims range from two hundred thousand to two million .
Following the Winter Offensive of 1945 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in all major cities taken by the Red Army .
Women were gang raped by as many as several dozen soldiers during the liberation of Poland .
In some cases victims who did not hide in the basements all day were raped up to 15 times .
According to historian Antony Beevor , following the Red Army ’ s capture of Berlin in 1945 , Soviet troops raped German women and girls as young as eight years old .
In conclusion , let us not forget all the victors and victims of WW2 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ who died .
War , not a lot of craic all round .
“ Soviet POWs in Rovaniemi , 6th January 1940 ” by Cassowary Colorizations is licensed under CC BY

If like me you grew up watching Holywood War Movies you assume the Second World War was won by the plucky brits and their good looking yank buddies – The Russian role in the affair was conveniently airbrushed out of the story. But looking at the stats you soon realise that Russia was the most crucial player in the fight against the Nazis.
The Red Army suffered 8,806,453 causalities in WW2 this compares to 407,300 Military deaths for the USA and 383,700 Military deaths for the UK.
In contrast, the German Army suffered 4,440,000 to 5,318,000 Military deaths, and an astonishing 80% of all German military casualties occurred on the Eastern Front.
As you can see, most of the action in WW2 was on the Eastern front with horrendous causality figures on both sides. The average life expectancy of a German or Soviet soldier in the Battle of Stalingrad was only 24 hours.
The Russian advance was also a critical factor in the surrender of Japan, another bit of airbrushing.
Now, this is not to say that the role of the US, the UK or any of the allied countries was not significant; they were all crucial in the defeat of the Nazis. But when you are watching the footage of the spitfires flying past to the tune of Vera Lynne just remember the 27 million Russian military and civilians who also died due to WW2.
Nor is this post designed to lionise the Red Army, The Russians committed horrendous war crimes in WW2, from Wikipedia:
Western estimates of the traceable number of rape victims range from two hundred thousand to two million. Following the Winter Offensive of 1945, mass rape by Soviet males occurred in all major cities taken by the Red Army. Women were gang raped by as many as several dozen soldiers during the liberation of Poland. In some cases victims who did not hide in the basements all day were raped up to 15 times. According to historian Antony Beevor, following the Red Army’s capture of Berlin in 1945, Soviet troops raped German women and girls as young as eight years old.
In conclusion, let us not forget all the victors and victims of WW2 including the 1,500,000 to 3,000,000 German Civilians who died.
War, not a lot of craic all round.
“Soviet POWs in Rovaniemi, 6th January 1940” by Cassowary Colorizations is licensed under CC BY