sluggerotoole--2020-06-20--Irish nationalism needs to review its United Ireland strategy after a mere 2% increase since 2003…

The latest life and times survey is out .
And so is the perennial argument about the difference between polls and surveys .
The key usefulness about this survey is the huge ancillary detail it comes with it… So in this post , I ’ m just going to pick out a range of data leading up to that most contentious one about whether we are ready to change the constitutional status of Northern Ireland ( spoiler alert : survey says , no ) .
First , how British or Irish do we feel… What ’ s fascinating is that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ who say they feel both , they are the largest group in the survey at 36 % .
Next come those who only feel British and not Irish 33 % , and Irish not British 21 % .
Purism is still the most dominant group , with folks feeling exclusively one thing or the other only , but they only make up 54 % of the whole community .
The rest either feel a mix of the two or some other combo .
Just 1 % didn ’ t know .
This may @ @ @ @ @ @ @ dominant question in Northern Irish politics , but it also suggests it is not as pervasive a preoccupation as many in that narrow majority have persuaded themselves it is .
Now , what shape is the poor old Belfast Agreement in… In 2003 , some 25 % of the population wanted to bin or re-negotiate the Belfast Agreement .
Over the 17 years since that ’ s now down to 10 % ( 25 % don ’ t know ) .
Despite its multiple breaches ( most recently in its three-year boycott of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ popular agreement , Sinn Féin went to such pains to say it supported it ( even when it was breaking it ) .
Reassurances over the continuance of Stormont , or unionist representation in the Irish parliament seems to make no difference to people ’ s attitudes to the prospect of a UI .
Scottish independence makes hardly any difference either .
Healthcare has a real effect .
45 % of Catholics would be discouraged from voting for United Ireland .
In contrast , just 9 % of folks surveyed say health would @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the recent tumult , the endless chatter in Britain amongst otherwise very serious commentators , and the slickly marketed lobbying in favour of a united Ireland that ’ s a 2 % rise from 2003 ( and back to the 1998 level ) .
I don ’ t interpret this as saying that unification will never happen .
But it is clear that Sinn Féin as the lead advocates of a policy that appeals primarily to those already committed to the idea has failed to move the needle .
If anything , SF @ @ @ @ @ @ @ RHI ( which almost meant it caught the DUP in the 2017 Assembly elections ) has merely revived pro-union sentiment in a population that was losing interest : Any policy which relies almost entirely on counting Catholics and adding some liberals in the mix can ’ t work because it doesn ’ t take account of the huge power of inertia holding back the sort of radical change they advocate .
As with Scottish independence ( which did make huge progress against similar survey figures over there ) , the only path to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ beyond the home ground and work hard on the structural issues holding it back .
Ironically , the only way to work on those structural issues is to energetically engage with the powersharing structures in partnership with unionism for the betterment of life for the whole community of Northern Ireland .
Then maybe it would be possible to get to base one with fellow citizens and make a material case for the whole .

The latest life and times survey is out. And so is the perennial argument about the difference between polls and surveys. The key usefulness about this survey is the huge ancillary detail it comes with it…
So in this post, I’m just going to pick out a range of data leading up to that most contentious one about whether we are ready to change the constitutional status of Northern Ireland (spoiler alert: survey says, no).
First, how British or Irish do we feel…
What’s fascinating is that if you pull together all the folks who say they feel both, they are the largest group in the survey at 36%. Next come those who only feel British and not Irish 33%, and Irish not British 21%.
Purism is still the most dominant group, with folks feeling exclusively one thing or the other only, but they only make up 54% of the whole community. The rest either feel a mix of the two or some other combo. Just 1% didn’t know.
This may explain why the border is still a dominant question in Northern Irish politics, but it also suggests it is not as pervasive a preoccupation as many in that narrow majority have persuaded themselves it is.
Now, what shape is the poor old Belfast Agreement in…
In 2003, some 25% of the population wanted to bin or re-negotiate the Belfast Agreement. Over the 17 years since that’s now down to 10% (25% don’t know).
Despite its multiple breaches (most recently in its three-year boycott of the Stormont institutions) of that historically popular agreement, Sinn Féin went to such pains to say it supported it (even when it was breaking it).
Reassurances over the continuance of Stormont, or unionist representation in the Irish parliament seems to make no difference to people’s attitudes to the prospect of a UI. Scottish independence makes hardly any difference either.
Healthcare has a real effect. 45% of Catholics would be discouraged from voting for United Ireland. In contrast, just 9% of folks surveyed say health would encourage them to look south.
And finally…..
Despite the recent tumult, the endless chatter in Britain amongst otherwise very serious commentators, and the slickly marketed lobbying in favour of a united Ireland that’s a 2% rise from 2003 (and back to the 1998 level).
I don’t interpret this as saying that unification will never happen. But it is clear that Sinn Féin as the lead advocates of a policy that appeals primarily to those already committed to the idea has failed to move the needle.
If anything, SF’s attempted radicalisation of nationalism over RHI (which almost meant it caught the DUP in the 2017 Assembly elections) has merely revived pro-union sentiment in a population that was losing interest:
Any policy which relies almost entirely on counting Catholics and adding some liberals in the mix can’t work because it doesn’t take account of the huge power of inertia holding back the sort of radical change they advocate.
As with Scottish independence (which did make huge progress against similar survey figures over there), the only path to unity is to broaden the appeal far beyond the home ground and work hard on the structural issues holding it back.
Ironically, the only way to work on those structural issues is to energetically engage with the powersharing structures in partnership with unionism for the betterment of life for the whole community of Northern Ireland.
Then maybe it would be possible to get to base one with fellow citizens and make a material case for the whole.


sluggerotoole--2020-06-20--“Perhaps one can live while the other survives:” Thoughts on the NI Economy…

There is an old economic doctrine which at the beginning of the enlightenment was incredibly popular in European ancien régimes .
It was known as “ Mercantilism ” , in short it was a form of protectionism which favoured maximum export surpluses and minimising imports through subsidy ( added with excessive regulation ) all in the hope of accumulating gold bullion in the national coffers .
The movement isn ’ t pure ‘ protectionism ’ as it still adheres to the idea of international trade being a positive thing , therefore Donald Trump would be within the Mercantilist doctrine and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ American continent .
The movement came , not surprisingly , from an understanding of economics which studied agriculture with great intensity .
Agriculture , or more simply the production of food , is considered by the “ physiocrats ” to be the total sum of value in the economy .
Their argument stemmed from the fact that food as a primary mode of production in the supply chain provided value because of the inescapable need of humans to have it over other ‘ sterile ’ products .
Food production is driven by using @ @ @ @ @ @ @ livestock on equally finite patches of land .
The zero-sum attitude of this style of economics is explained in their attitude to trade deficits and accumulation of bullion .
They believed that for countries to get richer , other countries had to get poorer .
However , such arguments were chucked into the dustbin of history when during the Scottish enlightenment , David Hume rightly pointed to how the accumulation of bullion led to inflation and combined with subsidised domestic industries made a nation ’ s exports less competitive .
Adam Smith built @ @ @ @ @ @ @ which firmly challenged the Mercantilist and Physiocrat doctrines .
Value is not derived solely from agriculture , or Labour ( as held by Marx ) but by a combination of supply and demand , cost and profit , and competitiveness .
As technology progressed the importance of agriculture decreased , it has become more and more productive in real terms pushing prices into quite low levels .
The ‘ scarcity mindset ’ of early classical economics still strongly prevails in modern society .
Indeed , in the Northern Ireland context it is the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ our economic policy .
An obsession with a declining manufacturing sector increasing its exports through subsidy and with accumulating as much FDI as possible so that our workers may export their services into lucrative markets .
Such polices are good in principle , but without an equally robust domestic productivity strategy they are doomed to the same fate of the Mercantilists of old .
In France the policies become so strict that it impoverished the nation , leading to the removal of the king ’ s head and the emergence of Napoleon Bonaparte @ @ @ @ @ @ @ befall our politicians , but the envious look at the Republic of Ireland is akin to France ’ s envy as England grew richer or more competitive by pursuing non-mercantilist policies ( including trade deficits up until the 19th century ) .
I often challenge the entrenched professions here , as they are the most modern example of mercantilism .
It is obvious to any observer that unchartered industries , such as computer programming , have no formal requirements for entry .
Imagine how sluggish this industry would be if ( like with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to license themselves with the Royal Society of Engineers ?
Some do this optionally but thank goodness that to date no statute obliges them to .
“ Erleuchtung / Enlightenment ” by photoheuristic.info is licensed under CC BY

There is an old economic doctrine which at the beginning of the enlightenment was incredibly popular in European ancien régimes. It was known as “Mercantilism”, in short it was a form of protectionism which favoured maximum export surpluses and minimising imports through subsidy (added with excessive regulation) all in the hope of accumulating gold bullion in the national coffers.
The movement isn’t pure ‘protectionism’ as it still adheres to the idea of international trade being a positive thing, therefore Donald Trump would be within the Mercantilist doctrine and not a protectionism seeking autarky for the American continent. The movement came, not surprisingly, from an understanding of economics which studied agriculture with great intensity.
Agriculture, or more simply the production of food, is considered by the “physiocrats” to be the total sum of value in the economy. Their argument stemmed from the fact that food as a primary mode of production in the supply chain provided value because of the inescapable need of humans to have it over other ‘sterile’ products. Food production is driven by using finite land to photosynthesis plants or rear livestock on equally finite patches of land.
The zero-sum attitude of this style of economics is explained in their attitude to trade deficits and accumulation of bullion. They believed that for countries to get richer, other countries had to get poorer. However, such arguments were chucked into the dustbin of history when during the Scottish enlightenment, David Hume rightly pointed to how the accumulation of bullion led to inflation and combined with subsidised domestic industries made a nation’s exports less competitive.
Adam Smith built on this in his Wealth of Nations which firmly challenged the Mercantilist and Physiocrat doctrines. Value is not derived solely from agriculture, or Labour (as held by Marx) but by a combination of supply and demand, cost and profit, and competitiveness. As technology progressed the importance of agriculture decreased, it has become more and more productive in real terms pushing prices into quite low levels.
The ‘scarcity mindset’ of early classical economics still strongly prevails in modern society. Indeed, in the Northern Ireland context it is the raison d’être of much of our economic policy. An obsession with a declining manufacturing sector increasing its exports through subsidy and with accumulating as much FDI as possible so that our workers may export their services into lucrative markets.
Such polices are good in principle, but without an equally robust domestic productivity strategy they are doomed to the same fate of the Mercantilists of old. In France the policies become so strict that it impoverished the nation, leading to the removal of the king’s head and the emergence of Napoleon Bonaparte. Such a fate is unlikely to befall our politicians, but the envious look at the Republic of Ireland is akin to France’s envy as England grew richer or more competitive by pursuing non-mercantilist policies (including trade deficits up until the 19th century).
I often challenge the entrenched professions here, as they are the most modern example of mercantilism. It is obvious to any observer that unchartered industries, such as computer programming, have no formal requirements for entry. Imagine how sluggish this industry would be if (like with say the law society) they had to license themselves with the Royal Society of Engineers? Some do this optionally but thank goodness that to date no statute obliges them to.
“Erleuchtung / Enlightenment” by photoheuristic.info is licensed under CC BY


sluggerotoole--2020-06-20--Northern Ireland records its first day with zero new COVID-19 cases since the beginning of the outbr

Northern Ireland records its first day with zero new COVID-19 cases since the beginning of the outbreak

The Department of Health COVID-19 dashboard has reported that today , the 20th of June , is the first day since the 10th of March with zero new COVID-19 cases .
Over the last 7 days , 25 individuals tested positive out of the 5,964 that were tested , giving a positive test rate of 0.42 % .
This is low in an international context .
For comparison , the chart below shows Northern Ireland ’ s positive test rate compared with the most recent data available for a range of countries .
By comparison , the positive test rate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ % , 2.02 % in the United Kingdom overall , 11.3 % in Sweden , 22.5 % in Argentina and over 50 % in Bolivia .
For the month of June to date , there have been 126 new cases in Northern Ireland .
Ards and North Down is by far the council area with the most cases ( 45 , or 36 % ) .
As of today , it has been 29 days since the last reported case in the Derry City and Strabane council area , and 17 days since @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Omagh area .
With a low volume of cases and a low positive testing rate , Northern Ireland can genuinely claim to be the envy of much of the rest of the world with regards to the COVID-19 pandemic .
However , all the progress made so far could be reversed very rapidly .
It is vital now that the Northern Ireland Executive shows the political will to take the decisions to ensure that the number of cases stays low .
There is now a mounting body of evidence that masks work at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ YouGov data suggests that around 20 % of the population wear masks locally , and we should be aiming for this to be much higher .
Also , a major risk now is that Northern Ireland could import new cases of the virus .
New Zealand has shown that travel restrictions work ( and the consequences when the restrictions are ignored ) .
Serious consideration should be given to introducing a requirement that all travellers to Northern Ireland from outside the island of Ireland self-isolate for a period .
There is a momentous @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Ireland for good .
It must not be squandered .

The Department of Health COVID-19 dashboard has reported that today, the 20th of June, is the first day since the 10th of March with zero new COVID-19 cases.
Over the last 7 days, 25 individuals tested positive out of the 5,964 that were tested, giving a positive test rate of 0.42%. This is low in an international context. For comparison, the chart below shows Northern Ireland’s positive test rate compared with the most recent data available for a range of countries.
By comparison, the positive test rate in the Republic of Ireland was 0.63%, 2.02% in the United Kingdom overall, 11.3% in Sweden, 22.5% in Argentina and over 50% in Bolivia.
For the month of June to date, there have been 126 new cases in Northern Ireland. Ards and North Down is by far the council area with the most cases (45, or 36%). As of today, it has been 29 days since the last reported case in the Derry City and Strabane council area, and 17 days since the last case in the Fermanagh and Omagh area.
With a low volume of cases and a low positive testing rate, Northern Ireland can genuinely claim to be the envy of much of the rest of the world with regards to the COVID-19 pandemic.
However, all the progress made so far could be reversed very rapidly. It is vital now that the Northern Ireland Executive shows the political will to take the decisions to ensure that the number of cases stays low.
There is now a mounting body of evidence that masks work at preventing the spread of the virus. YouGov data suggests that around 20% of the population wear masks locally, and we should be aiming for this to be much higher.
Also, a major risk now is that Northern Ireland could import new cases of the virus. New Zealand has shown that travel restrictions work (and the consequences when the restrictions are ignored). Serious consideration should be given to introducing a requirement that all travellers to Northern Ireland from outside the island of Ireland self-isolate for a period.
There is a momentous opportunity to crush the curve in Northern Ireland for good. It must not be squandered.


Anyone for carbonara?

I was never very good in the kitchen .
Despite my own mother ’ s ability to magic the most wonderful culinary inventions out of a simple pressure cooker , her skills were sadly to remain in the annals of our family history , for they never arrived with me .
These gastronomic inadequacies are never more apparent than when my now grown-up children return to the nest hoping for a bit of cosseting but never ( ever ) assuming it will be of the foodie variety .
They have learned , you see , from experience .
It began @ @ @ @ @ @ @ A new house .
The promise of a spanking new kitchen where I could finally display the cooking flair I knew was only waiting to be unleashed .
Well , I got the new kitchen but in the intervening years I can only say that things have gone from bad to worse .
After some thought , I ’ ve come to realise where the problem lies .
I ’ m just not interested in food – in the slightest .
It was probably something my domestic science teacher at Portadown College spotted @ @ @ @ @ @ @ O level practical , my shah biscuits were a smidgen on the large size i.e .
six times the norm and spilling out over the edges of the baking tray .
The resulting Grade 9 was not entirely unexpected ( that ’ s a dismal failure for all you young folk ) and needless to say the subject wasn ’ t on my agenda of A level options .
Nigella Lawson I was not .
But cooking , I have come to realise , is not only about personal enthusiasm or passion .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Some time ago my daughter had invited a girlfriend over for a cookie-baking session .
I left them to it until I was called to locate the kitchen scales which had bafflingly been overlooked in a cupboard .
It turns out that they actually don ’ t look much like kitchen scales at all and it had to be explained that I had received them as an engagement present ( before a subsequent disengagement ) forty-five years ago but had kept them ever since .
They may not have resembled normal modern @ @ @ @ @ @ @ me even though converting from pounds and ounces to kilos , could sometimes prove tricky ( maths was never my best subject either ) .
Knives .
It seems that these are important as well and they need to be of a particular weight and sharpness in order to do the job .
My son pointed this out to me after he had made a number of cutting attempts with my ‘ world ’ s sharpest knife ’ which I had bought in good faith some years ago from a store demonstrator in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the time , the chap had used the knife to deftly slice a tomato into twenty unbelievably skinny slices , but it has never lived up to its dazzling performance since .
To save further embarrassment to my offspring I went out and purchased a brand new Sabatier knife that waits expectantly for my son ’ s next visit .
Something that never changed in the kitchen of my childhood was the chopping board – singular .
I can only ever remember there being one which was used relentlessly for any item of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ none of the family died of food poisoning .
So when a friend generously bought me a set of coloured boards from M and S I used my own logic for their use without realising that there is actually a proper coding system going on there .
Consequently , I have been chopping the veg on the meat board , meat on the fish board and fish on the fruit board .
Still keeping up ?
Once , my daughter brought a boyfriend home for a visit .
He just happened to be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ days we had gourmet type food appearing as if by magic from the innards of my kitchen cupboards .
Dear love him , he never uttered a single word of complaint about anything , including the magi mix that had to be resuscitated after years of hiding at the back of a closet .
The same empathy can not be accorded to my son who turned his nose up at my shop-bought carbonara and insisted on spending a fortune on the ingredients for the fresh variety .
However , I had to eventually @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a go at it myself the next time I cook en masse .
Which brings me to my final admission .
Entertaining .
I can whole-heartedly say that I ’ m fairly safe when we invite friends over for dinner , for on those occasions I make Persian food .
Or rather my version of Persian food .
Some confident bluffing has taken me through many a meal , for who ’ s to know , if they ’ ve never been to Iran , what Gormeh Sabzi is or how basmati rice @ @ @ @ @ @ @ That is unless our guests are themselves Persian , whereupon I ’ m really snookered .
Photo by RitaE is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA

I was never very good in the kitchen. Despite my own mother’s ability to magic the most wonderful culinary inventions out of a simple pressure cooker, her skills were sadly to remain in the annals of our family history, for they never arrived with me. These gastronomic inadequacies are never more apparent than when my now grown-up children return to the nest hoping for a bit of cosseting but never (ever) assuming it will be of the foodie variety. They have learned, you see, from experience.
It began with good intentions twenty-five years ago. A new house. The promise of a spanking new kitchen where I could finally display the cooking flair I knew was only waiting to be unleashed. Well, I got the new kitchen but in the intervening years I can only say that things have gone from bad to worse. After some thought, I’ve come to realise where the problem lies. I’m just not interested in food – in the slightest.
It was probably something my domestic science teacher at Portadown College spotted pretty early on when, for the O level practical, my shah biscuits were a smidgen on the large size i.e. six times the norm and spilling out over the edges of the baking tray. The resulting Grade 9 was not entirely unexpected (that’s a dismal failure for all you young folk) and needless to say the subject wasn’t on my agenda of A level options. Nigella Lawson I was not.
But cooking, I have come to realise, is not only about personal enthusiasm or passion. It is apparently about your utensils too. Some time ago my daughter had invited a girlfriend over for a cookie-baking session. I left them to it until I was called to locate the kitchen scales which had bafflingly been overlooked in a cupboard. It turns out that they actually don’t look much like kitchen scales at all and it had to be explained that I had received them as an engagement present (before a subsequent disengagement) forty-five years ago but had kept them ever since. They may not have resembled normal modern scales but they were perfectly adequate for me even though converting from pounds and ounces to kilos, could sometimes prove tricky (maths was never my best subject either).
Knives. It seems that these are important as well and they need to be of a particular weight and sharpness in order to do the job. My son pointed this out to me after he had made a number of cutting attempts with my ‘world’s sharpest knife’ which I had bought in good faith some years ago from a store demonstrator in Cardiff. I remember how, at the time, the chap had used the knife to deftly slice a tomato into twenty unbelievably skinny slices, but it has never lived up to its dazzling performance since. To save further embarrassment to my offspring I went out and purchased a brand new Sabatier knife that waits expectantly for my son’s next visit.
Something that never changed in the kitchen of my childhood was the chopping board – singular. I can only ever remember there being one which was used relentlessly for any item of food that needed cutting up and strangely none of the family died of food poisoning. So when a friend generously bought me a set of coloured boards from M and S I used my own logic for their use without realising that there is actually a proper coding system going on there. Consequently, I have been chopping the veg on the meat board, meat on the fish board and fish on the fruit board. Still keeping up?
Once, my daughter brought a boyfriend home for a visit. He just happened to be a chef, so for four glorious days we had gourmet type food appearing as if by magic from the innards of my kitchen cupboards. Dear love him, he never uttered a single word of complaint about anything, including the magi mix that had to be resuscitated after years of hiding at the back of a closet. The same empathy cannot be accorded to my son who turned his nose up at my shop-bought carbonara and insisted on spending a fortune on the ingredients for the fresh variety. However, I had to eventually concede its superiority and may actually have a go at it myself the next time I cook en masse.
Which brings me to my final admission. Entertaining. I can whole-heartedly say that I’m fairly safe when we invite friends over for dinner, for on those occasions I make Persian food. Or rather my version of Persian food. Some confident bluffing has taken me through many a meal, for who’s to know, if they’ve never been to Iran, what Gormeh Sabzi is or how basmati rice is supposed to be authentically cooked? That is unless our guests are themselves Persian, whereupon I’m really snookered.
Anyone for carbonara?
Photo by RitaE is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA


sluggerotoole--2020-06-21--How does our press emerge from lockdown? Part Four: Has the paywall dice got any spots?

I hadn ’ t planned even to write the third installment of this series but now , here is the fourth !
Events of the past few weeks have been playing on my mind and I think it ’ s worth sharing .
Recently , those of us who follow the Belfast Telegraph on social media will have noticed that it was actively promoting the fact that its “ premium articles ” would soon only be available to paying subscribers .
Hugo wrote an article in anticipation of it happening a couple of weeks ago that was implemented .
There @ @ @ @ @ @ @ charge from the Tele .
Then this weekend JPI Media , owners of the News Letter , announced that paper is also about to go behind a paywall , along with the continuation of a compulsory 10 % paycut for all employees earning between £22,500 and £40,000 pa.
I ’ ll acknowledge a personal interest .
I spent the first twelve years of my career with the Belfast Telegraph and five later years with the previous owner of the News Letter .
I also spent many years in the major regional dailies in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it ’ s a media sector that means a lot to me and one that I want to survive and thrive .
But it ’ s the sector for which I have the greatest concern .
I fear it is being squeezed to the benefit of national morning and local weekly titles , where circulation has not fallen as dramatically .
The current independently audited and published average daily sale of the Belfast Telegraph is 31,340 ( including 7,144 copies distributed free to hotels , hospitals , etc ) .
That ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The News Letter sells 11,076 , a figure boosted by Farming Life each Saturday .
A couple of decades ago ( in another world completely ) the Telegraph sold over 125,000 , so that ’ s a decline of approximately three quarters and there ’ s no evidence that it has bottomed out .
The News Letter has declined by a similar percentage while the Irish News has dropped by just a quarter .
I partly attribute the better performance of the Irish News to early timing in going behind a paywall when @ @ @ @ @ @ @ product on offer .
I ’ m primarily citing the Telegraph here because as a brand we can all relate to how dominant it used to be on counters , street corners , newsagent frontage , etc .
Prior to the National Lottery , the Belfast Telegraph was the premium product all small shops wanted to stock .
In the days of the local newsagent , it was the product that brought people in for the daily visits that led to more profitable purchases .
That was the case in cities and towns @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Evening Herald in Dublin .
But they were evening papers .
The only news brand available in the afternoon , offering an up to date news service unavailable anywhere else .
They weren ’ t “ papers of record ” and generally they weren ’ t intended to be intellectually improving .
But no other news brands gave communities such a thorough mix of local news and sport every afternoon .
They had brand loyalty like no other .
And they were very , very profitable .
The question mark over this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ too much brand loyalty from readers .
I fear it does .
I was always led to believe that loyalty to a daily newspaper was based on habit .
That why the home delivery network was so important .
I worked on a newspaper in Wolverhampton that sold just short of 200,000 copies .
75 % of those were home delivered .
That was 150,000 guaranteed sales 52 weeks a year !
The owners spent a fortune every year to maintain that until migration online of the highest yielding ad revenues from Jobs @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Telegraph had around 60 % which also demonstrated an incredibly high level of reader satisfaction .
The determination not to break the habit led us to come into frequent conflict with newsagents over the publisher ’ s insistence that they still opened and home-delivered on the likes of Boxing Day , Easter Monday and the Twelfth .
The fear was that if they couldn ’ t get our paper one day they might try another , and like it more .
Even worse they might just not miss their paper and so cancel @ @ @ @ @ @ @ but the strong ones also had the muscle to do something about it .
The reality is that the habit began to break more than a decade ago and the gap between papers and their traditional readers has been continually widening ever since .
COVID-19 has put overwhelming pressure on the remaining loyal readers .
They are predominantly older and the very people who won ’ t have been able to get to their local shop each day in the absence of what ’ s left of the home delivery network .
Age @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have access to online news sources .
They ’ ve been forced to use them in recent months .
So , by necessity , they ’ ve become more switched on to how to access news quickly , from wider sources and for free .
For its “ premium ” content the Belfast Telegraph is charging £7.99 per month for the basic online package .
By any terms , that ’ s a very reasonable price , and it ’ s less than the Irish News ( £15 per month ) .
But @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that it ’ s in the same ballpark as Spotify and Apple News , Netflix and Amazon Prime .
I couldn ’ t get through a day without Spotify and my life would be diminished without the two streaming services .
They ’ ve stopped being luxuries for most people and are now necessities .
Just like newspapers used to be .
So , if you ’ re already paying maybe £140 per month for your media ( including Sky ) will you pay more for online newspaper content ?
For brands that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ traction ?
In my case , there are three columnists in the Telegraph whose work I really like – Eilis O ’ Hanlon , Malachi O ’ Doherty and Suzanne Breen .
As a Glentoran supporter , I like to know what various media are saying about the Irish League .
But that ’ s were it stops .
The News Letter actually punches above its weight on local sport , considering it lost a very strong Sports Editor and a very good football writer in previous redundancy programmes .
Newspapers stopped “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fifteen years ago or more , as the internet rendered it impossible to “ hold ” a story of any significance until publishing time .
I ’ m not looking for a job , a car , or a new house so its advertising isn ’ t going to attract me .
The best possible time to introduce paywalls was fifteen or so years ago was the time .
When people still felt they needed their regional daily newspaper .
That ’ s when the Irish News did it with the success that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
This is a measure that may generate ( or maybe simply replace ) revenue in the short term , but also has the negative effect of alienating the current high number of waverers and driving them into the hands of other information providers .
I sympathise with the editors , journalists , and sales staff in the regions .
For a couple of generations now they have been isolated in a world-changing at an unmanageable pace .
Rather than have the breathing space to build brands thoughtfully and strategically , constantly firefighting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ obsolete business model , they have belatedly plupmed for paywalls which , for many , be a final throw of the dice .
I fear this particular dice has no spots !
Are regional dailies like the Telegraph , News Letter and Irish News saveable in the medium or even long term ?
We have an opportunity to see for ourselves both north and south of the border through the recent purchase of Independent News & Media ( INM ) by the Belgian media company Mediahuis .
This is a relatively new company @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will be interesting to see where the priorities of Mediahuis lie .
In the Republic INM accounts for more than 50 % of the daily newspaper market and more than 65 % of the Sunday market .
In Northern Ireland , based on an estimate from the TGI Report in 2018 , INM papers account for around 17 % of the daily and between 34-40 % of the Sunday market ( this is readership rather than sales as sales figures are not universally available in any generally accepted format ) .
So did @ @ @ @ @ @ @ titles , or did they primarily want the national stable they bought in the Republic ( where they also took control of nine weekly newspapers , some of them very strong brands in very strong markets ) ?
Consider that the entire INM group sold in 2019 for £125.2m , compared to the £300m INM paid for the Belfast Telegraph & Sunday Life alone in March 2000 .
It gives an indication of the magnitude of the task facing Mediahuis .
Where will the Telegraph fit into their list of early priorities and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ brand ?
What may be a positive for the Telegraph is that this is a new business , unburdened by either the moribund thinking or the “ manage decline ” mentality that has hung over UK and Irish publishers for a decade and more , with reduced paginations and weak content without considering their online offerings .
So , at least , there is no legacy of business failure in Mediahuis .
They will however need to decide if their priority is to save and grow print , or to reposition the brands @ @ @ @ @ @ @ than a few repurposed print stories .
Belfast Live has a relatively young , progressive editorial team with an eye for the quirky , the different , and the interesting .
They turn stories around quickly .
With no legacy to protect and if handled right it may well outlast its print sister the Daily Mirror .
It may be easier for Mediahuis to focus on using some of their younger , more talented managers and writers with their strong market knowledge to develop new brands of this nature ( Joe.ie is another @ @ @ @ @ @ @ market to over time make its effective decisions on older brands like the Telegraph .
The readerships are rapidly ageing and not being topped up .
It may well be that progressive publishers decide to let that take its course and attract a younger online audience through the new brands .
Someone someday soon will crack the challenge of monetising these brands .
Why shouldn ’ t that be Mediahuis ?

I hadn’t planned even to write the third installment of this series but now, here is the fourth! Events of the past few weeks have been playing on my mind and I think it’s worth sharing.
Recently, those of us who follow the Belfast Telegraph on social media will have noticed that it was actively promoting the fact that its “premium articles” would soon only be available to paying subscribers. Hugo wrote an article in anticipation of it happening a couple of weeks ago that was implemented. There is now much less available free of charge from the Tele.
Then this weekend JPI Media, owners of the News Letter, announced that paper is also about to go behind a paywall, along with the continuation of a compulsory 10% paycut for all employees earning between £22,500 and £40,000 pa.
I’ll acknowledge a personal interest. I spent the first twelve years of my career with the Belfast Telegraph and five later years with the previous owner of the News Letter. I also spent many years in the major regional dailies in other major UK regions.
So, it’s a media sector that means a lot to me and one that I want to survive and thrive. But it’s the sector for which I have the greatest concern. I fear it is being squeezed to the benefit of national morning and local weekly titles, where circulation has not fallen as dramatically.
The current independently audited and published average daily sale of the Belfast Telegraph is 31,340 (including 7,144 copies distributed free to hotels, hospitals, etc). That’s 355 more than the Irish News. The News Letter sells 11,076, a figure boosted by Farming Life each Saturday.
A couple of decades ago (in another world completely) the Telegraph sold over 125,000, so that’s a decline of approximately three quarters and there’s no evidence that it has bottomed out. The News Letter has declined by a similar percentage while the Irish News has dropped by just a quarter.
I partly attribute the better performance of the Irish News to early timing in going behind a paywall when there was still sufficient demand for the product on offer.
I’m primarily citing the Telegraph here because as a brand we can all relate to how dominant it used to be on counters, street corners, newsagent frontage, etc. Prior to the National Lottery, the Belfast Telegraph was the premium product all small shops wanted to stock.
In the days of the local newsagent, it was the product that brought people in for the daily visits that led to more profitable purchases. That was the case in cities and towns all over the UK, and with the Evening Herald in Dublin. But they were evening papers.
The only news brand available in the afternoon, offering an up to date news service unavailable anywhere else. They weren’t “papers of record” and generally they weren’t intended to be intellectually improving.
But no other news brands gave communities such a thorough mix of local news and sport every afternoon. They had brand loyalty like no other. And they were very, very profitable.
The question mark over this strategy is whether or not it assumes too much brand loyalty from readers. I fear it does. I was always led to believe that loyalty to a daily newspaper was based on habit. That why the home delivery network was so important.
I worked on a newspaper in Wolverhampton that sold just short of 200,000 copies. 75% of those were home delivered. That was 150,000 guaranteed sales 52 weeks a year! The owners spent a fortune every year to maintain that until migration online of the highest yielding ad revenues from Jobs made that strategy unsustainable.
The Belfast Telegraph had around 60% which also demonstrated an incredibly high level of reader satisfaction.
The determination not to break the habit led us to come into frequent conflict with newsagents over the publisher’s insistence that they still opened and home-delivered on the likes of Boxing Day, Easter Monday and the Twelfth.
The fear was that if they couldn’t get our paper one day they might try another, and like it more. Even worse they might just not miss their paper and so cancel it. All papers had that fear but the strong ones also had the muscle to do something about it.
The reality is that the habit began to break more than a decade ago and the gap between papers and their traditional readers has been continually widening ever since. COVID-19 has put overwhelming pressure on the remaining loyal readers.
They are predominantly older and the very people who won’t have been able to get to their local shop each day in the absence of what’s left of the home delivery network.
Age notwithstanding, those older people not increasingly have access to online news sources. They’ve been forced to use them in recent months. So, by necessity, they’ve become more switched on to how to access news quickly, from wider sources and for free.
For its “premium” content the Belfast Telegraph is charging £7.99 per month for the basic online package. By any terms, that’s a very reasonable price, and it’s less than the Irish News (£15 per month).
But in 2020 we need to also consider that it’s in the same ballpark as Spotify and Apple News, Netflix and Amazon Prime.
I couldn’t get through a day without Spotify and my life would be diminished without the two streaming services. They’ve stopped being luxuries for most people and are now necessities. Just like newspapers used to be.
So, if you’re already paying maybe £140 per month for your media (including Sky) will you pay more for online newspaper content? For brands that have lost a lot of their former traction?
In my case, there are three columnists in the Telegraph whose work I really like – Eilis O’Hanlon, Malachi O’Doherty and Suzanne Breen. As a Glentoran supporter, I like to know what various media are saying about the Irish League. But that’s were it stops.
The News Letter actually punches above its weight on local sport, considering it lost a very strong Sports Editor and a very good football writer in previous redundancy programmes.
Newspapers stopped “breaking news” in print a good fifteen years ago or more, as the internet rendered it impossible to “hold” a story of any significance until publishing time. I’m not looking for a job, a car, or a new house so its advertising isn’t going to attract me.
The best possible time to introduce paywalls was fifteen or so years ago was the time. When people still felt they needed their regional daily newspaper. That’s when the Irish News did it with the success that has extended the lifespan of the brand.
This is a measure that may generate (or maybe simply replace) revenue in the short term, but also has the negative effect of alienating the current high number of waverers and driving them into the hands of other information providers.
I sympathise with the editors, journalists, and sales staff in the regions. For a couple of generations now they have been isolated in a world-changing at an unmanageable pace.
Rather than have the breathing space to build brands thoughtfully and strategically, constantly firefighting to extend the life of an increasingly obsolete business model, they have belatedly plupmed for paywalls which, for many, be a final throw of the dice.
I fear this particular dice has no spots! Are regional dailies like the Telegraph, News Letter and Irish News saveable in the medium or even long term?
We have an opportunity to see for ourselves both north and south of the border through the recent purchase of Independent News & Media (INM) by the Belgian media company Mediahuis. This is a relatively new company, just formed in 2013,
It will be interesting to see where the priorities of Mediahuis lie. In the Republic INM accounts for more than 50% of the daily newspaper market and more than 65% of the Sunday market. In Northern Ireland, based on an estimate from the TGI Report in 2018, INM papers account for around 17% of the daily and between 34-40% of the Sunday market (this is readership rather than sales as sales figures are not universally available in any generally accepted format).
So did they actively want the Belfast stable of titles, or did they primarily want the national stable they bought in the Republic (where they also took control of nine weekly newspapers, some of them very strong brands in very strong markets)?
Consider that the entire INM group sold in 2019 for £125.2m, compared to the £300m INM paid for the Belfast Telegraph & Sunday Life alone in March 2000. It gives an indication of the magnitude of the task facing Mediahuis.
Where will the Telegraph fit into their list of early priorities and can Mediahuis revive the fading Belfast Telegraph brand?
What may be a positive for the Telegraph is that this is a new business, unburdened by either the moribund thinking or the “manage decline” mentality that has hung over UK and Irish publishers for a decade and more, with reduced paginations and weak content without considering their online offerings.
So, at least, there is no legacy of business failure in Mediahuis. They will however need to decide if their priority is to save and grow print, or to reposition the brands as a genuinely attractive online proposition rather than a few repurposed print stories.
Belfast Live has a relatively young, progressive editorial team with an eye for the quirky, the different, and the interesting. They turn stories around quickly. With no legacy to protect and if handled right it may well outlast its print sister the Daily Mirror.
It may be easier for Mediahuis to focus on using some of their younger, more talented managers and writers with their strong market knowledge to develop new brands of this nature (Joe.ie is another good example) while ultimately allowing the market to over time make its effective decisions on older brands like the Telegraph.
The readerships are rapidly ageing and not being topped up. It may well be that progressive publishers decide to let that take its course and attract a younger online audience through the new brands.
Someone someday soon will crack the challenge of monetising these brands. Why shouldn’t that be Mediahuis?


sluggerotoole--2020-06-22--‘Politicians will argue, they will fight over it and they will come up with reasons for not dealing

‘Politicians will argue, they will fight over it and they will come up with reasons for not dealing with the past’

It was hoped that the Patten reforms would herald a new start for policing in Northern Ireland , but , argues Denis Bradley , the PSNI remains burdened with its legacy from the old RUC .
Denis is a former vice-chair of the Northern Ireland Policing Board and co-chair of the Consultative Group on the Past .
He was talking in the latest Forward Together podcast from the Holywell Trust .
“ In the setting-up of the PSNI , the new service inherited , carried with it , the deeds of the RUC .
That was done at the time @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , I wouldn ’ t have any great problem with that , ” says Denis .
“ The difficulty with it was that it was taking the past with it , in the sense that it had to deal with the past while being part of the conflict itself .
That left it in a bit of a bind .
That goes through right to the present day .
It may have been better to not carry the deeds of the RUC with it , but we are where we are , as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The other thing is that in the establishment of it , the RUC overhung the new policing service .
So does the conflict , in the sense that neither did militant republicanism totally go away , with dissidents breaking off from the Provisional IRA .
Their whole base was within nationalist working class areas and they kept their presence there , through things like the Omagh bomb and right up to the present day .
“ While one of the most prominent people in the whole Provisional organisation , Martin McGuinness – and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ them as ‘ militarily pathetic ’ , they also carried a threat – and the main threat was against the new policing service , on the grounds that they claimed that it wasn ’ t a fully re-established , reconstituted , independent service.
” This created serious challenges for the PSNI , made worse , argues Denis , by the lack of any tradition or culture of organised policing in working class nationalist areas .
Though , he stresses , these areas were lawful , they were not used to a uniformed police @ @ @ @ @ @ @ factors meant that “ policing in these communities was not what it should have been ” .
That should have led to a heavy concentration of recruiting police officers from those communities , along with a strong commitment to community policing in those areas – but that did not happen , says Denis .
Yet , despite this , community satisfaction with policing in Northern Ireland is by international standards unusually high – at around 80 % , which is comparable to that across Europe .
“ Certainly higher than in some other @ @ @ @ @ @ @ explains Denis .
The PSNI remains a difficult force to lead .
Chief constables who had a background in the RUC have found it impossible to shake off their association with the past , while all but one of those who came from England have been accused of naivety in their understanding of the complications of Northern Ireland society .
Denis believes that only by tackling the inherent problems that he described can these leadership challenges be overcome .
“ I don ’ t think it matters so much who is the chief @ @ @ @ @ @ @ only one person.
” Denis praises the PSNI for improving community relationships across much of Northern Ireland .
“ I think that they have worked reasonably hard , and partially successfully , integrating themselves into communities .
I get good feedback at times.
” Denis adds : “ I don ’ t believe the middle class in any country has difficulty with policing… .
Where you find problems in most countries is in working class communities.
” Structures of accountability should mean that the PSNI is challenged to improve policing in Northern Ireland @ @ @ @ @ @ @ nationalist areas .
But instead , says Denis , the response is “ if we go in and do what you are asking us to do , we will get ourselves killed ” .
Policing anywhere works though a combination of trust and what might be termed ‘ dispassionate engagement ’ , argues Denis .
“ If the community it is policing has more trust and respect in it than it has mistrust and disrespect – if the balance is 50 , 60 , 70 % -then policing can tackle most things – @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , in good times and in bad .
“ If , on the other hand , it is 30 , or 40 , or 15 or 20 % – a minority feeling of trust – then in good times or bad that community will not liaise with , will not communicate with , policing in ways that are positive and successful in policing terms .
If you scale that up into situations where there is organised crime , where people use guns , use drugs , or are very ruthless and violent , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ whether the community has trust in the police enough as a humane body , but also as a professional body .
Then that police force will be more powerful and more successful than the organised crime .
“ Dublin is a perfect example of that .
Where communities have been more frightened of the drug gangs than the police , with young people more attracted to crime gangs than to the police.
” It then becomes necessary for the police to engage with communities to generate the respect necessary to defeat crime gangs @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the legacy of the RUC , and the complaints of its operations as a partisan force , there is also the legacy of Troubles killings .
With the UK government apparently committed to avoiding new prosecutions of soldiers , this has again become extremely contentious .
Denis is wary about moves to set up another committee looking at the past , given the work that he and Archbishop Lord Robin Eames were engaged in when co-chairing the Consultative Group on the Past , which contained just three people .
“ One of my @ @ @ @ @ @ @ which came about ten years after the Consultative Group on the Past , in its management of how to deal with the past has about 30 , or 40 , or 60 people involved , in the sense that each aspect has more and more people involved , including a very strong representation from our political parties .
“ I have never been of the opinion that the political parties are capable of dealing with the past .
They will argue , they will fight over it and they will come up with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ But they will never deal with it .
There will always be a stand-off.
” The Consultative Group addressed this by concluding that the two governments – the UK and Ireland – would have to resolve the problems .
“ The second thing in dealing with the past is to be incredibly sensitive towards the victims .
But in dealing with victims you must never allow the victims to be the leaders around this .
There will always be divisions .
They have different narratives and different needs and different passions .
So @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be the leaders in this .
And to some extent victims have been politicised.
” Those comments were made by Denis several weeks before the arguments emerged that are now holding up the payment of pensions to Troubles survivors .
But the deadlock certainly seems to vindicate his observations .
This latest podcast in the second Forward Together series is available here on the website of peace and reconciliation charity Holywell Trust .
It is funded by the Community Relations Council ’ s Media Grant Scheme Disclaimer : This project has received support @ @ @ @ @ @ @ which aims to promote a pluralist society characterised by equity , respect for diversity , and recognition of interdependence .
The views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of the Community Relations Council .

It was hoped that the Patten reforms would herald a new start for policing in Northern Ireland, but, argues Denis Bradley, the PSNI remains burdened with its legacy from the old RUC. Denis is a former vice-chair of the Northern Ireland Policing Board and co-chair of the Consultative Group on the Past. He was talking in the latest Forward Together podcast from the Holywell Trust.
“In the setting-up of the PSNI, the new service inherited, carried with it, the deeds of the RUC. That was done at the time to placate unionism, which is understandable, I wouldn’t have any great problem with that,” says Denis.
“The difficulty with it was that it was taking the past with it, in the sense that it had to deal with the past while being part of the conflict itself. That left it in a bit of a bind. That goes through right to the present day. It may have been better to not carry the deeds of the RUC with it, but we are where we are, as they say.”
Denis adds: “The other thing is that in the establishment of it, the RUC overhung the new policing service. So does the conflict, in the sense that neither did militant republicanism totally go away, with dissidents breaking off from the Provisional IRA. Their whole base was within nationalist working class areas and they kept their presence there, through things like the Omagh bomb and right up to the present day.
“While one of the most prominent people in the whole Provisional organisation, Martin McGuinness – and within the new political establishment – described them as ‘militarily pathetic’, they also carried a threat – and the main threat was against the new policing service, on the grounds that they claimed that it wasn’t a fully re-established, reconstituted, independent service.”
This created serious challenges for the PSNI, made worse, argues Denis, by the lack of any tradition or culture of organised policing in working class nationalist areas. Though, he stresses, these areas were lawful, they were not used to a uniformed police service being present. This combination of factors meant that “policing in these communities was not what it should have been”. That should have led to a heavy concentration of recruiting police officers from those communities, along with a strong commitment to community policing in those areas – but that did not happen, says Denis.
Yet, despite this, community satisfaction with policing in Northern Ireland is by international standards unusually high – at around 80%, which is comparable to that across Europe. “Certainly higher than in some other countries, such as America,” explains Denis.
The PSNI remains a difficult force to lead. Chief constables who had a background in the RUC have found it impossible to shake off their association with the past, while all but one of those who came from England have been accused of naivety in their understanding of the complications of Northern Ireland society. Denis believes that only by tackling the inherent problems that he described can these leadership challenges be overcome. “I don’t think it matters so much who is the chief constable, because he or she is only one person.”
Denis praises the PSNI for improving community relationships across much of Northern Ireland. “I think that they have worked reasonably hard, and partially successfully, integrating themselves into communities. I get good feedback at times.” Denis adds: “I don’t believe the middle class in any country has difficulty with policing…. Where you find problems in most countries is in working class communities.”
Structures of accountability should mean that the PSNI is challenged to improve policing in Northern Ireland’s working class areas, including nationalist areas. But instead, says Denis, the response is “if we go in and do what you are asking us to do, we will get ourselves killed”.
Policing anywhere works though a combination of trust and what might be termed ‘dispassionate engagement’, argues Denis. “If the community it is policing has more trust and respect in it than it has mistrust and disrespect – if the balance is 50, 60, 70% -then policing can tackle most things – they will take the community with it, in good times and in bad.
“If, on the other hand, it is 30, or 40, or 15 or 20% – a minority feeling of trust – then in good times or bad that community will not liaise with, will not communicate with, policing in ways that are positive and successful in policing terms. If you scale that up into situations where there is organised crime, where people use guns, use drugs, or are very ruthless and violent, then you have the clash – between whether the community has trust in the police enough as a humane body, but also as a professional body. Then that police force will be more powerful and more successful than the organised crime.
“Dublin is a perfect example of that. Where communities have been more frightened of the drug gangs than the police, with young people more attracted to crime gangs than to the police.” It then becomes necessary for the police to engage with communities to generate the respect necessary to defeat crime gangs.
While the PSNI are dealing with the legacy of the RUC, and the complaints of its operations as a partisan force, there is also the legacy of Troubles killings. With the UK government apparently committed to avoiding new prosecutions of soldiers, this has again become extremely contentious.
Denis is wary about moves to set up another committee looking at the past, given the work that he and Archbishop Lord Robin Eames were engaged in when co-chairing the Consultative Group on the Past, which contained just three people. “One of my fears around the Stormont House Agreement, which came about ten years after the Consultative Group on the Past, in its management of how to deal with the past has about 30, or 40, or 60 people involved, in the sense that each aspect has more and more people involved, including a very strong representation from our political parties.
“I have never been of the opinion that the political parties are capable of dealing with the past. They will argue, they will fight over it and they will come up with reasons for not dealing with things. But they will never deal with it. There will always be a stand-off.” The Consultative Group addressed this by concluding that the two governments – the UK and Ireland – would have to resolve the problems.
“The second thing in dealing with the past is to be incredibly sensitive towards the victims. But in dealing with victims you must never allow the victims to be the leaders around this. There will always be divisions. They have different narratives and different needs and different passions. So you can never allow the victims to be the leaders in this. And to some extent victims have been politicised.”
Those comments were made by Denis several weeks before the arguments emerged that are now holding up the payment of pensions to Troubles survivors. But the deadlock certainly seems to vindicate his observations.
This latest podcast in the second Forward Together series is available here on the website of peace and reconciliation charity Holywell Trust. It is funded by the Community Relations Council’s Media Grant Scheme
Disclaimer: This project has received support from the Northern Ireland Community Relations Council which aims to promote a pluralist society characterised by equity, respect for diversity, and recognition of interdependence. The views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of the Community Relations Council.


sluggerotoole--2020-06-23--The composition of the next Irish government lies entirely in the hands of all island Green members

What to make of the government formation process in the south ?
Well , for one thing , those pouring cold water on the time it has taken should note Theresa Reidy ’ s Cargo of Bricks observation that it has been affected deeply by Covid 19 social distancing rules .
Also , Fine Gael has been in no rush to bring its dominance of government to a premature end whilst its barely questioned command of the news flows are bringing it no end of good news even if members of the cabinet are no longer in the Oireachtas .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ timelines turned out to be little more than enabling works of fiction seems to have barely fizzed with most of the media and judging by the polls now swinging into territory the party has barely seen in the whole of its existence .
The Taoiseach ’ s ambition of dispatching his party ’ s arch-rival ( Fianna Fáil ) to history has looked like a fantasy , but his rising popularity during the lockdown ( the fictions brought comforting clarity ) FF has never looked more like a Norwegian Blue .
This fascinating @ @ @ @ @ @ @ programme for government ( which is expected to pass comfortably inside Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael , but is far from a done deal in the Greens ) , shows how far the party has declined .
In her interview with Mick Clifford , Theresa says her election research shows that whilst Sinn Féin dominated the public mind on health and housing , and Fine Gael was thought best at the economy and Brexit , Fianna Fáil is not remembered for anything .
So , where are we ?
Well , the votes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on Friday .
Fine Gael has the least arduous job with a weighting system which will the least time .
The Greens need a two-thirds majority , and Fianna Fail a simple majority .
It ’ s unlikely that either Fianna Fáil members will want to stand down not least because they don ’ t want another election and this once all-powerful party of government hasn ’ t seen the inside of ministerial offices for nearly ten years .
Senior Greens in Northern Ireland who have 195 registered votes ( from 800 ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ stands seemingly believing a better one can be negotiated .
Dropping out after inputting into a PfG , also drops their agenda in the lap of FF/FG .
Perhaps the minor ( social justice ) faction in the south thinks that by walking now , they will avoid an angry kicking from Sinn Féin for collaborating with Tweedles Dum and Dee .
But the advantage may run in SF ’ s favour , either way .
Fine Gael for its part would hardly be upset at a Green party withdrawal .
Indeed , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ future policy initiatives and Simon Coveney has [ helpfully ?
– Ed ] been talking up the possibility of a second election .
A run to the country doesn ’ t look immediately possible ( but who knows with this ever flexible timetable ? )
, but summer would be an optimal time for a run to the country with a broad centrist offering ( courtesy of the Greens and FF ) and only SF to worry about .
If the Greens pass the PfG , then the Dail moves to the Dublin @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on Saturday ( precedents are being set all over the shop this year ) .
And the beginning of a tough slog for all involved .
“ Dáil Éireann ” by justinpickard is licensed under CC BY-SA

What to make of the government formation process in the south? Well, for one thing, those pouring cold water on the time it has taken should note Theresa Reidy’s Cargo of Bricks observation that it has been affected deeply by Covid 19 social distancing rules.
Also, Fine Gael has been in no rush to bring its dominance of government to a premature end whilst its barely questioned command of the news flows are bringing it no end of good news even if members of the cabinet are no longer in the Oireachtas.
The fact that most of its projected timelines turned out to be little more than enabling works of fiction seems to have barely fizzed with most of the media and judging by the polls now swinging into territory the party has barely seen in the whole of its existence.
The Taoiseach’s ambition of dispatching his party’s arch-rival (Fianna Fáil) to history has looked like a fantasy, but his rising popularity during the lockdown (the fictions brought comforting clarity) FF has never looked more like a Norwegian Blue.
This fascinating analysis from Derek Mooney on the prospective programme for government (which is expected to pass comfortably inside Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, but is far from a done deal in the Greens), shows how far the party has declined.
In her interview with Mick Clifford, Theresa says her election research shows that whilst Sinn Féin dominated the public mind on health and housing, and Fine Gael was thought best at the economy and Brexit, Fianna Fáil is not remembered for anything.
So, where are we? Well, the votes of all three prospective parties are counted on Friday. Fine Gael has the least arduous job with a weighting system which will the least time. The Greens need a two-thirds majority, and Fianna Fail a simple majority.
It’s unlikely that either Fianna Fáil members will want to stand down not least because they don’t want another election and this once all-powerful party of government hasn’t seen the inside of ministerial offices for nearly ten years.
Senior Greens in Northern Ireland who have 195 registered votes (from 800) have spoken against the deal as it stands seemingly believing a better one can be negotiated. Dropping out after inputting into a PfG, also drops their agenda in the lap of FF/FG.
Perhaps the minor (social justice) faction in the south thinks that by walking now, they will avoid an angry kicking from Sinn Féin for collaborating with Tweedles Dum and Dee. But the advantage may run in SF’s favour, either way.
Fine Gael for its part would hardly be upset at a Green party withdrawal. Indeed, the Taoiseach has already been busy announcing future policy initiatives and Simon Coveney has [helpfully? – Ed] been talking up the possibility of a second election.
A run to the country doesn’t look immediately possible (but who knows with this ever flexible timetable?), but summer would be an optimal time for a run to the country with a broad centrist offering (courtesy of the Greens and FF) and only SF to worry about.
If the Greens pass the PfG, then the Dail moves to the Dublin Conference Centre to choose the next Taoiseach on Saturday (precedents are being set all over the shop this year). And the beginning of a tough slog for all involved.
“Dáil Éireann” by justinpickard is licensed under CC BY-SA


sluggerotoole--2020-06-24--Normality returns; so why can’t I spend a penny?

Opening up our commercial and social lives we maybe but it ’ s still not much fun .
Walking into town last week I struggled to sense that expected joy from the ending of lockdown .
In spite of some hopeful optimism and open shop doors , many aspects of communal life remain shut and as I passed the doors of locked and shuttered pubs I yearned to visit inside , loiter with friends I haven ’ t seen for months , drink beer and talk rubbish .
It will happen I whispered to myself confident and hopeful of a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I loved so much but which I was forced to leave in early March .
The oppression of Covid rules and regulation , mostly imposed by indolent youth who only know negative power ; “ don ’ t stand beyond the line ” , “ don ’ t go that way ” , “ stop on that spot ” , fills me with dread .
These are fascist diktats not helpful instructions to stay safe !
Anyway , my first wish on my walking odyssey was to buy a coffee and , if @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of cake and , since the weather was in its late Spring splendour , to sit outside and watch the World go by ; just as I use to .
My first stop was a café with tables outside but as I got closer the sign told me not to use them .
So , I follow the one-way system in and approached the young woman standing behind a Perspex-screen wearing a facial visor , and over her mouth a medical mask .
She wore plastic gloves , and on her body , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for a long shift in ICU not being a part of the café culture experience .
Only her eyes told me she was friendly and welcoming and that at least made me feel better .
It told me that somewhere underneath all this PPE the old world still existed .
I ordered a coffee and a piece of coffee cake from the sparse display behind the Perspex .
Could I wait outside she asked after taking my order but then refused my cash ; only card payments .
Covid was to blame and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ home , we apologised to each other and I left .
She was the first of four cafes on my walk into the city centre that refused cash .
I was not making a stand or a point I simply wanted a coffee .
It was then , an hour from home , that I noted with some mild concern that access to public conveniences was also restricted .
At one of my card-payment coffee-stops the friendly young hipster with a magnificent beard , one that would make an excellent home for a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ his toilets were closed and Covid was to blame .
With my advancing years and my daily medicines regimen , I have over recent times identified a number of preferred toilets stops in Belfast city centre which normally worked well for my needs .
Top of my list are the toilets on the third floor of a well-known national store .
The urinals are spotless and the toilets are Armitage , they are fragrant and constantly cleaned and a “ caught-short ” shopper could not ask for more .
The store was opened @ @ @ @ @ @ @ toilets was denied by stern security personal tasked with counting shoppers in and out .
The Chapel Lane public toilets , one of the few still operated by Belfast City Council and paid for from my rates , were shuttered closed .
For the uninitiated , these public conveniences can be intimidating and I do agree that in their locked cubicles much illicit drug use takes place .
But those individuals normally do not sense the presence of others and never hassle the weak bladdered .
Alternatively , especially when PSNI officers and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the loos in any of the many pubs around knowing I have paid for my use many times over ; but inconveniently , not today .
To my delight I found that the toilets on the lower ground floor of Victoria Square opened and by this stage , as you can imagine , my initial mild concern had escalated to something near controlled panic .
This was not helped when I surveyed the queue from the door of the toilets snaking back to the steps for the viewing gallery .
This was not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ across to Custom House Square where I had a vague recollection of a coin-operated convenience near the crossing to the Fish .
Did I have a 20p coin ?
That question was merely academic as these toilets too were closed and I then rang my son who has a flat close by and whom I thought was at work .
My good luck his furloughed partner was home and my ordeal resolved .
No , it was not an encouraging walk around my home town .
We are as far from normality and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , judge normality by the access citizens have to ; the easy purchase of a hot beverage and a convenient comfort break .
“ Smokin ’ in the Boys ’ Room ” by kla4067 is licensed under CC BY-SA

Opening up our commercial and social lives we maybe but it’s still not much fun. Walking into town last week I struggled to sense that expected joy from the ending of lockdown. In spite of some hopeful optimism and open shop doors, many aspects of communal life remain shut and as I passed the doors of locked and shuttered pubs I yearned to visit inside, loiter with friends I haven’t seen for months, drink beer and talk rubbish. It will happen I whispered to myself confident and hopeful of a future not too dissimilar to the past I loved so much but which I was forced to leave in early March. The oppression of Covid rules and regulation, mostly imposed by indolent youth who only know negative power; “don’t stand beyond the line”, “don’t go that way”, “stop on that spot”, fills me with dread. These are fascist diktats not helpful instructions to stay safe!
Anyway, my first wish on my walking odyssey was to buy a coffee and, if I was really lucky, a piece of cake and, since the weather was in its late Spring splendour, to sit outside and watch the World go by; just as I use to. My first stop was a café with tables outside but as I got closer the sign told me not to use them. So, I follow the one-way system in and approached the young woman standing behind a Perspex-screen wearing a facial visor, and over her mouth a medical mask. She wore plastic gloves, and on her body, a plastic apron. She was dressed for a long shift in ICU not being a part of the café culture experience. Only her eyes told me she was friendly and welcoming and that at least made me feel better. It told me that somewhere underneath all this PPE the old world still existed. I ordered a coffee and a piece of coffee cake from the sparse display behind the Perspex. Could I wait outside she asked after taking my order but then refused my cash; only card payments. Covid was to blame and since I had left my cash-card at home, we apologised to each other and I left. She was the first of four cafes on my walk into the city centre that refused cash. I was not making a stand or a point I simply wanted a coffee.
It was then, an hour from home, that I noted with some mild concern that access to public conveniences was also restricted. At one of my card-payment coffee-stops the friendly young hipster with a magnificent beard, one that would make an excellent home for a family of swallows, told me that his toilets were closed and Covid was to blame.
With my advancing years and my daily medicines regimen, I have over recent times identified a number of preferred toilets stops in Belfast city centre which normally worked well for my needs. Top of my list are the toilets on the third floor of a well-known national store. The urinals are spotless and the toilets are Armitage, they are fragrant and constantly cleaned and a “caught-short” shopper could not ask for more. The store was opened for food sales so access to the toilets was denied by stern security personal tasked with counting shoppers in and out. The Chapel Lane public toilets, one of the few still operated by Belfast City Council and paid for from my rates, were shuttered closed. For the uninitiated, these public conveniences can be intimidating and I do agree that in their locked cubicles much illicit drug use takes place. But those individuals normally do not sense the presence of others and never hassle the weak bladdered. Alternatively, especially when PSNI officers and ambulances block the entrance, I use the loos in any of the many pubs around knowing I have paid for my use many times over; but inconveniently, not today.
To my delight I found that the toilets on the lower ground floor of Victoria Square opened and by this stage, as you can imagine, my initial mild concern had escalated to something near controlled panic. This was not helped when I surveyed the queue from the door of the toilets snaking back to the steps for the viewing gallery. This was not going to work I concluded and headed across to Custom House Square where I had a vague recollection of a coin-operated convenience near the crossing to the Fish. Did I have a 20p coin? That question was merely academic as these toilets too were closed and I then rang my son who has a flat close by and whom I thought was at work. My good luck his furloughed partner was home and my ordeal resolved.
No, it was not an encouraging walk around my home town. We are as far from normality and you can, I often will say, judge normality by the access citizens have to; the easy purchase of a hot beverage and a convenient comfort break.
“Smokin’ in the Boys’ Room” by kla4067 is licensed under CC BY-SA


sluggerotoole--2020-06-24--#CargoOfBricks Ep 5: After the #Covid sledgehammer, can Northern Ireland’s politicians continue to l

#CargoOfBricks Ep 5: After the #Covid sledgehammer, can Northern Ireland’s politicians continue to lead?

In episode five of Cargo of Bricks podcast , I spoke to Tina McKenzie who is the current chair of the FSB in Northern Ireland as well as CEO of Grafton Recruiting and honorary consul to Finland about how business had coped with the lockdown .
• The fact that there was no time to plan for the massive disruption that lockdown would bring , that businesses had some big decisions to make without a lot of guidance from government in London or Belfast .
It was a leap into the unknown .
• But working from home has forced @ @ @ @ @ @ @ operates .
Outputs became the key focus , and as outputs held up people relaxed .
And new rules were brought into to protect the tricky work/life for people working at home .
• In terms of politics , COVID has made people more flexible in their thinking .
They are willing to trust politicians to show similar leadership on Brexit , and to take tough decisions in health and schools to free up cash for investment elsewhere .
Enjoy and see you next week .
You can subscribe to Cargo of Bricks @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on Apple Podcasts | Google Podcasts or Spotify .
The YouTube version below has subtitles on it if you click the CC button…

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sluggerotoole--2020-06-24--On Sinn Féin’s [false] ‘centre left’ credentials, as it struggles to grant free school meals through

On Sinn Féin’s [false] ‘centre left’ credentials, as it struggles to grant free school meals through the summer.

I ’ ve been busy with other things all day , but this is worth hearing your comments on ...
The decision to extend the current free school meals scheme was announced last Friday – Northern Ireland is the only region of the UK yet to approve the scheme , with local schools to close for summer next week .
Stormont ministers were to sign off on a £12m package to extend meals for 97,000 vulnerable children on Monday , as well as cash for the health service and local airports .
However , it is reported that none of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ agenda , reportedly due to arguments over whether funding to set up the Troubles victims ’ pension scheme should also be approved .
Now , officially this can not be confirmed , because all parties concerned are bound by cabinet confidentiality .
But it is a party trope of an old date that ’ s been used several times in the past by Sinn Féin over the devolution of policing , and welfare reform .
It is a classic cake and eat it strategy , not least because there will be opportunities to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ go off in their summer holidays at which point the Executive will be allowed to make good on its promises .
Unlike Welfare Reform , they can not hand it back to the Conservative government since they ’ ve already been bounced into doing the right thing under public moral pressure exerted by the Man Utd player Marcus Rashford .
So we are entertained by this sort of nonsense emanating from the Sinn Féin Minister of Finance… Last week Finance Minister Conor Murphy promised the money would be found to cover the summer @ @ @ @ @ @ @ he would ask for the funding .
But in a statement yesterday Sinn Fein appeared to blame Mr Weir for the delay .
The party ’ s Foyle MLA Karen Mullan said : “ The minister for education must end the delay and extend the payment to the 97,000 children who rely on them over the summer.
” However , the Department of Education responded that the meals plan had been backed by the Executive “ and the department awaits approval of the necessary budget ” – which it said must also come @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it is always someone else ’ s fault ( even when it clearly isn ’ t ) is pure Trump .
In their book , Angrynomics , Eric Lonergan and Mark Blyth provide the simplest explanation of how and why such tribalism becomes destructive to its host : In that case , it was Brexit and Trump ’ s wall .
In this case , Sinn Féin are sidelining an intervention intended to help the very families who regularly put them into power is forgone in order to be seen to serve the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ It ’ s certainly not the social democracy that many commentators in the Republic are quietly trying to convince themselves it is .
It ’ s not even centre-left .
It ’ s good old fashioned fanaticism , red and raw .
Like Trump ’ s wall , it is also “ sound and fury signifying nothing ” , well , you know the rest… In Trump ’ s case , the point was never about having to build the wall just to keep the anger boiling and the waters roiled ( and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ No matter how much prejudicial nonsense the POTUS may talk , it can only work because his rivals to power have long since lost the point of what it means to try to change the world on behalf of the people they seek to represent .
In Ireland , we ’ re about to see if what remains of the plural centre has the resilience ( or policies ) to deal with this loud but largely empty tribalist challenge .
Change means action , even for a scratch on the surface like free @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Eoghan Harris combatively noted in the Sunday Independent this week : …when you try to get a grip on what “ change ” means , it turns into candy floss .
“ Change ” certainly doesn ’ t mean social democracy because Sinn Fein is just a populist party in the European ultra-nationalist mode with unionists playing the part of the outsiders .
“ Change ” also can ’ t mean that Sinn Fein alone has a monopoly on better housing and hospitals .
In fact , the programme for government has stolen @ @ @ @ @ @ @ clothes and left it with nothing but verbal rags .
As per the inscription on Karl Marx ’ s gravestone , “ the philosophers have only interpreted the world in various ways , the point is to change it ” .
Or as Churchill said , “ when you find yourself going through hell , keep going ” .
Photo by hermelin is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA

I’ve been busy with other things all day, but this is worth hearing your comments on...
The decision to extend the current free school meals scheme was announced last Friday – Northern Ireland is the only region of the UK yet to approve the scheme, with local schools to close for summer next week. Stormont ministers were to sign off on a £12m package to extend meals for 97,000 vulnerable children on Monday, as well as cash for the health service and local airports. However, it is reported that none of those decisions made it on to the agenda, reportedly due to arguments over whether funding to set up the Troubles victims’ pension scheme should also be approved.
Now, officially this cannot be confirmed, because all parties concerned are bound by cabinet confidentiality. But it is a party trope of an old date that’s been used several times in the past by Sinn Féin over the devolution of policing, and welfare reform.
It is a classic cake and eat it strategy, not least because there will be opportunities to get this fixed before the kids all go off in their summer holidays at which point the Executive will be allowed to make good on its promises.
Unlike Welfare Reform, they cannot hand it back to the Conservative government since they’ve already been bounced into doing the right thing under public moral pressure exerted by the Man Utd player Marcus Rashford.
So we are entertained by this sort of nonsense emanating from the Sinn Féin Minister of Finance…
Last week Finance Minister Conor Murphy promised the money would be found to cover the summer meals and Education Minister Peter Weir said he would ask for the funding. But in a statement yesterday Sinn Fein appeared to blame Mr Weir for the delay. The party’s Foyle MLA Karen Mullan said: “The minister for education must end the delay and extend the payment to the 97,000 children who rely on them over the summer.” However, the Department of Education responded that the meals plan had been backed by the Executive “and the department awaits approval of the necessary budget” – which it said must also come from the Executive.
The idea that it is always someone else’s fault (even when it clearly isn’t) is pure Trump. In their book, Angrynomics, Eric Lonergan and Mark Blyth provide the simplest explanation of how and why such tribalism becomes destructive to its host:
It hijacks genuine political debate and deflects us from the issues that really matter to people, like wages, housing, health care and education.
In that case, it was Brexit and Trump’s wall. In this case, Sinn Féin are sidelining an intervention intended to help the very families who regularly put them into power is forgone in order to be seen to serve the interests of their most fanatical supporters.
It’s certainly not the social democracy that many commentators in the Republic are quietly trying to convince themselves it is. It’s not even centre-left. It’s good old fashioned fanaticism, red and raw.
Like Trump’s wall, it is also “sound and fury signifying nothing”, well, you know the rest… In Trump’s case, the point was never about having to build the wall just to keep the anger boiling and the waters roiled (and helping papers sell more copy).
No matter how much prejudicial nonsense the POTUS may talk, it can only work because his rivals to power have long since lost the point of what it means to try to change the world on behalf of the people they seek to represent.
In Ireland, we’re about to see if what remains of the plural centre has the resilience (or policies) to deal with this loud but largely empty tribalist challenge. Change means action, even for a scratch on the surface like free school meals through the summer.
As Eoghan Harris combatively noted in the Sunday Independent this week:
…when you try to get a grip on what “change” means, it turns into candy floss. “Change” certainly doesn’t mean social democracy because Sinn Fein is just a populist party in the European ultra-nationalist mode with unionists playing the part of the outsiders. “Change” also can’t mean that Sinn Fein alone has a monopoly on better housing and hospitals. In fact, the programme for government has stolen most of Sinn Fein’s radical clothes and left it with nothing but verbal rags.
As per the inscription on Karl Marx’s gravestone, “the philosophers have only interpreted the world in various ways, the point is to change it”. Or as Churchill said, “when you find yourself going through hell, keep going”.
Photo by hermelin is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA