sluggerotoole--2020-03-07--On key issues, the general election survey shows the uncommitted or don’t knows are growing in numbe

On key issues, the general election survey shows the uncommitted or don’t knows are growing in number

Mick has dug deep for his reflections into the Northern Ireland general election survey commissioned by Liverpool University ’ s Institute of Irish Studies and conducted by Social Market Research ( SMR ) .
In this piece I wrote before I logged into Slugger ( and I frankly don ’ t want to waste it ) I gnaw more at the bone of opinion on unity .
The survey and its questions surely show how sensitive to events is general opinion and how volatile the events affecting long lasting themes .
On the abiding issues of the legacy for instance @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and Reconciliation Commission might entail especially when set against the Stormont House Agreement Bill for an independent historical investigations unit bitterly opposed by a unionist lobby and to which the government is still committed ?
Methodology as well as context like that above is important for gauging the often quite small differences in the potentially crucial swing votes .
The survey is based on a representative sample of Northern Ireland electors aged 18+ .
In total , interviews were conducted with 2003 electors representing each of the 18 Northern Ireland parliamentary constituencies .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ in respondent ’ s homes using Computer Assisted Personal Interviewing or CAPI .
3.1.1 Sampling… Overall 28.4 % state they are unionist and 24.6 % nationalist .
The largest group at 39.6 % are neither unionist nor nationalist .
This might be thought of as fertile ground for the Alliance party .
But their share has been boosted by defectors from elsewhere rather than the uncommitted .
And sooner later they may have to jump off the border fence or find a position that straddles it more deliberately , such as more equality @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a reviving GFA that preserves basic UK sovereignty .
There remains the issue of the use of signifiers , whether unionist/nationalist or Catholic /Protestant .
With the decline of religion as a signifier of identity , Catholics may exceed Protestants without reaching an overall majority .
Summary of main Findings from 2003 Surveyed Households : 1 .
Growth in inter-community support for Truth and Reconciliation Commission 2 .
Alliance Party electoral success based upon gaining previous voters from DUP and Sinn Fein 3 .
Protestant support to remain in UK rising whilst Catholic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ goods being checked between NI and GB and NI and Ireland 5 .
Most socially liberal group are young Protestant non-voters followed by their Catholic equivalent 6 .
Major attitudinal divides are not along traditional lines but between younger and older and voters and non-voters 7 .
Growth in female voters but majority of youth do not vote 8 .
The largest share of the electorate consider themselves as neither unionist nor nationalist 9 .
Those undecided on NI ’ s constitutional future are key to that future .
• Between 2010 and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ remaining in the union grew from 90.3 % to 94.5 % .
• In the same period the share of Catholics supportive of remaining in the union declined from 17.8 % to 13.6 % .
• More voters agree ( 40.3 % ) than disagree ( 30.9 % ) that the reunification of Ireland will happen .
• 76.9 % of non-voters who stated a preference are pro-remain within the UK .
In 2019 non-voters numbered c500k .
Unionism has a significant problem in not attracting pro-union members of the electorate to vote @ @ @ @ @ @ @ • The electoral success of the SDLP has changed their voter profile since 2017 .
The SDLP in gaining votes , primarily in Foyle and South Belfast , have ended up with a 22.6 % decline in their voters who wished to remain in the UK .
Professor Jon Tonge from the University of Liverpool , said : “ In terms of a border poll , election results may be a less accurate a guide to the desire for reunification especially when it is considered that 76.9 % of non-voters who stated a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ non-voters numbered circa 500,000.
” As well as non-voters , a critical group in deciding the outcome of any border poll will be Alliance voters .
The survey found that 58.8 % of Alliance voters support the Union and 25.6 % want Irish unity .
The survey was also run in 2010 , allowing comparisons as to how voters have shifted in that period .
Reflecting the increased tribalism in Northern Ireland , between 2010 and 2019 the share of Protestants who support remaining in the Union grew from 90.3 % to 94.5 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ supportive of remaining in the Union declined from 17.8 % to 13.6 % .
More voters agree ( 40.3 % ) than disagree ( 30.9 % ) that the reunification of Ireland will happen .
The survey also found a significant shift in favour of a truth and reconciliation commission , up from 31.5 % in favour in 2017 to 45.7 % .
A more decisive majority – 62.8 % – would now vote to remain in the EU , the poll found , with just one in 10 people saying that they @ @ @ @ @ @ @ referendum .
An identical percentage of people – 68.5 % – expressed their opposition to checks on goods either crossing between Great Britain and Northern Ireland , or across the Irish border .
The study found that 69.5 % of Catholics , compared to 10.7 % of Protestants and 22.4 % of the non-religious support an Irish Language Act .
Some 72.1 % of people supported the right to an abortion in some circumstances .
However , most were supportive in the highly restrictive circumstance of where the mother ’ s life is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was in Northern Ireland until last year ’ s change .
Just 9.2 % of women and 5.4 % of men supported abortion up to 28 weeks .
Although polling evidence is contradictory – with Belfast firm Lucid Talk ’ s polls consistently suggesting higher levels of support for Irish unity than most other polls – next week polling will be released which for several reasons will make grim reading for republicans .
( He wrote this last week ) .
Even after all the turmoil of Brexit , of three years without @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ash scandal , of the distrusted Boris Johnson as prime minister , there is scant evidence of the sort of surge in support for Irish unity which would be necessary to win a border poll .

Mick has dug deep for his reflections into the Northern Ireland general election survey commissioned by Liverpool University’s Institute of Irish Studies and conducted by Social Market Research (SMR). In this piece I wrote before I logged into Slugger (and I frankly don’t want to waste it) I gnaw more at the bone of opinion on unity.
The survey and its questions surely show how sensitive to events is general opinion and how volatile the events affecting long lasting themes.
On the abiding issues of the legacy for instance, is it clear what a Truth and Reconciliation Commission might entail especially when set against the Stormont House Agreement Bill for an independent historical investigations unit bitterly opposed by a unionist lobby and to which the government is still committed?
Methodology as well as context like that above is important for gauging the often quite small differences in the potentially crucial swing votes. The survey is based on a representative sample of Northern Ireland electors aged 18+. In total, interviews were conducted with 2003 electors representing each of the 18 Northern Ireland parliamentary constituencies. It was administered on a face-to-face basis in respondent’s homes using Computer Assisted Personal Interviewing or CAPI. 3.1.1 Sampling…
Overall 28.4% state they are unionist and 24.6% nationalist. The largest group at 39.6% are neither unionist nor nationalist. This might be thought of as fertile ground for the Alliance party. But their share has been boosted by defectors from elsewhere rather than the uncommitted. And sooner later they may have to jump off the border fence or find a position that straddles it more deliberately , such as more equality all round and cross border links within a reviving GFA that preserves basic UK sovereignty.
There remains the issue of the use of signifiers, whether unionist/nationalist or Catholic /Protestant. With the decline of religion as a signifier of identity, Catholics may exceed Protestants without reaching an overall majority.
Summary of main Findings from 2003 Surveyed Households:
1. Growth in inter-community support for Truth and Reconciliation Commission
2. Alliance Party electoral success based upon gaining previous voters from DUP and Sinn Fein
3. Protestant support to remain in UK rising whilst Catholic support declining
4. Major rejection of goods being checked between NI and GB and NI and Ireland
5. Most socially liberal group are young Protestant non-voters followed by their Catholic equivalent
6. Major attitudinal divides are not along traditional lines but between younger and older and voters and non-voters
7. Growth in female voters but majority of youth do not vote
8. The largest share of the electorate consider themselves as neither unionist nor nationalist
9. Those undecided on NI’s constitutional future are key to that future.
Union or Unity?
• Between 2010 and 2019 the share of Protestants who support remaining in the union grew from 90.3% to 94.5%.
In the same period the share of Catholics supportive of remaining in the union declined from 17.8% to 13.6%.
More voters agree (40.3%) than disagree (30.9%) that the reunification of Ireland will happen.
76.9% of non-voters who stated a preference are pro-remain within the UK. In 2019 non-voters numbered c500k. Unionism has a significant problem in not attracting pro-union members of the electorate to vote compared to nationalists and republican parties.
The electoral success of the SDLP has changed their voter profile since 2017. The SDLP in gaining votes, primarily in Foyle and South Belfast, have ended up with a 22.6% decline in their voters who wished to remain in the UK.
Professor Jon Tonge from the University of Liverpool, said: “In terms of a border poll, election results may be a less accurate a guide to the desire for reunification especially when it is considered that 76.9% of non-voters who stated a preference are pro-Union. In 2019, non-voters numbered circa 500,000.”
As well as non-voters, a critical group in deciding the outcome of any border poll will be Alliance voters. The survey found that 58.8% of Alliance voters support the Union and 25.6% want Irish unity.
The survey was also run in 2010, allowing comparisons as to how voters have shifted in that period. Reflecting the increased tribalism in Northern Ireland, between 2010 and 2019 the share of Protestants who support remaining in the Union grew from 90.3% to 94.5%, while the share of Catholics supportive of remaining in the Union declined from 17.8% to 13.6%.
More voters agree (40.3%) than disagree (30.9%) that the reunification of Ireland will happen.
The survey also found a significant shift in favour of a truth and reconciliation commission, up from 31.5% in favour in 2017 to 45.7%.
A more decisive majority – 62.8% – would now vote to remain in the EU, the poll found, with just one in 10 people saying that they would not vote in a second EU referendum.
An identical percentage of people – 68.5% – expressed their opposition to checks on goods either crossing between Great Britain and Northern Ireland, or across the Irish border.
The study found that 69.5% of Catholics, compared to 10.7% of Protestants and 22.4% of the non-religious support an Irish Language Act.
Some 72.1% of people supported the right to an abortion in some circumstances.
However, most were supportive in the highly restrictive circumstance of where the mother’s life is in danger – the law as it was in Northern Ireland until last year’s change. Just 9.2% of women and 5.4% of men supported abortion up to 28 weeks.
Sam McBride’s gloss in the Newsletter
Although polling evidence is contradictory – with Belfast firm Lucid Talk’s polls consistently suggesting higher levels of support for Irish unity than most other polls – next week polling will be released which for several reasons will make grim reading for republicans. ( He wrote this last week).
Even after all the turmoil of Brexit, of three years without devolved government, of the cash for ash scandal, of the distrusted Boris Johnson as prime minister, there is scant evidence of the sort of surge in support for Irish unity which would be necessary to win a border poll.


sluggerotoole--2020-03-07--Mike Mulvaney: Trump’s loss and Northern Ireland’s gain as new US special envoy appointed?

US President Trump has replaced his chief of staff and appointed Mick Mulvaney as US special envoy to Northern Ireland .
While the New York Times described his new role as “ a consolation prize ” , Mulvaney steps into the shoes of George Mitchell , Richard Haass , Meghan O ’ Sullivan , Mitchell Reiss , Paula Dobriansky , Declan Kelly and Gary Hart .
His replacement in the White House , North Carolinan Mark Meadows , will resign from Congress to take over as chief of staff in this crucial election year .
Donald Trump … prefers to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that have thwarted the best designs of his three previous chiefs .
Reince Priebus , a Republican Party functionary , was unable to control the rivalries and feuds that festered within the White House .
John Kelly , the former general , attempted to impose military discipline on the administration – and eventually clashed with the free-wheeling president .
Mick Mulvaney ’ s strategy to “ let Trump be Trump ” appeared to suit the president , but his missteps during the impeachment investigation eventually sealed his fate .
With incidents of loose @ @ @ @ @ @ @ assumed to be reason for his replacement , Mulvaney may need to be extra careful with his comments once on the ground in Northern Ireland if he is to use his undoubted political skill to make a contribution to the ongoing peace process .

US President Trump has sacked replaced his chief of staff and banished him appointed Mick Mulvaney as US special envoy to Northern Ireland.
While the New York Times described his new role as “a consolation prize”, Mulvaney steps into the shoes of George Mitchell, Richard Haass, Meghan O’Sullivan, Mitchell Reiss, Paula Dobriansky, Declan Kelly and Gary Hart.
His replacement in the White House, North Carolinan Mark Meadows, will resign from Congress to take over as chief of staff in this crucial election year.
The BBC’s North American Anthony Zurcher comments:
Donald Trump … prefers to operate on instinct and improvisation – attributes that have thwarted the best designs of his three previous chiefs. Reince Priebus, a Republican Party functionary, was unable to control the rivalries and feuds that festered within the White House. John Kelly, the former general, attempted to impose military discipline on the administration – and eventually clashed with the free-wheeling president. Mick Mulvaney’s strategy to “let Trump be Trump” appeared to suit the president, but his missteps during the impeachment investigation eventually sealed his fate.
With incidents of loose language (and embarrassing roll backs) assumed to be reason for his replacement, Mulvaney may need to be extra careful with his comments once on the ground in Northern Ireland if he is to use his undoubted political skill to make a contribution to the ongoing peace process.
– – –
Fist Minister Arlene Foster responded to the new US envoy:
“We met Mr Mulvaney during his recent trip to Belfast and welcomed his interest in the restoration of a power-sharing Executive. The United States has been a loyal friend to Northern Ireland and the appointment of the new Special Envoy will be important in developing that friendship. The US is a key market for us and we will be using our time in Washington next week to get the message across that we are open for businesses, an attractive place to invest with a skilled and strong work force.”
Deputy First Minister Michelle O’Neill said:
“I welcome the appointment of Mr Mulvaney and hope this role will allow him to build on the work of those who held the role before him in supporting the peace process and the Good Friday Agreement. We have strong historical, political and economic connections with the US and I look forward to working with the new Special Envoy during his term in office to build on those links as we work to protect our interests after Brexit.”


sluggerotoole--2020-03-07--Dispatches from the front-lines of the Coronavirus panic…

She almost punched the air with delight but her professionalism acted as a restraint .
She had the pleasure , the honour , the responsibility to announce to the public on TV News that N. Ireland had its first victim of the new plague that is Covid-19 .
This novel coronavirus that started off life in a pangolin sold as an exotic food from a fish-market in Wuhan , China , had finally reached these shores on a Thursday night .
Perhaps she had lost out before .
Maybe she had waited weeks and weeks to announce our first victim @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and then Zika Virus but no one locally contracted that .
She was very junior when SARS was big news and then MERS but nobody really knew much about MERS so it didn ’ t really matter .
As a health correspondent , this could be the pinnacle of her career .
Yet , I don ’ t think she appreciated the sheer panic she unleased in a public , in its infinite ignorance , already very worried indeed .
Only the day before a colleague , dedicated his fast pace morning radio @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Health Agency ( PHA ) .
His claim that PHA ’ s helpline advice was dangerously incorrect regarding Covid-19 was at best banal but he had the air-waves .
He asked how it could be that PHA was advising those just returned from Northern Italy , to “ self-isolate ” when that was “ incorrect advice ” .
The correct advice was for the call-handler to tell them to telephone the GP who would then tell them to “ self-isolate ” .
In the throes of a potentially serious plague this incompetence could @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ?
So by Friday morning , with one person recently returned from an Italian ski-trip incarcerated in Belfast ’ s Royal Victoria Hospital , the public had moved from general interest in coronavirus to blind panic about Covid-19 .
Raising my pharmacy shutter at 9.00 am a group of twenty swamped the shop demanding hand-sanitizer .
Staff , still with their coats on , had to reassure that handwashing was best in this the containment phase of the disease .
Over 200 visits before lunch-time were asking for the same product .
We @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a month following a visit from an assertive Chinese man who bought all I had before I had time to change the pricing labels .
( Note to self ; need to get better at profiteering ) .
So with little effort our media pundits had dramatically altered human behaviour .
People were doing things to protect themselves from a perceived threat , a threat that was frankly close to zero .
At that time it was almost impossible to catch Covid-19 locally short of sharing a handkerchief with the lady now imprisoned @ @ @ @ @ @ @ course the fear became more bizarre and extreme as the day went on .
An elderly lady , not known for her intelligent insights , was , she told us , going to Mass to pray for the Pope who she was convinced already suffered from Covid-19 since , at morning prayers in Rome , he blew his nose many times into the Papal hanky .
This , she added , was in addition to a plague of locusts eating all the crops in Africa all of which had been predicted in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ few customers waiting for prescriptions , a gentleman in the queue sneezed three times sending a middle-aged woman running screaming from the pharmacy in horror .
Friday over , Saturday was no better .
Supplies of antiseptic-solutions sold-out ; never a bad thing in retail .
Writing this piece a week after notification of our first case some sort of calm has returned but behaviour remain changed .
Hand-sanitizers we did get quickly sold in spite of a decent mark-up .
The wholesale price of a single disposable face-mask on e-bay is now @ @ @ @ @ @ @ last year .
We are struggling to keep stocks of antiseptic solutions and wipes and yet we are still very much in the containment phase of this novel infectious disease .
India has banned exports of Paracetamol so pharmacies are panic buying and the price is shooting up .
At this point , I have no idea how things will unfold but the chance of an 80 % population infection and one million deaths in the UK is pretty remote .
There will be infection and there will be death that ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the UK we had over 20,000 flu deaths and no one even seemed to notice .
In N. Ireland , 2,000 smoking-related deaths , 600 alcohol and drug-related deaths and 1,000 deaths from people being over-weigh and not taking enough exercise ; all preventable by alternations in behaviour .
Public Health Agency should reflect on this and how the public were influenced to quickly adopt safer behaviours .
Perhaps , if they could stop sensationalising the message , TV and radio health correspondents and shock-jocks have the answer .
Photo by ElisaRiva @ @ @ @ @

On TV News last week we learned that N. Ireland had its first victim of the new plague that is Covid-19. This novel coronavirus that started off life in a pangolin sold as an exotic food from a fish-market in Wuhan, China, had finally reached these shores on a Thursday night. I don’t think the media fully appreciate the sheer panic they unleased in a public, in its infinite ignorance, already very worried indeed.
A local radio host dedicated his fast pace morning radio programme to worrying deficiencies in our Public Health Agency (PHA). His claim that PHA’s helpline advice was dangerously incorrect regarding Covid-19 was at best banal but he had the air-waves. He asked how it could be that PHA was advising those just returned from Northern Italy, to “self-isolate” when that was “incorrect advice”. The correct advice was for the call-handler to tell them to telephone the GP who would then tell them to “self-isolate”. In the throes of a potentially serious plague this incompetence could cost lives, he intimated. Really?
So by Friday morning, with one person recently returned from an Italian ski-trip incarcerated in Belfast’s Royal Victoria Hospital, the public had moved from general interest in coronavirus to blind panic about Covid-19. Raising my pharmacy shutter at 9.00 am a group of twenty swamped the shop demanding hand-sanitizer. Staff, still with their coats on, had to reassure that handwashing was best in this the containment phase of the disease. Over 200 visits before lunch-time were asking for the same product. We had been out of hand sanitizers for a month following a visit from an assertive Chinese man who bought all I had before I had time to change the pricing labels. (Note to self; need to get better at profiteering).
So with little effort our media pundits had dramatically altered human behaviour. People were doing things to protect themselves from a perceived threat, a threat that was frankly close to zero. At that time it was almost impossible to catch Covid-19 locally short of sharing a handkerchief with the lady now imprisoned in our Health Service.
And off course the fear became more bizarre and extreme as the day went on. An elderly lady, not known for her intelligent insights, was, she told us, going to Mass to pray for the Pope who she was convinced already suffered from Covid-19 since, at morning prayers in Rome, he blew his nose many times into the Papal hanky. This, she added, was in addition to a plague of locusts eating all the crops in Africa all of which had been predicted in the Bible. At 4.30 pm with a few customers waiting for prescriptions, a gentleman in the queue sneezed three times sending a middle-aged woman running screaming from the pharmacy in horror.
Friday over, Saturday was no better. Supplies of antiseptic-solutions sold-out; never a bad thing in retail.
Writing this piece a week after notification of our first case some sort of calm has returned but behaviour remain changed. Hand-sanitizers we did get quickly sold in spite of a decent mark-up. The wholesale price of a single disposable face-mask on e-bay is now £1 the price of a 100 box last year. We are struggling to keep stocks of antiseptic solutions and wipes and yet we are still very much in the containment phase of this novel infectious disease. India has banned exports of Paracetamol so pharmacies are panic buying and the price is shooting up.
At this point, I have no idea how things will unfold but the chance of an 80% population infection and one million deaths in the UK is pretty remote. There will be infection and there will be death that’s how these things work. Last year in the UK we had over 20,000 flu deaths and no one even seemed to notice. In N. Ireland, 2,000 smoking-related deaths, 600 alcohol and drug-related deaths and 1,000 deaths from people being over-weigh and not taking enough exercise; all preventable by alternations in behaviour. Public Health Agency should reflect on this and how the public were influenced to quickly adopt safer behaviours. Perhaps, if they could stop sensationalising the message, TV and radio health correspondents and shock-jocks have the answer.
Photo by ElisaRiva is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA


sluggerotoole--2020-03-07--Guy Spence resigns from DUP and will retire from Belfast City Council at the end of March

A surprising announcement from Councillor Guy Spence this evening states that he resigned from the DUP on Friday afternoon and will step back from politics and retire from Belfast City Council at the end of March .
In his own words : Yesterday afternoon I submitted a letter to the Secretary of teh DUP indicating my resignation from the Party .
For the last year or more I have been wrestling with my conscience watching Party values and integrity be tossed aside often by personal agendas for individual gain .
I have lost all confidence in the Party , in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ within it untenable .
I have also written to the Chief Executive of Belfast City Council informing her that I will be retiring from Council at the end of this month , when I will be stepping back from politics to pursue a new career .
Until then I will be an Independent Member of Council .
My resignation and retirement has been accelerated by recent events involving a blatant attempt to cause me harm .
Something I ’ m not prepared to tolerate .
It has been a privilege to serve the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I call home , for the last nine years .
I want to thank every single person who supported me throughout my time in Council and everyone I ’ ve had the pleasure to work with .
Aged 19 , Spence was first elected to council in May 2011 , becoming Deputy Lord Mayor in 2015 .
Back in April 2015 during the election campaign , his car and home were pelted with eggs .
In early 2019 , his local party organisation selected former UUP MLA Fred Cobain as the DUP candidate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , though the central party subsequently added Spence to the ticket .

A surprising announcement from Councillor Guy Spence this evening states that he resigned from the DUP on Friday afternoon and will step back from politics and retire from Belfast City Council at the end of March.
In his own words:
Yesterday afternoon I submitted a letter to the Secretary of teh DUP indicating my resignation from the Party. For the last year or more I have been wrestling with my conscience watching Party values and integrity be tossed aside often by personal agendas for individual gain. I have lost all confidence in the Party, in particular its integrity, making my position within it untenable. I have also written to the Chief Executive of Belfast City Council informing her that I will be retiring from Council at the end of this month, when I will be stepping back from politics to pursue a new career. Until then I will be an Independent Member of Council. My resignation and retirement has been accelerated by recent events involving a blatant attempt to cause me harm. Something I’m not prepared to tolerate. It has been a privilege to serve the people of Castle District, the place I call home, for the last nine years. I want to thank every single person who supported me throughout my time in Council and everyone I’ve had the pleasure to work with.
Aged 19, Spence was first elected to council in May 2011, becoming Deputy Lord Mayor in 2015.
Back in April 2015 during the election campaign, his car and home were pelted with eggs.
In early 2019, his local party organisation selected former UUP MLA Fred Cobain as the DUP candidate for Castle ahead of the sitting councillor, though the central party subsequently added Spence to the ticket.
Yesterday I resigned from the DUP & at the end of this month I will retire from Belfast City Council. It has been a privilege to serve the people of my home District of Castle over the last nine years. Thanks to everyone who has supported me throughout my time in Council! pic.twitter.com/kvrAWRvHjk — Guy Spence (@GuySpence) March 7, 2020


sluggerotoole--2020-03-07--#NIElectionSurvey 3: Gap between border poll ‘story’ and the ‘data’ is much wider than advertised

The value of a survey over a snapshot poll is not just the array of detail it pulls in , but that it provides useful detail from those who regularly abstain from using their vote .
This is useful when considering the atypically high turnouts engendered by referendums .
For instance , the gap between voter turnout in the 1998 referendum on the Belfast Agreement and last December ’ s Westminster election was nearly 20 percentage points .
So non-participation in elections is unlikely to translate to a constitutional plebiscite .
The survey shows an awful lot of people have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ who might very well be persuaded to get out and vote if or when a starter pistol is fired .
And some of the most interesting material comes out of that nonvoter space .
Not least the fact that some 76.9 % of nonvoters prefer to remain in the UK ( and that is up by 3.7 % from the 2017 survey ) .
With a similar turnout to 1998 this survey indicates a comfortable majority for staying in the UK .
Nevertheless , those believe that Northern Ireland will eventually join the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 53.2 % of the 18-25 group don ’ t know .
This contrast between older certainty and a predominant uncertainty amongst youth is interesting .
It is matched with a small growth of unionist sentiment in the younger generation ( against the demographic trend ) and a larger fall amongst older groups .
Under the polarisation between 2010 and 2019 the union became more popular with Protestants ( up from 90.3 % to 94.5 % ) and less popular with Catholics ( down from 17.8 % to 13.6 % ) .
But overall @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the overall figures .
Interestingly when it comes to party support just 10 % of Sinn Fein voters and 20.2 % of those voting SDLP expressed a preference to stay in the United Kingdom .
In the case of supporters of the SDLP , this means a drop in support for the UK by -22.6 % .
The only party whose support significantly splits is Alliance : 58.8 % in favour of remaining , 25.6 % for a UI , ie close to the overall figure .
Despite an influx of voters @ @ @ @ @ @ @ comes to a 14.4 % increase in their pro-unionist support .
In the wider context , the report notes that since the 2010 Westminster election , nationalist parties ’ vote dropped by 4.3 % as the unionist proportion has risen by 2.1 % .
This is despite the fact that Unionist sentiment is hugely overrepresented in non-voters .
Sinn Fein ’ s abstentionism over Westminster may be having a marginally deadening effect on these figures .
If you look at the 2017 Assembly elections , even with the SF surge then the two @ @ @ @ @ @ @ half-point on their 2010 total .
So , in conclusion , it seems that there is a divergence between surveys like this and the Life and Times Survey and the various polls that have been run in the last few years .
One theory suggests the face to face method might create a barrier to honest disclosure .
However , there is no evidence of that in the survey ’ s depiction* of the election result , in which only one outcome was near a margin of error of 3 % ( as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ And it should be noted that no poll is ever completely accurate .
If this survey is accurate , political unionism , by charting a socially conservative route forward under the leadership of the DUP , is both massively under punching its own potential and projecting a weakness that underplays the actual popularity of the union .
As for nationalism , the survey indicates that talk that some sections of protestant society in Northern Ireland coming over to the idea of a united Ireland is not borne out by the small but negative @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Nationalism may have convinced itself and others that a united Ireland is closer than it was ( aided , no doubt , by the ongoing uncertainty of Brexit ) but there are very few signs that it is making any political headway in that regard , as yet .
That non-voter group has grown by nearly 10 percent in ten years .
That the majority of them are pro-union suggests while they are unimpressed by successive governments , they ’ ve not changed their minds on the constitutional question .
That ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ aspirational nationalists can afford to continue to ignore in the long term .
There is a large progressive vote in which unionism is losing to a growing post unionist segment of the population at an increasing pace .
Whilst , on the other hand , talking incessantly about the unification of the island may make it seem more likely to happen , but nationalism ’ s hands-off attitude to government means that nothing is actually being done to make it more likely .
*Originally I wrote predicted but the survey was conducted after @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Rie is licensed under CC0

The value of a survey over a snapshot poll is not just the array of detail it pulls in, but that it provides useful detail from those who regularly abstain from using their vote. This is useful when considering the atypically high turnouts engendered by referendums.
For instance, the gap between voter turnout in the 1998 referendum on the Belfast Agreement and last December’s Westminster election was nearly 20 percentage points. So non-participation in elections is unlikely to translate to a constitutional plebiscite.
The survey shows an awful lot of people have opted out of the current political system who might very well be persuaded to get out and vote if or when a starter pistol is fired. And some of the most interesting material comes out of that nonvoter space.
Not least the fact that some 76.9% of nonvoters prefer to remain in the UK (and that is up by 3.7% from the 2017 survey).
With a similar turnout to 1998 this survey indicates a comfortable majority for staying in the UK. Nevertheless, those believe that Northern Ireland will eventually join the Republic formed the largest group. Yet 53.2% of the 18-25 group don’t know.
This contrast between older certainty and a predominant uncertainty amongst youth is interesting. It is matched with a small growth of unionist sentiment in the younger generation (against the demographic trend) and a larger fall amongst older groups.
Under the polarisation between 2010 and 2019 the union became more popular with Protestants (up from 90.3% to 94.5%) and less popular with Catholics (down from 17.8% to 13.6%). But overall there’s not a huge change in the overall figures.
Interestingly when it comes to party support just 10% of Sinn Fein voters and 20.2% of those voting SDLP expressed a preference to stay in the United Kingdom. In the case of supporters of the SDLP, this means a drop in support for the UK by -22.6%.
The only party whose support significantly splits is Alliance: 58.8% in favour of remaining, 25.6% for a UI, ie close to the overall figure. Despite an influx of voters from both the DUP and SF this comes to a 14.4% increase in their pro-unionist support.
In the wider context, the report notes that since the 2010 Westminster election, nationalist parties’ vote dropped by 4.3% as the unionist proportion has risen by 2.1%. This is despite the fact that Unionist sentiment is hugely overrepresented in non-voters.
Sinn Fein’s abstentionism over Westminster may be having a marginally deadening effect on these figures. If you look at the 2017 Assembly elections, even with the SF surge then the two nationalist parties only gained less than a half-point on their 2010 total.
So, in conclusion, it seems that there is a divergence between surveys like this and the Life and Times Survey and the various polls that have been run in the last few years. One theory suggests the face to face method might create a barrier to honest disclosure.
However, there is no evidence of that in the survey’s depiction* of the election result, in which only one outcome was near a margin of error of 3% (as it understated the Alliance vote). And it should be noted that no poll is ever completely accurate.
If this survey is accurate, political unionism, by charting a socially conservative route forward under the leadership of the DUP, is both massively under punching its own potential and projecting a weakness that underplays the actual popularity of the union.
As for nationalism, the survey indicates that talk that some sections of protestant society in Northern Ireland coming over to the idea of a united Ireland is not borne out by the small but negative change in nationalism’s political fortunes.
Nationalism may have convinced itself and others that a united Ireland is closer than it was (aided, no doubt, by the ongoing uncertainty of Brexit) but there are very few signs that it is making any political headway in that regard, as yet.
That non-voter group has grown by nearly 10 percent in ten years. That the majority of them are pro-union suggests while they are unimpressed by successive governments, they’ve not changed their minds on the constitutional question.
That’s a problem that neither unionists nor aspirational nationalists can afford to continue to ignore in the long term. There is a large progressive vote in which unionism is losing to a growing post unionist segment of the population at an increasing pace.
Whilst, on the other hand, talking incessantly about the unification of the island may make it seem more likely to happen, but nationalism’s hands-off attitude to government means that nothing is actually being done to make it more likely.
*Originally I wrote predicted but the survey was conducted after the election date.
Photo by Pok Rie is licensed under CC0


sluggerotoole--2020-03-07--Alliance conference in party mood despite leader’s absence #APNI2020

Alliance delegates gathered again in the Stormont Hotel for their annual conference , marking the 50th anniversary of the party ’ s formation and celebrating a year of growing success at three successive elections ( local , European and Westminster ) .
The mood was upbeat , attendance was strong , yellow clothing was prevalent , and while there are no elections just around the corner to fire up the crowd , there was a sense of achievement and satisfaction at the party ’ s fortunes .
One indicator of an enthusiastic political conference is the death of the hotel @ @ @ @ @ @ @ east Belfast venue ’ s connectivity .
Party leader Naomi Long couldn ’ t attend and deliver her speech : “ diagnosed with a severe respiratory infection and [ … ] on bed rest and fluids under doctor ’ s orders ” .
The optics of wheezing through a speech in light of Covid-19 would have been appalling , and the difference between viral and bacterial infection would have been lost in the outrage .
Yet with the leader becoming such a vital element of the party ’ s brand and attractiveness to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the cloud was the useful reset for the party to pull together and make conference a joyful success without their beloved leader .
Party president Geraldine Mulvenna read out an apology and message of encouragement from East Antrim MLA Stewart Dickson who has been undergoing treatment for cancer and is back in hospital .
Also absent was another of the party ’ s veteran MLAs – “ he shall not be named ” – though his likely successor Sorcha Eastwood delivered a barnstorming speech , noting the demolition of Jeffrey Donaldson ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ emphasising her belief that “ Team Lagan Valley ” would return not one but two MLAs at the next Assembly election .
You can listen back to the two panels which filled the morning agenda : • Shaping our future with young councillors Rachael Ferguson , Sorcha Eastwood , Danny Donnelly , Eóin Tennyson and chaired by Andrew Muir .
Recently elected North Down MP and deputy leader delivered the main speech , walking up to the stage to strains of ( Naomi ’ s song ) Something Good Can Work by Two @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s “ recipe for success ” as down to the quickly changing society , the party ’ s coherent and consistent policy on Brexit , and community frustrations around the politics of deadlock and delay .
He also outlined three immediate challenges emerge from New Decade , New Approach deal : • sufficient reforms to the Petition of Concern ; • reflecting the changing nature of our society in the Stormont institutions ; and You can read and listen back to the full speech below .
After lunch , the former Secretary @ @ @ @ @ @ @ video to thank the Alliance Party for their contribution to the recent talks process .
PSNI Chief Constable Simon Byrne took to the stage and explained that “ this as the best job I ’ ve ever had ” .
He recalled waking up at 2.30am on the morning of his interview for the top post with the image of a seesaw out of balance in his head .
He could see big issues weighing it down , soaking up time of people he talked to : legacy , the fight against serious @ @ @ @ @ @ @ demonstrations .
These preoccupying issues were getting in the way of what was changing in Northern Ireland and he saw little evidence of finding ways to answer the phone faster , being more visible in communities , quickly turning up at crime scenes and incidents .
It was time for the PSNI to rebalance the seesaw .
He outlined three pillars of his reform programme : • A force of 7500 officers to recognised the “ clamour and recognition for community policing ” , more visible and more responsive ; • A modernised @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Byrne is the “ proud owner of 185 portacabins ” and a 200-year-old building in Enniskillen that ’ s sinking into the ground .
He ’ d like to see improved conditions for officers , a campus style headquarters on the outskirts of Belfast that could consolidate specialist teams , a new Police College , and fewer austere police stations through demilitarisation .
• Characterising the force ’ s IT infrastructure , particularly the mobile technology used by front life staff , as slow and outdated , Byrne is pushing for a Digital @ @ @ @ @ @ @ away from 19th century processes into more efficient ways of working .
The Chief Constable discussed the effect of Brexit on policing in Northern Ireland .
The loss of the European Arrest Warrant would necessitate falling back to 1957 legislation , though he ’ d prefer to see parity or an improvement to the existing provision .
He finished by reiterating his three key promises : • we care about the communities we police , we care about our partners , and we care about the aspirations of our workforce ’ • we @ @ @ @ @ @ @ our workforce ; • we should be defined by how we act to protect the communities we serve and improve the conditions of staff .
The conference finished with a panel discussing diversity and cohesion .
First of all , you ’ ll have noticed I ’ m not Naomi Long !
… But I ’ m sure she ’ s tuning in and watching with huge interest and making sure I don ’ t say anything I shouldn ’ t be saying .
But I do want to pay tribute to all @ @ @ @ @ @ @ months and years to get the party to where it is today .
This is of course our 50th Anniversary Conference .
And rightly , we will look back and reflect over the past half century with pride .
At the same time , we come together at a time of unprecedented success and influence for Alliance .
It is great to see many of the founding generation of the party with us here today , people such as Briege Napier , Jim Hendron , Dennis Loreto and the Glendinnings .
We will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ formally at an event during April .
Our founders would be delighted at the current success of Alliance , and it is of course built on the foundations that they laid .
Indeed , for a brief few weeks at the end of January , we simultaneously had representation in Local Government , in the devolved Assembly , at Westminster , at the European Parliament , plus a seat in government .
So we meet on the back of our most successful electoral year…to date .
Our success in the Local Government Elections @ @ @ @ @ @ @ incredible 53 councillors from a pre-existing base in the low 30s .
And still with a few more votes in the right places , we could have won even more .
We are now players in councils right across Northern Ireland .
But as it turned out , the Council elections were just the warm-up act for the Alliance surge to take Naomi all the way to Brussels and Strasbourg with a quite stunning result with an impact well beyond our shores .
And in the General Election , our vote went up @ @ @ @ @ @ @ spectacular increases in many constituencies .
I previously described Alliance as the fifth party in a four-party system .
But now we have made the historic breakthrough to be the third party in terms of the share of the vote .
And of course , I am delighted to be here before you as Alliance ’ s second ever elected Member of Parliament .
It was especially poignant to win North Down during the 50th anniversary year as the party ’ s founding document was signed in Bangor .
I want to also @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on record my thanks to my election team so ably led by my election agent and successor Andrew Muir .
And Andrew has literally hit the ground running as an MLA in our Assembly group .
People are often asking what was the recipe for Alliance ’ s success ?
For starters , Northern Ireland is a changing society , and changing more quickly than many appreciate .
More and more people are moving away from traditional labels , and expressing open , mixed and multiple identities .
Second , we called Brexit @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have been coherent and consistent throughout .
We have clearly articulated and defended Northern Ireland ’ s interests .
Thirdly , we have channelled frustrations around the politics of deadlock and delay , and channelled that desire to see change , reform and delivery .
Success has bred even further success .
And the old canard that a vote for Alliance is a wasted vote has been consigned to the dustbin of history .
We have proven that we can win anywhere in Northern Ireland and we are drawing our votes from right @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that in a political context usually framed around the constitutional question and a clash of identities that a liberal and cross community party can not only survive but flourish .
But Conference , while we have broken that particular glass ceiling , there can be no room for complacency or sitting back on our laurels .
We must press on to new heights .
And we must recognise that we gather at a time of unprecedented challenges for Northern Ireland , combined with uncertainty within these islands , across Europe and around the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ escaping from Brexit .
Though apparently , the word Brexit has been banned in Downing Street and across government , except to references in an historical context .
However , Brexit is set to dominate the political and economic and security context for at least the next decade .
We were proud Remainers and we remain passionate Europeans today and into the future .
The European Union is central to shared peace and prosperity across the continent .
And it provides the framework to better address common challenges such as international development , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ our own situation , Northern Ireland only works on the basis of sharing and interdependence .
That was assisted by close cooperation between the British and Irish Governments , and the joint participation in the Single Market and a Customs Union that dissolved borders .
We should look forward to and aspire to Northern Ireland rejoining the EU sooner rather than later .
But for now , Boris Johnson is set to pursue a reckless hard Brexit .
The Brexit extremists exhibit the characteristics of revolutionaries , in this case fuelled by a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Dissenting voices are labelled as enemies of the people .
Like most revolutions , it will at some point run out of steam and destroy itself , but for now a collision course has been set with the European Union with an irresponsible and unworkable prospectus for a future relationship .
The UK is turning its back on its biggest and most important neighbour for the pipe dream of a global Britain , all the time failing to acknowledge that it is through the EU that the UK can best project soft @ @ @ @ @ @ @ without selling off the NHS or betraying our farmers and agrifood sector .
And not undermining employment rights or putting our environment further at risk .
But it gets even worse , this government seems determined to sacrifice international human rights standards , and can ’ t even commit to upholding the European Convention on Human Rights , something that is so central to our Good Friday Agreement .
And most immediately , the Government is playing fast and loose with the Northern Ireland/Ireland Protocol .
Boris Johnson is failing to recognise the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ already signed up to .
This is a tendency that is also infecting some of our own local Ministers .
We are not fans of the Protocol .
We don ’ t want to see any borders and friction anywhere in these islands .
Northern Ireland depends on integrated supply chains and sales networks both north-south and east-west .
We preferred May ’ s Deal with its backstop .
The Johnson Deal is a harder Brexit and the Protocol is now the front stop .
But the Protocol is part of the Withdrawal @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not only undermines the UK ’ s ability to negotiate Free Trade Agreements but also risks leaving Northern Ireland in a ‘ No Man ’ s Land ’ , with the Good Friday Agreement undermined and a renewed risk of a hard border on this island .
It is not in our interests to have a cowboy economy .
We are a mature , rules-based , and globally-integrated economy .
Business needs certainty now and into the future .
The Protocol does brings us challenges .
But we must be in the place @ @ @ @ @ @ @ than evading responsibilities .
And that sharp distinction must be understood .
And with mutual trust , potentially we could build on a protocol and protect services and freedom of movement and enhance the all-island economy .
Pending the revolution eventually eating itself or a wider reconsideration of Brexit itself , there is no alternative but making this Protocol now work as well as possible for the good of Northern Ireland .
And on the theme of making Northern Ireland work , we now have the New Decade , New Approach document .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ with both Governments over the past few months and beyond , I do want to place on record our thanks to both Julian Smith and Simon Coveney and their teams for getting us to this point .
Conference , let ’ s be clear , Northern Ireland should not have had over 1,000 days of uncertainty .
Huge damage was caused to our public services and economic drivers during that period , alongside the unknown missed opportunities that will have passed us by .
And we should recall that prior exercises of devolved @ @ @ @ @ @ @ good governance , coherence , strategic vision and delivery .
Obviously more of that at the end of next week .
New Decade is not perfect solution .
We are no illusion around its flaws and limitations , but coming from where we have been , it is a necessary starting point .
It is far from the summit of our ambitions .
For us , the central objective remains building reconciliation and creating an integrated society .
Three immediate challenges emerge from New Decade .
First , the reforms to the Petition @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and if they are insufficient the Government must go further .
This is essential for delivering a fair , equal and rights-based society .
Second , the changing nature of our society must be reflected in our institutions .
It is long past time that the designation system in the Assembly and the associated voting system were changed .
Third , we must address the situation facing Northern Ireland ’ s public finances .
And indeed some important weeks lie ahead .
Let ’ s be clear , the current situation is both @ @ @ @ @ @ @ austerity and local mismanagement and waste of public funds .
Therefore , the devolved institutions both need to pitch for additional resources for Northern Ireland , while not only promising but demonstrating the ability to deliver meaningful reforms .
We should continue to press the UK Government for further assistance based on our legacy of division and violence , and the pressures that flow from that .
But we shouldn ’ t be afraid of our feet being held to the fire on reform .
Alliance has been clear and consistent in highlighting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from a divided society , while calling for this to be addressed with resources redirected into public services .
Others are now sharing this narrative , but the challenge falls to the Executive to turn this into reality .
No one involved in politics or within their community can be under any doubt of the enormity of the challenge facing our health service .
Accident and Emergency facilities are often at breaking point , waiting lists are beyond belief , GPs are far too stretched and our staff in the health service are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ missing out on new drugs , treatments and technologies that are available elsewhere in these islands .
Meanwhile our mental health challenge gets ever deeper , with a particularly serious challenge around suicide prevention .
And on top of all of that , it must now also address the yet uncertain impact of the Coronavirus .
This society can ’ t carry on this way for any longer .
The Bengoa reforms need to be delivered .
And also in Education , we also need some Bengoa-style reforms .
And our new chair @ @ @ @ @ @ @ been calling for those for many years .
Alliance is proud to have played the central role in securing commitments in New Decade to that comprehensive top to bottom review .
While our education is world class in many respects , there remain challenges of inequalities and underachievement .
Not enough is being done to prepare young people for the world of work .
Too many young people are still educated separately , missing out on invaluable educational and life experiences .
And once again an inefficient and ineffective system prevents enough money @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , in addressing special educational needs , and investing in teachers .
The goal must be to have children educated together in the same classroom .
Of course , Alliance is now back in Government .
This was not a straightforward decision , but it was right thing to do .
This is a time for everyone to step up and to take responsibility .
We are delighted that Naomi has taken over the role as Justice Minister .
She will be work closely with all of the Justice stakeholders , including the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ later .
And it is right that we pay tribute to the officers of the PSNI and all other actors in our criminal justice system who work on behalf of this society and the rule of law , while under ongoing threat and danger .
Naomi has a busy in-tray .
She will be bringing forward a domestic abuse bill before the Easter recess .
For the first time this will close an important gap for victims of domestic abuse , introducing an offence to cover emotional or coercive behaviour .
An advocacy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sexual violence and abuse will also be created in order to provide a more coordinated and tailored response to their needs .
She will also implement key Gillen recommendations which also have the potential to transform the experience of vulnerable complainants , for example by avoiding retraumatisation in repeatedly having to give evidence .
An important theme was the need to speed up justice , which has much wider impacts on the entire criminal justice system .
This is why she will introduce a Committal Reform Bill to streamline the committal process and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Naomi has met with victims of stalking who have been failed by the gap in the current law .
This is why a Stalking Bill will be introduced in the Autumn , and will also provide a more effective and appropriate legislative framework to protect victims .
We will also be introducing a range of measures to tackle paramilitarism and organised crime by the end of the year , including enacting the Criminal Finance Act .
And she will continue to lead a cross-departmental approach to stamp out paramilitary control of communities , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the entire justice system by creating safe , shared communities .
So we need Naomi back on her feet sooner rather than later !
We are committed to making devolution work .
There is no other sustainable way to govern this region than power-sharing .
But Alliance is conscious of calls for wider change across these islands .
We recognise that Brexit and other factors have energised the debate around the constitutional question .
Given the nature of Alliance , some may suggest that this would be a particular challenge .
But @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in which we can engage with confidence .
Alliance is not a party that is defined by the constitutional question .
We are not an amalgamation of unionists and nationalists in some uneasy co-existence .
Rather we are a proud cross-community party , self-confident in our identity .
And while there may be some members who prefer the Union , and some who prefer a United Ireland , and indeed many who are open to persuasion , we are not only united , but defined , by our shared commitment to make this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to build a better future .
Wherever lines are drawn on maps , these will remain the core challenges for this place , and in turn the spirit of partnership and co-operation across these islands , built on the Good Friday Agreement , must be preserved and indeed enhanced .
We don ’ t believe that there is currently the case for a border poll , and nor are we pursuing one , but we do recognise that there is a very fluid situation and multiple active debates are underway .
So Conference @ @ @ @ @ @ @ without prejudice to any outcome , engage in civilised , rational and evidence-based discussions .
And in all respects , we will be guided by our vision and values and always advocate what we think is best for Northern Ireland .
Still , there are other uncertainties in the decades ahead with which we must engage .
Across Europe and in many parts of the world , the traditional rules-based international order is coming under more and more stress .
We are seeing the rise of populism and nasty , exclusionary manifestations of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ traits we ’ re now weeing here within Boris Johnson ’ s United Kingdom .
We see this with the hostile environment , the abuse of the Windrush generation and the undermining of human rights standards .
In particular , we reject the looming Immigration Bill .
Immigration and specifically freedom of movement have not only provided great assistance to our economy but enriched our society .
There is a false choice presented between developing our local skills base and being open to the rest of the world .
We must do both @ @ @ @ @ @ @ legislation to recognise our specific economic circumstances of Northern Ireland , we are opposed to these proposals as a matter of principle .
All of this is put in context by the current climate emergency .
This is set to be the greatest and global challenge facing us all .
We should be inspired by the leadership demonstrated particularly by many young people .
A pan-society and pan-governmental approach will be required , and some difficult decisions and choices lie ahead .
Great ingenuity and innovation will also be required .
And through @ @ @ @ @ @ @ opportunities do lie ahead .
We are determined to provide strong leadership , and to ensure that the burdens of change are shared fairly and equitably .
So Conference , as Alliance enters its second half-century , we do so with confidence and pride .
We have played a crucial and constructive role in transforming Northern Ireland .
But there is much more to do .
The next few years are set to a roller coaster , but through our vision and values , we will be instrumental in steering this society to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ you very much .

Alliance delegates gathered again in the Stormont Hotel for their annual conference, marking the 50th anniversary of the party’s formation and celebrating a year of growing success at three successive elections (local, European and Westminster).
The mood was upbeat, attendance was strong, yellow clothing was prevalent, and while there are no elections just around the corner to fire up the crowd, there was a sense of achievement and satisfaction at the party’s fortunes.
One indicator of an enthusiastic political conference is the death of the hotel wi-fi, and Alliance certainly stretched the east Belfast venue’s connectivity.
Three figures were notably absent.
Party leader Naomi Long couldn’t attend and deliver her speech: “diagnosed with a severe respiratory infection and […] on bed rest and fluids under doctor’s orders”. The optics of wheezing through a speech in light of Covid-19 would have been appalling, and the difference between viral and bacterial infection would have been lost in the outrage. Yet with the leader becoming such a vital element of the party’s brand and attractiveness to new voters, the silver lining on the cloud was the useful reset for the party to pull together and make conference a joyful success without their beloved leader.
Party president Geraldine Mulvenna read out an apology and message of encouragement from East Antrim MLA Stewart Dickson who has been undergoing treatment for cancer and is back in hospital.
Also absent was another of the party’s veteran MLAs – “he shall not be named” – though his likely successor Sorcha Eastwood delivered a barnstorming speech, noting the demolition of Jeffrey Donaldson’s Westminster majority from 17,229 to 6,499 and emphasising her belief that “Team Lagan Valley” would return not one but two MLAs at the next Assembly election.
You can listen back to the two panels which filled the morning agenda:
Educational reform with Prof Bob Salisbury (Salisbury Review), Maddie Bridgeman (Integrated Education Fund), Gerry Campbell (CCMS), Ruth Leitch (QUB), chaired by Chris Lyttle.
with Prof Bob Salisbury (Salisbury Review), Maddie Bridgeman (Integrated Education Fund), Gerry Campbell (CCMS), Ruth Leitch (QUB), chaired by Chris Lyttle. Shaping our future with young councillors Rachael Ferguson, Sorcha Eastwood, Danny Donnelly, Eóin Tennyson and chaired by Andrew Muir.
Recently elected North Down MP and deputy leader delivered the main speech, walking up to the stage to strains of (Naomi’s song) Something Good Can Work by Two Door Cinema Club.
Farry characterised Alliance’s “recipe for success” as down to the quickly changing society, the party’s coherent and consistent policy on Brexit, and community frustrations around the politics of deadlock and delay.
He also outlined three immediate challenges emerge from New Decade, New Approach deal:
sufficient reforms to the Petition of Concern;
reflecting the changing nature of our society in the Stormont institutions; and
addressing Northern Ireland’s public finances.
You can read and listen back to the full speech below.
After lunch, the former Secretary of State Julian Smith dropped in by video to thank the Alliance Party for their contribution to the recent talks process.
“We did the deal in January, all of us, we took a positive decision for the future of Northern Ireland but there is so much work to do and there is an opportunity for Alliance with its founding principles to continue to draw together the two extremes of Northern Ireland.”
PSNI Chief Constable Simon Byrne took to the stage and explained that “this as the best job I’ve ever had”. He recalled waking up at 2.30am on the morning of his interview for the top post with the image of a seesaw out of balance in his head. He could see big issues weighing it down, soaking up time of people he talked to: legacy, the fight against serious terrorism, and policing big parades and demonstrations. These preoccupying issues were getting in the way of what was changing in Northern Ireland and he saw little evidence of finding ways to answer the phone faster, being more visible in communities, quickly turning up at crime scenes and incidents. It was time for the PSNI to rebalance the seesaw.
He outlined three pillars of his reform programme:
A force of 7500 officers to recognised the “clamour and recognition for community policing”, more visible and more responsive;
to recognised the “clamour and recognition for community policing”, more visible and more responsive; A modernised police estate . As Accounting Officer, Byrne is the “proud owner of 185 portacabins” and a 200-year-old building in Enniskillen that’s sinking into the ground. He’d like to see improved conditions for officers, a campus style headquarters on the outskirts of Belfast that could consolidate specialist teams, a new Police College, and fewer austere police stations through demilitarisation.
. As Accounting Officer, Byrne is the “proud owner of 185 portacabins” and a 200-year-old building in Enniskillen that’s sinking into the ground. He’d like to see improved conditions for officers, a campus style headquarters on the outskirts of Belfast that could consolidate specialist teams, a new Police College, and fewer austere police stations through demilitarisation. Characterising the force’s IT infrastructure, particularly the mobile technology used by front life staff, as slow and outdated, Byrne is pushing for a Digital PSNI transformation to enable officers to shift away from 19th century processes into more efficient ways of working.
The Chief Constable discussed the effect of Brexit on policing in Northern Ireland. The loss of the European Arrest Warrant would necessitate falling back to 1957 legislation, though he’d prefer to see parity or an improvement to the existing provision.
He finished by reiterating his three key promises:
we care about the communities we police, we care about our partners, and we care about the aspirations of our workforce’
about the communities we police, we care about our partners, and we care about the aspirations of our workforce’ we listen to you, our partners and our workforce;
to you, our partners and our workforce; we should be defined by how we act to protect the communities we serve and improve the conditions of staff.
The conference finished with a panel discussing diversity and cohesion.
– – –
Stephen Farry’s speech in full:
First of all, you’ll have noticed I’m not Naomi Long! … But I’m sure she’s tuning in and watching with huge interest and making sure I don’t say anything I shouldn’t be saying. But I do want to pay tribute to all she’s done over the past months and years to get the party to where it is today.
This is of course our 50th Anniversary Conference. And rightly, we will look back and reflect over the past half century with pride. At the same time, we come together at a time of unprecedented success and influence for Alliance.
It is great to see many of the founding generation of the party with us here today, people such as Briege Napier, Jim Hendron, Dennis Loreto and the Glendinnings. We will be marking the 50th anniversary much more formally at an event during April. Our founders would be delighted at the current success of Alliance, and it is of course built on the foundations that they laid.
Indeed, for a brief few weeks at the end of January, we simultaneously had representation in Local Government, in the devolved Assembly, at Westminster, at the European Parliament, plus a seat in government.
So we meet on the back of our most successful electoral year…to date.
Our success in the Local Government Elections exceeded our wildest expectations, with an incredible 53 councillors from a pre-existing base in the low 30s. And still with a few more votes in the right places, we could have won even more. We are now players in councils right across Northern Ireland.
But as it turned out, the Council elections were just the warm-up act for the Alliance surge to take Naomi all the way to Brussels and Strasbourg with a quite stunning result with an impact well beyond our shores.
And in the General Election, our vote went up right across the board, with some spectacular increases in many constituencies. I previously described Alliance as the fifth party in a four-party system. But now we have made the historic breakthrough to be the third party in terms of the share of the vote.
And of course, I am delighted to be here before you as Alliance’s second ever elected Member of Parliament. It was especially poignant to win North Down during the 50th anniversary year as the party’s founding document was signed in Bangor.
I want to also take this opportunity to once again put on record my thanks to my election team so ably led by my election agent and successor Andrew Muir. And Andrew has literally hit the ground running as an MLA in our Assembly group.
People are often asking what was the recipe for Alliance’s success? For starters, Northern Ireland is a changing society, and changing more quickly than many appreciate. More and more people are moving away from traditional labels, and expressing open, mixed and multiple identities.
Second, we called Brexit right from the very start, and have been coherent and consistent throughout. We have clearly articulated and defended Northern Ireland’s interests.
Thirdly, we have channelled frustrations around the politics of deadlock and delay, and channelled that desire to see change, reform and delivery. Success has bred even further success. And the old canard that a vote for Alliance is a wasted vote has been consigned to the dustbin of history.
We have proven that we can win anywhere in Northern Ireland and we are drawing our votes from right across the community. We have proven that in a political context usually framed around the constitutional question and a clash of identities that a liberal and cross community party can not only survive but flourish.
But Conference, while we have broken that particular glass ceiling, there can be no room for complacency or sitting back on our laurels. We must press on to new heights. And we must recognise that we gather at a time of unprecedented challenges for Northern Ireland, combined with uncertainty within these islands, across Europe and around the globe.
So, there is no escaping from Brexit. Though apparently, the word Brexit has been banned in Downing Street and across government, except to references in an historical context. However, Brexit is set to dominate the political and economic and security context for at least the next decade. We were proud Remainers and we remain passionate Europeans today and into the future.
The European Union is central to shared peace and prosperity across the continent. And it provides the framework to better address common challenges such as international development, migration and climate change.
Coming to our own situation, Northern Ireland only works on the basis of sharing and interdependence. That was assisted by close cooperation between the British and Irish Governments, and the joint participation in the Single Market and a Customs Union that dissolved borders.
We should look forward to and aspire to Northern Ireland rejoining the EU sooner rather than later. But for now, Boris Johnson is set to pursue a reckless hard Brexit. The Brexit extremists exhibit the characteristics of revolutionaries, in this case fuelled by a libertarian ideology and wishful, delusional thinking. Dissenting voices are labelled as enemies of the people.
Like most revolutions, it will at some point run out of steam and destroy itself, but for now a collision course has been set with the European Union with an irresponsible and unworkable prospectus for a future relationship.
The UK is turning its back on its biggest and most important neighbour for the pipe dream of a global Britain, all the time failing to acknowledge that it is through the EU that the UK can best project soft power and expand international trade. And without selling off the NHS or betraying our farmers and agrifood sector. And not undermining employment rights or putting our environment further at risk.
But it gets even worse, this government seems determined to sacrifice international human rights standards, and can’t even commit to upholding the European Convention on Human Rights, something that is so central to our Good Friday Agreement. And most immediately, the Government is playing fast and loose with the Northern Ireland/Ireland Protocol.
Boris Johnson is failing to recognise the realities that flow from what it has already signed up to. This is a tendency that is also infecting some of our own local Ministers. We are not fans of the Protocol. We don’t want to see any borders and friction anywhere in these islands. Northern Ireland depends on integrated supply chains and sales networks both north-south and east-west.
We preferred May’s Deal with its backstop. The Johnson Deal is a harder Brexit and the Protocol is now the front stop. But the Protocol is part of the Withdrawal Agreement, and failure to implement it not only undermines the UK’s ability to negotiate Free Trade Agreements but also risks leaving Northern Ireland in a ‘No Man’s Land’, with the Good Friday Agreement undermined and a renewed risk of a hard border on this island.
It is not in our interests to have a cowboy economy. We are a mature, rules-based, and globally-integrated economy. Business needs certainty now and into the future. The Protocol does brings us challenges. But we must be in the place of seeking mitigations and flexibilities, rather than evading responsibilities. And that sharp distinction must be understood.
And with mutual trust, potentially we could build on a protocol and protect services and freedom of movement and enhance the all-island economy.
Pending the revolution eventually eating itself or a wider reconsideration of Brexit itself, there is no alternative but making this Protocol now work as well as possible for the good of Northern Ireland.
And on the theme of making Northern Ireland work, we now have the New Decade, New Approach document. While we have had some robust engagements with both Governments over the past few months and beyond, I do want to place on record our thanks to both Julian Smith and Simon Coveney and their teams for getting us to this point.
Conference, let’s be clear, Northern Ireland should not have had over 1,000 days of uncertainty. Huge damage was caused to our public services and economic drivers during that period, alongside the unknown missed opportunities that will have passed us by.
And we should recall that prior exercises of devolved government were lacking in many aspects of good governance, coherence, strategic vision and delivery. Obviously more of that at the end of next week.
New Decade is not perfect solution. We are no illusion around its flaws and limitations, but coming from where we have been, it is a necessary starting point. It is far from the summit of our ambitions. For us, the central objective remains building reconciliation and creating an integrated society.
Three immediate challenges emerge from New Decade.
First, the reforms to the Petition of Concern need to be delivered, and if they are insufficient the Government must go further. This is essential for delivering a fair, equal and rights-based society.
Second, the changing nature of our society must be reflected in our institutions. It is long past time that the designation system in the Assembly and the associated voting system were changed.
Third, we must address the situation facing Northern Ireland’s public finances. And indeed some important weeks lie ahead. Let’s be clear, the current situation is both the product of a decade of UK austerity and local mismanagement and waste of public funds. Therefore, the devolved institutions both need to pitch for additional resources for Northern Ireland, while not only promising but demonstrating the ability to deliver meaningful reforms.
We should continue to press the UK Government for further assistance based on our legacy of division and violence, and the pressures that flow from that. But we shouldn’t be afraid of our feet being held to the fire on reform.
Alliance has been clear and consistent in highlighting the considerable distortions to our public finances from a divided society, while calling for this to be addressed with resources redirected into public services. Others are now sharing this narrative, but the challenge falls to the Executive to turn this into reality.
No one involved in politics or within their community can be under any doubt of the enormity of the challenge facing our health service. Accident and Emergency facilities are often at breaking point, waiting lists are beyond belief, GPs are far too stretched and our staff in the health service are undervalued and underappreciated.
Northern Ireland is missing out on new drugs, treatments and technologies that are available elsewhere in these islands. Meanwhile our mental health challenge gets ever deeper, with a particularly serious challenge around suicide prevention. And on top of all of that, it must now also address the yet uncertain impact of the Coronavirus. This society can’t carry on this way for any longer. The Bengoa reforms need to be delivered.
And also in Education, we also need some Bengoa-style reforms. And our new chair of the Education Committee Chirs Lyttle has been calling for those for many years. Alliance is proud to have played the central role in securing commitments in New Decade to that comprehensive top to bottom review. While our education is world class in many respects, there remain challenges of inequalities and underachievement. Not enough is being done to prepare young people for the world of work.
Too many young people are still educated separately, missing out on invaluable educational and life experiences. And once again an inefficient and ineffective system prevents enough money from being invested in the front line, in addressing special educational needs, and investing in teachers. The goal must be to have children educated together in the same classroom.
Of course, Alliance is now back in Government. This was not a straightforward decision, but it was right thing to do. This is a time for everyone to step up and to take responsibility. We are delighted that Naomi has taken over the role as Justice Minister. She will be work closely with all of the Justice stakeholders, including the Chief Constable from whom we will here later. And it is right that we pay tribute to the officers of the PSNI and all other actors in our criminal justice system who work on behalf of this society and the rule of law, while under ongoing threat and danger.
Naomi has a busy in-tray. She will be bringing forward a domestic abuse bill before the Easter recess. For the first time this will close an important gap for victims of domestic abuse, introducing an offence to cover emotional or coercive behaviour.
An advocacy support service for victims of domestic and sexual violence and abuse will also be created in order to provide a more coordinated and tailored response to their needs. She will also implement key Gillen recommendations which also have the potential to transform the experience of vulnerable complainants, for example by avoiding retraumatisation in repeatedly having to give evidence.
An important theme was the need to speed up justice, which has much wider impacts on the entire criminal justice system. This is why she will introduce a Committal Reform Bill to streamline the committal process and help tackle delay in the system.
Naomi has met with victims of stalking who have been failed by the gap in the current law. This is why a Stalking Bill will be introduced in the Autumn, and will also provide a more effective and appropriate legislative framework to protect victims. We will also be introducing a range of measures to tackle paramilitarism and organised crime by the end of the year, including enacting the Criminal Finance Act.
And she will continue to lead a cross-departmental approach to stamp out paramilitary control of communities, building a culture of lawfulness and confidence in the entire justice system by creating safe, shared communities. So we need Naomi back on her feet sooner rather than later!
We are committed to making devolution work. There is no other sustainable way to govern this region than power-sharing.
But Alliance is conscious of calls for wider change across these islands. We recognise that Brexit and other factors have energised the debate around the constitutional question. Given the nature of Alliance, some may suggest that this would be a particular challenge. But on the contrary, these are debates in which we can engage with confidence.
Alliance is not a party that is defined by the constitutional question. We are not an amalgamation of unionists and nationalists in some uneasy co-existence. Rather we are a proud cross-community party, self-confident in our identity. And while there may be some members who prefer the Union, and some who prefer a United Ireland, and indeed many who are open to persuasion, we are not only united, but defined, by our shared commitment to make this society work, to overcome division and to build a better future.
Wherever lines are drawn on maps, these will remain the core challenges for this place, and in turn the spirit of partnership and co-operation across these islands, built on the Good Friday Agreement, must be preserved and indeed enhanced. We don’t believe that there is currently the case for a border poll, and nor are we pursuing one, but we do recognise that there is a very fluid situation and multiple active debates are underway.
So Conference, we can with confidence, and without prejudice to any outcome, engage in civilised, rational and evidence-based discussions. And in all respects, we will be guided by our vision and values and always advocate what we think is best for Northern Ireland.
Still, there are other uncertainties in the decades ahead with which we must engage. Across Europe and in many parts of the world, the traditional rules-based international order is coming under more and more stress.
We are seeing the rise of populism and nasty, exclusionary manifestations of nationalism. Sadly, many of these traits we’re now weeing here within Boris Johnson’s United Kingdom. We see this with the hostile environment, the abuse of the Windrush generation and the undermining of human rights standards.
In particular, we reject the looming Immigration Bill. Immigration and specifically freedom of movement have not only provided great assistance to our economy but enriched our society.
There is a false choice presented between developing our local skills base and being open to the rest of the world. We must do both. So beyond seeking mitigations from that legislation to recognise our specific economic circumstances of Northern Ireland, we are opposed to these proposals as a matter of principle.
All of this is put in context by the current climate emergency. This is set to be the greatest and global challenge facing us all. We should be inspired by the leadership demonstrated particularly by many young people.
A pan-society and pan-governmental approach will be required, and some difficult decisions and choices lie ahead. Great ingenuity and innovation will also be required. And through a Green New Deal, new economic opportunities do lie ahead.
We are determined to provide strong leadership, and to ensure that the burdens of change are shared fairly and equitably.
So Conference, as Alliance enters its second half-century, we do so with confidence and pride. We have played a crucial and constructive role in transforming Northern Ireland. But there is much more to do.
The next few years are set to a roller coaster, but through our vision and values, we will be instrumental in steering this society to a secure and better future.
Thank you very much.


sluggerotoole--2020-03-08--International Women’s Day #IWD2020

International Women’s Day #IWD2020

The Equality Commission together with the Commissioner for Public Appointments for NI and WRDA/Reclaim the Agenda hosted an event for @ @ @ @ @ on Thursday .
Three women described their journey into positions of leadership , with a @ @ @ @ @ • Still in her first week as Chief Commissioner of the Equality Commission , Geraldine @ @ @ @ @ of leadership positions and the uncertainty in her abilities that she had to overcome .
@ @ @ @ @ Communities Minister , spoke about how long it took her to be persuaded to stand @ @ @ @ @ what went through her mind when Michelle O ’ Neill phoned to ask her to @ @ @ @ @ .
• As well as outlining her own career in the civil service , Judena @ @ @ @ @ Public Appointments NI , outlined the gender balance of boards and amongst chairs of boards @ @ @ @

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sluggerotoole--2020-03-09--Best we can do with #Covid19 is to flatten the curve of infections…

This is by far the best explainer of what we have to do as communities , societies , individuals , and families ( # HatTip Damian Fogarty ) that I ’ ve seen yet : It ’ s from a New Zealand site called Spin-Off , which has a longer explanation of the three phases of the virus here , but from a crisis management point of view this is very much the key bit : Our aim will be to keep phase two of the epidemic curve as flat as possible , keeping the number of cases reported each @ @ @ @ @ @ @ If we can achieve that , it ’ ll mean we ’ ll be able to treat everyone who needs treating .
We can all help with this by washing our hands regularly , avoiding touching our mouth , nose , and eyes , and staying away from other people when we are sick .
This also means calling ahead if you feel sick and want to go to the doctor or hospital .
The last thing we need is loads of our healthcare workers in isolation because they ’ ve been exposed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that this is not just down to government departments and politicians ( although this is where the final burden will fall ) , but to us individually to slow the spread as much as is humanly possible .
Whilst I ’ m on , McKinsey has a decent three scenario outlook on the effects of the virus on the global economy ( I think we might be already well past number one ) “ Novel Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 ” by NIAID is licensed under CC BY

This is by far the best explainer of what we have to do as communities, societies, individuals, and families (#HatTip Damian Fogarty) that I’ve seen yet:
How to play your part minimising the impact of Covid-19, in one simple gif, thanks to @XTOTL & @SiouxsieW https://t.co/s2331Up39n pic.twitter.com/IDqnxAs5z5 — The Spinoff (@TheSpinoffTV) March 8, 2020
It’s from a New Zealand site called Spin-Off, which has a longer explanation of the three phases of the virus here, but from a crisis management point of view this is very much the key bit:
Our aim will be to keep phase two of the epidemic curve as flat as possible, keeping the number of cases reported each day as low as we can. If we can achieve that, it’ll mean we’ll be able to treat everyone who needs treating. We can all help with this by washing our hands regularly, avoiding touching our mouth, nose, and eyes, and staying away from other people when we are sick. This also means calling ahead if you feel sick and want to go to the doctor or hospital. The last thing we need is loads of our healthcare workers in isolation because they’ve been exposed to Covid-19.
The key point is that this is not just down to government departments and politicians (although this is where the final burden will fall), but to us individually to slow the spread as much as is humanly possible.
Italy just reported 1492 new cases and 133 new deaths. Can we please take this serious. Actions that look ridiculous today will look like the most reasonable thing in 3 weeks, keep that in mind. — Florian Krammer (@florian_krammer) March 8, 2020
Whilst I’m on, McKinsey has a decent three scenario outlook on the effects of the virus on the global economy (I think we might be already well past number one)
“Novel Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2” by NIAID is licensed under CC BY


sluggerotoole--2020-03-09--Fergus on Monday: Corona Reactions

Fergus on Monday: Corona Reactions

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