sluggerotoole--2020-09-23--Change here for Ballinderry, Glenavy, Crumlin and… Aldergrove?

Wesley Johnston very kindly gave me some old NIR , UTA , GNR and even NIRTB timetables owned by his father , and it got me thinking .
I ’ ve long been an advocate of reopening Lisburn-Antrim for commuter services , but what would a train service look like ?
The 1977 NIR timetable is the benchmark , rather than the much slower timetable which applied by the mid-1990s .
10 minutes Antrim-Crumlin , 5 minutes Crumlin-Glenavy , 6 minutes Glenavy-Ballinderry , 9 minutes Ballinderry-Lisburn including a stop at Knockmore .
Trains call at Antrim at 14 minutes past @ @ @ @ @ @ @ minutes past the hour going towards Coleraine , so that ’ s where you begin .
I calculated that this timetable works if crossing loops are provided at Crumlin and another loop in the region of Knockmore Junction : The additional services can be extended all the way to Portrush , crossing at Killagan for a half hourly service Portrush-Belfast .
Connections from Lisburn-Belfast ?
Essential .
Let ’ s have a look and for now let ’ s take the 10:11 from Lisburn .
09:41 from Great Victoria Street connects in with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and there appears to be room for a train to leave Great Victoria Street at 10:00 for a ten minute express trip to travel through to Antrim .
It ’ s also desirable , because you need four minutes minimum to turn a train round and go the other direction and if it ’ s sitting in the platform it ’ s in the way of another train which could be passing through .
Looking good .
What about the other direction ?
10:20 from Antrim .
Arrives Lisburn 10:50 , next departure @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not much good .
Can we run express to Belfast , a mere 9 minutes , arriving at say 11:00 ?
Yes ( in principle ) , right in behind the 10:37 all stops from Lisburn which arrives at 10:58 .
The only real issue is capacity at Great Victoria Street , which won ’ t be fixed until Weavers Cross is completed in the mid-2020s .
So Aldergrove .
There are three options for an airport station : The old Aldergrove station served an adjoining aircraft maintenance depot until 1960 , but @ @ @ @ @ @ @ believe it ’ s just to the east of the village , and has a narrow access road to what is now a private dwelling .
The distance from the terminal is such that you might as well run buses from Crumlin anyway for all the additional time it would take .
A new spur to the terminal From 1916 to 1918 , a siding ran from Aldergrove station to the airfield to assist in its construction , but this trackbed would only have led into what is now the army base .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ across past the fire training school , across Seacash Road , and through the long term car park to reach the terminal , and another alignment to rejoin the main railway line .
I can foresee demolitions required because of the constraints on how sharp a curve is possible on a railway line , and it all relies on the willingness of people to give up land .
British Road crosses the railway line a few minutes from the terminal , and a station could be provided here .
British Road is narrow @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and also carries a weight restriction .
So we ’ re talking quite a considerable cost .
We already know that reinstating Lisburn-Antrim as was in 1977 is estimated at £50,000,000 , including new platforms to 21st century standards , signalling and a full relay , all of which are definitely needed considering that the line had severe permanent speed restrictions from the mid-1990s and that the signalling was obsolete ( arguably it was obsolete in the 1970s… ) By the time you add in the road alterations for a new Aldergrove station @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a spur… What would be the benefits to passengers of a station at British Road ?
With trains passing at ( say ) 5 , 25 , 35 and 55 minutes past the hour , you would need two buses to shuttle between the terminal and the station , probably leaving at 15 , 25 , 45 and 55 minutes past the hour if not earlier .
Time from the terminal building to Belfast ?
At least 45 minutes , and with the inconvenience of having to change between bus and train .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ rush hour , and less inconvenient – the only thing is that the train fare would be cheaper .
Realistically , the only time efficient use for a halt at Aldergrove will be for passengers travelling from Lisburn and west , and from Antrim and north , and even that is doubtful given the existing 109a Ulsterbus service which once ran hourly but has been reduced to two hourly due to sheer lack of demand .
For everyone else knowing that they ’ re going to have to use a bus , they @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and not have to move until they get to the Airport terminal .
Am I being too gloomy ?
Some would say yes , but then I have to point out that Translink has lost millions having to run nearly empty services for essential workers during Covid , and they started the year underfunded to the tune of £20 million ( we ’ ve been here before ) .
They ’ ve now been forced to find that in management cuts to preserve staff who actually operate the services , including the proposed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ If Translink can not secure the money required to operate existing services which not only provide a green alternative but are the difference between our road network functioning and grinding to a halt , if the Department for Infrastructure is already underfunded compared to what it requires to maintain the road network in its curent state , never mind NIWater and Translink , what hope is there of getting money to operate additional services ?
We will wait and see .
I ’ m still convinced that we , the ratepayers , should @ @ @ @ @ @ @ services , reducing the need for the private car ( the old thing of societal responsibility ) , meeting our environmental obligations etc .
That though requires a root and branch review of what the Executive currently uses its capital and revenue budgets for , and the strength to abandon pet projects .
Ballinderry , Crumlin and Glenavy are realistic candidates for reopening , as long as the defunding of what was DRD I noted in 2014 can be reversed – or will it just be another case where the Committee chair blames @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Finance Minister ) refusing to fund what is now DfI properly so that it isn ’ t able to do what it ought ?
Of course there is a far bigger story there of prioritisation of funding which is going to come back to bite Northern Ireland as “ efficiency savings ” prove to result in service cuts because too few politicians are willing to recognise that you only get what you pay for .

Wesley Johnston very kindly gave me some old NIR, UTA, GNR and even NIRTB timetables owned by his father, and it got me thinking.
I’ve long been an advocate of reopening Lisburn-Antrim for commuter services, but what would a train service look like?
The 1977 NIR timetable is the benchmark, rather than the much slower timetable which applied by the mid-1990s. 10 minutes Antrim-Crumlin, 5 minutes Crumlin-Glenavy, 6 minutes Glenavy-Ballinderry, 9 minutes Ballinderry-Lisburn including a stop at Knockmore.
Trains call at Antrim at 14 minutes past the hour going towards Belfast and 47 minutes past the hour going towards Coleraine, so that’s where you begin. I calculated that this timetable works if crossing loops are provided at Crumlin and another loop in the region of Knockmore Junction:
Antrim 07:20 07:50 Crumlin 07:30 08:00 Glenavy 07:35 08:05 Ballinderry 07:42 08:12 Lisburn 07:50 08:20
Lisburn 07:11 07:41 Ballinderry 07:19 07:49 Glenavy 07:25 07:55 Crumlin 07:30 08:00 Antrim 07:39 08:09
The additional services can be extended all the way to Portrush, crossing at Killagan for a half hourly service Portrush-Belfast.
Connections from Lisburn-Belfast? Essential. Let’s have a look and for now let’s take the 10:11 from Lisburn. 09:41 from Great Victoria Street connects in with a five minute wait at Lisburn, and there appears to be room for a train to leave Great Victoria Street at 10:00 for a ten minute express trip to travel through to Antrim. It’s also desirable, because you need four minutes minimum to turn a train round and go the other direction and if it’s sitting in the platform it’s in the way of another train which could be passing through. Looking good.
What about the other direction? 10:20 from Antrim. Arrives Lisburn 10:50, next departure for Belfast 11:07. That’s not much good. Can we run express to Belfast, a mere 9 minutes, arriving at say 11:00? Yes (in principle), right in behind the 10:37 all stops from Lisburn which arrives at 10:58. The only real issue is capacity at Great Victoria Street, which won’t be fixed until Weavers Cross is completed in the mid-2020s.
Airport connections
So Aldergrove. There are three options for an airport station:
The old Aldergrove station
The old Aldergrove station served an adjoining aircraft maintenance depot until 1960, but by 1985 little trace remained. I believe it’s just to the east of the village, and has a narrow access road to what is now a private dwelling. The distance from the terminal is such that you might as well run buses from Crumlin anyway for all the additional time it would take.
A new spur to the terminal
From 1916 to 1918, a siding ran from Aldergrove station to the airfield to assist in its construction, but this trackbed would only have led into what is now the army base. A new spur would have to cut across past the fire training school, across Seacash Road, and through the long term car park to reach the terminal, and another alignment to rejoin the main railway line. I can foresee demolitions required because of the constraints on how sharp a curve is possible on a railway line, and it all relies on the willingness of people to give up land.
A new station at British Road
British Road crosses the railway line a few minutes from the terminal, and a station could be provided here. British Road is narrow, would have to be widened, and also carries a weight restriction.
So we’re talking quite a considerable cost. We already know that reinstating Lisburn-Antrim as was in 1977 is estimated at £50,000,000, including new platforms to 21st century standards, signalling and a full relay, all of which are definitely needed considering that the line had severe permanent speed restrictions from the mid-1990s and that the signalling was obsolete (arguably it was obsolete in the 1970s…) By the time you add in the road alterations for a new Aldergrove station at British Road, never mind building a spur…
What would be the benefits to passengers of a station at British Road? With trains passing at (say) 5, 25, 35 and 55 minutes past the hour, you would need two buses to shuttle between the terminal and the station, probably leaving at 15, 25, 45 and 55 minutes past the hour if not earlier. Time from the terminal building to Belfast? At least 45 minutes, and with the inconvenience of having to change between bus and train. The direct bus is quicker except at rush hour, and less inconvenient – the only thing is that the train fare would be cheaper.
Realistically, the only time efficient use for a halt at Aldergrove will be for passengers travelling from Lisburn and west, and from Antrim and north, and even that is doubtful given the existing 109a Ulsterbus service which once ran hourly but has been reduced to two hourly due to sheer lack of demand. For everyone else knowing that they’re going to have to use a bus, they might as well get it in Belfast and not have to move until they get to the Airport terminal.
Am I being too gloomy? Some would say yes, but then I have to point out that Translink has lost millions having to run nearly empty services for essential workers during Covid, and they started the year underfunded to the tune of £20 million (we’ve been here before). They’ve now been forced to find that in management cuts to preserve staff who actually operate the services, including the proposed closure of the Ulsterbus Tours business. If Translink cannot secure the money required to operate existing services which not only provide a green alternative but are the difference between our road network functioning and grinding to a halt, if the Department for Infrastructure is already underfunded compared to what it requires to maintain the road network in its curent state, never mind NIWater and Translink, what hope is there of getting money to operate additional services?
We will wait and see. I’m still convinced that we, the ratepayers, should be having our money used to expand services, reducing the need for the private car (the old thing of societal responsibility), meeting our environmental obligations etc.
That though requires a root and branch review of what the Executive currently uses its capital and revenue budgets for, and the strength to abandon pet projects.
Ballinderry, Crumlin and Glenavy are realistic candidates for reopening, as long as the defunding of what was DRD I noted in 2014 can be reversed – or will it just be another case where the Committee chair blames the department for the Executive (specifically the Finance Minister) refusing to fund what is now DfI properly so that it isn’t able to do what it ought?
Of course there is a far bigger story there of prioritisation of funding which is going to come back to bite Northern Ireland as “efficiency savings” prove to result in service cuts because too few politicians are willing to recognise that you only get what you pay for.
But I won’t stop dreaming.


sluggerotoole--2020-09-23--NI’s former Attorney General John Larkin disputes claims that  serving or former soldiers are to enj

NI’s former Attorney General John Larkin disputes claims that  serving or former soldiers are to enjoy immunity from prosecution for torture after five years

The idea that the new Overseas Operations Bill gives serving and former soldiers immunity against prosecution even for torture is in dispute .
It ’ s claimed that the proposed legislation would create a “ triple lock ” for troops and veterans , including a presumption against prosecution for alleged offences committed more than five years ago.The bill also proposes to introduce time limits on bringing civil claims in connection with overseas operations ; and would place a duty on the government to consider derogating from the European Convention on Human Rights in relation to significant overseas military operations .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ This government made a promise to the nation to protect service personnel and veterans from vexatious claims and endless investigations .
We have not shied away from the challenge and today are one step closer to fulfilling that commitment ” .
John Larkin QC until recently Northern Ireland ’ s Attorney General in a ” Note ” for the Policy Exchange think tank , agrees soldiers will have added protection but will not enjoy anything like “ immunity ” during or even after a proposed five year time limit on legal action against @ @ @ @ @ @ @ opposed by Amnesty , the UIK Human Rights Commission .
The civil libertarian Cons MP and former Brexit Secretary David Davis has said he ’ s “ deeply troubled ” by government plans to “ decriminalise torture by British personnel if it took place more than five years ago ” … Labour ’ s shadow defence secretary , John Healey , said the government had got “ important parts of this bill badly wrong ” but promised to work with the government on “ better ” legislation .
“ It is not too @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the best way to protect service personnel from vexatious litigation while ensuring that those who commit serious crimes during operations are prosecuted and punished appropriately.
” Shami Chakrabati , former director of the human rights lobby group Liberty and Jeremy Corbin ’ s shadow Attorney General , writes in the Guardian : It should be no surprise that ( the government ) now wishes to ignore the UN convention against torture and the European convention on human rights ( ECHR ) ...
It severely restricts the ability to prosecute serious criminal wrongdoing by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ doing so after five years .
It also requires the attorney general ’ s consent for any such prosecution .
Anyone who has lived through the war on terror will know that we could reasonably face a scenario in which a victim of torture is detained in a legal black hole for far longer than it might take to pursue a crime against them .
Further , the law officer who must consent to any prosecution may well have been the person responsible for authorising the operation now being impugned… All in all @ @ @ @ @ @ @ any one of its provisions is consistent with the kind of ethical defence and military policy that all patriots of right and left espouse – at least in public .
Dog-whistle political rhetoric is bad enough for our discourse .
When it is sprayed onto the statute book , it makes for very bad law indeed .
John Larkin QC rejects particular criticisms of the Bill , denying the existence of “ a triple lock.
” While aspects of the Bill are certainly open to criticism ( and from a variety of perspectives @ @ @ @ @ @ @ or come close to creating , “ de facto immunity ” for serving or former service personnel in respect of serious crimes .
There is no lock , far less a triple lock , that would prevent the prosecution of service personnel “ for torturing people , no matter how bad the torture or how detailed the evidence.
” Taken together , the Bill ’ s provisions constitute an enhanced filter on prosecutions after the lapse of five years .
The Bill will be , if enacted , part of a larger rule @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of professionalism and duty figure strongly .
The five year period for unrestricted prosecutorial consideration , combined as it is with the open-ended enhanced filter , with no bar on investigations , falsifies the claim that the Bill creates a formal or de facto immunity or impunity or lock – let alone anything remotely like a “ triple lock ” .
The Bill does put hurdles in the way of prosecutions for relevant offences after five years have elapsed .
It puts no hurdle in the way of investigations or in the way @ @ @ @ @ @ @ exists to prosecute a particular person for a relevant offence , including torture or other serious crimes .
It is clearly wrong to say that the Bill would forbid prosecution of serious allegations of torture supported by evidence .
What the Bill aims to do is to provide some assurance to service personnel that they are unlikely to be prosecuted , once five years have passed from the events in question .
The Bill works by requiring prosecutors to take into account the public interest in finality ( where there has been a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ since emerged ) and to think about the difficult conditions to which UK forces are subject while on overseas deployment .
One might reasonably object to the Bill on the grounds that these conditions will often be relevant to decisions about whether to prosecute , even before five years has elapsed , either because they may be relevant to whether the person in question committed an offence at all ( if his mental health was such that he could not form the state of mind necessary to constitute a criminal offence ) or @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bear on the public interest in prosecution .
What the Bill clearly does not do is guarantee to service personnel that once five years has elapsed no prosecution may be brought against them .
Whether a prosecution is warranted will still depend on the relative gravity of the alleged offending , the sufficiency of the evidence that is available , and the prosecutor ’ s overall judgement about whether a prosecution is in the public interest .

The idea that the new Overseas Operations Bill gives serving and former soldiers immunity against prosecution even for torture is in dispute.
It’s claimed that the proposed legislation would create a “triple lock” for troops and veterans, including a presumption against prosecution for alleged offences committed more than five years ago.The bill also proposes to introduce time limits on bringing civil claims in connection with overseas operations; and would place a duty on the government to consider derogating from the European Convention on Human Rights in relation to significant overseas military operations.
Defence Secretary Ben Wallace said: “This government made a promise to the nation to protect service personnel and veterans from vexatious claims and endless investigations. We have not shied away from the challenge and today are one step closer to fulfilling that commitment”.
John Larkin QC until recently Northern Ireland’s Attorney General in a ”Note” for the Policy Exchange think tank, agrees soldiers will have added protection but will not enjoy anything like “ immunity” during or even after a proposed five year time limit on legal action against them.
However the Bill has been opposed by Amnesty, the UIK Human Rights Commission. The civil libertarian Cons MP and former Brexit Secretary David Davis has said he’s “deeply troubled” by government plans to “decriminalise torture by British personnel if it took place more than five years ago”… Labour’s shadow defence secretary, John Healey, said the government had got “important parts of this bill badly wrong” but promised to work with the government on “better” legislation.
“It is not too late for ministers to think again about the best way to protect service personnel from vexatious litigation while ensuring that those who commit serious crimes during operations are prosecuted and punished appropriately.”
Shami Chakrabati, former director of the human rights lobby group Liberty and Jeremy Corbin’s shadow Attorney General, writes in the Guardian:
It should be no surprise that ( the government) now wishes to ignore the UN convention against torture and the European convention on human rights (ECHR)... It severely restricts the ability to prosecute serious criminal wrongdoing by overseas personnel by installing a presumption against doing so after five years. It also requires the attorney general’s consent for any such prosecution. Anyone who has lived through the war on terror will know that we could reasonably face a scenario in which a victim of torture is detained in a legal black hole for far longer than it might take to pursue a crime against them. Further, the law officer who must consent to any prosecution may well have been the person responsible for authorising the operation now being impugned…
All in all, it is hard to envisage how any one of its provisions is consistent with the kind of ethical defence and military policy that all patriots of right and left espouse – at least in public. Dog-whistle political rhetoric is bad enough for our discourse. When it is sprayed onto the statute book, it makes for very bad law indeed.
John Larkin QC rejects particular criticisms of the Bill, denying the existence of “a triple lock.”
While aspects of the Bill are certainly open to criticism (and from a variety of perspectives) the Bill does not create, or come close to creating, “de facto immunity” for serving or former service personnel in respect of serious crimes. There is no lock, far less a triple lock, that would prevent the prosecution of service personnel “for torturing people, no matter how bad the torture or how detailed the evidence.”
Taken together, the Bill’s provisions constitute an enhanced filter on prosecutions after the lapse of five years. The Bill will be, if enacted, part of a larger rule of law context in which extant standards of professionalism and duty figure strongly. The five year period for unrestricted prosecutorial consideration, combined as it is with the open-ended enhanced filter, with no bar on investigations, falsifies the claim that the Bill creates a formal or de facto immunity or impunity or lock – let alone anything remotely like a “triple lock”. The Bill does put hurdles in the way of prosecutions for relevant offences after five years have elapsed. It puts no hurdle in the way of investigations or in the way of prosecutorial consideration of whether sufficient evidence exists to prosecute a particular person for a relevant offence, including torture or other serious crimes. It is clearly wrong to say that the Bill would forbid prosecution of serious allegations of torture supported by evidence.
What the Bill aims to do is to provide some assurance to service personnel that they are unlikely to be prosecuted, once five years have passed from the events in question. The Bill works by requiring prosecutors to take into account the public interest in finality (where there has been a relevant investigation and no new evidence has since emerged) and to think about the difficult conditions to which UK forces are subject while on overseas deployment.
One might reasonably object to the Bill on the grounds that these conditions will often be relevant to decisions about whether to prosecute, even before five years has elapsed, either because they may be relevant to whether the person in question committed an offence at all (if his mental health was such that he could not form the state of mind necessary to constitute a criminal offence) or, more likely, because they may bear on the public interest in prosecution.
What the Bill clearly does not do is guarantee to service personnel that once five years has elapsed no prosecution may be brought against them. Whether a prosecution is warranted will still depend on the relative gravity of the alleged offending, the sufficiency of the evidence that is available, and the prosecutor’s overall judgement about whether a prosecution is in the public interest.


sluggerotoole--2020-09-23--Welcome back Fortnight Magazine, we’ve missed you…

Welcome back Fortnight Magazine .
The paper was founded in 1970 by Tom Hadden , and became a haven of sanity during the very years when large chunks of working-class Belfast were imploding in sectarian violence and immense social ( and later economic ) distress .
I first started getting copies out of the old Gardiners newsagents and bookshop in Botanic Avenue in the late seventies when it was a vibrant confluence for thought from all sides , no least the McNee column which was , I presumed ghostwritten by someone with first names like Calvin and Columbanus .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ signal column ( just inside the front cover IIRC ? )
was a powerful antidote to the fatalistic rhetoric of division and the general sense of insolubility that pervaded what passed then political thought much of my adolescence and young adulthood .
Fortnight stood for the principles that would later drive our political class towards the Belfast Agreement accord ( if not the stringent conditions it imposed upon them in practice ) which followed a generation and more later .
Later , not long after I started Slugger we worked in partnership with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ who help distribute paper copies of our Long Peace report on the future of unionism in Northern Ireland .
Now , fifty years after it launched , it ’ s back both as an online version and print .
There ’ s lots of good stuff , not least a beautiful and wise piece by our own Claire Mitchell on the miraculous decency of ordinary village life , that seemingly continues its redemptive work apace without most of our politicians taking the slightest notice , may become a potent source of our wider @ @ @ @ @ @ @ printed issue will be handled by No Alibis at 83 Botanic Avenue , Belfast BT7 1JL as sole distributors .
You can also order a copy by post , from noalibis.com .

Welcome back Fortnight Magazine. The paper was founded in 1970 by Tom Hadden, and became a haven of sanity during the very years when large chunks of working-class Belfast were imploding in sectarian violence and immense social (and later economic) distress.
I first started getting copies out of the old Gardiners newsagents and bookshop in Botanic Avenue in the late seventies when it was a vibrant confluence for thought from all sides, no least the McNee column which was, I presumed ghostwritten by someone with first names like Calvin and Columbanus.
The kinship through enmity implied in that one signal column (just inside the front cover IIRC?) was a powerful antidote to the fatalistic rhetoric of division and the general sense of insolubility that pervaded what passed then political thought much of my adolescence and young adulthood.
Fortnight stood for the principles that would later drive our political class towards the Belfast Agreement accord (if not the stringent conditions it imposed upon them in practice) which followed a generation and more later.
Later, not long after I started Slugger we worked in partnership with the then editor Malachi O’Doherty who help distribute paper copies of our Long Peace report on the future of unionism in Northern Ireland. Now, fifty years after it launched, it’s back both as an online version and print.
There’s lots of good stuff, not least a beautiful and wise piece by our own Claire Mitchell on the miraculous decency of ordinary village life, that seemingly continues its redemptive work apace without most of our politicians taking the slightest notice, may become a potent source of our wider redemption.
Advance orders for the new printed issue will be handled by No Alibis at 83 Botanic Avenue, Belfast BT7 1JL as sole distributors. You can also order a copy by post, from noalibis.com.


sluggerotoole--2020-09-23--So you’re complaining about delays and a forest of forms to clear Larne Harbour? Try the new border

So you’re complaining about delays and a forest of forms to clear Larne Harbour? Try the new border permits for Kent

Minister for the Cabinet Office Michael Gove told MPs today that lorry drivers would need a “ Kent Access Permit ” to get into the county from 1 January with “ police and ANPR cameras [ automatic number plate recognition ] ” enforcing the system .
If they failed , they faced queues of up to 700 trucks trying to reach Dover .
Under government plans in a leaked document KAPs will only be issued to drivers who have completed all the paperwork necessary to board a ferry or Eurotunnel train to Calais .
According to the document seen by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ is proposed to be enforced in Kent with a £300 [ fine ] for port bound HGVs that travel without a Kent Access Permit ” .
The government has not said how it will enforce the KAP and earlier this week , Labour MP Angela Eagle asked : “ Who ’ s going to be patrolling the Kent borders to make sure that no lorry goes into Kent if it hasn ’ t got that passport ?
” “ Where are the border posts for going into Kent going to be ?
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ we are going to need it , but are we going to have Kent border police or border guards ?
” she asked at the treasury select committee on Tuesday .
Industry leaders have also been concerned .
One said it would need physical checks to “ weed out ” those with a KAP and those without , which was a non-starter in their view .
With fewer than four months to go before the end of the Brexit transition period on 31 December , the document also notes that ongoing work at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ advice centres “ is currently unfunded ” with a parallel treasury bid for £18.5m still in development On Tuesday , Gove wrote to hauliers to warn that if they do not prepare now for Brexit they could face queues of up to 7,000 trucks in Kent , confirming internal cabinet analysis of the potential disruption caused by the UK ’ s departure from the single market in January .
The letter also warns of two-day delays for cargo travelling to the EU through Dover or Folkestone ferry or Eurotunnel trains in what it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ scenario ” .
Many companies are now less prepared for a no-deal Brexit than they were a year ago and have yet to make any preparations for such an outcome , ministers are being warned .
As a result of the coronavirus crisis , stockpiles have been wound down , Brexit-related staff redeployed and cashflows seriously depleted .
Yet a potential no-deal outcome is now less than six months away .
The latest warning comes from the Institute for Government thinktank , which also cites official data suggesting that 61 % of businesses @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the end of the Brexit transition period on 31 December .
It also warns that last-minute preparations will be extremely difficult for many sectors , as coronavirus-related government support is wound down and potential for stockpiling is diminished as warehouse The think tank UK in a Changing Europe , modelling with the LSE of the impact of a no-deal Brexit , suggests the total cost to the UK economy over the longer term will be two to three times as large as that implied by the Bank of England ’ s forecast for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ puts the long-term economic hit from a no-deal Brexit at 8 % of GDP , similar to that of the government ’ s own forecast in 2018 of 7.6 % , which amounts to £160bn in today ’ s money , or £2,400 per person .
This compares with the Bank of England ’ s latest forecast of the impact of Covid which shows a reduction of 1.7 % of GDP to the economy up to 2022 .
This amounts to £40bn , or £600 per person , and is dwarfed by cost @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have an impact on GDP for years to come .
The analysis is part of a long report entitled “ What would no deal mean ” ?
The section on Northern Ireland concludes – contrary to the UK government ’ s intentions..
The UK Internal Market Bill will make a no-deal outcome considerably more problematic in Northern Ireland .
The Protocol was devised to ensure that , even if there was no UK–EU deal , there would be no physical border on the island of Ireland and the Good Friday Agreement would be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Protocol it has signed , it is hard to see an outcome that does not lead to significant political turbulence .
No-deal impacts can and will be partly mitigated by effective preparation .
But this challenging task has been made significantly harder by the diversion of people and resources within government to deal with the response to Covid-19 and by the strain the pandemic has placed on businesses across the country .
Brexit has fallen way down their list of priorities .
Even if there is a deal , these frictions will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from Great Britain , there will be import declarations and safety and security certificates .
For animal and plant products , Export Health Certificates and SPS ( Sanitary and phyto-sanitary ) checks will be required .
Negotiations are still ongoing as to what exactly these will look and feel like in practice .
These can not be concluded until we know what the UK-EU deal will ( or won ’ t ) be .
Put simply , if there is no deal , barriers to GB-EU trade will be put in place all @ @ @ @ @ @ @ thus within the United Kingdom .
The wording used in the Protocol itself is that the Joint Committee overseeing the Withdrawal Agreement will decide what goods might be ‘ at risk ’ of movement from GB into the EU via Northern Ireland ; these goods will meet the same strictures as goods moving directly from GB into the EU .
If there were a UK-EU deal , then there may be zero tariffs on UK goods entering the EU , but NI ( via GB ) could still be a backdoor to the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ( Common External Tariff ) on goods from RoW ( rest of the world ) countries .
So far , so well understood .
The NI section of the UK in a Changing Europe ’ s report , however assumes that the Protocol in the Withdrawal Agreement would survive in some form alongside the notorious UK Internal Market Bill , cancelling previously agreed rules for NI remaining in the single market for goods .
I don ’ t know why this is assumed .
No Deal might mean the scrapping of the Protocol @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for the land border .
A consultant who had a leading role in the campaign for an alternative to Theresa May ’ s Irish border “ backstop ” is in the running for all or part of a £200m government contract related to the post-Brexit checks down the Irish Sea .
Shanker Singham , one of the main proponents of the so-called “ alternative arrangements ” for the Irish border , is understood to have teamed up with the customs expert Robert Hardy and the technology company Fujitsu for the Trader Support Service @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of hope in the Times A meeting of the joint committee set up by Britain and the EU to implement the Northern Irish protocol is due to meet on Monday as the latest round of formal Brexit negotiations get under way .
Despite posturing on both sides sources said that some progress had been made on the issues of subsidies and checks on goods crossing the Irish sea .
A senior government source said that if a deal could be struck ministers would immediately withdraw the clauses in the bill that allow them @ @ @ @ @ @ @ breach international law .
“ If we can reach a deal there will be no need for them , ” Michael Gove will lead the UK delegation .
And guess what ?
Members of the NI Executive are invited .

From the Guardian
Minister for the Cabinet Office Michael Gove told MPs today that lorry drivers would need a “Kent Access Permit” to get into the county from 1 January with “police and ANPR cameras [automatic number plate recognition]” enforcing the system. If they failed, they faced queues of up to 700 trucks trying to reach Dover.
Under government plans in a leaked document KAPs will only be issued to drivers who have completed all the paperwork necessary to board a ferry or Eurotunnel train to Calais.
According to the document seen by the Guardian last week the KAP system “is proposed to be enforced in Kent with a £300 [fine] for port bound HGVs that travel without a Kent Access Permit”.
The government has not said how it will enforce the KAP and earlier this week, Labour MP Angela Eagle asked: “Who’s going to be patrolling the Kent borders to make sure that no lorry goes into Kent if it hasn’t got that passport?”
“Where are the border posts for going into Kent going to be? It’s all very well saying we are going to need it, but are we going to have Kent border police or border guards?” she asked at the treasury select committee on Tuesday.
Industry leaders have also been concerned. One said it would need physical checks to “weed out” those with a KAP and those without, which was a non-starter in their view.
With fewer than four months to go before the end of the Brexit transition period on 31 December, the document also notes that ongoing work at the Department for Transport to provide the advice centres “is currently unfunded” with a parallel treasury bid for £18.5m still in development
On Tuesday, Gove wrote to hauliers to warn that if they do not prepare now for Brexit they could face queues of up to 7,000 trucks in Kent, confirming internal cabinet analysis of the potential disruption caused by the UK’s departure from the single market in January.
The letter also warns of two-day delays for cargo travelling to the EU through Dover or Folkestone ferry or Eurotunnel trains in what it is describing as the “reasonable worst-case scenario”.
Many companies are now less prepared for a no-deal Brexit than they were a year ago and have yet to make any preparations for such an outcome, ministers are being warned.
As a result of the coronavirus crisis, stockpiles have been wound down, Brexit-related staff redeployed and cashflows seriously depleted. Yet a potential no-deal outcome is now less than six months away.
The latest warning comes from the Institute for Government thinktank, which also cites official data suggesting that 61% of businesses have made no preparations at all for the end of the Brexit transition period on 31 December.
It also warns that last-minute preparations will be extremely difficult for many sectors, as coronavirus-related government support is wound down and potential for stockpiling is diminished as warehouse
That’s not all…
The think tank UK in a Changing Europe, modelling with the LSE of the impact of a no-deal Brexit, suggests the total cost to the UK economy over the longer term will be two to three times as large as that implied by the Bank of England’s forecast for the impact of Covid-19.
LSE modelling puts the long-term economic hit from a no-deal Brexit at 8% of GDP, similar to that of the government’s own forecast in 2018 of 7.6%, which amounts to £160bn in today’s money, or £2,400 per person.
This compares with the Bank of England’s latest forecast of the impact of Covid which shows a reduction of 1.7% of GDP to the economy up to 2022.
This amounts to £40bn, or £600 per person, and is dwarfed by cost of a no-deal Brexit, which will have an impact on GDP for years to come.
The analysis is part of a long report entitled “What would no deal mean”?
The section on Northern Ireland concludes – contrary to the UK government’s intentions..
The UK Internal Market Bill will make a no-deal outcome considerably more problematic in Northern Ireland.
The Protocol was devised to ensure that, even if there was no UK–EU deal, there would be no physical border on the island of Ireland and the Good Friday Agreement would be upheld. If the UK explicitly rejects the Protocol it has signed, it is hard to see an outcome that does not lead to significant political turbulence.
No-deal impacts can and will be partly mitigated by effective preparation. But this challenging task has been made significantly harder by the diversion of people and resources within government to deal with the response to Covid-19 and by the strain the pandemic has placed on businesses across the country. Brexit has fallen way down their list of priorities.
Even if there is a deal, these frictions will be significant. For goods entering NI from Great Britain, there will be import declarations and safety and security certificates. For animal and plant products, Export Health Certificates and SPS (Sanitary and phyto-sanitary) checks will be required. Negotiations are still ongoing as to what exactly these will look and feel like in practice. These cannot be concluded until we know what the UK-EU deal will (or won’t) be. Put simply, if there is no deal, barriers to GB-EU trade will be put in place all around the island of Great Britain and thus within the United Kingdom. The wording used in the Protocol itself is that the Joint Committee overseeing the Withdrawal Agreement will decide what goods might be ‘at risk’ of movement from GB into the EU via Northern Ireland; these goods will meet the same strictures as goods moving directly from GB into the EU.
If there were a UK-EU deal, then there may be zero tariffs on UK goods entering the EU, but NI (via GB) could still be a backdoor to the EU for importers to avoid the CET (Common External Tariff) on goods from RoW ( rest of the world) countries.
So far, so well understood. The NI section of the UK in a Changing Europe’s report, however assumes that the Protocol in the Withdrawal Agreement would survive in some form alongside the notorious UK Internal Market Bill, cancelling previously agreed rules for NI remaining in the single market for goods. I don’t know why this is assumed. No Deal might mean the scrapping of the Protocol entirely and a crisis over the consequences for the land border.
In other news…
A consultant who had a leading role in the campaign for an alternative to Theresa May’s Irish border “backstop” is in the running for all or part of a £200m government contract related to the post-Brexit checks down the Irish Sea.
Shanker Singham, one of the main proponents of the so-called “alternative arrangements” for the Irish border, is understood to have teamed up with the customs expert Robert Hardy and the technology company Fujitsu for the Trader Support Service (TSS) contract.
A glimmer of hope in the Times
A meeting of the joint committee set up by Britain and the EU to implement the Northern Irish protocol is due to meet on Monday as the latest round of formal Brexit negotiations get under way. Despite posturing on both sides sources said that some progress had been made on the issues of subsidies and checks on goods crossing the Irish sea.
A senior government source said that if a deal could be struck ministers would immediately withdraw the clauses in the bill that allow them to potentially override the withdrawal agreement in breach international law. “If we can reach a deal there will be no need for them,”
Michael Gove will lead the UK delegation. And guess what? Members of the NI Executive are invited.


sluggerotoole--2020-09-24--“Build Back Better” – how do we turn soundbites into a successful reset and recovery?

Covid-19 will continue to damage our collective health and our economy for a long time to come .
Many businesses will fail and , even more sadly , many more people will die from coronavirus .
Yet it should not be too early to consider recovery .
The SDLP has put together four principles for that recovery – a new deal for young people ; a new localism ; new connectivity ; and new powers to transform Northern Ireland .
Compare this substance to the waffle and soundbites emerging from the British prime minister Boris Johnson .
We have moved @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ‘ Build Back Better ’ .
In both cases , bluster covers an empty void .
My party has given serious consideration to the shape of the future economy of Northern Ireland – both because we know the future will be different from the past , and because the past was not very good for many of the people we represent .
Northern Ireland has never had a balanced economy , not in geographical , class , or community terms .
If our future is to be better than our past we need @ @ @ @ @ @ @ need it to address our two key weaknesses : infrastructure and skills .
My colleague Nichola Mallon is committed to a physical reshaping of Northern Ireland through greater investment in road , rail and water .
In my role of deputy chair of the Assembly ’ s economy committee I have been pushing for the private sector to up its game in terms of stronger electricity and broadband connectivity .
But this is not enough .
As we look forward we have to consider other aspects of our physical environment , recognising that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ If some people – and Sammy Wilson and Donald Trump come to mind – believe this is an overstatement then the fires in the West coast of the United States and earlier this year in Australia should be proof to anyone willing to accept scientific evidence .
A recent report from the University of Oxford ’ s Smith School provides an outline of how we can focus on social progress as we seek to emerge from the pandemic emergency .
Report authors include some of the most respected figures in economics – Nobel @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the influential UK government report on climate change , Nicholas Stern .
Northern Ireland has opportunities to decarbonise our economy that must not be missed .
Our air is dirty – my constituency of Foyle has some of the worst air quality of anywhere in the UK .
What is more , poor air quality is a key contributor to Covid-19 mortality .
Meanwhile , our progress towards carbon reduction targets is slow and out of step with Great Britain and the Republic of Ireland .
And yet we have some of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and hydrogen .
There is a reason why Barack Obama was told in 2008 , after the global financial crash , ‘ don ’ t waste a good crisis ’ .
He responded by linking rescue packages for US auto companies with binding obligations by them to cut their emissions .
Similarly , the Smith School authors observe “ the [ pandemic ] crisis has demonstrated that governments can intervene decisively once the scale of an emergency is clear and public support is present.
” It is proven that the world is facing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ produce an emergency response to Covid-19 , then surely we can do the same in response to climate change ?
And if we can do the two together then so much better .
What this means is that the recovery package in Northern Ireland must be focused on constructing a cleaner economy .
It means greater investment in renewable electricity ; faster progress towards eliminating dirty fuels , such as coal ; more research and development in hydrogen ; investing into retrofitting homes via the Green New Deal ; and building a new @ @ @ @ @ @ @ carbon capture , advanced battery storage and the health sciences .
Even for climate sceptics , this package of measures should be attractive and they produce an array of positive outcomes .
These include cleaner air ; better population health ; a more sustainable NHS ; and a focus on the industries of the future , rather than those of the past .
Not even Sammy Wilson or Donald Trump should disparage that .
Sinead McLaughlin is the SDLP ’ s economy spokesperson , deputy chair of the Assembly ’ s economy committee @ @ @ @ @ @ @ would like to get involved in # TheReset with Ulster Bank either as an individual or as part of an organisation , please do get in touch by emailing us at [ email protected ] with an idea for inclusion in a range of articles or events over September and October .

Sinead McLaughlin is the SDLP’s economy spokesperson, deputy chair of the Assembly’s economy committee and a Foyle MLA.
Covid-19 will continue to damage our collective health and our economy for a long time to come. Many businesses will fail and, even more sadly, many more people will die from coronavirus.
Yet it should not be too early to consider recovery. The SDLP has put together four principles for that recovery – a new deal for young people; a new localism; new connectivity; and new powers to transform Northern Ireland.
Compare this substance to the waffle and soundbites emerging from the British prime minister Boris Johnson. We have moved from ‘Get Brexit Done’ to ‘Build Back Better’. In both cases, bluster covers an empty void.
My party has given serious consideration to the shape of the future economy of Northern Ireland – both because we know the future will be different from the past, and because the past was not very good for many of the people we represent. Northern Ireland has never had a balanced economy, not in geographical, class, or community terms.
If our future is to be better than our past we need it to be fairer and we also need it to address our two key weaknesses: infrastructure and skills. My colleague Nichola Mallon is committed to a physical reshaping of Northern Ireland through greater investment in road, rail and water. In my role of deputy chair of the Assembly’s economy committee I have been pushing for the private sector to up its game in terms of stronger electricity and broadband connectivity.
But this is not enough. As we look forward we have to consider other aspects of our physical environment, recognising that carbon emissions are destroying our society. If some people – and Sammy Wilson and Donald Trump come to mind – believe this is an overstatement then the fires in the West coast of the United States and earlier this year in Australia should be proof to anyone willing to accept scientific evidence.
A recent report from the University of Oxford’s Smith School provides an outline of how we can focus on social progress as we seek to emerge from the pandemic emergency. Report authors include some of the most respected figures in economics – Nobel prize winner Joseph Stiglitz and author of the influential UK government report on climate change, Nicholas Stern.
Northern Ireland has opportunities to decarbonise our economy that must not be missed. Our air is dirty – my constituency of Foyle has some of the worst air quality of anywhere in the UK. What is more, poor air quality is a key contributor to Covid-19 mortality. Meanwhile, our progress towards carbon reduction targets is slow and out of step with Great Britain and the Republic of Ireland. And yet we have some of the best natural environment to produce renewable electricity and hydrogen.
There is a reason why Barack Obama was told in 2008, after the global financial crash, ‘don’t waste a good crisis’. He responded by linking rescue packages for US auto companies with binding obligations by them to cut their emissions.
Similarly, the Smith School authors observe “the [pandemic] crisis has demonstrated that governments can intervene decisively once the scale of an emergency is clear and public support is present.” It is proven that the world is facing a climate emergency. If we can produce an emergency response to Covid-19, then surely we can do the same in response to climate change? And if we can do the two together then so much better.
What this means is that the recovery package in Northern Ireland must be focused on constructing a cleaner economy. It means greater investment in renewable electricity; faster progress towards eliminating dirty fuels, such as coal; more research and development in hydrogen; investing into retrofitting homes via the Green New Deal; and building a new economy around emerging clean energy technologies, carbon capture, advanced battery storage and the health sciences.
Even for climate sceptics, this package of measures should be attractive and they produce an array of positive outcomes. These include cleaner air; better population health; a more sustainable NHS; and a focus on the industries of the future, rather than those of the past. Not even Sammy Wilson or Donald Trump should disparage that.
If you would like to get involved in #TheReset with Ulster Bank either as an individual or as part of an organisation, please do get in touch by emailing us at [email protected] with an idea for inclusion in a range of articles or events over September and October.


sluggerotoole--2020-09-25--Notes of optimism from London about the Brexit talks are treated cautiously in Brussels and Dublin.

Notes of optimism from London about the Brexit talks are treated cautiously in Brussels and Dublin. Whatever happens, Northern Ireland won’t be ready

Briefing on the Brexit negotiations is growing more intense .
From the British side , hopes of a breakthrough are reported by the political editor of the Spectator James Forsyth .
Inevitably this translates into a British claim that the EU are at last bending on their hitherto implacable position of full UK compliance with the Withdrawal Agreement including the Protocol , and the withdrawal of the offending parts of the Internal Market Bill .
The EU side are briefing differently but not quite incompatibly ; they are still requiring a detailed British position that keeps the UK in compatibility @ @ @ @ @ @ @ end on the New Year , and a strong dispute resolution mechanism if the British intend to diverge .
The resulting free trade agreement would then allow the frictions in GB to NI supply to be considerably eased .
From Forsyth ’ s report in The Times There is cautious but growing optimism in Whitehall that there will be a Brexit deal .
At the beginning of this month the mood was grim .
There was a feeling that the talks weren ’ t getting anywhere .
This frustration contributed to the Internal @ @ @ @ @ @ @ disapply parts of the withdrawal agreement .
But there is now a more positive attitude , a sense that things are moving and that a deal is coming into view… Boris Johnson tried to justify his threat to break international law by warning that without action by Britain the EU could impose an effective food blockade on Northern Ireland .
The argument was that unless the EU granted the UK third-country status for agricultural exports , which it has not yet committed to do , it could prevent food being moved from Great @ @ @ @ @ @ @ stay within the rules of the EU single market .
The threat not to list the UK was made by one EU figure but calmer heads have prevailed .
The government is now confident that the EU will give it third-country status , meaning that food can continue to be moved freely between Great Britain and Northern Ireland , and between this country and the Continent , too .
The progress on Northern Ireland has been matched in the broader trade negotiations .
The British side now view the remaining problems as being @ @ @ @ @ @ @ source close to the negotiations tells me : “ There ’ s no doubt that the tone has improved but we really need to begin the intensive talks to resolve the final tricky issues .
We ’ re keen to begin now , but at the moment the EU keeps blocking these talks and demanding more process .
The real risk now isn ’ t that the talks fail over substance , it ’ s that they will be timed out.
” If this British interpretation of the situation is correct — and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sounding more positive than they did a few weeks ago — then the injection of some political will could give the talks the momentum they need .
But making an the issue of a delay in awarding the UK “ third country listing ” was probably tactical .
The EU were never going to hold up food supplies to Northern Ireland , one of the alarmist claims that led to the Internal Market Bill Otherwise the talking up of breakthrough is not reflected in the briefing from Brussels , carefully monitored by Peter @ @ @ @ @ @ @ perspective , the door is still open to that trade deal : the only question in Brussels ’ mind is whether Mr Johnson will walk through that door to avoid a heap of unnecessary additional trade disruption in January , overruling the most sovereignty-focused members of his own party in the process .
For Mr Johnson to grasp that prize , the EU still seeks the triple lock of a detailed “ shared philosophy ” on subsidies : a solid domestic regulator with enforcement powers and robust dispute resolution mechanism to resolve differences @ @ @ @ @ @ @ now that Mr Johnson has shown himself capable of treaty-breaking .
The EU may have softened its original red lines on state aid , no longer requesting dynamic alignment and the oversight of the European Court of Justice .
But it remains clear that the price of a “ zero tariff , zero quota ” FTA is still the UK offering level playing field guarantees that the EU views as commensurate with the “ geographic proximity and economic interdependence ” of the UK with the EU .
This was the EU position in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ you might now look to sugar the pill — and the basic problem might still be that Mr Johnson is simply not willing to swallow that pill .
… The UK has systematically stripped back its requests for market access to the EU since January to the point that the deal on offer is , arguably , already not worth any encumbrance with the EU ’ s regulatory regime .
When it comes to state aid and subsidies , the UK is clear that it rejects a “ shared philosophy ” but seeks @ @ @ @ @ @ @ principles of subsidy , with a UK regulator to manage its internal market issues and any disputes with the EU resolved after the fact through the imposition of tariffs .
..
There is talk in Europe of giving Mr Johnson a “ ladder to climb down ” , but the decision may already have been taken in Downing Street that slipping back into the warm embrace of the EU ’ s regulatory orbit for the sake of convenience is not worth it — either politically or , so skinny is the FTA deal @ @ @ @ @ @ @ declaration says level playing field commitments should be “ commensurate with the scope and depth of the future relationship ” , and the UK argument is that the “ scope and depth ” of its requests can not justify the scale of commitments the EU is asking for .
The EU disagrees , and going back on its level playing field philosophy would be as big a volte-face for Brussels as accepting a shared philosophy on subsidies would be for Mr Johnson and many Brexiters in his party .
@ simoncoveney on the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s General Affairs Council in Brussels : “ There ’ s likely to be a break of a number of weeks between the Commons consideration and the Lords consideration of this legislation .
That ’ s a window that all of us should look to as an opportunity to make progress .
Because if we can deal with the issues that the legislation proposes to deal with , in the absence of agreement , then it makes that legislation irrelevant… Coveney says two of the three issues the UK has issues with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the state aid reach back and tariffs on goods going GB-NI – would be made “ less contentious , if contentious at all ” if an FTA was reached .
Diplomats say the third issue – exit summary declarations on goods going NI-GB – were already being explored by the Joint Committee .
Progress was being made at seeing how such controls could be simplified .
“ This is the sort of thing the EU is very good at , ” says one diplomat .
As if we needed reminding , the price @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to the latest estimate by the think tank UK in a Changing Europe .
Our modelling suggests a no deal could imply a reduction in UK GDP of some eight per cent over the next 10 years , larger than most estimates of the lasting impact of Covid-19 .
No deal also means the prospect of increased prices for consumers , especially for food as both sides apply tariffs .
There will also be less obvious but nevertheless important implications , for example on security co-operation .
Even with a benign result , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ implementing a deal is extended .
New checking facilities for goods arriving in Northern Ireland from Great Britain will not be ready for the end of the Brexit transition period , a senior official has confirmed .
Contingency arrangements are being prepared , including the repurposing of old buildings and an interim paper-based checking system , when the requirement for additional regulatory checks at ports comes into effect on January 1 .
Denis McMahon , the permanent secretary in the Department of Agriculture Environment and Rural Affairs , said he and his colleagues @ @ @ @ @ @ @ position ” as they worked on a project that was openly opposed by their minister , Edwin Poots .
He told his Assembly scrutiny committee : “ My message to you today is , despite monumental efforts by the team , not everything will be place by the 1st of January 2021 .
”

Briefing on the Brexit negotiations is growing more intense. From the British side, hopes of a breakthrough are reported by the political editor of the Spectator James Forsyth. Inevitably this translates into a British claim that the EU are at last bending on their hitherto implacable insistence on full UK compliance with the Withdrawal Agreement including the Protocol, and the withdrawal of the offending parts of the Internal Market Bill. The EU side are briefing differently but not quite incompatibly; they are still requiring a detailed British position that keeps the UK in compatibility with the transition arrangements that will end on the New Year, and a strong dispute resolution mechanism if the British intend to diverge. The resulting free trade agreement would then allow the frictions in GB to NI supply to be considerably eased.
From Forsyth’s report in The Times
There is cautious but growing optimism in Whitehall that there will be a Brexit deal. At the beginning of this month the mood was grim. There was a feeling that the talks weren’t getting anywhere. This frustration contributed to the Internal Market Bill’s rash commitment to disapply parts of the withdrawal agreement. But there is now a more positive attitude, a sense that things are moving and that a deal is coming into view…
Boris Johnson tried to justify his threat to break international law by warning that without action by Britain the EU could impose an effective food blockade on Northern Ireland. The argument was that unless the EU granted the UK third-country status for agricultural exports, which it has not yet committed to do, it could prevent food being moved from Great Britain to Northern Ireland, which will stay within the rules of the EU single market. The threat not to list the UK was made by one EU figure but calmer heads have prevailed. The government is now confident that the EU will give it third-country status, meaning that food can continue to be moved freely between Great Britain and Northern Ireland, and between this country and the Continent, too.
The progress on Northern Ireland has been matched in the broader trade negotiations. The British side now view the remaining problems as being more about process than substance. One source close to the negotiations tells me: “There’s no doubt that the tone has improved but we really need to begin the intensive talks to resolve the final tricky issues. We’re keen to begin now, but at the moment the EU keeps blocking these talks and demanding more process. The real risk now isn’t that the talks fail over substance, it’s that they will be timed out.”
If this British interpretation of the situation is correct — and those close to the EU side are sounding more positive than they did a few weeks ago — then the injection of some political will could give the talks the momentum they need.
But making an issue of a delay in awarding the UK “third country listing” was probably tactical. The EU were never going to hold up food supplies to Northern Ireland, one of the alarmist claims that led to the Internal Market Bill Otherwise the talking up of breakthrough is not reflected in the briefing from Brussels, carefully monitored by Peter Foster of the FT
From an EU perspective, the door is still open to that trade deal: the only question in Brussels’ mind is whether Mr Johnson will walk through that door to avoid a heap of unnecessary additional trade disruption in January, overruling the most sovereignty-focused members of his own party in the process.
For Mr Johnson to grasp that prize, the EU still seeks the triple lock of a detailed “shared philosophy” on subsidies: a solid domestic regulator with enforcement powers and robust dispute resolution mechanism to resolve differences — something viewed as even more essential now that Mr Johnson has shown himself capable of treaty-breaking. The EU may have softened its original red lines on state aid, no longer requesting dynamic alignment and the oversight of the European Court of Justice. But it remains clear that the price of a “zero tariff, zero quota” FTA is still the UK offering level playing field guarantees that the EU views as commensurate with the “geographic proximity and economic interdependence” of the UK with the EU. This was the EU position in 2017 and remains so now, however you might now look to sugar the pill — and the basic problem might still be that Mr Johnson is simply not willing to swallow that pill. …
The UK has systematically stripped back its requests for market access to the EU since January to the point that the deal on offer is, arguably, already not worth any encumbrance with the EU’s regulatory regime. When it comes to state aid and subsidies, the UK is clear that it rejects a “shared philosophy” but seeks an entirely independent regime based on WTO principles of subsidy, with a UK regulator to manage its internal market issues and any disputes with the EU resolved after the fact through the imposition of tariffs. ..
There is talk in Europe of giving Mr Johnson a “ladder to climb down”, but the decision may already have been taken in Downing Street that slipping back into the warm embrace of the EU’s regulatory orbit for the sake of convenience is not worth it — either politically or, so skinny is the FTA deal on offer, economically. The political declaration says level playing field commitments should be “commensurate with the scope and depth of the future relationship”, and the UK argument is that the “scope and depth” of its requests cannot justify the scale of commitments the EU is asking for. The EU disagrees, and going back on its level playing field philosophy would be as big a volte-face for Brussels as accepting a shared philosophy on subsidies would be for Mr Johnson and many Brexiters in his party.
Tony Connelly of RTE tweets s “some potentially conciliatory remarks by Irish foreign minister
@simoncoveney on the Internal Market Bill standoff, following yesterday’s General Affairs Council in Brussels:
“There’s likely to be a break of a number of weeks between the Commons consideration and the Lords consideration of this legislation. That’s a window that all of us should look to as an opportunity to make progress. Because if we can deal with the issues that the legislation proposes to deal with, in the absence of agreement, then it makes that legislation irrelevant… Coveney says two of the three issues the UK has issues with on the NI Protocol – ie, the state aid reach back and tariffs on goods going GB-NI – would be made “less contentious, if contentious at all” if an FTA was reached.
Diplomats say the third issue – exit summary declarations on goods going NI-GB – were already being explored by the Joint Committee. Progress was being made at seeing how such controls could be simplified. “This is the sort of thing the EU is very good at,” says one diplomat.
As if we needed reminding, the price of No Deal is high, according to the latest estimate by the think tank UK in a Changing Europe.
Our modelling suggests a no deal could imply a reduction in UK GDP of some eight per cent over the next 10 years, larger than most estimates of the lasting impact of Covid-19.
No deal also means the prospect of increased prices for consumers, especially for food as both sides apply tariffs. There will also be less obvious but nevertheless important implications, for example on security co-operation.
Even with a benign result, NI will suffer unless the timetable for implementing a deal is extended.
New checking facilities for goods arriving in Northern Ireland from Great Britain will not be ready for the end of the Brexit transition period, a senior official has confirmed.
Contingency arrangements are being prepared, including the repurposing of old buildings and an interim paper-based checking system, when the requirement for additional regulatory checks at ports comes into effect on January 1.
Denis McMahon, the permanent secretary in the Department of Agriculture Environment and Rural Affairs, said he and his colleagues had been left in an “impossible position” as they worked on a project that was openly opposed by their minister, Edwin Poots.
He told his Assembly scrutiny committee: “My message to you today is, despite monumental efforts by the team, not everything will be place by the 1st of January 2021.”


sluggerotoole--2020-09-25--When culture is exploited to create discord, “humour aids survival” (and pluralism)…

This is the first in a two-part series on how culture war is a mark of fake politics and not the least in our own backyard and is written from a pro-union perspective .
Part two will appear next Friday .
In an early version of ‘ cancel culture ’ , the Andersontown News mocked Ulster-Scots as ‘ a DIY language for Orangemen ’ .
‘ Culture cringe ’ Unionists accommodated the mockery .
They did a linguistic and cultural heritage of all a disservice .
Similarly , the disparaging remarks of Sammy Wilson , DUP MP in describing the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the IRA ’ failed to recognise that culture is best lived for what it is and not for what it is perceived to be against .
A culture war can only ever be a ‘ sham fight.
’ Political comments aimed at enhancing cultural preference by seeking to hollow out another produces combative binary identities with politicians as curators .
Divisive symbolism promotes a reductionist cultural understanding and frames narratives bordering on myth-making to be soaked up like a communal sponge .
A filtered claim on cultural belonging results .
When former Sinn @ @ @ @ @ @ @ art and culture can displace conflict contingent with political activity and opportunity ’ he was fine-tuning a old traditional and all too familiar model .
Unionist leaders too are not averse to extracting this soft power of culture in aligning politics to favoured institutional affiliations and past events .
With pro-Union individuals distancing from unquestioning cultural expectation to no longer embrace a culturally essentialist paradigm , it becomes clearer that cultural unionism is the inheritor of a diverse spectrum of cultural hybridity .
Declan Kiberd suggests in Inventing Ireland , ‘ identity is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a matter of negotiation and exchange.
’ This is particularly true of Unionism , not least in cultural sporting arenas , where Irish , Ulster , Northern Ireland , Great Britain and NI allegiances and relationships reflect flexibility .
These pluralist identities when sat alongside social and religious diversity are not a neat fit with the closed imagination which a too authoritative and patently uninformed politics have attempted to foster .
Historically , present-day unionist culture is dynamic and always being formed ; with connections to and relationships with major regions of Great @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be otherwise “ Culture ” was once seen through an elitist lens with limited connection to the wider community .
Historically , this higher version was found to contrast with ‘ low or popular culture ’ .
But this perception of culture is now viewed as limiting ; not democratic or inclusive .
In fact almost anything we do as human beings in society is related to culture .
Through this wider prism that we can encourage a fuller understanding of the contemporary mosaic of unionist cultural expression .
When we actually look @ @ @ @ @ @ @ one-dimensional .
Yet , Northern Ireland particularly Unionist culture is judged to be otherwise and therefore by extention to be not in line with the pluralism of mainland Britain or the modern world .
Why is such a claim seen as valid ?
Has no surrender unionism betrayed the totality of its cultural DNA to concentrate on and comply with a minimalist identity to counter Irish nationalism ?
It is understandable that , when Northern Ireland was established as one of two states on the island of Ireland , unionism , facing opposition @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from Westminster , sought to establish solidarity through a distinctive political and cultural identity .
Sacrifice and heroism , certain imperial icons , history , commemorations and the arts were embraced to the exclusion of others .
Gaelic language , previously on display at pro-Union gatherings , was over time and gradually disavowed and discouraged .
A selective orthodoxy emerged and , as with political unionism , diversity or radical departure was discouraged .
It served to suffocate any political , intellectual , cultural challenge or deviation .
It was in a sense @ @ @ @ @ @ @ been a factor in a wider lack of democratic and political quality assurance .
Unionism become trapped between the civic and inclusive vision of Sir Edward Carson and over- cautious political management of a state under threat ?
Carson ’ s vision became blurred ?
The door to pro-Union creative cultural energy partially closed and allowed others to impose meaning on Unionist culture .
Academic Connall Parr points to understanding of the consequences : Yet , just as now , this heritage and culture continued to breathe and its creativity has survived .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ Carnwath , John Hewitt and Sam Thompson , the works of Christina Reid , who is referenced in an Irish Times interview as using her drama to “ negotiate the Troubles and beyond with humour that aids survival.
” Photo by PicsbyFran is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA

This is the first in a two-part series on how culture war is a mark of fake politics and not the least in our own backyard and is written from a pro-union perspective. Part two will appear next Friday.
In an early version of ‘cancel culture’, the Andersontown News mocked Ulster-Scots as ‘a DIY language for Orangemen’. ‘Culture cringe’ Unionists accommodated the mockery. They did a linguistic and cultural heritage of all a disservice.
Similarly, the disparaging remarks of Sammy Wilson, DUP MP in describing the GAA as ‘the sporting wing of the IRA’ failed to recognise that culture is best lived for what it is and not for what it is perceived to be against. A culture war can only ever be a ‘sham fight.’
Political comments aimed at enhancing cultural preference by seeking to hollow out another produces combative binary identities with politicians as curators.
Divisive symbolism promotes a reductionist cultural understanding and frames narratives bordering on myth-making to be soaked up like a communal sponge. A filtered claim on cultural belonging results.
When former Sinn Fein spokesperson Danny Morrison stated that ‘art and culture can displace conflict contingent with political activity and opportunity’ he was fine-tuning a old traditional and all too familiar model.
Unionist leaders too are not averse to extracting this soft power of culture in aligning politics to favoured institutional affiliations and past events.
With pro-Union individuals distancing from unquestioning cultural expectation to no longer embrace a culturally essentialist paradigm, it becomes clearer that cultural unionism is the inheritor of a diverse spectrum of cultural hybridity.
Declan Kiberd suggests in Inventing Ireland, ‘identity is seldom straightforward and given, more often a matter of negotiation and exchange.’
This is particularly true of Unionism, not least in cultural sporting arenas, where Irish, Ulster, Northern Ireland, Great Britain and NI allegiances and relationships reflect flexibility.
These pluralist identities when sat alongside social and religious diversity are not a neat fit with the closed imagination which a too authoritative and patently uninformed politics have attempted to foster.
Historically, present-day unionist culture is dynamic and always being formed; with connections to and relationships with major regions of Great Britain and Ireland.
It cannot be otherwise
“Culture” was once seen through an elitist lens with limited connection to the wider community. Historically, this higher version was found to contrast with ‘low or popular culture’.
But this perception of culture is now viewed as limiting; not democratic or inclusive. In fact almost anything we do as human beings in society is related to culture.
Through this wider prism that we can encourage a fuller understanding of the contemporary mosaic of unionist cultural expression. When we actually look we find it is neither stagnant or one-dimensional.
Yet, Northern Ireland particularly Unionist culture is judged to be otherwise and therefore by extention to be not in line with the pluralism of mainland Britain or the modern world.
Why is such a claim seen as valid? Has no surrender unionism betrayed the totality of its cultural DNA to concentrate on and comply with a minimalist identity to counter Irish nationalism?
It is understandable that, when Northern Ireland was established as one of two states on the island of Ireland, unionism, facing opposition from militant republicanism and unsure of support from Westminster, sought to establish solidarity through a distinctive political and cultural identity.
Sacrifice and heroism, certain imperial icons, history, commemorations and the arts were embraced to the exclusion of others. Gaelic language, previously on display at pro-Union gatherings, was over time and gradually disavowed and discouraged.
A selective orthodoxy emerged and, as with political unionism, diversity or radical departure was discouraged. It served to suffocate any political, intellectual, cultural challenge or deviation. It was in a sense surrendering ground.
This has to have been a factor in a wider lack of democratic and political quality assurance.
Unionism become trapped between the civic and inclusive vision of Sir Edward Carson and over- cautious political management of a state under threat? Carson’s vision became blurred?
The door to pro-Union creative cultural energy partially closed and allowed others to impose meaning on Unionist culture.
Academic Connall Parr points to understanding of the consequences:
‘Protestant working class heritage and culture was downplayed by Ulster Unionists and Irish Republicans allowing the image of a reactionary Unionist monolith to emerge’
Yet, just as now, this heritage and culture continued to breathe and its creativity has survived.
Connall cites, amongst others, Thomas Carnwath, John Hewitt and Sam Thompson, the works of Christina Reid, who is referenced in an Irish Times interview as using her drama to “negotiate the Troubles and beyond with humour that aids survival.”
Photo by PicsbyFran is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA


sluggerotoole--2020-09-25--#TheReset: Incredible opportunity to bring well-heeled consumers into the Northern Ireland economy

Only a handful of weeks after issuing a mandatory work-from-home order for all staff it became clear that remote work had not undermined productivity at all .
If anything , productivity was up .
In mid-April this year , my business partner and I took the decision to close our offices in Washington DC .
Permanently .
As more companies move to downsize their office space and shift workers permanently to work-from-home status , an opportunity exists for Northern Ireland to take the lead in the post-COVID economy .
Going to ‘ the office ’ every day suddenly made about @ @ @ @ @ @ @ menu at OX Belfast and then asking for ketchup .
Sure , you could do it .
But why on earth would you ?
We are not alone .
A recent Gartner study found that 74 % of CFOs expected to move previously office-based employees remote post-COVID .
From huge high tech firms like Facebook to old school companies like Nationwide Insurance , office footprints are being dramatically reduced and staff are being told that working from home will be the norm .
As Tobi Lutke , the founder and CEO of Canadian @ @ @ @ @ @ @ centricity is over.
” Workers are on board too .
A recent Gallup poll revealed that half of those working from home due to COVID would keep working remotely if it were up to them .
And why not ?
Just take the staff at my company .
On average they are each saving almost 340 hours per year by not commuting to their office each day .
Plus there are the financial savings made by individual workers , which Global Workplace Analytics puts at between $ 2,500 and $ 4,000 a year @ @ @ @ @ @ @ time .
The workplace for huge numbers of people in service sector jobs is wherever they want to be .
One of my colleagues is splitting their time between their home in DC , their family ’ s beach house in South Carolina , and another beach house in Cabo .
The back and forth of in-office chat and client management has been replaced by Zoom meetings and conversations on Slack .
This new reality should act as a call to arms for Northern Ireland .
With output per hour a shocking 15.6 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the most recent year for which statistics are available , Northern Ireland consistently ranks as one of the least productive regions of the UK .
Only Yorkshire and the Humber was worse .
Huge and commendable efforts have been made by the Executive over the years to attract foreign direct investment , but as the SDLP ’ s Matthew O ’ Toole recently pointed out the tendency has been to settle for investment that is low value-adding .
Back-office jobs from foreign companies are not a bad thing per se , but @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
A new approach is required .
Not a replacement of that which went before , but an augmentation .
To date , the focus has been on bringing jobs to Northern Ireland .
To seize the opportunity of the post-COVID world , Northern Ireland should develop a plan to attract people who already have jobs elsewhere : high-income service sector professionals whose need for a home near the office has been replaced with a desire to set up home somewhere that provides their ideal lifestyle .
In short , an incredible opportunity @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Ireland economy is just sitting there , waiting to be seized .
The good news is that Northern Ireland has a huge amount to offer this new breed of nomadic lifestyle consumer .
Let us just run through the obvious things .
Low cost of living .
Access to a range of incredible no-fee schools at both primary and secondary levels .
Some of the most stunning outdoors in the world that are a short drive from even the centre of Belfast .
A restaurant scene that draws deserved international acclaim .
An @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the basic needs – great coffee , independent shops , arts , music , and so on – to sate the day-to-day appetite of those used to living in much larger cities .
And for those who need their big-city fix , London , Paris , Berlin , and more are just short flights away .
There is a problem , though .
The Northern Ireland Executive does not have the levers it needs to pull this off , because it has no control over immigration and insufficient control over taxation to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to be fought for and won .
To be clear , Westminster will not cede immigration to the devolved governments of the UK anytime soon .
But it could create a special class of visa , not dissimilar to Estonia ’ s Digital Nomad Visa , that would allow remote workers to live in the UK and legally work for an employer based elsewhere .
Westminster could allocate these visas on a quota basis to the devolved governments , providing them with limited control over immigration in their own jurisdictions , while pursuing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the new post-COVID world .
Even 5,000 of these visas for Northern Ireland could have a transformative impact when you consider that net immigration in the most recent year on record was only 4,100 .
As for tax powers , a scheme like this would prove all the more effective in attracting people if the individuals taking advantage of the ‘ nomad visas ’ were able to deduct the cost of relocation from their taxes .
Better yet , some form of convertible grant could be offered to cover the cost of relocation @ @ @ @ @ @ @ repaid if the visa-holder leaves Northern Ireland before a certain period of time-in-residence has elapsed .
And in the latter case , the relocation to Northern Ireland could be further sweetened with a significant tax break , say , during the first year of residence .
The world has changed .
And we are never going back .
But as with all change , there is opportunity for those innovative enough to identify it and bold enough to seize it .
The only obstacle is Westminster .
The Northern Ireland Executive should begin @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that obstacle is overcome .
If you would like to get involved in # TheReset with Ulster Bank either as an individual or as part of an organisation , please do get in touch by emailing us at [ email protected ] with an idea for inclusion in a range of articles or events over September and October .

Only a handful of weeks after issuing a mandatory work-from-home order for all staff it became clear that remote work had not undermined productivity at all. If anything, productivity was up.
In mid-April this year, my business partner and I took the decision to close our offices in Washington DC. Permanently.
As more companies move to downsize their office space and shift workers permanently to work-from-home status, an opportunity exists for Northern Ireland to take the lead in the post-COVID economy.
Going to ‘the office’ every day suddenly made about as much sense as ordering the tasty menu at OX Belfast and then asking for ketchup. Sure, you could do it. But why on earth would you?
We are not alone. A recent Gartner study found that 74% of CFOs expected to move previously office-based employees remote post-COVID.
From huge high tech firms like Facebook to old school companies like Nationwide Insurance, office footprints are being dramatically reduced and staff are being told that working from home will be the norm. As Tobi Lutke, the founder and CEO of Canadian giant Shopify put it, “office centricity is over.”
Workers are on board too. A recent Gallup poll revealed that half of those working from home due to COVID would keep working remotely if it were up to them. And why not? Just take the staff at my company. On average they are each saving almost 340 hours per year by not commuting to their office each day.
Plus there are the financial savings made by individual workers, which Global Workplace Analytics puts at between $2,500 and $4,000 a year just by working remotely half of the time.
The workplace for huge numbers of people in service sector jobs is wherever they want to be. One of my colleagues is splitting their time between their home in DC, their family’s beach house in South Carolina, and another beach house in Cabo. The back and forth of in-office chat and client management has been replaced by Zoom meetings and conversations on Slack.
This new reality should act as a call to arms for Northern Ireland. With output per hour a shocking 15.6% below the UK average in 2018, the most recent year for which statistics are available, Northern Ireland consistently ranks as one of the least productive regions of the UK. Only Yorkshire and the Humber was worse.
Huge and commendable efforts have been made by the Executive over the years to attract foreign direct investment, but as the SDLP’s Matthew O’Toole recently pointed out the tendency has been to settle for investment that is low value-adding. Back-office jobs from foreign companies are not a bad thing per se, but a thriving economy they do not build.
A new approach is required. Not a replacement of that which went before, but an augmentation. To date, the focus has been on bringing jobs to Northern Ireland. To seize the opportunity of the post-COVID world, Northern Ireland should develop a plan to attract people who already have jobs elsewhere: high-income service sector professionals whose need for a home near the office has been replaced with a desire to set up home somewhere that provides their ideal lifestyle.
In short, an incredible opportunity to bring well-heeled consumers to the Northern Ireland economy is just sitting there, waiting to be seized.
The good news is that Northern Ireland has a huge amount to offer this new breed of nomadic lifestyle consumer. Let us just run through the obvious things. Low cost of living. Access to a range of incredible no-fee schools at both primary and secondary levels. Some of the most stunning outdoors in the world that are a short drive from even the centre of Belfast.
A restaurant scene that draws deserved international acclaim. An urban lifestyle in Belfast that provides enough of the basic needs – great coffee, independent shops, arts, music, and so on – to sate the day-to-day appetite of those used to living in much larger cities. And for those who need their big-city fix, London, Paris, Berlin, and more are just short flights away.
There is a problem, though. The Northern Ireland Executive does not have the levers it needs to pull this off, because it has no control over immigration and insufficient control over taxation to provide the right incentives. Those have to be fought for and won.
To be clear, Westminster will not cede immigration to the devolved governments of the UK anytime soon. But it could create a special class of visa, not dissimilar to Estonia’s Digital Nomad Visa, that would allow remote workers to live in the UK and legally work for an employer based elsewhere.
Westminster could allocate these visas on a quota basis to the devolved governments, providing them with limited control over immigration in their own jurisdictions, while pursuing a national policy to align immigration with the new post-COVID world. Even 5,000 of these visas for Northern Ireland could have a transformative impact when you consider that net immigration in the most recent year on record was only 4,100.
As for tax powers, a scheme like this would prove all the more effective in attracting people if the individuals taking advantage of the ‘nomad visas’ were able to deduct the cost of relocation from their taxes.
Better yet, some form of convertible grant could be offered to cover the cost of relocation, with that grant having to be repaid if the visa-holder leaves Northern Ireland before a certain period of time-in-residence has elapsed.
And in the latter case, the relocation to Northern Ireland could be further sweetened with a significant tax break, say, during the first year of residence.
The world has changed. And we are never going back. But as with all change, there is opportunity for those innovative enough to identify it and bold enough to seize it. The only obstacle is Westminster. The Northern Ireland Executive should begin the hard work now to see that that obstacle is overcome.
If you would like to get involved in #TheReset with Ulster Bank either as an individual or as part of an organisation, please do get in touch by emailing us at [email protected] with an idea for inclusion in a range of articles or events over September and October.