sluggerotoole--2020-06-04--Greater vision and laser-like focus on reality are needed if we are to emerge well out of the Covid

Greater vision and laser-like focus on reality are needed if we are to emerge well out of the Covid and Brexit crises

Imposing a unenforceable quarantine on visitors to the UK from other countries with lower death rates .
Forcing MPs to vote in person to set an example for a return to work .
Even in the midst of crisis – or especially ?
– irrationality plays a great part in politics as is does in human nature generally .
Somewhere there was a germ of a point that got overtaken by time and circumstances .
The problem is each case is how to get off the hook before worse damage is done .
Brexit provides a grand example of strategy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ else behind it .
But what ’ s the point of going through all the hassle in the first place ?
The UK ’ s posture in refusing to extend the period of negotiations for EU withdrawal is explained away as the necessary preliminary of a UK declaration of independence – a position now unanimously opposed by all three devolved legislatures .
No matter that no deal would impose further damage on an economy engulfed by the Covid crisis .
Or behind the bluster perhaps there ’ s a cunning plan , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and that the EU side so far has insisted is impossible ?
The Institute of government has suggested four ways out of the Brexit deadlock with the emphasis firmly on the last • Amend the end date of the transition period in the Withdrawal Agreement .
This could be done at any point after June .
But it would almost certainly require a European Court of Justice ( ECJ ) opinion before it could be done .
• Create a new transition period , which would begin at 11pm on 31 December 2020 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ entirely new , extremely complex agreement and a lengthy ratification process .
• Include an implementation phase as part of the future relationship treaty – a period of time between the conclusion of negotiations and the treaty coming into force where the UK and EU would phase in their new trading relationship .
• Create an implementation phase to prepare for no agreement – a period of time to adapt to a no-agreement scenario in the event that UK–EU trade talks break down.. • Extending the Brexit timetable by 30 June – using @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the greatest certainty , flexibility and control over the terms of the extension .
The terms of this extension can not be imposed on the UK ; they will need to be negotiated .
The transition period could look different to what it is today : the UK could ask to opt out of some EU programmes and policies , like the common agricultural policy .
This could , in turn , reduce the UK ’ s overall budgetary contribution to the EU .
The government could also ask that the additional time @ @ @ @ @ @ @ new trading relationship , and not for negotiations .
The government should be clear that June represents its best opportunity to adjust the Brexit timetable : any last-minute requests for more time , like the Article 50 extensions , could fail simply through procedure or lack of time .
• In practice , relying on any of the other four options is a huge risk – each is politically sensitive , uncertain and/or legally complex .
Not that the EU is without sin , argues Newton Emerson , over the most contentious part @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Protocol The original sin of Brexit lies , of course , with the UK – but lying has never been restricted to Brexiteers .
Erroneous claims of breaches to the Belfast Agreement created their own needless risks to peace and the agreement ’ s institutions .
The EU ’ s approach to Northern Ireland has been dangerously cynical from the outset .
Whatever excuse there might still be for that , there is no longer any excuse for not seeing it , He goes straight to practicalities .
Four-fifths of all grocery spending @ @ @ @ @ @ @ three supermarket chains : Tesco , Sainsbury ’ s and Asda .
Tesco and Asda have one distribution centre each in the region : Tesco in the Belfast Harbour Estate and Asda by the Port of Larne… In theory , an average supermarket container arriving in Northern Ireland faces European Union compliance costs of anywhere between £6,000 ( a third of its value ) and £100,000 .
Even the lower estimate would be ruinous..
Many nationalists in Northern Ireland will think a tight sea border heralds an all-Ireland economy and political unity , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ forgets the sea border runs all the way down the Irish Sea .
If retailers in Northern Ireland can not stock their shelves economically from Britain , they can not do so via the Republic… Without a trade deal , the Republic would face a difficult adjustment of its own .
In the end , expecting the UK to voluntarily disrupt its food supply for the EU ’ s paperwork is a political unicorn .
If the sea border is unworkable , containers will be waved through at Belfast and checkpoints will go @ @ @ @ @ @ @ nobody ’ s interest in Ireland to see this happen , yet Brussels is prepared to play games with the scenario Perhaps Newton ’ s examples are a little too easy ?
Food shipments to supermarkets are hardly the thorniest problem .
However his down to earth examples conjour up both a nightmare of failure and a vision of ideal light touch regulation , which the British side are propagating for political advantage .
If only the other problems could be wished away .
The grandest vision of a world of free trade @ @ @ @ @ @ @ playing field , is offered in the Irish News by Willie McCarter who in his time has clocked up more experience than most in Ireland of cross border , European and US investment and trading .
It is time for radical action by the UK and the EU .
A massive free trade area comprising the US , the UK and the EU would seriously underpin the recovery from the pandemic recession .
Much of the ground work on a free trade area has already been done between the US and the UK @ @ @ @ @ @ @ could be concluded within two years .
During these talks he suggests the EU and UK could conduct parallel negotiations to establish a long-term agreement .
In the long term , the UK could become a “ special ” part of the EU single market and customs union with current arrangements continuing in perpetuity .
“ The UK would have to observe the rules of the EU single market and customs union .
However , since the UK would then be a special part of the single market and customs union , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ might apply to the UK .
Among other conditions , there could be “ free labour movement by EU citizens ” but not immigration “ surges ” and that the UK subscribe ten billion euro per year to the EU .
This is no time for the UK and EU to be negotiating under severe time constraints by video when so many jobs and livelihoods are at severe risk.
” As I say , if only…

David Frost, UK, and Michel Barnier, EU, chief negotiators
Imposing a unenforceable quarantine on visitors to the UK from other countries with lower death rates. Forcing MPs to vote in person to set an example for a return to work. Even in the midst of crisis – or especially? – irrationality plays a great part in politics as is does in human nature generally. Somewhere there was a germ of a point that got overtaken by time and circumstances. The problem is each case is how to get off the hook before worse damage is done.
Brexit provides a grand example of strategy so irrational that there must be something else behind it. But what’s the point of going through all the hassle in the first place? The UK’s posture in refusing to extend the period of negotiations for EU withdrawal is explained away as the necessary preliminary of a UK declaration of independence – a position now unanimously opposed by all three devolved legislatures . No matter that no deal would impose further damage on an economy engulfed by the Covid crisis. Or behind the bluster perhaps there’s a cunning plan, the frankly special deal Britain is angling for and that the EU side so far has insisted is impossible?
The Institute of government has suggested four ways out of the Brexit deadlock with the emphasis firmly on the last
Amend the end date of the transition period in the Withdrawal Agreement. This could be done at any point after June. But it would almost certainly require a European Court of Justice (ECJ) opinion before it could be done. Create a new transition period, which would begin at 11pm on 31 December 2020. But this would mean striking an entirely new, extremely complex agreement and a lengthy ratification process. Include an implementation phase as part of the future relationship treaty – a period of time between the conclusion of negotiations and the treaty coming into force where the UK and EU would phase in their new trading relationship. Create an implementation phase to prepare for no agreement – a period of time to adapt to a no-agreement scenario in the event that UK–EU trade talks break down..
Extending the Brexit timetable by 30 June – using the Withdrawal Agreement – offers the government the greatest certainty, flexibility and control over the terms of the extension. The terms of this extension cannot be imposed on the UK; they will need to be negotiated. The transition period could look different to what it is today: the UK could ask to opt out of some EU programmes and policies, like the common agricultural policy. This could, in turn, reduce the UK’s overall budgetary contribution to the EU. The government could also ask that the additional time be used for practical preparations for the new trading relationship, and not for negotiations. The government should be clear that June represents its best opportunity to adjust the Brexit timetable: any last-minute requests for more time, like the Article 50 extensions, could fail simply through procedure or lack of time.
In practice, relying on any of the other four options is a huge risk – each is politically sensitive, uncertain and/or legally complex.
Not that the EU is without sin, argues Newton Emerson, over the most contentious part of the withdrawal agreement, our own Protocol
The original sin of Brexit lies, of course, with the UK – but lying has never been restricted to Brexiteers. Erroneous claims of breaches to the Belfast Agreement created their own needless risks to peace and the agreement’s institutions. The EU’s approach to Northern Ireland has been dangerously cynical from the outset. Whatever excuse there might still be for that, there is no longer any excuse for not seeing it,
He goes straight to practicalities.
Four-fifths of all grocery spending in Northern Ireland takes place in just three supermarket chains: Tesco, Sainsbury’s and Asda. Tesco and Asda have one distribution centre each in the region: Tesco in the Belfast Harbour Estate and Asda by the Port of Larne…
In theory, an average supermarket container arriving in Northern Ireland faces European Union compliance costs of anywhere between £6,000 (a third of its value) and £100,000. Even the lower estimate would be ruinous..
Many nationalists in Northern Ireland will think a tight sea border heralds an all-Ireland economy and political unity, which would serve unionists right. This forgets the sea border runs all the way down the Irish Sea. If retailers in Northern Ireland cannot stock their shelves economically from Britain, they cannot do so via the Republic… Without a trade deal, the Republic would face a difficult adjustment of its own.
In the end, expecting the UK to voluntarily disrupt its food supply for the EU’s paperwork is a political unicorn. If the sea border is unworkable, containers will be waved through at Belfast and checkpoints will go up in Dundalk. It is in nobody’s interest in Ireland to see this happen, yet Brussels is prepared to play games with the scenario
Perhaps Newton’s examples are a little too easy? Food shipments to supermarkets are hardly the thorniest problem. However his down to earth examples conjour up both a nightmare of failure and a vision of ideal light touch regulation, which the British side are propagating for political advantage. If only the other problems could be wished away.
The grandest vision of a world of free trade with its inevitable qualification, a level playing field, is offered in the Irish News by Willie McCarter who in his time has clocked up more experience than most in Ireland of cross border, European and US investment and trading.
It is time for radical action by the UK and the EU. A massive free trade area comprising the US, the UK and the EU would seriously underpin the recovery from the pandemic recession.
Much of the ground work on a free trade area has already been done between the US and the UK and suggested talks on the three-way agreement could be concluded within two years.
During these talks he suggests the EU and UK could conduct parallel negotiations to establish a long-term agreement.
In the long term, the UK could become a “special” part of the EU single market and customs union with current arrangements continuing in perpetuity.
“The UK would have to observe the rules of the EU single market and customs union. However, since the UK would then be a special part of the single market and customs union, the EU might agree that some special conditions might apply to the UK.
Among other conditions, there could be “free labour movement by EU citizens” but not immigration “surges” and that the UK subscribe ten billion euro per year to the EU.
This is no time for the UK and EU to be negotiating under severe time constraints by video when so many jobs and livelihoods are at severe risk.”
As I say, if only…


sluggerotoole--2020-06-05--The UK now has more daily deaths from Covid than the rest of the entire EU put together…

“ The UK now has more daily deaths from Covid than the rest of the entire EU put together.
” @ @ @ @ @ @ nicholaswatt talks us through the latest # coronavirus data

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sluggerotoole--2020-06-05--Is Trump a narcissist?

Is Trump a narcissist?

In the last few days , as America teetered on the brink of social meltdown , Joe Biden made a speech rounding on the President and suggesting his “ narcissism ” as a reason for Trump ’ s penchant for creating division .
Narcissists get such a bad press and I have often wonder if they are over represented in political classes .
Yet most of us , including Joe Biden , don ’ t really appreciate or understand what a narcissist is .
They are much more complex and infinitely more interesting than the stereotype of someone pathetically and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , in my social circle for over 30 years , a pompous , irritating , self-opinionated git at the best of times , annoyed me so much recently that I vowed never be in his company again and when I confided this to another friend she suggested if I really wanted to understand him , and my emotions towards him , I should read about narcissism .
I found a fascinating subject particularly its toxic manifestation Narcissistic Personality Disorder ( NPD ) .
We are all , to some degree , narcissistic , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for our self-esteem , so important in grounding our security in what is a very unpredictable and dangerous world .
Within the population there is a normal distribution of narcissistic traits , some have very little and that in itself can bring its own challenges as they see themselves as useless and inconsequential .
At the other end of this spectrum are those who are so narcissistic – the ones psychologist diagnosed with NPD – that it impedes them socially , ethically and morally and , ironically , even when they know they @ @ @ @ @ @ @ seeking help and making the changes they need .
It is said that narcissists don ’ t learn from their mistakes and that ’ s because they never get past the first step which is admitting they have made one .
Remind you of anyone ?
Those who populate the wedge at the lower right-hand side of the normal distribution curve can be downright evil ; think Adolph Hitler , Anders Breivik and Jimmy Savile .
Three main characteristics define the narcissistic personality ; exploitation of others , entitlement and lack of empathy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are to a degree but the narcissist suffers particularly from grandiosity and has such a confidence of his superiority and an expectation of special treatment often asking when denied “ Do you not know who I am ?
” And where we can all deal with and forgive some pomposity the narcissist will continue to demean , sully and belittle others in their grab for their God given right to be better than the rest .
So they shamelessly use others for personal gain and after using and abusing can often callously move @ @ @ @ @ @ @ impact their actions .
Power and success is their fantasy copper-fastened by a perception of unique superiority and off course their elite status .
They have a need for continued admiration for their deeds and achievements .
They are viciously envious of others and will for example spend excessively to impress that they are indeed better than the rest .
The experts are unclear how narcissists got this way they are .
What is it in their genes or in their nurture that created these monsters ?
A plausible theory suggests attachment insecurity @ @ @ @ @ @ @ they can trust so they become the hero of their life journey , only they can succeed and to do this they exaggerate their skills and accomplishments .
They are totally self-absorbed , hogging the conversation and opting out if it ’ s not about them .
They can be violently intolerant of anyone with a contradictory view .
Interestingly , they are well known for keeping themselves to themselves and this is because if they spend too much time in the same company they might be found out as a key to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ humiliation at all costs .
Some psychologists suggest that in childhood the narcissist suffered a painful humiliation at the hands of someone they really trusted .
In my readings I came across a questionnaire developed by a clinical psychologist and on answering a series of questions produces a personal score .
Scores range from zero to 40 where zero is not an ounce of narcissism and 40 is up there with O.J .
Simpson and Rodrigo Duterte .
I wouldn ’ t recommend doing this questionnaire as I scored 36 so it ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ – Caricature ” by DonkeyHotey is licensed under CC BY

In the last few days, as America teetered on the brink of social meltdown, Joe Biden made a speech rounding on the President and suggesting his “narcissism” as a reason for Trump’s penchant for creating division. Narcissists get such a bad press and I have often wonder if they are over represented in political classes. Yet most of us, including Joe Biden, don’t really appreciate or understand what a narcissist is. They are much more complex and infinitely more interesting than the stereotype of someone pathetically and obsessively in love with themselves. Someone, in my social circle for over 30 years, a pompous, irritating, self-opinionated git at the best of times, annoyed me so much recently that I vowed never be in his company again and when I confided this to another friend she suggested if I really wanted to understand him, and my emotions towards him, I should read about narcissism. I found a fascinating subject particularly its toxic manifestation Narcissistic Personality Disorder (NPD).
We are all, to some degree, narcissistic, indeed it’s a necessary bulwark for our self-esteem, so important in grounding our security in what is a very unpredictable and dangerous world. Within the population there is a normal distribution of narcissistic traits, some have very little and that in itself can bring its own challenges as they see themselves as useless and inconsequential. At the other end of this spectrum are those who are so narcissistic – the ones psychologist diagnosed with NPD – that it impedes them socially, ethically and morally and, ironically, even when they know they have a problem, it stops them seeking help and making the changes they need. It is said that narcissists don’t learn from their mistakes and that’s because they never get past the first step which is admitting they have made one. Remind you of anyone? Those who populate the wedge at the lower right-hand side of the normal distribution curve can be downright evil; think Adolph Hitler, Anders Breivik and Jimmy Savile.
Three main characteristics define the narcissistic personality; exploitation of others, entitlement and lack of empathy. Oh dear, there we all are to a degree but the narcissist suffers particularly from grandiosity and has such a confidence of his superiority and an expectation of special treatment often asking when denied “Do you not know who I am?” And where we can all deal with and forgive some pomposity the narcissist will continue to demean, sully and belittle others in their grab for their God given right to be better than the rest. So they shamelessly use others for personal gain and after using and abusing can often callously move on with no real sense of the impact their actions. Power and success is their fantasy copper-fastened by a perception of unique superiority and off course their elite status. They have a need for continued admiration for their deeds and achievements. They are viciously envious of others and will for example spend excessively to impress that they are indeed better than the rest.
The experts are unclear how narcissists got this way they are. What is it in their genes or in their nurture that created these monsters? A plausible theory suggests attachment insecurity in childhood; they have no one they can trust so they become the hero of their life journey, only they can succeed and to do this they exaggerate their skills and accomplishments. They are totally self-absorbed, hogging the conversation and opting out if it’s not about them. They can be violently intolerant of anyone with a contradictory view. Interestingly, they are well known for keeping themselves to themselves and this is because if they spend too much time in the same company they might be found out as a key to their thinking is, they must avoid humiliation at all costs. Some psychologists suggest that in childhood the narcissist suffered a painful humiliation at the hands of someone they really trusted.
In my readings I came across a questionnaire developed by a clinical psychologist and on answering a series of questions produces a personal score. Scores range from zero to 40 where zero is not an ounce of narcissism and 40 is up there with O.J. Simpson and Rodrigo Duterte. I wouldn’t recommend doing this questionnaire as I scored 36 so it’s clearly rubbish.
The White House made a highlight reel to celebrate Trump’s heroic walk across the street for his bible photo op… pic.twitter.com/x9mjX0QpFb — Jimmy Kimmel Live (@JimmyKimmelLive) June 3, 2020
“Donald Trump – Caricature” by DonkeyHotey is licensed under CC BY


sluggerotoole--2020-06-05--With the R number across the UK and Ireland less than one, what lessons can be learned from the Unit

With the R number across the UK and Ireland less than one, what lessons can be learned from the United States on re-opening safely?

The Northern Ireland Executive announced that there will be further loosening of lockdown restrictions next week , following the Department of Health announcing that the R number ( the average number of people an infected person will pass the virus to ) in Northern Ireland is currently between 0.7 and 0.9 .
It appears that R is holding steady at less than one across the UK and Ireland .
The chart above shows estimated values for R across the Republic of Ireland , Northern Ireland , Scotland , Wales and the English regions until the end of May ( it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ UK before the middle of February ) .
The calculation looks at case numbers over a rolling seven-day period .
From the estimated regional R numbers , London was the first region to have R rise above 1 , followed by the South East and the West Midlands of England shortly afterwards .
Scotland and Northern Ireland appeared to be the last places where R rose above 1 , in the week leading up to the 10th of March .
Massive spikes in the R number can be seen in the South West @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and in Wales around the middle of March , suggesting that there could have been “ super spreader ” events around these times in these areas .
It can be seen from the data that the R number started to fall when lockdown restrictions were implemented across the UK and Ireland .
It took around a month from the introduction of restrictions for the R number to fall below one , where it has ( except for a brief period in mid-May in Wales ) remained ever since .
The data seems @ @ @ @ @ @ @ what they were intended to do ; the R number started to fall as soon as they were introduced and now seems to be holding steady at less than one .
Whilst the events of March 2020 were shocking and unprecedented , from a policymaking perspective the correct course of action ( implementing lockdown measures ) was clear enough and had widespread public support .
The choices to be made from here onwards , as tentative steps are made towards re-opening the economy , will be much more difficult .
It was always @ @ @ @ @ @ @ could not be sustained forever , and that extraordinarily difficult choices need to be made to balance protecting lives and protecting livelihoods .
We simply do not have enough data and information to know how safe it is , for example , to reopen schools .
Or restaurants .
There is now enough data to suggest that COVID-19 transmission is highly over-dispersed , i.e .
transmission is caused by a comparatively small number of infected people infecting a large number of people .
This means that randomness and luck will play a significant @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are implemented .
We lack data on the relative safety of different re-opening measures .
Also , we are dealing with “ fat tails ” .
One superspreading event , such as a house party , could infect many people and cause a cascading chain of infections that causes the R number to rise back above 1 .
One could scarcely imagine a more difficult problem for policymakers to address .
Still , there is now enough data on regions that have reopened to provide some potential insight on what re-opening might bring @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the United States , where there has been a zeal to re-open the economy that has not been seen in other developed economies that have been badly impacted by the virus .
For example , take the state of Wisconsin .
The chart below shows how cases ( on the left hand side ) , and the associated R number ( estimated using the EpiEstim app ) , have progressed since March .
Wisconsin is an interesting case .
The state ’ s Democratic governor was extremely quick to react to the epidemic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of emergency on the fourth day of there being new cases in the state ( excluding one isolated case in January ) , when there were only seven cases in the state .
Schools were closed the next day , with a stay at home order introduced eleven days after that .
The R number is calculated over seven days , which is why the boxes in the chart above are seven days wide .
The R number in Wisconsin dropped below 1 around the 13th of April , well before R was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Ireland .
However , following determined efforts by Republicans in the state legislature , the state supreme court ruled by a 4-3 ruling that the stay at home order was unconstitutional .
With the state effectively re-opened , the R number has drifted above 1 .
There were a record 665 new cases on the 3rd of June .
By comparison , the Republic of Ireland , with a comparable population had 47 , up from 10 the previous day .
The chart below shows how case numbers and the estimated R number @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the state of Texas .
Texas has re-opened gradually , which can provide some insight into how R has changed in response to different policy decisions , albeit under different circumstances than the UK and Ireland because R never really dropped significantly below 1 at any point .
As is the case elsewhere , the R number dropped when the remain home executive order was implemented .
When the order expired the R number increased above 1 , and whilst it has fallen below 1 since then it appears to have increased @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the reopening of offices and childcare , and bars and restaurants ( albeit at reduced capacity ) .
The 1,885 new cases identified in the Lone Star State on the 2nd of June was a new record .
There are caveats with the case data in the United States .
For example , the number of tests has increased over time , so some of the increase in cases could be attributable to this .
However , the timing of R increasing at the same time as reopening policies does suggest that there @ @ @ @ @ @ @ restrictions and the R number increasing .
Data from other parts of the world that have loosened lockdown restrictions are a key piece of the puzzle for policymakers seeking a safe way to restart the economy , alongside other policies such as rigorous contact tracing , universal mask wearing , and other unconventional data gathering efforts such as sewage monitoring .
Many difficult choices will have to be made in the months ahead in the battle against this terrible disease .

The Northern Ireland Executive announced that there will be further loosening of lockdown restrictions next week, following the Department of Health announcing that the R number (the average number of people an infected person will pass the virus to) in Northern Ireland is currently between 0.7 and 0.9.
It appears that R is holding steady at less than one across the UK and Ireland. The chart above shows estimated values for R across the Republic of Ireland, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales and the English regions until the end of May (it excludes the sporadic cases found in the UK before the middle of February). The calculation looks at case numbers over a rolling seven-day period.
From the estimated regional R numbers, London was the first region to have R rise above 1, followed by the South East and the West Midlands of England shortly afterwards. Scotland and Northern Ireland appeared to be the last places where R rose above 1, in the week leading up to the 10th of March.
Massive spikes in the R number can be seen in the South West of England around the start of March, and in Wales around the middle of March, suggesting that there could have been “super spreader” events around these times in these areas.
It can be seen from the data that the R number started to fall when lockdown restrictions were implemented across the UK and Ireland. It took around a month from the introduction of restrictions for the R number to fall below one, where it has (except for a brief period in mid-May in Wales) remained ever since.
The data seems to confirm that the lockdown measures did what they were intended to do; the R number started to fall as soon as they were introduced and now seems to be holding steady at less than one.
Whilst the events of March 2020 were shocking and unprecedented, from a policymaking perspective the correct course of action (implementing lockdown measures) was clear enough and had widespread public support.
The choices to be made from here onwards, as tentative steps are made towards re-opening the economy, will be much more difficult. It was always going to be the case that lockdown could not be sustained forever, and that extraordinarily difficult choices need to be made to balance protecting lives and protecting livelihoods.
We simply do not have enough data and information to know how safe it is, for example, to reopen schools. Or restaurants. There is now enough data to suggest that COVID-19 transmission is highly over-dispersed, i.e. transmission is caused by a comparatively small number of infected people infecting a large number of people.
This means that randomness and luck will play a significant role in determining outcomes as re-opening measures are implemented. We lack data on the relative safety of different re-opening measures.
Also, we are dealing with “fat tails”. One superspreading event, such as a house party, could infect many people and cause a cascading chain of infections that causes the R number to rise back above 1. One could scarcely imagine a more difficult problem for policymakers to address.
Still, there is now enough data on regions that have reopened to provide some potential insight on what re-opening might bring. Much of this will come from the United States, where there has been a zeal to re-open the economy that has not been seen in other developed economies that have been badly impacted by the virus.
For example, take the state of Wisconsin. The chart below shows how cases (on the left hand side), and the associated R number (estimated using the EpiEstim app), have progressed since March.
Wisconsin is an interesting case. The state’s Democratic governor was extremely quick to react to the epidemic in the state, calling a state of emergency on the fourth day of there being new cases in the state (excluding one isolated case in January), when there were only seven cases in the state. Schools were closed the next day, with a stay at home order introduced eleven days after that. The R number is calculated over seven days, which is why the boxes in the chart above are seven days wide.
The R number in Wisconsin dropped below 1 around the 13th of April, well before R was below one anywhere in the UK or Ireland. However, following determined efforts by Republicans in the state legislature, the state supreme court ruled by a 4-3 ruling that the stay at home order was unconstitutional.
With the state effectively re-opened, the R number has drifted above 1. There were a record 665 new cases on the 3rd of June. By comparison, the Republic of Ireland, with a comparable population had 47, up from 10 the previous day.
The chart below shows how case numbers and the estimated R number has changed over the last three months in the state of Texas.
Texas has re-opened gradually, which can provide some insight into how R has changed in response to different policy decisions, albeit under different circumstances than the UK and Ireland because R never really dropped significantly below 1 at any point.
As is the case elsewhere, the R number dropped when the remain home executive order was implemented. When the order expired the R number increased above 1, and whilst it has fallen below 1 since then it appears to have increased above 1 in the last week following the reopening of offices and childcare, and bars and restaurants (albeit at reduced capacity). The 1,885 new cases identified in the Lone Star State on the 2nd of June was a new record.
There are caveats with the case data in the United States. For example, the number of tests has increased over time, so some of the increase in cases could be attributable to this. However, the timing of R increasing at the same time as reopening policies does suggest that there could be a causal link between relaxing restrictions and the R number increasing.
Data from other parts of the world that have loosened lockdown restrictions are a key piece of the puzzle for policymakers seeking a safe way to restart the economy, alongside other policies such as rigorous contact tracing, universal mask wearing, and other unconventional data gathering efforts such as sewage monitoring.
Many difficult choices will have to be made in the months ahead in the battle against this terrible disease.


sluggerotoole--2020-06-05--From Northern Ireland to the US, from 1968 to today, the camera is a powerful catalyst for change

The horrific image of policemen in Minneapolis caught in the act of slowly choking George Floyd to death has prompted the thought : how different would have been the course of the Troubles if they ’ d been waged under the eyes of 24/7 live news coverage and video cameras with sound on mobile phones ?
Would a whole race of citizen journalists , citizen terrorists and citizen security forces have been created all videoing each other like crazy ?
Might violence amounting to civil war have spread like wildflre ?
Would searing pictures have acted a deterrent against some @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sergeants after Bloody Sunday ?
Furious blame games and whataboutery would have been the norm as every day ’ s outrage was drowned out by the next day ’ s atrocity until perhaps case hardened to the point of exhaustion – and maybe to earlier resolution .
From the early 1970s the broadcasters ’ case for showing running events ( although never live in those days of film before live video ) , was that we were or tried to be arbiters for truth against lies and the ravages of the grapevine .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ Scarman inquiry of 1970 into an attack on children at Unity Flats ( a 1960s Catholic enclave at the bottom of the Shankill , long gone ) that never happened .
The limitations of the evidence before the camera ’ s eyes were actually severe .
The camera didn ’ t lie but the bigger truth could have been round the corner .
As time progressed most killings were sudden or silent ambushes , captured only as aftermath .
As the Troubles seemed never ending I began to imagine them as a sort @ @ @ @ @ @ @ appeared to be real life action was an illusion , in the form of a gigantic scripted fiction filmed in an enormous plastic bubble off shore in real time , for the entertainment of millions of reality TV fans .
And yet the power of the image is as potent as ever .
The roar of pain captured by an RTE cameraman as the police commander in Derry jammed his blackthorn into Pat Douglas ’ s groin in Duke St on 5 October 1968 , can be seen as the moment of ignition @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a cycle of violence that lasted 30 years .
Of one thing I ’ m sure .
Journalists would have come under constant attack as the rhythm of the Troubles took hold .
In those simpler days they were not identifiable from their flak jackets screaming “ press.
” Extreme law and order zealots argue that the presence of camera incites violence .
This is hard to refute after a line is crossed and protest escalates into attack .
The defence is that the camera should not be raised until the incident is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ nothing to do with the looting and burning when the camera takes on the same role as CCTV as an incriminator .
In the last few days when protest has swept through 49 American cities , the camera has been a powerful force for change in ways not always intended by the actor .
It captured what may turn out to be the defining image of Donald Trump posing grotesquely as Law ’ n Orderman and brandishing a Bible outside the “ President ’ s Church ” near the White House .
It @ @ @ @ @ @ @ police and National Guard by exposing further acts of unprovoked violence and those occasions when they bowed the knee and laid down their shields in solidarity with the demonstrators .
Images like these remind me of the power of the Shah of Iran draining away before our eyes in 1979 .
The same may be happening to Trump today .
The United States is sorely divided but full blown revolution requiring military intervention is not an issue .
Society knows it ’ s really in trouble when violence happens suddenly with no incidental @ @ @ @ @ @ @ That is called terrorism and it is thankfully absent from the current mix , despite the pervasive presence of guns and the underlying throb of violence in American life today .

The horrific image of policemen in Minneapolis caught in the act of slowly choking George Floyd to death has prompted the thought : how different would have been the course of the Troubles if they’d been waged under the eyes of 24/7 live news coverage and video cameras with sound on mobile phones? Would a whole race of citizen journalists, citizen terrorists and citizen security forces have been created all videoing each other like crazy? Might violence amounting to civil war have spread like wildflre? Would searing pictures have acted a deterrent against some of the worst excesses or as recruiting sergeants after Bloody Sunday? Furious blame games and whataboutery would have been the norm as every day’s outrage was drowned out by the next day’s atrocity until perhaps case hardened to the point of exhaustion – and maybe to earlier resolution.
From the early 1970s the broadcasters’ case for showing running events (although never live in those days of film before live video), was that we were or tried to be arbiters for truth against lies and the ravages of the grapevine. I remember days of evidence at the Scarman inquiry of 1970 into an attack on children at Unity Flats ( a 1960s Catholic enclave at the bottom of the Shankill, long gone) that never happened.
The limitations of the evidence before the camera’s eyes were actually severe. The camera didn’t lie but the bigger truth could have been round the corner. As time progressed most killings were sudden or silent ambushes, captured only as aftermath.
As the Troubles seemed never ending I began to imagine them as a sort of Truman Show, in which what appeared to be real life action was an illusion, in the form of a gigantic scripted fiction filmed in an enormous plastic bubble off shore in real time, for the entertainment of millions of reality TV fans.
And yet the power of the image is as potent as ever. The roar of pain captured by an RTE cameraman as the police commander in Derry jammed his blackthorn into Pat Douglas’s groin in Duke St on 5 October 1968, can be seen as the moment of ignition from grievance into protest and thence to a cycle of violence that lasted 30 years.
Of one thing I’m sure. Journalists would have come under constant attack as the rhythm of the Troubles took hold. In those simpler days they were not identifiable from their flak jackets screaming “press.”
Extreme law and order zealots argue that the presence of camera incites violence. This is hard to refute after a line is crossed and protest escalates into attack. The defence is that the camera should not be raised until the incident is well under way. But that has nothing to do with the looting and burning when the camera takes on the same role as CCTV as an incriminator.
In the last few days when protest has swept through 49 American cities, the camera has been a powerful force for change in ways not always intended by the actor. It captured what may turn out to be the defining image of Donald Trump posing grotesquely as Law’n Orderman and brandishing a Bible outside the “President’s Church” near the White House. It has surely temporised the conduct of the police and National Guard by exposing further acts of unprovoked violence and those occasions when they bowed the knee and laid down their shields in solidarity with the demonstrators. Images like these remind me of the power of the Shah of Iran draining away before our eyes in 1979. The same may be happening to Trump today.
The United States is sorely divided but full blown revolution requiring military intervention is not an issue. Society knows it’s really in trouble when violence happens suddenly with no incidental witnesses or cameras immediately on hand. That is called terrorism and it is thankfully absent from the current mix, despite the pervasive presence of guns and the underlying throb of violence in American life today.


sluggerotoole--2020-06-05--An “act of political will” needed to end the road blocking of victims pensions over eligibility…

Alex Kane is on fire in the Irish News today on the subject of payments to victims that was promised back in December 2014 , under the Stormont House Agreement .
He quotes from a letter he received after making an appearance on GMU at the time .
Hard not to see what he means .
Six years later , and still nothing .
Now , oddly enough the First Minister said on Good Morning Ulster she is ready to designate the Justice department but needs the deputy First Minister to do the same .
So what ’ s the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ some dispute over money , but the British government has said that that should not hold up making practical arrangements in order to make the payments when the quantum is agreed .
Julian O ’ Neill reports that the scheme was due to open on 29 May .
Sinn Féin MLA ( and convicted bomber ) Gerry Kelly said , “ it is the British government who have brought in these regulations , without consultation , to be discriminatory , and all they are interested in is to protect one section of victims.
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ talking about is the proposition that anyone a sentence more than two and a half years .
Victims Commissioner Judith Thompson explains : “ There is a requirement that anyone who has been sentenced – not served but sentenced – to more than two and half years in prison , go before a judge-led panel which will make a decision on whether it ’ s appropriate for them to get this payment or not.
” That ’ s a compromise on the original proposal .
It does not stop such folks from getting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that perpetrators who also consider themselves to be victims have to explain why they should get the money first .
Turns out that when you read Lost Lives , what Gerry refers to as “ one section ” of victims turns out to be a very large subset of those actually killed , with just 395 republican and just 167 loyalist paramilitaries killed in the troubles .
The vast majority of the rest are the “ sidelined and forgotten ” .
Still being sidelined , but hopefully no longer being forgotten by the @ @ @ @ @ @

Alex Kane is on fire in the Irish News today on the subject of payments to victims that was promised back in December 2014, under the Stormont House Agreement. He quotes from a letter he received after making an appearance on GMU at the time.
“I don’t expect anything to come from this. We aren’t front and centre. We are sidelined and forgotten. Most of us will die before the parties have resolved it and I wouldn’t be surprised if that’s exactly what they want.”
Hard not to see what he means. Six years later, and still nothing. Now, oddly enough the First Minister said on Good Morning Ulster she is ready to designate the Justice department but needs the deputy First Minister to do the same.
So what’s the problem? Well, there has been some dispute over money, but the British government has said that that should not hold up making practical arrangements in order to make the payments when the quantum is agreed.
Julian O’Neill reports that the scheme was due to open on 29 May.
Sinn Féin MLA (and convicted bomber) Gerry Kelly said, “it is the British government who have brought in these regulations, without consultation, to be discriminatory, and all they are interested in is to protect one section of victims.”
The section of victims Gerry is talking about is the proposition that anyone a sentence more than two and a half years. Victims Commissioner Judith Thompson explains:
“There is a requirement that anyone who has been sentenced – not served but sentenced – to more than two and half years in prison, go before a judge-led panel which will make a decision on whether it’s appropriate for them to get this payment or not.”
That’s a compromise on the original proposal. It does not stop such folks from getting the pension, but it does mean that perpetrators who also consider themselves to be victims have to explain why they should get the money first.
Turns out that when you read Lost Lives, what Gerry refers to as “one section” of victims turns out to be a very large subset of those actually killed, with just 395 republican and just 167 loyalist paramilitaries killed in the troubles.
The vast majority of the rest are the “sidelined and forgotten”. Still being sidelined, but hopefully no longer being forgotten by the rest of the Executive parties?
Update: The Irish News reports: Sinn Féin isolated over Troubles pensions as other parties say `victims have waited long enough’.


sluggerotoole--2020-06-06--Diane Dodds calls for faster movement on opening shops, cafes and, wait for it, pubs…

Interesting development ( so far ignored by BBC Online News ) .
DUP Minister Diana Dodds calls for movement on @ @ @ @ @ restaurants and bars .
In the republic ’ s plan , these outlets must wait @ @ @ @ @ be rapidly telescoped .
Whatever the reason , new infection rates are now minuscule across @ @ @ @ @ testing is not perfect , but the Northern Ireland test and trace regime is a @ @ @ @ @ GB .
Is Mrs Dodds pushing at a half-open door here ?
Photo by Artem @ @ @ @ @

Interesting development (so far ignored by BBC Online News). DUP Minister Diana Dodds calls for movement on opening shops, cafes, restaurants and bars. In the republic’s plan, these outlets must wait till August but that may be rapidly telescoped.
Whatever the reason, new infection rates are now minuscule across Northern Ireland:
New #coronavirus infections by NI Council Area: Antrim/Newtownabbey 1
Ards/North Down 1
Armagh B&C 0
Belfast 0
Causeway C&G 1
Derry/Strabane 0
Fermanagh/Omagh 0
Lisburn/Castlereagh 0
Mid/East Antrim 0
Mid Ulster 0
Newry M&D 0 3/1098 tests positive. 0 deaths recorded past 24h. — Ian James Parsley (@ianjamesparsley) June 5, 2020
Yes, testing is not perfect, but the Northern Ireland test and trace regime is a lot more advanced than in GB. Is Mrs Dodds pushing at a half-open door here?
Photo by Artem Beliaikin is licensed under CC0


sluggerotoole--2020-06-06--Caring for each other in a time of lockdown…

The global crisis wrought by the Coronavirus has made us aware of some of the most important things in life : good health , effective healthcare , supportive relationships , and wise governance .
Self-isolation and fear have shown us just how much we depend on companionship for strength and well-being , while our dependence on the dedication of those who care for us when we are sick , frail , or aged has never been more evident .
Perhaps it is time to invoke the wisdom of the locally born philosopher and teacher , Francis Hutcheson : three centuries @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a ‘ moral sense ’ that resides in each one of us .
He argued that this ‘ moral sense ’ is what motivates us to take an interest in and care for one another .
Hutcheson believed that unless we exercise this innate capacity for love and kindness , we will be much the poorer for it .
What is more , unless a society enables its citizens to offer and receive that generosity , it is doing them a disservice .
So , who was Francis Hutcheson ?
Born in 1694 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was educated in a ‘ dissenting academy ’ in Killyleagh which catered for the needs of Presbyterians .
He studied divinity in Glasgow then returned to Ireland , where he taught in Dublin during the 1720s when he produced some of his best work as a writer of philosophy .
After this , he travelled back to Glasgow University and became an exceptional teacher and mentor as well as an influential scholar who helped lay the foundations of the progressive period known as the Scottish Enlightenment .
Among his most illustrious students was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ adorns our £20 banknotes .
Throughout his writings , Hutcheson worked hard to convince his readers and students that in our hearts we are not primarily motivated by self-interest or greed .
He claimed that there is a ‘ secret sense ’ – not unlike the other five senses – which ‘ influences us to the love of others.
’ He called this faculty a ‘ secret chain ’ that enables us to feel deep sympathy with others .
This often extends even to total strangers and people we have never met .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ own needs , we have a ‘ natural disposition ’ to be ‘ employed about the state of others ’ .
We often ‘ desire ’ their ‘ happiness ’ as much as our own , especially in the case of family , neighbours , colleagues and friends .
In one of his most memorable expressions , the Scots-Irish philosopher referred to this wonderful faculty as a capacity for ‘ public love.
’ Hutcheson went on to suggest that we would be miserable creatures if ‘ there were no society , no love @ @ @ @ @ @ @ who argued that a government ’ s job is to muzzle or channel our capacity for selfishness and destructiveness , Hutcheson made the case for taking love and friendship into account .
He claimed that his task was to ‘ recover the ordinary affections of men ’ - affections which are naturally benign .
And if , as Hutcheson claimed , our ‘ human nature is formed for universal love and gratitude ’ then a government that is overly focused on human competition and acquisitive individualism is inadequate and harmful .
Hutcheson ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ such bleak , materialistic assumptions is that we are all ‘ born with a view to the general good end ’ and that this human tendency can and must be built upon for a society to flourish .
Given this capacity for everyday acts of goodness , Hutcheson bade his readers and students re-evaluate what heroism is .
He declared that it is ‘ not only the prince , the statesman , the general ’ who is ‘ capable of true heroism ’ but ‘ the hospitable neighbour…the tender husband…the affectionate parent….the cheerful @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ It is not hard to see the truth of Hutcheson ’ s insights in our time of pandemic danger .
Out of a powerful sense of ‘ public love ’ and ‘ public good ’ , medical professionals , nurses , carers , teachers , workers in the voluntary sector and thousands of others in un-glamorous but risky service jobs have continued to meet the needs of others .
We have seen heroism manifested not on a military battlefield , a sports field , or a cinema screen but in the intense @ @ @ @ @ @ @ clad in inadequate PPE or an immigrant care home worker .
Some of us have been deeply impressed by the sight of an old man raising money for the NHS by walking up and down his garden hundreds of times .
Maybe some of us have learned afresh the ancient wisdom that it ’ s not our possessions or our status but the love we give and receive that enables us to handle the bad times .
A recent survey conducted by the Cornwall-based Eden Project uncovered a huge increase in the number @ @ @ @ @ @ @ neighbours , conversing with strangers and helping others during the ‘ lockdown ’ , restoring a sense of community that many felt they had lost in recent years .
Hutcheson was too wise a man not to recognise that there is another impulse in the human heart that involves cruelty , intolerance , and exploitation .
He grew up under the tutelage of a Scottish clergyman grandfather who knew all about the bloodthirsty religious wars of the 17th century .
In the County Down where he received his earliest education , there were @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of 1641 and the bloody Williamite wars .
Maybe it was in the context of such memories that Hutcheson was aware of the need to advocating tolerance , kindness , and hope – the qualities that in a later century , President Abraham Lincoln would name as ‘ the better angels of our nature.
’ But it is not only in his emphasis on ‘ public love ’ that Hutcheson sheds light on the present moment .
He berated governments that permitted or instigated injustice and he helped promote a ‘ civil society @ @ @ @ @ @ @ well as stimulating the deep human capacity for goodness .
In an era of complacency about the slave trade the Scots-Irish philosopher spoke out vehemently against its evils .
He wrote that wherever we see injustice , we should remember that ‘ no endowment…can give a perfect right to assume power over others without their consent .
In fact , action is required to remedy the wrong , for ‘ the people have the right of defending themselves against the abuse of power.
’ For Francis Hutcheson , the ancient motto attributed to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ safety of the people is the supreme law.
’ The current health crisis has been a time for saluting human goodness but also for asking questions about the moral quality of our governance .
Hutcheson labelled those who fail to exercise that power in a wise , just , caring manner as ‘ perfidious trustees.
’ He is a philosopher with local roots and fresh , wide relevance .

The global crisis wrought by the Coronavirus has made us aware of some of the most important things in life: good health, effective healthcare, supportive relationships, and wise governance.
Self-isolation and fear have shown us just how much we depend on companionship for strength and well-being, while our dependence on the dedication of those who care for us when we are sick, frail, or aged has never been more evident.
Perhaps it is time to invoke the wisdom of the locally born philosopher and teacher, Francis Hutcheson: three centuries ago, he proposed the importance of a ‘moral sense’ that resides in each one of us. He argued that this ‘moral sense’ is what motivates us to take an interest in and care for one another.
Hutcheson believed that unless we exercise this innate capacity for love and kindness, we will be much the poorer for it. What is more, unless a society enables its citizens to offer and receive that generosity, it is doing them a disservice.
So, who was Francis Hutcheson? Born in 1694 in the vicinity of Saintfield, he was educated in a ‘dissenting academy’ in Killyleagh which catered for the needs of Presbyterians. He studied divinity in Glasgow then returned to Ireland, where he taught in Dublin during the 1720s when he produced some of his best work as a writer of philosophy.
After this, he travelled back to Glasgow University and became an exceptional teacher and mentor as well as an influential scholar who helped lay the foundations of the progressive period known as the Scottish Enlightenment. Among his most illustrious students was the economist Adam Smith, whose face adorns our £20 banknotes.
Throughout his writings, Hutcheson worked hard to convince his readers and students that in our hearts we are not primarily motivated by self-interest or greed. He claimed that there is a ‘secret sense’ – not unlike the other five senses – which ‘influences us to the love of others.’ He called this faculty a ‘secret chain’ that enables us to feel deep sympathy with others. This often extends even to total strangers and people we have never met.
Rather than being motivated mainly by our own needs, we have a ‘natural disposition’ to be ‘employed about the state of others’. We often ‘desire’ their ‘happiness’ as much as our own, especially in the case of family, neighbours, colleagues and friends. In one of his most memorable expressions, the Scots-Irish philosopher referred to this wonderful faculty as a capacity for ‘public love.’
Hutcheson went on to suggest that we would be miserable creatures if ‘there were no society, no love or friendship.’ Faced with other philosophers who argued that a government’s job is to muzzle or channel our capacity for selfishness and destructiveness, Hutcheson made the case for taking love and friendship into account. He claimed that his task was to ‘recover the ordinary affections of men’- affections which are naturally benign.
And if, as Hutcheson claimed, our ‘human nature is formed for universal love and gratitude’ then a government that is overly focused on human competition and acquisitive individualism is inadequate and harmful. Hutcheson’s poignant advice to those who make such bleak, materialistic assumptions is that we are all ‘born with a view to the general good end’ and that this human tendency can and must be built upon for a society to flourish.
Given this capacity for everyday acts of goodness, Hutcheson bade his readers and students re-evaluate what heroism is. He declared that it is ‘not only the prince, the statesman, the general’ who is ‘capable of true heroism’ but ‘the hospitable neighbour…the tender husband…the affectionate parent….the cheerful companion…the promoter of love and good understanding.’
It is not hard to see the truth of Hutcheson’s insights in our time of pandemic danger. Out of a powerful sense of ‘public love’ and ‘public good’, medical professionals, nurses, carers, teachers, workers in the voluntary sector and thousands of others in un-glamorous but risky service jobs have continued to meet the needs of others.
We have seen heroism manifested not on a military battlefield, a sports field, or a cinema screen but in the intense and often underpaid labours of a nurse clad in inadequate PPE or an immigrant care home worker. Some of us have been deeply impressed by the sight of an old man raising money for the NHS by walking up and down his garden hundreds of times.
Maybe some of us have learned afresh the ancient wisdom that it’s not our possessions or our status but the love we give and receive that enables us to handle the bad times.
A recent survey conducted by the Cornwall-based Eden Project uncovered a huge increase in the number of people who were chatting to their neighbours, conversing with strangers and helping others during the ‘lockdown’, restoring a sense of community that many felt they had lost in recent years.
Hutcheson was too wise a man not to recognise that there is another impulse in the human heart that involves cruelty, intolerance, and exploitation. He grew up under the tutelage of a Scottish clergyman grandfather who knew all about the bloodthirsty religious wars of the 17th century.
In the County Down where he received his earliest education, there were deep folk memories of the brutal rebellion of 1641 and the bloody Williamite wars. Maybe it was in the context of such memories that Hutcheson was aware of the need to advocating tolerance, kindness, and hope – the qualities that in a later century, President Abraham Lincoln would name as ‘the better angels of our nature.’
But it is not only in his emphasis on ‘public love’ that Hutcheson sheds light on the present moment. He berated governments that permitted or instigated injustice and he helped promote a ‘civil society’ which punishes wrong-doing and cruelty as well as stimulating the deep human capacity for goodness.
In an era of complacency about the slave trade the Scots-Irish philosopher spoke out vehemently against its evils. He wrote that wherever we see injustice, we should remember that ‘no endowment…can give a perfect right to assume power over others without their consent. In fact, action is required to remedy the wrong, for ‘the people have the right of defending themselves against the abuse of power.’
For Francis Hutcheson, the ancient motto attributed to Cicero still held true- that ‘the safety of the people is the supreme law.’ The current health crisis has been a time for saluting human goodness but also for asking questions about the moral quality of our governance. Hutcheson labelled those who fail to exercise that power in a wise, just, caring manner as ‘perfidious trustees.’
He is a philosopher with local roots and fresh, wide relevance.


sluggerotoole--2020-06-06--The annoyance of sales calls…

The annoyance of sales calls…

After eleven weeks of singleton lockdown I don ’ t feel it is inaccurate to say that the one thing that has kept me sane has been the telephone .
For all the kind friends and relatives who have stayed in touch by either my landline or mobile I will be eternally grateful .
There is nothing more capable of lifting a sagging spirit than the sound of a human voice .
Of course , it does depend on what it has to say… Last Tuesday I was in my kitchen thinking about nothing in particular when the telephone rang @ @ @ @ @ @ @ prefer these days as my hearing is not great and the sound is better than on my mobile .
I picked up the receiver and said , ‘ Hello ’ .
‘ Yes.
’ I said guardedly , pretty sure this was a ‘ cold ’ call about something .
His voice had that timbre and tone , a little too high pitched with a touch of ‘ creepy ’ .
He then asked me a question .
‘ I would like to know , Felicity , if you have made any plans @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as I usually do in the face of the unexpected with all sorts of things popping into my mind like – does this man know something I don ’ t know ?
Is he from some obscure clinical department catching up on un-sent diagnostic news , or have I missed an important email from my doctor ?
I am ashamed to say I answered , ‘ Er .
No.
’ ‘ Ah !
’ He said and went into a sales pitch .
I let him carry on before my slow wits gathered @ @ @ @ @ @ @ had found the ideal way of coping with cold calls without being rude and slamming the receiver down said , ‘ I am awfully sorry but I must stop you to tell you I am deaf and can not hear a single thing you are saying.
’ His ‘ spiel ’ ceased for a second or two then he simply resumed it – not louder or more slowly , if anything , a little quicker .
Hah !
I thought , he has not been trained to talk to the deaf .
Only @ @ @ @ @ @ @ mind repeating that ?
’ I said when he drew breath .
‘ I am afraid I can ’ t make out what you are talking about.
’ He began to reel off his patter again and I let him go on for quite a while as I poured myself a glass of wine .
I stopped him eventually to say once more that I was hard of hearing and could he possibly write to me about whatever he was trying to sell me ?
There was a long confused pause after which @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Could he send me an email ?
Thinking of the many totally uninvited emails I have received over the past few months regarding funerals and arranging them for myself , I was beginning to find this amusing .
‘ [ email protected ] ’ I replied .
He failed to notice that I had heard his request quite clearly .
‘ I beg your pardon ?
’ He said , ‘ I didn ’ t quite get that.
’ Oh heck , was he now playing me at my own game ?
I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ m sorry , 237 ?
’ He said .
I was now beginning to think I had a fellow ‘ deafy ’ here and a dyslexic one to boot .
I suddenly lost the will to continue talking to this person who , without knowing me or my circumstances or if I had coronavirus or terminal cancer or was in a state of deep depression , had picked up the phone and called a complete stranger to ask if they had organised their own funeral ?
How can someone , particularly in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to do this ?
The email address in this post has been made up .
Photo by Negative Space is licensed under CC0

After eleven weeks of singleton lockdown I don’t feel it is inaccurate to say that the one thing that has kept me sane has been the telephone. For all the kind friends and relatives who have stayed in touch by either my landline or mobile I will be eternally grateful. There is nothing more capable of lifting a sagging spirit than the sound of a human voice.
Of course, it does depend on what it has to say…
Last Tuesday I was in my kitchen thinking about nothing in particular when the telephone rang. It was my landline which I prefer these days as my hearing is not great and the sound is better than on my mobile. I picked up the receiver and said, ‘Hello’.
‘Is this Mrs Felicity Graham?’ A gentleman’s voice I didn’t recognise asked.
‘Yes.’ I said guardedly, pretty sure this was a ‘cold’ call about something. His voice had that timbre and tone, a little too high pitched with a touch of ‘creepy’. He then asked me a question.
‘I would like to know, Felicity, if you have made any plans for your funeral?’
I froze as I usually do in the face of the unexpected with all sorts of things popping into my mind like – does this man know something I don’t know? Is he from some obscure clinical department catching up on un-sent diagnostic news, or have I missed an important email from my doctor?
I am ashamed to say I answered, ‘Er. No.’
‘Ah!’ He said and went into a sales pitch.
I let him carry on before my slow wits gathered and then, with absolute certainty I had found the ideal way of coping with cold calls without being rude and slamming the receiver down said, ‘I am awfully sorry but I must stop you to tell you I am deaf and cannot hear a single thing you are saying.’ His ‘spiel’ ceased for a second or two then he simply resumed it – not louder or more slowly, if anything, a little quicker. Hah! I thought, he has not been trained to talk to the deaf. Only the prospective dead!
‘Would you mind repeating that?’ I said when he drew breath. ‘I am afraid I can’t make out what you are talking about.’
He began to reel off his patter again and I let him go on for quite a while as I poured myself a glass of wine. I stopped him eventually to say once more that I was hard of hearing and could he possibly write to me about whatever he was trying to sell me?
There was a long confused pause after which he asked for my email address. Could he send me an email? Thinking of the many totally uninvited emails I have received over the past few months regarding funerals and arranging them for myself, I was beginning to find this amusing.
‘[email protected]’ I replied. He failed to notice that I had heard his request quite clearly.
‘I beg your pardon?’ He said, ‘I didn’t quite get that.’ Oh heck, was he now playing me at my own game? I repeated my address.
‘felicitygraham723?’ he replied, querying again.
‘No, 372’ I replied.
‘I’m sorry, 237?’ He said. I was now beginning to think I had a fellow ‘deafy’ here and a dyslexic one to boot.
I suddenly lost the will to continue talking to this person who, without knowing me or my circumstances or if I had coronavirus or terminal cancer or was in a state of deep depression, had picked up the phone and called a complete stranger to ask if they had organised their own funeral?
How can someone, particularly in the present crisis, take it upon themselves to do this?
The email address in this post has been made up.
Photo by Negative Space is licensed under CC0


sluggerotoole--2020-06-06--Northern Ireland is about to learn the cost of lies

“ What is the cost of lies ?
” This is the question posed by Valery Legasov in the HBO mini-series Chernobyl , about the lies of the Soviet authorities in the lead up and aftermath of the 1986 disaster in what was then the Ukrainian SSR .
The British government has stated that it will not be seeking an extension to the transition period with the EU following the UK ’ s exit from the union in January .
It therefore appears likely that Northern Ireland will be ringing in its centenary year at the very moment the new @ @ @ @ @ @ @ introduced .
The Northern Ireland Protocol will introduce frictions and costs to trade between Great Britain and Northern Ireland that do not exist today .
The Business Insider has reported in this ( paywalled ) piece that many retailers , including a major supermarket chain , are considering pulling out of Northern Ireland as it will be no longer viable to do business due to increasing costs .
Should the UK and EU fail to reach a trade deal this year , this could make matters even worse .
Total purchases of goods @ @ @ @ @ @ @ £35.3 billion in 2018 , with goods purchased from Great Britain comprising £10.4 billion .
Around 70 % of goods purchased from Northern Ireland are destined to high street retailers and supermarkets .
As this report from the NI Business Brexit Working Group makes clear , businesses have been distracted from preparing for the end of the transition period by the response to the coronavirus crisis .
Business groups say that they “ desperately need ” more detail on how the new Irish Sea trade border will work .
A key issue is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ clarity on what goods are regarded as being “ at risk ” of entering the EU via Northern Ireland and will therefore be subject to additional checks ( with associated costs ) .
There are still substantial differences between the UK and the EU on this crucial point .
On the 19th of May the British government announced its new tariff schedule that will be introduced in January 2021 to replace the EU ’ s Common External Tariff .
Of the 11,830 tariffs announced , only 3,963 remain unchanged , with the majority @ @ @ @ @ @ @ some cases , the tariff has changed from being listed in euro to pounds ) .
However , many of the tariffs have only been reduced by a small amount .
Take , for example , potato crisps .
Currently , imports of crisps from outside the EU face tariffs of 14.1 % .
The new tariff schedule reduces the tariff , but only by 0.1 % , to 14 % .
The tariff has only been reduced by a token amount , but because there will be a tariff differential between the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ could be considered “ at risk ” of entering the EU , and may therefore warrant additional checks and costs when entering Northern Ireland from Great Britain .
Tariff differentials will exist on a range of basic foodstuffs such as canned tomatoes ( the new tariff will reduce from 14.4 % to 14 % ) and onions ( the new tariff will reduce from 9.6 % to 8 % ) .
The differences between the tariffs may be small , but the tariff differentials could cause an increase in costs of importing food @ @ @ @ @ @ @ costs that will ultimately be paid by consumers in Northern Ireland through higher prices .
The British government has finally admitted that there will be checks on goods moving between Great Britain and Northern Ireland , after months of falsely claiming that there wouldn ’ t be .
The disgraceful refusal of the British government to agree an extension of the transition period , combined with its callous disregard towards businesses and consumers in Northern Ireland , has now raised the very real risk of food shortages and price rises in the middle @ @ @ @ @ @ @ new infections during a global pandemic .
Northern Ireland ’ s economy was already struggling before the Covid-19 crisis , and whilst there has been an encouraging fall in the number of new cases , the damage to the economy could mean that we face an economic depression , public health emergency and chaotically erected trade barriers all at the same time .
Whilst the coronavirus crisis could not have been foreseen , the dogmatic insistence on putting Brexiteer ideological purity over lives and livelihoods in Northern Ireland was a choice that the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not squandered the political capital that they were granted by accident following the 2017 general election , the current situation could have been avoided .
Now the DUP ’ s position towards Brexit is unfathomable ; a Schrödinger ’ s Brexit that is simultaneously an awful betrayal and a joyous triumph .
With talks between the UK and the EU seemingly at an impasse , the outlook is bleak for businesses and consumers alike in Northern Ireland , and it is ordinary people who will be hit the hardest by price increases for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ we are about to learn the true cost of lies .
“ Belfast Bulkers ( 31540963354 ) .jpg ” by Ross Geograph is licenced under CC BY-SA 2.0

“What is the cost of lies?” This is the question posed by Valery Legasov in the HBO mini-series Chernobyl, about the lies of the Soviet authorities in the lead up and aftermath of the 1986 disaster in what was then the Ukrainian SSR.
The British government has stated that it will not be seeking an extension to the transition period with the EU following the UK’s exit from the union in January. It therefore appears likely that Northern Ireland will be ringing in its centenary year at the very moment the new arrangements for trade with Great Britain are introduced.
The Northern Ireland Protocol will introduce frictions and costs to trade between Great Britain and Northern Ireland that do not exist today. The Business Insider has reported in this (paywalled) piece that many retailers, including a major supermarket chain, are considering pulling out of Northern Ireland as it will be no longer viable to do business due to increasing costs.
Should the UK and EU fail to reach a trade deal this year, this could make matters even worse.
Total purchases of goods in Northern Ireland were estimated to be £35.3 billion in 2018, with goods purchased from Great Britain comprising £10.4 billion. Around 70% of goods purchased from Northern Ireland are destined to high street retailers and supermarkets.
As this report from the NI Business Brexit Working Group makes clear, businesses have been distracted from preparing for the end of the transition period by the response to the coronavirus crisis. Business groups say that they “desperately need” more detail on how the new Irish Sea trade border will work.
A key issue is that there is still a lack of clarity on what goods are regarded as being “at risk” of entering the EU via Northern Ireland and will therefore be subject to additional checks (with associated costs). There are still substantial differences between the UK and the EU on this crucial point.
On the 19th of May the British government announced its new tariff schedule that will be introduced in January 2021 to replace the EU’s Common External Tariff. Of the 11,830 tariffs announced, only 3,963 remain unchanged, with the majority of the others being reduced (in some cases, the tariff has changed from being listed in euro to pounds).
However, many of the tariffs have only been reduced by a small amount. Take, for example, potato crisps. Currently, imports of crisps from outside the EU face tariffs of 14.1%. The new tariff schedule reduces the tariff, but only by 0.1%, to 14%.
The tariff has only been reduced by a token amount, but because there will be a tariff differential between the EU and the UK, these goods could be considered “at risk” of entering the EU, and may therefore warrant additional checks and costs when entering Northern Ireland from Great Britain. Tariff differentials will exist on a range of basic foodstuffs such as canned tomatoes (the new tariff will reduce from 14.4% to 14%) and onions (the new tariff will reduce from 9.6% to 8%).
The differences between the tariffs may be small, but the tariff differentials could cause an increase in costs of importing food from Great Britain to Northern Ireland, costs that will ultimately be paid by consumers in Northern Ireland through higher prices.
The British government has finally admitted that there will be checks on goods moving between Great Britain and Northern Ireland, after months of falsely claiming that there wouldn’t be.
The disgraceful refusal of the British government to agree an extension of the transition period, combined with its callous disregard towards businesses and consumers in Northern Ireland, has now raised the very real risk of food shortages and price rises in the middle of winter during a possible peak of new infections during a global pandemic.
Northern Ireland’s economy was already struggling before the Covid-19 crisis, and whilst there has been an encouraging fall in the number of new cases, the damage to the economy could mean that we face an economic depression, public health emergency and chaotically erected trade barriers all at the same time.
Whilst the coronavirus crisis could not have been foreseen, the dogmatic insistence on putting Brexiteer ideological purity over lives and livelihoods in Northern Ireland was a choice that the British government made.
Had the DUP not squandered the political capital that they were granted by accident following the 2017 general election, the current situation could have been avoided. Now the DUP’s position towards Brexit is unfathomable; a Schrödinger’s Brexit that is simultaneously an awful betrayal and a joyous triumph.
With talks between the UK and the EU seemingly at an impasse, the outlook is bleak for businesses and consumers alike in Northern Ireland, and it is ordinary people who will be hit the hardest by price increases for daily essentials.
In Northern Ireland, we are about to learn the true cost of lies.
“Belfast Bulkers (31540963354).jpg” by Ross Geograph is licenced under CC BY-SA 2.0


sluggerotoole--2020-06-06--Can Belfast be saved?

Can Belfast be saved?

I ’ ve picked up a tweet linking to a devastating critique of the physical state of Belfast by the Belfast based architect Mark Hackett written last year .
On my visits home I tend to tramp a few selected streets in my old stomping grounds of the Troubles .
Naturally enough I also take in one of two of the tastefully named “ Quarters , ” the designation intended to preserve and develop what remains of the character of the city .
My impression is of a Belfast poised between salvation and further decline .
There is an ambitious @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by the City Council for development up to 2035 .
Couched in planning jargon and replete with colourful illustrations and diagrams I have less idea than better informed Belfast residents of what it amounts to .
Where lies is the balance of power between the public authority and commercial developers ?
What is the realistic level of public investment ?
Like many onlookers , I ’ m perched between signs of hope and deeper fears that commercial developers will create only a few meaningless patches of legoland development – Tribeca ?
– and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ blight spreads as a result of the twin pressures of the post Covid era and the redefinitions of sustainable development due to climate change .
What sort of future is there for Victoria Square ?
Will the new Belfast campus of a reportedly near bankrupt Ulster University soak up most development money for years to come ?
Is the Glider commute the vision of the future ?
Can the gaping holes in the city be filled by real live residents willing and able to live together , if not ” integrated ” at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ?
I ’ m pretty clear that the familiar responses of helplessness expressed as cynicism and exaggerated nostalgia will get us nowhere , if we wish to see the Belfast reborn that most of us long for .
Mark Hackett ’ s powerful article should be read in full .
His theme is segregation by worsening sectarian division from the 1970s added to segregation by class from the early 1960s .
The escape to outer suburbs and towns beyond leaving low density ghettoes in the inner city will be very difficult to reverse @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to him and the Architectural Review for text and photographs .
Belfast may initially appear similar to many other UK cities both in its Victorian-era brick fabric and in its contemporary disparate developments .
Yet one soon encounters the dominance of roads and a realisation that surface car parks are not the exception but a norm that surrounds and peppers the city at every turn .
This is a city redesigned for the car and for commuters living in the wider suburban and metropolitan area .
In this , Belfast shares the characteristics @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are the prefabricated concrete walls with steel posts , layered with mesh fence growing ever taller , taller than you could throw a stone over .
These are the ‘ peace walls ’ of Belfast , of which the city now has approaching a hundred .
The visitor , however , will be hard pressed to find or identify most of the structures – the smaller , more recent ones are strangely intimate , set between the backs of suburban houses in outer areas of the city .
Others lie off main city @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for two miles out from the city : the Falls/Shankill peace line that first formed along the line of terrace houses burnt out in August 1969 .
Today each side of this line has a wide new road .
In places three parallel roads exist , something that may confound those who talk about ‘ bringing down the walls ’ .
The larger roads run along the Shankill side and allow a vista of wall in picturesque brutality , softened by low level artwork , murals and the marks of international visitors .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ draw helping to support the economy of this neglected sector of the city… .
A remarkable restructuring of Belfast took place between 1970 and 1990 , essentially hardwiring sectarian division but moreover leading to a complete sifting of the city based on income and affluence .
This social divide in the city is largely formed and defined by the urban motorway and by other large road structures .
When direct rule began in 1972 , a region-wide governance structure took control of all major decisions , the most dominant and powerful of which @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in what was aptly termed ‘ Roads Service ’ .
The urban motorways were first proposed in the early 1960s , but the Westlink , the only section constructed and cutting through the arterial routes of the west and north of the city , was not started until 1981 , and finished two years later .
However , the neglect and blight caused by these plans , before a spade had even broken ground , had profound impacts on the working-class communities adjoining the city centre .
Families who had rented for generations @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was to be vested and for which the landlords would be compensated .
During the late 1960s , industrial decline was causing social stress for the Catholic mill workers in the Falls and Protestant shipyard workers in the Shankill .
The violence that erupted in the streets connecting these two areas evolved in this context of housing stress and uncertainty , a factor omitted in most Troubles histories .
lf unrealised in the 1970s , the Westlink plans lent themselves to an increasingly balkanised city of sectors and enclaves .
During the early @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , a working committee tasked with examining security issues in the city noted ‘ the wisdom ’ of using the urban motorway and inner ring road projects to create a wide cordon sanitaire to separate the west and north of the city from the commercial core .
These were the working-class areas where the effects of the Troubles were most intense… During the Troubles , general planning policies permitted business and people to relocate to what were seen as safer enclaves in suburbs and towns around the city , essentially facilitating the relocation @ @ @ @ @ @ @ city and increasing the process of social division and sifting .
All of these factors led to the ‘ bubble ’ of car use becoming the predominant and safe method of crossing the city during the conflict .
Notably this has a class dimension , since car ownership in poorer inner areas is low , but the middle classes ( where car ownership is high ) can navigate the city , largely overcoming urban and sectarian obstacles… .
Few now remember the way the city was connected , the populations who were moved @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
For a new suburban and commuting generation , the motorway provides easy access to and through the city .
This transactional relationship views the city as a utility… When it comes to the strategic development of the city , the peace walls are largely forgotten .
A set of hidden barriers and social-class divisions have unfolded in the last two decades in a process that is washing over the older layers of sectarian division .
The city appears to be more divided , not less , despite the superficial appearance of progress @ @ @ @ @ @ @ recent decades has been very fragmentary .
In Brendan Murtagh ’ s words , a ‘ twin speed city ’ has emerged whereby favoured areas benefit from investment , while other areas remain unaddressed , the ‘ contrast ’ in the city has been turned up in peace times .
The shatter zones and inapt developments that sully city life create a centre that is isolated , almost an island set within a ring of poor neighbourhoods with decades of unresolved issues , impervious even to gentrification .
It is arguably this social @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the city is being developed today .
John Duncan ’ s Boom Town series records Belfast ’ s transformation since 2002 .
This image from 2006 depicts Arthur Square , on the dubious cusp of a renaissance There are signs of change : recent refurbishments are bringing people and bespoke offices into the remaining vacant Victorian buildings .
Night life is spreading that is not solely reliant on the evening wave of commuter traffic , or the fleets of taxis depositing and collecting crowds for weekend nights out .
Three tracts of major @ @ @ @ @ @ @ : a new central rail station ; the former Sirocco Works to the east ; and a new Ulster University campus to the north , an entire university relocating from its suburban campus .
The latter brings with it student housing blocks that are adding new residents to the centre .
However , all of these developments are piecemeal and missing strategic opportunities to create a wider social and spatial stitching of the urban fabric .
As Belfast is currently engaging on a new urban plan , the first by the actual city @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it faces key challenges..
The divisions in the city are less visible and less visibly violent than before , but the current mode of development is manifestly creating a more insidious and deep schism , Belfast is still a city divided .

I’ve picked up a tweet linking to a devastating critique of the physical state of Belfast by the Belfast based architect Mark Hackett written last year. On my visits home I tend to tramp a few selected streets in my old stomping grounds of the Troubles. Naturally enough I also take in one of two of the tastefully named “Quarters,” the designation intended to preserve and develop what remains of the character of the city.
My impression is of a Belfast poised between salvation and further decline. There is an ambitious sounding and clearly well intentioned plan run by the City Council for development up to 2035. Couched in planning jargon and replete with colourful illustrations and diagrams I have less idea than better informed Belfast residents of what it amounts to. Where lies is the balance of power between the public authority and commercial developers? What is the realistic level of public investment?
Like many onlookers, I’m perched between signs of hope and deeper fears that commercial developers will create only a few meaningless patches of legoland development – Tribeca? – and maybe not even that, if urban blight spreads as a result of the twin pressures of the post Covid era and the redefinitions of sustainable development due to climate change. What sort of future is there for Victoria Square? Will the new Belfast campus of a reportedly near bankrupt Ulster University soak up most development money for years to come? Is the Glider commute the vision of the future? Can the gaping holes in the city be filled by real live residents willing and able to live together, if not ” integrated” at least in something like the old proximity? I’m pretty clear that the familiar responses of helplessness expressed as cynicism and exaggerated nostalgia will get us nowhere, if we wish to see the Belfast reborn that most of us long for.
Mark Hackett’s powerful article should be read in full. His theme is segregation by worsening sectarian division from the 1970s added to segregation by class from the early 1960s. The escape to outer suburbs and towns beyond leaving low density ghettoes in the inner city will be very difficult to reverse. Here are extracts, with thanks to him and the Architectural Review for text and photographs .
Belfast may initially appear similar to many other UK cities both in its Victorian-era brick fabric and in its contemporary disparate developments. Yet one soon encounters the dominance of roads and a realisation that surface car parks are not the exception but a norm that surrounds and peppers the city at every turn. This is a city redesigned for the car and for commuters living in the wider suburban and metropolitan area. In this, Belfast shares the characteristics of many American cities…
Only partly responsible are the prefabricated concrete walls with steel posts, layered with mesh fence growing ever taller, taller than you could throw a stone over.
These are the ‘peace walls’ of Belfast, of which the city now has approaching a hundred. The visitor, however, will be hard pressed to find or identify most of the structures – the smaller, more recent ones are strangely intimate, set between the backs of suburban houses in outer areas of the city. Others lie off main city arteries. One, however, runs for two miles out from the city: the Falls/Shankill peace line that first formed along the line of terrace houses burnt out in August 1969.
Today each side of this line has a wide new road. In places three parallel roads exist, something that may confound those who talk about ‘bringing down the walls’.
The larger roads run along the Shankill side and allow a vista of wall in picturesque brutality, softened by low level artwork, murals and the marks of international visitors. The wall is now a main tourist draw helping to support the economy of this neglected sector of the city….
A remarkable restructuring of Belfast took place between 1970 and 1990, essentially hardwiring sectarian division but moreover leading to a complete sifting of the city based on income and affluence. This social divide in the city is largely formed and defined by the urban motorway and by other large road structures. When direct rule began in 1972, a region-wide governance structure took control of all major decisions, the most dominant and powerful of which was undoubtedly the transport and infrastructure department in what was aptly termed ‘Roads Service’.
The urban motorways were first proposed in the early 1960s, but the Westlink, the only section constructed and cutting through the arterial routes of the west and north of the city, was not started until 1981, and finished two years later. However, the neglect and blight caused by these plans, before a spade had even broken ground, had profound impacts on the working-class communities adjoining the city centre. Families who had rented for generations found landlords unwilling to repair housing that was to be vested and for which the landlords would be compensated. During the late 1960s, industrial decline was causing social stress for the Catholic mill workers in the Falls and Protestant shipyard workers in the Shankill. The violence that erupted in the streets connecting these two areas evolved in this context of housing stress and uncertainty, a factor omitted in most Troubles histories.
lf unrealised in the 1970s, the Westlink plans lent themselves to an increasingly balkanised city of sectors and enclaves. During the early years of the Troubles in the 1970s, a working committee tasked with examining security issues in the city noted ‘the wisdom’ of using the urban motorway and inner ring road projects to create a wide cordon sanitaire to separate the west and north of the city from the commercial core. These were the working-class areas where the effects of the Troubles were most intense…
During the Troubles, general planning policies permitted business and people to relocate to what were seen as safer enclaves in suburbs and towns around the city, essentially facilitating the relocation of the middle class away from the city and increasing the process of social division and sifting. All of these factors led to the ‘bubble’ of car use becoming the predominant and safe method of crossing the city during the conflict. Notably this has a class dimension, since car ownership in poorer inner areas is low, but the middle classes (where car ownership is high) can navigate the city, largely overcoming urban and sectarian obstacles….
Few now remember the way the city was connected, the populations who were moved are scattered and their stories are lost. For a new suburban and commuting generation, the motorway provides easy access to and through the city. This transactional relationship views the city as a utility…
When it comes to the strategic development of the city, the peace walls are largely forgotten. A set of hidden barriers and social-class divisions have unfolded in the last two decades in a process that is washing over the older layers of sectarian division. The city appears to be more divided, not less, despite the superficial appearance of progress. The recovery of the city in recent decades has been very fragmentary. In Brendan Murtagh’s words, a ‘twin speed city’ has emerged whereby favoured areas benefit from investment, while other areas remain unaddressed, the ‘contrast’ in the city has been turned up in peace times. The shatter zones and inapt developments that sully city life create a centre that is isolated, almost an island set within a ring of poor neighbourhoods with decades of unresolved issues, impervious even to gentrification. It is arguably this social division on class grounds that defines how the city is being developed today.
John Duncan’s Boom Town series records Belfast’s transformation since 2002. This image from 2006 depicts Arthur Square, on the dubious cusp of a renaissance
There are signs of change: recent refurbishments are bringing people and bespoke offices into the remaining vacant Victorian buildings. Night life is spreading that is not solely reliant on the evening wave of commuter traffic, or the fleets of taxis depositing and collecting crowds for weekend nights out. Three tracts of major development are driving change at the moment: a new central rail station; the former Sirocco Works to the east; and a new Ulster University campus to the north, an entire university relocating from its suburban campus. The latter brings with it student housing blocks that are adding new residents to the centre. However, all of these developments are piecemeal and missing strategic opportunities to create a wider social and spatial stitching of the urban fabric.
As Belfast is currently engaging on a new urban plan, the first by the actual city authority in more than 75 years, it faces key challenges..
The divisions in the city are less visible and less visibly violent than before, but the current mode of development is manifestly creating a more insidious and deep schism, Belfast is still a city divided.