sluggerotoole--2020-06-15--Next with Covid 19. Is it the economy, stupid?

Newspaper subs are calling it “ Manic Monday.
” Are they right ?
How is it with you ?
Flash in the pan or setting a trend ?
This week marks the landmark of a return to shopping , the essential activity for economic revival while Covid is still active .
It throws into relief the stark choice everybody hopes to finesse – health or wealth ?
The need for a strategy for revival is as vital as one for easing out of lockdown .
In the UK neither is particularly clear although it must be encouraging that the death @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is a beginning of the end or just a breathing space remains to seen .
Few people are echoing Boris Johnson ’ s familiar eternal optimism that the economy will “ bounce back ” and stay bouncy .
In the immediate future the Guardian stable offers no simple left –right health versus wealth dichotomy .
The one glimmer of light was spotted in the financial markets last month by Gavyn Davies in the FT The relatively optimistic forecasts for the advanced economies seem to treat the 2020 downturn in a similar fashion to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , which has a catastrophic immediate effect but then disappears extremely rapidly .
If that pattern is repeated this year , the implication is that share price valuations may be only minimally affected by discounted future profits .
Markets being nervous ninnies , confidence won ’ t be helped by fear of a second Covid wave in China .
Yet despite the BLM waves of violence in America over the past ten days , the stock market went its own sweet way , responding to encouraging employment figures .
The Fed chairman was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ last week .
The S & P 500 , America ’ s broadest stock index , has rallied by some 48 % and the Dow Jones Industrial Average , its best known , has risen by 51 % .
The Nasdaq , dominated by tech stocks , is up by some 50 % and is now ahead by 15 % for the year as a whole .
All of which made a lot of investment professionals worried that markets were becoming detached from reality .
More than 16 million Americans had lost their @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that the Dow had enjoyed its best weekly gain since 1938 .
This week , however , an element of reality has finally caught up with stock markets .
With many investment professionals nervous that equity markets had rallied too far and too fast , they were given an excuse to take some money off the table when , on Wednesday night , the Fed offered a gloomy prognosis of the US economy .
Warning that the central bank was likely to keep US interest rates close to zero until at least 2022 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s chairman , said the US economy was likely to contract by 6.5 % this year , before rebounding by 5 % next year .
Twenty-two , 24 million people – somehow as a country we have to get them back to work .
They did not do anything wrong .
This was a natural disaster .
“ It is a long road .
It is going to take time.
” Guardian Economics editor Larry Elliot plumps for a reconciliation between health and wealth in favour of a return to work , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ By the end of April , according to initial estimates by the Office for National Statistics , the economy had shrunk by 25 % .
If anything , that will prove to be optimistic because of the difficulty in getting data from companies forced to close… .
Evidence of the harmful side-effects of the lockdown have also emerged .
The number of suicides is up .
Domestic violence has increased .
Mental health is suffering .
Unemployment figures out this week will illustrate the human cost of a 20.4 % drop in national @ @ @ @ @ @ @ jobless total is heading for 3 million this summer despite the fact that the government is currently paying a third of the workforce .
As the Institute for Fiscal Studies pointed out last week , the crisis has deepened Britain ’ s class , ethnic , gender and generational divides .
The likelihood that Covid-19 will resurface a second and perhaps a third or fourth time makes the case for a measured approach to future lockdowns even stronger .
All the evidence is that six months without going to school is more than @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The same applies to youth unemployment .
The longer the spell out of work the deeper the scars .
Getting young people to abide by a second lockdown would be problematic .
They want to work , to meet their mates , go on demonstrations and have some fun .
They know they are low risk and will do their own cost-benefit analysis .
Many will simply not comply , deciding instead that Covid-19 is a risk they are prepared to accept .
This is not a bad philosophy because until a vaccine @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Either countries such as Britain use effective track and trace systems to deal with local hotspots and let the rest of the country operate as near to normal as possible , or they shut everything down again .
If they haven ’ t already done so , governments will conclude that the economic , social , health and educational costs of full lockdowns are too high and that somehow we have to learn to live with Covid-19 .
Left and right are in parallel up to a point .
The Observer ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to subsidise wages and invest in companies .
Around 1.6 million retail workers are furloughed ; 1.4 million hotel , restaurant and pub workers .
Expect their employers in these ultra-distressed sectors to make at least of half their payroll redundant when furloughing ends .
On top , another 5.7 million are furloughed – expect a third of them to be made redundant .
Unemployment is thus nearly certain to exceed 6 million by early 2021 .
Avoiding this is the most profound challenge British economic policymakers have confronted in my lifetime .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ the wages of 9 million people indefinitely .
But equally it can not risk 6 million unemployed .
What it must do is introduce a wage subsidy as it phases out the job retention scheme so that employers do not sack their workers as furlough ends , but instead keep them on as active workers .
The subsidy can be reduced gradually during 2021 but in those sectors in extreme distress it should continue into 2023 .
I would add a subsidy to hire and train all unemployed 16- to 25-year-olds , underwriting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the government must aggressively stand behind banks and investors supporting distressed companies with subsidised loans and by taking partial direct stakes , forgoing tax if necessary to keep firms alive as long as other stakeholders take a similar hit .
The whole approach might seem expensive .
But the fiscal and human cost of allowing firms constituting a sixth of GDP to go bust , with unemployment rocketing , is many times greater .
If averting immediate mass unemployment is one objective , another is to lay the basis of a more sustainable @ @ @ @ @ @ @ innovative and green enterprises .
Sunak has launched a £500m future fund to support innovative and high-growth companies .
That ’ s good , but it is minuscule .
Germany ’ s designated funds for economic reinvention , part of its recently announced economic recovery plan , are many times larger .
It will Istick in the craw of the Brexit right but Britain would do well to follow Germany ’ s lead .
Its overall economic stimulus is worth 4 % of GDP .
We should follow suit .
How is all @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the old rules need torching .
Issue perpetual bonds that don ’ t have to be repaid , and , if necessary , supplement the bond proceeds by printing money ; with output taking such an enormous hit , the inflationary risk is non-existent .
Britain is facing a looming first-order economic disaster .
The risk is not thinking big enough in response .
In the Daily Telegraph Gerard Lyons , economic adviser to investment banks including the Bank of China follows Hutton part of the way but goes for tax cuts @ @ @ @ @ @ @ shorter debt repayment schedule .
While unlocking may unleash some pent-up demand , many people will be reluctant to shop , have little to spend or will want to add to their savings as they face an uncertain future .
So VAT should be cut to help boost demand and stamp duty reduced to help kick-start the housing market .
One is credible fiscal activism .
There is no magic money tree .
Instead , low inflation , interest rates and yields allow the government to borrow , and to then reduce debt @ @ @ @ @ @ @ would avoid both tax increases and austerity .
Second is monetary and financial stability , including a new remit for the Bank of England based on money GDP .
This would help guard against inflation in an upturn and weaker demand in a downturn .
Also , while the City needs to be globally competitive it must help finance British companies better .
Last year , the funding gap faced by the UK ’ s small and medium sized firms was a hefty £22 billion .
The third economic arrow is a supply-side @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and helping it grow .
The focus should be on lowering inequality , getting incentives right and boosting innovation , investment and infrastructure .
This crisis could herald a sea-change in how welive , work and travel .
This merits delivering widespread broadband at a faster pace .
It warrants a rethink of transport plans ; after all the rail system has effectively been nationalised .
Also , during the lockdown , almost unnoticed , Gatwick was given permission to turn its unused emergency runway into a second runway .
Why ?
A @ @ @ @ @ @ @ outlined by this government .
The good news is that the health and economic crisis provides a clear basis for doing so .
But delayed until the autumn.. British finance minister Rishi Sunak has decided to delay a major stimulus package until the autumn to see how the economy fares in the coronavirus fallout , the Financial Times reported on Friday .
Sunak will still announce some limited measures next month , but this would not be a “ Budget or mini-Budget ” , an ally of Sunak told the FT. “ We @ @ @ @ @ @ @ situation , and looking at if and where further support makes sense ahead of the more significant moments in the autumn , ” the finance ministry said in response to the FT report .
Prime Minister Boris Johnson on May 27 promised that a post-coronavirus recovery package would be put before parliament .
Sunak has also talked about the need to focus resources on national recovery .

Newspaper subs are calling it “Manic Monday.” Are they right? How is it with you? Flash in the pan or setting a trend? This week marks the landmark of a return to shopping, the essential activity for economic revival while Covid is still active. It throws into relief the stark choice everybody hopes to finesse – health or wealth? The need for a strategy for revival is as vital as one for easing out of lockdown. In the UK neither is particularly clear although it must be encouraging that the death rates are falling steeply. Whether this is a beginning of the end or just a breathing space remains to seen. Few people are echoing Boris Johnson’s familiar eternal optimism that the economy will “bounce back” and stay bouncy. In the immediate future the Guardian stable offers no simple left /health versus right/ wealth dichotomy. The one glimmer of light was spotted in the financial markets last month by Gavyn Davies in the FT
The relatively optimistic forecasts for the advanced economies seem to treat the 2020 downturn in a similar fashion to a recession caused by a natural disaster, which has a catastrophic immediate effect but then disappears extremely rapidly. If that pattern is repeated this year, the implication is that share price valuations may be only minimally affected by discounted future profits.
Markets being nervous ninnies, confidence won’t be helped by fear of a second Covid wave in China. Yet despite the BLM waves of violence in America over the past ten days, the stock market went its own sweet way, responding to encouraging employment figures. The Fed chairman was less impressed, as Sky News reported last week.
The S&P 500, America’s broadest stock index, has rallied by some 48% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average, its best known, has risen by 51%. The Nasdaq, dominated by tech stocks, is up by some 50% and is now ahead by 15% for the year as a whole. All of which made a lot of investment professionals worried that markets were becoming detached from reality. More than 16 million Americans had lost their jobs during the last three weeks and that the Dow had enjoyed its best weekly gain since 1938.
This week, however, an element of reality has finally caught up with stock markets. With many investment professionals nervous that equity markets had rallied too far and too fast, they were given an excuse to take some money off the table when, on Wednesday night, the Fed offered a gloomy prognosis of the US economy.
Warning that the central bank was likely to keep US interest rates close to zero until at least 2022, Jay Powell, the central bank’s chairman, said the US economy was likely to contract by 6.5% this year, before rebounding by 5% next year.
Twenty-two, 24 million people – somehow as a country we have to get them back to work. They did not do anything wrong. This was a natural disaster.
“It is a long road. It is going to take time.”
Guardian Economics editor Larry Elliot plumps for a reconciliation between health and wealth in favour of a return to work, reinforced by crumbling consent for lockdown.
By the end of April, according to initial estimates by the Office for National Statistics, the economy had shrunk by 25%. If anything, that will prove to be optimistic because of the difficulty in getting data from companies forced to close…. Evidence of the harmful side-effects of the lockdown have also emerged. The number of suicides is up. Domestic violence has increased. Mental health is suffering. Unemployment figures out this week will illustrate the human cost of a 20.4% drop in national output in just one month. The jobless total is heading for 3 million this summer despite the fact that the government is currently paying a third of the workforce.
As the Institute for Fiscal Studies pointed out last week, the crisis has deepened Britain’s class, ethnic, gender and generational divides.
The likelihood that Covid-19 will resurface a second and perhaps a third or fourth time makes the case for a measured approach to future lockdowns even stronger. All the evidence is that six months without going to school is more than twice as damaging as three months. The same applies to youth unemployment. The longer the spell out of work the deeper the scars.
Getting young people to abide by a second lockdown would be problematic. They want to work, to meet their mates, go on demonstrations and have some fun. They know they are low risk and will do their own cost-benefit analysis. Many will simply not comply, deciding instead that Covid-19 is a risk they are prepared to accept.
This is not a bad philosophy because until a vaccine is found there is a choice. Either countries such as Britain use effective track and trace systems to deal with local hotspots and let the rest of the country operate as near to normal as possible, or they shut everything down again. If they haven’t already done so, governments will conclude that the economic, social, health and educational costs of full lockdowns are too high and that somehow we have to learn to live with Covid-19.
Left and right are in parallel up to a point. The Observer’s Will Hutton argues for direct state intervention to subsidise wages and invest in companies.
Around 1.6 million retail workers are furloughed; 1.4 million hotel, restaurant and pub workers. Expect their employers in these ultra-distressed sectors to make at least of half their payroll redundant when furloughing ends. On top, another 5.7 million are furloughed – expect a third of them to be made redundant. Unemployment is thus nearly certain to exceed 6 million by early 2021. Avoiding this is the most profound challenge British economic policymakers have confronted in my lifetime.
Obviously, the government cannot pay the wages of 9 million people indefinitely. But equally it cannot risk 6 million unemployed. What it must do is introduce a wage subsidy as it phases out the job retention scheme so that employers do not sack their workers as furlough ends, but instead keep them on as active workers. The subsidy can be reduced gradually during 2021 but in those sectors in extreme distress it should continue into 2023. I would add a subsidy to hire and train all unemployed 16- to 25-year-olds, underwriting a National Youth Corps.
Furthermore, the government must aggressively stand behind banks and investors supporting distressed companies with subsidised loans and by taking partial direct stakes, forgoing tax if necessary to keep firms alive as long as other stakeholders take a similar hit. The whole approach might seem expensive. But the fiscal and human cost of allowing firms constituting a sixth of GDP to go bust, with unemployment rocketing, is many times greater.
If averting immediate mass unemployment is one objective, another is to lay the basis of a more sustainable economy by backing the next wave of innovative and green enterprises. Sunak has launched a £500m future fund to support innovative and high-growth companies. That’s good, but it is minuscule. Germany’s designated funds for economic reinvention, part of its recently announced economic recovery plan, are many times larger. It will Istick in the craw of the Brexit right but Britain would do well to follow Germany’s lead. Its overall economic stimulus is worth 4% of GDP. We should follow suit.
How is all this to be financed? Here again, the old rules need torching. Issue perpetual bonds that don’t have to be repaid, and, if necessary, supplement the bond proceeds by printing money; with output taking such an enormous hit, the inflationary risk is non-existent. Britain is facing a looming first-order economic disaster. The risk is not thinking big enough in response.
In the Daily Telegraph Gerard Lyons, economic adviser to investment banks including the Bank of China follows Hutton part of the way but goes for tax cuts – the traditional Tory way– and a shorter debt repayment schedule.
While unlocking may unleash some pent-up demand, many people will be reluctant to shop, have little to spend or will want to add to their savings as they face an uncertain future. So VAT should be cut to help boost demand and stamp duty reduced to help kick-start the housing market.
One is credible fiscal activism. There is no magic money tree. Instead, low inflation, interest rates and yields allow the government to borrow, and to then reduce debt to GDP gradually over time. This would avoid both tax increases and austerity.
Second is monetary and financial stability, including a new remit for the Bank of England based on money GDP. This would help guard against inflation in an upturn and weaker demand in a downturn. Also, while the City needs to be globally competitive it must help finance British companies better. Last year, the funding gap faced by the UK’s small and medium sized firms was a hefty £22 billion.
The third economic arrow is a supply-side agenda aimed at incentivising the private sector and helping it grow. The focus should be on lowering inequality, getting incentives right and boosting innovation, investment and infrastructure.
This crisis could herald a sea-change in how welive, work and travel. This merits delivering widespread broadband at a faster pace. It warrants a rethink of transport plans; after all the rail system has effectively been nationalised. Also, during the lockdown, almost unnoticed, Gatwick was given permission to turn its unused emergency runway into a second runway. Why?
A credible economic vision has yet to be outlined by this government. The good news is that the health and economic crisis provides a clear basis for doing so.
But delayed until the autumn..
British finance minister Rishi Sunak has decided to delay a major stimulus package until the autumn to see how the economy fares in the coronavirus fallout, the Financial Times reported on Friday.
Sunak will still announce some limited measures next month, but this would not be a “Budget or mini-Budget”, an ally of Sunak told the FT.
“We will be taking stock of the economic situation, and looking at if and where further support makes sense ahead of the more significant moments in the autumn,” the finance ministry said in response to the FT report.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson on May 27 promised that a post-coronavirus recovery package would be put before parliament. Sunak has also talked about the need to focus resources on national recovery.


sluggerotoole--2020-06-15--‘There is something seriously and fundamentally wrong’ – Northern Ireland’s housing crisis

Although the shortage of housing was a major issue in the recent Irish general election , it is also a major challenge in Northern Ireland .
For some reason , there is much less focus on this north of the border .
PPR – the Participation and Practice of Rights – is keen to correct this , as its housing activist Marissa McMahon explained in the latest Holywell Trust Forward Together podcast .
It is important to consider the statistics when placing the housing crisis in context .
As at March last year , there were nearly 38,000 applicants in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ list , of which more than 26,000 were recognised as being in ‘ housing stress ’ , while 12,512 households were accepted as statutorily homeless .
With less than a thousand new social homes built in 2018/19 , at that rate it would take more than a decade to house just those who are accepted as homeless .
It is fair to talk of a housing crisis in Northern Ireland , which is getting worse .
What is more , housing stress is connected to broader social problems – it can trigger depression @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
It is also related to relationship breakdowns and a range of other social problems .
“ There are over 15,000 children , under 18s , living in housing stress in these six counties , ” says Marissa .
“ That is an awful lot of children growing up in accommodation that is not suitable .
It ’ s overcrowded , in hostels , in single lets .
Children have become institutionalised and don ’ t know any different .
I don ’ t believe that in the 21st Century , in one @ @ @ @ @ @ @ there should be that many people , including children , living in housing stress .
There ’ s something seriously and fundamentally wrong.
” PPR is specifically targeting the site of the former Mackie ’ s textile factory in West Belfast , which they want used to build new social homes .
“ It ’ s a massive piece of publicly owned land in the highest area of need in Belfast .
Within a few miles radius there are five homeless hostels , that includes women and children and single males .
Not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has been consulted on whether they would like to see homes built on the Mackie ’ s site .
Instead people in government decided that homes weren ’ t needed .
Yet there are plans for private developers to build homes , build apartments , on a site adjacent to Mackie ’ s .
That doesn ’ t make any sense.
” Marissa is also concerned about the Tribeca development proposal in the centre of Belfast .
The city ’ s councillors “ didn ’ t consider what the young people , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , their views , or what they needed in that area , ” she argues .
“ They are in social need.
” Instead of the construction of large numbers of new social housing , there has been a growth in the private housing sector .
According to analysis by the House of Commons library , Northern Ireland has become the only part of the UK where the private housing rental sector is larger than the social housing sector .
In some instances , that private housing is of very poor quality .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ reform of the private housing sector , ” says Marissa .
“ There needs to be much more consistent and stringent policies in place.
” She expresses concern at the conditions in private accommodation in which refugees fleeing violence in Syria , for example , have been placed .
“ They are not for purpose , at all , ” says Marissa .
She instances “ extreme dampness ” , which can be very difficult to resolve , even though the lets have been arranged by the Housing Executive .
“ First of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ placed in homes of that standard and they shouldn ’ t have to go through these loops to get the basics… We have so many families who have tried to set up homes in private rental homes because that is all they can access and they are told we want you out within a month .
Where do they go ?
” While most homeless households are not sleeping rough , there is also a problem in Northern Ireland of street homelessness .
Marissa believes this is not being properly addressed , even @ @ @ @ @ @ @ comparison with England , the emergency changes to our legislation have been quite minor .
The minister for housing in England has formed a task force , has made it a duty for local councils to house homeless people in B & Bs and hotels .
Here it is much more ad hoc.
” Marissa adds : “ I have an example of that .
This is a frontline worker , working as an interpreter for the NHS , who was basically sleeping rough , who was put into what was being deemed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was told that this may cost up to £750 per month .
She can ’ t afford that .
So while they ’ ve lifted the people off the street and put them into accommodation – which is absolutely fantastic to see – there is this worry about what happens afterwards .
Is it going to be rolled back , back onto the street ?
Where do these people go ?
” This latest podcast in the second Forward Together series is available here on the website of peace and reconciliation charity Holywell @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Community Relations Council ’ s Media Grant Scheme Disclaimer : This project has received support from the Northern Ireland Community Relations Council which aims to promote a pluralist society characterised by equity , respect for diversity , and recognition of interdependence .
The views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of the Community Relations Council .

Although the shortage of housing was a major issue in the recent Irish general election, it is also a major challenge in Northern Ireland. For some reason, there is much less focus on this north of the border. PPR – the Participation and Practice of Rights – is keen to correct this, as its housing activist Marissa McMahon explained in the latest Holywell Trust Forward Together podcast.
It is important to consider the statistics when placing the housing crisis in context. As at March last year, there were nearly 38,000 applicants in Northern Ireland on the social housing waiting list, of which more than 26,000 were recognised as being in ‘housing stress’, while 12,512 households were accepted as statutorily homeless. With less than a thousand new social homes built in 2018/19, at that rate it would take more than a decade to house just those who are accepted as homeless. It is fair to talk of a housing crisis in Northern Ireland, which is getting worse.
What is more, housing stress is connected to broader social problems – it can trigger depression and can be a factor in suicide. It is also related to relationship breakdowns and a range of other social problems. “There are over 15,000 children, under 18s, living in housing stress in these six counties,” says Marissa. “That is an awful lot of children growing up in accommodation that is not suitable. It’s overcrowded, in hostels, in single lets. Children have become institutionalised and don’t know any different. I don’t believe that in the 21st Century, in one of the six richest nations, that there should be that many people, including children, living in housing stress. There’s something seriously and fundamentally wrong.”
PPR is specifically targeting the site of the former Mackie’s textile factory in West Belfast, which they want used to build new social homes. “It’s a massive piece of publicly owned land in the highest area of need in Belfast. Within a few miles radius there are five homeless hostels, that includes women and children and single males. Not one of those people in those hostels has been consulted on whether they would like to see homes built on the Mackie’s site. Instead people in government decided that homes weren’t needed. Yet there are plans for private developers to build homes, build apartments, on a site adjacent to Mackie’s. That doesn’t make any sense.”
Marissa is also concerned about the Tribeca development proposal in the centre of Belfast. The city’s councillors “didn’t consider what the young people, the children, the women in those hostels, their views, or what they needed in that area,” she argues. “They are in social need.”
Instead of the construction of large numbers of new social housing, there has been a growth in the private housing sector. According to analysis by the House of Commons library, Northern Ireland has become the only part of the UK where the private housing rental sector is larger than the social housing sector. In some instances, that private housing is of very poor quality. “There needs to be a total reform of the private housing sector,” says Marissa. “There needs to be much more consistent and stringent policies in place.”
She expresses concern at the conditions in private accommodation in which refugees fleeing violence in Syria, for example, have been placed. “They are not for purpose, at all,” says Marissa. She instances “extreme dampness”, which can be very difficult to resolve, even though the lets have been arranged by the Housing Executive. “First of all they shouldn’t have been placed in homes of that standard and they shouldn’t have to go through these loops to get the basics… We have so many families who have tried to set up homes in private rental homes because that is all they can access and they are told we want you out within a month. Where do they go?”
While most homeless households are not sleeping rough, there is also a problem in Northern Ireland of street homelessness. Marissa believes this is not being properly addressed, even during the Covid-19 pandemic. “In comparison with England, the emergency changes to our legislation have been quite minor. The minister for housing in England has formed a task force, has made it a duty for local councils to house homeless people in B&Bs and hotels. Here it is much more ad hoc.”
Marissa adds: “I have an example of that. This is a frontline worker, working as an interpreter for the NHS, who was basically sleeping rough, who was put into what was being deemed as a single let. Then I was told that this may cost up to £750 per month. She can’t afford that. So while they’ve lifted the people off the street and put them into accommodation – which is absolutely fantastic to see – there is this worry about what happens afterwards. Is it going to be rolled back, back onto the street? Where do these people go?”
This latest podcast in the second Forward Together series is available here on the website of peace and reconciliation charity Holywell Trust. It is funded by the Community Relations Council’s Media Grant Scheme
Disclaimer: This project has received support from the Northern Ireland Community Relations Council which aims to promote a pluralist society characterised by equity, respect for diversity, and recognition of interdependence. The views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of the Community Relations Council.


Fergus on Monday

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sluggerotoole--2020-06-15--Mask wearing rates in the UK are among the lowest in the world – it’s time for #MasksForAll

As social distancing measures are relaxed in Northern Ireland and elsewhere , it is vital that everything possible is done to attempt to prevent a secondary wave of Covid-19 infections .
Of the actions that citizens and policymakers can take to mitigate against the risk of another wave of the coronavirus , Northern Ireland and Great Britain are amongst the world ’ s laggards on what has been found to be the most effective intervention against the virus ; the universal wearing of masks .
The chart at the top of the post shows the percentage of the population by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ( either always , frequently , or sometimes ) , from survey data published by YouGov .
The data is colour coded by region , with European countries in blue , countries in the Asia-Pacific region coloured orange and the Americas in red .
Except for Norway , Finland , Sweden and the Netherlands , the UK had the lowest incidence of mask wearing , with Northern Ireland having the lowest numbers in the UK ( there was no data for the Republic of Ireland ) .
Science around the effectiveness of masks @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
This preprint contains an excellent summary of the evidence in favour of wearing masks .
A key message was the results of modelling that found that “ if 70 % of the general public wear masks and contact tracing is conducted at 60 % efficiency within a 4-day time frame , epidemic growth will be flattened in the hardest hit countries.
” The chart below shows how the R number can be suppressed with greater mask efficacy ( how well the mask blocks the virus ) and adherence ( the proportion of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ In Northern Ireland and Great Britain , adherence is in the region of 25 % .
For masks to be properly effective against future waves of Covid-19 , it would need to increase significantly .
However , other countries have shown that such a rapid shift in public behaviour can be done in a short amount of time .
For instance , in Germany , only 2 % of people wore masks in public in the middle of March , and within 2 months this had risen to 64 % .
This Medium @ @ @ @ @ @ @ good summary of the errors made by those arguing against the effectiveness of masks .
It is now clear that the initial WHO guidance ( that masks were ineffective ) was disastrous .
One common argument made against the wearing of masks was that they made people feel more secure and therefore less likely to adhere to social distancing measures .
There was never any evidence provided for this claim , and it has now been comprehensively debunked .
This paper from the University of Padua used sensor data to show that people @ @ @ @ @ @ @ when masks were worn .
Economic modelling has suggested that the economic value of each cloth mask could be worth thousands of dollars due to decreased mortality risks and the decreasing probability of future lockdowns .
Countries including Japan , Belgium and Singapore are distributing cloth masks to their entire populations .
It is worth noting that Taiwan , which has had 441 cases in total ( fewer than the Lisburn and Castlereagh council area ) , has never had a lockdown but has , in line with other countries in the region @ @ @ @ @ @ @ universal levels of mask wearing .
As of today , the 15th of June , masks are compulsory on public transport in England and on Stena Line ferries between Northern Ireland and Great Britain .
The science is now absolutely crystal clear that the wearing of masks helps to reduce the spread of Covid-19 and to save lives .
Their use should absolutely be mandatory in indoor environments such as shops and public transport .
Perhaps the most succinct summary on the matter is from this study : “ We conclude that wearing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the most effective means to prevent interhuman transmission , and this inexpensive practice , in conjunction with simultaneous social distancing , quarantine , and contact tracing , represents the most likely fighting opportunity to stop the COVID-19 pandemic.
” We now have an opportunity to crush the curve ; it ’ s time for # MasksForAll .
Impact of public mask wearing under the full range of mask adherence and efficacy scenarios was taken from Howard , J. ; Huang , A. ; Li , Z. ; Tufekci , Z. ; Zdimal , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ; von Delft , A. ; Price , A. ; Fridman , L. ; Tang , L. ; Tang , V. ; Watson , G.L .
; Bax , C.E .
; Shaikh , R. ; Questier , F. ; Hernandez , D. ; Chu , L.F. ; Ramirez , C.M .
; Rimoin , A.W .
Face Masks Against COVID-19 : An Evidence Review .
Preprints 2020 , 2020040203 ( doi : 10.20944/preprints202004.0203.v2 ) and is licensed under CC BY 4.0 .

As social distancing measures are relaxed in Northern Ireland and elsewhere, it is vital that everything possible is done to attempt to prevent a secondary wave of Covid-19 infections.
Of the actions that citizens and policymakers can take to mitigate against the risk of another wave of the coronavirus, Northern Ireland and Great Britain are amongst the world’s laggards on what has been found to be the most effective intervention against the virus; the universal wearing of masks.
The chart at the top of the post shows the percentage of the population by country who wear masks outside the home (either always, frequently, or sometimes), from survey data published by YouGov. The data is colour coded by region, with European countries in blue, countries in the Asia-Pacific region coloured orange and the Americas in red.
Except for Norway, Finland, Sweden and the Netherlands, the UK had the lowest incidence of mask wearing, with Northern Ireland having the lowest numbers in the UK (there was no data for the Republic of Ireland).
Science around the effectiveness of masks to impede Covid-19 infections is developing rapidly. This preprint contains an excellent summary of the evidence in favour of wearing masks. A key message was the results of modelling that found that “if 70% of the general public wear masks and contact tracing is conducted at 60% efficiency within a 4-day time frame, epidemic growth will be flattened in the hardest hit countries.”
The chart below shows how the R number can be suppressed with greater mask efficacy (how well the mask blocks the virus) and adherence (the proportion of the public that wears masks).
In Northern Ireland and Great Britain, adherence is in the region of 25%. For masks to be properly effective against future waves of Covid-19, it would need to increase significantly. However, other countries have shown that such a rapid shift in public behaviour can be done in a short amount of time. For instance, in Germany, only 2% of people wore masks in public in the middle of March, and within 2 months this had risen to 64%.
This Medium post by Nassim Nicholas Taleb is a good summary of the errors made by those arguing against the effectiveness of masks. It is now clear that the initial WHO guidance (that masks were ineffective) was disastrous.
One common argument made against the wearing of masks was that they made people feel more secure and therefore less likely to adhere to social distancing measures. There was never any evidence provided for this claim, and it has now been comprehensively debunked. This paper from the University of Padua used sensor data to show that people were more likely to keep physically distanced when masks were worn.
Economic modelling has suggested that the economic value of each cloth mask could be worth thousands of dollars due to decreased mortality risks and the decreasing probability of future lockdowns.
Countries including Japan, Belgium and Singapore are distributing cloth masks to their entire populations. It is worth noting that Taiwan, which has had 441 cases in total (fewer than the Lisburn and Castlereagh council area), has never had a lockdown but has, in line with other countries in the region with very few cases, seen near universal levels of mask wearing.
As of today, the 15th of June, masks are compulsory on public transport in England and on Stena Line ferries between Northern Ireland and Great Britain.
The science is now absolutely crystal clear that the wearing of masks helps to reduce the spread of Covid-19 and to save lives. Their use should absolutely be mandatory in indoor environments such as shops and public transport.
Perhaps the most succinct summary on the matter is from this study:
“We conclude that wearing of face masks in public corresponds to the most effective means to prevent interhuman transmission, and this inexpensive practice, in conjunction with simultaneous social distancing, quarantine, and contact tracing, represents the most likely fighting opportunity to stop the COVID-19 pandemic.”
We now have an opportunity to crush the curve; it’s time for #MasksForAll.
Impact of public mask wearing under the full range of mask adherence and efficacy scenarios was taken from Howard, J.; Huang, A.; Li, Z.; Tufekci, Z.; Zdimal, V.; van der Westhuizen, H.; von Delft, A.; Price, A.; Fridman, L.; Tang, L.; Tang, V.; Watson, G.L.; Bax, C.E.; Shaikh, R.; Questier, F.; Hernandez, D.; Chu, L.F.; Ramirez, C.M.; Rimoin, A.W. Face Masks Against COVID-19: An Evidence Review. Preprints 2020, 2020040203 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202004.0203.v2) and is licensed under CC BY 4.0.


sluggerotoole--2020-06-15--Should we all wear face masks? Read my lips…

As understatements go it was a good one .
“ It would have been much better if there had been engagement….with devolved administrations ahead of this announcement ” said Nichola Mallon referring , with impressive restraint , to the announcement by Transport Secretary Grant Shapps that face coverings would be compulsory on public transport in England from 15th June .
Most people would assume that speaking to the other three Transport Ministers before announcing a significant change in policy was not only good manners but essential if implementing a coordinated and successful exit from the Lockdown .
Not that this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have form on this .
The letter advising people shielding at home for the past twelve weeks that they could now leave the house was dispatched without notifying doctors .
Many GPs learnt about the development when patients rang asking for further advice .
Not ideal .
Face masks have become part of the culture war between Republicans and Democrats in the USA .
On this side of the Atlantic , we like to think that we are less ideological , more guided by the science ; and the science has been evolving @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rapidly expanded over the past six months .
The evidence supporting the wearing of face coverings has become stronger .
It is possible to be infectious while still having no symptoms and this is where face coverings come into their own .
A three-layered textile face mask is pretty darn good at stopping you spreading the virus if you are one of those infected but symptomless individuals .
This is particularly important in confined spaces and over a time period greater than ten minutes , for example during a journey on public transport @ @ @ @ @ @ @ their downsides .
For the hearing impaired who lip-read there is an obvious problem .
And wearing them may create complacency and carelessness regarding other safety measures .
They also interfere with communication .
Facial expressions are an enormously important part of our interactions and facilitate good communication .
The stress associated with zoom meetings is partly because we need to concentrate so intently on reading facial expressions , body language , and voice intonation .
Good communication is necessary for good government , safe communities and healthy relationships .
Connectedness is integral @ @ @ @ @ @ @ atomisation of society utilizing every means of communication becomes important in order to help people connect .
The coronavirus epidemic has shown that , in the face of a common enemy , our politicians can work together pretty well , despite the occasional Shinner being unable to resist the temptation to break lose and , predictably , blame Britain .
After more than two years of not speaking to each other they discovered the benefits of better communication and that working together can deliver for the people ( which after all is what @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Is it wishful thinking to hope that this might continue ?
So next time I travel on a glider I will don my face covering , all be it reluctantly .
And I will encourage others to do likewise while the virus is still circulating in the community .
But I will look forward to the day when we all , politicians included , communicate clearly face to face , knowing that good conversations are necessary for a healthy democracy .

As understatements go it was a good one. “It would have been much better if there had been engagement….with devolved administrations ahead of this announcement” said Nichola Mallon referring, with impressive restraint, to the announcement by Transport Secretary Grant Shapps that face coverings would be compulsory on public transport in England from 15th June. Most people would assume that speaking to the other three Transport Ministers before announcing a significant change in policy was not only good manners but essential if implementing a coordinated and successful exit from the Lockdown.
Not that this was a one-off, the Tory Government have form on this. The letter advising people shielding at home for the past twelve weeks that they could now leave the house was dispatched without notifying doctors. Many GPs learnt about the development when patients rang asking for further advice. Not ideal.
Face masks have become part of the culture war between Republicans and Democrats in the USA. On this side of the Atlantic, we like to think that we are less ideological, more guided by the science; and the science has been evolving. Our knowledge about Covid 19 has rapidly expanded over the past six months. The evidence supporting the wearing of face coverings has become stronger. It is possible to be infectious while still having no symptoms and this is where face coverings come into their own. A three-layered textile face mask is pretty darn good at stopping you spreading the virus if you are one of those infected but symptomless individuals. This is particularly important in confined spaces and over a time period greater than ten minutes, for example during a journey on public transport.
But face coverings are not without their downsides. For the hearing impaired who lip-read there is an obvious problem. And wearing them may create complacency and carelessness regarding other safety measures. They also interfere with communication. Facial expressions are an enormously important part of our interactions and facilitate good communication. The stress associated with zoom meetings is partly because we need to concentrate so intently on reading facial expressions, body language, and voice intonation. Good communication is necessary for good government, safe communities and healthy relationships. Connectedness is integral to human flourishing and with the increasing atomisation of society utilizing every means of communication becomes important in order to help people connect.
The coronavirus epidemic has shown that, in the face of a common enemy, our politicians can work together pretty well, despite the occasional Shinner being unable to resist the temptation to break lose and, predictably, blame Britain. After more than two years of not speaking to each other they discovered the benefits of better communication and that working together can deliver for the people (which after all is what politicians are supposed to do). Is it wishful thinking to hope that this might continue?
So next time I travel on a glider I will don my face covering, all be it reluctantly. And I will encourage others to do likewise while the virus is still circulating in the community. But I will look forward to the day when we all, politicians included, communicate clearly face to face, knowing that good conversations are necessary for a healthy democracy.


sluggerotoole--2020-06-15--Prospective government to set up a unit “to work towards a consensus on a shared island”…

Well , it seems something is finally moving in the Republic .
There are several documents running about amongst the Dublin press , but from a Northern point of view , this could be the most interesting ( time will tell if it is actually important ) .
In the Irish Times , they report that a new unit is to be set up in the Taoiseach ’ s office , “ to work towards a consensus on a shared island.
” : The idea has been bandied around in Dublin as a United Ireland Unit , but here is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ who has been a critical not of cross border institutions but the abandonment of North-South as a priority for the two governments .
What ’ s most notable in this analysis is the sheer dearth of ideas brought forward by any of the three cardinal points in this part internal , part international relationship .
Brexit alone means the Republic must get closer to NI if only to protect its own interests .
Sinn Féin ’ s boost in southern popularity comes along with some buy-in amongst some opinion formers that Unity is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the government needs to project it ’ s own views of what that might look like .
But data from Liverpool University ’ s election survey from last December suggests up to 20 % of the population are not interested in the constitutional issue .
Posturing , and the polarisation it begets , is wearing ( and not in a good way ) .
Rumours of the imminent arrival of UI are a result of it being Sinn Féin ’ s raison d ’ etre .
There ’ s no plan and no @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ( unlike Scotland ) are remotely interested in selling anything as disruptive as the end of partition .
The new unit could serve a new Lemass-like class of activism in more tangible shared interests ( the sort not predetermined by identity ) in growing the island ’ s cake using shared opportunities for small businesses on both sides of the border .
It could try to tap into Stormont ’ s newfound confidence and relative popularity arising from its handling of the Covid 19 crisis , and the small bump in May ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ much detail or a recognisable PfG ) .
As we ’ ve seen from the disjunctures in public health ( with in the UK , never mind the jurisdictions on the island ) , there is also huge scope across policy areas for feeding bodies like the North-South Ministerial Council with the work of building co-operation .
Brexit , conveniently forgotten under the stresses and strains of Covid 19 , may come back with a vengeance if the ultimate result is a no-deal , and producers in both parts of the island have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cliff drop in prices for beef and chicken .
What are the contingencies ?
Where are those conversations now ?
Or are they even happening at all ?
With Northern Ireland remaining inside both the UK Customs Union and the EU Customs Code it could be in a unique position to drive an all-island economy in its own better interests .
That will need willing partners to make it happen .
Talk is cheap , and this unit won ’ t have long to prove its worth .
They need to start by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that have fallen into disrepair through the political neglect of the last ten years ) .
That means ramping up engagement with NI ( nationalists are feeling as ignored/betrayed as unionists ) with a view to expanding a broader sense of common purpose , with key departments like Foreign Affairs and Trade and Enterprise bringing real agency .
The return on such engagement will be successes ( and failures ) in places where we least expect them .
It ’ s an opportunity to plant seeds , and frame and then reframe in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ than endlessly decrying our mutual inefficiencies .
Or that oppressive sense of the last few years of ‘ there ’ s nothing out there really ’ as Anna Burns describes it in her novel Milkman other than the old enmities and embedded narratives to fall back on .
Time to choose stories that grow life and allow us to breath and to grow and to flourish .
“ Chain bridge , Zhangjiajie ” by cattan2011 is licensed under CC BY

Well, it seems something is finally moving in the Republic. There are several documents running about amongst the Dublin press, but from a Northern point of view, this could be the most interesting (time will tell if it is actually important).
In the Irish Times, they report that a new unit is to be set up in the Taoiseach’s office, “to work towards a consensus on a shared island.”:
“This unit will examine the political, social, economic and cultural considerations underpinning a future in which all traditions are mutually respected.”
The idea has been bandied around in Dublin as a United Ireland Unit, but here is the pluralist voice of Micheál Martin, who has been a critical not of cross border institutions but the abandonment of North-South as a priority for the two governments.
What’s most notable in this analysis is the sheer dearth of ideas brought forward by any of the three cardinal points in this part internal, part international relationship. Brexit alone means the Republic must get closer to NI if only to protect its own interests.
Sinn Féin’s boost in southern popularity comes along with some buy-in amongst some opinion formers that Unity is not far around the corner and that the government needs to project it’s own views of what that might look like.
But data from Liverpool University’s election survey from last December suggests up to 20% of the population are not interested in the constitutional issue. Posturing, and the polarisation it begets, is wearing (and not in a good way).
Rumours of the imminent arrival of UI are a result of it being Sinn Féin’s raison d’etre. There’s no plan and no sense that any of the new non-unionist (unlike Scotland) are remotely interested in selling anything as disruptive as the end of partition.
The new unit could serve a new Lemass-like class of activism in more tangible shared interests (the sort not predetermined by identity) in growing the island’s cake using shared opportunities for small businesses on both sides of the border.
It could try to tap into Stormont’s newfound confidence and relative popularity arising from its handling of the Covid 19 crisis, and the small bump in May’s budget (albeit it came without much detail or a recognisable PfG).
As we’ve seen from the disjunctures in public health (with in the UK, never mind the jurisdictions on the island), there is also huge scope across policy areas for feeding bodies like the North-South Ministerial Council with the work of building co-operation.
Brexit, conveniently forgotten under the stresses and strains of Covid 19, may come back with a vengeance if the ultimate result is a no-deal, and producers in both parts of the island have to deal with state aid and a cliff drop in prices for beef and chicken.
What are the contingencies? Where are those conversations now? Or are they even happening at all?
With Northern Ireland remaining inside both the UK Customs Union and the EU Customs Code it could be in a unique position to drive an all-island economy in its own better interests. That will need willing partners to make it happen.
Talk is cheap, and this unit won’t have long to prove its worth. They need to start by building bridges (or mending old ones that have fallen into disrepair through the political neglect of the last ten years).
That means ramping up engagement with NI (nationalists are feeling as ignored/betrayed as unionists) with a view to expanding a broader sense of common purpose, with key departments like Foreign Affairs and Trade and Enterprise bringing real agency.
The return on such engagement will be successes (and failures) in places where we least expect them. It’s an opportunity to plant seeds, and frame and then reframe in order to build a virtuous spiral rather than endlessly decrying our mutual inefficiencies.
Or that oppressive sense of the last few years of ‘there’s nothing out there really’ as Anna Burns describes it in her novel Milkman other than the old enmities and embedded narratives to fall back on.
Time to choose stories that grow life and allow us to breath and to grow and to flourish.
“Chain bridge, Zhangjiajie” by cattan2011 is licensed under CC BY


sluggerotoole--2020-06-16--Action not another inquiry is needed to tackle the Troubles’ legacy as well as the legacy of slavery

Fintan O ’ Toole has turned his attention to support a new proposal for dealing with the legacy .
While well intentioned , this one has a flavour of rummaging in the bottom drawer for an idea .
The proposal ( which I have signed , along with many others ) is a product of widespread consultation with victims , with combatants from all sides and with people in politics and academia .
The nub of it is conditional amnesty : a system in which those with personal knowledge of violent incidents can give that information to the victims and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ It is a hard-headed exchange : truth for amnesty .
The proposal is to establish a reconciliation commission , headed by a mutually agreed international chairperson , or two senior British and Irish judges .
Under this commission , there would be two implementation bodies , one aimed at “ truth recovery ” , the other at “ justice facilitation ” .
The first , staffed by independent professional civilian investigators , would gather and verify information from all available sources , including perpetrators .
( Perpetrators who do not avail of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ prosecution should their offences subsequently come to light . )
The second would help victims and bereaved families to access and deal with this information in a way that is most dignified and sensitive to their trauma .
There are already good models for doing this developed , for example , by Wave Trauma Centre .
Why should this exercise be any more successful than the others ?
While the debate badly needs to be pulled together , the elements of it have passed beyond setting up another review of fundamentals .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ gaps are clear .
One fundamental problem is the lack of incentives for former paramilitaries and state servants “ to tell the truth ” about their actions .
Crudely , what ’ s in for them if credible sanctions are not involved ?
Isn ’ t the identity of the victims the best guide as to why they were singled out or were collateral damage ?
As for political reconciliation , a political outcome of sorts was achieved decades ago .
Deadlock is unlikely be broken without firm government nudges .
But the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the habit of being pressurised to change position in open inquiries unless minded to do so anyway .
However unpalatable it may be in Ireland , it ’ s fairly clear this government would prefer to act on its own , beginning with shielding former soldiers from “ vexatious ” legal action .
If protecting solders leads logically to wider action as Defence Committee MPs suggested three years ago , so be it .
The Stormont House Agreement draft Bill is in limbo but not yet superseded .
To demonstrate the limitations @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Belfast have called for trials on the available evidence to proceed ending with either a sentence of up to two years on conviction or by executive review , with no sentence at all .
Poor justice you might think , but at least criminality would have been established .
To go further , the problem as ever is how to shift people from entrenched public positions , stressing ” public ” .
Probably a majority of the great and good who have had some responsibility for public affairs are in favour of drawing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ DUP and Sinn Fein are privately not far behind .
Key responsibility lies with the British government far beyond the interests of former soldiers .
Two moves are necessary .
The first is a review with results made public of the quality of evidence available for prosecution .
The second is a credible explanation from the British government of the interests of “ national security ” which are inhibiting some opening of state records to yield further information about ” who pulled the strings as well as who pulled the trigger ” .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ would violate their basic rights in their lifetimes .
A scenario for solution along these lines could be constructed without another inquiry into the fundamentals .
The British would like to bring the Irish government along but would have to involve them to achieve it .
Dublin have plenty of their own disclosures to contribute .
The scenario should be accompanied by cutting the final Gordian knot by making recognition payments to victims on the basis of need .
Roy Jenkins in his time a noted reformer , once said that after many @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the biggest reforms have to be been taken ” on the run ” – ( but not in the Irish sense ! )
“ The Troubles , Argyle Street , Belfast , Northern Ireland-1970 ” by Kaspar C is licensed under CC BY-SA

Fintan O’Toole has turned his attention to support a new proposal for dealing with the legacy. While well intentioned, this one has a flavour of rummaging in the bottom drawer for an idea.
The proposal (which I have signed, along with many others) is a product of widespread consultation with victims, with combatants from all sides and with people in politics and academia. The nub of it is conditional amnesty: a system in which those with personal knowledge of violent incidents can give that information to the victims and their families without fear of prosecution. It is a hard-headed exchange: truth for amnesty.
The proposal is to establish a reconciliation commission, headed by a mutually agreed international chairperson, or two senior British and Irish judges. Under this commission, there would be two implementation bodies, one aimed at “truth recovery”, the other at “justice facilitation”. The first, staffed by independent professional civilian investigators, would gather and verify information from all available sources, including perpetrators. (Perpetrators who do not avail of the conditional amnesty would remain at risk of prosecution should their offences subsequently come to light.) The second would help victims and bereaved families to access and deal with this information in a way that is most dignified and sensitive to their trauma. There are already good models for doing this developed, for example, by Wave Trauma Centre.
Why should this exercise be any more successful than the others? While the debate badly needs to be pulled together, the elements of it have passed beyond setting up another review of fundamentals. The options have been exhaustively examined. The gaps are clear.
One fundamental problem is the lack of incentives for former paramilitaries and state servants “to tell the truth” about their actions. Crudely, what’s in for them if credible sanctions are not involved? Isn’t the identity of the victims the best guide as to why they were singled out or were collateral damage? As for political reconciliation, a political outcome of sorts was achieved decades ago.
Deadlock is unlikely be broken without firm government nudges. But the other problem is that governments are not in the habit of being pressurised to change position in open inquiries unless minded to do so anyway. However unpalatable it may be in Ireland, it’s fairly clear this government would prefer to act on its own, beginning with shielding former soldiers from “vexatious” legal action. If protecting solders leads logically to wider action as Defence Committee MPs suggested three years ago, so be it.
The Stormont House Agreement draft Bill is in limbo but not yet superseded. To demonstrate the limitations of the justice system legal academics in Belfast have called for trials on the available evidence to proceed ending with either a sentence of up to two years on conviction or by executive review, with no sentence at all. Poor justice you might think, but at least criminality would have been established.
To go further, the problem as ever is how to shift people from entrenched public positions, stressing ” public”. Probably a majority of the great and good who have had some responsibility for public affairs are in favour of drawing a line under legal process. The DUP and Sinn Fein are privately not far behind.
Key responsibility lies with the British government far beyond the interests of former soldiers. Two moves are necessary. The first is a review with results made public of the quality of evidence available for prosecution. The second is a credible explanation from the British government of the interests of “national security” which are inhibiting some opening of state records to yield further information about ” who pulled the strings as well as who pulled the trigger”. The trigger pullers seem safer as disclosure would violate their basic rights in their lifetimes.
A scenario for solution along these lines could be constructed without another inquiry into the fundamentals. The British would like to bring the Irish government along but would have to involve them to achieve it. Dublin have plenty of their own disclosures to contribute.
The scenario should be accompanied by cutting the final Gordian knot by making recognition payments to victims on the basis of need. Roy Jenkins in his time a noted reformer, once said that after many years of dither and delay, some of the biggest reforms have to be been taken ” on the run” – (but not in the Irish sense!)
“The Troubles,Argyle Street , Belfast,Northern Ireland-1970” by Kaspar C is licensed under CC BY-SA


sluggerotoole--2020-06-16--LetsGetAlongerism Has Failed in USA and Britain…

When I joined Slugger ( after some false starts ) in early 2010 , the Decade of Centenaries was all the rage , how we should shape the anniversaries such as the Ulster Covenant , the Somme , Easter Rising , as something that was shared history .
I started using the term “ LetsGetAlongerism ” .
A lot of people seem to find the word objectionable .
At one level , it seems rather evident that getting along is an excellent thing , but I think it is not in itself a political philosophy .
On another level , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a third tribe in Norn Iron .
Or maybe if they think there is a third tribe , then it should not be subjected to the same scrutiny as nationalists and unionists .
In the days I went blogging , I was never tired resorting to venues where I might learn more about LetsGetAlongerism .
A hotel in Ormeau Avenue…integrated education ( letslearnalongerism ) , Clonard Monastery ( letsprayalongerism ) , Ulster Museum and writing , painting etc .
for peace ( letscreativealongerism ) , Queens and peace journalism ( letswritealongerism ) and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and a couple of hotels for political party conferences ( letsvotealongerism ) .
I have never really been impressed by cities of culture , Game of Thrones , Titanic , MTV Awards , Tall Ships and Belfast divided into all these Quarters .
Lipstick on a Pig .
Nor am I impressed by middle-class folks telling me that the walls must come down .
And I have had my fill of naïve but decent conflict resolutionists being spoofed by ex-prisoners .
For basically LetsGetAlongerism… the search for some common denominator …is doomed to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ minimalist approach …to Right and Wrong .
We are somewhat lucky that our unofficial memorials ( like the Republican memorial in Carrickmore ) should be contentious , but in reality , they are not .
If we have no complaint about the unofficial ones , we can ’ t complain about the official ones .
I have a significant problem with John Mitchel and blogged about the statue years ago .
Get rid of it and replace it with Frederick Douglas .
It ’ s not for me to say whether Nicholson in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ people here who quite correctly identify as British .
It has nothing to do with me .
The real problem might be the statues that we don ’ t have , rather than the icons we do have .
For example , Sinn Féin and George Floyd .
Black Lives Matter .
But wouldn ’ t it be a good thing if there was a statue for Betty Williams and Mairead Corrigan in West Belfast .
Or indeed the Maguire Children .
And across the Peace Line , I don ’ t know @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tortured and killed in romper rooms .
And the good thing about the Republic is that as a 20th century nation , it has British war memorials ( a great modern one in Longford ) , 1798 “ pikemen ” and 1916 volunteers but on my travels , I notice some great and not so great sculptures….Richard Harris , Terry Wogan , Jack Lynch , Luke Kelly , Joe Dolan and even Arkle the racehorse .
The point is that they have passed 2020 ( year and vision ) vetting .
But older @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have been around for longer and therefore have more problems .
Since American music , movies and TV have dominated my life for sixty years ; there was with the honourable exceptions of Jack Benny Show and Phil Silvers Show , hardly any black people on their screens .
Nobody in all those westerns or sitcoms until the talking point was a black guy pushing Chief Ironside around in a wheelchair .
And others followed , of course .
Casting by quota was a norm .
Although so many of those “ new @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The Golden Girls , The Big Bang Theory , Young Sheldon… all rather white… and maybe that ’ s a more realistic and depressing portrayal of how USA really is .
Victors get to erect statues ( Churchill ) and break statues ( Saddam Hussein ) and of course there are no Hitler or Nazi statues in Germany .
They were after all defeated .
But so was Jefferson Davis , Robert E Lee and Bedford Forrest .
Or maybe after the brief Reconstruction phase , the South was never really defeated , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 1960s thru to this week .
These nights are the Nights that Really Drove Ole Dixie Down .
The image that USA has of itself…that Melting Pot…has taken a knock .
CoronaVirus has made all TV redundant .
But if you tune into Blue Bloods , Special Victims Unit , Chicago PD and The Rookie which were produced in 2019 , the cops depicted in those shows are not solving crime in June 2020…they are out there in armour in Times Square , Michigan Avenue and Mulholland Drive .
Of course , all @ @ @ @ @ @ @ city mayors and cops who are bad apples .
But can I ever really watch any of these shows as entertainment .
Likewise Britain .
Earnest-sounding conservatives tell us they do not share the values of Mr Colston in Bristol and Mr Rhodes in Oxford .
They want us to see the history …it is actually in a lot of books as well as the family histories of a lot of British people .
When people like Nigel Farage get involved , that whole “ history ” argument looks a bit weak .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ Colston ) are not nearly as intriguing as the people who are tumbling .
John Cleese , Ant and Dec and Little Britain .
Monty Python may have been creative but these were public schoolboys and Oxbridge and with attitudes to match .
Ant and Dec are the nation ’ s sweethearts .
And just a few weeks ago we were all singing the Baked Potato Song but whether in terms of Race or attitude to women ( the women are grotesques ) it is now time to reconsider it .
Of course @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ridiculous with those cartoonish scouts turn out to defend Baden Powell ’ s statue .
But Britain which likes to propagate the whole “ multicultural ” version of itself is struggling to cope .
An Olympic style back-slapping won ’ t cut the mustard now .
On both sides of the Atlantic , black and other minorities are more likely to be badly treated by the police , suffer poverty , have underlying conditions , work on the front line in health care and more likely to die in so doing .
And @ @ @ @ @ @ @ minority populations will be the last to get back to the ( old ) Normal .
But it seems Patience has run out .
In the USA , every generation…say 1960 , 1980 , 2000 , and again in 2020 , the Melting Pot is up for scrutiny .
In every age , the majority population need to examine their ( and the nations ) relationship with the minority .
What worked in 1980 will not work today .
And in each generation , the majority goes thru the angst of “ what @ @ @ @ @ @ @ don ’ t think a new compromise can be found and if it does… well , it will soon be 2040 .
Likewise , in 1960 , 1980 , 2000 , Britain has had to re-define its vaunted multicultural society .
As recently as the 2012 Olympics , they were parading themselves as a changing society .
But for every advance made by ethnic minorities , there is a lot of angry majority community feeling aggrieved .
And again I don ’ t think a compromise is possible… and it will soon be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it all again .
On both sides of the Atlantic , it is a dilemma for liberals in the majority community .
And what has this got to do with Norn Iron ?
Well… not a lot .
Cos , there were no liberals in the majority community .
“ FEAR FACTORY LIES & how blurred are the details of war ?
your chances of dying FROM WAR RELATED ACTION based on social math calculations i will perform before your eyes , scott richard ” by torbakhopper is licensed under CC BY-ND

When I joined Slugger (after some false starts) in early 2010, the Decade of Centenaries was all the rage, how we should shape the anniversaries such as the Ulster Covenant, the Somme, Easter Rising, as something that was shared history. I started using the term “LetsGetAlongerism”. A lot of people seem to find the word objectionable. At one level, it seems rather evident that getting along is an excellent thing, but I think it is not in itself a political philosophy. On another level, people refuse to recognise that there is a third tribe in Norn Iron. Or maybe if they think there is a third tribe, then it should not be subjected to the same scrutiny as nationalists and unionists.
In the days I went blogging, I was never tired resorting to venues where I might learn more about LetsGetAlongerism. A hotel in Ormeau Avenue…integrated education (letslearnalongerism), Clonard Monastery (letsprayalongerism), Ulster Museum and writing, painting etc. for peace (letscreativealongerism), Queens and peace journalism (letswritealongerism) and the MAC for the launch of NI21 and a couple of hotels for political party conferences (letsvotealongerism).
I have never really been impressed by cities of culture, Game of Thrones, Titanic, MTV Awards, Tall Ships and Belfast divided into all these Quarters. Lipstick on a Pig.
Nor am I impressed by middle-class folks telling me that the walls must come down. And I have had my fill of naïve but decent conflict resolutionists being spoofed by ex-prisoners.
For basically LetsGetAlongerism… the search for some common denominator …is doomed to Failure. It is a compromise… a minimalist approach …to Right and Wrong.
We are somewhat lucky that our unofficial memorials (like the Republican memorial in Carrickmore) should be contentious, but in reality, they are not. If we have no complaint about the unofficial ones, we can’t complain about the official ones. I have a significant problem with John Mitchel and blogged about the statue years ago. Get rid of it and replace it with Frederick Douglas. It’s not for me to say whether Nicholson in Lisburn is a fitting icon for those people here who quite correctly identify as British. It has nothing to do with me.
The real problem might be the statues that we don’t have, rather than the icons we do have. For example, Sinn Féin and George Floyd. Black Lives Matter. But wouldn’t it be a good thing if there was a statue for Betty Williams and Mairead Corrigan in West Belfast. Or indeed the Maguire Children. And across the Peace Line, I don’t know if there is a memorial to those tortured and killed in romper rooms.
And the good thing about the Republic is that as a 20th century nation, it has British war memorials (a great modern one in Longford), 1798 “pikemen” and 1916 volunteers but on my travels, I notice some great and not so great sculptures….Richard Harris, Terry Wogan, Jack Lynch, Luke Kelly, Joe Dolan and even Arkle the racehorse. The point is that they have passed 2020 (year and vision) vetting.
But older nations such as Britain and the USA have been around for longer and therefore have more problems.
Since American music, movies and TV have dominated my life for sixty years; there was with the honourable exceptions of Jack Benny Show and Phil Silvers Show, hardly any black people on their screens. Nobody in all those westerns or sitcoms until the talking point was a black guy pushing Chief Ironside around in a wheelchair. And others followed, of course. Casting by quota was a norm. Although so many of those “new” shows…Cheers, Frasier, Friends, The Golden Girls, The Big Bang Theory, Young Sheldon… all rather white… and maybe that’s a more realistic and depressing portrayal of how USA really is.
Victors get to erect statues (Churchill) and break statues (Saddam Hussein) and of course there are no Hitler or Nazi statues in Germany. They were after all defeated. But so was Jefferson Davis, Robert E Lee and Bedford Forrest. Or maybe after the brief Reconstruction phase, the South was never really defeated, except maybe in stages from the mid 1960s thru to this week. These nights are the Nights that Really Drove Ole Dixie Down.
The image that USA has of itself…that Melting Pot…has taken a knock.
CoronaVirus has made all TV redundant. But if you tune into Blue Bloods, Special Victims Unit, Chicago PD and The Rookie which were produced in 2019, the cops depicted in those shows are not solving crime in June 2020…they are out there in armour in Times Square, Michigan Avenue and Mulholland Drive. Of course, all “cop shows” have commissioners and city mayors and cops who are bad apples. But can I ever really watch any of these shows as entertainment.
Likewise Britain. Earnest-sounding conservatives tell us they do not share the values of Mr Colston in Bristol and Mr Rhodes in Oxford. They want us to see the history …it is actually in a lot of books as well as the family histories of a lot of British people. When people like Nigel Farage get involved, that whole “history” argument looks a bit weak.
But the statues that are tumbling (Colston) are not nearly as intriguing as the people who are tumbling. John Cleese, Ant and Dec and Little Britain.
Monty Python may have been creative but these were public schoolboys and Oxbridge and with attitudes to match. Ant and Dec are the nation’s sweethearts. And just a few weeks ago we were all singing the Baked Potato Song but whether in terms of Race or attitude to women (the women are grotesques) it is now time to reconsider it.
Of course, it is all getting a bit ridiculous with those cartoonish scouts turn out to defend Baden Powell’s statue.
But Britain which likes to propagate the whole “multicultural” version of itself is struggling to cope. An Olympic style back-slapping won’t cut the mustard now.
On both sides of the Atlantic, black and other minorities are more likely to be badly treated by the police, suffer poverty, have underlying conditions, work on the front line in health care and more likely to die in so doing. And even as Britain recovers economically, the minority populations will be the last to get back to the (old) Normal. But it seems Patience has run out.
In the USA, every generation…say 1960, 1980, 2000, and again in 2020, the Melting Pot is up for scrutiny. In every age, the majority population need to examine their (and the nations) relationship with the minority. What worked in 1980 will not work today. And in each generation, the majority goes thru the angst of “what happened to my country”. I don’t think a new compromise can be found and if it does… well, it will soon be 2040.
Likewise, in 1960, 1980, 2000, Britain has had to re-define its vaunted multicultural society. As recently as the 2012 Olympics, they were parading themselves as a changing society. But for every advance made by ethnic minorities, there is a lot of angry majority community feeling aggrieved. And again I don’t think a compromise is possible… and it will soon be 2040 and Britain will have to do it all again.
On both sides of the Atlantic, it is a dilemma for liberals in the majority community.
And what has this got to do with Norn Iron? Well… not a lot. Cos, there were no liberals in the majority community.
“FEAR FACTORY LIES & how blurred are the details of war? your chances of dying FROM WAR RELATED ACTION based on social math calculations i will perform before your eyes, scott richard” by torbakhopper is licensed under CC BY-ND


sluggerotoole--2020-06-16--Bloomsday blues for an exhausted Pharmacist…

I have had enough .
I need a break and I had planned to get away this week .
The pharmacy was mayhem and madness from a week before lockdown and for a month after .
The pressure has eased but I am exhausted .
I feel like Herman Melville ’ s Ishmael in Moby Dick .
“ Whenever I find myself growing grim about the mouth , whenever it is a damp , drizzly November in my soul… .
I account it high time to get to sea.. ” The last time I felt like this it was a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , a customer struggled through the door holding a large heavy package tight against her chest .
She made her way up through the pharmacy , laid the package on the foot platform of our Keito 8 personal weighing machine , inserted a 50p coin and stood back .
The machine voiced “ measuring your weight and height ” and then , “ printing your result ” .
She took the receipt from the machine , studied it for a moment and , looking somewhat confused , approached me as I stood at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in pounds a Body Mass Index ( BMI ) of 111 was .
The height-weight ratio is more difficult for something 0.3 meters high .
She had just recorded the BMI of her Christmas turkey in its package .
The butcher forgot to mark the weight so I was glad to tell her it was about 23 lbs and calculated the cooking time for what was fine bird indeed .
As she struggled off rather than celebrate this eccentricity , I cruelly could only think of W.C. Fields in an old Christmas film @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ What did you get that turkey for boy ” .
“ I got if for my mother , Sir.
” “ Boy , I know your mother and it ’ s a fair swap ” .
With this thought , I knew it was time for a break !
So in the New Year , I went on pilgrimage to Dublin .
Sweny ’ s Chemist , Lincoln Place Dublin , situated at the back of Trinity College just down from Merrion Square , is famed for its small yet pivotal role @ @ @ @ @ @ @ literary masterpiece the main protagonist , Leopold Bloom , is on a one day odyssey through Edwardian Dublin – the 16th June 1904 .
In Chapter five Bloom visits Sweny ’ s Chemist and Druggist and the pharmacy is described in exquisite Joycian detail .
“ He inhaled the keen reek of drugs , the dusty smell of sponges and loofahs and of time taken up telling your aches and pains ” .
While in the pharmacy Bloom picks up a bar of lemon soap and smells its “ sweet lemony wax ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ then becomes a kind of talisman for the rest of his Dublin Odyssey .
Ulysses , published in 1922 , is possibly the most difficult book in English to read ; I have attempted on more than one occasion and each time I failed .
Sweny ’ s Chemist as a business has gone .
When I arrived outside on a cold and grey Saturday afternoon in January through the window I could see , standing behind a Victorian pharmacy counter and adorned in a white coat , a man in his 60s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ wearing a pair of wire spectacles and looking down at a book .
As I entered I realised he was reading from Joyce to a silent and reverent audience seated on pews in the body of the shop .
In this very small space , cluttered with second-hand books and old pharmacy bottles , there was a respect for a profession and a literary genius in equal measure and I felt somewhat proud .
The pharmacy stopped trading in 2009 but has been retained by a group of loyal volunteers as a shrine @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the world-famous lemon soap .
Second-hand books were an addition to the venture when the volunteers realised that a pharmacy – even a literary famous pharmacy – can not exist on soap sales alone .
The building and fixtures , even the window display , have been preserved perfectly “ by years of neglect ” .
I bought a bar of the famous soap but was disappointed to find it was not the lemon soap I remembered from childhood that not only smelled like a lemon but was shaped like the fruit @ @ @ @ @ @ @ yellow bar .
And when I returned to my dispensing bench refreshed and renewed ready for another year of service to the wonderfully unpredictable folk of West Belfast who would not be out of place in a James Joyce or Herman Melville story or a W.C Fields Film .
I vowed to return on Bloomsday by sadly , not this year .
“ and yes I said yes ” by It ’ sGreg is licensed under CC BY-ND

I have had enough. I need a break and I had planned to get away this week. The pharmacy was mayhem and madness from a week before lockdown and for a month after. The pressure has eased but I am exhausted. I feel like Herman Melville’s Ishmael in Moby Dick. “Whenever I find myself growing grim about the mouth, whenever it is a damp, drizzly November in my soul…. I account it high time to get to sea..”
The last time I felt like this it was a stressful Christmas Eve. Just after midday, a customer struggled through the door holding a large heavy package tight against her chest. She made her way up through the pharmacy, laid the package on the foot platform of our Keito 8 personal weighing machine, inserted a 50p coin and stood back. The machine voiced “measuring your weight and height” and then, “printing your result”.
She took the receipt from the machine, studied it for a moment and, looking somewhat confused, approached me as I stood at the counter. She asked what weight in pounds a Body Mass Index (BMI) of 111 was. The height-weight ratio is more difficult for something 0.3 meters high. She had just recorded the BMI of her Christmas turkey in its package. The butcher forgot to mark the weight so I was glad to tell her it was about 23 lbs and calculated the cooking time for what was fine bird indeed. As she struggled off rather than celebrate this eccentricity, I cruelly could only think of W.C. Fields in an old Christmas film stopping a boy carrying a large turkey “What did you get that turkey for boy”. “I got if for my mother, Sir.” “Boy, I know your mother and it’s a fair swap”. With this thought, I knew it was time for a break!
So in the New Year, I went on pilgrimage to Dublin. Sweny’s Chemist, Lincoln Place Dublin, situated at the back of Trinity College just down from Merrion Square, is famed for its small yet pivotal role in Ulysses. In Joyce’s literary masterpiece the main protagonist, Leopold Bloom, is on a one day odyssey through Edwardian Dublin – the 16th June 1904. In Chapter five Bloom visits Sweny’s Chemist and Druggist and the pharmacy is described in exquisite Joycian detail.
“He inhaled the keen reek of drugs, the dusty smell of sponges and loofahs and of time taken up telling your aches and pains”.
While in the pharmacy Bloom picks up a bar of lemon soap and smells its “sweet lemony wax” and impulse buys. The lemon soap then becomes a kind of talisman for the rest of his Dublin Odyssey.
Ulysses, published in 1922, is possibly the most difficult book in English to read; I have attempted on more than one occasion and each time I failed.
Sweny’s Chemist as a business has gone. When I arrived outside on a cold and grey Saturday afternoon in January through the window I could see, standing behind a Victorian pharmacy counter and adorned in a white coat, a man in his 60s with a shock of white hair, wearing a pair of wire spectacles and looking down at a book. As I entered I realised he was reading from Joyce to a silent and reverent audience seated on pews in the body of the shop. In this very small space, cluttered with second-hand books and old pharmacy bottles, there was a respect for a profession and a literary genius in equal measure and I felt somewhat proud.
The pharmacy stopped trading in 2009 but has been retained by a group of loyal volunteers as a shrine to Joyce and they still sell bars of the world-famous lemon soap. Second-hand books were an addition to the venture when the volunteers realised that a pharmacy – even a literary famous pharmacy – cannot exist on soap sales alone. The building and fixtures, even the window display, have been preserved perfectly “by years of neglect”.
I bought a bar of the famous soap but was disappointed to find it was not the lemon soap I remembered from childhood that not only smelled like a lemon but was shaped like the fruit even down to the dimples in the yellow bar.
And when I returned to my dispensing bench refreshed and renewed ready for another year of service to the wonderfully unpredictable folk of West Belfast who would not be out of place in a James Joyce or Herman Melville story or a W.C Fields Film. I vowed to return on Bloomsday by sadly, not this year.
“and yes I said yes” by It’sGreg is licensed under CC BY-ND


sluggerotoole--2020-06-16--Is a Universal Basic Income from the magic money tree the antidote to recession?

With the mother of all recessions about to hit us we ’ re told , who can be blamed if we search frantically for magic bullets as furlough payments taper off ?
A universal basic income is one of them .
Go for it says veteran commentator Simon Jenkins , usually one to save public money from big public spending schemes .
Rishi Sunak must think radically .
There is no point in saddling individuals , companies or future generations with soaring debt .
The British economy needs customers , not debtors .
It needs cash .
So-called “ printing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in emergencies throughout history .
They are doing it now .
Germany is distributing €300 cash to every child and €6,000 rebates for buying low-carbon cars .
The US is proposing to hand out $ 1,200 to ( most ) adult citizens .
China , Australia , Japan and France have all gone down the handout route .
This is the quickest of economic blood transfusions .
Above all , it does not have to wait on banks .
It is recovery led from the ground up , from the market place .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ one , unless government defines it as “ borrowed ” from itself .
Of course cash handouts can , under reckless regimes , veer into rampant inflation and disaster .
Britain is not reckless , and inflation is close to zero .
But with a soaring unemployment rate and capacity lying idle , the one thing the economy needs is the cash of which its government , if with the best of intentions , starved it three months ago .
Sunak should slash VAT and extend his direct payments to all who need @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The government owes all Britons a universal basic income until this crisis passes .
As for the cost , it should be written off .
Let the bankers howl .
Too good to be true , writes Tim Worstall , a senior fellow of the right wing Adam Smith Institute in the Times Universal basic income ( UBI ) is an excellent idea but it ’ s not going to solve the problem of poverty on our sceptred isle… A UBI set at our national definition of poverty , 60 per cent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ unaffordable .
We ’ re just not rich enough .
The proof is in a new report from the Fraser of Allender Institute , IPPR Scotland and Manchester Metropolitan University on the likely effects of a proposed three-year pilot scheme in Scotland .
The idea is that we tax everyone to pay for all that basic income .
The problem is that the economist Art Laffer was right ( ah the Laffer curve ! )
: there ’ s a tax rate above which revenue collected falls instead of rising .
At best @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 45 per cent in Britain .
Tax more than this and we gain less money .
What ’ s more , universal credit is designed so that , for every pound a claimant earns in excess of their work allowance , their benefits are reduced by 63p .
So we lose work , production and revenue .
So , say advocates of basic income , replace the present welfare system with a simple , untaxed payment to all .
However , as this new report points out , for the basic income to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the top rate of tax would have to be 85 per cent and the base rate 58 per cent .
It simply wouldn ’ t work .
By pushing tax rates so high to raise the necessary revenue we would be gaining less , not more , tax to pay out in UBI .
A basic income set at around the current Jobseeker ’ s Allowance level of £74.35 a week is eminently achievable but that sum doesn ’ t come close to our definition of poverty .
As anyone who has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ systems knows , there is a potential joy in asking them to do something simple rather than administer the current unwieldy structure .
Surely even they would be able to hand out free money ?
Sadly , though , we are left with the truth that the most important part of the phrase “ universal basic income ” is “ basic ” .
We can afford it if it is set at a near-trivial level , not if it ’ s any more than that .
But don ’ t tax to raise @ @ @ @ @ @ @ off ” as “ borrowing from ourselves ” says Jenkins .
How does that work ?
Debt repayment complete by 2070 when my grandchild is 60 ?
“ Trump Victory Greeted With Global Financial Panic ” by Mike Licht , NotionsCapital.com is licensed under CC BY

1930s jobless queue. ” Buddy can you spare a dime”?
With the mother of all recessions about to hit us we’re told, who can be blamed if we search frantically for magic bullets as furlough payments taper off? A universal basic income is one of them. Go for it says veteran commentator Simon Jenkins, usually one to save public money from big public spending schemes.
Rishi Sunak must think radically. There is no point in saddling individuals, companies or future generations with soaring debt. The British economy needs customers, not debtors. It needs cash. So-called “printing money” is what governments have done in emergencies throughout history. They are doing it now. Germany is distributing €300 cash to every child and €6,000 rebates for buying low-carbon cars. The US is proposing to hand out $1,200 to (most) adult citizens. China, Australia, Japan and France have all gone down the handout route. This is the quickest of economic blood transfusions. Above all, it does not have to wait on banks. It is recovery led from the ground up, from the market place.
Who pays for this money? No one, unless government defines it as “borrowed” from itself. Of course cash handouts can, under reckless regimes, veer into rampant inflation and disaster. Britain is not reckless, and inflation is close to zero. But with a soaring unemployment rate and capacity lying idle, the one thing the economy needs is the cash of which its government, if with the best of intentions, starved it three months ago.
Sunak should slash VAT and extend his direct payments to all who need it for the remainder of the year. The government owes all Britons a universal basic income until this crisis passes. As for the cost, it should be written off. Let the bankers howl.
Too good to be true, writes Tim Worstall, a senior fellow of the right wing Adam Smith Institute in the Times
Universal basic income (UBI) is an excellent idea but it’s not going to solve the problem of poverty on our sceptred isle…
A UBI set at our national definition of poverty, 60 per cent of median income, would be simply unaffordable. We’re just not rich enough. The proof is in a new report from the Fraser of Allender Institute, IPPR Scotland and Manchester Metropolitan University on the likely effects of a proposed three-year pilot scheme in Scotland.
The idea is that we tax everyone to pay for all that basic income. The problem is that the economist Art Laffer was right ( ah the Laffer curve !): there’s a tax rate above which revenue collected falls instead of rising. At best guess that income tax rate is about 45 per cent in Britain. Tax more than this and we gain less money. What’s more, universal credit is designed so that, for every pound a claimant earns in excess of their work allowance, their benefits are reduced by 63p. So we lose work, production and revenue. So, say advocates of basic income, replace the present welfare system with a simple, untaxed payment to all.
However, as this new report points out, for the basic income to be 60 per cent of median income, the top rate of tax would have to be 85 per cent and the base rate 58 per cent. It simply wouldn’t work. By pushing tax rates so high to raise the necessary revenue we would be gaining less, not more, tax to pay out in UBI.
A basic income set at around the current Jobseeker’s Allowance level of £74.35 a week is eminently achievable but that sum doesn’t come close to our definition of poverty.
As anyone who has ever dealt with the welfare or tax systems knows, there is a potential joy in asking them to do something simple rather than administer the current unwieldy structure. Surely even they would be able to hand out free money? Sadly, though, we are left with the truth that the most important part of the phrase “universal basic income” is “basic”. We can afford it if it is set at a near-trivial level, not if it’s any more than that.
But don’t tax to raise the revenue, Just “write it off” as “ borrowing from ourselves” says Jenkins. How does that work? Debt repayment complete by 2070 when my grandchild is 60?
“Trump Victory Greeted With Global Financial Panic” by Mike Licht, NotionsCapital.com is licensed under CC BY