sluggerotoole--2020-04-21--Lost Lives Reminds us we can’t Forget…

Lost Lives Reminds us we can’t Forget…

For Terry Maguire , a recent BBC programme , Lost Lives , featuring deaths in the Troubles , triggered a flashback on his way to work .
This caused him to reflect on an incident he witnessed as a schoolboy in Derry in 1972 , making him reassess his long-held view that the Troubles had no personal impact .
As I walked to work in darkness one morning in 2020 , work tasks and concerns swirled unhelpfully in my half-awakened mind .
When I reached the entrance of the still-fortified police station the metal gates creaked open and I glimpsed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on , engine running , waiting to leave .
From across the road , in the car park of a supermarket , an unseen dog began to bark : viscously , loudly , menacingly .
I looked back at the waiting vehicle to see again that ghost .
In the passenger seat a vague outline : pale , gaunt , bloody .
I know it ’ s not there but fear binds me to the spot and I am forced to wait until the car emerges onto the road and speeds off .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ As the grippening fear lessens , I am transported back nearly fifty years and seventy miles .
Back in Derry in 1972 it was a Sunday .
The weather was fine so boarders in our small friendship groups “ did the walks ” .
Confined to the College grounds , in our leisure time we walked anti-clockwise on the drive-way that bordered the large elliptical lawn fronting the main barrack-like school buildings .
We walked away our free time , talking football and pop music and little else .
That Sunday afternoon our @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on the corner of Senior House .
Entering we noticed a group of older boys , not boarders , standing at a derelict structure known as the Windmill .
Inside the toilets a man was loading a rifle in a cubicle so there was going to be shooting and , as 13-year-olds did , we needed a vantage point to watch .
Shooting incidents had been more frequent recently , especially since Bloody Sunday in January .
We were living as school boarders on the periphery of Free Derry , the Bogside area @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
It had been like this since the riots of 1969 .
We lived in a buffer between two forces but it had no effect on our lives .
We lived as seminarians : went to classes , to study and then the rosary before going to bed to sleep and then get up early to go to mass .
The Troubles , now at its zenith , seemed to have no impact on us .
The gunman , more senior than his comrades , exited the toilet-block with the rifle , barrel @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in his group to go down the walks to Bishop Street .
The boy , carrying a smaller rifle , perhaps a .22 , ran from tree to tree then stopped at the wall onto Bishop Street across a small lawn at the back of the grounds-keeper ’ s house .
He lay on the grass and furtively looked over the wall .
We stood awkwardly behind the wrought-iron fire-escape at Senior House .
The initial fork-lightening of excitement was now curtailed by a growing sense of menace and vulnerability and I was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the others at the Windmill and waited on the scout .
It seemed to take forever but finally the scout returned and the armed group hurried down the walks followed by the three of us .
They took up positions at the wall ; the gun was aimed up Bishop Street .
We waited .
During the wait there was complete silence : three men at the wall and three behind trees .
We edged over slowly and gently and surprisingly were ignored by the group , eventually arriving behind the gunman .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ up the empty street toward the junction of Abercorn Road .
Then suddenly , from the corner of Ferguson Street , a soldier on foot-patrol sprinted across Bishop Street while a second soldier took up position at the gable of a house .
It was then the first shot was fired from the SLR .
It was a powerful resounding bang .
We could clearly see the bullet hit just above the soldier smashing the metal down-pipe .
The soldier froze , unclear where fire was coming from .
Then the second shot @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was a splash and he seemed to bounce off the wall .
As he fell , he revealed a red and grey stain on the white wall .
Terrified yet exhilarated I felt both excitement and fear .
There was silent indifference from the gunmen .
They jumped up and ran off up the walks towards the Windmill .
We moved away from the wall certain fire would be returned but it wasn ’ t .
There followed a lock down .
We were corralled inside the assembly hall and when each was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the soldier had died .
I felt nothing .
Perhaps I already knew .
I had seen the death : instantaneous , bloody , violent .
In the days that followed an Alsatian guard-dog came to live in a newly-erected compound in the lawn area leading to the wall .
It barked aggressively and I developed a morbid and irrational fear of it .
Then the nightmares started .
They always started off the same : walking through a dark landscape with a sense of panic and foreboding , then I am chased @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it catches up with me the dog is kept inches from my face , straining on a leash , barking , foaming at the mouth .
The leash is held by a figure in green , blood running from his head down his gaunt face .
That nightmare , and variations of it , stayed with me for years .
Then somehow it seemed to just disappear .
Until this morning : the police station , the barking dog and an illusion of an ghostly figure .
It all came back .
On @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , a 26 year-old married man with a 1 year old son , was killed by members of the Official IRA who fired from the grounds of St Columb ’ s College .
In 1979 two men were found guilty of his murder ( Source : Lost Lives ) “ brothers in arms ” by Robert Couse-Baker is licensed under CC BY

For Terry Maguire, a recent BBC programme, Lost Lives, featuring deaths in the Troubles, triggered a flashback on his way to work. This caused him to reflect on an incident he witnessed as a schoolboy in Derry in 1972, making him reassess his long-held view that the Troubles had no personal impact.
As I walked to work in darkness one morning in 2020, work tasks and concerns swirled unhelpfully in my half-awakened mind. When I reached the entrance of the still-fortified police station the metal gates creaked open and I glimpsed inside: a parked vehicle, headlights on, engine running, waiting to leave. From across the road, in the car park of a supermarket, an unseen dog began to bark: viscously, loudly, menacingly. I looked back at the waiting vehicle to see again that ghost. In the passenger seat a vague outline: pale, gaunt, bloody. I know it’s not there but fear binds me to the spot and I am forced to wait until the car emerges onto the road and speeds off.
I had triggered again that trauma. As the grippening fear lessens, I am transported back nearly fifty years and seventy miles. Back in Derry in 1972 it was a Sunday. The weather was fine so boarders in our small friendship groups “did the walks”. Confined to the College grounds, in our leisure time we walked anti-clockwise on the drive-way that bordered the large elliptical lawn fronting the main barrack-like school buildings. We walked away our free time, talking football and pop music and little else.
That Sunday afternoon our group of three arrived at the toilets on the corner of Senior House. Entering we noticed a group of older boys, not boarders, standing at a derelict structure known as the Windmill. Inside the toilets a man was loading a rifle in a cubicle so there was going to be shooting and, as 13-year-olds did, we needed a vantage point to watch.
Shooting incidents had been more frequent recently, especially since Bloody Sunday in January. We were living as school boarders on the periphery of Free Derry, the Bogside area without government service or law and order. It had been like this since the riots of 1969. We lived in a buffer between two forces but it had no effect on our lives. We lived as seminarians: went to classes, to study and then the rosary before going to bed to sleep and then get up early to go to mass. The Troubles, now at its zenith, seemed to have no impact on us.
The gunman, more senior than his comrades, exited the toilet-block with the rifle, barrel held skywards. He called to one in his group to go down the walks to Bishop Street. The boy, carrying a smaller rifle, perhaps a .22, ran from tree to tree then stopped at the wall onto Bishop Street across a small lawn at the back of the grounds-keeper’s house. He lay on the grass and furtively looked over the wall. We stood awkwardly behind the wrought-iron fire-escape at Senior House. The initial fork-lightening of excitement was now curtailed by a growing sense of menace and vulnerability and I was experiencing real fear. The gunman joined the others at the Windmill and waited on the scout.
It seemed to take forever but finally the scout returned and the armed group hurried down the walks followed by the three of us. They took up positions at the wall; the gun was aimed up Bishop Street. We waited. During the wait there was complete silence: three men at the wall and three behind trees. We edged over slowly and gently and surprisingly were ignored by the group, eventually arriving behind the gunman. We watched, as he did, up the empty street toward the junction of Abercorn Road.
Then suddenly, from the corner of Ferguson Street, a soldier on foot-patrol sprinted across Bishop Street while a second soldier took up position at the gable of a house. It was then the first shot was fired from the SLR. It was a powerful resounding bang. We could clearly see the bullet hit just above the soldier smashing the metal down-pipe. The soldier froze, unclear where fire was coming from. Then the second shot. This hit his head. There was a splash and he seemed to bounce off the wall. As he fell, he revealed a red and grey stain on the white wall.
Terrified yet exhilarated I felt both excitement and fear. There was silent indifference from the gunmen. They jumped up and ran off up the walks towards the Windmill. We moved away from the wall certain fire would be returned but it wasn’t.
There followed a lock down. We were corralled inside the assembly hall and when each was accounted for, we were told that the soldier had died. I felt nothing. Perhaps I already knew. I had seen the death: instantaneous, bloody, violent.
In the days that followed an Alsatian guard-dog came to live in a newly-erected compound in the lawn area leading to the wall. It barked aggressively and I developed a morbid and irrational fear of it. Then the nightmares started. They always started off the same: walking through a dark landscape with a sense of panic and foreboding, then I am chased by an angry large dog. When it catches up with me the dog is kept inches from my face, straining on a leash, barking, foaming at the mouth. The leash is held by a figure in green, blood running from his head down his gaunt face.
That nightmare, and variations of it, stayed with me for years. Then somehow it seemed to just disappear. Until this morning: the police station, the barking dog and an illusion of an ghostly figure. It all came back.
On Sunday 16th April 1972 Corporal Gerald Bristow, a 26 year-old married man with a 1 year old son, was killed by members of the Official IRA who fired from the grounds of St Columb’s College. In 1979 two men were found guilty of his murder (Source: Lost Lives)
“brothers in arms” by Robert Couse-Baker is licensed under CC BY


sluggerotoole--2020-04-21--There should be space only for the willing within the new Irish government

There ’ s a fascinatingly quiet war continuing in the Republic over who is going to be in the next government .
Fianna Fail and Fine Gael closed the persistent gap between them with a particularly laconic and open-textured framework document .
Michael Taft captures an excellent description of the document and its purpose as “ a colouring book and smaller parties are being invited to fill in the blank spaces ” but he also adds , they “ won ’ t own the book , write the story or even get to draw the picture ” .
This , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s presently occupying Labour , the Soc Dems and the Greens .
The Covid19 emergency is also complicating the mix by massively shifting the context and has effectively cut off the option of a quick second election .
This only deepens the dilemma .
Michael points out ( rightly ) that as two big parties vie for every ministerial seat very little will come to any or each of these progressive parties .
Such is your fate if you can barely scrape beyond single figures in TDs .
On the other hand , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ government may become after the worst of the crisis is through to collapse offers no clear guarantees either .
If it does and the patterns of February continue , SF will profit at the expense of the progressives .
If it doesn ’ t it may happen that FF and FG were emboldened to take steps to tackle many of the generational issues that have been bugging the younger demographics since after the onset of the Celtic Tiger ( which both have generally ignored ) .
To put it frankly the two have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of countercyclical expansionary budgets the country has arguably needed since the crash of 2008 , but which was unlikely to be tolerated by the central bankers in the ECB .
If none of the progressive parties step forward then their place will be taken up by honest independents who put their parish before any other consideration .
Once bought ( in ) they will remain bought ( in ) and the moment will inevitably pass .
Each will have good reasons not to venture forward but rather stay on the opposition benches and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ kind of a coalition headed up by Sinn Fein .
This may be attractive for young Greens whose disdain for FF and FG is generational .
And yet the only party which opposed a carbon tax was Sinn Fein .
Michael ( overly generously in my view ) counts them as part of the progressive block , but the truth is that in order to build the strength it needs , SF knows it must swing both ways .
The embarrassing truth is that the Irish left has rarely existed outside the metro @ @ @ @ @ @ @ wagon to some party on the right to get a progressive agenda on the slate .
In this case , SF .
In any new election , they ’ d eat February ’ s gains .
Going forward , a single health system is on the cards , a living wage , a green new deal and a referendum on land ownership with or without the progressive parties .
Covid19 has shifted both the context for government formation and its likely content , radically .
Progressive participation would undoubtedly improve the quality of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the ‘ team of rivals ’ scenario that Eoghan Harris outlines in his column last week can be made to work .
It ’ s coming time for people to wo/man up .
That said , much of the plan for government should write itself .
Nothing less than utter transformation will suffice .
But as David Steven and Alex Evans note in the global context it is more a question of shooting the rapids than planned expansion : “ A boat can take many paths through whitewater , but most of them @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , or capsized and its occupants dumped into the rapids .
As we wrote in 2010 , it is the river , not the paddler , which dictates the speed with which the boat moves .
There is no opportunity to take a timeout to rethink strategy or to reverse direction.
” The only option is to keep paddling , even as rough water makes it harder to control the boat .
Above all , the challenge is a collective one : The direction of the boat “ depends not on the weakest @ @ @ @ @ @ @ but on the efforts of all the rowers , ” as Columbia economist Scott Barrett wrote in his book “ Why Cooperate ?
” There should be space for all of the willing within the new government , which means resilient paddlers who are prepared to respond positively to whatever jagged rocks the white waters will throw up into their faces .
I don ’ t envy them their various choices .
Photo by teacherfuller is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA

There’s a fascinatingly quiet war continuing in the Republic over who is going to be in the next government. Fianna Fail and Fine Gael closed the persistent gap between them with a particularly laconic and open-textured framework document.
Michael Taft captures an excellent description of the document and its purpose as “a colouring book and smaller parties are being invited to fill in the blank spaces” but he also adds, they “won’t own the book, write the story or even get to draw the picture”.
This, in a nutshell, is what’s presently occupying Labour, the Soc Dems and the Greens. The Covid19 emergency is also complicating the mix by massively shifting the context and has effectively cut off the option of a quick second election.
This only deepens the dilemma. Michael points out (rightly) that as two big parties vie for every ministerial seat very little will come to any or each of these progressive parties. Such is your fate if you can barely scrape beyond single figures in TDs.
On the other hand, waiting for the rickety bridge that the government may become after the worst of the crisis is through to collapse offers no clear guarantees either. If it does and the patterns of February continue, SF will profit at the expense of the progressives.
If it doesn’t it may happen that FF and FG were emboldened to take steps to tackle many of the generational issues that have been bugging the younger demographics since after the onset of the Celtic Tiger (which both have generally ignored).
To put it frankly the two have little choice but to embrace the kind of countercyclical expansionary budgets the country has arguably needed since the crash of 2008, but which was unlikely to be tolerated by the central bankers in the ECB.
If none of the progressive parties step forward then their place will be taken up by honest independents who put their parish before any other consideration. Once bought (in) they will remain bought (in) and the moment will inevitably pass.
Each will have good reasons not to venture forward but rather stay on the opposition benches and try to build and wait for some kind of a coalition headed up by Sinn Fein. This may be attractive for young Greens whose disdain for FF and FG is generational.
And yet the only party which opposed a carbon tax was Sinn Fein. Michael (overly generously in my view) counts them as part of the progressive block, but the truth is that in order to build the strength it needs, SF knows it must swing both ways.
The embarrassing truth is that the Irish left has rarely existed outside the metro areas and so has always hitched its wagon to some party on the right to get a progressive agenda on the slate. In this case, SF. In any new election, they’d eat February’s gains.
Going forward, a single health system is on the cards, a living wage, a green new deal and a referendum on land ownership with or without the progressive parties. Covid19 has shifted both the context for government formation and its likely content, radically.
Progressive participation would undoubtedly improve the quality of government going forward. But only if the ‘team of rivals’ scenario that Eoghan Harris outlines in his column last week can be made to work. It’s coming time for people to wo/man up.
That said, much of the plan for government should write itself. Nothing less than utter transformation will suffice. But as David Steven and Alex Evans note in the global context it is more a question of shooting the rapids than planned expansion:
“A boat can take many paths through whitewater, but most of them end with it destroyed on the rocks, or capsized and its occupants dumped into the rapids. As we wrote in 2010, it is the river, not the paddler, which dictates the speed with which the boat moves. There is no opportunity to take a timeout to rethink strategy or to reverse direction.” The only option is to keep paddling, even as rough water makes it harder to control the boat. Above all, the challenge is a collective one: The direction of the boat “depends not on the weakest rower, nor on the strongest, but on the efforts of all the rowers,” as Columbia economist Scott Barrett wrote in his book “Why Cooperate?”
There should be space for all of the willing within the new government, which means resilient paddlers who are prepared to respond positively to whatever jagged rocks the white waters will throw up into their faces. I don’t envy them their various choices.
Photo by teacherfuller is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA


sluggerotoole--2020-04-22--The FT estimates actual UK Covid-19 deaths at 41,000. Also QUB research shows Republic’s Covid-19 de

The FT estimates actual UK Covid-19 deaths at 41,000. Also QUB research shows Republic’s Covid-19 death rate is two-thirds that in the North…

Who knows what to believe anymore .
There is so much data floating around it would make your head spin .
The latest number-crunching from the number wizards over at the FT has the actual UK death rate over twice as high at the official rate .
The coronavirus pandemic has already caused as many as 41,000 deaths in the UK , according to a Financial Times analysis of the latest data from the Office for National Statistics .
The estimate is more than double the official figure of 17,337 released by ministers on Tuesday , which is updated daily @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in hospitals after testing positive for the virus .
The FT extrapolation , based on figures from the ONS that were also published on Tuesday , includes deaths that occurred outside hospitals updated to reflect recent mortality trends .
If these figures stand up it will put further pressure on the Government and the handling of the crisis .
But there is some positive news in that we may already have passed the peak : Over in the Irish Times Michael Tomlinson emeritus professor of social policy at Queen ’ s University Belfast @ @ @ @ @ @ @ : The graphs show death rates per million of population for the North and the Republic and also hospital-based deaths .
In both examples the Republic ’ s death rate is two-thirds that in the North .
This is the clearest evidence we have that the different approaches to tackling the Covid-19 outbreak are resulting in different outcomes .
This may change as the pandemic progresses but for now it is reasonable to assume that the North ’ s higher death rates result from lower rates of testing , the lack of contact @ @ @ @ @ @ @ measures compared with the Republic .
The evidence underlines the case for co-ordinated action across the island to hunt down the virus through high levels of testing and contact tracing and for stronger public-health surveillance at points of entry The whole should we have followed the London lead VS the Dublin lead has descended into the usual Orange and Green tribal issue .
My own pragmatic view is we are an Island , it is obvious to me that we should have been coordinating on an all Island basis .
But I will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ could be other factors at play here .
General wellbeing and even social status are important factors in the mix .
It might be the differences are down to people in the North being less healthy and poorer than people in the South .
Poverty can take ten years of your life .
Northern Ireland has very high levels of obesity , smoking and heart disease – all important underlying conditions for Covid-19 mortality .
Stress also is very damaging , a lot of the victims would have gone through the troubles and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ But this is only my view , epidemiologists will be examining Covid-19 for years to come .

Who knows what to believe anymore. There is so much data floating around it would make your head spin. The latest number-crunching from the number wizards over at the FT has the actual UK death rate over twice as high at the official rate.
The coronavirus pandemic has already caused as many as 41,000 deaths in the UK, according to a Financial Times analysis of the latest data from the Office for National Statistics. The estimate is more than double the official figure of 17,337 released by ministers on Tuesday, which is updated daily and only counts those who have died in hospitals after testing positive for the virus. The FT extrapolation, based on figures from the ONS that were also published on Tuesday, includes deaths that occurred outside hospitals updated to reflect recent mortality trends.
If these figures stand up it will put further pressure on the Government and the handling of the crisis. But there is some positive news in that we may already have passed the peak:
The analysis also supports emerging evidence that the peak of deaths in the UK occurred on April 8 with the mortality rate gradually trending lower since, despite the 823 hospital deaths announced on Tuesday, which were sharply up on the 449 in the previous 24 hours.
Over in the Irish Times Michael Tomlinson emeritus professor of social policy at Queen’s University Belfast looks into the data North and South:
The graphs show death rates per million of population for the North and the Republic and also hospital-based deaths. In both examples the Republic’s death rate is two-thirds that in the North. This is the clearest evidence we have that the different approaches to tackling the Covid-19 outbreak are resulting in different outcomes. This may change as the pandemic progresses but for now it is reasonable to assume that the North’s higher death rates result from lower rates of testing, the lack of contact tracing and the slower application of lockdown measures compared with the Republic. The evidence underlines the case for co-ordinated action across the island to hunt down the virus through high levels of testing and contact tracing and for stronger public-health surveillance at points of entry
The whole should we have followed the London lead VS the Dublin lead has descended into the usual Orange and Green tribal issue. My own pragmatic view is we are an Island, it is obvious to me that we should have been coordinating on an all Island basis.
But I will also add health is complex. There could be other factors at play here. General wellbeing and even social status are important factors in the mix. It might be the differences are down to people in the North being less healthy and poorer than people in the South. Poverty can take ten years of your life. Northern Ireland has very high levels of obesity, smoking and heart disease – all important underlying conditions for Covid-19 mortality. Stress also is very damaging, a lot of the victims would have gone through the troubles and those experiences affect you for life. But this is only my view, epidemiologists will be examining Covid-19 for years to come.


sluggerotoole--2020-04-22--#Covid19 is part a scientific and part a political problem…

As Brian notes ‘ there is so much data floating around it would make your head spin ’ .
This is because we still don ’ t know what we are up against .
This piece in Slate draws lessons from the US and warns against the false certainties this ‘ infodemic ’ can bring : …those communicating scientific information are at risk not only of oversimplifying the misinformation problem itself but also of failing to recognize and address other factors that complicate efforts to communicate effectively about COVID-19 .
In particular , the seductively simple directive to be “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ heart of science communication , obscures the reality that accuracy is a tenuous notion during a crisis such as this , in which uncertainty reigns .
Science that was considered correct at the outset will likely turn out to be incorrect or incomplete , making it difficult to draw a bright line between misinformation and science that is legitimately contested .
Further , just as the public health questions that arise during a pandemic go far beyond numbers such as death rates to include matters of social inequity and ailing health care infrastructure @ @ @ @ @ @ @ infodemic are much broader than the mere existence of falsehood .
[ Emphasis added ] They lay out four concerns under the following headings : • Scientific facts and uncertainties are moving targets .
“ COVID-19 studies are being pre-published and published—and then sometimes retracted or disproven—at such an accelerated pace that even experts struggle to separate signal from noise.
” • The COVID-19 information environment is partisan .
“ …there is ample scientific evidence that maintaining a heavy focus on accuracy in politically charged contexts is at best only partially effective and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ get political without getting partisan .
“ Broad trust in science does not mean that people across the political divide trust the same science or scientists .
Fauci , known for frequently contradicting the president , was recently forced to enhance his security detail after receiving death threats from conspiracy theorists holding that he is a “ Deep State ” operative seeking to overthrow Trump ” .
• The accelerated wickedness of COVID-19 .
“ Safe vaccines are unlikely to be widely available until well into 2021 , and therapeutic and social interventions @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as the virus spreads .
Meanwhile , societies are faced with difficult decisions that science alone can not answer.
” This last is problematic .
Within the island , two health jurisdictions which despite the signing of a memorandum ( which Ian suggests is more about communication than sharing data and political thinking ) we still aren ’ t working together .
Taking people with you means it is not just about pointing out differentials in data but sharing data and views and trying ( whatever the failures and past mistakes ) to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ release of the lockdown mechanism .
After a sticky start First and Deputy First Ministers have got a comms strategy together ( though it would help if Gerry gave his Junior minister the same memo Michelle got ) .
But overall we must shoot the rapids as the south .
We do need clarity , but less rigidity .
What we don ’ t need is Trumpian politics of beggar thy neighbour .
We are indeed all in this arc together for at least another year and maybe more .
And , as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ even end there : A commonplace when discussing military intervention is for people to say that we mustn ’ t go in until we know how to get out .
Yet the truth is that you almost never know what your exit is going to be when you enter .
You do what you have to do at the beginning , and then cope with the consequences .
America didn ’ t appreciate , when it was pulled in to the European conflict after Pearl Harbor , that it would still have troops @ @ @ @ @ @ @ years later .
Indeed .
And if you are still obsessing over the early ( relatively small divergences between the two parts of the island , we can also learn from the very different approach taken by Sweden : “ Novel Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 ” by NIAID is licensed under CC BY

As Brian notes ‘there is so much data floating around it would make your head spin’. This is because we still don’t know what we are up against. This piece in Slate draws lessons from the US and warns against the false certainties this ‘infodemic’ can bring:
…those communicating scientific information are at risk not only of oversimplifying the misinformation problem itself but also of failing to recognize and address other factors that complicate efforts to communicate effectively about COVID-19. In particular, the seductively simple directive to be “accurate,” which lies at the heart of science communication, obscures the reality that accuracy is a tenuous notion during a crisis such as this, in which uncertainty reigns. Science that was considered correct at the outset will likely turn out to be incorrect or incomplete, making it difficult to draw a bright line between misinformation and science that is legitimately contested. Further, just as the public health questions that arise during a pandemic go far beyond numbers such as death rates to include matters of social inequity and ailing health care infrastructure, the communication issues that complicate an infodemic are much broader than the mere existence of falsehood. [Emphasis added]
They lay out four concerns under the following headings:
Scientific facts and uncertainties are moving targets. “COVID-19 studies are being pre-published and published—and then sometimes retracted or disproven—at such an accelerated pace that even experts struggle to separate signal from noise.” The COVID-19 information environment is partisan. “…there is ample scientific evidence that maintaining a heavy focus on accuracy in politically charged contexts is at best only partially effective and at worst counterproductive.” Science must get political without getting partisan. “Broad trust in science does not mean that people across the political divide trust the same science or scientists. Fauci, known for frequently contradicting the president, was recently forced to enhance his security detail after receiving death threats from conspiracy theorists holding that he is a “Deep State” operative seeking to overthrow Trump”. The accelerated wickedness of COVID-19. “Safe vaccines are unlikely to be widely available until well into 2021, and therapeutic and social interventions are being developed by trial and error as the virus spreads. Meanwhile, societies are faced with difficult decisions that science alone cannot answer.”
This last is problematic. Within the island, two health jurisdictions which despite the signing of a memorandum (which Ian suggests is more about communication than sharing data and political thinking) we still aren’t working together.
Taking people with you means it is not just about pointing out differentials in data but sharing data and views and trying (whatever the failures and past mistakes) to find ways to align things like the release of the lockdown mechanism.
After a sticky start First and Deputy First Ministers have got a comms strategy together (though it would help if Gerry gave his Junior minister the same memo Michelle got). But overall we must shoot the rapids as the south. We do need clarity, but less rigidity.
What we don’t need is Trumpian politics of beggar thy neighbour. We are indeed all in this arc together for at least another year and maybe more. And, as Danny Finklestein notes, it may not even end there:
A commonplace when discussing military intervention is for people to say that we mustn’t go in until we know how to get out. Yet the truth is that you almost never know what your exit is going to be when you enter. You do what you have to do at the beginning, and then cope with the consequences. America didn’t appreciate, when it was pulled in to the European conflict after Pearl Harbor, that it would still have troops in a superpower stand-off in Berlin 50 years later.
Indeed. And if you are still obsessing over the early (relatively small divergences between the two parts of the island, we can also learn from the very different approach taken by Sweden:
“Novel Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2” by NIAID is licensed under CC BY


sluggerotoole--2020-04-22--Watch the new Michael Moore movie Planet of the Humans for free…

Today is Earth Day and thanks to Covid-19 the planet has been getting a rest recently from the ravages of human damage .
There is a popular theory in computer circles that as Artificial Intelligence gets more clever it will eventually realise that the best way to save the planet is to kill all the humans .
As I typed that sentence I realised that is also the plot of the Terminator Movie… Anyway Michael Moore has a new movie out and the celebrate Earth Day you can watch it for free .
I do enjoy his movies but personally @ @ @ @ @ @ @ am not sure I can handle a documentary about how we are all killing the planet .
Can someone watch it and let us know if it ’ s an safe watch or will it just depress us all ?
Michael Moore and director Jeff Gibbs present a documentary that dares to say what no one else will this Earth Day — that we are losing the battle to stop climate change on planet earth because we are following leaders who have taken us down the wrong road — selling out the green @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
This film is the wake-up call to the reality we are afraid to face : that in the midst of a human-caused extinction event , the environmental movement ’ s answer is to push for techno-fixes and band-aids .
It ’ s too little , too late .
Removed from the debate is the only thing that MIGHT save us : getting a grip on our out-of-control human presence and consumption .
Why is this not THE issue ?
Because that would be bad for profits , bad for business .
Have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ green ” illusions , that are anything but green , because we ’ re scared that this is the end—and we ’ ve pinned all our hopes on biomass , wind turbines , and electric cars ?
No amount of batteries are going to save us , warns director Jeff Gibbs ( lifelong environmentalist and co-producer of “ Fahrenheit 9/11 ” and “ Bowling for Columbine ” ) .
This urgent , must-see movie , a full-frontal assault on our sacred cows , is guaranteed to generate anger , debate , and , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ survival in a new way—before it ’ s too late .
Music by : Radiohead , King Crimson , Emerson , Lake & Palmer , Blank & Jones , If These Trees Could Talk , Valentina Lisitsa , Culprit 1 , Patrick O ’ hearn , The Torquays , Nigel Stanford , and many more .
“ TTL_Studios-Michael_Moore-2075 ” by Montclair Film is licensed under CC BY

Today is Earth Day and thanks to Covid-19 the planet has been getting a rest recently from the ravages of human damage. There is a popular theory in computer circles that as Artificial Intelligence gets more clever it will eventually realise that the best way to save the planet is to kill all the humans. As I typed that sentence I realised that is also the plot of the Terminator Movie…
Anyway Michael Moore has a new movie out and the celebrate Earth Day you can watch it for free. I do enjoy his movies but personally in the present state of anxiety I am not sure I can handle a documentary about how we are all killing the planet. Can someone watch it and let us know if it’s an safe watch or will it just depress us all?
Michael Moore and director Jeff Gibbs present a documentary that dares to say what no one else will this Earth Day — that we are losing the battle to stop climate change on planet earth because we are following leaders who have taken us down the wrong road — selling out the green movement to wealthy interests and corporate America. This film is the wake-up call to the reality we are afraid to face: that in the midst of a human-caused extinction event, the environmental movement’s answer is to push for techno-fixes and band-aids. It’s too little, too late. Removed from the debate is the only thing that MIGHT save us: getting a grip on our out-of-control human presence and consumption. Why is this not THE issue? Because that would be bad for profits, bad for business. Have we environmentalists fallen for illusions, “green” illusions, that are anything but green, because we’re scared that this is the end—and we’ve pinned all our hopes on biomass, wind turbines, and electric cars? No amount of batteries are going to save us, warns director Jeff Gibbs (lifelong environmentalist and co-producer of “Fahrenheit 9/11” and “Bowling for Columbine”). This urgent, must-see movie, a full-frontal assault on our sacred cows, is guaranteed to generate anger, debate, and, hopefully, a willingness to see our survival in a new way—before it’s too late. Featuring: Al Gore, Bill McKibben, Richard Branson, Robert F Kennedy Jr., Michael Bloomberg, Van Jones, Vinod Khosla, Koch Brothers, Vandana Shiva, General Motors, 350.org, Arnold Schwarzenegger, Sierra Club, the Union of Concerned Scientists, Nature Conservancy, Elon Musk, Tesla. Music by: Radiohead, King Crimson, Emerson, Lake & Palmer, Blank & Jones, If These Trees Could Talk, Valentina Lisitsa, Culprit 1, Patrick O’hearn, The Torquays, Nigel Stanford, and many more.
“TTL_Studios-Michael_Moore-2075” by Montclair Film is licensed under CC BY


sluggerotoole--2020-04-23--SDLP suggestion for saving the press welcome, but publishers must dig deep too

Earlier this month I uploaded two articles here asking how our local press might emerge from lockdown and sharing my concerns about the ability of some of them to do so .
Since then the future of regional and local newspapers all over the UK has become a pretty hot topic , with staff being furloughed at most papers and others even indefinitely suspending publication .
Local journalists – including quite a few very good ones of my acquaintance – have been tweeting regularly with online subscription offers to at least keep some revenue coming .
Very worrying times , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and weekly press , I share those concerns .
They are justified .
I was interested to read SDLP MLA Matthew O ’ Toole ’ s call for the Assembly to take urgent action to help save and safeguard the future of the embattled local and regional press in Northern Ireland .
Matthew makes a pretty compelling case for local press and the part they play within local , often small and rural communities , and his intentions are clearly positively motivated .
They need to be fully considered .
The essence of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for local publishers , “ subject to 50 percent of savings being reinvested in either recruiting new journalists or developing new digital products ” .
That ’ s an idea well worthy of support and the Executive would do well to implement it at the earliest opportunity .
But a rates holiday , while highly beneficial to our independent , local owned publishers , wouldn ’ t be as beneficial as in the past to some of those owned and run by UK based corporates .
I know of one publisher here that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in recent years as part of a relentless centralisation ( cost-cutting ) drive so they won ’ t be able to avail of this help .
That ’ s a stark example but it ’ s not the only one .
The closure of those offices is a major symptom of the problems facing some of our long-established local papers .
The harsh reality is that these brands ( and that ’ s how they are coldly viewed by their remote owners ) were bought as cash cows in the years immediately prior @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and advertising revenues were hitting all time record highs .
But since the middle of the last decade , costs have been taken out of local offices to the point where staffing levels have undermined their quality and their ability to serve their host communities with any sort of effectiveness .
There is so much shared content between papers and in some cases page after page of generic “ lifestyle ” content that bears no relation and is of little or no interest to the local communities they ostensibly serve .
In the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to any meaningful degree .
Many of them don ’ t even have Editors !
It ’ s that bad .
Honestly .
So that rate rebate will help some good , independent publishers but it wouldn ’ t scratch the surface elsewhere .
Another suggestion by Matthew is that the Executive should “ undertake to prioritise key local media in advertising buying , and publicly release its spending figures.
” Again , this has merit .
Public Notices and public sector job advertising still use local press heavily .
But one of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the past few years is that the Executive placed a virtual embargo on campaign advertising spend with only road safety ( generally a television spend ) surviving at anything approaching previous levels .
This was done because of the pressure Stormont was under to reduce any unnecessary or peripheral spending .
I strongly agree with O ’ Toole that when government IS spending it should strongly include the indigenous press .
Not least because it still works .
But it would be hard for any Stormont department to advertise just to help @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a story to be told and a message to be conveyed otherwise it ’ s no more than a subvention .
Of course , a side effect of deliberately increasing Government spend with local press is that it creates the very real danger that politicians – both locally and centrally – will expect some payback for this .
Over the years as a Commercial Director at various newspapers , I have been accosted at social functions by senior representatives of most of our major parties ( well , our two major parties ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it ) editors have given them or over bias ( or lack of it ) shown .
Parties have dangled election ad spends before publishers with the expectation of positive news coverage .
That ’ s not a uniquely Northern Irish thing .
I was once summoned to meet a high-ranking officer of a Scottish City Council to be warned of the potential commercial impact of our imminent appointment of an Editor who had come into conflict with a council elsewhere in Scotland .
He still got the job , but that threat @ @ @ @ @ @ @ if lost could have cost the company dozens of employees .
But that ’ s the danger of being in the debt of politicians .
Overall , I would be supportive of the intent and some of O ’ Toole ’ s recommendations , including no brainers like improving the ease of home delivery in more remote areas with older communities .
But to receive any level of public subsidy or support , publishers need to play their part .
I don ’ t think that would be a problem with locally owned @ @ @ @ @ @ @ within their means without damaging quality or needlessly losing jobs .
The papers here that have suspended publication are all locally owned , but they are generally good papers with owners dedicated to maintaining their place in their communities .
They deserve consideration and whatever help is possible and reasonable .
But corporate owners need to be brought to book before we even consider public investment .
Also , we need to be realistic .
Some papers will close .
That ’ s nothing to do with Covid-19 .
Quite simply some of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the point where they are beyond salvation .
They sell so few papers and their paginations and advertiser base are so low that there is simply no real demand for them .
Also , in some towns that have traditionally sustained a Protestant paper and a Catholic one , that ’ s a less practical model than in the past as the smaller of the two papers is often now close to unsustainable in towns with a dwindling population .
There will always be natural attrition and that ’ s something we need @ @ @ @ @ @ @ welcome this intervention on behalf of the local press , But the help he proposes shouldn ’ t take any of the onus away from some publishers to simply do a better job !
Photo by geralt is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA

Earlier this month I uploaded two articles here asking how our local press might emerge from lockdown and sharing my concerns about the ability of some of them to do so. Since then the future of regional and local newspapers all over the UK has become a pretty hot topic, with staff being furloughed at most papers and others even indefinitely suspending publication.
Local journalists – including quite a few very good ones of my acquaintance – have been tweeting regularly with online subscription offers to at least keep some revenue coming. Very worrying times, and as a veteran of both daily and weekly press, I share those concerns. They are justified.
I was interested to read SDLP MLA Matthew O’Toole’s call for the Assembly to take urgent action to help save and safeguard the future of the embattled local and regional press in Northern Ireland. Matthew makes a pretty compelling case for local press and the part they play within local, often small and rural communities, and his intentions are clearly positively motivated. They need to be fully considered.
The essence of the proposal is a one-year rates holiday for local publishers, “subject to 50 percent of savings being reinvested in either recruiting new journalists or developing new digital products”. That’s an idea well worthy of support and the Executive would do well to implement it at the earliest opportunity.
But a rates holiday, while highly beneficial to our independent, local owned publishers, wouldn’t be as beneficial as in the past to some of those owned and run by UK based corporates. I know of one publisher here that has closed at least ten local offices in recent years as part of a relentless centralisation (cost-cutting) drive so they won’t be able to avail of this help. That’s a stark example but it’s not the only one.
The closure of those offices is a major symptom of the problems facing some of our long-established local papers. The harsh reality is that these brands (and that’s how they are coldly viewed by their remote owners) were bought as cash cows in the years immediately prior to the internet when sales were good and advertising revenues were hitting all time record highs.
But since the middle of the last decade, costs have been taken out of local offices to the point where staffing levels have undermined their quality and their ability to serve their host communities with any sort of effectiveness. There is so much shared content between papers and in some cases page after page of generic “lifestyle” content that bears no relation and is of little or no interest to the local communities they ostensibly serve. In the meantime, courts are not being reported to any meaningful degree.
Many of them don’t even have Editors! It’s that bad. Honestly. So that rate rebate will help some good, independent publishers but it wouldn’t scratch the surface elsewhere.
Another suggestion by Matthew is that the Executive should “undertake to prioritise key local media in advertising buying, and publicly release its spending figures.” Again, this has merit. Public Notices and public sector job advertising still use local press heavily.
But one of the things that have undermined local press in the past few years is that the Executive placed a virtual embargo on campaign advertising spend with only road safety (generally a television spend) surviving at anything approaching previous levels. This was done because of the pressure Stormont was under to reduce any unnecessary or peripheral spending.
I strongly agree with O’Toole that when government IS spending it should strongly include the indigenous press. Not least because it still works. But it would be hard for any Stormont department to advertise just to help the media. There has to be a story to be told and a message to be conveyed otherwise it’s no more than a subvention.
Of course, a side effect of deliberately increasing Government spend with local press is that it creates the very real danger that politicians – both locally and centrally – will expect some payback for this. Over the years as a Commercial Director at various newspapers, I have been accosted at social functions by senior representatives of most of our major parties (well, our two major parties) over coverage (or alleged lack of it) editors have given them or over bias (or lack of it) shown.
Parties have dangled election ad spends before publishers with the expectation of positive news coverage. That’s not a uniquely Northern Irish thing. I was once summoned to meet a high-ranking officer of a Scottish City Council to be warned of the potential commercial impact of our imminent appointment of an Editor who had come into conflict with a council elsewhere in Scotland. He still got the job, but that threat related to a level of spend that if lost could have cost the company dozens of employees. But that’s the danger of being in the debt of politicians.
Overall, I would be supportive of the intent and some of O’Toole’s recommendations, including no brainers like improving the ease of home delivery in more remote areas with older communities. But to receive any level of public subsidy or support, publishers need to play their part.
I don’t think that would be a problem with locally owned operations that have always tried to live within their means without damaging quality or needlessly losing jobs. The papers here that have suspended publication are all locally owned, but they are generally good papers with owners dedicated to maintaining their place in their communities. They deserve consideration and whatever help is possible and reasonable. But corporate owners need to be brought to book before we even consider public investment.
Also, we need to be realistic. Some papers will close. That’s nothing to do with Covid-19. Quite simply some of them have been neglected or stripped to the point where they are beyond salvation. They sell so few papers and their paginations and advertiser base are so low that there is simply no real demand for them.
Also, in some towns that have traditionally sustained a Protestant paper and a Catholic one, that’s a less practical model than in the past as the smaller of the two papers is often now close to unsustainable in towns with a dwindling population. There will always be natural attrition and that’s something we need to accept.
In conclusion, I welcome this intervention on behalf of the local press, But the help he proposes shouldn’t take any of the onus away from some publishers to simply do a better job!
Photo by geralt is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA


sluggerotoole--2020-04-23--Invite your friends or family to dinner by video. And other Covid-19 tech tips…

As you may know , TV Dinners is what Americans call ready meals .
But how about a video dinner ?
I was chatting to a friend the other day to see how he was getting on during the big pause .
He lives with his family in Belfast but his mother lives alone in Armagh .
To make his mum feel less isolated he came up with a novel solution .
Every night at dinner time he video calls his mum on his tablet , then when she answers they place the tablet at her spot on the dinner @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Mum eats her dinner in Armagh while my friend and his family eat there ’ s in Belfast .
It is a really simple idea but my friend says it works really well .
Mum can join in the conversation and more importantly everyone feels connected and involved .
Another upside of this is you don ’ t feel pressured into chit chat , it can be hard coming up with new things to talk about when we have all been in the house for weeks – just being connected is enough .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ recommend getting a stand or grip for your phone or tablet , you can get them from Amazon .
Another good suggestion for less technical friends or family is the Facebook portal device .
This is like a photo frame with a built-in screen and camera .
I was sceptical at first , as it sounded a bit gimmicky to me but my cousin got my uncle one and he loves it .
The video and sound quality on them is excellent , and they are very simple to use .
They were @ @ @ @ @ @ @ seems to have gone up again to £129 , keep an eye on Amazon or the Portal site .
A better option for relatives could be an Ipad .
They are my number one tech recommendation for people to buy .
Extremely easy to use , well built and versatile .
Normally you can pick them up on Ebay for £289 but the price of these has also went up due to demand , they are now about £340 .
There are lots of different models , make sure you get the new @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is do not scrimp and buy a cheaper Android Tablet , most of them are terrible .
You will get 5 years out of an Ipad so they are a better buy .
I don ’ t recommend buying a used or refurbished iPad as there is often not much difference in price between a new and used one .
If you must go cheap the Huawei Tablets are very good value but do not buy an Android tablet for non-technical relatives , you will be tortured with tech support calls from them @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Lastly , if you are in the market for a Phone the newly released the new iPhone SE is great value at £419 or your carrier will likely have deals on it .
Make sure to get a cover for it to keep it in good condition .
If you do have any tech questions feel free to ask in the comments .
Photo by RitaE is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA

As you may know, TV Dinners is what Americans call ready meals. But how about a video dinner? I was chatting to a friend the other day to see how he was getting on during the big pause. He lives with his family in Belfast but his mother lives alone in Armagh. To make his mum feel less isolated he came up with a novel solution. Every night at dinner time he video calls his mum on his tablet, then when she answers they place the tablet at her spot on the dinner table and proceed to eat together. Mum eats her dinner in Armagh while my friend and his family eat there’s in Belfast.
It is a really simple idea but my friend says it works really well. Mum can join in the conversation and more importantly everyone feels connected and involved. Another upside of this is you don’t feel pressured into chit chat, it can be hard coming up with new things to talk about when we have all been in the house for weeks – just being connected is enough. If you want to try this I recommend getting a stand or grip for your phone or tablet, you can get them from Amazon.
Another good suggestion for less technical friends or family is the Facebook portal device. This is like a photo frame with a built-in screen and camera. I was sceptical at first, as it sounded a bit gimmicky to me but my cousin got my uncle one and he loves it. The video and sound quality on them is excellent, and they are very simple to use. They were on sale for £79 but the price seems to have gone up again to £129, keep an eye on Amazon or the Portal site.
A better option for relatives could be an Ipad. They are my number one tech recommendation for people to buy. Extremely easy to use, well built and versatile. Normally you can pick them up on Ebay for £289 but the price of these has also went up due to demand, they are now about £340. There are lots of different models, make sure you get the new 2019 version. And whatever you do is do not scrimp and buy a cheaper Android Tablet, most of them are terrible. You will get 5 years out of an Ipad so they are a better buy. I don’t recommend buying a used or refurbished iPad as there is often not much difference in price between a new and used one. If you must go cheap the Huawei Tablets are very good value but do not buy an Android tablet for non-technical relatives, you will be tortured with tech support calls from them when they break them every five minutes.
Lastly, if you are in the market for a Phone the newly released the new iPhone SE is great value at £419 or your carrier will likely have deals on it. Make sure to get a cover for it to keep it in good condition.
If you do have any tech questions feel free to ask in the comments.
Photo by RitaE is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA


sluggerotoole--2020-04-24--Taking a position on #Covid19 is fine, so long as you actually have one yourself…

It was good to see Ms McDonald up and fighting fit on The View last night after what must have been a harrowing experience .
We should take heart from her recovery and remember that people can and will survive Covid19 .
Recovery rates in this long struggle will be every bit as important as the number of deaths as we go forward .
To be more critical , I thought it strange there was no explanation forthcoming from Ms McDonald as to how we are going transition from lockdown into a functioning economy .
Yes , there was a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to be done to get the economy going again ” but certainly no meat on the bones of how we might get there .
As Kevin Maguire said in a later segment of The View last night , we need our politicians ( of whatever party ) to be much more honest about the trade-offs we will have to make between staying safe in the present lockdown and the sort of difficult decisions needed in order to bring it to an end .
This is a debate that has been called for several @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Fianna Fail leader and possible next Taoiseach Micheal Martin , but the Sinn Fein leader seems determined to have this issue marked in block capitals as someone else ’ s problem .
The reaction to that was hysterical in some quarters .
But as noted here , there ’ s a mix of reasons for action : Perhaps ML is keeping silent so that she has maximum scope for criticising those decisions ( whatever they may be ) when they come .
As an opposition leader , that ’ s her prerogative @ @ @ @ @ @ @ senior responsibility in Northern Ireland so really ought to have outlined her own alternatives rather than just allowing her junior minister to shoot from the sectarian hip .
As I have said here before talk of unified health policy for the island is far too late .
But it is not too late to fire up heavy bilateral conversations so that policies can be co-ordinated on an island-wide basis .
A successful lifting of restrictions will depend not just on sharing data but on developing a shared north-south understanding of what the other @ @ @ @ @ @ @ This will get more meaningful as testing and tracking become more tractable and useful .
We can get outlines from how things are progressing in each jurisdiction but there is no common method for collecting figures which at best provides huge scope for misunderstanding or at worst for potentially dangerous political mischief .
If there is no ramping up of bilateral communication we could very easily default to an incredibly hard border , if only for limited periods of time , and that is something I ’ m pretty sure that no one @ @ @ @ @ @ @ under CC BY-NC-SA

It was good to see Ms McDonald up and fighting fit on The View last night after what must have been a harrowing experience. We should take heart from her recovery and remember that people can and will survive Covid19. Recovery rates in this long struggle will be every bit as important as the number of deaths as we go forward.
To be more critical, I thought it strange there was no explanation forthcoming from Ms McDonald as to how we are going transition from lockdown into a functioning economy. Yes, there was a vague reference to “work that has to be done to get the economy going again” but certainly no meat on the bones of how we might get there.
As Kevin Maguire said in a later segment of The View last night, we need our politicians (of whatever party) to be much more honest about the trade-offs we will have to make between staying safe in the present lockdown and the sort of difficult decisions needed in order to bring it to an end.
This is a debate that has been called for several weeks ago by ML’s rival the Fianna Fail leader and possible next Taoiseach Micheal Martin, but the Sinn Fein leader seems determined to have this issue marked in block capitals as someone else’s problem. The reaction to that was hysterical in some quarters.
But as noted here, there’s a mix of reasons for action:
alright, opinion incoming, very sorry in advance, as per usual — Marie Le Conte (@youngvulgarian) April 23, 2020
Perhaps ML is keeping silent so that she has maximum scope for criticising those decisions (whatever they may be) when they come. As an opposition leader, that’s her prerogative. But she forgets that SF has senior responsibility in Northern Ireland so really ought to have outlined her own alternatives rather than just allowing her junior minister to shoot from the sectarian hip.
As I have said here before talk of unified health policy for the island is far too late. But it is not too late to fire up heavy bilateral conversations so that policies can be co-ordinated on an island-wide basis. A successful lifting of restrictions will depend not just on sharing data but on developing a shared north-south understanding of what the other can or indeed needs to do.
This will get more meaningful as testing and tracking become more tractable and useful. We can get outlines from how things are progressing in each jurisdiction but there is no common method for collecting figures which at best provides huge scope for misunderstanding or at worst for potentially dangerous political mischief.
If there is no ramping up of bilateral communication we could very easily default to an incredibly hard border, if only for limited periods of time, and that is something I’m pretty sure that no one wants.
Photo by pasja1000 is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA


sluggerotoole--2020-04-24--A debate on our constitutional future is not just the Border. It’s about re-imagining the State…

Politics is a numbers game , so let ’ s look at this first .
As I set out in a previous post , the SoS will be unable to resist the logic of a positive vote in the Assembly and would therefore be legally obliged to call a border poll under the GFA ( a refusal to do so in these circumstances could certainly be challenged in the Courts ) .
As it stands it would only take the combined votes of Sinn Fein , SDLP and Alliance to secure a majority .
This is not something that the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ indeed failure to engage could even make it more likely .
In current circumstances neither SDLP nor Alliance are going to vote this way , but increased demand among the electorate could help them change their minds .
It is very unlikely that Republican agitation or any form of triumphalism is going to deliver change .
Rather it will come through respectful engagement , conversation , and debate .
The Irish Government ’ s recent announcement of a united island unit “ working with all traditions on the island , to build consensus @ @ @ @ @ @ @ what is required .
This type of activity could completely by-pass Unionist politicians ( especially if they refuse to participate ) and simply go directly to the people themselves .
This could potentially come through a Citizen ’ s Assembly ; with people invited to nominate themselves as potential candidates and the actual Assembly selected from this pool in a way that is politically and demographically balanced .
Within a population of 1 million people it is quite likely that appropriate unionist representation could be found .
However , the bulk of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ open to all , such as “ Town Hall ” debates , local press , and social media platforms .
The current lock down has shown how effective the latter now is for engagement and distributed leadership , and how effective it can be for mass decision making and debate .

Politics is a numbers game, so let’s look at this first. As I set out in a previous post, the SoS will be unable to resist the logic of a positive vote in the Assembly and would therefore be legally obliged to call a border poll under the GFA (a refusal to do so in these circumstances could certainly be challenged in the Courts). As it stands it would only take the combined votes of Sinn Fein, SDLP and Alliance to secure a majority. This is not something that the rigidity of Unionism can necessarily prevent – indeed failure to engage could even make it more likely.
In current circumstances neither SDLP nor Alliance are going to vote this way, but increased demand among the electorate could help them change their minds. It is very unlikely that Republican agitation or any form of triumphalism is going to deliver change. Rather it will come through respectful engagement, conversation, and debate. The Irish Government’s recent announcement of a united island unit “working with all traditions on the island, to build consensus around a shared future” is exactly what is required.
This type of activity could completely by-pass Unionist politicians (especially if they refuse to participate) and simply go directly to the people themselves. This could potentially come through a Citizen’s Assembly; with people invited to nominate themselves as potential candidates and the actual Assembly selected from this pool in a way that is politically and demographically balanced. Within a population of 1 million people it is quite likely that appropriate unionist representation could be found.
However, the bulk of the conversation would come through channels that are open to all, such as “Town Hall” debates, local press, and social media platforms. The current lock down has shown how effective the latter now is for engagement and distributed leadership, and how effective it can be for mass decision making and debate.


sluggerotoole--2020-04-24--Drawing conclusions on provisional #Covid19  figures does no favours to public understanding.

Significant news has just come through from RTE News this evening… A lot of the Twitter equivalent of ink is being spilt over data on Covid-19 deaths on these islands .
At one level , this is inexcusably prurient .
This is not a competition .
Saying our graph is smaller than your graph is poor form when we ’ re talking about people dying .
It ’ s also way too early to make any definitive pronouncements .
As one wit in recent conversation put it to me , ‘ premature extrapolation ’ is a growing problem .
This @ @ @ @ @ @ @ between both parts of Ireland .
The reality is that there is no reliable means at this point to compare Northern Ireland statistics with those in the Republic .
Quite simply , you would not be comparing like with like .
NI ’ s broadest measurement of deaths comes from NISRA ’ s weekly publication , which covers hospital and community settings .
These statistics are derived from the formal process of death registration and may include cases where the doctor completing the death certificate diagnosed suspected Covid-19 .
The death registration process @ @ @ @ @ @ @ By contrast , the Republic of Ireland announces daily totals for “ laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 related deaths ” .
The NISRA figures may contain suspected cases as well as confirmed .
And they are based on the death registration process .
The Republic ’ s daily totals are based on confirmed laboratory results .
The Republic ’ s chief medical officer Dr. Tony Holohan last week called for a swifter death registration process so that its true number of Covid-19 related deaths can be assessed “ on a more timely basis ” .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ recent days that a “ mortality census ” will be carried out on deaths across its long-term residential care facilities .
Heretofore some have relied on RIP.ie , which copies newspaper mentions of deaths .
All this adds up to an admirably frank acknowledgment that the full extent of Covid-19 deaths in the Republic is not yet known .
Nor could it be .
Anyone trying to draw conclusions on early provisional figures is doing no favours to public understanding .
Chief Medical Officer Dr Michael McBride yesterday , “ we will not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ virus is not going away.
” Indeed it is not .
And in the face of that , we need less polarisation and more co-operation to get these numbers aligned and in order .
*To my amateur eye , this looks like deaths that were missing from previous tallies .
This is not to rebuke the Republic ’ s DoH in any way .
Neither system was set up to report uniformly over a lot of different outlets to give precise and up to date figures .
This is very much a work @ @ @ @ @ @ @ up the latest score deserve the answer my old dad ( DL Irish speaker , but a dedicated sports nut ) gave me when I asked him who was winning in a cricket test match .
“ There are no winners until it ’ s over ” .
Ireland ( the island , not the state , remember ? )
should drop the animosity , and get on with dealing with this threat as closely as they can… Photo by pixel2013 is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA

Significant news has just come through from RTE News this evening…
The total death toll here is now 1,014, including 185* probable deaths, after two deaths that had previously been reported are no longer classified as related to Covid-19. [Emphasis added]
A lot of the Twitter equivalent of ink is being spilt over data on Covid-19 deaths on these islands. At one level, this is inexcusably prurient. This is not a competition. Saying our graph is smaller than your graph is poor form when we’re talking about people dying.
It’s also way too early to make any definitive pronouncements. As one wit in recent conversation put it to me, ‘premature extrapolation’ is a growing problem. This includes several much-publicised attempts to compare data between both parts of Ireland.
The reality is that there is no reliable means at this point to compare Northern Ireland statistics with those in the Republic. Quite simply, you would not be comparing like with like.
NI’s broadest measurement of deaths comes from NISRA’s weekly publication, which covers hospital and community settings. These statistics are derived from the formal process of death registration and may include cases where the doctor completing the death certificate diagnosed suspected Covid-19.
The death registration process can take a number of days.
By contrast, the Republic of Ireland announces daily totals for “laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 related deaths”. The NISRA figures may contain suspected cases as well as confirmed. And they are based on the death registration process.
The Republic’s daily totals are based on confirmed laboratory results.
The Republic’s chief medical officer Dr. Tony Holohan last week called for a swifter death registration process so that its true number of Covid-19 related deaths can be assessed “on a more timely basis”.
The southern Department of Health has announced in recent days that a “mortality census” will be carried out on deaths across its long-term residential care facilities. Heretofore some have relied on RIP.ie, which copies newspaper mentions of deaths.
All this adds up to an admirably frank acknowledgment that the full extent of Covid-19 deaths in the Republic is not yet known. Nor could it be. Anyone trying to draw conclusions on early provisional figures is doing no favours to public understanding.
Chief Medical Officer Dr Michael McBride yesterday, “we will not test this virus into submission. This virus is not going away.” Indeed it is not. And in the face of that, we need less polarisation and more co-operation to get these numbers aligned and in order.
*To my amateur eye, this looks like deaths that were missing from previous tallies. This is not to rebuke the Republic’s DoH in any way. Neither system was set up to report uniformly over a lot of different outlets to give precise and up to date figures.
This is very much a work in progress. Those rushing to tot up the latest score deserve the answer my old dad (DL Irish speaker, but a dedicated sports nut) gave me when I asked him who was winning in a cricket test match. “There are no winners until it’s over”.
Ireland (the island, not the state, remember?) should drop the animosity, and get on with dealing with this threat as closely as they can…
Photo by pixel2013 is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA


sluggerotoole--2020-04-24--Friday Thread: “Just 9% want everything to go back to how it was before…”

Interesting data on how folks in GB are dealing with the lockdown .
Judging from the fact that flour rather than toilet rolls are the rare items on our shopping list , I would say this is pretty broad : • Social bonds are stronger , with 40 % feeling a stronger sense of local community and 39 % more in touch with friends and family • 42 % say the outbreak has changed how they value food as an essential , and one in ten have shared something like food or shopping with a neighbour for the first time @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ( 38 % ) say they are cooking more from scratch and 17 million are throwing away less food ( 33 % ) .
6 % ( and 9 % of Londoners ) , 3 million people , have tried a veg box scheme or ordered food from a local farm for the very first time • 51 % say they have noticed cleaner air , and 27 % more wildlife since the outbreak began • Although 9 % feel fitter and 27 % are getting more exercise , more people ( 36 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ exercise than before .
I don ’ t know if it is just me but , for now , at least , I think people are being somewhat kinder to each other .
If that is the case I think what most of us have discovered is the richness of time that derives spending most of it at home .
The cleaner air is also something I ’ ve noticed .
I hope somewhere someone is noting the climate data .
The models that indicate we have limited time ahead to avert disastrous @ @ @ @ @ @ @ projections of the same behaviours .
This disruption could do two positive things .
One , some aspects ( like a 70 % drop in local road usage ) could slow down the timing of those projections ; two , in proving the increase in the quality of life available to all of us , end all the pointless arguments .
The biggest barrier to action on climate change is the pervasive sense that none of us can do anything to stop it .
If we can prove that we can ( even @ @ @ @ @ @ @ behaviours will shift to things like homeworking ) , many barriers will drop .
My friend Professor Tom MacMillan has been working as Research Director for the Food , Farming & Countryside Commission in Britain , and he writes : It will be afterwards , therefore , as the crisis eases , that these debates and possibilities will play out .
But how much will we remember then of what we are doing , feeling and wanting now , of what ’ s working well and what ’ s failing ?
Some experiences @ @ @ @ @ @ @ how skewed will our collective memory be , and the political space for reconstruction , by our capacity to capture data in the meantime ?
Will big businesses and institutions , with inbuilt monitoring systems , be best able to meet government ’ s demands for evidence from this period to underpin future policy ?
Those are open questions , but it is also important that we understand that this is an opportunity to effect profound change for the way we choose to live .
And it depends on us being able to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ much resonance and resilience we can broker through our new distributed , platformed world .
We might start by telling better stories to ourselves about ourselves ?
Photo by qimono is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA

Interesting data on how folks in GB are dealing with the lockdown. Judging from the fact that flour rather than toilet rolls are the rare items on our shopping list, I would say this is pretty broad:
Social bonds are stronger, with 40% feeling a stronger sense of local community and 39% more in touch with friends and family
42% say the outbreak has changed how they value food as an essential, and one in ten have shared something like food or shopping with a neighbour for the first time
More than 19 million of us (38%) say they are cooking more from scratch and 17 million are throwing away less food (33%). 6% (and 9% of Londoners), 3 million people, have tried a veg box scheme or ordered food from a local farm for the very first time
51% say they have noticed cleaner air, and 27% more wildlife since the outbreak began
Although 9% feel fitter and 27% are getting more exercise, more people (36%) say they are getting less exercise than before.
I don’t know if it is just me but, for now, at least, I think people are being somewhat kinder to each other. If that is the case I think what most of us have discovered is the richness of time that derives spending most of it at home.
The cleaner air is also something I’ve noticed. I hope somewhere someone is noting the climate data. The models that indicate we have limited time ahead to avert disastrous changes in climate are only based on projections of the same behaviours.
This disruption could do two positive things. One, some aspects (like a 70% drop in local road usage) could slow down the timing of those projections; two, in proving the increase in the quality of life available to all of us, end all the pointless arguments.
The biggest barrier to action on climate change is the pervasive sense that none of us can do anything to stop it. If we can prove that we can (even if the lockdown ends many of our behaviours will shift to things like homeworking), many barriers will drop.
My friend Professor Tom MacMillan has been working as Research Director for the Food, Farming & Countryside Commission in Britain, and he writes:
It will be afterwards, therefore, as the crisis eases, that these debates and possibilities will play out. But how much will we remember then of what we are doing, feeling and wanting now, of what’s working well and what’s failing? Some experiences will surely mark us forever. But how skewed will our collective memory be, and the political space for reconstruction, by our capacity to capture data in the meantime? Will big businesses and institutions, with inbuilt monitoring systems, be best able to meet government’s demands for evidence from this period to underpin future policy?
Those are open questions, but it is also important that we understand that this is an opportunity to effect profound change for the way we choose to live.
And it depends on us being able to rise to the occasion depending on how much resonance and resilience we can broker through our new distributed, platformed world.
We might start by telling better stories to ourselves about ourselves?
Photo by qimono is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA


sluggerotoole--2020-04-24--On This Day 104 years ago, the Easter Rising began…

The very talented John Breslin runs the Twitter account Old Ireland in Colour .
He colourises old photos and he @ @ @ @ @ it is an essential follow .
For today he put up the colourised photo of @ @ @ @ @ it really brings them to life .
His previous work is well worth checking out @ @ @ @ @ examples below .

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sluggerotoole--2020-04-24--Anyone want a swig of Toilet Duck?

Anyone want a swig of Toilet Duck?

In these times of global crisis , it is reassuring that we have a strong leader of the free world @ @ @ @ @ things , a humanitarian , a philanthropist , a voice for the downtrodden but best @ @ @ @ @ scientist and medical genius .
The latest advice from the Golden Sage is we can @ @ @ @ @ disinfectant and UV light .
Remember don ’ t try this at home kids .


sluggerotoole--2020-04-25--Public relations misfire: transparent and desperate…

On Wednesday at the national daily briefing , the UK government visibly acknowledged its anxiety over its COVID-19 response to date as talks of an Inquiry mount , just days after a Sunday Times article highlighted a series of spectacular blunders that prompted a detailed 2,000-word rebuttal .
The tell… ?
Wheeling out the Chief of the Defence Staff , General Sir Nicholas Carter GCB , CBE , DSO , ADC .
One would be forgiven for thinking it relatively benign , given that the military has been squarely involved in delivering PPE , construction of seven Nightingale hospitals in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to the NHS , to name a few tasks .
However , in terms of strategic communications and public relations , the presence of General Carter tells a subtly different story if analysed more forensically .
With public sentiment for the government ’ s national response wavering , albeit with the public still seeking a successful outcome , this briefing ceased to be purely ‘ science-based ’ and pivoted firmly towards the realpolitik in the hope of injecting some confidence in flagging and lacklustre Ministers .
Who better to do this than the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ held in high regard by joe public and is currently unparalleled by any other state organisation , other than the NHS ?
General Carter used his soap box to reveal that coronavirus has been his “ single greatest logistic challenge ” , and went on to outline military measures in support , including creating 260,000 square feet of distribution warehousing , with between three and four thousand service persons being actively involved and 20,000 held at readiness to assist .
There is a reason US General Omar Bradley ’ s adage has some @ @ @ @ @ @ @ talk tactics , professionals talk logistics.
’ The relevance here , is that General Carter is not and has never been a professional logistician .
His career has however , seen strategic , operational and tactical appointments as a professional infanteer to Northern Ireland , Iraq and Afghanistan amongst other conflict zones .
His indirect comparison of the rigours of kinetic and asymmetric warfare with the complexities of coordinating and delivering PPE across the UK on largely empty roads seems to be comparing apples with oranges and on the face of it , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that he was brought in to convey .
This is not detrimental to the well-deserved recognition of military support so far , but more a criticism of the evident political interference .
To his credit , whereas what General Carter claims may be strictly true , some may view it as thinly veiled misrepresentation and a public relations stunt aimed at cutting the government some slack .
What it has done , is conceptually moved military accountability closer to the centre of decision-making gravity in government both in practice and in the public @ @ @ @ @ @ @ us to do it ’ narrative simply not cutting it anymore ?
After unprecedented growth in support of the UK Armed Forces in the public eye in recent years , it is unsettling to see its leader misused like this .
Five weeks in since the UK declared war on the coronavirus , it ’ s a very curious ( and late ) time to deploy General Carter to the pulpit , against a backdrop of commentators and devolved governments discussing exit strategies with others musing on whether infection and death rates have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ General Carter is hardly infallible , despite a decorated and distinguished military career .
It was under his stewardship whilst Chief of the General Staff ( professional head of the Army ) that saw him implement capability crushing austerity at the behest of successive Conservative governments and deliver record levels of under manning , foundering retention and rock bottom morale in his own troops .
Maybe these resource shortfalls that he was complicit in creating , contributed to his belief that this is his greatest logistic challenge to date ?
Before anyone rushes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ wish of making General Carter the ‘ interim Prime Minister ’ , they may want to pay heed to the ingrained command and control strictures of the military .
Examples like the absence of a statutory union to represent personnel and levying punishment on them if they take to social media to raise awareness about the conditions they ’ re made to live and work in are two censorious aspects that liberal democracy leaders must reject on behalf of their people .
So no , he shouldn ’ t be interim Prime Minister @ @ @ @ @ @ @ General Carter ’ s most blatant forays into politics yet .
And finally , not to be facetious , but I ’ m sure the fine folk of the Royal Fleet Auxiliary ( RFA ) Argus were out of sorts hearing their vessel referred to as HMS !
Hopefully General Carter ’ s future reshow will be under more auspicious circumstances .
“ General Sir Nicholas Carter KCB CBE DSO ADC , Chief of the General Staff , British Army ” by Chatham House , London is licensed under CC BY

On Wednesday at the national daily briefing, the UK government visibly acknowledged its anxiety over its COVID-19 response to date as talks of an Inquiry mount, just days after a Sunday Times article highlighted a series of spectacular blunders that prompted a detailed 2,000-word rebuttal.
The tell…? Wheeling out the Chief of the Defence Staff, General Sir Nicholas Carter GCB, CBE, DSO, ADC. One would be forgiven for thinking it relatively benign, given that the military has been squarely involved in delivering PPE, construction of seven Nightingale hospitals in England and seconding its medically trained staff to the NHS, to name a few tasks. However, in terms of strategic communications and public relations, the presence of General Carter tells a subtly different story if analysed more forensically. With public sentiment for the government’s national response wavering, albeit with the public still seeking a successful outcome, this briefing ceased to be purely ‘science-based’ and pivoted firmly towards the realpolitik in the hope of injecting some confidence in flagging and lacklustre Ministers. Who better to do this than the head of an organisation that is consistently held in high regard by joe public and is currently unparalleled by any other state organisation, other than the NHS?
General Carter used his soap box to reveal that coronavirus has been his “single greatest logistic challenge”, and went on to outline military measures in support, including creating 260,000 square feet of distribution warehousing, with between three and four thousand service persons being actively involved and 20,000 held at readiness to assist. There is a reason US General Omar Bradley’s adage has some truth to it, that ‘amateurs talk tactics, professionals talk logistics.’ The relevance here, is that General Carter is not and has never been a professional logistician. His career has however, seen strategic, operational and tactical appointments as a professional infanteer to Northern Ireland, Iraq and Afghanistan amongst other conflict zones. His indirect comparison of the rigours of kinetic and asymmetric warfare with the complexities of coordinating and delivering PPE across the UK on largely empty roads seems to be comparing apples with oranges and on the face of it, lacks some authenticity and the very realism that he was brought in to convey. This is not detrimental to the well-deserved recognition of military support so far, but more a criticism of the evident political interference.
To his credit, whereas what General Carter claims may be strictly true, some may view it as thinly veiled misrepresentation and a public relations stunt aimed at cutting the government some slack. What it has done, is conceptually moved military accountability closer to the centre of decision-making gravity in government both in practice and in the public psyche; was the ‘scientists told us to do it’ narrative simply not cutting it anymore? After unprecedented growth in support of the UK Armed Forces in the public eye in recent years, it is unsettling to see its leader misused like this. Five weeks in since the UK declared war on the coronavirus, it’s a very curious (and late) time to deploy General Carter to the pulpit, against a backdrop of commentators and devolved governments discussing exit strategies with others musing on whether infection and death rates have passed their peak.
That said, General Carter is hardly infallible, despite a decorated and distinguished military career. It was under his stewardship whilst Chief of the General Staff (professional head of the Army) that saw him implement capability crushing austerity at the behest of successive Conservative governments and deliver record levels of under manning, foundering retention and rock bottom morale in his own troops. Maybe these resource shortfalls that he was complicit in creating, contributed to his belief that this is his greatest logistic challenge to date?
Before anyone rushes to grant Piers Morgan’s Twitter wish of making General Carter the ‘interim Prime Minister’, they may want to pay heed to the ingrained command and control strictures of the military. Examples like the absence of a statutory union to represent personnel and levying punishment on them if they take to social media to raise awareness about the conditions they’re made to live and work in are two censorious aspects that liberal democracy leaders must reject on behalf of their people. So no, he shouldn’t be interim Prime Minister, but this may be one of General Carter’s most blatant forays into politics yet.
And finally, not to be facetious, but I’m sure the fine folk of the Royal Fleet Auxiliary (RFA) Argus were out of sorts hearing their vessel referred to as HMS! Hopefully General Carter’s future reshow will be under more auspicious circumstances.
“General Sir Nicholas Carter KCB CBE DSO ADC, Chief of the General Staff, British Army” by Chatham House, London is licensed under CC BY