sluggerotoole--2020-03-01--High speed rail to the northwest would help alleviate Dublin’s housing crisis and Ireland’s severe r

High speed rail to the northwest would help alleviate Dublin’s housing crisis and Ireland’s severe regional inequality

Among the problems facing Ireland in 2020 , two of the most pressing are the housing crisis in Dublin and severe regional economic inequality .
Far removed from Dublin or any of the prosperous regional hubs such as Limerick , Galway or Cork , incomes in the northwest of Ireland ( on both sides of the border ) are amongst the lowest on the island .
By contrast , despite the buoyant jobs market in Dublin , housing in the capital has become extremely expensive in recent years , with rental costs in Dublin around 80 % higher than they @ @ @ @ @ @ @ below shows average disposable income per capita in Ireland ( as of 2015 ) ; Dublin was by the far the highest , with County Donegal being the lowest .
Counties in Ulster on either side of the border were amongst the lowest in terms of income .
The island of Ireland has a population of around 6.6m .
Whilst this has increased in recent years , it is still significantly below its peak population of 8.1m in 1841 before the famine .
Nowadays , Dublin has by far the highest population of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ % of the island ’ s population living in the county .
But in 1841 , the population was far more spread out .
All but eight of Ireland ’ s counties have a smaller population than was the case in 1841 , and with the exception of the counties containing Derry and Belfast , all of these are the Dublin area counties ; Dublin itself , Wicklow , Kildare , Meath , and Louth .
The other 24 counties have , on average , less than 50 % of their pre-famine population @ @ @ @ @ @ @ populations relative to their pre-famine peaks are Cavan ( a 69 % fall ) , Monaghan ( also 69 % ) , Roscommon ( 75 % ) and Leitrim ( 79 % ) .
These various issues ; the overheating Dublin housing market , regional inequalities and rural depopulation , are in a sense linked .
The relative prosperity and population growth in counties such as Kildare and Wicklow has arisen largely because of the ease of traveling to the capital from towns such as Newbridge or Greystones .
Poor public transport to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ demand for housing in the capital .
The rail network in Ireland is a shadow of its former self .
The maps below show the Irish rail network as it was in 1906 , compared with what remains of the network today .
The disappearance of most of Ireland ’ s railway infrastructure has hit Ulster the hardest ; the north of Ireland went from being the most densely covered by rail to having the sparsest network .
There is no rail service at all in the sector northwest of Dublin between the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Belfast to Derry .
A high speed rail line from Dublin to the northwest of Ireland would address many of the most pressing issues facing Ireland today ; the overheated Dublin property market , rural depopulation , and regional economic inequalities particularly impacting on border communities .
It would mean that vast swathes of the country would be within easy reach of Dublin and its airport .
It would also increase the attractiveness of Dublin itself as a commercial destination , both by providing near-instant transportation from the city centre to its airport @ @ @ @ @ @ @ city accommodation costs , an issue which is beginning to put off foreign companies from investing there .
The map at the top of the post shows the type of route that could be considered .
A tunnel would link Dublin Connolly to Dublin Airport , and from there the route would take in Ashbourne , Navan and Kells in County Meath , Virginia in County Cavan , Clones in County Monaghan , Omagh and Strabane in County Tyrone , Letterkenny in County Donegal and finally the city of Derry .
Assuming trains @ @ @ @ @ @ @ accelerating at 0.3 m/s2 , timings from Dublin would be approximately as follows .
In terms of costs , recent high speed rail schemes in Europe have varied between €15-16m/km in Belgium , €4.7-23m in France and €7.8-20m in Spain ; the extremely high costs per kilometre of HS2 in the UK aren ’ t an appropriate comparison due to the high costs of building railway lines in the London area .
Allowing a figure towards the top of these ranges ( €20m/km ) , and allowing €1.2bn for the costs of tunnelling @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a back-of-the envelope estimate for the 240km scheme would be around €6bn .
Around 32 % of the route would be through Northern Ireland .
A high speed rail line would help alleviate Dublin ’ s housing crisis and “ level up ” areas in the north of Ireland that have been left behind by the economic boom in the capital .
The southern and western counties of Ulster have been starved of infrastructure investment for the best part of a century ; it is time that this was addressed .

Among the problems facing Ireland in 2020, two of the most pressing are the housing crisis in Dublin and severe regional economic inequality.
Far removed from Dublin or any of the prosperous regional hubs such as Limerick, Galway or Cork, incomes in the northwest of Ireland (on both sides of the border) are amongst the lowest on the island. By contrast, despite the buoyant jobs market in Dublin, housing in the capital has become extremely expensive in recent years, with rental costs in Dublin around 80% higher than they were a decade ago.
The map below shows average disposable income per capita in Ireland (as of 2015); Dublin was by the far the highest, with County Donegal being the lowest. Counties in Ulster on either side of the border were amongst the lowest in terms of income.
The island of Ireland has a population of around 6.6m. Whilst this has increased in recent years, it is still significantly below its peak population of 8.1m in 1841 before the famine. Nowadays, Dublin has by far the highest population of any county in Ireland, with 20% of the island’s population living in the county. But in 1841, the population was far more spread out.
All but eight of Ireland’s counties have a smaller population than was the case in 1841, and with the exception of the counties containing Derry and Belfast, all of these are the Dublin area counties; Dublin itself, Wicklow, Kildare, Meath, and Louth. The other 24 counties have, on average, less than 50% of their pre-famine population. The counties that have the lowest populations relative to their pre-famine peaks are Cavan (a 69% fall), Monaghan (also 69%), Roscommon (75%) and Leitrim (79%).
These various issues; the overheating Dublin housing market, regional inequalities and rural depopulation, are in a sense linked. The relative prosperity and population growth in counties such as Kildare and Wicklow has arisen largely because of the ease of traveling to the capital from towns such as Newbridge or Greystones. Poor public transport to Dublin has led to an increase for demand for housing in the capital.
The rail network in Ireland is a shadow of its former self. The maps below show the Irish rail network as it was in 1906, compared with what remains of the network today. The disappearance of most of Ireland’s railway infrastructure has hit Ulster the hardest; the north of Ireland went from being the most densely covered by rail to having the sparsest network. There is no rail service at all in the sector northwest of Dublin between the line to Sligo and the line from Belfast to Derry.
A high speed rail line from Dublin to the northwest of Ireland would address many of the most pressing issues facing Ireland today; the overheated Dublin property market, rural depopulation, and regional economic inequalities particularly impacting on border communities. It would mean that vast swathes of the country would be within easy reach of Dublin and its airport.
It would also increase the attractiveness of Dublin itself as a commercial destination, both by providing near-instant transportation from the city centre to its airport and by reducing the pressure on Dublin city accommodation costs, an issue which is beginning to put off foreign companies from investing there.
The map at the top of the post shows the type of route that could be considered. A tunnel would link Dublin Connolly to Dublin Airport, and from there the route would take in Ashbourne, Navan and Kells in County Meath, Virginia in County Cavan, Clones in County Monaghan, Omagh and Strabane in County Tyrone, Letterkenny in County Donegal and finally the city of Derry.
Assuming trains capable of running at 300 km/h and accelerating at 0.3 m/s2, timings from Dublin would be approximately as follows.
Dublin Connolly 00:00 Dublin Airport 00:06 Ashbourne 00:14 Navan 00:24 Kells 00:32 Virginia 00:40 Clones 00:52 Omagh 01:06 Strabane/Lifford 01:16 Letterkenny 01:25 Derry~Londonderry 01:35
In terms of costs, recent high speed rail schemes in Europe have varied between €15-16m/km in Belgium, €4.7-23m in France and €7.8-20m in Spain; the extremely high costs per kilometre of HS2 in the UK aren’t an appropriate comparison due to the high costs of building railway lines in the London area.
Allowing a figure towards the top of these ranges (€20m/km), and allowing €1.2bn for the costs of tunnelling between central Dublin and the airport, a back-of-the envelope estimate for the 240km scheme would be around €6bn. Around 32% of the route would be through Northern Ireland.
A high speed rail line would help alleviate Dublin’s housing crisis and “level up” areas in the north of Ireland that have been left behind by the economic boom in the capital. The southern and western counties of Ulster have been starved of infrastructure investment for the best part of a century; it is time that this was addressed.


sluggerotoole--2020-03-02--Fergus on Monday: The Rogue Swan

Fergus on Monday: The Rogue Swan

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sluggerotoole--2020-03-02--HAND OF THE FUTURE Podcast Episode 1 – “Biopolitical Peacebuilding”…

I have embarked upon a podcasting journey in order to generate some discussion on topics popular on this site and on twitter .
Hand of the future is a tongue and cheek reference to the recent comment by Boris Johnson in the great hall of Stormont .
His entire speech seemed unprepared , uninformed and representative of a distant Westminster bubble .
Yet I thought it nicely summed up what I want this podcast to be about , achieving a future not blighted by a conflicted past and using Stormont as a vehicle for progress .
In episode one , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is an academic who recently wrote a piece for Slugger entitled “ citizen can.
” He has practised and studied peacebuilding both within the academy and on the ground in north Belfast communities .
He points to the “ disconnect ” between the theory and the practice of peacebuilding and post-conflict studies .
Sean uses a “ post structural ” methodology which he explains in the podcast .
His work on north Belfast loyalist communities challenged the narrative of the troubles and he points to the early political agitations within the loyalist community @ @ @ @ @ @ @ their roots within Northern unionism ) .
We also discuss the effect of post-imperialism on western thought , the new-Marxist thinking and rejection of soviet communism by Foucault in 1960s and the climate emergency .
To understand how all these come together under the thesis of “ bio political peace building ” please have a listen to episode one and let me know in comments or on twitter what you think !
Photo by StockSnap is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA

I have embarked upon a podcasting journey in order to generate some discussion on topics popular on this site and on twitter.
Hand of the future is a tongue and cheek reference to the recent comment by Boris Johnson in the great hall of Stormont. His entire speech seemed unprepared, uninformed and representative of a distant Westminster bubble.
Yet I thought it nicely summed up what I want this podcast to be about, achieving a future not blighted by a conflicted past and using Stormont as a vehicle for progress.
In episode one, I spoke to Seán Brennan. He is an academic who recently wrote a piece for Slugger entitled “citizen can.” He has practised and studied peacebuilding both within the academy and on the ground in north Belfast communities. He points to the “disconnect” between the theory and the practice of peacebuilding and post-conflict studies.
Sean uses a “post structural” methodology which he explains in the podcast. His work on north Belfast loyalist communities challenged the narrative of the troubles and he points to the early political agitations within the loyalist community (Irish suffragettes and trade unionism having their roots within Northern unionism).
We also discuss the effect of post-imperialism on western thought, the new-Marxist thinking and rejection of soviet communism by Foucault in 1960s and the climate emergency. To understand how all these come together under the thesis of “bio political peace building” please have a listen to episode one and let me know in comments or on twitter what you think!
Photo by StockSnap is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA


sluggerotoole--2020-03-02--Why we should not take too much offence at what anyone puts on Facebook?

In my view , Facebook is a huge source of fake news and non-news .
In a place where we don ’ t have far to look for sources of outrage , the news that the newly elected president of Queens SU has boosted memes glorifying the IRA seems run of the mill .
I don ’ t buy into the politics of offence myself .
I ’ ve seen it used selectively in the past to narrow the field on which conversations can take place .
Put in ‘ loyalist band Derry ’ and you ’ ll get a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ consequences .
In the US , we have a president in the White House who actively trades on and builds his own political capital by trading off the offence and outrage he is able to garner amongst his opponents .
Clearly , in some cases , there ’ s a line .
But how and when do we draw it ?
Does it change with time , or who creates the offence ?
Or is it just good for political business to be as offensive as you can get away with , in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ their cool ?
Perhaps in the search for actual meaning through Facebook and tweets , we have to navigate catgifs , selfies and cowbells .
[ Er , what ?
– Ed ] Okay , my friend John Kellden ( sort of ) explains : …with FB status updates , once in a while , we need less cowbell .
Or at the very least , not have everyone in the orchestra playing cowbell .
– Polarized , polarizing cowbell – Taking offense cowbell – Going on our own unique , badgering others @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is immune from the communal “ Cowbell disease ” .
The would-be interlocutor who thinks that in an argument with someone he doesn ’ t agree with , all s/he has to bang her/his cowbell a bit louder to win the point .
“ Cowbell ” by PseudoGil is licensed under CC BY

In my view, Facebook is a huge source of fake news and non-news. In a place where we don’t have far to look for sources of outrage, the news that the newly elected president of Queens SU has boosted memes glorifying the IRA seems run of the mill.
I don’t buy into the politics of offence myself. I’ve seen it used selectively in the past to narrow the field on which conversations can take place. Put in ‘loyalist band Derry’ and you’ll get a story of ‘offence’ with real-world consequences.
In the US, we have a president in the White House who actively trades on and builds his own political capital by trading off the offence and outrage he is able to garner amongst his opponents.
Clearly, in some cases, there’s a line. But how and when do we draw it? Does it change with time, or who creates the offence? Or is it just good for political business to be as offensive as you can get away with, in order to force your opponents to lose their cool?
Perhaps in the search for actual meaning through Facebook and tweets, we have to navigate catgifs, selfies and cowbells. [Er, what? – Ed] Okay, my friend John Kellden (sort of) explains:
…with FB status updates, once in a while, we need less cowbell. Or at the very least, not have everyone in the orchestra playing cowbell. Recent exhibits: – Polarized, polarizing cowbell
– Taking offense cowbell
– Going on our own unique, badgering others, cowbell
Not even poor old Slugger is immune from the communal “Cowbell disease”. The would-be interlocutor who thinks that in an argument with someone he doesn’t agree with, all s/he has to bang her/his cowbell a bit louder to win the point.
“Cowbell” by PseudoGil is licensed under CC BY


sluggerotoole--2020-03-03--Most of us have already had a Coronavirus at some stage, so stay calm…

I was trying to see how long we could go without writing about the Coronavirus .
But it is such a hot topic we had to crack and give you a chance to air your views .
It does seem like every media outlet is doing their best to scare the absolute be-Jesus out of us .
Every front page screams doom , and every phone-in show competes to terrify us .
For the best coverage on the issue , listen to this week ’ s David McWilliams podcast .
He interviews Professor Luke O ’ Neill from TCD .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ and an expert in all this stuff .
He explains in a calm rational manner how it came about , how it will be treated , and how it will in all likely hood be gone in a few months .
Most importantly , if you do get it , it will be nothing worse than a bad cold for most of us .
Here is the good doctor on the Late Late Show : The key message is that the new virus is a member of the Coronavirus family .
It is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Coronaviruses that have been circulating since at least 8000 BC .
From the Wikipedia page : So if you have had a cold the past few years you are likely to be familiar with this troublesome family of viruses .
Like a lot of respiratory diseases , the key risk groups are older people with underlying health problems .
Any death is a tragedy , but it is important to keep a sense of perspective .
You might have seen this knocking around on social media : I can ’ t verify the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ idea .
You are very unlikely to die from the Coronavirus .
Instead , what will finish you off is smoking , drinking too much , poor diet , too much stress , lack of exercise , etc .
But all these are boring , so instead we prefer to freak the feck out about new viruses from the East .
Like most parents , I find the most terrifying thing is the thought that they might close the schools – it is bad enough trying to entertain them for 2 months in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the current risks of dying per age group : The worst effects are going to be economic .
Tourism is getting hit , as is the hospitality industry .
So do your bit for the economy and do as the good book tells us – eat , drink and be merry for tomorrow we will very likely not die .
My advice is simple – only panic when the experts panic .
When I see Professor Luke O ’ Neill stopping off at LIDL to stock up on canned goods before heading to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will panic .
Until then be sceptical of a media who make money from scaring you .
Go about your business until you are told otherwise , and most importantly : please wash your hands .

I was trying to see how long we could go without writing about the Coronavirus. But it is such a hot topic we had to crack and give you a chance to air your views.
It does seem like every media outlet is doing their best to scare the absolute be-Jesus out of us. Every front page screams doom, and every phone-in show competes to terrify us.
For the best coverage on the issue, listen to this week’s David McWilliams podcast. He interviews Professor Luke O’Neill from TCD. The good Professor is a specialist immunologist and an expert in all this stuff. He explains in a calm rational manner how it came about, how it will be treated, and how it will in all likely hood be gone in a few months. Most importantly, if you do get it, it will be nothing worse than a bad cold for most of us. Here is the good doctor on the Late Late Show:
"That's the number 1 recommendation, keep washing your hands." Luke O'Neill, Professor of Immunology at Trinity College Dublin gives some practical info about the Coronavirus and how to get advice on https://t.co/NCaPhLB5HJ. #LateLate pic.twitter.com/W871q90sKc — The Late Late Show (@RTELateLateShow) February 28, 2020
The key message is that the new virus is a member of the Coronavirus family. It is basically the younger brother to the existing Coronaviruses that have been circulating since at least 8000 BC. From the Wikipedia page:
Coronaviruses are believed to cause 15 to 30% of all common colds in adults and children.
So if you have had a cold the past few years you are likely to be familiar with this troublesome family of viruses.
Like a lot of respiratory diseases, the key risk groups are older people with underlying health problems. Any death is a tragedy, but it is important to keep a sense of perspective. You might have seen this knocking around on social media:
I can’t verify the figures, but you get the overall idea. You are very unlikely to die from the Coronavirus. Instead, what will finish you off is smoking, drinking too much, poor diet, too much stress, lack of exercise, etc. But all these are boring, so instead we prefer to freak the feck out about new viruses from the East. Like most parents, I find the most terrifying thing is the thought that they might close the schools – it is bad enough trying to entertain them for 2 months in the summer.
For reference here are the current risks of dying per age group:
The worst effects are going to be economic. Tourism is getting hit, as is the hospitality industry. So do your bit for the economy and do as the good book tells us – eat, drink and be merry for tomorrow we will very likely not die.
My advice is simple – only panic when the experts panic. When I see Professor Luke O’Neill stopping off at LIDL to stock up on canned goods before heading to his remote hideaway in Leitrim then I will panic. Until then be sceptical of a media who make money from scaring you. Go about your business until you are told otherwise, and most importantly: please wash your hands.


sluggerotoole--2020-03-04--An expert view on Covid 19, the new Coronavirus…

The majority of experts internationally believe that Covid 19 will continue to be transmitted and countries will see outbreaks .
What isn ’ t known is when and how it will evolve in different regions , and how other factors such as climate may influence the outbreak .
Information is coming out from China at a rapid rate and we are fortunate to benefit from studies and research undertaken by the Chinese health authorities .
They are to be commended for their rapid response and sharing of data .
A recent statement in the Lancet medical journal from international public @ @ @ @ @ @ @ there are randomised control trials investigating treatments in China and some of these results will be available within weeks which is unprecedented for a new infection and reflects pre-planning by the World Health Organisation and experts in China , and experience gathered from previous outbreaks .
Covid-19 is different from some recent infectious diseases outbreaks and it is for these reasons that it is not possible to control it in the way that SARS and Ebola were brought under control .
SARS , also a coronavirus had a much higher case fatality rate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ In the SARS outbreak in 2003 , many of the transmissions were from sick people in hospitals who had higher levels of virus .
The severity of the illness allowed early identification and isolation of cases and prevented onward transmission .
Once this was recognised , high-level infection control practices in hospitals , and good contact tracing in the community brought the number of cases under control and eventually it was eliminated .
A similar effort brought the EBOLA outbreak under control in West Africa , and during that epidemic effective vaccines were @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in Democratic Republic of Congo .
Thankfully , Covid-19 has a much lower case fatality rate , but conversely this means there are many people who have minor symptoms and they are hard to identify .
Covid 19 is much more infectious early in the illness , and the mild illness in the majority of people has made it harder to detect and control .
Children have not been seriously affected in figures so far , so the assumption is they have mild disease but they will also transmit the virus in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by children .
There is always a caution and uncertainty in the fatality rates at the start of an outbreak .
People may become ill , receive intensive care treatment and may not succumb to their illness for some weeks , so the initial rate seems lower .
If there are a large number of people with mild infection , they will not be counted in an outbreak situation and so the case fatality rate can appear higher than it actually is .
This was seen initially with H1N1 ( Swine flu ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in Mexico were in the order of 6 % , but within weeks it was clear that it was much lower and the final rate was 0.1 % .
It is important to also realise that there are established protocols and factories set up to develop influenza vaccines every year , and the swine Flu vaccine reduced the overall fatality rates .
Fatality rates for Covid 19 are not certain , and presently experts believe it is between 1-2 % .
However some cohorts have published lower rates .
Experts agree the fatality @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , but it is higher than influenza .
What is also clear is that approximately 14 % of people needed hospital care in Wuhan , and that approximately 5 % of people needed very high level care .
This will strain any health service , and good planning and trying to control transmission in the community will be required to mitigate this .
Older adults and those with chronic illness are most at risk .
However , the vast majority of people will have mild illness and will not require treatment .
Managing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ public health authorities regionally nationally and internationally .
I have no doubt our various public bodies will have been working tirelessly in Northern Ireland over the last several weeks .
It is important we adopt a scientific approach to Covid 19 and accept that our epidemiology ( pattern of spread in the community ) may differ from Britain , and will not follow a political border .
The first case in the island of Ireland showed how our island is interconnected but also how our respective organisations were able to co-operate .
From @ @ @ @ @ @ @ island of Ireland should not be treated as two units .
It is entirely possible that Britain and the island of Ireland will be at different points in their epidemic curve and will need different decisions to manage localised outbreaks at different times .
Since last week , people from N.I .
are accessing advice from NHS111 in England .
As an extreme example , call handlers could give advice to people from Newry based on what is happening in England , but in actual fact they are unaware that the epidemiology of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The response and management needs to be flexible to account for the border on the island .
Public Health England and Scottish public health authorities have started to test random people with flu symptoms and people with severe pneumonia for Covid 19 even if they haven ’ t travelled to any of the affected areas .
N.I needs to be considered as a different unit from an epidemiological point of view and we will need to know our own epidemiology going forward to allow us to manage cases and outbreaks when they arise @ @ @ @ @ @ @ local response to Covid 19 and all thoughts are my own .
“ Protected ” by frankieleon is licensed under CC BY

The majority of experts internationally believe that Covid 19 will continue to be transmitted and countries will see outbreaks. What isn’t known is when and how it will evolve in different regions, and how other factors such as climate may influence the outbreak. Information is coming out from China at a rapid rate and we are fortunate to benefit from studies and research undertaken by the Chinese health authorities. They are to be commended for their rapid response and sharing of data. A recent statement in the Lancet medical journal from international public health experts applauded their response. Currently there are randomised control trials investigating treatments in China and some of these results will be available within weeks which is unprecedented for a new infection and reflects pre-planning by the World Health Organisation and experts in China, and experience gathered from previous outbreaks.
Covid-19 is different from some recent infectious diseases outbreaks and it is for these reasons that it is not possible to control it in the way that SARS and Ebola were brought under control. SARS, also a coronavirus had a much higher case fatality rate but it was not very transmissible. In the SARS outbreak in 2003, many of the transmissions were from sick people in hospitals who had higher levels of virus. The severity of the illness allowed early identification and isolation of cases and prevented onward transmission. Once this was recognised, high-level infection control practices in hospitals, and good contact tracing in the community brought the number of cases under control and eventually it was eliminated. A similar effort brought the EBOLA outbreak under control in West Africa, and during that epidemic effective vaccines were developed and they are now being used in Democratic Republic of Congo.
Thankfully, Covid-19 has a much lower case fatality rate, but conversely this means there are many people who have minor symptoms and they are hard to identify. Covid 19 is much more infectious early in the illness, and the mild illness in the majority of people has made it harder to detect and control. Children have not been seriously affected in figures so far, so the assumption is they have mild disease but they will also transmit the virus in the way other common respiratory infections are transmitted by children. There is always a caution and uncertainty in the fatality rates at the start of an outbreak. People may become ill, receive intensive care treatment and may not succumb to their illness for some weeks, so the initial rate seems lower. If there are a large number of people with mild infection, they will not be counted in an outbreak situation and so the case fatality rate can appear higher than it actually is. This was seen initially with H1N1 (Swine flu) where the initial case fatality rates reported in Mexico were in the order of 6%, but within weeks it was clear that it was much lower and the final rate was 0.1%. It is important to also realise that there are established protocols and factories set up to develop influenza vaccines every year, and the swine Flu vaccine reduced the overall fatality rates.
Fatality rates for Covid 19 are not certain, and presently experts believe it is between 1-2%. However some cohorts have published lower rates. Experts agree the fatality rate is not as high as SARS, but it is higher than influenza. What is also clear is that approximately 14% of people needed hospital care in Wuhan, and that approximately 5% of people needed very high level care. This will strain any health service, and good planning and trying to control transmission in the community will be required to mitigate this. Older adults and those with chronic illness are most at risk. However, the vast majority of people will have mild illness and will not require treatment.
Managing this outbreak requires a coordinated response from public health authorities regionally nationally and internationally. I have no doubt our various public bodies will have been working tirelessly in Northern Ireland over the last several weeks. It is important we adopt a scientific approach to Covid 19 and accept that our epidemiology (pattern of spread in the community) may differ from Britain, and will not follow a political border. The first case in the island of Ireland showed how our island is interconnected but also how our respective organisations were able to co-operate.
From an infectious diseases epidemiological perspective, the island of Ireland should not be treated as two units. It is entirely possible that Britain and the island of Ireland will be at different points in their epidemic curve and will need different decisions to manage localised outbreaks at different times. Since last week, people from N.I. are accessing advice from NHS111 in England. As an extreme example, call handlers could give advice to people from Newry based on what is happening in England, but in actual fact they are unaware that the epidemiology of coronavirus in Dundalk is more relevant. The response and management needs to be flexible to account for the border on the island. Public Health England and Scottish public health authorities have started to test random people with flu symptoms and people with severe pneumonia for Covid 19 even if they haven’t travelled to any of the affected areas. N.I needs to be considered as a different unit from an epidemiological point of view and we will need to know our own epidemiology going forward to allow us to manage cases and outbreaks when they arise.
Dr Claire Donnelly.
Infectious diseases specialist with expertise in infectious diseases epidemiology.
I am not involved in the local response to Covid 19 and all thoughts are my own.
“Protected” by frankieleon is licensed under CC BY


sluggerotoole--2020-03-04--Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales rank amongst the lowest countries in the developed world for th

Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales rank amongst the lowest countries in the developed world for the number of intensive care beds

The response to the Covid-19 coronavirus has raised questions regarding the capability of health systems to deal with an influx of patients requiring intensive care .
It is estimated that one in seven of those who get Covid-19 will require hospital treatment , and out of those one in five will require ICU care .
A widespread outbreak of Covid-19 would therefore put an unprecedented strain on intensive care facilities across the world .
The chart above shows the number of ICU beds per 100,000 people in a range of countries around the world , with European countries in blue @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and countries in Asia or Australasia in yellow .
The four countries of the UK are shown separately ( in purple ) .
The data for China is from 2010 and likely out of date .
Alongside Portugal ; Northern Ireland , Scotland and Wales have the fewest intensive care beds per person in the developed world .
With 100 beds , Northern Ireland has 5.3 ICU beds per 100,000 people ; Wales has 5.4 and Scotland has 5.1 .
All parts of the UK and Ireland lag far behind countries such @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 34 ICU beds per 100,000 people , Germany ( 29.2 ) , Romania ( 21.4 ) or Kazakhstan ( 21.3 ) .
Compared with countries that have already experienced significant numbers of Covid-19 patients Northern Ireland is much closer to Iran , which has 4.6 ICU beds per 100,000 , than Italy which has 12.5 .
The facilities available in intensive care units is also an important factor .
The low mortality rates in mainland China outside Hubei province ( around 1 % ) have been attributed to widespread use of extracorporeal membrane @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ t work .
The mortality rate has been observed to be much higher ( 3.2 % ) in Italy where this treatment isn ’ t as widely available , even though the number of ICU beds per 100,000 people in Italy ( 12.5 ) is higher than the European average ( 11.5 ) .
There are no ECMO facilities available in Northern Ireland , Scotland , or Wales .
There are currently only 15 beds in all of the UK that offer this treatment across hospitals in London , Cambridge , Manchester @ @ @ @ @ @ @ increased in an emergency ; there were 30 beds available at the peak of the 2018-19 winter flu season .
ECMO is also provided at the Mater Hospital in Dublin ; there are seven available beds in that ICU .
The crisis in Northern Ireland ’ s hospital waiting times is an oft-cited example of the dismal state that the local healthcare system is in .
However , the scant provision of intensive care facilities is another area in which standards have fallen far behind other countries .

The response to the Covid-19 coronavirus has raised questions regarding the capability of health systems to deal with an influx of patients requiring intensive care.
It is estimated that one in seven of those who get Covid-19 will require hospital treatment, and out of those one in five will require ICU care. A widespread outbreak of Covid-19 would therefore put an unprecedented strain on intensive care facilities across the world.
The chart above shows the number of ICU beds per 100,000 people in a range of countries around the world, with European countries in blue, countries in the Americas in red, and countries in Asia or Australasia in yellow. The four countries of the UK are shown separately (in purple). The data for China is from 2010 and likely out of date.
Alongside Portugal; Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales have the fewest intensive care beds per person in the developed world. With 100 beds, Northern Ireland has 5.3 ICU beds per 100,000 people; Wales has 5.4 and Scotland has 5.1. All parts of the UK and Ireland lag far behind countries such as the United States, which has 34 ICU beds per 100,000 people, Germany (29.2), Romania (21.4) or Kazakhstan (21.3).
Compared with countries that have already experienced significant numbers of Covid-19 patients Northern Ireland is much closer to Iran, which has 4.6 ICU beds per 100,000, than Italy which has 12.5.
The facilities available in intensive care units is also an important factor. The low mortality rates in mainland China outside Hubei province (around 1%) have been attributed to widespread use of extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) when ventilation doesn’t work. The mortality rate has been observed to be much higher (3.2%) in Italy where this treatment isn’t as widely available, even though the number of ICU beds per 100,000 people in Italy (12.5) is higher than the European average (11.5).
There are no ECMO facilities available in Northern Ireland, Scotland, or Wales. There are currently only 15 beds in all of the UK that offer this treatment across hospitals in London, Cambridge, Manchester and Leicester, although this can be increased in an emergency; there were 30 beds available at the peak of the 2018-19 winter flu season. ECMO is also provided at the Mater Hospital in Dublin; there are seven available beds in that ICU.
The crisis in Northern Ireland’s hospital waiting times is an oft-cited example of the dismal state that the local healthcare system is in. However, the scant provision of intensive care facilities is another area in which standards have fallen far behind other countries.
Sources:
Europe https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00134-012-2627-8
Asia https://www.researchgate.net/publication/338520008_Critical_Care_Bed_Capacity_in_Asian_Countries_and_Regions
United States https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4351597/
Canada https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4426537/
Brazil https://healthmanagement.org/uploads/article_attachment/icu-v16-i3-brazil.pdf
Chile https://healthmanagement.org/c/icu/issuearticle/a-glance-at-intensive-care-medicine-in-chile
Latin America https://www.atsjournals.org/doi/full/10.1164/rccm.201207-1333CP
Australasia https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/0310057X1003800124
Northern Ireland https://www.itv.com/news/utv/2020-03-03/100-critical-care-beds-ready-for-coronavirus-in-northern-ireland/
Scotland https://www.sicsag.scot.nhs.uk/publications/_docs/2019/2019-08-13-SICSAG-report.pdf?1
Wales https://www.ficm.ac.uk/sites/default/files/icm-and-cc-facilities-in-wales-md.pdf
England https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/critical-care-capacity/


sluggerotoole--2020-03-05--Carla Lockhart: we need the power to drag social media platforms into a space where they are account

Carla Lockhart: we need the power to drag social media platforms into a space where they are accountable…

An interesting snippet dropped into Slugger ’ s inbox from the DUP Upper Bann MP Carla Lockhart this evening : As we mark International Women ’ s Day in the House of Commons , many contributions to the debate highlighted the continued problem faced by many women online .
The vicious comments , the bullying , trolling and stalking of many women has been well documented , and indeed many women from Northern Ireland have spoken out in recent times about the horrendous experiences they have had online .
Recently the Government announced its intention to tackle this issue and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as an online watchdog .
While this is a positive step , it will only truly be effective if it has the necessary powers to tackle the issue , and to drag social media platforms into a space where they are held accountable .
Furthermore , there must be a penalty through the courts for those who engage in this activity – the keyboard coward must be held accountable too .
I made clear in the House that in order to shape Government policy on this issue , it would be good for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ who have faced this experience .
I was glad that fellow MPs shared this view .
My hope is that DCMS agree to meet me to discuss my experiences and also that I can share the stories of others who have spoken out publicly , but also privately to me .
An informed discussion will make better , more effective policy , and women should be at the heart of that .
In fact , this is not just a matter which affects women in public life , nor even anonymous internet trolls @ @ @ @ @ @ @ February 2018 was dispatched with an apology .
My friend John Kellden noted at the time that this was… …a systemic dysfunction .
For some strange reason , completely removed from dignity , accountability or just plain common human decency , someone who still expects to be seen as an electable public servant , chose to go all in on defamation , with public grovelling as the consequence .
A system that produces behavior like this , is a system that no longer serves .
With the sort of anonymous folk that Ms @ @ @ @ @ @ @ get that far .
It begs the question as to whether there is any possibility of having a civil debate on any subject whilst platforms like Twitter can be flooded with unaccountable trolls .
We ’ ve heard of accounts that have lain dormant over the last two years which at the turn of a wheel have suddenly come back to life doing what they had been doing before , which is seeking out political opponents and attacking them .
Another friend , John Pollock , writing for Technology Review a few years @ @ @ @ @ @ @ diplomat George Kennan , talking about the old Soviet Union , he noted an obsession amongst other things… Elsewhere Pollock also quotes Ben Nimo on a Russian tactic called “ the 4D approach ” : These ‘ new ’ platforms were built not with openness and accountability ( or even common human decency ) in mind .
I don ’ t know what the answer is .
How do you keep these ‘ new ’ channels open , free , but also accountable ?
Karl Popper in his Open Society and its Enemies @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tolerance : Unlimited tolerance must lead to the disappearance of tolerance .
If we extend unlimited tolerance even to those who are intolerant , if we are not prepared to defend a tolerant society against the onslaught of the intolerant , then the tolerant will be destroyed , and tolerance with them .

An interesting snippet dropped into Slugger’s inbox from the DUP Upper Bann MP Carla Lockhart this evening:
As we mark International Women’s Day in the House of Commons, many contributions to the debate highlighted the continued problem faced by many women online. The vicious comments, the bullying, trolling and stalking of many women has been well documented, and indeed many women from Northern Ireland have spoken out in recent times about the horrendous experiences they have had online. Recently the Government announced its intention to tackle this issue and how it was minded to use Ofcom as an online watchdog. While this is a positive step, it will only truly be effective if it has the necessary powers to tackle the issue, and to drag social media platforms into a space where they are held accountable. Furthermore, there must be a penalty through the courts for those who engage in this activity – the keyboard coward must be held accountable too. I made clear in the House that in order to shape Government policy on this issue, it would be good for women’s voices to be heard who have faced this experience. I was glad that fellow MPs shared this view. My hope is that DCMS agree to meet me to discuss my experiences and also that I can share the stories of others who have spoken out publicly, but also privately to me. An informed discussion will make better, more effective policy, and women should be at the heart of that.
In fact, this is not just a matter which affects women in public life, nor even anonymous internet trolls. Ben Bradley’s outburst in February 2018 was dispatched with an apology. My friend John Kellden noted at the time that this was…
…a systemic dysfunction. For some strange reason, completely removed from dignity, accountability or just plain common human decency, someone who still expects to be seen as an electable public servant, chose to go all in on defamation, with public grovelling as the consequence. A system that produces behavior like this, is a system that no longer serves.
With the sort of anonymous folk that Ms Lockhart mentions, it does not even get that far. It begs the question as to whether there is any possibility of having a civil debate on any subject whilst platforms like Twitter can be flooded with unaccountable trolls.
We’ve heard of accounts that have lain dormant over the last two years which at the turn of a wheel have suddenly come back to life doing what they had been doing before, which is seeking out political opponents and attacking them.
Another friend, John Pollock, writing for Technology Review a few years back shared this quote from the U.S. diplomat George Kennan, talking about the old Soviet Union, he noted an obsession amongst other things…
…secrecy; the systematic mystification; the general silence of intimidation; the preoccupation with appearances at the expense of reality; the systematic cultivation of falsehood as a weapon of policy; the tendency to rewrite the past.
Elsewhere Pollock also quotes Ben Nimo on a Russian tactic called “the 4D approach”:
Dismiss, distort, distract, dismay. Never confess, never admit—just keep on attacking. They use a ‘vilify and amplify’ technique.
These ‘new’ platforms were built not with openness and accountability (or even common human decency) in mind. I don’t know what the answer is. How do you keep these ‘new’ channels open, free, but also accountable?
Karl Popper in his Open Society and its Enemies noted something he called the paradox of tolerance:
Unlimited tolerance must lead to the disappearance of tolerance. If we extend unlimited tolerance even to those who are intolerant, if we are not prepared to defend a tolerant society against the onslaught of the intolerant, then the tolerant will be destroyed, and tolerance with them.
Hmmm….


sluggerotoole--2020-03-05--If anti state aid legislation still applies post Brexit, how will we get back our lost Flybe connect

If anti state aid legislation still applies post Brexit, how will we get back our lost Flybe connectivity?

So the end has finally come for FlyBe .
I have to say it has been my favourite carrier for a very long time , not least because it ’ s regional network brings into play a lot of regional spots that means you can avoid the over-congested London airports .
I began to think that the business model was in difficulties probably about five or six years ago when then Southampton route began to price itself out of my own low budget threshold forcing me to switch more often to Bristol and latterly Birmingham .
My last flight with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ canceled the mid-afternoon flight and ran it late in the pm forcing a very tight schedule on me once on the other side .
Then came the promises of government support .
Last night BBC Breakfast ’ s Holly Hamilton narrated the last hours of the airline on Twitter : The News Letter carries criticism of the non appearance of help from the UK government : Labour MP Ben Bradshaw , whose constituency contains Exeter Airport , where Flybe had its headquarters , tweeted : “ A devastating day for @ flybe staff @ @ @ @ @ @ @ blow to our local & regional economy .
“ Why did the Government say # flybe was vital to regional connectivity last month & promise to reform Air Passenger Duty in next week ’ s budget … to apparently break that promise , which was the last straw for the company.
” He added : “ Johnson ’ s mantra of ‘ leveling up ’ our left-behind regions lies in tatters .
Lost connectivity & the future of many regional airlines at risk.
” Most jobs are in Bradshaw ’ s backyard .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ is potentially much larger .
Flybe handles 81 % of the traffic at Belfast City Airport , with 100 Flybe staff , and an additional 400 ground staff jobs are at stake .
As Stephen Farry noted in Westminster this morning , this is 25 % of Northern Ireland ’ s air traffic capacity , to which he received a fairly anodyne answer from Kelly Tolhurst , the Transport parliamentary undersecretary .
However , the presumption here is that the government would have been able to make good on those promises .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ still apply during transition meaning that direct help would have been illegal .
In recent times , several million were to be made available to the City of Derry Airport , but that plan seems to have been mothballed .
Northern Ireland may be a special case , it ’ s a case of whether it can be safeguarded .
Much will depend on the outcome of negotiations of course , but there ’ s a serious question of the degree to which Northern Ireland ( effectively still in the single market come @ @ @ @ @ @ @ diverge from EU regs .
Despite this turn of events there does not seem to be any panic just yet .
As noted above , this appears to have been a long curve downwards for Flybe .
And its business decision appears to have spurned the rescue measures .
City Airport is conveniently placed for business and tourist travel .
But of course , the refusal to extend the runway in 2010 has created a barrier to entry and therefore the number of operators who can step in and take up these vital @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Belfast , Northern Ireland ” by mattk1979 is licensed under CC BY-SA

So the end has finally come for FlyBe. I have to say it has been my favourite carrier for a very long time, not least because it’s regional network brings into play a lot of regional spots that means you can avoid the over-congested London airports.
I began to think that the business model was in difficulties probably about five or six years ago when then Southampton route began to price itself out of my own low budget threshold forcing me to switch more often to Bristol and latterly Birmingham.
My last flight with them was last summer when they surreptitiously canceled the mid-afternoon flight and ran it late in the pm forcing a very tight schedule on me once on the other side. Then came the promises of government support.
Last night BBC Breakfast’s Holly Hamilton narrated the last hours of the airline on Twitter:
The News Letter carries criticism of the non appearance of help from the UK government: Labour MP Ben Bradshaw, whose constituency contains Exeter Airport, where Flybe had its headquarters, tweeted: “A devastating day for @flybe staff, uncertainty for passengers & a big blow to our local & regional economy. “Why did the Government say #flybe was vital to regional connectivity last month & promise to reform Air Passenger Duty in next week’s budget … to apparently break that promise, which was the last straw for the company.” He added: “Johnson’s mantra of ‘leveling up’ our left-behind regions lies in tatters. Lost connectivity & the future of many regional airlines at risk.” Most jobs are in Bradshaw’s backyard. But the effect on the NI economy is potentially much larger. Flybe handles 81% of the traffic at Belfast City Airport, with 100 Flybe staff, and an additional 400 ground staff jobs are at stake. As Stephen Farry noted in Westminster this morning, this is 25% of Northern Ireland’s air traffic capacity, to which he received a fairly anodyne answer from Kelly Tolhurst, the Transport parliamentary undersecretary. However, the presumption here is that the government would have been able to make good on those promises. The EU’s regulations banning state aid still apply during transition meaning that direct help would have been illegal. In recent times, several million were to be made available to the City of Derry Airport, but that plan seems to have been mothballed. Northern Ireland may be a special case, it’s a case of whether it can be safeguarded. Much will depend on the outcome of negotiations of course, but there’s a serious question of the degree to which Northern Ireland (effectively still in the single market come what may) would be allowed to diverge from EU regs. Despite this turn of events there does not seem to be any panic just yet. As noted above, this appears to have been a long curve downwards for Flybe. And its business decision appears to have spurned the rescue measures. City Airport is conveniently placed for business and tourist travel. But of course, the refusal to extend the runway in 2010 has created a barrier to entry and therefore the number of operators who can step in and take up these vital routes.
“George Best City Airport, Belfast, Northern Ireland” by mattk1979 is licensed under CC BY-SA


sluggerotoole--2020-03-05--Pandemics come and go; but smoking, air pollution and poverty are ever present…

The always excellent Dr Phil Hammond gives a much-needed sense of perspective on the Coronavirus outbreak in his latest MD @ @ @ @ @ Click the image below to enlarge it to read the text , read all 3 @ @ @ @ @ are around 8.8m early deaths a year worldwide caused by outdoor air pollution alone .
@ @ @ @ @ quality has been linked to 178 deaths in a single year .
Last December the @ @ @ @ @ Donegal was worse than New Delhi .
Then there are the tens of thousands of @ @ @ @ @ If the government put as much effort into fighting poverty and inequally we would all @ @ @ @ @ Photo by Foto-Rabe is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA


sluggerotoole--2020-03-05--Coronavirus kills off Flybe…

Coronavirus kills off Flybe…

The troubled airline Flybe which was already on life support for the past few months has gone into administration .
@ @ @ @ @ George Best airport , making up about 80 % of all their scheduled flights .
@ @ @ @ @ cancelled and its passengers have been advised not to go to the airport .
It @ @ @ @ @ last business to be hit by the economic downturn following the Coronavirus outbreak .
In @ @ @ @ @ is a big loss to the city Airport but in the long term , you @ @ @ @ @ over the popular routes .
Photo by Riik @ mctr is licensed under CC BY-SA

The troubled airline Flybe which was already on life support for the past few months has gone into administration.
Flybe operated 14 routes from George Best airport, making up about 80% of all their scheduled flights. All Flybe flights have been cancelled and its passengers have been advised not to go to the airport.
It will likely not be the last business to be hit by the economic downturn following the Coronavirus outbreak.
In the short term, it is a big loss to the city Airport but in the long term, you can see other airlines taking over the popular routes.
Photo by [email protected] is licensed under CC BY-SA


sluggerotoole--2020-03-06--Railway radicalism beats motorway madness… but new high-speed lines are off the menu

From Michael Rafferty , PhD student in Geography at the University of Luxembourg .
The Salmon of Data deserves credit for his punchy , intriguing provocation on a radical but somehow arguable idea : a new high-speed rail link from Derry to Dublin .
While this particular proposal is several bridges too far , there is significant merit in the concept of expanding rail , even to the North West—and with some ( fairly major ) alterations it deserves serious and timely consideration , particularly in comparison with current infrastructure projects .
The Salmon gets some things completely right : @ @ @ @ @ @ @ around Greater Dublin as it approaches the 2 million population threshold without commensurate improvement of infrastructure in and around the city , while speculative property markets and the cost of living drive people further and further away from their workplaces .
The strategy of successive Irish governments since the childhood of the Celtic Tiger has been to position Dublin as a magnet for global flows of capital at the expense of other urban areas and large sections of the city ’ s population .
Currently , 200,000 Irish workers have commutes of more @ @ @ @ @ @ @ work , the majority in what is broadly defined as Greater Dublin .
This is worse than the drudgery endured by the average worker in New York , London and rivaling that of Paris .
The rents are almost as bad and as the major employers in finance , tech and professional services aim increasingly at international recruitment , which exacerbates an already unsustainable housing situation .
Viewing this process perpetually as “ regional inequality ” is the prerogative of Canute holding back the tide : Ireland is urbanising around Dublin ( and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the coming decades whether we like it or not .
Could rail expansion be a solution ?
Yes , partly .
But there are some problems to consider in relation to this proposal .
Firstly ( and speaking for it ) , it ’ s not the only mad infrastructural idea in the market for this geographical area .
The third iteration of the public inquiry for the beleaguered thirteen-year-old plan for the A5 Western Transport Corridor ( the St Andrew ’ s Agreement side-deal for a dual carriageway between Newbuildings and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from Derry to Dublin ) has trundled along without illuminating any serious legal or financial path to completion .
In the end , €1.5 billion for a nearly-finished road seems poor value when set against the Salmon ’ s €6 billion for a top-flight bullet train from city to city , whoever is paying .
But no matter : the abiding philosophy on roadbuilding in Northern Ireland is ‘ no U-turns , ever ’ .
The only partly-funded 2007 A5 scheme has already outlasted three ministers ’ tenures without an inch of road @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the “ highest priority ” for its main political backer , Sinn Féin .
Secondly , ‘ high-speed ’ rail is a non-runner in Ireland , not least because it simply isn ’ t necessary—standard 160km/h rated rail infrastructure makes Dublin accessible in about two hours from any station on the island .
Apart from that , high-speed rail ( i.e .
at the 300 km/h level proposed ) requires economies of scale in energy and land resources which are , for reasons of geographical scale , basically unattainable in Ireland .
Even @ @ @ @ @ @ @ high-speed railway line proposal for similar reasons—this is a model relevant only to highly-populated continental-distance routes where power and passengers are plentiful .
Ireland ( the island ) secured itself an exemption in 2013 from implementing a European Directive on electrifying existing rail infrastructure , meaning that it could continue its very gradual improvements using diesel locomotives , which render anything above standard inter-city speeds technically impossible .
In any case , the current limits of the ‘ commuter belt ’ can not extend much further into the midlands ( never mind to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ corridor on the island will continue to be between the two major cities : Belfast and Dublin .
Thirdly , cutting a new route through the midlands is unnecessary and sub-optimal—the real value lies in connecting the west of Northern Ireland to the main Belfast-Dublin line at Portadown and radically improving this line , as part of what is currently recognised by the EU as a section of a major transport corridor from Belfast-Cork ( itself proposed for a high-speed upgrade only last week by the BBC ’ s Joe Lynam ) .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ feasible : the 12 miles of what is now the downgraded B34 at the end of the M1 to Ballygawley becomes available for conversion to rail following the A4 dual carriageway upgrade completed in 2010 ( not to mention large sections of the old GNR rail route ) .
Fourthly , the real impetus for developing railway links in Ireland should be made around freight first , passengers second .
Despite the endless discussion of how Brexit would affect every aspect of Irish life via logistics , the point that practically none of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by rail seemed to go unmade .
Had a significant portion of the island ’ s goods been transported via rail rather than by road , the question of border traffic-jams and countless checks might not have seemed so intractable .
International rail freight currently crisscrosses customs borders In Europe with relative efficiency , sometimes non-stop .
Intermodal loading technologies and modern port infrastructure make rail freight far more efficient than more senior readers might remember was the case beside Belfast ’ s Adelaide stop up until the 1990s .
Still , today @ @ @ @ @ @ @ shifted by rail in Northern Ireland and Iarnród Éireann ’ s current involvement in freight is only marginally higher , and unlikely to change considering the enormous cost of the road-based logistics panacea represented by Dublin ’ s Port Tunnel .
If you wanted a solution to crammed , unsafe roads , rail freight in ports at Belfast , Dublin , and Rosslare would be a good place to start .
Last , and certainly not least , the environmental weaknesses of current road-based infrastructure planning in both jurisdictions could be substantially addressed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to Derry for both passengers and freight .
The 120km of track ( all in NI ) needed would be a snip against the public sector gains from industry use and the alternative environmental and financial costs of endless roadbuilding and road-based haulage .
The first high court ruling based on the Paris Agreement shelved Heathrow ’ s third runway on the basis of its inevitable contribution to further carbon emissions and therefore climate change .
This ruling ’ s relevance to road expansion projects such as the A5 WTC , Narrow Water @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not be overlooked by any responsible Minister of Infrastructure .
The New Decade , New Approach funding deficit foolishly signed up to by the political parties of the Executive occurs as Translink is vulnerable to collapse .
As far-out as an expansion of the railway network might sound , it won ’ t sound quite as deranged as sacrificing public transport for ( potentially illegal ) spendthrift road-building in a time of climate crisis .
In any case , in a rhetorical world of bridges to Scotland and digital customs borders , it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ideas proportionate so as to maximise their chances of being taken seriously , even if it does disappoint would-be rail enthusiasts in Clones or Virginia .

From Michael Rafferty, PhD student in Geography at the University of Luxembourg.
The Salmon of Data deserves credit for his punchy, intriguing provocation on a radical but somehow arguable idea: a new high-speed rail link from Derry to Dublin. While this particular proposal is several bridges too far, there is significant merit in the concept of expanding rail, even to the North West—and with some (fairly major) alterations it deserves serious and timely consideration, particularly in comparison with current infrastructure projects.
The Salmon gets some things completely right: a major process of urbanisation is underway around Greater Dublin as it approaches the 2 million population threshold without commensurate improvement of infrastructure in and around the city, while speculative property markets and the cost of living drive people further and further away from their workplaces.
The strategy of successive Irish governments since the childhood of the Celtic Tiger has been to position Dublin as a magnet for global flows of capital at the expense of other urban areas and large sections of the city’s population. Currently, 200,000 Irish workers have commutes of more than an hour just to get to work, the majority in what is broadly defined as Greater Dublin.
This is worse than the drudgery endured by the average worker in New York, London and rivaling that of Paris. The rents are almost as bad and as the major employers in finance, tech and professional services aim increasingly at international recruitment, which exacerbates an already unsustainable housing situation.
Viewing this process perpetually as “regional inequality” is the prerogative of Canute holding back the tide: Ireland is urbanising around Dublin (and to a lesser degree, Belfast) in the coming decades whether we like it or not.
Could rail expansion be a solution? Yes, partly. But there are some problems to consider in relation to this proposal.
Firstly (and speaking for it), it’s not the only mad infrastructural idea in the market for this geographical area. The third iteration of the public inquiry for the beleaguered thirteen-year-old plan for the A5 Western Transport Corridor (the St Andrew’s Agreement side-deal for a dual carriageway between Newbuildings and Aughnacloy, oft-described as a motorway to from Derry to Dublin) has trundled along without illuminating any serious legal or financial path to completion.
In the end, €1.5 billion for a nearly-finished road seems poor value when set against the Salmon’s €6 billion for a top-flight bullet train from city to city, whoever is paying. But no matter: the abiding philosophy on roadbuilding in Northern Ireland is ‘no U-turns, ever’. The only partly-funded 2007 A5 scheme has already outlasted three ministers’ tenures without an inch of road being laid, yet it is still the “highest priority” for its main political backer, Sinn Féin.
Secondly, ‘high-speed’ rail is a non-runner in Ireland, not least because it simply isn’t necessary—standard 160km/h rated rail infrastructure makes Dublin accessible in about two hours from any station on the island. Apart from that, high-speed rail (i.e. at the 300 km/h level proposed) requires economies of scale in energy and land resources which are, for reasons of geographical scale, basically unattainable in Ireland.
Even Britain struggles to develop only its second high-speed railway line proposal for similar reasons—this is a model relevant only to highly-populated continental-distance routes where power and passengers are plentiful. Ireland (the island) secured itself an exemption in 2013 from implementing a European Directive on electrifying existing rail infrastructure, meaning that it could continue its very gradual improvements using diesel locomotives, which render anything above standard inter-city speeds technically impossible.
In any case, the current limits of the ‘commuter belt’ cannot extend much further into the midlands (never mind to Derry…), and the main inter-urban corridor on the island will continue to be between the two major cities: Belfast and Dublin.
Thirdly, cutting a new route through the midlands is unnecessary and sub-optimal—the real value lies in connecting the west of Northern Ireland to the main Belfast-Dublin line at Portadown and radically improving this line, as part of what is currently recognised by the EU as a section of a major transport corridor from Belfast-Cork (itself proposed for a high-speed upgrade only last week by the BBC’s Joe Lynam).
Addressing the Derry-Portadown gap is already partly feasible: the 12 miles of what is now the downgraded B34 at the end of the M1 to Ballygawley becomes available for conversion to rail following the A4 dual carriageway upgrade completed in 2010 (not to mention large sections of the old GNR rail route).
Fourthly, the real impetus for developing railway links in Ireland should be made around freight first, passengers second. Despite the endless discussion of how Brexit would affect every aspect of Irish life via logistics, the point that practically none of Ireland’s freight is currently carried by rail seemed to go unmade.
Had a significant portion of the island’s goods been transported via rail rather than by road, the question of border traffic-jams and countless checks might not have seemed so intractable. International rail freight currently crisscrosses customs borders In Europe with relative efficiency, sometimes non-stop. Intermodal loading technologies and modern port infrastructure make rail freight far more efficient than more senior readers might remember was the case beside Belfast’s Adelaide stop up until the 1990s.
Still, today not a single tonne of freight is shifted by rail in Northern Ireland and Iarnród Éireann’s current involvement in freight is only marginally higher, and unlikely to change considering the enormous cost of the road-based logistics panacea represented by Dublin’s Port Tunnel. If you wanted a solution to crammed, unsafe roads, rail freight in ports at Belfast, Dublin, and Rosslare would be a good place to start.
Last, and certainly not least, the environmental weaknesses of current road-based infrastructure planning in both jurisdictions could be substantially addressed by extending the railway line from Portadown to Derry for both passengers and freight. The 120km of track (all in NI) needed would be a snip against the public sector gains from industry use and the alternative environmental and financial costs of endless roadbuilding and road-based haulage.
The first high court ruling based on the Paris Agreement shelved Heathrow’s third runway on the basis of its inevitable contribution to further carbon emissions and therefore climate change. This ruling’s relevance to road expansion projects such as the A5 WTC, Narrow Water, and the York St Interchange should not be overlooked by any responsible Minister of Infrastructure.
The New Decade, New Approach funding deficit foolishly signed up to by the political parties of the Executive occurs as Translink is vulnerable to collapse. As far-out as an expansion of the railway network might sound, it won’t sound quite as deranged as sacrificing public transport for (potentially illegal) spendthrift road-building in a time of climate crisis.
In any case, in a rhetorical world of bridges to Scotland and digital customs borders, it’s best to keep serious infrastructural ideas proportionate so as to maximise their chances of being taken seriously, even if it does disappoint would-be rail enthusiasts in Clones or Virginia.
By Milepost98 – Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, Link


sluggerotoole--2020-03-06--A Northern Ireland Rorschach test…

A Northern Ireland Rorschach test…

Tell me what do you see ?
“ ( Rorschach ) II ” by dailyinvention is licensed under CC BY


sluggerotoole--2020-03-06--#NIElectionSurvey: Truth and Reconciliation Commission is preferred by up to 73.6% on both sides of

#NIElectionSurvey: Truth and Reconciliation Commission is preferred by up to 73.6% on both sides of the community

Today the University of Liverpool NI General Election Survey has been published .
It is based on face to face interviews conducted in the run into December ’ s election survey and gives us at least a snapshot of opinion on a range of issues affecting people in NI .
Although it does ( as you would expect ) test sentiment on the border issue at a point of heightened political interest , it also throws some useful light on other matters which pertain more directly to the now functioning institutions of the Belfast Agreement .
Most fascinating is the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Truth and Reconciliation Commission .
This is interesting precisely because no one ( as yet ) is offering one .
Despite that , it is increasingly popular amongst DUP and SF supporters : • Since 2017 there has been a significant shift in favour of a truth and reconciliation commission .
In 2017 31.5 % agreed/strongly agreed .
This has now risen to 45.7 % .
• When removing those who did not express and opinion the share who wish for a truth and reconciliation commission rises to 73.6 % .
• Sinn @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of voters who support a truth and reconciliation commission has risen from 33.4 % to 58.1 % .
When removing those who did not express an opinion the share who wish for a truth and reconciliation commission rises to 90.4 % .
• Democratic Unionist Party ( DUP ) share of voters who support a truth and reconciliation commission has risen from 34.3 % to 49.1 % .
When removing those who did not express and opinion the share who wish for a truth and reconciliation commission rises to 73.4 % .
Like @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I will come back to under a separate heading ) it suggests that under the vacuum of the last three years the voters are coming to conclusions that if not at odds with their preferred parties are not being offered by them .
The legacy process has probably been the most spectacular failure of the peace process , with only selective crimes being picked out and publicised whilst other families have been left with a recovery process that offers only a partial truth recovery for victims .
Besides stoking controversy , Government moves @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ignores the central human right of all victims to justice , but it also overlooks the fact that the current system ignores the pressing issue of reconciliation .
There is a thirst for a form of justice that brings perpetrators to account for the motive and context for each crime , rather than offering families a cold account of how they died at nameless hands , or bunging them a few grand to keep them quiet .
Of course , agreeing on terms for one is another matter , but the fact that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ way on both sides of the so-called divide ought to give our political leaders some pause for thought on how to serve a real societal need .
Photo by Alexas_Fotos is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA

Today the University of Liverpool NI General Election Survey has been published. It is based on face to face interviews conducted in the run into December’s election survey and gives us at least a snapshot of opinion on a range of issues affecting people in NI.
Although it does (as you would expect) test sentiment on the border issue at a point of heightened political interest, it also throws some useful light on other matters which pertain more directly to the now functioning institutions of the Belfast Agreement.
Most fascinating is the surge in interest and support for a Truth and Reconciliation Commission. This is interesting precisely because no one (as yet) is offering one. Despite that, it is increasingly popular amongst DUP and SF supporters:
Since 2017 there has been a significant shift in favour of a truth and reconciliation commission. In 2017 31.5% agreed/strongly agreed. This has now risen to 45.7%.
When removing those who did not express and opinion the share who wish for a truth and reconciliation commission rises to 73.6%.
Sinn Féin’s (SF) share of voters who support a truth and reconciliation commission has risen from 33.4% to 58.1%. When removing those who did not express an opinion the share who wish for a truth and reconciliation commission rises to 90.4%.
Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) share of voters who support a truth and reconciliation commission has risen from 34.3% to 49.1%. When removing those who did not express and opinion the share who wish for a truth and reconciliation commission rises to 73.4%.
Like other parts of the survey (which I will come back to under a separate heading) it suggests that under the vacuum of the last three years the voters are coming to conclusions that if not at odds with their preferred parties are not being offered by them.
The legacy process has probably been the most spectacular failure of the peace process, with only selective crimes being picked out and publicised whilst other families have been left with a recovery process that offers only a partial truth recovery for victims.
Besides stoking controversy, Government moves to provide immunity for British service personnel ignores the central human right of all victims to justice, but it also overlooks the fact that the current system ignores the pressing issue of reconciliation.
There is a thirst for a form of justice that brings perpetrators to account for the motive and context for each crime, rather than offering families a cold account of how they died at nameless hands, or bunging them a few grand to keep them quiet.
Of course, agreeing on terms for one is another matter, but the fact that these figures are trending in the same way on both sides of the so-called divide ought to give our political leaders some pause for thought on how to serve a real societal need.
Photo by Alexas_Fotos is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA


sluggerotoole--2020-03-06--Ahead of the Stormont budget, should the Executive be rethinking its priorities?

With the first budget of the newly reconstituted Northern Ireland Executive expected shortly , there will be an opportunity to consider whether public resources are being directed appropriately to deal with Northern Ireland ’ s priorities for the decade to come .
The table above shows UK public spending per person in each UK region for various expenditure categories for the 2018-19 fiscal year , in both monetary terms and expressed as a percentage of the UK average .
For example , health spending in Northern Ireland is £2,436 per person , which is 6 % higher than the UK @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Items which can ’ t be allocated to a region , such as government debt interest payments , are excluded .
At £11,535 per person , public spending in Northern Ireland is the highest of any of the UK regions .
The main reason for this is high spending on sickness , disability and survivor benefits , which at £1,654 per person is 89 % higher than the UK average of £876 .
Spending is also significantly higher than the UK average in areas such as old age pensions and benefits ( £295 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ) ; policing , fire-protection , courts and prisons ( £201 higher ) ; agriculture ( £176 higher ) and tertiary education ( £277 higher ) .
Whilst it remains to be seen exactly how much the Executive will have available for the next budget , some of the money from last year mightn ’ t be available in the next cycle .
This could include money for welfare reform mitigations ( approximately £40 per person in 2018/19 ) , and the DUP confidence and supply money ( “ the billion pounds for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to £112 per person and was mostly spent on health .
There are some areas where the reasons for public spending being significantly higher in Northern Ireland than other regions are not immediately obvious .
For example , Northern Ireland spends £92 per person on expenditure classed as “ general services ” ; in no other region do such expenditures exceed £18 per person .
Another anomaly is “ religious and other community services ” , where expenditures in Northern Ireland are £26 per person ; in no other region do similar expenditures @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the Assembly itself appears to be in the region of £44 per person , that being the extra amount over the UK average spent on “ executive and legislative organs ” , a bargain compared with the £129 per person spent in Scotland on Holyrood each year .
On the other hand , there are some areas where public expenditures in Northern Ireland are much lower than the UK average .
Spending on public transport in Northern Ireland was only £149 per person for the year , which was 55 % less @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Northern Ireland , along with the North East of England , was one of only two regions to spend more on roads than on public transport .
Environmental protection is another area in which Northern Ireland lags regions in Great Britain .
On average people in the UK spend £7.19 per year on pollution abatement and protection of biodiversity and wildlife ; Northern Ireland spends around five pence per person per year in these areas .
The lack of spending on environmental safeguards and prioritization of roads over public transport is a contributing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ per person being among the highest in the UK .
Spending on schools in Northern Ireland has also fallen behind typical UK spending .
At £565 per person , spending on secondary schools in Northern Ireland is the second lowest of any UK region except Scotland .
A key difference between Great Britain and Northern Ireland in terms of public spending is expenditure on the water supply , which in Northern Ireland is nearly seven times higher than the UK average .
This is because , uniquely in the UK , Northern Ireland @ @ @ @ @ @ @ As a result of this , the water supply and sewerage system is severely underfunded and stretched beyond capacity .
In many areas of Northern Ireland NI Water is not accepting new connections to the public sewerage network .
This is both acting as a brake on economic growth and posing further risks to the environment .
Introducing water charges in Northern Ireland could raise revenues of approximately £350m per year , or £186 per person per year .
This would pay for the £2 billion which will be needed to address deficiencies @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and could release £200m per year to be spent on other priorities .
One such priority could be a reduction in business rates .
Relative to earnings , business rates in Northern Ireland are by far the most expensive in the UK .
In Northern Ireland , revenues from non-domestic rates are virtually at the same level as revenues from corporation taxes .
In England , revenues from rates are less than half ( 49 % ) of corporation tax revenues .
Reducing non-domestic rates by 25 % would bring rates into line @ @ @ @ @ @ @ income with Scotland , where non-domestic rates raise 76 % of the sum raised from corporation tax .
This would cost around £213m , and if offset by newly introduced water charges raising £56m would have a net cost of £157m , or £113 per person per year .
Reducing the rates burden , in particular on small businesses , would be expected to create a significant number of jobs .
Demand for scarce public resources in Northern Ireland is likely to increase ever further over the next few years .
However , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a poor record on environmental protection , creaking infrastructure and exorbitant taxes on small businesses are all serious issues which will require concerted effort by the Northern Ireland Executive if they are to be addressed .

With the first budget of the newly reconstituted Northern Ireland Executive expected shortly, there will be an opportunity to consider whether public resources are being directed appropriately to deal with Northern Ireland’s priorities for the decade to come.
The table above shows UK public spending per person in each UK region for various expenditure categories for the 2018-19 fiscal year, in both monetary terms and expressed as a percentage of the UK average. For example, health spending in Northern Ireland is £2,436 per person, which is 6% higher than the UK average spend of £2,291 per person. Items which can’t be allocated to a region, such as government debt interest payments, are excluded.
At £11,535 per person, public spending in Northern Ireland is the highest of any of the UK regions. The main reason for this is high spending on sickness, disability and survivor benefits, which at £1,654 per person is 89% higher than the UK average of £876. Spending is also significantly higher than the UK average in areas such as old age pensions and benefits (£295 per head higher than the UK average); policing, fire-protection, courts and prisons (£201 higher); agriculture (£176 higher) and tertiary education (£277 higher).
Whilst it remains to be seen exactly how much the Executive will have available for the next budget, some of the money from last year mightn’t be available in the next cycle. This could include money for welfare reform mitigations (approximately £40 per person in 2018/19), and the DUP confidence and supply money (“the billion pounds for the DUP”), which amounted to £112 per person and was mostly spent on health.
There are some areas where the reasons for public spending being significantly higher in Northern Ireland than other regions are not immediately obvious. For example, Northern Ireland spends £92 per person on expenditure classed as “general services”; in no other region do such expenditures exceed £18 per person. Another anomaly is “religious and other community services”, where expenditures in Northern Ireland are £26 per person; in no other region do similar expenditures exceed £2 per person.
The cost of the Assembly itself appears to be in the region of £44 per person, that being the extra amount over the UK average spent on “executive and legislative organs”, a bargain compared with the £129 per person spent in Scotland on Holyrood each year.
On the other hand, there are some areas where public expenditures in Northern Ireland are much lower than the UK average. Spending on public transport in Northern Ireland was only £149 per person for the year, which was 55% less than the UK average of £328. Northern Ireland, along with the North East of England, was one of only two regions to spend more on roads than on public transport.
Environmental protection is another area in which Northern Ireland lags regions in Great Britain. On average people in the UK spend £7.19 per year on pollution abatement and protection of biodiversity and wildlife; Northern Ireland spends around five pence per person per year in these areas.
The lack of spending on environmental safeguards and prioritization of roads over public transport is a contributing factor towards Northern Ireland greenhouse gas emissions per person being among the highest in the UK.
Spending on schools in Northern Ireland has also fallen behind typical UK spending. At £565 per person, spending on secondary schools in Northern Ireland is the second lowest of any UK region except Scotland.
A key difference between Great Britain and Northern Ireland in terms of public spending is expenditure on the water supply, which in Northern Ireland is nearly seven times higher than the UK average. This is because, uniquely in the UK, Northern Ireland doesn’t have water charges.
As a result of this, the water supply and sewerage system is severely underfunded and stretched beyond capacity. In many areas of Northern Ireland NI Water is not accepting new connections to the public sewerage network. This is both acting as a brake on economic growth and posing further risks to the environment.
Introducing water charges in Northern Ireland could raise revenues of approximately £350m per year, or £186 per person per year. This would pay for the £2 billion which will be needed to address deficiencies in the water and sewerage network, and could release £200m per year to be spent on other priorities.
One such priority could be a reduction in business rates. Relative to earnings, business rates in Northern Ireland are by far the most expensive in the UK. In Northern Ireland, revenues from non-domestic rates are virtually at the same level as revenues from corporation taxes. In England, revenues from rates are less than half (49%) of corporation tax revenues.
Reducing non-domestic rates by 25% would bring rates into line with how much they cost relative to income with Scotland, where non-domestic rates raise 76% of the sum raised from corporation tax. This would cost around £213m, and if offset by newly introduced water charges raising £56m would have a net cost of £157m, or £113 per person per year. Reducing the rates burden, in particular on small businesses, would be expected to create a significant number of jobs.
Demand for scarce public resources in Northern Ireland is likely to increase ever further over the next few years. However, the crisis in the health system, a poor record on environmental protection, creaking infrastructure and exorbitant taxes on small businesses are all serious issues which will require concerted effort by the Northern Ireland Executive if they are to be addressed.


sluggerotoole--2020-03-06--#NIElectionSurvey #2: On issue based politics young NI is converging, not polarising

In part two of this series on Liverpool University ’ s election survey I ’ ll look at some of the data on social issues .
As the report itself notes that they were not simply looking at the attitudes of those who were planning to vote but those who have stopped voting .
This is a group that the parties ( and certainly the public commentariat ) generally choose to discount because they feel they can not coax them to the polls their views don ’ t matter .
However , they are likely to feature much more heavily @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 1998 Northern Ireland Belfast Agreement referendum achieved a turnout of 81.1 % of the electorate whilst the following Assembly election came to just 69.8 % shortly afterward .
But I intend to come to that section of the survey in another post .
What ’ s most fascinating is how it digs beneath the usual sectarian tropes to find surprising nuggets particularly in the social data .
For instance , it is clear that beyond a hardcore vote there is no longer any significant resistance to abortion reform .
Some 72.1 % of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ an abortion in at least some circumstances and some 17.5 % did not know what they thought about the matter .
There is only a tiny proportion of the population now in favour of the status quo .
The report also notes how the view of young Catholics and Protestants are converging on a range of social and intercommunity issues , and how this shift has largely been ignored at least by the main and to some extent the wider commentariat .
For instance , only Sinn Fein supporters were in a ( @ @ @ @ @ @ @ preferred their kids to go to ‘ an own ’ religion school .
This is way out of line with younger voters ( 18-44 ) , of which 18.6 % of Catholics and 14.8 % of Protestants agreed .
61.7 % of those in the whole survey said they would not mind if a close relative was to marry someone from a different religion .
That figure shoots right up amongst non-voters .
And in the younger cohort , it is 83.7 % of Protestants and 69 % of Catholics .
It ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ though .
Nearly a quarter 23 % of all the 19-23 year-olds say they are living with or married to someone from another or no religion suggesting that things are moving apace despite the stuck nature of NI ’ s political game .
Interestingly , same-sex marriage makes a majority , but only just .
51.4 % agreed it was right to make same-sex marriage legal in Northern Ireland .
Again , the most support comes from young Protestant nonvoters , with 73.7 % agreeing and 62.7 % Catholics .
As for supporters @ @ @ @ @ @ @ % of Sinn Fein voters approved , whilst a hefty ( for the only party still opposing it ) 42.6 % of DUP voters were supportive of same-sex marriage .
The SDLP ( 17.2 % ) and Alliance ( 17 % ) had the lowest % of objectors .
On the other side of the ledger , few ( 23.3 % ) in Northern Ireland particularly agree with the idea that immigration is good for the NI economy .
Of those who disagreed there was no discernable difference ( both 46 % ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ most important issues at the time were Brexit ( 23.4 % ) and the NHS ( 23 % ) .
Next came RHI ( 9.1 % ) .
Irish unity came in at 3.1 % , just above immigration ( 3 % ) .
When we isolate social issues from culture question , young NI is rapidly converging .
To the extent that our politics has remained polarised ( not particularly helped by a media that seems to leap gleefully into any scoilt or split along the old lines of conflict rather than @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA

In part two of this series on Liverpool University’s election survey I’ll look at some of the data on social issues. As the report itself notes that they were not simply looking at the attitudes of those who were planning to vote but those who have stopped voting.
This is a group that the parties (and certainly the public commentariat) generally choose to discount because they feel they cannot coax them to the polls their views don’t matter. However, they are likely to feature much more heavily in any future border poll.
The 1998 Northern Ireland Belfast Agreement referendum achieved a turnout of 81.1% of the electorate whilst the following Assembly election came to just 69.8% shortly afterward. But I intend to come to that section of the survey in another post.
What’s most fascinating is how it digs beneath the usual sectarian tropes to find surprising nuggets particularly in the social data. For instance, it is clear that beyond a hardcore vote there is no longer any significant resistance to abortion reform.
Some 72.1% of those who answered supported the right to an abortion in at least some circumstances and some 17.5% did not know what they thought about the matter. There is only a tiny proportion of the population now in favour of the status quo.
The report also notes how the view of young Catholics and Protestants are converging on a range of social and intercommunity issues, and how this shift has largely been ignored at least by the main and to some extent the wider commentariat.
For instance, only Sinn Fein supporters were in a (bare) majority in saying that they preferred their kids to go to ‘an own’ religion school. This is way out of line with younger voters (18-44), of which 18.6% of Catholics and 14.8% of Protestants agreed.
61.7% of those in the whole survey said they would not mind if a close relative was to marry someone from a different religion. That figure shoots right up amongst non-voters. And in the younger cohort, it is 83.7% of Protestants and 69% of Catholics.
It’s not just a matter of preference though. Nearly a quarter 23% of all the 19-23 year-olds say they are living with or married to someone from another or no religion suggesting that things are moving apace despite the stuck nature of NI’s political game.
Interestingly, same-sex marriage makes a majority, but only just. 51.4% agreed it was right to make same-sex marriage legal in Northern Ireland. Again, the most support comes from young Protestant nonvoters, with 73.7% agreeing and 62.7% Catholics.
As for supporters of the two main parties, 51.6% of Sinn Fein voters approved, whilst a hefty (for the only party still opposing it) 42.6% of DUP voters were supportive of same-sex marriage. The SDLP (17.2%) and Alliance (17%) had the lowest % of objectors.
On the other side of the ledger, few (23.3%) in Northern Ireland particularly agree with the idea that immigration is good for the NI economy. Of those who disagreed there was no discernable difference (both 46%) between the two religious groups.
The most important issues at the time were Brexit (23.4%) and the NHS (23%). Next came RHI (9.1%). Irish unity came in at 3.1%, just above immigration (3%). When we isolate social issues from culture question, young NI is rapidly converging.
To the extent that our politics has remained polarised (not particularly helped by a media that seems to leap gleefully into any scoilt or split along the old lines of conflict rather than the new lines.
Photo by PDPics is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA