sluggerotoole--2020-09-12--Unionism: so what’s the plan ?

Unionism: so what’s the plan ?

The BBC reports this evening the following remarks from DUP North Antrim MP , Ian Paisley : Northern Ireland will not be used as a pawn – we opposed the withdrawal agreement , we warned about this protocol , we said it would damage the integrity .
“ I am glad , maybe at the last minute , the PM has wakened up to the serious threat that this poses to the union , ” he said .
“ If the prime minister has the mettle to finish the job I welcome that but we will find out this Wednesday @ @ @ @ @ @ @ if he is not prepared to stand up to Europe , as the people of NI do not deserve to be treated differently to people in the rest of the UK , ” he added .
There is a general pattern of favourable comments coming from Unionist politicians concerning Johnson ’ s plan to tear up the agreement he signed , fought an election on , and pushed through Parliament .
Edwin Poots suggested that Johnson ’ s bill means that work on port controls could be halted .
Sammy Wilson also offered @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the announcement of the new bill .
Arlene Foster has been rather more circumspect , a contrast which has led to some speculation about a behind-closed-doors power struggle within the DUP .
A couple of things are fascinating to me here .
The first is that Unionist politicians , particularly in the DUP , seem to think that the UK Prime Minister is going to act to support their interests , despite being shafted twice in a row by both Theresa May and Boris Johnson , and in the context where Johnson is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has his own signature on it .
But the second thing is more serious , and is emblematic of Unionism ’ s age old problem – not being able to see the wood for the trees .
What is the strategy here ; exactly do they think is going to happen next ?
What happens if they get their way ?
The horse that Unionism is backing here is a no-deal horse , the inevitable conclusion of the UK repudiating its own agreement .
No deal may mean no border in the Irish @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , among many other things , a border within Ireland .
The problem with this is not security ( a security threat can be met with a security response , provided people are prepared to pay the cost ) but the fact that most people and businesses in Northern Ireland are against it , which has implications for the union by itself which I will discuss further below .
Secondly , Ian Paisley is wrong to say that the withdrawal agreement is a threat to the union .
In fact , the opposite @ @ @ @ @ @ @ now live in where Unionist political parties are holed below 43 % of the vote , the threat to the union comes from swing voters , most of them from “ nationalist ” backgrounds , most of the being pro-EU and most of them having no particular problem with either the union or Irish reunification , who are dissatisfied with nationalism and nationalist political parties .
For these voters , the Withdrawal Agreement dulls the sharp edges of brexit just enough to keep them voting Alliance or Green .
Taking the Withdrawal Agreement @ @ @ @ @ @ @ imposing a bunch of food shortages and delays is a pretty good way to stir these voters into an angry reaction .
I can not claim to speak for all Alliance or Green voters – far from it .
But I know that I don ’ t want a border poll and I ’ m quite happy for reunification to stay on the shelf gathering dust ( and I suspect there are a good many people in the south , not least in Leinster House , who privately feel the same way ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
This is not because I am pro-British , or anti-reunification , but because I want us to sort out our other problems first before we take on new ones .
This is particularly true in the middle of brexit , COVID , and the disquieting state of the world ’ s major military powers .
I don ’ t accept that reunification will solve them .
The Withdrawal Agreement offered the opportunity to maintain the status quo for the time being and create the needed space to continue working on all of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this argument by it taking away the means to sustain the status quo and ( re ) introducing a range of new problems .
For many of us in the centre ground it will cause the question of reunification to be taken down from the shelf , dusted off and be given a second look .
This does not strike me as being in Unionism ’ s interest .
I ’ ve long since given up on trying to understand the collective psychology of Unionism over the past century , watching as it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it is perched .
I can ’ t get over the way it , as a self-defined guardian of British culture and values , would align itself so enthusiastically with those who have no regard for decency , fair play , honouring agreements and your good name , and respecting the rulebook .
Unionism has the disposition of a gambler staking his last coin .
At not one , but several key critical stages , it chose not to spend its political capital on pushing the UK towards a path which would have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and instead chose to bet the house on a silly far-right pipedream .
It , and it alone , is culpable in whatever happens next .

The BBC reports this evening the following remarks from DUP North Antrim MP, Ian Paisley:
Northern Ireland will not be used as a pawn – we opposed the withdrawal agreement, we warned about this protocol, we said it would damage the integrity. “I am glad, maybe at the last minute, the PM has wakened up to the serious threat that this poses to the union,” he said. “If the prime minister has the mettle to finish the job I welcome that but we will find out this Wednesday if he has a tinfoil spine and if he is not prepared to stand up to Europe, as the people of NI do not deserve to be treated differently to people in the rest of the UK,” he added.
There is a general pattern of favourable comments coming from Unionist politicians concerning Johnson’s plan to tear up the agreement he signed, fought an election on, and pushed through Parliament. Edwin Poots suggested that Johnson’s bill means that work on port controls could be halted. Sammy Wilson also offered characteristically belligerent rhetoric on the eve of the announcement of the new bill. Arlene Foster has been rather more circumspect, a contrast which has led to some speculation about a behind-closed-doors power struggle within the DUP.
A couple of things are fascinating to me here. The first is that Unionist politicians, particularly in the DUP, seem to think that the UK Prime Minister is going to act to support their interests, despite being shafted twice in a row by both Theresa May and Boris Johnson, and in the context where Johnson is publicly threatening to repudiate a deal that has his own signature on it.
But the second thing is more serious, and is emblematic of Unionism’s age old problem – not being able to see the wood for the trees. What is the strategy here; exactly do they think is going to happen next ? What happens if they get their way ?
The horse that Unionism is backing here is a no-deal horse, the inevitable conclusion of the UK repudiating its own agreement. No deal may mean no border in the Irish sea; but it will also mean, among many other things, a border within Ireland. The problem with this is not security (a security threat can be met with a security response, provided people are prepared to pay the cost) but the fact that most people and businesses in Northern Ireland are against it, which has implications for the union by itself which I will discuss further below.
Secondly, Ian Paisley is wrong to say that the withdrawal agreement is a threat to the union. In fact, the opposite is true. In the world we now live in where Unionist political parties are holed below 43% of the vote, the threat to the union comes from swing voters, most of them from “nationalist” backgrounds, most of the being pro-EU and most of them having no particular problem with either the union or Irish reunification, who are dissatisfied with nationalism and nationalist political parties. For these voters, the Withdrawal Agreement dulls the sharp edges of brexit just enough to keep them voting Alliance or Green. Taking the Withdrawal Agreement away, installing a hard border and imposing a bunch of food shortages and delays is a pretty good way to stir these voters into an angry reaction.
I cannot claim to speak for all Alliance or Green voters – far from it. But I know that I don’t want a border poll and I’m quite happy for reunification to stay on the shelf gathering dust (and I suspect there are a good many people in the south, not least in Leinster House, who privately feel the same way) provided some sort of sanity is prevailing. This is not because I am pro-British, or anti-reunification, but because I want us to sort out our other problems first before we take on new ones, and I don’t accept that reunification will automatically solve them. This is particularly true in the middle of brexit, COVID, and the disquieting state of the world’s major military powers. The Withdrawal Agreement offered the opportunity to maintain the status quo for the time being and create the needed space to continue working on all of this.
Removing the Withdrawal Agreement nullifies this argument by it taking away the means to sustain the status quo and (re)introducing a range of new problems. For many of us in the centre ground it will cause the question of reunification to be taken down from the shelf, dusted off and be given a second look. This does not strike me as being in Unionism’s interest.
I’ve long since given up on trying to understand the collective psychology of Unionism over the past century, watching as it repeatedly saws off the branches upon which it is perched. I can’t get over the way it, as a self-defined guardian of British culture and values, would align itself so enthusiastically with those who have no regard for decency, fair play, honouring agreements and your good name, and respecting the rulebook.
Unionism has the disposition of a gambler staking his last coin. At not one, but several key critical stages, it chose not to spend its political capital on pushing the UK towards a path which would have avoided distancing Northern Ireland from the union, and instead chose to bet the house on a silly far-right pipedream. It, and it alone, is culpable in whatever happens next.


sluggerotoole--2020-09-13--Some thoughts on leadership within Unionism…

When talking about Unionism in Northern Ireland , one of the most frequent issues brought up is leadership .
Looking at Sinn Fein , the SDLP , and Alliance , there is an abundance of effective leadership on display with more in reserve if the need arises .
Unionism , by contrast , is not experiencing similar fortunes , and this has become an issue .
Never before has leadership within Unionism been so problematic , especially during a time that could eventually define Northern Ireland .
With a massive appetite for change within Unionist electorate , a resolution to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , easy , or immediate .
The leadership problem has been an ongoing Achilles ’ heel that Unionism has had to ensure in recent times ; however , tackling it incorrectly could turn and Achilles ’ heel into an amputation .
When the RHI issues came to light , Arlene Foster was severely damaged by the revelations , and from that moment onwards her position became untenable .
With no natural successor , Ms Foster triumphantly lead the DUP through the 2017 Westminster elections and into a “ Confidence & Supply ” arrangement @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Withdrawal Agreement that has undermined the Union between Northern Ireland and Great Britain .
The 2019 Westminster elections seen the DUP hammered across all constituencies accumulating in the loss of two seats with several others left vulnerable .
A post-election washup never occurred within Unionism ; this was in part due to the global pandemic ; however , the need for a change in leadership has remained .
Despite almost exemplary handling of the pandemic by Ms Foster where she had shown good judgement , pragmatism , and even the ability to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ guidelines , huge problems remain , and she is destined to be overshadowed by what went before during her tenure .
Arlene Foster ’ s problems are not limited to the distant past , recently Ms Foster approved the “ Executive Committee ( Functions ) Bill ” which allows Ministers to act with greater autonomy and reduces Executive scrutiny , ( the DUP were keen to address individual departmental freedom via the St. Andrew ’ s agreement ) .
This resulted in highly respected ex DUP special advisor Richard Bullick speaking out , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ backbench rebellion with 11 party members abstaining from the vote within the Executive .
There have been mutterings within Unionism that history was repeating itself with the finer points of the bill being misunderstood by the DUP leadership .
One of the most open problems within the DUP has been the complete breakdown in discipline .
Sammy Wilson has gone on innumerable solo runs against his leader and the UUP Health Minster ( whom the DUP vowed to give political cover to ) opposing lockdown and face “ muzzles ” .
Many of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ could be interpreted as trolling , which is not a good look for an MP .
In addition to this Ian Paisley in an interview with Mark Carruthers openly criticised the lockdown in Ballymena that Arlene Foster announced .
It has been suggested both Sammy and Ian have been testing the waters for a leadership challenge , however , against the backdrop of a public health crisis these interventions from the Westminster team have not been widely welcomed by the general public .
To compound matters there are the complex challenges facing Northern @ @ @ @ @ @ @ calls for a border poll .
None of these elements are in any way being addressed by political Unionism .
It ’ s difficult to imagine a time when Unionism has been as rudderless and ineffective as it currently is .
The Withdrawal Agreement which creates a border in the Irish sea has not been altered in a positive way for Northern Ireland despite recent manoeuvres from number 10 .
Unionism has found itself isolated here as Sinn Fein , SDLP , Greens , Alliance , and even the outside countries have all @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and preferring instead for the sea border .
Unionism has again fallen for the fallacy that the Tories will act in Northern Ireland ’ s interest by overriding the WA .
Unionism should not view Boris Johnson ’ s intervention as an attempt to protect Northern Ireland and the Union , but in reality , it ’ s more likely to be a ploy to strengthen the UK ’ s hand in the negotiations with the EU .
For some within Unionism to again fall for Tory bluster is greatly frustrating .
Generally @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the motions and drifting from one crisis to another and generally reacting incorrectly to each crisis .
It ’ s difficult to ignore on the flip side the momentum growing within Nationalism for all types of “ New Irelands ” and with each pressing day , the calls for a border poll become louder .
If Unionism continues to lack direction , continually fails to sell the Union , and fails to offer a better vision for Northern Ireland – referendum calls will only get louder .
Many within Unionism will be quietly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ potential referendum on unity as a bargaining chip in the future .
The lack of an obvious replacement is why Arlene Foster remains as leader ; the natural successor was likely to have been Simon Hamilton who resigned from politics .
The DUP also appears to be suffering from shellshock following the loss of Nigel Dodd ’ s in North Belfast , someone who would surely have been the leader if he retained his seat .
So what options are available to the DUP ?
Sammy Wilson – a popular character within the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on the ground of getting things done .
Sammy is also being mentioned within certain circles as the “ preferred ” choice .
However , Sammy would be a problematic leader , his reactionary style of politics will not broaden Unionism ’ s appeal and in fact , will likely put many people off .
Too often , Sammy has found himself on the wrong side of the argument and has failed to see the bigger picture .
I also don ’ t believe he offers the vision or strategic prowess needed to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ leadership could be detrimental to the DUP and Unionism .
Sammy , at times , wants to be the “ cheeky chappie ” character rather than a serious political leader , it ’ s ludicrous that with his solo runs he continues to hold the whip within the Westminster team .
Ian Paisley – the Paisley name still carries significant weight within Unionism , particularly in North Antrim , but it would be foolish to overlook a series of scandals that have dogged his career .
Ian Paisley will be considered fortunate by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ politics , a promotion to leader would not be well received by the electorate .
Jeffrey Donaldson , probably one of the more serious contenders at present , however , the DUP will be hugely reluctant to appoint another ex UUP member as the leader .
Furthermore , Jeffrey has had a few interviews recently where he has struggled and it is clear that as leader of the Westminster team , he has lost control which is not a good omen for taking on full party leadership .
It ’ s also unclear @ @ @ @ @ @ @ any and at best he may offer a safer pair of hands but this is not guaranteed .
Gavin Robinson – one of the outsiders and someone who is probably too inexperienced .
However , despite making several errors he has generally used good judgement and will be one of the few DUP candidates with a clean slate .
Holding off Naomi Long in East Belfast shows that he is a candidate who should not be taken lightly .
However , it ’ s unclear if he has the leadership skills required and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from the shadows ?
Possibly one for the future if he develops more within his current remit .
Edwin Poots – a DUP stalwart who will satisfy traditional grassroots members , however , outside of the DUP he will not be seen as a candidate that can sell the Union with a positive vision for the future .
A dream team ticket of “ Donaldson and Poots ” has been mentioned , but this would result in Edwin Poots as First Minister and realistically that could drive voters to non-Unionist parties .
Pam @ @ @ @ @ @ @ candidate that is relatively free from many of the issues that engulf other members , she is also respected inside and outside of the party .
However , Pam is a little-known entity who may not be ready for the step-up to leadership , and like Gavin Robinson , the party may wish to nurture such a candidate for the future .
Paul Givan – certainly a capable member who will be well respected within the party and a good public speaker .
On the downside , his more fundamental views and open @ @ @ @ @ @ @ contradictory and off-putting to a wider audience .
Leadership ability is unknown and outward appeal could again be problematic .
Paula Bradley – like Pam Cameron a little bit of an unknown entity which can be both a positive a negative .
Well respected with some appeal outside of the DUP ’ s traditional base – the DUP could do worse than to start developing Paula to challenge John Finucane in any future Westminster battle .
Probably the wrong time for a leadership challenge .
Christopher Stalford , for me the most serious @ @ @ @ @ @ @ discussed , more popular than most within the DUP although not without his critics .
Has the ability to understand the bigger picture but being relatively new to the Assembly he still needs to develop as a potential leader , Chris also has youth on his side and he could be a leader further down the line .
Gordon Lyons – a solid candidate but as of yet too untested and like a number of other DUP party members he is someone whom the party could develop into a more frontline figure in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to envisage as a leader , being co-opted into the Assembly and then into a Ministerial position was quite controversial .
Unlikely to be considered as a contender .
Better the Devil you Know Whilst there is a huge appetite for leadership change within Unionism , the natural successor to Arlene Foster is not apparent .
Each of the candidates have their pros and cons , but some could actually damage the Unionist brand further and potentially turn many people off the Union .
This is a critical time for Unionism and Northern @ @ @ @ @ @ @ least Brexit .
Furthermore , a new leader would oversee the Northern Ireland centenary events and could lead Unionism through a Unity referendum , the wrong candidate of which there are several would be catastrophic .
It ’ s critical Arlene Foster remains in the post for now and helps towards ensuring a smooth transition of power .
The change of power should be slow , thoughtful , and purposeful with an eye firmly on the future ; however , the process needs to begin and it needs to be seen to have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ case that the next leader resides outside of the current Westminster and Assembly teams .
To paraphrase the DUP in recent times , “ No leader is better than the wrong leader ” .
The DUP and Unionism in general need to start thinking long-term and what they envisage for the current and future Northern Ireland ?
Putting a plan in place to develop the next generation of leaders who can deliver this vision is crucial .
It was foolhardy to have Simon Hamilton as Arlene Foster ’ s successor and when Simon @ @ @ @ @ @ @ B in place .
Lacking a credible plan is a problem we have seen replicated across many spectrums within Unionism and it has contributed to many of the current problems .
In addition to putting plans in place to develop new leaders , the party needs to restore internal discipline , beginning at Westminster .
The DUP accumulate a large number of votes due to being seen as strong on the Union and disciplined .
Remembering back to the UUP during the Good Friday Agreement years and their lack of discipline , this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and subsequently votes , the electorate is now starting to see these traits in the DUP .
It is also more prudent for a party that has the word “ democratic ” in its name to have a leadership election rather than a coronation – this is also good for encouraging competition and interest .
The DUP is still suffering from losing some significant talent , including Simon Hamilton , Richard Bullick , and Alastair Ross , these individuals have never been replaced .
The political beheading of Nigel Dodds has only compounded @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
This is another aspect that the DUP needs to focus on – recruiting and retaining talent .
On the topic of Nigel Dodds , he is the current deputy leader , he will need to become more public-facing again if this is to continue .
Counter this against the other deputy leaders such as Michelle O ’ Neill , Stephen Farry , and Nichola Mallon who are all well-known figures and very visible when representing their parties .
The DUP also needs to look at some of the talents that exist within @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that these candidates are earmarked for winnable seats at the next Assembly election .
The DUP does not just need a change in leadership but it needs a change in personnel right across the party including the Westminster team .
It ’ s ironic that the natural leader for Unionism resides within the UUP in Doug Beattie , something I have commented on before .
It is equally ironic that the complete decline of the UUP is starting to hurt the DUP .
Unionism as a whole needs an effective and plausible second @ @ @ @ @ @ @ like the DUP , the UUP has many good members , it is not a movement that many are seeing as the natural alternative to the DUP – this needs to be addressed !
It ’ s critical that if the DUP wants to continue leading Unionism it must encompass more long-term , strategic thinking and this needs to begin with the leadership transition .
Lacking effective leadership has become an Achilles ’ heel for Unionism in recent years and it ’ s a problem that will have to be endured for the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of leader of Unionism is not an easy task , with an audience that will generally be sceptical and indeed cynical of change , there is an onus on us within Unionism to encourage and support new thinking that is properly explained in practical and strategic terms .
These are critical times , with the political situation fluid and generally , out of Unionism ’ s hands , it ’ s imperative that Unionism begins to seriously get its house in order .
Too Unionism is lampooned due to individuals making poor decisions @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for a reaction more than due to ideological reasons .
The next leader of Unionism could be leading Unionism through a unity referendum , the wrong leader in place would be catastrophic , and with a huge “ other ” demographic that could in theory swing either way , the wrong leader could sway this base in ways that the IRA via their campaigns could never have hoped for .

When talking about Unionism in Northern Ireland, one of the most frequent issues brought up is leadership. Looking at Sinn Fein, the SDLP, and Alliance, there is an abundance of effective leadership on display with more in reserve if the need arises. Unionism, by contrast, is not experiencing similar fortunes, and this has become an issue. Never before has leadership within Unionism been so problematic, especially during a time that could eventually define Northern Ireland. With a massive appetite for change within Unionist electorate, a resolution to the leadership problem does not appear obvious, easy, or immediate. The leadership problem has been an ongoing Achilles’ heel that Unionism has had to ensure in recent times; however, tackling it incorrectly could turn and Achilles’ heel into an amputation.
Background
When the RHI issues came to light, Arlene Foster was severely damaged by the revelations, and from that moment onwards her position became untenable. With no natural successor, Ms Foster triumphantly lead the DUP through the 2017 Westminster elections and into a “Confidence & Supply” arrangement with the Conservatives, this resulted in the Withdrawal Agreement that has undermined the Union between Northern Ireland and Great Britain. The 2019 Westminster elections seen the DUP hammered across all constituencies accumulating in the loss of two seats with several others left vulnerable. A post-election washup never occurred within Unionism; this was in part due to the global pandemic; however, the need for a change in leadership has remained. Despite almost exemplary handling of the pandemic by Ms Foster where she had shown good judgement, pragmatism, and even the ability to isolate Sinn Fein when they grossly breached guidelines, huge problems remain, and she is destined to be overshadowed by what went before during her tenure.
Current Problems
Arlene Foster’s problems are not limited to the distant past, recently Ms Foster approved the “Executive Committee (Functions) Bill” which allows Ministers to act with greater autonomy and reduces Executive scrutiny, (the DUP were keen to address individual departmental freedom via the St. Andrew’s agreement). This resulted in highly respected ex DUP special advisor Richard Bullick speaking out, and it also caused a mini DUP backbench rebellion with 11 party members abstaining from the vote within the Executive. There have been mutterings within Unionism that history was repeating itself with the finer points of the bill being misunderstood by the DUP leadership.
One of the most open problems within the DUP has been the complete breakdown in discipline. Sammy Wilson has gone on innumerable solo runs against his leader and the UUP Health Minster (whom the DUP vowed to give political cover to) opposing lockdown and face “muzzles”. Many of Sammy Wilson’s social media campaigns could be interpreted as trolling, which is not a good look for an MP. In addition to this Ian Paisley in an interview with Mark Carruthers openly criticised the lockdown in Ballymena that Arlene Foster announced. It has been suggested both Sammy and Ian have been testing the waters for a leadership challenge, however, against the backdrop of a public health crisis these interventions from the Westminster team have not been widely welcomed by the general public.
To compound matters there are the complex challenges facing Northern Ireland, the Withdrawal Agreement and ever-growing calls for a border poll. None of these elements are in any way being addressed by political Unionism.
Unionism Adrift
It’s difficult to imagine a time when Unionism has been as rudderless and ineffective as it currently is. The Withdrawal Agreement which creates a border in the Irish sea has not been altered in a positive way for Northern Ireland despite recent manoeuvres from number 10. Unionism has found itself isolated here as Sinn Fein, SDLP, Greens, Alliance, and even the outside countries have all backed avoiding a hard border in Ireland and preferring instead for the sea border. Unionism has again fallen for the fallacy that the Tories will act in Northern Ireland’s interest by overriding the WA. Unionism should not view Boris Johnson’s intervention as an attempt to protect Northern Ireland and the Union, but in reality, it’s more likely to be a ploy to strengthen the UK’s hand in the negotiations with the EU. For some within Unionism to again fall for Tory bluster is greatly frustrating. Generally, Unionism appears to be going through the motions and drifting from one crisis to another and generally reacting incorrectly to each crisis. It’s difficult to ignore on the flip side the momentum growing within Nationalism for all types of “New Irelands” and with each pressing day, the calls for a border poll become louder. If Unionism continues to lack direction, continually fails to sell the Union, and fails to offer a better vision for Northern Ireland – referendum calls will only get louder. Many within Unionism will be quietly concerned that the Tories could use a potential referendum on unity as a bargaining chip in the future.
The Leadership Runners and Riders
The lack of an obvious replacement is why Arlene Foster remains as leader; the natural successor was likely to have been Simon Hamilton who resigned from politics. The DUP also appears to be suffering from shellshock following the loss of Nigel Dodd’s in North Belfast, someone who would surely have been the leader if he retained his seat. So what options are available to the DUP?
Sammy Wilson – a popular character within the DUP, vastly experienced with a record on the ground of getting things done. Sammy is also being mentioned within certain circles as the “preferred” choice. However, Sammy would be a problematic leader, his reactionary style of politics will not broaden Unionism’s appeal and in fact, will likely put many people off. Too often, Sammy has found himself on the wrong side of the argument and has failed to see the bigger picture. I also don’t believe he offers the vision or strategic prowess needed to move Unionism forward and his elevation to leadership could be detrimental to the DUP and Unionism. Sammy, at times, wants to be the “cheeky chappie” character rather than a serious political leader, it’s ludicrous that with his solo runs he continues to hold the whip within the Westminster team.
Ian Paisley – the Paisley name still carries significant weight within Unionism, particularly in North Antrim, but it would be foolish to overlook a series of scandals that have dogged his career. Ian Paisley will be considered fortunate by many to be still involved in frontline politics, a promotion to leader would not be well received by the electorate.
Jeffrey Donaldson, probably one of the more serious contenders at present, however, the DUP will be hugely reluctant to appoint another ex UUP member as the leader. Furthermore, Jeffrey has had a few interviews recently where he has struggled and it is clear that as leader of the Westminster team, he has lost control which is not a good omen for taking on full party leadership. It’s also unclear what changes Jeffrey Donaldson would bring if any and at best he may offer a safer pair of hands but this is not guaranteed.
Gavin Robinson – one of the outsiders and someone who is probably too inexperienced. However, despite making several errors he has generally used good judgement and will be one of the few DUP candidates with a clean slate. Holding off Naomi Long in East Belfast shows that he is a candidate who should not be taken lightly. However, it’s unclear if he has the leadership skills required and if he is willing to step out from the shadows? Possibly one for the future if he develops more within his current remit.
Edwin Poots – a DUP stalwart who will satisfy traditional grassroots members, however, outside of the DUP he will not be seen as a candidate that can sell the Union with a positive vision for the future. A dream team ticket of “Donaldson and Poots” has been mentioned, but this would result in Edwin Poots as First Minister and realistically that could drive voters to non-Unionist parties.
Pam Cameron – a dark horse but a candidate that is relatively free from many of the issues that engulf other members, she is also respected inside and outside of the party. However, Pam is a little-known entity who may not be ready for the step-up to leadership, and like Gavin Robinson, the party may wish to nurture such a candidate for the future.
Paul Givan – certainly a capable member who will be well respected within the party and a good public speaker. On the downside, his more fundamental views and open support for the Trump administration can be contradictory and off-putting to a wider audience. Leadership ability is unknown and outward appeal could again be problematic.
Paula Bradley – like Pam Cameron a little bit of an unknown entity which can be both a positive a negative. Well respected with some appeal outside of the DUP’s traditional base – the DUP could do worse than to start developing Paula to challenge John Finucane in any future Westminster battle. Probably the wrong time for a leadership challenge.
Christopher Stalford, for me the most serious candidate within the Executive and the least discussed, more popular than most within the DUP although not without his critics. Has the ability to understand the bigger picture but being relatively new to the Assembly he still needs to develop as a potential leader, Chris also has youth on his side and he could be a leader further down the line.
Gordon Lyons – a solid candidate but as of yet too untested and like a number of other DUP party members he is someone whom the party could develop into a more frontline figure in the future.
Diane Dodds – difficult to envisage as a leader, being co-opted into the Assembly and then into a Ministerial position was quite controversial. Unlikely to be considered as a contender.
Better the Devil you Know
Whilst there is a huge appetite for leadership change within Unionism, the natural successor to Arlene Foster is not apparent. Each of the candidates have their pros and cons, but some could actually damage the Unionist brand further and potentially turn many people off the Union. This is a critical time for Unionism and Northern Ireland with a raft of problems not least Brexit. Furthermore, a new leader would oversee the Northern Ireland centenary events and could lead Unionism through a Unity referendum, the wrong candidate of which there are several would be catastrophic. It’s critical Arlene Foster remains in the post for now and helps towards ensuring a smooth transition of power. The change of power should be slow, thoughtful, and purposeful with an eye firmly on the future; however, the process needs to begin and it needs to be seen to have begun. It may even be the case that the next leader resides outside of the current Westminster and Assembly teams. To paraphrase the DUP in recent times, “No leader is better than the wrong leader”.
What Next?
The DUP and Unionism in general need to start thinking long-term and what they envisage for the current and future Northern Ireland? Putting a plan in place to develop the next generation of leaders who can deliver this vision is crucial. It was foolhardy to have Simon Hamilton as Arlene Foster’s successor and when Simon left the party there was no plan B in place. Lacking a credible plan is a problem we have seen replicated across many spectrums within Unionism and it has contributed to many of the current problems. In addition to putting plans in place to develop new leaders, the party needs to restore internal discipline, beginning at Westminster. The DUP accumulate a large number of votes due to being seen as strong on the Union and disciplined. Remembering back to the UUP during the Good Friday Agreement years and their lack of discipline, this resulted in a loss of voter confidence and subsequently votes, the electorate is now starting to see these traits in the DUP. It is also more prudent for a party that has the word “democratic” in its name to have a leadership election rather than a coronation – this is also good for encouraging competition and interest.
The DUP is still suffering from losing some significant talent, including Simon Hamilton, Richard Bullick, and Alastair Ross, these individuals have never been replaced. The political beheading of Nigel Dodds has only compounded the shortage of talent within DUP ranks. This is another aspect that the DUP needs to focus on – recruiting and retaining talent. On the topic of Nigel Dodds, he is the current deputy leader, he will need to become more public-facing again if this is to continue. Counter this against the other deputy leaders such as Michelle O’Neill, Stephen Farry, and Nichola Mallon who are all well-known figures and very visible when representing their parties.
The DUP also needs to look at some of the talents that exist within its council ranks across Northern Ireland so that these candidates are earmarked for winnable seats at the next Assembly election. The DUP does not just need a change in leadership but it needs a change in personnel right across the party including the Westminster team.
It’s ironic that the natural leader for Unionism resides within the UUP in Doug Beattie, something I have commented on before. It is equally ironic that the complete decline of the UUP is starting to hurt the DUP. Unionism as a whole needs an effective and plausible second party as this helps competition and whilst like the DUP, the UUP has many good members, it is not a movement that many are seeing as the natural alternative to the DUP – this needs to be addressed!
Final Analysis
It’s critical that if the DUP wants to continue leading Unionism it must encompass more long-term, strategic thinking and this needs to begin with the leadership transition. Lacking effective leadership has become an Achilles’ heel for Unionism in recent years and it’s a problem that will have to be endured for the foreseeable future. Taking on the role of leader of Unionism is not an easy task, with an audience that will generally be sceptical and indeed cynical of change, there is an onus on us within Unionism to encourage and support new thinking that is properly explained in practical and strategic terms. These are critical times, with the political situation fluid and generally, out of Unionism’s hands, it’s imperative that Unionism begins to seriously get its house in order. Too Unionism is lampooned due to individuals making poor decisions or adopting a reactionary position, sometimes for a reaction more than due to ideological reasons. The next leader of Unionism could be leading Unionism through a unity referendum, the wrong leader in place would be catastrophic, and with a huge “other” demographic that could in theory swing either way, the wrong leader could sway this base in ways that the IRA via their campaigns could never have hoped for.


sluggerotoole--2020-09-14--This is the very moment to speak out against the old Wolfe Tone trope, that Britain is the source of

This is the very moment to speak out against the old Wolfe Tone trope, that Britain is the source of all Irish ills

As is only to be expected , Chris Donnelly in the Irish News plays the full anti imperialist card against the UK , without regard to variations of interpretation .
He uses a French quotation approvingly as if the French were purely the idealists of the Rights of Man and that the revolution had no downside such as the ruinous attempt to conquer all Europe and the French Empire never existed .
All major states were born in a state of nature , where life could be nasty brutish and short .
The smaller Irish nation was no exception , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Wherever possible , History is bent to serve his cause .
This is of course a great moment to talk about perfidious Albion and there are – equally of course – strong arguments for a united Ireland .
But to believe that Britain is the source of all our ills and to rely on “ perfidious Albion ” as a major argument is likely to prove self defeating among those of any stripe who recognise the richness of British culture and democratic traditions shared throughout the world and who put reconciliation first @

Demo in Place de la Républic, Paris
As is only to be expected, Chris Donnelly in the Irish News plays the full anti imperialist card against the UK, without regard to variations of interpretation. He uses a French quotation approvingly as if the French were purely the idealists of the Rights of Man and that the revolution had no downside such as the ruinous attempt to conquer all Europe and the French Empire never existed. All major states were born in a state of nature, where life could be nasty brutish and short. The smaller Irish nation was no exception, with a legacy Chris smoothly plays down. Wherever possible, History is bent to serve his cause.
This is of course a great moment to talk about perfidious Albion and there are – equally of course – strong arguments for a united Ireland. But to believe that Britain is the source of all our ills and to rely on “perfidious Albion” as a major argument is likely to prove self defeating among those of any stripe who recognise the richness of British culture and democratic traditions shared throughout the world and who put reconciliation first.


sluggerotoole--2020-09-14--#TheReset – David Gavaghan on the future of relationships on these islands in a Covid-19 world…

David Gavaghan is the founder of Aurora Prime Real Estate Ltd .
He is also a Non- Executive Director of CBI NI .
Read a profile here or follow him on Twitter… The after-effects of Covid-19 on these two islands is currently very unclear but one thing is certain , the impact of the past few months has been seismic .
There are huge adverse consequences for all parts of Britain , Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland .
The ramifications are potentially much more profound and long-lasting compared to the Global Financial Crisis , more than a decade @ @ @ @ @ @ @ worst recession in over half a century .
The current outlook for Northern Ireland ( NI ) is very challenging .
There are few obvious signs of encouragement .
Job losses are escalating at an alarming rate and many of them are occurring across the high streets of NI ’ s cities and towns .
The economy remains heavily dependent on the UK Exchequer for a significant amount of funding and it is increasingly apparent that there is little prospect of this dependency reducing .
And Belfast our capital city feels more like @ @ @ @ @ @ @ deserted city centre , our parks left to fester and to top it all too many bins choked with the debris of the worst aspects of city life .
Regardless of these issues , there is a critical need to assess our economic situation over the next twenty years .
The world outlook is fragile with countries across the globe taking on huge levels of debt .
At the same time , there is almost universally a wave of ageing populations with much higher levels of dependency .
And then there are the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ which will be the most damaging to the poorest in our world .
Nearly a decade ago Tim Harford ( FT columnist , writer , broadcaster of Radio 4 ’ s “ More or Less ” ) wrote a fantastic book “ Adapt – Why success always starts with failure ” .
There are many fascinating insights in this book .
I believe that we have reached that critical moment in terms of where we are in Northern Ireland .
It is time we transform/adapt our relationship with the Republic of Ireland to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ look out to global markets .
Instead of the win-lose approach , which for too long has been part of our national currency , we adopt a win-win strategy .
This will require a new approach to all N-S bodies fully accepting the need to ensure that E-W is also put/ kept on the same footing .
Indeed , one could argue that for N-S bodies to thrive the E-W ones are possibly more important given the importance of the British market to both jurisdictions .
In addition , there are new tensions @ @ @ @ @ @ @ still very much alive despite the adverse outcome in 2014 of its “ once in a generation ” referendum .
This may have potentially massive implications for both islands .
The most critical part of building capability between the jurisdictions in terms of an economic transformation is the corridor between Belfast and Dublin .
In February 2010 , Irish Academy of Engineering and Engineers Ireland ( both all-island bodies ) published “ Infrastructure for an island population of 8m ” by 2030 .
It anticipates “ a Belfast-Dublin Corridor with a population of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ compete with other major European urban zones ” .
Ten years later little has been done in substance to prepare for this prospect .
It is critical to wealth creation that detailed plans are now drawn up .
More than 25 years ago , one of NI ’ s most senior and highly regarded civil servants ( who then went on to be the Chair of Ulster Bank and Bombardier ) considered the importance of the corridor .
Sir George Quigley was also instrumental in persuading the Treasury to agree to a lower @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this golden goose has in all probability flown .
Suffice to say the potential of the Economic Corridor between Belfast and Dublin remains the single most important economic opportunity to face this island .
As a first step , implementing as soon as possible an hourly service would be a statement of intent .
That will however take time ( having taken a decade already ! )
.
What could be done with a will is to get a train into Dublin Connolly before 9am – the first service leaves Belfast at 6.45am @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on time .
The next is the 8am service that gets in at 10.05am .
It would be great to have a 6.30am , 7.30am and 8.30am service from Belfast into Dublin as close as possible to 8.30am , 9.30am and 10.30am .
In the afternoon , if we had a 4.30pm from Dublin and then a 5.30pm and a 6.30pm service that would be a great start .
This should happen before 2020 is out with all the necessary social distancing measures in place .
Historically , getting the slots sorted has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ took priority but now there might be a window ( every cloud has a silver lining ) .
In July 2019 , in an address at the McGill Summer School , I suggested that there is a need for much greater ambition when it comes to rail travel between the two/three principal cities on the island of Ireland – during the last Rugby World Cup in Japan the trains made a huge impact on visitors from Ireland .
The proposals by the two rail authorities of getting to a service of 90 minutes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ very long time – not specified ) just does not cut it .
45 minutes is where we need to aim .
It is important to remember that we are competing economically in a global market , just as we do in sport !
We face many risks as we look out over the next decade and beyond .
It has always surprised me how we assume that the Barnett Formula is a given .
When first implemented some fifty years ago it was meant to be a “ temporary measure .
At @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to review this “ generous arrangement ” .
Central to this potentially happening is the perception/the reality of equity .
Across England , there will be ( are ) many places that have broadly equivalent levels of deprivation and poverty to many parts of Northern Ireland , Scotland and Wales .
It is not inconceivable that each of these places will ask why they are not similarly deserving of similar levels of support – a levelling up of the playing field perhaps ?
The challenge of how this could be accommodated in a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ scarcer and scarcer is very problematic .
To quote from the closing comments of an address “ Finding your Element ” by the brilliant Sir Ken Robinson ( who sadly died last month ) , he refers to a beautiful short poem “ Risk ” by Anaïs Nin : And then the day came , when the risk to remain tight in a bud was more painful than the risk it took to blossom .
We on this part of this beautiful island have suffered the pain over too many decades of being @ @ @ @ @ @ @ We need to risk everything to blossom .
This post is part of our # TheReset series in association with Ulster Bank If you would like to get involved in # TheReset , either as an individual or as part of an organisation , please do get in touch by emailing us at [ email protected ] or [ email protected ] with an idea for inclusion in a range of articles or events over September and October .

David Gavaghan is the founder of Aurora Prime Real Estate Ltd. He is also a Non- Executive Director of CBI NI. Read a profile here or follow him on Twitter…
The after-effects of Covid-19 on these two islands is currently very unclear but one thing is certain, the impact of the past few months has been seismic. There are huge adverse consequences for all parts of Britain, Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. The ramifications are potentially much more profound and long-lasting compared to the Global Financial Crisis, more than a decade ago, which gave rise to the worst recession in over half a century.
The current outlook for Northern Ireland (NI) is very challenging. There are few obvious signs of encouragement. Job losses are escalating at an alarming rate and many of them are occurring across the high streets of NI’s cities and towns. The economy remains heavily dependent on the UK Exchequer for a significant amount of funding and it is increasingly apparent that there is little prospect of this dependency reducing. And Belfast our capital city feels more like an American western movie – a largely deserted city centre, our parks left to fester and to top it all too many bins choked with the debris of the worst aspects of city life.
Regardless of these issues, there is a critical need to assess our economic situation over the next twenty years. The world outlook is fragile with countries across the globe taking on huge levels of debt. At the same time, there is almost universally a wave of ageing populations with much higher levels of dependency. And then there are the unprecedented challenges climate change is already presenting which will be the most damaging to the poorest in our world.
Nearly a decade ago Tim Harford (FT columnist, writer, broadcaster of Radio 4’s “More or Less” ) wrote a fantastic book “Adapt – Why success always starts with failure”. There are many fascinating insights in this book. I believe that we have reached that critical moment in terms of where we are in Northern Ireland. It is time we transform/adapt our relationship with the Republic of Ireland to one of co-operation and collaboration as we look out to global markets.
Instead of the win-lose approach, which for too long has been part of our national currency, we adopt a win-win strategy. This will require a new approach to all N-S bodies fully accepting the need to ensure that E-W is also put/ kept on the same footing. Indeed, one could argue that for N-S bodies to thrive the E-W ones are possibly more important given the importance of the British market to both jurisdictions. In addition, there are new tensions arising with the renewed Scottish independence movement still very much alive despite the adverse outcome in 2014 of its “once in a generation” referendum. This may have potentially massive implications for both islands.
The most critical part of building capability between the jurisdictions in terms of an economic transformation is the corridor between Belfast and Dublin. In February 2010, Irish Academy of Engineering and Engineers Ireland (both all-island bodies) published “Infrastructure for an island population of 8m” by 2030. It anticipates “a Belfast-Dublin Corridor with a population of 4m and appropriate infrastructure investment which can compete with other major European urban zones”.
Ten years later little has been done in substance to prepare for this prospect. It is critical to wealth creation that detailed plans are now drawn up. More than 25 years ago, one of NI’s most senior and highly regarded civil servants (who then went on to be the Chair of Ulster Bank and Bombardier) considered the importance of the corridor. Sir George Quigley was also instrumental in persuading the Treasury to agree to a lower level of corporation tax. Sadly, this golden goose has in all probability flown. Suffice to say the potential of the Economic Corridor between Belfast and Dublin remains the single most important economic opportunity to face this island.
As a first step, implementing as soon as possible an hourly service would be a statement of intent. That will however take time (having taken a decade already!). What could be done with a will is to get a train into Dublin Connolly before 9am – the first service leaves Belfast at 6.45am and arrives at 9am if it runs on time. The next is the 8am service that gets in at 10.05am. It would be great to have a 6.30am, 7.30am and 8.30am service from Belfast into Dublin as close as possible to 8.30am, 9.30am and 10.30am. In the afternoon, if we had a 4.30pm from Dublin and then a 5.30pm and a 6.30pm service that would be a great start. This should happen before 2020 is out with all the necessary social distancing measures in place. Historically, getting the slots sorted has been very hard because of local services took priority but now there might be a window (every cloud has a silver lining).
In July 2019, in an address at the McGill Summer School, I suggested that there is a need for much greater ambition when it comes to rail travel between the two/three principal cities on the island of Ireland – during the last Rugby World Cup in Japan the trains made a huge impact on visitors from Ireland. The proposals by the two rail authorities of getting to a service of 90 minutes between Belfast and Dublin (over a very long time – not specified) just does not cut it. 45 minutes is where we need to aim. It is important to remember that we are competing economically in a global market, just as we do in sport!
We face many risks as we look out over the next decade and beyond. It has always surprised me how we assume that the Barnett Formula is a given. When first implemented some fifty years ago it was meant to be a “temporary measure. At some point, HM Treasury may seek to review this “generous arrangement”. Central to this potentially happening is the perception/the reality of equity. Across England, there will be (are) many places that have broadly equivalent levels of deprivation and poverty to many parts of Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales. It is not inconceivable that each of these places will ask why they are not similarly deserving of similar levels of support – a levelling up of the playing field perhaps? The challenge of how this could be accommodated in a post-Covid-19 world where revenue funding will become scarcer and scarcer is very problematic.
To quote from the closing comments of an address “Finding your Element” by the brilliant Sir Ken Robinson (who sadly died last month), he refers to a beautiful short poem “Risk” by Anaïs Nin:
And then the day came,
when the risk
to remain tight
in a bud
was more painful
than the risk
it took
to blossom.
We on this part of this beautiful island have suffered the pain over too many decades of being “tight in a bud”. We need to risk everything to blossom.
This post is part of our #TheReset series in association with Ulster Bank
If you would like to get involved in #TheReset, either as an individual or as part of an organisation, please do get in touch by emailing us at [email protected] or [email protected] with an idea for inclusion in a range of articles or events over September and October.
Photo by Greg Clarke


sluggerotoole--2020-09-15--#TheReset – It’s an Employers Market… Is it not?

In the wake of Coronavirus , business owners are looking for silver linings in the rubble around them .
A key shift would seem to be in the employment market where , for some time now , employees have ruled the roost .
At the beginning of the year , companies scrambled to impress current and prospective talent , trying to convince them of the ‘ why us ’ component of their employment offer .
They invested in Employer Branding and Employee Experience as a priority for their budget and key contributor to overall organisational objectives .
Organisations such as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ they built and launched a successful Employer Brand ( Fast Company , 2016 ) .
However , now that unemployment is on the rise , many employers believe they can go back to basics on their offer as target talent are forced to be less picky and those lucky enough to have a job are keeping their heads down in an effort to hold on to it .
It ’ s an employers ’ market , is it not ?
It is not .
Although much has changed in the employment landscape throughout @ @ @ @ @ @ @ experienced unnerving and uncertain times , employers still need to work hard if they want their people strategy to succeed .
Those organisations who choose to be lazy in the way they communicate with target talent are likely to get left behind ( probably for the second time ) .
As media coverage builds around potential redundancies post-furlough with no indication that the chancellor intends to change his mind on the deadline , it can be easy to find reasons to cut recruitment marketing and employee experience budgets .
However , here are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to sign on the dotted line could prove harder than ever .
# 1 It ’ s More Difficult To Establish Your Unique Selling Point ( USP ) Although the term ‘ USP ’ is generally associated with communicating with clients , it is relevant when marketing to current and prospective talent .
It is the ‘ why join ’ and ‘ why stay ’ with us of the employment offer , placing emphasis on the ‘ with us ’ .
It was difficult enough to differentiate from talent competitors pre-covid when employers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ think and feel ’ factors of the office environment , however as remote working prevails as the rule rather than the exception , this will be somewhat difficult to maintain .
Speaking of remote working… Many organisations are in the process of establishing a ‘ work from anywhere ’ policy document allowing their people to work in the office , from home or from the Bahamas if they so desire .
This could prove challenging for businesses as it means they no are no longer solely competing with their local talent competitors .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ Come By And even harder to keep .
The chances are the dream candidate is an overachiever .
They may even be the best in the business .
For this reason , they will never be without a good opportunity .
They will always have somewhere to call home in the world of employment .
However , even dream candidates value job security to an extent and so prospective employers will need to work even harder to convince them to make a change .
It is tempting for employers to breathe a sigh @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the past , as I like to call it ‘ Employer Blanding ’ .
However , we must seek to be creative and truly strike a genuine and unique connection with future employees , remembering that if this connection is easy to make it is just as easy to break .
This post is part of our # TheReset series in association with Ulster Bank If you would like to get involved in # TheReset , either as an individual or as part of an organisation , please do get in touch @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ] or [ email protected ] with an idea for inclusion in a range of articles or events over September and October .
Photo by StartupStockPhotos is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA

In the wake of Coronavirus, business owners are looking for silver linings in the rubble around them. A key shift would seem to be in the employment market where, for some time now, employees have ruled the roost.
At the beginning of the year, companies scrambled to impress current and prospective talent, trying to convince them of the ‘why us’ component of their employment offer. They invested in Employer Branding and Employee Experience as a priority for their budget and key contributor to overall organisational objectives. Organisations such as Virgin Media have reported saving millions when they built and launched a successful Employer Brand (Fast Company, 2016).
However, now that unemployment is on the rise, many employers believe they can go back to basics on their offer as target talent are forced to be less picky and those lucky enough to have a job are keeping their heads down in an effort to hold on to it. It’s an employers’ market, is it not?
It is not. Although much has changed in the employment landscape throughout the last few months and employees have experienced unnerving and uncertain times, employers still need to work hard if they want their people strategy to succeed. Those organisations who choose to be lazy in the way they communicate with target talent are likely to get left behind (probably for the second time).
As media coverage builds around potential redundancies post-furlough with no indication that the chancellor intends to change his mind on the deadline, it can be easy to find reasons to cut recruitment marketing and employee experience budgets. However, here are three reasons why getting the dream candidate to sign on the dotted line could prove harder than ever.
#1 It’s More Difficult To Establish Your Unique Selling Point (USP)
Although the term ‘USP’ is generally associated with communicating with clients, it is relevant when marketing to current and prospective talent. It is the ‘why join’ and ‘why stay’ with us of the employment offer, placing emphasis on the ‘with us’. It was difficult enough to differentiate from talent competitors pre-covid when employers had control over the ‘look, think and feel’ factors of the office environment, however as remote working prevails as the rule rather than the exception, this will be somewhat difficult to maintain.
#2 Remote Work = Remote Opportunities
Speaking of remote working… Many organisations are in the process of establishing a ‘work from anywhere’ policy document allowing their people to work in the office, from home or from the Bahamas if they so desire. This could prove challenging for businesses as it means they no are no longer solely competing with their local talent competitors.
#3 Exceptional Talent Is Hard To Come By
And even harder to keep. The chances are the dream candidate is an overachiever. They may even be the best in the business. For this reason, they will never be without a good opportunity. They will always have somewhere to call home in the world of employment. However, even dream candidates value job security to an extent and so prospective employers will need to work even harder to convince them to make a change.
It is tempting for employers to breathe a sigh of relief and return to recruitment strategies of the past, as I like to call it ‘Employer Blanding’. However, we must seek to be creative and truly strike a genuine and unique connection with future employees, remembering that if this connection is easy to make it is just as easy to break.
This post is part of our #TheReset series in association with Ulster Bank
If you would like to get involved in #TheReset, either as an individual or as part of an organisation, please do get in touch by emailing us at [email protected] or [email protected] with an idea for inclusion in a range of articles or events over September and October.
Photo by StartupStockPhotos is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA


sluggerotoole--2020-09-15--Why can’t the Johnson government see that pure parliamentary sovereignty is incompatible with the su

Why can’t the Johnson government see that pure parliamentary sovereignty is incompatible with the survival of the UK?

Fintan O ’ Toole has written another of his entertaining essays trying to get to the bottom of why the UK and the English in particular are behaving like lemmings throwing themselves over a cliff over Brexit .
In the Irish Times today he comes with up “ England as Ireland.
” The big problem with English nationalism is that it is naïve .
Because it has been buried for centuries under two layers of disguise – the United Kingdom and the British Empire – it has no knowledge of what , through bitter experience over those bloody years , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ had to discover about nationalism .
What other countries ( Ireland very much included ) have learned the hard way is that nationalism is petrol : a combustible political fuel that can drive you forward or , if you do not control it , drive you off a cliff .
England is emerging , not from its own empire , but from an imaginary empire of the EU .
And ( with a certain comic magnificence ) the nearest example of this process to hand is Ireland ’ s struggle for independence from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Bernard Jenkin explaining on BBC ’ s Newsnight last week why it was okay to renege on the withdrawal treaty : “ The deal leaving the EU is a one-off exceptional treaty – it ’ s like an independent country leaving an empire.
” This bizarre mental construct of England-as-Ireland leads to the adoption , in the minds of English nationalists , of the Michael Collins model – sign the damn treaty and then you can change it afterwards .
The withdrawal treaty , like the Anglo-Irish treaty of 1921 , is not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the big reason why English nationalism can not articulate itself is that it can not admit to its own most obvious consequence : the break-up of the UK .
Toryism is supposed to be conservative and unionist , but it has become ( in objective effect ) radically anti-union .
It is pushing through the most extreme possible version of a Brexit that both Scotland and Northern Ireland rejected .
But since this can not be admitted , the blame for the consequences must be displaced .
These people , of course @ @ @ @ @ @ @ shifting the blame for their own failings on to their favourite scapegoat : the EU .
Thus , it is not English nationalism that is wrecking the union .
It is those damned foreigners .
We can make our own refinements .
Nigel Farage is the clear voice of English nationalism , just as Paisley was the voice of unionism long before he took it over .
Farage sets the pace but the Tories have been following him fast enough since 2016 to avoid being taken over unless they split along the red @ @ @ @ @ @ @ disastrous for the country although after the fright of 2017 , not so far for the Conservative party .
English nationalism hankers less after Empire , though the “ five eyes ” is a remnant of that , more after a Rule Britannia keep- out- the- French impulse that is the response to deep set fears of European dominance and eventual integration which Fintan always underplays .
It is a consistent thread in English history .
The far more interesting phenomenon now is how they are pulling in contradictory directions over the fate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the threat as they contemplate the consequences , combined with advancing a version of parliamentary sovereignty which devolution can finally veto .
Why else would they have gone through the contortions of first the back stop , then the front stop which they are now trying desperately to dump ?
Superficially the attempt to rewrite the Withdrawal Agreement with the Ireland/NI Protocol is a defence of the UK free trade , a cardinal principle of the Union .
But even the DUP MPs ( or most of them ) , know Johnson ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Cabinet Office in Whitehall “ Northern Ireland ” has become iconic even if bears little resemblance to the real place and its people .
It would be ‘ no surprise if English nationalists who are Tory MPs were beginning to wonder if the icon is worth its candle .

Fintan O’Toole has written another of his entertaining essays trying to get to the bottom of why the UK and the English in particular are behaving like lemmings throwing themselves over a cliff over Brexit. In the Irish Times today he comes with up “England as Ireland.”
The big problem with English nationalism is that it is naïve. Because it has been buried for centuries under two layers of disguise – the United Kingdom and the British Empire – it has no knowledge of what, through bitter experience over those bloody years, most of the rest of us have had to discover about nationalism. What other countries (Ireland very much included) have learned the hard way is that nationalism is petrol: a combustible political fuel that can drive you forward or, if you do not control it, drive you off a cliff.
England is emerging, not from its own empire, but from an imaginary empire of the EU. And (with a certain comic magnificence) the nearest example of this process to hand is Ireland’s struggle for independence from the UK. Hence the Brexiteer Sir Bernard Jenkin explaining on BBC’s Newsnight last week why it was okay to renege on the withdrawal treaty: “The deal leaving the EU is a one-off exceptional treaty – it’s like an independent country leaving an empire.”
This bizarre mental construct of England-as-Ireland leads to the adoption, in the minds of English nationalists, of the Michael Collins model – sign the damn treaty and then you can change it afterwards. The withdrawal treaty, like the Anglo-Irish treaty of 1921, is not a terminus but a springboard.
Secondly, the big reason why English nationalism cannot articulate itself is that it cannot admit to its own most obvious consequence: the break-up of the UK. Toryism is supposed to be conservative and unionist, but it has become (in objective effect) radically anti-union. It is pushing through the most extreme possible version of a Brexit that both Scotland and Northern Ireland rejected.
But since this cannot be admitted, the blame for the consequences must be displaced. These people, of course, have a lot of practice at shifting the blame for their own failings on to their favourite scapegoat: the EU. Thus, it is not English nationalism that is wrecking the union. It is those damned foreigners.
We can make our own refinements. Nigel Farage is the clear voice of English nationalism , just as Paisley was the voice of unionism long before he took it over. Farage sets the pace but the Tories have been following him fast enough since 2016 to avoid being taken over unless they split along the red lines.This tail wagging the dog has been disastrous for the country although after the fright of 2017, not so far for the Conservative party.
English nationalism hankers less after Empire , though the “five eyes” is a remnant of that, more after a Rule Britannia keep- out- the- French impulse that is the response to deep set fears of European dominance and eventual integration which Fintan always underplays. It is a consistent thread in English history.
The far more interesting phenomenon now is how they are pulling in contradictory directions over the fate of the Union; belated recognition of the threat as they contemplate the consequences, combined with advancing a version of parliamentary sovereignty which devolution can finally veto. Why else would they have gone through the contortions of first the back stop , then the front stop which they are now trying desperately to dump? Superficially the attempt to rewrite the Withdrawal Agreement with the Ireland/NI Protocol is a defence of the UK free trade, a cardinal principle of the Union. But even the DUP MPs (or most of them), know Johnson’s rhetoric rings hollow. Inside the Cabinet Office in Whitehall “Northern Ireland” has become iconic even if bears little resemblance to the real place and its people. It would be ‘no surprise if English nationalists who are Tory MPs were beginning to wonder if the icon is worth its candle.


sluggerotoole--2020-09-15--Engagement over a ‘shared island’ has to be honest, respectful, and built on a desire to improve rel

Engagement over a ‘shared island’ has to be honest, respectful, and built on a desire to improve relationships

Following the Brexit Referendum 2016 , Civic nationalism emerged alongside seasoned advocates as , rights , Northern Ireland – a special case , and erratic enthusiasm for a Border Poll framed the parameters of public debate .
Uncomfortable conversations on the long-term goal of the political unification of the two states which share geographical Ireland looked to build momentum .
However , overtures towards Unionism have proceeded along the narrow terrain of a simple narrative that whilst much is wrong in Northern Ireland everything is going well in the Republic ; that with Irish Unity inevitable , everything will turn @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in conversation about the political re-shaping of the island .
So strong is the belief that proponents have not set out a plan of delivery .
Is this because they know that when the evidence which must inform planning is assessed , pro-Union issue-based arguments will prove more convincing ; that those who are pro-Union have stronger arguments and indicators as to the public mood ?
These are so obvious that their absence from the current debate is distinctly peculiar : • the generosity of a subvention process , normal globally where some @ @ @ @ @ @ @ enjoy more favourable wealth opportunities ; • vital access to the British market and promotion of the economy , financial power and global influence through the Commonwealth and historical international linkage ; • the NHS facing pressures but remaining free at the point of entry ; • and Northern Ireland , emerging from the constraints of conflict .
And all of these are underpinned by social attitudes surveys which consistently tell us that twice as many prefer the Union over unity .
Criticism and impatience directed at Unionists point to a failure to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and groups engage all the time through Women ’ s Centres , restorative justice projects and conversations with Sinn Féin and others .
I have been one of a number of participants in the latter over a period of time .
As a result , we can now agree to disagree whilst sharing common interests not least sporting and musical .
It becomes clear , in the light of this engagement and disappointing to some degree , that what these spokespersons are expressing is frustration that those who are pro-Union do not engage @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is an obvious indication that they ignore the survey data and also the contribution pro-Union groups and individuals make to cultural , social and economic life .
Those who strive to build a society that is shared are ignored .
Spokespersons choose to voice a demeaning ‘ you poor Prods have lost everything ’ narrative .
The constant confidence leg kicking of the PUL community presents as strategic narrative and a refusal to accept that the pro-Union community is far from down and out .
It does not augur well for the pursuance @ @ @ @ @ @ @ now also colliding with the legacy of EU negotiating tactics fuelled by resentment and slender understanding of NI ’ s diversity and the crucial importance of the principle of consent .
Many Unionists , including some shackled by party constraints and career survival , are prepared to engage but not necessarily accommodate a pre-determined outcome .
Many visit car showrooms but we do not rush into buying the first vehicle the salesperson ushers us towards .
If the salesperson feels he is arranging a party no one wishes to attend , so be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ask without prejudice to their constitutional preference .
In response , there are few definitive answers and much fuzzy thinking .
Sinn Féin and its group-think associates , as the most enthused advocates , are often silent in any response which requires a departure from rehearsed sloganizing or could act as a trojan horse to the citadel of sealed republican thinking .
Simplistic referrals to symbols , flags and anthems fail to address the questionable extent to which there is any deep desire in either jurisdiction for action on Irish Unity at this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to the NHS , the largest publicly-funded health service in the world or the vulnerability of what some term a ‘ flag of convenience ‘ Irish economy to EU taxation measures and Brexit uncertainty .
All of this is to ignore the uneasy history of a country which in spite of warnings by ardent nationalist and poet Senator WB Yeats saw Ireland develop as a confessional state where , in the words of Church of Ireland Archbishop Otto Simms , it was best to ‘ keep your heads down ’ .
In more @ @ @ @ @ @ @ deal with issues of collusion and clerical compliance with the violent methods of republican insurgency in Northern Ireland suggests there are issues to resolve before the unity of people to which the late John Hume referred is complete .
Unity will never mean uniformity to a narrow nationalist ideology .
This is only a shortlist of issues and honest concerns .
There are meaningful and cogent alternatives but they require over-heated nationalism to de-commission ‘ war by another means ’ and the rutted notion that there are no benefits to being in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of fractious politics , NI is becoming a site of parity of esteem , a world leader in Fintech and Cybercrime development , and has developed a global film industry .
Why then is there an entrenched refusal to acknowledge these successes after 40 years of conflict ?
Why not contribute to a consensual and realistically incremental approach to build better North-South relations through trade , health , and infrastructure and raise the island above the constitutional ?
Can this realistic and mutually respectful approach be framed to avoid producing a wasteful , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ conversation that is not needed at this time as we anticipate post-Brexit and Covid-19 fallout .
In a Framework Document launched as Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael strove to form a working coalition in Dublin with a willing partner – and that took 3 months – Ireland as a ‘ shared island ’ is tabled for discussion and exploration .
As yet there is little detail other than a clear desire on the part of the Irish government to create an All-Island economy .
It has been stated publicly that the original name @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ but was altered on the advice of the Green Party in NI ; hopefully a wise and sensitive decision where statesmanship took precedence over proving ‘ green credentials ’ and not a strategy to avoid ‘ spooking the horses.
’ It is to be welcomed that the First Minister has indicated a willingness to engage without prejudice to pro-Union preferences .
A productive way forward will be to map potential and share expertise on healthcare , investment , climate change , education and social issues like deprivation , the new precariat of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and crime .
This can allow both the ROI and NI to cast aside the constraints of our intertwined histories and proceed in a spirit of reconciliation and mutual respect where no one is asked or expected to abandon or shelve their identities and preferred constitutional status .
As recognised in New Decade , New Approach ( PDF ) Unionism is culturally , socially and denominationally diverse , in addition to being a political identity , and needs to be understood as such .
When the Republic of Ireland came into existence , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ but not cultural rights .
These eventually became an historical forfeit to the development of the new state .
A similar outcome would serve only to progress internal colonisation Is this the divisive and contentious shared island or Ireland anyone wants or needs ; the kind of tug-of-war conversations we need to have ?
Is the better conversation not that of putting everyone on a prioritised trajectory of making Northern Ireland a better place within the 3 strands of the GFA to build reconciliation , equality , and prosperity now Engagement has to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on a desire to improve relationships within and across the two jurisdictions linked by geography .
If there is a feeling of threat , irredentism or land grab it will not work .
The new process will be programmed to join a list of missed opportunities to which all have contributed .
Instead of addressing common predicaments , we will grow the problems .
Photo by JacksonDavid is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA

Following the Brexit Referendum 2016, Civic nationalism emerged alongside seasoned advocates as, rights, Northern Ireland – a special case, and erratic enthusiasm for a Border Poll framed the parameters of public debate. Uncomfortable conversations on the long-term goal of the political unification of the two states which share geographical Ireland looked to build momentum.
However, overtures towards Unionism have proceeded along the narrow terrain of a simple narrative that whilst much is wrong in Northern Ireland everything is going well in the Republic; that with Irish Unity inevitable, everything will turn out well therefore Unionists need to engage in conversation about the political re-shaping of the island.
So strong is the belief that proponents have not set out a plan of delivery.
Is this because they know that when the evidence which must inform planning is assessed, pro-Union issue-based arguments will prove more convincing; that those who are pro-Union have stronger arguments and indicators as to the public mood?
These are so obvious that their absence from the current debate is distinctly peculiar:
the generosity of a subvention process, normal globally where some regions due to a number of factors enjoy more favourable wealth opportunities;
vital access to the British market and promotion of the economy, financial power and global influence through the Commonwealth and historical international linkage;
the NHS facing pressures but remaining free at the point of entry;
and Northern Ireland, emerging from the constraints of conflict.
And all of these are underpinned by social attitudes surveys which consistently tell us that twice as many prefer the Union over unity.
Criticism and impatience directed at Unionists point to a failure to engage about the future but pro-union individuals and groups engage all the time through Women’s Centres, restorative justice projects and conversations with Sinn Féin and others.
I have been one of a number of participants in the latter over a period of time. As a result, we can now agree to disagree whilst sharing common interests not least sporting and musical.
It becomes clear, in the light of this engagement and disappointing to some degree, that what these spokespersons are expressing is frustration that those who are pro-Union do not engage on planning a united Ireland. It is an obvious indication that they ignore the survey data and also the contribution pro-Union groups and individuals make to cultural, social and economic life.
Those who strive to build a society that is shared are ignored. Spokespersons choose to voice a demeaning ‘you poor Prods have lost everything’ narrative.
The constant confidence leg kicking of the PUL community presents as strategic narrative and a refusal to accept that the pro-Union community is far from down and out. It does not augur well for the pursuance of an agreed or shared island agenda now also colliding with the legacy of EU negotiating tactics fuelled by resentment and slender understanding of NI’s diversity and the crucial importance of the principle of consent.
Many Unionists, including some shackled by party constraints and career survival, are prepared to engage but not necessarily accommodate a pre-determined outcome. Many visit car showrooms but we do not rush into buying the first vehicle the salesperson ushers us towards. If the salesperson feels he is arranging a party no one wishes to attend, so be it.
There are questions that Unionists ask without prejudice to their constitutional preference. In response, there are few definitive answers and much fuzzy thinking. Sinn Féin and its group-think associates, as the most enthused advocates, are often silent in any response which requires a departure from rehearsed sloganizing or could act as a trojan horse to the citadel of sealed republican thinking.
Simplistic referrals to symbols, flags and anthems fail to address the questionable extent to which there is any deep desire in either jurisdiction for action on Irish Unity at this time, the lack of an equivalent to the NHS, the largest publicly-funded health service in the world or the vulnerability of what some term a ‘flag of convenience ‘Irish economy to EU taxation measures and Brexit uncertainty.
All of this is to ignore the uneasy history of a country which in spite of warnings by ardent nationalist and poet Senator WB Yeats saw Ireland develop as a confessional state where, in the words of Church of Ireland Archbishop Otto Simms, it was best to ‘keep your heads down’.
In more recent times, an underlying failure to deal with issues of collusion and clerical compliance with the violent methods of republican insurgency in Northern Ireland suggests there are issues to resolve before the unity of people to which the late John Hume referred is complete. Unity will never mean uniformity to a narrow nationalist ideology.
This is only a shortlist of issues and honest concerns.
There are meaningful and cogent alternatives but they require over-heated nationalism to de-commission ‘war by another means’ and the rutted notion that there are no benefits to being in the UK.
Away from the white noise of fractious politics, NI is becoming a site of parity of esteem, a world leader in Fintech and Cybercrime development, and has developed a global film industry. Why then is there an entrenched refusal to acknowledge these successes after 40 years of conflict? Why not contribute to a consensual and realistically incremental approach to build better North-South relations through trade, health, and infrastructure and raise the island above the constitutional?
Can this realistic and mutually respectful approach be framed to avoid producing a wasteful, difficult, technical, and probably highly-charged conversation that is not needed at this time as we anticipate post-Brexit and Covid-19 fallout.
In a Framework Document launched as Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael strove to form a working coalition in Dublin with a willing partner – and that took 3 months – Ireland as a ‘shared island’ is tabled for discussion and exploration. As yet there is little detail other than a clear desire on the part of the Irish government to create an All-Island economy.
It has been stated publicly that the original name for the initiative was ‘Shared Ireland’ but was altered on the advice of the Green Party in NI; hopefully a wise and sensitive decision where statesmanship took precedence over proving ‘green credentials’ and not a strategy to avoid ‘spooking the horses.’ It is to be welcomed that the First Minister has indicated a willingness to engage without prejudice to pro-Union preferences.
A productive way forward will be to map potential and share expertise on healthcare, investment, climate change, education and social issues like deprivation, the new precariat of youth and graduate unemployment, disability rights and crime. This can allow both the ROI and NI to cast aside the constraints of our intertwined histories and proceed in a spirit of reconciliation and mutual respect where no one is asked or expected to abandon or shelve their identities and preferred constitutional status.
As recognised in New Decade, New Approach (PDF) Unionism is culturally, socially and denominationally diverse, in addition to being a political identity, and needs to be understood as such. When the Republic of Ireland came into existence, Unionists and Protestants were afforded religious rights but not cultural rights. These eventually became an historical forfeit to the development of the new state. A similar outcome would serve only to progress internal colonisation
Is this the divisive and contentious shared island or Ireland anyone wants or needs; the kind of tug-of-war conversations we need to have? Is the better conversation not that of putting everyone on a prioritised trajectory of making Northern Ireland a better place within the 3 strands of the GFA to build reconciliation, equality, and prosperity now
Engagement has to be honest, respectful, and built on a desire to improve relationships within and across the two jurisdictions linked by geography. If there is a feeling of threat, irredentism or land grab it will not work. The new process will be programmed to join a list of missed opportunities to which all have contributed. Instead of addressing common predicaments, we will grow the problems.
Photo by JacksonDavid is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA


sluggerotoole--2020-09-17--In the absence of real deterrents, you’ll catch more students with honey than with vinegar

It would be difficult to look at the scenes from the Holylands of Belfast in the last number of days and not be very concerned .
Scores of students partying until the early hours of the morning caused understandable frustration and fury among residents and a media furore .
Either the young people in question do not fully understand the risk to themselves and others around them , or , the public awareness campaign is not persuading them sufficiently , or , they both understand and are persuaded but are choosing to ignore their better judgement anyway .
The last @ @ @ @ @ @ @ unique to students when it comes to complying with the public health guidelines in Northern Ireland .
We can all agree there is a problem here .
The question , then , is the solution .
The most compelling of takes on this was , in my view , from Allison Morris from the Irish News who said in a tweet : The wider point being made here is about the way we are ultimately trying to persuade groups of people , students included , to adhere to the guidelines as communicated through @ @ @ @ @ @ @ analysis of the situation , there is clearly an inconsistency and asymmetry .
The overwhelming health and economic narrative of the pandemic has focused on the impact on people over the age of 25 or school age children .
Significantly less attention has been given to the current and future impact on students , many of whom prop up the retail and hospitality sectors whose plight we hear about on a daily basis .
As Ulster Bank Chief Economist , Richard Ramsey , recently put it , “ if our older people are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ our young people are at the forefront of an economic emergency ” .
Inconsistency and asymmetry breed a perception of unfairness , followed by resentment , and ultimately result in non-compliance .
But in typical Northern Ireland fashion , we react .
We shout .
We condemn .
And all without thinking and without taking a take a step back and asking ourselves whether this is the most effective way to achieve our goal which is , in this case , persuading more people to do the right thing .
Our outrage distracts @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Having worked for a time on government behavioural change campaigns , you quickly learn that in the absence of a deterrent strong enough ( not to mention the capacity to enforce it ! )
to ensure compliance of a particular behaviour , which is mostly the case in a liberal democracy such as ours , you ’ re relying on the carrot approach .
The art of persuasion .
There is a whole discipline of communications devoted to incorporating behavioural science and psychology into public awareness campaigns , but it is worth reminding @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a two-way street – give and take .
It requires the communicator to be understanding of the position of the receiver and what messaging is likely to encourage them or discourage them .
To take a simplistic example but one which we now know a lot about – if you ’ re trying to encourage a smoker to quit , you ’ re unlikely to be successful if you seek to make them feel bad or guilty about smoking .
But take , for example , the 2019 Road Safety Scotland and Scottish @ @ @ @ @ @ @ between the age of 20-29 .
The campaign shows their Grandmother appear in the car beside them expressing her disappointment at the speed in which they are driving .
The Scottish Government , award-winning with their social behavioural change campaigns , recognised that research into driving behaviour found that young men believe they drive better with “ precious cargo ” in their car , such as elderly relatives .
This appeal to a young driver ’ s better nature is a much more sophisticated and nuanced approach which draws on their emotional triggers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ behaviour in the Holylands is something we should be trying to stop or even that it is completely unacceptable .
In fact , if you ask any resident living in the area this is just the next iteration of a much wider , longstanding issue about the behaviour of the student population in the area .
But the latter isn ’ t the task at hand and until there are enforceable deterrents in place , sufficiently strong to make the stick approach effective , perhaps we might catch more students with honey than @ @ @ @ @ @ @ licensed under CC BY-NC-SA

It would be difficult to look at the scenes from the Holylands of Belfast in the last number of days and not be very concerned. Scores of students partying until the early hours of the morning caused understandable frustration and fury among residents and a media furore.
Either the young people in question do not fully understand the risk to themselves and others around them, or, the public awareness campaign is not persuading them sufficiently, or, they both understand and are persuaded but are choosing to ignore their better judgement anyway.
The last of the three is not a problem unique to students when it comes to complying with the public health guidelines in Northern Ireland.
We can all agree there is a problem here. The question, then, is the solution. The most compelling of takes on this was, in my view, from Allison Morris from the Irish News who said in a tweet:
“Those students must be touched how worried everyone is about them now, no one worried when they working in supermarkets on minimum wage throughout lockdown while the rest of us where safely at home, or waiting tables when the gov told people to eat out..”
The wider point being made here is about the way we are ultimately trying to persuade groups of people, students included, to adhere to the guidelines as communicated through the public awareness campaign. In this analysis of the situation, there is clearly an inconsistency and asymmetry.
The overwhelming health and economic narrative of the pandemic has focused on the impact on people over the age of 25 or school age children. Significantly less attention has been given to the current and future impact on students, many of whom prop up the retail and hospitality sectors whose plight we hear about on a daily basis.
As Ulster Bank Chief Economist, Richard Ramsey, recently put it, “if our older people are the forefront of a health emergency, our young people are at the forefront of an economic emergency”.
Inconsistency and asymmetry breed a perception of unfairness, followed by resentment, and ultimately result in non-compliance.
But in typical Northern Ireland fashion, we react. We shout. We condemn. And all without thinking and without taking a take a step back and asking ourselves whether this is the most effective way to achieve our goal which is, in this case, persuading more people to do the right thing.
Our outrage distracts us from the problem at hand.
Having worked for a time on government behavioural change campaigns, you quickly learn that in the absence of a deterrent strong enough (not to mention the capacity to enforce it!) to ensure compliance of a particular behaviour, which is mostly the case in a liberal democracy such as ours, you’re relying on the carrot approach. The art of persuasion.
There is a whole discipline of communications devoted to incorporating behavioural science and psychology into public awareness campaigns, but it is worth reminding ourselves of the basics.
Persuasion is a two-way street – give and take. It requires the communicator to be understanding of the position of the receiver and what messaging is likely to encourage them or discourage them. To take a simplistic example but one which we now know a lot about – if you’re trying to encourage a smoker to quit, you’re unlikely to be successful if you seek to make them feel bad or guilty about smoking.
But take, for example, the 2019 Road Safety Scotland and Scottish Government campaign which targeted young male drivers between the age of 20-29. The campaign shows their Grandmother appear in the car beside them expressing her disappointment at the speed in which they are driving.
The Scottish Government, award-winning with their social behavioural change campaigns, recognised that research into driving behaviour found that young men believe they drive better with “precious cargo” in their car, such as elderly relatives.
This appeal to a young driver’s better nature is a much more sophisticated and nuanced approach which draws on their emotional triggers and drivers.
Nobody is denying the behaviour in the Holylands is something we should be trying to stop or even that it is completely unacceptable. In fact, if you ask any resident living in the area this is just the next iteration of a much wider, longstanding issue about the behaviour of the student population in the area.
But the latter isn’t the task at hand and until there are enforceable deterrents in place, sufficiently strong to make the stick approach effective, perhaps we might catch more students with honey than with vinegar.
Photo by pixel2013 is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA