sluggerotoole--2020-02-04--A way can be found between the EU rock and the GB hard place. But will Boris Johnson let us take it?

We are literally at sea over what Northern Ireland ’ s special status with the EU will mean in practice .
Our Brexit guru – or should I now say , our Guru on Trading Relations with GB and the EU Katy Hayward writing in the Belfast Telegraph explains neatly why Northern Ireland is between a rock and a hard place In the past Katy was keen to repeat assurances that NI ’ s different economic relationship with the EU from GB had no constitutional significance .
But the new Ireland NI/protocol of the new Withdrawal Agreement struck by Boris @ @ @ @ @ @ @ than enjoying a “ best of both worlds ” scenario , Northern Ireland risks finding itself caught between a rock and a hard place when it comes to the implementation of the Withdrawal Agreement .
It is increasingly the case that people from all backgrounds in Northern Ireland think that Brexit makes Irish unity more likely .
In 2016 , 18 % of unionist respondents thought Brexit made a united Ireland more likely ; by 2018 it was 28 % .
The proportion of nationalists thinking this rose from 38 % in 2016 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ there is a big difference between expecting something and welcoming it .
By late 2018 ( the latest data we have ) , one-in-three of DUP supporters said Brexit makes them even less in favour of a united Ireland .
Unsurprisingly , one-in-two of Sinn Fein supporters said Brexit made them even more in favour of it .
As for the avowedly non-aligned , they are changing .
For one thing they are ( now ) voting , motivated , it seems , by a determination to remain .
They are increasingly of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Ireland more likely .
But they are not necessarily in favour of it .
While people in Northern Ireland are increasingly likely to think Brexit makes Irish unity more likely , there ’ s increasing polarisation in terms of how people view the prospect .
In other words , Brexit has made something that people will disagree about profoundly ( ie Irish unity ) increasingly likely and increasingly consequential .
Our veteran economist John Simpson sees a way through ; a variant of the old trusted trader scheme There would be no trading @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the UK would agree an extensive free trade deal with the EU , and the UK and EU could agree that the inherited regulatory alignment for trade in goods should be maintained .
Unhappily for ease of administration , there is no promise that these two features will be maintained .
If there is no free trade deal between the UK and EU , then there may be customs duties , both ways , for businesses to pay .
Faced with the need to have documentary evidence of trade flows between GB , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ authorities should now be devising a simplified paper trail to minimise any extra costs .
One option would be for the customs authorities , by agreement , to avoid unnecessary paperwork for businesses which register as an ‘ authorised economic operator ’ and which have permission to move goods , which would not attract duty , on an open basis – in other words , there would be an honest trader assumption , subject only to occasional unplanned inspections at the ports .
There is a concern that the maintenance of regulatory alignment @ @ @ @ @ @ @ challenged because of emerging differences .
The EU may insist on strict technical alignment whilst the UK is expected to suggest that , with a degree of flexibility , any trade deal should rely on ‘ mutual recognition ’ clauses .
During 2020 , the differences in language usage are set to create a new dimension for the post-Brexit scene .
With goodwill , Northern Ireland should be able to argue for special arrangements giving the best of both worlds .
But is goodwill present ?
The problem is that all easing moves @ @ @ @ @ @ @ an approach to the next stage of negotiations announced yesterday with fanfare but no detail : Mr Johnson ’ s fundamental message to the EU is that Britain wants a free trade agreement ( FTA ) with no tariffs , fees , charges or quotas on goods flowing in either direction .
But he will not sign up to so-called regulatory alignment , in which Britain would have to follow the EU ’ s lead on standards .
Mr Johnson said : “ There is no need for a free trade agreement to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , subsidies , social protection , the environment , or anything similar any more than the EU should be obliged to accept UK rules .
We will not engage in some cut-throat race to the bottom .
We are not leaving the EU to undermine European standards , we will not engage in any kind of dumping whether commercial , or social , or environmental.
” So looking at it with heroic optimism the UK will do better than align with EU standards , it will exceed them .
No mention here though @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s need for foreign labour in the tourist industry .
And fishing ?
Let ’ s not go there today .

Katy Hayward
We are literally at sea over what Northern Ireland’s special status with the EU will mean in practice. Our Brexit guru – or should I now say, our Guru on Trading Relations with GB and the EU Katy Hayward writing in the Belfast Telegraph explains neatly why Northern Ireland is between a rock and a hard place
In the past Katy was keen to repeat assurances that NI’s different economic relationship with the EU from GB had no constitutional significance. But the new Ireland NI/protocol of the new Withdrawal Agreement struck by Boris Johnson has changed all that.
Rather than enjoying a “best of both worlds” scenario, Northern Ireland risks finding itself caught between a rock and a hard place when it comes to the implementation of the Withdrawal Agreement.
It is increasingly the case that people from all backgrounds in Northern Ireland think that Brexit makes Irish unity more likely. In 2016, 18% of unionist respondents thought Brexit made a united Ireland more likely; by 2018 it was 28%. The proportion of nationalists thinking this rose from 38% in 2016 to 64% in 2018.
But there is a big difference between expecting something and welcoming it. By late 2018 (the latest data we have), one-in-three of DUP supporters said Brexit makes them even less in favour of a united Ireland. Unsurprisingly, one-in-two of Sinn Fein supporters said Brexit made them even more in favour of it.
As for the avowedly non-aligned, they are changing. For one thing they are (now) voting, motivated, it seems, by a determination to remain. They are increasingly of the view that Brexit makes a united Ireland more likely. But they are not necessarily in favour of it.
While people in Northern Ireland are increasingly likely to think Brexit makes Irish unity more likely, there’s increasing polarisation in terms of how people view the prospect. In other words, Brexit has made something that people will disagree about profoundly (ie Irish unity) increasingly likely and increasingly consequential.
Our veteran economist John Simpson sees a way through; a variant of the old trusted trader scheme
There would be no trading problems if two features remained unchanged: the UK would agree an extensive free trade deal with the EU, and the UK and EU could agree that the inherited regulatory alignment for trade in goods should be maintained.
Unhappily for ease of administration, there is no promise that these two features will be maintained.
If there is no free trade deal between the UK and EU, then there may be customs duties, both ways, for businesses to pay.
Faced with the need to have documentary evidence of trade flows between GB, NI and RoI, the various customs authorities should now be devising a simplified paper trail to minimise any extra costs.
One option would be for the customs authorities, by agreement, to avoid unnecessary paperwork for businesses which register as an ‘authorised economic operator’ and which have permission to move goods, which would not attract duty, on an open basis – in other words, there would be an honest trader assumption, subject only to occasional unplanned inspections at the ports.
There is a concern that the maintenance of regulatory alignment between the UK and EU will be challenged because of emerging differences.
The EU may insist on strict technical alignment whilst the UK is expected to suggest that, with a degree of flexibility, any trade deal should rely on ‘mutual recognition’ clauses. During 2020, the differences in language usage are set to create a new dimension for the post-Brexit scene.
With goodwill, Northern Ireland should be able to argue for special arrangements giving the best of both worlds.
But is goodwill present? The problem is that all easing moves seem flatly rejected by Boris Johnson in an approach to the next stage of negotiations announced yesterday with fanfare but no detail:
Mr Johnson’s fundamental message to the EU is that Britain wants a free trade agreement (FTA) with no tariffs, fees, charges or quotas on goods flowing in either direction.
But he will not sign up to so-called regulatory alignment, in which Britain would have to follow the EU’s lead on standards.
Mr Johnson said: “There is no need for a free trade agreement to involve accepting EU rules on competition policy, subsidies, social protection, the environment, or anything similar any more than the EU should be obliged to accept UK rules.
We will not engage in some cut-throat race to the bottom. We are not leaving the EU to undermine European standards, we will not engage in any kind of dumping whether commercial, or social, or environmental.”
So looking at it with heroic optimism the UK will do better than align with EU standards, it will exceed them. No mention here though of how to satisfy Northern Ireland’s need for foreign labour in the tourist industry. And fishing? Let’s not go there today.


sluggerotoole--2020-02-04--Asking the right questions for a better-informed public

Asking the right questions for a better-informed public by Allan LEONARD 28 January 2020 Representing FactCheckNI and as part of a four-person panel , I was invited to give evidence to the UK House of Lords Select Committee on Democracy and Digital Technologies .
Fellow witnesses were Ed Humpherson ( Director General for Regulation , Office for Statistics Regulation ( OSR ) ) , Will Moy ( Chief Executive , Full Fact ) , and Jenni Sargent ( Managing Director , First Draft ) .
This was an extension of the committee ’ s previous call for written evidence , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ democracy can be supported , rather than undermined , in a digital world ” .
The focus is on six key areas : • the effects of digital technologies on public discourse This session of oral evidence looked at how information providers ensure that information provided to the public , particularly during election campaigns , is reliable and accurate ; how information is verified ; what are the key challenges facing information providers ; and how legislation in this area could help .
The session was live streamed to the public via a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on an uncorrected official record .
After introducing ourselves , Baroness McGregor-Smith asked us what effect misinformation — or information disorder — has had on public debate in the UK , our positive actions , and remaining challenges .
Jenni Sargent replied that anybody who wants to disrupt public discourse can utilise online spaces to shift the narrative , based on how they want people to perceive information .
Her organisation , First Draft , is trying to raise awareness of such tactics .
Ed Humpherson said that the velocity of bad information @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a role of the statistics authority is to provide a reliable , impartial evidence base .
I emphasised the value of critical thinking and to have people think for themselves .
Will Moy said that bad information can ruin lives — damaging people ’ s health , promoting hate , and hurting democracy .
But not all bad information does this , he added ; there is a spectrum of experiences and some are more consequential than others .
To help tackle real harms from bad information , Moy argued that there are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ — such as a respected and trusted public service broadcaster , freedom of speech , maintaining standards in public life ; the challenge is to move these into the world we live in now .
Baroness McGregor-Smith also asked all of us what we would do individually , personally , in fact checking a claim .
Humpherson replied “ going the extra click ” to see what sits behind a claim ; I replied that one of our research projects ( Co-Inform ) has the motto , “ think , check , share @ @ @ @ @ @ @ contained in Full Fact ’ s and FactCheckNI ’ s toolkit : ( 1 ) where has the claim come from ?
( 2 ) what does the claim really mean ?
and ( 3 ) how does the claim make you feel ?
Likewise , Sargent said that she will check the motivation of the claim and then apply verification skills to track down the source .
Lord Lucas asked whether there is scope to have a curated set of uncontested information on national questions , to help focus debate .
Moy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ House of Commons and House of Lords Libraries , as well as the Office of National Statistics .
But , he added , the challenge is translating that quality of impartial research and analysis for a general audience .
I gave the example of the Northern Ireland Statistics Research Agency ( NISRA ) curating its data products into themed presentations , such as on migration .
Humpherson endorsed this NI : IN PROFILE product .
He also informed the committee that at the OSR sees itself as serving a much bigger public debate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ accessible , coherent , and linked-up way of presenting information ” .
Sargent reminded everyone that when someone searches a topic online , they are not presented with any indicators of the credibility of the search results : “ It ’ s an open goal for anyone looking to drive a different narrative.
” Baroness Morris queried whether we can really expect every member of the public to develop fact-checking skills and apply them with every claim they come across .
Sargent ’ s response was that there are tactics being used by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ platforms and publishers have a responsibility to provide indicators of credibility , like we see with a newsprint font of the colour of the Financial Times .
I replied that a lot of this comes down to trust , “ which is a difficult thing to achieve and standardise ” .
I also made a distinction between claims that are made in public and microtargeting .
For claims made in public and broadcast publicly , media literacy , general awareness , and fact-checking organisations can respond very promptly .
Resolving the issue of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ education on its own is not going to resolve it ; software solutions could play a role .
Moy made a case for putting the topic in perspective ; the goal should be to reduce harm from false and misleading information by taking proportionate steps .
The challenge , he added , is to find the once sentence of advice that we could tell everyone to think about , like the public safety campaign , “ stop , look , and listen ” ; it might be “ take the next click ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that Ofcom is attempting , particularly with its Making Sense of Media programme .
Yet the UK Department for Education does not appear to be actively involved in such work , which Baroness McGregor-Smith noted and will feed back to the department , where she is a non-executive director .
Lord Holmes asked what are the characteristics of information that achieves public trust , and how can we ensure that the public can differentiate between legitimate and illegitimate sources of information .
Humpherson replied that it is a mistake to regard statistics as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with a social life ; they exist in context.
” He explained the three pillars of trustworthiness , quality , and value that underpins his organisation ’ s work .
Similarly , I explained the third-party verification of fact-checking organisations that adhere to a code of principles set forth by the International Fact-Checking Network at the Poynter Institute : “ Trustworthiness is reflected in our commitment to non-partisanship and fairness , to transparency of sources of information , to transparency of funding and our organisational details.
” Moy described trust as a collected @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lost .
He remarked that about one in five of us generally trust politicians or journalists to tell the truth : “ That does not mean that we think they lie all the time ; we think they lie enough that it is not sensible to trust them.
” Sargent went beyond institutional trust , observing a rise in the spreading of misinformation within closed trusted groups ( where people feel safe with information that confirms their existing beliefs ) .
Lord Scriven continued on this point , asking for evidence that fact @ @ @ @ @ @ @ minds from irrationality to a more rational view about what is true .
Moy replied by referring to a joint statement between Full Fact , Africa Check , and Chequeado : “ Fact checking doesn ’ t work ( the way you think it does ) ” .
He explained that most fact-checking work is upstream , asking people to correct the record and stop the spread of specific unsubstantiated claims , as well as looking at the causes of bad information and trying to tackle it : “ Fact checkers are not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to believe things that are true .
We are part of the answer to how you give people the opportunity to make up their own minds about what is true and what is not , and to how you challenge people in positions of power and responsibility , when they choose to mislead others or when they accidentally mislead others .
The idea that there is anybody who could sit in some central position , bestow accurate information on the world and be gratefully thanked for it is borderline silly , to be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ crucial part of what we do , ” Moy argued .
Baroness Kidron expressed her interest in the idea of the value chain of information , and wanted to know what set of principles could intermediaries in the chain adhere to that would help to drive a healthier relationship between verified producers and “ hearers ” of information .
I answered with a description of fact checking as explanatory journalism , where the aim is to put claims and facts into a context .
I also suggested that reporters and other outlets with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ care , to cause no harm , in consideration of their selection and coverage of stories .
Sargent responded with a challenge that many newsrooms face in competition for audience and attention , and the fact that anyone can put out their narrative via advertising on online platforms , sometimes without transparency observed in traditional media outlets : “ I am always shocked by how the platforms do not refer to the news industry more frequently , to learn from what it has gone through in terms of how to report , such @ @ @ @ @ @ @ death.
” Here , Moy said that internet companies should provide proportionate responses to real harms , but he didn ’ t think that they are capable of defining where that line is without democratic oversight : “ That is a decision that I would like to see taken with democratic accountability , not just in a corporate situation.
” Lord German asked how our individual organisations ’ connections with government and/or technology companies bring credibility advantages and disadvantages .
Moy replied that there is a chain of credibility in working with top-tier @ @ @ @ @ @ @ provide evidence about how they behave and can be improved , how to communicate effectively in the online world , and in publishing transparency reports about its organisation ’ s work with them .
Full Fact ’ s work with government gives it credibility in explaining how the policy environment affects the internet companies , and likewise with media organisations .
There is a trust relationship among agencies such as the House of Commons Library , the ONS , public information bodies , universities , internet companies , and broadcasters and media outlets @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that collaboration is the only way that we can bring in all these stakeholders , yet as no two governments , news organisations , or media landscapes are the same , principles and guidelines are always evolving .
I added that FactCheckNI is part of a European Commission Horizon 2020 research project , Co-Inform , which is a partnership of universities and research institutions , with our participation as practitioners .
My argument was that credibility comes from those of us fact checking organisations doing the work on the ground , while also @ @ @ @ @ @ @ learning from what has been shown to work elsewhere .
Lord Puttnam asked us if Facebook ’ s partnership with fact-checking organisations works , and whether it should be emulated by other technology companies .
Moy replied that the programme is a valuable measure , particularly in cases of tackling election interference , tackling false information in the aftermath of emergencies , including terrorist attacks , and tackling health misinformation .
Sargent , like Moy , expressed a concern about whether the programme is scalable for the internet , and about the financial @ @ @ @ @ @ @ would like to see a similar effort about accurate reporting .
I shared both concerns , and added one about reputational risk , where the wider public could misassociate a fact-checking organisation as not doing political fact checking ( because Facebook does not apply treatment for political speech ) .
Generally , FactCheckNI is content with its participation in the programme .
There was a pause after Lord Lucas asked us what was the one thing that Government could do to ensure better-informed public debate in the digital age .
Moy replied , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ There is a tendency to see this issue as a problem for which we are looking for a solution.
” Rather , Moy suggested , this is a new area of policy that we will be debating for the next 30 years , discussing balances between free speech and harms : “ The Government are making the mistake of thinking that they can create some kind of statutory duty of care , then outsource all those profound choices to a regulator… ” Moy then applied a Swiss cheese model of accident prevention , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the block of cheese because the holes don ’ t line up .
In the form of being well informed , many surprising steps need to happen : from asking smart questions , good research and evidence gathering , to communicating the information clearly , reaching large audiences who take it all in .
Sargent provided some context , by saying that there may be an equivalent of COBRA for certain moments and that some journalists are exposed to more harassment , threats , and harm from the internet .
So Moy ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ consider legislating little and often , updating legislation as our understanding grows .
I suggested considering synergies among fact-checking organisations , universities , and agencies , in order to promote pathways of good information .
Humpherson asked the committee to think about the Government as a provider of information : “ Spend as much time thinking about what it means to inform as it means to misinform .
”

Asking the right questions for a better-informed public
by Allan LEONARD
28 January 2020
Representing FactCheckNI and as part of a four-person panel, I was invited to give evidence to the UK House of Lords Select Committee on Democracy and Digital Technologies. Fellow witnesses were Ed Humpherson (Director General for Regulation, Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR)), Will Moy (Chief Executive, Full Fact), and Jenni Sargent (Managing Director, First Draft).
This was an extension of the committee’s previous call for written evidence, on the issue of “how representative democracy can be supported, rather than undermined, in a digital world”. The focus is on six key areas:
transparency in political campaigns privacy and anonymity misinformation the effects of digital technologies on public discourse how technology can facilitate democracy the development of effective digital literacy
This session of oral evidence looked at how information providers ensure that information provided to the public, particularly during election campaigns, is reliable and accurate; how information is verified; what are the key challenges facing information providers; and how legislation in this area could help.
The session was live streamed to the public via a webcast, and the following is based on an uncorrected official record.
After introducing ourselves, Baroness McGregor-Smith asked us what effect misinformation — or information disorder — has had on public debate in the UK, our positive actions, and remaining challenges.
Jenni Sargent replied that anybody who wants to disrupt public discourse can utilise online spaces to shift the narrative, based on how they want people to perceive information. Her organisation, First Draft, is trying to raise awareness of such tactics. Ed Humpherson said that the velocity of bad information can drive out the good, and a role of the statistics authority is to provide a reliable, impartial evidence base. I emphasised the value of critical thinking and to have people think for themselves. Will Moy said that bad information can ruin lives — damaging people’s health, promoting hate, and hurting democracy. But not all bad information does this, he added; there is a spectrum of experiences and some are more consequential than others. To help tackle real harms from bad information, Moy argued that there are a lot of building blocks in place — such as a respected and trusted public service broadcaster, freedom of speech, maintaining standards in public life; the challenge is to move these into the world we live in now.
Baroness McGregor-Smith also asked all of us what we would do individually, personally, in fact checking a claim. Humpherson replied “going the extra click” to see what sits behind a claim; I replied that one of our research projects (Co-Inform) has the motto, “think, check, share”. Moy provided the three questions contained in Full Fact’s and FactCheckNI’s toolkit: (1) where has the claim come from? (2) what does the claim really mean? and (3) how does the claim make you feel? Likewise, Sargent said that she will check the motivation of the claim and then apply verification skills to track down the source.
Lord Lucas asked whether there is scope to have a curated set of uncontested information on national questions, to help focus debate. Moy answered “yes”, citing the House of Commons and House of Lords Libraries, as well as the Office of National Statistics. But, he added, the challenge is translating that quality of impartial research and analysis for a general audience. I gave the example of the Northern Ireland Statistics Research Agency (NISRA) curating its data products into themed presentations, such as on migration. Humpherson endorsed this NI: IN PROFILE product. He also informed the committee that at the OSR sees itself as serving a much bigger public debate, “which often requires a more accessible, coherent, and linked-up way of presenting information”. Sargent reminded everyone that when someone searches a topic online, they are not presented with any indicators of the credibility of the search results: “It’s an open goal for anyone looking to drive a different narrative.”
Baroness Morris queried whether we can really expect every member of the public to develop fact-checking skills and apply them with every claim they come across. Sargent’s response was that there are tactics being used by those purposefully spreading disinformation, and that platforms and publishers have a responsibility to provide indicators of credibility, like we see with a newsprint font of the colour of the Financial Times. I replied that a lot of this comes down to trust, “which is a difficult thing to achieve and standardise”. I also made a distinction between claims that are made in public and microtargeting. For claims made in public and broadcast publicly, media literacy, general awareness, and fact-checking organisations can respond very promptly. Resolving the issue of microtargeting political adverts, for example, education on its own is not going to resolve it; software solutions could play a role. Moy made a case for putting the topic in perspective; the goal should be to reduce harm from false and misleading information by taking proportionate steps. The challenge, he added, is to find the once sentence of advice that we could tell everyone to think about, like the public safety campaign, “stop, look, and listen”; it might be “take the next click”. Moy also complimented the coordinating role that Ofcom is attempting, particularly with its Making Sense of Media programme. Yet the UK Department for Education does not appear to be actively involved in such work, which Baroness McGregor-Smith noted and will feed back to the department, where she is a non-executive director.
Lord Holmes asked what are the characteristics of information that achieves public trust, and how can we ensure that the public can differentiate between legitimate and illegitimate sources of information. Humpherson replied that it is a mistake to regard statistics as just numbers: “They are numbers with a social life; they exist in context.” He explained the three pillars of trustworthiness, quality, and value that underpins his organisation’s work. Similarly, I explained the third-party verification of fact-checking organisations that adhere to a code of principles set forth by the International Fact-Checking Network at the Poynter Institute: “Trustworthiness is reflected in our commitment to non-partisanship and fairness, to transparency of sources of information, to transparency of funding and our organisational details.” Moy described trust as a collected set of experiences and can be easily lost. He remarked that about one in five of us generally trust politicians or journalists to tell the truth: “That does not mean that we think they lie all the time; we think they lie enough that it is not sensible to trust them.” Sargent went beyond institutional trust, observing a rise in the spreading of misinformation within closed trusted groups (where people feel safe with information that confirms their existing beliefs).
Lord Scriven continued on this point, asking for evidence that fact checking works in changing people’s minds from irrationality to a more rational view about what is true. Moy replied by referring to a joint statement between Full Fact, Africa Check, and Chequeado: “Fact checking doesn’t work (the way you think it does)”. He explained that most fact-checking work is upstream, asking people to correct the record and stop the spread of specific unsubstantiated claims, as well as looking at the causes of bad information and trying to tackle it:
“Fact checkers are not the answer to how to get everybody to believe things that are true. We are part of the answer to how you give people the opportunity to make up their own minds about what is true and what is not, and to how you challenge people in positions of power and responsibility, when they choose to mislead others or when they accidentally mislead others. The idea that there is anybody who could sit in some central position, bestow accurate information on the world and be gratefully thanked for it is borderline silly, to be honest … The accountability function is a crucial part of what we do,” Moy argued.
Baroness Kidron expressed her interest in the idea of the value chain of information, and wanted to know what set of principles could intermediaries in the chain adhere to that would help to drive a healthier relationship between verified producers and “hearers” of information. I answered with a description of fact checking as explanatory journalism, where the aim is to put claims and facts into a context. I also suggested that reporters and other outlets with editorial guidelines could include a duty of care, to cause no harm, in consideration of their selection and coverage of stories. Sargent responded with a challenge that many newsrooms face in competition for audience and attention, and the fact that anyone can put out their narrative via advertising on online platforms, sometimes without transparency observed in traditional media outlets: “I am always shocked by how the platforms do not refer to the news industry more frequently, to learn from what it has gone through in terms of how to report, such as whether to show the moment of death.” Here, Moy said that internet companies should provide proportionate responses to real harms, but he didn’t think that they are capable of defining where that line is without democratic oversight: “That is a decision that I would like to see taken with democratic accountability, not just in a corporate situation.”
Lord German asked how our individual organisations’ connections with government and/or technology companies bring credibility advantages and disadvantages. Moy replied that there is a chain of credibility in working with top-tier internet companies, from being able to provide evidence about how they behave and can be improved, how to communicate effectively in the online world, and in publishing transparency reports about its organisation’s work with them. Full Fact’s work with government gives it credibility in explaining how the policy environment affects the internet companies, and likewise with media organisations. There is a trust relationship among agencies such as the House of Commons Library, the ONS, public information bodies, universities, internet companies, and broadcasters and media outlets. Sargent enhanced this argument by saying that collaboration is the only way that we can bring in all these stakeholders, yet as no two governments, news organisations, or media landscapes are the same, principles and guidelines are always evolving. I added that FactCheckNI is part of a European Commission Horizon 2020 research project, Co-Inform, which is a partnership of universities and research institutions, with our participation as practitioners. My argument was that credibility comes from those of us fact checking organisations doing the work on the ground, while also drawing from the global fact-checking community and learning from what has been shown to work elsewhere.
Lord Puttnam asked us if Facebook’s partnership with fact-checking organisations works, and whether it should be emulated by other technology companies. Moy replied that the programme is a valuable measure, particularly in cases of tackling election interference, tackling false information in the aftermath of emergencies, including terrorist attacks, and tackling health misinformation. Sargent, like Moy, expressed a concern about whether the programme is scalable for the internet, and about the financial incentive to publish fact checks; she would like to see a similar effort about accurate reporting. I shared both concerns, and added one about reputational risk, where the wider public could misassociate a fact-checking organisation as not doing political fact checking (because Facebook does not apply treatment for political speech). Generally, FactCheckNI is content with its participation in the programme.
There was a pause after Lord Lucas asked us what was the one thing that Government could do to ensure better-informed public debate in the digital age. Moy replied, “It is the wrong question … There is a tendency to see this issue as a problem for which we are looking for a solution.” Rather, Moy suggested, this is a new area of policy that we will be debating for the next 30 years, discussing balances between free speech and harms: “The Government are making the mistake of thinking that they can create some kind of statutory duty of care, then outsource all those profound choices to a regulator…” Moy then applied a Swiss cheese model of accident prevention, where you can’t see through the block of cheese because the holes don’t line up. In the form of being well informed, many surprising steps need to happen: from asking smart questions, good research and evidence gathering, to communicating the information clearly, reaching large audiences who take it all in. Sargent provided some context, by saying that there may be an equivalent of COBRA for certain moments and that some journalists are exposed to more harassment, threats, and harm from the internet. So Moy’s proposal to the committee was to consider legislating little and often, updating legislation as our understanding grows. I suggested considering synergies among fact-checking organisations, universities, and agencies, in order to promote pathways of good information. Humpherson asked the committee to think about the Government as a provider of information: “Spend as much time thinking about what it means to inform as it means to misinform.”
VIDEO
Source: Parliamentlive.tv (Terms & Conditions)
Originally published at Mr Ulster.


sluggerotoole--2020-03-30--Covid-19: the view from New York City…

Covid-19: the view from New York City…

A few days ago I did something unprecedented ( for me ) because we are living in unprecedented times , and I wrote a comment on Slugger .
As an ex-pat living outside my hometown of Belfast since 1996 or thereabouts , and a resident of New York City since 2002 , I ’ ve been an avid reader for years but it ’ s never been in my constitutional makeup to get involved in BTL discussions on any online forum .
Whilst it can be enlightening and informative , have-your-say commentary seems to me oftentimes prone to deteriorate into @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to use a technical term .
Many news media on both sides of the pond have decommissioned BTL comments for fear of defamation actions .
However , my comment was not on one of Slugger ’ s favourite discourse topics , namely The Dreaded Constitutional Question , but rather on the actual horror that we are watching unfold before our eyes even as I type : the Covid-19 pandemic .
A couple of people suggested I might want to pen a longer contribution from my perspective in NYC and to be honest I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ recuperating from what is very probably a dose of the very same virus-du-jour ( more on that below ) but also because , unlike commenting , prevaricating is very much in my constitutional makeup .
However a few new developments here in NYC and State have shocked me so much , even after everything that has already transpired , I thought I might follow through after all .
If you didn ’ t see the original comment , I ’ ll paraphrase and expand upon it here by way of background and updated @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I started , which was with a plea to everyone back in Ireland ( both parts ) to take the Covid-19 health precautions and warnings very seriously , which from what I am seeing in the news , you are .
I had quoted some statistics on infection and death rates in New York City and State , which now only three days ( !
!
! )
later I have to substantially and upwardly revise .
To put this in context , two weeks ago I was still commuting to work from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Bars , cafes , restaurants , and shops were all open .
The sidewalks were as packed as ever .
We were aware something was going on and maybe used a little extra hand sanitizer .
Admittedly , anyone on the train or the street wearing a mask or gloves was looked on with not a little derision , but the platforms , stations , and trains quickly began to empty and with no trace of irony the bars were suddenly ordered closed on Saint Patrick ’ s Day .
Next , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ staff rotation and flexible working times to reduce contact with large groups of people .
People considered “ at-risk ” were sent home .
I thought I was being fairly careful , washing my hands regularly , elbow-bumping friends instead of hugging or shaking hands , easily avoiding crowds when walking in the local park with my dog , but nevertheless I got sick and was told to stay at home alone for 14 days .
I ’ ll spare the details about my illness ( I didn ’ t get tested , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ very bad man-flu plus the worst hangover ever with not enough strength to leave bed for days on end and shortness of breath .
I immediately had to foster my dog out to some friends because I was unable to care for her .
After a week to 10 days I seem to be gradually on the mend , but still missing the pup and physical human contact .
And now for some frankly frightening stats which I have gleaned from various ( reliable ) news and government sources : As I understand @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 30th here in New York City we were approaching 800 recorded deaths ; about 2 weeks ago I believe the figure was zero .
When I wrote my comment 2 or 3 days ago it was 500 .
There are over 60,000 confirmed infection cases across NY State , with 35,000 and counting of those here in the City ( NYC population 8+ million , with all-Ireland ’ s population about 7 million by way of comparison ) .
It ’ s generally acknowledged that there are vastly more uncounted cases because so @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are being told to self-isolate and only call 911 ( aka 999 ) for help if you are in a truly “ dire situation ” .
My primary care doctor is offering online consultations only .
The visuals are straight out of a dystopian episode of Black Mirror .
I mentioned in my comment that the enormous Javits Exhibition Center in Manhattan ( imagine a 170,000 square metre version of the Kings Hall ) has been converted into an emergency hospital by the US Army Corps of Engineers with an almost 3,000 bed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ huge hospital warship into New York Harbour to relieve the strain , it arrived on Monday morning ( see photo my friend took stuck in her 40th floor apartment ) .
In scenes increasingly replicated across the world , the streets remain eerily empty and quiet except for the disconcerting and never-ending sound of ambulance sirens .
There are refrigerated trucks parked outside some of the finest hospitals in NYC for use as morgues .
Pictures of the dead stacked in body-bags are beginning to be leaked by nurses online .
Hospitals are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ zone ” .
I could go on… My point is that most of this really only escalated quickly in the last fortnight or so , but that we were in all likelihood carrying and sharing the virus for weeks beforehand .
People are revisiting that “ mysterious ” flu they had back in February .
It doesn ’ t matter who or what is to blame [ feel free to insert name of 45th president here if so inclined ] but this is actually happening and people from every background , including healthcare @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is taking out young and old alike ; I don ’ t have the source to hand but yesterday it was reported that 40 % of hospitalizations are in the 20 to 50 age group .
And finally , as if exhibition centres and warships as hospitals were not shocking enough , on Sunday construction began on a tent field-hospital right in Central Park on the Upper East Side .
It ’ s the work of a benevolent Christian organization , so I imagine it ’ ll be like M.A.S.H .
minus the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ richest city in the world !
I ’ m writing from the perspective of a Brooklynite ; the worsening national situation is well documented elsewhere .
The subject of divisive and bipartisan politics , Federal versus State government , and the pros and cons US health-care system would fill another article or ten , so I ’ ll leave it there for now .
I have close family both on the front-line and in the full-time care of the esteemed but beleaguered NHS so I am watching developments “ back home ” closely @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for morgues in army bases near Belfast and make-shift hospital preparations in the Titanic Quarter .
Sounds uncannily familiar .
For your own sake , your loved ones , and for that of all the health and emergency response workers and volunteers out there , stay home if you can , stay safe if you can ’ t , and wash your hands !

A few days ago I did something unprecedented (for me) because we are living in unprecedented times, and I wrote a comment on Slugger. As an ex-pat living outside my hometown of Belfast since 1996 or thereabouts, and a resident of New York City since 2002, I’ve been an avid reader for years but it’s never been in my constitutional makeup to get involved in BTL discussions on any online forum. Whilst it can be enlightening and informative, have-your-say commentary seems to me oftentimes prone to deteriorate into a bit of a slagging match, to use a technical term. Many news media on both sides of the pond have decommissioned BTL comments for fear of defamation actions. However, my comment was not on one of Slugger’s favourite discourse topics, namely The Dreaded Constitutional Question, but rather on the actual horror that we are watching unfold before our eyes even as I type: the Covid-19 pandemic. A couple of people suggested I might want to pen a longer contribution from my perspective in NYC and to be honest I prevaricated, firstly because I am still recuperating from what is very probably a dose of the very same virus-du-jour (more on that below) but also because, unlike commenting, prevaricating is very much in my constitutional makeup.
However a few new developments here in NYC and State have shocked me so much, even after everything that has already transpired, I thought I might follow through after all. If you didn’t see the original comment, I’ll paraphrase and expand upon it here by way of background and updated information.
I’ll begin where I started, which was with a plea to everyone back in Ireland (both parts) to take the Covid-19 health precautions and warnings very seriously, which from what I am seeing in the news, you are. I had quoted some statistics on infection and death rates in New York City and State, which now only three days (!!!) later I have to substantially and upwardly revise.
To put this in context, two weeks ago I was still commuting to work from Brooklyn into midtown Manhattan on the subway. Bars, cafes, restaurants, and shops were all open. The sidewalks were as packed as ever. We were aware something was going on and maybe used a little extra hand sanitizer. Admittedly, anyone on the train or the street wearing a mask or gloves was looked on with not a little derision, but the platforms, stations, and trains quickly began to empty and with no trace of irony the bars were suddenly ordered closed on Saint Patrick’s Day. Next, my office went into a 1-in-3 day staff rotation and flexible working times to reduce contact with large groups of people. People considered “at-risk” were sent home.
I thought I was being fairly careful, washing my hands regularly, elbow-bumping friends instead of hugging or shaking hands, easily avoiding crowds when walking in the local park with my dog, but nevertheless I got sick and was told to stay at home alone for 14 days. I’ll spare the details about my illness (I didn’t get tested, see below) but just imagine a very bad man-flu plus the worst hangover ever with not enough strength to leave bed for days on end and shortness of breath. I immediately had to foster my dog out to some friends because I was unable to care for her. After a week to 10 days I seem to be gradually on the mend, but still missing the pup and physical human contact. And now for some frankly frightening stats which I have gleaned from various (reliable) news and government sources:
As I understand it, as of Monday morning March 30th here in New York City we were approaching 800 recorded deaths; about 2 weeks ago I believe the figure was zero. When I wrote my comment 2 or 3 days ago it was 500. There are over 60,000 confirmed infection cases across NY State, with 35,000 and counting of those here in the City (NYC population 8+ million, with all-Ireland’s population about 7 million by way of comparison). It’s generally acknowledged that there are vastly more uncounted cases because so many people cannot get tested and are being told to self-isolate and only call 911 (aka 999) for help if you are in a truly “dire situation”. My primary care doctor is offering online consultations only.
The visuals are straight out of a dystopian episode of Black Mirror. I mentioned in my comment that the enormous Javits Exhibition Center in Manhattan (imagine a 170,000 square metre version of the Kings Hall) has been converted into an emergency hospital by the US Army Corps of Engineers with an almost 3,000 bed capacity. The US Navy sent a huge hospital warship into New York Harbour to relieve the strain, it arrived on Monday morning (see photo my friend took stuck in her 40th floor apartment). In scenes increasingly replicated across the world, the streets remain eerily empty and quiet except for the disconcerting and never-ending sound of ambulance sirens. There are refrigerated trucks parked outside some of the finest hospitals in NYC for use as morgues. Pictures of the dead stacked in body-bags are beginning to be leaked by nurses online. Hospitals are describing the situation as a “war zone”. I could go on…
My point is that most of this really only escalated quickly in the last fortnight or so, but that we were in all likelihood carrying and sharing the virus for weeks beforehand. People are revisiting that “mysterious” flu they had back in February. It doesn’t matter who or what is to blame [feel free to insert name of 45th president here if so inclined] but this is actually happening and people from every background, including healthcare workers, are dying. The virus is taking out young and old alike; I don’t have the source to hand but yesterday it was reported that 40% of hospitalizations are in the 20 to 50 age group.
And finally, as if exhibition centres and warships as hospitals were not shocking enough, on Sunday construction began on a tent field-hospital right in Central Park on the Upper East Side. It’s the work of a benevolent Christian organization, so I imagine it’ll be like M.A.S.H. minus the moonshine. All of this in the richest city in the world!
I’m writing from the perspective of a Brooklynite; the worsening national situation is well documented elsewhere. The subject of divisive and bipartisan politics, Federal versus State government, and the pros and cons US health-care system would fill another article or ten, so I’ll leave it there for now. I have close family both on the front-line and in the full-time care of the esteemed but beleaguered NHS so I am watching developments “back home” closely. I’m hearing of preparation for morgues in army bases near Belfast and make-shift hospital preparations in the Titanic Quarter. Sounds uncannily familiar. For your own sake, your loved ones, and for that of all the health and emergency response workers and volunteers out there, stay home if you can, stay safe if you can’t, and wash your hands!


sluggerotoole--2020-03-30--Would all nationalists vote for a new Ireland?

As discussion of a border poll has risen within the wider nationalist community , the debate about what would be needed to accommodate all identities in a new Ireland has barely begun .
Devolution would be essential for health , education and policing immediately after a unity vote .
With the need to align tax , currency , welfare and infrastructure , health and education are billion £ departments that would not be prioritized by the Dáil in the short term .
Tax and welfare policy would impact the whole island , but decisions on the NHS or education would @ @ @ @ @ @ @ would help to steer the timing and degree of alignment .
You could appoint a quango / Tsar or a Dáil Committee or direct rule minister from Dublin , but many would prefer to have local political accountability .
When people ask what happens to the NHS after a unity vote , the answer might be that day-to-day management and funding methods remain under local control , subject to financial oversight by the Dáil , while investment decisions , e.g .
on centres of excellence , are taken on an all-island basis .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ step up human capital formation at the same time that it needs to rationalize waste and duplication in schools .
That is not an all-island issue and needs dedicated focus .
Other competencies might transition to a 32 county polity relatively quickly , albeit the PSNI might remain in situ for years , but ongoing policy needs in health and education could take decades to align .
To make a new regional assembly accountable , a civic forum might propose ditching d ’ Hondt in favour of voluntary cross-community coalition with an opposition @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has to be collective cabinet responsibility for decisions .
They would certainly seek ways to avoid frivolous vetoes .
Beyond the practical need for devolution in the short to medium term , a civic forum might also consider that a regional assembly is important to give political and cultural space to distinct identities .
For Ulster Nationalists the Dáil might be as remote as Westminster or Brussels , not necessarily hostile but not their home , at least not yet .
Ultimately health and education could become closely aligned .
A civic forum @ @ @ @ @ @ @ boundary of the regional assembly felt it had reached its sell-by date , they should have the right in a weighted majority vote to dissolve it .
Alternatively if other counties in Ulster wanted to join the assembly , there could be constitutional latitude for them to have a plebiscite ( thinking particularly of Donegal ) .

As discussion of a border poll has risen within the wider nationalist community, the debate about what would be needed to accommodate all identities in a new Ireland has barely begun.
Devolution would be essential for health, education and policing immediately after a unity vote. With the need to align tax, currency, welfare and infrastructure, health and education are billion £ departments that would not be prioritized by the Dáil in the short term. Tax and welfare policy would impact the whole island, but decisions on the NHS or education would impact NI particularly. Ideally local people would help to steer the timing and degree of alignment.
You could appoint a quango / Tsar or a Dáil Committee or direct rule minister from Dublin, but many would prefer to have local political accountability. When people ask what happens to the NHS after a unity vote, the answer might be that day-to-day management and funding methods remain under local control, subject to financial oversight by the Dáil, while investment decisions, e.g. on centres of excellence, are taken on an all-island basis.
Similarly NI has a pressing need to step up human capital formation at the same time that it needs to rationalize waste and duplication in schools. That is not an all-island issue and needs dedicated focus. Other competencies might transition to a 32 county polity relatively quickly, albeit the PSNI might remain in situ for years, but ongoing policy needs in health and education could take decades to align.
To make a new regional assembly accountable, a civic forum might propose ditching d’Hondt in favour of voluntary cross-community coalition with an opposition bench, on the basis that there has to be collective cabinet responsibility for decisions. They would certainly seek ways to avoid frivolous vetoes.
Beyond the practical need for devolution in the short to medium term, a civic forum might also consider that a regional assembly is important to give political and cultural space to distinct identities. For Ulster Nationalists the Dáil might be as remote as Westminster or Brussels, not necessarily hostile but not their home, at least not yet.
Ultimately health and education could become closely aligned. A civic forum could propose that if people within the boundary of the regional assembly felt it had reached its sell-by date, they should have the right in a weighted majority vote to dissolve it. Alternatively if other counties in Ulster wanted to join the assembly, there could be constitutional latitude for them to have a plebiscite (thinking particularly of Donegal).


sluggerotoole--2020-03-30--COVID19 Spread In Both Irelands, the UK and Selected Countries: Good News Down South; Bad News Up No

COVID19 Spread In Both Irelands, the UK and Selected Countries: Good News Down South; Bad News Up North

Northern Ireland : Deaths per million curve steepens .
New cases getting closer to the Southern new cases .
Total cases appears to be doubling roughly every 4 days now .
Republic of Ireland : New cases ( 200 ) only very slightly above new cases 10 days ago ( 190 ) .
New cases drop : the lowest number of new cases for six days .
None of the other countries on these graphs have had a 10-day ‘ stasis ’ and then returned to steepening behaviour .
Could we be on a 6-day plateau , or a calm @ @ @ @ @ @ @ curve has a slight shallowing .
Total cases appears to be doubling roughly every 4 days now .
Logarithmic best-fit suggests 4,540 cases after 100 days ( 365 more than yesterday ) .
Recovery rate very low : recovered persons take a while to recover , whereas , sadly , many deaths have come more quickly .
The recovery rate should increase relatively sharply after another week .
The question is : will the Republic of Ireland follow Italy or China / South Korea ?
New Graph : There are two significant differences @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to the COVID19 outbreak .
Firstly , the Irish government has kept very close to the WHO recommendations on COVID19 prevention and public health measures , and has acted in concert with its EU partners .
By contrast , the UK has travelled a different pathway with , for example , significantly less testing .
This has caused strains in the Northern Ireland Executive where , for example , Dublin-phile parties were calling for school shutdowns while London-phile parties followed Boris Johnson ’ s approach .
Secondly , the health system in both @ @ @ @ @ @ @ HSE and NHS both prove up to the task , or will one system prove its relative superiority ?
The new graph “ Deaths in Ireland ” may help us answer one or both of these questions .
( It should be appreciated that other factors such as average life expectancy , age demographic profile and degree of urbanisation will also impact on the death rates . )
for stats and charts see my website : http : //mysql02.comp.dkit.ie/mcguinnp/covid19/ “ kelly salon ” by susanjanegolding is licensed under CC BY

Northern Ireland: Deaths per million curve steepens. New cases getting closer to the Southern new cases. Total cases appears to be doubling roughly every 4 days now.
Republic of Ireland: New cases (200) only very slightly above new cases 10 days ago (190). New cases drop: the lowest number of new cases for six days. None of the other countries on these graphs have had a 10-day ‘stasis’ and then returned to steepening behaviour. Could we be on a 6-day plateau, or a calm before the storm? Deaths per million curve has a slight shallowing. Total cases appears to be doubling roughly every 4 days now. Logarithmic best-fit suggests 4,540 cases after 100 days (365 more than yesterday). Recovery rate very low: recovered persons take a while to recover, whereas, sadly, many deaths have come more quickly. The recovery rate should increase relatively sharply after another week. The question is: will the Republic of Ireland follow Italy or China / South Korea?
New Graph: There are two significant differences between the two Irish jurisdictions in relation to the COVID19 outbreak. Firstly, the Irish government has kept very close to the WHO recommendations on COVID19 prevention and public health measures, and has acted in concert with its EU partners. By contrast, the UK has travelled a different pathway with, for example, significantly less testing. This has caused strains in the Northern Ireland Executive where, for example, Dublin-phile parties were calling for school shutdowns while London-phile parties followed Boris Johnson’s approach. Secondly, the health system in both jurisdictions is quite different. Will the HSE and NHS both prove up to the task, or will one system prove its relative superiority? The new graph “Deaths in Ireland” may help us answer one or both of these questions. (It should be appreciated that other factors such as average life expectancy, age demographic profile and degree of urbanisation will also impact on the death rates.)
for stats and charts see my website: http://mysql02.comp.dkit.ie/mcguinnp/covid19/
“kelly salon” by susanjanegolding is licensed under CC BY


sluggerotoole--2020-03-30--Fergus on Monday: End Times

Fergus on Monday: End Times

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sluggerotoole--2020-03-29--Covid-19 has struck at the heart of what it is that makes us human..

Previously unknown terms such as social-distancing and self-isolation are now a painful reality for us all .
In order to stop the spread of this disease we have been asked to stay away from all other humans outside our family units ; the human touch has become dangerous .
My friends aren ’ t coping well with the ‘ new normal.
’ My phone is laden with messages .
People are freaking out , not just because of co-vid 19 , but because they ’ re alone .
They ’ re used to the presence of people , of chat @ @ @ @ @ @ @ around the water cooler .
Now , in this new ‘ work from home ’ culture all they have is themselves .
I understand .
I get it ; it ’ s a sharp , shock to their sociable systems .
It ’ s been proven that isolation has a physical effect on the brain ; it increases anxiety and ironically makes us more vulnerable to disease .
The power of touch realises oxytocin ; medicine for our soul .
Perhaps my need for this particular kind of medicine is lower than most @ @ @ @ @ @ @ when I headlock my dog and profess my daily undying love ?
Either way , now that everyone is isolating with me it ’ s starting to feel overcrowded !
My two children are off school and my husband is schlepping about the house too .
I have more people around me , not less !
Like a lot of self-employed I am used to my own company and having my own timetable for the day .
As a script editor I need silence to read and compile notes .
In my spare @ @ @ @ @ @ @ exist on silence , except for the sound of the dog snoring like a drunk , at my feet .
I turn off my phone , disconnect the internet and try to put words on the screen .
For years the first person I spoke to in a day would have been whichever child I picked up first from school or childcare .
Friends would look at me in wonder , ‘ so you just sit there by yourself ?
I couldn ’ t do that.
’ Well now , they ’ ve @ @ @ @ @ @ @ If you asked someone who knows me they ’ d say I was friendly , social , gregarious , even .
I have a wide and wonderful circle of amazing girlfriends .
I love nothing more than a night out with them , or a stolen weekend away .
They have big jobs , important jobs in the real world .
Usually , they ’ re busy in those lives and they don ’ t notice my normal solitude , but with social life halted they ’ re ‘ zooming ’ and group @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to notice my silence .
How do I explain to my friends that I feel overwhelmed by the messages , that when people are ‘ coming together ’ I feel I need to take a step back from the chatter ?
My usual self-isolation has gone .
There ’ s people around me all the time .
Suddenly I ’ m a teacher , a 24×7 chef , a personal trainer , an enforcer of rules , entertainer , crafter and therapist to a husband with a business crumbling around him .
Words @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ m more sensitized to it than most .
The language around the virus is alarming .
‘ High Risk ’ ‘ death toll ’ ‘ isolate ’ ‘ lockdown.
’ These words have an effect on us , like the soundtrack of a movie , carefully composed to heighten moments of emotion .
The co-vid 19 headlines are sending fear and panic straight through us .
People are social distancing like spooked horses .
No other pedestrian has met my eye in over a week so wary are we that the virus @ @ @ @ @ @ @ or vice versa .
When all this is over how long will it take us to unlearn all the distancing ?
Will we always panic when we hear a cough ?
Life is unrecognisable to the one we all enjoyed , even a few weeks ago .
It may never be the same again , or at least we ’ re told not for a considerable time .
We have to adapt to survive , but I hope on the other side we can disengage ourselves from survival and remember how to live @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sit close to another and look into their eyes , or hold their hand , is the best kind of medicine there is .
These days feel stranger than fiction , at the end , I hope we can remember what makes us human .
Photo by congerdesign is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA

Previously unknown terms such as social-distancing and self-isolation are now a painful reality for us all. In order to stop the spread of this disease we have been asked to stay away from all other humans outside our family units; the human touch has become dangerous.
My friends aren’t coping well with the ‘new normal.’ My phone is laden with messages. People are freaking out, not just because of co-vid 19, but because they’re alone. They’re used to the presence of people, of chat, of being one of the herd around the water cooler. Now, in this new ‘work from home’ culture all they have is themselves. I understand. I get it; it’s a sharp, shock to their sociable systems. It’s been proven that isolation has a physical effect on the brain; it increases anxiety and ironically makes us more vulnerable to disease. The power of touch realises oxytocin; medicine for our soul. Perhaps my need for this particular kind of medicine is lower than most, or perhaps I get my dose when I headlock my dog and profess my daily undying love? Either way, now that everyone is isolating with me it’s starting to feel overcrowded! My two children are off school and my husband is schlepping about the house too. I have more people around me, not less!
Like a lot of self-employed I am used to my own company and having my own timetable for the day. As a script editor I need silence to read and compile notes. In my spare time I write fiction. I basically exist on silence, except for the sound of the dog snoring like a drunk, at my feet. I turn off my phone, disconnect the internet and try to put words on the screen. For years the first person I spoke to in a day would have been whichever child I picked up first from school or childcare. Friends would look at me in wonder, ‘so you just sit there by yourself? I couldn’t do that.’ Well now, they’ve got to. We all do.
If you asked someone who knows me they’d say I was friendly, social, gregarious, even. I have a wide and wonderful circle of amazing girlfriends. I love nothing more than a night out with them, or a stolen weekend away. They have big jobs, important jobs in the real world. Usually, they’re busy in those lives and they don’t notice my normal solitude, but with social life halted they’re ‘zooming’ and group chatting non-stop and they’re starting to notice my silence. How do I explain to my friends that I feel overwhelmed by the messages, that when people are ‘coming together’ I feel I need to take a step back from the chatter? My usual self-isolation has gone. There’s people around me all the time. Suddenly I’m a teacher, a 24×7 chef, a personal trainer, an enforcer of rules, entertainer, crafter and therapist to a husband with a business crumbling around him.
Words and language are my thing, I’m more sensitized to it than most. The language around the virus is alarming. ‘High Risk’ ‘death toll’ ‘isolate’ ‘lockdown.’ These words have an effect on us, like the soundtrack of a movie, carefully composed to heighten moments of emotion. The co-vid 19 headlines are sending fear and panic straight through us. People are social distancing like spooked horses. No other pedestrian has met my eye in over a week so wary are we that the virus might leap from me to them, or vice versa. When all this is over how long will it take us to unlearn all the distancing? Will we always panic when we hear a cough? Life is unrecognisable to the one we all enjoyed, even a few weeks ago. It may never be the same again, or at least we’re told not for a considerable time. We have to adapt to survive, but I hope on the other side we can disengage ourselves from survival and remember how to live. I hope we remember that to sit close to another and look into their eyes, or hold their hand, is the best kind of medicine there is. These days feel stranger than fiction, at the end, I hope we can remember what makes us human.
Photo by congerdesign is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA


sluggerotoole--2020-03-29--Varadkar is having a good crisis. This it seems, is not the time to object.

The Republic are doing things a little differently : joining an EU initiative to procure much needed ventilators , sending an Aer Lingus plane to China for hospital workers ’ PPE ; the Gardai Commissioner calling for people in the streets to produce IDs , off licences to stay open in contrast with GB .
The North at first followed the GB rules but has now fallen into line with the south .
The consequences if the northern ban remained in force if a hard Prohibition border had been introduced don ’ t bear thinking about .
As far as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has been maintained over the formation of a new government .
Despite the corona virus crisis the problem seems chronic .
Fianna Fail and Fine Gael between them are effectively eight votes short of a majority and the Greens and Labour are refusing to deal with them .
Sinn Fein are still beyond the pale and are self isolating themselves from government formation anyway .
The two traditional parties of government were reported as close to agreeing a programme for government for five years .
This is simply not credible .
In the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ We don ’ t know what Covid-19 will do to our economy , one thing is certain : it ’ s going to cost us , maybe up to €20bn .
Last week the Economic and Social Research Institute projected Ireland would fall into recession this year , with the economy contracting by 7.1 % , compared with 5.5 % growth in 2019 .
The think tank gave a grim summary of its vision for the next few months : consumption , investment and net trade would all fall sharply ; households would @ @ @ @ @ @ @ postpone investment ; and external demand for Irish goods and services would fall .
In this new , poorer Ireland , Sinn Fein ’ s plan to spend €6.5bn on housing will not be possible .
There will be no pension increases from Fianna Fail , or tax cuts from Fine Gael .
The central policy planks of all the party manifestos are null and void .
They will not be able to implement the plans for which they received a mandate , and they have no mandate for the measures that must @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Micheál Martin went close to acknowledging this in the Dail last week , when he warned tough decisions would have to be taken by the next government .
“ The choices will be very different from those we were discussing until recently , ” he said .
When this is all over , there will be a new urgency for radical policies to fix our broken health system , and never again leave ourselves so exposed .
On housing , too , there will be a change in attitude .
Having argued for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is unconstitutional , the government introduced one last week .
Having resisted banning evictions to prevent families becoming homeless , the government put in place just such a ban .
The excuses we have heard from successive administrations about why things can not be done will not be tolerated any more .
The far-reaching legislation that passed through the Dail last Thursday demonstrated just what can be done , when the political will is there .
There will also be a shift in the national psyche .
Many people who voted for “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ now seeking safety and security .
… What authority do any of the political parties have to make the tough choices ahead ?
A government is supposed to implement the will of the people , but we don ’ t know now what that is .
There will be many different strategies available to deal with the impending recession .
For example , should we borrow extensively , or introduce a short , sharp shock of austerity ?
No doubt Sinn Fein and Fine Gael would advocate different paths .
Don ’ t @ @ @ @ @ @ @ which plan is chosen ?
The analysis is good but her remedy for a new general election is unfeasible during lockdown or even under any conceivable medium term relaxation of its grip .
So we are left with the problem .
There seems to be no appetite for an all- party national government .
The choice therefore seems to be between a minority Fianna Fail/ Fine Gael emergency coalition seeking extra support from independents and anybody willing , legislating case by case when necessary for at least three if not six months ; @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The emergency legislation ’ s smooth passage sets an encouraging precedent .
Plainly this situation benefits Fine Gael enormously .
but it must be creating deep unease inside Fianna Fail and even Sinn Fein .
Leo Varadkar won high praise for his TV speech last week– an easy enough gesture indeed but important at a time when people are looking for confident leadership .
Now the latest poll looks good for Fine Gael the smallest of the top three parties but the one still leading the government .
A Business Post/Red C @ @ @ @ @ @ @ back out in front , harnessing 34 % of support among the 1,000 participants of the poll – an increase of 13 % on the election result .
Sinn Féin is sitting on 28 % of support – up 3 % – according to the poll , while Fianna Fáil has experienced a drop in support to 18 % .
It ’ s really weird .
Nobody seems to mind .
Or if they do , none dare say so .

The Republic are doing things a little differently: joining an EU initiative to procure much needed ventilators, sending an Aer Lingus plane to China for hospital workers’ PPE; the Gardai Commissioner calling for people in the streets to produce IDs, off licences to stay open in contrast with GB. The North at first followed the GB rules but has now fallen into line with the south. The consequences if the northern ban remained in force if a hard Prohibition border had been introduced don’t bear thinking about.
As far as I can judge an eerie near silence has been maintained over the formation of a new government. Despite the corona virus crisis the problem seems chronic. Fianna Fail and Fine Gael between them are effectively eight votes short of a majority and the Greens and Labour are refusing to deal with them. Sinn Fein are still beyond the pale and are self isolating themselves from government formation anyway. The two traditional parties of government were reported as close to agreeing a programme for government for five years. This is simply not credible.
In the Sunday Times Sarah McInerney cogently explains why
We don’t know what Covid-19 will do to our economy, one thing is certain: it’s going to cost us, maybe up to €20bn. Last week the Economic and Social Research Institute projected Ireland would fall into recession this year, with the economy contracting by 7.1%, compared with 5.5% growth in 2019. The think tank gave a grim summary of its vision for the next few months: consumption, investment and net trade would all fall sharply; households would cut spending; firms would cancel or postpone investment; and external demand for Irish goods and services would fall.
In this new, poorer Ireland, Sinn Fein’s plan to spend €6.5bn on housing will not be possible. There will be no pension increases from Fianna Fail, or tax cuts from Fine Gael. The central policy planks of all the party manifestos are null and void. They will not be able to implement the plans for which they received a mandate, and they have no mandate for the measures that must be taken.
The Fianna Fail leader Micheál Martin went close to acknowledging this in the Dail last week, when he warned tough decisions would have to be taken by the next government. “The choices will be very different from those we were discussing until recently,” he said.
When this is all over, there will be a new urgency for radical policies to fix our broken health system, and never again leave ourselves so exposed. On housing, too, there will be a change in attitude. Having argued for years that even a temporary rent freeze is unconstitutional, the government introduced one last week. Having resisted banning evictions to prevent families becoming homeless, the government put in place just such a ban. The excuses we have heard from successive administrations about why things cannot be done will not be tolerated any more. The far-reaching legislation that passed through the Dail last Thursday demonstrated just what can be done, when the political will is there. There will also be a shift in the national psyche. Many people who voted for “change” in the general election are now seeking safety and security.
McInerney asks a very good question.
… What authority do any of the political parties have to make the tough choices ahead? A government is supposed to implement the will of the people, but we don’t know now what that is. There will be many different strategies available to deal with the impending recession. For example, should we borrow extensively, or introduce a short, sharp shock of austerity? No doubt Sinn Fein and Fine Gael would advocate different paths. Don’t the Irish people deserve a say in which plan is chosen?
The analysis is good but her remedy for a new general election is unfeasible during lockdown or even under any conceivable medium term relaxation of its grip.
So we are left with the problem. There seems to be no appetite for an all- party national government. The choice therefore seems to be between a minority Fianna Fail/ Fine Gael emergency coalition seeking extra support from independents and anybody willing, legislating case by case when necessary for at least three if not six months; or simply continuing with the status quo. The emergency legislation’s smooth passage sets an encouraging precedent.
Plainly this situation benefits Fine Gael enormously. but it must be creating deep unease inside Fianna Fail and even Sinn Fein. Leo Varadkar won high praise for his TV speech last week– an easy enough gesture indeed but important at a time when people are looking for confident leadership. Now the latest poll looks good for Fine Gael the smallest of the top three parties but the one still leading the government.
A Business Post/Red C poll published today.. has put the party back out in front, harnessing 34% of support among the 1,000 participants of the poll – an increase of 13% on the election result.
Sinn Féin is sitting on 28% of support – up 3% – according to the poll, while Fianna Fáil has experienced a drop in support to 18%.
.
It’s really weird. Nobody seems to mind. Or if they do, none dare say so.


sluggerotoole--2020-03-28--Has Coronavirus helped us remember what the internet is really for?

Just over a week ago I was in my office at the BBC building at MediaCity in Salford .
I was in the traditional end-of-project panic , trying to finish the series of radio documentaries I ’ ve been making for the BBC World Service .
These programmes explore how digital technology and the online world has changed the ways the religious practice their faith – how mobile apps help the busy worship alone , and virtual reality church lets the remote or disabled worship with others .
You can hear all four here .
When I started , three @ @ @ @ @ @ @ interesting , if niche subject .
Now it looks like amazing prescience .
But even as I as was finishing them , the coronavirus was only hovering on my horizon of things to worry about .
Most people were already working from home but there was talk of it being more strictly enforced .
Now , everything has changed .
It ’ s not an exaggeration to say that life as we know it has stopped for the foreseeable future .
For the hundreds of families across the UK and Ireland who have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and can ’ t even mourn their passing properly , it will never be the same again .
The rest of us are facing varying stages of disruption .
We can ’ t go where we want whenever we want to ; we can ’ t buy whatever we want when we want to .
Many people have no work , and therefore no income .
Yet for the thousands working for the NHS or the police , this is a time of crazy hours and dreadful stress .
Others are trying to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ acrobatics and child-bribing techniques .
Millions of vulnerable people are literally imprisone d , some alone and terrified , some with no escape from poisonous relationships .
But as our ability to connect physically has diminished , our virtual connectivity has expanded to fill the gap – and in so many positive ways .
I know there are still those excluded from the online world , and those , like the hundreds in rural Ireland , North and South , who have unreliable connections .
But for the millions who spent most of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ highlight what has changed .
Last night I tentatively stepped outside my front door , to # clapforourcarers .
This campaign , to show our appreciation for the NHS workers struggling to keep the pandemic at bay , was started online by yoga teacher Annemar ie Plas .
I was determined to do it because my sister is a GP in London , but like many others , I wasn ’ t sure how many people would follow the call .
But even in the quiet suburban street where I live , in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ England , you could hear the claps and the cheers .
In pools of light , on doorsteps down the street , I saw people I ’ ve never seen before , joining the applause .
I felt like waving – and crying .
I ’ ve found it hard not to feel out of step recently , watching as people with millions of social media followers , but few apparent skills , who represent no one but themselves , and who aren ’ t improving our lives in any discernible way , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
I ’ ve become fed up hearing myself bleat : “ What about nurses and doctors , teachers and police officers ?
” Even before this pandemic , I ’ ve wanted to celebrate the millions of NHS staff battling to continue to provide a service , while successive governments ignore or undermine their work , or in the case of the Assembly , relinquish all responsibility for years on end .
The fact that this catastrophe has reminded us how brave and important heath service staff are , and an online @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in a public display of appreciation , for me , is cause for celebration .
As public and physical gatherings have been banned , we ’ ve looked to the online space to help and the results have been spectacularly inventive .
Northern Ireland ’ s own Imagine Festival found itself having to reimagine the immediate future in the digital sphere and has risen admirably to the challenge .
In the Netherlands , members of the Rotterdam Philharmonic Orchestra , who are self-isolating , all played Beethoven online together , with amazing results @ @ @ @ @ @ @ House on the Ormeau Road is determined to keep the Belfast party spirit alive , live streaming gigs and offering free deliveries of food and drink : And how lovely has it been to open your social media feeds and find people posting help and advice , or funny videos of dogs and cats , or asking for virtual hugs and being showered with online love , instead of hate .
Those original pioneers of the internet , and then the world wide web , wanted to help communities connect , to freely @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and share .
When this is all over , can we try to remember that ?
Photo by geralt is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA

Just over a week ago I was in my office at the BBC building at MediaCity in Salford. I was in the traditional end-of-project panic, trying to finish the series of radio documentaries I’ve been making for the BBC World Service. These programmes explore how digital technology and the online world has changed the ways the religious practice their faith – how mobile apps help the busy worship alone, and virtual reality church lets the remote or disabled worship with others. You can hear all four here. When I started, three months ago, this seemed like an interesting, if niche subject. Now it looks like amazing prescience. But even as I as was finishing them, the coronavirus was only hovering on my horizon of things to worry about. Most people were already working from home but there was talk of it being more strictly enforced.
Now, everything has changed.
It’s not an exaggeration to say that life as we know it has stopped for the foreseeable future. For the hundreds of families across the UK and Ireland who have already lost people to the virus, and can’t even mourn their passing properly, it will never be the same again. The rest of us are facing varying stages of disruption. We can’t go where we want whenever we want to; we can’t buy whatever we want when we want to. Many people have no work, and therefore no income. Yet for the thousands working for the NHS or the police, this is a time of crazy hours and dreadful stress. Others are trying to work from home, involving complicated online acrobatics and child-bribing techniques. Millions of vulnerable people are literally imprisone d, some alone and terrified, some with no escape from poisonous relationships.
But as our ability to connect physically has diminished, our virtual connectivity has expanded to fill the gap – and in so many positive ways. I know there are still those excluded from the online world, and those, like the hundreds in rural Ireland, North and South, who have unreliable connections. But for the millions who spent most of their day online, I want to highlight what has changed.
Last night I tentatively stepped outside my front door, to #clapforourcarers. This campaign, to show our appreciation for the NHS workers struggling to keep the pandemic at bay, was started online by yoga teacher Annemar ie Plas. I was determined to do it because my sister is a GP in London, but like many others, I wasn’t sure how many people would follow the call. But even in the quiet suburban street where I live, in a small town in the northwest of England, you could hear the claps and the cheers. In pools of light, on doorsteps down the street, I saw people I’ve never seen before, joining the applause. I felt like waving – and crying.
I’ve found it hard not to feel out of step recently, watching as people with millions of social media followers, but few apparent skills, who represent no one but themselves, and who aren’t improving our lives in any discernible way, have been elevated to the superstar status. I’ve become fed up hearing myself bleat: “What about nurses and doctors, teachers and police officers?” Even before this pandemic, I’ve wanted to celebrate the millions of NHS staff battling to continue to provide a service, while successive governments ignore or undermine their work, or in the case of the Assembly, relinquish all responsibility for years on end. The fact that this catastrophe has reminded us how brave and important heath service staff are, and an online campaign brought people across these islands together in a public display of appreciation, for me, is cause for celebration.
As public and physical gatherings have been banned, we’ve looked to the online space to help and the results have been spectacularly inventive. Northern Ireland’s own Imagine Festival found itself having to reimagine the immediate future in the digital sphere and has risen admirably to the challenge. In the Netherlands, members of the Rotterdam Philharmonic Orchestra, who are self-isolating, all played Beethoven online together, with amazing results.
closer to home, the Hatfield House on the Ormeau Road is determined to keep the Belfast party spirit alive, live streaming gigs and offering free deliveries of food and drink:
And how lovely has it been to open your social media feeds and find people posting help and advice, or funny videos of dogs and cats, or asking for virtual hugs and being showered with online love, instead of hate.
Those original pioneers of the internet, and then the world wide web, wanted to help communities connect, to freely share information, to help us connect and share. When this is all over, can we try to remember that?
Photo by geralt is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA


sluggerotoole--2020-03-28--COVID19 Spread In Both Irelands, the UK and Selected Countries: Updated Daily Graphs

I am collecting the daily statistics for cases and deaths due to COVID19 on a daily basis for both Irish jurisdictions , the UK , the USA , China , South Korea and Italy .
Updated graphs can be seen at http : //mysql02.comp.dkit.ie/mcguinnp/covid19/ .
Graphs show “ Deaths per million of the population ” ( Northern Ireland doing worryingly badly in this regard ; Republic of Ireland approaching the Italy curve ) ; “ New cases per day ” ( lack of testing in NI resulting in low figures ) ; “ Cumulative cases per million of the population @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ; “ Logarithmic trendline to Republic of Ireland ’ s figures ” ; “ Recovery rate as percentage of closed cases ” ( i.e .
cases whose outcome was either full recovery or death ) .
Graphs mostly use a logarithmic scale on the Y-axis .
This is to allow you to see detail in both large and small countries .
What matters most in these graphs is the shape and slope of the curve .
I am also adding some summary commentary on the day ’ s figures .
I am not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ someone who loves numbers and finds number-crunching a good way to take one ’ s mind off the crisis in which we find ourselves .
March 27th Summary Commentary ( positive stories first : scale from 5+ to 5- : 1+ : Italy : Deaths per millions : rate still slowing .
New cases : more evidence for curve flattening .
Italy may be about 14 days from new cases in the low hundreds , but there are reports of case clustering in Lazio and Campania .
The Mezzogiorno has a weaker infrastructure @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Ireland : Deaths per million : slight shallowing .
0 : South Korea : New cases : SK seems stuck at about 100 new cases per day .
1- : China : New cases : is there a second steepening happening ?
2- : Republic of Ireland : There was an error in yesterday ’ s ‘ Deaths per million ’ graph : I had forgotten to include new figure .
Our deaths per million curve looks more like Italy ’ s than the UK ’ s .
Our new cases are slightly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that we may end up with about 48,000 cases eventually .
Logarithmic best-fit suggests 3,790 cases after 100 days ( 365 more than yesterday ) .
Recovery rate fluctuates due to early stage in COVID19 outbreak compared to China or South Kores .
2- : UK : Deaths per million curve steepening .
New cases steepening .
Recovery rate fluctuates due to early stage in COVID19 outbreak compared to China or South Korea .
4- : USA : Deaths per million shallowing but still serious .
Biggest ever daily new cases of any @ @ @ @ @ @ @ USA overtakes UK today .
Recovery rate fluctuates due to early stage in COVID19 outbreak compared to China or South Korea .
“ kelly salon ” by susanjanegolding is licensed under CC BY

I am collecting the daily statistics for cases and deaths due to COVID19 on a daily basis for both Irish jurisdictions, the UK, the USA, China, South Korea and Italy. Updated graphs can be seen at http://mysql02.comp.dkit.ie/mcguinnp/covid19/.
Graphs show “Deaths per million of the population” (Northern Ireland doing worryingly badly in this regard; Republic of Ireland approaching the Italy curve); “New cases per day” (lack of testing in NI resulting in low figures); “Cumulative cases per million of the population” (USA in big trouble); “Logarithmic trendline to Republic of Ireland’s figures”; “Recovery rate as percentage of closed cases” (i.e. cases whose outcome was either full recovery or death). Graphs mostly use a logarithmic scale on the Y-axis. This is to allow you to see detail in both large and small countries. What matters most in these graphs is the shape and slope of the curve.
I am also adding some summary commentary on the day’s figures. I am not a medical professional or epidemiologist, just someone who loves numbers and finds number-crunching a good way to take one’s mind off the crisis in which we find ourselves.
March 27th Summary Commentary (positive stories first: scale from 5+ to 5-:
1+: Italy: Deaths per millions: rate still slowing. New cases: more evidence for curve flattening. Italy may be about 14 days from new cases in the low hundreds, but there are reports of case clustering in Lazio and Campania. The Mezzogiorno has a weaker infrastructure and is poorer.
0: Northern Ireland: Deaths per million: slight shallowing.
0: South Korea: New cases: SK seems stuck at about 100 new cases per day.
1-: China: New cases: is there a second steepening happening?
2-: Republic of Ireland: There was an error in yesterday’s ‘Deaths per million’ graph: I had forgotten to include new figure. Our deaths per million curve looks more like Italy’s than the UK’s. Our new cases are slightly steepening. Cases per million graph suggests that we may end up with about 48,000 cases eventually. Logarithmic best-fit suggests 3,790 cases after 100 days (365 more than yesterday). Recovery rate fluctuates due to early stage in COVID19 outbreak compared to China or South Kores.
2-: UK: Deaths per million curve steepening. New cases steepening. Recovery rate fluctuates due to early stage in COVID19 outbreak compared to China or South Korea.
4-: USA: Deaths per million shallowing but still serious. Biggest ever daily new cases of any country today. Cases per million: USA overtakes UK today. Recovery rate fluctuates due to early stage in COVID19 outbreak compared to China or South Korea.
“kelly salon” by susanjanegolding is licensed under CC BY