alternet--2020-10-18--How toxic masculinity became a threat to public health

As if the first two waves of COVID-19 hospitalizations in the United States were n't enough to inspire serious political changes to stop the coronavirus , health experts have sounded the alarm that a third wave is underway .
Coronavirus cases and hospitalizations are rising across the nation , specifically in the Dakotas , Nebraska , and Montana , as the seasons change and the election nears .
It 's certainly taken a lot of resilience and strength to persevere through this pandemic — particularly given the backdrop of political chaos , uncertainty and immense change in our daily lives @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of `` staying strong , '' and acting stoically — which is rooted in a culture that favors and thrives off toxic masculinity — that has hurt and continues to hurt us the most .
Toxic masculinity , which has become a household phrase over the last few years , is when the archetypal image of masculinity , like displaying strength , becomes harmful to oneself .
In 2005 , in a study of men in prison , psychiatrist Terry Kupers defined toxic masculinity as `` the constellation of socially regressive male traits @ @ @ @ @ @ @ devaluation of women , homophobia , and wanton violence . ''
The phrase is used to describe the issues men face or sometimes , wrongfully , justify them .
Certainly , in a patriarchal society , toxic masculinity not only defines people but politics — as its mores trickle into our entertainment , discourse and politics .
Notably , the pandemic response is being led by the most psychologically compromised , toxic men in America .
As I wrote last weekend , President Donald Trump 's insistence on depicting himself as so strong @ @ @ @ @ @ @ through '' his COVID-19 illness is deeply harmful , and apt to put Americans ' lives at risk who mimic his behavior — either by working while sick or hiding symptoms .
Meanwhile , Trump 's re-election campaign has tried to frame Trump as a `` warrior '' — masculine , strong and void of emotion .
The administration 's individualistic , pick-yourself-up-by-your-bootstraps rhetoric personifies toxic masculinity , and trickles down to Trump 's underlings , too .
In June , Vice President Mike Pence wrote an op-ed essay in The Wall Street @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of COVID-19 , despite all the evidence to the contrary .
`` We are winning the fight against the invisible enemy , '' Pence wrote then , adding `` our greatest strength is the resilience of the American people . ''
Yet as psychologists will warn , there is a dark side to resilience .
`` There is no doubt that resilience is a useful and highly adaptive trait , especially in the face of traumatic events , '' psychologists Tomas Chamorro-Premuzic and Derek Lusk wrote in Harvard Business Review .
`` However @ @ @ @ @ @ @ may focus individuals on impossible goals and make them unnecessarily tolerant of unpleasant or counterproductive circumstances . ''
In other words , self-sufficiency is not always a show of strength ; humans , as social creatures , rely on others for society to function and to remain healthy .
Denying that means hurting ourselves , either by delaying care or eschewing guidance that may help us or save others .
I 've often wondered how much my so-called `` resilience '' in all of this is just making me numb and tolerant , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at which countries have the pandemic somewhat under control , we look and judge their leaders .
It 's interesting to do this through a gendered lens .
For example , New Zealand has some of the lowest coronavirus numbers in the world under Prime Minister Jacinda Adern 's leadership .
That 's partly because she never advertised grandiose ideas about being above or stronger than the coronavirus .
As I 've previously written , the strengths—such as empathy and compassion— Ardern has brought throughout her tenure are the very same traits that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ positions in the workplace and in the public sector .
When male leaders display traditionally feminine qualities , they can also be maligned as weak — former House Speaker John Boehner , for example , used to shed tears in public ; Politico 's response was to ask , `` Why Does John Boehner Cry So Much ? ''
It 's obvious the Trump administration is terrified of appearing `` weak '' during the pandemic .
But where has that gotten us ?
Prioritizing the economy over our health .
Over 8 million @ @ @ @ @ @ @ And the politicizing of wearing masks , as though wearing them were a sign of weakness — something Trump mocked his opponent Joe Biden for at their first and so far only debate .
As much as toxic masculinity 's social repercussion are harmful to our physical health , it is also taking a toll on our mental health .
A study published in JAMA Network Open in September showed that three times as many Americans met criteria for a depression diagnosis during the pandemic compared to before it .
According to an @ @ @ @ @ @ @ anxiety increased too .
Why ?
In part , it could be a result of having to power through these extraordinarily abnormal times without seeking help — that `` bootstraps '' mentality innate to toxic masculinity .
One 's attempts to hold it together can devolve into emotional suppression , which in return can cause more emotional distress .
In July 2018 , Penn State researchers found that women tried to suppress their fears about the Zika virus reported higher levels of fear later .
`` It turns out that not only is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it 's counter-productive , '' one researcher said .
`` It creates a cycle of fear — and it 's a vicious cycle . ''
As a society , many of us — particularly men — have n't been authorized to express sadness publicly , and these studies reflect that .
With over 200,000 Americans dead of coronavirus , their loved ones are grieving .
Seven months later , we 've yet to have a moment of national reflection to mourn .
As it is with the death of a loved one , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 's uncomfortable emotions .
Instead , it requires collective vulnerability , compassion and patience .
As author David Kessler told HBR : As we try to stay strong through this pandemic , the strength we seek to feel will come from falling apart and allowing ourselves to feel the loss and the chaos—physically and emotionally .
By persevering through that , still standing in so much unknown , we can experience real strength .
In other words , the non-toxic kind .

As if the first two waves of COVID-19 hospitalizations in the United States weren't enough to inspire serious political changes to stop the coronavirus, health experts have sounded the alarm that a third wave is underway. Coronavirus cases and hospitalizations are rising across the nation, specifically in the Dakotas, Nebraska, and Montana, as the seasons change and the election nears.
It's certainly taken a lot of resilience and strength to persevere through this pandemic — particularly given the backdrop of political chaos, uncertainty and immense change in our daily lives. Yet perhaps it is this attitude of "staying strong," and acting stoically — which is rooted in a culture that favors and thrives off toxic masculinity — that has hurt and continues to hurt us the most.
Toxic masculinity, which has become a household phrase over the last few years, is when the archetypal image of masculinity, like displaying strength, becomes harmful to oneself. In 2005, in a study of men in prison, psychiatrist Terry Kupers defined toxic masculinity as "the constellation of socially regressive male traits that serve to foster domination, the devaluation of women, homophobia, and wanton violence." The phrase is used to describe the issues men face or sometimes, wrongfully, justify them. Certainly, in a patriarchal society, toxic masculinity not only defines people but politics — as its mores trickle into our entertainment, discourse and politics.
Notably, the pandemic response is being led by the most psychologically compromised, toxic men in America. As I wrote last weekend, President Donald Trump's insistence on depicting himself as so strong as to be able to "work through" his COVID-19 illness is deeply harmful, and apt to put Americans' lives at risk who mimic his behavior — either by working while sick or hiding symptoms.
Meanwhile, Trump's re-election campaign has tried to frame Trump as a "warrior" — masculine, strong and void of emotion. The administration's individualistic, pick-yourself-up-by-your-bootstraps rhetoric personifies toxic masculinity, and trickles down to Trump's underlings, too. In June, Vice President Mike Pence wrote an op-ed essay in The Wall Street Journal claiming there was no second wave of COVID-19, despite all the evidence to the contrary. "We are winning the fight against the invisible enemy," Pence wrote then, adding "our greatest strength is the resilience of the American people."
Yet as psychologists will warn, there is a dark side to resilience.
"There is no doubt that resilience is a useful and highly adaptive trait, especially in the face of traumatic events," psychologists Tomas Chamorro-Premuzic and Derek Lusk wrote in Harvard Business Review. "However, when taken too far, it may focus individuals on impossible goals and make them unnecessarily tolerant of unpleasant or counterproductive circumstances." In other words, self-sufficiency is not always a show of strength; humans, as social creatures, rely on others for society to function and to remain healthy. Denying that means hurting ourselves, either by delaying care or eschewing guidance that may help us or save others.
I've often wondered how much my so-called "resilience" in all of this is just making me numb and tolerant, in an unhealthy way. When looking at which countries have the pandemic somewhat under control, we look and judge their leaders. It's interesting to do this through a gendered lens. For example, New Zealand has some of the lowest coronavirus numbers in the world under Prime Minister Jacinda Adern's leadership. That's partly because she never advertised grandiose ideas about being above or stronger than the coronavirus. As I've previously written, the strengths—such as empathy and compassion— Ardern has brought throughout her tenure are the very same traits that have been used against women seeking leadership positions in the workplace and in the public sector. When male leaders display traditionally feminine qualities, they can also be maligned as weak — former House Speaker John Boehner, for example, used to shed tears in public; Politico's response was to ask, "Why Does John Boehner Cry So Much?"
It's obvious the Trump administration is terrified of appearing "weak" during the pandemic. But where has that gotten us? Prioritizing the economy over our health. Over 8 million infections, and 218,000 Americans dead. And the politicizing of wearing masks, as though wearing them were a sign of weakness — something Trump mocked his opponent Joe Biden for at their first and so far only debate.
As much as toxic masculinity's social repercussion are harmful to our physical health, it is also taking a toll on our mental health. A study published in JAMA Network Open in September showed that three times as many Americans met criteria for a depression diagnosis during the pandemic compared to before it. According to an analysis of Google Trends, symptoms of anxiety increased too.
Why? In part, it could be a result of having to power through these extraordinarily abnormal times without seeking help — that "bootstraps" mentality innate to toxic masculinity. One's attempts to hold it together can devolve into emotional suppression, which in return can cause more emotional distress. In July 2018, Penn State researchers found that women tried to suppress their fears about the Zika virus reported higher levels of fear later. "It turns out that not only is suppression ineffective at handling fear, but it's counter-productive," one researcher said. "It creates a cycle of fear — and it's a vicious cycle."
As a society, many of us — particularly men — haven't been authorized to express sadness publicly, and these studies reflect that. With over 200,000 Americans dead of coronavirus, their loved ones are grieving. Seven months later, we've yet to have a moment of national reflection to mourn.
As it is with the death of a loved one, grief isn't lessened by ignoring one's uncomfortable emotions. Instead, it requires collective vulnerability, compassion and patience. As author David Kessler told HBR:
Emotions need motion. It's important we acknowledge what we go through. [...] We tell ourselves things like, I feel sad, but I shouldn't feel that; other people have it worse. We can — we should — stop at the first feeling. I feel sad. Let me go for five minutes to feel sad. Your work is to feel your sadness and fear and anger whether or not someone else is feeling something. Fighting it doesn't help because your body is producing the feeling. If we allow the feelings to happen, they'll happen in an orderly way, and it empowers us. Then we're not victims.
As we try to stay strong through this pandemic, the strength we seek to feel will come from falling apart and allowing ourselves to feel the loss and the chaos—physically and emotionally. By persevering through that, still standing in so much unknown, we can experience real strength. In other words, the non-toxic kind.


alternet--2020-10-18--Major Democratic super PAC cancels TV ads in Colorado GOP senator's path to re-election collapses

The Democratic group Senate Majority PAC announced Friday that it was canceling its remaining $ 1.2 million TV reservation in Colorado , a move that 's only the latest sign that Republican Sen. Cory Gardner is in dire shape against Democrat John Hickenlooper .
While SMP is the first group that has stopped spending here altogether , Gardner 's allies have also largely directed their resources elsewhere .
The Denver Post 's Justin Wingerter reported on Friday that the NRSC , the committee that Gardner himself chaired just two years ago , had spent $ 145,000 during the first half @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the final weeks of a Senate race .
The Senate Leadership Fund has spent $ 2 million from the start of October through Friday , which , while a lot more than the NRSC , still is much less than its directed elsewhere .
SLF is still running spots here and told Politico that it would continue doing so , but it 's clear the super PAC does n't see this race as a major priority in a cycle where it has so many seats to defend in far more conservative states .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ announcement by arguing , `` It 's clear the Democrats also know John Hickenlooper has no chance of winning , '' but few fell for that truly uninspired spin .
Four surveys have been released so far in October , and they 've all shown Hickenlooper ahead by at least 9 points .
Every recent poll has also shown Joe Biden far ahead in what a swing state only a few years ago , which makes Gardner 's task even tougher .

The Democratic group Senate Majority PAC announced Friday that it was canceling its remaining $1.2 million TV reservation in Colorado, a move that's only the latest sign that Republican Sen. Cory Gardner is in dire shape against Democrat John Hickenlooper.
While SMP is the first group that has stopped spending here altogether, Gardner's allies have also largely directed their resources elsewhere. The Denver Post's Justin Wingerter reported on Friday that the NRSC, the committee that Gardner himself chaired just two years ago, had spent $145,000 during the first half of October, a negligible sum for the final weeks of a Senate race.
The Senate Leadership Fund has spent $2 million from the start of October through Friday, which, while a lot more than the NRSC, still is much less than its directed elsewhere. SLF is still running spots here and told Politico that it would continue doing so, but it's clear the super PAC doesn't see this race as a major priority in a cycle where it has so many seats to defend in far more conservative states.
The Gardner campaign responded to SMP's announcement by arguing, "It's clear the Democrats also know John Hickenlooper has no chance of winning," but few fell for that truly uninspired spin. Four surveys have been released so far in October, and they've all shown Hickenlooper ahead by at least 9 points. Every recent poll has also shown Joe Biden far ahead in what a swing state only a few years ago, which makes Gardner's task even tougher.


alternet--2020-10-18--‘You have no standing’: CNN's Tapper corners Lara Trump after she links stuttering to ‘cognitive dec

‘You have no standing’: CNN's Tapper corners Lara Trump after she links stuttering to ‘cognitive decline’

CNN host Jake Tapper on Sunday ended an interview with Trump campaign spokesperson Lara Trump after she suggested stuttering is a sign of cognitive decline .
`` Joe Biden as we all know has worked to overcome a stutter , '' Tapper said before explaining that Biden had been an inspiration for children who stutter .
`` How do you think it makes little kids with stutters feel when they see you [ mocking Joe Biden ] ? ''
the CNN host asked .
`` First and foremost , I had no idea that Joe Biden ever suffered from a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I think what we see on stage with Joe Biden , Jake , is very clearly a cognitive decline . ''
`` First and foremost , I had no idea that Joe Biden ever suffered from a stutter , '' Trump replied .
`` I think what we see on stage with Joe Biden , Jake , is very clearly a cognitive decline . ''
`` OK , '' Tapper replied .
`` You have no — it 's so amazing to me that — a cognitive decline .
I think you were @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I think you have absolutely no standing to diagnose someone 's cognitive decline , '' he added .
`` I would think that somebody in the Trump family would be more sensitive to people who do not have medical licenses diagnosing politicians from afar .
Plenty people have diagnosed your [ father-in-law ] from afar .
And I 'm sure it offends you . ''
`` You just talked about cognitive decline , '' Tapper said and then pivoted to his final question .
`` I have one last question for you , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ talk about Biden 's mental state .
`` It 's very concerning to a lot of people , '' she said , `` that this could be the leader of the free world .
That is all I 'm saying .
I genuinely feel sorry for Joe Biden . ''
With that , Tapper ended the interview early .
`` Thank you , Lara , I appreciate it , '' Tapper said .
`` I 'm sure it was from a place of concern .
We all believe that . ''
Watch the @ @ @ @ @

CNN host Jake Tapper on Sunday ended an interview with Trump campaign spokesperson Lara Trump after she suggested stuttering is a sign of cognitive decline.
"Joe Biden as we all know has worked to overcome a stutter," Tapper said before explaining that Biden had been an inspiration for children who stutter.
"How do you think it makes little kids with stutters feel when they see you [mocking Joe Biden]?" the CNN host asked.
"First and foremost, I had no idea that Joe Biden ever suffered from a stutter," Trump replied. "I think what we see on stage with Joe Biden, Jake, is very clearly a cognitive decline."
"First and foremost, I had no idea that Joe Biden ever suffered from a stutter," Trump replied. "I think what we see on stage with Joe Biden, Jake, is very clearly a cognitive decline."
"OK," Tapper replied. "You have no — it's so amazing to me that — a cognitive decline. I think you were mocking his stutter."
"And I think you have absolutely no standing to diagnose someone's cognitive decline," he added. "I would think that somebody in the Trump family would be more sensitive to people who do not have medical licenses diagnosing politicians from afar. Plenty people have diagnosed your [father-in-law] from afar. And I'm sure it offends you."
"I'm not diagnosing him," Trump insisted.
"You just talked about cognitive decline," Tapper said and then pivoted to his final question. "I have one last question for you, Lara."
But Trump continued to talk about Biden's mental state.
"It's very concerning to a lot of people," she said, "that this could be the leader of the free world. That is all I'm saying. I genuinely feel sorry for Joe Biden."
With that, Tapper ended the interview early.
"Thank you, Lara, I appreciate it," Tapper said. "I'm sure it was from a place of concern. We all believe that."
Watch the video below from CNN.


alternet--2020-10-18--'Dr. Johnny Bananas': The White House is pushing a fraudulent medical petition to let COVID-19 run r

'Dr. Johnny Bananas': The White House is pushing a fraudulent medical petition to let COVID-19 run rampant

Having basically surrendered to the coronavirus , Republican President Donald Trump has increasingly said that he 'd like to stop focusing on COVID-19 prevention measures and instead go for `` herd immunity . ''
The White House is even backing a petition signed by thousands of doctors around the world who support the idea .
The only problem : Many of the petition 's signers are fake , using names like `` Dr. I.P .
Freely , Dr .
Person Fakename and Dr. Johnny Bananas , '' according to TruthOut.org .
Herd immunity is a term often applied to widespread @ @ @ @ @ @ @ `` allowing the virus to spread in the general population … so that allowing those least likely to be killed by the virus to return to normal life '' while protecting those most vulnerable to the virus ' lethality .
While that might sound appealing , the Trump administration has shown how poorly it protects the most vulnerable—the lack of a national prevention strategy , widespread affordable testing , and Trump 's refusal to use the Defense Production Act to get manufacturers to make widely available personal protective equipment ( PPE ) for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ glaring failures .
To promote the idea , which Trump has repeatedly mentioned on the campaign trail , the White House has shared a petitioned called The Great Barrington Declaration , promoting the idea .
However , anyone can sign the petition and declare themselves as a doctor , including people who work as massage therapists , psychotherapists and homeopaths , a practice with no proven medical benefits .
Furthermore , on Monday , World Health Organization ( WHO ) Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus called the herd immunity strategy `` scientifically and ethically @ @ @ @ @ @ @ enough about how much immunity a person gains after catching COVID-19 and how long it lasts , especially since some people have been infected by the virus more than once .
`` Letting the virus circulate unchecked therefore means allowing unnecessary infections , suffering and death , '' he said .

Having basically surrendered to the coronavirus, Republican President Donald Trump has increasingly said that he'd like to stop focusing on COVID-19 prevention measures and instead go for "herd immunity." The White House is even backing a petition signed by thousands of doctors around the world who support the idea.
The only problem: Many of the petition's signers are fake, using names like "Dr. I.P. Freely, Dr. Person Fakename and Dr. Johnny Bananas," according to TruthOut.org.
Herd immunity is a term often applied to widespread vaccine use, in this case means "allowing the virus to spread in the general population … so that allowing those least likely to be killed by the virus to return to normal life" while protecting those most vulnerable to the virus' lethality.
While that might sound appealing, the Trump administration has shown how poorly it protects the most vulnerable—the lack of a national prevention strategy, widespread affordable testing, and Trump's refusal to use the Defense Production Act to get manufacturers to make widely available personal protective equipment (PPE) for frontline healthcare workers are just its most glaring failures.
To promote the idea, which Trump has repeatedly mentioned on the campaign trail, the White House has shared a petitioned called The Great Barrington Declaration, promoting the idea. However, anyone can sign the petition and declare themselves as a doctor, including people who work as massage therapists, psychotherapists and homeopaths, a practice with no proven medical benefits.
Furthermore, on Monday, World Health Organization (WHO) Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus called the herd immunity strategy "scientifically and ethically problematic" because scientists don't know enough about how much immunity a person gains after catching COVID-19 and how long it lasts, especially since some people have been infected by the virus more than once.
"Letting the virus circulate unchecked therefore means allowing unnecessary infections, suffering and death," he said.


alternet--2020-10-18--The exceptional catalog of polling failure

The question looms in nearly every U.S. presidential election , even in this year 's race : Could the polls be wrong ?
If they are , they likely will err in unique fashion .
The history of election polling says as much .
That history tells of no greater polling surprise than what happened in 1948 , when President Harry Truman defied the polls , the pundits and the press to defeat Thomas E. Dewey , his heavily favored Republican foe .
Pollsters were certain Truman had no chance .
One of them , Elmo Roper , was so @ @ @ @ @ @ @ announced two months before the election he would release no further survey data unless a political miracle intervened .
Rival pollsters George Gallup and Archibald Crossley largely completed their poll-taking by mid-October – and missed a decisive shift in support to Truman in the campaign 's closing days .
As I point out in my latest book , “ Lost in a Gallup : Polling Failure in U.S. Presidential Elections , '' the misfire of 1948 was exceptional .
And that describes most polling failures in presidential elections : They tend to be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ When the polls go wrong , they almost always do so in some unanticipated way .
Errors spring from no single template .
This variety helps explain why polling failure is so unpredictable and so jarring .
The epic miscall of 1948 has never been duplicated in U.S. presidential elections – although the shock of Truman 's victory may have been rivaled by the profound surprise that accompanied Donald Trump 's win in 2016 .
Trump 's victory represented polling failure of another kind : Polls in 2016 were not so much in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ such as Wisconsin , Pennsylvania and Michigan .
If Hillary Clinton had carried those states , as polls had indicated , she would have won the electoral votes to become president .
But errors in state-level polls upset national expectations , in part because those polls tended to include too few white voters without college degrees , a key Trump constituency in 2016 and this year .
Voters changing or making up their minds late in the campaign led in 1980 to another type of polling failure – the unforeseen landslide .
Polls @ @ @ @ @ @ @ between President Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan .
At campaign 's end , the race seemed too close to call .
For logistical reasons , poll-taking may not be able to catch up with late-breaking revelations that disrupt the public 's perception of a campaign 's dynamic , such as the disclosures before the 2000 election about George W. Bush 's drunken-driving conviction .
In 1976 , Bush was arrested in Maine and pleaded guilty to a DUI violation that he had never publicly revealed .
A young television reporter in Maine pursued @ @ @ @ @ @ @ details five days before the election .
As the 2000 campaign closed , most polls signaled Bush was ahead by a few percentage points .
In the end , Democrat Al Gore won the popular vote but lost the Electoral College in the disputed outcome of voting in Florida .
Disclosures about Bush 's DUI conviction may have been enough to cost him a popular-vote victory .
The 2000 outcome represented another variety of polling failure – pointing to the wrong winner in a close race .
It 's a class of failure @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the election between John F. Kennedy and Richard M. Nixon .
Roper 's final pre-election poll suggested a two-point win for Nixon .
As I note in “ Lost in a Gallup , '' after Kennedy 's razor-thin victory had become clear , Roper 's son and business partner , Burns , sent a memorandum to the company 's staff , declaring : “ I 'm not about to take any malarkey about having 'picked the wrong man . '
'' But that 's what the Roper poll had done .
It pointed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of polling failure is that of the venerable pollster who is singularly and astonishingly in error – as was the Literary Digest in its infamous mail-in survey of 1936 .
The Digest was a weekly magazine whose massive mail-in polls had identified the winner in each of the three presidential elections since 1924 .
Some newspapers acclaimed the Digest 's mass-polling technique for its “ uncanny '' accuracy .
In 1936 , the Digest employed the same methodology that had served it so well .
After sending 10 million postcard ballots and tabulating @ @ @ @ @ @ @ country , the Digest reported that Republican Alf Landon was bound for a comfortable victory over President Franklin D. Roosevelt .
[ Deep knowledge , daily .
Sign up for The Conversation 's newsletter . ]
Landon ended up carrying two states – Maine and Vermont – and lost the popular vote by 24 percentage points .
Roosevelt 's victory was one of the most lopsided in presidential election history .
That also was the year Gallup , Crossley and Elmo Roper initiated their election polls , which relied on smaller samples than @ @ @ @ @ @ @ accuracy , all three newcomers in 1936 signaled Roosevelt 's victory .
The Digest 's debacle offers an enduring reminder that the roots of polling failure run deep .
The stunning miscall occurred at the dawn of modern survey research and introduced a nagging sense about polling 's potential to mislead .
After all , if the great election oracle of its time could err so spectacularly , why would other polls be immune to failure ?
The answer : They were n't , and are n't , immune .
This article is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Commons license .
Read the original article .

W. Joseph Campbell, American University School of Communication
The question looms in nearly every U.S. presidential election, even in this year's race: Could the polls be wrong? If they are, they likely will err in unique fashion. The history of election polling says as much.
That history tells of no greater polling surprise than what happened in 1948, when President Harry Truman defied the polls, the pundits and the press to defeat Thomas E. Dewey, his heavily favored Republican foe.
Pollsters were certain Truman had no chance. One of them, Elmo Roper, was so confident of Dewey's victory that he announced two months before the election he would release no further survey data unless a political miracle intervened.
Rival pollsters George Gallup and Archibald Crossley largely completed their poll-taking by mid-October – and missed a decisive shift in support to Truman in the campaign's closing days.
As I point out in my latest book, “Lost in a Gallup: Polling Failure in U.S. Presidential Elections," the misfire of 1948 was exceptional. And that describes most polling failures in presidential elections: They tend to be exceptional, unlike previous polling errors.
No pattern
When the polls go wrong, they almost always do so in some unanticipated way. Errors spring from no single template.
This variety helps explain why polling failure is so unpredictable and so jarring. The epic miscall of 1948 has never been duplicated in U.S. presidential elections – although the shock of Truman's victory may have been rivaled by the profound surprise that accompanied Donald Trump's win in 2016.
Trump's victory represented polling failure of another kind: Polls in 2016 were not so much in error nationally as they were in states such as Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan.
If Hillary Clinton had carried those states, as polls had indicated, she would have won the electoral votes to become president. But errors in state-level polls upset national expectations, in part because those polls tended to include too few white voters without college degrees, a key Trump constituency in 2016 and this year.
Voters changing or making up their minds late in the campaign led in 1980 to another type of polling failure – the unforeseen landslide. Polls that year mostly signaled a close race between President Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan. At campaign's end, the race seemed too close to call.
Reagan won by nearly 10 percentage points.
Failure has different faces
Election polling is vulnerable to last-minute developments.
For logistical reasons, poll-taking may not be able to catch up with late-breaking revelations that disrupt the public's perception of a campaign's dynamic, such as the disclosures before the 2000 election about George W. Bush's drunken-driving conviction.
In 1976, Bush was arrested in Maine and pleaded guilty to a DUI violation that he had never publicly revealed. A young television reporter in Maine pursued a tip in 2000 and reported the details five days before the election.
As the 2000 campaign closed, most polls signaled Bush was ahead by a few percentage points.
In the end, Democrat Al Gore won the popular vote but lost the Electoral College in the disputed outcome of voting in Florida. Disclosures about Bush's DUI conviction may have been enough to cost him a popular-vote victory.
The 2000 outcome represented another variety of polling failure – pointing to the wrong winner in a close race.
It's a class of failure that emerged 40 years earlier, in the election between John F. Kennedy and Richard M. Nixon. Roper's final pre-election poll suggested a two-point win for Nixon.
As I note in “Lost in a Gallup," after Kennedy's razor-thin victory had become clear, Roper's son and business partner, Burns, sent a memorandum to the company's staff, declaring: “I'm not about to take any malarkey about having 'picked the wrong man.'"
But that's what the Roper poll had done. It pointed to the wrong winner.
Recalling the 1936 debacle
Another type of polling failure is that of the venerable pollster who is singularly and astonishingly in error – as was the Literary Digest in its infamous mail-in survey of 1936.
The Digest was a weekly magazine whose massive mail-in polls had identified the winner in each of the three presidential elections since 1924. Some newspapers acclaimed the Digest's mass-polling technique for its “uncanny" accuracy.
In 1936, the Digest employed the same methodology that had served it so well. After sending 10 million postcard ballots and tabulating the 2.3 million returned from around the country, the Digest reported that Republican Alf Landon was bound for a comfortable victory over President Franklin D. Roosevelt.
[Deep knowledge, daily.Sign up for The Conversation's newsletter.]
Landon ended up carrying two states – Maine and Vermont – and lost the popular vote by 24 percentage points. Roosevelt's victory was one of the most lopsided in presidential election history.
That also was the year Gallup, Crossley and Elmo Roper initiated their election polls, which relied on smaller samples than the Digest. With varying degrees of accuracy, all three newcomers in 1936 signaled Roosevelt's victory.
The Digest's debacle offers an enduring reminder that the roots of polling failure run deep. The stunning miscall occurred at the dawn of modern survey research and introduced a nagging sense about polling's potential to mislead.
After all, if the great election oracle of its time could err so spectacularly, why would other polls be immune to failure?
The answer: They weren't, and aren't, immune.
W. Joseph Campbell, Professor of Communication Studies, American University School of Communication
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.


alternet--2020-10-18--Trump’s collapsing campaign is crippling Lindsey Graham’s re-election prospect: report

According to a report from Politico , Sen. Lindsey Graham ( R-SC ) is in the fight of his political life that could see his time in the Senate come to a close in November due to his close association with Donald Trump .
With his numbers in the polls showing him in a virtual tie with Democratic challenger Jamie Harrison , Graham is reportedly hoping his rush to seat Amy Coney Barrett on the Supreme Court will rally enough conservatives to turn out at the polls to stave off what would be an embarrassing defeat .
According to the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ opponent who is the best-funded Senate candidate in American history ; anger from the left over his metamorphosis from scathing Trump antagonist to fierce loyalist ; and lingering distrust from a small but not insignificant slice of conservatives over his past as an aisle-crossing compromiser . ''
As the report notes , Graham 's advocacy of the controversial Barrett has been a double-edged sword ; encouraging conservative voters on one side and rallying Democrats to turn out and vote against him on the other side .
Also dogging Graham is the public 's @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a president who is highly unpopular , according to the polls , and whose faltering campaign is also dragging the South Carolina Republican 's chances with it .
`` Trump 's sagging poll numbers are creating problems for Graham .
Harrison 's campaign is blanketing the airwaves and the web with ads portraying the incumbent as untrustworthy and two-faced , pointing to his transformation into a Trump cheerleader , '' the report states .
According to House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn ( D-SC ) , `` [ Voters ] tend to have a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ they look at these candidates , and when they can see authenticity , they tend to buy into it .
That 's what Jaime has done . ''
You can read more here .

According to a report from Politico, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) is in the fight of his political life that could see his time in the Senate come to a close in November due to his close association with Donald Trump.
With his numbers in the polls showing him in a virtual tie with Democratic challenger Jamie Harrison, Graham is reportedly hoping his rush to seat Amy Coney Barrett on the Supreme Court will rally enough conservatives to turn out at the polls to stave off what would be an embarrassing defeat.
According to the report, Graham is "facing an opponent who is the best-funded Senate candidate in American history; anger from the left over his metamorphosis from scathing Trump antagonist to fierce loyalist; and lingering distrust from a small but not insignificant slice of conservatives over his past as an aisle-crossing compromiser."
As the report notes, Graham's advocacy of the controversial Barrett has been a double-edged sword; encouraging conservative voters on one side and rallying Democrats to turn out and vote against him on the other side.
Also dogging Graham is the public's view that he is too attached to a president who is highly unpopular, according to the polls, and whose faltering campaign is also dragging the South Carolina Republican's chances with it.
"Trump's sagging poll numbers are creating problems for Graham. Harrison's campaign is blanketing the airwaves and the web with ads portraying the incumbent as untrustworthy and two-faced, pointing to his transformation into a Trump cheerleader," the report states.
According to House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn (D-SC), "[Voters] tend to have a very low regard for hypocrites. And they look at these candidates, and when they can see authenticity, they tend to buy into it. That's what Jaime has done."
You can read more here.


alternet--2020-10-18--The State Department knows how much it's been funneling to Trump — but it's not going to tell you

Donald Trump makes a big show of giving away his annual paycheck to some agency each year .
He can afford to , since the Secret Service has rewarded him with two years ' worth of pay just in the money it has spent on golf carts .
Really .
And then there 's the money that the Air Force has dropped at Trump 's Scottish golf resort .
And how Trump has doubled the dues at several of his clubs so that people wanting insider access have to pony up at least $ 200,000 to bend his elbow in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that they are still having despite COVID-19 ) .
Assembling the full list of all the ways Trump has tapped his position to line his pockets over the past four years , is a project that will probably still be occupying scholars in the year 3020 .
However , there is at least one government department that seems to have taken a shot at assembling a compendium .
The State Department has put together a 450-page tome showing all the ways it slipped dollars to the boss .
That report is ready to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ after the election .
As The Washington Post reports ( and by Washington Post , I mean David Fahrenthold ) , the documents were assembled in response to a public-records lawsuit which the Post won earlier this year .
In response , the State Department had promised to release 300 pages on Thursday .
Instead , they sent the Post two ( 2 ) pages .
On those two pages : `` the receipts of a single hotel bill from Trump 's Irish golf course , involving security for Trump 's daughter-in-law and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ single bill is a slap in the face to both the public and the whole idea of transparency .
It 's also a reminder of just how wide a selection of documents the State Department has when it comes to Trump .
It 's not just Donald Trump and his massive entourage that racks up six-figure bills every single day they 're parked at one of his properties .
The entire extended first family is also traveling on the taxpayer dime , with those dimes often being channeled right back home by making @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and security personnel—stay at Trump properties .
The State Department also often picks up the tab for foreign dignitaries when they are in the United States , and they also of course pay the bill when Mike Pompeo or any of the department 's 13,000 employees are on the road .
How much of that money goes back to Trump ?
We simply do not know .
We do know that Trump never misses an opportunity to pad his own accounts .
The man who went out of his way to cash a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Republican Convention by 60 % … and that was just a virtual convention .
The prices anyone walking into a Trump hotel might face seem astoundingly fluid , with prices in December of 2019 shooting up to 13 times the normal rate , as Trump funneled money from a campaign event to his personal accounts .
A hotel room that normally went for $ 500 , was jacked up to $ 6,719 that night so that Trump could maximize his take .
How much has Trump been playing this game with government @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to maximize profit from his position ?
It 's unclear , but based on the contracts between the Trump Organization and the Secret Service , it is clear he 's not giving anyone a discount .
The Post had previously identified $ 1.2 million in government dollars that were mostly brought into Trump hotels by the travels of Ivanka , Don Jr , and Eric .
That includes $ 245,000 from the Secret Service alone .
But for an accurate look at just how much Trump is benefiting from the ability to tell @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , where to stay , and how much to pay , it will require more transparency .
Which is not forthcoming .
The State Department was supposed to hand over the documents in two batches , one on Thursday , with the second batch on Nov. 16 … two weeks after the election .
Apparently the single receipt handed over now counts as the first `` batch . ''
And if you 're waiting to see what 's in the remainder , do n't count on it arriving in November .
Or on @ @ @ @

Donald Trump makes a big show of giving away his annual paycheck to some agency each year. He can afford to, since the Secret Service has rewarded him with two years' worth of pay just in the money it has spent on golf carts. Really. And then there's the money that the Air Force has dropped at Trump's Scottish golf resort. And how Trump has doubled the dues at several of his clubs so that people wanting insider access have to pony up at least $200,000 to bend his elbow in the buffet line (for the buffets that they are still having despite COVID-19).
Assembling the full list of all the ways Trump has tapped his position to line his pockets over the past four years, is a project that will probably still be occupying scholars in the year 3020. However, there is at least one government department that seems to have taken a shot at assembling a compendium. The State Department has put together a 450-page tome showing all the ways it slipped dollars to the boss.
That report is ready to go … they're hiding it until after the election.
As The Washington Post reports (and by Washington Post, I mean David Fahrenthold), the documents were assembled in response to a public-records lawsuit which the Post won earlier this year. In response, the State Department had promised to release 300 pages on Thursday. Instead, they sent the Post two (2) pages. On those two pages: "the receipts of a single hotel bill from Trump's Irish golf course, involving security for Trump's daughter-in-law and campaign adviser Lara Trump."
That single bill is a slap in the face to both the public and the whole idea of transparency. It's also a reminder of just how wide a selection of documents the State Department has when it comes to Trump. It's not just Donald Trump and his massive entourage that racks up six-figure bills every single day they're parked at one of his properties. The entire extended first family is also traveling on the taxpayer dime, with those dimes often being channeled right back home by making sure they—and their advisors, assistants, and security personnel—stay at Trump properties.
The State Department also often picks up the tab for foreign dignitaries when they are in the United States, and they also of course pay the bill when Mike Pompeo or any of the department's 13,000 employees are on the road. How much of that money goes back to Trump? We simply do not know.
We do know that Trump never misses an opportunity to pad his own accounts. The man who went out of his way to cash a $0.13 check raised room prices during the Republican Convention by 60% … and that was just a virtual convention. The prices anyone walking into a Trump hotel might face seem astoundingly fluid, with prices in December of 2019 shooting up to 13 times the normal rate, as Trump funneled money from a campaign event to his personal accounts. A hotel room that normally went for $500, was jacked up to $6,719 that night so that Trump could maximize his take.
How much has Trump been playing this game with government visitors, charging them beyond top dollar to maximize profit from his position? It's unclear, but based on the contracts between the Trump Organization and the Secret Service, it is clear he's not giving anyone a discount.
The Post had previously identified $1.2 million in government dollars that were mostly brought into Trump hotels by the travels of Ivanka, Don Jr, and Eric. That includes $245,000 from the Secret Service alone. But for an accurate look at just how much Trump is benefiting from the ability to tell everyone in the government when to travel, where to stay, and how much to pay, it will require more transparency. Which is not forthcoming.
The State Department was supposed to hand over the documents in two batches, one on Thursday, with the second batch on Nov. 16 … two weeks after the election.
Apparently the single receipt handed over now counts as the first "batch." And if you're waiting to see what's in the remainder, don't count on it arriving in November. Or on any other date.


alternet--2020-10-18--Man arrested in plot to kidnap and murder Wichita, Kansas mayor over COVID-19 protections

Brandon Whipple , a former statehouse Democrat elected in Wichita , Kansas , was subject to a kidnapping and murder @ @ @ @ @ to another member of the Wichita city government , the suspect , Meredith Dowry , @ @ @ @ @ and then made clear his intentions .
Wichita implemented policies aimed at protecting citizens from @ @ @ @ @ some members of the community have backed conspiracy theories instead of science .
The suspect @ @ @ @ @ Wichita Police Department further investigates the matter .
In a multi-hour meeting , many members @ @ @ @ @ out against the mandate and backed conspiracies .
The mandate held , however..

Brandon Whipple, a former statehouse Democrat elected in Wichita, Kansas, was subject to a kidnapping and murder plot. In texts sent to another member of the Wichita city government, the suspect, Meredith Dowry, asked for Whipple's address and then made clear his intentions.
Wichita implemented policies aimed at protecting citizens from spread of COVID-19, but some members of the community have backed conspiracy theories instead of science.
Speaking to The Wichita Eagle:
The apparent motive was the suspect's opposition to "masks and tyranny," Whipple said.
"He said he was going to kidnap me and slash my throat and he needed my address because I needed to see the hangman — me and everyone who, something about tyranny," Whipple said.
The suspect remains in custody while the Wichita Police Department further investigates the matter.
In a multi-hour meeting, many members of the Wichita community spoke out against the mandate and backed conspiracies. The mandate held, however..


alternet--2020-10-18--Ammon Bundy is building a far-right theocratic army under the guise of defending ‘rights'

There 's been a buffoonish quality to Ammon Bundy 's brand of far-right `` constitutionalist '' politics over the past six months , primarily organized in a typically paranoid response to COVID-19-related public-health measures : Protesting at the home of a police officer who had arrested an anti-vaccination fanatic for violating the closure of a playground .
Trying to bully his way inside a health-board meeting .
Getting arrested twice in two days for ignoring his ban from the Idaho Statehouse .
Going maskless at a Caldwell High School football game that forced the game to be called off , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ but banned from future games by the local school district .
The endless antics , however , have always obfuscated a darker , much more dangerous agenda .
A disturbing new in-depth report by Devin Burghart at the Institute for Research and Education on Human Rights reveals that all the time that Bundy has been gathering media time and headlines , he 's been building a massive army of volunteers—a network called People 's Rights—intent on imposing a far-right authoritarian state , all under the guise of defending individual rights .
Bundy first @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Rights network in March , when he held a gathering not far from his home in Emmett , Idaho , discussing plans to organize people to form ad-hoc gatherings to `` defend '' local citizens against COVID-19-related `` tyranny . ''
Bundy told the audience that they did n't need to obey the governor 's stray-at-home or business-closure orders .
And he pledged to bring fellow `` Patriots '' to the rescue if anyone felt pressure from `` authorities '' to comply .
`` I will be there , '' Bundy told the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as many people as we can .
We will form a legal defense for you , a political defense for you , and we will also , if necessary , provide a physical defense for you , so that you can continue in your rights . ''
As it has played out on the ground , these gatherings have become bellicose , and frequently armed , mobs protesting police officers at their homes , breaking into health-board meetings that were being held online , and breaking down the doors inside the Statehouse and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ intimidate state legislators .
The incident resulting in the cancellation of the football game between Caldwell and Emmett high schools is emblematic of these anti-democratic intimidation tactics at work .
Bundy , whose son plays for Emmett High , showed up in Caldwell for the game without a mask—though one was required for entry—and refused to put one on , first taking a seat in the stands , then moving to a fenced area away from the stands .
As he livestreamed the exchange , Bundy refused to leave when game officials asked @ @ @ @ @ @ @ his network watching on Facebook sprang into action and began phoning 911 dispatchers in Caldwell—not merely to complain , but to threaten and intimidate .
The flood of threats was so overwhelming and worrisome that at halftime , officials announced the game was being cancelled .
`` The threats made to dispatch appear to have stemmed from the dispute between Mr. Bundy and the Caldwell School District personnel that requested he wear a mask while attending the game , '' a Caldwell police spokesman told the Idaho Statesman .
`` The calls did @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Ten days later , the district voted unanimously to ban Bundy from Caldwell school grounds for the next year .
The IREHR report explores how this is all being organized .
The People 's Rights network , it explains , has seen rapid growth fueled by `` a fusion of Bundy 's core of the far-right paramilitary supporters built up over years of armed standoffs with a mass base of new activists radicalized in protest over COVID-19 health directives . ''
Bundy devised a secure online system built on SMS text messaging to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ scrutiny or exposure .
IREHR managed to obtain access to the network , however , and reports that `` Bundy has assembled a team of 153 'assistants ' in sixteen states . ''
It goes on to identify all of those people , and found that their backgrounds include significant activism in radical right causes—and that , somewhat unusually , the majority of those local assistants are women ( though the national and state leadership remain dominated by men ) .
This network is not engaged in the usual far-right battle against `` @ @ @ @ @ @ @ usual rhetoric that surrounds `` Patriot '' groups .
Bundy 's network instead is pro-government—but one that has no compunction about erasing the rights of people its participants have deemed morally depraved : Moreover , in addition to building an `` Uber-like '' paramilitary response system that can be mobilized whenever people believe their rights are under attack from godless liberals , IREHR 's report explains that discussion within the surreptitious network go well beyond such imagined `` self-defense '' measures .
Some of the People 's Rights network participants are running for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ group 's theocratic-state agenda from within the halls of power .
Mario Perea , a People 's Rights assistant from Idaho , told would-be participants in a rally for a political candidate : `` We claim , and we use , and we defend our rights .
In order to defend our rights , we have to get people into these government positions .
That is a form of defense because we 're being attacked politically .
So we need to fight back and resist politically . ''
The politics include a sensibility @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rhetoric , particularly the rising `` Boogaloo '' talk about broad social breakdowns and violence surrounding the coming election .
Mostly , there is a fairly typical eagerness for the battle to begin .
`` Are you ready for Civil War November 4 ? ''
asked People 's Rights leader Tony Pellegrino in a Facebook post .

There's been a buffoonish quality to Ammon Bundy's brand of far-right "constitutionalist" politics over the past six months, primarily organized in a typically paranoid response to COVID-19-related public-health measures: Protesting at the home of a police officer who had arrested an anti-vaccination fanatic for violating the closure of a playground. Trying to bully his way inside a health-board meeting. Getting arrested twice in two days for ignoring his ban from the Idaho Statehouse. Going maskless at a Caldwell High School football game that forced the game to be called off, for which he was not only ejected but banned from future games by the local school district.
The endless antics, however, have always obfuscated a darker, much more dangerous agenda. A disturbing new in-depth report by Devin Burghart at the Institute for Research and Education on Human Rights reveals that all the time that Bundy has been gathering media time and headlines, he's been building a massive army of volunteers—a network called People's Rights—intent on imposing a far-right authoritarian state, all under the guise of defending individual rights.
Bundy first announced the formation of the People's Rights network in March, when he held a gathering not far from his home in Emmett, Idaho, discussing plans to organize people to form ad-hoc gatherings to "defend" local citizens against COVID-19-related "tyranny." Bundy told the audience that they didn't need to obey the governor's stray-at-home or business-closure orders. And he pledged to bring fellow "Patriots" to the rescue if anyone felt pressure from "authorities" to comply.
"I will be there," Bundy told the Idaho Press. "I will bring as many people as we can. We will form a legal defense for you, a political defense for you, and we will also, if necessary, provide a physical defense for you, so that you can continue in your rights."
As it has played out on the ground, these gatherings have become bellicose, and frequently armed, mobs protesting police officers at their homes, breaking into health-board meetings that were being held online, and breaking down the doors inside the Statehouse and attending committee meetings unmasked in order to intimidate state legislators.
The incident resulting in the cancellation of the football game between Caldwell and Emmett high schools is emblematic of these anti-democratic intimidation tactics at work.
Bundy, whose son plays for Emmett High, showed up in Caldwell for the game without a mask—though one was required for entry—and refused to put one on, first taking a seat in the stands, then moving to a fenced area away from the stands. As he livestreamed the exchange, Bundy refused to leave when game officials asked him to.
Moreover, members of his network watching on Facebook sprang into action and began phoning 911 dispatchers in Caldwell—not merely to complain, but to threaten and intimidate. The flood of threats was so overwhelming and worrisome that at halftime, officials announced the game was being cancelled.
"The threats made to dispatch appear to have stemmed from the dispute between Mr. Bundy and the Caldwell School District personnel that requested he wear a mask while attending the game," a Caldwell police spokesman told the Idaho Statesman. "The calls did specifically reference the football game."
Ten days later, the district voted unanimously to ban Bundy from Caldwell school grounds for the next year.
The IREHR report explores how this is all being organized. The People's Rights network, it explains, has seen rapid growth fueled by "a fusion of Bundy's core of the far-right paramilitary supporters built up over years of armed standoffs with a mass base of new activists radicalized in protest over COVID-19 health directives."
Bundy devised a secure online system built on SMS text messaging to enable the network to organize without public scrutiny or exposure. IREHR managed to obtain access to the network, however, and reports that "Bundy has assembled a team of 153 'assistants' in sixteen states." It goes on to identify all of those people, and found that their backgrounds include significant activism in radical right causes—and that, somewhat unusually, the majority of those local assistants are women (though the national and state leadership remain dominated by men).
This network is not engaged in the usual far-right battle against "government tyranny," which is the usual rhetoric that surrounds "Patriot" groups. Bundy's network instead is pro-government—but one that has no compunction about erasing the rights of people its participants have deemed morally depraved:
Instead of a more traditional "anti-government" narrative, People's Rights leaders have expressed a desire for governmental power to be used to protect the "righteous" against "wicked" liberals, antifa, Black Lives Matter activists, and others. Several People's Rights leaders are running for elected office—to become the government. Absent that sort of intervention, leaders have proposed a type of armed enclave-style "neighborhood" nationalism, where "righteous" neighbors stand against the "wicked." People's Rights leaders have often defined the "wicked" using far-right conspiracism, racism, antisemitism, anti-indigenous, and anti-transgender sentiment.
Moreover, in addition to building an "Uber-like" paramilitary response system that can be mobilized whenever people believe their rights are under attack from godless liberals, IREHR's report explains that discussion within the surreptitious network go well beyond such imagined "self-defense" measures.
Some of the People's Rights network participants are running for elective office, hoping to promote the group's theocratic-state agenda from within the halls of power. Mario Perea, a People's Rights assistant from Idaho, told would-be participants in a rally for a political candidate: "We claim, and we use, and we defend our rights. In order to defend our rights, we have to get people into these government positions. That is a form of defense because we're being attacked politically. So we need to fight back and resist politically."
The politics include a sensibility attuned to modern "Patriot" movement rhetoric, particularly the rising "Boogaloo" talk about broad social breakdowns and violence surrounding the coming election. Mostly, there is a fairly typical eagerness for the battle to begin.
"Are you ready for Civil War November 4?" asked People's Rights leader Tony Pellegrino in a Facebook post.


alternet--2020-10-18--Republican district in Pennsylvania Trump easily won is now a tossup: analysis

Daily Kos Elections is changing our race ratings in five more contests—four shift in the direction of the Democrats , while one moves to the right .
We also now have a total of 10 GOP-held seats rated as Lean Republican or better for Democrats .
You can find all our Senate , gubernatorial , and House ratings at each link .
• PA-10 ( Lean R to Tossup ) : Republican Rep. Scott Perry narrowly held Pennsylvania 's 10th District 51-49 last cycle , but he faces an even tougher challenge next month from state Auditor Eugene DePasquale .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ DePasquale leading Perry , and they 've simultaneously found Joe Biden out front in this Harrisburg-area seat that supported Donald Trump 52-43 in 2016 .
Perry 's allies , meanwhile , have yet to release contradictory numbers .
This district is red enough that Trump could still carry it even if he loses Pennsylvania and help get Perry across the finish line , but the incumbent no longer looks like the favorite to hang on .
• AK-Sen ( Likely R to Lean R ) : Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan began the year @ @ @ @ @ @ @ but his standing has continually eroded the closer we get to November .
We 've seen only a few polls of Alaska 's Senate race , but they 've all shown Sullivan in a tight race against orthopedic surgeon Al Gross , an independent who won the Democratic nomination in August .
Importantly , major outside groups on both sides are behaving like this seat is quite competitive and have continued to spend millions as Election Day draws nearer .
Gross has also proven to be a very strong fundraiser , and the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ expects to be badly outspent .
Sullivan still has the advantage in Alaska , which has long been a reliably red state , but the possibility of an upset looms large .
• KS-03 ( Lean D to Likely D ) : Democrat Sharice Davids won an expensive race two years ago to flip Kansas ' 3rd Congressional District , but her first reelection campaign in the Kansas City area is looking considerably less eventful .
This constituency backed Hillary Clinton 47-46 after supporting Mitt Romney 54-44 , and well-educated suburban areas like @ @ @ @ @ @ @ left since then : Democrat Laura Kelly , for instance , romped to a 56-37 win in the 3rd District in her successful bid for governor two years ago .
The only poll we 've seen was a late September survey from the Republican firm VCreek/AMG , and it showed Davis beating former state Republican Party chair Amanda Adkins 56-36 .
Importantly , major outside groups have n't spent anything here this cycle .
• NY-24 ( Lean R to Tossup ) : Republican Rep. John Katko held off Democrat Dana Balter 53-47 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ New York 's 24th Congressional District looks like it will be even more competitive .
A late September poll from Siena showed Balter ahead 42-40 , while Joe Biden led 53-34 in a Syracuse-based seat that Hillary Clinton carried just 49-45 .
Outside groups from both parties have also already spent considerably more money here than they deployed during the entire 2018 contest .
Katko is a strong campaigner who ran dramatically ahead of Trump in 2016 and managed to survive the midterm blue wave .
However , political conditions look even worse @ @ @ @ @ @ @ did two years ago , and Katko will have a tougher time holding on in November .
• OR-04 ( Safe D to Likely D ) : Veteran Democratic Rep. Peter DeFazio has always won reelection in Oregon 's 4th Congressional District with ease , but 2020 is shaping up to be his toughest contest yet .
DeFazio faces a credible challenge from former Oregon National Guardsman Alek Skarlatos , who attracted international attention in 2015 when he helped stop a terrorist attack on a Paris-bound train .
And while there has been @ @ @ @ @ @ @ decades , both parties have been airing ads in recent weeks .
This seat , which includes the southern Willamette Valley and Oregon 's southern coast , backed Hillary Clinton by a tiny 46.1-46.0 spread , and it 's possible that Donald Trump could carry it this year even if Nov. 3 is otherwise a bad night for the GOP .
DeFazio has never had trouble winning votes from ticket-splitting Republican voters before , and he 's still the front-runner , but this is one to keep an eye on .

Daily Kos Elections is changing our race ratings in five more contests—four shift in the direction of the Democrats, while one moves to the right. We also now have a total of 10 GOP-held seats rated as Lean Republican or better for Democrats. You can find all our Senate, gubernatorial, and House ratings at each link.
• PA-10 (Lean R to Tossup): Republican Rep. Scott Perry narrowly held Pennsylvania's 10th District 51-49 last cycle, but he faces an even tougher challenge next month from state Auditor Eugene DePasquale. National Democrats have released several polls showing DePasquale leading Perry, and they've simultaneously found Joe Biden out front in this Harrisburg-area seat that supported Donald Trump 52-43 in 2016. Perry's allies, meanwhile, have yet to release contradictory numbers. This district is red enough that Trump could still carry it even if he loses Pennsylvania and help get Perry across the finish line, but the incumbent no longer looks like the favorite to hang on.
• AK-Sen (Likely R to Lean R): Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan began the year looking like a lock for reelection, but his standing has continually eroded the closer we get to November. We've seen only a few polls of Alaska's Senate race, but they've all shown Sullivan in a tight race against orthopedic surgeon Al Gross, an independent who won the Democratic nomination in August.
Importantly, major outside groups on both sides are behaving like this seat is quite competitive and have continued to spend millions as Election Day draws nearer. Gross has also proven to be a very strong fundraiser, and the senator's campaign has reportedly said it expects to be badly outspent. Sullivan still has the advantage in Alaska, which has long been a reliably red state, but the possibility of an upset looms large.
• KS-03 (Lean D to Likely D): Democrat Sharice Davids won an expensive race two years ago to flip Kansas' 3rd Congressional District, but her first reelection campaign in the Kansas City area is looking considerably less eventful. This constituency backed Hillary Clinton 47-46 after supporting Mitt Romney 54-44, and well-educated suburban areas like this have moved even further to the left since then: Democrat Laura Kelly, for instance, romped to a 56-37 win in the 3rd District in her successful bid for governor two years ago.
The only poll we've seen was a late September survey from the Republican firm VCreek/AMG, and it showed Davis beating former state Republican Party chair Amanda Adkins 56-36. Importantly, major outside groups haven't spent anything here this cycle.
• NY-24 (Lean R to Tossup): Republican Rep. John Katko held off Democrat Dana Balter 53-47 last cycle, but their rematch in New York's 24th Congressional District looks like it will be even more competitive. A late September poll from Siena showed Balter ahead 42-40, while Joe Biden led 53-34 in a Syracuse-based seat that Hillary Clinton carried just 49-45. Outside groups from both parties have also already spent considerably more money here than they deployed during the entire 2018 contest.
Katko is a strong campaigner who ran dramatically ahead of Trump in 2016 and managed to survive the midterm blue wave. However, political conditions look even worse for the GOP this time than they did two years ago, and Katko will have a tougher time holding on in November.
• OR-04 (Safe D to Likely D): Veteran Democratic Rep. Peter DeFazio has always won reelection in Oregon's 4th Congressional District with ease, but 2020 is shaping up to be his toughest contest yet. DeFazio faces a credible challenge from former Oregon National Guardsman Alek Skarlatos, who attracted international attention in 2015 when he helped stop a terrorist attack on a Paris-bound train. And while there has been next to no outside spending here in decades, both parties have been airing ads in recent weeks.
This seat, which includes the southern Willamette Valley and Oregon's southern coast, backed Hillary Clinton by a tiny 46.1-46.0 spread, and it's possible that Donald Trump could carry it this year even if Nov. 3 is otherwise a bad night for the GOP. DeFazio has never had trouble winning votes from ticket-splitting Republican voters before, and he's still the front-runner, but this is one to keep an eye on.


alternet--2020-10-18--Trump hold for super-spreader rally in Wisconsin — despite warnings of otherwise 'preventable deaths

Trump hold for super-spreader rally in Wisconsin — despite warnings of otherwise 'preventable deaths'

With the state of Wisconsin considered `` an epicenter of the pandemic in the United States '' and an internal White House memo just days ago putting it in the `` red zone '' for Covid-19 spread , President Donald Trump is being freshly accused of `` callous disregard for the lives and health of others '' in the state by holding a Saturday rally that public health experts warn will likely lead to death and further illness that otherwise could be prevented .
Saturday 's rally is taking place even though top public health officials within Trump 's administration @ @ @ @ @ @ @ kill more people .
As the Guardian reports : With the rally set to take place in a rural area outside of Janesville , it was reported that attendees would be forced to take shuttle buses—only increasing their exposure to the virus—to get to the event site .
Just days ago , the state was forced to open an emergency field hospital outside Milwaukee due to the surge in cases .
On Wednesday , Julie Willems Van Dijk , Deputy Secretary of Wisconsin Department of Health Services , explained to the Capital Times @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 's overall health care system was `` in crisis '' mode .
`` Many of our ICUs are strained , '' Van Dijk said .
`` And every region of our state has one or more hospitals reporting current and imminent staff shortages . ''
Rep. Mark Pocan ( D-Wis. ) , co-chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus , decried Trump 's decision to go through with the rally , calling it a potential `` super-spreader '' event that will cost people their lives .
`` Wisconsin has had over 10,000 COVID cases @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Friday night , and asked Trump : `` Why are you still holding a super-spreader rally here ? ''
Pocan later tweeted a video detailing Trump 's callous disregard and calling on Wisconsites , regardless of political affiliation , to `` stay home ; avoid large gatherings ; wear a mask '' in order to stay healthy and prevent further spread of the virus .
Pocan was hardly alone in characterizing the Wisconsin rally this way .
Kara Purviance , chair of the Rock County Board of Supervisors in Wisconsin , appeared on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ president 's dangerous decision to hold the weekend rally despite record infection rates in the state : Speaking with CPI for its reporting on the White House 's internal task force memo , William Hanage , a Harvard epidemiologist said the fact that the Trump campaign is making rally attendees agree to liability waivers in case they later become sick with Covid-19 , `` indicates they know the reality because if they were n't worried about it then they would n't bother '' having people sign them .
`` Given the rates of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ told CPI , `` we can say pretty categorically this is going to produce opportunity for transmission . ''
Wisconsin 's Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin on Friday lambasted Trump for coming to the state for a campaign stop even as he has refused her repeated requests for increased medical equipment that have been in short supply for months .
On Friday evening , she tweeted : '' On April 13 , 2020 , I wrote to you on behalf of Wisconsinites calling for the supplies needed to combat the Covid-19 pandemic , '' @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sent to the White House on Friday .
`` In my letter , I urged you to act to deliver this assistance swiftly .
It is now six months later , and Wisconsin is still experiencing supply shortages , which could n't come at a worse time .
Wisconsin is currently experiencing one of the most serious outbreaks in the nation , and health care providers continue to share concerns about supply shortages .
It is long past time for you to show leadership and take action to support our state with the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ''

With the state of Wisconsin considered "an epicenter of the pandemic in the United States" and an internal White House memo just days ago putting it in the "red zone" for Covid-19 spread, President Donald Trump is being freshly accused of "callous disregard for the lives and health of others" in the state by holding a Saturday rally that public health experts warn will likely lead to death and further illness that otherwise could be prevented.
Saturday's rally is taking place even though top public health officials within Trump's administration warned this week that such events would kill more people. As the Guardianreports:
Earlier this week, Trump's own White House task force issued a warning to Wisconsin, which is considered to be in the "red zone" for high infection rates, saying people should avoid crowds if they want do not want to cause "preventable deaths."
The warning was included in a weekly report issued to governors but not made public. It was reported by the Center for Public Integrity (CPI), an investigative non-profit in Washington.
With the rally set to take place in a rural area outside of Janesville, it was reported that attendees would be forced to take shuttle buses—only increasing their exposure to the virus—to get to the event site.
Just days ago, the state was forced to open an emergency field hospital outside Milwaukee due to the surge in cases. On Wednesday, Julie Willems Van Dijk, Deputy Secretary of Wisconsin Department of Health Services, explained to the Capital Times that the facility was opened because Wisconsin's overall health care system was "in crisis" mode. "Many of our ICUs are strained," Van Dijk said. "And every region of our state has one or more hospitals reporting current and imminent staff shortages."
Rep. Mark Pocan (D-Wis.), co-chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, decried Trump's decision to go through with the rally, calling it a potential "super-spreader" event that will cost people their lives.
"Wisconsin has had over 10,000 COVID cases in three days," Pocan tweeted Friday night, and asked Trump: "Why are you still holding a super-spreader rally here?"
Pocan later tweeted a video detailing Trump's callous disregard and calling on Wisconsites, regardless of political affiliation, to "stay home; avoid large gatherings; wear a mask" in order to stay healthy and prevent further spread of the virus.
Pocan was hardly alone in characterizing the Wisconsin rally this way. Kara Purviance, chair of the Rock County Board of Supervisors in Wisconsin, appeared on CNN Friday night and also condemned the president's dangerous decision to hold the weekend rally despite record infection rates in the state:
Speaking with CPI for its reporting on the White House's internal task force memo, William Hanage, a Harvard epidemiologist said the fact that the Trump campaign is making rally attendees agree to liability waivers in case they later become sick with Covid-19, "indicates they know the reality because if they weren't worried about it then they wouldn't bother" having people sign them.
"Given the rates of disease currently in Wisconsin," Hanage told CPI, "we can say pretty categorically this is going to produce opportunity for transmission."
Wisconsin's Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin on Friday lambasted Trump for coming to the state for a campaign stop even as he has refused her repeated requests for increased medical equipment that have been in short supply for months. On Friday evening, she tweeted:
"On April 13, 2020, I wrote to you on behalf of Wisconsinites calling for the supplies needed to combat the Covid-19 pandemic," Baldwin wrote to Trump in a letter sent to the White House on Friday. "In my letter, I urged you to act to deliver this assistance swiftly. It is now six months later, and Wisconsin is still experiencing supply shortages, which couldn't come at a worse time. Wisconsin is currently experiencing one of the most serious outbreaks in the nation, and health care providers continue to share concerns about supply shortages. It is long past time for you to show leadership and take action to support our state with the supplies that we need and deserve."