alternet--2020-10-27--Why a new opinion from Brett Kavanaugh is disturbing to so many readers

Just about the time the Senate was voting 52-48 to confirm Amy Coney Barrett to become the ninth justice on the Supreme Court , the court itself released a decision Monday night on an election case centered on Wisconsin , a key swing state .
By a 5-3 ruling , the conservative majority upheld a decision blocking a district court from extending the state 's deadline for accepting mail-in ballots .
Because of the court 's decision , Wisconsin voters ' mail-in ballots wo n't count unless they arrive at the election office by Election Day itself , Nov. 3 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that day .
That means anyone mailing in a ballot in Wisconsin who has n't done so already should try to find alternatives to mailing in their ballots if they 're not confident the postal service , which has recently faced longer delays than normal , will deliver it on time .
Some election offices will accept ballots delivered in person , and some set up official drop boxes where voters can deposit their ballots without having to rely on the postal service at all .
( Wisconsin voters can find more information @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was disappointing for those who would like to voting access expanded and for as many ballots as possible to count , it was n't unexpected .
The conservative majority , which will shortly be expanded to six out of nine justices with the addition of Barrett , has proven itself hostile to efforts to expand the franchise .
What really disturbed many close readers of the case was n't the predictable if unfortunate conclusion — it was a concurrence written by Justice Brett Kavanaugh .
One passage , in particular , drew a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to echo many of President Donald Trump 's disturbing efforts to delegitimize the elections ahead of time : For important reasons , most States , including Wisconsin , require absentee ballots to be received by election day , not just mailed by election day .
Those States want to avoid the chaos and suspicions of impropriety that can ensue if thousands of absentee ballots flow in after election day and potentially flip the results of an election .
And those States also want to be able to definitively announce the results of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ soon as possible thereafter .
Moreover , particularly in a Presidential election , counting all the votes quickly can help the State promptly resolve any disputes , address any need for recounts , and begin the process of canvassing and certifying the election results in an expeditious manner .
See 3 U. S. C. §5 .
The States are aware of the risks described by Professor Pildes : `` [ L ] ate-arriving ballots open up one of the greatest risks of what might , in our era of hyperpolarized political parties and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
If the apparent winner the morning after the election ends up losing due to late-arriving ballots , charges of a rigged election could explode . ''
Pildes , How to Accommodate a Massive Surge in Absentee Voting , U. Chi .
L. Rev .
Online ( June 26 , 2020 ) ( online source archived at www.supremecourt.gov ) .
The `` longer after Election Day any significant changes in vote totals take place , the greater the risk that the losing side will cry that the election has been stolen . ''
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ it might have been ignored .
But instead , Kavanaugh went on at length casting doubt on election results that take awhile to fully count , even though this is commonplace in the United States .
And it seemed in line with many comments Trump has made trying to cast doubt on the election , including a tweet he sent Monday night ( partially censored by Twitter because it violates rules around election misinformation ) : Trump has also said he expects a dispute about the election to go before the Supreme Court @ @ @ @ @ @ @ n't win unless the conservative judiciary hands him victory .
Kavanaugh might be indicating that the president would have at least one receptive justice .
JUSTICE KAVANAUGH alleges that `` suspicions of impropriety '' will result if `` absentee ballots flow in after election day and potentially flip the results of an election . ''
Ante , at 7 .
But there are no results to `` flip '' until all valid votes are counted .
And nothing could be more `` suspicio [ us ] '' or `` improp [ er ] @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the clock strikes 12 on election night .
To suggest otherwise , especially in these fractious times , is to disserve the electoral process .
However , it 's possible Kavanaugh 's remarks were being over-interpreted by critics .
In the context of his ruling , he was arguing that states may have the concerns he cites as a reason for having a strict Election Day deadline for receiving ballots , and that federal judges should respect that decision .
That 's not the same as saying the considerations are overriding or definitive @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the subsequent paragraph that other states may legitimately make different decisions : One may disagree with a State 's policy choice to require that absentee ballots be received by election day .
Indeed , some States require only that absentee ballots be mailed by election day .
...
But the States requiring that absentee ballots be received by election day do so for weighty reasons that warrant judicial respect .
Federal courts have no business disregarding those state interests simply because the federal courts believe that later deadlines would be better .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ went to describe the concerns about ballots coming in after Election Day and the credulity he showed is understandably concerning .
There 's another portion of Kavanaugh 's remarks that also caused significant alarm among some court watchers , though the issue is more technical .
In a footnote , he approvingly cited former Chief Justice William Rehnquist 's concurring opinion in the infamous 2000 election case Bush v. Gore , which handed the Republican candidate victory in the year 's disputed presidential election .
Kavanaugh 's footnote echoed one part of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not even all five conservative justices in the majority would sign on to it and which asserted the power of the Supreme Court to overrule state courts on matters of state law .
This assertion is a massive expansion of the federal judiciary 's power , a particularly notable gambit at a time conservatives are securing a two-thirds stranglehold on the highest court .
It also suggests that the Supreme Court could have even more power to insert itself into a disputed election than might otherwise be the case .
`` This is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 's Mark Joseph Stern .
`` I ca n't believe he put it in a footnote .
This is terrifying . ''
Others pointed out , however , that it 's notable that Kavanaugh alone signed his concurrence , suggesting that the views he expressed therein are not widely held on the court .
Chief Justice John Roberts even wrote a short concurrence explaining that there was a difference between the current Wisconsin case , which involved the Supreme Court ruling against the actions of a federal district court , and a recent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was whether to overturn the actions of state supreme court .
Roberts did not expound on what these differences are .

Just about the time the Senate was voting 52-48 to confirm Amy Coney Barrett to become the ninth justice on the Supreme Court, the court itself released a decision Monday night on an election case centered on Wisconsin, a key swing state.
By a 5-3 ruling, the conservative majority upheld a decision blocking a district court from extending the state's deadline for accepting mail-in ballots. Because of the court's decision, Wisconsin voters' mail-in ballots won't count unless they arrive at the election office by Election Day itself, Nov. 3, even if they're postmarked before that day. That means anyone mailing in a ballot in Wisconsin who hasn't done so already should try to find alternatives to mailing in their ballots if they're not confident the postal service, which has recently faced longer delays than normal, will deliver it on time. Some election offices will accept ballots delivered in person, and some set up official drop boxes where voters can deposit their ballots without having to rely on the postal service at all. (Wisconsin voters can find more information here.)
But while the decision was disappointing for those who would like to voting access expanded and for as many ballots as possible to count, it wasn't unexpected. The conservative majority, which will shortly be expanded to six out of nine justices with the addition of Barrett, has proven itself hostile to efforts to expand the franchise.
What really disturbed many close readers of the case wasn't the predictable if unfortunate conclusion — it was a concurrence written by Justice Brett Kavanaugh.
One passage, in particular, drew a lot of attention, because it seemed to echo many of President Donald Trump's disturbing efforts to delegitimize the elections ahead of time:
For important reasons, most States, including Wisconsin, require absentee ballots to be received by election day, not just mailed by election day. Those States want to avoid the chaos and suspicions of impropriety that can ensue if thousands of absentee ballots flow in after election day and potentially flip the results of an election. And those States also want to be able to definitively announce the results of the election on election night, or as soon as possible thereafter. Moreover, particularly in a Presidential election, counting all the votes quickly can help the State promptly resolve any disputes, address any need for recounts, and begin the process of canvassing and certifying the election results in an expeditious manner. See 3 U. S. C. §5. The States are aware of the risks described by Professor Pildes: "[L]ate-arriving ballots open up one of the greatest risks of what might, in our era of hyperpolarized political parties and existential politics, destabilize the election result. If the apparent winner the morning after the election ends up losing due to late-arriving ballots, charges of a rigged election could explode." Pildes, How to Accommodate a Massive Surge in Absentee Voting, U. Chi. L. Rev. Online (June 26, 2020) (online source archived at www.supremecourt.gov). The "longer after Election Day any significant changes in vote totals take place, the greater the risk that the losing side will cry that the election has been stolen."
Had this been a throwaway sentence, it might have been ignored. But instead, Kavanaugh went on at length casting doubt on election results that take awhile to fully count, even though this is commonplace in the United States. And it seemed in line with many comments Trump has made trying to cast doubt on the election, including a tweet he sent Monday night (partially censored by Twitter because it violates rules around election misinformation):
Trump has also said he expects a dispute about the election to go before the Supreme Court, clearly suggesting he thinks he can't win unless the conservative judiciary hands him victory. Kavanaugh might be indicating that the president would have at least one receptive justice.
In a dissent, Justice Elena Kagan criticized Kavanaugh's remarks:
JUSTICE KAVANAUGH alleges that "suspicions of impropriety" will result if "absentee ballots flow in after election day and potentially flip the results of an election." Ante, at 7. But there are no results to "flip" until all valid votes are counted. And nothing could be more "suspicio[us]" or "improp[er]" than refusing to tally votes once the clock strikes 12 on election night. To suggest otherwise, especially in these fractious times, is to disserve the electoral process.
However, it's possible Kavanaugh's remarks were being over-interpreted by critics. In the context of his ruling, he was arguing that states may have the concerns he cites as a reason for having a strict Election Day deadline for receiving ballots, and that federal judges should respect that decision. That's not the same as saying the considerations are overriding or definitive in all cases, and he admitted in the subsequent paragraph that other states may legitimately make different decisions:
One may disagree with a State's policy choice to require that absentee ballots be received by election day. Indeed, some States require only that absentee ballots be mailed by election day. ... But the States requiring that absentee ballots be received by election day do so for weighty reasons that warrant judicial respect. Federal courts have no business disregarding those state interests simply because the federal courts believe that later deadlines would be better.
Still, the length at which he went to describe the concerns about ballots coming in after Election Day and the credulity he showed is understandably concerning.
There's another portion of Kavanaugh's remarks that also caused significant alarm among some court watchers, though the issue is more technical. In a footnote, he approvingly cited former Chief Justice William Rehnquist's concurring opinion in the infamous 2000 election case Bush v. Gore, which handed the Republican candidate victory in the year's disputed presidential election.
Kavanaugh's footnote echoed one part of the concurrence, which was so extreme that not even all five conservative justices in the majority would sign on to it and which asserted the power of the Supreme Court to overrule state courts on matters of state law. This assertion is a massive expansion of the federal judiciary's power, a particularly notable gambit at a time conservatives are securing a two-thirds stranglehold on the highest court. It also suggests that the Supreme Court could have even more power to insert itself into a disputed election than might otherwise be the case.
"This is a red alert," said Slate's Mark Joseph Stern. "I can't believe he put it in a footnote. This is terrifying."
Others pointed out, however, that it's notable that Kavanaugh alone signed his concurrence, suggesting that the views he expressed therein are not widely held on the court. Chief Justice John Roberts even wrote a short concurrence explaining that there was a difference between the current Wisconsin case, which involved the Supreme Court ruling against the actions of a federal district court, and a recent Pennsylvania case, in which the question was whether to overturn the actions of state supreme court. Roberts did not expound on what these differences are.


alternet--2020-10-27--The nightmare Joe Biden could inherit

The nightmare Joe Biden could inherit

Donald Trump is n't just inside the heads of his Trumpster base ; he 's long been a consuming obsession among those yearning for his defeat in November .
With barely more than a week to go before the election of our lifetime , those given to nail biting as a response to anxiety have by now gnawed ourselves down to the quick .
And many have found other ways to manage ( or mismanage ) their apprehensions through compulsive rituals , which only ratchet up the angst of the moment , among them nonstop poll tracking , endless `` @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and repeated refrigerator raids .
As one of those doomsday types , let me briefly suggest a few of the commonplace dystopian possibilities for November .
Trump gets the majority of the votes cast in person on November 3rd .
A Pew Research Center survey found that 60 % of those supporting the president intend to vote that way on Election Day compared to 23 % of Biden supporters ; and a Washington Post-University of Maryland poll likewise revealed a sizable difference between Republicans and Democrats , though not as large .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ after all mail-in and absentee ballots are counted .
Once every ballot is finally tabulated , Biden prevails in the popular vote and ekes out a win in the Electoral College .
The president , however , having convinced his faithful that voting by mail will result in industrial-scale fraud ( unless he wins , of course ) , proclaims that he -- and `` the American people '' -- have been robbed by the establishment .
On cue , outraged Trumpsters , some of them armed , take to the streets .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ The president 's army of lawyers frenetically file court briefs contesting the election results and feverishly await a future Supreme Court decision , Mitch McConnell having helpfully rammed through Amy Coney Barrett 's nomination to produce a 6-3 conservative majority ( including three Trump-appointed Supremes ) that will likely favor him in any disputed election case .
Or the vote tally shows that Trump did n't prevail in pivotal states , but in state legislatures with Republican majorities , local GOP leaders appoint electors from their party anyway , defying the popular will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , of the Constitution , which does n't flat-out prohibit such a stratagem .
That was one possibility Barton Gellman explored in his bombshell Atlantic piece on the gambits Trump could use to snatch victory ( of a sort ) from the jaws of a Biden victory .
Then there are the sundry wag-the-dog plots , including a desperate Trump trying to generate a pre-election rally-around-the-flag effect by starting a war with Iran -- precisely what , in 2011 , he predicted Barack Obama would do to boost his chances for reelection .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ just part of a long list of nightmarish possibilities .
Whatever your most dreaded outcome , dwelling on it does n't make for happiness or even ephemeral relief .
Ultimately , it 's not under your control .
Besides , no one knows what will happen , and some prominent pundits have dismissed such apocalyptic soothsaying with assurances that the system will work the way it 's supposed to and foil Trumpian malfeasance .
Here 's hoping .
In the meantime , let 's summon what passes for optimism these days .
Imagine @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Biden wins the popular vote tally and the Electoral College .
The GOP 's leaders discover that they do , in fact , have backbones ( or at least the instinct for political survival ) , refusing to echo Trump 's rants about rigging .
The president rages but then does go , unquietly , into the night .
Most of my friends on the left assume that a new dawn would then emerge .
In some respects , it indeed will .
Biden wo n't be a serial liar .
That @ @ @ @ @ @ @ middle of this year , Trump had made false or misleading pronouncements of one sort or another more than 20,000 times since becoming president .
Nor will we have a president who winks and nods at far-right groups or racist `` militias , '' nor one who blasts a governor -- instead of expressing shock and solidarity -- soon after the FBI foils a plot by right-wing extremists to kidnap her for taking steps to suppress the coronavirus .
We wo n't have a president who repeatedly intimates that he will remain in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
We wo n't have a president who ca n't bring himself to appeal to Americans to display their patriotism through the simple act of donning masks to protect others ( and themselves ) from Covid-19 .
And we wo n't have a president who lacks the compassion to express sorrow over the 225,000 Americans ( and rising ) who have been killed by that disease , or enough respect for science and professional expertise , to say nothing of humility , to refrain from declaring , as his own experts squirm , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to vanish miraculously or that injections of disinfectant will destroy it .
And these , of course , wo n't be minor victories .
Still , Joe Biden 's arrival in the Oval Office wo n't alter one mega-fact : Donald Trump will hand him a monstrous economic mess .
Worse , in the almost three months between November 3rd and January 20th , rest assured that he will dedicate himself to making it even bigger .
The motivation ?
Sheer spite for having been put in the position -- we know that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ his defeat -- of facing what , for him , may be more unbearable than death itself : losing .
The gargantuan challenge of putting the economy back on the rails while also battling the pandemic would be hard enough for any new president without the lame-duck commander-in-chief and Senate Republicans sabotaging his efforts before he even begins .
The long stretch between Election Day and Inauguration Day will provide Donald Trump ample time to take his revenge on a people who will have forsaken , in his opinion , the best president @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , but first , let 's take stock of what awaits Biden should he win in November .
To say that we are , in some respects , experiencing the biggest economic disaster since the Great Depression of the 1930s is anything but hyperbole .
The statistics make that clear .
The economy had contracted at a staggering annual rate of 31.4 % during the second quarter of this pandemic year .
During the 2007-2009 Great Recession , unemployment , at its height , was 10 % .
This year 's high point @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Over the spring , 40 million jobs disappeared , eviscerating all gains made during the two pre-pandemic years .
There were , however , some relatively recent signs of a rebound .
The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank 's survey of economic forecasters , released in mid-August , yielded an estimate of a 19.1 % expansion for the third quarter of 2020 .
But that optimism came in the wake of Congress passing the Coronavirus Aid , Relief , and Economic Security ( CARES ) Act , on March 27th , which pumped @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The slowdown in job growth between July and September suggests that its salutary effects may be petering out .
Even with that uptick , the economy remains in far worse shape than before the virus started romping through the landscape .
However , while useful , aggregate figures obscure stark variations in how the pain produced by a Covid-19 economy has been felt across different parts of American society .
No , we are n't all in this together , if by `` together '' you mean anything remotely resembling equalized distress @ @ @ @ @ @ @ BLS ) release , for instance , reveals that September 's 7.9 % nationwide unemployment rate hit some groups far harder than others .
The jobless rate for whites dropped to 7 % , but for Hispanics it was 10.3 % , for African Americans 12.1 % .
Furthermore , high-skill , high-wage workers have gotten off far more lightly than those whose jobs ca n't be done from home , including restaurant servers and cooks , construction workers , meatpackers , housecleaners , agricultural laborers , subway , bus , and taxi @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and hotel staff , among others .
For workers like them , essential public health precautions , whether `` social distancing '' or stay-at-home decrees , have n't just been an inconvenience .
They have proven economically devastating .
These are the Americans who are struggling hardest to buy food and pay the rent .
More than 25 million of them fall in the lowest 20 % of the earnings scale and -- no surprise here -- have , at best , the most meager savings .
According to the Fed 's calculations @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Americans , only 11 % have what they require for at least six months of basic expenses and less than 17 % for at least three .
Yes , unemployment insurance helps , but depending on the state , it covers just 30 % to 50 % of lost wages .
Moreover , there 's no telling when , or whether , such workers will be rehired or find new jobs that pay at least as much .
The data on long-term unemployment is n't encouraging .
The BLS reports that , in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ unemployed for 27 weeks or more , another 4.9 million for 15 to 27 weeks .
These disparities and the steps the Fed has taken , including keeping interest rates low and buying treasury bills , mortgage-backed securities , and corporate bonds , help explain why high stock prices and massive economic suffering have coexisted , however incongruously , during the pandemic .
The problem with bull markets , however , is that they do n't bring direct gains to the chunk of American society that 's been hurt the most .
Nearly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at all , according to the Federal Reserve Bank , even if you count pension and 401k plans or Individual Retirement Accounts -- and for black and Hispanic families the numbers are 69 % and 72 % , respectively .
Furthermore , the wealthiest 10 % of households own 84 % of all stock .
Trump preens when the stock market soars , as he did on April 10th , when 16 million Americans had just filed for unemployment .
Tweets trumpeting `` the biggest Stock Market increase since 1974 '' were cold @ @ @ @ @ @ @ count on paychecks .
Even such numbers do n't fully reveal the ways in which prolonged joblessness has upended lives .
To get a glimpse of that , consider how low-income workers , contending with extended unemployment , have struggled to pay for two basic necessities : housing and food .
Reuters reported in late July that Americans already owed $ 21.5 billion in back rent .
Worse yet , 17.3 million of the country 's 44 million renter households could n't afford to pay the landlord and faced possible eviction .
A @ @ @ @ @ @ @ partial payments that month or had n't paid anything .
Again , not surprisingly , some were in more trouble than others .
In September , 12 % of whites owed back rent compared to 25 % of African Americans , 24 % of Asians , and 22 % of Latinos .
A May Census Bureau survey revealed that nearly 45 % of African Americans and Hispanics but `` only '' 20 % of whites had little or no confidence in their ability to make their June rent payments .
( Households with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ . )
The rent crunch also varied depending on a worker 's education , a reliable predictor of earnings .
Workers with high school diplomas earned only 60 % as much as workers who had graduated from college and only 50 % of those with a master 's degree .
And the more education workers had , the less likely they were to be laid off .
Between February and August , 2.5 % of employees with college degrees lost their jobs compared to nearly 11 % of those who had n't attended @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Americans most likely to be at risk of eviction .
Yes , the federal government , states , and cities have issued rent moratoriums , but the protections in them varied considerably and , by August , they had ended in 24 of the 43 states that enacted them ; nor did they release renters from future obligations to pay what they owe , sometimes with penalties .
In addition , eviction stays have n't stopped landlords nationwide from taking thousands of delinquent renters to court and even , depending on state @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The courts are clogged with such cases .
Eventually , millions of renters could face what a BBC report called a potential `` avalanche '' of evictions .
Nor have homeowners been safe .
The CARES Act did include provisions to protect some of them , offering those with federal-backed mortgages the possibility of six-month payment deferrals , potential six-month extensions of that , and the possibility of negotiating affordable payment plans thereafter .
In many cases , however , that `` forbearance '' initiative has n't worked as intended .
Often , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ were n't aware that they had to file a formal request with their lenders to qualify or got the run around when they tried to do so .
Still , mortgage forbearance helped millions , but it expires in March 2021 when many homeowners could still be jobless or have new jobs that do n't pay as well .
Just how desperate such people will be depends , of course , on how strongly Covid-19 resurges , what future shutdowns it produces , and when it will truly subside .
Meanwhile , according @ @ @ @ @ @ @ residential mortgage delinquency rate hit 8.22 % as the second quarter of 2020 ended , the highest since 2014 .
Meanwhile , between June and July , mortgage payments overdue 90 or more days increased by 20 % to a total unseen since 2010 .
True , we 're not yet headed for defaults and foreclosures on the scale of the Great Recession of 2007-2008 , but that 's a very high bar .
As for hunger , a September Census Bureau survey reports that 10.5 % of adults , or 23 million @ @ @ @ @ @ @ n't getting enough to eat .
That 's a sharp increase from the 3.7 % in a Department of Agriculture survey for 2019 .
In July , the Wall Street Journal reported , 12 % of adults said their families did n't have enough food ( compared to 10 % in May ) .
A fifth of them lacked the money to feed their kids adequately , a three-percent increase from May .
Recent food-insecurity estimates for households with children range from 27.5 % to 29.5 % .
Meanwhile , enrollments in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2008 as the Food Stamp Program ) grew by 17 % between February and May , forcing the government to increase its funding .
Food banks , overwhelmed by demand , are pleading for money and volunteers .
In August , a mile-long line of cars formed outside a food bank in Dallas , one of many such poignant scenes in cities across the country since the pandemic struck .
What Happens After the Election ?
For those who have lost their jobs , the CARES Act provided $ 600 a week to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a one-time payment of $ 1,250 per adult and $ 2,400 for married couples .
That stipend , though , ended on July 31st when the Republican Senate balked at renewing it .
In August , by executive order , the president directed the Federal Emergency Management Agency to step in with three weeks of $ 300 payments , which were extended for another three .
That , however , was half what they would have received had the CARES supplement been extended and , by October , most states had used up @ @ @ @ @ @ @ congressional negotiations over prolonging supplemental benefits and other assistance , President Trump engaged , only to disengage .
With a September ABC News/IPSOS voter survey showing that just 35 % of the public approved of his handling of the pandemic , and Joe Biden having opened a double-digit lead in many polls , the president suddenly offered a $ 1.8 trillion version of the CARES Act , only to encounter massive blowback from his own party .
And that 's where we are as the election looms .
If Trump loses ( and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hand Joe Biden an economic disaster of the first order that he 's made infinitely worse by belittling mask-wearing and social distancing , disregarding and undercutting his administration 's own medical experts , peddling absurd nostrums , and offering rosy but baseless prognostications .
And between November 3rd , Election Day , and January 20th , Inauguration Day , expect -- hard as it might be to imagine -- an angrier , more vengeful Trump .
For now , as his prospects for victory seem to dim , he has good reason to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ seen as favoring , additional aid , but here 's a guarantee : if he loses in November , he wo n't just moan about election rigging , he 'll also lose all interest in providing more help to millions of Americans at the edge of penury and despair .
Vindictiveness , not sympathy , will be his response , even to his base , for whom he clearly has a barely secret disdain .
So accept this guarantee , as well : between those two dates , whatever he does will be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
That includes working to make the climb as steep as possible for the rival he 's depicted as a semi-senile incompetent .
He will want only one thing : to see his successor fail .
Once Trump formally hands over the presidency -- assuming his every maneuver to retain power flops -- he 'll work to portray any measure the new administration adopts to corral the virus he helped let loose and to aid those in need as profligacy , and as `` socialism '' and governmental overreach imperiling freedom .
Last @ @ @ @ @ @ @ minute getting his wrecking operation underway , while `` his '' party will posture as the paragon of financial rectitude .
It wo n't matter that Republican administrations have racked up the biggest budget deficits in our history .
They , too , will ferociously resist Biden 's efforts to help millions of struggling Americans .
And think of all of this , assuming Biden wins , as the `` good news . ''
Rajan Menon , a TomDispatch regular , is the Anne and Bernard Spitzer Professor of International Relations at the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ York , senior research fellow at Columbia University 's Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies , and a non-resident fellow at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft .
His latest book is The Conceit of Humanitarian Intervention .
Follow TomDispatch on Twitter and join us on Facebook .
Check out the newest Dispatch Books , John Feffer 's new dystopian novel ( the second in the Splinterlands series ) Frostlands , Beverly Gologorsky 's novel Every Body Has a Story , and Tom Engelhardt 's A Nation Unmade by War , as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Shadows of the American Century : The Rise and Decline of U.S .
Global Power and John Dower 's The Violent American Century : War and Terror Since World War II .

Donald Trump isn't just inside the heads of his Trumpster base; he's long been a consuming obsession among those yearning for his defeat in November. With barely more than a week to go before the election of our lifetime, those given to nail biting as a response to anxiety have by now gnawed ourselves down to the quick. And many have found other ways to manage (or mismanage) their apprehensions through compulsive rituals, which only ratchet up the angst of the moment, among them nonstop poll tracking, endless "what if" doomsday-scenario conversations with friends, and repeated refrigerator raids.
As one of those doomsday types, let me briefly suggest a few of the commonplace dystopian possibilities for November. Trump gets the majority of the votes cast in person on November 3rd. A Pew Research Center survey found that 60% of those supporting the president intend to vote that way on Election Day compared to 23% of Biden supporters; and a Washington Post-University of Maryland poll likewise revealed a sizable difference between Republicans and Democrats, though not as large. He does, however, lose handily after all mail-in and absentee ballots are counted. Once every ballot is finally tabulated, Biden prevails in the popular vote and ekes out a win in the Electoral College. The president, however, having convinced his faithful that voting by mail will result in industrial-scale fraud (unless he wins, of course), proclaims that he -- and "the American people" -- have been robbed by the establishment. On cue, outraged Trumpsters, some of them armed, take to the streets. Chaos, even violence, ensues. The president's army of lawyers frenetically file court briefs contesting the election results and feverishly await a future Supreme Court decision, Mitch McConnell having helpfully rammed through Amy Coney Barrett's nomination to produce a 6-3 conservative majority (including three Trump-appointed Supremes) that will likely favor him in any disputed election case.
Or the vote tally shows that Trump didn't prevail in pivotal states, but in state legislatures with Republican majorities, local GOP leaders appoint electors from their party anyway, defying the popular will without violating Article II, Section I, of the Constitution, which doesn't flat-out prohibit such a stratagem. That was one possibility Barton Gellman explored in his bombshell Atlantic piece on the gambits Trump could use to snatch victory (of a sort) from the jaws of a Biden victory. Then there are the sundry wag-the-dog plots, including a desperate Trump trying to generate a pre-election rally-around-the-flag effect by starting a war with Iran -- precisely what, in 2011, he predicted Barack Obama would do to boost his chances for reelection.
And that, of course, is just part of a long list of nightmarish possibilities. Whatever your most dreaded outcome, dwelling on it doesn't make for happiness or even ephemeral relief. Ultimately, it's not under your control. Besides, no one knows what will happen, and some prominent pundits have dismissed such apocalyptic soothsaying with assurances that the system will work the way it's supposed to and foil Trumpian malfeasance. Here's hoping.
In the meantime, let's summon what passes for optimism these days. Imagine that none of the alarmist denouements materializes. Biden wins the popular vote tally and the Electoral College. The GOP's leaders discover that they do, in fact, have backbones (or at least the instinct for political survival), refusing to echo Trump's rants about rigging. The president rages but then does go, unquietly, into the night.
Most of my friends on the left assume that a new dawn would then emerge. In some respects, it indeed will. Biden won't be a serial liar. That's no small matter. By the middle of this year, Trump had made false or misleading pronouncements of one sort or another more than 20,000 times since becoming president. Nor will we have a president who winks and nods at far-right groups or racist "militias," nor one who blasts a governor -- instead of expressing shock and solidarity -- soon after the FBI foils a plot by right-wing extremists to kidnap her for taking steps to suppress the coronavirus. We won't have a president who repeatedly intimates that he will remain in office even if he loses the election. We won't have a president who can't bring himself to appeal to Americans to display their patriotism through the simple act of donning masks to protect others (and themselves) from Covid-19. And we won't have a president who lacks the compassion to express sorrow over the 225,000 Americans (and rising) who have been killed by that disease, or enough respect for science and professional expertise, to say nothing of humility, to refrain from declaring, as his own experts squirm, that warm weather will cause the virus to vanish miraculously or that injections of disinfectant will destroy it.
And these, of course, won't be minor victories. Still, Joe Biden's arrival in the Oval Office won't alter one mega-fact: Donald Trump will hand him a monstrous economic mess. Worse, in the almost three months between November 3rd and January 20th, rest assured that he will dedicate himself to making it even bigger.
The motivation? Sheer spite for having been put in the position -- we know that he will never accept any responsibility for his defeat -- of facing what, for him, may be more unbearable than death itself: losing. The gargantuan challenge of putting the economy back on the rails while also battling the pandemic would be hard enough for any new president without the lame-duck commander-in-chief and Senate Republicans sabotaging his efforts before he even begins. The long stretch between Election Day and Inauguration Day will provide Donald Trump ample time to take his revenge on a people who will have forsaken, in his opinion, the best president ever.
More on Trump's vengeance, but first, let's take stock of what awaits Biden should he win in November.
Our Covid-Ravaged Economy
To say that we are, in some respects, experiencing the biggest economic disaster since the Great Depression of the 1930s is anything but hyperbole. The statistics make that clear. The economy had contracted at a staggering annual rate of 31.4% during the second quarter of this pandemic year. During the 2007-2009 Great Recession, unemployment, at its height, was 10%. This year's high point, in April, was 14.7%. Over the spring, 40 million jobs disappeared, eviscerating all gains made during the two pre-pandemic years.
There were, however, some relatively recent signs of a rebound. The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank's survey of economic forecasters, released in mid-August, yielded an estimate of a 19.1% expansion for the third quarter of 2020. But that optimism came in the wake of Congress passing the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act, on March 27th, which pumped about $2.2 trillion into the economy. The slowdown in job growth between July and September suggests that its salutary effects may be petering out. Even with that uptick, the economy remains in far worse shape than before the virus started romping through the landscape.
However, while useful, aggregate figures obscure stark variations in how the pain produced by a Covid-19 economy has been felt across different parts of American society. No, we aren't all in this together, if by "together" you mean anything remotely resembling equalized distress. A Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) release, for instance, reveals that September's 7.9% nationwide unemployment rate hit some groups far harder than others.
The jobless rate for whites dropped to 7%, but for Hispanics it was 10.3%, for African Americans 12.1%. Furthermore, high-skill, high-wage workers have gotten off far more lightly than those whose jobs can't be done from home, including restaurant servers and cooks, construction workers, meatpackers, housecleaners, agricultural laborers, subway, bus, and taxi drivers, first responders, and retail and hotel staff, among others. For workers like them, essential public health precautions, whether "social distancing" or stay-at-home decrees, haven't just been an inconvenience. They have proven economically devastating. These are the Americans who are struggling hardest to buy food and pay the rent.
More than 25 million of them fall in the lowest 20% of the earnings scale and -- no surprise here -- have, at best, the most meager savings. According to the Fed's calculations, of the bottom 25% of Americans, only 11% have what they require for at least six months of basic expenses and less than 17% for at least three. Yes, unemployment insurance helps, but depending on the state, it covers just 30% to 50% of lost wages. Moreover, there's no telling when, or whether, such workers will be rehired or find new jobs that pay at least as much. The data on long-term unemployment isn't encouraging. The BLS reports that, in September, 2.4 million workers had been unemployed for 27 weeks or more, another 4.9 million for 15 to 27 weeks.
These disparities and the steps the Fed has taken, including keeping interest rates low and buying treasury bills, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds, help explain why high stock prices and massive economic suffering have coexisted, however incongruously, during the pandemic. The problem with bull markets, however, is that they don't bring direct gains to the chunk of American society that's been hurt the most.
Nearly half of American households own no stock at all, according to the Federal Reserve Bank, even if you count pension and 401k plans or Individual Retirement Accounts -- and for black and Hispanic families the numbers are 69% and 72%, respectively. Furthermore, the wealthiest 10% of households own 84% of all stock.
Trump preens when the stock market soars, as he did on April 10th, when 16 million Americans had just filed for unemployment. Tweets trumpeting "the biggest Stock Market increase since 1974" were cold comfort for Americans who could no longer count on paychecks.
The Signs of Suffering
Even such numbers don't fully reveal the ways in which prolonged joblessness has upended lives. To get a glimpse of that, consider how low-income workers, contending with extended unemployment, have struggled to pay for two basic necessities: housing and food.
Reuters reported in late July that Americans already owed $21.5 billion in back rent. Worse yet, 17.3 million of the country's 44 million renter households couldn't afford to pay the landlord and faced possible eviction. A fifth of all renters had made only partial payments that month or hadn't paid anything. Again, not surprisingly, some were in more trouble than others. In September, 12% of whites owed back rent compared to 25% of African Americans, 24% of Asians, and 22% of Latinos. A May Census Bureau survey revealed that nearly 45% of African Americans and Hispanics but "only" 20% of whites had little or no confidence in their ability to make their June rent payments. (Households with kids were in an even bigger bind.)
The rent crunch also varied depending on a worker's education, a reliable predictor of earnings. Workers with high school diplomas earned only 60% as much as workers who had graduated from college and only 50% of those with a master's degree. And the more education workers had, the less likely they were to be laid off. Between February and August, 2.5% of employees with college degrees lost their jobs compared to nearly 11% of those who hadn't attended college.
Those, then, are the Americans most likely to be at risk of eviction. Yes, the federal government, states, and cities have issued rent moratoriums, but the protections in them varied considerably and, by August, they had ended in 24 of the 43 states that enacted them; nor did they release renters from future obligations to pay what they owe, sometimes with penalties. In addition, eviction stays haven't stopped landlords nationwide from taking thousands of delinquent renters to court and even, depending on state laws, seeking to evict them. The courts are clogged with such cases. Eventually, millions of renters could face what a BBC report called a potential "avalanche" of evictions.
Nor have homeowners been safe. The CARES Act did include provisions to protect some of them, offering those with federal-backed mortgages the possibility of six-month payment deferrals, potential six-month extensions of that, and the possibility of negotiating affordable payment plans thereafter. In many cases, however, that "forbearance" initiative hasn't worked as intended. Often, homeowners didn't know about it or weren't aware that they had to file a formal request with their lenders to qualify or got the run around when they tried to do so. Still, mortgage forbearance helped millions, but it expires in March 2021 when many homeowners could still be jobless or have new jobs that don't pay as well. Just how desperate such people will be depends, of course, on how strongly Covid-19 resurges, what future shutdowns it produces, and when it will truly subside.
Meanwhile, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association, the residential mortgage delinquency rate hit 8.22% as the second quarter of 2020 ended, the highest since 2014. Meanwhile, between June and July, mortgage payments overdue 90 or more days increased by 20% to a total unseen since 2010. True, we're not yet headed for defaults and foreclosures on the scale of the Great Recession of 2007-2008, but that's a very high bar.
As for hunger, a September Census Bureau survey reports that 10.5% of adults, or 23 million people, stated that household members weren't getting enough to eat. That's a sharp increase from the 3.7% in a Department of Agriculture survey for 2019. In July, the Wall Street Journalreported, 12% of adults said their families didn't have enough food (compared to 10% in May). A fifth of them lacked the money to feed their kids adequately, a three-percent increase from May. Recent food-insecurity estimates for households with children range from 27.5% to 29.5%.
Meanwhile, enrollments in the Supplemental Nutritional Assistance Program (known until 2008 as the Food Stamp Program) grew by 17% between February and May, forcing the government to increase its funding. Food banks, overwhelmed by demand, are pleading for money and volunteers. In August, a mile-long line of cars formed outside a food bank in Dallas, one of many such poignant scenes in cities across the country since the pandemic struck.
What Happens After the Election?
For those who have lost their jobs, the CARES Act provided $600 a week to supplement unemployment benefits, as well as a one-time payment of $1,250 per adult and $2,400 for married couples. That stipend, though, ended on July 31st when the Republican Senate balked at renewing it. In August, by executive order, the president directed the Federal Emergency Management Agency to step in with three weeks of $300 payments, which were extended for another three. That, however, was half what they would have received had the CARES supplement been extended and, by October, most states had used up the Trump allotments.
In the ongoing congressional negotiations over prolonging supplemental benefits and other assistance, President Trump engaged, only to disengage. With a September ABC News/IPSOS voter survey showing that just 35% of the public approved of his handling of the pandemic, and Joe Biden having opened a double-digit lead in many polls, the president suddenly offered a $1.8 trillion version of the CARES Act, only to encounter massive blowback from his own party.
And that's where we are as the election looms. If Trump loses (and accepts the loss), he will hand Joe Biden an economic disaster of the first order that he's made infinitely worse by belittling mask-wearing and social distancing, disregarding and undercutting his administration's own medical experts, peddling absurd nostrums, and offering rosy but baseless prognostications. And between November 3rd, Election Day, and January 20th, Inauguration Day, expect -- hard as it might be to imagine -- an angrier, more vengeful Trump.
For now, as his prospects for victory seem to dim, he has good reason to push for, or at least be seen as favoring, additional aid, but here's a guarantee: if he loses in November, he won't just moan about election rigging, he'll also lose all interest in providing more help to millions of Americans at the edge of penury and despair. Vindictiveness, not sympathy, will be his response, even to his base, for whom he clearly has a barely secret disdain. So accept this guarantee, as well: between those two dates, whatever he does will be meant to undermine the incoming Biden administration. That includes working to make the climb as steep as possible for the rival he's depicted as a semi-senile incompetent. He will want only one thing: to see his successor fail.
Once Trump formally hands over the presidency -- assuming his every maneuver to retain power flops -- he'll work to portray any measure the new administration adopts to corral the virus he helped let loose and to aid those in need as profligacy, and as "socialism" and governmental overreach imperiling freedom. Last guarantee: he won't waste a minute getting his wrecking operation underway, while "his" party will posture as the paragon of financial rectitude. It won't matter that Republican administrations have racked up the biggest budget deficits in our history. They, too, will ferociously resist Biden's efforts to help millions of struggling Americans.
And think of all of this, assuming Biden wins, as the "good news."
Rajan Menon, a TomDispatch regular, is the Anne and Bernard Spitzer Professor of International Relations at the Powell School, City College of New York, senior research fellow at Columbia University's Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies, and a non-resident fellow at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft. His latest book is The Conceit of Humanitarian Intervention.
Follow TomDispatch on Twitter and join us on Facebook. Check out the newest Dispatch Books, John Feffer's new dystopian novel (the second in the Splinterlands series) Frostlands, Beverly Gologorsky's novel Every Body Has a Story, and Tom Engelhardt's A Nation Unmade by War, as well as Alfred McCoy's In the Shadows of the American Century: The Rise and Decline of U.S. Global Power and John Dower's The Violent American Century: War and Terror Since World War II.
Copyright 2020 Rajan Menon


alternet--2020-10-27--Why Trump's trade war backfired

Why Trump's trade war backfired

The 2016 election was a referendum on free trade , which many blamed for destroying millions of American manufacturing jobs .
In 2020 , it could be about the merits of trade wars .
During President Donald Trump 's first term , he tore up deals , launched a trade war with China and renegotiated NAFTA .
His campaign claims the war was a success and that his policies were bringing back manufacturing jobs – until the pandemic arrived – and so voters should give him another four years .
“ You lost that trade war , '' Sen. Kamala @ @ @ @ @ @ @ President Mike Pence , citing the loss of 300,000 manufacturing jobs during Trump 's presidency and bankrupt farmers .
As an economist who researches international economic policy , I believe Trump 's impulse to rethink trade policy was understandable .
If free trade hurt American workers , it stands to reason that putting up barriers to trade – even being willing to “ go to war '' – might protect those workers .
But wars can backfire – and trade wars are no different .
Economic theory tells us that free trade means @ @ @ @ @ @ @ everything will be produced where it can be made least expensively .
That sounds like a great deal for consumers and exporting industries like agriculture that find more buyers for their products .
But it 's a raw deal for manufacturing workers as factories move to countries like Mexico and China with lower labor costs .
That 's what happened after the North American Free Trade Agreement became law in 1994 and China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001 .
In each case , manufacturing workers were among the big losers as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ under 18 million in 1990 to a little over 14 million in 2004 .
As a result , many politicians became more cautious about supporting free trade deals .
When he was a senator in 1993 , former Vice President Joe Biden and many other Democrats voted to ratify NAFTA .
A little over two decades later , when a free trade bill with Central America and the Dominican Republic came up for a vote , Biden and nearly every Democrat voted no .
The bill barely passed .
And although Biden 's @ @ @ @ @ @ @ – which would have created the world 's largest free-trade zone – opposition among leading Democrats as well as Trump imperiled its passage in the Senate , leading to the U.S. 's withdrawal in 2017 .
When Trump launched his presidential campaign in 2016 , opposition to trade deals like NAFTA was one of his signature issues .
At a time when Republican leaders mostly were staunch supporters of free trade , his promise to bring manufacturing jobs back to the U.S. helped him win the primary – and ultimately the presidency – @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to see trade as bad for Americans .
And as president , he followed through on his pledge and unilaterally imposed tariffs on a range of Chinese products – a list that now totals US $ 550 billion worth – as well as on most aluminum and steel imports .
Thus , Trump 's trade wars began .
My research with colleagues at Boston University shows that trade agreements have indeed hurt U.S. workers .
But Trump 's trade wars have not solved the offshoring problem that they were designed to fix .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ good and easy to win . ''
Trump seems to have based this on the assumption that America 's trading partners would not retaliate .
He was wrong .
Over many rounds of tit-for-tat , China has retaliated repeatedly by placing tariffs on $ 185 billion of U.S. exports , most notably agricultural products .
After U.S. soybean farmers saw their largest market dry up , the Trump administration was forced to spend $ 23 billion to offset some of their losses .
All told , more than one-third of farm income will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ And when the Trump administration planned to impose steel tariffs on Canada earlier this year , America 's northern neighbor vowed retaliation , which would have hurt U.S. exporters .
So Trump backed down .
That 's the problem with trade wars .
Intended to protect a country 's own workers , they wind up doing a lot of self-inflicted damage , as retaliatory tariffs drive up the cost of exports , hurting businesses and workers at home as well as abroad .
At the same time , U.S. policy seems to have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the offshoring of American jobs , which has continued to grow .
The 2017 tax cut , for example , actually made offshoring more profitable and attractive – making it even harder to achieve the primary goal of the trade war .
Trade wars pay off only if they have a clear vision and lead to meaningful changes in how everyone does business .
That has n't happened either .
While Trump did reach a “ phase one '' deal with China in January , it actually looks like it will make the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the truce , the U.S. agreed to reduce its tariffs on Chinese goods and China said it would buy a lot more American products , especially soybeans .
While it may make up for some of the damage caused by the trade war – such as by aiding ailing soybean farmers – it will make offshoring easier by making it more advantageous and profitable for American companies to transfer operations to China .
That 's because China also agreed to stop requiring foreign companies that seek to do business within its borders @ @ @ @ @ @ @ A better way to protect workers One notable exception to all this is the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement , Trump 's replacement for NAFTA that became law in July .
That deal is likely to prevent more offshoring to Mexico because of bipartisan support for labor and environmental provisions that raise minimum Mexican automaker wages .
[ Deep knowledge , daily .
Sign up for The Conversation 's newsletter . ]
This points to one of the best ways to actually stop manufacturing offshoring : Negotiate trade agreements that set higher labor and environmental standards @ @ @ @ @ @ @ helps workers and communities in other countries get better treatment , but also makes U.S. workers more competitive by raising the cost of doing business there .
That makes American companies less likely to move operations overseas .
The evidence suggests the best way to limit offshoring is through negotiation and cooperation , not war .
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license .
Read the original article .

by Rebecca Ray, Boston University
The 2016 election was a referendum on free trade, which many blamed for destroying millions of American manufacturing jobs. In 2020, it could be about the merits of trade wars.
During President Donald Trump's first term, he tore up deals, launched a trade war with China and renegotiated NAFTA. His campaign claims the war was a success and that his policies were bringing back manufacturing jobs – until the pandemic arrived – and so voters should give him another four years.
His Democratic rivals disagree.
“You lost that trade war," Sen. Kamala Harris snapped during her debate with Vice President Mike Pence, citing the loss of 300,000 manufacturing jobs during Trump's presidency and bankrupt farmers.
So who's right?
As an economist who researches international economic policy, I believe Trump's impulse to rethink trade policy was understandable. If free trade hurt American workers, it stands to reason that putting up barriers to trade – even being willing to “go to war" – might protect those workers.
But wars can backfire – and trade wars are no different.
Free trade's losers
Economic theory tells us that free trade means a greater availability of cheaper goods because everything will be produced where it can be made least expensively.
That sounds like a great deal for consumers and exporting industries like agriculture that find more buyers for their products. But it's a raw deal for manufacturing workers as factories move to countries like Mexico and China with lower labor costs.
That's what happened after the North American Free Trade Agreement became law in 1994 and China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001.
In each case, manufacturing workers were among the big losers as employment in the sector plunged from just under 18 million in 1990 to a little over 14 million in 2004.
The tide turns against trade
As a result, many politicians became more cautious about supporting free trade deals.
When he was a senator in 1993, former Vice President Joe Biden and many other Democrats voted to ratify NAFTA. A little over two decades later, when a free trade bill with Central America and the Dominican Republic came up for a vote, Biden and nearly every Democrat voted no. The bill barely passed.
And although Biden's administration signed the Trans-Pacific Partnership in 2016 – which would have created the world's largest free-trade zone – opposition among leading Democrats as well as Trump imperiled its passage in the Senate, leading to the U.S.'s withdrawal in 2017.
When Trump launched his presidential campaign in 2016, opposition to trade deals like NAFTA was one of his signature issues. At a time when Republican leaders mostly were staunch supporters of free trade, his promise to bring manufacturing jobs back to the U.S. helped him win the primary – and ultimately the presidency – as a growing number of voters began to see trade as bad for Americans.
And as president, he followed through on his pledge and unilaterally imposed tariffs on a range of Chinese products – a list that now totals US$550 billion worth – as well as on most aluminum and steel imports. Thus, Trump's trade wars began.
My research with colleagues at Boston University shows that trade agreements have indeed hurt U.S. workers. But Trump's trade wars have not solved the offshoring problem that they were designed to fix.
The trouble with trade wars
Trump has claimed “trade wars are good and easy to win."
Trump seems to have based this on the assumption that America's trading partners would not retaliate. He was wrong.
Over many rounds of tit-for-tat, China has retaliated repeatedly by placing tariffs on $185 billion of U.S. exports, most notably agricultural products. After U.S. soybean farmers saw their largest market dry up, the Trump administration was forced to spend $23 billion to offset some of their losses. All told, more than one-third of farm income will come from government subsidies in 2020.
And when the Trump administration planned to impose steel tariffs on Canada earlier this year, America's northern neighbor vowed retaliation, which would have hurt U.S. exporters. So Trump backed down.
That's the problem with trade wars. Intended to protect a country's own workers, they wind up doing a lot of self-inflicted damage, as retaliatory tariffs drive up the cost of exports, hurting businesses and workers at home as well as abroad.
At the same time, U.S. policy seems to have lost sight of the original enemy: the offshoring of American jobs, which has continued to grow. The 2017 tax cut, for example, actually made offshoring more profitable and attractive – making it even harder to achieve the primary goal of the trade war.
Trade wars pay off only if they have a clear vision and lead to meaningful changes in how everyone does business. That hasn't happened either.
While Trump did reach a “phase one" deal with China in January, it actually looks like it will make the offshoring problem even worse. As part of the truce, the U.S. agreed to reduce its tariffs on Chinese goods and China said it would buy a lot more American products, especially soybeans.
While it may make up for some of the damage caused by the trade war – such as by aiding ailing soybean farmers – it will make offshoring easier by making it more advantageous and profitable for American companies to transfer operations to China. That's because China also agreed to stop requiring foreign companies that seek to do business within its borders to transfer technology to domestic partners.
A better way to protect workers
One notable exception to all this is the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, Trump's replacement for NAFTA that became law in July.
That deal is likely to prevent more offshoring to Mexico because of bipartisan support for labor and environmental provisions that raise minimum Mexican automaker wages.
[Deep knowledge, daily.Sign up for The Conversation's newsletter.]
This points to one of the best ways to actually stop manufacturing offshoring: Negotiate trade agreements that set higher labor and environmental standards for all signatories. This not only helps workers and communities in other countries get better treatment, but also makes U.S. workers more competitive by raising the cost of doing business there. That makes American companies less likely to move operations overseas.
The evidence suggests the best way to limit offshoring is through negotiation and cooperation, not war.
Rebecca Ray, Senior Academic Researcher, Boston University
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.


alternet--2020-10-28--The war Trump started at home

The war Trump started at home

It was July 2017 , a few weeks before the `` Unite the Right '' Charlottesville riots , when white men marched through the streets of that Virginia city protesting the planned takedown of a confederate statue and chanting , `` Jews will not replace us . ''
I was sitting at a coffee shop in my quiet town of Poulsbo in Washington State .
I had set aside an hour away from my kids to do some necessary writing , while my husband , then second-in-command on a Navy ballistic missile submarine , sat suspended somewhere in the depths @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and infant were home with a babysitter , offering me a rare chance to write , peacefully , amid the stressors of my life .
I had a clinical social-work internship then , counseling war-traumatized veterans , and had spent months single-mothering while my spouse was at sea .
To my surprise , I was suddenly jolted from my daydreams by chanting men .
Glancing out the window at the usually placid waterfront of our town , I caught sight of a group of surprisingly large white men wearing animal skin loincloths , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ were also holding torches and -- I kid you not -- spears .
They were loudly chanting , `` Poulsbo !
Poulsbo !
Poulsbo ! ''
And that was when I suddenly remembered that this was our annual Viking Fest in which groups of Washington residents from near and far celebrated the town 's Norwegian founders .
Cars parked more than a mile down our modest streets suggested that such gatherings were anything but local .
This would be my second Viking Fest and I would be struck once again by how little @ @ @ @ @ @ @ actually founded , the values it stood for , and which of them might have survived to today .
Poulsbo , after all , now existed in a largely militarized area , including a local submarine base , with white , privileged officer families -- those fortunate enough , at least , to be dual-income ones like mine or have trust funds -- purchasing and reselling homes every few years as the U.S. military moved them around the country and the world .
Even in 2017 , longtime residents were starting to move @ @ @ @ @ @ @ into the community earlier each year from ever-fiercer wildfires in ever-longer fire seasons , part of our new climate-changed reality .
Meanwhile , Poulsbo 's picturesque gingerbread house-style buildings were being replaced by larger condo complexes , as developers moved ever deeper into the town 's hillside forests that would undoubtedly someday burn .
Viking Fest , with its spectacle of white men banging spears and shouting aggressively , set my heart racing with an unnamed fear .
It was , after all , a moment when the recently elected Donald Trump was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ including in Charlottesville soon ( `` You had some very bad people in that group , but you also had people that were very fine people , on both sides '' ) , should be considered beyond bounds .
Later , talking with another military wife , a rare woman of color visiting that town , about the Viking shout-a-thon , amid an almost all-white crowd of officers and their families watching the event , she said , `` It 's like there 's no point .
It 's like a celebration of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and What Do They Stand For ?
Looking back now , it 's hard not to see that evening 's loud and prideful display of white masculinity , which merely disturbed the peace for stressed-out moms like me , as a harbinger of more sinister things to come .
Shouting male nationalist groups like the Proud Boys that President Trump told to `` stand by '' at his first debate with Joe Biden and the Wolverine Watchmen , some of whom have allegedly been linked to a plot to kidnap Michigan Governor Gretchen @ @ @ @ @ @ @ news .
As a military wife who has made five different moves over the last 10 years , I 'm particularly aware of how racially and ethnically diverse this country and its military actually are .
Under the circumstances , it 's remarkable that much of white America lacks any understanding of just how threatening displays like Viking Fest must look to the rare person of color who happens upon them .
It should certainly be obvious in October 2020 how destructive to our democracy fraternal , pro-Trump groups have become during Donald @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Boys .
Among the founding principles their website offers are a vague set of notions that include `` reinstating a spirit of Western chauvinism , '' `` anti-political correctness , '' `` venerating the housewife , '' `` pro-gun rights '' ( in a pandemic-ridden country where , between March and July alone , an estimated three million more guns were purchased than usual ) , and -- get this -- `` anti-racism . ''
For the Proud Boys to say that they reject racism and venerate housewives did little more than provide @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , even as they planned armed counter-rallies in progressive cities like Providence and Portland with the explicit purpose of inciting violence among Black Lives Matter protesters and their allies .
Other influences , like the neo-Nazi website The Daily Stormer , are even more direct .
For example , that site urged its followers to cyber-bully American University 's first black female student government president , Taylor Dumpson after nooses began appearing on that school 's campus in 2017 .
In April 2016 , its founder Andrew Anglin had written , `` Jews @ @ @ @ @ @ @ leaving America if Trump gets elected -- and he 's happy about it .
This alone is enough reason to put your entire heart and soul into supporting this man . ''
One thing is certain : all that matters as markers of humanity to the man who inspires and , however implicitly , endorses such groups , President Donald Trump , is white skin and political support .
The other night at his town hall with NBC 's Savannah Guthrie , a would-be supporter presented herself as the granddaughter of immigrants who @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
She asked the president about his plans to protect DACA recipients from having to return to their countries .
The president responded : `` DACA is somewhat different from Dreamers .
You understand that ... Where do you come from , by the way , originally ?
Where ? ''
After the woman responded that her grandparents came from Russia and Poland , he stated , `` That 's very good . ''
He then went on to discuss his border wall with Mexico ; that is , keeping the wrong kind @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a Recruiting Ground for the Far Right If there is any concept that these groups threatening to disrupt our democracy stand for , it 's a version of individual freedom -- like not wearing masks -- that 's akin to driving drunk and without putting on a seat belt , rather than waiting for a sober friend to drive you home .
Yes , it 's more comfortable not to wear a mask or a seatbelt .
The short-term benefits , like physical comfort , are tangible , as is perhaps the exhilarating @ @ @ @ @ @ @ want with your body .
( Ask most anti-maskers about abortion rights , however , and you 'll get quite a different perspective on the degree to which our bodies should be our own . )
Yet the most current scientific evidence is that if all Americans wore masks ( and social-distanced ) right now , it would potentially save tens of thousands of lives .
In the age of Covid-19 , however , concerns over public health restrictions to prevent the spread of the virus , including lockdowns of gyms , bars @ @ @ @ @ @ @ become political firestorms .
Such mandated lockdowns were the main reason various gunmen collaborated with the Wolverine Watchmen in a plot -- fortunately foiled -- to kidnap the governor of Michigan and considered a similar plot against Governor Ralph Northam of Virginia .
Perhaps not coincidentally , people of color -- Blacks and Latinos -- die from Covid-19 at a rate about a third higher than their share of the population .
In other words , it could n't be clearer whose bodily freedoms are really considered at stake in these far-right struggles @ @ @ @ @ @ @ most disturbing aspect of these groups is that they take a significant part of their manpower and know-how from the United States military with the tacit support of a Republican Senate .
As a military spouse as well as the co-founder of Brown University 's Costs of War Project , it 's been no secret to me that our military 's support for bigotry of all kinds is endemic .
Racist and sexist remarks are commonplace both on the boats where my husband has served and in gatherings with officer colleagues and their @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ( if that ) are handed out in return .
In a country where gun ownership and firearms training are seen by the far right as inalienable , all-American freedoms , the military is a ripe breeding ground for disaffected men looking for individual empowerment , a sense of belonging , and just such training .
In fact , a recent New York Times investigation claims that veterans and active-duty military members make up more than a fifth of the membership of America 's 300 anti-government , pro-Trump `` militia '' groups .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ Military Times , about a quarter of active-duty service members reported witnessing signs of white nationalist ideology among their fellow soldiers , including racist and anti-Semitic slurs and homemade explosives shaped like swastikas .
Nothing is more disturbing , when it comes to white nationalist-style hate , than the way the Republicans in Congress have implicitly sanctioned it .
In 2019 , after the Democratic-controlled House introduced a clause into the Defense Authorization Act to have recruits screened for white nationalist ideology , the Republican Senate nixed the provision .
What more need @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that should be about service to the nation become a petri dish for people who stand for nothing of collective significance ?
Even one of the favorite and abiding principles of far-right actors ( and many Republicans in Congress ) , the right to bear arms , seems eerily decontextualized from history in a country that leads the world by far in armed citizens ( many with distinctly military-style weaponry ) .
Let 's remember that this right was grounded in the idea of organizing the revolutionary army against a colonial power that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ billeted its military in their homes .
The colonists , while rife with their own history of human-rights violations , were not a bunch of disaffected , irrationally angry individual crusaders with an urge to use weapons to threaten civilians .
Two and a half centuries later , the party that regularly signals its support for the far right 's armed tactics still controls the presidency , the upper chamber of Congress , and will soon control the Supreme Court as well .
And yet it and its right-wing supporters eternally act as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ world and , from that position of victimization , are now threatening others ( and not just Gretchen Whitmer either . )
Many among them still see themselves as subjugated by this country 's ruling elite , which may represent a kind of projection or , psychologically speaking , seeing in others the thoughts and feelings one actually harbors in oneself .
And as a therapist who has worked with significant numbers of veterans and military service members , I can warn them : do n't do it .
As I know from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ me of their time in distant lands , when they used guns against civilians , it shook to the core their belief in the principle of service to country , leaving them distrustful of the homeland they had been fighting for .
Of course , an increasingly armed far right has responded by creating a world of symbols that are deeply comforting to them .
Yet do they really stand for anything ?
I was recently appalled by a bumper sticker on a minivan featuring two large guns and three smaller ones aligned @ @ @ @ @ @ @ nuclear families .
Its tagline : `` My guns are my family . ''
At the wheel was a young woman with several children .
I balk similarly at pictures on people 's lawns that feature Donald Trump 's `` Make America Great Again '' flag -- how did he get a separate flag ?
-- and the word `` Jesus '' in all-capital letters .
Guns and small children ?
A separate Trump state and Jesus ?
Never before has sociologist Émile Durkheim 's idea that religious groups are less in need @ @ @ @ @ @ @ which they can all bow down in unison made more sense to me .
Amid such incoherence ( and symbolic violence ) , such an inability to justify their place in this democracy , it might be fairest to say that , as this election campaign heads toward its chaotic climax , Trump and the far right worship little more than one another .
`` At Least He Has n't Started Another War '' In October , the United States passed its 19-year mark in its second Afghan War of the last four @ @ @ @ @ @ @ war and the dregs of the conflict in Iraq , which the U.S. invaded in the spring of 2003 , have become as empty as the war that far-right groups wage in the United States .
The hundreds of thousands of dead civilians , the flourishing of terrorist groups far deadlier and angrier than those the U.S. originally sought to defeat , the degradation of basic human rights including the rights to life and health -- the carnage has been significant indeed .
As these wars enter or near their third decade , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Trump , `` At least he has n't started another war . ''
Oh , but he has !
This time , though , the war is at home .
Even the Wolverine Watchmen and their co-collaborators in recent kidnapping plots saw themselves as initiating a civil war , or a boogaloo ( to use far-right terminology ) .
Not since the Jim Crow South years have we had to worry about people 's physical safety as they approach the polls to cast their vote -- and the `` Four More Years '' @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , I fear , just gotten started .
Never would it have been thinkable for a sitting president to overlook , or even implicitly endorse , plots to kidnap and possibly kill elected officials , but Trump has even gone so far as to respond to his supporters at a recent rally in Michigan chanting `` Lock her up ! ''
by saying `` Lock them all up ! ''
( a play both on his Hillary Clinton chants in the last election and on Governor Whitmer 's pandemic lockdown orders ) .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ ( never sufficient ) are further depleted .
A pandemic is again spiking across the country .
Those who run for office and try to govern with dignity are being challenged in all too threatening ways .
Think of it , whether in political or health terms , as our new war zone .
I hope that those who appear to vote in person under pandemic conditions and increasing threats of voter intimidation will not come under attack next by far-right groups .
To anyone who is listening in elected office anywhere in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ plan for a peaceful transition of power , since the `` law-and-order '' president is , of course , anything but that when it comes to sustaining our democracy , rather than his presidency .
Andrea Mazzarino , a TomDispatch regular , co-founded Brown University 's Costs of War Project .
She has held various clinical , research , and advocacy positions , including at a Veterans Affairs PTSD Outpatient Clinic , with Human Rights Watch , and at a community mental health agency .
She is the co-editor of War and Health @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in Iraq and Afghanistan .
Follow TomDispatch on Twitter and join us on Facebook .
Check out the newest Dispatch Books , John Feffer 's new dystopian novel ( the second in the Splinterlands series ) Frostlands , Beverly Gologorsky 's novel Every Body Has a Story , and Tom Engelhardt 's A Nation Unmade by War , as well as Alfred McCoy 's In the Shadows of the American Century : The Rise and Decline of U.S .
Global Power and John Dower 's The Violent American Century : War and Terror @ @ @ @ @

It was July 2017, a few weeks before the "Unite the Right" Charlottesville riots, when white men marched through the streets of that Virginia city protesting the planned takedown of a confederate statue and chanting, "Jews will not replace us." I was sitting at a coffee shop in my quiet town of Poulsbo in Washington State. I had set aside an hour away from my kids to do some necessary writing, while my husband, then second-in-command on a Navy ballistic missile submarine, sat suspended somewhere in the depths of the Pacific Ocean.
Our toddler and infant were home with a babysitter, offering me a rare chance to write, peacefully, amid the stressors of my life. I had a clinical social-work internship then, counseling war-traumatized veterans, and had spent months single-mothering while my spouse was at sea. To my surprise, I was suddenly jolted from my daydreams by chanting men. Glancing out the window at the usually placid waterfront of our town, I caught sight of a group of surprisingly large white men wearing animal skin loincloths, vests, and horned hats. They were also holding torches and -- I kid you not -- spears. They were loudly chanting, "Poulsbo! Poulsbo! Poulsbo!" And that was when I suddenly remembered that this was our annual Viking Fest in which groups of Washington residents from near and far celebrated the town's Norwegian founders.
Cars parked more than a mile down our modest streets suggested that such gatherings were anything but local. This would be my second Viking Fest and I would be struck once again by how little I learned about how the town was actually founded, the values it stood for, and which of them might have survived to today. Poulsbo, after all, now existed in a largely militarized area, including a local submarine base, with white, privileged officer families -- those fortunate enough, at least, to be dual-income ones like mine or have trust funds -- purchasing and reselling homes every few years as the U.S. military moved them around the country and the world.
Even in 2017, longtime residents were starting to move away to escape the smoke that snaked into the community earlier each year from ever-fiercer wildfires in ever-longer fire seasons, part of our new climate-changed reality. Meanwhile, Poulsbo's picturesque gingerbread house-style buildings were being replaced by larger condo complexes, as developers moved ever deeper into the town's hillside forests that would undoubtedly someday burn.
Viking Fest, with its spectacle of white men banging spears and shouting aggressively, set my heart racing with an unnamed fear. It was, after all, a moment when the recently elected Donald Trump was already demonstrating that practically no behavior, including in Charlottesville soon ("You had some very bad people in that group, but you also had people that were very fine people, on both sides"), should be considered beyond bounds. Later, talking with another military wife, a rare woman of color visiting that town, about the Viking shout-a-thon, amid an almost all-white crowd of officers and their families watching the event, she said, "It's like there's no point. It's like a celebration of white people!"
Who Are They and What Do They Stand For?
Looking back now, it's hard not to see that evening's loud and prideful display of white masculinity, which merely disturbed the peace for stressed-out moms like me, as a harbinger of more sinister things to come. Shouting male nationalist groups like the Proud Boys that President Trump told to "stand by" at his first debate with Joe Biden and the Wolverine Watchmen, some of whom have allegedly been linked to a plot to kidnap Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, are increasingly commonplace in the news.
As a military wife who has made five different moves over the last 10 years, I'm particularly aware of how racially and ethnically diverse this country and its military actually are. Under the circumstances, it's remarkable that much of white America lacks any understanding of just how threatening displays like Viking Fest must look to the rare person of color who happens upon them.
It should certainly be obvious in October 2020 how destructive to our democracy fraternal, pro-Trump groups have become during Donald Trump's presidency. Take those Proud Boys. Among the founding principles their website offers are a vague set of notions that include "reinstating a spirit of Western chauvinism," "anti-political correctness," "venerating the housewife," "pro-gun rights" (in a pandemic-ridden country where, between March and July alone, an estimated three million more guns were purchased than usual), and -- get this -- "anti-racism." For the Proud Boys to say that they reject racism and venerate housewives did little more than provide them with a veneer of social acceptability, even as they planned armed counter-rallies in progressive cities like Providence and Portland with the explicit purpose of inciting violence among Black Lives Matter protesters and their allies.
Other influences, like the neo-Nazi website The Daily Stormer, are even more direct. For example, that site urged its followers to cyber-bully American University's first black female student government president, Taylor Dumpson after nooses began appearing on that school's campus in 2017. In April 2016, its founder Andrew Anglin had written, "Jews, Blacks, and lesbians will be leaving America if Trump gets elected -- and he's happy about it. This alone is enough reason to put your entire heart and soul into supporting this man."
One thing is certain: all that matters as markers of humanity to the man who inspires and, however implicitly, endorses such groups, President Donald Trump, is white skin and political support. The other night at his town hall with NBC's Savannah Guthrie, a would-be supporter presented herself as the granddaughter of immigrants who had fled religious persecution in Eastern Europe. She asked the president about his plans to protect DACA recipients from having to return to their countries. The president responded: "DACA is somewhat different from Dreamers. You understand that... Where do you come from, by the way, originally? Where?" After the woman responded that her grandparents came from Russia and Poland, he stated, "That's very good." He then went on to discuss his border wall with Mexico; that is, keeping the wrong kind of immigrants out.
The Military as a Recruiting Ground for the Far Right
If there is any concept that these groups threatening to disrupt our democracy stand for, it's a version of individual freedom -- like not wearing masks -- that's akin to driving drunk and without putting on a seat belt, rather than waiting for a sober friend to drive you home. Yes, it's more comfortable not to wear a mask or a seatbelt. The short-term benefits, like physical comfort, are tangible, as is perhaps the exhilarating sense that you can do anything you want with your body. (Ask most anti-maskers about abortion rights, however, and you'll get quite a different perspective on the degree to which our bodies should be our own.)
Yet the most current scientific evidence is that if all Americans wore masks (and social-distanced) right now, it would potentially save tens of thousands of lives. In the age of Covid-19, however, concerns over public health restrictions to prevent the spread of the virus, including lockdowns of gyms, bars, and other public facilities, have become political firestorms. Such mandated lockdowns were the main reason various gunmen collaborated with the Wolverine Watchmen in a plot -- fortunately foiled -- to kidnap the governor of Michigan and considered a similar plot against Governor Ralph Northam of Virginia.
Perhaps not coincidentally, people of color -- Blacks and Latinos -- die from Covid-19 at a rate about a third higher than their share of the population. In other words, it couldn't be clearer whose bodily freedoms are really considered at stake in these far-right struggles and whose are expendable.
Perhaps the most disturbing aspect of these groups is that they take a significant part of their manpower and know-how from the United States military with the tacit support of a Republican Senate. As a military spouse as well as the co-founder of Brown University's Costs of War Project, it's been no secret to me that our military's support for bigotry of all kinds is endemic. Racist and sexist remarks are commonplace both on the boats where my husband has served and in gatherings with officer colleagues and their families. Little more than brief reprimands (if that) are handed out in return.
In a country where gun ownership and firearms training are seen by the far right as inalienable, all-American freedoms, the military is a ripe breeding ground for disaffected men looking for individual empowerment, a sense of belonging, and just such training. In fact, a recent New York Times investigation claims that veterans and active-duty military members make up more than a fifth of the membership of America's 300 anti-government, pro-Trump "militia" groups. According to a 2019 survey by the Military Times, about a quarter of active-duty service members reported witnessing signs of white nationalist ideology among their fellow soldiers, including racist and anti-Semitic slurs and homemade explosives shaped like swastikas.
Nothing is more disturbing, when it comes to white nationalist-style hate, than the way the Republicans in Congress have implicitly sanctioned it. In 2019, after the Democratic-controlled House introduced a clause into the Defense Authorization Act to have recruits screened for white nationalist ideology, the Republican Senate nixed the provision. What more need be said?
How did an institution that should be about service to the nation become a petri dish for people who stand for nothing of collective significance? Even one of the favorite and abiding principles of far-right actors (and many Republicans in Congress), the right to bear arms, seems eerily decontextualized from history in a country that leads the world by far in armed citizens (many with distinctly military-style weaponry).
Let's remember that this right was grounded in the idea of organizing the revolutionary army against a colonial power that taxed people without representing them and forcibly billeted its military in their homes. The colonists, while rife with their own history of human-rights violations, were not a bunch of disaffected, irrationally angry individual crusaders with an urge to use weapons to threaten civilians.
Two and a half centuries later, the party that regularly signals its support for the far right's armed tactics still controls the presidency, the upper chamber of Congress, and will soon control the Supreme Court as well. And yet it and its right-wing supporters eternally act as if they were the victims in our world and, from that position of victimization, are now threatening others (and not just Gretchen Whitmer either.)
Many among them still see themselves as subjugated by this country's ruling elite, which may represent a kind of projection or, psychologically speaking, seeing in others the thoughts and feelings one actually harbors in oneself. And as a therapist who has worked with significant numbers of veterans and military service members, I can warn them: don't do it. As I know from some military service members who have told me of their time in distant lands, when they used guns against civilians, it shook to the core their belief in the principle of service to country, leaving them distrustful of the homeland they had been fighting for.
Of course, an increasingly armed far right has responded by creating a world of symbols that are deeply comforting to them. Yet do they really stand for anything?
I was recently appalled by a bumper sticker on a minivan featuring two large guns and three smaller ones aligned together like those stickers that show heterosexual nuclear families. Its tagline: "My guns are my family." At the wheel was a young woman with several children. I balk similarly at pictures on people's lawns that feature Donald Trump's "Make America Great Again" flag -- how did he get a separate flag? -- and the word "Jesus" in all-capital letters.
Guns and small children? A separate Trump state and Jesus? Never before has sociologist Émile Durkheim's idea that religious groups are less in need of a cohesive ideology than symbols to which they can all bow down in unison made more sense to me. Amid such incoherence (and symbolic violence), such an inability to justify their place in this democracy, it might be fairest to say that, as this election campaign heads toward its chaotic climax, Trump and the far right worship little more than one another.
"At Least He Hasn't Started Another War"
In October, the United States passed its 19-year mark in its second Afghan War of the last four decades. In many ways, that war and the dregs of the conflict in Iraq, which the U.S. invaded in the spring of 2003, have become as empty as the war that far-right groups wage in the United States. The hundreds of thousands of dead civilians, the flourishing of terrorist groups far deadlier and angrier than those the U.S. originally sought to defeat, the degradation of basic human rights including the rights to life and health -- the carnage has been significant indeed. As these wars enter or near their third decade, I often hear friends say about President Trump, "At least he hasn't started another war."
Oh, but he has! This time, though, the war is at home. Even the Wolverine Watchmen and their co-collaborators in recent kidnapping plots saw themselves as initiating a civil war, or a boogaloo (to use far-right terminology). Not since the Jim Crow South years have we had to worry about people's physical safety as they approach the polls to cast their vote -- and the "Four More Years" folks and other gun-toting Trump supporters have, I fear, just gotten started. Never would it have been thinkable for a sitting president to overlook, or even implicitly endorse, plots to kidnap and possibly kill elected officials, but Trump has even gone so far as to respond to his supporters at a recent rally in Michigan chanting "Lock her up!" by saying "Lock them all up!" (a play both on his Hillary Clinton chants in the last election and on Governor Whitmer's pandemic lockdown orders).
Twenty years later, our healthcare resources (never sufficient) are further depleted. A pandemic is again spiking across the country. Those who run for office and try to govern with dignity are being challenged in all too threatening ways. Think of it, whether in political or health terms, as our new war zone. I hope that those who appear to vote in person under pandemic conditions and increasing threats of voter intimidation will not come under attack next by far-right groups. To anyone who is listening in elected office anywhere in America: I hope you have a plan for a peaceful transition of power, since the "law-and-order" president is, of course, anything but that when it comes to sustaining our democracy, rather than his presidency.
Andrea Mazzarino, a TomDispatch regular, co-founded Brown University's Costs of War Project. She has held various clinical, research, and advocacy positions, including at a Veterans Affairs PTSD Outpatient Clinic, with Human Rights Watch, and at a community mental health agency. She is the co-editor of War and Health: The Medical Consequences of the Wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Follow TomDispatch on Twitter and join us on Facebook. Check out the newest Dispatch Books, John Feffer's new dystopian novel (the second in the Splinterlands series) Frostlands, Beverly Gologorsky's novel Every Body Has a Story, and Tom Engelhardt's A Nation Unmade by War, as well as Alfred McCoy's In the Shadows of the American Century: The Rise and Decline of U.S. Global Power and John Dower's The Violent American Century: War and Terror Since World War II.
Copyright 2020 Andrea Mazzarino