usatoday--2020-01-12--Once overlooked, Bernie Sanders now has momentum. Here's why his camp thinks this time, he can win

Three months ago , Sen. Bernie Sanders was back in Vermont , recovering from a heart attack and heart surgery that knocked him off the 2020 campaign trail and kicked off a tidal wave of questions about whether he could go forward in the Democratic primary , let alone win it .
Counted out by many after the health scare and overlooked for months while former mayor Pete Buttigieg , former Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Elizabeth Warren dominated headlines , Sanders is now riding an uptick in polling and a new narrative around his campaign in the political @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this time ?
The 78-year-old U.S .
Senator from Vermont , a self-described democratic socialist who has pushed for a working-class revolution , is solidly second in most national polls behind Biden , and he either leads or is tied in recent polls in the first two states that vote , Iowa and New Hampshire .
Questions still persist whether Sanders , who fell short in the 2016 Democratic primary to Hillary Clinton , can expand and diversify his loyal base of young , predominantly white , progressives to secure the nomination .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ have bounced around in polls , and his campaign says he 's built to cross the finish-line .
They point to stronger numbers among young black voters and Hispanic voters this time around and an ability to attract first-time primary voters .
Sanders on the issues : The 2020 candidate shares his views on health care , student debt , gun control and more '' I think the two people who will absolutely be in it until the end are Biden and Bernie , '' said Joe Trippi , a longtime Democratic campaign @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a Biden-Bernie race the way Clinton-Bernie did ?
Or is it three or four other people , billionaires , fighting it out until the end ?
I do n't know . ''
A win in Iowa , where Sanders has steadily climbed in polls for weeks and has a robust organization , would give him considerable momentum heading into his neighboring New Hampshire , which he won four years ago , and Nevada , where he finished a close second behind Clinton .
He remains far behind in South Carolina , where Biden @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has given him a commanding lead .
But the Sanders team has pumped major resources into delegate-rich California , which votes along with 13 states on Super Tuesday on March 3 .
There 's such an emphasis on winning California that the Sanders campaign internally refers to the `` early 5 '' states .
Early voting in California begins Feb. 3 , the same day as the first-in-the-nation Iowa caucuses .
`` We are the candidate who has a base , '' Sanders Iowa State Director Misty Rebik told the Des Moines Register @ @ @ @ @ @ @ like Sanders supporters have for their candidate , is critical to compete in Iowa 's caucus system .
Still , Trippi said he gives Biden an `` absolute edge '' to go on to win the nomination over Sanders and other candidates because of his widespread support of black voters , a key constituency in any Democratic primary that will become more crucial as the race nationalizes .
`` Like any of them , he 's got to be able to break into Biden 's strength with African Americans in order to get @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2020 candidates on the issues : Here 's where the Democrats stand on climate change , immigration , gun violence and more More : California 's primary is way earlier in 2020 .
Is that good for Democrats ?
For much of the past year , buzz in the primary centered on the out-of-nowhere rise of Buttigieg , the emergence of Biden as an immediate front-runner and scrutiny of the latter 's voting record .
Some party insiders viewed Sanders as too far left to compete againand predicted his support from 2016 would @ @ @ @ @ @ @ who also is trying to appeal to the progressive lane of the party , was widely seen as a more electable alternative to Sanders and enjoyed a steady ascension through the summer .
Warren , whose mantra is `` big structural change , '' soared to a virtual tie with Biden in early October , around the same time Sanders suffered a heart attack .
But days later , Sanders received a major boost when one of the most popular figures among liberals , U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez , D-New York , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Omar , D-Minn. , and Rep. Rashida Tlaib , D-Michigan endorsed his candidacy .
Their backing proved to be critical validation from the left — at a time when Sanders was trailing — to dispel speculation that Sanders ' health might compromise his candidacy .
Ocasio-Cortez formally announced her support at a massive rally in Queens , New York , in front of some 25,000 people after informing the senator of her decision days before by phone while he was recovering in a hospital bed .
She called it a `` gut-check '' @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be dishonest of me not to let folks know how I feel about this race , '' Ocasio-Cortez said at the time .
Marking his return to the campaign trial , Sanders told the crowd , `` I 'm back . ''
As Sanders found his footing and Buttigieg picked up momentum as a center-left candidate , Warren began a consistent slide in polls that coincided with a heavily scrutinized rollout of her `` Medicare for All '' plan in November .
More : Bernie Sanders is n't polling in first place .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ n't matter '' His big problem was Warren and her surge , and then she kind of took care of that , '' said Rachel Bitecofer , a political scientist whose model most accurately predicted the 2018 midterms .
She called Warren 's release of a health care plan with a $ 20.5 trillion price tag a `` strategic blunder . ''
`` Initially what I had expected to happen , as we moved through the fall and ( Warren ) was gaining momentum , is she would probably invert with ( Sanders @ @ @ @ @ @ @ said .
`` Instead , what 's happening so far is they 're re-inverting and he 's reasserting himself as the progressive frontrunner . ''
Bitecofer added : `` Right now , if I had to say , he 's going to be the advantaged progressive frontrunner heading into the actual formal primary . ''
Skeptics underestimated two strengths of Sanders — the loyalty of his supporters and his grassroots fundraising prowess .
Polling consistently shows Sanders supporters are the least likely to jump to a different candidate .
He 's also set @ @ @ @ @ @ @ impressive $ 34.5 million haul in the fourth quarter , tops among all candidates , thanks to individual donations from 1.8 million people .
More : Bernie Sanders presidential campaign says it raised $ 34.5 million in the final quarter of 2019 More : 'The halls of Congress are no joke ' : AOC reflects on Congress as she endorses Sanders But two hurdles remain for Sanders to secure nomination , according Bitecofer .
Despite pulling ahead , Sanders still splits the progressive bloc of voters with Warren , which works to the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ his lagging numbers with African American voters , whose whose strong support for Biden has made him the frontrunner .
`` If Biden can be in the top-tier in Iowa and New Hampshire — he does n't have to necessarily win there , but just be close to the winners — and if he comes in and wins in South Carolina and has a great Super Tuesday , it puts him in a very good spot to win the nomination , '' Bitecofer said .
She called the hurdle Sanders faces a `` @ @ @ @ @ @ @ n't turn around numbers with voters of color , he ca n't win the nomination .
A poll taken Dec. 30 through Jan. 5 from Morning Consult found Biden had support among 42 percent of black Democratic primary voters and Sanders in second among African American support , with 24 percent .
But Sanders performs better among young black voters .
A poll from the BlackPAC political action committee , reported last month by Politico , found Sanders with support among 30 percent of black voters ages 18 to 24 and 25 percent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Biden in both categories .
The same survey had Biden leading Sanders among all black voters 38-15 percent .
Also notable for the Sanders campaign , the Morning Consult poll found Sanders leading among Hispanic voters , with 36 percent , up 7 points since last month , topping Biden 's 24 percent among Hispanic voters .
Support among Latino voters will be key in Nevada , California as well as Texas , another Super Tuesday prize where Biden is leading .
Jeff Weaver , a senior advisor for the Sanders campaign , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the nomination .
In 2016 , Clinton capitalized on support among voters of color and older voters to carry herself to victory after a drawn-out primary fight .
`` The coalition that he 's building is a multi-racial coalition that starts off much bigger than the 2016 coalition that he put together with much more potential to grow , '' Weaver said `` In addition , we are continuing to reach out to working-class voters from every community to try to get folks involved in the political process who have given up on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ eye toward Biden 's frontrunner status , Sanders has increasingly gone on the attack against Biden , slamming the former vice president 's record as `` so weak , '' singling out his support of NAFTA , past statements about Social Security and vote for the Iraq War .
In addition to overcoming Biden , Sanders will have to unite all factions of the Democratic Party .
The Associated Press reported this week about growing alarm raised by party insiders about a possible Sanders candidacy .
That includes former aides of President Barack @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for `` Medicare for All '' and other progressive proposals wo n't play well in battleground states .
Several former Obama aides have put their support behind Buttigieg .
“ You need a candidate with a message that can help us win swing voters in battleground states , ” Rahm Emanuel , former mayor of Chicago and Obama chief of staff , told the AP .
“ The degree of difficulty dramatically increases under a Bernie Sanders candidacy .
It just gets a lot harder.
” Weaver rejected the suggestion that Sanders is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Trump .
`` A lot of these establishment Democratic consultants and lobbyists in Washington , these are the people who lost to Donald Trump in 2016 , '' Weaver said .
`` I think that they are poorly placed in terms of being able to analyze the current race . ''
He said the Washington establishment , both Democratic and Republican , know that a Sanders presidency will `` erase much of their relevancy in the American political process , '' adding that , `` For many of those people , Bernie Sanders @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Donald Trump . ''
`` What we have got to do is nominate somebody who speaks authentically to the needs of working class people in every zip code and put that person up against Donald Trump who made promises about how he was going to protect the working class but has betrayed the working class in this country , '' Weaver said .
`` That 's the way Democrats will win the White House . ''

Once overlooked, Bernie Sanders now has momentum. Here's why his camp thinks this time, he can win
Show Caption Hide Caption How polls work: The science behind gathering voter opinions The news cycle is jampacked with polls. But have you ever wondered how polls actually work and what they mean? Just the FAQs, USA TODAY
Three months ago, Sen. Bernie Sanders was back in Vermont, recovering from a heart attack and heart surgery that knocked him off the 2020 campaign trail and kicked off a tidal wave of questions about whether he could go forward in the Democratic primary, let alone win it.
Counted out by many after the health scare and overlooked for months while former mayor Pete Buttigieg, former Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Elizabeth Warren dominated headlines, Sanders is now riding an uptick in polling and a new narrative around his campaign in the political mediasphere: Could Bernie Sanders really win this time?
The 78-year-old U.S. Senator from Vermont, a self-described democratic socialist who has pushed for a working-class revolution, is solidly second in most national polls behind Biden, and he either leads or is tied in recent polls in the first two states that vote, Iowa and New Hampshire.
Questions still persist whether Sanders, who fell short in the 2016 Democratic primary to Hillary Clinton, can expand and diversify his loyal base of young, predominantly white, progressives to secure the nomination.
But Sanders has demonstrated consistency while rivals have bounced around in polls, and his campaign says he's built to cross the finish-line. They point to stronger numbers among young black voters and Hispanic voters this time around and an ability to attract first-time primary voters.
Sanders on the issues: The 2020 candidate shares his views on health care, student debt, gun control and more
"I think the two people who will absolutely be in it until the end are Biden and Bernie," said Joe Trippi, a longtime Democratic campaign operative. "Does it turn into a Biden-Bernie race the way Clinton-Bernie did? Or is it three or four other people, billionaires, fighting it out until the end? I don't know."
A win in Iowa, where Sanders has steadily climbed in polls for weeks and has a robust organization, would give him considerable momentum heading into his neighboring New Hampshire, which he won four years ago, and Nevada, where he finished a close second behind Clinton.
He remains far behind in South Carolina, where Biden's strong support among African American voters has given him a commanding lead. But the Sanders team has pumped major resources into delegate-rich California, which votes along with 13 states on Super Tuesday on March 3. There's such an emphasis on winning California that the Sanders campaign internally refers to the "early 5" states. Early voting in California begins Feb. 3, the same day as the first-in-the-nation Iowa caucuses.
"We are the candidate who has a base," Sanders Iowa State Director Misty Rebik told the Des Moines Register, arguing that strong voter enthusiasm, like Sanders supporters have for their candidate, is critical to compete in Iowa's caucus system.
Still, Trippi said he gives Biden an "absolute edge" to go on to win the nomination over Sanders and other candidates because of his widespread support of black voters, a key constituency in any Democratic primary that will become more crucial as the race nationalizes.
"Like any of them, he's got to be able to break into Biden's strength with African Americans in order to get by him," he said.
2020 candidates on the issues: Here's where the Democrats stand on climate change, immigration, gun violence and more
More: California's primary is way earlier in 2020. Is that good for Democrats?
For much of the past year, buzz in the primary centered on the out-of-nowhere rise of Buttigieg, the emergence of Biden as an immediate front-runner and scrutiny of the latter's voting record. Some party insiders viewed Sanders as too far left to compete again and predicted his support from 2016 would shift elsewhere. Warren, D-Massachusetts, who also is trying to appeal to the progressive lane of the party, was widely seen as a more electable alternative to Sanders and enjoyed a steady ascension through the summer.
Bernie Sanders shares message of unity at menorah lighting U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders responds to the news of five people being stabbed during a Hanukkah celebration in New York last night while attending a menorah lighting ceremony in Des Moines. Kelsey Kremer, kkremer@dmreg.com
Warren, whose mantra is "big structural change," soared to a virtual tie with Biden in early October, around the same time Sanders suffered a heart attack. But days later, Sanders received a major boost when one of the most popular figures among liberals, U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-New York, and fellow "Squad" members Rep. Ilhan Omar, D-Minn., and Rep. Rashida Tlaib, D-Michigan endorsed his candidacy. Their backing proved to be critical validation from the left — at a time when Sanders was trailing — to dispel speculation that Sanders' health might compromise his candidacy.
Ocasio-Cortez formally announced her support at a massive rally in Queens, New York, in front of some 25,000 people after informing the senator of her decision days before by phone while he was recovering in a hospital bed. She called it a "gut-check" moment for her.
"It would be dishonest of me not to let folks know how I feel about this race," Ocasio-Cortez said at the time.
Marking his return to the campaign trial, Sanders told the crowd, "I'm back."
As Sanders found his footing and Buttigieg picked up momentum as a center-left candidate, Warren began a consistent slide in polls that coincided with a heavily scrutinized rollout of her "Medicare for All" plan in November.
Health care: Here's where the 2020 candidates stand
More: Bernie Sanders isn't polling in first place. His caucus organization may mean that doesn't matter
"His big problem was Warren and her surge, and then she kind of took care of that," said Rachel Bitecofer, a political scientist whose model most accurately predicted the 2018 midterms. She called Warren's release of a health care plan with a $20.5 trillion price tag a "strategic blunder."
"Initially what I had expected to happen, as we moved through the fall and (Warren) was gaining momentum, is she would probably invert with (Sanders) and stay inverted," Bitecofer said. "Instead, what's happening so far is they're re-inverting and he's reasserting himself as the progressive frontrunner."
Bitecofer added: "Right now, if I had to say, he's going to be the advantaged progressive frontrunner heading into the actual formal primary."
A brief look at Bernie Sanders' path through Iowa U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders attended 117 public events in Iowa in 2019. Kelsey Kremer, kkremer@dmreg.com
Skeptics underestimated two strengths of Sanders — the loyalty of his supporters and his grassroots fundraising prowess. Polling consistently shows Sanders supporters are the least likely to jump to a different candidate. He's also set the bar in fundraising, posting an impressive $34.5 million haul in the fourth quarter, tops among all candidates, thanks to individual donations from 1.8 million people.
More: Bernie Sanders presidential campaign says it raised $34.5 million in the final quarter of 2019
More: 'The halls of Congress are no joke': AOC reflects on Congress as she endorses Sanders
But two hurdles remain for Sanders to secure nomination, according Bitecofer. Despite pulling ahead, Sanders still splits the progressive bloc of voters with Warren, which works to the advantage of Biden. Then there's his lagging numbers with African American voters, whose whose strong support for Biden has made him the frontrunner.
"If Biden can be in the top-tier in Iowa and New Hampshire — he doesn't have to necessarily win there, but just be close to the winners — and if he comes in and wins in South Carolina and has a great Super Tuesday, it puts him in a very good spot to win the nomination," Bitecofer said.
She called the hurdle Sanders faces a "mathematical fact" — if he can't turn around numbers with voters of color, he can't win the nomination.
A poll taken Dec. 30 through Jan. 5 from Morning Consult found Biden had support among 42 percent of black Democratic primary voters and Sanders in second among African American support, with 24 percent.
But Sanders performs better among young black voters. A poll from the BlackPAC political action committee, reported last month by Politico, found Sanders with support among 30 percent of black voters ages 18 to 24 and 25 percent among voters 25 to 39, besting Biden in both categories. The same survey had Biden leading Sanders among all black voters 38-15 percent.
Also notable for the Sanders campaign, the Morning Consult poll found Sanders leading among Hispanic voters, with 36 percent, up 7 points since last month, topping Biden's 24 percent among Hispanic voters. Support among Latino voters will be key in Nevada, California as well as Texas, another Super Tuesday prize where Biden is leading.
Jeff Weaver, a senior advisor for the Sanders campaign, said these trends show Sanders can win the nomination. In 2016, Clinton capitalized on support among voters of color and older voters to carry herself to victory after a drawn-out primary fight.
"The coalition that he's building is a multi-racial coalition that starts off much bigger than the 2016 coalition that he put together with much more potential to grow," Weaver said "In addition, we are continuing to reach out to working-class voters from every community to try to get folks involved in the political process who have given up on traditional politics."
Seemingly with an eye toward Biden's frontrunner status, Sanders has increasingly gone on the attack against Biden, slamming the former vice president's record as "so weak," singling out his support of NAFTA, past statements about Social Security and vote for the Iraq War.
In addition to overcoming Biden, Sanders will have to unite all factions of the Democratic Party.
The Associated Press reported this week about growing alarm raised by party insiders about a possible Sanders candidacy. That includes former aides of President Barack Obama who have warned that his push for "Medicare for All" and other progressive proposals won't play well in battleground states. Several former Obama aides have put their support behind Buttigieg.
“You need a candidate with a message that can help us win swing voters in battleground states,” Rahm Emanuel, former mayor of Chicago and Obama chief of staff, told the AP. “The degree of difficulty dramatically increases under a Bernie Sanders candidacy. It just gets a lot harder.”
Weaver rejected the suggestion that Sanders is not electable in a general election against Trump.
"A lot of these establishment Democratic consultants and lobbyists in Washington, these are the people who lost to Donald Trump in 2016," Weaver said. "I think that they are poorly placed in terms of being able to analyze the current race."
He said the Washington establishment, both Democratic and Republican, know that a Sanders presidency will "erase much of their relevancy in the American political process," adding that, "For many of those people, Bernie Sanders is a much more terrifying figure than Donald Trump."
"What we have got to do is nominate somebody who speaks authentically to the needs of working class people in every zip code and put that person up against Donald Trump who made promises about how he was going to protect the working class but has betrayed the working class in this country," Weaver said. "That's the way Democrats will win the White House."
Staff writer Nick Coltrain contributed to this report.
Reach Joey Garrison and on Twitter @joeygarrison.


usatoday--2020-01-12--Did Iran mean to kill Americans in its Iraq attack? The answer hints at how far Iran will go to chal

WASHINGTON – When President Donald Trump tweeted `` All is Well ! ''
Tuesday after Iran 's missile attack on two U.S. air bases in Iraq , the danger of imminent war seemed to have passed .
No casualties .
It was a warning shot , said a U.S. official after dawn broke Wednesday in the desert .
Many outside national security experts agreed , saying they believed Iran took deliberate steps to avoid American casualties .
And in a televised address , Trump spoke of `` minimal damage '' and `` Iran standing down '' in a relatively restrained @ @ @ @ @ @ @ killed Iran 's second-most powerful figure , Maj. Gen. Qasem Soleimani .
But by dusk in Washington , the official assessment had darkened .
Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley became the first of several administration officials to assert Iran had indeed sought to kill U.S. soldiers and destroy vehicles and warplanes .
Days later , Iran 's intentions remain a subject of intense debate and some outside experts harbor doubts about Milley 's assertion .
Iran has been even less clear .
Brig .
Gen. Amir Ali Hajizadeh , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s Aerospace Force , said Tehran was not trying to kill anyone `` although tens of US troops have likely been killed and wounded , '' according to Iran 's Fars News Agency .
The question of whether Iran tried to kill U.S. soldiers or merely rattle Americans with a warning shot is significant because the answer hints at how far Tehran is willing to go to challenge the country it calls the `` Great Satan . ''
Persian Gulf : Iran got its revenge for Qasem Soleimani 's killing but the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ This is the first , not the final , shot from Iran , '' said Eric Brewer , a fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies who focused on Iran issues at Trump 's National Security Council .
`` Whether or not Iran intended to kill Americans , I do n't think we should expect that this is the only step that Iran is going to take on . ''
If Iran wanted to , it could have In the chaos before dawn on Wednesday , officials scurried to assess damage @ @ @ @ @ @ @ had fired at two air bases U.S. and coalition troops occupy in Iraq : al-Assad in the western part of the country and Erbil in the north .
Eleven missiles struck at al-Assad , and one fell near Erbil .
The rest failed to reach their targets .
By midmorning Wednesday , those officials , privy to initial assessments , told USA TODAY that the lack of casualties and relatively minor damage to tents , a helicopter and a hangar probably were intended as a warning that worse could be in store .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ 's capability , displayed in September , to target with precision and damage oil production facilities in Saudi Arabia .
If Iran wanted to hit a target , a senior U.S. official said , it would have .
That view gained currency with Trump 's address .
Backed by Defense Secretary Mark Esper , Vice President Mike Pence , Milley and members of the Joint Chiefs of Staff , Trump signaled Wednesday that tit-for-tat steps toward war seemed to have stopped .
`` Iran appears to be standing down , which is a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a very good thing for the world , '' he said .
Trump vs. Tehran : Iraqis stuck in the middle in battle for Middle East influence By Friday , the message had changed .
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo told reporters , `` There ’ s no doubt in my judgment , as I observed the Iranian activity in the region that night , they had the full intention of carrying – killing U.S. forces , whether that was our military folks or diplomatic folks who were in the region . ''
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ suggested that if Iran 's aim was to kill U.S. troops , it would have launched more missiles and probably picked different targets , such as the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad or other parts of the Green Zone where there could have been hundreds of casualties , if not more .
The Iranians waged the bet , fraught with risk but deemed necessary , to launch a conventional attack on U.S. forces to avenge Soleimani 's death .
Mark Quantock , a retired two-star Army general who served as director of intelligence for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sought to mitigate the risk by signaling the strike long enough in advance to allow U.S. forces to prepare .
In fact , the attack did not surprise U.S. forces .
Troops had hours to prepare for the attack , dispersing personnel to bunkers well before the missiles crashed down , according to a U.S. official not authorized to speak publicly .
The warning came from U.S. intelligence sources and was shared with American allies , the official said .
“ They were trying to kill equipment and housing , ” Quantock said @ @ @ @ @ @ @ knew we were watching .
Through technical means , we would know that they were fueling missiles and positioning them .
They also knew the Iraqis would tell us.
” Second attack : Pentagon launched second attack on an Iranian militant the same day it killed Soleimani But if what Pompeo and other officials are now asserting is true – that Iran ordered a lethal strike – the U.S. was a lot closer to war this week than many people assumed .
Given time to shelter in bunkers , U.S. forces across Iraq @ @ @ @ @ @ @ dozen ballistic missiles .
Iran ’ s goal was to destroy several aircraft and perhaps a munitions bunker that could generate a spectacular explosion , Quantock said .
Had any Americans died , a strike on the Iranian bases that launched the missiles almost certainly would have been the Pentagon 's next move , he said .
“ Now you ’ re hitting Iran proper , ” he said .
“ That ups the ante substantially.
” On Friday , U.S. officials reported Iraq was quiet .
And it may remain so for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it 's hardly over .
“ This is phase one of their response , ” he said .
Thomas Warrick , a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council , pointed to Iran 's `` peculiar sense of symmetry '' when it comes to its international views and taking action against the U.S. '' What we or our allies do to them , they do back to us , not exactly in the same way , but in a similar way , '' he said during a panel discussion Thursday .
`` This in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I think many people opining on these issues tries to say . ''
While experts agreed further military strikes from Tehran were unlikely , Warrick pointed to comments by President Hassan Rouhani and the Islamic Republic 's Supreme Leader , Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini , who have both said Iran 's strategic objective is to drive U.S. forces from the region .
How Iran plans to achieve that goal is less clear .
Trump-Trudeau : Downing of Ukrainian airliner Iran could draw Trump and Trudeau together Iran , as Trump noted , may be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ said he expected two more waves of attacks in the coming weeks and months .
The next threat comes from the Iranian-backed militias whose rocket attacks killed an American contractor on Dec. 27 near Erbil .
They also laid siege to the U.S Embassy in Iraq .
Soleimani had firm control over their actions , but his successor is expected to have less influence .
They held Soleimani in high regard and will seek vengeance .
“ Blood for blood , ” Quantock said .
“ Likely mortars or rocket attacks .
Damage @ @ @ @ @ @ @ forces , long fostered by Soleimani , pose greater risks of renewed conflict with Iran because the Trump administration has been quicker than prior administrations to blame Tehran for attacks by regional militia groups , CSIS 's Brewer said .
The most recent spate of tensions between Washington and Tehran came after Pompeo blamed Iran for attacks on Saudi oil refineries in September that disrupted 5 % of the world 's global oil supply .
Yemen 's Iranian-backed Houthi rebels claimed responsibility for the strikes , but Pompeo insisted Iran was behind the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sanctions on the Islamic Republic .
Finally , the Quds Force that Soleimani led has international reach , creating risks for U.S. embassies and personnel around the world .
Still Warrick warned the gamble the Iranians took show they 're relying too much on luck , noting it was `` by the grace of God no one was killed '' during the strikes on the two Iraqi air bases .
`` It 's a huge mistake to rely on luck to save your country from a major and devastating military response , which @ @ @ @ @ @ @ simply decided to go out and retrieve an item in their tent , '' he said .
`` And that kind of action is as dangerous as anything else that I 've heard criticized from any party in this dispute , '' Warrick said .

Tom Vanden Brook and Courtney Subramanian, USA TODAY

Did Iran mean to kill Americans in its Iraq attack? The answer hints at how far Iran will go to challenge US
Show Caption Hide Caption Are we really ready for a World War III? Fears are mounting around the world following the assassination of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani - but is World War 3 about to happen? Just the FAQs, USA TODAY
WASHINGTON – When President Donald Trump tweeted "All is Well!" Tuesday after Iran's missile attack on two U.S. air bases in Iraq, the danger of imminent war seemed to have passed.
No casualties. It was a warning shot, said a U.S. official after dawn broke Wednesday in the desert. Many outside national security experts agreed, saying they believed Iran took deliberate steps to avoid American casualties. And in a televised address, Trump spoke of "minimal damage" and "Iran standing down" in a relatively restrained retaliation for the U.S. drone strike that killed Iran's second-most powerful figure, Maj. Gen. Qasem Soleimani.
But by dusk in Washington, the official assessment had darkened. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley became the first of several administration officials to assert Iran had indeed sought to kill U.S. soldiers and destroy vehicles and warplanes.
Days later, Iran's intentions remain a subject of intense debate and some outside experts harbor doubts about Milley's assertion. Iran has been even less clear. Brig. Gen. Amir Ali Hajizadeh, commander of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard’s Aerospace Force, said Tehran was not trying to kill anyone "although tens of US troops have likely been killed and wounded," according to Iran's Fars News Agency.
The question of whether Iran tried to kill U.S. soldiers or merely rattle Americans with a warning shot is significant because the answer hints at how far Tehran is willing to go to challenge the country it calls the "Great Satan."
Persian Gulf: Iran got its revenge for Qasem Soleimani's killing but the US Navy is still a target
"This is the first, not the final, shot from Iran," said Eric Brewer, a fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies who focused on Iran issues at Trump's National Security Council. "Whether or not Iran intended to kill Americans, I don't think we should expect that this is the only step that Iran is going to take on."
If Iran wanted to, it could have
In the chaos before dawn on Wednesday, officials scurried to assess damage from 16 short-range ballistic missiles that Iran had fired at two air bases U.S. and coalition troops occupy in Iraq: al-Assad in the western part of the country and Erbil in the north. Eleven missiles struck at al-Assad, and one fell near Erbil. The rest failed to reach their targets.
By midmorning Wednesday, those officials, privy to initial assessments, told USA TODAY that the lack of casualties and relatively minor damage to tents, a helicopter and a hangar probably were intended as a warning that worse could be in store. Part of that theory rests on Iran's capability, displayed in September, to target with precision and damage oil production facilities in Saudi Arabia. If Iran wanted to hit a target, a senior U.S. official said, it would have.
That view gained currency with Trump's address. Backed by Defense Secretary Mark Esper, Vice President Mike Pence, Milley and members of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Trump signaled Wednesday that tit-for-tat steps toward war seemed to have stopped.
"Iran appears to be standing down, which is a good thing for all parties concerned and a very good thing for the world," he said.
Trump vs. Tehran: Iraqis stuck in the middle in battle for Middle East influence
By Friday, the message had changed. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo told reporters, "There’s no doubt in my judgment, as I observed the Iranian activity in the region that night, they had the full intention of carrying – killing U.S. forces, whether that was our military folks or diplomatic folks who were in the region."
National security experts and many prominent lawmakers suggested that if Iran's aim was to kill U.S. troops, it would have launched more missiles and probably picked different targets, such as the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad or other parts of the Green Zone where there could have been hundreds of casualties, if not more.
The Iranians waged the bet, fraught with risk but deemed necessary, to launch a conventional attack on U.S. forces to avenge Soleimani's death.
Mark Quantock, a retired two-star Army general who served as director of intelligence for Central Command, said it appeared Iran sought to mitigate the risk by signaling the strike long enough in advance to allow U.S. forces to prepare.
In fact, the attack did not surprise U.S. forces.
Troops had hours to prepare for the attack, dispersing personnel to bunkers well before the missiles crashed down, according to a U.S. official not authorized to speak publicly. The warning came from U.S. intelligence sources and was shared with American allies, the official said.
“They were trying to kill equipment and housing,” Quantock said. “They signaled the attack and knew we were watching. Through technical means, we would know that they were fueling missiles and positioning them. They also knew the Iraqis would tell us.”
Second attack: Pentagon launched second attack on an Iranian militant the same day it killed Soleimani
Deaths would have sparked retaliation
But if what Pompeo and other officials are now asserting is true – that Iran ordered a lethal strike – the U.S. was a lot closer to war this week than many people assumed.
Given time to shelter in bunkers, U.S. forces across Iraq withstood the attack by more than a dozen ballistic missiles. Iran’s goal was to destroy several aircraft and perhaps a munitions bunker that could generate a spectacular explosion, Quantock said.
Had any Americans died, a strike on the Iranian bases that launched the missiles almost certainly would have been the Pentagon's next move, he said.
“Now you’re hitting Iran proper,” he said. “That ups the ante substantially.”
Trump's war powers: House votes to limit President Trump's war powers after Soleimani killing
On Friday, U.S. officials reported Iraq was quiet. And it may remain so for some time, Quantock said, but it's hardly over.
“This is phase one of their response,” he said.
Thomas Warrick, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, pointed to Iran's "peculiar sense of symmetry" when it comes to its international views and taking action against the U.S.
"What we or our allies do to them, they do back to us, not exactly in the same way, but in a similar way," he said during a panel discussion Thursday. "This in fact makes Iran much more predictable than I think many people opining on these issues tries to say."
While experts agreed further military strikes from Tehran were unlikely, Warrick pointed to comments by President Hassan Rouhani and the Islamic Republic's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, who have both said Iran's strategic objective is to drive U.S. forces from the region. How Iran plans to achieve that goal is less clear.
Trump-Trudeau: Downing of Ukrainian airliner Iran could draw Trump and Trudeau together
'Blood for blood'
Iran, as Trump noted, may be standing down. For now. Quantock said he expected two more waves of attacks in the coming weeks and months.
The next threat comes from the Iranian-backed militias whose rocket attacks killed an American contractor on Dec. 27 near Erbil. They also laid siege to the U.S Embassy in Iraq. Soleimani had firm control over their actions, but his successor is expected to have less influence. They held Soleimani in high regard and will seek vengeance.
“Blood for blood,” Quantock said. “Likely mortars or rocket attacks. Damage, explosions and casualties.”
Such proxy forces, long fostered by Soleimani, pose greater risks of renewed conflict with Iran because the Trump administration has been quicker than prior administrations to blame Tehran for attacks by regional militia groups, CSIS's Brewer said.
Iran sanctions: Trump administration hits Iran with new economic sanctions
The most recent spate of tensions between Washington and Tehran came after Pompeo blamed Iran for attacks on Saudi oil refineries in September that disrupted 5% of the world's global oil supply. Yemen's Iranian-backed Houthi rebels claimed responsibility for the strikes, but Pompeo insisted Iran was behind the attacks. Trump responded by imposing harsher sanctions on the Islamic Republic.
Finally, the Quds Force that Soleimani led has international reach, creating risks for U.S. embassies and personnel around the world.
Still Warrick warned the gamble the Iranians took show they're relying too much on luck, noting it was "by the grace of God no one was killed" during the strikes on the two Iraqi air bases.
"It's a huge mistake to rely on luck to save your country from a major and devastating military response, which would have been the case if someone simply decided to go out and retrieve an item in their tent," he said.
"And that kind of action is as dangerous as anything else that I've heard criticized from any party in this dispute," Warrick said.
Ilhan Omar: Republicans mock Ilhan Omar for saying Iran war talk sparked PTSD


usatoday--2020-01-12--'The world is watching': Trump tweets in support of Iran protests

As anti-government protesters took to the streets in Tehran against Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei , President Donald Trump tweeted in support and called for international monitors .
`` The government of Iran must allow human rights groups to monitor and report facts from the ground on the ongoing protests by the Iranian people , '' Trump tweeted in English and Farsi .
`` There can not be another massacre of peaceful protesters , nor an internet shutdown .
The world is watching . ''
Trump was referencing the Iranian government 's crackdown on anti-government protests over a spike @ @ @ @ @ @ @ government quashed protests by arresting , injuring and killing protesters and shutting down the country 's internet .
On Friday , the Iranian government accepted blame for the downing of a Ukrainian airliner Wednesday , sparking protests against the Iranian government 's handling of the incident .
The United Kingdom Ambassador to Iran was arrested and briefly detained by Iranian authorities after attending Saturday 's protest .
British Foreign Minister Dominic Raab slammed the arrest as a `` flagrant violation of international law . ''
In a tweet , State Department spokesperson Morgan @ @ @ @ @ @ @ apologize to the British government and to `` respect the rights of all diplomats . ''
The Ukrainian jet was shot down by the Iranian military , which had mistaken it for a cruise missile , killing all 176 people aboard .
The government had insisted a missile had not caused the plane 's crash .
But in a statement on Friday Eastern Standard Time , the Iranian military said the plane was mistaken for a “ hostile target ” after it turned toward a “ sensitive military center ” of the Revolutionary @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Iranian state media on Saturday morning local time .
The plane 's downing occurred shortly after Iranian missiles struck U.S. bases in Iraq in retaliation for the killing of top Iranian General Qasem Soleimani in an airstrike ordered by Trump .
More : Exclusive : Americans say Soleimani 's killing made US less safe , Trump 'reckless ' on Iran The tensions between the two countries , however , did not reach any further levels of military escalation .
On Thursday , Trump announced further sanctions on Iran , saying Iran `` appears @ @ @ @ @ @ @ also tweeted a message in both English and Farsi expressing support for the people of Iran .
`` We are following your protests closely , and are inspired by your courage , '' he wrote .

'The world is watching': Trump tweets in support of Iran protests
Show Caption Hide Caption Protests erupt after Tehran admits Ukrainian plane crash unintentional President Donald Trump tweeted his support for anti-government protests after Iran admits they accidentally shot down the passenger jet. USA TODAY
As anti-government protesters took to the streets in Tehran against Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, President Donald Trump tweeted in support and called for international monitors.
"The government of Iran must allow human rights groups to monitor and report facts from the ground on the ongoing protests by the Iranian people," Trump tweeted in English and Farsi. "There can not be another massacre of peaceful protesters, nor an internet shutdown. The world is watching."
Trump was referencing the Iranian government's crackdown on anti-government protests over a spike in gas prices last November. The government quashed protests by arresting, injuring and killing protesters and shutting down the country's internet.
On Friday, the Iranian government accepted blame for the downing of a Ukrainian airliner Wednesday, sparking protests against the Iranian government's handling of the incident.
The United Kingdom Ambassador to Iran was arrested and briefly detained by Iranian authorities after attending Saturday's protest. British Foreign Minister Dominic Raab slammed the arrest as a "flagrant violation of international law."
In a tweet, State Department spokesperson Morgan Ortagus called on the Iranian government to apologize to the British government and to "respect the rights of all diplomats."
The Iranian regime arrested the British ambassador to Iran. This violates the Vienna Convention, which the regime has a notorious history of violating. We call on the regime to formally apologize to the UK for violating his rights and to respect the rights of all diplomats. — Morgan Ortagus (@statedeptspox) January 11, 2020
The Ukrainian jet was shot down by the Iranian military, which had mistaken it for a cruise missile, killing all 176 people aboard. The government had insisted a missile had not caused the plane's crash. But in a statement on Friday Eastern Standard Time, the Iranian military said the plane was mistaken for a “hostile target” after it turned toward a “sensitive military center” of the Revolutionary Guard. The statement was carried by Iranian state media on Saturday morning local time.
The plane's downing occurred shortly after Iranian missiles struck U.S. bases in Iraq in retaliation for the killing of top Iranian General Qasem Soleimani in an airstrike ordered by Trump.
Are we really ready for a World War III? Fears are mounting around the world following the assassination of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani - but is World War 3 about to happen? Just the FAQs, USA TODAY
More: As Iran accepts blame for Ukrainian plane crash, Canada demands justice, answers
More: Exclusive: Americans say Soleimani's killing made US less safe, Trump 'reckless' on Iran
The tensions between the two countries, however, did not reach any further levels of military escalation. On Thursday, Trump announced further sanctions on Iran, saying Iran "appears to be standing down."
Trump also tweeted a message in both English and Farsi expressing support for the people of Iran.
"We are following your protests closely, and are inspired by your courage," he wrote.
به مردم شجاع و رنج کشیده ایران: من از ابتدای دوره ریاست جمهوریم با شما ایستاده‌ام و دولت من همچنان با شما خواهد ایستاد. ما اعتراضات شما را از نزدیک دنبال می کنیم. شجاعت شما الهام بخش است. — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) January 11, 2020
To the brave, long-suffering people of Iran: I've stood with you since the beginning of my Presidency, and my Administration will continue to stand with you. We are following your protests closely, and are inspired by your courage. — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) January 11, 2020
Contributing: Grace Hauck


usatoday--2020-01-12--Election 2020: Here's who qualified for the January debate in Iowa

WASHINGTON – The first Democratic primary debate of the year will also be the smallest — and the least diverse .
Tuesday ’ s debate , hosted by CNN and the Des Moines Register , is being held at Drake University in Des Moines , Iowa , at 9 p.m .
ET .
It is the last primary Democratic debate before the Iowa caucuses on Feb. 3 .
This month 's debate qualifications required candidates to have at least 225,000 individual donations .
In addition , candidates needed to get 5 % in at least four national or early-voting state @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in two early-voting state polls , which include Iowa , New Hampshire , Nevada and South Carolina .
Candidates had until the end of the day Friday to meet them Only six candidates out of the 13 Democrats running made it to the debate stage : The debate qualification thresholds have previously been criticized by some candidates who did n't make the cut , including Sen. Cory Booker of New Jersey and entrepreneur Andrew Yang .
Yang last month called on the Democratic National Committee to commission polls in an effort to increase @ @ @ @ @ @ @ debate .
The DNC declined .
Steyer looked like he would miss the stage but qualified Thursday , the day before the deadline , after two Fox News state polls , one for Nevada and the other for South Carolina , were released .
Steyer was in double digits in both states after heavily investing in advertising in both .
More : What you need to know before you vote in 2020 2020 candidates on the issues : Here 's where the Democrats running for president stand on gun control , immigration and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to winnow — Marianne Williamson ended her campaign Thursday — there were still several candidates who wo n't be on Tuesday 's debate stage .
No candidates of color made it to the debate stage , including Booker , Yang , Rep. Tulsi Gabbard of Hawaii and former Massachusetts Gov .
Deval Patrick .
Yang was the only non-white candidate who was close to making it to the stage , but still needed three polls to qualify .
He also was the only non-white candidate on the December debate stage .
Is Steyer @ @ @ @ @ @ @ debate after polls show him in top 3 in 2 states Other candidates who did n't make the debate stage include Sen. Michael Bennet , former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg and former Rep. John Delaney .
The next debate is on Feb. 7 at Saint Anselm College ’ s Sullivan Arena in New Hampshire , just four days before the New Hampshire primary .

Election 2020: Here's who qualified for the January debate in Iowa
WASHINGTON – The first Democratic primary debate of the year will also be the smallest — and the least diverse.
Tuesday’s debate, hosted by CNN and the Des Moines Register, is being held at Drake University in Des Moines, Iowa, at 9 p.m. ET. It is the last primary Democratic debate before the Iowa caucuses on Feb. 3.
This month's debate qualifications required candidates to have at least 225,000 individual donations. In addition, candidates needed to get 5% in at least four national or early-voting state polls, or at least 7% in two early-voting state polls, which include Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina. Candidates had until the end of the day Friday to meet them
Difference between caucus and primary, explained The 2020 election is nearing and with that, comes the caucuses and primary elections. But what’s the difference? Just the FAQs, USA TODAY
Only six candidates out of the 13 Democrats running made it to the debate stage:
The debate qualification thresholds have previously been criticized by some candidates who didn't make the cut, including Sen. Cory Booker of New Jersey and entrepreneur Andrew Yang. Yang last month called on the Democratic National Committee to commission polls in an effort to increase the diversity of participants in the upcoming debate. The DNC declined.
Steyer looked like he would miss the stage but qualified Thursday, the day before the deadline, after two Fox News state polls, one for Nevada and the other for South Carolina, were released. Steyer was in double digits in both states after heavily investing in advertising in both.
More: What you need to know before you vote in 2020
2020 candidates on the issues: Here's where the Democrats running for president stand on gun control, immigration and more
Who didn't make the debate stage?
Although the 2020 Democratic field continues to winnow — Marianne Williamson ended her campaign Thursday — there were still several candidates who won't be on Tuesday's debate stage.
No candidates of color made it to the debate stage, including Booker, Yang, Rep. Tulsi Gabbard of Hawaii and former Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick.
Yang was the only non-white candidate who was close to making it to the stage, but still needed three polls to qualify. He also was the only non-white candidate on the December debate stage.
Is Steyer surging?: Businessman qualifies for January debate after polls show him in top 3 in 2 states
Other candidates who didn't make the debate stage include Sen. Michael Bennet, former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg and former Rep. John Delaney.
The next debate is on Feb. 7 at Saint Anselm College’s Sullivan Arena in New Hampshire, just four days before the New Hampshire primary.


usatoday--2020-01-12--Bernie Sanders leads the Iowa Poll for the first time, just weeks before Iowa caucuses

DES MOINES , Iowa – Sen. Bernie Sanders leads the Democratic field three weeks ahead of Caucus Day in Iowa – narrowly overtaking his closest competitors , who remain locked in a tight contest just behind him .
A new Des Moines Register/CNN/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows 20 % of likely Democratic caucusgoers name Sanders as their first choice for president .
After a surge of enthusiasm that pushed Pete Buttigieg to the top of the field in November , the former South Bend , Indiana , mayor has faded , falling 9 percentage points to land behind both Sanders and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 17 % ; Buttigieg , 16 % ; and former Vice President Joe Biden , 15 % .
“ There ’ s no denying that this is a good poll for Bernie Sanders .
He leads , but it ’ s not an uncontested lead , ” said pollster J. Ann Selzer , president of Selzer & Co. , which conducted the poll .
“ He ’ s got a firmer grip on his supporters than the rest of his compatriots.
” 2020 candidates on the issues : Here 's where they stand @ @ @ @ @ @ @ care and more The poll of 701 likely Democratic caucusgoers was done Jan. 2-8 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points .
Biden , Buttigieg , Sanders and Warren have remained clustered atop the Register ’ s Iowa Poll throughout the 2020 campaign cycle , though no one has definitively pulled away from the pack .
Instead , each of the top four has now led the Iowa Poll at some point this cycle as the field continues to shift .
The percentage of those who say @ @ @ @ @ @ @ candidate to support on caucus night has risen to 40 % – up 10 percentage points from November .
Forty-five percent say they have a favorite candidate but could be persuaded to support someone else and an additional 13 % have not picked a favorite candidate .
► More : ' I am one of the undecided ' : With a month to go , many likely caucusgoers still unsure about their choice “ The caucus process is an invitation to keep an open mind , ” Selzer said , noting that the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ caucusgoers at the same point during 2016 's crowded Republican primary .
Other Democratic candidates – including those banking on a late burst of momentum – failed to gain much ground in the January poll .
Sens .
Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota and Cory Booker of New Jersey held steady , Klobuchar at 6 % and Booker at 3 % .
Entrepreneur Andrew Yang grew his support from 3 % in November to 5 % today .
Linda Ireland , a 65-year-old poll respondent from Waterloo , said Booker is her first choice @ @ @ @ @ @ @ But she also likes Buttigieg and Yang .
`` I am going to caucus for Booker , and I might move over to Amy or even Pete , '' said Ireland , a retired writer and copy editor .
The caucus process makes those second choices crucial .
After a first vote on caucus night , candidates who do n't receive at least 15 % in a precinct get dropped from contention there .
The people who initially backed a candidate who failed to earn 15 % then get to vote again for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ considering all her choices .
`` If Pete ’ s doing really well , and there ’ s no one else viable in my precinct , I would go over to him .
I would probably go down the line : Klobuchar , Yang and then Pete , '' she said .
In the new poll , a slew of other contenders fell well below the 15 % viability mark .
Rep. Tulsi Gabbard of Hawaii , who is focusing her attention on New Hampshire , and entrepreneur Tom Steyer are at 2 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Iowa but has gained enough ground in other early states to earn a place on Tuesday 's debate stage .
Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg , who is skipping the four early-voting states and compensating for his late entry into the race by purchasing tens of millions of dollars ’ worth of TV ads elsewhere , barely registers here .
His support fell a percentage point from 2 % to 1 % .
Support for former Sen. Michael Bennet of Colorado and former Rep. John Delaney of Maryland rounded to 0 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ competing in Iowa in the race 's closing weeks , Delaney – who was the first candidate to begin campaigning here in 2017 – has committed to a massive 40-stop RV tour of the state this month .
Massachusetts Gov .
Deval Patrick and author Marianne Williamson , who ended her campaign after the poll was completed , were not named as a first choice for president by a single poll respondent .
'There 's just the Bernie factor' Could Sanders gain the Iowa caucuses win that eluded him in 2016 ?
Selzer @ @ @ @ @ @ @ entirely plausible .
“ There ’ s just the Bernie factor , ” Selzer said .
“ Which is ( even ) stronger than we saw in the last cycle.
” Although this is the first time in his back-to-back races for president that the Vermont senator has led the Iowa Poll , his support this cycle has remained remarkably firm , a fact his campaign has worked to exploit .
Sanders ' supporters are more likely than those who support the other leading candidates to say their minds are made up ( @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ extremely ” enthusiastic about their candidate ( 49 % ) .
Just 32 % of Warren 's supporters describe themselves as extremely enthusiastic , and 26 % each for Biden and Buttigieg .
“ There was a thought that his support was a holdover from when he ran before and that that would evaporate , ” Selzer said .
“ It certainly has not evaporated . ''
Sanders on the issues : The 2020 candidate shares his views on student debt , Medicare for all , and the Green New Deal She @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of those who caucused for him in 2016 while also growing support among young and first-time caucusgoers .
Those are notoriously difficult groups to turn out on caucus night , she said , but Sanders has done it before and appears to be on track to do so again .
He has retained support from 44 % of those who say they caucused for him in 2016 .
Warren earns 20 % of his former supporters .
And he leads the field with those younger than 35 , earning 36 % of their @ @ @ @ @ @ @ % .
`` He ’ s someone I followed in the last primary and really liked , '' said Matthew Quick , 25 , a P.E .
teacher from Essex .
As a teacher , Quick said Sanders ' focus on education and improving teacher quality and pay stands out .
`` When he put his name in the hat in 2020 , I knew I was going to be in all the way , '' he said .
Buttigieg fades , but many still considering him Buttigieg held a commanding lead in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in November , at 25 % – 9 percentage points ahead of Warren , his closest competitor .
But in the weeks since , he has faced more criticism over his record , his moderate policy positions and his inability to win over voters of color nationally .
Buttigieg fares worst among the leading candidates in the share of supporters whose minds are made up : 40 % .
That 's compared with the 59 % of Sanders ' supporters , 48 % of Warren 's and 44 % of Biden 's .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the downward direction .
The share of those who say they view Buttigieg favorably has fallen 4 percentage points from November to 68 % today .
The share of those viewing him unfavorably has risen from 16 % to 24 % .
Pete Buttigieg on the issues : Here 's where Buttigieg stands on gun violence , immigration , health care and more '' That used to be his great claim to fame : He was very likable , and there were very few who didn ’ t like him , '' @ @ @ @ @ @ @ luster is lost in this poll . ''
Still , he retains a wide footprint of support in Iowa .
As he did in November , Buttigieg tallied the largest universe of potential supporters , with 60 % saying they are considering him in some capacity .
That includes the 16 % who name him as their first choice for president , the 15 % who say he is their second choice , and 29 % who are actively considering him .
That narrowly bests Warren , who is still the first or @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by 59 % of likely Democratic caucusgoers – falling from 66 % in November and a high of 71 % in September .
Biden fell 3 percentage points in this footprint measure , to 55 % , and Sanders ticked up 1 point to tie him .
Klobuchar and Yang follow with 41 % and 40 % , respectively .
Selzer said the numbers seem to indicate a little less room for Klobuchar and Yang to grow .
“ They seem to be settled on the number they ’ re going to get @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this big of a field and with four strong top contenders , what sort of showing in the caucus would be good enough for Andrew Yang or for Amy Klobuchar to move forward ?
” Seventy-eight percent of men under age 45 say they view Yang favorably , as do 73 % of white men with a college degree .
Klobuchar gets more favorable ratings from older likely Democratic caucusgoers , including 69 % of women age 55 and older .
Conversely , just 32 % of caucusgoers younger than 35 say they @ @ @ @ @ @ @ typically eschews the idea of political “ lanes , ” arguing that caucusgoers don ’ t approach their decisions that way .
“ But you look at these data and you kind of go , ‘ Well , these look like lanes , ’ ” she said .
Sanders and Warren are battling for progressive caucusgoers , and Biden and Buttigieg are attracting a more moderate crowd .
Higher proportions of Biden and Buttigieg supporters – 75 % and 72 % , respectively – say choosing a candidate with the superior chance of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to them , personally .
It ’ s 54 % among Sanders supporters and 53 % among Warren supporters .
Seventy-eight percent of Biden 's supporters and 84 % of Buttigieg 's supporters say that a candidate ’ s ability to unite the country is extremely important in their choice .
That factor is extremely important for 65 % of Sanders ' supporters and 58 % of Warren 's .
And 64 % of Biden supporters and 61 % of Buttigieg supporters say having a candidate who can bring Republicans and independents on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ % of Sanders ' supporters and 46 % of Warren 's supporters feel that way .
Further , a plurality of Biden 's supporters , 29 % , say Buttigieg is their second choice ; a plurality of Sanders ' supporters , 44 % , say Warren is theirs ; and a plurality of Warren 's supporters , 31 % , say Sanders is their second choice .
Buttigieg 's supporters are split on their second choices , with 20 % saying Warren and 18 % saying Biden .
“ This poll really @ @ @ @ @ @ @ connection , ” Selzer said .
As the United States faces heightened tensions in the Middle East and with Iran , supporters of Biden and Buttigieg express more confidence in their ability to lead the military than the supporters of Sanders or Warren place in their candidates .
Among his own supporters , 86 % say Biden 's ability to lead the U.S. military is more of a strength than a weakness .
Just 1 % say it 's more of a weakness for the former vice president .
On the campaign trail @ @ @ @ @ @ @ acumen , arguing he 's ready to take over the role of commander in chief on Day One .
Buttigieg , who is the only candidate polling in the top four to have served active duty in the military , also fares well : 87 % of his backers say his ability to lead the military is a strength , and just 7 % call it a weakness .
Foreign policy : Here 's where the 2020 candidates stand on tensions with Iran and North Korea '' I think it ’ s good @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the context of that mindset , '' said poll respondent Christina Powers , a 36-year-old stay-at-home mom from Dexter who names Buttigieg as her first choice for president .
`` You definitely have to be able to build bridges and understand the way the military thinks .
… And I think , also , because we ’ ve been at war for half of his life , he probably understands it ’ s something that is not something to crave – that it ’ s not a good thing . ''
Even among @ @ @ @ @ @ @ struggle on this measure : 61 % of Sanders ' supporters say his ability to lead the military is a strength , and 23 % call it a weakness ; for Warren , 58 % of supporters say her ability to lead the military is a strength , and 29 % call it a weakness .
Sanders ' supporters are also concerned about his health .
The 78-year-old senator had a heart attack earlier this year , and although he has n't slowed his campaign schedule , 49 % of his supporters say @ @ @ @ @ @ @ while 37 % call it a strength .
Quick , the poll respondent and Sanders supporter , said he believes Sanders ' age comes with experience .
But he said he worries Trump could weaponize Sanders ' age and physical health .
`` I feel like it ’ s something the Republicans could try to use against him , '' Quick said .
Although Biden is nearly as old , at 77 , far fewer of his supporters – just 28 % – say his health is a weakness .
A majority , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ strength .
Warren is the other septuagenarian among the top-tier candidates .
The 70-year-old is often seen running onto stages and through events , and 86 % of her supporters say her physical health is a strength .
Buttigieg , who would be the youngest president ever elected , leads on this measure : 95 % of his supporters say his physical health is an asset , not a weakness .
► MORE ON THIS POLL : Read our methodology The Iowa Poll , conducted Jan. 2-8 , 2020 , for the Des @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Selzer & Co. of Des Moines , is based on telephone interviews with 3,131 registered voters in Iowa , including 701 who say they will definitely or probably attend the 2020 Democratic caucuses .
Interviewers with Quantel Research contacted randomly selected active voters from the Iowa secretary of state ’ s voter registration list by telephone .
The sample was supplemented with additional phone number lookups .
Interviews were administered in English .
Responses for all registered voters were adjusted by age and congressional district to reflect their proportions among active voters in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sample of 701 voters likely to attend the 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points .
Questions based on the sample of 3,131 registered voters have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 1.8 percentage points .
This means that if this survey were repeated using the same questions and the same methodology , 19 times out of 20 , the findings would not vary from the true population value by more than plus or minus 3.7 or 1.8 percentage points @ @ @ @ @ @ @ samples of respondents — such as by gender or age — have a larger margin of error .
Republishing the copyright Iowa Poll without credit to the Des Moines Register , CNN , and Mediacom is prohibited .
Brianne Pfannenstiel is the chief politics reporter for the Register .
Reach her at bpfann @ dmreg.com or 515-284-8244 .
Follow her on Twitter at @ brianneDMR .
Support reporters who follow your government by becoming a subscriber .
Sign up at DesMoinesRegister.com/Deal .

Brianne Pfannenstiel, Des Moines Register

Bernie Sanders leads the Iowa Poll for the first time, just weeks before Iowa caucuses
Show Caption Hide Caption Iowa caucus: Just how much influence does it have on the primary? The Iowa caucus is sure to be competitive this year. But what makes caucuses different from primaries? Just the FAQs
© Copyright 2020, Des Moines Register and Tribune Co.
DES MOINES, Iowa – Sen. Bernie Sanders leads the Democratic field three weeks ahead of Caucus Day in Iowa – narrowly overtaking his closest competitors, who remain locked in a tight contest just behind him.
A new Des Moines Register/CNN/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows 20% of likely Democratic caucusgoers name Sanders as their first choice for president.
After a surge of enthusiasm that pushed Pete Buttigieg to the top of the field in November, the former South Bend, Indiana, mayor has faded, falling 9 percentage points to land behind both Sanders and Sen. Elizabeth Warren. Warren is at 17%; Buttigieg, 16%; and former Vice President Joe Biden, 15%.
“There’s no denying that this is a good poll for Bernie Sanders. He leads, but it’s not an uncontested lead,” said pollster J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co., which conducted the poll. “He’s got a firmer grip on his supporters than the rest of his compatriots.”
2020 candidates on the issues: Here's where they stand on gun violence, immigration, health care and more
The poll of 701 likely Democratic caucusgoers was done Jan. 2-8 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.
Biden, Buttigieg, Sanders and Warren have remained clustered atop the Register’s Iowa Poll throughout the 2020 campaign cycle, though no one has definitively pulled away from the pack. Instead, each of the top four has now led the Iowa Poll at some point this cycle as the field continues to shift.
The percentage of those who say their mind is made up about which candidate to support on caucus night has risen to 40% – up 10 percentage points from November. Forty-five percent say they have a favorite candidate but could be persuaded to support someone else and an additional 13% have not picked a favorite candidate.
► More: 'I am one of the undecided': With a month to go, many likely caucusgoers still unsure about their choice
“The caucus process is an invitation to keep an open mind,” Selzer said, noting that the Iowa Poll produced similar numbers of undecided caucusgoers at the same point during 2016's crowded Republican primary.
Other Democratic candidates – including those banking on a late burst of momentum – failed to gain much ground in the January poll. Sens. Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota and Cory Booker of New Jersey held steady, Klobuchar at 6% and Booker at 3%. Entrepreneur Andrew Yang grew his support from 3% in November to 5% today.
Linda Ireland, a 65-year-old poll respondent from Waterloo, said Booker is her first choice, and Klobuchar is her second. But she also likes Buttigieg and Yang.
"I am going to caucus for Booker, and I might move over to Amy or even Pete," said Ireland, a retired writer and copy editor.
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The caucus process makes those second choices crucial. After a first vote on caucus night, candidates who don't receive at least 15% in a precinct get dropped from contention there. The people who initially backed a candidate who failed to earn 15% then get to vote again for a final time. So Ireland is considering all her choices.
"If Pete’s doing really well, and there’s no one else viable in my precinct, I would go over to him. I would probably go down the line: Klobuchar, Yang and then Pete," she said.
In the new poll, a slew of other contenders fell well below the 15% viability mark.
Rep. Tulsi Gabbard of Hawaii, who is focusing her attention on New Hampshire, and entrepreneur Tom Steyer are at 2%. Steyer is holding steady in Iowa but has gained enough ground in other early states to earn a place on Tuesday's debate stage.
Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, who is skipping the four early-voting states and compensating for his late entry into the race by purchasing tens of millions of dollars’ worth of TV ads elsewhere, barely registers here. His support fell a percentage point from 2% to 1%.
Support for former Sen. Michael Bennet of Colorado and former Rep. John Delaney of Maryland rounded to 0%. Though Bennet has largely foregone competing in Iowa in the race's closing weeks, Delaney – who was the first candidate to begin campaigning here in 2017 – has committed to a massive 40-stop RV tour of the state this month.
Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick and author Marianne Williamson, who ended her campaign after the poll was completed, were not named as a first choice for president by a single poll respondent.
Difference between caucus and primary, explained The 2020 election is nearing and with that, comes the caucuses and primary elections. But what’s the difference? Just the FAQs, USA TODAY
'There's just the Bernie factor'
Could Sanders gain the Iowa caucuses win that eluded him in 2016? Selzer said the data suggest it’s entirely plausible.
“There’s just the Bernie factor,” Selzer said. “Which is (even) stronger than we saw in the last cycle.”
Although this is the first time in his back-to-back races for president that the Vermont senator has led the Iowa Poll, his support this cycle has remained remarkably firm, a fact his campaign has worked to exploit.
Sanders' supporters are more likely than those who support the other leading candidates to say their minds are made up (59%), and they are “extremely” enthusiastic about their candidate (49%). Just 32% of Warren's supporters describe themselves as extremely enthusiastic, and 26% each for Biden and Buttigieg.
“There was a thought that his support was a holdover from when he ran before and that that would evaporate,” Selzer said. “It certainly has not evaporated."
Sanders on the issues: The 2020 candidate shares his views on student debt, Medicare for all, and the Green New Deal
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She said Sanders is holding on to many of those who caucused for him in 2016 while also growing support among young and first-time caucusgoers. Those are notoriously difficult groups to turn out on caucus night, she said, but Sanders has done it before and appears to be on track to do so again.
He has retained support from 44% of those who say they caucused for him in 2016. Warren earns 20% of his former supporters.
And he leads the field with those younger than 35, earning 36% of their support; Warren follows him at 20%.
"He’s someone I followed in the last primary and really liked," said Matthew Quick, 25, a P.E. teacher from Essex. As a teacher, Quick said Sanders' focus on education and improving teacher quality and pay stands out.
"When he put his name in the hat in 2020, I knew I was going to be in all the way," he said.
Buttigieg fades, but many still considering him
Buttigieg held a commanding lead in the Register's last Iowa Poll, in November, at 25% – 9 percentage points ahead of Warren, his closest competitor. But in the weeks since, he has faced more criticism over his record, his moderate policy positions and his inability to win over voters of color nationally.
Buttigieg fares worst among the leading candidates in the share of supporters whose minds are made up: 40%. That's compared with the 59% of Sanders' supporters, 48% of Warren's and 44% of Biden's.
Buttigieg's favorability ratings also have gone in the downward direction. The share of those who say they view Buttigieg favorably has fallen 4 percentage points from November to 68% today. The share of those viewing him unfavorably has risen from 16% to 24%.
Pete Buttigieg on the issues: Here's where Buttigieg stands on gun violence, immigration, health care and more
"That used to be his great claim to fame: He was very likable, and there were very few who didn’t like him," Selzer said. "Some of that luster is lost in this poll."
Still, he retains a wide footprint of support in Iowa. As he did in November, Buttigieg tallied the largest universe of potential supporters, with 60% saying they are considering him in some capacity. That includes the 16% who name him as their first choice for president, the 15% who say he is their second choice, and 29% who are actively considering him.
That narrowly bests Warren, who is still the first or second choice or is being actively considered by 59% of likely Democratic caucusgoers – falling from 66% in November and a high of 71% in September.
Biden fell 3 percentage points in this footprint measure, to 55%, and Sanders ticked up 1 point to tie him. Klobuchar and Yang follow with 41% and 40%, respectively.
Selzer said the numbers seem to indicate a little less room for Klobuchar and Yang to grow.
“They seem to be settled on the number they’re going to get,” she said. “With this big of a field and with four strong top contenders, what sort of showing in the caucus would be good enough for Andrew Yang or for Amy Klobuchar to move forward?”
Seventy-eight percent of men under age 45 say they view Yang favorably, as do 73% of white men with a college degree.
Klobuchar gets more favorable ratings from older likely Democratic caucusgoers, including 69% of women age 55 and older. Conversely, just 32% of caucusgoers younger than 35 say they view Klobuchar favorably.
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Data show progressive, moderate 'lanes'
Selzer said she typically eschews the idea of political “lanes,” arguing that caucusgoers don’t approach their decisions that way.
“But you look at these data and you kind of go, ‘Well, these look like lanes,’ ” she said.
Sanders and Warren are battling for progressive caucusgoers, and Biden and Buttigieg are attracting a more moderate crowd.
Higher proportions of Biden and Buttigieg supporters – 75% and 72%, respectively – say choosing a candidate with the superior chance of defeating President Donald Trump is extremely important to them, personally. It’s 54% among Sanders supporters and 53% among Warren supporters.
Seventy-eight percent of Biden's supporters and 84% of Buttigieg's supporters say that a candidate’s ability to unite the country is extremely important in their choice. That factor is extremely important for 65% of Sanders' supporters and 58% of Warren's.
And 64% of Biden supporters and 61% of Buttigieg supporters say having a candidate who can bring Republicans and independents on board is extremely important. Just 38% of Sanders' supporters and 46% of Warren's supporters feel that way.
Further, a plurality of Biden's supporters, 29%, say Buttigieg is their second choice; a plurality of Sanders' supporters, 44%, say Warren is theirs; and a plurality of Warren's supporters, 31%, say Sanders is their second choice. Buttigieg's supporters are split on their second choices, with 20% saying Warren and 18% saying Biden.
“This poll really displays the Sanders-Warren connection and the Biden-Buttigieg connection,” Selzer said.
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What are candidates' strengths, weaknesses?
As the United States faces heightened tensions in the Middle East and with Iran, supporters of Biden and Buttigieg express more confidence in their ability to lead the military than the supporters of Sanders or Warren place in their candidates.
Among his own supporters, 86% say Biden's ability to lead the U.S. military is more of a strength than a weakness. Just 1% say it's more of a weakness for the former vice president. On the campaign trail, Biden regularly touts his foreign policy acumen, arguing he's ready to take over the role of commander in chief on Day One.
Buttigieg, who is the only candidate polling in the top four to have served active duty in the military, also fares well: 87% of his backers say his ability to lead the military is a strength, and just 7% call it a weakness.
Foreign policy: Here's where the 2020 candidates stand on tensions with Iran and North Korea
"I think it’s good to have somebody who at least has the context of that mindset," said poll respondent Christina Powers, a 36-year-old stay-at-home mom from Dexter who names Buttigieg as her first choice for president. "You definitely have to be able to build bridges and understand the way the military thinks. … And I think, also, because we’ve been at war for half of his life, he probably understands it’s something that is not something to crave – that it’s not a good thing."
Even among their own supporters, Sanders and Warren struggle on this measure: 61% of Sanders' supporters say his ability to lead the military is a strength, and 23% call it a weakness; for Warren, 58% of supporters say her ability to lead the military is a strength, and 29% call it a weakness.
Sanders' supporters are also concerned about his health.
The 78-year-old senator had a heart attack earlier this year, and although he hasn't slowed his campaign schedule, 49% of his supporters say his physical health is a weakness, while 37% call it a strength.
Quick, the poll respondent and Sanders supporter, said he believes Sanders' age comes with experience. But he said he worries Trump could weaponize Sanders' age and physical health.
"I feel like it’s something the Republicans could try to use against him," Quick said.
Although Biden is nearly as old, at 77, far fewer of his supporters – just 28% – say his health is a weakness. A majority, 55%, say it's a strength.
Warren is the other septuagenarian among the top-tier candidates. The 70-year-old is often seen running onto stages and through events, and 86% of her supporters say her physical health is a strength.
Buttigieg, who would be the youngest president ever elected, leads on this measure: 95% of his supporters say his physical health is an asset, not a weakness.
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► MORE ON THIS POLL: Read our methodology
About this poll
The Iowa Poll, conducted Jan. 2-8, 2020, for the Des Moines Register, CNN and Mediacom by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, is based on telephone interviews with 3,131 registered voters in Iowa, including 701 who say they will definitely or probably attend the 2020 Democratic caucuses.
Interviewers with Quantel Research contacted randomly selected active voters from the Iowa secretary of state’s voter registration list by telephone. The sample was supplemented with additional phone number lookups. Interviews were administered in English. Responses for all registered voters were adjusted by age and congressional district to reflect their proportions among active voters in the list.
Questions based on the sample of 701 voters likely to attend the 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points. Questions based on the sample of 3,131 registered voters have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 1.8 percentage points. This means that if this survey were repeated using the same questions and the same methodology, 19 times out of 20, the findings would not vary from the true population value by more than plus or minus 3.7 or 1.8 percentage points, respectively. Results based on smaller samples of respondents — such as by gender or age — have a larger margin of error.
Republishing the copyright Iowa Poll without credit to the Des Moines Register, CNN, and Mediacom is prohibited.
Brianne Pfannenstiel is the chief politics reporter for the Register. Reach her at bpfann@dmreg.com or 515-284-8244. Follow her on Twitter at @brianneDMR.
Support reporters who follow your government by becoming a subscriber. Sign up at DesMoinesRegister.com/Deal.


usatoday--2020-01-13--Supreme Court's war on prosecutors meets 'Bridgegate'

WASHINGTON – The Supreme Court was deep into oral argument back in 2014 about a Florida fisherman 's federal conviction for destroying evidence – in his case , 72 undersized grouper .
`` What kind of a mad prosecutor would try to send this guy up for 20 years ? ''
Associate Justice Antonin Scalia railed .
`` You make him sound like a mob boss or something , '' Chief Justice John Roberts chastised the Justice Department 's lawyer .
The case – which went well for the fisherman , if not the fish – was one of many @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has admonished prosecutors for stretching laws to win convictions .
Others rescued by the justices ranged from a jilted wife charged with assault under an international chemical weapons treaty to a legal immigrant deported for hiding four prescription tablets in a sock .
On Tuesday , the high court will shed some light on whether its forgiveness extends to shutting down access lanes to the George Washington Bridge – the busiest bridge in the world – for political retribution .
The case pits two mid-level public officials with ties to former New Jersey @ @ @ @ @ @ @ charged them with fraud and won 18-month prison sentences for a political prank that ran amok .
Upset by a Democratic mayor 's refusal to endorse Republican Christie 's re-election in 2013 , the two associates created gridlock for several days in Fort Lee , N.J. As it turned out , they also helped turn a popular governor with presidential ambitions into a joke on late-night television , helping to tank his political future .
The scandal , now going on seven years , became known as Bridgegate .
The Supreme Court 's @ @ @ @ @ @ @ court convictions is a positive sign for Christie aides Bridget Kelly and William Baroni , though it 's too soon to tell if they 'll get off the hook like the Florida fish captain .
What 's clearer is the court 's impatience with federal and state prosecutors , even in cases of political corruption .
Four years ago , the court vacated the conviction of former Virginia governor Bob McDonnell , who had been sentenced to two years in prison for accepting luxury gifts and loans from a wealthy businessman in exchange @ @ @ @ @ @ @ justices ruled unanimously that those acts were commonplace actions taken on behalf of constituents .
The ruling made it harder for prosecutors to use federal fraud statutes against public officials by characterizing what the justices called common favors as crimes .
That could work against the Trump administration in the New Jersey case .
“ A good number of the recent cases are examples of where prosecutors stretched the law , '' says Ellen Podgor , a white-collar crime research professor at Stetson University College of Law .
The Supreme Court began pushing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , reversing the conviction of Kentucky officials who had skimmed money paid by the state to insurance companies .
The court reasoned that fraud statutes do not guarantee officials will `` perform their duties honestly . ''
A generation later , it added that `` honest services '' fraud must include bribery or kickbacks .
More recently , the justices have sided frequently with small-time criminal defendants swept up by large-scale prosecutions : In 2014 , the court ruled unanimously that the federal government had no business using an international chemical weapons treaty @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a `` two-bit local assault '' against her husband 's lover .
In 2015 , it chastised federal prosecutors for deporting a Tunisian man on drug paraphernalia charges based on four Adderall tablets hidden in a sock .
In 2017 , the justices ruled unanimously that a Serbian immigrant 's lie about her husband 's military record was not reason to strip away her citizenship .
Last year , the court again ruled unanimously that states , along with the federal government , can not impose excessive fines as criminal penalties – such @ @ @ @ @ @ @ dealer 's $ 42,000 Land Rover .
`` The protection against excessive fines guards against abuses of government ’ s punitive or criminal law-enforcement authority , '' Associate Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg wrote .
Perhaps sensing a sympathetic audience , lawyers for Kelly have raised another recent Supreme Court decision : last year 's ruling against the Trump administration 's effort to include a citizenship question on the 2020 census .
Noting that Chief Justice John Roberts said Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross ' reason for adding the question `` seems to have been @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Ross could have been imprisoned for fraud under the reasoning used to convict their client .
`` That astoundingly expansive theory of criminal fraud can not be correct , '' they wrote .
`` It would undo , in one fell swoop , three decades of this court ’ s precedents rejecting attempts to enforce 'honest government ' through vague federal criminal statutes . ''
But there 's another side to the Bridgegate saga .
The Justice Department says Kelly and Baroni did n't just conceal political motives .
Rather , it says @ @ @ @ @ @ @ study and used Port Authority of New York and New Jersey resources to manufacture what Kelly warned would be `` some traffic problems in Fort Lee . ''
Unlike some of the small fish the Supreme Court saved from overzealous prosecutors , such as Florida fish captain John Yates , public officials `` are in positions of power , '' says Jennifer Ahearn , policy director at Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington , an anti-corruption group .
`` This is really how our system works , '' Ahearn says .
`` @ @ @ @ @ @ @ federal criminal justice system writ large .
You don ’ t have courts stepping in and saying , 'This person isn ’ t worthy of being prosecuted . '
''

Supreme Court's war on prosecutors meets 'Bridgegate'
Show Caption Hide Caption Former Christie aides get prison for bridge plot Two former aides to Gov. Chris Christie were sentenced to prison Wednesday for their role in a political revenge plot involving traffic jams at the country's busiest bridge, a scandal that continues to hang over his final year in office. (March 29) AP
WASHINGTON – The Supreme Court was deep into oral argument back in 2014 about a Florida fisherman's federal conviction for destroying evidence – in his case, 72 undersized grouper.
"What kind of a mad prosecutor would try to send this guy up for 20 years?" Associate Justice Antonin Scalia railed.
"You make him sound like a mob boss or something," Chief Justice John Roberts chastised the Justice Department's lawyer.
The case – which went well for the fisherman, if not the fish – was one of many recent examples in which the high court has admonished prosecutors for stretching laws to win convictions. Others rescued by the justices ranged from a jilted wife charged with assault under an international chemical weapons treaty to a legal immigrant deported for hiding four prescription tablets in a sock.
Since you're reading this story, you might also like to hear about tonight's Democratic presidential debate. Click 'play' above to listen.
On Tuesday, the high court will shed some light on whether its forgiveness extends to shutting down access lanes to the George Washington Bridge – the busiest bridge in the world – for political retribution.
The case pits two mid-level public officials with ties to former New Jersey governor Chris Christie against federal prosecutors who charged them with fraud and won 18-month prison sentences for a political prank that ran amok.
Upset by a Democratic mayor's refusal to endorse Republican Christie's re-election in 2013, the two associates created gridlock for several days in Fort Lee, N.J. As it turned out, they also helped turn a popular governor with presidential ambitions into a joke on late-night television, helping to tank his political future.
The scandal, now going on seven years, became known as Bridgegate. The Supreme Court's willingness to hear it following two lower court convictions is a positive sign for Christie aides Bridget Kelly and William Baroni, though it's too soon to tell if they'll get off the hook like the Florida fish captain.
What's clearer is the court's impatience with federal and state prosecutors, even in cases of political corruption.
Four years ago, the court vacated the conviction of former Virginia governor Bob McDonnell, who had been sentenced to two years in prison for accepting luxury gifts and loans from a wealthy businessman in exchange for "official acts." The justices ruled unanimously that those acts were commonplace actions taken on behalf of constituents.
The ruling made it harder for prosecutors to use federal fraud statutes against public officials by characterizing what the justices called common favors as crimes. That could work against the Trump administration in the New Jersey case.
“A good number of the recent cases are examples of where prosecutors stretched the law," says Ellen Podgor, a white-collar crime research professor at Stetson University College of Law.
Siding with defendants
The Supreme Court began pushing back against public corruption prosecutions in 1987, reversing the conviction of Kentucky officials who had skimmed money paid by the state to insurance companies. The court reasoned that fraud statutes do not guarantee officials will "perform their duties honestly." A generation later, it added that "honest services" fraud must include bribery or kickbacks.
More recently, the justices have sided frequently with small-time criminal defendants swept up by large-scale prosecutions:
In 2014, the court ruled unanimously that the federal government had no business using an international chemical weapons treaty to prosecute a jilted wife who committed a "two-bit local assault" against her husband's lover.
In 2015, it chastised federal prosecutors for deporting a Tunisian man on drug paraphernalia charges based on four Adderall tablets hidden in a sock.
In 2017, the justices ruled unanimously that a Serbian immigrant's lie about her husband's military record was not reason to strip away her citizenship.
Last year, the court again ruled unanimously that states, along with the federal government, cannot impose excessive fines as criminal penalties – such as the seizure of a small-time drug dealer's $42,000 Land Rover.
"The protection against excessive fines guards against abuses of government’s punitive or criminal law-enforcement authority," Associate Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg wrote.
'Honest government'
Perhaps sensing a sympathetic audience, lawyers for Kelly have raised another recent Supreme Court decision: last year's ruling against the Trump administration's effort to include a citizenship question on the 2020 census.
Noting that Chief Justice John Roberts said Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross' reason for adding the question "seems to have been contrived," Kelly's lawyers said Ross could have been imprisoned for fraud under the reasoning used to convict their client.
"That astoundingly expansive theory of criminal fraud cannot be correct," they wrote. "It would undo, in one fell swoop, three decades of this court’s precedents rejecting attempts to enforce 'honest government' through vague federal criminal statutes."
But there's another side to the Bridgegate saga. The Justice Department says Kelly and Baroni didn't just conceal political motives. Rather, it says they blatently made up a non-existent traffic study and used Port Authority of New York and New Jersey resources to manufacture what Kelly warned would be "some traffic problems in Fort Lee."
Unlike some of the small fish the Supreme Court saved from overzealous prosecutors, such as Florida fish captain John Yates, public officials "are in positions of power," says Jennifer Ahearn, policy director at Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington, an anti-corruption group.
"This is really how our system works," Ahearn says. "We give discretion to prosecutors in the federal criminal justice system writ large. You don’t have courts stepping in and saying, 'This person isn’t worthy of being prosecuted.'"