cnbc--2020-01-16--Ukraine launches probes into possible surveillance of ex-US ambassador Yovanovitch and suspected hac

Ukraine launches probes into possible surveillance of ex-US ambassador Yovanovitch and suspected hack of Burisma

Marie Yovanovitch , former U.S .
Ambassador to Ukraine , arrives back from a break in the House Intelligence Committee hearing on the impeachment inquiry of President Trump in Longworth Building on Friday , November 15 , 2019 .
Ukraine authorities announced investigations Thursday into whether former U.S. ambassador Marie Yovanovitch was illegally monitored by private U.S. citizens , as well as the reported hacking of a Ukrainian natural gas company by Russian operatives .
Both probes involve entities that are at the center of President Donald Trump 's impeachment , which is about to head to trial in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of Yovanovitch , who was ousted by Trump in May amid what she called a `` smear campaign '' orchestrated by the president 's lawyer Rudy Giuliani , stems from a trove of new documentary evidence released by House Democrats as part of the impeachment process , the Ukraine Ministry of Internal Affairs said .
Among the documents were messages from a Republican congressional candidate in Connecticut named Robert Hyde , who suggested that he was monitoring Yovanovitch in Ukraine .
That evidence was provided to the House by Lev Parnas , who @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Ukraine to announce investigations involving former Vice President Joe Biden and his son Hunter .
Trump himself had asked Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy to `` look into '' the Bidens in a July 25 phone call that eventually helped launch the impeachment probe .
Hunter Biden had served on the board of Ukraine natural gas company Burisma Holdings while his father was vice president .
Trump and his allies have accused Joe Biden , who had pushed for Ukraine to fire a prosecutor there , of abusing his office to protect his son @ @ @ @ @ @ @ vice presidency .
Those allegations are unsubstantiated and the Bidens have not been credibly accused of wrongdoing .
`` Ukraine 's position is not to interfere in the domestic affairs of the United States of America , '' the Internal Affairs Ministry said in a statement Thursday .
`` However , the published references cited by the Washington Post contain a possible violation of the law of Ukraine and the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations , which protects the rights of a diplomat on the territory of the foreign country . ''
`` @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on the territory of its own state , '' the statement added .
Minutes later , the ministry announced a probe into a recent hack on `` several '' Ukrainian companies , including Burisma , in which employees ' personal data and executives ' emails were stolen .
`` It is noted that the hacker attack is probably committed by the Russian special services , '' the ministry said .
The statement also said Ukraine 's National Police has reached out to the FBI for help acquiring information , and that it is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ international investigation team .
Parnas , a Ukraine-born businessman living in Florida , was arrested at an airport in October with a one-way ticket out of the U.S. , and charged with campaign-finance violations in U.S. court in Manhattan .
His associate , Igor Fruman , was also arrested .
Both have pleaded not guilty .
Parnas has previously said he was willing to testify as part of Trump 's impeachment saga in Congress .
House Democrats voted Dec. 18 to impeach Trump on articles of abuse of power and obstruction of Congress @ @ @ @ @ @ @ efforts to have Ukraine announce a probe into the Bidens , as well as a debunked conspiracy theory about the 2016 election .
The articles of impeachment were formally transmitted to the Senate on Wednesday , after being withheld for weeks by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi , who was trying to pressure Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell to make concessions about the trial rules .
McConnell says that a trial on whether to convict Trump of the charges and remove him from office — an unlikely prospect in the GOP-held chamber — is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ But Tuesday evening , the Democratic chairs of multiple House committees shared the new evidence from Parnas , which includes copies of handwritten letters , phone records and other back-channel communications with multiple figures .
Hyde 's messages to Parnas are included in the tranche of files .
`` Wow .
Ca n't believe Trumo [ sic ] has n't fired this b -- -- .
I 'll get right in that , '' Hyde said of Yovanovitch in a March 23 text to Parnas , the documents show .
`` She [ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , '' Hyde said .
He goes on to describe Yovanovitch 's location , her communications and her security level .
Hyde , in a Sinclair Media interview that aired Wednesday , denied having eyes on Yovanovitch , claiming , `` I thought we were playing . ''
`` It 's kind of unfortunate the left had to get their panties in a bunch , '' Hyde said .
Connecticut Republican Party Chairman J.R. Romano urged Hyde to end his congressional campaign , saying his antics are not helping Trump .
`` His @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to raise money and falsely label all Republicans with his antics , '' Romano tweeted .

Marie Yovanovitch, former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine, arrives back from a break in the House Intelligence Committee hearing on the impeachment inquiry of President Trump in Longworth Building on Friday, November 15, 2019.
Ukraine authorities announced investigations Thursday into whether former U.S. ambassador Marie Yovanovitch was illegally monitored by private U.S. citizens, as well as the reported hacking of a Ukrainian natural gas company by Russian operatives.
Both probes involve entities that are at the center of President Donald Trump's impeachment, which is about to head to trial in the Senate.
The investigation into possible surveillance of Yovanovitch, who was ousted by Trump in May amid what she called a "smear campaign" orchestrated by the president's lawyer Rudy Giuliani, stems from a trove of new documentary evidence released by House Democrats as part of the impeachment process, the Ukraine Ministry of Internal Affairs said.
Among the documents were messages from a Republican congressional candidate in Connecticut named Robert Hyde, who suggested that he was monitoring Yovanovitch in Ukraine.
That evidence was provided to the House by Lev Parnas, who was assisting Giuliani in efforts to get Ukraine to announce investigations involving former Vice President Joe Biden and his son Hunter. Trump himself had asked Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy to "look into" the Bidens in a July 25 phone call that eventually helped launch the impeachment probe.
Hunter Biden had served on the board of Ukraine natural gas company Burisma Holdings while his father was vice president. Trump and his allies have accused Joe Biden, who had pushed for Ukraine to fire a prosecutor there, of abusing his office to protect his son or have his family profit off the vice presidency. Those allegations are unsubstantiated and the Bidens have not been credibly accused of wrongdoing.
"Ukraine's position is not to interfere in the domestic affairs of the United States of America," the Internal Affairs Ministry said in a statement Thursday. "However, the published references cited by the Washington Post contain a possible violation of the law of Ukraine and the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations, which protects the rights of a diplomat on the territory of the foreign country."
"Ukraine cannot ignore such illegal activities on the territory of its own state," the statement added.
Minutes later, the ministry announced a probe into a recent hack on "several" Ukrainian companies, including Burisma, in which employees' personal data and executives' emails were stolen.
"It is noted that the hacker attack is probably committed by the Russian special services," the ministry said.
The statement also said Ukraine's National Police has reached out to the FBI for help acquiring information, and that it is inviting the FBI to join a joint international investigation team.
Parnas, a Ukraine-born businessman living in Florida, was arrested at an airport in October with a one-way ticket out of the U.S., and charged with campaign-finance violations in U.S. court in Manhattan. His associate, Igor Fruman, was also arrested. Both have pleaded not guilty.
Parnas has previously said he was willing to testify as part of Trump's impeachment saga in Congress.
House Democrats voted Dec. 18 to impeach Trump on articles of abuse of power and obstruction of Congress — both of which stem from his efforts to have Ukraine announce a probe into the Bidens, as well as a debunked conspiracy theory about the 2016 election.
The articles of impeachment were formally transmitted to the Senate on Wednesday, after being withheld for weeks by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who was trying to pressure Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell to make concessions about the trial rules. McConnell says that a trial on whether to convict Trump of the charges and remove him from office — an unlikely prospect in the GOP-held chamber — is expected to begin early next week.
But Tuesday evening, the Democratic chairs of multiple House committees shared the new evidence from Parnas, which includes copies of handwritten letters, phone records and other back-channel communications with multiple figures.
Hyde's messages to Parnas are included in the tranche of files.
"Wow. Can't believe Trumo [sic] hasn't fired this b----. I'll get right in that," Hyde said of Yovanovitch in a March 23 text to Parnas, the documents show.
"She [sic] under heavy protection outside Kiev," Hyde said. He goes on to describe Yovanovitch's location, her communications and her security level.
Hyde, in a Sinclair Media interview that aired Wednesday, denied having eyes on Yovanovitch, claiming, "I thought we were playing."
"It's kind of unfortunate the left had to get their panties in a bunch," Hyde said.
Connecticut Republican Party Chairman J.R. Romano urged Hyde to end his congressional campaign, saying his antics are not helping Trump.
"His campaign is a distraction for the Democrats to raise money and falsely label all Republicans with his antics," Romano tweeted.
Romano TWEET


cnbc--2020-01-16--'I think you called me a liar on national TV,' Warren told Sanders after debate

Democratic 2020 U.S. presidential candidates ( L-R ) Senator Elizabeth Warren ( D-MA ) speaks with Senator Bernie Sanders ( I-VT ) as billionaire activist Tom Steyer listens after the seventh Democratic 2020 presidential debate at Drake University in Des Moines , Iowa , January 14 , 2020 .
Sen. Elizabeth Warren told Sen. Bernie Sanders , her fellow presidential candidate , after the recent Democratic debate that `` I think you called me a liar on national TV , '' according to audio broadcast by CNN on Wednesday night .
The moment occurred following reports that Sanders , I-Vt. @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , that he did n't think a woman could win a presidential election .
Warren said it happened , and Sanders denied making the remark , including on the debate stage .
Warren told Sanders , `` I think you called me a liar on national TV , '' and Sanders responded , `` What ? ''
according to the audio played by CNN .
Warren repeated that he 'd called her a liar .
`` Let 's not do it right now , '' Sanders replied .
`` You want to have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ discussion , '' according to the audio .
Warren says , `` Any time , '' and Sanders says : `` You called me a liar .
You told me — all right , let 's not do it now . ''
During the debate , Sanders denied having told Warren at a private meeting in 2018 that a woman could n't win .
`` Anybody knows me knows that it 's incomprehensible that I would think that a woman could not be president of the United States , '' Sanders said .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ saying that you never told Senator Warren that a woman could not win the election ? ''
Sanders replied : `` That is correct . ''
Warren was then asked , `` What did you think when Senator Sanders told you a woman could not win the election ? ''
`` I disagreed , '' Warren replied .
Then she said , `` Bernie is my friend , and I am not here to try to fight with Bernie .
`` But look , this question about whether or not a woman can @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it 's time for us to attack it head on , '' she said .
The moment was one of the more talked-about exchanges from Tuesday night 's debate , which was co-hosted by CNN and the Des Moines Register .

Democratic 2020 U.S. presidential candidates (L-R) Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) speaks with Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT) as billionaire activist Tom Steyer listens after the seventh Democratic 2020 presidential debate at Drake University in Des Moines, Iowa, January 14, 2020.
Sen. Elizabeth Warren told Sen. Bernie Sanders, her fellow presidential candidate, after the recent Democratic debate that "I think you called me a liar on national TV," according to audio broadcast by CNN on Wednesday night.
The moment occurred following reports that Sanders, I-Vt., had previously told Warren, D-Mass., that he didn't think a woman could win a presidential election. Warren said it happened, and Sanders denied making the remark, including on the debate stage.
Warren told Sanders, "I think you called me a liar on national TV," and Sanders responded, "What?" according to the audio played by CNN. Warren repeated that he'd called her a liar.
"Let's not do it right now," Sanders replied. "You want to have that discussion, we'll have that discussion," according to the audio.
Warren says, "Any time," and Sanders says: "You called me a liar. You told me — all right, let's not do it now."
During the debate, Sanders denied having told Warren at a private meeting in 2018 that a woman couldn't win.
"Anybody knows me knows that it's incomprehensible that I would think that a woman could not be president of the United States," Sanders said.
Sanders was asked: "You're saying that you never told Senator Warren that a woman could not win the election?" Sanders replied: "That is correct."
Warren was then asked, "What did you think when Senator Sanders told you a woman could not win the election?"
"I disagreed," Warren replied. Then she said, "Bernie is my friend, and I am not here to try to fight with Bernie.
"But look, this question about whether or not a woman can be president has been raised, and it's time for us to attack it head on," she said.
The moment was one of the more talked-about exchanges from Tuesday night's debate, which was co-hosted by CNN and the Des Moines Register.


cnbc--2020-01-16--What's Putin up to? Here's what Russia's political upheaval could mean

Russia saw extreme political upheaval on Wednesday with constitutional reforms announced by President Vladimir Putin leading to the resignation of government .
By the end of the day , Putin had also proposed a new prime minister and political commentary was rife with speculation over the strongman 's strategy and grip on power .
The day started with Putin giving his annual address to lawmakers and members of the elite in which he announced a national referendum on the reforms that would seek to limit presidential power and hand more control to parliament .
One notable change would be that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , rather than the president , would appoint any prime minister .
Putin also suggested limiting future presidential terms to just two .
Like the U.S. , future presidents would have no possibility to return after these two terms ( as he himself has done ) .
Potential new powers for the State Council , an advisory body to the Kremlin led by Putin , were also outlined .
But there was little detail on what the changes could mean for Putin 's future role in public life .
Soon after , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to help implement the changes .
As Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev resigned on state television , with Putin sitting beside him , he said that the changes would `` introduce substantial changes not only to an entire range of articles of the constitution , but also to the entire balance of power , the power of the executive , the power of the legislature , the power of judiciary . ''
Putin then appointed Medvedev as his deputy within the state 's Security Council and swiftly nominated Mikhail Mishustin , the head of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ country 's new prime minister .
The announcements from Putin — the longest-serving Russian leader since Stalin , having occupied the presidential and prime ministerial offices alternatively for 20 years — prompted widespread speculation as to Russia 's political future , and Putin 's , after his current term in office ends in 2024 .
What is Putin up to and what does it all mean ?
Here 's a selection of comment and analysis from experts on what the changes could mean : What do the reforms mean ?
`` Putin proposed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ changes , which would reshape the balance of power in the country 's political system , '' Andrius Tursa , Central & Eastern Europe Advisor at Teneo Intelligence , said in a note late Wednesday .
`` The key suggested amendments would curb the extensive presidential influence by extending the role of Duma and regional governors , while the mandate of the largely symbolic State Council would be specified ( and potentially strengthened ) in the constitution . ''
All this suggests that Putin is intending to remain in power after his second @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Tursa said .
`` The proposed constitutional amendments , however , say little on what position he would undertake post-2024 , as he could become the head of government , the speaker of the parliament or remain the chairman of the strengthened Security Council . ''
`` It 's probably not the case that Putin has a definite end-state planned right now , '' Daragh McDowell , head of Europe and Principal Russia Analyst , Verisk Maplecroft , told CNBC Thursday .
`` The beauty of the constitutional reforms ... ( are ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ different possible perches where he can sit within the elite to continue to exercise influence of control over the political process after his current terms ends in 2024 . ''
`` These developments should be seen in the context of the `` 2024 problem '' —the question of what will happen at the end of Putin 's current presidential term , '' analysts at Eurasia Group said in a note late Wednesday .
`` The planned changes to the constitution add to our conviction that Putin intends to step down as president in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of his successor , Putin is providing scope for himself to retain influence for himself after he leaves office . ''
`` I would say that he 's ( Putin 's ) trying to ensure that no one ever comes in who is more powerful than he was , '' Gina Sanchez , chief executive of Chantico Global , told CNBC 's Squawk Box Europe .
`` So , he 's weakening the presidency .
The Russian presidency is one of the strongest in the world that has powers that can be unchecked @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on power ) , but in many ways he 's actually simply ensuring that , post his 2024 departure , that he can maintain a voice in the government and have a weak presidency that can not overshadow that voice . ''
`` He 's weakening the presidency and no one can argue that that 's a bad reform , but he 's doing it for the purposes of ensuring his own legacy , '' she added .
`` You could argue that for the past eight years , Medvedev 's job description @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Daragh McDowell , head of Europe and Principal Russia Analyst , Verisk Maplecroft , told CNBC Thursday .
`` And this is the kind of ultimate accrual of that in him being pensioned off to a somewhat less influential position .
There is a sense that Putin does n't really have much of an interest in domestic politics , particularly when we 're talking about the grind of rather unpopular domestic political issues , such as pension reform or reforming the somewhat stagnant economy .
These are n't as exciting issues like Syria @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Alex Brideau , and Zachary Witlin , senior analysts at Eurasia Group , remarked in a note Wednesday Medvedev 's move out of the premiership `` is not necessarily the demotion it appears at first glance , '' however .
`` If anything , Medvedev 's departure from the government gives him a chance to refurbish his image , '' they said .
`` The job of prime minister is a poisoned chalice : Medvedev was blamed by the public for unpopular domestic policies , such as 2018 reforms to the pension system @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Council on defense and foreign affairs will present him to the public in a more positive light .
At the very least , it looks like Medvedev is being given a chance to hone his qualifications to serve again as president . ''

A screen in the media room broadcasts Vladimir Putin, Russia's president, speaking during his annual state of the nation address in Moscow, Russia, on Wednesday, Jan. 15, 2020. Bloomberg
Russia saw extreme political upheaval on Wednesday with constitutional reforms announced by President Vladimir Putin leading to the resignation of government. By the end of the day, Putin had also proposed a new prime minister and political commentary was rife with speculation over the strongman's strategy and grip on power. The day started with Putin giving his annual address to lawmakers and members of the elite in which he announced a national referendum on the reforms that would seek to limit presidential power and hand more control to parliament. One notable change would be that the Duma (Russia's parliament), rather than the president, would appoint any prime minister. Putin also suggested limiting future presidential terms to just two. Like the U.S., future presidents would have no possibility to return after these two terms (as he himself has done). Potential new powers for the State Council, an advisory body to the Kremlin led by Putin, were also outlined. But there was little detail on what the changes could mean for Putin's future role in public life. Soon after, and with little warning, the government resigned to help implement the changes. As Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev resigned on state television, with Putin sitting beside him, he said that the changes would "introduce substantial changes not only to an entire range of articles of the constitution, but also to the entire balance of power, the power of the executive, the power of the legislature, the power of judiciary."
Russian President Vladimir Putin with Former President Dmitry Medvedev in 2020. Anadolu Agency
Putin then appointed Medvedev as his deputy within the state's Security Council and swiftly nominated Mikhail Mishustin, the head of the Federal Tax Service, as the country's new prime minister. The announcements from Putin — the longest-serving Russian leader since Stalin, having occupied the presidential and prime ministerial offices alternatively for 20 years — prompted widespread speculation as to Russia's political future, and Putin's, after his current term in office ends in 2024. What is Putin up to and what does it all mean? Here's a selection of comment and analysis from experts on what the changes could mean:
What do the reforms mean?
"Putin proposed a referendum on a package of constitutional changes, which would reshape the balance of power in the country's political system," Andrius Tursa, Central & Eastern Europe Advisor at Teneo Intelligence, said in a note late Wednesday. "The key suggested amendments would curb the extensive presidential influence by extending the role of Duma and regional governors, while the mandate of the largely symbolic State Council would be specified (and potentially strengthened) in the constitution." All this suggests that Putin is intending to remain in power after his second term in office expires in 2024, Tursa said. "The proposed constitutional amendments, however, say little on what position he would undertake post-2024, as he could become the head of government, the speaker of the parliament or remain the chairman of the strengthened Security Council."
watch now
"It's probably not the case that Putin has a definite end-state planned right now," Daragh McDowell, head of Europe and Principal Russia Analyst, Verisk Maplecroft, told CNBC Thursday. "The beauty of the constitutional reforms ... (are) that it gives him a number of different possible perches where he can sit within the elite to continue to exercise influence of control over the political process after his current terms ends in 2024."
Influence after 2024
"These developments should be seen in the context of the "2024 problem"—the question of what will happen at the end of Putin's current presidential term," analysts at Eurasia Group said in a note late Wednesday. "The planned changes to the constitution add to our conviction that Putin intends to step down as president in 2024. But by clipping the wings of his successor, Putin is providing scope for himself to retain influence for himself after he leaves office." "I would say that he's (Putin's) trying to ensure that no one ever comes in who is more powerful than he was," Gina Sanchez, chief executive of Chantico Global, told CNBC's Squawk Box Europe. "So, he's weakening the presidency. The Russian presidency is one of the strongest in the world that has powers that can be unchecked so he is creating these checks (on power), but in many ways he's actually simply ensuring that, post his 2024 departure, that he can maintain a voice in the government and have a weak presidency that cannot overshadow that voice." "He's weakening the presidency and no one can argue that that's a bad reform, but he's doing it for the purposes of ensuring his own legacy," she added.
Medvedev the fall guy?
"You could argue that for the past eight years, Medvedev's job description has been taking the blame," Daragh McDowell, head of Europe and Principal Russia Analyst, Verisk Maplecroft, told CNBC Thursday. "And this is the kind of ultimate accrual of that in him being pensioned off to a somewhat less influential position. There is a sense that Putin doesn't really have much of an interest in domestic politics, particularly when we're talking about the grind of rather unpopular domestic political issues, such as pension reform or reforming the somewhat stagnant economy. These aren't as exciting issues like Syria or geopolitics." Jason Bush, Alex Brideau, and Zachary Witlin, senior analysts at Eurasia Group, remarked in a note Wednesday Medvedev's move out of the premiership "is not necessarily the demotion it appears at first glance," however. "If anything, Medvedev's departure from the government gives him a chance to refurbish his image," they said. "The job of prime minister is a poisoned chalice: Medvedev was blamed by the public for unpopular domestic policies, such as 2018 reforms to the pension system. His new remit in the Security Council on defense and foreign affairs will present him to the public in a more positive light. At the very least, it looks like Medvedev is being given a chance to hone his qualifications to serve again as president."
Who is Mishustin?
"Mishustin is an interesting guy," Ariel Cohen, senior non-resident fellow at the Atlantic Council, told CNBC Thursday.
watch now
"This is the first time Russia has not only an economist but a big data-based guy in charge. He ran the Russian tax authority and made it very, very efficient - one of the best in the world ... He has a reputation as a modern, effective manager but not (a reputation) as a possible successor to Mr Putin."
Russia's President Vladimir Putin (L) and Mikhail Mishustin, former head of the Russian Federal Tax Service, and now prime prime minister, during a meeting at Moscow's Kremlin. Alexei Nikolsky


cnbc--2020-01-16--Giuliani associate Parnas says Trump 'knew exactly what was going on'

Lev Parnas , a Ukrainian-Floridian businessman who is both a client and associate of Rudy Giulianis arrives for his arraignment in the Southern District of New York ( SDNY ) on October 23 , 2019 .
Lev Parnas , the indicted associate of Rudy Giuliani who has been implicated in an alleged attempt to pressure the Ukrainian government to dig up dirt on former Vice President Joe Biden and his son , says , `` President Trump knew exactly what was going on . ''
`` He was aware of all my movements .
I would n't do anything without @ @ @ @ @ @ @ president .
I have no intent , I have no reason to speak to any of these officials , '' Parnas , who faces campaign finance charges , told MSNBC 's Rachel Maddow in an interview set to air Wednesday night .
`` I mean , they have no reason to speak to me .
Why would President Zelenskiy 's inner circle or Minister Avakov or all these people or President Poroshenko meet with me ?
Who am I ?
They were told to meet with me .
And that 's the secret @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I was on the ground doing their work , '' Parnas said .
Volodymyr Zelenskiy was elected president in April , defeating incumbent Petro Poroshenko .
Arsen Avakov is Ukraine 's interior minister .
Parnas and another Giuliani associate , Igor Fruman , have been charged with making $ 325,000 in illegal straw donations to a super PAC supporting President Donald Trump , as well as with giving $ 15,000 to a second committee , among a flurry of political donations to help them advance the interests of a Ukrainian government official and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the cannabis industry .
On Tuesday , House Democrats released records as part of the evidence that attorneys for Parnas turned over to House impeachment investigators , which show that Giuliani requested a private meeting with Zelenskiy , then the president-elect , with Trump 's `` knowledge and consent . ''
The evidence appears to bolster Democrats ' argument that Giuliani was doing Trump 's bidding by trying to dig up dirt on Biden and the Democratic National Committee .
An alleged campaign by Trump to pressure Zelenskiy to announce investigations into Biden @ @ @ @ @ @ @ served on the board of the Ukrainian energy company Burisma in 2014 until he left last year , is at the center of the impeachment articles against Trump .
Asked whether Trump specifically was aware that he and Giuliani were working on the effort in Ukraine specifically to hurt Joe Biden , Parnas said yes .
Biden is among several candidates seeking the Democratic presidential nomination .
`` Yeah , it was all about Joe Biden , Hunter Biden , and also Rudy had a personal thing with the Manafort stuff .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Paul Manafort , Trump 's former campaign manager , is serving a 7½-year prison sentence for tax evasion and violating federal lobbying laws after having been charged by special counsel Robert Mueller 's office .
`` And that was another thing that they were looking into , but it was never about corruption .
It was never — it was strictly about Burisma , which included Hunter Biden and Joe Biden , '' Parnas said .
Parnas also said Vice President Mike Pence 's planned trip to attend Zelenskiy 's inauguration in May @ @ @ @ @ @ @ agree to the demand for an investigation into the Bidens .
`` Oh , I know 100 percent .
It was 100 percent , '' he said .
Parnas was asked if Pence was aware there was a `` quid pro quo '' about the visit , and Parnas replied with a quote used by Gordon Sondland , the American ambassador to the European Union , during the House impeachment inquiry : `` Everybody was in the loop . ''
Maddow said her show reached out to Pence for comment and had not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ General William Barr was also likely aware of what was going on .
Parnas said he never personally spoke with Barr , but `` I was involved with lots of conversations '' that Giuliani and another person had with Barr in front of him .
`` Mr. Barr had to have known everything .
I mean , it 's impossible , '' Parnas said .
`` Attorney General Barr was basically on the team , '' he added .
Trump has denied knowing Parnas or Fruman .
Photos that Parnas posted to Facebook @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Trump and with the president 's eldest son , Donald Trump Jr. President Trump said `` it 's possible I have a picture with them because I have a picture with everybody . ''
Asked about Trump 's denial that he knows them , Parnas said , `` He lied . ''
The House voted Wednesday to send impeachment articles against Trump to the Senate , and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi , D-Calif. , announced the seven House Democrats who will serve as the `` managers '' in the trial , which is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ impeachment articles accuse Trump of abuse of power and obstruction of Congress .
Parnas said he wants to testify .
`` I want to get the truth out , '' he said , `` because I feel it 's important for our country . ''
`` There 's a lot of things that are being said that are not accurate , and I just want to make sure that they 're accurate , because things happened that need to get out , and I think the world needs to know , '' Parnas @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Senate will call any witnesses .
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell , R-Ky. , said the `` trial will commence in earnest on Tuesday . ''

Lev Parnas, a Ukrainian-Floridian businessman who is both a client and associate of Rudy Giulianis arrives for his arraignment in the Southern District of New York (SDNY) on October 23, 2019.
Lev Parnas, the indicted associate of Rudy Giuliani who has been implicated in an alleged attempt to pressure the Ukrainian government to dig up dirt on former Vice President Joe Biden and his son, says, "President Trump knew exactly what was going on."
"He was aware of all my movements. I wouldn't do anything without the consent of Rudy Giuliani or the president. I have no intent, I have no reason to speak to any of these officials," Parnas, who faces campaign finance charges, told MSNBC's Rachel Maddow in an interview set to air Wednesday night.
"I mean, they have no reason to speak to me. Why would President Zelenskiy's inner circle or Minister Avakov or all these people or President Poroshenko meet with me? Who am I? They were told to meet with me. And that's the secret that they're trying to keep. I was on the ground doing their work," Parnas said.
Volodymyr Zelenskiy was elected president in April, defeating incumbent Petro Poroshenko. Arsen Avakov is Ukraine's interior minister.
Parnas and another Giuliani associate, Igor Fruman, have been charged with making $325,000 in illegal straw donations to a super PAC supporting President Donald Trump, as well as with giving $15,000 to a second committee, among a flurry of political donations to help them advance the interests of a Ukrainian government official and a Russian national seeking to break into the cannabis industry.
On Tuesday, House Democrats released records as part of the evidence that attorneys for Parnas turned over to House impeachment investigators, which show that Giuliani requested a private meeting with Zelenskiy, then the president-elect, with Trump's "knowledge and consent."
The evidence appears to bolster Democrats' argument that Giuliani was doing Trump's bidding by trying to dig up dirt on Biden and the Democratic National Committee.
An alleged campaign by Trump to pressure Zelenskiy to announce investigations into Biden and his son, Hunter, who served on the board of the Ukrainian energy company Burisma in 2014 until he left last year, is at the center of the impeachment articles against Trump.
Asked whether Trump specifically was aware that he and Giuliani were working on the effort in Ukraine specifically to hurt Joe Biden, Parnas said yes. Biden is among several candidates seeking the Democratic presidential nomination.
"Yeah, it was all about Joe Biden, Hunter Biden, and also Rudy had a personal thing with the Manafort stuff. The black ledger," Parnas said.
Paul Manafort, Trump's former campaign manager, is serving a 7½-year prison sentence for tax evasion and violating federal lobbying laws after having been charged by special counsel Robert Mueller's office.
"And that was another thing that they were looking into, but it was never about corruption. It was never — it was strictly about Burisma, which included Hunter Biden and Joe Biden," Parnas said.
Parnas also said Vice President Mike Pence's planned trip to attend Zelenskiy's inauguration in May was canceled because the Ukrainians did not agree to the demand for an investigation into the Bidens. "Oh, I know 100 percent. It was 100 percent," he said.
Parnas was asked if Pence was aware there was a "quid pro quo" about the visit, and Parnas replied with a quote used by Gordon Sondland, the American ambassador to the European Union, during the House impeachment inquiry: "Everybody was in the loop."
Maddow said her show reached out to Pence for comment and had not received a response.
Parnas said Attorney General William Barr was also likely aware of what was going on. Parnas said he never personally spoke with Barr, but "I was involved with lots of conversations" that Giuliani and another person had with Barr in front of him.
"Mr. Barr had to have known everything. I mean, it's impossible," Parnas said. "Attorney General Barr was basically on the team," he added.
Trump has denied knowing Parnas or Fruman. Photos that Parnas posted to Facebook in 2018 show him and Fruman with Trump and with the president's eldest son, Donald Trump Jr. President Trump said "it's possible I have a picture with them because I have a picture with everybody."
Asked about Trump's denial that he knows them, Parnas said, "He lied."
The House voted Wednesday to send impeachment articles against Trump to the Senate, and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., announced the seven House Democrats who will serve as the "managers" in the trial, which is set to start next week.
The impeachment articles accuse Trump of abuse of power and obstruction of Congress.
Parnas said he wants to testify. "I want to get the truth out," he said, "because I feel it's important for our country."
"There's a lot of things that are being said that are not accurate, and I just want to make sure that they're accurate, because things happened that need to get out, and I think the world needs to know," Parnas said.
It's not clear whether the Senate will call any witnesses. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., said the "trial will commence in earnest on Tuesday."


cnbc--2020-01-16--Trump signs 'phase one' trade deal with China in push to stop economic conflict

The president said the U.S. and China are `` righting the wrongs of the past and delivering a future of economic justice and security for American workers , farmers and families . ''
He added that the deal has `` total and full enforceability . ''
The deal takes steps to root out several practices that irked the White House and bipartisan members of Congress , including intellectual property theft and forced technology transfers , in exchange for Chinese market access , according to text released by the White House .
It also details a $ 200 billion increase in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ years — a priority for Trump .
Through the deal , the Trump administration aims to resolve some longstanding American concerns about Chinese trade abuses .
However , the accord appears to leave questions about how Washington and Beijing will enforce its terms and prevent further tensions .
President Donald Trump signed a partial trade deal with China on Wednesday as the world 's two largest economies try to contain an economic struggle .
Chinese Vice Premier Liu He and US President Donald Trump sign a trade agreement between the US and China @ @ @ @ @ @ @ House in Washington , DC , January 15 , 2020 .
U.S. stocks rose Wednesday before the deal signing .
Trump signed off on the agreement after lengthy remarks dishing on impeachment , golf , his 2016 victory , stock market gains , the Federal Reserve 's interest rate policy and July 4 fireworks .
Here are some of the deal 's core pieces ( read the full agreement here ) : The president signed the deal as the House prepared to send articles of impeachment to the Senate and kick-start a trial @ @ @ @ @ @ @ him from office .
Chinese Vice Premier Liu He shakes hands with US President Donald Trump during a signing ceremony for trade agreement between the US and China in the East Room of the White House in Washington , DC , January 15 , 2020 .
The president thanked administration officials , Republican lawmakers , Republican megadonor Sheldon Adelson , Fox Business Network host Lou Dobbs , former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger and current and former businessmen Steve Schwarzman , Nelson Peltz and Hank Greenberg , among dozens of people he recognized @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the U.S. delegation as Trump spoke for nearly an hour before Chinese Vice Premier Liu He delivered a message from Chinese President Xi Jinping .
The Chinese leader called the trade deal `` good for China , for the U.S. and for the whole world , '' according to a translation .
He wrote that `` in the next step , the two sides need to implement the agreement in earnest . ''
The phase one agreement marks a major step in efforts to rein in a more than 18-month trade war between @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to crack down on what he calls China 's abusive trade practices and follow through on one of his core campaign promises .
Investors have looked for signs the U.S. and China want to dial back a tariff crossfire that threatens to wallop the global economy .
The deal signed Wednesday brings some welcome relief for businesses that feared the duties — though the bulk of them will stay in place .
`` We 're leaving tariffs on , but I will agree to take those tariffs off if we are able to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ words , we 're negotiating with the tariffs , '' Trump said .
U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer told reporters Wednesday that the agreement has `` real teeth '' to address China 's trade practices , adding that the U.S. will be able to tell by the spring whether it is enforceable .
He said American tariffs on Chinese goods will help the administration enforce the accord .
The U.S. aims to start talks on a second piece of the deal before the presidential election in November , Lighthizer said .
Last week @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to wait to finish 'til after the election , because by doing that , I think we can make a little bit better deal , maybe a lot better deal . ''
Under the agreement , the Trump administration scrapped tariffs initially set to take effect last month .
It also agreed to cut duties on $ 120 billion in products to 7.5 % .
Still , the White House has said it will leave tariffs on another $ 250 billion in Chinese products in place for now .
On Wednesday , Treasury @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the agreement that the U.S. hopes to strike could include more tariff relief .
`` Just as in this deal there were certain rollbacks , in phase two there will be additional rollbacks , '' he said , adding that China has `` a big incentive to get back to the table and agree to the additional issues that are still unresolved . ''

The president said the U.S. and China are "righting the wrongs of the past and delivering a future of economic justice and security for American workers, farmers and families." He added that the deal has "total and full enforceability."
The deal takes steps to root out several practices that irked the White House and bipartisan members of Congress, including intellectual property theft and forced technology transfers, in exchange for Chinese market access, according to text released by the White House. It also details a $200 billion increase in Chinese purchases of U.S. goods over two years — a priority for Trump.
Through the deal, the Trump administration aims to resolve some longstanding American concerns about Chinese trade abuses. However, the accord appears to leave questions about how Washington and Beijing will enforce its terms and prevent further tensions.
President Donald Trump signed a partial trade deal with China on Wednesday as the world's two largest economies try to contain an economic struggle.
Chinese Vice Premier Liu He and US President Donald Trump sign a trade agreement between the US and China in the East Room of the White House in Washington, DC, January 15, 2020.
U.S. stocks rose Wednesday before the deal signing. Trump signed off on the agreement after lengthy remarks dishing on impeachment, golf, his 2016 victory, stock market gains, the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy and July 4 fireworks.
Here are some of the deal's core pieces ( read the full agreement here ):
The president signed the deal as the House prepared to send articles of impeachment to the Senate and kick-start a trial on whether to convict Trump and remove him from office.
Chinese Vice Premier Liu He shakes hands with US President Donald Trump during a signing ceremony for trade agreement between the US and China in the East Room of the White House in Washington, DC, January 15, 2020.
The president thanked administration officials, Republican lawmakers, Republican megadonor Sheldon Adelson, Fox Business Network host Lou Dobbs, former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger and current and former businessmen Steve Schwarzman, Nelson Peltz and Hank Greenberg, among dozens of people he recognized. Chinese officials stood silently next to the U.S. delegation as Trump spoke for nearly an hour before Chinese Vice Premier Liu He delivered a message from Chinese President Xi Jinping.
The Chinese leader called the trade deal "good for China, for the U.S. and for the whole world," according to a translation. He wrote that "in the next step, the two sides need to implement the agreement in earnest."
The phase one agreement marks a major step in efforts to rein in a more than 18-month trade war between Washington and Beijing. Trump has pushed to crack down on what he calls China's abusive trade practices and follow through on one of his core campaign promises.
Investors have looked for signs the U.S. and China want to dial back a tariff crossfire that threatens to wallop the global economy. The deal signed Wednesday brings some welcome relief for businesses that feared the duties — though the bulk of them will stay in place.
"We're leaving tariffs on, but I will agree to take those tariffs off if we are able to do 'phase two.' In other words, we're negotiating with the tariffs," Trump said.
U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer told reporters Wednesday that the agreement has "real teeth" to address China's trade practices, adding that the U.S. will be able to tell by the spring whether it is enforceable. He said American tariffs on Chinese goods will help the administration enforce the accord.
The U.S. aims to start talks on a second piece of the deal before the presidential election in November, Lighthizer said. Last week, Trump said he "might want to wait to finish 'til after the election, because by doing that, I think we can make a little bit better deal, maybe a lot better deal."
Under the agreement, the Trump administration scrapped tariffs initially set to take effect last month. It also agreed to cut duties on $120 billion in products to 7.5%.
Still, the White House has said it will leave tariffs on another $250 billion in Chinese products in place for now. On Wednesday, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said a second phase of the agreement that the U.S. hopes to strike could include more tariff relief.
"Just as in this deal there were certain rollbacks, in phase two there will be additional rollbacks," he said, adding that China has "a big incentive to get back to the table and agree to the additional issues that are still unresolved."


cnbc--2020-01-17--The killing of Iran's top general was a 'wake-up call' to Tehran, Saudi prince says

The U.S. airstrike that killed Iran 's top commander showed Tehran that it ca n't get away with its provocations , but wo n't stop the country from continuing with its agenda , a former chief of Saudi intelligence told CNBC .
`` The taking out of ( Qasem ) Soleimani definitely has been an important step to check at least some of the ambitions of Iran after its very provocative actions in the past year , '' Saudi Arabian Prince Turki Al-Faisal told CNBC 's Hadley Gamble .
`` The attacks on the oil tankers , culminating in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ there was no response , '' he said .
`` This was a sort of a wake-up call to the Iranian government and the Iranian leadership that they ca n't get away with it . ''
Tehran has denied involvement in both incidents .
However , Al-Faisal said the death of Soleimani would not halt Iran 's `` agenda . ''
`` It definitely was a very important step , '' he said .
`` Whether it would stop further activities by Iran to use the methods that Soleimani was very clever in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ . ''
That 's because the Iranian leadership has an `` agenda and a project , '' he said .
`` That project is to be the dominant representative , if you like , of all of Islam in the world . ''
Tehran has used `` surrogates '' such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen to advance its project , he said .
`` That is going to continue , '' he predicted .
`` Maybe less efficiently than when Soleimani was alive , but inevitably , equally terroristic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in its intent . ''

The U.S. airstrike that killed Iran's top commander showed Tehran that it can't get away with its provocations, but won't stop the country from continuing with its agenda, a former chief of Saudi intelligence told CNBC.
"The taking out of (Qasem) Soleimani definitely has been an important step to check at least some of the ambitions of Iran after its very provocative actions in the past year," Saudi Arabian Prince Turki Al-Faisal told CNBC's Hadley Gamble.
"The attacks on the oil tankers, culminating in the attack on the Aramco facilities, and there was no response," he said. "This was a sort of a wake-up call to the Iranian government and the Iranian leadership that they can't get away with it."
Tehran has denied involvement in both incidents.
However, Al-Faisal said the death of Soleimani would not halt Iran's "agenda."
"It definitely was a very important step," he said. "Whether it would stop further activities by Iran to use the methods that Soleimani was very clever in using — I don't think so."
That's because the Iranian leadership has an "agenda and a project," he said. "That project is to be the dominant representative, if you like, of all of Islam in the world."
Tehran has used "surrogates" such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen to advance its project, he said.
"That is going to continue," he predicted. "Maybe less efficiently than when Soleimani was alive, but inevitably, equally terroristic and, in my view, evil in its intent."


cnbc--2020-01-16--Donald Trump vs. Greta Thunberg: Davos prepares for climate crisis showdown

President Donald Trump and Swedish climate activist Greta Thunberg will both attend the World Economic Forum ( WEF ) next week , stirring up a heightened sense of intrigue in the Swiss Alpine town of Davos .
The 50th edition of the annual January get-together — which draws policymakers and business leaders from around the world — is scheduled to focus on the intensifying climate crisis .
Trump is set to travel to the picturesque ski resort after skipping the conference last year due to the partial government shutdown .
The U.S. president , who is likely to be one @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , has often expressed skepticism about the scale of the climate crisis .
Since coming to power in 2016 , Trump has pulled the U.S. — one of the world 's leading carbon emitters — out of the Paris Agreement and sought to roll back over 80 environmental regulations .
His much-anticipated return to Davos will mark the first time he has attended the same event as Thunberg since the pair briefly crossed paths at the United Nations ( UN ) climate change summit in New York last year .
In a widely-shared @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be seen glaring at Trump as he addressed reporters .
The 17-year-old , who was catapulted to fame for skipping school every Friday to hold a weekly vigil outside Swedish parliament in 2018 , was recently named Time Magazine 's Person of the Year for 2019 .
She was recognized for the award after sparking an international wave of school strikes — also known as `` Fridays for Future . ''
Millions of children took part in rallies around the world to protest against political inaction over climate change .
`` So ridiculous @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Management problem , then go to a good old-fashioned movie with a friend !
Chill Greta , Chill ! ''
Trump tweeted on Dec. 12 .
In an interview with BBC radio 's Today program late last month , Thunberg said attacks from the U.S. president and others should be seen as `` proof that we are actually doing something and that they see us as some kind of threat . ''
When asked what she would have said to the U.S. president if they had spoken at the UN climate change summit @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I do n't think I would have said anything because obviously he 's not listening to scientists and experts , so why would he listen to me ? ''
`` So , I probably would n't have said anything , I would n't have wasted my time . ''
'We absolutely need to do things differently' Thunberg has reportedly pledged to tell global leaders in attendance at Davos to `` immediately and completely divest from fossil fuels . ''
She is scheduled to deliver the opening remarks of a panel session entitled `` @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The WEF 's theme , officially recognized as `` Stakeholders for a Cohesive and Sustainable World , '' follows a year which reportedly saw the hottest year on record for the world 's oceans , the second-hottest year for global average temperatures and wildfires from the U.S. to the Amazon to Australia .
The event , which is often criticized for being out of touch with the real world , has said it aims to assist governments and international institutions in tracking progress toward the Paris Agreement and the UN 's Sustainable @ @ @ @ @ @ @ absolutely need to do things differently .
We are not going to get anywhere by just carrying on doing what we used to do , '' Emily Farnworth , head of climate initiatives at WEF , told CNBC on Wednesday .
`` I think this pressure from young activists in really keeping a spotlight on where some of these problems lie is really important and having companies pushing to demonstrate how they can do things differently just helps to move things in the right direction , '' she added .

Swedish environmental activist Greta Thunberg watches as U.S. President Donald Trump enters the United Nations to speak with reporters in a still image from video taken in New York City, U.S. September 23, 2019. REUTERS | Andrew Hofstetter | File Photo
President Donald Trump and Swedish climate activist Greta Thunberg will both attend the World Economic Forum (WEF) this week, stirring up a heightened sense of intrigue in the Swiss Alpine town of Davos. The 50th edition of the annual January get-together — which draws policymakers and business leaders from around the world — is scheduled to focus on the intensifying climate crisis. Trump is set to travel to the picturesque ski resort after skipping the conference last year due to the partial government shutdown. The U.S. president, who is likely to be one of the star attractions of the event, has often expressed skepticism about the scale of the climate crisis. Since coming to power in 2016, Trump has pulled the U.S. — one of the world's leading carbon emitters — out of the Paris Agreement and sought to roll back over 80 environmental regulations.
watch now
His much-anticipated return to Davos will mark the first time he has attended the same event as Thunberg since the pair briefly crossed paths at the United Nations (UN) climate change summit in New York last year. In a widely-shared video on social media, Thunberg could be seen glaring at Trump as he addressed reporters.
What's the context?
The 17-year-old, who was catapulted to fame for skipping school every Friday to hold a weekly vigil outside Swedish parliament in 2018, was recently named Time Magazine's Person of the Year for 2019. She was recognized for the award after sparking an international wave of school strikes — also known as "Fridays for Future." Millions of children took part in rallies around the world to protest against political inaction over climate change. Tweet 1 "So ridiculous. Greta must work on her Anger Management problem, then go to a good old-fashioned movie with a friend! Chill Greta, Chill!" Trump tweeted on Dec. 12. In an interview with BBC radio's Today program late last month, Thunberg said attacks from the U.S. president and others should be seen as "proof that we are actually doing something and that they see us as some kind of threat." When asked what she would have said to the U.S. president if they had spoken at the UN climate change summit, Thunberg replied: "Honestly, I don't think I would have said anything because obviously he's not listening to scientists and experts, so why would he listen to me?" "So, I probably wouldn't have said anything, I wouldn't have wasted my time."
'We absolutely need to do things differently'
Thunberg has reportedly pledged to tell global leaders in attendance at Davos to "immediately and completely divest from fossil fuels." She is scheduled to deliver the opening remarks of a panel session entitled "Averting a Climate Apocalypse" on Tuesday. The WEF's theme, officially recognized as "Stakeholders for a Cohesive and Sustainable World," follows a year which reportedly saw the hottest year on record for the world's oceans, the second-hottest year for global average temperatures and wildfires from the U.S. to the Amazon to Australia.
A hotel employee checks a bottle of champagne as he stands on the snow covered bar terrace of the InterContinental Hotel Davos Matthew Lloyd/Bloomberg via Getty Images


cnbc--2020-01-16--Michael Bloomberg is seen as Democrat most likely to beat Trump if nominated, according to betting m

Michael Bloomberg is seen as Democrat most likely to beat Trump if nominated, according to betting market data

Former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg is seen as the Democrat most likely to defeat President Donald Trump if nominated , according to an analysis of online betting market data by researchers at Standard Chartered Bank .
But Bloomberg , who has spent hundreds of millions of dollars on his nascent bid for the presidency , still only has a 10 % chance of winning the primary , according to researchers Steve Englander and Geoff Kendrick , who published their findings in a note on Tuesday .
Bloomberg is far from the front of the Democratic primary field in national @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ascended rapidly in recent weeks in large part as a result of his unprecedented spending .
Bloomberg has spent more than $ 200 million on his campaign so far and has said he may spend up to $ 1 billion to defeat Trump even if he is not the nominee .
The research note from U.K.-based Standard Chartered attempts to explain the strength of the stock market despite polling that shows that Democrats are likely to defeat Trump in November 's election .
Analysts have speculated that financial markets could plunge if one @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , though the major U.S. indexes have continued to set records .
Englander , in an interview , said that the standard answer for why the stock market is n't reacting to much of the volatility of the 2020 race is that the election is `` too far away and too hard to hedge . ''
`` But this is an alternative answer : That the candidates that are most electable are seen as the least unfriendly to asset markets , '' he said .
Englander and Kendrick wrote in the note that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is likely that Trump or a moderate Democrat who is `` sympathetic to asset markets '' — notably Bloomberg or former Vice President Joe Biden — will ultimately prevail .
`` Among investors , Bloomberg and Biden are probably viewed as the most asset-market friendly among the Democratic candidates , so their greater implied electability may be why US assets are not showing more stress , '' the researchers wrote .
The researchers suggested it could also be too early for markets to be affected by the 2020 race and that investors may @ @ @ @ @ @ @ their agendas if elected .
Englander and Kendrick wrote that the decline in the past few weeks of one of the leading progressives in the race , Sen. Elizabeth Warren , D-Mass.
, may have neutralized the impact of the other , Sen. Bernie Sanders , I-Vt. , in the eyes of investors .
`` Sanders ' nomination probability has risen in online markets , but Warren 's decline may have matched or exceeded his move , '' they wrote .
Warren has slid in a number of polls conducted since early October @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and is now in second place behind Biden .
The outcome of the primary 's first contests in Iowa and New Hampshire next month , where the top candidates are all within spitting distance of a first place finish , could shape the race .
The researchers wrote that Sanders ' electability is perceived to be slightly behind Biden , while Warren and Buttigieg `` look to have relatively low odds of beating Trump '' if nominated .
Trump , they wrote , has a 55 % -60 % chance of winning if @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Democrat .
Incumbents are generally seen as having an electoral advantage , particularly when the economy is seen as strong .
Representatives for the Trump , Bloomberg , Sanders , Warren and Buttigieg campaigns all either did not respond to or declined requests for comment .
The researchers analyzed data available on two websites where gamblers can place bets on the outcome of political events , Betfair and Smarkets .
They also interpreted data available on Oddschecker , a website that compiles data from a range of online markets .
The analysts noted @ @ @ @ @ @ @ `` We use online markets but are mindful of their limitations , '' the researchers wrote .
`` The views expressed though the markets may be wrong ( just as polls often are ) and the probabilities they generate may not be reliable if the markets are relatively thin . ''
A thin market refers to one in which there is only a small number of buyers and sellers .
Online betting markets are generally far thinner than financial markets , for instance , and therefore less reliable as a measure of investor @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the online markets is that they ask very specific questions .
And the not nice thing about them is that they are kind of thin — they are not the Treasury market , '' Englander said .
`` So you have to be careful not to overstate the reliability .
But you can take it as another piece of evidence , or another indication of what people may be thinking . ''
Larry Sabato , a top elections analyst and director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia , said @ @ @ @ @ @ @ but cautioned that elections can be unpredictable and that Bloomberg 's path to winning the Democratic nomination is a steep one .
`` In 2016 no one got it right , '' Sabato wrote in an email .
`` My philosophy is , let a thousand flowers bloom .
The more analyses like this one , the better .
Groupthink has caused more good people to get it wrong than any other factor . ''
Sabato said that Bloomberg could have an opening if the first four states to award delegates — Iowa @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Carolina — produce four different winners .
`` Then he might be able to offer Democrats a way out , beginning on Super Tuesday , '' Sabato wrote .
`` Stranger things have happened ( such as Trump ) . ''
A spokesperson for Oddschecker , Pete Watt , said in a statement that the key difference between polling and betting markets is that `` polls ask participants to state their personal voting intention , whereas betting markets present punters with an opportunity to back who they actually think will win . ''
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ already with over 10 months to go until the election , with even more to be staked between now and November 3rd , '' Watt said .
`` And it is important to understand that as the amount grows , the degree of accuracy grows with it . ''
The president himself is eyeing Bloomberg closely , according to a report published Tuesday in The New York Times , unsettled by his financial resources , though his aides told the paper that they do not see Bloomberg as a serious challenger .

Democratic U.S. presidential candidate Michael Bloomberg addresses a news conference after launching his presidential bid in Norfolk, Virginia, U.S., November 25, 2019. Joshua Roberts | Reuters
Former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg is seen as the Democrat most likely to defeat President Donald Trump if nominated, according to an analysis of online betting market data by researchers at Standard Chartered Bank. But Bloomberg, who has spent hundreds of millions of dollars on his nascent bid for the presidency, still only has a 10% chance of winning the primary, according to researchers Steve Englander and Geoff Kendrick, who published their findings in a note on Tuesday. Bloomberg is far from the front of the Democratic primary field in national and state polling, though he has ascended rapidly in recent weeks in large part as a result of his unprecedented spending. Bloomberg has spent more than $200 million on his campaign so far and has said he may spend up to $1 billion to defeat Trump even if he is not the nominee.
watch now
The research note from U.K.-based Standard Chartered attempts to explain the strength of the stock market despite polling that shows that Democrats are likely to defeat Trump in November's election. Analysts have speculated that financial markets could plunge if one of the race's progressives is elected, though the major U.S. indexes have continued to set records. Englander, in an interview, said that the standard answer for why the stock market isn't reacting to much of the volatility of the 2020 race is that the election is "too far away and too hard to hedge." "But this is an alternative answer: That the candidates that are most electable are seen as the least unfriendly to asset markets," he said. Englander and Kendrick wrote in the note that it's possible that investors believe it is likely that Trump or a moderate Democrat who is "sympathetic to asset markets" — notably Bloomberg or former Vice President Joe Biden — will ultimately prevail. "Among investors, Bloomberg and Biden are probably viewed as the most asset-market friendly among the Democratic candidates, so their greater implied electability may be why US assets are not showing more stress," the researchers wrote. The researchers suggested it could also be too early for markets to be affected by the 2020 race and that investors may believe that candidates could face trouble enacting their agendas if elected. Englander and Kendrick wrote that the decline in the past few weeks of one of the leading progressives in the race, Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., may have neutralized the impact of the other, Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., in the eyes of investors. "Sanders' nomination probability has risen in online markets, but Warren's decline may have matched or exceeded his move," they wrote.
watch now


cnbc--2020-01-16--Putin consolidates power as Russian government resigns

Russia 's government resigned Wednesday to make way for major new constitutional changes , according to the Tass state news agency , citing Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev .
Without giving much detail , the news agency said President Vladimir Putin thanked Medvedev 's government for its work .
The move was reportedly made so Putin can carry out sweeping constitutional changes he spoke about at his annual address just hours earlier .
`` For my part , I also want to thank you for everything that was done at this stage of our joint work , I want to express @ @ @ @ @ @ @ achieved , '' Putin told a meeting of ministers , according to Tass .
`` Not everything was done , but everything never works out in full , '' Putin said .
Later , Russian news agencies reported that Putin wants to appoint Mikhail Mishustin , the head of Russia 's Federal Tax Service , as the new Prime Minister .
News of the government resignation came after Putin 's annual address to lawmakers .
The Russian leader proposed a national vote on constitutional changes that would push power toward the prime minister @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the presidency .
It 's seen as potentially limiting the power of Putin 's successor if he steps down in 2024 .

Russia's government resigned Wednesday to make way for major new constitutional changes, according to the Tass state news agency, citing Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev.
Without giving much detail, the news agency said President Vladimir Putin thanked Medvedev's government for its work. The move was reportedly made so Putin can carry out sweeping constitutional changes he spoke about at his annual address just hours earlier.
"For my part, I also want to thank you for everything that was done at this stage of our joint work, I want to express satisfaction with the results that have been achieved," Putin told a meeting of ministers, according to Tass.
"Not everything was done, but everything never works out in full," Putin said.
Later, Russian news agencies reported that Putin wants to appoint Mikhail Mishustin, the head of Russia's Federal Tax Service, as the new Prime Minister.
News of the government resignation came after Putin's annual address to lawmakers. The Russian leader proposed a national vote on constitutional changes that would push power toward the prime minister and the parliament, and away from the presidency. It's seen as potentially limiting the power of Putin's successor if he steps down in 2024.


cnbc--2020-01-17--Supreme Court to decide whether Electoral College voters have a right to differ from state popular v

Supreme Court to decide whether Electoral College voters have a right to differ from state popular vote

The Supreme Court will decide whether Electoral College voters have a constitutional right to cast ballots for candidates who did n't win their state 's popular vote , the justices announced in an order on Friday .
The justices said they will hear two cases brought by Electoral College voters in Washington state and Colorado who refused to vote for Hillary Clinton in 2016 despite her wins in those states .
Like most states , Washington and Colorado require their electors to follow the will of their states ' voters .
But those laws are now being challenged by Electoral @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are unconstitutional .
A decision in the matter is expected by the end of June , ahead of the U.S. presidential election in November .
The cases are the latest in a string of high-profile disputes the top court is expected to resolve in a contentious election year .
Historically , the faithfulness of Electoral College voters has largely been a formality .
In 2016 , 10 out of the total 538 electors attempted to cast ballots out of line with their state 's popular vote .
But attorneys on both sides of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ resolve the constitutional question before a crisis emerges .
Larry Lessig , an attorney for the electors in Washington , wrote in court papers that a swing by 10 electors would have been enough to alter the results in five of 58 previous presidential races .

The Supreme Court will decide whether Electoral College voters have a constitutional right to cast ballots for candidates who didn't win their state's popular vote, the justices announced in an order on Friday.
The justices said they will hear two cases brought by Electoral College voters in Washington state and Colorado who refused to vote for Hillary Clinton in 2016 despite her wins in those states.
Like most states, Washington and Colorado require their electors to follow the will of their states' voters. But those laws are now being challenged by Electoral College voters who argue that such laws are unconstitutional.
A decision in the matter is expected by the end of June, ahead of the U.S. presidential election in November. The cases are the latest in a string of high-profile disputes the top court is expected to resolve in a contentious election year.
Historically, the faithfulness of Electoral College voters has largely been a formality. In 2016, 10 out of the total 538 electors attempted to cast ballots out of line with their state's popular vote. But attorneys on both sides of the issue urged the top court to resolve the constitutional question before a crisis emerges.
Larry Lessig, an attorney for the electors in Washington, wrote in court papers that a swing by 10 electors would have been enough to alter the results in five of 58 previous presidential races.


cnbc--2020-01-18--Trump economic advisor Larry Kudlow says White House is 'looking at' changes to global anti-bribery

Trump economic advisor Larry Kudlow says White House is 'looking at' changes to global anti-bribery law

Larry Kudlow , director of the U.S. National Economic Council , speaks to members of the media outside the White House in Washington , D.C. , U.S. , on Monday , Oct. 7 , 2019 .
WASHINGTON — The Trump administration is `` looking at '' making changes to a decades-old global anti-bribery law , White House economic advisor Larry Kudlow told reporters on Friday .
`` We are looking at it , and we have heard some complaints from our companies , '' Kudlow said , responding to a question about the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act .
The law @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to secure contracts overseas .
`` I do n't want to say anything definitive policy-wise , but we are looking at it , '' Kudlow added .
Pressed about the specific changes the White House might try to make to the FCPA , Kudlow declined to offer details but signaled that the administration was working on a `` package '' of reforms .
`` Let me wait until we get a better package , '' before addressing specifics , Kudlow said at the White House .
A White House spokesman did not respond @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was being considered .
The questions about possible changes to the FCPA were sparked by revelations in a soon-to-be-released book about Trump , which describes an episode in which Trump bitterly complained about the law , which he sees as a hindrance to U.S. businesses competing overseas .
According to Washington Post reporters Phillip Rucker and Carol Leonnig , in 2017 Trump told his then-Secretary of State Rex Tillerson that it was `` just so unfair that American companies are n't allowed to pay bribes to get business overseas . ''

Larry Kudlow, director of the U.S. National Economic Council, speaks to members of the media outside the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., on Monday, Oct. 7, 2019.
WASHINGTON — The Trump administration is "looking at" making changes to a decades-old global anti-bribery law, White House economic advisor Larry Kudlow told reporters on Friday.
"We are looking at it, and we have heard some complaints from our companies," Kudlow said, responding to a question about the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act. The law generally prohibits American companies from paying bribes to secure contracts overseas.
"I don't want to say anything definitive policy-wise, but we are looking at it," Kudlow added.
Pressed about the specific changes the White House might try to make to the FCPA, Kudlow declined to offer details but signaled that the administration was working on a "package" of reforms.
"Let me wait until we get a better package," before addressing specifics, Kudlow said at the White House. A White House spokesman did not respond to follow-up questions from CNBC about what was being considered.
The questions about possible changes to the FCPA were sparked by revelations in a soon-to-be-released book about Trump, which describes an episode in which Trump bitterly complained about the law, which he sees as a hindrance to U.S. businesses competing overseas.
According to Washington Post reporters Phillip Rucker and Carol Leonnig, in 2017 Trump told his then-Secretary of State Rex Tillerson that it was "just so unfair that American companies aren't allowed to pay bribes to get business overseas."


cnbc--2020-01-17--Andrew Yang sounds off on 'frothy' private market and 'overvalued' stocks

Fluorescent shipping containers , billiard tables atop AstroTurf , and his signature `` MATH '' campaign signs plastered to the walls greeted Democratic presidential candidate Andrew Yang on Thursday night at a fundraiser in downtown San Francisco .
Hundreds of supporters braved a torrential downpour and a line that wrapped around city blocks to see the entrepreneur and nonprofit executive , who has attracted a wave of contributions from small-money donors .
The top ticket for Thursday 's event ?
$ 5,600 , which featured a VIP reception hosted by California Assemblyman Evan Low .
The fundraiser also featured a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ one of several celebrities who have backed Yang , alongside Dave Chappelle and Donald Glover .
Yang was absent from this week 's seventh Democratic primary debate after failing to meet the polling threshold .
But he still managed to be the fourth-most-tweeted-about candidate during the debate .
Yang raised $ 16.5 million in the fourth quarter of last year , his best three-month total to date .
Yet , he 's still trailing the rest of the pack , including Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders , who brought in $ 34.5 million .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ the debate stage on Tuesday , Yang 's campaign said that the candidate still raised over $ 1 million this week .
In an exclusive interview with CNBC ahead of the fundraiser , Yang discussed a range of topics — from the stock market 's recent run to the threat of a recession , and even Baby Yoda .
He cautioned a slight downturn was `` very likely '' this year and sounded off on what he called a `` frothy '' private market .
`` Did you see what happened at WeWork @ @ @ @ @ @ @ they 're not alone . ''
Yang also joined fellow Democratic hopeful Pete Buttigieg this week in slamming Facebook 's political ad policy .
`` They need to step up and verify the facts and truth of the ads that they have on their platform , '' Yang said .
`` Cable networks do it .
Why ca n't they ? ''
In a 20-minute speech to his supporters at the event , Yang touted his signature campaign proposal , a `` freedom dividend '' that would give all Americans , 18 and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ universal basic income .
Despite slipping in recent polls , Yang also vowed to continue to fight for the nomination – eyeing strong support in California , one of the Super Tuesday states holding primaries on March 3. Notable Silicon Valley tech titans were absent from Yang 's event , as fellow Democratic candidate Mike Bloomberg hosted his own event at a gallery nearby in San Francisco 's SoMa neighborhood .
Recode reported Thursday that venture capitalist Ron Conway was among the industry leaders in attendance there .
Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ other top executives Bloomberg 's campaign has approached .
Two tech veterans , former Foursquare CEO Jeff Glueck and former Facebook chief marketing officer Gary Briggs are managing the Bloomberg 's campaign 's digital operations .
Still , Yang has attracted his fair share of Silicon Valley power brokers .
Sam Altman , president of prominent startup incubator Y Combinator , hosted a fundraiser for Yang back in November .
Twitter and Square CEO Jack Dorsey has donated to Yang 's campaign , while Tesla CEO Elon Musk publicly endorsed the candidate , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ needed . ''
Asked to compare his event to Bloomberg 's on Thursday , Yang said he was sure it was `` very different '' but declined to elaborate further .
Here are excerpts taken from a rapid-fire style Q & A , which have been edited and condensed : A : You ca n't oversimplify to that extent ... you need to actually dig in and solve the problems they 're concerned about .
Q : Fed Chair Powell 's tenure thus far — approve or disapprove ?
A : Somewhere in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ : Recession in 2020 — likely or unlikely ?
A : I 'd say a slight downturn in 2020 is very likely .
Q : What would you do to combat it if so ?
A : I would start putting more economic buying power into people 's hands so that we have a trickle-up economy .
A : They need to step up and verify the facts and truth of the ads that they have on their platform .
Cable networks do it .
Why ca n't Facebook ?
A : Definitely @ @ @ @ @ @ @ see what happened at WeWork ?
And they 're not alone .
A : Wow , they both have very hard jobs .
But I 'm going to say Zuckerberg .
A : I do n't think that 's an either or .
I think you can draw a balance between the two .
A : It 's real .
So , I do n't know if that means it 's underappreciated ... but it 's real .
A : Instagram ...
I joke that TikTok is for people who find Instagram too @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , even after that last movie .
Q : So you like The Mandalorian ?
A : I 've been too much on the campaign trail to get into the Baby Yoda phenomenon .
But I 'm sure I 'd enjoy it ... people tell me it 's great .
A : We want to make them our friends , so the quickest way to do that would be to give everyone $ 1,000 a month so they would all be excited about the robots .
A : iPhone at this point .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
So , Android users ... no hate ... love .
Q : If you do n't win the candidacy and the election , how do you continue to advance your agenda ?
What 's the next step ?
A : The problems are going to be here until we solve them .
So , I would look forward to working with the next administration ... hopefully a Democratic administration..in some capacity to solve the problems .
Ideally , I 'll be the president .
If I 'm not the president , I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I can work with .
Q : Would you rule out working with a Republican administration ?
A : If it 's a Republican administration , it means that Trump has been reelected .
And I do n't have a whole lot of confidence in this administration 's ability to address many of these problems .
But , bigger picture ... would I work with Republicans ?
Of course .
Q : Last question ... will the Dow be at 30,000 by the end of the year ?
A : I 'm not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ now .

Fluorescent shipping containers, billiard tables atop AstroTurf, and his signature "MATH" campaign signs plastered to the walls greeted Democratic presidential candidate Andrew Yang on Thursday night at a fundraiser in downtown San Francisco.
Hundreds of supporters braved a torrential downpour and a line that wrapped around city blocks to see the entrepreneur and nonprofit executive, who has attracted a wave of contributions from small-money donors.
The top ticket for Thursday's event? $5,600, which featured a VIP reception hosted by California Assemblyman Evan Low. The fundraiser also featured a performance by Chinese-American comedian Joe Wang — one of several celebrities who have backed Yang, alongside Dave Chappelle and Donald Glover.
Yang was absent from this week's seventh Democratic primary debate after failing to meet the polling threshold. But he still managed to be the fourth-most-tweeted-about candidate during the debate. Yang raised $16.5 million in the fourth quarter of last year, his best three-month total to date. Yet, he's still trailing the rest of the pack, including Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, who brought in $34.5 million.
(Fourth-most tweeted about candidate)
And, despite not making it to the debate stage on Tuesday, Yang's campaign said that the candidate still raised over $1 million this week.
In an exclusive interview with CNBC ahead of the fundraiser, Yang discussed a range of topics — from the stock market's recent run to the threat of a recession, and even Baby Yoda. He cautioned a slight downturn was " very likely" this year and sounded off on what he called a "frothy" private market.
"Did you see what happened at WeWork?" Yang said. "And they're not alone."
Yang also joined fellow Democratic hopeful Pete Buttigieg this week in slamming Facebook' s political ad policy.
"They need to step up and verify the facts and truth of the ads that they have on their platform," Yang said. "Cable networks do it. Why can't they?"
In a 20-minute speech to his supporters at the event, Yang touted his signature campaign proposal, a "freedom dividend" that would give all Americans, 18 and older, $1,000 per month in universal basic income.
Despite slipping in recent polls, Yang also vowed to continue to fight for the nomination – eyeing strong support in California, one of the Super Tuesday states holding primaries on March 3.
Notable Silicon Valley tech titans were absent from Yang's event, as fellow Democratic candidate Mike Bloomberg hosted his own event at a gallery nearby in San Francisco's SoMa neighborhood. Recode reported Thursday that venture capitalist Ron Conway was among the industry leaders in attendance there. Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff and Linkedin co-founder Reid Hoffman were among the other top executives Bloomberg's campaign has approached. Two tech veterans, former Foursquare CEO Jeff Glueck and former Facebook chief marketing officer Gary Briggs are managing the Bloomberg's campaign's digital operations.
Still, Yang has attracted his fair share of Silicon Valley power brokers. Sam Altman, president of prominent startup incubator Y Combinator, hosted a fundraiser for Yang back in November. Twitter and Square CEO Jack Dorsey has donated to Yang's campaign, while Tesla CEO Elon Musk publicly endorsed the candidate, arguing universal basic income is "obviously needed."
(publicly endorsed)
Asked to compare his event to Bloomberg's on Thursday, Yang said he was sure it was "very different" but declined to elaborate further.
Here are excerpts taken from a rapid-fire style Q&A, which have been edited and condensed:


cnbc--2020-01-17--'They're trying to impeach the son of a bitch, can you believe that?' Trump tells LSU championship f

'They're trying to impeach the son of a bitch, can you believe that?' Trump tells LSU championship football team before Senate trial

Days before his Senate trial is to begin in earnest , President Donald Trump told the visiting LSU football team Friday : `` They 're trying to impeach the son of a bitch , can you believe that ? ''
Trump 's salty comment about himself came as he welcomed the national college football championship team at the White House 's East Room At one point , with team members behind him , Trump invited the players into the Oval Office to pose with him for photos .
`` We 'll take pictures behind the Resolute Desk .
It 's @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Trump told the team , which easily beat Clemson 42-25 in the national title game in New Orleans , which the president attended .
`` A lot of presidents , some good , some not so good , '' Trump said of his predecessors .
`` But you got a good one now , even though they 're trying to impeach the son of a bitch , can you believe that ? ''
Trump said to raucous laughter from his audience .
`` Can you believe that ?
Got the greatest economy we @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 've got the greatest military .
We rebuilt it .
We took out those terrorists like your football team would have taken out those terrorists , right ? ''

Days before his Senate trial is to begin in earnest, President Donald Trump told the visiting LSU football team Friday: "They're trying to impeach the son of a bitch, can you believe that?"
Trump's salty comment about himself came as he welcomed the national college football championship team at the White House's East Room
At one point, with team members behind him, Trump invited the players into the Oval Office to pose with him for photos.
"We'll take pictures behind the Resolute Desk. It's been there a long time," Trump told the team, which easily beat Clemson 42-25 in the national title game in New Orleans, which the president attended.
"A lot of presidents, some good, some not so good," Trump said of his predecessors.
"But you got a good one now, even though they're trying to impeach the son of a bitch, can you believe that?" Trump said to raucous laughter from his audience.
"Can you believe that? Got the greatest economy we've ever had, Joe. We've got the greatest military. We rebuilt it. We took out those terrorists like your football team would have taken out those terrorists, right?"


cnbc--2020-01-17--Op-Ed: New York's bail reform disaster is about to become a major election issue

Now the story has become national news , and it 's a perfect example of the kind of easy-to-understand and emotionally charged issue that can become a major factor in a national election .
Making matters worse , some of the repeat offenders have been arrested for committing acts of anti-semitic assault and harassment just as New York is seeing a disturbing spike in those crimes .
In what 's becoming an almost hourly stream of depressing updates , New York 's newspapers , local TV news shows , and news sites are posting story after story about violent crimes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ arrests because of bail reform .
Less than three weeks after the law went into effect , it sure looks like the naysayers were right .
But critics of the law have been warning for months that eliminating bail was sure to put too many criminals with violent tendencies back on streets , even if they were n't currently under arrest for very violent crimes .
That issue is the controversial bail reform law pushed through the New York State legislature by Governor Andrew Cuomo late last year .
The law eliminates cash @ @ @ @ @ @ @ discriminates against poorer defendants .
A story that 's beginning to boil over in New York is about to become a major issue in the 2020 election .
Crime stories also have a rare ability to energize otherwise non-politically active Americans .
Ask anyone who lived through the urban crime waves of the late 1960s through the 1980s to confirm that .
In case you need to be convinced how big a political issue this could become , remember that violent crime stories are visceral in many ways .
They often involve life @ @ @ @ @ @ @ painted in terms of `` good guys '' and `` bad guys '' with very little gray areas in between .
Crime stories also have a rare ability to energize otherwise non-politically active Americans .
Ask anyone who lived through the urban crime waves of the late 1960s through the 1980s to confirm that .
If all of this sounds like something tailor-made for President Trump to take advantage of , you 're right .
While he has n't commented on any of the crimes committed by any of the released offenders this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in a tweet last November : Remember that Trump has already made a wedge issue out of sanctuary city policies and crimes committed by illegal immigrants .
His decision to pinpoint those issues as a candidate helped him win over Republican voters in the 2016 primaries .
But Trump could find even more bipartisan support by highlighting these no bail-related crime stories , which are already affecting Democratic elected leaders and their voters .
That 's even true for New York 's Democrat Governor Andrew Cuomo , who was most responsible for the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ He stated earlier this week that he thinks some changes should be made to the law .
But he did n't say how or when .
On the much more urgent side of that fence are six Democratic state senators from suburban Long Island , who now say they 've made changing the bail reform laws their top legislative priority for the upcoming session .
That 's a dramatic about-face for a party that celebrated the bail reform law it passed just 10 months ago as a paragon of economic and racial equality @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for the Democratic Party 's national leaders to take a cue from those Long Island state senators .
We 're just a Trump tweet away from New York 's bail problem from becoming something the entire party and its remaining presidential candidates will have to bear .
The good news for the Democratic presidential candidates is that none of them can be personally connected to the bail reform law the way the George H.W .
Bush campaign successfully saddled then-Massachusetts Governor Michael Dukakis with prison furlough programs in the infamous Willie Horton ad @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as a whole is real .
This is an issue that 's resonating in the suburbs , where polls show Trump 's support has been weakening .
The even better news is that some Democrats running could take almost as much advantage of this issue as Trump .
That is , if they want to stand out from the still-crowded primary field .
If Joe Biden resumes his push to present himself as the more moderate candidate , these crimes in New York would be a perfect trend for him to decry publicly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ would also be a perfect stance for Mike Bloomberg to take based on his strong anti-crime track record as New York City 's former mayor .
Of course it wo n't be that easy .
The Democratic presidential candidates on the campaign trail have so far mirrored the overall leftward shift of the party .
That includes Bloomberg , who previewed his official entry into the presidential race by apologizing for the NYPD 's `` Stop and Frisk '' policy that left wing groups strongly opposed during his time in office .
In @ @ @ @ @ @ @ down to which candidate is the most persuasive .
Right now , this bail issue is a perfect `` jump ball '' opportunity for any of the remaining presidential candidates to prove just how persuasive they can be .
It 's likely that Trump and at least one of the Democrats running will grab hold of this issue .
The only question is who will do it first .
Jake Novak is a political and economic analyst at Jake Novak News and former CNBC TV producer .
You can follow him on Twitter @ @ @

Now the story has become national news , and it's a perfect example of the kind of easy-to-understand and emotionally charged issue that can become a major factor in a national election.
Making matters worse, some of the repeat offenders have been arrested for committing acts of anti-semitic assault and harassment just as New York is seeing a disturbing spike in those crimes.
In what's becoming an almost hourly stream of depressing updates, New York's newspapers, local TV news shows, and news sites are posting story after story about violent crimes being committed by people instantly released after arrests because of bail reform.
Less than three weeks after the law went into effect, it sure looks like the naysayers were right.
But critics of the law have been warning for months that eliminating bail was sure to put too many criminals with violent tendencies back on streets, even if they weren't currently under arrest for very violent crimes.
That issue is the controversial bail reform law pushed through the New York State legislature by Governor Andrew Cuomo late last year. The law eliminates cash bail on the argument that cash bail discriminates against poorer defendants.
A story that's beginning to boil over in New York is about to become a major issue in the 2020 election.
Crime stories also have a rare ability to energize otherwise non-politically active Americans. Ask anyone who lived through the urban crime waves of the late 1960s through the 1980s to confirm that.
In case you need to be convinced how big a political issue this could become, remember that violent crime stories are visceral in many ways. They often involve life and death, and can be easily painted in terms of "good guys" and "bad guys" with very little gray areas in between.
Crime stories also have a rare ability to energize otherwise non-politically active Americans. Ask anyone who lived through the urban crime waves of the late 1960s through the 1980s to confirm that.
If all of this sounds like something tailor-made for President Trump to take advantage of, you're right. While he hasn't commented on any of the crimes committed by any of the released offenders this year, he did preview the situation in a tweet last November:
Trump tweet
Remember that Trump has already made a wedge issue out of sanctuary city policies and crimes committed by illegal immigrants. His decision to pinpoint those issues as a candidate helped him win over Republican voters in the 2016 primaries. But Trump could find even more bipartisan support by highlighting these no bail-related crime stories, which are already affecting Democratic elected leaders and their voters.
That's even true for New York's Democrat Governor Andrew Cuomo, who was most responsible for the bail reform bill passing last year. He stated earlier this week that he thinks some changes should be made to the law. But he didn't say how or when. On the much more urgent side of that fence are six Democratic state senators from suburban Long Island, who now say they've made changing the bail reform laws their top legislative priority for the upcoming session. That's a dramatic about-face for a party that celebrated the bail reform law it passed just 10 months ago as a paragon of economic and racial equality.
It would be a wise move for the Democratic Party's national leaders to take a cue from those Long Island state senators. We're just a Trump tweet away from New York's bail problem from becoming something the entire party and its remaining presidential candidates will have to bear.
The good news for the Democratic presidential candidates is that none of them can be personally connected to the bail reform law the way the George H.W. Bush campaign successfully saddled then-Massachusetts Governor Michael Dukakis with prison furlough programs in the infamous Willie Horton ad. But the danger to the party as a whole is real. This is an issue that's resonating in the suburbs, where polls show Trump's support has been weakening.
The even better news is that some Democrats running could take almost as much advantage of this issue as Trump. That is, if they want to stand out from the still-crowded primary field. If Joe Biden resumes his push to present himself as the more moderate candidate, these crimes in New York would be a perfect trend for him to decry publicly. Strongly criticizing the no bail law would also be a perfect stance for Mike Bloomberg to take based on his strong anti-crime track record as New York City's former mayor.
Of course it won't be that easy. The Democratic presidential candidates on the campaign trail have so far mirrored the overall leftward shift of the party. That includes Bloomberg, who previewed his official entry into the presidential race by apologizing for the NYPD's "Stop and Frisk" policy that left wing groups strongly opposed during his time in office.
In the American election game, it comes down to which candidate is the most persuasive. Right now, this bail issue is a perfect "jump ball" opportunity for any of the remaining presidential candidates to prove just how persuasive they can be. It's likely that Trump and at least one of the Democrats running will grab hold of this issue. The only question is who will do it first.
Jake Novak is a political and economic analyst at Jake Novak News and former CNBC TV producer. You can follow him on Twitter @jakejakeny.