cnbc--2020-06-25--Wall Street executives brace for a potential Biden win as Trump fades in polls

Finance executives are now bracing for Joe Biden to potentially win the presidency as Donald Trump slides in national and swing-state polls .
Various current and former Wall Street financiers , analysts , lobbyists , lawyers and political advisors with banking clients spoke to CNBC about how the industry is bracing for a possible Biden win .
Some spoke on the record , others decided to discuss on the condition of anonymity as they were not authorized to speak publicly on the issue .
The changes in tone and expectation – and , in some cases , preparation for a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ many executives who privately cheered on Trump 's cuts in corporate and income taxes , along with his rollback of regulations .
Many of them have traditionally projected more moderate leanings in public settings .
Michael Novogratz , an investor and philanthropist , said he has noticed a change from many of his wealthy finance friends who were convinced that Trump would win because , at the time , the economy was humming and the market was consistently soaring .
Since the start of the coronavirus pandemic , millions of people in America @ @ @ @ @ @ @ market , while it recovered from its steepest losses , remains in flux .
`` Five months ago I had a dinner with 10 of the best investors .
I was the only guy that thought Biden would win .
Eight were for Trump , one undecided and one Biden supporter , '' Novogratz said Thursday .
`` I think if you polled that group today it would be a 50 to 50 split or 60 to 40 for Biden . ''
The preparation for a Biden presidency ranges from privately warning clients @ @ @ @ @ @ @ soon be going up , to veteran executives speaking to people linked to Biden out of hopes they can have access to the White House .
Others are donating more to Biden 's campaign .
A Wall Street bundler with ties to former President Barack Obama and Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton , has recently noticed a surge in calls being returned by uncommitted finance executives to now give to Biden .
This person has also pitched donors that if they donate , they may have a better chance at seeing their philanthropic initiatives @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on Wall Street are slowly changing their bets to Biden , despite their financial successes under the Trump administration , is the president 's handling of the coronavirus .
Trump has come under scrutiny and withering criticism by lawmakers and activists for being what they see as either too slow to react to the pandemic or for not doing enough to help states .
Finance executives have become infuriated watching what they believe is the U.S. struggling to overcome the pandemic while their political and business allies in Europe have had more success @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by The Hill shows that there are now close to 30,000 new cases per day in the United States while in the European Union there are close to 3,000 cases each day .
`` It 's an article of faith among Wall Streeter 's to know that the U.S. is structurally superior to Europe .
Watching Europe outperform us on Covid-19 burns them , '' said an analyst at an asset management firm .
Robert Wolf , the founder of 32 Advisors , a holding company which includes the direct investing arm 32 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ coronavirus started spreading through the U.S. , he 's been emailing close to 175 influential people , including CEOs and politicians , giving his take on the pandemic , markets , the election – and how he sees Biden standing above Trump .
Wolf is a former CEO of UBS Americas , previously an advisor to Obama and a current Biden supporter .
He wrote to his email list just after Memorial Day that taxes were going to be raised under Biden , but he justified the idea because , as he puts @ @ @ @ @ @ @ equivalent to how a government goes to war .
Taxing the rich , then , is a necessary decision , according to Wolf .
`` Everyone must do their part .
Our medical professionals , front line workers , first responders and business owners who were forced to close their shops have certainly done so , '' Wolf said in a email titled `` War & Taxes . ''
`` We will need the wealthy and high income earners to do their part financially , as they 've done following previous wars , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ confidence in Biden within the industry follows what has been a strong 2020 fundraising election cycle for the Democrat .
Money is flowing into his campaign and other efforts from all corners of the business community , including from Wall Street financiers .
In May , Biden 's campaign combined with the Democratic National Committee to outraise Trump and the Republican National Committee .
Biden and the DNC finished bringing in $ 80 million while Trump and the RNC raised $ 74 million .
Biden and groups supporting him are outraising Trump from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , according to the nonpartisan Center for Responsive Politics [ CRP ] .
This is n't necessarily a tell that Biden will win .
While Obama raised more from the securities industry than his rival , John McCain , in 2008 , Mitt Romney in 2012 and Clinton in 2016 enjoyed similar advantages in their losing campaigns .
The data , which includes all the verified contributions through April , shows that Biden and external committees backing him have raised $ 29 million through those who work in financial firms .
Meanwhile , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ brought in $ 7 million .
Pro-Biden financial executives include a few at Bain Capital , a firm that was founded by Romney and specializes in private equity , venture capital and other businesses .
In 2016 , 17 % of the contributions from that firm went to Republican congressional candidates , the data from CRP shows .
This cycle so far , only 4 % have gone to the GOP .
That strength Biden has with small- and big-money donors will likely even pay off more in June .
People familiar with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ president and the DNC could combine to raise $ 100 million by the end of the month .

Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden delivers remarks after meeting with Pennsylvania families who have benefited from the Affordable Care Act on June 25, 2020 in Lancaster, Pennsylvania. Jim Watson | AFP | Getty Images
Finance executives are now bracing for Joe Biden to potentially win the presidency as Donald Trump slides in national and swing-state polls. Various current and former Wall Street financiers, analysts, lobbyists, lawyers and political advisors with banking clients spoke to CNBC about how the industry is bracing for a possible Biden win. Some spoke on the record, others decided to discuss on the condition of anonymity as they were not authorized to speak publicly on the issue. The changes in tone and expectation – and, in some cases, preparation for a Biden presidency – represent an about-face for many executives who privately cheered on Trump's cuts in corporate and income taxes, along with his rollback of regulations. Many of them have traditionally projected more moderate leanings in public settings.
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Michael Novogratz, an investor and philanthropist, said he has noticed a change from many of his wealthy finance friends who were convinced that Trump would win because, at the time, the economy was humming and the market was consistently soaring. Since the start of the coronavirus pandemic, millions of people in America were forced into unemployment, and the market, while it recovered from its steepest losses, remains in flux. "Five months ago I had a dinner with 10 of the best investors. I was the only guy that thought Biden would win. Eight were for Trump, one undecided and one Biden supporter," Novogratz said Thursday. "I think if you polled that group today it would be a 50 to 50 split or 60 to 40 for Biden." The preparation for a Biden presidency ranges from privately warning clients and affluent friends that their taxes will soon be going up, to veteran executives speaking to people linked to Biden out of hopes they can have access to the White House. Others are donating more to Biden's campaign. A Wall Street bundler with ties to former President Barack Obama and Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton, has recently noticed a surge in calls being returned by uncommitted finance executives to now give to Biden. This person has also pitched donors that if they donate, they may have a better chance at seeing their philanthropic initiatives supported by a Biden administration.
Economic anxiety
Coronavirus concerns
Some on Wall Street are slowly changing their bets to Biden, despite their financial successes under the Trump administration, is the president's handling of the coronavirus. Trump has come under scrutiny and withering criticism by lawmakers and activists for being what they see as either too slow to react to the pandemic or for not doing enough to help states. Finance executives have become infuriated watching what they believe is the U.S. struggling to overcome the pandemic while their political and business allies in Europe have had more success in combating the virus. Data cited by The Hill shows that there are now close to 30,000 new cases per day in the United States while in the European Union there are close to 3,000 cases each day. "It's an article of faith among Wall Streeter's to know that the U.S. is structurally superior to Europe. Watching Europe outperform us on Covid-19 burns them," said an analyst at an asset management firm. Robert Wolf, the founder of 32 Advisors, a holding company which includes the direct investing arm 32 Ventures, told CNBC that since the coronavirus started spreading through the U.S., he's been emailing close to 175 influential people, including CEOs and politicians, giving his take on the pandemic, markets, the election – and how he sees Biden standing above Trump. Wolf is a former CEO of UBS Americas, previously an advisor to Obama and a current Biden supporter. He wrote to his email list just after Memorial Day that taxes were going to be raised under Biden, but he justified the idea because, as he puts it, fighting the coronavirus is the equivalent to how a government goes to war. Taxing the rich, then, is a necessary decision, according to Wolf. "Everyone must do their part. Our medical professionals, front line workers, first responders and business owners who were forced to close their shops have certainly done so," Wolf said in a email titled "War & Taxes." "We will need the wealthy and high income earners to do their part financially, as they've done following previous wars," the email said.
Money flowing from Wall Street to Biden


cnbc--2020-06-26--Trump cranks up attacks on the Black Lives Matter movement for racial justice

U.S. President Donald Trump speaks at a joint news conference with Polish President Andrzej Duda in the Rose Garden of the White House on June 24 , 2020 in Washington , DC .
Reached for comment about Newsome 's Fox News interview , a BLM spokesperson told CNBC , `` As BLM has told Mr. Newsome in the past , and as is still true today , Mr. Newsome 's group is not a chapter of BLM and has not entered into any agreement with BLM agreeing to adhere to BLM 's core principles . ''
In his tweet , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Black Lives Matter leader . ''
But in reality , Newsome has repeatedly angered the founders of the official Black Lives Matter movement by adopting their moniker and raising money off of it , while espousing an approach to racial justice that is far more militant than the main branch of the Black Lives Matter movement .
Trump was quoting Walter `` Hawk '' Newsome , who was a guest on Fox News earlier in the day .
In the same interview , Newsome also said that BLM activists should be applauded for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ said his threat to `` burn down this system '' could be either figurative or literal , depending upon one 's viewpoint .
Trump , seizing on a quote by a man who runs a fringe Black Lives Matter knock-off group , and a chant that is not popular with protesters , suggested in tweets that the loosely organized racial justice movement poses a threat .
WASHINGTON – President Donald Trump on Thursday launched his most direct attacks to date on the nationwide Black Lives Matter movement for racial justice .
CNBC reached @ @ @ @ @ @ @ if the president was aware that Newsome was not actually a `` Black Lives Matter leader , '' but a spokesman did not respond to questions .
Exactly one minute after Trump tweeted out Newsome 's quote , he posted another tweet about BLM .
This time , Trump railed at New York Mayor Bill De Blasio 's recently announced decision to paint a `` Black Lives Matter '' mural on Fifth Avenue in front of one of Trump Tower , the site of Trump 's former residence .
It is one of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ city .
Trump claims in the tweet that a chant about killing police is `` their chant , '' referring to the Black Lives Matter movement .
But that chant has not been popular with protesters in New York or anywhere else in the country in the wake of George Floyd 's killing in late May in Minneapolis .
Five minutes after the mural tweet , Trump tweeted , `` LAW AND ORDER ! ''
one of his most oft-repeated phrases ever since the start of the nationwide movement for racial justice that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The tweets come near the end of a week during which the president , trailing badly behind Democrat Joe Biden in presidential polls , has repeatedly sought to sow fresh racial divisions among Americans .
In the past seven days , Trump has deployed a racist nickname for the deadly coronavirus , demanded that a toppled Confederate statue in Washington be restored , tweeted context-free videos of black people attacking white people , tweeted a doctored video purportedly showing a `` racist baby , '' and accused former President Barack Obama of `` @ @ @ @ @ @ @ same culture wars that helped Trump to win the White House in 2016 , the president hopes to galvanize his core supporters , and to drive a wedge between suburban middle-class White voters and the activists protesting in cities across the nation .
Yet polls increasingly show that Trump 's strategy is backfiring .
Instead of siding with Trump against the protests , some of which have turned violent , a majority of Americans say the country 's leaders should focus on the underlying reasons for the protests , and not on cracking @ @ @ @ @ @ @ break the law .
A New York Times/Siena College poll released this week found that 63 % of registered voters said they would rather back a presidential candidate `` who focuses on the cause of protests , even when the protests go too far . ''
Only 31 % said they would prefer to support a candidate `` who says we need to be tough on demonstrations that go too far . ''

U.S. President Donald Trump speaks at a joint news conference with Polish President Andrzej Duda in the Rose Garden of the White House on June 24, 2020 in Washington, DC.
Reached for comment about Newsome's Fox News interview, a BLM spokesperson told CNBC, "As BLM has told Mr. Newsome in the past, and as is still true today, Mr. Newsome's group is not a chapter of BLM and has not entered into any agreement with BLM agreeing to adhere to BLM's core principles."
In his tweet, Trump falsely described Newsome as a "Black Lives Matter leader." But in reality, Newsome has repeatedly angered the founders of the official Black Lives Matter movement by adopting their moniker and raising money off of it, while espousing an approach to racial justice that is far more militant than the main branch of the Black Lives Matter movement.
Trump was quoting Walter "Hawk" Newsome, who was a guest on Fox News earlier in the day. In the same interview, Newsome also said that BLM activists should be applauded for arming themselves with guns, and he said his threat to "burn down this system" could be either figurative or literal, depending upon one's viewpoint.
Trump, seizing on a quote by a man who runs a fringe Black Lives Matter knock-off group, and a chant that is not popular with protesters, suggested in tweets that the loosely organized racial justice movement poses a threat.
WASHINGTON – President Donald Trump on Thursday launched his most direct attacks to date on the nationwide Black Lives Matter movement for racial justice.
CNBC reached out to the White House to ask if the president was aware that Newsome was not actually a "Black Lives Matter leader," but a spokesman did not respond to questions.
Exactly one minute after Trump tweeted out Newsome's quote, he posted another tweet about BLM.
This time, Trump railed at New York Mayor Bill De Blasio's recently announced decision to paint a "Black Lives Matter" mural on Fifth Avenue in front of one of Trump Tower, the site of Trump's former residence. It is one of five such murals being painted throughout the city.
TRUMP TWEET
Trump claims in the tweet that a chant about killing police is "their chant," referring to the Black Lives Matter movement. But that chant has not been popular with protesters in New York or anywhere else in the country in the wake of George Floyd's killing in late May in Minneapolis.
Five minutes after the mural tweet, Trump tweeted, "LAW AND ORDER!" one of his most oft-repeated phrases ever since the start of the nationwide movement for racial justice that was triggered by Floyd's death.
The tweets come near the end of a week during which the president, trailing badly behind Democrat Joe Biden in presidential polls, has repeatedly sought to sow fresh racial divisions among Americans.
In the past seven days, Trump has deployed a racist nickname for the deadly coronavirus, demanded that a toppled Confederate statue in Washington be restored, tweeted context-free videos of black people attacking white people, tweeted a doctored video purportedly showing a "racist baby," and accused former President Barack Obama of "treason."
By cranking up the same culture wars that helped Trump to win the White House in 2016, the president hopes to galvanize his core supporters, and to drive a wedge between suburban middle-class White voters and the activists protesting in cities across the nation.
Yet polls increasingly show that Trump's strategy is backfiring. Instead of siding with Trump against the protests, some of which have turned violent, a majority of Americans say the country's leaders should focus on the underlying reasons for the protests, and not on cracking down on protesters, even ones who break the law.
A New York Times/Siena College poll released this week found that 63% of registered voters said they would rather back a presidential candidate "who focuses on the cause of protests, even when the protests go too far." Only 31% said they would prefer to support a candidate "who says we need to be tough on demonstrations that go too far."


cnbc--2020-06-26--House passes Democratic police reform bill after GOP plan stalls in the Senate

Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi , D-Calif. , speaks as House Democrats gather for a press event on the House steps ahead of the vote on the George Floyd Justice in Policing Act of 2020 on Thursday , June 25 , 2020 .
`` The Justice in Policing Act is a bill for human rights in our country , '' Congressional Black Caucus Chair Rep. Karen Bass , D-Calif. , said of the legislation Thursday morning .
The measure the House passed Thursday evening would make it easier for victims of abuses to sue police and for officials to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ban chokeholds and `` no-knock '' search warrants at the federal level , and tie funding to state and local governments to them barring those tactics .
It would also require bias training and more data sharing about police use of force .
On Wednesday , Senate Democrats blocked a separate Republican plan that they said did not go nearly far enough to root out systemic racism and violence in policing .
Democrats in the chamber approved the legislation with little Republican support by a 236-181 margin .
Three GOP lawmakers voted for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ police reform bill Thursday as Congress struggles to find a consensus on how to respond to overwhelming public demand for law enforcement overhaul .
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi ( D-CA ) applauds as Rep. Karen Bass ( D-CA ) , Chair of the Congressional Black Caucus ( CBC ) , speaks during a press event ahead of vote on the George Floyd Justice in Policing Act of 2020 on the East Front House Steps on Capitol Hill in Washington , U.S. , June 25 , 2020 .
As Democrats cast the measure as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and abuses Black Americans face from police , it remains to be seen whether the full Congress can pass reform legislation .
The Senate is unlikely to approve the proposal , as President Donald Trump and his GOP allies oppose a provision to roll back `` qualified immunity '' for officers , among other parts of the plan .
When Democrats voted not to move forward with the Senate Republican bill on Wednesday , they argued the chamber should form a bipartisan group to come up with a compromise plan .
So far @ @ @ @ @ @ @ doing so , and Congress risks failing to respond to the loudest public call to root out police abuses in decades .
Sen. Tim Scott , a South Carolina Republican who led the legislation , contended Thursday that Democrats `` walked away '' from police reform in the Senate .
He had urged them to allow debate on the bill and then propose amendments , a process Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said would not resolve the proposal 's issues .
Unlike the Democratic legislation , the GOP bill would not roll back @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it easier to prosecute officers who commit abuses .
The chokehold ban in the Republican plan is more narrow , and it calls for collecting data on no-knock warrants rather than banning them .
Neither bill meets the demands many activists have outlined since police killed 46-year-old Black man George Floyd in Minneapolis late last month , setting off weeks of protests around the world .
Demonstrators have called for governments to cut at least some funding from police departments and redirect it to social services to address inequities in the job market @ @ @ @ @ @ @ federal government has only limited authority over the changes state and local governments can make to their police departments .
It comes in part from its ability to tie conditions to funding and grants that states and municipalities receive from Washington .
But certain state and local governments have already started to take their own steps to reform policing practices .
Some have passed chokehold bans or measures to improve transparency , or pledged to cut funding from their departments .
A majority of the Minneapolis City Council went as far as to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ department entirely .
While the House legislation does not go as far as many would like it to , Democrats repeatedly described it as an initial step toward a major law enforcement overhaul .
On Thursday , Bass said the House was `` embarking on a journey toward a new vision of policing in America . ''

Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., speaks as House Democrats gather for a press event on the House steps ahead of the vote on the George Floyd Justice in Policing Act of 2020 on Thursday, June 25, 2020.
"The Justice in Policing Act is a bill for human rights in our country," Congressional Black Caucus Chair Rep. Karen Bass , D-Calif., said of the legislation Thursday morning.
The measure the House passed Thursday evening would make it easier for victims of abuses to sue police and for officials to fire and prosecute officers. It would ban chokeholds and "no-knock" search warrants at the federal level, and tie funding to state and local governments to them barring those tactics. It would also require bias training and more data sharing about police use of force.
On Wednesday, Senate Democrats blocked a separate Republican plan that they said did not go nearly far enough to root out systemic racism and violence in policing.
Democrats in the chamber approved the legislation with little Republican support by a 236-181 margin. Three GOP lawmakers voted for it.
The House passed a Democratic police reform bill Thursday as Congress struggles to find a consensus on how to respond to overwhelming public demand for law enforcement overhaul.
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) applauds as Rep. Karen Bass (D-CA), Chair of the Congressional Black Caucus (CBC), speaks during a press event ahead of vote on the George Floyd Justice in Policing Act of 2020 on the East Front House Steps on Capitol Hill in Washington, U.S., June 25, 2020.
As Democrats cast the measure as a first step toward addressing the discrimination and abuses Black Americans face from police, it remains to be seen whether the full Congress can pass reform legislation. The Senate is unlikely to approve the proposal, as President Donald Trump and his GOP allies oppose a provision to roll back "qualified immunity" for officers, among other parts of the plan.
When Democrats voted not to move forward with the Senate Republican bill on Wednesday, they argued the chamber should form a bipartisan group to come up with a compromise plan. So far, the Senate has not committed to doing so, and Congress risks failing to respond to the loudest public call to root out police abuses in decades.
Sen. Tim Scott, a South Carolina Republican who led the legislation, contended Thursday that Democrats "walked away" from police reform in the Senate. He had urged them to allow debate on the bill and then propose amendments, a process Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said would not resolve the proposal's issues.
Tim Scott tweet
Unlike the Democratic legislation, the GOP bill would not roll back qualified immunity protections for police or make it easier to prosecute officers who commit abuses. The chokehold ban in the Republican plan is more narrow, and it calls for collecting data on no-knock warrants rather than banning them.
Neither bill meets the demands many activists have outlined since police killed 46-year-old Black man George Floyd in Minneapolis late last month, setting off weeks of protests around the world. Demonstrators have called for governments to cut at least some funding from police departments and redirect it to social services to address inequities in the job market, education and health care.
The federal government has only limited authority over the changes state and local governments can make to their police departments. It comes in part from its ability to tie conditions to funding and grants that states and municipalities receive from Washington.
But certain state and local governments have already started to take their own steps to reform policing practices. Some have passed chokehold bans or measures to improve transparency, or pledged to cut funding from their departments.
A majority of the Minneapolis City Council went as far as to pledge to replace the city's police department entirely.
While the House legislation does not go as far as many would like it to, Democrats repeatedly described it as an initial step toward a major law enforcement overhaul.
On Thursday, Bass said the House was "embarking on a journey toward a new vision of policing in America."
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cnbc--2020-06-25--How Rep. Val Demings could help Joe Biden 'meet the moment' as his vice presidential pick

WASHINGTON – `` It 's almost laughable to hear the president defend law enforcement now , '' said Rep. Val Demings on a recent Democratic conference call .
`` This is the president , remember how well I know , who considers himself above the law and everyone else beneath it . ''
With these two lines , the Florida Democrat unwittingly captured both why she belongs on Joe Biden 's vice presidential shortlist , and why she could be a risky choice for a running mate .
The first Black woman to serve as chief of police in Orlando @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Congress in 2016 to represent the Sunshine State 's 10th district , which includes parts of the city .
But today , with the nation at a political and cultural crossroads , Demings seems like a politician who was made for this moment .
Weeks of nationwide protests against police killings of unarmed Black people are forcing Americans to confront the reality of systemic racism .
Meanwhile , in cities and towns across the country , ordinary people are asking tough questions about the fundamental purpose of law enforcement .
Demings , 63 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ both of these national debates .
She also hails from the swingiest swing state , Florida , a state Trump won in 2016 , but which Democrats hope to retake in November .
Indeed , recent polling suggests that Biden has a lead over Trump in the state .
Demings ' unique resume and life experience , along with the talent for oratory she revealed last winter while serving as an impeachment manager in Trump 's trial , make the second-term congresswoman seem like an ideal running mate for Biden .
But Demings @ @ @ @ @ @ @ weakness .
`` That automatically is going to turn off a group of voters who will just never vote for a police officer .
They see her as part of the establishment , part of the problem , '' Austin said in an interview with CNBC .
Yet Austin also noted that Demings `` has a very positive reputation here in Florida , '' having won her congressional race in 2016 by a double digit margin , and running unopposed in 2018 .
Today , Demings faces stiff competition in the 2020 veepstakes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ list .
Biden has already pledged to choose a woman as his running mate , and he is under pressure to choose a woman of color .
`` What I 'm hearing is it 's down to three people , Demings , [ Sen. Kamala ] Harris and [ Sen. Elizabeth ] Warren , '' said John Morgan , a Florida based attorney and well-connected Biden bundler .
Susan Rice , a Black woman who served as President Barack Obama 's national security advisor , is also reportedly in the running , as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ who chairs the Congressional Black Caucus .
`` Sure , they 'll find some police brutality in Orlando , and that 'll be her albatross , '' Morgan said of Demings .
`` Her greatest strength is , ' I was a police chief who prosecuted the president . '
But the way opposition research works , is they make your greatest strength into your greatest weakness .
Look at John Kerry .
He was a war hero , and look what they did to him . ''
Morgan was referring to the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Truth '' campaign , a conservative effort to smear the Vietnam War record of then-Sen. Kerry , the Democratic nominee .
But while the Swift Boat claims were later discredited , the Orlando Police Department has long faced criticism for fostering a culture of impunity , including under Demings ' leadership .
Demings knows this .
`` Looking for a negative story in a police department is like looking for a prayer at church , '' she wrote in a 2008 op-ed defending the Orlando police after the publication of a damning expose @ @ @ @ @ @ @ stories out there , and successfully defending your record in a bare-knuckle fight for the White House , are two different things .
`` The question is whether she 'll be able to talk about her law enforcement background in a way that 's going to meet the moment , '' said Aimee Allison , founder and president of She the People , a national organization dedicated to elevating the political power of women of color .
`` Any vice presidential nominee , including Val Demings , will need to communicate a policy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and that pushes the boundaries of traditional models , '' Allison said .
`` So I look forward to learning more about her . ''
Born in 1957 , during the waning years of the Jim Crow South , Demings grew up poor in Jacksonville , Florida , one of seven children in a two-room house .
Her father worked as a janitor , and her mother cleaned houses .
As a young police officer , Demings met Jerry Demings , and the two were married in 1988 .
They have three @ @ @ @ @ @ @ chief of police in Orlando from 1998-2002 , retiring five years before his wife was named chief .
Today , Jerry Demings is the mayor of Orange County , Florida , and one half of a power couple in the state 's political scene .
To hear Demings tell it , her career has been driven by a desire to share the opportunities she 's had with others .
`` I know what discrimination feels like .
I know what racism feels like , because I have been subjected to it , '' @ @ @ @ @ @ @ `` I chose jobs where I could work directly with people to help improve their quality of life .
As a social worker , as a career law enforcement officer , chief of police , and now a member of Congress , '' she said .
Demings was not available for an interview Wednesday with CNBC , her office said .
But in response to a question about whether she has a policy vision for racial justice , a spokeswoman for Demings pointed to the former social worker 's life story .
`` @ @ @ @ @ @ @ wants everyone to have , like equal access to health and mental health care , education and economic opportunities , '' said the spokeswoman , Kate Coyne McCoy .
But this statement offers a window into another factor weighing on Demings ' qualifications as a running mate for Biden : After four years in the House , Demings has yet to be the public face of major legislation , something that her chief rivals for the VP nod , Harris and Warren , have both done in the Senate .
This is largely @ @ @ @ @ @ @ chambers – with only 100 senators total , each senator spends a lot more time in the spotlight than the average House member , who is one of 435 .
But it also reflects the fact that , save for issues related to criminal justice and policing , Demings has so far staked out relatively few defined policy positions .
On issues ranging from foreign policy , veterans affairs and big business regulation , to trade , technology and health care , Demings ' positions amount to little more than a few votes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ she co-sponsored .
Lacking a full policy portfolio likely puts Demings at a disadvantage in the vice presidential search , where insiders say Biden and his team are prioritizing candidates ' readiness to assume the presidency at a moment 's notice .
In the last 20 years , no presidential nominee of either party has won the White House without winning Florida 's 29 electoral votes .
But in those same 20 years , no one has won Florida by more than 3 percentage points , making every last vote a nominee secures @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and precious .
If by putting Demings on the Democratic ticket alongside Biden , it could help deliver for Democrats enough of these precious Florida votes to win the state , then perhaps this alone would be worth the risks of selecting a former cop .
`` The battleground states like Florida that Biden could win are probably where he should put his energies , '' said Austin , of the University of Florida .
`` He needs to win back states that Democrats lost in 2016 , and running with [ California @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , where Demings could . ''
`` It does n't matter what anyone says about Harris being a strong running mate because she 's a senator , the fact is , California is won '' for Democrats , said Morgan , the Florida lawyer .
Hanging over all these deliberations is the knowledge that Trump won Florida in 2016 by 1.2 percentage points , just over 100,000 votes .
In 2012 , Obama won the state by less than 1 point .
And while Demings ' law enforcement career might not bode well @ @ @ @ @ @ @ electorate , in her home state , the actual work Demings did every day was very community focused , said Susan McManus , a professor emeritus at the University of Florida and an expert in the politics of the state .
`` One of the big differences between a police chief like Demings and a prosecutor like Kamala Harris is that as a police chief , you 're really out among the community , doing outreach , listening to residents and helping people in very tangible ways , '' said McManus .
`` @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , is often making decisions from afar , and may only really interact with the community members in court . ''
McManus also warned against looking at Florida through a binary Black and White lens , or even a Black , White and Hispanic lens .
`` The fabric of Florida is very complex from a racial perspective and an age perspective , '' she said .
`` Within each of the traditional racial categories , there 's a real diversity of political views , influenced by where people 's families originated , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and whether or not their communities are economically stable . ''
`` Then within all these nuanced groups , you have younger voters who might be more progressive , and their parents , who might be more conservative .
And this is before you even factor in the retirees , who vote in higher numbers relative to their population than other groups , '' said McManus .
Taken together , Florida 's diverse voting blocs , coupled with its razor-thin margins , said McManus , `` mean that every group can say to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 'll lose . '
That 's why figuring out a winning strategy in Florida is so incredibly challenging . ''
But with so many diverse voter groups in Florida , could Demings really make a difference to a Biden ticket there ?
Or are there simply too many variables influencing the electorate to justify a `` hometown hero '' vice presidential pick ?
McManus believes the biggest factor in choosing a successful vice president for Biden is n't the geography , or even the ethnicity of his running mate .
`` The real @ @ @ @ @ @ @ reconstruct the passion voters felt when they voted for Obama , '' she said .
`` He 's got to get a feeling of energy into his ticket . ''

Val Demings serving as a panelist at the National Town Hall: 'Black Lives Matter' panel for the 45th Annual Legislative Black Caucus Foundation on September 17, 2015 in Washington, DC. Earl Gibson III | Getty Images
WASHINGTON – "It's almost laughable to hear the president defend law enforcement now," said Rep. Val Demings on a recent Democratic conference call. "This is the president, remember how well I know, who considers himself above the law and everyone else beneath it." With these two lines, the Florida Democrat unwittingly captured both why she belongs on Joe Biden's vice presidential shortlist, and why she could be a risky choice for a running mate. The first Black woman to serve as chief of police in Orlando, Florida, Demings was elected to Congress in 2016 to represent the Sunshine State's 10th district, which includes parts of the city. But today, with the nation at a political and cultural crossroads, Demings seems like a politician who was made for this moment. Weeks of nationwide protests against police killings of unarmed Black people are forcing Americans to confront the reality of systemic racism. Meanwhile, in cities and towns across the country, ordinary people are asking tough questions about the fundamental purpose of law enforcement. Demings, 63, can offer an uncommon insight into both of these national debates. She also hails from the swingiest swing state, Florida, a state Trump won in 2016, but which Democrats hope to retake in November. Indeed, recent polling suggests that Biden has a lead over Trump in the state. Demings' unique resume and life experience, along with the talent for oratory she revealed last winter while serving as an impeachment manager in Trump's trial, make the second-term congresswoman seem like an ideal running mate for Biden. But Demings' greatest strength is also her greatest weakness.
Black or blue
During her four-year tenure as chief of police in Orlando from 2007-2011, critics say Demings led a police force whose officers used excessive force, often on young, Black suspects. This has led some progressive Democrats to argue that, as a former cop, Demings cannot be trusted to help fix the national policing system. "Her biggest obstacle as a running mate is her police background," said Sharon Austin, a professor of political science at the University of Florida.
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"That automatically is going to turn off a group of voters who will just never vote for a police officer. They see her as part of the establishment, part of the problem," Austin said in an interview with CNBC. Yet Austin also noted that Demings "has a very positive reputation here in Florida," having won her congressional race in 2016 by a double digit margin, and running unopposed in 2018. Today, Demings faces stiff competition in the 2020 veepstakes, where she is on the short list. Biden has already pledged to choose a woman as his running mate, and he is under pressure to choose a woman of color. "What I'm hearing is it's down to three people, Demings, [Sen. Kamala] Harris and [Sen. Elizabeth] Warren," said John Morgan, a Florida based attorney and well-connected Biden bundler. Susan Rice, a Black woman who served as President Barack Obama's national security advisor, is also reportedly in the running, as is Rep. Karen Bass of California, who chairs the Congressional Black Caucus. "Sure, they'll find some police brutality in Orlando, and that'll be her albatross," Morgan said of Demings. "Her greatest strength is, 'I was a police chief who prosecuted the president.' But the way opposition research works, is they make your greatest strength into your greatest weakness. Look at John Kerry. He was a war hero, and look what they did to him." Morgan was referring to the infamous 2004 "Swift Boat Veterans for Truth" campaign, a conservative effort to smear the Vietnam War record of then-Sen. Kerry, the Democratic nominee. But while the Swift Boat claims were later discredited, the Orlando Police Department has long faced criticism for fostering a culture of impunity, including under Demings' leadership.
In this screenshot taken from a Senate Television webcast, Rep. Val Demings (D-FL) answers a question from a senator during impeachment proceedings in the Senate chamber at the U.S. Capitol on January 30, 2020 in Washington, DC. Senate Television via Getty Images
Demings knows this. "Looking for a negative story in a police department is like looking for a prayer at church," she wrote in a 2008 op-ed defending the Orlando police after the publication of a damning expose. But acknowledging that there are bad stories out there, and successfully defending your record in a bare-knuckle fight for the White House, are two different things. "The question is whether she'll be able to talk about her law enforcement background in a way that's going to meet the moment," said Aimee Allison, founder and president of She the People, a national organization dedicated to elevating the political power of women of color. "Any vice presidential nominee, including Val Demings, will need to communicate a policy vision on racial justice that's comprehensive, and that pushes the boundaries of traditional models," Allison said. "So I look forward to learning more about her."
Policy beyond policing
Born in 1957, during the waning years of the Jim Crow South, Demings grew up poor in Jacksonville, Florida, one of seven children in a two-room house. Her father worked as a janitor, and her mother cleaned houses. As a young police officer, Demings met Jerry Demings, and the two were married in 1988. They have three children. Jerry Demings also served as chief of police in Orlando from 1998-2002, retiring five years before his wife was named chief. Today, Jerry Demings is the mayor of Orange County, Florida, and one half of a power couple in the state's political scene. To hear Demings tell it, her career has been driven by a desire to share the opportunities she's had with others. "I know what discrimination feels like. I know what racism feels like, because I have been subjected to it," Demings said this week on CNN. "I chose jobs where I could work directly with people to help improve their quality of life. As a social worker, as a career law enforcement officer, chief of police, and now a member of Congress," she said. Demings was not available for an interview Wednesday with CNBC, her office said. But in response to a question about whether she has a policy vision for racial justice, a spokeswoman for Demings pointed to the former social worker's life story. "She had access to opportunities that she wants everyone to have, like equal access to health and mental health care, education and economic opportunities," said the spokeswoman, Kate Coyne McCoy. But this statement offers a window into another factor weighing on Demings' qualifications as a running mate for Biden: After four years in the House, Demings has yet to be the public face of major legislation, something that her chief rivals for the VP nod, Harris and Warren, have both done in the Senate. This is largely due to the mechanics of the two chambers – with only 100 senators total, each senator spends a lot more time in the spotlight than the average House member, who is one of 435. But it also reflects the fact that, save for issues related to criminal justice and policing, Demings has so far staked out relatively few defined policy positions. On issues ranging from foreign policy, veterans affairs and big business regulation, to trade, technology and health care, Demings' positions amount to little more than a few votes in the House and a few bills she co-sponsored. Lacking a full policy portfolio likely puts Demings at a disadvantage in the vice presidential search, where insiders say Biden and his team are prioritizing candidates' readiness to assume the presidency at a moment's notice.
House impeachment managers Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY), and Val Demings (D-FL), talking with U.S. Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi after the conclusion of U.S. President Donald Trump's State of the Union address in Washington,D.C., on February 4, 2020. Leah Millis | POOL via REUTERS
"The calculus that [former senator] Chris Dodd is doing, and [longtime Biden aide] Ted Kaufman, the people who are the closest to Biden, I think the main thing they're thinking is, 'ready on day one,'" said Morgan, the Florida Biden campaign bundler. "So that helps Warren and that helps Harris." But Demings still has an ace up her sleeve: Florida, her home state, is the crown jewel of the Electoral College.
The Florida factor
In the last 20 years, no presidential nominee of either party has won the White House without winning Florida's 29 electoral votes. But in those same 20 years, no one has won Florida by more than 3 percentage points, making every last vote a nominee secures in the Sunshine State both hard won and precious. If by putting Demings on the Democratic ticket alongside Biden, it could help deliver for Democrats enough of these precious Florida votes to win the state, then perhaps this alone would be worth the risks of selecting a former cop. "The battleground states like Florida that Biden could win are probably where he should put his energies," said Austin, of the University of Florida. "He needs to win back states that Democrats lost in 2016, and running with [California Sen.] Harris might not help there, where Demings could." "It doesn't matter what anyone says about Harris being a strong running mate because she's a senator, the fact is, California is won" for Democrats, said Morgan, the Florida lawyer. Hanging over all these deliberations is the knowledge that Trump won Florida in 2016 by 1.2 percentage points, just over 100,000 votes. In 2012, Obama won the state by less than 1 point. And while Demings' law enforcement career might not bode well with certain parts of the national Democratic electorate, in her home state, the actual work Demings did every day was very community focused, said Susan McManus, a professor emeritus at the University of Florida and an expert in the politics of the state. "One of the big differences between a police chief like Demings and a prosecutor like Kamala Harris is that as a police chief, you're really out among the community, doing outreach, listening to residents and helping people in very tangible ways," said McManus. "A prosecutor, on the other hand, is often making decisions from afar, and may only really interact with the community members in court."
Vice President Joe Biden talks with Sen. Kamala Harris, D-Calif., center, and her aunt, Dr. Sarala Gopalan, during swearing-in ceremony in the Capitol's Old Senate Chamber, January 03, 2016. Tom Williams | CQ-Roll Call Group | Getty Images


cnbc--2020-06-25--Joe Biden says Trump push to dismantle Obamacare would worsen coronavirus response

Former Vice President Joe Biden tore into the Trump administration 's efforts to scrap the Affordable Care Act on Thursday as the coronavirus overwhelms states that rushed to reopen their economies .
In swing state Pennsylvania , the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee said dismantling the landmark Obama administration health care law would further burden Americans recovering from Covid-19 .
The remarks come as the Trump administration faces a deadline to file a legal brief in support of a lawsuit challenging Obamacare 's constitutionality .
Democrats leveraged opposition to Republican attempts to repeal Obamacare in winning control of the House in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ same strategy this year even before the pandemic ripped through the country .
Now , Biden is tying the possible loss of health insurance for millions to Trump 's inability to contain the virus , arguing it would worsen an already inadequate federal response .
`` They would live their lives caught in a vise between Donald Trump 's twin legacies : his failure to protect the American people from the coronavirus , and his heartless crusade to take health-care protections away from American families , '' Biden said of Covid-19 patients who @ @ @ @ @ @ @ unconstitutional and complications from the pandemic get classified as a pre-existing condition .
`` Mr. President , drop the lawsuit .
Stop trying to get rid of the Affordable Care Act , '' he added .
He later said that , `` If Donald Trump refuses to end his senseless crusade against health coverage , I look forward to ending it for him . ''

Former Vice President Joe Biden tore into the Trump administration's efforts to scrap the Affordable Care Act on Thursday as the coronavirus overwhelms states that rushed to reopen their economies.
In swing state Pennsylvania, the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee said dismantling the landmark Obama administration health care law would further burden Americans recovering from Covid-19.
The remarks come as the Trump administration faces a deadline to file a legal brief in support of a lawsuit challenging Obamacare's constitutionality.
Democrats leveraged opposition to Republican attempts to repeal Obamacare in winning control of the House in 2018, and planned to deploy the same strategy this year even before the pandemic ripped through the country. Now, Biden is tying the possible loss of health insurance for millions to Trump's inability to contain the virus, arguing it would worsen an already inadequate federal response.
"They would live their lives caught in a vise between Donald Trump's twin legacies: his failure to protect the American people from the coronavirus, and his heartless crusade to take health-care protections away from American families," Biden said of Covid-19 patients who could lose coverage if Obamacare is declared unconstitutional and complications from the pandemic get classified as a pre-existing condition.
"Mr. President, drop the lawsuit. Stop trying to get rid of the Affordable Care Act," he added. He later said that, "If Donald Trump refuses to end his senseless crusade against health coverage, I look forward to ending it for him."


cnbc--2020-06-25--Supreme Court delivers win for Trump in case over speedy deportation

The US Supreme Court is seen in Washington , DC .
The Supreme Court sided 7-2 with President Donald Trump on Thursday in a case over a federal law that substantially limits the role that courts can play in reviewing deportation decisions in certain cases under a streamlined process known as `` expedited removal . ''
The opinion was authored by Justice Samuel Alito , and joined by Chief Justice John Roberts and Justices Clarence Thomas , Neil Gorsuch and Brett Kavanaugh .
Justices Stephen Breyer and Ruth Bader Ginsburg wrote separate opinions concurring with the judgment .
Justices Sonia @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ruling noted that the top court did not find the law unconstitutional in the specific case that was at issue , leaving open the possibility that a future challenge could be more successful .
The case was brought by Vijayakumar Thuraissigiam , a Sri Lankan asylum seeker who belongs to the Tamil ethnic minority group .
Thuraissigiam , who was apprehended by a Border Patrol agent in 2017 during an attempt to cross into the U.S. at the southern border , said he had been `` abducted and brutally beaten by a gang @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Immigrants may avoid expedited removal if they can show that they have a `` credible fear '' of persecution .
Two asylum officers and an immigration judge rejected Thuraissigiam 's credible fear claims , and a federal district court declined to review the matter on the basis of the expedited removal law .
But that decision was reversed on appeal by the 9th U.S .
Circuit Court of Appeals , which reasoned that the law was unconstitutional as applied to Thuraissigiam under the Constitution 's Suspension Clause , which limits the government 's @ @ @ @ @ @ @ corpus .
The appeals court also found that the law violated Thuraissigiam 's right to due process .
The Trump administration , which has pursued an aggressive anti-immigration agenda , asked the Supreme Court to reverse that ruling .
Alito wrote that Thuraissigiam 's `` argument fails because it would extend the writ of habeas corpus far beyond its scope 'when the Constitution was drafted and ratified . '
'' `` Habeas has traditionally been a means to secure release from unlawful detention , but respondent invokes the writ to achieve an entirely @ @ @ @ @ @ @ additional administrative review of his asylum claim and ultimately to obtain authorization to stay in this country , '' Alito wrote .
On due process , Alito said the constitutional right applies to `` aliens who have established connections in this country . ''
But , he wrote , Thuraissigiam `` attempted to enter the country illegally and was apprehended just 25 yards from the border . ''
`` He therefore has no entitlement to procedural rights other than those afforded by statute , '' Alito wrote .
Breyer , joined by Ginsburg @ @ @ @ @ @ @ agreed that the Suspension Clause was not violated `` in this particular case . ''
`` But we need not , and should not , go further , '' he wrote .
Sotomayor , in her dissent joined by Kagan , said the majority 's decision `` handcuffs the Judiciary 's ability to perform its constitutional duty to safeguard individual liberty and dismantles a critical component of the separation of powers . ''
`` It will leave significant exercises of executive discretion unchecked in the very circumstance where the writ 's protections 'have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
American Civil Liberties Union attorney Lee Gelernt , who represented Thuraissigiam at the Supreme Court , said in a statement that the ruling `` fails to live up to the Constitution 's bedrock principle that individuals deprived of their liberty have their day in court , and this includes asylum seekers . ''
`` This decision means that some people facing flawed deportation orders can be forcibly removed with no judicial oversight , putting their lives in grave danger , '' Gelernt said .
Representatives the Department of Homeland Security did not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The case is Department of Homeland Security v. Vijayakumar Thuraissigiam , No 19-161 .

The US Supreme Court is seen in Washington, DC.
The Supreme Court sided 7-2 with President Donald Trump on Thursday in a case over a federal law that substantially limits the role that courts can play in reviewing deportation decisions in certain cases under a streamlined process known as "expedited removal."
The opinion was authored by Justice Samuel Alito, and joined by Chief Justice John Roberts and Justices Clarence Thomas, Neil Gorsuch and Brett Kavanaugh. Justices Stephen Breyer and Ruth Bader Ginsburg wrote separate opinions concurring with the judgment. Justices Sonia Sotomayor and Elena Kagan dissented.
The ruling noted that the top court did not find the law unconstitutional in the specific case that was at issue, leaving open the possibility that a future challenge could be more successful.
The case was brought by Vijayakumar Thuraissigiam, a Sri Lankan asylum seeker who belongs to the Tamil ethnic minority group.
Thuraissigiam, who was apprehended by a Border Patrol agent in 2017 during an attempt to cross into the U.S. at the southern border, said he had been "abducted and brutally beaten by a gang of men" before he fled. Immigrants may avoid expedited removal if they can show that they have a "credible fear" of persecution.
Two asylum officers and an immigration judge rejected Thuraissigiam's credible fear claims, and a federal district court declined to review the matter on the basis of the expedited removal law.
But that decision was reversed on appeal by the 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals, which reasoned that the law was unconstitutional as applied to Thuraissigiam under the Constitution's Suspension Clause, which limits the government's ability to restrict the writ of habeas corpus. The appeals court also found that the law violated Thuraissigiam's right to due process.
The Trump administration, which has pursued an aggressive anti-immigration agenda, asked the Supreme Court to reverse that ruling.
Alito wrote that Thuraissigiam's "argument fails because it would extend the writ of habeas corpus far beyond its scope 'when the Constitution was drafted and ratified.'"
"Habeas has traditionally been a means to secure release from unlawful detention, but respondent invokes the writ to achieve an entirely different end, namely, to obtain additional administrative review of his asylum claim and ultimately to obtain authorization to stay in this country," Alito wrote.
On due process, Alito said the constitutional right applies to "aliens who have established connections in this country." But, he wrote, Thuraissigiam "attempted to enter the country illegally and was apprehended just 25 yards from the border."
"He therefore has no entitlement to procedural rights other than those afforded by statute," Alito wrote.
Breyer, joined by Ginsburg, wrote in his concurrence that he agreed that the Suspension Clause was not violated "in this particular case."
"But we need not, and should not, go further," he wrote.
Sotomayor, in her dissent joined by Kagan, said the majority's decision "handcuffs the Judiciary's ability to perform its constitutional duty to safeguard individual liberty and dismantles a critical component of the separation of powers."
"It will leave significant exercises of executive discretion unchecked in the very circumstance where the writ's protections 'have been strongest,'" she wrote.
American Civil Liberties Union attorney Lee Gelernt, who represented Thuraissigiam at the Supreme Court, said in a statement that the ruling "fails to live up to the Constitution's bedrock principle that individuals deprived of their liberty have their day in court, and this includes asylum seekers."
"This decision means that some people facing flawed deportation orders can be forcibly removed with no judicial oversight, putting their lives in grave danger," Gelernt said.
Representatives the Department of Homeland Security did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
The case is Department of Homeland Security v. Vijayakumar Thuraissigiam, No 19-161.


cnbc--2020-06-25--Here's how Biden's polling lead over Trump compares with past presidential races

In most stages of each of the four previous presidential races , the candidates were more narrowly matched in the polls .
Compare Biden 's lead over Trump with Trump 's 2016 race against Democrat Hillary Clinton , Barack Obama 's runs against Republicans Mitt Romney in 2012 and John McCain in 2008 , and Republican George W. Bush 's 2004 reelection race against Democrat John Kerry .
At this point in the cycle , no other Republican or Democratic nominee in the last four elections was as far ahead of their opponent as Biden is against Trump , according @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to RealClearPolitics .
NBC News reported Thursday that Trump is farther behind his rival in the polls than any incumbent has been since George H.W .
Bush in 1992 .
Numerous nationwide polls of voters show Biden taking a commanding , double-digit lead over President Donald Trump with less than five months to go until Election Day .
Presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden 's mostly virtual election bid so far seems to be more effective than his predecessors ' best efforts on the actual campaign trail , a CNBC polling analysis shows .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ public polling is notoriously unreliable and consistently underestimates this President and his ability to directly connect with American voters , '' Trump campaign communications director Tim Murtaugh said in a statement to CNBC .
`` Our data continues to show the President is strong against a defined Biden .
He will be re-elected in November . ''
The winner in the polls wo n't necessarily predict the winner in an election , as history shows .
Clinton led Trump in most of the final polls before the 2016 election , yet lost despite @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to eke out a polling lead over Bush on the eve of the 2004 election , according to CNBC 's analysis , yet he still lost .
Polling trend lines can also shift significantly as Election Day draws near — there 's no guarantee Biden 's lead in the summer will continue through the fall .
Different polls can vary widely in their methodologies , as well .
Some surveys may include any registered voter , for example , while others try to narrow the response to only those who say they are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , it 's noteworthy that the gap between the current candidates appears to have widened in recent weeks , even as Biden has mostly eschewed in-person campaign events due to concerns about spreading the coronavirus .
He 's made just a handful of non-virtual appearances in the past few months and , as the Trump campaign is quick to point out , he has held no press conferences in more than 80 days .
Trump 's operation , meanwhile , recently resumed holding the raucous arena rallies that defined his successful 2016 bid @ @ @ @ @ @ @ office .
But the president 's kickoff rally in Oklahoma yielded as much controversy as it did exposure to his reelection pitch , and low turnout at the Tulsa convention center marred the enthusiastic image his campaign was hoping to convey .
It 's not just a national trend : Polls show Biden is making gains in swing states , as well .
A CNBC/Change Research Poll published last week showed Biden beating Trump in Arizona , Florida , Michigan , Pennsylvania , North Carolina and Wisconsin — though some of those results @ @ @ @ @ @ @ error of plus or minus 2 percentage points .
A poll from The New York Times and Siena College released Thursday gives Biden an even wider lead in each of those battleground states .
Trump won all six of them in 2016 .
Murtaugh called that survey `` terribly flawed , '' claiming it undersampled Republicans and only looked at registered voters , rather than likely voters .
Trump on Thursday morning lashed out on Twitter at the `` phony Fake Suppression Polls '' showing him trailing Biden .

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Presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden's mostly virtual election bid so far seems to be more effective than his predecessors' best efforts on the actual campaign trail, a CNBC polling analysis shows. Numerous nationwide polls of voters show Biden taking a commanding, double-digit lead over President Donald Trump with less than five months to go until Election Day. At this point in the cycle, no other Republican or Democratic nominee in the last four elections was as far ahead of their opponent as Biden is against Trump, according to CNBC's averages of polls posted to RealClearPolitics. NBC News reported Thursday that Trump is farther behind his rival in the polls than any incumbent has been since George H.W. Bush in 1992. Compare Biden's lead over Trump with Trump's 2016 race against Democrat Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama's runs against Republicans Mitt Romney in 2012 and John McCain in 2008, and Republican George W. Bush's 2004 reelection race against Democrat John Kerry. In most stages of each of the four previous presidential races, the candidates were more narrowly matched in the polls. See for yourself:
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"As we learned in 2016, public polling is notoriously unreliable and consistently underestimates this President and his ability to directly connect with American voters," Trump campaign communications director Tim Murtaugh said in a statement to CNBC. "Our data continues to show the President is strong against a defined Biden. He will be re-elected in November." The winner in the polls won't necessarily predict the winner in an election, as history shows. Clinton led Trump in most of the final polls before the 2016 election, yet lost despite winning the popular vote. Kerry appeared to eke out a polling lead over Bush on the eve of the 2004 election, according to CNBC's analysis, yet he still lost. Polling trend lines can also shift significantly as Election Day draws near — there's no guarantee Biden's lead in the summer will continue through the fall. Different polls can vary widely in their methodologies, as well. Some surveys may include any registered voter, for example, while others try to narrow the response to only those who say they are likely to vote in November. Still, it's noteworthy that the gap between the current candidates appears to have widened in recent weeks, even as Biden has mostly eschewed in-person campaign events due to concerns about spreading the coronavirus. He's made just a handful of non-virtual appearances in the past few months and, as the Trump campaign is quick to point out, he has held no press conferences in more than 80 days.


cnbc--2020-06-25--Elizabeth Warren wants to know how Fed Chair Powell will fight racial inequality during the economic

Elizabeth Warren wants to know how Fed Chair Powell will fight racial inequality during the economic recovery

Senator Elizabeth Warren , a Democrat from Massachusetts , questions regulators during a Senate Banking Committee hearing in Washington , D.C. , U.S. , on Thursday , Feb. 14 , 2013 .
Sen. Elizabeth Warren is pressing Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on what the nation 's central bank can do to prevent racial inequality in the economic recovery , as signs suggest that the Covid-19 crisis is weighing disproportionately on communities of color .
The Massachusetts progressive released questions to Powell on Thursday that ask what specific policies the Federal Reserve and Congress can implement to avoid the inequalities @ @ @ @ @ @ @ financial crisis .
The new questions , submitted to the Fed through the Senate Banking Committee , come in response to Powell 's testimony before Congress last week on the bank 's response to the pandemic .
Jobs data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics earlier this month showed that Black unemployment rose even as white unemployment fell .
White unemployment fell to 12.4 % in May from 14.2 % in April , while Black unemployment rose to 16.8 % from 16.7 % .
Hispanic unemployment fell from 18.9 % , but @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Powell , an appointee of President Donald Trump who has led the Fed since early 2018 , has emphasized the disproportionate effect of the downturn on Black and Hispanic households and women .
He has not discussed specific remedies beyond boosting the economy more generally .
Warren competed for the Democratic presidential nomination before dropping out in March .
During her campaign , Warren antagonized the wealthy and pressed for structural reforms to address inequality .
She is reportedly being considered as presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden 's running mate .
Among @ @ @ @ @ @ @ `` Does the Federal Reserve currently consider the impact of its monetary policy decisions on racial inequality ? ''
Read more : As new data shows early signs of economic recovery , black workers are being left out Warren notes that after the last financial crisis , `` white Americans recovered from the economic damage in a faster and more robust manner than Black and Hispanic households . ''
`` Do you expect the same trends to occur with the recovery from the current recession ? ''
the question reads .
The Fed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ programs to combat the economic toll of Covid-19 , which sent the U.S. economy into recession in February .
The bank has said it is prepared to deploy as much as $ 2.3 trillion into the economy , though much of that has not yet been doled out .
Warren asked Powell if the Fed considers whether those programs and other measures `` affect different racial groups in different ways ? ''
In addition to her questions about racial inequality , Warren also asked about the soundness of the financial system .
There @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The central banker acknowledged the disparities the economic consequences of coronavirus at a press conference earlier this month .
`` Unemployment has gone up more for Hispanics , more for African Americans , and women have borne a notable share of the burden beyond their percentage in the workforce , '' Powell said .
`` That 's really , really , really unfortunate . ''
When Warren asked him about the issue at the Senate Banking Committee hearing last week , Powell said inequality was `` not a healthy feature of our @ @ @ @ @ @ @ In addition to the economic toll , the available data suggests that the coronavirus is also disproportionately afflicting minority populations , according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention .

Senator Elizabeth Warren, a Democrat from Massachusetts, questions regulators during a Senate Banking Committee hearing in Washington, D.C., U.S., on Thursday, Feb. 14, 2013.
Sen. Elizabeth Warren is pressing Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on what the nation's central bank can do to prevent racial inequality in the economic recovery, as signs suggest that the Covid-19 crisis is weighing disproportionately on communities of color.
The Massachusetts progressive released questions to Powell on Thursday that ask what specific policies the Federal Reserve and Congress can implement to avoid the inequalities that marked the comeback from the 2008 financial crisis.
The new questions, submitted to the Fed through the Senate Banking Committee, come in response to Powell's testimony before Congress last week on the bank's response to the pandemic.
Jobs data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics earlier this month showed that Black unemployment rose even as white unemployment fell. White unemployment fell to 12.4% in May from 14.2% in April, while Black unemployment rose to 16.8% from 16.7%. Hispanic unemployment fell from 18.9%, but remained extraordinarily high, at 17.6%.
Powell, an appointee of President Donald Trump who has led the Fed since early 2018, has emphasized the disproportionate effect of the downturn on Black and Hispanic households and women. He has not discussed specific remedies beyond boosting the economy more generally.
Warren competed for the Democratic presidential nomination before dropping out in March. During her campaign, Warren antagonized the wealthy and pressed for structural reforms to address inequality. She is reportedly being considered as presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden's running mate.
Among the questions that Warren asked Powell: "Does the Federal Reserve currently consider the impact of its monetary policy decisions on racial inequality?"
Read more: As new data shows early signs of economic recovery, black workers are being left out
Warren notes that after the last financial crisis, "white Americans recovered from the economic damage in a faster and more robust manner than Black and Hispanic households."
"Do you expect the same trends to occur with the recovery from the current recession?" the question reads.
The Fed has unleashed a dramatic array of emergency programs to combat the economic toll of Covid-19, which sent the U.S. economy into recession in February.
The bank has said it is prepared to deploy as much as $2.3 trillion into the economy, though much of that has not yet been doled out.
Warren asked Powell if the Fed considers whether those programs and other measures "affect different racial groups in different ways?"
In addition to her questions about racial inequality, Warren also asked about the soundness of the financial system. There is no deadline for Powell's response.
The central banker acknowledged the disparities the economic consequences of coronavirus at a press conference earlier this month.
"Unemployment has gone up more for Hispanics, more for African Americans, and women have borne a notable share of the burden beyond their percentage in the workforce," Powell said. "That's really, really, really unfortunate."
When Warren asked him about the issue at the Senate Banking Committee hearing last week, Powell said inequality was "not a healthy feature of our economy, now or ever."
In addition to the economic toll, the available data suggests that the coronavirus is also disproportionately afflicting minority populations, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.


cnbc--2020-06-25--Trump will not follow New Jersey coronavirus quarantine order, 'he's not a civilian,' White House sa

Trump will not follow New Jersey coronavirus quarantine order, 'he's not a civilian,' White House says

U.S. President Donald Trump speaks about a Trump administration plan aimed at helping to prevent suicides by U.S. veterans and other Americans , in the East Room at the White House in Washington , June 17 , 2020 .
`` The president of the United States is not a civilian , '' said White House spokesman Judd Deere , when asked about Trump 's compliance with the quarantine order given his travel Tuesday to Arizona , which has seen a rise in the rate of its Covid-19 cases .
The White House said Wednesday that President Donald Trump will not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Jersey this weekend despite a new order by the governor requiring visitors who have been in states with high numbers of coronavirus cases to quarantine for 14 days .
`` Anyone who is in close proximity to him , including staff , guests , and press are tested for COVID-19 and confirmed to be negative , '' Deere said in a statement .
`` With regard to Arizona , the White House followed it 's COVID mitigation plan to ensure the President did not come into contact with anyone who was symptomatic or @ @ @ @ @ @ @ spokesman added .
`` Anyone traveling in support of the president this weekend will be closely monitored for symptoms and tested for COVID and therefore pose little to no risk to the local populations . ''
Trump is the commander in chief of the U.S. military , but he has never been a member of the military .
The president is expected to travel this weekend to his golf club in Bedminster , New Jersey .
In past visits to the club , he has flown on Air Force One to airports in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Phil Murphy , along with New York Gov .
Andrew Cuomo and Connecticut Gov .
Ned Lamont , on Wednesday announced that visitors from states with large numbers of coronavirus cases would be required to quarantine for two weeks , or face fines .
`` This is the smart thing to do .
We have taken our people ... through hell and back , '' Murphy told reporters during a conference call Wednesday .
A spokesman for Murphy declined to comment on the White House 's statement about Trump 's visit to @ @ @ @

U.S. President Donald Trump speaks about a Trump administration plan aimed at helping to prevent suicides by U.S. veterans and other Americans, in the East Room at the White House in Washington, June 17, 2020.
"The president of the United States is not a civilian," said White House spokesman Judd Deere, when asked about Trump's compliance with the quarantine order given his travel Tuesday to Arizona, which has seen a rise in the rate of its Covid-19 cases.
The White House said Wednesday that President Donald Trump will not change his plan to travel to New Jersey this weekend despite a new order by the governor requiring visitors who have been in states with high numbers of coronavirus cases to quarantine for 14 days.
"Anyone who is in close proximity to him, including staff, guests, and press are tested for COVID-19 and confirmed to be negative," Deere said in a statement.
"With regard to Arizona, the White House followed it's COVID mitigation plan to ensure the President did not come into contact with anyone who was symptomatic or had not been tested," the spokesman added.
"Anyone traveling in support of the president this weekend will be closely monitored for symptoms and tested for COVID and therefore pose little to no risk to the local populations."
Trump is the commander in chief of the U.S. military, but he has never been a member of the military.
The president is expected to travel this weekend to his golf club in Bedminster, New Jersey. In past visits to the club, he has flown on Air Force One to airports in Newark and Morristown.
New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy, along with New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo and Connecticut Gov. Ned Lamont, on Wednesday announced that visitors from states with large numbers of coronavirus cases would be required to quarantine for two weeks, or face fines.
"This is the smart thing to do. We have taken our people ... through hell and back," Murphy told reporters during a conference call Wednesday.
A spokesman for Murphy declined to comment on the White House's statement about Trump's visit to the Garden State.


cnbc--2020-06-25--Elizabeth Warren demands answers from private equity industry on coronavirus response, lobbying

Wearing a face mask to reduce the chance of transmission of the novel coronavirus , Sen. Elizabeth Warren ( D-MA ) arrives at the U.S. Capitol for a vote May 18 , 2020 in Washington , DC .
Sen. Elizabeth Warren has written to the CEO of private equity lobbying group the American Investment Council demanding more information about the organization 's efforts related to the federal government 's multitrillion-dollar coronavirus relief law .
In a letter to Andrew Maloney , which was delivered Wednesday and obtained by CNBC , Warren demanded information about the group 's communication with the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ including Jared Kushner , whose family real estate business has financial ties to private equity firm Apollo Global Management .
She also questioned how the industry plans to protect the employees of the companies in which they invest .
`` I am particularly concerned that the private equity industry you represent may exploit this crisis to continue extracting value out of struggling companies , lining the pockets of wealthy firms at the expense of workers and communities struggling to respond to this pandemic across the country , '' wrote the Massachusetts Democrat .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ a spokesperson , Maloney said , `` Senator Warren 's home state of Massachusetts is a booming private equity success story . ''
`` Our industry employs over 240 [ thousand ] workers there , invested over $ 31 billion in 2019 alone , and recently delivered over 18 % returns for the local pension program , '' he noted .
`` I will respond to Senator Warren 's letter and we will also soon release a new report that shows how private equity is meaningfully investing billions of dollars in states and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ support millions of jobs and help the economy rebound from the COVID-19 downturn . ''
Warren 's letter comes as the coronavirus recession has brought the role of private equity in the economy back into the spotlight .
Several companies that were acquired through leveraged buyouts , such as Neiman Marcus and J .
Crew , have fallen into bankruptcy under the pressure of the economic slowdown .
More are expected .
Meantime , private equity firms sitting on a record $ 1.5 trillion in cash have been scouting for deals in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The private equity industry joined scores of others in pushing through lobbying efforts for federal aid from the CARES Act to buffer their businesses as the coronavirus pandemic devastated the economy .
While private equity firms pushed for small business loans offered as part of the program , those efforts were largely rebuffed with `` affiliate rules '' restricting cash for companies with outside investors .

Wearing a face mask to reduce the chance of transmission of the novel coronavirus, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) arrives at the U.S. Capitol for a vote May 18, 2020 in Washington, DC.
Sen. Elizabeth Warren has written to the CEO of private equity lobbying group the American Investment Council demanding more information about the organization's efforts related to the federal government's multitrillion-dollar coronavirus relief law.
In a letter to Andrew Maloney, which was delivered Wednesday and obtained by CNBC, Warren demanded information about the group's communication with the Treasury Department and White House officials, including Jared Kushner, whose family real estate business has financial ties to private equity firm Apollo Global Management.
She also questioned how the industry plans to protect the employees of the companies in which they invest.
"I am particularly concerned that the private equity industry you represent may exploit this crisis to continue extracting value out of struggling companies, lining the pockets of wealthy firms at the expense of workers and communities struggling to respond to this pandemic across the country," wrote the Massachusetts Democrat.
In a statement given to CNBC through a spokesperson, Maloney said, "Senator Warren's home state of Massachusetts is a booming private equity success story."
"Our industry employs over 240 [thousand] workers there, invested over $31 billion in 2019 alone, and recently delivered over 18% returns for the local pension program," he noted.
"I will respond to Senator Warren's letter and we will also soon release a new report that shows how private equity is meaningfully investing billions of dollars in states and congressional districts across America. These investments support millions of jobs and help the economy rebound from the COVID-19 downturn."
Warren's letter comes as the coronavirus recession has brought the role of private equity in the economy back into the spotlight. Several companies that were acquired through leveraged buyouts, such as Neiman Marcus and J. Crew, have fallen into bankruptcy under the pressure of the economic slowdown. More are expected.
Meantime, private equity firms sitting on a record $1.5 trillion in cash have been scouting for deals in the market as valuations have been clipped.
The private equity industry joined scores of others in pushing through lobbying efforts for federal aid from the CARES Act to buffer their businesses as the coronavirus pandemic devastated the economy. While private equity firms pushed for small business loans offered as part of the program, those efforts were largely rebuffed with "affiliate rules" restricting cash for companies with outside investors.


cnbc--2020-06-26--Trump administration asks Supreme Court to strike down Obamacare amid pandemic, recession

The Trump administration is asking the Supreme Court to wipe out Obamacare , arguing that the individual mandate is unconstitutional and that the rest of the law must be struck down with it .
The late-night brief , filed Thursday in the middle of the coronavirus pandemic , carries major implications for the presidential election .
If the justices agree , it would cost an estimated 20 million Americans their insurance coverage and nullify protections for pre-existing conditions .
The Trump administration 's brief comes as the U.S. has recorded more than 120,000 deaths from COVID-19 , with nearly 2.5 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the nation hit a new record for the highest daily total of new infections reported with more than 45,500 .
For the roughly 25 million people out of work and collecting jobless benefits , the ACA 's marketplaces and Medicaid expansion provide avenues to gain subsidized health insurance with consumer protections .
Trump campaigned in 2016 on repealing the ACA but fell just short in Congress in 2017 .
His legal position is consistent with his determination to undo President Barack Obama 's achievements .
Health care is a top issue for voters @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Joe Biden — the vice president when Obamacare , also known as the Affordable Care Act , was signed into law — has made it a high priority to protect and enhance it if elected .
In the brief , U.S .
Solicitor General Noel Francisco and other Justice Department officials sided with Texas in a case led by Republican attorneys general , arguing that the requirement for people to buy insurance is no longer valid after Congress scrapped the penalty for non-compliance in 2017 .
The Justice Department added : `` The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rest of the Act . ''
The brief includes a section pointedly arguing that the Affordable Care Act 's pre-existing condition rules must be overturned as well .
Those rules forbid insurers from turning away customers or charging them more on the basis of factors like age , gender and health status .
The position contradicts Trump 's insistence that he will protect people with pre-existing conditions .

Participants in the Medicare for All Rally in Los Angeles California on February 4, 2017.
The Trump administration is asking the Supreme Court to wipe out Obamacare, arguing that the individual mandate is unconstitutional and that the rest of the law must be struck down with it.
The late-night brief, filed Thursday in the middle of the coronavirus pandemic, carries major implications for the presidential election. If the justices agree, it would cost an estimated 20 million Americans their insurance coverage and nullify protections for pre-existing conditions.
The Trump administration's brief comes as the U.S. has recorded more than 120,000 deaths from COVID-19, with nearly 2.5 million confirmed cases. On Wednesday, the nation hit a new record for the highest daily total of new infections reported with more than 45,500.
For the roughly 25 million people out of work and collecting jobless benefits, the ACA's marketplaces and Medicaid expansion provide avenues to gain subsidized health insurance with consumer protections.
Trump campaigned in 2016 on repealing the ACA but fell just short in Congress in 2017. His legal position is consistent with his determination to undo President Barack Obama's achievements.
Health care is a top issue for voters in surveys, and presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden — the vice president when Obamacare, also known as the Affordable Care Act, was signed into law — has made it a high priority to protect and enhance it if elected.
In the brief, U.S. Solicitor General Noel Francisco and other Justice Department officials sided with Texas in a case led by Republican attorneys general, arguing that the requirement for people to buy insurance is no longer valid after Congress scrapped the penalty for non-compliance in 2017.
The Justice Department added: "The individual mandate is not severable from the rest of the Act."
The brief includes a section pointedly arguing that the Affordable Care Act's pre-existing condition rules must be overturned as well. Those rules forbid insurers from turning away customers or charging them more on the basis of factors like age, gender and health status. The position contradicts Trump's insistence that he will protect people with pre-existing conditions.


cnbc--2020-06-26--Coronavirus mortgage bailouts suddenly swell as homeowners face new struggles

After declining for three weeks , the number of borrowers delaying their monthly mortgage payments due to the coronavirus rose sharply once again .
The number of active forbearance plans rose by 79,000 in the past week , erasing roughly half of the improvement seen since the peak of May 22 , according to Black Knight , a mortgage data and technology firm .
By comparison , the number of borrowers in forbearance plans fell by 57,000 the previous week .
Increases happened every day for the past five business days .
As of Tuesday , 4.68 million homeowners were @ @ @ @ @ @ @ delay their mortgage payments for at least three months .
This represents 8.8 % of all active mortgages , up from 8.7 % last week .
Together , they represent just over $ 1 trillion in unpaid principal .
The mortgage bailout program , part of the CARES Act , which President Donald Trump signed into law in March , allows borrowers to miss monthly payments for at least three months and potentially up to a year .
Those payments can be remitted either in repayment plans , loan modifications , or when @ @ @ @ @ @ @ refinanced .
While some borrowers who initially asked for the mortgage bailouts in March and April ended up making their monthly payments , the vast majority now are not .
There were expectations that the mortgage bailout numbers would improve as the economy reopened and job losses slowed .
But this surge is a red flag to the market that homeowners are still struggling as coronavirus cases continue to increase in several states .
By loan type , 6.9 % of all Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac-backed mortgages and 12.5 % of all @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Another 9.6 % of loans in private label securities or banks ' portfolios are also in forbearance .
The volumes rose across all types of loans but were sharpest for FHA/VA loans .
FHA offers low down payment loans to borrowers with lower credit scores .
Such loans are popular among first-time homebuyers .
The number of FHA/VA borrowers in forbearance plans increased by 42,000 last week , while government-sponsored enterprise and nonagency loan forbearances increased by 25,000 and 12,000 , respectively .
At today 's level , mortgage servicers may need @ @ @ @ @ @ @ per month to holders of government-backed mortgage securities on Covid-19-related forbearances .
That is in addition to up to $ 1.4 billion in tax and insurance payments they must make on behalf of borrowers .

As of Tuesday, 4.68 million homeowners were in forbearance plans, allowing them to delay their mortgage payments for at least three months. This represents 8.8% of all active mortgages, up from 8.7% last week. Together, they represent just over $1 trillion in unpaid principal.
The number of active forbearance plans rose by 79,000 in the past week, erasing roughly half of the improvement seen since the peak of May 22, according to Black Knight, a mortgage data and technology firm. By comparison, the number of borrowers in forbearance plans fell by 57,000 the previous week. Increases happened every day for the past five business days.
After declining for three weeks, the number of borrowers delaying their monthly mortgage payments due to the coronavirus rose sharply once again.
The mortgage bailout program, part of the CARES Act, which President Donald Trump signed into law in March, allows borrowers to miss monthly payments for at least three months and potentially up to a year. Those payments can be remitted either in repayment plans, loan modifications, or when the home is sold or the mortgage refinanced.
While some borrowers who initially asked for the mortgage bailouts in March and April ended up making their monthly payments, the vast majority now are not. There were expectations that the mortgage bailout numbers would improve as the economy reopened and job losses slowed. But this surge is a red flag to the market that homeowners are still struggling as coronavirus cases continue to increase in several states.
By loan type, 6.9% of all Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac-backed mortgages and 12.5% of all FHA/VA loans are currently in forbearance plans. Another 9.6% of loans in private label securities or banks' portfolios are also in forbearance.
The volumes rose across all types of loans but were sharpest for FHA/VA loans. FHA offers low down payment loans to borrowers with lower credit scores. Such loans are popular among first-time homebuyers. The number of FHA/VA borrowers in forbearance plans increased by 42,000 last week, while government-sponsored enterprise and nonagency loan forbearances increased by 25,000 and 12,000, respectively.
At today's level, mortgage servicers may need to advance up to $3.5 billion per month to holders of government-backed mortgage securities on Covid-19-related forbearances. That is in addition to up to $1.4 billion in tax and insurance payments they must make on behalf of borrowers.