csmonitor--2020-10-05--How a president and pandemic intertwined

But when a future historian addresses how the wealthiest nation on earth bungled its response to the coronavirus they could do worse than use the president ’ s personal experience as a lens through which to view what went wrong – and , perhaps , what went right .
As a matter of policy , the U.S. government would not want adversaries to know too much if a president is physically weakened .
As a matter of politics , the current administration would want to project an image of as much strength as possible with the election weeks away .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ the state of presidential health in real time , says John Fortier , director of government studies at the Bipartisan Policy Center .
But realistically this transparency can only go so far .
Much is still based on trust – and trust in Trump communications among many reporters remains low , given the administration ’ s past misstatements .
Throughout U.S. history presidents have downplayed ill health , sometimes to the point of concealing debilitating issues from the public .
Woodrow Wilson suffered a severe stroke in 1919 and was virtually incapacitated for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Ronald Reagan was in much worse shape following an assassination attempt in 1981 than voters realized at the time .
President Donald Trump ’ s handling of his coronavirus diagnosis has been characterized by a reluctance to release key facts , an aggressive approach to new treatments , public appearances meant to convey vigor , and a relentless insistence that things are on the upswing and normality is only a short distance away .
In other words , it is very like the way President Trump has dealt with the coronavirus pandemic as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the United States some eight months ago .
When a future historian addresses how the wealthiest nation on earth bungled its response to the coronavirus they could do worse then use the president ’ s personal experience as a lens through which to view what went wrong – and , perhaps , what went right .
In his desire to win reelection the country ’ s chief executive almost seemed to try to will the virus away , downplaying its effects while focusing on reopening the economy .
But that approach has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s an outcome that ’ s almost Shakespearean , says Ryan Enos , a professor of government at Harvard University in Cambridge , Massachusetts .
The COVID-19 virus has affected not just the U.S. , but China and the rich nations of Europe .
The most successful efforts so far have been collective .
“ In many ways , it was just supreme hubris by Trump , ” says Dr. Enos .
In fact , Mr. Trump has also sought to accelerate a push by U.S. companies to develop vaccines .
Yet @ @ @ @ @ @ @ face masks and talked publicly about the virus fading quickly away .
On Monday the state of the president ’ s health remained unclear .
In mid-afternoon he announced via Twitter that he would be leaving Walter Reed Medical Center in the evening , and was “ feeling really good.
” Doctors not associated with the case , however , felt his departure might be premature , since Mr. Trump appears to have experienced something more than mild symptoms .
There is clearly a tension between the picture of vitality that Mr. Trump @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the details of his health challenges .
White House physician Sean Conley only confirmed reports that the president had received supplemental oxygen after news of the incidents leaked out through the press .
On Sunday Dr. Conley said he was trying to reflect an “ upbeat attitude ” and “ it came off as if we were trying to hide something , which wasn ’ t necessarily true.
” Meanwhile , the virus continued to spread through the West Wing .
Press Secretary Kayleigh McEnany tested positive for the coronavirus , as did @ @ @ @ @ @ @ history presidents have often downplayed ill health , sometimes to the point of concealing debilitating issues from the public .
Woodrow Wilson suffered a severe stroke in 1919 and was virtually incapacitated for the remainder of his second term .
Ronald Reagan was in much worse shape following an assassination attempt in 1981 than voters realized at the time .
Now , because of increased media coverage and a norm that the public be kept at least somewhat informed , much more is known about the state of presidential health in real time @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Government Studies at the Bipartisan Policy Center .
But realistically this transparency can only go so far .
The White House press pool doesn ’ t go in to see presidential blood pressure readings .
Much is still based on trust – and trust in Trump communications among many reporters remains low , given the administration ’ s past misstatements .
“ I don ’ t think we ’ re going to get too much further behind the curtain , ” says Mr. Fortier .
As a matter of policy , the U.S. @ @ @ @ @ @ @ too much if a president is physically weakened .
As a matter of politics , the current administration – like probably any – would want to project an image of as much strength as possible with the election only weeks away .
It ’ s not certain the Trump ’ s coronavirus diagnosis will have a significant effect on the political race .
In today ’ s polarized age most voters decided long ago whether they ’ d reelect the current president , and polls have been remarkably stable despite the roller coaster @ @ @ @ @ @ @ small amount of undecideds out there , I don ’ t think this will affect them , ” says Vince Galko , a Republican strategist at the Harrisburg , Pennsylvania , office of Mercury , a public strategy firm .
However , the spread of the virus through the White House may refocus attention on the pandemic per se , and the way the administration has dealt with it .
Polls show that ’ s one of Trump ’ s worst issues .
“ I think that this ... has thrown the Trump @ @ @ @ @ @ @ strategy will be questioned and scrutinized , ” says Andrew Feldman , a Democratic consultant at Feldman Strategies .
The Trump campaign hopes the Amy Coney Barrett Supreme Court nomination will energize their supporters in the crucial last days before Nov. 3 .
Mr. Trump and his surrogates have continued to push “ law and order ” messages designed to win back white suburbanites , particularly women , many of whom remain worried about civic unrest in the wake of mostly peaceful Black Lives Matter protests .
But in the end , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a pandemic that has taken the lives of some 209,000 Americans , and continues to spread throughout the U.S. and upend daily life .
“ As long as the coronavirus continues to go around like it has , it ’ s hard to change the subject , ” says Democratic public affairs consultant Mathew Littman , a former speechwriter for Joe Biden .
“ And now that [ Trump ] has it , Kayleigh has it – how do you change it ?
You can ’ t. ” But it ’ s also @ @ @ @ @ @ @ figure , perhaps more credible now due to his real experience with the virus .
His tweet announcing his release from the hospital , in which says , “ Don ’ t be afraid of Covid .
Don ’ t let it dominate your life , ” hints at the way the Trump campaign might end up framing the subject .
In the key swing state of Wisconsin at least some voters interviewed in Milwaukee agree that Mr. Trump ’ s coronavirus diagnosis could actually make him a positive example for the nation @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is only good because I think he ’ s going to get better and recover .
And it ’ s going to show that people [ can ] recover , ” says Marilyn Doermann , a nurse from Menomonee Falls .
Ms. Doermann says Mr. Trump has handled the virus response well .
She voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016 but says she plans on voting to reelect Mr. Trump this November .
Ceasar Gomez , a self-employed Milwaukee resident sporting a “ Latinos for Trump ” hat on Sunday afternoon , agreed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s pandemic response was skillful .
“ I think he ’ s doing good , both with his case and nationwide .
What can you do ?
” said Mr. Gomez , who didn ’ t vote in 2016 but plans on supporting Mr. Trump this year .
Mr. Gomez , who said he doesn ’ t generally associate with any political party , was wearing a mask and taking other precautions .
Despite Mr. Trump ’ s inconsistency wearing masks , Mr. Gomez still supports the president , and said he trusts @ @ @ @ @ @ @ effort as possible protecting Mr. Trump .
“ He has worn masks .
It ’ s not like he ’ s never worn a mask , ” says Mr. Gomez .
For some other Wisconsin residents , the president ’ s response to the pandemic has fallen short of what would be expected of a world leader .
“ I think he ’ s been terrible since Day 1 on this virus , downplaying it from Day 1 .
And now he ’ s got it .
It ’ s just poetic justice @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , a retired UAW worker from Racine .
Mr. Petrovic , an independent who usually votes for Democrats , voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016 and plans on voting for Joe Biden in November .
“ He didn ’ t take it seriously , ” Nick Puibello , a project manager at a bank who considers himself a moderate Democrat , said of Mr. Trump ’ s pandemic response .
After trying to play down the virus threat in general , “ he tried to play down his own infection , ” says @ @ @ @ @ @ @ voted for Mrs. Clinton in 2016 and plans on voting for Mr. Biden next month .
America ’ s response to the pandemic has been so wrapped around the president ’ s persona , what he is and is not doing , how he thinks and talks about it , that his diagnosis has become a focal point of national discussion .
Many members of the public feel like the president has been irresponsible in his messaging about pandemic ’ s risks and how to prevent them , says Joshua Tucker , a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Mr. Trump has belittled Joe Biden for wearing masks , held large rallies without social distancing , and admitted to journalist Bob Woodward that he knowingly downplayed the seriousness of the pandemic in order to maintain calm .
These cues matter to his supporters .
Consider the group of Trump loyalists who gathered outside Walter Reed Medical Center , many of whom waved flags and held signs – and didn ’ t wear masks .
It ’ s possible the coronavirus might now change President Trump .
He would take a more @ @ @ @ @ @ @ having seen up close the costs .
But that ’ s the sort of reversal for Trump that might take a big change in character , says Dr. Tucker .
“ It really would take a mea culpa here .
But again , it ’ s a mea culpa that could save lives , ” he says .
This article was written by Peter Grier with reporting by staff writers Nick Roll in Milwaukee , Story Hinckley in Washington , and Noah Robertson in Alexandria , Virginia .

But when a future historian addresses how the wealthiest nation on earth bungled its response to the coronavirus they could do worse than use the president’s personal experience as a lens through which to view what went wrong – and, perhaps, what went right.
As a matter of policy, the U.S. government would not want adversaries to know too much if a president is physically weakened. As a matter of politics, the current administration would want to project an image of as much strength as possible with the election weeks away.
The president’s handling of his own health struggle has rapidly become an illustration of his government’s approach to managing a national crisis. How will history view it?
Now, much more is known about the state of presidential health in real time, says John Fortier, director of government studies at the Bipartisan Policy Center. But realistically this transparency can only go so far. Much is still based on trust – and trust in Trump communications among many reporters remains low, given the administration’s past misstatements.
Throughout U.S. history presidents have downplayed ill health, sometimes to the point of concealing debilitating issues from the public. Woodrow Wilson suffered a severe stroke in 1919 and was virtually incapacitated for the remainder of his second term. Ronald Reagan was in much worse shape following an assassination attempt in 1981 than voters realized at the time.
President Donald Trump’s handling of his coronavirus diagnosis has been characterized by a reluctance to release key facts, an aggressive approach to new treatments, public appearances meant to convey vigor, and a relentless insistence that things are on the upswing and normality is only a short distance away.
In other words, it is very like the way President Trump has dealt with the coronavirus pandemic as a whole since it first took hold in the United States some eight months ago.
When a future historian addresses how the wealthiest nation on earth bungled its response to the coronavirus they could do worse than use the president’s personal experience as a lens through which to view what went wrong – and, perhaps, what went right.
Why We Wrote This The president’s handling of his own health struggle has rapidly become an illustration of his government’s approach to managing a national crisis. How will history view it?
In his desire to win reelection the country’s chief executive almost seemed to try to will the virus away, downplaying its effects while focusing on reopening the economy. But that approach has now affected the president personally.
It’s an outcome that’s almost Shakespearean, says Ryan Enos, a professor of government at Harvard University in Cambridge, Massachusetts. The COVID-19 virus has affected not just the U.S., but China and the rich nations of Europe. The most successful efforts so far have been collective.
“In many ways, it was just supreme hubris by Trump,” says Dr. Enos.
In fact, Mr. Trump has also sought to accelerate a push by U.S. companies to develop vaccines. Yet he has repeatedly scorned the use of face masks and talked publicly about the virus fading quickly away.
On Monday the state of the president’s health remained unclear. In mid-afternoon he announced via Twitter that he would be leaving Walter Reed Medical Center in the evening, and was “feeling really good.” Doctors not associated with the case, however, felt his departure might be premature, since Mr. Trump appears to have experienced something more than mild symptoms.
There is clearly a tension between the picture of vitality that Mr. Trump tries to cultivate and accurate reports about the details of his health challenges. White House physician Sean Conley only confirmed reports that the president had received supplemental oxygen after news of the incidents leaked out through the press. On Sunday Dr. Conley said he was trying to reflect an “upbeat attitude” and “it came off as if we were trying to hide something, which wasn’t necessarily true.”
Meanwhile, the virus continued to spread through the West Wing. Press Secretary Kayleigh McEnany tested positive for the coronavirus, as did two of her aides.
Presidents often downplay illness
Throughout U.S. history presidents have often downplayed ill health, sometimes to the point of concealing debilitating issues from the public. Woodrow Wilson suffered a severe stroke in 1919 and was virtually incapacitated for the remainder of his second term. Ronald Reagan was in much worse shape following an assassination attempt in 1981 than voters realized at the time.
Now, because of increased media coverage and a norm that the public be kept at least somewhat informed, much more is known about the state of presidential health in real time, says John Fortier, Director of Government Studies at the Bipartisan Policy Center.
But realistically this transparency can only go so far. The White House press pool doesn’t go in to see presidential blood pressure readings. Much is still based on trust – and trust in Trump communications among many reporters remains low, given the administration’s past misstatements.
“I don’t think we’re going to get too much further behind the curtain,” says Mr. Fortier.
As a matter of policy, the U.S. government would not want adversaries to know too much if a president is physically weakened. As a matter of politics, the current administration – like probably any – would want to project an image of as much strength as possible with the election only weeks away.
It’s not certain the Trump’s coronavirus diagnosis will have a significant effect on the political race. In today’s polarized age most voters decided long ago whether they’d reelect the current president, and polls have been remarkably stable despite the roller coaster ride of 2020 news.
“The small amount of undecideds out there, I don’t think this will affect them,” says Vince Galko, a Republican strategist at the Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, office of Mercury, a public strategy firm.
However, the spread of the virus through the White House may refocus attention on the pandemic per se, and the way the administration has dealt with it. Polls show that’s one of Trump’s worst issues.
“I think that this ... has thrown the Trump campaign into complete chaos. Their whole strategy will be questioned and scrutinized,” says Andrew Feldman, a Democratic consultant at Feldman Strategies.
The Trump campaign hopes the Amy Coney Barrett Supreme Court nomination will energize their supporters in the crucial last days before Nov. 3. Mr. Trump and his surrogates have continued to push “law and order” messages designed to win back white suburbanites, particularly women, many of whom remain worried about civic unrest in the wake of mostly peaceful Black Lives Matter protests.
But in the end, the election was always going to be about a pandemic that has taken the lives of some 209,000 Americans, and continues to spread throughout the U.S. and upend daily life.
“As long as the coronavirus continues to go around like it has, it’s hard to change the subject,” says Democratic public affairs consultant Mathew Littman, a former speechwriter for Joe Biden. “And now that [Trump] has it, Kayleigh has it – how do you change it? You can’t.”
But it’s also possible that Trump emerges as a sympathetic figure, perhaps more credible now due to his real experience with the virus. His tweet announcing his release from the hospital, in which says, “Don’t be afraid of Covid. Don’t let it dominate your life,” hints at the way the Trump campaign might end up framing the subject.
The view from Milwaukee
In the key swing state of Wisconsin at least some voters interviewed in Milwaukee agree that Mr. Trump’s coronavirus diagnosis could actually make him a positive example for the nation.
“I think him getting it is only good because I think he’s going to get better and recover. And it’s going to show that people [can] recover,” says Marilyn Doermann, a nurse from Menomonee Falls.
Ms. Doermann says Mr. Trump has handled the virus response well. She voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016 but says she plans on voting to reelect Mr. Trump this November.
Ceasar Gomez, a self-employed Milwaukee resident sporting a “Latinos for Trump” hat on Sunday afternoon, agreed with the idea that the president’s pandemic response was skillful.
“I think he’s doing good, both with his case and nationwide. What can you do?” said Mr. Gomez, who didn’t vote in 2016 but plans on supporting Mr. Trump this year.
Mr. Gomez, who said he doesn’t generally associate with any political party, was wearing a mask and taking other precautions. Despite Mr. Trump’s inconsistency wearing masks, Mr. Gomez still supports the president, and said he trusts that the government made as good an effort as possible protecting Mr. Trump.
“He has worn masks. It’s not like he’s never worn a mask,” says Mr. Gomez.
For some other Wisconsin residents, the president’s response to the pandemic has fallen short of what would be expected of a world leader.
“I think he’s been terrible since Day 1 on this virus, downplaying it from Day 1. And now he’s got it. It’s just poetic justice to me,” says Dennis Petrovic, a retired UAW worker from Racine.
Mr. Petrovic, an independent who usually votes for Democrats, voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016 and plans on voting for Joe Biden in November.
“He didn’t take it seriously,” Nick Puibello, a project manager at a bank who considers himself a moderate Democrat, said of Mr. Trump’s pandemic response.
After trying to play down the virus threat in general, “he tried to play down his own infection,” says Mr. Puibello, a Milwaukee resident who voted for Mrs. Clinton in 2016 and plans on voting for Mr. Biden next month.
America’s response to the pandemic has been so wrapped around the president’s persona, what he is and is not doing, how he thinks and talks about it, that his diagnosis has become a focal point of national discussion.
Many members of the public feel like the president has been irresponsible in his messaging about pandemic’s risks and how to prevent them, says Joshua Tucker, a professor of government at New York University. Mr. Trump has belittled Joe Biden for wearing masks, held large rallies without social distancing, and admitted to journalist Bob Woodward that he knowingly downplayed the seriousness of the pandemic in order to maintain calm.
These cues matter to his supporters. Consider the group of Trump loyalists who gathered outside Walter Reed Medical Center, many of whom waved flags and held signs – and didn’t wear masks.
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It’s possible the coronavirus might now change President Trump. He would take a more active role in fighting the virus, having seen up close the costs. But that’s the sort of reversal for Trump that might take a big change in character, says Dr. Tucker. “It really would take a mea culpa here. But again, it’s a mea culpa that could save lives,” he says.
This article was written by Peter Grier with reporting by staff writers Nick Roll in Milwaukee, Story Hinckley in Washington, and Noah Robertson in Alexandria, Virginia.


csmonitor--2020-10-05--EU, US oil giants take diverging paths on climate

“ To make that pivot [ to green energy ] takes a lot of investment and a lot of equipment , ” Dr. Yergin says .
“ From that point of view , 2050 is not that far away.
” Neither path guarantees success .
Following the crash of oil prices this year , European fossil fuel companies may not have enough cash on hand to effectively shift to renewables .
The U.S. approach relies on technology that has yet to be proven to work at scale .
“ There ’ s never been such a wide disparity in strategy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ reflects where they live , ” says oil historian Daniel Yergin .
The result is a bifurcation between U.S. and European companies over the future of a $ 5 trillion industry .
But this zeal isn ’ t shared by U.S. oil companies .
Far from giving up on hydrocarbons , they are doubling down on efforts to extract oil and gas while pursuing technologies to capture and store carbon emissions .
BP announced recently that it would cut its fossil fuel production by up to 40 % over the next decade .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ companies promising drastic reductions in greenhouse gas emissions and steep investments in renewable energy , with a goal of carbon neutrality by 2050 .
When BP recently unveiled a strategic makeover for an era of rising alarm over climate change , environmentalists were on guard for greenwashing by a global oil titan .
But BP ’ s announcement that it would increase its renewable energy assets tenfold – and slash oil and gas output by up to 40 % over a decade – gave even its sternest critics reason to cheer .
Greenpeace @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s London offices with solar panels and oil barrels to protest its climate policy , called it a “ credible and encouraging start.
” The British company is one of several European oil and gas companies that have pledged to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 .
They are racing to embrace renewable sources of energy for a future of smart grids , electric cars , and digital commerce .
That zeal isn ’ t shared by U.S. oil companies , though .
Far from giving up on hydrocarbons , they are doubling @ @ @ @ @ @ @ demand will be back , even as the deleterious effects of their emissions attenuate .
The result is a rift between U.S. and European companies over the future of a $ 5 trillion industry that powers a world beset by climatic crises .
“ There ’ s never been such a wide disparity in strategy between major oil companies , and it reflects where they live , ” says Daniel Yergin , an oil historian and author of a new book , “ The New Map : Energy , Climate , and the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ set ambitious goals to decarbonize their economies and are asking oil companies , some of which are state-owned , to develop cleaner forms of energy .
That political consensus is underpinned by public concern over climate change and environmental degradation ; pension funds are also pushing oil companies to account for climate impacts .
“ All companies pay attention to their shareholders .
But European companies pay attention to their stakeholders , ” says Kevin Book , director of research at ClearView Energy Partners , a Washington-based consultancy .
“ To be a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ people and European values.
” This month , the European Commission presented a plan for emissions cuts of 55 % by 2030 , compared to 1990 levels , a target that would require massive investments in low-carbon energy production .
The 27-member European Union aims to be carbon neutral by midcentury .
( Britain , which left on Jan. 31 , has set the same goal . )
By contrast , the Trump administration has belittled climate scientists , rejected the Paris Agreement on emissions cuts , and rolled back regulations on oil @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Public opinion and government policy aren ’ t the only reasons why companies like BP , France ’ s Total , and Royal Dutch Shell are trying to reinvent themselves as clean energy providers .
They are also making a virtue out of necessity , having written off billions of dollars in investments after oil prices plunged from nearly $ 70 a barrel in January to briefly going negative in April .
The risk they face going forward is that investors in Europe may see loss-making oil companies as dinosaurs who left it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Goldwyn , a former State Department official for international energy affairs .
“ It ’ s an economic reality and a survival strategy , ” he says .
That reality looks different in Houston , the U.S. oil capital .
Companies like ExxonMobil and Chevron Corp. also anticipate greater scrutiny of their own emissions and that of the products they sell , say analysts .
But they ’ re not about to reinvent a business model that goes back to John Rockefeller and has been reinvigorated by shale production .
Instead they will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ while investing in new technologies to capture and store carbon .
“ For the U.S. majors , the goal is to reduce emissions , not to promote renewables , ” says Mr. Goldwyn .
In July , Chevron CEO Mike Wirth assured the Texas Oil & Gas Association that a global transition toward cleaner forms of energy wasn ’ t an existential threat .
“ We ’ ll find ways to make oil and gas more efficient , more environmentally benign , ” he said .
Unlike Europe , which imports 75 % @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ample domestic reserves .
And the vertiginous market crash – prices are now around $ 40 a barrel – has wiped out smaller players , squeezed speculators , and created opportunities .
In July , Chevron agreed to pay $ 4 billion for Noble Energy , which produces natural gas in Israeli waters in addition to shale assets in the U.S .
Ultimately , the calculus for U.S. oil producers is about cost and efficiency .
“ There is a view that if they can make this business profitable at as low an @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 30 a barrel , they can survive , ” says Atul Arya , chief energy strategist at IHS Markit , a research firm .
That business-as-usual approach could prove risky if a Biden administration prioritizes climate and Congress legislates to put a price on carbon .
The former vice president has set a target of net-zero carbon in electricity generation by 2035 , the same year that California says it wants to end the sale of new gasoline-powered vehicles .
Another risk lies in Europe ’ s plan to introduce a carbon border @ @ @ @ @ @ @ trade in goods .
Set against those risks is the near-certainty that the world will need more natural gas , which emits less carbon dioxide than oil but consists mostly of methane , a potent heat-trapping gas .
U.S. producers also see upsides in supplying energy-importing countries in Asia and Africa after the pandemic recedes and in being profitable even if crude prices never soar as high again .
“ Exxon believes there will be more days of gold and milk and honey .
Shell and BP and Total don ’ t .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ into an era in which oil and gas will not generate those returns , ” says Clark Butler , a corporate adviser in Sydney who studies the industry .
What sets apart multinationals like BP , founded in 1908 as the Anglo-Persian Oil Company , is a global trading mindset , says Mr. Book .
While Standard Oil and its descendants competed on world markets , their production hub was the world ’ s largest economy and their corporate culture was one of engineers .
Europe had fewer resources and its oil companies @ @ @ @ @ @ @ endures in the commodity trading desks they run today , akin to Wall Street banks .
“ It ’ s easy for them to make this leap , ” he says .
The 1973 oil shock spurred U.S. oil companies to invest in alternative energy , including solar panels .
The lithium-ion battery on which today ’ s electric cars depend was invented by Exxon , back when it seemed possible that the world might run out of gasoline .
This time “ there ’ s a sense of been there , done @ @ @ @ @ @ @ referring to U.S. oil majors .
“ They ’ re also saying , why would it be better for us to be in the electricity business ?
” That BP and its peers can succeed in this business is far from certain .
They have the advantage of huge retail networks – Shell has 44,000 gas stations around the world that can offer electric vehicle charging – but are entering a regulated sector with lower profit margins than oil and gas during a global recession .
Shell and Total “ aren ’ t @ @ @ @ @ @ @ [ decarbonization ] goals at the moment .
One of the reasons is that the returns may not be there , ” says Mr. Butler .
Shell recently cut its dividend for the first time since World War II .
BP also faces a cash crunch that could complicate its green makeover , says Mr. Arya , a former BP executive who was its chief adviser on climate and energy policy .
“ In an ideal world , you have a high oil price and you take those profits and invest aggressively in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ transition to cleaner forms of energy is as much about technology as corporate strategy since many of the pathways to decarbonization , such as carbon capture at power plants , are unproven at scale and fossil fuels still provide 84 % of the world ’ s energy , says Dr. Yergin .
“ To make that pivot [ to green energy ] takes a lot of investment and a lot of equipment .
From that point of view , 2050 is not that far away , ” he says .

“To make that pivot [to green energy] takes a lot of investment and a lot of equipment,” Dr. Yergin says. “From that point of view, 2050 is not that far away.”
Neither path guarantees success. Following the crash of oil prices this year, European fossil fuel companies may not have enough cash on hand to effectively shift to renewables. The U.S. approach relies on technology that has yet to be proven to work at scale.
“There’s never been such a wide disparity in strategy between major oil companies, and it reflects where they live,” says oil historian Daniel Yergin.
The result is a bifurcation between U.S. and European companies over the future of a $5 trillion industry.
As oil and gas companies around the world finally begin to reckon with the climate crisis, their proposed solutions offer a glimpse of the social values that guide them.
But this zeal isn’t shared by U.S. oil companies. Far from giving up on hydrocarbons, they are doubling down on efforts to extract oil and gas while pursuing technologies to capture and store carbon emissions.
BP announced recently that it would cut its fossil fuel production by up to 40% over the next decade. It joins several European oil and gas companies promising drastic reductions in greenhouse gas emissions and steep investments in renewable energy, with a goal of carbon neutrality by 2050.
When BP recently unveiled a strategic makeover for an era of rising alarm over climate change, environmentalists were on guard for greenwashing by a global oil titan.
But BP’s announcement that it would increase its renewable energy assets tenfold – and slash oil and gas output by up to 40% over a decade – gave even its sternest critics reason to cheer. Greenpeace, which in February picketed BP’s London offices with solar panels and oil barrels to protest its climate policy, called it a “credible and encouraging start.”
The British company is one of several European oil and gas companies that have pledged to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. They are racing to embrace renewable sources of energy for a future of smart grids, electric cars, and digital commerce.
Why We Wrote This As oil and gas companies around the world finally begin to reckon with the climate crisis, their proposed solutions offer a glimpse of the social values that guide them.
That zeal isn’t shared by U.S. oil companies, though. Far from giving up on hydrocarbons, they are doubling down on them in the belief that demand will be back, even as the deleterious effects of their emissions attenuate. The result is a rift between U.S. and European companies over the future of a $5 trillion industry that powers a world beset by climatic crises.
“There’s never been such a wide disparity in strategy between major oil companies, and it reflects where they live,” says Daniel Yergin, an oil historian and author of a new book, “The New Map: Energy, Climate, and the Clash of Nations.”
In Europe, a “survival strategy”
European governments have set ambitious goals to decarbonize their economies and are asking oil companies, some of which are state-owned, to develop cleaner forms of energy. That political consensus is underpinned by public concern over climate change and environmental degradation; pension funds are also pushing oil companies to account for climate impacts.
“All companies pay attention to their shareholders. But European companies pay attention to their stakeholders,” says Kevin Book, director of research at ClearView Energy Partners, a Washington-based consultancy. “To be a European company is to think about European people and European values.”
This month, the European Commission presented a plan for emissions cuts of 55% by 2030, compared to 1990 levels, a target that would require massive investments in low-carbon energy production. The 27-member European Union aims to be carbon neutral by midcentury. (Britain, which left on Jan. 31, has set the same goal.)
By contrast, the Trump administration has belittled climate scientists, rejected the Paris Agreement on emissions cuts, and rolled back regulations on oil, gas, and coal producers.
Public opinion and government policy aren’t the only reasons why companies like BP, France’s Total, and Royal Dutch Shell are trying to reinvent themselves as clean energy providers. They are also making a virtue out of necessity, having written off billions of dollars in investments after oil prices plunged from nearly $70 a barrel in January to briefly going negative in April.
Evan Vucci/AP View caption Hide caption House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy of Calif., left, and Chevron CEO Mike Wirth, right, listen to President Donald Trump speak during a meeting with energy sector business leaders in the Cabinet Room of the White House, April 3, 2020, in Washington.
The risk they face going forward is that investors in Europe may see loss-making oil companies as dinosaurs who left it too late to diversify, says David Goldwyn, a former State Department official for international energy affairs. “It’s an economic reality and a survival strategy,” he says.
Cutting the emissions, keeping the oil
That reality looks different in Houston, the U.S. oil capital. Companies like ExxonMobil and Chevron Corp. also anticipate greater scrutiny of their own emissions and that of the products they sell, say analysts. But they’re not about to reinvent a business model that goes back to John Rockefeller and has been reinvigorated by shale production. Instead they will keep drilling and selling oil and gas while investing in new technologies to capture and store carbon.
“For the U.S. majors, the goal is to reduce emissions, not to promote renewables,” says Mr. Goldwyn.
In July, Chevron CEO Mike Wirth assured the Texas Oil & Gas Association that a global transition toward cleaner forms of energy wasn’t an existential threat. “We’ll find ways to make oil and gas more efficient, more environmentally benign,” he said.
Unlike Europe, which imports 75% of its oil, the U.S. has ample domestic reserves. And the vertiginous market crash – prices are now around $40 a barrel – has wiped out smaller players, squeezed speculators, and created opportunities. In July, Chevron agreed to pay $4 billion for Noble Energy, which produces natural gas in Israeli waters in addition to shale assets in the U.S.
Ultimately, the calculus for U.S. oil producers is about cost and efficiency. “There is a view that if they can make this business profitable at as low an oil price as possible, at $30 a barrel, they can survive,” says Atul Arya, chief energy strategist at IHS Markit, a research firm.
That business-as-usual approach could prove risky if a Biden administration prioritizes climate and Congress legislates to put a price on carbon. The former vice president has set a target of net-zero carbon in electricity generation by 2035, the same year that California says it wants to end the sale of new gasoline-powered vehicles. Another risk lies in Europe’s plan to introduce a carbon border tax that could set global standards for trade in goods.
Set against those risks is the near-certainty that the world will need more natural gas, which emits less carbon dioxide than oil but consists mostly of methane, a potent heat-trapping gas. U.S. producers also see upsides in supplying energy-importing countries in Asia and Africa after the pandemic recedes and in being profitable even if crude prices never soar as high again.
“Exxon believes there will be more days of gold and milk and honey. Shell and BP and Total don’t. ... They think we’re moving into an era in which oil and gas will not generate those returns,” says Clark Butler, a corporate adviser in Sydney who studies the industry.
What sets apart multinationals like BP, founded in 1908 as the Anglo-Persian Oil Company, is a global trading mindset, says Mr. Book. While Standard Oil and its descendants competed on world markets, their production hub was the world’s largest economy and their corporate culture was one of engineers. Europe had fewer resources and its oil companies began as traders, a legacy that endures in the commodity trading desks they run today, akin to Wall Street banks.
“It’s easy for them to make this leap,” he says.
“Been there, done that”
The 1973 oil shock spurred U.S. oil companies to invest in alternative energy, including solar panels. The lithium-ion battery on which today’s electric cars depend was invented by Exxon, back when it seemed possible that the world might run out of gasoline.
This time “there’s a sense of been there, done that,” says Dr. Yergin, referring to U.S. oil majors. “They’re also saying, why would it be better for us to be in the electricity business?”
That BP and its peers can succeed in this business is far from certain. They have the advantage of huge retail networks – Shell has 44,000 gas stations around the world that can offer electric vehicle charging – but are entering a regulated sector with lower profit margins than oil and gas during a global recession.
Shell and Total “aren’t pivoting sufficiently towards renewables to hit their [decarbonization] goals at the moment. One of the reasons is that the returns may not be there,” says Mr. Butler.
Shell recently cut its dividend for the first time since World War II. BP also faces a cash crunch that could complicate its green makeover, says Mr. Arya, a former BP executive who was its chief adviser on climate and energy policy. “In an ideal world, you have a high oil price and you take those profits and invest aggressively in renewables,” he says.
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A transition to cleaner forms of energy is as much about technology as corporate strategy since many of the pathways to decarbonization, such as carbon capture at power plants, are unproven at scale and fossil fuels still provide 84% of the world’s energy, says Dr. Yergin.
“To make that pivot [to green energy] takes a lot of investment and a lot of equipment. From that point of view, 2050 is not that far away,” he says.


csmonitor--2020-10-05--Can India's wild elephants find a haven in tea gardens?

To proponents , the voluntary certification program offers an opportunity for animal-loving consumers to make their voice heard .
“ [ It ] can allow consumers to vote with their wallets on issues that are important to them , ” says Julie Stein , executive director and co-founder of WFEN .
His efforts earned him certification from the Certified Elephant Friendly Tea Program , a partnership between the Wildlife Friendly Enterprise Network and the University of Montana .
To promote coexistence , Mr. Bodosa created elephant-friendly buffer zones on his farms , replete with elephant grass , elephant apples , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ also provides the elephants with water and a transit corridor free of ditches and barriers .
“ Very often the elephants would destroy fences , uproot trees , and terrorize the employees , ” says Tenzing Bodosa , who operates two tea gardens in Assam with more than 70 workers .
“ That was when I got the idea that there must be a way to coexist peacefully.
” Unfortunately , interactions between these two Indian icons often end in tragedy .
Tea workers are frequently trampled .
Elephant calves often die after @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s northeastern state of Assam is known worldwide for its plantations that produce subtly flavored breakfast teas .
The state is also home to nearly 6,000 Asian elephants .
It was a full moon .
Tenzing Bodosa awoke , disturbed by a sound in his tea gardens .
Looking out of his porch he saw a herd of wild elephants under the silvery light , with the calves frolicking , the mother munching on the luxuriant grass , and the male elephant standing guard .
For many tea farmers in India , seeing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ crops is cause for alarm .
But for Mr. Bodosa , who employs more than 70 workers at two farms in Assam ’ s Udalguri district , it meant everything was working just as he planned .
His operations , which he calls the “ world ’ s first elephant-friendly tea farm , ” were certified in 2016 by the Certified Elephant Friendly Tea Program , a partnership between the Wildlife Friendly Enterprise Network ( WFEN ) and the University of Montana .
“ Certification can come about in different ways , ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ co-founder of WFEN .
“ Sometimes we become aware of exemplary farmers who are thought leaders , sometimes tea growers reach out to us to see if they qualify , sometimes tea brands may contact us to see if their suppliers qualify.
” Ms. Stein says the program conducts a full field audit before certification .
Consumers pay a premium for this tea , which is sourced from plantations that protect elephant habitats , reduce barriers and ditches to facilitate the easy movement of elephants , and ensure safe disposal of chemicals .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ can allow consumers to vote with their wallets on issues that are important to them , ” Ms. Stein says .
The IUCN Red List classifies Asian elephants as an endangered species , with about 40,000 to 50,000 remaining across their range countries , a decline of more than 50 % in the last 75 years .
According to Sandeep Tiwari , program manager of the IUCN ’ s Asian Elephant Specialist Group , India is home to about 28,000 wild elephants .
“ Many reasons have led to this , ” he @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and loss of habitat to poisoning , electrocution , poaching , and elephant-man conflict.
” One of the surprising reasons for the declining population is connected to tea cultivation .
India is the second-largest tea grower after China , and Assam leads tea production .
Assam has a population of 5,719 wild elephants , the most after the state of Karnataka .
Elephants perceive tea gardens as extensions of their forest habitat , as they have been part of their migratory routes over centuries .
They quite often use them to rest @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and drink water , and to give birth .
In India , interactions between humans and wild elephants often end badly for members of both species .
Elephants kill more than 400 people – many of them tea garden workers – in the country each year .
Sometimes , due to lack of natural forage , elephants enter villages to raid crops , and villagers pelt them with stones or hit them with sticks to drive them out .
Many calves are trapped in the ditches that are dug for drainage in tea @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to British colonial times , when government wastelands were given on lease to tea companies .
In Assam , home to most of India ’ s tea plantations , elephant corridors are shrinking .
“ Very often the elephants would destroy fences , uproot trees , and terrorize the employees , ” says Mr. Bodosa .
“ That was when I got the idea that there must be a way to coexist peacefully.
” Mr. Bodosa has been growing tea organically since 2007 , when he was one of the few farmers using @ @ @ @ @ @ @ meal , and urine .
He realized that using artificial fertilizers and pesticides was not only harmful to those farming but also to the final product .
“ I thought that something that people start their day with , a cup of tea , can ’ t be full of poison , ” he says .
Mr. Bodosa picked up the nuts and bolts of organic farming from a Canadian nongovernmental organization , and later Dr. L Narayana Reddy , an organic farmer in Bengaluru who taught him composting .
Mr. Bodosa planted @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and jackfruit ; used local leaves as pesticides ; and brought about an ecological balance on his farm .
To make his farms elephant-friendly , he created a buffer zone for them , planting it with vegetation that the elephants are fond of , from elephant grass and elephant apples to bamboo and star fruit ; made a tank with stored water ; and provided them easy passage by making sure there were no ditches , fences , or barriers .
Hornbills , mongooses , peacocks , and deer frequent his tea @ @ @ @ @ @ @ his farms , and even stay in a treehouse that he has built , and volunteer .
Mr. Bodosa has also trained as many as 70,000 farmers from neighboring states like Sikkim , Nagaland , and Arunachal Pradesh in organic farming .
WFEN and the University of Montana have funded a reforestation project here , where women grow native trees and schoolchildren help plant trees for elephant habitats .
The 1,200 acre Nuxalbari Tea Estate in Darjeeling , established in 1884 and run by fifth-generation owner Sonia Jabbar , was the first large @ @ @ @ @ @ @ though Ms. Jabbar has since opted out of the program .
The estate , which lies in the middle of an elephant corridor , has been working for years to help wild elephants in the area .
Actions include creating elephant pools ; planting native trees , shrubs , and grasses so that elephants have shelter and forage ; implementing an early warning system for workers ; and training estate security to keep elephant corridors free .
Nuxalbari also has a club for workers ’ children , educating them through games and films @ @ @ @ @ @ @ year , Ms. Jabbar was awarded the Nari Shakti Puraskar , India ’ s highest civilian award for women .
Recently , she created the Hathi Sathi Foundation , which scales up the work at Nuxalbari Tea Estates to other tea estates and villages across north Bengal .
“ Human-elephant conflict is a colossal issue in these parts , ” she says .
“ Now with a grassroots organization that focuses solely on conservation , we hope to bring lasting peace between humans and our majestic elephants.
” “ We have to work @ @ @ @ @ @ @ wild elephants and humans , ” she says .

To proponents, the voluntary certification program offers an opportunity for animal-loving consumers to make their voice heard. “[It] can allow consumers to vote with their wallets on issues that are important to them,” says Julie Stein, executive director and co-founder of WFEN.
His efforts earned him certification from the Certified Elephant Friendly Tea Program, a partnership between the Wildlife Friendly Enterprise Network and the University of Montana.
To promote coexistence, Mr. Bodosa created elephant-friendly buffer zones on his farms, replete with elephant grass, elephant apples, bamboo, and star fruit. He also provides the elephants with water and a transit corridor free of ditches and barriers.
“Very often the elephants would destroy fences, uproot trees, and terrorize the employees,” says Tenzing Bodosa, who operates two tea gardens in Assam with more than 70 workers. “That was when I got the idea that there must be a way to coexist peacefully.”
Interactions between humans and wildlife need not be a zero-sum game. In India, some farmers are showing how elephants and tea farmers can peacefully coexist.
Unfortunately, interactions between these two Indian icons often end in tragedy. Tea workers are frequently trampled. Elephant calves often die after falling in drainage ditches.
India’s northeastern state of Assam is known worldwide for its plantations that produce subtly flavored breakfast teas. The state is also home to nearly 6,000 Asian elephants.
It was a full moon. Tenzing Bodosa awoke, disturbed by a sound in his tea gardens. Looking out of his porch he saw a herd of wild elephants under the silvery light, with the calves frolicking, the mother munching on the luxuriant grass, and the male elephant standing guard.
For many tea farmers in India, seeing a herd of wild elephants amid the crops is cause for alarm. But for Mr. Bodosa, who employs more than 70 workers at two farms in Assam’s Udalguri district, it meant everything was working just as he planned.
His operations, which he calls the “world’s first elephant-friendly tea farm,” were certified in 2016 by the Certified Elephant Friendly Tea Program, a partnership between the Wildlife Friendly Enterprise Network (WFEN) and the University of Montana.
Why We Wrote This Interactions between humans and wildlife need not be a zero-sum game. In India, some farmers are showing how elephants and tea farmers can peacefully coexist.
“Certification can come about in different ways,” says Julie Stein, executive director and co-founder of WFEN. “Sometimes we become aware of exemplary farmers who are thought leaders, sometimes tea growers reach out to us to see if they qualify, sometimes tea brands may contact us to see if their suppliers qualify.”
Ms. Stein says the program conducts a full field audit before certification. Consumers pay a premium for this tea, which is sourced from plantations that protect elephant habitats, reduce barriers and ditches to facilitate the easy movement of elephants, and ensure safe disposal of chemicals.
“A voluntary certification program like ours can allow consumers to vote with their wallets on issues that are important to them,” Ms. Stein says.
A species in peril
The IUCN Red List classifies Asian elephants as an endangered species, with about 40,000 to 50,000 remaining across their range countries, a decline of more than 50% in the last 75 years. According to Sandeep Tiwari, program manager of the IUCN’s Asian Elephant Specialist Group, India is home to about 28,000 wild elephants. “Many reasons have led to this,” he says, “from fragmentation, degradation, and loss of habitat to poisoning, electrocution, poaching, and elephant-man conflict.”
One of the surprising reasons for the declining population is connected to tea cultivation. India is the second-largest tea grower after China, and Assam leads tea production. Assam has a population of 5,719 wild elephants, the most after the state of Karnataka. Elephants perceive tea gardens as extensions of their forest habitat, as they have been part of their migratory routes over centuries. They quite often use them to rest in the daytime, to eat food and drink water, and to give birth.
In India, interactions between humans and wild elephants often end badly for members of both species. Elephants kill more than 400 people – many of them tea garden workers – in the country each year. Sometimes, due to lack of natural forage, elephants enter villages to raid crops, and villagers pelt them with stones or hit them with sticks to drive them out. Many calves are trapped in the ditches that are dug for drainage in tea estates.
Most tea plantations date back to British colonial times, when government wastelands were given on lease to tea companies. In Assam, home to most of India’s tea plantations, elephant corridors are shrinking.
“Very often the elephants would destroy fences, uproot trees, and terrorize the employees,” says Mr. Bodosa. “That was when I got the idea that there must be a way to coexist peacefully.”
Mr. Bodosa has been growing tea organically since 2007, when he was one of the few farmers using natural products like cow manure, bone meal, and urine. He realized that using artificial fertilizers and pesticides was not only harmful to those farming but also to the final product. “I thought that something that people start their day with, a cup of tea, can’t be full of poison,” he says.
Mr. Bodosa picked up the nuts and bolts of organic farming from a Canadian nongovernmental organization, and later Dr. L Narayana Reddy, an organic farmer in Bengaluru who taught him composting. Mr. Bodosa planted plants and trees like litchi, guava, and jackfruit; used local leaves as pesticides; and brought about an ecological balance on his farm.
To make his farms elephant-friendly, he created a buffer zone for them, planting it with vegetation that the elephants are fond of, from elephant grass and elephant apples to bamboo and star fruit; made a tank with stored water; and provided them easy passage by making sure there were no ditches, fences, or barriers. Hornbills, mongooses, peacocks, and deer frequent his tea gardens. Many human visitors come to his farms, and even stay in a treehouse that he has built, and volunteer.
Mr. Bodosa has also trained as many as 70,000 farmers from neighboring states like Sikkim, Nagaland, and Arunachal Pradesh in organic farming. WFEN and the University of Montana have funded a reforestation project here, where women grow native trees and schoolchildren help plant trees for elephant habitats.
Stephen Styris View caption Hide caption Tenzing Bodosa stands in one of his "elephant-friendly" tea gardens, which includes buffer zones with elephant-friendly plants.
Securing a “lasting peace”
The 1,200 acre Nuxalbari Tea Estate in Darjeeling, established in 1884 and run by fifth-generation owner Sonia Jabbar, was the first large tea estate to be certified elephant-friendly, though Ms. Jabbar has since opted out of the program.
The estate, which lies in the middle of an elephant corridor, has been working for years to help wild elephants in the area. Actions include creating elephant pools; planting native trees, shrubs, and grasses so that elephants have shelter and forage; implementing an early warning system for workers; and training estate security to keep elephant corridors free. Nuxalbari also has a club for workers’ children, educating them through games and films on conservation and climate change. Last year, Ms. Jabbar was awarded the Nari Shakti Puraskar, India’s highest civilian award for women.
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empower and uplift daily. By signing up, you agree to our Privacy Policy Already a subscriber? Log in to hide ads.
Recently, she created the Hathi Sathi Foundation, which scales up the work at Nuxalbari Tea Estates to other tea estates and villages across north Bengal. “Human-elephant conflict is a colossal issue in these parts,” she says. “Now with a grassroots organization that focuses solely on conservation, we hope to bring lasting peace between humans and our majestic elephants.”
“We have to work hard to secure the lives of both wild elephants and humans,” she says.


csmonitor--2020-10-05--Turkey stirring the pot? Why Armenians, Azeris are fighting again.

The new player in the conflict – viewed by some analysts as a key destabilizing factor – is NATO power Turkey .
Its foray into the South Caucasus is its latest regional military intervention , after Syria and Libya .
It has vowed to provide unequivocal backing to its close ally Azerbaijan amid a combustible mix of nationalism , rising military capabilities , and energy politics .
After lying largely dormant for decades , conflict has escalated in the past week .
At least 250 people have been killed , and a largely local ethnic dispute runs the risk of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Four United Nations resolutions in 1993 called for Armenia to withdraw .
And since the cease-fire in 1994 – which was meant to be temporary – Azerbaijan has vowed to regain the territory , even as neighboring Armenia considers itself Nagorno-Karabakh ’ s security guarantor .
The fight over Nagorno-Karabakh was one of a number of territorial and ethnic battles that erupted as the Soviet Union collapsed in the late 1980s .
Thousands died .
Hundreds of thousands were displaced .
The majority Christian Armenian enclave declared independence from Shiite Muslim Azerbaijan in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to occupy one-fifth of Azerbaijani territory .
After lying largely dormant for decades , conflict has escalated in the past week between Azerbaijan and Armenia over the enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh .
At least 250 people have been killed , and a largely local ethnic dispute runs the risk of turning into a wider regional war .
As artillery , drone , and rocket attacks increasingly target population centers on both sides , rival leaders have staked out uncompromising positions over the fate of the mountainous ethnic Armenian enclave carved out of Azerbaijani territory @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of Azerbaijan , has exercised self-rule since a fragile cease-fire in 1994 capped six years of war that left 30,000 dead and some 600,000 ethnic Azeris displaced .
After months of rising tensions , open hostilities erupted Sept. 27 .
Separatist forces in Nagorno-Karabakh say their largest city , Stepanakert , has been heavily bombarded by Azerbaijan since Friday .
Several Azeri cities likewise have been targeted in recent days .
Why is a post-Soviet conflict hot again ?
The new player in the conflict – viewed by some analysts as a key @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , which has vowed to provide unequivocal backing to its close ally Azerbaijan amid a combustible mix of nationalism , rising military capabilities , and energy politics .
Turkey ’ s foray into the South Caucasus – long considered Russia ’ s backyard , because the two key belligerents are both former Soviet republics – is Turkey ’ s latest regional military intervention , after Syria and Libya .
In all three conflicts where Turkey has flexed its regional muscle , it has often found itself on the opposite side from Russia .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ a number of territorial and ethnic battles that erupted as the Soviet Union collapsed in the late 1980s .
The majority Christian Armenian enclave declared independence from Shiite Muslim Azerbaijan in 1991 , and rebel forces were able to occupy one-fifth of Azerbaijani territory .
Four United Nations resolutions in 1993 called for Armenia to withdraw .
And since the cease-fire in 1994 – which was meant to be temporary – Azerbaijan has vowed to regain the territory , even as neighboring Armenia considers itself Nagorno-Karabakh ’ s security guarantor .
Brief clashes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Fighting erupted again this past July after Armenia killed an Azerbaijani general and several officers .
The skirmishes this summer prompted Turkey to send men and military equipment to Azerbaijan for two weeks of joint land and air exercises .
Each side accuses the other of starting the latest fighting , and both have enhanced their military prowess , which experts say is one of several contributing factors in the latest flare-up .
“ Both Azerbaijan and Armenia have acquired new military capabilities , ” writes Turkish military analyst Metin Gürcan in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ also cites “ major changes ” in energy politics of the South Caucasus that have brought Azerbaijan and Turkey much closer together , with pipelines that bring Azeri oil and gas through Turkey .
In addition , writes Mr. Gürcan , “ nationalist and populist trends are on the rise in both Azerbaijan and Armenia , pushing their respective leaders ... to adopt more escalatory postures.
” How has Turkey changed the battlefield equation ?
Armenia accuses Turkey of playing a direct role : shooting down an Armenian jet fighter , boosting Azerbaijan @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Turkish officers , and even recruiting and sending Syrian rebels to the frontline – as Turkey did in Libya .
Ankara denies those accusations .
But there is little doubt that Turkey ’ s presence – and the rhetoric of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan , who promised again Friday to back “ brotherly ” Azerbaijan “ with all our means and all our heart ” – has emboldened Baku .
Indeed , Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev on Sunday laid down tough conditions for a cease-fire .
Armenian forces “ must leave our territories @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , ” recognize the country ’ s territorial integrity , and apologize .
Mr. Aliyev has trumpeted the recent capture of a string of Karabakh villages .
Those gains prompted hundreds of people in Baku to take to the streets , waving flags and signs that read , “ Karabakh was and will be ours , ” Reuters reported .
The Karabakh presidency warned that it would “ expand subsequent [ military ] actions to the entire territory of Azerbaijan.
” Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan cast the current fight in nationalist terms @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s war against Ottoman Turkey more than a century ago – a period when the precursor of the modern Turkish state killed at least 800,000 ethnic Armenians in the first genocide of the modern era .
What are the chances of peace ?
The scale of renewed fighting indicates that the fragile status quo prevalent for 26 years – with an enclave of Armenian self-rule in the midst of Azerbaijani territory – may no longer be tenable .
The Minsk Group – founded in 1992 to end the conflict , and chaired @ @ @ @ @ @ @ United States – has called for an end to hostilities .
Russia has so far not officially taken sides , for despite having a defense pact with Armenia and a military base there , it has also provided weapons to Azerbaijan .
France has been loudest in calling for a cease-fire and has offered to mediate .
Armenia on Friday said it would work toward a cease-fire with the three big powers .
But Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu dismissed the request , saying that “ superficial demands for an immediate end to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be useful at this time .
”

The new player in the conflict – viewed by some analysts as a key destabilizing factor – is NATO power Turkey. Its foray into the South Caucasus is its latest regional military intervention, after Syria and Libya. It has vowed to provide unequivocal backing to its close ally Azerbaijan amid a combustible mix of nationalism, rising military capabilities, and energy politics.
After lying largely dormant for decades, conflict has escalated in the past week. At least 250 people have been killed, and a largely local ethnic dispute runs the risk of turning into a wider regional war.
For decades, Nagorno-Karabakh has been largely absent from headlines. But fighting has resumed, and people are dying again. It’s a case study in old borders, older rivalries, and the enduring ability of outside powers to meddle.
Four United Nations resolutions in 1993 called for Armenia to withdraw. And since the cease-fire in 1994 – which was meant to be temporary – Azerbaijan has vowed to regain the territory, even as neighboring Armenia considers itself Nagorno-Karabakh’s security guarantor.
The fight over Nagorno-Karabakh was one of a number of territorial and ethnic battles that erupted as the Soviet Union collapsed in the late 1980s. Thousands died. Hundreds of thousands were displaced. The majority Christian Armenian enclave declared independence from Shiite Muslim Azerbaijan in 1991, and rebel forces were able to occupy one-fifth of Azerbaijani territory.
After lying largely dormant for decades, conflict has escalated in the past week between Azerbaijan and Armenia over the enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh. At least 250 people have been killed, and a largely local ethnic dispute runs the risk of turning into a wider regional war.
As artillery, drone, and rocket attacks increasingly target population centers on both sides, rival leaders have staked out uncompromising positions over the fate of the mountainous ethnic Armenian enclave carved out of Azerbaijani territory.
Nagorno-Karabakh, still recognized as part of Azerbaijan, has exercised self-rule since a fragile cease-fire in 1994 capped six years of war that left 30,000 dead and some 600,000 ethnic Azeris displaced.
Why We Wrote This For decades, Nagorno-Karabakh has been largely absent from headlines. But fighting has resumed, and people are dying again. It’s a case study in old borders, older rivalries, and the enduring ability of outside powers to meddle.
After months of rising tensions, open hostilities erupted Sept. 27. Separatist forces in Nagorno-Karabakh say their largest city, Stepanakert, has been heavily bombarded by Azerbaijan since Friday. Several Azeri cities likewise have been targeted in recent days.
Karen Norris/Staff
Why is a post-Soviet conflict hot again?
The new player in the conflict – viewed by some analysts as a key destabilizing factor – is NATO power Turkey, which has vowed to provide unequivocal backing to its close ally Azerbaijan amid a combustible mix of nationalism, rising military capabilities, and energy politics.
Turkey’s foray into the South Caucasus – long considered Russia’s backyard, because the two key belligerents are both former Soviet republics – is Turkey’s latest regional military intervention, after Syria and Libya. In all three conflicts where Turkey has flexed its regional muscle, it has often found itself on the opposite side from Russia.
The fight over Nagorno-Karabakh was one of a number of territorial and ethnic battles that erupted as the Soviet Union collapsed in the late 1980s. The majority Christian Armenian enclave declared independence from Shiite Muslim Azerbaijan in 1991, and rebel forces were able to occupy one-fifth of Azerbaijani territory.
Four United Nations resolutions in 1993 called for Armenia to withdraw. And since the cease-fire in 1994 – which was meant to be temporary – Azerbaijan has vowed to regain the territory, even as neighboring Armenia considers itself Nagorno-Karabakh’s security guarantor.
Brief clashes erupted in 2016, leaving 200 dead. Fighting erupted again this past July after Armenia killed an Azerbaijani general and several officers. The skirmishes this summer prompted Turkey to send men and military equipment to Azerbaijan for two weeks of joint land and air exercises.
Each side accuses the other of starting the latest fighting, and both have enhanced their military prowess, which experts say is one of several contributing factors in the latest flare-up.
“Both Azerbaijan and Armenia have acquired new military capabilities,” writes Turkish military analyst Metin Gürcan in the online news site Al-Monitor. He also cites “major changes” in energy politics of the South Caucasus that have brought Azerbaijan and Turkey much closer together, with pipelines that bring Azeri oil and gas through Turkey.
In addition, writes Mr. Gürcan, “nationalist and populist trends are on the rise in both Azerbaijan and Armenia, pushing their respective leaders ... to adopt more escalatory postures.”
How has Turkey changed the battlefield equation?
Armenia accuses Turkey of playing a direct role: shooting down an Armenian jet fighter, boosting Azerbaijan’s drone capabilities, deploying 150 Turkish officers, and even recruiting and sending Syrian rebels to the frontline – as Turkey did in Libya.
Ankara denies those accusations. But there is little doubt that Turkey’s presence – and the rhetoric of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who promised again Friday to back “brotherly” Azerbaijan “with all our means and all our heart” – has emboldened Baku.
Indeed, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev on Sunday laid down tough conditions for a cease-fire. Armenian forces “must leave our territories, not in words but in deeds,” recognize the country’s territorial integrity, and apologize.
Mr. Aliyev has trumpeted the recent capture of a string of Karabakh villages. Those gains prompted hundreds of people in Baku to take to the streets, waving flags and signs that read, “Karabakh was and will be ours,” Reuters reported.
The Karabakh presidency warned that it would “expand subsequent [military] actions to the entire territory of Azerbaijan.”
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan cast the current fight in nationalist terms, likening the current battle to Armenia’s war against Ottoman Turkey more than a century ago – a period when the precursor of the modern Turkish state killed at least 800,000 ethnic Armenians in the first genocide of the modern era.
What are the chances of peace?
The scale of renewed fighting indicates that the fragile status quo prevalent for 26 years – with an enclave of Armenian self-rule in the midst of Azerbaijani territory – may no longer be tenable.
The Minsk Group – founded in 1992 to end the conflict, and chaired by France, Russia, and the United States – has called for an end to hostilities. Russia has so far not officially taken sides, for despite having a defense pact with Armenia and a military base there, it has also provided weapons to Azerbaijan.
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empower and uplift daily. By signing up, you agree to our Privacy Policy Already a subscriber? Log in to hide ads.
France has been loudest in calling for a cease-fire and has offered to mediate. Armenia on Friday said it would work toward a cease-fire with the three big powers.
But Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu dismissed the request, saying that “superficial demands for an immediate end to hostilities and a permanent cease-fire will not be useful at this time.”


csmonitor--2020-10-05--Seal populations have recovered, but not everyone is happy

Nick Muto has fished up and down the New England coast , and there is nothing that gets his blood boiling more than the sight of a seal .
Mr. Muto , whose two boats fish for groundfish such as skate and monkfish , as well as lobster , is among a growing group of anglers , beach goers , and local officials who are quick to blame everything from disease to depleted fisheries to increased shark sightings on the exploding seal population .
“ Areas that we used to traditionally fish , that were as close to guarantees as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ mined of fish , and the fish have been driven out of there by seals , ” Mr. Muto said .
“ They have eaten fish out of our nets .
They have been caught in our nets .
They are everywhere.
” The debate over seals was reignited after the death in July of a swimmer killed by a shark off Harpswell , Maine .
Seals are often shark prey , and experts believe Julie Holowach may have been mistaken for a seal .
No one questions that seal and shark numbers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to federal protections .
It ’ s estimated there are as many as 50,000 grey seals in New England waters , plus a lesser number of harbor seals .
The animals were almost eliminated through hunting and bounties decades ago .
But experts maintain there is not enough science to determine whether the current population is too big , and little basis for culling the marine mammals .
Even suggesting seals are destroying fisheries or are solely to blame for shark attacks is not supported by hard evidence .
Experts say warming waters @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a role .
The Gulf of Maine , which stretches from Cape Cod to Nova Scotia , has been heating up faster than 99 % of the world ’ s oceans .
“ We get into this question of how many grey seals there are .
The next question is how many seals should there be , which is kind of where people are going to go next with that , which is a very challenging thing , ” said David Johnston , a marine ecologist at Duke University who has done grey @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tagged seals to demonstrate how their feeding behavior changes due to sharks in the Northwest Atlantic .
Seal population rise has prompted the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ( NOAA ) to propose guidelines for deterring the marine mammals , including physical barriers to keep seals away from fishing gear .
“ Frustration by fishermen and property owners stemming from conflicts with marine mammals has increased , ” notes NOAA ’ s proposal .
The agency is taking comments until Oct. 30 .
But Mr. Johnston and Stephanie Wood , a University of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the Boston Harbor , said the public should view seals as a conservation success story , rather than a problem to be managed .
Hunted almost into extinction by the 1900s , seals were given federal protection in 1972 by the Marine Mammal Protection Act .
Seals began returning to New England waters in the 1980s and 1990s from Nova Scotia and have thrived ever since – often raising pups on federally protected islands once home to hunting and fishing camps .
They also disperse widely and have benefited from a wide-ranging @ @ @ @ @ @ @ squid .
“ Habitat opened up for seals , which is sort of the opposite story that we hear about a lot of other populations struggling to recover , ” said Ms. Wood , noting that other marine mammals such as whales and monk seals “ haven ’ t recovered in the same way.
” Trying to reduce the numbers of seals is more complicated than opening up a hunt for an abundant species such as deer , said Kristina Cammen , a marine mammal scientist with University of Maine .
Bounties on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ populations by as many as 135,000 , and marine mammal protections are designed to prevent that kind of population loss again , Ms. Cammen said .
Learning to coexist with the growing seal population makes far more sense , even if it contributes to more shark sightings in coastal waters , she said .
“ A healthy ecosystem has sharks , seals , and humans and they all have a place in that ecosystem.
” Some species of sharks have rebounded because there are protections for them , not just because there are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Bogomolni , chair of Northwest Atlantic Seal Research Consortium , based in Woods Hole , Massachusetts .
“ Communicating that message of conservation success entails more than just a single species , ” Ms. Bogomolni said .
But seal critics call seals a public safety and ecological crisis and warn there will be more shark attacks if nothing is done .
Tourism , too , will suffer , they said .
Some who are alarmed by the seal population burst are advocating culls while others are proposing some form of birth control .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ Mammal Protection Act to allow delisting of species – similar to what ’ s allowed under the Endangered Species Act .
The first step , they argue , would be a study to determine what ’ s a healthy population of seals for the region .
“ Doing nothing is not acceptable to me and not acceptable to other residents of Cape Cod , ” Barnstable County Commissioner Ron Beaty said , adding that seals are the “ core problem.
” “ The quality of life here and our ability to make a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the toilet , ” he said .
“ I have respect for wildlife and respect for those that believe seals and sharks need to come back .
But we have a right to survive and exist as well.
” The shark attack in Maine that killed Ms. Holowach in July took place about 30 to 40 feet off the shore of Bailey Island .
Kayakers took Ms. Holowach to shore , but not in time to save her .
Despite the attack , few people are blaming the seals .
Longtime Maine whale @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of seals has contributed to ecotourism .
“ I ’ d prefer that we adapt and we not demand that everything adapt to us , ” Mr. Klyver said .
“ And there ’ s a lot of interest in seals , in seeing them.
” This story was reported by The Associated Press .
AP Writer Michael Casey reported from Boston .

Nick Muto has fished up and down the New England coast, and there is nothing that gets his blood boiling more than the sight of a seal.
Mr. Muto, whose two boats fish for groundfish such as skate and monkfish, as well as lobster, is among a growing group of anglers, beach goers, and local officials who are quick to blame everything from disease to depleted fisheries to increased shark sightings on the exploding seal population.
“Areas that we used to traditionally fish, that were as close to guarantees as you could get, have been strip mined of fish, and the fish have been driven out of there by seals,” Mr. Muto said. “They have eaten fish out of our nets. They have been caught in our nets. They are everywhere.”
The debate over seals was reignited after the death in July of a swimmer killed by a shark off Harpswell, Maine. Seals are often shark prey, and experts believe Julie Holowach may have been mistaken for a seal.
No one questions that seal and shark numbers are on the rise, mostly due to federal protections. It’s estimated there are as many as 50,000 grey seals in New England waters, plus a lesser number of harbor seals. The animals were almost eliminated through hunting and bounties decades ago.
But experts maintain there is not enough science to determine whether the current population is too big, and little basis for culling the marine mammals. Even suggesting seals are destroying fisheries or are solely to blame for shark attacks is not supported by hard evidence. Experts say warming waters and other factors also could be playing a role. The Gulf of Maine, which stretches from Cape Cod to Nova Scotia, has been heating up faster than 99% of the world’s oceans.
“We get into this question of how many grey seals there are. The next question is how many seals should there be, which is kind of where people are going to go next with that, which is a very challenging thing,” said David Johnston, a marine ecologist at Duke University who has done grey seal population estimates using Google Earth and tagged seals to demonstrate how their feeding behavior changes due to sharks in the Northwest Atlantic.
Seal population rise has prompted the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to propose guidelines for deterring the marine mammals, including physical barriers to keep seals away from fishing gear.
“Frustration by fishermen and property owners stemming from conflicts with marine mammals has increased,” notes NOAA’s proposal. The agency is taking comments until Oct. 30.
But Mr. Johnston and Stephanie Wood, a University of Massachusetts Boston seal biologist currently surveying seals in the Boston Harbor, said the public should view seals as a conservation success story, rather than a problem to be managed.
Hunted almost into extinction by the 1900s, seals were given federal protection in 1972 by the Marine Mammal Protection Act. Seals began returning to New England waters in the 1980s and 1990s from Nova Scotia and have thrived ever since – often raising pups on federally protected islands once home to hunting and fishing camps. They also disperse widely and have benefited from a wide-ranging diet, including fish, crustaceans and squid.
“Habitat opened up for seals, which is sort of the opposite story that we hear about a lot of other populations struggling to recover,” said Ms. Wood, noting that other marine mammals such as whales and monk seals “haven’t recovered in the same way.”
Trying to reduce the numbers of seals is more complicated than opening up a hunt for an abundant species such as deer, said Kristina Cammen, a marine mammal scientist with University of Maine. Bounties on seals in the 20th century reduced their populations by as many as 135,000, and marine mammal protections are designed to prevent that kind of population loss again, Ms. Cammen said.
Learning to coexist with the growing seal population makes far more sense, even if it contributes to more shark sightings in coastal waters, she said. “A healthy ecosystem has sharks, seals, and humans and they all have a place in that ecosystem.”
Some species of sharks have rebounded because there are protections for them, not just because there are more seals to eat, said Andrea Bogomolni, chair of Northwest Atlantic Seal Research Consortium, based in Woods Hole, Massachusetts.
“Communicating that message of conservation success entails more than just a single species,” Ms. Bogomolni said.
But seal critics call seals a public safety and ecological crisis and warn there will be more shark attacks if nothing is done. Tourism, too, will suffer, they said.
Some who are alarmed by the seal population burst are advocating culls while others are proposing some form of birth control. One group wants to amend the Marine Mammal Protection Act to allow delisting of species – similar to what’s allowed under the Endangered Species Act. The first step, they argue, would be a study to determine what’s a healthy population of seals for the region.
“Doing nothing is not acceptable to me and not acceptable to other residents of Cape Cod,” Barnstable County Commissioner Ron Beaty said, adding that seals are the “core problem.”
“The quality of life here and our ability to make a living and our economy will go down the toilet,” he said. “I have respect for wildlife and respect for those that believe seals and sharks need to come back. But we have a right to survive and exist as well.”
The shark attack in Maine that killed Ms. Holowach in July took place about 30 to 40 feet off the shore of Bailey Island. Kayakers took Ms. Holowach to shore, but not in time to save her.
Despite the attack, few people are blaming the seals. Longtime Maine whale watch guide Zack Klyver said the growth of seals has contributed to ecotourism.
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“I’d prefer that we adapt and we not demand that everything adapt to us,” Mr. Klyver said. “And there’s a lot of interest in seals, in seeing them.”
This story was reported by The Associated Press. AP Writer Michael Casey reported from Boston.


csmonitor--2020-10-05--Long-term unemployment could complicate US economic recovery

This spring , Magdalena Valiente was expecting her best year as a Florida-based concert promoter .
Now , she wonders if the career she built over three decades is over .
Back in March , Ms. Valiente had been planning five tours for Latin Grammy winners Fonseca and Andrés Cepeda , and more than 20 for Miami Latin pop band Bacilos .
Earning well into six figures during good years , Ms. Valiente was hoping to help her youngest son , a high school junior , pay his way through college .
But with live events canceled , things have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ unemployment benefits and Medicaid , and has applied for food stamps .
She has lost hope that the crisis will end soon .
“ I worked up from the very bottom when I started in this business in my twenties , ” said Ms. Valiente , a single mother in Fort Lauderdale .
“ There weren ’ t many other women , and it was hard .
It ’ s not easy to let it go.
” Millions of Americans in the industries hit hardest by the viral pandemic face a similar plight @ @ @ @ @ @ @ into months , and it ’ s become painfully unclear when , if ever , their jobs will come back .
In the entertainment field where Ms. Valiente worked and in other sectors that absorbed heavy job losses – from restaurants and hotels to energy , higher education , and advertising – employment remains far below pre-pandemic levels .
These trends have raised the specter of a period of widespread long-term unemployment that could turn the viral recession into a more painful , extended downturn .
People who have been jobless for six @ @ @ @ @ @ @ long-term unemployment – typically suffer an erosion of skills and professional networks that makes it harder to find a new job .
Many will need training or education to find work with a new company or in a new occupation , which can delay their re-entry into the job market .
On Friday , the government reported that employers added 661,000 jobs in September , normally a healthy gain .
Yet it marked the third straight monthly slowdown in hiring .
The nation has regained barely half the 22 million jobs that were @ @ @ @ @ @ @ business shutdowns it caused in March and April .
In a worrisome trend , a rising proportion of job losses appear to be permanently gone .
When the virus erupted in March and paralyzed the economy , nearly 90 % of layoffs were considered temporary , and a quick rebound seemed possible .
No longer .
In September , the number of Americans classified as permanently laid off rose 12 % to 3.8 million .
And the number of long-term unemployed rose by 781,000 – the largest increase on record – to 2.4 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ chance of there being massive long-term unemployment , ” said Till Von Wachter , an economics professor at UCLA .
The nation now has 7 % fewer jobs than in February .
Yet the damage is far deeper in some sectors .
The performing arts and spectator sports category , which includes Ms. Valiente ’ s industry , has lost 47 % of its jobs .
It hasn ’ t added any net jobs since the coronavirus struck .
Hotels are down 35 % , restaurants and bars 19 % , transportation 18 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ first expenses that companies cut in a downturn , is down 9 % .
Higher education has lost 9 % of its jobs .
Many classes have been delayed or moved online , reducing the need for janitors , cafeteria workers , and other administrators .
Normally during recessions , the education sector adds jobs to accommodate people returning to school to seek marketable skills or education .
Not this time .
Ashley Broshious took years to develop skills that now seem much less in demand .
A manager and sommelier at a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of just six certified advanced sommeliers in South Carolina .
Still , she was laid off in March .
And when the restaurant owner reopened one of his two establishments , she wasn ’ t rehired .
Now , Ms. Broshious receives about $ 326 a week in unemployment benefits .
That ’ s not nearly enough to pay the $ 2,400 monthly rent on her home , as well as student loans , car insurance , and credit card debt from a trip to Hawaii she took while still working .
“ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this career , ” Ms. Broshious said , “ it ’ s hard to start over.
” Some economists note hopefully that this recovery has progressed faster than many analysts expected and may keep doing so .
Matthew Notowidigdo , an economist at the University of Chicago ’ s Booth School , and three colleagues predicted in a research paper that the rapid recall of temporary workers will lower unemployment to 4.6 % a year from now .
That would suggest a much faster recovery than the previous recession .
Three-quarters of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to look for work , Mr. Notowidigdo said , based on an analysis of government data , apparently because they ’ re confident of being recalled .
And while the number of job openings has declined by about 17 % compared with a year earlier , according to Glassdoor , it remains far higher than during the Great Recession .
In July , the most recent month for which government data is available , there were 2.5 unemployed workers , on average , for each job opening .
That ’ s much better @ @ @ @ @ @ @ during the depths of the Great Recession .
“ There are still a lot of people finding jobs fairly rapidly , ” Mr. Notowidigdo said .
Still , more than one-third of workers who have been laid off or furloughed now regard their job loss as permanent , according to a survey by Morning Consult .
That ’ s up from just 15 % in April .
Some economists , like Sophia Koropeckyj of Moody ’ s Analytics , see rising cause for concern .
Ms. Koropeckyj estimates that 5 million people will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ virus has been controlled .
Jobs likely won ’ t return to pre-pandemic levels until late in 2023 , she said in a research note .
Even among some people who have managed to land new jobs , the pandemic recession has upended their financial lives .
Angela Grimley worked her way up through several Marriott Hotels in Philadelphia to become an event manager , only to have the recession kick her back down the ladder .
After months of unemployment , Ms. Grimley found a part-time job answering customers ’ calls and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ which sells food and souvenirs found only in Pennsylvania .
She loves the work .
And she feels fortunate that her boyfriend , whom she lives with , is still working .
But before the pandemic Ms. Grimley had received a new job offer as a conference and event manager at a marketing company involved in healthy parenting products .
The job would have paid much more and provided health and retirement benefits , which her part-time job doesn ’ t .
But the offer vanished in the pandemic .
The damage to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ night , ” Ms. Grimley said .
Having had to buy health insurance through the Affordable Care Act , she ’ s discovered that some of her doctors won ’ t accept her new insurance .
For Ms. Valiente , no concerts are scheduled until August 2021 .
Yet she ’ s no longer confident that the public will be ready even then for packed concerts of thousands of people .
At 52 , she said , it ’ s hard to contemplate a career change .
“ By the end of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I ’ ll have to come up with a plan B , but I don ’ t know what that will be in the music business , ” Ms. Valiente said .
“ I don ’ t want to go into debt , because I ’ m not young , and I don ’ t have another 30 years of working.
” This story was reported by The Associated Press .
Alexandra Olson reported from New York .

This spring, Magdalena Valiente was expecting her best year as a Florida-based concert promoter. Now, she wonders if the career she built over three decades is over.
Back in March, Ms. Valiente had been planning five tours for Latin Grammy winners Fonseca and Andrés Cepeda, and more than 20 for Miami Latin pop band Bacilos. Earning well into six figures during good years, Ms. Valiente was hoping to help her youngest son, a high school junior, pay his way through college.
But with live events canceled, things have turned bleak. She is relying on unemployment benefits and Medicaid, and has applied for food stamps. She has lost hope that the crisis will end soon.
“I worked up from the very bottom when I started in this business in my twenties,” said Ms. Valiente, a single mother in Fort Lauderdale. “There weren’t many other women, and it was hard. It’s not easy to let it go.”
Millions of Americans in the industries hit hardest by the viral pandemic face a similar plight. Their unemployment has stretched from weeks into months, and it’s become painfully unclear when, if ever, their jobs will come back. In the entertainment field where Ms. Valiente worked and in other sectors that absorbed heavy job losses – from restaurants and hotels to energy, higher education, and advertising – employment remains far below pre-pandemic levels.
These trends have raised the specter of a period of widespread long-term unemployment that could turn the viral recession into a more painful, extended downturn. People who have been jobless for six months or longer – one definition of long-term unemployment – typically suffer an erosion of skills and professional networks that makes it harder to find a new job. Many will need training or education to find work with a new company or in a new occupation, which can delay their re-entry into the job market.
On Friday, the government reported that employers added 661,000 jobs in September, normally a healthy gain. Yet it marked the third straight monthly slowdown in hiring. The nation has regained barely half the 22 million jobs that were lost to the pandemic and the widespread business shutdowns it caused in March and April.
In a worrisome trend, a rising proportion of job losses appear to be permanently gone. When the virus erupted in March and paralyzed the economy, nearly 90% of layoffs were considered temporary, and a quick rebound seemed possible. No longer. In September, the number of Americans classified as permanently laid off rose 12% to 3.8 million. And the number of long-term unemployed rose by 781,000 – the largest increase on record – to 2.4 million.
“We have a real chance of there being massive long-term unemployment,” said Till Von Wachter, an economics professor at UCLA.
The nation now has 7% fewer jobs than in February. Yet the damage is far deeper in some sectors. The performing arts and spectator sports category, which includes Ms. Valiente’s industry, has lost 47% of its jobs. It hasn’t added any net jobs since the coronavirus struck.
Hotels are down 35%, restaurants and bars 19%, transportation 18%. Advertising, one of the first expenses that companies cut in a downturn, is down 9%.
Higher education has lost 9% of its jobs. Many classes have been delayed or moved online, reducing the need for janitors, cafeteria workers, and other administrators. Normally during recessions, the education sector adds jobs to accommodate people returning to school to seek marketable skills or education. Not this time.
Ashley Broshious took years to develop skills that now seem much less in demand. A manager and sommelier at a Charleston restaurant, Ms. Broshious is one of just six certified advanced sommeliers in South Carolina. Still, she was laid off in March. And when the restaurant owner reopened one of his two establishments, she wasn’t rehired.
Now, Ms. Broshious receives about $326 a week in unemployment benefits. That’s not nearly enough to pay the $2,400 monthly rent on her home, as well as student loans, car insurance, and credit card debt from a trip to Hawaii she took while still working.
“When you spend your entire life building this career,” Ms. Broshious said, “it’s hard to start over.”
Some economists note hopefully that this recovery has progressed faster than many analysts expected and may keep doing so. Matthew Notowidigdo, an economist at the University of Chicago’s Booth School, and three colleagues predicted in a research paper that the rapid recall of temporary workers will lower unemployment to 4.6% a year from now. That would suggest a much faster recovery than the previous recession.
Three-quarters of the temporarily laid off aren’t bothering to look for work, Mr. Notowidigdo said, based on an analysis of government data, apparently because they’re confident of being recalled. And while the number of job openings has declined by about 17% compared with a year earlier, according to Glassdoor, it remains far higher than during the Great Recession.
In July, the most recent month for which government data is available, there were 2.5 unemployed workers, on average, for each job opening. That’s much better than the six unemployed per job opening during the depths of the Great Recession.
“There are still a lot of people finding jobs fairly rapidly,” Mr. Notowidigdo said.
Still, more than one-third of workers who have been laid off or furloughed now regard their job loss as permanent, according to a survey by Morning Consult. That’s up from just 15% in April.
Some economists, like Sophia Koropeckyj of Moody’s Analytics, see rising cause for concern. Ms. Koropeckyj estimates that 5 million people will struggle to find work even after the virus has been controlled. Jobs likely won’t return to pre-pandemic levels until late in 2023, she said in a research note.
Even among some people who have managed to land new jobs, the pandemic recession has upended their financial lives.
Angela Grimley worked her way up through several Marriott Hotels in Philadelphia to become an event manager, only to have the recession kick her back down the ladder. After months of unemployment, Ms. Grimley found a part-time job answering customers’ calls and emails for the Pennsylvania General Store, which sells food and souvenirs found only in Pennsylvania.
She loves the work. And she feels fortunate that her boyfriend, whom she lives with, is still working. But before the pandemic Ms. Grimley had received a new job offer as a conference and event manager at a marketing company involved in healthy parenting products. The job would have paid much more and provided health and retirement benefits, which her part-time job doesn’t. But the offer vanished in the pandemic.
The damage to her finances “keeps me up at night,” Ms. Grimley said. Having had to buy health insurance through the Affordable Care Act, she’s discovered that some of her doctors won’t accept her new insurance.
For Ms. Valiente, no concerts are scheduled until August 2021. Yet she’s no longer confident that the public will be ready even then for packed concerts of thousands of people.
At 52, she said, it’s hard to contemplate a career change.
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empower and uplift daily. By signing up, you agree to our Privacy Policy Already a subscriber? Log in to hide ads.
“By the end of the year, if things look worse, I’ll have to come up with a plan B, but I don’t know what that will be in the music business,” Ms. Valiente said. “I don’t want to go into debt, because I’m not young, and I don’t have another 30 years of working.”
This story was reported by The Associated Press. Alexandra Olson reported from New York.