csmonitor--2020-10-06--Nobel Prize in physics celebrates mysteries of black holes

Three scientists won this year ’ s Nobel Prize in physics Tuesday for advancing our understanding of black holes , the all-consuming monsters that lurk in the darkest parts of the universe .
Briton Roger Penrose received half of this year ’ s prize “ for the discovery that black hole formation is a robust prediction of the general theory of relativity , ” the Nobel Committee said .
German Reinhard Genzel and American Andrea Ghez received the second half of the prize “ for the discovery of a supermassive compact object at the center of our galaxy.
” The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ exotic objects in the universe , ” black holes , which have become a staple of science fact and science fiction and where time seems to stand still , according to the committee .
Black holes are perhaps the most mysterious and powerful objects in astronomy .
They are at the center of every galaxy , and smaller ones are dotted around the universe .
Nothing , not even light , can escape their incredible gravity .
They are the ultimate cosmic dead end .
“ Black holes , because they are so @ @ @ @ @ @ @ them so appealing , ’ ’ Dr. Ghez told The Associated Press Tuesday morning .
“ I really think of science as a big , giant puzzle.
” Dr. Penrose proved with mathematics that the formation of black holes was possible , based heavily on Albert Einstein ’ s general theory of relativity .
“ Einstein did not himself believe that black holes really exist , these super-heavyweight monsters that capture everything that enters them , ” the committee said .
“ Nothing can escape , not even light.
” Martin Rees , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Dr. Penrose triggered a “ renaissance ” in the study of relativity in the 1960s , and that , together with a young Stephen Hawking , he helped firm up evidence for the Big Bang and black holes .
“ Penrose and Hawking are the two individuals who have done more than anyone else since Einstein to deepen our knowledge of gravity , ” Dr. Rees said .
“ Sadly , this award was too much delayed to allow Hawking to share the credit.
” Dr. Hawking died in 2018 , and Nobel @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
It wasn ’ t until the 1990s that Dr. Genzel and Dr. Ghez , each leading a group of astronomers , trained their sights on the dust-covered center of our Milky Way galaxy , a region called Sagittarius A* , where something strange was going on .
They both found that there was “ an extremely heavy , invisible object that pulls on the jumble of stars , causing them to rush around at dizzying speeds.
” It was a black hole .
Not just an ordinary black hole , but a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the mass of our sun .
Now scientists know that all galaxies have supermassive black holes .
In 2019 , scientists got the first optical image of a black hole , and Dr. Ghez , who was not involved , praised the discovery .
“ Today we accept these objects are critical to the building blocks of the universe , ” Dr. Ghez told an audience at the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences by phone shortly after the announcement .
Dr. Ghez is the fourth woman to be awarded the Nobel Prize for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Maria Goeppert-Mayer in 1963 , and Donna Strickland in 2018 .
“ I hope I can inspire other young women into the field .
It ’ s a field that has so many pleasures .
And if you ’ re passionate about the science , there ’ s so much that can be done , ” Dr. Ghez said .
The Nobel Committee said black holes “ still pose many questions that beg for answers and motivate future research.
” It is common for several scientists who worked in related fields to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s prize went to Canadian-born cosmologist James Peebles for theoretical work about the early moments after the Big Bang , and Swiss astronomers Michel Mayor and Didier Queloz for discovering a planet outside our solar system .
The prestigious award comes with a gold medal and prize money of $ 1.1 million , courtesy of a bequest left 124 years ago by the prize ’ s creator , Swedish inventor Alfred Nobel .
The amount was increased recently to adjust for inflation .
On Monday , the Nobel Committee awarded the prize for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Alter and Charles M. Rice and British-born scientist Michael Houghton for discovering the liver-ravaging hepatitis C virus .
“ Great science is often a group of people , '' said Dr. Houghton n a press conference .
`` Going forward , we somehow need to incorporate that.
” The other prizes , to be announced in the coming days , are for outstanding work in the fields of chemistry , literature , peace , and economics .
This story was reported by The Associated Press .
Seth Borenstein reported from Kensington , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Berlin contributed to this report .

Three scientists won this year’s Nobel Prize in physics Tuesday for advancing our understanding of black holes, the all-consuming monsters that lurk in the darkest parts of the universe.
Briton Roger Penrose received half of this year’s prize “for the discovery that black hole formation is a robust prediction of the general theory of relativity,” the Nobel Committee said.
German Reinhard Genzel and American Andrea Ghez received the second half of the prize “for the discovery of a supermassive compact object at the center of our galaxy.”
The prize celebrates “one of the most exotic objects in the universe,” black holes, which have become a staple of science fact and science fiction and where time seems to stand still, according to the committee.
Black holes are perhaps the most mysterious and powerful objects in astronomy. They are at the center of every galaxy, and smaller ones are dotted around the universe. Nothing, not even light, can escape their incredible gravity. They are the ultimate cosmic dead end.
“Black holes, because they are so hard to understand, is what makes them so appealing,’’ Dr. Ghez told The Associated Press Tuesday morning. “I really think of science as a big, giant puzzle.”
Dr. Penrose proved with mathematics that the formation of black holes was possible, based heavily on Albert Einstein’s general theory of relativity.
“Einstein did not himself believe that black holes really exist, these super-heavyweight monsters that capture everything that enters them,” the committee said. “Nothing can escape, not even light.”
Martin Rees, the British astronomer royal, noted that Dr. Penrose triggered a “renaissance” in the study of relativity in the 1960s, and that, together with a young Stephen Hawking, he helped firm up evidence for the Big Bang and black holes.
“Penrose and Hawking are the two individuals who have done more than anyone else since Einstein to deepen our knowledge of gravity,” Dr. Rees said. “Sadly, this award was too much delayed to allow Hawking to share the credit.”
Dr. Hawking died in 2018, and Nobel prizes are only awarded to living scientists.
It wasn’t until the 1990s that Dr. Genzel and Dr. Ghez, each leading a group of astronomers, trained their sights on the dust-covered center of our Milky Way galaxy, a region called Sagittarius A*, where something strange was going on.
They both found that there was “an extremely heavy, invisible object that pulls on the jumble of stars, causing them to rush around at dizzying speeds.”
It was a black hole. Not just an ordinary black hole, but a supermassive black hole, 4 million times the mass of our sun.
Now scientists know that all galaxies have supermassive black holes.
In 2019, scientists got the first optical image of a black hole, and Dr. Ghez, who was not involved, praised the discovery.
“Today we accept these objects are critical to the building blocks of the universe,” Dr. Ghez told an audience at the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences by phone shortly after the announcement.
Dr. Ghez is the fourth woman to be awarded the Nobel Prize for physics, after Marie Curie in 1903, Maria Goeppert-Mayer in 1963, and Donna Strickland in 2018.
“I hope I can inspire other young women into the field. It’s a field that has so many pleasures. And if you’re passionate about the science, there’s so much that can be done,” Dr. Ghez said.
The Nobel Committee said black holes “still pose many questions that beg for answers and motivate future research.”
It is common for several scientists who worked in related fields to share the prize. Last year’s prize went to Canadian-born cosmologist James Peebles for theoretical work about the early moments after the Big Bang, and Swiss astronomers Michel Mayor and Didier Queloz for discovering a planet outside our solar system.
The prestigious award comes with a gold medal and prize money of $1.1 million, courtesy of a bequest left 124 years ago by the prize’s creator, Swedish inventor Alfred Nobel. The amount was increased recently to adjust for inflation.
On Monday, the Nobel Committee awarded the prize for physiology and medicine to Americans Harvey J. Alter and Charles M. Rice and British-born scientist Michael Houghton for discovering the liver-ravaging hepatitis C virus.
“Great science is often a group of people," said Dr. Houghton n a press conference."Going forward, we somehow need to incorporate that.”
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The other prizes, to be announced in the coming days, are for outstanding work in the fields of chemistry, literature, peace, and economics.
This story was reported by The Associated Press. Seth Borenstein reported from Kensington, Maryland. AP writer Frank Jordans in Berlin contributed to this report.


csmonitor--2020-10-06--A peace pact’s surprise in Colombia

A peace pact’s surprise in Colombia

If truth is the first casualty of war , telling the truth is the first task of ensuring peace .
In recent weeks , Colombia has shown this is possible with confessions by a former guerrilla group that had waged the longest war in Latin America .
In mid-September , eight former commanders of the far-left FARC ( Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia ) admitted responsibility for thousands of kidnappings during the 52-year conflict that ended with a peace pact in 2016 .
While most of the kidnappings were already known , the group also apologized , acknowledged the suffering @ @ @ @ @ @ @ commitment to being held accountable before the justice system.
” Then on Oct. 3 , Colombians experienced an even more emotional tell-all moment .
Former FARC leaders claimed responsibility for the 1995 murder of a prominent conservative political leader , Álvaro Gómez Hurtado , as well as the killing of five other public figures .
The mystery over who killed the former presidential candidate has perplexed Colombians for a quarter century .
These public admissions are encouraging steps for Colombia ’ s 4-year-old peace pact .
That agreement , which was aimed at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ amnesty to rebels and other militia groups in exchange for truth about their atrocities , remains a model for the world ’ s remaining conflicts .
Much of the pact still needs to be implemented , such as land reform .
But support for restorative justice – rather than retribution – is still high , especially as former FARC leaders steadily integrate into society .
“ The clarification of the truth of the facts of the conflict , however difficult and uncomfortable they may be , is a necessary element for the construction @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Colombian peace manager Álvaro Leyva Durán wrote on Monday .
While FARC has transformed into a political party , violence in Colombia continues at a high rate – mainly by police and drug traffickers .
This only adds pressure to implement the pact ’ s many moving parts , especially truth-telling of past atrocities .
The main demand of the war ’ s surviving victims was to know what happened to their loved ones .
One premise of the peace pact was that personal admissions about violent acts would help dissipate anger and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ showing that is possible .
Or as Mr. Leyva , the former peace manager , wrote , “ We will only save our country if the truth reigns .
”

If truth is the first casualty of war, telling the truth is the first task of ensuring peace. In recent weeks, Colombia has shown this is possible with confessions by a former guerrilla group that had waged the longest war in Latin America.
In mid-September, eight former commanders of the far-left FARC (Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia) admitted responsibility for thousands of kidnappings during the 52-year conflict that ended with a peace pact in 2016. While most of the kidnappings were already known, the group also apologized, acknowledged the suffering it caused, and renewed its “commitment to being held accountable before the justice system.”
Then on Oct. 3, Colombians experienced an even more emotional tell-all moment. Former FARC leaders claimed responsibility for the 1995 murder of a prominent conservative political leader, Álvaro Gómez Hurtado, as well as the killing of five other public figures. The mystery over who killed the former presidential candidate has perplexed Colombians for a quarter century.
These public admissions are encouraging steps for Colombia’s 4-year-old peace pact. That agreement, which was aimed at breaking a cycle of violence by offering amnesty to rebels and other militia groups in exchange for truth about their atrocities, remains a model for the world’s remaining conflicts. Much of the pact still needs to be implemented, such as land reform. But support for restorative justice – rather than retribution – is still high, especially as former FARC leaders steadily integrate into society.
“The clarification of the truth of the facts of the conflict, however difficult and uncomfortable they may be, is a necessary element for the construction of peace and reconciliation,” former Colombian peace manager Álvaro Leyva Durán wrote on Monday.
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While FARC has transformed into a political party, violence in Colombia continues at a high rate – mainly by police and drug traffickers. This only adds pressure to implement the pact’s many moving parts, especially truth-telling of past atrocities. The main demand of the war’s surviving victims was to know what happened to their loved ones.
One premise of the peace pact was that personal admissions about violent acts would help dissipate anger and promote forgiveness and healing. Colombia keeps showing that is possible. Or as Mr. Leyva, the former peace manager, wrote, “We will only save our country if the truth reigns.”


csmonitor--2020-10-06--Notre Dame cathedral survived fire, war, and Napoleon’s redecorating

Despite France ’ s pride in its secularism , Poirier explains that the fire brought forth signs of faith : “ Notre-Dame , a place where the sacred met the secular , reminded us all of where we came from in an unexpected and powerful way.
” The determination to see this landmark rebuilt is testament to the regard that the French have for the cathedral .
“ We thought she was immortal , we thought she was made of imperishable matter , we thought she would bury Paris , she would see the end of times , long after @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” Poirier writes .
The Cathedral of Notre Dame in Paris withstood the Hundred Years ’ War , the French Revolution , and World War II .
Author Agnès Poirier suggests that it endures not simply for the splendor of its design , nor for the backdrop it provided for European history , but for our common attachment to it – a deep-seated connection exemplified in the worldwide reaction to the 2019 blaze .
On April 15 , 2019 , the Cathedral of Notre Dame in Paris caught fire .
Eyewitnesses in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , shaken and silent , as the spire fell , and were on tenterhooks at the thought that its towers could be next .
Author Agnès Poirier vividly re-creates the scene in her superb history of the 800-year-old cathedral , “ Notre-Dame : The Soul of France.
” As the inferno raged , firefighters engaged in “ hand-to-hand combat ” to avoid a total collapse of the structure .
They succeeded , but the fire , which occurred during restoration work , decimated the roof and damaged construction scaffolding .
In June of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ job of removing pieces of scaffolding , after the pandemic had halted reconstruction .
President Emmanuel Macron has vowed the cathedral will reopen in 2024 .
The determination to see this landmark rebuilt is testament to the regard that the French have for the cathedral .
It is more than a historic building : Its history mirrors that of France .
“ We thought she was immortal , we thought she was made of imperishable matter , we thought she would bury Paris , she would see the end of times , long @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , ” Poirier writes .
Following the harrowing summary of the fire itself , Poirier backtracks to the 1100s , sketching Paris as a city teeming with promise .
The bishop of Paris , Maurice de Sully , hired an architect to prepare plans for a cathedral of rare , yet discreet , beauty .
“ We will never know where he came from , whether he was the son of peasants ... or a relative of Louis VII , ” Poirier writes of the unknown original architect .
Unnamed , too , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ who were pressed into service as laborers .
Poirier details the cathedral ’ s design innovations , set in motion by the original architect and retained by his successors , including Eugène Viollet-le-Duc in the 13th century .
She writes that the intent was to project a spartan , stringent grandeur .
“ Her serenity was almost austere.
” Descriptions abound of everything from the smallest iron door fittings to the immense , airy nave .
The book is filled with a remarkable cast of historic figures .
Poirier notes , for example @ @ @ @ @ @ @ handiwork in making the edifice acceptable for his coronation , including the whitewashing of walls and vaults ( which wrecked frescoes ) and the covering of interior stone with fabrics and marble floors with carpets .
Victor Hugo is given a chapter in Poirier ’ s book , thanks to “ The Hunchback of Notre-Dame , ” which still inspires people around the world to care about the cathedral and wish to preserve it .
Poirier calls Hugo ’ s novel “ the book that keeps on looking after Notre-Dame.
” Leapfrogging from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ describes how the cathedral survived the Hundred Years ’ War , the French Revolution ( during which time it was temporarily called the “ Temple of Reason ” ) , and World War II .
Yet Poirier suggests that it endures not simply for the splendor of its design , nor for the backdrop it provided for European history , but for our common attachment to it – a deep-seated connection exemplified in the reaction to the 2019 blaze .
Despite France ’ s pride in its secularism , Poirier writes that the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ Notre-Dame , a place where the sacred met the secular , reminded us all of where we came from in an unexpected and powerful way .
”

Can a structure inspire awe and devotion? More than flying buttresses and rose windows, Notre Dame cathedral has symbolized strength and continuity, not just for Parisians but for people all over the world.
Despite France’s pride in its secularism, Poirier explains that the fire brought forth signs of faith: “Notre-Dame, a place where the sacred met the secular, reminded us all of where we came from in an unexpected and powerful way.”
The determination to see this landmark rebuilt is testament to the regard that the French have for the cathedral. “We thought she was immortal, we thought she was made of imperishable matter, we thought she would bury Paris, she would see the end of times, long after we have all turned to ashes,” Poirier writes.
The Cathedral of Notre Dame in Paris withstood the Hundred Years’ War, the French Revolution, and World War II. Author Agnès Poirier suggests that it endures not simply for the splendor of its design, nor for the backdrop it provided for European history, but for our common attachment to it – a deep-seated connection exemplified in the worldwide reaction to the 2019 blaze.
On April 15, 2019, the Cathedral of Notre Dame in Paris caught fire. Eyewitnesses in the streets and viewers around the world waited, shaken and silent, as the spire fell, and were on tenterhooks at the thought that its towers could be next.
Author Agnès Poirier vividly re-creates the scene in her superb history of the 800-year-old cathedral, “Notre-Dame: The Soul of France.” As the inferno raged, firefighters engaged in “hand-to-hand combat” to avoid a total collapse of the structure. They succeeded, but the fire, which occurred during restoration work, decimated the roof and damaged construction scaffolding. In June of this year, workers returned to the job of removing pieces of scaffolding, after the pandemic had halted reconstruction. President Emmanuel Macron has vowed the cathedral will reopen in 2024.
Simon & Schuster View caption Hide caption “Notre-Dame: The Soul of France” by Agnès Poirier, Oneworld Publications, 240 pp.
The determination to see this landmark rebuilt is testament to the regard that the French have for the cathedral. It is more than a historic building: Its history mirrors that of France. “We thought she was immortal, we thought she was made of imperishable matter, we thought she would bury Paris, she would see the end of times, long after we have all turned to ashes,” Poirier writes.
Why We Wrote This Can a structure inspire awe and devotion? More than flying buttresses and rose windows, Notre Dame cathedral has symbolized strength and continuity, not just for Parisians but for people all over the world.
Following the harrowing summary of the fire itself, Poirier backtracks to the 1100s, sketching Paris as a city teeming with promise. The bishop of Paris, Maurice de Sully, hired an architect to prepare plans for a cathedral of rare, yet discreet, beauty. “We will never know where he came from, whether he was the son of peasants ... or a relative of Louis VII,” Poirier writes of the unknown original architect. Unnamed, too, are the bishop’s serfs, who were pressed into service as laborers.
Poirier details the cathedral’s design innovations, set in motion by the original architect and retained by his successors, including Eugène Viollet-le-Duc in the 13th century. She writes that the intent was to project a spartan, stringent grandeur. “Her serenity was almost austere.” Descriptions abound of everything from the smallest iron door fittings to the immense, airy nave.
The book is filled with a remarkable cast of historic figures. Poirier notes, for example, Napoleon’s meticulous if gaudy handiwork in making the edifice acceptable for his coronation, including the whitewashing of walls and vaults (which wrecked frescoes) and the covering of interior stone with fabrics and marble floors with carpets.
Victor Hugo is given a chapter in Poirier’s book, thanks to “The Hunchback of Notre-Dame,” which still inspires people around the world to care about the cathedral and wish to preserve it. Poirier calls Hugo’s novel “the book that keeps on looking after Notre-Dame.”
Get stories that
empower and uplift daily. By signing up, you agree to our Privacy Policy Already a subscriber? Log in to hide ads.
Leapfrogging from one historical epoch to another, Poirier describes how the cathedral survived the Hundred Years’ War, the French Revolution (during which time it was temporarily called the “Temple of Reason”), and World War II. Yet Poirier suggests that it endures not simply for the splendor of its design, nor for the backdrop it provided for European history, but for our common attachment to it – a deep-seated connection exemplified in the reaction to the 2019 blaze.
Despite France’s pride in its secularism, Poirier writes that the fire brought forth signs of faith: “Notre-Dame, a place where the sacred met the secular, reminded us all of where we came from in an unexpected and powerful way.”


csmonitor--2020-10-06--American suburbs are changing, and so are their politics

When Katherine Rutigliano and her husband moved away from San Francisco in 2013 , they figured they would never meet a fellow Democrat again .
But housing was affordable around Phoenix .
No more cramped condo .
No more suffocating mortgage payments .
No more tech-boom exhaustion .
Everything would be easier for them and their kids in the suburbs – everything , that is , except talking politics with neighbors .
Then came an unexpected visitor at the door .
It was a Democratic volunteer rounding up votes ahead of the 2018 Senate election .
Ms. Rutigliano invited her @ @ @ @ @ @ @ iPad .
She was elated to see all the flashing lights that marked where Democrats lived in her stucco neighborhood on the northern edge of Phoenix .
These San Francisco transplants were not alone .
“ It was like Christmas , ” said Ms. Rutigliano , a mother of three and trained chef who is now sending out mailers for local Democrats .
Ms. Rutigliano didn ’ t realize it , but she had moved her family to what is now the front lines in American politics .
Once firmly in Republican control @ @ @ @ @ @ @ divided – a rare common ground shared by Republicans and Democrats .
As such , they are poised to decide not just who wins the White House this year but also who controls the Senate and the contours of the debate over guns , immigration , work , schools , housing , and health care for years to come .
The reasons for the shift are many .
Suburbs have grown more racially diverse , more educated , more economically prosperous , and more liberal – all factors making them more likely to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ scientists are just as likely to point to another trend : density .
Suburbs have grown more crowded , looking more and more like cities , and voting like them , too .
For decades , an area ’ s population per square mile has been a reliable indicator of its political tilt .
Denser areas vote Democratic , less dense areas vote Republican .
The correlation between density and voting has been getting stronger , as people began to sort themselves by ethnicity , education , personality , income , and lifestyle @ @ @ @ @ @ @ can be quantified , averaged , and applied to most American cities .
At around 800 households per square mile , the blue of Democratic areas starts to bleed into red Republican neighborhoods .
A purple ring – call it the flip zone – emerges through the suburbs .
But the midterm elections of 2018 showed that the flip zone has moved in the era of President Donald Trump , with dramatic consequences .
When Democratic candidates across the country penetrated deeper into the suburbs , finding voters farther away from the city @ @ @ @ @ @ @ districts and won a majority of the chamber .
An Associated Press analysis of recent election results and density shows Democrats in Arizona moved the flip zone 2 miles deeper into the suburbs from 2016 to 2018 , reaching right to the northern edge of Interstate 101 in Phoenix into areas filled with cul-de-sacs of homes and backyards large enough for swimming pools .
The shift helped them win a Senate seat for the first time in 24 years .
The AP ’ s analysis essentially maps the challenge Mr. Trump and his @ @ @ @ @ @ @ shows the president trailing Democrat Joe Biden badly in many key suburbs in battleground states .
To hold the White House and control of the Senate , he and his party must stop the flip zone from moving farther out again .
Republicans are working against the recent trend in metros across the country .
In 2018 in Milwaukee , the flip zone moved out less than half a mile as Wisconsin elected a Democratic governor .
Its distance from city hall grew 2.6 miles in Richmond , Virginia , helping deliver the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ House majority leader , Eric Cantor .
Many political scientists think the trend toward political segregation has put the Democratic Party at a disadvantage .
Its voters are more concentrated in cities .
Republicans are dispersed across larger areas , making it easier for that party to draw favorable districts and win a majority of legislative seats even if it loses the total vote count .
In 2018 , Wisconsin Democrats received 53 % of state assembly votes , yet they hold only 36 of the 99 seats in the chamber .
Under @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the modern era won the White House despite losing the popular vote .
The geographic divide has also had a real impact on policy and politics .
The needs of cities and farm towns are often perceived as being in conflict – a tug of war between Republican and Democratic voters over resources .
Cliché campaign ads might show acres of wheat and bustling cities , but the United States is a suburban nation .
AP VoteCast , a survey of the electorate , found that 52 % of voters in 2018 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s not surprising that Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden have been tussling over suburban voters for months .
Mr. Trump has suggested that efforts to racially integrate the suburbs would destroy those communities with crime and poverty , despite clear data showing that many suburbs are increasingly diverse .
Now the suburbs are the places delivering a referendum on Mr. Trump .
And neatly manicured neighborhoods conceal a more complicated political biosphere .
Living in Glendale to the northwest of Phoenix , Marshall Militano turned on his computer two years ago and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Democrat .
He and his wife cried after he told her .
“ I want our country to get back to calm , ” he said .
“ I ’ m not talking about kumbaya – I ’ m talking about rational .
We haven ’ t done anything in this country in four years except hate.
” Along the same streets , Republican Michael Nudo sees the new partisan tensions .
Mr. Nudo grew up in the flip zone – when it was more securely Republican territory .
During his freshman year @ @ @ @ @ @ @ their house to foreclosure as millions of other Americans did during the Great Recession .
Then their rental house was foreclosed on , and they had to move again .
The experience instilled in him a conservative belief that the government , like families , must be financially responsible .
Now Mr. Nudo sees that housing crash as the beginning of another wave of change in his hometown – “ a huge turnover.
” As the economy recovered , big companies relocated workers from around the country .
Others moved in chasing low @ @ @ @ @ @ @ their politics with them .
The Phoenix area became splintered .
“ You can walk across the street and be in a whole other community , whole other city , ” he said .
“ But they ’ re your neighbors.
” This story was reported by The Associated Press .

Angeliki Kastanis, Josh Boak, and Dario Lopez-Mills

When Katherine Rutigliano and her husband moved away from San Francisco in 2013, they figured they would never meet a fellow Democrat again.
But housing was affordable around Phoenix. No more cramped condo. No more suffocating mortgage payments. No more tech-boom exhaustion. Everything would be easier for them and their kids in the suburbs – everything, that is, except talking politics with neighbors.
Then came an unexpected visitor at the door. It was a Democratic volunteer rounding up votes ahead of the 2018 Senate election.
Ms. Rutigliano invited her in and inspected the map on her iPad. She was elated to see all the flashing lights that marked where Democrats lived in her stucco neighborhood on the northern edge of Phoenix.
These San Francisco transplants were not alone.
“It was like Christmas,” said Ms. Rutigliano, a mother of three and trained chef who is now sending out mailers for local Democrats.
Ms. Rutigliano didn’t realize it, but she had moved her family to what is now the front lines in American politics. Once firmly in Republican control, suburbs like hers are increasingly politically divided – a rare common ground shared by Republicans and Democrats.
As such, they are poised to decide not just who wins the White House this year but also who controls the Senate and the contours of the debate over guns, immigration, work, schools, housing, and health care for years to come.
The reasons for the shift are many. Suburbs have grown more racially diverse, more educated, more economically prosperous, and more liberal – all factors making them more likely to vote Democratic. But demographers and political scientists are just as likely to point to another trend: density. Suburbs have grown more crowded, looking more and more like cities, and voting like them, too.
For decades, an area’s population per square mile has been a reliable indicator of its political tilt. Denser areas vote Democratic, less dense areas vote Republican. The correlation between density and voting has been getting stronger, as people began to sort themselves by ethnicity, education, personality, income, and lifestyle.
The pattern is so reliable it can be quantified, averaged, and applied to most American cities. At around 800 households per square mile, the blue of Democratic areas starts to bleed into red Republican neighborhoods.
A purple ring – call it the flip zone – emerges through the suburbs.
But the midterm elections of 2018 showed that the flip zone has moved in the era of President Donald Trump, with dramatic consequences. When Democratic candidates across the country penetrated deeper into the suburbs, finding voters farther away from the city, they flipped a net 39 House districts and won a majority of the chamber.
An Associated Press analysis of recent election results and density shows Democrats in Arizona moved the flip zone 2 miles deeper into the suburbs from 2016 to 2018, reaching right to the northern edge of Interstate 101 in Phoenix into areas filled with cul-de-sacs of homes and backyards large enough for swimming pools. The shift helped them win a Senate seat for the first time in 24 years.
The AP’s analysis essentially maps the challenge Mr. Trump and his Republican Party are facing today. Polling shows the president trailing Democrat Joe Biden badly in many key suburbs in battleground states. To hold the White House and control of the Senate, he and his party must stop the flip zone from moving farther out again.
Republicans are working against the recent trend in metros across the country. In 2018 in Milwaukee, the flip zone moved out less than half a mile as Wisconsin elected a Democratic governor. Its distance from city hall grew 2.6 miles in Richmond, Virginia, helping deliver the congressional seat once held by a conservative House majority leader, Eric Cantor.
Many political scientists think the trend toward political segregation has put the Democratic Party at a disadvantage. Its voters are more concentrated in cities. Republicans are dispersed across larger areas, making it easier for that party to draw favorable districts and win a majority of legislative seats even if it loses the total vote count. In 2018, Wisconsin Democrats received 53% of state assembly votes, yet they hold only 36 of the 99 seats in the chamber. Under the Electoral College, Republicans have twice in the modern era won the White House despite losing the popular vote.
The geographic divide has also had a real impact on policy and politics. The needs of cities and farm towns are often perceived as being in conflict – a tug of war between Republican and Democratic voters over resources.
Suburban nation
Cliché campaign ads might show acres of wheat and bustling cities, but the United States is a suburban nation.
AP VoteCast, a survey of the electorate, found that 52% of voters in 2018 said they live in suburbia. It’s not surprising that Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden have been tussling over suburban voters for months.
Mr. Trump has suggested that efforts to racially integrate the suburbs would destroy those communities with crime and poverty, despite clear data showing that many suburbs are increasingly diverse.
Now the suburbs are the places delivering a referendum on Mr. Trump. And neatly manicured neighborhoods conceal a more complicated political biosphere.
Living in Glendale to the northwest of Phoenix, Marshall Militano turned on his computer two years ago and switched his voter registration from independent to Democrat. He and his wife cried after he told her.
“I want our country to get back to calm,” he said. “I’m not talking about kumbaya – I’m talking about rational. We haven’t done anything in this country in four years except hate.”
Along the same streets, Republican Michael Nudo sees the new partisan tensions. Mr. Nudo grew up in the flip zone – when it was more securely Republican territory. During his freshman year in high school, his family lost their house to foreclosure as millions of other Americans did during the Great Recession. Then their rental house was foreclosed on, and they had to move again.
The experience instilled in him a conservative belief that the government, like families, must be financially responsible.
Now Mr. Nudo sees that housing crash as the beginning of another wave of change in his hometown – “a huge turnover.” As the economy recovered, big companies relocated workers from around the country. Others moved in chasing low housing prices and lower taxes and bringing their politics with them. The Phoenix area became splintered.
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“You can walk across the street and be in a whole other community, whole other city,” he said. “But they’re your neighbors.”
This story was reported by The Associated Press.


csmonitor--2020-10-06--Why both parties are courting Wisconsin's Hispanic voters

Both presidential campaigns see Wisconsin ’ s growing Hispanic population as an important voting bloc in the upcoming election , but they are not a monolithic group , and young voters are divided and disheartened by their choices .
President Donald Trump has long antagonized the Mexican immigrant community , labeling those crossing the border illegally as drug dealers , rapists , and “ some … good people ” when he launched his 2016 campaign .
During his presidency his administration separated families and imprisoned children as part of a crackdown on illegal border crossings .
But former Vice President @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on Mr. Trump ’ s rhetoric and actions .
Nadxely Sanchez , a Milwaukee resident who turned 19 in September , said Mr. Biden ’ s lack of support during the Democratic primary for a clear path to citizenship for immigrants , particularly those who were brought here as children , initially discouraged her from supporting him .
“ He didn ’ t give clear answers and he didn ’ t give answers that many of my friends , and people who I know are voting , were hoping for , ” she @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the only other [ major party ] candidate going against Trump , you kind of feel obliged to vote for him , even though he ’ s not our top choice.
” The Hispanic electorate is the fastest-growing demographic in Wisconsin , particularly in the southeastern region of the state .
According to the United States Census Bureau , the percentage of Wisconsinites who identify as Hispanic has almost doubled since 2000 , from 3.6 % to 7.1 % last year , the State Journal reported .
But historically the group has not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to Christine Neumann-Ortiz , executive director of Voces de la Frontera , a statewide advocate for immigrant and low-wage worker rights based in Milwaukee .
As Hispanic voters could play a big role in winning a key swing state in November , both presidential campaigns have stepped up culturally specific outreach efforts in an attempt to overcome the lack of enthusiasm felt by voters .
Ms. Neumann-Ortiz attributed the lack of resources devoted to win over Hispanic voters in Wisconsin in past elections to low turnout among Hispanic voters , as well as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ made up 4 % of Wisconsin voters in 2016 election exit polls .
Of those surveyed , 63 % voted for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and 34 % cast their ballot for Mr. Trump .
A composite of Marquette Law School Poll results from August 2019 through September 2020 shows Mr. Biden leading Mr. Trump 55 % to 30 % among Hispanic voters , according to poll director Charles Franklin .
The margin of error is +/-6 percentage points , signifying little shift from the 2016 results .
Despite his poor @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Trump has made inroads in recent months .
“ A lot of people in the Latino community who , before the last six months , would not even utter the word ‘ Trump , ’ some of them are coming out of the closet saying ‘ Well I didn ’ t support him last time but I support him now , ’ ” said Damaris Pérez Maldonado , a conservative voter from Racine .
“ I ’ ve been shocked at my own family and friends who have said , ‘ Yeah we @ @ @ @ @ @ @ or many of them who say , ‘ We ’ re just staying home because we just don ’ t like either one of them.
’ ” Ms. Pérez Maldonado said friends and family pointed to recent unrest after police shootings of Black Americans across the country , as well as COVID-19-related stimulus payments , when asked why they plan to support Mr. Trump in the upcoming election .
But delays in the next round of stimulus payments could also sway voters .
“ A lot of people really translate that as ‘ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” she said .
“ Most people are waiting for the next one and if that doesn ’ t come through I think they ’ ll either vote against Trump or stay home.
” In Milwaukee , a number of low-income districts and those predominantly populated by people of color saw a significant decrease in voter turnout between the 2012 and 2016 elections .
But , districts with significant Hispanic populations didn ’ t see as sharp a decrease , in part because of culturally specific voter outreach efforts in down-ballot races .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ Wisconsin GOP recently opened a field office in the Historic Mitchell Street Neighborhood of Milwaukee , an area with a majority Hispanic population , to supplement past party efforts to engage voters .
They ’ ve conducted more virtual events , amid COVID-19 , as well as some in-person events to push Mr. Trump ’ s reelection platform , and they ’ re focusing on economic issues which they believe will motivate the electorate .
“ A lot of these folks came from countries that experienced government socialism and its effect on their @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s agenda , ” said Mark Jefferson , executive director of the Republican Party of Wisconsin .
“ I think those contrasts play well with center-right and swing voters so where there are opportunities , we need to be aggressive and take advantage of them.
” Rep. JoCasta Zamarripa , D-Milwaukee , a Biden surrogate and member of the campaign ’ s National Latino Leadership Committee , outlined a number of national and Wisconsin-specific voter initiatives that launched online during this campaign , including a social media strategy to target young Hispanic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in Wisconsin ; the rollout of a Hispanic-specific agenda ; the launch of Todos con Biden , a statewide coalition of Hispanic voters ; and a racial and equity roundtable .
“ These conversations [ and ] this rollout are imperative so that our people can have that discussion , that conversation of what we expect moving forward , ” Ms. Zamarripa said .
She said the stark contrast between the two candidates regarding the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program ( DACA ) , a wedge issue among Hispanic voters , has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ members of the demographic .
Mr. Trump ’ s attempt to end DACA was struck down by the U.S. Supreme Court in June , but it remains in the forefront of the minds of young Hispanic voters as they plan to cast their ballots in November .
A number of Ms. Sanchez ’ s friends are DACA recipients , a fact that will inform how she votes for the first time in a presidential race .
“ It makes me hyper-aware of the candidate ’ s policy , their outlook toward DACA and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ they take the presidency , ” she said .
The embattled program was enacted by the Obama administration in 2012 to protect undocumented immigrants who arrived in the U.S. as children from deportation .
Mr. Trump attempted to follow through on a 2016 campaign promise to dismantle DACA by ordering the program to end in September 2017 but was challenged in court by a number of plaintiffs .
By the time the battle reached the U.S. Supreme Court , nearly 700,000 young immigrants sought protection from deportation through the program , thousands of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the high court determined the Trump administration had not followed the proper protocol to end DACA in a 5-4 vote , allowing the program to remain in place for the time being .
Mr. Trump said in June that he plans to attempt to end the program again and denounced the Supreme Court decision in what has become a rallying cry for many young Hispanic voters as they plan to vote against the incumbent this fall .
But Mr. Trump ’ s approach has worked for some .
Alex Ledezma , a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ he plans to vote for Mr. Trump in the upcoming election , regardless of his attempt to end DACA .
Mr. Ledezma , who is a first-generation American , said Republicans and Democrats have punted on immigration for decades .
He believes the incumbent was the first president to attempt to fix what Mr. Ledezma called a broken system .
“ No one has actually gone to the root cause of this issue , everyone is just trying to fix the surface , ” he said .
“ The law is , if @ @ @ @ @ @ @ deportation.
” According to a recent Pew Research Center poll , 59 % of registered voters who identify as Hispanic said that immigration was very important to their vote in the 2020 presidential election .
The Trump campaign ’ s rhetoric against members of Hispanic communities during the 2016 election and the Trump administration ’ s subsequent separation of families at the border , as well as the attempt to end DACA , could work against Mr. Trump come fall .
Republican Party leaders in Wisconsin noted the incumbent must be more careful @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Republicans have to be cognizant of how we say things , Mr. Jefferson said of Mr. Trump ’ s effort to win over Hispanic voters .
“ We have to be careful to differentiate between folks who played by the rules and those who came in the country illegally , ” he said .
Mr. Biden ’ s record as vice president could discourage young Hispanic voters as well , because of the significant number of deportations that took place during the Obama administration .
“ I know that there ’ s that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ There is some hurt there and we need to have that dialogue ” between the Biden campaign and Hispanic communities .
Voces de la Frontera Acción created Voceros por el Voto ( Spokespersons for the Vote ) in 2018 to focus on voter outreach within Wisconsin ’ s Hispanic communities .
That year , 400 spokespersons were organized over a six-week period to help educate voters ahead of the midterm elections in Wisconsin .
The voceros then branched out to build a network of voters within their communities and encouraged those voters @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
In August 2020 , the Vocero program boasted a combined network of roughly 13,500 voters and outreach members , with the goal of getting to 23,000 voters by November , Ms. Neumann-Ortiz said .
The Democratic Party hopes to tap into those 23,000 voters to help Mr. Biden in Wisconsin in November .
Vice presidential nominee Sen. Kamala Harris , D-Calif. , gained the organization ’ s endorsement after a closed-door meeting with members in early September .
“ When the margins are so small [ like they were in 2016 ] @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to determining elections , ” Ms. Neumann-Ortiz said .
This story was reported by the Wisconsin State Journal and distributed by The Associated Press .

Both presidential campaigns see Wisconsin’s growing Hispanic population as an important voting bloc in the upcoming election, but they are not a monolithic group, and young voters are divided and disheartened by their choices.
President Donald Trump has long antagonized the Mexican immigrant community, labeling those crossing the border illegally as drug dealers, rapists, and “some … good people” when he launched his 2016 campaign. During his presidency his administration separated families and imprisoned children as part of a crackdown on illegal border crossings.
But former Vice President Joe Biden hasn’t necessarily capitalized on Mr. Trump’s rhetoric and actions. Nadxely Sanchez, a Milwaukee resident who turned 19 in September, said Mr. Biden’s lack of support during the Democratic primary for a clear path to citizenship for immigrants, particularly those who were brought here as children, initially discouraged her from supporting him.
“He didn’t give clear answers and he didn’t give answers that many of my friends, and people who I know are voting, were hoping for,” she said. “But because he is the only other [major party] candidate going against Trump, you kind of feel obliged to vote for him, even though he’s not our top choice.”
The Hispanic electorate is the fastest-growing demographic in Wisconsin, particularly in the southeastern region of the state. According to the United States Census Bureau, the percentage of Wisconsinites who identify as Hispanic has almost doubled since 2000, from 3.6% to 7.1% last year, the State Journal reported.
But historically the group has not been courted by presidential campaigns, according to Christine Neumann-Ortiz, executive director of Voces de la Frontera, a statewide advocate for immigrant and low-wage worker rights based in Milwaukee.
As Hispanic voters could play a big role in winning a key swing state in November, both presidential campaigns have stepped up culturally specific outreach efforts in an attempt to overcome the lack of enthusiasm felt by voters.
Ms. Neumann-Ortiz attributed the lack of resources devoted to win over Hispanic voters in Wisconsin in past elections to low turnout among Hispanic voters, as well as the still small population.
Hispanic voters made up 4% of Wisconsin voters in 2016 election exit polls. Of those surveyed, 63% voted for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and 34% cast their ballot for Mr. Trump.
A composite of Marquette Law School Poll results from August 2019 through September 2020 shows Mr. Biden leading Mr. Trump 55% to 30% among Hispanic voters, according to poll director Charles Franklin. The margin of error is +/-6 percentage points, signifying little shift from the 2016 results.
Despite his poor performance among Hispanics, some believe Mr. Trump has made inroads in recent months.
“A lot of people in the Latino community who, before the last six months, would not even utter the word ‘Trump,’ some of them are coming out of the closet saying ‘Well I didn’t support him last time but I support him now,’” said Damaris Pérez Maldonado, a conservative voter from Racine. “I’ve been shocked at my own family and friends who have said, ‘Yeah we’re totally voting for Trump’ or many of them who say, ‘We’re just staying home because we just don’t like either one of them.’”
Ms. Pérez Maldonado said friends and family pointed to recent unrest after police shootings of Black Americans across the country, as well as COVID-19-related stimulus payments, when asked why they plan to support Mr. Trump in the upcoming election. But delays in the next round of stimulus payments could also sway voters.
“A lot of people really translate that as ‘Trump sent me a check,’” she said. “Most people are waiting for the next one and if that doesn’t come through I think they’ll either vote against Trump or stay home.”
In Milwaukee, a number of low-income districts and those predominantly populated by people of color saw a significant decrease in voter turnout between the 2012 and 2016 elections. But, districts with significant Hispanic populations didn’t see as sharp a decrease, in part because of culturally specific voter outreach efforts in down-ballot races.
Both parties have taken notice.
The Wisconsin GOP recently opened a field office in the Historic Mitchell Street Neighborhood of Milwaukee, an area with a majority Hispanic population, to supplement past party efforts to engage voters. They’ve conducted more virtual events, amid COVID-19, as well as some in-person events to push Mr. Trump’s reelection platform, and they’re focusing on economic issues which they believe will motivate the electorate.
“A lot of these folks came from countries that experienced government socialism and its effect on their communities and they contrast with President Trump’s agenda,” said Mark Jefferson, executive director of the Republican Party of Wisconsin. “I think those contrasts play well with center-right and swing voters so where there are opportunities, we need to be aggressive and take advantage of them.”
Rep. JoCasta Zamarripa, D-Milwaukee, a Biden surrogate and member of the campaign’s National Latino Leadership Committee, outlined a number of national and Wisconsin-specific voter initiatives that launched online during this campaign, including a social media strategy to target young Hispanic voters; weekly Spanish language phone banks in Wisconsin; the rollout of a Hispanic-specific agenda; the launch of Todos con Biden, a statewide coalition of Hispanic voters; and a racial and equity roundtable.
“These conversations [and] this rollout are imperative so that our people can have that discussion, that conversation of what we expect moving forward,” Ms. Zamarripa said.
She said the stark contrast between the two candidates regarding the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program (DACA), a wedge issue among Hispanic voters, has become a flashpoint that has motivated younger members of the demographic.
Mr. Trump’s attempt to end DACA was struck down by the U.S. Supreme Court in June, but it remains in the forefront of the minds of young Hispanic voters as they plan to cast their ballots in November.
A number of Ms. Sanchez’s friends are DACA recipients, a fact that will inform how she votes for the first time in a presidential race.
“It makes me hyper-aware of the candidate’s policy, their outlook toward DACA and how they’ll handle it once they take the presidency,” she said.
The embattled program was enacted by the Obama administration in 2012 to protect undocumented immigrants who arrived in the U.S. as children from deportation. Mr. Trump attempted to follow through on a 2016 campaign promise to dismantle DACA by ordering the program to end in September 2017 but was challenged in court by a number of plaintiffs.
By the time the battle reached the U.S. Supreme Court, nearly 700,000 young immigrants sought protection from deportation through the program, thousands of whom reside in Wisconsin. In June, the high court determined the Trump administration had not followed the proper protocol to end DACA in a 5-4 vote, allowing the program to remain in place for the time being.
Mr. Trump said in June that he plans to attempt to end the program again and denounced the Supreme Court decision in what has become a rallying cry for many young Hispanic voters as they plan to vote against the incumbent this fall. But Mr. Trump’s approach has worked for some.
Alex Ledezma, a Madison resident and college student, said he plans to vote for Mr. Trump in the upcoming election, regardless of his attempt to end DACA. Mr. Ledezma, who is a first-generation American, said Republicans and Democrats have punted on immigration for decades. He believes the incumbent was the first president to attempt to fix what Mr. Ledezma called a broken system.
“No one has actually gone to the root cause of this issue, everyone is just trying to fix the surface,” he said. “The law is, if you come here illegally unfortunately you face deportation.”
According to a recent Pew Research Center poll, 59% of registered voters who identify as Hispanic said that immigration was very important to their vote in the 2020 presidential election.
The Trump campaign’s rhetoric against members of Hispanic communities during the 2016 election and the Trump administration’s subsequent separation of families at the border, as well as the attempt to end DACA, could work against Mr. Trump come fall. Republican Party leaders in Wisconsin noted the incumbent must be more careful with his words this election cycle.
Republicans have to be cognizant of how we say things, Mr. Jefferson said of Mr. Trump’s effort to win over Hispanic voters. “We have to be careful to differentiate between folks who played by the rules and those who came in the country illegally,” he said.
Mr. Biden’s record as vice president could discourage young Hispanic voters as well, because of the significant number of deportations that took place during the Obama administration.
“I know that there’s that pain,” Ms. Zamarripa said. “There is some hurt there and we need to have that dialogue” between the Biden campaign and Hispanic communities.
Voces de la Frontera Acción created Voceros por el Voto (Spokespersons for the Vote) in 2018 to focus on voter outreach within Wisconsin’s Hispanic communities. That year, 400 spokespersons were organized over a six-week period to help educate voters ahead of the midterm elections in Wisconsin. The voceros then branched out to build a network of voters within their communities and encouraged those voters to branch out as voceros as well.
In August 2020, the Vocero program boasted a combined network of roughly 13,500 voters and outreach members, with the goal of getting to 23,000 voters by November, Ms. Neumann-Ortiz said.
The Democratic Party hopes to tap into those 23,000 voters to help Mr. Biden in Wisconsin in November. Vice presidential nominee Sen. Kamala Harris, D-Calif., gained the organization’s endorsement after a closed-door meeting with members in early September.
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“When the margins are so small [like they were in 2016], the Latino vote is absolutely essential to determining elections,” Ms. Neumann-Ortiz said.
This story was reported by the Wisconsin State Journal and distributed by The Associated Press.


csmonitor--2020-10-06--Why the pressure is on for this year's vice presidential debate

This week ’ s vice presidential debate has taken on an outsized and perhaps unprecedented significance , with questions about President Donald Trump ’ s health now looming over the election less than a month away .
Vice President Mike Pence ’ s sole face-off against Sen. Kamala Harris , Democratic nominee Joe Biden ’ s running mate , scheduled for Wednesday in Salt Lake City , comes as the Trump campaign reels from a COVID-19 outbreak that has infected not only the Republican president but several in his inner circle .
The pressure on Mr. Pence , who often @ @ @ @ @ @ @ shadow , is great .
Mr. Trump trails Mr. Biden by 10 percentage points nationally , according to a new Reuters/Ipsos poll , with voters faulting what they viewed as the president ’ s carelessness about the pandemic .
Mr. Pence needs to show the public he is ready to step in as president if the situation requires , while also defending the Trump administration ’ s handling of a 7-month-old health crisis that has killed nearly 210,000 Americans .
For her part , Ms. Harris , who has largely stayed out of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Biden ramped up campaign travel , must demonstrate to voters that she , too , could assume the presidency if needed at some point in Mr. Biden ’ s tenure should he win the election .
Traditionally , the vice presidential debate is considered an afterthought to the three presidential debates , watched by fewer voters and viewed as almost irrelevant in terms of shifting public opinion .
“ This debate is different , ” said Christopher Devine , an expert on the vice presidency at the University of Dayton .
“ Some @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and how he may perform if called upon .
And there are questions about Joe Biden ’ s ability to stay healthy.
” Mr. Trump returned to the White House on Monday following a three-day stay at Walter Reed National Military Medical Center where he was treated for his illness .
While doctors say he is recovering , it remains uncertain when he will be able to resume campaign activities .
Trump campaign spokesman Tim Murtaugh said on Monday the president intended to participate in the next scheduled debate with Mr. Biden on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will also be charged with trying to slow the Biden-Harris momentum , something Mr. Trump was unable to do in his unruly debate with Mr. Biden last week .
Mr. Trump struggled to make a case for his re-election and often resorted to insults to try to rattle Mr. Biden .
Mr. Pence , a talented and even-tempered communicator who once hosted a radio show while a member of the U.S. House of Representatives , can be more effective on a debate stage than the undisciplined Mr. Trump , said Michael Steel , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ House when Mr. Steel was an aide to then-Speaker of the House John Boehner .
“ The vice president can make a more cogent and thoughtful case for the Trump administration ’ s record than almost anyone else , ” Mr. Steel said .
“ He ’ s in a position to have a much stronger debate than the president.
” But , Mr. Steel added : “ I don ’ t know how much that matters.
” Reuters/Ipsos polling has shown the presidential race to be relatively stable , with Mr. Biden @ @ @ @ @ @ @ small set of undecided voters who have yet to make up their minds .
More than 3.8 million Americans already have voted ahead of the Nov. 3 Election Day , according to the University of Florida , which tracks the early vote .
A Biden campaign official told Reuters the campaign was prepared for Mr. Pence to launch attacks on Ms. Harris suggesting she is to the left of the mainstream of the Democratic Party , along with other allegations that Mr. Biden ’ s campaign says are untrue about his son Hunter @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on China .
The official conceded that Mr. Pence was a strong debater , but “ just because Mike Pence can deliver a line doesn ’ t make it true.
” Ms. Harris , a former Democratic presidential contender , cemented her reputation as a skilled questioner at the 2018 hearings for now-Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh .
She will “ make a very forceful case ” that Mr. Biden is the right leader for the moment , the Biden official said .
Ms. Harris has panned the administration ’ s coronavirus response @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , she will have to thread the needle between renewing those criticisms without attacking the recovering Trump personally , Mr. Devine said .
“ It ’ s a delicate balance , ” Mr. Devine said .
“ Harris is probably better prepared than most , having been on the national stage before.
” During a series of primary debates last year , Ms. Harris had to navigate how to take shots at Mr. Biden , a beloved party statesman , without alienating swaths of Democratic voters .
Her criticism of Mr. Biden ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ earned her media attention but may have backfired with the electorate .
She ended her campaign in December .
Coronavirus protocols at the debate on Wednesday will be strengthened following Mr. Trump ’ s diagnosis .
Mr. Pence and Ms. Harris will be seated more than 12 feet apart on the stage , farther than the 7 feet that separated the lecterns at the Sept. 29 debate between Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden .
The candidates will also be separated by a plexiglass barrier during the debate , as requested by the Biden @ @ @ @ @ @ @ members of the media , will be required to get tested for COVID-19 .
The debates commission said anyone not wearing a mask would be “ escorted out.
” Masks were mandatory at the Cleveland presidential debate venue , but some people , including members of Mr. Trump ’ s family , could be seen removing them .
This story was reported by Reuters .

This week’s vice presidential debate has taken on an outsized and perhaps unprecedented significance, with questions about President Donald Trump’s health now looming over the election less than a month away.
Vice President Mike Pence’s sole face-off against Sen. Kamala Harris, Democratic nominee Joe Biden’s running mate, scheduled for Wednesday in Salt Lake City, comes as the Trump campaign reels from a COVID-19 outbreak that has infected not only the Republican president but several in his inner circle.
The pressure on Mr. Pence, who often toils in Mr. Trump’s deep shadow, is great. Mr. Trump trails Mr. Biden by 10 percentage points nationally, according to a new Reuters/Ipsos poll, with voters faulting what they viewed as the president’s carelessness about the pandemic.
Mr. Pence needs to show the public he is ready to step in as president if the situation requires, while also defending the Trump administration’s handling of a 7-month-old health crisis that has killed nearly 210,000 Americans.
For her part, Ms. Harris, who has largely stayed out of the spotlight in recent weeks as Mr. Biden ramped up campaign travel, must demonstrate to voters that she, too, could assume the presidency if needed at some point in Mr. Biden’s tenure should he win the election.
Traditionally, the vice presidential debate is considered an afterthought to the three presidential debates, watched by fewer voters and viewed as almost irrelevant in terms of shifting public opinion.
“This debate is different,” said Christopher Devine, an expert on the vice presidency at the University of Dayton. “Some people may be worrying about Mike Pence and how he may perform if called upon. And there are questions about Joe Biden’s ability to stay healthy.”
Mr. Trump returned to the White House on Monday following a three-day stay at Walter Reed National Military Medical Center where he was treated for his illness. While doctors say he is recovering, it remains uncertain when he will be able to resume campaign activities.
Trump campaign spokesman Tim Murtaugh said on Monday the president intended to participate in the next scheduled debate with Mr. Biden on Oct. 15 in Miami.
Mr. Pence will also be charged with trying to slow the Biden-Harris momentum, something Mr. Trump was unable to do in his unruly debate with Mr. Biden last week. Mr. Trump struggled to make a case for his re-election and often resorted to insults to try to rattle Mr. Biden.
Mr. Pence, a talented and even-tempered communicator who once hosted a radio show while a member of the U.S. House of Representatives, can be more effective on a debate stage than the undisciplined Mr. Trump, said Michael Steel, who worked with Mr. Pence in the House when Mr. Steel was an aide to then-Speaker of the House John Boehner.
“The vice president can make a more cogent and thoughtful case for the Trump administration’s record than almost anyone else,” Mr. Steel said. “He’s in a position to have a much stronger debate than the president.”
But, Mr. Steel added: “I don’t know how much that matters.”
Attack lines
Reuters/Ipsos polling has shown the presidential race to be relatively stable, with Mr. Biden consistently holding a lead nationally and a small set of undecided voters who have yet to make up their minds. More than 3.8 million Americans already have voted ahead of the Nov. 3 Election Day, according to the University of Florida, which tracks the early vote.
A Biden campaign official told Reuters the campaign was prepared for Mr. Pence to launch attacks on Ms. Harris suggesting she is to the left of the mainstream of the Democratic Party, along with other allegations that Mr. Biden’s campaign says are untrue about his son Hunter Biden and Mr. Biden’s stance on China.
The official conceded that Mr. Pence was a strong debater, but “just because Mike Pence can deliver a line doesn’t make it true.”
Ms. Harris, a former Democratic presidential contender, cemented her reputation as a skilled questioner at the 2018 hearings for now-Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh. She will “make a very forceful case” that Mr. Biden is the right leader for the moment, the Biden official said.
Ms. Harris has panned the administration’s coronavirus response headed by Mr. Pence. On Wednesday, she will have to thread the needle between renewing those criticisms without attacking the recovering Trump personally, Mr. Devine said.
“It’s a delicate balance,” Mr. Devine said. “Harris is probably better prepared than most, having been on the national stage before.”
During a series of primary debates last year, Ms. Harris had to navigate how to take shots at Mr. Biden, a beloved party statesman, without alienating swaths of Democratic voters. Her criticism of Mr. Biden’s past record on forced school busing earned her media attention but may have backfired with the electorate. She ended her campaign in December.
Coronavirus protocols at the debate on Wednesday will be strengthened following Mr. Trump’s diagnosis.
Mr. Pence and Ms. Harris will be seated more than 12 feet apart on the stage, farther than the 7 feet that separated the lecterns at the Sept. 29 debate between Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden. The candidates will also be separated by a plexiglass barrier during the debate, as requested by the Biden campaign.
All debate attendees, including members of the media, will be required to get tested for COVID-19. The debates commission said anyone not wearing a mask would be “escorted out.”
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Masks were mandatory at the Cleveland presidential debate venue, but some people, including members of Mr. Trump’s family, could be seen removing them.
This story was reported by Reuters.


csmonitor--2020-10-07--A jungle has developed in my digital library

Way back last century , when cameras first went digital , my husband , Dave , thought I should get one .
He said it would be really useful for my artwork .
I didn ’ t want it , because I ’ d have to learn something new , and sometimes that makes me cranky .
He bought it for me anyway .
A week later , I wanted to draw a picture of a tyrannosaur peering through ginkgo leaves – as one does – but I didn ’ t have any reference material for a ginkgo tree .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ by , too . )
So I took my new camera a couple of blocks away and fired off some shots of a local ginkgo tree .
My computer hoovered them right up and displayed them for me .
I had to admit , it was slick .
It took better pictures than my fancy camera , and the images cost nothing to process .
Now I could point it outside my window and take a hundred pictures in a row of my resident hummingbird , Hannibal Nectar , just in case he @ @ @ @ @ @ @ got the bright magenta iridescent flash .
Three or four of the images would be terrific , but all hundred of them would be in my computer .
I ’ ve now taken 4 billion photographs or so , and they ’ re all in that machine somewhere .
I never labeled anything , and I still don ’ t know where the cloud is .
So if I need to find a photo , I have to remember about when I took it , and that is not my strong suit .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ to name three things that happened to me in the ’ 80s , I wouldn ’ t be able to stick a pin into any one thing for certain .
One of the things would have really taken place in some other decade , and one of them would have happened to somebody else altogether that I have confused myself with .
There has to be a way of organizing these things .
Somewhere I have a good photo of an automobile completely covered in moss .
It would be a great illustration @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
I needed it once , and by the time I ’ d flipped through all 4 billion photos on my machine I realized I could take a new photo of a different mossy car faster than I could find the original , and I was right .
I don ’ t know where anything is in my photo library , and I have no idea what to do about it .
It ’ s like riffling through my entire vocabulary in alphabetical order to find the end of my sentence .
In @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s exactly like that .
I do love this technology .
But I miss the old photo albums .
I remember which photos are in the thin green album , and which are in the thick brown one .
And they ’ re more fun .
Your friends will tell you that they want to see the photo of your puppy on your cellphone , but they ’ re just being polite .
Everyone is so tired of looking at a screen .
People do still like pawing through the old albums @ @ @ @ @ @ @ albums ; flip a couple of pages , and you gain a few years .
They look at pictures of you 30 years younger , and then look back at you like you ’ re a cautionary tale .
They ’ re alarmed , but entertained .
Someday my computer will blow up and take my photos with it , and that will be that .
It ’ s just as well .
I still have the old albums .
I ’ ve put on a few pixels since then .

Way back last century, when cameras first went digital, my husband, Dave, thought I should get one. He said it would be really useful for my artwork. I didn’t want it, because I’d have to learn something new, and sometimes that makes me cranky. He bought it for me anyway. A week later, I wanted to draw a picture of a tyrannosaur peering through ginkgo leaves – as one does – but I didn’t have any reference material for a ginkgo tree. (The tyrannosaur was hard to come by, too.) So I took my new camera a couple of blocks away and fired off some shots of a local ginkgo tree. My computer hoovered them right up and displayed them for me. I had to admit, it was slick.
It took better pictures than my fancy camera, and the images cost nothing to process. Now I could point it outside my window and take a hundred pictures in a row of my resident hummingbird, Hannibal Nectar, just in case he turned his head just right and I got the bright magenta iridescent flash. Three or four of the images would be terrific, but all hundred of them would be in my computer.
I’ve now taken 4 billion photographs or so, and they’re all in that machine somewhere. I never labeled anything, and I still don’t know where the cloud is. So if I need to find a photo, I have to remember about when I took it, and that is not my strong suit.
In fact, if you asked me to name three things that happened to me in the ’80s, I wouldn’t be able to stick a pin into any one thing for certain. One of the things would have really taken place in some other decade, and one of them would have happened to somebody else altogether that I have confused myself with.
There has to be a way of organizing these things. Somewhere I have a good photo of an automobile completely covered in moss. It would be a great illustration for an essay about our local climate. I needed it once, and by the time I’d flipped through all 4 billion photos on my machine I realized I could take a new photo of a different mossy car faster than I could find the original, and I was right. I don’t know where anything is in my photo library, and I have no idea what to do about it. It’s like riffling through my entire vocabulary in alphabetical order to find the end of my sentence.
In fact, I happen to know it’s exactly like that.
I do love this technology. But I miss the old photo albums. I remember which photos are in the thin green album, and which are in the thick brown one. And they’re more fun. Your friends will tell you that they want to see the photo of your puppy on your cellphone, but they’re just being polite.
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empower and uplift daily. By signing up, you agree to our Privacy Policy Already a subscriber? Log in to hide ads.
Everyone is so tired of looking at a screen. People do still like pawing through the old albums. Time passes more reasonably in the albums; flip a couple of pages, and you gain a few years.
They look at pictures of you 30 years younger, and then look back at you like you’re a cautionary tale. They’re alarmed, but entertained. Someday my computer will blow up and take my photos with it, and that will be that. It’s just as well. I still have the old albums. I’ve put on a few pixels since then.


csmonitor--2020-10-07--In the Trump economy, echoes of Hoover and Carter?

Yale University political scientist Stephen Skowronek says Mr. Trump appears to fit a pattern of previous “ disjunctive ” presidents , such as Herbert Hoover and Jimmy Carter , who came at the end of political eras .
They tried but failed to reform their aging political coalitions and instead gave way to the New Deal of Franklin Roosevelt and the Reagan conservative revolution .
Steps such as tariffs open the door for Democrats to employ similar restrictions in their quest for fair trade .
Instead of relying on the trickle-down or free-trade philosophies of his predecessors , he has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ boosting manufacturing jobs in the United States .
Several of the projects he ’ s touted have either foundered or been delayed , yet the focus on Americans who don ’ t have desk jobs may well endure .
Pieces of his economic vision are transformative .
Take China .
While previous administrations prodded Beijing to open up to Western goods and services , Mr. Trump has recast it as a geopolitical rival , quite likely setting a tone for future presidents .
Voters like to broad-brush their presidents ’ economic policies : @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Trump ’ s economic projects have rarely , if ever , fulfilled his over-the-top rhetoric , it would be wrong to dismiss them wholesale .
Even before he officially took the reins of office , Donald Trump has sought to use his presidency to rebuild hope in blue-collar America .
There were the jobs at the Carrier air-conditioning factory in Indianapolis that , as president-elect , he “ saved ” from going to Mexico ; the huge Foxconn deal in southern Wisconsin – the “ eighth wonder of the world , ” President @ @ @ @ @ @ @ TV manufacturing back to the United States ; and U.S. Steel ’ s $ 1.5 billion investment in southwestern Pennsylvania that would bring state-of-the-art steel casting back to U.S. shores .
They are shimmering symbols for the president ’ s vision for a once and now great again America – bright because of the rhetoric Mr. Trump employs , shimmering because the results are , at best , hazy .
Has he really changed the economy – and in a way that helps blue-collar workers ?
All presidents , of course , have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ forces and unforeseen events , such as a pandemic , can sink any president ’ s agenda .
And a fractious Congress can stymie new efforts .
For several months the economy ’ s need for new coronavirus relief has gone unmet , partly due to Mr. Trump ’ s own negotiating tactics but also because of the disconnect between a Democratic-controlled House and Senate Republicans with a distaste for more stimulus packages .
On Tuesday , Mr. Trump sent stock markets skidding after tweeting that he was ending stimulus discussions with House @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with tweets suggesting a narrower stimulus could still be passed .
This week ’ s volatility could be an apt symbol of this presidency ’ s course on the economy .
In some ways it may prove transformative – such as in trade relations with China .
On other fronts , his efforts may not prove pathbreaking but rather a last gasp of ideas like massive tax cuts , which are now under strain .
Some policy experts even say his tenure could be one of those rare end-of-an-era presidencies in which a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as well as in the future .
“ Part of their genius – and I wouldn ’ t exclude Trump from this as all – is their understanding that the old established regime has lost control , ” says Stephen Skowronek , a Yale political scientist .
These presidents break some norms to try to meet new and unanticipated challenges : Herbert Hoover used federal spending to try to stimulate the economy during the Depression ; Jimmy Carter started deregulating industries and appointed an inflation-fighter to head the Federal Reserve and fight the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ someone in the New Deal tradition committed to preserving jobs .
Often they are outsiders who tout their non-Washington credentials and unique skills to revitalize increasingly creaky coalitions .
But their reforms are too timid because they ’ re still tied to the old regime , argues Mr. Skowronek , author of a forthcoming book , “ Phantoms of a Beleaguered Republic : The Deep State and the Unitary Executive.
” Just as Hoover heralded the end of post-Civil War laissez-faire Republicanism and Mr. Carter was the last of the New Deal Democrats @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the end of the Reagan revolution .
These “ disjunctive presidents , ” as Mr. Skowronek calls them , tend to become failed one-term presidents who give way to transformative presidents who build a new coalition around a set of ideas often foreshadowed by the policies of their predecessors .
Franklin Roosevelt boosted stimulus spending far beyond what Hoover dreamed ; Ronald Reagan made deregulation a central part of his movement to get government off people ’ s backs .
In the case of President Trump , the failures are visible : The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ production to Mexico and now employs fewer workers than when the president intervened .
U.S. Steel has delayed indefinitely its investment in the Mon Valley Works .
And the Foxconn project , originally intended to create 13,000 manufacturing jobs , has so far created only about 800 and has been dramatically scaled back to become a technology hub with assembly and packaging operations – hardly the eighth wonder of Wisconsin , let alone the world .
Yet , it would be a mistake to dismiss his economic vision , economists and historians say @ @ @ @ @ @ @ workers that have been passed by by the New Economy .
For decades , administrations on both sides of the political spectrum left factory workers in the cold , saying in essence that globalization was here to stay , that their jobs were no longer valuable , and to get the education and training to do something else .
If the president hasn ’ t realized the dream of a U.S. manufacturing revival , he has put their concerns on the map .
One of the administration ’ s key achievements , for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ changed Americans ’ views on China .
While his predecessors viewed it as a country that , with some prodding , would gradually open its economy to Western goods and services , Mr. Trump has recast the vision as a U.S. rival whose ways are incompatible with Western economic practices .
To counter it , he has employed punishing tariffs , turning conservative free-trade policies on their head .
“ The president has been a game-changer there , ” says Douglas Irwin , a trade economist at Dartmouth College .
“ It will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pull back those tariffs without a major agreement on China.
” In fact , China poses an unprecedented geopolitical challenge to the U.S. – both an economic and national security rival – which presidents will have to grapple with for decades to come , says Iwan Morgan , professor of U.S. studies at University College London .
But a new trade stance toward China , and other manufacturing nations , remains a work in progress .
Mr. Trump struggled to reach even a first phase agreement with China while threatening more tariffs against @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for him to create a coalition of nations to counter Beijing .
The president ’ s tax cuts represent another signature achievement , yet far from a clear win for average workers .
Besides cutting individual tax rates , which primarily benefited the wealthy , the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act also lowered corporate tax rates to globally competitive levels – something previous Republican and Democratic administrations had tried but failed to do .
The tax cuts link Mr. Trump with the supply-side philosophy of President Reagan , yet have added to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ being further expanded by the coronavirus pandemic .
And although unemployment for Black Americans fell to historic lows just prior to the pandemic , on other fronts the president has failed to address economic concerns of an increasingly diverse America .
His 2017 tax law created “ opportunity zones ” to encourage community development .
Yet the zones aren ’ t creating the many jobs they were intended to , says Jorge Gonzales , a research analyst with the Urban Institute .
The pandemic downturn has certainly reversed the gains of racial minorities @ @ @ @ @ @ @ July repeated , “ I ’ ve done more for Black Americans than anybody with the possible exception of Abraham Lincoln.
” “ It is not only inaccurate , it ’ s cringeworthy , “ says Darrick Hamilton , a professor of economics and urban policy at the New School in New York .
“ It ’ s hard to take President Trump seriously , but it ’ s also dangerous not to take him seriously.
” In Mr. Hamiltion ’ s view , African Americans have fared worse under President Trump because @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that could be used for job creation and direct help to households , opportunity zones may lead to gentrification and more inequality , and the wealth gap has continued to widen .
Now the pandemic has widened gaps in the U.S. economy still further , along lines of race , gender , and whether livelihoods are based on in-person services like restaurants or theme parks .
Even in coal country , early job gains under the current administration have evaporated .
Just because President Trump may fit a historical pattern doesn ’ t @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Mr. Skowronek says .
He could break the “ disjunctive ” mold by being reelected .
Perhaps more significant , win or lose , history suggests that parts of his economic vision will remain relevant .
Editor ’ s note : As a public service , we have removed our paywall for all pandemic-related stories .

Yale University political scientist Stephen Skowronek says Mr. Trump appears to fit a pattern of previous “disjunctive” presidents, such as Herbert Hoover and Jimmy Carter, who came at the end of political eras. They tried but failed to reform their aging political coalitions and instead gave way to the New Deal of Franklin Roosevelt and the Reagan conservative revolution.
Steps such as tariffs open the door for Democrats to employ similar restrictions in their quest for fair trade. Instead of relying on the trickle-down or free-trade philosophies of his predecessors, he has tried to help blue-collar workers directly by boosting manufacturing jobs in the United States. Several of the projects he’s touted have either foundered or been delayed, yet the focus on Americans who don’t have desk jobs may well endure.
The pandemic unexpectedly altered the course of the U.S. economy. But has President Trump still put a lasting stamp on it? Sometimes even a mixed track record can mark an inflection point.
Pieces of his economic vision are transformative. Take China. While previous administrations prodded Beijing to open up to Western goods and services, Mr. Trump has recast it as a geopolitical rival, quite likely setting a tone for future presidents.
Voters like to broad-brush their presidents’ economic policies: success or failure. While President Donald Trump’s economic projects have rarely, if ever, fulfilled his over-the-top rhetoric, it would be wrong to dismiss them wholesale.
Even before he officially took the reins of office, Donald Trump has sought to use his presidency to rebuild hope in blue-collar America.
There were the jobs at the Carrier air-conditioning factory in Indianapolis that, as president-elect, he “saved” from going to Mexico; the huge Foxconn deal in southern Wisconsin – the “eighth wonder of the world,” President Trump called it – that would bring TV manufacturing back to the United States; and U.S. Steel’s $1.5 billion investment in southwestern Pennsylvania that would bring state-of-the-art steel casting back to U.S. shores.
They are shimmering symbols for the president’s vision for a once and now great again America – bright because of the rhetoric Mr. Trump employs, shimmering because the results are, at best, hazy. Has he really changed the economy – and in a way that helps blue-collar workers?
Why We Wrote This The pandemic unexpectedly altered the course of the U.S. economy. But has President Trump still put a lasting stamp on it? Sometimes even a mixed track record can mark an inflection point.
All presidents, of course, have limited control over the economy. Global forces and unforeseen events, such as a pandemic, can sink any president’s agenda. And a fractious Congress can stymie new efforts. For several months the economy’s need for new coronavirus relief has gone unmet, partly due to Mr. Trump’s own negotiating tactics but also because of the disconnect between a Democratic-controlled House and Senate Republicans with a distaste for more stimulus packages.
On Tuesday, Mr. Trump sent stock markets skidding after tweeting that he was ending stimulus discussions with House Democrats, then sent them soaring Wednesday with tweets suggesting a narrower stimulus could still be passed.
This week’s volatility could be an apt symbol of this presidency’s course on the economy. In some ways it may prove transformative – such as in trade relations with China. On other fronts, his efforts may not prove pathbreaking but rather a last gasp of ideas like massive tax cuts, which are now under strain.
Some policy experts even say his tenure could be one of those rare end-of-an-era presidencies in which a leader has a foot in the past as well as in the future.
“Part of their genius – and I wouldn’t exclude Trump from this at all – is their understanding that the old established regime has lost control,” says Stephen Skowronek, a Yale political scientist.
Hoover, Carter ... and Trump?
These presidents break some norms to try to meet new and unanticipated challenges: Herbert Hoover used federal spending to try to stimulate the economy during the Depression; Jimmy Carter started deregulating industries and appointed an inflation-fighter to head the Federal Reserve and fight the era’s stagflation, rather than someone in the New Deal tradition committed to preserving jobs.
Often they are outsiders who tout their non-Washington credentials and unique skills to revitalize increasingly creaky coalitions. But their reforms are too timid because they’re still tied to the old regime, argues Mr. Skowronek, author of a forthcoming book, “Phantoms of a Beleaguered Republic: The Deep State and the Unitary Executive.”
Just as Hoover heralded the end of post-Civil War laissez-faire Republicanism and Mr. Carter was the last of the New Deal Democrats, so Mr. Trump may well signal the end of the Reagan revolution. These “disjunctive presidents,” as Mr. Skowronek calls them, tend to become failed one-term presidents who give way to transformative presidents who build a new coalition around a set of ideas often foreshadowed by the policies of their predecessors.
Franklin Roosevelt boosted stimulus spending far beyond what Hoover dreamed; Ronald Reagan made deregulation a central part of his movement to get government off people’s backs.
In the case of President Trump, the failures are visible: The Carrier factory eventually moved some of its production to Mexico and now employs fewer workers than when the president intervened. U.S. Steel has delayed indefinitely its investment in the Mon Valley Works. And the Foxconn project, originally intended to create 13,000 manufacturing jobs, has so far created only about 800 and has been dramatically scaled back to become a technology hub with assembly and packaging operations – hardly the eighth wonder of Wisconsin, let alone the world.
Yet, it would be a mistake to dismiss his economic vision, economists and historians say.
The Trump rhetoric hits home with workers that have been passed by by the New Economy. For decades, administrations on both sides of the political spectrum left factory workers in the cold, saying in essence that globalization was here to stay, that their jobs were no longer valuable, and to get the education and training to do something else. If the president hasn’t realized the dream of a U.S. manufacturing revival, he has put their concerns on the map.
A shift on China
One of the administration’s key achievements, for example, is how it has fundamentally changed Americans’ views on China. While his predecessors viewed it as a country that, with some prodding, would gradually open its economy to Western goods and services, Mr. Trump has recast the vision as a U.S. rival whose ways are incompatible with Western economic practices. To counter it, he has employed punishing tariffs, turning conservative free-trade policies on their head.
“The president has been a game-changer there,” says Douglas Irwin, a trade economist at Dartmouth College. “It will be difficult for any future administration to pull back those tariffs without a major agreement on China.”
In fact, China poses an unprecedented geopolitical challenge to the U.S. – both an economic and national security rival – which presidents will have to grapple with for decades to come, says Iwan Morgan, professor of U.S. studies at University College London.
But a new trade stance toward China, and other manufacturing nations, remains a work in progress. Mr. Trump struggled to reach even a first phase agreement with China while threatening more tariffs against close allies, making it more difficult for him to create a coalition of nations to counter Beijing.
The president’s tax cuts represent another signature achievement, yet far from a clear win for average workers. Besides cutting individual tax rates, which primarily benefited the wealthy, the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act also lowered corporate tax rates to globally competitive levels – something previous Republican and Democratic administrations had tried but failed to do.
The tax cuts link Mr. Trump with the supply-side philosophy of President Reagan, yet have added to a U.S. national debt that is now being further expanded by the coronavirus pandemic.
Millions of workers struggling
And although unemployment for Black Americans fell to historic lows just prior to the pandemic, on other fronts the president has failed to address economic concerns of an increasingly diverse America.
His 2017 tax law created “opportunity zones” to encourage community development. Yet the zones aren’t creating the many jobs they were intended to, says Jorge González, a research analyst with the Urban Institute.
The pandemic downturn has certainly reversed the gains of racial minorities since 2016. Yet Mr. Trump in July repeated, “I’ve done more for Black Americans than anybody with the possible exception of Abraham Lincoln.”
“It is not only inaccurate, it’s cringeworthy,“ says Darrick Hamilton, a professor of economics and urban policy at the New School in New York. “It’s hard to take President Trump seriously, but it’s also dangerous not to take him seriously.”
In Mr. Hamiltion’s view, African Americans have fared worse under President Trump because his tax cuts have starved federal revenues that could be used for job creation and direct help to households, opportunity zones may lead to gentrification and more inequality, and the wealth gap has continued to widen.
Now the pandemic has widened gaps in the U.S. economy still further, along lines of race, gender, and whether livelihoods are based on in-person services like restaurants or theme parks. Even in coal country, early job gains under the current administration have evaporated.
Get stories that
empower and uplift daily. By signing up, you agree to our Privacy Policy Already a subscriber? Log in to hide ads.
Just because President Trump may fit a historical pattern doesn’t mean he’s bound by it, Mr. Skowronek says. He could break the “disjunctive” mold by being reelected. Perhaps more significant, win or lose, history suggests that parts of his economic vision will remain relevant.
Editor’s note: As a public service, we have removed our paywall for all pandemic-related stories.