csmonitor--2020-10-07--‘Packing the court’ and partisan politics: Three questions

And Adam Levitin , a professor of law at Georgetown University , has proposed expanding the court to 33 justices and randomly picking three-justice panels for each case .
This plan , he says , offers a bipartisan path from the winner-take-all structure of today ’ s court and could help mollify the now-contentious nomination process .
Congress could also limit the Supreme Court ’ s influence by using an obscure constitutional ability to curtail the court ’ s jurisdiction – effectively letting Congress declare certain laws unreviewable by the high court .
There are other options available .
Politicians @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 18-year term limit on justices , so that two would be replaced every four-year presidential term , bringing predictability to the appointment process .
But experts question whether such a reform would require a constitutional amendment .
Politically , meddling with the Supreme Court ’ s size is a dangerous venture that could provoke what one legal scholar calls “ an endless cycle of tit-for-tat court-packing.
” President Donald Trump ’ s nomination of Judge Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court of the United States has stirred a cyclone of frustration among @ @ @ @ @ @ @ trying to increase the number of seats on the high court .
Such “ court-packing ” plans may be feasible but are highly controversial .
President Donald Trump ’ s nomination of Judge Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court of the United States has stirred a cyclone of frustration among congressional Democrats .
Threatening recourse , Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer reportedly told his caucus that `` nothing is off the table for next year.
” For some , that may mean reshaping the table itself .
Some Democrats are considering trying @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the high court .
Such “ court packing ” plans may be feasible but are highly controversial .
Why are there nine justices ?
There haven ’ t always been .
Article III of the U.S. Constitution , which describes the judiciary , is so spare that the court ’ s purpose and size has morphed over time .
“ It 's rather striking how little there is in the Constitution about the courts as opposed to about Congress or the presidency , ” says Adam Levitin , a professor of law at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 's like it was an afterthought for the founders.
” The number of justices began at six , proportional to the number of circuits – or regions – in the judiciary .
Each circuit had its own justice , and as the country expanded the court did as well .
The court grew to its largest during the Civil War , when President Abraham Lincoln added a 10th justice .
Afterward , Congress chose to shrink the court by one justice rather than cooperate with the besmirched President Andrew Johnson .
The court @ @ @ @ @ @ @ changes in structure were again considered until the Supreme Court struck down several of Franklin Delano Roosevelt ’ s marquee New Deal programs in 1935 and 1936 .
With more programs on the line , Roosevelt proposed a two-part bill to get his way .
One provision reinstated pensions for retiring justices .
Another would have added a seat to the court for every justice over 70-and-a-half who didn ’ t retire – potentially inflating the court to 15 seats .
Though Democrats held enormous majorities in the House and Senate , Congressional @ @ @ @ @ @ @ passed only the pension plan .
That alone enticed one conservative justice to retire , and some believe the entire debate encouraged the court to rule more favorably on FDR ’ s programs – though this fabled “ switch in time that saved nine ” is debated .
In the next few years , Roosevelt appointed seven of the nine justices on the court .
In part due to the backlash against this plan , changing the court ’ s size wasn ’ t seriously considered again until Republicans blockaded Merrick Garland ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the implications of new calls to pack the court ?
Ordinary legislation is enough to change the Supreme Court ’ s size .
But such political meddling is a dangerous venture .
It was disastrous for FDR and it could be for Democrats again today , says Lucas Powe Jr. , a professor of government at the University of Texas at Austin School of Law and former clerk for Justice William O. Douglas .
Even with public outcry over perceived minority rule , such a change would “ leave some bitter people – @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
That resentment could provoke a game of Congressional brinkmanship , or “ an endless cycle of tit-for-tat court-packing accompanying successive changes in party control of the political branches , ” writes Barry Cushman , University of Notre Dame professor of law , political science , and history , in an email .
It could also blight the court ’ s legitimacy , he writes , and perhaps tear apart fragile coalitions in Congress today .
Are there alternatives to court packing ?
Yes .
Politicians on both sides have suggested imposing an @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that two would be replaced every four-year presidential term , bringing predictability to the appointment process .
Rep. Ro Khanna , a California Democrat , in September proposed such a bill , though experts question whether it would require a constitutional amendment .
Congress could also curtail the court 's jurisdiction through a rarely used constitutional power – effectively letting Congress declare certain laws unreviewable by the high court .
But doing so would be certain to launch new legal battles .
And in a more sweeping reform , Professor Levitin has proposed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ randomly picking three-justice panels for each case .
This plan , he says , offers a bipartisan path from the winner-take-all structure of today ’ s court and could help mollify the now-contentious nomination process .

And Adam Levitin, a professor of law at Georgetown University, has proposed expanding the court to 33 justices and randomly picking three-justice panels for each case. This plan, he says, offers a bipartisan path from the winner-take-all structure of today’s court and could help mollify the now-contentious nomination process.
Congress could also limit the Supreme Court’s influence by using an obscure constitutional ability to curtail the court’s jurisdiction – effectively letting Congress declare certain laws unreviewable by the high court.
There are other options available. Politicians on both sides have suggested imposing an 18-year term limit on justices, so that two would be replaced every four-year presidential term, bringing predictability to the appointment process. But experts question whether such a reform would require a constitutional amendment.
Legal scholars caution that efforts to “pack the court” could launch a tit-for-tat fight over the least-political branch of the government. But there are other paths that would avoid blowing up the Supreme Court.
Politically, meddling with the Supreme Court’s size is a dangerous venture that could provoke what one legal scholar calls “an endless cycle of tit-for-tat court-packing.”
President Donald Trump’s nomination of Judge Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court of the United States has stirred a cyclone of frustration among congressional Democrats. Some lawmakers are considering trying to increase the number of seats on the high court. Such “court-packing” plans may be feasible but are highly controversial.
President Donald Trump’s nomination of Judge Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court of the United States has stirred a cyclone of frustration among congressional Democrats. Threatening recourse, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer reportedly told his caucus that "nothing is off the table for next year.”
For some, that may mean reshaping the table itself. Some Democrats are considering trying to increase the number of seats on the high court. Such “court packing” plans may be feasible but are highly controversial.
Why are there nine justices?
Why We Wrote This Legal scholars caution that efforts to “pack the court” could launch a tit-for-tat fight over the least-political branch of the government. But there are other paths that would avoid blowing up the Supreme Court.
There haven’t always been. Article III of the U.S. Constitution, which describes the judiciary, is so spare that the court’s purpose and size has morphed over time.
“It's rather striking how little there is in the Constitution about the courts as opposed to about Congress or the presidency,” says Adam Levitin, a professor of law at Georgetown University in Washington. “It's like it was an afterthought for the founders.”
The number of justices began at six, proportional to the number of circuits – or regions – in the judiciary. Each circuit had its own justice, and as the country expanded the court did as well.
The court grew to its largest during the Civil War, when President Abraham Lincoln added a 10th justice. Afterward, Congress chose to shrink the court by one justice rather than cooperate with the besmirched President Andrew Johnson. The court has since remained at nine.
No changes in structure were again considered until the Supreme Court struck down several of Franklin Delano Roosevelt’s marquee New Deal programs in 1935 and 1936.
With more programs on the line, Roosevelt proposed a two-part bill to get his way. One provision reinstated pensions for retiring justices. Another would have added a seat to the court for every justice over 70-and-a-half who didn’t retire – potentially inflating the court to 15 seats.
Though Democrats held enormous majorities in the House and Senate, Congressional leaders considered this scheme an overreach and passed only the pension plan. That alone enticed one conservative justice to retire, and some believe the entire debate encouraged the court to rule more favorably on FDR’s programs – though this fabled “switch in time that saved nine” is debated. In the next few years, Roosevelt appointed seven of the nine justices on the court.
In part due to the backlash against this plan, changing the court’s size wasn’t seriously considered again until Republicans blockaded Merrick Garland’s nomination in 2015.
What are the implications of new calls to pack the court?
Ordinary legislation is enough to change the Supreme Court’s size. But such political meddling is a dangerous venture. It was disastrous for FDR and it could be for Democrats again today, says Lucas Powe Jr., a professor of government at the University of Texas at Austin School of Law and former clerk for Justice William O. Douglas.
Even with public outcry over perceived minority rule, such a change would “leave some bitter people – sore losers,” says Professor Powe.
That resentment could provoke a game of Congressional brinkmanship, or “an endless cycle of tit-for-tat court-packing accompanying successive changes in party control of the political branches,” writes Barry Cushman, University of Notre Dame professor of law, political science, and history, in an email.
It could also blight the court’s legitimacy, he writes, and perhaps tear apart fragile coalitions in Congress today.
Are there alternatives to court packing?
Yes. Politicians on both sides have suggested imposing an 18-year term limit on justices, so that two would be replaced every four-year presidential term, bringing predictability to the appointment process. Rep. Ro Khanna, a California Democrat, in September proposed such a bill, though experts question whether it would require a constitutional amendment.
Congress could also curtail the court's jurisdiction through a rarely used constitutional power – effectively letting Congress declare certain laws unreviewable by the high court. But doing so would be certain to launch new legal battles.
And in a more sweeping reform, Professor Levitin has proposed expanding the court to 33 justices and randomly picking three-justice panels for each case. This plan, he says, offers a bipartisan path from the winner-take-all structure of today’s court and could help mollify the now-contentious nomination process.


csmonitor--2020-10-07--Trust your drill sergeant? Army takes new approach to basic training.

For Sgt .
1st Class Cynthia Velarde , picking up the new recruits on their first day of basic training was her favorite part of the job .
“ You ’ re the first NCO [ noncommissioned officer ] that those soldiers will see .
You have the potential to leave a lasting impression on them for the rest of their careers.
” To prepare soldiers for that , boot camp now focuses more on trust than intimidation .
Critics worry that the result will be a military gone soft .
But the Army says the result is stronger soldiers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s wars .
There ’ s “ a lot more reliance on the individual to act in a way that ’ s consistent with our values , ” says Richard Lacquement , research professor and former dean of the Strategic Studies Institute at the U.S. Army War College .
The days of Army drill sergeants surrounding a recruit and screaming threateningly in their face , “ Full Metal Jacket ” style , are officially over .
While the pandemic hastened this shift , it had been in the works for some time @ @ @ @ @ @ @ said .
James Dalman remembers his days at Army infantry boot camp nearly 25 years ago with impressive clarity .
There was the night privates in their bunks were doing impressions of their drill sergeant , and he overheard them .
He marched the new recruits outside and “ smoked us ” for 3 1/2 hours .
“ He was yelling something like , ‘ Humor leads to communism , communism leads to evil.
” We were like , ‘ What ’ s he talking about ?
’ Was he joking ?
I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was the time , too , the drill sergeant convinced recruits they were due an evening of relaxation , with a big spaghetti dinner and movies .
“ We ate and ate , then he took us outside and PT ’ d us ” – physical training in military parlance – “ until everyone threw up .
He got into a little trouble for that , ” Mr. Dalman recalls , reflecting , “ It was a little bit abusive.
” Mr. Dalman ’ s experience inspired him to post online tips for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fabled “ shark attack , ” in which “ sometimes half a dozen drill sergeants will gang up on you and be absolutely relentless .
Some people will cry.
” “ DO NOT make eye contact , ” he implores .
“ Get used to staring off a thousand miles into the distance .
This is your safe spot !
” Today , the shark attack is no more .
The Army ’ s storied Infantry School at Fort Benning , Georgia , announced in September that it was ending the attacks , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the works for some time – but was hastened along by the inadvisability of yelling in people ’ s faces during a pandemic .
This recognition is one of several shifts in strategic thinking about how to more effectively prepare soldiers for combat that the Army has put on display in recent months , including promoting “ naps to restore wakefulness , ” in a newly updated fitness training manual that also encourages journaling and reflecting on the “ interconnectedness of all things and people.
” Derided by some critics as evidence @ @ @ @ @ @ @ defense officials say these moves mark a recognition that wars have changed – and so have the troops fighting them .
The military ’ s new measures will actually build stronger soldiers , they add , and better prepare them for the intellectual and moral challenges they now face .
“ People with Smokey the Bear hats yelling at you – none of the things in the shark attack are setting an example of anything you ’ d ever want to instill in terms of leadership .
It ’ s the opposite of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , ” says retired Gen. David Barno , former commander of U.S. forces in Afghanistan and co-author with Nora Bensahel of “ Adaptation Under Fire : How Militaries Change in Wartime.
” In a video announcing the change , Command Sgt .
Maj. Robert Fortenberry explained , “ The cornerstones of the event were to establish dominance and authority using intimidation and fear .
Drill sergeants were charged with assessing the trainees ’ ability to handle stress , singling out perceived undesirables by enveloping them in a manner that emulated a shark attack @ @ @ @ @ @ @ activity , however , does not instill the spirit of the infantry .
It betrays the innate trust between teammates – and worse , betrays the crucial bond of trust with our leaders . ''
Historically , it was generally agreed that “ all a soldier had to do was march straight and shoot a rifle , ” says Richard Lacquement , research professor and former dean of the Strategic Studies Institute at the U.S. Army War College .
Today ’ s troops routinely use computers , radios , and drones at remote @ @ @ @ @ @ @ technologically adept and make quick decisions .
“ It ’ s an evolution of our expectation for enlisted personnel , how much we rely on them today to be intellectually capable and morally fit.
” The morally fit piece has come into sharp relief after nearly 20 years of fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan , where troops in combat have been more spread out , placing “ a lot more reliance on the individual to act in a way that ’ s consistent with our values , ” Mr. Lacquement says .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ them to do the right thing ?
And it ’ s harder to trust them if they don ’ t trust you.
” The new basic training model aims to build that confidence with training exercises that will emphasize “ belief in one ’ s self , belief in your teammates , and a belief in the leaders with whom they serve , ” Command Sgt .
Major Fortenberry said .
Instead of barking at new recruits scrambling off buses , for example , drill sergeants will formally introduce themselves and quiz soldiers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ memorize about the infantry .
It ’ s part of an effort , he explained , to help new soldiers “ realize this journey in the infantry is one that we ’ ll never take alone , and it is defined by leaders ’ willingness to share in the hardship.
” This has long been the approach to the education of officers , if not enlisted service members .
When he was a plebe at West Point in 1980 , Mr. Lacquement and his fellow students were expected to memorize word-for-word Maj. Gen. @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the military academy : “ The discipline which makes the soldiers of a free country reliable in battle is not to be gained by harsh or tyrannical treatment .
On the contrary , such treatment is far more likely to destroy than to make an army , ” he warned the Corps of Cadets .
“ It is possible to impart instruction and to give commands in such a manner and such a tone of voice to inspire in the soldier no feeling but an intense desire to obey.
” “ That made @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , ” Mr. Lacquement says .
“ They were tough on us , they critiqued us , but no one ever laid a hand on me .
The stress came from trying to perform up to their expectation.
” It is perhaps past time that the officer model of training is carried over into the enlisted ranks as well , he adds .
The new basic training model builds on a belief that has become increasingly pronounced in the post-Vietnam era , when the thinking was that while draftees had to be coerced @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The stereotypical “ Full Metal Jacket ” drill sergeants were working with conscripts who were unwilling to be in the military from the beginning , notes General Barno .
In the modern Army , “ Recruits have gone through a lot of wickets just to show up on the first day of basic training , ” he says .
“ The Army has worked hard to get these folks in there .
You want them to succeed.
” For Sgt .
1st Class Cynthia Velarde , picking up the new recruits on their @ @ @ @ @ @ @ favorite part of the job .
“ You ’ re the first NCO [ noncommissioned officer ] that those soldiers will see .
You have the potential to leave a lasting impression on them for the rest of their careers , ” she says .
“ By the last day , maybe the kid who could barely pick up a bag or barely do a pushup or never fired a weapon is confident to do that , or the ones who wanted to come in the Army and be pushed , physically pushed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ miles.
” She recalls eating in the mess hall when one former trainee approached her just to say that she had been his senior drill sergeant years earlier .
“ He was standing at parade rest .
You run into these kids and they give you the customs and courtesies that we teach them over and over for weeks .
The way you carry yourself – they don ’ t forget it.
” That said , the new changes don ’ t preclude the occasional lambasting , particularly when lives are on the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have to yell at people ?
No , ” Sergeant Velarde says , pausing .
“ I mean , sometimes you do have to yell at them .
You do .
I don ’ t think it ’ s demeaning if you yell at an individual when you ’ ve told them five times that maybe you need to point your muzzle in a safe direction .
There ’ s going to be yelling after that .
”

For Sgt. 1st Class Cynthia Velarde, picking up the new recruits on their first day of basic training was her favorite part of the job. “You’re the first NCO [noncommissioned officer] that those soldiers will see. You have the potential to leave a lasting impression on them for the rest of their careers.”
To prepare soldiers for that, boot camp now focuses more on trust than intimidation. Critics worry that the result will be a military gone soft. But the Army says the result is stronger soldiers who are better prepared to fight today’s wars.
A change in thinking among the military is shifting behavior in profound ways. Training that once emphasized intimidation now focuses on cultivating trust – not only among soldiers but between soldiers and their leaders.
There’s “a lot more reliance on the individual to act in a way that’s consistent with our values,” says Richard Lacquement, research professor and former dean of the Strategic Studies Institute at the U.S. Army War College.
The days of Army drill sergeants surrounding a recruit and screaming threateningly in their face, “Full Metal Jacket” style, are officially over. While the pandemic hastened this shift, it had been in the works for some time, the Army’s Infantry School said.
James Dalman remembers his days at Army infantry boot camp nearly 25 years ago with impressive clarity.
There was the night privates in their bunks were doing impressions of their drill sergeant, and he overheard them.
He marched the new recruits outside and “smoked us” for 3 1/2 hours. “He was yelling something like, ‘Humor leads to communism, communism leads to evil.” We were like, ‘What’s he talking about?’ Was he joking? I still don’t know.”
Why We Wrote This A change in thinking among the military is shifting behavior in profound ways. Training that once emphasized intimidation now focuses on cultivating trust – not only among soldiers but between soldiers and their leaders.
There was the time, too, the drill sergeant convinced recruits they were due an evening of relaxation, with a big spaghetti dinner and movies. “We ate and ate, then he took us outside and PT’d us” – physical training in military parlance – “until everyone threw up. He got into a little trouble for that,” Mr. Dalman recalls, reflecting, “It was a little bit abusive.”
Mr. Dalman’s experience inspired him to post online tips for new recruits, alerting them to the fabled “shark attack,” in which “sometimes half a dozen drill sergeants will gang up on you and be absolutely relentless. Some people will cry.”
“DO NOT make eye contact,” he implores. “Get used to staring off a thousand miles into the distance. This is your safe spot!”
Today, the shark attack is no more. The Army’s storied Infantry School at Fort Benning, Georgia, announced in September that it was ending the attacks, a move military officials say had been in the works for some time – but was hastened along by the inadvisability of yelling in people’s faces during a pandemic.
This recognition is one of several shifts in strategic thinking about how to more effectively prepare soldiers for combat that the Army has put on display in recent months, including promoting “naps to restore wakefulness,” in a newly updated fitness training manual that also encourages journaling and reflecting on the “interconnectedness of all things and people.”
Derided by some critics as evidence that the military has gone soft, defense officials say these moves mark a recognition that wars have changed – and so have the troops fighting them. The military’s new measures will actually build stronger soldiers, they add, and better prepare them for the intellectual and moral challenges they now face.
“People with Smokey the Bear hats yelling at you – none of the things in the shark attack are setting an example of anything you’d ever want to instill in terms of leadership. It’s the opposite of what you’re trying to instill,” says retired Gen. David Barno, former commander of U.S. forces in Afghanistan and co-author with Nora Bensahel of “Adaptation Under Fire: How Militaries Change in Wartime.”
In a video announcing the change, Command Sgt. Maj. Robert Fortenberry explained, “The cornerstones of the event were to establish dominance and authority using intimidation and fear. Drill sergeants were charged with assessing the trainees’ ability to handle stress, singling out perceived undesirables by enveloping them in a manner that emulated a shark attack,” he said. “This activity, however, does not instill the spirit of the infantry. It betrays the innate trust between teammates – and worse, betrays the crucial bond of trust with our leaders."
Training for today’s wars
Historically, it was generally agreed that “all a soldier had to do was march straight and shoot a rifle,” says Richard Lacquement, research professor and former dean of the Strategic Studies Institute at the U.S. Army War College. Today’s troops routinely use computers, radios, and drones at remote outposts that require them to be more technologically adept and make quick decisions. “It’s an evolution of our expectation for enlisted personnel, how much we rely on them today to be intellectually capable and morally fit.”
The morally fit piece has come into sharp relief after nearly 20 years of fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan, where troops in combat have been more spread out, placing “a lot more reliance on the individual to act in a way that’s consistent with our values,” Mr. Lacquement says. The question becomes, “Can I trust them to do the right thing? And it’s harder to trust them if they don’t trust you.”
The new basic training model aims to build that confidence with training exercises that will emphasize “belief in one’s self, belief in your teammates, and a belief in the leaders with whom they serve,” Command Sgt. Major Fortenberry said.
Instead of barking at new recruits scrambling off buses, for example, drill sergeants will formally introduce themselves and quiz soldiers on facts they’re expected to memorize about the infantry. It’s part of an effort, he explained, to help new soldiers “realize this journey in the infantry is one that we’ll never take alone, and it is defined by leaders’ willingness to share in the hardship.”
This has long been the approach to the education of officers, if not enlisted service members. When he was a plebe at West Point in 1980, Mr. Lacquement and his fellow students were expected to memorize word-for-word Maj. Gen. John Schofield’s 1879 address to the military academy: “The discipline which makes the soldiers of a free country reliable in battle is not to be gained by harsh or tyrannical treatment. On the contrary, such treatment is far more likely to destroy than to make an army,” he warned the Corps of Cadets. “It is possible to impart instruction and to give commands in such a manner and such a tone of voice to inspire in the soldier no feeling but an intense desire to obey.”
“That made perfect sense to me as a cadet,” Mr. Lacquement says. “They were tough on us, they critiqued us, but no one ever laid a hand on me. The stress came from trying to perform up to their expectation.” It is perhaps past time that the officer model of training is carried over into the enlisted ranks as well, he adds.
A new kind of drill sergeant
The new basic training model builds on a belief that has become increasingly pronounced in the post-Vietnam era, when the thinking was that while draftees had to be coerced, volunteers needed to be persuaded. The stereotypical “Full Metal Jacket” drill sergeants were working with conscripts who were unwilling to be in the military from the beginning, notes General Barno. In the modern Army, “Recruits have gone through a lot of wickets just to show up on the first day of basic training,” he says. “The Army has worked hard to get these folks in there. You want them to succeed.”
For Sgt. 1st Class Cynthia Velarde, picking up the new recruits on their first day of basic training was her favorite part of the job. “You’re the first NCO [noncommissioned officer] that those soldiers will see. You have the potential to leave a lasting impression on them for the rest of their careers,” she says. “By the last day, maybe the kid who could barely pick up a bag or barely do a pushup or never fired a weapon is confident to do that, or the ones who wanted to come in the Army and be pushed, physically pushed, are out there rucking for 10 miles.”
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She recalls eating in the mess hall when one former trainee approached her just to say that she had been his senior drill sergeant years earlier. “He was standing at parade rest. You run into these kids and they give you the customs and courtesies that we teach them over and over for weeks. The way you carry yourself – they don’t forget it.”
That said, the new changes don’t preclude the occasional lambasting, particularly when lives are on the line. “Does leadership mean we have to yell at people? No,” Sergeant Velarde says, pausing. “I mean, sometimes you do have to yell at them. You do. I don’t think it’s demeaning if you yell at an individual when you’ve told them five times that maybe you need to point your muzzle in a safe direction. There’s going to be yelling after that.”


csmonitor--2020-10-07--Refugees find welcome, warmth at German hearth

Khalil Sharaf , a Syrian lawyer who was jailed in his own country , says he has noticed German society growing more open since he arrived in Berlin in 2015 .
“ I miss a lot in Syria , ” he says .
“ But I feel 50 % at home in Germany.
” Five years on , about half the new arrivals have found work – though not always long-term jobs – and the government ensures that most of those who are granted asylum also get extensive German language classes .
They have kept it going .
Though an @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fortunes rise , many thousands of Germans have stepped up to help the newcomers .
“ We ’ ve seen an unprecedented rise in volunteerism , ” says one sociologist .
When refugees began flooding into Europe five years ago , Germany ’ s response stood out .
Angela Merkel waived the rules to allow more than a million people to settle in her country , and ordinary Germans were proud to boast of their Wilkommenskultur – a welcoming culture .
From his new home in Berlin , Khalil Sharaf recalls the war-torn @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fled in 2015 : the crash of bombs , regular street battles , the seemingly random arrests of neighbors .
One day the police came for him – he was an outspoken lawyer – and threw him in jail .
He spent a traumatic month in a jam-packed basement cell watching people around him suffocate to death every day from overcrowding .
“ Every human has 2 feet and there wasn ’ t even enough space for that , ” says Mr. Sharaf .
“ We carried kids on our shoulders so they @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the fortunate ones .
Eventually , he made it to Germany , and today , five years after Chancellor Angela Merkel opened her country ’ s doors to a flood of refugees like him , Mr. Sharaf has put down roots .
He has been granted political asylum , learned to speak German , found a job helping other refugees integrate , and been reunited with his wife and children .
Though he has experienced hardships peppered with false starts , his story , and countless others like it , illuminate a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a million refugees into Germany ’ s everyday economic and social life .
“ My kids are in school now .
They speak German .
They have so many friends , ” Mr. Sharaf says .
“ I have German friends .
Me and my work colleagues , we are like family.
” To be sure , a far-right political party won seats in parliament in part by riding a backlash against the largest flow of refugees Germany had seen since World War II .
And the coronavirus pandemic has challenged refugees just @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Yet , five years on , roughly half the new arrivals have quietly found work as armies of German volunteers assist the rest with everything from language classes to finding jobs and housing .
“ Compared with Germany ’ s 1990s intake of migrants from the Balkans , this integration is more successful , longer term , and more sustainable , ” says Ulf Rinne , an economist with the IZA Institute of Labor Economics , a private research group in Bonn .
“ We have a split society , but the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ majority , ” adds Dieter Filsinger , a sociologist at Saarland University of Applied Sciences .
“ We ’ ve seen an unprecedented rise in volunteerism , and so much engagement from communities and from individual Germans , ” Dr. Filsinger says , referring to the Willkommenskultur ( welcoming culture ) that has become part of Germany ’ s lexicon .
Ursula Breidbach began teaching German classes for new arrivals back in 2015 .
The Berliner also collected and distributed food and clothing to refugees from her comfortable home in a quiet , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of “ the people who were always two steps ahead of the politicians , ” says Günther Schulze , whose neighborhood “ refugee welcome alliance ” enticed Ms. Breidbach to join their ranks .
“ The ones who are against refugees are loud and are heard .
The quiet people doing the work are the really important ones for our society.
” Every week , Ms. Breidbach taps a wide network of acquaintances to “ find the right people with the right answers , ” she says .
This network helps with everything @ @ @ @ @ @ @ finding housing .
Sometimes , a new arrival simply needs a friend .
“ They ’ ll say , ‘ I ’ d like to find new friends to practice my German , ’ ” says Ms. Breidbach .
“ So I send out an email , such as ‘ Here ’ s Ayisha and she ’ s 21 , from Afghanistan , and she likes swimming.
’ Someone raises a hand and says , ‘ I like swimming too , I ’ d like to meet her.
’ ” “ In the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Thousands of such volunteers have emerged across Germany , adapting their services to meet the changing needs of the new arrivals .
Refugees who arrived in 2015 who have managed to secure permanent status in Germany are no longer living in gyms and struggling to find their bearings ; they are confronting next-level needs and wants .
The volunteer army has itself morphed , too , from “ a lot of fantastic elderly ladies in the beginning distributing clothes and so on , ” says Mr. Schulze , “ to a lot of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ideas .
They ’ re also more political.
” The German government also learned from the Balkans experience that institutional language-learning support is critical ; asylum programs now pay for or subsidize 600 hours of German classes and a 60-hour course teaching German law , society , and culture .
Ammar El Halabi , who was imprisoned twice for demonstrating and speaking out against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad , was one of the beneficiaries of such a program after arriving in Germany in 2012 .
A former soldier who also trained as a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a few years while he got the hang of the language .
“ It was like being a child and learning to walk when I got here , ” he remembers .
After a few failed attempts to get on his feet , he is now fluent in German and has opened a bakery in Neukölln , a district of Berlin known for its international feel .
He sells Syrian-style baklava and other sweets , which he proudly says “ contain less sugar than the Turkish version.
” When asked , eight years @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s settling into his new life , Mr. Halabi doesn ’ t sugarcoat his words .
There have been challenges .
But look at the plight of Syrian friends who emigrated to the United States , he points out .
“ They aren ’ t doing well , ” he says .
“ They always have to work under the table and do terrible jobs .
They don ’ t really get much support.
” Even in Germany , with its warm volunteer embrace and government aid , a lot of refugees are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Many are working in unskilled jobs or professions other than the ones they were trained for .
They can also come up against racism and discrimination , says Dr. Filsinger of Saarland University .
“ Migrants who have the exact same grades and experience as Germans have a much harder time getting employment than Germans , ” he says .
Mr. Sharaf remembers his battle to find his feet those first years in Berlin .
“ I didn ’ t speak anything , ” he says .
“ So I started practicing [ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on the street.
” Hard-pressed to find work , the trial lawyer turned to building playgrounds as a volunteer .
“ This was super strange because I ’ m not a construction worker , ” he laughs .
“ But I get it .
I can ’ t just jump back into being a lawyer again .
So , I said , ‘ who cares !
’ And I built this playground.
” Now he has a paying job , helping refugees like himself make their new lives in Germany .
His wife @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to overcome a habit of hiding under beds from the trauma of hearing bombs – have joined him in Berlin .
An English teacher back in Syria , his wife is working to become an educator in Germany .
Volunteers helped them find an apartment , and the couple has had another child .
German society has become noticeably more open since he arrived in Berlin , remarks Mr. Sharaf .
“ In the beginning , they thought we are coming just to sit and sleep and take money , ” he says @ @ @ @ @ @ @ engineers , lawyers , doctors just like them .
We want to work .
I miss a lot in Syria , but I feel 50 % at home in Germany .
”

Khalil Sharaf, a Syrian lawyer who was jailed in his own country, says he has noticed German society growing more open since he arrived in Berlin in 2015. “I miss a lot in Syria,” he says. “But I feel 50% at home in Germany.”
Five years on, about half the new arrivals have found work – though not always long-term jobs – and the government ensures that most of those who are granted asylum also get extensive German language classes.
Neighboring countries scoffed at Chancellor Angela Merkel five years ago for allowing more than a million refugees to seek asylum in Germany. But citizens stepped up to welcome them, and the results are seen and felt today.
They have kept it going. Though an extreme right anti-immigrant political party saw its fortunes rise, many thousands of Germans have stepped up to help the newcomers. “We’ve seen an unprecedented rise in volunteerism,” says one sociologist.
When refugees began flooding into Europe five years ago, Germany’s response stood out. Angela Merkel waived the rules to allow more than a million people to settle in her country, and ordinary Germans were proud to boast of their Wilkommenskultur – a welcoming culture.
From his new home in Berlin, Khalil Sharaf recalls the war-torn town of Daraa in Syria that he fled in 2015: the crash of bombs, regular street battles, the seemingly random arrests of neighbors.
One day the police came for him – he was an outspoken lawyer – and threw him in jail. He spent a traumatic month in a jam-packed basement cell watching people around him suffocate to death every day from overcrowding.
“Every human has 2 feet and there wasn’t even enough space for that,” says Mr. Sharaf. “We carried kids on our shoulders so they could breathe.”
Why We Wrote This Neighboring countries scoffed at Chancellor Angela Merkel five years ago for allowing more than a million refugees to seek asylum in Germany. But citizens stepped up to welcome them, and the results are seen and felt today.
But he was one of the fortunate ones. Eventually, he made it to Germany, and today, five years after Chancellor Angela Merkel opened her country’s doors to a flood of refugees like him, Mr. Sharaf has put down roots. He has been granted political asylum, learned to speak German, found a job helping other refugees integrate, and been reunited with his wife and children.
Though he has experienced hardships peppered with false starts, his story, and countless others like it, illuminate a pattern of success in fitting more than a million refugees into Germany’s everyday economic and social life.
“My kids are in school now. They speak German. They have so many friends,” Mr. Sharaf says. “I have German friends. Me and my work colleagues, we are like family.”
A “welcoming culture”
To be sure, a far-right political party won seats in parliament in part by riding a backlash against the largest flow of refugees Germany had seen since World War II. And the coronavirus pandemic has challenged refugees just as they were getting on their feet.
Yet, five years on, roughly half the new arrivals have quietly found work as armies of German volunteers assist the rest with everything from language classes to finding jobs and housing.
“Compared with Germany’s 1990s intake of migrants from the Balkans, this integration is more successful, longer term, and more sustainable,” says Ulf Rinne, an economist with the IZA Institute of Labor Economics, a private research group in Bonn.
“We have a split society, but the group that welcomes refugees is in the majority,” adds Dieter Filsinger, a sociologist at Saarland University of Applied Sciences. “We’ve seen an unprecedented rise in volunteerism, and so much engagement from communities and from individual Germans,” Dr. Filsinger says, referring to the Willkommenskultur (welcoming culture) that has become part of Germany’s lexicon.
Ursula Breidbach began teaching German classes for new arrivals back in 2015. The Berliner also collected and distributed food and clothing to refugees from her comfortable home in a quiet, upper-middle-class suburb.
Ms. Breidbach is typical of “the people who were always two steps ahead of the politicians,” says Günther Schulze, whose neighborhood “refugee welcome alliance” enticed Ms. Breidbach to join their ranks. “The ones who are against refugees are loud and are heard. The quiet people doing the work are the really important ones for our society.”
Every week, Ms. Breidbach taps a wide network of acquaintances to “find the right people with the right answers,” she says. This network helps with everything from visa and legal advice to assistance finding housing. Sometimes, a new arrival simply needs a friend.
Klaus Peters/picture-alliance/dpa/AP/File View caption Hide caption German language teacher Piotr Olejniczak reads from his old school book, which helped him to learn German 30 years ago, to his students. Mr. Olejniczak is teaching German language classes to refugee children from Syria, Afghanistan and Russia.
“They’ll say, ‘I’d like to find new friends to practice my German,’” says Ms. Breidbach. “So I send out an email, such as ‘Here’s Ayisha and she’s 21, from Afghanistan, and she likes swimming.’ Someone raises a hand and says, ‘I like swimming too, I’d like to meet her.’”
“In the best case, they become friends.”
Learning from the past
Thousands of such volunteers have emerged across Germany, adapting their services to meet the changing needs of the new arrivals. Refugees who arrived in 2015 who have managed to secure permanent status in Germany are no longer living in gyms and struggling to find their bearings; they are confronting next-level needs and wants.
The volunteer army has itself morphed, too, from “a lot of fantastic elderly ladies in the beginning distributing clothes and so on,” says Mr. Schulze, “to a lot of younger people now who have their own ideas. They’re also more political.”
The German government also learned from the Balkans experience that institutional language-learning support is critical; asylum programs now pay for or subsidize 600 hours of German classes and a 60-hour course teaching German law, society, and culture.
Ammar El Halabi, who was imprisoned twice for demonstrating and speaking out against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, was one of the beneficiaries of such a program after arriving in Germany in 2012.
A former soldier who also trained as a baker, he worked odd jobs for a few years while he got the hang of the language. “It was like being a child and learning to walk when I got here,” he remembers.
After a few failed attempts to get on his feet, he is now fluent in German and has opened a bakery in Neukölln, a district of Berlin known for its international feel. He sells Syrian-style baklava and other sweets, which he proudly says “contain less sugar than the Turkish version.”
When asked, eight years after his arrival, how he’s settling into his new life, Mr. Halabi doesn’t sugarcoat his words. There have been challenges. But look at the plight of Syrian friends who emigrated to the United States, he points out.
“They aren’t doing well,” he says. “They always have to work under the table and do terrible jobs. They don’t really get much support.”
A 50% solution
Even in Germany, with its warm volunteer embrace and government aid, a lot of refugees are still struggling to make their way. Many are working in unskilled jobs or professions other than the ones they were trained for. They can also come up against racism and discrimination, says Dr. Filsinger of Saarland University.
“Migrants who have the exact same grades and experience as Germans have a much harder time getting employment than Germans,” he says.
Mr. Sharaf remembers his battle to find his feet those first years in Berlin. “I didn’t speak anything,” he says. “So I started practicing [German] with YouTube and with people on the street.”
Hard-pressed to find work, the trial lawyer turned to building playgrounds as a volunteer. “This was super strange because I’m not a construction worker,” he laughs. “But I get it. I can’t just jump back into being a lawyer again. So, I said, ‘who cares!’ And I built this playground.”
Now he has a paying job, helping refugees like himself make their new lives in Germany. His wife and young son – who required therapy to overcome a habit of hiding under beds from the trauma of hearing bombs – have joined him in Berlin. An English teacher back in Syria, his wife is working to become an educator in Germany. Volunteers helped them find an apartment, and the couple has had another child.
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empower and uplift daily. By signing up, you agree to our Privacy Policy Already a subscriber? Log in to hide ads.
German society has become noticeably more open since he arrived in Berlin, remarks Mr. Sharaf.
“In the beginning, they thought we are coming just to sit and sleep and take money,” he says. “Then they see we are engineers, lawyers, doctors just like them. We want to work. I miss a lot in Syria, but I feel 50% at home in Germany.”


csmonitor--2020-10-07--Make an October date with Eleanor Roosevelt, Cary Grant, Sylvia Plath

While October novels brim with exciting plots and winsome characters , this month 's nonfiction titles are dominated by biographies of a popular first lady , a beloved actor , a troubled poet , and a noted gastronome .
Their lives open a window onto the times they inhabited .
Jess Walter , of “ Beautiful Ruins , ” returns with a tale of the wild Northwest .
Labor unrest in 1909 Spokane , Washington , provides the backdrop to this spectacular adventure .
Walter stocks the novel with drifters , cops , activists , millionaires , and more , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ aspects .
An ambitious dream of living on Mars could actually come true for Solvig , a deep sea welder who ’ s caught between her longing to have a child with her partner James , or possibly leave Earth and never return .
Anneliese Mackintosh ’ s imaginative and sensitive story tells of a woman ’ s odyssey to reconcile competing desires for independence and fulfillment and family .
What is it that confers identity ?
Is it nationality ?
Language ?
Where we call home ?
In this beautifully written novel @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of conversations between a graduate student from southern China and a landscape architect raised in Australia whose parents were British and German .
When their paths cross in London , a romance blossoms as each wrestles with what it means to belong .
4 .
The Prince of Mournful Thoughts by Caroline Kim Caroline Kim ’ s absorbing debut is a rarity among first collections : Throughout her dozen stories , she maintains enviously superb writing as her characters navigate generations , geographies , and cultures in search of acknowledgment and connection .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ a discovery : an ancient papyrus fragment that suggested that Jesus Christ and Mary Magdalene may have been married .
Expanding on his 2016 article for The Atlantic , Ariel Sabar digs into the story of the papyrus and the couple who tried to pass it off as real .
In a rapidly changing Arctic , a polar bear named Nanu follows nature and instinct as she takes her yearly life-or-death migration across ice , snow , and sea .
Author and explorer James Raffan offers a bear ’ s-eye view of humankind @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
7 .
The Man Who Ate Too Much by John Birdsall John Birdsall ’ s juicy biography of James Beard serves up a multilayered portrait of the man who ’ s been called America ’ s first foodie .
Birdsall chronicles how the great gastronome channeled his robust appetite and encyclopedic knowledge of food into a celebrated , influential career , but also highlights how , in an era of rampant homophobia , Beard had to hide a part of himself .
Biographer Scott Eyman exhaustively and entertainingly chronicles the unlikely transformation @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , into legendary Hollywood leading man Cary Grant .
The actor was celebrated for the style and ease he brought to his roles in screwball comedies and Hitchcock thrillers , but Eyman asserts that he never got over the loneliness and deprivation of his childhood .
This riveting , cinematic biography of America ’ s longest-serving first lady spans Eleanor Roosevelt ’ s lonely childhood , her frosty marriage to FDR , their eventful White House years , her intimate relationships outside their marriage , and her widowhood , during which she became @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The full , complex scope of poet Sylvia Plath ’ s life and writing is given a bracingly thought-provoking reexamination in this massive – and massively absorbing – biography .

While October novels brim with exciting plots and winsome characters, this month's nonfiction titles are dominated by biographies of a popular first lady, a beloved actor, a troubled poet, and a noted gastronome. Their lives open a window onto the times they inhabited.
1. The Cold Millions by Jess Walter
Jess Walter, of “Beautiful Ruins,” returns with a tale of the wild Northwest. Labor unrest in 1909 Spokane, Washington, provides the backdrop to this spectacular adventure. Walter stocks the novel with drifters, cops, activists, millionaires, and more, and his humor balances out the noir aspects.
Why We Wrote This Dipping into stories about other lives broadens and enriches our own. Especially now, when the pandemic can sometimes turn the focus inward. These books open vistas in the mind's eye and take us places we may not expect.
2. Bright and Dangerous Objects by Anneliese Macintosh
An ambitious dream of living on Mars could actually come true for Solvig, a deep sea welder who’s caught between her longing to have a child with her partner James, or possibly leave Earth and never return. Anneliese Mackintosh’s imaginative and sensitive story tells of a woman’s odyssey to reconcile competing desires for independence and fulfillment and family.
3. A Lover’s Discourse by Xiaolu Guo
Grove Atlantic View caption Hide caption “A Lover’s Discourse” by Xiaolu Guo, Grove Press, 288 pp.
What is it that confers identity? Is it nationality? Language? Where we call home? In this beautifully written novel, Xiaolu Guo explores identity through fragments of conversations between a graduate student from southern China and a landscape architect raised in Australia whose parents were British and German. When their paths cross in London, a romance blossoms as each wrestles with what it means to belong.
4. The Prince of Mournful Thoughts by Caroline Kim
Caroline Kim’s absorbing debut is a rarity among first collections: Throughout her dozen stories, she maintains enviously superb writing as her characters navigate generations, geographies, and cultures in search of acknowledgment and connection.
5. Veritas by Ariel Sabar
In 2012, a religion scholar announced a discovery: an ancient papyrus fragment that suggested that Jesus Christ and Mary Magdalene may have been married. Expanding on his 2016 article for The Atlantic, Ariel Sabar digs into the story of the papyrus and the couple who tried to pass it off as real. Read our review here.
6. Ice Walker by James Raffan
In a rapidly changing Arctic, a polar bear named Nanu follows nature and instinct as she takes her yearly life-or-death migration across ice, snow, and sea. Author and explorer James Raffan offers a bear’s-eye view of humankind’s impact on the natural world.
7. The Man Who Ate Too Much by John Birdsall
John Birdsall’s juicy biography of James Beard serves up a multilayered portrait of the man who’s been called America’s first foodie. Birdsall chronicles how the great gastronome channeled his robust appetite and encyclopedic knowledge of food into a celebrated, influential career, but also highlights how, in an era of rampant homophobia, Beard had to hide a part of himself.
8. Cary Grant by Scott Eyman
Simon & Schuster View caption Hide caption “Cary Grant: A Brilliant Disguise” by Scott Eyman, Simon & Schuster, 576 pp.
Biographer Scott Eyman exhaustively and entertainingly chronicles the unlikely transformation of Archie Leach of Bristol, England, into legendary Hollywood leading man Cary Grant. The actor was celebrated for the style and ease he brought to his roles in screwball comedies and Hitchcock thrillers, but Eyman asserts that he never got over the loneliness and deprivation of his childhood.
9. Eleanor by David Michaelis
This riveting, cinematic biography of America’s longest-serving first lady spans Eleanor Roosevelt’s lonely childhood, her frosty marriage to FDR, their eventful White House years, her intimate relationships outside their marriage, and her widowhood, during which she became a forceful advocate for human rights. Read a Q&A with the author here.
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10. Red Comet by Heather Clark
The full, complex scope of poet Sylvia Plath’s life and writing is given a bracingly thought-provoking reexamination in this massive – and massively absorbing – biography.


csmonitor--2020-10-07--The four-year shadow of Nov. 3, 2016

The four-year shadow of Nov. 3, 2016

There ’ s a shadow hanging over Washington .
It ’ s the shadow of 2016 .
Elected officials , aides , consultants , journalists – four years ago , so many political people thought Hillary Clinton was going to win .
Donald Trump ?
President ?
Some election forecast models virtually wrote him off .
Very few people noticed , or really believed , that underlying key polls were bouncing around and tightening as Election Day approached .
The memory of those misperceptions is one of the main reasons you don ’ t hear more whispers about what Politico @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s worst kept secret : ” the widespread belief that President Trump is now headed for defeat .
After all , the numbers facing the president are brutal .
He ’ s losing in key polls by large margins .
And those numbers are more stable than they were four years ago – or getting worse .
The topline is that President Trump is now 9 points behind in the FiveThirtyEight average of major national polls .
In a just-released CNN survey Mr. Trump is 16 points behind Joe Biden .
That @ @ @ @ @ @ @ any presidential survey in the 21st century .
Yes , we ’ re cherry-picking one poll there .
But the underlying demographics are terrible for the Trump campaign .
Four years ago , Mr. Trump won seniors by nine points over Hillary Clinton .
The latest polls show him losing this group to Joe Biden by twenty points or more .
Men , overall , prefer President Trump .
But women are deserting him in such numbers that barring a big change the 2020 election will feature the largest gender gap since women @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 19th Amendment .
All this means the path for a Joe Biden victory is becoming clearer .
He now leads in Pennsylvania by an average of 8 points in major polls , according to the New York Times Upshot calculations .
He leads in Wisconsin by 8 , Minnesota by 11 , and Michigan by 8 .
If he wins those states , as well as all the others won by Mrs. Clinton in 2016 , it ’ s game over .
And yet , and yet .
.
.
2016 !
Mr. @ @ @ @ @ @ @ him a more sympathetic figure .
Mr. Biden might stumble in a debate .
The polls might be flat wrong .
This uncertainty is why the FiveThirtyEight election forecast still gives Mr. Trump a 17 % chance of winning , according to founding editor Nate Silver .
That “ isn ’ t bad , ” he tweeted on Wednesday .
But the polls per se ?
They point to “ the biggest landslide since 1984 , ” according to Mr. Silver .
Let us know what you ’ re thinking at csmpolitics @ @ @

Dear readers:
There’s a shadow hanging over Washington. It’s the shadow of 2016.
Elected officials, aides, consultants, journalists – four years ago, so many political people thought Hillary Clinton was going to win. Donald Trump? President? Some election forecast models virtually wrote him off. Very few people noticed, or really believed, that underlying key polls were bouncing around and tightening as Election Day approached.
The memory of those misperceptions is one of the main reasons you don’t hear more whispers about what Politico’s Ryan Lizza calls “Washington’s worst kept secret:” the widespread belief that President Trump is now headed for defeat.
After all, the numbers facing the president are brutal. He’s losing in key polls by large margins. And those numbers are more stable than they were four years ago – or getting worse.
The topline is that President Trump is now 9 points behind in the FiveThirtyEight average of major national polls. In a just-released CNN survey Mr. Trump is 16 points behind Joe Biden. That’s the largest October deficit in any presidential survey in the 21st century.
Yes, we’re cherry-picking one poll there. But the underlying demographics are terrible for the Trump campaign. Four years ago, Mr. Trump won seniors by nine points over Hillary Clinton. The latest polls show him losing this group to Joe Biden by twenty points or more.
Men, overall, prefer President Trump. But women are deserting him in such numbers that barring a big change the 2020 election will feature the largest gender gap since women won the right to vote with the 19th Amendment.
All this means the path for a Joe Biden victory is becoming clearer. He now leads in Pennsylvania by an average of 8 points in major polls, according to the New York Times Upshot calculations. He leads in Wisconsin by 8, Minnesota by 11, and Michigan by 8. If he wins those states, as well as all the others won by Mrs. Clinton in 2016, it’s game over.
And yet, and yet . . . 2016! Mr. Trump’s coronavirus diagnosis might make him a more sympathetic figure. Mr. Biden might stumble in a debate. The polls might be flat wrong.
This uncertainty is why the FiveThirtyEight election forecast still gives Mr. Trump a 17% chance of winning, according to founding editor Nate Silver. That “isn’t bad,” he tweeted on Wednesday.
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empower and uplift daily. By signing up, you agree to our Privacy Policy Already a subscriber? Log in to hide ads.
But the polls per se? They point to “the biggest landslide since 1984,” according to Mr. Silver.
Let us know what you’re thinking at csmpolitics@csmonitor.com.


csmonitor--2020-10-07--Concern for the election, diligence from voters

For most Americans , worrying about voter intimidation or electoral fraud is what other countries face .
Not so this year .
A sharp rise in both early voting and the expected number of partisan poll watchers , as well as concerns about postelection legal challenges , has raised anxiety about the integrity of the results .
Yet in spite of these concerns , or perhaps because of them , Americans appear more determined than usual to keep their democracy intact .
This week , as early voting started in earnest across most of the United States , there were @ @ @ @ @ @ @ circumstances of casting ballots during a pandemic and heightened unrest .
Florida , for example , extended the deadline for voter registration to accommodate a surge in applications .
The state ’ s online system crashed repeatedly under the strain of some 1 million registration attempts per hour .
In Indiana , voters waited peacefully for more than two hours to cast ballots Oct. 6 when polling stations opened .
The United States Elections Project , a voting-trends tracking site maintained at the University of Florida , estimates that more than 5 million @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 35 states reporting early voting statistics .
At the same point four years ago , the site counted fewer than 75,000 ballots cast .
These numbers suggest two things .
First , voters are heeding calls to give states more time to process an expected increase in mail-in balloting due to the pandemic .
And second , that overall turnout this year may reach historic highs .
Professor Michael McDonald , who manages the site , estimates 150 million Americans will cast ballots , or what would be a record raw number and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ This means civic-mindedness may also be at a high point .
Experiences in other countries show that electoral divisions can be overcome , especially with more inclusiveness , greater voter participation , or outside pressure .
In South Africa , an 11th-hour decision by a key faction to end its boycott of the country ’ s first-ever democratic election in 1994 was key to breaking four years of grisly preelection violence .
Turnout at the polls was nearly 90 % , giving the new government a more durable mandate .
In Kosovo , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2008 , officials wisely held local elections to boost minority participation and build credibility for a future national government .
In societies without deep democratic traditions , election monitoring has become a mainstay of international diplomacy .
During a tense audit of elections results in Afghanistan in 2014 , the two rival candidates agreed to a U.S.-brokered deal to form a unity government .
They recognized that a dispute over electoral fraud was undermining the country ’ s already fragile stability .
The pact had its faults , but it eased immediate threats @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in a civil war but it is well to recall President Abraham Lincoln ’ s 1863 visit to Gettysburg where he defended the nation ’ s founding ideals and the sacrifices made in defense of them .
In divided times , politicians have often used the Pennsylvania site for similar purposes .
In 1963 , then-Vice President Lyndon Johnson journeyed there during the civil rights era to proclaim a vigil of racial justice .
On Tuesday , Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden spoke at the Civil War battlefield about the ability of fair @ @ @ @ @ @ @ power to vote , ” he said , “ is the noblest instrument ever devised to register our will in a peaceable and productive fashion.
” Just by itself , the shared experience of voting is a strong signal that Americans want to join together in improving the country as a whole .
“ Love is the only force powerful enough to overcome those incredibly powerful forces that are pulling us apart .
You can ’ t love the country without caring about all of our fellow Americans , ” said Bob Boisture @ @ @ @ @ @ @ told The Chronicle of Philanthropy .
Concerns for the 2020 election process are already being lessened as more voters and more state officials step up like never before .
Americans can wear two hats at once – partisan voter and democracy protector .
At this point , the latter hat appears bigger .

For most Americans, worrying about voter intimidation or electoral fraud is what other countries face. Not so this year. A sharp rise in both early voting and the expected number of partisan poll watchers, as well as concerns about postelection legal challenges, has raised anxiety about the integrity of the results.
Yet in spite of these concerns, or perhaps because of them, Americans appear more determined than usual to keep their democracy intact.
This week, as early voting started in earnest across most of the United States, there were signs voters are responding to the unique circumstances of casting ballots during a pandemic and heightened unrest. Florida, for example, extended the deadline for voter registration to accommodate a surge in applications. The state’s online system crashed repeatedly under the strain of some 1 million registration attempts per hour. In Indiana, voters waited peacefully for more than two hours to cast ballots Oct. 6 when polling stations opened.
The United States Elections Project, a voting-trends tracking site maintained at the University of Florida, estimates that more than 5 million Americans have already cast ballots in the 35 states reporting early voting statistics. At the same point four years ago, the site counted fewer than 75,000 ballots cast. These numbers suggest two things. First, voters are heeding calls to give states more time to process an expected increase in mail-in balloting due to the pandemic. And second, that overall turnout this year may reach historic highs.
Professor Michael McDonald, who manages the site, estimates 150 million Americans will cast ballots, or what would be a record raw number and the highest turnout rate since 1908. This means civic-mindedness may also be at a high point.
Experiences in other countries show that electoral divisions can be overcome, especially with more inclusiveness, greater voter participation, or outside pressure.
In South Africa, an 11th-hour decision by a key faction to end its boycott of the country’s first-ever democratic election in 1994 was key to breaking four years of grisly preelection violence. Turnout at the polls was nearly 90%, giving the new government a more durable mandate. In Kosovo, prior to its first post-independence election in 2008, officials wisely held local elections to boost minority participation and build credibility for a future national government.
In societies without deep democratic traditions, election monitoring has become a mainstay of international diplomacy. During a tense audit of elections results in Afghanistan in 2014, the two rival candidates agreed to a U.S.-brokered deal to form a unity government. They recognized that a dispute over electoral fraud was undermining the country’s already fragile stability. The pact had its faults, but it eased immediate threats of wider conflict.
Americans are hardly in a civil war but it is well to recall President Abraham Lincoln’s 1863 visit to Gettysburg where he defended the nation’s founding ideals and the sacrifices made in defense of them. In divided times, politicians have often used the Pennsylvania site for similar purposes. In 1963, then-Vice President Lyndon Johnson journeyed there during the civil rights era to proclaim a vigil of racial justice. On Tuesday, Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden spoke at the Civil War battlefield about the ability of fair elections to reconcile Americans. “The power to vote,” he said, “is the noblest instrument ever devised to register our will in a peaceable and productive fashion.”
Get stories that
empower and uplift daily. By signing up, you agree to our Privacy Policy Already a subscriber? Log in to hide ads.
Just by itself, the shared experience of voting is a strong signal that Americans want to join together in improving the country as a whole. “Love is the only force powerful enough to overcome those incredibly powerful forces that are pulling us apart. You can’t love the country without caring about all of our fellow Americans,” said Bob Boisture, president of the Fetzer Institute, told The Chronicle of Philanthropy.
Concerns for the 2020 election process are already being lessened as more voters and more state officials step up like never before. Americans can wear two hats at once – partisan voter and democracy protector. At this point, the latter hat appears bigger.


csmonitor--2020-10-07--Two scientists win Nobel chemistry prize for gene-editing tool

Two scientists won the Nobel Prize in chemistry Wednesday for developing a way of editing genes , an ethically challenging technique likened to “ molecular scissors ” that offers the promise of curing some diseases and creating more robust agricultural crops .
Working on opposite sides of the Atlantic , Frenchwoman Emmanuelle Charpentier and American Jennifer Doudna came up with a method known as CRISPR-cas9 that can be used to change the DNA of animals , plants , and microorganisms .
It was the first time two women have won the chemistry Nobel together – adding to the small number @ @ @ @ @ @ @ where women have long received less recognition for their work than men .
The scientists ’ work allows for laser-sharp snips in the long strings of DNA that make up the “ code of life , ” allowing researchers to precisely edit specific genes to remove errors that lead to disease .
“ There is enormous power in this genetic tool , which affects us all , ” said Claes Gustafsson , chair of the Nobel Committee for Chemistry .
“ It has not only revolutionized basic science , but also resulted in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ new medical treatments.
” Dr. Gustafsson said that , as a result , any genome can now be edited “ to fix genetic damage.
” Dr. Francis Collins , who led the drive to map the human genome , said the technology “ has changed everything ” about how to approach diseases with a genetic cause .
“ You can draw a direct line from the success of the human genome project to the power of CRISPR-cas to make changes in the instruction book , ” said Dr. Collins , director of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Dr. Doudna ’ s work .
But many also cautioned that the technology must be used carefully and that it raises serious ethical questions .
Much of the world became more aware of CRISPR in 2018 , when Chinese scientist He Jiankui revealed he had helped make the world ’ s first gene-edited babies , to try to engineer resistance to future infection with the AIDS virus .
His work was denounced as unsafe human experimentation because of the risk of causing unintended changes that could pass to future generations , and he @ @ @ @ @ @ @ In September , an international panel of experts issued a report saying it ’ s still too soon to try to make genetically edited babies because the science isn ’ t advanced enough to ensure safety , but they mapped a pathway for countries that want to consider it .
“ Being able to selectively edit genes means that you are playing God in a way , ” said American Chemistry Society President Luis Echegoyen , a chemistry professor at the University of Texas El Paso .
Dr. Charpentier , 51 , spoke @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Strangely enough I was told a number of times [ that I ’ d win ] , but when it happens you ’ re very surprised and you feel that it ’ s not real , ” she told reporters by phone from Berlin after the award was announced in Stockholm by the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences .
“ But obviously it ’ s real , so I have to get used to it now.
” When asked about the significance of two women winning , Dr. Charpentier said that while she @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , she hoped it would encourage others .
“ I wish that this will provide a positive message to young girls who would like to follow the path of science , ” said Dr. Charpentier , who is currently the director of the Max Planck Unit for the Science of Pathogens in Berlin .
Dr. Doudna told The Associated Press of her own surprise – including that she learned she ’ d won from a reporter .
“ I literally just found out , I ’ m in shock , ” she said @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ My greatest hope is that it ’ s used for good , to uncover new mysteries in biology and to benefit humankind , ” said Dr. Doudna , who is affiliated with the University of California , Berkeley and is paid by the Howard Hughes Medical Institute , which also supports AP ’ s Health and Science Department .
The breakthrough research done by Dr. Charpentier and Dr. Doudna was published in 2012 , making the discovery very recent compared to many Nobel wins that are often only honored after decades have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ her lab , Dr. Charpentier said : “ This discovery is only eight years ago .
And it has boomed extremely .
Everyone is using now the CRISPR-cas9.
” Pernilla Wittung-Stafshede , a member of the Nobel Committee , noted that the method had “ already benefited humankind greatly.
” The Broad Institute at Harvard University and MIT have been in a long court fight over patents on CRISPR technology , and many other scientists did important work on it , but Dr. Doudna and Dr. Charpentier have been most consistently honored with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ usable tool .
The prestigious award comes with a gold medal and prize money of more than $ 1.1 million , courtesy of a bequest left more than a century ago by the prize ’ s creator , Swedish inventor Alfred Nobel .
The amount was increased recently to adjust for inflation .
On Monday , the Nobel Committee awarded the prize for physiology and medicine to Americans Harvey Alter and Charles Rice and British-born scientist Michael Houghton for discovering the liver-ravaging hepatitis C virus .
Tuesday ’ s prize for physics went @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Genzel of Germany , and Andrea Ghez of the United States for their breakthroughs in understanding the mysteries of cosmic black holes .
The other prizes are for outstanding work in the fields of literature , peace , and economics .
This story was reported by The Associated Press .
Christina Larson reported from Washington , and Frank Jordans from Berlin .
AP Chief Medical Writer Marilynn Marchione contributed from Milwaukee .

David Keyton, Christina Larson, and Frank Jordans

Two scientists won the Nobel Prize in chemistry Wednesday for developing a way of editing genes, an ethically challenging technique likened to “molecular scissors” that offers the promise of curing some diseases and creating more robust agricultural crops.
Working on opposite sides of the Atlantic, Frenchwoman Emmanuelle Charpentier and American Jennifer Doudna came up with a method known as CRISPR-cas9 that can be used to change the DNA of animals, plants, and microorganisms. It was the first time two women have won the chemistry Nobel together – adding to the small number of female laureates in the sciences, where women have long received less recognition for their work than men.
The scientists’ work allows for laser-sharp snips in the long strings of DNA that make up the “code of life,” allowing researchers to precisely edit specific genes to remove errors that lead to disease.
“There is enormous power in this genetic tool, which affects us all,” said Claes Gustafsson, chair of the Nobel Committee for Chemistry. “It has not only revolutionized basic science, but also resulted in innovative crops and will lead to groundbreaking new medical treatments.”
Dr. Gustafsson said that, as a result, any genome can now be edited “to fix genetic damage.”
Dr. Francis Collins, who led the drive to map the human genome, said the technology “has changed everything” about how to approach diseases with a genetic cause.
“You can draw a direct line from the success of the human genome project to the power of CRISPR-cas to make changes in the instruction book,” said Dr. Collins, director of the National Institutes of Health that helped fund Dr. Doudna’s work.
But many also cautioned that the technology must be used carefully and that it raises serious ethical questions. Much of the world became more aware of CRISPR in 2018, when Chinese scientist He Jiankui revealed he had helped make the world’s first gene-edited babies, to try to engineer resistance to future infection with the AIDS virus. His work was denounced as unsafe human experimentation because of the risk of causing unintended changes that could pass to future generations, and he’s currently imprisoned in China.
In September, an international panel of experts issued a report saying it’s still too soon to try to make genetically edited babies because the science isn’t advanced enough to ensure safety, but they mapped a pathway for countries that want to consider it.
“Being able to selectively edit genes means that you are playing God in a way,” said American Chemistry Society President Luis Echegoyen, a chemistry professor at the University of Texas El Paso.
Dr. Charpentier, 51, spoke of the shock of winning.
“Strangely enough I was told a number of times [that I’d win], but when it happens you’re very surprised and you feel that it’s not real,” she told reporters by phone from Berlin after the award was announced in Stockholm by the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences. “But obviously it’s real, so I have to get used to it now.”
When asked about the significance of two women winning, Dr. Charpentier said that while she considers herself first and foremost a scientist, she hoped it would encourage others.
“I wish that this will provide a positive message to young girls who would like to follow the path of science,” said Dr. Charpentier, who is currently the director of the Max Planck Unit for the Science of Pathogens in Berlin.
Dr. Doudna told The Associated Press of her own surprise – including that she learned she’d won from a reporter.
“I literally just found out, I’m in shock,” she said. “I was sound asleep.”
“My greatest hope is that it’s used for good, to uncover new mysteries in biology and to benefit humankind,” said Dr. Doudna, who is affiliated with the University of California, Berkeley and is paid by the Howard Hughes Medical Institute, which also supports AP’s Health and Science Department.
The breakthrough research done by Dr. Charpentier and Dr. Doudna was published in 2012, making the discovery very recent compared to many Nobel wins that are often only honored after decades have passed.
Speaking to reporters later at her lab, Dr. Charpentier said: “This discovery is only eight years ago. And it has boomed extremely. Everyone is using now the CRISPR-cas9.”
Pernilla Wittung-Stafshede, a member of the Nobel Committee, noted that the method had “already benefited humankind greatly.”
The Broad Institute at Harvard University and MIT have been in a long court fight over patents on CRISPR technology, and many other scientists did important work on it, but Dr. Doudna and Dr. Charpentier have been most consistently honored with prizes for turning it into an easily usable tool.
The prestigious award comes with a gold medal and prize money of more than $1.1 million, courtesy of a bequest left more than a century ago by the prize’s creator, Swedish inventor Alfred Nobel. The amount was increased recently to adjust for inflation.
On Monday, the Nobel Committee awarded the prize for physiology and medicine to Americans Harvey Alter and Charles Rice and British-born scientist Michael Houghton for discovering the liver-ravaging hepatitis C virus. Tuesday’s prize for physics went to Roger Penrose of Britain, Reinhard Genzel of Germany, and Andrea Ghez of the United States for their breakthroughs in understanding the mysteries of cosmic black holes.
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The other prizes are for outstanding work in the fields of literature, peace, and economics.
This story was reported by The Associated Press. Christina Larson reported from Washington, and Frank Jordans from Berlin. AP Chief Medical Writer Marilynn Marchione contributed from Milwaukee.


csmonitor--2020-10-07--In the work-from-home era, who pays for coffee and toilet paper?

As the world convulses in crisis , and tens of millions of us dig in for the long haul of working from home , one question looms large : Who pays for the tea and toilet paper ?
The answer , according to the Dutch , should be your bosses .
And how much ?
About $ 2.40 per working day , on average .
That ’ s meant to cover not only coffee , tea , and toilet paper used in work hours , but also the extra gas , electricity , and water , plus the depreciation costs @ @ @ @ @ @ @ all essentials that you ’ d never dream of paying for in the office .
“ We have literally calculated down to how many teaspoons there are in an average household , so from there it ’ s not that difficult to establish the costs , ” said Gabrielle Bettonville , of family finances institution NIBUD , which is mainly funded by the government and has researched the extra costs of remote working .
Such accounting may seem somewhat trivial at a time when the world is overwhelmed by a once-in-a-century pandemic , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a deep decline in office-based work could be a permanent legacy of the crisis .
Dutch authorities have already started applying NIBUD ’ s research , citing it to offer bureaucrats working from home a $ 427.35 COVID-19 “ bonus ” this year , starting in March when the country went into lockdown .
Of course , the $ 2.40 a day is for an average worker with average costs , but can be tweaked depending on measures such as home heating and water costs , or the quality of insulation .
It @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , phones , or other equipment which NIBUD says employees should receive from their employers if necessary for their work .
Other countries are also moving to adjust to the new work-from-home reality , aware that many employees have little appetite to return to the office full-time even once the pandemic has passed .
Spain has obliged employers to pay for home office maintenance and equipment ; Germany is debating a bill enshrining remote workers ’ rights ; France has passed a law shielding them from after-hours email ; Britain has hinted that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ deductions for work-related equipment purchased during the pandemic .
But few nations have delved into the detail as deeply as the Dutch .
“ The government has set a good example here , ” said Jose Kager of FNV , the country ’ s largest labor union , which wants all home-workers to receive compensation along the lines laid out by NIBUD .
“ We ’ re talking about structural , ongoing costs of working from home , ” she added .
Many of FNV ’ s members still have to physically show @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at paintmaker AkzoNobel ’ s factories and Heineken ’ s breweries .
But most bank workers , insurance company employees , call center staffers , and many others have been working from home since March .
Around 80 % of Dutch workers are covered by collective labor agreements .
Bank ABN Amro pays for workers to outfit their home offices , but routine expenses remain an open question .
Spokesman Jarco de Swart said the bank did not believe workers would ever work from the office more than three days a week .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ to the story .
Bosses argue extra payments make little sense at a time when the coronavirus crisis has floored the economy .
Additionally , Dutch employers ’ association AWVN spokesman Jannes van der Velde said the NIBUD calculations did not reflect all the benefits home workers were enjoying .
“ This call from unions for everybody to get compensation because people are now making their own coffee at home – one might observe that workers are also getting a lot of free time in exchange , ” he said , citing average @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from the lack of commuting .
While workers should be compensated for home office costs , that will be offset by cuts to their compensation for transit and other travel benefits , he added .
“ It won ’ t be the case that people , pretty much anywhere , are going to get an extra “ bonus ” on top of their salary – definitely not during an economic recession.
” And , of course , there are limits .
Surely it makes perfect sense for a boss to cough up for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , according to Jeroen van Velzen of the Dutch interior ministry , which is covering additional costs on a case-by-case basis .
“ No , of course this is limited to the things that are needed to be able to perform your work , ” he said .
This story was reported by Reuters .
Editor ’ s note : As a public service , the Monitor has removed the paywall for all our coronavirus coverage .
It ’ s free .

As the world convulses in crisis, and tens of millions of us dig in for the long haul of working from home, one question looms large: Who pays for the tea and toilet paper?
The answer, according to the Dutch, should be your bosses.
And how much? About $2.40 per working day, on average.
That’s meant to cover not only coffee, tea, and toilet paper used in work hours, but also the extra gas, electricity, and water, plus the depreciation costs of a desk and a chair – all essentials that you’d never dream of paying for in the office. “We have literally calculated down to how many teaspoons there are in an average household, so from there it’s not that difficult to establish the costs,” said Gabrielle Bettonville, of family finances institution NIBUD, which is mainly funded by the government and has researched the extra costs of remote working.
Such accounting may seem somewhat trivial at a time when the world is overwhelmed by a once-in-a-century pandemic, yet they are relevant as experts predict a deep decline in office-based work could be a permanent legacy of the crisis.
Dutch authorities have already started applying NIBUD’s research, citing it to offer bureaucrats working from home a $427.35 COVID-19 “bonus” this year, starting in March when the country went into lockdown.
Of course, the $2.40 a day is for an average worker with average costs, but can be tweaked depending on measures such as home heating and water costs, or the quality of insulation.
It does not cover new furniture, computers, phones, or other equipment which NIBUD says employees should receive from their employers if necessary for their work.
A new workday reality
Other countries are also moving to adjust to the new work-from-home reality, aware that many employees have little appetite to return to the office full-time even once the pandemic has passed.
Spain has obliged employers to pay for home office maintenance and equipment; Germany is debating a bill enshrining remote workers’ rights; France has passed a law shielding them from after-hours email; Britain has hinted that it may relax the rules on tax deductions for work-related equipment purchased during the pandemic.
But few nations have delved into the detail as deeply as the Dutch.
“The government has set a good example here,” said Jose Kager of FNV, the country’s largest labor union, which wants all home-workers to receive compensation along the lines laid out by NIBUD.
“We’re talking about structural, ongoing costs of working from home,” she added.
Many of FNV’s members still have to physically show up for work, such as those at paintmaker AkzoNobel’s factories and Heineken’s breweries. But most bank workers, insurance company employees, call center staffers, and many others have been working from home since March. Around 80% of Dutch workers are covered by collective labor agreements.
Bank ABN Amro pays for workers to outfit their home offices, but routine expenses remain an open question. Spokesman Jarco de Swart said the bank did not believe workers would ever work from the office more than three days a week.
Cappuccino machine, anyone?
As ever, there are two sides to the story. Bosses argue extra payments make little sense at a time when the coronavirus crisis has floored the economy.
Additionally, Dutch employers’ association AWVN spokesman Jannes van der Velde said the NIBUD calculations did not reflect all the benefits home workers were enjoying.
“This call from unions for everybody to get compensation because people are now making their own coffee at home – one might observe that workers are also getting a lot of free time in exchange,” he said, citing average time savings of one hour per day from the lack of commuting.
While workers should be compensated for home office costs, that will be offset by cuts to their compensation for transit and other travel benefits, he added.
“It won’t be the case that people, pretty much anywhere, are going to get an extra “bonus” on top of their salary – definitely not during an economic recession.”
And, of course, there are limits.
Surely it makes perfect sense for a boss to cough up for a productivity-enhancing cappuccino machine?
Apparently not, according to Jeroen van Velzen of the Dutch interior ministry, which is covering additional costs on a case-by-case basis.
“No, of course this is limited to the things that are needed to be able to perform your work,” he said.
Get stories that
empower and uplift daily. By signing up, you agree to our Privacy Policy Already a subscriber? Log in to hide ads.
This story was reported by Reuters.
Editor’s note: As a public service, the Monitor has removed the paywall for all our coronavirus coverage. It’s free.