csmonitor--2020-11-10--Why Trump decision to block Biden transition matters

“ This is shaping up to be the most fraught transition in modern history , ” says Rebecca Lissner , a scholar at Georgetown University ’ s Center for Security Studies and co-author of the book “ An Open World.
” For now , however , the Trump administration is preventing the Biden team from accessing federal funds , placing transition personnel in government agencies , and beginning to process incoming personnel , including security clearances .
The implications for national security can be especially profound .
Trump officials cite the delayed transition of 2000 as precedent .
But in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ close in one pivotal state , Florida , involving a recount and ultimately the intervention of the Supreme Court .
This year , a few key states have posted close results , but nowhere near as close as Florida ’ s 537 votes in 2000 .
Barring unforeseen developments , Mr. Biden will assume the presidency in January .
The Trump administration is also blocking routine actions that would facilitate a transition to a Biden administration .
President Donald Trump has yet to concede the Nov. 3 election to former Vice President Joe @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as the winner .
In addition , President Trump is encouraging legal challenges to the vote counts in key battleground states .
The Trump White House ’ s decision to block routine actions that would facilitate a transition to a Biden administration has added a new layer of turmoil to an already turbulent time .
But this is the Trump era , when many norms of governance have already fallen by the wayside .
President Donald Trump has yet to concede the Nov. 3 election to former Vice President Joe Biden , whom @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
In addition , President Trump is encouraging legal challenges to the vote counts in key battleground states , which Republicans are pursuing .
The rub comes in the Trump administration ’ s decision to refrain , via the administrator of an obscure government agency , from “ ascertaining ” that Mr. Biden is the “ apparent successful candidate.
” By law , “ ascertainment ” is not a formal concession of the election ; it ’ s a declaration that helps smooth the transition to a potential new administration .
By failing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Trump administration has blocked the Biden team from accessing federal funds , placing transition personnel in government agencies , and beginning to process incoming personnel , including security clearances .
Mr. Biden also has yet to receive a presidential daily briefing , a document containing classified intelligence analysis .
The implications for national security can be especially profound .
“ This is shaping up to be the most fraught transition in modern history , ” says Rebecca Lissner , a scholar at Georgetown University ’ s Center for Security Studies and co-author of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The pandemic , economic recession , and national racial reckoning make the threat of an extended , contested election outcome – and rocky transition – all the more consequential .
The Sept. 11 , 2001 , terror attacks show the potential consequences of a curtailed presidential transition .
The 9/11 Commission report cites the fact that President George W. Bush ’ s team was still not fully in place when the attack came , less than eight months after he took office .
He became president after the famously close election of 2000 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in mid-December , after a Supreme Court ruling .
“ There was an awakening about the importance of the transition as a result of 9/11 , ” says Max Stier , president and CEO of the nonpartisan Partnership for Public Service .
President Bush became a top proponent of putting in place mechanisms to ensure a smooth transition , no matter how close or messy an election .
He “ ushered out his administration better than anyone had ever done before , because he understood what was at play here , ” Mr. @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and 2010 helped smooth out presidential transitions , especially in the realm of security clearances .
Why 2020 election is not like 2000 But Mr. Trump is not Mr. Bush .
And 2020 is not 2000 .
Twenty years ago , the presidential election was microscopically close in one pivotal state , Florida , involving a recount and ultimately the intervention of the Supreme Court .
This year , a few key states have posted close results so far , but nowhere near as close as Florida ’ s 537 votes in 2000 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and recounts expected in battleground states , Mr. Biden will assume the presidency in January .
Team Biden is reportedly considering legal action to trigger the law that governs presidential transitions .
Before the election , Politico reports , the Biden campaign foresaw problems ahead , and began hiring , vetting , and fundraising for a transition , which it ’ s legally allowed to do .
Trump administration officials are citing the delayed transition of 2000 as precedent .
Then , the Democratic-appointed head of the General Services Administration – the agency @ @ @ @ @ @ @ until Mr. Bush had won the election to sign the statement of ascertainment .
The Presidential Transition Act of 1963 does not state exactly when the head of the GSA can or must ascertain an apparent winner .
Clay Johnson , executive director of Mr. Bush ’ s presidential transition in 2000 , says in an interview that cooperation between administrations can make a transition more pleasant but isn ’ t essential .
“ It ’ s nice to feel like you ’ re welcome and that you ’ re all – the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” Mr. Johnson says .
He adds that , while the delayed transition was inconvenient in 2000 , it wasn ’ t a big impediment then and shouldn ’ t be today .
Then , as now , they didn ’ t have access to government money , but raising money for a transition team is easy , he says .
Donors have just spent big to get you into office , and they ’ re not going to miss an opportunity to help once the election appears to be won .
“ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ effort is that there are lawsuits or people who authorized some recount , it ’ s important also to have great faith in the accuracy and legitimacy of the vote , ” Mr. Johnson says .
“ It ’ s a small price to pay by everybody , to have us all be confident that the vote is the vote.
” Denis McDonough , former chief of staff for President Barack Obama , disagrees with Mr. Johnson ’ s assertion that delayed cooperation isn ’ t enormously important .
There ’ s an @ @ @ @ @ @ @ McDonough , who worked on the transition from Mr. Bush to Mr. Obama , then the transition to Mr. Trump .
“ The first thing that you do is you try to make sure that you hit the statutory requirements , ” says Mr. McDonough , now a public policy professor at the University of Notre Dame in Indiana .
Then , “ you try to create a culture among your people that it ’ s part of their job responsibility to conduct a successful transition , ” because democracy requires that peaceful @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Some presidential transition activities take place before the election .
Under White House chief of staff Mark Meadows , the Trump administration established a White House Transition Coordinating Council , as required by law .
And the Justice Department has been processing security clearances for key Biden officials , a move aimed at ensuring access to intelligence and protecting the nation from foreign adversaries .
At Notre Dame , Professor McDonough and a research team created a rubric to measure the progress of the transition process – essentially checking off the statutes that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to that measure , 73 % of the requirements have so far been fulfilled .
But the lack of “ ascertainment , ” for now , is an especially important missing element .
Some presidential transitions are messy not because of the outgoing administration but because of internal factors .
In November 2016 , days after Mr. Trump was elected president , New Jersey Gov .
Chris Christie was replaced by Vice President-elect Mike Pence as head of the Trump presidential transition .
Binders full of detailed transition planning were thrown in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of grief for his administration ; they were slow to get going , ” says Mr. Stier of the Partnership for Public Service .
“ To this day , they don ’ t have all their people in place .
It ’ s very hard to catch up if you fall behind.
” The U.S. government , after all , is a $ 5 trillion-plus enterprise , employing 4 million people , including the military , and 4,000 political appointments .
“ In order to do it right , you have to prepare @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Stier says .
“ The Biden team got out of the box early .
They ’ ve been doing a lot of good work , and now they really need the access to the agencies , they need their personnel processed , and they need the money.
” In the White House itself , the transition is especially stark .
“ The vast number of people in the White House are political appointees who on Jan. 20 at 11:59 a.m. will be working for Donald Trump , and then they will leave , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ government studies at the Bipartisan Policy Center in Washington .
“ Their offices will literally just be vacant and other people will show up.
” Vetting all these people is an arduous process , “ which I think goes under the radar , ” he says .

“This is shaping up to be the most fraught transition in modern history,” says Rebecca Lissner, a scholar at Georgetown University’s Center for Security Studies and co-author of the book “An Open World.”
For now, however, the Trump administration is preventing the Biden team from accessing federal funds, placing transition personnel in government agencies, and beginning to process incoming personnel, including security clearances. The implications for national security can be especially profound.
Trump officials cite the delayed transition of 2000 as precedent. But in 2000, the presidential election was microscopically close in one pivotal state, Florida, involving a recount and ultimately the intervention of the Supreme Court. This year, a few key states have posted close results, but nowhere near as close as Florida’s 537 votes in 2000. Barring unforeseen developments, Mr. Biden will assume the presidency in January.
Until now, smooth transitions of power had been a hallmark of U.S. democracy. The pandemic, economic recession, and national racial reckoning make the threat of a contested election – and rocky transition – all the more consequential.
The Trump administration is also blocking routine actions that would facilitate a transition to a Biden administration.
President Donald Trump has yet to concede the Nov. 3 election to former Vice President Joe Biden, whom major media have projected as the winner. In addition, President Trump is encouraging legal challenges to the vote counts in key battleground states.
The Trump White House’s decision to block routine actions that would facilitate a transition to a Biden administration has added a new layer of turmoil to an already turbulent time.
But this is the Trump era, when many norms of governance have already fallen by the wayside.
President Donald Trump has yet to concede the Nov. 3 election to former Vice President Joe Biden, whom major media have projected as the winner. In addition, President Trump is encouraging legal challenges to the vote counts in key battleground states, which Republicans are pursuing.
Why We Wrote This Until now, smooth transitions of power had been a hallmark of U.S. democracy. The pandemic, economic recession, and national racial reckoning make the threat of a contested election – and rocky transition – all the more consequential.
The rub comes in the Trump administration’s decision to refrain, via the administrator of an obscure government agency, from “ascertaining” that Mr. Biden is the “apparent successful candidate.” By law, “ascertainment” is not a formal concession of the election; it’s a declaration that helps smooth the transition to a potential new administration.
By failing to take this legal step, the Trump administration has blocked the Biden team from accessing federal funds, placing transition personnel in government agencies, and beginning to process incoming personnel, including security clearances. Mr. Biden also has yet to receive a presidential daily briefing, a document containing classified intelligence analysis. The implications for national security can be especially profound.
“This is shaping up to be the most fraught transition in modern history,” says Rebecca Lissner, a scholar at Georgetown University’s Center for Security Studies and co-author of the book “An Open World.”
The pandemic, economic recession, and national racial reckoning make the threat of an extended, contested election outcome – and rocky transition – all the more consequential.
The Sept. 11, 2001, terror attacks show the potential consequences of a curtailed presidential transition. The 9/11 Commission report cites the fact that President George W. Bush’s team was still not fully in place when the attack came, less than eight months after he took office. He became president after the famously close election of 2000, and was declared the winner only in mid-December, after a Supreme Court ruling.
“There was an awakening about the importance of the transition as a result of 9/11,” says Max Stier, president and CEO of the nonpartisan Partnership for Public Service.
President Bush became a top proponent of putting in place mechanisms to ensure a smooth transition, no matter how close or messy an election. He “ushered out his administration better than anyone had ever done before, because he understood what was at play here,” Mr. Stier says.
Legislation passed in 2004 and 2010 helped smooth out presidential transitions, especially in the realm of security clearances.
Pablo Martinez Monsivais/AP/File View caption Hide caption President Barack Obama meets with President-elect Donald Trump in the Oval Office of the White House Nov. 10, 2016. This month, President Trump has refused to concede to President-elect Joe Biden, setting up a rocky transition during the pandemic.
Why 2020 election is not like 2000
But Mr. Trump is not Mr. Bush. And 2020 is not 2000. Twenty years ago, the presidential election was microscopically close in one pivotal state, Florida, involving a recount and ultimately the intervention of the Supreme Court. This year, a few key states have posted close results so far, but nowhere near as close as Florida’s 537 votes in 2000. Barring an unforeseen development in audits and recounts expected in battleground states, Mr. Biden will assume the presidency in January.
Team Biden is reportedly considering legal action to trigger the law that governs presidential transitions. Before the election, Politico reports, the Biden campaign foresaw problems ahead, and began hiring, vetting, and fundraising for a transition, which it’s legally allowed to do.
Trump administration officials are citing the delayed transition of 2000 as precedent. Then, the Democratic-appointed head of the General Services Administration – the agency that officially starts the transition – waited until Mr. Bush had won the election to sign the statement of ascertainment. The Presidential Transition Act of 1963 does not state exactly when the head of the GSA can or must ascertain an apparent winner.
Clay Johnson, executive director of Mr. Bush’s presidential transition in 2000, says in an interview that cooperation between administrations can make a transition more pleasant but isn’t essential.
“It’s nice to feel like you’re welcome and that you’re all – the incoming and outgoing – equally American,” Mr. Johnson says.
He adds that, while the delayed transition was inconvenient in 2000, it wasn’t a big impediment then and shouldn’t be today. Then, as now, they didn’t have access to government money, but raising money for a transition team is easy, he says. Donors have just spent big to get you into office, and they’re not going to miss an opportunity to help once the election appears to be won.
“And if the reason for the extra effort is that there are lawsuits or people who authorized some recount, it’s important also to have great faith in the accuracy and legitimacy of the vote,” Mr. Johnson says. “It’s a small price to pay by everybody, to have us all be confident that the vote is the vote.”
The process of a presidential transition
Denis McDonough, former chief of staff for President Barack Obama, disagrees with Mr. Johnson’s assertion that delayed cooperation isn’t enormously important.
There’s an etiquette to the process, says Mr. McDonough, who worked on the transition from Mr. Bush to Mr. Obama, then the transition to Mr. Trump.
“The first thing that you do is you try to make sure that you hit the statutory requirements,” says Mr. McDonough, now a public policy professor at the University of Notre Dame in Indiana.
Then, “you try to create a culture among your people that it’s part of their job responsibility to conduct a successful transition,” because democracy requires that peaceful transition of power, he says.
Some presidential transition activities take place before the election. Under White House chief of staff Mark Meadows, the Trump administration established a White House Transition Coordinating Council, as required by law. And the Justice Department has been processing security clearances for key Biden officials, a move aimed at ensuring access to intelligence and protecting the nation from foreign adversaries.
At Notre Dame, Professor McDonough and a research team created a rubric to measure the progress of the transition process – essentially checking off the statutes that have been fulfilled so far. According to that measure, 73% of the requirements have so far been fulfilled. But the lack of “ascertainment,” for now, is an especially important missing element.
Some presidential transitions are messy not because of the outgoing administration but because of internal factors. In November 2016, days after Mr. Trump was elected president, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie was replaced by Vice President-elect Mike Pence as head of the Trump presidential transition. Binders full of detailed transition planning were thrown in the trash.
“That caused a lot of grief for his administration; they were slow to get going,” says Mr. Stier of the Partnership for Public Service. “To this day, they don’t have all their people in place. It’s very hard to catch up if you fall behind.”
The U.S. government, after all, is a $5 trillion-plus enterprise, employing 4 million people, including the military, and 4,000 political appointments.
“In order to do it right, you have to prepare – aggressively and early,” Mr. Stier says. “The Biden team got out of the box early. They’ve been doing a lot of good work, and now they really need the access to the agencies, they need their personnel processed, and they need the money.”
In the White House itself, the transition is especially stark.
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“The vast number of people in the White House are political appointees who on Jan. 20 at 11:59 a.m. will be working for Donald Trump, and then they will leave,” says John Fortier, director of government studies at the Bipartisan Policy Center in Washington. “Their offices will literally just be vacant and other people will show up.”
Vetting all these people is an arduous process, “which I think goes under the radar,” he says.


csmonitor--2020-11-10--What ‘blue wave’? Why pre-election polls faltered again.

Michael Traugott , a research professor emeritus at the University of Michigan , compares it to a cake recipe in which the ingredients are listed correctly but their proportion is unknown .
“ The portion of the recipe that was early-voting was too large , ” he says .
One big challenge : The propensity of voters to respond to polls isn ’ t equally distributed .
Democrats may be overrepresented , as Trump voters with low levels of social trust are harder to poll .
This may have contributed to a low estimate of turnout by Republicans – who @ @ @ @ @ @ @ early by mail .
Accurate polling rests on two critical calculations : the makeup of the electorate and which eligible voters are most likely to vote .
These calculations allow polling agencies to weigh the responses to surveys and make projections .
Most opinion polls showed Democrat Joe Biden leading President Donald Trump by a wide margin in the run-up to the Nov. 3 election .
Mr. Biden ’ s winning margins in battleground states proved to be much narrower than predicted .
Similarly , many Democrats in congressional races underperformed their polls @ @ @ @ @ @ @ failed to learn after its misses in the 2016 presidential election .
A majority of opinion polls showed Democrat Joe Biden leading President Donald Trump by a wide margin in the run-up to the Nov. 3 election .
But President-elect Biden ’ s winning margins in battleground states like Wisconsin and Michigan proved to be much narrower than the polls predicted .
Similarly , many Democrats in congressional races underperformed their polls .
No “ blue wave ” materialized for Democrats to retake a majority in the U.S. Senate .
Critics say the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ its misses in the 2016 presidential election .
How wrong were the polls in predicting the 2020 election results ?
In terms of the popular vote , not as much as you might think .
The final RealClearPolitics average of polls had former Vice President Biden ahead by 7.2 percentage points .
Similarly , FiveThirtyEight projected a margin of victory for Mr. Biden of 8.4 points .
As ballots are still being counted , including provisional and mail-in ballots in non-battleground states , the final tally is likely to change .
Mr. Biden @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , but analysts say that could climb toward 5 points , given where the outstanding ballots are .
The average polling error for presidential elections since 1968 was 3 points , according to FiveThirtyEight .
So pollsters could end up within – or not far from – normal margins of error on the overall popular vote .
Where the polls erred more was in battleground states that both candidates needed to win .
The final RealClearPolitics average for Wisconsin predicted a 7-point win for Mr. Biden , with smaller margins in Michigan and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ little change during the campaign , suggesting that Mr. Biden ’ s advantage was stable .
In the end , his victories in these three crucial states were thin ; Wisconsin was won by 20,540 votes .
Some pollsters did better in predicting state-level votes .
Suffolk University Political Research Center was within 2 points of final results in Florida , Arizona , New Hampshire , and Minnesota , although it also overestimated Mr. Biden ’ s margin in Pennsylvania .
Even more erratic was the polling for closely watched congressional races like @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Collins in Maine .
Pre-election polls put her opponent , Sara Gideon , in a strong lead ; Senator Collins won by 9 points .
In South Carolina , incumbent Sen. Lindsey Graham beat his Democratic challenger by 10 points , defying polls showing a dead heat .
Analysts say ticket-splitting may have been an under-appreciated factor in states like Maine , where Mr. Biden ran far ahead of Hillary Clinton ’ s margin of victory in 2016 but failed to lift Ms. Gideon .
Intensifying partisanship tends to boost straight-party tickets .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ common is a direction of travel : support for Democratic candidates was often wildly overestimated .
What is behind these misses in election polling ?
Accurate polling rests on two critical calculations : The makeup of the electorate and which eligible voters are most likely to cast ballots .
These calculations allow polling agencies to weigh the responses to surveys and project the outcome of an actual election .
In 2016 , most state polls failed to predict Mr. Trump ’ s Electoral College victory , in part because their surveys didn ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the turnout in rural areas .
In the aftermath , surveys were adjusted to account for these demographics .
Experts caution that it ’ s too early to pinpoint what went wrong in 2020 since not all ballots have been counted .
But it appears that pollsters may have been thrown off by high turnout – the highest in at least 50 years – and the popularity of mail-in and early voting during a pandemic .
In Texas , which expanded early in-person voting , turnout by eligible voters rose 9 points .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ identify more actual voters as opposed to likely voters .
This may have led to a pro-Biden bias in their sample , since fewer Republicans voted in advance amid Mr. Trump ’ s baseless claims about fraud in mailed ballots .
Michael Traugott , a research professor emeritus at the University of Michigan , compares it to a cake recipe in which the ingredients are listed correctly but their proportion is unknown .
“ The portion of the recipe that was early voting was too large , ” he says .
Unlike in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ third-party voters .
That year , a significant number of late-breaking voters in battleground states went to Mr. Trump .
But that doesn ’ t appear to be a factor in 2020 that could explain the underestimation of his support .
Conservatives argue that pollsters miss Mr. Trump ’ s support because respondents are reluctant to state their preference , knowing that it may be socially unacceptable , particularly in professional circles .
Studies have failed to replicate the “ shy Trump voter ” hypothesis .
A bigger factor may be that Trump @ @ @ @ @ @ @ surveys because they don ’ t trust pollsters .
Has it become harder to survey public opinion on voting intentions ?
Caller ID and call blocking has made it harder to conduct live surveys .
Some polling agencies rely more on robocalls ; others have turned to online surveys that may not be as reliable .
This drives up the cost of polling and may have contributed to polling errors in 2020 , though it was already a factor in 2018 when more of the midterm polling was accurate .
However , this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rates since more voters were at home , says David Paleologos , the director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center .
“ We were finishing projects a day earlier than scheduled , ” he says .
Voters seemed happy to talk to a pollster , perhaps because they were tired of talking politics with others in their household .
But as noted , the propensity of voters to respond to polls isn ’ t equally distributed .
The bias in surveys may reflect Democrats being overrepresented , as Trump voters with lower @ @ @ @ @ @ @ poll .

Michael Traugott, a research professor emeritus at the University of Michigan, compares it to a cake recipe in which the ingredients are listed correctly but their proportion is unknown. “The portion of the recipe that was early-voting was too large,” he says.
One big challenge: The propensity of voters to respond to polls isn’t equally distributed. Democrats may be overrepresented, as Trump voters with low levels of social trust are harder to poll. This may have contributed to a low estimate of turnout by Republicans – who were less likely than Democrats to vote early by mail.
A conundrum of the recent U.S. election is how pollsters failed again, despite their soul-searching after the 2016 election. Here are some theories on this important industry that reflects – and helps to shape – public thought.
Accurate polling rests on two critical calculations: the makeup of the electorate and which eligible voters are most likely to vote. These calculations allow polling agencies to weigh the responses to surveys and make projections.
Most opinion polls showed Democrat Joe Biden leading President Donald Trump by a wide margin in the run-up to the Nov. 3 election. Mr. Biden’s winning margins in battleground states proved to be much narrower than predicted. Similarly, many Democrats in congressional races underperformed their polls. Critics say the polling industry has failed to learn after its misses in the 2016 presidential election.
A majority of opinion polls showed Democrat Joe Biden leading President Donald Trump by a wide margin in the run-up to the Nov. 3 election. But President-elect Biden’s winning margins in battleground states like Wisconsin and Michigan proved to be much narrower than the polls predicted.
Similarly, many Democrats in congressional races underperformed their polls. No “blue wave” materialized for Democrats to retake a majority in the U.S. Senate.
Critics say the polling industry has failed to learn after its misses in the 2016 presidential election.
Why We Wrote This A conundrum of the recent U.S. election is how pollsters failed again, despite their soul-searching after the 2016 election. Here are some theories on this important industry that reflects – and helps to shape – public thought.
How wrong were the polls in predicting the 2020 election results?
In terms of the popular vote, not as much as you might think. The final RealClearPolitics average of polls had former Vice President Biden ahead by 7.2 percentage points. Similarly, FiveThirtyEight projected a margin of victory for Mr. Biden of 8.4 points.
As ballots are still being counted, including provisional and mail-in ballots in non-battleground states, the final tally is likely to change. Mr. Biden is currently ahead by 3 percentage points, but analysts say that could climb toward 5 points, given where the outstanding ballots are. The average polling error for presidential elections since 1968 was 3 points, according to FiveThirtyEight. So pollsters could end up within – or not far from – normal margins of error on the overall popular vote.
Where the polls erred more was in battleground states that both candidates needed to win. The final RealClearPolitics average for Wisconsin predicted a 7-point win for Mr. Biden, with smaller margins in Michigan and Pennsylvania. Most polls also had shown little change during the campaign, suggesting that Mr. Biden’s advantage was stable. In the end, his victories in these three crucial states were thin; Wisconsin was won by 20,540 votes.
Some pollsters did better in predicting state-level votes. Suffolk University Political Research Center was within 2 points of final results in Florida, Arizona, New Hampshire, and Minnesota, although it also overestimated Mr. Biden’s margin in Pennsylvania.
Even more erratic was the polling for closely watched congressional races like the Senate seat defended by Republican Susan Collins in Maine. Pre-election polls put her opponent, Sara Gideon, in a strong lead; Senator Collins won by 9 points. In South Carolina, incumbent Sen. Lindsey Graham beat his Democratic challenger by 10 points, defying polls showing a dead heat.
Analysts say ticket-splitting may have been an under-appreciated factor in states like Maine, where Mr. Biden ran far ahead of Hillary Clinton’s margin of victory in 2016 but failed to lift Ms. Gideon. Intensifying partisanship tends to boost straight-party tickets.
What all these polling inaccuracies have in common is a direction of travel: support for Democratic candidates was often wildly overestimated.
What is behind these misses in election polling?
Accurate polling rests on two critical calculations: The makeup of the electorate and which eligible voters are most likely to cast ballots. These calculations allow polling agencies to weigh the responses to surveys and project the outcome of an actual election.
In 2016, most state polls failed to predict Mr. Trump’s Electoral College victory, in part because their surveys didn’t include enough non-college-educated voters and underestimated the turnout in rural areas. In the aftermath, surveys were adjusted to account for these demographics.
Experts caution that it’s too early to pinpoint what went wrong in 2020 since not all ballots have been counted. But it appears that pollsters may have been thrown off by high turnout – the highest in at least 50 years – and the popularity of mail-in and early voting during a pandemic. In Texas, which expanded early in-person voting, turnout by eligible voters rose 9 points.
Early voting meant that pre-election surveys could identify more actual voters as opposed to likely voters. This may have led to a pro-Biden bias in their sample, since fewer Republicans voted in advance amid Mr. Trump’s baseless claims about fraud in mailed ballots.
Michael Traugott, a research professor emeritus at the University of Michigan, compares it to a cake recipe in which the ingredients are listed correctly but their proportion is unknown. “The portion of the recipe that was early voting was too large,” he says.
Unlike in 2016, surveys found few undecided or third-party voters. That year, a significant number of late-breaking voters in battleground states went to Mr. Trump. But that doesn’t appear to be a factor in 2020 that could explain the underestimation of his support.
Conservatives argue that pollsters miss Mr. Trump’s support because respondents are reluctant to state their preference, knowing that it may be socially unacceptable, particularly in professional circles. Studies have failed to replicate the “shy Trump voter” hypothesis. A bigger factor may be that Trump supporters are less likely to participate in surveys because they don’t trust pollsters.
Has it become harder to survey public opinion on voting intentions?
Caller ID and call blocking has made it harder to conduct live surveys. Some polling agencies rely more on robocalls; others have turned to online surveys that may not be as reliable. This drives up the cost of polling and may have contributed to polling errors in 2020, though it was already a factor in 2018 when more of the midterm polling was accurate.
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empower and uplift daily. By signing up, you agree to our Privacy Policy Already a subscriber? Log in to hide ads.
However, this year the pandemic led to higher response rates since more voters were at home, says David Paleologos, the director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center. “We were finishing projects a day earlier than scheduled,” he says. Voters seemed happy to talk to a pollster, perhaps because they were tired of talking politics with others in their household.
But as noted, the propensity of voters to respond to polls isn’t equally distributed. The bias in surveys may reflect Democrats being overrepresented, as Trump voters with lower levels of social trust are harder to poll.


csmonitor--2020-11-10--Hope grows for Native communities as record number win House seats

Internet access , health care , and basic necessities like running water and electricity within Indigenous communities have long been at the center of congressional debates .
But until recently , Congress didn ’ t have many Indigenous members who were pushing for solutions and funding for those issues .
Hope is growing after the Native delegation in the United States House of Representatives expanded by two on Election Day : Yvette Herrell , who is Cherokee and prevailed in New Mexico ’ s 2nd Congressional District , and Kai Kahele , a Native Hawaiian who won that state ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ four Native Americans who won reelection : Reps. Deb Haaland of New Mexico , who ’ s Laguna ; Sharice Davids of Kansas , who ’ s Ho-Chunk ; Markwayne Mullin of Oklahoma , who ’ s Cherokee ; and Tom Cole of Oklahoma , who ’ s Chickasaw .
Of the six who prevailed , half are Democrats and half Republican – a divide Mr. Cole said would “ absolutely be indispensable in passing anything the next two years.
” The winners were among a dozen Indigenous major-party candidates running in top-of-the-ticket @ @ @ @ @ @ @ affairs to be non-partisan , ” Mr. Cole said Monday .
“ The tribal sovereignty and trust responsibility are not partisan issues .
You either believe in those or you don ’ t. ” Representation means progress , scholars say , particularly for Indigenous children who will see their language and culture on display in Congress .
It ’ s fueled by efforts to recruit Indigenous candidates and back them financially , get-out-the-vote efforts , and Native communities flexing their political muscle .
About 100 Indigenous candidates were on general election ballots across @ @ @ @ @ @ @ state legislatures .
“ It ’ s seeing people that look like us in Congress that is inspiring women , more than anything , to run , ” said Traci Morris , executive director of the American Indian Policy Institute at Arizona State University , who ’ s Chickasaw .
“ That ’ s what I see – I see we all think we can do it now .
And there was huge involvement.
” Still , Indigenous people remain underrepresented in Congress .
The U.S. Senate has not had a Native American @ @ @ @ @ @ @ retired in 2005 .
He has Northern Cheyenne heritage .
Democrat Paulette Jordan , who is Coeur d ’ Alene , lost to the incumbent for a U.S. Senate seat in Idaho this year .
But the House victories won ’ t necessarily translate to immediate power in Washington .
Mr. Kahele said he imagines he ’ ll spend time learning about Indigenous issues outside of his native Hawaii and educating other Native and non-Natives in Congress .
And while it ’ s not easy to ignore Indigenous lawmakers if they ’ re @ @ @ @ @ @ @ can be pigeonholed , said Richard Monette , who teaches federal Indian law at the University of Wisconsin-Madison .
“ I think that , in the end , the scale tips toward being more good than bad , ” said Mr. Monette , a former chairman of the Turtle Mountain Band of Chippewa .
“ That ’ s fair to say , but I will say this is complex.
” Ms. Herrell , for example , said she ’ s proud of her heritage but didn ’ t tout it in her bid @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a complicated district that includes minority communities along the U.S.-Mexico border , tribes , ranchers , farmers , and oil and gas industry workers .
“ I really prefer to call myself an American , ” she told The Associated Press .
“ I ’ m a New Mexican , and it ’ s not about labels , it ’ s not about race .
It ’ s about people and representing all of our values , all of our shared likes and even dislikes and coming together.
” The House formed the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that has dozens of non-Indigenous members and is now led by Mr. Cole and Ms. Haaland .
Most notably , it worked to pass two bills to help address the epidemic of missing and slain Native American women .
But the leadership team , which also includes Ms. Davids and Mr. Mullin , doesn ’ t always agree .
“ We all make decisions based on two things : our life experiences and the way we were raised , ” Mr. Mullin said in a statement to the AP .
“ With more @ @ @ @ @ @ @ make a bigger impact and better educate our colleagues about Native issues.
” Ms. Haaland and Mr. Cole said the focus in the upcoming session will be COVID-19 ’ s impact on Native communities , chronic shortfalls in federal funding for tribes , broadband internet access , further addressing missing and slain Indigenous women , and land put into trust for tribes .
Mr. Kahele , who became the second Native Hawaiian elected to Congress since statehood , has said he will champion Indigenous voices and push for things like housing assistance , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for the federal government to right the wrongs committed against Indigenous Hawaiians .
Hawaii was an independent kingdom until 1893 , when American businessmen backed by U.S. Marines overthrew Queen Liliuokalani .
The U.S. annexed Hawaii five years later , making it a territory .
It gained statehood in 1959 .
While the U.S. apologized in 1993 , Mr. Kahele said “ that was the first step in what needs to be a process of healing and reparations.
” Native Hawaiians are not among the more than 570 federally recognized Native American tribes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ designation .
They share common struggles in land loss , health care , and lack of economic prosperity , and have access to some of the same federal funding and preference for bidding on federal contracts as tribes .
Mr. Kahele said he ’ s already reached out to his Native colleagues in the House .
“ If we work together , we can achieve so much more , ” Mr. Kahele said .
“ And there are a lot out there who want us to fight , to compete against each other @ @ @ @ @ @ @ story was reported by The Associated Press .
AP writers Susan Montoya Bryan in Albuquerque , New Mexico , and Audrey McAvoy in Honolulu contributed to this report .

Internet access, health care, and basic necessities like running water and electricity within Indigenous communities have long been at the center of congressional debates. But until recently, Congress didn’t have many Indigenous members who were pushing for solutions and funding for those issues.
Hope is growing after the Native delegation in the United States House of Representatives expanded by two on Election Day: Yvette Herrell, who is Cherokee and prevailed in New Mexico’s 2nd Congressional District, and Kai Kahele, a Native Hawaiian who won that state’s 2nd District.
They will join four Native Americans who won reelection: Reps. Deb Haaland of New Mexico, who’s Laguna; Sharice Davids of Kansas, who’s Ho-Chunk; Markwayne Mullin of Oklahoma, who’s Cherokee; and Tom Cole of Oklahoma, who’s Chickasaw.
Of the six who prevailed, half are Democrats and half Republican – a divide Mr. Cole said would “absolutely be indispensable in passing anything the next two years.” The winners were among a dozen Indigenous major-party candidates running in top-of-the-ticket races.
“I always consider tribal affairs to be non-partisan,” Mr. Cole said Monday. “The tribal sovereignty and trust responsibility are not partisan issues. You either believe in those or you don’t.”
Representation means progress, scholars say, particularly for Indigenous children who will see their language and culture on display in Congress. It’s fueled by efforts to recruit Indigenous candidates and back them financially, get-out-the-vote efforts, and Native communities flexing their political muscle. About 100 Indigenous candidates were on general election ballots across the country, most seeking seats in state legislatures.
“It’s seeing people that look like us in Congress that is inspiring women, more than anything, to run,” said Traci Morris, executive director of the American Indian Policy Institute at Arizona State University, who’s Chickasaw. “That’s what I see – I see we all think we can do it now. And there was huge involvement.”
Still, Indigenous people remain underrepresented in Congress. The U.S. Senate has not had a Native American member since Ben Nighthorse Campbell of Colorado retired in 2005. He has Northern Cheyenne heritage. Democrat Paulette Jordan, who is Coeur d’Alene, lost to the incumbent for a U.S. Senate seat in Idaho this year.
But the House victories won’t necessarily translate to immediate power in Washington. Mr. Kahele said he imagines he’ll spend time learning about Indigenous issues outside of his native Hawaii and educating other Native and non-Natives in Congress.
And while it’s not easy to ignore Indigenous lawmakers if they’re sitting across the table, they often can be pigeonholed, said Richard Monette, who teaches federal Indian law at the University of Wisconsin-Madison.
“I think that, in the end, the scale tips toward being more good than bad,” said Mr. Monette, a former chairman of the Turtle Mountain Band of Chippewa. “That’s fair to say, but I will say this is complex.”
Ms. Herrell, for example, said she’s proud of her heritage but didn’t tout it in her bid to unseat Democrat Xochitl Torres Small in a complicated district that includes minority communities along the U.S.-Mexico border, tribes, ranchers, farmers, and oil and gas industry workers.
“I really prefer to call myself an American,” she told The Associated Press. “I’m a New Mexican, and it’s not about labels, it’s not about race. It’s about people and representing all of our values, all of our shared likes and even dislikes and coming together.”
The House formed the bipartisan Congressional Native American Caucus in 1997 that has dozens of non-Indigenous members and is now led by Mr. Cole and Ms. Haaland. Most notably, it worked to pass two bills to help address the epidemic of missing and slain Native American women. But the leadership team, which also includes Ms. Davids and Mr. Mullin, doesn’t always agree.
“We all make decisions based on two things: our life experiences and the way we were raised,” Mr. Mullin said in a statement to the AP. “With more Native Americans in Congress, we can make a bigger impact and better educate our colleagues about Native issues.”
Ms. Haaland and Mr. Cole said the focus in the upcoming session will be COVID-19’s impact on Native communities, chronic shortfalls in federal funding for tribes, broadband internet access, further addressing missing and slain Indigenous women, and land put into trust for tribes.
Mr. Kahele, who became the second Native Hawaiian elected to Congress since statehood, has said he will champion Indigenous voices and push for things like housing assistance, the protection of natural resources, and for the federal government to right the wrongs committed against Indigenous Hawaiians.
Hawaii was an independent kingdom until 1893, when American businessmen backed by U.S. Marines overthrew Queen Liliuokalani. The U.S. annexed Hawaii five years later, making it a territory. It gained statehood in 1959.
While the U.S. apologized in 1993, Mr. Kahele said “that was the first step in what needs to be a process of healing and reparations.”
Native Hawaiians are not among the more than 570 federally recognized Native American tribes, though they’ve sought the designation. They share common struggles in land loss, health care, and lack of economic prosperity, and have access to some of the same federal funding and preference for bidding on federal contracts as tribes.
Mr. Kahele said he’s already reached out to his Native colleagues in the House.
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“If we work together, we can achieve so much more,” Mr. Kahele said. “And there are a lot out there who want us to fight, to compete against each other for the same federal resources.”
This story was reported by The Associated Press. AP writers Susan Montoya Bryan in Albuquerque, New Mexico, and Audrey McAvoy in Honolulu contributed to this report.


csmonitor--2020-11-11--Love plus comfort, with batting in between

There ’ s a new baby in my orbit , and there ’ s no better way to celebrate than to make him a quilt , I say .
A quilt is love plus comfort , with batting in the middle .
But it has to be personal .
Teddy bears , bunnies , and lambs are too conventional .
I got to thinking : What ’ s my theme ?
What makes this baby special ?
The first thing that popped into mind , unfortunately , is that baby Jack showed up during a pandemic .
He was born @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the state was shut down .
The virus itself has the symmetrical flair of a disco ball , but that hardly seems appropriate for a child ’ s blanket .
When my mother and grandmother stitched quilts – by hand , and probably by the light of a North Dakota winter sun – they pieced them together out of old skirts and dresses .
Nothing was wasted .
I , on the other hand , buy brand-new fabric by the yard and slice it all up .
If I ’ m going @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sewing a quilt ( by machine , by the light of a television ) , I want it to be just so .
I had a look at my fabric stash and shook my head .
Nothing there would do .
But the retail fabric stores were all closed .
That ’ s coronavirus strike one .
I had a look online .
Where do I even start ?
Jack ’ s mama is a surgeon ; his papa is a fisherman .
A few keywords later , I ’ d located and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ stethoscopes , and blue with salmon .
This thing was happening .
I put together a simple shadow quilt .
Baby quilts aren ’ t large .
All I needed was material for the back .
Somewhere in my stash there had to be an appropriate remnant large enough .
The best candidate was a deep coral with white flamingos .
It was a stretch to think it fit any theme , but it was jolly and colorful , and I had plenty .
I set it on the table and unfolded it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Or it would have been , if I had not just cut out my face mask from it .
Right out of the middle , for some unknown reason .
Of course , other quilters piece together backings out of smaller bits all the time .
Nothing really needs to match , on the back side .
This pandemic has already tinkered with my need for control , so I might as well go for chaos .
I pulled out the stash again .
You wouldn ’ t think someone with six large @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a harmonious combination , but my efforts to buy just enough for a project and no more have apparently been wildly successful .
I have saved everything from the size of a postage stamp up to the size of a tissue .
This was going to require a new attitude .
What to do ?
Obviously , start with a log cabin block .
You begin with a red square , representing the hearth , the fire , the center of your life .
Then you add strips-of-fabric “ logs ” all around @ @ @ @ @ @ @ home in which to raise your babe .
My block is what they call “ wonky ” : The logs aren ’ t parallel .
Still , it holds together .
We ’ re all at home , but times aren ’ t normal .
I stitched together what I had , and what I had left over , until the comfort side of the love quilt was finished .
Love and babies in the time of coronavirus wasn ’ t what I ’ d started out to do , but here it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Your new life coincides with a new life for all of us .
We waste not , we love always , and we see things with new eyes .
With a new attitude .

There’s a new baby in my orbit, and there’s no better way to celebrate than to make him a quilt, I say. A quilt is love plus comfort, with batting in the middle. But it has to be personal. Teddy bears, bunnies, and lambs are too conventional. I got to thinking: What’s my theme? What makes this baby special?
The first thing that popped into mind, unfortunately, is that baby Jack showed up during a pandemic. He was born on Coronavirus Eve. The next day, the state was shut down. The virus itself has the symmetrical flair of a disco ball, but that hardly seems appropriate for a child’s blanket.
I kept thinking.
When my mother and grandmother stitched quilts – by hand, and probably by the light of a North Dakota winter sun – they pieced them together out of old skirts and dresses. Nothing was wasted.
I, on the other hand, buy brand-new fabric by the yard and slice it all up. If I’m going to go to all the trouble of sewing a quilt (by machine, by the light of a television), I want it to be just so. I had a look at my fabric stash and shook my head. Nothing there would do.
But the retail fabric stores were all closed. That’s coronavirus strike one. I had a look online. Where do I even start? Jack’s mama is a surgeon; his papa is a fisherman. A few keywords later, I’d located and ordered some compatible yardage: pink with stethoscopes, and blue with salmon. This thing was happening.
I put together a simple shadow quilt. Baby quilts aren’t large. All I needed was material for the back. Somewhere in my stash there had to be an appropriate remnant large enough.
The best candidate was a deep coral with white flamingos. It was a stretch to think it fit any theme, but it was jolly and colorful, and I had plenty. I set it on the table and unfolded it. It was easily enough fabric. Or it would have been, if I had not just cut out my face mask from it. Right out of the middle, for some unknown reason.
Coronavirus strike two.
Of course, other quilters piece together backings out of smaller bits all the time. Nothing really needs to match, on the back side.
This pandemic has already tinkered with my need for control, so I might as well go for chaos.
I pulled out the stash again.
You wouldn’t think someone with six large bins of fabric would have trouble finding a harmonious combination, but my efforts to buy just enough for a project and no more have apparently been wildly successful. I have saved everything from the size of a postage stamp up to the size of a tissue. This was going to require a new attitude.
What to do? Obviously, start with a log cabin block. You begin with a red square, representing the hearth, the fire, the center of your life. Then you add strips-of-fabric “logs” all around until you have a home. A home in which to raise your babe. My block is what they call “wonky”: The logs aren’t parallel. Still, it holds together. We’re all at home, but times aren’t normal.
I stitched together what I had, and what I had left over, until the comfort side of the love quilt was finished. Love and babies in the time of coronavirus wasn’t what I’d started out to do, but here it is.
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Stay warm, child. Your new life coincides with a new life for all of us. We waste not, we love always, and we see things with new eyes. With a new attitude.
Editor's note: An earlier version of the photo caption with this essay misstated the relationship between the essay author and the recipient of the baby blanket.


csmonitor--2020-11-11--Goodness gracious: ‘Fireball’ captures how meteors shape our planet

“ Fireball : Visitors from Darker Worlds ” is an awestruck movie about awe .
A globe-spanning documentary co-directed by Werner Herzog and University of Cambridge scientist Clive Oppenheimer , it ’ s about how extraterrestrial rocks have literally shaped not only the Earth but the culture and dreams of its inhabitants .
Herzog is one of the greatest living filmmakers , both for his dramas and documentaries .
“ Fireball ” is his second collaboration with Oppenheimer – the first was 2016 ’ s “ Into the Inferno , ” about volcanoes .
The two men complement each other @ @ @ @ @ @ @ film ’ s sinuously somnolent voice-over narration in his best Bavarian tones , has a mystic-rhapsodic temperament , while Oppenheimer , who , unlike Herzog , is often seen on camera , is more like a hard science David Attenborough type .
For a film about “ visitors from darker worlds , ” both bents are necessary .
The documentary , debuting on AppleTV+ on Nov. 13 , covers so many geographic locations – from the Yucatán Peninsula to Antarctica – that it also inadvertently functions as a kind of travel guide to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ filmmakers explore places where meteorites have impacted the Earth .
They seek out where the fragments have been preserved and studied , monitored , and venerated .
In the course of their journeys , they inevitably encounter a range of peoples whose passion for what has dropped from the sky is positively exhilarating .
We are taken to the Chicxulub Puerto village in Mexico , where some 66 million years ago the impact from an asteroid equivalent to thousands of millions of Hiroshima bombs is thought to have wiped out the planet ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Wolfe Creek Crater , the site of another ancient strike , is holy ground for Indigenous peoples .
The artist , Kate Darkie , who paints bright mythological panoramas , talks about how families visit the crater to feel close to their ancestors .
In Mecca , Saudia Arabia , Herzog was able to procure amateur footage of Islamic worshippers crowding inside the Grand Mosque to touch the sacred black stone that many assume is a chunk of meteorite and which the faithful believe was brought from heaven by the archangel Gabriel @ @ @ @ @ @ @ where a gigantic meteorite hit in 1492 , a scant seven days after Columbus arrived in the Caribbean .
It solidified the realm of Maximilian I because it was taken as a sign that God approved of his rule .
The Princeton physicist Paul Steinhardt explains , in tones of measured ecstasy , how he discovered after long investigation a five-fold symmetry in meteorological quasicrystals , a structure previously thought to be mathematically impossible .
In the Center for Meteorite Studies at Arizona State University , Oppenheimer is jitteringly allowed to handle some @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Herzog displays his trademark dour puckishness .
When an Indian scientist suggests that every element in our bodies was synthesized in the stars , his mock-indignant response quickly follows : “ I am not stardust .
I ’ m Bavarian !
” But he also thrills to the magnified stained glass window-like images of micrometeorites , which he calls “ the most beautiful sculptures on God ’ s planet.
” Perhaps the most excitable and wide-rangingly philosophical of those interviewed in “ Fireball ” is the planetary scientist Brother Guy Consolmagno , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Castel Gandolfo , the summer home of the pope .
Speaking of the miraculousness of the heavens , he says that “ to have the ability to understand these things is itself a miracle.
” He goes on : “ Looking at the stars gives you that sense of out-of-yourself that you need in order to be ready to encounter a god.
” There is much more in this film , including a scary , vaguely reassuring discussion with a scientist at NASA ’ s Planetary Defense Coordination Office whose job it is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ attacks .
( Talk about first responders ! )
There ’ s also a meeting with Norway ’ s leading jazz musician , Jon Larsen , whose passion for micrometeorites has led to important new discoveries .
Fingering some cosmic dust , which he equates with “ looking eternity in the eye , ” he exclaims , “ No human being has ever touched anything older !
” The documentary ends with a sacred tribal dance performed for the filmmakers and inhabitants of tiny Mer Island , located in an archipelago between Australia @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that we see are lit torches shooting embers , representing the souls of departed islanders , into the night sky .
It ’ s a transcendental finale to a transporting film .

“Fireball: Visitors From Darker Worlds” is an awestruck movie about awe. A globe-spanning documentary co-directed by Werner Herzog and University of Cambridge scientist Clive Oppenheimer, it’s about how extraterrestrial rocks have literally shaped not only the Earth but the culture and dreams of its inhabitants.
Herzog is one of the greatest living filmmakers, both for his dramas and documentaries. “Fireball” is his second collaboration with Oppenheimer – the first was 2016’s “Into the Inferno,” about volcanoes. The two men complement each other perfectly: Herzog, who provides the film’s sinuously somnolent voice-over narration in his best Bavarian tones, has a mystic-rhapsodic temperament, while Oppenheimer, who, unlike Herzog, is often seen on camera, is more like a hard science David Attenborough type. For a film about “visitors from darker worlds,” both bents are necessary.
The documentary, debuting on AppleTV+ on Nov. 13, covers so many geographic locations – from the Yucatán Peninsula to Antarctica – that it also inadvertently functions as a kind of travel guide to the planet’s diversity. The filmmakers explore places where meteorites have impacted the Earth. They seek out where the fragments have been preserved and studied, monitored, and venerated. In the course of their journeys, they inevitably encounter a range of peoples whose passion for what has dropped from the sky is positively exhilarating.
Why We Wrote This What is it about meteors? A documentarian and a scientist travel the globe encountering a range of people whose passion for what has dropped from the sky is, according to film critic Peter Rainer, “positively exhilarating.”
We are taken to the Chicxulub Puerto village in Mexico, where some 66 million years ago the impact from an asteroid equivalent to thousands of millions of Hiroshima bombs is thought to have wiped out the planet’s dinosaurs. In Western Australia, the Wolfe Creek Crater, the site of another ancient strike, is holy ground for Indigenous peoples. The artist, Kate Darkie, who paints bright mythological panoramas, talks about how families visit the crater to feel close to their ancestors.
In Mecca, Saudi Arabia, Herzog was able to procure amateur footage of Islamic worshippers crowding inside the Grand Mosque to touch the sacred black stone that many assume is a chunk of meteorite and which the faithful believe was brought from heaven by the archangel Gabriel.
Alsace, in France, is where a gigantic meteorite hit in 1492, a scant seven days after Columbus arrived in the Caribbean. It solidified the realm of Maximilian I because it was taken as a sign that God approved of his rule.
Courtesy of Apple View caption Hide caption In Western Australia, the Wolfe Creek Crater, site of an ancient asteroid strike, is holy ground for indigenous peoples.
The Princeton physicist Paul Steinhardt explains, in tones of measured ecstasy, how he discovered after long investigation a five-fold symmetry in meteorological quasicrystals, a structure previously thought to be mathematically impossible. In the Center for Meteorite Studies at Arizona State University, Oppenheimer is jitteringly allowed to handle some weighty rock samples.
Throughout this cavalcade, Herzog displays his trademark dour puckishness. When an Indian scientist suggests that every element in our bodies was synthesized in the stars, his mock-indignant response quickly follows: “I am not stardust. I’m Bavarian!” But he also thrills to the magnified stained glass window-like images of micrometeorites, which he calls “the most beautiful sculptures on God’s planet.”
Perhaps the most excitable and wide-rangingly philosophical of those interviewed in “Fireball” is the planetary scientist Brother Guy Consolmagno, who resides in the Palace of the Castel Gandolfo, the summer home of the pope. Speaking of the miraculousness of the heavens, he says that “to have the ability to understand these things is itself a miracle.” He goes on: “Looking at the stars gives you that sense of out-of-yourself that you need in order to be ready to encounter a god.”
Courtesy of Apple View caption Hide caption In "Fireball," planetary scientist Brother Guy Consolmagno, who resides in the summer home of the pope, speaks about the miraculousness of the heavens. He says that “to have the ability to understand these things is itself a miracle.”
There is much more in this film, including a scary, vaguely reassuring discussion with a scientist at NASA’s Planetary Defense Coordination Office whose job it is to defend the planet against incoming asteroid attacks. (Talk about first responders!) There’s also a meeting with Norway’s leading jazz musician, Jon Larsen, whose passion for micrometeorites has led to important new discoveries. Fingering some cosmic dust, which he equates with “looking eternity in the eye,” he exclaims, “No human being has ever touched anything older!”
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The documentary ends with a sacred tribal dance performed for the filmmakers and inhabitants of tiny Mer Island, located in an archipelago between Australia and New Guinea. The last image that we see are lit torches shooting embers, representing the souls of departed islanders, into the night sky. It’s a transcendental finale to a transporting film.
Peter Rainer is the Monitor’s film critic.


csmonitor--2020-11-12--Go ... Nimrods? The odd origins of team names.

I drove through the tiny town of Watersmeet , Michigan – “ home of the Nimrods , ” as a sign on the outskirts proudly proclaims .
As I went past , I wondered what prompted the town to call its high school athletes “ the idiots.
” I did some research and learned that while nimrod has indeed been an insulting slang word since the 1930s , it meant “ hunter ” long before .
In the Bible , Nimrod “ was a mighty hunter before the Lord ” ( Gen. 10:9 ; King James Version ) , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ name to “ skillful hunters ” of all sorts .
So Watersmeet is “ home of the mighty hunters.
” Many sports fans identify strongly with their favorite teams , and , according to author Paul Volponi , “ at the heart of every such connection is a team name.
” What do these names suggest about the teams , the sports they play , and the fans who follow them ?
Team names imply toughness and fighting spirit .
In the United States , the most popular names , in order , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from high school to the pros ) , Warriors , Wildcats , Panthers , Bulldogs , Tigers , and Eagles ( 1,603 teams ) .
Other fearsome entities have given their names to the Arizona Diamondbacks , the Tampa Bay Buccaneers , and the Chicago Bulls .
Other names refer to the history of a team ’ s home base .
The Celtics is a nod to the 22.8 % of metro Boston residents who have Irish heritage ; the Packers were sponsored by a Green Bay , Wisconsin , meat packing company @ @ @ @ @ @ @ aspersion on the character of Brooklynites , where the team , now in Los Angeles , was formed .
It was originally the Trolley Dodgers , because in the 1890s pedestrians regularly had to risk life and limb crossing the New York City borough ’ s chaotic trolley tracks .
Other names strike a literary note .
The Baltimore Ravens pay homage to hometown poet Edgar Allan Poe .
His poem “ The Raven ” inspired both the team ’ s name and , with the line “ the silken , sad , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” the color of its uniforms : purple .
Montrealers needed a name for their baseball team that was the same in English and French , so they chose the Expos , after the city ’ s 1967 International and Universal Exposition .
( The team transferred to Washington and is now the Nationals . )
At Georgetown University , fans have chanted “ Hoya Saxa !
” at games for more than a hundred years .
Students in the 19th century , who studied Greek and Latin , knew that hoya was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” and saxa Latin for “ stones.
” “ What stones !
” makes some sense as an admiring cheer – with slang connotations aside , it ’ s reportedly a nod to the school ’ s Stonewalls baseball team .
But the Georgetown teams became the Hoyas , which makes no sense at all .
Go Whats !

I drove through the tiny town of Watersmeet, Michigan – “home of the Nimrods,” as a sign on the outskirts proudly proclaims. As I went past, I wondered what prompted the town to call its high school athletes “the idiots.” I did some research and learned that while nimrod has indeed been an insulting slang word since the 1930s, it meant “hunter” long before. In the Bible, Nimrod “was a mighty hunter before the Lord” (Gen. 10:9; King James Version), and in the 17th century he lent his name to “skillful hunters” of all sorts. So Watersmeet is “home of the mighty hunters.”
Many sports fans identify strongly with their favorite teams, and, according to author Paul Volponi, “at the heart of every such connection is a team name.” What do these names suggest about the teams, the sports they play, and the fans who follow them?
Team names imply toughness and fighting spirit. In the United States, the most popular names, in order, are the Lions (742 teams, from high school to the pros), Warriors, Wildcats, Panthers, Bulldogs, Tigers, and Eagles (1,603 teams). Other fearsome entities have given their names to the Arizona Diamondbacks, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and the Chicago Bulls.
Other names refer to the history of a team’s home base. The Celtics is a nod to the 22.8% of metro Boston residents who have Irish heritage; the Packers were sponsored by a Green Bay, Wisconsin, meat packing company. The Dodgers is not a vague aspersion on the character of Brooklynites, where the team, now in Los Angeles, was formed. It was originally the Trolley Dodgers, because in the 1890s pedestrians regularly had to risk life and limb crossing the New York City borough’s chaotic trolley tracks.
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Other names strike a literary note. The Baltimore Ravens pay homage to hometown poet Edgar Allan Poe. His poem “The Raven” inspired both the team’s name and, with the line “the silken, sad, uncertain rustling of each purple curtain,” the color of its uniforms: purple. Montrealers needed a name for their baseball team that was the same in English and French, so they chose the Expos, after the city’s 1967 International and Universal Exposition. (The team transferred to Washington and is now the Nationals.)
At Georgetown University, fans have chanted “Hoya Saxa!” at games for more than a hundred years. Students in the 19th century, who studied Greek and Latin, knew that hoya was a Greek word for “what,” and saxa Latin for “stones.” “What stones!” makes some sense as an admiring cheer – with slang connotations aside, it’s reportedly a nod to the school’s Stonewalls baseball team. But the Georgetown teams became the Hoyas, which makes no sense at all. Go Whats!


csmonitor--2020-11-12--Why vision of Ethiopian unity is descending into warfare

“ To do away with ethnic identity is a magic potion for them , ” says one Ethiopian observer , requesting anonymity .
“ If they redo the constitution and outlaw the expression of ethnicity in political form , Ethiopia will return as an empire.
” Observers say Mr. Abiy and his allies see the federal system as weakening a nation-state they believe is on its way back to its rightful place as a major player in Africa and the world .
Now , what began as an ambitious campaign to unite and transform the country has escalated into a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ region .
It is all written in plain language , as if introducing members of Ethiopia ’ s many ethnic groups to one another .
Yet this celebration of Ethiopia ’ s multicultural heritage is woven into Mr. Abiy ’ s narrative of one nation-state .
In Addis Ababa , a museum in Unity Park stands as a symbol of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed ’ s narrative of a modern , united Ethiopia .
It includes displays showcasing Indigenous rituals and the three Abrahamic religions ’ long history in the country .
Others @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Sheba and the shaping of modern Ethiopia by the kings , juntas , and technocrats that ruled in the 20th and 21st centuries .
In mere days , reformist Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has gone from an internationally acclaimed Nobel Prize-winning peacemaker to a war-leader .
What began as an ambitious campaign to unite and transform the country into a leading African power – by upending a federal system based on regional ethnic autonomy – has escalated from a struggle over national identity to what is bordering on a civil war in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ With reported casualties mounting , the United Nations has warned that the fighting could displace millions .
On one side of the conflict is the federal government led by reformist Mr. Abiy , who came to power with promises of a bold modernization program and was lauded by the international community for finalizing a peace deal with Eritrea .
On the other is the Tigray People ’ s Liberation Front ( TPLF ) , a former leading political player that crafted Ethiopia ’ s federal constitution and the multi-cultural ethnic governing coalition that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for centralization .
Mr. Abiy announced airstrikes and a ground offensive on the Tigray region this week .
But he insists that he is not at war , describing the military offensive as a “ law enforcement operation ” to bring to justice a “ belligerent clique ” within Tigrayan leadership .
At his behest , the government converted former palace grounds of Emperor Menelik II , who forged modern Ethiopia through military conquest , into a public park and museum highlighting Ethiopia ’ s recent history and its different ethnic , religious @ @ @ @ @ @ @ museum stand cultural displays representing the different ethno-national groups and regions such as the Sidama , the Oromo ( Ethiopia ’ s largest group ) , the Amhara , the Omo , Somalis , and the Tigrayans , a mostly Christian Orthodox group who make up about 6 % of the population but have played an outsized role in politics and the military .
The museum includes displays written in Amharic and English showcasing Indigenous rituals and the three Abrahamic religions ’ long history in the country .
Others detail the legend of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of modern Ethiopia by the various kings , emperors , juntas , and technocrats that ruled the country in the 20th and 21st centuries .
It is all written in plain language , as if introducing Ethiopians to one another .
Yet this celebration of Ethiopia ’ s multicultural heritage is woven into Mr. Abiy ’ s narrative of one nation-state and one people whose sum is greater than the individual parts , an inevitable shared destiny as a great empire .
Triggering the conflict in the Tigray region was the TPLF ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ elections in September despite the federal government ’ s constitutionally controversial decision to suspend national and local elections until 2021 .
The showdown escalated into clashes between the TPLF and federal forces stationed in the region this week .
The TPLF and other ethnic groups had hoped the elections would serve as a rebuke to Mr. Abiy ’ s centralized vision for Ethiopia , the second-most populous nation in Africa .
They fear the young prime minister , now without an elected mandate and having suppressed or coopted other regional political movements , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the country toward a presidential system and reduce local groups ’ rights and autonomy .
“ If the election had taken place it would have been a referendum on the soul of Ethiopia .
Is it one nation-state as one side believes , or is it a multicultural society within a federal arrangement ?
” says one Ethiopian observer who preferred to remain unnamed due to a wartime crackdown on media .
“ I think what is ultimately playing out in this war is the result of two conflicting and contrasting views of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Allo , a senior lecturer in law at Britain ’ s Keele University .
“ On the one hand you have Abiy ’ s more unitary , centralized view of the future , where the center becomes the source of authority .
On the other you have sub-national governments that demand greater autonomy as secured by the constitution.
” In 1991 Tigrayan leadership overthrew Ethiopia ’ s Marxist military junta and formed a multicultural governing coalition and the federal constitution , granting autonomy and the right to determination to nine ethno-geographic regions .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ multi-ethnic coalition by Mr. Abiy , a member of the Oromo group who became prime minister in April 2018 .
In the months leading up to the conflict , Mr. Abiy increasingly accused the TPLF , the “ old guard , ” of frustrating his reforms , harboring fugitives , and even inciting inter-ethnic strife across in Ethiopia to undermine his rule .
“ Their objective was clear – to make the country ungovernable by instigating clashes along ethnic and religious lines to sow division and discord so that the democratic transition will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ said this week .
Observers believe Mr. Abiy sees the conflict as a chance to settle once and for all the struggle between an ethnic federation and a strong central government .
“ The TPLF are presented by Abiy ’ s supporters as anti-reform , as are other ethno-nationalist movements that are at odds with the federal government , ” says William Davison , senior Ethiopia analyst for International Crisis Group .
“ It is evident that some of those who support the intervention against the TPLF see it as a chance to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ constitutional order and then radically remake it.
” “ If Abiy wins , the implication is clear , ” says Keele University ’ s Mr. Allo .
“ It will be the end of the vision for a decentralized federal Ethiopia.
” In his two short years in power , Mr. Abiy has met reform benchmarks such as the release of political prisoners , boosting women ’ s representation in government , and liberalizing the economy .
Yet in each of his initiatives , he has also worked to present a united Ethiopia @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is represented and included , each a component of a greater whole , whose interests are subservient to that of the nation .
It is a tall task for a nation that was formed by the conquering and merging of kingdoms and nation-states in the late 19th and early 20th centuries .
Mr. Abiy ’ s national narrative is at odds with the various ethno-national groups demanding greater autonomy and rights across the country , and the multicultural federalist constitution in place that grants these groups autonomy and even the right to secede @ @ @ @ @ @ @ shared history or a common past – we all have competing narratives , ” Mr. Allo says .
“ Federalist forces argue that instead of simply forging ahead like the government wishes , let ’ s construct a new narrative and shared memory for the future.
” According to observers , Mr. Abiy and his allies see the federalist system as weakening a nation-state they believe is on its way back to its rightful place a major player in Africa and the world .
“ They think the expression of ethnicity is the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” said one Ethiopian observer , requesting anonymity .
“ To do away with ethnic identity is a magic potion for them .
If they redo the constitution and outlaw the expression of ethnicity in political form , Ethiopia will return as an empire.
” The TFLP , removed from federal government and confined to the Tigray region , have since emerged as the staunchest defender of regional rights and the status quo .
The military confrontation ’ s fallout could be vast .
The TFLP have an estimated 200,000 fighters , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ stockpile of Ethiopia ’ s military equipment and weapons , the third-largest arsenal in all of Africa .
Mr. Abiy has rejected mediation attempts by the U.N. , Kenya , and others .
Hundreds of casualties have been reported despite a media and telecommunications blackout in Tigray .
Already , several thousand refugees have been driven into Sudan ; the U.N. warns 9 million could be displaced .
Others fear the greatest casualty will be the patchwork social fabric Mr. Abiy has gone at great lengths to present as united .
Tensions have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , who hold territorial grievances , with Amhara militias reportedly mobilizing on their regional border with Tigray .
Other ethnic groups may seize the crisis as an opportunity to rise up , including the Oromo , who have grown increasingly disillusioned with Mr. Abiy .
Dozens of Ethiopians were killed this July in protests and clashes over the assassination of an Oromo protest musician .
Mr. Abiy continues to push his message of unity and reconciliation – even as his war jeopardizes it .
“ I would like to reiterate that no Tigrayan @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of identity-based illegal acts , ” Mr. Abiy said in a Twitter post Sunday .
“ And this responsibility lies on all Ethiopians .
”

“To do away with ethnic identity is a magic potion for them,” says one Ethiopian observer, requesting anonymity. “If they redo the constitution and outlaw the expression of ethnicity in political form, Ethiopia will return as an empire.”
Observers say Mr. Abiy and his allies see the federal system as weakening a nation-state they believe is on its way back to its rightful place as a major player in Africa and the world.
Now, what began as an ambitious campaign to unite and transform the country has escalated into a virtual civil war in the northern Tigray region.
As slogans, national unity and ethnic autonomy both sound compelling. Even uplifting. But in Ethiopia, a young yet ancient nation of many peoples, the evolution of a new identity is bringing them into conflict.
It is all written in plain language, as if introducing members of Ethiopia’s many ethnic groups to one another. Yet this celebration of Ethiopia’s multicultural heritage is woven into Mr. Abiy’s narrative of one nation-state.
In Addis Ababa, a museum in Unity Park stands as a symbol of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s narrative of a modern, united Ethiopia. It includes displays showcasing Indigenous rituals and the three Abrahamic religions’ long history in the country. Others detail the legend of the Queen of Sheba and the shaping of modern Ethiopia by the kings, juntas, and technocrats that ruled in the 20th and 21st centuries.
In mere days, reformist Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has gone from an internationally acclaimed Nobel Prize-winning peacemaker to a war-leader.
What began as an ambitious campaign to unite and transform the country into a leading African power – by upending a federal system based on regional ethnic autonomy – has escalated from a struggle over national identity to what is bordering on a civil war in Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region.
With reported casualties mounting, the United Nations has warned that the fighting could displace millions.
Why We Wrote This As slogans, national unity and ethnic autonomy both sound compelling. Even uplifting. But in Ethiopia, a young yet ancient nation of many peoples, the evolution of a new identity is bringing them into conflict.
On one side of the conflict is the federal government led by reformist Mr. Abiy, who came to power with promises of a bold modernization program and was lauded by the international community for finalizing a peace deal with Eritrea.
On the other is the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), a former leading political player that crafted Ethiopia’s federal constitution and the multi-cultural ethnic governing coalition that Mr. Abiy is replacing in his push for centralization.
Mr. Abiy announced airstrikes and a ground offensive on the Tigray region this week. But he insists that he is not at war, describing the military offensive as a “law enforcement operation” to bring to justice a “belligerent clique” within Tigrayan leadership.
Unity Park
A symbol of Mr. Abiy’s national narrative stands in Addis Ababa: Unity Park.
At his behest, the government converted former palace grounds of Emperor Menelik II, who forged modern Ethiopia through military conquest, into a public park and museum highlighting Ethiopia’s recent history and its different ethnic, religious, and linguistic groups.
Outside the museum stand cultural displays representing the different ethno-national groups and regions such as the Sidama, the Oromo (Ethiopia’s largest group), the Amhara, the Omo, Somalis, and the Tigrayans, a mostly Christian Orthodox group who make up about 6% of the population but have played an outsized role in politics and the military.
The museum includes displays written in Amharic and English showcasing Indigenous rituals and the three Abrahamic religions’ long history in the country. Others detail the legend of the Queen of Sheba and the shaping of modern Ethiopia by the various kings, emperors, juntas, and technocrats that ruled the country in the 20th and 21st centuries.
It is all written in plain language, as if introducing Ethiopians to one another.
Yet this celebration of Ethiopia’s multicultural heritage is woven into Mr. Abiy’s narrative of one nation-state and one people whose sum is greater than the individual parts, an inevitable shared destiny as a great empire.
Tigray conflict
Triggering the conflict in the Tigray region was the TPLF’s insistence on proceeding with scheduled regional elections in September despite the federal government’s constitutionally controversial decision to suspend national and local elections until 2021. The showdown escalated into clashes between the TPLF and federal forces stationed in the region this week.
The TPLF and other ethnic groups had hoped the elections would serve as a rebuke to Mr. Abiy’s centralized vision for Ethiopia, the second-most populous nation in Africa.
Tiksa Negeri/Reuters View caption Hide caption Members of Amhara region militias head to face the Tigray People's Liberation Front, in Sanja, Amhara region, near the border with Tigray, Ethiopia, Nov. 9, 2020.
They fear the young prime minister, now without an elected mandate and having suppressed or coopted other regional political movements, will push through constitutional amendments that tilt the country toward a presidential system and reduce local groups’ rights and autonomy.
“If the election had taken place it would have been a referendum on the soul of Ethiopia. Is it one nation-state as one side believes, or is it a multicultural society within a federal arrangement?” says one Ethiopian observer who preferred to remain unnamed due to a wartime crackdown on media.
“I think what is ultimately playing out in this war is the result of two conflicting and contrasting views of the Ethiopian state,” says Awol Allo, a senior lecturer in law at Britain’s Keele University.
“On the one hand you have Abiy’s more unitary, centralized view of the future, where the center becomes the source of authority. On the other you have sub-national governments that demand greater autonomy as secured by the constitution.”
In 1991 Tigrayan leadership overthrew Ethiopia’s Marxist military junta and formed a multicultural governing coalition and the federal constitution, granting autonomy and the right to determination to nine ethno-geographic regions.
They object to the dissolution of the multi-ethnic coalition by Mr. Abiy, a member of the Oromo group who became prime minister in April 2018.
In the months leading up to the conflict, Mr. Abiy increasingly accused the TPLF, the “old guard,” of frustrating his reforms, harboring fugitives, and even inciting inter-ethnic strife across in Ethiopia to undermine his rule.
“Their objective was clear – to make the country ungovernable by instigating clashes along ethnic and religious lines to sow division and discord so that the democratic transition will lose its momentum,” Mr. Abiy said this week.
Observers believe Mr. Abiy sees the conflict as a chance to settle once and for all the struggle between an ethnic federation and a strong central government.
“The TPLF are presented by Abiy’s supporters as anti-reform, as are other ethno-nationalist movements that are at odds with the federal government,” says William Davison, senior Ethiopia analyst for International Crisis Group.
“It is evident that some of those who support the intervention against the TPLF see it as a chance to remove the prime architect of the ethno-nationalist constitutional order and then radically remake it.”
“If Abiy wins, the implication is clear,” says Keele University’s Mr. Allo. “It will be the end of the vision for a decentralized federal Ethiopia.”
National unity
In his two short years in power, Mr. Abiy has met reform benchmarks such as the release of political prisoners, boosting women’s representation in government, and liberalizing the economy.
Yet in each of his initiatives, he has also worked to present a united Ethiopia, one in which every ethno-linguistic group is represented and included, each a component of a greater whole, whose interests are subservient to that of the nation.
Tiksa Negeri/AP/File View caption Hide caption Ethiopia's Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed waits for the arrival of European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen before their meeting in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, Dec. 7, 2019.
It is a tall task for a nation that was formed by the conquering and merging of kingdoms and nation-states in the late 19th and early 20th centuries.
Mr. Abiy’s national narrative is at odds with the various ethno-national groups demanding greater autonomy and rights across the country, and the multicultural federalist constitution in place that grants these groups autonomy and even the right to secede.
“We do not have a shared history or a common past – we all have competing narratives,” Mr. Allo says. “Federalist forces argue that instead of simply forging ahead like the government wishes, let’s construct a new narrative and shared memory for the future.”
According to observers, Mr. Abiy and his allies see the federalist system as weakening a nation-state they believe is on its way back to its rightful place a major player in Africa and the world.
“They think the expression of ethnicity is the source of all evil in Ethiopia,” said one Ethiopian observer, requesting anonymity.
“To do away with ethnic identity is a magic potion for them. If they redo the constitution and outlaw the expression of ethnicity in political form, Ethiopia will return as an empire.”
The TPLF, removed from federal government and confined to the Tigray region, have since emerged as the staunchest defender of regional rights and the status quo.
Fallout
The military confrontation’s fallout could be vast. The TPLF have an estimated 200,000 fighters, and their territory is home to the largest stockpile of Ethiopia’s military equipment and weapons, the third-largest arsenal in all of Africa.
Mr. Abiy has rejected mediation attempts by the U.N., Kenya, and others.
Hundreds of casualties have been reported despite a media and telecommunications blackout in Tigray. Already, several thousand refugees have been driven into Sudan; the U.N. warns 9 million could be displaced.
Others fear the greatest casualty will be the patchwork social fabric Mr. Abiy has gone at great lengths to present as united.
Tensions have flared between Tigrayans and the Amhara people, who hold territorial grievances, with Amhara militias reportedly mobilizing on their regional border with Tigray.
Other ethnic groups may seize the crisis as an opportunity to rise up, including the Oromo, who have grown increasingly disillusioned with Mr. Abiy. Dozens of Ethiopians were killed this July in protests and clashes over the assassination of an Oromo protest musician.
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Mr. Abiy continues to push his message of unity and reconciliation – even as his war jeopardizes it.
“I would like to reiterate that no Tigrayan brother or sister should be a victim of identity-based illegal acts,” Mr. Abiy said in a Twitter post Sunday. “And this responsibility lies on all Ethiopians.”