csmonitor--2020-10-07--Pandemic forces US and UK movie theater chain to stay shut

In the latest blow to the beleaguered film industry , the second-largest movie theater chain in the United States is temporarily shuttering its locations Thursday due to a lack of blockbusters on the calendar and major domestic markets like New York remaining closed .
Cineworld Group Plc said Monday that it would close 536 Regal cinemas in the U.S. and 127 Cineworld and Picturehouse venues in the U.K. this week , affecting some 45,000 employees .
`` This is not a decision we made lightly , '' said Cineworld CEO Mooky Greidinger .
In the past few days , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ big film in the James Bond pic `` No Time to Die . ''
It is at least partly due to the fact that one of the country 's biggest markets , New York , has not committed to a plan or a date for reopening cinemas in the state .
Cineworld has high debts and is , like the wider industry , struggling with the effects of the pandemic .
The absence of the biggest North American markets and a consistent , solid release schedule from Hollywood studios have been devastating to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the fact that we needed to be closed until we saw that similar activities to us started to open , '' Mr. Greidinger said , citing indoor dining .
`` We can not be in a situation where we lose more cash when we are open than we lose when we are closed . ''
Last week groups representing theater owners , movie studios and directors issued a plea to U.S. lawmakers to provide relief to ailing movie theaters .
The letter , signed by the likes of Steven Spielberg , Christopher Nolan @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and Martin Scorsese , said that if the status quo continues , nearly 70 % of small to mid-size movie theaters could be forced to close permanently .
Efforts to slow the spread of the virus resulted in closure of most cinemas for nearly six months .
Many started tentatively reopening in late August , anticipating the release of money-making blockbusters , like Nolan 's `` Tenet , '' the Bond pic `` No Time to Die , '' and Marvel 's `` Black Widow . ''
Exhibitors also poured resources into enhanced @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , social distanced seating , cashless transactions , and staggered showtimes .
But ticket sales for Warner Bros. ' `` Tenet , '' the first major film out of the gates , were not as strong in the U.S. as hoped , likely a combination of audience reluctance to return to theaters and the effects of big markets like New York and Los Angeles remaining closed .
While some analysts stress that films need to play the `` long game '' at the box office in this current environment , studios responded by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ been set for the fall and winter .
Some merely moved back 2020 openings as late as possible , like `` Death on the Nile '' ( Dec. 18 ) and `` Wonder Woman 1984 , '' which is now set for Christmas .
But others abandoned the year entirely , including Marvel 's `` Black Widow , '' Spielberg 's `` West Side Story , '' and Universal 's `` Candyman , '' all of which were pushed to 2021 in recent weeks .
Although there are a handful of major films @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 's `` Soul , '' as well as a consistent calendar of independents and art house films , Friday 's announcement that `` No Time To Die '' was being delayed to 2021 came as a final blow .
Without the big releases , Cineworld said it ca n't give customers `` the breadth of strong commercial films necessary for them to consider coming back to theaters against the backdrop of COVID-19 . ''
`` We did everything in our power to support safe and sustainable reopenings in all of our markets – @ @ @ @ @ @ @ local health and safety guidelines in our theaters and working constructively with regulators and industry bodies to restore public confidence in our industry , '' said Mr. Greidinger .
`` We can not be in the situation where every week we are getting another delay and another delay . ''
Cineworld shares fell as low as 15.64 pounds in London and were down 31 % at 27.41 in morning trading .
The industry had been rocked by the pandemic – first being closed for months and then operating at a fraction of previous @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at CMC Markets .
Cineworld had also been highly leveraged , having largely funded its acquisition of Regal Entertainment in 2018 through debt .
`` Today the company confirmed they will be assessing their liquidity options , and it plans to update the market on the resumption of business in due course , '' he said .
`` It seems that Cineworld is hunkering down and they are holding onto their current liquidity position , with the view to probably having a reduced service when they re-open . ''
Mr. Greidinger does n't @ @ @ @ @ @ @ time there was a solid release schedule and he believed that New York would have eased restrictions sooner .
Now there is , `` Not much to do but to wait , '' Mr. Greidinger said .
And he hopes New York Gov .
Andrew Cuomo will give `` the greenlight soon . ''
The business , he said , needs a set blockbuster calendar extending six to eight weeks in the future in order to reopen .
Mr. Greidinger hopes that that might be settled before Christmas , in time for `` @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will be the happiest man to open the cinemas for 'Wonder Woman , '' he said .
`` But we will also need to look beyond 'Wonder Woman ' to January and February . ''
This story was reported by The Associated Press .
Editor ’ s note : As a public service , the Monitor has removed the paywall for all our coronavirus coverage .
It ’ s free .

In the latest blow to the beleaguered film industry, the second-largest movie theater chain in the United States is temporarily shuttering its locations Thursday due to a lack of blockbusters on the calendar and major domestic markets like New York remaining closed.
Cineworld Group Plc said Monday that it would close 536 Regal cinemas in the U.S. and 127 Cineworld and Picturehouse venues in the U.K. this week, affecting some 45,000 employees.
"This is not a decision we made lightly," said Cineworld CEO Mooky Greidinger.
In the past few days, the already decimated 2020 release calendar lost another big film in the James Bond pic "No Time to Die." It is at least partly due to the fact that one of the country's biggest markets, New York, has not committed to a plan or a date for reopening cinemas in the state.
Cineworld has high debts and is, like the wider industry, struggling with the effects of the pandemic. The absence of the biggest North American markets and a consistent, solid release schedule from Hollywood studios have been devastating to their business.
"We never argued the fact that we needed to be closed until we saw that similar activities to us started to open," Mr. Greidinger said, citing indoor dining. "We cannot be in a situation where we lose more cash when we are open than we lose when we are closed."
Last week groups representing theater owners, movie studios and directors issued a plea to U.S. lawmakers to provide relief to ailing movie theaters. The letter, signed by the likes of Steven Spielberg, Christopher Nolan, Patty Jenkins, Clint Eastwood, and Martin Scorsese, said that if the status quo continues, nearly 70% of small to mid-size movie theaters could be forced to close permanently.
Efforts to slow the spread of the virus resulted in closure of most cinemas for nearly six months. Many started tentatively reopening in late August, anticipating the release of money-making blockbusters, like Nolan's "Tenet," the Bond pic "No Time to Die," and Marvel's "Black Widow." Exhibitors also poured resources into enhanced safety protocols, including limited capacity theaters, social distanced seating, cashless transactions, and staggered showtimes.
But ticket sales for Warner Bros.' "Tenet," the first major film out of the gates, were not as strong in the U.S. as hoped, likely a combination of audience reluctance to return to theaters and the effects of big markets like New York and Los Angeles remaining closed.
While some analysts stress that films need to play the "long game" at the box office in this current environment, studios responded by delaying most other major films that had been set for the fall and winter.
Some merely moved back 2020 openings as late as possible, like "Death on the Nile" (Dec. 18) and "Wonder Woman 1984," which is now set for Christmas.
But others abandoned the year entirely, including Marvel's "Black Widow," Spielberg's "West Side Story," and Universal's "Candyman," all of which were pushed to 2021 in recent weeks.
Although there are a handful of major films still set for 2020, like Pixar's "Soul," as well as a consistent calendar of independents and art house films, Friday's announcement that "No Time To Die" was being delayed to 2021 came as a final blow.
Without the big releases, Cineworld said it can't give customers "the breadth of strong commercial films necessary for them to consider coming back to theaters against the backdrop of COVID-19."
"We did everything in our power to support safe and sustainable reopenings in all of our markets – including meeting, and often exceeding, local health and safety guidelines in our theaters and working constructively with regulators and industry bodies to restore public confidence in our industry," said Mr. Greidinger. "We cannot be in the situation where every week we are getting another delay and another delay."
Cineworld shares fell as low as 15.64 pounds in London and were down 31% at 27.41 in morning trading.
The industry had been rocked by the pandemic – first being closed for months and then operating at a fraction of previous capacity, said David Madden, analyst at CMC Markets. Cineworld had also been highly leveraged, having largely funded its acquisition of Regal Entertainment in 2018 through debt.
"Today the company confirmed they will be assessing their liquidity options, and it plans to update the market on the resumption of business in due course,'' he said. "It seems that Cineworld is hunkering down and they are holding onto their current liquidity position, with the view to probably having a reduced service when they re-open.''
Mr. Greidinger doesn't regret reopening in August – at the time there was a solid release schedule and he believed that New York would have eased restrictions sooner.
Now there is, "Not much to do but to wait," Mr. Greidinger said. And he hopes New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo will give "the greenlight soon."
The business, he said, needs a set blockbuster calendar extending six to eight weeks in the future in order to reopen. Mr. Greidinger hopes that that might be settled before Christmas, in time for "Wonder Woman 1984."
"I will be the happiest man to open the cinemas for 'Wonder Woman," he said. "But we will also need to look beyond 'Wonder Woman' to January and February."
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This story was reported by The Associated Press.
Editor’s note: As a public service, the Monitor has removed the paywall for all our coronavirus coverage. It’s free.


csmonitor--2020-10-08--You can have many ‘friends,’ but ‘chums’ are rare

I have 194 friends , according to Facebook .
That ’ s not many , by Facebook standards .
In the United States , users have an average of 338 , according to the most recent statistics , and the platform caps the number at 5,000 .
Few of my online friends are friends in real life , though , which dovetails with the research of evolutionary psychologist Robin Dunbar .
Whether a person has 50 Facebook friends or 5,000 , Dr. Dunbar has found that “ only 15 [ count ] as actual friends and only five as close @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” people with the touch of a key , even if you ’ ve never met in person .
Etymologically speaking , friendship is much more intense .
Friend is an Old English word , derived ultimately from the Proto-Indo-European root pri- , meaning “ to love.
” In OE , friend ( someone you love ) was the opposite of fiend ( an enemy , someone you hate ) .
Many friend words arose from the importance of shared meals .
Companion , first used in the 14th century , is literally @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bread , ” as it comes from the Latin com ( with ) plus panis ( bread ) .
Mate , another 14th-century term , originally referred to a person sitting next to you at dinner , sharing the main course , meat .
Now mate is used more generally to mean “ friend ” ( especially in British slang ) or “ one of a pair ” ( e.g.
, the bird ’ s mate brings food ) .
Shared lodging also gave rise to several words .
In the 17th century @ @ @ @ @ @ @ campus were called chums , short for “ chamberfellows ” – what we ’ d call roommates .
While roommate does not imply anything about how the space-sharers get along , chums are close friends , though the word itself now has an old-fashioned ring to it .
Analogously , soldiers who bunked in the same tent were comrades , from the Latin camera ( “ chamber ” ) .
Bedfellow marked perhaps the closest kind of friendship .
In the Middle Ages and Renaissance , beds were scarce , and most people @ @ @ @ @ @ @ necessity .
Because of the intimacy of lying next to someone in the dark , bedfellows often became what we ’ d call “ best friends ” today .
“ Bedfellow ” was even a socially recognized category , akin to “ partner.
” One family recorded a visit from “ my Lord of St John ’ s bedfellow , ” and the Countess of Oxford complained that a social climber had wormed his way into her son ’ s affections : “ John Hunt has impudently presumed to be his bedfellow.
” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ picture of friendship as loving and intense , conducted elbow-to-elbow and face-to-face – pretty much the opposite of what happens on Facebook .
While social networks can be valuable tools for communicating with people we love but rarely get to see , I ’ d still rather visit with a couple of my chums .

I have 194 friends, according to Facebook. That’s not many, by Facebook standards. In the United States, users have an average of 338, according to the most recent statistics, and the platform caps the number at 5,000. Few of my online friends are friends in real life, though, which dovetails with the research of evolutionary psychologist Robin Dunbar. Whether a person has 50 Facebook friends or 5,000, Dr. Dunbar has found that “only 15 [count] as actual friends and only five as close friends.” Today you can “friend” people with the touch of a key, even if you’ve never met in person.
Etymologically speaking, friendship is much more intense. Friend is an Old English word, derived ultimately from the Proto-Indo-European root pri-, meaning “to love.” In OE, friend (someone you love) was the opposite of fiend (an enemy, someone you hate).
Many friend words arose from the importance of shared meals. Companion, first used in the 14th century, is literally “a person with whom you eat bread,” as it comes from the Latin com (with) plus panis (bread). Mate, another 14th-century term, originally referred to a person sitting next to you at dinner, sharing the main course, meat. Now mate is used more generally to mean “friend” (especially in British slang) or “one of a pair” (e.g., the bird’s mate brings food).
Shared lodging also gave rise to several words. In the 17th century, university students who lived together on campus were called chums, short for “chamberfellows” – what we’d call roommates. While roommate does not imply anything about how the space-sharers get along, chums are close friends, though the word itself now has an old-fashioned ring to it. Analogously, soldiers who bunked in the same tent were comrades, from the Latin camera (“chamber”).
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empower and uplift daily. By signing up, you agree to our Privacy Policy Already a subscriber? Log in to hide ads.
Bedfellow marked perhaps the closest kind of friendship. In the Middle Ages and Renaissance, beds were scarce, and most people slept next to someone else out of necessity. Because of the intimacy of lying next to someone in the dark, bedfellows often became what we’d call “best friends” today. “Bedfellow” was even a socially recognized category, akin to “partner.” One family recorded a visit from “my Lord of St John’s bedfellow,” and the Countess of Oxford complained that a social climber had wormed his way into her son’s affections: “John Hunt has impudently presumed to be his bedfellow.”
The history of these words draws a picture of friendship as loving and intense, conducted elbow-to-elbow and face-to-face – pretty much the opposite of what happens on Facebook. While social networks can be valuable tools for communicating with people we love but rarely get to see, I’d still rather visit with a couple of my chums.


csmonitor--2020-10-08--Arizona used to be a conservative stronghold. Now it may go blue.

“ Arizona is a rapidly changing state , ” says Jessica Taylor of the Cook Political Report .
“ Maricopa County alone is about 60 % of the vote , and that ’ s a rapidly diversifying , well-educated area.
” Maricopa , combined with Tucson ’ s Pima County , now accounts for more than three-quarters of Arizona votes .
The urban tilt could propel Democrats to a stronger showing in Arizona than in Wisconsin , Michigan , or Pennsylvania , all of which have larger concentrations of rural voters .
In many ways , Yasser Sanchez embodies the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ immigration lawyer originally from Mexico , he recently quit the GOP , saying he ’ s “ fed up ” with the president over immigration and values .
Mr. Sanchez lives in Maricopa County – a longtime Republican stronghold that encompasses Phoenix and its fast-growing suburbs .
It ’ s no exaggeration to say that the election outcome here could determine control of the White House as well as the Senate .
After going for Donald Trump by 3.5 percentage points in 2016 , Arizona has been rapidly shifting from red to purple @ @ @ @ @ @ @ On Thursday , former Vice President Joe Biden and running mate Sen. Kamala Harris were headed to Arizona , for their first joint campaign appearance since the convention .
Vice President Mike Pence was also visiting the state , for the fourth time .
Two years ago , Yasser Sanchez was all in for Martha McSally .
An influential leader in the Latino community , he took the Republican Senate candidate around to Spanish-language radio , television , and newspapers .
He put up signs for her .
Now , he ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Senator McSally , Mr. Sanchez explains , is in lockstep with President Donald Trump – whom he vigorously opposes .
“ I thought she could be the next maverick from Arizona , ” says Mr. Sanchez , about the first female fighter pilot in the United States to fly and lead a squadron in combat .
But “ she will do whatever the party tells her , because if not , it will make her life impossible .
She holds tight to the president.
” It ’ s no exaggeration to say that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ once conservative stronghold could determine control of the White House and the Senate , as well as a state legislature that ’ s been dominated by Republicans for more than half a century .
With just weeks to go , both parties are pouring resources into a state that went for Mr. Trump by 3.5 percentage points in 2016 , but has been rapidly shifting from red to purple – and now , maybe blue .
On Thursday , former Vice President Joe Biden and running mate Sen. Kamala Harris were expected in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ appearance since the convention .
Vice President Mike Pence was also scheduled to visit , for the fourth time .
President Trump was supposed to hold two Arizona rallies this week , but those were put off after his COVID-19 diagnosis .
In many ways , Mr. Sanchez embodies Arizona ’ s changing electorate .
An immigration lawyer and family man , he ’ s originally from Mexico – and is part of a growing Latino population that is becoming a larger share of the vote here and leans heavily Democratic .
Mr. @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , saying he ’ s “ fed up ” with the president ’ s values and his attacks on immigrants , among other reasons .
He plans to vote for Mr. Biden for president – joining other crossover Arizonans like the late Sen. John McCain ’ s widow , Cindy McCain .
Perhaps most crucially , Mr. Sanchez lives in Maricopa County – a longtime Republican electoral fortress that encompasses Phoenix and its fast-growing suburbs .
Maricopa , combined with reliably blue Tucson in Pima County , now accounts for more than three-quarters @ @ @ @ @ @ @ could propel Democrats to a stronger showing in Arizona than in Wisconsin , Michigan , or Pennsylvania , all of which have much larger concentrations of rural voters .
“ Arizona is a rapidly changing state .
Maricopa County alone is about 60 % of the vote , and that ’ s a rapidly diversifying , well-educated area , ” says Jessica Taylor , who follows the Senate for the Cook Political Report .
The report now rates Arizona as “ lean Democrat ” for both the presidential and Senate races .
Maricopa @ @ @ @ @ @ @ says Democratic consultant Chad Campbell , at Strategies360 in Phoenix .
“ Once Maricopa goes Democratic consistently , if you ’ re a Republican , you have serious problems , ” says the former legislator in the Arizona House .
Two years ago , Arizona voters sent Democrat Kyrsten Sinema to the U.S. Senate ; she beat then-Representative McSally by 2.4 percentage points .
It was the first time the state had elected a Democratic senator since the early 1980s .
Later that year , the governor appointed Ms. McSally to the seat @ @ @ @ @ @ @ up this year ’ s election to fill out the final two years of his term .
Senator McSally ’ s Democratic opponent , Mark Kelly , is a former Navy fighter pilot and space shuttle commander .
Many here know him as the husband of Gabby Giffords , the former congresswoman from Tucson , widely admired for her struggle to recover from an assassination attempt in 2011 , when she was shot in the head at an outdoor event .
Six people died in the mass shooting , and the couple have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ gun regulations .
On a recent Saturday in the Ahwatukee section of Phoenix , about 25 Democratic volunteers were gathering at 8 a.m. to pick up signs and literature to drop on driveways .
Democrats have not been knocking on doors due to the pandemic , but have aggressively reached out to voters through texts , calls , social media , and handwritten postcards and letters – along with a deluge of advertising .
Those who show up mirror the trends moving in Democrats ’ favor .
There ’ s Barbara Geiswite , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ voted for Mr. Trump in 2016 but switched her registration from Republican to Democrat in April after her son urged her “ to think for myself.
” Mark Swanson , an independent , has cast votes for both parties , but this year plans to vote for Democrats up and down the ballot : “ We need to restore balance in the country.
” Helping behind the scenes is a recent graduate from Arizona State University , John Gimenez .
He works in marketing for a mortgage company , and in his spare @ @ @ @ @ @ @ social media and digital advertising .
When he was 11 , his parents – immigrants from the Philippines – moved the family from Los Angeles to Arizona , where housing was much more affordable .
It ’ s a typical story and helps explain Maricopa County ’ s nearly 50 % population increase over the past two decades .
The state is the fastest growing in the nation and is expected to gain a congressional seat after this year ’ s census .
When Mr. Gimenez began to come out as gay in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ clear which political party he would support .
“ There was one side actively fighting against me and one side actively fighting for me.
” He started the first Young Democrats club at Hamilton High School in Chandler , a Phoenix suburb that has attracted a lot of young families .
The club had three members , including himself .
In recent years , the influx to Arizona has included younger people from all over the country – not just retirees from the conservative Midwest .
“ People don ’ t realize it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , ” notes Mr. Campbell , the Democratic strategist .
“ We have a young population , heavily Latino , that is much more progressive on a lot of issues.
” But Republicans are also still heading to Arizona , many of them political refugees from the West and East coasts .
“ They are happy to come here , where they can be free to be conservatives , ” says Sue Harrison , vice president of the Republican Club at PebbleCreek , a luxury retirement resort in Goodyear , a suburb of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Maricopa County .
Ms. Harrison is sitting on a folding chair on a busy corner near the resort , registering newcomers to vote , while a few dozen people wave Trump signs and American flags at honking cars and roaring Harleys as they pass by .
One of the flag-wavers is Denice Ballas , who moved to the resort about three months ago from Pleasanton , California .
She and her husband were the only ones in their old neighborhood to put up a Trump sign – though under cover of night , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ their front door and thank them .
Several people in the group note with concern that more and more progressives are moving to their community .
One quotes a favorite T-shirt : “ Don ’ t California My Arizona.
” Caroline Anderegg , spokeswoman for the McSally campaign , dismisses concerns about Maricopa County turning blue , calling them “ a lot of opinions by the chattering class.
” Still , she emphasizes that the senator was ranked the sixth-most bipartisan senator by the Lugar Center at Georgetown University .
Ms. McSally recently @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Hispanic faith leaders who applaud her stance against abortion rights and in favor of religious freedom .
“ Latinos are not a monolith , ” says Ms. Anderegg .
That ’ s true , but in 2018 , three-quarters of them voted Democratic in Arizona , according to polling firm Latino Decisions and the Democratic data company Catalist .
Latinos played a significant role in Senator Sinema ’ s victory and were a higher proportion of the electorate that year , up by three percentage points from 2014 .
Despite the pandemic , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ than 160,000 new Latino voters so far , about 80 % of them in Maricopa County , says Eduardo Sainz , state director for Mi Familia Vota .
That tops 100,000 new voters four years ago .
“ We ’ ve made a years-long effort to hear from and reach Latino voters across the state , ” said Kelly campaign spokesman Jacob Peters , in a statement to the Monitor .
Top of mind for Latinos are health care , jobs , and education .
Immigration is also part of the mix .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s 2017 pardon of former Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio , an immigration hard-liner , as a “ blatant attack ” on the Latino community .
Latinos helped oust Mr. Arpaio , a Republican , in 2016 , even as Mr. Trump won the county and the state .
Mr. Arpaio , along with Arizona ’ s highly controversial stop-and-check-immigration-status law , known as SB 1070 , turned off a generation of Latinos to Republicans , many say .
“ We already went through this anti- [ immigrant ] wave , ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ features a photo album of people he has helped obtain green cards and citizenship .
“ We thought we moved past that – and Donald Trump came and [ revived ] all these things we rejected , and made them national.
” Mr. Sanchez is running get-out-the-vote events from his law-firm parking lot in Mesa , right around the corner from the temple of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints , whose followers founded the city in the late 1800s .
He himself is a committed church member who leads services @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Latter-day Saints who have turned against the president .
In Arizona , the most prominent is former Sen. Jeff Flake .
Utah ’ s Sen. Mitt Romney is another .
Masked-up , he distributes Biden signs , stickers , and “ Adios Trump ” T-shirts .
Last month , he posted that same message on 10 billboards during President Trump ’ s visit .
Next up : a caravan drive for Mr. Biden .
All efforts are socially distant ( Mr. Sanchez was in bed for 10 days with the virus earlier this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ concerned the lack of in-person events and canvassing is hurting outreach .
Republicans , by contrast , have been full-throttle with in-person events , including visits from the president , vice president , and various surrogates .
Their turnout operation is a well-oiled machine .
“ People have amnesia and forget the president did win Arizona in 2016 , ” points out Ms. Anderegg .
“ While the state is incredibly independent , it is a right-leaning state.
” Republican consultant Sean Noble believes Senator McSally will ride President Trump ’ s coattails @ @ @ @ @ @ @ still some 100,000 new votes to be found for Mr. Trump , compared with 2016 – from conservatives who voted for the libertarian or a write-in candidate , or who left the first line of the ballot blank .
Now that they ’ ve seen what the president has done on things like taxes , regulations , and judges – especially the Supreme Court – they may be on board .
“ I just have a hard time thinking the character shot at the president is going to matter , ” he adds @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in ’ 16 even after the [ “ Access Hollywood ” ] tape came out.
” That ’ s certainly true for the flag-wavers of PebbleCreek .
“ Promises made , promises kept , ” says Ms. Harrison , who describes the president as a “ salty sailor who gets things done.
” Still , Democrats are hopeful that years of grassroots engagement of Latinos , combined with shifting demographics and the anti-Trump factor , will make this the year that Arizona finally turns blue .
“ It ’ s a perfect storm @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
“ We have a spectacular top-of-ticket with Biden , Harris , and Kelly , and all this engagement work being done .
It ’ s very exciting , as a long-suffering Arizona Democrat .
”

“Arizona is a rapidly changing state,” says Jessica Taylor of the Cook Political Report. “Maricopa County alone is about 60% of the vote, and that’s a rapidly diversifying, well-educated area.”
Maricopa, combined with Tucson’s Pima County, now accounts for more than three-quarters of Arizona votes. The urban tilt could propel Democrats to a stronger showing in Arizona than in Wisconsin, Michigan, or Pennsylvania, all of which have larger concentrations of rural voters.
In many ways, Yasser Sanchez embodies the state’s changing electorate. An immigration lawyer originally from Mexico, he recently quit the GOP, saying he’s “fed up” with the president over immigration and values. Mr. Sanchez lives in Maricopa County – a longtime Republican stronghold that encompasses Phoenix and its fast-growing suburbs.
Changing demographics in the nation’s fastest-growing state – where most voters live in one of two major metro areas – have made the home state of Barry Goldwater and John McCain fertile ground for Democrats.
It’s no exaggeration to say that the election outcome here could determine control of the White House as well as the Senate. After going for Donald Trump by 3.5 percentage points in 2016, Arizona has been rapidly shifting from red to purple – and now, maybe blue.
On Thursday, former Vice President Joe Biden and running mate Sen. Kamala Harris were headed to Arizona, for their first joint campaign appearance since the convention. Vice President Mike Pence was also visiting the state, for the fourth time.
Two years ago, Yasser Sanchez was all in for Martha McSally. An influential leader in the Latino community, he took the Republican Senate candidate around to Spanish-language radio, television, and newspapers. He put up signs for her.
Now, he’s planning to vote for her opponent.
Senator McSally, Mr. Sanchez explains, is in lockstep with President Donald Trump – whom he vigorously opposes. “I thought she could be the next maverick from Arizona,” says Mr. Sanchez, about the first female fighter pilot in the United States to fly and lead a squadron in combat. But “she will do whatever the party tells her, because if not, it will make her life impossible. She holds tight to the president.”
Why We Wrote This Changing demographics in the nation’s fastest-growing state – where most voters live in one of two major metro areas – have made the home state of Barry Goldwater and John McCain fertile ground for Democrats.
It’s no exaggeration to say that next month’s election in this once conservative stronghold could determine control of the White House and the Senate, as well as a state legislature that’s been dominated by Republicans for more than half a century. With just weeks to go, both parties are pouring resources into a state that went for Mr. Trump by 3.5 percentage points in 2016, but has been rapidly shifting from red to purple – and now, maybe blue.
On Thursday, former Vice President Joe Biden and running mate Sen. Kamala Harris were expected in the state, their first joint campaign appearance since the convention. Vice President Mike Pence was also scheduled to visit, for the fourth time. President Trump was supposed to hold two Arizona rallies this week, but those were put off after his COVID-19 diagnosis.
Courtesy of Yasser Sanchez View caption Hide caption Yasser Sanchez, a prominent immigration attorney in Mesa, Arizona, stands in front of a billboard in September 2020. The former Republican paid for the message on 10 billboards, timed to coincide with a visit from the president.
In many ways, Mr. Sanchez embodies Arizona’s changing electorate. An immigration lawyer and family man, he’s originally from Mexico – and is part of a growing Latino population that is becoming a larger share of the vote here and leans heavily Democratic. Mr. Sanchez himself quit the GOP last year, saying he’s “fed up” with the president’s values and his attacks on immigrants, among other reasons. He plans to vote for Mr. Biden for president – joining other crossover Arizonans like the late Sen. John McCain’s widow, Cindy McCain.
Perhaps most crucially, Mr. Sanchez lives in Maricopa County – a longtime Republican electoral fortress that encompasses Phoenix and its fast-growing suburbs. Maricopa, combined with reliably blue Tucson in Pima County, now accounts for more than three-quarters of Arizona votes. That urban tilt could propel Democrats to a stronger showing in Arizona than in Wisconsin, Michigan, or Pennsylvania, all of which have much larger concentrations of rural voters.
“Arizona is a rapidly changing state. Maricopa County alone is about 60% of the vote, and that’s a rapidly diversifying, well-educated area,” says Jessica Taylor, who follows the Senate for the Cook Political Report. The report now rates Arizona as “lean Democrat” for both the presidential and Senate races.
Maricopa County is the “bellwether,” says Democratic consultant Chad Campbell, at Strategies360 in Phoenix. “Once Maricopa goes Democratic consistently, if you’re a Republican, you have serious problems,” says the former legislator in the Arizona House.
Bellwether Maricopa County
Two years ago, Arizona voters sent Democrat Kyrsten Sinema to the U.S. Senate; she beat then-Representative McSally by 2.4 percentage points. It was the first time the state had elected a Democratic senator since the early 1980s. Later that year, the governor appointed Ms. McSally to the seat of the late Senator McCain, setting up this year’s election to fill out the final two years of his term.
Senator McSally’s Democratic opponent, Mark Kelly, is a former Navy fighter pilot and space shuttle commander. Many here know him as the husband of Gabby Giffords, the former congresswoman from Tucson, widely admired for her struggle to recover from an assassination attempt in 2011, when she was shot in the head at an outdoor event. Six people died in the mass shooting, and the couple have become strong advocates for “common-sense” gun regulations.
On a recent Saturday in the Ahwatukee section of Phoenix, about 25 Democratic volunteers were gathering at 8 a.m. to pick up signs and literature to drop on driveways. Democrats have not been knocking on doors due to the pandemic, but have aggressively reached out to voters through texts, calls, social media, and handwritten postcards and letters – along with a deluge of advertising.
Those who show up mirror the trends moving in Democrats’ favor.
There’s Barbara Geiswite, a recently retired dental assistant, who voted for Mr. Trump in 2016 but switched her registration from Republican to Democrat in April after her son urged her “to think for myself.” Mark Swanson, an independent, has cast votes for both parties, but this year plans to vote for Democrats up and down the ballot: “We need to restore balance in the country.”
Helping behind the scenes is a recent graduate from Arizona State University, John Gimenez. He works in marketing for a mortgage company, and in his spare time helps the local Democratic Party with social media and digital advertising. When he was 11, his parents – immigrants from the Philippines – moved the family from Los Angeles to Arizona, where housing was much more affordable. It’s a typical story and helps explain Maricopa County’s nearly 50% population increase over the past two decades. The state is the fastest growing in the nation and is expected to gain a congressional seat after this year’s census.
When Mr. Gimenez began to come out as gay in high school, he says it was clear which political party he would support. “There was one side actively fighting against me and one side actively fighting for me.” He started the first Young Democrats club at Hamilton High School in Chandler, a Phoenix suburb that has attracted a lot of young families. The club had three members, including himself.
Republican refugees
In recent years, the influx to Arizona has included younger people from all over the country – not just retirees from the conservative Midwest. “People don’t realize it if they don’t live here,” notes Mr. Campbell, the Democratic strategist. “We have a young population, heavily Latino, that is much more progressive on a lot of issues.”
Francine Kiefer/The Christian Science Monitor View caption Hide caption Sue Harrison, vice president of the PebbleCreek Republican Club, participates in a flag-waving and voter registration event in Goodyear, Arizona, on Sept. 26, 2020. She calls President Donald Trump "a salty sailor who gets things done."
But Republicans are also still heading to Arizona, many of them political refugees from the West and East coasts. “They are happy to come here, where they can be free to be conservatives,” says Sue Harrison, vice president of the Republican Club at PebbleCreek, a luxury retirement resort in Goodyear, a suburb of Phoenix that’s also part of Maricopa County.
Ms. Harrison is sitting on a folding chair on a busy corner near the resort, registering newcomers to vote, while a few dozen people wave Trump signs and American flags at honking cars and roaring Harleys as they pass by.
One of the flag-wavers is Denice Ballas, who moved to the resort about three months ago from Pleasanton, California. She and her husband were the only ones in their old neighborhood to put up a Trump sign – though under cover of night, she says, people would knock on their front door and thank them.
Several people in the group note with concern that more and more progressives are moving to their community. One quotes a favorite T-shirt: “Don’t California My Arizona.”
Caroline Anderegg, spokeswoman for the McSally campaign, dismisses concerns about Maricopa County turning blue, calling them “a lot of opinions by the chattering class.” Still, she emphasizes that the senator was ranked the sixth-most bipartisan senator by the Lugar Center at Georgetown University. Ms. McSally recently won the endorsement of a group of Hispanic faith leaders who applaud her stance against abortion rights and in favor of religious freedom. “Latinos are not a monolith,” says Ms. Anderegg.
Growing Latino clout
That’s true, but in 2018, three-quarters of them voted Democratic in Arizona, according to polling firm Latino Decisions and the Democratic data company Catalist. Latinos played a significant role in Senator Sinema’s victory and were a higher proportion of the electorate that year, up by three percentage points from 2014.
Despite the pandemic, grassroots organizers have managed to register more than 160,000 new Latino voters so far, about 80% of them in Maricopa County, says Eduardo Sainz, state director for Mi Familia Vota. That tops 100,000 new voters four years ago.
“We’ve made a years-long effort to hear from and reach Latino voters across the state,” said Kelly campaign spokesman Jacob Peters, in a statement to the Monitor.
Top of mind for Latinos are health care, jobs, and education. Immigration is also part of the mix.
Immigration attorney Mr. Sanchez blasts President Trump’s 2017 pardon of former Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio, an immigration hard-liner, as a “blatant attack” on the Latino community. Latinos helped oust Mr. Arpaio, a Republican, in 2016, even as Mr. Trump won the county and the state. Mr. Arpaio, along with Arizona’s highly controversial stop-and-check-immigration-status law, known as SB 1070, turned off a generation of Latinos to Republicans, many say.
“We already went through this anti-[immigrant] wave,” says Mr. Sanchez, whose reception room features a photo album of people he has helped obtain green cards and citizenship. “We thought we moved past that – and Donald Trump came and [revived] all these things we rejected, and made them national.”
Mr. Sanchez is running get-out-the-vote events from his law-firm parking lot in Mesa, right around the corner from the temple of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, whose followers founded the city in the late 1800s. He himself is a committed church member who leads services – and one of a number of Latter-day Saints who have turned against the president. In Arizona, the most prominent is former Sen. Jeff Flake. Utah’s Sen. Mitt Romney is another.
Masked-up, he distributes Biden signs, stickers, and “Adios Trump” T-shirts. Last month, he posted that same message on 10 billboards during President Trump’s visit. Next up: a caravan drive for Mr. Biden. All efforts are socially distant (Mr. Sanchez was in bed for 10 days with the virus earlier this year), but he’s concerned the lack of in-person events and canvassing is hurting outreach.
Kevin Lamarque/Reuters View caption Hide caption Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden speaks to reporters as he departs Wilmington, Delaware, Oct. 8, 2020, en route to Arizona.
Republicans, by contrast, have been full-throttle with in-person events, including visits from the president, vice president, and various surrogates. Their turnout operation is a well-oiled machine. “People have amnesia and forget the president did win Arizona in 2016,” points out Ms. Anderegg. “While the state is incredibly independent, it is a right-leaning state.”
Republican consultant Sean Noble believes Senator McSally will ride President Trump’s coattails to victory. He estimates there are still some 100,000 new votes to be found for Mr. Trump, compared with 2016 – from conservatives who voted for the libertarian or a write-in candidate, or who left the first line of the ballot blank. Now that they’ve seen what the president has done on things like taxes, regulations, and judges – especially the Supreme Court – they may be on board.
“I just have a hard time thinking the character shot at the president is going to matter,” he adds. “It didn’t matter in ’16 even after the [“Access Hollywood”] tape came out.”
That’s certainly true for the flag-wavers of PebbleCreek. “Promises made, promises kept,” says Ms. Harrison, who describes the president as a “salty sailor who gets things done.”
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Still, Democrats are hopeful that years of grassroots engagement of Latinos, combined with shifting demographics and the anti-Trump factor, will make this the year that Arizona finally turns blue.
“It’s a perfect storm,” says Democratic consultant Adam Kinsey. “We have a spectacular top-of-ticket with Biden, Harris, and Kelly, and all this engagement work being done. It’s very exciting, as a long-suffering Arizona Democrat.”


csmonitor--2020-10-08--Russia losing its influence? Nagorno-Karabakh fighting tests limits.

“ The damage to the old status quo is already beyond repair , ” says Andrei Kortunov of the Russian International Affairs Council .
“ It has changed to the detriment of Russia , and it calls for a rethinking of how Russia interacts with these former Soviet countries.
” Attempting to strong-arm Azerbaijan into a cease-fire risks losing Baku to Turkish influence .
Joining Armenia militarily might spark a disastrous regional war between Russia and Turkey .
It would certainly wreck President Vladimir Putin ’ s complicated relationship with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan .
Though Russia has a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with Armenia , it has cultivated good relations with Azerbaijan as well , and has even been the major arms supplier to both countries .
But thanks to Turkish armaments and support , Azerbaijan now believes it can recover what it sees as its lost territories without bending to Russian authority .
For nearly three decades , large portions of the former Soviet Union have been drifting away from Russia ’ s influence and into the orbits of more traditional regional powers .
Now , the sudden war between Armenia and Azerbaijan could @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s sway too – showing that Russia is not immune to the disruption to global order .
Scholars of the post-Soviet region often say that the collapse of the USSR is a yet-unfinished process with many surprises still in store .
The sudden eruption of large-scale war between Armenia and Azerbaijan almost two weeks ago is exactly the sort of thing they are talking about .
For nearly three decades , large portions of the once continent-straddling Soviet colossus have been drifting away from its former power center in Moscow and into @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
In the west , states like Ukraine and Belarus are drawn toward more successful European neighbors .
In the east , China has been quietly expanding its leverage over the ex-Soviet states of central Asia .
Now , thanks to the assertive reappearance of another traditional regional power , Turkey – which is firmly siding with Azerbaijan – the South Caucasus region could be torn from Moscow ’ s sphere of influence .
It ’ s an indication that the seeming collapse in the predictable world order isn ’ t just something @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s affecting countries like Russia as well .
Ever since a Russian-brokered cease-fire ended the first big Armenian-Azeri war over the disputed Armenian-populated enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh – which is legally Azeri territory – in 1994 , Moscow has policed an uneasy status quo that kept Armenia ’ s victory and huge territorial gains in that war largely intact .
Though Russia has a formal military alliance and other strong ties with Armenia , it has in practice cultivated good relations with both sides and has even been the major arms supplier to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of influence .
Indeed , when the last major round of fighting around Nagorno-Karabakh exploded in 2016 , Moscow was able to compel the two sides to pull back and accept a full cease-fire well inside of a week .
That is not going to happen this time .
Thanks to Turkish armaments , advice , diplomatic support , and the widely reported insertion of thousands of Turkish-allied Syrian fighters into the battle zone , Azerbaijan believes it can continue its war to recover what it sees as its lost territories without bending @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has already caused the Kremlin to step back and declare that the fighting is not its direct concern as long as it is only taking place on Armenian-occupied territories that are internationally recognized as Azerbaijani .
Despite having a strong , NATO-like military alliance with Russia and about 2,500 Russian troops stationed on its territory , Armenia is finding it impossible to draw Russia onto its side unless Azerbaijan attacks Armenia proper .
Russia has so far confined itself to calling for a cease-fire along with the United States and France , all @ @ @ @ @ @ @ toothless Minsk Group that has been charged with regulating the conflict for almost 30 years .
Russian experts say that Moscow is faced with a tough dilemma .
Attempting to strong-arm Azerbaijan into a cease-fire that maintains Armenian territorial advantages , as in the past , risks losing Baku to Turkish influence forever .
Taking Armenia ’ s side could tip the odds on the battlefield , but might lead to a disastrous regional war between Russia and Turkey .
At the least , it would wreck the complicated relationship that Vladimir Putin @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Erdoğan , which has delivered a lot of geopolitical benefits and profitable economic deals to Russia .
“ The damage to the old status quo is already beyond repair , ” says Andrei Kortunov , head of the Russian International Affairs Council , which is affiliated with the Foreign Ministry .
“ It has changed to the detriment of Russia , and it calls for a rethinking of how Russia interacts with these former Soviet countries .
It may also be necessary to find a new understanding with Turkey.
” This is the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Turkey find themselves supporting opposite sides , after Syria and Libya .
Somehow , Mr. Putin and Mr. Erdoğan have found it possible to manage their contradictions , while pursuing their own contrary national interests .
“ Ever since Russia and Turkey clashed in Syria five years ago , commentators have been predicting that they will drastically fall out , ” says Mr. Kortunov .
“ Now the balance is more unstable than ever .
But do not underestimate the things that drive them to cooperate .
Open confrontation would be catastrophic for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , they have a similar view of the world , their attitudes toward the West coincide , they ’ ve developed significant economic ties , and at least so far , have found ways to manage their rivalry in Syria , and to a certain extent in Libya .
If Russia can accept Turkey as a player in a region it formerly had to itself , the South Caucasus , there is every reason to hope this complex mix of cooperation and competition can work there too.
” There are no fresh polls @ @ @ @ @ @ @ current fighting .
But the last time near-war broke out , in 2016 , polls showed Russians largely indifferent , with a substantial minority supporting Armenia and somewhat smaller numbers sympathetic to Azerbaijan .
That reflects the large diasporas of both ethnic groups in Russia : about 3 million Armenians and 2 million Azeris .
The enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh , which now calls itself the Republic of Artsakh , is a hotly contested territory that ’ s claimed by both Armenians and Azeris as a cradle of their national cultures .
Armenians are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ its imprint on the wider region , though the once huge Armenian population in present-day Turkey was mostly exterminated in a brutal genocide conducted by the Ottoman Turks in 1915 .
Azeris are an ethnically Turkic people , whose language is close to Turkish , but who are mostly Shiite Muslims , reflecting their long historical immersion in the former Persian Empire .
Armenia is a burgeoning democracy , while Azerbaijan is ruled by a post-Soviet dynastic autocracy .
For Azeris , who outnumber Armenians 3-to-1 , the loss of Nagorno-Karabakh and seven @ @ @ @ @ @ @ war was a national humiliation , which also led to an influx of nearly a million refugees from Armenian-occupied zones .
Those refugees still live in forlorn camps , some within sight of their former villages , and remain a burning issue that the government keeps alive .
In conversation with the Monitor and other journalists several years ago , Azeri President Ilham Aliyev explained in highly relevant detail how he intended to bide his time and apply the country ’ s oil wealth to build up its armed forces , until the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ territories .
“ The territorial integrity of Azerbaijan is not a subject for negotiation , ” he said at the time .
Ilgar Velizade , a Baku-based political expert , says that time has arrived .
“ Our mobilization resources are vastly greater than Armenia ’ s , ” he says .
“ We ’ re a rich country , with gas and oil , and we can even produce our own weapons as well as purchase them abroad .
Armenia is totally dependent on Russia .
Unfortunately , things are unlikely to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ future , because the Armenians are resisting and refusing to give up the lands they took .
As long as there are any Armenian forces on Azerbaijani soil , the war will go on.
” Mr. Velizade expresses satisfaction with Russia ’ s hands-off approach .
“ Russia is preserving its position as an effective moderator by refraining from any anti-Azeri or anti-Armenian statements , ” he says .
“ If there is to be a diplomatic solution to this situation , it must be found according to principles that have long been @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Group which require Armenia to withdraw from the territories it occupies and then allow the status of Nagorno-Karabakh to be decided by the joint will of the Armenian and Azeri people.
” The mood in Armenia is quite different .
Although its forces are reportedly exacting a high price on the advancing Azeris , they are taking heavy losses from Turkish- and Israeli-built drones and other sophisticated weaponry that ’ s been provided to Azerbaijan in recent years .
“ Azerbaijan chose a moment when all other countries were occupied with their own @ @ @ @ @ @ @ South Caucasus , ” says Alexander Iskanderyan , head of the independent Caucasus Institute in Yerevan .
“ In Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh , Russia ’ s attitude causes a negative emotional response .
We can understand the Russians , in light of new realities .
They need both Armenia and Azerbaijan for their own reasons .
So , Russia ’ s choice is not to make a choice .
But as a result , Russia ’ s image is suffering , and it could end up losing one or both ” of its @ @ @ @ @ @ @ running out for Moscow ’ s fence-sitting approach , if only for practical reasons .
After two weeks of intense fighting , both sides are going to need a resupply of weapons , spare parts , and ammunition for their Russian-made arms .
For Armenia , which is entirely dependent on Russian weapons , it ’ s soon likely to become critical .
“ Russia is going to need to make a clear choice .
Who will it throw its support behind ?
” says Alexander Golts , an independent Russian security expert @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is a potential catastrophe for Russia ’ s role in the South Caucasus .
”

“The damage to the old status quo is already beyond repair,” says Andrei Kortunov of the Russian International Affairs Council. “It has changed to the detriment of Russia, and it calls for a rethinking of how Russia interacts with these former Soviet countries.”
Attempting to strong-arm Azerbaijan into a cease-fire risks losing Baku to Turkish influence. Joining Armenia militarily might spark a disastrous regional war between Russia and Turkey. It would certainly wreck President Vladimir Putin’s complicated relationship with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.
The outbreak of fighting in Nagorno-Karabakh shows that the disruption in global order isn’t limited to the West. Russia is seeing its “near abroad” neighbors being tugged from its influence.
Though Russia has a formal military alliance and other strong ties with Armenia, it has cultivated good relations with Azerbaijan as well, and has even been the major arms supplier to both countries. But thanks to Turkish armaments and support, Azerbaijan now believes it can recover what it sees as its lost territories without bending to Russian authority.
For nearly three decades, large portions of the former Soviet Union have been drifting away from Russia’s influence and into the orbits of more traditional regional powers. Now, the sudden war between Armenia and Azerbaijan could see the South Caucasus fall from Moscow’s sway too – showing that Russia is not immune to the disruption to global order.
Scholars of the post-Soviet region often say that the collapse of the USSR is a yet-unfinished process with many surprises still in store. The sudden eruption of large-scale war between Armenia and Azerbaijan almost two weeks ago is exactly the sort of thing they are talking about.
For nearly three decades, large portions of the once continent-straddling Soviet colossus have been drifting away from its former power center in Moscow and into the orbits of more traditional regional powers. In the west, states like Ukraine and Belarus are drawn toward more successful European neighbors. In the east, China has been quietly expanding its leverage over the ex-Soviet states of central Asia.
Now, thanks to the assertive reappearance of another traditional regional power, Turkey – which is firmly siding with Azerbaijan – the South Caucasus region could be torn from Moscow’s sphere of influence. It’s an indication that the seeming collapse in the predictable world order isn’t just something afflicting the West, but that it’s affecting countries like Russia as well.
Why We Wrote This The outbreak of fighting in Nagorno-Karabakh shows that the disruption in global order isn’t limited to the West. Russia is seeing its “near abroad” neighbors being tugged from its influence.
Russia on the sidelines
Ever since a Russian-brokered cease-fire ended the first big Armenian-Azeri war over the disputed Armenian-populated enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh – which is legally Azeri territory – in 1994, Moscow has policed an uneasy status quo that kept Armenia’s victory and huge territorial gains in that war largely intact. Though Russia has a formal military alliance and other strong ties with Armenia, it has in practice cultivated good relations with both sides and has even been the major arms supplier to both countries. That conferred a lot of influence. Indeed, when the last major round of fighting around Nagorno-Karabakh exploded in 2016, Moscow was able to compel the two sides to pull back and accept a full cease-fire well inside of a week.
That is not going to happen this time. Thanks to Turkish armaments, advice, diplomatic support, and the widely reported insertion of thousands of Turkish-allied Syrian fighters into the battle zone, Azerbaijan believes it can continue its war to recover what it sees as its lost territories without bending to Russian authority.
That new reality has already caused the Kremlin to step back and declare that the fighting is not its direct concern as long as it is only taking place on Armenian-occupied territories that are internationally recognized as Azerbaijani. Despite having a strong, NATO-like military alliance with Russia and about 2,500 Russian troops stationed on its territory, Armenia is finding it impossible to draw Russia onto its side unless Azerbaijan attacks Armenia proper. Russia has so far confined itself to calling for a cease-fire along with the United States and France, all three of which make up the largely toothless Minsk Group that has been charged with regulating the conflict for almost 30 years.
Dmitri Lovetsky/AP View caption Hide caption A man walks by an apartment building damaged by Azeri shelling in Stepanakert, Nagorno-Karabakh, Oct. 7, 2020. Russia is an arms supplier to both Azerbaijan and Armenia, though Azerbaijan has supplemented its materiel with Turkish and Israeli weaponry.
Russian experts say that Moscow is faced with a tough dilemma. Attempting to strong-arm Azerbaijan into a cease-fire that maintains Armenian territorial advantages, as in the past, risks losing Baku to Turkish influence forever. Taking Armenia’s side could tip the odds on the battlefield, but might lead to a disastrous regional war between Russia and Turkey. At the least, it would wreck the complicated relationship that Vladimir Putin has developed with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, which has delivered a lot of geopolitical benefits and profitable economic deals to Russia.
“The damage to the old status quo is already beyond repair,” says Andrei Kortunov, head of the Russian International Affairs Council, which is affiliated with the Foreign Ministry. “It has changed to the detriment of Russia, and it calls for a rethinking of how Russia interacts with these former Soviet countries. It may also be necessary to find a new understanding with Turkey.”
This is the third regional conflict in which Russia and Turkey find themselves supporting opposite sides, after Syria and Libya. Somehow, Mr. Putin and Mr. Erdoğan have found it possible to manage their contradictions, while pursuing their own contrary national interests.
“Ever since Russia and Turkey clashed in Syria five years ago, commentators have been predicting that they will drastically fall out,” says Mr. Kortunov. “Now the balance is more unstable than ever. But do not underestimate the things that drive them to cooperate. Open confrontation would be catastrophic for them both. On the positive side, they have a similar view of the world, their attitudes toward the West coincide, they’ve developed significant economic ties, and at least so far, have found ways to manage their rivalry in Syria, and to a certain extent in Libya. If Russia can accept Turkey as a player in a region it formerly had to itself, the South Caucasus, there is every reason to hope this complex mix of cooperation and competition can work there too.”
A bitter conflict
There are no fresh polls that show Russian public attitudes toward the current fighting. But the last time near-war broke out, in 2016, polls showed Russians largely indifferent, with a substantial minority supporting Armenia and somewhat smaller numbers sympathetic to Azerbaijan. That reflects the large diasporas of both ethnic groups in Russia: about 3 million Armenians and 2 million Azeris.
The enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh, which now calls itself the Republic of Artsakh, is a hotly contested territory that’s claimed by both Armenians and Azeris as a cradle of their national cultures. Armenians are an ancient Christian civilization that has left its imprint on the wider region, though the once huge Armenian population in present-day Turkey was mostly exterminated in a brutal genocide conducted by the Ottoman Turks in 1915. Azeris are an ethnically Turkic people, whose language is close to Turkish, but who are mostly Shiite Muslims, reflecting their long historical immersion in the former Persian Empire. Armenia is a burgeoning democracy, while Azerbaijan is ruled by a post-Soviet dynastic autocracy.
For Azeris, who outnumber Armenians 3-to-1, the loss of Nagorno-Karabakh and seven other regions to Armenia in the 1988-94 war was a national humiliation, which also led to an influx of nearly a million refugees from Armenian-occupied zones. Those refugees still live in forlorn camps, some within sight of their former villages, and remain a burning issue that the government keeps alive. In conversation with the Monitor and other journalists several years ago, Azeri President Ilham Aliyev explained in highly relevant detail how he intended to bide his time and apply the country’s oil wealth to build up its armed forces, until the moment was ripe to recover those lost territories. “The territorial integrity of Azerbaijan is not a subject for negotiation,” he said at the time.
Ilgar Velizade, a Baku-based political expert, says that time has arrived.
“Our mobilization resources are vastly greater than Armenia’s,” he says. “We’re a rich country, with gas and oil, and we can even produce our own weapons as well as purchase them abroad. Armenia is totally dependent on Russia. Unfortunately, things are unlikely to take a peaceful turn in the near future, because the Armenians are resisting and refusing to give up the lands they took. As long as there are any Armenian forces on Azerbaijani soil, the war will go on.”
Mr. Velizade expresses satisfaction with Russia’s hands-off approach. “Russia is preserving its position as an effective moderator by refraining from any anti-Azeri or anti-Armenian statements,” he says. “If there is to be a diplomatic solution to this situation, it must be found according to principles that have long been affirmed by the UN and the Minsk Group which require Armenia to withdraw from the territories it occupies and then allow the status of Nagorno-Karabakh to be decided by the joint will of the Armenian and Azeri people.”
“Russia needs to make a clear choice”
The mood in Armenia is quite different. Although its forces are reportedly exacting a high price on the advancing Azeris, they are taking heavy losses from Turkish- and Israeli-built drones and other sophisticated weaponry that’s been provided to Azerbaijan in recent years.
“Azerbaijan chose a moment when all other countries were occupied with their own problems, and nobody cares about the South Caucasus,” says Alexander Iskandaryan, head of the independent Caucasus Institute in Yerevan. “In Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh, Russia’s attitude causes a negative emotional response. We can understand the Russians, in light of new realities. They need both Armenia and Azerbaijan for their own reasons. So, Russia’s choice is not to make a choice. But as a result, Russia’s image is suffering, and it could end up losing one or both” of its South Caucasus clients.
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Time may be running out for Moscow’s fence-sitting approach, if only for practical reasons. After two weeks of intense fighting, both sides are going to need a resupply of weapons, spare parts, and ammunition for their Russian-made arms. For Armenia, which is entirely dependent on Russian weapons, it’s soon likely to become critical.
“Russia is going to need to make a clear choice. Who will it throw its support behind?” says Alexander Golts, an independent Russian security expert. “Whatever it decides to do is a potential catastrophe for Russia’s role in the South Caucasus.”


csmonitor--2020-10-08--In divided Israel, desert town models a united front against virus

“ The mayor and I spoke personally with all of the rabbis , prayer leaders , and congregants , ” says Yeruham Chief Rabbi Yitzhak Shalev .
“ I ’ m not interested in the guidelines .
I care about saving lives .
That is a religious imperative that takes precedence over everything else.
” But the Negev Desert town of Yeruham and its young mayor , Tal Ohana , who boot-strapped a local contact-tracing operation , stand out as rare bright spots , becoming celebrities in Israeli media .
The country has taken notice .
“ We took responsibility @ @ @ @ @ @ @ says .
“ I realized we needed to manage on our own.
” “ Political and social divides have worsened , most of all the divide between the ultra-Orthodox and everyone else , ” says author Yossi Klein Halevi .
That ’ s “ a problem for Israeli society in normal times .
It becomes an acute danger in a time of medical crisis.
” Israel ’ s social fabric is being strained by the politicization of the pandemic .
The country has gone from crushing the curve of the coronavirus outbreak in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ highest rates of infection and new deaths per capita in the fall .
In late September , as Israel celebrated Judaism ’ s High Holy Days , ultra-Orthodox communities accounted for 40 % of new Israeli coronavirus cases .
When Israel reimposed a lockdown ahead of the Jewish new year last month to rein in a runaway second wave of COVID-19 , the government made a controversial exception – allowing large groups of worshippers to congregate inside synagogues for High Holy Day services against the advice of public health experts .
But in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ which had become a pandemic hotspot following a party thrown by high schoolers , Mayor Tal Ohana opted for stricter limitations , teaming up with the town ’ s chief rabbi in an appeal to the religious community to shutter synagogues and move services outside .
The outreach was one piece of a homegrown public health operation spearheaded by Ms. Ohana that successfully stemmed an outbreak in just a few weeks , turning a small town into a model for the rest of the country .
“ The mayor and I spoke personally @ @ @ @ @ @ @ leaders , and congregants .
Our message to them was that we don ’ t want to prohibit prayers , we are just moving prayers to another place , ” says Yeruham Chief Rabbi Yitzhak Shalev .
“ I ’ m not interested in the guidelines .
I care about saving lives – that is a religious imperative that takes precedence over everything else.
” Yeruham ’ s cooperation on worship stands out as a rare bright spot at a time Israel ’ s social fabric is being strained by the politicization of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ boot-strapped contact-tracing operation helmed by the 36-year old mayor is the mirror opposite of that of a national government accused of mismanagement and a sluggish response even as the leaders themselves violated the rules .
“ We took responsibility from the get go , ” Ms. Ohana says , explaining why local authorities can do better in reining in community spread , where outsiders from the national government are at a disadvantage .
“ I realized we needed to manage on our own .
There ’ s a lot of local wisdom and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ t familiar wouldn ’ t understand.
” Beyond Ms. Ohana ’ s remote Negev town of fewer than 11,000 , Israel ’ s pandemic malaise plays out nightly on two fronts .
Mass protests against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over his corruption trial and his handling of the coronavirus have turned into violent clashes with police trying to enforce lockdown restrictions on demonstrations .
Protesters accuse the government of exploiting the pandemic to crush democratic dissent , while Mr. Netanyahu has accused them of spreading the virus .
On the other front , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ crack down on mass gatherings in cloistered ultra-Orthodox communities that have flaunted lockdown restrictions .
That defiance comes even though the coalition government , bowing to the influence of religious parties , made an exception to a 10-person limit on indoor gatherings , allowing synagogues to be subdivided into “ capsules ” of 10 to 25 worshippers separated by plastic dividers .
“ Political and social divides have worsened , most of all the divide between the ultra-Orthodox and everyone else on the other side , ” says Yossi Klein Halevi , an @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is a problem for Israeli society in normal times , it becomes an acute danger in a time of medical crisis , ” adds Mr. Klein Halevi , a fellow at the Shalom Hartman Institute , a Jewish research and education institute based in Jerusalem .
“ The other divide in Israeli society is over Netanyahu himself , ” he says .
“ One side sees him as indispensable , the only one who can keep them safe , while the other side sees him as a danger .
The corona crisis has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , who accuse the prime minister of playing with the lives of Israelis for his own political needs.
” The government has been widely criticized for reopening the economy and schools too quickly , dropping the ball on scaling up contact tracing , tolerating lockdown violations by its own members , and letting political considerations delay implementation of a plan by public health experts for selective closures and restrictions instead of a nationwide shutdown .
Mr. Netanyahu ’ s Likud party has accordingly plummeted in the polls in recent months .
Rising frustration @ @ @ @ @ @ @ recriminations among the country ’ s various political tribes made it more difficult ahead of the recent lockdown to get buy-in from local residents , says Yeruham ’ s Rabbi Shalev .
“ We are in an emergency , ” he says .
“ It ’ s as if all of Israel is together on a ship at sea .
And one person wants to drill a hole in their cabin , but it endangers everyone .
There is a feeling among the public that if my neighbor is drilling a hole , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to do it as well .
And that ’ s a very big danger.
” While Mayor Ohana road-tripped to army bases to borrow camouflage netting to create shade for outdoor worship on Rosh Hashana , the new year , and Yom Kippur , the Day of Atonement , Rabbi Shalev gave out guidelines on adjusting the timing and duration of services to avoid prayer and fasting in 100-degree heat .
Though there was ample debate over how to modify the solemn services for outdoors , the experience of worshipping in the public @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
“ Togetherness is a very good word for it .
It was an even bigger opportunity for neighbors to be part of it , and it was more accessible for women , ” says Rabbi Yonatan Wolff , a yeshiva teacher in the town , referring to the gender separation in Orthodox synagogues .
“ It was a nice way to compromise and have a special prayer atmosphere.
” Yeruham , normally known as a dusty , lower socioeconomic “ development town ” of immigrants , and Mayor Ohana have become celebrities @ @ @ @ @ @ @ government and big cities have taken notice as well .
Prime Minister Netanyahu held a Zoom meeting Wednesday with Israeli mayors to discuss improving coordination .
“ He has centralized management of the pandemic , and now that it ’ s not working he convened mayors and said let me give you more power , ” says Tal Schneider , a columnist for the financial daily Globes who profiled Ms. Ohana .
“ It ’ s too little too late.
” Israel has gone from crushing the curve of the coronavirus outbreak in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ highest rates of infection and new deaths per capita in the fall .
When Israel imposed its first lockdown in March , about 60 % of Israelis thought the restrictions were appropriate , while only 32 % thought the same about the restrictions that took effect Sept. 18 , according to a poll by the Israel Democracy Institute .
Ultra-Orthodox individuals accounted for 40 % of new coronavirus cases in late September , stocking criticism that authorities have permitted ultra-Orthodox cities and neighborhoods to operate as autonomous entities .
Ms. Ohana also spearheaded @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , which makes up a little less than 10 % of the city ’ s population .
She credits rabbis with enforcing quarantines through communal sanctions and says parents agreed to get tests for kids returning from religious boarding schools in hot spots .
“ They did things that were out of the ordinary , ” she says .
From the high school students who sparked Yeruham ’ s September outbreak , Mayor Ohana required a dose of community service : staffing the town ’ s contact-tracing operation and outreach to the city @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cue from Yeruham , Tel Aviv this week announced its own contact tracing and outreach operation .
Asked by a public television reporter for some advice to encourage a frustrated country , Ms. Ohana ’ s advice was surprisingly simple .
“ Enough of the infighting .
Everyone does to the best of their ability , ” she said .
“ Listen to the experts .
Every guideline is etched in blood .
If we all have faith , and take personal responsibility , everything will work out .
”

“The mayor and I spoke personally with all of the rabbis, prayer leaders, and congregants,” says Yeruham Chief Rabbi Yitzhak Shalev. “I’m not interested in the guidelines. I care about saving lives. That is a religious imperative that takes precedence over everything else.”
But the Negev Desert town of Yeruham and its young mayor, Tal Ohana, who boot-strapped a local contact-tracing operation, stand out as rare bright spots, becoming celebrities in Israeli media. The country has taken notice. “We took responsibility from the get-go,” Ms. Ohana says. “I realized we needed to manage on our own.”
The U.S. isn’t the only country where politics has weakened the battle against the coronavirus. In Israel, one struggle has been to enlist the religious community. A small-town mayor is being praised for her example.
“Political and social divides have worsened, most of all the divide between the ultra-Orthodox and everyone else,” says author Yossi Klein Halevi. That’s “a problem for Israeli society in normal times. It becomes an acute danger in a time of medical crisis.”
Israel’s social fabric is being strained by the politicization of the pandemic. The country has gone from crushing the curve of the coronavirus outbreak in the spring to having one of the highest rates of infection and new deaths per capita in the fall. In late September, as Israel celebrated Judaism’s High Holy Days, ultra-Orthodox communities accounted for 40% of new Israeli coronavirus cases.
When Israel reimposed a lockdown ahead of the Jewish new year last month to rein in a runaway second wave of COVID-19, the government made a controversial exception – allowing large groups of worshippers to congregate inside synagogues for High Holy Day services against the advice of public health experts.
But in the tiny desert hamlet of Yeruham, which had become a pandemic hotspot following a party thrown by high schoolers, Mayor Tal Ohana opted for stricter limitations, teaming up with the town’s chief rabbi in an appeal to the religious community to shutter synagogues and move services outside.
The outreach was one piece of a homegrown public health operation spearheaded by Ms. Ohana that successfully stemmed an outbreak in just a few weeks, turning a small town into a model for the rest of the country.
Why We Wrote This The U.S. isn’t the only country where politics has weakened the battle against the coronavirus. In Israel, one struggle has been to enlist the religious community. A small-town mayor is being praised for her example.
“The mayor and I spoke personally with all of the rabbis, prayer leaders, and congregants. Our message to them was that we don’t want to prohibit prayers, we are just moving prayers to another place,” says Yeruham Chief Rabbi Yitzhak Shalev. “I’m not interested in the guidelines. I care about saving lives – that is a religious imperative that takes precedence over everything else.”
Yeruham’s cooperation on worship stands out as a rare bright spot at a time Israel’s social fabric is being strained by the politicization of the pandemic. The story of a boot-strapped contact-tracing operation helmed by the 36-year old mayor is the mirror opposite of that of a national government accused of mismanagement and a sluggish response even as the leaders themselves violated the rules.
“We took responsibility from the get go,” Ms. Ohana says, explaining why local authorities can do better in reining in community spread, where outsiders from the national government are at a disadvantage. “I realized we needed to manage on our own. There’s a lot of local wisdom and nuance, that one who isn’t familiar wouldn’t understand.”
Beyond Ms. Ohana’s remote Negev town of fewer than 11,000, Israel’s pandemic malaise plays out nightly on two fronts.
Mass protests against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over his corruption trial and his handling of the coronavirus have turned into violent clashes with police trying to enforce lockdown restrictions on demonstrations. Protesters accuse the government of exploiting the pandemic to crush democratic dissent, while Mr. Netanyahu has accused them of spreading the virus.
Worsening divides
On the other front, police have used force to attempt to crack down on mass gatherings in cloistered ultra-Orthodox communities that have flouted lockdown restrictions. That defiance comes even though the coalition government, bowing to the influence of religious parties, made an exception to a 10-person limit on indoor gatherings, allowing synagogues to be subdivided into “capsules” of 10 to 25 worshippers separated by plastic dividers.
“Political and social divides have worsened, most of all the divide between the ultra-Orthodox and everyone else on the other side,” says Yossi Klein Halevi, an Israeli American author.
“Ultra-Orthodox separatism is a problem for Israeli society in normal times, it becomes an acute danger in a time of medical crisis,” adds Mr. Klein Halevi, a fellow at the Shalom Hartman Institute, a Jewish research and education institute based in Jerusalem.
“The other divide in Israeli society is over Netanyahu himself,” he says. “One side sees him as indispensable, the only one who can keep them safe, while the other side sees him as a danger. The corona crisis has intensified the rage of the latter group, who accuse the prime minister of playing with the lives of Israelis for his own political needs.”
Sebastian Scheiner/AP View caption Hide caption Celebrants recite prayers for the Jewish harvest and pilgrimage festival of Sukkot, or Feast of the Tabernacles, while waving fronds of palm, willow, and myrtle at the Western Wall, the holiest site where Jews can pray in Jerusalem's Old City, Oct. 5, 2020.
The government has been widely criticized for reopening the economy and schools too quickly, dropping the ball on scaling up contact tracing, tolerating lockdown violations by its own members, and letting political considerations delay implementation of a plan by public health experts for selective closures and restrictions instead of a nationwide shutdown. Mr. Netanyahu’s Likud party has accordingly plummeted in the polls in recent months.
Fasting in 100-degree heat
Rising frustration with the government along with the mutual recriminations among the country’s various political tribes made it more difficult ahead of the recent lockdown to get buy-in from local residents, says Yeruham’s Rabbi Shalev.
“We are in an emergency,” he says. “It’s as if all of Israel is together on a ship at sea. And one person wants to drill a hole in their cabin, but it endangers everyone. There is a feeling among the public that if my neighbor is drilling a hole, then it’s OK for me to do it as well. And that’s a very big danger.”
While Mayor Ohana road-tripped to army bases to borrow camouflage netting to create shade for outdoor worship on Rosh Hashana, the new year, and Yom Kippur, the Day of Atonement, Rabbi Shalev gave out guidelines on adjusting the timing and duration of services to avoid prayer and fasting in 100-degree heat.
Though there was ample debate over how to modify the solemn services for outdoors, the experience of worshipping in the public space was hailed as uplifting and inclusive.
“Togetherness is a very good word for it. It was an even bigger opportunity for neighbors to be part of it, and it was more accessible for women,” says Rabbi Yonatan Wolff, a yeshiva teacher in the town, referring to the gender separation in Orthodox synagogues. “It was a nice way to compromise and have a special prayer atmosphere.”
Media celebrities
Yeruham, normally known as a dusty, lower socioeconomic “development town” of immigrants, and Mayor Ohana have become celebrities in the Israeli media. The national government and big cities have taken notice as well. Prime Minister Netanyahu held a Zoom meeting Wednesday with Israeli mayors to discuss improving coordination.
“He has centralized management of the pandemic, and now that it’s not working he convened mayors and said let me give you more power,” says Tal Schneider, a columnist for the financial daily Globes who profiled Ms. Ohana. “It’s too little too late.”
Israel has gone from crushing the curve of the coronavirus outbreak in the spring to having one of the highest rates of infection and new deaths per capita in the fall. When Israel imposed its first lockdown in March, about 60% of Israelis thought the restrictions were appropriate, while only 32% thought the same about the restrictions that took effect Sept. 18, according to a poll by the Israel Democracy Institute.
Ultra-Orthodox individuals accounted for 40% of new coronavirus cases in late September, stoking criticism that authorities have permitted ultra-Orthodox cities and neighborhoods to operate as autonomous entities.
Ms. Ohana also spearheaded outreach to Yeruham’s ultra-Orthodox community, which makes up a little less than 10% of the city’s population. She credits rabbis with enforcing quarantines through communal sanctions and says parents agreed to get tests for kids returning from religious boarding schools in hot spots. “They did things that were out of the ordinary,” she says.
From the high school students who sparked Yeruham’s September outbreak, Mayor Ohana required a dose of community service: staffing the town’s contact-tracing operation and outreach to the city’s older adults.
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Taking a cue from Yeruham, Tel Aviv this week announced its own contact tracing and outreach operation. Asked by a public television reporter for some advice to encourage a frustrated country, Ms. Ohana’s advice was surprisingly simple.
“Enough of the infighting. Everyone does to the best of their ability,” she said. “Listen to the experts. Every guideline is etched in blood. If we all have faith, and take personal responsibility, everything will work out.”


csmonitor--2020-10-08--The noble harmony behind peace prizes

The noble harmony behind peace prizes

The world ’ s most prestigious award , the Nobel Peace Prize , will be announced Oct. 9 amid a time of pandemic , worsening climate change , and democratic decline .
In making its selection , the Norwegian Nobel Committee will no doubt look back at the record of the prize ’ s last recipient , Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed .
He was chosen for making peace with Eritrea and for his democratic reforms .
Yet 2020 has been a tough year for Dr. Abiy , especially for someone with a doctorate in conflict resolution who puts harmony @ @ @ @ @ @ @ work .
Since assuming power in 2018 following mass protests , his efforts to bring openness and equality to Ethiopia have unleashed ethnic and separatist violence in one of the world ’ s youngest , poorest , and most diverse countries .
To many , his crackdown against the violence has not always been peaceful .
He ’ s also had to deal with a locust invasion , a pandemic-hit economy , and mass floods .
Yet despite all this , Dr. Abiy said last month that his goal of an inclusive democracy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ illusion that this would be a smooth ride , ” Dr. Abiy told the United Nations General Assembly .
His ability to think of harmony as an assured norm is best seen in his current outreach to the Tigray people .
That minority ’ s regional government is attempting to defy central authorities and perhaps even seek independence .
Negotiations have been difficult .
But as Dr. Abiy told local Fana TV : “ The government scrutinizes each and every action from perspectives of the interests of the people of Tigray .
... @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
We dare not to take measures that will hurt them.
” Listening to one ’ s opponents with compassion has been a common trait among many peace prize laureates as well as winners of similar prizes .
Such qualities of character spring from an inner harmony based on humility .
One of Dr. Abiy ’ s favorite phrases is “ love always wins.
” He says people of different faiths and ethnicities in his country must be able to see themselves as Ethiopians .
“ We can love what we are without @ @ @ @ @ @ @ he wrote .
Harmony was also the theme in a talk by this year ’ s recipient of the Templeton Prize .
Now in its 50th year , this award is given for insights on humankind ’ s purpose .
It has gone to figures such as Mother Teresa and the Dalai Lama .
The 2020 winner , Francis Collins , a geneticist and physician who is director of the National Institutes of Health , told an online audience Sept. 24 that today ’ s main conflicts in the United States – over @ @ @ @ @ @ @ – require three solutions to “ heal our land.
” They are a commitment to truth and reason , a filling of “ the growing spiritual void , ” and a “ return to our calling to love one another.
” Like Ethiopia ’ s leader , Dr. Collins does not see political polarization as inevitable .
He quoted from one of his recent books : “ God ’ s creation is majestic , awesome , intricate , and beautiful – and it can not be at war with itself.
” If Americans @ @ @ @ @ @ @ conflict and instead “ reach out beyond our own tribes , ” there is an opportunity for harmony .
“ Blessed are the depolarizers , ” he summed up , “ for harmony can show us a better way.
” That idea has long been the spirit of the Nobel Peace Prize .
Its recipients are acknowledged for the harmony they have achieved .
But they must also be known for the harmony they have discovered within .

The world’s most prestigious award, the Nobel Peace Prize, will be announced Oct. 9 amid a time of pandemic, worsening climate change, and democratic decline. In making its selection, the Norwegian Nobel Committee will no doubt look back at the record of the prize’s last recipient, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed.
He was chosen for making peace with Eritrea and for his democratic reforms. Yet 2020 has been a tough year for Dr. Abiy, especially for someone with a doctorate in conflict resolution who puts harmony between people at the center of his work.
Since assuming power in 2018 following mass protests, his efforts to bring openness and equality to Ethiopia have unleashed ethnic and separatist violence in one of the world’s youngest, poorest, and most diverse countries. To many, his crackdown against the violence has not always been peaceful. He’s also had to deal with a locust invasion, a pandemic-hit economy, and mass floods. Yet despite all this, Dr. Abiy said last month that his goal of an inclusive democracy remains inevitable. “We have no illusion that this would be a smooth ride,” Dr. Abiy told the United Nations General Assembly.
His ability to think of harmony as an assured norm is best seen in his current outreach to the Tigray people. That minority’s regional government is attempting to defy central authorities and perhaps even seek independence. Negotiations have been difficult. But as Dr. Abiy told local Fana TV: “The government scrutinizes each and every action from perspectives of the interests of the people of Tigray. ... The people of Tigray are our people. We dare not to take measures that will hurt them.”
Listening to one’s opponents with compassion has been a common trait among many peace prize laureates as well as winners of similar prizes. Such qualities of character spring from an inner harmony based on humility. One of Dr. Abiy’s favorite phrases is “love always wins.” He says people of different faiths and ethnicities in his country must be able to see themselves as Ethiopians. “We can love what we are without hating who we are not,” he wrote.
Harmony was also the theme in a talk by this year’s recipient of the Templeton Prize. Now in its 50th year, this award is given for insights on humankind’s purpose. It has gone to figures such as Mother Teresa and the Dalai Lama.
The 2020 winner, Francis Collins, a geneticist and physician who is director of the National Institutes of Health, told an online audience Sept. 24 that today’s main conflicts in the United States – over COVID-19, climate change, and racism – require three solutions to “heal our land.” They are a commitment to truth and reason, a filling of “the growing spiritual void,” and a “return to our calling to love one another.”
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empower and uplift daily. By signing up, you agree to our Privacy Policy Already a subscriber? Log in to hide ads.
Like Ethiopia’s leader, Dr. Collins does not see political polarization as inevitable. He quoted from one of his recent books: “God’s creation is majestic, awesome, intricate, and beautiful – and it cannot be at war with itself.” If Americans can avoid a tendency to focus on conflict and instead “reach out beyond our own tribes,” there is an opportunity for harmony. “Blessed are the depolarizers,” he summed up, “for harmony can show us a better way.”
That idea has long been the spirit of the Nobel Peace Prize. Its recipients are acknowledged for the harmony they have achieved. But they must also be known for the harmony they have discovered within.