csmonitor--2020-07-23--In North Carolina’s Senate race, like everywhere, it’s all about Trump

“ Tillis is in the same boat as some other senators who are in trouble , ” says David McLennan , a political science professor at Meredith College in Raleigh , North Carolina .
“ They are all trying to walk this tightrope – and it ’ s a challenging tightrope to walk.
” As the president ’ s approval ratings continue to slide overall – former Vice President Joe Biden now holds a commanding lead among independents , and a widening majority of Americans disapprove of Mr. Trump ’ s handling of the pandemic – these endangered Republicans aren @ @ @ @ @ @ @ they aren ’ t exactly hugging him close , either .
With President Donald Trump , the effect may cut both ways : He inspires passionate levels of support among his party ’ s base , while also repelling many swing voters – a dynamic that has thrust Republican senators in close races , like North Carolina ’ s Thom Tillis , into an exceedingly delicate balancing act .
Split-ticket voting has become increasingly rare as the country has become more polarized along partisan lines .
In 2016 , all 34 Senate races @ @ @ @ @ @ @ won the presidential race in those states .
And while presidential candidates often have “ coattails , ” helping to elect down-ballot politicians on the strength of their own popularity , the reverse can also be true .
Patrick O ’ Brien says he ’ ll be “ first in line ” to vote for President Donald Trump again in November .
Speaking under a sweltering summer sun , the retired police officer offers multiple reasons why the president deserves to be reelected .
But when asked about Thom Tillis , North Carolina @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be on the ballot this fall , Mr. O ’ Brien pauses and strokes his gray goatee .
He then asks , “ He ’ s a Republican , right ?
” It ’ s a common reaction across Nash County , a rural area known for its sweet potatoes , where some streets have more churches than houses .
Many voters don ’ t have a strong opinion about Senator Tillis or his Democratic challenger Cal Cunningham .
Instead , the vast majority say they ’ ll vote based almost entirely on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ voting has become increasingly rare as the country has become more polarized along partisan lines .
In 2016 , all 34 Senate races were won by the same party that won the presidential race in those states .
And while presidential candidates often have “ coattails , ” helping elect down-ballot politicians on the strength of their own popularity , the reverse can also be true .
With President Trump , the effect may cut both ways : He inspires passionate levels of support among his party ’ s base , while also @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that has thrust Republican senators like Mr. Tillis into an exceedingly delicate balancing act .
As the president ’ s approval ratings continue to slide overall – former Vice President Joe Biden now holds a commanding lead among independents , and a widening majority of Americans say they disapprove of Mr. Trump ’ s handling of the pandemic – Republicans in close races aren ’ t disavowing the president .
But they aren ’ t exactly hugging him close , either .
“ Tillis is in the same boat as some other [ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , ” says David McLennan , a political science professor at Meredith College in Raleigh , and director of The Meredith Poll .
“ They are all trying to walk this tightrope – and it ’ s a challenging tightrope to walk.
” At North Carolina ’ s GOP convention in early July – a Facebook livestream event featuring politicians and party activists – Mr. Tillis sang the president ’ s praises , showed a clip of himself on stage with Mr. Trump at a rally , and spoke about the importance of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ later , in two separate COVID-19-related telephone town halls with thousands of voters on the line , Mr. Tillis never mentioned the president .
He emphasized multiple times the importance of wearing face masks to prevent the spread of COVID-19 – a matter on which Mr. Trump for months took a prominently different stance – and called the politicization of the issue “ frustrating.
” In Mr. Tillis ’ s first television ad of the general election , the senator is shown walking around a North Carolina trailer park , talking about his @ @ @ @ @ @ @ no mention of Mr. Trump .
Mr. McLennan wonders what Mr. Tillis will do if or when Mr. Trump comes to campaign in North Carolina in person .
“ Maybe in rural places Tillis will show up , but if the president shows up in Raleigh or Charlotte , maybe Tillis will have something else to do that day , like wash his hair , ” he says , with a chuckle .
He adds , “ Six months ago , Thom Tillis never would have imagined how hard this reelection was going @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the majority in the Senate they need a net gain of four seats .
Of the 23 Republican senators on the ballot this fall , six have their races rated as “ toss ups ” by the nonpartisan Cook Political Report : Colorado Sen. Cory Gardner , Georgia Sen. David Perdue , Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst , Maine Sen. Susan Collins , Montana Sen. Steve Daines , and Senator Tillis , who was moved to that column in March .
One Republican seat , held by Arizona Sen. Martha McSally , is categorized @ @ @ @ @ @ @ one Democratic seat , held by Sen. Doug Jones in Alabama , is “ lean Republican.
” All the other Democratic seats up this cycle are considered “ lean ” or “ solid ” Democrat .
In part thanks to President Trump ’ s polarizing effect , Democrats have been posting eye-popping fundraising numbers in several states .
Mr. Cunningham raised more than $ 7 million in the second quarter of 2020 , a record for North Carolina .
One of North Carolina ’ s youngest state senators in the early 2000s , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , volunteering for the U.S. Army reserves and working at local law firms .
His first television ad , titled “ Oath , ” features photographs of him in an Army uniform projected onto the side of a barn , while he talks to the camera about fighting corruption in Washington .
“ Even though Tillis tries to paint his opponent as this ultra-liberal firebrand , that ’ s not what North Carolinians think of Cal Cunningham , ” says Mr. McLennan .
Mr. Cunningham wants to expand Medicaid and protect the Affordable @ @ @ @ @ @ @ does not endorse Medicare for All .
He opposes offshore drilling , but does not support the Green New Deal .
Before COVID-19 effectively shut down in-person campaigning , he was diligently reaching out to voters across the state , says Valerie Steel , chair of the Nash County Democrats .
“ Cal Cunningham is doing the footwork , ” she says .
But while Mr. Cunningham may benefit from a more centrist profile than his party as a whole , that ’ s not necessarily the case for Republicans like Senator Tillis @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fortunes of former GOP colleagues who criticized Mr. Trump and went on to lose their own elections loom as “ cautionary tales , ” as Republican National Committee Chairwoman Ronna Romney McDaniel has put it .
Just last week , Jeff Sessions lost the primary for the Alabama Senate seat he had held for two decades before being appointed U.S. Attorney General by Mr. Trump .
After that relationship soured , Mr. Trump wound up backing Mr.
Sessions ’ opponent , former Auburn University football coach Tommy Tuberville .
Mr. Tillis has had @ @ @ @ @ @ @ February 2019 , after Mr. Trump declared a national emergency to move forward with his plan to build a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border , Mr. Tillis penned an op-ed in the Washington Post opposing the president ’ s move .
But he later reversed his position .
“ People thought he wasn ’ t supporting the president at first , ” says Nashville Mayor Brenda Brown .
“ But then he turned , so he won back favor with the people.
” More recently , as the Trump campaign tussled with North @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Cooper over how to hold the Republican National Convention safely during the pandemic , Mr. Tillis was largely supportive of the governor .
In March , Mr. Tillis wrote to Mr. Trump in support of Governor Cooper ’ s disaster declaration , and he had good things to say about the governor ’ s cautious approach to reopening the state .
The convention , scheduled to take place next month , wound up being partially moved to Jacksonville , Florida .
On Thursday , the president said he was canceling the Jacksonville event @ @ @ @ @ @ @ nuanced approach often wind up pleasing no one , says James Gailliard , the Democratic state representative for southern Nash County .
“ The thing about North Carolinians that I ’ ve learned is that they can forgive you if they disagree with you , if you can explain your decision and stick with it , ” says Representative Gailliard , adding that he has had to defend tough votes himself .
“ We don ’ t respond well to candidates who don ’ t pick a side.
” Sue Leggett , a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , says she has appreciated Mr. Tillis ’ s focus on the nitty gritty aspects of immigration policy .
But she wonders whether that kind of attention to local issues is worth much anymore .
Indeed , if it means breaking with the president , she says , it could hurt more than it helps .
“ It puts them in a precarious situation , ” says Ms. Leggett , at her farm office in Nashville .
“ They are called a moderate or weak on a subject , when they may just @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s not to say Mr. Tillis has a centrist record .
During his time in the U.S. Senate , he has voted in line with President Trump more than 93 % of the time .
And on the two issues that Nash County conservatives say matter most to them , abortion and guns , Mr. Tillis delivers : he has a 0 % score from the Planned Parenthood Action Fund and an A+ rating from the National Rifle Association .
Before he defeated Democratic incumbent Sen. Kay Hagan in 2014 , Mr. @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Carolina House of Representatives , where he helped the state House pass a law requiring ultrasounds on women seeking abortions .
( The law was later struck down by the courts . )
“ I feel positive Trump will win [ Nash County ] and I feel almost positive Tillis will win , just because we are so pro-life , we are so pro-Second Amendment , ” says Mayor Brown .
North Carolina ’ s status as a swing state is relatively recent .
Over the past 40 years , the state has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ once , narrowly voting for Barack Obama in 2008 .
In 2012 and 2016 , the state swung back to the GOP – but by some of the smallest margins in the country .
Mr. Trump ’ s “ suburban slump ” has been particularly evident in North Carolina , where he has gone from a 24-point lead among suburban voters in 2016 to a 21-point deficit in 2020 .
“ This state is really transitioning in ways that many people don ’ t realize , ” says Michael Bitzer , chair of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of Old North State Politics blog .
That transition seems to be fueling Mr. Cunningham ’ s modest lead in the Tar Heel state , which has some of the fastest growing suburbs in the country .
A recent Fox News poll found Mr. Cunningham holding a 16-point lead among suburban voters .
Nash County offers an example of another , less-noticed warning sign for the Trump and Tillis campaigns : softening support among working-class white voters , particularly women .
In 2016 , Mr. Trump won white voters without a college degree @ @ @ @ @ @ @ points in North Carolina .
Two recent Fox News polls , however , show that Mr. Trump ’ s lead among this demographic has shrunk to a 9 point advantage nationally and a 15 point lead in North Carolina .
More diverse than the country as a whole , Nash County is 41 % Black , with a median household income almost $ 12,000 less than the national average .
In 2014 , Mr. Tillis won the area by less than 2 percentage points .
In 2016 , Mr. Trump won the county @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a hairdresser and single mother , says she ’ s voted a straight Republican ticket her entire life – including in 2016 .
But she ’ s become so discouraged about the direction of the country that she doubts she ’ ll even vote at all this November .
“ People thought that Trump would make them matter , and that he would make America great again , ” says Ms. Taylor , leaning on her cart in a Walmart aisle as customers bustle pass .
“ I haven ’ t seen anyone @ @ @ @ @ @ @ life to me , my kids , and my grandkids .
I ’ ve just lost faith.
” Others suggest they ’ ll vote for Mr. Trump – and Mr. Tillis – begrudgingly .
“ I think Trump is a scumbag , ” says Karen , who works on her father ’ s sweet potato farm and declines to give her last name because “ talking politics around here is bad for business.
” “ All I see is everyone around here posting on Facebook about how bad Trump is , ” she @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Wiggly .
“ But in the end , I ’ m a conservative , ” she shrugs .
Still , some here believe that support for the president has actually grown .
“ From what I ’ ve seen , rural North Carolina has really rallied around President Trump , more than any other president that I can remember , ” says Ms. Leggett , who has lived in the area for almost her entire life .
“ And I think that support is going to trickle down for Senator Tillis.
” And @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Mr. Biden has Nash County in the bag .
While he captured the Democratic nomination in large part due to overwhelming support among Southern Black voters , enthusiasm among many African-American residents here seems lackluster .
One Black woman leaving the Piggly Wiggly simply says she “ stays out of politics , ” and another says she “ didn ’ t vote in 2016 , and doesn ’ t plan to in 2020.
” James , who installs hardwood floors for a living and declines to give his last name , offers some @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will vote in November , and you know it won ’ t be for Trump .
So yeah , I guess it ’ ll be Biden , ” he says , snacking on a bag of Cool Ranch Doritos in front of a gas station in Spring Hope .
“ I mean , it ’ s got ta get better , right ?
” he adds .
“ We all need to come together .
”

“Tillis is in the same boat as some other senators who are in trouble,” says David McLennan, a political science professor at Meredith College in Raleigh, North Carolina. “They are all trying to walk this tightrope – and it’s a challenging tightrope to walk.”
As the president’s approval ratings continue to slide overall – former Vice President Joe Biden now holds a commanding lead among independents, and a widening majority of Americans disapprove of Mr. Trump’s handling of the pandemic – these endangered Republicans aren’t disavowing the president. But they aren’t exactly hugging him close, either.
Republican senators in tight races face a difficult balancing act, trying to appeal to both staunch Trump supporters and those who have become disillusioned by his presidency.
With President Donald Trump, the effect may cut both ways: He inspires passionate levels of support among his party’s base, while also repelling many swing voters – a dynamic that has thrust Republican senators in close races, like North Carolina’s Thom Tillis, into an exceedingly delicate balancing act.
Split-ticket voting has become increasingly rare as the country has become more polarized along partisan lines. In 2016, all 34 Senate races were won by the same party that won the presidential race in those states. And while presidential candidates often have “coattails,” helping to elect down-ballot politicians on the strength of their own popularity, the reverse can also be true.
Patrick O’Brien says he’ll be “first in line” to vote for President Donald Trump again in November. Speaking under a sweltering summer sun, the retired police officer offers multiple reasons why the president deserves to be reelected.
But when asked about Thom Tillis, North Carolina’s first-term senator who will also be on the ballot this fall, Mr. O’Brien pauses and strokes his gray goatee. He then asks, “He’s a Republican, right?”
It’s a common reaction across Nash County, a rural area known for its sweet potatoes, where some streets have more churches than houses. Many voters don’t have a strong opinion about Senator Tillis or his Democratic challenger Cal Cunningham. Instead, the vast majority say they’ll vote based almost entirely on their opinions of President Trump.
Why We Wrote This Republican senators in tight races face a difficult balancing act, trying to appeal to both staunch Trump supporters and those who have become disillusioned by his presidency.
Split-ticket voting has become increasingly rare as the country has become more polarized along partisan lines. In 2016, all 34 Senate races were won by the same party that won the presidential race in those states. And while presidential candidates often have “coattails,” helping elect down-ballot politicians on the strength of their own popularity, the reverse can also be true.
With President Trump, the effect may cut both ways: He inspires passionate levels of support among his party’s base, while also repelling many swing voters – a dynamic that has thrust Republican senators like Mr. Tillis into an exceedingly delicate balancing act.
As the president’s approval ratings continue to slide overall – former Vice President Joe Biden now holds a commanding lead among independents, and a widening majority of Americans say they disapprove of Mr. Trump’s handling of the pandemic – Republicans in close races aren’t disavowing the president. But they aren’t exactly hugging him close, either.
“Tillis is in the same boat as some other [Republican] senators who are in trouble,” says David McLennan, a political science professor at Meredith College in Raleigh, and director of The Meredith Poll. “They are all trying to walk this tightrope – and it’s a challenging tightrope to walk.”
At North Carolina’s GOP convention in early July – a Facebook livestream event featuring politicians and party activists – Mr. Tillis sang the president’s praises, showed a clip of himself on stage with Mr. Trump at a rally, and spoke about the importance of getting the president reelected.
Just days later, in two separate COVID-19-related telephone town halls with thousands of voters on the line, Mr. Tillis never mentioned the president. He emphasized multiple times the importance of wearing face masks to prevent the spread of COVID-19 – a matter on which Mr. Trump for months took a prominently different stance – and called the politicization of the issue “frustrating.”
In Mr. Tillis’s first television ad of the general election, the senator is shown walking around a North Carolina trailer park, talking about his “humble” upbringing. There is no mention of Mr. Trump.
Mr. McLennan wonders what Mr. Tillis will do if or when Mr. Trump comes to campaign in North Carolina in person. “Maybe in rural places Tillis will show up, but if the president shows up in Raleigh or Charlotte, maybe Tillis will have something else to do that day, like wash his hair,” he says, with a chuckle.
He adds, “Six months ago, Thom Tillis never would have imagined how hard this reelection was going to be.”
Senate majority up for grabs
For Democrats to retake the majority in the Senate they need a net gain of four seats. Of the 23 Republican senators on the ballot this fall, six have their races rated as “toss ups” by the nonpartisan Cook Political Report: Colorado Sen. Cory Gardner, Georgia Sen. David Perdue, Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst, Maine Sen. Susan Collins, Montana Sen. Steve Daines, and Senator Tillis, who was moved to that column in March. One Republican seat, held by Arizona Sen. Martha McSally, is categorized as “lean Democrat,” while one Democratic seat, held by Sen. Doug Jones in Alabama, is “lean Republican.” All the other Democratic seats up this cycle are considered “lean” or “solid” Democrat.
In part thanks to President Trump’s polarizing effect, Democrats have been posting eye-popping fundraising numbers in several states. Mr. Cunningham raised more than $7 million in the second quarter of 2020, a record for North Carolina.
One of North Carolina’s youngest state senators in the early 2000s, Mr. Cunningham left politics for a while, volunteering for the U.S. Army reserves and working at local law firms. His first television ad, titled “Oath,” features photographs of him in an Army uniform projected onto the side of a barn, while he talks to the camera about fighting corruption in Washington.
“Even though Tillis tries to paint his opponent as this ultra-liberal firebrand, that’s not what North Carolinians think of Cal Cunningham,” says Mr. McLennan. Mr. Cunningham wants to expand Medicaid and protect the Affordable Care Act, for example, but does not endorse Medicare for All. He opposes offshore drilling, but does not support the Green New Deal.
Before COVID-19 effectively shut down in-person campaigning, he was diligently reaching out to voters across the state, says Valerie Steel, chair of the Nash County Democrats. “Cal Cunningham is doing the footwork,” she says.
But while Mr. Cunningham may benefit from a more centrist profile than his party as a whole, that’s not necessarily the case for Republicans like Senator Tillis.
For many Republicans, the political fortunes of former GOP colleagues who criticized Mr. Trump and went on to lose their own elections loom as “cautionary tales,” as Republican National Committee Chairwoman Ronna Romney McDaniel has put it. Just last week, Jeff Sessions lost the primary for the Alabama Senate seat he had held for two decades before being appointed U.S. Attorney General by Mr. Trump. After that relationship soured, Mr. Trump wound up backing Mr. Sessions’ opponent, former Auburn University football coach Tommy Tuberville.
Mr. Tillis has had some back-and-forth with the president. In February 2019, after Mr. Trump declared a national emergency to move forward with his plan to build a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border, Mr. Tillis penned an op-ed in the Washington Post opposing the president’s move. But he later reversed his position.
Story Hinckley/The Christian Science Monitor View caption Hide caption Nashville Mayor Brenda Brown (left) and Nashville Council member Lynne Hobbs say rural North Carolina largely cares about two issues: abortion and Second Amendment rights. "So that would definitely throw the majority of people being [for] Trump and Tillis," says Mayor Brown.
“People thought he wasn’t supporting the president at first,” says Nashville Mayor Brenda Brown. “But then he turned, so he won back favor with the people.”
More recently, as the Trump campaign tussled with North Carolina’s Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper over how to hold the Republican National Convention safely during the pandemic, Mr. Tillis was largely supportive of the governor. In March, Mr. Tillis wrote to Mr. Trump in support of Governor Cooper’s disaster declaration, and he had good things to say about the governor’s cautious approach to reopening the state. The convention, scheduled to take place next month, wound up being partially moved to Jacksonville, Florida. On Thursday, the president said he was canceling the Jacksonville event.
Politicians who try to take a nuanced approach often wind up pleasing no one, says James Gailliard, the Democratic state representative for southern Nash County.
“The thing about North Carolinians that I’ve learned is that they can forgive you if they disagree with you, if you can explain your decision and stick with it,” says Representative Gailliard, adding that he has had to defend tough votes himself. “We don’t respond well to candidates who don’t pick a side.”
Sue Leggett, a Nash County Commissioner and first-generation farm owner, says she has appreciated Mr. Tillis’s focus on the nitty gritty aspects of immigration policy. But she wonders whether that kind of attention to local issues is worth much anymore. Indeed, if it means breaking with the president, she says, it could hurt more than it helps.
“It puts them in a precarious situation,” says Ms. Leggett, at her farm office in Nashville. “They are called a moderate or weak on a subject, when they may just be a real common-sense person.”
That’s not to say Mr. Tillis has a centrist record. During his time in the U.S. Senate, he has voted in line with President Trump more than 93% of the time. And on the two issues that Nash County conservatives say matter most to them, abortion and guns, Mr. Tillis delivers: he has a 0% score from the Planned Parenthood Action Fund and an A+ rating from the National Rifle Association.
Before he defeated Democratic incumbent Sen. Kay Hagan in 2014, Mr. Tillis served as Speaker of the North Carolina House of Representatives, where he helped the state House pass a law requiring ultrasounds on women seeking abortions. (The law was later struck down by the courts.)
“I feel positive Trump will win [Nash County] and I feel almost positive Tillis will win, just because we are so pro-life, we are so pro-Second Amendment,” says Mayor Brown.
A state in transition
North Carolina’s status as a swing state is relatively recent. Over the past 40 years, the state has only gone for a Democratic presidential candidate once, narrowly voting for Barack Obama in 2008. In 2012 and 2016, the state swung back to the GOP – but by some of the smallest margins in the country.
Story Hinckley/The Christian Science Monitor View caption Hide caption "Thom Tillis has always been a real common sense kind of guy, very in touch with rural North Carolina," says Sue Leggett, a Nash County commissioner and first generation farmer. She says support for President Trump in Nash County has only grown over the past four years, with conservative voters appreciating how he works to "keep traditional values alive."
Mr. Trump’s “suburban slump” has been particularly evident in North Carolina, where he has gone from a 24-point lead among suburban voters in 2016 to a 21-point deficit in 2020.
“This state is really transitioning in ways that many people don’t realize,” says Michael Bitzer, chair of political science at Catawba College and creator of Old North State Politics blog.
That transition seems to be fueling Mr. Cunningham’s modest lead in the Tar Heel state, which has some of the fastest growing suburbs in the country. A recent Fox News poll found Mr. Cunningham holding a 16-point lead among suburban voters.
Nash County offers an example of another, less-noticed warning sign for the Trump and Tillis campaigns: softening support among working-class white voters, particularly women.
In 2016, Mr. Trump won white voters without a college degree by 37 points nationally and by 44 points in North Carolina. Two recent Fox News polls, however, show that Mr. Trump’s lead among this demographic has shrunk to a 9 point advantage nationally and a 15 point lead in North Carolina.
More diverse than the country as a whole, Nash County is 41% Black, with a median household income almost $12,000 less than the national average. In 2014, Mr. Tillis won the area by less than 2 percentage points. In 2016, Mr. Trump won the county by 84 votes.
Kim Taylor, a hairdresser and single mother, says she’s voted a straight Republican ticket her entire life – including in 2016. But she’s become so discouraged about the direction of the country that she doubts she’ll even vote at all this November.
“People thought that Trump would make them matter, and that he would make America great again,” says Ms. Taylor, leaning on her cart in a Walmart aisle as customers bustle pass. “I haven’t seen anyone come around who could give a better life to me, my kids, and my grandkids. I’ve just lost faith.”
Others suggest they’ll vote for Mr. Trump – and Mr. Tillis – begrudgingly. “I think Trump is a scumbag,” says Karen, who works on her father’s sweet potato farm and declines to give her last name because “talking politics around here is bad for business.”
“All I see is everyone around here posting on Facebook about how bad Trump is,” she says, while shopping at the Piggly Wiggly. “But in the end, I’m a conservative,” she shrugs.
Still, some here believe that support for the president has actually grown.
“From what I’ve seen, rural North Carolina has really rallied around President Trump, more than any other president that I can remember,” says Ms. Leggett, who has lived in the area for almost her entire life. “And I think that support is going to trickle down for Senator Tillis.”
And it’s far from clear that Mr. Biden has Nash County in the bag. While he captured the Democratic nomination in large part due to overwhelming support among Southern Black voters, enthusiasm among many African-American residents here seems lackluster. One Black woman leaving the Piggly Wiggly simply says she “stays out of politics,” and another says she “didn’t vote in 2016, and doesn’t plan to in 2020.”
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James, who installs hardwood floors for a living and declines to give his last name, offers some of the strongest support. “I will vote in November, and you know it won’t be for Trump. So yeah, I guess it’ll be Biden,” he says, snacking on a bag of Cool Ranch Doritos in front of a gas station in Spring Hope.
“I mean, it’s gotta get better, right?” he adds. “We all need to come together.”


csmonitor--2020-07-23--With Siberia in flames, climate change hits home for Russia

“ What we are witnessing is not just a rate of warming over Siberia and the Arctic that ’ s two or three times the global average , but changes in atmospheric patterns , ” says Valentina Khan of the Hydrometeorological Research Center of the Russian Federation .
“ There is the likelihood in future of more extreme weather events , which will be greater in their frequency and duration.
” Meanwhile , high temperatures are accelerating the melting of Russia ’ s 17 million square miles of permafrost above the Arctic Circle .
That has caused at least one @ @ @ @ @ @ @ integrity of the entire region ’ s infrastructure , including pipelines , roads , and housing .
The ongoing forest fires are estimated to have so far released 56 million tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere – more than the annual emissions of some midsized European countries .
And the toxic haze from the fires has reportedly settled over several towns , aggravating health conditions for many inhabitants .
This year has brought unprecedented forest fires to Siberia , devastating an area the size of the state of Washington in Russia 's @ @ @ @ @ @ @ seldom seen summer temperatures above 70 degrees Fahrenheit have been sweltering under a hot season that began a month early .
Russia ’ s enormous but sparsely populated Asian landmass is experiencing record-breaking temperatures , the fifth year in a row it has done so .
But this year has brought unprecedented forest fires that have devastated a territory the size of the state of Washington , and blanketed vast areas with thick air pollution .
Cities that have seldom seen summer temperatures above 70 degrees Fahrenheit have been sweltering under a hot @ @ @ @ @ @ @ year , and has been consistently delivering daily temperatures several degrees above average .
Scientists say Siberia is warming at twice the global average – leading to extreme weather events , severe environmental deterioration , and serious complications for human habitation .
And , they warn , it is a climate catastrophe that might be just beginning .
“ If these temperatures repeat themselves next year , the situation on the southern fringe of Siberian forests is going to become critical , ” says Nadezhda Chebakova , a researcher at the Sukachev Institute @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the long run , something has to be done about the emissions of greenhouse gases.
” The ongoing forest fires are estimated to have so far released 56 million tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere – more than the annual emissions of some midsized European countries .
And the toxic haze from the fires has reportedly settled over several towns , aggravating health conditions – and moods – for many inhabitants who are still under obligatory coronavirus lockdown .
Meanwhile , high temperatures are accelerating the melting of Russia ’ s 17 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Arctic Circle .
That has caused at least one disastrous industrial accident , and threatens the integrity of the entire region ’ s infrastructure , including pipelines , roads , and housing .
The receding permafrost has exposed copious remains of long-extinct woolly mammoths , frozen for thousands of years beneath the tundra , sparking worries of a new “ gold rush ” to harvest the prehistoric beasts ’ valuable ivory tusks .
But the melting earth also threatens to disgorge huge amounts of greenhouse gases , such as methane , that have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ history , threatening incalculable future consequences .
The near-complete disappearance of sea ice off Russia ’ s northern coast this year has proved an economic boon , with shipping companies predicting that year-round navigation through the once icebound Northeast Passage might soon become possible .
For over a decade Russia has been preparing to exploit the vast trove of resources opening up as the Arctic ice pack recedes and has been steadily building infrastructure , including military bases , to promote that effort .
But scientists fret that the declining albedo , or @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will only create a negative feedback loop that accelerates the melt-off in coming years .
“ These phenomena are unprecedented , ” says Valentina Khan , deputy director of the Hydrometeorological Research Center of the Russian Federation , part of the national weather service .
“ What we are witnessing is not just a rate of warming over Siberia and the Arctic that ’ s two or three times the global average , but changes in atmospheric patterns .
There is the likelihood in future of more extreme weather events , which will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” “ We have been warning about this ” A team of international researchers has concluded that this year ’ s Siberian heat wave would have been virtually impossible without man-made climate change .
It ’ s a view the Russian government has been slow to accept , but most Russian scientists now admit that it must be deemed a permanent factor .
“ What we ’ ve seen here in central Siberia is an absolutely abnormal April , with temperatures above 30 degrees Celsius [ 86 F ] , and in general @ @ @ @ @ @ @ average , ” says Dr. Chebakova .
“ It ’ s pretty clear that we are looking at a general warming trend , and 90 % of Russian scientists believe it is caused by human activity.
” Environmentalists are beside themselves with dread and frustration .
“ We have been warning about this for at least two decades , and successive Russian governments have failed to take heed , ” says Vladimir Slivyak , co-chair of Ecodefense , one of Russia ’ s oldest – and perennially embattled – environmental organizations .
“ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ they are still in denial .
Of course there is much more reliable information about global warming and the growing environmental catastrophe in the Russian media than there was 10 years ago , and scientists are talking about it more .
But we still don ’ t hear much from government officials .
“ What we need to see , urgently , is the creation of an adaptation plan .
Two decades ago , we might have concentrated on reducing greenhouse gases .
But now we have a warming process that ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ going to be with us for some time , ” he says .
“ For instance , we need proper management of forests , with better fire prevention and firefighting capacities , yet the numbers of people doing these things have been steadily reduced .
The main approach in play right now appears to be to wait for autumn , for the rains to come .
But what about next year ?
” The government ’ s lack of preparedness became clear at the end of May after melting permafrost caused fuel tanks @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to the huge NorNickel mining and smelting company , near the city of Norilsk in Siberia ’ s far north .
The spill released 20,000 tons of diesel fuel into the soil and nearby rivers , creating what local activists described as an “ environmental catastrophe.
” A few days later , President Vladimir Putin declared a state of emergency in Norilsk , but the damage to the delicate northern ecosystem seems set to persist for decades .
“ The main problem is a lack of official responsibility , ” says Vassily Yablokov @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
“ The dangers of melting permafrost have been obvious for years .
But big business cares only about maintaining the status quo , exploiting nature in profitable ways .
So they never invested in prevention .
Then they tried to cover up the accident , and failed to act swiftly to contain the damage .
That ’ s why we can say that the human factor is the key problem here.
” Mr. Slivyak of Ecodefense says the reason for the Russian government ’ s reluctance to face and adapt to the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it would mean calling into question Russia ’ s basic economic strategy .
“ We have had the same strategy for the past 50 years , which is to ramp up extraction of fossil fuels , mostly for export , ” he says .
“ Russian officials may be learning to talk the talk about climate change at international forums , but whenever issues of economic development come up , the chief goals are always more oil , gas , and coal .
They are just not ready to accept that without radical @ @ @ @ @ @ @ worse , much worse .
”

“What we are witnessing is not just a rate of warming over Siberia and the Arctic that’s two or three times the global average, but changes in atmospheric patterns,” says Valentina Khan of the Hydrometeorological Research Center of the Russian Federation. “There is the likelihood in future of more extreme weather events, which will be greater in their frequency and duration.”
Meanwhile, high temperatures are accelerating the melting of Russia’s 17 million square miles of permafrost above the Arctic Circle. That has caused at least one disastrous industrial accident, and threatens the integrity of the entire region’s infrastructure, including pipelines, roads, and housing.
Siberia may be best known for being cold. But this summer, large parts of it are in flames – a state of affairs that Russian scientists say is a byproduct of climate change, and is likely to end up accelerating the process.
The ongoing forest fires are estimated to have so far released 56 million tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere – more than the annual emissions of some midsized European countries. And the toxic haze from the fires has reportedly settled over several towns, aggravating health conditions for many inhabitants.
This year has brought unprecedented forest fires to Siberia, devastating an area the size of the state of Washington in Russia's vast Asian landmass. Cities that have seldom seen summer temperatures above 70 degrees Fahrenheit have been sweltering under a hot season that began a month early.
Siberia is burning.
Russia’s enormous but sparsely populated Asian landmass is experiencing record-breaking temperatures, the fifth year in a row it has done so.
Why We Wrote This Siberia may be best known for being cold. But this summer, large parts of it are in flames – a state of affairs that Russian scientists say is a byproduct of climate change, and is likely to end up accelerating the process.
But this year has brought unprecedented forest fires that have devastated a territory the size of the state of Washington, and blanketed vast areas with thick air pollution. Cities that have seldom seen summer temperatures above 70 degrees Fahrenheit have been sweltering under a hot season that began a month early this year, and has been consistently delivering daily temperatures several degrees above average.
Scientists say Siberia is warming at twice the global average – leading to extreme weather events, severe environmental deterioration, and serious complications for human habitation. And, they warn, it is a climate catastrophe that might be just beginning.
“If these temperatures repeat themselves next year, the situation on the southern fringe of Siberian forests is going to become critical,” says Nadezhda Chebakova, a researcher at the Sukachev Institute of Forest in Krasnoyarsk. “In the long run, something has to be done about the emissions of greenhouse gases.”
“Unprecedented” phenomena
The ongoing forest fires are estimated to have so far released 56 million tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere – more than the annual emissions of some midsized European countries. And the toxic haze from the fires has reportedly settled over several towns, aggravating health conditions – and moods – for many inhabitants who are still under obligatory coronavirus lockdown.
Meanwhile, high temperatures are accelerating the melting of Russia’s 17 million square miles of permafrost above the Arctic Circle. That has caused at least one disastrous industrial accident, and threatens the integrity of the entire region’s infrastructure, including pipelines, roads, and housing.
Russian Emergencies Ministry/Reuters View caption Hide caption Russian officials, like these members of the Russian Emergencies Ministry in the Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Region, are working to contain the fires. But scientists and activists say the government needs to take more preventive action as well.
The receding permafrost has exposed copious remains of long-extinct woolly mammoths, frozen for thousands of years beneath the tundra, sparking worries of a new “gold rush” to harvest the prehistoric beasts’ valuable ivory tusks. But the melting earth also threatens to disgorge huge amounts of greenhouse gases, such as methane, that have been locked in the ice throughout human history, threatening incalculable future consequences.
The near-complete disappearance of sea ice off Russia’s northern coast this year has proved an economic boon, with shipping companies predicting that year-round navigation through the once icebound Northeast Passage might soon become possible. For over a decade Russia has been preparing to exploit the vast trove of resources opening up as the Arctic ice pack recedes and has been steadily building infrastructure, including military bases, to promote that effort. But scientists fret that the declining albedo, or reflectivity, of the vanishing ice sheets will only create a positive feedback loop that accelerates the melt-off in coming years.
“These phenomena are unprecedented,” says Valentina Khan, deputy director of the Hydrometeorological Research Center of the Russian Federation, part of the national weather service. “What we are witnessing is not just a rate of warming over Siberia and the Arctic that’s two or three times the global average, but changes in atmospheric patterns. There is the likelihood in future of more extreme weather events, which will be greater in their frequency and duration.”
“We have been warning about this”
A team of international researchers has concluded that this year’s Siberian heat wave would have been virtually impossible without man-made climate change. It’s a view the Russian government has been slow to accept, but most Russian scientists now admit that it must be deemed a permanent factor.
“What we’ve seen here in central Siberia is an absolutely abnormal April, with temperatures above 30 degrees Celsius [86 F], and in general temperatures about 2 degrees above the 100-year average,” says Dr. Chebakova. “It’s pretty clear that we are looking at a general warming trend, and 90% of Russian scientists believe it is caused by human activity.”
Environmentalists are beside themselves with dread and frustration.
“We have been warning about this for at least two decades, and successive Russian governments have failed to take heed,” says Vladimir Slivyak, co-chair of Ecodefense, one of Russia’s oldest – and perennially embattled – environmental organizations. “Now it’s happening, and they are still in denial. Of course there is much more reliable information about global warming and the growing environmental catastrophe in the Russian media than there was 10 years ago, and scientists are talking about it more. But we still don’t hear much from government officials.
“What we need to see, urgently, is the creation of an adaptation plan. Two decades ago, we might have concentrated on reducing greenhouse gases. But now we have a warming process that’s well underway, and it’s going to be with us for some time,” he says. “For instance, we need proper management of forests, with better fire prevention and firefighting capacities, yet the numbers of people doing these things have been steadily reduced. The main approach in play right now appears to be to wait for autumn, for the rains to come. But what about next year?”
“A lack of official responsibility”
The government’s lack of preparedness became clear at the end of May after melting permafrost caused fuel tanks to rupture at a power station belonging to the huge NorNickel mining and smelting company, near the city of Norilsk in Siberia’s far north. The spill released 20,000 tons of diesel fuel into the soil and nearby rivers, creating what local activists described as an “environmental catastrophe.” A few days later, President Vladimir Putin declared a state of emergency in Norilsk, but the damage to the delicate northern ecosystem seems set to persist for decades.
“The main problem is a lack of official responsibility,” says Vassily Yablokov, climate project manager at Greenpeace Russia. “The dangers of melting permafrost have been obvious for years. But big business cares only about maintaining the status quo, exploiting nature in profitable ways. So they never invested in prevention. Then they tried to cover up the accident, and failed to act swiftly to contain the damage. That’s why we can say that the human factor is the key problem here.”
Mr. Slivyak of Ecodefense says the reason for the Russian government’s reluctance to face and adapt to the realities of long-term climate change is that it would mean calling into question Russia’s basic economic strategy.
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“We have had the same strategy for the past 50 years, which is to ramp up extraction of fossil fuels, mostly for export,” he says. “Russian officials may be learning to talk the talk about climate change at international forums, but whenever issues of economic development come up, the chief goals are always more oil, gas, and coal. They are just not ready to accept that without radical adaptations, this is going to get worse, much worse.”
Editor's note: This story has been updated to correctly characterize the positive feedback loop driven by declining albedo.


csmonitor--2020-07-23--Why the world counts on honest stats in a pandemic

Compared with other events in history , the COVID-19 pandemic may be the one that has been the most widely scrutinized in the shortest span of time .
People are hungry for data about the virus ’ s origins , effects , and remedies .
“ It ’ s only in moments of crisis that we begin to pay attention [ to data ] , ” writes Arunabh Ghosh , a Harvard professor and author of a new book about statistics in China .
Yet this hunger for information has also led to a demand for honesty and transparency in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Can test trials for a new vaccine be trusted ?
Is my employer flying blind on safety data in reopening the workplace ?
Bad data can lead to panic or a false sense of security .
In short , people expect accurate analysis of both the threat and the solutions to help lessen their fear of vulnerability .
“ It is in moments of disaster response and relief that the values of open government can come under intense pressure , but can also meaningfully contribute to better outcomes , ” states the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the world , officials are on notice to be more forthcoming as the pandemic endures .
In a few places , such as Singapore , Taiwan , and South Korea , leaders have been praised for their transparency during the crisis .
In China , officials from the World Health Organization arrived in Wuhan July 13 to start an investigation of COVID-19 ’ s origins .
Beijing has suppressed many of those who have challenged its changing narratives about the virus ’ s beginnings .
To rebuild lost trust , China can grant @ @ @ @ @ @ @ international investigators .
In the United States , President Donald Trump has been criticized for a July 10 decision to set up a “ coronavirus data hub ” in the Department of Health and Human Services .
It would replace data collection by the more respected Centers for Disease Control and Prevention .
Unease about the federal reporting structure – as well as Mr. Trump ’ s leadership in general – has put pressure on states to improve their data .
A July 21 report from Resolve to Save Lives , a nonprofit @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , found states largely failing in collecting and publishing data on 15 “ essential indicators ” of COVID-19 .
For nine of the 15 indicators , more than half of states were not reporting at all .
Yet another study by The COVID Tracking Project found on the whole , the quality of state data across 16 metrics “ has improved dramatically.
” The median grade for states has gone from B to A over the past three months .
Public demand for data is driving a new accountability in institutions .
Honesty @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
It helps garner support during the long struggle against COVID-19 .
The people and their leaders must be partners in truth telling .

Compared with other events in history, the COVID-19 pandemic may be the one that has been the most widely scrutinized in the shortest span of time. People are hungry for data about the virus’s origins, effects, and remedies. “It’s only in moments of crisis that we begin to pay attention [to data],” writes Arunabh Ghosh, a Harvard professor and author of a new book about statistics in China.
Yet this hunger for information has also led to a demand for honesty and transparency in the data collected and used by authorities. Can test trials for a new vaccine be trusted? Is my employer flying blind on safety data in reopening the workplace? Bad data can lead to panic or a false sense of security. In short, people expect accurate analysis of both the threat and the solutions to help lessen their fear of vulnerability.
“It is in moments of disaster response and relief that the values of open government can come under intense pressure, but can also meaningfully contribute to better outcomes,” states the international group Open Government Partnership.
Around the world, officials are on notice to be more forthcoming as the pandemic endures. In a few places, such as Singapore, Taiwan, and South Korea, leaders have been praised for their transparency during the crisis. In China, officials from the World Health Organization arrived in Wuhan July 13 to start an investigation of COVID-19’s origins. Beijing has suppressed many of those who have challenged its changing narratives about the virus’s beginnings. To rebuild lost trust, China can grant unfettered access for the WHO and other international investigators.
In the United States, President Donald Trump has been criticized for a July 10 decision to set up a “coronavirus data hub” in the Department of Health and Human Services. It would replace data collection by the more respected Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Unease about the federal reporting structure – as well as Mr. Trump’s leadership in general – has put pressure on states to improve their data.
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A July 21 report from Resolve to Save Lives, a nonprofit led by former CDC chief Tom Frieden, found states largely failing in collecting and publishing data on 15 “essential indicators” of COVID-19. For nine of the 15 indicators, more than half of states were not reporting at all. Yet another study by The COVID Tracking Project found on the whole, the quality of state data across 16 metrics “has improved dramatically.” The median grade for states has gone from B to A over the past three months.
Public demand for data is driving a new accountability in institutions. Honesty is a powerful disinfectant against the virus. It helps garner support during the long struggle against COVID-19. The people and their leaders must be partners in truth telling.


csmonitor--2020-07-23--China pushes Huawei, Washington pulls another way

Now all eyes are on Europe , where governments would prefer not to antagonize China but do not want to risk U.S. wrath either .
But as Beijing and Washington battle for global technological leadership , neither of them is likely to leave much room for other countries to steer a noncommittal course .
The U.S. government is trying to stymie Huawei ’ s international spread as part of its broader campaign to constrain China : In today ’ s world , technological primacy means geopolitical dominance .
Several U.S. allies have decided to ban or phase out Huawei equipment @ @ @ @ @ @ @ but many other countries – especially in Asia , Africa , and Latin America – are buying from Huawei , not least because it is cheaper than the competition .
Huawei , the top telecom equipment-maker in the world , has become a poster child for China ’ s technological prowess , and for President Xi Jinping ’ s ambition to put China at the cutting edge of artificial intelligence , robots , and self-driving cars .
When the British government decided last week to ban all equipment made by the Chinese firm @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 5G network , it did so in large part because Washington wanted it to .
Sometimes a single decision by a single government can illuminate an important trend on the world stage .
And so it proved this past week , with the spotlight falling on China ’ s drive to displace the United States as world leader in technology and telecommunications , and on U.S. efforts to thwart Beijing ’ s ambition .
That clash was not the only reason the British government decided to bar the giant Chinese company Huawei from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ extension of its earlier , more limited move to restrict the company ’ s role .
Other political and economic calculations were also in play , not least Britain ’ s need to forge a new international identity and role now that it has left the European Union .
But what finally tipped the scales toward a tougher Huawei decision was pressure , private and public , from Washington .
There are multiple points of contention between the U.S. and China in what some pundits are calling the potential start of a new @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Huawei decision was a dramatic reminder of the importance of the competition for technological primacy .
It was also a sign of why this cold war , if it happens , will be different from the decadeslong rivalry with a decidedly more low-tech Soviet Union .
In most fields , the U.S. retains a clear lead in technology and innovation .
With its universities , research institutions , and technology incubators – as well as market-shaping companies , from Apple and Microsoft to Amazon and Tesla – this seems unlikely to change in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ founded in the late 1980s , has become a leading world player .
By 2012 , it had overtaken Sweden ’ s Ericsson as the top manufacturer of telecommunications equipment .
Two years ago , it leapfrogged Apple to become the world ’ s second-largest smartphone maker .
Just last month , it surpassed South Korea ’ s Samsung to claim the No .
1 spot .
Though nominally a private company , Huawei has benefited from billions of dollars in state credits .
Its 5G kit is regarded as being at least @ @ @ @ @ @ @ or other Western firms .
And with its government patronage , it has also been able to undercut competitors on price .
Huawei is one of dozens of increasingly successful Chinese technology companies .
And it is playing a starring role in President Xi Jinping ’ s explicit strategy to position China at the cutting edge of future technological applications – not just in telecommunications but in areas like artificial intelligence , electric and self-driving cars , robots , and space travel .
In pressing Britain and other countries to exclude Huawei equipment @ @ @ @ @ @ @ raised genuine security concerns , warning that Chinese-built networks could hide “ back doors ” through which sensitive data could be passed on to Beijing .
Under Chinese law , Huawei must share information with the country ’ s security services if asked to do so .
But with 21st-century economies so dependent on technology , it ’ s the potential geopolitical implications of Chinese advances that have been preoccupying Washington , especially since China already exerts enormous influence on international trade , investment , and development .
Britain has now joined a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ U.S. , including Australia , New Zealand , and Japan , that have decided to ban or phase out Huawei equipment .
Canada has been holding off , apparently afraid that a negative decision could provoke Beijing into worsening the situation for two Canadians it has detained since Canada held a Huawei executive wanted by the U.S. authorities .
What ’ s less clear , looking ahead , is whether the U.S. will , or can , exert similar sway on other traditional allies as they make their Huawei decisions .
In many @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Huawei ’ s favor .
These include states across Asia , the Arab world , Africa , and Latin America where China has won financial and political influence through its Belt and Road program of loans and investment in infrastructure projects .
Yet most closely watched in the months ahead will be what happens in the EU , the world ’ s largest trading bloc , which has long had close ties with the U.S. but where China has been building an increasingly important network of economic ties in recent years .
Washington @ @ @ @ @ @ @ very least , EU countries strictly limit Huawei participation in 5G , especially since European firms like Ericsson and the Finnish company Nokia could provide alternative solutions .
But a number of Eastern European countries , and Italy , have signed on to Belt and Road investment plans and may well be reluctant to exclude Huawei .
The key voice is likely to be Germany ’ s .
It is not yet clear which way Europe ’ s largest economy will go : Chancellor Angela Merkel has seemed leery of having to choose @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the U.S. ( Germany ’ s biggest trade partner ) and China ( its third biggest ) have become more adversarial .
But as Washington and Beijing battle for global technological leadership , neither of them may leave much room for other countries to steer a noncommittal course .

Now all eyes are on Europe, where governments would prefer not to antagonize China but do not want to risk U.S. wrath either. But as Beijing and Washington battle for global technological leadership, neither of them is likely to leave much room for other countries to steer a noncommittal course.
The U.S. government is trying to stymie Huawei’s international spread as part of its broader campaign to constrain China: In today’s world, technological primacy means geopolitical dominance. Several U.S. allies have decided to ban or phase out Huawei equipment, Australia and Japan among them, but many other countries – especially in Asia, Africa, and Latin America – are buying from Huawei, not least because it is cheaper than the competition.
Huawei, the top telecom equipment-maker in the world, has become a poster child for China’s technological prowess, and for President Xi Jinping’s ambition to put China at the cutting edge of artificial intelligence, robots, and self-driving cars.
When the British government decided last week to ban all equipment made by the Chinese firm Huawei from the United Kingdom’s 5G network, it did so in large part because Washington wanted it to.
Sometimes a single decision by a single government can illuminate an important trend on the world stage. And so it proved this past week, with the spotlight falling on China’s drive to displace the United States as world leader in technology and telecommunications, and on U.S. efforts to thwart Beijing’s ambition.
That clash was not the only reason the British government decided to bar the giant Chinese company Huawei from its forthcoming 5G network – a major extension of its earlier, more limited move to restrict the company’s role. Other political and economic calculations were also in play, not least Britain’s need to forge a new international identity and role now that it has left the European Union.
But what finally tipped the scales toward a tougher Huawei decision was pressure, private and public, from Washington.
Why We Wrote This Today, technological primacy means geopolitical dominance. Washington is pressuring allies to ban Chinese 5G equipment. Britain just complied. Will others follow?
There are multiple points of contention between the U.S. and China in what some pundits are calling the potential start of a new cold war. Yet Britain’s Huawei decision was a dramatic reminder of the importance of the competition for technological primacy. It was also a sign of why this cold war, if it happens, will be different from the decadeslong rivalry with a decidedly more low-tech Soviet Union.
China plays catch-up
In most fields, the U.S. retains a clear lead in technology and innovation. With its universities, research institutions, and technology incubators – as well as market-shaping companies, from Apple and Microsoft to Amazon and Tesla – this seems unlikely to change in the immediate future.
But Huawei, founded in the late 1980s, has become a leading world player. By 2012, it had overtaken Sweden’s Ericsson as the top manufacturer of telecommunications equipment. Two years ago, it leapfrogged Apple to become the world’s second-largest smartphone maker. Just last month, it surpassed South Korea’s Samsung to claim the No. 1 spot.
Though nominally a private company, Huawei has benefited from billions of dollars in state credits. Its 5G kit is regarded as being at least as good as that made by Ericsson or other Western firms. And with its government patronage, it has also been able to undercut competitors on price.
Huawei is one of dozens of increasingly successful Chinese technology companies. And it is playing a starring role in President Xi Jinping’s explicit strategy to position China at the cutting edge of future technological applications – not just in telecommunications but in areas like artificial intelligence, electric and self-driving cars, robots, and space travel.
In pressing Britain and other countries to exclude Huawei equipment from their 5G networks, Washington has raised genuine security concerns, warning that Chinese-built networks could hide “back doors” through which sensitive data could be passed on to Beijing. Under Chinese law, Huawei must share information with the country’s security services if asked to do so.
But with 21st-century economies so dependent on technology, it’s the potential geopolitical implications of Chinese advances that have been preoccupying Washington, especially since China already exerts enormous influence on international trade, investment, and development.
Belt and Road relationships
Britain has now joined a group of countries traditionally close to the U.S., including Australia, New Zealand, and Japan, that have decided to ban or phase out Huawei equipment. Canada has been holding off, apparently afraid that a negative decision could provoke Beijing into worsening the situation for two Canadians it has detained since Canada held a Huawei executive wanted by the U.S. authorities.
What’s less clear, looking ahead, is whether the U.S. will, or can, exert similar sway on other traditional allies as they make their Huawei decisions. In many countries, the decision is going in Huawei’s favor. These include states across Asia, the Arab world, Africa, and Latin America where China has won financial and political influence through its Belt and Road program of loans and investment in infrastructure projects.
Yet most closely watched in the months ahead will be what happens in the EU, the world’s largest trading bloc, which has long had close ties with the U.S. but where China has been building an increasingly important network of economic ties in recent years.
Washington will be hoping that, at the very least, EU countries strictly limit Huawei participation in 5G, especially since European firms like Ericsson and the Finnish company Nokia could provide alternative solutions. But a number of Eastern European countries, and Italy, have signed on to Belt and Road investment plans and may well be reluctant to exclude Huawei.
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The key voice is likely to be Germany’s. It is not yet clear which way Europe’s largest economy will go: Chancellor Angela Merkel has seemed leery of having to choose sides as diplomatic and trade relations between the U.S. (Germany’s biggest trade partner) and China (its third biggest) have become more adversarial.
But as Washington and Beijing battle for global technological leadership, neither of them may leave much room for other countries to steer a noncommittal course.


csmonitor--2020-07-23--White House drops tax cut, GOP unveils $1 trillion aid package

The White House has dropped a bid to cut Social Security payroll taxes as Republicans unveil a $ 1 trillion COVID-19 rescue package on Thursday , ceding to opposition to the idea among top Senate allies .
“ It won ’ t be in the base bill , '' said Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin , speaking on CNBC about the payroll tax cut , killing the idea for now .
The legislation , set to be released Thursday morning by Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell , R-Ky. , comes amid alarming developments on the virus crisis .
Mr. McConnell 's @ @ @ @ @ @ @ talks with top Capitol Hill Democrats in a negotiation that could be rockier than talks in March that produced a $ 2 trillion rescue package .
GOP senators and President Donald Trump are at odds over priorities , and Democrats say it ’ s not nearly enough to stem the health crisis , reopen schools , and extend aid to jobless Americans .
The Republican leader is expected to deliver a speech shortly after the Senate opens , and then senators will begin rolling out their separate parts of the package , according @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the plans .
The centerpiece of the GOP effort remains Mr. McConnell ’ s liability shield to protect businesses , schools , and others from coronavirus-related lawsuits .
The package is not expected to provide any new money for cash-strapped states and cities , which are clamoring for funds , but Republicans propose giving $ 105 billion to help schools reopen and $ 15 billion for child care centers to create safe environments for youngsters during the pandemic .
But the GOP measure forges an immediate agreement with Democrats on another round of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The $ 600 weekly unemployment benefit boost that is expiring Friday will be reduced , likely to $ 200 , and ultimately adjusted according to state jobless benefits rates .
Some Republicans say the boost is a disincentive to work , but others prefer a phased approach .
Some Republicans are pressing for a temporary extension of the current benefit if the talks drag .
“ We can not allow there to be a cliff in unemployment insurance given we ’ re still at about 11 % unemployment , ” said Sen @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bill is likely to be silent on the potential housing crisis as a federal eviction moratorium on millions of rental units expires in days .
One key holdup in the talks was Mr. Trump ’ s push for a payroll tax cut , according to a Republican granted anonymity to discuss the private talks .
Hardly any GOP senators support the idea .
Instead , Mr. McConnell and some other Republicans prefer the direct $ 1,200 cash payments to Americans .
Sen. Marco Rubio , R-Fla. , said there will be another boost @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Protection Program .
“ It ’ s going to be big , ” he said .
The bills will also include tax breaks for businesses to hire and retain workers and to help shops and workplaces retool with new safety protocols .
The breakthrough on testing money was key after days of debate between Republicans and the White House .
Republicans wanted $ 25 billion , but the Trump administration said the $ 9 billion in unspent funds from a previous aid deal was sufficient .
The two sides settled on adding $ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ reach $ 25 billion , senators said .
There will also be fresh funds for vaccines .
Of the $ 105 billion for education , Republicans want $ 70 billion to help K-12 schools reopen , $ 30 billion for colleges , and $ 5 billion for governors to allocate .
The Trump administration wanted school money linked to reopenings , but in Mr. McConnell ’ s package the money for K-12 would likely be split between those that have in-person learning and those that don ’ t .
Democrats , who already @ @ @ @ @ @ @ more sweeping $ 3 trillion package two months ago , said the GOP infighting with Mr. Trump was delaying needed relief to Americans during the crisis .
“ We are just days away from a housing crisis that could be prevented , ” said Sen. Elizabeth Warren , D-Mass .
In their package , Democrats are calling for $ 430 billion to reopen schools , bigger unemployment benefits and direct aid checks , and a sweeping $ 1 trillion for state and local governments .
They also want a fresh round of mortgage @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and safety requirements for workers .
Mr. McConnell calls his proposal a “ starting point ” in negotiations with Democrats .
Congress in March approved the massive $ 2.2 trillion CARES package , the biggest of its kind in U.S. history .
The severity of the prolonged virus outbreak is upending American life .
Schools are delaying fall openings , states are clamping down with new stay-home orders , and the fallout is rippling through an economy teetering with high unemployment and business uncertainty .
A new AP-NORC poll shows very few Americans @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the fall .
Still , some Republicans said they are unlikely to approve any new aid .
“ I just don ’ t see the need for it , ” Sen. Ron Johnson , R-Wis. , told reporters on Wednesday .
This story was reported by The Associated Press .
AP writers Andrew Taylor , Mary Clare Jalonick , and Padmananda Rama contributed to this report .
Editor ’ s note : As a public service , the Monitor has removed the paywall for all our coronavirus coverage .
It ’ s free @

The White House has dropped a bid to cut Social Security payroll taxes as Republicans unveil a $1 trillion COVID-19 rescue package on Thursday, ceding to opposition to the idea among top Senate allies.
“It won’t be in the base bill," said Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, speaking on CNBC about the payroll tax cut, killing the idea for now.
The legislation, set to be released Thursday morning by Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., comes amid alarming developments on the virus crisis.
Mr. McConnell's package is an opening GOP bid in talks with top Capitol Hill Democrats in a negotiation that could be rockier than talks in March that produced a $2 trillion rescue package. GOP senators and President Donald Trump are at odds over priorities, and Democrats say it’s not nearly enough to stem the health crisis, reopen schools, and extend aid to jobless Americans.
The Republican leader is expected to deliver a speech shortly after the Senate opens, and then senators will begin rolling out their separate parts of the package, according to a Republican granted anonymity to discuss the plans.
The centerpiece of the GOP effort remains Mr. McConnell’s liability shield to protect businesses, schools, and others from coronavirus-related lawsuits.
The package is not expected to provide any new money for cash-strapped states and cities, which are clamoring for funds, but Republicans propose giving $105 billion to help schools reopen and $15 billion for child care centers to create safe environments for youngsters during the pandemic.
But the GOP measure forges an immediate agreement with Democrats on another round of $1,200 checks to most American adults.
The $600 weekly unemployment benefit boost that is expiring Friday will be reduced, likely to $200, and ultimately adjusted according to state jobless benefits rates. Some Republicans say the boost is a disincentive to work, but others prefer a phased approach. Some Republicans are pressing for a temporary extension of the current benefit if the talks drag.
“We cannot allow there to be a cliff in unemployment insurance given we’re still at about 11% unemployment,” said Sen. Rob Portman, R-Ohio.
The bill is likely to be silent on the potential housing crisis as a federal eviction moratorium on millions of rental units expires in days.
One key holdup in the talks was Mr. Trump’s push for a payroll tax cut, according to a Republican granted anonymity to discuss the private talks. Hardly any GOP senators support the idea. Instead, Mr. McConnell and some other Republicans prefer the direct $1,200 cash payments to Americans.
Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., said there will be another boost for small business lending in the Paycheck Protection Program. “It’s going to be big,” he said.
The bills will also include tax breaks for businesses to hire and retain workers and to help shops and workplaces retool with new safety protocols.
The breakthrough on testing money was key after days of debate between Republicans and the White House. Republicans wanted $25 billion, but the Trump administration said the $9 billion in unspent funds from a previous aid deal was sufficient. The two sides settled on adding $16 billion to the unspent funds to reach $25 billion, senators said. There will also be fresh funds for vaccines.
Of the $105 billion for education, Republicans want $70 billion to help K-12 schools reopen, $30 billion for colleges, and $5 billion for governors to allocate. The Trump administration wanted school money linked to reopenings, but in Mr. McConnell’s package the money for K-12 would likely be split between those that have in-person learning and those that don’t.
Democrats, who already approved House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s more sweeping $3 trillion package two months ago, said the GOP infighting with Mr. Trump was delaying needed relief to Americans during the crisis.
“We are just days away from a housing crisis that could be prevented,” said Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass.
In their package, Democrats are calling for $430 billion to reopen schools, bigger unemployment benefits and direct aid checks, and a sweeping $1 trillion for state and local governments. They also want a fresh round of mortgage and rental assistance and new federal health and safety requirements for workers.
Mr. McConnell calls his proposal a “starting point” in negotiations with Democrats. Congress in March approved the massive $2.2 trillion CARES package, the biggest of its kind in U.S. history.
The severity of the prolonged virus outbreak is upending American life. Schools are delaying fall openings, states are clamping down with new stay-home orders, and the fallout is rippling through an economy teetering with high unemployment and business uncertainty. A new AP-NORC poll shows very few Americans want full school sessions without restrictions in the fall.
Still, some Republicans said they are unlikely to approve any new aid.
“I just don’t see the need for it,” Sen. Ron Johnson, R-Wis., told reporters on Wednesday.
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This story was reported by The Associated Press. AP writers Andrew Taylor, Mary Clare Jalonick, and Padmananda Rama contributed to this report.
Editor’s note: As a public service, the Monitor has removed the paywall for all our coronavirus coverage. It’s free.


csmonitor--2020-07-23--Back to school in the fall? Parents say yes, with restrictions.

Virtual instruction .
Mandated masks .
Physical distancing .
The start of school will look very different this year because of the coronavirus – and that ’ s OK with the vast majority of Americans .
Only about 1 in 10 Americans think daycare centers , preschools , or K-12 schools should open this fall without restrictions , according to a new poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs .
Most think mask requirements and other safety measures are necessary to restart in-person instruction , and roughly 3 in 10 say that teaching kids in classrooms shouldn ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are a sharp contrast to the picture that President Donald Trump paints as he pressures schools to reopen .
Mr. Trump said Wednesday that he would be “ comfortable ” with his son Barron and grandchildren attending school in person this fall .
“ I would like to see the schools open , ” he told reporters .
Few schools , however , plan to return to business as usual .
Many of the nation ’ s largest school districts have announced that they ’ ll be entirely virtual in the fall or @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in classrooms only a couple of days a week .
The poll finds only 8 % of Americans say K-12 schools should open for normal in-person instruction .
Just 14 % think they can reopen with minor adjustments , while 46 % think major adjustments are needed .
Another 31 % think instruction should not be in person this fall .
It ’ s little different among the parents of school-age children .
The poll also shows Americans feel the same about colleges and universities reopening this fall .
Americans show little confidence @ @ @ @ @ @ @ education issues .
Only 36 % say they approve of Mr. Trump ’ s performance , while 63 % disapprove .
But a stark political divide on opening schools suggests many Republicans are taking cues from the president .
About 9 in 10 Democrats say requiring students and staff to wear masks is essential to reopening , while only about half of Republicans say the same .
Democrats are roughly twice as likely as Republicans to say schools should use a mix of in-person and virtual instruction to reduce the number of students @ @ @ @ @ @ @ % .
Patty Kasbek , of Bartlesville , Oklahoma , said she desperately wants her two children , ages 5 and 10 , to return to school .
After months at home , the family is stressed and anxious .
But with the virus surging , she doesn ’ t see a safe way to reopen .
“ School shouldn ’ t even be considered right now , ” said Ms. Kasbek .
“ We need to get this under control before we play with the virus .
It ’ s just too @ @ @ @ @ @ @ like guinea pigs.
” Her local school district is planning to reopen with new safety measures , she said , but she ’ s opting to enroll her children in a virtual school .
She isn ’ t as worried about her own health but fears that reopening schools could spread the virus to others .
“ I just see it going very badly , and I ’ m very , very worried for the teachers , ” said Ms. Kasbek , who considers herself a Democrat .
The poll finds a majority @ @ @ @ @ @ @ they are very or extremely concerned that reopening schools will lead to additional infections in their communities ; another 24 % are somewhat concerned .
Some , however , see little risk .
James Rivers , of Ramsey , Minnesota , said schools should reopen without protective measures against the virus .
Mr. Rivers , a Republican , says Mr. Trump is doing a “ fine job ” and will have his vote in November .
“ I think it should be just business as usual , ” said Mr. Rivers .
“ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , but is it any more deadly than the common flu ?
I don ’ t think so.
” Mr. Rivers , who does not have school-age children , said parents who fear the virus can home school .
“ As for everybody else who isn ’ t afraid of a virus that has a less than 2 % chance of being fatal , send your kid back to school .
Let ’ s get it done , ” he said .
Majorities say it is essential that buildings be disinfected daily , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and desks be spread apart if schools are to reopen .
And 6 in 10 think a mix of in-person and virtual instruction is necessary , to limit the number of students inside at one time .
Some of the nation ’ s largest districts , including New York City ’ s schools , plan to use that model .
But Education Secretary Betsy DeVos says that fails students and taxpayers , arguing that students should be in the classroom every day .
In his campaign to reopen schools , Mr. Trump @ @ @ @ @ @ @ reasons .
He has threatened to cut federal funding for schools that fail to reopen fully .
The White House has said he wants to work with Congress to tie future relief funding to reopening .
He argues that other countries have reopened schools safely , although some he cites have used the hybrid model that Ms. DeVos decried .
The Trump administration also has argued that it ’ s not just about academics .
Students need access to meal programs and mental health services , it says .
But Mr. Trump ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ his own health officials .
He rebuked the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for releasing school guidelines that he said were too tough .
The poll finds about half of parents saying they are at least somewhat concerned about their child losing services like school lunches or counseling because of the pandemic .
More say they are worried about their child falling behind academically : 55 % are very concerned , with another 21 % somewhat concerned .
A majority of parents , 65 % , are at least somewhat concerned about @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Jimmy La Londe of Hiawassee , Georgia , thinks schools should reopen with safety measures that local officials think are necessary .
Still , Mr. La Londe , who considers himself a Republican , said keeping schools closed will only hurt students and anger taxpayers .
“ They have to keep the momentum , they have to keep people used to going to school , ” he said .
“ I don ’ t think you can stop school forever.
” This story was reported by The Associated Press .
AP writer Zeke @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Editor ’ s note : As a public service , the Monitor has removed the paywall for all our coronavirus coverage .
It ’ s free .

Virtual instruction. Mandated masks. Physical distancing. The start of school will look very different this year because of the coronavirus – and that’s OK with the vast majority of Americans.
Only about 1 in 10 Americans think daycare centers, preschools, or K-12 schools should open this fall without restrictions, according to a new poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs. Most think mask requirements and other safety measures are necessary to restart in-person instruction, and roughly 3 in 10 say that teaching kids in classrooms shouldn’t happen at all.
The findings are a sharp contrast to the picture that President Donald Trump paints as he pressures schools to reopen. Mr. Trump said Wednesday that he would be “comfortable” with his son Barron and grandchildren attending school in person this fall.
“I would like to see the schools open,” he told reporters.
Few schools, however, plan to return to business as usual. Many of the nation’s largest school districts have announced that they’ll be entirely virtual in the fall or use a hybrid model that has children in classrooms only a couple of days a week.
The poll finds only 8% of Americans say K-12 schools should open for normal in-person instruction. Just 14% think they can reopen with minor adjustments, while 46% think major adjustments are needed. Another 31% think instruction should not be in person this fall. It’s little different among the parents of school-age children.
The poll also shows Americans feel the same about colleges and universities reopening this fall.
Americans show little confidence in Mr. Trump’s handling of education issues. Only 36% say they approve of Mr. Trump’s performance, while 63% disapprove. But a stark political divide on opening schools suggests many Republicans are taking cues from the president.
About 9 in 10 Democrats say requiring students and staff to wear masks is essential to reopening, while only about half of Republicans say the same. Democrats are roughly twice as likely as Republicans to say schools should use a mix of in-person and virtual instruction to reduce the number of students in buildings, 77% to 39%.
Patty Kasbek, of Bartlesville, Oklahoma, said she desperately wants her two children, ages 5 and 10, to return to school. After months at home, the family is stressed and anxious. But with the virus surging, she doesn’t see a safe way to reopen.
“School shouldn’t even be considered right now,” said Ms. Kasbek. “We need to get this under control before we play with the virus. It’s just too dangerous to put our kids out there like guinea pigs.”
Her local school district is planning to reopen with new safety measures, she said, but she’s opting to enroll her children in a virtual school. She isn’t as worried about her own health but fears that reopening schools could spread the virus to others.
“I just see it going very badly, and I’m very, very worried for the teachers,” said Ms. Kasbek, who considers herself a Democrat.
The poll finds a majority of Americans, 56%, say they are very or extremely concerned that reopening schools will lead to additional infections in their communities; another 24% are somewhat concerned.
Some, however, see little risk. James Rivers, of Ramsey, Minnesota, said schools should reopen without protective measures against the virus. Mr. Rivers, a Republican, says Mr. Trump is doing a “fine job” and will have his vote in November.
“I think it should be just business as usual,” said Mr. Rivers. “Yes, there is a COVID virus, but is it any more deadly than the common flu? I don’t think so.”
Mr. Rivers, who does not have school-age children, said parents who fear the virus can home school. “As for everybody else who isn’t afraid of a virus that has a less than 2% chance of being fatal, send your kid back to school. Let’s get it done,” he said.
Majorities say it is essential that buildings be disinfected daily, temperature checks and face masks be mandatory, and desks be spread apart if schools are to reopen.
And 6 in 10 think a mix of in-person and virtual instruction is necessary, to limit the number of students inside at one time. Some of the nation’s largest districts, including New York City’s schools, plan to use that model. But Education Secretary Betsy DeVos says that fails students and taxpayers, arguing that students should be in the classroom every day.
In his campaign to reopen schools, Mr. Trump argues that Democrats oppose it for political reasons. He has threatened to cut federal funding for schools that fail to reopen fully. The White House has said he wants to work with Congress to tie future relief funding to reopening. He argues that other countries have reopened schools safely, although some he cites have used the hybrid model that Ms. DeVos decried.
The Trump administration also has argued that it’s not just about academics. Students need access to meal programs and mental health services, it says.
But Mr. Trump’s demands put him at odds with his own health officials. He rebuked the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for releasing school guidelines that he said were too tough.
The poll finds about half of parents saying they are at least somewhat concerned about their child losing services like school lunches or counseling because of the pandemic.
More say they are worried about their child falling behind academically: 55% are very concerned, with another 21% somewhat concerned.
A majority of parents, 65%, are at least somewhat concerned about their own ability to juggle responsibilities.
Jimmy La Londe of Hiawassee, Georgia, thinks schools should reopen with safety measures that local officials think are necessary. Still, Mr. La Londe, who considers himself a Republican, said keeping schools closed will only hurt students and anger taxpayers.
“They have to keep the momentum, they have to keep people used to going to school,” he said. “I don’t think you can stop school forever.”
This story was reported by The Associated Press. AP writer Zeke Miller in Washington contributed to this report.
Editor’s note: As a public service, the Monitor has removed the paywall for all our coronavirus coverage. It’s free.