csmonitor--2020-12-14--‘Tecumseh and the Prophet’ shines a light on Native American resistance

Peter Cozzens , author of 2016 ’ s brilliant history “ The Earth is Weeping : The Epic Story of the Indian Wars for the American West , ” concentrates his new book on the Shawnee people , one of the many Native American nations that fought to preserve their autonomy and ancestral lands from the expansion of the United States .
In particular , Cozzens is interested in two men from that nation : the great political and military leader Tecumseh and his brother Tenskwatawa , who was the spiritual “ Prophet ” of his people .
“ Tecumseh @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Who Defied a Nation ” seeks to tell the dual stories of the siblings .
Most earlier biographers chose to adopt – uncritically – the opposite-ends characterization of the brothers that originated with U.S. Indian agents and jingoistic early propagandists .
That original picture tended to paint Tecumseh as handsome , eloquent ( his skill as an orator is universally attested ) , noble , self-sacrificing , and completely dedicated to leading his people to independence from the imperialist encroachment of the U.S. government .
As if to counterbalance this image , those @ @ @ @ @ @ @ savage – an image that would become one of the 19th century ’ s most hateful stereotypes .
He was portrayed as a weak , envious , schemer who was disowned by his brother and cast out from his people .
This is the contrast presented , for instance , in Allan W. Eckert ’ s bestselling 1992 doorstop “ A Sorrow in Our Heart : The Life of Tecumseh , ” and Cozzens notes that it only really began to be discarded in 1998 with John Sugden ’ s “ Tecumseh : @ @ @ @ @ @ @ studies .
These later studies delved more critically into the importance of Tenskwatawa ’ s role at the center of the sweeping religious revival that galvanized not only the Shawnee but all of the embattled indigenous nations facing attack and forcible relocation .
Tenskwatawa became the spiritual leader of that movement , and in “ Tecumseh and the Prophet , ” Cozzens goes further than any previous biographer in assessing that importance : He posits that without the prophet , there would have been no Tecumseh .
Cozzens expertly mines the surprisingly varied @ @ @ @ @ @ @ early lives ; he presents the fullest picture yet of who these men were before they achieved national fame .
His book balances them more than any previous retelling of the story ever has .
“ Tecumseh and the Prophet ” is as close to a fully realized popular biography of Tenkswatawa as is ever likely to be written , but it ’ s still overwhelmingly Tecumseh ’ s story .
And it ’ s an epic tale .
Through sheer force of personality , Tecumseh managed to forge a sprawling confederation of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ demands – many of them necessarily at gunpoint – for the return of tribal lands and the honoring of treaties .
Tenskwatawa and his allies fought and lost the Battle of Tippecanoe in 1811 , and in the following year Tecumseh joined his considerable forces with those of the British during the War of 1812 , gaining the admiration of his British allies generally but winning precious little else .
At the Battle of the Thames in Canada on Oct. 5 , 1813 , Tecumseh was killed and his body was scalped and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by his lifelong opponent , former Indiana Territory governor and future U.S. President William Henry Harrison .
Cozzens wrote about these kinds of topics – treaty betrayals , desperate battles , doomed last stands – on a broad scale in “ The Earth is Weeping , ” but in these pages he ’ s able to indulge more fully in the interplay of personalities .
Harrison is thoroughly the villain of the piece , always venal and vicious , always untrustworthy and unsympathetic .
And Tecumseh is equally thoroughly the hero of this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ face of the oncoming juggernaut of American land-hunger .
And although Cozzens assures his readers that “ Never had Tecumseh expressed anything short of absolute fidelity to Tenskwatawa ’ s doctrine , ” the book is not quite convincing in its attempts to elevate the prophet to equal status with his warrior brother .
Even while Tecumseh is still alive and inspiring everybody around him , Cozzens can still easily refer to Tenskwatawa as “ a former drunkard and village laughingstock who had never led a single warrior in battle.
” And after @ @ @ @ @ @ @ collapse of his brother ’ s religious revival movement , Cozzen ’ s depiction of him converges very closely on all those earlier contemptuous biographical treatments : “ In Tenskwatawa ’ s calculus , the pan-Indian unity for which his brother had given his life was secondary to his own survival and that of his adherents , ” Cozzens writes .
“ He would compromise and connive , beg and badger – whatever it took to keep going.
” Cozzens treats all of this in wonderfully powerful rhetorical detail .
“ Tecumseh and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the grandest effort of Native Americans to retain their independence – and the political and spiritual leaders who tried to make it happen .

Peter Cozzens, author of 2016’s brilliant history “The Earth is Weeping: The Epic Story of the Indian Wars for the American West,” concentrates his new book on the Shawnee people, one of the many Native American nations that fought to preserve their autonomy and ancestral lands from the expansion of the United States. In particular, Cozzens is interested in two men from that nation: the great political and military leader Tecumseh and his brother Tenskwatawa, who was the spiritual “Prophet” of his people. “Tecumseh and the Prophet: The Shawnee Brothers Who Defied a Nation” seeks to tell the dual stories of the siblings.
Most earlier biographers chose to adopt – uncritically – the opposite-ends characterization of the brothers that originated with U.S. Indian agents and jingoistic early propagandists. That original picture tended to paint Tecumseh as handsome, eloquent (his skill as an orator is universally attested), noble, self-sacrificing, and completely dedicated to leading his people to independence from the imperialist encroachment of the U.S. government. As if to counterbalance this image, those earliest accounts portrayed Tenskwatawa as a drunken savage – an image that would become one of the 19th century’s most hateful stereotypes. He was portrayed as a weak, envious, schemer who was disowned by his brother and cast out from his people. This is the contrast presented, for instance, in Allan W. Eckert’s bestselling 1992 doorstop “A Sorrow in Our Heart: The Life of Tecumseh,” and Cozzens notes that it only really began to be discarded in 1998 with John Sugden’s “Tecumseh: A Life” and other more specialist studies.
These later studies delved more critically into the importance of Tenskwatawa’s role at the center of the sweeping religious revival that galvanized not only the Shawnee but all of the embattled indigenous nations facing attack and forcible relocation. Tenskwatawa became the spiritual leader of that movement, and in “Tecumseh and the Prophet,” Cozzens goes further than any previous biographer in assessing that importance: He posits that without the prophet, there would have been no Tecumseh.
Cozzens expertly mines the surprisingly varied array of sources for the brothers’ early lives; he presents the fullest picture yet of who these men were before they achieved national fame. His book balances them more than any previous retelling of the story ever has. “Tecumseh and the Prophet” is as close to a fully realized popular biography of Tenkswatawa as is ever likely to be written, but it’s still overwhelmingly Tecumseh’s story.
And it’s an epic tale. Through sheer force of personality, Tecumseh managed to forge a sprawling confederation of Native Americans and make a series of demands – many of them necessarily at gunpoint – for the return of tribal lands and the honoring of treaties. Tenskwatawa and his allies fought and lost the Battle of Tippecanoe in 1811, and in the following year Tecumseh joined his considerable forces with those of the British during the War of 1812, gaining the admiration of his British allies generally but winning precious little else. At the Battle of the Thames in Canada on Oct. 5, 1813, Tecumseh was killed and his body was scalped and despoiled before it could be definitively identified by his lifelong opponent, former Indiana Territory governor and future U.S. President William Henry Harrison.
Cozzens wrote about these kinds of topics – treaty betrayals, desperate battles, doomed last stands – on a broad scale in “The Earth is Weeping,” but in these pages he’s able to indulge more fully in the interplay of personalities. Harrison is thoroughly the villain of the piece, always venal and vicious, always untrustworthy and unsympathetic. And Tecumseh is equally thoroughly the hero of this story, fierce and uncompromising in the face of the oncoming juggernaut of American land-hunger.
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And although Cozzens assures his readers that “Never had Tecumseh expressed anything short of absolute fidelity to Tenskwatawa’s doctrine,” the book is not quite convincing in its attempts to elevate the prophet to equal status with his warrior brother. Even while Tecumseh is still alive and inspiring everybody around him, Cozzens can still easily refer to Tenskwatawa as “a former drunkard and village laughingstock who had never led a single warrior in battle.” And after Tecumseh’s death and the subsequent collapse of his brother’s religious revival movement, Cozzen’s depiction of him converges very closely on all those earlier contemptuous biographical treatments: “In Tenskwatawa’s calculus, the pan-Indian unity for which his brother had given his life was secondary to his own survival and that of his adherents,” Cozzens writes. “He would compromise and connive, beg and badger – whatever it took to keep going.”
Cozzens treats all of this in wonderfully powerful rhetorical detail. “Tecumseh and the Prophet” paints in vivid colors the grandest effort of Native Americans to retain their independence – and the political and spiritual leaders who tried to make it happen.


csmonitor--2020-12-14--Q&A with Ravi Somaiya, author of ‘The Golden Thread’

Journalist Ravi Somaiya suggests in his new book that the United Nations secretary-general in the 1960s , Dag Hammarskjöld , paid a terrible price for his efforts to broker a cease-fire in the bloody civil war in Congo .
Mr. Somaiya spoke with Monitor correspondent Randy Dotinga .
Q : What drew you to this story ?
I came across this in an archive , and I just was just blown away .
It ’ s a ripping mystery , and I love stories where people aren ’ t entirely good or entirely bad .
It becomes so much more @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Q : How did Congo become such a global hot spot ?
It had the world ’ s most desirable uranium for purposes that both the Soviets and the West had in mind , and there were other vital minerals there .
Then , it came to be strategically vital as the Cold War developed .
It borders nine other nations and is really the heart of Africa .
Q : Hammarskjöld tried to bring peace to the region .
What was his vision ?
He felt that the Black majority deserved to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ] oppression and brutality .
It ’ s amazing to me just how incendiary a position that was in 1961 and how much it drove everyone absolutely crazy .
He managed to annoy an enormous number of very powerful people .
What I love about him is that he ’ s one of the purest idealists I ’ ve come across in any position of power .
It ’ s very rare .
He genuinely tried to do good and was also quite effective .
You ’ ve really cracked something if you @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a meaningful way when surrounded by segments who oppose you .
Q : How did this Swedish economist become the head of the United Nations in the first place ?
He didn ’ t seem like any sort of threat , and U.N. leaders just said , “ Great , shove that guy in , he ’ s not going to cause us any trouble.
” But in the end , he was both principled and willing to fight for his beliefs .
Now , many diplomats say he represents the best of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ think would have happened in Congo if Hammarskjöld had lived ?
I like to hope that we might have had a more peaceful resolution .
To me , it ’ s about the original sin of colonialism .
You can ’ t have that much murder and brutality and oppression without having some rage and division to overcome afterward .
There ’ s still a lot of healing left to be done in the Congo .
Q : What is his legacy ?
Moral leadership is principled leadership and idealistic leadership .
Sometimes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ right thing .
But I look around the world , and everyone seems to be trying to do what ’ s expedient .
Our leaders seem to check the polls before making a decision .
Q : How close to the truth is your book in answering whether Hammarskjöld was murdered or died in an accident ?
You can ’ t really know for sure until everything ’ s been revealed .
Governments are still holding onto documents , and I can ’ t imagine why .
I ’ m sure it ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ embarrassment .
Q : But we are getting closer , correct ?
Reports from the U.N. coming out later this year are going to reveal more , and I ’ m also going to keep pushing .
We ’ ve gotten nearly all the way there .
I don ’ t know if one can ever discover the truth in capital letters , but we can have the most honest , accurate accounting of what happened .

Journalist Ravi Somaiya suggests in his new book that the United Nations secretary-general in the 1960s, Dag Hammarskjöld, paid a terrible price for his efforts to broker a cease-fire in the bloody civil war in Congo. Mr. Somaiya spoke with Monitor correspondent Randy Dotinga.
Q: What drew you to this story?
I came across this in an archive, and I just was just blown away. It’s a ripping mystery, and I love stories where people aren’t entirely good or entirely bad. It becomes so much more interesting when the characters are ambiguous.
Q: How did Congo become such a global hot spot?
It had the world’s most desirable uranium for purposes that both the Soviets and the West had in mind, and there were other vital minerals there. Then, it came to be strategically vital as the Cold War developed. It borders nine other nations and is really the heart of Africa.
Q: Hammarskjöld tried to bring peace to the region. What was his vision?
He felt that the Black majority deserved to rule after many decades of [colonial] oppression and brutality. It’s amazing to me just how incendiary a position that was in 1961 and how much it drove everyone absolutely crazy. He managed to annoy an enormous number of very powerful people.
What I love about him is that he’s one of the purest idealists I’ve come across in any position of power. It’s very rare. He genuinely tried to do good and was also quite effective. You’ve really cracked something if you can manage to apply idealistic principles in a meaningful way when surrounded by segments who oppose you.
Q: How did this Swedish economist become the head of the United Nations in the first place?
He didn’t seem like any sort of threat, and U.N. leaders just said, “Great, shove that guy in, he’s not going to cause us any trouble.” But in the end, he was both principled and willing to fight for his beliefs. Now, many diplomats say he represents the best of the U.N.
Q: What do you think would have happened in Congo if Hammarskjöld had lived?
I like to hope that we might have had a more peaceful resolution. To me, it’s about the original sin of colonialism. You can’t have that much murder and brutality and oppression without having some rage and division to overcome afterward. There’s still a lot of healing left to be done in the Congo.
Q: What is his legacy?
Moral leadership is principled leadership and idealistic leadership. Sometimes it’s OK to do the right thing. But I look around the world, and everyone seems to be trying to do what’s expedient. Our leaders seem to check the polls before making a decision.
Q: How close to the truth is your book in answering whether Hammarskjöld was murdered or died in an accident?
You can’t really know for sure until everything’s been revealed. Governments are still holding onto documents, and I can’t imagine why. I’m sure it’s for some silly reason like petty embarrassment.
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Q: But we are getting closer, correct?
Reports from the U.N. coming out later this year are going to reveal more, and I’m also going to keep pushing. We’ve gotten nearly all the way there. I don’t know if one can ever discover the truth in capital letters, but we can have the most honest, accurate accounting of what happened.


csmonitor--2020-12-14--A bear lives, hunts, and watches the Arctic melt in ‘Ice Walker’

The polar bear ’ s den is a remarkable feat of evolution .
After digging a depression in the snow , the bear settles in , her movement and temperature coordinating perfectly to create a chamber close to freezing , even as the winter Arctic air drops to some minus 40 degrees Fahrenheit .
Throughout her winter rest , the bear scratches and shapes a chimney , which allows fresh air in without undue heat loss .
There is an exit tunnel , if she needs to escape quickly .
The den eventually shapes into two chambers – the upper @ @ @ @ @ @ @ breath , offering a safe place for cubs starting life .
It is in one of these structures that Nanu , a polar bear sow at the center of Arctic explorer James Raffan ’ s book , “ Ice Walker : A Polar Bear ’ s Journey Through the Fragile Arctic , ” spends the first months with her cubs .
And it is from here that the bears set out across the ice – part of an annual odyssey that polar bears have undertaken for millenniums .
Nanu and her babies will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ frozen mainland , for months .
The Arctic , we learn , is full of hazards , even for an apex species such as the polar bear .
There are solitary males who regularly kill cubs .
There are wolves who would encircle and attack babies .
And there are humans .
But the biggest challenge confronting Nanu and her family is the climate itself .
Not the cold – Nanu ’ s body , as Raffan describes in exquisite detail , is as integrated into the Arctic as an ice flow .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ cover her body to a metabolism able to slow enough to preserve energy for months of fasting , Nanu has evolved in stunning harmony with her environment .
But this year , the climate – and the ice – have changed .
The season during which the animals can hunt seal has shortened , and there are dangerous encounters with other species , from orcas to humans , whose ranges are newly overlapping .
Even the landscape has altered , and oil-slicked water appears where once there would have been an ice bridge @ @ @ @ @ @ @ speed of change was gradual , so bears could mostly adapt as they went about their yearly cycles , ” Raffan writes .
“ Today , climate change has accelerated in lockstep with technological progress , and that change now takes place much more rapidly .
Nanu and her cubs are living in circumstances that ... will challenge their very survival.
” Raffan , who has spent years exploring , researching , and writing about the Arctic , is explicit about the fact that Nanu is a composite , a bear created from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not fiction , he asserts .
It is storytelling that transcends science – itself a limited language , and arguably one that has proved insufficient at conveying the magnitude of what we are about to lose .
It is , indeed , this storytelling that makes “ Ice Walker ” such a compelling , and poignantly painful , read .
Raffan ’ s prose is lyrical .
We see the beauty of the Arctic summer , when “ meltwater pools transform the surface of the ice into a sun-warmed blotter of azure blue @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the dread when Nanu spots the “ strange rainbow-coloured reflection of the night sky ” around her cub , anticipating the damage that will come as he swims through it .
Critics may find fault with this invented bear family .
Although Raffan avoids obvious anthropomorphism , there will be those skeptical about his attempt at a “ bear ’ s-eye view.
” Others might long for a “ true ” story – one real bear , unnamed , intimately studied and factually recorded .
Nonetheless , the emotional punch of Nanu ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ holds , are powerful .
Although Raffan perhaps falls short in his goal of introducing the northern people he has long worked alongside , he clearly succeeds in his explicit goal to “ explore a spectrum of ways in which humans know bears and how bears know humans.
” “ Should we begin to appreciate fully the global changes wrought by human appetites , ” he writes , “ we might begin to understand that the threats to polar bears are also profound threats to us .
”

The polar bear’s den is a remarkable feat of evolution. After digging a depression in the snow, the bear settles in, her movement and temperature coordinating perfectly to create a chamber close to freezing, even as the winter Arctic air drops to some minus 40 degrees Fahrenheit.
Throughout her winter rest, the bear scratches and shapes a chimney, which allows fresh air in without undue heat loss. There is an exit tunnel, if she needs to escape quickly. The den eventually shapes into two chambers – the upper one is warmed by body heat and breath, offering a safe place for cubs starting life.
It is in one of these structures that Nanu, a polar bear sow at the center of Arctic explorer James Raffan’s book, “Ice Walker: A Polar Bear’s Journey Through the Fragile Arctic,” spends the first months with her cubs. And it is from here that the bears set out across the ice – part of an annual odyssey that polar bears have undertaken for millenniums.
Nanu and her babies will walk across ice, and then the frozen mainland, for months. The Arctic, we learn, is full of hazards, even for an apex species such as the polar bear. There are solitary males who regularly kill cubs. There are wolves who would encircle and attack babies. And there are humans.
But the biggest challenge confronting Nanu and her family is the climate itself. Not the cold – Nanu’s body, as Raffan describes in exquisite detail, is as integrated into the Arctic as an ice flow. From the hollow, light-reflecting hairs that cover her body to a metabolism able to slow enough to preserve energy for months of fasting, Nanu has evolved in stunning harmony with her environment.
But this year, the climate – and the ice – have changed. The season during which the animals can hunt seal has shortened, and there are dangerous encounters with other species, from orcas to humans, whose ranges are newly overlapping. Even the landscape has altered, and oil-slicked water appears where once there would have been an ice bridge.
“Until very recently, the speed of change was gradual, so bears could mostly adapt as they went about their yearly cycles,” Raffan writes. “Today, climate change has accelerated in lockstep with technological progress, and that change now takes place much more rapidly. Nanu and her cubs are living in circumstances that ... will challenge their very survival.”
Raffan, who has spent years exploring, researching, and writing about the Arctic, is explicit about the fact that Nanu is a composite, a bear created from years of observation. But this is not fiction, he asserts. It is storytelling that transcends science – itself a limited language, and arguably one that has proved insufficient at conveying the magnitude of what we are about to lose.
It is, indeed, this storytelling that makes “Ice Walker” such a compelling, and poignantly painful, read. Raffan’s prose is lyrical. We see the beauty of the Arctic summer, when “meltwater pools transform the surface of the ice into a sun-warmed blotter of azure blue on white,” and we feel the dread when Nanu spots the “strange rainbow-coloured reflection of the night sky” around her cub, anticipating the damage that will come as he swims through it.
Critics may find fault with this invented bear family. Although Raffan avoids obvious anthropomorphism, there will be those skeptical about his attempt at a “bear’s-eye view.” Others might long for a “true” story – one real bear, unnamed, intimately studied and factually recorded.
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empower and uplift daily. By signing up, you agree to our Privacy Policy Already a subscriber? Log in to hide ads.
Nonetheless, the emotional punch of Nanu’s tale, and the lessons it holds, are powerful. Although Raffan perhaps falls short in his goal of introducing the northern people he has long worked alongside, he clearly succeeds in his explicit goal to “explore a spectrum of ways in which humans know bears and how bears know humans.”
“Should we begin to appreciate fully the global changes wrought by human appetites,” he writes, “we might begin to understand that the threats to polar bears are also profound threats to us.”


csmonitor--2020-12-14--2020’s murder increase is ‘unprecedented.’ But is it a blip?

“ When society ’ s norms and values are in flux or have disappeared or disintegrated , people don ’ t know how to behave , ” says Kim Davies , a sociologist who studies the dynamics of violent crime .
“ It ’ s a kind of normlessness that gives way to ‘ Nothing matters.
’ [ The murder increase ] is similar to spikes in suicide when we ’ ve had economic depressions .
But nothing like this has ever happened.
” Those who want to read partisanship into the trend will be disappointed .
Like the pandemic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ political affiliation .
This year , 51 cities across the U.S. saw an average 35 % jump in murder from 2019 to 2020 – a “ historically awful ” development , says New Orleans-based crime analyst Jeff Asher , who crunched those numbers .
A different study looking at 21 U.S. cities found 610 more murders in those jurisdictions this year over last year .
In those cities , gun assaults increased by 10 % over 2019 .
Overall crime has dropped dramatically in the United States since the late 1990s .
But @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the rates of the late ’ 80s and ’ 90s , before the big drop , ” says Richard Rosenfeld , lead author of “ Pandemic , Social Unrest and Crime in US Cities , ” a new report .
“ This round of crime increase is unprecedented.
” After police discovered Huong Nguyen ’ s body in a car trunk earlier this year in New Orleans East , suspicion fell on her brother .
After being spotted on a surveillance camera walking away from his sister ’ s car the night she @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and , if convicted , could spend the rest of his life in prison .
For all its singular tragedy , Ms. Nguyen ’ s death is part of a tide of gun violence rising from New Orleans to Lubbock , Texas .
Coming off a record low in homicides in 2019 , New Orleans saw its rate spike by over 50 % this year .
It is not , by any stretch , an outlier .
Lubbock doubled its murder rate , so far , from 2019 to 2020 .
To be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the U.S. since the late 1990s .
But the 2020 homicide rate “ now exceeds the rates of the late ’ 80s and ’ 90s , before the big drop , ” says Richard Rosenfeld , lead author of “ Pandemic , Social Unrest and Crime in US Cities , ” a new report .
“ This round of crime increase is unprecedented.
” This year , 51 cities of various sizes across the U.S. saw an average 35 % jump in murder from 2019 to 2020 – a “ historically awful @ @ @ @ @ @ @ analyst Jeff Asher , who crunched those numbers .
A different study looking at 21 U.S. cities found 610 more murders in those jurisdictions this year over last year .
In those cities , gun assaults increased by 10 % over 2019 .
Those who want to read partisanship into the trend will be disappointed .
Like the pandemic , murder doesn ’ t discriminate by political affiliation : Cities with Democratic mayors are seeing the same increases in lethal violence as cities with Republican mayors .
“ We ’ re seeing it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ like New Orleans ... but also in smaller places like Omaha , Nebraska , that don ’ t typically have a lot of murders , ” says Mr. Asher .
“ It ’ s really not something that ’ s got a lot of easy explanations.
” Calls for service and arrests in cities like New Orleans have plummeted in a pandemic year , though underreporting could be a factor in those drops .
One nonviolent crime that ’ s rising is shoplifting .
An estimated 54 million Americans are struggling with hunger @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rise since 2019 .
High joblessness , the end of federal pandemic aid , and a relative lack of a safety net in the U.S. are leading to high rates of despair , experts say .
The pandemic ’ s grating effects and the electorate ’ s rebuke of a norm-busting presidency have dominated the national psyche .
As Americans have bought guns at record rates , some research suggests a causal increase in those weapons being used against others .
The biggest spike in gun violence , notes Mr. Rosenfeld , came @ @ @ @ @ @ @ late spring and summer after George Floyd was killed by police in Minneapolis .
What ’ s more , there is evidence that the bulk of the violence is occurring in poorer working class neighborhoods , such as New Orleans East , that have been hit hardest by the pandemic ’ s economic downturn and the backlash to calls for police reform .
Police activity – or lack of it – “ is more likely a symptom of this concept of police legitimacy , where police pull back because people are upset and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Asher in New Orleans .
“ And when people don ’ t believe that the police are going to be a natural arbiter , perhaps they ’ re more likely to take things into their hands – more retribution killings .
But ...
I ’ m skeptical that the explanation for why murder is going up everywhere is because police have somehow changed.
” After all , “ murder is often mundane , ” says Kim Davies , a researcher at Augusta University , usually involving people known to one another , often @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and other drugs , the use of which have risen during the pandemic .
Interpersonal toxicity , she says , can be exacerbated by more foundational shifts – such as once in a century-level health crisis and a bitter election in which a peaceful transition has come under threat .
“ When society ’ s norms and values are in flux or have disappeared or disintegrated , people don ’ t know how to behave , ” says Ms. Davies , a sociologist who studies the dynamics of violent crime .
“ It @ @ @ @ @ @ @ gives way to ‘ Nothing matters.
’ [ The murder increase ] is similar to spikes in suicide when we ’ ve had economic depressions .
But nothing like this has ever happened.
” That unique dynamic also gives researchers hope that 2020 becomes a statistical anomaly .
“ The strategy to reduce violence is , first and foremost , to subdue the pandemic , ” says Mr. Rosenfeld , a professor emeritus and criminologist at the University of Missouri-St. Louis .
“ The second is to redouble smart policing activity .
And @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of police reform seriously , because if police aren ’ t able to repair the relationship with communities in the cities that have experienced this uptick , I don ’ t think any crime reductions that might occur from more policing are going to last long .
”

“When society’s norms and values are in flux or have disappeared or disintegrated, people don’t know how to behave,” says Kim Davies, a sociologist who studies the dynamics of violent crime. “It’s a kind of normlessness that gives way to ‘Nothing matters.’ [The murder increase] is similar to spikes in suicide when we’ve had economic depressions. But nothing like this has ever happened.”
Those who want to read partisanship into the trend will be disappointed. Like the pandemic, murder doesn’t discriminate by political affiliation.
The spike in murder across the board in the United States defies easy explanation. But getting control of the pandemic looms large on lists of proposed solutions.
This year, 51 cities across the U.S. saw an average 35% jump in murder from 2019 to 2020 – a “historically awful” development, says New Orleans-based crime analyst Jeff Asher, who crunched those numbers. A different study looking at 21 U.S. cities found 610 more murders in those jurisdictions this year over last year. In those cities, gun assaults increased by 10% over 2019.
Overall crime has dropped dramatically in the United States since the late 1990s. But the 2020 homicide rate “now exceeds the rates of the late ’80s and ’90s, before the big drop,” says Richard Rosenfeld, lead author of “Pandemic, Social Unrest and Crime in US Cities,” a new report. “This round of crime increase is unprecedented.”
After police discovered Huong Nguyen’s body in a car trunk earlier this year in New Orleans East, suspicion fell on her brother.
After being spotted on a surveillance camera walking away from his sister’s car the night she disappeared, Hoa Nguyen has been charged and, if convicted, could spend the rest of his life in prison.
For all its singular tragedy, Ms. Nguyen’s death is part of a tide of gun violence rising from New Orleans to Lubbock, Texas. Coming off a record low in homicides in 2019, New Orleans saw its rate spike by over 50% this year. It is not, by any stretch, an outlier. Lubbock doubled its murder rate, so far, from 2019 to 2020.
Why We Wrote This The spike in murder across the board in the United States defies easy explanation. But getting control of the pandemic looms large on lists of proposed solutions.
To be sure, overall crime has dropped dramatically in the U.S. since the late 1990s. But the 2020 homicide rate “now exceeds the rates of the late ’80s and ’90s, before the big drop,” says Richard Rosenfeld, lead author of “Pandemic, Social Unrest and Crime in US Cities,” a new report. “This round of crime increase is unprecedented.”
This year, 51 cities of various sizes across the U.S. saw an average 35% jump in murder from 2019 to 2020 – a “historically awful” development, says New Orleans-based crime analyst Jeff Asher, who crunched those numbers. A different study looking at 21 U.S. cities found 610 more murders in those jurisdictions this year over last year. In those cities, gun assaults increased by 10% over 2019.
SOURCE: Rosenfeld, Richard, and Ernesto Lopez. 2020. Pandemic, Social Unrest, and Crime in U.S. Cities: November 2020 Update. Washington, D.C.: Council on Criminal Justice (December). Metropolitan Crime Commission. Crimealytics | Karen Norris/Staff
Those who want to read partisanship into the trend will be disappointed. Like the pandemic, murder doesn’t discriminate by political affiliation: Cities with Democratic mayors are seeing the same increases in lethal violence as cities with Republican mayors.
“We’re seeing it pretty much across the board in places like New Orleans ... but also in smaller places like Omaha, Nebraska, that don’t typically have a lot of murders,” says Mr. Asher. “It’s really not something that’s got a lot of easy explanations.”
Calls for service and arrests in cities like New Orleans have plummeted in a pandemic year, though underreporting could be a factor in those drops.
Melanie Stetson Freeman/Staff/File View caption Hide caption A “Thou shalt not kill” sign is nailed to a pole in the Third Ward, one of the neighborhoods with the highest homicide rate, in New Orleans on Jan. 29, 2019. New Orleans is one of 51 U.S. cities where homicides spiked during the 2020 pandemic.
One nonviolent crime that’s rising is shoplifting. An estimated 54 million Americans are struggling with hunger this year, a nearly 50% rise since 2019. High joblessness, the end of federal pandemic aid, and a relative lack of a safety net in the U.S. are leading to high rates of despair, experts say.
The pandemic’s grating effects and the electorate’s rebuke of a norm-busting presidency have dominated the national psyche. As Americans have bought guns at record rates, some research suggests a causal increase in those weapons being used against others.
The biggest spike in gun violence, notes Mr. Rosenfeld, came in the weeks of social unrest in late spring and summer after George Floyd was killed by police in Minneapolis.
What’s more, there is evidence that the bulk of the violence is occurring in poorer working class neighborhoods, such as New Orleans East, that have been hit hardest by the pandemic’s economic downturn and the backlash to calls for police reform.
Police activity – or lack of it – “is more likely a symptom of this concept of police legitimacy, where police pull back because people are upset and questioning their legitimacy,” says Mr. Asher in New Orleans. “And when people don’t believe that the police are going to be a natural arbiter, perhaps they’re more likely to take things into their hands – more retribution killings. But ... I’m skeptical that the explanation for why murder is going up everywhere is because police have somehow changed.”
After all, “murder is often mundane,” says Kim Davies, a researcher at Augusta University, usually involving people known to one another, often over insults or resentments fueled by alcohol and other drugs, the use of which have risen during the pandemic.
Interpersonal toxicity, she says, can be exacerbated by more foundational shifts – such as once in a century-level health crisis and a bitter election in which a peaceful transition has come under threat.
“When society’s norms and values are in flux or have disappeared or disintegrated, people don’t know how to behave,” says Ms. Davies, a sociologist who studies the dynamics of violent crime. “It’s a kind of normlessness that gives way to ‘Nothing matters.’ [The murder increase] is similar to spikes in suicide when we’ve had economic depressions. But nothing like this has ever happened.”
That unique dynamic also gives researchers hope that 2020 becomes a statistical anomaly.
“The strategy to reduce violence is, first and foremost, to subdue the pandemic,” says Mr. Rosenfeld, a professor emeritus and criminologist at the University of Missouri-St. Louis. “The second is to redouble smart policing activity. And the third is to take the essence of police reform seriously, because if police aren’t able to repair the relationship with communities in the cities that have experienced this uptick, I don’t think any crime reductions that might occur from more policing are going to last long.”


csmonitor--2020-12-14--Can the world outdo the Paris accord? Climate summit dreams big.

“ It ’ s all about putting some more meat on the bone , ” says Rachel Cleetus , policy director with the climate and energy program at the Union of Concerned Scientists .
It ’ s about “ the countries not just making aspirational pledges , but backing them up with credible , ambitious policy plans domestically to make sure that they can meet their international commitments.
” Still , on Saturday , global leaders gathered once again – this time virtually – for the Climate Ambition Summit 2020 to reaffirm their commitment to the goals set in France @ @ @ @ @ @ @ forth even more ambitious plans to curb climate change .
But underlying the Paris Agreement was the understanding that those ambitious plans would not actually achieve the agreed-upon international goal of limiting global warming to an increase of 1.5 degrees Celsius .
That goal seemed even less attainable when the U.S. , the world ’ s second largest greenhouse gas emitter after China , dropped out under President Donald Trump .
Five years ago , representatives from nations around the world gathered in Paris and agreed to take drastic measures to curb climate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a moment of unity and hope .
For many , it was a moment of unity and hope .
Representatives from nations around the world had gathered in Paris in December 2015 and agreed to take drastic measures to curb climate change .
But lurking behind the Paris Agreement was the understanding that those ambitious plans would not actually achieve the agreed-upon international goal of limiting global warming to an increase of 1.5 degrees Celsius , says Alden Meyer , a senior associate with E3G , a European climate change think tank .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” he says , so the parties agreed to reconvene and update their goals every five years .
On Saturday , the Paris Agreement ’ s fifth anniversary , participating global leaders gathered once again – this time virtually – to reaffirm their commitment to the accord and to put forth even bolder plans .
“ It ’ s all about putting some more meat on the bone , ” says Rachel Cleetus , policy director with the climate and energy program at the Union of Concerned Scientists .
It ’ s about @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pledges , but backing them up with credible , ambitious policy plans domestically to make sure that they can meet their international commitments.
” The Climate Ambition Summit 2020 indeed delivered more tangible plans to reach lofty goals from many international leaders .
But , experts say , there is still work to be done .
“ The summit has now sent strong signals that more countries and more businesses are ready to take the bold climate action on which our future security and prosperity depend , ” United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres @ @ @ @ @ @ @ an important step forward , but it ’ s not yet enough .
Let ’ s not forget that we are still on track to an increase of temperature of 3 degrees at least in the end of the century , which would be catastrophic.
” For Saturday ’ s summit , 71 countries submitted more ambitious national climate plans .
Many included significantly more aggressive goals than were outlined in Paris , and 45 focused on benchmarks for 2030 .
The European Union , for example , has now set higher goals @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Paris , promising to reduce net carbon emissions 55 % from 1990 levels by 2030 , a target that Mr. Meyer calls “ a significant step up in ambition.
” Several countries pledged to go net-zero by the middle of the century – or sooner , in many cases .
Perhaps most notably , Group of 20 countries like China , Japan , South Korea , the EU , and Argentina have joined that group .
Since the Paris accord , some countries have taken strides in reducing their emissions .
India , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a growing source of global emissions to being on track to meet international plans to limit warming to 2 degrees Celsius , according to the Climate Action Tracker .
The countries that have made notable progress tend to be smaller ones with minimal carbon emissions to start with .
But global carbon emissions have continued to rise , and most of the progress made in the last half a decade is hard to measure .
There has been a move away from coal in much of the West , coinciding with falling costs @ @ @ @ @ @ @ making those energy sources competitive with fossil fuels in many parts of the world .
“ We know how to do 80 % of emissions reduction , ” says Katharine Mach , associate professor at the University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science and a lead author for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ( IPCC ) Sixth Assessment Report and the U.S. Fourth National Climate Assessment .
“ Technologically we know how to do it , economically , it ’ s the right choice , the lower cost option @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , she says .
“ That we can get most of the way there , to the super aggressive targets , based on the technologies that exist now , for me , is always very hopeful.
” But this knowledge , she says , isn ’ t necessarily easy to translate into climate action .
There ’ s politics to contend with .
“ Climate models usually have been just physics of how the science works , or in the solutions model space , it ’ s just straight economics , ” she @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is how societies actually work.
” To Michael Mann , professor of atmospheric science at Pennsylvania State University and a lead author on the Observed Climate Variability and Change chapter of the IPCC Third Scientific Assessment Report , “ ambition is a close cousin of optimism and hope.
” “ Every bit of additional warming does damage , so we can never truly be too ambitious , ” he writes in an email .
“ But we must also recognize the political constraints we ’ re operating under and work to achieve progress @ @ @ @ @ @ @ A big concern for Paris Agreement participants and climate change activists is the absence of action from some of the biggest emitters , like Australia and the United States .
The U.S. emerged as a leader in climate pledges five years ago , but with the nation pulling out of the agreement under President Donald Trump , that changed sharply .
Now , President-elect Joe Biden , who made climate change a central part of his campaign , has said he plans to rejoin the Paris Agreement .
But much of the world @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be achieved when he takes office in January .
“ The world is painfully aware of the yo-yo nature of American politics ” and the partisan split , says Mr. Meyer .
“ The question people overseas have is , what can the U.S. deliver , given the political tensions ?
”

“It’s all about putting some more meat on the bone,” says Rachel Cleetus, policy director with the climate and energy program at the Union of Concerned Scientists. It’s about “the countries not just making aspirational pledges, but backing them up with credible, ambitious policy plans domestically to make sure that they can meet their international commitments.”
Still, on Saturday, global leaders gathered once again – this time virtually – for the Climate Ambition Summit 2020 to reaffirm their commitment to the goals set in France half a decade ago and to put forth even more ambitious plans to curb climate change.
Scientists agree that the emissions targets set by the Paris Agreement five years ago won’t rescue humanity from catastrophe. A virtual gathering on Saturday aimed to close the “ambition gap.”
But underlying the Paris Agreement was the understanding that those ambitious plans would not actually achieve the agreed-upon international goal of limiting global warming to an increase of 1.5 degrees Celsius. That goal seemed even less attainable when the U.S., the world’s second largest greenhouse gas emitter after China, dropped out under President Donald Trump.
Five years ago, representatives from nations around the world gathered in Paris and agreed to take drastic measures to curb climate change. For many, it was a moment of unity and hope.
For many, it was a moment of unity and hope. Representatives from nations around the world had gathered in Paris in December 2015 and agreed to take drastic measures to curb climate change.
But lurking behind the Paris Agreement was the understanding that those ambitious plans would not actually achieve the agreed-upon international goal of limiting global warming to an increase of 1.5 degrees Celsius, says Alden Meyer, a senior associate with E3G, a European climate change think tank.
There was an “ambition gap,” he says, so the parties agreed to reconvene and update their goals every five years.
Why We Wrote This Scientists agree that the emissions targets set by the Paris Agreement five years ago won’t rescue humanity from catastrophe. A virtual gathering on Saturday aimed to close the “ambition gap.”
On Saturday, the Paris Agreement’s fifth anniversary, participating global leaders gathered once again – this time virtually – to reaffirm their commitment to the accord and to put forth even bolder plans.
“It’s all about putting some more meat on the bone,” says Rachel Cleetus, policy director with the climate and energy program at the Union of Concerned Scientists. It’s about “the countries not just making aspirational pledges, but backing them up with credible, ambitious policy plans domestically to make sure that they can meet their international commitments.”
“An important step forward”
The Climate Ambition Summit 2020 indeed delivered more tangible plans to reach lofty goals from many international leaders. But, experts say, there is still work to be done.
“The summit has now sent strong signals that more countries and more businesses are ready to take the bold climate action on which our future security and prosperity depend,” United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres said on Saturday. “Today was an important step forward, but it’s not yet enough. Let’s not forget that we are still on track to an increase of temperature of 3 degrees at least in the end of the century, which would be catastrophic.”
For Saturday’s summit, 71 countries submitted more ambitious national climate plans. Many included significantly more aggressive goals than were outlined in Paris, and 45 focused on benchmarks for 2030. The European Union, for example, has now set higher goals than the ones it agreed to in Paris, promising to reduce net carbon emissions 55% from 1990 levels by 2030, a target that Mr. Meyer calls “a significant step up in ambition.”
Several countries pledged to go net-zero by the middle of the century – or sooner, in many cases. Perhaps most notably, Group of 20 countries like China, Japan, South Korea, the EU, and Argentina have joined that group.
Johanna Geron/AP View caption Hide caption European Council President Charles Michel (center) speaks during a media conference at an EU summit in Brussels, Dec. 11, 2020. European Union leaders reached a deal to cut the bloc's greenhouse gas emissions by at least 55% by the end of the decade compared with 1990 levels.
When science meets politics
Since the Paris accord, some countries have taken strides in reducing their emissions. India, for example, has gone from being a growing source of global emissions to being on track to meet international plans to limit warming to 2 degrees Celsius, according to the Climate Action Tracker. The countries that have made notable progress tend to be smaller ones with minimal carbon emissions to start with.
But global carbon emissions have continued to rise, and most of the progress made in the last half a decade is hard to measure.
There has been a move away from coal in much of the West, coinciding with falling costs of renewables, says Dr. Cleetus, making those energy sources competitive with fossil fuels in many parts of the world.
“We know how to do 80% of emissions reduction,” says Katharine Mach, associate professor at the University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science and a lead author for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report and the U.S. Fourth National Climate Assessment.
“Technologically we know how to do it, economically, it’s the right choice, the lower cost option,” in more and more places, she says. “That we can get most of the way there, to the super aggressive targets, based on the technologies that exist now, for me, is always very hopeful.”
But this knowledge, she says, isn’t necessarily easy to translate into climate action. There’s politics to contend with.
“Climate models usually have been just physics of how the science works, or in the solutions model space, it’s just straight economics,” she says. “In between the two is how societies actually work.”
Britta Pedersen/dpa/AP View caption Hide caption Activists light candles showing the slogan "Fight for 1 Point 5" in front of the Brandenburg Gate during a protest of the Fridays for Future movement on the fifth anniversary of the signing of the Paris Agreement, in Berlin, Dec. 11, 2020.
A fickle friend
To Michael Mann, professor of atmospheric science at Pennsylvania State University and a lead author on the Observed Climate Variability and Change chapter of the IPCC Third Scientific Assessment Report, “ambition is a close cousin of optimism and hope.”
“Every bit of additional warming does damage, so we can never truly be too ambitious,” he writes in an email. “But we must also recognize the political constraints we’re operating under and work to achieve progress that is possible under those constraints.”
A big concern for Paris Agreement participants and climate change activists is the absence of action from some of the biggest emitters, like Australia and the United States. The U.S. emerged as a leader in climate pledges five years ago, but with the nation pulling out of the agreement under President Donald Trump, that changed sharply.
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Now, President-elect Joe Biden, who made climate change a central part of his campaign, has said he plans to rejoin the Paris Agreement. But much of the world is waiting to see what can actually be achieved when he takes office in January.
“The world is painfully aware of the yo-yo nature of American politics” and the partisan split, says Mr. Meyer. “The question people overseas have is, what can the U.S. deliver, given the political tensions?”


csmonitor--2020-12-14--Why traditional retailers have the checkout blues

The difference is that these shifts enhanced , or at least preserved , the social aspect of shopping .
After 2020 , will shopping ever again be something we do together ?
This year ’ s disruptions will permanently transform the way we shop , much as the advent of department stores did around the time of the Civil War and the adoption of indoor shopping malls after World War II .
But what about brick-and-mortar stores ?
The near-term outlook is dire : As many as 25,000 could close this year in the United States , according to Coresight @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of America ’ s 1,000 malls to close in the next three to five years .
For Mr. Bottan , ordering products online is something of a relief .
And one thing 2020 has had in spades is online shopping , what with pandemic health concerns and restrictions on face-to-face commerce .
We ’ re still buying stuff , and when it comes to office chairs and web cameras we ’ re buying more than ever , thanks in part to federal stimulus dollars .
“ Going to the mall , looking for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with a passion , ” he adds .
Cara Salvatore loves a local corner bodega in Brooklyn , its specialty food items , and the cashiers who work there .
But the writer and online entrepreneur rarely goes there anymore because its aisles feel too narrow and cramped to maintain social distance from other people .
Instead , Mx .
Salvatore ’ s purchases happen online – for just about everything .
“ I don ’ t love letting somebody else pick what produce I get , ” Mx .
Salvatore says .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ Maryland are grocery shopping online now , “ which I never expected .
They ’ re in their 70s !
” It ’ s a similar story in Tacoma , Washington , for Rick and Sarah Daniel , MBA graduates who are not working as they care for Mr. Daniel ’ s ailing parents .
Men ’ s deodorant ?
A click away on Amazon Prime .
Bulk household items from Costco ?
A monthly delivery via Instacart , an online delivery service .
The only in-person shopping the couple still does is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the couch .
The Daniels want to get one so they don ’ t have to rely solely on their antique sofa from the 1800s that needs reupholstering .
They ’ ve looked at new sofas online , but feel uncomfortable buying sight unseen , even with all the fancy 3D imaging on furniture websites .
Yet they feel unsafe going into a store to sit on sofas .
“ We would prefer to wait and shop for that in person , so we can see and touch , ” says Ms. Daniel @ @ @ @ @ @ @ where consumers constrained by health concerns and state and local restrictions on face-to-face commerce have turned most shopping into a sterile contactless experience .
We ’ re still buying stuff , and when it comes to office chairs and web cameras we ’ re buying more than ever , thanks in part to federal stimulus dollars .
And while that stimulus effect is fading , Christmas sales should provide a welcome boost to retailers .
But this year ’ s festive shopping season will probably not be a “ Miracle on 34th Street @ @ @ @ @ @ @ biggest gains will go to online platforms like Amazon , whose revenues are already up by more than a third this year .
While Black Friday online sales surged by nearly a quarter compared to 2019 , traffic at physical stores plunged by more than half , according to separate surveys .
The near-term outlook for physical stores is dire : As many as 25,000 could close this year in the United States , nearly triple the closures last year , according to Coresight Research , which also expects a quarter of America @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the next three to five years .
Mall stalwarts like J.C. Penney , Neiman Marcus , and Brooks Brothers have all filed for bankruptcy .
The silver lining to all this disruption is that consumers and retailers have been jolted out of their old habits , forcing them to experiment with new ways of shopping .
Some of these changes will permanently transform the way we shop , much as the advent of department stores did around the time of the Civil War , the adoption of indoor shopping malls after World War @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the 1990s .
The difference is that most of those transformations enhanced , or at least preserved , the social aspect of shopping .
In the present era of change , that social aspect has all but evaporated .
Everyone agrees that online shopping will get bigger , more efficient , and more streamlined , and that the ease of ordering from home will be irresistible .
But the future of the physical shop , from the big-box outlet near the interstate to the independent home decor store on Main Street , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be something that we do together , a form of leisure and entertainment ?
Will it ever become fun again ?
As a Wall Street retail analyst , Greg Melich spends a lot of time figuring out how and where U.S. consumers are spending their dollars and which companies are best positioned to ring up their sales .
He ’ s tracked the meteoric growth in digital commerce during the pandemic .
Take Walmart , the nation ’ s biggest retailer : Online sales rose 79 % in the third quarter .
Still @ @ @ @ @ @ @ entertainment will be back , because most of us want to go back to shopping in person when it feels safe to do so again .
“ I ’ m not a believer that all retail goes online .
... People are social animals , ” he says .
The easing of the COVID-19 pandemic would provide short-term relief for shoppers who want to resume their social habits and indulge in what retail experts call “ revenge shopping.
” Ms. Daniel wants to go window-shopping with her mother again ; Mr. Daniel wants @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ There ’ s things we ’ re definitely looking forward to getting back to , ” he says .
Even after the pandemic is over , however , four shopping and lifestyle trends will drive the future of retail , according to Mr. Melich , a senior managing director at Evercore ISI , an investment bank .
Two of these trends are familiar : online shopping and a hybrid of online and on-site purchases .
The other two are more tied to the pandemic and thus more speculative .
But they could @ @ @ @ @ @ @ shop .
One is nesting at home .
The other is fleeing density , moving from crowded cities to less-crowded ones or to the suburbs .
Nesting is likely to continue , Mr. Melich believes , because many Americans prefer to spend more time working from home and are also making fewer trips to restaurants and other public forms of entertainment .
As a result they ’ re spending more on their home , creating a surge in sales for hardware and electronics stores , online furniture retailers like Wayfair , and even @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Columbia , Missouri , firm sells office chairs meant to accommodate folks who prefer sitting cross-legged .
When the pandemic hit he fretted that sales would drop for handmade chairs that cost $ 980 and up .
Instead , Mr. Matthews saw sales double .
Under a deal he has with Google , he offers chairs at a discount to its employees working from home .
The pandemic boom has allowed him to move production from a shared makerspace to a dedicated facility .
“ We ’ re helping folks make the home @ @ @ @ @ @ @ says .
The other trend is less certain .
Early evidence points to some residents exiting New York and San Francisco .
Other research finds a surge in temporary moves by urbanites who may be moving to less dense locations to wait out the virus .
However , should that movement outlast the pandemic , it could parallel the national exodus to newly built suburbs after World War II .
These two trends could end up boosting retail sales .
For roughly two decades , consumers have devoted an increasing share of their @ @ @ @ @ @ @ items sold in stores .
The pandemic has restricted or shut down venues that cram people together , whether it be airlines and restaurants or concert halls and movie theaters .
So if we continue to hunker down at home , then more of our disposable income could wind up in the hands of retailers .
That would be fine for Gustavo Bottan , a baby boomer and business development director at Northeastern University in Boston .
Since the start of the pandemic , he ’ s grown wary of crowded spaces like @ @ @ @ @ @ @ TV for now .
“ I have a large enough screen that I can kind of feel what [ the big-screen experience ] is at home.
” Not so fast , says Michael Upton , a software engineer in North Chelmsford , Massachusetts , who graduated from college a year ago .
“ I definitely would go see movies more than anything , ” he says .
It ’ s not just movie theaters that he misses during the pandemic .
“ The community experiences that we have lost – they ’ re @ @ @ @ @ @ @ we enjoy doing .
Imagine going to an amusement park when nobody ’ s there.
” The challenge for retailers is to understand what kinds of communal shopping experiences will attract consumers in the future .
Some are doubling down on online and hybrid options , knowing that even after the pandemic recedes there will be some who prefer to shop that way .
“ It ’ s easier for me to click a few buttons on my phone and get something in two days than to take an Uber to the grocery @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a sophomore at Eastman School of Music in Rochester , New York .
Even buying clothes online has become easier , she says , because sites like Boohoo help customers answer questions about specific brands ’ sizes that fit them , the curvature of their hips and belly , and their preferences in loose vs. tight-fitting clothes .
Ms. Kim still likes shopping in person .
But in the future , “ it would be less frequent.
” On a recent evening , retail consultant David Bishop placed an online order for curbside @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Curbside pickup , once a niche offering , has become a way of life for many pandemic shoppers wary of exposure to the coronavirus inside stores .
It has also been a lifeline for retailers that would otherwise have had to shut down during state or local lockdowns .
When Mr. Bishop ’ s notification came that his order was ready , he clicked on an app saying he was on his way and drove to the store .
He parked , and a minute later his order of nearly two dozen @ @ @ @ @ @ @ his car .
“ So it ’ s almost , like , magical , ” he says .
The next day , he worked with another grocer in Minneapolis where the average wait time for a curbside pickup was five minutes .
Five minutes may or may not be a long time to wait in a checkout line .
But in the competitive world of hybrid shopping , it can feel like an eternity to wait five minutes in your car , especially if you have a young child and you know that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a minute .
“ At that level , you start getting to a point where a customer can get frustrated , ” says Mr. Bishop , who is a partner at Brick Meets Click , a grocery consultancy in Barrington , Illinois .
To pull off curbside “ magic , ” Target and other retailers are investing heavily in sophisticated geolocation and other technology that lets staffers know when the customer ’ s car is heading to the store , when it enters the parking lot , and when it ’ s approaching @ @ @ @ @ @ @ further , Amazon has pioneered cashierless stores , selling meals and snack food in cities like Seattle , Chicago , New York , and San Francisco .
When shoppers take an item off the shelf , the system of cameras and sensors automatically charges it to their Amazon account .
If they put it back on the shelf , the system credits their account .
Once the system scans the Amazon app on the shoppers ’ phone , there ’ s nothing else to scan : no special grocery carts or checkout lines @ @ @ @ @ @ @ course , such technologies involve huge investments by multinational corporations , which raise privacy and competitive issues .
Location tracking already happens under the radar , but in the hands of big companies it may draw additional government scrutiny .
In 2019 , Facebook paid a $ 5 billion fine for deceiving customers about their control over privacy .
A House of Representatives subcommittee recently concluded that Amazon , along with Facebook , Apple , and Google , holds monopoly power .
It found that Amazon holds sway over half or more of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ third-party sellers on its site .
Amazon argues it isn ’ t a monopoly and has no incentive to undermine the sellers on its platforms .
Some shoppers are also wary of Amazon ’ s growing clout .
A recent survey of shoppers found that a third believe the company uses questionable practices , though nearly all respondents agreed that the company puts its consumers first .
“ I try really hard not to buy from Amazon , because I feel that it ’ s really hurting our small communities , ” says @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in Huntington Beach , California .
“ I always look locally first and if I can ’ t find it , I ’ ll go to Amazon.
” Just as the pandemic is global , so too are the trends at work in the retail sector .
Many of the pressures facing American brick-and-mortar stores are also roiling those in rich countries in Europe and Asia .
For hints of what the future may hold , retail experts say , look to China .
That ’ s partly because Chinese consumers have embraced @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , leapfrogging the mall era to shop on their smartphones .
China was also the first to experience the coronavirus and among the first to emerge from it .
“ China is now into the new normal , as it were , the first country in the recovery phase of COVID , and it serves as a signpost to the rest of the world , ” says Kanaiya Parekh , a Hong Kong-based retail expert for Bain & Co. Several retail trends in China are recognizable to U.S. retailers : the move from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ spending on health and wellness , everything from fresh fruit to sporting goods ; and what Mr. Parekh calls a flight to value .
Globally , luxury brand sales are down this year .
In China they continue to grow , but cheaper local brands are growing even faster .
Chinese online retailers led by behemoth Alibaba are also trying to make internet shopping fun by livestreaming celebrities selling goods .
Livestreaming product demonstrations and celebrity endorsements is nothing new , but China , where nearly 1 in 4 retail sales are done @ @ @ @ @ @ @ juggernaut .
Last year on Nov. 11 – China ’ s so-called Singles Day for online shopping – retailers sold about $ 60 billion worth of goods , says Mr. Parekh .
That ’ s more than Amazon sells in an entire month .
And livestream sales accounted for 7 % of the total .
This year on Singles Day , which actually stretched over several days , sales doubled to $ 120 billion and livestreaming made up 10 % of the total .
Livestream companies featured personalities such as Li Jiaqi , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , ” and even retired U.S. basketball legend Earvin “ Magic ” Johnson , who sold hemp- and cannabidiol-based creams on Alibaba ’ s Tmall platform .
As in China , U.S. retailers are trying to make the online experience easier , more efficient , and less intimidating , including for personalized items , such as clothing and groceries .
Still , many consumers report that the fun is still missing .
Ms. Morris , the retiree in Huntington Beach , still insists on grocery shopping in person .
“ Honestly , that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have .
It ’ s fun , ” she says .
It should be even more fun when all the stores are able to reopen , she adds .
“ It has been like a year that we haven ’ t gone to a home goods store or a home decor store .
We ’ re all going to go out and say : What is everyone doing ?
What do houses look like ?
Is gray out for a paint color ?
” Mr. Bottan , the baby boomer in Boston , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have never , ever liked shopping , ” he says .
“ Going to the mall , looking for this or that , I hate that with a passion.
” So for him , ordering online for home delivery is something of a relief .
But even he waxes poetic over the hours he ’ s spent in bookstores like Barnes & Noble .
“ You have a Starbucks there .
You can browse , ” he says .
“ You can go with your kids and read a book .
They ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ re selling an experience.
” Mx .
Salvatore of Brooklyn , the writer who buys and sells almost exclusively online , sells artsy homemade picture frames at Duskshaped .
But they ( Mx .
Salvatore identifies as nonbinary ) dream of opening a physical shop in the future , a place where shoppers can linger and browse .
Online retailers “ put all those algorithms in place to try to show you things that you wouldn ’ t have discovered otherwise , ” they say .
“ But I don ’ t @ @ @ @ @ @ @ walking into a store and seeing things you wouldn ’ t have seen otherwise.
” That ’ s hardly an old-fashioned view .
One of the myths in retail is that because younger customers are comfortable with digital technologies , they ’ re less interested in shopping in person .
In fact , researchers have found that by a wide margin both millennials and the generation born after 1995 prefer brick-and-mortar shopping to buying online .
“ I ’ m not really buying into ” online grocery shopping , says Mr. Upton , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s something very tactile about food , to see what you ’ re eating.
” It ’ s perhaps the melding of physical and online shopping – the hybrid or multichannel category – that could spur some of the biggest retail innovations over the next few years .
For most of history , people could only shop one way : in a physical location .
In the 1870s , Montgomery Ward introduced catalog shopping to the general public , a novelty made possible by the crisscrossing of railroads across the continent .
In @ @ @ @ @ @ @ back of the internet , a technology seeded by military research dollars .
Now in the pandemic era , retailers like Target are working on making ordering online and picking up at the store a seamless process .
And that could be just the start .
Other hybrid models will emerge , especially as retailers wring delays out of the system , says Kirthi Kalyanam , executive director of the Retail Management Institute at Santa Clara University in California .
Amazon , which already provides free two-day delivery to Prime members , now @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and same-day delivery on select items in several cities .
Its Amazon Fresh grocery service lets shoppers pick a two- to three-hour time slot for delivery .
Yummy , a hybrid grocer in Los Angeles , is going one better .
It now offers to deliver groceries to select LA neighborhoods and suburbs within 30 minutes of an online order .
The fee is $ 6.99 for a minimum order of $ 14.99 – or free if you spend $ 125 or more .
And in China , several delivery companies are also @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , says Mr. Parekh .
Stores will increasingly become places to showcase products rather than to stock inventory , says Mr. Kalyanam .
Online retailers will re-create their online persona in a physical space : Think Apple stores or Lululemon .
And consumers will have multiple ways to buy their goods .
Stores might not even carry inventory , but promise to deliver your purchase from a nearby warehouse in a half-hour .
“ Fast forward three or four years , you ’ re going to have ... five , six different big @ @ @ @ @ @ @ says Mr. Kalyanam .
“ Shopping as fun will come back , and bricks-and-mortar will be stronger than ever before for shopping as fun .
”

The difference is that these shifts enhanced, or at least preserved, the social aspect of shopping. After 2020, will shopping ever again be something we do together ?
This year’s disruptions will permanently transform the way we shop, much as the advent of department stores did around the time of the Civil War and the adoption of indoor shopping malls after World War II.
But what about brick-and-mortar stores? The near-term outlook is dire: As many as 25,000 could close this year in the United States, according to Coresight Research. The company expects a quarter of America’s 1,000 malls to close in the next three to five years.
For Mr. Bottan, ordering products online is something of a relief. And one thing 2020 has had in spades is online shopping, what with pandemic health concerns and restrictions on face-to-face commerce. We’re still buying stuff, and when it comes to office chairs and web cameras we’re buying more than ever, thanks in part to federal stimulus dollars.
The COVID-19 pandemic has made 2020 an inflection point in the rise of online shopping at the expense of physical stores, a shift on par with the postwar boom in shopping malls.
“Going to the mall, looking for this or that, I hate that with a passion,” he adds.
Cara Salvatore loves a local corner bodega in Brooklyn, its specialty food items, and the cashiers who work there. But the writer and online entrepreneur rarely goes there anymore because its aisles feel too narrow and cramped to maintain social distance from other people. Instead, Mx. Salvatore’s purchases happen online – for just about everything.
“I don’t love letting somebody else pick what produce I get,” Mx. Salvatore says. Even the writer’s parents in Maryland are grocery shopping online now, “which I never expected. They’re in their 70s!”
It’s a similar story in Tacoma, Washington, for Rick and Sarah Daniel, MBA graduates who are not working as they care for Mr. Daniel’s ailing parents. Men’s deodorant? A click away on Amazon Prime. Bulk household items from Costco? A monthly delivery via Instacart, an online delivery service. The only in-person shopping the couple still does is for fresh food.
Why We Wrote This The COVID-19 pandemic has made 2020 an inflection point in the rise of online shopping at the expense of physical stores, a shift on par with the postwar boom in shopping malls.
The conundrum is the couch.
The Daniels want to get one so they don’t have to rely solely on their antique sofa from the 1800s that needs reupholstering. They’ve looked at new sofas online, but feel uncomfortable buying sight unseen, even with all the fancy 3D imaging on furniture websites. Yet they feel unsafe going into a store to sit on sofas. “We would prefer to wait and shop for that in person, so we can see and touch,” says Ms. Daniel.
Welcome to pandemic shopping 2020, where consumers constrained by health concerns and state and local restrictions on face-to-face commerce have turned most shopping into a sterile contactless experience. We’re still buying stuff, and when it comes to office chairs and web cameras we’re buying more than ever, thanks in part to federal stimulus dollars. And while that stimulus effect is fading, Christmas sales should provide a welcome boost to retailers.
But this year’s festive shopping season will probably not be a “Miracle on 34th Street” for struggling brick-and-mortar retailers as the biggest gains will go to online platforms like Amazon, whose revenues are already up by more than a third this year. While Black Friday online sales surged by nearly a quarter compared to 2019, traffic at physical stores plunged by more than half, according to separate surveys. The near-term outlook for physical stores is dire: As many as 25,000 could close this year in the United States, nearly triple the closures last year, according to Coresight Research, which also expects a quarter of America’s 1,000 malls to close in the next three to five years. Mall stalwarts like J.C. Penney, Neiman Marcus, and Brooks Brothers have all filed for bankruptcy.
The silver lining to all this disruption is that consumers and retailers have been jolted out of their old habits, forcing them to experiment with new ways of shopping. Some of these changes will permanently transform the way we shop, much as the advent of department stores did around the time of the Civil War, the adoption of indoor shopping malls after World War II, and the birth of e-commerce in the 1990s.
The difference is that most of those transformations enhanced, or at least preserved, the social aspect of shopping. In the present era of change, that social aspect has all but evaporated. Everyone agrees that online shopping will get bigger, more efficient, and more streamlined, and that the ease of ordering from home will be irresistible.
But the future of the physical shop, from the big-box outlet near the interstate to the independent home decor store on Main Street, is less clear. Will shopping still be something that we do together, a form of leisure and entertainment? Will it ever become fun again?
Mike Segar/Reuters/File View caption Hide caption A grocery picker works in a Peapod grocery distribution center in Jersey City, New Jersey, Aug. 21, 2018. Peapod offers grocery delivery services, which many consumers have turned to amid the pandemic.
***
As a Wall Street retail analyst, Greg Melich spends a lot of time figuring out how and where U.S. consumers are spending their dollars and which companies are best positioned to ring up their sales. He’s tracked the meteoric growth in digital commerce during the pandemic. Take Walmart, the nation’s biggest retailer: Online sales rose 79% in the third quarter.
Still, Mr. Melich reckons that shopping as entertainment will be back, because most of us want to go back to shopping in person when it feels safe to do so again. “I’m not a believer that all retail goes online. ... People are social animals,” he says.
The easing of the COVID-19 pandemic would provide short-term relief for shoppers who want to resume their social habits and indulge in what retail experts call “revenge shopping.”
Ms. Daniel wants to go window-shopping with her mother again; Mr. Daniel wants to browse book and antique stores. “There’s things we’re definitely looking forward to getting back to,” he says.
Even after the pandemic is over, however, four shopping and lifestyle trends will drive the future of retail, according to Mr. Melich, a senior managing director at Evercore ISI, an investment bank. Two of these trends are familiar: online shopping and a hybrid of online and on-site purchases. The other two are more tied to the pandemic and thus more speculative. But they could prove far-reaching in how we live and shop.
One is nesting at home. The other is fleeing density, moving from crowded cities to less-crowded ones or to the suburbs.
Nesting is likely to continue, Mr. Melich believes, because many Americans prefer to spend more time working from home and are also making fewer trips to restaurants and other public forms of entertainment.
As a result they’re spending more on their home, creating a surge in sales for hardware and electronics stores, online furniture retailers like Wayfair, and even small entrepreneurs like Pack Matthews, whose Columbia, Missouri, firm sells office chairs meant to accommodate folks who prefer sitting cross-legged.
When the pandemic hit he fretted that sales would drop for handmade chairs that cost $980 and up. Instead, Mr. Matthews saw sales double. Under a deal he has with Google, he offers chairs at a discount to its employees working from home. The pandemic boom has allowed him to move production from a shared makerspace to a dedicated facility.
“We’re helping folks make the home working environment its healthiest,” he says.
The other trend is less certain. Early evidence points to some residents exiting New York and San Francisco. Other research finds a surge in temporary moves by urbanites who may be moving to less dense locations to wait out the virus. However, should that movement outlast the pandemic, it could parallel the national exodus to newly built suburbs after World War II.
These two trends could end up boosting retail sales. For roughly two decades, consumers have devoted an increasing share of their disposable income to experiences rather than physical items sold in stores. The pandemic has restricted or shut down venues that cram people together, whether it be airlines and restaurants or concert halls and movie theaters. So if we continue to hunker down at home, then more of our disposable income could wind up in the hands of retailers.
That would be fine for Gustavo Bottan, a baby boomer and business development director at Northeastern University in Boston. Since the start of the pandemic, he’s grown wary of crowded spaces like movie theaters and is sticking with his TV for now. “I have a large enough screen that I can kind of feel what [the big-screen experience] is at home.”
Not so fast, says Michael Upton, a software engineer in North Chelmsford, Massachusetts, who graduated from college a year ago. “I definitely would go see movies more than anything,” he says. It’s not just movie theaters that he misses during the pandemic. “The community experiences that we have lost – they’re a big part of human nature that we enjoy doing. Imagine going to an amusement park when nobody’s there.”
Ann Hermes/Staff View caption Hide caption “The community experiences that we have lost – they’re a big part of human nature that we enjoy doing.” – Michael Upton, software engineer and moviegoer
***
The challenge for retailers is to understand what kinds of communal shopping experiences will attract consumers in the future. Some are doubling down on online and hybrid options, knowing that even after the pandemic recedes there will be some who prefer to shop that way.
“It’s easier for me to click a few buttons on my phone and get something in two days than to take an Uber to the grocery store,” says Grace Kim, a sophomore at Eastman School of Music in Rochester, New York. Even buying clothes online has become easier, she says, because sites like Boohoo help customers answer questions about specific brands’ sizes that fit them, the curvature of their hips and belly, and their preferences in loose vs. tight-fitting clothes.
Ms. Kim still likes shopping in person. But in the future, “it would be less frequent.”
On a recent evening, retail consultant David Bishop placed an online order for curbside pickup at a Target store near Chicago. Curbside pickup, once a niche offering, has become a way of life for many pandemic shoppers wary of exposure to the coronavirus inside stores. It has also been a lifeline for retailers that would otherwise have had to shut down during state or local lockdowns.
When Mr. Bishop’s notification came that his order was ready, he clicked on an app saying he was on his way and drove to the store. He parked, and a minute later his order of nearly two dozen grocery items had been brought out to his car. “So it’s almost, like, magical,” he says.
The next day, he worked with another grocer in Minneapolis where the average wait time for a curbside pickup was five minutes. Five minutes may or may not be a long time to wait in a checkout line. But in the competitive world of hybrid shopping, it can feel like an eternity to wait five minutes in your car, especially if you have a young child and you know that other retailers can do the job in a minute.
“At that level, you start getting to a point where a customer can get frustrated,” says Mr. Bishop, who is a partner at Brick Meets Click, a grocery consultancy in Barrington, Illinois.
To pull off curbside “magic,” Target and other retailers are investing heavily in sophisticated geolocation and other technology that lets staffers know when the customer’s car is heading to the store, when it enters the parking lot, and when it’s approaching the pickup area.
Going a step further, Amazon has pioneered cashierless stores, selling meals and snack food in cities like Seattle, Chicago, New York, and San Francisco. When shoppers take an item off the shelf, the system of cameras and sensors automatically charges it to their Amazon account. If they put it back on the shelf, the system credits their account. Once the system scans the Amazon app on the shoppers’ phone, there’s nothing else to scan: no special grocery carts or checkout lines before they leave the store.
Ted S. Warren/AP View caption Hide caption An Amazon employee demonstrates how to scan a smartphone code to use at an Amazon Go Grocery store in Seattle, Feb. 21, 2020.
Of course, such technologies involve huge investments by multinational corporations, which raise privacy and competitive issues. Location tracking already happens under the radar, but in the hands of big companies it may draw additional government scrutiny. In 2019, Facebook paid a $5 billion fine for deceiving customers about their control over privacy.
A House of Representatives subcommittee recently concluded that Amazon, along with Facebook, Apple, and Google, holds monopoly power. It found that Amazon holds sway over half or more of U.S. online retail sales by dominating the third-party sellers on its site. Amazon argues it isn’t a monopoly and has no incentive to undermine the sellers on its platforms.
Some shoppers are also wary of Amazon’s growing clout. A recent survey of shoppers found that a third believe the company uses questionable practices, though nearly all respondents agreed that the company puts its consumers first.
“I try really hard not to buy from Amazon, because I feel that it’s really hurting our small communities,” says Betsy Morris, a retired baby boomer in Huntington Beach, California. “I always look locally first and if I can’t find it, I’ll go to Amazon.”
***
Just as the pandemic is global, so too are the trends at work in the retail sector. Many of the pressures facing American brick-and-mortar stores are also roiling those in rich countries in Europe and Asia. For hints of what the future may hold, retail experts say, look to China.
That’s partly because Chinese consumers have embraced digital commerce more quickly than Americans have, leapfrogging the mall era to shop on their smartphones. China was also the first to experience the coronavirus and among the first to emerge from it.
“China is now into the new normal, as it were, the first country in the recovery phase of COVID, and it serves as a signpost to the rest of the world,” says Kanaiya Parekh, a Hong Kong-based retail expert for Bain & Co.
Several retail trends in China are recognizable to U.S. retailers: the move from in-store to online sales; growth in spending on health and wellness, everything from fresh fruit to sporting goods; and what Mr. Parekh calls a flight to value. Globally, luxury brand sales are down this year. In China they continue to grow, but cheaper local brands are growing even faster.
Chinese online retailers led by behemoth Alibaba are also trying to make internet shopping fun by livestreaming celebrities selling goods. Livestreaming product demonstrations and celebrity endorsements is nothing new, but China, where nearly 1 in 4 retail sales are done online, has turned it into a juggernaut.
Last year on Nov. 11 – China’s so-called Singles Day for online shopping – retailers sold about $60 billion worth of goods, says Mr. Parekh. That’s more than Amazon sells in an entire month. And livestream sales accounted for 7% of the total. This year on Singles Day, which actually stretched over several days, sales doubled to $120 billion and livestreaming made up 10% of the total.
Livestream companies featured personalities such as Li Jiaqi, China’s “King of Lipstick,” and even retired U.S. basketball legend Earvin “Magic” Johnson, who sold hemp- and cannabidiol-based creams on Alibaba’s Tmall platform.
As in China, U.S. retailers are trying to make the online experience easier, more efficient, and less intimidating, including for personalized items, such as clothing and groceries. Still, many consumers report that the fun is still missing.
Ann Hermes/Staff View caption Hide caption The sun sets over cars in the parking lot of Walmart’s Intelligent Retail Lab on Nov. 19, 2020, in Levittown, New York. The facility is the only Walmart AI lab location of its kind. Walmart’s e-commerce sales rose 79% in the third quarter.
Ms. Morris, the retiree in Huntington Beach, still insists on grocery shopping in person. “Honestly, that’s the only social interaction I have. It’s fun,” she says.
It should be even more fun when all the stores are able to reopen, she adds. “It has been like a year that we haven’t gone to a home goods store or a home decor store. We’re all going to go out and say: What is everyone doing? What do houses look like? Is gray out for a paint color?”
Mr. Bottan, the baby boomer in Boston, offers a different perspective. “I have never, ever liked shopping,” he says. “Going to the mall, looking for this or that, I hate that with a passion.” So for him, ordering online for home delivery is something of a relief.
But even he waxes poetic over the hours he’s spent in bookstores like Barnes & Noble. “You have a Starbucks there. You can browse,” he says. “You can go with your kids and read a book. They’re not selling a book; they’re selling an experience.”
***
Mx. Salvatore of Brooklyn, the writer who buys and sells almost exclusively online, sells artsy homemade picture frames at Duskshaped. But they (Mx. Salvatore identifies as nonbinary) dream of opening a physical shop in the future, a place where shoppers can linger and browse.
Online retailers “put all those algorithms in place to try to show you things that you wouldn’t have discovered otherwise,” they say. “But I don’t think it compares to the experience of walking into a store and seeing things you wouldn’t have seen otherwise.”
Ann Hermes/Staff View caption Hide caption “I don’t think [online shopping] compares to the experience of walking into a store and seeing things you wouldn’t have seen otherwise.” – Cara Salvatore, online entrepreneur
That’s hardly an old-fashioned view. One of the myths in retail is that because younger customers are comfortable with digital technologies, they’re less interested in shopping in person. In fact, researchers have found that by a wide margin both millennials and the generation born after 1995 prefer brick-and-mortar shopping to buying online.
“I’m not really buying into” online grocery shopping, says Mr. Upton, the software engineer. “There’s something very tactile about food, to see what you’re eating.”
It’s perhaps the melding of physical and online shopping – the hybrid or multichannel category – that could spur some of the biggest retail innovations over the next few years.
For most of history, people could only shop one way: in a physical location. In the 1870s, Montgomery Ward introduced catalog shopping to the general public, a novelty made possible by the crisscrossing of railroads across the continent. In the 1990s, e-commerce emerged on the back of the internet, a technology seeded by military research dollars.
Now in the pandemic era, retailers like Target are working on making ordering online and picking up at the store a seamless process. And that could be just the start. Other hybrid models will emerge, especially as retailers wring delays out of the system, says Kirthi Kalyanam, executive director of the Retail Management Institute at Santa Clara University in California.
Amazon, which already provides free two-day delivery to Prime members, now offers one-day delivery nationwide for a fee and same-day delivery on select items in several cities. Its Amazon Fresh grocery service lets shoppers pick a two- to three-hour time slot for delivery.
Jason Redmond/Reuters View caption Hide caption A woman walks through an Amazon Go Grocery store in Seattle, Feb. 21, 2020. Amazon has opened several convenience stores using an app and cashierless technology.
Yummy, a hybrid grocer in Los Angeles, is going one better. It now offers to deliver groceries to select LA neighborhoods and suburbs within 30 minutes of an online order. The fee is $6.99 for a minimum order of $14.99 – or free if you spend $125 or more. And in China, several delivery companies are also moving to 30-minute delivery for online orders, says Mr. Parekh.
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Stores will increasingly become places to showcase products rather than to stock inventory, says Mr. Kalyanam. Online retailers will re-create their online persona in a physical space: Think Apple stores or Lululemon. And consumers will have multiple ways to buy their goods. Stores might not even carry inventory, but promise to deliver your purchase from a nearby warehouse in a half-hour.
“Fast forward three or four years, you’re going to have ... five, six different big, familiar ways of shopping,” says Mr. Kalyanam. “Shopping as fun will come back, and bricks-and-mortar will be stronger than ever before for shopping as fun.”