csmonitor--2020-08-17--Monday Sunrise Briefing: When democracy hangs on snail mail

The buzz this weekend was all about trust in the November election results .
For different reasons , Republican and Democratic leaders are questioning the credibility of mail-in voting .
Democrats say President Trump is deliberately undermining a vote delivery system during a pandemic .
But White House officials on Sunday said it was too late to safely expand vote by mail ( beyond the nine states that now have universal mail-in voting ) .
“ If you have a tried-and-true system , where there are some security mechanisms built in , that ’ s acceptable , President Trump ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ “ Face the Nation .
“ But you can ’ t have a new system and expect Americans to have confidence in the election.
” Sunday evening , House Speaker Nancy Pelosi called lawmakers back from their August recess to vote this week on a USPS bill intended to address concerns about the mail delays .
Mr. Trump is “ sabotaging our democracy , ” Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders claimed on NBC ’ s “ Meet the Press .
“ I guess that he thinks that a suppressed vote , a lower @ @ @ @ @ @ @ win the election.
” The U.S .
Postal Service said Sunday it would postpone removing its blue mailboxes in 18 states until mid-November .
2 .
People-power protests .
In two nations , some 4,600 miles apart , citizens took the streets Sunday demanding democratic change .
In Thailand , some 10,000 turned out - the largest protest in years - in support of a peaceful student-led movement that has three core demands : hold new elections , amend the constitution , and end the intimidation of government critics .
In Minsk , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for a rerun of last Sunday ’ s election in a speech to some 50,000 supporters .
But a nearby counter-protest drew an estimated 200,000 people , an unprecedented show of support for the opposition .
It was the eighth straight day of anti-government demonstrations .
Mr. Lukashenko said Russian President Vladimir Putin had agreed to send security assistance if Lukashenko asked for it .
Democrats convene , virtually .
The U.S. Democratic National Convention begins today and runs through Thursday .
Monday night ’ s scheduled speakers : Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar @ @ @ @ @ @ @ N.Y. Gov .
Andrew Cuomo , Michigan Gov .
Gov .
Gretchen Whitmer , Rep. Jim Clyburn of South Carolina , Rep. Gwen Moore from Wisconsin , Alabama Sen. Doug Jones , Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders , and former first lady Michelle Obama .
High hoops .
The first round of the NBA playoffs begin today with eight teams from the Western Conference and eight teams from the Eastern Conference playing at Disney World .
No team has a home court .
Four games will be played each day .
Women ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ marks the 100th anniversary of the ratification of the 19th Amendment , giving women equal voting rights with men .
Exercising democratic rights .
People in Alaska , Florida , and Wyoming are expected to vote in primary elections .
Meeting on the Med .
German Chancellor Angela Merkel meets with French President Emmanuel Macron in his vacation residence on the Mediterranean , for talks on Europe 's pandemic financial rescue plan , Brexit , and tensions in Belarus and between Greece and Turkey .
Big screens reopens .
AMC , the world @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to reopen more than 100 theaters in the U.S .
Admission price : 15 cents per ticket .
European soccer finals.The UEFA Europa League finals pits Sevilla against the winner of the Monday match : Inter Milan or Shakhtar Donetsk .
Nothing says generosity like free concrete .
The McNeal family in Auburn Hills , Michigan , paid $ 26,000 to have a concrete ramp built to their house so that their wheelchair-bound granddaughter , Kaylee , could get in and out .
Unscrupulous contractors spent four months building something that failed to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ no railings .
Jeremy Plunkett and Tiffany J. Snyder , owners of Bonnici Concrete in Utica , Michigan had nothing to do with the original installation .
But when they heard about what happened , they decided , “ We really need to do something about this , '' Mr. Plunkett said .
This past week , Bonnici Concrete workers removed the poorly built ramp , and installed a new one , up to code .
And they added a concrete apron in front of the garage .
No charge .
`` They @ @ @ @ @ @ @ love them , '' Michelle , Kaylee ’ s mom , told Fox News in Detroit .
Start your week with a recent story that inspired Monitor readers : How two Nigerian women are breaking into comedy ’ s boys club In tonight ’ s Daily Edition , watch for our story about the historic evolution of voting rights among nonwhite U.S. women .
Finally , check out the Monitor ’ s selected stories from Friday 's subscription-only Daily Edition : • For working women , a recession like no other • From @ @ @ @ @ @ @ : One group easing the transition • ‘ Don ’ t stop having optimism ’ : combat vets on surviving the pandemic • Waterboys frontman calmly waits for the lyrics to come .
They always do .
Editor ’ s note : As a public service , all our pandemic coverage is free .
No paywall .
This is a beta test - an experiment with an early Monday morning news update .
Please give us your feedback via the link below and let us know what you think .
Thank you !

The buzz this weekend was all about trust in the November election results. For different reasons, Republican and Democratic leaders are questioning the credibility of mail-in voting. Democrats say President Trump is deliberately undermining a vote delivery system during a pandemic. But White House officials on Sunday said it was too late to safely expand vote by mail (beyond the nine states that now have universal mail-in voting). “If you have a tried-and-true system, where there are some security mechanisms built in, that’s acceptable, President Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner said on CBS’ “Face the Nation. “But you can’t have a new system and expect Americans to have confidence in the election.”
Sunday evening, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi called lawmakers back from their August recess to vote this week on a USPS bill intended to address concerns about the mail delays. Mr. Trump is “sabotaging our democracy,” Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders claimed on NBC’s “Meet the Press. “I guess that he thinks that a suppressed vote, a lower voter turnout, will ... help him win the election.” The U.S. Postal Service said Sunday it would postpone removing its blue mailboxes in 18 states until mid-November.
2. People-power protests. In two nations, some 4,600 miles apart, citizens took the streets Sunday demanding democratic change. In Thailand, some 10,000 turned out - the largest protest in years - in support of a peaceful student-led movement that has three core demands: hold new elections, amend the constitution, and end the intimidation of government critics.
Why We Wrote This Good morning! Welcome to your Monday, August 17, 2020, sunrise briefing. Here are three news events from this past weekend (while you may have been picking blueberries, doing carpentry, and enjoying an offline life). Also, what to look for in the news this week.
In Minsk, Belarus, President Alexander Lukashenko rejected calls for a rerun of last Sunday’s election in a speech to some 50,000 supporters. But a nearby counter-protest drew an estimated 200,000 people, an unprecedented show of support for the opposition. It was the eighth straight day of anti-government demonstrations. Mr. Lukashenko said Russian President Vladimir Putin had agreed to send security assistance if Lukashenko asked for it.
John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports View caption Hide caption Montreal Canadiens goaltender Charlie Lindgren before game three against the Philadelphia Flyers in the 2020 Stanley Cup Playoffs at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto. The Flyers won, 1-0, Sunday.
Look Ahead
Monday, Aug. 17
Democrats convene, virtually. The U.S. Democratic National Convention begins today and runs through Thursday. Monday night’s scheduled speakers: Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar, Nevada Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, N.Y. Gov. Andrew Cuomo, Michigan Gov. Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, Rep. Jim Clyburn of South Carolina, Rep. Gwen Moore from Wisconsin, Alabama Sen. Doug Jones, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, and former first lady Michelle Obama.
High hoops. The first round of the NBA playoffs begin today with eight teams from the Western Conference and eight teams from the Eastern Conference playing at Disney World. No team has a home court. Four games will be played each day.
Tuesday, Aug. 18
Women’s right to vote. The United States marks the 100th anniversary of the ratification of the 19th Amendment, giving women equal voting rights with men.
Exercising democratic rights. People in Alaska, Florida, and Wyoming are expected to vote in primary elections.
Thursday, Aug. 20
Meeting on the Med. German Chancellor Angela Merkel meets with French President Emmanuel Macron in his vacation residence on the Mediterranean, for talks on Europe's pandemic financial rescue plan, Brexit, and tensions in Belarus and between Greece and Turkey.
Big screens reopens. AMC, the world's largest movie theater chain, plans to reopen more than 100 theaters in the U.S. Admission price: 15 cents per ticket.
Friday, Aug. 21
European soccer finals.The UEFA Europa League finals pits Sevilla against the winner of the Monday match: Inter Milan or Shakhtar Donetsk.
Generosity Watch
Nothing says generosity like free concrete.
Let me explain.
The McNeal family in Auburn Hills, Michigan, paid $26,000 to have a concrete ramp built to their house so that their wheelchair-bound granddaughter, Kaylee, could get in and out.
Unscrupulous contractors spent four months building something that failed to meet the building code, and had no railings.
Jeremy Plunkett and Tiffany J. Snyder, owners of Bonnici Concrete in Utica, Michigan had nothing to do with the original installation. But when they heard about what happened, they decided, “We really need to do something about this," Mr. Plunkett said.
This past week, Bonnici Concrete workers removed the poorly built ramp, and installed a new one, up to code. And they added a concrete apron in front of the garage. No charge.
"They're my guardian angels. I just love them," Michelle, Kaylee’s mom, told Fox News in Detroit.
Hidden gem
Courtesy of HypeBuzz View caption Hide caption Comedian Maraji (ne Gloria Oloruntobi) is part of a generation of women breaking into comedy in Nigeria.
Start your week with a recent story that inspired Monitor readers:
How two Nigerian women are breaking into comedy’s boys club
Sneak preview
In tonight’s Daily Edition, watch for our story about the historic evolution of voting rights among nonwhite U.S. women.
Get stories that
empower and uplift daily. By signing up, you agree to our Privacy Policy Already a subscriber? Log in to hide ads.
Finally, check out the Monitor’s selected stories from Friday's subscription-only Daily Edition:
Editor’s note: As a public service, all our pandemic coverage is free. No paywall.
This is a beta test - an experiment with an early Monday morning news update. Please give us your feedback via the link below and let us know what you think. Thank you!


csmonitor--2020-08-17--Why do Americans think more immigration means more crime? (audio)

The findings , over decades , are clear : Immigrants are less likely to commit crimes than native-born Americans .
Yet 42 % of Americans still say immigration is making crime worse in the United States , according to a 2019 Gallup Poll .
“ It ’ s very frustrating , because as much data as we have , the gap between perception and reality stays pretty firmly established , ” says Charis Kubrin , a professor at the University of California , Irvine .
In this episode of “ Perception Gaps : Locked Up , ” our reporters explore @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , ” the policies the stereotype has produced , and the impact our assumptions have on the institutions we build .
Note : This is Episode 3 of Season 2 .
To listen to the other episodes and sign up for the newsletter , please visit the “ Perception Gaps : Locked Up ” main page .
This audio story was designed to be heard .
We strongly encourage you to experience it with your ears , but we understand that is not an option for everybody .
You can find the audio @ @ @ @ @ @ @ unable to listen , we have provided a transcript of the story below .
Samantha Laine Perfas : This is Charis Kubrin , a professor at the University of California , Irvine .
Charis studies the link between immigration and crime .
Sam : Charis ’ s students are not alone when it comes to these misperceptions .
Many politicians still run on a “ tough on crime ” approach to immigration .
And policies continue to be put in place to catch and deport unauthorized immigrants in the U.S. and reduce immigration @ @ @ @ @ @ @ often to keep Americans safe .
But the stereotype of the dangerous immigrant… that ’ s a perception gap .
Sam : I ’ m Samantha Laine Perfas and this is `` Perception Gaps : Locked Up , '' by The Christian Science Monitor .
Sam : Welcome back to Season 2 of the series .
In this season , we ’ re taking an in-depth look at mass incarceration .
So if you haven ’ t yet , we encourage you to go back and listen to our two previous episodes – @ @ @ @ @ @ @ U.S. prison system , and the role race plays in criminal justice .
You can find all our material , including Season 1 , at csmonitor.com/perceptiongaps .
In June 2019 , a Gallup Poll found that 42 % of Americans said immigration is making crime worse in the U.S .
But data show that ’ s not true .
Research consistently finds that immigrants are less likely to commit crimes than native-born Americans .
In 2019 , for example , the Cato Institute reported that immigrants with and without documentation both have a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the U.S. A study published in 2018 in the journal Criminology found that unauthorized immigration does not increase violent crime .
And yet another paper , by researchers at the University of California , Davis , showed that increasing deportations in areas with a lot of unauthorized immigrants didn ’ t reduce local crime rates .
It 's true that many people come to the U.S. illegally .
But if we 're going to resolve the tough questions surrounding our immigration system , it 's important that we do n't equate `` @ @ @ @ @ @ @ '' – with `` criminal . ''
In this episode , we ’ ll look at why this perception matters , the policies that have resulted from it , and the impact on families , communities , and the criminal justice system .
First , let ’ s go back to Charis Kubrin .
She made it pretty clear to us that the research we mentioned about crime and immigration – those are just the latest findings .
Criminologists have done variations of these studies for years .
Sam : But , according @ @ @ @ @ @ @ really stands out is fear .
Sam : When allowed to dominate rhetoric and drive policy , fear can have immediate consequences .
It feels like a long time ago now , but we saw this at the beginning of 2020 .
[ Audio clip from ABC News : “ ... the top Iranian general has been killed in an airstrike.. ” ] [ Audio clip from CBS This Morning : “ ... is a dramatic escalation in the confrontation between the U.S. and Iran… ” ] In early January , President Donald @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Qassem Soleimani via drone strike .
It was a response , U.S. officials said , to ‘ an escalating series of attacks ’ by Iran .
After that , political tensions between the two countries surged .
Dozens of Iranians and Iranian Americans – many coming from vacation or work trips – were stopped by the Department of Homeland Security along the border with Canada .
Some Iranian students were deported even though they had valid visas .
Sam : This is Hoda Katebi , a writer and activist who helped organize support @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Hoda , the situation felt personal .
As the daughter of Iranian immigrants , she was often regarded with prejudice and fear in her hometown .
Hoda : Growing up in Oklahoma as someone who is visibly Muslim – so I wear the hijab , and I started wearing it in sixth grade – that was a way in which I had normalized such a deep level of violence for myself .
Like I thought it was normal to be called a terrorist .
I thought it was normal to cross the street @ @ @ @ @ @ @ over .
That was just my everyday growing up .
Sam : Can you talk a little bit about the concept of being “ othered ” ?
What does that mean and what does that feel like ?
Hoda : I do n't think I 've ever been asked that question .
I think that it 's , it ’ s a very difficult experience to grow up in a place where no one looked like me , and everything that you believe in or everything that you look like is always bad @ @ @ @ @ @ @ aspect of our sense of beauty , our sense of confidence .
And I think that that 's something that is – it does n't go away easily .
Sam : Why do you think that feeling of being othered is such a common experience for immigrants ?
Hoda : Well , I mean , I think that this country is built on othering .
And I think that that 's really important to contextualize , is that this country has always made it incredibly difficult for immigrants and refugees to come to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ seeing right now is something that also isn ’ t new .
Sam : The Trump administration has been aggressive on immigration enforcement , and the president ’ s rhetoric is prone to linking immigrants and crime .
But – and this is an important ‘ but ’ – President Trump is far from the first politician to draw a line between who belongs here and who doesn ’ t .
Sam : Muzaffar has worked on immigration policy issues for decades .
He says that Americans have been trying to keep certain @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the country was founded .
Sam : For example , in the 1800s .
Sam : Muzaffar says that no matter who the new arrivals were , the message was always some variation of : “ They ’ re not like us .
They ’ re tainting our values and culture .
They don ’ t belong.
” Sam : In 1965 , President Lyndon Johnson signed the Immigration and Nationality Act .
[ Audio clip from KCTS9 , President Lyndon B. Johnson : “ ... that those who seek refuge here in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ law was supposed to make U.S. immigration policy more racially equitable , in part by ending quotas that were biased toward immigrants from northern and western Europe .
Over time , this law changed the demographic makeup of the entire country .
Muzaffar : ‘ Til 1965 , about 85 percent of our legal immigration was European or Canadian .
Today , 85 percent of our immigration is Asian and Hispanic , fundamentally .
So the frame changes , but race is always an important part of the immigration debate .
Sam : @ @ @ @ @ @ @ coming into the country helps explain why the stereotype of the dangerous immigrant is so persistent .
But race is only part of the story .
In previous episodes , we talked about how the 1980s and ‘ 90s saw an unprecedented expansion of our prisons and jails as a result of “ tough on crime ” laws .
Those ideas also seeped into the immigration debate .
The Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986 , for example , increased border patrol and made it illegal to hire unauthorized immigrants .
And @ @ @ @ @ @ @ security – and the security of American jobs for Americans – became the basis for calls to restrict immigration .
[ Action News clip : “ ... Good evening .
Politicians from several states tonight are sharply criticizing President Carter ’ s handling of the Cuban refugee problem .
The governor of Texas , Bill Clemens , says the president has literally opened the floodgates… ” ] The Clinton administration also cracked down on immigration in the ‘ 90s , as Mexico faced a recession that sent thousands of people north to find @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , President Bill Clinton : “ ... in this country are rightly disturbed by the large numbers of illegal aliens entering our country .
That ’ s why our administration has moved aggressively to secure our borders more .
By hiring twice as many border guards .
By deporting twice as many criminal aliens as ever before… ” ] Then , after 9/11 , the Bush administration created the Department of Homeland Security and the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement , or ICE .
Billions of dollars went into militarizing the border .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ George W. Bush speech : “ We got to strengthen security along our borders to stop people from entering illegally .
In other words , we got to stop people from coming here in the first place.
” ] And under President Obama , the U.S. deported more people from the country than at any other time period .
These policies went a long way toward cementing , in the minds of the public , that crime and immigration go hand in hand – even though they don ’ t .
The 2008 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ millions of suddenly unemployed Americans looked for someone to blame .
Sam : This is Jonathan Metzl , a professor of sociology and psychiatry at Vanderbilt University .
In 2019 , he published a book called “ Dying of Whiteness , ” about the consequences of white racial resentment .
Sam : In 2016 , the political power of this idea became clear .
[ Audio montage , President Donald Trump : “ ... they ’ re bringing drugs , they ’ re bringing crime , they ’ re rapists… ” “ ... @ @ @ @ @ @ @ peaceful citizens… ” “ ... we will build a great wall along the Southern border.. ” ] Sam : That ’ s Muzaffar Chishti again , from the Migration Policy Institute .
He says that while we ’ ve seen other candidates run on that message in the past , they almost never made it beyond their primaries .
Sam : So what does that playbook look like for those most affected by it ?
When the government is guided by leaders who have emphasized the idea that refugees , asylum seekers , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that affect immigrants and the communities around them ?
Sam : We reached out to Laura because she is living and working at the center of our immigration debate right now .
She was born and raised in South Texas , along the border with Mexico .
For years she was an attorney for ICE , presenting – among other things – the government ’ s case against immigrants seeking asylum in the U.S. Now Laura works on the other side of the courtroom , defending the migrants she used to prosecute .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ Texas and the border for the Monitor , led the conversation with her .
Henry Gass : So I 'd like to start with your experiences growing up on the border .
I mean , you , you grew up in the Rio Grande Valley , I believe .
Can you talk a bit about that ?
Tell us what that was like ?
Laura : So if anybody is familiar with the Rio Grande Valley , it 's the southernmost tip of Texas .
In terms of the border , the border @ @ @ @ @ @ @ does today .
There was a real back and forth flow of people , goods .
We would celebrate our Christmas Eve at a well-known restaurant on top of a pharmacy in Matamoros called Garcia ’ s .
My dentist was on the Mexican side of the border .
So there was a real back and forth , ease of movement .
And it just felt like one community .
Henry : Earlier in your career , you worked with ICE as a prosecutor .
Can you tell us sort of when that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that ?
Laura : I had a long love affair with law school .
It took me about seven years to finish law school at night .
When I finally finished , I decided that I wasn ’ t going to do policy work , so I moved out to California .
And I realized I really do – I do love the law and I want to get any job that will immediately put me into a courtroom .
And when I saw the position with ICE , I consulted with mentors @ @ @ @ @ @ @ advised me that I would have an extreme amount of power and authority over the cases that I would see , that I would learn immigration law from the inside very quickly , and that more people with my mindset , with my background , with my experience growing up – my sensibilities , I guess – should be on that side of the table .
And so I took that advice to heart .
Sam : This was during the Obama administration .
At the time , ICE was facing criticism over @ @ @ @ @ @ @ unaccompanied children coming to the border from Central America .
Sam : Laura was never fully comfortable with her role at ICE .
One of the last straws for her : a case that involved a woman seeking asylum from an African country where sexual violence was being used as a tool of war .
Sam : Laura left ICE just before the 2016 election .
After President Trump won , he started turning his campaign promises into policy .
Family separations happened more frequently under the “ zero tolerance ” policy announced @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it was necessary to check the tide of unauthorized immigrants coming to the border .
Sam : Before we hear more from Laura and Henry , I want to turn back briefly to Muzaffar Chishti at the Migration Policy Institute .
In our conversation , he brought up some important misperceptions about illegal immigration , which is often at the core of our ideas about the border and who comes through there .
Sam : According to the Migration Policy Institute , around 9 million people came to the U.S. as visitors or @ @ @ @ @ @ @ And that ’ s not including the tens of thousands of people , mostly families from Central America , who come to the U.S. legally seeking asylum .
And yet : Sam : So how does that math work ?
Who are the majority of these immigrants , and why are they coming without the right papers ?
Sam : To put this in context , data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics show that , pre-COVID-19 , openings for low-skill jobs – like health care aides , janitors , and farm workers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ But of the 1 million green cards per year that we issue to new permanent residents , only about 1 percent are available for those workers .
Other visa categories for low-wage and seasonal workers , like H-2A visas , also either fall short or are so tangled with red tape that they ’ re nearly dysfunctional .
Sam : When immigrants come to America , especially poor immigrants , refugees , and asylum seekers , they often encounter a legal system that both reflects and is deeply tied to our system of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ colleague Henry Gass again , with the lawyer Laura Peña .
Sam : On any given year , around 360,000 immigrants are locked up in American detention facilities .
Which is a big number , and numbers like that are important in these conversations .
But – and we brought this up in our previous episode – it ’ s just as important to remember that behind every statistic is a real person .
Sam : Thanks for listening , and we hope you ’ ll join us for future episodes .
Our @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ground – to Evanston , Wyoming , a town that wrestled with the decision of whether or not to build an immigration detention center .
If you ’ d like to stay in the loop , sign up for our newsletter at csmonitor.com/perceptiongaps .
We ’ ll include show notes , videos , additional articles , and behind the scenes takes from the series – such as a story about a couple who got married on a cross-border bridge , where Henry first met Laura Pena .
Again , you can sign up @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was produced and hosted by me , Samantha Laine Perfas .
It was co-reported with Henry Gass and co-produced with Jessica Mendoza , with additional edits by Clay Collins , Noelle Swan , Yvonne Zipp , Dave Scott , Em Okrepkie , Jules Struck , Lindsey McGinnis , and Kelsey Evans .
Sound design by Morgan Anderson and Noel Flatt , with additional audio elements from KCTS9 , Action News , CNN , Business Insider , and C-SPAN .
This podcast was produced by The Christian Science Monitor , copyright 2020 .

Iranian American activist Hoda Katebi speaks to another activist on Jan. 12, 2020, in her Chicago apartment, after they had received word that an Iranian student was being detained at O'Hare International Airport. She discusses her experience with anti-immigration sentiments in the U.S. in Episode 3 of "Perception Gaps: Locked Up."
Why do Americans think more immigration means more crime? (audio)
There’s a nagging myth that immigration and crime go hand in hand, despite data to the contrary. Our reporters look at why the misperception endures.
In this episode of “Perception Gaps: Locked Up,” our reporters explore the myth of “the dangerous immigrant,” the policies the stereotype has produced, and the impact our assumptions have on the institutions we build.
“It’s very frustrating, because as much data as we have, the gap between perception and reality stays pretty firmly established,” says Charis Kubrin, a professor at the University of California, Irvine.
The findings, over decades, are clear: Immigrants are less likely to commit crimes than native-born Americans. Yet 42% of Americans still say immigration is making crime worse in the United States, according to a 2019 Gallup Poll.
Episode transcript
[Music]
Charis Kubrin: So one activity I do with my students that I think illuminates this is I ask them, very first day, before they barely met me and know me – I ask them to close their eyes and think about an immigrant. You know, picture an immigrant in your mind.
Samantha Laine Perfas: This is Charis Kubrin, a professor at the University of California, Irvine. Charis studies the link between immigration and crime.
Charis: And often I'll put up a photo of my husband, who's an immigrant himself from Armenia, who's fairly light skinned. And I'll say, you know, Is this someone you had in mind? And of course, the answer always is no. Especially when we're talking about undocumented immigrants. And so what we do is we start breaking down some of the assumptions, and we start talking about how skin color, skin tone, all of these things play into stereotypes and assumptions that we have about immigration and crime in particular.
Sam: Charis’s students are not alone when it comes to these misperceptions. Many politicians still run on a “tough on crime” approach to immigration. And policies continue to be put in place to catch and deport unauthorized immigrants in the U.S. and reduce immigration into the country. The justification is often to keep Americans safe.
But the stereotype of the dangerous immigrant… that’s a perception gap.
[Theme music]
Sam: I’m Samantha Laine Perfas and this is "Perception Gaps: Locked Up," by The Christian Science Monitor.
[Theme music]
Sam: Welcome back to Season 2 of the series. In this season, we’re taking an in-depth look at mass incarceration. So if you haven’t yet, we encourage you to go back and listen to our two previous episodes – we look at the history of the U.S. prison system, and the role race plays in criminal justice. You can find all our material, including Season 1, at csmonitor.com/perceptiongaps.
In June 2019, a Gallup Poll found that 42% of Americans said immigration is making crime worse in the U.S.
SOURCE: Gallup | Jacob Turcotte/Staff
But data show that’s not true. Research consistently finds that immigrants are less likely to commit crimes than native-born Americans.
In 2019, for example, the Cato Institute reported that immigrants with and without documentation both have a much lower incarceration rate than Americans born in the U.S. A study published in 2018 in the journal Criminology found that unauthorized immigration does not increase violent crime. And yet another paper, by researchers at the University of California, Davis, showed that increasing deportations in areas with a lot of unauthorized immigrants didn’t reduce local crime rates.
It's true that many people come to the U.S. illegally. But if we're going to resolve the tough questions surrounding our immigration system, it's important that we don't equate "immigrant" – even "unauthorized immigrant" – with "criminal."
In this episode, we’ll look at why this perception matters, the policies that have resulted from it, and the impact on families, communities, and the criminal justice system.
[Music]
First, let’s go back to Charis Kubrin. She made it pretty clear to us that the research we mentioned about crime and immigration – those are just the latest findings. Criminologists have done variations of these studies for years.
Charis: You would be hard pressed to find even one criminologist in the field who would say immigration and crime go hand in hand. This is such an established finding. It's very rare that we have so much consensus around a finding. So it's very frustrating, because as much data as we have, the gap between perception and reality stays pretty – pretty firmly established. Sam: Then why does that misperception exist? Charis: I mean, I think it stems from everything from lack of understanding of what the data have to say, to racism, to bias, to misinformation, to politics.
Sam: But, according to Charis, the one factor that really stands out is fear.
Charis: It's very easy to play on people's fears by saying, “Look, we have a crime problem in the United States and it's largely due to immigrants.” Fear can be driven not so much by empirical data, but often stories that becomes kind of the rallying cry for those who believe that immigration and crime go together. So fear is central to all of this.
[Music]
Sam: When allowed to dominate rhetoric and drive policy, fear can have immediate consequences. It feels like a long time ago now, but we saw this at the beginning of 2020.
[Audio clip from ABC News: “...the top Iranian general has been killed in an airstrike..”]
[Audio clip from CBS This Morning: “...is a dramatic escalation in the confrontation between the U.S. and Iran…”]
In early January, President Donald Trump ordered the killing of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani via drone strike. It was a response, U.S. officials said, to ‘an escalating series of attacks’ by Iran. After that, political tensions between the two countries surged.
Dozens of Iranians and Iranian Americans – many coming from vacation or work trips – were stopped by the Department of Homeland Security along the border with Canada. Some Iranian students were deported even though they had valid visas.
Hoda Katebi: These are students in the middle of Ph.D.’s. These are students in the middle of master's programs. And their lives are turned completely upside down.
Sam: This is Hoda Katebi, a writer and activist who helped organize support for those students.
Hoda: Iranians already were not getting visas very easily to come here. And even after being vetted, we’ve seen dozens and dozens of Iranian students on valid F1 visas arrive in an airport and then on arrival be detained for maybe 10, 15, 20 hours, sometimes yelled at, interrogated, cursed at, intimidated, and then deported.
Sam: For Hoda, the situation felt personal. As the daughter of Iranian immigrants, she was often regarded with prejudice and fear in her hometown.
Hoda: Growing up in Oklahoma as someone who is visibly Muslim – so I wear the hijab, and I started wearing it in sixth grade – that was a way in which I had normalized such a deep level of violence for myself. Like I thought it was normal to be called a terrorist. I thought it was normal to cross the street and someone to pretend to run you over. That was just my everyday growing up. Sam: Can you talk a little bit about the concept of being “othered”? What does that mean and what does that feel like? Hoda: I don't think I've ever been asked that question. I think that it's, it’s a very difficult experience to grow up in a place where no one looked like me, and everything that you believe in or everything that you look like is always bad and different. It affects every single aspect of our sense of beauty, our sense of confidence. And I think that that's something that is – it doesn't go away easily. Sam: Why do you think that feeling of being othered is such a common experience for immigrants? Hoda: Well, I mean, I think that this country is built on othering. And I think that that's really important to contextualize, is that this country has always made it incredibly difficult for immigrants and refugees to come to this country. What we’re seeing right now is something that also isn’t new.
[Music]
Sam: The Trump administration has been aggressive on immigration enforcement, and the president’s rhetoric is prone to linking immigrants and crime. But – and this is an important ‘but’ – President Trump is far from the first politician to draw a line between who belongs here and who doesn’t.
Muzaffar Chishti: You know, people forget that for the consummate nation of immigrants that we are, America has always been ambivalent about immigration. I’m Muzaffar Chishti, I'm a senior fellow at the Migration Policy Institute.
Sam: Muzaffar has worked on immigration policy issues for decades. He says that Americans have been trying to keep certain people from coming here – basically since the country was founded.
Muzaffar: We didn’t like criminals. We didn’t like prostitutes. We didn’t like people who were going to become public charges in our country. We didn't like illiterates.
Sam: For example, in the 1800s.
Muzaffar: We had strong campaigns in the form of the creation of the Know Nothing Party, which was completely against the Irish and the Catholics in general, that these were just unsuitable members of U.S. society. And then we had, beginning in the 1880s, a campaign against Chinese. We had the Chinese Exclusion Act put in place in 1882.
Sam: Muzaffar says that no matter who the new arrivals were, the message was always some variation of: “They’re not like us. They’re tainting our values and culture. They don’t belong.”
Muzaffar: These are recurrent chapters of anti-immigrant hysteria, so that we began the 21st century essentially the same way as we began the 20th century, which is with mass migration. That level of mass migration was when Congress got extremely upset that wrong kinds of immigrants were coming – large numbers, and wrong kinds of immigrants. What they meant was Eastern and Southern Europeans – Italians, Greeks, Slavs, Russians, and Jews. Nordic supremacy was the hallmark of American immigration.
Sam: In 1965, President Lyndon Johnson signed the Immigration and Nationality Act.
[Audio clip from KCTS9, President Lyndon B. Johnson: “...that those who seek refuge here in America will find it.”]
The law was supposed to make U.S. immigration policy more racially equitable, in part by ending quotas that were biased toward immigrants from northern and western Europe. Over time, this law changed the demographic makeup of the entire country.
Muzaffar: ‘Til 1965, about 85 percent of our legal immigration was European or Canadian. Today, 85 percent of our immigration is Asian and Hispanic, fundamentally. So the frame changes, but race is always an important part of the immigration debate.
Sam: This history of racist attitudes toward people coming into the country helps explain why the stereotype of the dangerous immigrant is so persistent. But race is only part of the story.
In previous episodes, we talked about how the 1980s and ‘90s saw an unprecedented expansion of our prisons and jails as a result of “tough on crime” laws. Those ideas also seeped into the immigration debate.
The Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986, for example, increased border patrol and made it illegal to hire unauthorized immigrants. And as the Cold War raged, national security – and the security of American jobs for Americans – became the basis for calls to restrict immigration.
[Action News clip: “...Good evening. Politicians from several states tonight are sharply criticizing President Carter’s handling of the Cuban refugee problem. The governor of Texas, Bill Clemens, says the president has literally opened the floodgates…”]
The Clinton administration also cracked down on immigration in the ‘90s, as Mexico faced a recession that sent thousands of people north to find work.
[Audio clip from CNN, President Bill Clinton: “...in this country are rightly disturbed by the large numbers of illegal aliens entering our country. That’s why our administration has moved aggressively to secure our borders more. By hiring twice as many border guards. By deporting twice as many criminal aliens as ever before…”]
Then, after 9/11, the Bush administration created the Department of Homeland Security and the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, or ICE. Billions of dollars went into militarizing the border.
[Audio clip from C-SPAN, President George W. Bush speech: “We got to strengthen security along our borders to stop people from entering illegally. In other words, we got to stop people from coming here in the first place.”]
And under President Obama, the U.S. deported more people from the country than at any other time period.
[Music]
These policies went a long way toward cementing, in the minds of the public, that crime and immigration go hand in hand – even though they don’t. The 2008 recession didn’t help, as millions of suddenly unemployed Americans looked for someone to blame.
Jonathan Metzl: This idea that – that somebody else is gaming the system is a very powerful, a very powerful script. ‘It's not our fault. It's these people's fault. You know, these immigrants who are pouring over the borders and taking all of your jobs.’
Sam: This is Jonathan Metzl, a professor of sociology and psychiatry at Vanderbilt University. In 2019, he published a book called “Dying of Whiteness,” about the consequences of white racial resentment.
Metzl: The book looks at the effect of a particular kind of politics in the United States, politics that stops people from joining together and forming alliances and forming common cause, particularly because of racial anxieties linked to whiteness. These racial anxieties – this idea that basically undeserving immigrants or minorities were going to come and take away your stuff or your privilege – pushed white voters into supporting positions that definitely targeted minority populations. In social psychology, they call it a zero-sum formulation – that there are only so many resources, and these bad people are going to use them all up and there won't be enough for me.
Sam: In 2016, the political power of this idea became clear.
[Audio montage, President Donald Trump: “...they’re bringing drugs, they’re bringing crime, they’re rapists…” “...are tonight, roaming free to threaten peaceful citizens…” “...we will build a great wall along the Southern border..”]
Muzaffar: This is the first time in our history – not just in our modern history, in our history – that any person has become the president of the United States on a strong anti-immigrant narrative.
Sam: That’s Muzaffar Chishti again, from the Migration Policy Institute. He says that while we’ve seen other candidates run on that message in the past, they almost never made it beyond their primaries.
Muzaffar: Here you had a person who not only won the primary of a major party, but then became the president on that playbook.
Sam: So what does that playbook look like for those most affected by it? When the government is guided by leaders who have emphasized the idea that refugees, asylum seekers, and immigrants are dangerous, how does that affect immigrants and the communities around them?
[Music]
Laura Peña: My name is Laura Peña. I’m an immigration attorney and advocate. I serve as pro bono counsel for the American Bar Association, Commission on Immigration.
Sam: We reached out to Laura because she is living and working at the center of our immigration debate right now. She was born and raised in South Texas, along the border with Mexico. For years she was an attorney for ICE, presenting – among other things – the government’s case against immigrants seeking asylum in the U.S. Now Laura works on the other side of the courtroom, defending the migrants she used to prosecute.
My colleague Henry Gass, who covers Texas and the border for the Monitor, led the conversation with her.
Henry Gass: So I'd like to start with your experiences growing up on the border. I mean, you, you grew up in the Rio Grande Valley, I believe. Can you talk a bit about that? Tell us what that was like? Laura: So if anybody is familiar with the Rio Grande Valley, it's the southernmost tip of Texas. In terms of the border, the border really didn't exist the way it does today. There was a real back and forth flow of people, goods. We would celebrate our Christmas Eve at a well-known restaurant on top of a pharmacy in Matamoros called Garcia’s. My dentist was on the Mexican side of the border. So there was a real back and forth, ease of movement. And it just felt like one community. Henry: Earlier in your career, you worked with ICE as a prosecutor. Can you tell us sort of when that was and why you wanted to do that? Laura: I had a long love affair with law school. It took me about seven years to finish law school at night. When I finally finished, I decided that I wasn’t going to do policy work, so I moved out to California. And I realized I really do – I do love the law and I want to get any job that will immediately put me into a courtroom. And when I saw the position with ICE, I consulted with mentors of mine, you know, they advised me that I would have an extreme amount of power and authority over the cases that I would see, that I would learn immigration law from the inside very quickly, and that more people with my mindset, with my background, with my experience growing up – my sensibilities, I guess – should be on that side of the table. And so I took that advice to heart.
Sam: This was during the Obama administration. At the time, ICE was facing criticism over how it was handling a surge of unaccompanied children coming to the border from Central America.
Henry: What was that like for you, working in the system at that time? Laura: It was challenging to be inside the system, to see what the system's response to that border surge crisis was. I remember one hearing in which a six month old was called. It was a six month old baby. And the judge calls the case forward, doesn't realize that it’s a six month old that can't speak on the record. The judge was furious. How is she supposed to try a case for a six month old? And it turned out it was an administrative oversight. The six month old baby had crossed with her mother and the mother was also in proceedings. But somehow the files had been separated. And I remember the judge's fury at me saying, you know, ‘We need to make sure that these cases are together. There's no way these children can be prosecuted separately.’ And I agreed with her at the time. But in L.A. and in San Diego, I wasn't really seeing those cases on a day to day basis. I was mainly seeing the cases of the families who had been released and had moved elsewhere after being on the border. And they wanted to make sure that they followed the process.
Sam: Laura was never fully comfortable with her role at ICE. One of the last straws for her: a case that involved a woman seeking asylum from an African country where sexual violence was being used as a tool of war.
Laura: I tried that case, and I impeached her on the stand because she had a fraudulent, I think it was a voting I.D. card, something to that effect. And as the judge denied her case, she broke out into a panic attack, wailing. And the medics had to come and take her out of the courtroom. But I knew, I knew that I had a hand in sending her back to be tortured. And I will live with that for the rest of my life.
Sam: Laura left ICE just before the 2016 election. After President Trump won, he started turning his campaign promises into policy. Family separations happened more frequently under the “zero tolerance” policy announced in 2018. The Trump administration said it was necessary to check the tide of unauthorized immigrants coming to the border.
Henry: What has it been like since then, sort of working as an immigration attorney on the border during this presidency? Laura: What I see on the border is a pummeling of the rights of asylum seekers, the rights of even the border, the border residents, you know, the border wall being constructed with such intent to separate and divide what is really a binational community. So at a very personal level, it’s been extremely challenging to see the borderlands portrayed as a dangerous place where this invasion is occurring. From a legal perspective, it's been doubly as challenging. You can't keep up with the policies that this administration continues to announce, continues to implement. So it’s been – it’s been a struggle.
Sam: Before we hear more from Laura and Henry, I want to turn back briefly to Muzaffar Chishti at the Migration Policy Institute. In our conversation, he brought up some important misperceptions about illegal immigration, which is often at the core of our ideas about the border and who comes through there.
Muzaffar: One of the myths about immigration is that as if all our immigration is illegal immigration. That is just not true. For the one million people who come to the US as permanent residents every year, they all come through sponsorships either by a U.S. family member or by a U.S. employer.
SOURCE: Gallup | Jacob Turcotte/Staff
Sam: According to the Migration Policy Institute, around 9 million people came to the U.S. as visitors or temporary residents in 2018.
Muzaffar: They're coming as students, they're coming as temporary workers to work for employers. They're coming as exchange scholars. They're coming as seasonal workers. Or they’re just coming for, you know, for a visit, for pleasure.
Sam: And that’s not including the tens of thousands of people, mostly families from Central America, who come to the U.S. legally seeking asylum. And yet:
Muzaffar: One-fourth of our foreign-born population today is unauthorized. That has never been true in our history. And that creates its own feeling of disquiet.
Sam: So how does that math work? Who are the majority of these immigrants, and why are they coming without the right papers?
Muzaffar: The fact is that while we have become reliant on immigrant workers – and this is true much more in the low-wage sector – our legal channels for low-skilled workers and low-wage workers have almost disappeared. This is sort of one of the biggest misconceptions about immigration, as though people choose to come illegally.
Sam: To put this in context, data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics show that , pre-COVID-19, openings for low-skill jobs – like health care aides, janitors, and farm workers – soared over the past decade. But of the 1 million green cards per year that we issue to new permanent residents, only about 1 percent are available for those workers. Other visa categories for low-wage and seasonal workers, like H-2A visas, also either fall short or are so tangled with red tape that they’re nearly dysfunctional.
Muzaffar: So the workers are filling the jobs using illegal channels because legal channels just don't exist for them. Which is what has then created the pool of unauthorized workers up to one-fourth of our foreign-born population. And that is the core of our illegal immigration problem. And when people talk about comprehensive immigration reform, that's what they're talking about, is that we need to redesign our immigration selection system to accommodate for the realities of our labor market needs.
[Music]
Sam: When immigrants come to America, especially poor immigrants, refugees, and asylum seekers, they often encounter a legal system that both reflects and is deeply tied to our system of criminal justice. Here’s my colleague Henry Gass again, with the lawyer Laura Peña.
Henry: Is the immigration system different from just the, the justice system that U.S. citizens interact with around the country? Laura: In many ways, the immigration system is a lot worse than the criminal justice system, because the constitutional protections that are afforded to defendants are not available for immigrants. So there is no right to an attorney in the immigration system, and that results in a very, very low percentage of individuals who have access to attorneys. There are similarities, though. You have mass incarceration of Black and brown men at alarming levels.
Sam: On any given year, around 360,000 immigrants are locked up in American detention facilities. Which is a big number, and numbers like that are important in these conversations. But – and we brought this up in our previous episode – it’s just as important to remember that behind every statistic is a real person.
Henry: You know, I think there's a question of humanity here. How do you think we keep humanity sort of at the center of immigration enforcement? Laura: You know, you have to start with unwinding or unraveling some of the perceptions that Americans have of immigrants. Bringing humanity back into the system requires Americans to relearn what it means to be an immigrant in American society, and to not equate that with being a criminal. And as soon as we recognize asylum seekers, refugees, migrants, undocumented immigrants, whether they be coming to our borders now, whether they've been living in the shadows for the past, you know, decades – they are just like us. And for the most part, they also believe in the fundamental values that we do as Americans. And only then I think, can you start bringing humanity as a center of immigration law and policy.
Sam: Thanks for listening, and we hope you’ll join us for future episodes. Our next episode will take you on the ground – to Evanston, Wyoming, a town that wrestled with the decision of whether or not to build an immigration detention center. If you’d like to stay in the loop, sign up for our newsletter at csmonitor.com/perceptiongaps. We’ll include show notes, videos, additional articles, and behind the scenes takes from the series – such as a story about a couple who got married on a cross-border bridge, where Henry first met Laura Pena. Again, you can sign up for it at csmonitor.com/perceptiongaps.
This episode was produced and hosted by me, Samantha Laine Perfas. It was co-reported with Henry Gass and co-produced with Jessica Mendoza, with additional edits by Clay Collins, Noelle Swan, Yvonne Zipp, Dave Scott, Em Okrepkie, Jules Struck, Lindsey McGinnis, and Kelsey Evans. Sound design by Morgan Anderson and Noel Flatt, with additional audio elements from KCTS9, Action News, CNN, Business Insider, and C-SPAN.
This podcast was produced by The Christian Science Monitor, copyright 2020.
[End]


csmonitor--2020-08-17--UAE deal shakes up Israeli views – of Netanyahu and the region

“ You can ’ t avoid that we haven ’ t solved the Palestinian situation .
We may dream of one thousand days and nights in Dubai , but we live more with Gaza , ” says Tom Misgav , a Tel Aviv lawyer who wondered whether the deal will whet Mr. Netanyahu ’ s appetite for more diplomacy .
“ Maybe it will change his perception .
Does he want to go down in history as a prime minister who went to jail on three corruption indictments , or as a peacemaker ?
” The deal follows Mr. Netanyahu @ @ @ @ @ @ @ countries in the region first and then turning to the Palestinians , though the path forward is unclear .
The deal taps Israelis ’ longings for acceptance in the Middle East .
“ Israel is part of this region , and the fact that we have been isolated from them for 72 years on a formal basis is coming to an end .
I think that we haven ’ t really begun to understand the huge impact , ” says Jonathan Medved , founder of a venture capital company .
The Israel-UAE agreement @ @ @ @ @ @ @ chorus of detractors and advocates for Israel ’ s prime minister , Benjamin Netanyahu .
Suddenly , Israel ’ s news media is flush with images of Dubai skyscrapers and breathless speculation about the Arab countries that might be next .
When Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu set July 1 as a target to begin moves to annex portions of the occupied West Bank , securing a place in history was also in his sights .
Now , just weeks later , Mr. Netanyahu has traded one date with history for an entirely @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ties with the United Arab Emirates in return for putting annexation on ice for the near future .
The move , announced last week with President Donald Trump , would make the UAE only the third Arab country to agree to full relations with Israel in its 72-year history .
And it has won Mr. Netanyahu comparisons to iconic Israeli leaders who cut peace deals with Egypt and Jordan – Menachem Begin and Yitzhak Rabin , respectively .
It also showed signs of shifting how Israelis view themselves in the region .
Suddenly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ flush with images of Dubai skyscrapers and breathless speculation about the Arab countries that might be next in line – Bahrain , Morocco , Oman , even Sudan .
After years of talk about the quiet alliance with Gulf Arab nations , the deal taps Israelis ’ longings for normalcy and acceptance in the Middle East , a thirst that cuts across the lines of Israel ’ s fractured politics .
“ Israel is part of this region , and the fact that we have been isolated from them for 72 years on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ end .
I think that we haven ’ t really begun to understand the huge impact .
If this thing does what it ’ s supposed to do , the entire region can benefit , ” says Jonathan Medved , the founder of OurCrowd , a Jerusalem-based venture capital investment company .
Yet other Israelis put the diplomatic accomplishment in the context of other immediate and longer-term national priorities , including battling the coronavirus and securing peace with the Palestinians .
Tamar Sidi , a psychologist in Herzliya , says while normalized ties @ @ @ @ @ @ @ she thinks that Mr. Netanyahu is overblowing the dimensions of his achievement .
Israel has had informal ties with the UAE that go back more than a decade , and Mr. Netanyahu ’ s annexation move was blocked , politically and diplomatically .
She says she ’ s concerned that the Palestinians are being left out of the equation .
“ That ’ s the main problem we have , so I wonder where that is in the grand scheme , ” she says .
Though the deal doesn ’ t include direct @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Palestinians , Israeli peace advocates believe the mothballing of Mr. Netanyahu ’ s annexation push ( the prime minister insisted he hasn ’ t given up on it yet ) is nevertheless a historic blow to the Israeli right .
“ This was the Netanyahu dream to make history : bring back the biblical land to the people of Israel .
This was the dream of the settlers , ” says Alon Liel , a peace activist and a former Israeli ambassador .
“ He worked hard to accumulate political support in Israel @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Knesset .
And , boom , suddenly the world is stopping it .
This is a knockout for the imperialist visions of Israel.
” Mr. Liel also sees a shift in Israelis ’ thinking about their place in the region .
“ In the last 15 years , Israel ran away from the Middle East into the arms of the East European countries like Greece , Romania , Poland , Hungary , ” he says .
“ The Middle East might be our physical neighborhood , but not our cultural and commercial neighborhood @ @ @ @ @ @ @ discovered that there are Arabs that are worth being friendly with and associating with , ” he adds , tongue-in-cheek .
“ Not only selling arms , but tourism and commerce.
” Until now , Israelis traveling to the UAE have been required to enter with passports of a third-party country .
Religiously observant Israelis like Mr. Medved would replace their skullcaps with baseball caps to lower their profile – even if their Emirati counterparts knew exactly where they came from .
Conversations between the two countries needed to be held over the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ opened on Sunday .
“ This is one of the things that ’ s not right or left , Trump or Biden , Bibi or Gantz , ” Mr. Medved says , referring to the prime minister by his nickname and his recent election rival , Benny Gantz .
“ Everyone should say , hooray .
This is really good news .
What ’ s the downside ?
” Indeed , a poll by Israel ’ s Channel 12 television news found that 76.7 % of Israelis prefer normalization with the UAE to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
In a June poll , Mr. Netanyahu ’ s annexation push had garnered tepid support – 4 % – as a government priority .
The surprise deal with the UAE , on the other hand , spoke much more to the Israel consensus .
That gives the prime minister a chance to change the subject at a time when he faces regular demonstrations outside his residence over the pandemic-induced economic crisis and his corruption trials .
The deal also comes at a time when coalition bickering is driving speculation that Israel is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ This is Netanyahu pulling a diplomatic rabbit out of the hat that says ‘ only Bibi ’ can lead , ” says Jason Pearlman , a communications consultant who recently advised a rival to Mr. Netanyahu in his Likud party .
“ This is something that ’ s mainstream .
There are even a bunch of left-wingers that will appreciate this .
He ’ s desperately trying to retain his political qualitative edge : He ’ s lost on corona , he lost on annexation , he can ’ t claim he ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ can he claim ?
He ’ s bringing regional peace.
” The deal with the UAE would strengthen the geopolitical alliance between Israel and Sunni Arab countries in the Middle East against Iran , Syria , and its Lebanese Shiite ally Hezbollah .
It could open the way for a blossoming of bilateral trade – something that never materialized in Israel ’ s peace with Jordan or Egypt .
Business analysts note the UAE has built a diversified economy that is likely to embrace Israel ’ s innovative technology startups in sectors from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Israeli tourists are likely to be attracted to Dubai ’ s hotels and shopping .
“ Everybody ’ s talking about it .
Apparently the prices are not expensive .
It ’ s less than a three-hour flight and luxurious , ” says Tom Misgav , a Tel Aviv lawyer who has already perused a travel website for Dubai resorts .
“ From what I ’ m hearing , they ’ re just waiting for the Israelis to come.
” The UAE agreement scrambled the usual chorus of detractors and advocates of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ left-leaning political columnist for the Yediot Ahronot newspaper , wrote that the deal is “ historically significant in regional and domestic Israeli terms .
... Netanyahu deserves high regard.
” Yet leaders of Jewish settlers in the West Bank – some of Mr. Netanyahu ’ s most loyal backers – alleged betrayal and warned the prime minister was headed toward a break with his ideological base .
In three consecutive election campaigns since 2019 , Mr. Netanyahu made annexation a central promise .
“ If the state of Israel sells sovereignty [ in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of paper from a country that has never threatened Israel and is far away from Israel , that ’ s a scam , ” shouted Yossi Dagan , the head of the Shomron regional council of settlements .
For now , the deal plays to the prime minister ’ s strategy of normalizing ties with countries in the region first and then turning to the Palestinians – known as the “ outside-in ” approach .
But it ’ s unclear whether it will all add up to a boost in Mr. Netanyahu ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that the move will attract Israelis in the political center , he has alienated many through years of divisive rule .
“ You can ’ t avoid that we haven ’ t solved the Palestinian situation .
We may dream of one thousand days and nights in Dubai , but we live more with Gaza , ” says Mr. Misgav , who wondered aloud whether the history-making move will whet Mr. Netanyahu ’ s appetite for new diplomatic moves .
“ Maybe it will change his perception .
Does he want to go @ @ @ @ @ @ @ who went to jail on three corruption indictments , or as a peacemaker ?
”

“You can’t avoid that we haven’t solved the Palestinian situation. We may dream of one thousand days and nights in Dubai, but we live more with Gaza,” says Tom Misgav, a Tel Aviv lawyer who wondered whether the deal will whet Mr. Netanyahu’s appetite for more diplomacy. “Maybe it will change his perception. Does he want to go down in history as a prime minister who went to jail on three corruption indictments, or as a peacemaker?”
The deal follows Mr. Netanyahu’s strategy of normalizing ties with countries in the region first and then turning to the Palestinians, though the path forward is unclear.
Much of the time, attitudes in the Middle East seem calcified. But the announcement of a path to normalized ties with the UAE has Israelis reassessing their politics and their place in the region.
The deal taps Israelis’ longings for acceptance in the Middle East. “Israel is part of this region, and the fact that we have been isolated from them for 72 years on a formal basis is coming to an end. I think that we haven’t really begun to understand the huge impact,” says Jonathan Medved, founder of a venture capital company.
The Israel-UAE agreement to normalize ties has scrambled the usual chorus of detractors and advocates for Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu. Suddenly, Israel’s news media is flush with images of Dubai skyscrapers and breathless speculation about the Arab countries that might be next.
When Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu set July 1 as a target to begin moves to annex portions of the occupied West Bank, securing a place in history was also in his sights.
Now, just weeks later, Mr. Netanyahu has traded one date with history for an entirely different one: an agreement to normalize ties with the United Arab Emirates in return for putting annexation on ice for the near future.
The move, announced last week with President Donald Trump, would make the UAE only the third Arab country to agree to full relations with Israel in its 72-year history. And it has won Mr. Netanyahu comparisons to iconic Israeli leaders who cut peace deals with Egypt and Jordan – Menachem Begin and Yitzhak Rabin, respectively.
Why We Wrote This Much of the time, attitudes in the Middle East seem calcified. But the announcement of a path to normalized ties with the UAE has Israelis reassessing their politics and their place in the region.
It also showed signs of shifting how Israelis view themselves in the region.
Suddenly, Israel’s news media is flush with images of Dubai skyscrapers and breathless speculation about the Arab countries that might be next in line – Bahrain, Morocco, Oman, even Sudan. After years of talk about the quiet alliance with Gulf Arab nations, the deal taps Israelis’ longings for normalcy and acceptance in the Middle East, a thirst that cuts across the lines of Israel’s fractured politics.
“Israel is part of this region, and the fact that we have been isolated from them for 72 years on a formal basis is coming to an end. I think that we haven’t really begun to understand the huge impact. If this thing does what it’s supposed to do, the entire region can benefit,” says Jonathan Medved, the founder of OurCrowd, a Jerusalem-based venture capital investment company.
Palestinians left out
Yet other Israelis put the diplomatic accomplishment in the context of other immediate and longer-term national priorities, including battling the coronavirus and securing peace with the Palestinians.
Tamar Sidi, a psychologist in Herzliya, says while normalized ties with the UAE would be wonderful, she thinks that Mr. Netanyahu is overblowing the dimensions of his achievement. Israel has had informal ties with the UAE that go back more than a decade, and Mr. Netanyahu’s annexation move was blocked, politically and diplomatically. She says she’s concerned that the Palestinians are being left out of the equation.
“That’s the main problem we have, so I wonder where that is in the grand scheme,” she says.
Though the deal doesn’t include direct progress on a two-state solution with the Palestinians, Israeli peace advocates believe the mothballing of Mr. Netanyahu’s annexation push (the prime minister insisted he hasn’t given up on it yet) is nevertheless a historic blow to the Israeli right.
“This was the Netanyahu dream to make history: bring back the biblical land to the people of Israel. This was the dream of the settlers,” says Alon Liel, a peace activist and a former Israeli ambassador. “He worked hard to accumulate political support in Israel. He had a majority in the Knesset. And, boom, suddenly the world is stopping it. This is a knockout for the imperialist visions of Israel.”
Mr. Liel also sees a shift in Israelis’ thinking about their place in the region. “In the last 15 years, Israel ran away from the Middle East into the arms of the East European countries like Greece, Romania, Poland, Hungary,” he says. “The Middle East might be our physical neighborhood, but not our cultural and commercial neighborhood.
“Here, suddenly, Israel discovered that there are Arabs that are worth being friendly with and associating with,” he adds, tongue-in-cheek. “Not only selling arms, but tourism and commerce.”
Emil Salman/Reuters View caption Hide caption Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, standing next to Transportation Minister Miri Regev, addresses the media at Israel's Ben Gurion International Airport, in Lod near Tel Aviv, on Aug. 17, 2020.
Until now, Israelis traveling to the UAE have been required to enter with passports of a third-party country. Religiously observant Israelis like Mr. Medved would replace their skullcaps with baseball caps to lower their profile – even if their Emirati counterparts knew exactly where they came from. Conversations between the two countries needed to be held over the internet – though the phone links were opened on Sunday.
“This is one of the things that’s not right or left, Trump or Biden, Bibi or Gantz,” Mr. Medved says, referring to the prime minister by his nickname and his recent election rival, Benny Gantz. “Everyone should say, hooray. This is really good news. What’s the downside?”
A consensus play
Indeed, a poll by Israel’s Channel 12 television news found that 76.7% of Israelis prefer normalization with the UAE to annexation; 16.5% preferred the opposite. In a June poll, Mr. Netanyahu’s annexation push had garnered tepid support – 4% – as a government priority.
The surprise deal with the UAE, on the other hand, spoke much more to the Israel consensus. That gives the prime minister a chance to change the subject at a time when he faces regular demonstrations outside his residence over the pandemic-induced economic crisis and his corruption trials. The deal also comes at a time when coalition bickering is driving speculation that Israel is headed toward elections yet again.
“This is Netanyahu pulling a diplomatic rabbit out of the hat that says ‘only Bibi’ can lead,” says Jason Pearlman, a communications consultant who recently advised a rival to Mr. Netanyahu in his Likud party.
“This is something that’s mainstream. There are even a bunch of left-wingers that will appreciate this. He’s desperately trying to retain his political qualitative edge: He’s lost on corona, he lost on annexation, he can’t claim he’s strong against Hamas; what else can he claim? He’s bringing regional peace.”
The deal with the UAE would strengthen the geopolitical alliance between Israel and Sunni Arab countries in the Middle East against Iran, Syria, and its Lebanese Shiite ally Hezbollah.
It could open the way for a blossoming of bilateral trade – something that never materialized in Israel’s peace with Jordan or Egypt. Business analysts note the UAE has built a diversified economy that is likely to embrace Israel’s innovative technology startups in sectors from finance to green energy to water. Israeli tourists are likely to be attracted to Dubai’s hotels and shopping.
“Everybody’s talking about it. Apparently the prices are not expensive. It’s less than a three-hour flight and luxurious,” says Tom Misgav, a Tel Aviv lawyer who has already perused a travel website for Dubai resorts. “From what I’m hearing, they’re just waiting for the Israelis to come.”
New thinking about Netanyahu
The UAE agreement scrambled the usual chorus of detractors and advocates of the prime minister.
Nahum Barnea, a left-leaning political columnist for the Yediot Ahronot newspaper, wrote that the deal is “historically significant in regional and domestic Israeli terms. ... Netanyahu deserves high regard.”
Yet leaders of Jewish settlers in the West Bank – some of Mr. Netanyahu’s most loyal backers – alleged betrayal and warned the prime minister was headed toward a break with his ideological base. In three consecutive election campaigns since 2019, Mr. Netanyahu made annexation a central promise.
“If the state of Israel sells sovereignty [in the West Bank] for a piece of paper from a country that has never threatened Israel and is far away from Israel, that’s a scam,” shouted Yossi Dagan, the head of the Shomron regional council of settlements.
For now, the deal plays to the prime minister’s strategy of normalizing ties with countries in the region first and then turning to the Palestinians – known as the “outside-in” approach. But it’s unclear whether it will all add up to a boost in Mr. Netanyahu’s political standing. Though some believe that the move will attract Israelis in the political center, he has alienated many through years of divisive rule.
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“You can’t avoid that we haven’t solved the Palestinian situation. We may dream of one thousand days and nights in Dubai, but we live more with Gaza,” says Mr. Misgav, who wondered aloud whether the history-making move will whet Mr. Netanyahu’s appetite for new diplomatic moves.
“Maybe it will change his perception. Does he want to go down in history as a prime minister who went to jail on three corruption indictments, or as a peacemaker?”


csmonitor--2020-08-17--Conventions raise curtain on a campaign like no other

“ This is a referendum on Donald Trump , as he kind of willed it to be , ” says Joel Payne , a Democratic strategist and communications specialist .
But it seems likely that Election 2020 will end up centering on President Trump – not just his disruptions , but the way he has responded to the coronavirus and related crises , and how those events may have changed what voters want from their government .
Democratic challenger Joe Biden has run a low-key campaign , portraying himself as a traditional presidential figure who won ’ t fire off @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
On the ballot will be an incumbent who was already perhaps the most disruptive U.S. president of modern times – and proudly so .
President Donald Trump has broken so many political norms over four years it ’ s hard to keep track .
As political convention season opens this week – with cheering crowds weirdly absent and most events virtual – America is hurtling toward a presidential vote like no other .
It comes amid a historically tumultuous year in which a pandemic has upended much of normal life , a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ economy , and protests have changed the way many citizens view racial relations and the police .
As political convention season opens this week – with cheering crowds weirdly absent and most events virtual – America is hurtling toward a presidential vote like no other .
It comes amid a historically tumultuous year in which a pandemic has upended much of normal life , a recession has shuttered large parts of the economy , and protests have changed the way many citizens view racial relations and the police .
On the ballot will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the most disruptive U.S. president of modern times – and proudly so .
President Donald Trump has broken so many political norms over four years it ’ s hard to keep track .
Democratic challenger Joe Biden will figure in the outcome , of course .
He has so far run a low-key campaign , portraying himself as a traditional presidential figure who won ’ t fire off controversial tweets or try to divide Americans .
But it seems likely that Election 2020 will end up centering on President Trump – not just @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has responded to the pandemic and related crises that have washed over the country , and how those events have , or have not , changed what voters want from their elected leader and their government .
“ This is a referendum on Donald Trump , as he kind of willed it to be , ” says Joel Payne , a Democratic strategist and communications specialist .
By definition , the presidential race is now entering a new phase , with the conventions making the tickets official .
This week , the Democrats @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the American people and try to frame the election to their advantage .
Next week , President Trump and the Republicans will have their turn to do the same thing .
Conventions often give candidates a bounce in the polls , at least in the short term .
But the size of bounces has declined in this highly partisan era , and it ’ s not clear whether conventions-as-Zoom-meetings will have the same effect .
There ’ s also no time between the conventions this year , as there often is , since @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the pandemic .
That might work to the benefit of the GOP .
Conventions may be set up as giant pep rallies , but they can still have memorable or surprising moments , says Barbara Perry , director of presidential studies at the University of Virginia ’ s Miller Center .
Al Gore gave his then-wife Tipper a strange kiss at the 2000 Democratic National Convention .
The then-little-known Barack Obama turned heads with a compelling speech at the 2004 DNC .
Clint Eastwood debated an empty chair at the 2012 Republican National @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the circus – someone may fall off the trapeze , or someone may accomplish an amazing feat , ” says Dr. Perry .
This year , the medium may be the message for both parties , whether they wish it or not .
The difference in the spectacle , with speakers dialing in remotely and no events or activists crowding on the convention floor , may highlight the changes wrought in larger society by the coronavirus .
“ We know the number one issue on everyone ’ s mind will be the pandemic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ So substantively , how will the parties and the leaders present their plans [ to deal with it ] ?
” November still a good way off If the election were this week , former Vice President Biden and Sen. Kamala Harris would be heavy favorites over President Trump and Vice President Mike Pence .
Given Mr. Biden ’ s continued , steady poll lead of between 7 and 10 points over the president , he would win 72 out of every 100 simulated votes run with current numbers , according to the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is still a good way off , politically-speaking .
As FiveThirtyEight ’ s Nate Silver wrote last week , it ’ s not uncommon for polls to make big swings between mid-August and Election Day .
Since 1976 , three of the presidential candidates leading at this point in the race ended up losing the popular vote : Michael Dukakis in 1988 , George W. Bush in 2000 , and John Kerry in 2004 .
( Mr. Bush blew a 10-point lead , but still ended up narrowly winning the Electoral College and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ debates are still to come .
The pandemic might abate somewhat between now and November .
The economy could show signs of life .
“ I have a hard time believing that Trump will lose by eight points nationally , ” says Alex Conant , a Republican political consultant who served as a spokesman for Sen. Marco Rubio ’ s 2016 presidential campaign .
“ I think the race is really going to tighten.
” The reaction to this probable tightening – from Democrats , Republicans , the media – could also be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it cause a round of negative coverage for the Democratic ticket that feeds on itself and tightens the race further , dampening enthusiasm for Mr. Biden and exciting Trump supporters ?
Could we end up with 2016 all over again , with Mr. Trump losing the popular vote but eking out a win in the Electoral College ?
So far , Mr. Biden has been perfectly happy to keep his head down and not mix it up with the incumbent , as challengers typically do , Mr. Conant says .
A change in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that strategy .
“ Part of this is that Biden is not a candidate who has ever generated a lot of enthusiasm and media coverage , ” he says .
To many Americans , the coronavirus remains the most important issue facing the nation , by far .
The virus has crushed livelihoods , taken away freedom of movement , spread fear , and stolen lives .
For many parents of school-age children , the question of whether or not it is safe to open schools – and what to do about child @ @ @ @ @ @ @ t – overwhelms almost everything else .
For them and the nation as a whole , this promises to be a politically difficult fall .
That holds for President Trump as well .
The chief executive who initially dismissed the virus as something that would fade away , and who has since pushed governors to reopen their states and localities to reopen their schools , does not fare well in polls on the issue .
58 % of Americans disapprove of the president ’ s handling of the pandemic , according to a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ while only 39.8 % approve .
Voters appear unimpressed by Mr. Trump ’ s attempts to shift blame for the virus to China , or to present his administration ’ s role in the U.S. response as a success .
The U.S. has 5.4 million cases and has lost about 170,000 lives – far more than any other country .
“ In most presidential elections involving the incumbent , the race is most likely to be a referendum on the incumbent ’ s performance in office , ” says William Galston , a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Brookings Institution .
Mr. Trump has made some efforts to change that dynamic and make the race about Mr. Biden , but so far to little effect , says Dr. Galston .
The former vice president has instead proved difficult to define .
Unlike , say , Sen. Bernie Sanders , Mr. Biden can ’ t be credibly painted as a leftist .
In fact , several former Republican leaders , including former Ohio Gov .
John Kasich , are speaking tonight at the DNC in support of Mr. Biden .
He ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hasn ’ t injected himself into the political conversation at times when Mr. Trump is saying or doing controversial things .
Mr. Biden has worked steadily to try to unify the Democratic Party around him and his agenda , to the extent that ’ s possible .
During convention season , Mr. Trump ’ s goal should be to broaden his support , not intensify it , says the Brookings scholar .
His base is already strong .
“ Biden ’ s goal is the exact opposite .
Biden ’ s support now @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it , ” says Dr. Galston .
The context for such efforts , of course , is a polarized nation in which most people have already made up their minds about politics and take their cues from their ideological “ team.
” “ We remain a highly divided country , and it ’ s getting harder and harder to find persuadable voters , ” says Spencer Critchley , a Democratic communications consultant and author of the book , “ Patriots of Two Nations : Why Trump Was Inevitable and What Happens Next.
” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ which focus attention on the nation ’ s political conversation remain key components of the election cycle , says Mr. Critchley .
As the number of persuadable voters shrinks , every fraction of a percent that a campaign can move becomes a larger share of the small slice of swing voters that may decide who sits in the Oval Office for the next four years .
“ Every opportunity to communicate is important , ” Mr. Critchley says .

“This is a referendum on Donald Trump, as he kind of willed it to be,” says Joel Payne, a Democratic strategist and communications specialist.
But it seems likely that Election 2020 will end up centering on President Trump – not just his disruptions, but the way he has responded to the coronavirus and related crises, and how those events may have changed what voters want from their government.
Democratic challenger Joe Biden has run a low-key campaign, portraying himself as a traditional presidential figure who won’t fire off controversial tweets or try to divide Americans.
With back-to-back, mostly virtual political conventions, the presidential contest is entering a new phase. Heavily shaped by the pandemic and other crises, the race still has plenty of time to tighten before November.
On the ballot will be an incumbent who was already perhaps the most disruptive U.S. president of modern times – and proudly so. President Donald Trump has broken so many political norms over four years it’s hard to keep track.
As political convention season opens this week – with cheering crowds weirdly absent and most events virtual – America is hurtling toward a presidential vote like no other. It comes amid a historically tumultuous year in which a pandemic has upended much of normal life, a recession has shuttered large parts of the economy, and protests have changed the way many citizens view racial relations and the police.
Call it the Disruption Election.
As political convention season opens this week – with cheering crowds weirdly absent and most events virtual – America is hurtling toward a presidential vote like no other. It comes amid a historically tumultuous year in which a pandemic has upended much of normal life, a recession has shuttered large parts of the economy, and protests have changed the way many citizens view racial relations and the police.
On the ballot will be an incumbent who was already perhaps the most disruptive U.S. president of modern times – and proudly so. President Donald Trump has broken so many political norms over four years it’s hard to keep track.
Why We Wrote This With back-to-back, mostly virtual political conventions, the presidential contest is entering a new phase. Heavily shaped by the pandemic and other crises, the race still has plenty of time to tighten before November.
Democratic challenger Joe Biden will figure in the outcome, of course. He has so far run a low-key campaign, portraying himself as a traditional presidential figure who won’t fire off controversial tweets or try to divide Americans.
But it seems likely that Election 2020 will end up centering on President Trump – not just his disruptions, but the way he has responded to the pandemic and related crises that have washed over the country, and how those events have, or have not, changed what voters want from their elected leader and their government.
“This is a referendum on Donald Trump, as he kind of willed it to be,” says Joel Payne, a Democratic strategist and communications specialist.
By definition, the presidential race is now entering a new phase, with the conventions making the tickets official. This week, the Democrats get four days to speak directly to the American people and try to frame the election to their advantage. Next week, President Trump and the Republicans will have their turn to do the same thing.
Conventions often give candidates a bounce in the polls, at least in the short term. But the size of bounces has declined in this highly partisan era, and it’s not clear whether conventions-as-Zoom-meetings will have the same effect. There’s also no time between the conventions this year, as there often is, since the Democrats postponed their event due to the pandemic. That might work to the benefit of the GOP.
Conventions may be set up as giant pep rallies, but they can still have memorable or surprising moments, says Barbara Perry, director of presidential studies at the University of Virginia’s Miller Center.
Carolyn Kaster/AP View caption Hide caption Democratic presidential candidate former Vice President Joe Biden and his running mate Sen. Kamala Harris pass each other on the way to the podium during a campaign event at Alexis Dupont High School in Wilmington, Delaware, Aug. 12, 2020.
Al Gore gave his then-wife Tipper a strange kiss at the 2000 Democratic National Convention. The then-little-known Barack Obama turned heads with a compelling speech at the 2004 DNC. Clint Eastwood debated an empty chair at the 2012 Republican National Convention.
“It’s like the circus – someone may fall off the trapeze, or someone may accomplish an amazing feat,” says Dr. Perry.
This year, the medium may be the message for both parties, whether they wish it or not. The difference in the spectacle, with speakers dialing in remotely and no events or activists crowding on the convention floor, may highlight the changes wrought in larger society by the coronavirus.
“We know the number one issue on everyone’s mind will be the pandemic,” says Dr. Perry. “So substantively, how will the parties and the leaders present their plans [to deal with it]?”
November still a good way off
If the election were this week, former Vice President Biden and Sen. Kamala Harris would be heavy favorites over President Trump and Vice President Mike Pence. Given Mr. Biden’s continued, steady poll lead of between 7 and 10 points over the president, he would win 72 out of every 100 simulated votes run with current numbers, according to the FiveThirtyEight election forecast.
But the election is still a good way off, politically-speaking. As FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver wrote last week, it’s not uncommon for polls to make big swings between mid-August and Election Day. Since 1976, three of the presidential candidates leading at this point in the race ended up losing the popular vote: Michael Dukakis in 1988, George W. Bush in 2000, and John Kerry in 2004. (Mr. Bush blew a 10-point lead, but still ended up narrowly winning the Electoral College and the Oval Office.)
The presidential debates are still to come. The pandemic might abate somewhat between now and November. The economy could show signs of life.
“I have a hard time believing that Trump will lose by eight points nationally,” says Alex Conant, a Republican political consultant who served as a spokesman for Sen. Marco Rubio’s 2016 presidential campaign. “I think the race is really going to tighten.”
The reaction to this probable tightening – from Democrats, Republicans, the media – could also be crucial, Mr. Conant says. Will it cause a round of negative coverage for the Democratic ticket that feeds on itself and tightens the race further, dampening enthusiasm for Mr. Biden and exciting Trump supporters? Could we end up with 2016 all over again, with Mr. Trump losing the popular vote but eking out a win in the Electoral College?
So far, Mr. Biden has been perfectly happy to keep his head down and not mix it up with the incumbent, as challengers typically do, Mr. Conant says. A change in the direction of the race could upend that strategy.
“Part of this is that Biden is not a candidate who has ever generated a lot of enthusiasm and media coverage,” he says.
A politically difficult fall
To many Americans, the coronavirus remains the most important issue facing the nation, by far. The virus has crushed livelihoods, taken away freedom of movement, spread fear, and stolen lives.
For many parents of school-age children, the question of whether or not it is safe to open schools – and what to do about child care and education if it isn’t – overwhelms almost everything else. For them and the nation as a whole, this promises to be a politically difficult fall.
That holds for President Trump as well. The chief executive who initially dismissed the virus as something that would fade away, and who has since pushed governors to reopen their states and localities to reopen their schools, does not fare well in polls on the issue. 58% of Americans disapprove of the president’s handling of the pandemic, according to a RealClearPolitics rolling average of major surveys, while only 39.8% approve.
Voters appear unimpressed by Mr. Trump’s attempts to shift blame for the virus to China, or to present his administration’s role in the U.S. response as a success. The U.S. has 5.4 million cases and has lost about 170,000 lives – far more than any other country.
“In most presidential elections involving the incumbent, the race is most likely to be a referendum on the incumbent’s performance in office,” says William Galston, a senior fellow in governance studies at the Brookings Institution.
Mr. Trump has made some efforts to change that dynamic and make the race about Mr. Biden, but so far to little effect, says Dr. Galston. The former vice president has instead proved difficult to define.
Unlike, say, Sen. Bernie Sanders, Mr. Biden can’t be credibly painted as a leftist. In fact, several former Republican leaders, including former Ohio Gov. John Kasich, are speaking tonight at the DNC in support of Mr. Biden. He’s stayed out of the spotlight and hasn’t injected himself into the political conversation at times when Mr. Trump is saying or doing controversial things. Mr. Biden has worked steadily to try to unify the Democratic Party around him and his agenda, to the extent that’s possible.
During convention season, Mr. Trump’s goal should be to broaden his support, not intensify it, says the Brookings scholar. His base is already strong.
“Biden’s goal is the exact opposite. Biden’s support now is broad. He needs to intensify it,” says Dr. Galston.
The context for such efforts, of course, is a polarized nation in which most people have already made up their minds about politics and take their cues from their ideological “team.”
“We remain a highly divided country, and it’s getting harder and harder to find persuadable voters,” says Spencer Critchley, a Democratic communications consultant and author of the book, “Patriots of Two Nations: Why Trump Was Inevitable and What Happens Next.”
That said, conventions and other events which focus attention on the nation’s political conversation remain key components of the election cycle, says Mr. Critchley.
Get stories that
empower and uplift daily. By signing up, you agree to our Privacy Policy Already a subscriber? Log in to hide ads.
As the number of persuadable voters shrinks, every fraction of a percent that a campaign can move becomes a larger share of the small slice of swing voters that may decide who sits in the Oval Office for the next four years.
“Every opportunity to communicate is important,” Mr. Critchley says.