thebulwark--2020-10-22--Kristen Welker’s Debate Dilemma

Kristen Welker’s Debate Dilemma

Donald Trump didn ’ t do very well at the first debate .
He was irascible and boorish and , well , pretty much just a dick .
Dan Bongino liked it .
Voters didn ’ t .
The ensuing days didn ’ t go much better .
The president contracted the novel coronavirus from a superspreader event at his own White House , was hospitalized , dramatically returned from to the White House with some freak-show Mark-Burnett-meets-Mussolini vibes , held a petulant town hall with Savannah Guthrie where he defended QAnon , and then went back on the campaign @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
.
Not Another 20 years of Donald Trump ” contagion tour .
In between all that , Mike Pence and Kamala Harris held a debate that was only really notable thanks to the appearance of a fly .
This is all just in the last three weeks .
It is impossible to keep up .
And therein lies the real problem that the debate moderator , NBC ’ s Kristen Welker , faces tonight : No mortal can cover all of this president ’ s grotesqueries and atrocities in just 90 minutes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ President Trump and Vice President Pence were largely on the defensive—they managed to avoid being asked about some of the most egregious actions of their administration .
The unconscionable gassing of peaceful protesters in Lafayette Square has not been mentioned .
Neither has the monstrous separation of migrant children from their parents at the border , nor how hundreds of these innocent children have still not been reconnected with their families .
They have not been asked about the pernicious lie that they have spread about their campaign being spied upon by President @ @ @ @ @ @ @ racist chant demanding that four women of color , three of them born in America , “ go back ” to where they came from .
They have not been asked about the president ’ s stated belief—based on Vladimir Putin ’ s word—that Russia did not interfere in the 2016 election and that the president trusts Putin over our own intelligence services .
Nor have they been asked about the fact that they ran cover for Saudi Arabia ’ s execution of a Washington Post contributor .
They haven ’ t been @ @ @ @ @ @ @ paying for the wall .
Or how foreign interests are paying Trump businesses .
The president hasn ’ t even been confronted about an issue as fundamental as Parkland and how he hasn ’ t followed up on his promise to address gun violence in schools .
I could go on , but you get the point .
This is all part of the implicit biases that have favored Trump ever since he came down the escalator .
Jonathan Chait aptly describes Trump as having been held to a “ more forgiving standard @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rather than adjusting how he ’ s treated to meet the challenge , the established structures—in politics and the press—have tended to roll over or accommodate Trump while he lambastes them and depicts himself as a victim .
This same old song and dance is happening ahead of tonight ’ s showdown .
Trump is “ working the refs , ” smearing moderator Kristen Welker and complaining about the topics for the debate .
And his work is working .
The debate commission changed the rules and decided to mute each candidate ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ two-minute answers .
This change is liable to help Trump , protecting him from his worst impulses and making him seem like less of a child .
Meanwhile Trump is complaining about it , hoping to lower expectations or obtain further accommodations .
It ’ s a win-win .
As for the topics , Welker is limited by the broad categories approved by the commission , which will preclude narrow questions about Trump ’ s behavior .
On top of that , the usual conservative commentators have joined the president in claiming “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ word .
Under these pressures , it is simply human nature for her to try to ensure some “ balance ” in the types of questions .
And the prism through which many pundits and voters view the debate will be judging whether she is fair to him .
Once again Trump wins .
The good news is that the reason Trump and his butt boys have to commit so much time to pre-fighting on the atmospherics is because they know that if the debate is about his actual record , he ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ needs to be graded on a curve to even have a chance .
The only challenge for Welker is deciding which of his crimes and failures don ’ t merit a mention .

Donald Trump didn’t do very well at the first debate. He was irascible and boorish and, well, pretty much just a dick. Dan Bongino liked it. Voters didn’t.
The ensuing days didn’t go much better. The president contracted the novel coronavirus from a superspreader event at his own White House, was hospitalized, dramatically returned from to the White House with some freak-show Mark-Burnett-meets-Mussolini vibes, held a petulant town hall with Savannah Guthrie where he defended QAnon, and then went back on the campaign trail for the “Oh No . . . Not Another 20 years of Donald Trump” contagion tour.
In between all that, Mike Pence and Kamala Harris held a debate that was only really notable thanks to the appearance of a fly.
This is all just in the last three weeks. It is impossible to keep up.
And therein lies the real problem that the debate moderator, NBC’s Kristen Welker, faces tonight: No mortal can cover all of this president’s grotesqueries and atrocities in just 90 minutes.
Don’t believe me?
Well after two debates—debates in which President Trump and Vice President Pence were largely on the defensive—they managed to avoid being asked about some of the most egregious actions of their administration.
The unconscionable gassing of peaceful protesters in Lafayette Square has not been mentioned.
Neither has the monstrous separation of migrant children from their parents at the border, nor how hundreds of these innocent children have still not been reconnected with their families.
They have not been asked about the pernicious lie that they have spread about their campaign being spied upon by President Obama.
Or about Trump leading a racist chant demanding that four women of color, three of them born in America, “go back” to where they came from.
They have not been asked about the president’s stated belief—based on Vladimir Putin’s word—that Russia did not interfere in the 2016 election and that the president trusts Putin over our own intelligence services.
Nor have they been asked about the fact that they ran cover for Saudi Arabia’s execution of a Washington Post contributor.
They haven’t been asked about why Mexico isn’t paying for the wall.
Or how foreign interests are paying Trump businesses.
The president hasn’t even been confronted about an issue as fundamental as Parkland and how he hasn’t followed up on his promise to address gun violence in schools.
I could go on, but you get the point.
This is all part of the implicit biases that have favored Trump ever since he came down the escalator. Jonathan Chait aptly describes Trump as having been held to a “more forgiving standard than any modern president.”
And yet rather than adjusting how he’s treated to meet the challenge, the established structures—in politics and the press—have tended to roll over or accommodate Trump while he lambastes them and depicts himself as a victim.
Podcast · August 15 2023 A.B. Stoddard: All the Ex-President’s Conspirators Donald Trump has been a low-rent mobster for his entire career, and now he’s getting…
This same old song and dance is happening ahead of tonight’s showdown.
Trump is “working the refs,” smearing moderator Kristen Welker and complaining about the topics for the debate. And his work is working.
The debate commission changed the rules and decided to mute each candidate’s microphone when the other is giving two-minute answers. This change is liable to help Trump, protecting him from his worst impulses and making him seem like less of a child. Meanwhile Trump is complaining about it, hoping to lower expectations or obtain further accommodations. It’s a win-win.
As for the topics, Welker is limited by the broad categories approved by the commission, which will preclude narrow questions about Trump’s behavior. On top of that, the usual conservative commentators have joined the president in claiming “unfairness” before she has uttered a word. Under these pressures, it is simply human nature for her to try to ensure some “balance” in the types of questions. And the prism through which many pundits and voters view the debate will be judging whether she is fair to him. Once again Trump wins.
The good news is that the reason Trump and his butt boys have to commit so much time to pre-fighting on the atmospherics is because they know that if the debate is about his actual record, he’s playing a losing hand.
He needs to be graded on a curve to even have a chance.
The only challenge for Welker is deciding which of his crimes and failures don’t merit a mention.


thebulwark--2020-10-22--A Message to Democrats from Your New Ally

I ’ ve spent a lot of my life—far too much in retrospect—waging war on the Democratic party .
It was my job and I was good at it but in all those battles , even in the toughest of races , I never hated the other side .
I wanted to win each race with the heat of a thousand suns and when I did lose , I found it sickening in a way that hung with me longer than any victory .
But I never feared for the country if the Democrats won .
This year , for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I ’ m helping out the other side , because I very much do fear for the country under an even more unrestrained Donald Trump .
There are many good men and women in the Republican party , but they have proven themselves to be smaller than the moment demanded .
They stink of fear and desperation and it breaks my heart to watch them flail around trying to convince the world , and themselves , that they are not who they have proven to be .
I feel sadness .
I feel @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s Republicans are not worthy of the great legacy they inherited .
When grown men and women refuse to denounce a man who boasts he did not rape a woman because “ she was not my type , ” any semblance of public good has been lost .
I can ’ t direct the Republican party to the lost and found where it might reclaim its soul , but I do know that defeat , while not sufficient , is necessary in order for it to embark on that journey .
It @ @ @ @ @ @ @ working on the side of those whom you fought for so long .
Often in winning campaigns—and the Democrats are winning this campaign—there comes a giddy sense of satisfaction when you near the end .
I feel none of that .
For me there ’ s no joy in working against my former tribe .
I think the experience must be a little like having been a member of the First Alabama Cavalry , the soldiers from the deep South who remained loyal to the Union .
General Sherman relied on them as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was because he knew they had made a bitter choice that pitted them against friends and family—and once that line was crossed , they would not flinch seeing the task to completion .
So it is with those of us who are , or once were , Republicans now fighting against Trump and Trumpism .
Having spent decades attacking the Democratic party , I don ’ t approach your party with any illusions about it being perfect .
But I am convinced that the Democratic party has remained far truer to aspirational American @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that is the party which endorsed Roy Moore and welcomes the dangerous lunacy of QAnon .
I am proud to be helping a good and decent man like Joe Biden and I welcome the future that is represented by Senator Harris .
The Biden operation is running a superb campaign : disciplined and mature .
To launch as a frontrunner and stumble as badly as the Biden campaign did in the primary , there is tremendous pressure to change the candidacy in some dramatic and almost inevitably unsuccessful way .
The vice president @ @ @ @ @ @ @ down that path .
They decided to win or lose with who Joe Biden is .
And damn if they didn ’ t win .
The most vulnerable moment for any challenger facing an incumbent president is the period immediately after securing the nomination , when you are broke and trying to build a national organization out of a series of state races you were fighting just a few weeks earlier .
In all of modern politics , the Biden campaign is the only campaign that actually jumped out to a lead against @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Even given all of this success in a race where Biden has held a steady and sizable lead , I sense a strange lack of confidence with Democrats , as if they have been juggling eggs for most of a marathon and can ’ t believe they actually might cross the finish in first place .
In these last two weeks , I would plead with Democrats to change that mindset and banish the timidity .
If I ran the Democratic party , here ’ s what I ’ d be telling my @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a lot of Democrats can ’ t shake the nagging sense that overconfidence was one of the horsemen of the Trump 2016 apocalypse .
But this is actually a misreading of history .
It wasn ’ t overconfidence that hurt Hillary Clinton .
It was lack of urgency .
The inability to imagine Donald Trump has always been one of his great advantages .
Republican primary opponents couldn ’ t imagine that a bankrupt casino owner who talked in public about having sex with his daughter could win the Republican nomination .
Many @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that America would elect Donald Trump and so didn ’ t bother voting , or voted for third-party candidates in what they thought was a safe protest .
But we don ’ t need to imagine Donald Trump anymore .
We ’ ve seen the elephant .
We can ’ t stop seeing it , no matter how much we want to .
Trump has dominated our public life and intruded in our lives .
One of the great virtues of a civil society with a functioning democracy is the ability to not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ us of that right because he has brought our democracy to the brink .
So to my Democratic friends : Let us go forward in this final stretch with the confidence that our mission is vital and our opponent is weak .
Do not hesitate to swagger .
These last two weeks belong to you .
Years from now you will look back on these last days as some of the best in your lives .
An evil was unleashed in the country you love and you rose to smite it .
You @ @ @ @ @ @ @ collapsing and his allies of convenience are panicked .
Now is when you turn a victory into a rout .
We are all tired , but the other side isn ’ t just tired .
They are frightened and confused .
As they should be .
Because they are losing the fight for the soul of this country .
And they know it .

I’ve spent a lot of my life—far too much in retrospect—waging war on the Democratic party. It was my job and I was good at it but in all those battles, even in the toughest of races, I never hated the other side. I wanted to win each race with the heat of a thousand suns and when I did lose, I found it sickening in a way that hung with me longer than any victory. But I never feared for the country if the Democrats won.
This year, for the first time in my life, I’m helping out the other side, because I very much do fear for the country under an even more unrestrained Donald Trump. There are many good men and women in the Republican party, but they have proven themselves to be smaller than the moment demanded. They stink of fear and desperation and it breaks my heart to watch them flail around trying to convince the world, and themselves, that they are not who they have proven to be. I feel sadness. I feel pity. But not remorse.
Today’s Republicans are not worthy of the great legacy they inherited. When grown men and women refuse to denounce a man who boasts he did not rape a woman because “she was not my type,” any semblance of public good has been lost. I can’t direct the Republican party to the lost and found where it might reclaim its soul, but I do know that defeat, while not sufficient, is necessary in order for it to embark on that journey.
Podcast · August 15 2023 A.B. Stoddard: All the Ex-President’s Conspirators Donald Trump has been a low-rent mobster for his entire career, and now he’s getting…
It’s a strange feeling to be working on the side of those whom you fought for so long. Often in winning campaigns—and the Democrats are winning this campaign—there comes a giddy sense of satisfaction when you near the end. I feel none of that. For me there’s no joy in working against my former tribe. I think the experience must be a little like having been a member of the First Alabama Cavalry, the soldiers from the deep South who remained loyal to the Union. General Sherman relied on them as his personal escort. I suspect it was because he knew they had made a bitter choice that pitted them against friends and family—and once that line was crossed, they would not flinch seeing the task to completion. So it is with those of us who are, or once were, Republicans now fighting against Trump and Trumpism.
Having spent decades attacking the Democratic party, I don’t approach your party with any illusions about it being perfect. But I am convinced that the Democratic party has remained far truer to aspirational American values than the compromised, moral disgrace that is the party which endorsed Roy Moore and welcomes the dangerous lunacy of QAnon.
I am proud to be helping a good and decent man like Joe Biden and I welcome the future that is represented by Senator Harris.
The Biden operation is running a superb campaign: disciplined and mature. To launch as a frontrunner and stumble as badly as the Biden campaign did in the primary, there is tremendous pressure to change the candidacy in some dramatic and almost inevitably unsuccessful way. The vice president and his campaign didn’t go down that path. They decided to win or lose with who Joe Biden is. And damn if they didn’t win.
The most vulnerable moment for any challenger facing an incumbent president is the period immediately after securing the nomination, when you are broke and trying to build a national organization out of a series of state races you were fighting just a few weeks earlier. In all of modern politics, the Biden campaign is the only campaign that actually jumped out to a lead against an incumbent during this tenuous time.
Even given all of this success in a race where Biden has held a steady and sizable lead, I sense a strange lack of confidence with Democrats, as if they have been juggling eggs for most of a marathon and can’t believe they actually might cross the finish in first place.
In these last two weeks, I would plead with Democrats to change that mindset and banish the timidity. If I ran the Democratic party, here’s what I’d be telling my troops:
We are going to crush Donald Trump and the sickness he represents. There are more of us than there are of them. We are right. They are wrong. This is our moment. This is our destiny. Walk with confidence. Do not falter. Victory will be ours.
That sounds terribly overconfident and a lot of Democrats can’t shake the nagging sense that overconfidence was one of the horsemen of the Trump 2016 apocalypse. But this is actually a misreading of history.
It wasn’t overconfidence that hurt Hillary Clinton. It was lack of urgency. The inability to imagine Donald Trump has always been one of his great advantages. Republican primary opponents couldn’t imagine that a bankrupt casino owner who talked in public about having sex with his daughter could win the Republican nomination. Many general election voters considered it an impossibility that America would elect Donald Trump and so didn’t bother voting, or voted for third-party candidates in what they thought was a safe protest.
But we don’t need to imagine Donald Trump anymore. We’ve seen the elephant. We can’t stop seeing it, no matter how much we want to. Trump has dominated our public life and intruded in our lives. One of the great virtues of a civil society with a functioning democracy is the ability to not think about politics. Trump has robbed us of that right because he has brought our democracy to the brink.
So to my Democratic friends: Let us go forward in this final stretch with the confidence that our mission is vital and our opponent is weak.
Do not hesitate to swagger. These last two weeks belong to you. Years from now you will look back on these last days as some of the best in your lives. An evil was unleashed in the country you love and you rose to smite it. You will slay this dragon.
Trump is collapsing and his allies of convenience are panicked.
Now is when you turn a victory into a rout. We are all tired, but the other side isn’t just tired. They are frightened and confused. As they should be. Because they are losing the fight for the soul of this country. And they know it.
Victory is near.


thebulwark--2020-10-22--Secretly, the 2020 Election Is About Health Care

About 30 percent of voters rank the economy as their top issue , with another 30 percent or so putting COVID-19 and health care at the top as well .
This goes across all the divides : rich and poor , Republican and Democrat , decided and undecided , old and young , suburban and urban .
Most people are concerned about having enough money and being physically healthy .
But this past weekend , at rallies in Michigan and Wisconsin , Donald Trump barely mentioned the COVID-19 pandemic .
And had hardly anything to say about health care , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ usual “ lock her up ” chant going ( this time for Michigan Gov .
Gretchen Whitmer rather than Hillary Clinton ) and said that re-electing him would result in “ surging prosperity.
” And he threw in some super-subtle rumblings about how the suburbs were in danger of having the wrong people living in them if Joe Biden becomes president .
But the president ’ s closing argument sounded less like an attempt to win votes than the usual riffing he does when he calls into Hannity .
Wisconsin is currently seeing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the country , with a record numbers of nearly 4,000 new cases reported the day before Trump spoke in Janesville .
The surge of infections has pushed Wisconsin state officials to open an emergency field hospital .
Meanwhile , outbreaks of COVID-19 in Michigan have sent new daily cases surging to the highest single-day level since the pandemic started .
Even the Upper Peninsula , a rural region that was once relatively untouched by the virus , has seen jumps in COVID-19 cases .
One of the few times Trump has mentioned health @ @ @ @ @ @ @ regarding the Affordable Care Act during last week ’ s NBC town hall broadcast with correspondent Savannah Guthrie .
“ You ’ ve been in office almost four years , ” Guthrie said .
“ You had both houses of Congress , Senate and House , in Republican hands .
And there is not a replacement yet .
.
.
.
The promise was repeal and replace.
” “ Look , look , we should be on the same side , ” Trump answered .
“ I want it very simple .
I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ simple .
We would like to terminate it and we would like to replace it with something that ’ s much less expensive and much better .
We will always protect people with pre-existing conditions.
” This is , just as a matter of politics , a terrible position to be trying to sell to the public .
Trump and Republicans still talk about the ACA like it ’ s 2010 when the truth is that the public now supports it by wide margins .
The current numbers from the Kaiser Family Foundation @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 55 percent favorable to 39 percent unfavorable .
A New York Times/Siena College poll released this week likewise shows support for Obamacare at a 55 percent to 40 percent margin .
Women bump that up to 62-33 percent .
The support/oppose numbers break predictably along party lines , but independent voters are very much pro-ACA , supporting it by 55-37 percent .
Repeal and replace is no longer acceptable for most of the public .
In a Midwestern Great Lakes Poll released in early October , that 56 percent of voters in Michigan @ @ @ @ @ @ @ states that really matter—were in favor of the ACA with only 36 percent opposed .
Lauren Copeland , professor of political science at Ohio Baldwin Wallace University tells The Bulwark that when the ACA took effect in 2010 , “ the basis for whether people liked it or not was based whether they liked [ former President Barack ] Obama or not .
Now , as the policy is entrenched is institutionalized , people want their older kids on it , they want pre-existing conditions covered and an open marketplace , they support @ @ @ @ @ @ @ won these state four years ago , and how COVID-19 is hitting this part of the country hard right now , ” she says , “ it is hard to see why the Trump campaign is avoiding health care.
” Also odd is how Trump talks about health care on the rare occasions he does bring it up .
“ We are rounding the corner , ” Trump said in Janesville .
“ The vaccines are unbelievable .
Except for a little politics .
We have unbelievable vaccines coming out real soon .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ by Trump : Any of the facets of health care that voters say are important to them : • Protections for pre-existing conditions ( very or somewhat important to 94 percent ) • The future of the ACA ( 74 percent ) Donald Trump is an unconventional candidate running a campaign that is disorganized in the extreme .
We have been subjected to nearly a dozen October surprises .
Yet in the most important states the race may be determined by the most obvious of factors : There is an overriding issue that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ candidates talks about this issue and has plans to address it .
And the other candidate does not .
It ’ s the oldest truism in politics : You can ’ t be something with nothing .

About 30 percent of voters rank the economy as their top issue, with another 30 percent or so putting COVID-19 and health care at the top as well. This goes across all the divides: rich and poor, Republican and Democrat, decided and undecided, old and young, suburban and urban. Most people are concerned about having enough money and being physically healthy.
Go figure.
But this past weekend, at rallies in Michigan and Wisconsin, Donald Trump barely mentioned the COVID-19 pandemic. And had hardly anything to say about health care, either.
Oh, he got the usual “lock her up” chant going (this time for Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer rather than Hillary Clinton) and said that re-electing him would result in “surging prosperity.” And he threw in some super-subtle rumblings about how the suburbs were in danger of having the wrong people living in them if Joe Biden becomes president.
But the president’s closing argument sounded less like an attempt to win votes than the usual riffing he does when he calls into Hannity.
Podcast · August 15 2023 A.B. Stoddard: All the Ex-President’s Conspirators Donald Trump has been a low-rent mobster for his entire career, and now he’s getting…
Wisconsin is currently seeing one of the worst coronavirus outbreaks in the country, with a record numbers of nearly 4,000 new cases reported the day before Trump spoke in Janesville. The surge of infections has pushed Wisconsin state officials to open an emergency field hospital.
Meanwhile, outbreaks of COVID-19 in Michigan have sent new daily cases surging to the highest single-day level since the pandemic started. Even the Upper Peninsula, a rural region that was once relatively untouched by the virus, has seen jumps in COVID-19 cases.
One of the few times Trump has mentioned health care was in response to a question regarding the Affordable Care Act during last week’s NBC town hall broadcast with correspondent Savannah Guthrie. “You’ve been in office almost four years,” Guthrie said. “You had both houses of Congress, Senate and House, in Republican hands. And there is not a replacement yet. . . . The promise was repeal and replace.”
“Look, look, we should be on the same side,” Trump answered. “I want it very simple. I’m going to put it very simple. We would like to terminate it and we would like to replace it with something that’s much less expensive and much better. We will always protect people with pre-existing conditions.”
This is, just as a matter of politics, a terrible position to be trying to sell to the public. Trump and Republicans still talk about the ACA like it’s 2010 when the truth is that the public now supports it by wide margins.
The current numbers from the Kaiser Family Foundation have the ACA approval nationally running at 55 percent favorable to 39 percent unfavorable. A New York Times/Siena College poll released this week likewise shows support for Obamacare at a 55 percent to 40 percent margin. Women bump that up to 62-33 percent. The support/oppose numbers break predictably along party lines, but independent voters are very much pro-ACA, supporting it by 55-37 percent. Repeal and replace is no longer acceptable for most of the public.
In a Midwestern Great Lakes Poll released in early October, that 56 percent of voters in Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—the states that really matter—were in favor of the ACA with only 36 percent opposed.
Lauren Copeland, professor of political science at Ohio Baldwin Wallace University tells The Bulwark that when the ACA took effect in 2010, “the basis for whether people liked it or not was based whether they liked [former President Barack] Obama or not. Now, as the policy is entrenched is institutionalized, people want their older kids on it, they want pre-existing conditions covered and an open marketplace, they support it.”
“Given that Trump barely won these state four years ago, and how COVID-19 is hitting this part of the country hard right now,” she says, “it is hard to see why the Trump campaign is avoiding health care.”
Also odd is how Trump talks about health care on the rare occasions he does bring it up. “We are rounding the corner,” Trump said in Janesville. “The vaccines are unbelievable. Except for a little politics. We have unbelievable vaccines coming out real soon. And the therapeutics are unbelievable.”
Unmentioned by Trump: Any of the facets of health care that voters say are important to them:
Protections for pre-existing conditions (very or somewhat important to 94 percent)
Lowering of health care costs (92 percent)
The future of Medicare (90 percent)
Health effects from the coronavirus (95 percent)
The future of the ACA (74 percent)
Donald Trump is an unconventional candidate running a campaign that is disorganized in the extreme. We have been subjected to nearly a dozen October surprises.
Yet in the most important states the race may be determined by the most obvious of factors: There is an overriding issue that matters to voters. One of the candidates talks about this issue and has plans to address it.
And the other candidate does not.
It’s the oldest truism in politics: You can’t be something with nothing.


thebulwark--2020-10-22--Madison Cawthorn’s Racist Website

Madison Cawthorn’s Racist Website

A new attack website put up by the Madison Cawthorn campaign includes an explicitly racist broadside against his opponent , Moe Davis ( D-NC ) , for associating himself with people who want to “ ruin white males.
” The website , MoeTaxes.com takes aim at Davis over his purported association with a local journalist , Tom Fiedler .
It says that Fiedler “ quit his academia job in Boston to work for non-white males , like Cory Booker who aims to ruin white males.
” Putting the atrocious syntax aside… Quitting one ’ s job to work for someone @ @ @ @ @ @ @ problem now ?
Booker ’ s blackness is the issue that offends you ?
Cawthorn ’ s despicable smear echoes President Trump ’ s recent racist dog whistle ( dog horn ? )
attacks on Booker .
Trump has made a feature of his stump speech a line about how Joe Biden plans to send Cory Booker of all people into the suburbs to somehow ruin everything for reasons that are a total mystery .
Wink .
But Cawthorn is happy to say the loud part even louder : Cory Booker… you shouldn @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s “ non-white ” … and “ ruining white males.
” The Cawthorn campaign is running a Facebook ad campaign directing users to this attack site which—just for good measure—also claims that Democrats like Davis “ spew violence and hate.
” ( The Cawthorn campaign also took credit for the page in a recent press release and Facebook post . )
For those who aren ’ t familiar with his backstory , Cawthorn is a 25-year-old wunderkind who beat the establishment Republican choice to succeed Mark Meadows in NC-11 when Meadows stepped @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of staff .
He went on to be one of the featured speakers at the Republican National Convention .
Cawthorn was also recently the target of a letter from his college classmates that accused him of participating in “ gross misconduct towards our female peers.
” Despite claiming to represent a new generation of Republicans , like the rest of the young Generation Trump , Cawthorn has learned that Republican voters are less interested in the regulatory regime than in uncut white identity politics .
In addition to targeting Davis for associating with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the microsite also smeared him as a “ terrorist defender ” who commits “ perversion.
” But , like the rest of Generation Trump , Cawthorn is also learning that while it ’ s easy to dominate a Republican primary with this stuff , winning a general election is harder .
The National Journal Hotline reported this morning that a Democratic internal poll has Davis ahead by 3 points , which may explain Cawthorn ’ s increasingly aggressive tactics .
If Cawthorn goes down in defeat , at least we know he @ @ @ @ @ @ @ who is black , since his closing message against Moe Davis is Make America 1950 Again .
Update 6:20 PM – An earlier version of this article described Tom “ Fieldler ” ( sic ) as working with the Moe Davis campaign based on a false description on the Cawthorn website .
In fact , Tom Fiedler is a journalist covering the campaign .
We ’ ve updated the article to reflect .
Updated 6:35 PM – Since publication MoeTaxes.com has been updated to replace the “ non-white males ” and “ ruin @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with language about how Moe supports “ left-wing identity politics .
”

A new attack website put up by the Madison Cawthorn campaign includes an explicitly racist broadside against his opponent, Moe Davis (D-N.C.), for associating himself with people who want to “ruin white males.”
For real.
The website, MoeTaxes.com, takes aim at Davis over his purported association with a local journalist, Tom Fiedler. It says that Fiedler “quit his academia job in Boston to work for non-white males, like Cory Booker who aims to ruin white males.”
Putting the atrocious syntax aside: Quitting one’s job to work for someone who isn’t white is . . . a problem now? Booker’s blackness is the issue that offends you?
In Donald Trump’s white grievance party, apparently so.
Cawthorn’s despicable smear echoes President Trump’s recent racist dog whistle (dog horn?) attacks on Booker. Trump has made a feature of his stump speech a line about how Joe Biden plans to send Cory Booker of all people into the suburbs to somehow ruin everything for reasons that are a total mystery. Wink.
But Cawthorn is happy to say the loud part even louder: Cory Booker . . . you shouldn’t work for him because he’s “non-white” . . . and “ruining white males.”
Horrific.
Podcast · August 15 2023 A.B. Stoddard: All the Ex-President’s Conspirators Donald Trump has been a low-rent mobster for his entire career, and now he’s getting…
The Cawthorn campaign is running a Facebook ad campaign directing users to this attack site which—just for good measure—also claims that Democrats like Davis “spew violence and hate.” (The Cawthorn campaign also took credit for the page in a recent press release and Facebook post.)
For those who aren’t familiar with his backstory, Cawthorn is a 25-year-old wunderkind who beat the establishment Republican choice to succeed Mark Meadows in NC-11 when Meadows stepped down to become Trump’s chief of staff. He went on to be one of the featured speakers at the Republican National Convention. Cawthorn was also recently the target of a letter from his college classmates that accused him of participating in “gross misconduct towards our female peers.”
Despite claiming to represent a new generation of Republicans, like the rest of the young Generation Trump, Cawthorn has learned that Republican voters are less interested in the regulatory regime than in uncut white identity politics. In addition to targeting Davis for associating with someone who worked for a black man, the microsite also smeared him as a “terrorist defender” who commits “perversion.”
But, like the rest of Generation Trump, Cawthorn is also learning that while it’s easy to dominate a Republican primary with this stuff, winning a general election is harder. National Journal’s Hotline reported this morning that a Democratic internal poll has Davis ahead by 3 points, which may explain Cawthorn’s increasingly aggressive tactics.
If Cawthorn goes down in defeat, at least we know he won’t go work for anyone who is black, since his closing message against Moe Davis is Make America 1950 Again.
Update, October 22, 2020, 6:20 p.m. – An earlier version of this article described Tom “Fieldler” (sic) as working with the Moe Davis campaign, based on a false description on the Cawthorn website. In fact, Tom Fiedler is a journalist covering the campaign. We have corrected the reference to Mr. Fiedler.
Update, October 22, 2020, 6:35 p.m. – Since the publication of this article, the MoeTaxes.com site has been updated to replace the “non-white males” and “ruin white males” attack with language about how Moe supports “left-wing identity politics.”


Trump Is Toast

A few hours ago I wrote a piece explaining in some detail why , if you take a 360-degree view of all of the polling data we ’ ve gathered over the last four years , the current view—that Donald Trump is losing by roughly 9 points—makes sense .
Since the time of that writing there have been two developments that suggest we can take this conclusion further : Donald Trump is going to lose the presidency , probably by a historic margin .
The first report is a new poll from Gallup that asks the fundamental question : “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ reelected ?
” That ’ s -13 for Trump .
Only 1 percent of the sample had no opinion .
This is death for an incumbent .
By comparison : In the same poll , 60 percent of respondents said that their member of Congress deserves reelection and only 35 percent say their member does not .
So get your head around that : On the two federal offices that every American can vote on two weeks from now , the average member of Congress is +25 on reelect ; President Trump is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ no shyness , no conspiracy that can overcome numbers like that .
The only thing that could save Trump in this environment would be a COVID-driven black swan in turnout .
And for Trump that would mean low turnout .
Because the lower the turnout , the less representative the polls might be .
The higher turnout , the greater the polls ’ predictive power .
Which brings us to the second item : FiveThirtyEight is predicting a total turnout between 144 million and 165 million votes—with their pin set at 154 million @ @ @ @ @ @ @ see Trump winning with turnout under 140 million votes .
But if we wind up north of 144 million it becomes basically impossible .
One reason turnout matters is that the higher it goes , the less important the samples are—and thus the more reliable the polls are as indicators of reality .
If 2020 turnout jumps 5 percent from 2016 , it would be a lot .
If it jumps 10 percent it would mean a Biden landslide .
( There were 137 million votes in 2016 . )
If we get @ @ @ @ @ @ @ looking at the most resounding defeat of an incumbent president in—at least—40 years .
Put those two numbers together—Trump -13 on reelect and turnout in the vicinity of 154 million—and you have a campaign that is effectively over .
The only open question is the magnitude of Trump ’ s coming loss .
But one thing is not in doubt : When America wakes up on November 4 , Joe Biden will have earned more votes than any man who ’ s ever run for president .
That doesn ’ t tell us @ @ @ @ @ @ @ course .
You don ’ t get , say , an extra Supreme Court appointment just for getting more votes than any presidential candidate in American history .
But it will be part of his mandate , part of the continuing realignment of American politics , and the most vociferous rejection of a sitting president in decades—and possibly in any of our lifetimes .
The Democratic party will have a chance to rebuild America .
And the Republican party will have defeat with dishonor .

A few hours ago I wrote a piece explaining in some detail why, if you take a 360-degree view of all of the polling data we’ve gathered over the last four years, the current view—that Donald Trump is losing by roughly 9 points—makes sense.
Since the time of that writing there have been two developments that suggest we can take this conclusion further:
Donald Trump is going to lose the presidency, probably by a historic margin.
The first report is a new poll from Gallup that asks the fundamental question: “Does President Donald Trump deserve to be reelected?”
56 percent say “no.”
43 percent say “yes.”
That’s -13 for Trump. Only 1 percent of the sample had no opinion.
This is death for an incumbent. By comparison: In the same poll, 60 percent of respondents said that their member of Congress deserves reelection and only 35 percent say their member does not.
So get your head around that: On the two federal offices that every American can vote on two weeks from now, the average member of Congress is +25 on reelect; President Trump is -13.
There is no skew, no shyness, no conspiracy that can overcome numbers like that.
Podcast · August 15 2023 A.B. Stoddard: All the Ex-President’s Conspirators Donald Trump has been a low-rent mobster for his entire career, and now he’s getting…
The only thing that could save Trump in this environment would be a COVID-driven black swan in turnout. And for Trump that would mean low turnout. Because the lower the turnout, the less representative the polls might be. The higher turnout, the greater the polls’ predictive power.
Which brings us to the second item: FiveThirtyEight is predicting a total turnout between 144 million and 165 million votes—with their pin set at 154 million votes.
It was difficult enough to see Trump winning with turnout under 140 million votes. But if we wind up north of 144 million it becomes basically impossible.
One reason turnout matters is that the higher it goes, the less important the samples are—and thus the more reliable the polls are as indicators of reality.
If 2020 turnout jumps 5 percent from 2016, it would be a lot. If it jumps 10 percent it would mean a Biden landslide. (There were 137 million votes in 2016.) If we get 154 million votes then Trump will be looking at the most resounding defeat of an incumbent president in—at least—40 years.
Put those two numbers together—Trump -13 on reelect and turnout in the vicinity of 154 million—and you have a campaign that is effectively over. The only open question is the magnitude of Trump’s coming loss.
But one thing is not in doubt: When America wakes up on November 4, Joe Biden will have earned more votes than any man who’s ever run for president.
That doesn’t tell us anything about a Biden presidency, of course. You don’t get, say, an extra Supreme Court appointment just for getting more votes than any presidential candidate in American history. But it will be part of his mandate, part of the continuing realignment of American politics, and the most vociferous rejection of a sitting president in decades—and possibly in any of our lifetimes.
The Democratic party will have a chance to rebuild America.
And the Republican party will have defeat with dishonor.


thebulwark--2020-10-23--Beyond the Debate: Trump Is Running on Empty

Last night Trump blew his last , best chance to save his campaign—from himself .
This debate still mattered .
Although Trump is wheezing uphill , a path to victory still exists : most likely , harvesting the combined 64 electoral votes of Florida , Pennsylvania , and North Carolina .
In each of those states Trump has banked a substantial advantage in new voter registrations .
His imperative now is to bring home disaffected Republicans and persuadable independents .
Combine that with relentless voter suppression and post-election maneuvers , and Trump might yet have a chance .
Set aside @ @ @ @ @ @ @ do our democracy incalculable damage .
That Trump pursues it so openly underscores his central dilemma : He can not help flaunting his own repellent pathology .
Last night ’ s debate was made even more critical for Trump by Trump himself : Ever the petulant fool , he ducked out of a scheduled second debate after it became virtual—because , in his carelessness for others , he had contracted COVID-19 .
Worse , he filled the time slot with a one–man town hall which he swiftly converted into an orgy of indecent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to disavow QAnon—the lunatic group which believes that Democrats are spearheading a satanic ring of cannibalistic pedophiles—Trump claimed he knows “ nothing about QAnon ” or “ very little , ” but praised their devotion to protecting children .
( In August , remember , he also noted that “ they like me very much.
” ) When Trump refused to disown his retweeting of the insane assertion that Barack Obama killed SEAL Team Six to cover up the fake death of bin Laden , Guthrie protested in lacerating wonder : “ You @ @ @ @ @ @ @ re not like someone ’ s crazy uncle who can just retweet whatever !
” But he is , and so he does , quite relentlessly , “ whatever ” —starting with serving as his own politically demented campaign manager .
Bemoans veteran GOP poster Frank Luntz : “ It is the worst campaign I ’ ve ever seen and I ’ ve been watching them since 1980 .
They ’ re on the wrong issues .
They ’ re on the wrong message .
They ’ ve got their heads up their @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to reach undecided voters , Trump seeks out shills like Sean Hannity to serve as his media comfort animals .
Impervious to advice , he slights running on his only residual strength—his perceived economic stewardship—in favor of recycled recitations of feuds , resentments , and personal grievances of interest to no one save the most insular members of his base .
In a call scheduled to energize thousands of campaign workers , Trump raised their spirits by labeling Anthony Fauci a “ disaster , ” claiming that the media was filled with “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Biden should “ be in jail , ” and revealing that Americans are sick of hearing about a deadly pandemic which is resurging on his watch .
His rallies for the faithful—conducted without regard for public health protocols—have become a numbingly familiar litany of preposterous venom : Biden is a “ socialist ” ; Kamala Harris “ a communist ” ; and the government riddled with obscure deep-state actors whose singular mission is to persecute Trump .
Meanwhile , the number of daily new cases of COVID has jumped 33 percent in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ states like Wisconsin and Iowa .
After 10 months , Trump still has no coherent plan to control the spread of the disease—preferring , despite the rising toll of death , to claim that America is “ rounding the corner ” and speeding toward a “ cure ” which does not exist .
After all , he told his campaign workers , “ People are tired of hearing Fauci and all these idiots.
” Blame the media , he told rallygoers in Arizona : “ You turn on CNN , that ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pandemic , COVID , COVID , COVID .
You know why ?
They ’ re trying to talk everybody out of voting .
People aren ’ t buying it , CNN .
You dumb bastards.
” But not as dumb , apparently , as the 220,000 Americans who died instead of rounding the corner .
Trump ’ s coronavirus task force has degenerated into a fractious and anti-scientific netherworld .
The protagonist of this disarray , Dr. Scott Atlas , is a professionally unqualified catspaw for Trump who embraces the dangerous theory of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ masks , and views testing for younger people as superfluous—as if the young don ’ t infect the older and more vulnerable .
Little wonder that , as the Washington Post reports , the genuine experts stuck with Atlas despise him .
But Atlas also serves to encourage Trump ’ s opposition to money for testing as part of a second stimulus package , and to inspire his dismissive remark to Guthrie that “ I ’ ve heard many different stories on masks.
” When Guthrie responded that government health officials uniformly advocate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ Scott Adkins.
” To Guthrie ’ s rejoinder that Atlas “ is not an infectious disease expert , ” Trump replied : “ He ’ s one of the great experts of the world ” —meaning , one must assume , that special world of Trump ’ s own .
This would be farcical were it not so deadly .
Last Sunday on Meet the Press , Dr. Michael Osterholm warned that “ the next 6 to 12 weeks are going to be the darkest of the entire pandemic.
” While Trump @ @ @ @ @ @ @ critical mass of the electorate does .
Unsurprisingly , a fresh New York Times/Siena College poll shows that voters are focused on stemming the pandemic and rescuing a stymied economy with more stimulus spending .
Critically , Biden leads Trump by 12 points as the leader best suited to cope with the coronavirus .
As a corollary , Biden is catching up on the question of economic stewardship .
But instead of addressing Americans concerned with a virus which is threatening their health while transforming every aspect of life , Trump views himself @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that is why he blew off another chance to speak to the public at large—storming out of a taping for 60 Minutes because Leslie Stahl was asking too many questions about COVID-19 .
But the political landscape depicted by the Times/Siena poll offers Trump little refuge .
He is losing support among his base voters , non-college-educated whites .
On issue upon issue , respondents favor Biden : maintaining law and order ; uniting the country ; selecting Supreme Court justices ; and , critically , providing healthcare .
At a time when @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to worsen , a Kaiser Family Foundation poll showed that 79 percent of Americans want to preserve protections for people with pre-existing conditions , and that a solid majority oppose abrogating Obamacare .
Even immigration , once Trump ’ s signature issue , is losing force .
According to Gallup , more Americans than ever before are now inclined to believe that immigrants enrich the country , and to sympathize with refugees from hardship and oppression .
An appalling report from NBC News underscores why : Lawyers appointed by a federal judge to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ found the parents of 545 children—two-thirds of whom were deported to Central America without their kids .
The issue of greatest potential adversity for Biden is expanding the Supreme Court—the Times/Siena poll found that 58 percent of voters are opposed , and only 31 percent are supportive .
But Biden has taken no position , and he ’ s too savvy to validate Trump ’ s attacks by unequivocally embracing court packing .
Instead , he told 60 Minutes that he would create a bipartisan commission to study the issue of Supreme Court @ @ @ @ @ @ @ after he becomes president—neatly defanging the question .
So what is the issue which Trump imagines will rally Americans to his side ?
The perfidy of Hunter Biden .
The kernel from which this notion springs is a report in the New York Post—planted by that unimpeachable source and Borat bit player Rudy Giuliani—so dubious that the reporters directed to write it removed their byline .
The essence is that Biden ’ s surviving son supposedly brokered a meeting between his father and a shady Ukrainian gas company .
Biden ’ s campaign @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the FBI is investigating whether the report originated with a disinformation campaign run by Russian intelligence .
Unruffled , Trump fulminated on Fox & Friends that Attorney General William Barr must immediately investigate Biden and his son because “ this is major corruption , and we have to know about this before the election.
” So much for the rule of law .
But the purely political problem with Trump ’ s obsession is identified by the GOP ’ s Frank Luntz : “ Hunter Biden does not help put food on the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ anyone get a job .
Hunter Biden does not provide health care or solve COVID .
And Donald Trump spends all of his time focused on that and nobody cares.
” Even more than the pandemic , that besetting pathology—Trump ’ s crippling inability to distinguish the needs of others from his own—has become has become the defining issue of this campaign .
Americans may be sickened by COVID , but they are sick of Donald Trump .
Even a few Republicans are shaking off their party ’ s Stockholm syndrome .
As @ @ @ @ @ @ @ call with constituents : “ What the heck were any of us thinking that selling a TV-obsessed narcissistic individual to the American people was a good idea ?
” But despite the strangled angst of Republicans teetering on the electoral abyss , true to his narcissism Trump sees the campaign solely as a mirror of self .
As a Republican strategist told the New York Times : “ The president appears to have doubled down on a base election strategy , while Republicans down ballot must figure out a way to appeal to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and Maine and Michigan.
” No doubt they envy the Democrats , who managed to select a presidential candidate who is not only adequately socialized , but sane .
That man , Joe Biden , conducted a parallel town hall last week with significantly more viewers than Trump ’ s—a largely serene ninety minutes during which he showed a detailed command of public policy .
But the heart of his message is a pledge to heal a country riven by Trump ’ s corrosive instability .
To that end , he has crafted @ @ @ @ @ @ @ within his own party while appealing to persuadable voters at large .
Equally important is the unifying spirit of his symbolically situated speech at Gettysburg : “ We are facing too many crises , we have too much work to do , we have too bright a future to have it shipwrecked on the shoals of anger and hate and division.
” In contrast , Trump is banking on anger , hate and division to pull him out .
But though the polls are tightening a bit , as anticipated , Biden continues @ @ @ @ @ @ @ states : Pennsylvania , Michigan , Wisconsin , North Carolina , Florida , and Arizona .
Thus in Thursday night ’ s debate , Trump needed to seriously discredit Biden as a prospective president , while—somehow—making himself more attractive to the dwindling supply of persuadable voters .
Even a candidate less denuded of self-awareness would find that dual mission challenging .
Perhaps mercifully for a man so unequipped to calibrate his own behaviors , the self-destructive hectoring which marked Trump ’ s first debate was minimized by a new rule muting microphones , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ minutes a subject without interruption .
That left Trump to hope that Biden , unassisted , would become sufficiently incoherent to discredit himself .
But Trump has no sustained message of his own , and conjuring a more substantive and empathic persona is way beyond his capacity—even before the debate , he was lashing out at moderator Kristen Welker as “ totally partisan.
” Other than playing the victim and working the referee , his plans for seizing the popular imagination in these dispiriting times focused on—yes , Hunter Biden .
Biden needed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ display sufficient command of substance and self to personify leadership .
His singular advantage was that Trump came dragging the millstone of his own presidency—and the public weariness with Trump the man .
Somehow , some way , he had to persuade voters that four more years of this was safer than trusting Joe Biden to lead us forward .
In an odd way , the debate occurred on two levels .
The first was a superficially standard political contest .
Order was maintained .
Voices were modulated .
Words turned into sentences @ @ @ @ @ @ @ much to the evening ’ s lynchpin , Welker , and the blessed interposition of the mute function .
Under Welker ’ s firm guidance , for much of the time Trump resembled a normal human being who , if anything , seemed a bit more hale than his rival—a remarkable testament to the world-class care lavished on him when he contracted COVID-19 .
But the second level involved substance .
An extremely low-information voter , unfamiliar with the issues , might have considered it an even match , and Trump the more @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of his performance was a void : of achievement ; of knowledge ; of proposals for the future ; and , in several cases , of fundamental humanity .
Instead Trump consumed a great deal of airtime with lies , evasions , and weapons-grade exaggerations , most conspicuously about the coronavirus and the supposed corruption of Joe and Hunter Biden .
Not only did we learn , yet again , that America was “ rounding the corner ” in its fight with the coronavirus , but that foreign leaders expressed amazement at his @ @ @ @ @ @ @ over 2 million Americans would have died .
About the roughly 223,000 who have died , Trump expressed little sadness .
After all , we were “ learning to live ” with the virus—to which Biden mordantly responded that we ’ re “ learning to die with it.
” To Biden ’ s indictment of his derelictions , Trump had little to say .
Biden crisply recited his plan to restore public health and the economy .
Trump had no plan save for an as-yet undeveloped vaccine and a nonexistent “ cure.
” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ throughout .
On healthcare , he promised that in some happy future he would come up with a “ beautiful ” plan , then falsely accused Biden of wanting to abolish private insurance and establish “ socialized medicine.
” Again , Biden calmly laid out his actual proposal .
Prodded about climate change , Trump excoriated the Paris climate accord and claimed that Biden wanted to abolish fracking but , yet again , offered nothing of his own .
Biden corrected the record—he does not want to abolish fracking—and described his vision of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ millions of new jobs .
As to child separation and the 545 children in federal custody whose parents can not be found , Trump falsely insinuated that the Obama administration had initiated the policy .
Biden fiercely ( and correctly ) denied this and said the policy “ violates every notion of who we are as a nation.
” Further , he described his own immigration plan : a path to citizenship for Dreamers and undocumented immigrants .
About that , too , Trump offered nothing save to complain about “ catch and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Indeed , Trump expressed no sympathy for traumatized children deprived of parents , or Dreamers facing deportation for no fault of their own—which would be the reflex of any politician with a dollop of humanity , or even the ability to fake it .
But this was one of several occasions where Trump confirmed that this part of him is simply missing .
When Welker asked both men to address the fears of black parents compelled to coach their kids on how to behave when stopped by police , Trump simply could @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
And when she raised the issue of families whose health is endangered by their proximity to petroleum refineries , Trump said only that refinery workers were well paid .
Trump was—no surprise—much more voluble when smearing Biden and his son .
Repeatedly , and with no basis whatsoever , he claimed that Joe Biden had taken money from various foreign governments .
Attacking Hunter Biden with more gusto than clarity , Trump descended into the murk of Fox News conspiracy theories more confusing than galvanizing for anyone not a cognoscente .
In @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with appropriate brevity and scorn .
Finally , he spoke directly to the national audience : “ It ’ s not about his family and my family .
It ’ s about your family.
” Reprising this moment toward the end of the debate , Biden again looked into the camera .
“ You know who he is , ” he said of Trump .
“ You know his character .
You know my character .
You know our reputations for honor and telling the truth.
” Those were Biden ’ s strongest @ @ @ @ @ @ @ came during a discussion of energy policy in the debate ’ s closing moments .
“ Would you close down the oil industry ?
” Trump asked him .
“ I would have a transition from the oil industry , yes , ” Biden answered .
“ Because the oil industry pollutes , significantly .
.
.
.
Because it has to be replaced by renewable energy.
” When Biden tried to clarify that the transition would occur “ over time , ” Trump cut in , crowing : “ Basically , what @ @ @ @ @ @ @ going to destroy the oil industry .
Will you remember that , Texas ?
Will you remember that , Pennsylvania , Oklahoma ?
” Biden ’ s phrasing was inartful , so perhaps some voters will .
But , for most , it seems unlikely to make a difference .
For Trump to seem modulated , while novel , was not enough .
He needed to deliver a knockout blow—turning Biden supporters into Trump voters .
Nothing he did in this moderately interesting evening seemed close to that , and now he has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of his own voice .

Last night Trump blew his last, best chance to save his campaign—from himself.
This debate still mattered. Although Trump is wheezing uphill, a path to victory still exists: most likely, harvesting the combined 64 electoral votes of Florida, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina.
In each of those states Trump has banked a substantial advantage in new voter registrations. His imperative now is to bring home disaffected Republicans and persuadable independents. Combine that with relentless voter suppression and post-election maneuvers, and Trump might yet have a chance.
Set aside that such a “victory” would do our democracy incalculable damage. That Trump pursues it so openly underscores his central dilemma: He cannot help flaunting his own repellent pathology.
Last night’s debate was made even more critical for Trump by Trump himself: Ever the petulant fool, he ducked out of a scheduled second debate after it became virtual—because, in his carelessness for others, he had contracted COVID-19. Worse, he filled the time slot with a one–man town hall which he swiftly converted into an orgy of indecent self-exposure.
Asked by moderator Savannah Guthrie to disavow QAnon—the lunatic group which believes that Democrats are spearheading a satanic ring of cannibalistic pedophiles—Trump claimed he knows “nothing about QAnon” or “very little,” but praised their devotion to protecting children. (In August, remember, he also noted that “they like me very much.”) When Trump refused to disown his retweeting of the insane assertion that Barack Obama killed SEAL Team Six to cover up the fake death of bin Laden, Guthrie protested in lacerating wonder: “You’re the president. You’re not like someone’s crazy uncle who can just retweet whatever!”
But he is, and so he does, quite relentlessly, “whatever”—starting with serving as his own politically demented campaign manager. Bemoans veteran GOP poster Frank Luntz: “It is the worst campaign I’ve ever seen and I’ve been watching them since 1980. They’re on the wrong issues. They’re on the wrong message. They’ve got their heads up their asses.”
Podcast · August 15 2023 A.B. Stoddard: All the Ex-President’s Conspirators Donald Trump has been a low-rent mobster for his entire career, and now he’s getting…
Instead of modulating his pitch to reach undecided voters, Trump seeks out shills like Sean Hannity to serve as his media comfort animals. Impervious to advice, he slights running on his only residual strength—his perceived economic stewardship—in favor of recycled recitations of feuds, resentments, and personal grievances of interest to no one save the most insular members of his base.
In a call scheduled to energize thousands of campaign workers, Trump raised their spirits by labeling Anthony Fauci a “disaster,” claiming that the media was filled with “sick people,” asserting that Joe Biden should “be in jail,” and revealing that Americans are sick of hearing about a deadly pandemic which is resurging on his watch. His rallies for the faithful—conducted without regard for public health protocols—have become a numbingly familiar litany of preposterous venom: Biden is a “socialist”; Kamala Harris “a communist”; and the government riddled with obscure deep-state actors whose singular mission is to persecute Trump.
Meanwhile, the number of daily new cases of COVID has jumped 33 percent in the last two weeks—including surges in politically pivotal states like Wisconsin and Iowa. After 10 months, Trump still has no coherent plan to control the spread of the disease—preferring, despite the rising toll of death, to claim that America is “rounding the corner” and speeding toward a “cure” which does not exist. After all, he told his campaign workers, “People are tired of hearing Fauci and all these idiots.”
Blame the media, he told rallygoers in Arizona: “You turn on CNN, that’s all they cover: COVID, COVID pandemic, COVID, COVID, COVID. You know why? They’re trying to talk everybody out of voting. People aren’t buying it, CNN. You dumb bastards.” But not as dumb, apparently, as the 220,000 Americans who died instead of rounding the corner.
Trump’s coronavirus task force has degenerated into a fractious and anti-scientific netherworld. The protagonist of this disarray, Dr. Scott Atlas, is a professionally unqualified catspaw for Trump who embraces the dangerous theory of herd immunity, denigrates the use of masks, and views testing for younger people as superfluous—as if the young don’t infect the older and more vulnerable. Little wonder that, as the Washington Post reports, the genuine experts stuck with Atlas despise him.
But Atlas also serves to encourage Trump’s opposition to money for testing as part of a second stimulus package, and to inspire his dismissive remark to Guthrie that “I’ve heard many different stories on masks.” When Guthrie responded that government health officials uniformly advocate their use, Trump countered by citing “Scott Adkins.” To Guthrie’s rejoinder that Atlas “is not an infectious disease expert,” Trump replied: “He’s one of the great experts of the world”—meaning, one must assume, that special world of Trump’s own.
This would be farcical were it not so deadly. Last Sunday on Meet the Press, Dr. Michael Osterholm warned that “the next 6 to 12 weeks are going to be the darkest of the entire pandemic.” While Trump may not know or care, a critical mass of the electorate does.
Unsurprisingly, a fresh New York Times/Siena College poll shows that voters are focused on stemming the pandemic and rescuing a stymied economy with more stimulus spending. Critically, Biden leads Trump by 12 points as the leader best suited to cope with the coronavirus. As a corollary, Biden is catching up on the question of economic stewardship.
But instead of addressing Americans concerned with a virus which is threatening their health while transforming every aspect of life, Trump views himself as its principal victim. No doubt that is why he blew off another chance to speak to the public at large—storming out of a taping for 60 Minutes because Leslie Stahl was asking too many questions about COVID-19.
But the political landscape depicted by the Times/Siena poll offers Trump little refuge. He is losing support among his base voters, non-college-educated whites. On issue upon issue, respondents favor Biden: maintaining law and order; uniting the country; selecting Supreme Court justices; and, critically, providing healthcare. At a time when more voters than not expect the pandemic to worsen, a Kaiser Family Foundation poll showed that 79 percent of Americans want to preserve protections for people with pre-existing conditions, and that a solid majority oppose abrogating Obamacare.
Even immigration, once Trump’s signature issue, is losing force. According to Gallup, more Americans than ever before are now inclined to believe that immigrants enrich the country, and to sympathize with refugees from hardship and oppression. An appalling report from NBC News underscores why: Lawyers appointed by a federal judge to identify separated migrant families have not yet found the parents of 545 children—two-thirds of whom were deported to Central America without their kids.
The issue of greatest potential adversity for Biden is expanding the Supreme Court—the Times/Siena poll found that 58 percent of voters are opposed, and only 31 percent are supportive. But Biden has taken no position, and he’s too savvy to validate Trump’s attacks by unequivocally embracing court packing. Instead, he told 60 Minutes that he would create a bipartisan commission to study the issue of Supreme Court reform and make recommendations within 180 days after he becomes president—neatly defanging the question.
So what is the issue which Trump imagines will rally Americans to his side? The perfidy of Hunter Biden.
The kernel from which this notion springs is a report in the New York Post—planted by that unimpeachable source and Borat bit player Rudy Giuliani—so dubious that the reporters directed to write it removed their byline. The essence is that Biden’s surviving son supposedly brokered a meeting between his father and a shady Ukrainian gas company. Biden’s campaign denies such a meeting occurred, and the FBI is investigating whether the report originated with a disinformation campaign run by Russian intelligence.
Unruffled, Trump fulminated on Fox & Friends that Attorney General William Barr must immediately investigate Biden and his son because “this is major corruption, and we have to know about this before the election.” So much for the rule of law.
But the purely political problem with Trump’s obsession is identified by the GOP’s Frank Luntz: “Hunter Biden does not help put food on the table. Hunter Biden does not help anyone get a job. Hunter Biden does not provide health care or solve COVID. And Donald Trump spends all of his time focused on that and nobody cares.”
Even more than the pandemic, that besetting pathology—Trump’s crippling inability to distinguish the needs of others from his own—has become has become the defining issue of this campaign. Americans may be sickened by COVID, but they are sick of Donald Trump.
Even a few Republicans are shaking off their party’s Stockholm syndrome. As Ben Sasse asked rhetorically in a phone call with constituents: “What the heck were any of us thinking that selling a TV-obsessed narcissistic individual to the American people was a good idea?”
But despite the strangled angst of Republicans teetering on the electoral abyss, true to his narcissism Trump sees the campaign solely as a mirror of self. As a Republican strategist told the New York Times: “The president appears to have doubled down on a base election strategy, while Republicans down ballot must figure out a way to appeal to independent voters in states like North Carolina and Maine and Michigan.” No doubt they envy the Democrats, who managed to select a presidential candidate who is not only adequately socialized, but sane.
That man, Joe Biden, conducted a parallel town hall last week with significantly more viewers than Trump’s—a largely serene ninety minutes during which he showed a detailed command of public policy. But the heart of his message is a pledge to heal a country riven by Trump’s corrosive instability.
To that end, he has crafted a progressive program which strikes a balance within his own party while appealing to persuadable voters at large. Equally important is the unifying spirit of his symbolically situated speech at Gettysburg: “We are facing too many crises, we have too much work to do, we have too bright a future to have it shipwrecked on the shoals of anger and hate and division.”
In contrast, Trump is banking on anger, hate and division to pull him out. But though the polls are tightening a bit, as anticipated, Biden continues to lead in the universally acknowledged battleground states: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Florida, and Arizona.
Thus in Thursday night’s debate, Trump needed to seriously discredit Biden as a prospective president, while—somehow—making himself more attractive to the dwindling supply of persuadable voters. Even a candidate less denuded of self-awareness would find that dual mission challenging.
Perhaps mercifully for a man so unequipped to calibrate his own behaviors, the self-destructive hectoring which marked Trump’s first debate was minimized by a new rule muting microphones, enabling both candidates to speak for two minutes a subject without interruption. That left Trump to hope that Biden, unassisted, would become sufficiently incoherent to discredit himself.
But Trump has no sustained message of his own, and conjuring a more substantive and empathic persona is way beyond his capacity—even before the debate, he was lashing out at moderator Kristen Welker as “totally partisan.” Other than playing the victim and working the referee, his plans for seizing the popular imagination in these dispiriting times focused on—yes, Hunter Biden.
Biden needed only to keep his cool, and display sufficient command of substance and self to personify leadership. His singular advantage was that Trump came dragging the millstone of his own presidency—and the public weariness with Trump the man. Somehow, some way, he had to persuade voters that four more years of this was safer than trusting Joe Biden to lead us forward.
That proved beyond Trump’s capacity.
In an odd way, the debate occurred on two levels. The first was a superficially standard political contest. Order was maintained. Voices were modulated. Words turned into sentences. Subjects were addressed.
This owed much to the evening’s lynchpin, Welker, and the blessed interposition of the mute function. Under Welker’s firm guidance, for much of the time Trump resembled a normal human being who, if anything, seemed a bit more hale than his rival—a remarkable testament to the world-class care lavished on him when he contracted COVID-19.
But the second level involved substance. An extremely low-information voter, unfamiliar with the issues, might have considered it an even match, and Trump the more forceful contestant. But at the heart of his performance was a void: of achievement; of knowledge; of proposals for the future; and, in several cases, of fundamental humanity. Instead Trump consumed a great deal of airtime with lies, evasions, and weapons-grade exaggerations, most conspicuously about the coronavirus and the supposed corruption of Joe and Hunter Biden.
Not only did we learn, yet again, that America was “rounding the corner” in its fight with the coronavirus, but that foreign leaders expressed amazement at his proactive leadership—without which, he asserted, over 2 million Americans would have died. About the roughly 223,000 who have died, Trump expressed little sadness. After all, we were “learning to live” with the virus—to which Biden mordantly responded that we’re “learning to die with it.”
To Biden’s indictment of his derelictions, Trump had little to say. Biden crisply recited his plan to restore public health and the economy. Trump had no plan save for an as-yet undeveloped vaccine and a nonexistent “cure.”
But this typified Trump’s performance throughout. On healthcare, he promised that in some happy future he would come up with a “beautiful” plan, then falsely accused Biden of wanting to abolish private insurance and establish “socialized medicine.” Again, Biden calmly laid out his actual proposal.
Prodded about climate change, Trump excoriated the Paris climate accord and claimed that Biden wanted to abolish fracking but, yet again, offered nothing of his own. Biden corrected the record—he does not want to abolish fracking—and described his vision of transitioning to a green economy while creating millions of new jobs.
As to child separation and the 545 children in federal custody whose parents cannot be found, Trump falsely insinuated that the Obama administration had initiated the policy. Biden fiercely (and correctly) denied this and said the policy “violates every notion of who we are as a nation.” Further, he described his own immigration plan: a path to citizenship for Dreamers and undocumented immigrants. About that, too, Trump offered nothing save to complain about “catch and release” on Obama’s watch.
Indeed, Trump expressed no sympathy for traumatized children deprived of parents, or Dreamers facing deportation for no fault of their own—which would be the reflex of any politician with a dollop of humanity, or even the ability to fake it. But this was one of several occasions where Trump confirmed that this part of him is simply missing.
When Welker asked both men to address the fears of black parents compelled to coach their kids on how to behave when stopped by police, Trump simply could not do it—he did not even try. And when she raised the issue of families whose health is endangered by their proximity to petroleum refineries, Trump said only that refinery workers were well paid.
Trump was—no surprise—much more voluble when smearing Biden and his son. Repeatedly, and with no basis whatsoever, he claimed that Joe Biden had taken money from various foreign governments. Attacking Hunter Biden with more gusto than clarity, Trump descended into the murk of Fox News conspiracy theories more confusing than galvanizing for anyone not a cognoscente.
In both cases, Biden denied the charges with appropriate brevity and scorn. Finally, he spoke directly to the national audience: “It’s not about his family and my family. It’s about your family.” Reprising this moment toward the end of the debate, Biden again looked into the camera. “You know who he is,” he said of Trump. “You know his character. You know my character. You know our reputations for honor and telling the truth.”
Those were Biden’s strongest moments. His worst, perhaps, came during a discussion of energy policy in the debate’s closing moments.
“Would you close down the oil industry?” Trump asked him. “I would have a transition from the oil industry, yes,” Biden answered. “Because the oil industry pollutes, significantly. . . . Because it has to be replaced by renewable energy.”
When Biden tried to clarify that the transition would occur “over time,” Trump cut in, crowing: “Basically, what he is saying is he’s going to destroy the oil industry. Will you remember that, Texas? Will you remember that, Pennsylvania, Oklahoma?”
Biden’s phrasing was inartful, so perhaps some voters will. But, for most, it seems unlikely to make a difference.
For Trump to seem modulated, while novel, was not enough. He needed to deliver a knockout blow—turning Biden supporters into Trump voters. Nothing he did in this moderately interesting evening seemed close to that, and now he has nothing left but rallies and the sound of his own voice.
Election Day is coming swiftly.