The Day After

If we could first know where we are , and whither we are tending , we could then better judge what to do , and how to do it .
Where the hell are we ?
Not somewhere great .
It could be worse .
But it could be a lot better .
Let me try to suggest briefly some of what ’ s good , bad , and ugly at this moment—the day after Election Day and part way through Election Week .
Joe Biden will probably be our next president .
It looks likely that Joe Biden will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ do so in a way that will be hard for Donald Trump to dispute and in a way that will be reasonably clear by the end of this week .
If his margin holds in Nevada , which looks probable and which we should know tomorrow , he ’ ll have 270 electoral votes ( with Nevada , Wisconsin , Michigan , and Nebraska ’ s second congressional district , along with the states called for him earlier ) .
Biden could also end up winning Pennsylvania and/or Georgia , but you can @ @ @ @ @ @ @ way or the other right now .
It also looks—for now—as thought Donald Trump ’ s mind-bogglingly irresponsible statements last night may not have too much effect , that a fair number of Republicans will decide to ignore him and move on , and that the nightmare scenarios of mass violence and/or the courts overturning the voters ’ decision won ’ t come to pass .
None of those eventualities are out of the question , I hasten to add—but it looks less likely than one might have worried in these circumstances .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ join now in saying : Let the votes be counted .
No violence , no demagoguery , no delegitimizing lawful election processes .
The bad news is that the election results are likely to leave both parties in worse shape , from the point of view of those of us who ’ d like some fresh thinking of a non-Trumpy , non-Bernie variety .
Republicans look to have held the Senate , with a net loss of one or two seats , and to have picked up seats in the House .
So @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be : Stay the course , but without the wackier personal characteristics of Donald Trump .
The receptivity among the Republican establishment to a fundamental re-thinking will be limited .
The receptivity to a fundamental repudiation of Trump or Trumpism is , in the short term , minimal .
The chances of Mitch McConnell working responsibly with a President Biden are not great , given the likely attitudes of most of his members and of Republican voters .
The Republican party will be geared entirely toward holding the Senate and winning the House @ @ @ @ @ @ @ viewed as meaning that Republicans must fight and weaken Biden at every turn .
The Biden administration and Speaker Pelosi—assuming she ’ s re-elected speaker—will meanwhile be under pressure from their left , with bitter second-guessing of Biden and Pelosi ’ s moderate strategies for victory .
The narrowness of Biden ’ s victory will probably weaken his ability to get the party behind him , and may constrain his ability to do much that goes against party orthodoxy .
If one wanted to be optimistic , you could hope that Biden , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ one-term president , might throw caution to the winds in an interesting , national-unity-focused way .
But there have not been a great many reasons for optimism in American politics lately .
In 2016 , 46 percent of the American people voted for Donald Trump .
They were willing to take a gamble on an outsider , a businessman , a celebrity , against an unpopular Hillary Clinton .
They could also tell themselves there would be constraints on his behavior , from his own party , and from Congress .
Now , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ govern with results that are , I think , pretty horrifying , and faced with the choice of giving him a second term—in which he would assuredly be less constrained—the American people rewarded President Trump with an increased share of the overall vote .
Having seen him in office , almost half the country wanted to give him four more years .
I don ’ t see any way to gild this lily .
To some very real degree , as Pogo famously said , “ We have met the enemy and he @ @ @ @

If we could first know where we are, and whither we are tending, we could then better judge what to do, and how to do it.
—Abraham Lincoln, June 16, 1858
Where the hell are we?
Not somewhere great. It could be worse. But it could be a lot better. Let me try to suggest briefly some of what’s good, bad, and ugly at this moment—the day after Election Day and part way through Election Week.
The Good: The Presidency
Joe Biden will probably be our next president.
It looks likely that Joe Biden will win, and that he’ll do so in a way that will be hard for Donald Trump to dispute and in a way that will be reasonably clear by the end of this week. If his margin holds in Nevada, which looks probable and which we should know tomorrow, he’ll have 270 electoral votes (with Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Nebraska’s second congressional district, along with the states called for him earlier). Biden could also end up winning Pennsylvania and/or Georgia, but you can’t count either of them one way or the other right now.
It also looks—for now—as thought Donald Trump’s mind-bogglingly irresponsible statements last night may not have too much effect, that a fair number of Republicans will decide to ignore him and move on, and that the nightmare scenarios of mass violence and/or the courts overturning the voters’ decision won’t come to pass.
None of those eventualities are out of the question, I hasten to add—but it looks less likely than one might have worried in these circumstances.
Still, every responsible voice needs to join now in saying: Let the votes be counted. No violence, no demagoguery, no delegitimizing lawful election processes.
The Bad: The Parties
The bad news is that the election results are likely to leave both parties in worse shape, from the point of view of those of us who’d like some fresh thinking of a non-Trumpy, non-Bernie variety.
Republicans look to have held the Senate, with a net loss of one or two seats, and to have picked up seats in the House. So the GOP takeaway from this election will be: Stay the course, but without the wackier personal characteristics of Donald Trump.
The receptivity among the Republican establishment to a fundamental re-thinking will be limited. The receptivity to a fundamental repudiation of Trump or Trumpism is, in the short term, minimal. The chances of Mitch McConnell working responsibly with a President Biden are not great, given the likely attitudes of most of his members and of Republican voters.
The Republican party will be geared entirely toward holding the Senate and winning the House in 2022, and that will be viewed as meaning that Republicans must fight and weaken Biden at every turn.
The Biden administration and Speaker Pelosi—assuming she’s re-elected speaker—will meanwhile be under pressure from their left, with bitter second-guessing of Biden and Pelosi’s moderate strategies for victory. The narrowness of Biden’s victory will probably weaken his ability to get the party behind him, and may constrain his ability to do much that goes against party orthodoxy.
If one wanted to be optimistic, you could hope that Biden, sensing that he’s likely a one-term president, might throw caution to the winds in an interesting, national-unity-focused way.
But there have not been a great many reasons for optimism in American politics lately.
The Ugly: Us
In 2016, 46 percent of the American people voted for Donald Trump. They were willing to take a gamble on an outsider, a businessman, a celebrity, against an unpopular Hillary Clinton. They could also tell themselves there would be constraints on his behavior, from his own party, and from Congress.
Now, after four years of seeing Donald Trump govern with results that are, I think, pretty horrifying, and faced with the choice of giving him a second term—in which he would assuredly be less constrained—the American people rewarded President Trump with an increased share of the overall vote. Having seen him in office, almost half the country wanted to give him four more years.
I don’t see any way to gild this lily.
To some very real degree, as Pogo famously said, “We have met the enemy and he is us.”


thebulwark--2020-11-04--The State of the Nation

The State of the Nation

Shortly after 2:20 a.m. on November 4 , the president of the United States declared victory .
He said , “ Frankly , we did win this election.
” The president also said that the current process—in which votes are being counted across the country—is fraudulent .
“ This is a fraud on the American public , ” the president said .
And then the president declared that he intended to stop unnamed forces from “ disenfranchising ” his supporters .
“ We ’ ll be going to the Supreme Court , ” Trump said .
And then he said @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to stop.
” This is an attempt to bring authoritarianism—real , genuine authoritarianism—to America .
It is not mere irresponsibility .
It is dangerous .
And here is what should scare you just as much as the specter of the president holding yet another campaign rally inside the White House , in flagrant violation of the Hatch Act : Trump might still win through legitimate means .
Probably not—the actual vote counting suggests that Joe Biden is on track to surpass 270 Electoral votes .
But nothing is certain .
It is one @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the yoke of authoritarianism because it is forced .
It is another thing to choose it freely .
And in this moment , Donald Trump—the same man openly calling for the stealing of an election—will have received more votes than any Republican to ever run for president .
He will have—despite the quarter of a million dead , despite the racism , despite the debates , despite the unemployment—almost certainly have increased his vote share from 2016 .
This—the authoritarian strongman—is what the American people want .
Not all of the people .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
But a large enough percentage to put our country at risk of Orbánism .
Nearly half of America chose this .
Not once , but twice .
For the last four years , the sophisticates and the climbers on the right have waved away the notion that Donald Trump was a danger to the liberal order .
He was too clownish to be dangerous , they said .
Today , there will be sophisticates and climbers who try to wave away Trump ’ s words .
It doesn ’ t matter if @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , they ’ ll say .
His saying so doesn ’ t make it true .
It ’ s “ regrettable.
” It ’ s “ distressing.
” It might even be “ irresponsible.
” But , you know , no need to get hysterical .
The commander-in-chief has claimed victory in an election .
He claims that “ fraud ” is being committed and that American citizens are being “ disenfranchised.
” These remarks—all by themselves—should disqualify him from holding the office .
If we are lucky then this will only serve @ @ @ @ @ @ @ percent of the country—regard the outcome of this election not as merely rhetorically or morally , but literally , illegitimate .
And if we are not lucky ?
You saw what happened in Lafayette Square .
You saw how eagerly the president and his party floated the idea of invoking the Insurrection Act .
You ’ ve seen how democracies have failed across the world over the last two decades .
We are standing on the cusp , right now .
And we will remain there for the foreseeable future .
Even if @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is sworn in as president .
Because this is what a very large share of our fellow citizens want .

Shortly after 2:20 a.m. on November 4, the president of the United States declared victory. He said, “Frankly, we did win this election.”
The president also said that the current process—in which votes are being counted across the country—is fraudulent. “This is a fraud on the American public,” the president said.
And then the president declared that he intended to stop unnamed forces from “disenfranchising” his supporters. “We’ll be going to the Supreme Court,” Trump said. And then he said, “We want all the voting to stop.”
This is an attempt to bring authoritarianism—real, genuine authoritarianism—to America. It is not mere irresponsibility. It is dangerous.
And here is what should scare you just as much as the specter of the president holding yet another campaign rally inside the White House, in flagrant violation of the Hatch Act:
Trump might still win through legitimate means. Probably not—the actual vote counting suggests that Joe Biden is on track to surpass 270 Electoral votes. But nothing is certain.
It is one thing for a country to fall under the yoke of authoritarianism because it is forced. It is another thing to choose it freely.
And in this moment, Donald Trump—the same man openly calling for the stealing of an election—will have received more votes than any Republican to ever run for president.
He will have—despite the quarter of a million dead, despite the racism, despite the debates, despite the unemployment—almost certainly have increased his vote share from 2016.
This—the authoritarian strongman—is what the American people want. Not all of the people. Not quite a majority of the people. But a large enough percentage to put our country at risk of Orbánism.
Nearly half of America chose this. Not once, but twice.
Podcast · August 15 2023 A.B. Stoddard: All the Ex-President’s Conspirators Donald Trump has been a low-rent mobster for his entire career, and now he’s getting…
For the last four years, the sophisticates and the climbers on the right have waved away the notion that Donald Trump was a danger to the liberal order. He was too clownish to be dangerous, they said.
Today, there will be sophisticates and climbers who try to wave away Trump’s words. It doesn’t matter if the president claims to have won Pennsylvania, they’ll say. His saying so doesn’t make it true. It’s “regrettable.” It’s “distressing.” It might even be “irresponsible.” But, you know, no need to get hysterical.
They are wrong.
The commander-in-chief has claimed victory in an election. He claims that “fraud” is being committed and that American citizens are being “disenfranchised.” These remarks—all by themselves—should disqualify him from holding the office.
If we are lucky then this will only serve to make his supporters—again, some 45 percent of the country—regard the outcome of this election not as merely rhetorically or morally, but literally, illegitimate.
And if we are not lucky? You saw what happened in Lafayette Square. You saw how eagerly the president and his party floated the idea of invoking the Insurrection Act. You’ve seen how democracies have failed across the world over the last two decades.
We are standing on the cusp, right now. And we will remain there for the foreseeable future. Even if Joe Biden eventually wins the election and is sworn in as president.
Because this is what a very large share of our fellow citizens want.
Good night, America. And good luck.


thebulwark--2020-11-04--Will the American Fever at Last Break?

Will the American Fever at Last Break?

When a fever breaks , the human body must adjust to its own recovery .
It breaks into a sweat until , gradually , the temperature lowers and the sufferer feels the dawn of normality .
So it will work , we can only hope , with America ’ s body politic .
But such a recovery now hangs in the balance .
Our collective symptomatology is multifarious—and severe .
We are gripped by a deadly and resurgent pandemic ; mired in an economic crisis which eviscerates expectations ; afflicted by a distrust and division which turns our political organism @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that we retain the capacity to conduct a democratic election and facilitate a peaceful transition of power .
All these ills have permeated our tremulous choice of which man should lead us .
Yet something even more remarkable and terrible has happened , a last corruption of our societal antibodies : The ultimate issue in this election has become the toxic inner landscape of America ’ s president .
Trump ’ s campaign is , in the end , not about issues or even about us—in his implacable solipsism , he has made @ @ @ @ @ @ @ resentments , and sheer hatred of anyone or anything which intrudes on the alternate reality in which he struts the stage alone .
We are but props in his psychodrama of self .
So meaningless to Trump is democracy that he is openly scheming to discard ballots , preempt election returns , and convert the Supreme Court into ward heelers in robes who exist to help him steal the presidency .
This transcends incipient autocracy—it is one man ’ s mental pathology imposed on a constitutional order which , to him , is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ suffering wrought by COVID-19 .
But character is , indeed , fate .
So there is something both Shakespearean and viscerally elegant about the redemptive turn of history ’ s wheel : The man poised to depose Trump—if only he can—is Joe Biden .
For so long this seemed so unlikely as to be unthinkable .
The younger Biden ’ s flaws were well-known : He was garrulous , insecure , ideologically unmoored .
He had run two utterly failed presidential campaigns , 20 years apart , only to be plucked from the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ career by an African-American presidential nominee in search of an experienced hand who had outlived his ambitions .
And Biden ’ s seeming last chance—in 2016—was undone by the death of a son and the collective judgment of party grandees that Hillary Clinton was better suited to win .
Perhaps it was this contrast that helped us perceive the fineness which existed alongside Joe Biden ’ s faults .
He cared deeply about people—their concerns , their hopes , their pain were real to him .
He had the wisdom to grow .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ : the institutions of constitutional democracy , and the decency and self-restraint essential to their preservation .
In his origins and manner , he personified ordinary America , but armed with an extraordinary resilience which enabled him to endure the death of those he loved and to nurture those who survived .
He was more than the antithesis of Donald Trump : Tempered by time , he inspired the trust essential to restoring societal wellness .
Most remarkable , perhaps , deep into his seventies he proved himself as never before .
During @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from near oblivion to unify his party .
Under the extraordinary circumstances of the pandemic , he ran a near-flawless general election campaign , making history by choosing a woman of color as his running mate .
He overrode the endless condescension—he was too old ; too shaky ; too fragile in debate ; too flawed in judgment .
It was Trump , not Biden , who cracked under pressure .
So here he was as the first returns came in , favored to win , yet suspended like millions of others between @ @ @ @ @ @ @ recollection of the awful astonishment of November 8 , 2016 .
Anyone desperate for relief from Trump was hoping for an overnight cure : victories in two battleground states on the razor ’ s edge , Florida and North Carolina , and even red states where polls held out hope .
But within hours North Carolina slipped away , and Florida justified the eleventh-hour misgivings of Democratic professionals who saw Cuban-Americans shunning Biden in prohibitive numbers .
And those bright shiny objects like Texas and Ohio turned out to be fool ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for Georgia .
The returns suggested that suburban voters , particularly women , were abandoning the GOP .
While this did not augur the massive rejection of Trump that Democrats longed for , it suggested a socioeconomic shift which could prove electorally crucial in the agonizing days to come .
Biden ’ s first apparent breakthrough victory of the night came in Arizona .
His wins as of midnight otherwise replicated the path Hillary Clinton had taken to 232 votes .
Add Arizona and Biden reaches 243 .
That hardly seems decisive .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the second district of Nebraska , with its one electoral vote , and Pennsylvania could become mathematically irrelevant .
Michigan ’ s 16 votes , combined with Wisconsin ’ s 10 , would give Biden precisely 270 votes .
Slow election-day returns from Democratic-leaning counties and the later tabulation of mail-in ballots in Wisconsin and Michigan suggests that Biden may yet win in those states , as the polls predicted .
But the results may remain undecided until Wednesday—or even later in the week .
In remarks delivered at 2:21 a.m. , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ go to the Supreme Court to cut off the counting of ballots—presumably in the Rust Belt states , where he leads in the incomplete early counts .
There is absolutely no legal basis for doing so , and for the Court to intrude would eviscerate its own legitimacy .
And with luck , if Biden wins in Arizona , Michigan and Wisconsin will preempt Trump ’ s plan to exploit legal disputes over mail-in ballots in Pennsylvania by asking the Supreme Court to decide the election .
As of this writing , there @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fever will at last abate—because the agent of illness would be expelled from our body politic .
But the cure , like the disease , will come at a cost .

When a fever breaks, the human body must adjust to its own recovery. It breaks into a sweat until, gradually, the temperature lowers and the sufferer feels the dawn of normality. So it will work, we can only hope, with America’s body politic.
But such a recovery now hangs in the balance. Our collective symptomatology is multifarious—and severe. We are gripped by a deadly and resurgent pandemic; mired in an economic crisis which eviscerates expectations; afflicted by a distrust and division which turns our political organism on itself; uncertain, even, that we retain the capacity to conduct a democratic election and facilitate a peaceful transition of power. All these ills have permeated our tremulous choice of which man should lead us.
Yet something even more remarkable and terrible has happened, a last corruption of our societal antibodies: The ultimate issue in this election has become the toxic inner landscape of America’s president. Trump’s campaign is, in the end, not about issues or even about us—in his implacable solipsism, he has made our national reckoning about his grievances, resentments, and sheer hatred of anyone or anything which intrudes on the alternate reality in which he struts the stage alone. We are but props in his psychodrama of self.
Podcast · August 15 2023 A.B. Stoddard: All the Ex-President’s Conspirators Donald Trump has been a low-rent mobster for his entire career, and now he’s getting…
So meaningless to Trump is democracy that he is openly scheming to discard ballots, preempt election returns, and convert the Supreme Court into ward heelers in robes who exist to help him steal the presidency. This transcends incipient autocracy—it is one man’s mental pathology imposed on a constitutional order which, to him, is no more real than the death and suffering wrought by COVID-19.
But character is, indeed, fate. So there is something both Shakespearean and viscerally elegant about the redemptive turn of history’s wheel: The man poised to depose Trump—if only he can—is Joe Biden.
For so long this seemed so unlikely as to be unthinkable. The younger Biden’s flaws were well-known: He was garrulous, insecure, ideologically unmoored. He had run two utterly failed presidential campaigns, 20 years apart, only to be plucked from the Senate near the presumptive end of his career by an African-American presidential nominee in search of an experienced hand who had outlived his ambitions. And Biden’s seeming last chance—in 2016—was undone by the death of a son and the collective judgment of party grandees that Hillary Clinton was better suited to win.
Instead Donald Trump became president.
Perhaps it was this contrast that helped us perceive the fineness which existed alongside Joe Biden’s faults. He cared deeply about people—their concerns, their hopes, their pain were real to him. He had the wisdom to grow. He believed in an idea beyond self: the institutions of constitutional democracy, and the decency and self-restraint essential to their preservation. In his origins and manner, he personified ordinary America, but armed with an extraordinary resilience which enabled him to endure the death of those he loved and to nurture those who survived.
He was more than the antithesis of Donald Trump: Tempered by time, he inspired the trust essential to restoring societal wellness.
Most remarkable, perhaps, deep into his seventies he proved himself as never before. During the primary season, he came back from near oblivion to unify his party. Under the extraordinary circumstances of the pandemic, he ran a near-flawless general election campaign, making history by choosing a woman of color as his running mate. He overrode the endless condescension—he was too old; too shaky; too fragile in debate; too flawed in judgment. It was Trump, not Biden, who cracked under pressure.
So here he was as the first returns came in, favored to win, yet suspended like millions of others between hope and a doubt deepened by the recollection of the awful astonishment of November 8, 2016.
Anyone desperate for relief from Trump was hoping for an overnight cure: victories in two battleground states on the razor’s edge, Florida and North Carolina, and even red states where polls held out hope. But within hours North Carolina slipped away, and Florida justified the eleventh-hour misgivings of Democratic professionals who saw Cuban-Americans shunning Biden in prohibitive numbers. And those bright shiny objects like Texas and Ohio turned out to be fool’s gold, leaving behind only lingering hopes for Georgia.
The returns suggested that suburban voters, particularly women, were abandoning the GOP. While this did not augur the massive rejection of Trump that Democrats longed for, it suggested a socioeconomic shift which could prove electorally crucial in the agonizing days to come.
Biden’s first apparent breakthrough victory of the night came in Arizona. His wins as of midnight otherwise replicated the path Hillary Clinton had taken to 232 votes. Add Arizona and Biden reaches 243. That hardly seems decisive. But then add Biden’s victory in the second district of Nebraska, with its one electoral vote, and Pennsylvania could become mathematically irrelevant. Michigan’s 16 votes, combined with Wisconsin’s 10, would give Biden precisely 270 votes.
Slow election-day returns from Democratic-leaning counties and the later tabulation of mail-in ballots in Wisconsin and Michigan suggests that Biden may yet win in those states, as the polls predicted. But the results may remain undecided until Wednesday—or even later in the week.
In remarks delivered at 2:21 a.m., the president declared victory and threatened to go to the Supreme Court to cut off the counting of ballots—presumably in the Rust Belt states, where he leads in the incomplete early counts. There is absolutely no legal basis for doing so, and for the Court to intrude would eviscerate its own legitimacy. And with luck, if Biden wins in Arizona, Michigan and Wisconsin will preempt Trump’s plan to exploit legal disputes over mail-in ballots in Pennsylvania by asking the Supreme Court to decide the election.
As of this writing, there still remains the hope that our national fever will at last abate—because the agent of illness would be expelled from our body politic. But the cure, like the disease, will come at a cost.


thebulwark--2020-11-05--Abuses and Lies Till the Bitter End

Abuses and Lies Till the Bitter End

President Donald J. Trump had four years to prove to America how “ presidential ” he could be .
All through his presidency and straight through the end of his re-election campaign , he refused .
Some observers have insisted he was capable of acting differently—that he could be mature and steady .
Those people were essentially method actors who , in service to Trump , mastered the art of playing dumb .
Actually , that ’ s too kind to them .
Their supposed confidence in Trump ’ s fitness for the job was really only a disguise for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tolerate from him .
As of this writing , Trump appears to be on his way to defeat , and he is flailing .
The orderly democratic process of counting ballots is underway , and the nation ’ s chief executive is falsely claiming that the election is being stolen from him and already litigating .
Republican officeholders remain on the sidelines as he stomps all over the election , and his apologists in the conservative movement are spreading bizarre and paranoid conspiracy theories .
If there were ever a time one would @ @ @ @ @ @ @ restrain and guide him , this would be it .
This is the GOP ’ s final and definitive chance to put loyalty to country before loyalty to Trump , to put the public before party and power .
And , still nothing .
When it comes to protecting democracy , the GOP needs a new mascot : the cricket .
All was quiet on the eve of the election , as Trump set up a “ war room ” inside the White House , despite the laws prohibiting the use of taxpayer-funded @ @ @ @ @ @ @ held a watch party on the White House grounds on election night .
Trump campaign staff told reporters there was no expense to taxpayers , which is totally believable if you swallowed that excuse the first time when they turned the White House into a backdrop for the Republican National Convention .
Don ’ t go looking for the officials demanding investigations into Hunter Biden to say anything .
The only time Republicans bothered to stand up for the Hatch Act and anti-nepotism laws is when they gave Ivanka Trump a standing ovation @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at the White House convention .
In the wee hours of the morning on election night , Trump stood in the East Room and falsely declared himself the winner and , without any evidence whatsoever , alleged fraud .
He “ claimed ” the states of Pennsylvania , Georgia , and North Carolina before the outcome was determined there .
He tweeted , “ We are up BIG , but they are trying to STEAL the Election.
” And , of course , Trump ’ s assorted family members , government-paid staffers , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s any major difference between these three categories ) followed his lead on social media—and were promptly slapped with misinformation labels from Twitter like they were low-level workers for Vladimir Putin ’ s troll farm .
( Again , not much difference . )
The Trump campaign is now wishcasting about marching to the Supreme Court so Trump ’ s hand-picked judges can hand him the election .
Lucky for us , the only thing standing between Trump and his Subsequent-made-for-Moviefilm legal victory is his other hand-picked superlawyer , Rudy Giuliani .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ were a dreaded “ worst-case scenario ” for democracy watchers .
What Trump has done in the past couple of days should have surprised no one : He has been signaling for months that he would claim victory , accuse others of breaking the law , and wage a court battle over mail-in ballots .
You ’ ve read some of this in The Bulwark here and here , for instance .
And yet , as all of this was coming into focus , an assorted group of GOP officials and staffers vented @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Trump may not accept the election results , participate in a peaceful transition of power , or take any of the other many abject actions he ’ s been threatening .
Because , as everyone in Washington knows , when you really want to express your truest thoughts , you can ’ t assign your name to it .
Being quoted in a piece like this is basically a “ Post Secret ” version of “ Dear Diary for the Self-Serving Careerist Soul.
” ( See more here . )
What ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ revealing how God-awful these people ’ s mindsets are—is this passage : You might , maybe , could see Republicans “ not agreeing ” with the , cough , cough , highly respected and credible Trump mouthpiece known as Jason Miller .
Feel better now ?
Maybe only if you ’ ve been chugging liquid antacid since Tuesday evening as your election hellscape beverage of choice .
Nothing less than the future of our country and our precious right to vote is at stake and all the GOP masterminds in the Senate can @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with the scummiest of scummy Trump hacks .
That ’ s not even the worst part .
We ’ re 48 hours into Trump actively undermining a presidential election and our democracy and they haven ’ t even executed on that .
Let these final hours of the Trump campaign be our last reminder of how bad the orange man really was .
And how bad they were , too .

President Donald J. Trump had four years to prove to America how “presidential” he could be. All through his presidency and straight through the end of his re-election campaign, he refused.
Some observers have insisted he was capable of acting differently—that he could be mature and steady. Those people were essentially method actors who, in service to Trump, mastered the art of playing dumb. Actually, that’s too kind to them. Their supposed confidence in Trump’s fitness for the job was really only a disguise for the unlimited amount of malfeasance they would tolerate from him.
As of this writing, Trump appears to be on his way to defeat, and he is flailing. The orderly democratic process of counting ballots is underway, and the nation’s chief executive is falsely claiming that the election is being stolen from him and already litigating. Republican officeholders remain on the sidelines as he stomps all over the election, and his apologists in the conservative movement are spreading bizarre and paranoid conspiracy theories. If there were ever a time one would hope that Trump’s party would restrain and guide him, this would be it. This is the GOP’s final and definitive chance to put loyalty to country before loyalty to Trump, to put the public before party and power. And, still nothing.
When it comes to protecting democracy, the GOP needs a new mascot: the cricket.
Podcast · August 15 2023 A.B. Stoddard: All the Ex-President’s Conspirators Donald Trump has been a low-rent mobster for his entire career, and now he’s getting…
All was quiet on the eve of the election, as Trump set up a “war room” inside the White House, despite the laws prohibiting the use of taxpayer-funded resources for campaign purposes. The campaign held a watch party on the White House grounds on election night. Trump campaign staff told reporters there was no expense to taxpayers, which is totally believable if you swallowed that excuse the first time when they turned the White House into a backdrop for the Republican National Convention.
Don’t go looking for the officials demanding investigations into Hunter Biden to say anything. The only time Republicans bothered to stand up for the Hatch Act and anti-nepotism laws is when they gave Ivanka Trump a standing ovation as she nuked them on live television at the White House convention.
In the wee hours of the morning on election night, Trump stood in the East Room and falsely declared himself the winner and, without any evidence whatsoever, alleged fraud. He “claimed” the states of Pennsylvania, Georgia, and North Carolina before the outcome was determined there. He tweeted, “We are up BIG, but they are trying to STEAL the Election.” And, of course, Trump’s assorted family members, government-paid staffers, and campaign members (not that there’s any major difference between these three categories) followed his lead on social media—and were promptly slapped with misinformation labels from Twitter like they were low-level workers for Vladimir Putin’s troll farm. (Again, not much difference.)
The Trump campaign is now wishcasting about marching to the Supreme Court so Trump’s hand-picked judges can hand him the election. Lucky for us, the only thing standing between Trump and his Subsequent-made-for-Moviefilm legal victory is his other hand-picked superlawyer, Rudy Giuliani.
This cringeworthy series of escalating authoritarian events were a dreaded “worst-case scenario” for democracy watchers. What Trump has done in the past couple of days should have surprised no one: He has been signaling for months that he would claim victory, accuse others of breaking the law, and wage a court battle over mail-in ballots. You’ve read some of this in The Bulwark here and here, for instance.
And yet, as all of this was coming into focus, an assorted group of GOP officials and staffers vented to Politico about their private concerns that Trump may not accept the election results, participate in a peaceful transition of power, or take any of the other many abject actions he’s been threatening.
Because, as everyone in Washington knows, when you really want to express your truest thoughts, you can’t assign your name to it. Being quoted in a piece like this is basically a “Post Secret” version of “Dear Diary for the Self-Serving Careerist Soul.” (See more here.)
What’s especially delicious, however—in the sense of revealing how God-awful these people’s mindsets are—is this passage:
When asked if there was a “West-Wing” like contingency plan for Republican leaders if Trump did something radical in the coming days, the senior Senate GOP aide was coy. “I can’t really talk about that,” he said. “It’s not something I can really get into.” But when pressed, he offered the following: “It’s all hypothetical, but if they do what Jason Miller was talking about you’ll see a lot of people”—he paused for a moment—“not agreeing.”
Reflect on that.
You might, maybe, could see Republicans “not agreeing” with the, cough, cough, highly respected and credible Trump mouthpiece known as Jason Miller.
Feel better now? Maybe only if you’ve been chugging liquid antacid since Tuesday evening as your election hellscape beverage of choice.
Nothing less than the future of our country and our precious right to vote is at stake and all the GOP masterminds in the Senate can think to do is ponder a disagreement with the scummiest of scummy Trump hacks.
That’s not even the worst part.
We’re 48 hours into Trump actively undermining a presidential election and our democracy and they haven’t even executed on that.
Let these final hours of the Trump campaign be our last reminder of how bad the orange man really was. And how bad they were, too.


thebulwark--2020-11-06--Trump, the Pathetic Loser

Trump, the Pathetic Loser

On Thursday night , staring down the abyss of defeat , President Trump marched into the White House briefing room and did what he has always done when backed into a corner .
He unfurled lies .
He claimed everything is “ rigged ” against him .
He inflated his accomplishments to vertiginous heights .
All while the votes against him in decisive battleground states ticked higher and higher , a silent metronome in the background relentlessly counting toward his political demise .
While Trump ’ s bluster might have been enthralling in the past—or at least hard to look @ @ @ @ @ @ @ time , the television lights made his typical bronze glow look like mortuary makeup .
He was a political dead man walking .
Everyone knew it .
Even him .
His tone was grave , which only made his lies all the more loathsome .
One would expect a man in his final hours to reveal his innermost , truthful thoughts while in such a terminal state .
Trump , however , delivered the opposite of a deathbed confession .
Feeble and stumbling , he kept pushing the Kool-Aid on anyone who would @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the legal votes , I easily win .
If you count the illegal votes , they can try to steal the election from us , ” he said .
“ It ’ s amazing how those mail-in ballots are so one-sided , ” he said after campaigning for months against mail-in ballot systems .
“ We can ’ t have an election stolen like this , ” he said , without any evidence anything was stolen .
“ As you know , I ’ ve claimed certain states , ” he said—as though @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” on a state entitled him to win in .
It was all loser talk from a cult leader who would rather force the ending of democracy than face the end that is coming .
Either way , President Trump is talking about taking everyone around him down with him .
Because if he really means what he says , and he wants to use all the powers invested in him as president to hunt down supposed “ fraud ” and ensure that he can stay in power , where does that road @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Trump ’ s sycophants and enablers find all their dreams that his presidency would be the most consequential and important in American history crashing down around them .
We should all remember Trump as he presented himself in this monumental moment .
As a babbling , incoherent , conspiracist .
Our greatest presidential embarrassment .

On Thursday night, staring down the abyss of defeat, President Trump marched into the White House briefing room and did what he has always done when backed into a corner. He unfurled lies. He claimed everything is “rigged” against him. He inflated his accomplishments to vertiginous heights.
All while the votes against him in decisive battleground states ticked higher and higher, a silent metronome in the background relentlessly counting toward his political demise.
While Trump’s bluster might have been enthralling in the past—or at least hard to look away from, like a car accident—this time, the television lights made his typical bronze glow look like mortuary makeup. He was a political dead man walking. Everyone knew it. Even him. His tone was grave, which only made his lies all the more loathsome.
Podcast · August 15 2023 A.B. Stoddard: All the Ex-President’s Conspirators Donald Trump has been a low-rent mobster for his entire career, and now he’s getting…
One would expect a man in his final hours to reveal his innermost, truthful thoughts while in such a terminal state. Trump, however, delivered the opposite of a deathbed confession. Feeble and stumbling, he kept pushing the Kool-Aid on anyone who would sip it.
“If you count the legal votes, I easily win. If you count the illegal votes, they can try to steal the election from us,” he said.
“It’s amazing how those mail-in ballots are so one-sided,” he said after campaigning for months against mail-in ballot systems.
“We can’t have an election stolen like this,” he said, without any evidence anything was stolen.
“As you know, I’ve claimed certain states,” he said—as though the act of making a “claim” on a state entitled him to win in.
It was all loser talk from a cult leader who would rather force the ending of democracy than face the end that is coming. Either way, President Trump is talking about taking everyone around him down with him. Because if he really means what he says, and he wants to use all the powers invested in him as president to hunt down supposed “fraud” and ensure that he can stay in power, where does that road lead? Straight toward dictatorship.
Tonight, Trump’s sycophants and enablers find all their dreams that his presidency would be the most consequential and important in American history crashing down around them. We should all remember Trump as he presented himself in this monumental moment. As a babbling, incoherent, conspiracist. Our greatest presidential embarrassment.


thebulwark--2020-11-06--An Embarrassing Presidential Display That Will Live in Infamy

Last night , from a podium in the White House—the People ’ s House , provided to the president , at public expense , as living and working quarters—Donald Trump claimed without evidence that valid votes coming in for his opponent were “ illegal.
” He declared that “ we can ’ t have an election stolen like this.
” He stated that “ we can ’ t allow silence , anybody to silence our voters and manufacture results.
” With these remarks , the president humiliated those who have coddled or appeased him for four years .
And , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ opponent are illegitimate before they ’ ve even been counted , he sunk to a new low for the American presidency .
That , I will admit , is a bold statement .
Because we ’ ve had some low moments in the history of presidential behavior .
John Adams refused to even attend the inauguration of his successor , Thomas Jefferson .
John Tyler , as a former president , was voted into the Confederate States of America ’ s House of Representatives .
James Buchanan , facing Southern states ’ exit @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ neither more nor less than revolution ” and took no action to prevent the slide toward civil war .
Other commanders-in-chief violated norms of presidential action even more dramatically .
Andrew Johnson , the first impeached president , used a rare-for-the-time public speaking tour to praise himself in grandiose terms , trade epithets with crowds , and denounce political opponents—asking rhetorically if his bête noire Thaddeus Stevens should be hanged .
His own party wouldn ’ t even nominate him for another term after that .
Richard Nixon sought to abuse his @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ; he resigned to avoid near certain impeachment and removal .
Bill Clinton lied under oath to a grand jury and faced an impeachment of his own .
But when it comes to actual voting in elections , even previous presidents willing to use dirty tricks during their campaigns haven ’ t resorted to the kind of sordid display that the world witnessed on Thursday night .
Instead , candidates running for the nation ’ s highest office in tumultuous times ( including on the eve of an actual civil war ) have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and then graciously accepted the result and moved on .
Trump , instead , is positioning himself to play the victim , to go down kicking and screaming like a toddler being pulled away from his favorite cartoon .
Shame on him .
Shame on his enablers .
And , yes , shame on us for allowing such an unfit man to occupy the People ’ s House .

Last night, from a podium in the White House—the People’s House, provided to the president, at public expense, as living and working quarters—Donald Trump claimed without evidence that valid votes coming in for his opponent were “illegal.” He declared that “we can’t have an election stolen like this.” He stated that “we can’t allow silence, anybody to silence our voters and manufacture results.”
With these remarks, the president humiliated those who have coddled or appeased him for four years. And, in asserting that votes presumably for his opponent are illegitimate before they’ve even been counted, he sunk to a new low for the American presidency.
That, I will admit, is a bold statement. Because we’ve had some low moments in the history of presidential behavior.
John Adams refused to even attend the inauguration of his successor, Thomas Jefferson. John Tyler, as a former president, was voted into the Confederate States of America’s House of Representatives. James Buchanan, facing Southern states’ exit from the Union, declared secession was “neither more nor less than revolution” and took no action to prevent the slide toward civil war.
Podcast · August 15 2023 A.B. Stoddard: All the Ex-President’s Conspirators Donald Trump has been a low-rent mobster for his entire career, and now he’s getting…
Other commanders-in-chief violated norms of presidential action even more dramatically. Andrew Johnson, the first impeached president, used a rare-for-the-time public speaking tour to praise himself in grandiose terms, trade epithets with crowds, and denounce political opponents—asking rhetorically if his bête noire Thaddeus Stevens should be hanged. His own party wouldn’t even nominate him for another term after that. Richard Nixon sought to abuse his power to cover up the Watergate break-in; he resigned to avoid near certain impeachment and removal. Bill Clinton lied under oath to a grand jury and faced an impeachment of his own.
But when it comes to actual voting in elections, even previous presidents willing to use dirty tricks during their campaigns haven’t resorted to the kind of sordid display that the world witnessed on Thursday night. Instead, candidates running for the nation’s highest office in tumultuous times (including on the eve of an actual civil war) have by and large let the process unfold and then graciously accepted the result and moved on.
Trump, instead, is positioning himself to play the victim, to go down kicking and screaming like a toddler being pulled away from his favorite cartoon.
Shame on him. Shame on his enablers. And, yes, shame on us for allowing such an unfit man to occupy the People’s House.


thebulwark--2020-11-06--The Lies from the Trump White House are Getting Desperate

I was in the White House briefing room on Thursday .
I have covered every president since Ronald Reagan .
I ’ ve occasionally been lied to or misled by every one of them .
But no president ever sought to destroy our Democracy with their lies until Donald Trump .
None ever showed the American people such callous disrespect until Donald Trump walked into the White House briefing room on November 5 , 2020 .
Trump told the nation that mail-in votes were fraudulent .
He had no proof of this .
He said he was leading the race @ @ @ @ @ @ @ wanted to stop counting votes in states where he led and continue counting votes in states where he trailed .
He gave a prepared speech filled with lies that disparaged every volunteer and worker at every precinct in the United States and dismissed how our democracy counts votes—without even appearing to know how it is done .
I watched as press secretary Kayleigh McEnany nodded along in agreement with her boss .
It was disgraceful .
What comes next ?
Having watched this man up close for four years , I do not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ loss .
There might be a phone call to Joe Biden from someone at the Trump campaign .
Maybe Mike Pence will deliver some remarks in lieu of a concession speech .
And if I had to guess , I would be surprised if Trump shows up for the inauguration .
His future is bleak .
He may or may not be indicted .
He ’ s staring at a debt of close to a billion dollars and that won ’ t go away .
Trumpism as a movement is not dead .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ by the Republican party—not to mention the rest of America—going forward .
But we should all understand one important thing : Trump ’ s defeat is a good outcome—an unambiguously good outcome—for America .
Those who expected an easy defeat of Trump underestimated the power of his personality and the problems which drove many to his cause .
It was always going to be a tough fight because the soul of America was at stake and people like Stephen Miller , once they get ahold of power , are always loathe to let @ @ @ @ @ @ @ same .
He called the White House a shit hole when he first moved in , but he has grown to love both the power and its trappings .
The mood in the White House has sunk each day since Fox News called Arizona for Joe Biden .
I watched Kellyanne Conway bolt out of the Palm Room doors leading to the East Room , where the Trump faithful gathered late Tuesday night to celebrate Trump ’ s re-election .
Conway was talking on the phone , trying to deal with the fallout @ @ @ @ @ @ @ everywhere , the Trump people could not believe that he ’ d lost a state full of “ his people.
” By Wednesday morning , the numbed looks on staffers ’ faces made it apparent that Trump was losing more than Arizona .
There were a few souls putting on a brave face , but for most it was slowly sinking in that Trump was staring at the abyss .
He will challenge everything he can in court .
He will get Lindsay Graham to bow and scrape and shill for him .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ megaphone outside of every precinct , whore house , outhouse and chicken house in the country .
But there has been no evidence of widespread voter fraud .
And as Trump now stands metaphorically naked before the American people , fewer will follow the lesser imps who remain .
Donald Trump defiled the office of the presidency and his November 5 remarks should go down as the lowest point for any chief executive at any time in American history .
But he will soon be on his way and the soul of America @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the United States showed that .
The poll workers in precincts across the country showed us the system is sound and people from all political parties and persuasions can work together .
The American soul is strong .
Democracy is messy and working together and treating each other with respect is alive and well .
Poll workers dedicated to the American dream proved that this week .
We only need to excise the malignancy of Donald Trump to encourage people to work together once again .
It will be done because Donald Trump @ @ @ @ @ @ @ away from us last night I asked him why he continued to lie to the American people and why was he so delusional .
He flinched , but didn ’ t answer , and held on to a column as he rounded the corner and disappeared into the bowels of the White House .
It may be the last time I get to ask him a question as president .

I was in the White House briefing room on Thursday.
I was stunned.
I have covered every president since Ronald Reagan. I’ve occasionally been lied to or misled by every one of them.
But no president ever sought to destroy our Democracy with their lies until Donald Trump. None ever showed the American people such callous disrespect until Donald Trump walked into the White House briefing room on November 5, 2020.
Trump told the nation that mail-in votes were fraudulent. He had no proof of this.
He said he was leading the race. He wasn’t.
He wanted to stop counting votes in states where he led and continue counting votes in states where he trailed.
He gave a prepared speech filled with lies that disparaged every volunteer and worker at every precinct in the United States and dismissed how our democracy counts votes—without even appearing to know how it is done.
I watched as press secretary Kayleigh McEnany nodded along in agreement with her boss. It was disgraceful.
Podcast · August 15 2023 A.B. Stoddard: All the Ex-President’s Conspirators Donald Trump has been a low-rent mobster for his entire career, and now he’s getting…
What comes next? Having watched this man up close for four years, I do not believe that Donald Trump will concede his loss. There might be a phone call to Joe Biden from someone at the Trump campaign. Maybe Mike Pence will deliver some remarks in lieu of a concession speech.
And if I had to guess, I would be surprised if Trump shows up for the inauguration.
His future is bleak. He may or may not be indicted. He’s staring at a debt of close to a billion dollars and that won’t go away.
Trumpism as a movement is not dead. And that will have to be addressed by the Republican party—not to mention the rest of America—going forward. But we should all understand one important thing: Trump’s defeat is a good outcome—an unambiguously good outcome—for America.
Those who expected an easy defeat of Trump underestimated the power of his personality and the problems which drove many to his cause.
It was always going to be a tough fight because the soul of America was at stake and people like Stephen Miller, once they get ahold of power, are always loathe to let it go. And Trump is the same. He called the White House a shit hole when he first moved in, but he has grown to love both the power and its trappings.
The mood in the White House has sunk each day since Fox News called Arizona for Joe Biden. I watched Kellyanne Conway bolt out of the Palm Room doors leading to the East Room, where the Trump faithful gathered late Tuesday night to celebrate Trump’s re-election.
Conway was talking on the phone, trying to deal with the fallout of the Arizona results. Like dictators everywhere, the Trump people could not believe that he’d lost a state full of “his people.”
By Wednesday morning, the numbed looks on staffers’ faces made it apparent that Trump was losing more than Arizona. There were a few souls putting on a brave face, but for most it was slowly sinking in that Trump was staring at the abyss.
He will challenge everything he can in court. He will get Lindsay Graham to bow and scrape and shill for him. He will put Corey Lewandowski on a megaphone outside of every precinct, whore house, outhouse and chicken house in the country. But there has been no evidence of widespread voter fraud. And as Trump now stands metaphorically naked before the American people, fewer will follow the lesser imps who remain.
Donald Trump defiled the office of the presidency and his November 5 remarks should go down as the lowest point for any chief executive at any time in American history.
But he will soon be on his way and the soul of America is still intact. The people of the United States showed that. The poll workers in precincts across the country showed us the system is sound and people from all political parties and persuasions can work together.
The American soul is strong. Democracy is messy and working together and treating each other with respect is alive and well. Poll workers dedicated to the American dream proved that this week. We only need to excise the malignancy of Donald Trump to encourage people to work together once again.
It will be done because Donald Trump is done.
As Donald Trump walked away from us last night I asked him why he continued to lie to the American people and why was he so delusional. He flinched, but didn’t answer, and held on to a column as he rounded the corner and disappeared into the bowels of the White House.
It may be the last time I get to ask him a question as president.


Those Obama-Trump Counties

Though Joe Biden eked out a victory this week , it wasn ’ t because of the many former Democratic strongholds that unexpectedly swung for Trump in 2016 .
Of the 206 counties that voted for Obama in both 2008 and 2012 but then went for Trump in 2016 , nearly all of them—186 as of this writing—remained faithful to the president in 2020 .
For example , Biden lost all 31 Obama-Trump counties in Iowa , an important bellwether .
Of the 23 such counties in Wisconsin , Biden lost all but one of them .
He lost all @ @ @ @ @ @ @ In Georgia , Biden lost all five Obama-Trump counties .
The story is the same in Florida and North Carolina .
And although the final results are still rolling in , Trump seems to have widened his margins in some of these Obama counties .
Many of the pivot counties in Iowa and Ohio , for example , went even more for Trump in 2020 .
The New York Times further found that Trump has improved his margins slightly in Obama-Trump areas in Florida , Georgia , and North Carolina .
For Democrats @ @ @ @ @ @ @ upper Midwest .
Trump won by smaller margins in a number of Obama-Trump counties in Minnesota , Wisconsin , and Michigan .
A few even flipped back into the Democratic fold : Biden edged out Trump in 1 of Michigan ’ s 12 Obama-Trump counties , and a few in Minnesota , a state that went narrowly for Clinton .
Even in these states , though , Trump actually padded his margins in many Democratic strongholds that Obama and Biden won just eight years ago .
Why he surged in some ( but @ @ @ @ @ @ @ t clear .
Biden ’ s weak showing in Obama-Trump country is a reminder that Democrats will need to reckon with their increasingly strained relationship to the white working class .
Since Trump ’ s victory in 2016 , some Democrats have concluded that the relationship is not worth repairing since these former blue strongholds are simply the home to racist deplorables .
That has been a mistake .
As we argue in our new book , Trump ’ s Democrats , citizens in these communities admire Trump not primarily because of defects @ @ @ @ @ @ @ they like Trump for reasons that are more cultural than psychological .
After living in three blue strongholds that flipped in 2016 , we found that many were Trumpy well before Trump arrived on the national political stage .
Some of these communities ’ most beloved Democratic leaders are brazen , thin-skinned , nepotistic , and promise to provide for their constituents by cutting deals—and corners , if needed .
This is partly because their political culture has been shaped by a working-class honor culture that prizes strong men and a tradition of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ideological .
These citizens also have strong loyalties to hometowns that are confronting serious social and economic problems .
Unlike the Proud Boys , most Trump Democrats take more pride in their hometown than their skin color .
And while the extent of Trump ’ s success among black and Latino voters this week won ’ t be understood until the exit polls have been reweighted—and maybe not even then—just looking at some of the places where he performed well at the polls suggests that his appeal can not be reduced to white @ @ @ @ @ @ @ strategic mistake for progressives to wash their hands of Trump ’ s Democrats , especially because they are well represented in many critical battleground states .
Biden , after all , won back some of these states by the slimmest of margins despite a pandemic and slumping economy hanging over the head of the incumbent president .
Apparently , it really took a plague to drive Donald Trump from office .
But even if Democrats are somehow able to consistently cobble together winning coalitions without these voters , they still have to ask @ @ @ @ @ @ @ kind of party do they want theirs to become ?
More pointedly , do they want to have a broad-based party of the American working class ?
If they do , then progressives need to better understand the cultural chasm that divides blue communities in college towns and urban centers from those that lie behind the Democrats ’ tattered blue wall .
Republicans , meanwhile , face a different challenge .
They need to dispense with Trumpism without alienating the president ’ s new enthusiasts .
To walk that tightrope , they need @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Obama-Trump voters .
For Never Trumpers that begins by resisting the temptation to read Trump ’ s deplorableness back into his supporters .
The party that successfully knits Trump ’ s Democrats into its coalition may well be the one that holds the balance of power for years to come .
Thanks to our students Kimi Adler , Ana Deckey , Harrison Schreiber , and Sahil Tekchandani for their research assistance .

Though Joe Biden eked out a victory this week, it wasn’t because of the many former Democratic strongholds that unexpectedly swung for Trump in 2016. Of the 206 counties that voted for Obama in both 2008 and 2012 but then went for Trump in 2016, nearly all of them—186 as of this writing—remained faithful to the president in 2020.
For example, Biden lost all 31 Obama-Trump counties in Iowa, an important bellwether. Of the 23 such counties in Wisconsin, Biden lost all but one of them. He lost all but one in Ohio, too. In Georgia, Biden lost all five Obama-Trump counties. The story is the same in Florida and North Carolina.
And although the final results are still rolling in, Trump seems to have widened his margins in some of these Obama counties. Many of the pivot counties in Iowa and Ohio, for example, went even more for Trump in 2020. The New York Times further found that Trump has improved his margins slightly in Obama-Trump areas in Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina.
For Democrats the picture is slightly better in the upper Midwest. Trump won by smaller margins in a number of Obama-Trump counties in Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan. A few even flipped back into the Democratic fold: Biden edged out Trump in 1 of Michigan’s 12 Obama-Trump counties, and a few in Minnesota, a state that went narrowly for Clinton. Even in these states, though, Trump actually padded his margins in many Democratic strongholds that Obama and Biden won just eight years ago. Why he surged in some (but weakened in others) still isn’t clear.
Podcast · August 15 2023 A.B. Stoddard: All the Ex-President’s Conspirators Donald Trump has been a low-rent mobster for his entire career, and now he’s getting…
Biden’s weak showing in Obama-Trump country is a reminder that Democrats will need to reckon with their increasingly strained relationship to the white working class.
Since Trump’s victory in 2016, some Democrats have concluded that the relationship is not worth repairing since these former blue strongholds are simply the home to racist deplorables. That has been a mistake. As we argue in our new book, Trump’s Democrats, citizens in these communities admire Trump not primarily because of defects in their personal character. Rather, they like Trump for reasons that are more cultural than psychological.
After living in three blue strongholds that flipped in 2016, we found that many were Trumpy well before Trump arrived on the national political stage. Some of these communities’ most beloved Democratic leaders are brazen, thin-skinned, nepotistic, and promise to provide for their constituents by cutting deals—and corners, if needed. This is partly because their political culture has been shaped by a working-class honor culture that prizes strong men and a tradition of boss-style politics that is more transactional than ideological.
These citizens also have strong loyalties to hometowns that are confronting serious social and economic problems. Unlike the Proud Boys, most Trump Democrats take more pride in their hometown than their skin color. And while the extent of Trump’s success among black and Latino voters this week won’t be understood until the exit polls have been reweighted—and maybe not even then—just looking at some of the places where he performed well at the polls suggests that his appeal cannot be reduced to white nationalism.
It would also be a strategic mistake for progressives to wash their hands of Trump’s Democrats, especially because they are well represented in many critical battleground states. Biden, after all, won back some of these states by the slimmest of margins despite a pandemic and slumping economy hanging over the head of the incumbent president. Apparently, it really took a plague to drive Donald Trump from office.
But even if Democrats are somehow able to consistently cobble together winning coalitions without these voters, they still have to ask themselves a more existential question: What kind of party do they want theirs to become? More pointedly, do they want to have a broad-based party of the American working class?
If they do, then progressives need to better understand the cultural chasm that divides blue communities in college towns and urban centers from those that lie behind the Democrats’ tattered blue wall.
Republicans, meanwhile, face a different challenge. They need to dispense with Trumpism without alienating the president’s new enthusiasts. To walk that tightrope, they need a far better cultural understanding of these Obama-Trump voters. For Never Trumpers that begins by resisting the temptation to read Trump’s deplorableness back into his supporters.
The party that successfully knits Trump’s Democrats into its coalition may well be the one that holds the balance of power for years to come.
Thanks to our students Kimi Adler, Ana Deckey, Harrison Schreiber, and Sahil Tekchandani for their research assistance.


He’s Fired

In 2016 , a few days after Jeb got routed in South Carolina , I was back at South Beach , sunning myself , reading a coming-of-age novel , nursing my wounds and a lukewarm beer .
It was a routine that I intended to repeat every day for a few weeks .
But then I got a call from a work friend with a proposition .
Would I be interested in running communications for a group that was trying to stop Donald Trump from winning the GOP nomination ?
At the time I still didn ’ t quite believe @ @ @ @ @ @ @ president , so I ignored the advice of friends and mentors who warned me about taking a career risk by crossing a guy who might win .
My view at the time was pretty simple and something I didn ’ t really stop and do a lot of calculating about : This was stuff I ’ m pretty good at .
The prospect of Donald Trump as president was unacceptable in every imaginable sense .
It would be better for everyone to stop him sooner rather than later .
And I ’ d @ @ @ @ @ @ @ effort .
So it began .
In the intervening 1,712 days , nothing outside of my family consumed my thoughts more than defeating Donald Trump and helping to save the country I love .
Maybe you felt something similar .
I hope not .
Having so much Trump on the brain hasn ’ t been pleasant .
But lots—and lots—of folks did .
Because Trump represented something new in American politics .
His sociopathic malice was all-consuming , his pathological need for attention was exhausting , and what his rise said about our @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has been wrenching .
It was a car crash you can ’ t avoid rubbernecking , no matter how hard you tried .
On the eve of the 2016 election , the one thing that I most looked forward to was the prospect of never having to consider Donald Trump again .
Never having to waste another solitary brain particle on him .
Alas it wasn ’ t to be then .
It certainly hasn ’ t been the case during this week ’ s 50+ hour Steve Kornacki Big Board binge fest @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
We are not done with Donald Trump as a malignant force in American politics just because he was defeated in his re-election bid .
He will still be in office for eleven critical weeks .
Then we will have to contend with him for years to come .
He may have broken something fundamental in our country that will take a generation to fix .
I understand all that .
But those impending threats shouldn ’ t minimize the enormity of what we accomplished in brushing him back .
And it doesn @ @ @ @ @ @ @ less sweet .
This week ’ s election has left us with a lot to be anxious about .
Tens of millions of people will believe that it was stolen from the president .
They will think that because the president himself says it and because his aligned propaganda outlets are seeding this paranoia .
We ’ ve already seen thwarted attempts at violence following this conspiracy mongering .
The mainstream media spent umpteen hours allowing these conspiracies to fester , refusing to make a call that they would certainly not have delayed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ foot and they weren ’ t petrified by the prospect of Sore Loserman ’ s launching his minions in their direction .
Moreover , it ’ s pretty damn troubling that there are tens of millions of people who affirmatively voted for Donald Trump not despite , but because of , what he has done over the last four years .
An overwhelming repudiation of this man ’ s cruelty was something that many of us craved , deep down in our bones .
The election denied us the gratification of seeing our @ @ @ @ @ @ @ voice , that this is not who we are .
That here , right matters .
In addition it looks , as of this writing , as if Joe Biden was denied the opportunity to have a Senate majority leader who will try to work with him to make the lives of people in our country better , rather than nihilistically try to kneecap him from the moment he puts his hand on the Bible .
But we mustn ’ t allow those disappointments to conceal what was achieved in this victory .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ the most cynical and villainous campaign for re-election in modern American history .
He was impeached for extorting an ally into fabricating dirt on his opponent .
He indiscriminately violated the law that forbids presidents from using taxpayer resources to campaign .
He even held his party ’ s national political convention on the White House lawn , like a trashy caudillo .
He weaponized the Department of Justice and pressured agencies to favor campaign propaganda over public health .
He smeared his opponent in ways that were grotesque even by the modern @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hideous lie .
He put the lives of untold tens of thousands of Americans at risk to hold the most reckless public gatherings in the entire world amid a global pandemic .
He had at his disposal a massive non-state media operation that echoed his every lie , no matter how preposterous , and ignored every piece of counter-evidence , in order to further his lies .
While Joe Biden hewed to the mores and norms of American politics and basic decency , Donald Trump tried to take every possible advantage , no @ @ @ @ @ @ @ immoral .
And in the face of all of that , Joe Biden is going to flip 4 or 5 states , end up with a decisive 6+ million margin and earn more votes than any presidential candidate in American history .
More people voted against Donald Trump than have ever voted against any president , ever .
You know what else Joe Biden accomplished ?
He won the presidency by running as himself .
He never pretended to be something he wasn ’ t .
He never resorted to smears or dirty @ @ @ @ @ @ @ policy in order to stay in the mainstream of his party , but never pandered to his base .
He committed to be a bipartisan president for all Americans , despite the desire in parts of the left to go scorched earth against any and all Republicans .
He won while sticking by his son , never throwing his kid under the bus , even when it would have been politically convenient .
He won alongside a running mate who will be the first female vice president of the United States .
Think @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a black man and black woman to the highest offices in the land and the historic nature of this moment is barely even mentioned .
So what I ’ m trying to tell you is this : Yes , there are challenges .
Yes , the outcomes could have been better for America .
But Joe Biden ’ s ascension to the presidency is not a consolation prize .
It ’ s a very real victory for this country .
President Biden will be able to reverse Trump ’ s grotesquely un-American immigration @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and competent executive branch managing the pandemic crisis .
The new president will restore the rule of law and ensure everyone is treated fairly , no matter their political orientation .
He ’ ll rebuild our alliances and tell the revanchist mini Trumps the world over that they can be allies in democracy and freedom , or go pound sand .
Most importantly he has stopped our nation ’ s slide towards the Orbán-esque soft authoritarianism that would have threatened the very fabric of our democratic republic had Trump won a second term @ @ @ @ @ @ @ constraints .
This , my friends , is what sweet , sweet victory looks like .
This is making our country a better place .
Americans should take pride in what we just accomplished .
We could have succumbed to his madness .
Success was by no means pre-ordained .
Instead we are able to revel in the culmination of a half-decade long fight against a menace unlike anything we ’ ve seen in this country in a long time .
So even though there is much work to be done , let @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and let it echo from sea to shining sea .
Say it with me .
Donald Trump : You are fired .
You are fired .
You .
Are .
FIRED .

In 2016, a few days after Jeb got routed in South Carolina, I was back at South Beach, sunning myself, reading a coming-of-age novel, nursing my wounds and a lukewarm beer. It was a routine that I intended to repeat every day for a few weeks.
But then I got a call from a work friend with a proposition. Would I be interested in running communications for a group that was trying to stop Donald Trump from winning the GOP nomination? At the time I still didn’t quite believe that this manifest incompetent could actually become president, so I ignored the advice of friends and mentors who warned me about taking a career risk by crossing a guy who might win.
My view at the time was pretty simple and something I didn’t really stop and do a lot of calculating about: This was stuff I’m pretty good at. The prospect of Donald Trump as president was unacceptable in every imaginable sense. It would be better for everyone to stop him sooner rather than later. And I’d like to be a part of that effort. So it began.
In the intervening 1,712 days, nothing outside of my family consumed my thoughts more than defeating Donald Trump and helping to save the country I love. Maybe you felt something similar. I hope not. Having so much Trump on the brain hasn’t been pleasant.
But lots—and lots—of folks did. Because Trump represented something new in American politics. His sociopathic malice was all-consuming, his pathological need for attention was exhausting, and what his rise said about our country, our friends, our families has been wrenching.
It was a car crash you can’t avoid rubbernecking, no matter how hard you tried.
On the eve of the 2016 election, the one thing that I most looked forward to was the prospect of never having to consider Donald Trump again. Never having to waste another solitary brain particle on him.
Alas it wasn’t to be then. It certainly hasn’t been the case during this week’s 50+ hour Steve Kornacki Big Board binge fest. Nor will it be going forward. We are not done with Donald Trump as a malignant force in American politics just because he was defeated in his re-election bid. He will still be in office for eleven critical weeks. Then we will have to contend with him for years to come. He may have broken something fundamental in our country that will take a generation to fix. I understand all that.
But those impending threats shouldn’t minimize the enormity of what we accomplished in brushing him back.
And it doesn’t make this next sentence any less sweet.
Donald Trump: You’re Fucking Fired.
Podcast · August 15 2023 A.B. Stoddard: All the Ex-President’s Conspirators Donald Trump has been a low-rent mobster for his entire career, and now he’s getting…
This week’s election has left us with a lot to be anxious about. Tens of millions of people will believe that it was stolen from the president. They will think that because the president himself says it and because his aligned propaganda outlets are seeding this paranoia. We’ve already seen thwarted attempts at violence following this conspiracy mongering.
The mainstream media spent umpteen hours allowing these conspiracies to fester, refusing to make a call that they would certainly not have delayed if the shoe were on the other foot and they weren’t petrified by the prospect of Sore Loserman launching his minions in their direction.
Moreover, it’s pretty damn troubling that there are tens of millions of people who affirmatively voted for Donald Trump not despite, but because of, what he has done over the last four years.
An overwhelming repudiation of this man’s cruelty was something that many of us craved, deep down in our bones. The election denied us the gratification of seeing our country unite and say, with one voice, that this is not who we are. That here, right matters.
In addition it looks, as of this writing, as if Joe Biden was denied the opportunity to have a Senate majority leader who will try to work with him to make the lives of people in our country better, rather than nihilistically try to kneecap him from the moment he puts his hand on the Bible.
But we mustn’t allow those disappointments to conceal what was achieved in this victory. What was overcome.
Donald Trump ran the most cynical and villainous campaign for re-election in modern American history.
He was impeached for extorting an ally into fabricating dirt on his opponent.
He indiscriminately violated the law that forbids presidents from using taxpayer resources to campaign. He even held his party’s national political convention on the White House lawn, like a trashy caudillo.
He weaponized the Department of Justice and pressured agencies to favor campaign propaganda over public health.
He smeared his opponent in ways that were grotesque even by the modern standards of electioneering, piling lie upon hideous lie.
He put the lives of untold tens of thousands of Americans at risk to hold the most reckless public gatherings in the entire world amid a global pandemic.
He had at his disposal a massive non-state media operation that echoed his every lie, no matter how preposterous, and ignored every piece of counter-evidence, in order to further his lies.
While Joe Biden hewed to the mores and norms of American politics and basic decency, Donald Trump tried to take every possible advantage, no matter how unethical, untrue, or immoral.
And in the face of all of that, Joe Biden is going to flip 4 or 5 states, end up with a decisive 6+ million margin and earn more votes than any presidential candidate in American history.
That’s right.
More people voted against Donald Trump than have ever voted against any president, ever.
You know what else Joe Biden accomplished? He won the presidency by running as himself. He never pretended to be something he wasn’t. He never resorted to smears or dirty tricks. He made some micro-adjustments on policy in order to stay in the mainstream of his party, but never pandered to his base. He committed to be a bipartisan president for all Americans, despite the desire in parts of the left to go scorched earth against any and all Republicans.
He won while sticking by his son, never throwing his kid under the bus, even when it would have been politically convenient.
He won alongside a running mate who will be the first female vice president of the United States. Think about this: America has now elected a black man and black woman to the highest offices in the land and the historic nature of this moment is barely even mentioned.
So what I’m trying to tell you is this: Yes, there are challenges. Yes, the outcomes could have been better for America. But Joe Biden’s ascension to the presidency is not a consolation prize.
It’s a very real victory for this country.
President Biden will be able to reverse Trump’s grotesquely un-American immigration regime.
America will have a trustworthy and competent executive branch managing the pandemic crisis.
The new president will restore the rule of law and ensure everyone is treated fairly, no matter their political orientation.
He’ll rebuild our alliances and tell the revanchist mini Trumps the world over that they can be allies in democracy and freedom, or go pound sand.
Most importantly he has stopped our nation’s slide towards the Orbán-esque soft authoritarianism that would have threatened the very fabric of our democratic republic had Trump won a second term and been even more unencumbered by political constraints.
This, my friends, is what sweet, sweet victory looks like. This is making our country a better place.
Americans should take pride in what we just accomplished. We could have succumbed to his madness. Success was by no means pre-ordained.
Instead we are able to revel in the culmination of a half-decade long fight against a menace unlike anything we’ve seen in this country in a long time.
So even though there is much work to be done, let us all indulge in a joyful sound and let it echo from sea to shining sea.
Say it with me.
Donald Trump: You are fired. You are fired. You. Are. FIRED.