asiapacificresearch--2020-11-18--How Can the Belt and Road Better Protect Biodiversity?

In 1939 , a population of orangutans was found in the Batang Toru jungle in South Tapanuli on the Indonesian island of Sumatra .
They were thought to be Sumatran orangutans , but in 2017 scientists discovered they were an entirely new species – the Tapanuli orangutan .
Five years earlier , in 2012 , Indonesia had announced a US $ 1.6 billion hydropower project on the Batang Toru River .
Some local jungle has since been cleared for the project , which is due to be completed in 2022 .
This has left the Tapanuli orangutan population , already @ @ @ @ @ @ @ facing complete collapse .
In June 2018 , 25 leading environmentalists wrote to Indonesia ’ s president , Joko Widodo , calling for a halt to further development in the area .
Chinese financial institutions and businesses have prominent roles in the Batang Toru hydropower project , which is part of China ’ s Belt and Road Initiative ( BRI ) .
It is just one example of the impact the BRI is having – or could have – on biodiversity .
This was highlighted in a paper from Malaysian , Burmese , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ scientists published in the academic journal Biological Conservation in July this year , which analysed the possible impact of planned BRI projects on biodiversity in Southeast Asia .
Based on their findings , the researchers called for BRI planning to take connectivity of ecosystems into account , and for the creation of “ ecological corridors ” to connect otherwise isolated flora and fauna .
China proposed the BRI , an international economic belt inspired by the ancient Silk Road , in 2013 .
It covers the Chinese mainland ; Southeast Asia ; central @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ; Africa ; South America ; the coasts of the Indian Ocean and the Mediterranean ; and Pacific nations .
Its main aims are to boost infrastructure construction and develop new economic partnerships .
The initiative has led to the construction of roads , railways , oil pipelines , ports and power stations in nations associated with it .
According to the World Bank , BRI investment has now reached around US $ 575 billion .
But despite the Chinese government ’ s insistence it will create a “ Green Silk Road ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has caused controversy .
This includes effects on ecosystems and their biodiversity .
Southeast Asia is a region rich in biodiversity .
Home to many unique species , four of the world ’ s 34 “ biodiversity hotspots ” are to be found here .
The Biological Conservation paper pointed out that building infrastructure – particularly “ linear infrastructure ” such as roads and railways – can often harm or destroy the habitats of animals and plants around the construction area .
They can also cause habitat fragmentation , which divides and isolates @ @ @ @ @ @ @ or disappearance of species .
Worse , roads and railways make poaching and illegal resource extraction easier , and make the arrival of invasive species more likely .
Accidental deaths , such as while crossing roads , also become more frequent .
The researchers found BRI road and rail projects ( including both new construction and upgrades ) cut through 21 protected areas in mainland Southeast Asia , half of which are protected for their biodiversity .
Railway lines are having the biggest impact , affecting eight of those protected areas .
New @ @ @ @ @ @ @ regions , where they represent a greater threat to biodiversity .
Some of Southeast Asia ’ s last remaining original forests are threatened by roads and railways that are either planned or under construction .
For example , Thailand ’ s Dong Phayayen-Khao Yai Forest Complex , a UN World Heritage site , is less than 25km from BRI linear infrastructure .
The 25km measure is not a random one .
The researchers assessed the impact of road and rail projects within four distances : 1km , 5km , 25km and 50km .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ is a greater likelihood of poaching , accidental deaths , noise pollution and habitat destruction , and impacts increase with proximity to the site of a project .
According to the paper , 126 of Southeast Asia ’ s protected areas are within this 25km radius of BRI road and rail projects .
This covers 83 % of the region ’ s endangered mammals , 78 % of endangered birds , 53 % of endangered amphibians and 52 % of endangered reptiles .
The news is no better at sea , where the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have a destructive impact within a wider radius of 50km .
Twenty protected areas and 16 key biodiversity areas are affected .
Although the economic development that the BRI projects promise to promote is often welcomed , it ’ s clear that finding ways to reduce their impacts and protect ecologies is an urgent matter for all those involved .
One feasible approach is to increase funding for BRI projects to allow for spending on “ ecological infrastructure ” that will mitigate their impacts .
Binbin Li of the Environmental Research Center at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ authors of the paper , told China Dialogue : “ There are many types of ecological infrastructure .
For example , if you ’ re building a road , you could create an ecological corridor , or you could establish biodiversity monitoring stations to allow for better evaluation of the impact of ongoing construction.
” “ These things need investment .
With the support of funding , we can shift our infrastructure construction from focusing only on the economy towards becoming sustainable and green .
When designing infrastructure , we must consider the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ endemic or endangered species , by doing things like designing corridors that allow for the movement of species .
These things should be part of the planning stages , when avoiding key locations could also be considered , ” she added .
In 2016 , China ’ s 13th Five Year Plan for the environment called for the construction of ecological corridors as well as a biodiversity protection network to boost stability and “ ecological services ” from various types of ecosystem .
In August this year , the China Council for International @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ) put forward a raft of policy proposals for the Chinese government .
It suggested that ecological corridor targets , based around ecological red lines and protected areas , be included in the post-2020 framework for the UN Convention on Biological Diversity .
China is due to host the 15th Conference of the Parties to that convention next year .
Including measures like ecological corridors when planning infrastructure is bound to increase costs .
Making sure developers are willing and able to bear the extra expenses is therefore key .
Bai Yunwen , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ finance and investment topics .
She told China Dialogue that measures like ecological corridors can have such significant economic , environmental and social benefits that they are investments worth making .
She pointed out that when projects could take these measures but face a competitive marketplace that makes extra costs untenable , a blended finance approach can be taken , with development or philanthropic finance added to the usual commercial investment .
She also pointed out that while the Asian Development Bank , World Bank and Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank ( AIIB ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in place , Chinese financial institutions lack experience in these fields and need to catch up .
A clear example of this lack of attention to wider environmental risks is the Batang Toru hydropower project , which has caused a huge amount of controversy both within Indonesia and overseas .
In March 2019 , the Bank of China stated on its English-language website that in response to the concerns of environmental groups it would “ evaluate the project very carefully and make prudent decisions by duly considering the promotion of green finance , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as the adherence to commercial principles ” .
Although the Chinese government has already issued a number of documents on building a “ Green BRI ” , these mostly only offer guidance .
They are neither binding nor specific enough to be implementable .
For example , a 2017 document on creating a Green BRI mentions protection of biodiversity three times – but provides no specific measures .
Similar issues are seen in other documents on management of overseas corporate investments , on green credit , and on environmental protection in overseas investments @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” happen and what is “ encouraged ” or “ focussed on ” make it next to impossible for the government to exercise oversight .
According to Bai , “ these documents are toothless ” .
“ Current policy and guidance isn ’ t binding on institutions and companies , and there are no sanctions for breaches , ” she said .
But she added that Chinese companies are sensitive to policy , and implementation of existing policies would be an important way of promoting biodiversity protection in BRI nations .
While biodiversity @ @ @ @ @ @ @ overseas financial activity , the country is engaged in scientific cooperation with Southeast Asian nations .
The Chinese Academy of Sciences has established a number of overseas branches working on biodiversity protection , such as the Southeast Asia Biodiversity Research Institute .
The institute is run by the Chinese Academy of Sciences ’ Xishuangbanna Tropical Botanical Garden .
Originally founded in Myanmar in October 2016 , it also has a branch in Vientiane , Laos .
The institute has carried out a number of joint surveys in mainland Southeast Asia , covering Myanmar @ @ @ @ @ @ @ discovering over 150 new species .
Research into the flora and fauna of Southeast Asian nations is often limited due to their under-developed economies , a lack of technology and a shortage of scientists focusing on biodiversity .
To help address this , the Chinese government has set up scholarships to help talented students from BRI nations study for master ’ s and doctorate degrees at the Chinese Academy of Sciences .
Binbin Li welcomes these measures by the Chinese Academy of Sciences .
“ I ’ d like to see more similar @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ But there still isn ’ t much research going on in Southeast Asia , where things got off to a later start than in the US and Europe .
So there ’ s still plenty of opportunities for Chinese researchers to work there and cooperate with local researchers .
On-the-ground data can then better support China ’ s overseas investments.
” Note to readers : please click the share buttons above or below .
Forward this article to your email lists .
Crosspost on your blog site , internet forums .
etc @ @ @ @ @ @ @ based in Chengdu , China , with an interest in environmental issues .
Featured image : Tapanuli Orangutans found near YEL ’ s orangutan study camp in the Batang Toru forest .
Image by Aditya Sumitra/Mighty Earth .

In 1939, a population of orangutans was found in the Batang Toru jungle in South Tapanuli on the Indonesian island of Sumatra. They were thought to be Sumatran orangutans, but in 2017 scientists discovered they were an entirely new species – the Tapanuli orangutan.
Five years earlier, in 2012, Indonesia had announced a US$1.6 billion hydropower project on the Batang Toru River. Some local jungle has since been cleared for the project, which is due to be completed in 2022. This has left the Tapanuli orangutan population, already critically endangered due to habitat fragmentation, facing complete collapse. In June 2018, 25 leading environmentalists wrote to Indonesia’s president, Joko Widodo, calling for a halt to further development in the area.
Chinese financial institutions and businesses have prominent roles in the Batang Toru hydropower project, which is part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). It is just one example of the impact the BRI is having – or could have – on biodiversity. This was highlighted in a paper from Malaysian, Burmese, Chinese, Australian, British and American scientists published in the academic journal Biological Conservation in July this year, which analysed the possible impact of planned BRI projects on biodiversity in Southeast Asia. Based on their findings, the researchers called for BRI planning to take connectivity of ecosystems into account, and for the creation of “ecological corridors” to connect otherwise isolated flora and fauna.
Biodiversity under pressure
China proposed the BRI, an international economic belt inspired by the ancient Silk Road, in 2013. It covers the Chinese mainland; Southeast Asia; central, northern and western parts of Asia; Africa; South America; the coasts of the Indian Ocean and the Mediterranean; and Pacific nations. Its main aims are to boost infrastructure construction and develop new economic partnerships.
The initiative has led to the construction of roads, railways, oil pipelines, ports and power stations in nations associated with it. According to the World Bank, BRI investment has now reached around US$575 billion. But despite the Chinese government’s insistence it will create a “Green Silk Road”, the environmental impact of many projects has caused controversy. This includes effects on ecosystems and their biodiversity.
Southeast Asia is a region rich in biodiversity. Home to many unique species, four of the world’s 34 “biodiversity hotspots” are to be found here.
The Biological Conservation paper pointed out that building infrastructure – particularly “linear infrastructure” such as roads and railways – can often harm or destroy the habitats of animals and plants around the construction area. They can also cause habitat fragmentation, which divides and isolates populations, sometimes leading to the decline or disappearance of species. Worse, roads and railways make poaching and illegal resource extraction easier, and make the arrival of invasive species more likely. Accidental deaths, such as while crossing roads, also become more frequent.
The researchers found BRI road and rail projects (including both new construction and upgrades) cut through 21 protected areas in mainland Southeast Asia, half of which are protected for their biodiversity.
Railway lines are having the biggest impact, affecting eight of those protected areas. New railways are commonly built in relatively undeveloped regions, where they represent a greater threat to biodiversity. Some of Southeast Asia’s last remaining original forests are threatened by roads and railways that are either planned or under construction. For example, Thailand’s Dong Phayayen-Khao Yai Forest Complex, a UN World Heritage site, is less than 25km from BRI linear infrastructure.
The 25km measure is not a random one. The researchers assessed the impact of road and rail projects within four distances: 1km, 5km, 25km and 50km. They found that within 25km, there is a greater likelihood of poaching, accidental deaths, noise pollution and habitat destruction, and impacts increase with proximity to the site of a project.
According to the paper, 126 of Southeast Asia’s protected areas are within this 25km radius of BRI road and rail projects. This covers 83% of the region’s endangered mammals, 78% of endangered birds, 53% of endangered amphibians and 52% of endangered reptiles.
The news is no better at sea, where the researchers found that BRI shipping routes can have a destructive impact within a wider radius of 50km. Twenty protected areas and 16 key biodiversity areas are affected.
Although the economic development that the BRI projects promise to promote is often welcomed, it’s clear that finding ways to reduce their impacts and protect ecologies is an urgent matter for all those involved.
Building ecological corridors
One feasible approach is to increase funding for BRI projects to allow for spending on “ecological infrastructure” that will mitigate their impacts.
Binbin Li of the Environmental Research Center at Duke Kunshan University and one of the authors of the paper, told China Dialogue:
“There are many types of ecological infrastructure. For example, if you’re building a road, you could create an ecological corridor, or you could establish biodiversity monitoring stations to allow for better evaluation of the impact of ongoing construction.” “These things need investment. With the support of funding, we can shift our infrastructure construction from focusing only on the economy towards becoming sustainable and green. When designing infrastructure, we must consider the integrity of ecosystems and the protection of endemic or endangered species, by doing things like designing corridors that allow for the movement of species. These things should be part of the planning stages, when avoiding key locations could also be considered,” she added.
In 2016, China’s 13th Five Year Plan for the environment called for the construction of ecological corridors as well as a biodiversity protection network to boost stability and “ecological services” from various types of ecosystem. In August this year, the China Council for International Cooperation on Environment and Development (CICCED) put forward a raft of policy proposals for the Chinese government. It suggested that ecological corridor targets, based around ecological red lines and protected areas, be included in the post-2020 framework for the UN Convention on Biological Diversity. China is due to host the 15th Conference of the Parties to that convention next year.
Better financing
Including measures like ecological corridors when planning infrastructure is bound to increase costs. Making sure developers are willing and able to bear the extra expenses is therefore key.
Bai Yunwen, director of Greenovation Hub, follows green finance and investment topics. She told China Dialogue that measures like ecological corridors can have such significant economic, environmental and social benefits that they are investments worth making. She pointed out that when projects could take these measures but face a competitive marketplace that makes extra costs untenable, a blended finance approach can be taken, with development or philanthropic finance added to the usual commercial investment.
She also pointed out that while the Asian Development Bank, World Bank and Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) all have established environmental and social safeguards in place, Chinese financial institutions lack experience in these fields and need to catch up.
“Almost all of the main Chinese banks have set up environmental due diligence processes. But they mainly rely on traditional environmental impact assessments, and don’t have the capacity to identify or manage cross-border, cross-sector and long-term environmental risks. Multilateral financial institutions and international organisations have plenty of tools that can be used to identify regional biodiversity risks, but in general, Chinese banks don’t use these,” she said.
A clear example of this lack of attention to wider environmental risks is the Batang Toru hydropower project, which has caused a huge amount of controversy both within Indonesia and overseas. In March 2019, the Bank of China stated on its English-language website that in response to the concerns of environmental groups it would “evaluate the project very carefully and make prudent decisions by duly considering the promotion of green finance, the fulfilment of social responsibility as well as the adherence to commercial principles”.
Although the Chinese government has already issued a number of documents on building a “Green BRI”, these mostly only offer guidance. They are neither binding nor specific enough to be implementable. For example, a 2017 document on creating a Green BRI mentions protection of biodiversity three times – but provides no specific measures. Similar issues are seen in other documents on management of overseas corporate investments, on green credit, and on environmental protection in overseas investments. Fuzzy language about what “should” happen and what is “encouraged” or “focussed on” make it next to impossible for the government to exercise oversight.
According to Bai, “these documents are toothless”. “Current policy and guidance isn’t binding on institutions and companies, and there are no sanctions for breaches,” she said. But she added that Chinese companies are sensitive to policy, and implementation of existing policies would be an important way of promoting biodiversity protection in BRI nations.
Scientific cooperation
While biodiversity may be overlooked in China’s overseas financial activity, the country is engaged in scientific cooperation with Southeast Asian nations. The Chinese Academy of Sciences has established a number of overseas branches working on biodiversity protection, such as the Southeast Asia Biodiversity Research Institute.
The institute is run by the Chinese Academy of Sciences’ Xishuangbanna Tropical Botanical Garden. Originally founded in Myanmar in October 2016, it also has a branch in Vientiane, Laos. The institute has carried out a number of joint surveys in mainland Southeast Asia, covering Myanmar, Thailand, Vietnam and Laos and discovering over 150 new species.
Research into the flora and fauna of Southeast Asian nations is often limited due to their under-developed economies, a lack of technology and a shortage of scientists focusing on biodiversity. To help address this, the Chinese government has set up scholarships to help talented students from BRI nations study for master’s and doctorate degrees at the Chinese Academy of Sciences.
Binbin Li welcomes these measures by the Chinese Academy of Sciences. “I’d like to see more similar things happen,” she said. “But there still isn’t much research going on in Southeast Asia, where things got off to a later start than in the US and Europe. So there’s still plenty of opportunities for Chinese researchers to work there and cooperate with local researchers. On-the-ground data can then better support China’s overseas investments.”
*
Note to readers: please click the share buttons above or below. Forward this article to your email lists. Crosspost on your blog site, internet forums. etc.
Xia Zhijian is a freelance writer based in Chengdu, China, with an interest in environmental issues.
Featured image: Tapanuli Orangutans found near YEL’s orangutan study camp in the Batang Toru forest. Image by Aditya Sumitra/Mighty Earth.


asiapacificresearch--2020-11-18--Japan, Australia, and the Rejigging of Asia-Pacific Alliances

Then and Now The geopolitical frame of inter-state relationships as it exists today in East Asia remains as set around 70 years ago in the wake of the cataclysmic Second World War and subsequent San Francisco Treaty ( 1951 ) , when the US was undisputed master of the world , China divided and excluded , Korea divided and at war , Japan divided ( Okinawa severed from it ) and occupied , and the apparatus of occupation , bases , and US hegemony was unquestioned and seen to be crucial to maintaining regional and global “ security.
” True @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 1955 the Warsaw Pact alliance system , constituted a second global pole , but both eventually dissolved in 1991 , leaving the United States and its hegemonic system supreme .
The economic underpinnings of that system , however , are now rudely shaken .
The United States , in 1950 , with about half of global GDP , is now 16 per cent ( in “ purchasing power parity ” or PPP terms ) and is expected to decline to 12 per cent by 2050 , while China , already ( 2016 ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ an astounding fifteen times in the two decades from 1995 , and the OECD expects this to continue , to reach about 27 per cent during the 2030s , before slowly declining to around 20 per cent in 2060.
” 1 Chinese GDP , one-quarter that of Japan ’ s in 1991 , surpassed it in 2001 and trebled ( or even quadrupled ) it in 2018.2 Late in 2020 the IMF declared that China had become the world ’ s biggest economy , $ 24.2 trillion to the US ’ s $ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The alliance system as a design to preserve US hegemony looks increasingly incongruous .
The shift in relative weight between Japan , the US and China , and the mounting evidence that the two centuries of Anglo-Saxon hegemony on which Japan has staked its future for more than half a century may be coming to an end , challenges Japan .
The more that the United States grows feeble and flounders , the more that doubt in Japan spreads as to the wisdom of entrusting the national destiny to a sometime superstate now @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Hirohito ( emperor , 1926-1989 ) to Abe ( Prime Minister , 2006-7 and 2012-2020 ) fudged national sovereignty by adopting submission to the United States as core national policy , becoming its “ client state ” ( or zokkoku ) .4 Submission to the global super-power sat uneasily with Japanese pride and identity but made some sense on the assumption that the US global dominance of 1951 would continue and that it would maintain a benevolent disposition towards Japan .
The provision of a chain of military bases throughout the Japanese archipelago @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Japan ’ s privileged position within the US-dominated world system.5 Over time the constitutionally pacifist Japan became world no .
8 on the scale of military power , spending around $ 50 billion annually on weapons and weapons systems.6 Its 247,000-strong military is larger than that of the UK , Germany , or France .
It also subsidizes the Pentagon to the tune of almost $ 7 billion annually ( as of 2016 ) 7 , providing generous financial support for a major US global military presence ( over one hundred bases ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ despatched at will to battlefronts from Korea and Vietnam in the 1950s and 1960s and to the Middle East and North Africa since then .
It now possesses fighter aircraft , battleships and submarines , even two aircraft carriers ( coyly described as a “ heli-carriers ” being “ only ” 248 metres-long ) .
And it cooperates with the US not only in “ conventional ” military programs but also in those designed to establish hegemonic control over space and cyber-space ( the Ministry of Defence budgets for a 540-person cyber unit @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .8 Over the past decade , especially during the second Abe Shinzo government ( 2012-2020 ) , purchases of US weaponry multiplied , the ban on arms exports was softened and the self-imposed expenditure limit of 1 per cent of GDP dropped ( in March 2017 ) .
Japan ’ s air force and navy are already second to none ( save the United States itself ) in the Western Pacific .
That regional superiority has been slowly eroding .
Despite Japan steadily increasing its military spending under the Abe government , by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ yen , or about one-quarter of China ’ s ( 20,288 trillion yen equivalent ) .9 Japan ’ s ruling Liberal-Democratic Party now calls on government to double defence expenditure to reach the NATO ( nominal ) level of 2 per cent of GDP.10 There can be no good outcome if East Asia ’ s two great powers continue to seek military advantage .
Japan under Abe Shinzo de facto revised the constitution by the adoption in 2015 of legislation making possible recourse to war in support of an ally.11 One of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was to initiate moves towards acquiring weapons capable of striking missile launch sites in enemy territory “ if an attack seemed imminent.
” 12 It would be hard to imagine any more egregious breach of the constitution ’ s Article 9 peace clause than such legitimation of pre-emptive attack .
No country has served the Trump cause so unconditionally and uncritically as Japan over these past three and a half years , with Abe Shinzo a favoured golf companion , phone buddy , customer for US arms sales , and “ 100 per @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” policies .
Prior to the US presidential election of 2016 , Japan had been close to the Hillary Clinton camp , but from the moment of the Trump triumph it shifted quickly .
As the Trump-Biden contest approached resolution late in 2020 , the Government of Japan was undoubtedly working to adjust once again .
But there were also larger schemes afoot .
Might it be time for a comprehensive rejigging of the alliance system ?
Two ?
Three ?
Four ?
Or More ?
Paid much less attention than it warrants @ @ @ @ @ @ @ been steadily evolving in the direction of comprehensive cooperation and alliance .
The two US-tied , sometime bitter enemies and Western Pacific powers now appear to grow close .
Without debate , and almost it seems without publicity , the two seek to tighten their exclusive bilateral security relations with the US by making them trilateral , or quadrilateral , building a multinational NATO-esque military alliance to shore up US hegemony in the Asia-Pacific region .
The vision originally associated with Vice President Dick Cheney ( under George W. Bush , president 2001-2009 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and Prosperity ” encircling and constraining China has become widely accepted in Japanese and Australian defence circles and the bilateral defence relationship an increasingly institutionalized and regular part of it .
Australia normalized commercial relations with Japan in 1957 , upgraded the relationship to one of amity in 1977 .
Promoted by governments and oppositions alike since then , it has flourished .
Labour ’ s Prime Minister ( Bob ) Hawke [ Prime Minister 1983-1991 ] told members of parliament in Tokyo in 1990 that Japan should become “ more forthcoming , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has been in the past , ” and that : Notable in the Hawke view , and similarly articulated by subsequent Australian government heads , is the absence of any reference to Japan ’ s peace constitution .
It appeared to be taken for granted that Japan , although a constitutional peace state , should continue on the path to becoming a military great power within the framework of an expanded US-Japan-Australia ( -India ? )
alliance .
Japan ’ s constitutional proscription is generally seen in Australia as an obstacle to be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ declared to the world .
John Howard , Prime Minister from 1996 to 2007 , went on record even before he took office as favouring a tripartite defence relationship involving Australia , the US , and Japan , with Japan becoming a major regional military force.14 He was even willing to sign a full-scale alliance treaty.15 Vice-President Dick Cheney , on his February 2007 visit to Australia and Japan urged cooperation on both governments , especially the reinforcing of links between Japan ’ s Self-Defence Force and the Australian Defence Force , within @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of containment of China , stretching from Japan to Australia and beyond to India .
In Tokyo in March 2007 , Howard signed with his Japanese counterpart a “ Joint Declaration on Security Cooperation ” that endorsed their shared “ democratic values , a commitment to human rights , freedom and the rule of law.
” 16 Abe suggested to George W. Bush the formation of an Asia-Pacific Democratic League or “ Strategic Dialogue ” linking the arc of four , and spoke in essentially the same vein , with some eloquence , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2007.17 High-level ( “ Two Plus Two ” [ Foreign and Defence Ministerial ] ) meetings between Australia and Japan began in 2007 and have continued .
However , the 2007 idea of a four-part alliance went no further at that time as India lost interest , ill-health forced Abe ’ s resignation , and political change in Australia saw the advent of a Kevin Rudd government ( 2007-2010 ) keen to improve relations with China.18 The agenda for Abe Shinzo ’ s second term , ( December 2012 to September 2020 ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ resumed Prime Ministerial office in December 2012 .
The ( US ) Center for Strategic and International Studies ( CSIS ) admonished Japan to think carefully about what would be required if it wanted to remain a “ tier-one ” nation , calling for it to “ stand shoulder-to-shoulder ” with the US , be prepared to send naval groups to the Persian Gulf or the South China Sea , relax restrictions on arms exports , increase its defence budget and military personnel numbers , resume its commitment to civil nuclear power , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ facilities for the US in Okinawa , Guam , and the Mariana Islands and revise either its constitution or the way it is interpreted so as to facilitate “ collective security.
” 19 Once in office , Abe hastened to Washington to make clear his determination to remain in “ tier-one.
” While continuing to perform Japanese nationalism , thenceforth in essence he negated it , attaching priority to carrying out Japan ’ s obligations to the United States .
In July 2014 Australia ’ s Tony Abbott ( Prime Minister 2013-2015 ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the relationship to the unique category of “ special strategic.
” In 2017 , as the Donald Trump regime took over in Washington , various formulae began to be debated .
In September , Australian Foreign Minister Julie Bishop spoke of an emerging US-India-Japan-Australia “ quadrilateral dialogue ” that would be founded on “ respect for international law and the rules-based order.
” 20 In the post-Cold War disposition Australia cooperated with Japan in US-led “ coalition of the willing ” operations in the Indian Ocean , Iraq and Afghanistan , in UN @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , in US-led South China Sea and Persian Gulf patrols , and in so-called “ UN-patrols ” out of the US Air Force Kadena base in Okinawa to enforce UN-imposed sanctions on North Korea.21 From 2016 the US Marine Corps has been rotating its Pacific forces through northern Australia on a regular basis , effectively adding Darwin to its global empire of bases , a mini-Okinawa .
Australian Air Force crews cooperate in combat drill exercises ( “ Bushido Guardian 19 ” ) with Japan ’ s Self Defence Forces in northern Hokkaido.22 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ contingents of service personnel ) joined the international effort to help combat bush fires in Australia early in 2020.23 In Japan , over its two 21st century terms ( 2006-7 and 2012-2020 ) , Abe ’ s government clung to a subaltern status within the American alliance .
The same of course may be said of Australia , enthusiastic partner in successive US wars , but that calls for closer attention than possible in this short essay .
While on the one hand an unconditional supporter of the Trump agenda , on the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ neo-nationalist posturing and historical revisionism .
Grasping the baton of change of regime in October 2020 , Suga Yoshihide declared that his role as Prime Minister would be to further the Abe agenda , of which he had been principal manager for nearly eight years .
Whatever verbal formula be adopted it was clear that Suga ’ s Japan , like Abe ’ s , would insist on US hegemony and block bilateral or multilateral arrangements that would belittle it .
All four Quad parties insist on their “ respect for international law @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rhetorical rather than the substantive level .
None of the four contemplated calling the United States to order or took exception to its refusal to be bound by any law .
None protested at the US attacks on the International Criminal Court or at US war crimes including torture , assassination and military interventions not authorized by the UN ( and therefore acts of aggression ) .
International law was not to constrain the hegemon but to discipline states that had the temerity to challenge it .
Both Australia and Japan put fidelity @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the law and turned a blind eye to US lawlessness and war-addiction .
In 2020 Secretary of State Mike Pompeo presented the US design to consolidate existing cooperative agreements into “ a true security framework , ” turning the de facto three-sided alliance of today into a four-sided “ Quadrilateral ” or “ Quad.
” 24 India , having dropped out of the project in its first form ( 2007 ) was back , in part at least spurred by the border clashes with China earlier in the year .
The Quad would @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s “ exploitation , corruption , and coercion … in the south , in the East China Sea , the Mekong , the Himalayas , the Taiwan Straits.
” 25 Other US government spokesmen referred to a second tier – countries such as South Korea , New Zealand , and Vietnam – that might constitute junior partners in the contest for “ the soul of the world.
” Japan ’ s Kishi Nobuo and Australia ’ s Linda Reynolds pledged their support for the Pompeo proposal and their commitment to further developing the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and forged through times of shared challenge.
” The awkward , even slightly bizarre , reference to “ shared challenge ” suggested desire on both sides to avoid reference to the hostilities that formerly defined the relationship .
The Australian commitment to the notion of a China-containing , four part “ Quad ” alliance linking it to the United States , Japan and India has been criticized on various grounds , not least the centrality assigned to the United States , but the direction of bilateral Japanese and Australian policy over several decades @ @ @ @ @ @ @ towards an eventual alliance , is rarely questioned.26 There was little surprise when Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison acclaimed Japanese Prime Minister [ 2012-2020 ] Abe as Asia ’ s elder statesman , upon whose “ real wisdom ” he , and Australia , could rely.27 Morrison and his retinue can be expected to continue looking for guidance from the Suga government that took over in Japan in September 2020 , just as Suga in turn can be expected to continue to seek direction from whoever emerges in Washington as president following November @ @ @ @ @ @ @ late November a Joe Biden victory seemed clear , but Donald Trump continued to contest it . )
The prospects for the Quad , however , look uncertain .
The inclusion of South Korea , surely a key country in any Asia-Pacific security frame , only as an afterthought and in an insulting second-tier role under Japan and Australia , was an obvious weakness .
Japan ’ s hostility to the sort of Korean peninsula peace process the Moon government is known to favor , and the bitter wrangling between Japan and Korea @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has made cooperation unlikely .
South Korea ’ s Foreign Minister Kang Kyung-hwa declared that her country “ had no interest in participating in a US-led structural alliance in the Indo-Pacific.
” 28 However , with the announcement that the naval forces of all four Quad states ( the Maritime Self-Defence Force in Japan ’ s case ) were to meet for the first time for war games ( “ Malabar 2020 ” ) in the Indian Ocean in November 2020 , the China containment project was certainly not to be ignored,29 even @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Quad is surely different in character from that of the two US client states of Japan and Australia , and it remains to be seen to what extent it will engage in NATO-like military alliance under United States direction .
The grand “ Arc of Freedom and Prosperity ” originally proposed by Prime Minister Abe in 2007 was to be a community of value , backed by a “ Dietmembers Association for the Promotion of Values Diplomacy.
” However , the rhetoric of “ shared values ” offered no formula for resolving disputes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as continue to complicate relations between Japan and other former combatant countries including Australia .
Few in Australia , for example , could be expected to share the commitment on the Japanese side to the Shinto ( or perhaps “ neo-Shinto ” ) world view even though it is professed by fourteen out of the twenty members of the Suga government ( and by a slightly higher proportion of the Abe government that preceded it ) .30 It was the Shinto belief in the unique and superior character of the Japanese people concentrated @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to war with the world just two generations ago , and those with long memories watched with concern the fusion of politics and religion in the cult-like Shinto events surrounding the shift from Heisei to Reiwa imperial era in 2019 .
What committed Shintoists such as Abe and Suga seemed to find most offensive about the post-war Japanese state was its democratic , citizen-based , anti-militarist qualities and its admission of responsibility for war and crimes of war by the pre-war and wartime state .
To them , reference to the mass abduction @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the so-called “ comfort women ” system , in the 1930s and 1940s , is an intolerable affront .
In January 2007 , when the US House of Representatives adopted Resolution 121 calling on Japan to “ formally acknowledge , apologize , and accept historical responsibility ” for the “ comfort women ” system in Japan-dominated Asia in the 1930s and 1940s , Congress referred to it as “ one of the greatest crimes of human trafficking ” and similar resolutions were adopted by the European Parliament and by the lower houses of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ first called it “ regrettable , ” 31 Then , under mounting international pressure he declared his “ deep-hearted sympathies that ( sic ) the people who had to serve as Comfort Women were placed in extreme hardships ” and “ apologies for the fact that they were placed in that sort of circumstance.
” 32 However , he addressed himself not to the women victims , whom he refused to meet , but to President George W. Bush , standing beside him at Camp David in April 2007 , and his words @ @ @ @ @ @ @ while evading any admission of state responsibility .
The embodiment of the values that Abe and his Shintoist peers want to restore is Kishi Nobusuke , his own grandfather , a key planner of Japan ’ s empire in the 1930s , member of Tojo Hideki ’ s wartime cabinet and for three years an unindicted Class “ A ” war criminal before becoming Prime Minister between 1957 and 1960 .
In other words , while proclaiming democracy , human rights , and rule of law as values supposedly shared with the US @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was simultaneously committed to unique Shinto ( neo-Shinto ) values at odds with basic human rights and the rule of law .
Restoration of the central state role played by Yasukuni shrine in pre-war emperor-centred militarism and fascism is also a cause dear to Japan ’ s contemporary Shintoists .
It is also , however , a sensitive issue for the states that suffered under Japanese colonial rule , and war , dressed as it all then was in Shinto garb .
Abe avoided visiting the shrine while in office in 2006-7 , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ just before resuming office and again in December 2013 , while Prime Minister , drawing a rebuke on this latter occasion to the effect that “ the United States is disappointed that Japan ’ s leadership has taken an action that will exacerbate tensions with Japan ’ s neighbours.
” 33 Smarting , he stayed away from Yasukuni for the remaining seven-plus years of his term of office , presumably to honour a promise reluctantly exacted from him .
No sooner did he resign from office in September 2020 , however , than @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Yasukuni twice in close succession , to “ inform the spirits of his resignation ” as he put it.34 Apart from Shinto , the values that underpin the present-day Japanese state system include , crucially and paradoxically , the denial of its own sovereignty .
The security treaty with the United States ( 1951 , revised 1960 ) is in practice a higher charter than the constitution of Japan .
21st century Japanese politics remains torn by the contradiction between formal institutional democracy and popular sovereignty on the one hand and fidelity to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ State servility towards the US is of course far from being unique to Japan .
What is distinctive , however , is that Japan ’ s basic framework of state was designed and set in place by the US at a time when its occupation forces were running Japan following victory in war ( 1945-1952 ) .
Until the Japanese people regain sovereignty the country can scarcely claim commitment to “ universal ” values .
During the seven years eight months of his second term government Abe slowly modified his earlier pledges to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ comprehensively revise the constitution to reflect the Shintoist , “ beautiful , ” “ new ” and emperor-centred Japan while paying more attention to the agenda prescribed for him in Washington , including unqualified support ( “ 100 % shiji ” ) for the Trump “ America First ” agenda .
Unable to resolve the contradiction between the two , he concentrated instead on widening state prerogatives , circumscribing citizen rights , reinforcing national security , and re-centring the state around the imperial institution and its sustaining Shinto myths of uniqueness and superiority @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fusion , and one which Suga now commits himself to maintaining .
Whether it be headed by Trump or Biden from January 2021 , Washington will certainly encourage such policies of control and submission .
While its Shintoist character is generally reserved for its domestic base , Japan ’ s message for multiple audiences including the United Nations and the US Congress of commitment to universal principles of democracy , human rights and the rule of law is widely accepted .
Nevertheless , there is in Japan itself a noteworthy critical , dissenting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ refer to contemporary Japan as an “ extreme rightist ” country,35 subject to a “ fascism of indifference ” in which the Japanese voters are like frogs in slowly heating fascist water,36 no longer law-governed or democratic but moving towards becoming “ a dark society and a fascist state , ” 37 where a “ fundamental corruption of politics ” spreads through every nook and cranny of Japanese society,38 as it begins the “ steep decline towards civilizational collapse.
” 39 One scholar argues that there is a close correlation between the emperor-centred @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fascist ) Japan and today ’ s US-dominated Japan , both polities absolutist and in time becoming exhausted , plunging Japan into existential crisis.40 While the Japanese state concentrates on maintaining its servile , client state dependence , Japan ’ s civil society struggles on many fronts to transform the polity and to substitute a peace , democracy and human rights-based order for the militarized alliance system .
The Quad , and within it the burgeoning Australia-Japan alliance , is a cause yet to be presented to the Australian ( or , for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , or Indian ) people , but it is a cause that has notable momentum .
Despite the rhetoric of shared commitment to universal values , the Hindu supremacism of India , the neo-Shintoism of Japan or the crude “ America First ” of the Trumpian United States are none of them universal .
As for Japan , it is clear that the three prospective Quad partners have interest in the pacifist Japan of its constitution and instead encourage it to become a fully “ normalized ” military great power that would set @ @ @ @ @ @ @ military posture within the US alliance and multinational coalitions prioritizing the containment of China .
Fourteen years ago , Desmond Ball wrote the following admonition on security relationships .
It remains as apt now , in the context of the emerging Quad , as it was then : “ The security relationship was spawned in secrecy .
It was nurtured and shaped by particular agencies , such as the intelligence organizations and the Navies , and reflects their particular bureaucratic interests and perspectives … It has expanded through accumulation of essentially ad hoc @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
It has never been subject to comprehensive or systematic bureaucratic audit or informed public discussion.
” 41 Note to readers : please click the share buttons above or below .
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Gavan McCormack is emeritus professor of the Australian National University in Canberra , a fellow of the Australian Academy of the Humanities , and a founding editor of The Asia-Pacific Journal : Japan Focus .
1 OECD , “ The Long View : @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” 2 Terashima Jitsuro , “ Noryoku no ressun , ” No 192 , “ Chugoku no kyodaika kyokenka wo seishi suru , Nihon no kakugo , ” Sekai , April 2018 , pp .
42-47 at p. 42 .
3 Graham T. Allison , “ China now the world ’ s largest economy .
We shouldn ’ t be shocked , ” The National Interest , 15 October 2020 .
4 See my Client State : Japan In the American Embrace , London and New York , Verso , 2007 , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Contested Identity , Direction and Role , Folkstone , Kent , Renaissance Press , 2018 .
5 Kimie Hara , ed.
, The San Francisco Treaty and its Legacies : Continuation , Transformation and Historical Reconciliation , London , Routledge , 2014 .
7 For details , McCormack , The State of the Japanese State , op .
cit.. 9 ( Konishi Makoto , “ Nansei shifuto-ka no kyodai yosaito to shite arawashitsutsu Mageshima-Tanegashima , ” 19 August 2020 ) The rate of China ’ s spending increase has been dramatic and uninterrupted @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Japanese Self Defence officer , Konishi Makoto , makes clear .
He calculates that China ’ s military spending to 2020 had grown by 44 times over 30 years , 11 times over 20 years , and 2.4 times over the past decade.
” 11 In a significant but neglected interview with veteran journalist Tawara Soichiro , Abe acknowledged that revision of the wording of the constitution was no longer necessary because Washington was satisfied that the 2015 package had accomplished the necessary change .
( Tawara Soichiro , “ Waga sokatsu – @ @ @ @ @ @ @ January 2020 , 243-251 , at p .
244 . )
12 Motoko Rich , “ Japan ’ s been proudly pacifist for 75 years .
A missile proposal changes that , ” New York Times , 16 August 2020 .
14 See for example reports in The Age , 26 March 1988 and The Australian , 26-27 March 1988 15 Hugh White , “ An Australia-Japan alliance ?
” Strategic and Defence Studies Centre , College of Asia and the Pacific , Australian National University , December 2012 , p. 3 .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ Cooperation , ” Australian Government , Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade , 13 March 2007 , 17 Shinzo Abe , “ Confluence of the Two Seas , ” speech to the parliament of the Republic of India , 22 August 2007 .
18 Park Min-hee , “ The NATO of Asia wallows in the long shadow of Abe , ” Hankyoreh , 30 September 2020 19 Center for Strategic and International Studies ( CSIS ) , “ The Armitage-Nye Report : The US-Japan Alliance : Anchoring Stability in Asia , ” 15 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ surveillance activities by Australia against illicit maritime activities including ship-to-ship transfers , ” Department of Foreign Affairs , 17 September 2020 .
22 “ Japan ’ s first air combat drills with Australia contribute to peace , says Defence Minister Taro Kono , ” Japan Times , 25 September 2019 , This announcement was in the event premature , as a 6.7 quake in the region on 6 September led to their postponement .
23 “ Two SDF planes arrive in Australia to help fight bush fires , ” Japan Times , 16 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ‘ Quad ’ nations vow to step up coordination for free and open Indo-Pacific.
” 27 Quoted in Nakano Koichi , “ The leader who was Trump before Trump , ” New York Times , 29 April 2019 .
29 USNI [ US Naval Institute ] , “ Australia to join US , India , Japan for Malabar 2020 in high end naval exercise of the quad , ” 20 October 2020 .
30 On the extremist religious Nihon Kaigi organization , see my The State of the Japanese State , op .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ For my discussion of these matters , “ Abe days are here again : Japan in the world , ” The Asia-Pacific Journal – Japan Focus , 24 December 2012 .
See also Norimitsu Onishi , “ Call by US House for sex slave apology angers Japan ’ s leader , ” New York Times , 1 August 2007 .
32 Jill Doherty , “ 60 years later , pain still fresh for WWll sex slaves , ” CNN , 29 April 2007 .
33 Embassy of the United States , “ Statement @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 26 visit to Yasukuni Shrine ” 34 On 19 September and 19 October .
“ Kyodo , “ Abe visits war-related Yasukuni Shrine for second straight month , ” Japan Times , 19 October 2020 ) .
36 Soda Kazuhiro [ film-maker and journalist ] , Nekkyo-naki fuashizumu – Nippon no mukanshin o kansatsu suru , Kawade shobo shinsha , 2014 .
Also , “ Nekkyo-naki fuashizumu e no shohosen , ” Sekai , February 2015 , pp 81-95 , at p. 89 .
37 Kimura Akira [ Kagoshima University historian and political @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to Higashi Ajia kyodotai koso – atarashii Ajia gaiko to ampo , kichi seisaku o chushin ni , ” in Kimura Akira and Shindo Eiichi , Okinawa jiritsu to Higashi Ajia kyodotai , Kadensha , 2016 , pp .
202-230 , at p. 230 .

Then and Now
The geopolitical frame of inter-state relationships as it exists today in East Asia remains as set around 70 years ago in the wake of the cataclysmic Second World War and subsequent San Francisco Treaty (1951), when the US was undisputed master of the world, China divided and excluded, Korea divided and at war, Japan divided (Okinawa severed from it) and occupied, and the apparatus of occupation, bases, and US hegemony was unquestioned and seen to be crucial to maintaining regional and global “security.” True, the Soviet Union, and from 1955 the Warsaw Pact alliance system, constituted a second global pole, but both eventually dissolved in 1991, leaving the United States and its hegemonic system supreme.
The economic underpinnings of that system, however, are now rudely shaken. The United States, in 1950, with about half of global GDP, is now 16 per cent (in “purchasing power parity” or PPP terms) and is expected to decline to 12 per cent by 2050, while China, already (2016) 18 per cent, has grown by an astounding fifteen times in the two decades from 1995, and the OECD expects this to continue, to reach about 27 per cent during the 2030s, before slowly declining to around 20 per cent in 2060.”1 Chinese GDP, one-quarter that of Japan’s in 1991, surpassed it in 2001 and trebled (or even quadrupled) it in 2018.2 Late in 2020 the IMF declared that China had become the world’s biggest economy, $24.2 trillion to the US’s $20.8 trillion, with the gap widening.3 The alliance system as a design to preserve US hegemony looks increasingly incongruous.
The shift in relative weight between Japan, the US and China, and the mounting evidence that the two centuries of Anglo-Saxon hegemony on which Japan has staked its future for more than half a century may be coming to an end, challenges Japan. The more that the United States grows feeble and flounders, the more that doubt in Japan spreads as to the wisdom of entrusting the national destiny to a sometime superstate now in evident decline.
Post-1945 leaders from Hirohito (emperor, 1926-1989) to Abe (Prime Minister, 2006-7 and 2012-2020) fudged national sovereignty by adopting submission to the United States as core national policy, becoming its “client state” (or zokkoku).4 Submission to the global super-power sat uneasily with Japanese pride and identity but made some sense on the assumption that the US global dominance of 1951 would continue and that it would maintain a benevolent disposition towards Japan. The provision of a chain of military bases throughout the Japanese archipelago seemed a modest price to pay for Japan’s privileged position within the US-dominated world system.5
Over time the constitutionally pacifist Japan became world no. 8 on the scale of military power, spending around $50 billion annually on weapons and weapons systems.6 Its 247,000-strong military is larger than that of the UK, Germany, or France. It also subsidizes the Pentagon to the tune of almost $7 billion annually (as of 2016)7, providing generous financial support for a major US global military presence (over one hundred bases), from which US troops can be despatched at will to battlefronts from Korea and Vietnam in the 1950s and 1960s and to the Middle East and North Africa since then. It now possesses fighter aircraft, battleships and submarines, even two aircraft carriers (coyly described as a “heli-carriers” being “only” 248 metres-long). And it cooperates with the US not only in “conventional” military programs but also in those designed to establish hegemonic control over space and cyber-space (the Ministry of Defence budgets for a 540-person cyber unit and 70-person space unit from 2021).8
Over the past decade, especially during the second Abe Shinzo government (2012-2020), purchases of US weaponry multiplied, the ban on arms exports was softened and the self-imposed expenditure limit of 1 per cent of GDP dropped (in March 2017). Japan’s air force and navy are already second to none (save the United States itself) in the Western Pacific. That regional superiority has been slowly eroding. Despite Japan steadily increasing its military spending under the Abe government, by 2020 it amounted to just 5,688 trillion yen, or about one-quarter of China’s (20,288 trillion yen equivalent).9 Japan’s ruling Liberal-Democratic Party now calls on government to double defence expenditure to reach the NATO (nominal) level of 2 per cent of GDP.10 There can be no good outcome if East Asia’s two great powers continue to seek military advantage.
Japan under Abe Shinzo de facto revised the constitution by the adoption in 2015 of legislation making possible recourse to war in support of an ally.11 One of the most recent initiatives of the Abe government was to initiate moves towards acquiring weapons capable of striking missile launch sites in enemy territory “if an attack seemed imminent.”12 It would be hard to imagine any more egregious breach of the constitution’s Article 9 peace clause than such legitimation of pre-emptive attack.
No country has served the Trump cause so unconditionally and uncritically as Japan over these past three and a half years, with Abe Shinzo a favoured golf companion, phone buddy, customer for US arms sales, and “100 per cent supporter” of Trumpian “America-First” policies. Prior to the US presidential election of 2016, Japan had been close to the Hillary Clinton camp, but from the moment of the Trump triumph it shifted quickly. As the Trump-Biden contest approached resolution late in 2020, the Government of Japan was undoubtedly working to adjust once again. But there were also larger schemes afoot. Might it be time for a comprehensive rejigging of the alliance system?
Two? Three? Four? Or More?
Paid much less attention than it warrants, the Japan-Australia relationship has for decades been steadily evolving in the direction of comprehensive cooperation and alliance. The two US-tied, sometime bitter enemies and Western Pacific powers now appear to grow close. Without debate, and almost it seems without publicity, the two seek to tighten their exclusive bilateral security relations with the US by making them trilateral, or quadrilateral, building a multinational NATO-esque military alliance to shore up US hegemony in the Asia-Pacific region. The vision originally associated with Vice President Dick Cheney (under George W. Bush, president 2001-2009) of an “Arc of Freedom and Prosperity” encircling and constraining China has become widely accepted in Japanese and Australian defence circles and the bilateral defence relationship an increasingly institutionalized and regular part of it.
Australia normalized commercial relations with Japan in 1957, upgraded the relationship to one of amity in 1977. Promoted by governments and oppositions alike since then, it has flourished. Labour’s Prime Minister (Bob) Hawke [Prime Minister 1983-1991] told members of parliament in Tokyo in 1990 that Japan should become “more forthcoming, more creative, more outspoken than it has been in the past,” and that:
“… the days are gone when Japan’s international political influence can or should lag far behind its economic strength and economic interests. The power of your economy, strength of your democracy, the talents of your people, entitle you to a place of leadership as a right.”13
Notable in the Hawke view, and similarly articulated by subsequent Australian government heads, is the absence of any reference to Japan’s peace constitution. It appeared to be taken for granted that Japan, although a constitutional peace state, should continue on the path to becoming a military great power within the framework of an expanded US-Japan-Australia (-India?) alliance. Japan’s constitutional proscription is generally seen in Australia as an obstacle to be overcome rather than an aspiration to be declared to the world.
John Howard, Prime Minister from 1996 to 2007, went on record even before he took office as favouring a tripartite defence relationship involving Australia, the US, and Japan, with Japan becoming a major regional military force.14 He was even willing to sign a full-scale alliance treaty.15 Vice-President Dick Cheney, on his February 2007 visit to Australia and Japan urged cooperation on both governments, especially the reinforcing of links between Japan’s Self-Defence Force and the Australian Defence Force, within the general frame of a geostrategic arc of containment of China, stretching from Japan to Australia and beyond to India. In Tokyo in March 2007, Howard signed with his Japanese counterpart a “Joint Declaration on Security Cooperation” that endorsed their shared “democratic values, a commitment to human rights, freedom and the rule of law.”16 Abe suggested to George W. Bush the formation of an Asia-Pacific Democratic League or “Strategic Dialogue” linking the arc of four, and spoke in essentially the same vein, with some eloquence, when addressing the Indian parliament in August 2007.17 High-level (“Two Plus Two” [Foreign and Defence Ministerial]) meetings between Australia and Japan began in 2007 and have continued. However, the 2007 idea of a four-part alliance went no further at that time as India lost interest, ill-health forced Abe’s resignation, and political change in Australia saw the advent of a Kevin Rudd government (2007-2010) keen to improve relations with China.18
The agenda for Abe Shinzo’s second term, (December 2012 to September 2020) was laid down just months before he resumed Prime Ministerial office in December 2012. The (US) Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) admonished Japan to think carefully about what would be required if it wanted to remain a “tier-one” nation, calling for it to “stand shoulder-to-shoulder” with the US, be prepared to send naval groups to the Persian Gulf or the South China Sea, relax restrictions on arms exports, increase its defence budget and military personnel numbers, resume its commitment to civil nuclear power, press ahead with construction of new base facilities for the US in Okinawa, Guam, and the Mariana Islands and revise either its constitution or the way it is interpreted so as to facilitate “collective security.” 19 Once in office, Abe hastened to Washington to make clear his determination to remain in “tier-one.” While continuing to perform Japanese nationalism, thenceforth in essence he negated it, attaching priority to carrying out Japan’s obligations to the United States.
In July 2014 Australia’s Tony Abbott (Prime Minister 2013-2015) and Japan’s Abe Shinzo upgraded the relationship to the unique category of “special strategic.” In 2017, as the Donald Trump regime took over in Washington, various formulae began to be debated. In September, Australian Foreign Minister Julie Bishop spoke of an emerging US-India-Japan-Australia “quadrilateral dialogue” that would be founded on “respect for international law and the rules-based order.”20
In the post-Cold War disposition Australia cooperated with Japan in US-led “coalition of the willing” operations in the Indian Ocean, Iraq and Afghanistan, in UN peace-keeping operations in Cambodia and East Timor, in US-led South China Sea and Persian Gulf patrols, and in so-called “UN-patrols” out of the US Air Force Kadena base in Okinawa to enforce UN-imposed sanctions on North Korea.21 From 2016 the US Marine Corps has been rotating its Pacific forces through northern Australia on a regular basis, effectively adding Darwin to its global empire of bases, a mini-Okinawa. Australian Air Force crews cooperate in combat drill exercises (“Bushido Guardian 19”) with Japan’s Self Defence Forces in northern Hokkaido.22 Two Self-Defence Force planes (and small contingents of service personnel) joined the international effort to help combat bush fires in Australia early in 2020.23
In Japan, over its two 21st century terms (2006-7 and 2012-2020), Abe’s government clung to a subaltern status within the American alliance. The same of course may be said of Australia, enthusiastic partner in successive US wars, but that calls for closer attention than possible in this short essay.
While on the one hand an unconditional supporter of the Trump agenda, on the other Abe was a strong proponent of neo-nationalist posturing and historical revisionism. Grasping the baton of change of regime in October 2020, Suga Yoshihide declared that his role as Prime Minister would be to further the Abe agenda, of which he had been principal manager for nearly eight years. Whatever verbal formula be adopted it was clear that Suga’s Japan, like Abe’s, would insist on US hegemony and block bilateral or multilateral arrangements that would belittle it.
All four Quad parties insist on their “respect for international law,” but it functions at the rhetorical rather than the substantive level. None of the four contemplated calling the United States to order or took exception to its refusal to be bound by any law. None protested at the US attacks on the International Criminal Court or at US war crimes including torture, assassination and military interventions not authorized by the UN (and therefore acts of aggression). International law was not to constrain the hegemon but to discipline states that had the temerity to challenge it. Both Australia and Japan put fidelity to the US above any adherence to the law and turned a blind eye to US lawlessness and war-addiction.
Pulling the Strings: Pompeo 2020
In 2020 Secretary of State Mike Pompeo presented the US design to consolidate existing cooperative agreements into “a true security framework,” turning the de facto three-sided alliance of today into a four-sided “Quadrilateral” or “Quad.”24 India, having dropped out of the project in its first form (2007) was back, in part at least spurred by the border clashes with China earlier in the year. The Quad would stand against the Chinese Communist Party’s “exploitation, corruption, and coercion … in the south, in the East China Sea, the Mekong, the Himalayas, the Taiwan Straits.”25 Other US government spokesmen referred to a second tier – countries such as South Korea, New Zealand, and Vietnam – that might constitute junior partners in the contest for “the soul of the world.”
Japan’s Kishi Nobuo and Australia’s Linda Reynolds pledged their support for the Pompeo proposal and their commitment to further developing the defense relationship “based on shared values and forged through times of shared challenge.” The awkward, even slightly bizarre, reference to “shared challenge” suggested desire on both sides to avoid reference to the hostilities that formerly defined the relationship.
The Australian commitment to the notion of a China-containing, four part “Quad” alliance linking it to the United States, Japan and India has been criticized on various grounds, not least the centrality assigned to the United States, but the direction of bilateral Japanese and Australian policy over several decades towards deeper and closer links, heading towards an eventual alliance, is rarely questioned.26 There was little surprise when Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison acclaimed Japanese Prime Minister [2012-2020] Abe as Asia’s elder statesman, upon whose “real wisdom” he, and Australia, could rely.27 Morrison and his retinue can be expected to continue looking for guidance from the Suga government that took over in Japan in September 2020, just as Suga in turn can be expected to continue to seek direction from whoever emerges in Washington as president following November’s election.(As of late November a Joe Biden victory seemed clear, but Donald Trump continued to contest it.)
The prospects for the Quad, however, look uncertain. The inclusion of South Korea, surely a key country in any Asia-Pacific security frame, only as an afterthought and in an insulting second-tier role under Japan and Australia, was an obvious weakness. Japan’s hostility to the sort of Korean peninsula peace process the Moon government is known to favor, and the bitter wrangling between Japan and Korea over historical and war memory issues, has made cooperation unlikely. South Korea’s Foreign Minister Kang Kyung-hwa declared that her country “had no interest in participating in a US-led structural alliance in the Indo-Pacific.”28
However, with the announcement that the naval forces of all four Quad states (the Maritime Self-Defence Force in Japan’s case) were to meet for the first time for war games (“Malabar 2020”) in the Indian Ocean in November 2020, the China containment project was certainly not to be ignored,29 even if India’s membership of the Quad is surely different in character from that of the two US client states of Japan and Australia, and it remains to be seen to what extent it will engage in NATO-like military alliance under United States direction.
“Values”
The grand “Arc of Freedom and Prosperity” originally proposed by Prime Minister Abe in 2007 was to be a community of value, backed by a “Dietmembers Association for the Promotion of Values Diplomacy.” However, the rhetoric of “shared values” offered no formula for resolving disputes over memory, identity and history such as continue to complicate relations between Japan and other former combatant countries including Australia. Few in Australia, for example, could be expected to share the commitment on the Japanese side to the Shinto (or perhaps “neo-Shinto”) world view even though it is professed by fourteen out of the twenty members of the Suga government (and by a slightly higher proportion of the Abe government that preceded it).30 It was the Shinto belief in the unique and superior character of the Japanese people concentrated in the emperor for which Japan went to war with the world just two generations ago, and those with long memories watched with concern the fusion of politics and religion in the cult-like Shinto events surrounding the shift from Heisei to Reiwa imperial era in 2019.
What committed Shintoists such as Abe and Suga seemed to find most offensive about the post-war Japanese state was its democratic, citizen-based, anti-militarist qualities and its admission of responsibility for war and crimes of war by the pre-war and wartime state. To them, reference to the mass abduction and rape of women throughout Asia, the so-called “comfort women” system, in the 1930s and 1940s, is an intolerable affront. In January 2007, when the US House of Representatives adopted Resolution 121 calling on Japan to “formally acknowledge, apologize, and accept historical responsibility” for the “comfort women” system in Japan-dominated Asia in the 1930s and 1940s, Congress referred to it as “one of the greatest crimes of human trafficking” and similar resolutions were adopted by the European Parliament and by the lower houses of the Dutch and Canadian parliaments, Abe first called it “regrettable,”31 Then, under mounting international pressure he declared his “deep-hearted sympathies that (sic) the people who had to serve as Comfort Women were placed in extreme hardships” and “apologies for the fact that they were placed in that sort of circumstance.”32 However, he addressed himself not to the women victims, whom he refused to meet, but to President George W. Bush, standing beside him at Camp David in April 2007, and his words were carefully chosen to satisfy US demands while evading any admission of state responsibility.
The embodiment of the values that Abe and his Shintoist peers want to restore is Kishi Nobusuke, his own grandfather, a key planner of Japan’s empire in the 1930s, member of Tojo Hideki’s wartime cabinet and for three years an unindicted Class “A” war criminal before becoming Prime Minister between 1957 and 1960. In other words, while proclaiming democracy, human rights, and rule of law as values supposedly shared with the US, Australia, and India, Abe was simultaneously committed to unique Shinto (neo-Shinto) values at odds with basic human rights and the rule of law.
Restoration of the central state role played by Yasukuni shrine in pre-war emperor-centred militarism and fascism is also a cause dear to Japan’s contemporary Shintoists. It is also, however, a sensitive issue for the states that suffered under Japanese colonial rule, and war, dressed as it all then was in Shinto garb. Abe avoided visiting the shrine while in office in 2006-7, but revisited on 15 August 2012, just before resuming office and again in December 2013, while Prime Minister, drawing a rebuke on this latter occasion to the effect that “the United States is disappointed that Japan’s leadership has taken an action that will exacerbate tensions with Japan’s neighbours.”33 Smarting, he stayed away from Yasukuni for the remaining seven-plus years of his term of office, presumably to honour a promise reluctantly exacted from him. No sooner did he resign from office in September 2020, however, than he made up for it by visiting Yasukuni twice in close succession, to “inform the spirits of his resignation” as he put it.34
Apart from Shinto, the values that underpin the present-day Japanese state system include, crucially and paradoxically, the denial of its own sovereignty. The security treaty with the United States (1951, revised 1960) is in practice a higher charter than the constitution of Japan. 21st century Japanese politics remains torn by the contradiction between formal institutional democracy and popular sovereignty on the one hand and fidelity to the US on the other. Client State servility towards the US is of course far from being unique to Japan. What is distinctive, however, is that Japan’s basic framework of state was designed and set in place by the US at a time when its occupation forces were running Japan following victory in war (1945-1952). Until the Japanese people regain sovereignty the country can scarcely claim commitment to “universal” values.
Conclusion
During the seven years eight months of his second term government Abe slowly modified his earlier pledges to liquidate the post-war, American-granted regime and comprehensively revise the constitution to reflect the Shintoist, “beautiful,” “new” and emperor-centred Japan while paying more attention to the agenda prescribed for him in Washington, including unqualified support (“100% shiji”) for the Trump “America First” agenda. Unable to resolve the contradiction between the two, he concentrated instead on widening state prerogatives, circumscribing citizen rights, reinforcing national security, and re-centring the state around the imperial institution and its sustaining Shinto myths of uniqueness and superiority. It was an awkward and improbable fusion, and one which Suga now commits himself to maintaining. Whether it be headed by Trump or Biden from January 2021, Washington will certainly encourage such policies of control and submission.
While its Shintoist character is generally reserved for its domestic base, Japan’s message for multiple audiences including the United Nations and the US Congress of commitment to universal principles of democracy, human rights and the rule of law is widely accepted. Nevertheless, there is in Japan itself a noteworthy critical, dissenting view. Prominent public intellectuals and activists refer to contemporary Japan as an “extreme rightist” country,35 subject to a “fascism of indifference” in which the Japanese voters are like frogs in slowly heating fascist water,36 no longer law-governed or democratic but moving towards becoming “a dark society and a fascist state,”37 where a “fundamental corruption of politics” spreads through every nook and cranny of Japanese society,38 as it begins the “steep decline towards civilizational collapse.”39 One scholar argues that there is a close correlation between the emperor-centred Kokutai or national polity of pre-war (fascist) Japan and today’s US-dominated Japan, both polities absolutist and in time becoming exhausted, plunging Japan into existential crisis.40 While the Japanese state concentrates on maintaining its servile, client state dependence, Japan’s civil society struggles on many fronts to transform the polity and to substitute a peace, democracy and human rights-based order for the militarized alliance system.
The Quad, and within it the burgeoning Australia-Japan alliance, is a cause yet to be presented to the Australian (or, for that matter, the Japanese, American, or Indian) people, but it is a cause that has notable momentum. Despite the rhetoric of shared commitment to universal values, the Hindu supremacism of India, the neo-Shintoism of Japan or the crude “America First” of the Trumpian United States are none of them universal. As for Japan, it is clear that the three prospective Quad partners have interest in the pacifist Japan of its constitution and instead encourage it to become a fully “normalized” military great power that would set aside its inhibitions and adopt a leading military posture within the US alliance and multinational coalitions prioritizing the containment of China. Fourteen years ago, Desmond Ball wrote the following admonition on security relationships. It remains as apt now, in the context of the emerging Quad, as it was then:
“The security relationship was spawned in secrecy. It was nurtured and shaped by particular agencies, such as the intelligence organizations and the Navies, and reflects their particular bureaucratic interests and perspectives … It has expanded through accumulation of essentially ad hoc responses to different global and regional developments. It has never been subject to comprehensive or systematic bureaucratic audit or informed public discussion.”41
Let that “informed public discussion” begin.
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Gavan McCormack is emeritus professor of the Australian National University in Canberra, a fellow of the Australian Academy of the Humanities, and a founding editor of The Asia-Pacific Journal: Japan Focus.
Notes
1 OECD, “The Long View: Scenarios for the World Economy to 2060”
2 Terashima Jitsuro, “Noryoku no ressun,” No 192, “Chugoku no kyodaika kyokenka wo seishi suru, Nihon no kakugo,” Sekai, April 2018, pp. 42-47 at p. 42.
3 Graham T. Allison, “China now the world’s largest economy. We shouldn’t be shocked,” The National Interest, 15 October 2020.
4 See my Client State: Japan In the American Embrace, London and New York, Verso, 2007, and The State of the Japanese State: Contested Identity, Direction and Role, Folkstone, Kent, Renaissance Press, 2018.
5 Kimie Hara, ed., The San Francisco Treaty and its Legacies: Continuation, Transformation and Historical Reconciliation, London, Routledge, 2014.
6 “Japan’s military seeks $52 billion budget,” The Defense Post. 30 September 2020.
7 For details, McCormack, The State of the Japanese State, op. cit..
8 “Japan’s military.” op. cit.
9 (Konishi Makoto, “Nansei shifuto-ka no kyodai yosaito to shite arawashitsutsu Mageshima-Tanegashima,” 19 August 2020) The rate of China’s spending increase has been dramatic and uninterrupted, as military affairs critic and former Japanese Self Defence officer, Konishi Makoto, makes clear. He calculates that China’s military spending to 2020 had grown by 44 times over 30 years, 11 times over 20 years, and 2.4 times over the past decade.”
10 “Boeiho ‘tai-GDP 2%’ meiki, jimin boei daiko teigen no zenyo hanmei,” Sankei shimbun, 25 May 2018.
11 In a significant but neglected interview with veteran journalist Tawara Soichiro, Abe acknowledged that revision of the wording of the constitution was no longer necessary because Washington was satisfied that the 2015 package had accomplished the necessary change. (Tawara Soichiro, “Waga sokatsu – taikenteki sengo media-shi,” Sekai, January 2020, 243-251, at p. 244.)
12 Motoko Rich, “Japan’s been proudly pacifist for 75 years. A missile proposal changes that,” New York Times, 16 August 2020.
13 Transcript, speech of 19 September 1990, ANA Hotel, Tokyo, and media reports.
14 See for example reports in The Age, 26 March 1988 and The Australian, 26-27 March 1988
15 Hugh White, “An Australia-Japan alliance?” Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, College of Asia and the Pacific, Australian National University, December 2012, p. 3.
16 “Australia-Japan Joint Declaration on Security Cooperation,” Australian Government, Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, 13 March 2007,
17 Shinzo Abe, “Confluence of the Two Seas,” speech to the parliament of the Republic of India, 22 August 2007.
18 Park Min-hee, “The NATO of Asia wallows in the long shadow of Abe,” Hankyoreh, 30 September 2020
19 Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), “The Armitage-Nye Report: The US-Japan Alliance: Anchoring Stability in Asia,” 15 August 2012.
20 David Wroe, “Australia weighs closer regional four-way ties,” Sydney Morning Herald, 1 September 2017.
21 “Monitoring and surveillance activities by Australia against illicit maritime activities including ship-to-ship transfers,” Department of Foreign Affairs, 17 September 2020.
22 “Japan’s first air combat drills with Australia contribute to peace, says Defence Minister Taro Kono,” Japan Times, 25 September 2019, This announcement was in the event premature, as a 6.7 quake in the region on 6 September led to their postponement.
23 “Two SDF planes arrive in Australia to help fight bush fires,” Japan Times, 16 January 2020.
24 David Crows, “PM sharpens resistance to ‘negative globalism’,” Sydney Morning Herald, 4 October 2019
25 Kyodo, “‘Quad’ nations vow to step up coordination for free and open Indo-Pacific.”
26 Australian Government, Department of Defence, “2020 Japan-Australia Defense Ministers Kishi/Reynolds Joint Statement on Advancing Defence Cooperation,” 19 October 2020.
27 Quoted in Nakano Koichi, “The leader who was Trump before Trump,” New York Times, 29 April 2019.
28 Anthony V Rinna, “Securing an ‘Asian NATO’ or destabilizing Korea relations?” East Asia Forum, 25 October 2020.
29 USNI [US Naval Institute], “Australia to join US, India, Japan for Malabar 2020 in high end naval exercise of the quad,” 20 October 2020.
30 On the extremist religious Nihon Kaigi organization, see my The State of the Japanese State, op. cit., pp. 29-31.
31 For my discussion of these matters, “Abe days are here again: Japan in the world,” The Asia-Pacific Journal – Japan Focus, 24 December 2012. See also Norimitsu Onishi, “Call by US House for sex slave apology angers Japan’s leader,” New York Times, 1 August 2007.
32 Jill Doherty, “60 years later, pain still fresh for WWll sex slaves,” CNN, 29 April 2007.
33 Embassy of the United States, “Statement on Prime Minister Abe’s December 26 visit to Yasukuni Shrine”
34 On 19 September and 19 October. “Kyodo, “Abe visits war-related Yasukuni Shrine for second straight month,” Japan Times, 19 October 2020).
35 Takahashi Tetsuya [Tokyo University philosopher], “Kyokuu ka suru seiji,” Sekai, January 2015, pp. 150-161.
36 Soda Kazuhiro [film-maker and journalist], Nekkyo-naki fuashizumu – Nippon no mukanshin o kansatsu suru, Kawade shobo shinsha, 2014. Also, “Nekkyo-naki fuashizumu e no shohosen,” Sekai, February 2015, pp 81-95, at p. 89.
37 Kimura Akira [Kagoshima University historian and political scientist], “Hatoyama seiken hokai to Higashi Ajia kyodotai koso – atarashii Ajia gaiko to ampo, kichi seisaku o chushin ni,” in Kimura Akira and Shindo Eiichi, Okinawa jiritsu to Higashi Ajia kyodotai, Kadensha, 2016, pp. 202-230, at p. 230.
38 Yamaguchi Izumi [author], “Matsurowanu kuni kara no tegami,” Ryukyu shimpo, 21 October 2016.
39 Yamaguchi Jiro [Hosei University political scientist], “Bunmei no owari?” Tokyo shimbun, 22 May 2016.
40 Shirai Satoshi [Kyoto Seika University historian/political scientist], Kokutairon – Kiku to Seijoki, Tokyo: Shueisha shinsho (2018).
41 Desmond Ball, “Whither the Japan-Australia security relationship?“, APSNet Policy Forum, September 21, 2006.
Featured image: U.S. Navy photo by Photographer’s Mate 2nd Class Jayme Pastoric (RELEASED)


asiapacificresearch--2020-11-18--China Launching State Rival to Elon Musk’s SpaceX

China ’ s state-owned telecommunications carriers plan to launch as many as 10,000 satellites in the next five to ten years to form a constellation in low-Earth orbit and keep pace with US rivals .
Chinese cadres overseeing space technologies were reputedly jolted by space entrepreneur Elon Musk ’ s recent assertion that with 775 satellites up and running in orbit his SpaceX company had leapfrogged NASA as the world ’ s largest satellite operator .
Musk made the claim when as many as 60 American satellites for SpaceX ’ s Starlink high-speed global Internet access project were launched last @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rocket .
In comparison , China currently has just 432 satellites in orbit , according to space exploration data cruncher n2yo.com .
Now , Beijing is thus ratcheting up its push to launch more satellites for a Chinese “ StarNet ” project before the United States and private firms like SpaceX fill the entire lower orbital space .
Chinese President Xi Jinping signed off on the new five-year 2025 space exploration program earlier this year .
The masterplan will pool state-owned enterprises and private entities and aims to keep pace with the US @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to launch satellites and other spacecraft .
China Newsweek , a publication run by the official China News Service , reported in October that China Telecom ’ s satellite communications arm had kickstarted an ambitious launch plan for 10,000 satellites in the next five to ten years .
The magazine cited Ministry of Industry and Information Technology sources as saying that a giant state enterprise would soon be formed in Shanghai to coalesce efforts , resources and assets under a sole operator of China ’ s future satellite communications network , tentatively to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ communications technologies also featured in Beijing ’ s latest initiative to speed up infrastructure developments , which was unveiled by the State Council in April to spur the then-Covid-battered economy and internal demand .
At the same time , there is reportedly dissent among policy advisors about whether StarNet and its related launches are really needed now that 4G and 5G networks operated by China Telecom , China Mobile and China Unicom cover most big cities and even more sparsely populated regions like Tibet , Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia .
Xinhua quoted experts @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s proposed version of Starlink .
They said SpaceX could be expected to recoup its hefty investments from its growing user base across America ’ s agrarian states , where cellular coverage is still lacking .
In comparison , they said , China ’ s ground-based telecommunications infrastructure was well developed and accessible throughout the nation thanks to Beijing ’ s no-village-left-behind drive to expand telecom services .
Top policymakers have so far brushed aside those commercial objections , which have apparently taken a back seat to Beijing ’ s broader drive @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and related resources .
Xie Tao , CEO of Commsat , a Beijing-based private satellite Internet service provider and a contractor of China Telecom , told reporters that China must move quickly as operational satellites and those scheduled to launch would soon fill the low-Earth orbit ’ s reported capacity of 100,000 birds .
“ Space in the orbit is allocated on a first-come , first-served basis and the onus will be on these latecomers to ensure their satellites will not collide with existing ones , ” Xie said .
“ The low-Earth @ @ @ @ @ @ @ space land grab is on.
” “ Frequency and bandwidth resources are getting even more scarce as there is a rush by countries and private firms to file applications with the United Nations ’ International Telecommunication Union for new frequencies , ” said Xie , who added that China could not afford to be a laggard in the scramble for orbit and frequency resources .
Xie said that when China ’ s StarNet becomes operational , China Telecom could consider decommissioning its base stations scattered across China ’ s far western regions , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to slash service costs .
China Telecom ’ s chief technology officer Bi Qi told China News Service that the optimal download speed of satellite Internet could hit 1.5 gigabytes per second and the unit cost of data transmission could be lowered to 4G levels .
China Telecom ’ s public relations department and Commsat declined to comment on Asia Times ’ request for comment on reports that other state-owned telecoms carriers are also partners in the StarNet project .
They also declined to comment on hints in the PLA Daily ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ some of its satellite technologies to help build a Chinese version of Elon Musk ’ s Starlink .
Note to readers : please click the share buttons above or below .
Forward this article to your email lists .
Crosspost on your blog site , internet forums .
etc .

China’s state-owned telecommunications carriers plan to launch as many as 10,000 satellites in the next five to ten years to form a constellation in low-Earth orbit and keep pace with US rivals.
Chinese cadres overseeing space technologies were reputedly jolted by space entrepreneur Elon Musk’s recent assertion that with 775 satellites up and running in orbit his SpaceX company had leapfrogged NASA as the world’s largest satellite operator.
Musk made the claim when as many as 60 American satellites for SpaceX’s Starlink high-speed global Internet access project were launched last month from his company’s Falcon-9 rocket.
In comparison, China currently has just 432 satellites in orbit, according to space exploration data cruncher n2yo.com.
Now, Beijing is thus ratcheting up its push to launch more satellites for a Chinese “StarNet” project before the United States and private firms like SpaceX fill the entire lower orbital space.
Chinese President Xi Jinping signed off on the new five-year 2025 space exploration program earlier this year. The masterplan will pool state-owned enterprises and private entities and aims to keep pace with the US and SpaceX in a budding new race to launch satellites and other spacecraft.
China Newsweek, a publication run by the official China News Service, reported in October that China Telecom’s satellite communications arm had kickstarted an ambitious launch plan for 10,000 satellites in the next five to ten years.
The magazine cited Ministry of Industry and Information Technology sources as saying that a giant state enterprise would soon be formed in Shanghai to coalesce efforts, resources and assets under a sole operator of China’s future satellite communications network, tentatively to be named China StarNet.
New satellite communications technologies also featured in Beijing’s latest initiative to speed up infrastructure developments, which was unveiled by the State Council in April to spur the then-Covid-battered economy and internal demand.
At the same time, there is reportedly dissent among policy advisors about whether StarNet and its related launches are really needed now that 4G and 5G networks operated by China Telecom, China Mobile and China Unicom cover most big cities and even more sparsely populated regions like Tibet, Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia.
Xinhua quoted experts who doubted the commercial viability of China’s proposed version of Starlink. They said SpaceX could be expected to recoup its hefty investments from its growing user base across America’s agrarian states, where cellular coverage is still lacking.
In comparison, they said, China’s ground-based telecommunications infrastructure was well developed and accessible throughout the nation thanks to Beijing’s no-village-left-behind drive to expand telecom services.
Top policymakers have so far brushed aside those commercial objections, which have apparently taken a back seat to Beijing’s broader drive to stake its claim to space territory and related resources.
Xie Tao, CEO of Commsat, a Beijing-based private satellite Internet service provider and a contractor of China Telecom, told reporters that China must move quickly as operational satellites and those scheduled to launch would soon fill the low-Earth orbit’s reported capacity of 100,000 birds.
A Commsat satellite launch, August 6, 2016. Image: Twitter
“Space in the orbit is allocated on a first-come, first-served basis and the onus will be on these latecomers to ensure their satellites will not collide with existing ones,” Xie said. “The low-Earth orbit is becoming increasingly crowded and the space land grab is on.”
“Frequency and bandwidth resources are getting even more scarce as there is a rush by countries and private firms to file applications with the United Nations’ International Telecommunication Union for new frequencies,” said Xie, who added that China could not afford to be a laggard in the scramble for orbit and frequency resources.
Xie said that when China’s StarNet becomes operational, China Telecom could consider decommissioning its base stations scattered across China’s far western regions, particularly those situated in depopulated areas, to slash service costs.
China Telecom’s chief technology officer Bi Qi told China News Service that the optimal download speed of satellite Internet could hit 1.5 gigabytes per second and the unit cost of data transmission could be lowered to 4G levels.
China Telecom’s public relations department and Commsat declined to comment on Asia Times’ request for comment on reports that other state-owned telecoms carriers are also partners in the StarNet project.
They also declined to comment on hints in the PLA Daily’s WeChat account that the military could transfer some of its satellite technologies to help build a Chinese version of Elon Musk’s Starlink.
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