theduran--2020-01-07--How Iran Can Checkmate Trump

How Iran Can Checkmate Trump

On Sunday morning 5 January 2020 , the great investigative journalist and geostrategist Bernhard Horstmann headlined “ Iraqi Parliament Expels Foreign Militaries From Iraq ” and he reported that not only the parliament but also the nation ’ s Prime Minister ( Abdel Mahdi ) are demanding departure from Iraq of all foreign military forces , and that Iraq will now — as UAE ’ s The National puts it — “ lodge an official complaint against the US at the UN.
” The complaint will “ condemn # US airstrikes on # Iraqi soil targeting Iraqi soldiers and both @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Horstmann , a progressive German who despises fascists ( such as Trump ) , makes abundantly clear that “ Without any bases in Iraq the U.S. position in Syria will become untenable.
” He quotes another respected geostrategist , Elijah Magnier , saying , “ # QassemSoleimani managed to reach with his death what he couldn ’ t reach when he was alive .
That is his last spectacular act for Iran and for the ‘ Axis of the Resistance ’ : legislation forcing the US to withdraw and cease all kind of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tracked the accuracy of predictions of both Horstmann and Magnier , have shown Horstmann ’ s to have an even higher ( virtually 100 % ) rate of having proven accurate than Magnier ’ s do ; and , consequently , Horstmann ’ s quoting this from Magnier makes it Horstman ’ s prediction also , and not only Magnier ’ s .
This adds weight to it .
Consequently , the U.S. regime ’ s long war against Iran , which started by its successful coup in 1953 overthrowing Iran ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Government by a barbaric dictatorship which lasted until 1979 and which American billionaires even up to the present time can not tolerate having been overthrown by the Iranian people in 1979 , does finally appear likely to end , with the fascist imperialist U.S. regime ’ s humiliating defeat , one way or another , but not necessarily quickly .
There is a clear danger in this act [ by Iraq ’ s Government , expelling all U.S. forces ] .
The Trump administration is now likely to see Iraq as completely in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and never will be true but that is how it will be seen .
The U.S. may therefore again start to pay ( with Saudi money ? )
Sunni extremists , i.e .
ISIS , to change the current situation to its advantage .
That is one reason why I recommend to Iraq to invite Russia to train its army .
However , here I respectfully diverge from Horstmann ’ s view .
While I do favor Iraq ’ s becoming allied with Russia — the nation that America ’ s Government has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ( when the U.S. Government became taken over by America ’ s Deep State or aristocracy ) to conquer — I believe that immediately is not the best time to do this .
My sense of the situation is that Trump has already trapped himself here , and that if only Iran will refrain from fulfilling anytime soon its threats to retaliate , then Trump will become forced by circumstances to accept a settlement on Iran ’ s terms .
Consequently , any public action by Russia right now would serve only to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , as they customarily do , via their agents and fronts ) yet another opportunity to call Russia ‘ an enemy of America ’ and thereby to distract the global public from the blatant , sheer , and unalloyed , evil , of Trump ’ s constant efforts to crush Iran — a nation that never invaded nor even threatened to invade America .
Furthermore , Iraq ’ s leadership have probably already been advised by Russia to refrain from publicly seeking alliance with Russia at the present stage ; and , so @ @ @ @ @ @ @ such request by Iraq will be made at this time .
If Iraq requests it now and Russia does not favorably respond , that would only weaken both Iraq and Russia ; so , I do not expect it to happen .
Not yet .
Timing is almost everything .
On 18 November 2019 , Russia ’ s Sputnik News bannered “ Russia Ready to Deliver Arms to Iran After Int ’ l Sanctions Lifted — Defence Cooperation Body ” , and this obviously means that Russia doesn ’ t want to come @ @ @ @ @ @ @ unless and until the U.S. regime has cancelled its sanctions against Iran .
Putin is an extremely intelligent man ; he understands timing .
Trump ’ s 3 January 2020 assassination of Iran ’ s # 2 leader is an overt ( by means of that action ) declaration of war by him against Iran ; and , so , Russia clearly can see that if Russia overtly comes out as being allied with Iran against the United States , then the conflict between U.S. and Iran would immediately be also a conflict @ @ @ @ @ @ @ an even higher level of adversariality than since 30 September 2015 ( when Russia started bombing America ’ s and Saudi Arabia ’ s hired boots-on-the-ground fighters — led by Al Qaeda in Syria — who were trying to overthrow Syria ’ s secular Government ) has existed regarding the war in Syria .
It would be wrong for Russia , until U.S. troops are already gone from Iraq .
Russia ’ s strategy has always been to delay World War III until all other means of pacifying America ’ s cravenous aristocracy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ t happened yet .
If Russia will be coming out publicly in favor of Iran against the U.S. regime , then that would be just one step away from a direct hot war with the United States , which would produce global nuclear annihilation .
Obviously , Russia won ’ t yet do that .
Forcing Trump either to become publicly humiliated by backing down , or else for him to destroy the planet within less than an hour by means of WW III , isn ’ t necessary now , though could @ @ @ @ @ @ @ enough to refuse to comply with Iraq ’ s January 5th command .
So : neither Iraq nor Iran should make any such move ( inviting Russia in ) , at the present time .
Only after U.S. troops are gone from the region could Iraq and Iran become publicly allied with , and under the protection of , Russia .
Only then will the realigned global order start .
Right now would be too early .
Iran ’ s leadership team are remarkably intelligent .
( America ’ s , after FDR @ @ @ @ @ @ @ now — under Trump — aren ’ t even that . )
Iran ’ s leaders have promised retaliation for what Trump did .
But they haven ’ t said when it will be done , or what it will entail .
If they just stand back and wait while the world-at-large ( other than American billionaires ’ core foreign allies the aristocracies of Saudi Arabia , Israel , and UK ) gradually abandon their alliances with the U.S. regime , then not only Iran but also the U.S. regime ’ s other @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will naturally rise in the international order , and this could become the way that the world ’ s most dangerous imperialistic regime , the United States Government ( since 1948 the serial perpetrator of coups and invasions ) , will finally be able to be defeated peacefully , and defanged gradually thereafter .
That would be Iran ’ s retaliation — none .
Here is what I see as a possible end-point to this matter , if all non-U.S. entitities respond to this turning-point in history in the optimal ways : Trump @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sanctions against Iran and restoring U.S. participation in the Iran nuclear agreement , the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action , which in 2015 was signed by China , France , Russia , United Kingdom , United States , Germany , and then the entire European Union .
Iran would then announce that it is willing to discuss with all of the signatories to that agreement , if a majority of them wish to do so , international negotiations regarding possible changes ( amendments ) to be made to that agreement .
The United @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and on a strictly bi-lateral , U.S.-Iran , basis , to negotiate with Iran a settlement to all outstanding issues between the two nations , so that they may proceed forward with normal diplomatic relations , on a peaceful instead of mutually hostile , foundation .
Trump also would announce that he is seeking negotiations with Iraq about a total withdrawal of the United States from Iraq — the end of the U.S. occupation that started on 20 March 2003 — and closure of the U.S. Embassy there , to be replaced by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s imperial sway over Iraq will end , though not immediately — its ending will be a process .
This will be a negotiated termination , a peaceful one ( unless Trump is crazy enough to resist ) .
Trump would initiate this as a package-deal confidentially offered by him to Khamenei — all steps of it — in advance of any carrying-out of the steps , and initiated by him soon enough to ward off any retaliatory action by Iran ( just in case Iran isn ’ t smart enough to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in order to quit his further provocations ) , so as to avoid further escalation of the hostilities , which otherwise would likely escalate to a widespread and possibly global war .
In other words , this direct communication between the two should already have been sought by Trump .
( But , since he ’ s probably too stupid to have thought that out in advance , let ’ s all hope that Iran ’ s leadership are sufficiently intelligent to give him all the time that he needs . )
I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of that , not even the first step , and not even the offer to Khamenei ; and Iran is in no position to make the first step , in any case ( since the U.S. had started the mutual hostilities between the two nations in 1953 ) .
However , if Trump does , at least make the offer and then do the first step ( ending sanctions ) , then I think that he will easily win re-election , regardless of whom the Democratic nominee will be .
If he can @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that will be a diplomatic achievement of historic proportions , the best and most important in decades .
No one would then be able to deny it .
He would , in fact , then deserve to win the Nobel Peace Prize ( which Obama never deserved to win , though he did win it ) .
But I don ’ t expect any of that to happen , because it would be exactly contrary to the way that any recent U.S. President has behaved , and because many in power in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ if he did do it .
But just give it time ; and , if Iran simply waits for ‘ the right time to retaliate ’ , then retaliation by Iran won ’ t even be necessary .
This would be “ Checkmate !
” by Iran , against the U.S. regime .
And that would be Iran ’ s ( and everyone ’ s except U.S. ’ s , UK ’ s , Israel ’ s , and Saudi Arabia ’ s ) ‘ retaliation ’ , for Trump ’ s personal @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Those four nations — the core U.S. group — would then go on together , to decline peacefully in the global order . )
An interesting feature of this outcome is that Iran would then be using Trump ’ s enormous blunder in a way that would simultaneously defeat all four of the nations that are seeking to defeat Iran : U.S. , Saudi Arabia , Israel , and UK .
Even if Trump ends up winning his vaunted Nobel Peace Prize and Iran won ’ t share in it , Iran would @ @ @ @ @ @ @ important , and ( no matter how much such a prize would then be deserved only by Iran ) , that meaningless piece of PR dross wouldn ’ t mean anything to Iran ’ s leaders , anyway .
They ’ re not nearly so petty as Trump — that ’ s for sure .
Iran ’ s biggest weapon now will be patience , if they ’ re smart enough to use it .
Trump ’ s assassination of Soleimani could turn out to have been the best thing that has ever @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Soleimani , were he around to see the outcome , would be ecstatic that Trump did it .
He was a true Iranian patriot , nothing of the fake sort .
In any case , nothing , from now on , will be able to detract from the legend that will arise in Iran about him .
The ball is now in Iran ’ s court , for Soleimani ’ s successors to determine the world ’ s future .
Trump made this possible .
Without what he did on January 3rd , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the news on the morning of January 7th is that at least thus far , Iran is behaving badly , and also Europe is behaving badly .
Iran is withdrawing from the Iran nuclear agreement , the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action , which in 2015 was signed by China , France , Russia , United Kingdom , United States , Germany , and then the entire European Union .
This drives European nations to continue relying on America and its NATO .
And the rhetoric from European leaders is suddenly more @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Soleimani .
Things right now are hurtling toward an isolated Iran against ‘ The Western Alliance ’ or the U.S.-and-allied regimes .
Perhaps Iran ’ s leaders ( Khamenei and Solemani ’ s replacement , announced by Khamenei on January 3rd , Brigadier General Ismai Ghani ) , are expecting that in a lurch they will ask Russia to back them up against U.S.-and-its-allies .
This suggests that Putin hasn ’ t yet told them that unless they adhere to this plan , he would say no to that .
If this is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , then Putin goofed there by having assumed they understood , and should promptly but privately tell Iran this , and should privately instruct Iran promptly to reverse its announced withdrawal from the nuclear agreement .
That reversal would turn out to be temporary if EU leaders fail then to back Iran and Iraq against U.S. on Soleimani and on the necessity for Trump to comply with the order from Iraq to end occupying Iraq now .
Unless Iran promptly reverses its announced withdrawal from JCPOA , everything will fall apart and not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and , at the very least , Iran will be destroyed and probably almost all of the Middle East too .
The Cold War would go on , and the U.S. regime would be in an even stronger position than before .
America ’ s occupation of Iraq woud continue .
The misery and humiliation of Iraqis would intensify even further , China would be practically isolated , and America ’ s all-but-total conquest of the world would be good for nobody but U.S.-and-allied billionaires .
But the results would be worst @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Eric Zuesse is the author , most recently , of They ’ re Not Even Close : The Democratic vs. Republican Economic Records , 1910-2010 , and of CHRIST ’ S VENTRILOQUISTS : The Event that Created Christianity .

The statements, views and opinions expressed in this column are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of this site. This site does not give financial, investment or medical advice.
Eric Zuesse, originally posted at strategic-culture.org
On Sunday morning 5 January 2020, the great investigative journalist and geostrategist who blogs as “Moon of Alabama” (MOA) headlined “Iraqi Parliament Expels Foreign Militaries From Iraq” and he reported that not only the parliament but also the nation’s Prime Minister (Abdel Mahdi) are demanding departure from Iraq of all foreign military forces, and that Iraq will now — as UAE’s The National puts it — “lodge an official complaint against the US at the UN.” The complaint will “condemn #US airstrikes on #Iraqi soil targeting Iraqi soldiers and both Iraqi and #Iranian military leaders.”
(U.S.-and-allied ‘news’-media, such as Reuters, lied about this matter when saying that “While such resolutions are not binding on the government, this one is likely to be heeded: Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi had earlier called on parliament to end foreign troop presence as soon as possible.” As MOA had already explained, the assassination was profoundly embarrassing personally to Mahdi, and he “and the whole cabinet supported the resolution.” Under such circumstances, there is no way possible that the Prime Minister can reverse himself and his cabinet and the Parliament, on that demand. It’s a non-reversible demand. But, later on January 5th, the U.S. State Department nonetheless said, “While we await further clarification on the legal nature and impact of today’s resolution, we strongly urge Iraqi leaders to reconsider the importance of the ongoing economic and security relationship between the two countries and the continued presence of the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS.” That was a stupid statement, but at least it wasn’t so demeaning to Shiites and to Shiite-led governments as the U.S. President’s statements normally are. It was instead a public display that the American dictator can’t believe that, from now on, Iraqis are going to be running Iraq, and that there’s no way the ruler in Washington DC can possibly dictate to Iraq again. Yet, Axios reported later in the day, that “‘I think it would be inconvenient for us, but it would be catastrophic for Iraq,’ said a U.S. official familiar with the Trump administration’s effort to block the vote. ‘It’s our concern that Iraq would take a short-term decision that would have catastrophic long-term implications for the country and its security.’” The U.S. Government was already becoming desperate and resorting to veiled unspecific ‘catastrophe’ for Iraqis if Iraq’s Government won’t reverse this command. Some fat chance that the outraged and temporarily united Iraqi public are going to cave to such veiled threats from Iraq’s viscerally hated invader.)
MOA, a progressive German who despises fascists (such as Trump), makes abundantly clear that “Without any bases in Iraq the U.S. position in Syria will become untenable.” He quotes another respected geostrategist, Elijah Magnier, saying, “#QassemSoleimani managed to reach with his death what he couldn’t reach when he was alive. That is his last spectacular act for Iran and for the ‘Axis of the Resistance’: legislation forcing the US to withdraw and cease all kind of collaboration.”
Instances in which I have tracked the accuracy of predictions of both MOA and Magnier, have shown MOA’s to have an even higher (virtually 100%) rate of having proven accurate than Magnier’s do; and, consequently, MOA’s quoting this from Magnier makes it MOA’s prediction also, and not only Magnier’s. This adds weight to it. Consequently, the U.S. regime’s long war against Iran, which started by its successful coup in 1953 overthrowing Iran’s democratically elected Government and replacing that legimate Government by a barbaric dictatorship which lasted until 1979 and which American billionaires even up to the present time cannot tolerate having been overthrown by the Iranian people in 1979, does finally appear likely to end, with the fascist imperialist U.S. regime’s humiliating defeat, one way or another, but not necessarily quickly.
MOA closes with:
There is a clear danger in this act [by Iraq’s Government, expelling all U.S. forces]. The Trump administration is now likely to see Iraq as completely in the Iranian camp. That never was and never will be true but that is how it will be seen. The U.S. may therefore again start to pay (with Saudi money?) Sunni extremists, i.e. ISIS, to change the current situation to its advantage.
That is one reason why I recommend to Iraq to invite Russia to train its army.
However, here I respectfully diverge from MOA’s view. While I do favor Iraq’s becoming allied with Russia — the nation that America’s Government has been aiming ever since 26 July 1945 (when the U.S. Government became taken over by America’s Deep State or aristocracy) to conquer — I believe that immediately is not the best time to do this. My sense of the situation is that Trump has already trapped himself here, and that if only Iran will refrain from fulfilling anytime soon its threats to retaliate, then Trump will become forced by circumstances to accept a settlement on Iran’s terms. Consequently, any public action by Russia right now would serve only to provide America’s billionaires (acting, as they customarily do, via their agents and fronts) yet another opportunity to call Russia ‘an enemy of America’ and thereby to distract the global public from the blatant, sheer, and unalloyed, evil, of Trump’s constant efforts to crush Iran — a nation that never invaded nor even threatened to invade America. Furthermore, Iraq’s leadership have probably already been advised by Russia to refrain from publicly seeking alliance with Russia at the present stage; and, so, I do not expect that any such request by Iraq will be made at this time. If Iraq requests it now and Russia does not favorably respond, that would only weaken both Iraq and Russia; so, I do not expect it to happen. Not yet.
Timing is almost everything. On 18 November 2019, Russia’s Sputnik News bannered “Russia Ready to Deliver Arms to Iran After Int’l Sanctions Lifted — Defence Cooperation Body”, and this obviously means that Russia doesn’t want to come out publicly on Iran’s side unless and until the U.S. regime has cancelled its sanctions against Iran. Putin is an extremely intelligent man; he understands timing. Trump’s 3 January 2020 assassination of Iran’s #2 leader is an overt (by means of that action) declaration of war by him against Iran; and, so, Russia clearly can see that if Russia overtly comes out as being allied with Iran against the United States, then the conflict between U.S. and Iran would immediately be also a conflict between U.S. and Russia — and at an even higher level of adversariality than since 30 September 2015 (when Russia started bombing America’s and Saudi Arabia’s hired boots-on-the-ground fighters — led by Al Qaeda in Syria — who were trying to overthrow Syria’s secular Government) has existed regarding the war in Syria. It would be wrong for Russia, until U.S. troops are already gone from Iraq. Russia’s strategy has always been to delay World War III until all other means of pacifying America’s cravenous aristocracy have become exhausted — which hasn’t happened yet. If Russia will be coming out publicly in favor of Iran against the U.S. regime, then that would be just one step away from a direct hot war with the United States, which would produce global nuclear annihilation. Obviously, Russia won’t yet do that. Forcing Trump either to become publicly humiliated by backing down, or else for him to destroy the planet within less than an hour by means of WW III, isn’t necessary now, though could later occur, if Trump is crazy enough to refuse to comply with Iraq’s January 5th command.
So: neither Iraq nor Iran should make any such move (inviting Russia in), at the present time. Only after U.S. troops are gone from the region could Iraq and Iran become publicly allied with, and under the protection of, Russia. Only then will the realigned global order start. Right now would be too early.
Iran’s leadership team are remarkably intelligent. (America’s, after FDR died, have usually been cunning but now — under Trump — aren’t even that.) Iran’s leaders have promised retaliation for what Trump did. But they haven’t said when it will be done, or what it will entail. If they just stand back and wait while the world-at-large (other than American billionaires’ core foreign allies the aristocracies of Saudi Arabia, Israel, and UK) gradually abandon their alliances with the U.S. regime, then not only Iran but also the U.S. regime’s other main targets — Russia and China — will naturally rise in the international order, and this could become the way that the world’s most dangerous imperialistic regime, the United States Government (since 1948 the serial perpetrator of coups and invasions), will finally be able to be defeated peacefully, and defanged gradually thereafter.
That would be Iran’s retaliation — none.
Here is what I see as a possible end-point to this matter, if all non-U.S. entitities respond to this turning-point in history in the optimal ways:
Trump would announce that he is herewith cancelling sanctions against Iran and restoring U.S. participation in the Iran nuclear agreement, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, which in 2015 was signed by China, France, Russia, United Kingdom, United States, Germany, and then the entire European Union. Iran would then announce that it is willing to discuss with all of the signatories to that agreement, if a majority of them wish to do so, international negotiations regarding possible changes (amendments) to be made to that agreement. The United States would then offer, separately, and on a strictly bi-lateral, U.S.-Iran, basis, to negotiate with Iran a settlement to all outstanding issues between the two nations, so that they may proceed forward with normal diplomatic relations, on a peaceful instead of mutually hostile, foundation.
Trump also would announce that he is seeking negotiations with Iraq about a total withdrawal of the United States from Iraq — the end of the U.S. occupation that started on 20 March 2003 — and closure of the U.S. Embassy there, to be replaced by a far smaller U.S. Embassy. America’s imperial sway over Iraq will end, though not immediately — its ending will be a process. This will be a negotiated termination, a peaceful one (unless Trump is crazy enough to resist).
Trump would initiate this as a package-deal confidentially offered by him to Khamenei — all steps of it — in advance of any carrying-out of the steps, and initiated by him soon enough to ward off any retaliatory action by Iran (just in case Iran isn’t smart enough to give him all the time he needs in order to quit his further provocations), so as to avoid further escalation of the hostilities, which otherwise would likely escalate to a widespread and possibly global war. In other words, this direct communication between the two should already have been sought by Trump. (But, since he’s probably too stupid to have thought that out in advance, let’s all hope that Iran’s leadership are sufficiently intelligent to give him all the time that he needs.)
I do not expect Trump to do any of that, not even the first step, and not even the offer to Khamenei; and Iran is in no position to make the first step, in any case (since the U.S. had started the mutual hostilities between the two nations in 1953). However, if Trump does, at least make the offer and then do the first step (ending sanctions), then I think that he will easily win re-election, regardless of whom the Democratic nominee will be. If he can re-establish friendly relations with Iran, then that will be a diplomatic achievement of historic proportions, the best and most important in decades. No one would then be able to deny it. He would, in fact, then deserve to win the Nobel Peace Prize (which Obama never deserved to win, though he did win it). But I don’t expect any of that to happen, because it would be exactly contrary to the way that any recent U.S. President has behaved, and because many in power in the United States would be furious against him if he did do it.
But just give it time; and, if Iran simply waits for ‘the right time to retaliate’, then retaliation by Iran won’t even be necessary.
This would be “Checkmate!” by Iran, against the U.S. regime. And that would be Iran’s (and everyone’s except U.S.’s, UK’s, Israel’s, and Saudi Arabia’s) ‘retaliation’, for Trump’s personal combination of psychopathy and stupidity. (Those four nations — the core U.S. group — would then go on together, to decline peacefully in the global order.)
An interesting feature of this outcome is that Iran would then be using Trump’s enormous blunder in a way that would simultaneously defeat all four of the nations that are seeking to defeat Iran: U.S., Saudi Arabia, Israel, and UK. Even if Trump ends up winning his vaunted Nobel Peace Prize and Iran won’t share in it, Iran would be the winner of what really is important, and (no matter how much such a prize would then be deserved only by Iran), that meaningless piece of PR dross wouldn’t mean anything to Iran’s leaders, anyway. They’re not nearly so petty as Trump — that’s for sure.
Iran’s biggest weapon now will be patience, if they’re smart enough to use it.
Trump’s assassination of Soleimani could turn out to have been the best thing that has ever happened for Iran. If so, Soleimani, were he around to see the outcome, would be ecstatic that Trump did it. He was a true Iranian patriot, nothing of the fake sort. In any case, nothing, from now on, will be able to detract from the legend that will arise in Iran about him. The ball is now in Iran’s court, for Soleimani’s successors to determine the world’s future. Trump made this possible. Without what he did on January 3rd, it would not be possible.
—
UPDATE:
However, the news on the morning of January 7th is that at least thus far, Iran is behaving badly, and also Europe is behaving badly. Iran is withdrawing from the Iran nuclear agreement, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, which in 2015 was signed by China, France, Russia, United Kingdom, United States, Germany, and then the entire European Union. This drives European nations to continue relying on America and its NATO. And the rhetoric from European leaders is suddenly more favorable toward Trump’s assassination of Soleimani. Things right now are hurtling toward an isolated Iran against ‘The Western Alliance’ or the U.S.-and-allied regimes. Perhaps Iran’s leaders (Khamenei and Solemani’s replacement, announced by Khamenei on January 3rd, Brigadier General Ismai Ghani), are expecting that in a lurch they will ask Russia to back them up against U.S.-and-its-allies. This suggests that Putin hasn’t yet told them that unless they adhere to this plan, he would say no to that. If this is what’s happening behind the scenes, then Putin goofed there by having assumed they understood, and should promptly but privately tell Iran this, and should privately instruct Iran promptly to reverse its announced withdrawal from the nuclear agreement. That reversal would turn out to be temporary if EU leaders fail then to back Iran and Iraq against U.S. on Soleimani and on the necessity for Trump to comply with the order from Iraq to end occupying Iraq now. Unless Iran promptly reverses its announced withdrawal from JCPOA, everything will fall apart and not be able to be put together again, and, at the very least, Iran will be destroyed and probably almost all of the Middle East too. The Cold War would go on, and the U.S. regime would be in an even stronger position than before. America’s occupation of Iraq woud continue. The misery and humiliation of Iraqis would intensify even further, China would be practically isolated, and America’s all-but-total conquest of the world would be good for nobody but U.S.-and-allied billionaires. But the results would be worst of all for Iranians.
—————
Investigative historian Eric Zuesse is the author, most recently, of They’re Not Even Close: The Democratic vs. Republican Economic Records, 1910-2010, and of CHRIST’S VENTRILOQUISTS: The Event that Created Christianity.
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theduran--2020-01-07--Angela Merkel test pilots China style internet surveillance (Video)

The Duran ’ s Alex Christoforou and Editor-in-Chief Alexander Mercouris discuss Angela Merkel ’ s government push in Germany to force Internet Service Providers ( ISPs ) to hand over data , emails , passwords and other information of people accused of ‘ hate speech ’ .
Support Free Speech : Subscribe to The Duran on YouTube – Find us on BitChute .
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Angela Merkel ’ s government is preparing a new bill that will force Internet Service Providers ( ISPs ) to hand over data , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ engaging in “ hate speech ” online .
Minister of Justice Christine Lambrecht , a member of the Social Democrats ( SPD ) , is preparing the bill , which will force service providers , email hosts , online retailers , and others to give the government the usernames , passwords , IP addresses , and more of suspects , MDR reports .
Lambrecht was slammed by many over the proposal , with Hamburg ’ s data protection officer Johannes Caspar calling it an attack on privacy .
“ The fight against the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ crime apparently acts as a door opener for a comprehensive expansion of state control powers , ” he warned .
The German minister defended herself and the bill , claiming that the passwords and data would only be requested as part of a court order and only in serious cases .
“ It is not a question of asking for passwords en masse , it is a completely wrong representation and not at all the point and purpose , ” she said .
Populist Alternative for Germany ( AfD ) politician Joana Cotar @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fight against the free Internet ” and argued it would be used to silence citizens critical of the German government .
The far-left Die Linke agreed with the AfD , accusing the government of setting up a surveillance state .
Germany already has one of the most draconian sets of laws concerning “ hate ” on social media , including approving legislation imposing fines of up to 50 million euros on social media companies who do not remove hate content in what the government considers a timely manner .
The German authorities are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of citizens accused of spreading “ hate speech ” online , with a 2016 raid seeing 60 homes searched across 14 states .

The statements, views and opinions expressed in this column are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of this site. This site does not give financial, investment or medical advice.
The Duran’s Alex Christoforou and Editor-in-Chief Alexander Mercouris discuss Angela Merkel’s government push in Germany to force Internet Service Providers (ISPs) to hand over data, emails, passwords and other information of people accused of ‘hate speech’.
Support Free Speech:
Subscribe to The Duran on YouTube – Find us on BitChute.
The Duran Audio Podcast:
Follow on Soundcloud – Subscribe on iTunes.
Via Breitbart…
Angela Merkel’s government is preparing a new bill that will force Internet Service Providers (ISPs) to hand over data, including passwords, of those accused of engaging in “hate speech” online.
Minister of Justice Christine Lambrecht, a member of the Social Democrats (SPD), is preparing the bill, which will force service providers, email hosts, online retailers, and others to give the government the usernames, passwords, IP addresses, and more of suspects, MDR reports.
Lambrecht was slammed by many over the proposal, with Hamburg’s data protection officer Johannes Caspar calling it an attack on privacy.
“The fight against the ugly phenomena of right-wing extremism and hate crime apparently acts as a door opener for a comprehensive expansion of state control powers,” he warned.
The German minister defended herself and the bill, claiming that the passwords and data would only be requested as part of a court order and only in serious cases.
“It is not a question of asking for passwords en masse, it is a completely wrong representation and not at all the point and purpose,” she said.
Police Raid 60 Homes For ‘Xenophobic’ Facebook Posts https://t.co/YFXe5P1mDk pic.twitter.com/piUPNx5nV0 — Breitbart London (@BreitbartLondon) July 13, 2016
Populist Alternative for Germany (AfD) politician Joana Cotar said the proposed legislation was a “fight against the free Internet” and argued it would be used to silence citizens critical of the German government.
The far-left Die Linke agreed with the AfD, accusing the government of setting up a surveillance state.
Germany already has one of the most draconian sets of laws concerning “hate” on social media, including approving legislation imposing fines of up to 50 million euros on social media companies who do not remove hate content in what the government considers a timely manner.
The German authorities are also known to engage in large-scale raids of citizens accused of spreading “hate speech” online, with a 2016 raid seeing 60 homes searched across 14 states.
‘Freedom of Expression Has Its Limits!’ – Merkel Rails Against Free Speech https://t.co/BAoBtdlCIh — Breitbart London (@BreitbartLondon) December 1, 2019
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theduran--2020-01-07--A Terrorist Attack Against Eurasian Integration

Authored by Federico Pieraccini via The Strategic Culture Foundation : The murder of Iranian general Qasem Soleimani in Baghdad , in the early hours of January 3 by US forces , only highlights the extent to which US strategy in the Middle East has failed .
It is likely to provoke reactions that do not benefit US interests in the region .
To understand the significance of this event , it is necessary to quickly reconstruct the developments in Iraq .
The US has occupied Iraq for 17 years , following its invasion of the country in 2003 .
During @ @ @ @ @ @ @ re-established ties by sustaining an important dialogue on post-war reconstruction as well as by acknowledging the importance of the Shia population in Iraq .
Within two decades , Iraq and Iran have gone from declaring war with each other to cooperating on the so-called Shia Crescent , favoring cooperation and the commercial and military development of the quartet composed of Iran , Iraq , Syria and Lebanon .
Such ties , following recent victories over international terrorism , have been further consolidated , leading to current and planned overland connections between this quartet @ @ @ @ @ @ @ calling for US troops to leave Iraqi territory with increasing vigor and force in recent months .
Washington has accused Tehran of inciting associated protests .
At the same time , groups of dubious origin , that have sought to equate the Iranian presence with the American one , have been calling for the withdrawal of the Popular Mobilization Units ( PMUs ) that are linked to Iran from Iraq .
The protests from such groups appear to be sponsored and funded by Saudi Arabia .
With mutual accusations flying around , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Kataib Hezbollah on December 29 .
This episode sparked a series of reactions in Iraq that ended up enveloping the US embassy in Baghdad , which was besieged for days by demonstrators angry about ongoing airstrikes by US forces .
The US secretary of state , Mike Pompeo , blamed this volatile situation on Iran , warning that Tehran would be held responsible for any escalation of the situation involving the embassy .
In the early hours of January 3 , 2020 , another tangle was added to the Gordian Knot that is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ assassinated when his convoy was attacked by a drone near Baghdad International Airport .
The most effective opponents of ISIS and Wahabi jihadism in general was thus eliminated by the US in a terrorist act carried out in foreign country in a civilian area ( near Baghdad International Airport ) .
The champagne would have no doubt been flowing immediately upon receiving this news in the US Congress , the Israeli Knesset , Riyadh royal palace and in Idlib among al Nusra and al Qaeda militants .
It remains to be seen what @ @ @ @ @ @ @ decision to okay the assasination of such an influential and important leader .
Certainly the need to to demonstrate to his base ( and his Israeli and Saudi financiers ) plays into his anti-Iranian crusade .
But there are other reasons that better explain Trump ’ s actions that are more related to the influence of the US in the region ; the geopolitical chess game in the Middle East transcends any single leader or any drone attack .
In Syria , for example , the situation is extremely favorable to the government @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a matter of time before the country is again under the control of the central government .
General Soleimani and Iran have played a central role in ridding the country of the scourge of terrorism , a scourge directed and financed by the US and her regional allies .
In Iraq , the political situation is less favorable to the US now than it was back in 2006 .
Whatever progress in relations between Baghdad and Tehran has also been due to General Soleimani , who , together with the PMUs and the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ISIS ( which was created and nurtured by Western and Saudi intelligence , as revealed by Wikileaks ) .
It would seem that the US sanctions against Iran have not really had the intended effect , instead only serving to consolidate the country ’ s stance against imperialism .
The US , as a result , is experiencing a crisis in the region , effectively being driven out of the Middle East , rather than leaving intentionally .
In this extraordinary and unprecedented situation , the Russians and Chinese are offering themselves variously @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the emerging Eurasian mega-project ( the recent naval exercises between Beijing , Moscow and Tehran serving as a tangible example of this commitment ) .
Naturally , it is in their interests to avoid any extended regional conflict that may only serve to throw a monkey wrench into their vast Eurasian mega-project .
Putin and Xi Jinping face tough days ahead , trying to council Iran in avoiding an excessive response that would give Washington the perfect excuse for a war against Iran .
The prospects of a region without terrorism , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by Iran at the regional level and accompanied by China and Russia at the economic ( Belt and Road Initiative ) and military level , offer little hope to Riyadh , Tel Aviv and Washington of being able to influence events in the region and this is likely going to be the top argument that Putin and Xi Jinping will use to try to deter any Iranian overt response .
Deciding to kill the leader of the Quds Force in Iraq proves only one thing : that the options available to Trump and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and that the regional trends over the next decade appear irreversible .
Their only hope is for Tehran and her allies to lash out at the latest provocation , thereby justifying the regional war that would only serve to benefit Washington by slowing down regional unification under Iranian leadership .
We must remember that whenever the US finds itself in a situation where it can not control a country or a region , its tendency is to create chaos and ultimately destroy it .
By killing General Soleimani , the US hopes to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to slow down or altogether scupper any prospect of integration .
Fortunately , China , Russia and Iran are well aware that any conflict would not be in any of their own interests .
No drone-launched missiles will be enough to save the US from decades of foreign-policy errors and their associated horrors ; nor will they be enough to extinguish the memory of a hero ’ s tireless struggle against imperialism and terrorism .

The statements, views and opinions expressed in this column are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of this site. This site does not give financial, investment or medical advice.
Authored by Federico Pieraccini via The Strategic Culture Foundation:
The murder of Iranian general Qasem Soleimani in Baghdad, in the early hours of January 3 by US forces, only highlights the extent to which US strategy in the Middle East has failed. It is likely to provoke reactions that do not benefit US interests in the region.
To understand the significance of this event, it is necessary to quickly reconstruct the developments in Iraq. The US has occupied Iraq for 17 years, following its invasion of the country in 2003. During this time, Baghdad and Tehran have re-established ties by sustaining an important dialogue on post-war reconstruction as well as by acknowledging the importance of the Shia population in Iraq.
Within two decades, Iraq and Iran have gone from declaring war with each other to cooperating on the so-called Shia Crescent, favoring cooperation and the commercial and military development of the quartet composed of Iran, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon. Such ties, following recent victories over international terrorism, have been further consolidated, leading to current and planned overland connections between this quartet.
Local movements and organizations have been calling for US troops to leave Iraqi territory with increasing vigor and force in recent months. Washington has accused Tehran of inciting associated protests.
At the same time, groups of dubious origin, that have sought to equate the Iranian presence with the American one, have been calling for the withdrawal of the Popular Mobilization Units (PMUs) that are linked to Iran from Iraq. The protests from such groups appear to be sponsored and funded by Saudi Arabia.
With mutual accusations flying around, the US hit a pro-Iranian faction known as Kataib Hezbollah on December 29. This episode sparked a series of reactions in Iraq that ended up enveloping the US embassy in Baghdad, which was besieged for days by demonstrators angry about ongoing airstrikes by US forces.
The US secretary of state, Mike Pompeo, blamed this volatile situation on Iran, warning that Tehran would be held responsible for any escalation of the situation involving the embassy.
In the early hours of January 3, 2020, another tangle was added to the Gordian Knot that is the Middle East. Qasem Soleimani was assassinated when his convoy was attacked by a drone near Baghdad International Airport. The most effective opponents of ISIS and Wahabi jihadism in general was thus eliminated by the US in a terrorist act carried out in foreign country in a civilian area (near Baghdad International Airport). The champagne would have no doubt been flowing immediately upon receiving this news in the US Congress, the Israeli Knesset, Riyadh royal palace and in Idlib among al Nusra and al Qaeda militants.
It remains to be seen what the reasons were behind Trump’s decision to okay the assasination of such an influential and important leader. Certainly the need to to demonstrate to his base (and his Israeli and Saudi financiers) plays into his anti-Iranian crusade. But there are other reasons that better explain Trump’s actions that are more related to the influence of the US in the region; the geopolitical chess game in the Middle East transcends any single leader or any drone attack.
In Syria, for example, the situation is extremely favorable to the government in Damascus, with it only being a matter of time before the country is again under the control of the central government. General Soleimani and Iran have played a central role in ridding the country of the scourge of terrorism, a scourge directed and financed by the US and her regional allies.
In Iraq, the political situation is less favorable to the US now than it was back in 2006. Whatever progress in relations between Baghdad and Tehran has also been due to General Soleimani, who, together with the PMUs and the Iraqi army, freed the country from ISIS (which was created and nurtured by Western and Saudi intelligence, as revealed by Wikileaks).
It would seem that the US sanctions against Iran have not really had the intended effect, instead only serving to consolidate the country’s stance against imperialism. The US, as a result, is experiencing a crisis in the region, effectively being driven out of the Middle East, rather than leaving intentionally.
In this extraordinary and unprecedented situation, the Russians and Chinese are offering themselves variously as military, political and economic guarantors of the emerging Eurasian mega-project (the recent naval exercises between Beijing, Moscow and Tehran serving as a tangible example of this commitment). Naturally, it is in their interests to avoid any extended regional conflict that may only serve to throw a monkey wrench into their vast Eurasian mega-project.
Putin and Xi Jinping face tough days ahead, trying to council Iran in avoiding an excessive response that would give Washington the perfect excuse for a war against Iran.
The prospects of a region without terrorism, with a reinvigorated Shia Crescent, led by Iran at the regional level and accompanied by China and Russia at the economic (Belt and Road Initiative) and military level, offer little hope to Riyadh, Tel Aviv and Washington of being able to influence events in the region and this is likely going to be the top argument that Putin and Xi Jinping will use to try to deter any Iranian overt response.
Deciding to kill the leader of the Quds Force in Iraq proves only one thing: that the options available to Trump and his regional allies are rapidly shrinking, and that the regional trends over the next decade appear irreversible. Their only hope is for Tehran and her allies to lash out at the latest provocation, thereby justifying the regional war that would only serve to benefit Washington by slowing down regional unification under Iranian leadership.
We must remember that whenever the US finds itself in a situation where it cannot control a country or a region, its tendency is to create chaos and ultimately destroy it.
By killing General Soleimani, the US hopes to wreak havoc in the region so as to slow down or altogether scupper any prospect of integration. Fortunately, China, Russia and Iran are well aware that any conflict would not be in any of their own interests.
No drone-launched missiles will be enough to save the US from decades of foreign-policy errors and their associated horrors; nor will they be enough to extinguish the memory of a hero’s tireless struggle against imperialism and terrorism.
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theduran--2020-01-07--Ukranian Whistleblower Reveals MH-17 Tragedy Was Orchestrated by Poroshenko and British Secret Servi

Ukranian Whistleblower Reveals MH-17 Tragedy Was Orchestrated by Poroshenko and British Secret Service

Submitted by InfoBrics , authored by Paul Antonopoulos , Research Fellow at the Center for Syncretic Studies… Malaysian Airlines Flight 17 ( MH-17 ) , that was shot down on July 17 , 2014 in the Donbass region of Eastern Ukraine , killed all passengers onboard and was immediately blamed on pro-Russia Donbass volunteer militias fighting against henchmen of the Maidan civil unrest , the Neo-Nazi Azov Battalion and the Ukrainian military .
The blame was assigned against the Donbass militias with no investigation occurring and many questions remaining unanswered .
These questions were answered by Former Lieutenant Colonel Vasily @ @ @ @ @ @ @ who fled to Russia , in a damning new documentary titled “ MH-17 : In Search Of Truth.
” The whistleblower in the 39-minute documentary completely delegitimizes the findings found by the Dutch investigators and world leaders by drawing on classified documents he attained through his own high-ranking position and those close to him , as well as eye witness accounts including from the Donbass volunteers .
The responsibility for investigating the tragedy was given to a Dutch-led joint investigation team with the Dutch Safety Board , who claimed that MH-17 was downed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ surface-to-missile .
Prozorov challenges this assertion and questioned why Malaysia , which owned MH-17 , was pushed to the periphery of the investigation and priority was given to the Dutch side .
This in itself is not damning and does not disprove that the Donbass volunteers were not responsible , but it does demonstrate that there is a clear agenda when a country with direct interest in this tragedy is cast aside .
Interestingly , the Dutch investigators completely disregarded declassified Russian Ministry of Defense information that the missile used to down MH-17 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Western Ukraine near the Polish border during the Soviet era , the opposite end of the country to Donbass .
Prozorov was able to even reveal the serial number of the missile ( 8-8-6-8-7-2-0 ) .
This revelation is complemented by the fact that the Ukrainian military 156 Anti-Aircraft Regiment were operating in Donbass and had BUK vehicles in service in the region , as corroborated by two interviewees who served in the regiment , bringing into question why Dutch investigators ignored such critical information .
This comes as it has now been @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , that the alleged Russian Buk movement in Ukraine was faked , with a single still photo being used with a picture of a tractor , a trailer and a Buk vehicle being inserted into the picture .
However , the Ukrainian Security Service using the 156 Anti-Aircraft Regiment had not acted alone , and there were significant joint efforts with external states , primarily Britain , but also Australia .
The documentary reveals that Ukrainian Major General Valery Kondratyuk and Lieutenant Colonel Vasily Burba , in which Prozorov knew the latter , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on June 22 , 2014 in the battle zone some weeks before the MH-17 tragedy .
Prozorov claims that Burba remained with the British agents in the region and plotted together with Ukrainian Security Services to bring down MH-17 .
As this was spearheaded by the British intelligence , there was no surprise that Englishman Elliot Higgins , a former lingerie retailer , who has not studied politics or journalism , had his obscure blogging elevated into the Bellingcat website , with monetary backing from George Soros ’ Open Society Foundation , just @ @ @ @ @ @ @ promoted to such an extent that he began to closely collaborate with the Atlantic Council , which Edward Curtins describes as “ a think-tank with deep ties to the U.S. government , NATO , war manufacturers , and their allies , and the National Endowment for Democracy , another infamous U.S. front organization heavily involved in so-called color revolution regime change operations all around the world.
” Higgins has also spearheaded disinformation campaigns on chemical weapon allegations against the Syrian government .
The MH-17 tragedy also strangely involved Australia , according to Prozorov @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , likely belonging to the Australian Security Intelligence Organisation if Prozorov ’ s allegations are correct , having a British phone number beginning with +44 and ending with 575 , despite operating in Ukraine and being Australian , in which the national phone code of his home country is +61 .
With these revelations , Prozorov explains that “ we collected enough information and documents that allow us to draw a firm conclusion .
The Boeing crash was a provocation that had been planned and realized by the Ukrainian top leadership and the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ main culprits in this tragedy : • Petr Poroshenko , the President of Ukraine at the time ; • Alexander Turchinov , the Secretary of the National Security and Defence Council of Ukraine ; • Viktor Muzhenko , the chief of the General Staff ; • Valentin Nalivaychenko , the Chief of the Security Service of Ukraine ; • Vasiliy Gritsak , the Chief of the Anti-Terrorist Center ; • Valeriy Kondratiuk , the Chief of the Counterintelligence Department of the Security Service ; • Lieutenant-Colonel Lyshchenko , the commander of the second @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The British intelligence agents who supervised this covert operation .
It is highly recommended that the documentary is viewed as all the information , in which all of it is relevant , can not be confined into a single article .
The insights and information provided by Prozorov thoroughly examines and concludes that MH-17 flight downing was an aggressive action taken by Ukraine with the backing of foreign intelligence agencies , particularly British , to discredit the Donbass militias .
I would argue this was also done to legitimize a Western intervention in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ disinformation campaign against Syria has failed , Higgins and other peoples campaign to blame the Donbass volunteers for MH-17 tragedy is also crumbling apart .

The statements, views and opinions expressed in this column are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of this site. This site does not give financial, investment or medical advice.
Submitted by InfoBrics, authored by Paul Antonopoulos, Research Fellow at the Center for Syncretic Studies…
Malaysian Airlines Flight 17 (MH-17), that was shot down on July 17, 2014 in the Donbass region of Eastern Ukraine, killed all passengers onboard and was immediately blamed on pro-Russia Donbass volunteer militias fighting against henchmen of the Maidan civil unrest, the Neo-Nazi Azov Battalion and the Ukrainian military. The blame was assigned against the Donbass militias with no investigation occurring and many questions remaining unanswered. These questions were answered by Former Lieutenant Colonel Vasily Prozorov of the Ukrainian Security Services, who fled to Russia, in a damning new documentary titled “MH-17: In Search Of Truth.”
The whistleblower in the 39-minute documentary completely delegitimizes the findings found by the Dutch investigators and world leaders by drawing on classified documents he attained through his own high-ranking position and those close to him, as well as eye witness accounts including from the Donbass volunteers. The responsibility for investigating the tragedy was given to a Dutch-led joint investigation team with the Dutch Safety Board, who claimed that MH-17 was downed by the Donbass volunteers with a Buk surface-to-missile. Prozorov challenges this assertion and questioned why Malaysia, which owned MH-17, was pushed to the periphery of the investigation and priority was given to the Dutch side. This in itself is not damning and does not disprove that the Donbass volunteers were not responsible, but it does demonstrate that there is a clear agenda when a country with direct interest in this tragedy is cast aside.
Interestingly, the Dutch investigators completely disregarded declassified Russian Ministry of Defense information that the missile used to down MH-17 was sent to the Lviv region in Western Ukraine near the Polish border during the Soviet era, the opposite end of the country to Donbass. Prozorov was able to even reveal the serial number of the missile (8-8-6-8-7-2-0). This revelation is complemented by the fact that the Ukrainian military 156 Anti-Aircraft Regiment were operating in Donbass and had BUK vehicles in service in the region, as corroborated by two interviewees who served in the regiment, bringing into question why Dutch investigators ignored such critical information. This comes as it has now been proven, as explained in the documentary, that the alleged Russian Buk movement in Ukraine was faked, with a single still photo being used with a picture of a tractor, a trailer and a Buk vehicle being inserted into the picture.
However, the Ukrainian Security Service using the 156 Anti-Aircraft Regiment had not acted alone, and there were significant joint efforts with external states, primarily Britain, but also Australia. The documentary reveals that Ukrainian Major General Valery Kondratyuk and Lieutenant Colonel Vasily Burba, in which Prozorov knew the latter, was with two British secret service agents on June 22, 2014 in the battle zone some weeks before the MH-17 tragedy. Prozorov claims that Burba remained with the British agents in the region and plotted together with Ukrainian Security Services to bring down MH-17. As this was spearheaded by the British intelligence, there was no surprise that Englishman Elliot Higgins, a former lingerie retailer, who has not studied politics or journalism, had his obscure blogging elevated into the Bellingcat website, with monetary backing from George Soros’ Open Society Foundation, just days before the tragedy. Higgins was promoted to such an extent that he began to closely collaborate with the Atlantic Council, which Edward Curtins describes as “a think-tank with deep ties to the U.S. government, NATO, war manufacturers, and their allies, and the National Endowment for Democracy, another infamous U.S. front organization heavily involved in so-called color revolution regime change operations all around the world.” Higgins has also spearheaded disinformation campaigns on chemical weapon allegations against the Syrian government.
The MH-17 tragedy also strangely involved Australia, according to Prozorov, with Australian intelligence agent Peter Kalver, likely belonging to the Australian Security Intelligence Organisation if Prozorov’s allegations are correct, having a British phone number beginning with +44 and ending with 575, despite operating in Ukraine and being Australian, in which the national phone code of his home country is +61. With these revelations, Prozorov explains that “we collected enough information and documents that allow us to draw a firm conclusion. The Boeing crash was a provocation that had been planned and realized by the Ukrainian top leadership and the Western intelligence agencies.”
Prozorov lists the main culprits in this tragedy:
Petr Poroshenko, the President of Ukraine at the time;
Alexander Turchinov, the Secretary of the National Security and Defence Council of Ukraine;
Viktor Muzhenko, the chief of the General Staff;
Valentin Nalivaychenko, the Chief of the Security Service of Ukraine;
Vasiliy Gritsak, the Chief of the Anti-Terrorist Center;
Valeriy Kondratiuk, the Chief of the Counterintelligence Department of the Security Service;
Vasiliy Burba, the Security Service officer;
Lieutenant-Colonel Lyshchenko, the commander of the second division of 156 anti-aircraft regiment;
The British intelligence agents who supervised this covert operation.
It is highly recommended that the documentary is viewed as all the information, in which all of it is relevant, cannot be confined into a single article. The insights and information provided by Prozorov thoroughly examines and concludes that MH-17 flight downing was an aggressive action taken by Ukraine with the backing of foreign intelligence agencies, particularly British, to discredit the Donbass militias. I would argue this was also done to legitimize a Western intervention in Ukraine. Just as Bellingcat’s disinformation campaign against Syria has failed, Higgins and other peoples campaign to blame the Donbass volunteers for MH-17 tragedy is also crumbling apart.
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theduran--2020-01-07--Can Harvey Weinstein Get A Fair Trial?

Can Harvey Weinstein Get A Fair Trial?

American justice is very different from British justice .
For one thing , it is much more open ; often the police release huge tranches of material about alleged offenders and victims .
It is not unusual for photographs of dead bodies , even autopsy photographs to show up relatively shortly on-line , obviously to the distress of the friends and families of victims .
That could never happen in the UK where with rare exceptions such files are closed for anything up to a hundred years .
Far worse than this though are the pronouncements of police officers and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ accused .
An extreme example of this was the case of Cassidy Goodson .
In September 2012 , this secretly pregnant fourteen year old girl gave birth in the toilet at her home , and killed the baby .
Shortly , Polk County Sheriff Grady Judge took it upon himself to go on-line and deliver an eight minute plus homily to the effect that this child was a murderess .
She did in fact strangle the baby , but in spite of this , in spite of being indicted as an adult , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ entry in Murderpedia , Cassidy Goodson received a mere 18 month sentence in a plea deal .
Was that justice ?
Clearly Sheriff Judd didn ’ t think so , but if we are to dispense with due process , we will all be at the mercy of him and his ilk .
We have more than enough lessons from history to show us where this leads .
Cassidy Goodson was a none-too-bright 14 year old girl ; Harvey Weinstein is an odious , once powerful movie mogul in his late 60s , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of sympathy or compassion , but he does deserve a fair trial .
It is doubtful he will be able to receive one after the media lynching he received Monday .
Already facing rape and other charges in New York , Los Angeles County District Attorney Jackie Lacey announced further charges of offences against two women dating to 2013 including rape .
Neither of these alleged assaults was reported to the police until 2017 , when the dam broke .
She asked for bail to be set at $ 5 million .
These @ @ @ @ @ @ @ accusers , but after saying she couldn ’ t comment further on the case at the present time , Lacey referred to them as victims .
The rest of the media briefing , which included other officials , was in the same spirit .
She pointed out that statutes of limitations for rape have been abolished in California , but what she didn ’ t say is that these were eliminated due to the pressure generated by Gloria Allred in her successful witch-hunt of veteran comedian Bill Cosby in which she encouraged literally @ @ @ @ @ @ @ some of them clearly deranged .
Allred was assisted in this shameful enterprise by reporting by at times totally uncritical mainstream journalists .
In spite of false allegations of rape being endemic , even without the # MeToo Movement , women – and on occasion men – are being encouraged to come forward with allegations from months , years , decades in the past .
We are told these were not reported initially due to trauma , to self-blame , to denial , to fear of not being believed , when far more @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rewritten their sordid sexual encounters in their tiny minds as rape .
Others have false memories , or are simply lying for any of a dozen or a hundred reasons .
Harvey Weinstein will now be in the invidious position of having to prove his innocence , something that is even more difficult than it appears when one considers that people falsely accused of sex crimes from Kelly Michaels in the US to Rolf Harris in the UK have been convicted of impossible acts due to juries and even judges being taken in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the victim regardless of the evidence .

The statements, views and opinions expressed in this column are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of this site. This site does not give financial, investment or medical advice.
American justice is very different from British justice. For one thing, it is much more open; often the police release huge tranches of material about alleged offenders and victims. It is not unusual for photographs of dead bodies, even autopsy photographs to show up relatively shortly on-line, obviously to the distress of the friends and families of victims. That could never happen in the UK where with rare exceptions such files are closed for anything up to a hundred years.
Far worse than this though are the pronouncements of police officers and state prosecutors that can often prejudice the accused. An extreme example of this was the case of Cassidy Goodson. In September 2012, this secretly pregnant fourteen year old girl gave birth in the toilet at her home, and killed the baby. Shortly, Polk County Sheriff Grady Judd took it upon himself to go on-line and deliver an eight minute plus homily to the effect that this child was a murderess. She did in fact strangle the baby, but in spite of this, in spite of being indicted as an adult, and in spite of her earning an entry in Murderpedia, Cassidy Goodson received a mere 18 month sentence in a plea deal. Was that justice? Clearly Sheriff Judd doesn’t think so, but if we are to dispense with due process, we will all be at the mercy of him and his ilk. We have more than enough lessons from history to show us where this leads.
Cassidy Goodson was a none-too-bright 14 year old girl; Harvey Weinstein is an odious, once powerful movie mogul in his late 60s, so he warrants little in the way of sympathy or compassion, but he does deserve a fair trial. It is doubtful he will be able to receive one after the media lynching he received Monday.
Already facing rape and other charges in New York, Los Angeles County District Attorney Jackie Lacey announced further charges of offences against two women dating to 2013 including rape. Neither of these alleged assaults was reported to the police until 2017, when the dam broke. She asked for bail to be set at $5 million.
These two were not Weinstein’s only accusers, but after saying she couldn’t comment further on the case at the present time, Lacey referred to them as victims. The rest of the media briefing, which included other officials, was in the same spirit.
She pointed out that statutes of limitations for rape have been abolished in California, but what she didn’t say is that these were eliminated due to the pressure generated by Gloria Allred in her successful witch-hunt of veteran comedian Bill Cosby in which she encouraged literally dozens of women to accuse him, some of them clearly deranged. Allred was assisted in this shameful enterprise by reporting by at times totally uncritical mainstream journalists.
In spite of false allegations of rape being endemic, even without the #MeToo Movement, women – and on occasion men – are being encouraged to come forward with allegations from months, years, decades in the past. We are told these were not reported initially due to trauma, to self-blame, to denial, to fear of not being believed, when far more common is that many self-styled survivors have rewritten their sordid sexual encounters in their tiny minds as rape. Others have false memories, or are simply lying for any of a dozen or a hundred reasons.
Harvey Weinstein will now be in the invidious position of having to prove his innocence, something that is even more difficult than it appears when one considers that people falsely accused of sex crimes from Kelly Michaels in the US to Rolf Harris in the UK have been convicted of impossible acts due to juries and even judges being taken in by bogus tales of trauma and believing the victim regardless of the evidence.
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theduran--2020-01-07--America Says It’s Ending Its Occupation of Iraq

Sir , in due deference to the sovereignty of the Republic of Iraq , and as requested by the Iraqi Parliament and the Prime Minister , CJTF-OIR will be repositioning [ i.e.
, moving ] forces over the course of the coming days and weeks .
In order to conduct this task , Coalition Forces are required to take certain measures to ensure that the movement out of Iraq is conducted in a safe and efficient manner .
During this time , there will be an increase in helicopter travel in and around the International Zone ( IZ ) of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ CH-47 , UH-60 , and AH-64 sec urity escort helicopters .
Coalition Forces will take appropriate measures to minimize and mitigate the disturbance to the public .
In addition , we will conduct these missions during hours of darkness to help alleviate any perception that we may be bringing more Coalition Forces into the IZ .
As we begin implementing this next phase of operations [ i.e , the post-U.S.-military-occupation-of-Iraq ; i.e.
, the end of America ’ s war against Iraq , phase ] , I want to reiterate the value of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ your sovereign decision to order our departure .
Commanding General , TF-Iraq [ Task Force – Iraq , representing the Combined Joint Task Force – Iraq , of the Joint Operations Command – Iraq , of the Department of Defense , of the United States Government ] On January 6th , Reuters headlined “ Pentagon chief denies U.S. leaving Iraq ” .
Their News-report opened : BAGHDAD/WASHINGTON ( Reuters ) – The United States has no plans to pull its troops out of Iraq , Defense Secretary Mark Esper said on Monday , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of an American military letter informing Iraq officials about the repositioning of troops in preparation to leave the country .
Word of the letter came a day after Iran ’ s demand for U.S. forces to withdraw from the region gained traction when Iraq ’ s parliament passed a resolution calling for all foreign troops to leave the country .
To view a pdf of the letter , click here .
That “ here ” leads the reader to a photograph of the letter , which this reporter has copied out character-by-character , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and so that the letter ’ s content becomes web-searchable-findable in any part of it , for quotations from it , so as to assist subsequent commentators upon it .
The article that Reuters headlined “ Pentagon chief denies U.S. leaving Iraq ” provided no documentation of the allegation in its headline , other than the article ’ s lead sentence “ The United States has no plans to pull its troops out of Iraq , Defense Secretary Mark Esper said on Monday , following reports by Reuters and other media of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ about the repositioning of troops in preparation to leave the country.
” If that allegation is backed by some documentation , then perhaps Mr. Esper or else Reuters , or perhaps U.S. President Trump himself , will subsequently make that public .
In any case , the entire letter constitutes important , historic , news , of America ’ s assertion to Iraq ’ s Government that the U.S. Government is now complying with Iraq ’ s demand to leave Iraq , after 17 years of military occupation of that country .
If @ @ @ @ @ @ @ decision , and goes to war again against the sovereign Government of Iraq , then that will be the subject of a subsequent news-report .
UPDATE : Late on January 6th , The Daily Beast headlined “ Joint Chiefs Chairman : Letter on U.S.-Led Coalition ‘ Repositioning Forces ’ in Iraq Was ‘ Mistake ’ ” and reported that , Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Mark Milley said on Monday that a letter written by the United States-led coalition against ISIS stating that it will be “ repositioning forces ” in Iraq @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a draft .
“ That letter is a draft , it was a mistake , it should not have been released , ” he told reporters , adding that it “ implies withdrawal ” and “ that is not what ’ s happening.
” In other words , Trump changed his mind , and the U.S. will be trying militarily to force the Government of Iraq to continue accepting America ’ s military occupation of their country .
This presents to America ’ s allied Governments a solemn decision whether or not to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ unapologetically is an imperialist fascist power like Italy , Japan , and Germany were during World Wat II .
If the U.S.-allied Governments abandon their alliances with the United States , and NATO terminates as a direct consequence , then perhaps World War III will be able to be avoided ; but , otherwise , either NATO will continue forward as an international fascist-imperialist alliance , and then nations that NATO treats as enemies , such as Russia , China , and Iran , will then need to consider whether or not to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , or , instead , capitulate to them .
Investigative historian Eric Zuesse is the author , most recently , of They ’ re Not Even Close : The Democratic vs. Republican Economic Records , 1910-2010 , and of CHRIST ’ S VENTRILOQUISTS : The Event that Created Christianity .

The statements, views and opinions expressed in this column are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of this site. This site does not give financial, investment or medical advice.
Eric Zuesse
(UPDATE IS AT THE BOTTOM.)
Here’s the official announcement:
—
6 JAN 2020
[TO:] sLTG Abdul Amir
Deputy Director, Combined Joint Operations Baghdad
Iraq — Ministry of Defense
Your Excellency,
Sir, in due deference to the sovereignty of the Republic of Iraq, and as requested by the Iraqi Parliament and the Prime Minister, CJTF-OIR will be repositioning [i.e., moving] forces over the course of the coming days and weeks. In order to conduct this task, Coalition Forces are required to take certain measures to ensure that the movement out of Iraq is conducted in a safe and efficient manner.
During this time, there will be an increase in helicopter travel in and around the International Zone (IZ) of Baghdad. This increased traffic will include CH-47, UH-60, and AH-64 sec urity escort helicopters.
Coalition Forces will take appropriate measures to minimize and mitigate the disturbance to the public. In addition, we will conduct these missions during hours of darkness to help alleviate any perception that we may be bringing more Coalition Forces into the IZ.
As we begin implementing this next phase of operations [i.e, the post-U.S.-military-occupation-of-Iraq; i.e., the end of America’s war against Iraq, phase], I want to reiterate the value of our friendship and partnership. We respect your sovereign decision to order our departure.
Very Respectfully,
[FROM:] WILLIAM H. SEELY III
Brigadier General, U.S. Marine Corps
Commanding General, TF-Iraq [Task Force – Iraq, representing the Combined Joint Task Force – Iraq, of the Joint Operations Command – Iraq, of the Department of Defense, of the United States Government]
—
On January 6th, Reuters headlined “Pentagon chief denies U.S. leaving Iraq”. Their News-report opened:
BAGHDAD/WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The United States has no plans to pull its troops out of Iraq, Defense Secretary Mark Esper said on Monday, following reports by Reuters and other media of an American military letter informing Iraq officials about the repositioning of troops in preparation to leave the country.
It closed:
Word of the letter came a day after Iran’s demand for U.S. forces to withdraw from the region gained traction when Iraq’s parliament passed a resolution calling for all foreign troops to leave the country.
To view a pdf of the letter, click here.
That “here” leads the reader to a photograph of the letter, which this reporter has copied out character-by-character, so that its content is the news-report, and so that the letter’s content becomes web-searchable-findable in any part of it, for quotations from it, so as to assist subsequent commentators upon it. The article that Reuters headlined “Pentagon chief denies U.S. leaving Iraq” provided no documentation of the allegation in its headline, other than the article’s lead sentence “The United States has no plans to pull its troops out of Iraq, Defense Secretary Mark Esper said on Monday, following reports by Reuters and other media of an American military letter informing Iraq officials about the repositioning of troops in preparation to leave the country.” If that allegation is backed by some documentation, then perhaps Mr. Esper or else Reuters, or perhaps U.S. President Trump himself, will subsequently make that public.
In any case, the entire letter constitutes important, historic, news, of America’s assertion to Iraq’s Government that the U.S. Government is now complying with Iraq’s demand to leave Iraq, after 17 years of military occupation of that country. If the U.S. Government reverses itself on that decision, and goes to war again against the sovereign Government of Iraq, then that will be the subject of a subsequent news-report.
UPDATE: Late on January 6th, The Daily Beast headlined “Joint Chiefs Chairman: Letter on U.S.-Led Coalition ‘Repositioning Forces’ in Iraq Was ‘Mistake’” and reported that,
Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Mark Milley said on Monday that a letter written by the United States-led coalition against ISIS stating that it will be “repositioning forces” in Iraq in the coming days is in fact a draft.
“That letter is a draft, it was a mistake, it should not have been released,” he told reporters, adding that it “implies withdrawal” and “that is not what’s happening.”
In other words, Trump changed his mind, and the U.S. will be trying militarily to force the Government of Iraq to continue accepting America’s military occupation of their country.
This presents to America’s allied Governments a solemn decision whether or not to remain allied with a nation that now unapologetically is an imperialist fascist power like Italy, Japan, and Germany were during World Wat II. If the U.S.-allied Governments abandon their alliances with the United States, and NATO terminates as a direct consequence, then perhaps World War III will be able to be avoided; but, otherwise, either NATO will continue forward as an international fascist-imperialist alliance, and then nations that NATO treats as enemies, such as Russia, China, and Iran, will then need to consider whether or not to go to war against the fascist-imperialist alliance, or, instead, capitulate to them.
—————
Investigative historian Eric Zuesse is the author, most recently, of They’re Not Even Close: The Democratic vs. Republican Economic Records, 1910-2010, and of CHRIST’S VENTRILOQUISTS: The Event that Created Christianity.
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theduran--2020-01-06--Tension between Iran and America

Tension between Iran and America

We are entering a dangerous period in the world , the middle east will flare up again , the US will continue to disrupt , and attempt ” regime change in Iran and Syria , ” this will be meet with stiff resistance .
Global economies will weaken , stock markets will not have much growth .
Trump is playing a very desperate and dangerous game to remain in power .
Qassem Soleimani will forever be a controversial figure in the western world , but for an overwhelming majority of Iranians he was a hero , a martyr , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was probably the single most respected military man not only amongst Shias and Christians , but also throughout the Middle East and around the world .
He has been universally recognized as one of the most influential military commanders in the region for decades .
This escalation by Trump is much bigger and more extreme than anyone is able to see from the face of it .
The assassination of Qassem Soleimani raises the stakes to a whole new level between Tehran and Washington .
Without doubt one of the most serious moments @ @ @ @ @ @ @ decades .
Iran already confirmed the incident .
The attack on the U.S Embassy in Baghdad is a big one reminiscent of what happened forty years ago in Tehran .
A nasty response was coming .
I didn ’ t think the PMUs would be going about it unintelligently .
The fact that their initial act at the US embassy , which received a green light from Iraqi Security forces guarding the Green Zone , is ominous .
The Iraqis have made it very clear they want the US to “ reduce its @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2003 .
In fact there is no formal agreement between Iraq and the US for the US troops to be there anyways .
One way for the US to get around their “ commitment ” to leave Iraq , is the use of “ contractors ” not boots .
No serious ME watcher can consider the PMUs as boy scouts , but after all they are Iraqis that get good marks in its role of defeating ISIS .
The Iranians can not afford to lose Iraq because it ’ s a neighbor .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ no independent foreign policy towards Iraq .
The Iraq policy is basically intertwined with the Iran policy and is part of a wider framework .
Iraq currently risks becoming an independent state and the idea that Iraq can be an ‘ ally ’ of a country far away that destroyed it in 2003 based on false claims of WMD ’ s and democracy building is simply ridiculous .
Iraq for Iraqis… When Soleimani was operating close to opium fields in Afghanistan , he fought against the drug trade .
After 9/11 , he @ @ @ @ @ @ @ or killed high-ranking al-Qaeda members , but the collaboration ended when George Bush declared Iran “ evil ” in a 2002 speech .
Soleimani came from a poor peasant family , worked in construction during his youth to pay off his father ’ s debts and lifted weights in his spare time .
He joined the Revolutionary Guard briefly after the 1979 revolution , to serve his country during the Iran-Iraq War .
When Iran was at war with Iraq , he rose up quickly through the ranks , and took part in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Soleimani described Operation Fath ol-Mobin ( undeniable victory ) as the best battle of his life , due to the odds being against his people and yet triumphing against Saddam ’ s guards despite that .
Soleimani was the leading figure behind the destruction of ISIS .
Iran was the first country to respond to the Iraqi government ’ s call for help in 2014 with support for the Popular Mobilization Force ( PMF ) .
Support was offered despite Iran suffering under sanctions because ISIS represented an existential security threat to Iran @ @ @ @ @ @ @ support ISIS would have seized much more territory and Iran ’ s support and the willingness of the PMF to fight ISIS was critical to the defeat of ISIS as a territorial entity in Iraq and Syria .
Iran is not going to negotiate in 2020 during the US elections , Rouhani will not be able to negotiate in 2021 during the Iranian presidential elections that he is not able to run in .
There would have to be “ a reformist ” constituency to be for a new JCPOA .
By 2022 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ development , Iran will be a nuclear threshold state and none of the current JCPOA provisions will be applicable .
Even as of now , the steps Iran has taken at Fordow are not easily reversible if Iran wish to maintain Fordow .
Iran will continue to adhere to no negotiation with the Trump Administration and the US .
The reason for this is because Iranians are starting to believe that the sanctions as designed right now are an asset to self-sufficiency .
While people like Zanganeh may not believe that , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ behave that way .
The resistance economy is working , but while the economy did contract , unemployment is less now than it was during the deal .
This is in part due to confidence-building in domestic production .
The Supreme Leader himself stated that the sanctions will not be removed in the next three years and Iranian officials should stop trying to have them removed .
More importantly , the unity of the government response to the recent protest is further proof that they have coalesced on overcoming sanctions rather than negotiate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Iranians have been removing technical limitations and R & D limits of the JCPOA not the legal framework .
The legal framework is the only thing that has to be maintained for Iran to be in compliance in light of the US withdrawal and Europe ’ s inability to bypass US sanctions .
The restoration of waivers will not be in exchange for Iran returning to full compliance with the JCPOA .
This compromise is essentially the French 15 billion credit proposal since the French would not put the money ahead .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ but waivers will not automatically lead to oil sales and banking transactions that Iran is currently creating alternative channels for .

The statements, views and opinions expressed in this column are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of this site. This site does not give financial, investment or medical advice.
Submitted by Mousumi Roy…
We are entering a dangerous period in the world , the middle east will flare up again, the US will continue to disrupt, and attempt ” regime change in Iran and Syria,” this will be meet with stiff resistance. Global economies will weaken, stock markets will not have much growth.
Trump is playing a very desperate and dangerous game to remain in power. Qassem Soleimani will forever be a controversial figure in the western world, but for an overwhelming majority of Iranians he was a hero, a martyr, and an incredibly popular figure. Qassem Soleimani was probably the single most respected military man not only amongst Shias and Christians, but also throughout the Middle East and around the world. He has been universally recognized as one of the most influential military commanders in the region for decades. This escalation by Trump is much bigger and more extreme than anyone is able to see from the face of it.
The assassination of Qassem Soleimani raises the stakes to a whole new level between Tehran and Washington. Without doubt one of the most serious moments between these two old foes in 4 decades. Iran already confirmed the incident. The attack on the U.S Embassy in Baghdad is a big one reminiscent of what happened forty years ago in Tehran. A nasty response was coming. I didn’t think the PMUs would be going about it unintelligently.
The fact that their initial act at the US embassy, which received a green light from Iraqi Security forces guarding the Green Zone, is ominous. The Iraqis have made it very clear they want the US to “reduce its presence” since they were invaded in 2003. In fact there is no formal agreement between Iraq and the US for the US troops to be there anyways. One way for the US to get around their “commitment” to leave Iraq, is the use of “contractors” not boots.
No serious ME watcher can consider the PMUs as boy scouts, but after all they are Iraqis that get good marks in its role of defeating ISIS. The Iranians cannot afford to lose Iraq because it’s a neighbor. The biggest problem is that there is no independent foreign policy towards Iraq. The Iraq policy is basically intertwined with the Iran policy and is part of a wider framework. Iraq currently risks becoming an independent state and the idea that Iraq can be an ‘ally’ of a country far away that destroyed it in 2003 based on false claims of WMD’s and democracy building is simply ridiculous. Iraq for Iraqis…
When Soleimani was operating close to opium fields in Afghanistan, he fought against the drug trade. After 9/11, he briefly worked with the Americans and captured or killed high-ranking al-Qaeda members, but the collaboration ended when George Bush declared Iran “evil” in a 2002 speech.
Soleimani came from a poor peasant family, worked in construction during his youth to pay off his father’s debts and lifted weights in his spare time. He joined the Revolutionary Guard briefly after the 1979 revolution, to serve his country during the Iran-Iraq War. When Iran was at war with Iraq, he rose up quickly through the ranks, and took part in every major operation. In fact, Soleimani described Operation Fath ol-Mobin (undeniable victory) as the best battle of his life, due to the odds being against his people and yet triumphing against Saddam’s guards despite that.
Soleimani was the leading figure behind the destruction of ISIS. Iran was the first country to respond to the Iraqi government’s call for help in 2014 with support for the Popular Mobilization Force (PMF). Support was offered despite Iran suffering under sanctions because ISIS represented an existential security threat to Iran itself. Without Iran’s early support ISIS would have seized much more territory and Iran’s support and the willingness of the PMF to fight ISIS was critical to the defeat of ISIS as a territorial entity in Iraq and Syria.
Iran is not going to negotiate in 2020 during the US elections, Rouhani will not be able to negotiate in 2021 during the Iranian presidential elections that he is not able to run in. There would have to be “a reformist” constituency to be for a new JCPOA. By 2022, even at current pace of nuclear development, Iran will be a nuclear threshold state and none of the current JCPOA provisions will be applicable. Even as of now, the steps Iran has taken at Fordow are not easily reversible if Iran wish to maintain Fordow.
Iran will continue to adhere to no negotiation with the Trump Administration and the US. The reason for this is because Iranians are starting to believe that the sanctions as designed right now are an asset to self-sufficiency. While people like Zanganeh may not believe that, the other industries in Iran are starting to behave that way. The resistance economy is working, but while the economy did contract, unemployment is less now than it was during the deal. This is in part due to confidence-building in domestic production. The Supreme Leader himself stated that the sanctions will not be removed in the next three years and Iranian officials should stop trying to have them removed.
More importantly, the unity of the government response to the recent protest is further proof that they have coalesced on overcoming sanctions rather than negotiate away the nuclear program. Also, the Iranians have been removing technical limitations and R&D limits of the JCPOA not the legal framework. The legal framework is the only thing that has to be maintained for Iran to be in compliance in light of the US withdrawal and Europe’s inability to bypass US sanctions.
The restoration of waivers will not be in exchange for Iran returning to full compliance with the JCPOA. This compromise is essentially the French 15 billion credit proposal since the French would not put the money ahead. It might be a goodwill gesture, but waivers will not automatically lead to oil sales and banking transactions that Iran is currently creating alternative channels for.
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