news--2020-03-10--Coronavirus: How is China recovering from the outbreak?

As coronavirus spreads through the rest of the world , China has reported a slowdown in its number of new infections .
On Monday , the country revealed it had just 19 new cases - which is the lowest number since mid-January - after the outbreak back in December .
The day before , it had 40 new cases of coronavirus .
It also marked the third straight day of no new domestically transmitted cases in mainland China outside of Hubei province , where Wuhan is located .
As the crackdown on the virus continues , President Xi Jinping made @ @ @ @ @ @ @ praised medical staff for their efforts .
What is the number of cases of COVID-19 in China currently ?
Currently , the country ( including Hong Kong and Macau ) has had 80,860 cases of COVID-19 which has resulted in 3,139 deaths , since 22 January .
The number of cases in China rose consistently until the beginning of February , when its efforts to combat the virus began working .
But on February 13 , the central province of Hubei then adopted a new diagnostic method that included clinical diagnoses in its @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of new cases to peak at more than 15,000 .
Cases then decreased the following day , before resuming the downward trend .
Why is the rate of COVID-19 slowing down in China ?
In recent weeks , the number of daily new cases in China has gone from almost 2,000 in February to under 100 .
Once the news broke of the virus and its dangers , China threw itself into recovery mode at an alarmingly quick pace .
Two specialist hospitals were built in Wuhan in just over a week , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ online platforms , and a 5G platform was rolled out allowing real-time contact and support for investigators in the field - even in remote areas .
Technology also included surveillance through phone apps such as WeChat to trace contacts of confirmed cases as well as making sure travel restrictions were obeyed .
Events were cancelled , leisure facilities were closed and business in the world 's second-largest economy stopped .
In February , experts from the World Health Organisation and China , Dr Bruce Aylward and Dr Wannian Liang , published a report @ @ @ @ @ @ @ illness .
It praised China 's reaction and earmarked the following things as key combating tools which has helped reduce the rise in cases : • The community offered `` solidarity '' to those who are ill and reacted with `` courage and conviction '' when it came to adhering to the containment guidelines • Governors and mayors have continued to send thousands of health care workers and tons of vital PPE supplies into Hubei province and Wuhan city • Chinese scientists have worked hard on clinical trials while doctors continuously open up @ @ @ @ @ @ @ • As the country began to recover , it reopened schools and offices to bolster the economy again .
How are their efforts working ?
Dr Liang and Dr Aylward 's report stated : `` In the face of a previously unknown virus , China has rolled out perhaps the most ambitious , agile and aggressive disease containment effort in history .
`` The strategy that underpinned this containment effort was initially a national approach that promoted universal temperature monitoring , masking , and hand washing .
`` However , as the outbreak @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a science and risk-based approach was taken to tailor implementation .
`` Specific containment measures were adjusted to the provincial , county and even community context , the capacity of the setting , and the nature of novel coronavirus transmission there . ''
What happens next ?
China is already working hard to return to a full state of normalcy following the outbreak .
Schools are reopening , people are returning to work and its makeshift hospitals are continuing to be closed as the number of active cases drops .
Commodity market analyst @ @ @ @ @ @ @ now coming back online and aiming for an increase in demand again .
`` The semi-fabricator industry is improving slowly , '' he said , adding that demand from the construction and infrastructure sectors was also improving , albeit at a slower pace .
Chinese stock markets have also began recovering , with President Xi 's visit helping lift the blue-chip index to 2.1 % higher at close of business on Tuesday .
: : Listen to the Daily podcast on Apple Podcasts , Google Podcasts , Spotify , Spreaker Why is President @ @ @ @ @ @ @ point ?
As other political leaders are withdrawing from public spaces for fear of the virus - such as the prime minister of India missing the country 's annual Holi celebration - the president marked a new dawn as he visited frontline workers in Wuhan to praise them for their efforts .
Professor Zhang Ming , of Renmin University , said : `` It is obvious that Xi could not have visited Wuhan earlier because the risk of him contracting the virus there was initially too high .
`` He is there now @ @ @ @ @ @ @ there means the CCP ( Chinese Communist Party ) may declare victory against the virus soon . ''
China was criticised over its early response to the outbreak , due to it suppressing information and downplaying risks , but its draconian efforts at control , including the lockdown of Wuhan and Hubei province , have been effective at curbing the spread .
Xi , who was mostly absent from Chinese state media coverage of the crisis in its early days , has become far more visible in recent weeks .

As coronavirus spreads through the rest of the world, China has reported a slowdown in its number of new infections.
On Monday, the country revealed it had just 19 new cases - which is the lowest number since mid-January - after the outbreak back in December.
The day before, it had 40 new cases of coronavirus.
It also marked the third straight day of no new domestically transmitted cases in mainland China outside of Hubei province, where Wuhan is located.
As the crackdown on the virus continues, President Xi Jinping made his first visit to Wuhan where he praised medical staff for their efforts.
What is the number of cases of COVID-19 in China currently?
Currently, the country (including Hong Kong and Macau) has had 80,860 cases of COVID-19 which has resulted in 3,139 deaths, since 22 January.
The number of cases in China rose consistently until the beginning of February, when its efforts to combat the virus began working.
But on February 13, the central province of Hubei then adopted a new diagnostic method that included clinical diagnoses in its official statistics.
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That caused the number of new cases to peak at more than 15,000.
Cases then decreased the following day, before resuming the downward trend.
Why is the rate of COVID-19 slowing down in China?
In recent weeks, the number of daily new cases in China has gone from almost 2,000 in February to under 100.
Once the news broke of the virus and its dangers, China threw itself into recovery mode at an alarmingly quick pace.
Two specialist hospitals were built in Wuhan in just over a week, many routine hospital provisions were transferred to online platforms, and a 5G platform was rolled out allowing real-time contact and support for investigators in the field - even in remote areas.
Technology also included surveillance through phone apps such as WeChat to trace contacts of confirmed cases as well as making sure travel restrictions were obeyed. Events were cancelled, leisure facilities were closed and business in the world's second-largest economy stopped.
In February, experts from the World Health Organisation and China, Dr Bruce Aylward and Dr Wannian Liang, published a report detailing the country's reaction to the illness.
It praised China's reaction and earmarked the following things as key combating tools which has helped reduce the rise in cases:
The community offered "solidarity" to those who are ill and reacted with "courage and conviction" when it came to adhering to the containment guidelines
Governors and mayors have continued to send thousands of health care workers and tons of vital PPE supplies into Hubei province and Wuhan city
Chinese scientists have worked hard on clinical trials while doctors continuously open up treatment beds as cured patients are discharged
As the country began to recover, it reopened schools and offices to bolster the economy again.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player 3:03 China battles to boost its battered economy
How are their efforts working?
Dr Liang and Dr Aylward's report stated: "In the face of a previously unknown virus, China has rolled out perhaps the most ambitious, agile and aggressive disease containment effort in history.
"The strategy that underpinned this containment effort was initially a national approach that promoted universal temperature monitoring, masking, and hand washing.
"However, as the outbreak evolved, and knowledge was gained, a science and risk-based approach was taken to tailor implementation.
"Specific containment measures were adjusted to the provincial, county and even community context, the capacity of the setting, and the nature of novel coronavirus transmission there."
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player 3:16 How to contain a global pandemic
What happens next?
China is already working hard to return to a full state of normalcy following the outbreak.
Schools are reopening, people are returning to work and its makeshift hospitals are continuing to be closed as the number of active cases drops.
Commodity market analyst He Tianyu said factories in China are now coming back online and aiming for an increase in demand again.
"The semi-fabricator industry is improving slowly," he said, adding that demand from the construction and infrastructure sectors was also improving, albeit at a slower pace.
Chinese stock markets have also began recovering, with President Xi's visit helping lift the blue-chip index to 2.1% higher at close of business on Tuesday.
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Why is President Xi Jinping's visit such a turning point?
As other political leaders are withdrawing from public spaces for fear of the virus - such as the prime minister of India missing the country's annual Holi celebration - the president marked a new dawn as he visited frontline workers in Wuhan to praise them for their efforts.
Professor Zhang Ming, of Renmin University, said: "It is obvious that Xi could not have visited Wuhan earlier because the risk of him contracting the virus there was initially too high.
"He is there now to reap the harvest. His being there means the CCP (Chinese Communist Party) may declare victory against the virus soon."
China was criticised over its early response to the outbreak, due to it suppressing information and downplaying risks, but its draconian efforts at control, including the lockdown of Wuhan and Hubei province, have been effective at curbing the spread.
Xi, who was mostly absent from Chinese state media coverage of the crisis in its early days, has become far more visible in recent weeks.


news--2020-03-09--Coronavirus: Can the NHS cope with the increase in demand?

Ministers have accepted that the coronavirus outbreak will spread in a `` significant way ’ '' within the UK , meaning many people are likely to need hospital treatment .
So can the NHS cope with the increase in demand ?
There are 30 hospitals on standby across the UK which have infectious disease units that can isolate patients .
Five of those are specialist infection centres in England - The Royal Free and St Thomas ' , in London , the Royal in Liverpool , Royal Hallamshire in Sheffield and Royal Victoria Infirmary in Newcastle .
Most of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have been taken to these specialist centres - capable of caring for more than 100 patients at any one time combined .
NHS England is now on its highest emergency alert - `` level four '' - which means other hospitals are also preparing for extra patients .
The government 's chief medical adviser Professor Chris Witty has said that critical care beds in the NHS could come under intense pressure during a coronavirus epidemic , and told MPs the UK had mainly moved to the delay stage of tackling the virus .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ in England ?
Public Health England say one in every 20 coronavirus patients could need critical care , based on China 's experience .
NHS England has 4,048 adult critical care beds - around seven beds for every 100,000 people .
By comparison , Italy - the European epicentre of the coronavirus - has more than 12 beds per 100,000 people , while Germany has more than 29 beds per 100,000 people .
In Europe as a whole , there are 11.5 critical care beds on average per 100,000 head of population .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ care beds in England and 3,038 beds occupied according to latest figures published by NHS data in December .
Critical care beds run at between 70 % and 80 % capacity most months , according to data from NHS Digital .
Figures vary by region , with almost 80 % of beds occupied in London compared to 68 % in the eastern region .
Across the UK , the bed fill rate for Northern Ireland and Wales was estimated to be at least 95 % , while Scotland was 84 % .
Are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ outbreak ?
Three out of five critical care units said they did not have enough nursing staff , according to a 2018 Faculty of Intensive Medical Care ( FICM ) survey .
Meanwhile , two out of five units had to close beds due to staffing shortages on at least a weekly basis across the UK - with only 14 % of units not having to close beds .
This is expected to become a wider problem if staff become ill or have to look after relatives as the outbreak escalates .
There @ @ @ @ @ @ @ closures across the UK , which puts more pressure on the whole health and care system and not just the response to coronavirus .
On Monday , University Hospital Southampton closed its surgical high dependency unit to new admissions after a staff member tested positive .
Doctors are reporting of a shortage of clinical masks and surgical protection supplies - most of which are imported from China .
NHS staff say they are unable to get hold of some face masks and other specialist personal protective equipment ( PPE ) - required to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Wales are expected to receive packs of protective face masks , gloves and aprons this week to support their treatment of people with suspected coronavirus .
In response , the Department of Health and Social Care said it would now release the UK 's stockpile of equipment set aside for when the country faces a pandemic disease - despite coronavirus not yet being classified as a pandemic .
A Department of Health and Social Care spokesperson told Sky News : `` We maintain large stockpiles of a range of personal protective equipment ( @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and these are being released in a controlled manner to help ensure the uninterrupted supply to the NHS .
`` In line with well-established procedures , the NHS is managing a rise in demand for certain types of PPE across the NHS above normal levels .
There is no need for local stockpiling . ''
Despite a peak in hospital admissions for flu in December , latest UK flu figures do give some cause for optimism .
Compared to last year , the number of people admitted to hospital has been down considerably @ @ @ @ @ @ @ means the NHS is unlikely to have to cope with a peak in cases for both flu and COVID-19 simultaneously .
Even if admissions for coronavirus totalled twice that of the swine flu outbreak of 2009/10 ( 26,000 ) , then it would still only represent a one per cent increase .

Ministers have accepted that the coronavirus outbreak will spread in a "significant way’" within the UK, meaning many people are likely to need hospital treatment. So can the NHS cope with the increase in demand?
There are 30 hospitals on standby across the UK which have infectious disease units that can isolate patients.
Five of those are specialist infection centres in England - The Royal Free and St Thomas', in London, the Royal in Liverpool, Royal Hallamshire in Sheffield and Royal Victoria Infirmary in Newcastle.
Most of the people who have tested positive for COVID-19 have been taken to these specialist centres - capable of caring for more than 100 patients at any one time combined.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player 0:47 UK may move to 'delay' phase of coronavirus response soon
NHS England is now on its highest emergency alert - "level four" - which means other hospitals are also preparing for extra patients.
The government's chief medical adviser Professor Chris Witty has said that critical care beds in the NHS could come under intense pressure during a coronavirus epidemic, and told MPs the UK had mainly moved to the delay stage of tackling the virus.
How many critical care beds are there in England?
Public Health England say one in every 20 coronavirus patients could need critical care, based on China's experience.
NHS England has 4,048 adult critical care beds - around seven beds for every 100,000 people.
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By comparison, Italy - the European epicentre of the coronavirus - has more than 12 beds per 100,000 people, while Germany has more than 29 beds per 100,000 people.
In Europe as a whole, there are 11.5 critical care beds on average per 100,000 head of population.
Bed numbers per England region
While data shows there are 4,048 critical care beds in England and 3,038 beds occupied according to latest figures published by NHS data in December.
Critical care beds run at between 70% and 80% capacity most months, according to data from NHS Digital.
Figures vary by region, with almost 80% of beds occupied in London compared to 68% in the eastern region.
Across the UK, the bed fill rate for Northern Ireland and Wales was estimated to be at least 95%, while Scotland was 84%.
Are there enough nurses to cope with an outbreak?
Three out of five critical care units said they did not have enough nursing staff, according to a 2018 Faculty of Intensive Medical Care (FICM) survey.
Meanwhile, two out of five units had to close beds due to staffing shortages on at least a weekly basis across the UK - with only 14% of units not having to close beds.
Image: NHS staff supporting Scotland's public information response to coronavirus work at the NHS 24 contact centre in Glasgow
This is expected to become a wider problem if staff become ill or have to look after relatives as the outbreak escalates.
There have also been several temporary GP practice closures across the UK, which puts more pressure on the whole health and care system and not just the response to coronavirus.
On Monday, University Hospital Southampton closed its surgical high dependency unit to new admissions after a staff member tested positive.
Shortage of supplies
Doctors are reporting of a shortage of clinical masks and surgical protection supplies - most of which are imported from China.
NHS staff say they are unable to get hold of some face masks and other specialist personal protective equipment (PPE) - required to prevent them falling ill.
GP surgeries in Wales are expected to receive packs of protective face masks, gloves and aprons this week to support their treatment of people with suspected coronavirus.
In response, the Department of Health and Social Care said it would now release the UK's stockpile of equipment set aside for when the country faces a pandemic disease - despite coronavirus not yet being classified as a pandemic.
A Department of Health and Social Care spokesperson told Sky News: "We maintain large stockpiles of a range of personal protective equipment (PPE), including face masks, and these are being released in a controlled manner to help ensure the uninterrupted supply to the NHS.
Image: A worker in protective clothing at the Warmdene doctor's surgery at County Oak Medical Centre in Brighton
"In line with well-established procedures, the NHS is managing a rise in demand for certain types of PPE across the NHS above normal levels. There is no need for local stockpiling."
Hospital flu admissions
Despite a peak in hospital admissions for flu in December, latest UK flu figures do give some cause for optimism.
Image: Flu hospital admissions 2019-2020, according to Public Health England
Compared to last year, the number of people admitted to hospital has been down considerably since the end of January. This means the NHS is unlikely to have to cope with a peak in cases for both flu and COVID-19 simultaneously.
Last year, NHS England coped with 6.3 million unplanned admissions.
Even if admissions for coronavirus totalled twice that of the swine flu outbreak of 2009/10 (26,000), then it would still only represent a one per cent increase.
Virus Outbreak: Global Emergency - Watch a special Sky News programme on coronavirus at 6pm weekdays
Virus Outbreak: Your questions answered #AskSkyNews at 12.30pm weekdays


news--2020-03-10--Treasury to push back target date for selling bailed-out RBS

The government is poised to put back its target date for selling its stake in Royal Bank of Scotland ( RBS ) as turbulent stock markets hamper the prospects for an imminent reduction in its shareholding .
Sky News has learnt that the Treasury is expected to disclose alongside the budget this week that the projected timetable for disposing of the state 's 62 % stake has slipped to at least 2025 .
A source close to the bank said on Tuesday that the further delay would come as little surprise , given that the government had not sold any @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Ministers have always insisted that any disposals would be subject to value-for-money considerations and market conditions .
The most recent sale , which involved 7.7 % of RBS , was undertaken at a price of 271p-a-share .
The state-backed bank 's value has fallen since the Brexit referendum , as well as being impaired more recently by ongoing stock market turbulence triggered by the coronavirus outbreak and fears of an oil price war .
On Tuesday morning , shares in RBS were trading at around 148p .
With a decade of ultra-low @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the potential for a leap in banks ' profitability appears remote .
If the government is to achieve the revised target of selling the remaining RBS stake by 2025 , it may crystallise bigger-than-expected losses on the £45.5bn pumped into the bank to keep it afloat in 2008 .
Under Alison Rose , its new chief executive , RBS has announced plans to pare back its investment banking activities and take a further axe to costs .
Thousands more jobs are eventually likely to go , continuing the shrinking of the once-colossal @ @ @ @ @ @ @ one stage during Mr Goodwin 's reign , RBS was the biggest bank in the world by assets .
Ms Rose has said the company will change its name to NatWest Group , as part of her efforts to distance it from its tainted past .
Unveiling annual profits of just over £3bn last month , Ms Rose said she would reposition RBS as a `` purpose-led '' business that would be committed to helping customers in difficulty and play a part in tackling climate change by ceasing the financing of carbon-emitting projects @ @ @ @ @ @ @ shake-up of the bank 's top team , announcing the departure of Mark Bailie , the chief executive of Bo , its digital bank .
A search is also underway for a successor to Les Matheson , chief executive of personal banking .
Ms Rose has also changed the leadership of NatWest Markets , part of RBS 's non-ring-fenced bank , with a new chief executive and finance chief to be appointed in the coming months .
RBS named a new finance chief , Katie Murray , about 18 months ago , meaning @ @ @ @ @ @ @ all-female top executive teams in the FTSE-100 .
The Treasury and RBS declined to comment .

The government is poised to put back its target date for selling its stake in Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) as turbulent stock markets hamper the prospects for an imminent reduction in its shareholding.
Sky News has learnt that the Treasury is expected to disclose alongside the budget this week that the projected timetable for disposing of the state's 62% stake has slipped to at least 2025.
A source close to the bank said on Tuesday that the further delay would come as little surprise, given that the government had not sold any of its RBS shares since June 2018.
Ministers have always insisted that any disposals would be subject to value-for-money considerations and market conditions.
The most recent sale, which involved 7.7% of RBS, was undertaken at a price of 271p-a-share.
The state-backed bank's value has fallen since the Brexit referendum, as well as being impaired more recently by ongoing stock market turbulence triggered by the coronavirus outbreak and fears of an oil price war.
On Tuesday morning, shares in RBS were trading at around 148p.
With a decade of ultra-low interest rates likely to continue for years, the potential for a leap in banks' profitability appears remote.
If the government is to achieve the revised target of selling the remaining RBS stake by 2025, it may crystallise bigger-than-expected losses on the £45.5bn pumped into the bank to keep it afloat in 2008.
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Under Alison Rose, its new chief executive, RBS has announced plans to pare back its investment banking activities and take a further axe to costs.
Image: Alison Rose succeeded Ross McEwan as chief executive of Royal Bank of Scotland. Pic: RBS
Thousands more jobs are eventually likely to go, continuing the shrinking of the once-colossal empire run by Fred Goodwin.
At one stage during Mr Goodwin's reign, RBS was the biggest bank in the world by assets.
Ms Rose has said the company will change its name to NatWest Group, as part of her efforts to distance it from its tainted past.
Unveiling annual profits of just over £3bn last month, Ms Rose said she would reposition RBS as a "purpose-led" business that would be committed to helping customers in difficulty and play a part in tackling climate change by ceasing the financing of carbon-emitting projects.
The new chief has begun a shake-up of the bank's top team, announcing the departure of Mark Bailie, the chief executive of Bo, its digital bank.
A search is also underway for a successor to Les Matheson, chief executive of personal banking.
Ms Rose has also changed the leadership of NatWest Markets, part of RBS's non-ring-fenced bank, with a new chief executive and finance chief to be appointed in the coming months.
RBS named a new finance chief, Katie Murray, about 18 months ago, meaning it now has one of the few all-female top executive teams in the FTSE-100.
The Treasury and RBS declined to comment.


news--2020-03-10--Coronavirus blamed for high street woes as shoppers shun crowds

Coronavirus is being blamed for continuing high street woes , as consumers opt for takeaways and box sets over shopping with the crowds .
Barclaycard , which handles nearly half of the UK 's credit and debit card transactions , said nearly three in 10 shoppers avoided the high street and other busy places in February due to virus fears .
Meanwhile , spending on takeaways and fast food increased by 8.7 % on an annual basis and digital content and subscriptions spending was up 12.4 % .
Spending on airlines and travel agents decreased by 0.7 % and 0.3 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on clothing fell by 1.7 % annually .
More than a third ( 36 % ) of adults surveyed also said they are being prudent with their spending and more than half ( 54 % ) are worried about the rising prices of necessities .
Esme Harwood , director at Barclaycard , said : `` Storms , floods , and fears about the spread of coronavirus have kept many Brits away from the high street this month .
`` Despite this , broader consumer spending has held up as people put their money @ @ @ @ @ @ @ . ''
Retail sales were up only slightly during February , according to another report by the British Retail Consortium and KPMG .
The BRC-KPMG sales monitor said retail sales increased by just 0.1 % but were down by 0.4 % compared with a year earlier on a like-for-like basis .
Helen Dickinson , chief executive of the BRC , said : `` Despite many indicators suggesting a rise in confidence among UK shoppers in recent months , this has failed to translate into higher retail sales .
`` However , the end @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in spending on food and healthcare as a result of concerns around coronavirus . ''
Paul Martin , UK head of retail at KPMG said : `` The highly anticipated 'Boris bounce ' has clearly struggled to materialise in the embroiled retail sector , and looking ahead , COVID-19 is n't likely to help matters . ''
He said the subdued grocery sector has shown a slight recovery , adding : `` Although the edging up of prices will have contributed to that growth .
In the short-term , any potential supply chain @ @ @ @ @ @ @ acutely by grocers , so developments will have to be watched closely . ''

Coronavirus is being blamed for continuing high street woes, as consumers opt for takeaways and box sets over shopping with the crowds.
Barclaycard, which handles nearly half of the UK's credit and debit card transactions, said nearly three in 10 shoppers avoided the high street and other busy places in February due to virus fears.
Meanwhile, spending on takeaways and fast food increased by 8.7% on an annual basis and digital content and subscriptions spending was up 12.4%.
Spending on airlines and travel agents decreased by 0.7% and 0.3% annually in February, while spending on clothing fell by 1.7% annually.
Supermarket spending saw a 1.3% annual increase.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player 1:48 Ed Conway explains the extent to which the markets have been affected by coronavirus fears
More than a third (36%) of adults surveyed also said they are being prudent with their spending and more than half (54%) are worried about the rising prices of necessities.
Esme Harwood, director at Barclaycard, said: "Storms, floods, and fears about the spread of coronavirus have kept many Brits away from the high street this month.
"Despite this, broader consumer spending has held up as people put their money towards enjoying a takeaway and digital subscriptions."
Retail sales were up only slightly during February, according to another report by the British Retail Consortium and KPMG.
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The BRC-KPMG sales monitor said retail sales increased by just 0.1% but were down by 0.4% compared with a year earlier on a like-for-like basis.
Helen Dickinson, chief executive of the BRC, said: "Despite many indicators suggesting a rise in confidence among UK shoppers in recent months, this has failed to translate into higher retail sales.
"However, the end of the month saw a slight rise in spending on food and healthcare as a result of concerns around coronavirus."
Paul Martin, UK head of retail at KPMG said: "The highly anticipated 'Boris bounce' has clearly struggled to materialise in the embroiled retail sector, and looking ahead, COVID-19 isn't likely to help matters."
He said the subdued grocery sector has shown a slight recovery, adding: "Although the edging up of prices will have contributed to that growth. In the short-term, any potential supply chain disruption caused by COVID-19 will be felt acutely by grocers, so developments will have to be watched closely."
Virus Outbreak: Global Emergency - Watch a special Sky News programme on coronavirus at 6pm weekdays
Virus Outbreak: Your questions answered #AskSkyNews at 12.30pm weekdays


news--2020-03-10--Coronavirus: US stocks recover ground after Monday's crash - Dow finishes up 1,100 points

US stocks have staged a recovery following their worst day since the 2008 financial crisis , while the FTSE 100 again found itself in negative territory .
In the US , the S & P 500 and Nasdaq both enjoyed their biggest percentage gains since December 2018 .
The Dow Jones finished up 4.89 % - gaining more than 1,100 points .
The S & P 500 was up 2.8 % and the Nasdaq rose by 4.69 % .
Among the big gainers were airlines and cruise ship stocks - battered by a fall in demand for travel since the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that government and limited central bank aid will have a real effect on limiting damage to the global economy in the months to come as the coronavirus crisis deepens .
One reason for the change in sentiment was Donald Trump announcement of `` major '' steps to guard the US economy against the impact of the coronavirus outbreak .
In London , the FTSE rose by just over 1.2 % at the open but closed down 0.9 % .
The early surge was partly aided by a recovery in Brent crude oil , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 37 a barrel following Monday 's price collapse .
Monday had seen a crash in values globally , blamed on a surge in COVID-19 cases and Saudi threats of an oil price war , which combined to send investors running for the hills .
It culminated in the fifth-biggest one day fall in the FTSE 's history , while trading in US shares was suspended after declines triggered so-called circuit breakers , designed to help limit intense volatility .
Gains fluctuated when Saudi Arabia confirmed plans to raise production by 2.6 million barrels @ @ @ @ @ @ @ levels , following Russia 's refusal to help stabilise prices through output cuts .
Energy , travel , and mining stocks were seeing the greatest relief in London , with TUI , easyJet and Shell leading the way .
The MIB in Italy - a country under lockdown to fight the spread of COVID-19 - closed down 3.2 % after a fall of 11 % on Monday .
In the UK , the Bank of England has been working in co-ordination with the Treasury on how businesses can be supported ahead of possible @ @ @ @ @ @ @ their progress to the City on Tuesday , the furniture retailer DFS said it had just started to see an impact on customer numbers .
It refused to give guidance on expectations for the 12 months to June as the outbreak evolves but said it would expect weaker sales volumes in the short term to catch up later in the year .
Safestay , the hostel operator , warned of a `` material reduction '' in new bookings and cancellations .
The budget on Wednesday is expected to be used to announce support @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Sunak pledges to give the NHS what it needs to deliver the best possible care .

US stocks have staged a recovery following their worst day since the 2008 financial crisis, while the FTSE 100 again found itself in negative territory.
In the US, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both enjoyed their biggest percentage gains since December 2018.
The Dow Jones finished up 4.89% - gaining more than 1,100 points. The S&P 500 was up 2.8% and the Nasdaq rose by 4.69%.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player 1:48 Coronavirus: How have the markets suffered?
Among the big gainers were airlines and cruise ship stocks - battered by a fall in demand for travel since the coronavirus outbreak.
American Airlines jumped 15.3% and Delta Air Lines rose 4.5%. Royal Caribbean Cruises climbed 7% and Carnival rose 10.5%.
The gains reflect hopes that government and limited central bank aid will have a real effect on limiting damage to the global economy in the months to come as the coronavirus crisis deepens.
One reason for the change in sentiment was Donald Trump announcement of "major" steps to guard the US economy against the impact of the coronavirus outbreak.
In London, the FTSE rose by just over 1.2% at the open but closed down 0.9%. The early surge was partly aided by a recovery in Brent crude oil, which was trading at just under $37 a barrel following Monday's price collapse.
Monday had seen a crash in values globally, blamed on a surge in COVID-19 cases and Saudi threats of an oil price war, which combined to send investors running for the hills.
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It culminated in the fifth-biggest one day fall in the FTSE's history, while trading in US shares was suspended after declines triggered so-called circuit breakers, designed to help limit intense volatility.
Gains fluctuated when Saudi Arabia confirmed plans to raise production by 2.6 million barrels per day in April, to record levels, following Russia's refusal to help stabilise prices through output cuts.
Energy, travel, and mining stocks were seeing the greatest relief in London, with TUI, easyJet and Shell leading the way.
The MIB in Italy - a country under lockdown to fight the spread of COVID-19 - closed down 3.2% after a fall of 11% on Monday.
In the UK, the Bank of England has been working in co-ordination with the Treasury on how businesses can be supported ahead of possible supply chain disruption.
Among companies reporting their progress to the City on Tuesday, the furniture retailer DFS said it had just started to see an impact on customer numbers.
It refused to give guidance on expectations for the 12 months to June as the outbreak evolves but said it would expect weaker sales volumes in the short term to catch up later in the year.
Safestay, the hostel operator, warned of a "material reduction" in new bookings and cancellations.
The budget on Wednesday is expected to be used to announce support for UK firms - as chancellor Rishi Sunak pledges to give the NHS what it needs to deliver the best possible care.


news--2020-03-10--Coronavirus: Sixth person dies in UK as confirmed cases rise to 382

A sixth person has died after testing positive for coronavirus in the UK , with the number of confirmed cases rising to 382 .
There were 54 new cases in the 24 hours to 9am on Tuesday morning .
By comparison , 46 new cases of COVID-19 - the disease caused by coronavirus - were identified in the 24 hours to 9am on Monday morning .
West Hertfordshire Hospitals NHS Trust said the latest man who died was being cared for at Watford General Hospital .
`` The patient , who died in the evening of Monday 9 March , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ underlying health conditions , '' the trust said in a statement .
`` His family has been informed and our thoughts and condolences are with them at this difficult and distressing time . ''
Regionally , there are now 15 people infected with coronavirus in Wales , 16 in Northern Ireland and 27 in Scotland .
The number in England is 324 .
A total of 26,261 people have been tested across the UK .
Health authorities in Ireland said a further 10 cases had been confirmed there - taking the total to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hospital in London said a health worker in its cardiology department had tested positive for COVID-19 , and it was cancelling some non-essential cardiac operations for two weeks .
Anyone who came into close contact with the person is `` being informed and will be offered advice '' and `` all essential treatment is being carried out '' .
The Independent Food Aid Network said some food banks were starting to run out of basics because of stockpiling and a fall in donations since the outbreak began .
Dr Jenny Harries , England @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the start of a peak of cases could come in the next 10 to 14 days , and that people with symptoms would then be advised to self-isolate .
The son of a 60-year-old man who died on Sunday , about a week after returning from northern Italy , said his father became unwell `` instantly '' .
He told the BBC it was difficult to believe because `` two months ago this thing did n't even exist and it took away my father '' .
Jonathan Evans , lead biomedical scientist at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , said the outbreak was the `` fastest evolving situation '' of his career .
`` We 're routinely looking at around 50 cases a day , but we 're all aware that number is going to increase significantly over the next few weeks , '' he added .
The latest cases in Northern Ireland are connected to recent travel to northern Italy .
Chief medical officer Michael McBride said it was a question of `` when , not if , we see community transmission ( here ) '' .
Anyone returning to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Monday is advised to stay indoors and avoid contact with other people - even if they have no symptoms .
The Department of Health said the same applied to anyone coming back from Iran in the last 14 days , from Hubei province in China in the last fortnight , and from Daegu , Cheongdo or Gyeongsan in South Korea in the last two weeks .
It takes five days for COVID-19 symptoms to show , according to a major new scientific study .
British Airways and Ryanair are to suspend all flights @ @ @ @ @ @ @ nation was placed in lockdown in response to the coronavirus outbreak .
The country has recorded 10,149 cases of Covid-19 , and 631 deaths .
An easyJet spokesman said on Tuesday evening that it was in the `` process of cancelling all of its existing scheduled flights touching Italy between 10 March and 3 April '' , adding that it would be `` operating some rescue flights in the coming days '' .
An Italian doctor at the heart of the crisis has said it was like relentless war .
Globally , there @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and over 4,200 deaths , according to figures collated by Johns Hopkins University .
The worldwide peak will happen next winter , a scientific model has predicted .
The Foreign Office said it was in contact with Britons in Vietnam after seven UK citizens were said to be among nine new cases on board the same flight from London to Hanoi on 2 March .
Trinity College Dublin and Harvard University in Massachusetts said they were moving lessons online .
Earlier , Dr Harries told Sky News that the UK will see `` @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Speaking to Sky 's Kay Burley @ Breakfast , she said there would be `` significant numbers in a way which I think the country is not used to '' .
She added : `` So , large numbers of the population will become infected , but because it 's a naive population , nobody has got antibodies to this virus currently .
`` Having said that , 99 % of those will almost certainly get better and most people will have a really quite mild disease and will not need to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ can be managed very safely and appropriately at home .
`` The important thing for us is to make sure that we manage those infections and make sure that those individuals who are most affected - our elderly people , particularly those with chronic underlying conditions - get in touch and get treatment .
We [ can ] support other people in the home environment . ''
• Prime Minister Boris Johnson says the UK is still in `` containment '' phase - but the outbreak could get `` much more significant '' @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for seven days if they have even a mild fever in the coming weeks • Italy has closed down entirely , limiting the movement of citizens as it struggles to contain the disease • Two of this weekend 's Six Nations games have been cancelled over coronavirus fears • Cruise ship carrying more than 140 Britons docks in Los Angeles after at least 21 people contract virus on board • The New York Stock Exchange briefly crashed on Monday after oil prices plummeted due to fall in demand because coronavirus - the markets @ @ @ @ @

A sixth person has died after testing positive for coronavirus in the UK, with the number of confirmed cases rising to 382.
There were 54 new cases in the 24 hours to 9am on Tuesday morning.
By comparison, 46 new cases of COVID-19 - the disease caused by coronavirus - were identified in the 24 hours to 9am on Monday morning.
West Hertfordshire Hospitals NHS Trust said the latest man who died was being cared for at Watford General Hospital.
"The patient, who died in the evening of Monday 9 March, was in his early 80s and had underlying health conditions," the trust said in a statement.
"His family has been informed and our thoughts and condolences are with them at this difficult and distressing time."
Regionally, there are now 15 people infected with coronavirus in Wales, 16 in Northern Ireland and 27 in Scotland. The number in England is 324. A total of 26,261 people have been tested across the UK.
Health authorities in Ireland said a further 10 cases had been confirmed there - taking the total to 34.
Great Ormond Street children's hospital in London said a health worker in its cardiology department had tested positive for COVID-19, and it was cancelling some non-essential cardiac operations for two weeks.
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Anyone who came into close contact with the person is "being informed and will be offered advice" and "all essential treatment is being carried out".
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player 13:31 Coronavirus: How worried should we be?
The Independent Food Aid Network said some food banks were starting to run out of basics because of stockpiling and a fall in donations since the outbreak began.
Dr Jenny Harries, England's deputy chief medical officer, said the start of a peak of cases could come in the next 10 to 14 days, and that people with symptoms would then be advised to self-isolate.
The son of a 60-year-old man who died on Sunday, about a week after returning from northern Italy, said his father became unwell "instantly".
He told the BBC it was difficult to believe because "two months ago this thing didn't even exist and it took away my father".
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player 0:34 Under European law, carriers have to fill their slots at major airports at least 80% of the time or they risk losing them.
Jonathan Evans, lead biomedical scientist at Wales' COVID-19 testing centre in Cardiff, said the outbreak was the "fastest evolving situation" of his career.
"We're routinely looking at around 50 cases a day, but we're all aware that number is going to increase significantly over the next few weeks," he added.
The latest cases in Northern Ireland are connected to recent travel to northern Italy.
Chief medical officer Michael McBride said it was a question of "when, not if, we see community transmission (here)".
Anyone returning to Britain from any part of Italy since Monday is advised to stay indoors and avoid contact with other people - even if they have no symptoms.
The Department of Health said the same applied to anyone coming back from Iran in the last 14 days, from Hubei province in China in the last fortnight, and from Daegu, Cheongdo or Gyeongsan in South Korea in the last two weeks.
It takes five days for COVID-19 symptoms to show, according to a major new scientific study.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player 0:16 Dutch PM Mark Rutte shook hands with a health official after telling people to avoid handshakes because of the coronavirus.
British Airways and Ryanair are to suspend all flights to and from Italy after the entire nation was placed in lockdown in response to the coronavirus outbreak.
The country has recorded 10,149 cases of Covid-19, and 631 deaths.
An easyJet spokesman said on Tuesday evening that it was in the "process of cancelling all of its existing scheduled flights touching Italy between 10 March and 3 April", adding that it would be "operating some rescue flights in the coming days".
An Italian doctor at the heart of the crisis has said it was like relentless war.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player 2:39 Coronavirus quarantine: What happens now?
Globally, there are more than 118,000 confirmed cases, and over 4,200 deaths, according to figures collated by Johns Hopkins University. The worldwide peak will happen next winter, a scientific model has predicted.
The Foreign Office said it was in contact with Britons in Vietnam after seven UK citizens were said to be among nine new cases on board the same flight from London to Hanoi on 2 March.
Trinity College Dublin and Harvard University in Massachusetts said they were moving lessons online.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player 3:16 How to contain a global pandemic
Earlier, Dr Harries told Sky News that the UK will see "many thousands of people" contract coronavirus.
Speaking to Sky's Kay Burley@Breakfast, she said there would be "significant numbers in a way which I think the country is not used to".
She added: "So, large numbers of the population will become infected, but because it's a naive population, nobody has got antibodies to this virus currently.
"Having said that, 99% of those will almost certainly get better and most people will have a really quite mild disease and will not need to be in hospital. [They] can be managed very safely and appropriately at home.
"The important thing for us is to make sure that we manage those infections and make sure that those individuals who are most affected - our elderly people, particularly those with chronic underlying conditions - get in touch and get treatment. We [can] support other people in the home environment."
Key coronavirus developments:


news--2020-03-10--Coronavirus: Health minister Nadine Dorries tests positive for COVID-19

Health minister Nadine Dorries has tested positive for coronavirus and a member of her staff is ill. Ms Dorries is self-isolating at home and has appealed to fellow MPs to get in touch if they have recently been in contact with her , Sky News understands .
She is the first MP in the UK to be diagnosed with COVID-19 , as the virus spread further on Tuesday .
Labour 's Rachael Maskell revealed she had been advised by the NHS 111 helpline to self-isolate following a meeting with Ms Dorries last Thursday , even though she is displaying no @ @ @ @ @ @ @ News she would continue her work as an MP by holding meetings over the phone , adding : `` This will become a norm over the coming weeks and days as we are seeing more people being diagnosed with coronavirus . ''
Ms Maskell suggested Prime Minister Boris Johnson - who was at a Downing Street event with Ms Dorries last Thursday - should also now seek NHS advice .
`` Everybody has got to take the advice of Public Health England and therefore I trust the prime minister has also contacted NHS @ @ @ @ @ @ @ There 's nothing special about him , he 's another person and like any of us , he could spread this virus .
`` Therefore he must take that public health advice in the same way that I have taken the public health advice . ''
A Number 10 source said the prime minister has no coronavirus symptoms and so there is no need for him to be tested .
It is understood he was not in close contact with Ms Dorries at last Thursday 's event .
Mr Johnson wished Ms Dorries @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cabinet meeting on Wednesday morning , Downing Street said .
Ms Dorries , the minister in charge of patient safety , said in a statement that she `` took all the advised precautions and have been self-isolating at home '' since being informed she had tested positive .
`` Public Health England ( PHE ) has started detailed contact tracing and the department and my parliamentary office are closely following their advice , '' she said .
`` I would like to thank PHE and the wonderful NHS staff who have provided me @ @ @ @ @ @ @ added in a tweet : `` It 's been pretty rubbish but I hope I 'm over the worst of it now .
More worried about my 84yo mum who is staying with me and began with the cough today .
She is being tested tomorrow . ''
Ms Dorries has also sent a message on the WhatsApp group for Tory MPs to ask them to get in touch if they were in contact with her .
The MP first showed symptoms on Thursday - the same day she attended the Downing Street @ @ @ @ @ @ @ International Women 's Day , according to a health department spokesman .
Ms Dorries has voted twice in the House of Commons in the past week , according to parliamentary records - likely meaning she has been in close contact with hundreds of MPs .
She also spoke in a debate on eating disorders in Westminster Hall , on the parliamentary estate , last Thursday .
However , there are currently no plans to suspend parliament .
The 62-year-old also met people at a constituency surgery in Bedfordshire on Saturday .
Health Secretary @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sorry '' to hear the news but that `` she has done the right thing by self-isolating at home '' .
He added : `` We all wish her well as she recovers . ''
• A sixth person has died after testing positive for coronavirus in the UK ; confirmed cases rise to 382 • NHS in England to `` ramp up '' testing facilities so 10,000 tests can be done each day • Manchester City 's game against Arsenal tonight is postponed and players are self-isolating • A man is pulled @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in China nearly three days after it collapsed • South Korea reports 242 new coronavirus cases , bringing the country 's total infections to 7,755 • UN weather agency chief says decreased energy use due to the coronavirus is improving air quality in China A Department of Health and Social Care spokeswoman said Ms Dorries has been self-isolating at home since Friday .
Officials have begun the process of getting in touch with everyone she has come into contact with since displaying symptoms .
The DHSC spokeswoman initially said all health ministers including @ @ @ @ @ @ @ but later retracted the statement .
It is understood Mr Hancock has n't seen Ms Dorries since last Tuesday and has not been tested for coronavirus .
A government source said officials and MPs should continue to go to work in Whitehall and parliament unless told otherwise .
`` CMO ( Chief Medical Officer ) advice is that no one needs to self-isolate or be tested unless asked to by the PHE contact tracers who are working round the clock , '' the source said .
After Ms Dorries ' diagnosis , a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to suspend parliament to prevent the spread of the virus .
But they are `` closely following '' guidance from Public Health England , the spokesman added .
Hannah Bardell , an SNP MP , said that would be tough as `` Westminster by its nature means we 're all corralled in there together at close proximity '' .
She added : `` It 's possibly one of the most germ infested unhealthy places I 've ever worked . ''
: : Listen to the Daily podcast on Apple Podcasts , Google Podcasts @ @ @ @ @ @ @ political editor Beth Rigby said that `` as a health minister in contact with other health ministers and officials the obvious question is whether there has been wider transmission in Department of Health team '' .
`` I understand Matt Hancock is in good health and not displaying any symptoms , '' she added .
Politicians from across the political divide sent messages wishing Ms Dorries a swift recovery .
Labour shadow cabinet member Luke Pollard tweeted : `` Politics should not get in the way of being decent human beings to one @ @ @

Health minister Nadine Dorries has tested positive for coronavirus and a member of her staff is ill.
Ms Dorries is self-isolating at home and has appealed to fellow MPs to get in touch if they have recently been in contact with her, Sky News understands.
She is the first MP in the UK to be diagnosed with COVID-19, as the virus spread further on Tuesday.
Labour's Rachael Maskell revealed she had been advised by the NHS 111 helpline to self-isolate following a meeting with Ms Dorries last Thursday, even though she is displaying no symptoms of COVID-19.
She told Sky News she would continue her work as an MP by holding meetings over the phone, adding: "This will become a norm over the coming weeks and days as we are seeing more people being diagnosed with coronavirus."
Ms Maskell suggested Prime Minister Boris Johnson - who was at a Downing Street event with Ms Dorries last Thursday - should also now seek NHS advice.
"Everybody has got to take the advice of Public Health England and therefore I trust the prime minister has also contacted NHS 111," she added.
"There's nothing special about him, he's another person and like any of us, he could spread this virus.
"Therefore he must take that public health advice in the same way that I have taken the public health advice."
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A Number 10 source said the prime minister has no coronavirus symptoms and so there is no need for him to be tested.
It is understood he was not in close contact with Ms Dorries at last Thursday's event.
Mr Johnson wished Ms Dorries a "speedy recovery" during a cabinet meeting on Wednesday morning, Downing Street said.
Ms Dorries, the minister in charge of patient safety, said in a statement that she "took all the advised precautions and have been self-isolating at home" since being informed she had tested positive.
"Public Health England (PHE) has started detailed contact tracing and the department and my parliamentary office are closely following their advice," she said.
"I would like to thank PHE and the wonderful NHS staff who have provided me with advice and support."
She added in a tweet: "It's been pretty rubbish but I hope I'm over the worst of it now. More worried about my 84yo mum who is staying with me and began with the cough today. She is being tested tomorrow."
Ms Dorries has also sent a message on the WhatsApp group for Tory MPs to ask them to get in touch if they were in contact with her.
The MP first showed symptoms on Thursday - the same day she attended the Downing Street event hosted by Mr Johnson to mark International Women's Day, according to a health department spokesman.
Image: Ms Dorries spoke in Westminster Hall on 5 March
Ms Dorries has voted twice in the House of Commons in the past week, according to parliamentary records - likely meaning she has been in close contact with hundreds of MPs.
She also spoke in a debate on eating disorders in Westminster Hall, on the parliamentary estate, last Thursday.
However, there are currently no plans to suspend parliament.
The 62-year-old also met people at a constituency surgery in Bedfordshire on Saturday.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player 3:16 How to contain a global pandemic
Health Secretary Matt Hancock said he was "really sorry" to hear the news but that "she has done the right thing by self-isolating at home".
He added: "We all wish her well as she recovers."
In other coronavirus developments:
A sixth person has died after testing positive for coronavirus in the UK; confirmed cases rise to 382
after testing positive for coronavirus in the UK; confirmed cases rise to 382 NHS in England to "ramp up" testing facilities so 10,000 tests can be done each day
Manchester City's game against Arsenal tonight is postponed and players are self-isolating
and players are self-isolating US festival Coachella pushed back until October
pushed back until October A man is pulled from the rubble of a quarantine hotel in China nearly three days after it collapsed
South Korea reports 242 new coronavirus cases, bringing the country's total infections to 7,755
UN weather agency chief says decreased energy use due to the coronavirus is improving air quality in China
Image: One MP called parliament 'one of the most germ-infested, unhealthy places I've ever worked'
A Department of Health and Social Care spokeswoman said Ms Dorries has been self-isolating at home since Friday.
Officials have begun the process of getting in touch with everyone she has come into contact with since displaying symptoms.
The DHSC spokeswoman initially said all health ministers including Mr Hancock were to undergo testing, but later retracted the statement.
It is understood Mr Hancock hasn't seen Ms Dorries since last Tuesday and has not been tested for coronavirus.
A government source said officials and MPs should continue to go to work in Whitehall and parliament unless told otherwise.
"CMO (Chief Medical Officer) advice is that no one needs to self-isolate or be tested unless asked to by the PHE contact tracers who are working round the clock," the source said.
After Ms Dorries' diagnosis, a parliament spokesman said there were no plans to suspend parliament to prevent the spread of the virus.
But they are "closely following" guidance from Public Health England, the spokesman added.
Hannah Bardell, an SNP MP, said that would be tough as "Westminster by its nature means we're all corralled in there together at close proximity".
She added: "It's possibly one of the most germ infested unhealthy places I've ever worked."
Image: Health Secretary Matt Hancock is said to be in good health
:: Listen to the Daily podcast on Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts, Spotify, Spreaker
Sky News' political editor Beth Rigby said that "as a health minister in contact with other health ministers and officials the obvious question is whether there has been wider transmission in Department of Health team".
"I understand Matt Hancock is in good health and not displaying any symptoms," she added.
Politicians from across the political divide sent messages wishing Ms Dorries a swift recovery.
Labour shadow cabinet member Luke Pollard tweeted: "Politics should not get in the way of being decent human beings to one another."
Virus Outbreak: Global Emergency - Watch a special Sky News programme on coronavirus at 6pm weekdays


news--2020-03-09--Coronavirus: Stock markets crash globally amid crisis and oil price war

Global stock markets have crashed , with trading even briefly suspended in the US , as worries over the coronavirus crisis intensify amid a collapse in oil prices .
The FTSE 100 saw more than £130bn wiped from the value of its constituent companies within minutes on Monday morning as the latest sell-off began in Europe following sharp falls in Asia overnight .
The nightmare start to the week came as the price of Brent crude fell to near $ 30 a barrel , to record its worst daily plunge in percentage terms since the build-up to the 1991 Gulf @ @ @ @ @ @ @ early 2016 .
It was blamed on Saudi Arabia starting a price war with Russia following their failure last week to agree a deal to curb output and help stabilise prices - hit by a plunge in demand because of the COVID-19 outbreak .
The dive in stock market values over the past fortnight also reflects fears that measures to contain the virus - such as factory shutdowns and restrictions on movement - will cripple global economic growth .
In a risk-off environment such as this , investors usually turn to safe havens @ @ @ @ @ @ @ So it proved on Monday as the two-year gilt yield turned negative for the first time ever early in the day , meaning investors were effectively paying the UK government for the right to hold its debt .
The FTSE 100 fell more than 500 points at the open in London to below 6,000 points - its fastest drop since the Brexit referendum result was declared .
It left the index in so-called bear market territory - more than 20 % down on its peak value - and at a four-year low .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ BP down by 24 % while Royal Dutch Shell saw its value sink by a fifth .
The more domestic-focused FTSE 250 was 6.4 % down , taking its value into a bear market .
It was a similar story in Germany and France but the MIB in Milan - currently subject to a COVID-19 lockdown - was more than 11 % lower .
Trading on the S & P 500 and Dow Jones was suspended minutes after the open on Wall St after values fell by 7 % - the trigger for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ leaving them on track for their worst session since December 2008 .
After trading resumed the Dow Jones was down by 5.4 % and the S & P 500 was down by almost 6 % .
Market analysts see no sign of an end to the bleeding in sight as Europe and the US risk following China and other parts of Asia in implementing virus containment measures .
In the UK , the budget on Wednesday is expected to be used to pledge extra money to the NHS while the Bank of England @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with the Treasury .
NatWest announced £5bn of working capital support for business customers seeing disruption .
The tipping point for Monday 's market mayhem , however , was the threat of a new price war following last week 's bitter meeting of major oil-producing nations involving the Opec cartel , led by Saudi Arabia , and non-member Russia .
Together they had formed , for the past three years , a group known as `` Opec+ '' as old rivalries were cast aside to take on the challenge to their dominance posed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ had been expected to agree a deal that would have seen output cut by more than a million barrels per day combined , in a bid to prop up prices .
Saudi Arabia responded to Russia 's failure to adhere to cuts by threatening during the weekend to raise Brent crude production from next month , to force Moscow into line .
Most recent coronavirus developments in the UK : • Four people have died after catching the virus • Victims were in Berkshire , Milton Keynes , Manchester , and Wolverhampton • @ @ @ @ @ @ @ UK jumps by 46 cases to 319 • Supermarkets have placed restrictions on items including pasta , anti-bacterial wipes and hand soap in a bid to prevent shoppers from stockpiling • Foreign Office advises against all but essential travel to northern Italy • People returning from affected areas in Italy told to self-isolate regardless of whether they have symptoms • The virus-stricken Grand Princess cruise ship with more than 140 Britons on board is due to dock in Oakland , California on Monday Chris Beauchamp , chief market analyst at IG , said @ @ @ @ @ @ @ continue to react to the spread of coronavirus , which has seen Italy put its most prosperous regions on lockdown , but it is the collapse of the oil price and the end of Opec+ ( and of OPEC itself ? )
that is providing a fresh reason to head for the exits .
`` Oil firms , and US shale oil companies too , will face serious pressures with oil now trading around $ 30 for WTI ( West Texas Intermediate ) and $ 33 for Brent .
`` Such pressures will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ broader economy and ramping up expectations of more rate cuts , and potentially monetary easing . ''

Global stock markets have crashed, with trading even briefly suspended in the US, as worries over the coronavirus crisis intensify amid a collapse in oil prices.
The FTSE 100 saw more than £130bn wiped from the value of its constituent companies within minutes on Monday morning as the latest sell-off began in Europe following sharp falls in Asia overnight.
The nightmare start to the week came as the price of Brent crude fell to near $30 a barrel, to record its worst daily plunge in percentage terms since the build-up to the 1991 Gulf War - hitting levels not seen since early 2016.
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It was blamed on Saudi Arabia starting a price war with Russia following their failure last week to agree a deal to curb output and help stabilise prices - hit by a plunge in demand because of the COVID-19 outbreak.
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The dive in stock market values over the past fortnight also reflects fears that measures to contain the virus - such as factory shutdowns and restrictions on movement - will cripple global economic growth.
In a risk-off environment such as this, investors usually turn to safe havens such as gold and government bonds.
So it proved on Monday as the two-year gilt yield turned negative for the first time ever early in the day, meaning investors were effectively paying the UK government for the right to hold its debt.
The FTSE 100 fell more than 500 points at the open in London to below 6,000 points - its fastest drop since the Brexit referendum result was declared.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player 1:42 How virus share price crash compares to 2008
It left the index in so-called bear market territory - more than 20% down on its peak value - and at a four-year low.
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Energy stocks felt the worst pain with BP down by 24% while Royal Dutch Shell saw its value sink by a fifth.
The FTSE 100 closed 7.7% down.
The more domestic-focused FTSE 250 was 6.4% down, taking its value into a bear market.
It was a similar story in Germany and France but the MIB in Milan - currently subject to a COVID-19 lockdown - was more than 11% lower.
Trading on the S&P 500 and Dow Jones was suspended minutes after the open on Wall St after values fell by 7% - the trigger for a 15 minute pause in dealing - leaving them on track for their worst session since December 2008.
After trading resumed the Dow Jones was down by 5.4% and the S&P 500 was down by almost 6%.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player 0:51 How coronavirus has spread
Market analysts see no sign of an end to the bleeding in sight as Europe and the US risk following China and other parts of Asia in implementing virus containment measures.
In the UK, the budget on Wednesday is expected to be used to pledge extra money to the NHS while the Bank of England is examining an action plan in co-ordination with the Treasury.
NatWest announced £5bn of working capital support for business customers seeing disruption.
The tipping point for Monday's market mayhem, however, was the threat of a new price war following last week's bitter meeting of major oil-producing nations involving the Opec cartel, led by Saudi Arabia, and non-member Russia.
Together they had formed, for the past three years, a group known as "Opec+" as old rivalries were cast aside to take on the challenge to their dominance posed by US shale producers.
The nations had been expected to agree a deal that would have seen output cut by more than a million barrels per day combined, in a bid to prop up prices.
Saudi Arabia responded to Russia's failure to adhere to cuts by threatening during the weekend to raise Brent crude production from next month, to force Moscow into line.
Most recent coronavirus developments in the UK:
Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG, said of the crash: "Equity markets continue to react to the spread of coronavirus, which has seen Italy put its most prosperous regions on lockdown, but it is the collapse of the oil price and the end of Opec+ (and of OPEC itself?) that is providing a fresh reason to head for the exits.
"Oil firms, and US shale oil companies too, will face serious pressures with oil now trading around $30 for WTI (West Texas Intermediate) and $33 for Brent.
"Such pressures will include funding problems, spreading through the broader economy and ramping up expectations of more rate cuts, and potentially monetary easing."
Virus Outbreak: Global Emergency - Watch a special Sky News programme on coronavirus at 6pm weekdays
Virus Outbreak: Your questions answered #AskSkyNews at 12.30pm weekdays


news--2020-03-10--Coronavirus: NHS teams up with web giants to 'battle' online misinformation

The NHS has teamed up with web companies to tackle coronavirus misinformation , including dealing with fake Twitter accounts and misleading claims about homeopathic treatments .
Google , Twitter , Instagram and Facebook are working with the health service to help the public get accurate information and avoid myths and misinformation .
Facebook , Google , Twitter and TikTok are all directing UK users to the NHS website if they search for coronavirus .
The NHS said that Twitter had also banned a fake account posing as a hospital , which was spreading misinformation about the numbers affected in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fewer than 50 followers .
The government has also announced a specialist unit to counter disinformation and liaise with social media companies .
Sir Simon Stevens , the health service 's chief executive , said : `` The NHS has already been battling coronavirus fake news , from working to take down false Twitter accounts to speaking out against misleading treatments being promoted by homeopaths online . ''
Health Secretary Matt Hancock said the NHS strategy was crucial in enabling the public to `` access reliable , accurate health information '' as the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ensure the latest trusted NHS guidance sits at the very top of Google search lists , so people can be reassured they are reading official , up-to-date government advice , '' he said .
It follows the Advertising Standards Authority 's action against two adverts for facial masks which it said were `` likely to cause fear '' and made `` misleading '' claims about stopping the virus .
The number of COVID-19 cases in the UK stood at 373 and six deaths as of Tuesday morning .
England 's deputy chief medical @ @ @ @ @ @ @ `` many thousands of people '' contracting the coronavirus .
Speaking to Sky 's Kay Burley @ Breakfast , Dr Jenny Harries said : `` We will have significant numbers in a way which I think the country is not used to ... so large numbers of the population will become infected [ with coronavirus ] but because its a naive population , nobody has got antibodies to this virus currently . ''

The NHS has teamed up with web companies to tackle coronavirus misinformation, including dealing with fake Twitter accounts and misleading claims about homeopathic treatments.
Google, Twitter, Instagram and Facebook are working with the health service to help the public get accurate information and avoid myths and misinformation.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player 4:16 How to combat misinformation?
Facebook, Google, Twitter and TikTok are all directing UK users to the NHS website if they search for coronavirus.
The NHS said that Twitter had also banned a fake account posing as a hospital, which was spreading misinformation about the numbers affected in the UK- although Sky News understands it had fewer than 50 followers.
The government has also announced a specialist unit to counter disinformation and liaise with social media companies.
Sir Simon Stevens, the health service's chief executive, said: "The NHS has already been battling coronavirus fake news, from working to take down false Twitter accounts to speaking out against misleading treatments being promoted by homeopaths online."
Health Secretary Matt Hancock said the NHS strategy was crucial in enabling the public to "access reliable, accurate health information" as the outbreak grows.
"These changes will ensure the latest trusted NHS guidance sits at the very top of Google search lists, so people can be reassured they are reading official, up-to-date government advice," he said.
Image: Google has included a 'help and information' section beneath its news bar
It follows the Advertising Standards Authority's action against two adverts for facial masks which it said were "likely to cause fear" and made "misleading" claims about stopping the virus.
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The number of COVID-19 cases in the UK stood at 373 and six deaths as of Tuesday morning.
England's deputy chief medical officer has said the country should expect "many thousands of people" contracting the coronavirus.
Speaking to Sky's Kay Burley@Breakfast, Dr Jenny Harries said: "We will have significant numbers in a way which I think the country is not used to... so large numbers of the population will become infected [with coronavirus] but because its a naive population, nobody has got antibodies to this virus currently."


news--2020-03-10--Coronavirus: Banks say they will help affected customers - but is it enough?

Coronavirus : Banks say they will help affected customers - but is it enough ?
Coronavirus : Banks say they will help affected customers - but is it enough ?
Banks are not charities but they have no interest in seeing small business fail Banks have been detailing the steps they will take to help small business or household customers affected by the coronavirus outbreak .
NatWest , the UK 's biggest small business lender , said on Monday that it would be putting up £5bn to support to small businesses , in particular , aimed at providing support with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ loan repayment holidays for small business borrowers and the provision of temporary emergency loans with no fees .
It was followed today by Lloyds Banking Group , which said it would be providing £2bn worth of financial support , which would include waiving arrangement fees for new overdrafts or overdraft limit increases and , `` in certain circumstances '' , providing repayment holidays to businesses `` impacted the most '' .
There have also been actions undertaken that have not been formally announced .
Other lenders , including Barclays and Santander , are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ business customers during the last two weeks to ask how their cashflow has been looking as a precursor to making available emergency funding .
The banks have today also started to give details of support for household customers potentially affected by the outbreak , for example , those suffering a drop in income or unexpected expenses or bills to pay .
RBS , which owns NatWest , said borrowers would be able to defer mortgage and loan repayments by up to three months and it would waive early closure charges on fixed savings @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cash advance fees .
Other lenders are expected to follow suit .
The measures , particularly those helping SME customers , are in some ways reminiscent of the forbearance measures introduced by the UK banking industry during the financial crisis of 2008-09 .
And the measures for personal banking customers in particular - although RBS , soon to be rebranded as NatWest Group , is the only one to so far have announced specific details - also echo what has been going on in crisis-hit Italy , where all mortgage holders have been @ @ @ @ @ @ @ few observations to make about these measures .
One is that the banks are being much more proactive than was once the case .
Following the financial crisis , during which the entire industry 's reputation was dragged through the mire , the banks are quicker to get on the front foot and get emergency support to small business and household customers where it is needed .
The response to the coronavirus outbreak follows a similarly rapid response to the recent floods across the country .
It is noticeable that there have been @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sector from flooding victims than there have been of , say , the politicians .
A second observation is that the measures first announced by UK Finance last week and fleshed out by RBS/NatWest and Lloyds during the last 48 hours appear to be part of a wider package of support for small businesses and households .
The Bank of England was quick to praise UK Finance 's initiative and Rishi Sunak , the new chancellor , is expected in his Budget tomorrow to announce measures aimed at helping companies suffering cashflow difficulties @ @ @ @ @ @ @ may well include a tweak to HMRC 's Time To Pay system which , on a case-by-case basis , allows companies to pay their previous year 's tax bill in instalments rather than in one big lump .
The system recently attracted attention when , in January , it was extended to the since-collapsed airline Flybe .
The Bank of England 's monetary policy committee , which is next due to meet on 26 March , is also widely expected to lower interest rates either at its next meeting or earlier .
A @ @ @ @ @ @ @ taken by the banks are also being driven by pragmatism .
Banks are not charities - but the last thing lenders want is for perfectly viable small companies to be put out of business for the sake of a few missed loan repayments .
Allowing customers to skip a few loan repayments may hit the profitability of lenders in the short term - but is the lesser of two evils when the alternative is a customer going bust and the bank getting back only some , or none , of a loan they @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the steps taken in this regard are similar to those in China , where the COVID-19 virus first took hold .
There , in order to prevent a spike in corporate defaults , the authorities actually ordered lenders to offer forbearance until June .
Banking regulators in Europe will have a key role to play in this regard and , particularly , if forbearance becomes more widespread .
Under the current rules , if the duration of a loan is extended , the lender is required to re-categorise that loan as under-performing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to set aside more capital against that loan .
Similarly , any delay of more than 90 days in the repayment of a debt requires a bank to class the borrower as being in default and the loan as non-performing , also requiring the lender to put up more capital .
So there is a role for banking regulators to play .
Giovanni Sabatini , the director general of the Italian Banking Association , called today for regulators to provide temporary relief to banks in this regard - saving them the need , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ raise fresh capital in response to a big wave of defaults .
Other forms of relief to the banking sector may also be provided .
In this country , the Bank of England is being tipped to reverse a recent increase in the so-called `` counter cyclical capital buffer '' - an additional cushion of capital with which banks can absorb losses .
The bank 's financial policy committee raises the buffer when it believes risks are building in the system and raised it from 1 % to 2 % in December .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ raised concerns that another financial crisis is on the way .
Yet there are two key factors that are different - one positive and one negative .
The good news is that , thanks to the actions of governments and regulators like the Bank of England over the last decade , the banks are better capitalised than they were during the crisis .
The bad news is that many companies have taken advantage of ultra-low interest rates to gear up their balance sheets and are more indebted , in lots of cases , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to the US shale oil producers - who are facing a collapse in profits following the instigation of an oil price war by Saudi Arabia .
It is why forbearance for small businesses and households , to help them through the coronavirus outbreak , may only go so far .

Banks are stronger than they were in the 2008 financial crisis but will their measures to help customers and businesses be enough?
Coronavirus: Banks say they will help affected customers - but is it enough?
Banks are not charities but they have no interest in seeing small business fail
Banks have been detailing the steps they will take to help small business or household customers affected by the coronavirus outbreak.
NatWest, the UK's biggest small business lender, said on Monday that it would be putting up £5bn to support to small businesses, in particular, aimed at providing support with working capital. There will also be loan repayment holidays for small business borrowers and the provision of temporary emergency loans with no fees.
It was followed today by Lloyds Banking Group, which said it would be providing £2bn worth of financial support, which would include waiving arrangement fees for new overdrafts or overdraft limit increases and, "in certain circumstances", providing repayment holidays to businesses "impacted the most".
There have also been actions undertaken that have not been formally announced. Other lenders, including Barclays and Santander, are understood to have contacted thousands of small business customers during the last two weeks to ask how their cashflow has been looking as a precursor to making available emergency funding.
The banks have today also started to give details of support for household customers potentially affected by the outbreak, for example, those suffering a drop in income or unexpected expenses or bills to pay.
RBS, which owns NatWest, said borrowers would be able to defer mortgage and loan repayments by up to three months and it would waive early closure charges on fixed savings accounts and offer refunds on credit card cash advance fees. Other lenders are expected to follow suit.
The measures, particularly those helping SME customers, are in some ways reminiscent of the forbearance measures introduced by the UK banking industry during the financial crisis of 2008-09.
And the measures for personal banking customers in particular - although RBS, soon to be rebranded as NatWest Group, is the only one to so far have announced specific details - also echo what has been going on in crisis-hit Italy, where all mortgage holders have been offered a payments holiday.
There are few observations to make about these measures.
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One is that the banks are being much more proactive than was once the case. Following the financial crisis, during which the entire industry's reputation was dragged through the mire, the banks are quicker to get on the front foot and get emergency support to small business and household customers where it is needed. The response to the coronavirus outbreak follows a similarly rapid response to the recent floods across the country. It is noticeable that there have been fewer criticisms of the banking and insurance sector from flooding victims than there have been of, say, the politicians.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player 1:48 Ed Conway explains the extent to which the markets have been affected by coronavirus fears
A second observation is that the measures first announced by UK Finance last week and fleshed out by RBS/NatWest and Lloyds during the last 48 hours appear to be part of a wider package of support for small businesses and households.
The Bank of England was quick to praise UK Finance's initiative and Rishi Sunak, the new chancellor, is expected in his Budget tomorrow to announce measures aimed at helping companies suffering cashflow difficulties due to the coronavirus outbreak.
This may well include a tweak to HMRC's Time To Pay system which, on a case-by-case basis, allows companies to pay their previous year's tax bill in instalments rather than in one big lump. The system recently attracted attention when, in January, it was extended to the since-collapsed airline Flybe. The Bank of England's monetary policy committee, which is next due to meet on 26 March, is also widely expected to lower interest rates either at its next meeting or earlier.
A third observation is that the actions being taken by the banks are also being driven by pragmatism. Banks are not charities - but the last thing lenders want is for perfectly viable small companies to be put out of business for the sake of a few missed loan repayments. Allowing customers to skip a few loan repayments may hit the profitability of lenders in the short term - but is the lesser of two evils when the alternative is a customer going bust and the bank getting back only some, or none, of a loan they have extended to that customer.
Image: The virus has been testing markets around the world
Interestingly, the steps taken in this regard are similar to those in China, where the COVID-19 virus first took hold. There, in order to prevent a spike in corporate defaults, the authorities actually ordered lenders to offer forbearance until June.
Banking regulators in Europe will have a key role to play in this regard and, particularly, if forbearance becomes more widespread.
Under the current rules, if the duration of a loan is extended, the lender is required to re-categorise that loan as under-performing. The lender may then be required to set aside more capital against that loan. Similarly, any delay of more than 90 days in the repayment of a debt requires a bank to class the borrower as being in default and the loan as non-performing, also requiring the lender to put up more capital.
So there is a role for banking regulators to play. Giovanni Sabatini, the director general of the Italian Banking Association, called today for regulators to provide temporary relief to banks in this regard - saving them the need, in extreme circumstances, to have to raise fresh capital in response to a big wave of defaults.
Other forms of relief to the banking sector may also be provided. In this country, the Bank of England is being tipped to reverse a recent increase in the so-called "counter cyclical capital buffer" - an additional cushion of capital with which banks can absorb losses. The bank's financial policy committee raises the buffer when it believes risks are building in the system and raised it from 1% to 2% in December.
Monday's violent sell-off in stock markets raised concerns that another financial crisis is on the way.
Yet there are two key factors that are different - one positive and one negative.
The good news is that, thanks to the actions of governments and regulators like the Bank of England over the last decade, the banks are better capitalised than they were during the crisis. The bad news is that many companies have taken advantage of ultra-low interest rates to gear up their balance sheets and are more indebted, in lots of cases, than in 2007-08. This particularly applies to the US shale oil producers - who are facing a collapse in profits following the instigation of an oil price war by Saudi Arabia.
It is why forbearance for small businesses and households, to help them through the coronavirus outbreak, may only go so far.


news--2020-03-10--Coronavirus: Worldwide peak will come next winter, scientific model predicts

Scientists are warning that even if coronavirus transmissions dip as we head into the spring and summer , such a reduction should n't be mistaken for an end to the outbreak .
Instead a reduction of cases during the summer should be seen as a precious opportunity to prepare for next winter , when a new model suggests the virus could infect 100 times more people .
In a paper currently undergoing peer-review , research scientists from universities in Basel and Stockholm have modelled the effects of seasonal variation on COVID-19 - the prevalent strain of coronavirus - transmission rates @ @ @ @ @ @ @ experiencing a `` small peak in early 2020 in temperate regions of the Northern Hemisphere '' which will be followed by `` a larger peak in winter 2020-21 '' .
Based on other coronaviruses , the researchers believe the transmission rate will indeed drop as we head into spring and summer but then rise again , infecting as many as a 100 million people in total .
Dr Emma Hodcroft , one of the paper 's co-authors , told Sky News it was `` hard to have exact numbers '' but said the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ '' .
She added that she `` would n't focus on absolute numbers '' but stressed the `` general message that there could be substantially more cases if there is a seasonal affect '' .
The figure came with `` a very important caveat '' , she explained : `` These predictions are ones we 've made based on assumptions about how seasonality affects transmission , based on how it is known to affect other coronaviruses . ''
Crucially , it is not yet clear how the new coronavirus will be affected by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a chance that we could be experiencing the peak of the virus transmission now , although this is not what is seen in other coronaviruses .
Dr Richard Neher is the lead author of the paper , currently titled Potential Impact of Seasonal Forcing on a SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic .
`` The main takeaway is , if seasonality does decrease in the summer time , then we should be cautious still because we could still see a bigger peak in winter , '' Dr Hodcroft said .
`` If we are n't aware of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ off guard when winter comes again . ''
After this peak the model suggests that the virus could become a regular , seasonal occurrence , similar to the flu .
Six people have now died in the UK after testing positive for the virus , NHS England confirmed on Tuesday .
Globally , there are more than 116,000 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and more than 4,000 deaths .

Scientists are warning that even if coronavirus transmissions dip as we head into the spring and summer, such a reduction shouldn't be mistaken for an end to the outbreak.
Instead a reduction of cases during the summer should be seen as a precious opportunity to prepare for next winter, when a new model suggests the virus could infect 100 times more people.
In a paper currently undergoing peer-review, research scientists from universities in Basel and Stockholm have modelled the effects of seasonal variation on COVID-19 - the prevalent strain of coronavirus - transmission rates.
Their model suggests we are currently experiencing a "small peak in early 2020 in temperate regions of the Northern Hemisphere" which will be followed by "a larger peak in winter 2020-21".
Based on other coronaviruses, the researchers believe the transmission rate will indeed drop as we head into spring and summer but then rise again, infecting as many as a 100 million people in total.
Dr Emma Hodcroft, one of the paper's co-authors, told Sky News it was "hard to have exact numbers" but said the model was "not an unreasonable scenario".
She added that she "wouldn't focus on absolute numbers" but stressed the "general message that there could be substantially more cases if there is a seasonal affect".
The figure came with "a very important caveat", she explained: "These predictions are ones we've made based on assumptions about how seasonality affects transmission, based on how it is known to affect other coronaviruses."
Crucially, it is not yet clear how the new coronavirus will be affected by the change in season. There is a chance that we could be experiencing the peak of the virus transmission now, although this is not what is seen in other coronaviruses.
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Dr Richard Neher is the lead author of the paper, currently titled Potential Impact of Seasonal Forcing on a SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic.
"The main takeaway is, if seasonality does decrease in the summer time, then we should be cautious still because we could still see a bigger peak in winter," Dr Hodcroft said.
"If we aren't aware of this possibility then we could be caught off guard when winter comes again."
After this peak the model suggests that the virus could become a regular, seasonal occurrence, similar to the flu.
Six people have now died in the UK after testing positive for the virus, NHS England confirmed on Tuesday.
Globally, there are more than 116,000 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and more than 4,000 deaths.