news--2020-04-30--Coronavirus: Shell has just made an unprecedented move that'll hit savers hard

Dividends by Shell and BP account for almost a quarter of FTSE 100 company payouts It is a day few in the oil and gas industry - or the stock market - thought they would ever see .
Royal Dutch Shell has cut its dividend for the first time since the Second World War .
That proud record of increasing , or at the very least maintaining , the payout year after year was kept up all the way through the depressed oil market of the 1980s and early 1990s .
During that period , most of Shell 's competitors @ @ @ @ @ @ @ most notably BP which , in 1992 , was forced to do so for the first time since the First World War .
That level of reliability is why generations of trainee stockbrokers were brought up on the old market adage of `` never sell Shell '' .
Yet another old market adage has it that , if the shares of a company are trading with a yield in double figures ( the yield is the dividend divided by the share price and multiplied by 100 ) , the dividend is unsustainable .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ on a yield of 14 % - raising doubts about the sustainability of the dividend at current levels .
The COVID-19 crisis has forced a rebasing , in the jargon , of the payout in a way that previous crises could not .
Shell 's first-quarter dividend payment will be just 16 cents ( 12.6p ) - Shell , like BP , declares its earnings and makes its payouts in US dollars - down from 47 cents ( 37p ) for the first three months of last year .
Explaining the reduction , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the societal impact of COVID-19 , along with the resulting deterioration in the macroeconomic outlook and the outlook for oil and gas prices , was unprecedented .
It said it was unclear how long these conditions would persist but that it was expecting the weaker conditions to extend into next year .
Chad Holliday , Shell 's chairman , added : `` Shareholder returns are a fundamental part of Shell 's financial framework .
`` However , given the risk of a prolonged period of economic uncertainty , weaker commodity prices , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the board believes that maintaining the current level of shareholder distributions is not prudent .
`` As conditions allow , the board will continue to evaluate our capital allocation priorities between ongoing investment in our business , maintaining a strong balance sheet and increasing returns to shareholders which remains our ambition . ''
The impact of this move will be profound .
With an annual payout that last year totalled $ 15bn ( £12bn ) , Shell was the biggest payer of dividends in the corporate world .
Dividends by Shell and BP @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this week , account for 24 % of all dividends paid by FTSE 100 companies .
Accordingly , they are a staple of most pension schemes , relied on by of savers around the world to pay them an income in retirement .
It will be a huge blow to such savers and particularly coming after the banks - also among the biggest dividend payers in the market - announced they would not be paying dividends in respect of 2019 .
As Kit Atkinson of the financial administration services firm Link Group , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bitter pill to investors .
`` A two-thirds cut in its dividend is not surgical precision , it 's amputation , and is more evidence of the appalling damage the pandemic is doing to the world economy .
`` If the payout remains this low for the rest of the year , it will cost Shell 's shareholders £5.6bn in lost income in 2020 and even more next year . ''
The timing of the cut may have taken some in the market by surprise .
Shell , which had indicated strongly that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ had raised billions of dollars on the bond markets in recent weeks .
This increased level of financial flexibility had reassured analysts and fund managers that the dividend was secure for at least the next six months .
So the timing of this cut is a firm indication that Shell expects the weakness in the global economy caused by COVID-19 lockdowns , and the accompanying weakness in oil and gas prices , to persist well into 2021 .
One glance at Shell 's first-quarter results , published this morning , highlights the unsustainability @ @ @ @ @ @ @ level .
Earnings on a current cost of supplies basis , Shell 's preferred measurement , fell by 46 % to $ 2.957bn ( £2.33bn ) .
And this in a quarter when , for two out of the three months , trading conditions were relatively normal .
As a result , although Shell shares fell , market reaction has been rather less hostile than would have been the case in normal times .
Analysts pointed out that , on the back of its recent announcement to seek to become net zero carbon @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for the company to conserve capital .
Christyan Malek , oil and gas analyst at broker JP Morgan Cazenove , described the cut as a `` necessary evil '' .
He said : `` We believe the decision to cut the dividend is fiscally prudent , with the positive corollary that it affords Shell the ability to allocate incremental capital to high-value barrels as demand recovers and accelerate its energy transition agenda to net zero carbon by 2050 . ''
Biraj Borkhataria , co-head of European energy research at RBC Capital Markets , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Shell to pivot more easily through the energy transition , and not to be tied to a $ 15bn dividend to service each year . ''
Cutting the dividend is not the only move being taken by Shell to conserve capital .
It had already suspended its share buyback programme and has announced plans to cut capital spending by $ 5bn ( £3.9bn ) this year - while its operating costs will also be cut by some $ 4bn ( £3.2bn ) .
But the dividend cut is the biggest and most eye-catching @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was in any doubt about how seriously the corporate world is taking this pandemic and its lingering after-effects , they will not be now .

Generations of stockbrokers were taught "never sell Shell" - but it appears its dividend payouts have now become unsustainable.
Dividends by Shell and BP account for almost a quarter of FTSE 100 company payouts
It is a day few in the oil and gas industry - or the stock market - thought they would ever see.
Royal Dutch Shell has cut its dividend for the first time since the Second World War.
That proud record of increasing, or at the very least maintaining, the payout year after year was kept up all the way through the depressed oil market of the 1980s and early 1990s.
Image: Shares in Royal Dutch Shell are relied on by savers around the world
During that period, most of Shell's competitors were forced to cut their payout - most notably BP which, in 1992, was forced to do so for the first time since the First World War.
That level of reliability is why generations of trainee stockbrokers were brought up on the old market adage of "never sell Shell".
Yet another old market adage has it that, if the shares of a company are trading with a yield in double figures (the yield is the dividend divided by the share price and multiplied by 100), the dividend is unsustainable.
Shares of Shell were trading in March on a yield of 14% - raising doubts about the sustainability of the dividend at current levels.
The cut was duly delivered today.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player 2:22 How will oil slump hit the economy?
The COVID-19 crisis has forced a rebasing, in the jargon, of the payout in a way that previous crises could not.
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Shell's first-quarter dividend payment will be just 16 cents (12.6p) - Shell, like BP, declares its earnings and makes its payouts in US dollars - down from 47 cents (37p) for the first three months of last year.
Explaining the reduction, the company said the pace and scale of the societal impact of COVID-19, along with the resulting deterioration in the macroeconomic outlook and the outlook for oil and gas prices, was unprecedented.
It said it was unclear how long these conditions would persist but that it was expecting the weaker conditions to extend into next year.
Chad Holliday, Shell's chairman, added: "Shareholder returns are a fundamental part of Shell's financial framework.
"However, given the risk of a prolonged period of economic uncertainty, weaker commodity prices, higher volatility and uncertain demand outlook, the board believes that maintaining the current level of shareholder distributions is not prudent.
"As conditions allow, the board will continue to evaluate our capital allocation priorities between ongoing investment in our business, maintaining a strong balance sheet and increasing returns to shareholders which remains our ambition."
The impact of this move will be profound.
With an annual payout that last year totalled $15bn (£12bn), Shell was the biggest payer of dividends in the corporate world.
Image: The cut suggests that Shell suggests the weakness in the global economy to persist into 2021
Dividends by Shell and BP, which actually increased its payout earlier this week, account for 24% of all dividends paid by FTSE 100 companies.
Accordingly, they are a staple of most pension schemes, relied on by of savers around the world to pay them an income in retirement.
It will be a huge blow to such savers and particularly coming after the banks - also among the biggest dividend payers in the market - announced they would not be paying dividends in respect of 2019.
As Kit Atkinson of the financial administration services firm Link Group, noted: "Shell has administered a bitter pill to investors.
"A two-thirds cut in its dividend is not surgical precision, it's amputation, and is more evidence of the appalling damage the pandemic is doing to the world economy.
"If the payout remains this low for the rest of the year, it will cost Shell's shareholders £5.6bn in lost income in 2020 and even more next year."
The timing of the cut may have taken some in the market by surprise.
Shell, which had indicated strongly that the dividend would remain in place, had raised billions of dollars on the bond markets in recent weeks.
This increased level of financial flexibility had reassured analysts and fund managers that the dividend was secure for at least the next six months.
So the timing of this cut is a firm indication that Shell expects the weakness in the global economy caused by COVID-19 lockdowns, and the accompanying weakness in oil and gas prices, to persist well into 2021.
One glance at Shell's first-quarter results, published this morning, highlights the unsustainability of maintaining the dividend at the previous level.
Earnings on a current cost of supplies basis, Shell's preferred measurement, fell by 46% to $2.957bn (£2.33bn).
And this in a quarter when, for two out of the three months, trading conditions were relatively normal.
Image: Royal Dutch Shell is cutting billions in operating costs
As a result, although Shell shares fell, market reaction has been rather less hostile than would have been the case in normal times.
Analysts pointed out that, on the back of its recent announcement to seek to become net zero carbon by 2050, there was a need for the company to conserve capital.
Christyan Malek, oil and gas analyst at broker JP Morgan Cazenove, described the cut as a "necessary evil".
He said: "We believe the decision to cut the dividend is fiscally prudent, with the positive corollary that it affords Shell the ability to allocate incremental capital to high-value barrels as demand recovers and accelerate its energy transition agenda to net zero carbon by 2050."
Biraj Borkhataria, co-head of European energy research at RBC Capital Markets, added: "The move will allow Shell to pivot more easily through the energy transition, and not to be tied to a $15bn dividend to service each year."
Cutting the dividend is not the only move being taken by Shell to conserve capital.
It had already suspended its share buyback programme and has announced plans to cut capital spending by $5bn (£3.9bn) this year - while its operating costs will also be cut by some $4bn (£3.2bn).
But the dividend cut is the biggest and most eye-catching measure of them all.
If anyone was in any doubt about how seriously the corporate world is taking this pandemic and its lingering after-effects, they will not be now.


news--2020-04-30--Coronavirus: Cleaner UK air during lockdown has 'saved 1,700 lives', says study

More than 1,700 premature deaths have been avoided in the UK in the past month because of better air quality , according to a pan-European study .
Coronavirus lockdowns are said to have pushed down levels of nitrogen dioxide ( NO2 ) produced by vehicles and industry by nearly 40 % over the past 30 days .
The UK has avoided an estimated 1,752 deaths related to air pollution , second only to Germany at 2,083 .
Researchers say 11,000 deaths have been avoided across Europe .
The figures come from a report by the Finland-based Centre for Research on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
It said UK nitrogen dioxide levels had fallen 36 % , with a 9 % fall in particulate matter pollution ( an airborne mix of materials such as dust , dirt and smoke ) .
Across Europe , the fall was 37 % and 12 % respectively .
Nitrogen dioxide is a gas emitted when fossil fuels are burnt at high temperatures , most commonly at power plants and in vehicles .
The study said coal power generation in Europe was down 37 % and oil consumption by about a third .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ how pollution has dramatically decreased in European cities and parts of China compared with before the COVID-19 crisis .
The CREA study also said 6,000 new cases of child asthma had been avoided , with 1,900 fewer A & E visits due to asthma , 1.3 million fewer days off work and 600 fewer premature births .
The countries with the biggest percentage falls in NO2 were Portugal ( 58 % ) , Spain ( 51 % ) and Croatia ( 47 % ) .
For particulate matter , it was Portugal ( @ @ @ @ @ @ @ % ) and Norway ( 30 % ) .
Authors of the research , Lauri Myllyvirta and Hubert Thieriot , said they used detailed statistical modelling to separate the effects of weather conditions ( which can also affect air pollution ) and changes in emissions .
Their research analysed hourly air quality data from more than 3,000 monitoring stations .
In the UK , there have been more than 26,000 deaths linked to coronavirus and upwards of 227,000 worldwide .
The researchers said its `` side effects should not be celebrated '' but @ @ @ @ @ @ @ improve .
They said it was a `` striking demonstration of the benefit to public health and quality of life if European decision-makers prioritise clean air , clean energy and clean transport in their plans to recover from the crisis '' .

More than 1,700 premature deaths have been avoided in the UK in the past month because of better air quality, according to a pan-European study.
Coronavirus lockdowns are said to have pushed down levels of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) produced by vehicles and industry by nearly 40% over the past 30 days.
The UK has avoided an estimated 1,752 deaths related to air pollution, second only to Germany at 2,083.
Image: A photo showing two very different views of Milan - but the weather can also affect pollution levels
Researchers say 11,000 deaths have been avoided across Europe.
The figures come from a report by the Finland-based Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA).
It said UK nitrogen dioxide levels had fallen 36%, with a 9% fall in particulate matter pollution (an airborne mix of materials such as dust, dirt and smoke).
Across Europe, the fall was 37% and 12% respectively.
Nitrogen dioxide is a gas emitted when fossil fuels are burnt at high temperatures, most commonly at power plants and in vehicles.
Image: The average nitrogen dioxide concentrations from air pollution across France and Spain in March (L) and March 14 to 25, 2020
The study said coal power generation in Europe was down 37% and oil consumption by about a third.
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Recent space agency pictures have also shown how pollution has dramatically decreased in European cities and parts of China compared with before the COVID-19 crisis.
The CREA study also said 6,000 new cases of child asthma had been avoided, with 1,900 fewer A&E visits due to asthma, 1.3 million fewer days off work and 600 fewer premature births.
The countries with the biggest percentage falls in NO2 were Portugal (58%), Spain (51%) and Croatia (47%).
For particulate matter, it was Portugal (55%), Greece (32%) and Norway (30%).
Authors of the research, Lauri Myllyvirta and Hubert Thieriot, said they used detailed statistical modelling to separate the effects of weather conditions (which can also affect air pollution) and changes in emissions.
Their research analysed hourly air quality data from more than 3,000 monitoring stations.
Image: Satellite images show how nitrogen dioxide levels fell in China. Pic: NASA
In the UK, there have been more than 26,000 deaths linked to coronavirus and upwards of 227,000 worldwide.
The researchers said its "side effects should not be celebrated" but that it showed how quickly pollution can improve.
They said it was a "striking demonstration of the benefit to public health and quality of life if European decision-makers prioritise clean air, clean energy and clean transport in their plans to recover from the crisis".


news--2020-04-30--Coronavirus: Why 'R' is possibly most crucial scientific figure in COVID-19 crisis

Good news .
The R is down .
As chief scientific officer Sir Patrick Vallance put it at today 's press conference : `` The R is below one .
We think it 's between 0.6 and 0.9 , across the nation .
`` Maybe a little lower in some places , maybe a little higher in others , but it 's below one across the country . ''
Translation ?
The lockdown has worked .
We have , through collective social distancing , slowed the spread of the virus .
It is no longer spreading with the terrifying speed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , jumping from 200 to 26,000 in barely a month .
This is the meaning of R , perhaps the most crucial scientific figure in the entire coronavirus crisis .
It is , at its core , a measure of speed .
R , or `` R zero '' as it is often called , is shorthand for reproductive rate .
It is a measure of how many people , on average , will be infected for every one person who has the disease .
If the R is one , then one @ @ @ @ @ @ @ person .
If it is three - which the prime minister said seemed to be the `` natural rate '' for coronavirus - then one person will infect three .
The reason this seemingly small number is so important is because of the way it grows over time .
If 100 people have the virus and the reproduction rate is three , then 300 people will be infected .
In turn , they will infect 900 people , who will infect 2,700 people .
Before too long , the numbers start to get @ @ @ @ @ @ @ become what mathematicians call exponential .
This is what happened in the first phase of this crisis .
It is exponential growth which caused the curve of cases and deaths to turn upwards with such speed .
This will happen again , as chief medical officer Professor Chris Whitty told the briefing today , any time the R goes above one - even if it is 1.1 or 1.2. : : Listen to the All Out Politics podcast on Apple Podcasts , Google Podcasts , Spotify , Spreaker '' As soon as R @ @ @ @ @ @ @ growth , '' he said .
`` Sooner or later , the NHS will go back to the risk of being overwhelmed and the number of cases will tick up . ''
That 's why , as Boris Johnson said : `` Keeping the R down is going to be absolutely vital to our recovery . ''
If we can keep the R below one , then the growth of the pandemic will slow - indeed , it will slow exponentially .
If it ticks even slightly above one , then the pandemic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will almost inevitably require further lockdown measures .
Mr Johnson suggested as much when he said that `` the government will be monitoring R very carefully .
It will be a key factor in how social distancing measures will be used in the future '' .
To me , this seems as if R will be the measure for both present and future lockdowns , just as it is for epidemiologists .
There have been mutters of discontent about the government 's insistence that it is `` following the science '' .
At @ @ @ @ @ @ @ R will do just that .
But there is , if not a catch , then definitely some uncertainty , which could be seen in the discussion at the briefing .
He said he `` thinks '' it 's between 0.6 and 0.9 , across the nation .
That 's a fairly broad range .
Measuring R effectively is hard .
There are lots of factors that go into it , it may vary from place to place , and to estimate it accurately requires a large number of tests .
It 's @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in real time , because there is a delay between the moment people are infected and cases showing up in the data .
As the infection goes on and the number of tests rises , R will become easier to track , but , especially at the beginning , being precise about it will not be straightforward .
Remember how , in the days before the lockdown , there was an argument about modelling , with many demands to `` show us the data '' ?
With so much depending on a fuzzy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ advisors may find themselves back in the same place - not because they are hiding anything , but because they may struggle to provide the absolute clarity people so desperately want .

Good news. The R is down.
As chief scientific officer Sir Patrick Vallance put it at today's press conference: "The R is below one. We think it's between 0.6 and 0.9, across the nation.
"Maybe a little lower in some places, maybe a little higher in others, but it's below one across the country."
Image: 'R' will be easier to track as testing increases
Translation? The lockdown has worked. We have, through collective social distancing, slowed the spread of the virus.
It is no longer spreading with the terrifying speed which caused deaths to rise so sharply, jumping from 200 to 26,000 in barely a month.
This is the meaning of R, perhaps the most crucial scientific figure in the entire coronavirus crisis.
It is, at its core, a measure of speed.
R, or "R zero" as it is often called, is shorthand for reproductive rate.
It is a measure of how many people, on average, will be infected for every one person who has the disease.
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Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player 1:53 The video was shown during the daily Downing Street briefing on coronavirus.
If the R is one, then one person with the disease infects one other person. If it is three - which the prime minister said seemed to be the "natural rate" for coronavirus - then one person will infect three.
The reason this seemingly small number is so important is because of the way it grows over time.
If 100 people have the virus and the reproduction rate is three, then 300 people will be infected. In turn, they will infect 900 people, who will infect 2,700 people.
Before too long, the numbers start to get very large, very quickly. They become what mathematicians call exponential.
This is what happened in the first phase of this crisis. It is exponential growth which caused the curve of cases and deaths to turn upwards with such speed.
This will happen again, as chief medical officer Professor Chris Whitty told the briefing today, any time the R goes above one - even if it is 1.1 or 1.2.
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"As soon as R goes above one, you restart exponential growth," he said.
"Sooner or later, the NHS will go back to the risk of being overwhelmed and the number of cases will tick up."
That's why, as Boris Johnson said: "Keeping the R down is going to be absolutely vital to our recovery."
If we can keep the R below one, then the growth of the pandemic will slow - indeed, it will slow exponentially.
If it ticks even slightly above one, then the pandemic will start to grow again, which will almost inevitably require further lockdown measures.
Mr Johnson suggested as much when he said that "the government will be monitoring R very carefully. It will be a key factor in how social distancing measures will be used in the future".
To me, this seems as if R will be the measure for both present and future lockdowns, just as it is for epidemiologists.
There have been mutters of discontent about the government's insistence that it is "following the science". At least in principle, basing decisions on R will do just that.
But there is, if not a catch, then definitely some uncertainty, which could be seen in the discussion at the briefing.
When Sir Patrick Vallance named R, he didn't give a precise figure.
He said he "thinks" it's between 0.6 and 0.9, across the nation. That's a fairly broad range.
Measuring R effectively is hard. There are lots of factors that go into it, it may vary from place to place, and to estimate it accurately requires a large number of tests.
It's also hard to track the reproduction number in real time, because there is a delay between the moment people are infected and cases showing up in the data.
As the infection goes on and the number of tests rises, R will become easier to track, but, especially at the beginning, being precise about it will not be straightforward.
Remember how, in the days before the lockdown, there was an argument about modelling, with many demands to "show us the data"?
With so much depending on a fuzzy number, Boris Johnson and his scientific advisors may find themselves back in the same place - not because they are hiding anything, but because they may struggle to provide the absolute clarity people so desperately want.


news--2020-04-30--Coronavirus: 'Concern' as data shows number of journeys in Scotland is on the rise

It is a `` source of concern '' that the number of journeys in Scotland is on the rise , First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has said .
Speaking at the Scottish government 's daily coronavirus news conference , Ms Sturgeon said that while there had been `` very real '' progress in the fight against the virus , it is `` too fragile for us to let up '' .
The first minister warned that next week may be too early to lift any of the lockdown restrictions designed to halt the spread of COVID-19 .
A further 60 people @ @ @ @ @ @ @ coronavirus in Scotland , meaning the total now stands at 1,475 .
Ms Sturgeon said the public had been `` superb '' at sticking to the lockdown restrictions , but there was evidence of people being `` a little more active '' than they had been at the start .
It comes after figures showed traffic levels on UK roads on Monday were at the highest level since the restrictions were introduced last month .
The first minister said that while the increases in people on the roads and using public transport were @ @ @ @ @ @ @ were still a `` source of concern '' .
She added : `` The point I am making today is not an easy one , but it is an essential one .
`` The progress we have made is real and it is significant , but it is still very fragile .
`` The margins we have for ensuring the virus does n't take off again are really , really tight .
That means we must be very cautious at this stage . ''
Ms Sturgeon said the number of people using concessionary @ @ @ @ @ @ @ last week .
And she added that while the amount of traffic on the roads had been less than a third of pre-lockdown levels , it had increased this week by about 5 % .
`` In some of our town and city roads traffic has been 10 % higher than in the week before , '' the first minister said .
Ms Sturgeon said such journeys added up and cautioned against people `` easing off '' .
: : Listen to the Daily podcast on Apple Podcasts , Google Podcasts , Spotify @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is only you making an extra journey , and it is only one trip .
And you might feel you deserve it after weeks of restraint .
Believe me , I really understand all of that , '' she said .
`` But all of it adds up .
And if everybody starts easing off , the virus will quickly take off again and it will have devastating consequences for all of us . ''
The first minister continued : `` I know people want to travel a bit more , I know @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , I absolutely know that every grandparent watching this is desperate to see and to hug their grandchildren .
`` But , as things stand , our progress against the virus , albeit very real progress , is too fragile for us to let up . ''
Addressing the UK-wide picture , Public Health England medical director Dr Yvonne Doyle has described the rise in traffic levels as `` slightly worrying '' .
The latest data shows that the number of vehicles was 56 % lower than in early February , but up @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Monday .
Train and bus use remains flat , at more than 95 % below the first week of February .
`` There has been an uptick in motor vehicles , and the message here really is that we are still passing through this peak , '' Dr Doyle said .
`` This use of motor vehicles is the highest working day use since 23 March .
`` We really have to be vigilant .
Most people are making huge efforts to stay at home and save lives .
`` This is slightly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ home , protect the NHS , save lives .
Go out for the necessities . ''

It is a "source of concern" that the number of journeys in Scotland is on the rise, First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has said.
Speaking at the Scottish government's daily coronavirus news conference, Ms Sturgeon said that while there had been "very real" progress in the fight against the virus, it is "too fragile for us to let up".
The first minister warned that next week may be too early to lift any of the lockdown restrictions designed to halt the spread of COVID-19.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player 9:38 Sturgeon: 'It's too early to ease lockdown'
A further 60 people have died after testing positive for the coronavirus in Scotland, meaning the total now stands at 1,475.
Ms Sturgeon said the public had been "superb" at sticking to the lockdown restrictions, but there was evidence of people being "a little more active" than they had been at the start.
It comes after figures showed traffic levels on UK roads on Monday were at the highest level since the restrictions were introduced last month.
The first minister said that while the increases in people on the roads and using public transport were from a low starting point, they were still a "source of concern".
She added: "The point I am making today is not an easy one, but it is an essential one.
"The progress we have made is real and it is significant, but it is still very fragile.
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"The margins we have for ensuring the virus doesn't take off again are really, really tight. That means we must be very cautious at this stage."
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player 0:32 Scotland: Face coverings recommended in 'enclosed spaces'
Ms Sturgeon said the number of people using concessionary transport went up by almost a sixth last week.
And she added that while the amount of traffic on the roads had been less than a third of pre-lockdown levels, it had increased this week by about 5%.
"In some of our town and city roads traffic has been 10% higher than in the week before," the first minister said.
Ms Sturgeon said such journeys added up and cautioned against people "easing off".
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"You might think it is only you making an extra journey, and it is only one trip. And you might feel you deserve it after weeks of restraint. Believe me, I really understand all of that," she said.
"But all of it adds up. And if everybody starts easing off, the virus will quickly take off again and it will have devastating consequences for all of us."
The first minister continued: "I know people want to travel a bit more, I know children want to spend more time outside, I absolutely know that every grandparent watching this is desperate to see and to hug their grandchildren.
"But, as things stand, our progress against the virus, albeit very real progress, is too fragile for us to let up."
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player 0:36 'Good idea of vaccine efficacy by June or July'
Addressing the UK-wide picture, Public Health England medical director Dr Yvonne Doyle has described the rise in traffic levels as "slightly worrying".
The latest data shows that the number of vehicles was 56% lower than in early February, but up three percentage points compared with the previous Monday.
Train and bus use remains flat, at more than 95% below the first week of February.
"There has been an uptick in motor vehicles, and the message here really is that we are still passing through this peak," Dr Doyle said.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player 0:40 'Probable we won't hit 100k tests tomorrow'
"This use of motor vehicles is the highest working day use since 23 March.
"We really have to be vigilant. Most people are making huge efforts to stay at home and save lives.
"This is slightly worrying, so please do stay at home, protect the NHS, save lives. Go out for the necessities."


news--2020-04-30--Coronavirus: Low-cost airline says its passengers will need to wear masks on board

Low-cost airline Wizz Air has confirmed its passengers will be required to wear masks on board its flights from now on .
The Hungarian operator joins Germany 's Lufthansa in introducing the policy , which is designed to limit the spread of COVID-19 .
Passengers who do not bring a mask with them to the airport are going to be offered one for free .
Wizz Air recently announced plans to resume some of its routes from London Luton on 1 May , becoming one of the first European airlines to reintroduce services .
The company had initially said that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ wear masks on its flights - as well as gloves - so a catering service could still be provided .
A previous statement had added : `` To help passengers and crew travel safely and worry-free , Wizz Air has introduced several additional security measures to support physical distancing during boarding and enhanced cleanliness on board .
`` As part of the measures to protect the health of customers and crew , customers should check-in and make any purchases online , such as paying for additional bags , to reduce non-essential interaction at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ continue its stringent daily cleaning schedule , with the entire aircraft being disinfected overnight , following official guidelines . ''
The guidance on face masks has evolved over the course of the pandemic .
The World Health Organisation ( WHO ) had initially said there was no evidence that wearing them would help stop the spread of COVID-19 .
It later reversed its guidance , and said those infected with coronavirus should wear a mask and self-isolate .
With global economies itching to get back into action , the use of masks could @ @ @ @ @ @ @ : Listen to the Daily podcast on Apple Podcasts , Google Podcasts , Spotify , Spreaker In New York state , Governor Andrew Cuomo said that everyone should wear a mask when they leave the house , with other US states following suit .
Mayor of London Sadiq Khan has urged the government to implement the same system on the capital 's transport network , but ministers have said the science shows they would be of limited use in the UK .

Low-cost airline Wizz Air has confirmed its passengers will be required to wear masks on board its flights from now on.
The Hungarian operator joins Germany's Lufthansa in introducing the policy, which is designed to limit the spread of COVID-19.
Passengers who do not bring a mask with them to the airport are going to be offered one for free.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player 0:34 March: Flights virtually empty across the world
Wizz Air recently announced plans to resume some of its routes from London Luton on 1 May, becoming one of the first European airlines to reintroduce services.
The company had initially said that only cabin crew would be required to wear masks on its flights - as well as gloves - so a catering service could still be provided.
A previous statement had added: "To help passengers and crew travel safely and worry-free, Wizz Air has introduced several additional security measures to support physical distancing during boarding and enhanced cleanliness on board.
"As part of the measures to protect the health of customers and crew, customers should check-in and make any purchases online, such as paying for additional bags, to reduce non-essential interaction at the airport.
"Wizz Air will continue its stringent daily cleaning schedule, with the entire aircraft being disinfected overnight, following official guidelines."
The guidance on face masks has evolved over the course of the pandemic.
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The World Health Organisation (WHO) had initially said there was no evidence that wearing them would help stop the spread of COVID-19. It later reversed its guidance, and said those infected with coronavirus should wear a mask and self-isolate.
With global economies itching to get back into action, the use of masks could become commonplace on transport networks.
:: Listen to the Daily podcast on Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts, Spotify, Spreaker
In New York state, Governor Andrew Cuomo said that everyone should wear a mask when they leave the house, with other US states following suit.
Mayor of London Sadiq Khan has urged the government to implement the same system on the capital's transport network, but ministers have said the science shows they would be of limited use in the UK.


news--2020-04-30--Coronavirus: Worst daily loss for FTSE 100 in a month as economic damage hits shares

The FTSE 100 has endured its worst one-day loss for a month as the effects of lockdowns on the global economy become clearer and weigh on investor sentiment .
A rally of recent weeks , that saw the blue chip index recapture some of the ground lost during the coronavirus-linked meltdown that began in February , came to a crashing halt on Thursday amid a slew of negative news - much of it worse than the market had expected .
A key driver for the FTSE was the first cut in the dividend from Royal Dutch Shell since World War @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a collapse in oil costs - a consequence of a lack of demand The stock , a staple of pension funds , fell almost 11 % while shares in rival BP were also hit - falling 6 % .
Energy stocks accounted for almost a quarter of the FTSE 's decline .
It closed the day 3.5 % down at 5,901 .
It dented a recovery of 4 % over the month as a whole , which was the best performance since April 2018 though it remains 21 % down in the year @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the All Out Politics podcast on Apple Podcasts , Google Podcasts , Spotify , Spreaker Markets in France and Germany were more than 2 % lower as wider sentiment was spooked by worse than expected figures showing a 3.8 % contraction in eurozone economic growth during the first quarter of the year - figures covering only two weeks of lockdown conditions .
There was also , analysts said , a sense of disappointment after the European Central Bank ( ECB ) failed to expand the scope of its asset purchase programme while keeping @ @ @ @ @ @ @ That was despite its new president , Christine Lagarde , warning that an `` unprecedented '' slump was looming .
A day after it was revealed that the US economy shrank by 4.8 % between January and March , new figures showed total US claims for unemployment benefits had risen above 30 million .
That was a rise of 3.8 million on the previous week .
Some risk-off selling in New York failed to prevent the S & P 500 recording its best month for 33 years .
In London , market analysts @ @ @ @ @ @ @ FTSE lower more widely on Thursday .
They cited companies including Lloyds Banking Group , which lost 7 % on Wednesday as first quarter profits were wiped out by provisions for bad loans .
But AJ Bell investment director , Russ Mould , said Shell 's dividend cut sent a wider signal .
He wrote in a note to clients : `` Shell 's decision is devastating to investors across the country as so many people own its shares directly or through their pension .
`` Shell 's actions could also lead to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ near future . ''

The FTSE 100 has endured its worst one-day loss for a month as the effects of lockdowns on the global economy become clearer and weigh on investor sentiment.
A rally of recent weeks, that saw the blue chip index recapture some of the ground lost during the coronavirus-linked meltdown that began in February, came to a crashing halt on Thursday amid a slew of negative news - much of it worse than the market had expected.
A key driver for the FTSE was the first cut in the dividend from Royal Dutch Shell since World War Two as it gets to grips with a collapse in oil costs - a consequence of a lack of demand
Image: Shell has been toppled as the largest company by market value on the FTSE 100 by AstraZeneca
The stock, a staple of pension funds, fell almost 11% while shares in rival BP were also hit - falling 6%.
Energy stocks accounted for almost a quarter of the FTSE's decline. It closed the day 3.5% down at 5,901.
It dented a recovery of 4% over the month as a whole, which was the best performance since April 2018 though it remains 21% down in the year to date.
Podcast Podcast , which may be using cookies and other technologies. To show you this content, we need your permission to use cookies. You can use the buttons below to amend your preferences to enable Podcast cookies or to allow those cookies just once. You can change your settings at any time via the This content is provided by, which may be using cookies and other technologies. To show you this content, we need your permission to use cookies. You can use the buttons below to amend your preferences to enablecookies or to allow those cookies just once. You can change your settings at any time via the Privacy Options Unfortunately we have been unable to verify if you have consented to Podcast cookies. To view this content you can use the button below to allow Podcast cookies for this session only. Enable Cookies Allow Cookies Once
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Markets in France and Germany were more than 2% lower as wider sentiment was spooked by worse than expected figures showing a 3.8% contraction in eurozone economic growth during the first quarter of the year - figures covering only two weeks of lockdown conditions.
There was also, analysts said, a sense of disappointment after the European Central Bank (ECB) failed to expand the scope of its asset purchase programme while keeping core interest rates at record lows.
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Image: The European Central Bank is responsible for the euro area's monetary policy
That was despite its new president, Christine Lagarde, warning that an "unprecedented" slump was looming.
A day after it was revealed that the US economy shrank by 4.8% between January and March, new figures showed total US claims for unemployment benefits had risen above 30 million.
That was a rise of 3.8 million on the previous week.
Some risk-off selling in New York failed to prevent the S&P 500 recording its best month for 33 years.
In London, market analysts pointed to weak corporate earnings dragging the FTSE lower more widely on Thursday.
They cited companies including Lloyds Banking Group, which lost 7% on Wednesday as first quarter profits were wiped out by provisions for bad loans.
But AJ Bell investment director, Russ Mould, said Shell's dividend cut sent a wider signal.
He wrote in a note to clients: "Shell's decision is devastating to investors across the country as so many people own its shares directly or through their pension.
"Shell's actions could also lead to BP potentially reassessing its position in the near future."


news--2020-04-30--Ex-New Zealand PM Helen Clark: Public 'played as a team' to help bring COVID-19 under control

Former New Zealand prime minister Helen Clark has told the Sky News Daily podcast that her country was `` quietly quite pleased '' about how it has managed to contain the coronavirus outbreak .
Earlier this week , the current PM Jacinda Ardern partially lifted a month-long lockdown - one of the strictest in the world - which she credited with eliminating the domestic transmission of COVID-19 .
Around 400,000 people have returned to work after she lowered the country 's alert level , but shops and restaurants will remain closed as several social restrictions remain in place .
During @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at least 1,129 confirmed infections and 19 deaths - far fewer than many other countries around the world including in Europe .
Speaking to Sky 's Dermot Murnaghan , Ms Clark said : `` The measures would never have worked if the New Zealand public had n't played as a team of almost five million and almost entirely observed the rules . ''
Ms Clark cautioned that the country will have to remain isolated while the disease continues to spread around the world .
She said : `` New Zealand will be exercising @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is a vaccine .
Then , I guess people will have to provide proof that they have immunity .
`` I think that is the kind of measure countries will want to have in order to let people cross their borders . ''
She said Ms Ardern has had to deal with some `` mindboggling '' events in her three-year term but has `` stepped up and up '' .
`` COVID-19 will be the making or breaking of leaders and in the case of Jacinda I think she had already made her @ @ @ @ @ @ @ '' she said .
: : Listen to the Daily podcast on Apple Podcasts , Google Podcasts , Spotify , Spreaker

Former New Zealand prime minister Helen Clark has told the Sky News Daily podcast that her country was "quietly quite pleased" about how it has managed to contain the coronavirus outbreak.
Earlier this week, the current PM Jacinda Ardern partially lifted a month-long lockdown - one of the strictest in the world - which she credited with eliminating the domestic transmission of COVID-19.
Around 400,000 people have returned to work after she lowered the country's alert level, but shops and restaurants will remain closed as several social restrictions remain in place.
During the outbreak, New Zealand has had at least 1,129 confirmed infections and 19 deaths - far fewer than many other countries around the world including in Europe.
Image: Former New Zealand prime minister Helen Clark has praised the public
Speaking to Sky's Dermot Murnaghan, Ms Clark said: "The measures would never have worked if the New Zealand public hadn't played as a team of almost five million and almost entirely observed the rules."
Ms Clark cautioned that the country will have to remain isolated while the disease continues to spread around the world.
She said: "New Zealand will be exercising very strict control of borders until there is a vaccine. Then, I guess people will have to provide proof that they have immunity.
"I think that is the kind of measure countries will want to have in order to let people cross their borders."
Image: Current PM Jacinda Ardern has partially lifted a month-long lockdown
She said Ms Ardern has had to deal with some "mindboggling" events in her three-year term but has "stepped up and up".
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"COVID-19 will be the making or breaking of leaders and in the case of Jacinda I think she had already made her reputation but this absolutely consolidates it," she said.
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news--2020-04-30--Coronavirus: PM says UK 'past the peak' of outbreak and lockdown exit plan to come next week

Boris Johnson has declared the UK is `` past the peak and on the downward slope '' of the coronavirus outbreak .
The prime minister , speaking at the daily Downing Street COVID-19 briefing , also revealed he will next week set out the government 's exit plan - which could include Britons being told to wear face masks - for easing lockdown measures .
Mr Johnson thanked the public for their `` massive collective effort '' in protecting the NHS during the coronavirus outbreak .
`` At no stage has our NHS been overwhelmed , no patient went without @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of intensive care , '' he said .
`` It is thanks to that massive collective effort to shield the NHS that we avoided an uncontrollable and catastrophic epidemic where the reasonable worst-case scenario was 500,000 deaths .
`` I can confirm today that for the first time we are past the peak of this disease .
`` We are past the peak and on the downward slope . ''
But Mr Johnson warned of the risk of a `` second spike '' in coronavirus infections in the UK , the avoidance of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ five tests for lifting lockdown measures .
`` We have come through the peak - or rather we 've come under what could have been a vast peak , as though we 've been going through some huge alpine tunnel and we can now see the sunlight and pasture ahead of us , '' he said .
`` And so it is vital that we do not now lose control and run slap into a second and even bigger mountain . ''
The prime minister said , to avoid the `` disaster '' @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the government would do `` nothing '' that risks lifting the `` R '' - or reproduction rate - of the virus back above one ; which would mean each infected person was passing on the disease to at least one other person .
He warned a second spike in infections would cause `` lasting economic damage '' to the UK .
Announcing the latest death figures , which now include those who have died outside hospitals , Mr Johnson said there had now been 26,711 confirmed coronavirus deaths - an increase of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ having set a target of conducting 100,000 coronavirus tests per day by Friday , the prime minister revealed 81,611 tests had been carried out on Wednesday .
The government has recently faced increasing pressure to set out how lockdown measures - which have been in place since 23 March - might be eased , and Mr Johnson said he would unveil a `` comprehensive plan '' next week .
He said this would `` explain how we can get our economy moving , our children back to school and into childcare , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and make life in the workplace safer '' .
`` In short , how we can continue to suppress the disease and at the same time restart the economy , '' he added .
The prime minister said the plan would represent a `` road map '' and will provide a `` menu of options '' for lifting some lockdown measures .
`` The dates and times of each individual measure will be very much driven by where we are in the epidemic , what the data is really saying and we are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ day now and in the course of the next few days , '' he said .
The prime minister suggested the use of face masks could form a key part of the government 's strategy for relieving the stringent social distancing rules .
`` As part of coming out of the lockdown , I do think face coverings will be useful , '' he said .
`` Both for epidemiological reasons but , also , for giving people confidence that they can go back to work . ''
Mr Johnson dismissed suggestions that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ made in the aftermath of the pandemic .
`` I think the economy will bounce back strongly , I think that this government will want to encourage that bounce back in all kinds of ways , '' he said .
`` I 've never particularly liked the term ( austerity ) ... and it 'll certainly not be part of our approach . ''
The prime minister delivered the daily briefing from Downing Street for the first time since 25 March .
In the five weeks since he last appeared at the daily @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has been into - and discharged from - intensive care with COVID-19 , and then also been at the birth of his baby son with fiancee Carrie Symonds .
The prime minister described Wednesday 's visit to an NHS maternity ward as a `` very much happier hospital visit '' .
: : Listen to the All Out Politics podcast on Apple Podcasts , Google Podcasts , Spotify , Spreaker Earlier on Thursday , Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer told Sky News that the UK could end up with `` one of Europe @ @ @ @ @ @ @ inquiry into the government 's handling of the crisis was `` inevitable '' .
He said : `` I think the government was slow into lockdown , I think they were slow on testing and ramping up testing , they were slow on getting protective equipment to the right place at the right time and they 're still not where they need to be . ''

Boris Johnson has declared the UK is "past the peak and on the downward slope" of the coronavirus outbreak.
The prime minister, speaking at the daily Downing Street COVID-19 briefing, also revealed he will next week set out the government's exit plan - which could include Britons being told to wear face masks - for easing lockdown measures.
Mr Johnson thanked the public for their "massive collective effort" in protecting the NHS during the coronavirus outbreak.
Image: Graffiti in support of the NHS in southeast London
"At no stage has our NHS been overwhelmed, no patient went without a ventilator, no patient was deprived of intensive care," he said.
"It is thanks to that massive collective effort to shield the NHS that we avoided an uncontrollable and catastrophic epidemic where the reasonable worst-case scenario was 500,000 deaths.
"I can confirm today that for the first time we are past the peak of this disease.
"We are past the peak and on the downward slope."
But Mr Johnson warned of the risk of a "second spike" in coronavirus infections in the UK, the avoidance of which is part of the government's five tests for lifting lockdown measures.
"We have come through the peak - or rather we've come under what could have been a vast peak, as though we've been going through some huge alpine tunnel and we can now see the sunlight and pasture ahead of us," he said.
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"And so it is vital that we do not now lose control and run slap into a second and even bigger mountain."
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player 1:53 Govt video explains 'R' rate of infection
The prime minister said, to avoid the "disaster" of a second spike in infections, the government would do "nothing" that risks lifting the "R" - or reproduction rate - of the virus back above one; which would mean each infected person was passing on the disease to at least one other person.
He warned a second spike in infections would cause "lasting economic damage" to the UK.
Announcing the latest death figures, which now include those who have died outside hospitals, Mr Johnson said there had now been 26,711 confirmed coronavirus deaths - an increase of 674 since Wednesday.
With the government having set a target of conducting 100,000 coronavirus tests per day by Friday, the prime minister revealed 81,611 tests had been carried out on Wednesday.
The government has recently faced increasing pressure to set out how lockdown measures - which have been in place since 23 March - might be eased, and Mr Johnson said he would unveil a "comprehensive plan" next week.
He said this would "explain how we can get our economy moving, our children back to school and into childcare, and thirdly how we can travel to work and make life in the workplace safer".
"In short, how we can continue to suppress the disease and at the same time restart the economy," he added.
The prime minister said the plan would represent a "road map" and will provide a "menu of options" for lifting some lockdown measures.
"The dates and times of each individual measure will be very much driven by where we are in the epidemic, what the data is really saying and we are getting in a lot more data every day now and in the course of the next few days," he said.
The prime minister suggested the use of face masks could form a key part of the government's strategy for relieving the stringent social distancing rules.
"As part of coming out of the lockdown, I do think face coverings will be useful," he said.
"Both for epidemiological reasons but, also, for giving people confidence that they can go back to work."
Mr Johnson dismissed suggestions that austerity cuts to government spending could be made in the aftermath of the pandemic.
"I think the economy will bounce back strongly, I think that this government will want to encourage that bounce back in all kinds of ways," he said.
"I've never particularly liked the term (austerity)... and it'll certainly not be part of our approach."
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player 0:30 'I do think that face coverings will be useful'
The prime minister delivered the daily briefing from Downing Street for the first time since 25 March.
In the five weeks since he last appeared at the daily Number 10 news conference, Mr Johnson has been into - and discharged from - intensive care with COVID-19, and then also been at the birth of his baby son with fiancee Carrie Symonds.
The prime minister described Wednesday's visit to an NHS maternity ward as a "very much happier hospital visit".
Podcast Podcast , which may be using cookies and other technologies. To show you this content, we need your permission to use cookies. You can use the buttons below to amend your preferences to enable Podcast cookies or to allow those cookies just once. You can change your settings at any time via the This content is provided by, which may be using cookies and other technologies. To show you this content, we need your permission to use cookies. You can use the buttons below to amend your preferences to enablecookies or to allow those cookies just once. You can change your settings at any time via the Privacy Options Unfortunately we have been unable to verify if you have consented to Podcast cookies. To view this content you can use the button below to allow Podcast cookies for this session only. Enable Cookies Allow Cookies Once
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Earlier on Thursday, Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer told Sky News that the UK could end up with "one of Europe's worst death rates" and an inquiry into the government's handling of the crisis was "inevitable".
He said: "I think the government was slow into lockdown, I think they were slow on testing and ramping up testing, they were slow on getting protective equipment to the right place at the right time and they're still not where they need to be."


news--2020-04-30--Coronavirus: No easy answers for Boris Johnson - just hard choices and a long road ahead

It has been more than a month since the prime minister last appeared at the daily coronavirus news conference .
A lot has changed since then for him personally and for the nation he leads .
A personal journey that has taken Boris Johnson through grave illness and great joy in four short weeks .
From an intensive care unit in an NHS hospital suffering with coronavirus , to a maternity ward only yesterday to witness the birth of his new baby son .
And the nation has been on a journey too , from relatively normal life to lockdown @ @ @ @ @ @ @ epidemic flow through our communities and take the lives of thousands of our fellow citizens .
A time of anxiety and isolation punctuated by moments of solidarity and optimism - be it the weekly applause for the NHS or Colonel Tom Moore 's phenomenal fundraising .
The prime minister 's absence felt all the more acute by his return today , as he finally gave us some hope that the end of the beginning was now on the horizon .
He told us : `` We are past the peak and on the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ministerial stonewalling at the House of Commons ' despatch box and the daily news briefing , the prime minister finally gave us some insight about what the end of the beginning might look like .
Mr Johnson promised he would set out a detailed plan next week .
Getting children back to schools and adults back to work are the clear priorities .
As for our social lives , a senior minister told me that would have to wait .
They said : `` Bars and restaurants , no way .
Getting schools @ @ @ @ @ @ @ : Listen to the All Out Politics podcast on Apple Podcasts , Google Podcasts , Spotify , Spreaker Caution is the watchword .
The PM is not prepared to risk a second peak .
But he is at least beginning to prepare the ground for a change in direction from `` stay at home and save lives '' , to having a conversation about what we all need to do to keep the disease in abeyance , by working together to keep driving down the reproduction rate .
Keeping the ' R ' @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of everything the government will do in the coming weeks and months because it is the key to suppressing the disease .
`` It is going to be absolutely vital to our recovery , '' said the prime minister .
The reproduction rate is currently somewhere between 0.6-0.9 .
What we do n't know is what level the government will want to drive it down to before they begin to ease the lockdown - this is still not settled around the cabinet table either , according to one government figure .
`` What @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ( Health Secretary ) Matt Hancock want it to get down to ? ''
they said .
`` Does he want to get it down to 0.2 or below 0.5 .
Will 0.7 be ok ? ''
Mr Johnson is now waiting on data from the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies ( SAGE ) before he gives us our options and outlines the trade-offs next week .
But we are only at the beginning of the end of this crisis , and Mr Johnson knows it .
The flamboyant , jovial prime minister @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sombre figure .
The clues to how acute his illness had been is still plain to see as he delivered his script .
He was a little breathless at times and lacking the trademark high energy that has become the hallmark of his political performance .
For he knows , better than most , the gravity of the situation we are in .
He has personally seen this dreadful disease up close and must now try to navigate a policy route of how we might live with it .
Ease the lockdown too @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the wrath of what comes with that .
Wait too long and risk not having much of an economy to return to , and a different sort of public health crisis .
He knows above all that he has to take the public with him .
It was telling that the prime minister signalled a U-turn over using face marks on Thursday - in direct contradiction to Mr Hancock .
`` As part of coming out of the lockdown , I do think face coverings will be useful , '' Mr Johnson said @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , also , for giving people confidence that they can go back to work . ''
Because that is what the public will need : confidence .
It was public opinion that pushed the UK into the lockdown and the government must now try to shift public opinion to ease us out .
If wearing a face mask psychologically helps people venture outside , then face coverings are the order of the day .
A poll out this week by Ipsos MORI found the UK to be the most cautious of 14 countries @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and returning to work before the virus is under control .
It found only one in four Britons were in favour of relaxing the lockdown before the virus is suppressed , with an overwhelming 70 % opposed .
Fresh out of a stint in intensive care , the prime minister will be able to empathise with those millions of Britons who will be feeling that their health is ultimately more important than their wealth .
But he has to govern too , not just for those who are fearful of exiting the lockdown @ @ @ @ @ @ @ easing restrictions will ruin their businesses , ruin their mental health , ruin their education .
There are no easy answers ; just hard choices and a long road ahead .

It has been more than a month since the prime minister last appeared at the daily coronavirus news conference.
A lot has changed since then for him personally and for the nation he leads.
A personal journey that has taken Boris Johnson through grave illness and great joy in four short weeks.
From an intensive care unit in an NHS hospital suffering with coronavirus, to a maternity ward only yesterday to witness the birth of his new baby son.
And the nation has been on a journey too, from relatively normal life to lockdown; watching the horror of the coronavirus epidemic flow through our communities and take the lives of thousands of our fellow citizens.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player 0:54 PM: Virus is 'on the downward slope'
A time of anxiety and isolation punctuated by moments of solidarity and optimism - be it the weekly applause for the NHS or Colonel Tom Moore's phenomenal fundraising.
The prime minister's absence felt all the more acute by his return today, as he finally gave us some hope that the end of the beginning was now on the horizon. He told us: "We are past the peak and on the downward slope."
After days of ministerial stonewalling at the House of Commons' despatch box and the daily news briefing, the prime minister finally gave us some insight about what the end of the beginning might look like.
Mr Johnson promised he would set out a detailed plan next week.
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Getting children back to schools and adults back to work are the clear priorities.
As for our social lives, a senior minister told me that would have to wait.
They said: "Bars and restaurants, no way. Getting schools back is difficult enough."
Podcast Podcast , which may be using cookies and other technologies. To show you this content, we need your permission to use cookies. You can use the buttons below to amend your preferences to enable Podcast cookies or to allow those cookies just once. You can change your settings at any time via the This content is provided by, which may be using cookies and other technologies. To show you this content, we need your permission to use cookies. You can use the buttons below to amend your preferences to enablecookies or to allow those cookies just once. You can change your settings at any time via the Privacy Options Unfortunately we have been unable to verify if you have consented to Podcast cookies. To view this content you can use the button below to allow Podcast cookies for this session only. Enable Cookies Allow Cookies Once
:: Listen to the All Out Politics podcast on Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts, Spotify, Spreaker
Caution is the watchword. The PM is not prepared to risk a second peak.
But he is at least beginning to prepare the ground for a change in direction from "stay at home and save lives", to having a conversation about what we all need to do to keep the disease in abeyance, by working together to keep driving down the reproduction rate.
Keeping the 'R' rate below one is the guiding principle of everything the government will do in the coming weeks and months because it is the key to suppressing the disease.
"It is going to be absolutely vital to our recovery," said the prime minister.
The reproduction rate is currently somewhere between 0.6-0.9.
What we don't know is what level the government will want to drive it down to before they begin to ease the lockdown - this is still not settled around the cabinet table either, according to one government figure.
"What isn't clear yet is what does (Health Secretary) Matt Hancock want it to get down to?" they said.
"Does he want to get it down to 0.2 or below 0.5. Will 0.7 be ok?"
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player 1:53 Govt video explains COVID-19 'rate of infection'
Mr Johnson is now waiting on data from the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) before he gives us our options and outlines the trade-offs next week.
But we are only at the beginning of the end of this crisis, and Mr Johnson knows it.
The flamboyant, jovial prime minister was replaced today by a far more sombre figure.
The clues to how acute his illness had been is still plain to see as he delivered his script.
He was a little breathless at times and lacking the trademark high energy that has become the hallmark of his political performance.
For he knows, better than most, the gravity of the situation we are in.
He has personally seen this dreadful disease up close and must now try to navigate a policy route of how we might live with it.
Ease the lockdown too soon and risk a second peak and the wrath of what comes with that.
Wait too long and risk not having much of an economy to return to, and a different sort of public health crisis.
He knows above all that he has to take the public with him.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player 0:30 'I do think that face coverings will be useful'
It was telling that the prime minister signalled a U-turn over using face marks on Thursday - in direct contradiction to Mr Hancock.
"As part of coming out of the lockdown, I do think face coverings will be useful," Mr Johnson said.
"Both for epidemiological reasons but, also, for giving people confidence that they can go back to work."
Because that is what the public will need: confidence.
It was public opinion that pushed the UK into the lockdown and the government must now try to shift public opinion to ease us out.
If wearing a face mask psychologically helps people venture outside, then face coverings are the order of the day.
A poll out this week by Ipsos MORI found the UK to be the most cautious of 14 countries on the prospect of re-opening the economy and returning to work before the virus is under control.
It found only one in four Britons were in favour of relaxing the lockdown before the virus is suppressed, with an overwhelming 70% opposed.
Fresh out of a stint in intensive care, the prime minister will be able to empathise with those millions of Britons who will be feeling that their health is ultimately more important than their wealth.
But he has to govern too, not just for those who are fearful of exiting the lockdown but those who are fearful that not easing restrictions will ruin their businesses, ruin their mental health, ruin their education.
There are no easy answers; just hard choices and a long road ahead.


news--2020-04-30--Coronavirus: President Jair Bolsonaro dismissive as overwhelmed Brazilians dig mass graves

Now it is Latin America 's turn to face the pain of the COVID-19 storm that has spread west across the globe .
In Brazil , the health service is ill-prepared ; in truth it is already overwhelmed .
They ca n't fight this virus - instead they are digging thousands upon thousands of graves in the city of Sao Paulo .
The pictures filmed for Sky News by cameraman Eduardo Duwe at the Vila Formosa cemetery , the largest in Latin America , are simply staggering .
More than 13,000 graves are being dug .
From the air , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ astonishing .
Grave after grave stretches as far as the eye can see .
This is a public cemetery , mainly used by the poorest families .
In Sao Paulo , the poorest areas are being hit the worst .
Medical workers across Brazil have n't given up hope , but there is no battle , no real war on the virus , and they are facing defeat .
The graves are perhaps a symbol of the failure to contain , and the failure to lock down .
In full hazmat gear , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ over the freshly dug earth , while grieving family members follow behind .
Sky News producer Marcia Reverdosa spent two days at the cemetery documenting what is happening there .
We ca n't join her in Brazil as all entry to the country for foreigners is now closed .
She told us what it was like when she entered the gates of Vila Formosa .
`` It was a tense and deeply sad atmosphere , but also there was this rush .
Everything was at a very fast pace , something you do @ @ @ @ @ @ @ site , '' she said .
`` Arrival , document checking and then if there was space they would grant the family some minutes to mourn , otherwise the coffin was just taken by a van immediately to the grave .
`` No time for a prayer or anything , no time for goodbyes , no chance to see your loved one for one last time .
`` Families were standing at the site surrounded by open graves .
It was devastating .
When it was done , another family would then take @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the process would start again , '' Marcia explained .
: : Listen to the Daily podcast on Apple Podcasts , Google Podcasts , Spotify , Spreaker Such is the stigma of the disease that many people in Latin America simply refuse to acknowledge that their loved ones died of COVID-19 .
Even if the hospitals believe the victims did die of the virus , there is little testing taking place so the families simply do n't acknowledge the official report .
Only small groups of family members are allowed inside the cemetery @ @ @ @ @ @ @ graves are separate but the dead are covered over en masse .
To all intents and purposes , this is a mass grave .
Across the world , the phenomenon of this virus is always the same : everyone dies alone .
Marcilene Dias da Silva saw her brother enter hospital - that was the last time .
`` I can only think of how much pain he went through , '' she told us through tears .
`` Now he ca n't even be buried properly , he had nothing .
`` @ @ @ @ @ @ @ when he entered the ICU , and then he never came back .
That was the last time I saw him .
Just like that . ''
They have been digging graves here non-stop for the past two weeks .
They are doing about 800 a day .
The workers thought they would be done by now but they have been told to keep going .
James Alan Gomes da Silva is a 34-year-old grave digger who has been doing the job for seven years .
His biggest worry is getting infected because @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a family .
He says his team of diggers try to be as careful as possible , always cleaning themselves and looking out for each other .
Not even half the population of Sao Paolo is respecting the lockdown , but the state has the highest infection rate in the country .
Mr da Silva says it feels like people only start to take the virus seriously when it happens to them .
`` At the beginning of our shift I take a picture with my whole team and post it online saying @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is not a joke , '' he told us .
`` Someone very close to me died yesterday .
She was from my neighbourhood and she passed away yesterday .
She had already lost a relative , so you see , it is not a joke .
`` When it is not close to you you can say 'oh this is just a story people tell , it is not real ' , but when it is really close to you , you see how serious it is . ''
Brazil 's president @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this pandemic as `` a little flu '' .
Asked about the death rate surpassing China , he gave this terse response : `` So what ?
I mourn [ the deaths ] but what do you want me to do ?
My name is Messias but I ca n't work miracles . ''
He ca n't work miracles for sure , but by denying the dangers of COVID-19 and actively sabotaging lockdown plans in some of the country 's major cities , he has allowed the virus to spread like wildfire .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ and his opinion is irrelevant as they are dying here in huge numbers .
`` In the past two weeks you can notice more and more people are out in the streets , and it gives a sense of normality which should n't exist yet , '' she told us .
`` We are reaching our peak here with hospitals about to collapse and cemeteries working double time to keep up with the demand .
It is frustrating . ''

Now it is Latin America's turn to face the pain of the COVID-19 storm that has spread west across the globe.
In Brazil, the health service is ill-prepared; in truth it is already overwhelmed.
They can't fight this virus - instead they are digging thousands upon thousands of graves in the city of Sao Paulo.
The pictures filmed for Sky News by cameraman Eduardo Duwe at the Vila Formosa cemetery, the largest in Latin America, are simply staggering.
Image: More than 13,000 graves are being dug at the site
More than 13,000 graves are being dug. From the air, the enormity of this digging operation is astonishing. Grave after grave stretches as far as the eye can see.
This is a public cemetery, mainly used by the poorest families. In Sao Paulo, the poorest areas are being hit the worst.
Medical workers across Brazil haven't given up hope, but there is no battle, no real war on the virus, and they are facing defeat.
The graves are perhaps a symbol of the failure to contain, and the failure to lock down.
In full hazmat gear, the grave diggers and burial teams struggle over the freshly dug earth, while grieving family members follow behind.
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Image: Vila Formosa cemetery is mainly used by the poorest families
Image: Only small groups are allowed inside the cemetery
Sky News producer Marcia Reverdosa spent two days at the cemetery documenting what is happening there.
We can't join her in Brazil as all entry to the country for foreigners is now closed.
She told us what it was like when she entered the gates of Vila Formosa.
"It was a tense and deeply sad atmosphere, but also there was this rush. Everything was at a very fast pace, something you don't expect to see at a funeral site," she said.
"Arrival, document checking and then if there was space they would grant the family some minutes to mourn, otherwise the coffin was just taken by a van immediately to the grave.
"No time for a prayer or anything, no time for goodbyes, no chance to see your loved one for one last time.
"Families were standing at the site surrounded by open graves. It was devastating. When it was done, another family would then take their position on the next grave and the process would start again," Marcia explained.
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:: Listen to the Daily podcast on Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts, Spotify, Spreaker
Such is the stigma of the disease that many people in Latin America simply refuse to acknowledge that their loved ones died of COVID-19.
Even if the hospitals believe the victims did die of the virus, there is little testing taking place so the families simply don't acknowledge the official report.
Only small groups of family members are allowed inside the cemetery. Most look in shock.
The graves are separate but the dead are covered over en masse. To all intents and purposes, this is a mass grave.
Across the world, the phenomenon of this virus is always the same: everyone dies alone.
Marcilene Dias da Silva saw her brother enter hospital - that was the last time.
Image: Marcilene Dias da Silva says she last saw her brother before he went to hospital
"I can only think of how much pain he went through," she told us through tears.
"Now he can't even be buried properly, he had nothing.
"The last time I saw him was when he entered the ICU, and then he never came back. That was the last time I saw him. Just like that."
They have been digging graves here non-stop for the past two weeks. They are doing about 800 a day. The workers thought they would be done by now but they have been told to keep going.
James Alan Gomes da Silva is a 34-year-old grave digger who has been doing the job for seven years.
Image: James Gomes da Silva has worries about becoming infected
His biggest worry is getting infected because he, like so many, has a family.
He says his team of diggers try to be as careful as possible, always cleaning themselves and looking out for each other.
Not even half the population of Sao Paolo is respecting the lockdown, but the state has the highest infection rate in the country.
Mr da Silva says it feels like people only start to take the virus seriously when it happens to them.
Image: Cemetery workers lower a coffin into a grave
"At the beginning of our shift I take a picture with my whole team and post it online saying 'stay at home', because this is not a joke," he told us.
"Someone very close to me died yesterday. She was from my neighbourhood and she passed away yesterday. She had already lost a relative, so you see, it is not a joke.
"When it is not close to you you can say 'oh this is just a story people tell, it is not real', but when it is really close to you, you see how serious it is."
Brazil's president, Jair Bolsanaro, is still dismissing this pandemic as "a little flu".
Asked about the death rate surpassing China, he gave this terse response: "So what? I mourn [the deaths] but what do you want me to do? My name is Messias but I can't work miracles."
Image: Flowers are placed on the graves
He can't work miracles for sure, but by denying the dangers of COVID-19 and actively sabotaging lockdown plans in some of the country's major cities, he has allowed the virus to spread like wildfire.
He is wrong, of course, and his opinion is irrelevant as they are dying here in huge numbers.
Marcia is exasperated.
"In the past two weeks you can notice more and more people are out in the streets, and it gives a sense of normality which shouldn't exist yet," she told us.
"We are reaching our peak here with hospitals about to collapse and cemeteries working double time to keep up with the demand. It is frustrating."


news--2020-04-30--Coronavirus: New tool will forecast how GP surgeries would cope with a second peak in cases

The government will be able to test how GP surgeries might react to a second coronavirus peak or further PPE shortages thanks to a new forecasting tool being developed by the NHS , Sky News can reveal .
The local forecasting system , which is being developed by NHS innovation unit NHSX , uses thousands of health and social data feeds to model the impact of different COVID-19 scenarios , according to a person familiar with the project .
Whereas the models currently used by the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies ( SAGE ) are national and regional , Sky @ @ @ @ @ @ @ make predictions about areas as small as 1,000 people .
This can be used to test how GP surgeries , local hospitals or hospital trusts would react to different scenarios created by SAGE and other scientific groups , enabling the government and the NHS to plan the response to the pandemic .
The person familiar with the project said the tool could be used for health service planning if the government decided to lift the lockdown region by region .
`` You can do scenario modelling at a local level then that would @ @ @ @ @ @ @ decisions , '' the person said .
`` That does n't mean people will be given the authority to make local decisions , but that local modelling is an innovation and a really important one when circumstances are so different in different parts of the country . ''
The tool , which is being built by London-based AI company Faculty , extends the capabilities of a new NHS `` data store '' , which was unveiled last month .
Sky News revealed in March that NHSX had hired a number of companies - @ @ @ @ @ @ @ controversial Silicon Valley firm Palantir - to pull more than 1,000 data feeds from across the health and social care system into a single , secure location .
The data included the numbers and locations of beds and ventilators , A & E capacity , calls to NHS 111 and active NHS staff .
Since then , the data store has been adapted to track the number and location of personal protective equipment , or PPE , which has been in short supply across the health and social care system .
To make @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was supplemented with census data from the Office for National Statistics , which shows the demographics of each local area .
Sky News understands that the tool , which will be made open source , is intended to be used after the pandemic as part of Health Secretary Matt Hancock 's broader effort to reform the NHS 's use of technology .
Professor Martin Marshall , chair of the Royal College of GPs , told Sky News that data sharing during the pandemic was `` sensible '' , but called on the government @ @ @ @ @ @ @ about the impact on patients .
`` It would be useful to have more detailed plans on how the new data project will work , '' he said .
`` As we continue to engage with NHSX and NHS Digital during the COVID-19 outbreak , we 're keen to ensure that the action being taken is purely for COVID-related planning and care . ''
`` There must be a balance between providing the best care for patients while protecting their rights and expectations . ''
Unveiling the data store , Matthew Gould , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ maintain patient confidentiality , including strict rules over data protection and closing the data store once the pandemic was over .
Yet the person familiar with the project said even if the data was deleted , the tool could be employed by the health service to deal with ordinary demand .
`` I think this is going to be the best planning tool that local hospitals have ever had and it could be used to model business as usual after COVID , '' they added .
The forecasting system has been based on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ University of Oxford , which is leading the scientific work on the government 's planned contact tracing app .
Faculty , whose co-founder Marc Warner 's brother Ben carried out data analysis for the Leave campaign and now works in Downing Street , has been the subject of social media rumours about its connection to the app .
Asked whether Faculty had contributed to this project , a spokesperson for the Big Data Institute told Sky News that the firm had helped to make the scientific model open source , but had not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
They added : `` The digital contact tracing modelling , epidemiological analysis and preparation of scientific evidence has been carried out by the team at Oxford University .
`` Faculty has not been involved in this work , and has made no contribution to our work on simulating contact tracing . ''
Sky News revealed in March that the app is being built by Pivotal , a subsidiary of American tech company VMWare , a fact confirmed this week by Mr Gould to the Science and Technology Committee .

The government will be able to test how GP surgeries might react to a second coronavirus peak or further PPE shortages thanks to a new forecasting tool being developed by the NHS, Sky News can reveal.
The local forecasting system, which is being developed by NHS innovation unit NHSX, uses thousands of health and social data feeds to model the impact of different COVID-19 scenarios, according to a person familiar with the project.
Whereas the models currently used by the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) are national and regional, Sky News understands that the new tool can make predictions about areas as small as 1,000 people.
This can be used to test how GP surgeries, local hospitals or hospital trusts would react to different scenarios created by SAGE and other scientific groups, enabling the government and the NHS to plan the response to the pandemic.
The person familiar with the project said the tool could be used for health service planning if the government decided to lift the lockdown region by region.
"You can do scenario modelling at a local level then that would give you the information to make local decisions," the person said.
"That doesn't mean people will be given the authority to make local decisions, but that local modelling is an innovation and a really important one when circumstances are so different in different parts of the country."
The tool, which is being built by London-based AI company Faculty, extends the capabilities of a new NHS "data store", which was unveiled last month.
Sky News revealed in March that NHSX had hired a number of companies - including Faculty, Amazon, Google and controversial Silicon Valley firm Palantir - to pull more than 1,000 data feeds from across the health and social care system into a single, secure location.
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The data included the numbers and locations of beds and ventilators, A&E capacity, calls to NHS 111 and active NHS staff.
Since then, the data store has been adapted to track the number and location of personal protective equipment, or PPE, which has been in short supply across the health and social care system.
Image: Protesters have called for more PPE for healthcare workers
To make the local forecasting tool, the system was supplemented with census data from the Office for National Statistics, which shows the demographics of each local area.
Sky News understands that the tool, which will be made open source, is intended to be used after the pandemic as part of Health Secretary Matt Hancock's broader effort to reform the NHS's use of technology.
Professor Martin Marshall, chair of the Royal College of GPs, told Sky News that data sharing during the pandemic was "sensible", but called on the government to be more transparent, in particular about the impact on patients.
"It would be useful to have more detailed plans on how the new data project will work," he said.
"As we continue to engage with NHSX and NHS Digital during the COVID-19 outbreak, we're keen to ensure that the action being taken is purely for COVID-related planning and care."
"There must be a balance between providing the best care for patients while protecting their rights and expectations."
Unveiling the data store, Matthew Gould, CEO of NHSX, promised measures to maintain patient confidentiality, including strict rules over data protection and closing the data store once the pandemic was over.
Yet the person familiar with the project said even if the data was deleted, the tool could be employed by the health service to deal with ordinary demand.
"I think this is going to be the best planning tool that local hospitals have ever had and it could be used to model business as usual after COVID," they added.
The forecasting system has been based on modelling by Big Data Institute at the University of Oxford, which is leading the scientific work on the government's planned contact tracing app.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player 5:01 Ex-NHS England boss decries lack of PPE
Faculty, whose co-founder Marc Warner's brother Ben carried out data analysis for the Leave campaign and now works in Downing Street, has been the subject of social media rumours about its connection to the app.
Asked whether Faculty had contributed to this project, a spokesperson for the Big Data Institute told Sky News that the firm had helped to make the scientific model open source, but had not been involved in any of the research.
They added: "The digital contact tracing modelling, epidemiological analysis and preparation of scientific evidence has been carried out by the team at Oxford University.
"Faculty has not been involved in this work, and has made no contribution to our work on simulating contact tracing."
Sky News revealed in March that the app is being built by Pivotal, a subsidiary of American tech company VMWare, a fact confirmed this week by Mr Gould to the Science and Technology Committee.


news--2020-04-30--Coronavirus to trigger 'biggest ever fall' in energy demand and carbon emissions, experts say

The coronavirus lockdowns in many countries are set to lead to record falls in global energy demand and carbon dioxide emissions this year , experts predict .
Fossil fuel use is expected to decline dramatically , bringing down emissions six times faster than after the 2008 financial crash .
The International Energy Agency ( IEA ) is forecasting renewables will be the only energy source to grow this year as countries shut down during the coronavirus pandemic .
Global energy demand could slump by 6 % in 2020 due to the restrictions put on homes and industry in what would @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on record , according to the IEA .
The watchdog expects a reduction of around 2.6 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide from energy use while most commuting and international travel grinds to a halt .
It expects the rate of annual decline of carbon dioxide emissions to be a historic 8 % - twice as large as all previous declines since the end of World War Two combined .
Demand for energy sources are predicted to fall : But the IEA warned the COVID-19 outbreak will likely follow the path of other crises @ @ @ @ @ @ @ higher level when it is over .
Executive director Dr Faith Birol said the current `` staggering '' downturn in fossil fuel use is `` absolutely nothing to cheer '' given the number of deaths and amount of `` economic trauma '' it has caused .
He cautioned : `` We are likely to soon see a sharp rebound in emissions as economic conditions improve .
`` But governments can learn from that experience by putting clean energy technologies - renewables , efficiency , batteries , hydrogen and carbon capture - at the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
`` Investing in those areas can create jobs , make economies more competitive and steer the world towards a more resilient and cleaner energy future . ''
Lockdowns have pushed electricity demand down by 20 % or more in some areas , while power consumption levels on weekdays have looked `` like those of a pre-crisis Sunday '' .
The report where the IEA made its predictions also forecasted global energy demand will fall 6 % in 2020 , the equivalent of losing the entire demand of India - the world 's @ @ @ @ @ @ @ power sources including wind , solar , hydro and nuclear are set to extend their lead over the fossil fuel in 2020 , to reach 40 % of global electricity generation , the report said .
Last week , oil prices in the US crashed below zero for the first time , given demand for energy has plummeted .

The coronavirus lockdowns in many countries are set to lead to record falls in global energy demand and carbon dioxide emissions this year, experts predict.
Fossil fuel use is expected to decline dramatically, bringing down emissions six times faster than after the 2008 financial crash.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) is forecasting renewables will be the only energy source to grow this year as countries shut down during the coronavirus pandemic.
Global energy demand could slump by 6% in 2020 due to the restrictions put on homes and industry in what would be the largest contraction in absolute terms on record, according to the IEA.
The watchdog expects a reduction of around 2.6 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide from energy use while most commuting and international travel grinds to a halt.
Image: The IEA said there would likely be a 'sharp rebound' when the pandemic is over
It expects the rate of annual decline of carbon dioxide emissions to be a historic 8% - twice as large as all previous declines since the end of World War Two combined.
Demand for energy sources are predicted to fall:
Oil - 9%
Coal - 8%
Natural gas - 5%
But the IEA warned the COVID-19 outbreak will likely follow the path of other crises and see emissions rebound to an even higher level when it is over.
Executive director Dr Faith Birol said the current "staggering" downturn in fossil fuel use is "absolutely nothing to cheer" given the number of deaths and amount of "economic trauma" it has caused.
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Image: Oil prices plummeted below zero for the first time last week
He cautioned: "We are likely to soon see a sharp rebound in emissions as economic conditions improve.
"But governments can learn from that experience by putting clean energy technologies - renewables, efficiency, batteries, hydrogen and carbon capture - at the heart of their plans for economic recovery.
"Investing in those areas can create jobs, make economies more competitive and steer the world towards a more resilient and cleaner energy future."
Image: Renewables will be the only energy source to grow, the IEA says
Lockdowns have pushed electricity demand down by 20% or more in some areas, while power consumption levels on weekdays have looked "like those of a pre-crisis Sunday".
The report where the IEA made its predictions also forecasted global energy demand will fall 6% in 2020, the equivalent of losing the entire demand of India - the world's third largest energy user.
And low-carbon power sources including wind, solar, hydro and nuclear are set to extend their lead over the fossil fuel in 2020, to reach 40% of global electricity generation, the report said.
Last week, oil prices in the US crashed below zero for the first time, given demand for energy has plummeted.