npr--2020-04-30--'A Community Of Desperation' Finding Sympathy And Solidarity In Dorothea Lange

' A Community Of Desperation ' Finding Sympathy And Solidarity In Dorothea Lange The U.S. government paid Dorothea Lange to take photographs .
She 's best known for her work with such federal programs as the Farm Security Administration , where she documented the painful economic and environmental crises of the 1930s and '40s across the American West .
Across her body of work there are intimate glimpses of Great Depression bread lines , Japanese American internment camps during World War II and migrant farm workers — including the subject of perhaps her most famous portrait , Migrant Mother .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ and lots of notes , scribbling constantly as she worked : recording how her subjects spoke , what they were doing to get by , why their lives took shape as they did .
`` I went out just absolutely in the blind staggering , as something to do , '' Lange herself said in interviews conducted over 1960 and '61 and preserved by the University of California , Berkeley 's Oral History Center .
`` Well , I really kept to it . ''
Those notes helped inspire a retrospective of Lange @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Museum of Modern Art , which opened in mid-February ... and promptly closed less than a month later because of a different kind of crisis , the coronavirus pandemic .
`` The installation views are there .
The pictures are hanging in the dark , '' says Sarah Meister , the exhibition 's curator .
`` And now it 's like , 'OK , so then what ? '
`` So , Meister and her colleagues decided to relaunch the exhibition as a weeklong , entirely online experience — including views of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and some added video and podcast segments .
That project , which goes live Thursday , also offered an opportunity to reframe some of Lange 's work in light of the tumult caused by the pandemic .
She points to one piece , in particular .
`` Her photograph from 1938 about unemployment aid beginning .
It 's this line of men in hats standing very close together .
It 's just this very self-enclosed , sad , desperate plodding , hopeless kind of picture , '' she recalls .
The echoes with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
More than 30 million people — or 1 out of every 5 people who had a job in February — have filed for unemployment in the past six weeks alone , as the coronavirus and widespread lockdown efforts take their toll .
The U.S. economy may see its sharpest economic downturn since Lange 's own day , during the Great Depression .
But in a weird way , Meister adds , looking at Lange 's work also offers a sense of solidarity across time : `` You know , even a community @ @ @ @ @ @ @ '' Tess Taylor certainly feels that connection .
The poet — and occasional NPR contributor — composed a book of poetry inspired by Lange 's work , Last West , some of which was included in the MoMA exhibition .
Taylor traveled throughout California , following some of Lange 's own travels , and says something unmistakable still shines through the photographs .
`` There 's a restless desire to find a way to document the scope of this crisis — but also to make it feel human , and to capture it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ says .
That poses some difficult questions to Lange 's viewers .
`` What do we owe one another as a form of common dignity ?
How do we support one another ?
How is our well-being intimately welded to one another 's well-being ? ''
Taylor asks .
`` Those are her questions , and they 're also questions that we are feeling very , very sharply right now . ''
She says the photographer keeps coming to mind as she looks around her neighborhood , not too far from where Lange @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
And as Taylor sees the melancholy menagerie of signs hanging outside her local stores — `` Closed , reopening shortly , we 're gone now ... [ and ] one store that says , 'We 'll be back tomorrow , ' but it 's had that sign up for six weeks '' — Taylor often gets out her own notebook .
Since the photographer 's not here to do it , the poet is taking notes for her .
Taylor does n't know what she will do with that list yet .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ when she was just starting a project .
It was advice she offered to young photographers .
`` Do n't let that question stop you , '' Lange explained in those early 1960s interviews .
`` Ways often open that are unpredictable if you pursue it far enough . ''
In other words , just keep your eyes and your heart open .
Your notebook , too .

'A Community Of Desperation' Finding Sympathy And Solidarity In Dorothea Lange
Enlarge this image toggle caption Dorothea Lange/ Courtesy of the Museum of Modern Art, New York Dorothea Lange/ Courtesy of the Museum of Modern Art, New York
The U.S. government paid Dorothea Lange to take photographs.
She's best known for her work with such federal programs as the Farm Security Administration, where she documented the painful economic and environmental crises of the 1930s and '40s across the American West. Across her body of work there are intimate glimpses of Great Depression bread lines, Japanese American internment camps during World War II and migrant farm workers — including the subject of perhaps her most famous portrait, Migrant Mother.
But she also took notes — lots and lots of notes, scribbling constantly as she worked: recording how her subjects spoke, what they were doing to get by, why their lives took shape as they did.
"I went out just absolutely in the blind staggering, as something to do," Lange herself said in interviews conducted over 1960 and '61 and preserved by the University of California, Berkeley's Oral History Center. "Well, I really kept to it."
Those notes helped inspire a retrospective of Lange's work at New York City's Museum of Modern Art, which opened in mid-February ... and promptly closed less than a month later because of a different kind of crisis, the coronavirus pandemic.
NOTE TO SELF: Possible title, 'To Hold This Soil' ... NOTE TO SELF: General Theme of Book, 'People left stranded by the outwash of industry in America' ... NOTE TO SELF: US-99: The Splendor & the Rest of It ... Note: young trees ... Note: poor man's canyon. A subject on the move ... NOTE TO SELF: Really do the work, Follow the whole travel, destination unknown.
"The installation views are there. The pictures are hanging in the dark," says Sarah Meister, the exhibition's curator. "And now it's like, 'OK, so then what?' "
So, Meister and her colleagues decided to relaunch the exhibition as a weeklong, entirely online experience — including views of the installation, a live Q&A and some added video and podcast segments. That project, which goes live Thursday, also offered an opportunity to reframe some of Lange's work in light of the tumult caused by the pandemic.
She points to one piece, in particular.
"Her photograph from 1938 about unemployment aid beginning. It's this line of men in hats standing very close together. It's just this very self-enclosed, sad, desperate plodding, hopeless kind of picture," she recalls.
The echoes with today's desperate unemployment landscape are inescapable. More than 30 million people — or 1 out of every 5 people who had a job in February — have filed for unemployment in the past six weeks alone, as the coronavirus and widespread lockdown efforts take their toll. The U.S. economy may see its sharpest economic downturn since Lange's own day, during the Great Depression.
Enlarge this image toggle caption Dorothea Lange/Courtesy of the Museum of Modern Art, New York Dorothea Lange/Courtesy of the Museum of Modern Art, New York
But in a weird way, Meister adds, looking at Lange's work also offers a sense of solidarity across time: "You know, even a community of desperation is still a community."
Tess Taylor certainly feels that connection. The poet — and occasional NPR contributor — composed a book of poetry inspired by Lange's work, Last West, some of which was included in the MoMA exhibition. Taylor traveled throughout California, following some of Lange's own travels, and says something unmistakable still shines through the photographs.
"There's a restless desire to find a way to document the scope of this crisis — but also to make it feel human, and to capture it at a human scale," Taylor says.
That poses some difficult questions to Lange's viewers.
"What do we owe one another as a form of common dignity? How do we support one another? How is our well-being intimately welded to one another's well-being?" Taylor asks. "Those are her questions, and they're also questions that we are feeling very, very sharply right now."
Enlarge this image toggle caption Dorothea Lange/Courtesy of the Museum of Modern Art, New York Dorothea Lange/Courtesy of the Museum of Modern Art, New York
She says the photographer keeps coming to mind as she looks around her neighborhood, not too far from where Lange lived in the San Francisco Bay area. And as Taylor sees the melancholy menagerie of signs hanging outside her local stores — "Closed, reopening shortly, we're gone now ... [and] one store that says, 'We'll be back tomorrow,' but it's had that sign up for six weeks" — Taylor often gets out her own notebook. Since the photographer's not here to do it, the poet is taking notes for her.
Taylor doesn't know what she will do with that list yet. Then again, rarely did Lange, when she was just starting a project. It was advice she offered to young photographers.
"Don't let that question stop you," Lange explained in those early 1960s interviews. "Ways often open that are unpredictable if you pursue it far enough."
In other words, just keep your eyes and your heart open. Your notebook, too.


npr--2020-04-30--A Mexican 'Lucha Libre' Wrestler Is Sewing Masks To Fight Coronavirus

Until last month , Hijo del Soberano was making a good living as a wrestler on Mexico 's freestyle wrestling or lucha libre circuit .
He would suit up four nights a week in his green-and-gold Lycra leggings and matching character mask for bouts in front of cheering crowds in his city 's lucha arena .
Then the coronavirus pandemic hit .
The wrestling venue was shuttered .
Hijo del Soberano means `` the sovereign 's son '' — he wo n't divulge his real name .
`` As a professional luchador [ wrestler ] , we guard our identities @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from his home in the northern Mexican city of Torreón .
He not only lost wages from the canceled matches , but his side gig dried up , too .
Hijo del Soberano and his wife sew costumes and the colorful , sometimes intimidating , masks the luchadores wear .
Collectors around the world buy the couple 's designs , paying as much as $ 200 .
`` We make everything for the lucha libre experience here at our workshop , '' he says .
Hijo del Soberano says about a week or @ @ @ @ @ @ @ began officially March 30 , he started getting desperate .
They could n't pay bills or buy food .
His wife suggested they put their sewing machines to use .
Why not make surgical-style masks to guard against the virus ?
`` 'No , no , ' I said , ' I make [ full-face ] costume masks , ' '' he says .
But with bills coming due and food running low , he relented .
`` Early one morning , I heard this noise coming from the sewing room , '' @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
`` By the time I got up , he had sewn several different types . ''
Hijo del Soberano says the switch was n't too hard .
`` I just altered my skills a bit and made the mask from the nose to the chin , '' he says .
He kept all the details and flair of his full-face designs , and still pays homage to Mexico 's most famous luchadores : There 's a silver mask like El Santo 's , a blue-and-white covering similar to Blue Demon 's — @ @ @ @ @ @ @ design .
Each mask sells for 150 pesos ( $ 6.26 ) , and he accepts orders on his Facebook page .
Sales are off the charts , Hijo del Soberano says , and he 's sewing more than 200 masks a week now .
`` We 're not hurting for money anymore , '' he says .
`` We just need more hands to make more masks . ''

A Mexican 'Lucha Libre' Wrestler Is Sewing Masks To Fight Coronavirus
Enlarge this image toggle caption Jam Media/Getty Images Jam Media/Getty Images
Until last month, Hijo del Soberano was making a good living as a wrestler on Mexico's freestyle wrestling or lucha libre circuit. He would suit up four nights a week in his green-and-gold Lycra leggings and matching character mask for bouts in front of cheering crowds in his city's lucha arena.
Then the coronavirus pandemic hit. The wrestling venue was shuttered.
Hijo del Soberano means "the sovereign's son" — he won't divulge his real name. "As a professional luchador [wrestler], we guard our identities," he tells NPR by phone from his home in the northern Mexican city of Torreón.
He not only lost wages from the canceled matches, but his side gig dried up, too. Hijo del Soberano and his wife sew costumes and the colorful, sometimes intimidating, masks the luchadores wear. Collectors around the world buy the couple's designs, paying as much as $200.
"We make everything for the lucha libre experience here at our workshop," he says.
Hijo del Soberano says about a week or two into Mexico's lockdown, which began officially March 30, he started getting desperate. They couldn't pay bills or buy food. His wife suggested they put their sewing machines to use. Why not make surgical-style masks to guard against the virus?
Hijo del Soberano balked.
"'No, no,' I said, 'I make [full-face] costume masks,'" he says.
But with bills coming due and food running low, he relented.
"Early one morning, I heard this noise coming from the sewing room," says his wife, Marissa Espinoza Rodríguez. "By the time I got up, he had sewn several different types."
Hijo del Soberano says the switch wasn't too hard. "I just altered my skills a bit and made the mask from the nose to the chin," he says.
He kept all the details and flair of his full-face designs, and still pays homage to Mexico's most famous luchadores: There's a silver mask like El Santo's, a blue-and-white covering similar to Blue Demon's — and of course, his own green-and-gold design.
Each mask sells for 150 pesos ($6.26), and he accepts orders on his Facebook page. Sales are off the charts, Hijo del Soberano says, and he's sewing more than 200 masks a week now.
"We're not hurting for money anymore," he says. "We just need more hands to make more masks."


npr--2020-05-01--How Reliable Are COVID-19 Tests? Depends Which One You Mean

How Reliable Are COVID-19 Tests ?
Depends Which One You Mean Testing for coronavirus has been very much in the news .
The first and most urgent focus is on increasing access to tests to diagnose people with current infections .
But now other tests are appearing as well .
Antibody tests , which can identify people with signs of past infection are starting to be available .
And a third type of test is on the way .
Here 's a quick guide to sorting out the pluses and minuses of each of each type of test .
What @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to diagnose people who are currently sick with Covid-19 .
This is the one we 've been hearing so much about .
How it works : This test uses a sample of mucus typically taken from a person 's nose or throat .
The test may also work on saliva – that 's under investigation .
It looks for the genetic material of the coronavirus .
The test uses a technology called PCR ( polymerase chain reaction ) , which greatly amplifies the viral genetic material if it is present .
That material @ @ @ @ @ @ @ infected .
How accurate is it : Generally speaking these are the most reliable tests .
However , a few days may pass before the virus starts replicating in the throat and nose , so the test wo n't identify someone who has recently been infected .
And , swabs can sometimes fail to pick up signs of active infection .
How quick is it : These samples are generally sent to centralized labs for analysis , so it can take several days to get results back .
Wait times were longer earlier @ @ @ @ @ @ @ backlog .
There are also two rapid PCR tests , which can be run on specialized equipment already widely distributed throughout the U.S .
The speediest one , by Abbot Laboratories , can provide a result in 13 minutes , but one study suggests this test can miss more than 10 % of cases .
What it does : Antibody tests identify people who have previously been infected with the coronavirus .
They do not show whether a person is currently infected .
This is primarily a good way to track the spread @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it works : This is a blood test .
It looks for antibodies to the coronavirus .
Your body produces antibodies in response to an infectious agent such as a virus .
These antibodies generally arise after 4 days to more than a week after infection , so they are not used to diagnose current disease .
How accurate is it : There are more than 120 antibody tests on the market .
The Food and Drug Administration has allowed them to be marketed without FDA authorization , and quality is a great @ @ @ @ @ @ @ submitted to extra FDA approval .
Other tests are being validated by individual medical labs or university researchers .
In general , these tests are n't reliable enough for individuals to act based on the results .
And researchers say , even if you were certain you had antibodies to the coronavirus , it 's still unknown if that protects you from getting sick again .
Still these tests can provide good information about rates of infection in a community , where errors in an individual result have less impact .
How quick @ @ @ @ @ @ @ results in a few minutes , based on a drop of blood taken from the finger .
Some research labs use a more sophisticated antibody test , called an Elisa ( Enzyme-linked immunoassay ) which are more accurate but are not as widely available .
What it does : This test identifies people who are currently infected with the coronavirus .
It may be used as a quick test to detect active infections .
Initially it will not be used to diagnose disease but it may be used to screen people to identify @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
How it works : Antigen tests can identify virus in nose and throat secretions .
It does this by looking for proteins on the surface of the virus ( as opposed to the diagnostic test , which looks for genetic material which is carried inside the virus ) .
This is the same technology used in your doctor 's office for rapid strep testing .
How accurate is it : These tests are not yet on the market so there is currently no information about their accuracy .
Researchers do not expect @ @ @ @ @ @ @ PCR diagnostic test , but it is possible they could be used to screen patients for infection .
Dr. Jordan Laser , a lab director at Northwell Health , notes antigen testing is used for rapid strep tests , which are reliable , and rapid flu tests , which are not .
How quick is it : These tests should provide results in just a few minutes .
As a result , they could be used to screen people in hospitals , certain workplaces , or in other instances where it 's important @ @ @ @ @ @ @ currently at risk of spreading the disease .
But unless these tests are proven to be highly accurate , physicians would still need to follow up a positive result with a PCR test to make a medical diagnosis .
You can contact NPR Science Correspondent Richard Harris at rharris @ npr.org .

How Reliable Are COVID-19 Tests? Depends Which One You Mean
Enlarge this image toggle caption Michael Nagle/Xinhua News Agency/Getty Images Michael Nagle/Xinhua News Agency/Getty Images
Updated May 9 to reflect Food and Drug Administration clearance of the first antigen test.
Testing for the coronavirus has been very much in the news. The first and most urgent focus is on increasing access to tests to diagnose people with current infections. But now other tests are appearing as well. Antibody tests, which can identify people with signs of past infection, are starting to be available. And a third type of test is on the way.
Here's a quick guide to sorting out the pluses and minuses to each type of test.
Diagnostic or PCR test
What it does: Doctors use this test to diagnose people who are currently sick with COVID-19. This is the one we've been hearing so much about.
How it works: This test uses a sample of mucus typically taken from a person's nose or throat. The test may also work on saliva — that's under investigation. It looks for the genetic material of the coronavirus. The test uses a technology called PCR (polymerase chain reaction), which greatly amplifies the viral genetic material if it is present. That material is detectable when a person is actively infected.
How accurate is it: Generally speaking, these are the most reliable tests. However, a few days may pass before the virus starts replicating in the throat and nose, so the test won't identify someone who has recently been infected. And swabs can sometimes fail to pick up signs of active infection.
How quick is it: These samples are generally sent to centralized labs for analysis, so it can take several days to get results back. Wait times were longer earlier in the pandemic because of a testing backlog. There are also two rapid PCR tests, which can be run on specialized equipment already widely distributed throughout the U.S. The speediest one, by Abbott Laboratories, can provide a result in 13 minutes, but one study suggests this test can miss more than 10% of cases.
Antibody test
What it does: Antibody tests identify people who have previously been infected with the coronavirus. They do not show whether a person is currently infected. This is primarily a good way to track the spread of the coronavirus through a population.
How it works: This is a blood test. It looks for antibodies to the coronavirus. Your body produces antibodies in response to an infectious agent such as a virus. These antibodies generally arise after four days to more than a week after infection, so they are not used to diagnose current disease.
How accurate is it: There are more than 120 antibody tests on the market. The Food and Drug Administration has allowed them to be marketed without FDA authorization, and quality is a great concern. A few tests have voluntarily submitted to extra FDA approval. Other tests are being validated by individual medical labs or university researchers.
In general, these tests aren't reliable enough for individuals to act based on the results. And researchers say, even if you were certain you had antibodies to the coronavirus, it's still unknown if that protects you from getting sick again. Still, these tests can provide good information about rates of infection in a community, where errors in an individual result have less impact.
How quick is it: These tests generally produce results in a few minutes, based on a drop of blood taken from the finger. Some research labs use a more sophisticated antibody test, called an Elisa (Enzyme-linked immunoassay) that are more accurate but are not as widely available.
Antigen test
What it does: This test identifies people who are currently infected with the coronavirus. It may be used as a quick test to detect active infections. Initially it will not be used to diagnose disease, but it may be used to screen people to identify those who need a more definitive test.
How it works: Antigen tests can identify virus in nose and throat secretions. It does this by looking for proteins from the virus (as opposed to the diagnostic test, which looks for genetic material). This is the same technology used in your doctor's office for rapid strep testing.
How accurate is it: The first of these tests gained FDA clearance on May 8. The company, Quidel Corp., says it will use the first 40,000 tests to get a better idea about the accuracy of its test. Researchers do not expect it to be as accurate as the PCR diagnostic test, but it is possible the antigen tests could be used to screen patients for infection. Dr. Jordan Laser, a lab director at Northwell Health, notes antigen testing is used for rapid strep tests, which are reliable, and rapid flu tests, which are not.
How quick is it: These tests should provide results in just a few minutes. As a result, they could be used to screen people in hospitals, certain workplaces, or in other instances where it's important to find out quickly whether someone is currently at risk of spreading the disease. But unless these tests are proven to be highly accurate, physicians would still need to follow up a positive result with a PCR test to make a medical diagnosis.
You can contact NPR science correspondent Richard Harris at rharris@npr.org.


npr--2020-05-01--A Family Mourns The Husband And Father Who Died Alone, 3,000 Miles Away

A Family Mourns The Husband And Father Who Died Alone , 3,000 Miles Away Guillermo Frestan lived in a different country the eight years of his relationship with the love of his life , Ana Maria Castro Ortez .
Frestan resided in the Bronx and Castro Ortez in Jinotepe , a small city in southwest Nicaragua , where she was raising their three daughters .
He was 51 ; she 's 30 .
They had dreamed of reuniting the family in the Bronx , perhaps as early as this December .
`` It was very difficult to do , he @ @ @ @ @ @ @ wanted to be together .
But he came here , and we visited him , '' Castro Ortez said in a phone interview in Spanish .
`` We were planning .
He was going to retire next year . ''
Frestan , known as `` Willy , '' immigrated to the Bronx from Nicaragua in his 20s after fighting for the Sandinistas .
He became a U.S. citizen and was a husky , kindhearted union foreman with Local 731 .
He worked mostly construction and maintenance jobs on the city 's bridges , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ anniversary , the union said .
Ricardo Nuñez , a best friend and co-worker since the 1990s , said Frestan would regale him with harrowing tales of his time in the war .
`` He used to eat off the land , go weeks without eating regular food , '' Nuñez said .
`` That army mentality , you know what I mean ?
He would put on a show — but he was a big teddy bear . ''
There was another thing Frestan always talked about , Nuñez said : Castro @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 's the love of his life .
Her and his daughters .
That was Willy 's life , '' he said .
`` Nothing else mattered to him . ''
Frestan met Castro Ortez in 2012 on one of his visits back to his home country .
She said they fell in love quickly .
She even took in his eldest daughter with another woman as her own ; the couple had two more daughters together and were married in 2016 .
They were working on immigration paperwork to be able to move @ @ @ @ @ @ @ later this year .
But those dreams were cut short .
On March 28 , Frestan died alone in his apartment — about four weeks after the first coronavirus case was confirmed in New York City , two weeks after the first death , and about a week after Gov .
Andrew Cuomo put the state on pause .
He was one of more than 1,400 New Yorkers who had died at home over the course of the outbreak by April 24 .
At least 81 New Yorkers have died since early March @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lived , according to Fire Department data obtained by WNYC/Gothamist — up from 18 in the same six-week period last year .
It 's the fourth-highest number of at-home deaths in the city .
Most of these people were never tested for the coronavirus , and were not included in the official count until Gothamist/WNYC reported on them .
Now the city is tallying probable cases of COVID-19 , along with cases confirmed by a laboratory .
The total death toll from the virus was up to 15,411 people as of April 24 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ relied on video chats to make their long-distance marriage work .
Frestan called her on the train and the bus , when he was waiting for his colleagues to show up to the job site and then during his breaks .
When Frestan got sick , they were video-chatting , too .
On March 23 , just as COVID-19 cases were starting to spike in the city , Frestan showed up for work at the George Washington Bridge with a dry cough .
His supervisor sent him home .
Castro Ortez said she @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the city , and she worried about his travels on public transit .
She suggested he go see a doctor , but Frestan shrugged it off .
He was in good health except for his asthma .
He had health insurance but rarely used it. ''
'No , ' he told me , ' I do n't think so , ' `` Castro Ortez recalled , and he added , `` ' I do n't want to go out to expose others . '
`` So Castro Ortez tried to care for him @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Frestan 's fever was rising .
She encouraged him to drink tea , bathe , take naps and eat whatever he could .
But he looked pale and was sweating , and he had uncontrollable coughing fits .
One morning while they were on a video call , she watched him get up to go to the bathroom , then collapse on the floor .
`` I said , 'Love , what just happened ? '
And he said , ' I just passed out , ' `` she said .
`` @ @ @ @ @ @ @ get up .
He just waved at me to say he was OK. '' She told him to lie down and rest .
Another day went by , and Frestan told her he felt better , but Castro Ortez wanted him to stay hydrated and eat something .
So he tried to eat an apple .
`` It took him an hour to eat it because his throat hurt , '' she said .
His friend Nuñez said he talked to Frestan during this period , and Frestan never mentioned he was sick @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , I would have taken him to the doctor , to the hospital myself , '' he said .
Castro Ortez wanted to call some of his friends to go check on him , but he kept reassuring her he 'd be fine .
By then it was Friday night , three days after Frestan went home from work .
`` I told him , 'Good night , my love .
Rest , so you feel better in the morning , ' without knowing what was going to happen , '' she said @ @ @ @ @ @ @ They left the video call running that night , but at some point the call went out .
As soon as Castro Ortez woke up , she tried calling .
But Frestan did n't answer .
She said she called every half-hour throughout the morning .
`` I could n't be calm , '' she said .
`` I got anxious , I was crying .
He was n't answering . ''
At noon , she got in touch with Frestan 's oldest son from an earlier relationship , to see if he @ @ @ @ @ @ @ knocked but could n't get in , and the police had to break down the door .
`` They found him in his bed , already gone , '' she said .
`` The day they gave the news , I thought that it was a joke , that it was a lie . ''
When reality set in , all she wanted to do was be there , travel to New York City right away .
But she could n't .
With the virus spreading around the globe , travel was n't @ @ @ @ @ @ @ goes by that I do n't want to be there , '' she said .
`` Not to see him , how they found him , to not know what was going on , not to have news of him — it 's been days of anxiety , powerlessness and pain . ''
Castro Ortez is Catholic .
She 's used to mourning loved ones with two days of prayer beside the body and burial on the third day .
Family members wanted to bring Frestan 's body back to Nicaragua , but @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fear of spreading the virus .
The New York State Funeral Directors Association confirmed that many countries wo n't accept human remains without a letter verifying that the person is not infectious , and those letters are hard to come by .
Some airlines have stopped shipping human remains .
Nearly a month later , Castro Ortez was still waiting for her husband 's ashes to arrive back home .
This story was originally published in The Gothamist .

A Family Mourns The Husband And Father Who Died Alone, 3,000 Miles Away
Enlarge this image toggle caption Courtesy of Ana Maria Castro Ortez Courtesy of Ana Maria Castro Ortez
Guillermo Frestan lived in a different country the eight years of his relationship with the love of his life, Ana Maria Castro Ortez. Frestan resided in the Bronx and Castro Ortez in Jinotepe, a small city in southwest Nicaragua, where she was raising their three daughters.
He was 51; she's 30. They had dreamed of reuniting the family in the Bronx, perhaps as early as this December.
"It was very difficult to do, he was so far away. We always wanted to be together. But he came here, and we visited him," Castro Ortez said in a phone interview in Spanish. "We were planning. He was going to retire next year."
Frestan, known as "Willy," immigrated to the Bronx from Nicaragua in his 20s after fighting for the Sandinistas. He became a U.S. citizen and was a husky, kindhearted union foreman with Local 731. He worked mostly construction and maintenance jobs on the city's bridges, and had just passed his 25th work anniversary, the union said.
Ricardo Nuñez, a best friend and co-worker since the 1990s, said Frestan would regale him with harrowing tales of his time in the war.
"He used to eat off the land, go weeks without eating regular food," Nuñez said. "That army mentality, you know what I mean? He would put on a show — but he was a big teddy bear."
There was another thing Frestan always talked about, Nuñez said: Castro Ortez and the girls.
Obituaries Remembering A Grandfather And A Great Uncle Who Both Died Of COVID-19 A Week Apart Remembering A Grandfather And A Great Uncle Who Both Died Of COVID-19 A Week Apart Listen · 3:49 3:49
"That's the love of his life. Her and his daughters. That was Willy's life," he said. "Nothing else mattered to him."
Frestan met Castro Ortez in 2012 on one of his visits back to his home country. She said they fell in love quickly. She even took in his eldest daughter with another woman as her own; the couple had two more daughters together and were married in 2016.
They were working on immigration paperwork to be able to move into Frestan's apartment on Boston Road later this year. But those dreams were cut short.
On March 28, Frestan died alone in his apartment — about four weeks after the first coronavirus case was confirmed in New York City, two weeks after the first death, and about a week after Gov. Andrew Cuomo put the state on pause. He was one of more than 1,400 New Yorkers who had died at home over the course of the outbreak by April 24.
At least 81 New Yorkers have died since early March in the Bronx ZIP code where Frestan lived, according to Fire Department data obtained by WNYC/Gothamist — up from 18 in the same six-week period last year. It's the fourth-highest number of at-home deaths in the city.
Most of these people were never tested for the coronavirus, and were not included in the official count until Gothamist/WNYC reported on them. Now the city is tallying probable cases of COVID-19, along with cases confirmed by a laboratory.
The death toll from the virus was more than 18,000 in New York City as of May 1, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University.
Castro Ortez said she and Frestan relied on video chats to make their long-distance marriage work. Frestan called her on the train and the bus, when he was waiting for his colleagues to show up to the job site and then during his breaks.
"We practically lived on video calls," Castro Ortez recalled.
When Frestan got sick, they were video-chatting, too. On March 23, just as COVID-19 cases were starting to spike in the city, Frestan showed up for work at the George Washington Bridge with a dry cough. His supervisor sent him home.
Castro Ortez said she had heard about the virus spreading around the city, and she worried about his travels on public transit. She suggested he go see a doctor, but Frestan shrugged it off. He was in good health except for his asthma. He had health insurance but rarely used it.
" 'No,' he told me, 'I don't think so,' " Castro Ortez recalled, and he added, " 'I don't want to go out to expose others.' "
So Castro Ortez tried to care for him by cellphone video from 3,000 miles away. Frestan's fever was rising. She encouraged him to drink tea, bathe, take naps and eat whatever he could. But he looked pale and was sweating, and he had uncontrollable coughing fits. One morning while they were on a video call, she watched him get up to go to the bathroom, then collapse on the floor.
"I said, 'Love, what just happened?' And he said, 'I just passed out,' " she said. "It took him about 15 minutes to get up. He just waved at me to say he was OK."
She told him to lie down and rest. Another day went by, and Frestan told her he felt better, but Castro Ortez wanted him to stay hydrated and eat something. So he tried to eat an apple.
"It took him an hour to eat it because his throat hurt," she said.
His friend Nuñez said he talked to Frestan during this period, and Frestan never mentioned he was sick.
"If I would have known, I would have taken him to the doctor, to the hospital myself," he said.
Castro Ortez wanted to call some of his friends to go check on him, but he kept reassuring her he'd be fine. By then it was Friday night, three days after Frestan went home from work.
"I told him, 'Good night, my love. Rest, so you feel better in the morning,' without knowing what was going to happen," she said. "And we slept."
They left the video call running that night, but at some point the call went out. As soon as Castro Ortez woke up, she tried calling. But Frestan didn't answer. She said she called every half-hour throughout the morning.
"I couldn't be calm," she said. "I got anxious, I was crying. He wasn't answering."
At noon, she got in touch with Frestan's oldest son from an earlier relationship, to see if he could go check on him. He knocked but couldn't get in, and the police had to break down the door.
"They found him in his bed, already gone," she said. "The day they gave the news, I thought that it was a joke, that it was a lie."
When reality set in, all she wanted to do was be there, travel to New York City right away. But she couldn't. With the virus spreading around the globe, travel wasn't an option.
"Not a day goes by that I don't want to be there," she said. "Not to see him, how they found him, to not know what was going on, not to have news of him — it's been days of anxiety, powerlessness and pain."
Castro Ortez is Catholic. She's used to mourning loved ones with two days of prayer beside the body and burial on the third day. Family members wanted to bring Frestan's body back to Nicaragua, but they were told they couldn't for fear of spreading the virus.
The New York State Funeral Directors Association confirmed that many countries won't accept human remains without a letter verifying that the person is not infectious, and those letters are hard to come by. Some airlines have stopped shipping human remains.
Nearly a month later, Castro Ortez was still waiting for her husband's ashes to arrive back home.
This story was originally published in The Gothamist.


npr--2020-05-01--Opinion: Always The Bridesmaid, Public Health Rarely Spotlighted Until It's Too Late

Opinion : Always The Bridesmaid , Public Health Rarely Spotlighted Until It 's Too Late The U.S. is in the midst of both a public health crisis and a health care crisis .
Yet most people are n't aware these are two distinct things .
And the response for each is going to be crucial .
If you 're not a health professional of some stripe , you might not realize that the nation 's public health system operates , in large part , separately from the system that provides most people 's medical care .
Dr. Joshua Sharfstein , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and Drug Administration and now vice dean at the school of public health at Johns Hopkins in Baltimore , distinguishes the health care system from the public health system as `` the difference between taking care of patients with COVID and preventing people from getting COVID in the first place . ''
In general , the health care system cares for patients individually , while public health is about caring for an entire population .
Public health includes many things a population takes for granted , like clean air , clean water , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to eat , as well as injury prevention , vaccines and other methods of ensuring the control of contagious and environmental diseases .
In fact , it is public health , not advances in medical care , that has accounted for most of the increases in life expectancy during the past two centuries .
Well before the advent of antibiotics and other 20th Century medical interventions , public-health activities around clean water , food safety and safer housing led to enormous gains .
`` It 's pretty invisible '' if the public health @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , who also once served as Maryland 's state health secretary .
`` It 's the dog-that-doesn't-bark agency . ''
But while public health is n't as flashy as a new drug or medical device or surgical procedure , it can simultaneously affect many more lives at once .
`` I 'm sure I saved more lives keeping Georgia 's motorcycle law on the books than all the trauma resuscitations I did , '' said Dr. Arthur Kellermann , a former emergency room physician and public health researcher at Emory University in Atlanta @ @ @ @ @ @ @ mostly operates in the background , it rarely gets the attention — or funding — it deserves , until there 's a crisis .
Public health is `` a victim of its own success , '' said Jonathan Oberlander , a health policy researcher and professor at the University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill .
`` People can enjoy clean water and clean air but do n't always attribute it to public health , '' he said .
`` We pay attention to public health when things go awry .
But we tend to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the normal course of events . ''
Public health as a scientific field was created largely to address the sort of problem the world is facing today .
Sharfstein noted that Baltimore established the nation 's first public health department in 1793 to address a yellow fever epidemic .
But between emergencies , the public health domain is largely ignored .
`` In the U.S. , 97 cents of every health dollar goes to medical care , '' he said .
`` Three cents goes to public health . ''
It was n't @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 's public health infrastructure was a top priority .
In the wake of the Sept. 11 , 2001 , terrorist attacks and the anthrax attacks a month later , Congress devoted significant time , attention and dollars to public health .
Emerging from that flurry of activity from 2001 to 2004 was a bipartisan bill providing more than $ 4 billion to dramatically expand the nascent Strategic National Stockpile , to rebuild and modernize the capacity of state and local public-health departments to deal with public-health emergencies and to further protect the nation @ @ @ @ @ @ @ terrorist attacks .
Also created during that period was Project Bioshield , a federal program to provide incentives to private industry to develop vaccines and countermeasures for biological terror agents , as well as naturally occurring biological threats .
But as the threat of biological terrorism seemed to wane , so did public-health funding from Congress and the states .
After accounting for inflation , funding for the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has decreased over the past decade , according to the Trust for America 's Health , a nonpartisan @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Affordable Care Act established a public-health fund worth $ 15 billion over 10 years — the Prevention and Public Health Fund ― it has been repeatedly raided by both parties in Congress to pay for other , sometimes non-health items .
For example , the fund was cut by more than $ 1 billion in 2018 to help cover the costs of a bipartisan budget bill .
Those choices on public health can come back to haunt us .
Now , as the U.S. mourns the COVID-19 deaths of more than 61,000 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ public-health professionals again have the attention of policymakers .
The question for them is , how best to seize the moment ?
`` The trick is to put in solutions that will work for a long time , '' said Sharfstein .
`` It really matters how you handle a crisis because it might determine how you handle the next 50 or 60 years . ''
Kaiser Health News ( KHN ) is a nonprofit news service covering health issues .
It is an editorially independent program of the Kaiser Family Foundation that @ @ @ @ @ @ @

Opinion: Always The Bridesmaid, Public Health Rarely Spotlighted Until It's Too Late
Enlarge this image toggle caption Brendan Smialowski/AFP via Getty Images Brendan Smialowski/AFP via Getty Images
The U.S. is in the midst of both a public health crisis and a health care crisis. Yet most people aren't aware these are two distinct things. And the response for each is going to be crucial.
If you're not a health professional of some stripe, you might not realize that the nation's public health system operates, in large part, separately from the system that provides most people's medical care.
Dr. Joshua Sharfstein, a former deputy commissioner for the Food and Drug Administration and now vice dean at the school of public health at Johns Hopkins in Baltimore, distinguishes the health care system from the public health system as "the difference between taking care of patients with COVID and preventing people from getting COVID in the first place."
In general, the health care system cares for patients individually, while public health is about caring for an entire population. Public health includes many things a population takes for granted, like clean air, clean water, effective sanitation, food that is safe to eat, as well as injury prevention, vaccines and other methods of ensuring the control of contagious and environmental diseases.
Enlarge this image toggle caption Evan Vucci/AP Evan Vucci/AP
In fact, it is public health, not advances in medical care, that has accounted for most of the increases in life expectancy during the past two centuries. Well before the advent of antibiotics and other 20th Century medical interventions, public-health activities around clean water, food safety and safer housing led to enormous gains.
"It's pretty invisible" if the public health system is working well, said Sharfstein, who also once served as Maryland's state health secretary. "It's the dog-that-doesn't-bark agency."
But while public health isn't as flashy as a new drug or medical device or surgical procedure, it can simultaneously affect many more lives at once.
"I'm sure I saved more lives keeping Georgia's motorcycle law on the books than all the trauma resuscitations I did," said Dr. Arthur Kellermann, a former emergency room physician and public health researcher at Emory University in Atlanta.
Still, because the public-health system mostly operates in the background, it rarely gets the attention — or funding — it deserves, until there's a crisis.
Public health is "a victim of its own success," said Jonathan Oberlander, a health policy researcher and professor at the University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill.
"People can enjoy clean water and clean air but don't always attribute it to public health," he said. "We pay attention to public health when things go awry. But we tend to pay not a lot of attention in the normal course of events."
Public health as a scientific field was created largely to address the sort of problem the world is facing today. Sharfstein noted that Baltimore established the nation's first public health department in 1793 to address a yellow fever epidemic. But between emergencies, the public health domain is largely ignored.
"In the U.S., 97 cents of every health dollar goes to medical care," he said. "Three cents goes to public health."
It wasn't that long ago when rebuilding the nation's public health infrastructure was a top priority. In the wake of the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks and the anthrax attacks a month later, Congress devoted significant time, attention and dollars to public health.
Emerging from that flurry of activity from 2001 to 2004 was a bipartisan bill providing more than $4 billion to dramatically expand the nascent Strategic National Stockpile, to rebuild and modernize the capacity of state and local public-health departments to deal with public-health emergencies and to further protect the nation's supply of drinking water from potential terrorist attacks.
Also created during that period was Project Bioshield, a federal program to provide incentives to private industry to develop vaccines and countermeasures for biological terror agents, as well as naturally occurring biological threats.
But as the threat of biological terrorism seemed to wane, so did public-health funding from Congress and the states. After accounting for inflation, funding for the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has decreased over the past decade, according to the Trust for America's Health, a nonpartisan research and advocacy group.
And while the Affordable Care Act established a public-health fund worth $15 billion over 10 years — the Prevention and Public Health Fund ― it has been repeatedly raided by both parties in Congress to pay for other, sometimes non-health items. For example, the fund was cut by more than $1 billion in 2018 to help cover the costs of a bipartisan budget bill.
Those choices on public health can come back to haunt us. Now, as the U.S. mourns the COVID-19 deaths of more than 61,000 people in less than two months, public-health professionals again have the attention of policymakers. The question for them is, how best to seize the moment?
"The trick is to put in solutions that will work for a long time," said Sharfstein. "It really matters how you handle a crisis because it might determine how you handle the next 50 or 60 years."
The clock is ticking.
Kaiser Health News (KHN) is a nonprofit news service covering health issues. It is an editorially independent program of the Kaiser Family Foundation that is not affiliated with Kaiser Permanente.


npr--2020-05-01--Rent Is Due Today, But Millions Of Americans Won't Be Paying

Rent Is Due Today , But Millions Of Americans Wo n't Be Paying More than 30 million people have applied for unemployment as of April 30 , as a result of the coronavirus pandemic .
Many are falling behind on their rent and are being evicted , despite new rules designed to stop evictions .
Experts say the moratoriums by state and local officials do n't go far enough and are leaving tenants vulnerable .
`` My main concern is that I 'll be evicted , '' says David Perez .
The self-employed father of one sells artisanal wares , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ flea market in Elkridge , Md .
`` What 's going to happen to my family ? ''
Perez has n't had any income since the end of February because the flea market closed , and he says that he and his 14-year-old daughter are living off food donated from his church .
He has already lost his van because he could n't make his monthly payments .
Maryland Gov .
Larry Hogan issued an executive order on March 5 to block evictions , and state courts are not accepting eviction case filings @ @ @ @ @ @ @ health emergency .
The federal government has included some protections for housing in the Coronavirus Aid , Relief , and Economic Security Act , including a six-month moratorium on evictions that became effective March 27 .
Rep. Ilhan Omar , D-Minn. , introduced a bill on April 17 that would cancel rents and mortgage payments until one month after the countrywide emergency declaration is lifted .
On Wednesday , the American Civil Liberties Union sent letters to state officials across the country urging them to commit to preventing mass evictions after the moratoriums @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to ease Perez 's anxiety about the future .
`` How will I get money to pay rent , to survive ? ''
he says in a whisper .
`` I feel very vulnerable . ''
`` Will Governor Hogan cancel rent ? ''
he asks .
`` Will the governor create a fund to help us in time of need ? ''
Perez is n't alone .
Housing activists are enlisting renters who can and ca n't pay rent starting May 1 to sign a pledge with the goal of putting pressure @ @ @ @ @ @ @ slogan is `` Ca n't pay ?
Wo n't pay ! ''
About 48.5 million people rent their home , according to the 2015 American Housing Survey .
And according to an analysis from the Department of Housing and Urban Development , almost half of the country 's rental units are owned by individual investor landlords — `` mom and pop '' landlords — people who depend on the rental income to pay bills , including mortgages and utilities .
People of color are most likely to be renters .
According to the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ University of California , Berkeley , Latinx and black residents make up 18 % and 12 % of the country 's population and they account for 28 % and 18 % , respectively , of the tenant population in the United States .
`` The main crisis right now is paying for rent , '' says Gabriela Roque .
She 's a housing advocate with CASA , an immigrant rights organization working in Maryland , Virginia and Pennsylvania .
Roque says that since the pandemic started , she 's hearing `` horror and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Many are borrowing to pay rent , '' and come June , says Roque , `` they 'll be evicted . ''
`` If you lose your job for two or three months , you might be $ 3,000 in the hole with no way to really make that up , '' says Matt Desmond , a sociologist and lead investigator at the Eviction Lab , a group that studies eviction in the U.S. at Princeton University in cooperation with Columbia Law School .
The Eviction Lab set up the first national database @ @ @ @ @ @ @ state-by-state score card .
Since the COVID-19 pandemic began its sweep across the nation , Desmond and his colleagues have been tracking the eviction moratoriums , utility cutoff bans and other protections enacted to preserve housing during this public health crisis .
`` We 're faced with millions of families who are behind in rent , '' he says .
`` Do renters have to pay back rent or start paying rent once the moratoria lifts ? ''
None of that is clear , and it adds to the anxiety among this population @ @ @ @ @ @ @ going on among housing advocates is whether to push for federal relief to help pay back that rent , Desmond says , or whether they should push for the forgiveness of back rent .
He is n't sure what the best option is , but he 's certain that the status quo is n't enough .
`` The moratoriums are n't strong at all , and the protections vary from state to state , '' Desmond says .
Some states such as Colorado lack a statewide moratorium .
Zach Neumann , an attorney @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the problem in that state is `` a patchwork of federal and local eviction moratoriums , but they do n't cover everyone .
It 's creating a ton of confusion . ''
Before the pandemic , Neumann ran a small social enterprise law firm providing low-income residents with legal representation on day-to-day economic issues — things like evictions and debt .
Late one Sunday night in March , Neumann posted a message on Facebook .
`` If anyone is worried about paying your rent when rent comes due .
Feel free to reach @ @ @ @ @ @ @ went to bed and woke up to hundreds of messages the next morning .
`` I was totally shocked , '' says the 36-year-old lawyer .
`` I just had no idea that it would be such a significant issue or that we would have this volume of clients , '' seeking help .
Neumann and lawyer friends created the COVID-19 Eviction Defense Project to provide pro bono representation to tenants who ca n't pay their rent in Colorado .
The project put together an economic analysis to try to gauge the size @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and estimates that about 500,000 people in Colorado will face eviction risk in the next few months .
`` It all started organically , '' to help those in need , Neumann says , but the current national crisis is sobering .
`` It 's like being like a rec league football player and then being told that you 're playing in the Super Bowl and the Super Bowl is tomorrow . ''
Neumann worries that by the middle to the end of summer , most of the federal support that has been @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , federal relief and other assistance , will no longer be in place .
`` The frightening thing is that even if you have a moratorium in place , when that moratorium is lifted , landlords will immediately be able to begin eviction proceedings against nonpaying tenants , '' and that 's going to happen all over the country , he says .
A homeless crisis was already in place in the U.S. long before the COVID-19 pandemic hit .
Neumann warns that it will get worse : `` We 're looking at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ He adds that even with moratoriums currently in place , `` evictions are happening . ''
Some tenants come to Neumann 's group after being evicted .
`` It 's not unusual , '' he says .
`` People are confused about the kinds of rights they have . ''
`` My landlord called me about 20 times a day from 8 in the morning to 9 at night , '' Bott says .
He asked for permission to get a roommate to help pay the monthly $ 1,595 rent and says his @ @ @ @ @ @ @ him to move out .
Bott and his wife co-signed the lease of their duplex in Longmont , Colo .
The problem is that his wife and their two young kids are in the Philippines .
The kids are U.S. citizens , but his wife is n't .
The family got caught up in the worldwide coronavirus lockdown , and they have n't been able to finalize his wife 's immigration documents .
He says his landlord accused him of misrepresenting himself on the lease .
Bott is a software engineer , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Baseball on the Ballpark app and other apps .
When the pandemic hit , he moved his office home , under the shelter-in-place orders .
He says his landlord reminded him that working from home is a violation of his lease , which does n't allow home-based businesses .
Then Bott lost his job , and , he says , that 's when the harassment from his landlord felt relentless .
`` What hurts the most is that she 's taking advantage of a bad situation , '' he says .
When Bott @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rent , he says his landlord suggested he just sleep in his car .
He says what 's most shocking to him is that he thought renting from a `` mom and pop landlord '' would give him more protection , and that has n't been the case .
Bott had to move out but says he feels lucky to have found a room to rent through May .
`` I 'm going to be homeless after that , '' he says .
He has applied for unemployment benefits but worries about the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ want to rent to an unemployed man ? ''
he asks .
He reached out to Neumann last week after being evicted .
`` I hope I get a day in court and compensation for what I lost in this forced move , '' Bott says , with frustration in his voice .
`` We 've got to stop these landlords from doing this illegal stuff . ''
According to the Eviction Lab , local and/or statewide moratoriums expire on May 1 in five states : Colorado , Hawaii , Kansas , South @ @ @ @

Rent Is Due Today, But Millions Of Americans Won't Be Paying
Enlarge this image toggle caption Damian Dovarganes/AP Damian Dovarganes/AP
More than 30 million people have applied for unemployment as of April 30, as a result of the coronavirus pandemic. Many are falling behind on their rent and are being evicted, despite new rules designed to stop evictions. Experts say the moratoriums by state and local officials don't go far enough and are leaving tenants vulnerable.
"My main concern is that I'll be evicted," says David Perez. The self-employed father of one sells artisanal wares, like wallets and sandals, at a flea market in Elkridge, Md. "What's going to happen to my family?"
National Activists Refuse To Pay Rent As New York Struggles With The Coronavirus Outbreak Activists Refuse To Pay Rent As New York Struggles With The Coronavirus Outbreak Listen · 3:23 3:23
Perez hasn't had any income since the end of February because the flea market closed, and he says that he and his 14-year-old daughter are living off food donated from his church. He has already lost his van because he couldn't make his monthly payments.
Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan issued an executive order on March 5 to block evictions, and state courts are not accepting eviction case filings until after the end of the public health emergency.
The federal government has included some protections for housing in the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act, including a six-month moratorium on evictions that became effective March 27.
Rep. Ilhan Omar, D-Minn., introduced a bill on April 17 that would cancel rents and mortgage payments until one month after the countrywide emergency declaration is lifted.
On Wednesday, the American Civil Liberties Union sent letters to state officials across the country urging them to commit to preventing mass evictions after the moratoriums end.
But these provisions do little to ease Perez's anxiety about the future.
"How will I get money to pay rent, to survive?" he says in a whisper. "I feel very vulnerable."
"Will Governor Hogan cancel rent?" he asks. "Will the governor create a fund to help us in time of need?"
Perez isn't alone. Housing activists are enlisting renters who can and can't pay rent starting May 1 to sign a pledge with the goal of putting pressure on landlords and policymakers. The campaign slogan is "Can't pay? Won't pay!"
About 48.5 million people rent their home, according to the 2015 American Housing Survey. And according to an analysis from the Department of Housing and Urban Development, almost half of the country's rental units are owned by individual investor landlords — "mom and pop" landlords — people who depend on the rental income to pay bills, including mortgages and utilities.
People of color are most likely to be renters. According to the Terner Center for Housing Innovation at the University of California, Berkeley, Latinx and black residents make up 18% and 12% of the country's population and they account for 28% and 18%, respectively, of the tenant population in the United States.
"The main crisis right now is paying for rent," says Gabriela Roque. She's a housing advocate with CASA, an immigrant rights organization working in Maryland, Virginia and Pennsylvania. Roque says that since the pandemic started, she's hearing "horror and heartbreaking stories" from renters. "Many are borrowing to pay rent," and come June, says Roque, "they'll be evicted."
"If you lose your job for two or three months, you might be $3,000 in the hole with no way to really make that up," says Matt Desmond, a sociologist and lead investigator at the Eviction Lab, a group that studies eviction in the U.S. at Princeton University in cooperation with Columbia Law School.
The Eviction Lab set up the first national database for eviction data, which includes a state-by-state score card. Since the COVID-19 pandemic began its sweep across the nation, Desmond and his colleagues have been tracking the eviction moratoriums, utility cutoff bans and other protections enacted to preserve housing during this public health crisis.
"We're faced with millions of families who are behind in rent," he says. "Do renters have to pay back rent or start paying rent once the moratoria lifts?" None of that is clear, and it adds to the anxiety among this population, Desmond says.
An active debate going on among housing advocates is whether to push for federal relief to help pay back that rent, Desmond says, or whether they should push for the forgiveness of back rent. He isn't sure what the best option is, but he's certain that the status quo isn't enough.
"The moratoriums aren't strong at all, and the protections vary from state to state," Desmond says.
Some states such as Colorado lack a statewide moratorium.
Zach Neumann, an attorney who represents tenants in Colorado, says the problem in that state is "a patchwork of federal and local eviction moratoriums, but they don't cover everyone. It's creating a ton of confusion."
Before the pandemic, Neumann ran a small social enterprise law firm providing low-income residents with legal representation on day-to-day economic issues — things like evictions and debt.
Late one Sunday night in March, Neumann posted a message on Facebook.
"If anyone is worried about paying your rent when rent comes due. Feel free to reach out," he wrote.
He went to bed and woke up to hundreds of messages the next morning.
"I was totally shocked," says the 36-year-old lawyer. "I just had no idea that it would be such a significant issue or that we would have this volume of clients," seeking help.
Neumann and lawyer friends created the COVID-19 Eviction Defense Project to provide pro bono representation to tenants who can't pay their rent in Colorado. The project put together an economic analysis to try to gauge the size of the eviction risk in the state and estimates that about 500,000 people in Colorado will face eviction risk in the next few months.
"It all started organically," to help those in need, Neumann says, but the current national crisis is sobering. "It's like being like a rec league football player and then being told that you're playing in the Super Bowl and the Super Bowl is tomorrow."
Neumann worries that by the middle to the end of summer, most of the federal support that has been enacted, such as expanded unemployment insurance, federal relief and other assistance, will no longer be in place.
"The frightening thing is that even if you have a moratorium in place, when that moratorium is lifted, landlords will immediately be able to begin eviction proceedings against nonpaying tenants," and that's going to happen all over the country, he says.
A homeless crisis was already in place in the U.S. long before the COVID-19 pandemic hit. Neumann warns that it will get worse: "We're looking at a tidal wave of evictions." He adds that even with moratoriums currently in place, "evictions are happening."
Some tenants come to Neumann's group after being evicted.
National Officials Across The U.S. Scramble To Protect Homeless Population From Coronavirus Officials Across The U.S. Scramble To Protect Homeless Population From Coronavirus Listen · 3:50 3:50
"It's not unusual," he says. "People are confused about the kinds of rights they have."
People like Carlos Bott.
"My landlord called me about 20 times a day from 8 in the morning to 9 at night," Bott says.
He asked for permission to get a roommate to help pay the monthly $1,595 rent and says his landlord got very angry and started pressuring him to move out.
Bott and his wife co-signed the lease of their duplex in Longmont, Colo. The problem is that his wife and their two young kids are in the Philippines. The kids are U.S. citizens, but his wife isn't. The family got caught up in the worldwide coronavirus lockdown, and they haven't been able to finalize his wife's immigration documents. He says his landlord accused him of misrepresenting himself on the lease.
Bott is a software engineer, and until recently he worked with Major League Baseball on the Ballpark app and other apps. When the pandemic hit, he moved his office home, under the shelter-in-place orders. He says his landlord reminded him that working from home is a violation of his lease, which doesn't allow home-based businesses.
Then Bott lost his job, and, he says, that's when the harassment from his landlord felt relentless.
"What hurts the most is that she's taking advantage of a bad situation," he says.
When Bott expressed concern about finding another place to rent, he says his landlord suggested he just sleep in his car. He says what's most shocking to him is that he thought renting from a "mom and pop landlord" would give him more protection, and that hasn't been the case. Bott had to move out but says he feels lucky to have found a room to rent through May.
"I'm going to be homeless after that," he says.
He has applied for unemployment benefits but worries about the future.
"Who's going to want to rent to an unemployed man?" he asks.
He reached out to Neumann last week after being evicted.
"I hope I get a day in court and compensation for what I lost in this forced move," Bott says, with frustration in his voice. "We've got to stop these landlords from doing this illegal stuff."
According to the Eviction Lab, local and/or statewide moratoriums expire on May 1 in five states: Colorado, Hawaii, Kansas, South Carolina and Texas.


npr--2020-05-01--U.S. Nets Trove Of Drugs, But 'Enhanced' Operations Haven't Budged Maduro Or COVID

U.S. Nets Trove Of Drugs , But 'Enhanced ' Operations Have n't Budged Maduro Or COVID American crews have seized haul after haul of drugs since the White House announced `` enhanced '' operations one month ago — but two broad goals of that strategy are so far unmet .
First , Venezuelan strongman Nicolas Maduro remains in power even after the new counter-narcotics gambit and other attempts by Washington to pressure what many nations consider his illegitimate regime .
Maduro and a coterie of his lieutenants even were charged by the Justice Department in connection with drug-trafficking in indictments @ @ @ @ @ @ @ evident effect on Caracas .
In fact , this week , Maduro appointed one of those indicted aides , Tareck El Aissami , as oil minister amid energy shortages associated with other international pressure tactics , including sanctions .
Undeterred , Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said Wednesday that the Trump administration does n't intend to take its foot off the accelerator .
`` The multilateral effort to restore democracy is continuing to build momentum , '' he said .
`` I 've asked my team to update our plans to reopen the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are ready to go .
As soon as Maduro steps aside , I am confident that we will raise that flag again in Caracas . ''
The second goal out of reach is easing the coronavirus pandemic via the increased drug interdiction ; President Trump said on April 1 that the strategy was n't being launched to curb the spread of the virus but that it would nonetheless contribute .
Invoking the wall on the Mexican border and the need for controlling immigration , Trump suggested that increased operations at sea also would @ @ @ @ @ @ @ come into the country .
`` We have the best people at sea anywhere in the world , so we 'll have a tremendous impact on drugs , '' Trump said .
`` But one of the other things : We 'll also have an impact , we think , on the virus . ''
There 's been no indication that American or international crews are stopping large numbers of infected people trying to sail to the United States from South America .
Venezuelan Foreign Minister Jorge Arreaza this week mocked what he @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pin blame on Caracas .
`` That the pandemic in the United States has exceeded one million cases , with more than 60,000 painful deaths and that its economy suffers the consequences , is the sole responsibility of your government , '' he wrote in Spanish on Twitter .
`` Stop using Venezuela to hide your guilt and failure . ''
Southern Command , the military headquarters that oversees the international effort to stanch shipments of contraband into the United States , has announced a number of interdictions and seizures .
Coast Guard @ @ @ @ @ @ @ aircraft and other nations ' authorities work together .
`` As for our enhanced counter-narcotics operations , the deployed capabilities are focused on monitoring for and detecting suspected illicit trafficking activities over international waters and airspace where the preponderance of detected activities involve narcotics trafficking , mostly cocaine smuggled out of South America , '' said Southern Command Spokesman Jose Ruiz .
Before and since April 1 , U.S. and allied crews have brought in several seizures including ones valued at around $ 324 million worth of drugs , then $ 29 million @ @ @ @ @ @ @ $ 21 million and so on .
More is expected .
Not everything about the effort has gone exactly to plan — two of the Navy ships allocated for it spent part of that time out of action — but the operations likely will go on .
Defense Secretary Mark Esper said when announcing the deployments that he would n't reveal how long the surge in operations would run .
Adm. Craig Faller , Southern Command 's boss , announced earlier this year that he was planning a stepped-up commitment of ships and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ he called steady cuts over time to personnel and operations .
The White House highlighted that effort .
Drug smugglers ferry cocaine via sea routes in the Eastern Pacific and the Caribbean , as well as in shipments via air and over land .
Joint Interagency Task Force-South , part of Southern Command , knits together intelligence from U.S. and international sources about those shipments and tries to stop them .
Authorities say the work of the task force is the single most productive barrier to the entry of cocaine ; it seized @ @ @ @ @ @ @ `` almost four times the cocaine seized by all domestic and border enforcement efforts combined , '' Faller told Congress earlier this year .
Military officials say this imposes costs on cartels and smugglers .
In the case of Venezuela , it saps cash from Maduro and his cronies , officials say .
But they also acknowledge how much contraband they miss .
U.S. officials say they 're confident they detect most of the vessels or aircraft making smuggling runs toward the United States , but they seldom have are enough units to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 9 % , they believe .
That 's why Faller and the military were eager to deploy more ships south this spring .
`` This drives a sense of urgency with which we must fight together on this national security threat , '' he told reporters on a conference call .
`` These transnational criminal organizations are undermining security in the United States and our partner nations , killing over 70,000 people per year just on the impacts of drugs alone in the United States . ''
This year , the Pentagon made @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a littoral combat ship , a smaller and swifter new type of vessel that has struggled to overcome earlier developmental problems .
They are n't fully resolved ; the littoral combat ship USS Detroit pulled into Key West , Fla. , in late March for what the Navy called `` emergent repairs '' and stayed there for much of April .
And one of the destroyers assigned to the stepped-up effort , the USS Kidd , returned to San Diego this week after an onboard outbreak of COVID-19 sickened a number of crew @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the destroyer USS Pinckney , remain on the counter-drug assignment along with the Coast Guard vessels and other allies that normally take part .
This week , the Coast Guard announced that one of its cutters , the USCG James , joined with a Navy coastal patrol vessel , the USS Tornado , to stop and board a Venezuelan fishing vessel .
Venezuela 's government is n't the only critic of these efforts .
American reform groups long have argued the `` war on drugs '' is a waste of effort and more @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by trying to pair it with foreign policy targeting Maduro .
Kassandra Frederique , managing director of policy advocacy at the Drug Policy Alliance , likened the approach to ones she said already have failed elsewhere .
`` Not only are these actions irresponsible given the current public health crisis we are in , but escalating the international drug war repeats the same misguided military response the U.S. has supported globally , which has harmed and destabilized countries like Colombia , Afghanistan and Mexico — all the while failing to reduce drug supply @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in a statement .

U.S. Nets Trove Of Drugs, But 'Enhanced' Operations Haven't Budged Maduro Or COVID
Enlarge this image toggle caption Petty Officer 3rd Class Erick Parsons/U.S. Navy Petty Officer 3rd Class Erick Parsons/U.S. Navy
American crews have seized haul after haul of drugs since the White House announced "enhanced" operations one month ago — but two broad goals of that strategy are so far unmet.
First, Venezuelan strongman Nicolas Maduro remains in power even after the new counter-narcotics gambit and other attempts by Washington to pressure what many nations consider his illegitimate regime.
Maduro and a coterie of his lieutenants even were charged by the Justice Department in connection with drug-trafficking in indictments unsealed in March, albeit with no evident effect on Caracas.
In fact, this week, Maduro appointed one of those indicted aides, Tareck El Aissami, as oil minister amid energy shortages associated with other international pressure tactics, including sanctions.
Undeterred, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said Wednesday that the Trump administration doesn't intend to take its foot off the accelerator.
"The multilateral effort to restore democracy is continuing to build momentum," he said. "I've asked my team to update our plans to reopen the U.S. embassy in Caracas so that we are ready to go. As soon as Maduro steps aside, I am confident that we will raise that flag again in Caracas."
The second goal out of reach is easing the coronavirus pandemic via the increased drug interdiction; President Trump said on April 1 that the strategy wasn't being launched to curb the spread of the virus but that it would nonetheless contribute.
Invoking the wall on the Mexican border and the need for controlling immigration, Trump suggested that increased operations at sea also would stop significant numbers of virus-carriers attempting to come into the country.
Enlarge this image toggle caption Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images
"We have the best people at sea anywhere in the world, so we'll have a tremendous impact on drugs," Trump said. "But one of the other things: We'll also have an impact, we think, on the virus."
There's been no indication that American or international crews are stopping large numbers of infected people trying to sail to the United States from South America.
Venezuelan Foreign Minister Jorge Arreaza this week mocked what he called the Trump administration's attempt to pin blame on Caracas.
"That the pandemic in the United States has exceeded one million cases, with more than 60,000 painful deaths and that its economy suffers the consequences, is the sole responsibility of your government," he wrote in Spanish on Twitter. "Stop using Venezuela to hide your guilt and failure."
Boom times in the seizure game
Southern Command, the military headquarters that oversees the international effort to stanch shipments of contraband into the United States, has announced a number of interdictions and seizures.
Coast Guard cutters, Navy warships, American patrol aircraft and other nations' authorities work together.
"As for our enhanced counter-narcotics operations, the deployed capabilities are focused on monitoring for and detecting suspected illicit trafficking activities over international waters and airspace where the preponderance of detected activities involve narcotics trafficking, mostly cocaine smuggled out of South America," said Southern Command Spokesman Jose Ruiz.
Before and since April 1, U.S. and allied crews have brought in several seizures including ones valued at around $324 million worth of drugs, then $29 million, then $60 million, then $21 million and so on. More is expected.
Not everything about the effort has gone exactly to plan — two of the Navy ships allocated for it spent part of that time out of action — but the operations likely will go on. Defense Secretary Mark Esper said when announcing the deployments that he wouldn't reveal how long the surge in operations would run.
Enlarge this image toggle caption U.S. Coast Guard/U.S. Coast Guard Pacific Area U.S. Coast Guard/U.S. Coast Guard Pacific Area
Vessels of opportunity
Adm. Craig Faller, Southern Command's boss, announced earlier this year that he was planning a stepped-up commitment of ships and aircraft after the command had endured what he called steady cuts over time to personnel and operations. The White House highlighted that effort.
Drug smugglers ferry cocaine via sea routes in the Eastern Pacific and the Caribbean, as well as in shipments via air and over land.
Joint Interagency Task Force-South, part of Southern Command, knits together intelligence from U.S. and international sources about those shipments and tries to stop them.
Authorities say the work of the task force is the single most productive barrier to the entry of cocaine; it seized around 280 metric tons last year — "almost four times the cocaine seized by all domestic and border enforcement efforts combined," Faller told Congress earlier this year.
Military officials say this imposes costs on cartels and smugglers. In the case of Venezuela, it saps cash from Maduro and his cronies, officials say. But they also acknowledge how much contraband they miss.
U.S. officials say they're confident they detect most of the vessels or aircraft making smuggling runs toward the United States, but they seldom have are enough units to intervene. Authorities can intercept only about 9%, they believe.
That's why Faller and the military were eager to deploy more ships south this spring.
"This drives a sense of urgency with which we must fight together on this national security threat," he told reporters on a conference call. "These transnational criminal organizations are undermining security in the United States and our partner nations, killing over 70,000 people per year just on the impacts of drugs alone in the United States."
This year, the Pentagon made more Navy ships available including destroyers and a littoral combat ship, a smaller and swifter new type of vessel that has struggled to overcome earlier developmental problems.
They aren't fully resolved; the littoral combat ship USS Detroit pulled into Key West, Fla., in late March for what the Navy called "emergent repairs" and stayed there for much of April.
And one of the destroyers assigned to the stepped-up effort, the USS Kidd, returned to San Diego this week after an onboard outbreak of COVID-19 sickened a number of crew members.
Other gray-hulled ships, including the destroyer USS Pinckney, remain on the counter-drug assignment along with the Coast Guard vessels and other allies that normally take part.
This week, the Coast Guard announced that one of its cutters, the USCG James, joined with a Navy coastal patrol vessel, the USS Tornado, to stop and board a Venezuelan fishing vessel.
"War on drugs" criticism endures
Venezuela's government isn't the only critic of these efforts.
American reform groups long have argued the "war on drugs" is a waste of effort and more recently that Trump has compounded that mistake by trying to pair it with foreign policy targeting Maduro.
Kassandra Frederique, managing director of policy advocacy at the Drug Policy Alliance, likened the approach to ones she said already have failed elsewhere.
"Not only are these actions irresponsible given the current public health crisis we are in, but escalating the international drug war repeats the same misguided military response the U.S. has supported globally, which has harmed and destabilized countries like Colombia, Afghanistan and Mexico — all the while failing to reduce drug supply or drug use," Frederique said in a statement.


npr--2020-05-01--Can This President Be Reelected In An Economy This Bad?

Can This President Be Reelected In An Economy This Bad ?
As April began and Americans were being told to fear COVID-19 and stay home , President Trump said there would not need to be a `` massive recession . ''
As recently as Monday he said the economy would have `` a tremendous third quarter . ''
By Wednesday , he was looking forward to `` a fourth quarter that 's going to be fantastic '' and then to `` a tremendous 2021 . ''
The moving time frame for the hoped-for recovery reflected a shifting of the president @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has hit with hurricane force .
The devastating numbers now emerging — including that 30 million have applied for unemployment in the past six weeks — have the White House eager to move from containing the virus to containing its damage to the economy .
The first shuttering of businesses and workplaces in March was enough to drag down economic growth for the whole first quarter by 4.8 % ( as an annualized rate ) , by the administration 's own numbers .
And forecasters at the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office this week @ @ @ @ @ @ @ economy shrink by 30 % or more .
The receding date of arrival for Trump 's self-described `` rocket ship '' recovery is all the more notable given his tendency and talent for putting the best face on things .
And the need for positive thinking could scarcely be greater than it is now .
The president and his team are arguing that the COVID-19 crisis has peaked and will subside as a threat to public health .
But they know the economic fallout from the disease ( and a worldwide oil price @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that may well be the greater threat to the president 's political health .
Scholars and political strategists generally agree there is nothing more important for a president 's re-election prospects than the state of the economy .
Presidents with a robust economy routinely win a new term .
Those without , as a rule , do not .
In an article published in mid-March by the University of Virginia , political scientist Alan Abramowitz said a recession in the second quarter would point to defeat for Trump , or any incumbent president @ @ @ @ @ @ @ proportions . ''
`` The performance of the economy in the second quarter seems to shape opinions of the economy in the fall , '' wrote Abramowitz , who teaches at Emory University in Atlanta .
Abramowitz 's predictive model prominently features second-quarter economic performance among its elements , and it has correlated remarkably well with presidential outcomes since World War II .
We may have forgotten the significance of recessions in part because the last three presidents ( Barack Obama , George W. Bush , Bill Clinton ) all won a second @ @ @ @ @ @ @ latter half of their first .
That allowed each of them to point to improving economic conditions and to do so plausibly and persuasively .
In the most recent example , Obama could point to three years of growth out of the deep recession of 2008-2009 , brought about by the mortgage-and-credit crisis and market collapse of 2008 .
At the time of Obama 's re-election in 2012 , it was often said that no president had been re-elected with unemployment as high as it ( still ) was in that year .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ the sense of upward trajectory , reflected in crucial consumer confidence numbers that fall , buoyed the incumbent .
There were signs this week that Trump is preparing to adopt a similar strategy .
In this formulation , instead of downplaying the negative , the president would be cast as the leader most equipped and best positioned to turn things around .
The next best thing to good times may be a promise of good times ahead with the right hand on the tiller .
But as a campaign theme , this one @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Prosperity is just around the corner '' was a slogan for President Herbert Hoover in 1932 in the depths of the Great Depression , just before he was crushed by Franklin D. Roosevelt .
While Hoover 's predicament may have been uniquely hopeless , other incumbents have had also struggled when re-election campaigns had to coincide with weak or recessionary economies .
Much depends on when a recession begins or when it has ended .
There needs to be time for the recovery to take hold , to move beyond technical measurements to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is especially true in the current economy , 70 % of which is consumer spending .
Feelings of confidence may have been the critical issue for the last U.S. president who was denied a second term , George H.W .
Bush .
A recession in late 1990 and early 1991 had long been over by Election Day , a fact the Bush team kept trying to drive home .
But the downturn was worse and more persistent in some critical swing states , and its hangover ( including relatively high unemployment into the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Bush campaign all year .
In one sense , the first president Bush should have known better .
He had been the Republicans ' running mate in 1980 when Ronald Reagan won 44 states asking people `` are you better off than you were four years ago ? ''
The target of that simple question had been President Jimmy Carter , who was looking at a worsening job picture with historically high interest rates that had been imposed in an effort to curtail historically high inflation .
Carter himself had reached the Oval @ @ @ @ @ @ @ `` misery index '' of unemployment , high interest rates and inflation .
That combination had been too much for the incumbent of that time , Republican Gerald Ford .
A few presidents have survived poor economic conditions that ended in time for them to recover ( Calvin Coolidge in 1924 ) or began too late for the full force to be felt by Election Day ( Harry Truman in 1948 ) .
William McKinley was re-elected in what was at least a weak economy in 1900 .
But this is where historical @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the economic imperative in 1900 or ride the popularity of the American victory in the Spanish-American War ?
Or was it the weakness of his Democratic opponent , William Jennings Bryan ?
Was Coolidge spared in 1924 because the Democrats took weeks to choose a nominee against him ?
Did Truman win in 1948 because the recession had just begun or because people did not blame him for it or because Republican nominee Thomas E. Dewey scarcely campaigned ?
These questions are not only of historical interest .
All predictions regarding the effect @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 's prospects must also consider other factors .
In this case , will the Democrats ' perennial disunity and the lack of a traditional convention sap their voters ' enthusiasm ?
Will the virus be around and playing hob with turnout rates in November ?
Even more worrisome for Trump 's opponents are the travails of Joe Biden 's campaign .
A sexual assault accusation and attacks speculating about the 77-year-old 's health have clouded his campaign since he secured an apparent first-ballot nomination earlier this spring .
In the extraordinarily volatile environment @ @ @ @ @ @ @ nightmare economy may not be as fatal for the incumbent as it would have been in the past .

Can This President Be Reelected In An Economy This Bad?
Enlarge this image toggle caption Alex Brandon/AP Alex Brandon/AP
As April began and Americans were being told to fear COVID-19 and stay home, President Trump said there would not need to be a "massive recession." As recently as Monday, he said the economy would have "a tremendous third quarter." By Wednesday, he was looking forward to "a fourth quarter that's going to be fantastic" and then to "a tremendous 2021."
The moving time frame for the hoped-for recovery reflected a shifting of the president's rhetorical gears now that the recession has hit with hurricane force. The devastating numbers now emerging — including that 30 million have applied for unemployment in the past six weeks — have the White House eager to move from containing the virus to containing its damage to the economy.
The first shuttering of businesses and workplaces in March was enough to drag down economic growth for the whole first quarter by 4.8% (as an annualized rate), by the administration's own numbers. And forecasters at the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office this week said the second quarter could see the economy shrink by 30% or more.
The receding date of arrival for Trump's self-described "rocket ship" recovery is all the more notable given his tendency and talent for putting the best face on things. And the need for positive thinking could scarcely be greater than it is now.
The president and his team are arguing that the COVID-19 crisis has peaked and will subside as a threat to public health. But they know the economic fallout from the disease (and a worldwide oil price collapse) has only begun – and that may well be the greater threat to the president's political health.
Scholars and political strategists generally agree there is nothing more important for a president's reelection prospects than the state of the economy. Presidents with a robust economy routinely win a new term. Those without, as a rule, do not.
In an article published in mid-March by the University of Virginia, political scientist Alan Abramowitz said a recession in the second quarter would point to defeat for Trump, or any incumbent president — possibly a defeat of "landslide proportions."
"The performance of the economy in the second quarter seems to shape opinions of the economy in the fall," wrote Abramowitz, who teaches at Emory University in Atlanta. Abramowitz's predictive model prominently features second-quarter economic performance among its elements, and it has correlated remarkably well with presidential outcomes since World War II.
We may have forgotten the significance of recessions in part because the last three presidents (Barack Obama, George W. Bush, Bill Clinton) all won a second term after avoiding a recession in the latter half of their first. That allowed each of them to point to improving economic conditions and to do so plausibly and persuasively.
In the most recent example, Obama could point to three years of growth out of the deep recession of 2008-2009, brought about by the mortgage-and-credit crisis and market collapse of 2008.
At the time of Obama's reelection in 2012, it was often said that no president had been reelected with unemployment as high as it (still) was in that year. Statistically, that was true, but the sense of upward trajectory, reflected in crucial consumer confidence numbers that fall, buoyed the incumbent.
There were signs this week that Trump is preparing to adopt a similar strategy. In this formulation, instead of downplaying the negative, the president would be cast as the leader most equipped and best positioned to turn things around.
The next best thing to good times may be a promise of good times ahead with the right hand on the tiller. But as a campaign theme, this one's track record is mixed. "Prosperity is just around the corner" was a slogan for President Herbert Hoover in 1932 in the depths of the Great Depression, just before he was crushed by Franklin D. Roosevelt.
While Hoover's predicament may have been uniquely hopeless, other incumbents have struggled when reelection campaigns coincided with weak or recessionary economies.
Much depends on when a recession begins or when it has ended. There needs to be time for the recovery to take hold, to move beyond technical measurements to a general sense of confidence. That is especially true in the current economy, 70% of which is consumer spending.
Feelings of confidence may have been the critical issue for the last U.S. president who was denied a second term, George H.W. Bush. A recession in late 1990 and early 1991 had long been over by Election Day, a fact the Bush team kept trying to drive home. But the downturn was worse and more persistent in some critical swing states, and its hangover (including relatively high unemployment into the second quarter of 1992) haunted the Bush campaign all year.
In one sense, the first president Bush should have known better. He had been the Republicans' running mate in 1980 when Ronald Reagan won 44 states asking people: "Are you better off than you were four years ago?"
The target of that simple question had been President Jimmy Carter, who was looking at a worsening job picture with historically high interest rates that had been imposed in an effort to curtail historically high inflation.
Carter himself had reached the Oval Office four years earlier talking about the "misery index" of unemployment, high interest rates and inflation. That combination had been too much for the incumbent of that time, Republican Gerald Ford.
A few presidents have survived poor economic conditions that ended in time for them to recover (Calvin Coolidge in 1924) or began too late for the full force to be felt by Election Day (Harry Truman in 1948). William McKinley was reelected in what was at least a weak economy in 1900.
But this is where historical arguments can begin. Did McKinley defy the economic imperative in 1900 or ride the popularity of the American victory in the Spanish-American War? Or was it the weakness of his Democratic opponent, William Jennings Bryan?
Was Coolidge spared in 1924 because the Democrats took weeks to choose a nominee against him? Did Truman win in 1948 because the recession had just begun or because people did not blame him for it or because Republican nominee Thomas E. Dewey scarcely campaigned?
These questions are not only of historical interest. All predictions regarding the effect of the COVID-19 economic collapse on Trump's prospects must also consider other factors. In this case, will the Democrats' perennial disunity and the lack of a traditional convention sap their voters' enthusiasm? Will the virus be around and playing hob with turnout rates in November?
Even more worrisome for Trump's opponents are the travails of Joe Biden's campaign. A sexual assault accusation and attacks speculating about the 77-year-old's health have clouded his campaign since he secured an apparent first-ballot nomination earlier this spring.
In the extraordinarily volatile environment of this pandemic-election year, even a nightmare economy may not be as fatal for the incumbent as it would have been in the past.