npr--2020-10-27--U.S. Coronavirus Cases Surpass Summer Peak And Are Climbing Higher Fast

U.S. Coronavirus Cases Surpass Summer Peak And Are Climbing Higher Fast Coronavirus cases are rising precipitously in the U.S. , and have now surpassed the high levels logged in the summer when daily new cases hovered above 65,000 on average for nearly two weeks .
After a dip in new cases in September , the country now is logging an average of nearly 70,000 new cases a day , and health experts worry this surge could last longer and grip more of the country than in the spring or summer .
And the average daily case count has climbed 41 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ according to an NPR analysis .
`` The trend line looks quite vertical , '' says Dr. Jessica Justman , an associate professor of medicine in epidemiology at Columbia University 's Mailman School of Public Health .
`` It looks like this third surge is on track to be higher than the one in late July . ''
On Friday , the U.S. recorded the most new cases in a single day — more than 83,000 , followed by almost as many on Saturday .
While new cases were a bit lower Sunday @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the seven-day rolling average — is clearly rising .
`` It 's a lot of states that have very brisk rises in their cases , '' says Justman .
The number of people being hospitalized for COVID-19 is also climbing in most states .
Nearly 43,000 people are currently hospitalized , two-thirds of what was recorded during the summer peak , and is the highest since Aug. 19 , according to data gathered by the COVID Tracking Project .
The sharp jump in cases has hospitals on edge .
`` We may see @ @ @ @ @ @ @ yet , and that is very troubling , '' says Dr. Bruce Siegel , president of America 's Essential Hospitals , which represents more than 300 safety-net hospitals .
Infections tend to foreshadow hospitalizations by several weeks , as some cases become more severe .
Siegel fears the holiday season will only fan the outbreak as people travel and spend more time inside together : `` We are in the red zone for danger . ''
One brighter note : The U.S. daily death toll from COVID-19 is about 800 on average over @ @ @ @ @ @ @ still lower than what was seen during the spring and summer surges .
Justman says she believes improvements in clinical care will keep the mortality rate lower for patients who are hospitalized than what was seen earlier in the pandemic .
But more tragedy is coming .
`` I think as the case count rises , it 's inevitable that the number of deaths will go up , '' she says .
The Midwest is in the grips of its worst surge since the pandemic began , and case growth there is driving @ @ @ @ @ @ @ more cases per capita than either the Northeast or the South did during their spring and summer surges , according to an analysis by the Covid Tracking Project .
Wisconsin and Illinois each account for more than 30,000 cases in the past week , according to the CDC , outpacing even California — a state with more than twice the population of those two states combined .
North and South Dakota have more cases per capita than anywhere else in the country , followed by Wisconsin and Montana .
But increasingly the outbreak @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Daily infections have shot up 46 % in the West and 49 % in the Northeast over the past two weeks , according to an NPR analysis .
All this adds up to a fall surge that is on track to dwarf the spring .
`` We 're starting off of a higher baseline of transmission , and so this peak is going to go higher than the last one , '' says Dr. Lynn Goldman , dean of the Milken Institute School of Public Health at the George Washington University .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ new daily cases in September — around 35,000 U.S. cases a day — was close to the high point during the spring , when the virus was concentrated in the Northeast and a handful of urban centers .
In the summer , infections were concentrated in the Sunbelt , with states like Texas , Arizona , Florida and California adding the bulk of cases .
For weeks in a row , that surge led to over 65,000 new daily cases nationally on average and then slowly tapered down .
Where U.S. cases are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ leveled off in the summer , says Goldman , `` and I 'm not sure that we can count on that happening quite as early at this point . ''
After plateauing in August , total U.S. cases picked up in early September — a warning of what public health experts predicted would be a third surge during the colder months .
Goldman anticipates the fall and winter increase to be more devastating .
`` We have just more coronavirus out there in more communities , then there 's the change in season @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the response to the pandemic , '' she says .
The change in weather as fall moves along is likely contributing to the uptick in cases , and that will persist throughout the fall and winter , says Art Reingold , professor of epidemiology at the University of California , Berkeley .
`` People are not going to be outside as much as they were in the summer .
And clearly , in many areas , there is a great resistance to masks and social distancing , '' says Reingold .
`` We @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 'll see resurgences even in cities and areas that have been doing a good job in the last couple of months . ''
While testing varies from day to day , the number of tests have grown modestly in the past two months .
The U.S. averaged about 760,000 coronavirus tests each day in September compared with just over a million in October so far .
The spread of the virus across the country 's interior has also run parallel with unprecedented outbreaks in rural America .
The rate of infections per capita @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is now at record levels — close to double what it is in the major metro areas .
In parts of the Midwest and West , hospitals are already scrambling to make room for patients as ICU capacity dwindles in metro areas and in smaller rural communities .
As the pandemic washes over more states , Dr. Bruce Siegel says there will be far less slack in the health care system to move around patients , staff and equipment because every place will be in a similar position .
`` If you have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ we 're not going to have that ability , '' he says .
`` We 'll just have national shortages of everything and there 'll be no ability to backstop here and there — your emergency rooms will be overwhelmed and your ICU will be overwhelmed . ''
At that point , Siegel says hospitals may have no choice but to turn to `` crisis standards of care '' — a system of rationing health care resources that favors those who have a higher chance of survival .
The outlook sounds grim , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ steps people and policymakers can take that even now can help flatten the curve of new infections .
Mask wearing , social distancing , and targeted policies to limit crowds in public places and indoor settings such as bars and restaurants have been shown to be effective .
`` These are simple things .
And they may be inconvenient , but they can have just a world of difference , '' Siegel says .
`` We still have some weeks where we could change this picture , where we can blunt it .
@

U.S. Coronavirus Cases Surpass Summer Peak And Are Climbing Higher Fast
toggle caption Rick Bowmer/AP
Updated Wednesday 10:25 a.m. ET
Coronavirus cases are rising precipitously in the U.S., and have now surpassed the high levels logged in the summer when daily new cases hovered above 65,000 on average for nearly two weeks.
After a dip in new cases in September, the country now is logging an average of nearly 72,000 new cases a day, and health experts worry this surge could last longer and grip more of the country than in the spring or summer. And the average daily case count has climbed 41% over the past two weeks, according to an NPR analysis.
Loading...
"The trend line looks quite vertical," says Dr. Jessica Justman, an associate professor of medicine in epidemiology at Columbia University's Mailman School of Public Health. "It looks like this third surge is on track to be higher than the one in late July."
On Friday, the U.S. recorded the most new cases in a single day — more than 83,000, followed by almost as many on Saturday. While new cases were lower Sunday and Monday, the trend line — the seven-day rolling average — is rising steeply.
"It's a lot of states that have very brisk rises in their cases," says Justman.
The number of people being hospitalized for COVID-19 is also climbing in most states. More than 44,000 people are currently hospitalized, two-thirds of what was recorded during the summer peak, and is the highest since mid-August, according to data gathered by the COVID Tracking Project.
The sharp jump in cases has hospitals on edge.
"We may see a surge like we have not seen yet, and that is very troubling," says Dr. Bruce Siegel, president of America's Essential Hospitals, which represents more than 300 safety-net hospitals.
Infections tend to foreshadow hospitalizations by several weeks, as some cases become more severe.
Siegel fears the holiday season will only fan the outbreak as people travel and spend more time inside together: "We are in the red zone for danger."
One brighter note: The U.S. daily death toll from COVID-19 is about 800 on average over the past seven days, which is still lower than what was seen during the spring and summer surges.
Justman says she believes improvements in clinical care will keep the mortality rate lower for patients who are hospitalized than what was seen earlier in the pandemic. But more tragedy is coming.
"I think as the case count rises, it's inevitable that the number of deaths will go up," she says.
Regional flare-ups from a high baseline
The Midwest is in the grips of its worst surge since the pandemic began, and case growth there is driving up national numbers. It now has more cases per capita than either the Northeast or the South did during their spring and summer surges, according to an analysis by the Covid Tracking Project.
Wisconsin and Illinois each account for around 30,000 cases in the past week, according to the CDC, on par with California — a state with more than twice the population of those two states combined. North and South Dakota have more cases per capita than anywhere else in the country, followed by Wisconsin and Montana.
But increasingly the outbreak is growing in other regions, too.
Daily infections have risen by 41% in the West and 48% in the Northeast over the past 14 days, according to an NPR analysis.
All this adds up to a fall surge that is on track to dwarf the spring.
"We're starting off of a higher baseline of transmission, and so this peak is going to go higher than the last one," says Dr. Lynn Goldman, dean of the Milken Institute School of Public Health at the George Washington University.
In fact, the low point in new daily cases in September — around 35,000 U.S. cases a day — was close to the high point during the spring, when the virus was concentrated in the Northeast and a handful of urban centers.
In the summer, infections were concentrated in the Sunbelt, with states like Texas, Arizona, Florida and California adding the bulk of cases. For weeks in a row, that surge led to over 65,000 new daily cases nationally on average and then slowly tapered down.
Where U.S. cases are today on average is near where they leveled off in the summer, says Goldman, "and I'm not sure that we can count on that happening quite as early at this point."
Cold weather raises risks
After plateauing in August, total U.S. cases picked up in early September — a warning of what public health experts predicted would be a third surge during the colder months.
Goldman anticipates the fall and winter increase to be more devastating.
"We have just more coronavirus out there in more communities, then there's the change in season and people have become more fatigued with the response to the pandemic," she says.
The change in weather as fall moves along is likely contributing to the uptick in cases, and that will persist throughout the fall and winter, says Art Reingold, professor of epidemiology at the University of California, Berkeley.
"People are not going to be outside as much as they were in the summer. And clearly, in many areas, there is a great resistance to masks and social distancing," says Reingold. "We certainly have a substantial risk that we'll see resurgences even in cities and areas that have been doing a good job in the last couple of months."
While testing varies from day to day, the number of tests have grown modestly in the past two months. The U.S. averaged about 760,000 coronavirus tests each day in September compared with just over a million daily in October so far.
Overloaded hospitals
The spread of the virus across the country's interior has also run parallel with unprecedented outbreaks in rural America.
The rate of infections per capita in the country's most rural counties is now at record levels — close to double what it is in the major metro areas.
In parts of the Midwest and West, hospitals are already scrambling to make room for patients as ICU capacity dwindles in metro areas and in smaller rural communities.
As the pandemic washes over more states, Dr. Bruce Siegel says there will be far less slack in the health care system to move around patients, staff and equipment because every place will be in a similar position.
"If you have just an out-of-control, widespread outbreak, we're not going to have that ability," he says. "We'll just have national shortages of everything and there'll be no ability to backstop here and there — your emergency rooms will be overwhelmed and your ICU will be overwhelmed."
At that point, Siegel says hospitals may have no choice but to turn to "crisis standards of care" — a system of rationing health care resources that favors those who have a higher chance of survival.
The outlook sounds grim, but public health experts say there are steps people and policymakers can take that even now can help flatten the curve of new infections. Mask wearing, social distancing, and targeted policies to limit crowds in public places and indoor settings such as bars and restaurants have been shown to be effective.
"These are simple things. And they may be inconvenient, but they can have just a world of difference," Siegel says. "We still have some weeks where we could change this picture, where we can blunt it."


npr--2020-10-28--Coronavirus Maps: How Severe Is Your State's Outbreak?

Coronavirus Maps : How Severe Is Your State 's Outbreak ?
More than 8 million people in the U.S. have had confirmed coronavirus infections and more than 225,000 have died of COVID-19 .
Tens of thousands of new cases are reported daily nationwide .
In the graphics below , explore the trends in your state .
View the data via a heat map ( immediately below ) , curve charts , a table of state-by-state trends over four weeks , or a map of total cases and deaths .
The map above shows the risk of infection in each state @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
These color-coded risk levels were developed by a consortium of researchers and public health experts .
The group advises states in the red category to issue stay-home orders .
Orange states may need to consider stay-home orders , along with increased testing and contact tracing .
Yellow states need to keep up social distancing and mask usage , and both yellow and green states should continue testing and contact tracing .
To compare state outbreaks , the chart above graphs trend lines for average new daily cases and deaths against each state @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of visualization highlights a state 's daily growth or decline relative to the overall size of its outbreak .
When both new and total case and death counts grow quickly , the curves bend upward .
As new cases and deaths slow , the curves level or bend down .
In New York , the curve rose sharply before reaching over 170,000 total cases in April .
Since then , new cases have fallen from about 10,000 per day in mid-April to over 1,000 per day in mid October .
Explore the map @ @ @ @ @ @ @ figures around the country for both new confirmed cases and reported deaths from COVID-19 .
New York was the original epicenter of the pandemic in the U.S. As of mid October , California , Florida and Texas surpass New York for total cases to date , though New York still has the highest death total .
Click here to see a global map of confirmed cases and deaths .
To show trends , the table below shows the change in average new cases per day in each state , week over week for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in shades of red have growing outbreaks ; those in shades of green , are declining .
The graphics on this page pull from data compiled by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering at Johns Hopkins University from several sources , including the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention ; the World Health Organization ; national , state and local government health departments ; 1point3acres ; and local media reports .
The JHU team automates its data uploads and regularly checks them for anomalies .
This may result in occasional data discrepancies @ @ @ @ @ @ @ resolves anomalies and updates its feeds .
State-by-state recovery data are unavailable at this time .
There may be discrepancies between what you see here and what you see on your local health department 's website .
Figures shown do not include cases on cruise ships .
Fluctuations in the numbers may happen as health authorities review old cases and or update their methodologies .
For example , in early June , Michigan health authorities started including probable cases in its totals .
This resulted in a brief spike in the state 's @ @ @ @ @ @ @ able to reconcile the historical data .
On June 25 , New Jersey included 1,854 previously-unreported probable deaths in its totals , resulting in a spike in the state 's daily death numbers .
On Sept. 2 , Massachusetts changed its methodology for counting probable cases , which lowered its overall case and death numbers .
The JHU team maintains a list of such changes .
This story was originally published on March 16 , 2020 .
Elena Renken was a co-author on that version .
Sean McMinn contributed to and Carmel Wroth @ @ @ @

Tracking the coronavirus around the U.S.: See how your state is doing
Loading...
Note: This page was last updated on Feb. 1, 2023. It will no longer be updated. For current data on COVID cases and deaths, demographics, and hospitalizations, consult the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
As of Feb. 1, there have been more than 101 million confirmed coronavirus infections in the U.S. and more than 1 million people have died of COVID-19. In the graphics below, explore the trends in your state.
Loading...
The above charts show average new cases per 100,000 people for each state over the last 12 months.
Note: Actual cases may be substantially higher, since many who test positive with at-home tests don't report their cases.
For additional data about COVID-19 in the U.S, including cases and deaths, demographics, and hospitalizations, consult the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention website.
To show trends, the table below shows the change in average new cases per day in each state, week over week for the last 28 days. States marked in shades of red have growing outbreaks; those in shades of green, are declining.
Loading...
Methodology
The graphics on this page pull from data compiled by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering at Johns Hopkins University from several sources, including the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; the World Health Organization; national, state and local government health departments; 1point3acres; and local media reports.
The JHU team automates its data uploads and regularly checks them for anomalies. This may result in occasional data discrepancies on this page as the JHU team resolves anomalies and updates its feeds. There may be discrepancies between what you see here and what you see on your local health department's website. Figures shown do not include cases on cruise ships.
Fluctuations in the numbers may happen as health authorities review old cases, process testing backlogs or update their methodologies. The JHU team maintains a list of such changes.
This story was originally published on March 16, 2020. Elena Renken was a co-author on that version. Sean McMinn and Audrey Carlsen contributed to this story. Carmel Wroth edited this story.


npr--2020-10-28--Stuck-At-Home Moms: The Pandemic's Devastating Toll On Women

Women are seeing the fabric of their lives unravel during the pandemic .
Nowhere is that more visible than on the job .
In September , an eye-popping 865,000 women left the U.S. workforce — four times more than men .
The coronavirus pandemic is wreaking havoc on households , and women are bearing the brunt of it .
Not only have they lost the most jobs from the beginning of the pandemic , but they are exhausted from the demands of child care and housework — and many are now seeing no path ahead but to quit working .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ years : More women than men are enrolled in college , in medical schools and law schools .
The number of women in the workforce even overtook men for a brief period of three months through February this year .
But the uncomfortable truth is that in their homes , women are still fitting into stereotypical roles of doing the bulk of cooking , cleaning and parenting .
It 's another form of systemic inequality within a 21st century home that the pandemic is laying bare .
Already , their parents are getting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ falling behind .
So along with doing everything else , working becomes impossible .
`` The problem is that right now a lot of women do n't really have choices , right ? ''
says Martha Gimbel , a labor economist at the nonprofit initiative Schmidt Futures .
`` They ca n't send their kids to school .
Someone has to supervise the learning .
Someone has to deal with the cooking .
Someone has to deal with the cleaning , and it 's falling onto them .
And so they ca n't @ @ @ @ @ @ @ because they 're being restricted in all these ways . ''
The pandemic 's female exodus has decidedly turned back the clock by at least a generation , with the share of women in the workforce down to levels not seen since 1988 .
A growing , prosperous economy depends on a large and committed workforce , with women playing a vital role .
If women decide to stay on the sidelines , the very dynamism of the United States economy is at risk , as many households lose half of their earnings @ @ @ @ @ @ @ even turn back the clock on gender equity , with harmful consequences to society and the economy .
`` If not soon reversed , the decline in the participation rate for prime‑age women could have longer-term implications for household incomes and potential growth , '' Federal Reserve Gov .
Lael Brainard said in a speech last week .
Brainard says if women continue to remain out of employment , it risks `` harming not only the prospects of these individuals , but also the economy 's potential growth rate . ''
The gender @ @ @ @ @ @ @ — women make 82 cents for every dollar a man earns .
So when couples have to take an economic decision , because women typically earn less , they are the ones who take the step back .
This `` mom penalty '' is even higher for women who are better educated and have higher incomes .
In fact , among this group , this step back comes with a `` dad premium . ''
Driven by the biological clock , women take time off or cut back on their hours just as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ men the opportunity to carry on with their work , move up and earn more .
The pandemic has certainly poked the bear .
And the large numbers of women leaving the workforce seems like a collective cry of anguish , and an anger that is spilling out into local Facebook groups , Twitter feeds , blog posts , and even obituaries .
Part of this stems from recent history , when many women simmered with rage in the wake of the # MeToo movement , leading to an outpouring of stories of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ And soon after , millions of women marched the streets after the last presidential election , seethed during the confirmation of Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh , and finally grieved the death of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsberg , who spent a lifetime fighting for women 's rights .
And now again , there 's a sense of hopelessness and loss of control , which contributes to the stress and exasperation that is on full display on social media .
`` I am tired .
And I am angry .
Livid in fact .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ writes in a Medium post .
Laurence , mother to a teenage son and a college-going daughter , writes about being worried about the challenges of protecting them .
She recounts how she gets her entire family tested for COVID-19 when she goes to visit her 80-year-old father who is in treatment for cancer .
They also quarantine , drive eight hours , and then only to interact with her parents outdoors .
`` It .
Is .
Exhausting , '' she says .
What 's at stake : Future earnings and the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the chin , up and down the income spectrum .
A large portion of job losses during the pandemic has come in businesses like restaurants and hotels , both sectors with high female employment .
Many of them are low income , and the impact on their households is devastating .
All this reverses years of gains made by women .
In 1948 , when the Labor Department started tracking the data , only a third of women held jobs , but that number had nearly doubled by the late 1990s .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ below 57 % for the first time since 1988 .
The scars from this time can linger , especially given the consequences for the financial stability of women .
An employment gap of just one year leads to a 39 % decrease in annual earnings and that increases over time , according to a report from the Institute for Women 's Policy Research .
It also reduces women 's chances of breaking the glass ceiling and becoming future leaders in society .
`` The problem is that we have a lot of evidence @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the labor force , it can be very difficult to get back in , '' the economist Gimbel says .
`` And the other aspect of this is you are not then making progress in your career .
You are not getting promoted .
You are not building out skills and experience that will cause future employers to pay you more money . ''
NPR 's Scott Horsley , Stacey Vanek Smith and Andrea Hsu contributed to this report

Stuck-At-Home Moms: The Pandemic's Devastating Toll On Women
Enlarge this image toggle caption Malte Mueller/fStop/Getty Images Malte Mueller/fStop/Getty Images
Women are seeing the fabric of their lives unravel during the pandemic. Nowhere is that more visible than on the job.
In September, an eye-popping 865,000 women left the U.S. workforce — four times more than men.
The coronavirus pandemic is wreaking havoc on households, and women are bearing the brunt of it. Not only have they lost the most jobs from the beginning of the pandemic, but they are exhausted from the demands of child care and housework — and many are now seeing no path ahead but to quit working.
Women have made great strides over the years: More women than men are enrolled in college, in medical schools and law schools.
The number of women in the workforce even overtook men for a brief period of three months through February this year.
But the uncomfortable truth is that in their homes, women are still fitting into stereotypical roles of doing the bulk of cooking, cleaning and parenting. It's another form of systemic inequality within a 21st century home that the pandemic is laying bare.
Loading...
Already, their parents are getting sick and dying. Their kids are falling behind. So along with doing everything else, working becomes impossible.
"The problem is that right now a lot of women don't really have choices, right?" says Martha Gimbel, a labor economist at the nonprofit initiative Schmidt Futures. "They can't send their kids to school. Someone has to supervise the learning. Someone has to deal with the cooking. Someone has to deal with the cleaning, and it's falling onto them. And so they can't make choices that they want to make because they're being restricted in all these ways."
Women are back in 1988
The pandemic's female exodus has decidedly turned back the clock by at least a generation, with the share of women in the workforce down to levels not seen since 1988.
A growing, prosperous economy depends on a large and committed workforce, with women playing a vital role. If women decide to stay on the sidelines, the very dynamism of the U.S. economy is at risk as many households lose half of their earnings and productive capacity. This trend could even turn back the clock on gender equity, with harmful consequences to society and the economy.
Economists are worried.
"If not soon reversed, the decline in the participation rate for prime‑age women could have longer-term implications for household incomes and potential growth," Federal Reserve Gov. Lael Brainard said in a speech last week. Brainard says if women continue to remain out of employment, it risks "harming not only the prospects of these individuals, but also the economy's potential growth rate."
"Mom penalty" vs. the "dad premium"
The gender pay gap is playing a big role — women make 82 cents for every dollar a man earns. So when couples have to take an economic decision, because women typically earn less, they are the ones who take the step back.
Loading...
This "mom penalty" is even higher for women who are better educated and have higher incomes. In fact, among this group, this step back comes with a "dad premium." Driven by the biological clock, women take time off or cut back on their hours just as their careers are taking off, giving men the opportunity to carry on with their work, move up and earn more.
Buildup of rage in recent years
The pandemic has certainly poked the bear. And the large numbers of women leaving the workforce seems like a collective cry of anguish, and an anger that is spilling out into local Facebook groups, Twitter feeds, blog posts and even obituaries.
Part of this stems from recent history, when many women simmered with rage in the wake of the #MeToo movement, leading to an outpouring of stories of humiliation or being molested by men. And soon after, millions of women marched the streets after the last presidential election, seethed during the confirmation of Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh and finally grieved the death of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, who spent a lifetime fighting for women's rights.
And now again, there's a sense of hopelessness and loss of control, which contributes to the stress and exasperation that is on full display on social media.
"I am tired. And I am angry. Livid in fact. Filled with rage," Selena Laurence writes in a Medium post. Laurence, mother to a teenage son and a college-going daughter, writes about being worried about the challenges of protecting them. She recounts how she gets her entire family tested for the coronavirus when she goes to visit her 80-year-old father, who is in treatment for cancer. They also quarantine, drive eight hours and then only interact with her parents outdoors. "It. Is. Exhausting," she says.
What's at stake: Future earnings and the glass ceiling
Women are taking it on the chin, up and down the income spectrum. A large portion of job losses during the pandemic has come in businesses such as restaurants and hotels, both sectors with high female employment. Many of them are low-income, and the impact on their households is devastating.
All this reverses years of gains made by women. In 1948, when the Labor Department started tracking the data, a third of women held jobs, but that number had nearly doubled by the late 1990s. The ratio of women working has now fallen below 57% for the first time since 1988.
The scars from this time can linger, especially given the consequences for the financial stability of women. An employment gap of just one year leads to a 39% decrease in annual earnings and that increases over time, according to a report from the Institute for Women's Policy Research. It also reduces women's chances of breaking the glass ceiling and becoming future leaders in society.
"The problem is that we have a lot of evidence that when you take time out of the labor force, it can be very difficult to get back in," the economist Gimbel says. "And the other aspect of this is you are not then making progress in your career. You are not getting promoted. You are not building out skills and experience that will cause future employers to pay you more money."
NPR's Scott Horsley, Stacey Vanek Smith and Andrea Hsu contributed to this report.


npr--2020-10-28--Glass Half Full? Record U.S. GDP Growth Will Mask A Deeply Hurting Economy

On its surface , economic growth data out this week will look like one for the record books .
But dig in , and the picture is not as bright .
The Commerce Department is expected to report on Thursday record-setting growth in gross domestic product during the most recent quarter , reflecting pent-up demand as businesses reopened and consumers streamed back into the marketplace .
However , that wo n't be enough to repair all of the damage done during the spectacular collapse three months earlier .
And with coronavirus infections now on the rise again , growth is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the year , with a new relief bill from Congress seen as highly unlikely before next week 's election .
`` These are numbers for the record books , '' said Nariman Behravesh , chief economist at the forecasting firm IHS Markit .
Behravesh , however , was less hopeful about the current quarter .
`` If you pull back on a rubber band and let go , it 's going to snap back .
But then it kind of goes limp after that , '' he added .
`` I think @ @ @ @ @ @ @ growth rate '' in the fourth quarter of the year .
Forecasters expect the government to report that GDP expanded at least an annualized 30 % in July , August and September , in what would ordinarily be seen as a blockbuster .
But the economy also contracted at an annual revised rate of 31.4 % in the previous quarter , the sharpest pullback in modern American history .
With less than a week before Election Day , President Trump has been touting the upcoming report as evidence of a strong `` V-shaped @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is bouncing back as quickly as it collapsed .
`` Wait till you see that number on GDP , '' Trump told supporters in Allentown , Pa. , on Monday .
`` We 're having a super-V. '' But the recovery so far has been wildly uneven .
Many companies that produce goods have roughly returned to pre-pandemic levels , but those oriented toward services — especially those that rely on face-to-face interactions with consumers — are still far behind .
`` Services have been clobbered , '' Behravesh said .
`` Airline @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it was a year ago .
Hotels : high vacancy rates .
Convention centers : empty .
Stadiums : empty .
These are all bad news for the economy . ''
Government relief payments that helped cushion the downturn in the spring and early summer have largely run out .
A new round of relief is nowhere in sight , even though the economy has recovered only about half of the 22 million jobs that were lost during the spring .
`` A lot of these jobs are gone forever , '' Behravesh @ @ @ @ @ @ @ worrisome trend . ''
As big as this year 's swings in GDP have been , the official numbers from the Commerce Department can also be misleading .
The federal government typically reports quarterly changes in GDP as if they were sustained for a full year .
In a volatile period like this , that exaggerates both the downturn — and then the subsequent comeback .
In fact , the economy was only 9 % smaller during April , May and June than it was previous quarter — historically bad , but not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 31.4 % in the headline number .
Likewise , the third-quarter growth rate is expected to be reported as well above 30 % .
But with growth already tapering off as coronavirus infections start to climb again , the real improvement during the quarter will be significantly less than that — likely well short of the 9.9 % quarterly growth rate that would be needed to erase the second-quarter decline .
While the pandemic-driven downturn was historically sharp , it was also mercifully short-lived .
Monthly data suggest the economy started growing again @ @ @ @ @ @ @ shortest U.S. recession on record , '' Behravesh said .
`` This thing lasted two months , which was basically March and April .
The next shortest recession was in 1980 , which was six months . ''
But the pace of recovery — and the expectations surrounding it — also matter , and that may deprive Trump of a much-needed political boost ahead of Nov. 3 .
When unemployment was at its worst during the spring , economist Jason Furman urged Democrats not to be overconfident .
He warned that a rapid @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lift to the president , just in time for the November election .
While the economic comeback has been stronger than many forecasters expected , most of those gains came months ago , and economic momentum is now fading .
Furman , an economic adviser to former President Barack Obama , said that this may limit the benefit for Trump 's reelection hopes .
`` From a political perspective , it is n't , just , are you improving , but how is the pace of improvement ? ''
Furman said .
`` @ @ @ @ @ @ @ And that , I think , makes it less politically good for President Trump or maybe even politically bad for him . ''

Last Report Card On U.S. Economy Before Elections Will Be A Blockbuster
Enlarge this image toggle caption Valerie Macon/AFP via Getty Images Valerie Macon/AFP via Getty Images
On its surface, economic growth data out this week will look like one for the record books. But dig in, and the picture is not as bright.
The Commerce Department is expected to report on Thursday record-setting growth in gross domestic product during the most recent quarter, reflecting pent-up demand as businesses reopened and consumers streamed back into the marketplace.
However, that won't be enough to repair all of the damage done during the spectacular collapse three months earlier.
And with coronavirus infections now on the rise again, growth is likely to slow during the final months of the year, with a new relief bill from Congress seen as highly unlikely before next week's election.
"These are numbers for the record books," said Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at the forecasting firm IHS Markit.
Behravesh, however, was less hopeful about the current quarter.
"If you pull back on a rubber band and let go, it's going to snap back. But then it kind of goes limp after that," he added. "I think we're looking at a very lackluster growth rate" in the fourth quarter of the year.
Forecasters expect the government to report that GDP expanded at least an annualized 30% in July, August and September, in what would ordinarily be seen as a blockbuster.
But the economy also contracted at an annual revised rate of 31.4% in the previous quarter, the sharpest pullback in modern American history.
With less than a week before Election Day, President Trump has been touting the upcoming report as evidence of a strong "V-shaped" recovery, insisting that the economy is bouncing back as quickly as it collapsed.
"Wait till you see that number on GDP," Trump told supporters in Allentown, Pa., on Monday. "We're having a super-V."
But the recovery so far has been wildly uneven. Many companies that produce goods have roughly returned to pre-pandemic levels, but those oriented toward services — especially those that rely on face-to-face interactions with consumers — are still far behind.
"Services have been clobbered," Behravesh said. "Airline traffic: only 30% of what it was a year ago. Hotels: high vacancy rates. Convention centers: empty. Stadiums: empty. These are all bad news for the economy."
Government relief payments that helped cushion the downturn in the spring and early summer have largely run out. A new round of relief is nowhere in sight, even though the economy has recovered only about half of the 22 million jobs that were lost during the spring.
"A lot of these jobs are gone forever," Behravesh said. "That's a very worrisome trend."
As big as this year's swings in GDP have been, the official numbers from the Commerce Department can also be misleading.
The federal government typically reports quarterly changes in GDP as if they were sustained for a full year. In a volatile period like this, that exaggerates both the downturn — and then the subsequent comeback.
In fact, the economy was only 9% smaller during April, May and June than it was previous quarter — historically bad, but not as bad as the annual contraction of 31.4% in the headline number.
Likewise, the third-quarter growth rate is expected to be reported as well above 30%.
But with growth already tapering off as coronavirus infections start to climb again, the real improvement during the quarter will be significantly less than that — likely well short of the 9.9% quarterly growth rate that would be needed to erase the second-quarter decline.
While the pandemic-driven downturn was historically sharp, it was also mercifully short-lived. Monthly data suggest the economy started growing again by May.
"This was the shortest U.S. recession on record," Behravesh said. "This thing lasted two months, which was basically March and April. The next shortest recession was in 1980, which was six months."
But the pace of recovery — and the expectations surrounding it — also matter, and that may deprive Trump of a much-needed political boost ahead of Nov. 3.
When unemployment was at its worst during the spring, economist Jason Furman urged Democrats not to be overconfident. He warned that a rapid rebound in the economy could give a lift to the president, just in time for the November election.
While the economic comeback has been stronger than many forecasters expected, most of those gains came months ago, and economic momentum is now fading. Furman, an economic adviser to former President Barack Obama, said that this may limit the benefit for Trump's reelection hopes.
"From a political perspective, it isn't, just, are you improving, but how is the pace of improvement?" Furman said. "The pace of improvement is slowing. And that, I think, makes it less politically good for President Trump or maybe even politically bad for him."


npr--2020-10-28--Trump Has Weaponized Masculinity As President. Here's Why It Matters

Trump Has Weaponized Masculinity As President .
Here 's Why It Matters When President Trump was released from the hospital after being treated for COVID-19 , he had a prescription for how Americans could handle coronavirus .
`` Do n't let it dominate you .
Do n't be afraid of it , '' he said in a video from the White House .
The apparent idea : that the coronavirus — which has killed at least 225,000 people in the U.S. — could be wrestled into submission .
The way Trump has sold strength as a key part of fighting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Garland Thompson was in the cheering crowd gathered outside Walter Reed National Military Medical Center when Trump left the hospital .
I asked him how worried about Trump 's health he was .
He said he was n't .
`` He 's a vibrant man .
He 's strong .
This man , he looks stronger than Biden .
Let 's admit it , '' Thompson said .
Trump 's overt hypermasculinity was a defining feature of his candidacy in 2016 , whether he was talking about his testosterone count or his penis @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Hollywood tape , in which he talked about committing sexual assault as `` locker room talk . ''
That macho approach went on to define his presidency , as well .
His opponents know it , too , and they 're trying to turn this key piece of his political success into a vulnerability .
The anti-Trump Lincoln Project has made multiple ads taking aim at Trump 's manhood .
`` Even Fox said you were low-energy , '' a woman purrs in one ad about the Republican convention 's TV ratings .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ now .
You 're tired .
It 's hard to keep your [ meaningful pause ] ratings up . ''
Of course , masculinity is interwoven with presidential politics ; all American presidents have all been men , as have all major-party nominees , save one .
Trump did n't create this atmosphere , and he 's not the only one who benefits from it , either — so does Joe Biden .
It has boosted and busted the fortunes of presidents .
However , Trump has been blatant about amping up his @ @ @ @ @ @ @ masculinity .
After four years , that machismo has manifested itself in seemingly every area of his presidency .
And it matters — it has potential political and even policy impacts that may last well beyond his tenure in office .
Trump and some of his high-profile supporters often portray mask wearing as a sign of weakness .
He mocked Joe Biden in the first debate for wearing a mask , and Trump implied at one point that to wear one publicly would be to give in : `` I did n't want @ @ @ @ @ @ @ seeing it . ''
Conservative commentator Tomi Lahren was more explicit in linking masks to gender , joking that Biden `` might as well carry a purse with that mask . ''
In the past , men have been less likely to adopt all sorts of public health measures , like wearing seat belts and helmets , as the New York Times reported .
But Trump did not fight this mindset ; instead , he continually questioned the effectiveness of masks , despite his own administration 's guidelines promoting them .
As the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ he has enormous messaging power to encourage mask-wearing , or discourage it .
As it stands , Republicans are less likely than Democrats to believe masks are effective , or to say they wear masks .
There was another approach Trump could have taken , says Meredith Conroy , professor of political science at California State University .
`` There was a way to make wearing a mask masculine , a different type of masculinity , about protecting other people and being patriotic , '' she said .
`` But that 's not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ really ever embodied .
So it probably was never going to happen . ''
There are areas beyond public health that reflect Trump 's focus on masculinity , and where it may in fact even influence policy .
For example , there are effects on America 's international relations — as when Trump has praised strongmen or authoritarian leaders .
He has hailed Russia 's Vladimir Putin and China 's Xi Jinping as `` strong '' and Turkey 's Recip Tayyip Erdogan as `` a tough guy who deserves respect . ''
Trump @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tensions , as when Trump tweeted that he had a `` much bigger and more powerful '' `` Nuclear Button '' than North Korea 's Kim Jong Un — `` and my button works ! ''
Masculinity is also reflected in Trump 's economic rhetoric .
He was blatant about it this week , when he told a crowd in Michigan , `` We 're getting your husbands back to work . ''
( This is despite the fact that women have disproportionately dropped out of the labor force during the pandemic ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ been present in the president 's insistent focus on male-dominated , blue-collar professions .
In multiple major economic addresses and State of the Union speeches , Trump has highlighted professions like manufacturing , mining and construction , but virtually ignored other working-class , `` pink-collar '' workers in female-dominated , care-oriented jobs like nursing or health aides .
And in his job-creation initiatives , Trump has also tended to focus on those blue-collar areas — particularly manufacturing .
Indeed , he seems to relish the public appearances he gets to do while promoting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ or sits behind the wheel of a semi .
It 's true that manufacturing can provide stable , high-paying jobs , and that COVID-19 showed that U.S. supply chains need improvement .
However , a relentless focus on manufacturing overstates that industry 's importance in regaining American jobs , while obscuring the reality of America 's growing working class of women — often , nonwhite women — in the service sector .
Aggressive masculine politics can fuel political dysfunction , says Kristin Kobes du Mez , author of Jesus and John Wayne , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
`` Militancy is at the heart of [ Trump 's ] identity , and militancy requires enemies , and so his enemies are both foreign and domestic , '' she said .
Beyond picking fights with foreign leaders , Trump does so with domestic politicians and the news media .
The clear idea that comes across , du Mez says , is that `` compromise is a sign of weakness . ''
`` What we lose here is a sense of a larger common good , '' she said .
`` And @ @ @ @ @ @ @ our political polarization . ''
If the need to appear tough causes a president to not just disagree with but demonize the other party — to belittle them with nicknames like Crazy Nancy Pelosi or Cryin ' Chuck Schumer , for example — it 's easy to see how it could fuel polarization .
It 's noteworthy that President Trump seems to have a gendered pattern to his put-downs : he tends to belittle male opponents as weak , saying they are `` cryin ' '' or `` little '' or `` low-energy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 's looks or casts them as hysterical .
Not only that , but he has a pattern of attacking women of color , as NPR 's Juana Summers has reported .
Race is also inseparable from this masculine posturing , according to du Mez .
She pointed to the violent suppression of Black Lives Matter protesters , as well as the defense of confederate monuments and Columbus Day .
`` These heroes that are celebrated tend to be white military heroes that enforce this myth of white masculine power as really being the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the American story , '' she said .
There are signs that Trump 's macho rhetoric is filtering down to other party members — as when Texas Senator Ted Cruz tweeted that `` many liberal males never grow balls '' or when Georgia Sen. Kelly Loeffler tweeted a video depicting Trump physically wrestling the coronavirus to the ground and beating up on it .
`` I think Trump 's exaggerated hypermasculinity , if you could call it that , has , if it 's done anything , it 's driven women away @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Matthews , a Republican pollster who has been critical of Trump .
She points out that women have increasingly been filtering over to the Democratic Party , and men to the Republican Party .
Overt masculinity may also be shaping how women run within the party , Matthews added .
`` I think the Trump era has attracted a different kind of Republican woman who may want to run for office — somebody who may have a little backlash to the women 's marches or political correctness , '' she said .
In @ @ @ @ @ @ @ adopting one particular stereotypically masculine prop .
`` One of the things I was noticing in the 2020 election , as I was sort of taking a look at some of the Republican women running for office , is how many of them seem to be presenting themselves as not only Second Amendment supporters , but pictures of themselves with guns — large guns . ''
Matthews found that more than one-third of non-incumbent Republican women running for Congress had campaign materials prominently featuring them with guns .
Arizona Republican U.S. House Tiffany @ @ @ @ @ @ @ photo of herself with a rifle resting on her shoulder on her website .
In some campaign photos , Colorado Republican U.S. House candidate Lauren Boebert has a pistol strapped to her thigh .
The dynamics here are complicated : the Republican Party has grown more conservative as it has grown more male — two factors that may in fact be related .
Those women candidates simply have to appeal to that more conservative ( and more male ) electorate .
The upshot is this : In a party that has struggled to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ majority of voters , and where the head of the party encourages hypermasculinity , the kind of women candidates who can break through may just be the ones who can speak that language .
Furthermore , to the extent that Trump appeals more to men than women , he may be accelerating these long-standing trends of both an increasing gender gap and increasing ideological distance between the parties .
For his part , Joe Biden is n't as aggressive in his posturing .
However , he wields and benefits from masculinity in his @ @ @ @ @ @ @ North and the Washington Post 's Matt Viser have noted .
In a campaign video promoting American-made cars , he oohed and aahed over a classic Corvette .
`` God , could my dad drive a car .
Oof , '' he said .
Biden has done the aggressive , macho act as well — he has talked about wanting to `` beat the hell out of '' Trump and suggested push-up contests with both Trump and an Iowa voter .
He also at one point laughed off accusations of behaving inappropriately to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to know I had permission to hug Lonnie . ''
he said , after hugging International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers President Lonnie Stephenson at a 2019 event .
But then , he has examples of himself as an empathetic caregiver — an image the Biden campaign has worked hard to emphasize .
A years-old video of Biden comforting family members of mass shooting victims was recently viewed more than 11 million times on Twitter .
In it , the son of a victim ran up and hugged him .
`` Thank you for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ kissing the boy on his forehead .
`` You okay ?
You 'll be okay .
We 're gon na be okay .
We 're gon na be okay .
I promise . ''
Some have called this a sort of enlightened masculinity .
Conroy , however , thinks differently .
`` When people talk about Biden 's empathy and compassion and they 're like , 'That 's a 21st century vision of masculinity . '
No , it 's not !
It 's just femininity ! ''
she said .
It may @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 's more room for Biden to appear warm and caring among heavily-female Democratic voters .
That may be evident on Election Day .
Polls suggest that the gender gap in this year 's election could be record-setting .

Trump Has Weaponized Masculinity As President. Here's Why It Matters
Enlarge this image toggle caption Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images
When President Trump was released from the hospital after being treated for COVID-19, he had a prescription for how Americans could handle the coronavirus.
"Don't let it dominate you. Don't be afraid of it," he said in a video from the White House. The apparent idea: that the coronavirus, which has killed at least 225,000 people in the U.S., could be wrestled into submission.
The way Trump has sold strength as a key part of fighting the virus is echoed by supporters. Garland Thompson was in the cheering crowd gathered outside Walter Reed National Military Medical Center when Trump left the hospital. I asked him how worried about Trump's health he was. He said he wasn't.
"He's a vibrant man. He's strong. This man, he looks stronger than Biden. Let's admit it," Thompson said.
Trump's overt hypermasculinity was a defining feature of his candidacy in 2016, whether he was talking about his testosterone count or his penis size or shrugging off the infamous Access Hollywood tape, in which he talked about committing sexual assault as "locker room talk." That macho approach went on to define his presidency as well.
His opponents know it, too, and they're trying to turn this key piece of his political success into a vulnerability. The anti-Trump Lincoln Project has made multiple ads taking aim at Trump's manhood.
"Even Fox said you were low-energy," a woman purrs in one ad about the Republican convention's TV ratings. "We know. It's different now. You're tired. It's hard to keep your [meaningful pause] ratings up."
Of course, masculinity is interwoven with presidential politics; all American presidents have been men, as have all major-party nominees, save one. Trump didn't create this atmosphere, and he's not the only one who benefits from it, either — so does Joe Biden. It has boosted and busted the fortunes of presidents.
However, Trump has been blatant about amping up his particular, aggressive and pugilistic brand of masculinity. After four years, that machismo has manifested itself in seemingly every area of his presidency. And it matters — it has potential political and even policy impacts that may last well beyond his tenure in office.
"Carry a purse with that mask"
Trump and some of his high-profile supporters often portray mask wearing as a sign of weakness. He mocked Joe Biden in the first debate for wearing a mask, and Trump implied at one point that to wear one publicly would be to give in: "I didn't want to give the press the pleasure of seeing it."
Conservative commentator Tomi Lahren was more explicit in linking masks to gender, joking that Biden "might as well carry a purse with that mask."
In the past, men have been less likely to adopt all sorts of public health measures, like wearing seat belts and helmets, as The New York Times reported. But Trump did not fight this mindset; instead, he continually questioned the effectiveness of masks, despite his own administration's guidelines promoting them.
As the president, with constant media attention, he has enormous messaging power to encourage mask-wearing, or discourage it. As it stands, Republicans are less likely than Democrats to believe masks are effective, or to say they wear masks.
There was another approach Trump could have taken, says Meredith Conroy, professor of political science at California State University.
"There was a way to make wearing a mask masculine, a different type of masculinity, about protecting other people and being patriotic," she said. "But that's not the type of masculinity that Trump has really ever embodied. So it probably was never going to happen."
Strongmen, factory workers and Confederate generals
There are areas beyond public health that reflect Trump's focus on masculinity — areas where it may influence policy.
For example, there are effects on America's international relations — as when Trump has praised strongmen or authoritarian leaders. He has hailed Russia's Vladimir Putin and China's Xi Jinping as "strong" and Turkey's Recep Tayyip Erdogan as "a tough guy who deserves respect."
Trump's combative style also could exacerbate existing tensions, as when Trump tweeted that he had a "much bigger and more powerful" "Nuclear Button" than North Korea's Kim Jong Un — "and my button works!"
Masculinity is also reflected in Trump's economic rhetoric. He was blatant about it this week when he told a crowd in Michigan, "We're getting your husbands back to work." (This is despite the fact that women have disproportionately dropped out of the labor force during the pandemic.)
But it also has arguably long been present in the president's insistent focus on male-dominated, blue-collar professions.
In multiple major economic addresses and State of the Union speeches, Trump has highlighted professions like manufacturing, mining and construction, but virtually ignored other working-class, "pink-collar" workers in female-dominated, care-oriented jobs like nursing or health aides. And in his job-creation initiatives, Trump has also tended to focus on those blue-collar areas — particularly manufacturing.
Indeed, he seems to relish the public appearances he gets to do while promoting these industries, as he dons hard hats or sits behind the wheel of a semi.
It's true that manufacturing can provide stable, high-paying jobs and that COVID-19 showed that U.S. supply chains need improvement. However, a relentless focus on manufacturing overstates that industry's importance in regaining American jobs, while obscuring the reality of America's growing working class of women — often, nonwhite women — in the service sector.
Masculinity and political dysfunction
Aggressive masculine politics can fuel political dysfunction, says Kristin Kobes Du Mez, author of Jesus and John Wayne, a book about white evangelicals and masculinity.
"Militancy is at the heart of [Trump's] identity, and militancy requires enemies, and so his enemies are both foreign and domestic," she said.
Beyond picking fights with foreign leaders, Trump does so with domestic politicians and the news media. The clear idea that comes across, Du Mez says, is that "compromise is a sign of weakness."
"What we lose here is a sense of a larger common good," she said. "And this militant masculine identity really does drive our political polarization."
If the need to appear tough causes a president to not just disagree with but demonize the other party — to belittle them with nicknames like Crazy Nancy Pelosi or Cryin' Chuck Schumer, for example — it's easy to see how it could fuel polarization.
It's noteworthy that President Trump seems to have a gendered pattern to his put-downs: He tends to belittle male opponents as weak, saying they are "cryin'" or "little" or "low-energy," whereas he often insults women's looks or casts them as hysterical. Not only that, but he has a pattern of attacking women of color, as NPR's Juana Summers has reported.
Race is also inseparable from this masculine posturing, according to Du Mez. She pointed to the violent suppression of Black Lives Matter protesters, as well as the defense of Confederate monuments and Columbus Day.
"These heroes that are celebrated tend to be white military heroes that enforce this myth of white masculine power as really being the center of American history, the center of the American story," she said.
Reshaping Republican politics
There are signs that Trump's macho rhetoric is filtering down to other party members — as when Texas Sen. Ted Cruz tweeted that "many liberal males never grow balls" or when Georgia Sen. Kelly Loeffler tweeted a video depicting Trump physically wrestling the coronavirus to the ground and beating up on it.
"I think Trump's exaggerated hypermasculinity, if you could call it that, has, if it's done anything, it's driven women away from the party," said Christine Matthews, a Republican pollster who has been critical of Trump.
She points out that women have increasingly been filtering over to the Democratic Party, and men to the Republican Party.
Overt masculinity may also be shaping how women run within the party, Matthews added.
"I think the Trump era has attracted a different kind of Republican woman who may want to run for office — somebody who may have a little backlash to the women's marches or political correctness," she said.
In fact, she says those women are adopting one particular stereotypically masculine prop.
"One of the things I was noticing in the 2020 election, as I was sort of taking a look at some of the Republican women running for office, is how many of them seem to be presenting themselves as not only Second Amendment supporters, but pictures of themselves with guns — large guns."
Matthews found that more than one-third of non-incumbent Republican women running for Congress had campaign materials prominently featuring them with guns. Arizona Republican U.S. House candidate Tiffany Shedd, for example, has a photo of herself with a rifle resting on her shoulder on her website. In some campaign photos, Colorado Republican U.S. House candidate Lauren Boebert has a pistol strapped to her thigh.
The dynamics here are complicated: the Republican Party has grown more conservative as it has grown more male — two factors that may in fact be related. Those women candidates simply have to appeal to that more conservative (and more male) electorate.
The upshot is this: In a party that has struggled to elect women, where men are the majority of voters, and where the head of the party encourages hypermasculinity, the kind of female candidates who can break through may just be the ones who can speak that language.
Furthermore, to the extent that Trump appeals more to men than women, he may be accelerating these long-standing trends of both an increasing gender gap and increasing ideological distance between the parties.
Biden's masculinity — and femininity
For his part, Joe Biden isn't as aggressive in his posturing. However, he wields and benefits from masculinity in his own way, as Vox's Anna North and the Washington Post's Matt Viser have noted. In a campaign video promoting American-made cars, he oohed and aahed over a classic Corvette.
"God, could my dad drive a car. Oof," he said.
Biden has done the macho act as well — he has talked about wanting to "beat the hell out of" Trump and suggested push-up contests with both Trump and an Iowa voter.
He also at one point laughed off accusations of behaving inappropriately to women. "I just want you to know I had permission to hug Lonnie," he said, after hugging International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers President Lonnie Stephenson at a 2019 event.
But then, he has examples of himself as an empathetic caregiver — an image the Biden campaign has worked hard to emphasize. A years-old video of Biden comforting family members of mass shooting victims was recently viewed more than 11 million times on Twitter. In it, the son of a victim ran up and hugged him.
"Thank you for hugging me!" Biden said, kissing the boy on his forehead. "You OK? You'll be OK. We're gonna be OK. We're gonna be OK. I promise."
Some have called this a sort of enlightened masculinity. Conroy, however, thinks differently.
"When people talk about Biden's empathy and compassion and they're like, 'That's a 21st century vision of masculinity.' No, it's not! It's just femininity!" she said.
It may be, she adds, that there's more room for Biden to appear warm and caring among heavily female Democratic voters.
That may be evident on Election Day. Polls suggest that the gender gap in this year's election could be record-setting.


npr--2020-10-28--Wyoming Is Using Dark Money To Help Keep Coal Plants In Other States Open

Wyoming Is Using Dark Money To Help Keep Coal Plants In Other States Open Stephanie Kodish is used to opposition to her work .
In her job with the National Parks Conservation Association , she pushes utilities to comply with environmental laws .
That can mean installing expensive new anti-pollution technology on coal plants , or even closing them down .
Last year , though , she encountered a completely new kind of opposition that left her disconcerted .
After years of feuding and lawsuits , the utility Entergy Arkansas Inc. had agreed to shut down two coal plants over @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Arkansas Attorney General and a local coalition called the Arkansas Affordable Energy Coalition intervened , asking a judge to stop the settlement .
They argued that other fuel sources would be more expensive and less reliable .
But emails obtained through public records requests show the coalition represents more than just coal , gas and steel businesses in Arkansas .
In fact , it was created by a nonprofit — the Energy Policy Network — whose largest financial contributor most years is the state of Wyoming , home to the coal mines @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for shut down .
When told the coalition was backed by Wyoming Kodish first laughed in surprise , but then turned serious .
`` It 's disturbing to learn that those interests are disingenuous and people are being manipulated , '' she says .
Several ethics and transparency experts say this is the first time they have heard of a U.S. state using so-called `` dark money '' in this way .
They agree that it raises troubling questions about state officials backing a group that surreptitiously seeks to impact policy elsewhere .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ the arsenal '' Wyoming officials say the nonprofit Energy Policy Network is a critical piece of their efforts to preserve coal , long a foundation for the state 's economy .
A Wyoming native who served in the state House and Senate during the 1980s founded the group in 2015 .
`` This is something we needed to have in the arsenal , '' says Renny MacKay , the policy director for Wyoming Gov .
Mark Gordon .
`` We are so beholden on what happens outside of Wyoming . ''
Since 2010 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ coal-fired power plants retire .
Last year , electricity generated from coal fell to a 42 year low according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration , in large part because it ca n't compete with cheaper natural gas .
The current pandemic has delivered another blow , and falling prices for wind and solar energy also pose a long term challenge to coal .
Jason Begger , deputy director of the Wyoming Energy Authority , a state entity , says the Energy Policy Network is an affordable way to boost Wyoming 's influence @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Club who actively fight for coal-plant closures .
`` Wyoming certainly does n't have the resources or the expertise to go out there and fight every fight , '' says Begger .
But it has weighed in on fights to keep coal plants open in nine states , as the Energy Policy Network has intervened in lawsuits , built local coalitions , and allied with local coal-friendly politicians , mostly behind the scenes .
The group 's first engagement on behalf of Wyoming was a 2016 showdown over a coal-fired power plant in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to put new pollution controls on the plant to keep it operating , at a cost of $ 500 million to Oklahoma ratepayers .
Environmental groups , wind energy and natural gas companies all opposed that move and wanted to see the plant shut down in favor of renewables , which an advocate says would have been cheaper for ratepayers .
The Energy Policy Network formed a coalition to support the utility .
It included corporations like Michelin Tire and American Airlines , along with railroad companies and rural electric co-ops .
EPN @ @ @ @ @ @ @ improve reliability of the electrical grid , and that wind energy would reduce it .
Following that intervention , state regulators voted in favor of coal power with pollution controls .
The win meant OG & E would continue to burn 2.6 million tons of Wyoming coal a year , according to Randy Eminger , executive director of the Energy Policy Network .
`` OG & E 's decision to keep the Sooner plant operational and take $ 500 million from the families and small businesses of Oklahoma ... is an insult to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ '' says Al Armendariz , who worked to try and close the plant as deputy regional director for the Sierra Club 's Beyond Coal campaign .
Like Kodish in Arkansas , Armendariz was n't aware of Wyoming 's involvement .
Neither was one of EPN 's allies , the Arkansas Attorney General .
When asked if the AG knew Wyoming funds were behind the effort to keep open two coal plants there , an agency spokesperson responded simply , `` No . ''
Energy Policy Network is registered as a 501 ( c @ @ @ @ @ @ @ such organizations are n't required to disclose their financial backers .
In modern politics the designation is often derided as `` dark money . ''
Corporations , foundations and wealthy individuals like the Koch brothers have used 501 ( c ) ( 4 ) s to cloak involvement in political and regulatory affairs .
The classification 's association with a state government , however , is more novel .
Wyoming Public Media and the nonprofit news site WyoFile used public records requests to gain an understanding of the organization 's finances through internal @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tax filings .
Local and national transparency advocates express concern at the idea of taxpayer dollars funding such political maneuvering .
`` It is a little bit troubling that one state might use the subterfuge of dark money to compete with its sister states in a way that is not above board , '' says Ciara Torres-Spelliscy , an expert on money and politics at Stetson University .
Even the most well known dark money advocates might agree .
`` Transparency is meant for the government , not for private individuals , '' @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Koch Industries , told the New York Times in 2018 .
Joe Smyth , a researcher with the clean energy advocate Energy and Policy Institute , has tracked EPN 's work , and says if Wyoming wants its voice heard in other states it should be transparent about it .
`` Anyone is able to make an argument in these proceedings , '' he says .
`` The problem is that they 're hiding their role in all this through these series of front groups .
And so , I think that 's @ @ @ @ @ @ @ While the state 's role has not been widely disclosed elsewhere , it has not been kept secret in Wyoming .
EPN Director Eminger has appeared in front of state legislative committees , and the group was even highlighted at a recent press conference .
There , Wyoming Energy Authority 's Begger was asked about the nonprofit 's lack of transparency .
`` Wyoming has never been shy about its involvement , '' he said , while admitting the state has never encouraged EPN to discuss its relationship with Wyoming .
`` Due @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I do n't believe they do need to disclose their donors .
So , they do n't . ''
Energy Policy Network 's supporters say the group 's actions in other states are critical to Wyoming 's revenue .
In presentations to state officials , the nonprofit highlights four coal plants it claims a key role in keeping open and consuming Wyoming coal .
Begger said at the recent press conference that this has saved Wyoming $ 38.5 million a year in preserved coal tax revenue , a pretty good return on the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ years .
But lawyers and environmental activists in several states question whether EPN really had a substantive role in keeping those coal plants open .
`` They threw some sand in the gears , but the gears are still moving , '' says Kerwin Olson of Citizens Action Coalition in Indiana , where utilities continue to shut down coal plants despite EPN 's efforts .
In Arkansas , too , opponents say EPN took credit for events outside of its control , like stopping implementation of an environmental compliance plan that would have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was actually halted by the coal-friendly Trump administration .
Federal coal data also casts doubt on the claims of $ 38.5 million a year in savings .
The figure assumes the four coal plants in question will continue to generate the same amount of power .
But many plants are already running at lower capacity as cheap natural gas and increasing renewable energy dominate the nation 's electricity markets , and the pandemic has decreased demand .
Of the four coal plants Wyoming cites as success stories , coal consumption at three is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ two years ago , according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration .
Consumption at the fourth plant dropped by half in the same time .
All of the plants exclusively use coal from Wyoming 's Powder River Basin .
Even so , Wyoming recently announced it 's committed another $ 500,000 to the nonprofit for another two years of work to help the coal industry .
`` Is it unusual ?
Maybe so , '' says Randall Luthi , Chief Energy Advisor to Wyoming 's governor .
`` But these are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ important times for Wyoming . ''
This story was a collaboration between Wyoming Public Media and the nonprofit news site WyoFile .

Wyoming Is Using Dark Money To Help Keep Coal Plants In Other States Open
Enlarge this image toggle caption Danny Johnston/AP Danny Johnston/AP
Stephanie Kodish is used to opposition to her work. In her job with the National Parks Conservation Association, she pushes utilities to comply with environmental laws. That can mean installing expensive new anti-pollution technology on coal plants, or even closing them down.
Last year, though, she encountered a completely new kind of opposition that left her disconcerted.
After years of feuding and lawsuits, the utility Entergy Arkansas Inc. had agreed to shut down two coal plants over the next decade. Weeks later, the Arkansas Attorney General and a local coalition called the Arkansas Affordable Energy Coalition intervened, asking a judge to stop the settlement. They argued that other fuel sources would be more expensive and less reliable.
But emails obtained through public records requests show the coalition represents more than just coal, gas and steel businesses in Arkansas. In fact, it was created by a nonprofit — the Energy Policy Network — whose largest financial contributor most years is the state of Wyoming, home to the coal mines that feed the two Arkansas plants slated for shut down.
When told the coalition was backed by Wyoming Kodish first laughed in surprise, but then turned serious. "It's disturbing to learn that those interests are disingenuous and people are being manipulated," she says.
Several ethics and transparency experts say this is the first time they have heard of a U.S. state using so-called "dark money" in this way. They agree that it raises troubling questions about state officials backing a group that surreptitiously seeks to impact policy elsewhere.
"Something we needed to have in the arsenal"
Wyoming officials say the nonprofit Energy Policy Network is a critical piece of their efforts to preserve coal, long a foundation for the state's economy. A Wyoming native who served in the state House and Senate during the 1980s founded the group in 2015.
"This is something we needed to have in the arsenal," says Renny MacKay, the policy director for Wyoming Gov. Mark Gordon. "We are so beholden on what happens outside of Wyoming."
Since 2010, the U.S. has seen dozens of coal-fired power plants retire. Last year, electricity generated from coal fell to a 42 year low according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, in large part because it can't compete with cheaper natural gas. The current pandemic has delivered another blow, and falling prices for wind and solar energy also pose a long term challenge to coal.
Jason Begger, deputy director of the Wyoming Energy Authority, a state entity, says the Energy Policy Network is an affordable way to boost Wyoming's influence, and combat groups like the Sierra Club who actively fight for coal-plant closures.
"Wyoming certainly doesn't have the resources or the expertise to go out there and fight every fight," says Begger.
But it has weighed in on fights to keep coal plants open in nine states, as the Energy Policy Network has intervened in lawsuits, built local coalitions, and allied with local coal-friendly politicians, mostly behind the scenes.
Enlarge this image toggle caption Screengrab of EPN presentation/ Acquired through public records request Screengrab of EPN presentation/ Acquired through public records request
A playbook for success
The group's first engagement on behalf of Wyoming was a 2016 showdown over a coal-fired power plant in Oklahoma. Oklahoma Gas & Electric wanted to put new pollution controls on the plant to keep it operating, at a cost of $500 million to Oklahoma ratepayers.
Environmental groups, wind energy and natural gas companies all opposed that move and wanted to see the plant shut down in favor of renewables, which an advocate says would have been cheaper for ratepayers.
The Energy Policy Network formed a coalition to support the utility. It included corporations like Michelin Tire and American Airlines, along with railroad companies and rural electric co-ops. EPN argued that keeping the plant open would improve reliability of the electrical grid, and that wind energy would reduce it. Following that intervention, state regulators voted in favor of coal power with pollution controls.
The win meant OG&E would continue to burn 2.6 million tons of Wyoming coal a year, according to Randy Eminger, executive director of the Energy Policy Network.
Environmentalists, however, were dismayed.
"OG&E's decision to keep the Sooner plant operational and take $500 million from the families and small businesses of Oklahoma... is an insult to the hardworking people of the state," says Al Armendariz, who worked to try and close the plant as deputy regional director for the Sierra Club's Beyond Coal campaign.
Like Kodish in Arkansas, Armendariz wasn't aware of Wyoming's involvement.
Neither was one of EPN's allies, the Arkansas Attorney General. When asked if the AG knew Wyoming funds were behind the effort to keep open two coal plants there, an agency spokesperson responded simply, "No."
Ethical questions
Energy Policy Network is registered as a 501(c)(4) nonprofit, and such organizations aren't required to disclose their financial backers. In modern politics the designation is often derided as "dark money." Corporations, foundations and wealthy individuals like the Koch brothers have used 501(c)(4)s to cloak involvement in political and regulatory affairs.
The classification's association with a state government, however, is more novel.
Wyoming Public Media and the nonprofit news site WyoFile used public records requests to gain an understanding of the organization's finances through internal communications, state financial documents, and tax filings. Local and national transparency advocates express concern at the idea of taxpayer dollars funding such political maneuvering.
"It is a little bit troubling that one state might use the subterfuge of dark money to compete with its sister states in a way that is not above board," says Ciara Torres-Spelliscy, an expert on money and politics at Stetson University.
Even the most well known dark money advocates might agree.
"Transparency is meant for the government, not for private individuals," Philip Ellender, the head lobbyist for Koch Industries, told the New York Times in 2018.
Joe Smyth, a researcher with the clean energy advocate Energy and Policy Institute, has tracked EPN's work, and says if Wyoming wants its voice heard in other states it should be transparent about it.
"Anyone is able to make an argument in these proceedings," he says. "The problem is that they're hiding their role in all this through these series of front groups. And so, I think that's what is deserving of scrutiny."
While the state's role has not been widely disclosed elsewhere, it has not been kept secret in Wyoming.
EPN Director Eminger has appeared in front of state legislative committees, and the group was even highlighted at a recent press conference. There, Wyoming Energy Authority's Begger was asked about the nonprofit's lack of transparency.
"Wyoming has never been shy about its involvement," he said, while admitting the state has never encouraged EPN to discuss its relationship with Wyoming. "Due to [EPN's] classification, I don't believe they do need to disclose their donors. So, they don't."
Big savings?
Energy Policy Network's supporters say the group's actions in other states are critical to Wyoming's revenue. In presentations to state officials, the nonprofit highlights four coal plants it claims a key role in keeping open and consuming Wyoming coal.
Begger said at the recent press conference that this has saved Wyoming $38.5 million a year in preserved coal tax revenue, a pretty good return on the $250,000 the state gives EPN most years.
But lawyers and environmental activists in several states question whether EPN really had a substantive role in keeping those coal plants open.
"They threw some sand in the gears, but the gears are still moving," says Kerwin Olson of Citizens Action Coalition in Indiana, where utilities continue to shut down coal plants despite EPN's efforts.
In Arkansas, too, opponents say EPN took credit for events outside of its control, like stopping implementation of an environmental compliance plan that would have closed power plants there. The plan was actually halted by the coal-friendly Trump administration.
Federal coal data also casts doubt on the claims of $38.5 million a year in savings.
The figure assumes the four coal plants in question will continue to generate the same amount of power. But many plants are already running at lower capacity as cheap natural gas and increasing renewable energy dominate the nation's electricity markets, and the pandemic has decreased demand.
Of the four coal plants Wyoming cites as success stories, coal consumption at three is down by about 70% compared with two years ago, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Consumption at the fourth plant dropped by half in the same time. All of the plants exclusively use coal from Wyoming's Powder River Basin.
Even so, Wyoming recently announced it's committed another $500,000 to the nonprofit for another two years of work to help the coal industry.
"Is it unusual? Maybe so," says Randall Luthi, Chief Energy Advisor to Wyoming's governor. "But these are certainly unusual times. And these are important times for Wyoming."
This story was a collaboration between Wyoming Public Media and the nonprofit news site WyoFile.


npr--2020-10-28--10 House Races To Watch

10 House Races To Watch

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi , D-Calif. , leads a 232 to 197 Democratic majority in the House heading into the election .
There are five current vacancies and one Libertarian , former Republican , Justin Amash , R-Mich. , who left the party in 2019 in a clash over his plan to vote to impeach President Trump .
Democrats hope to keep , and possibly expand their House majority in 2020 by riding a rush of anti-Trump sentiment surging in cities and suburbs across the country .
Recent polls have prompted political analysts to shift a number of close House @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have sustained a significant cash advantage this election cycle .
Republicans hope to win back some seats in 2020 by targeting the 30 Democrats representing districts where President Trump won in 2016 .
Of those seats , 22 are held by freshmen Democrats who were part of the 2018 midterm wave that swept Democrats into power in the House .
Colin Peterson , D-Minn. — Peterson is one of the most conservative House Democrats and has often faced difficult political challenges .
He is the chairman of the House Agriculture Committee , a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in his farm-heavy district .
But the area has grown increasingly Republican , with President Trump winning 62 percent of the vote in 2016 .
Peterson has walked a fine line in attempt to fit his constituents .
He voted against impeaching President Trump but has voted with Democrats on most major bills .
Xochitl Torres Small D-NM — It 's a 2018 rematch in New Mexico .
Torres Small is again facing former state Rep. Yvette Herrell , who she narrowly defeated by less than 4,000 votes .
Polling in this district @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by 10 points in 2016 .
Republicans have tried to tie Torres Small to more liberal Democrats and the Green New Deal .
Debbie Mucarsel-Powell , D-Fla. — Florida is always a major battleground in a presidential election and this swing-y Miami-area district may be one of the hottest contests in the state .
Mucarsel-Powell defeated Republican Carlos Curbelo 2018 , winning just 51 percent of the vote .
Curbelo was a frequent Trump critic when he was in Congress but he could not outrun the Democratic wave .
Mucarsel-Powell now faces Carlos @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Miami-Dade County .
Mucarsel-Powell has a significant cash advantage but the area is awash with national political ads , making this race as much about broader trends as local issues .
Anthony Brindisi , D-N.Y. — Brindisi is another freshman Democrat running for re-election in Trump country .
This is also another rematch .
Brindisi is facing former Rep. Claudia Tenney who he defeated in 2018 in a New York District went for Trump by 15 points in 2016 .
Trump remains popular here and his influence could help Tenney 's chances at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ D-Calif. — It is a big year for rematches and Cox is one of them .
He 's running against former Rep. GOP David Valadao , who he narrowly defeated in a dramatic race in 2018 .
Cox was part of a major push by Democrats in 2018 to take over a string of GOP-held districts in Southern California .
Cox initially planned to challenge a different GOP House member , Jeff Denham , but switched to run against Valadao .
Valadao initially declared victory after the Associated Press called the race in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and eventually won several weeks later after mail-in-ballots were counted .
Polling here is slim but Valadao led Cox in at least one early poll .
Jeff Van Drew , R-N.J. — Van Drew won this seat as a Democrat in 2018 only to switch parties in December 2019 in opposition to impeaching President Trump .
Democrats think they can win again with the message that Van Drew put himself ahead of his constituents .
His opponent Amy Kennedy , wife of former Rhode Island Rep. Patrick Kennedy , has been raising lots @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ahead in the race .
Don Bacon , R-Nebraska — This is another rematch as Bacon faces Kara Eastman , a Democrat who he narrowly defeated in 2018 .
Eastman has benefitted from significant support from national Democrats and this district has been polling in favor of Joe Biden for President .
Mike Garcia , R-Calif. — Garcia won this seat in a special election in May to replace Democrat Katie Hill who resigned amid personal controversy last fall .
Garcia won that special election but California Democrats are expected to show up @ @ @ @ @ @ @ particularly with California Sen. Kamala Harris on the ticket as Joe Biden 's vice presidential running mate .
Open Seat in Va.5 , — Once purple Virginia has been on a steady march towards Democrats for several years and many see this seat as a chance for them to solidify their hold on the state .
Incumbent GOP Rep. Denver Riggleman lost his primary bid to conservative challenger Bob Good , an associate athletic director at the conservative religious school Liberty University .
Good is facing Democrat Cameron Webb , a political newcomer @ @ @ @ @ @ @ House Fellow under both Presidents Obama and Trump .
House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer , D-Md.
, told reporters this week that a win for Democrats in this race , which could come from one of the states with an earlier poll closing time , is considered a sign of a potential blue wave in the country .
Open Seat in Texas 22 — Democrats have invested big in Texas this cycle and they hope to win seats in suburban areas , like this district outside of Houston .
Democrat Sri Preston Kulkarni @ @ @ @ @ @ @ candidates .
Kulkarni has polled narrowly ahead and has been endorsed by by the Houston Chronicle and Joe Biden .
A pick up here would give hope to the long-time dream for Democrats of turning Texas blue .

10 House Races To Watch
Enlarge this image toggle caption Mark Tenally/AP Mark Tenally/AP
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., leads a 232-to-197 Democratic majority in the House heading into the election. There are five current vacancies and one
Libertarian, former Republican Justin Amash, R-Mich., who left the party in 2019 in a clash over his plan to vote to impeach President Trump.
Democrats hope to keep, and possibly expand, their House majority in 2020 by riding a rush of anti-Trump sentiment surging in cities and suburbs across the country. Recent polls have prompted political analysts to shift a number of close House races in favor of Democrats, who have sustained a significant cash advantage this election cycle.
Republicans hope to win back some seats in 2020 by targeting the 30 Democrats representing districts where Trump won in 2016. Of those seats, 22 are held by freshmen Democrats who were part of the 2018 midterm wave that swept Democrats into power in the House.
Five top targets for Republicans:
Collin Peterson, D-Minn. — Peterson is one of the most conservative House
Democrats and has often faced difficult political challenges. He is the chairman of the House Agriculture Committee, a job that carries a lot of weight in his farm-heavy district. But the area has grown increasingly Republican, with Trump winning 62% of the vote in 2016. Peterson has walked a fine line in attempt to fit his constituents. He voted against impeaching Trump but has voted with Democrats on most major bills.
Xochitl Torres Small, D-N.M. — It's a 2018 rematch in New Mexico. Torres Small is again facing former state Rep. Yvette Herrell, who she narrowly defeated by less than 4,000 votes. Polling in this district is slim but Trump won here by 10 points in 2016. Republicans have tried to tie Torres Small to more liberal Democrats and the Green New Deal.
Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, D-Fla. — Florida is always a major battleground in a presidential election and this swingy Miami-area district may be one of the hottest contests in the state. Mucarsel-Powell defeated Republican Carlos Curbelo in 2018, winning just 51% of the vote. Curbelo was a frequent Trump critic when he was in Congress but he could not outrun the Democratic wave. Mucarsel-Powell now faces Carlos Gimenez, the popular Republican mayor of Miami-Dade County. Mucarsel-Powell has a significant cash advantage but the area is awash with national political ads, making this race as much about broader trends as local issues.
Anthony Brindisi, D-N.Y. — Brindisi is another freshman Democrat running for reelection in Trump country. This is also another rematch. Brindisi is facing former Rep. Claudia Tenney, who he defeated in 2018 in a New York District went for Trump by 15 points in 2016. Trump remains popular here and his influence could help Tenney's chances at regaining her seat.
TJ Cox, D-Calif. — It is a big year for rematches and Cox is one of them. He's running against former Rep. GOP David Valadao, who he narrowly defeated in a dramatic race in 2018. Cox was part of a major push by Democrats in 2018 to take over a string of GOP-held districts in Southern California. Cox initially planned to challenge a different GOP House member, Jeff Denham, but switched to run against Valadao.
Valadao initially declared victory after the Associated Press called the race in his favor but Cox took the lead and eventually won several weeks later after mail-in-ballots were counted. Polling here is slim but Valadao led Cox in at least one early poll.
Five top targets for Democrats:
Jeff Van Drew, R-N.J. — Van Drew won this seat as a Democrat in 2018 only to switch parties in December 2019 in opposition to impeaching Trump. Democrats think they can win again with the message that Van Drew put himself ahead of his constituents. His opponent Amy Kennedy, wife of former Rhode Island Rep. Patrick Kennedy, has been raising lots of money and recent polls show her ahead in the race.
Don Bacon, R-Neb. — This is another rematch as Bacon faces Kara Eastman, a Democrat who he narrowly defeated in 2018. Eastman has benefitted from significant support from national Democrats and this district has been polling in favor of Joe Biden for president.
Mike Garcia, R-Calif. — Garcia won this seat in a special election in May to replace Democrat Katie Hill who resigned amid personal controversy last fall. Garcia won that special election but California Democrats are expected to show up in droves in this presidential year, particularly with California Sen. Kamala Harris on the ticket as Biden's vice presidential running mate.
Open Seat in Va. 5 — Once purple Virginia has been on a steady march towards Democrats for several years and many see this seat as a chance for them to solidify their hold on the state. Incumbent GOP Rep. Denver Riggleman lost his primary bid to conservative challenger Bob Good, an associate athletic director at the conservative religious school Liberty University. Good is facing Democrat Cameron Webb, a political newcomer and physician who served as a White House Fellow under both Presidents Obama and Trump.
House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, D-Md., told reporters this week that a win for Democrats in this race, which could come from one of the states with an earlier poll closing time, is considered a sign of a potential blue wave in the country.
Open Seat in Texas 22 — Democrats have invested big in Texas this cycle and they hope to win seats in suburban areas, like this district outside of Houston. Democrat Sri Preston Kulkarni and Republican Troy Nehls are the top-polling candidates. Kulkarni has polled narrowly ahead and has been endorsed by by the Houston Chronicle and Biden. A pickup here would give hope to the longtime dream for Democrats of turning Texas blue.