npr--2020-10-18--In An Expensive And Partisan Missouri Redistricting Fight, Voters Get The Final Say

In An Expensive And Partisan Missouri Redistricting Fight , Voters Get The Final Say Missourians will experience some déjà vu on Nov. 3 .
That 's because the GOP-controlled state legislature placed a measure on the general election ballot known as Amendment 3 that seeks to undo a state-level redistricting system , widely known as Clean Missouri , that passed with more than 60 % of the vote in 2018 .
The fight is attracting national attention and national money ahead of the 2021 redistricting cycle .
The Clean Missouri system , which risks being undone , seeks to inject @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 's swung dramatically toward Republicans in the last decade .
But foes of Clean Missouri contend the redistricting system that a majority of voters backed is n't about fairness but about helping Democrats .
They also say that the system will lead to strange-looking districts that piece together communities that have little commonality in an attempt to manufacture competitive elections .
`` Along with my colleagues , I 've done my best to express that all of Missouri 's communities matter , '' says state Rep. Dean Plocher , a Republican from St. @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ballot item in the Missouri House .
Supporters of the 2018 plan say Clean Missouri will create a more responsive legislature because lawmakers will have to work harder to get re-elected and are raising sharp questions about whether the new proposals with Amendment 3 will lock in maps with profoundly uncompetitive districts .
`` It 's an amazing collection of bad ideas , '' says Sean Soendker Nicholson , a Democratic political consultant who is leading the campaign to defeat the legislature 's plan .
There are a few important things to note @ @ @ @ @ @ @ districts in Missouri : Neither the legislature 's plan nor Clean Missouri affects congressional redistricting , which the state-level House and Senate members directly vote on every 10 years .
And unlike in states like Illinois , Missouri lawmakers have not had a direct role in drawing state legislative districts in decades .
Before Clean Missouri passed in 2018 , either bipartisan commissions or a panel of appellate judges drew Missouri 's state House and Senate maps .
Since the commission split evenly between Republicans and Democrats frequently deadlocked , judges typically had @ @ @ @ @ @ @ That changed in November 2018 when voters approved Clean Missouri , which gives an appointed demographer much of the power over state legislative redistricting .
The plan includes requirements for the demographer to create maps emphasizing competitiveness and partisan fairness .
And while commissions can overrule the demographer , 7/10ths of the members need to agree on an alternative .
Since Republicans and Democrats in Missouri have very different views of what constitutes advantageous redistricting , that scenario is n't particularly likely .
Supporters of the Clean Missouri system , like Democratic state @ @ @ @ @ @ @ create a more responsive legislature that will think differently on things like health care and education policy .
`` When you have competitive elections , I think you have better-elected people , '' Beck says .
`` I think you have better discussions .
When you have a district that 's 85 % Democratic , what kind of elections are you having ?
And what kind of debate are you having on ideas ? ''
But backers of Amendment 3 say that Clean Missouri is n't about fairness or competitiveness , but about @ @ @ @ @ @ @ state legislative redistricting process .
While some prominent Republicans like former U.S. Sen. John Danforth supported Clean Missouri , many of the state 's political figures have strenuously opposed it and are seeking to repeal it before redistricting starts next year .
Their complaints about the 2018 system are many .
For one thing , they contend the Clean Missouri ballot item was inherently deceptive because it paired redistricting changes and other items like lobbyist gift curtailments in one vote .
Clean Missouri proponents pushed back by saying the redistricting overhaul was discussed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ say the marketing focused heavily on what they derisively called `` ballot candy . ''
`` Because who would n't want to ban lobbyist gifts ?
I would love to ban lobbyists , '' says Republican state Rep. Justin Hill .
`` But you end up voting for one thing , it ends up being 40-something pages — and voila you get a process that 's supposedly 'nonpartisan . '
`` Others say the only way to allow a demographer to produce a more competitive legislative landscape is to draw unwieldy , narrow @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with more Republican terrain .
Lowell Pearson , who was part of a legal team that sued over Clean Missouri in 2018 , predicts that will have negative consequences for lawmakers elected under the system .
`` I worry that if we have these ribbon districts , we 're going to have people in the Missouri House , particularly , but the Senate as well , who do n't have knowledge of most of their constituents ' lives , '' says Pearson , `` and do n't really understand how their constituents would @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The new plan and its pushback The plan the legislature put on the ballot for November would abolish the demographer process put forth in Clean Missouri and instead allow either commissions or appellate judges to draw House and Senate lines .
The Missouri Supreme Court would be empowered to make changes if any final plan runs afoul of the system 's criteria .
Also , competitiveness and partisan fairness are deprioritized and substantially changed under Amendment 3 , and approaches such as compactness are emphasized .
The House and Senate commissions would get @ @ @ @ @ @ @ still require 7/10ths of its members to vote to approve a map .
That could mean if Amendment 3 passes next month , judges could get the final say over what House and Senate maps look like in 2021 when redistricting is due to take place .
The judges who participated in the 2011 process wrote a memo earlier this year detailing how they did n't use political affiliation data when drawing districts .
Amendment 3 critics , though , say that judges have little expertise in redistricting — as evidenced by a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for being unconstitutional .
And because the criteria under Amendment 3 is much different than Clean Missouri , the end result could be maps without a lot of competition .
Democratic lawmakers are also raising alarm bells about language in the proposed amendment that counts eligible voters , as opposed to total population for redistricting .
Meaning , children and non-citizens could be left out of the numbers .
`` To go from total population to only voters ... undoes 231 years of the way it has always been done in the United @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Rep. Jon Carpenter .
`` This is a radical and fundamental change to the democratic process in this country . ''
While it 's not required that mapmakers use the total population standard , Amendment 3 foes say it should n't even be an option .
Voters are n't going to like the fine print , says Sean Soendker Nicholson , the Democratic political consultant who worked on Clean Missouri .
`` What they 've put forward in the form of Amendment 3 is a rather audacious effort to not only undo all @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to create a redistricting system that 's unlike anything that Missouri has ever seen , '' Nicholson says .
`` It 's unlike anything in the United States in a couple of key respects . ''
Amendment 3 foes are also honing in on the idea that lawmakers are trying to undo the will of the voters from two years ago .
`` It 's shameful .
It 's a disgrace , '' says Democratic state Rep. LaDonna Appelbaum .
`` We should be working on a bipartisan plan to help Missourians , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Some Black political figures opposed Clean Missouri in 2018 because they said the language would n't prevent a scenario where the percentage of Black residents in House and Senate districts get reduced — making it easier for white candidates to win .
But many Black elected officials oppose the 2020 plan , including state Rep. Kevin Windham Jr. '' Even when they had the opportunity to engage with Black legislators , that obviously was n't a priority , '' Windham says .
The campaign against the legislature 's redistricting plan has been successful @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and Democratic-leaning nonprofit groups .
That includes $ 500,000 from the National Education Association and $ 1 million for the North Fund , a Democratic-leaning political nonprofit that does n't have to disclose its donors .
The `` no '' on Amendment 3 campaign also received $ 250,000 from the National Redistricting Action Fund .
That group , which is headed up by former Attorney General Eric Holder , seeks to enhance Democratic redistricting efforts across the country .
Nicholson says the North Fund shares `` our commitment to the values of fair @ @ @ @ @ @ @ `` We 've been working for literally years now to build a big coalition for a redistricting system that 's fair to voters and that makes sure that voters have a functional choice in who represents them , '' Nicholson says .
`` We raised money because campaigns are expensive .
The campaign has received support from a lot of organizations . ''
And there 's a reason for those Clean Missouri proponents to be vigilant : A summary of the initiative that voters will see on their ballots details those marginal changes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ gifts before mentioning the redistricting overhaul .
Opponents of the new redistricting plan fear Missourians will think they 're voting on an ethics overhaul , as opposed to mapmaking changes .
That 's likely one of the reasons why they 're running ads showcasing how the changes to lobbyist gift limits would be ineffectual .
In addition to pointing out the deficiencies of the legislature 's plan , Nicholson says his group is making the case that Clean Missouri is a better way of approaching the highly contentious redistricting process .
`` This @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that there is more competition , that protects against trying to do bad things in the future , '' Nicholson says .

In An Expensive And Partisan Missouri Redistricting Fight, Voters Get The Final Say
Enlarge this image toggle caption Michael B. Thomas/Getty Images Michael B. Thomas/Getty Images
Missourians will experience some déjà vu on Nov. 3.
That's because the GOP-controlled state legislature placed a measure on the general election ballot known as Amendment 3 that seeks to undo a state-level redistricting system, widely known as Clean Missouri, that passed with more than 60% of the vote in 2018. The fight is attracting national attention and national money ahead of the 2021 redistricting cycle.
The Clean Missouri system, which risks being undone, seeks to inject more competitiveness into a state legislature that's swung dramatically toward Republicans in the last decade. But foes of Clean Missouri contend the redistricting system that a majority of voters backed isn't about fairness but about helping Democrats. They also say that the system will lead to strange-looking districts that piece together communities that have little commonality in an attempt to manufacture competitive elections.
"Along with my colleagues, I've done my best to express that all of Missouri's communities matter," says state Rep. Dean Plocher, a Republican from St. Louis County who pushed the 2020 redistricting ballot item in the Missouri House.
Supporters of the 2018 plan say Clean Missouri will create a more responsive legislature because lawmakers will have to work harder to get re-elected and are raising sharp questions about whether the new proposals with Amendment 3 will lock in maps with profoundly uncompetitive districts.
"It's an amazing collection of bad ideas," says Sean Soendker Nicholson, a Democratic political consultant who is leading the campaign to defeat the legislature's plan.
Two-year battle
There are a few important things to note about the redistricting debate around state legislative districts in Missouri: Neither the legislature's plan nor Clean Missouri affects congressional redistricting, which the state-level House and Senate members directly vote on every 10 years. And unlike in states like Illinois, Missouri lawmakers have not had a direct role in drawing state legislative districts in decades.
Before Clean Missouri passed in 2018, either bipartisan commissions or a panel of appellate judges drew Missouri's state House and Senate maps. Since the commission split evenly between Republicans and Democrats frequently deadlocked, judges typically had the final say in the process.
That changed in November 2018 when voters approved Clean Missouri, which gives an appointed demographer much of the power over state legislative redistricting. The plan includes requirements for the demographer to create maps emphasizing competitiveness and partisan fairness. And while commissions can overrule the demographer, 7/10ths of the members need to agree on an alternative. Since Republicans and Democrats in Missouri have very different views of what constitutes advantageous redistricting, that scenario isn't particularly likely.
Supporters of the Clean Missouri system, like Democratic state Rep. Doug Beck, believe it will create a more responsive legislature that will think differently on things like health care and education policy.
"When you have competitive elections, I think you have better-elected people," Beck says. "I think you have better discussions. When you have a district that's 85% Democratic, what kind of elections are you having? And what kind of debate are you having on ideas?"
But backers of Amendment 3 say that Clean Missouri isn't about fairness or competitiveness, but about giving Democrats a leg up in the state legislative redistricting process. While some prominent Republicans like former U.S. Sen. John Danforth supported Clean Missouri, many of the state's political figures have strenuously opposed it and are seeking to repeal it before redistricting starts next year.
Enlarge this image toggle caption Jeff Roberson/AP Jeff Roberson/AP
Their complaints about the 2018 system are many. For one thing, they contend the Clean Missouri ballot item was inherently deceptive because it paired redistricting changes and other items like lobbyist gift curtailments in one vote. Clean Missouri proponents pushed back by saying the redistricting overhaul was discussed extensively in local media outlets, detractors say the marketing focused heavily on what they derisively called "ballot candy."
"Because who wouldn't want to ban lobbyist gifts? I would love to ban lobbyists," says Republican state Rep. Justin Hill. "But you end up voting for one thing, it ends up being 40-something pages — and voila you get a process that's supposedly 'nonpartisan.' "
Others say the only way to allow a demographer to produce a more competitive legislative landscape is to draw unwieldy, narrow districts that piece together Democratic-leaning urban areas with more Republican terrain.
Lowell Pearson, who was part of a legal team that sued over Clean Missouri in 2018, predicts that will have negative consequences for lawmakers elected under the system.
"I worry that if we have these ribbon districts, we're going to have people in the Missouri House, particularly, but the Senate as well, who don't have knowledge of most of their constituents' lives," says Pearson, "and don't really understand how their constituents would have them vote on bills."
The new plan and its pushback
The plan the legislature put on the ballot for November would abolish the demographer process put forth in Clean Missouri and instead allow either commissions or appellate judges to draw House and Senate lines. The Missouri Supreme Court would be empowered to make changes if any final plan runs afoul of the system's criteria. Also, competitiveness and partisan fairness are deprioritized and substantially changed under Amendment 3, and approaches such as compactness are emphasized.
The House and Senate commissions would get larger under the proposed legislative plan but still require 7/10ths of its members to vote to approve a map. That could mean if Amendment 3 passes next month, judges could get the final say over what House and Senate maps look like in 2021 when redistricting is due to take place.
The judges who participated in the 2011 process wrote a memo earlier this year detailing how they didn't use political affiliation data when drawing districts.
Amendment 3 critics, though, say that judges have little expertise in redistricting — as evidenced by a 2011 Senate map that was struck down for being unconstitutional. And because the criteria under Amendment 3 is much different than Clean Missouri, the end result could be maps without a lot of competition.
Democratic lawmakers are also raising alarm bells about language in the proposed amendment that counts eligible voters, as opposed to total population for redistricting. Meaning, children and non-citizens could be left out of the numbers.
"To go from total population to only voters ... undoes 231 years of the way it has always been done in the United States of America," says state Rep. Jon Carpenter. "This is a radical and fundamental change to the democratic process in this country."
While it's not required that mapmakers use the total population standard, Amendment 3 foes say it shouldn't even be an option.
Voters aren't going to like the fine print, says Sean Soendker Nicholson, the Democratic political consultant who worked on Clean Missouri. "What they've put forward in the form of Amendment 3 is a rather audacious effort to not only undo all of the reforms that voters passed but to create a redistricting system that's unlike anything that Missouri has ever seen," Nicholson says. "It's unlike anything in the United States in a couple of key respects."
Amendment 3 foes are also honing in on the idea that lawmakers are trying to undo the will of the voters from two years ago.
"It's shameful. It's a disgrace," says Democratic state Rep. LaDonna Appelbaum. "We should be working on a bipartisan plan to help Missourians, not take their will away."
Some Black political figures opposed Clean Missouri in 2018 because they said the language wouldn't prevent a scenario where the percentage of Black residents in House and Senate districts get reduced — making it easier for white candidates to win. But many Black elected officials oppose the 2020 plan, including state Rep. Kevin Windham Jr.
"Even when they had the opportunity to engage with Black legislators, that obviously wasn't a priority," Windham says.
The expensive fight
The campaign against the legislature's redistricting plan has been successful at collecting six-figure checks from labor unions and Democratic-leaning nonprofit groups. That includes $500,000 from the National Education Association and $1 million for the North Fund, a Democratic-leaning political nonprofit that doesn't have to disclose its donors.
The "no" on Amendment 3 campaign also received $250,000 from the National Redistricting Action Fund. That group, which is headed up by former Attorney General Eric Holder, seeks to enhance Democratic redistricting efforts across the country.
Nicholson says the North Fund shares "our commitment to the values of fair redistricting that puts voters first."
"We've been working for literally years now to build a big coalition for a redistricting system that's fair to voters and that makes sure that voters have a functional choice in who represents them," Nicholson says. "We raised money because campaigns are expensive. The campaign has received support from a lot of organizations."
And there's a reason for those Clean Missouri proponents to be vigilant: A summary of the initiative that voters will see on their ballots details those marginal changes to limits on campaign donations and lobbyist gifts before mentioning the redistricting overhaul. Opponents of the new redistricting plan fear Missourians will think they're voting on an ethics overhaul, as opposed to mapmaking changes. That's likely one of the reasons why they're running ads showcasing how the changes to lobbyist gift limits would be ineffectual.
In addition to pointing out the deficiencies of the legislature's plan, Nicholson says his group is making the case that Clean Missouri is a better way of approaching the highly contentious redistricting process.
"This is a better way that makes sure that there is more competition, that protects against trying to do bad things in the future," Nicholson says.


npr--2020-10-18--Undisclosed: Most Homebuyers And Renters Aren't Warned About Flood Or Wildfire Risk

Undisclosed : Most Homebuyers And Renters Are n't Warned About Flood Or Wildfire Risk Each family had their reasons for ending up in harm 's way .
For the Harts , it was the chance to have a large backyard in a quiet part of Ashland , Ore .
The porch of the Baltimore house was perfect for Scott Harris ' barbecue equipment .
Kevin Boudreaux had grown up on the bayou and wanted to settle near his childhood home in Cameron , La .
Like millions of people every year who move , the families had access to a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ schools to public transit to lead paint .
What they never learned , until it was too late , was that their homes all were in areas that are increasingly prone to flooding or wildfires .
None of the landlords , real estate agents , sellers , appraisers , bankers or home inspectors the families interacted with explained the risk of flooding or wildfires , because no one had to do so .
Only about half of the states require that information about flood risk be disclosed to homebuyers , and just one @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to tenants .
Only two Western states require disclosure of wildfire risk .
What 's more , a growing body of research suggests that the flood and fire disclosure laws that do exist provide information in confusing ways or give too little information too late in the homebuying process .
That has led millions of people to bet their safety , their belongings and , in many cases , their financial futures on homes and apartments that are likely to be damaged or destroyed .
About 15 million properties , including both residences @ @ @ @ @ @ @ risk for flooding , and 4.5 million homes are at significant risk from wildfires .
This year alone , Hurricane Laura inflicted at least $ 8 billion in damage to southwest Louisiana , and record-setting wildfires in California destroyed more than 9,200 structures .
Numbers such as those will grow as climate change makes the Earth hotter , and floods and fires get more frequent and severe .
Every American pays the price for the lack of information , whether or not they have been directly affected by a flood or wildfire .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ that exceed $ 1 billion in damage has exploded in recent years .
Between 2015 and this September , there were 28 such disasters .
Taxpayers foot the bill directly when the federal government pays out billions of dollars in disaster relief .
Still , those who live in harm 's way pay the highest price .
Disaster assistance from the Federal Emergency Management Agency tends to help the affluent disproportionately , widening existing racial wealth gaps .
Even if homeowners and renters have insurance against disasters , it is often not enough @ @ @ @ @ @ @ losses Americans suffer from floods and wildfires extend far beyond the financial , from lives lost to the toll on people 's physical and mental health that can last for years .
`` I liken it to a game of hot potato , and whoever ends up with that potato is going to end up owning and paying for the risk , '' says Alice Hill , who led disaster planning at the National Security Council under President Barack Obama .
Hill argues that it should be the federal government 's job to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ properties , so that Americans can make informed choices about where to live .
Right now , she warns , millions of unsuspecting families do n't realize they 're living on the front lines of climate change and might pay heavily for it .
Wildfires did n't cross Christopher Hart 's mind when he bought his home near Ashland , Ore. , seven years ago .
It 's in a suburban neighborhood near a major freeway , not tucked into the heavily forested hills where fires have historically spread .
`` It never @ @ @ @ @ @ @ would take out my home and hundreds of other people 's homes in a span of 12 hours , '' Hart says .
He was at work in early September when his wife got an alert that the Almeda Fire had broken out nearby .
She and their 10-year-old daughter jumped into the car .
`` The flames were already coming into our yard , '' Hart says .
`` They sped away , and she said she could see flames in the rearview mirror . ''
Their home had been a `` @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fruit trees in the backyard .
In the debris pile that remains , they have n't been able to find family photos or mementos from his grandmother .
They did find a mug , somewhat charred , with the words `` cup of happy '' written on the side .
They 're now in the process of negotiating with their insurance company .
Many people still picture forest fires when they think of wildfire .
But in recent years , fires have leapt from wildlands and into dense suburban neighborhoods where residents never @ @ @ @ @ @ @ West , most landscapes are primed to burn and are becoming increasingly risky in a warming climate .
But only a handful of states actually map that risk , leaving most residents there in the dark .
Scott Harris found out he was living in a flood-prone area in 2018 — during a flash flood .
By that point , Harris and his family had been living in their Baltimore home for 12 years .
`` We had no idea at all that there was even a concern about a flood plain , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ his block had flooded at least six times since the 1970s .
But there was no way for Harris to know that .
In Maryland , as in most states , there is no requirement to tell potential homebuyers about past flooding .
The only information Harris would have received is if his house was in an official flood plain .
But even that designation does not accurately convey future flood risk in many places because the flood maps do n't take into account sea level rise or the growing threat of extreme @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in 21 states , including some on the front lines of climate-driven flooding , such as Massachusetts and Florida , there are no flood risk disclosure requirements at all .
The lack of information is a particular problem in places that are n't near obvious bodies of water .
As in many flood-prone urban areas , the creek in Harris ' neighborhood is in a pipe under the road .
In the end , the 2018 floodwaters stopped in Harris ' yard and , luckily , did n't damage his home or any @ @ @ @ @ @ @ his side business as a caterer .
But his family is still affected by the flood risk .
Now that they know they live in a flood zone , they have to pay for expensive flood insurance .
He says it costs about $ 1,200 per year — a big expense that came out of nowhere .
`` I 'm bent over a barrel , '' Harris says of the insurance costs .
`` I ca n't do anything else about it . ''
So , what if people had more information about @ @ @ @ @ @ @ they stop choosing to live in places that burn and flood ?
California and Louisiana — two states on the front lines of climate change — offer some answers , although even their disclosure laws do not effectively warn many people about floods and fire .
Two weeks after fleeing their home , Thea Kendall-Osborne and Kelvin Osborne pulled up their driveway to see what remained after the fast-moving Glass Fire hit California 's Napa Valley .
Four bright blue Adirondack chairs sit serenely on the lawn .
Behind those , their two-story @ @ @ @ @ @ @ `` The heat must have been intense , '' Osborne says , sifting through piles of drywall .
`` There 's stuff that 's just melted together . ''
Kendall-Osborne lingers next to a burned-out car frame , the remnants of a prized '65 Mustang that belonged to her father .
Growing up in Southern California , Kendall-Osborne knew about wildfires .
But after two decades of living elsewhere , it was n't on her mind while she and her husband were looking for a house in Napa Valley .
`` It did @ @ @ @ @ @ @ she says .
`` We literally got here in 2017 , and two weeks later we had to evacuate because all of Napa was on fire .
It was just like : This is not good . ''
In the hundreds of pages the couple received when they bought their home , a few sentences on a one-page form mentioned wildfire .
Where they live , properties are labeled as potentially having `` substantial forest fire risks and hazards . ''
That form makes California one of only two states in the West @ @ @ @ @ @ @ about the wildfire risk they 're taking on .
Oregon 's disclosure does n't mention wildfires , only that a home is in the `` forestland-urban interface . ''
In California , being in a high-risk zone requires homeowners to clear flammable brush and vegetation , rules that are unevenly enforced .
Increasingly widespread and frequent wildfires and floods have led some residents in other states to demand more information about climate-related risks to their homes .
Virginia 's Legislature has considered two bills that would require flood disclosure , both of which @ @ @ @ @ @ @ similar bill pending in New York .
In California , starting next year , sellers must tell buyers if they 're in compliance with vegetation-clearing rules and share a list of home retrofits to make houses more fire-resistant .
The Texas Legislature passed a law after Hurricane Harvey hit the state in 2017 requiring that buyers be informed if a house has flooded in the past , if it is in a flood plain or has flood insurance .
The law does not require that tenants receive the same information , however , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ city of Houston to pass its own law covering those who rent .
Meanwhile , efforts to require flood risk disclosure as part of all real estate transactions nationwide have stalled in Congress .
Still , many disaster experts say flood and fire information is easily overlooked in a large stack of legal documents buyers must review .
It may also be coming too late , after a buyer has already decided to move ahead with the purchase and put down a deposit .
To help homeowners prepare for wildfires and floods , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the home shopping process .
Louisiana has the most comprehensive flood disclosure law in the country : Prospective buyers must be told whether a home is in a designated flood zone , whether it has flood insurance and how much that insurance costs .
And they get the information relatively early in the process , so they can factor it into their decision .
It 's not a perfect law — it 's still all but impossible to find out whether a house flooded before the current owners lived there , and how @ @ @ @ @ @ @ affect future flood risk .
But a study by the National Bureau of Economic Research home prices suggests that Louisiana residents are factoring flood risk into their housing decisions more than other Americans .
Still , for many families , the benefits of living in a flood-prone place outweigh the risks .
Kevin Boudreaux grew up in Cameron Parish , La.
, on the Gulf of Mexico .
The area is flat and marshy , and sea level rise threatens to swamp what little dry land exists .
Kevin and his wife , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ flood-prone place .
Their home was destroyed by hurricane storm surge in 2004 .
They rebuilt it on stilts .
The house was damaged again by storm surge in 2008 , and they repaired it again .
The frequent floods have led a lot of people to leave Cameron Parish .
Between 2000 and 2010 , the population fell by about one-third .
Many of those who remain are short-term oil and gas workers .
Others are retirees looking for an ocean view .
The Boudreauxs are part of a third group : @ @ @ @ @ @ @ place to leave .
In August , Hurricane Laura pushed an estimated 17 feet of ocean water into Cameron Parish .
The Boudreauxs ' house survived the deluge , but the storm scraped the neighbors ' houses clean off their concrete foundations and washed away the Boudreauxs ' lumber store and recreational vehicle park .
A month later , it was clear that the lumber store was a total loss , and they were focused on fixing the damage at the RV park .
`` It 's our only income , '' Susan @ @ @ @ @ @ @ leaky water pipe .
Their plan is to get the park up and running and hope that their tenants — workers at a new natural gas facility — return quickly .
Asked whether she 's ever considered moving somewhere with less flood risk , she laughs .
`` We 've never lived anywhere else , '' she says .
`` Kevin grew up right over there . ''
She points across the street , past a line of uprooted trees .
`` I tell everybody , my roots are deep , '' she @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ?
This is home . ''

Undisclosed: Most Homebuyers And Renters Aren't Warned About Flood Or Wildfire Risk
Enlarge this image toggle caption Ryan Kellman/NPR Ryan Kellman/NPR
Each family had their reasons for ending up in harm's way.
For the Harts, it was the chance to have a large backyard in a quiet part of Ashland, Ore. The porch of the Baltimore house was perfect for Scott Harris' barbecue equipment. Kevin Boudreaux had grown up on the bayou and wanted to settle near his childhood home in Cameron, La.
Like millions of people every year who move, the families had access to a wide variety of information about everything from schools to public transit to lead paint. What they never learned, until it was too late, was that their homes all were in areas that are increasingly prone to flooding or wildfires.
None of the landlords, real estate agents, sellers, appraisers, bankers or home inspectors the families interacted with explained the risk of flooding or wildfires, because no one had to do so. Only about half of the states require that information about flood risk be disclosed to homebuyers, and just one state requires that such information be given to tenants. Only two Western states require disclosure of wildfire risk.
What's more, a growing body of research suggests that the flood and fire disclosure laws that do exist provide information in confusing ways or give too little information too late in the homebuying process.
That has led millions of people to bet their safety, their belongings and, in many cases, their financial futures on homes and apartments that are likely to be damaged or destroyed.
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About 15 million properties, including both residences and commercial buildings, are at significant risk for flooding, and 4.5 million homes are at significant risk from wildfires. This year alone, Hurricane Laura inflicted at least $8 billion in damage to southwest Louisiana, and record-setting wildfires in California destroyed more than 9,200 structures. Numbers such as those will grow as climate change makes the Earth hotter, and floods and fires get more frequent and severe.
Every American pays the price for the lack of information, whether or not they have been directly affected by a flood or wildfire. The annual number of floods and wildfires that exceed $1 billion in damage has exploded in recent years. Between 2015 and this September, there were 28 such disasters. Taxpayers foot the bill directly when the federal government pays out billions of dollars in disaster relief.
Still, those who live in harm's way pay the highest price. Disaster assistance from the Federal Emergency Management Agency tends to help the affluent disproportionately, widening existing racial wealth gaps. Even if homeowners and renters have insurance against disasters, it is often not enough to make them whole. And the losses Americans suffer from floods and wildfires extend far beyond the financial, from lives lost to the toll on people's physical and mental health that can last for years.
"I liken it to a game of hot potato, and whoever ends up with that potato is going to end up owning and paying for the risk," says Alice Hill, who led disaster planning at the National Security Council under President Barack Obama. Hill argues that it should be the federal government's job to disclose flood and fire risk for residential properties, so that Americans can make informed choices about where to live.
Right now, she warns, millions of unsuspecting families don't realize they're living on the front lines of climate change and might pay heavily for it.
toggle caption Christopher Hart
Wildfires didn't cross Christopher Hart's mind when he bought his home near Ashland, Ore., seven years ago. It's in a suburban neighborhood near a major freeway, not tucked into the heavily forested hills where fires have historically spread.
"It never occurred to me that a grass fire would take out my home and hundreds of other people's homes in a span of 12 hours," Hart says.
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He was at work in early September when his wife got an alert that the Almeda Fire had broken out nearby. She and their 10-year-old daughter jumped into the car. "The flames were already coming into our yard," Hart says. "They sped away, and she said she could see flames in the rearview mirror."
Their home had been a "labor of love," with lush fruit trees in the backyard. In the debris pile that remains, they haven't been able to find family photos or mementos from his grandmother. They did find a mug, somewhat charred, with the words "cup of happy" written on the side. They're now in the process of negotiating with their insurance company.
Many people still picture forest fires when they think of wildfire. But in recent years, fires have leapt from wildlands and into dense suburban neighborhoods where residents never considered them a threat. In the West, most landscapes are primed to burn and are becoming increasingly risky in a warming climate. But only a handful of states actually map that risk, leaving most residents there in the dark.
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Scott Harris found out he was living in a flood-prone area in 2018 — during a flash flood. By that point, Harris and his family had been living in their Baltimore home for 12 years. "We had no idea at all that there was even a concern about a flood plain," he says.
In fact, his block had flooded at least six times since the 1970s. But there was no way for Harris to know that. In Maryland, as in most states, there is no requirement to tell potential homebuyers about past flooding. The only information Harris would have received is if his house was in an official flood plain. But even that designation does not accurately convey future flood risk in many places because the flood maps don't take into account sea level rise or the growing threat of extreme rain due to climate change.
And in 21 states, including some on the front lines of climate-driven flooding, such as Massachusetts and Florida, there are no flood risk disclosure requirements at all.
The lack of information is a particular problem in places that aren't near obvious bodies of water. As in many flood-prone urban areas, the creek in Harris' neighborhood is in a pipe under the road.
toggle caption Ryan Kellman/NPR
In the end, the 2018 floodwaters stopped in Harris' yard and, luckily, didn't damage his home or any of the barbecue equipment he uses for his side business as a caterer. But his family is still affected by the flood risk. Now that they know they live in a flood zone, they have to pay for expensive flood insurance. He says it costs about $1,200 per year — a big expense that came out of nowhere. "I'm bent over a barrel," Harris says of the insurance costs. "I can't do anything else about it."
Notes A flash flood carries away cars near Harris’ house in Baltimore in 2018.
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So, what if people had more information about climate hazards before they moved? Would they stop choosing to live in places that burn and flood?
California and Louisiana — two states on the front lines of climate change — offer some answers, although even their disclosure laws do not effectively warn many people about floods and fire.
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Two weeks after fleeing their home, Thea Kendall-Osborne and Kelvin Osborne pulled up their driveway to see what remained after the fast-moving Glass Fire hit California's Napa Valley.
Four bright blue Adirondack chairs sit serenely on the lawn. Behind those, their two-story house is burned to the ground.
"The heat must have been intense," Osborne says, sifting through piles of drywall. "There's stuff that's just melted together." Kendall-Osborne lingers next to a burned-out car frame, the remnants of a prized '65 Mustang that belonged to her father.
Growing up in Southern California, Kendall-Osborne knew about wildfires. But after two decades of living elsewhere, it wasn't on her mind while she and her husband were looking for a house in Napa Valley.
"It didn't even occur to us," she says. "We literally got here in 2017, and two weeks later we had to evacuate because all of Napa was on fire. It was just like: This is not good."
Enlarge this image toggle caption Jessica Christian/San Francisco Chronicle via Getty Images Jessica Christian/San Francisco Chronicle via Getty Images
In the hundreds of pages the couple received when they bought their home, a few sentences on a one-page form mentioned wildfire. Where they live, properties are labeled as potentially having "substantial forest fire risks and hazards."
That form makes California one of only two states in the West with any legal requirements to notify buyers about the wildfire risk they're taking on. Oregon's disclosure doesn't mention wildfires, only that a home is in the "forestland-urban interface." In California, being in a high-risk zone requires homeowners to clear flammable brush and vegetation, rules that are unevenly enforced.
toggle caption Lauren Sommer/NPR
Increasingly widespread and frequent wildfires and floods have led some residents in other states to demand more information about climate-related risks to their homes. Virginia's Legislature has considered two bills that would require flood disclosure, both of which have failed, and there's a similar bill pending in New York.
In California, starting next year, sellers must tell buyers if they're in compliance with vegetation-clearing rules and share a list of home retrofits to make houses more fire-resistant.
The Texas Legislature passed a law after Hurricane Harvey hit the state in 2017 requiring that buyers be informed if a house has flooded in the past, if it is in a flood plain or has flood insurance. The law does not require that tenants receive the same information, however, and some residents are pushing for the city of Houston to pass its own law covering those who rent.
Meanwhile, efforts to require flood risk disclosure as part of all real estate transactions nationwide have stalled in Congress.
Still, many disaster experts say flood and fire information is easily overlooked in a large stack of legal documents buyers must review. It may also be coming too late, after a buyer has already decided to move ahead with the purchase and put down a deposit. To help homeowners prepare for wildfires and floods, outreach may need to happen earlier in the home shopping process.
Louisiana has the most comprehensive flood disclosure law in the country: Prospective buyers must be told whether a home is in a designated flood zone, whether it has flood insurance and how much that insurance costs. And they get the information relatively early in the process, so they can factor it into their decision.
toggle caption Ryan Kellman/NPR
toggle caption Ryan Kellman/NPR
It's not a perfect law — it's still all but impossible to find out whether a house flooded before the current owners lived there, and how rising seas and more intense rain might affect future flood risk. But a study by the National Bureau of Economic Research home prices suggests that Louisiana residents are factoring flood risk into their housing decisions more than other Americans.
Still, for many families, the benefits of living in a flood-prone place outweigh the risks.
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toggle caption Ryan Kellman/NPR
Kevin Boudreaux grew up in Cameron Parish, La., on the Gulf of Mexico. The area is flat and marshy, and sea level rise threatens to swamp what little dry land exists.
Kevin and his wife, Susan, understand they live in a flood-prone place. Their home was destroyed by hurricane storm surge in 2004. They rebuilt it on stilts. The house was damaged again by storm surge in 2008, and they repaired it again.
toggle caption Ryan Kellman/NPR
The frequent floods have led a lot of people to leave Cameron Parish. Between 2000 and 2010, the population fell by about one-third. Many of those who remain are short-term oil and gas workers. Others are retirees looking for an ocean view. The Boudreauxs are part of a third group: people who are too attached to the place to leave.
In August, Hurricane Laura pushed an estimated 17 feet of ocean water into Cameron Parish. The Boudreauxs' house survived the deluge, but the storm scraped the neighbors' houses clean off their concrete foundations and washed away the Boudreauxs' lumber store and recreational vehicle park.
A month later, it was clear that the lumber store was a total loss, and they were focused on fixing the damage at the RV park. "It's our only income," Susan Boudreaux says as she wrestles with a leaky water pipe.
Their plan is to get the park up and running and hope that their tenants — workers at a new natural gas facility — return quickly.
Asked whether she's ever considered moving somewhere with less flood risk, she laughs. "We've never lived anywhere else," she says. "Kevin grew up right over there."
She points across the street, past a line of uprooted trees. "I tell everybody, my roots are deep," she says. "Where would we go? This is home."


npr--2020-10-18--The Consequences Of Dehumanizing Language In Politics

The Consequences Of Dehumanizing Language In Politics United States politicians are no strangers to using unkind language against their opponents .
It 's a trend that dates back to at least 1800 when , during the presidential campaign , Thomas Jefferson hired James Callender to slime John Adams .
But Alexander Theodoridis , who teaches political science at the University of Massachusetts Amherst , says that today 's partisanship can lend itself to particularly dehumanizing language not only between political opponents , but also between regular Americans who belong to opposite political parties .
Theodoridis told NPR 's Weekend Edition @ @ @ @ @ @ @ includes people referring to others as animals , can lead to people believing that those who disagree with them do n't deserve the same treatment or respect as those who agree with them .
`` That is often where things lead , '' he said .
`` As either a justification post hoc for treating somebody differently or , in some cases , a precursor to treating a group differently . ''
One fear is that this kind of dehumanization leads to violence .
Another is that it leads people to believe in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ they disagree with .
Theodoridis says while both Democrats and Republicans use this kind of language , Republicans tend to believe conspiracy theories like QAnon more easily .
`` I think part of that is just the composition of the parties , '' Theodoridis said .
`` One feature of the sorting that has happened in terms of who is a Democrat and who is a Republican , there is this sort of diploma divide , and I think that 's a factor . ''
In an interview with NPR 's Lulu Garcia-Navarro @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of this moment , the dehumanizing language that has risen up and where we go from here .
How do you capture how dehumanizing language has seeped down from politicians to the body politic in your studies ?
One of the measures we use literally shows people a `` ascent of man '' picture , which is basically the image where you have where you go from sort of a stooped ape-like figure up to a standing human .
And we ask them , how evolved do you think these groups are ?
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ Republicans , how evolved ?
And what we find is around 80 % of people rate their own side higher than they rate the other side .
And almost 70 % of people rate their own side more than 10 points higher than the other side .
And the average is in the 30s , like 35-point difference .
So this is a pretty substantial gap .
And the fear is that our use of language , or how we talk , can lead to action , or in this case , violence @ @ @ @ @ @ @ alarmist .
I do n't think that we 're very close to widespread political violence , largely because I think most people in this country are still fairly happy and are not concerned enough with politics on a day-to-day basis to take to the streets and do awful things .
But we asked people to give a [ prison ] sentence to somebody who had attacked a senator from one party or the other , randomizing the party of the senator and those who dehumanize more give a more lenient sentence .
Right @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of an offense when you attack the other side than when you attack their own side .
Other social scientists we have spoken to wonder if the genie can actually be put back in the bottle .
I will say , as someone who has covered countries where there is deep polarization outside of the United States , it is hard to roll that back .
My thoughts on this are actually somewhat pessimistic .
We long for a period in our history in the latter part of the last century where polarization @ @ @ @ @ @ @ other lines , but along partisan lines , was not very pronounced .
Your race , religion , education level , did n't necessarily predict your partisanship the way that it does today .
And because all those identities are aligned , it becomes this sort of superordinate , super powerful identity .
So then where should we go from here ?
Because what I hear over and over again from voters is that they are tired of this partisanship and yet they are part of this partisanship .
That 's right .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ should be , first of all , on just trying to lower the temperature and I think that falls largely on elites , on elected officials .
I think we should hold them to a higher standard and the media should hold them to a higher standard in terms of not stoking these fires in ways that can be dangerous .
But beyond that , I think we should really look for ways to make it so that our government can work effectively under polarization , because I think this is a much @ @ @ @ @ @ @ kind of odd period historically that we have recently emerged from where the parties were n't really aligned with ideology and all sorts of characteristics .
Sophia Boyd and Ed McNulty produced and edited the audio version of this story .
Christianna Silva adapted it for the Web .

The Consequences Of Dehumanizing Language In Politics
Enlarge this image toggle caption Octavio Jones/Getty Images Octavio Jones/Getty Images
United States politicians are no strangers to using unkind language against their opponents. It's a trend that dates back to at least 1800 when, during the presidential campaign, Thomas Jefferson hired James Callender to slime John Adams. But Alexander Theodoridis, who teaches political science at the University of Massachusetts Amherst, says that today's partisanship can lend itself to particularly dehumanizing language not only between political opponents, but also between regular Americans who belong to opposite political parties.
Theodoridis told NPR's Weekend Edition that "dehumanizing language," which includes people referring to others as animals, can lead to people believing that those who disagree with them don't deserve the same treatment or respect as those who agree with them.
"That is often where things lead," he said. "As either a justification post hoc for treating somebody differently or, in some cases, a precursor to treating a group differently."
One fear is that this kind of dehumanization leads to violence. Another is that it leads people to believe in conspiracy theories that further demonize the people they disagree with. Theodoridis says while both Democrats and Republicans use this kind of language, Republicans tend to believe conspiracy theories like QAnon more easily.
"I think part of that is just the composition of the parties," Theodoridis said. "One feature of the sorting that has happened in terms of who is a Democrat and who is a Republican, there is this sort of diploma divide, and I think that's a factor."
In an interview with NPR's Lulu Garcia-Navarro, Theodoridis reflects on the political polarization of this moment, the dehumanizing language that has risen up and where we go from here.
Interview Highlights
How do you capture how dehumanizing language has seeped down from politicians to the body politic in your studies?
One of the measures we use literally shows people a "ascent of man" picture, which is basically the image where you have where you go from sort of a stooped ape-like figure up to a standing human. And we ask them, how evolved do you think these groups are? And we ask them, Democrats and Republicans, how evolved?
And what we find is around 80% of people rate their own side higher than they rate the other side. And almost 70% of people rate their own side more than 10 points higher than the other side. And the average is in the 30s, like 35-point difference. So this is a pretty substantial gap.
And the fear is that our use of language, or how we talk, can lead to action, or in this case, violence.
I don't want to be alarmist. I don't think that we're very close to widespread political violence, largely because I think most people in this country are still fairly happy and are not concerned enough with politics on a day-to-day basis to take to the streets and do awful things.
But we asked people to give a [prison] sentence to somebody who had attacked a senator from one party or the other, randomizing the party of the senator and those who dehumanize more give a more lenient sentence. Right. So they view it as less of an offense when you attack the other side than when you attack their own side.
Other social scientists we have spoken to wonder if the genie can actually be put back in the bottle. I will say, as someone who has covered countries where there is deep polarization outside of the United States, it is hard to roll that back.
My thoughts on this are actually somewhat pessimistic. We long for a period in our history in the latter part of the last century where polarization along party lines, not necessarily along other lines, but along partisan lines, was not very pronounced. Your race, religion, education level, didn't necessarily predict your partisanship the way that it does today. And because all those identities are aligned, it becomes this sort of superordinate, super powerful identity.
So then where should we go from here? Because what I hear over and over again from voters is that they are tired of this partisanship and yet they are part of this partisanship.
That's right. So I really do think the focus should be, first of all, on just trying to lower the temperature and I think that falls largely on elites, on elected officials. I think we should hold them to a higher standard and the media should hold them to a higher standard in terms of not stoking these fires in ways that can be dangerous.
But beyond that, I think we should really look for ways to make it so that our government can work effectively under polarization, because I think this is a much more natural state of affairs than the kind of odd period historically that we have recently emerged from where the parties weren't really aligned with ideology and all sorts of characteristics.
Sophia Boyd and Ed McNulty produced and edited the audio version of this story. Christianna Silva adapted it for the Web.


npr--2020-10-18--Lindsey Graham Warmed To Trump, And Some Voters Feel Left In The Cold

Lindsey Graham Warmed To Trump , And Some Voters Feel Left In The Cold Even the most optimistic Democrats did n't have South Carolina on the list of Republican U.S. Senate seats they seriously thought they could flip at the start of 2020 .
But a little more than two weeks out from Election Day , it 's within reach .
Democrat Jaime Harrison — a 44-year-old former South Carolina Democratic Party chairman , congressional aide and lobbyist — has risen in the polls and is giving three-term incumbent Sen. Lindsey Graham something to worry about this election .
Make @ @ @ @ @ @ @ solidly Republican state , and since Graham was first elected in 2002 , he has won easily every time .
What has changed this year is Graham himself , specifically how he has aligned himself within the Republican Party .
For most of his political life , Graham appealed to the middle — those more moderate South Carolina voters who saw him as someone who could cut through partisan politics .
The best symbol of this was his close friendship with the late GOP Sen. John McCain of Arizona .
But now McCain @ @ @ @ @ @ @ prominent new relationship is with none other than President Trump , who not only clashed with McCain on issues but also mocked and ridiculed his reputation as a military hero who survived years of torture as a prisoner of war in Vietnam .
At the start of the 2016 campaign , Trump famously said , `` I like people that were n't captured , OK ? ''
At the time , Graham was running against him for the GOP presidential nomination , sugarcoating none of his critiques .
Donald Trump was `` unfit @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bigot , '' according to Graham back then .
One Harrison TV spot shows clips of Graham from the 2016 campaign , when he seemed appalled by Trump .
Then , the ad cuts to more recent statements where Graham proclaims , `` No , I do n't think he 's a race-baiting , xenophobic , religious bigot .
I like the president .
I am like the happiest dude in America right now . ''
Some South Carolina voters , like real estate agent Melinda Nicholson , are mystified by Graham moving @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to his current friendship with Trump .
`` I 'm just not pleased , '' Nicholson says of Graham .
`` It 's like he 's Trump 's minion , and I do n't like that . ''
That opinion comes from a Democrat , but Nicholson quickly explains that she has voted for Graham every time he has run for Senate .
This year , she says , `` I 'm voting for Jaime Harrison . ''
The incumbent 's vocal defense of Trump has prompted Democrats from around the U.S. to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that national support , Harrison has been able to mount an aggressive media campaign , especially with television ads — some of them biographical , introducing himself to voters , and some of them classic attack ads going after Graham .
But he has also had the money to build a campaign organization and reach out to voters through social media , radio , direct mail and phone calls .
He went from being more than 15 points down early in the year to virtually wiping out Graham 's lead in a series @ @ @ @ @ @ @ final month .
Then came the blockbuster news that really put Harrison in the spotlight — a record-shattering haul in the third quarter , bringing in $ 57 million and topping the previous single-quarter fundraising record in any Senate race ever , set by Beto O'Rourke in Texas during the 2018 midterms .
It 's more money than Harrison — who hopes to be the first African American Democrat elected to the U.S. Senate from a Southern state — could even hope to spend in the final weeks of the campaign .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Graham 's attention .
He has even used appearances on Fox News to urge viewers to contribute dollars , as he did in late September on the conservative cable network : `` Every liberal in the country wants to take me out . ''
He then spelled out the address to his website , making the plea very clear .
The incumbent senator spent the past week chairing the Supreme Court confirmation hearings for nominee Amy Coney Barrett , and he even alluded to Harrison 's fundraising success during those proceedings when the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ `` I do n't know what 's going on out there , but I can tell you there 's a lot of money being raised in this campaign , '' he said at one point , speaking to the nominee and , seemingly , everyone at the whole hearing .
`` I 'd like to know where the hell some of it 's coming from . ''
Early voting in South Carolina is now underway .
In the Charleston area , people have been casting ballots at the local sports coliseum .
Mike @ @ @ @ @ @ @ officer who describes himself as an independent who is conservative .
He voted to reelect Graham , explaining , `` He supports the police , I know that for sure .
Supreme Court , that 's a big issue , and even though I 'm independent , I would prefer that Republicans hold on to the Senate . ''
The Supreme Court is a motivator for anti-Graham voters too .
Four years ago , after the death of Justice Antonin Scalia , Graham said it was right to deny President Barack Obama 's @ @ @ @ @ @ @ confirmation vote because it was an election year .
He said then , and has repeated in recent years , that it was a principle he 'd adhere to even under Trump .
He broke that pledge by fully backing the nomination currently before the Senate in the final days of the 2020 election .
That broken promise is an issue for voter Brenda Toohey , a 56-year-old nurse practitioner from Mount Pleasant , S.C. She says events of the past four years have made her an even stronger Democrat .
`` I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for letting this vote go for the Supreme Court .
It 's very concerning . ''
The big risk for Graham is that this election alters his usual approach to winning .
He has always relied on moderate voters — be they Republicans , independents or Democrats .
They famously helped him survive primary challenges over the years from far more conservative Republican hopefuls .
This year , many moderates are upset with him and his closeness to the president .
Charleston attorney Andy Savage says that his politics are mostly right in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ his ballot between Democratic and Republican candidates .
But one constant had been his unwavering support for Graham , as a voter and as a contributor .
`` Financially , we supported him , '' Savage said .
`` You know , all the bumper stickers and all that sort of stuff in politics that you do .
We were all in . ''
Not this year .
`` We were always eyeball to eyeball on the issues , '' he says .
Then the senator `` just veered off into Never Never @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Savage says , Graham signaled to voters like him that the senator does n't need them anymore .
Now , it appears , Graham ca n't spare much of any support .

Lindsey Graham Warmed To Trump, And Some Voters Feel Left In The Cold
Enlarge this image toggle caption Patrick Semansky/AP Patrick Semansky/AP
Even the most optimistic Democrats didn't have South Carolina on the list of Republican U.S. Senate seats they seriously thought they could flip at the start of 2020.
But a little more than two weeks out from Election Day, it's within reach.
Democrat Jaime Harrison — a 44-year-old former South Carolina Democratic Party chairman, congressional aide and lobbyist — has risen in the polls and is giving three-term incumbent Sen. Lindsey Graham something to worry about this election.
Make no doubt: South Carolina remains a solidly Republican state, and since Graham was first elected in 2002, he has won easily every time.
What has changed this year is Graham himself, specifically how he has aligned himself within the Republican Party. For most of his political life, Graham appealed to the middle — those more moderate South Carolina voters who saw him as someone who could cut through partisan politics.
The best symbol of this was his close friendship with the late GOP Sen. John McCain of Arizona.
But now McCain is gone, and Graham's most prominent new relationship is with none other than President Trump, who not only clashed with McCain on issues but also mocked and ridiculed his reputation as a military hero who survived years of torture as a prisoner of war in Vietnam. At the start of the 2016 campaign, Trump famously said, "I like people that weren't captured, OK?"
At the time, Graham was running against him for the GOP presidential nomination, sugarcoating none of his critiques. Donald Trump was "unfit for office" and a "religious bigot," according to Graham back then.
One Harrison TV spot shows clips of Graham from the 2016 campaign, when he seemed appalled by Trump. Then, the ad cuts to more recent statements where Graham proclaims, "No, I don't think he's a race-baiting, xenophobic, religious bigot. I like the president. I am like the happiest dude in America right now."
Some South Carolina voters, like real estate agent Melinda Nicholson, are mystified by Graham moving from such a close friendship with McCain to his current friendship with Trump.
"I'm just not pleased," Nicholson says of Graham. "It's like he's Trump's minion, and I don't like that."
That opinion comes from a Democrat, but Nicholson quickly explains that she has voted for Graham every time he has run for Senate. This year, she says, "I'm voting for Jaime Harrison."
The incumbent's vocal defense of Trump has prompted Democrats from around the U.S. to make online donations to Harrison. With that national support, Harrison has been able to mount an aggressive media campaign, especially with television ads — some of them biographical, introducing himself to voters, and some of them classic attack ads going after Graham.
But he has also had the money to build a campaign organization and reach out to voters through social media, radio, direct mail and phone calls. He went from being more than 15 points down early in the year to virtually wiping out Graham's lead in a series of polls as the campaign reached its final month.
Then came the blockbuster news that really put Harrison in the spotlight — a record-shattering haul in the third quarter, bringing in $57 million and topping the previous single-quarter fundraising record in any Senate race ever, set by Beto O'Rourke in Texas during the 2018 midterms.
It's more money than Harrison — who hopes to be the first African American Democrat elected to the U.S. Senate from a Southern state — could even hope to spend in the final weeks of the campaign.
The surge in gifts to Harrison certainly got Graham's attention. He has even used appearances on Fox News to urge viewers to contribute dollars, as he did in late September on the conservative cable network: "Every liberal in the country wants to take me out." He then spelled out the address to his website, making the plea very clear.
The incumbent senator spent the past week chairing the Supreme Court confirmation hearings for nominee Amy Coney Barrett, and he even alluded to Harrison's fundraising success during those proceedings when the topic of campaign finance came up. "I don't know what's going on out there, but I can tell you there's a lot of money being raised in this campaign," he said at one point, speaking to the nominee and, seemingly, everyone at the whole hearing. "I'd like to know where the hell some of it's coming from."
Early voting in South Carolina is now underway. In the Charleston area, people have been casting ballots at the local sports coliseum.
Mike O'Connell, 54, is a police officer who describes himself as an independent who is conservative. He voted to reelect Graham, explaining, "He supports the police, I know that for sure. Supreme Court, that's a big issue, and even though I'm independent, I would prefer that Republicans hold on to the Senate."
The Supreme Court is a motivator for anti-Graham voters too. Four years ago, after the death of Justice Antonin Scalia, Graham said it was right to deny President Barack Obama's nominee, Judge Merrick Garland, a confirmation vote because it was an election year. He said then, and has repeated in recent years, that it was a principle he'd adhere to even under Trump. He broke that pledge by fully backing the nomination currently before the Senate in the final days of the 2020 election.
That broken promise is an issue for voter Brenda Toohey, a 56-year-old nurse practitioner from Mount Pleasant, S.C. She says events of the past four years have made her an even stronger Democrat. "I think that Lindsey Graham is a hypocrite for letting this vote go for the Supreme Court. It's very concerning."
The big risk for Graham is that this election alters his usual approach to winning. He has always relied on moderate voters — be they Republicans, independents or Democrats. They famously helped him survive primary challenges over the years from far more conservative Republican hopefuls.
This year, many moderates are upset with him and his closeness to the president.
Charleston attorney Andy Savage says that his politics are mostly right in the middle and that he regular splits his ballot between Democratic and Republican candidates.
But one constant had been his unwavering support for Graham, as a voter and as a contributor. "Financially, we supported him," Savage said. "You know, all the bumper stickers and all that sort of stuff in politics that you do. We were all in."
Not this year. "We were always eyeball to eyeball on the issues," he says. Then the senator "just veered off into Never Never Land."
And in the process, Savage says, Graham signaled to voters like him that the senator doesn't need them anymore.
Now, it appears, Graham can't spare much of any support.


npr--2020-10-19--Coronavirus World Map: Tracking The Spread Of The Outbreak

Coronavirus World Map : Tracking The Spread Of The Outbreak On Sept. 28 , the world marked a tragic milestone : 1 million deaths from COVID-19 .
That 's according to a tally maintained by Johns Hopkins University .
And public health experts believe the actual toll – the recorded deaths plus the unrecorded deaths – is much higher .
While the number of cases has slowed in many countries that were hit hard early on by coronavirus , the number of new cases continues to increase .
Since early July , new daily cases averaged over 200,000 worldwide .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ country-by-country breakdown of new and total cases since January .
At over 8 million cases , the United States leads the world 's COVID-19 crisis .
In late spring and early summer , new COVID-19 cases were largely driven by cases in the Americas .
While the U.S. has consistently had the most new daily cases of coronavirus in the region , Brazil 's new daily cases increased rapidly between May and August .
However , in September , several countries that had previously flattened their curve saw a resurgence in cases , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , daily case counts have risen swiftly since June , without signs of slowing down .
Explore how the number of coronavirus cases have shifted in different parts of the world over time .
The first chart compares each continent to each other , while the next charts highlight the number of cases in select countries by region .
To compare country outbreaks , the chart below graphs trend lines for average new daily cases and deaths against each country 's totals to date .
This type of visualization highlights a state 's @ @ @ @ @ @ @ overall size of its outbreak .
When both new and total case and death counts grow quickly , the curves bend upward .
As new cases and deaths slow , the curves level or bend down .
In countries like Israel , which is seeing a second wave of case growth after an initial wave in April , the line forms a V-shape , as the initially bent curve spikes upwards again .
Click here to see the state-by-state breakdown of cases in the United States .
This story was originally published on @ @ @ @ @

Coronavirus world map: We've now passed the 600 million mark for infections
Editor's note: This page is no longer being updated. The last update was Sept. 5, 2022. For current data about COVID-19 cases and deaths around the world, Johns Hopkins University and Our World in Data are useful resources.
In late January 2020 only a few dozen COVID-19 infections had been identified outside of China. A year later, the world tallied its first 100 million cases. It took the globe just 7 more months to pass the 200 million mark— then another 5 months to hit 300 million, according to researchers at Johns Hopkins University. Now the virus has spread to every corner of the globe and has been blamed for more than 6 million deaths.
The United States, India and Brazil in that order have had the most COVID cases and the three nations collectively account for almost half of all recorded infections so far in the pandemic.
Explore the chart below to find a country-by-country breakdown of new and total cases since January 2020.
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Explore how the number of coronavirus cases have shifted in different parts of the world over time. The first chart compares each continent to each other, while the next charts highlight the number of cases in select countries by region.
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This story was originally published on March 30, 2020.


npr--2020-10-19--Coronavirus Maps: How Severe Is Your State's Outbreak?

Coronavirus Maps : How Severe Is Your State 's Outbreak ?
More than 8 million people in the U.S. have been infected with the coronavirus and more than 215,000 have died .
Tens of thousands of new cases are reported daily nationwide .
In the graphics below , explore the trends in your state .
View the data via a heat map ( immediately below ) , curve charts , a table of state-by-state trends over four weeks , or a map of total cases and deaths .
The map above shows the risk of infection in each state based @ @ @ @ @ @ @ These color-coded risk levels were developed by a consortium of researchers and public health experts .
The group advises states in the red category to issue stay-home orders .
Orange states may need to consider stay-home orders , along with increased testing and contact tracing .
Yellow states need to keep up social distancing and mask usage , and both yellow and green states should continue testing and contact tracing .
To compare state outbreaks , the chart above graphs trend lines for average new daily cases and deaths against each state 's @ @ @ @ @ @ @ visualization highlights a state 's daily growth or decline relative to the overall size of its outbreak .
When both new and total case and death counts grow quickly , the curves bend upward .
As new cases and deaths slow , the curves level or bend down .
In New York , the curve rose sharply before reaching over 170,000 total cases in April .
Since then , new cases have fallen from about 10,000 per day in mid-April to over 1,000 per day in mid October .
Explore the map above @ @ @ @ @ @ @ around the country for both new confirmed cases and reported deaths from COVID-19 .
New York was the original epicenter of the pandemic in the U.S. As of mid October , California , Florida and Texas surpass New York for total cases to date , though New York still has the highest death total .
Click here to see a global map of confirmed cases and deaths .
To show trends , the table below shows the change in average new cases per day in each state , week over week for the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ shades of red have growing outbreaks ; those in shades of green , are declining .
The graphics on this page pull from data compiled by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering at Johns Hopkins University from several sources , including the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention ; the World Health Organization ; national , state and local government health departments ; 1point3acres ; and local media reports .
The JHU team automates its data uploads and regularly checks them for anomalies .
This may result in occasional data discrepancies on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ anomalies and updates its feeds .
State-by-state recovery data are unavailable at this time .
There may be discrepancies between what you see here and what you see on your local health department 's website .
Figures shown do not include cases on cruise ships .
Fluctuations in the numbers may happen as health authorities review old cases and or update their methodologies .
For example , in early June , Michigan health authorities started including probable cases in its totals .
This resulted in a brief spike in the state 's daily @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to reconcile the historical data .
On June 25 , New Jersey included 1,854 previously-unreported probable deaths in its totals , resulting in a spike in the state 's daily death numbers .
On Sept. 2 , Massachusetts changed its methodology for counting probable cases , which lowered its overall case and death numbers .
The JHU team maintains a list of such changes .
This story was originally published on March 16 , 2020 .
Elena Renken was a co-author on that version .
Sean McMinn contributed to and Carmel Wroth edited @ @ @

Tracking the coronavirus around the U.S.: See how your state is doing
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Note: This page was last updated on Feb. 1, 2023. It will no longer be updated. For current data on COVID cases and deaths, demographics, and hospitalizations, consult the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
As of Feb. 1, there have been more than 101 million confirmed coronavirus infections in the U.S. and more than 1 million people have died of COVID-19. In the graphics below, explore the trends in your state.
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The above charts show average new cases per 100,000 people for each state over the last 12 months.
Note: Actual cases may be substantially higher, since many who test positive with at-home tests don't report their cases.
For additional data about COVID-19 in the U.S, including cases and deaths, demographics, and hospitalizations, consult the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention website.
To show trends, the table below shows the change in average new cases per day in each state, week over week for the last 28 days. States marked in shades of red have growing outbreaks; those in shades of green, are declining.
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Methodology
The graphics on this page pull from data compiled by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering at Johns Hopkins University from several sources, including the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; the World Health Organization; national, state and local government health departments; 1point3acres; and local media reports.
The JHU team automates its data uploads and regularly checks them for anomalies. This may result in occasional data discrepancies on this page as the JHU team resolves anomalies and updates its feeds. There may be discrepancies between what you see here and what you see on your local health department's website. Figures shown do not include cases on cruise ships.
Fluctuations in the numbers may happen as health authorities review old cases, process testing backlogs or update their methodologies. The JHU team maintains a list of such changes.
This story was originally published on March 16, 2020. Elena Renken was a co-author on that version. Sean McMinn and Audrey Carlsen contributed to this story. Carmel Wroth edited this story.


npr--2020-10-19--Coronavirus Cases Rise To Highest Level Since Late July

With coronavirus outbreaks picking up speed in dozens of states , the U.S is now climbing steadily toward a new peak in cases that may soon rival the summer surge — when the country hit over 60,000 infections on average a day for weeks in a row .
On Friday , U.S. cases surged higher than they had since late July , hitting nearly 70,000 in one day .
The seven-day daily average is now more than 55,000 cases a day .
New cases have gone up by nearly 30 % from two weeks ago .
Last week , seventeen @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Great Plains — posted new daily records , according to the COVID Tracking Project .
Hospitalizations also increased in more than 40 states , with the numbers of people currently hospitalized reaching more than 36,000 , which is more than half the highs recorded during the spring and summer surges .
Unlike during the summer when a handful of larger states drove up the numbers , the current growth is diffused across many states .
`` It 's just these roving hotspots in a country that 's big , and different areas are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Amesh Adalja , a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins University Center for Health Security .
The summer may have acted as a kind of buffer , he says , for the middle of the country , keeping the virus at lower levels in the community because people spent more time outside .
But Adalja says more people congregating indoors , including students returning to schools and college campuses , and general fatigue around pandemic precautions are all likely propelling this latest growth in cases .
`` There may be places that were @ @ @ @ @ @ @ virus finds it very hospitable because people are complacent , '' Adalja says .
Which states are driving the surge ?
The outbreaks raging in the Midwest play a major role in the rising numbers , with 43 % growth in new infections over the past two weeks .
That region ( defined as 12 states by the U.S. census ) accounted for more than a third of all new cases in the U.S. over the past week , according to NPR 's analysis of CDC data .
Illinois and Wisconsin each added @ @ @ @ @ @ @ seven days , rivaling much larger states like California .
Hospitalizations more than doubled in the past two weeks in Wisconsin and the state stood up a field hospital to make room for the growing number of patients .
While the overall numbers in North and South Dakota are lower than those neighboring states , their rate of new infections per capita continue to eclipse all other states — and even what Arizona recorded during its devastating summer surge .
`` We are caught in the middle of a COVID storm , '' @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Burgum at a press event this week , as he displayed a map with alarming positivity rates across the region , from Iowa to Idaho to Kansas .
The outbreak has increasingly fanned out to Western states , too .
Montana , Wyoming and Utah have high per capita rates of new infections on par with the Midwest , and even states that have successfully kept the virus in check for months are now seeing a spike .
In New Mexico , daily new infections more than doubled over the past two weeks @ @ @ @ @ @ @ since the pandemic began .
The South , which includes Florida and Texas , accounts for close to 40 % of total cases in the last week , with cases rising quickly in some states like Tennessee and Mississippi .
While the Northeast has a much smaller share of cases compared to other regions , the average case count doubled over the past month .
Will more deaths soon follow ?
The pandemic was predicted to gain traction in the fall , a time when respiratory viruses typically peak as people spend more @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has come even sooner than some public health experts anticipated .
`` It 's happening at a rate that is even faster than I might have expected , '' says Dr. Peter Hotez , dean for the National School of Tropical Medicine at Baylor College of Medicine , `` I predict then we 'll soon start seeing the number of deaths go up . ''
Along with the arrival of cooler temperatures in northern states , Hotez points out that some of those states have resisted mandates requiring facemasks and social distancing .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ fueled not by new spikes but by a steady continued slow-burn of infections in states with large populations .
Even California and Texas — both states where cases had dropped off significantly in late summer — each continue to post more than twenty thousand cases a week .
Hotez says models forecasting upwards of 170,000 deaths in about the next four months — and Dr. Anthony Fauci 's warnings that the U.S. could eventually surpass 100,000 cases a day — may come to pass , given the current trajectory of the pandemic .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and especially if we do n't have any kind of national containment strategy , '' Hotez says .
`` The expectation is that cases will also accelerate across the country . ''
Increasingly , the virus is sweeping through rural communities that had been spared earlier in the pandemic .
`` We 've really switched to the infections emerging in the last strongholds , which are rural areas of Iowa , '' says Dr. Christine Petersen at the University of Iowa .
`` This is kind of a pattern that 's consistent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Though many communities are eager to open up businesses and social events , they lack the tools to do so safely , says Adalja .
`` The biggest issue is still the fact that many of these states do n't have the capacity to test , trace and isolate , '' Adalja says , referring to the proven public health strategy that helps box in new infections before they can spread .
`` It 's not necessarily about reopening , '' Adalja says .
`` It 's about reopening with a plan and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to be able to absorb the inevitable number of cases that you get . ''

U.S. Coronavirus Cases Surging Toward A Third Peak
Updated Thursday 10:15 a.m. ET
With coronavirus outbreaks picking up speed in dozens of states, the U.S. is now climbing rapidly toward a new peak in cases that may soon rival the summer surge — when the country hit more than 60,000 infections on average a day for weeks in a row.
On Thursday, U.S. cases spiked higher than they had since late July, hitting more than 71,000 in one day. The seven-day daily average is now more than 61,000 cases a day. New cases have gone up by 30% from two weeks ago.
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All but six states and the District of Columbia show increased cases this week compared to last week.
Hospitalizations are also increasing, with the numbers of people currently hospitalized reaching more than 41,000, which is more than half the highs recorded during the spring and summer surges.
Unlike during the summer, when a handful of larger states drove up the numbers, the current growth is diffused across many states.
"It's just these roving hot spots in a country that's big, and different areas are on different clocks," says Dr. Amesh Adalja, a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins University Center for Health Security.
The summer may have acted as a kind of buffer, he says, for the middle of the country, keeping the virus at lower levels in the community because people spent more time outside.
But Adalja says more people congregating indoors, including students returning to schools and college campuses, and general fatigue around pandemic precautions are all likely propelling this latest growth in cases.
"There may be places that were not hit hard early on where the virus finds it very hospitable because people are complacent," Adalja says.
Which states are driving the surge?
The outbreaks raging in the Midwest play a major role in the rising numbers, with 52% growth in daily new infections over the past two weeks.
That region (defined as 12 states by the U.S. census) accounted for more than a third of all new cases in the U.S. last week, according to NPR's analysis of CDC data.
Illinois and Wisconsin each added more than 25,000 new cases in the past seven days, rivaling much larger states like California. Hospitalizations more than doubled in the past two weeks in Wisconsin, and the state stood up a field hospital to make room for the growing number of patients.
While the overall numbers in North and South Dakota are lower than those of neighboring states, their rate of new infections per capita continues to eclipse all other states — and even what Arizona recorded during its devastating summer surge.
"We are caught in the middle of a COVID storm," said North Dakota's Republican Gov. Doug Burgum at a press event last week as he displayed a map with alarming positivity rates across the region, from Iowa to Idaho to Kansas.
The outbreak has increasingly fanned out to Western states, too.
Montana, Wyoming and Utah have high per capita rates of new infections on par with the Midwest, and even states that have successfully kept the virus in check for months are now seeing a spike.
In New Mexico, daily new infections more than doubled over the past two weeks and are now at the highest levels since the pandemic began.
The South, which includes Florida and Texas, accounts for close to 40% of total cases last week, with cases rising quickly in some states like Tennessee and Mississippi. While the Northeast has a much smaller share of cases compared to other regions, the average case count is up by 30% over two weeks ago.
Will more deaths soon follow?
The pandemic was predicted to gain traction in the fall, a time when respiratory viruses typically peak as people spend more time indoors. But the steep rise has come even sooner than some public health experts anticipated.
"It's happening at a rate that is even faster than I might have expected," says Dr. Peter Hotez, dean for the National School of Tropical Medicine at Baylor College of Medicine. "I predict then we'll soon start seeing the number of deaths go up."
Along with the arrival of cooler temperatures in Northern states, Hotez points out that some of those states have resisted mandates requiring face masks and social distancing.
Some of the growth in cases is fueled not by new spikes but by a steady, continued slow-burn of infections in states with large populations. Even California and Texas — both states where cases had dropped off significantly in late summer — each continue to post more than 20,000 cases a week.
Hotez says models forecasting upward of 170,000 deaths in about the next four months — and Dr. Anthony Fauci's warnings that the U.S. could eventually surpass 100,000 cases a day — may come to pass, given the current trajectory of the pandemic.
"I think that's very real, and especially if we don't have any kind of national containment strategy," Hotez says. "The expectation is that cases will also accelerate across the country."
Increasingly, the virus is sweeping through rural communities that had been spared earlier in the pandemic.
"We've really switched to the infections emerging in the last strongholds, which are rural areas of Iowa," says Dr. Christine Petersen at the University of Iowa. "This is a kind of a pattern that's consistent across at least the Midwest."
Though many communities are eager to open up businesses and social events, they lack the tools to do so safely, says Adalja.
"The biggest issue is still the fact that many of these states don't have the capacity to test, trace and isolate," Adalja says, referring to the proven public health strategy that helps box in new infections before they can spread.
"It's not necessarily about reopening," Adalja says. "It's about reopening with a plan and the public health infrastructure that's going to be able to absorb the inevitable number of cases that you get."