npr--2020-10-20--Living In Harm's Way: Why Most Flood Risk Is Not Disclosed

Living In Harm 's Way : Why Most Flood Risk Is Not Disclosed Five years ago , the Obbink family decided to buy a house in Virginia Beach , Va. Kerrie Obbink led the charge because her husband , Steve , was an active-duty member of the Navy .
That was why they had moved from Connecticut to Virginia in the first place .
Kerrie started looking for houses that were in their price range , and where she could imagine raising their children .
It did n't take long to find a place that seemed right .
`` He @ @ @ @ @ @ @ remembers , `` and there was a park across the street with playing fields , which was nice . ''
The Obbinks pooled their savings and made an offer on the house .
That started the wheels of the homebuying process turning : They put down a deposit , scheduled inspections , got approved for a mortgage and moved into their one-story house in fall 2015 .
One year later , their house flooded .
The house had also flooded less than a decade earlier , and it was in a flood plain @ @ @ @ @ @ @ those things — the Federal Emergency Management Agency keeps track of flood insurance claims and publishes flood maps that states and cities use to make planning decisions .
But no one told the Obbinks they were moving into harm 's way , because no one was obligated to : not their real estate agent , not the seller , not the inspector .
Or any government agency , or the real estate website that listed the property .
A growing body of research suggests that the lack of transparency and growing flood risk @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of Americans to put their safety and their financial futures in jeopardy .
About 15 million properties have significant risk of flooding , according to recent estimates that take into account climate-driven weather .
Yet studies in multiple states have found that most people living in harm 's way did not understand their home 's flood risk until after they purchased it .
When the Obbinks ' house flooded , they did n't even have time to evacuate .
Kerrie Obbink and her husband spent the night of the flood with two small @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sagging , waterlogged bed , worried they might drown if they fell asleep .
The flood damage wiped out the family 's remaining savings .
They had nowhere to go while they were repairing the house , so they lived in their garage for four months .
`` All of our things , piled outside on the curb for the city to pick up , '' Obbink remembers , `` that was the real moment for me .
I do n't ever want to go through anything like that again . ''
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ middle-class Americans who invest everything they have in their home , as the Obbinks did .
Research by environmental economist Lala Ma at the University of Kentucky suggests that people with less wealth are more likely to concentrate in areas with more flood risk , perhaps because properties are more affordable or because of racist housing policies that restrict housing options .
And they suffer disproportionately when a flood happens .
Poor families are hit the hardest , Ma says .
`` The long-term costs of vulnerable groups being exposed to flood risks @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , because a house is usually a family 's biggest asset , and there are no savings to fall back on .
`` It snowballs into their well-being in the future . ''
The number of families in harm 's way is growing as sea levels rise and extreme rain becomes more common .
One analysis found that more than 80 % of presidential disaster declarations between 1980 and 2017 were for events that included flooding .
Yet 21 states do not require any information about flood risk to be disclosed to homebuyers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Council .
Some of those states are among the most vulnerable to rising seas and climate-driven extreme rain , including Florida , Virginia and Massachusetts .
Even residents of states that do require flood risk disclosure often do n't know that they live in harm 's way until it 's too late , because the information they receive from sellers , real estate agents and government agencies is confusing , incomplete or comes too late .
In 27 of the 29 states with flood disclosure laws , potential buyers receive information about whether @ @ @ @ @ @ @ after they make an offer on the house , NPR found when it reviewed state statutes .
`` At that point , you 're really committed to a property , '' says Carolyn Kousky , executive director of the Wharton Risk Management and Decision Processes Center at the University of Pennsylvania .
`` It 's hard for the [ flood ] risk to be a factor in the decision-making at that point , because it becomes something that 's like , 'Hey , is this enough to kill the deal and walk away @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a property 's flood risk must be conveyed much earlier when people are still weighing their options .
Kousky also argues that flood risk information should be clearer .
In the majority of states with flood disclosure requirements , homebuyers get a form with a simple check box saying whether the property is in an official flood plain — one of hundreds of pages of documents that the buyer must make sense of after they 've made an offer .
In some cases , the information that homebuyers receive is not an accurate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ home faces .
Official flood maps have hard lines between areas with high flood risk and areas with little or no flood risk , which can give the false impression that a home that is next to a flood plain is not at risk for flooding .
In fact , nearly one-third of flood damage happens outside official flood plains , according to FEMA .
`` So it does n't mean you 're safe if you 're not in it , '' the Wharton Risk Center 's Kousky says .
`` Right now @ @ @ @ @ @ @ job explaining that to people . ''
When Lane Barilleau came back from his tour of duty in Afghanistan in 2010 , he and his wife , Loren , were looking for a quiet neighborhood and a house with a yard for the children they planned to have .
The area northeast of Baton Rouge , La.
, where they 'd gone to high school together , seemed perfect .
The couple both understand that the climate is changing , and that means more flooding in southern Louisiana .
They were looking for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and they thought they 'd found one .
Louisiana has the strongest flood disclosure law in the country : People selling the house are required to say whether the house is in an official flood zone , whether they have flood insurance and whether they have experienced flooding at the house .
The Barilleaus thought they understood their home 's flood risk before making an offer .
They saw on federal flood maps that `` this house was like an island , surrounded by flooding areas , '' Loren Barilleau says .
`` @ @ @ @ @ @ @ zone because we do n't want to be flooded . ''
But their home was still at significant risk for flooding , even though it was n't technically in a flood zone .
In 2016 , a rainstorm sent nearly 2 feet of water into their house .
The flood was even more financially devastating because they did n't have flood insurance .
They thought they did n't need it because they were on an island of high ground .
They had to borrow money to repair the damage .
And there were @ @ @ @ @ @ @ miscarriage she experienced during that time partly on the stress from the flood .
They had to move in with family while they were repairing the house , which meant a lot of upheaval for their two small children .
`` We had no schedule , '' she remembers .
`` They did n't take naps anymore .
People were like , 'Does your 2-year-old nap ? '
No , he does n't nap .
He just falls asleep in my arms . ''
Four years later , Barilleau has mixed feelings about @ @ @ @ @ @ @ house as much as I have an attachment to it , '' she says .
She wishes that the information they received about flooding had gone beyond the hard lines on the map and actually conveyed the risk .
`` It would have been helpful to know what the chances were , '' she says .
The fight for more information Ballooning , climate-driven flood damage in the U.S. in recent years has led some states to consider new flood risk disclosure requirements for real estate transactions .
After hotter-than-average water in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ dump a record-breaking amount of rain in the Houston area in 2017 , Texas passed a law that requires sellers to tell buyers whether a home is in a flood zone and whether they have flood insurance .
But similar attempts elsewhere have stalled .
One reason is that widespread flood risk has led elected officials of both parties to reject changes that could drive down their constituents ' property values .
Congress considered a nationwide disclosure requirement as part of an overhaul to the National Flood Insurance Program , but the plan @ @ @ @ @ @ @ close a loophole in New York 's disclosure requirements has been pending in its state Legislature for months .
In Virginia , bills proposing new requirements have failed twice in the last two years .
The most recent bill failed in January after the Virginia Realtors association strongly opposed it .
Terrie Suit , the CEO of the association , says the group did n't like that the legislation would have required sellers to disclose information about flood risk .
`` It leads the buyer to rely on information from a nonprofessional , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hazard zones , no expertise in flood insurance requirements , '' Suit says .
`` It 's very concerning to us . ''
Meanwhile , the National Association of Realtors is advocating for a nationwide flood disclosure system that would not rely on real estate agents .
Instead , the group has called for an independent service for homebuyers that would be similar to Carfax , the private entity that provides detailed information , including crash and flood history , to potential buyers of used cars .
While the idea has drawn some @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is unclear who would administer such a service or who would pay for it .
Many homeowners , elected officials and real estate agents worry that disclosing flood risk could undermine property values or lead to prohibitively high flood insurance premiums .
Loren Barilleau , whose home flooded in 2016 , says she would only support stronger disclosure laws if they came with protections for sellers .
`` It 's a tough thing , '' she says .
`` On one hand , I want to know if I 'm buying a house @ @ @ @ @ @ @ other hand , it 's not fair if we lose money when we sell this house just because the rules changed . ''
Research suggests that disclosing flood risk can cause property values to dip slightly — about 4 % in most studies , although the effects vary in different parts of the country .
Miyuki Hino , an assistant professor of city and regional planning at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill , studies price impacts of hazard disclosure and says she understands why elected officials might be nervous about @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 's a side of you that does n't want to take the risk of devaluing any properties , '' Hino says , `` and therefore [ thinks ] , 'Let 's just leave everything the way it is . '
'' But she warns that disclosing flood risk is likely better for both buyers and sellers than hiding it or hoping it will go away .
Keeping flood risk secret allows more and more people to move into harm 's way without understanding the financial implications , and it contributes to what Hino @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bubble .
`` What you 're doing is actually allowing the bubble to continue growing and eventually it 's going to pop , '' she says .
`` So , are you better off trying to deflate it slowly or waiting for an explosion to happen ? ''
When disclosure laws are not enough Transparency about flood risk is only one piece of the puzzle when it comes to helping people protect themselves from the hazards of a warming planet .
People are not rational machines who decide where to live based purely @ @ @ @ @ @ @ some , the community where they feel most at home also happens to be prone to flooding .
Tramelle and Tracey Neldare understand the flood risk at their home in east Baton Rouge .
The house has been in Tracey 's family since the 1950s when her grandparents decided to move to one of the few neighborhoods in the city where a Black professional could purchase a home and have what Tramelle calls `` a comfortable life . ''
`` I think my mom was about 6 months old when they moved into @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 70 in November , '' says Tracey Neldare , sitting in the side yard of the home she now shares with her husband .
`` We were raised in this home .
My brother and I would spend summers here . ''
After Tracey 's grandmother died , it passed down to Tracey 's mother and her siblings .
The Neldares decided to buy it from the rest of the family and renovate it so they could live there .
They finished the renovation in early 2016 , and the house flooded about @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lot of belongings that had been passed down over the years , which was hard for Tracey .
Repairing the house took a year of work , which Tramelle mostly did himself to save money .
But they never considered moving , and they still are n't considering it , even though they know another flood could happen .
`` It 's still in the back of your mind when a hard rain comes , '' Tracey says .
`` You get a little nervous .
You really do . ''
But she @ @ @ @ @ @ @ : neighbors she has known her entire life .
A lot of the original families still live on the street .
When Tracey was diagnosed with cancer during the pandemic , her neighbors came to check on her .
`` It 's like family , '' she says .
`` Where else are you going to find that ? ''

Living In Harm's Way: Why Most Flood Risk Is Not Disclosed
Enlarge this image toggle caption Ryan Kellman/NPR Ryan Kellman/NPR
Five years ago, the Obbink family decided to buy a house in Virginia Beach, Va.
Kerrie Obbink led the charge because her husband, Steve, was an active-duty member of the Navy. That was why they had moved from Connecticut to Virginia in the first place. Kerrie started looking for houses that were in their price range, and where she could imagine raising their children.
It didn't take long to find a place that seemed right. "He liked the standalone garage," she remembers, "and there was a park across the street with playing fields, which was nice."
The Obbinks pooled their savings and made an offer on the house. That started the wheels of the homebuying process turning: They put down a deposit, scheduled inspections, got approved for a mortgage and moved into their one-story house in fall 2015.
toggle caption Ryan Kellman/NPR
One year later, their house flooded.
The house had also flooded less than a decade earlier, and it was in a flood plain. The federal government knew both of those things — the Federal Emergency Management Agency keeps track of flood insurance claims and publishes flood maps that states and cities use to make planning decisions. But no one told the Obbinks they were moving into harm's way, because no one was obligated to: not their real estate agent, not the seller, not the inspector. Or any government agency, or the real estate website that listed the property.
A growing body of research suggests that the lack of transparency and growing flood risk due to climate change are leading millions of Americans to put their safety and their financial futures in jeopardy.
About 15 million properties have significant risk of flooding, according to recent estimates that take into account climate-driven weather. Yet studies in multiple states have found that most people living in harm's way did not understand their home's flood risk until after they purchased it.
When the Obbinks' house flooded, they didn't even have time to evacuate. Kerrie Obbink and her husband spent the night of the flood with two small children and five pets packed in one sagging, waterlogged bed, worried they might drown if they fell asleep. The flood damage wiped out the family's remaining savings. They had nowhere to go while they were repairing the house, so they lived in their garage for four months.
"All of our things, piled outside on the curb for the city to pick up," Obbink remembers, "that was the real moment for me. I don't ever want to go through anything like that again."
A patchwork of ineffective laws
The situation is particularly dire for poor and middle-class Americans who invest everything they have in their home, as the Obbinks did. Research by environmental economist Lala Ma at the University of Kentucky suggests that people with less wealth are more likely to concentrate in areas with more flood risk, perhaps because properties are more affordable or because of racist housing policies that restrict housing options. And they suffer disproportionately when a flood happens.
Poor families are hit the hardest, Ma says. "The long-term costs of vulnerable groups being exposed to flood risks are really high," she says, because a house is usually a family's biggest asset, and there are no savings to fall back on. "It snowballs into their well-being in the future."
Enlarge this image toggle caption Ryan Kellman/NPR Ryan Kellman/NPR
The number of families in harm's way is growing as sea levels rise and extreme rain becomes more common. One analysis found that more than 80% of presidential disaster declarations between 1980 and 2017 were for events that included flooding.
Yet 21 states do not require any information about flood risk to be disclosed to homebuyers, according to the Natural Resources Defense Council. Some of those states are among the most vulnerable to rising seas and climate-driven extreme rain, including Florida, Virginia and Massachusetts.
Even residents of states that do require flood risk disclosure often don't know that they live in harm's way until it's too late, because the information they receive from sellers, real estate agents and government agencies is confusing, incomplete or comes too late.
In 27 of the 29 states with flood disclosure laws, potential buyers receive information about whether a house is prone to flooding only after they make an offer on the house, NPR found when it reviewed state statutes.
"At that point, you're really committed to a property," says Carolyn Kousky, executive director of the Wharton Risk Management and Decision Processes Center at the University of Pennsylvania. "It's hard for the [flood] risk to be a factor in the decision-making at that point, because it becomes something that's like, 'Hey, is this enough to kill the deal and walk away?' "
She says information about a property's flood risk must be conveyed much earlier when people are still weighing their options.
Kousky also argues that flood risk information should be clearer. In the majority of states with flood disclosure requirements, homebuyers get a form with a simple check box saying whether the property is in an official flood plain — one of hundreds of pages of documents that the buyer must make sense of after they've made an offer.
toggle caption Ryan Kellman/NPR
"We didn't buy in a flood zone"
In some cases, the information that homebuyers receive is not an accurate depiction of the flood risk their new home faces. Official flood maps have hard lines between areas with high flood risk and areas with little or no flood risk, which can give the false impression that a home that is next to a flood plain is not at risk for flooding.
In fact, nearly one-third of flood damage happens outside official flood plains, according to FEMA. "So it doesn't mean you're safe if you're not in it," the Wharton Risk Center's Kousky says. "Right now, we don't do a good job explaining that to people."
When Lane Barilleau came back from his tour of duty in Afghanistan in 2010, he and his wife, Loren, were looking for a quiet neighborhood and a house with a yard for the children they planned to have. The area northeast of Baton Rouge, La., where they'd gone to high school together, seemed perfect.
The couple both understand that the climate is changing, and that means more flooding in southern Louisiana. They were looking for a house that would stay dry, and they thought they'd found one.
Louisiana has the strongest flood disclosure law in the country: People selling the house are required to say whether the house is in an official flood zone, whether they have flood insurance and whether they have experienced flooding at the house.
Enlarge this image toggle caption Ryan Kellman/NPR Ryan Kellman/NPR
The Barilleaus thought they understood their home's flood risk before making an offer. They saw on federal flood maps that "this house was like an island, surrounded by flooding areas," Loren Barilleau says. "We didn't buy in a flood zone because we don't want to be flooded."
But their home was still at significant risk for flooding, even though it wasn't technically in a flood zone. In 2016, a rainstorm sent nearly 2 feet of water into their house. The flood was even more financially devastating because they didn't have flood insurance. They thought they didn't need it because they were on an island of high ground. They had to borrow money to repair the damage.
And there were deeper effects. Loren Barilleau blames a miscarriage she experienced during that time partly on the stress from the flood. They had to move in with family while they were repairing the house, which meant a lot of upheaval for their two small children. "We had no schedule," she remembers. "They didn't take naps anymore. People were like, 'Does your 2-year-old nap?' No, he doesn't nap. He just falls asleep in my arms."
toggle caption Ryan Kellman/NPR
Four years later, Barilleau has mixed feelings about their house. "I resent this house as much as I have an attachment to it," she says.
She wishes that the information they received about flooding had gone beyond the hard lines on the map and actually conveyed the risk. "It would have been helpful to know what the chances were," she says.
The fight for more information
Ballooning, climate-driven flood damage in the U.S. in recent years has led some states to consider new flood risk disclosure requirements for real estate transactions.
After hotter-than-average water in the Gulf of Mexico caused Hurricane Harvey to dump a record-breaking amount of rain in the Houston area in 2017, Texas passed a law that requires sellers to tell buyers whether a home is in a flood zone and whether they have flood insurance.
But similar attempts elsewhere have stalled. One reason is that widespread flood risk has led elected officials of both parties to reject changes that could drive down their constituents' property values. Congress considered a nationwide disclosure requirement as part of an overhaul to the National Flood Insurance Program, but the plan went nowhere. A bill that would close a loophole in New York's disclosure requirements has been pending in its state Legislature for months.
In Virginia, bills proposing new requirements have failed twice in the last two years. The most recent bill failed in January after the Virginia Realtors association strongly opposed it. Terrie Suit, the CEO of the association, says the group didn't like that the legislation would have required sellers to disclose information about flood risk.
"It leads the buyer to rely on information from a nonprofessional, someone who has no expertise in flood hazard zones, no expertise in flood insurance requirements," Suit says. "It's very concerning to us."
Meanwhile, the National Association of Realtors is advocating for a nationwide flood disclosure system that would not rely on real estate agents. Instead, the group has called for an independent service for homebuyers that would be similar to Carfax, the private entity that provides detailed information, including crash and flood history, to potential buyers of used cars.
While the idea has drawn some support from independent flood experts, it is unclear who would administer such a service or who would pay for it.
toggle caption Ryan Kellman/NPR
Many homeowners, elected officials and real estate agents worry that disclosing flood risk could undermine property values or lead to prohibitively high flood insurance premiums. Loren Barilleau, whose home flooded in 2016, says she would only support stronger disclosure laws if they came with protections for sellers.
"It's a tough thing," she says. "On one hand, I want to know if I'm buying a house that will flood. But on the other hand, it's not fair if we lose money when we sell this house just because the rules changed."
Research suggests that disclosing flood risk can cause property values to dip slightly — about 4% in most studies, although the effects vary in different parts of the country. Miyuki Hino, an assistant professor of city and regional planning at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, studies price impacts of hazard disclosure and says she understands why elected officials might be nervous about requiring flood risk disclosure.
"There's a side of you that doesn't want to take the risk of devaluing any properties," Hino says, "and therefore [thinks], 'Let's just leave everything the way it is.'"
But she warns that disclosing flood risk is likely better for both buyers and sellers than hiding it or hoping it will go away. Keeping flood risk secret allows more and more people to move into harm's way without understanding the financial implications, and it contributes to what Hino describes as a potential flood risk housing bubble.
"What you're doing is actually allowing the bubble to continue growing and eventually it's going to pop," she says. "So, are you better off trying to deflate it slowly or waiting for an explosion to happen?"
Enlarge this image toggle caption Ryan Kellman/NPR Ryan Kellman/NPR
When disclosure laws are not enough
Transparency about flood risk is only one piece of the puzzle when it comes to helping people protect themselves from the hazards of a warming planet. People are not rational machines who decide where to live based purely on maps and data and, for some, the community where they feel most at home also happens to be prone to flooding.
Tramelle and Tracey Neldare understand the flood risk at their home in east Baton Rouge. The house has been in Tracey's family since the 1950s when her grandparents decided to move to one of the few neighborhoods in the city where a Black professional could purchase a home and have what Tramelle calls "a comfortable life."
toggle caption Ryan Kellman/NPR
"I think my mom was about 6 months old when they moved into this house, and she'll be 70 in November," says Tracey Neldare, sitting in the side yard of the home she now shares with her husband. "We were raised in this home. My brother and I would spend summers here."
After Tracey's grandmother died, it passed down to Tracey's mother and her siblings. The Neldares decided to buy it from the rest of the family and renovate it so they could live there.
Enlarge this image toggle caption Tramelle Neldare Tramelle Neldare
They finished the renovation in early 2016, and the house flooded about six months later.
Water damaged a lot of belongings that had been passed down over the years, which was hard for Tracey. Repairing the house took a year of work, which Tramelle mostly did himself to save money. But they never considered moving, and they still aren't considering it, even though they know another flood could happen.
Enlarge this image toggle caption Ryan Kellman/NPR Ryan Kellman/NPR
"It's still in the back of your mind when a hard rain comes," Tracey says. "You get a little nervous. You really do."
But she says the house comes with something irreplaceable: neighbors she has known her entire life. A lot of the original families still live on the street. When Tracey was diagnosed with cancer during the pandemic, her neighbors came to check on her. "It's like family," she says. "Where else are you going to find that?"


npr--2020-10-19--Air Travel High: TSA Screens 1 Million For 1st Time Since March

How 's this for an October surprise ?
Despite a significant rise in COVID-19 cases in many parts of the country , it appears that more people are flying on commercial jetliners than at any time over the last seven months .
More than one million people were screened by the Transportation Security Administration at airport security checkpoints Sunday .
It 's the first time the TSA 's daily traveler count has topped the one million mark since March 16 .
And this was n't just a one-day surge in air travel .
The TSA 's daily throughput figure has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and the TSA reports that the 6.1 million people passing through U.S. airport checkpoints between Oct. 12 and Oct. 18 was the greatest weekly traveler volume measured since the start of the pandemic .
But experts say despite there being a lot of pent-up demand for air travel , it 's important to note that even with this modest increase , the number of people flying is still down more than 60 % from the 2.6 million who flew on the same October Sunday last year .
Still , it 's a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the nation 's airlines are burning through tens of millions of dollars a day and reporting huge financial losses due to the coronavirus pandemic .
Delta and United both reported last week that they lost billions in the third quarter , as fewer people than expected dared to get onto airplanes in July , August and September .
American and Southwest report their third-quarter results later this week , but are also expected to show billions in losses after many would be passengers canceled summer travel plans or drove to their destinations instead @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for America says airlines are in desperate need for additional federal coronavirus relief , as they are collectively losing $ 5 billion a month .
Last year and into January and February of this year , airlines were setting passenger volume records .
The TSA reported screening between 2.5 and 2.7 million people on the busiest travel days , which are usually Fridays and Sundays .
But as the coronavirus outbreak spiked last March , companies halted business travel and millions canceled vacations and weekend getaways .
By mid-April , the number of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ under 100,000 , a decline of 96 % .
Other than the days after the terrorist attacks on Sept. 11 , 2001 , the group Airlines for America says there had n't been that few people flying since the dawn of the jet airplane age in the 1950s .
There were short-lived upticks in air travel demand in early summer , especially around the Memorial Day and Fourth of July holiday weekends .
But the number of COVID-19 cases spiked after each holiday , especially in parts of the country that rushed to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ places .
Lingering concerns about spreading the viral illness dampened demand for air travel during the later summer months .
As welcome as this month 's surprising rise in air travel is , there is still a lot of uncertainty over whether the trend will continue , especially heading into the Thanksgiving and Christmas holiday season , which is usually a busy air travel period .
Most airlines have significantly reduced their schedules as demand remains weak , and some have suspended service to smaller cities .
In late September , bookings for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of last year 's level , according to the airline data firm OAG .
And with what appears to be a new wave of COVID-19 cases surging , especially in the Midwest , several states are setting records for the daily number of infections being reported .
Public health officials in many states are urging residents to stay home to celebrate the holidays in small family groups .
`` COVID-19 has changed the way we work , live , and play , and will now change how we plan to celebrate the holidays @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Dr. Ngozi Ezike , who added that `` the safest way to celebrate is with members of your household and connecting with others virtually . ''

Air Travel High: TSA Screens 1 Million For 1st Time Since March
Enlarge this image toggle caption Scott Olson/Getty Images Scott Olson/Getty Images
How's this for an October surprise? Despite a significant rise in COVID-19 cases in many parts of the country, it appears that more people are flying on commercial jetliners than at any time over the last seven months.
More than one million people were screened by the Transportation Security Administration at airport security checkpoints Sunday. It's the first time the TSA's daily traveler count has topped the one million mark since March 16.
And this wasn't just a one-day surge in air travel. The TSA's daily throughput figure has topped 900,000 eight times already this month, and the TSA reports that the 6.1 million people passing through U.S. airport checkpoints between Oct. 12 and Oct. 18 was the greatest weekly traveler volume measured since the start of the pandemic.
But experts say despite there being a lot of pent-up demand for air travel, it's important to note that even with this modest increase, the number of people flying is still down more than 60% from the 2.6 million who flew on the same October Sunday last year.
Still, it's a bit of good news at a time the nation's airlines are burning through tens of millions of dollars a day and reporting huge financial losses due to the coronavirus pandemic. Delta and United both reported last week that they lost billions in the third quarter, as fewer people than expected dared to get onto airplanes in July, August and September. American and Southwest report their third-quarter results later this week, but are also expected to show billions in losses after many would be passengers canceled summer travel plans or drove to their destinations instead of flying.
The industry group Airlines for America says airlines are in desperate need for additional federal coronavirus relief, as they are collectively losing $5 billion a month.
Last year and into January and February of this year, airlines were setting passenger volume records. The TSA reported screening between 2.5 and 2.7 million people on the busiest travel days, which are usually Fridays and Sundays. But as the coronavirus outbreak spiked last March, companies halted business travel and millions canceled vacations and weekend getaways.
By mid-April, the number of travelers passing through security checkpoints plummeted to under 100,000, a decline of 96%. Other than the days after the terrorist attacks on Sept. 11, 2001, the group Airlines for America says there hadn't been that few people flying since the dawn of the jet airplane age in the 1950s.
There were short-lived upticks in air travel demand in early summer, especially around the Memorial Day and Fourth of July holiday weekends. But the number of COVID-19 cases spiked after each holiday, especially in parts of the country that rushed to reopen bars, restaurants and other gathering places. Lingering concerns about spreading the viral illness dampened demand for air travel during the later summer months.
As welcome as this month's surprising rise in air travel is, there is still a lot of uncertainty over whether the trend will continue, especially heading into the Thanksgiving and Christmas holiday season, which is usually a busy air travel period.
Most airlines have significantly reduced their schedules as demand remains weak, and some have suspended service to smaller cities. In late September, bookings for travel in November were just a fraction of last year's level, according to the airline data firm OAG.
And with what appears to be a new wave of COVID-19 cases surging, especially in the Midwest, several states are setting records for the daily number of infections being reported. Public health officials in many states are urging residents to stay home to celebrate the holidays in small family groups.
"COVID-19 has changed the way we work, live, and play, and will now change how we plan to celebrate the holidays," said Illinois Public Health Director Dr. Ngozi Ezike, who added that "the safest way to celebrate is with members of your household and connecting with others virtually."


npr--2020-10-19--Channing Dungey Named Chairman Of Warner Bros. Television Group

One of the top African American executives in Hollywood , Channing Dungey , was named chairman of the Warner Bros. Television Group on Monday .
She will replace Peter Roth who is stepping down early next year after running the television group for more than two decades .
Dungey previously served in executive roles at ABC and most recently Netflix where she was the streaming giant 's Vice President Original Content and Head of Drama .
She left her role at Netflix on Oct. 9 .
While at ABC , she was named President of ABC Entertainment , making her @ @ @ @ @ @ @ entertainment programming division at a major network .
One of her more controversial decisions while at ABC was greenlighting the reboot of Roseanne even after some critics noted the star , Rosanne Barr , had several racist social media posts .
After a successful return to prime time in 2018 , the network quickly ordered 13 more episodes just days after its March 27 premiere .
But two months later , ABC abruptly canceled the show after incendiary tweets from Barr about former Obama White House adviser Valerie Jarret in which she said @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the apes had a baby=vj . ''
`` Roseanne 's Twitter statement is abhorrent , repugnant and inconsistent with our values , and we have decided to cancel her show , '' she said .
The tweet was later deleted and Barr apologized `` for making a bad joke . ''
She also said the sedative Ambien played a role in her tweet .
Most of the cast returned without Barr and The Connors is still featured in ABC 's prime-time programming .
Dungey also oversaw the network 's relaunch of American @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Fox ) and created new series that included A Million Little Things , The Rookie and The Good Doctor .

Channing Dungey Named Chairman Of Warner Bros. Television Group
Enlarge this image toggle caption Phillip Faraone/Getty Images for Fortune Phillip Faraone/Getty Images for Fortune
One of the top African American executives in Hollywood, Channing Dungey, was named chairman of the Warner Bros. Television Group on Monday.
She will replace Peter Roth, who is stepping down early next year after running the television group for more than two decades.
Dungey previously served in executive roles at ABC and most recently Netflix where she was the streaming giant's Vice President Original Content and Head of Drama.
She left her role at Netflix on Oct. 9.
While at ABC, she was named President of ABC Entertainment, making her the first Black executive to run an entertainment programming division at a major network.
One of her more controversial decisions while at ABC was greenlighting the reboot of Roseanne even after some critics noted the star, Rosanne Barr, had several racist social media posts.
After a successful return to prime time in 2018, the network quickly ordered 13 more episodes just days after its March 27 premiere.
But two months later, ABC abruptly canceled the show after incendiary tweets from Barr about former Obama White House adviser Valerie Jarret in which she said, if "muslim brotherhood & planet of the apes had a baby=vj."
Dungey issued a one-sentence statement on the matter.
"Roseanne's Twitter statement is abhorrent, repugnant and inconsistent with our values, and we have decided to cancel her show," she said.
The tweet was later deleted and Barr apologized "for making a bad joke." She also said the sedative Ambien played a role in her tweet.
Most of the cast returned without Barr and The Connors is still featured in ABC's prime-time programming.
Dungey also oversaw the network's relaunch of American Idol (which had previously aired on Fox) and created new series that included A Million Little Things, The Rookie and The Good Doctor.
NPR TV Critic Eric Deggans contributed to this report.


npr--2020-10-20--Safety Board Blames California Diving Boat's Owner For Fire That Killed 34

The National Transportation Safety Board has placed the blame for the dive boat fire that killed 34 people on the vessel 's owners .
The five-member board ruled unanimously on Tuesday that it was a lack of oversight by the owners , Truth Aquatics Inc. , that led to the 2019 fire — one of California 's deadliest maritime disasters .
Investigators said that the burning and sinking of the Conception had made it impossible to pinpoint the exact cause of the fire .
But they noted that the blaze started near the back of the deck in the boat @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in smartphones and other devices containing lithium-ion batteries .
A sister vessel of the Conception , the Vision , had earlier experienced a fire caused by cellphone chargers , The Washington Post reports – but that fire was detected early and quickly put out .
After the Conception fire , the Coast Guard issued a safety bulletin that urged crews to `` reduce potential fire hazards and consider limiting the unsupervised charging of lithium-ion batteries and extensive use of power strips and extension cords . ''
And one Coast Guard safety requirement was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ night watchman .
Five crew members were asleep in the upper deck that night .
When a crewmember awakened and noticed a glow coming from the main deck , the crew made efforts to get to the bunkroom where the passengers and one crew member were staying , but they found their way blocked by fire .
Because there was no watchman , investigators said , by the time the fire was detected it was too big for the crew to handle – leading directly to the large casualty numbers .
Investigators found @ @ @ @ @ @ @ shoes when they died – suggesting that they were awake and trying to escape the fire .
The coroner listed smoke inhalation as the cause of death for all who died .
The bunkroom 's escape hatch was also too hard for passengers to use as a means of escape , investigators said : while it met regulations , it was still inadequate .
`` I hate the term accident in this case because , in my opinion , it is not an accident if you fail to operate your company safely , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ according to The Associated Press .
The NTSB does not have enforcement powers .
Instead , it can make recommendations for safety measures to bodies like the Coast Guard or the Federal Aviation Administration , which have not always accepted the board 's suggestions .
Court documents indicate separate charges are imminent against the boat 's captain , the AP reports , and other court filings show the company and its owners have offered to settle lawsuits with victims ' relatives .

Safety Board Blames California Diving Boat's Owner For Fire That Killed 34
Enlarge this image toggle caption Mario Tama/Getty Images Mario Tama/Getty Images
The National Transportation Safety Board has placed the blame for the dive boat fire that killed 34 people on the vessel's owners.
The five-member board ruled unanimously on Tuesday that it was a lack of oversight by the owners, Truth Aquatics Inc., that led to the 2019 fire — one of California's deadliest maritime disasters.
Investigators said that the burning and sinking of the Conception had made it impossible to pinpoint the exact cause of the fire. But they noted that the blaze started near the back of the deck in the boat's salon, where divers had plugged in smartphones and other devices containing lithium-ion batteries.
A sister vessel of the Conception, the Vision, had earlier experienced a fire caused by cellphone chargers, The Washington Post reports – but that fire was detected early and quickly put out.
After the Conception fire, the Coast Guard issued a safety bulletin that urged crews to "reduce potential fire hazards and consider limiting the unsupervised charging of lithium-ion batteries and extensive use of power strips and extension cords."
And one Coast Guard safety requirement was fatally overlooked, investigators said: a night watchman.
Five crew members were asleep in the upper deck that night. When a crewmember awakened and noticed a glow coming from the main deck, the crew made efforts to get to the bunkroom where the passengers and one crew member were staying, but they found their way blocked by fire.
Because there was no watchman, investigators said, by the time the fire was detected it was too big for the crew to handle – leading directly to the large casualty numbers.
Investigators found that some of the passengers were wearing shoes when they died – suggesting that they were awake and trying to escape the fire. The coroner listed smoke inhalation as the cause of death for all who died.
The bunkroom's escape hatch was also too hard for passengers to use as a means of escape, investigators said: while it met regulations, it was still inadequate.
"I hate the term accident in this case because, in my opinion, it is not an accident if you fail to operate your company safely," board member Jennifer Homendy said, according to The Associated Press.
The NTSB does not have enforcement powers. Instead, it can make recommendations for safety measures to bodies like the Coast Guard or the Federal Aviation Administration, which have not always accepted the board's suggestions.
Court documents indicate separate charges are imminent against the boat's captain, the AP reports, and other court filings show the company and its owners have offered to settle lawsuits with victims' relatives.


npr--2020-10-20--'Gimme Some Lovin' ' Bandleader Spencer Davis Dead at 81

Spencer Davis , the multi-instrumentalist and leader of the band that bore his name , has died at the age of 81 .
The Spencer Davis Group recorded such hits as `` Gim me Some Lovin ' `` and `` I 'm a Man . ''
Davis was n't the lead singer on either song though , giving that job to a teenage Steve Winwood .
Davis died Monday while being treated for pneumonia , according to his tour manager and friend , Bob Birk , who worked with the musician for decades .
In a statement to NPR , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , very talented , good-hearted , extremely intelligent , generous man . ''
Davis was born in Swansea , Wales , where he started singing in a boys ' choir .
By the time he was in college , he was invested in jazz and rhythm and blues .
One day he ran into a young Winwood and his older brother , Muff , playing some country-blues songs at a bar , and Davis was so blown away that he asked the two to join his band immediately .
( Davis told the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Winwood had to join the band simply because Steve was n't old enough to drive yet . )
They eventually became the Spencer Davis Group , and their first big U.K. hit was `` Keep on Running , '' written by Jamaican singer-songwriter Jackie Edwards .
They followed that up with more hits , including `` I 'm a Man '' and `` Gim me Some Lovin ' `` — both of which cracked the Top 10 in the U.S. and the United Kingdom .
The group disbanded a few years later , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a short-lived solo career .
In that 1971 interview , he reflected on his time with the Spencer Davis Group : He eventually had the opportunity — though without Steve Winwood — as he toured under the Spencer Davis Group banner as recently as 2017 .
When it comes to Spencer Davis , the man , Birk offered this story in his statement to NPR : '' Many years ago , a guitar of mine was stolen on a flight to Mexico .
I told him about it when I returned .
For @ @ @ @ @ @ @ we spoke , he asked me if it was recovered .
...
The next time I was at his home , he invited me into his music room .
He walked into a closet [ and ] came out with a black Fender Telecaster similar to the sunburst one that was stolen .
He handed it to me [ and ] asked me to play it .
I played it .
He asked me how I liked it .
I said it played beautifully .
He said 'Enjoy it . '
After a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ into his eyes .
He said , 'It 's yours .
I have a few of them .
I never play this one . '
Of course , I still have it . ''

'Gimme Some Lovin' ' Bandleader Spencer Davis Dead at 81
Enlarge this image toggle caption John Pratt/Keystone Features/Getty Images John Pratt/Keystone Features/Getty Images
Spencer Davis, the multi-instrumentalist and leader of the band that bore his name, has died at the age of 81. The Spencer Davis Group recorded such hits as "Gimme Some Lovin' " and "I'm a Man." Davis wasn't the lead singer on either song though, giving that job to a teenage Steve Winwood.
Davis died Monday while being treated for pneumonia, according to his tour manager and friend, Bob Birk, who worked with the musician for decades.
In a statement to NPR, Birk called him a "highly ethical, very talented, good-hearted, extremely intelligent, generous man."
Davis was born in Swansea, Wales, where he started singing in a boys' choir. By the time he was in college, he was invested in jazz and rhythm and blues. One day he ran into a young Winwood and his older brother, Muff, playing some country-blues songs at a bar, and Davis was so blown away that he asked the two to join his band immediately. (Davis told the Phonograph Record in 1971 that the elder Winwood had to join the band simply because Steve wasn't old enough to drive yet.)
They eventually became the Spencer Davis Group, and their first big U.K. hit was "Keep on Running," written by Jamaican singer-songwriter Jackie Edwards. They followed that up with more hits, including "I'm a Man" and "Gimme Some Lovin' " — both of which cracked the Top 10 in the U.S. and the United Kingdom.
Universal Music Group YouTube
The group disbanded a few years later, and Davis moved to California to start a short-lived solo career. In that 1971 interview, he reflected on his time with the Spencer Davis Group:
"I think I experienced the greatest of pleasures and the greatest of sorrows. I look back on it as a necessary thing. But if anybody said, you know just for a laugh, or if the original members turned up in the same place and there were instruments present, I'm game. I'd really love to blow some of the old things."
He eventually had the opportunity — though without Steve Winwood — as he toured under the Spencer Davis Group banner as recently as 2017.
When it comes to Spencer Davis, the man, Birk offered this story in his statement to NPR:


npr--2020-10-20--Jamal Khashoggi's Fiancee Sues Saudi Crown Prince Over Journalist's Killing

Hatice Cengiz is suing Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in a U.S. court over the murder of Jamal Khashoggi , saying the prince and more than 20 other people should be held responsible for a plot to murder the U.S.-based journalist and democracy advocate .
`` This brutal and brazen crime was the culmination of weeks of planning and conspiratorial actions taken collectively by Defendants and their co- conspirators , '' the lawsuit states .
Those named along with the crown prince include Saud Al-Qahtani , who allegedly orchestrated the killing – reportedly giving orders to Khashoggi 's assailants @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Arab World Now – the nonprofit group Khashoggi led — are seeking to convene a jury trial of the alleged co-conspirators in U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia .
The venue was chosen for several reasons , the plaintiffs say , including a belief that courts in Saudi Arabia or Turkey would not provide justice .
Khashoggi died two years ago in Istanbul ; his remains have never been found .
The lawsuit refers to Cengiz as Khashoggi 's widow , saying she married him according to Islamic traditions on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Khashoggi died , he had been visiting the Saudi consulate in Istanbul to confirm their marriage on civil grounds , the lawsuit states .
It also says he was purposefully lured there by people who wanted him dead .
`` Defendants manufactured an opportunity to murder '' Khashoggi when he approached the Saudi Embassy in Washington , D.C. , hoping to get obtain a certificate of marriage eligibility , the lawsuit states .
Embassy officials in the U.S. told Khashoggi that he could n't get the documents in Washington – that he would @ @ @ @ @ @ @ `` Defendant MBS also instructed the Saudi Ambassador to the United States ... to assure Mr. Khashoggi that it would be safe for Mr. Khashoggi to retrieve the document he needed at the Saudi Consulate in Istanbul , '' the lawsuit says , referring to the crown prince by his initials .
The encounter at the Saudi Embassy , the lawsuit says , was a `` fatal misdirection . ''
`` I am hopeful that we can achieve truth and justice for Jamal through this lawsuit , '' Cengiz said in a statement @ @ @ @ @ @ @ anything was possible in America and I place my trust in the American civil justice system to obtain a measure of justice and accountability . ''
One year ago , the crown prince acknowledged being accountable for the killing of Khashoggi , a prominent critic of the Saudi royal family 's autocratic rule .
But Salman also denied playing a direct role in the Washington Post columnist 's death , saying , `` I get all the responsibility because it happened under my watch . ''
Those remarks came after a U.N. special @ @ @ @ @ @ @ citing evidence that he and other Saudi officials were responsible .
The report by Agnes Callamard , special rapporteur for the U.N. 's Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights , found that `` Khashoggi has been the victim of a deliberate , premeditated execution , an extrajudicial killing for which the state of Saudi Arabia is responsible under international human rights law . ''
Early this year , Callamard and another special rapporteur said they were also `` gravely concerned '' by allegations that the crown prince 's messaging app was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Bezos — the Amazon billionaire who also owns The Washington Post -- as part of its operations against Khashoggi .
The lawsuit seeks both compensatory and punitive damages from the defendants , saying that the amounts would be determined at trial .
`` The objectives of this lawsuit are two-fold , '' said Keith M. Harper , a former U.S. ambassador who is among the attorneys representing Cengiz .
The goals , he said , are to attain accountability for the `` heinous torture and murder '' of Khashoggi , and to learn @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The Saudi government has not responded to a request for comment on the lawsuit .

Jamal Khashoggi's Fiancee Sues Saudi Crown Prince Over Journalist's Killing
Enlarge this image toggle caption Valeriano Di Domenico/Getty Images for ZFF Valeriano Di Domenico/Getty Images for ZFF
Hatice Cengiz is suing Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in a U.S. court over the murder of Jamal Khashoggi, saying the prince and more than 20 other people should be held responsible for a plot to murder the U.S.-based journalist and democracy advocate.
"This brutal and brazen crime was the culmination of weeks of planning and conspiratorial actions taken collectively by Defendants and their co- conspirators," the lawsuit states.
Those named along with the crown prince include Saud Al-Qahtani, who allegedly orchestrated the killing – reportedly giving orders to Khashoggi's assailants via Skype.
Cengiz and Democracy for the Arab World Now – the nonprofit group Khashoggi led — are seeking to convene a jury trial of the alleged co-conspirators in U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia. The venue was chosen for several reasons, the plaintiffs say, including a belief that courts in Saudi Arabia or Turkey would not provide justice. Khashoggi died two years ago in Istanbul; his remains have never been found.
The lawsuit refers to Cengiz as Khashoggi's widow, saying she married him according to Islamic traditions on Sept.16, 2018. On the day Khashoggi died, he had been visiting the Saudi consulate in Istanbul to confirm their marriage on civil grounds, the lawsuit states. It also says he was purposefully lured there by people who wanted him dead.
"Defendants manufactured an opportunity to murder" Khashoggi when he approached the Saudi Embassy in Washington, D.C., hoping to get obtain a certificate of marriage eligibility, the lawsuit states. Embassy officials in the U.S. told Khashoggi that he couldn't get the documents in Washington – that he would need to travel to Turkey instead.
"Defendant MBS also instructed the Saudi Ambassador to the United States ... to assure Mr. Khashoggi that it would be safe for Mr. Khashoggi to retrieve the document he needed at the Saudi Consulate in Istanbul," the lawsuit says, referring to the crown prince by his initials.
The encounter at the Saudi Embassy, the lawsuit says, was a "fatal misdirection."
"I am hopeful that we can achieve truth and justice for Jamal through this lawsuit," Cengiz said in a statement sent to NPR. "Jamal believed anything was possible in America and I place my trust in the American civil justice system to obtain a measure of justice and accountability."
One year ago, the crown prince acknowledged being accountable for the killing of Khashoggi, a prominent critic of the Saudi royal family's autocratic rule. But Salman also denied playing a direct role in the Washington Post columnist's death, saying, "I get all the responsibility because it happened under my watch."
Those remarks came after a U.N. special investigator said Salman should be investigated, citing evidence that he and other Saudi officials were responsible.
The report by Agnes Callamard, special rapporteur for the U.N.'s Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, found that "Khashoggi has been the victim of a deliberate, premeditated execution, an extrajudicial killing for which the state of Saudi Arabia is responsible under international human rights law."
Early this year, Callamard and another special rapporteur said they were also "gravely concerned" by allegations that the crown prince's messaging app was used to hack the phone of Jeff Bezos — the Amazon billionaire who also owns The Washington Post -- as part of its operations against Khashoggi.
The lawsuit seeks both compensatory and punitive damages from the defendants, saying that the amounts would be determined at trial.
"The objectives of this lawsuit are two-fold," said Keith M. Harper, a former U.S. ambassador who is among the attorneys representing Cengiz. The goals, he said, are to attain accountability for the "heinous torture and murder" of Khashoggi, and to learn the whole truth about what happened.
The Saudi government has not responded to a request for comment on the lawsuit.
NPR's Jackie Northam contributed reporting to this story.


npr--2020-10-20--NIH Director 'Guardedly Optimistic' About COVID-19 Vaccine Approval By End Of 2020

NIH Director 'Guardedly Optimistic ' About COVID-19 Vaccine Approval By End Of 2020 Coronavirus cases appear headed for a new surge in the U.S. , which could eclipse the explosion of cases in July .
Much of the new surge is driven by cases in the Midwest and Great Plains states .
Dr. Francis Collins , director of the National Institutes of Health , says `` it was all sadly somewhat predictable . ''
Hospitalizations are up in more than 40 states .
The rising number of cases has not led to a corresponding rise in the number of deaths @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 's Steve Inskeep on Morning Edition that an increase in the number of fatalities will soon follow , as it has previously when cases and hospitalizations went up .
`` All of this , I 'm afraid , happens because we have not succeeded in this country in introducing really effective public health measures , those simple things that we all could be doing , '' he says .
`` Wear your mask , keep that 6-foot distance and do n't congregate indoors whatever you do , and wash your hands .
It @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are tired of it .
And yet the virus is not tired of us . ''
Collins talked with NPR about the status of vaccine development , the White House coronavirus task force and President Trump 's comments about Dr. Anthony Fauci , the leading infectious disease expert on the task force .
Here are excerpts of the interview : You see the end of the year as within the realm of possibility [ for approving a vaccine ] , but not anything we should plan on .
This is a really tough @ @ @ @ @ @ @ possible to try to develop and test the vaccines in the most rigorous way .
But you never know .
Anybody who 's worked on vaccines before will tell you there are things that happen .
And by the way , two of these trials are currently on hold because of a concern about a possible safety issue .
People should be reassured by that , that that means we 're really looking at the safety issues with great scrutiny .
But that does say that those two trials are of somewhat uncertain @ @ @ @ @ @ @ see what happens in the coming days about reactivating those if they are judged to be safe after all .
So many uncertainties here , but I am guardedly optimistic , as I think are most of the experts who are watching over this — including Dr. Fauci , who I talk to every day about this , because he works for me — that we will have , by the end of the year , one or more of these that will pass this very high standard of safety and efficacy .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ unlikely , given the timetables and the standards that have to be followed , that you will hear about an emergency use authorization before late November at the earliest .
You 're part of the coronavirus task force that has been advising the White House .
...
There 's more prominence for a new member , Dr. Scott Atlas , who 's not an infectious disease expert .
... Is the president still listening to experts who know what they 're talking about ?
The task force continues to meet regularly at least @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a whole lot of the issues , especially now that we see the worsening of the pandemic in the middle of the country , which is really quite a serious concern .
And the vice president presides over all of those task force meetings and is incredibly engaged with all of these questions and deliberations and decisions that have to be made .
We have not met with the president in quite some time .
...
I think the president primarily is getting his information from the vice president , from Dr. Atlas @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a chaotic time with the election .
So , yeah , there 's not a direct connection between the task force members and the president as there was a few months ago .
But this seems to be a different time with different priorities .
The president ... was talking about the campaign with people in his campaign yesterday , and he said people are tired of hearing Fauci and `` these idiots . ''
... Do you regard Dr. Fauci in those terms ?
Tony Fauci is probably the most highly respected @ @ @ @ @ @ @ He 's also a terrific communicator .
And I think the public has actually been greatly benefited by hearing his unvarnished , unflinching descriptions of what 's happening with this worst pandemic in more than 100 years .
I have great confidence in him .
How clear do you think public health messaging has been in this crisis and how clear has it continued to be ?
Dr. Fauci has one particular message .
The president has a different set of messages .
Well , I think the public does sometimes get confused @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
And it does n't help that social media plays its role , spreading around a whole lot of conspiracy theories that sometimes are absolutely outrageous but seem to capture people 's attention .
I would just urge people listening to our conversation right now : trust the public health experts .
They do n't really have an ax to grind .
Trust CDC , trust Fauci , trust the folks at the FDA who are trying to do their jobs .
They do n't have any particular reason to spin the information @ @ @ @ @ @ @ do their best to share with you what we know and what we do n't know .
So , yeah , consider the source .
If you 're trying to get public health information , it 's probably good to listen to a public health expert .

NIH Director 'Guardedly Optimistic' About COVID-19 Vaccine Approval By End Of 2020
Enlarge this image toggle caption Greg Nash/Pool/Getty Images Greg Nash/Pool/Getty Images
Coronavirus cases appear headed for a new surge in the U.S., which could eclipse the explosion of cases in July.
Much of the new surge is driven by cases in the Midwest and Great Plains states.
Dr. Francis Collins, director of the National Institutes of Health, says "it was all sadly somewhat predictable."
Hospitalizations are up in more than 40 states. The rising number of cases has not led to a corresponding rise in the number of deaths — yet.
But Collins tells NPR's Steve Inskeep on Morning Edition that an increase in the number of fatalities will soon follow, as it has previously when cases and hospitalizations went up.
"All of this, I'm afraid, happens because we have not succeeded in this country in introducing really effective public health measures, those simple things that we all could be doing," he says. "Wear your mask, keep that 6-foot distance and don't congregate indoors whatever you do, and wash your hands. It's so simple. And yet people are tired of it. And yet the virus is not tired of us."
Collins talked with NPR about the status of vaccine development, the White House coronavirus task force and President Trump's comments about Dr. Anthony Fauci, the leading infectious disease expert on the task force. Here are excerpts of the interview:
You see the end of the year as within the realm of possibility [for approving a vaccine], but not anything we should plan on.
This is a really tough scientific challenge. We are doing everything possible to try to develop and test the vaccines in the most rigorous way. But you never know. Anybody who's worked on vaccines before will tell you there are things that happen.
And by the way, two of these trials are currently on hold because of a concern about a possible safety issue. People should be reassured by that, that that means we're really looking at the safety issues with great scrutiny. But that does say that those two trials are of somewhat uncertain status. And we'll have to see what happens in the coming days about reactivating those if they are judged to be safe after all.
So many uncertainties here, but I am guardedly optimistic, as I think are most of the experts who are watching over this — including Dr. Fauci, who I talk to every day about this, because he works for me — that we will have, by the end of the year, one or more of these that will pass this very high standard of safety and efficacy. ...
I would think it's very unlikely, given the timetables and the standards that have to be followed, that you will hear about an emergency use authorization before late November at the earliest.
You're part of the coronavirus task force that has been advising the White House. ... There's more prominence for a new member, Dr. Scott Atlas, who's not an infectious disease expert. ... Is the president still listening to experts who know what they're talking about?
The task force continues to meet regularly at least once a week and to wrestle with a whole lot of the issues, especially now that we see the worsening of the pandemic in the middle of the country, which is really quite a serious concern. And the vice president presides over all of those task force meetings and is incredibly engaged with all of these questions and deliberations and decisions that have to be made. We have not met with the president in quite some time. ...
I think the president primarily is getting his information from the vice president, from Dr. Atlas, obviously it's a bit of a chaotic time with the election. So, yeah, there's not a direct connection between the task force members and the president as there was a few months ago. But this seems to be a different time with different priorities.
The president ... was talking about the campaign with people in his campaign yesterday, and he said people are tired of hearing Fauci and "these idiots." ... Do you regard Dr. Fauci in those terms?
Tony Fauci is probably the most highly respected infectious disease expert in the world. He's also a terrific communicator. And I think the public has actually been greatly benefited by hearing his unvarnished, unflinching descriptions of what's happening with this worst pandemic in more than 100 years. I have great confidence in him.
How clear do you think public health messaging has been in this crisis and how clear has it continued to be? Dr. Fauci has one particular message. The president has a different set of messages.
Well, I think the public does sometimes get confused about exactly what's going on here. And it doesn't help that social media plays its role, spreading around a whole lot of conspiracy theories that sometimes are absolutely outrageous but seem to capture people's attention.
I would just urge people listening to our conversation right now: trust the public health experts. They don't really have an ax to grind. Trust CDC, trust Fauci, trust the folks at the FDA who are trying to do their jobs. They don't have any particular reason to spin the information. They're going to try to do their best to share with you what we know and what we don't know. So, yeah, consider the source. If you're trying to get public health information, it's probably good to listen to a public health expert.
Nina Kravinsky and Steve Mullis produced the audio interview.


npr--2020-10-20--Even The Most Successful Women Pay A Big Price In Pandemic

Even The Most Successful Women Pay A Big Price In Pandemic Joyce Chen had big plans for this year .
She was working on multiple research projects with an eye on the prize : a promotion to full professor at Ohio State University .
That 's when the coronavirus pandemic hit .
It put the brakes on four years of hard work as an associate professor .
And now she wonders if her promotion will happen as she had hoped for next year .
Chen is part of a rarefied group of accomplished women who are tenured professors in economics @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of working moms who have sidelined their work in the pandemic , stepping back from hard-earned careers to take care of the overwhelming needs at home .
`` It 's almost impossible to do research in these kinds of circumstances , '' says Chen , a mother of three .
`` There 's always something going on , and somebody needs something or something 's not working . ''
While working fathers have not been spared in the pandemic , data collected by the Labor Department indicate that it 's largely mothers who @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in school full time this fall .
In September , 865,000 women dropped out of the workforce — four times the number of men who did .
Countless others like Chen are struggling to get anything done .
For highly educated , high-income women , the `` mom penalty '' can be severe .
Stepping down the career ladder puts promotions , future earning power and also their roles as leaders at risk .
Chen is well aware of the challenges women are already up against .
Last fall , she co-authored a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Ohio State .
She took on the project after fighting and winning her own pay equity case , resulting in a 20 % bump in her salary .
Chen found that female professors at the university earn 11 % less than their male counterparts , translating to a loss of close to $ 18,000 a year .
This year , because of the pandemic , Chen has missed out on grant opportunities and turned down collaborations .
She has n't submitted any papers for publication .
Her research is on indefinite hold .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ to ripple out through your entire career , '' Chen says .
The unequal division of household labor in families gives rise to not just the `` mom penalty '' but the `` dad premium . ''
Driven by the biological clock , women take time off or cut back on their hours just as their careers are taking off , giving men the opportunity to carry on with their work and move up .
Harvard University labor economist Claudia Goldin has found that in higher-paid professions such as law or business , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ long hours and making themselves available around the clock , conditions that working mothers are less likely to accept .
A lawyer can work 45 hours a week and do quite well , Goldin says .
But a lawyer who puts in 80 hours a week and is willing to cut short a vacation to handle a client 's need not only earns disproportionately more — billing a lot more per hour — but also gains status , becoming partner .
Motherhood had a significant impact on women with MBAs , Goldin found @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Although starting salaries of male and female MBAs were fairly comparable , by midcareer , women 's earnings fell to just 64 % of men 's .
Jessica Mintz worries about that gap .
She spent 14 years in corporate marketing , earning an MBA and having two children along the way .
She employed a full-time nanny until her younger daughter started preschool last fall .
Then came the pandemic .
With two small children at home all day , Mintz tried scaling her hours back to part time .
Her husband @ @ @ @ @ @ @ most of the time .
When it became clear that schools in Los Angeles were not going to reopen this fall , Mintz decided to step back from work entirely and become a stay-at-home mom .
`` I do n't know when this is going to end .
I do n't know when we 'll be able to go back to something that resembled normal .
But I do worry that when I get to that point , I 'll have had this gap , '' she says .
Mintz worries that the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , but given that she was already earning less than her husband , the decision over which parent would stop working was clear .
`` In terms of our family , there 's no way that it could have been him who stepped into this position , '' she says .
Stepping off the career ladder is hard , but often there 's no choice when people choose to become parents .
Amy Chantasirivisal counts herself among the fortunate few who found a way around that .
As a software engineer , Chantasirivisal @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the `` growth-at-all-cost '' culture of Silicon Valley .
`` If it was n't seven days a week — and in some cases it was — it was on your mind seven days a week , '' she says .
She grew accustomed to being awakened in the middle of the night to diagnose issues .
When she became pregnant , she discovered her company had no formalized parental leave program .
She and a colleague who was also pregnant at the time had to figure out for themselves how much paid time @ @ @ @ @ @ @ after the birth of her son , Chantasirivisal realized she no longer had a path forward in the startup world .
Last summer , she landed a new job at Wildbit , a small tech company founded by a husband-and-wife team who are themselves parents , a factor that was important to Chantasirivisal then and even more so now .
Early on in the pandemic , her CEO told employees to take whatever time they needed to deal with and process what was going on .
`` She gave us permission to be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Chantasirivisal says business remains good , proving that even in a pandemic there are possibilities — just nowhere near enough , and out of reach for far too many women .

Even The Most Successful Women Pay A Big Price
Enlarge this image toggle caption Jessica Phelps for NPR Jessica Phelps for NPR
Joyce Chen had big plans for this year. She was working on multiple research projects with an eye on the prize: a promotion to full professor at Ohio State University.
That's when the coronavirus pandemic hit. It put the brakes on four years of hard work as an associate professor. And now she wonders if her promotion will happen as she had hoped for next year.
Chen is part of a rarefied group of accomplished women who are tenured professors in economics. But she has now joined millions of working moms who have sidelined their work in the pandemic, stepping back from hard-earned careers to take care of the overwhelming needs at home.
"It's almost impossible to do research in these kinds of circumstances," says Chen, a mother of three. "There's always something going on, and somebody needs something or something's not working."
Enlarge this image toggle caption Jessica Phelps for NPR Jessica Phelps for NPR
While working fathers have not been spared in the pandemic, data collected by the Labor Department indicate that it's largely mothers who are dealing with children who are not in school full time this fall. In September, 865,000 women dropped out of the workforce — four times the number of men who did. Countless others like Chen are struggling to get anything done.
For highly educated, high-income women, the "mom penalty" can be severe. Stepping down the career ladder puts promotions, future earning power and also their roles as leaders at risk.
Chen is well aware of the challenges women are already up against. Last fall, she co-authored a study on the gender pay gap at Ohio State. She took on the project after fighting and winning her own pay equity case, resulting in a 20% bump in her salary. Chen found that female professors at the university earn 11% less than their male counterparts, translating to a loss of close to $18,000 a year.
This year, because of the pandemic, Chen has missed out on grant opportunities and turned down collaborations. She hasn't submitted any papers for publication. Her research is on indefinite hold.
"That's something that's going to ripple out through your entire career," Chen says.
Enlarge this image toggle caption Jessica Phelps for NPR Jessica Phelps for NPR
The unequal division of household labor in families gives rise to not just the "mom penalty" but the "dad premium." Driven by the biological clock, women take time off or cut back on their hours just as their careers are taking off, giving men the opportunity to carry on with their work and move up.
Harvard University labor economist Claudia Goldin has found that in higher-paid professions such as law or business, workers are disproportionately rewarded for putting in long hours and making themselves available around the clock, conditions that working mothers are less likely to accept.
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A lawyer can work 45 hours a week and do quite well, Goldin says. But a lawyer who puts in 80 hours a week and is willing to cut short a vacation to handle a client's need not only earns disproportionately more — billing a lot more per hour — but also gains status, becoming partner.
Motherhood had a significant impact on women with MBAs, Goldin found in a study published in 2010. Although starting salaries of male and female MBAs were fairly comparable, by midcareer, women's earnings fell to just 64% of men's.
Jessica Mintz worries about that gap. She spent 14 years in corporate marketing, earning an MBA and having two children along the way. She employed a full-time nanny until her younger daughter started preschool last fall. Then came the pandemic.
With two small children at home all day, Mintz tried scaling her hours back to part time. Her husband's intense sales job made him unavailable most of the time. When it became clear that schools in Los Angeles were not going to reopen this fall, Mintz decided to step back from work entirely and become a stay-at-home mom.
"I don't know when this is going to end. I don't know when we'll be able to go back to something that resembled normal. But I do worry that when I get to that point, I'll have had this gap," she says.
Mintz worries that the lost time could make her less competitive, but given that she was already earning less than her husband, the decision over which parent would stop working was clear.
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"In terms of our family, there's no way that it could have been him who stepped into this position," she says.
Stepping off the career ladder is hard, but often there's no choice when people choose to become parents. Amy Chantasirivisal counts herself among the fortunate few who found a way around that.
As a software engineer, Chantasirivisal spent 13 years working for startups in the "growth-at-all-cost" culture of Silicon Valley.
Economy Pandemic Forces More Women To Leave The Workforce Pandemic Forces More Women To Leave The Workforce Listen · 11:19 11:19
"If it wasn't seven days a week — and in some cases it was — it was on your mind seven days a week," she says. She grew accustomed to being awakened in the middle of the night to diagnose issues.
When she became pregnant, she discovered her company had no formalized parental leave program. She and a colleague who was also pregnant at the time had to figure out for themselves how much paid time off they were due.
Six months after the birth of her son, Chantasirivisal realized she no longer had a path forward in the startup world.
Last summer, she landed a new job at Wildbit, a small tech company founded by a husband-and-wife team who are themselves parents, a factor that was important to Chantasirivisal then and even more so now. Early on in the pandemic, her CEO told employees to take whatever time they needed to deal with and process what was going on.
"She gave us permission to be unproductive," Chantasirivisal says.
Today, Chantasirivisal says business remains good, proving that even in a pandemic there are possibilities — just nowhere near enough, and out of reach for far too many women.


npr--2020-10-20--Studies Point To Big Drop In COVID-19 Death Rates

Two new peer-reviewed studies are showing a sharp drop in mortality among hospitalized COVID-19 patients .
The drop is seen in all groups , including older patients and those with underlying conditions , suggesting that physicians are getting better at helping patients survive their illness .
`` We find that the death rate has gone down substantially , '' says Leora Horwitz , a doctor who studies population health at New York University 's Grossman School of Medicine and an author on one of the studies , which looked at thousands of patients from March to August .
The study @ @ @ @ @ @ @ system , finds that mortality has dropped among hospitalized patients by 18 percentage points since the pandemic began .
Patients in the study had a 25.6 % chance of dying at the start of the pandemic ; they now have a 7.6 % chance .
That 's a big improvement , but 7.6 % is still a high risk compared with other diseases , and Horwitz and other researchers caution that COVID-19 remains dangerous .
The death rate `` is still higher than many infectious diseases , including the flu , '' Horwitz @ @ @ @ @ @ @ suffer complications for months or even longer .
`` It still has the potential to be very harmful in terms of long-term consequences for many people . ''
Studying changes in death rate is tricky because although the overall U.S. death rate for COVID-19 seems to be dropping , the drop coincides with a change in whom the disease is sickening .
`` The people who are getting hospitalized now tend to be much younger , tend to have fewer other diseases and tend to be less frail than people who were hospitalized @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , '' Horwitz says .
So have death rates dropped because of improvements in treatments ?
Or is it because of the change in who 's getting sick ?
To find out , Horwitz and her colleagues looked at more than 5,000 hospitalizations in the NYU Langone Health system between March and August .
They adjusted for factors including age and other diseases , such as diabetes , to rule out the possibility that the numbers had dropped only because younger , healthier people were getting diagnosed .
They found that death rates @ @ @ @ @ @ @ patients by 18 percentage points on average .
The research , an earlier version of which was shared online as a preprint in August , will appear next week in the Journal of Hospital Medicine .
`` I would classify this as a silver lining to what has been quite a hard time for many people , '' says Bilal Mateen , a data science fellow at the Alan Turing Institute in the United Kingdom .
He has conducted his own research of 21,000 hospitalized cases in England , which also found a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The work , which will soon appear in the journal Critical Care Medicine and was released earlier in preprint , shows an unadjusted drop in death rates among hospitalized patients of around 20 percentage points since the worst days of the pandemic .
Mateen says drops are clear across ages , underlying conditions and racial groups .
Although the paper does not provide adjusted mortality statistics , his rough estimates are comparable to those Horwitz and her team found in New York .
`` Clearly , there 's been something [ that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the risk of individuals who go into these settings with COVID-19 , '' he says .
Horwitz and others believe many things have led to the drop in the death rate .
`` All of the above is often the right answer in medicine , and I think that 's the case here , too , '' she says .
Doctors around the country say that they 're doing a lot of things differently in the fight against COVID-19 and that treatment is improving .
`` In March and April , you got @ @ @ @ @ @ @ we asked your family if they wanted to enroll you into some different trials we were participating in , and we hoped for the best , '' says Khalilah Gates , a critical care pulmonologist at Northwestern Memorial Hospital in Chicago .
`` Six plus months into this , we kind of have a rhythm , and so it has become an everyday standard patient for us at this point in time . ''
Doctors have gotten better at quickly recognizing when COVID-19 patients are at risk of experiencing blood clots or debilitating @ @ @ @ @ @ @ body 's immune system turns on itself , says Amesh Adalja , an infectious disease , critical care and emergency medicine physician who works at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security .
He says that doctors have developed standardized treatments that have been promulgated by groups such as the Infectious Diseases Society of America .
`` We know that when people are getting standardized treatment , it makes it much easier to deal with the complications that occur because you already have protocols in place , '' Adalja says .
`` And @ @ @ @ @ @ @ many hospitals around the country . ''
But Horwitz and Mateen say that factors outside of doctors ' control are also playing a role in driving down mortality .
Horwitz believes that mask-wearing may be helping by reducing the initial dose of virus a person receives , thereby lessening the overall severity of illness for many patients .
And Mateen says that his data strongly suggest that keeping hospitals below their maximum capacity also helps to increase survival rates .
When cases surge and hospitals fill up , `` staff are stretched , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ one 's fault — it 's that the system is n't built to operate near 100 % , '' he says .
For these reasons , Horwitz and Mateen believe that masking and social distancing will continue to play a big role in keeping the mortality rate down , especially as the U.S. and U.K. move into the fall and winter months .
Gates adds that the takeaway definitely should not be to cast the mask aside .
There is still no cure for this disease , and even patients who recover can @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lot of my patients are still complaining of shortness of breath , '' she says .
`` Some of them have persistent changes on their CT scans and impacts on their lung functions . ''
And many people will continue to die , even if the rate has dropped .
A recent estimate by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation suggests the total death count could reach well over 300,000 Americans by February .
`` I do think this is good news , '' Horwitz says of her research findings , `` @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a benign illness . ''

Studies Point To Big Drop In COVID-19 Death Rates
Enlarge this image toggle caption Mario Tama/Getty Images Mario Tama/Getty Images
Updated Oct. 26 at 6:11 p.m. ET
Two new peer-reviewed studies are showing a sharp drop in mortality among hospitalized COVID-19 patients. The drop is seen in all groups, including older patients and those with underlying conditions, suggesting that physicians are getting better at helping patients survive their illness.
"We find that the death rate has gone down substantially," says Leora Horwitz, a doctor who studies population health at New York University's Grossman School of Medicine and an author on one of the studies, which looked at thousands of patients from March to August.
The study, which was of a single health system, finds that mortality has dropped among hospitalized patients by 18 percentage points since the pandemic began. Patients in the study had a 25.6% chance of dying at the start of the pandemic; they now have a 7.6% chance.
That's a big improvement, but 7.6% is still a high risk compared with other diseases, and Horwitz and other researchers caution that COVID-19 remains dangerous.
The death rate "is still higher than many infectious diseases, including the flu," Horwitz says. And those who recover can suffer complications for months or even longer. "It still has the potential to be very harmful in terms of long-term consequences for many people."
Studying changes in death rate is tricky because although the overall U.S. death rate for COVID-19 seems to be dropping, the drop coincides with a change in whom the disease is sickening.
"The people who are getting hospitalized now tend to be much younger, tend to have fewer other diseases and tend to be less frail than people who were hospitalized in the early days of the epidemic," Horwitz says.
So have death rates dropped because of improvements in treatments? Or is it because of the change in who's getting sick?
To find out, Horwitz and her colleagues looked at more than 5,000 hospitalizations in the NYU Langone Health system between March and August. They adjusted for factors including age and other diseases, such as diabetes, to rule out the possibility that the numbers had dropped only because younger, healthier people were getting diagnosed. They found that death rates dropped for all groups, even older patients by 18 percentage points on average.
The research, an earlier version of which was shared online as a preprint in August, appears in the Journal of Hospital Medicine.
"I would classify this as a silver lining to what has been quite a hard time for many people," says Bilal Mateen, a data science fellow at the Alan Turing Institute in the United Kingdom. He has conducted his own research of 21,000 hospitalized cases in England, which also found a similarly sharp drop in the death rate. The work, which will soon appear in the journal Critical Care Medicine and was released earlier in preprint, shows an unadjusted drop in death rates among hospitalized patients of around 20 percentage points since the worst days of the pandemic.
Mateen says drops are clear across ages, underlying conditions and racial groups. Although the paper does not provide adjusted mortality statistics, his rough estimates are comparable to those Horwitz and her team found in New York.
"Clearly, there's been something [that's] gone on that's improved the risk of individuals who go into these settings with COVID-19," he says.
Horwitz and others believe many things have led to the drop in the death rate. "All of the above is often the right answer in medicine, and I think that's the case here, too," she says.
Doctors around the country say that they're doing a lot of things differently in the fight against COVID-19 and that treatment is improving. "In March and April, you got put on a breathing machine, and we asked your family if they wanted to enroll you into some different trials we were participating in, and we hoped for the best," says Khalilah Gates, a critical care pulmonologist at Northwestern Memorial Hospital in Chicago. "Six plus months into this, we kind of have a rhythm, and so it has become an everyday standard patient for us at this point in time."
Doctors have gotten better at quickly recognizing when COVID-19 patients are at risk of experiencing blood clots or debilitating "cytokine storms," where the body's immune system turns on itself, says Amesh Adalja, an infectious disease, critical care and emergency medicine physician who works at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security.
He says that doctors have developed standardized treatments that have been promulgated by groups such as the Infectious Diseases Society of America.
"We know that when people are getting standardized treatment, it makes it much easier to deal with the complications that occur because you already have protocols in place," Adalja says. "And that's definitely what's happened in many hospitals around the country."
But Horwitz and Mateen say that factors outside of doctors' control are also playing a role in driving down mortality. Horwitz believes that mask-wearing may be helping by reducing the initial dose of virus a person receives, thereby lessening the overall severity of illness for many patients.
And Mateen says that his data strongly suggest that keeping hospitals below their maximum capacity also helps to increase survival rates. When cases surge and hospitals fill up, "staff are stretched, mistakes are made, it's no one's fault — it's that the system isn't built to operate near 100%," he says.
For these reasons, Horwitz and Mateen believe that masking and social distancing will continue to play a big role in keeping the mortality rate down, especially as the U.S. and U.K. move into the fall and winter months.
Gates adds that the takeaway definitely should not be to cast the mask aside. There is still no cure for this disease, and even patients who recover can have long-term side effects. "A lot of my patients are still complaining of shortness of breath," she says. "Some of them have persistent changes on their CT scans and impacts on their lung functions."
And many people will continue to die, even if the rate has dropped. A recent estimate by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation suggests the total death count could reach well over 300,000 Americans by February.
"I do think this is good news," Horwitz says of her research findings, "but it does not make the coronavirus a benign illness."