npr--2020-07-22--Pentagon's Number 2 Officer Says Military Must Do Better On Diversity

Pentagon 's Number 2 Officer Says Military Must Do Better On Diversity The number-two American military officer , Air Force Gen. John Hyten , says the Pentagon must do more to create a diverse force , and also must deal with the rising problem of sexual misconduct by looking for answers outside the military .
Hyten , vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff , made his remarks in a wide-ranging interview with Steve Inskeep on NPR 's Morning Edition .
Asked about calls to change the names of American military bases named after Confederate generals , among them @ @ @ @ @ @ @ some military personnel want to do so , adding that it would be a `` good symbol . ''
But Hyten said for the most part , he 's told by the enlisted personnel and officers he meets that they want `` more meaningful change . ''
`` And what they point out to me is that when they look at the Joint Chiefs of Staff , they see all old white males and they say , ' I would like to see a military ... .
see myself in the most senior @ @ @ @ @ @ @ terms of my background , my race , my sex . ''
Hyten observed that the incoming Air Force chief of staff , Gen. Charles Brown , will be the first African American to sit on the Joint Chiefs since Gen. Colin Powell ended his term as chairman in 1993 .
`` That 's not right , '' Hyten said .
`` That 's absolutely not right . ''
Hyten said the percentage of minorities in the enlisted ranks of the military is higher than in the U.S. population at large , but @ @ @ @ @ @ @ That gap is stark in the small number of female African American military pilots , just 72 out of more than 3,300 women , according to a recent analysis by McClatchy News Service .
Hyten said the number of minority personnel in operations – such as pilots and infantry and armor – is small , and those are the areas where officers are most often slated for promotion .
The Pentagon , he said , has to do a better job recruiting and developing diverse officers by expanding its efforts to different parts @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Addressing another chronic challenge facing the military , Hyten said the Pentagon must finally look beyond uniformed leaders to deal with the ongoing and increasing incidence of sexual assault and sexual harassment in the ranks .
`` I think we have a problem with sexual harassment and sexual assault in the military , '' Hyten said .
Hyten said he and Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Mark Milley have decided to go outside the military to search for answers .
`` I think we have to go outside of our culture to solve this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ himself was accused of sexual misconduct last year by a female Air Force officer who was one of his aides .
She accused the general of unwanted touching and kissing .
An Air Force investigation found no evidence to support the allegations .
Following several closed-door Senate Armed Service Committee hearings , not one senator supported the accusations .
Asked about this , Hyten said : `` The truth matters .
The truth will come out . ''
Hyten said his daughter told him he had two options in terms of his response @ @ @ @ @ @ @ head down and pretend it never happened , and just get on with his life .
The other option , she said , `` 'You can make an effort to try to make a difference . '
And so when your daughter says something like that to you , you really only have one choice , and that 's to try to make a difference . ''
Hyten , who serves on the Pentagon 's coronavirus task force , agreed with immunologist Dr. Anthony Fauci who said the U.S. is not doing as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ virus .
`` I ca n't say everything is going as well as I would have liked it at this point , '' Hyten said .
`` So , I ca n't disagree with Dr. Fauci that way .
But I do think we 've made significant improvement in many , many areas . ''
Hyten also said , regarding military testing for the virus , `` We 're in a pretty good place , '' though there 's still a `` significant supply concern '' in the next couple of months .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ we stay that way as we go through the fall . ''
The general , a Harvard graduate who has specialized in missiles and space operations , said the challenge for the military in the coming years – against a possible adversary like China — is to bring together all military options : Army , Navy , Air Force as well as space and cyberspace to `` simultaneously and seamlessly '' go after a foe .
`` And developing the capability to do that , '' Hyten says , `` is going to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the next five years . ''

Pentagon's No. 2 Officer Says Military Must Do Better On Diversity
Enlarge this image toggle caption Nati Harnik/AP Nati Harnik/AP
The No. 2 American military officer, Air Force Gen. John Hyten, says the Pentagon must do more to create a diverse force and also must deal with the rising problem of sexual misconduct by looking for answers outside the military.
Hyten, vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, made his remarks in a wide-ranging interview with Steve Inskeep on NPR's Morning Edition.
Asked about calls to change the names of American military bases named after Confederate generals, among them Fort Bragg, N.C., Hyten acknowledged some military personnel want to do so, adding that it would be a "good symbol."
Pentagon's No. 2 Officer Says Military Must Do Better On Diversity Listen · 6:59 6:59
But Hyten said for the most part, he's told by the enlisted personnel and officers he meets that they want "more meaningful change."
"And what they point out to me is that when they look at the Joint Chiefs of Staff, they see all old white males and they say, 'I would like to see a military .... see myself in the most senior leadership positions in terms of myself in terms of my background, my race, my sex."
Hyten observed that the incoming Air Force chief of staff, Gen. Charles Brown, will be the first African American to sit on the Joint Chiefs since Gen. Colin Powell ended his term as chairman in 1993.
"That's not right," Hyten said. "That's absolutely not right."
Hyten said the percentage of minorities in the enlisted ranks of the military is higher than in the U.S. population at large, but not so in the officer corps.
That gap is stark in the small number of female African American military pilots, just 72 out of more than 3,300 women, according to a recent analysis by McClatchy News Service.
Hyten said the number of minority personnel in operations – such as pilots and infantry and armor – is small, and those are the areas where officers are most often slated for promotion. The Pentagon, he said, has to do a better job recruiting and developing diverse officers by expanding its efforts to different parts of the country and different schools.
Addressing another chronic challenge facing the military, Hyten said the Pentagon must finally look beyond uniformed leaders to deal with the ongoing and increasing incidence of sexual assault and sexual harassment in the ranks.
"I think we have a problem with sexual harassment and sexual assault in the military," Hyten said.
Hyten said he and Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Mark Milley have decided to go outside the military to search for answers.
"I think we have to go outside of our culture to solve this problem," Hyten said.
Hyten himself was accused of sexual misconduct last year by a female Air Force officer who was one of his aides. She accused the general of unwanted touching and kissing. An Air Force investigation found no evidence to support the allegations. Following several closed-door Senate Armed Service Committee hearings, not one senator supported the accusations.
Asked about this, Hyten said: "The truth matters. The truth will come out."
Hyten said his daughter told him he had two options in terms of his response. The first, to put his head down and pretend it never happened, and just get on with his life. The other option, she said, " 'You can make an effort to try to make a difference.' And so when your daughter says something like that to you, you really only have one choice, and that's to try to make a difference."
Thoughts on the coronavirus and challenges ahead
Hyten, who serves on the Pentagon's coronavirus task force, agreed with immunologist Dr. Anthony Fauci, who said the U.S. is not doing as well as other countries in combating the virus.
"I can't say everything is going as well as I would have liked it at this point," Hyten said. "So, I can't disagree with Dr. Fauci that way. But I do think we've made significant improvement in many, many areas."
Hyten also said, regarding military testing for the virus, "We're in a pretty good place," though there's still a "significant supply concern" in the next couple of months. "We just got to make sure we stay that way as we go through the fall."
The general, a Harvard graduate who has specialized in missiles and space operations, said the challenge for the military in the coming years — against a possible adversary like China — is to bring together all military options: Army, Navy, Air Force, as well as space and cyberspace, to "simultaneously and seamlessly" go after a foe.
"And developing the capability to do that," Hyten says, "is going to be one of the biggest challenges in the next five years."


npr--2020-07-22--Colleges Spent Months Planning For Fall, But A COVID-19 Surge Is Changing Everything

Colleges Spent Months Planning For Fall , But A COVID-19 Surge Is Changing Everything When Irem Ozturk got the email from Dickinson College in mid-June announcing `` we intend to bring all students back to campus , '' she was elated .
She 's originally from Turkey , but after two years on campus , she 's come to think of Carlisle , Pa. , as home .
`` I was thrilled because I felt like I was returning back home , excited to see friends and faculty , '' she says .
`` I felt happy .
I felt @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to . ''
That happiness lasted a little more than a month .
Last week , Dickinson announced a new decision : `` we have come to the very difficult decision that the fall 2020 semester will be remote . ''
`` It 's heartbreaking for me , but I ca n't necessarily be mad at them , '' says Ozturk , a junior who 's majoring in biology , and spending the summer in Pennsylvania , afraid to leave the U.S. for fear she would n't be able to return .
She @ @ @ @ @ @ @ remote : The testing capacity is n't there , there 's no hospital on campus and the virus is spreading .
But she 's frustrated by the uncertainty .
`` Four weeks from now , we 're supposed to have our first classes .
I have only four weeks to come up with a plan . ''
As the start of classes inches closer , more and more colleges are rolling back their earlier , more optimistic proclamations of an in-person or hybrid fall .
Those initial plans are now more likely to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for classes that would be mostly remote while others are calling for the semester to be entirely online .
On Monday , several historically Black colleges in Georgia announced they 'll begin the semester online , including Spelman College , Morehouse College and Clark Atlanta University .
The University of California at Berkeley will do the same , according to comments from the chancellor , Carol Christ , made at a Chronicle of Higher Education event .
`` After weeks of developing a very elaborate plan for a hybrid model in the fall @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a serious fraternity outbreak , that it was just too risky to teach face-to-face , '' Christ said .
Another major concern was bringing students back to campus from all over the country and the world .
`` How do you handle a mass migration event in a way that does n't provide seeds for outbreaks ? ''
Christ said .
'An honest appraisal of the facts' All summer , leaders at Spelman College had been crafting a plan to preserve some semblance of their traditional in-person fall .
Ultimately , they came @ @ @ @ @ @ @ July 1st — to bring about 600 freshmen back to campus .
The day students arrive on campus is a big deal for the elite , all-women 's college .
Mary Schmidt Campbell has savored all five years she 's presided over as Spelman 's president .
`` It 's really a fun occasion , '' she says .
`` We 're all wearing Spelman 's swag .
We have balloons .
And we 're out there just welcoming the parents , taking photos , and soaking in the tradition . ''
But @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and the efforts to stop that spread grew more political , Campbell felt it was `` irresponsible '' to bring students back .
On Monday , Campbell wrote a letter to the Spelman community : `` An honest appraisal of the facts compelled us to change course . ''
`` We felt very comfortable about the protocols and practices we were putting into place on our campuses , '' she says .
But the city of Atlanta and the state of Georgia were a different story .
`` Once our students walked outside @ @ @ @ @ @ @ into the city of Atlanta , they were in an environment that we felt was virtually unregulated . ''
To account for the transition , Spelman will discount tuition for the fall .
And with no students coming back to campus , the school will lose all of its revenue from room and board .
`` We 're experiencing huge financial losses , '' says Campbell .
They 'll use federal relief money from the CARES Act to plug some holes , and rely on financial gifts from supporters and alumni .
But @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to sway their decision , `` As a community representing the black community , '' Campbell explains , `` I really think it was a moral issue as well as a health and safety and educational issue . ''
'Minute by minute , second by second' As colleges have been announcing their plans , a group of students and recent graduates at Davidson College in North Carolina have been following along .
They make up the College Crisis Initiative , an effort of the college to track fall reopening plans for about 3,000 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are changing minute by minute , second by second for these schools , '' explains Katie Felten , a recent graduate and project leader on the team .
The data show there are nearly 300 schools that have yet to decide what fall looks like .
`` That was shocking to me , '' says Felten .
`` While I understand these institutions are struggling to stay above water right now financially , and they have so many decisions to make , it 's surprising that they do n't seem to be communicating @ @ @ @ @ @ @ planning on doing . ''
And although more than 500 schools still say they will either be fully in-person , or mostly in-person , more and more schools are shifting their classes online , reversing previous decisions .
Many of the original announcements , `` sounded so wonderful back then , but now sound absolutely crazy , '' says Felten , `` a bit of reality is starting to hit us . ''
She adds that an examination of the early plans shows that in June and early July , schools were more @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , whereas now that start days are weeks away , they 're realizing , `` there 's just no way . ''
In addition to tracking school 's announcements and plans , researchers with C2i are also tracking the percentage of classes listed as online in the course catalog .
That was a clue for Zoe Moskowitz , a student at Emory University in Atlanta .
Her school had sent an email saying they hoped to offer both in-person and online classes , and that dorms would be open .
`` When I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ excited and relieved and I was like , 'OK , we 're gon na have some sense of normalcy , whatever that means now , ' `` says Moskowitz .
`` For some reason , I thought it would be more like normal college . ''
But then the school asked students to re-enroll in fall classes .
When Moskowitz logged on to select her classes again , nearly all the options were virtual .
`` I felt like we 'd been tricked a little bit , '' she says , even though @ @ @ @ @ @ @ may need to change their original fall plan .
From then on , she was waiting for the inevitable : that classes would be online , and the bulk of dorms would be closed .
It came on Saturday .
Since she 's locked into a lease she signed last spring , she 'll be living near campus with roommates , taking all her classes online .
`` It 's a lot harder to learn , '' she says , but `` it is better for the public health perspective . ''
Stay @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the summer first started , Garrett Pittman , a student at Occidental College in Los Angeles , was hopeful .
He checked his email regularly , searching for updates on the fall reopening plan .
`` That 's all I 've been thinking and talking about for the last couple of weeks .
I 've been kind of like going crazy over the whole thing . ''
At first it was looking promising , but last week the school announced it , too , was shifting to all-remote .
`` I just knew @ @ @ @ @ @ @ gon na be online classes or no classes for me . ''
With the end of Spring semester online , Pittman had struggled .
He did n't feel like he was learning anything sitting behind a laptop , and says it was hard to focus .
`` Getting work done in the library is a different kind of work than working from my kitchen countertop while my dad 's watching TV down the hall and my mom is on the phone in the other room , '' he says .
`` If college @ @ @ @ @ @ @ would have not went to college . ''
He 's working for a roofing company right now , and he 's thinking he 'll take a break from school for the semester — maybe the year — and keep working in order to make some money .
For others , postponing school is n't really an option .
`` I 've had 'Class of 2023 ' in the back of my mind for a while , '' says Reagan Griffin Jr. , a sophomore at the University of Southern California .
He 's @ @ @ @ @ @ @ he says he 's got to stay focused on his academic goals .
Griffin actually expected USC to reverse their decision , based on the news stories he 'd read about the virus in Los Angeles , but that does n't make the announcement any less painful .
`` I do feel short-changed , '' he says .
`` You only get four years of college . ''
As a sophomore , he 's now had about the same amount of time in-person as on-line .
`` It 's extremely frustrating because you @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ? ''
He went to football games and tailgating , he had access to the school 's state-of-the-art media center .
He hosted a podcast .
Being in college , `` was everything that I thought it would be and more , '' he says .
`` And then , after one semester , that just gets stripped away .
It 's just the tease .
And it 's excruciatingly frustrating . ''
Despite the fact that all of his classes will be online , Griffin is moving to an LA apartment in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be close to campus .
With facilities closed , he says , that half-mile will feel like a world away .
Still , being close will make it feel like there 's still some hope for the semester .
`` If the coronavirus clears up a little bit , '' he says , `` I 'll be right there ready to pounce on every opportunity that there will be . ''

Colleges Spent Months Planning For Fall, But A COVID-19 Surge Is Changing Everything
Enlarge this image Suharu Ogawa for NPR Suharu Ogawa for NPR
When Irem Ozturk got the email from Dickinson College in mid-June announcing "we intend to bring all students back to campus," she was elated. She's originally from Turkey, but after two years on campus, she's come to think of Carlisle, Pa., as home. "I was thrilled because I felt like I was returning back home, excited to see friends and faculty," she says. "I felt happy. I felt like I had something to look forward to."
That happiness lasted a little more than a month.
Last week, Dickinson announced a new decision: "[W]e have come to the very difficult decision that the fall 2020 semester will be remote."
"It's heartbreaking for me, but I can't necessarily be mad at them," says Ozturk, a junior who's majoring in biology, and spending the summer in Pennsylvania, afraid to leave the U.S. for fear she wouldn't be able to return. She says she understands the reasoning to go remote: The testing capacity isn't there, there's no hospital on campus and the virus is spreading. But she says she's frustrated by the uncertainty. "Four weeks from now, we're supposed to have our first classes. I have only four weeks to come up with a plan."
As the start of classes inches closer, more and more colleges are rolling back their earlier, more optimistic proclamations of an in-person or hybrid fall. Those initial plans are now more likely to include hefty virtual options. Some call for classes that would be mostly remote, while others are calling for the semester to be entirely online.
On Monday, several historically Black colleges in Georgia announced they'll begin the semester online, including Spelman College, Morehouse College and Clark Atlanta University.
The University of California, Berkeley will do the same, according to comments from the chancellor, Carol Christ, made at a Chronicle of Higher Education event. "After weeks of developing a very elaborate plan for a hybrid model in the fall, we decided, after we had a serious fraternity outbreak, that it was just too risky to teach face-to-face," Christ said.
Another major concern was bringing students back to campus from all over the country and the world. "How do you handle a mass migration event in a way that doesn't provide seeds for outbreaks?" Christ asked.
''An honest appraisal of the facts''
All summer, leaders at Spelman had been crafting a plan to preserve some semblance of their traditional in-person fall. Ultimately, they came up with a plan — announced on July 1 — to bring about 600 freshmen back to campus.
The day students arrive on campus is a big deal for the elite, all-women's college. Mary Schmidt Campbell has savored all five years she's presided over as Spelman's president. "It's really a fun occasion," she says. "We're all wearing Spelman's swag. We have balloons. And we're out there just welcoming the parents, taking photos and soaking in the tradition."
But as infection rates grew in Georgia, and the efforts to stop that spread grew more political, Campbell felt it was "irresponsible" to bring students back. On Monday, Campbell wrote a letter to the Spelman community: "An honest appraisal of the facts compelled us to change course."
"We felt very comfortable about the protocols and practices we were putting into place on our campuses," she says. But the city of Atlanta and the state of Georgia were a different story. "Once our students walked outside of those gates, once they went into the city of Atlanta, they were in an environment that we felt was virtually unregulated."
To account for the transition, Spelman will discount tuition for the fall. And with no students coming back to campus, the school will lose all of its revenue from room and board. "We're experiencing huge financial losses," Campbell says. It will use federal relief money from the CARES Act to plug some holes and rely on financial gifts from supporters and alumni.
Education School Administrators Grapple With Reopening Decision School Administrators Grapple With Reopening Decision Listen · 6:53 6:53
But the impending financial hurt wasn't enough to sway the college's decision, "As a community representing the Black community," Campbell explains, "I really think it was a moral issue as well as a health and safety and educational issue."
''Minute by minute, second by second''
As colleges have been announcing their plans, a group of students and recent graduates at Davidson College in North Carolina have been following along. They make up the College Crisis Initiative, an effort of the college to track fall reopening plans for about 3,000 U.S. colleges and universities.
"Things are changing minute by minute, second by second for these schools," says Katie Felten, a recent graduate and project leader on the team. The data show there are nearly 300 schools that have yet to decide what fall looks like.
"That was shocking to me," Felten says. "While I understand these institutions are struggling to stay above water right now financially, and they have so many decisions to make, it's surprising that they don't seem to be communicating with their students about what they're planning on doing."
And although more than 500 schools still say they will either be fully in person, or mostly in person, more and more schools are shifting their classes online, reversing previous decisions. Many of the original announcements "sounded so wonderful back then, but now sound absolutely crazy," Felten says. "A bit of reality is starting to hit us."
She adds that an examination of the early plans shows that in June and early July, schools were more optimistic about their ability to acquire tests, whereas now that start days are weeks away, they're realizing that "there's just no way."
In addition to tracking schools' announcements and plans, researchers with the College Crisis Initiative are also taking note of the percentage of classes listed as online in course catalogs.
That was a clue for Zoe Moskowitz, a student at Emory University in Atlanta. Her school had sent an email saying it hoped to offer both in-person and online classes, and that dorms would be open.
"When I got that email, I was really excited and relieved and I was like, 'OK, we're gonna have some sense of normalcy, whatever that means now,' " Moskowitz says. "For some reason, I thought it would be more like normal college."
But then the school asked students to re-enroll in fall classes. When Moskowitz logged on to select her classes again, nearly all the options were virtual. "I felt like we'd been tricked a little bit," she says, even though the initial email had said the university may need to change its original fall plan. From then on, she was waiting for the inevitable: that classes would be online, and the bulk of dorms would be closed. It came on Saturday.
Since she's locked into a lease she signed last spring, she'll be living near campus with roommates, taking all her classes online. "It's a lot harder to learn," she says, but "it is better for the public health perspective."
Stay enrolled or take time off?
When the summer first started, Garrett Pittman, a student at Occidental College in Los Angeles, was hopeful. He checked his email regularly, searching for updates on the fall reopening plan. "That's all I've been thinking and talking about for the last couple of weeks." he says. "I've been kind of like going crazy over the whole thing."
At first it was looking promising, but last week the school announced it, too, was shifting to all-remote. "I just knew, you know, it's either gonna be online classes or no classes for me."
With the end of spring semester online, Pittman had struggled. He didn't feel like he was learning anything sitting behind a laptop and says it was hard to focus.
"Getting work done in the library is a different kind of work than working from my kitchen countertop, while my dad's watching TV down the hall and my mom is on the phone in the other room," he says. "If college was always all online, I probably would have not went to college."
He's working for a roofing company right now, and he's thinking he'll take a break from school for the semester — maybe the year — and keep working to make some money.
For others, postponing school isn't really an option. "I've had 'Class of 2023' in the back of my mind for a while," says Reagan Griffin Jr., a sophomore at the University of Southern California. He's a journalism major at the USC Annenberg School for Communication and Journalism, and he says he's got to stay focused on his academic goals. Griffin expected USC to reverse its decision, based on the news stories he'd read about the virus in Los Angeles, but that doesn't make the announcement any less painful.
"I do feel shortchanged," he says. "You only get four years of college."
As a sophomore, he's now had about the same amount of time in person as online. "It's extremely frustrating because you got a taste of it, right?" He went to football games and did some tailgating; he had access to the school's state-of-the-art media center. He hosted a podcast.
Being in college "was everything that I thought it would be and more," he says. "And then, after one semester, that just gets stripped away. It's just the tease. And it's excruciatingly frustrating."
Despite the fact that all of his classes will be online, Griffin is moving to an LA apartment in a few weeks, so he'll be close to campus. With facilities closed, he says, that half-mile will feel like a world away.
Still, being close will make it feel like there's still some hope for the semester. "If the coronavirus clears up a little bit," he says, "I'll be right there ready to pounce on every opportunity that there will be."


npr--2020-07-22--U.S. Disaster Response Scrambles To Protect People From Both Hurricanes And COVID-19

U.S .
Disaster Response Scrambles To Protect People From Both Hurricanes And COVID-19 With peak hurricane season yet to come , southeast communities are grappling with uncertainty over whether it 's possible to evacuate to shelters without risking coronavirus exposure .
A powerful storm could uproot tens of thousands of people at a time when coronavirus infections and deaths from COVID-19 are soaring through the region .
Congregate shelters , from school gyms to vast convention centers , risk becoming infection hot spots if evacuees pack into them .
Shelters are managed by the American Red Cross under the supervision @ @ @ @ @ @ @ But the Red Cross intends to adhere to new guidelines based on the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 's social distancing standards , which could cut shelter capacity by as much as 60 % , according to local emergency managers .
In planning for a hurricane season that scientists expect to be unusually active , FEMA is scrambling to find ways to house the possible overflow of evacuees from crowded shelters and is urging emergency managers to consider hotels left vacant by the economic downturn as a key alternative .
Yet many @ @ @ @ @ @ @ even if — to incorporate hotels into their evacuation plans .
Florida seems to have made the most progress in building a network of hotels as alternative shelters .
But details , such as who will get rooms , remain unresolved .
In some states , including Alabama , county emergency managers say they 're not planning to rely on hotels at all .
The United States ' patchwork disaster response programs — led by localities and financially backed by FEMA — might not be enough to protect people against both hurricanes and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ more than two dozen emergency management officials and experts .
Public health experts warn that the consequences could be grave , in part because residents who evacuate to shelters , rather than stay with family or book their own hotel rooms , are more likely to be seriously harmed by COVID-19 if they are infected .
`` Those are the same people who have less access to health care , less health insurance , and are more likely to have unknown or uncontrolled comorbidities and may be at higher risk of death or @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Emily Landon , an infectious diseases specialist at University of Chicago Medicine .
`` The last thing you want to do is take people from a dangerous situation involving a hurricane and move them into a dangerous situation involving COVID . ''
CDC says hotels `` ideal '' as possible shelters Emergency managers worry that the fragmented shelter planning could leave evacuees without a clear place to go when a storm approaches — or evacuees could end up crammed into facilities without social distancing .
`` A hurricane is a very imminent threat @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Zach Hood , emergency management director for Baldwin County , Alabama .
`` We have to mitigate against the immediate loss of life , even if it puts everyone in a compromised position to deal with and contain coronavirus . ''
Emergency managers also fear that the pandemic will keep people out of shelters , unless they show ahead of time that evacuation can be done safely .
Nancy McCall , a 75-year-old Hurricane Katrina survivor , lives in Coden , Ala. , a coastal community prone to flooding .
In the past @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a high school used as a shelter .
But McCall says she now plans to avoid it at all costs .
`` No way on earth , '' she says .
`` I 'd stay outside before I 'd go up in that school . ''
The school is small , and people in Alabama have n't been taking the pandemic seriously by wearing masks or social distancing , she says .
McCall lives on a fixed income and says she likely wo n't be able to afford her own hotel room .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ as a shelter alternative , she probably wo n't get a room for free .
If there 's a bad storm this year , McCall plans to drive her truck to the top of a hill and park under a tree .
FEMA says its pandemic-specific hurricane guidance will keep evacuations safe .
It recommends the use not only of hotels but of classrooms and empty dormitories .
`` I 'm confident that we 're seeing a very assertive planning effort at the state and local level in a lot of communities , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ administrator for response and recovery at FEMA .
The CDC urges emergency managers to prioritize hotels , dormitories and small shelters over large shelters .
In a recent webinar , CDC senior health advisor Mollie Mahany said hotels are `` ideal . ''
They offer private bathrooms and usually have individual ventilation systems , and many are wheelchair accessible , often an advantage over standard shelters .
But at-risk coastal communities of all sizes have been cool to the evacuation alternatives , despite high coronavirus infection rates .
Like many places in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ before the pandemic , according to Jennifer Horney , founding director and professor with the University of Delaware 's epidemiology program .
The city , a COVID-19 and hurricane hot spot , has held off lining up many hotel rooms .
It 's prioritizing facilities it already has agreements with , such as the George R. Brown Convention Center , used during Hurricane Harvey , and university dormitories .
Nickea Bradley , Houston 's deputy director for emergency management , says hotels are n't a reliable alternative because the city does n't own @ @ @ @ @ @ @ turn away evacuees who test positive for the coronavirus .
Houston is also hesitant to enlist hotels because FEMA 's financial help might not be enough .
`` Whether FEMA is paying for it or not , I 'm sure there 's a limit to what they 'll reimburse for , '' says Bradley .
`` So I think that 's the part where there 's a bit of caution . ''
FEMA does not set aside money for emergency hotel rentals .
Instead , it plans to partially reimburse localities by tapping @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
FEMA says it 's already providing financial support for communities to use hotels as shelters .
According to Bibo , 40 states , three tribal governments and one U.S. territory have tapped it .
Susan Cutter , a disaster expert at the University of South Carolina , says financial concerns are warranted .
State and local governments using hotels will be responsible for covering a quarter of the cost , a possible hardship because of sharply reduced tax revenues .
If disasters this year prove large , FEMA 's promised funding might @ @ @ @ @ @ @ no funding available , '' Cutter adds .
This year 's hurricane season boosts the chances of large evacuations and is a prime example of how climate change multiplies the damage from public health crises .
Climate change has made powerful hurricanes more likely over the last 40 years , and sea level rise and warmer oceans make catastrophic flooding more likely , even from weaker storms .
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has predicted three to six major hurricanes in 2020 , compared with three major storms in a typical season @ @ @ @ @ @ @ gathered in the Atlantic Ocean this year .
It 's the earliest on record that a sixth named storm has formed .
Just east of Mobile , Ala. , Baldwin County 's location on the Gulf of Mexico makes it a frequent hurricane target .
It can typically shelter about 5,000 people during hurricanes .
County officials say they plan to nearly triple space allotted to each evacuee group inside shelters , dramatically reducing capacity .
The county has made informal agreements with additional facilities to house any overflow of evacuees , but @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of pre-pandemic levels .
But Baldwin County , like many communities , is n't considering using hotels .
In the county and across the southeast , hotels often sit in hurricane evacuation zones along the coast , making them ineligible as shelters .
And some communities say it would be too difficult and expensive to transport evacuees several hours inland to hotels in other cities .
Planners also worry that if there is an evacuation order , more people this year might need shelter .
More than 30 million people are currently collecting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ unemployment benefit set to expire at the end of this month , many might lack money to flee a hurricane or pay for a hotel on their own .
Hotel room availability could also become a barrier , say emergency managers .
Evacuees who can afford rooms could fill up hotels as a hurricane moved toward landfall .
First responders and utility workers travel to disaster areas , and they book whole blocks of rooms .
`` What I worry about is , we 're going to be competing , '' says Mike @ @ @ @ @ @ @ emergency management .
Florida , with one of the largest state disaster relief budgets in the U.S. , is apparently the furthest along .
The state created an interactive map that features the more than 500 hotels that have expressed interest in serving as hurricane shelters .
Jared Moskowitz , director of the Florida Division of Emergency Management , says he 'd like that number to reach 1,000 .
Emergency managers ca n't always predict how much shelter capacity will be needed .
During Hurricane Dorian in 2019 , the strongest hurricane ever @ @ @ @ @ @ @ only 11,000 Floridians used public disaster shelters .
By contrast , during Hurricane Irma in 2017 , 350,000 people packed into shelters .
It 's unclear how many rooms will ultimately be available for Floridians .
Moskowitz says the state ca n't afford to book entire hotels ahead of time .
Instead , the state will likely enter into pre-emergency contracts with hotels to reserve a portion of available rooms for government use .
In Florida , Miami-Dade County has 82 shelters with 112,000 spaces without social distancing and is also negotiating with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ county 's director of emergency management , Frank Rollason , says he plans to open double the number of shelters he normally would in order to spread people out .
But for a Category 3 hurricane or stronger , he says he could need every last one of those 112,000 spaces .
Expanding capacity outside of that is limited because not every building is strong enough to withstand a hurricane .
And the stronger the storm , the more people who would need to evacuate .
Other details , including staffing and health-screening @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with hotels .
And it 's unclear who will get available hotel rooms .
In Florida , county emergency managers will decide .
Some say they are reserving their rooms for people who have tested positive for the coronavirus or are at high risk for contracting COVID-19 .
Emergency managers in other states say that decisions about who gets rooms could be made at the last minute .
Could FEMA have done more ?
The CDC made recommendations for cutting transmission risk at congregate shelters through social distancing , health screenings and temperature @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and isolating people with symptoms .
Public health experts agree these steps would reduce risk but warn they might fall short .
`` You 're still gambling , '' Landon , the infectious diseases specialist , says , pointing to the possibility of asymptomatic spread and the difficulty of shelter staff enforcing social distancing and mask wearing .
Some emergency management experts have praised FEMA for offering guidance to state and local governments and for providing financial support .
But critics say FEMA 's financial support is n't enough .
They want the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with state and local governments at a time of unprecedented hardship .
Planning efforts have been `` too siloed '' at different levels of government , says Bryan Koon , vice president of homeland security and emergency management for IEM , an emergency management consulting firm .
`` Normally we say every disaster is local and they need to come up with their own plans , '' he says .
The convergence of hurricanes and the pandemic `` could have benefited from a more collaborative effort to make sure that we 're not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ '' Koon adds : `` I 'm afraid we could get caught short . ''

U.S. Disaster Response Scrambles To Protect People From Both Hurricanes And COVID-19
Enlarge this image toggle caption Joe Raedle/Getty Images Joe Raedle/Getty Images
With peak hurricane season yet to come, southeast communities are grappling with uncertainty over whether it's possible to evacuate to shelters without risking coronavirus exposure.
A powerful storm could uproot tens of thousands of people at a time when coronavirus infections and deaths from COVID-19 are soaring through the region. Congregate shelters, from school gyms to vast convention centers, risk becoming infection hot spots if evacuees pack into them. Many shelters are managed by the American Red Cross under the supervision of the Federal Emergency Management Agency. But the Red Cross intends to adhere to new guidelines based on the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's social distancing standards, which could cut shelter capacity by as much as 60%, according to local emergency managers.
In planning for a hurricane season that scientists expect to be unusually active, FEMA is seeking ways to house the possible overflow of evacuees from crowded shelters and is urging emergency managers to consider hotels left vacant by the economic downturn as a key alternative.
Yet many emergency managers are unsure how — or even if — to incorporate hotels into their evacuation plans. Florida seems to have made the most progress in building a network of hotels as alternative shelters. But details, such as who will get rooms, remain unresolved. In some states, including Alabama, county emergency managers say they're not planning to rely on hotels at all.
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The United States' patchwork disaster response programs — led by localities and financially backed by FEMA — might not be enough to protect people against both hurricanes and the coronavirus, according to interviews with more than two dozen emergency management officials and experts.
Public health experts warn that the consequences could be grave, in part because residents who evacuate to shelters, rather than stay with family or book their own hotel rooms, are more likely to be seriously harmed by COVID-19 if they are infected.
"Those are the same people who have less access to health care, less health insurance, and are more likely to have unknown or uncontrolled comorbidities and may be at higher risk of death or complications from COVID," says Dr. Emily Landon, an infectious diseases specialist at University of Chicago Medicine. "The last thing you want to do is take people from a dangerous situation involving a hurricane and move them into a dangerous situation involving COVID."
Enlarge this image toggle caption Joe Raedle/Getty Images Joe Raedle/Getty Images
CDC says hotels "ideal" as possible shelters
Emergency managers worry that the fragmented shelter planning could leave evacuees without a clear place to go when a storm approaches — or evacuees could end up crammed into facilities without social distancing.
"A hurricane is a very imminent threat to life and safety," says Zach Hood, emergency management director for Baldwin County, Alabama. "We have to mitigate against the immediate loss of life, even if it puts everyone in a compromised position to deal with and contain coronavirus."
Emergency managers also fear that the pandemic will keep people out of shelters, unless they show ahead of time that evacuation can be done safely. Nancy McCall, a 75-year-old Hurricane Katrina survivor, lives in Coden, Ala., a coastal community prone to flooding. In the past, she and her family evacuated to a high school used as a shelter. But McCall says she now plans to avoid it at all costs.
"No way on earth," she says. "I'd stay outside before I'd go up in that school."
The school is small, and people in Alabama haven't been taking the pandemic seriously by wearing masks or social distancing, she says. McCall lives on a fixed income and says she likely won't be able to afford her own hotel room. Because local leaders aren't prioritizing hotels as a shelter alternative, she probably won't get a room for free. If there's a bad storm this year, McCall plans to drive her truck to the top of a hill and park under a tree.
FEMA says its pandemic-specific hurricane guidance will keep evacuations safe. It recommends the use not only of hotels but of classrooms and empty dormitories. "I'm confident that we're seeing a very assertive planning effort at the state and local level in a lot of communities," says David Bibo, acting associate administrator for response and recovery at FEMA.
The CDC urges emergency managers to prioritize hotels, dormitories and small shelters over large shelters. In a recent webinar, CDC senior health advisor Mollie Mahany said hotels are "ideal." They offer private bathrooms and usually have individual ventilation systems, and many are wheelchair accessible, often an advantage over standard shelters.
But at-risk coastal communities of all sizes have been cool to the evacuation alternatives, despite high coronavirus infection rates.
Like many places in the southeast, Houston lacked adequate shelter space before the pandemic, according to Jennifer Horney, founding director and professor with the University of Delaware's epidemiology program. The city, a COVID-19 and hurricane hot spot, has held off lining up many hotel rooms. It's prioritizing facilities it already has agreements with, such as the George R. Brown Convention Center, used during Hurricane Harvey, and university dormitories.
Nickea Bradley, Houston's deputy director for emergency management, says hotels aren't a reliable alternative because the city doesn't own them and hotels have the discretion to turn away evacuees who test positive for the coronavirus.
Houston is also hesitant to enlist hotels because FEMA's financial help might not be enough. "Whether FEMA is paying for it or not, I'm sure there's a limit to what they'll reimburse for," says Bradley. "So I think that's the part where there's a bit of caution."
FEMA does not set aside money for emergency hotel rentals. Instead, it plans to partially reimburse localities by tapping its $80 billion disaster relief fund. FEMA says it's already providing financial support for communities to use hotels as shelters. According to Bibo, 40 states, three tribal governments and one U.S. territory have tapped it.
Susan Cutter, a disaster expert at the University of South Carolina, says financial concerns are warranted. State and local governments using hotels will be responsible for covering a quarter of the cost, a possible hardship because of sharply reduced tax revenues. If disasters this year prove large, FEMA's promised funding might "not be delivered because there's no funding available," Cutter adds.
Enlarge this image toggle caption Logan Cyrus/AFP via Getty Images Logan Cyrus/AFP via Getty Images
This year could bring high shelter demand
This year's hurricane season boosts the chances of large evacuations and is a prime example of how climate change multiplies the damage from public health crises. Climate change has made powerful hurricanes more likely over the last 40 years, and sea level rise and warmer oceans make catastrophic flooding more likely, even from weaker storms. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has predicted three to six major hurricanes in 2020, compared with three major storms in a typical season. Already, seven named storms have gathered in the Atlantic Ocean this year. It's the earliest on record that a seventh named storm has formed.
Just east of Mobile, Ala., Baldwin County's location on the Gulf of Mexico makes it a frequent hurricane target. It can typically shelter about 5,000 people during hurricanes. County officials say they plan to nearly triple space allotted to each evacuee group inside shelters, dramatically reducing capacity. The county has made informal agreements with additional facilities to house any overflow of evacuees, but total shelter capacity will still fall short of pre-pandemic levels.
But Baldwin County, like many communities, isn't considering using hotels. In the county and across the southeast, hotels often sit in hurricane evacuation zones along the coast, making them ineligible as shelters. And some communities say it would be too difficult and expensive to transport evacuees several hours inland to hotels in other cities.
Planners also worry that if there is an evacuation order, more people this year might need shelter. More than 30 million people are currently collecting unemployment benefits, and with the federal unemployment benefit set to expire at the end of this month, many might lack money to flee a hurricane or pay for a hotel on their own.
Hotel room availability could also become a barrier, say emergency managers. Evacuees who can afford rooms could fill up hotels as a hurricane moved toward landfall. First responders and utility workers travel to disaster areas, and they book whole blocks of rooms. "What I worry about is, we're going to be competing," says Mike Sprayberry, North Carolina's director of emergency management.
Florida makes limited progress
Florida, with one of the largest state disaster relief budgets in the U.S., is apparently the furthest along. The state created an interactive map that features the more than 500 hotels that have expressed interest in serving as hurricane shelters. Jared Moskowitz, director of the Florida Division of Emergency Management, says he'd like that number to reach 1,000.
Emergency managers can't always predict how much shelter capacity will be needed. During Hurricane Dorian in 2019, the strongest hurricane ever to threaten Florida's Atlantic coast, only 11,000 Floridians used public disaster shelters. By contrast, during Hurricane Irma in 2017, 350,000 people packed into shelters.
It's unclear how many rooms will ultimately be available for Floridians. Moskowitz says the state can't afford to book entire hotels ahead of time. Instead, the state will likely enter into pre-emergency contracts with hotels to reserve a portion of available rooms for government use.
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In Florida, Miami-Dade County has 82 shelters with 112,000 spaces without social distancing and is also negotiating with hotels. For smaller storms, the county's director of emergency management, Frank Rollason, says he plans to open double the number of shelters he normally would in order to spread people out. But for a Category 3 hurricane or stronger, he says he could need every last one of those 112,000 spaces. Expanding capacity outside of that is limited because not every building is strong enough to withstand a hurricane. And the stronger the storm, the more people who would need to evacuate.
Other details, including staffing and health-screening protocols, also must be worked out with hotels. And it's unclear who will get available hotel rooms. In Florida, county emergency managers will decide. Some say they are reserving their rooms for people who have tested positive for the coronavirus or are at high risk for contracting COVID-19. Emergency managers in other states say that decisions about who gets rooms could be made at the last minute.
Could FEMA have done more?
The CDC made recommendations for cutting transmission risk at congregate shelters through social distancing, health screenings and temperature checks, face coverings, hand-washing stations and isolating people with symptoms. Public health experts agree these steps would reduce risk but warn they might fall short. "You're still gambling," Landon, the infectious diseases specialist, says, pointing to the possibility of asymptomatic spread and the difficulty of shelter staff enforcing social distancing and mask wearing.
Some emergency management experts have praised FEMA for offering guidance to state and local governments and for providing financial support.
But critics say FEMA's financial support isn't enough. They want the agency to take a more hands-on approach with state and local governments at a time of unprecedented hardship. Planning efforts have been "too siloed" at different levels of government, says Bryan Koon, vice president of homeland security and emergency management for IEM, an emergency management consulting firm.
"Normally we say every disaster is local and they need to come up with their own plans," he says. The convergence of hurricanes and the pandemic "could have benefited from a more collaborative effort to make sure that we're not leaving people behind in this situation."
Koon adds: "I'm afraid we could get caught short."
Huo Jingnan contributed additional reporting to this story.


npr--2020-07-22--Rapid, Cheap, Less Accurate Coronavirus Testing Has A Place, Scientists Say

Rapid , Cheap , Less Accurate Coronavirus Testing Has A Place , Scientists Say Anybody who has waited for hours in line for a coronavirus test , or who has had to wait a week or more for results , knows there has to be a better way .
In fact , the next generation of tests will focus on speed .
But what should the Food and Drug Administration do with a rapid test that is comparatively cheap but much less accurate than the tests currently on the market ?
A test like that is ready to go up @ @ @ @ @ @ @ argue it could be valuable despite its shortcomings .
At first blush , you would n't want a medical test to be pushing out untrustworthy results .
And that 's certainly the case for a medical diagnosis .
But rapid test could be valuable if used to screen large numbers of people for infection repeatedly and frequently .
For example , some of the rapid tests under development do n't detect the virus in a person who is in the early or late stages of infection — they only catch an infection at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Harvard T.H .
Chan School of Public Health says that 's OK , under certain circumstances .
`` As long as you 're using the test on a pretty frequent basis , '' Mina says , `` you will be more likely than not to catch the person on the day they might go out and transmit .
And they 'll know to stay home . ''
To be useful , such tests need to be widely available and affordable , he says .
`` I envision a time when everyone can @ @ @ @ @ @ @ $ 50 and have those and use them every other day for a couple of months . ''
When it comes to controlling the epidemic , that could be an appealing alternative to the current laboratory-based system , an overburdened process that has become a serious bottleneck .
These days , some people are waiting a week or more for results , and by then they have potentially spread the virus to others .
Highly accurate at-home tests are probably many months away .
But Mina argues they could be here sooner if @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for the coronavirus meet really high accuracy standards of 80 percent or better .
A Massachusetts-based startup called E25Bio has developed this sort of rapid test .
Founder and Chief Technology Officer Irene Bosch says her firm has field-tested it in hospitals .
`` What we learned is that the test is able to be very efficient for people who have a lot of virus , '' she says .
It 's nowhere near as good at detecting low levels of virus .
But you can have the most sensitive test in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ you only test people once a month , that test , too , will miss a lot of people who are infected .
So , her company is focusing on quick , easy and cheap .
`` These are very simple strips , '' she says .
`` They 're [ like ] miniaturized pregnancy tests .
So , you can imagine you ca n't find anything more simple than this . ''
The sample for this test would come via a swab of the nose or mouth .
Results would be available @ @ @ @ @ @ @ manufacturer .
Most important is the price .
`` The test has to be affordable .
It can not work if it 's not affordable , '' Bosch says .
`` Right now it might cost $ 3 to make it [ or ] $ 4 to make it .
So affordable will be what it costs . ''
E25Bio would like to set the price at cost , though for the start-up company to stay in business , Bosch says , the test would need a government subsidy .
The company has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ produce a million of these tests a week , she says , adding that another company in the United Kingdom is poised to produce 8 million tests a day .
E25Bio has asked the governor of Massachusetts to approve the rapid test for sale — not for use at home just yet , but in pharmacies and out in the community .
To bring people back to work , or teachers and students back to the classroom safely , `` this is the kind of test you need , '' Bosch says .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ test with a smartphone app .
The app would take a photo of the test result and upload it to a public database .
The information would be stripped of personal details and precise location , but if people volunteered to take this step , she says , the public could crowdsource information about the spread of the coronavirus that would be useful to researchers .
The information would also be available to public health authorities .
The company is in talks with the FDA about approving this test , even though it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ agency , which has so far required a higher level of accuracy .
She is n't sure how the FDA is responding to the company 's request .
`` This is a Pandora 's box and this like is a black box , '' she says with a laugh .
In other words , the FDA does n't want to take an action that backfires , and it also does n't tend to reveal its thinking as it deliberates .
The FDA told NPR that the agency weighs the benefits and risks of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ elaborate on its thinking about this novel testing strategy .
`` There 's always a tradeoff here .
There 's no free lunch , '' says Trevor Martin , chief executive officer of the Bay Area biotech startup , Mammoth Biosciences .
His company is also making a rapid test , based on the gene-editing technology CRISPR .
Though CRISPR is best known for its ability to edit DNA , part of that process involves pinpointing specific sequences .
And by targeting the coronavirus ' genetic sequence , this approach can be highly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ goal is to have a test that delivers extremely high-quality results with a single test .
The same as you would get in a lab , or better , '' Martin says .
His company 's test is n't likely to be on the market until the end of the year , which seems like the distant future , considering the pace of the epidemic .
He agrees tests need to be affordable , but he did n't name a price range for the test .
Martin says precision has a place in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ test that can detect very low levels of virus is more likely to pick up someone with a mild infection , even in the absence of symptoms .
And that 's `` super important if you want to prevent spread , '' he says .
Other labs are pursuing tests based on CRISPR as well .
And two companies have temporary approval by the FDA to sell a rapid test that detects certain proteins — antigens — from the coronavirus .
These antigen tests are less accurate than the standard PCR tests , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The average wholesale price for antigen tests is in the $ 20 range .
Such tests are currently in limited supply , and available at hospitals , medical clinics and some doctor 's offices .
It 's unlikely that there will be one single testing solution for the coronavirus , and the best blend of approaches is still a work in progress .
You can contact NPR Science Correspondent Richard Harris at rharris @ npr.org .

Rapid, Cheap, Less Accurate Coronavirus Testing Has A Place, Scientists Say
Enlarge this image toggle caption Mario Tama/Getty Images Mario Tama/Getty Images
Anybody who has waited for hours in line for a coronavirus test, or who has had to wait a week or more for results, knows there has to be a better way. In fact, the next generation of tests will focus on speed.
But what should the Food and Drug Administration do with a rapid test that is comparatively cheap but much less accurate than the tests currently on the market? A test like that is ready to go up for FDA approval, and some scientists argue it could be valuable despite its shortcomings.
At first blush, you wouldn't want a medical test to be pushing out untrustworthy results. And that's certainly the case for a medical diagnosis. But rapid test could be valuable if used to screen large numbers of people for infection repeatedly and frequently.
For example, some of the rapid tests under development don't detect the virus in a person who is in the early or late stages of infection — they only catch an infection at its peak. Dr. Michael Mina at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health says that's OK, under certain circumstances.
"As long as you're using the test on a pretty frequent basis," Mina says, "you will be more likely than not to catch the person on the day they might go out and transmit. And they'll know to stay home."
To be useful, such tests need to be widely available and affordable, he says. "I envision a time when everyone can order a pack of 50 tests for $50 and have those and use them every other day for a couple of months."
When it comes to controlling the epidemic, that could be an appealing alternative to the current laboratory-based system, an overburdened process that has become a serious bottleneck. These days, some people are waiting a week or more for results, and by then they have potentially spread the virus to others.
Highly accurate at-home tests are probably many months away. But Mina argues they could be here sooner if the FDA would not demand that tests for the coronavirus meet really high accuracy standards of 80 percent or better.
A Massachusetts-based startup called E25Bio has developed this sort of rapid test. Founder and Chief Technology Officer Irene Bosch says her firm has field-tested it in hospitals. "What we learned is that the test is able to be very efficient for people who have a lot of virus," she says.
It's nowhere near as good at detecting low levels of virus. But you can have the most sensitive test in the world, she says, and if you only test people once a month, that test, too, will miss a lot of people who are infected. So, her company is focusing on quick, easy and cheap.
"These are very simple strips," she says. "They're [like] miniaturized pregnancy tests. So, you can imagine you can't find anything more simple than this."
The sample for this test would come via a swab of the nose or mouth. Results would be available within 15 minutes, according to the manufacturer. Most important is the price.
"The test has to be affordable. It cannot work if it's not affordable," Bosch says. "Right now it might cost $3 to make it [or] $4 to make it. So affordable will be what it costs."
E25Bio would like to set the price at cost, though for the start-up company to stay in business, Bosch says, the test would need a government subsidy. The company has a local partner that's poised to produce a million of these tests a week, she says, adding that another company in the United Kingdom is poised to produce 8 million tests a day.
E25Bio has asked the governor of Massachusetts to approve the rapid test for sale — not for use at home just yet, but in pharmacies and out in the community.
To bring people back to work, or teachers and students back to the classroom safely, "this is the kind of test you need," Bosch says.
The company would like to pair the test with a smartphone app. The app would take a photo of the test result and upload it to a public database. The information would be stripped of personal details and precise location, but if people volunteered to take this step, she says, the public could crowdsource information about the spread of the coronavirus that would be useful to researchers. The information would also be available to public health authorities.
The company is in talks with the FDA about approving this test, even though it would be a departure for the federal agency, which has so far required a higher level of accuracy.
She isn't sure how the FDA is responding to the company's request. "This is a Pandora's box and this like is a black box," she says with a laugh.
In other words, the FDA doesn't want to take an action that backfires, and it also doesn't tend to reveal its thinking as it deliberates. The FDA told NPR that the agency weighs the benefits and risks of all coronavirus tests, but didn't elaborate on its thinking about this novel testing strategy.
"There's always a tradeoff here. There's no free lunch," says Trevor Martin, chief executive officer of the Bay Area biotech startup, Mammoth Biosciences. His company is also making a rapid test, based on the gene-editing technology CRISPR. Though CRISPR is best known for its ability to edit DNA, part of that process involves pinpointing specific sequences. And by targeting the coronavirus' genetic sequence, this approach can be highly accurate, he says.
"Our goal is to have a test that delivers extremely high-quality results with a single test. The same as you would get in a lab, or better," Martin says.
His company's test isn't likely to be on the market until the end of the year, which seems like the distant future, considering the pace of the epidemic. He agrees tests need to be affordable, but he didn't name a price range for the test.
Martin says precision has a place in controlling the epidemic, too. A test that can detect very low levels of virus is more likely to pick up someone with a mild infection, even in the absence of symptoms. And that's "super important if you want to prevent spread," he says.
Other labs are pursuing tests based on CRISPR as well. And two companies have temporary approval by the FDA to sell a rapid test that detects certain proteins — antigens — from the coronavirus. These antigen tests are less accurate than the standard PCR tests, which detect genetic material from the virus. The average wholesale price for antigen tests is in the $20 range. Such tests are currently in limited supply, and available at hospitals, medical clinics and some doctor's offices.
It's unlikely that there will be one single testing solution for the coronavirus, and the best blend of approaches is still a work in progress.
You can contact NPR Science Correspondent Richard Harris at rharris@npr.org.


npr--2020-07-22--Down In The Polls, Trump Pitches Fear: 'They Want To Destroy Our Suburbs'

Down In The Polls , Trump Pitches Fear : 'They Want To Destroy Our Suburbs' President Trump has a message for suburban voters .
And it 's not a subtle one .
`` They want to destroy our suburbs , '' Trump recently warned in a call with supporters .
`` People have worked all their lives to get into a community , and now they 're going to watch it go to hell , '' he said from the South Lawn of the White House .
Trump has been issuing increasingly dire and outlandish warnings about what Democrats will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ suburbanites will face rising crime and falling home values if they elect Joe Biden .
The message : be afraid , be very afraid .
The newest ad from Trump 's campaign is a very dramatic dramatization of an older white woman calling 9-1-1 when she sees an intruder .
But no one is there to answer her call for help .
As she is attacked , the words `` You wo n't be safe in Joe Biden 's America '' flash on the screen .
This is all based on the false @ @ @ @ @ @ @ police .
Biden has specifically said he does n't want to defund the police .
His campaign says these are `` smears '' that are n't working .
From July 1 to July 20 , Trump 's campaign spent more than $ 18 million on television ads hitting this theme , according to the tracking firm Ad Analytics .
It 's a similar argument to one Trump made ahead of the 2018 midterms , that caravans of migrants would cross the border bringing gangs and crime .
Democrats won control of the House @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a suburban backlash to Trump .
`` People are not afraid of what he 's trying to make them afraid of , '' said Christine Matthews , a Republican pollster who has been critical of Trump .
In 2016 , voters in the suburbs made up 50 percent of the electorate .
Trump won those voters narrowly that year .
Now polls show him trailing Biden badly in the suburbs .
Trump had n't explicitly addressed suburban voters until about a month ago , when in a speech to young supporters gathered at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ racial justice protests in Seattle , said it was bedlam .
`` That 's exactly what will come to every city near you , every suburb and community in America , if the radical-left Democrats are put in charge , '' Trump claimed .
From there , the appeals to suburban voters and his ideas about what issues matter to them have only gotten more direct .
Trump has pushed for schools to re-open , threatening to pull funding if they do n't without explaining how it can be done safely while coronavirus @ @ @ @ @ @ @ an Obama-era fair housing regulation , promising to sign an executive order halting it .
The 2015 regulation deals with racial segregation of housing and requires local municipalities to address historic patterns of it .
But Trump warned last week that it would `` destroy '' the suburbs .
`` Your home will go down in value and crime rates will rapidly rise , '' he said .
`` People have worked all their lives to get into a community , and now they 're going to watch it go to hell .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ I 'm here . ''
That kind of racial view , pitting whites in the suburbs against Blacks and Latinos who might move in , is an appeal that seems to stem from an anachronistic view of the suburbs .
`` He thinks it 's basically the planned development of Levittown in the 1960s as opposed to today 's suburbs , which are multiracial , diverse and highly educated , '' Matthews said .
Many suburban voters do think liberal activists have overstepped , said Ryan Costello , a former Republican congressman from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ added , they do n't ascribe that to Joe Biden , and they do n't think he is going to defund their local police departments .
Costello said that , right now , people in the suburbs are worried about schools opening safely , with the emphasis on safely .
They 're worried about the coronavirus and the economy .
`` This is really a referendum on how President Trump is handling the pandemic , '' Costello said .
`` That 's the kind of stuff that suburban voters that do n't have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ look at .
And that 's where they 're going to render their value judgments . ''
And so far , Americans largely disapprove of the job Trump is doing handling the coronavirus .
On average , 58 % now say they disapprove of it .
Costello announced his retirement from the House of Representatives in 2018 rather than face near-certain defeat in a wave led by suburban backlash to Trump .
He questions the logic of the president 's current political strategy .
`` If you 're going to attack an opponent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is relatable in that attack on an opponent , '' Costello said .
`` I live in the suburbs , and I do n't know how he would eliminate the suburbs .
It does n't make much sense to me . ''
The Trump campaign is downplaying this erosion of a key group that helped with his win in 2016 .
`` President Trump brought new voters into the Republican Party in 2016 and has realigned the political electorate , creating a broad coalition of support across all demographics that will carry him @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Trump campaign deputy national press secretary Samantha Zager in an email when asked about Biden 's apparent lead in the suburbs .
In 2016 , Trump brought in a surge of rural white voters , who do n't live in the suburbs , but may respond to his messages about urban crime and the dangers of the left .
`` What does suburban really mean ? ''
Ernest McGowen , an associate professor of political science at the University of Richmond , asked rhetorically .
`` What does it mean as a thing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is it an identity ?
McGowen , who has studied African Americans in the suburbs , and lives in the suburbs himself , says that suburban identity is about accomplishment , but not excess .
In the suburbs , you know your kids will go to good schools with extracurricular activities .
You 'll need a lawnmower .
And McGowen points out , that does n't mean you are all that close to the city anymore .
The suburbs have expanded into what used to be rural areas .
`` What we 're @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be part of the metro in a few years , '' McGowen said .
`` And what we 're calling exurbs is going to actually be the suburbs as we would know them . ''
The suburbs are again shaping up to be where 2020 could be won or lost .

Down In The Polls, Trump Pitches Fear: 'They Want To Destroy Our Suburbs'
Enlarge this image toggle caption Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images
President Trump has a message for suburban voters. And it's not a subtle one.
"They want to destroy our suburbs," Trump recently warned in a call with supporters.
"People have worked all their lives to get into a community, and now they're going to watch it go to hell," he said from the South Lawn of the White House.
Trump has been issuing increasingly dire and outlandish warnings about what Democrats will do to the suburbs. He warns suburbanites will face rising crime and falling home values if they elect Joe Biden.
The message: Be afraid, be very afraid.
The newest ad from Trump's campaign is a very dramatic dramatization of an older white woman calling 911 when she sees an intruder. But no one is there to answer her call for help. As she is attacked, the words "You won't be safe in Joe Biden's America" flash on the screen.
Trump campaign YouTube
This is all based on the false claim that Biden wants to defund the police. Biden has specifically said he doesn't want to defund the police. His campaign says these are "smears" that aren't working.
From July 1 to July 20, Trump's campaign spent more than $18 million on television ads hitting this theme, according to the tracking firm Ad Analytics. It's a similar argument to one Trump made ahead of the 2018 midterms, that caravans of migrants would cross the border bringing gangs and crime. Democrats won control of the House in a wave election, led by a suburban backlash to Trump.
"People are not afraid of what he's trying to make them afraid of," said Christine Matthews, a Republican pollster who has been critical of Trump.
In 2016, voters in the suburbs made up 50% of the electorate. Trump won those voters narrowly that year. Now polls show him trailing Biden badly in the suburbs.
Trump hadn't explicitly addressed suburban voters until about a month ago, when, in a speech to young supporters gathered at a Phoenix megachurch, Trump, referring to racial justice protests in Seattle, said it was bedlam.
"That's exactly what will come to every city near you, every suburb and community in America, if the radical-left Democrats are put in charge," Trump claimed.
From there, the appeals to suburban voters and his ideas about what issues matter to them have only gotten more direct. Trump has pushed for schools to reopen, threatening to pull funding if they don't, without explaining how it can be done safely while coronavirus cases spike. And he has targeted an Obama-era fair housing regulation, promising to sign an executive order halting it.
The 2015 regulation deals with racial segregation of housing and requires local municipalities to address historic patterns of it. But Trump warned last week that it would "destroy" the suburbs.
"Your home will go down in value and crime rates will rapidly rise," he said. "People have worked all their lives to get into a community, and now they're going to watch it go to hell. Not going to happen, not while I'm here."
That kind of racial view, pitting whites in the suburbs against Blacks and Latinos who might move in, is an appeal that seems to stem from an anachronistic view of the suburbs.
"He thinks it's basically the planned development of Levittown in the 1960s as opposed to today's suburbs, which are multiracial, diverse and highly educated," Matthews said.
Many suburban voters do think liberal activists have overstepped, said Ryan Costello, a former Republican congressman from the Pennsylvania suburbs. But, he added, they don't ascribe that to Biden, and they don't think he is going to defund their local police departments.
Costello said that right now, people in the suburbs are worried about schools opening safely, with the emphasis on safely. They're worried about the coronavirus and the economy.
"This is really a referendum on how President Trump is handling the pandemic," Costello said. "That's the kind of stuff that suburban voters that don't have a deep partisan allegiance are going to look at. And that's where they're going to render their value judgments."
And so far, Americans largely disapprove of the job Trump is doing handling the coronavirus. On average, 58% now say they disapprove of it.
Costello announced his retirement from the House of Representatives in 2018 rather than face near-certain defeat in a wave led by suburban backlash to Trump. He questions the logic of the president's current political strategy.
"If you're going to attack an opponent, there has to be something that is relatable in that attack on an opponent," Costello said. "I live in the suburbs, and I don't know how he would eliminate the suburbs. It doesn't make much sense to me."
The Trump campaign is downplaying this erosion of a key group that helped with his win in 2016.
"President Trump brought new voters into the Republican Party in 2016 and has realigned the political electorate, creating a broad coalition of support across all demographics that will carry him to victory in November," Trump campaign deputy national press secretary Samantha Zager said in an email when asked about Biden's apparent lead in the suburbs.
In 2016, Trump brought in a surge of rural white voters, who don't live in the suburbs but may respond to his messages about urban crime and the dangers of the left.
"What does suburban really mean?" Ernest McGowen, an associate professor of political science at the University of Richmond, asked rhetorically. "What does it mean as a thing? Is it a geography, or is it an identity?
McGowen, who has studied African Americans in the suburbs and lives in the suburbs himself, says that suburban identity is about accomplishment, but not excess. In the suburbs, you know your kids will go to good schools with extracurricular activities. You'll need a lawnmower.
And McGowen points out, that doesn't mean you are all that close to the city anymore. The suburbs have expanded into what used to be rural areas.
"What we're calling a suburb now is going to be part of the metro in a few years," McGowen said. "And what we're calling exurbs is going to actually be the suburbs as we would know them."
The suburbs are again shaping up to be where 2020 could be won or lost.


npr--2020-07-22--Combining Indictment With Insight, A Historian Offers Context For The Age Of Trump

Combining Indictment With Insight , A Historian Offers Context For The Age Of Trump This week , two more books appeared on the ever-widening shelf of literature lambasting President Trump and his presidency .
One sold nearly 1 million copies on its first day , based on the name of the author and weeks of publicity .
But the other is the better book to buy for insight into what Trump 's rise and rule really mean — here and abroad — for democracy in our time .
The first , of course , was Too Much and Never Enough @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 's Most Dangerous Man .
In its rueful pages , Mary Trump , the president 's niece , wields both her training as a psychologist and her insider knowledge of Uncle Donald 's dealings with other family members .
The second , by historian and journalist Anne Applebaum , is Twilight of Democracy : The Seductive Lure of Authoritarianism — and it too depicts Trump as a threat on a global scale .
Unlike the several exposes by Washington Post reporters and other journalists , former FBI directors and former Trump enablers , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and spends relatively few of them on Trump himself .
Yet it deserves a place of both prominence and permanence in the anti-Trump canon .
To be sure , Applebaum sees the U.S. president as akin to an array of autocrats now in power around the world , from Russia 's Vladimir Putin to Hungary 's Viktor Orban to Rodrigo Duterte in the Philippines .
She does not cast Trump as the cause of the world 's current passion for autocracy , although he is arguably its gaudiest product .
Applebaum brings to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , winner of the Pulitzer Prize for Gulag : A History , one of three volumes on the tyranny of the Soviet Union .
Her greater subject is the fragile state of classic liberal democracy .
She fears that the rule of law , the rights of the individual and the combination of free elections with the regulating institutions of a republic may not survive the onslaught of the 21st century .
Still heir to ancient fears and hatreds , even the most advanced societies are straining under repeated blows : protracted wars @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and now a global pandemic .
These challenges are complicated by the power and pace of technological change , especially the bewildering landscape of social media and other Internet-based communications that can `` undermine consensus , divide people further and increase polarization until only violence can determine who rules . ''
It all lends itself to exploitation by individuals and political parties offering solutions in the form of `` strong man '' authority , often with an emphasis on returning to traditional social arrangements and cultural presumptions .
Given all this weighty material @ @ @ @ @ @ @ make her treatment of it edifying .
Yet it is as smoothly readable and impressively reasoned as her columns from 17 years at The Washington Post and her more recent writing in The Atlantic .
One reason may be the personal focus of this work , the sense that she is lamenting the loss of friends and views she felt sure of when the century began .
A 2018 essay from The Atlantic titled `` A Warning From Europe '' reappears at the beginning of this volume .
In it , Applebaum revisits @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a Polish journalist and political figure ) threw for friends in Poland on New Year 's Eve 1999 .
After depicting the guests as survivors of the Iron Curtain era and creators of the new Poland , she recounts how their trajectories have since diverged .
Some , whom she describes as having been among her best friends , are people with whom she no longer speaks .
For reasons of ambition or `` to make a difference , '' several have cast their lot with Poland 's move to a nationalist , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ contact one , she receives a text that asks : `` What would we talk about ? ''
Applebaum recounts similar estrangements from some of the American conservatives she regarded as allies in an earlier time , before they `` split in half '' — largely over the rise of politicians such as Sarah Palin , the Tea Party and Trump .
`` What has caused this transformation ? ''
Applebaum asks herself and her readers .
`` Were some of our friends always closet authoritarians ?
Or have the people with whom @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the new millennium somehow changed over the subsequent two decades ? ''
There is no simple response , but to the biggest question she replies : `` Given the right conditions , any society can turn against democracy .
Indeed , if history is anything to go by , all societies eventually will . ''
Indeed , changing conditions have dimmed what had seemed the dawning of a new international epoch in the late 20th century .
In those years , the Soviet Union was collapsing , apartheid was abolished , military @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and even China seemed to be moving toward free markets and perhaps even a kind of democracy .
It was the heady time when political scientist Francis Fukuyama dared to title an essay `` The End of History ? ''
— arguing that the centuries of argument over economics and governing had led to broad consensus .
Notably , Applebaum titles her final chapter here `` The Unending of History . ''
Much of Twilight is focused on Poland , where the Washington-born Applebaum is now a citizen .
But she sees a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as in England ( where she studied at the London School of Economics and Oxford and later worked for The Economist and The Spectator ) and in Spain , where she went on journalistic assignment .
Both countries have seen periods of political peace and Western European orientation give way to surging sentiments of nationalism and populism ( a term she uses sparingly ) — often linked to resentment of immigrants .
One old friend from her younger days is Boris Johnson , who pops up at one point riding a bicycle on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ mayor .
A few years later , of course , Johnson has moved to the national stage and been caught up in the vortex of Brexit as the prime minister .
In Spain , Applebaum focuses on a relatively new party known as Vox , a name that nods to the voice of `` the people . ''
A minor player at first , Vox has swiftly swollen in importance .
Its appeals have reached older voters nostalgic for the traditional social and political arrangements , even as they reach a new generation @ @ @ @ @ @ @ prominence .
When she turns back to look at the U.S. , Applebaum is fascinated with the similarities between the violent revolutionaries of the Weather Underground in the 1960s and some of the right-wing activists and armed militia of our day .
She notes that the former group titled their manifesto `` Prairie Fire '' at the time , and the metaphor of a fire sweeping across the prairie reappeared in a speech Steve Bannon of Breitbart.com gave in 2010 , before joining forces with Trump .
`` By 2016 , some of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ — their hatred of ordinary , bourgeois politics and their longing for revolutionary change — met and mingled with the Christian right 's despair about the future of American democracy , '' she writes .
`` Together they produced the restorative nostalgic campaign rhetoric of Donald Trump . ''
Applebaum also joins a host of other authors in her amazement at Trump 's penchant for misrepresenting facts and then insisting on the validity of his misrepresentations .
She hearkens back to the controversy that arose in the first hours of his presidency with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ speech .
All available evidence showed that crowd to be far smaller than the one on President Barack Obama 's first Inauguration Day in 2009 .
But Trump and his minions insisted on his version of events , giving an early indication of how he would defy the media , Congress and other forms of oversight from then on .
The point here is to encourage his followers `` to engage , at least part of the time , with an alternative reality . ''
By so doing , she says , one @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the end of Twilight Applebaum tells of a friend in Poland who caught himself shouting ever louder in an argument .
The friend reported having the sudden realization that he was doing so not to convince others but to convince himself that he still believed what he was saying .
Perhaps , she says , those shouting their approval for autocrats around the world will reach that same conclusion .
In the meantime , Applebaum hopes the pandemic `` will inspire a new sense of global solidarity '' but fears it might have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of disease will create fear of freedom '' and empower the autocrats .
`` Maddeningly , '' she concludes , `` we must accept that both futures are possible .
No political victory is ever permanent .
... '' And in that final statement we can find both cause for concern and a reason to hope .

Combining Indictment With Insight, A Historian Offers Context For The Age Of Trump
Enlarge this image toggle caption Doubleday Doubleday
This week, two more books appeared on the ever-widening shelf of literature lambasting President Trump and his presidency. One sold nearly 1 million copies on its first day, based on the name of the author and weeks of publicity. But the other is the better book to buy for insight into what Trump's rise and rule really mean — here and abroad — for democracy in our time.
The first, of course, was Too Much and Never Enough: How My Family Created the World's Most Dangerous Man. In its rueful pages, Mary Trump, the president's niece, wields both her training as a psychologist and her insider knowledge of Uncle Donald's dealings with other family members.
The second, by historian and journalist Anne Applebaum, is Twilight of Democracy: The Seductive Lure of Authoritarianism — and it too depicts Trump as a threat on a global scale.
Unlike the several exposes by Washington Post reporters and other journalists, former FBI directors and former Trump enablers, this compact work runs under 200 pages and spends relatively few of them on Trump himself. Yet it deserves a place of both prominence and permanence in the anti-Trump canon.
To be sure, Applebaum sees the U.S. president as akin to an array of autocrats now in power around the world, from Russia's Vladimir Putin to Hungary's Viktor Orban to Rodrigo Duterte in the Philippines. She does not cast Trump as the cause of the world's current passion for autocracy, although he is arguably its gaudiest product.
Applebaum brings to these judgments the gravitas of a historian, winner of the Pulitzer Prize for Gulag: A History, one of three volumes on the tyranny of the Soviet Union.
Her greater subject is the fragile state of classic liberal democracy. She fears that the rule of law, the rights of the individual and the combination of free elections with the regulating institutions of a republic may not survive the onslaught of the 21st century.
Still heir to ancient fears and hatreds, even the most advanced societies are straining under repeated blows: protracted wars, economic disruptions, migrating populations, and now a global pandemic.
These challenges are complicated by the power and pace of technological change, especially the bewildering landscape of social media and other Internet-based communications that can "undermine consensus, divide people further and increase polarization until only violence can determine who rules."
It all lends itself to exploitation by individuals and political parties offering solutions in the form of "strong man" authority, often with an emphasis on returning to traditional social arrangements and cultural presumptions.
Given all this weighty material, it is remarkable that Applebaum can make her treatment of it edifying. Yet it is as smoothly readable and impressively reasoned as her columns from 17 years at The Washington Post and her more recent writing in The Atlantic.
One reason may be the personal focus of this work, the sense that she is lamenting the loss of friends and views she felt sure of when the century began. A 2018 essay from The Atlantic titled "A Warning From Europe" reappears at the beginning of this volume. In it, Applebaum revisits a party she and her husband (a Polish journalist and political figure) threw for friends in Poland on New Year's Eve 1999.
After depicting the guests as survivors of the Iron Curtain era and creators of the new Poland, she recounts how their trajectories have since diverged.
Some, whom she describes as having been among her best friends, are people with whom she no longer speaks. For reasons of ambition or "to make a difference," several have cast their lot with Poland's move to a nationalist, autocratic government. When she tries to contact one, she receives a text that asks: "What would we talk about?"
Applebaum recounts similar estrangements from some of the American conservatives she regarded as allies in an earlier time, before they "split in half" — largely over the rise of politicians such as Sarah Palin, the Tea Party and Trump.
"What has caused this transformation?" Applebaum asks herself and her readers. "Were some of our friends always closet authoritarians? Or have the people with whom we clinked glasses in the first minutes of the new millennium somehow changed over the subsequent two decades?"
There is no simple response, but to the biggest question she replies: "Given the right conditions, any society can turn against democracy. Indeed, if history is anything to go by, all societies eventually will."
Indeed, changing conditions have dimmed what had seemed the dawning of a new international epoch in the late 20th century. In those years, the Soviet Union was collapsing, apartheid was abolished, military juntas were being displaced in South America and even China seemed to be moving toward free markets and perhaps even a kind of democracy.
It was the heady time when political scientist Francis Fukuyama dared to title an essay "The End of History?" — arguing that the centuries of argument over economics and governing had led to broad consensus.
Notably, Applebaum titles her final chapter here "The Unending of History."
Much of Twilight is focused on Poland, where the Washington-born Applebaum is now a citizen. But she sees a similar dynamic in other polities, such as in England (where she studied at the London School of Economics and Oxford and later worked for The Economist and The Spectator) and in Spain, where she went on journalistic assignment.
Both countries have seen periods of political peace and Western European orientation give way to surging sentiments of nationalism and populism (a term she uses sparingly) — often linked to resentment of immigrants.
One old friend from her younger days is Boris Johnson, who pops up at one point riding a bicycle on a London street shortly after being elected mayor. A few years later, of course, Johnson has moved to the national stage and been caught up in the vortex of Brexit as the prime minister.
In Spain, Applebaum focuses on a relatively new party known as Vox, a name that nods to the voice of "the people." A minor player at first, Vox has swiftly swollen in importance. Its appeals have reached older voters nostalgic for the traditional social and political arrangements, even as they reach a new generation longing for the nation to return to prominence.
When she turns back to look at the U.S., Applebaum is fascinated with the similarities between the violent revolutionaries of the Weather Underground in the 1960s and some of the right-wing activists and armed militia of our day. She notes that the former group titled their manifesto "Prairie Fire" at the time, and the metaphor of a fire sweeping across the prairie reappeared in a speech Steve Bannon of Breitbart.com gave in 2010, before joining forces with Trump.
"By 2016, some of the arguments of the old Marxist left — their hatred of ordinary, bourgeois politics and their longing for revolutionary change — met and mingled with the Christian right's despair about the future of American democracy," she writes. "Together they produced the restorative nostalgic campaign rhetoric of Donald Trump."
Applebaum also joins a host of other authors in her amazement at Trump's penchant for misrepresenting facts and then insisting on the validity of his misrepresentations. She hearkens back to the controversy that arose in the first hours of his presidency with regard to the crowd for his inauguration speech. All available evidence showed that crowd to be far smaller than the one on President Barack Obama's first Inauguration Day in 2009.
But Trump and his minions insisted on his version of events, giving an early indication of how he would defy the media, Congress and other forms of oversight from then on. The point here is to encourage his followers "to engage, at least part of the time, with an alternative reality." By so doing, she says, one becomes complicit in the conspiracy.
Near the end of Twilight Applebaum tells of a friend in Poland who caught himself shouting ever louder in an argument. The friend reported having the sudden realization that he was doing so not to convince others but to convince himself that he still believed what he was saying. Perhaps, she says, those shouting their approval for autocrats around the world will reach that same conclusion.
In the meantime, Applebaum hopes the pandemic "will inspire a new sense of global solidarity" but fears it might have the opposite effect, that "fear of disease will create fear of freedom" and empower the autocrats.
"Maddeningly," she concludes, "we must accept that both futures are possible. No political victory is ever permanent. ..."
And in that final statement we can find both cause for concern and a reason to hope.