npr--2020-03-03--Dow Plunges Nearly 800 Points, Despite Fed Rescue Attempt

An emergency interest-rate cut by the Federal Reserve failed to mollify investors worried about the coronavirus epidemic , and stocks once again plummeted .
The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended down 786 points , a drop of 2.94 % after an especially volatile trading day .
All the major indexes have lost more than 10 % of their value since their all-time highs , moving back into what the market calls a correction .
The declines came despite a move by the Federal Reserve to cut a key interest rate by a half percentage point in an emergency attempt to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ when the coronavirus threatens to slow growth .
The cut was the largest by the central bank since the 2008 financial crisis and it came as the Fed faced growing pressure to address the impact of the spreading epidemic on the global economy .
`` The fundamentals of the U.S. economy remain strong .
However , the coronavirus poses evolving risks to economic activity , '' the central bank said in a statement Tuesday morning .
Do n't see the graphic above ?
Click here .
The Fed 's move should lower the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cards , auto loans and mortgages .
The Fed cut its target for the federal funds rate to a range of 1 % to 1.25 % .
But by cutting rates to such a low level , the Fed has left itself less room to move aggressively if the economic fallout from the virus should worsen .
`` We do recognize that a rate cut will not reduce the rate of infection , '' Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said .
`` It wo n't fix a broken supply chain .
We get that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ all the answers .
But we do believe that our action will provide a meaningful boost to the economy . ''
But some economists said the move would do little to address the real problem facing the economy right now : Fear of the virus is causing many people to stay home , shutting down factory production , hurting retail sales and reducing travel .
Bernard Baumohl , chief global economist at the Economic Outlook Group , compared the Fed 's move to `` putting a Band-Aid on an arm to cure a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to see how precisely this easing in monetary policy will effectively counter fears of getting ill from this pathogen , '' he wrote .
An extended outbreak will stifle demand throughout the economy as people avoid activities that could expose them to the virus , according to Tendayi Kapfidze , chief economist at LendingTree .
`` What 's far less clear is whether a rate cut actually does anything to alleviate that demand shock , '' he said .
Powell acknowledged that a rate cut is only one part of the response required @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will rest with doctors , nurses and public health officials .
Last week , stock prices had their worst week since the 2008 financial crisis , with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling by 12.5 % , although it recouped part of its losses on Monday .
The Fed left open the possibility of further rate cuts down the line , saying it was monitoring developments and would act as needed to shore up growth .
Powell said that while fallout from the epidemic has yet to show up in most economic statistics @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to come .
The extent of the shock to the economy will depend on the duration of the virus and the extent to which businesses and consumers curtail spending in response to the outbreak .
Goldman Sachs is predicting the U.S. economy will barely skirt a recession , but it has lowered its growth forecast to 0.9 % in the first quarter and zero in the second quarter .

Dow Plunges Nearly 800 Points, Despite Fed Rescue Attempt
Enlarge this image toggle caption Spencer Platt/Getty Images Spencer Platt/Getty Images
Updated at 4:22 p.m. ET
An emergency interest-rate cut by the Federal Reserve failed to mollify investors worried about the coronavirus epidemic, and stocks once again plummeted.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended down 786 points, a drop of 2.94% after an especially volatile trading day.
All the major indexes have lost more than 10% of their value since their all-time highs, moving back into what the market calls a correction.
Economy Federal Reserve Cuts Key Interest Rate To Counter Coronavirus Risk Federal Reserve Cuts Key Interest Rate To Counter Coronavirus Risk Listen · 3:57 3:57
The declines came despite a move by the Federal Reserve to cut a key interest rate by a half percentage point in an emergency attempt to shore up the economy at a time when the coronavirus threatens to slow growth.
The cut was the largest by the central bank since the 2008 financial crisis and it came as the Fed faced growing pressure to address the impact of the spreading epidemic on the global economy.
"The fundamentals of the U.S. economy remain strong. However, the coronavirus poses evolving risks to economic activity," the central bank said in a statement Tuesday morning.
Loading...
Don't see the graphic above? Click here.
The Fed's move should lower the cost of borrowing, including for credit cards, auto loans and mortgages. The Fed cut its target for the federal funds rate to a range of 1% to 1.25%. But by cutting rates to such a low level, the Fed has left itself less room to move aggressively if the economic fallout from the virus should worsen.
"We do recognize that a rate cut will not reduce the rate of infection," Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said. "It won't fix a broken supply chain. We get that. We don't think we have all the answers. But we do believe that our action will provide a meaningful boost to the economy."
But some economists said the move would do little to address the real problem facing the economy right now: Fear of the virus is causing many people to stay home, shutting down factory production, hurting retail sales and reducing travel.
Bernard Baumohl, chief global economist at the Economic Outlook Group, compared the Fed's move to "putting a Band-Aid on an arm to cure a headache."
"One is hard-pressed to see how precisely this easing in monetary policy will effectively counter fears of getting ill from this pathogen," he wrote.
An extended outbreak will stifle demand throughout the economy as people avoid activities that could expose them to the virus, according to Tendayi Kapfidze, chief economist at LendingTree.
"What's far less clear is whether a rate cut actually does anything to alleviate that demand shock," he said.
Powell acknowledged that a rate cut is only one part of the response required by the outbreak and that primary responsibility will rest with doctors, nurses and public health officials.
Last week, stock prices had their worst week since the 2008 financial crisis, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling by 12.5%, although it recouped part of its losses on Monday.
The Fed left open the possibility of further rate cuts down the line, saying it was monitoring developments and would act as needed to shore up growth.
Powell said that while fallout from the epidemic has yet to show up in most economic statistics, anecdotal reports hint at what's to come.
The extent of the shock to the economy will depend on the duration of the virus and the extent to which businesses and consumers curtail spending in response to the outbreak.
Goldman Sachs is predicting the U.S. economy will barely skirt a recession, but it has lowered its growth forecast to 0.9% in the first quarter and zero in the second quarter.


npr--2020-03-03--Tornadoes In Tennessee Kill At Least 25, Cause Widespread Damage In Nashville

Tornadoes In Tennessee Kill At Least 25 , Cause Widespread Damage In Nashville Tornadoes gashed through central Tennessee early Tuesday , with the worst damage concentrated in and around Nashville .
The Tennessee Emergency Management Agency says at least 25 people were killed across four counties , and there are fears the death toll could climb as first responders continue to search for victims .
A state of emergency was in effect across Tennessee .
Officials say that dozens of buildings across the area have collapsed and that some 48,000 Nashville Electric customers are without power .
Thousands more , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ another 8,000 in Cumberland , Putnam and Jackson counties , are also without power .
`` It is a tragic day in our state .
A sad day , '' Gov .
Bill Lee said at a news conference Tuesday afternoon .
`` We have 25 fatalities across our state from west Tennessee to east Tennessee . ''
This all comes as residents take part in Super Tuesday presidential primary voting .
`` Over two-thirds of the length of Tennessee seems to have been damaged by storms last night , '' Patrick Sheehan @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Agency , said Tuesday in an interview with NPR and WBUR 's Here and Now .
He said National Guardsmen , firefighters , law enforcement and other first responders were assessing the damage , structure by structure , in the affected areas .
President Trump tweeted Tuesday : `` The Federal Government is with you all of the way during this difficult time . ''
Speaking at the National Association of Counties Legislative Conference in Washington , D.C. , he said , `` Our hearts are full of sorrow for the lives that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ he would be traveling to the area on Friday .
Gov .
Lee called the deaths in his state `` heartbreaking . ''
`` We have had loss of life all across the state , '' he said at a Tuesday morning news conference .
The highest number of fatalities occurred in Putnam County , with 17 reported , according to officials .
Putnam County Mayor Randy Porter said the city set up a special morgue for tornado victims , while 65 people were being treated for injuries .
Porter also told reporters @ @ @ @ @ @ @ quarter mile wide and two miles in length that damaged at least 100 structures or more , including many that are `` totally gone . ''
WPLN , the NPR member station in Nashville , reports at least six people are receiving care at the main Vanderbilt University Medical Center campus , while 23 others are at Vanderbilt Wilson County Hospital in Lebanon , Tenn. All are in stable condition , WPLN reports .
WPLN reporter Blake Farmer described debris strewn across one section of East Nashville .
`` Just debris everywhere , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have been blown out a good part of an old historic church that 's laying in the street as rubble , a few buildings that have basically collapsed , '' Farmer told NPR 's Morning Edition .
`` I 'm looking down an alley , there are power lines just all netted over the alley , and pieces of metal roofing and all sort of debris hanging everywhere . ''
Tornado damage is responsible for the collapse of at least 40 structures in the city , according to the Nashville Fire Department .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ East , a popular concert venue that hosted a benefit concert for presidential hopeful Bernie Sanders on Monday night , before the tornado hit , according The Tennessean newspaper .
The tornado ripped through the building at around 1:15 a.m. Tuesday , co-owner Mike Grimes told the paper , saying five employees found shelter `` with seconds to spare before the roof blew off . ''
Public schools throughout Nashville were closed Tuesday , according to the official Twitter account for Metro Nashville Public Schools .
There was also `` significant damage '' @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Airport .
Doug Kreulen , the president of the Nashville Airport Authority , tweeted images of metal roofing ripped off buildings and what appeared to be planes torn apart and buried under debris .
Nashville International Airport , the city 's main air hub , is fully operational , though officials have warned travelers that road conditions may make getting to and from the airport difficult .
A `` line of severe storms '' caused significant damage to buildings , roads and bridges across multiple counties , according to TEMA .
`` The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ coordinated response effort to last night 's devastating storms , '' Lee tweeted Tuesday morning .
`` In the hours ahead , we will continue deploying search and rescue teams , opening shelters across the state , and sending emergency personnel to our communities hit hardest . ''
Officials are cautioning residents to keep roads free for emergency personnel and to stay away from damaged buildings or hazardous locations .
Emergency officials are also urging residents to refrain from calling 911 unless it is a life-threatening emergency .
`` Nashville is hurting and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ he tweeted .
`` My heart goes out to those who have lost loved ones .
Be sure to lend a helping hand to a neighbor in need , and let 's come together as a community once more .
Together , we will get through this and come out stronger . ''
TEMA officials say emergency shelters have been opened in churches in Cookeville , Mount Juliet and Lebanon , and at a sportsplex in Nashville .
Davidson County , which includes Nashville , pushed back the opening of its polling centers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ citing storm damage .
The polls are still scheduled to close at 7 p.m. central time , as originally planned .
Some polling centers in Davidson , Putnam and Wilson counties were affected by the tornadoes , according to the Tennessee Secretary of State , and the city of Nashville lists several polling place changes .

Tornadoes In Tennessee Kill At Least 24, Cause Widespread Damage In Nashville
Enlarge this image toggle caption Mark Humphrey/AP Mark Humphrey/AP
Updated 9:20 p.m. ET
Tornadoes gashed through central Tennessee early Tuesday, with the worst damage concentrated in and around Nashville. The Tennessee Emergency Management Agency says at least 24 people were killed across four counties, and there are fears the death toll could climb as first responders continue to search for victims.
A state of emergency was in effect across Tennessee. Officials say that dozens of buildings across the area have collapsed and that some 48,000 Nashville Electric customers are without power. Thousands more, including 17,000 residents in Wilson County and another 8,000 in Cumberland, Putnam and Jackson counties, are also without power.
"It is a tragic day in our state. A sad day," Gov. Bill Lee said at a news conference Tuesday afternoon. Lee initially reported 25 deaths, but officials later reduced the toll to 24, saying one of the earlier reported deaths was not storm-related.
This all comes as residents take part in Super Tuesday presidential primary voting.
"Over two-thirds of the length of Tennessee seems to have been damaged by storms last night," Patrick Sheehan, director of the Tennessee Emergency Management Agency, said Tuesday in an interview with NPR and WBUR's Here and Now.
He said National Guardsmen, firefighters, law enforcement and other first responders were assessing the damage, structure by structure, in the affected areas.
President Trump tweeted Tuesday: "The Federal Government is with you all of the way during this difficult time." Speaking at the National Association of Counties Legislative Conference in Washington, D.C., he said, "Our hearts are full of sorrow for the lives that were lost."
The president said he would be traveling to the area on Friday.
Gov. Lee called the deaths in his state "heartbreaking."
"We have had loss of life all across the state," he said at a Tuesday morning news conference.
The highest number of fatalities occurred in Putnam County, with 18 reported, according to officials. Putnam County Mayor Randy Porter said the city set up a special morgue for tornado victims, while 65 people were being treated for injuries.
Porter also told reporters a storm carved a path about a quarter mile wide and two miles in length that damaged at least 100 structures or more, including many that are "totally gone."
Enlarge this image toggle caption Mark Humphrey/AP Mark Humphrey/AP
WPLN, the NPR member station in Nashville, reports at least six people are receiving care at the main Vanderbilt University Medical Center campus, while 23 others are at Vanderbilt Wilson County Hospital in Lebanon, Tenn. All are in stable condition, WPLN reports.
WPLN reporter Blake Farmer described debris strewn across one section of East Nashville.
"Just debris everywhere, roofs that are gone, windows that have been blown out a good part of an old historic church that's laying in the street as rubble, a few buildings that have basically collapsed," Farmer told NPR's Morning Edition. "I'm looking down an alley, there are power lines just all netted over the alley, and pieces of metal roofing and all sort of debris hanging everywhere."
Enlarge this image toggle caption Mark Humphrey/AP Mark Humphrey/AP
Tornado damage is responsible for the collapse of at least 40 structures in the city, according to the Nashville Fire Department.
One of those structures is the Basement East, a popular concert venue that hosted a benefit concert for presidential hopeful Bernie Sanders on Monday night, before the tornado hit, according The Tennessean newspaper. The tornado ripped through the building at around 1:15 a.m. Tuesday, co-owner Mike Grimes told the paper, saying five employees found shelter "with seconds to spare before the roof blew off."
Enlarge this image toggle caption Mark Humphrey/AP Mark Humphrey/AP
Public schools throughout Nashville were closed Tuesday, according to the official Twitter account for Metro Nashville Public Schools.
There was also "significant damage" to the city's John C. Tune Airport. Doug Kreulen, the president of the Nashville Airport Authority, tweeted images of metal roofing ripped off buildings and what appeared to be planes torn apart and buried under debris.
Nashville International Airport, the city's main air hub, is fully operational, though officials have warned travelers that road conditions may make getting to and from the airport difficult.
A "line of severe storms" caused significant damage to buildings, roads and bridges across multiple counties, according to TEMA.
"The State of Tennessee has activated a strong coordinated response effort to last night's devastating storms," Lee tweeted Tuesday morning. "In the hours ahead, we will continue deploying search and rescue teams, opening shelters across the state, and sending emergency personnel to our communities hit hardest."
Officials are cautioning residents to keep roads free for emergency personnel and to stay away from damaged buildings or hazardous locations. Emergency officials are also urging residents to refrain from calling 911 unless it is a life-threatening emergency.
Nashville Mayor John Cooper sought to project a message of unity.
"Nashville is hurting and our community has been devastated," he tweeted. "My heart goes out to those who have lost loved ones. Be sure to lend a helping hand to a neighbor in need, and let's come together as a community once more. Together, we will get through this and come out stronger."
TEMA officials say emergency shelters have been opened in churches in Cookeville, Mount Juliet and Lebanon, and at a sportsplex in Nashville.
Davidson County, which includes Nashville, pushed back the opening of its polling centers by one hour to 8 a.m., citing storm damage. The polls are still scheduled to close at 7 p.m. central time, as originally planned.
Some polling centers in Davidson, Putnam and Wilson counties were affected by the tornadoes, according to the Tennessee Secretary of State, and the city of Nashville lists several polling place changes.


npr--2020-03-03--For The 1st Time, Architecture's Most Prestigious Prize Is Awarded To 2 Women

For The 1st Time , Architecture 's Most Prestigious Prize Is Awarded To 2 Women In a video released by the Pritzker Architecture Prize , commonly seen as the Nobel of the architecture world , the winners look directly into the camera and introduce themselves in soft Irish accents .
`` My name is Shelley McNamara . ''
`` And my name is Yvonne Farrell . ''
McNamara and Farrell co-founded their firm 42 years ago in Dublin .
`` Our name , Grafton Architects , comes from the street where we set up our first office , on Grafton @ @ @ @ @ @ @ And we were a group of five architects , and we had this idea of making a collective practice , so we called ourselves after the street .
So we are anchored in our own place and our own culture . ''
It 's a telling detail that the firm was named for its place in the city , and not after the architects themselves , says Robert McCarter , an architecture professor at Washington University in St Louis .
His book about Grafton Architects came out in 2018 .
`` Their practice @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , '' he told NPR .
`` Dublin and Ireland are very important .
And they say their practice is committed to the cultural ethics of buildings , so it 's an ethics that 's all-encompassing of the culture in which they work . ''
Farrell and McNamara met as architecture students at University College Dublin in the mid-1970s .
Not much was happening in Ireland at the time architecturally , McCarter says , and Grafton Architects did n't start making much of a splash until the early 1990s , when the Irish @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a building for Trinity College in Dublin , houses and schools , and with other young architects they helped transform Dublin 's Temple Bar Square into a lively , pedestrian-friendly commercial destination .
In fact , Grafton Architects did n't design a single building outside of Ireland until 2003 , when the firm won an international competition to design the prestigious school of economics at the Universita Luigi Bocconi in Milan .
The building was completed in 2008 .
`` It 's a series of big blocks that are made of stone , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has a glass bottom so along the street , it 's very beautiful , '' says Sarah Whiting , dean of Harvard 's Graduate School of Design .
`` You feel like you 're enveloped in the embrace of a tough building .
It feels like its own world . ''
The building was an immediate sensation in international architecture circles .
It was named World Building of the Year at the inaugural World Architecture Festival in 2008 and launched Grafton Architects as a leading designer of university buildings .
The firm took @ @ @ @ @ @ @ UTEC Lima in Peru , in France and in the United Kingdom , where they 're currently finishing a project for the London School of Economics .
`` We 're passionately interested in education , '' McNamara said during a 2015 lecture at the KTH Royal Institute of Technology in Sweden .
`` The university should be a place where knowledge is tended to like a garden .
And we 're the guardians of knowledge . ''
Farrell and McNamara have worked consistently as professors as well as designers throughout their careers — @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Both say teaching is an ongoing source of creative replenishment .
And of course , they 're also unusual in their gender .
Only three other women have won the Pritzker Architecture Prize in the past — Zaha Hadid in 2004 , Kazuyo Sejima in 2010 ( with Ryue Nishizawa ) and Carme Pigem in 2017 ( with Ramón Vilalta and Rafael Aranda ) .
Whiting describes Farrell and McNamara 's selection as `` satisfying . ''
`` They 're phenomenally good architects , '' she says , calling their style `` forthright @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on brutalist traditions .
Plus , she adds , this year 's Pritzker selection reflects the profession 's changing realities .
`` The field of architecture has a lot of women in it right now , '' Whiting says .
`` The schools have been 50 % women for , oh , 20-25 years . ''
Farrell and McNamara received raves when they curated the world 's largest architecture exhibition , the Venice Biennale , in 2018 .
`` Generosity and thoughtfulness '' was their theme .
The two often invoke the metaphor @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Jonathan Swift 's novel , Gulliver 's Travels .
It 's a place that the inhabitants know how to maneuver .
They spend their time listening to the music of the spheres but they are continually worried that the sun will go out .
It 's a potent metaphor for the moment , Farrell said in a speech last month accepting the 2020 Royal Gold Medal from the Royal Institute of British Architects .
`` There is something interesting about that , just thinking about where we are now , and how we @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that architecture inherently has , '' she said .
`` To make new worlds and to make new futures . ''

For The 1st Time, Architecture's Most Prestigious Prize Is Awarded To 2 Women
Enlarge this image toggle caption Federico Brunetti/Pritzker Architecture Prize Federico Brunetti/Pritzker Architecture Prize
In a video released by the Pritzker Architecture Prize, commonly seen as the Nobel of the architecture world, the winners look directly into the camera and introduce themselves in soft Irish accents.
Enlarge this image toggle caption Antonio Calanni/AP Antonio Calanni/AP
"My name is Shelley McNamara."
"And my name is Yvonne Farrell."
McNamara and Farrell co-founded their firm 42 years ago in Dublin.
"Our name, Grafton Architects, comes from the street where we set up our first office, on Grafton Street," McNamara explains. "And we were a group of five architects, and we had this idea of making a collective practice, so we called ourselves after the street. So we are anchored in our own place and our own culture."
It's a telling detail that the firm was named for its place in the city, and not after the architects themselves, says Robert McCarter, an architecture professor at Washington University in St Louis. His book about Grafton Architects came out in 2018.
"Their practice is grounded in the specifics of place," he told NPR. "Dublin and Ireland are very important. And they say their practice is committed to the cultural ethics of buildings, so it's an ethics that's all-encompassing of the culture in which they work."
toggle caption Ros Kavanagh/Pritzker Architecture Prize
Farrell and McNamara met as architecture students at University College Dublin in the mid-1970s. Not much was happening in Ireland at the time architecturally, McCarter says, and Grafton Architects didn't start making much of a splash until the early 1990s, when the Irish economy started taking off. They designed a building for Trinity College in Dublin, houses and schools, and with other young architects they helped transform Dublin's Temple Bar Square into a lively, pedestrian-friendly commercial destination.
In fact, Grafton Architects didn't design a single building outside of Ireland until 2003, when the firm won an international competition to design the prestigious school of economics at the Universita Luigi Bocconi in Milan. The building was completed in 2008.
toggle caption Federico Brunetti/Pritzker Architecture Prize
"It's a series of big blocks that are made of stone, they're very opaque, and it has a glass bottom so along the street, it's very beautiful," says Sarah Whiting, dean of Harvard's Graduate School of Design. "You feel like you're enveloped in the embrace of a tough building. It feels like its own world."
Enlarge this image toggle caption Dennis Gilbert/Pritzker Architecture Prize Dennis Gilbert/Pritzker Architecture Prize
The building was an immediate sensation in international architecture circles. It was named World Building of the Year at the inaugural World Architecture Festival in 2008 and launched Grafton Architects as a leading designer of university buildings. The firm took on high-profile projects at the University Campus UTEC Lima in Peru, in France and in the United Kingdom, where they're currently finishing a project for the London School of Economics.
"We're passionately interested in education," McNamara said during a 2015 lecture at the KTH Royal Institute of Technology in Sweden. "The university should be a place where knowledge is tended to like a garden. And we're the guardians of knowledge."
Farrell and McNamara have worked consistently as professors as well as designers throughout their careers — unusual for architects of their stature. Both say teaching is an ongoing source of creative replenishment. And of course, they're also unusual in their gender. Only three other women have won the Pritzker Architecture Prize in the past — Zaha Hadid in 2004, Kazuyo Sejima in 2010 (with Ryue Nishizawa) and Carme Pigem in 2017 (with Ramón Vilalta and Rafael Aranda). Whiting describes Farrell and McNamara's selection as "satisfying."
Enlarge this image toggle caption Alexandre Soria/Pritzker Architecture Prize Alexandre Soria/Pritzker Architecture Prize
"They're phenomenally good architects," she says, calling their style "forthright" and "beefy," drawing on brutalist traditions. Plus, she adds, this year's Pritzker selection reflects the profession's changing realities. "The field of architecture has a lot of women in it right now," Whiting says. "The schools have been 50% women for, oh, 20-25 years."
Farrell and McNamara received raves when they curated the world's largest architecture exhibition, the Venice Biennale, in 2018. "Generosity and thoughtfulness" was their theme. The two often invoke the metaphor of the flying island of Laputa in Jonathan Swift's novel, Gulliver's Travels. It's a place that the inhabitants know how to maneuver. They spend their time listening to the music of the spheres but they are continually worried that the sun will go out. It's a potent metaphor for the moment, Farrell said in a speech last month accepting the 2020 Royal Gold Medal from the Royal Institute of British Architects.
"There is something interesting about that, just thinking about where we are now, and how we imagine ourselves optimistically with all the potential that architecture inherently has," she said. "To make new worlds and to make new futures."


npr--2020-03-03--Letters Urge Betsy DeVos To Erase Student Loans For Borrowers With Disabilities

Letters Urge Betsy DeVos To Erase Student Loans For Borrowers With Disabilities The U.S. Department of Education must act to help thousands of student loan borrowers who have severe disabilities ; that 's the message of two letters sent Tuesday to Education Secretary Betsy DeVos .
Because of their disabilities , these borrowers qualify to have their federal student loans erased .
But one letter , signed by more than 30 advocacy groups , says the department has made the application process so burdensome that most borrowers never get the help they 're entitled to .
A second letter , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ seven states and the District of Columbia , similarly urges the department to clear away unnecessary administrative hurdles and to automatically discharge the loans of all eligible borrowers with permanent disabilities .
In a statement to NPR , Education Department Press Secretary Angela Morabito suggested the department is open to change : The letters come after an NPR investigation revealed that only 28 % of eligible borrowers with disabilities — identified by the Education Department between March 2016 and September 2019 — have either had their loans erased or are on track for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is unacceptable .
Twenty-eight percent is a shockingly low number , '' says Alex Elson , senior counsel at the National Student Legal Defense Network , one of the advocacy groups pushing DeVos to make improvements .
For more than half a century , student loan borrowers with a significant , permanent disability have been protected by federal law : If they can no longer work enough to support themselves or repay their debts , they can have their federal student loans erased .
The Education Department currently requires that eligible borrowers apply @ @ @ @ @ @ @ argue that the application process is unnecessary .
In 2015 , the U.S. government began comparing the Social Security Administration 's records of Americans who have total , permanent disabilities to the Education Department 's database of federal student borrowers .
It then made a list of everyone whose name appeared in both .
According to department data obtained by NPR , between March 2016 and September 2019 , 555,000 borrowers with significant , permanent disabilities were identified as eligible for loan discharge .
While the department attempted to notify many of them @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 200,000 successfully applied to have their loans conditionally discharged and proceeded to the burdensome income-monitoring period .
As of December 2019 , only 156,000 borrowers have either had their loans erased or are still on track for that to happen .
`` The application process is standing in the way of critical relief for hundreds of thousands of eligible borrowers , thwarting the intent of Congress that their student loan debt be discharged , '' says the letter signed by advocacy groups including the American Federation of Teachers , the National Disability Rights @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the same fix : Automatically discharge the federal student loans of every eligible borrower who has met the federal government 's disability standard for criteria known as Medical Improvement Not Expected .
In short , they argue , do n't make these vulnerable borrowers apply for a benefit that the federal government already knows they qualify for .
`` Getting to the post office can be cumbersome .
Not everyone has a printer at home .
These documents can be cumbersome , '' says New York state student advocate Winston Berkman-Breen , who @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Putting in this application has a series of really difficult and high hurdles for someone who qualifies for the program .
You know , it 's sort of this perverse idea that the people who are intended to benefit from the program are the ones who are least able to access the program . ''
In December , in response to NPR 's findings , an Education Department official told NPR the department had made incremental improvements to the application process since 2016 : `` We continue to look for ways to make @ @ @ @ @ @ @ student loan borrowers , while maintaining the integrity of the taxpayer dollars associated with the discharges . ''
Multiple legal and policy experts say if the department is genuinely interested in making these changes , it can .
`` They have the authority to do this .
The laws and programs already exist , '' says Washington state student loan advocate Stephanie Sampedro , who cosigned one of the letters .
`` [ The Education Department ] has already done it for some borrowers — for veterans who are disabled . ''
In @ @ @ @ @ @ @ announced that eligible veterans with permanent disabilities would begin to have their loans discharged automatically .
They would no longer need to respond to a letter or ask for help .
In the presidential memorandum announcing the move , Trump offered a scathing critique of the discharge process , saying it is `` overly complicated and difficult , and prevented too many of our veterans from receiving the relief for which they are eligible .
This has inflicted significant hardship and serious harm on these veterans and has frustrated the intent of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be discharged . ''
The president 's move was widely celebrated , but it has so far done nothing for the far larger group of civilians with permanent disabilities who are also legally entitled to the same loan discharge .
`` And now it 's time for [ the Department ] to grant the same relief to civilians who , through no fault of their own , became totally and permanently disabled and are now struggling to repay their debts , '' Sampedro says .
For the past two years , a bipartisan @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to automatically discharge the loans of all eligible borrowers with permanent disabilities .

Letters Urge Betsy DeVos To Erase Student Loans For Borrowers With Disabilities
Enlarge this image toggle caption Alex Brandon/AP Alex Brandon/AP
Updated at 9:44 a.m. EST.
The U.S. Department of Education must act to help thousands of student loan borrowers who have severe disabilities; that's the message of two letters sent Tuesday to Education Secretary Betsy DeVos. Because of their disabilities, these borrowers qualify to have their federal student loans erased. But one letter, signed by more than 30 advocacy groups, says the department has made the application process so burdensome that most borrowers never get the help they're entitled to.
A second letter, signed by the student loan advocates of seven states and the District of Columbia, similarly urges the department to clear away unnecessary administrative hurdles and to automatically discharge the loans of all eligible borrowers with permanent disabilities.
In a statement to NPR, Education Department Press Secretary Angela Morabito suggested the department is open to change:
"The Department's current implementing regulations require it to receive an application before completing a civilian [total and permanent disability] discharge, but we are interested in providing automatic discharge to these borrowers and believe the FUTURE Act makes this a possibility — but will require the department to undergo negotiated rulemaking."
The letters come after an NPR investigation revealed that only 28% of eligible borrowers with disabilities — identified by the Education Department between March 2016 and September 2019 — have either had their loans erased or are on track for that to happen.
"That number is unacceptable. Twenty-eight percent is a shockingly low number," says Alex Elson, senior counsel at the National Student Legal Defense Network, one of the advocacy groups pushing DeVos to make improvements.
For more than half a century, student loan borrowers with a significant, permanent disability have been protected by federal law: If they can no longer work enough to support themselves or repay their debts, they can have their federal student loans erased.
The Education Department currently requires that eligible borrowers apply for help, but Tuesday's letters argue that the application process is unnecessary. In 2015, the U.S. government began comparing the Social Security Administration's records of Americans who have total, permanent disabilities to the Education Department's database of federal student borrowers. It then made a list of everyone whose name appeared in both.
According to department data obtained by NPR, between March 2016 and September 2019, 555,000 borrowers with significant, permanent disabilities were identified as eligible for loan discharge. While the department attempted to notify many of them of their eligibility, ultimately, just 200,000 successfully applied to have their loans conditionally discharged and proceeded to the burdensome income-monitoring period. As of December 2019, only 156,000 borrowers have either had their loans erased or are still on track for that to happen.
"The application process is standing in the way of critical relief for hundreds of thousands of eligible borrowers, thwarting the intent of Congress that their student loan debt be discharged," says the letter signed by advocacy groups including the American Federation of Teachers, the National Disability Rights Network and Easterseals.
Both letters recommend the same fix: Automatically discharge the federal student loans of every eligible borrower who has met the federal government's disability standard for criteria known as Medical Improvement Not Expected. In short, they argue, don't make these vulnerable borrowers apply for a benefit that the federal government already knows they qualify for.
"Getting to the post office can be cumbersome. Not everyone has a printer at home. These documents can be cumbersome," says New York state student advocate Winston Berkman-Breen, who cosigned one of the letters. "Putting in this application has a series of really difficult and high hurdles for someone who qualifies for the program. You know, it's sort of this perverse idea that the people who are intended to benefit from the program are the ones who are least able to access the program."
In December, in response to NPR's findings, an Education Department official told NPR the department had made incremental improvements to the application process since 2016: "We continue to look for ways to make the process easier to navigate for disabled student loan borrowers, while maintaining the integrity of the taxpayer dollars associated with the discharges."
Multiple legal and policy experts say if the department is genuinely interested in making these changes, it can.
"They have the authority to do this. The laws and programs already exist," says Washington state student loan advocate Stephanie Sampedro, who cosigned one of the letters. "[The Education Department] has already done it for some borrowers — for veterans who are disabled."
In August 2019, President Trump and DeVos announced that eligible veterans with permanent disabilities would begin to have their loans discharged automatically. They would no longer need to respond to a letter or ask for help.
In the presidential memorandum announcing the move, Trump offered a scathing critique of the discharge process, saying it is "overly complicated and difficult, and prevented too many of our veterans from receiving the relief for which they are eligible. This has inflicted significant hardship and serious harm on these veterans and has frustrated the intent of the Congress that their Federal student loan debt be discharged."
The president's move was widely celebrated, but it has so far done nothing for the far larger group of civilians with permanent disabilities who are also legally entitled to the same loan discharge.
"And now it's time for [the Department] to grant the same relief to civilians who, through no fault of their own, became totally and permanently disabled and are now struggling to repay their debts," Sampedro says.
For the past two years, a bipartisan coalition of lawmakers has similarly urged DeVos to automatically discharge the loans of all eligible borrowers with permanent disabilities.


npr--2020-03-03--Are High Mask Prices The Problem Or The Solution?

Are High Mask Prices The Problem Or The Solution ?
Editor 's note : This is an excerpt of Planet Money 's newsletter .
You can sign up here .
Last month , Daniel Tamasi , an IT manager in St. Louis , Missouri , decided he wanted to take some extra precautions against coronavirus .
He has a two-year old , and he and his wife are expecting , so he started searching online for masks to protect his family .
`` I thought it was going to be my usual two-to-three minute Amazon search and , you know @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , '' he says .
He quickly found out that Amazon did n't offer its standard , two-day shipping for Prime members like him .
In fact , the earliest he could find a delivery was about a month out .
`` So I went to the online stores of basically every major pharmacy — CVS , Walgreens , Target , and those sort of places — and they were all out of stock . ''
Next he tried brick-and-mortar retailers around St. Louis .
Still no luck .
Finally , Tamasi turned @ @ @ @ @ @ @ there , and they were crazy expensive .
The cheapest masks he could find on eBay , he says , were about four times their typical sticker price .
Around the world , people like Tamasi are scrambling for masks , and prices are rising .
According to online price tracker Keepa , a 30-pack of 3M 's popular N95 mask was selling on Amazon for $ 199.95 last Tuesday .
Normally , it 's about 15 bucks .
According to Nielsen , a retail tracker , sales of medical masks have seen @ @ @ @ @ @ @ over the last month compared to the same time last year .
And manufacturers are struggling to supply the demand .
For economists like George Mason 's Tyler Cowen , this is all the sign of a properly functioning market .
Higher prices are the market 's way of screaming : We need more masks !
`` The normal economic view is that prices should be left free to make supply and demand equal , '' Cowen says .
Higher mask prices , he says , have at least two benefits .
One @ @ @ @ @ @ @ most are more likely to get them .
At this moment , the CDC only recommends masks for medical professionals , and hospitals are running out .
Those in the medical field , Cowen says , `` are the ones willing to pay the most , '' and higher prices might cut down on frivolous buying by the general public .
Higher prices are also a signal to manufacturers to make more masks .
There are obviously downsides to higher prices .
Merchants are profiteering on fear , and higher prices mean only @ @ @ @ @ @ @ `` There is a genuine , legitimate fairness concern , '' Cowen says .
A majority of states around the country have laws against price gouging .
California 's , for example , forbids raising prices by more than ten percent if the governor has declared an emergency .
We found no reports yet of these laws being applied to masks .
According to most economists , setting a ceiling on mask prices would only add to the problem : `` If you keep the price artificially low , there ends up being @ @ @ @ @ @ @ market , '' says Cowen .
It 's not just politicians who are concerned about the optics of price gouging .
Amazon , for example , has a policy urging `` fair pricing . ''
In recent weeks , it 's told some sellers of masks on its marketplace that they could be suspended if they jack up their prices too much .
`` There is no place for price gouging on Amazon , '' says a company spokesperson .
`` We are disappointed that bad actors are attempting to artificially raise prices @ @ @ @ @ @ @ health crisis and , in line with our long-standing policy , have recently blocked or removed tens of thousands of offers . ''
Amazon 's policy might seem strange , considering it 's a profit-hungry corporation that uses fancy algorithms to increase prices all the time .
But a famous study by Daniel Kahneman , Jack Knetsch , and Richard Thaler suggests profiteering during a calamity could hurt a company 's bottom line if it results in long-lasting damage to their reputation .
`` Uber learned this the hard way , '' Thaler @ @ @ @ @ @ @ inflicted by its use of surge pricing during Hurricane Sandy .
`` Amazon does n't want people to resent it , '' Cowen says .
`` Masks are a very small share of their overall business , but if people get upset at Amazon , the whole company could be worth less . ''
In other words , Amazon has an economic interest in not appearing cold-hearted in times like this .
For Cowen , the solution to the mask shortage is letting the market set the price .
`` Arguably , it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the world to let the price of the masks go higher .
But Amazon is selfishly preserving its reputation . ''
As for Daniel Tamasi , he ended up getting his masks .
He paid $ 50 for a box .
But they were the wrong masks !
`` I later found out that these might not actually be super effective against coronavirus , '' he says .
He did not get an N95 respirator mask , which has a close facial fit and blocks around 95 percent of airborne particles .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ level respirator mask to prevent the spread of coronavirus , but , again , this recommendation is currently only for health professionals .
On Saturday , the U.S .
Surgeon General Jerome Adams put it bluntly on Twitter : `` Seriously people — STOP BUYING MASKS ! ''
Did you enjoy this newsletter ?
Well , it looks even better in your inbox !
You can sign up here .

Are High Mask Prices The Problem Or The Solution?
Editor's note: This is an excerpt of Planet Money's newsletter. You can sign up here.
Enlarge this image FREDERIC J. BROWN/AFP via Getty Images FREDERIC J. BROWN/AFP via Getty Images
Last month, Daniel Tamasi, an IT manager in St. Louis, Missouri, decided he wanted to take some extra precautions against coronavirus. He has a two-year old, and he and his wife are expecting, so he started searching online for masks to protect his family. "I thought it was going to be my usual two-to-three minute Amazon search and, you know, I'd be done with it," he says.
He quickly found out that Amazon didn't offer its standard, two-day shipping for Prime members like him. In fact, the earliest he could find a delivery was about a month out. "So I went to the online stores of basically every major pharmacy — CVS, Walgreens, Target, and those sort of places — and they were all out of stock." Next he tried brick-and-mortar retailers around St. Louis. Still no luck.
Finally, Tamasi turned to eBay. He searched for masks there, and they were crazy expensive. The cheapest masks he could find on eBay, he says, were about four times their typical sticker price.
Around the world, people like Tamasi are scrambling for masks, and prices are rising. According to online price tracker Keepa, a 30-pack of 3M's popular N95 mask was selling on Amazon for $199.95 last Tuesday. Normally, it's about 15 bucks. According to Nielsen, a retail tracker, sales of medical masks have seen a 319% surge in national sales over the last month compared to the same time last year. And manufacturers are struggling to supply the demand.
For economists like George Mason's Tyler Cowen, this is all the sign of a properly functioning market. Higher prices are the market's way of screaming: We need more masks! "The normal economic view is that prices should be left free to make supply and demand equal," Cowen says.
Higher mask prices, he says, have at least two benefits. One is that people who need them the most are more likely to get them. At this moment, the CDC only recommends masks for medical professionals, and hospitals are running out. Those in the medical field, Cowen says, "are the ones willing to pay the most," and higher prices might cut down on frivolous buying by the general public. Higher prices are also a signal to manufacturers to make more masks.
There are obviously downsides to higher prices. Merchants are profiteering on fear, and higher prices mean only the more affluent can afford masks. "There is a genuine, legitimate fairness concern," Cowen says.
A majority of states around the country have laws against price gouging. California's, for example, forbids raising prices by more than ten percent if the governor has declared an emergency. We found no reports yet of these laws being applied to masks. According to most economists, setting a ceiling on mask prices would only add to the problem: "If you keep the price artificially low, there ends up being a shortage, not enough in the market," says Cowen.
It's not just politicians who are concerned about the optics of price gouging. Amazon, for example, has a policy urging "fair pricing." In recent weeks, it's told some sellers of masks on its marketplace that they could be suspended if they jack up their prices too much. "There is no place for price gouging on Amazon," says a company spokesperson. "We are disappointed that bad actors are attempting to artificially raise prices on basic need products during a global health crisis and, in line with our long-standing policy, have recently blocked or removed tens of thousands of offers."
Amazon's policy might seem strange, considering it's a profit-hungry corporation that uses fancy algorithms to increase prices all the time. But a famous study by Daniel Kahneman, Jack Knetsch, and Richard Thaler suggests profiteering during a calamity could hurt a company's bottom line if it results in long-lasting damage to their reputation. "Uber learned this the hard way," Thaler says, pointing to the PR damage inflicted by its use of surge pricing during Hurricane Sandy.
"Amazon doesn't want people to resent it," Cowen says. "Masks are a very small share of their overall business, but if people get upset at Amazon, the whole company could be worth less." In other words, Amazon has an economic interest in not appearing cold-hearted in times like this. For Cowen, the solution to the mask shortage is letting the market set the price. "Arguably, it would be better for the country and the world to let the price of the masks go higher. But Amazon is selfishly preserving its reputation."
As for Daniel Tamasi, he ended up getting his masks. He paid $50 for a box. But they were the wrong masks! "I later found out that these might not actually be super effective against coronavirus," he says. He did not get an N95 respirator mask, which has a close facial fit and blocks around 95 percent of airborne particles. The CDC recommends using an N95 or higher level respirator mask to prevent the spread of coronavirus, but, again, this recommendation is currently only for health professionals. On Saturday, the U.S. Surgeon General Jerome Adams put it bluntly on Twitter: "Seriously people — STOP BUYING MASKS!"
Did you enjoy this newsletter? Well, it looks even better in your inbox! You can sign up here.


npr--2020-03-04--How Computer Modeling Of COVID-19's Spread Could Help Fight The Virus

How Computer Modeling Of COVID-19 's Spread Could Help Fight The Virus Scientists who use math and computers to simulate the course of epidemics are taking on the new coronavirus to try to predict how this global outbreak might evolve and how best to tackle it .
But some say more could be done to take advantage of these modeling tools and the researchers ' findings .
`` It is sort of an ad hoc , volunteer effort , and I think that 's something that we could improve upon , '' says Caitlin Rivers , an infectious diseases modeler @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Security .
In her view , `` modeling plays a really important role in understanding how an outbreak is unfolding , where it might be going , and what we should be thinking through . ''
But only a small number of the modelers of epidemics work for the federal government , she says .
Most are in academia , and they do n't have formal relationships with officials who have to make key public health decisions .
Still , they are highly motivated to put their skills to use for the public @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as soon as the first reports of a new virus in China emerged in late December .
They 've made similar efforts for past outbreaks , like Ebola and Zika .
But this time around felt different , say people in the field .
`` I 've never seen the modeling community so galvanized , you know — around this outbreak , and willing to share and collaborate , '' says Cecile Viboud , a scientist at the Fogarty International Center , based at the National Institutes of Health .
And research teams @ @ @ @ @ @ @ By mid-January , one group had circulated an analysis listing the top 15 cities at risk of the virus spreading , based on airplane flights and travel data .
Another team announced that it had used the number of infected people detected outside China to help figure out what might really be going on in Wuhan city .
Those researchers estimated there were actually more than 1,700 cases at the time — though the official count of confirmed cases was only 41 .
`` Putting that information out really quickly helped to bring @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to say , 'There are now things that we can do , so let 's do that , ' '' says Rosalind Eggo , an infectious disease modeler at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine .
She and her colleagues recently took the best available information about transmission and looked at how feasible it would be to control the virus by isolating sick people and tracking down every person they 'd had contact with .
`` That 's a study that we did to try and give useful information to policy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ do with that strategy in order to have a good chance of controlling outbreaks , '' says Eggo .
What they found is that public health workers would need to trace a high percentage of a sick person 's contacts to be effective in shutting down an outbreak quickly .
`` You would need to trace at least 80 percent of contacts to have an 80 percent chance of containing an outbreak that started with 20 cases within three months , '' she says .
`` So that 's quite a high number @ @ @ @ @ @ @ places and potentially infeasible in others . ''
Her group also looked at the utility of screening airport travelers to try to detect infected people .
One simulation showed that if 100 infected travelers began a journey on a 12-hour flight , about half would not be detected by inbound or outbound traveler screening that was based on symptoms .
`` Due to the natural history of the infection , people spend about five days from when they get infected to when they start showing symptoms , '' Eggo explains .
`` In @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and wo n't be detected . ''
Studies like these can help public health officials decide where to concentrate their time , energy , and money .
During the Ebola epidemic in West Africa in 2014 , for example , models forecast that the outbreak would continue to grow rapidly without aggressive intervention .
`` These forecasts likely contributed to the acceleration of the international response and provided guidance for how resources might be effectively deployed , '' according to a recent commentary on `` outbreak science . ''
In recent weeks , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ been able to dial into weekly conference calls held by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention .
The CDC typically gives an update during these calls on where things stand with the new coronavirus and talks about the questions it needs help with , says Viboud .
She says one such call had more than 80 people on the line .
Epidemic modelers also have been communicating through the instant messaging platform Slack , as well as Twitter .
`` It 's never been as organized as it is now , '' @ @ @ @ @ @ @ model is only as good as the data that gets put into it .
`` Right now the quality of the data is so uncertain that we do n't know how good the models are going to be in projecting this kind of outbreak , '' says Marc Lipsitch , an epidemiologist at the Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health .
Modelers are eager for more information about critical issues , like how many people are infected without symptoms , and how much they can spread the virus to others .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ Lipsitch says that virtual outbreaks studied in computers can help policy makers just get their heads around various possible scenarios .
`` It 's really that models help you think about things , '' says Lipsitch , `` rather than that they tell you things for sure that you did n't know . ''
Some modelers believe that rather than just using models to react to emerging outbreaks , it would be better for the world to invest in real-time disease forecasting on an ongoing basis .
Sara Del Valle , a mathematical @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Laboratory , says that she 'd like to see a global center set up to constantly collect information about circulating infectious illnesses .
Much like the National Weather Service provides forecasts to help people prepare for their local weather , she says , such a center could tell people about their local risk of infectious diseases .
`` People could actually , you know , just open their phones and open an app and then see the probability of infection , '' she says .
`` It could say like , 'There 's @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in your community , based on what is spreading there . '
'' The advantage of a system like that , she says , is that all the researchers , plus data-gathering and modeling resources , would already be in place , if a new infectious disease threat like this coronavirus suddenly emerged .

How Computer Modeling Of COVID-19's Spread Could Help Fight The Virus
Scientists who use math and computers to simulate the course of epidemics are taking on the new coronavirus to try to predict how this global outbreak might evolve and how best to tackle it.
But some say more could be done to take advantage of these modeling tools and the researchers' findings.
"It is sort of an ad hoc, volunteer effort, and I think that's something that we could improve upon," says Caitlin Rivers, an infectious diseases modeler with the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security.
In her view, "modeling plays a really important role in understanding how an outbreak is unfolding, where it might be going, and what we should be thinking through."
But only a small number of the modelers of epidemics work for the federal government, she says. Most are in academia, and they don't have formal relationships with officials who have to make key public health decisions.
Still, they are highly motivated to put their skills to use for the public good. They got to work almost as soon as the first reports of a new virus in China emerged in late December.
They've made similar efforts for past outbreaks, such as Ebola and Zika. But this time around felt different, people in the field say.
"I've never seen the modeling community so galvanized, you know — around this outbreak, and willing to share and collaborate," says Cecile Viboud, a scientist at the Fogarty International Center, based at the National Institutes of Health.
And research teams have been rapidly churning out insights. By mid-January, one group had circulated an analysis listing the top 15 cities at risk of the virus spreading, based on airplane flights and travel data.
Another team announced that it had used the number of infected people detected outside China to help figure out what might really be going on in Wuhan city. Those researchers estimated that there were actually more than 1,700 cases at the time, though the official count of confirmed cases was only 41.
"Putting that information out really quickly helped to bring a lot more attention of other modelers to say, 'There are now things that we can do, so let's do that,'" says Rosalind Eggo, an infectious disease modeler at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine.
She and her colleagues recently took the best available information about transmission and looked at how feasible it would be to control the virus by isolating sick people and tracking down every person they'd had contact with.
"That's a study that we did to try and give useful information to policymakers about what they would need to do with that strategy in order to have a good chance of controlling outbreaks," says Eggo.
What they found is that public health workers would need to trace a high percentage of a sick person's contacts to be effective in shutting down an outbreak quickly.
"You would need to trace at least 80% of contacts to have an 80% chance of containing an outbreak that started with 20 cases within three months," she says. "So that's quite a high number. And it's feasible in some places and potentially infeasible in others."
Her group also looked at the utility of screening airport travelers to detect infected people. One simulation showed that if 100 infected travelers began a journey on a 12-hour flight, about half would not be detected by inbound or outbound traveler screening that was based on symptoms.
"Due to the natural history of the infection, people spend about five days from when they get infected to when they start showing symptoms," Eggo explains. "In that time period, they can travel and won't be detected."
Studies like these can help public health officials decide where to concentrate their time, energy and money.
During the Ebola epidemic in West Africa in 2014, for example, models forecast that the outbreak would continue to grow rapidly without aggressive intervention.
"These forecasts likely contributed to the acceleration of the international response and provided guidance for how resources might be effectively deployed," according to a recent commentary on "outbreak science."
In recent weeks, modelers inside and outside the government have been able to dial into weekly conference calls held by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
The CDC typically gives an update during these calls on where things stand with the new coronavirus and talks about the questions it needs help with, says Viboud. She says one such call had more than 80 people on the line.
Epidemic modelers also have been communicating through the instant messaging platform Slack, as well as Twitter.
"It's never been as organized as it is now," Viboud says.
Still, a computer model is only as good as the data that get put into it.
"Right now the quality of the data is so uncertain that we don't know how good the models are going to be in projecting this kind of outbreak," says Marc Lipsitch, an epidemiologist at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health.
Modelers are eager for more information about critical issues, such as how many people are infected without symptoms and how much they can spread the virus to others.
Even without perfect data, however, Lipsitch says that virtual outbreaks studied in computers can help policymakers just get their heads around various possible scenarios.
"It's really that models help you think about things," says Lipsitch, "rather than that they tell you things for sure that you didn't know."
Some modelers believe that rather than just using models to react to emerging outbreaks, it would be better for the world to invest in real-time disease forecasting on an ongoing basis.
Sara Del Valle, a mathematical and computational epidemiologist at Los Alamos National Laboratory, says she'd like to see a global center set up to constantly collect information about circulating infectious illnesses.
Much like how the National Weather Service provides forecasts to help people prepare for their local weather, she says, such a center could tell people about their local risk of infectious diseases.
"People could actually, you know, just open their phones and open an app and then see the probability of infection," she says. "It could say like, 'There's a 20% probability of getting flu in your community, based on what is spreading there.'"
The advantage of a system like that, she says, is that all of the researchers, plus data-gathering and modeling resources, would already be in place if a new infectious disease threat like this coronavirus suddenly emerged.


npr--2020-03-04--Coronavirus Fears Have Led To A Golden Age Of Hand-Washing PSAs

Coronavirus Fears Have Led To A Golden Age Of Hand-Washing PSAs The rapid spread of the new coronavirus has health officials scrambling to educate the public on good hygiene and best practices .
And the need to communicate those messages has resurrected a classic art form : the public service announcement , or PSA .
Because the coronavirus is a global concern , video PSAs are emerging from all corners of the globe , all at once .
Unsurprisingly , many of the cleverest videos are n't government productions .
Comedians , musicians and TikTokers are bringing humor and style @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in a time of quarantine and closed borders : the hand-washing tutorial .
For sheer danceability , this PSA from Vietnam 's Ministry of Health is the early winner .
The video features an absurdly catchy beat on the 2017 song `` Ghen '' by singers Min and Erik .
Give it a listen ( here with English subtitles ) and just try not to groove : The health ministry worked with the singers and with producer Khắc Hưng to write a new version of the song with lyrics about fighting coronavirus .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ channel , bringing the health message to her 1.2 million subscribers .
The dancer Quang Đăng quickly choreographed a dance to the song with moves that are TikTok ready , from hand-washing to donning a mask .
Want to learn the hand-washing dance ?
There 's a tutorial for that .
Singapore has a number of strong entries that follow the `` conversation among friends '' format .
These videos set themselves apart by talking about some of the outbreak 's less-discussed issues .
This video starts by discussing the problem of misinformation @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the other an air hug : `` I am trying not to touch anything . ''
A second video addresses the consequences of hoarding supplies .
`` We should n't panic , '' says one of the characters .
`` There are sufficient supplies of food .
And the government also has national stockpile of essential items .
If we all start hoarding , we will only cause anxiety , and deprive others who really need these things . ''
In Iran , the comedian Danial Kheirikhah posted an orchestral spoof on the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
His Chaplinesque performance infuses high art and physical comedy into the subject of hygiene .
The Nigerian actor and comedian known as Mr. Macaroni brings a dose of humor and reality to the advice about keeping a safe distance from others because of the new virus — especially when it comes to the ones you love .
In Israel , the Facebook user Inbar HB Levi posted a video of herself and a friend in a coronavirus-themed spoof of The Knack 's 1979 hit `` My Sharona . ''
Shrouded in medical @ @ @ @ @ @ @ or disease ?
/ Pandemonium / Just as long as it does n't reach meeeeee corona . ''
In Japan , the Ministry of Health , Labor and Welfare posted videos on how to scrub your hands really well and demonstrates its suggested technique for wearing surgical masks .
A video from Italy 's Ministry of Health stars the well-known television presenter Amadeus .
The production is a bit spare , but the message comes through : Washing your hands often is importantissimo .

Coronavirus Fears Have Led To A Golden Age Of Hand-Washing PSAs
Enlarge this image toggle caption Quang Đăng/YouTube Quang Đăng/YouTube
The rapid spread of the new coronavirus has health officials scrambling to educate the public on good hygiene and best practices. And the need to communicate those messages has resurrected a classic art form: the public service announcement, or PSA.
Because the coronavirus is a global concern, video PSAs are emerging from all corners of the globe, all at once.
Unsurprisingly, many of the cleverest videos aren't government productions. Comedians, musicians and TikTokers are bringing humor and style to a genre that's thriving globally in a time of quarantine and closed borders: the hand-washing tutorial.
Vietnam
For sheer danceability, this PSA from Vietnam's Ministry of Health is the early winner. The video features an absurdly catchy beat on the 2017 song "Ghen" by singers Min and Erik.
Give it a listen (here with English subtitles) and just try not to groove:
Nikki Châu Ngọc Trân YouTube
The health ministry worked with the singers and with producer Khắc Hưng to write a new version of the song with lyrics about fighting coronavirus. Min released the video on her YouTube channel, bringing the health message to her 1.2 million subscribers.
The dancer Quang Đăng quickly choreographed a dance to the song with moves that are TikTok ready, from hand-washing to donning a mask.
Quang Đăng YouTube
Want to learn the hand-washing dance? There's a tutorial for that.
Singapore
Singapore has a number of strong entries that follow the "conversation among friends" format. These videos set themselves apart by talking about some of the outbreak's less-discussed issues.
This video starts by discussing the problem of misinformation and ends with one man offering the other an air hug: "I am trying not to touch anything."
meWATCH YouTube
A second video addresses the consequences of hoarding supplies.
meWATCH YouTube
"We shouldn't panic," says one of the characters. "There are sufficient supplies of food. And the government also has national stockpile of essential items. If we all start hoarding, we will only cause anxiety and deprive others who really need these things."
Iran
In Iran, the comedian Danial Kheirikhah posted an orchestral spoof on the proper way to wash one's hands. His Chaplinesque performance infuses high art and physical comedy into the subject of hygiene.
Nigeria
The Nigerian actor and comedian known as Mr. Macaroni brings a dose of humor and reality to the advice about keeping a safe distance from others because of the new virus — especially when it comes to the ones you love.
Israel
In Israel, the Facebook user Inbar HB Levi posted a video of herself and a friend in a coronavirus-themed spoof of The Knack's 1979 hit "My Sharona."
Shrouded in medical wear, they sing: "Pandemic or disease? / Pandemonium / Just as long as it doesn't reach meeeeee corona."
Japan
Japan's public health service posted a video showing good hand-washing technique. MHLWchannel YouTube
In Japan, the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare posted videos on how to scrub your hands really well and demonstrates its suggested technique for wearing surgical masks.
Italy
A PSA from Italy's health ministry stars the TV presenter Amadeus. MinisteroSalute YouTube
A video from Italy's Ministry of Health stars the well-known television presenter Amadeus. The production is a bit spare, but the message comes through: Washing your hands often is importantissimo.


npr--2020-03-04--Former Prisoner Recalls Sanders Saying, 'I Don't Know What's So Wrong' With Cuba

Former Prisoner Recalls Sanders Saying , ' I Do n't Know What 's So Wrong ' With Cuba American Alan Gross , a prisoner in Cuba for five years during the Obama administration , is accusing Sen. Bernie Sanders of commending the communist country when he came to visit him behind bars .
Sanders visited Cuba as part of a congressional delegation in 2014 , along with Sens .
Heidi Heitkamp and Jon Tester .
During the one-hour meeting , Sanders told the prisoner that he did n't understand why others criticized Cuba , Gross said in an interview with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ : ' I do n't know what 's so wrong with this country , ' `` Gross recalled .
Sanders ' campaign declined to comment about the meeting with Gross , and Tester said he did not recall the discussion .
A source close to Heitkamp said the then-North Dakota senator remembered that Sanders seemed to disregard the meeting with Gross and that an uncomfortable exchange occurred , but did not remember the exact remark .
Sanders has long faced criticism for remarks he has made about autocratic governments , most recently in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
During the interview , Sanders gave qualified praise to deceased Cuban leader Fidel Castro , citing the country 's high literacy rate .
`` We 're very opposed to the authoritarian nature of Cuba .
But it 's unfair to simply say that everything is bad , '' Sanders told 60 Minutes .
`` When Fidel Castro came into office , you know what he did ?
He had a massive literacy program .
Is that a bad thing , even though Fidel Castro did it ? ''
This follows other positive @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in Cuba , Nicaragua and the Soviet Union over the course of his decades-long political career .
Gross , who now says he opposes Sanders ' campaign for president , was arrested in December 2009 after completing a U.S. Agency for International Development subcontract .
He was in Cuba working to expand Internet access to the country 's small Jewish community , beyond the restrictive Internet regulations set by the Castro government .
He spent 1,841 days in detention , during which he lost five teeth and over 100 pounds .
He also @ @ @ @ @ @ @ his fingernails and to hang him .
`` The first year of my captivity was akin to sensory deprivation because I saw about 20 minutes of sunlight during the first year , '' Gross said .
The Obama administration and Gross ' advocates said he was wrongfully convicted .
He was ultimately released by Cuba in exchange for the U.S. government releasing three Cubans convicted of spying .
The congressional delegation visited Gross in Cuba in 2014 to press for his release .
Gross said Heitkamp and Tester brought him a big bag @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a memory that Gross remains fond of today because of his undernourishment at the time .
Sanders brought an issue of The Atlantic magazine .
Gross was also allowed to wear civilian clothes for the visit — a treat because normally he was allowed to wear only prison pajamas .
He said he had a pleasant conversation with Heitkamp and Tester , while Sanders remained mostly quiet for the duration of their one-hour meeting .
`` Senator Sanders did n't really engage much in the conversation , '' Gross said .
But near @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a comment to the detained American , saying he did n't see what was so wrong with the country .
Gross , as a prisoner in that country , said he took offense to the remark .
`` I just think , you know , it was a stupid thing for him to do , '' Gross told NPR .
`` First , how could he not have seen the incredible deterioration of what was once the grandeur of the pre-Castro era .
And two , how could be so insensitive to make @ @ @ @ @ @ @ me ! ''
Gross , now retired and splitting his time between Tel Aviv , Israel , and Washington , D.C. , said that he felt compelled to speak out about Sanders ' comments now because of the interview that the senator gave to 60 Minutes and his reference to the issue in the debates .
`` I mean , it 's relevant now .
The guy 's running for president of the United States , '' Gross said .
`` And for him to make those statements demonstrating a basic lack of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ me .
I do n't want to see this guy in the White House . ''
Gross had alluded to this story before , in a podcast with Politico in 2016 .
But as he told the story he backtracked .
`` I had the impression that Bernie did n't see that there was so much wrong with the country that he was visiting , '' Gross told Politico , before adding : `` Oh , no , no , no .
Not really .
Not really .
He did n't say so @ @ @ @ @ @ @ now that he did n't want to cause a stir .
`` I wanted to soften the blow at the time because I did n't really think it was all that relevant to what we were talking about for the podcast , '' he said .

Former Prisoner Recalls Sanders Saying, 'I Don't Know What's So Wrong' With Cuba
Enlarge this image toggle caption Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images
American Alan Gross, a prisoner in Cuba for five years during the Obama administration, is accusing Bernie Sanders of commending the communist country when the senator came to visit him behind bars.
Sanders visited Cuba as part of a congressional delegation in 2014, along with Sens. Heidi Heitkamp and Jon Tester.
During the one-hour meeting, Sanders told the prisoner that he didn't understand why others criticized Cuba, Gross said in an interview with NPR.
"He said, quote: 'I don't know what's so wrong with this country,' " Gross recalled.
Sanders' campaign declined to comment about the meeting with Gross, and Tester said he did not recall the discussion.
A source close to Heitkamp said the then-North Dakota senator remembered that Sanders seemed to disregard the meeting with Gross and that an uncomfortable exchange occurred, but did not remember the exact remark.
Sanders has long faced criticism for remarks he has made about autocratic governments, most recently in an interview last week with 60 Minutes.
During the interview, Sanders gave qualified praise to deceased Cuban leader Fidel Castro, citing the country's high literacy rate.
"We're very opposed to the authoritarian nature of Cuba. But it's unfair to simply say that everything is bad," Sanders told 60 Minutes. "When Fidel Castro came into office, you know what he did? He had a massive literacy program. Is that a bad thing, even though Fidel Castro did it?"
This follows other positive comments Sanders has made about dictatorial regimes in Cuba, Nicaragua and the Soviet Union over the course of his decades-long political career.
Gross, who now says he opposes Sanders' campaign for president, was arrested in December 2009 after completing a U.S. Agency for International Development subcontract. He was in Cuba working to expand Internet access to the country's small Jewish community, beyond the restrictive Internet regulations set by the Castro government.
He spent 1,841 days in detention, during which he lost five teeth and over 100 pounds. He also said his interrogators threatened to pull out his fingernails and to hang him.
"The first year of my captivity was akin to sensory deprivation because I saw about 20 minutes of sunlight during the first year," Gross said.
The Obama administration and Gross' advocates said he was wrongfully convicted. He was ultimately released by Cuba in exchange for the U.S. government releasing three Cubans convicted of spying.
The congressional delegation visited Gross in Cuba in 2014 to press for his release.
Gross said Heitkamp and Tester brought him a big bag of peanut M&M's, a memory that Gross remains fond of today because of his undernourishment at the time. Sanders brought an issue of The Atlantic magazine. Gross was also allowed to wear civilian clothes for the visit — a treat because normally he was allowed to wear only prison pajamas.
He said he had a pleasant conversation with Heitkamp and Tester, while Sanders remained mostly quiet for the duration of their one-hour meeting.
"Senator Sanders didn't really engage much in the conversation," Gross said.
But near the end, the Vermont senator offered a comment to the detained American, saying he didn't see what was so wrong with the country.
Gross, as a prisoner in that country, said he took offense to the remark.
"I just think, you know, it was a stupid thing for him to do," Gross told NPR. "First, how could he not have seen the incredible deterioration of what was once the grandeur of the pre-Castro era. And two, how could be so insensitive to make that remark to a political hostage — me!"
Enlarge this image toggle caption Michael Tullberg/Getty Images Michael Tullberg/Getty Images
Gross, now retired and splitting his time between Tel Aviv, Israel, and Washington, D.C., said that he felt compelled to speak out about Sanders' comments now because of the interview that the senator gave to 60 Minutes and his reference to the issue in the debates.
"I mean, it's relevant now. The guy's running for president of the United States," Gross said. "And for him to make those statements demonstrating a basic lack of a grasp on reality is problematic to me. I don't want to see this guy in the White House."
Gross had alluded to this story before, in a podcast with Politico in 2016. But as he told the story he backtracked.
"I had the impression that Bernie didn't see that there was so much wrong with the country that he was visiting," Gross told Politico, before adding: "Oh, no, no, no. Not really. Not really. He didn't say so much as that."
Gross says now that he didn't want to cause a stir.
"I wanted to soften the blow at the time because I didn't really think it was all that relevant to what we were talking about for the podcast," he said.


npr--2020-03-04--Students Want To Fix Air Quality For People With Asthma On The Yakama Reservation

Students Want To Fix Air Quality For People With Asthma On The Yakama Reservation Near the middle of the Yakama Reservation , Travis Hull lives with his kids and dog in a trailer .
Two of his four kids have asthma .
Tyson , his middle son , has a particularly bad case .
`` He 'd go through coughing attacks that were just horrible , '' Hull said .
`` He had to be hospitalized a few times when he was a little person . ''
Hull said it was hard to see his son in an oxygen tent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , so of course you 're scared for him , '' Hull said .
`` And of course you 're a parent .
It hurts you to see them go through it . ''
Among Native Americans , asthma rates are high , and Native Americans with asthma end up in clinics more often , miss more school and work , and are more likely to die from the condition , according to the CDC .
On the Yakama Reservation in eastern Washington , one group of students is trying to solve the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Hull said one of the things that would set off his son 's coughing was smoke .
Many households on the reservation have only wood stoves to keep warm during eastern Washington 's bitterly cold winters .
That 's because electric heat is expensive , but wood is free ; members of the Yakama Nation have a treaty-guaranteed right to gather wood to heat their homes .
`` If you stood out on the deck , you would see as far as the foothills , '' Hull said , `` and this whole @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in this valley . ''
`` And it really has an impact on people 's health , '' said Jessica Black , an environmental science professor at Heritage University on the Yakama Reservation .
`` We know that there 's things that can be done , but , without any data , there 's not a lot we can do , '' Black said .
In order to gather that data , Black enlisted students at a high school on the reservation to set up low-cost air quality monitors across the Yakama Nation @ @ @ @ @ @ @ comfortable having people that they feel like they know enter their homes so that they can place the air quality monitors , '' Black explained .
After school and basketball practice one Wednesday in early December , half a dozen White Swan High School students gathered in a computer lab to learn how to set up the monitors .
In past years , many students put monitors up in their own homes .
Alexa Weaseltail put one in the home of her cousin , who has a wood stove .
`` When we @ @ @ @ @ @ @ really bad , '' Weaseltail remembered .
`` And we did n't expect it to be that bad . ''
Weaseltail herself grew up in a house with a wood stove , and she has asthma .
`` Maybe we should clear the environment and have cleaner air , '' Weaseltail said .
The monitors Weaseltail and others are setting up detect particulate matter from other sources , like forest fires and smudge pots .
But , in the winter , the biggest problem is wood smoke from heating homes .
Keith Hurley @ @ @ @ @ @ @ air agency , runs a program for low-income families to get up to $ 6,000 to swap out old , dirty stoves for newer stoves that burn cleaner .
`` Wood stove changeout was my way of addressing to the greatest extent possible the emissions , '' Hurley said .
It 's a voluntary program that offers stoves to some people on and off the reservation .
`` The more of these we get changed out , the greater the reduction will be in the particulate that 's put into the airshed in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Over the past year , the agency has spent about $ 600,000 changing out about 100 stoves .
There 's a smaller amount of money from the EPA doing the same .
And the federal agency is also working with the Yakama Nation to better regulate older , dirtier wood stoves .
This story came to NPR with help from USC Annenberg 's Center for Health Journalism .

Students Want To Fix Air Quality For People With Asthma On The Yakama Reservation
Enlarge this image toggle caption Eilís O'Neill /KUOW Eilís O'Neill /KUOW
Near the middle of the Yakama Reservation, Travis Hull lives with his kids and dog in a trailer. Two of his four kids have asthma.
Tyson, his middle son, has a particularly bad case.
"He'd go through coughing attacks that were just horrible," Hull said. "He had to be hospitalized a few times when he was a little person."
Hull said it was hard to see his son in an oxygen tent.
"And it's scaring him, so of course you're scared for him," Hull said. "And of course you're a parent. It hurts you to see them go through it."
Among Native Americans, asthma rates are high, and Native Americans with asthma end up in clinics more often, miss more school and work, and are more likely to die from the condition, according to the CDC. On the Yakama Reservation in eastern Washington, one group of students is trying to solve the problem by attacking its roots.
Health Health Workers Try Community Approach To Tackle Asthma On Navajo Reservation Health Workers Try Community Approach To Tackle Asthma On Navajo Reservation Listen · 5:49 5:49
Travis Hull said one of the things that would set off his son's coughing was smoke.
Many households on the reservation have only wood stoves to keep warm during eastern Washington's bitterly cold winters.
That's because electric heat is expensive, but wood is free; members of the Yakama Nation have a treaty-guaranteed right to gather wood to heat their homes.
"If you stood out on the deck, you would see as far as the foothills," Hull said, "and this whole valley — the smoke will just sit in this valley."
Enlarge this image toggle caption Eilís O'Neill /KUOW Eilís O'Neill /KUOW
"And it really has an impact on people's health," said Jessica Black, an environmental science professor at Heritage University on the Yakama Reservation.
"We know that there's things that can be done, but, without any data, there's not a lot we can do," Black said.
In order to gather that data, Black enlisted students at a high school on the reservation to set up low-cost air quality monitors across the Yakama Nation.
"The families are far more comfortable having people that they feel like they know enter their homes so that they can place the air quality monitors," Black explained.
After school and basketball practice one Wednesday in early December, half a dozen White Swan High School students gathered in a computer lab to learn how to set up the monitors.
In past years, many students put monitors up in their own homes.
Alexa Weaseltail put one in the home of her cousin, who has a wood stove.
"When we saw the data, it was like really bad," Weaseltail remembered. "And we didn't expect it to be that bad."
Weaseltail herself grew up in a house with a wood stove, and she has asthma.
"Maybe we should clear the environment and have cleaner air," Weaseltail said.
The monitors Weaseltail and others are setting up detect particulate matter from other sources, like forest fires and smudge pots.
But, in the winter, the biggest problem is wood smoke from heating homes.
Keith Hurley, director of the county's clean air agency, runs a program for low-income families to get up to $6,000 to swap out old, dirty stoves for newer stoves that burn cleaner.
"Wood stove changeout was my way of addressing to the greatest extent possible the emissions," Hurley said.
It's a voluntary program that offers stoves to some people on and off the reservation.
"The more of these we get changed out, the greater the reduction will be in the particulate that's put into the airshed in the winter months," Hurley said.
Over the past year, the agency has spent about $600,000 changing out about 100 stoves.
There's a smaller amount of money from the EPA doing the same.
And the federal agency is also working with the Yakama Nation to better regulate older, dirtier wood stoves.
This story came to NPR with help from USC Annenberg's Center for Health Journalism.