npr--2020-09-10--Trump's Attacks Put Military In 'Presidential Campaign Minefield'

During a press conference at the White House on Labor Day , President Trump lashed out at Democratic rival Joe Biden , claiming the former vice president threw open the borders , shipped away jobs and sent America 's youth to fight in `` crazy endless wars . ''
Then the president veered into talk of the military , taking aim at the Pentagon brass and separating them from the rank-and-file troops .
`` I 'm not saying the military is in love with me ; the soldiers are .
The top people in the Pentagon probably are n't because @ @ @ @ @ @ @ wars so that all of these wonderful companies that make the bombs and [ make ] the places and make everything else stay happy . ''
Eliot Cohen , a military expert at Johns Hopkins University 's School of Advanced International Studies , could not recall such a character attack on top military leaders by a commander in chief .
`` In a word , I do n't remember anything remotely like this , ever , '' Cohen said .
`` FDR grumbled about [ Army Gen. ] Douglas MacArthur , but that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be president .
Other presidents grumbled about generals not doing what they were told , or not doing it quickly enough . ''
Richard Kohn , an emeritus professor at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill and a longtime observer of the military , said what 's unusual is both Trump 's harsh rhetoric and the public nature of it all .
`` No president in my experience or in my scholarly work has ever made such disparaging remarks toward the military as a whole , '' he said .
`` @ @ @ @ @ @ @ military service , or individual leaders at the top of the military , or even the leadership but almost always in private . ''
For example , President Barack Obama and his aides often complained the Pentagon leadership was trying to box them in over troop increases in Afghanistan — but always in private .
John Kennedy told his aides the Joint Chiefs were too eager for military action during the 1962 Cuban missile crisis as opposed to the blockade he chose to end the crisis .
For Peter Feaver , an expert @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Trump 's comments and his actions amount to an effort to politicize an institution that 's supposed to be nonpartisan .
`` The U.S. military is right where it least wants to be , '' he wrote , `` in the middle of the 2020 presidential campaign minefield . ''
The Pentagon had no comment on what the president had to say this week about `` the top people in the Pentagon . ''
But one senior officer — Gen. James McConville , the Army chief of staff — was asked to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ He tried to tread carefully , insisting that recommendations to a president about military action have everything to do with national security and not business deals .
`` Many of these leaders have sons and daughters that serve in the military , many of these leaders have sons and daughters who have gone to combat or may be in combat right now , '' McConville said during an online forum hosted by Defense One , a media organization focusing on the U.S. military .
`` I can assure the American people , '' @ @ @ @ @ @ @ leaders would only recommend sending our troops to combat when it is required in national security and in the last resort .
We take this very , very seriously in how we make our recommendations . ''
Michael O'Hanlon , a defense analyst at the Brookings Institution , noted that the top Pentagon officials — McConville , Defense Secretary Mark Esper and Gen. Mark Milley , chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff — were Trump appointees .
`` Even by Trump 's standards , this blame the military approach is bizarre , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not launch the Iraq or Afghanistan wars or anything else like that : The civilians made those calls .
Indeed DOD leadership held Trump back from possible war in Korea three years ago , underscoring the risks of his brinkmanship and talk of 'bloody nose ' attacks . ''
Still , Trump also appointed former Marine Gen. James Mattis to run the Pentagon — before souring on him .
Mattis tried on a number of occasions to hold back Trump from taking military action — and toned down the missile strike on chemical @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Trump 's frustration likely comes from his failure to fulfill his campaign pledge to bring troops home from Afghanistan , Syria and Iraq .
Trump actually increased U.S. troops to Iraq in 2017 by the thousands .
And while U.S. troops have decreased — or are decreasing — in all three countries , Trump complained about the continued American presence — and the money being spent .
Even though , the Islamic State caliphate was `` defeated 100 % , '' the president was convinced by military leaders to keep hundreds of troops @ @ @ @ @ @ @ organization from resurging .
`` Some people do n't like to come home .
Some people like to continue to spend money , '' the president told reporters on Labor Day .
`` One coldhearted globalist betrayal after another , and that 's what it was . ''
Moreover , Pentagon leaders have balked at other requests from Trump .
When the president threatened to send in the military to quell protests and unrest after the death of George Floyd at the hands of Minneapolis police , Esper publicly said active-duty troops should @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was furious and threatened to fire him , though cooler heads prevailed .
And when Pentagon civilian and military leaders moved to ban the Confederate flag from military bases and favored renaming bases named after Confederate generals , the president disagreed , saying both were part of American heritage .
Add to all that the former senior officers and officials who have publicly — and sharply — criticized him .
Mattis called Trump divisive .
Retired Gen. Stanley McChrystal , questioned in a TV interview , labeled the president immoral , while retired @ @ @ @ @ @ @ threat to the republic .
Trump lashed back , calling Mattis `` overrated '' and McChrystal `` dumb '' and dismissing McRaven as an `` Obama backer . ''
Tammy Schultz , a Georgetown University professor specializing in military issues , said such comments are corrosive to civilian military relations .
A commander in chief , she said , `` requires a consistent temperament for the good of the military as well as civilian leaders underneath the president . ''
Moreover , Schultz said Trump has tried to use the military as a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ `` At various points , [ Trump ] has referred to 'my military ' or 'my generals ' and with great affection , '' she said , `` and apparently at other times with deep contempt . ''
It seems the president , the University of North Carolina 's Kohn said , is trying to drive a wedge between officers and rank-and-file troops for political gain .
`` Trump has from the beginning pandered to the enlisted force , '' Kohn said , `` implicitly setting them against the officers just as he @ @ @ @ @ @ @ champion of the mass of the American public . ''
All that likely adds to Trump 's perception that there 's a divide between the top brass and the rank-and-file soldiers .
Trump did enjoy wide support among the enlisted ranks , more so than officers .
At the start of the Trump presidency , a poll by Military Times found that 46 % of troops had favorable view of him , and 37 % had an unfavorable opinion .
Now those numbers have reversed .
In the latest results — based on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ late July and early August , about half — 49.9 % — had an unfavorable view , while 38 % had a favorable view .
Of those polled , more than 59 % of officers said they have a poor view of the president .
Among enlisted respondents , 47 % said they have an unfavorable view Military leaders are aware they can be pulled increasingly into the election and have advised their subordinates and political leaders about their concerns .
They are carefully watching to make sure they 're not drawn into @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Duke professor , remains concerned as well , especially in the next two months as the race tightens , and Trump looks to shore up support or expand his base .
`` The first threat is the lingering possibility that violent protests on city streets will once again raise the prospect of President Trump deploying active-duty troops to support local law enforcement , '' he said .
`` It might be more likely than not that this issue will return as a live option before Election Day . ''
During protests in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Trump ordered active-duty troops to take part , but Pentagon officials kept them outside the city , preferring to use police and National Guard forces .
But what if Trump insists next time ?
For Feaver , `` the really ominous threat '' is the prospect of the military being drawn into a contested election `` by forcibly preventing a losing candidate from grabbing political power . ''
Such a scenario has been suggested by military analysts and opinion writers , but readily dismissed by Pentagon officials .
Still , Feaver said , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to grow . ''
Members of Congress recently asked the top military official , Milley , about such a possibility .
`` In the event of a dispute over some aspect of the elections , by law U.S. courts and the U.S. Congress are required to resolve any disputes , not the U.S. military , '' Milley wrote .
`` I believe deeply in the principle of an apolitical U.S .
military . ''

Trump's Attacks Put Military In 'Presidential Campaign Minefield'
Enlarge this image toggle caption Brendan Smialowski/AFP via Getty Images Brendan Smialowski/AFP via Getty Images
During a press conference at the White House on Labor Day, President Trump lashed out at Democratic rival Joe Biden, claiming the former vice president threw open the borders, shipped away jobs and sent America's youth to fight in "crazy endless wars."
Then the president veered into talk of the military, taking aim at the Pentagon brass and separating them from the rank-and-file troops.
"I'm not saying the military is in love with me; the soldiers are. The top people in the Pentagon probably aren't because they want to do nothing but fight wars so that all of these wonderful companies that make the bombs and [make] the places and make everything else stay happy."
Eliot Cohen, a military expert at Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies, could not recall such a character attack on top military leaders by a commander in chief.
"In a word, I don't remember anything remotely like this, ever," Cohen said. "FDR grumbled about [Army Gen.] Douglas MacArthur, but that was because he thought he wanted to be president. Other presidents grumbled about generals not doing what they were told, or not doing it quickly enough."
Richard Kohn, an emeritus professor at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill and a longtime observer of the military, said what's unusual is both Trump's harsh rhetoric and the public nature of it all.
"No president in my experience or in my scholarly work has ever made such disparaging remarks toward the military as a whole," he said. "A few have criticized some aspects of military service, or individual leaders at the top of the military, or even the leadership but almost always in private."
National Security Esper And Milley Testify On Military's Role In Handling Recent Protests Esper And Milley Testify On Military's Role In Handling Recent Protests Listen · 4:11 4:11
For example, President Barack Obama and his aides often complained the Pentagon leadership was trying to box them in over troop increases in Afghanistan — but always in private. John Kennedy told his aides the Joint Chiefs were too eager for military action during the 1962 Cuban missile crisis as opposed to the blockade he chose to end the crisis.
For Peter Feaver, an expert on civilian military relations at Duke University, Trump's comments and his actions amount to an effort to politicize an institution that's supposed to be nonpartisan.
"The U.S. military is right where it least wants to be," he wrote, "in the middle of the 2020 presidential campaign minefield."
The Pentagon had no comment on what the president had to say this week about "the top people in the Pentagon." But one senior officer — Gen. James McConville, the Army chief of staff — was asked to offer his views at a forum. He tried to tread carefully, insisting that recommendations to a president about military action have everything to do with national security and not business deals.
"Many of these leaders have sons and daughters that serve in the military, many of these leaders have sons and daughters who have gone to combat or may be in combat right now," McConville said during an online forum hosted by Defense One, a media organization focusing on the U.S. military.
"I can assure the American people," McConville added, "that the senior leaders would only recommend sending our troops to combat when it is required in national security and in the last resort. We take this very, very seriously in how we make our recommendations."
Michael O'Hanlon, a defense analyst at the Brookings Institution, noted that the top Pentagon officials — McConville, Defense Secretary Mark Esper and Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff — were Trump appointees.
"Even by Trump's standards, this blame the military approach is bizarre," O'Hanlon said. "It did not launch the Iraq or Afghanistan wars or anything else like that: The civilians made those calls. Indeed DOD leadership held Trump back from possible war in Korea three years ago, underscoring the risks of his brinkmanship and talk of 'bloody nose' attacks."
Still, Trump also appointed former Marine Gen. James Mattis to run the Pentagon — before souring on him. Mattis tried on a number of occasions to hold back Trump from taking military action — and toned down the missile strike on chemical weapons facilities in Syria.
Part of Trump's frustration likely comes from his failure to fulfill his campaign pledge to bring troops home from Afghanistan, Syria and Iraq. Trump actually increased U.S. troops to Iraq in 2017 by the thousands.
National Security The U.S. Plans To Reduce Troops In Iraq The U.S. Plans To Reduce Troops In Iraq Listen · 4:29 4:29
And while U.S. troops have decreased — or are decreasing — in all three countries, Trump complained about the continued American presence — and the money being spent. Even though, the Islamic State caliphate was "defeated 100%," the president was convinced by military leaders to keep hundreds of troops in Syria to prevent the Islamic militant organization from resurging.
"Some people don't like to come home. Some people like to continue to spend money," the president told reporters on Labor Day. "One coldhearted globalist betrayal after another, and that's what it was."
Moreover, Pentagon leaders have balked at other requests from Trump. When the president threatened to send in the military to quell protests and unrest after the death of George Floyd at the hands of Minneapolis police, Esper publicly said active-duty troops should not be used.
Sources said Trump was furious and threatened to fire him, though cooler heads prevailed.
And when Pentagon civilian and military leaders moved to ban the Confederate flag from military bases and favored renaming bases named after Confederate generals, the president disagreed, saying both were part of American heritage.
Add to all that the former senior officers and officials who have publicly — and sharply — criticized him. Mattis called Trump divisive. Retired Gen. Stanley McChrystal, questioned in a TV interview, labeled the president immoral, while retired Adm. Bill McRaven said Trump was a threat to the republic.
Trump lashed back, calling Mattis "overrated" and McChrystal "dumb" and dismissing McRaven as an "Obama backer."
Tammy Schultz, a Georgetown University professor specializing in military issues, said such comments are corrosive to civilian military relations.
A commander in chief, she said, "requires a consistent temperament for the good of the military as well as civilian leaders underneath the president."
Moreover, Schultz said Trump has tried to use the military as a political prop — or political enemy.
"At various points, [Trump] has referred to 'my military' or 'my generals' and with great affection," she said, "and apparently at other times with deep contempt."
It seems the president, the University of North Carolina's Kohn said, is trying to drive a wedge between officers and rank-and-file troops for political gain.
"Trump has from the beginning pandered to the enlisted force," Kohn said, "implicitly setting them against the officers just as he attacks other elites and poses as a champion of the mass of the American public."
All that likely adds to Trump's perception that there's a divide between the top brass and the rank-and-file soldiers. Trump did enjoy wide support among the enlisted ranks, more so than officers.
At the start of the Trump presidency, a poll by Military Times found that 46% of troops had favorable view of him, and 37% had an unfavorable opinion. Now those numbers have reversed.
In the latest results — based on more than 1,000 active-duty troops surveyed in late July and early August, about half — 49.9% — had an unfavorable view, while 38% had a favorable view.
Of those polled, more than 59% of officers said they have a poor view of the president. Among enlisted respondents, 47% said they have an unfavorable view
Military leaders are aware they can be pulled increasingly into the election and have advised their subordinates and political leaders about their concerns. They are carefully watching to make sure they're not drawn into any overt political scenes.
Feaver, the Duke professor, remains concerned as well, especially in the next two months as the race tightens, and Trump looks to shore up support or expand his base.
"The first threat is the lingering possibility that violent protests on city streets will once again raise the prospect of President Trump deploying active-duty troops to support local law enforcement," he said. "It might be more likely than not that this issue will return as a live option before Election Day."
During protests in Washington, D.C., in June, Trump ordered active-duty troops to take part, but Pentagon officials kept them outside the city, preferring to use police and National Guard forces. But what if Trump insists next time?
For Feaver, "the really ominous threat" is the prospect of the military being drawn into a contested election "by forcibly preventing a losing candidate from grabbing political power."
Such a scenario has been suggested by military analysts and opinion writers, but readily dismissed by Pentagon officials. Still, Feaver said, "the concerns are palpable and likely to grow."
Members of Congress recently asked the top military official, Milley, about such a possibility.
"In the event of a dispute over some aspect of the elections, by law U.S. courts and the U.S. Congress are required to resolve any disputes, not the U.S. military," Milley wrote. "I believe deeply in the principle of an apolitical U.S. military."


npr--2020-09-10--Venezuela's Fuel Shortage Upends Longtime Colombian Border Gas Smuggling Trade

Venezuela 's worst economic meltdown in history has had a huge impact on neighboring Colombia , where hospitals , schools and welfare agencies are dealing with 2 million Venezuelan refugees .
But the crisis has produced at least one silver lining for Colombia : the curtailing of gasoline smuggling .
For decades , Colombian motorists along the border eschewed gas stations to fill their tanks with cheaper , smuggled Venezuelan fuel .
The practice gave rise to powerful smuggling mafias while local governments lost out on gasoline taxes .
Now , however , Venezuela 's oil industry has collapsed .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ while the government 's lack of cash to import gasoline , combined with U.S. sanctions targeting the oil sector , have led to chronic fuel shortages .
That means Venezuelans now pay as much as $ 10 a gallon on the black market and that there 's no more cheap fuel left to resell in Colombia .
`` The business has totally died , '' says José López , a former fuel smuggler in the Colombian border city of Cúcuta who now runs a car wash .
Gasoline smuggling here took off in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ led to a spike in gas prices in much of the world , including Colombia .
By contrast , Venezuela , which is home to the world 's largest oil reserves , kept prices artificially low with heavy government subsidies .
Filling a car tank cost pennies .
As a result , smugglers made huge profits by reselling gas in Colombia .
Often , they would fill up cars and trucks at Venezuelan service stations then drive to Colombia and siphon the fuel into storage tanks .
Smugglers also used dozens of clandestine @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on motorcycles , bicycles , mules and handcarts .
Then , like moonshiners , they would sell it out of plastic jugs from garages , in back alleys and along highways .
Contraband gas provided jobs to poor families on both sides of the border .
But it also swelled the coffers of Colombian guerrillas and drug-trafficking groups that were involved in the business , says Victor Bautista , the top border official in Colombia 's Norte de Santander department , which abuts Venezuela .
Smuggling gas and purchasing it is illegal .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ drugs , clamping down proved impossible and Colombian authorities often looked the other way , says Marco Arévalo , a former official with Colombia 's Transportation Ministry .
Arévalo points out that local and state governments along the border were deprived of millions of dollars in gasoline taxes that could have gone toward building roads and schools .
The business also gave Cúcuta a chaotic feel with street-corner venders perched atop containers of gas , waving funnels and hoses in the air to attract customers .
`` There were hardly any gas stations @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a viable business , '' Arévalo says .
There were also accidents .
Arévalo says that at least 20 people in and around Cúcuta were killed in explosions as they transferred gasoline into car tanks .
One smuggler who barely escaped death was Álvaro Albarracín , who operated a clandestine warehouse in the city where he kept dozens of fuel containers stacked against the walls .
`` I was filling up a car tank and then , at one point , there was a spark from a cellphone .
Boom !
The whole @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
What finally forced Albarracín to stop after 15 years of smuggling and selling contraband gas was the supply problem .
`` For the past year or so there has been no Venezuelan gasoline , '' he says .
Albarracín and about 1,300 other smugglers on the Colombian side of the border were thrown out of work while long lines began forming at the few legal gas stations still operating in Cúcuta .
The Colombian government responded by forming a business cooperative to help former smugglers find legal work .
The co-op provides @ @ @ @ @ @ @ businesses , like motorcycle repair shops and bakeries .
Others have been hired to work at a newly opened chain of filling stations , run by the co-op , that have sprung up along the border .
As he pumps diesel into a tractor trailer at one of the stations , rookie employee Victor Estupiñán recalls that when he smuggled gas , he was once arrested and had to pay a large fine .
Though he now earns less money , he says : `` I prefer this job because I 'm no @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Some Colombian motorists along the border grumble that they must now pay about twice as much for Colombian gas at service stations than they did on street corners .
But taxi driver Levi Tarazona points out that contraband fuel was sometimes adulterated and caused engine damage .
He claims that Colombian gas is cleaner .
Meanwhile , the collapse of gas smuggling has been a boon for filling stations .
A few years ago , there were only four in Cúcuta , a city of nearly a million people .
Now , there @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bizarre twist , Albarracín , the former smuggler , claims that contraband is starting to flow in the opposite direction , with people taking Colombian gas into Venezuela .
He says : `` It 's been going on for the past two or three months because gasoline is so hard to find in Venezuela . ''

Venezuela's Fuel Shortage Upends Longtime Colombian Border Gas Smuggling Trade
Enlarge this image toggle caption Ivan Valencia/Bloomberg via Getty Images Ivan Valencia/Bloomberg via Getty Images
Venezuela's worst economic meltdown in history has had a huge impact on neighboring Colombia, where hospitals, schools and welfare agencies are dealing with 2 million Venezuelan refugees. But the crisis has produced at least one silver lining for Colombia: the curtailing of gasoline smuggling.
For decades, Colombian motorists along the border eschewed gas stations to fill their tanks with cheaper, smuggled Venezuelan fuel. The practice gave rise to powerful smuggling mafias while local governments lost out on gasoline taxes.
Now, however, Venezuela's oil industry has collapsed. Many of its refineries have shut down while the government's lack of cash to import gasoline, combined with U.S. sanctions targeting the oil sector, have led to chronic fuel shortages. That means Venezuelans now pay as much as $10 a gallon on the black market and that there's no more cheap fuel left to resell in Colombia.
"The business has totally died," says José López, a former fuel smuggler in the Colombian border city of Cúcuta who now runs a car wash.
Gasoline smuggling here took off in the 1970s when the Arab oil embargo led to a spike in gas prices in much of the world, including Colombia. By contrast, Venezuela, which is home to the world's largest oil reserves, kept prices artificially low with heavy government subsidies. Filling a car tank cost pennies.
As a result, smugglers made huge profits by reselling gas in Colombia. Often, they would fill up cars and trucks at Venezuelan service stations then drive to Colombia and siphon the fuel into storage tanks. Smugglers also used dozens of clandestine trails, hauling fuel across the border on motorcycles, bicycles, mules and handcarts. Then, like moonshiners, they would sell it out of plastic jugs from garages, in back alleys and along highways.
Contraband gas provided jobs to poor families on both sides of the border. But it also swelled the coffers of Colombian guerrillas and drug-trafficking groups that were involved in the business, says Victor Bautista, the top border official in Colombia's Norte de Santander department, which abuts Venezuela.
Smuggling gas and purchasing it is illegal. But like stopping the flow of illegal drugs, clamping down proved impossible and Colombian authorities often looked the other way, says Marco Arévalo, a former official with Colombia's Transportation Ministry.
Arévalo points out that local and state governments along the border were deprived of millions of dollars in gasoline taxes that could have gone toward building roads and schools. The business also gave Cúcuta a chaotic feel with street-corner venders perched atop containers of gas, waving funnels and hoses in the air to attract customers.
"There were hardly any gas stations left in Cúcuta because it wasn't a viable business," Arévalo says.
There were also accidents. Arévalo says that at least 20 people in and around Cúcuta were killed in explosions as they transferred gasoline into car tanks. One smuggler who barely escaped death was Álvaro Albarracín, who operated a clandestine warehouse in the city where he kept dozens of fuel containers stacked against the walls.
Enlarge this image toggle caption John Otis for NPR John Otis for NPR
"I was filling up a car tank and then, at one point, there was a spark from a cellphone. Boom! The whole place caught fire," he says.
What finally forced Albarracín to stop after 15 years of smuggling and selling contraband gas was the supply problem.
"For the past year or so there has been no Venezuelan gasoline," he says.
Albarracín and about 1,300 other smugglers on the Colombian side of the border were thrown out of work while long lines began forming at the few legal gas stations still operating in Cúcuta. The Colombian government responded by forming a business cooperative to help former smugglers find legal work.
Enlarge this image toggle caption John Otis for NPR John Otis for NPR
The co-op provides small loans to help them start small businesses, like motorcycle repair shops and bakeries. Others have been hired to work at a newly opened chain of filling stations, run by the co-op, that have sprung up along the border.
As he pumps diesel into a tractor trailer at one of the stations, rookie employee Victor Estupiñán recalls that when he smuggled gas, he was once arrested and had to pay a large fine. Though he now earns less money, he says: "I prefer this job because I'm no longer viewed as a criminal."
Some Colombian motorists along the border grumble that they must now pay about twice as much for Colombian gas at service stations than they did on street corners. But taxi driver Levi Tarazona points out that contraband fuel was sometimes adulterated and caused engine damage. He claims that Colombian gas is cleaner.
Meanwhile, the collapse of gas smuggling has been a boon for filling stations. A few years ago, there were only four in Cúcuta, a city of nearly a million people. Now, there are 39 stations.
And in a bizarre twist, Albarracín, the former smuggler, claims that contraband is starting to flow in the opposite direction, with people taking Colombian gas into Venezuela. He says: "It's been going on for the past two or three months because gasoline is so hard to find in Venezuela."


npr--2020-09-11--Amid Flood Of News, Voters Appear Locked In On Their Presidential Choices

Amid Flood Of News , Voters Appear Locked In On Their Presidential Choices The 2020 presidential campaign heads into the fall stretch with a dizzying pace of news developments threatening to upend the contest .
But NPR interviews with voters across the country around Labor Day weekend found that most are locked into their support for either President Trump or Democratic nominee Joe Biden .
The small contingent of undecided voters said they are unenthusiastic about their choices .
In a conventional presidential race , any one of the grave issues in the headlines now — the coronavirus pandemic and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ deadly threat '' ; a battered economy leaving millions of people jobless and businesses shuttered ; the debate about a vaccine ; media reports on Trump 's comments about service members ; wildfires engulfing the West — could turn the race for one candidate .
The president 's handling of the coronavirus remains the central factor in the campaign , and Democrats want to keep it that way .
More than 190,000 Americans have now died from the virus .
National polls consistently show Biden with a lead , but the contest will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hinges on many of the same places that gave Trump the edge four years ago .
NPR 's interviews found his harsh `` law and order '' rhetoric is resonating with some voters , and the fact that some unrest is happening in states that are competitive politically is causing both campaigns to ramp up attention and resources in those places .
For those deciding to back Biden , meanwhile , the vote appears to be less about enthusiasm for him , and more about getting rid of Trump .
Here is what @ @ @ @ @ @ @ several key states : The president 's support is still strong in the rural communities where he surged in 2016 .
NPR 's Scott Detrow talked to Trump backers waiting to hear the president at his rally in Latrobe , Pa. , last week .
The president won that area by 30 percentage points in 2016 , and the massive crowd that showed up for his event during the pandemic shows the deep support he still has from his loyal base .
Even one dairy farmer who acknowledged Trump 's trade policies did @ @ @ @ @ @ @ he was still all in for the president .
`` We 'll do our part .
We 'll do our part when it comes down to it , '' Mike Sever said .
Another voter affected by the virus and who remains unemployed does n't blame Trump .
`` First off , has there ever been a pandemic to take over the world like this in such a short period of time ?
I think that Trump did the best that he could , considering the circumstances , '' Amy Taylor , a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ president 's focus on more rural areas may have limited yield .
While his core voting bloc — white voters without a college degree — made up a large percentage of nonvoters in 2016 and could turn out in greater numbers this year , an analysis of census data by NPR and the Brookings Institution indicates that his base is shrinking .
Democrats try to expand map into traditionally red territory Arizona has been a solidly red state going back to the 1950s , and the last time it voted for a Democrat @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Kyrsten Sinema won a tight Senate race in 2018 , and the party sees an opportunity in 2020 .
The state has experienced an influx of retirees , but also includes more minority voters — especially Latino voters .
KJZZ 's Jimmy Jenkins talked to voters at a farmer 's market in Phoenix , including some undecided voters who were not thrilled with their choices .
Kevin Wood told him , `` I 'm an independent , but this year , it 's a clear choice .
Got ta go one way , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Biden way . ''
He cited the Democrat 's temperament as a key factor .
But the national attention on protests has Trump supporters who rallied for him at the state Capitol last weekend pledging to stick with him .
`` He 's my law-and-order president .
That 's who he is .
And the other ones are for chaos and no order , '' Ralph Ruggiero , who was carrying a `` Liberty or Death '' sign , told Jenkins .
Texas is another reliably red state that some Democrats argue should @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , with shifting demographics changing the electorate there .
KTEP 's Angela Kocherga visited El Paso , one of Texas ' few strongholds for Democrats .
Party members believe one factor that could make places like Texas competitive is their effort to pump up youth turnout — a bloc that tends to have the lowest turnout rate , but one that leans Democratic .
But Kocherga found younger voters in El Paso were split on whether their vote would even matter — a sign the party still has work to do .
David @ @ @ @ @ @ @ repelled by both candidates .
`` It kind of makes me sick to my stomach just knowing that I put one of these people in office , '' he told Kocherga .
`` The best thing for me is just to not vote . ''
Amanda Kilcrease , a 20-year-old college student , said , `` It just feels like if Trump wins again , like , then — and I did n't vote , I would have guilt with that , too , that I did n't take a small action that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ But I 'm also not happy with the outcome of Biden .
I just want to stress that . ''
The killing of George Floyd by Minneapolis police in May triggered a national movement calling for racial justice .
But the Trump campaign seized on the unrest — sometimes violent in several urban areas around the country — to argue that Democrats were soft on crime and that if Biden won , the threat against law enforcement would grow and spread to the suburbs .
The theme was prevalent throughout the Republican convention @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Kenosha , Wis. , following the police shooting of Jacob Blake , a Black man paralyzed after being shot multiple times in the back in late August .
The incident put the issue that the president has been focused on front and center in a state Trump won by less than 23,000 votes in 2016 .
Both the president and Biden visited Wisconsin last week — with very different messages .
Trump lauded local law enforcement and highlighted local businesses damaged by riots .
Biden met with Blake 's family and cited the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ him for further polarizing the country at a time when race relations are fragile .
Maayan Silver , from WUWM , talked to voters in the area , many of whom suggested the back-and-forth over the issue was simply reinforcing their positions on the two candidates .
Jan Kaminski , one voter who did n't say which way she was planning to vote , said she watched the conventions and seemed more swayed by the GOP message .
`` Well , there is something to be said when they say all these major @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are run by Democrats .
I did n't know that , '' Kaminski told Silver .
`` You know , you have to ... look what they did in Kenosha when the National Guard came in and enough backup came .
You know , the rioting and all that stopped . ''
But one former supporter of Trump 's who expressed concerns about looting and unrest in Wisconsin did tell Silver she could n't back him again .
`` He just wants people to riot .
He instills riots and discord , '' @ @ @ @ @ @ @ an area north of Milwaukee .
Like other key swing states , the effort by the Trump campaign to push up votes from rural parts of Wisconsin could help him again .
But Democrats vow not to have a repeat of 2016 , when turnout dropped in urban areas like Milwaukee and Madison , and Hillary Clinton 's campaign appeared not to pay enough attention to the state .
Additionally , activists seeing an uptick in people coming out for demonstrations vow that a focus on racial justice issues is motivating people not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Lauren Cross , involved in the Kenosha protests , told Silver about those on the streets : `` I think , like , all the people out here are voting against Trump in some capacity . ''
Two Midwestern states give the campaigns reasons for hope Both the president and Biden have visited Michigan in recent days , and the state was part of the `` blue wall '' of three Midwest states that flipped and supported Trump , handing him the White House in 2016 .
WKAR 's Abigail Censky visited @ @ @ @ @ @ @ competitive this time around , and where there appears to be a split .
Its congressional district backed Trump in 2016 , but elected a Democrat , Elissa Slotkin , to Congress in 2018 .
Todd Gardner noted that there still is a lot of support for Trump , but he 's prepared to back `` anybody but Donald Trump . ''
He 's attracted to Biden 's pitch to return to a high level of civil discourse .
`` My hope is that the tone of the presidency can return to what @ @ @ @ @ @ @ told Censky .
`` I think this has not been a normal four years of a president , and I really would like to get back to people not shouting at each other .
I know we live in a divided nation , but it just seems he 's made it more divided than it has to be . ''
Minnesota voted for Clinton in 2016 , but a combination of the reaction to the looting in Minneapolis and broader local economic issues are boosting GOP prospects in the state .
Minnesota Public @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , a registered Democrat in Aitken , a rural town in the northern part of the state .
She declined to give her last name because of concerns about the impact on her business , but she said she is disillusioned by Democrats now , pointing to unrest in Minneapolis earlier this year and in other cities , and said even though she backed Clinton four years ago , she can not get behind Biden .
`` The Republican Party is kind of speaking to my heart more than the Democrats so I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ vote Trump this time , '' Gretchen said .
While Gretchen was among a small group of voters who were moving to a new party in 2020 , many voters that NPR and station reporters talked to had strong feelings about why they were sticking with their preferred candidate .
Sheri Holman , a Michigan union member who is among a bloc in the state who abandoned Democrats for Trump in 2016 , is sticking with the president , even though she admits she does n't like him personally .
`` He 's @ @ @ @ @ @ @ strong backbone , '' she said .
But she is n't convinced that after Election Day the country will move past the intense partisan split .
`` I 'm sure there 'll be riots no matter which way it goes , '' she says .
NPR 's Scott Detrow , KJZZ 's Jimmy Jenkins , KTEP 's Angela Kocherga , WUWM 's Maayan Silver , WKAR 's Abigail Censky and MPR 's Mark Zdechlik contributed to this report .

Amid Flood Of News, Voters Appear Locked In On Their Presidential Choices
Enlarge this image toggle caption Michael Swensen for NPR Michael Swensen for NPR
The 2020 presidential campaign heads into the fall stretch with a dizzying pace of news developments threatening to upend the contest. But NPR interviews with voters across the country around Labor Day weekend found that most are locked into their support for either President Trump or Democratic nominee Joe Biden. The small contingent of undecided voters said they are unenthusiastic about their choices.
In a conventional presidential race, any one of the grave issues in the headlines now — the coronavirus pandemic and Trump's own words about the "deadly threat"; a battered economy leaving millions of people jobless and businesses shuttered; the debate about a vaccine; media reports on Trump's comments about service members; wildfires engulfing the West — could turn the race for one candidate.
The president's handling of the coronavirus remains the central factor in the campaign, and Democrats want to keep it that way. More than 190,000 Americans have now died from the virus.
National polls consistently show Biden with a lead, but the contest will come down to an electoral map that hinges on many of the same places that gave Trump the edge four years ago.
NPR's interviews found his harsh "law and order" rhetoric is resonating with some voters, and the fact that some unrest is happening in states that are competitive politically is causing both campaigns to ramp up attention and resources in those places. For those deciding to back Biden, meanwhile, the vote appears to be less about enthusiasm for him and more about getting rid of Trump.
Here is what NPR learned from conversations with voters in several key states:
Trump retains loyal support in battleground states' rural areas
Elections Trump Energizes Voters At Rally In Pennsylvania Trump Energizes Voters At Rally In Pennsylvania Listen · 6:13 6:13
The president's support is still strong in the rural communities where he surged in 2016.
NPR's Scott Detrow talked to Trump backers waiting to hear the president at his rally in Latrobe, Pa., last week. The president won that area by 30 percentage points in 2016, and the massive crowd that showed up for his event during the pandemic shows the deep support he still has from his loyal base.
Even one dairy farmer who acknowledged that Trump's trade policies didn't always benefit him personally told Detrow he was still all in for the president.
"We'll do our part. We'll do our part when it comes down to it," Mike Sever said.
Another voter affected by the virus and who remains unemployed doesn't blame Trump.
"First off, has there ever been a pandemic to take over the world like this in such a short period of time? I think that Trump did the best that he could, considering the circumstances," Amy Taylor, a fitness instructor, told Detrow.
(These interviews with voters were conducted before the news broke that Trump told author Bob Woodward in February that the virus was "deadly stuff" and that in March, he said he deliberately "wanted to play it down" to avoid a panic.)
The president's focus on more rural areas may have limited yield. While his core voting bloc — white voters without a college degree — made up a large percentage of nonvoters in 2016 and could turn out in greater numbers this year, an analysis of census data by NPR and the Brookings Institution indicates that his base is shrinking.
Democrats try to expand map into traditionally red territory
toggle caption Jimmy Jenkins/KJZZ
Arizona has been a solidly red state going back to the 1950s, and the last time it voted for a Democrat for president was 1996.
But Democrat Kyrsten Sinema won a tight Senate race in 2018, and the party sees an opportunity in 2020. The state has experienced an influx of retirees, but also includes more minority voters — especially Latino voters.
KJZZ's Jimmy Jenkins talked to voters at a farmer's market in Phoenix, where some undecided voters said they were not thrilled with their choices.
Elections What Arizona Voters Think Of The Presidential Candidates What Arizona Voters Think Of The Presidential Candidates Listen · 3:46 3:46
Kevin Wood told him, "I'm an independent, but this year, it's a clear choice. Gotta go one way, so we're gonna go the Biden way." He cited the Democrat's temperament as a key factor.
But the national attention on protests has Trump supporters who rallied for him at the state Capitol last weekend pledging to stick with him.
"He's my law-and-order president. That's who he is. And the other ones are for chaos and no order," Ralph Ruggiero, who was carrying a "Liberty or Death" sign, told Jenkins.
Young Texas voters not excited about either candidate
toggle caption Angela Kocherga/KTEP
Texas is another reliably red state that some Democrats argue should be considered a swing state this year, with shifting demographics changing the electorate there.
KTEP's Angela Kocherga visited El Paso, one of Texas' few strongholds for Democrats.
Party members believe one factor that could make places like Texas competitive is their effort to pump up youth turnout — a bloc that tends to have the lowest turnout rate, but one that leans Democratic.
But Kocherga found younger voters in El Paso were split on whether their vote would even matter — a sign the party still has work to do.
David Ashcroft, a 21-year-old waiter, appeared repelled by both candidates. "It kind of makes me sick to my stomach just knowing that I put one of these people in office," he told Kocherga. "The best thing for me is just to not vote."
Elections What's On The Minds Of Voters In El Paso, Texas What's On The Minds Of Voters In El Paso, Texas Listen · 4:20 4:20
Amanda Kilcrease, a 20-year-old college student, said, "It just feels like if Trump wins again, like, then — and I didn't vote, I would have guilt with that, too, that I didn't take a small action that could have had an opposite outcome. But I'm also not happy with the outcome of Biden. I just want to stress that."
A "law and order" message in crucial Wisconsin
The killing of George Floyd by Minneapolis police in May triggered a national movement calling for racial justice. But the Trump campaign seized on the unrest — sometimes violent in several urban areas across the country — to argue that Democrats were soft on crime and that if Biden won, the threat against law enforcement would grow and spread to the suburbs.
The theme was prevalent throughout the Republican convention, with a focus on protests in Kenosha, Wis., following the police shooting of Jacob Blake, a Black man paralyzed after being shot multiple times in the back in late August.
The incident put the issue that the president has been focused on front and center in a state Trump won by less than 23,000 votes in 2016. Both the president and Biden visited Wisconsin last week — with very different messages. Trump lauded local law enforcement and highlighted local businesses damaged by riots. Biden met with Blake's family and called the president's rhetoric divisive, blaming him for further polarizing the country at a time when race relations are fragile.
Enlarge this image toggle caption Morry Gash/AP Morry Gash/AP
Maayan Silver, from WUWM, talked to voters in the area, many of whom suggested the back-and-forth over the issue was simply reinforcing their positions on the two candidates.
Jan Kaminski, one voter who didn't say which way she was planning to vote, said she watched the conventions and seemed more swayed by the GOP message.
"Well, there is something to be said when they say all these major — these cities that are having problems are run by Democrats. I didn't know that," Kaminski told Silver. "You know, you have to ... look what they did in Kenosha when the National Guard came in and enough backup came. You know, the rioting and all that stopped."
But one former supporter of Trump's who expressed concerns about looting and unrest in Wisconsin did tell Silver she couldn't back him again.
Elections How Are Voters Responding To Trump's Law-And-Order Message? How Are Voters Responding To Trump's Law-And-Order Message? Listen · 4:42 4:42
"He just wants people to riot. He instills riots and discord," said Karen Cayman, who lives in an area north of Milwaukee.
Like other key swing states, the effort by the Trump campaign to push up votes from rural parts of Wisconsin could help him again. But Democrats vow not to have a repeat of 2016, when turnout dropped in urban areas like Milwaukee and Madison, and Hillary Clinton's campaign appeared not to pay enough attention to the state. Additionally, activists — seeing an uptick in people coming out for demonstrations — vow that a focus on racial justice issues is motivating people not just to protest, but to vote.
Lauren Cross, involved in the Kenosha protests, told Silver about those on the streets: "I think, like, all the people out here are voting against Trump in some capacity."
Two Midwestern states give the campaigns reasons for hope
Elections Michigan Swing Town Voters Share Their Thoughts On The Election Michigan Swing Town Voters Share Their Thoughts On The Election Listen · 3:08 3:08
Both the president and Biden have visited Michigan in recent days, and the state was part of the "blue wall" of three Midwest states that flipped and supported Trump, handing him the White House in 2016.
WKAR's Abigail Censky visited one town, Williamston, that is competitive this time around and where there appears to be a split. Its congressional district backed Trump in 2016 but elected a Democrat, Elissa Slotkin, to Congress in 2018.
Todd Gardner said that there still is a lot of support for Trump, but that he's prepared to back "anybody but Donald Trump."
He's attracted to Biden's pitch to return to a high level of civil discourse.
"My hope is that the tone of the presidency can return to what used to be normal," he told Censky. "I think this has not been a normal four years of a president, and I really would like to get back to people not shouting at each other. I know we live in a divided nation, but it just seems he's made it more divided than it has to be."
Enlarge this image toggle caption Mark Zdechlik/MPR News Mark Zdechlik/MPR News
Minnesota voted for Clinton in 2016, but a combination of the reaction to the looting in Minneapolis and broader local economic issues are boosting GOP prospects in the state.
Minnesota Public Radio's Mark Zdechlik talked to Gretchen, a registered Democrat in Aitken, a rural town in the northern part of the state. She declined to give her last name because of concerns about the impact on her business, but she said she is disillusioned by Democrats now, pointing to unrest in Minneapolis earlier this year and in other cities, and said even though she backed Clinton four years ago, she cannot get behind Biden.
"The Republican Party is kind of speaking to my heart more than the Democrats so I think I'm going to have to vote Trump this time," Gretchen said.
While Gretchen was among a small group of voters who were moving to a new party in 2020, many voters whom NPR and station reporters talked to had strong feelings about why they were sticking with their preferred candidate.
Sheri Holman, a Michigan union member who is among a bloc in the state who abandoned Democrats for Trump in 2016, is sticking with the president, even though she admits she doesn't like him personally.
"He's a strong — he's got a strong backbone," she said.
But she isn't convinced that after Election Day the country will move past the intense partisan split.
"I'm sure there'll be riots no matter which way it goes," she says.
NPR's Scott Detrow, KJZZ's Jimmy Jenkins, KTEP's Angela Kocherga, WUWM's Maayan Silver, WKAR's Abigail Censky and MPR's Mark Zdechlik contributed to this report.


npr--2020-09-11--Why Firefighting Alone Won't Stop Western Mega-Fires

It 's become a near-annual occurrence .
A massive wildfire forces thousands of people to flee their homes .
Exhausted firefighters warn of its speed and intensity .
Smoke smothers cities and states hundreds of miles away .
The yearly eruption of hundreds of wildfires across the West is no longer surprising .
What 's surprising is `` our society 's ability to continue to tolerate '' lives lost and billions of dollars in damages and firefighting costs , year after year , says Tom Harbour , the former director of fire and aviation at the U.S. Forest Service .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ know of ways to reduce the risk .
The wave of fires that erupted this week on the West Coast , like previous record-breaking blazes , are further validation of something forest ecologists and fire veterans have been saying for years : that no amount of firefighting resources will avert the next big wildfire .
Nine of the top 10 largest wildfires in California history have occurred in the last decade despite massive investments in new technology and equipment .
`` We ca n't 'one more engine , one more hand crew ' @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Harbour says .
`` We 've got ourselves into a big problem , and it 's taken some time .
It 's going to take some time , energy and effort to get our way out . ''
The nation needs to rethink its relationship with wildfire , ecologists and firefighters say .
Instead of treating it as a threat to be swiftly extinguished , communities need to learn to live with fire , as people have before .
Increasingly , communities and homeowners are realizing that on their own .
Flammable roofs @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Homeowners are clearing vegetation around their property to create buffers from flames .
Prescribed fire is becoming more common .
Fire experts warn that billions of dollars in federal , state and local investments will be needed to reduce the risk of wildfire substantially in the West .
But the COVID-19 pandemic , coupled with the soaring costs of fire suppression , means that money is in short supply .
`` Nationally , we 're faced with : What can we do to scale this up so that communities do n't have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ? ''
says Jennifer Balch , fire scientist at the University of Colorado Boulder .
`` Because every homeowner expects firefighters to show up when there 's a fire than threatens their home , but they 're maxed out .
There 's just no way they 're going to be able to fight every fire . ''
The truce between people and fire is being negotiated under challenging conditions .
A century of suppression has left Western forests overgrown .
Hotter temperatures stoked by climate change are drying out the vegetation and priming @ @ @ @ @ @ @ people continue to move to forested areas , upping the stakes and putting more strain on already-stressed landscapes .
But when a fire sweeps into a community , it can be a wake-up call to reduce future risks .
In 2003 , the Old Fire burned more than 90,000 acres in Big Bear , a heavily forested town in the Southern California mountains .
`` There were [ 300 ] or 400 houses that were lost , '' says Jeff Willis , fire chief with the Big Bear Fire Department .
`` It @ @ @ @ @ @ @ evacuated the entire community for about a week period .
So that was a big moment of recognition is what I would say . ''
Afterward , the fire department took stock of the region 's vulnerabilities .
The surrounding forests were dense and overgrown , potentially providing fuel for bigger fires .
Many homes , built decades ago , had wood roofs that could ignite from embers blown far ahead of a fire .
The fire department passed a sweeping `` community wildfire protection plan . ''
It inspected properties and enforced @ @ @ @ @ @ @ around homes .
It installed evacuation signs around town to guide residents in an emergency .
Over almost a decade , more than 1,000 wood roofs were replaced with fire-resistant materials , thanks to a grant program that offset the cost for homeowners .
The fire department thinned out forests adjacent to residential areas , working alongside the U.S. Forest Service , which manages national forest land in the region .
`` That was a heck of an effort , '' Willis says .
`` Gradually over time , though it was initially @ @ @ @ @ @ @ strides . ''
Big Bear was one of the first California communities to launch such a comprehensive effort .
While it does n't guarantee homes and buildings will survive an extreme fire , it boosts their chances .
The problem has been maintaining and expanding the safeguards .
Vegetation requires annual inspections and trimming .
But Willis says the budget has n't kept up .
`` The community risk reduction and fire prevention , all of that takes a second seat to the main mission , which is responding to emergency incidents , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ would need , and I know I 'm not alone from a fire chief 's perspective , we would need to double our budget . ''
Big Bear Fire Department has largely relied on state and federal grants , totaling more than $ 5 million since its prevention plan began .
But with more communities vying for those dollars , they 're harder to get .
This year , the department was turned down for three out of four grants for a curbside vegetation chipping program , which helps homeowners break down the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ also voted down a local tax measure in March that would have provided new funding .
Now , the fire department is looking at cutting staff .
`` Unfortunately , there 's a lot more that we should do , '' Willis says .
`` We are and were and still remain a community at risk . ''
Funding has long been a problem for efforts to reduce wildfire risk .
In 2015 , a report published by the Forest Service warned : `` As more and more of the agency 's resources @ @ @ @ @ @ @ firefighters , aircraft , and other assets necessary to protect lives , property , and natural resources from catastrophic wildfires , fewer and fewer funds and resources are available to support other agency work — including the very programs and restoration projects that reduce the fire threat . ''
Congress took a step to address that in 2018 , passing a `` fire funding fix '' that allows the Forest Service to tap federal emergency disaster funds when suppression costs exceeded its budget .
The `` fix '' goes into effect this year @ @ @ @ @ @ @ skeptical that it alone will address the underlying problems .
Nearly half of the agency 's $ 5.14 billion budget is still earmarked for fire suppression .
`` There 's definitely not enough economic support , '' says Crystal Kolden , a fire scientist at the University of California , Merced .
`` How we have always addressed natural hazards as a nation is that we have invested in reducing risk with federal tax dollars because natural hazard reduction is a social good . ''
Last month , Sen. Dianne Feinstein , D-Calif. @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , proposed a bipartisan bill to clear roadblocks for vegetation removal projects .
Critics say it would undermine existing environmental protections .
Earlier this year , California announced a new state-federal effort to reduce wildfire risks .
The goal is to treat 1 million acres of forest and wildland annually with prescribed fires and forest thinning projects .
Both initiatives address overgrown forests .
But fire ecologists say it 's going to take a wider range of solutions to protect communities .
What works in one place might not in another .
`` @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a single bullet solution , '' Kolden says .
`` And the reality is that fire is complex .
All natural hazards are complex .
And there is no single silver bullet solution . ''
California lawmakers have made several unsuccessful attempts to set aside funding for some other solutions .
Earlier this year , $ 1 billion was canceled for a house retrofit fund due to the state 's pandemic-related budget shortfall .
State lawmakers tried last month to pass $ 3 billion for both emergency fire response and community preparedness , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ action , the drivers of extreme fire are only going to increase with time .
People continue to move into forested areas .
The climate continues to warm .
And , even with adequate funding , community-based solutions will take decades to implement .
`` As bad as it is , it 's going to get worse , '' Harbour says .
`` And it 's going to get worse for another decade or two , even with us adopting some of these mitigations . ''

Why Firefighting Alone Won't Stop Western Mega-Fires
Enlarge this image toggle caption Josh Edelson/AFP via Getty Images Josh Edelson/AFP via Getty Images
It's become a near-annual occurrence. A massive wildfire forces thousands of people to flee their homes. Exhausted firefighters warn of its speed and intensity. Smoke smothers cities and states hundreds of miles away.
The yearly eruption of hundreds of wildfires across the West is no longer surprising. What's surprising is "our society's ability to continue to tolerate" lives lost and billions of dollars in damages and firefighting costs, year after year, says Tom Harbour, the former director of fire and aviation at the U.S. Forest Service.
Especially, he says, when we know of ways to reduce the risk.
The wave of fires that erupted this week on the West Coast, like previous record-breaking blazes, are further validation of something forest ecologists and fire veterans have been saying for years: that no amount of firefighting resources will avert the next big wildfire. Nine of the top 10 largest wildfires in California history have occurred in the last decade despite massive investments in new technology and equipment.
"We can't 'one more engine, one more hand crew' our way out of this," Harbour says. "We've got ourselves into a big problem, and it's taken some time. It's going to take some time, energy and effort to get our way out."
The nation needs to rethink its relationship with wildfire, ecologists and firefighters say. Instead of treating it as a threat to be swiftly extinguished, communities need to learn to live with fire, as people have before.
Increasingly, communities and homeowners are realizing that on their own. Flammable roofs are being replaced with more fire-resistant ones. Homeowners are clearing vegetation around their property to create buffers from flames. Prescribed fire is becoming more common.
Fire experts warn that billions of dollars in federal, state and local investments will be needed to reduce the risk of wildfire substantially in the West. But the COVID-19 pandemic, coupled with the soaring costs of fire suppression, means that money is in short supply.
"Nationally, we're faced with: What can we do to scale this up so that communities don't have to struggle with it on their own?" says Jennifer Balch, fire scientist at the University of Colorado Boulder. "Because every homeowner expects firefighters to show up when there's a fire than threatens their home, but they're maxed out. There's just no way they're going to be able to fight every fire."
A wake-up call
The truce between people and fire is being negotiated under challenging conditions. A century of suppression has left Western forests overgrown. Hotter temperatures stoked by climate change are drying out the vegetation and priming it to burn. And millions of people continue to move to forested areas, upping the stakes and putting more strain on already-stressed landscapes.
Enlarge this image toggle caption David McNew/Getty Images David McNew/Getty Images
But when a fire sweeps into a community, it can be a wake-up call to reduce future risks. In 2003, the Old Fire burned more than 90,000 acres in Big Bear, a heavily forested town in the Southern California mountains.
"There were [300] or 400 houses that were lost," says Jeff Willis, fire chief with the Big Bear Fire Department. "It was also during that fire that we evacuated the entire community for about a week period. So that was a big moment of recognition is what I would say."
Afterward, the fire department took stock of the region's vulnerabilities. The surrounding forests were dense and overgrown, potentially providing fuel for bigger fires. Many homes, built decades ago, had wood roofs that could ignite from embers blown far ahead of a fire.
The fire department passed a sweeping "community wildfire protection plan." It inspected properties and enforced requirements to trim dry brush and trees around homes. It installed evacuation signs around town to guide residents in an emergency.
As bad as it is, it's going to get worse.
Over almost a decade, more than 1,000 wood roofs were replaced with fire-resistant materials, thanks to a grant program that offset the cost for homeowners. The fire department thinned out forests adjacent to residential areas, working alongside the U.S. Forest Service, which manages national forest land in the region.
"That was a heck of an effort," Willis says. "Gradually over time, though it was initially controversial, I think we made tremendous strides."
Big Bear was one of the first California communities to launch such a comprehensive effort. While it doesn't guarantee homes and buildings will survive an extreme fire, it boosts their chances. The problem has been maintaining and expanding the safeguards.
Vegetation requires annual inspections and trimming. But Willis says the budget hasn't kept up.
"The community risk reduction and fire prevention, all of that takes a second seat to the main mission, which is responding to emergency incidents," he says. "What I would need, and I know I'm not alone from a fire chief's perspective, we would need to double our budget."
Big Bear Fire Department has largely relied on state and federal grants, totaling more than $5 million since its prevention plan began. But with more communities vying for those dollars, they're harder to get. This year, the department was turned down for three out of four grants for a curbside vegetation chipping program, which helps homeowners break down the brush on their property.
The community also voted down a local tax measure in March that would have provided new funding. Now, the fire department is looking at cutting staff. "Unfortunately, there's a lot more that we should do," Willis says. "We are and were and still remain a community at risk."
Reducing risk
Funding has long been a problem for efforts to reduce wildfire risk.
In 2015, a report published by the Forest Service warned: "As more and more of the agency's resources are spent each year to provide the firefighters, aircraft, and other assets necessary to protect lives, property, and natural resources from catastrophic wildfires, fewer and fewer funds and resources are available to support other agency work — including the very programs and restoration projects that reduce the fire threat."
Congress took a step to address that in 2018, passing a "fire funding fix" that allows the Forest Service to tap federal emergency disaster funds when suppression costs exceeded its budget. The "fix" goes into effect this year, but fire veterans and ecologists are skeptical that it alone will address the underlying problems.
Enlarge this image toggle caption Josh Edelson/AFP via Getty Images Josh Edelson/AFP via Getty Images
Nearly half of the agency's $5.14 billion budget is still earmarked for fire suppression.
"There's definitely not enough economic support," says Crystal Kolden, a fire scientist at the University of California, Merced. "How we have always addressed natural hazards as a nation is that we have invested in reducing risk with federal tax dollars because natural hazard reduction is a social good."
Last month, Sens. Dianne Feinstein, D-Calif., and Steve Daines, R-Mont., proposed a bipartisan bill to clear roadblocks for vegetation removal projects. Critics say it would undermine existing environmental protections.
Earlier this year, California announced a new state-federal effort to reduce wildfire risks. The goal is to treat 1 million acres of forest and wildland annually with prescribed fires and forest thinning projects.
Both initiatives address overgrown forests. But fire ecologists say it's going to take a wider range of solutions to protect communities. What works in one place might not in another.
"What people tend to look for is a single bullet solution," Kolden says. "And the reality is that fire is complex. All natural hazards are complex. And there is no single silver bullet solution."
California lawmakers have made several unsuccessful attempts to set aside funding for some other solutions. Earlier this year, $1 billion was canceled for a house retrofit fund due to the state's pandemic-related budget shortfall. State lawmakers tried last month to pass $3 billion for both emergency fire response and community preparedness, but the legislative session ended.
Without action, the drivers of extreme fire are only going to increase with time. People continue to move into forested areas. The climate continues to warm. And, even with adequate funding, community-based solutions will take decades to implement.
"As bad as it is, it's going to get worse," Harbour says. "And it's going to get worse for another decade or two, even with us adopting some of these mitigations."