npr--2020-08-14--Colleges That Keep Small Isolated Towns Vibrant Now Pose Public Health Threat

Colleges That Keep Small Isolated Towns Vibrant Now Pose Public Health Threat There 's a lot riding on a kickoff set for 6 p.m. Saturday , Sept. 12 .
The Sterling College Warriors are scheduled to take on the McPherson College Bulldogs at home .
If that familiar thud of shoe against football and cheer from the stands does n't happen , the college that keeps the central Kansas town 's economy humming , that gives it cultural vitality , and that separates Sterling from the hollowing out that defines so many other small Midwestern towns , might not survive @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , could die and doom the town that takes such pride in the football squad and embraces the student body like family .
`` If COVID defeats the athletic season this year , it will probably defeat a lot of small colleges , '' said Jeb Miller , a non-traditional senior at Sterling College .
`` And , as a result , harm a lot of small towns .
Badly . ''
Hundreds of small colleges dotting the country rely on students paying tens of thousands of dollars a year in exchange for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ experience .
Many of those colleges hung on year-to-year even before the pandemic .
Now COVID-19 threatens to cut off the oxygen sustaining these schools , and the sports programs that drive enrollment .
But the very thing small colleges need to stay afloat — students coming in , spending money , playing sports — also poses a major risk to relatively isolated little towns that , so far , have dodged major coronavirus outbreaks .
Only about 2,200 people live in Sterling out on the flat , flat plains of south-central Kansas @ @ @ @ @ @ @ almost idyllic downtown .
New office buildings .
Two good coffee shops .
A nice grocery store , a bowling alley , you name it .
Sterling has good schools , competitive sports teams .
Locals say school plays , games and concerts draw big crowds .
Without the college , the money , diversity and energy that defines life in Sterling could evaporate quickly .
`` There is just so much overlap , '' said Kyler Comley , a Sterling College senior who 's lived in the town all his life .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ The college supports the community .
You know , you just see how everything 's intertwined and how people are just so overly giving and involved . ''
Every student attending Sterling College gets paired with a family in town .
Those families speak endearingly about their adopted scholars .
The students left in March .
Most have n't come back .
Like many people here , Sterling criminal justice professor Mark Tremaine said that starting classes up again in person this month is make or break for Sterling College .
`` The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to get students back to campus .
If we 're going to survive , '' he said .
`` We have to accept whatever the risks are and do it . ''
And that 's the plan .
Sterling does n't have much of a choice .
`` We have committed to open up in the fall , '' Sterling College President Scott Rich said .
`` With face to face classes , face-to-face coursework , dorms and activities and full swing .
But we 're committed to doing it safely . ''
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ coming back to the dorms , test them liberally , and isolate those who come down sick in local hotels .
Rich said the freshman class looks strong , with about 200 new students .
But he is desperately trying to woo 50 or so upperclassmen who have n't signed on this year .
The school needs them because , like many other small institutions , Sterling College scrapes by from year to year .
`` We 're always dependent upon enrollment , always dependent upon that next year , always dependent upon @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
`` We have to get students to come back . ''
Other small-town schools across the country , and the communities tied to their fate , face the same existential crisis .
`` Some of the people I know are looking at hundreds of colleges going out of business within the next several years , if this pandemic continues and if the economic devastation associated with it continues , '' said Scott Carlson with the Chronicle of Higher Education .
Small liberal arts colleges have been shaky for years .
Enrollments have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Many schools have piled on debt in a building boom fueled by competition for students .
Most offer courses online , but online classes do n't pay the bills .
Small schools survive only by providing an expensive , in-person college experience .
And Carlson said the pandemic shreds that business model , and threatens to trigger the higher education equivalent of a mass extinction .
`` It 's kind of sad , '' he said .
`` These colleges are unique , little entities all on their own , and each one @ @ @ @ @ @ @ higher education . ''
Sterling College , for instance , leans heavily on a particular interpretation of Christianity .
Guarding the front door of the classic , old limestone building that anchors campus is a statue of Christ — not being tortured on the cross , but humbly washing the feet of a disciple .
`` Servant leadership , '' as anyone here will tell you , guides the campus ethic .
But football keeps the lights on here .
`` We do have a good football team , '' said Sterling 's @ @ @ @ @ @ @ They 've been fairly successful the last dozen years and been to the national playoffs , won the conference championship . ''
The team helps bring the students together , but more importantly , it drives enrollment .
`` With a football team number of about 125 to 135 student-athletes , quite a bit of our student body is involved in that sport , '' Downing said .
That 's an understatement .
There are only about 500 students on campus in a given year , one in four is on the football @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sports .
The chance to play college sports is a major selling point for schools like Sterling .
It drives enrollment .
But in a pandemic , sports can be vectors for disease .
And Jed Miller , who 's finishing his degree at Sterling online next year , said that 's another vulnerability .
`` If COVID defeats the athletic season this year , it will probably defeat a lot of small colleges , '' he said .
`` And as a result , hurt a lot of small towns ... badly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that keep some small towns vibrant now pose a particular threat to public health .
`` The college probably is the most dangerous element for us in terms of COVID , '' said Kristina Darnauer , a family practice doctor in Sterling .
`` It potentially brings back students from all over the U.S. who have variable levels of exposure . ''
Darnauer is torn .
She loves Sterling , loves the college , and fully appreciates how important it is to the school and the town that college ramp almost as normal @ @ @ @ @ @ @ patients to care for .
And she said this county , with only one hospital and no intensive care unit is not ready for a cluster of coronavirus cases .
`` If we have a huge outbreak , '' Darnauer said , `` we 're going to be out of resources very quickly . ''
Small colleges and college towns across much of the country face the same worries .
But some analysts say that a pruning of universities may prove inevitable , and that the coronavirus has only sped up the thinning @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I actually see the future of higher education , broadly speaking , as entering a new golden age , '' said Richard Price , a research fellow at the Clayton Christensen Institute .
It 's a think tank that presses for dramatic change in institutions .
Price said the pandemic may hasten the evolution to better online classes , and a public education system that 's much more accessible and equitable .
`` The traditional model , it was originally for the landed elite and it was n't for all genders , '' @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for all races .
And that is slowly getting phased out along with some older business models that are n't pivoting well . ''
Price thinks many little colleges will adapt .
Lots of them have cheated death before .
But he said there 's little doubt that this time next year the United States will have fewer colleges .
Folks in Sterling , Kansas hope and , yes , pray , that Sterling College is among the survivors .

Colleges That Keep Small Isolated Towns Vibrant Now Pose Public Health Threat
Enlarge this image toggle caption Frank Morris/KCUR Frank Morris/KCUR
There's a lot riding on a kickoff set for 6 p.m. Saturday, Sept. 12.
The Sterling College Warriors are scheduled to take on the McPherson College Bulldogs at home. If that familiar thud of shoe against football and cheer from the stands doesn't happen, the college that keeps the central Kansas town's economy humming, that gives it cultural vitality, and that separates Sterling from the hollowing out that defines so many other small Midwestern towns, might not survive.
The school, after 133 years, could die and doom the town that takes such pride in the football squad and embraces the student body like family.
"If COVID defeats the athletic season this year, it will probably defeat a lot of small colleges," said Jeb Miller, a non-traditional senior at Sterling College. "And, as a result, harm a lot of small towns. Badly."
Small town institutions
Hundreds of small colleges dotting the country rely on students paying tens of thousands of dollars a year in exchange for a distinctive, personal, high-touch college experience.
Many of those colleges hung on year-to-year even before the pandemic. Now COVID-19 threatens to cut off the oxygen sustaining these schools, and the sports programs that drive enrollment.
But the very thing small colleges need to stay afloat — students coming in, spending money, playing sports — also poses a major risk to relatively isolated little towns that, so far, have dodged major coronavirus outbreaks.
Only about 2,200 people live in Sterling out on the flat, flat plains of south-central Kansas. But this small city boasts an almost idyllic downtown. New office buildings. Two good coffee shops. A nice grocery store, a bowling alley, you name it.
Sterling has good schools, competitive sports teams. Locals say school plays, games and concerts draw big crowds. Without the college, the money, diversity and energy that defines life in Sterling could evaporate quickly.
"There is just so much overlap," said Kyler Comley, a Sterling College senior who's lived in the town all his life. "The community supports the college. The college supports the community. You know, you just see how everything's intertwined and how people are just so overly giving and involved."
Every student attending Sterling College gets paired with a family in town. Those families speak endearingly about their adopted scholars.
The students left in March. Most haven't come back. Like many people here, Sterling criminal justice professor Mark Tremaine said that starting classes up again in person this month is make or break for Sterling College.
"The bottom line is, we've got to get students back to campus. If we're going to survive," he said."We have to accept whatever the risks are and do it."
And that's the plan. Sterling doesn't have much of a choice.
Enlarge this image toggle caption Frank Morris/KCUR Frank Morris/KCUR
Staying alive
"We have committed to open up in the fall," Sterling College President Scott Rich said. "With face to face classes, face-to-face coursework, dorms and activities and full swing. But we're committed to doing it safely."
Rich said the school will quarantine students coming back to the dorms, test them liberally, and isolate those who come down sick in local hotels.
Rich said the freshman class looks strong, with about 200 new students. But he is desperately trying to woo 50 or so upperclassmen who haven't signed on this year. The school needs them because, like many other small institutions, Sterling College scrapes by from year to year.
"We're always dependent upon enrollment, always dependent upon that next year, always dependent upon persistence or retention," Rich said. "We have to get students to come back."
Other small-town schools across the country, and the communities tied to their fate, face the same existential crisis.
"Some of the people I know are looking at hundreds of colleges going out of business within the next several years, if this pandemic continues and if the economic devastation associated with it continues," said Scott Carlson with the Chronicle of Higher Education.
Small liberal arts colleges have been shaky for years. Enrollments have slumped, endowments have been drained. Many schools have piled on debt in a building boom fueled by competition for students.
Most offer courses online, but online classes don't pay the bills. Small schools survive only by providing an expensive, in-person college experience. And Carlson said the pandemic shreds that business model, and threatens to trigger the higher education equivalent of a mass extinction.
"It's kind of sad," he said. "These colleges are unique, little entities all on their own, and each one of them provides a unique spin on higher education."
Enlarge this image toggle caption Frank Morris/KCUR Frank Morris/KCUR
'Servant leadership'
Sterling College, for instance, leans heavily on a particular interpretation of Christianity. Guarding the front door of the classic, old limestone building that anchors campus is a statue of Christ — not being tortured on the cross, but humbly washing the feet of a disciple. "Servant leadership," as anyone here will tell you, guides the campus ethic.
But football keeps the lights on here.
"We do have a good football team," said Sterling's athletic director, Scott Downing. "They've been fairly successful the last dozen years and been to the national playoffs, won the conference championship."
The team helps bring the students together, but more importantly, it drives enrollment.
"With a football team number of about 125 to 135 student-athletes, quite a bit of our student body is involved in that sport," Downing said.
That's an understatement. There are only about 500 students on campus in a given year, one in four is on the football team. And there are 20 other sports.
The chance to play college sports is a major selling point for schools like Sterling. It drives enrollment. But in a pandemic, sports can be vectors for disease. And Jed Miller, who's finishing his degree at Sterling online next year, said that's another vulnerability.
"If COVID defeats the athletic season this year, it will probably defeat a lot of small colleges," he said. "And as a result, hurt a lot of small towns ... badly."
So, the same colleges that keep some small towns vibrant now pose a particular threat to public health.
"The college probably is the most dangerous element for us in terms of COVID," said Kristina Darnauer, a family practice doctor in Sterling. "It potentially brings back students from all over the U.S. who have variable levels of exposure."
Darnauer is torn. She loves Sterling, loves the college, and fully appreciates how important it is to the school and the town that college ramp almost as normal this fall.
But she's got patients to care for. And she said this county, with only one hospital and no intensive care unit is not ready for a cluster of coronavirus cases.
"If we have a huge outbreak," Darnauer said, "we're going to be out of resources very quickly."
A new era
Small colleges and college towns across much of the country face the same worries.
But some analysts say that a pruning of universities may prove inevitable, and that the coronavirus has only sped up the thinning of the higher education herd.
"I actually see the future of higher education, broadly speaking, as entering a new golden age," said Richard Price, a research fellow at the Clayton Christensen Institute. It's a think tank that presses for dramatic change in institutions.
Price said the pandemic may hasten the evolution to better online classes, and a public education system that's much more accessible and equitable.
"The traditional model, it was originally for the landed elite and it wasn't for all genders," Price said. "It wasn't for all races. And that is slowly getting phased out along with some older business models that aren't pivoting well."
Price thinks many little colleges will adapt. Lots of them have cheated death before. But he said there's little doubt that this time next year the United States will have fewer colleges.
Folks in Sterling, Kansas hope and, yes, pray, that Sterling College is among the survivors.


npr--2020-08-14--13 States Make Contact Tracing Data Public. Here's What They're Learning

When everyone who tests positive for coronavirus in your community gets a call from a public health worker asking them about their contacts , and those contacts are then asked to quarantine , that can be a powerful way to keep the virus from spreading .
But contact tracing can do more than that : At scale , the data gathered in those calls also offers vital information about where transmission is happening in a community .
That data can drive policy , and even guide individuals in assessing what 's more or less safe to go out and do @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the health departments of all U.S. states and territories three times to ask about contact tracing capacity — first in April , then again in mid-June , and most recently in late July .
The latest survey , done in collaboration with the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security , also asked states about contact tracing data : what they were gathering and what they 're making public .
The vast majority of states are gathering data from their contact tracing programs , but only 13 respondents reported that the data was posted @ @ @ @ @ @ @ reported that their contact tracing staff numbers were publicly available .
The data states are gathering includes how many contacts are reached and how quickly and where people were exposed — whether it was out in public or at home .
The few states analyzing and sharing this data represent `` a good start , '' says Crystal Watson , senior scholar at the Center for Health Security who collaborated with NPR on the survey .
`` It 's a little bit scattershot right now . ''
What 's needed , she says @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tracing data `` more , more widely and more consistently . ''
She acknowledges that states are limited by a lack of resources .
`` Health departments are really stretched to the limit right now , and it 's not a trivial thing to put together the data infrastructure to report [ this data ] publicly , '' Watson says .
Some federal guidance on `` what states should be aiming to report publicly '' could be really helpful , she says .
In the meantime , here are six places already making @ @ @ @ @ @ @ contact tracing efforts public , which illustrate how useful this information can be .
1 .
New Jersey : Nearly Half Of Cases Refuse To Provide Names Of Contacts In its COVID data dashboard , New Jersey 's contact tracing tab focuses on contact tracing capacity and staff numbers , even breaking the staff down by county .
`` The data I 'm seeing here on the number of contact tracers and the effectiveness of contact tracing is really fabulous , '' says Watson .
`` It really helps you understand how many @ @ @ @ @ @ @ being reached and notified and the timing in which that is happening . ''
The speed and completeness of contact tracing is key to its effectiveness .
If 100 % of new cases were reached within 24 hours of diagnosis , and 100 % gave a complete list of close contacts , that could curb transmission dramatically .
But in reality , public health workers do n't have that level of success .
In New Jersey , these data show that public health workers reached only 44 % of new cases within 24 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ reached refused to provide contacts .
`` I know they 're probably aiming for higher than what they 're getting right now , '' Watson says .
`` Although we 've also seen some modeling that suggests that even at those levels , contact tracing may provide a big benefit in controlling transmission . ''
2 .
Louisiana : Bars , Day Cares and Casinos — Details On Where Transmission Is Happening Louisiana does n't show a lot of raw data or graphs , but it does have a very helpful list of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ how many cases are arising from those outbreaks .
`` The data that Louisiana is providing on the COVID-19 outbreaks is unique because it breaks the data down pretty granular-ly about the [ likely ] location of transmission or exposure , '' says Watson .
This level of detail can be really valuable for policy makers who are trying to decide on targeted restrictions on gatherings or business , without shutting everything down .
While some other states put out information about transmission from `` community spread '' or `` social settings , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ about locations .
It 's useful , Watson says , to be able to see that in Louisiana , `` gyms , for example , have n't contributed [ to outbreaks ] nearly as much as bars . ''
Beyond driving policy , that kind of information can also help individuals decide where they want to go and how to keep themselves safe .
3 .
Maryland : Know When To Surge Staff Maryland has a very detailed view of how contact tracing is going in the state .
`` This shows how @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the system , how many cases and contacts are successfully reached and completed their interview , '' says Watson .
`` This helps us get a better idea of both the volume that Maryland is having to trace and the effective reach of the contact tracing programs . ''
The data show that the Maryland contact tracing workforce has been able to call around 90 % of new cases within 24 hours , except for about a week in mid-July .
Katherine Feldman , who leads contact tracing at the Maryland Department @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that `` a few weeks ago ... when case counts did rise , we identified a need to surge [ contact tracing staff ] , and we did . ''
The data also shows that — as in New Jersey — only about half of cases are providing information about their contacts .
To address the widely reported public health trust problem that may contribute to these numbers , Maryland also has photos and testimonials from people who were traced .
Todd Poorman writes : `` I am grateful for the contact tracer @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to check in , every single day I was in quarantine .
[ ... ] There is a lot of stigma out there , but the fear holds us back .
We need to move past the fear and work together . ''
D.C. was one of the first jurisdictions to share this type of data , Watson says .
The District 's COVID dashboard currently shows two types of contact tracing data : How many contacts are reached out to within 48 hours , and what percent of new cases arise from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ most new cases arise from people who are already a known contact , that can give assurance that the public health system is staying on top of transmission .
In D.C. , the data show that only 4.5 % of cases arise this way — far from the goal of 60 % .
Put another way , 95.5 % of new cases were previously unknown to the health department .
`` It really does show how much community transmission we still have , '' Watson says .
`` It 's really helpful to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bring transmission down , generally , and [ we need to ] continue to improve contact tracing efficacy . ''
Delaware offers a kind of narrative walk-through of the contact tracing process , from a new case being identified , all the way to contacts who themselves end up testing positive .
Numbers are paired with explanations of what they show and why .
`` Not all those who are reached are interviewed immediately , '' the notes read next to a figure that shows 17 % of contacts reached did not complete @ @ @ @ @ @ @ some possible reasons , including a contact being too busy to talk or hard of hearing .
It also notes that 27 % of cases and 43 % of contacts lacked phone numbers , and that `` new efforts to obtain and validate phone numbers are being explored . ''
`` I love that they have the summary statistics up front , '' Watson says , noting that the percentage of contacts reached , the average number of contacts per case , and cases with known exposure to another case are all highlighted @ @ @ @ @ @ @ exposure is 25 % , much higher in Delaware than in D.C. , which is at around 4 % .
( It 's tricky to do these kinds of comparisons , though , without standardized metrics . )
`` I also love how they step through the process and provide data and explanation at every step , '' Watson says .
`` It shows just how difficult it is to get in touch with people , but also how much work the health department is doing to carry it out . ''
North @ @ @ @ @ @ @ terms of contact tracing staff , according to NPR 's first survey of state health departments .
In the latest survey published in early August , NPR 's analysis found that the state does not currently have enough contact tracing staff to keep up with new cases .
Now , the state appears to be using contact tracing data to identify sources of exposure for new cases .
`` Their buckets are kind of broad , '' Watson says .
`` It 's interesting that community transmission is higher than close contact transmission @ @ @ @ @ @ @ generally believed to be the main driver of COVID transmission .
More specificity — like in Louisiana 's outbreak data — might help explain what these buckets mean in real life , she says .

14 States Make Contact Tracing Data Public. Here's What They're Learning
Updated 3:40 p.m. ET
Note: This story was updated to include Massachusetts, which began to share contact tracing data on its website on Wednesday.
When everyone who tests positive for coronavirus in your community gets a call from a public health worker asking them about their contacts and those contacts are then asked to quarantine, the process creates a powerful way to keep the virus from spreading.
But contact tracing can do more than that: At scale, the data gathered in those calls also offers vital information about where transmission is happening in a community. That data can drive policy and even guide individuals in assessing what's more or less safe to go out and do.
NPR has surveyed the health departments of all U.S. states and territories three times about contact tracing capacity — first in April, then again in mid-June, and most recently in late July. The latest survey, done in collaboration with the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, also asked states about contact tracing data: what they were gathering and what they're making public.
The vast majority of states are gathering data from their contact tracing programs, but only 14 respondents reported that the data was posted on a government website. Also, nine states reported that their contact tracing staff numbers were publicly available.
The data that states are gathering includes how many contacts are reached and how quickly and where people were exposed — whether it was in public or at home. The few states analyzing and sharing this data represent "a good start," says Crystal Watson, senior scholar at the Center for Health Security who collaborated with NPR on the survey. "It's a little bit scattershot right now."
What's needed, she says, is for states to share contact tracing data "more, more widely and more consistently."
She acknowledges that states are limited by a lack of resources. "Health departments are really stretched to the limit right now, and it's not a trivial thing to put together the data infrastructure to report [this data] publicly," Watson says. Some federal guidance on "what states should be aiming to report publicly" could be really helpful, she says.
In the meantime, here are six places already making some of the data gleaned from their contact tracing efforts public, thus illustrating how useful this information can be.
1. New Jersey: Nearly half of cases refuse to provide names of contacts
In its COVID-19 data dashboard, New Jersey's contact tracing tab focuses on capacity and staff numbers, even breaking the staff down by county.
"The data I'm seeing here on the number of contact tracers and the effectiveness of contact tracing is really fabulous," says Watson. "It really helps you understand how many people — contacts in particular — are being reached and notified and the timing in which that is happening."
Enlarge this image toggle caption NJ.gov/Screenshot by NPR NJ.gov/Screenshot by NPR
The speed and completeness of contact tracing is key to its effectiveness. If 100% of new cases were reached within 24 hours of diagnosis and 100% gave a complete list of close contacts, transmission could be curbed dramatically.
But in reality, public health workers don't have that level of success. In New Jersey, these data show that public health workers reached only 44% of new cases within 24 hours, and nearly half of those reached refused to provide contacts.
"I know they're probably aiming for higher than what they're getting right now," Watson says. "Although we've also seen some modeling that suggests that even at those levels, contact tracing may provide a big benefit in controlling transmission."
2. Louisiana: bars, day cares and casinos — details on where transmission is happening
Louisiana doesn't show a lot of raw data or graphs, but it does have a very helpful list of the settings where outbreaks are happening and how many cases are arising from those outbreaks.
"The data that Louisiana is providing on the COVID-19 outbreaks is unique because it breaks the data down pretty granular-ly about the [likely] location of transmission or exposure," says Watson.
Enlarge this image toggle caption LDH.LA.gov/Screenshot by NPR LDH.LA.gov/Screenshot by NPR
This level of detail can be really valuable for policymakers who are considering imposing targeted restrictions on gatherings or business, without shutting everything down. While some other states put out information about transmission from "community spread" or "social settings," Louisiana is being much more precise about locations.
It's useful, Watson says, to be able to see that in Louisiana, "gyms, for example, haven't contributed [to outbreaks] nearly as much as bars." Beyond driving policy, that kind of information can also help individuals decide where they want to go and how to keep themselves safe.
3. Maryland: Know when to surge staff
Maryland has a very detailed view of how contact tracing is going in the state.
"This shows how many cases and contacts are being entered in the system, how many cases and contacts are successfully reached and completed their interview," says Watson. "This helps us get a better idea of both the volume that Maryland is having to trace and the effective reach of the contact tracing programs."
Enlarge this image toggle caption MD.gov/Screenshot by NPR MD.gov/Screenshot by NPR
The data show that the Maryland contact tracing workforce has been able to call around 90% of new cases within 24 hours, except for about a week in mid-July. Katherine Feldman, who leads contact tracing at the Maryland Department of Health, told DCist this week that "a few weeks ago ... when case counts did rise, we identified a need to surge [contact tracing staff], and we did."
The data also shows that — as in New Jersey — only about half of cases are providing information about their contacts.
To address the widely reported public health trust problem that may contribute to these numbers, Maryland also has photos and testimonials from people who were traced. Todd Poorman writes: "I am grateful for the contact tracer from the health department who called me to check in, every single day I was in quarantine. [...] There is a lot of stigma out there, but the fear holds us back. We need to move past the fear and work together."
4. Washington D.C.: Unknown transmission exceeds known
D.C. was one of the first jurisdictions to share this type of data, Watson says. The District's COVID-19 dashboard currently shows two types of contact tracing data: how many contacts are reached out to within 48 hours and what percent of new cases arise from people who are in quarantine.
If most new cases arise from people who are already a known contact, that can give assurance that the public health system is staying on top of transmission. In D.C., the data show that only 4.5% of cases arise this way — far from the goal of 60%.
Enlarge this image toggle caption DC.gov/Screenshot by NPR DC.gov/Screenshot by NPR
Put another way, 95.5% of new cases were previously unknown to the health department.
"It really does show how much community transmission we still have," Watson says. "It's really helpful to know that both we probably need to bring transmission down, generally, and [we need to] continue to improve contact tracing efficacy."
5. Delaware: Tracking down phone numbers is a challenge
Delaware offers a kind of narrative walk-through of the contact tracing process, from a new case being identified, all the way to contacts who themselves end up testing positive. Numbers are paired with explanations of what they show and why.
"Not all those who are reached are interviewed immediately," the notes read next to a figure that shows 17% of contacts reached did not complete the interview, and then it lists some possible reasons, including a contact being too busy to talk or hard of hearing. It also notes that 27% of cases and 43% of contacts lacked phone numbers and that "new efforts to obtain and validate phone numbers are being explored."
Enlarge this image toggle caption Delaware.gov/Screenshot by NPR Delaware.gov/Screenshot by NPR
"I love that they have the summary statistics up front," Watson says, noting that the percentage of contacts reached, the average number of contacts per case, and cases with known exposure to another case are all highlighted. The percent of cases with known exposure is 25%, much higher in Delaware than in D.C., which is at around 4%. (It's tricky to do these kinds of comparisons, though, without standardized metrics.)
"I also love how they step through the process and provide data and explanation at every step," Watson says. "It shows just how difficult it is to get in touch with people, but also how much work the health department is doing to carry it out."
6. North Dakota: Community spread surpasses household transmission
North Dakota was initially way out front in terms of contact tracing staff, according to NPR's first survey of state health departments. In the latest survey published in early August, NPR's analysis found that the state does not currently have enough contact tracing staff to keep up with new cases.
toggle caption ND.gov/Screenshot by NPR
Now, the state appears to be using contact tracing data to identify sources of exposure for new cases.
"Their buckets are kind of broad," Watson says. "It's interesting that community transmission is higher than close contact transmission," since close indoor contact is generally believed to be the main driver of COVID-19 transmission. More specificity — like in Louisiana's outbreak data — might help explain what these buckets mean in real life, she says.


npr--2020-08-14--Poll: Biden Expands Lead, A Third Of Country Says It Won't Get Vaccinated

Poll : Biden Expands Lead , A Third Of Country Says It Wo n't Get Vaccinated Democrat Joe Biden 's lead has expanded to double-digits against President Trump in the presidential election , an NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll finds .
Biden now leads Trump 53 % to 42 % , up from an 8-point advantage at the end of June .
It comes as 71 % of Americans now see the coronavirus as a real threat , up significantly over the last several months , as more than 167,000 Americans have died and more than 5 million have become infected with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ than a third of Americans ( 35 % ) say they wo n't get vaccinated when a vaccine comes available ; 60 % say they will .
There are huge splits by education and party on this .
Those with college degrees are 19 points more likely to get vaccinated than those without ( 72 % to 53 % ) , and Democrats are 23 points more likely than Republicans ( 71 % to 48 % ) .
Dr. Anthony Fauci , head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ unwarranted vaccine skepticism in some of the country and how that could slow overcoming the virus .
`` We have to admit and realize that there is an anti-vax movement that we have had to struggle with in this country , '' Fauci told the PBS NewsHour last month .
`` And I believe the solution to that would be community engagement ... because it could be lifesaving , and it certainly would be the solution to this terrible pandemic . ''
The poll shows that experts like Fauci have some leverage in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Three-quarters of Americans ( 75 % ) say they trust the information they hear from public-health experts a great deal or a good amount .
State and local officials also fare well with 62 % saying they trust what they hear from them .
President Trump , whose approval rating has dipped to 39 % in this survey , is seen as an unreliable source of information on the pandemic .
Just 31 % say they can trust the information coming from the president .
Less than half — 46 % — say @ @ @ @ @ @ @ media on it .
On the issues , Trump trails Biden substantially on who is seen as better to handle coronavirus or race relations .
Biden has a 53 % -to-37 % lead on handling coronavirus , and an even wider 58 % -to-34 % advantage on handling race relations .
Trump retains a narrow , 47 % -to-45 % edge on the economy , but that is has narrower than March when Trump had a clear 50 % -to-42 % lead on the question in an ABC/Washington Post poll .
All of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and where the vote is coming from .
Biden has now reached a majority ( 52 % ) with independents and leads Trump with this crucial group by 16 percentage points .
Biden also has significant advantages with Black voters , young voters , whites with a college degree and suburban voters .
Trump draws his strongest support from white evangelical Christians , whites without a college degree and those who live in rural areas .
But Trump has seen his advantages with other key groups decline , including with whites overall , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
What 's particularly striking is Trump and Biden are now tied with whites at 48 % .
Trump had a 6-point advantage with the group at the end of June .
To underscore the significance of this , Trump won white voters by 20 points in 2016 , and no Democrat has gotten more than 44 % of the white vote ( Clinton 1996 ) in a presidential election since 1976 .
That year , Carter got 48 % of the white vote and won in an electoral landslide , but only @ @ @ @ @ @ @ vote .
Back then , whites made up almost 9-in-10 voters .
In 2016 , whites were down to 70 % as a share of the electorate , and demographics point to a continuing downward trend .
Neither Trump nor Biden is viewed very favorably , but Trump 's score is far worse than Biden 's .
Just 35 % said they have a favorable view of Trump , even less than approve of the job he 's doing ; 60 % have an unfavorable view .
For Biden , 42 % had @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a negative one .
Notably , Biden leads by 19 points voters who say they dislike both candidates .
That 's important because in 2016 , Trump won voters who said they disliked both Trump and his Democrat Hillary Clinton by 30 points , according to exit polls .
Even though Clinton led for most of 2016 in surveys , the election broke late in Trump 's direction because of those voters who said they were undecided and said they disliked both candidates .
This poll finds that just 12 % are persuadable @ @ @ @ @ @ @ vote .
The one positive sign for Trump continues to be the strong backing of his supporters .
His voters are more enthusiastically behind him than Biden — 76 % of them say they strongly support the president versus 64 % of Biden 's .
A similar three-quarters of Trump supporters say they are casting their ballots in favor of Trump , while less than a quarter of Biden 's say they are ( 22 % ) .
Half of Biden 's voters instead say they are casting their ballot against Trump .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ in other surveys , but reelections are about the incumbent president , and the voters who oppose Trump are highly motivated to cast their ballots .
One of the goals of the Democratic convention , which begins next week , might be trying to drum up more enthusiasm for the ticket , now consisting of Biden and California Sen. Kamala Harris , whom Biden picked to be his running mate this week .
`` The pick of Harris and the Democratic convention could change that , '' said Lee Miringoff , director of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , which conducted the poll .
`` Certainly one of the goals of the Democratic convention should be to close this enthusiasm gap for the ticket . ''
Half of Americans ( 50 % ) now say they will cast their votes in person , up from 38 % in May .
Forty-three percent say they will mail in their ballots , down from 50 % in May .
And there is a big partisan split .
Biden voters mostly say they plan to cast their vote by mail , 62 % to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , plan to physically go to the polls — 72 % to 24 % .
Coronavirus — what to do and not do American families are hotly debating the right and wrong things to do during the tenuous reopenings during the pandemic .
Well , here are some numbers to settle those arguments .
Most Americans think it 's largely a good idea to eat outside at restaurants ( 80 % ) and have people physically return to work ( 58 % ) , though to a lesser degree .
They do not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ good idea to : allow large groups of people to attend religious , social or sporting events ( 27 % ) , allow children to take part in local or school sports ( 35 % ) , have students return to school ( 40 % ) or open restaurants for people to eat inside ( 43 % ) .
The survey of 1,261 U.S. adults , which includes 1,118 registered voters , was conducted by calling mobile phones and landlines , from Aug. 3 through Aug. 11 by The Marist Poll , in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has a margin of error of 3.3 percentage points when adults are referenced and 3.6 percentage points for registered voters .
The survey was sponsored in partnership with NPR and PBS NewsHour .

Poll: Biden Expands Lead; A Third Of Country Says It Won't Get Vaccinated
Enlarge this image toggle caption Olivier Douliery/AFP via Getty Images Olivier Douliery/AFP via Getty Images
Democrat Joe Biden's lead has expanded to double-digits against President Trump in the presidential election, an NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll finds. Biden now leads Trump 53% to 42%, up from an 8-point advantage at the end of June.
The change comes as 71% of Americans now see the coronavirus as a real threat, up significantly over the last several months, as more than 167,000 Americans have died and more than 5 million have become infected with the virus, as of Friday.
And yet, more than a third of Americans (35%) say they won't get vaccinated when a vaccine comes available; 60% say they will. There are huge splits by education and party on this. Those with college degrees are 19 points more likely to get vaccinated than those without (72% to 53%), and Democrats are 23 points more likely than Republicans (71% to 48%).
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(Just 52% had said they would get vaccinated for H1N1 in 2009 in the survey, but H1N1 was far less deadly and did not have the same far-reaching impact on the American economy and society.)
Dr. Anthony Fauci, head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, has said he is concerned about the unwarranted vaccine skepticism in some of the country and how that could slow overcoming the virus.
"We have to admit and realize that there is an anti-vax movement that we have had to struggle with in this country," Fauci told the PBS NewsHour last month. "And I believe the solution to that would be community engagement ... because it could be lifesaving, and it certainly would be the solution to this terrible pandemic."
The poll shows that experts like Fauci have some leverage in making the case to the public. Three-quarters of Americans (75%) say they trust the information they hear from public health experts a great deal or a good amount. State and local officials also fare well, with 62% of Americans saying they trust what they hear from those officials.
President Trump, whose approval rating has dipped to 39% in this survey, is seen as an unreliable source of information on the pandemic. Just 31% say they can trust the information coming from the president. Less than half — 46% — say they trust what they hear from news media on it.
On the issues, Trump trails Biden substantially on who is seen as better to handle coronavirus or race relations. Biden has a 53% to 37% lead on handling coronavirus and an even wider 58% to 34% advantage on handling race relations.
Trump retains a narrow, 47% to 45% edge on the economy, but that has narrowed since March when Trump had a clear 50% to 42% lead on the question in an ABC/Washington Post poll.
All of that helps explain Biden's expanded lead and where the vote is coming from. Biden has now reached a majority (52%) with independents and leads Trump with this crucial group by 16 percentage points.
Biden's advantages
Biden also has significant advantages with Black voters, young voters, whites with a college degree and suburban voters. Trump draws his strongest support from white evangelical Christians, whites without a college degree and those who live in rural areas.
Trump has seen his advantages with other key groups decline, including with whites overall, men and voters in small towns.
What's particularly striking is Trump and Biden are now tied with whites at 48%. Trump had a 6-point advantage with the group at the end of June.
To underscore the significance of this, Trump won white voters by 20 points in 2016, and no Democrat has gotten more than 44% of the white vote (incumbent President Bill Clinton in 1996) in a presidential election since 1976.
That year, Carter got 48% of the white vote and won in an electoral landslide, but only by 2 percentage points in the popular vote. Back then, whites made up almost 9 in 10 voters.
In 2016, whites were down to 70% as a share of the electorate, and demographics point to a continuing downward trend.
Neither Trump nor Biden is viewed very favorably, but Trump's score is far worse than Biden's. Just 35% said they have a favorable view of Trump, even less than approve of the job he's doing; 60% have an unfavorable view.
For Biden, 42% had a positive impression, 49% had a negative one.
Notably, Biden leads by 19 points voters who say they dislike both candidates. That's important because in 2016, Trump won voters who said they disliked both Trump and his Democrat Hillary Clinton by 17 points, according to exit polls.
Even though Clinton led for most of 2016 in surveys, the election broke late in Trump's direction because of voters who said they were undecided and said they disliked both candidates.
This poll finds that just 12% are persuadable — either undecided or could change their vote.
The one positive sign for Trump continues to be the strong backing of his supporters. His voters are more enthusiastically behind him than Biden — 76% of them say they strongly support the president versus 64% of Biden's.
A similar three-quarters of Trump supporters say they are casting their ballots in favor of Trump; only 22% said they are voting against Biden. Half of Biden's voters instead say they are casting their ballot against Trump.
The Trump campaign has highlighted similar findings in other surveys, but reelections are about the incumbent president, and the voters who oppose Trump are highly motivated to cast their ballots.
One of the goals of the Democratic National Convention, which begins next week, might be try to drum up more enthusiasm for the ticket, now consisting of Biden and California Sen. Kamala Harris, whom Biden picked to be his running mate this week after this poll was taken.
"The pick of Harris and the Democratic convention could change that," said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion, which conducted the poll. "Certainly, one of the goals of the Democratic convention should be to close this enthusiasm gap for the ticket."
Mailing it in
Half of Americans (50%) now say they will cast their votes in person, up from 38% in May.
Forty-three percent say they will mail in their ballots, down from 50% in May. And there is a big partisan split.
Biden voters mostly say they plan to cast their vote by mail, 62% to 36%.
Trump supporters, though, plan to physically go to the polls — 72% to 24%.
Coronavirus — what to do and not do
American families are hotly debating the right and wrong things to do during the tenuous reopenings during the pandemic.
Well, here are some numbers to settle those arguments. Most Americans think it's largely a good idea to eat outside at restaurants (80%) and have people physically return to work (58%), though to a lesser degree.
They do not, however, think it's a good idea to: allow large groups of people to attend religious, social or sporting events (just 27% in favor), allow children to take part in local or school sports (35%), have students return to school (40%) or open restaurants for people to eat inside (43%).
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The survey of 1,261 U.S. adults, including 1,118 registered voters, was conducted by calling mobile phones and landlines, from Aug. 3 through Aug. 11 by The Marist Poll, in both English and Spanish. The poll has a margin of error of 3.3 percentage points when adults are referenced and 3.6 percentage points for registered voters. The survey was sponsored in partnership with NPR and PBS NewsHour.


npr--2020-08-14--Political Conventions Will Likely Never Be The Same

Political Conventions Will Likely Never Be The Same It 's a nondescript , utilitarian room in the bowels of a sports arena .
The presidential nomination is on the line .
Aides to three candidates still in the contest are haggling with convention staff over who speaks when , will their biographical videos be shown , whose office space is nearest the floor .
It 's a political junkie 's dream .
It could be real .
But it 's not .
This is how it played out in a 2012 episode of NBC 's prime-time drama The West Wing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ close to this truly happened was in the summer of 1952 , when Illinois Gov .
Adlai Stevenson secured the Democratic nomination on the third ballot — the third round of voting .
That 's how far you have to go back to find a presidential nominating convention that needed more than one ballot to choose its nominee .
And since the 1970s , such a scenario has become even more unlikely , given that delegates are now awarded in caucus and primary contests held in every state and territory .
The big @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tradition dating back to the 1800s .
But in the modern era , each year , there 's growing criticism that they are simply outdated , expensive , multi-day infomercials .
This year , the pandemic has forced both parties to cancel plans and make their conventions virtual .
Some see it as an opportunity to completely overhaul how such events are held in future years .
Beyond the fact that it was the last time there was a so-called brokered convention , 1952 was an important year .
It was also the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ coast-to-coast television broadcast of political convention proceedings .
Both party gatherings were held weeks apart , at the International Amphitheater in Chicago .
Viewers across the country were able to watch from their living rooms as the Democrats nominated Stevenson , while the GOP standard-bearer was a newcomer to politics , former General Dwight D. Eisenhower who would go on to win the election .
But television also brought a shift in how the organizers of the conventions approached their jobs .
Professor Eric Heberlig of the University of North Carolina , Charlotte @ @ @ @ @ @ @ convention hall .
He says their thinking was , `` what 's going to reinforce our verbal message with a visual message , '' adding the planning began to focus on `` that audience out there that 's watching on television ? ''
Charisma and conflict in the TV age To watch old newsreel footage of that first televised convention is to see a very primitive production .
The sound was often distorted .
The camera movements often jerky , the images grainy .
The technology improved rapidly , and by 1960 , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Sen. John F. Kennedy , who was the first candidate to fully embrace the age of television .
`` I am asking each of you to be new pioneers on that New Frontier , '' Kennedy said from the rostrum , clearly speaking to more than just the delegates in the hall , `` My call is to the young in heart , regardless of age — to the stout in spirit , regardless of party . ''
But as TV took over , the cameras also captured conflict , and party infighting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Republican convention memorable , as conservative and liberal wings of the GOP clashed in plain view of the networks .
That 's the convention where conservative Arizona Sen. Barry Goldwater captured the nomination , with a speech that boasted , `` Extremism in defense of liberty is no vice ! ''
After a roar of cheers and applause Goldwater finished the sentence with , `` let me remind you also that moderation in the pursuit of justice is no virtue ! ''
That line was a sharp rebuke to an earlier convention speech @ @ @ @ @ @ @ liberal Republican governor from New York .
Rockefeller had been addressing the platform committee , stating that , `` The Republican party should reject extremism from either the left or the right . ''
The governor , who himself had sought the presidential nomination that year , was drowned out by shouts from the delegates and spectators .
Four years later , Democrats had their own epic and messy internal battles at a convention where the enduring images are of violent clashes outside between anti-war protestors and Chicago police using aggressive tactics .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ to the frustration of television networks hoping for a story to tell .
Still , that does n't necessarily mean there are n't legitimately newsworthy moments .
In 2004 , there was a young state senator from Illinois , who was running for the U.S. Senate that summer .
His name was Barack Obama and he described , `` The hope of a skinny kid with a funny name who believes that America has a place for him , too . ''
Then , in 2008 , there was a little known GOP @ @ @ @ @ @ @ who was a surprise pick as the running mate to John McCain just days before the convention .
Palin delivered a blockbuster speech , peppered with humor .
`` I love those hockey moms , '' she said , deftly setting up a punch-line , `` You know , they say the difference between a hockey mom and a pit bull ?
Lipstick . ''
Palin 's celebrity soared , even as her political career fizzled .
But the Republican convention was her first big stage .
And as for the complaints that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ nothing left to chance , there are still moments that backfire .
Witness Democratic nominee Walter Mondale in 1984 , who made a promise that would haunt his campaign to unseat President Ronald Reagan .
`` Mr. Reagan will raise taxes , '' Mondale intoned , adding , `` and so will I .
He wo n't tell you .
I just did . ''
Then there was the time in 2012 when a surprise guest took stage at the Republican convention in Tampa .
Viewers were stunned to see actor/director Clinton Eastwood @ @ @ @ @ @ @ chair .
He pretended President Obama was sitting there for an interview .
`` What do you want me to tell Romney ? ''
Eastwood said in his gravelly Dirty Harry voice .
A pause , then `` I , I ca n't tell him to do that .
He ca n't do that to himself . ''
The mere hint there of vulgarity may not seem like much in 2020 , but in 2012 , at a convention to nominate Mitt Romney , it was both awkward and a bit shocking .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Doug Heye , a former spokesman for the Republican National Committee , has come to the conclusion that it 's time to scrap the ritual of the big , multi-day political convention .
`` Conventions have n't changed in practically 40 years , '' Heye says .
They 've `` become four nights of a big , bloated system that just does n't get the attention that it used to . ''
TV networks that once boasted of their gavel-to-gavel coverage , now only carry the big prime-time speeches live .
And @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and guests talk over most of the action on the convention floor .
Heye says the cost of providing security — millions and millions of dollars — also makes such events less attractive to potential host cities as well .
He says the pandemic gives everyone a reason to rethink how these things are done .
This year , the conventions have gone virtual .
That 's a dramatic break from tradition and , Heye says , `` I think it 'd be almost impossible for a party to say we want to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in 2016 and this was just a blip . ''
`` You 're going to evolve from this one way or another , '' he predicts .
`` The question is how ? ''
Democrats and Republicans alike were already trying to adapt to a new viewing audience .
The push this year has been to use VIRAL moments in the way JFK embraced TV 60 years ago .
Leah Daughtry ran two national conventions for the Democrats — in 2008 and in 2016 .
She says conventions — no matter what shape @ @ @ @ @ @ @ core questions for voters .
`` What are the party 's values ?
What is the party 's vision ?
How is this nominee going to take us further ?
How are we planning to move the nation ? ''
Those are important things that voters , many of whom see conventions as their cue to start paying attention to the election , want to have answered .
Daughtry predicts that once 2020 is over , the next round of conventions in 2024 will be shortened to maybe just two days instead of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ even if TV networks give them less coverage , they still have great value for the party , and for party activists who volunteer for campaigns .
`` I do n't know that conventions are dead , '' says Daughtry .
who today works as a Christian minister at a church in Washington , D.C. `` They may be reformed and reformatted . ''
And , she begins to evangelize when she thinks about the people who come to conventions as delegates and as volunteers , `` But that kind of energy of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ closest thousand friends in the hall just wo n't go away.
`` It does seem like the door is being closed on a certain kind of convention .
What the future template for these mega-events will look like in the future is still unknown .
A lot will likely be learned from how 2020 's virtual conventions go , but no one believes that they will be the model for 2024 and beyond .

Political Conventions Will Likely Never Be The Same
Enlarge this image toggle caption Laura Rauch/AP Laura Rauch/AP
It's a nondescript, utilitarian room in the bowels of a sports arena. The presidential nomination is on the line. Aides to three candidates still in the contest are haggling with convention staff over who speaks when, will their biographical videos be shown, whose office space is nearest the floor. It's a political junkie's dream. It could be real. But it's not. This is how it played out in a 2012 episode of NBC's prime-time drama The West Wing.
The last time something even remotely close to this truly happened was in the summer of 1952, when Illinois Gov. Adlai Stevenson secured the Democratic nomination on the third ballot — the third round of voting. That's how far you have to go back to find a presidential nominating convention that needed more than one ballot to choose its nominee.
And since the 1970s, such a scenario has become even more unlikely, given that delegates are now awarded in caucus and primary contests held in every state and territory.
A tradition going back two centuries
The big Democratic and Republican conventions are a political tradition dating back to the 1800s. But in the modern era, each year, there's growing criticism that they are simply outdated, expensive, multi-day infomercials. This year, the pandemic has forced both parties to cancel plans and make their conventions virtual. Some see it as an opportunity to completely overhaul how such events are held in future years.
Beyond the fact that it was the last time there was a so-called brokered convention, 1952 was an important year. It was also the year of the very first live, coast-to-coast television broadcast of political convention proceedings. Both party gatherings were held weeks apart, at the International Amphitheater in Chicago. Viewers across the country were able to watch from their living rooms as the Democrats nominated Stevenson, while the GOP standard-bearer was a newcomer to politics, former General Dwight D. Eisenhower who would go on to win the election. But television also brought a shift in how the organizers of the conventions approached their jobs. Professor Eric Heberlig of the University of North Carolina, Charlotte says the parties began looking beyond the convention hall. He says their thinking was, "what's going to reinforce our verbal message with a visual message," adding the planning began to focus on "that audience out there that's watching on television?"
Newsreel footage of several Democratic candidates heading into the convention to battle for the presidential nomination in 1952. British Pathé YouTube
Charisma and conflict in the TV age
To watch old newsreel footage of that first televised convention is to see a very primitive production. The sound was often distorted. The camera movements often jerky, the images grainy. The technology improved rapidly, and by 1960, the Democrats nominated the young, telegenic Sen. John F. Kennedy, who was the first candidate to fully embrace the age of television.
"I am asking each of you to be new pioneers on that New Frontier," Kennedy said from the rostrum, clearly speaking to more than just the delegates in the hall, "My call is to the young in heart, regardless of age — to the stout in spirit, regardless of party."
But as TV took over, the cameras also captured conflict, and party infighting. That's what made the 1964 Republican convention memorable, as conservative and liberal wings of the GOP clashed in plain view of the networks. That's the convention where conservative Arizona Sen. Barry Goldwater captured the nomination, with a speech that boasted, "Extremism in defense of liberty is no vice!" After a roar of cheers and applause Goldwater finished the sentence with, "let me remind you also that moderation in the pursuit of justice is no virtue!"
Enlarge this image toggle caption AP AP
That line was a sharp rebuke to an earlier convention speech from Goldwater rival Nelson Rockefeller, the liberal Republican governor from New York. Rockefeller had been addressing the platform committee, stating that, "The Republican party should reject extremism from either the left or the right." The governor, who himself had sought the presidential nomination that year, was drowned out by shouts from the delegates and spectators.
Four years later, Democrats had their own epic and messy internal battles at a convention where the enduring images are of violent clashes outside between anti-war protestors and Chicago police using aggressive tactics.
Big moments for new faces
Conventions have become increasingly choreographed, much to the frustration of television networks hoping for a story to tell. Still, that doesn't necessarily mean there aren't legitimately newsworthy moments.
In 2004, there was a young state senator from Illinois, who was running for the U.S. Senate that summer. His name was Barack Obama and he described, "The hope of a skinny kid with a funny name who believes that America has a place for him, too."
Then, in 2008, there was a little known GOP governor from Alaska named Sarah Palin, who was a surprise pick as the running mate to John McCain just days before the convention. Palin delivered a blockbuster speech, peppered with humor.
"I love those hockey moms," she said, deftly setting up a punch-line, "You know, they say the difference between a hockey mom and a pit bull? Lipstick."
CNN YouTube
Palin's celebrity soared, even as her political career fizzled. But the Republican convention was her first big stage.
And as for the complaints that conventions have become too scripted, with nothing left to chance, there are still moments that backfire. Witness Democratic nominee Walter Mondale in 1984, who made a promise that would haunt his campaign to unseat President Ronald Reagan.
"Mr. Reagan will raise taxes," Mondale intoned, adding, "and so will I. He won't tell you. I just did."
Then there was the time in 2012 when a surprise guest took stage at the Republican convention in Tampa. Viewers were stunned to see actor/director Clinton Eastwood appear, standing next to an empty chair. He pretended President Obama was sitting there for an interview.
toggle caption Charles Dharapak/AP
"What do you want me to tell Romney?" Eastwood said in his gravelly Dirty Harry voice. A pause, then "I, I can't tell him to do that. He can't do that to himself." The mere hint there of vulgarity may not seem like much in 2020, but in 2012, at a convention to nominate Mitt Romney, it was both awkward and a bit shocking. The audience did laugh --- nervously.
Time for a change, political pros say
Doug Heye, a former spokesman for the Republican National Committee, has come to the conclusion that it's time to scrap the ritual of the big, multi-day political convention.
"Conventions haven't changed in practically 40 years," Heye says. They've "become four nights of a big, bloated system that just doesn't get the attention that it used to."
TV networks that once boasted of their gavel-to-gavel coverage, now only carry the big prime-time speeches live. And even during those evening broadcast, anchors and guests talk over most of the action on the convention floor.
Heye says the cost of providing security — millions and millions of dollars — also makes such events less attractive to potential host cities as well. He says the pandemic gives everyone a reason to rethink how these things are done.
This year, the conventions have gone virtual. That's a dramatic break from tradition and, Heye says, "I think it'd be almost impossible for a party to say we want to go back exactly to what we did in 2016 and this was just a blip."
"You're going to evolve from this one way or another," he predicts. "The question is how?"
Enlarge this image toggle caption JIM WATSON/AFP via Getty Images JIM WATSON/AFP via Getty Images
What's next?
Democrats and Republicans alike were already trying to adapt to a new viewing audience. The push this year has been to use VIRAL moments in the way JFK embraced TV 60 years ago. Leah Daughtry ran two national conventions for the Democrats — in 2008 and in 2016. She says conventions — no matter what shape they take — do still answer some core questions for voters.
"What are the party's values? What is the party's vision? How is this nominee going to take us further? How are we planning to move the nation?" Those are important things that voters, many of whom see conventions as their cue to start paying attention to the election, want to have answered.
Daughtry predicts that once 2020 is over, the next round of conventions in 2024 will be shortened to maybe just two days instead of the traditional four. She says that even if TV networks give them less coverage, they still have great value for the party, and for party activists who volunteer for campaigns.
"I don't know that conventions are dead," says Daughtry. who today works as a Christian minister at a church in Washington, D.C. "They may be reformed and reformatted." And, she begins to evangelize when she thinks about the people who come to conventions as delegates and as volunteers, "But that kind of energy of several thousand people, you and your closest thousand friends in the hall just won't go away. "
It does seem like the door is being closed on a certain kind of convention. What the future template for these mega-events will look like in the future is still unknown. A lot will likely be learned from how 2020's virtual conventions go, but no one believes that they will be the model for 2024 and beyond.


npr--2020-08-14--U.S. Ambassador Says Israel's Agreement With UAE Holds 'Enormous Upside'

U.S .
Ambassador Says Israel 's Agreement With UAE Holds 'Enormous Upside' The White House announced a deal Thursday for the United Arab Emirates and Israel to work toward normal diplomatic relations .
Most Arab countries do not have normal diplomatic relations with Israel .
If the pact can be fulfilled , the UAE would join Egypt and Jordan as only the third Arab nation in the region with normalized ties .
As part of the agreement , Israel has agreed to suspend its controversial plans to annex territory in the occupied West Bank — territory Palestinians have long hoped @ @ @ @ @ @ @ state .
The UAE and Israel have held informal ties for years .
Speaking from the White House , President Trump took credit for the accord , which followed a call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed of the UAE .
The White House said Israel and the UAE `` will meet in the coming weeks to sign bilateral agreements regarding investment , tourism , direct flights , security , telecommunications , technology , energy , healthcare , culture , the environment , the establishment of reciprocal @ @ @ @ @ @ @ . ''
Netanyahu had promised to annex large parts of the West Bank , which is home to nearly 3 million Palestinians and 450,000 Jewish settlers .
The threat met with international condemnation from countries seeking to have the status of the territory decided through negotiations , not unilateral moves .
The U.N. Security Council has said settlements are illegal .
As Israel saw a spike in COVID-19 cases and there was disagreement over how to handle annexation , Netanyahu backed off the idea earlier this summer .
For one perspective on the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ talked to the U.S .
Ambassador to Israel David Friedman .
Friedman supports Israeli settlements and has been critical of a two-state solution .
On what drove the UAE and Israel to agree now I think that there were a few things .
I mean , the most important is I think they both realized it was in the interests of their respective peoples .
They see enormous upside in collaborating and cooperating in all the fields that you mentioned and several more .
Obviously they share a common threat within the region @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Iran , which continues to be a malign influence and the largest state sponsor of terrorism .
I think that from the perspective of the United Arab Emirates , I think they were encouraged by Israel 's agreement back in January to endorse the peace plan that the president endorsed and to actually for the first time in 50-some odd years , to agree to specific territorial dimensions by which they would live side-by-side with a Palestinian state .
I think all these things , and I could n't possibly prioritize the factors @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I think , created a dynamic for both Israel and the Emirates to become friends .
On the agreement being a prerequisite for possible U.S. advanced arms sales to the UAE I think that the more the Emirates becomes a friend of Israel , becomes a partner with Israel , becomes a regional ally of the United States , I think obviously that that alters the threat assessment and could work out to the Emirates ' benefit on that issue .
On Israel only suspending annexation , not abandoning it , and Palestinians @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The entire notion of Israeli sovereignty derives from the map that Israel had agreed to , which itself contemplates a Palestinian state living alongside Israel .
So it 's that peace initiative that where Israel for the first time agreed to live within a Palestinian state that would comprise 70 % of Judea and Samaria , plus some additional territory elsewhere .
I mean , that is a huge benefit for the Palestinians .
And I think it 's the agreement between Israel and the Emirates that , frankly , breathes some life @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Palestinians should feel betrayed .
What the Palestinians should recognize is that in contrast to the old days , they no longer can hold countries hostage from acting in their own self-interests .
It 's in the interest of the Emirates to make peace with Israel and vice versa .

U.S. Ambassador Says Israel's Agreement With UAE Holds 'Enormous Upside'
Enlarge this image toggle caption Tasos Katopodis/Getty Images Tasos Katopodis/Getty Images
The White House announced a deal Thursday for the United Arab Emirates and Israel to work toward normal diplomatic relations.
Most Arab countries do not have normal diplomatic relations with Israel. If the pact can be fulfilled, the UAE would join Egypt and Jordan as only the third Arab nation in the region with normalized ties.
As part of the agreement, Israel has agreed to suspend its controversial plans to annex territory in the occupied West Bank — territory Palestinians have long hoped to be a part of a future state.
The UAE and Israel have held informal ties for years. Speaking from the White House, President Trump took credit for the accord, which followed a call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed of the UAE.
The White House said Israel and the UAE "will meet in the coming weeks to sign bilateral agreements regarding investment, tourism, direct flights, security, telecommunications, technology, energy, healthcare, culture, the environment, the establishment of reciprocal embassies and other areas of mutual benefit."
Netanyahu had promised to annex large parts of the West Bank, which is home to nearly 3 million Palestinians and 450,000 Jewish settlers. The threat met with international condemnation from countries seeking to have the status of the territory decided through negotiations, not unilateral moves. The U.N. Security Council has said settlements are illegal.
As Israel saw a spike in COVID-19 cases and there was disagreement over how to handle annexation, Netanyahu backed off the idea earlier this summer.
For one perspective on the prospective deal, NPR's Morning Edition talked to the U.S. Ambassador to Israel David Friedman. Friedman supports Israeli settlements and has been critical of a two-state solution.
Interview Highlights
On what drove the UAE and Israel to agree now
I think that there were a few things. I mean, the most important is I think they both realized it was in the interests of their respective peoples. They see enormous upside in collaborating and cooperating in all the fields that you mentioned and several more. Obviously they share a common threat within the region, which is the Islamic Republic of Iran, which continues to be a malign influence and the largest state sponsor of terrorism.
I think that from the perspective of the United Arab Emirates, I think they were encouraged by Israel's agreement back in January to endorse the peace plan that the president endorsed and to actually for the first time in 50-some odd years, to agree to specific territorial dimensions by which they would live side-by-side with a Palestinian state.
I think all these things, and I couldn't possibly prioritize the factors, but all these things collectively, I think, created a dynamic for both Israel and the Emirates to become friends.
On the agreement being a prerequisite for possible U.S. advanced arms sales to the UAE
I think that the more the Emirates becomes a friend of Israel, becomes a partner with Israel, becomes a regional ally of the United States, I think obviously that that alters the threat assessment and could work out to the Emirates' benefit on that issue.
World More Perspective: Middle East Institute Fellow Bilal Saab Discusses Israel And UAE Agreement Middle East Institute Fellow Bilal Saab Discusses Israel And UAE Agreement Listen · 5:12 5:12
On Israel only suspending annexation, not abandoning it, and Palestinians saying they feel betrayed by the UAE
The entire notion of Israeli sovereignty derives from the map that Israel had agreed to, which itself contemplates a Palestinian state living alongside Israel. So it's that peace initiative that where Israel for the first time agreed to live within a Palestinian state that would comprise 70% of Judea and Samaria, plus some additional territory elsewhere. I mean, that is a huge benefit for the Palestinians. And I think it's the agreement between Israel and the Emirates that, frankly, breathes some life into it. I don't think the Palestinians should feel betrayed. What the Palestinians should recognize is that in contrast to the old days, they no longer can hold countries hostage from acting in their own self-interests. It's in the interest of the Emirates to make peace with Israel and vice versa.
Ryan Benk and Simone Popperl produced the audio interview.


npr--2020-08-14--New Zealand Investigates A Mystery: Where Did Its New Cases Come From?

New Zealand Investigates A Mystery : Where Did Its New Cases Come From ?
After more than three months without any known community spread of the coronavirus in New Zealand , a new outbreak in Auckland has upset the fragile normalcy that had returned in the nation .
It was just Tuesday that the government said it had its first cases from an unknown source in 102 days , all within one family .
By Friday , the outbreak had grown to 30 cases , including in other cities where members of the household had traveled .
Now , a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the outbreak — a search that shows how difficult it is to stamp out the virus , even on an island nation that has taken quick and decisive steps to eliminate it .
There are a few theories about how the virus might have slipped through New Zealand 's defenses .
One focus is a cool storage facility of a U.S.-based company called Americold .
A number of the cases in the new cluster are employees at an Americold facility in Auckland .
Could the virus have spread via freight ?
`` @ @ @ @ @ @ @ indications are that it is not very likely , '' says Donald Schaffner , a food microbiologist at Rutgers University .
New Zealand 's food safety authority released a statement on Thursday reminding that the general scientific consensus is that the risk of COVID-19 transmission by food or food packaging is `` negligible . ''
The authority said that consensus `` results from epidemiological observations from the large number of global cases , the limited ability of the organism to survive on inanimate surfaces and the unlikely probability that an infectious dose would @ @ @ @ @ @ @ scenarios , especially that moving in international trade , '' the authority said .
In other words , a whole lot of things would have to align for someone to become infected via imported food or food packaging .
While China has been doing widespread testing of imported food packaging and has occasionally had tests come back positive for the virus , the New Zealand authority said , `` It is our understanding there have only been [ six ] positives from over 200,000 tests run .
Further these testing results do not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Surfaces in the Americold facility have been swabbed for the virus , but Dr. Ashley Bloomfield , New Zealand 's director-general of health , said it 's more likely that the virus spread via humans .
Respiratory transmission is understood to be the primary way that the virus is spread .
`` We are looking still at the human-to-human transmission and going back along that chain , '' Bloomfield said Friday .
`` We 're also thoroughly investigating the sort of chain through the Americold setting from the border , right through to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ getting help from our police colleagues to sort of treat that as an end-to-end scene examination . ''
Another theory : Perhaps the virus has been circulating at a low level for all this time and eventually found a host that it made sick enough to become symptomatic .
Once people started being tested around that index case , more cases were found .
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said that possibility has become less likely , with new genomic data that found the strain of the virus in the new cluster is different @ @ @ @ @ @ @ country earlier this year .
`` This suggests this is not a case of the virus being dormant or a burning ember in our community , '' Ardern said .
`` It appears to be new to New Zealand . ''
Bloomfield agreed .
`` I think the nature of this outbreak shows how actually once you identify that first case , you find quite a lot quite quickly , '' he said .
`` And we just would n't have not found cases over the last three months if it had been @ @ @ @ @ @ @ especially because we were going into winter . ''
Yet another theory : Could the virus have been spread from an incoming traveler to someone who works at an airport or managed quarantine facility ?
For months , the country has closed its borders to almost all travelers .
New Zealand citizens are permitted to return but must go into 14 days of managed isolation or quarantine .
There have been arrivals who test positive for the virus , but they are kept isolated from the general population .
Since the new cluster @ @ @ @ @ @ @ managed isolation facilities , ports and airports are being tested .
But so far , the new strain of the virus does n't match the samples of the positive cases who have arrived at the country 's border .
So for now , the viral mystery continues .
More cases in the cluster are expected to crop up in the coming days .
`` It will grow before it slows , '' Ardern predicted .
She said it 's possible that the new outbreak 's source may never be found — but that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ going hard and going early '' to bring the cases under control .
`` It is possible to contain a cluster or outbreak without ever being able to determine its origin , '' she said .
`` What is important is being able to establish the perimeter of the cluster and stop it from growing . ''

New Zealand Investigates A Mystery: Where Did Its New Cases Come From?
Enlarge this image toggle caption Hagen Hopkins/Getty Images Hagen Hopkins/Getty Images
After more than three months without any known community spread of the coronavirus in New Zealand, a new outbreak in Auckland has upset the fragile normalcy that had returned in the nation.
It was just Tuesday that the government said it had its first cases from an unknown source in 102 days, all within one family. By Friday, the outbreak had grown to 30 cases, including in other cities where members of the household had traveled.
Now, a hunt is on to find the source of the outbreak — a search that shows how difficult it is to stamp out the virus, even on an island nation that has taken quick and decisive steps to eliminate it.
There are a few theories about how the virus might have slipped through New Zealand's defenses.
One focus is a cool storage facility of a U.S.-based company called Americold. A number of the cases in the new cluster are employees at an Americold facility in Auckland.
Could the virus have spread via freight?
"It is theoretically possible, but all indications are that it is not very likely," says Donald Schaffner, a food microbiologist at Rutgers University.
New Zealand's food safety authority released a statement on Thursday reminding that the general scientific consensus is that the risk of COVID-19 transmission by food or food packaging is "negligible."
The authority said that consensus "results from epidemiological observations from the large number of global cases, the limited ability of the organism to survive on inanimate surfaces and the unlikely probability that an infectious dose would survive and be transmitted in food packaging scenarios, especially that moving in international trade," the authority said.
In other words, a whole lot of things would have to align for someone to become infected via imported food or food packaging. While China has been doing widespread testing of imported food packaging and has occasionally had tests come back positive for the virus, the New Zealand authority said, "It is our understanding there have only been [six] positives from over 200,000 tests run. Further these testing results do not determine presence of infectious particles."
Surfaces in the Americold facility have been swabbed for the virus, but Dr. Ashley Bloomfield, New Zealand's director-general of health, said it's more likely that the virus spread via humans. Respiratory transmission is understood to be the primary way that the virus is spread.
"We are looking still at the human-to-human transmission and going back along that chain," Bloomfield said Friday. "We're also thoroughly investigating the sort of chain through the Americold setting from the border, right through to that cool store, and we are getting help from our police colleagues to sort of treat that as an end-to-end scene examination."
Another theory: Perhaps the virus has been circulating at a low level for all this time and eventually found a host that it made sick enough to become symptomatic. Once people started being tested around that index case, more cases were found.
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said that possibility has become less likely, with new genomic data that found the strain of the virus in the new cluster is different from strains that had circulated in the country earlier this year.
"This suggests this is not a case of the virus being dormant or a burning ember in our community," Ardern said. "It appears to be new to New Zealand."
Bloomfield agreed. "I think the nature of this outbreak shows how actually once you identify that first case, you find quite a lot quite quickly," he said. "And we just wouldn't have not found cases over the last three months if it had been still lurking away in the community, especially because we were going into winter."
Yet another theory: Could the virus have been spread from an incoming traveler to someone who works at an airport or managed quarantine facility?
For months, the country has closed its borders to almost all travelers. New Zealand citizens are permitted to return but must go into 14 days of managed isolation or quarantine. There have been arrivals who test positive for the virus, but they are kept isolated from the general population.
Since the new cluster emerged, workers at the country's managed isolation facilities, ports and airports are being tested. But so far, the new strain of the virus doesn't match the samples of the positive cases who have arrived at the country's border.
So for now, the viral mystery continues.
More cases in the cluster are expected to crop up in the coming days. "It will grow before it slows," Ardern predicted.
She said it's possible that the new outbreak's source may never be found — but that won't stop New Zealand from "going hard and going early" to bring the cases under control.
"It is possible to contain a cluster or outbreak without ever being able to determine its origin," she said. "What is important is being able to establish the perimeter of the cluster and stop it from growing."