washingtonmonthly--2020-09-02--Trump Is Corrupting the Entire Federal Government to Help His Reelection

As we approach the November election , it has become clear that what we will see and hear from Donald Trump will become increasingly deranged .
That was demonstrated during the first installment of his interview with Laura Ingraham when he peddled a known conspiracy theory .
Demonstrating what it means to have someone that deranged in charge of the federal government , Trump announced that the Departments of Justice and Homeland Security would investigate “ left-wing civil unrest ” at his press conference on Monday , claiming that it was all a Democratic plot .
Appearing on Tucker Carlson @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Wolf seemed to corroborate that announcement .
None of those people mentioned that it was a Trump supporter with ties to right wing militia groups who opened fire on protesters in Kenosha , killing two people .
That comes on the heels of a July report documenting that right wing extremists have become more lethal during Trump ’ s presidency , killing 87 Americans .
Back in February , Christopher Wray elevated the FBI ’ s assessment of the threat posed by those groups to a “ national threat priority ” for fiscal @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , who served in the Trump administration as Assistant Secretary at DHS for Counterterrorism and Threat Prevention , she and her colleagues gathered data on the threat posed by right wing extremist groups and took it to the president .
He wasn ’ t interested .
But of course , now he ’ s focused all of the administration ’ s efforts on “ left wing extremists.
” These developments align with the kind of thing we ’ ve seen recently from the Director of National Intelligence John Ratcliffe and Attorney General Bill @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hold people like John Kelly , Jeff Sessions , and Rex Tillerson accountable , Trump got rid of all of them and has filled his cabinet with loyalists who are willing to use all of the power of the federal bureaucracy to support the president ’ s delusions .
Of course , we ’ ve seen all of this before when it comes to Trump ’ s handling of foreign policy .
For example , you might recall what former EU Ambassador Gordon Sondland told David Holmes in response to a question about @ @ @ @ @ @ @ give a sh*t about Ukraine.
” Sondland said that Trump only cares about the “ big stuff , ” by which he meant the “ big stuff ” that benefits the president .
That is the big picture that we have to keep in mind because , as we approach the November election , we ’ re getting into extremely dangerous territory when a sitting president is willing to corrupt the entire federal bureaucracy to assist him in getting reelected .

As we approach the November election, it has become clear that what we will see and hear from Donald Trump will become increasingly deranged. That was demonstrated during the first installment of his interview with Laura Ingraham when he peddled a known conspiracy theory.
Demonstrating what it means to have someone that deranged in charge of the federal government, Trump announced that the Departments of Justice and Homeland Security would investigate “left-wing civil unrest” at his press conference on Monday, claiming that it was all a Democratic plot. Appearing on Tucker Carlson’s show, DHS Secretary Chad Wolf seemed to corroborate that announcement.
None of those people mentioned that it was a Trump supporter with ties to right wing militia groups who opened fire on protesters in Kenosha, killing two people. That comes on the heels of a July report documenting that right wing extremists have become more lethal during Trump’s presidency, killing 87 Americans. Back in February, Christopher Wray elevated the FBI’s assessment of the threat posed by those groups to a “national threat priority” for fiscal year 2020.
According to Elizabeth Neumann, who served in the Trump administration as Assistant Secretary at DHS for Counterterrorism and Threat Prevention, she and her colleagues gathered data on the threat posed by right wing extremist groups and took it to the president. He wasn’t interested. But of course, now he’s focused all of the administration’s efforts on “left wing extremists.”
These developments align with the kind of thing we’ve seen recently from the Director of National Intelligence John Ratcliffe and Attorney General Bill Barr. While it was important to hold people like John Kelly, Jeff Sessions, and Rex Tillerson accountable, Trump got rid of all of them and has filled his cabinet with loyalists who are willing to use all of the power of the federal bureaucracy to support the president’s delusions.
Of course, we’ve seen all of this before when it comes to Trump’s handling of foreign policy. For example, you might recall what former EU Ambassador Gordon Sondland told David Holmes in response to a question about why the president didn’t “give a sh*t about Ukraine.” Sondland said that Trump only cares about the “big stuff,” by which he meant the “big stuff” that benefits the president.
That is the big picture that we have to keep in mind because, as we approach the November election, we’re getting into extremely dangerous territory when a sitting president is willing to corrupt the entire federal bureaucracy to assist him in getting reelected.


washingtonmonthly--2020-09-02--Trump’s Steadfast Campaign of White Nationalism

Politicians who are behind in the polls frequently try to change the subject .
Sometimes they say the polls shouldn ’ t be believed , and other times they say they have unpublished internal polling that looks much better for them .
But a well-financed campaign should know where they actually stand with the voters .
A presidential campaign should not only know if they ’ re winning or losing , but which issues are helping or hurting them .
For example , the Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Wednesday shows Trump trailing Joe Biden 40 percent to 47 percent .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ percent of voters are concerned about COVID-19 , and 60 percent assign blame to Trump for both the high death count and the school and business closures .
Meanwhile , fewer than one in ten survey respondents listed crime as their top priority , and “ 62 percentTrum of Democrats and 65 percent of Republicans , said crime was not increasing in their communities.
” A small majority ( 53 percent ) is sympathetic to protests for racial justice , including calls for fairer treatment of minorities by the police .
This also @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Trump strategy flies in the face of these numbers .
He constantly dismisses people ’ s concerns about the novel coronavirus and instead focuses on the traditional suburban aversion to urban crime and disorder .
He demonizes protests that the people narrowly support , argues that the economy is actually good when millions of people are out of work and small businesses are going bankrupt every day ; and he has almost nothing to say about health care , which is listed in the Reuters/Ipsos poll as people ’ s number one issue @ @ @ @ @ @ @ campaign seeks to move these numbers .
They want to make people focus on crime instead of police shootings .
They want to drive a wedge between the Democrats ’ suburban and urban supporters .
They want to convince people that the economy was great before the COVID-19 outbreak and that the president is best positioned to help it recover .
However , as things stand , they ’ re just reinforcing issues where they have a disadvantage .
When he talks about crime , he ’ s not talking about an issue @ @ @ @ @ @ @ minds .
When he talks about protestors , he ’ s attacking people who have the public ’ s sympathy .
When he downplays the impact of the global pandemic , he reminds people why they blame him for school closures and persistent unemployment .
The campaign has to know that this isn ’ t a winning strategy and that voters are not responding , but they can ’ t convince Trump to adopt a strategy that meets his actual weaknesses or that effectively exploits Biden ’ s soft spots .
Trump appears @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to run , without much concern for whether it has a good prospect for success .
Maybe this is because Trump is crazy , or maybe he ’ s not capable of anything else .
Personally , I believe the explanation is simpler .
Trump is running a white nationalist campaign because he ’ s a white nationalist .
He wants to inflame racial feeling , on the theory that whites are still a majority in this country and will eventually rally to their own defense if they feel sufficiently threatened .
He @ @ @ @ @ @ @ but more importantly , this is his true purpose for being president in the first place .
If he doesn ’ t try , it ’ s not worth having the position anyway .
His ambition is to roll back nonwhite immigration , whether legal or not , with the purpose of enhancing and preserving white power .
So , the president doesn ’ t have internal polling that shows his strategy is working .
He ’ s not poll-driven but goal-oriented .
Fortunately , so far there is no majority supportive of @ @ @

Politicians who are behind in the polls frequently try to change the subject. Sometimes they say the polls shouldn’t be believed, and other times they say they have unpublished internal polling that looks much better for them. But a well-financed campaign should know where they actually stand with the voters. A presidential campaign should not only know if they’re winning or losing, but which issues are helping or hurting them.
For example, the Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Wednesday shows Trump trailing Joe Biden 40 percent to 47 percent. Trump is losing in part because 78 percent of voters are concerned about COVID-19, and 60 percent assign blame to Trump for both the high death count and the school and business closures.
Meanwhile, fewer than one in ten survey respondents listed crime as their top priority, and “62 percentTrum of Democrats and 65 percent of Republicans, said crime was not increasing in their communities.” A small majority (53 percent) is sympathetic to protests for racial justice, including calls for fairer treatment of minorities by the police. This also holds true in the suburbs:
While support for the protesters has declined overall since the immediate aftermath of the police killing in May of George Floyd in Minneapolis, which sparked a national conversation on race, the poll showed more than half of suburban Americans and more than half of undecided registered voters are still sympathetic to them.
The Trump strategy flies in the face of these numbers. He constantly dismisses people’s concerns about the novel coronavirus and instead focuses on the traditional suburban aversion to urban crime and disorder. He demonizes protests that the people narrowly support, argues that the economy is actually good when millions of people are out of work and small businesses are going bankrupt every day; and he has almost nothing to say about health care, which is listed in the Reuters/Ipsos poll as people’s number one issue.
To be fair, the Trump campaign seeks to move these numbers. They want to make people focus on crime instead of police shootings. They want to drive a wedge between the Democrats’ suburban and urban supporters. They want to convince people that the economy was great before the COVID-19 outbreak and that the president is best positioned to help it recover.
However, as things stand, they’re just reinforcing issues where they have a disadvantage. When he talks about crime, he’s not talking about an issue at the top of people’s minds. When he talks about protestors, he’s attacking people who have the public’s sympathy. When he downplays the impact of the global pandemic, he reminds people why they blame him for school closures and persistent unemployment.
The campaign has to know that this isn’t a winning strategy and that voters are not responding, but they can’t convince Trump to adopt a strategy that meets his actual weaknesses or that effectively exploits Biden’s soft spots.
Trump appears to be running the campaign he wants to run, without much concern for whether it has a good prospect for success. Maybe this is because Trump is crazy, or maybe he’s not capable of anything else. Personally, I believe the explanation is simpler. Trump is running a white nationalist campaign because he’s a white nationalist. He wants to inflame racial feeling, on the theory that whites are still a majority in this country and will eventually rally to their own defense if they feel sufficiently threatened. He think this will win him reelection, but more importantly, this is his true purpose for being president in the first place. If he doesn’t try, it’s not worth having the position anyway. His ambition is to roll back nonwhite immigration, whether legal or not, with the purpose of enhancing and preserving white power.
So, the president doesn’t have internal polling that shows his strategy is working. He’s not poll-driven but goal-oriented. Fortunately, so far there is no majority supportive of his goals.


washingtonmonthly--2020-09-03--Biden Has a Plan to Reopen Schools. Trump Does Not.

As schools reopen , the news from colleges and universities is not good .
A return to campus for the new academic year has colleges and universities struggling to both contain outbreaks of Covid-19 and enforce policies meant to prevent its spread .
Across the United States , at least 36 states have reported positive cases at colleges and universities , adding more than 8,700 cases to the country ’ s tally .
Almost 6 million infections have been recorded in the United States , according to data from Johns Hopkins University .
That doesn ’ t bode well for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ though we ’ re still still learning about the risks of contraction by age .
Joe Biden , however , has a COVID-19 plan for K-12 schools , while the president , who claimed that children are almost immune from COVID-19 ( a bald-faced lie ) , doesn ’ t .
The first step of Biden ’ s plan , released over a month ago , includes something the Trump administration has failed to do : get the virus under control via actions such as implementation of nationwide testing-and-tracing .
Take a look @ @ @ @ @ @ @ totally different from Trump ’ s nonsense .
I don ’ t believe that “ sacrifice ” is a word in Trump ’ s vocabulary .
When it comes to decisions about when and how schools should reopen , Biden ’ s plan is not a one-size-fits-all .
Biden ’ s plan is in line with the approach he has taken in recent days , suggesting that school districts are confronting different scenarios and should respond accordingly .
It ’ s a notably different message from the one being sent by the White @ @ @ @ @ @ @ economic well-being dictate that all schools should reopen on time .
To accommodate that kind of flexibility , Biden ’ s plan calls for the creation of a Safer Schools Best Practices Clearinghouse to “ help schools and child care providers across the country and around the world share approaches , protocols , and tools for reopening safely.
” In addition , Biden ’ s plan calls for Congress to appropriate $ 92 billion in additional funding for schools to do things like “ reconfigure classrooms , kitchens , and other spaces , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ steps to make it easier to physically distance and minimize risk of spread.
” If schools can ’ t reopen safely , they won ’ t , according to the Biden plan .
“ You ’ ve got to make sure you ’ re not putting them back in the circumstance where they ’ re going to become ill with covid and/or bring that covid back home , ” he said .
“ Many of them live in multigenerational homes .
So they come home with covid and they may not get seriously @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , their grandpop — somebody ends up dying .
“ So we end up with a circumstance where you ’ ve got to try to figure out what the mix is that you can afford to do , ” he said .
The Democratic leaders are ready to get this done .
Where is the president ?
Why isn ’ t he working on this ?
We need emergency support funding for our schools — and we need it now .
Mr. President , that is your job .
That ’ s what @ @ @ @ @ @ @ kids back to school .
Not whipping up fear and division — not inciting violence in our streets .
Get off Twitter .
Invite the leaders of Congress to the Oval Office and do what you boast about –but never seem to actually do — negotiate a deal to help someone other than yourself .
Trump will not accept that challenge , which is why the safety of this country ’ s children is on the ballot this November .

As schools reopen, the news from colleges and universities is not good.
A return to campus for the new academic year has colleges and universities struggling to both contain outbreaks of Covid-19 and enforce policies meant to prevent its spread. Across the United States, at least 36 states have reported positive cases at colleges and universities, adding more than 8,700 cases to the country’s tally. Almost 6 million infections have been recorded in the United States, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.
That doesn’t bode well for K-12 schools that are opening, even though we’re still still learning about the risks of contraction by age. Joe Biden, however, has a COVID-19 plan for K-12 schools, while the president, who claimed that children are almost immune from COVID-19 (a bald-faced lie), doesn’t.
The first step of Biden’s plan, released over a month ago, includes something the Trump administration has failed to do: get the virus under control via actions such as implementation of nationwide testing-and-tracing. Take a look at how Biden’s message is totally different from Trump’s nonsense.
I don’t believe that “sacrifice” is a word in Trump’s vocabulary.
When it comes to decisions about when and how schools should reopen, Biden’s plan is not a one-size-fits-all.
Biden’s plan is in line with the approach he has taken in recent days, suggesting that school districts are confronting different scenarios and should respond accordingly. It’s a notably different message from the one being sent by the White House, which argues that science and economic well-being dictate that all schools should reopen on time. To accommodate that kind of flexibility, Biden’s plan calls for the creation of a Safer Schools Best Practices Clearinghouse to “help schools and child care providers across the country and around the world share approaches, protocols, and tools for reopening safely.” In addition, Biden’s plan calls for Congress to appropriate $92 billion in additional funding for schools to do things like “reconfigure classrooms, kitchens, and other spaces, improve ventilation, and take other necessary steps to make it easier to physically distance and minimize risk of spread.” If schools can’t reopen safely, they won’t, according to the Biden plan. “You’ve got to make sure you’re not putting them back in the circumstance where they’re going to become ill with covid and/or bring that covid back home,” he said. “Many of them live in multigenerational homes. So they come home with covid and they may not get seriously ill, but their mom their grandmom, their grandpop — somebody ends up dying. “So we end up with a circumstance where you’ve got to try to figure out what the mix is that you can afford to do,” he said. On Wednesday, Biden issued a challenge to Trump. The Democratic leaders are ready to get this done. Where is the president? Why isn’t he working on this? We need emergency support funding for our schools — and we need it now. Mr. President, that is your job. That’s what you should be focused on— getting our kids back to school. Not whipping up fear and division — not inciting violence in our streets. Get off Twitter. Invite the leaders of Congress to the Oval Office and do what you boast about –but never seem to actually do — negotiate a deal to help someone other than yourself. Trump will not accept that challenge, which is why the safety of this country’s children is on the ballot this November.


washingtonmonthly--2020-09-03--America Needs International Observers to Monitor the 2020 Elections

The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe ( OSCE ) already has a 500-person delegation slated to monitor America ’ s process .
It should crank up those numbers significantly , especially since OSCE recently raised concerns around November ’ s “ most challenging ” election .
America ’ s 2020 presidential election process is in question at home , too .
Even before the first vote has been cast , both parties are challenging the outcome .
President Trump regularly raises the specter of mail-in fraud and illegal votes .
Hillary Clinton has warned Joe Biden not to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ polls , overzealous pols , or online reporting might declare a premature or pre-emptive Trump victory .
Clearly , the stage is set for one of the nastiest post-election moments in U.S. history .
Even—especially—during a pandemic .
Now is the time for all good nations to come to the aid of our country .
America has actively engaged in this nonpartisan work abroad , with both the International Republican Institute ( IRI ) and the National Democratic Institute ( NDI ) upholding high electoral expectations .
International election observers coming to the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ IRI and NDI standards and practices .
Atlanta ’ s Carter Center is frequently on the international election monitoring circuit , having observed 111 elections in 39 countries since 1989 .
Its check on foreign electoral behavior brought to light , for example , issues in the “ deeply flawed ” process in Nicaragua ’ s 2011 elections .
As a foreign correspondent , I , too , have been an overseas election observer .
First , in Hungary in 1990 and later that year in Czechoslovakia .
In Prague , I followed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ during that country ’ s first free elections in 44 years .
I met voters in the capital and in the less glamorous countryside , far from Prague ’ s medieval castle-and-storybook Old Town , in places with polluting heavy industry and few employment prospects .
It ’ s not glamorous work .
Urban centers are easy to cover , but second cities and rural areas are tougher .
I would show up unannounced , often unwelcome , with a permit , ID and an interpreter .
I noted the length of lines @ @ @ @ @ @ @ or scared .
The polling places were school classrooms and gyms or local offices .
Those venues became sacred for a day .
Old men and women approached these buildings with solemnity .
They were mostly unwilling to share how they voted , trained over time to keep their opinions and preferences private .
The democratic experience there was new for most .
It was humbling to see what people sometimes endured to make their voices heard .
In 1990 , they went to neglected public buildings with peeling paint and redolent with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cigarette smoke and the lingering piquancy of sustaining hot meals .
I talked to domestic and foreign monitors who tracked voters , checked registers and followed locked ballot boxes from guarded tables to counting sites .
This was all done before the era of webcams and citizen journalists .
Poll workers and outsiders were counted on to spot irregularities .
Foreign observers like myself added a layer of security to elections .
International election monitoring is not perfect , but it is a lot better than nothing—and some countries , like Belarus , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a sham election .
Official “ results ” gave President Alexander Lukashenko a final tally of nearly 80 percent .
He did not allow foreign press or OSCE election monitoring .
Lukashenko “ won ” his sixth term by using the power of incumbency to leverage the symbols of state power while denigrating and punishing his opponents .
He expertly gamed a system he controlled , and now thousands of street protesters want to overturn this electoral travesty .
America is not Belarus , of course , but every country should welcome a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ nations need to follow America ’ s historically important role in guaranteeing free and fair elections worldwide .
They need to assure that America practices what it preaches .
Democracies everywhere must certify this year ’ s election was above board .
After all , every democratic country has skin in this game .
Please come soon .
Consider this an open invitation .

The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) already has a 500-person delegation slated to monitor America’s process. It should crank up those numbers significantly, especially since OSCE recently raised concerns around November’s “most challenging” election.
America’s 2020 presidential election process is in question at home, too. Even before the first vote has been cast, both parties are challenging the outcome.
President Trump regularly raises the specter of mail-in fraud and illegal votes. Hillary Clinton has warned Joe Biden not to concede on Election Night, when exit polls, overzealous pols, or online reporting might declare a premature or pre-emptive Trump victory.
Clearly, the stage is set for one of the nastiest post-election moments in U.S. history. Even—especially—during a pandemic. Now is the time for all good nations to come to the aid of our country.
America has actively engaged in this nonpartisan work abroad, with both the International Republican Institute (IRI) and the National Democratic Institute (NDI) upholding high electoral expectations. International election observers coming to the United States this year should closely follow IRI and NDI standards and practices.
Atlanta’s Carter Center is frequently on the international election monitoring circuit, having observed 111 elections in 39 countries since 1989. Its check on foreign electoral behavior brought to light, for example, issues in the “deeply flawed” process in Nicaragua’s 2011 elections.
As a foreign correspondent, I, too, have been an overseas election observer. First, in Hungary in 1990 and later that year in Czechoslovakia. In Prague, I followed presidential candidate Václav Havel’s campaign during that country’s first free elections in 44 years. I met voters in the capital and in the less glamorous countryside, far from Prague’s medieval castle-and-storybook Old Town, in places with polluting heavy industry and few employment prospects.


washingtonmonthly--2020-09-03--Trump and Barr Issue a Threat to Blue Cities and States

Ronald Reagan launched his 1980 presidential bid in Philadelphia , Mississippi , not far from where three civil rights workers were murdered .
His “ states rights ” call was a racial dog whistle .
I believe in state ’ s rights ; I believe in people doing as much as they can for themselves at the community level and at the private level .
And I believe that we ’ ve distorted the balance of our government today by giving powers that were never intended in the constitution to that federal establishment .
And if I do get the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I ’ m going to devote myself to trying to reorder those priorities and to restore to the states and local communities those functions which properly belong there .
Not long after Reagan spoke , the conservative legal group , the Federalist Society was formed by students at some of the nation ’ s top law schools .
As their web site documents , “ It is founded on the principles that the state exists to preserve freedom , that the separation of governmental powers is central to our Constitution , and that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the judiciary to say what the law is , not what it should be.
” It soon became one of the most powerful legal organizations in the country , as the center of conservative thought regarding state ’ s rights .
But as Zachary Roth wrote in The Great Suppression , once Republicans realized that they were drifting into becoming a minority party , they began to abandon those principles .
That was demonstrated by their embrace of something called “ preemption.
” The tactic was originally developed by tobacco companies to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ major cities in deeply red states became more Democratic , state legislatures began passing laws to override ordinances adopted by cities on issues such as minimum wage increases , gun laws , and bans on fracking .
The whole concept of local control was thrown out the window .
Now , even as Trump and McConnell rely on the Federalist Society to provide them with the names of extremists to put on the federal courts , the president is demonstrating that the commitment to state ’ s rights was a lie all along @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on Wednesday that would cut off federal funds to “ anarchist jurisdictions.
” The memo directly names Seattle , Portland , New York City , and Washington D.C.and tasks the attorney general with identifying other “ state and local jurisdictions that have permitted violence and the destruction of property to persist and have refused to undertake reasonable measures to counteract these criminal activities ( anarchist jurisdictions ) .
” While it includes a list of how those jurisdictions are defined , they gave Barr plenty of room to maneuver with the inclusion of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ General deems appropriate.
” What we have is the Trump administration preparing to deny federal funds to cities and states that don ’ t toe their line of viewing protesters as a “ mob ” that must be controlled via dominance .
In other words , it is the direct opposite of what the Republican Party has claimed to embrace .
This memorandum has all the markings of being dreamed up by Attorney General Bill Barr .
He continues to rail against anarchists ( ie , Antifa ) as the violent actors behind @ @ @ @ @ @ @ he actually provided cover for the conspiracy theory being peddled by Trump about Antifa on airplanes .
Last December , Barr told a group of prosecutors and police that if communities didn ’ t show enough respect and support to law enforcement , “ they might find themselves without the police protection they need.
” Given this most recent memorandum , it appears that the attorney general will set out to determine which communities aren ’ t doing enough to support law enforcement and use that to block federal funds .
Democrats are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ unconstitutional and nothing more than a political ploy .
As Barr has demonstrated , he isn ’ t particularly constrained by how we ’ ve traditionally interpreted the Constitution .
His assumption is that the president and the attorney general get to make up their own rules .
Joe Biden and Kamala Harris actually agree that federal funds intended for police departments shouldn ’ t be conditional .
That clarifies yet another choice on the ballot this November : threats , dominance , and chaos versus listening , accountability , and justice .

Ronald Reagan launched his 1980 presidential bid in Philadelphia, Mississippi, not far from where three civil rights workers were murdered. His “states rights” call was a racial dog whistle.
I believe in state’s rights; I believe in people doing as much as they can for themselves at the community level and at the private level. And I believe that we’ve distorted the balance of our government today by giving powers that were never intended in the constitution to that federal establishment. And if I do get the job I’m looking for, I’m going to devote myself to trying to reorder those priorities and to restore to the states and local communities those functions which properly belong there.
Not long after Reagan spoke, the conservative legal group, the Federalist Society was formed by students at some of the nation’s top law schools. As their web site documents, “It is founded on the principles that the state exists to preserve freedom, that the separation of governmental powers is central to our Constitution, and that it is emphatically the province and duty of the judiciary to say what the law is, not what it should be.” It soon became one of the most powerful legal organizations in the country, as the center of conservative thought regarding state’s rights.
But as Zachary Roth wrote in The Great Suppression, once Republicans realized that they were drifting into becoming a minority party, they began to abandon those principles. That was demonstrated by their embrace of something called “preemption.” The tactic was originally developed by tobacco companies to overturn local anti-smoking ordinances. But as major cities in deeply red states became more Democratic, state legislatures began passing laws to override ordinances adopted by cities on issues such as minimum wage increases, gun laws, and bans on fracking. The whole concept of local control was thrown out the window.
Now, even as Trump and McConnell rely on the Federalist Society to provide them with the names of extremists to put on the federal courts, the president is demonstrating that the commitment to state’s rights was a lie all along. The White House released a memorandum on Wednesday that would cut off federal funds to “anarchist jurisdictions.”
My Administration will not allow Federal tax dollars to fund cities that allow themselves to deteriorate into lawless zones. To ensure that Federal funds are neither unduly wasted nor spent in a manner that directly violates our Government’s promise to protect life, liberty, and property, it is imperative that the Federal Government review the use of Federal funds by jurisdictions that permit anarchy, violence, and destruction in America’s cities.
The memo directly names Seattle, Portland, New York City, and Washington D.C.and tasks the attorney general with identifying other “state and local jurisdictions that have permitted violence and the destruction of property to persist and have refused to undertake reasonable measures to counteract these criminal activities (anarchist jurisdictions).” While it includes a list of how those jurisdictions are defined, they gave Barr plenty of room to maneuver with the inclusion of “any other related factors the Attorney General deems appropriate.”
What we have is the Trump administration preparing to deny federal funds to cities and states that don’t toe their line of viewing protesters as a “mob” that must be controlled via dominance. In other words, it is the direct opposite of what the Republican Party has claimed to embrace.
This memorandum has all the markings of being dreamed up by Attorney General Bill Barr. He continues to rail against anarchists (ie, Antifa) as the violent actors behind the police protests. On Wednesday, he actually provided cover for the conspiracy theory being peddled by Trump about Antifa on airplanes.
Last December, Barr told a group of prosecutors and police that if communities didn’t show enough respect and support to law enforcement, “they might find themselves without the police protection they need.” Given this most recent memorandum, it appears that the attorney general will set out to determine which communities aren’t doing enough to support law enforcement and use that to block federal funds.
Democrats are already weighing in about this action being unconstitutional and nothing more than a political ploy.
Evan Hollander, a spokesman for the Democratic majority of the House Appropriations Committee, said Mr. Trump’s directive “intrudes on Congress’ power of the purse, would never stand up in court and is nothing more than a distraction from the fact that Americans are less safe under the Trump administration.”
As Barr has demonstrated, he isn’t particularly constrained by how we’ve traditionally interpreted the Constitution. His assumption is that the president and the attorney general get to make up their own rules.
Joe Biden and Kamala Harris actually agree that federal funds intended for police departments shouldn’t be conditional.
That clarifies yet another choice on the ballot this November: threats, dominance, and chaos versus listening, accountability, and justice.


washingtonmonthly--2020-09-03--Killer Soup? Vote Twice? Trump’s Crackpot Ideas Will Get Us Killed

The President of the United States is warning of commercial planes “ completely loaded with thugs wearing…dark uniforms ” and the dangers of canned soup in the hands of protestors .
On Wednesday , he recommended that his supporters in North Carolina vote-by-mail and then attempt to vote again in person , which is a crime .
My ten-year-old son has taken to pointing at these stories on the television and laughing in disbelief , “ Look !
Look at what this moron said now !
Watch out for ninjas with the Cream of Mushroom !
You can ’ t @ @ @ @ @ @ @ idiot !
” That ’ s where my household is with this spectacle .
Maybe in some other households , it passes muster or simply goes unnoticed .
You can ’ t tell from the polls , though , which look the same as they did before the Democratic and Republican National Conventions , and the same as before Trump began retweeting conspiracy theories about a secret coup attempt by a “ well-funded network of anarchists.
” According to Acting Secretary of Homeland Security , the Justice Department is now investigating protesters on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by shadowy figures .
Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky asks , “ Who are these people ?
Who paid for their hotel rooms ?
Who flew them in ?
” Ever since 2017 , when a voting integrity commission was launched to “ explain ” how Trump had lost the popular vote , the government has been bent and twisted to accommodate the president ’ s insanity .
What it won ’ t do is actually protect the integrity of our elections : House Democratic leaders on Wednesday criticized the Department of Homeland @ @ @ @ @ @ @ draft intelligence bulletin warning law enforcement agencies of a Russian effort to spread disinformation about Joe Biden ’ s mental health .
The July notice from the DHS Office of Intelligence and Analysis , which warned of a Russian plan to promote “ allegations about the poor mental health ” of Biden , was never released to federal , state and local law enforcement , after a senior DHS official raised concerns about the bulletin over email , as ABC News first reported .
Instead of acting on the warning of Russian interference @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was buried for “ poor context.
” In an appearance on Fox News , acting Homeland Security Secretary Chad Wolf confirmed that the bulletin was withheld , calling it “ a very poorly written report.
” “ I had questions about it when I talked to career officials … in the office that produced the report .
They also had questions about it , ” he said .
“ They ’ re hard at work on rewriting that report , putting it in better context .
I hope to see that record out @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have been promoting “ allegations about the poor mental health ” of Joe Biden , so it was a little embarrassing to realize that this was the Russians ’ idea .
Over 180,000 Americans have died of COVID-19 .
In fact , Trump is now hoping that more people get infected so that we can reach herd immunity .
For this reason , the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has been instructed to change its guidelines and not test asymptomatic people .
This is the clearest example of how crackpot ideas get @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Trump is in the process of killing the country , too .
Any ten year old should be able to understand this .

The President of the United States is warning of commercial planes “completely loaded with thugs wearing…dark uniforms” and the dangers of canned soup in the hands of protestors. On Wednesday, he recommended that his supporters in North Carolina vote-by-mail and then attempt to vote again in person, which is a crime.
My ten-year-old son has taken to pointing at these stories on the television and laughing in disbelief, “Look! Look at what this moron said now! Watch out for ninjas with the Cream of Mushroom! You can’t vote twice in an election, you idiot!”
That’s where my household is with this spectacle. Maybe in some other households, it passes muster or simply goes unnoticed.
You can’t tell from the polls, though, which look the same as they did before the Democratic and Republican National Conventions, and the same as before Trump began retweeting conspiracy theories about a secret coup attempt by a “well-funded network of anarchists.”
According to Acting Secretary of Homeland Security, the Justice Department is now investigating protesters on the theory that they are secretly funded by shadowy figures. Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky asks, “Who are these people? Who paid for their hotel rooms? Who flew them in?”
Ever since 2017, when a voting integrity commission was launched to “explain” how Trump had lost the popular vote, the government has been bent and twisted to accommodate the president’s insanity. What it won’t do is actually protect the integrity of our elections:
House Democratic leaders on Wednesday criticized the Department of Homeland Security for withholding the release of a draft intelligence bulletin warning law enforcement agencies of a Russian effort to spread disinformation about Joe Biden’s mental health. The July notice from the DHS Office of Intelligence and Analysis, which warned of a Russian plan to promote “allegations about the poor mental health” of Biden, was never released to federal, state and local law enforcement, after a senior DHS official raised concerns about the bulletin over email, as ABC News first reported.
Instead of acting on the warning of Russian interference in the 2020 election, the report was buried for “poor context.”
In an appearance on Fox News, acting Homeland Security Secretary Chad Wolf confirmed that the bulletin was withheld, calling it “a very poorly written report.” “I had questions about it when I talked to career officials … in the office that produced the report. They also had questions about it,” he said. “They’re hard at work on rewriting that report, putting it in better context. I hope to see that record out soon.”
Republicans and their media allies have been promoting “allegations about the poor mental health” of Joe Biden, so it was a little embarrassing to realize that this was the Russians’ idea.
Over 180,000 Americans have died of COVID-19. In fact, Trump is now hoping that more people get infected so that we can reach herd immunity. For this reason, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has been instructed to change its guidelines and not test asymptomatic people.
This is the clearest example of how crackpot ideas get people killed. At the moment, Trump is in the process of killing the country, too. Any ten year old should be able to understand this.


washingtonmonthly--2020-09-01--Trump’s Attack on Booker Would Be Laughable If It Wasn’t So Racist

During his interview with Laura Ingraham on Monday night , Donald Trump revived his racist meme about how Joe Biden and Democrats would destroy life for women in the suburbs .
So you have this beautiful community in the suburbs , including women , right ?
Women , they want security .
I ended where they build low income housing projects right in the middle of your neighborhood .
I ended it .
If Biden gets in , he already said it ’ s going to go at a much higher rate than ever before .
And you know who @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of it ?
Cory Booker .
That ’ s going to be nice , OK ?
Just to be clear , Trump is referring to the Affirmatively Furthering Fair Housing rule , which was an Obama-era attempt to continue the implementation of the 1968 Fair Housing Act .
The rule , which was finalized in July 2015 and has been in limbo since Obama left office , is designed to push “ meaningful actions , in addition to combating discrimination , that overcome patterns of segregation and foster inclusive communities free from barriers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ protected characteristics.
” Put simply , it was designed to help state and local officials provide better access to opportunity , following the original 1968 guideline .
So why has Trump repeatedly said that Cory Booker would be the one to implement that rule ?
( Senators don ’ t implement rules , of course . )
It could be because some conservatives are apoplectic over the HOME Act that the New Jersey Democrat is championing in the Senate .
The Housing Opportunity Mobility and Equity Act would create incentives and use some @ @ @ @ @ @ @ least make plans for how to open up more housing for renters .
It ’ s a modest measure and it ’ s also sponsored by plenty of other Democratic senators who aren ’ t African-American .
But of course , Trump has no idea what the HOME Act is .
What makes Booker stand out in Trump ’ s mind is that he is a Black Democratic man .
If Trump had looked beyond Booker ’ s skin , he would have found what Rebecca Buck reported about the senator when he @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Sen. Cory Booker has promised to run a relentlessly positive and unifying campaign , …Whether Democratic voters think a candidate wrapped in a message of love has the mettle to beat Trump might be one the fundamental questions around Booker ’ s campaign .
As Booker conceded himself following his campaign launch , “ Love ain ’ t easy.
” But it ’ s a theme that has underpinned his political identity for many years , dating back to his time in Newark .
Or perhaps the president would have heard snippets @ @ @ @ @ @ @ presidential debates .
Whether you agree with Booker ’ s approach on fair housing and a love-based campaign , the last thing you can accuse him of is being the racist stereotype of a scary Black man out to destroy the white suburbs .
But Booker isn ’ t always focused on love and unity .
The former mayor of Newark is heartbroken over our response to what is happening to African Americans in this country .
Martin Luther King , Jr. once dreamed of a country where we would all be judged @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The President of the United States judges people by the color of their skin , ignoring the content of their character .
That is the definition of racist .

During his interview with Laura Ingraham on Monday night, Donald Trump revived his racist meme about how Joe Biden and Democrats would destroy life for women in the suburbs.
So you have this beautiful community in the suburbs, including women, right? Women, they want security. I ended where they build low income housing projects right in the middle of your neighborhood. I ended it. If Biden gets in, he already said it’s going to go at a much higher rate than ever before. And you know who’s going to be in charge of it? Cory Booker. That’s going to be nice, OK?
Just to be clear, Trump is referring to the Affirmatively Furthering Fair Housing rule, which was an Obama-era attempt to continue the implementation of the 1968 Fair Housing Act.
The rule, which was finalized in July 2015 and has been in limbo since Obama left office, is designed to push “meaningful actions, in addition to combating discrimination, that overcome patterns of segregation and foster inclusive communities free from barriers that restrict access to opportunity based on protected characteristics.” Put simply, it was designed to help state and local officials provide better access to opportunity, following the original 1968 guideline.
So why has Trump repeatedly said that Cory Booker would be the one to implement that rule? (Senators don’t implement rules, of course.) It could be because some conservatives are apoplectic over the HOME Act that the New Jersey Democrat is championing in the Senate. The Housing Opportunity Mobility and Equity Act would create incentives and use some sticks to get suburban communities to at least make plans for how to open up more housing for renters. It’s a modest measure and it’s also sponsored by plenty of other Democratic senators who aren’t African-American. But of course, Trump has no idea what the HOME Act is. What makes Booker stand out in Trump’s mind is that he is a Black Democratic man.
If Trump had looked beyond Booker’s skin, he would have found what Rebecca Buck reported about the senator when he first entered the presidential race in Iowa.
Sen. Cory Booker has promised to run a relentlessly positive and unifying campaign,…Whether Democratic voters think a candidate wrapped in a message of love has the mettle to beat Trump might be one the fundamental questions around Booker’s campaign. As Booker conceded himself following his campaign launch, “Love ain’t easy.” But it’s a theme that has underpinned his political identity for many years, dating back to his time in Newark.
Or perhaps the president would have heard snippets like this from Booker during the Democratic presidential debates.
Whether you agree with Booker’s approach on fair housing and a love-based campaign, the last thing you can accuse him of is being the racist stereotype of a scary Black man out to destroy the white suburbs. But Booker isn’t always focused on love and unity.
The former mayor of Newark is heartbroken over our response to what is happening to African Americans in this country.
Martin Luther King, Jr. once dreamed of a country where we would all be judged by the content of our character. The President of the United States judges people by the color of their skin, ignoring the content of their character. That is the definition of racist.


washingtonmonthly--2020-09-04--What Should Happen With the Hate Trump Has Unleashed?

John Oliver ’ s most recent Last Week Tonight is worth watching , including footage of a 2018 news conference with Kenosha Sheriff David Beth .
Reacting to five Black teenagers who had been caught shoplifting , Beth pontificates that we need to lock this generation up and throw away the key before they start reproducing .
Oliver is right to compare that to 1940s Germany .
But at the end of that clip , Beth suggests that he ’ s “ not saying anything different than most people in society are thinking , but they ’ re afraid to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are talking about when they refer to “ political correctness ” or “ cancel culture.
” I am reminded of what the blogger Nezua wrote at The Unapologetic Mexican in response to a comment from Glenn Greenwald about “ speech rules.
” In this analysis ( or this part of his post at least ) the problem is the various unwritten speech rules .
But guess what ?
There really aren ’ t any .
There are just poor attitudes we keep about people who look different .
Or who we ’ ve @ @ @ @ @ @ @ And there is a “ White ” attitude of deciding for everyone else how they should live , be , self-identify , and do many other things .
There are old slurs and old tropes that hurt people .
These are the things that are flushed out when people speak : attitudes , thoughts , beliefs , manners of speaking that hint at lurking attitudes .
People avoid talking about race because they are scared of exposing their thoughts and views on race…They are not afraid of “ unwritten speech rules.
” They @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and feel will cause them to be ridiculed or ostracized in public , or that they may see a part of themselves they have to feel bad about .
So they keep the potential to themselves .
But if we keep the focus on Speech Rules , we miss the opportunity to change ourselves .
Donald Trump has lead by example in chucking “ speech rules.
” Christopher Orr talked about that as the reason the president is so beloved by his most ardent supporters .
Here is what Orr suggests is happening @ @ @ @ @ @ @ speaks and tweets : It is almost always interpreted–and is clearly meant to be interpreted–as “ I ’ d never speak/tweet that way because THOSE ARE BAD THINGS TO SAY , AND I DISAPPROVE OF THEM.
” But what if the unspoken 2nd half is often or even usually something closer to “ I ’ d never speak/tweet that way , BUT BOY WOULD I LOVE TO IF I COULD GET AWAY WITH IT.
” As Orr suggests , David Frum made a similar point in writing about Trump ’ s speech at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ expatiated on the greatness of the American past .
“ Our American ancestors sailed across the perilous ocean to build a new life on a new continent , ” he began .
Almost any other candidate , even any other Republican , would feel some need to acknowledge the experience of Native Americans and enslaved Africans , to place a question mark over the concept of wild frontier and open range—the literal phrases in his text .
But Trump knows that millions of his fellow Americans are sick and tired of having to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ people .
He wants them to know that he doesn ’ t care either .
That ’ s what they love about him .
That is exactly what Biden was talking about when he said that , “ If I ’ ve learned anything during the time of Donald Trump being president it ’ s this—hate never goes away , it just hides .
And when leaders give it oxygen , as Trump has done , it comes roaring back.
” If it is true that hate never goes away , it raises @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to air it out in the open or send it back into hiding .
Here ’ s what Ibram Kendi wrote about that : [ Trump ] held up a mirror to American society , and it has reflected back a grotesque image that many people had until now refused to see : an image not just of the racism still coursing through the country , but also of the reflex to deny that reality .
Though it was hardly his intention , no president has caused more Americans to stop denying the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s racism—and that of his allies and enablers—has been too blatant for Americans to ignore or deny .
And just as the 1850s paved the way for the revolution against slavery , Trump ’ s presidency has paved the way for a revolution against racism .
Personally , I ’ m not as optimistic as Kendi when it comes to the possibility of a “ revolution against racism.
” I suspect that once Trump is finally out of office , we ’ ll revel in the return of normalcy .
The good @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is that it happens because , as a culture , we agree that racism is wrong .
People hide it because they recognize that racism is taboo .
The bad part is that , as Nezua wrote , focusing on speech rules stops us from changing .
Eventually , someone like Donald Trump comes along to exploit the hate .
I am reminded of how former Attorney General Eric Holder was pilloried on the right for suggesting that we are a nation of cowards when it comes to talking about race .
He @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with political correctness .
Though this nation has proudly thought of itself as an ethnic melting pot , in things racial we have always been and continue to be , in too many ways , essentially a nation of cowards .
Though race related issues continue to occupy a significant portion of our political discussion , and though there remain many unresolved racial issues in this nation , we , average Americans , simply do not talk enough with each other about race…We know , by “ American instinct ” and by learned @ @ @ @ @ @ @ limits and that to explore them risks , at best embarrassment , and , at worst , the questioning of one ’ s character .
The whole point of Holder ’ s speech was to suggest that “ if we are to make progress in this area we must feel comfortable enough with one another , and tolerant enough of each other , to have frank conversations about the racial matters that continue to divide us.
” Trump has no interest in a frank conversation about racial matters .
But to simply allow @ @ @ @ @ @ @ slide back into hiding would be a grave mistake .

John Oliver’s most recent Last Week Tonight is worth watching, including footage of a 2018 news conference with Kenosha Sheriff David Beth.
Reacting to five Black teenagers who had been caught shoplifting, Beth pontificates that we need to lock this generation up and throw away the key before they start reproducing. Oliver is right to compare that to 1940s Germany.
But at the end of that clip, Beth suggests that he’s “not saying anything different than most people in society are thinking, but they’re afraid to say it.” That is what conservatives are talking about when they refer to “political correctness” or “cancel culture.” I am reminded of what the blogger Nezua wrote at The Unapologetic Mexican in response to a comment from Glenn Greenwald about “speech rules.”
In this analysis (or this part of his post at least) the problem is the various unwritten speech rules. But guess what? There really aren’t any. There are just poor attitudes we keep about people who look different. Or who we’ve been taught to think of differently. And there is a “White” attitude of deciding for everyone else how they should live, be, self-identify, and do many other things. There are old slurs and old tropes that hurt people. These are the things that are flushed out when people speak: attitudes, thoughts, beliefs, manners of speaking that hint at lurking attitudes. People avoid talking about race because they are scared of exposing their thoughts and views on race…They are not afraid of “unwritten speech rules.” They are afraid that what they really think and feel will cause them to be ridiculed or ostracized in public, or that they may see a part of themselves they have to feel bad about. So they keep the potential to themselves. But if we keep the focus on Speech Rules, we miss the opportunity to change ourselves.
Donald Trump has lead by example in chucking “speech rules.” Christopher Orr talked about that as the reason the president is so beloved by his most ardent supporters. Here is what Orr suggests is happening when they complain about the way Trump speaks and tweets:
It is almost always interpreted–and is clearly meant to be interpreted–as “I’d never speak/tweet that way because THOSE ARE BAD THINGS TO SAY, AND I DISAPPROVE OF THEM.” But what if the unspoken 2nd half is often or even usually something closer to “I’d never speak/tweet that way, BUT BOY WOULD I LOVE TO IF I COULD GET AWAY WITH IT.”
As Orr suggests, David Frum made a similar point in writing about Trump’s speech at the Republican Convention.
Mid-speech, Trump expatiated on the greatness of the American past. “Our American ancestors sailed across the perilous ocean to build a new life on a new continent,” he began. Almost any other candidate, even any other Republican, would feel some need to acknowledge the experience of Native Americans and enslaved Africans, to place a question mark over the concept of wild frontier and open range—the literal phrases in his text. But Trump knows that millions of his fellow Americans are sick and tired of having to pretend to care about Black and Indigenous people. He wants them to know that he doesn’t care either. That’s what they love about him.
That is exactly what Biden was talking about when he said that, “If I’ve learned anything during the time of Donald Trump being president it’s this—hate never goes away, it just hides. And when leaders give it oxygen, as Trump has done, it comes roaring back.”
If it is true that hate never goes away, it raises the question of whether it is better to air it out in the open or send it back into hiding. Here’s what Ibram Kendi wrote about that:
[Trump] held up a mirror to American society, and it has reflected back a grotesque image that many people had until now refused to see: an image not just of the racism still coursing through the country, but also of the reflex to deny that reality. Though it was hardly his intention, no president has caused more Americans to stop denying the existence of racism than Donald Trump… Trump’s racism—and that of his allies and enablers—has been too blatant for Americans to ignore or deny. And just as the 1850s paved the way for the revolution against slavery, Trump’s presidency has paved the way for a revolution against racism.
Personally, I’m not as optimistic as Kendi when it comes to the possibility of a “revolution against racism.” I suspect that once Trump is finally out of office, we’ll revel in the return of normalcy.
The good thing about hate going back into hiding is that it happens because, as a culture, we agree that racism is wrong. People hide it because they recognize that racism is taboo. The bad part is that, as Nezua wrote, focusing on speech rules stops us from changing. Eventually, someone like Donald Trump comes along to exploit the hate.
I am reminded of how former Attorney General Eric Holder was pilloried on the right for suggesting that we are a nation of cowards when it comes to talking about race. He was basically suggesting that we do away with political correctness.
Though this nation has proudly thought of itself as an ethnic melting pot, in things racial we have always been and continue to be, in too many ways, essentially a nation of cowards. Though race related issues continue to occupy a significant portion of our political discussion, and though there remain many unresolved racial issues in this nation, we, average Americans, simply do not talk enough with each other about race…We know, by “American instinct” and by learned behavior, that certain subjects are off limits and that to explore them risks, at best embarrassment, and, at worst, the questioning of one’s character.
The whole point of Holder’s speech was to suggest that “if we are to make progress in this area we must feel comfortable enough with one another, and tolerant enough of each other, to have frank conversations about the racial matters that continue to divide us.”
Trump has no interest in a frank conversation about racial matters. But to simply allow the hatred that has been exposed to slide back into hiding would be a grave mistake.


washingtonmonthly--2020-09-04--White Voters Are Turning Away from Donald Trump

Donald Trump ’ s heated racial appeals betray his growing political problem with white voters .
Trump is running far behind Joe Biden in national polls because , according to data from the Pew Research Center , his 20 percentage-point advantage with white voters in 2016 ( 57 percent to 37 percent ) dwindled to nine points by mid-August of this year ( 54 percent to 45 percent ) .
Trump ’ s deficit with Hispanic voters is actually less than in 2016 , down from 38 to 28 percentage-points ( 35 percent to 63 percent ) .
When it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s held steady since 2016 .
He faces an 80 percentage-point gap in support from Black voters ( 8 percent to 88 percent ) , as he did last time , and his 38-point deficit with Asian voters ( 27 percent to 65 percent ) is also unchanged .
Crunch the numbers and in a fair election , Biden would beat the president by at least 10 million votes today and carry four of the five swing states Trump won in 2016—Pennsylvania , Michigan , North Carolina and Florida Trump would hold @ @ @ @ @ @ @ This assessment does not rest on typical polls of 800 or 1,200 people .
People ’ s current preferences for Trump versus Biden by race and ethnicity and the 2016 vote by race and ethnicity are drawn from the Pew Research Center ’ s gold-standard survey of 11,000 registered voters.The projected vote this year by race and ethnicity also rests on voter registration and turnout data from the 3.5 million households who take part in the Census Bureau ’ s American Community Survey , its annual comprehensive measure of the population .
Combining @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lens on the electorate .
And the electorate is not happy .
Drill down into woes with white voters : They provided about 90 percent of his support in a very close 2016 race .
He can not afford to lose any of them in November .
On top of that , the most recent Census Bureau data ( 2018 ) show that since 2016 , the absolute number of white Americans registered to vote also has fallen substantially .
Trump ’ s law-and-order outbursts and clumsy efforts to demonize Biden may excite @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ignore the top concerns of both white and minority voters—the high and rising death toll from the pandemic and the three-fold increase in unemployment .
Trump ’ s 2016 victory rested on white Americans who dominated the 2016 electorate .
Back then , 114.2 million whites were registered to vote , compared to 41.0 million Black , Asian , and Hispanic Americans .
But from 2016 to 2018 , the universe of registered white voters contracted by 4.1 million votes , while the ranks of registered Black , Asian , and Hispanic voters @ @ @ @ @ @ @ data also show that the number of registered college graduates , one of Biden ’ s strongest groups , increased by nearly 2 million to 60.4 million voters , while Trump ’ s strongest group , registered voters with high school diplomas or less , also contracted by 4.1 million to 46.2 million .
And if you register to vote but odds are you will turn out to vote .
In 2016 , 88 percent of registered white voters cast ballots in the presidential election , as did 87 percent of registered Black @ @ @ @ @ @ @ voters , and 83 percent of registered Hispanic voters .
By contrast , the latest registration data show that 71 percent of eligible white voters were registered to vote in 2018 ( down from 74 percent in 2016 ) , compared to 64 percent of eligible Black Americans , 5 percent of eligible Asian Americans , and 54 percent of eligible Hispanic Americans .
The decline in white voter registration , Trump ’ s reduced support from white voters , and Biden ’ s overwhelming backing from minority Americans together present a daunting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ We can project the likely vote if a fair election happened today .
Using the 2018 voter registration data by race and ethnicity , the 2016 voting rates by race and ethnicity , and Trump and Biden ’ s support in mid-August by race and ethnicity , the outcome is catastrophic for the president.He would be expected to carry white voters by an 8.8 million vote margin while losing Blacks by 13.4 million votes , Asians by 1.8 million votes , and Hispanics by 3.9 million votes .
In this accounting , Biden @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a fair election today would be nearly 10.1 million votes , in a 53.9-percent-to-46.1-percent race ( Table below , Margin-1 ) .
If we distribute the small numbers of non-responders to the Pew Research Center ’ s survey , Biden would be expected to top Trump ’ s total number of votes in a fair election today by 10.6 million votes , in a 54.0-percent-to-46.0-percent race .
Of course , a presidential election is a competition for electoral votes , and not a popularity contest .
So , we can apply the same @ @ @ @ @ @ @ won by Trump in 2016—Florida , Michigan , North Carolina , Pennsylvania , and Wisconsin .
We use each state ’ s 2018 voter registration data by race and ethnicity , each state ’ s 2016 voter turnout rates by race and ethnicity , and the Pew Research Center survey of support for Trump and Biden by race and ethnicity .
The results show Biden today winning four of the five swing states—all but Wisconsin—in a fair election today .
In Florida , Biden would be expected to win by about 900,000 votes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ voters by a 485,000 margin , while Biden wins Florida Black voters by a 932,000 margin , Florida Hispanics by 402,000 votes , and Florida Asians by 49,00 votes .
North Carolina is also a wipeout for Trump : He would be expected to carry the state ’ s white vote by a 296,000 margin and lose the state by 535,000 votes , because Biden is projected to carry Black North Carolina voters by a margin of 773,000 votes , the state ’ s Asian voters by 27,735 votes , and its Hispanic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Pennsylvania are closer , because 85 percent of the expected voters in those states are white , compared to 75 percent in North Carolina and 67 percent in Florida .
So , in a fair election today , Biden would be expected to carry Michigan by 204,000 votes—by winning the state ’ s minority voters by 564,000 votes and losing Michigan white voters by a 360,000-vote margin .
Similarly , Biden today would be expected to carry Pennsylvania by 106,000 votes despite Trump winning the state ’ s white voters by a 432,000-vote @ @ @ @ @ @ @ margin from minority voters would be 538,000 votes .
Wisconsin is the only swing state that Trump should be expected to carry today in a fair election , primarily because whites comprise more than 91 percent of the state ’ s expected voters .
By this analysis , Biden would carry Wisconsin ’ s minority voters by a 132,600-vote margin and lose the state by 91,000 votes because Trump would win Wisconsin white voters by a 224,000-vote margin .
But in a fair election , the Biden-Harris ticket would not need Wisconsin ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ In fact , in a fair election today , Biden would be expected to defeat Trump with support from 40 percent to 41 percent of white voters , albeit a narrower win .
At 45 percent support , it would be a blowout .
Trump ’ s only seeming opening for a second term involves winning back a significant share of the white voters he has lost today over the mounting deaths and economic fallout from his mishandling of the COVID-19 pandemic .
His last chance appears to require reversing and revising his @ @ @ @ @ @ @ may be a bridge too far for Donald J. Trump , even if it means his defeat .

Donald Trump’s heated racial appeals betray his growing political problem with white voters. Trump is running far behind Joe Biden in national polls because, according to data from the Pew Research Center, his 20 percentage-point advantage with white voters in 2016 (57 percent to 37 percent) dwindled to nine points by mid-August of this year (54 percent to 45 percent). Trump’s deficit with Hispanic voters is actually less than in 2016, down from 38 to 28 percentage-points (35 percent to 63 percent). When it comes to Black and Asian-American voters he’s held steady since 2016. He faces an 80 percentage-point gap in support from Black voters (8 percent to 88 percent), as he did last time, and his 38-point deficit with Asian voters (27 percent to 65 percent) is also unchanged. Crunch the numbers and in a fair election, Biden would beat the president by at least 10 million votes today and carry four of the five swing states Trump won in 2016—Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina and Florida Trump would hold on to Wisconsin under this scenario.
This assessment does not rest on typical polls of 800 or 1,200 people. People’s current preferences for Trump versus Biden by race and ethnicity and the 2016 vote by race and ethnicity are drawn from the Pew Research Center’s gold-standard survey of 11,000 registered voters.The projected vote this year by race and ethnicity also rests on voter registration and turnout data from the 3.5 million households who take part in the Census Bureau’s American Community Survey, its annual comprehensive measure of the population. Combining data of this breadth is a powerful lens on the electorate. And the electorate is not happy.
Drill down into woes with white voters: They provided about 90 percent of his support in a very close 2016 race. He cannot afford to lose any of them in November. On top of that, the most recent Census Bureau data (2018) show that since 2016, the absolute number of white Americans registered to vote also has fallen substantially. Trump’s law-and-order outbursts and clumsy efforts to demonize Biden may excite his educed base, but those tactics ignore the top concerns of both white and minority voters—the high and rising death toll from the pandemic and the three-fold increase in unemployment.
Trump’s 2016 victory rested on white Americans who dominated the 2016 electorate. Back then, 114.2 million whites were registered to vote, compared to 41.0 million Black, Asian, and Hispanic Americans. But from 2016 to 2018, the universe of registered white voters contracted by 4.1 million votes, while the ranks of registered Black, Asian, and Hispanic voters fell by only 560,000. The registration data also show that the number of registered college graduates, one of Biden’s strongest groups, increased by nearly 2 million to 60.4 million voters, while Trump’s strongest group, registered voters with high school diplomas or less, also contracted by 4.1 million to 46.2 million.
And if you register to vote but odds are you will turn out to vote. In 2016, 88 percent of registered white voters cast ballots in the presidential election, as did 87 percent of registered Black voters, 86 percent of registered Asian voters, and 83 percent of registered Hispanic voters. By contrast, the latest registration data show that 71 percent of eligible white voters were registered to vote in 2018 (down from 74 percent in 2016), compared to 64 percent of eligible Black Americans, 53 percent of eligible Asian Americans, and 54 percent of eligible Hispanic Americans.
The decline in white voter registration, Trump’s reduced support from white voters, and Biden’s overwhelming backing from minority Americans together present a daunting obstacle to a second Trump term.
We can project the likely vote if a fair election happened today. Using the 2018 voter registration data by race and ethnicity, the 2016 voting rates by race and ethnicity, and Trump and Biden’s support in mid-August by race and ethnicity, the outcome is catastrophic for the president.He would be expected to carry white voters by an 8.8 million vote margin while losing Blacks by 13.4 million votes, Asians by 1.8 million votes, and Hispanics by 3.9 million votes. In this accounting, Biden’s estimated popular vote margin in a fair election today would be nearly 10.1 million votes, in a 53.9-percent-to-46.1-percent race (Table below, Margin-1). If we distribute the small numbers of non-responders to the Pew Research Center’s survey, Biden would be expected to top Trump’s total number of votes in a fair election today by 10.6 million votes, in a 54.0-percent-to-46.0-percent race.
Of course, a presidential election is a competition for electoral votes, and not a popularity contest. So, we can apply the same analysis to the five critical swing states won by Trump in 2016—Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. We use each state’s 2018 voter registration data by race and ethnicity, each state’s 2016 voter turnout rates by race and ethnicity, and the Pew Research Center survey of support for Trump and Biden by race and ethnicity.
The results show Biden today winning four of the five swing states—all but Wisconsin—in a fair election today. In Florida, Biden would be expected to win by about 900,000 votes: Trump carries Florida’s white voters by a 485,000 margin, while Biden wins Florida Black voters by a 932,000 margin, Florida Hispanics by 402,000 votes, and Florida Asians by 49,00 votes. North Carolina is also a wipeout for Trump: He would be expected to carry the state’s white vote by a 296,000 margin and lose the state by 535,000 votes, because Biden is projected to carry Black North Carolina voters by a margin of 773,000 votes, the state’s Asian voters by 27,735 votes, and its Hispanic voters by 30,500 votes.
Michigan and Pennsylvania are closer, because 85 percent of the expected voters in those states are white, compared to 75 percent in North Carolina and 67 percent in Florida. So, in a fair election today, Biden would be expected to carry Michigan by 204,000 votes—by winning the state’s minority voters by 564,000 votes and losing Michigan white voters by a 360,000-vote margin. Similarly, Biden today would be expected to carry Pennsylvania by 106,000 votes despite Trump winning the state’s white voters by a 432,000-vote margin, because Biden’s expected margin from minority voters would be 538,000 votes.
Wisconsin is the only swing state that Trump should be expected to carry today in a fair election, primarily because whites comprise more than 91 percent of the state’s expected voters. By this analysis, Biden would carry Wisconsin’s minority voters by a 132,600-vote margin and lose the state by 91,000 votes because Trump would win Wisconsin white voters by a 224,000-vote margin. But in a fair election, the Biden-Harris ticket would not need Wisconsin’s electoral vote to defeat Trump-Pence.
In fact, in a fair election today, Biden would be expected to defeat Trump with support from 40 percent to 41 percent of white voters, albeit a narrower win. At 45 percent support, it would be a blowout.
Trump’s only seeming opening for a second term involves winning back a significant share of the white voters he has lost today over the mounting deaths and economic fallout from his mishandling of the COVID-19 pandemic. His last chance appears to require reversing and revising his entire approach to the pandemic. That may be a bridge too far for Donald J. Trump, even if it means his defeat.


washingtonmonthly--2020-09-04--Is it a Coincidence That Moscow Is Peddling the Same Lies as the Trump Campaign?

No journalist has done a better job of fact-checking Donald Trump during his presidency than Daniel Dale .
But now the CNN reporter , formerly of the Toronto Star , has done an invaluable service by outlining the nine conspiracy theories the president is continuously peddling .
As Dale suggests , “ Trump has been a conspiracy theorist for years.
” but never before has he pushed so many at one time .
Two of them align completely with disinformation campaigns coming out of Moscow .
For example , we learned that the Russian government began promoting the lies about @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Russia has sought to “ amplify ” concerns over the integrity of U.S. elections by promoting allegations that mail-in voting will lead to widespread fraud , according to an intelligence bulletin obtained by ABC News , again echoing a frequent and unfounded complaint raised by President Donald Trump .
Analysts with the Department of Homeland Security ’ s intelligence branch issued the warning on Thursday to federal and state law enforcement partners after finding with “ high confidence ” that “ Russian malign influence actors ” have targeted the absentee voting process @ @ @ @ @ @ @ least March .
The timing raises the question of where the conspiracy theory originated—in the Kremlin or the White House .
Similarly , we now know that the Department of Homeland Security hid a report about how Moscow was promoting the idea that Biden is mentally unfit .
Their excuse for not sharing that information is that the intelligence report was “ poorly written and thinly sourced.
” But according to the document that was finally released , their data was incredibly solid .
Once again , if this disinformation campaign began in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s mental health seem to have started in Moscow and migrated to the Trump campaign .
This is all reminiscent of the coordinated attack on Hillary Clinton ’ s physical and mental health in 2016 .
What we now know is that conservative author Jerome Corsi was in contact with Julian Assange on the release of hacked emails by Wikileaks .
He communicated with Roger Stone , who then coordinated with the Trump campaign .
Here is what Corsi wrote to Stone on August 2 , 2016 : When it comes to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , it is clear that both Putin and Trump are drawing on the same playbook .
Perhaps that ’ s just a coincidence .
But given this history , that is unlikely .

No journalist has done a better job of fact-checking Donald Trump during his presidency than Daniel Dale. But now the CNN reporter, formerly of the Toronto Star, has done an invaluable service by outlining the nine conspiracy theories the president is continuously peddling. As Dale suggests, “Trump has been a conspiracy theorist for years.” but never before has he pushed so many at one time.
Two of them align completely with disinformation campaigns coming out of Moscow. For example, we learned that the Russian government began promoting the lies about mail-in ballots as early as last March.
Russia has sought to “amplify” concerns over the integrity of U.S. elections by promoting allegations that mail-in voting will lead to widespread fraud, according to an intelligence bulletin obtained by ABC News, again echoing a frequent and unfounded complaint raised by President Donald Trump. Analysts with the Department of Homeland Security’s intelligence branch issued the warning on Thursday to federal and state law enforcement partners after finding with “high confidence” that “Russian malign influence actors” have targeted the absentee voting process “by spreading disinformation” since at least March.
The timing raises the question of where the conspiracy theory originated—in the Kremlin or the White House.
Similarly, we now know that the Department of Homeland Security hid a report about how Moscow was promoting the idea that Biden is mentally unfit. Their excuse for not sharing that information is that the intelligence report was “poorly written and thinly sourced.” But according to the document that was finally released, their data was incredibly solid.
The report cites posts by Russian state media outlets RT and Sputnik about Biden’s mental health between September 2019 and May 2020. In March, a Russian proxy website “refuted media claims that the candidate’s gaffes are the result of a stutter, instead arguing these verbal miscues are symptoms of dementia,” the bulletin said.
Once again, if this disinformation campaign began in September 2019, the attacks on Biden’s mental health seem to have started in Moscow and migrated to the Trump campaign.
This is all reminiscent of the coordinated attack on Hillary Clinton’s physical and mental health in 2016. What we now know is that conservative author Jerome Corsi was in contact with Julian Assange on the release of hacked emails by Wikileaks. He communicated with Roger Stone, who then coordinated with the Trump campaign. Here is what Corsi wrote to Stone on August 2, 2016:
Word is friend in embassy [Assange] plans 2 more dumps. One shortly after I’m back. 2nd in Oct. Impact planned to be very damaging…Would not hurt to start suggesting HRC old, memory bad, has stroke—neither he nor she well.
When it comes to the lies about mail-in voting and Biden, it is clear that both Putin and Trump are drawing on the same playbook. Perhaps that’s just a coincidence. But given this history, that is unlikely.


washingtonmonthly--2020-09-04--It’s a Bad Idea to Vote Twice

It’s a Bad Idea to Vote Twice

When I was a student , I was always a little paranoid when taking standardized tests .
I worried that some of my answers wouldn ’ t be recorded because I hadn ’ t adequately filled in the ovals with my No .
2 pencil .
I carry that fear with me every time I vote because we use the same system in my assigned precinct .
I ’ m obsessive about not leaving even a hint of white .
No one wants to vote and not have it recorded .
But one thing I know about multiple-choice tests is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ answers or they ’ ll cancel each other out .
You ’ ll get no credit for either one .
Inevitably , some people make this mistake in elections .
They ’ ll vote for both Al Gore and Pat Buchanan because of a confusing butterfly ballot , for example , and wind up being recorded as having voted for no one .
This is how America ended up occupying Iraq .
Likewise , I know that I can ’ t vote once for Joe Biden by absentee ballot and then vote for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ polling place .
If I attempt this on November 3 , I should discover that I ’ m in the system as having already voted .
In other words , the poll workers probably won ’ t give me a second ballot on Election Day .
They might let me cast a provisional ballot if I insist that their records are wrong and that I haven ’ t voted absentee .
In that case , my provisional ballot will be held , eventually examined , and ultimately discarded .
It ’ s obviously @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are prosecuted for this offense .
But voters are also genuinely forgetful .
If you ’ re not sure if you ’ ve already voted , many states will let you check online to be sure your vote was counted .
I don ’ t know if there is a consistent legal standard for casting a provisional ballot “ just to make sure , ” but it ’ s not a good idea .
You don ’ t want to break the law , and you should not rely on the competence of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a crime .
Casting two regular ballots intentionally is definitely a crime , everywhere , and always .
President Trump caused a spike in accidental poisonings when he suggested that ingesting disinfectants might cure COVID-19 .
We should expect his calls for double voting to lead to a spike in attempted voter fraud .
By asking his supporters to vote both absentee and in person , the president is trying to prove that it ’ s possible to get away with it .
He might be right in certain states or precincts with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the error will be detected and the voter prosecuted .
Unlike with the SATs , however , the first of their answers will still count .
President Trump ’ s encouragement of fraud might lead to voters trying to cast two ballots even after this fall .
We might have to change the law so that casting two ballots results in neither vote being recorded .

When I was a student, I was always a little paranoid when taking standardized tests. I worried that some of my answers wouldn’t be recorded because I hadn’t adequately filled in the ovals with my No. 2 pencil. I carry that fear with me every time I vote because we use the same system in my assigned precinct. I’m obsessive about not leaving even a hint of white. No one wants to vote and not have it recorded.
But one thing I know about multiple-choice tests is that you can’t give two answers or they’ll cancel each other out. You’ll get no credit for either one. Inevitably, some people make this mistake in elections. They’ll vote for both Al Gore and Pat Buchanan because of a confusing butterfly ballot, for example, and wind up being recorded as having voted for no one. This is how America ended up occupying Iraq.
Likewise, I know that I can’t vote once for Joe Biden by absentee ballot and then vote for him again on Election Day at my polling place. If I attempt this on November 3, I should discover that I’m in the system as having already voted. In other words, the poll workers probably won’t give me a second ballot on Election Day. They might let me cast a provisional ballot if I insist that their records are wrong and that I haven’t voted absentee. In that case, my provisional ballot will be held, eventually examined, and ultimately discarded.
It’s obviously illegal to vote twice, and people are prosecuted for this offense. But voters are also genuinely forgetful. If you’re not sure if you’ve already voted, many states will let you check online to be sure your vote was counted. I don’t know if there is a consistent legal standard for casting a provisional ballot “just to make sure,” but it’s not a good idea. You don’t want to break the law, and you should not rely on the competence of poll workers to prevent you from committing a crime. Casting two regular ballots intentionally is definitely a crime, everywhere, and always.
President Trump caused a spike in accidental poisonings when he suggested that ingesting disinfectants might cure COVID-19. We should expect his calls for double voting to lead to a spike in attempted voter fraud.
By asking his supporters to vote both absentee and in person, the president is trying to prove that it’s possible to get away with it. He might be right in certain states or precincts with lax record-keeping. But in most cases, the error will be detected and the voter prosecuted. Unlike with the SATs, however, the first of their answers will still count.
President Trump’s encouragement of fraud might lead to voters trying to cast two ballots even after this fall. We might have to change the law so that casting two ballots results in neither vote being recorded.