More Policy, Please

In this very unusual convention season , one of the notable oddities is the absence of a Republican platform .
Citing the COVID-19 crisis and the difficulties of convening delegates , the party just re-upped its 2016 platform even though there have been , um , a few developments since then .
( A near Depression and a global pandemic come to mind . )
But the GOP death of policy doesn ’ t just reflect a chasm between the parties .
The Democrats have a platform—and it ’ s worth reading—but the major speeches delivered last week were light @ @ @ @ @ @ @ threat of Donald Trump ending our democracy if given another four years .
At the same time , the speakers portrayed Joe Biden as compassionate , not scary , and totally not sleepy .
Democrats conveyed these ideas well .
But if you weren ’ t reading the platform or knew about the various ideas kicking around the Biden firmament—Cory Booker ’ s idea of Baby Bonds to build up wealth for the poor , Elizabeth Warren ’ s crackdown on monopolies—the speeches didn ’ t tell you much other than reiterating a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The lack of specifics is something that reporters and academics always moan but it ’ s worth remembering that voters have shown a surprising interest in policy , too .
They may not be reading monographs on monetary policy , but they do understand the stakes .
The 1992 campaign was rich in public policy , with Bill Clinton and Al Gore ’ s “ Putting People First ” book actually becoming a bestseller .
The “ compassionate conservatism ” of George W. Bush ’ s 2000 campaign was much mocked but @ @ @ @ @ @ @ chided a fellow Texan , Republican Majority Leader Tom DeLay , for wanting to balance the budget on the backs of the poor , and he promoted an expanded federal role in education , which led to the No Child Left Behind Act in 2001 .
Collapsing tax brackets were also part of his tax cut plan that year .
You can question the wisdom of any of these policies .
But they were policies nonetheless .
They were articulated clearly and brought some electoral success .
The 1968 Nixon campaign has rightly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ legitimate fears of crime and disorder while avoiding the extremism of George Wallace , in an effort to conflate Hubert Humphrey with Abby Hoffmann .
It worked , of course .
And perhaps Donald Trump ’ s efforts to turn Biden and Kamala Harris into skateboard wheeling anarchists will help him .
( I doubt it , but I also don ’ t underestimate the possibility . )
The 1968 race , however , actually had policies and contained the seeds of Nixon ’ s better qualities : his Tory liberalism that unleashed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ liberal icons : The Environmental Protection Agency , the Occupational Safety and Health Administration , Affirmative Action , minority set-asides .
Even Spiro Agnew , Nixon ’ s vice president , and one of the most odious figures in American politics , felt a need to put the policy out there .
In his 1968 seconding speech at the GOP convention in Miami Beach , Agnew sounded a tad Clintonesque when he said that one of his “ objectives of being on the ticket was to analyze the problems of this nation without @ @ @ @ @ @ @ or conservatism.
” Referring to the much examined “ urban crisis , ” as it was known , Agnew said : “ I know there is a bright new world of ideas for cities such as cultural , commercial and industrial centers as well as satellite cities—that we are only beginning to explore.
” That laid the groundwork for a number of Nixon initiatives , such as revenue sharing and a program that was a forerunner to the Section 8 plan to help the poor into private housing .
Nixon would backtrack on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ his tenure , but it was , at least , serious engagement in policy .
Republicans have made a bet this year that lies about Trump ’ s record—and Biden ’ s—can prevail .
Democrats have made a bet that decency and competence and Trump-fatigue will be enough .
Is it ?
Putting more policy details out there isn ’ t always a political winner .
The press ’ s idiotic reporting of Al Gore ’ s Social Security “ lockbox ” in 2000 and his inability to explain it well was a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , voters want to know what you want to do and how you want to do it .
Even if you jettison your plans once in office—FDR giving up on fiscal austerity , George W. Bush deciding that being the policeman of the world is a good idea , Bill Clinton and his “ middle-class tax cut ” —the mere engagement with ideas matters .
Trump will not care about policy .
He ’ s not capable of it .
He ’ s already chucked the few things that made him interesting at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , on the other hand , understands the government as well as anyone .
He ought to talk about it more .

In this very unusual convention season, one of the notable oddities is the absence of a Republican platform. Citing the COVID-19 crisis and the difficulties of convening delegates, the party just re-upped its 2016 platform even though there have been, um, a few developments since then. (A near Depression and a global pandemic come to mind.)
But the GOP death of policy doesn’t just reflect a chasm between the parties. The Democrats have a platform—and it’s worth reading—but the major speeches delivered last week were light on specifics and were more about the threat of Donald Trump ending our democracy if given another four years. At the same time, the speakers portrayed Joe Biden as compassionate, not scary, and totally not sleepy. Democrats conveyed these ideas well.
But if you weren’t reading the platform or knew about the various ideas kicking around the Biden firmament—Cory Booker’s idea of Baby Bonds to build up wealth for the poor, Elizabeth Warren’s crackdown on monopolies—the speeches didn’t tell you much other than reiterating a commitment to social justice and green jobs.
The lack of specifics is something that reporters and academics always moan but it’s worth remembering that voters have shown a surprising interest in policy, too. They may not be reading monographs on monetary policy, but they do understand the stakes. The 1992 campaign was rich in public policy, with Bill Clinton and Al Gore’s “Putting People First” book actually becoming a bestseller. The “compassionate conservatism” of George W. Bush’s 2000 campaign was much mocked but it represented important policy distinctions. Bush chided a fellow Texan,Republican Majority Leader Tom DeLay, for wanting to balance the budget on the backs of the poor, and he promoted an expanded federal role in education, which led to the No Child Left Behind Act in 2001. Collapsing tax brackets were also part of his tax cut plan that year. You can question the wisdom of any of these policies. But they were policies nonetheless. They were articulated clearly and brought some electoral success.
The 1968 Nixon campaign has rightly been derided as a cynical exercise—playing on legitimate fears of crime and disorder while avoiding the extremism of George Wallace, in an effort to conflate Hubert Humphrey with Abby Hoffmann. It worked, of course. And perhaps Donald Trump’s efforts to turn Biden and Kamala Harris into skateboard wheeling anarchists will help him. (I doubt it, but I also don’t underestimate the possibility.)
The 1968 race, however, actually had policies and contained the seeds of Nixon’s better qualities: his Tory liberalism that unleashed a slew of what now seem like liberal icons: The Environmental Protection Agency, the Occupational Safety and Health Administration , Affirmative Action, minority set-asides.
Even Spiro Agnew, Nixon’s vice president, and one of the most odious figures in American politics, felt a need to put the policy out there. In his 1968 seconding speech at the GOP convention in Miami Beach, Agnew sounded a tad Clintonesque when he said that one of his “objectives of being on the ticket was to analyze the problems of this nation without resort to the canned philosophies of liberalism or conservatism.”
Referring to the much examined “urban crisis,” as it was known, Agnew said: “I know there is a bright new world of ideas for cities such as cultural, commercial and industrial centers as well as satellite cities—that we are only beginning to explore.” That laid the groundwork for a number of Nixon initiatives, such as revenue sharing and a program that was a forerunner to the Section 8 plan to help the poor into private housing. Nixon would backtrack on a lot of these ideas later in his tenure, but it was, at least, serious engagement in policy.
Republicans have made a bet this year that lies about Trump’s record—and Biden’s—can prevail. Democrats have made a bet that decency and competence and Trump-fatigue will be enough. Is it?
Putting more policy details out there isn’t always a political winner. The press’s idiotic reporting of Al Gore’s Social Security “lockbox” in 2000 and his inability to explain it well was a mess. But more often than not, voters want to know what you want to do and how you want to do it. Even if you jettison your plans once in office—FDR giving up on fiscal austerity, George W. Bush deciding that being the policeman of the world is a good idea, Bill Clinton and his “middle-class tax cut”—the mere engagement with ideas matters. Trump will not care about policy. He’s not capable of it. He’s already chucked the few things that made him interesting at one time like protecting entitlements. Biden, on the other hand, understands the government as well as anyone. He ought to talk about it more.


washingtonmonthly--2020-08-26--Is the Pandemic Fueling More Domestic Violence?

There is a lot we don ’ t know about the shooting of Jacob Blake by police officers in Kenosha , Wisconsin .
But here are some of the facts : • Officers were responding to a call for a domestic disturbance .
• Blake was shot in the back multiple times .
• Blake ’ s three children , ages 3 , 5 , and 8 , were in the car when their father was shot .
• Blake appears to have survived , but it has been reported that he will be paralyzed from the waist down .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ viral , but apparently Facebook felt that it was too graphic to post on their site .
Part of what makes the shooting such a concern is that it occurred after a call to the police about a domestic disturbance .
If the takeaway for women is that calling the cops could result in yet another Black man being gunned down by law enforcement , they are likely to think twice before doing so .
That puts the lives of both women and children at risk when they are threatened .
During the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ police department in a previous job , I learned that domestic calls for service made up about one third of calls to the police .
That comports with data collected by the New York Times , Philip Bump , and Jerry Ratcliffe .
The question this raises is whether law enforcement is the best way to respond to those situations .
We are beginning to hear about alternatives in places like Eugene , Oregon and Alexandria , Kentucky .
While a slogan like “ defund the police ” is red meat for Trump @ @ @ @ @ @ @ actually the kind of alternatives people are talking about .
Here is how Ebony Morgan explained the importance of the program in Oregon : I came into this work passionate about being part of an alternative to police response because my father died during a police encounter .
So it matters to me very much… I think policing may have a place within this system , but I also think that it ’ s over-utilized as an immediate response because it just comes with a risk .
And it ’ s a risk @ @ @ @ @ @ @ don ’ t come with .
You know , in 30 years , we ’ ve never had a serious injury or a death that our team was responsible for .
And I think that ’ s important to note .
As I mentioned previously , while overall crime has decreased in 2020 , homicides are up in many major cities .
We don ’ t know why that is happening , but here is at least one expert ’ s speculation .
Phillip Atiba Goff , co-founder and C.E.O .
of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ increased domestic violence as one possible cause of the increase in murder .
“ The first explanation that I have is that this comes from people being locked inside ( during quarantines ) and a lack of social services , ” he said .
“ All those things are things that we would expect to lead to higher rates of violence .
That ’ s speculation , though .
I have no evidence that that ’ s the right thing other than the rise in calls for domestic violence.
” Here are the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ domestic violence : The shooting of Jacob Blake points to a very deadly combination : a pandemic fueling domestic violence paired with justifiable concerns about police brutality .

There is a lot we don’t know about the shooting of Jacob Blake by police officers in Kenosha, Wisconsin. But here are some of the facts:
Officers were responding to a call for a domestic disturbance.
Blake was shot in the back multiple times.
Blake’s three children, ages 3, 5, and 8, were in the car when their father was shot.
Blake appears to have survived, but it has been reported that he will be paralyzed from the waist down.
This video of the shooting has gone viral, but apparently Facebook felt that it was too graphic to post on their site.
Part of what makes the shooting such a concern is that it occurred after a call to the police about a domestic disturbance. If the takeaway for women is that calling the cops could result in yet another Black man being gunned down by law enforcement, they are likely to think twice before doing so. That puts the lives of both women and children at risk when they are threatened.
During the time that I was collaborating with a police department in a previous job, I learned that domestic calls for service made up about one third of calls to the police. That comports with data collected by the New York Times, Philip Bump, and Jerry Ratcliffe. The question this raises is whether law enforcement is the best way to respond to those situations. We are beginning to hear about alternatives in places like Eugene, Oregon and Alexandria, Kentucky.
While a slogan like “defund the police” is red meat for Trump and his enablers, those examples are actually the kind of alternatives people are talking about. Here is how Ebony Morgan explained the importance of the program in Oregon:
I came into this work passionate about being part of an alternative to police response because my father died during a police encounter. So it matters to me very much… I think policing may have a place within this system, but I also think that it’s over-utilized as an immediate response because it just comes with a risk. And it’s a risk that crisis response teams that are unarmed don’t come with. You know, in 30 years, we’ve never had a serious injury or a death that our team was responsible for. And I think that’s important to note.
As I mentioned previously, while overall crime has decreased in 2020, homicides are up in many major cities. We don’t know why that is happening, but here is at least one expert’s speculation.
Phillip Atiba Goff, co-founder and C.E.O. of the Center for Policing Equity, points to increased domestic violence as one possible cause of the increase in murder. “The first explanation that I have is that this comes from people being locked inside (during quarantines) and a lack of social services,” he said. “All those things are things that we would expect to lead to higher rates of violence. That’s speculation, though. I have no evidence that that’s the right thing other than the rise in calls for domestic violence.”
Here are the facts about the rise in calls for domestic violence:
The pandemic and accompanying public health response led to a 10.2 percent increase in domestic violence calls. The increase in reported domestic violence incidents begins before official stay-at-home orders were put into place, is not driven by any particular demographic group, but does appear to be driven by households without a prior history of domestic violence.
The shooting of Jacob Blake points to a very deadly combination: a pandemic fueling domestic violence paired with justifiable concerns about police brutality.


washingtonmonthly--2020-08-25--Republicans Focus on ‘American Carnage’ … Again

Four years ago , this is how Donald Trump opened his speech at the Republican Convention .
Our Convention occurs at a moment of crisis for our nation .
The attacks on our police , and the terrorism in our cities , threaten our very way of life .
Any politician who does not grasp this danger is not fit to lead our country .
Americans watching this address tonight have seen the recent images of violence in our streets and the chaos in our communities .
Many have witnessed this violence personally , some have even been its victims @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of you : the crime and violence that today afflicts our nation will soon come to an end .
Beginning on January 20th 2017 , safety will be restored .
He repeated that message during his inaugural address and said , “ This American carnage stops right here and right now.
” So Trump lied about a wave of crime and violence sweeping the country and promised that safety would be restored on his Inauguration Day .
He ’ s now had four years in office , so you ’ d think that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ American carnage ” would not be a wise political move .
Of course , you ’ d be wrong .
Writing before the beginning of the 2020 Republican convention , RNC Chair Ronna McDaniel said this about the Democratic Convention .
In a letter to his supporters that is going viral on Facebook , here is what court evangelical , James Dobson , wrote : Finally , here are some quotes from the opening night : Matt Gaetz : “ The woketopians will settle for Biden because they will make him an extra @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and directed by others .
It ’ s a horror film , really .
They ’ ll disarm you , empty the prisons , lock you in your home , and invite MS-13 to live next door.
” Charlie Kirk : “ Trump was elected to protect our families from the vengeful mob that seeks to destroy our way of life , our neighborhoods , schools , churches , and values ” Patty McCloskey : “ Make no mistake : No matter where you live , your family will not be safe in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ other words , Trump and his enablers want you to believe that there is once again , carnage on our streets as a result of protests against police brutality—like what just happened to Jacob Blake in Kenosha , Wisconsin .
But let ’ s get some facts straight because , as CNN reported , there were more lies told on the first night of the Republican Convention than they documented in all four nights of the Democratic Convention .
Here is what Jeff Asher and Ben Horwitz found when they reviewed crime statistics @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of 2020 : Veering from historical precedent , they did find that homicide rates in those major cities have gone up .
We don ’ t have answers yet about why that is happening , but it is more than likely related to the effects of the pandemic rather than protesters on the streets .
All of this is precisely why Trump sent federal troops out to attack peaceful protesters in both Washington , D.C. and Portland , Oregon .
He wanted pictures of them clashing with law enforcement to set the stage @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is often the case , his goals aligned with the white supremacists who were responsible for much of the property crimes associated with the protests .
For all of their talk about focusing their convention on optimism , Ed Kilgore nailed exactly what is happening .
And so the Trump 2020 campaign is doomed to a dark , hateful vision of American dystopia that will somehow take a turn for the worse if Joe Biden is elected .
Clearly , he and his wizards have decided that a suburban-focused twist on Trump ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and perhaps the only available way to turn a racist smear job into swing-voter candy .
So at the RNC , you can expect to hear a lot of warnings that looting and raping will spill from “ Democrat cities ” into virtuous white suburbs if senile Joe Biden and his radical running mate are allowed into power .
As we all know by now , neither Trump nor the Republican Party have an agenda to run on in 2020 .
Since fear mongering and racism are all they ’ ve got , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ do a repeat of the president ’ s “ carnage in America ” message once again .

Four years ago, this is how Donald Trump opened his speech at the Republican Convention.
Our Convention occurs at a moment of crisis for our nation. The attacks on our police, and the terrorism in our cities, threaten our very way of life. Any politician who does not grasp this danger is not fit to lead our country. Americans watching this address tonight have seen the recent images of violence in our streets and the chaos in our communities. Many have witnessed this violence personally, some have even been its victims. I have a message for all of you: the crime and violence that today afflicts our nation will soon come to an end. Beginning on January 20th 2017, safety will be restored.
He repeated that message during his inaugural address and said, “This American carnage stops right here and right now.”
So Trump lied about a wave of crime and violence sweeping the country and promised that safety would be restored on his Inauguration Day. He’s now had four years in office, so you’d think that running on a repeat message of “American carnage” would not be a wise political move. Of course, you’d be wrong.
Writing before the beginning of the 2020 Republican convention, RNC Chair Ronna McDaniel said this about the Democratic Convention.
Democrats couldn’t even muster the courage to call out even once at their convention the looting and violence that continue to inflict chaos and mayhem in city after city, night after night.
In a letter to his supporters that is going viral on Facebook, here is what court evangelical, James Dobson, wrote:
Our nation is divided like no time since the Civil War. Lawlessness and anarchy stalk the cities as angry mobs riot, burn, loot, rob, and kill innocent bystanders. Cultural monuments are being destroyed. Scores of people have been shot. Our courageous police officers are being brutally attacked by the same people they have vowed to protect.
Finally, here are some quotes from the opening night:
Matt Gaetz: “The woketopians will settle for Biden because they will make him an extra in a movie written, produced, and directed by others. It’s a horror film, really. They’ll disarm you, empty the prisons, lock you in your home, and invite MS-13 to live next door.” Charlie Kirk: “Trump was elected to protect our families from the vengeful mob that seeks to destroy our way of life, our neighborhoods, schools, churches, and values” Patty McCloskey: “Make no mistake: No matter where you live, your family will not be safe in the radical Democrats’ America.”
In other words, Trump and his enablers want you to believe that there is once again, carnage on our streets as a result of protests against police brutality—like what just happened to Jacob Blake in Kenosha, Wisconsin. But let’s get some facts straight because, as CNN reported, there were more lies told on the first night of the Republican Convention than they documented in all four nights of the Democratic Convention. Here is what Jeff Asher and Ben Horwitz found when they reviewed crime statistics in major cities for the first half of 2020:
Overall crime is down 5.3 percent in 25 large American cities relative to the same period in 2019, with violent crime down 2 percent … Property crime is down in 18 of the 25 sampled cities, and violent crime is down in 11 of them.
Veering from historical precedent, they did find that homicide rates in those major cities have gone up. We don’t have answers yet about why that is happening, but it is more than likely related to the effects of the pandemic rather than protesters on the streets.
All of this is precisely why Trump sent federal troops out to attack peaceful protesters in both Washington, D.C. and Portland, Oregon. He wanted pictures of them clashing with law enforcement to set the stage for these kinds of claims. As is often the case, his goals aligned with the white supremacists who were responsible for much of the property crimes associated with the protests.
For all of their talk about focusing their convention on optimism, Ed Kilgore nailed exactly what is happening.
And so the Trump 2020 campaign is doomed to a dark, hateful vision of American dystopia that will somehow take a turn for the worse if Joe Biden is elected. Clearly, he and his wizards have decided that a suburban-focused twist on Trump’s 2016 law-and-order stylings is the best and perhaps the only available way to turn a racist smear job into swing-voter candy. So at the RNC, you can expect to hear a lot of warnings that looting and raping will spill from “Democrat cities” into virtuous white suburbs if senile Joe Biden and his radical running mate are allowed into power.
As we all know by now, neither Trump nor the Republican Party have an agenda to run on in 2020. Since fear mongering and racism are all they’ve got, they will return to that well and do a repeat of the president’s “carnage in America” message once again.


washingtonmonthly--2020-08-25--Why the GOP Convention’s First Night Was (Kind of) a Success

As the weird facsimile of a Republican National Convention launched on Monday night , the latest polls for President Trump were almost unremittingly bad .
He ’ s behind everywhere that really matters , including by a hair in the most recent surveys out of Texas and Ohio .
What ’ s more , the news environment was bad for Trump , his family , and his political allies .
Closest to home , word got out that Trump ’ s niece had surreptitiously taped his sister making disparaging and hurtful remarks about him .
Someone else had secretly taped @ @ @ @ @ @ @ her step kids .
One of these step kids , Eric Trump , was in hot water for failing to comply with a subpoena issued by the New York attorney general for Trump Organization records .
The president had also just lost a court fight with porn star Stormy Daniels and was ordered to pay her legal fees .
That came on the heels of him losing a fight in federal court to shield his tax records from the Manhattan District Attorney .
Meanwhile , Jerry Falwell Jr. , whose 2016 endorsement of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , was embroiled in the most sordid kind of sex scandal and in the process of being forced out as the president of Liberty University .
New scrutiny will be applied to the question of whether Trump bagman Michael Cohen blackmailed Falwell about the affair to secure his support .
The news was horrible , too , for the man and woman who replaced Paul Manafort as Trump ’ s 2016 campaign leaders .
Steve Bannon was arrested on a Chinese billionaire ’ s yacht , and Kellyanne Conway ’ s daughter took @ @ @ @ @ @ @ abuse and say that she would seek to be legally emancipated from their custody .
This , in all likelihood , is what prompted Conway to announce her departure from the White House at the end of the month .
Under the circumstances , the first night of the “ convention ” went off fairly well and was probably more effective than most liberals recognize or want to admit .
If nothing else , it took attention away from all the negative stories that were swirling around .
The theory behind the first @ @ @ @ @ @ @ difficult to discern .
Black voices attested to Trump ’ s lack of racism , while white voices spoke to suburban fears of Black crime .
Trump is trying to cut into Biden ’ s margins in his areas of strength , and he ’ ll hope to do it without hurting the enthusiasm of his more rural base .
Trump also used his primetime slot to rewrite the history of the COVID-19 outbreak , hoping to make his failures less of a liability for him at the polls .
Based on the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ like the Trump campaign achieved its goals .
The message was necessarily mixed and contradictory , so the programming was anything but consistent or truly coherent , but the Republican National Committee made the arguments it wanted to make—and it made strategic sense .
The confab ’ s organizers were probably pretty pleased with how it went , but it won ’ t do much to fix the legal and political problems that keep mounting around the president , his family , and his allies .

As the weird facsimile of a Republican National Convention launched on Monday night, the latest polls for President Trump were almost unremittingly bad. He’s behind everywhere that really matters, including by a hair in the most recent surveys out of Texas and Ohio. What’s more, the news environment was bad for Trump, his family, and his political allies.
Closest to home, word got out that Trump’s niece had surreptitiously taped his sister making disparaging and hurtful remarks about him. Someone else had secretly taped his wife Melania dumping on him and her step kids. One of these step kids, Eric Trump, was in hot water for failing to comply with a subpoena issued by the New York attorney general for Trump Organization records. The president had also just lost a court fight with porn star Stormy Daniels and was ordered to pay her legal fees. That came on the heels of him losing a fight in federal court to shield his tax records from the Manhattan District Attorney.
Meanwhile, Jerry Falwell Jr., whose 2016 endorsement of Donald Trump was critical to his success, was embroiled in the most sordid kind of sex scandal and in the process of being forced out as the president of Liberty University. New scrutiny will be applied to the question of whether Trump bagman Michael Cohen blackmailed Falwell about the affair to secure his support.
The news was horrible, too, for the man and woman who replaced Paul Manafort as Trump’s 2016 campaign leaders. Steve Bannon was arrested on a Chinese billionaire’s yacht, and Kellyanne Conway’s daughter took to TikTok to accuse her parents of abuse and say that she would seek to be legally emancipated from their custody. This, in all likelihood, is what prompted Conway to announce her departure from the White House at the end of the month.
Under the circumstances, the first night of the “convention” went off fairly well and was probably more effective than most liberals recognize or want to admit. If nothing else, it took attention away from all the negative stories that were swirling around. The theory behind the first night’s programming wasn’t difficult to discern. Black voices attested to Trump’s lack of racism, while white voices spoke to suburban fears of Black crime. Trump is trying to cut into Biden’s margins in his areas of strength, and he’ll hope to do it without hurting the enthusiasm of his more rural base. Trump also used his primetime slot to rewrite the history of the COVID-19 outbreak, hoping to make his failures less of a liability for him at the polls.
Based on the goals for the night, it seemed like the Trump campaign achieved its goals. The message was necessarily mixed and contradictory, so the programming was anything but consistent or truly coherent, but the Republican National Committee made the arguments it wanted to make—and it made strategic sense. The confab’s organizers were probably pretty pleased with how it went, but it won’t do much to fix the legal and political problems that keep mounting around the president, his family, and his allies.


washingtonmonthly--2020-08-28--Why Democrats Are Pro-Choice, Not Pro-Abortion

Democrats are committed to protecting and advancing reproductive health , rights , and justice .
We believe unequivocally , like the majority of Americans , that every woman should be able to access high-quality reproductive health care services , including safe and legal abortion…Democrats oppose and will fight to overturn federal and state laws that create barriers to reproductive health and rights…We believe that a person ’ s health should always come first .
Democrats will protect the rights of all people to make personal health care decisions .
There are a few things that DeSanctis didn ’ t want @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , she skipped over some of the controversy surrounding Abby Johnson , the anti-legal abortion activist who spoke at the RNC .
DeSanctis wrote that most reports about Johnson ’ s speech at the RNC “ dredged up her controversial comments on other subjects.
” That ’ s an understatement .
Johnson ’ s suggestion that married women should lose their right to vote is pretty relevant .
Back in May , she tweeted support for “ household voting , ” adding that “ a married couple would have to decide on one @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that “ in a Godly household , the husband would get the final say.
” In her article , DeSanctis writes : “ Every abortion ends the life of a distinct , living human being.
” But beyond a simple declarative statement like that , she doesn ’ t want to talk about difficult questions , such as : If abortion involves killing a baby , why would anyone agree to it being legal in the case of rape or incest ?
Or : Aren ’ t women who get abortions guilty , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ murder ?
If so , why shouldn ’ t they be prosecuted ?
To address those questions means getting into areas conservatives want to avoid because it exposes the extremism of their position .
For most people , however , abortion is much more complex .
In recognizing that , the job of Democrats becomes more difficult , as Barack Obama warned us back when he was still a U.S .
Senator .
The bottom line is that our job is harder than the conservatives ’ job .
After all , it ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ policy based solely on unilateral military action , a policy that sounds tough and acts dumb ; it ’ s harder to craft a foreign policy that ’ s tough and smart .
It ’ s easy to dismantle government safety nets ; it ’ s harder to transform those safety nets so that they work for people and can be paid for .
It ’ s easy to embrace a theological absolutism ; it ’ s harder to find the right balance between the legitimate role of faith in our lives and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ But that ’ s our job .
And I firmly believe that whenever we exaggerate or demonize , or oversimplify or overstate our case , we lose .
Whenever we dumb down the political debate , we lose .
Abortion is one of those topics where the job of Democrats is harder because it involves recognizing that human experience doesn ’ t tend to fit neatly into ideological boxes .
I ’ ll end with a personal story that demonstrates the complexity of this issue .
I once knew a 16-year-old who learned @ @ @ @ @ @ @ high school and raise her 18 month-old son .
She didn ’ t want to have an abortion so she set up an appointment with a local adoption agency .
When I asked her how it went , her exact words were : “ I have no choice .
I have to have an abortion.
” That ’ s because she had already named the man who got her pregnant and he wouldn ’ t agree to an adoption , cutting off that avenue for her .
That is precisely why Democrats are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to ensure that women have alternatives and the right to decide what to do with their own bodies .

Democrats are committed to protecting and advancing reproductive health, rights, and justice. We believe unequivocally, like the majority of Americans, that every woman should be able to access high-quality reproductive health care services, including safe and legal abortion…Democrats oppose and will fight to overturn federal and state laws that create barriers to reproductive health and rights…We believe that a person’s health should always come first. Democrats will protect the rights of all people to make personal health care decisions.
There are a few things that DeSanctis didn’t want to talk about. First of all, she skipped over some of the controversy surrounding Abby Johnson, the anti-legal abortion activist who spoke at the RNC. DeSanctis wrote that most reports about Johnson’s speech at the RNC “dredged up her controversial comments on other subjects.” That’s an understatement. Johnson’s suggestion that married women should lose their right to vote is pretty relevant. Back in May, she tweeted support for “household voting,” adding that “a married couple would have to decide on one vote.” She went on to say that “in a Godly household, the husband would get the final say.”
In her article, DeSanctis writes: “Every abortion ends the life of a distinct, living human being.” But beyond a simple declarative statement like that, she doesn’t want to talk about difficult questions, such as: If abortion involves killing a baby, why would anyone agree to it being legal in the case of rape or incest? Or: Aren’t women who get abortions guilty, at minimum, of being accessories to murder? If so, why shouldn’t they be prosecuted? To address those questions means getting into areas conservatives want to avoid because it exposes the extremism of their position.
For most people, however, abortion is much more complex. In recognizing that, the job of Democrats becomes more difficult, as Barack Obama warned us back when he was still a U.S. Senator.
The bottom line is that our job is harder than the conservatives’ job. After all, it’s easy to articulate a belligerent foreign policy based solely on unilateral military action, a policy that sounds tough and acts dumb; it’s harder to craft a foreign policy that’s tough and smart. It’s easy to dismantle government safety nets; it’s harder to transform those safety nets so that they work for people and can be paid for. It’s easy to embrace a theological absolutism; it’s harder to find the right balance between the legitimate role of faith in our lives and the demands of our civic religion. But that’s our job. And I firmly believe that whenever we exaggerate or demonize, or oversimplify or overstate our case, we lose. Whenever we dumb down the political debate, we lose.
Abortion is one of those topics where the job of Democrats is harder because it involves recognizing that human experience doesn’t tend to fit neatly into ideological boxes.
I’ll end with a personal story that demonstrates the complexity of this issue. I once knew a 16-year-old who learned she was pregnant while trying to finish high school and raise her 18 month-old son. She didn’t want to have an abortion so she set up an appointment with a local adoption agency. When I asked her how it went, her exact words were: “I have no choice. I have to have an abortion.” That’s because she had already named the man who got her pregnant and he wouldn’t agree to an adoption, cutting off that avenue for her.
That is precisely why Democrats are pro-choice. It means doing everything necessary to ensure that women have alternatives and the right to decide what to do with their own bodies.


washingtonmonthly--2020-08-28--After the Apocalypse Conventions, the Darkness Lies Ahead

The Democratic and Republican conventions couldn ’ t be more different .
The former emphasized empathy and compassion , the latter celebrated subservience to an autocrat .
But they had one thing in common : Each declared that if the other guys won , they would destroy America .
Biden ’ s convention repeated over and over again that “ democracy is at stake.
” ( I think he ’ s right , for all the reasons you know ) .
The Republican speeches were nuts and even more apocalypto .
Matt Gaetz , the Trump-loving Florida congressman , set @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of Democrats : “ They ’ ll disarm you , empty the prisons , lock you in your home , and invite MS-13 to live next door.
” Mike Pence said : “ The choice in this election is whether America remains America.
” Trump capped the orgy by saying he wouldn ’ t let a radical movement “ completely dismantle and destroy ” America .
I ’ ve tried at times to explain fiercely contested but non-hellscape elections , like Bill Clinton vs. Bob Dole in 1996 and Gerald Ford vs. Jimmy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ son .
I want him to know what it was like before the deluge .
I end up sounding like Grandpa Simpson .
Will raising the stakes raise turnout ?
Will it mobilize one side more than the other ?
Will the Democratic “ coalition of the ascendent , ” as Ronald Brownstein has famously described the alliance of more educated whites , minorities , and the young ?
Or will it be trumped by Trump ’ s rural , white working class , more nativist ensemble ?
We don ’ t know @ @ @ @ @ @ @ work in Biden ’ s favor that get overlooked .
First , Biden ’ s ahead and he ’ s been ahead .
That was no comfort to Presidents Mike Dukakis and Hillary Clinton , but it does suggest that minds are fairly set .
And , in a sense , why wouldn ’ t they be in an Armageddon Election ?
If each side is saying the other represents Armageddon , are you going to wake up one day and decide that , you know , the other side isn ’ t @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and will surely tighten , but the stability of the polls is a good sign for Joe .
Second , presidents who win reelection usually get bigger margins on their second time around .
Since World War II , five presidents have been reelected , four by larger margins than at first .
Dwight Eisenhower , Richard Nixon , Ronald Reagan , and Bill Clinton topped their first-term numbers , with Tricky Dick and The Gipper winning the biggest electoral romps of all time .
Only Barack Obama saw a lower vote reelection @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that proves the rule .
His 2008 victory was born of his mad political skills and a country fed up by the Bush legacy of Katrina , Iraq , and the financial crisis with a pinch of Palin .
He went down a tick in 2012 against Mitt Romney , losing Indiana , for instance , a state the Democrats hadn ’ t even really contested since 1964 .
Going back farther , Woodrow Wilson and Franklin Roosevelt did much better in their second bids .
FDR ’ s 1936 win was a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ t have to face a Howard Taft-Teddy Roosevelt double whammy as he did in 1912 , but still , he ’ d build his popularity .
This isn ’ t just idle history .
It ’ s an omen for Trump .
Reelection bids are famously about the incumbent and if they ’ re going to win it ’ s because they ’ ve made the case to the once skeptical that they ’ re not unqualified lunatics .
Who is going to say that the country has greatly improved under Trump @ @ @ @ @ @ @ those groups that favored him already—white evangelicals , working-class white men , and other assorted Republicans .
It ’ s hard to see Trump getting more votes than he did in 2016 , when he ran against a more easily demonized Hillary Clinton , who was saddled with sexism , Jim Comey , and a media still in the throes of “ But her emails.
” Trump really can ’ t afford to lose any votes as Obama did in 2012 .
His margin is just too narrow .
He lost the popular @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , as you know , built on tiny margins in a few states .
Sure , you say , but Republicans will try to screw with voting—and that may be enough to reelect Trump .
But it ’ s going to be harder this time .
Democrats control the governor ’ s mansion in Michigan , Wisconsin , and North Carolina , which they didn ’ t in 2016 .
That ’ s a big f-ing deal .
Pennsylvania , Minnesota governorships are still in Democratic hands while and Georgia , Arizona , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ limits the chances of ballot canceling like Stacey Abrams faced in her 2018 gubernatorial bid .
It doesn ’ t mean Trump can ’ t steal the election , but it makes it harder .
Biden also has other things in his favor .
Obviously , there ’ s the in-the-toilet economy , quack cures for COVID , and the insane corruption and puerile behavior of the toddler-in-chief .
( Remember : We ’ ve never had an impeached president run for reelection .
Somewhere in the collective psyche , it may still @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a super unified party unlike 2016 when Hillary was still facing disaffected Bernie voters , and Black turnout sank .
The problem for Biden is that the economy is getting better , enough people seem like they ’ re accepting the COVID-19 death count as an Act of God or Freak of Nature than a reflection of his King Joffrey ’ s incompetence .
Maybe Biden wins in a blowout .
Maybe .
But if he doesn ’ t , he ’ s got an electoral problem : picking up just a couple @ @ @ @ @ @ @ enough .
Democrats take Michigan and Pennsylvania—probably the easiest to take back—and they still need Wisconsin or Arizona .
Biden would have to hold the states where Trump lost but was very close—New Hampshire , Minnesota—or pick up the tantalizingly close , increasingly Hispanic gems like Arizona , Georgia , North Carolina .
Good luck with that .
The Midwest states that Clinton , Obama , and Trump won—Ohio and Iowa—have had only moderate Hispanic growth and are rich in white working-class voters .
Hillary did better in Texas than Iowa , even @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 1988 .
The Aragon Conventions are obviously just a preview of the fall ’ s carnage .
Maybe come January it ’ ll lift , like when the McCarthyite fever broke with the Red-baiting senator ’ s Army hearings in 1954 .
The country ’ s madness cooled quickly .
It could happen this time .
But I don ’ t think so .

The Democratic and Republican conventions couldn’t be more different. The former emphasized empathy and compassion, the latter celebrated an autocrat. But they had one thing in common: Each declared that if the other guys won, they would destroy America.
Biden’s convention repeated over and over again that “democracy is at stake.” (I think he’s right, for all the reasons you know). The Republican speeches were nuts and even more apocalypto. Matt Gaetz, the Trump-loving Florida congressman, set the tone for the week by saying of Democrats: “They’ll disarm you, empty the prisons, lock you in your home, and invite MS-13 to live next door.” Mike Pence said: “The choice in this election is whether America remains America.” Trump capped the orgy by saying he wouldn’t let a radical movement “completely dismantle and destroy” America.
I’ve tried at times to explain fiercely contested but non-hellscape elections, like Bill Clinton vs. Bob Dole in 1996 and Gerald Ford vs. Jimmy Carter in 1976 to my 21-year old son. I want him to know what it was like before the deluge. I end up sounding like Grandpa Simpson.
Will raising the stakes raise turnout? Will it mobilize one side more than the other? Will the Democratic “coalition of the ascendent,” as Ronald Brownstein has famously described the alliance of more educated whites, minorities, and the young, be fired up by Joe Biden’s combo of nice-guy-next-door and doomsayer? Or will it be trumped by Trump’s rural, white working class, more nativist ensemble? We don’t know. But some things still seem to work in Biden’s favor that get overlooked.
First, Biden’s ahead and he’s been ahead. That was no comfort to Presidents Mike Dukakis and Hillary Clinton, but it does suggest that minds are fairly set. And, in a sense, why wouldn’t they be in an Armageddon Election? If each side is saying the other represents Armageddon, are you going to wake up one day and decide that, you know, the other side isn’t so bad? The election can change and will surely tighten, but the stability of the polls is a good sign for Joe.
Second, presidents who win reelection usually get bigger margins on their second time around. Since World War II, five presidents have been reelected, four by larger margins than at first. Dwight Eisenhower, Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan, and Bill Clinton topped their first-term numbers, with Tricky Dick and The Gipper winning the biggest electoral romps of all time on their second shot. Only Barack Obama saw a lower vote reelection total and he’s the exception that proves the rule. His 2008 victory was born of his mad political skills and a country fed up by the Bush legacy of Katrina, Iraq, and the financial crisis plus a pinch of Palin. He went down a tick in 2012 against Mitt Romney, losing Indiana, for instance, a state the Democrats hadn’t even really contested since 1964. Going back farther, Woodrow Wilson and Franklin Roosevelt did much better in their second bids. FDR’s 1936 win was a fundamental realignment. Granted, Wilson didn’t have to face a Howard Taft-Teddy Roosevelt double whammy as he did in 1912, but still, he’d build his popularity.
This isn’t just idle history. It’s an omen for Trump. Reelection bids are, as the cliche goes, about the incumbent and if Commander-in-Chief gets reupped it’s because he or she’s made the case to some of the once skeptical that they’re not unqualified lunatics.
Who is going to say that the country has greatly improved under Trump? We know it’ll be those groups that favored him already—white evangelicals, working-class white men, and other assorted Republicans. It’s hard to see Trump getting more votes than he did in 2016, when he ran against a demonized Hillary Clinton, who was saddled with sexism, Jim Comey, and a media still in the throes of “But her emails.” Trump really can’t afford to lose any votes as Obama did in 2012. His margin is just too narrow. He lost the popular vote and his electoral college victory was, as you know, built on tiny margins in a few states.
Sure, you say, but Republicans will try to screw with voting—and that may be enough to reelect Trump. But it’s going to be harder this time. Democrats control the governor’s mansion in Michigan, Wisconsin, and North Carolina which they didn’t in 2016. That’s a big f-ing deal. (Pennsylvania, Minnesota governorships are still in Democratic hands while and Georgia, Arizona, New Hampshire remain under Republican control.) Having a Democratic governor doesn’t eliminate any possibility of malfeasance, but it limits the chances of ballot canceling like Stacey Abrams faced in her 2018 gubernatorial bid. It doesn’t mean Trump can’t steal the election, but it makes it harder.
Biden also has other things in his favor. Obviously, there’s the in-the-toilet economy, quack cures for COVID, and the insane corruption and puerile behavior of the toddler-in-chief. (Remember: We’ve never had an impeached president run for reelection. Somewhere in the collective psyche, it may still matter.) Plus, Biden has a super unified party unlike 2016 when Hillary was still facing disaffected Bernie voters, and Black turnout dipped.
The problem for Biden is that the economy is getting better, enough people seem like they’re accepting the COVID-19 death count as an Act of God or Freak of Nature rather than as a reflection of his King Joffrey’s cruelty.
Maybe Biden wins in a blowout. Maybe. But if he doesn’t, he’s got an electoral problem: picking up just a couple of the barely-Trump states isn’t enough. Democrats take Michigan and Pennsylvania—probably the easiest to take back—and they still need Wisconsin or Arizona.
Biden would have to hold the states where Trump lost but was very close to winning—New Hampshire, Minnesota—or pick up the tantalizingly close, increasingly Hispanic gems like Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina. Good luck with that. The Midwest states that Clinton, Obama, and Trump won—Ohio and Iowa—have had only moderate Hispanic growth and are rich in white working-class voters and are a reach for Biden. In 2016 for instance, Hillary did better in Texas than Iowa, even though the state had gone Democratic since 1988.
The Hellscape Conventions are obviously just a preview of the fall’s carnage. Maybe come January it’ll lift, like when the McCarthyite fever broke in 1954 when the Wisconsin bully got bodyslammed in his hearings about Communists in the Army. The country’s madness cooled quickly. It could happen this time. But I don’t think so.


washingtonmonthly--2020-08-29--The Republicans’ Newest Plan to Derail Voting Rights

There ’ s good and bad news for states and municipalities fighting the Trump administration ’ s efforts to slow the Postal Service and stymie the election .
The good news is that is that there ’ s an alternative way for voters to deliver their ballots without mailing them back or going to a polling place .
They can place them in a so-called drop box , secure receptables where ballots are collected by election officials .
Think of a return box at your local library .
The bad news is that Trump and the Republicans are going after @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the president tweeted that drop boxes were a “ voter security disaster ” that are “ not Covid sanitized .
A big fraud !
” ( Twitter flagged the post for spreading misinformation that could dissuade people from voting . )
Yet Trump ’ s tweet reflects yet another Republicans tactic to make it harder for people to vote this November .
In numerous states under GOP control , officials are restricting the use of drop boxes .
In Ohio , the Republican-controlled legislature rushed through emergency legislation in March that allowed only @ @ @ @ @ @ @ there would just be one receptacle for more than one million voters in the densely populated Cuyahoga County , which includes the Democratic stronghold of Cleveland .
Conversely , Vinton County with a population of just 13,400 would also have one drop box .
It was signed into law by Republican Governor Mike DeWine .
In Missouri , Republican Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft has refused to distribute 85 drop boxes that the state has already paid for and is holding in storage .
In Tennessee , GOP Secretary of State Tre Hargett @ @ @ @ @ @ @ drop boxes .
He said in July that doing so would violate state law .
In Iowa , Republican Secretary of State has said that drop boxes can ’ t be used .
Even in states not under GOP control , Republican attempts to limit the use of drop boxes are having success .
In Pennsylvania , the Trump is filing lawsuits in both state and federal court that , among other things , questions the legality of drop boxes .
According to one Pennsylvania election official , the lawsuits have scared counties @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fear that the cost of litigation would eat up precious funds for running the election , at a time when revenues are tight .
Officials are also worried about buying and distributing the boxes and only to be told they are not allowed .
“ I think that the lawsuits have definitely given a lot of the counties pause while there is an outstanding legal question , ” Lisa Schaeffer , executive director of the County Commissioners Association of Pennsylvania , told me .
Allegheny County , home to Pittsburgh , one of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , will not make a use a single drop box available to its 1.2 million residents .
At the same time , the entire state of North Carolina , despite having a Democratic Governor and a Democratic Secretary of State , will not have any drop boxes , either .
That ’ s because of a 2019 law the places tight restrictions on absentee ballots .
It came after a 2018 incident in which a Republican operative was caught committing election fraud with absentee ballot .
“ North Carolina law requires that absentee @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in by the county Board of elections , ” the State Board of Elections ’ public information officer , Patrick Gannon , told me .
“ They have a log of who dropped it off , whose ballot it is .
The law requires that only a person or a near relative or legal guardian can possess or drop off a ballot for an individual .
Drop boxes would not allow that law to be followed.
” ( North Carolinians are allowed to return their ballots at early voting sites , which are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ course , when that bill was written , nobody knew of a looming pandemic .
But when voting rights activists pushed for changes to the code recently to allow for drop boxes because of the coming surge of mail-in voting , Republicans who control the state legislature blocked them .
Then , several advocacy groups filed a lawsuit to change the state ’ s election laws .
A U.S. District Court Judge appointed by George W. Bush did grant one of the plaintiffs ’ requests—to let voters fix problems with their mailed-in ballots—but @ @ @ @ @ @ @ creating “ contactless drop boxes for absentee ballots.
” Republicans are making it hard to vote even where drop boxes are set up and working .
In Ohio , for example , each county ’ s drop box will be outside of that county ’ s board of elections .
That sounds innocuous enough , but consider Hamilton County , which includes Cincinnati .
It recently moved its board of elections site from downtown Cincinnati to the northern part of the city , making it much harder to access without a car .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ non-centrally located areas of a county is detrimental , especially , most likely , to communities of color , poor communities , communities that rely on public transportation and can ’ t take work off to cast their ballot in the drop box , ” said Collin Marozzi , policy strategist for the ACLU of Ohio In response , Ohio Democrats sued Republican Secretary of State Frank LaRose to force a rescission of his guidance , based on the emergency bill passed in March , to allow only one drop box per county @ @ @ @ @ @ @ court issued a stay on the Trump campaign ’ s federal lawsuitwhile the state court case moved forward , leaving election officials in limbo about whether they should purchase and plan to disseminate drop boxes .
“ Obviously , some clarity on how counties are able to use drop boxes before November would be greatly appreciated , ” Schaeffer said .
It ’ s understandable why Republicans trying to hamper vote by mail would attack drop boxes : They are hugely popular .
In Colorado , Oregon , and Washington , more than @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to a drop box or to an election office in the 2016 presidential election , according to a MIT survey .
That ’ s why the accurate term for the voting system is actually vote at home .
“ Many voters receive their ballots by mail , but they do not cast their ballot by mail , ” said Chris Mann , a voting expert at Skidmore College .
“ Voting by mail is a misnomer for a huge number of voters .
People receive their ballot by mail and then return it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ people want to do this because they don ’ t quite trust the Postal Service.
” If anything , trust in the USPS has only weakened since Trump ’ s postmaster general , Louis DeJoy , a major GOP donor , enacted a raft of changes with the stated aim of cutting costs , such as cutting overtime pay for postal workers , that delayed mail delivery nationwide .
DeJoy said last week he would suspend those changes until after the election , but he also said that he would not restore the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ he has done is likely irreversible before Election Day .
DeJoy ’ s spree of destruction makes the fair and widespread use drop boxes essential this fall .
There are currently more than 180 coronavirus-related election lawsuits pending , many of which with drop boxes at their center .
And with Mitch McConnell refusing to take up a House bill that would direct $ 25 billion in federal aid to help states and municipalities switch to vote by mail , some philanthropic dollars are being funneled to cover costs .
The nonprofit Center @ @ @ @ @ @ @ instance , recently gave Philadelphia a $ 10 million grant to open more polling places across the city and distribute 15 additional drop boxes .
That ’ s a good start , but it ’ s likely not enough for the nation ’ s election officials to surmount the GOP ’ s multi-front war on voting .

There’s good and bad news for states and municipalities fighting the Trump administration’s efforts to slow the Postal Service and stymie the election. The good news is that there’s an alternative way for voters to deliver their ballots without mailing them back or going to a polling place. They can place them in a so-called drop box, secure receptacles where ballots are collected by election officials. Think of a return box at your local library.
The bad news is that Trump and the Republicans are going after those, too. Last weekend, the president tweeted that drop boxes were a “voter security disaster” that are “not Covid sanitized. A big fraud!” (Twitter flagged the post for spreading misinformation that could dissuade people from voting.)
Trump’s tweet reflects yet another Republican tactic to make it harder for people to vote this November. In numerous states under GOP control, officials are restricting the use of drop boxes. In Ohio, the Republican-controlled legislature rushed through emergency legislation in March that allowed only one drop box per county, meaning there would just be one receptacle for more than one million voters in the densely populated Cuyahoga County, which includes the Democratic stronghold of Cleveland. Conversely, Vinton County with a population of just 13,400 would also have one drop box. It was signed into law by Republican Governor Mike DeWine. In Missouri, Republican Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft has refused to distribute 85 drop boxes that the state has already paid for and is holding in storage. In Tennessee, GOP Secretary of State Tre Hargett has likely scared off voters from using drop boxes. He said in July that doing so would violate state law. In Iowa, Republican Secretary of State has said that drop boxes can’t be used.
Even in states not under GOP control, Republican attempts to limit the use of drop boxes are having success. In Pennsylvania, the Trump campaign is filing lawsuits in both state and federal court that, among other things, questions the legality of drop boxes.
According to one Pennsylvania election official, the lawsuits have scared counties off from ordering drop boxes, for fear that the cost of litigation would eat up precious funds for running the election, at a time when revenues are tight. Officials are also worried about buying and distributing the boxes, only to be told they are not allowed. “I think that the lawsuits have definitely given a lot of the counties pause while there is an outstanding legal question,” Lisa Schaeffer, executive director of the County Commissioners Association of Pennsylvania, told me. Allegheny County, home to Pittsburgh, one of the most Democratic cities in the state, as of now plans to have just one drop box available to its 1.2 million residents.
At the same time, the entire state of North Carolina, despite having a Democratic Governor and a Democratic Secretary of State, will not have any drop boxes, either. That’s because of a 2019 law that places tight restrictions on voting from home. It came after a 2018 incident in which a Republican operative was caught committing election fraud with absentee ballots.
“North Carolina law requires that absentee ballots that are dropped off be logged in by the county Board of Elections,” the State Board of Elections’ spokesman, Patrick Gannon, told me. “They have a log of who dropped it off, whose ballot it is. The law requires that only a person or a near relative or legal guardian can possess or drop off a ballot for an individual. Drop boxes would not allow that law to be followed.” (North Carolinians are permitted to return their ballots at early voting sites, which are open for 17 days.)
Of course, when that bill was written, nobody knew of a looming pandemic. But when voting rights activists pushed recently for changes to the code to allow for drop boxes because of the coming surge of mail-in voting, Republicans who control the state legislature refused.
Then, several advocacy groups filed a lawsuit to change the state’s election laws. A U.S. District Court Judge appointed by George W. Bush did grant one of the plaintiffs’ requests—to let voters cure any problems that may arise with their mailed-in ballots—but he did not rule in favor of creating “contactless drop boxes for absentee ballots.”
Republicans are making it hard to vote even where drop boxes are set up and working. In Ohio, for example, each county’s drop box will be located outside of that county’s board of elections buildings. That sounds innocuous enough, but consider Hamilton County, which includes Cincinnati. It recently moved its board of elections site from downtown Cincinnati to the northern part of the city, making it much harder to access without a car.
“A single drop box in perhaps non-centrally located areas of a county is detrimental, especially, most likely, to communities of color, poor communities, communities that rely on public transportation and can’t take work off to cast their ballot in the drop box,” said Collin Marozzi, policy strategist for the ACLU of Ohio.
In response, Ohio Democrats sued Republican Secretary of State Frank LaRose to force a rescission of his guidance to allow only one drop box per county, based on the emergency bill passed in March.
In Pennsylvania, a U.S. district court issued a stay on the Trump campaign’s federal lawsuit while the state court case moves forward, leaving election officials in limbo about whether they should purchase and plan to disseminate the receptacles. “Obviously, some clarity on how counties are able to use drop boxes before November would be greatly appreciated,” Schaeffer said.
It’s understandable why Republicans trying to hamper vote by mail would attack drop boxes: They are hugely popular. In Colorado, Oregon, and Washington, more than half of mail ballots were returned either to a drop box or to an election office in the 2016 presidential election, according to an MIT survey. That’s why the more accurate term for the system is actually “vote at home,” rather than vote by mail.
“Many voters receive their ballots by mail, but they do not cast their ballot by mail,” said Chris Mann, a voting expert at Skidmore College. “Voting by mail is a misnomer for a huge number of voters. People receive their ballot by mail and then return it some other way. A lot of people want to do this because they don’t quite trust the Postal Service.”
If anything, trust in the USPS has only weakened since Trump’s postmaster general, Louis DeJoy, a major GOP donor, enacted a raft of changes with the stated aim of reducing costs, like cutting overtime pay for postal workers, that dramatically delayed mail delivery nationwide. DeJoy said last week he would suspend those changes until after the election, but he also said that he would not restore the machines or boxes the agency removed.
Unfortunately, the damage he has done is likely irreversible before Election Day. DeJoy’s spree of destruction, therefore, makes the fair and widespread use of drop boxes essential this fall.
There are currently more than 180 coronavirus-related election lawsuits pending, many of which with drop boxes at their center. And with Mitch McConnell refusing to take up a House bill that would direct $25 billion in federal aid to help states and municipalities switch to vote by mail, some philanthropic dollars are being funneled to cover costs. The nonprofit Center for Tech and Civic Life, for instance, recently gave Philadelphia a $10 million grant to open more polling places across the city and distribute 15 additional drop boxes.
That’s a good start, but it won’t be enough for the nation’s election officials to surmount the GOP’s multi-front war on voting.


washingtonmonthly--2020-08-28--How Trump Inoculates His Supporters Against Reality

Donald Trump has failed at almost every venture he has undertaken .
That started long before his presidency , with a string of business failures .
Nevertheless , he has excelled as a con artist .
That is demonstrated by the question that has haunted so many of us over the last four years : why are his supporters so loyal , no matter what he says or does ?
A lot of ink has been spilled over that question .
Much of it has focused on what makes his supporters so vulnerable to a con job .
But in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ term “ epistemic closure , ” the writer Julian Sanchez has provided us with insight into how Trump inoculates his followers from reality , truth , and facts .
The first thing Sanchez , a Senior Fellow at the CATO Institute , does is clarify what he did and didn ’ t mean by epistemic closure .
So an “ echo chamber ” just means you never hear any contrary information .
The idea of “ epistemic closure ” was that you WOULD hear new and contrary information , but you have mechanisms @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that might force you to update your beliefs… I bring this up now , because the Trump ecosystem has developed a pretty sophisticated set of epistemic closure mechanisms that work to reject new information that might otherwise pose a problem .
The closure mechanisms Trump set up to inoculate his followers include his references to things like the deep state , fake news , and the swamp .
Once people buy into those , they can reject any information that comes from those sources .
But it doesn ’ t end there .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ judo-flip [ contradictory information ] into confirmation of the preexisting narrative , rather than new contradictory data.
” In doing so , Trump actually turns those who challenge him into targets that reinforce his delusional lies .
When intelligence sources tell us that Trump knew about Russia putting a bounty on U.S. soldiers in Afghanistan and ignored it , that is simply the deep state at work trying to undermine the president .
When fact-checkers expose Trump ’ s lies , it is just fake news .
When former administration officials decry the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ swamp .
That is how Trump inoculates his supporters and ensures that the epistemic bubble in which they live is secure .
The good news , as Sanchez points out , is that “ closed belief systems like this tend to be strong but brittle.
” Once something penetrates them , even if it is small , the whole thing bursts .
That is precisely what is happening with at least some Republicans who have stepped out of the bubble .
But the bad news is that the inoculation is especially effective for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Christian nationalists .
The bottom line is that whenever you hear Trump supporters snarl at the deep state or fake news , you can rest assured that arguments based on facts or policy will not penetrate their bubble .
They ’ ve been inoculated .

Donald Trump has failed at almost every venture he has undertaken. That started long before his presidency, with a string of business failures. Nevertheless, he has excelled as a con artist. That is demonstrated by the question that has haunted so many of us over the last four years: why are his supporters so loyal, no matter what he says or does?
A lot of ink has been spilled over that question. Much of it has focused on what makes his supporters so vulnerable to a con job. But in an expansion of his use of the term “epistemic closure,” the writer Julian Sanchez has provided us with insight into how Trump inoculates his followers from reality, truth, and facts.
The first thing Sanchez, a Senior Fellow at the CATO Institute, does is clarify what he did and didn’t mean by epistemic closure.
So an “echo chamber” just means you never hear any contrary information. The idea of “epistemic closure” was that you WOULD hear new and contrary information, but you have mechanisms in your belief system that reject anything that might force you to update your beliefs… I bring this up now, because the Trump ecosystem has developed a pretty sophisticated set of epistemic closure mechanisms that work to reject new information that might otherwise pose a problem.
The closure mechanisms Trump set up to inoculate his followers include his references to things like the deep state, fake news, and the swamp. Once people buy into those, they can reject any information that comes from those sources. But it doesn’t end there. As Sanchez explains, they “effectively judo-flip [contradictory information] into confirmation of the preexisting narrative, rather than new contradictory data.” In doing so, Trump actually turns those who challenge him into targets that reinforce his delusional lies.
When intelligence sources tell us that Trump knew about Russia putting a bounty on U.S. soldiers in Afghanistan and ignored it, that is simply the deep state at work trying to undermine the president. When fact-checkers expose Trump’s lies, it is just fake news. When former administration officials decry the president, they are part of the swamp. That is how Trump inoculates his supporters and ensures that the epistemic bubble in which they live is secure.
The good news, as Sanchez points out, is that “closed belief systems like this tend to be strong but brittle.” Once something penetrates them, even if it is small, the whole thing bursts. That is precisely what is happening with at least some Republicans who have stepped out of the bubble. But the bad news is that the inoculation is especially effective for those who are already entrenched in authoritarianism—like Christian nationalists.
The bottom line is that whenever you hear Trump supporters snarl at the deep state or fake news, you can rest assured that arguments based on facts or policy will not penetrate their bubble. They’ve been inoculated.


washingtonmonthly--2020-08-28--We Don’t Need Another Sister Souljah Moment

Robert Tracinski of The Bulwark makes a good point when he warns that the “ Republicans will spend hundreds of millions of dollars over the next ten weeks trying to convince voters that they should punish Democrats for tolerating or excusing lawless violence.
” This was clear during the Republican National Convention .
Tracisnki is also correct in advising Joe Biden to tackle the issue head-on , but his recommendation that Biden dedicate a whole month to revisiting Bill Clinton ’ s 1992 Sister Souljah Moment shows just how out of touch he is with the politics of the left @ @ @ @ @ @ @ King riots , the rapper Sister Souljah made some very impolitic remarks .
Most controversially , she suggested it would be a good idea if Black gang members took a week off from killing each other to focus on killing white people .
She then appeared at Jesse Jackson ’ s Rainbow Convention in June 1992 , the day before Bill Clinton was scheduled to speak .
The Clinton campaign team wanted to create some distance from Jackson and they didn ’ t want to be tarnished by association with Souljah , so @ @ @ @ @ @ @ condemn some of Souljah ’ s most incendiary lyrics and remarks .
Jesse Jackson was furious , but the press loved it and has spent the last 28 years celebrating Clinton ’ s act of independence .
Of course , Bill Clinton did not win an election in November 1992 because of remarks he made five months earlier at the Rainbow Convention .
It was a conversation piece in June , well before the party conventions or the debates with Poppy Bush and Ross Perot .
Most observers credit Clinton ’ s laser @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for his success , and they ’ re probably right .
It ’ s true that Toni Morrison once called Bill Clinton “ American ’ s first black president , ” but the Sister Souljah Moment caused lasting hurt .
It wasn ’ t because he had objected to the idea that Black gang members kill some white people for a change , but because he used the stage at Jackson ’ s convention to seemingly marginalize the movement .
It would have been worse if Clinton dwelled on the rapper for a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ t want to talk about the racial justice protests , so they focus on the looting .
The Democrats don ’ t want to talk about the looting , mainly because it ’ s a distraction from the need for police reform .
Biden ’ s response has been to praise the protesters and their cause while condemning violence and lawlessness .
He will have to go through many iterations of this dance between now and November , but the steps should remain the same .
In the wake of the Jacob Blake @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is in tremendous pain .
Black athletes are boycotting games and practices , not only to protest but also to mourn .
It ’ s hard to focus on your job when you ’ re overcome with grief .
Biden needs to take this moment to show he can lead us to a better place .
He can ’ t do that by joining the Republicans in making this all about the looting .
The last thing we need right now is for both white presidential candidates using the Black community as a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lawlessness .

Robert Tracinski of The Bulwark makes a good point when he warns that the “Republicans will spend hundreds of millions of dollars over the next ten weeks trying to convince voters that they should punish Democrats for tolerating or excusing lawless violence.” This was clear during the Republican National Convention. Tracisnki is also correct in advising Joe Biden to tackle the issue head-on, but his recommendation that Biden dedicate a whole month to revisiting Bill Clinton’s 1992 Sister Souljah Moment shows just how out of touch he is with the politics of the left.
In the aftermath of the Rodney King riots, the rapper Sister Souljah made some very impolitic remarks. Most controversially, she suggested it would be a good idea if Black gang members took a week off from killing each other to focus on killing white people. She then appeared at Jesse Jackson’s Rainbow Convention in June 1992, the day before Bill Clinton was scheduled to speak. The Clinton campaign team wanted to create some distance from Jackson and they didn’t want to be tarnished by association with Souljah, so the future president took the opportunity to condemn some of Souljah’s most incendiary lyrics and remarks. Jesse Jackson was furious, but the press loved it and has spent the last 28 years celebrating Clinton’s act of independence.
Of course, Bill Clinton did not win an election in November 1992 because of remarks he made five months earlier at the Rainbow Convention. It was a conversation piece in June, well before the party conventions or the debates with Poppy Bush and Ross Perot. Most observers credit Clinton’s laser focus on the economy as the reason for his success, and they’re probably right.
It’s true that Toni Morrison once called Bill Clinton “American’s first black president,” but the Sister Souljah Moment caused lasting hurt. It wasn’t because he had objected to the idea that Black gang members kill some white people for a change, but because he used the stage at Jackson’s convention to seemingly marginalize the movement. It would have been worse if Clinton dwelled on the rapper for a whole month.
The Republicans don’t want to talk about the racial justice protests, so they focus on the looting. The Democrats don’t want to talk about the looting, mainly because it’s a distraction from the need for police reform. Biden’s response has been to praise the protesters and their cause while condemning violence and lawlessness. He will have to go through many iterations of this dance between now and November, but the steps should remain the same.
In the wake of the Jacob Blake shooting in Wisconsin, the Black community is in tremendous pain. Black athletes are boycotting games and practices, not only to protest but also to mourn. It’s hard to focus on your job when you’re overcome with grief.
Biden needs to take this moment to show he can lead us to a better place. He can’t do that by joining the Republicans in making this all about the looting. The last thing we need right now is for both white presidential candidates using the Black community as a punching bag by associating their grievances with lawlessness.


washingtonmonthly--2020-08-29--Trump’s Message Isn’t Confused. He’s Promising A Dictatorship.

“ Make America Great Again , Again.
” “ You Won ’ t Be Safe In Joe Biden ’ s America.
” If the themes of the Republican National Convention seemed preposterous and confused , it ’ s because to any rational observer they are .
Despite nearly four years in office , Trump has so obviously failed on the job that his own vice president is asking for a do-over .
The president and his campaign are trying to project the sense of unease and violence taking place under his reign onto a hypothetical Biden administration—including by using footage @ @ @ @ @ @ @ but in Barcelona .
Is this the sign of flailing campaign deeply behind in the polls , responsible for an unprecedentedly disastrous response to a pandemic and a tone-deaf answer to protests against police violence ?
Yes , certainly .
But there ’ s also a deeper subtext : Trump is implicitly promising a no-holds barred authoritarianism if he wins a second term .
There is a throughline between the joyfully flagrant lawbreaking in putting campaign signs right in front of the White House , the scuttling of any actual RNC platform in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ jokes ” about ruling for another 12 years , the lack of any coherent policy vision for a second term , and the implication that the protests will somehow stop if Trump wins re-election .
It ’ s the same message Fox News talking heads are sending by celebrating a teenaged Trump supporter who allegedly crossed state lines with the intention of shooting protesters and murdered two people .
It ’ s the same implication QAnon makes about why the long-promised “ storm ” hasn ’ t happened yet .
The message @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the meager constraints that have shackled him in his first term , to unleash a full authoritarian nightmare in his second—and beyond .
The RNC doesn ’ t need a platform because it will be whatever Trump wants .
There won ’ t be any more racial justice protests because Trump will just put them down as brutally as Putin does , with the help of the “ very fine people ” in the far-right militias to whom he gives tacit or not-so-tacit consent .
There won ’ t be any more Constitutional @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , because he doesn ’ t intend to follow that law any closer than he follows the Hatch Act .
There won ’ t be any check on the ability of his personal vizier Attorney General to lock up political opposition on any supposed pretext .
He will lead the final charge and conquest by Red America over Blue Non-America .
It ’ s a standard authoritarian playbook , and Trump is broadcasting it as openly as he dares in the last election year that his opposition has a chance to do something @ @ @ @ @ @ @ seems confused because he and his Republican allies don ’ t quite dare to say it full aloud just yet .
But his base can hear it loud and clear .
It ’ s no exaggeration to say that this is the most important election in modern American history .
Democracy itself is at stake .

“Make America Great Again, Again.” “You Won’t Be Safe In Joe Biden’s America.”
If the themes of the Republican National Convention seemed preposterous and confused, it’s because to any rational observer they are. Despite nearly four years in office, Trump has so obviously failed on the job that his own vice president is asking for a do-over. The president and his campaign are trying to project the sense of unease and violence taking place under his reign onto a hypothetical Biden administration—including by using footage of protests not in the U.S., but in Barcelona.
Is this the sign of a failing campaign deeply behind in the polls, responsible for an unprecedentedly disastrous response to a pandemic and a tone-deaf answer to protests against police violence? Yes, certainly. But there’s also a deeper subtext: Trump is implicitly promising a no-holds-barred authoritarianism if he wins a second term.
There is a throughline between the joyfully flagrant lawbreaking in putting campaign signs right in front of the White House, the scuttling of any actual RNC platform in favor of whatever Trump wants, the “jokes” about ruling for another 12 years, the lack of any coherent policy vision for a second term, and the implication that the protests will somehow stop if Trump wins re-election. It’s the same message Fox News talking heads are sending by celebrating a teenaged Trump supporter who allegedly crossed state lines with the intention of shooting protesters and murdered two people. It’s the same implication QAnon makes about why the long-promised “storm” hasn’t happened yet.
The message is that Trump will break free of the meager constraints that have shackled him in his first term, to unleash a full authoritarian nightmare in his second—and beyond. The RNC doesn’t need a platform because it will be whatever Trump wants. There won’t be any more racial justice protests because Trump will just put them down as brutally as Putin does, with the help of the “very fine people” in the far-right militias to whom he gives tacit or not-so-tacit consent. There won’t be any more Constitutional constraints on his becoming president for life, because he doesn’t intend to follow that law any closer than he follows the Hatch Act. There won’t be any check on the ability of his personal vizier Attorney General to lock up political opposition on any supposed pretext. He will lead the final charge and conquest by Red America over Blue Non-America.
It’s a standard authoritarian playbook, and Trump is broadcasting it as openly as he dares in the last election year that his opposition has a chance to do something to stop him. The message only seems confused because he and his Republican allies don’t quite dare to say it full aloud just yet. But his base can hear it loud and clear.
It’s no exaggeration to say that this is the most important election in modern American history. Democracy itself is at stake.


washingtonmonthly--2020-08-27--What Will It Take to End the Police Shootings?

On Wednesday , professional sports came to a complete halt .
The National Basketball Association , Major League Baseball , Women ’ s National Basketball Association , and Major League Soccer all saw major boycotts over the shooting of Jacob Blake , an African-American man from Kenosha , Wisc .
who was shot in the back seven times by a white member of the small city ’ s police force .
The boycott avalanche started when the Milwaukee Bucks , whose home is about 30 miles from where Blake was shot , decided to boycott their playoff game with the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Despite attempts to paint professional athletes as privileged and ungrateful , it is important to keep in mind that neither their money nor status protects them from abuse by law enforcement .
Sterling Brown , a member of the Bucks and the son of a police officer , is a prime example .
Two years ago , Milwaukee police wrestled him to the ground , tased him , and hauled him off to jail over what they claimed was a parking violation .
By Wednesday night , play had not only been @ @ @ @ @ @ @ had been joined by most professional sport leagues .
Two-time grand slam winner Naomi Osaka also pulled out of a tennis tournament .
The WNBA ’ s Washington Mystics staged a powerful statement as part of their protest .
All of this took place on the fourth anniversary of the first time Colin Kaepernick took a knee during the national anthem to protest police shootings of unarmed Black people .
You might recall that both the San Francisco 49ers Quarterback and the athletes who joined him became political fodder for Trump and his @ @ @ @ @ @ @ happens now ?
No one knows .
But William Rhoden summed the situation up well .
Meanwhile , now would be a good time for the country to actually listen to what these folks are saying .
Los Angeles Clippers coach Doc Rivers obviously spoke from the heart .
Just as these coaches and athletes stopped playing , Trevor Noah dropped the comedy and got angry .
That was similar to what Letetra Widman , Jacob Blake ’ s sister , said about how she ’ s feeling these days .
Black people @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not , are telling us that the killing by police officers has to stop .
With protests in the streets and a halt to most professional sports , what is it going to take to make that happen ?

On Wednesday, professional sports came to a complete halt. The National Basketball Association, Major League Baseball, Women’s National Basketball Association, and Major League Soccer all saw major boycotts over the shooting of Jacob Blake, an African-American man from Kenosha, Wisc. who was shot in the back seven times by a white member of the small city’s police force.
The boycott avalanche started when the Milwaukee Bucks, whose home is about 30 miles from where Blake was shot, decided to boycott their playoff game with the Orlando Magic. Here is their statement.
Despite attempts to paint professional athletes as privileged and ungrateful, it is important to keep in mind that neither their money nor status protects them from abuse by law enforcement. Sterling Brown, a member of the Bucks and the son of a police officer, is a prime example. Two years ago, Milwaukee police wrestled him to the ground, tased him, and hauled him off to jail over what they claimed was a parking violation.
By Wednesday night, play had not only been suspended for the NBA, the boycott had been joined by most professional sport leagues. Two-time grand slam winner Naomi Osaka also pulled out of a tennis tournament. The WNBA’s Washington Mystics staged a powerful statement as part of their protest.
All of this took place on the fourth anniversary of the first time Colin Kaepernick took a knee during the national anthem to protest police shootings of unarmed Black people. You might recall that both the San Francisco 49ers Quarterback and the athletes who joined him became political fodder for Trump and his enablers—and the shootings continued.
So what happens now? No one knows. But William Rhoden summed the situation up well.
What do you say when words are not enough, when gestures are no longer sufficient? What happens when your actions are no longer seen, your words fall on deaf ears and all that is left is unsatisfied justice? Don’t play.
Meanwhile, now would be a good time for the country to actually listen to what these folks are saying. Los Angeles Clippers coach Doc Rivers obviously spoke from the heart.
Just as these coaches and athletes stopped playing, Trevor Noah dropped the comedy and got angry.
That was similar to what Letetra Widman, Jacob Blake’s sister, said about how she’s feeling these days.
Black people, whether they’re athletes or not, are telling us that the killing by police officers has to stop. With protests in the streets and a halt to most professional sports, what is it going to take to make that happen?


washingtonmonthly--2020-08-30--Trump Got a Bounce From His Convention. Biden Didn’t. There’s a Lesson There.

Two new polls are in , and it looks like Donald Trump did get a measurable bounce from the GOP convention .
Joe Biden , meanwhile , got a modest approval rating boost but no polling bounce from the Democratic convention .
There ’ s probably a lesson there for Democrats .
A new Morning Consult poll today shows a 4-point shift from a pre-convention Biden lead of 10 points to a post-convention 6-point lead , shifting from 52 % -42 % to 50 % -44 % among likely voters .
A new Yahoo/YouGov poll shows a 3-point post-convention shift @ @ @ @ @ @ @ : from 49 % -40 % to 47 % -41 % among registered voters for Biden .
While more more polling will help solidify the data , and the state of play in the swing states will be more immediately relevant than the national picture , it seems reasonable to speculate that the GOP had a moderately successful convention–however much it may have horrified those with liberal political sensibilities .
Of course , there is some question about how much it matters .
Convention bounces tend to be ephemeral and ever-shrinking in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s self-destructive behavior is likely to combine with bad news about the pandemic and the economy to bring the race back to its pre-convention stable state .
It ’ s also important to note that Biden ’ s 7-10 point average lead means he was already overperforming the partisan makeup of the nation and didn ’ t have a lot of room to grow his advantage .
So perhaps the best Biden could have hoped for was improving his image among those least familiar with him , and perhaps doing no harm to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ voters already leaning his way was the best the Democratic convention could have accomplished .
That said , it ’ s important to not to overlook the facts : Trump ’ s convention was oriented around his base , elevating speakers throwing red meat to extremists , horrifying the left and making no effort whatsoever to reach out to moderates–and the president was apparently rewarded for that with a convention bounce .
Biden ’ s convention was oriented almost entirely around outreach to moderates and conservatives , elevating literal Republican voices and mostly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ received no bounce at all .
It ’ s also disturbing when you consider other intangible factors ranging from audience to expectations .
Three million more viewers tuned into the DNC Convention than the RNC Convention .
And while Biden has long been in the public spotlight , he has also been four years out of the vice-presidency , while Trump has been drawing all the political oxygen in the country for years now .
So in theory , Biden had more to gain from a re-introduction to the public eye , while @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the current president .
Republicans also badly mismanaged the convention expectations by most standard political analyses , portraying Biden as a declining mental incompetent and Trump as a glorious God Emperor .
So when Biden gave a commanding performance in his speech and Trump lolled through a boring teleprompter reading , that should in theory have redounded to Biden ’ s advantage .
So the fact that Trump got a polling bounce while Biden did not is deeply problematic .
The best that could be said is that the DNC convention did Biden @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is already overperforming base partisanship among likely voters .
But Trump is also failing so profoundly as a president that it says something disturbing either about the electorate or the DNC ’ s messaging strategy that Team Biden could not capitalize on Trump ’ s disasters over the course of four days ’ s attention from 20 million viewers , to even shift the polling by a single percentage point .
It was more forgivable when there was speculation that no convention bounces could be expected for either side .
But Trump ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ available evidence suggests that mobilizing a partisan base , appealing to core values , and making the strongest , most emotional possible case against an opponent to maximize negative partisanship is the best way to a run a national convention .
Anyone whom Biden could reach with a cross-partisan outreach strategy had evidently already been reached .
Meanwhile , there is clearly a section of the electorate that was either flirting with voting for Biden , thinking of skipping the election or even refusing to answer polls , who were inspired to come @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the RNC convention .
That should be a lesson Democrats take to heart looking forward toward 2024 and beyond .

Two new polls are in, and it looks like Donald Trump did get a measurable bounce from the GOP convention. Joe Biden, meanwhile, got a modest approval rating boost but no polling bounce from the Democratic convention. There’s probably a lesson there for Democrats.
A new Morning Consult poll today shows a 4-point shift from a pre-convention Biden lead of 10 points to a post-convention 6-point lead, shifting from 52%-42% to 50%-44% among likely voters. A new Yahoo/YouGov poll shows a 3-point post-convention shift to Trump from 9 to 6 points: from 49%-40% to 47%-41% among registered voters for Biden. While more more polling will help solidify the data, and the state of play in the swing states will be more immediately relevant than the national picture, it seems reasonable to speculate that the GOP had a moderately successful convention–however much it may have horrified those with liberal political sensibilities.
Of course, there is some question about how much it matters. Convention bounces tend to be ephemeral and ever-shrinking in the modern polarized era, and Trump’s self-destructive behavior is likely to combine with bad news about the pandemic and the economy to bring the race back to its pre-convention stable state. It’s also important to note that Biden’s 7-10 point average lead means he was already overperforming the partisan makeup of the nation and didn’t have a lot of room to grow his advantage. So perhaps the best Biden could have hoped for was improving his image among those least familiar with him, and perhaps doing no harm to his image with moderate and conservative crossover voters already leaning his way was the best the Democratic convention could have accomplished.
That said, it’s important to not to overlook the facts: Trump’s convention was oriented around his base, elevating speakers throwing red meat to extremists, horrifying the left and making no effort whatsoever to reach out to moderates–and the president was apparently rewarded for that with a convention bounce. Biden’s convention was oriented almost entirely around outreach to moderates and conservatives, elevating literal Republican voices and mostly silencing his left flank–and the Democratic nominee received no bounce at all.
It’s also disturbing when you consider other intangible factors ranging from audience to expectations. Three million more viewers tuned into the DNC Convention than the RNC Convention. And while Biden has long been in the public spotlight, he has also been four years out of the vice-presidency, while Trump has been drawing all the political oxygen in the country for years now. So in theory, Biden had more to gain from a re-introduction to the public eye, while most persuadable voters have largely tuned out the current president. Republicans also badly mismanaged the convention expectations by most standard political analyses, portraying Biden as a declining mental incompetent and Trump as a glorious God Emperor. So when Biden gave a commanding performance in his speech and Trump lolled through a boring teleprompter reading, that should in theory have redounded to Biden’s advantage.
So the fact that Trump got a polling bounce while Biden did not is deeply problematic. The best that could be said is that the DNC convention did Biden no harm in an environment where he is already overperforming base partisanship among likely voters. But Trump is also failing so profoundly as a president that it says something disturbing either about the electorate or the DNC’s messaging strategy that Team Biden could not capitalize on Trump’s disasters over the course of four days’s attention from 20 million viewers, to even shift the polling by a single percentage point. It was more forgivable when there was speculation that no convention bounces could be expected for either side. But Trump’s bounce disproves that theory.
The available evidence suggests that mobilizing a partisan base, appealing to core values, and making the strongest, most emotional possible case against an opponent to maximize negative partisanship is the best way to a run a national convention. Anyone whom Biden could reach with a cross-partisan outreach strategy had evidently already been reached. Meanwhile, there is clearly a section of the electorate that was either flirting with voting for Biden, thinking of skipping the election or even refusing to answer polls, who were inspired to come back into the fold as a result of the RNC convention.
That should be a lesson Democrats take to heart looking forward toward 2024 and beyond.