washingtonmonthly--2020-08-22--How Trump May Be Plotting to Stay Out of Jail

Donald Trump has a serious dilemma .
If Joe Biden loses in November , he can go home and settle in as a party elder stateman , as defeated nominees have often done .
But if Trump loses , he faces years of intensive investigations by Congress and , assuming he pardons himself , years of investigations by state prosecutors , likely criminal indictments , and possible conviction and imprisonment .
The investigations also could expose some of his children to legal peril .
And Trump assets—and those of the Trump Organization—will be vulnerable to government seizure if New York @ @ @ @ @ @ @ past actions were part of an organized enterprise engaged in criminal activity .
Trump is working hard to avoid this scenario at any cost .
His challenge is to find a strategy that both makes losing less likely and , if he does lose , provides some leverage to lessen the personal costs to him and his family .
His current campaign arguably meets those criteria : His winning strategy increasingly relies on efforts to stack the count in his favor by attacking and partly disabling the mail-in voting process .
His attacks @ @ @ @ @ @ @ also feed into his larger campaign message to his core followers that the election is rigged , and they should be prepared for Trump to reject the result if he loses .
If the strategy ends in victory , Trump ’ s problems are solved .
But if he loses by a healthy margin , he could still try to avoid years of investigations and prosecutions by employing what game theorists call the “ ultimatum game.
” In this scenario , Trump ’ s representatives would privately tell Biden ’ s team that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ publicly and send his followers into the streets , unless the president-elect gives him a get-out-of-jail-free card .
We don ’ t know if Biden would play that game .
He could well ignore any such proffered quid pro quo and call on Republicans to support a calm transition of power .
But the scenario is highly consistent with Trump ’ s current message and strategy .
Let ’ s start with what we know about the president ’ s core message .
We know that his website offers no new proposals for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , energy , agriculture , education , or even on how to beat the pandemic .
When the pandemic , and his mismanagement of it , drove down jobs and growth , his message has shifted to the claims that widespread mail-in voting is part of a rigged election , and the only way he can lose is through mail-in ballot fraud .
This new message has become as central to his 2020 campaign as anti-immigration was in 2016 .
Trump ’ s attacks on the electoral process this year started with the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , because widespread mail-in balloting based on the pandemic , as he put it , would be a “ catastrophic disaster ” leading to fraudulent results .
Perhaps he thought he could delay the election until a time when he could point to the pandemic receding .
Alas for that plan , Republican leaders from Mitch McConnell down rejected the trial balloon out-of-hand .
Even so , the controversy generated wide publicity for his claim that a fair election would be impossible with largescale mail-in voting .
To be clear , that claim @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Brennan Center for Justice reported recently , extensive research shows that mail-in ballot fraud is very rare ; and a National Academy of Sciences study found that universal mail-in voting has no discernible effect on each party ’ s share of the turnout or the election ’ s results .
But for Trump ’ s strategy , the salient fact is that Democrats are much more likely than Republicans to vote by mail , by a margin of 72 percent to 22 percent , according to a recent Monmouth University survey .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ attacks on mail-in voting is his public push to block funding for the U.S .
Postal Service and enact new policies that will delay deliveries of mail-in ballots to state election officials .
By normal political standards , this war on mail delivery is remarkable on several counts .
First , 91 percent of Americans view the USPS favorably for its prompt reliable delivery of their mail .
Second , his high-profile attacks have given Democrats a strong incentive to organize their voters to request and mail-in their ballots early .
Finally , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ installed postmaster general , Louis DeJoy , could have found discrete and hard-to-trace ways to weaken the USPS ’ s capacity to deliver tens of millions of mail-in ballots on time .
DeJoy may be taking such steps anyway .
He announced this week that he would suspend the policy changes until after the election .
Whether he really is or not , the headline-grabbing dispute has further publicized and reinforced the president ’ s core message that any election with high levels of mail-in balloting is rigged .
The third piece of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ about a rigged election .
: By his own statements , Trump may not accept the election result if he loses—and implicitly , neither should his supporters .
He made the same threat in 2016 , near the close of his third debate with Hillary Clinton .
But if Trump had lost in 2016 , whatever he said about it would have had little if any consequences .
The threat has different implications this time , because now he is the president .
For example , if loses narrowly , he could direct @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the results in a few states , based on the Justice Department ’ s findings of mail-in ballot fraud .
We do not know what would happen next .
Americans typically see a narrow loss as a loss , however , and while Trump ’ s messaging has prepared his more fervent supporters to protest such an outcome , that type of public pressure usually does not affect judges .
We also can not know what Trump will do if he loses badly .
Based on game theory , he does have one @ @ @ @ @ @ @ out of his defeat : After spending months preparing his supporters for the prospect that Democrats will steal the presidency , Trump ’ s representatives could tell Biden ’ s camp that unless the president-elect agrees to some concessions , the sitting president will publicly reject the results as a fraud and call on his followers to take mass action in the streets .
In Trump ’ s view , this could be his ultimate deal .
He agrees to accept the election results and retire peacefully , but only if Biden and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ investigations and forgo federal prosecutions of him and his family and associates—and call on state prosecutors and attorneys general to do the same .
We do not know how a President-elect Biden would respond .
If he is highly risk-adverse , he might agree with some conditions—for example , that Trump and his family withdraw from politics on a permanent basis .
But it is likely that the agreement would become public and produce a backlash damaging to Biden ’ s new presidency , which suggests that Biden would reject such a deal @ @ @ @ @ @ @ associated costs .
In the end , we do know that Donald Trump faces terrible consequences if he loses this election , and he is relying on an electoral strategy of excluding millions of voters on the message that the election itself is a fraud .
In the past , he has been adept at avoiding most personal costs when his projects collapse , as he did in the serial bankruptcies of his Atlantic City casino hotels .
Only real events will tell us if his strategy this time can possibly pull that @ @ @

Donald Trump has a serious dilemma. If Joe Biden loses in November, he can go home and settle in as a party elder stateman, as defeated nominees have often done. But if Trump loses, he faces years of intensive investigations by Congress and, assuming he pardons himself, years of investigations by state prosecutors, likely criminal indictments, and possible conviction and imprisonment. The investigations also could expose some of his children to legal peril. And Trump assets—and those of the Trump Organization—will be vulnerable to government seizure if New York state prosecutors and courts find that his past actions were part of an organized enterprise engaged in criminal activity.
Trump is working hard to avoid this scenario at any cost. His challenge is to find a strategy that both makes losing less likely and, if he does lose, provides some leverage to lessen the personal costs to him and his family. His current campaign arguably meets those criteria: His winning strategy increasingly relies on efforts to stack the count in his favor by attacking and partly disabling the mail-in voting process. His attacks on a safe and open voting process also feed into his larger campaign message to his core followers that the election is rigged, and they should be prepared for Trump to reject the result if he loses.
If the strategy ends in victory, Trump’s problems are solved. But if he loses by a healthy margin, he could still try to avoid years of investigations and prosecutions by employing what game theorists call the “ultimatum game.” In this scenario, Trump’s representatives would privately tell Biden’s team that the sitting president may reject the outcome publicly and send his followers into the streets, unless the president-elect gives him a get-out-of-jail-free card. We don’t know if Biden would play that game. He could well ignore any such proffered quid pro quo and call on Republicans to support a calm transition of power. But the scenario is highly consistent with Trump’s current message and strategy.
Let’s start with what we know about the president’s core message. We know that his website offers no new proposals for his second term on taxes, healthcare, energy, agriculture, education, or even on how to beat the pandemic. When the pandemic, and his mismanagement of it, drove down jobs and growth, his message has shifted to the claims that widespread mail-in voting is part of a rigged election, and the only way he can lose is through mail-in ballot fraud. This new message has become as central to his 2020 campaign as anti-immigration was in 2016.
Trump’s attacks on the electoral process this year started with the suggestion that the election should be delayed, because widespread mail-in balloting based on the pandemic, as he put it, would be a “catastrophic disaster” leading to fraudulent results. Perhaps he thought he could delay the election until a time when he could point to the pandemic receding. Alas for that plan, Republican leaders from Mitch McConnell down rejected the trial balloon out-of-hand. Even so, the controversy generated wide publicity for his claim that a fair election would be impossible with largescale mail-in voting.
To be clear, that claim has no basis in fact. As the Brennan Center for Justice reported recently, extensive research shows that mail-in ballot fraud is very rare; and a National Academy of Sciences study found that universal mail-in voting has no discernible effect on each party’s share of the turnout or the election’s results. But for Trump’s strategy, the salient fact is that Democrats are much more likely than Republicans to vote by mail, by a margin of 72 percent to 22 percent, according to a recent Monmouth University survey.
The current centerpiece of Trump’s attacks on mail-in voting is his public push to block funding for the U.S. Postal Service and enact new policies that will delay deliveries of mail-in ballots to state election officials.
By normal political standards, this war on mail delivery is remarkable on several counts. First, 91 percent of Americans view the USPS favorably for its prompt reliable delivery of their mail. Second, his high-profile attacks have given Democrats a strong incentive to organize their voters to request and mail-in their ballots early. Finally, instead of declaring war, his newly installed postmaster general, Louis DeJoy, could have found discrete and hard-to-trace ways to weaken the USPS’s capacity to deliver tens of millions of mail-in ballots on time.
DeJoy may be taking such steps anyway. He announced this week that he would suspend the policy changes until after the election. Whether he really is or not, the headline-grabbing dispute has further publicized and reinforced the president’s core message that any election with high levels of mail-in balloting is rigged.
The third piece of this messaging addresses what Trump may do about a rigged election.: By his own statements, Trump may not accept the election result if he loses—and implicitly, neither should his supporters. He made the same threat in 2016, near the close of his third debate with Hillary Clinton. But if Trump had lost in 2016, whatever he said about it would have had little if any consequences. The threat has different implications this time, because now he is the president.
For example, if loses narrowly, he could direct his attorney general to sue to overturn the results in a few states, based on the Justice Department’s findings of mail-in ballot fraud. We do not know what would happen next. Americans typically see a narrow loss as a loss, however, and while Trump’s messaging has prepared his more fervent supporters to protest such an outcome, that type of public pressure usually does not affect judges.
We also cannot know what Trump will do if he loses badly. Based on game theory, he does have one course left that might take the sting out of his defeat: After spending months preparing his supporters for the prospect that Democrats will steal the presidency, Trump’s representatives could tell Biden’s camp that unless the president-elect agrees to some concessions, the sitting president will publicly reject the results as a fraud and call on his followers to take mass action in the streets.
In Trump’s view, this could be his ultimate deal. He agrees to accept the election results and retire peacefully, but only if Biden and Democratic congressional leaders agree to shelve future investigations and forgo federal prosecutions of him and his family and associates—and call on state prosecutors and attorneys general to do the same.
We do not know how a President-elect Biden would respond. If he is highly risk-adverse, he might agree with some conditions—for example, that Trump and his family withdraw from politics on a permanent basis. But it is likely that the agreement would become public and produce a backlash damaging to Biden’s new presidency, which suggests that Biden would reject such a deal, on principle or based on the associated costs.
In the end, we do know that Donald Trump faces terrible consequences if he loses this election, and he is relying on an electoral strategy of excluding millions of voters on the message that the election itself is a fraud. In the past, he has been adept at avoiding most personal costs when his projects collapse, as he did in the serial bankruptcies of his Atlantic City casino hotels. Only real events will tell us if his strategy this time can possibly pull that off again.


washingtonmonthly--2020-08-24--Vladimir Putin Is on the Ballot in November

Vladimir Putin is on the ballot this November .
You won ’ t see his name or watch his ads .
But make no mistake , Putin has a lot riding on this election and he ’ s counting on your vote .
What will a vote for Putin mean ?
First , Putin is looking to reshape the world order in a way that benefits Moscow , builds his personal power and establishes him as the world ’ s toughest leader capable of outrageous cunning , manipulation and disruption .
A successful outcome—meaning President Trump is re-elected—means his Russia @ @ @ @ @ @ @ weight around globally .
He will assertively create unseen but ever-present fear and dependence in neighboring nations including Belarus , Ukraine , the Baltic states and Georgia .
Russia ’ s renewed and enhanced influence also will be felt in countries farther away and immediately affected by America ’ s acquiescence to Putin ’ s newfound power .
Countries such as Syria , Libya , Afghanistan , Venezuela , Nicaragua , and Cuba .
Putin ’ s victory would usher in a world that would be unimaginable to those Americans who endured the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 21st century Middle East conflicts fought for oil and influence .
This already was a watershed year for Russia ’ s President-for-Life Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin— “ Vova ” for short .
He consolidated his domestic power with a sneaky recent referendum that gave him both symbolic and vital constitutional changes .
On the symbolic front , he played up family values and nationalist sentiment with laws against same-sex marriage and a codified “ belief in God.
” On the substantive side , new constitutional reforms give primacy to Russian law over international norms @ @ @ @ @ @ @ changed to allow Putin the presidency through 2036 .
Constitutional reforms mean he no longer needs to practice new jiu-jitsu political moves .
In the past , Putin had to horse-trade his presidential role for the prime ministership .
No more .
He can now reside in gilded presidential palaces forever and a day .
Tragically , Putin has mobilized a military and militia around a neo-nationalism that satisfies a popular thirst for pride .
While his regime fails to deal with improving his people ’ s lot , it overcompensates for its @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the emotion-stirring libations of Russian exceptionalism and nostalgia for a deceptively reclaimable empire .
By drowning—or poisoning and defenestrating—opposition voices like Alexei Navalny , Putin deprives his citizens freedom of speech and choice .
Russians are left with little to show for their industrious and inventive nature , feeling impoverished despite their abundantly rich culture and overflowing natural resources .
What they are left with is Putin .
Secure in his position at home , Putin now shifts his roving eye around the world to spy where he can assert his parasitic power—which @ @ @ @ @ @ @ play into Putin ’ s hands .
American voters can decide how much of a free ride to give Moscow .
Putin already got away with interfering in the 2016 U.S. election , collaborating with the winning campaign as the Senate revealed this week .
Putin continues his interference , no longer relying on Wikileaks or Facebook to peddle and amplify divisively toxic narratives .
He ’ s hard at work .
If Putin wins again this cycle , prepare for renewed global adventurism .
The carte blanche he received these last few @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and stick it to Ukraine .
He bleeds American soldiers in Afghanistan .
While Congress tried to exact a toll for the illegal Crimean invasion and occupation , the war in Ukraine ’ s Donbass and for paying bounties to kill our troops , crickets is the only thing we hear from the executive , the perfect soundtrack for an ambitious dictator .
The 2020 election campaign will focus foreign-policy debates on which side will be tougher on China .
One candidate will try to pin the other as being soft on China @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the ballot .
China policy differences are a legitimate political target , and the policies of both sides should be viewed with discerningly cold , critical eyes .
Beijing seeks regional hegemony in and around the South China Sea and everywhere else in its neighborhood .
It has cracked down at home in Hong Kong and it threatens Taiwan .
Xi and China do have global ambitions .
Xi , however , is not on this year ’ s ballot in the United States .
There is a strong bipartisan American consensus on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on the same page .
They may not agree on how to deal with the threat—are tariffs effective ?
—but are clear-eyed about China ’ s intentions and capabilities .
Not so with Russia or Putin .
The two parties diverge dramatically .
Somehow , a party that was once the most vocal , moral and aggressively determined to counter Moscow has now embraced Putin and his posse .
What happened ?
Putin is on this year ’ s ballot , so think twice before marking mail-in ballots or donning masks to go @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cast counts in both Moscow and the world .

Vladimir Putin is on the ballot this November.
You won’t see his name or watch his ads. But make no mistake, Putin has a lot riding on this election and he’s counting on your vote.
What will a vote for Putin mean?
First, Putin is looking to reshape the world order in a way that benefits Moscow, builds his personal power and establishes him as the world’s toughest leader capable of outrageous cunning, manipulation and disruption.
A successful outcome—meaning President Trump is re-elected—means his Russia will be able to wantonly throw its weight around globally. He will assertively create unseen but ever-present fear and dependence in neighboring nations including Belarus, Ukraine, the Baltic states and Georgia. Russia’s renewed and enhanced influence also will be felt in countries farther away and immediately affected by America’s acquiescence to Putin’s newfound power. Countries such as Syria, Libya, Afghanistan, Venezuela, Nicaragua, and Cuba.
Putin’s victory would usher in a world that would be unimaginable to those Americans who endured the Cold War and continue to suffer the 21st century Middle East conflicts fought for oil and influence.
This already was a watershed year for Russia’s President-for-Life Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin—“Vova” for short. He consolidated his domestic power with a sneaky recent referendum that gave him both symbolic and vital constitutional changes.
On the symbolic front, he played up family values and nationalist sentiment with laws against same-sex marriage and a codified “belief in God.” On the substantive side, new constitutional reforms give primacy to Russian law over international norms. One more thing: Term limits changed to allow Putin the presidency through 2036.
Constitutional reforms mean he no longer needs to practice new jiu-jitsu political moves. In the past, Putin had to horse-trade his presidential role for the prime ministership. No more. He can now reside in gilded presidential palaces forever and a day.
Tragically, Putin has mobilized a military and militia around a neo-nationalism that satisfies a popular thirst for pride. While his regime fails to deal with improving his people’s lot, it overcompensates for its economic and material failings by freely pouring the emotion-stirring libations of Russian exceptionalism and nostalgia for a deceptively reclaimable empire.


washingtonmonthly--2020-08-24--How the GOP Became a Cult of Personality

As the Republican Convention kicks off on Monday , the GOP announced that they would not create a 2020 party platform .
Here are the relevant statements from that resolution : Whereas , the RNC , had the platform committee been able to convene in 2020 , would have undoubtedly unanimously agreed to reassert the party ’ s strong support for President Donald Trump and his administration… Whereas , the RNC enthusiastically supports President Trump and continues to reject the policy positions of the Obama-Biden administration , as well as those espoused by the Democratic National Committee today , therefore @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Republican Party has and will continue to enthusiastically support the president ’ s America-first agenda , Resolved , that the 2020 Republican National Convention will adjourn without adopting a new platform until the 2024 Republican National Convention .
What you have is a political party abdicating the traditional role of outlining a policy agenda in favor of simply endorsing the president .
There are those who would refer to that as a cult of personality—and they ’ d have a point .
The problem is that , until Sunday , the president hasn @ @ @ @ @ @ @ America-first agenda.
” To fix that , the Trump campaign released a three-page document purporting to be the president ’ s “ second term agenda.
” To put that in some perspective , Andrew Feinberg points out that Joe Biden ’ s campaign website has “ detailed plans and agendas for 46 separate issue areas.
” To give you some idea of just how vacuous Trump ’ s “ agenda ” is , take a look at what it says about health care .
These are things Trump has been promising to do @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s had four years to develop a plan to accomplish them and we ’ ve seen nothing .
That ’ s because they ’ re just slogans—not plans .
Simultaneous to these announcements comes a piece by Tim Alberta titled , “ The Grand Old Meltdown : What happens when a party gives up on ideas ?
” He set out to interview Republican consultants and politicians to answer a question that had been posed to him by a group of politically engaged students : “ What do Republicans believe ?
What does @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” Here is what he heard from the GOP messaging guru , Frank Luntz .
Alberta recognizes that this is all they ’ ve got : It can now safely be said , as his first term in the White House draws toward closure , that Donald Trump ’ s party is the very definition of a cult of personality .
It stands for no special ideal .
It possesses no organizing principle .
It represents no detailed vision for governing .
Filling the vacuum is a lazy , identity-based populism that draws @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to .
If it agitates the base , if it lights up a Fox News chyron , if it serves to alienate sturdy real Americans from delicate coastal elites , then it ’ s got a place in the Grand Old Party .
“ Owning the libs and pissing off the media , ” shrugs Brendan Buck , a longtime senior congressional aide and imperturbable party veteran if ever there was one .
“ That ’ s what we believe in now .
There ’ s really not much more to it.
” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ piece is that he allocates the blame for all of that to Donald Trump .
But there are those of us who have been pointing out that the GOP became the post-policy party years ago .
I first heard that description from Steve Benen , who has now written a whole book about it titled , The Impostors : How Republicans Quit Governing and Seized American Politics .
Here ’ s an excerpt : The current iteration of the GOP is indifferent to the substance of governing .
It is disdainful of expertise @ @ @ @ @ @ @ evidence and arithmetic .
It is tethered to few , if any , meaningful policy preferences .
It does not know , and does not care , about how competing proposals should be crafted , scrutinized , or implemented .
The modern Republican Party has become a post-policy party .
The truth is that the GOP has been drifting towards a post-policy position for decades .
As I ’ ve pointed out over and over again , that drift came to a head at the end of George W. Bush ’ s tenure @ @ @ @ @ @ @ agenda had been decimated by things like the Great Recession , the debacle of the federal government ’ s response to Katrina , and two endless wars in the Middle East .
Their choice at that point was not to rethink their agenda , but to engage in total obstruction of anything Democrats attempted to do .
They eschewed the idea of having an agenda in favor of simply being against the one put forward by the opposition .
In order to justify that approach , they dipped into the well of fear @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the presidency of Donald Trump and the GOP ’ s cult of personality .

As the Republican Convention kicks off on Monday, the GOP announced that they would not create a 2020 party platform. Here are the relevant statements from that resolution:
Whereas, the RNC, had the platform committee been able to convene in 2020, would have undoubtedly unanimously agreed to reassert the party’s strong support for President Donald Trump and his administration… Whereas, the RNC enthusiastically supports President Trump and continues to reject the policy positions of the Obama-Biden administration, as well as those espoused by the Democratic National Committee today, therefore, be it Resolved, that the Republican Party has and will continue to enthusiastically support the president’s America-first agenda, Resolved, that the 2020 Republican National Convention will adjourn without adopting a new platform until the 2024 Republican National Convention.
What you have is a political party abdicating the traditional role of outlining a policy agenda in favor of simply endorsing the president. There are those who would refer to that as a cult of personality—and they’d have a point.
The problem is that, until Sunday, the president hasn’t bothered to articulate his “America-first agenda.” To fix that, the Trump campaign released a three-page document purporting to be the president’s “second term agenda.” To put that in some perspective, Andrew Feinberg points out that Joe Biden’s campaign website has “detailed plans and agendas for 46 separate issue areas.” To give you some idea of just how vacuous Trump’s “agenda” is, take a look at what it says about health care.
* Cut prescription drug prices,
* Put patients and doctors back in charge of our health care system,
* Lower health care insurance premiums,
* End surprise billing,
* Cover all pre-existing conditions,
* Protect Social Security and Medicare,
* Protect our veterans and provide world-class health care and services.
These are things Trump has been promising to do since the 2016 election. He’s had four years to develop a plan to accomplish them and we’ve seen nothing. That’s because they’re just slogans—not plans.
Simultaneous to these announcements comes a piece by Tim Alberta titled, “The Grand Old Meltdown: What happens when a party gives up on ideas?” He set out to interview Republican consultants and politicians to answer a question that had been posed to him by a group of politically engaged students: “What do Republicans believe? What does it mean to be a Republican?” Here is what he heard from the GOP messaging guru, Frank Luntz.
“You know I don’t have a history of dodging questions. But I don’t know how to answer that. There is no consistent philosophy,” Luntz responded. “You can’t say it’s about making America great again at a time of Covid and economic distress and social unrest. It’s just not credible.” Luntz thought for a moment. “I think it’s about promoting—” he stopped suddenly. “But I can’t, I don’t—” he took a pause. “That’s the best I can do.”
Alberta recognizes that this is all they’ve got:
It can now safely be said, as his first term in the White House draws toward closure, that Donald Trump’s party is the very definition of a cult of personality. It stands for no special ideal. It possesses no organizing principle. It represents no detailed vision for governing. Filling the vacuum is a lazy, identity-based populism that draws from that lowest common denominator Sanford alluded to. If it agitates the base, if it lights up a Fox News chyron, if it serves to alienate sturdy real Americans from delicate coastal elites, then it’s got a place in the Grand Old Party. “Owning the libs and pissing off the media,” shrugs Brendan Buck, a longtime senior congressional aide and imperturbable party veteran if ever there was one. “That’s what we believe in now. There’s really not much more to it.”
The one problem with Alberta’s piece is that he allocates the blame for all of that to Donald Trump. But there are those of us who have been pointing out that the GOP became the post-policy party years ago. I first heard that description from Steve Benen, who has now written a whole book about it titled, The Impostors: How Republicans Quit Governing and Seized American Politics. Here’s an excerpt:
The current iteration of the GOP is indifferent to the substance of governing. It is disdainful of expertise and analysis. It is hostile toward evidence and arithmetic. It is tethered to few, if any, meaningful policy preferences. It does not know, and does not care, about how competing proposals should be crafted, scrutinized, or implemented. The modern Republican Party has become a post-policy party.
The truth is that the GOP has been drifting towards a post-policy position for decades. As I’ve pointed out over and over again, that drift came to a head at the end of George W. Bush’s tenure. Both their domestic and foreign policy agenda had been decimated by things like the Great Recession, the debacle of the federal government’s response to Katrina, and two endless wars in the Middle East. Their choice at that point was not to rethink their agenda, but to engage in total obstruction of anything Democrats attempted to do. They eschewed the idea of having an agenda in favor of simply being against the one put forward by the opposition. In order to justify that approach, they dipped into the well of fear and racism—which is precisely what led to the presidency of Donald Trump and the GOP’s cult of personality.


washingtonmonthly--2020-08-25--A Common Sense Caucus Emerges to Elect Joe Biden

On the opening day of the Republican Convention , former Senator Jeff Flake not only endorsed Joe Biden , he brought 26 former members of congress with him to launch the group “ Republicans for Biden.
” Here ’ s what Flake wrote in support of that decision .
I have never before voted for a Democrat for president .
But I ’ ve been asked many times over the past four years if I , as a conservative , could vote for a Democrat for President .
“ Sure , ” has been my ready answer , “ if @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Well , the Democratic Party just nominated a Joe Biden-kinda-Democrat , whom I am confident will approach his constitutional role with the reverence and dignity it deserves… I have known Vice President Biden for two decades now .
I served with him in Congress for much of that time .
He is a good and decent man .
I haven ’ t always agreed with him , and there will be many policies on which we will disagree in the future , and that ’ s okay .
The steadiness of leadership @ @ @ @ @ @ @ our democracy — those things far supersede any policy issues on which we might disagree .
Just last week yet another group formed that is calling itself “ Former Republican National Security Officials for Biden.
” Here ’ s how they describe themselves : We are former national security officials who served during the administrations of Presidents Ronald Reagan , George H.W .
Bush , George W. Bush , and/or Donald Trump , or as Republican Members of Congress .
We are profoundly concerned about the course of our nation under the leadership @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and his rhetoric , Trump has demonstrated that he lacks the character and competence to lead this nation and has engaged in corrupt behavior that renders him unfit to serve as President… While some of us hold policy positions that differ from those of Joe Biden and his party , the time to debate those policy differences will come later .
For now , it is imperative that we stop Trump ’ s assault on our nation ’ s values and institutions and reinstate the moral foundations of our democracy .
To that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it is in the best interest of our nation that Vice President Joe Biden be elected as the next President of the United States , and we will vote for him .
Those two groups join the ranks of several others , including the Lincoln Project , Republican Voters Against Trump , and 43 Alumni for Biden .
Individual Republicans who have endorsed Biden include John Kasich , Colin Powell , Christie Todd Whitman , Meg Whitman , and Chuck Hagel .
In addition , there are those who have refused to endorse @ @ @ @ @ @ @ silent on who they will ultimately vote for , including George W. Bush , Mitt Romney , Paul Ryan , and John Boehner .
You might notice that all of the individuals speaking for themselves or joining these groups have one thing in common : they do not currently serve in congress or in the Trump administration .
But as this video demonstrates , prior to the 2016 election , they all knew—which means they all know now .
I was reminded of the time back in 2013 when then-President Obama started talking @ @ @ @ @ @ @ caucus .
I do know that there are Republicans in Congress who privately , at least , say that they would rather close tax loopholes than let these cuts go through .
I know that there are Democrats who ’ d rather do smart entitlement reform than let these cuts go through .
So there is a caucus of common sense up on Capitol Hill .
It ’ s just — it ’ s a silent group right now , and we want to make sure that their voices start getting heard .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ coming weeks I ’ m going to keep on reaching out to them , both individually and as groups of senators or members of the House , and say to them , let ’ s fix this — not just for a month or two , but for years to come .
Major media outlets completely misunderstood what was happening and referred to Obama ’ s outreach as a “ charm offensive.
” But what was actually going on was that , as they voted to obstruct everything he tried to do , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s ear behind closed doors that they agreed with him .
But ultimately , party loyalty took priority over their views about sound policy , which is exactly what is happening today with their support for Trump .
At least there is a growing group of former members of congress and prior administration officials who recognize that the current president poses a unique threat to our country .
They are standing up and speaking out as a common sense caucus to support the election of Joe Biden .

On the opening day of the Republican Convention, former Senator Jeff Flake not only endorsed Joe Biden, he brought 26 former members of congress with him to launch the group “Republicans for Biden.” Here’s what Flake wrote in support of that decision.
I have never before voted for a Democrat for president. But I’ve been asked many times over the past four years if I, as a conservative, could vote for a Democrat for President. “Sure,” has been my ready answer, “if he or she were a Joe Biden-kinda-Democrat. Well, the Democratic Party just nominated a Joe Biden-kinda-Democrat, whom I am confident will approach his constitutional role with the reverence and dignity it deserves… I have known Vice President Biden for two decades now. I served with him in Congress for much of that time. He is a good and decent man. I haven’t always agreed with him, and there will be many policies on which we will disagree in the future, and that’s okay. The steadiness of leadership, and the health and survival of our democracy — those things far supersede any policy issues on which we might disagree.
Just last week yet another group formed that is calling itself “Former Republican National Security Officials for Biden.” Here’s how they describe themselves:
We are former national security officials who served during the administrations of Presidents Ronald Reagan, George H.W. Bush, George W. Bush, and/or Donald Trump, or as Republican Members of Congress. We are profoundly concerned about the course of our nation under the leadership of Donald Trump. Through his actions and his rhetoric, Trump has demonstrated that he lacks the character and competence to lead this nation and has engaged in corrupt behavior that renders him unfit to serve as President… While some of us hold policy positions that differ from those of Joe Biden and his party, the time to debate those policy differences will come later. For now, it is imperative that we stop Trump’s assault on our nation’s values and institutions and reinstate the moral foundations of our democracy. To that end, we are firmly convinced that it is in the best interest of our nation that Vice President Joe Biden be elected as the next President of the United States, and we will vote for him.
Those two groups join the ranks of several others, including the Lincoln Project, Republican Voters Against Trump, and 43 Alumni for Biden. Individual Republicans who have endorsed Biden include John Kasich, Colin Powell, Christie Todd Whitman, Meg Whitman, and Chuck Hagel. In addition, there are those who have refused to endorse Trump, but have decided to remain silent on who they will ultimately vote for, including George W. Bush, Mitt Romney, Paul Ryan, and John Boehner.
You might notice that all of the individuals speaking for themselves or joining these groups have one thing in common: they do not currently serve in congress or in the Trump administration. But as this video demonstrates, prior to the 2016 election, they all knew—which means they all know now.
I was reminded of the time back in 2013 when then-President Obama started talking about the possibility of a common sense caucus.
I do know that there are Republicans in Congress who privately, at least, say that they would rather close tax loopholes than let these cuts go through. I know that there are Democrats who’d rather do smart entitlement reform than let these cuts go through. So there is a caucus of common sense up on Capitol Hill. It’s just — it’s a silent group right now, and we want to make sure that their voices start getting heard. In the coming days and in the coming weeks I’m going to keep on reaching out to them, both individually and as groups of senators or members of the House, and say to them, let’s fix this — not just for a month or two, but for years to come.
Major media outlets completely misunderstood what was happening and referred to Obama’s outreach as a “charm offensive.” But what was actually going on was that, as they voted to obstruct everything he tried to do, many Republicans would whisper in Obama’s ear behind closed doors that they agreed with him. But ultimately, party loyalty took priority over their views about sound policy, which is exactly what is happening today with their support for Trump.
At least there is a growing group of former members of congress and prior administration officials who recognize that the current president poses a unique threat to our country. They are standing up and speaking out as a common sense caucus to support the election of Joe Biden.


washingtonmonthly--2020-08-25--How Renters Can Earn Equity

How Renters Can Earn Equity

When COVID-19 hit and Louise Williamston worried she might lose her job , she took comfort in the fact she had a unique safety net : equity credits accrued over the past five years through her apartment lease .
It ’ s a unique residential model in her neighborhood of Avondale , Cincinnati , in which Williamston rents but also participates in monthly tenant meetings and helps maintain the property she lives in .
In exchange , she ’ s guaranteed permanently affordable rent as well as financial credits she can exchange for cash when the lease is up .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ she says of the agreement .
“ I recommend the model because it ’ s just simple.
” It does sound simple enough : Residents fulfill commitments in their lease agreement , like paying rent on time and helping to maintain the property , and in doing so , earn financial credits they can exchange for cash after five years .
But the model , known as rental equity or dividend housing , has been slow to get off the ground and scale , despite interest from other cities .
In spite of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in Cincinnati .
“ Owning doesn ’ t work for everybody and renting doesn ’ t work for everybody , ” says Margery Spinney , who pioneered the dividend housing model with Carol Smith under the organization Renting Partnerships .
“ This is a third way .
But we ’ re sort of running a business with the control [ of the buildings ] upside down .
Not everyone sees the value.
” The prototype for dividend housing was renter equity , which Spinney created in 2000 as executive director of the Cornerstone-Homesource @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Renter Equity .
There she partnered with Smith , a property manager , to recruit residents for a participatory management system with equity credits in affordable housing , then prove that financial credits for households could be sustained without subsidies .
The pilot proved the model worked : Between 2002 and 2012 , 24 participating households accumulated over $ 140,000 in equity credits even though their income averaged about $ 20,000 per year .
There was clear community benefit .
A 2013 report from the Ohio Housing Finance Agency examining the impact of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ community atmosphere ” as the program ’ s highest appeal .
The evaluation also confirmed “ costs were comparable to those of similar properties that did not offer renter equity credits.
” But Spinney faced disagreements within Cornerstone Renter Equity on how to expand the program .
“ The issue was really about how much control residents had , ” she says .
So she and Smith split off and started Renting Partnerships in 2013 .
They re-launched the program—under the name dividend housing—by leasing a duplex in Avondale and subleasing it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Ferrell .
After five years , both are now vested with financial credits worth about $ 4,000 each .
Spinney ’ s dividend housing model has continued as rental equity changed or died out elsewhere .
Cornerstone Renter Equity ultimately transitioned out of property development and ownership , according to executive director Alisa Berry .
Through a 2019 pilot they brought clients into a “ renter equity club ” to work with a family coach and earn equity through paying rent on time , attending community meetings , contributing to their community and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ up to $ 1,600 a year and can access the equity after three years .
This year , the organization expanded family coaching to 109 community members .
“ It ’ s not tied to housing anymore , ” Berry explains .
A renter equity pilot in Cleveland—which Next City covered in 2015—is no longer active , according to the organization that ran it .
Spinney acknowledges challenges that have kept the model from getting off the ground .
While dividend housing borrows from cooperative housing , co-housing and land trusts , it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ None of those models address the possibility of a third way , ” she says .
“ In a land trust , there ’ s still ownership in a traditional sense for the residents … a co-op , again , you have to buy in and you can sell your unit on the market.
” Dividend housing creates pathways for residents to build equity without buying and selling property .
It also flips the traditional property management model by prioritizing resident input , with the understanding that residents who fulfill their lease commitments @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and attend monthly meetings are contributing to the financial success of their housing and quality of the living environment .
The type of resident who will choose dividend housing and the building have to be specific , Spinney and Smith found .
The model can ’ t serve extremely low-income residents without government subsidies .
And the long term commitment required from tenants won ’ t be a fit for someone temporarily renting on the way to buying a home .
The pair focused outreach to working-class Cincinnati residents with limited financial assets @ @ @ @ @ @ @ or not interested in ownership .
Rent was determined by the median income of Black households in Cincinnati : at roughly $ 35,000 a year , Spinney and Smith settled on rents between $ 600 and $ 800 a month set in place over a five-year lease .
Renting Partnerships also focused on a specific building type : small multifamily properties , like two-family homes , commonly bought by individual investors and rehabilitated , making them no longer affordable .
“ Those properties are gentrified because investors have to use the only financing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , ” Spinney explains .
“ We ’ re saying , let ’ s be that investor , but because we are a nonprofit we can keep the rents affordable.
” To do so , Renting Partnerships developed unique ownership and financing structures .
They ’ re preparing to buy the duplex property in Avondale as well as a vacant home next door they will rehabilitate .
They ’ re doing so with $ 300,000 in loans from the city of Cincinnati and the Cincinnati Development Fund , as well as a social @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 33,000 .
Renting Partnerships will own both properties as a land trust , which means they can offer residents longterm leases .
Equity credits accrue monthly up to $ 10,000 in ten years , depending on each household ’ s level of participation .
The agreement can be renewed after that .
After five years of residency , residents can pull out all or part of their financial credits , leave the money there , or invest the money into Renting Partnership ’ s properties .
Whichever choice they make , their credits @ @ @ @ @ @ @ first five years paying rent on time , attending meetings , keeping up the front yard and shoveling snow—has signed a 25-year lease and will keep the equity in place .
“ The money is there—if you have some sort of emergency , it is available to take care of that , ” she says .
For the past several months Williamston attended Zoom meetings with the future tenants of the building next door .
“ We ’ re there for any questions and just for encouragement too , ” she says .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ future tenants on how the apartments should be renovated and what building upkeep will look like .
Spinney still believes the model can scale .
Renting Partnerships participated in the city ’ s Avondale Quality of Life Movement plan , approved by the City Council this January .
One action step to “ revitalize Avondale with a diverse quality housing stock ” is to create and support a renter equity program in partnership with the organization .
She ’ s also a partner in submitting an RFP to the Hope Village Revitalization in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ models as one element of its strategy .
But to expand , there needs to be more investors on board behind the vision .
“ It ’ s the last piece , ” Spinney says .
“ But we ’ re at a point where we can guarantee a return to investors because we ’ ve demonstrated everything already.
” “ It ’ s taken so long to get where we are , ” she adds .
“ My hope is that there is an opportunity for us to demonstrate , again , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Cincinnati but elsewhere , and to do it at a larger scale.
” This story originally appeared in Next City .
It is part of the SoJo Exchange of COVID-19 stories from the Solutions Journalism Network , a nonprofit organization dedicated to rigorous reporting about responses to social problems .

When COVID-19 hit and Louise Williamston worried she might lose her job, she took comfort in the fact she had a unique safety net: equity credits accrued over the past five years through her apartment lease. It’s a unique residential model in her neighborhood of Avondale, Cincinnati, in which Williamston rents but also participates in monthly tenant meetings and helps maintain the property she lives in. In exchange, she’s guaranteed permanently affordable rent as well as financial credits she can exchange for cash when the lease is up.
“It decreases the worries,” she says of the agreement. “I recommend the model because it’s just simple.”
It does sound simple enough: Residents fulfill commitments in their lease agreement, like paying rent on time and helping to maintain the property, and in doing so, earn financial credits they can exchange for cash after five years. But the model, known as rental equity or dividend housing, has been slow to get off the ground and scale, despite interest from other cities. In spite of challenges, it continues to forge ahead in Cincinnati.
“Owning doesn’t work for everybody and renting doesn’t work for everybody,” says Margery Spinney, who pioneered the dividend housing model with Carol Smith under the organization Renting Partnerships. “This is a third way. But we’re sort of running a business with the control [of the buildings] upside down. Not everyone sees the value.”
The prototype for dividend housing was renter equity, which Spinney created in 2000 as executive director of the Cornerstone-Homesource Community Loan Fund, now called Cornerstone Renter Equity. There she partnered with Smith, a property manager, to recruit residents for a participatory management system with equity credits in affordable housing, then prove that financial credits for households could be sustained without subsidies.
The pilot proved the model worked: Between 2002 and 2012, 24 participating households accumulated over $140,000 in equity credits even though their income averaged about $20,000 per year. There was clear community benefit. A 2013 report from the Ohio Housing Finance Agency examining the impact of renter equity in Cincinnati found tenants rated “community atmosphere” as the program’s highest appeal. The evaluation also confirmed “costs were comparable to those of similar properties that did not offer renter equity credits.”
But Spinney faced disagreements within Cornerstone Renter Equity on how to expand the program. “The issue was really about how much control residents had,” she says. So she and Smith split off and started Renting Partnerships in 2013. They re-launched the program—under the name dividend housing—by leasing a duplex in Avondale and subleasing it to two residents, Williamston and Rosetta Ferrell. After five years, both are now vested with financial credits worth about $4,000 each.
Spinney’s dividend housing model has continued as rental equity changed or died out elsewhere. Cornerstone Renter Equity ultimately transitioned out of property development and ownership, according to executive director Alisa Berry. Through a 2019 pilot they brought clients into a “renter equity club” to work with a family coach and earn equity through paying rent on time, attending community meetings, contributing to their community and personal investments like education. Participants earn up to $1,600 a year and can access the equity after three years. This year, the organization expanded family coaching to 109 community members. “It’s not tied to housing anymore,” Berry explains.
A renter equity pilot in Cleveland—which Next City covered in 2015—is no longer active, according to the organization that ran it.
Spinney acknowledges challenges that have kept the model from getting off the ground. While dividend housing borrows from cooperative housing, co-housing and land trusts, it’s none of those. “None of those models address the possibility of a third way,” she says. “In a land trust, there’s still ownership in a traditional sense for the residents … a co-op, again, you have to buy in and you can sell your unit on the market.”
Dividend housing creates pathways for residents to build equity without buying and selling property. It also flips the traditional property management model by prioritizing resident input, with the understanding that residents who fulfill their lease commitments, help take care of the property and attend monthly meetings are contributing to the financial success of their housing and quality of the living environment.
The type of resident who will choose dividend housing and the building have to be specific, Spinney and Smith found. The model can’t serve extremely low-income residents without government subsidies. And the long term commitment required from tenants won’t be a fit for someone temporarily renting on the way to buying a home.
The pair focused outreach to working-class Cincinnati residents with limited financial assets, either left out of homeownership opportunities or not interested in ownership. Rent was determined by the median income of Black households in Cincinnati: at roughly $35,000 a year, Spinney and Smith settled on rents between $600 and $800 a month set in place over a five-year lease.
Renting Partnerships also focused on a specific building type: small multifamily properties, like two-family homes, commonly bought by individual investors and rehabilitated, making them no longer affordable. “Those properties are gentrified because investors have to use the only financing available, which makes the rents market,” Spinney explains. “We’re saying, let’s be that investor, but because we are a nonprofit we can keep the rents affordable.”
To do so, Renting Partnerships developed unique ownership and financing structures. They’re preparing to buy the duplex property in Avondale as well as a vacant home next door they will rehabilitate. They’re doing so with $300,000 in loans from the city of Cincinnati and the Cincinnati Development Fund, as well as a social investment fund that’s raised $33,000.
Renting Partnerships will own both properties as a land trust, which means they can offer residents longterm leases. Equity credits accrue monthly up to $10,000 in ten years, depending on each household’s level of participation. The agreement can be renewed after that.
After five years of residency, residents can pull out all or part of their financial credits, leave the money there, or invest the money into Renting Partnership’s properties. Whichever choice they make, their credits continue to grow. Williamston—who spent the first five years paying rent on time, attending meetings, keeping up the front yard and shoveling snow—has signed a 25-year lease and will keep the equity in place.
“The money is there—if you have some sort of emergency, it is available to take care of that,” she says.
For the past several months Williamston attended Zoom meetings with the future tenants of the building next door. “We’re there for any questions and just for encouragement too,” she says. Renting Partnerships is working closely with the future tenants on how the apartments should be renovated and what building upkeep will look like.
Spinney still believes the model can scale. Renting Partnerships participated in the city’s Avondale Quality of Life Movement plan, approved by the City Council this January. One action step to “revitalize Avondale with a diverse quality housing stock” is to create and support a renter equity program in partnership with the organization. She’s also a partner in submitting an RFP to the Hope Village Revitalization in Detroit, which is exploring renter equity models as one element of its strategy.
But to expand, there needs to be more investors on board behind the vision. “It’s the last piece,” Spinney says. “But we’re at a point where we can guarantee a return to investors because we’ve demonstrated everything already.”
“It’s taken so long to get where we are,” she adds. “My hope is that there is an opportunity for us to demonstrate, again, that this will work not just in Cincinnati but elsewhere, and to do it at a larger scale.”
This story originally appeared in Next City. It is part of the SoJo Exchange of COVID-19 stories from the Solutions Journalism Network, a nonprofit organization dedicated to rigorous reporting about responses to social problems.


washingtonmonthly--2020-08-27--What Will it Take to End the Police Shootings?

On Wednesday , professional sports came to a complete halt .
The National Basketball Association , Major League Baseball , Women ’ s National Basketball Association , and Major League Soccer all saw major boycotts over the shooting of Jacob Blake , an African-American man from Kenosha , Wisc .
who was shot in the back seven times by a white member of the small city ’ s police force .
The boycott avalanche started when the Milwaukee Bucks , whose home is about 30 miles from where Blake was shot , decided to boycott their playoff game with the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Despite attempts to paint professional athletes as privileged and ungrateful , it is important to keep in mind that neither their money nor status protects them from abuse by law enforcement .
Sterling Brown , a member of the Bucks and the son of a police officer , is a prime example .
Two years ago , Milwaukee police wrestled him to the ground , tased him , and hauled him off to jail over what they claimed was a parking violation .
By Wednesday night , play had not only been @ @ @ @ @ @ @ had been joined by most professional sport leagues .
Two-time grand slam winner Naomi Osaka also pulled out of a tennis tournament .
The WNBA ’ s Washington Mystics staged a powerful statement as part of their protest .
All of this took place on the fourth anniversary of the first time Colin Kaepernick took a knee during the national anthem to protest police shootings of unarmed Black people .
You might recall that both the San Francisco 49ers Quarterback and the athletes who joined him became political fodder for Trump and his @ @ @ @ @ @ @ happens now ?
No one knows .
But William Rhoden summed the situation up well .
Meanwhile , now would be a good time for the country to actually listen to what these folks are saying .
Los Angeles Clippers coach Doc Rivers obviously spoke from the heart .
Just as these coaches and athletes stopped playing , Trevor Noah dropped the comedy and got angry .
That was similar to what Letetra Widman , Jacob Blake ’ s sister , said about how she ’ s feeling these days .
Black people @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not , are telling us that the killing by police officers has to stop .
With protests in the streets and a halt to most professional sports , what is it going to take to make that happen ?

On Wednesday, professional sports came to a complete halt. The National Basketball Association, Major League Baseball, Women’s National Basketball Association, and Major League Soccer all saw major boycotts over the shooting of Jacob Blake, an African-American man from Kenosha, Wisc. who was shot in the back seven times by a white member of the small city’s police force.
The boycott avalanche started when the Milwaukee Bucks, whose home is about 30 miles from where Blake was shot, decided to boycott their playoff game with the Orlando Magic. Here is their statement.
Despite attempts to paint professional athletes as privileged and ungrateful, it is important to keep in mind that neither their money nor status protects them from abuse by law enforcement. Sterling Brown, a member of the Bucks and the son of a police officer, is a prime example. Two years ago, Milwaukee police wrestled him to the ground, tased him, and hauled him off to jail over what they claimed was a parking violation.
By Wednesday night, play had not only been suspended for the NBA, the boycott had been joined by most professional sport leagues. Two-time grand slam winner Naomi Osaka also pulled out of a tennis tournament. The WNBA’s Washington Mystics staged a powerful statement as part of their protest.
All of this took place on the fourth anniversary of the first time Colin Kaepernick took a knee during the national anthem to protest police shootings of unarmed Black people. You might recall that both the San Francisco 49ers Quarterback and the athletes who joined him became political fodder for Trump and his enablers—and the shootings continued.
So what happens now? No one knows. But William Rhoden summed the situation up well.
What do you say when words are not enough, when gestures are no longer sufficient? What happens when your actions are no longer seen, your words fall on deaf ears and all that is left is unsatisfied justice? Don’t play.
Meanwhile, now would be a good time for the country to actually listen to what these folks are saying. Los Angeles Clippers coach Doc Rivers obviously spoke from the heart.
Just as these coaches and athletes stopped playing, Trevor Noah dropped the comedy and got angry.
That was similar to what Letetra Widman, Jacob Blake’s sister, said about how she’s feeling these days.
Black people, whether they’re athletes or not, are telling us that the killing by police officers has to stop. With protests in the streets and a halt to most professional sports, what is it going to take to make that happen?


washingtonmonthly--2020-08-27--Arizona Is on the Verge of Turning Fully Blue

Arizona is not only the birthplace of Goldwater libertarianism , it ’ s a giant retirement home for relatively well-to-do white transplants .
The large Latinx population has created a dynamic where , to assure a monopoly on power , whites have tended to vote as a group .
It seldom elects Democrats to statewide office and has only voted for a Democrat for president once since 1948 .
Yet , it ’ s still trending blue .
As Igor Derysh explains at Salon , the Democrats have been dreaming about carrying Arizona in a presidential race since 2004 , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of Charlie Brown ’ s efforts to kick a football .
This could be the year that the Dems carry Arizona and its many down-ballot offices .
FiveThirtyEight ’ s average of polls currently has Joe Biden ahead by 3.7 percentage points .
It ’ s not a big lead , but it has been persistent .
The polls of the U.S. Senate race between incumbent Republican Martha McSally and Democratic challenger Mark Kelly give the challenger a substantial lead .
The most recently released survey , conducted by Redfield & Wilton Strategies @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Besides federal races , Republicans risk losing both chambers of their state legislature .
Democrats are “ very confident ” of their chances to flip the state legislature , Felecia Rotellini , the chairwoman of the Arizona Democratic Party , told Salon .
“ Both chambers are on the precipice of turning blue for the first time in 50 years , ” she said .
“ We need three seats in the Senate and two in the House to gain control .
We are fighting for each and every seat and the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” Republican Governor Doug Ducey ’ s term doesn ’ t end until 2022 and he ’ ll be ineligible to reelection so he ’ s insulated from the wrath the public ’ s wrath over his handling of the COVID-19 crisis .
In July , a survey from OH Predictive Insights showed Ducey with a 35 percent approval rating , down 22 points from June when coronavirus cases in Arizona began to spike .
Trump will likely run stronger than McSally , owing to more firm support from the Republican base , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ news for the other Republicans .
The party ’ s brand is severely tarnished and it ’ s more likely to drag Trump down than he is to lift them up .
I can ’ t say that this makes a tremendous amount of intuitive sense , but that ’ s what the numbers are telling us .
Arizona Republicans should be concerned about life after Trump whether he ’ s defeated in less than 70 days or not .
Without his galvanizing effect on the conservative electorate , they may discover that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fully blue .
After November , Democrats may hold two U.S. Senate seats and the state legislature .
They may snap up the governorship in 2022 .
Arizona could be the next Virginia , and that would be a remarkable shift for the land of Goldwater .

Arizona is not only the birthplace of Goldwater libertarianism, it’s a giant retirement home for relatively well-to-do white transplants. The large Latinx population has created a dynamic where, to assure a monopoly on power, whites have tended to vote as a group. It seldom elects Democrats to statewide office and has only voted for a Democrat for president once since 1948. Yet, it’s still trending blue.
As Igor Derysh explains at Salon, the Democrats have been dreaming about carrying Arizona in a presidential race since 2004, but so far it has been reminiscent of Charlie Brown’s efforts to kick a football. This could be the year that the Dems carry Arizona and its many down-ballot offices.
FiveThirtyEight’s average of polls currently has Joe Biden ahead by 3.7 percentage points. It’s not a big lead, but it has been persistent. The polls of the U.S. Senate race between incumbent Republican Martha McSally and Democratic challenger Mark Kelly give the challenger a substantial lead. The most recently released survey, conducted by Redfield & Wilton Strategies, has him up by 19 points.
Besides federal races, Republicans risk losing both chambers of their state legislature.
Democrats are “very confident” of their chances to flip the state legislature, Felecia Rotellini, the chairwoman of the Arizona Democratic Party, told Salon. “Both chambers are on the precipice of turning blue for the first time in 50 years,” she said. “We need three seats in the Senate and two in the House to gain control. We are fighting for each and every seat and the path to achieving these majorities is clear.”
Republican Governor Doug Ducey’s term doesn’t end until 2022 and he’ll be ineligible to reelection so he’s insulated from the public’s wrath over his handling of the COVID-19 crisis. In July, a survey from OH Predictive Insights showed Ducey with a 35 percent approval rating, down 22 points from June when coronavirus cases in Arizona began to spike.
Trump will likely run stronger than McSally, owing to more firm support from the Republican base, but that’s not particularly good news for the other Republicans. The party’s brand is severely tarnished and it’s more likely to drag Trump down than he is to lift them up. I can’t say that this makes a tremendous amount of intuitive sense, but that’s what the numbers are telling us.
Arizona Republicans should be concerned about life after Trump whether he’s defeated in less than 70 days or not. Without his galvanizing effect on the conservative electorate, they may discover that Arizona isn’t just purple but fully blue. After November, Democrats may hold two U.S. Senate seats and the state legislature. They may snap up the governorship in 2022. Arizona could be the next Virginia, and that would be a remarkable shift for the land of Goldwater.


washingtonmonthly--2020-08-27--Trumpism Is the Real Cancel Culture

Trumpism Is the Real Cancel Culture

Free speech is under threat in the United States .
That ’ s what numerous speakers have told the Republican convention , which wraps up Thursday night .
They ’ re right .
And the biggest threat comes from the man they ’ re re-nominating for president , Donald J. Trump .
Trump has called major media outlets “ enemies of the people , ” warning that he might withhold their broadcast licenses .
He encouraged supporters at one of his rallies to assault protesters , promising to pay any legal bills that resulted .
And he ordered the removal @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the White House , all so he could pose for a photo-op while holding a Bible .
You haven ’ t heard anything about that at the GOP convention , of course , where every attack is blamed on the other side .
And that ’ s the biggest problem for free speech in our country right now .
We all want the right to speak , but we ’ re perfectly happy to deny it to somebody else .
And that isn ’ t free speech at all .
So numerous presenters @ @ @ @ @ @ @ culture , ” complaining that many Americans are prevented or discouraged from speaking their minds .
At universities , especially , “ students find themselves suppressing their beliefs to fit into the acceptable groupthink , ” as Tiffany Trump , the president ’ s daughter , declared on Tuesday night .
That ’ s true .
According to a wide swath of research , growing numbers of Americans bite their tongues for fear of being canceled on social media .
Disagreement is fine ; indeed , it ’ s the lifeblood of democracy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ our opponents , rejecting not just their ideas but their humanity , we make honest discussion impossible .
But guess who is the Canceler-in-Chief ?
Donald Trump , of course .
To Trump , political challengers aren ’ t simply people who disagree with him ; they ’ re “ losers , ” “ dummies , ” “ morons , ” and more .
He has called Mexicans rapists , women pigs , and African countries shitholes .
Almost every day brings another vile presidential tweet , denigrating someone ’ s intellect , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ speaker after speaker at the GOP convention condemned opponents for cancelling them .
“ Joe Biden and the radical left are now coming for our freedom of speech and want to bully us into submission , ” Donald Trump , Jr. , charged .
Seriously ?
What is his father , if not the quintessential bully ?
And how can Republicans champion free speech , but ignore the president ’ s own attacks on the same ?
Alas , my fellow liberals have too often demonstrated a similar inconsistency .
When Trump or @ @ @ @ @ @ @ up a hue and cry .
But when the threat comes from our own side , we keep quiet or even cheer it along .
So after prominent University of Chicago economist Harald Uhlig tweeted out critical remarks about Black Lives Matter , we called for his head .
Ditto for UCLA business professor Gordon Klein , who was placed on leave after questioning students ’ demand to change his course requirements in light of the traumas suffered by African Americans .
And when respected Intercept reporter Lee Fang posted an interview with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ crime , Fang was denounced as a racist—really—on social media .
Never mind that Fang himself is mixed-race , or that he attended predominantly African-American public schools as a child .
The Twitter mob wanted blood , and it got it .
Enough already .
If you really believe in free speech , it isn ’ t enough to complain about somebody else .
You have to put your own house in order , and grant other people the same liberty that you want for yourself .
“ We believe in freedom of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ told the GOP convention .
“ Think what you want .
Seek out the truth .
Learn from those with different opinions .
Then freely , make your voice heard.
” If only her father would follow her advice !
The biggest danger to free speech is Donald Trump , who has used his own voice to suppress different opinions at every turn .
And the second biggest danger is that the rest of us are imitating Trump , all in the guise of resisting him .

Free speech is under threat in the United States. That’s what numerous speakers have told the Republican convention, which wraps up Thursday night.
They’re right. And the biggest threat comes from the man they’re re-nominating for president, Donald J. Trump.
Trump has called major media outlets “enemies of the people,” warning that he might withhold their broadcast licenses. He encouraged supporters at one of his rallies to assault protesters, promising to pay any legal bills that resulted. And he ordered the removal of peaceful demonstrators from the front of the White House, all so he could pose for a photo-op while holding a Bible.
You haven’t heard anything about that at the GOP convention, of course, where every attack is blamed on the other side. And that’s the biggest problem for free speech in our country right now. We all want the right to speak, but we’re perfectly happy to deny it to somebody else. And that isn’t free speech at all.
So numerous presenters at the convention railed against “cancel culture,” complaining that many Americans are prevented or discouraged from speaking their minds. At universities, especially, “students find themselves suppressing their beliefs to fit into the acceptable groupthink,” as Tiffany Trump, the president’s daughter, declared on Tuesday night.
That’s true. According to a wide swath of research, growing numbers of Americans bite their tongues for fear of being canceled on social media. Disagreement is fine; indeed, it’s the lifeblood of democracy. But when we seek to obliterate our opponents, rejecting not just their ideas but their humanity, we make honest discussion impossible.
But guess who is the Canceler-in-Chief? Donald Trump, of course. To Trump, political challengers aren’t simply people who disagree with him; they’re “losers,” “dummies,” “morons,” and more. He has called Mexicans rapists, women pigs, and African countries shitholes. Almost every day brings another vile presidential tweet, denigrating someone’s intellect, gender, or racial background.
Yet speaker after speaker at the GOP convention condemned opponents for cancelling them. “Joe Biden and the radical left are now coming for our freedom of speech and want to bully us into submission,” Donald Trump, Jr., charged. Seriously? What is his father, if not the quintessential bully? And how can Republicans champion free speech, but ignore the president’s own attacks on the same?
Alas, my fellow liberals have too often demonstrated a similar inconsistency. When Trump or another Republican endangers speech, we raise up a hue and cry. But when the threat comes from our own side, we keep quiet or even cheer it along.
So after prominent University of Chicago economist Harald Uhlig tweeted out critical remarks about Black Lives Matter, we called for his head. Ditto for UCLA business professor Gordon Klein, who was placed on leave after questioning students’ demand to change his course requirements in light of the traumas suffered by African Americans.
And when respected Intercept reporter Lee Fang posted an interview with an African American about black victims of crime, Fang was denounced as a racist—really—on social media. Never mind that Fang himself is mixed-race, or that he attended predominantly African-American public schools as a child. The Twitter mob wanted blood, and it got it.
Enough already. If you really believe in free speech, it isn’t enough to complain about somebody else. You have to put your own house in order, and grant other people the same liberty that you want for yourself. “We believe in freedom of thought and expression,” Tiffany Trump told the GOP convention. “Think what you want. Seek out the truth. Learn from those with different opinions. Then freely, make your voice heard.”
If only her father would follow her advice! The biggest danger to free speech is Donald Trump, who has used his own voice to suppress different opinions at every turn. And the second biggest danger is that the rest of us are imitating Trump, all in the guise of resisting him.


washingtonmonthly--2020-08-26--Trump Created a Permission Structure for the Shootings in Kenosha

On Wednesday , Republican Voters Against Trump released what might be their most powerful video to date .
It features Elizabeth Neumann , who previously served as Assistant Secretary for Threat Prevention in Trump ’ s DHS .
While Neumann ’ s remarks about the president ’ s mishandling of the coronavirus crisis are extremely important , what she has to say about the threat posed by white supremacists is incredibly timely .
She talked about the fact that , starting in 2017 , DHS became increasingly concerned about the growing threat posed by nationalist groups .
Neumann goes on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and actions “ gave permission to white supremacists to think that what they were doing was permissible.
” The reason why this is so timely is that , in the midst of protests in Kenosha , Wisconsin , three people were shot—two fatally—on Tuesday night .
The story about what happened is still developing .
But here ’ s what we know so far : The suspect , 17-year-old Kyle Rittenhouse , was reportedly arrested in his hometown of Antioch , Illinois , and charged with first-degree murder on Wednesday… Investigators say they @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with guns who were lined up outside some businesses a few blocks down the road from the courthouse , [ Sheriff David ] Beth told The New York Times .
Ostensibly , the vigilantes were there to “ protect ” businesses from fires that had been set during previous nights of demonstrations .
Some may have been drawn to the city through a Facebook post by a group calling itself the Kenosha Guard , which encouraged “ patriots ” to “ take up arms and defend our city tonight from the evil thugs @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Householder and Scott Bauer have provided us with some information about Rittenhouse .
Much of Rittenhouse ’ s Facebook page is devoted to praising law enforcement , with references to Blue Lives Matter , a movement that supports police .
He also can be seen holding an assault rifle .
Other photographs include those of badges of various law enforcement agencies , including the Chicago Police Department .
All of the badges have a black line across them — something police officers do with black tape or other material whenever an officer is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ In a photograph posted by his mother , he is wearing what appears to be a blue law enforcement uniform as well as the kind of brimmed hat that state troopers wear .
As of Wednesday , four people have been shot in Kenosha , Wisconsin , with two dead .
The people responsible for that violence are law enforcement and a gunman involved with a vigilante group that referred to the protesters as “ evil thugs.
” But we have a president who has never called out the groups that are actually @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Instead , he sends federal troops to attack peaceful protesters .
As Neumann pointed out , Trump ’ s words and actions have communicated that what these vigilantes are doing is permissible .
It all started before he was even elected .

On Wednesday, Republican Voters Against Trump released what might be their most powerful video to date. It features Elizabeth Neumann, who previously served as Assistant Secretary for Threat Prevention in Trump’s DHS.
While Neumann’s remarks about the president’s mishandling of the coronavirus crisis are extremely important, what she has to say about the threat posed by white supremacists is incredibly timely. She talked about the fact that, starting in 2017, DHS became increasingly concerned about the growing threat posed by nationalist groups. Neumann goes on to say that Trump’s words and actions “gave permission to white supremacists to think that what they were doing was permissible.”
The reason why this is so timely is that, in the midst of protests in Kenosha, Wisconsin, three people were shot—two fatally—on Tuesday night. The story about what happened is still developing. But here’s what we know so far:
The suspect, 17-year-old Kyle Rittenhouse, was reportedly arrested in his hometown of Antioch, Illinois, and charged with first-degree murder on Wednesday… Investigators say they are focusing on a group of men with guns who were lined up outside some businesses a few blocks down the road from the courthouse, [Sheriff David] Beth told The New York Times. Ostensibly, the vigilantes were there to “protect” businesses from fires that had been set during previous nights of demonstrations. Some may have been drawn to the city through a Facebook post by a group calling itself the Kenosha Guard, which encouraged “patriots” to “take up arms and defend our city tonight from the evil thugs,” The Verge reported.
Mike Householder and Scott Bauer have provided us with some information about Rittenhouse.
Much of Rittenhouse’s Facebook page is devoted to praising law enforcement, with references to Blue Lives Matter, a movement that supports police. He also can be seen holding an assault rifle. Other photographs include those of badges of various law enforcement agencies, including the Chicago Police Department. All of the badges have a black line across them — something police officers do with black tape or other material whenever an officer is killed in the line of duty. In a photograph posted by his mother, he is wearing what appears to be a blue law enforcement uniform as well as the kind of brimmed hat that state troopers wear.
As of Wednesday, four people have been shot in Kenosha, Wisconsin, with two dead. The people responsible for that violence are law enforcement and a gunman involved with a vigilante group that referred to the protesters as “evil thugs.” But we have a president who has never called out the groups that are actually responsible for spurring most of the violence. Instead, he sends federal troops to attack peaceful protesters. As Neumann pointed out, Trump’s words and actions have communicated that what these vigilantes are doing is permissible. It all started before he was even elected.


washingtonmonthly--2020-08-26--What Happens When Republicans Step Out of the Epistemic Bubble?

According to those who have spoken at the Republican National Convention , Joe Biden is a socialist who will unleash violent mobs and take away your freedoms .
The folks at the Lincoln Project pulled together some of these quotes , noting that this chaos is actually taking place under Donald Trump ’ s presidency .
What is happening at the Republican National Convention is simply a ramped-up version of how conservatives have been lying about Democrats for decades .
For example , you might remember that Barack Obama was accused of hating white people—even after he gave his speech @ @ @ @ @ @ @ union , ” in which he empathized with working and middle class white people .
Most working and middle-class white Americans don ’ t feel that they have been particularly privileged by their race .
Their experience is the immigrant experience — as far as they ’ re concerned , no one handed them anything .
They built it from scratch .
They ’ ve worked hard all their lives , many times only to see their jobs shipped overseas or their pensions dumped after a lifetime of labor .
Similarly , during @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that “ In much of the Democratic Party , it ’ s now fashionable to say that America is racist.
” Perhaps she didn ’ t hear the Democratic nominee speak eloquently on that very subject .
All of this is why I was struck by what Ashley Pratte , a board member of Republican Women for Progress , wrote in an op-ed for USA Today about her decision to vote for Biden .
This is the first year that I watched the Democratic National Convention without a Republican lens and found myself @ @ @ @ @ @ @ most of all the positive rhetoric… I recognized just how many of my views of the Democratic Party were shaped by the talking points of the GOP and just how wrong that was .
Over the past four years , my eyes have been opened and my views forever changed .
I have come to realize that all along , I aligned more with the moderate wing of the Democratic Party .
That speaks profoundly to what happens when conservatives step out of what ’ s been called the epistemic bubble created by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ media .
Pratte not only learned that Biden and Harris aren ’ t the people that have been caricatured beyond recognition .
She realized that her values align more closely with those of the Democratic Party .
I ’ m not suggesting that every Republican who stepped out of the epistemic bubble would reach the same conclusion .
But wouldn ’ t it be wonderful to have a conversation with conservative friends if it was possible to base it on who liberals are rather than the distorted images developed by the right ?
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ real differences rather than a constant struggle over lies .
Pratte ’ s experience isn ’ t unique .
That is precisely what is so powerful about the videos from Republican Voters Against Trump and people like veteran GOP consultant Stuart Stevens .
They capture the testimony of Republicans discovering they ’ ve been lied to by their party and right-wing media .
Opening the door to that kind of cognitive dissonance can be the first step in a fascinating—but sometimes terrifying—journey of changing one ’ s mind .

According to those who have spoken at the Republican National Convention, Joe Biden is a socialist who will unleash violent mobs and take away your freedoms. The folks at the Lincoln Project pulled together some of these quotes, noting that this chaos is actually taking place under Donald Trump’s presidency.
What is happening at the Republican National Convention is simply a ramped-up version of how conservatives have been lying about Democrats for decades. For example, you might remember that Barack Obama was accused of hating white people—even after he gave his speech in 2008 on “a more perfect union,” in which he empathized with working and middle class white people.
Most working and middle-class white Americans don’t feel that they have been particularly privileged by their race. Their experience is the immigrant experience — as far as they’re concerned, no one handed them anything. They built it from scratch. They’ve worked hard all their lives, many times only to see their jobs shipped overseas or their pensions dumped after a lifetime of labor.
Similarly, during her convention speech, Nikki Haley said that “In much of the Democratic Party, it’s now fashionable to say that America is racist.” Perhaps she didn’t hear the Democratic nominee speak eloquently on that very subject.
All of this is why I was struck by what Ashley Pratte, a board member of Republican Women for Progress, wrote in an op-ed for USA Today about her decision to vote for Biden.
This is the first year that I watched the Democratic National Convention without a Republican lens and found myself agreeing with the issues, speakers and most of all the positive rhetoric… I recognized just how many of my views of the Democratic Party were shaped by the talking points of the GOP and just how wrong that was. Over the past four years, my eyes have been opened and my views forever changed. I have come to realize that all along, I aligned more with the moderate wing of the Democratic Party.
That speaks profoundly to what happens when conservatives step out of what’s been called the epistemic bubble created by Republicans and their enablers in right wing media. Pratte not only learned that Biden and Harris aren’t the people that have been caricatured beyond recognition. She realized that her values align more closely with those of the Democratic Party.
I’m not suggesting that every Republican who stepped out of the epistemic bubble would reach the same conclusion. But wouldn’t it be wonderful to have a conversation with conservative friends if it was possible to base it on who liberals are rather than the distorted images developed by the right? That could lead to a discussion about real differences rather than a constant struggle over lies.
Pratte’s experience isn’t unique. That is precisely what is so powerful about the videos from Republican Voters Against Trump and people like veteran GOP consultant Stuart Stevens. They capture the testimony of Republicans discovering they’ve been lied to by their party and right-wing media. Opening the door to that kind of cognitive dissonance can be the first step in a fascinating—but sometimes terrifying—journey of changing one’s mind.


washingtonmonthly--2020-08-26--Two Hurricanes and COVID-19: Is God Angry at Trump?

Over the years , I ’ ve noticed that a lot of religious conservative leaders will interpret natural disasters or even events like 9/11 as divine punishment for some perceived sins of the American public .
It ’ s usually part of their scam , but it ’ s a natural human instinct to think that everything happens with God ’ s approval .
In another sense , tragedies that might make someone question the existence of a benevolent God can cause people to double down on their faith .
It ’ s always somewhat interesting to see who gets @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Any objective observer will note that ever since the Senate acquitted President Trump at his impeachment trial , on February 5 , the country has been receiving one crippling blow after another .
The timing suggests that God has responded with overwhelming disapproval of the verdict .
If you ’ re inclined to believe that God communicates with us in this way , this conclusion is hard to avoid .
There ’ s obviously the COVID-19 pandemic , in which the first confirmed case arrived at our shores during Trump ’ s trial @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with the novel coronavirus and other signs too , like mass protests , widespread looting , and a spike in violent crime .
Then there ’ s Mighty Zeus sending down at least 12,000 dry lightning bolts on California that set much of the state on fire .
We ’ ve had fire tornados and murder hornets , and even a case of bubonic plague .
The mercury recently reached a world record 130 degrees Fahrenheit in Death Valley .
I knew something was definitely awry when I learned that two hurricanes had @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Gulf of Mexico .
Apparently , meteorologists have never seen that happen before .
The first of these storms , Hurricane Laura , appears to have timed its arrival perfectly to disrupt the Republican National “ Convention.
” It ’ s set to hit the Texas-Louisiana coast on Wednesday night or early Thursday morning .
Not only that , but it was a bit sneaky about it .
Stewing over the exceptionally warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico , Laura had the potential to rapidly intensify , forecasters knew .
But then @ @ @ @ @ @ @ storm was closing in on the vulnerable Texas-Louisiana coastline was like a punch to the gut .
Here are some comments from scientists via Twitter as they awoke to the strengthening Category 3 storm upon glancing at the latest satellite imagery : “ This is not an image you ever want to see.
” — Samantha Montano , disaster expert , Massachusetts Maritime Academy “ This is a nightmare for emergency managers .
18 hours before landfall , rapidly strengthening hurricane , worse than predictions.
” — Bill Karins , MSNBC meteorologist As @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is predicting an “ unsurvivable storm surge with large and destructive waves ” that “ will cause catastrophic damage…up to 30 miles inland.
” It seems the president should be spending the 27th completely dedicated to managing the emergency response to this catastrophe , but that ’ s the day of his big convention speech .
If he goes ahead with it as he will , he ’ ll arguably be fiddling while Rome burns .
It ’ s like God is punking the president .
Religious conservatives are essential to Trump ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ inclined to see natural disasters as messages from God and now in a bind .
Do they listen to the message , or ignore it ?

Over the years, I’ve noticed that a lot of religious conservative leaders will interpret natural disasters or even events like 9/11 as divine punishment for some perceived sins of the American public. It’s usually part of their scam, but it’s a natural human instinct to think that everything happens with God’s approval. In another sense, tragedies that might make someone question the existence of a benevolent God can cause people to double down on their faith. It’s always somewhat interesting to see who gets blamed when things go horribly wrong.
Any objective observer will note that ever since the Senate acquitted President Trump at his impeachment trial, on February 5, the country has been receiving one crippling blow after another. The timing suggests that God has responded with overwhelming disapproval of the verdict. If you’re inclined to believe that God communicates with us in this way, this conclusion is hard to avoid. There’s obviously the COVID-19 pandemic, in which the first confirmed case arrived at our shores during Trump’s trial. There the massive job losses associated with the novel coronavirus and other signs too, like mass protests, widespread looting, and a spike in violent crime. Then there’s Mighty Zeus sending down at least 12,000 dry lightning bolts on California that set much of the state on fire. We’ve had fire tornados and murder hornets, and even a case of bubonic plague. The mercury recently reached a world record 130 degrees Fahrenheit in Death Valley.
I knew something was definitely awry when I learned that two hurricanes had formed at the same time in the Gulf of Mexico. Apparently, meteorologists have never seen that happen before. The first of these storms, Hurricane Laura, appears to have timed its arrival perfectly to disrupt the Republican National “Convention.” It’s set to hit the Texas-Louisiana coast on Wednesday night or early Thursday morning. Not only that, but it was a bit sneaky about it.
Stewing over the exceptionally warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico, Laura had the potential to rapidly intensify, forecasters knew. But then to see it actually happen as the storm was closing in on the vulnerable Texas-Louisiana coastline was like a punch to the gut. Here are some comments from scientists via Twitter as they awoke to the strengthening Category 3 storm upon glancing at the latest satellite imagery: “This is not an image you ever want to see.” — Samantha Montano, disaster expert, Massachusetts Maritime Academy “This is a nightmare for emergency managers. 18 hours before landfall, rapidly strengthening hurricane, worse than predictions.” — Bill Karins, MSNBC meteorologist As things stand, the National Hurricane Center is predicting an “unsurvivable storm surge with large and destructive waves” that “will cause catastrophic damage…up to 30 miles inland.” It seems the president should be spending the 27th completely dedicated to managing the emergency response to this catastrophe, but that’s the day of his big convention speech. If he goes ahead with it as he will, he’ll arguably be fiddling while Rome burns. It’s like God is punking the president. Religious conservatives are essential to Trump’s base, so the people most inclined to see natural disasters as messages from God and now in a bind. Do they listen to the message, or ignore it?