washingtonmonthly--2020-11-11--“Stolen Election” is the New “Birtherism”

Donald Trump ’ s reaction to the election results has been to hunker down in the White House .
He hasn ’ t stood before a microphone since his disastrous remarks on Thursday from the White House Briefing Room .
Instead , he tweets about voter “ fraud.
” As a fact-check , the New York Times contacted election officials in every state .
None of them reported any major voting issues .
Nevertheless , most Republicans have encouraged the president to continue his hapless legal battle .
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said that Trump is “ 100 percent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and litigation .
Republican Senators eyeing the presidency in 2024 have fueled Trump ’ s fantasies , including Ted Cruz , Tom Cotton , Josh Hawley , Marco Rubio , and Lindsey Graham .
Once again , the Republican Party is standing behind this president and defending the indefensible .
According to a poll conducted by Politico ’ s Morning Consult , the message Trump and Republicans are sending is having an impact on their base of support .
Before the news on Saturday that Biden had won the election , 35 percent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that the 2020 election was free and fair .
After the announcement , the number jumped to 70 percent .
That is dangerous .
But when it comes to proving their case in the courts , Trump and the GOP are failing miserably .
So what ’ s the end-game ?
You might remember that it wasn ’ t until Barack Obama became the 44th president that the whole “ birther ” conspiracy theory really took off .
While it had been rumbling around in the dark corners of the internet prior to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the first African American president wasn ’ t qualified for the office became a right-wing rallying cry soon after he won .
Republicans exploited the racism fanned by those claims to delegitimize Obama ’ s presidency and justify their obstruction of anything he tried to do .
Last May , McConnell made it clear that , if a Democrat were elected president , he would once again employ the strategy of total obstruction .
But Joe Biden is an old white guy , so Republicans need a new twist on racism to make @ @ @ @ @ @ @ focus on cities with high concentrations of people of color—like Detroit and Philadelphia—they are inflaming the GOP base with questions about the legitimacy of Biden ’ s presidency by claiming that it was “ those people ” who stole the election .
That will be their rationale for total obstruction .
During an interview on Fox News , Newt Gingrich actually laid out the plan .
Claiming that the election was a Democratic “ power grab ” financed by ( of course ) George Soros , Gingrich threw a bone to anti-Semites in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ it is very hard for me to understand how we [ Democrats and Republicans ] are going to work together , ” which is really his point .
This is all pretext for massive resistance to anything President Biden tries to do .
The plan is to deny Biden legitimacy .
Right-wing media will give Republicans cover to maintain the lie by obsessing about “ investigations ” and “ reports ” of a “ stolen election.
” Meanwhile , GOP voters will encourage them while failing to hold their leaders accountable for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pretty well for Republicans during the Obama presidency .
With a few tweaks , they ’ re teeing it up once again .

Donald Trump’s reaction to the election results has been to hunker down in the White House. He hasn’t stood before a microphone since his disastrous remarks on Thursday from the White House Briefing Room. Instead, he tweets about voter “fraud.” As a fact-check, the New York Times contacted election officials in every state. None of them reported any major voting issues.
Nevertheless, most Republicans have encouraged the president to continue his hapless legal battle. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said that Trump is “100 percent within his right” to pursue recounts and litigation. Republican Senators eyeing the presidency in 2024 have fueled Trump’s fantasies, including Ted Cruz, Tom Cotton, Josh Hawley, Marco Rubio, and Lindsey Graham. Once again, the Republican Party is standing behind this president and defending the indefensible.
According to a poll conducted by Politico’s Morning Consult, the message Trump and Republicans are sending is having an impact on their base of support. Before the news on Saturday that Biden had won the election, 35 percent of Republican voters didn’t trust that the 2020 election was free and fair. After the announcement, the number jumped to 70 percent. That is dangerous.
But when it comes to proving their case in the courts, Trump and the GOP are failing miserably. So what’s the end-game?
You might remember that it wasn’t until Barack Obama became the 44th president that the whole “birther” conspiracy theory really took off. While it had been rumbling around in the dark corners of the internet prior to the 2008 election, the notion that the first African American president wasn’t qualified for the office became a right-wing rallying cry soon after he won. Republicans exploited the racism fanned by those claims to delegitimize Obama’s presidency and justify their obstruction of anything he tried to do.
Last May, McConnell made it clear that, if a Democrat were elected president, he would once again employ the strategy of total obstruction. But Joe Biden is an old white guy, so Republicans need a new twist on racism to make it work this time.
With a focus on cities with high concentrations of people of color—like Detroit and Philadelphia—they are inflaming the GOP base with questions about the legitimacy of Biden’s presidency by claiming that it was “those people” who stole the election. That will be their rationale for total obstruction. During an interview on Fox News, Newt Gingrich actually laid out the plan.
Claiming that the election was a Democratic “power grab” financed by (of course) George Soros, Gingrich threw a bone to anti-Semites in the Republican base. He concluded that “it is very hard for me to understand how we [Democrats and Republicans] are going to work together,” which is really his point. This is all pretext for massive resistance to anything President Biden tries to do.
The plan is to deny Biden legitimacy. Right-wing media will give Republicans cover to maintain the lie by obsessing about “investigations” and “reports” of a “stolen election.” Meanwhile, GOP voters will encourage them while failing to hold their leaders accountable for refusing to govern.
That strategy worked pretty well for Republicans during the Obama presidency. With a few tweaks, they’re teeing it up once again.


washingtonmonthly--2020-11-13--Ron Klain’s Magic Power: Making Government Work

After Donald Trump ’ s election in 2016 , he chose Cabinet members who had spent their careers undermining the departments they were chosen to lead .
During remarks at CPAC in February 2017 , Steve Bannon—who was then serving as Chief Strategist and Senior Counselor to the President—explained why those choices were no accident .
Cabinet members were selected to render “ the deconstruction of the administrative state.
” As a result , bureaucracies like the State Department were decimated .
The primary qualification for working in the administration was not expertise or competence , but loyalty to the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ball .
None of that posed a problem for Republicans who , for decades , have embraced Ronald Reagan ’ s mantra about government being the problem , not the solution .
When the federal government proves itself to be ineffective , that reinforces their claims .
On the other end of the political spectrum , progressives haven ’ t paid much attention to how well the federal government works either .
That is because the focus on the left has been about promoting policies and legislative priorities , as Paul Glastris pointed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2015 .
Too often , we forget that one of the executive branch ’ s main tasks is to implement legislation .
When that task is done poorly , as we saw with the Paycheck Protection Program that was supposed to support small businesses affected by the coronavirus pandemic , the American people pay the price , and the party that promotes the role of government in addressing the issues we face suffers .
With the deconstruction of the administrative state under Trump , no president in modern history will face a bigger @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
That is why his choice of Ronald Klain to be chief of staff is so important .
In his book Gatekeepers : How the White House Chiefs of Staff Define Every Presidency , Chris Whipple recounts an interview with former president Barack Obama , who said , “ One of the things I ’ ve learned is that the big breakthroughs are typically the result of a lot of grunt work—just a whole lot of blocking and tackling.
” Grunt work is what chiefs of staff do .
Their job is to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ interagency process works and break any logjams that might halt progress .
In choosing Ronald Klain to be his chief of staff , Biden picked someone he trusts—a critical qualification for that position .
He also chose someone who achieved the rare hat trick of serving in all three branches of government .
Klain was a law clerk for Supreme Court Justice Byron White , served as Chief Counsel to the Senate Judiciary Committee during Biden ’ s term as chair , and was chief of staff to Attorney General Janet Reno , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ himself when he was vice president .
But perhaps Klain ’ s most relevant role for the moment was as Obama ’ s Ebola Czar .
The initial response of the Obama administration to the outbreak of Ebola in 2014 was a bit chaotic .
When Klain was called on to address that problem , the choice was viewed as controversial .
He isn ’ t a doctor or an epidemiologist , but a lawyer by training and a Democratic operative by experience .
But as Vox ’ s Ezra Klein noted : @ @ @ @ @ @ @ It has public health professionals .
It needed someone to coordinate responses .
It needed someone who understood how to make government work , and because ‘ government ’ is not singular , but a plural , work together.
” Politico ’ s Blake Hounshell pointed out why Klain was the right pick for that job .
For a president entering office in the midst of the coronavirus pandemic , Klain ’ s experience as the Ebola Czar will be invaluable .
But beyond that , Biden and Harris will face the enormous @ @ @ @ @ @ @ While legislative priorities and executive orders will be a critical part of their work , none of that will be effective until personnel are in place and accountable for carrying out the president ’ s agenda .
Someone like Ronald Klain , who understands how to make government work , will be a critical part of that process .

After Donald Trump’s election in 2016, he chose Cabinet members who had spent their careers undermining the departments they were chosen to lead. During remarks at CPAC in February 2017, Steve Bannon—who was then serving as Chief Strategist and Senior Counselor to the President—explained why those choices were no accident. Cabinet members were selected to render “the deconstruction of the administrative state.” As a result, bureaucracies like the State Department were decimated. The primary qualification for working in the administration was not expertise or competence, but loyalty to the president and delight in being a wrecking ball.
None of that posed a problem for Republicans who, for decades, have embraced Ronald Reagan’s mantra about government being the problem, not the solution. When the federal government proves itself to be ineffective, that reinforces their claims.
On the other end of the political spectrum, progressives haven’t paid much attention to how well the federal government works either. That is because the focus on the left has been about promoting policies and legislative priorities, as Paul Glastris pointed out here at the Washington Monthly in 2015.
But for the most part today’s left-leaning progressives are almost entirely focused on politics, economic justice, social issues, and the influence of money in politics. These are important subjects. But the vast complex of government is largely a black box to these folks…What I’m saying is this: there are energies being unleashed today that give the country a shot at reforming itself. But reform can’t and won’t happen until the left takes government—its structure and functioning—far more seriously.
Too often, we forget that one of the executive branch’s main tasks is to implement legislation. When that task is done poorly, as we saw with the Paycheck Protection Program that was supposed to support small businesses affected by the coronavirus pandemic, the American people pay the price, and the party that promotes the role of government in addressing the issues we face suffers.
With the deconstruction of the administrative state under Trump, no president in modern history will face a bigger challenge in this arena than Joe Biden. That is why his choice of Ronald Klain to be chief of staff is so important.
In his book Gatekeepers: How the White House Chiefs of Staff Define Every Presidency, Chris Whipple recounts an interview with former president Barack Obama, who said, “One of the things I’ve learned is that the big breakthroughs are typically the result of a lot of grunt work—just a whole lot of blocking and tackling.” Grunt work is what chiefs of staff do. Their job is to understand how the federal government’s interagency process works and break any logjams that might halt progress.
In choosing Ronald Klain to be his chief of staff, Biden picked someone he trusts—a critical qualification for that position. He also chose someone who achieved the rare hat trick of serving in all three branches of government. Klain was a law clerk for Supreme Court Justice Byron White, served as Chief Counsel to the Senate Judiciary Committee during Biden’s term as chair, and was chief of staff to Attorney General Janet Reno, Vice President Al Gore, and Biden himself when he was vice president. But perhaps Klain’s most relevant role for the moment was as Obama’s Ebola Czar.
The initial response of the Obama administration to the outbreak of Ebola in 2014 was a bit chaotic. When Klain was called on to address that problem, the choice was viewed as controversial. He isn’t a doctor or an epidemiologist, but a lawyer by training and a Democratic operative by experience. But as Vox’s Ezra Klein noted: “The federal government has epidemiologists. It has public health professionals. It needed someone to coordinate responses. It needed someone who understood how to make government work, and because ‘government’ is not singular, but a plural, work together.” Politico’s Blake Hounshell pointed out why Klain was the right pick for that job.
For a president entering office in the midst of the coronavirus pandemic, Klain’s experience as the Ebola Czar will be invaluable. But beyond that, Biden and Harris will face the enormous task of reconstructing the federal government. While legislative priorities and executive orders will be a critical part of their work, none of that will be effective until personnel are in place and accountable for carrying out the president’s agenda. Someone like Ronald Klain, who understands how to make government work, will be a critical part of that process.


Reefer Madness

Even though Joe Biden won a resounding victory against Donald Trump , Democrats , of course , didn ’ t fare well in down-ballot races .
While they maintained their House majority , as of Friday , with15 races left to call , they had a disappointing net loss of six seats .
As a result , finger-pointing to assign blame has begun .
But as Democratic House Speaker Tip O ’ Neill said , “ all politics is local.
” When it comes to down-ballot races in Minnesota , he was right .
A few weeks ago , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ district made national news when Adam Weeks of the Legal Marijuana Now Party suddenly died but remained on the ballot and got almost 25,000 votes .
Despite that , incumbent Democrat Angie Craig held on to her seat .
But that isn ’ t the end of the story .
Minnesota has eight congressional districts , and a candidate from one of two marijuana legalization parties was on the ballot in six of them .
The pro-pot third-party candidates picked up from 17,000 to 38,000 votes in each district .
The race where @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have been decisive was in the 1st congressional district , where Republican Jim Hagedorn won reelection by about 11,000 votes , and Bill Rood from the Grassroots-Legalize Cannabis Party garnered 21,000 , presumably getting the majority of his support from voters who might have gone Democratic .
In Minnesota ’ s 7th district , Democrat Colin Peterson—who had held the seat for 30 years—faced an uphill battle for reelection in a rural district that went for Trump by 31 points in 2016 .
Slater Johnson of the Legal Marijuana Now Party was on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ But Peterson lost by 46,000 , so in the end , Johnson ’ s candidacy wasn ’ t decisive .
Pro-marijuana legalization candidates were also on the ballot in several state senate races in Minnesota .
Democrats only needed to flip two seats to gain a majority in the chamber but were thwarted in that effort by pro-pot candidates , who swung several tight races to the Republicans .
The pro-marijuana candidates appear to have been part of an orchestrated effort by Republicans .
The Star Tribune obtained a voicemail in which Weeks @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that Republicans asked him to run , hoping he would “ pull votes away ” from Craig .
Tyler Becvar , who ran in senate district 27 on the Legal Marijuana Now Party ticket , openly acknowledged his support for Trump and , amazingly , expressed ambivalence about his support for marijuana legalization .
Last May , Becvar posted a video on Facebook promoting the Republican candidate in his race .
That Republican beat the Democrat by 1,900 votes .
Becvar garnered more than 2,500 .
Robyn Smith , a Legal Marijuana Now @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , has not only praised Trump on social media , she admitted that she was recruited to run by a Republican , but refused to name the person .
Another marijuana activist claims that Minnesota Senate Majority Leader Paul Gazelka encouraged him to run as a legalization candidate in a tightly contested district .
The activist declined , saying that “ It didn ’ t make sense to me .
I was dumbfounded.
” The state Democratic Party ( DFL ) issued a statement about these activities when reports first surfaced in June @ @ @ @ @ @ @ strength of their values and ideas , Republicans have recruited third party candidates in order to deceive Minnesotans and steal votes .
Senator Paul Gazelka , Representative Kurt Daudt , and the Republican Party must level with the people of Minnesota – did you or your allies recruit these candidates or do you disavow these dirty tricks ?
You don ’ t need dirty tricks if you ’ re running on an agenda that the people of Minnesota actually support .
Elections should be decided in a fair , transparent election process around @ @ @ @ @ @ @ their communities .
These types of underhanded and deceptive tactics are more akin to Russia than Minnesota .
Republican Tom Emmer ’ s 6th congressional district is one of the two that didn ’ t include a pro-marijuana candidate on the ticket .
Given that he occupies the seat once held by Michele Bachmann , that race was never in doubt .
But for the last year , Emmer chaired the Republican Congressional Campaign Committee .
At a minimum , he would have been aware of an orchestrated attempt in the state to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ elections in favor of Republicans .
The irony is that Minnesota Republicans have blocked efforts by Gov .
Tim Walz and Democrats to legalize marijuana .
With an assist from pro-marijuana candidates , Republicans maintained their majority in the state senate , ensuring that legalization is stalled for at least another two years .
There are lessons in that for anyone interested in learning : ( 1 ) Republicans will cynically exploit anything to gain an electoral advantage , and ( 2 ) voting in a two-party system often requires strategy as much @ @ @

Even though Joe Biden won a resounding victory against Donald Trump, Democrats, of course, didn’t fare well in down-ballot races. While they maintained their House majority, as of Friday, with15 races left to call, they had a disappointing net loss of six seats.
As a result, finger-pointing to assign blame has begun. But as Democratic House Speaker Tip O’Neill said, “all politics is local.” When it comes to down-ballot races in Minnesota, he was right.
A few weeks ago, the race in Minnesota’s 2nd congressional district made national news when Adam Weeks of the Legal Marijuana Now Party suddenly died but remained on the ballot and got almost 25,000 votes. Despite that, incumbent Democrat Angie Craig held on to her seat.
But that isn’t the end of the story. Minnesota has eight congressional districts, and a candidate from one of two marijuana legalization parties was on the ballot in six of them. The pro-pot third-party candidates picked up from 17,000 to 38,000 votes in each district. The race where the cannabis candidate’s presence might have been decisive was in the 1st congressional district, where Republican Jim Hagedorn won reelection by about 11,000 votes, and Bill Rood from the Grassroots-Legalize Cannabis Party garnered 21,000, presumably getting the majority of his support from voters who might have gone Democratic.
In Minnesota’s 7th district, Democrat Colin Peterson—who had held the seat for 30 years—faced an uphill battle for reelection in a rural district that went for Trump by 31 points in 2016. Slater Johnson of the Legal Marijuana Now Party was on the ballot and won 17,000 votes. But Peterson lost by 46,000, so in the end, Johnson’s candidacy wasn’t decisive.
Pro-marijuana legalization candidates were also on the ballot in several state senate races in Minnesota. Democrats only needed to flip two seats to gain a majority in the chamber but were thwarted in that effort by pro-pot candidates, who swung several tight races to the Republicans.
The pro-marijuana candidates appear to have been part of an orchestrated effort by Republicans. The Star Tribune obtained a voicemail in which Weeks, prior to his death, said that Republicans asked him to run, hoping he would “pull votes away” from Craig.
Tyler Becvar, who ran in senate district 27 on the Legal Marijuana Now Party ticket, openly acknowledged his support for Trump and, amazingly, expressed ambivalence about his support for marijuana legalization. Last May, Becvar posted a video on Facebook promoting the Republican candidate in his race. That Republican beat the Democrat by 1,900 votes. Becvar garnered more than 2,500.
Robyn Smith, a Legal Marijuana Now candidate in the senate district 5 race, has not only praised Trump on social media, she admitted that she was recruited to run by a Republican, but refused to name the person. Another marijuana activist claims that Minnesota Senate Majority Leader Paul Gazelka encouraged him to run as a legalization candidate in a tightly contested district. The activist declined, saying that “It didn’t make sense to me. I was dumbfounded.”
The state Democratic Party (DFL) issued a statement about these activities when reports first surfaced in June 2020.
Instead of running on the strength of their values and ideas, Republicans have recruited third party candidates in order to deceive Minnesotans and steal votes. Senator Paul Gazelka, Representative Kurt Daudt, and the Republican Party must level with the people of Minnesota – did you or your allies recruit these candidates or do you disavow these dirty tricks? You don’t need dirty tricks if you’re running on an agenda that the people of Minnesota actually support. Elections should be decided in a fair, transparent election process around the issues that people care about in their communities. These types of underhanded and deceptive tactics are more akin to Russia than Minnesota.
Republican Tom Emmer’s 6th congressional district is one of the two that didn’t include a pro-marijuana candidate on the ticket. Given that he occupies the seat once held by Michele Bachmann, that race was never in doubt. But for the last year, Emmer chaired the Republican Congressional Campaign Committee. At a minimum, he would have been aware of an orchestrated attempt in the state to promote pro-marijuana third party candidates to swing elections in favor of Republicans.
The irony is that Minnesota Republicans have blocked efforts by Gov. Tim Walz and Democrats to legalize marijuana. With an assist from pro-marijuana candidates, Republicans maintained their majority in the state senate, ensuring that legalization is stalled for at least another two years.
There are lessons in that for anyone interested in learning: (1) Republicans will cynically exploit anything to gain an electoral advantage, and (2) voting in a two-party system often requires strategy as much as passion.


washingtonmonthly--2020-11-13--What Joe Biden Could Learn From Harry Truman About Hiring Republicans

There ’ s a simple , politically smart way that Joe Biden can keep his victory speech promise to “ listen to each other again [ and ] stop treating our opponents as enemies.
” He should place a handful of conservative and libertarian-leaning advisors in appointed roles that have “ soft ” influence rather than formal policy-making authority .
Doing so would have far lower political costs than putting Republicans in charge of mammoth federal departments and agencies while providing real dividends for both national unity and the president ’ s agenda .
In recent years , many presidential @ @ @ @ @ @ @ involved appointing a few tokens who don ’ t share the president ’ s party affiliation in technocratic roles overseeing sizeable parts of the federal apparatus .
Both Barack Obama and George W. Bush had kept one member of their predecessor ’ s cabinet and even Donald Trump promoted an Obama administration holdover—VA official David Shulkin—to serve as his first Secretary of Veterans Affairs .
And , while some cabinet appointees not from the president ’ s party such as Obama ’ s first Secretary of Transportation , Ray LaHood , a longtime @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Douglas Dillon , a veteran Eisenhower official , have served ably , not all have .
Many recent other-party appointees in cabinet-level jobs had short , stormy tenures like those of Shulkin under Trump , Obama Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel , and first-ever Secretary of Energy James Schlesinger under Jimmy Carter who had been Defense Secretary and CIA Director under Republicans .
On the other hand , people of another party with “ soft ” power but small or no formal roles have a far better and more consistent record of accomplishment .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ with key speeches and appeals while Franklin Roosevelt relied on a Republican who challenged him for the presidency , Wendell Wilkie , to build the World War II alliance with the United Kingdom .
As Ambassador to the United Nations , Democrat Jeane Kirkpatrick shaped Ronald Reagan ’ s foreign policy more than anyone else than while former Republican President Herbert Hoover took on a formal role advising Harry Truman on how to remake the federal bureaucracy following the end of World War II .
Richard Nixon ’ s decision to solidify and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ eliminating them happened while Daniel Patrick Moynihan served as a top domestic policy aide .
Finally , Bill Clinton ’ s return to the center and political success following a rough first two years in office can be credited in part to ( mostly ) Republican fixer Dick Morris .
Such advisors offer an obvious political advantage for a president relative to a showy cabinet appointee : They have little or no formal power—many never even had paid jobs–and they mostly do not face Senate confirmation .
Thus , if it doesn ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lower profile and easier to dismiss .
Obama faced embarrassment and delay when he offered the Commerce Department to his Republican colleague , Sen. Judd Gregg of New Hampshire , who accepted and then changed his mind before confirmation hearings saying he couldn ’ t abide Obama ’ s big-spending ways .
Less high-profile advisors are freer to offer a genuine outside view than would the token secretary in the peer-pressure packed cabinet meeting .
It ’ s true that Biden ’ s left flank may feel that any jobs given to the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ unless Biden wants to capitulate to their demand for Democratic uniformity , he ’ s going to have to annoy them with some appointments .
Informal advisors at a variety of levels could let Biden have his cake with his party ’ s left and eat it too .
For Biden , then , a handful of advisors who have voice and input rather than policy authority could build more bridges at a lower political cost than , say , appointing Republican Meg Whitman as Secretary of Commerce .
The former eBay and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ backed Biden doesn ’ t really have buy-in with the GOP leadership or the Republican base .
She might do fine but she ’ s not bringing any juice with her party .
In particular , Biden should install at least one right-leaning advisor he trusts in a West Wing office , pick a Republican such as never Trumper and long-time Republican political strategist Liz Mair as a deputy director of the Office of Public Liaison , and appoint five or so other people with right-of-center resumes to strategic outreach and advisory positions @ @ @ @ @ @ @ dozen Republicans is not a big ask in a big government .
Such men and women would , of course , have to behave like all other political appointees and refrain from public criticism of the administration while keeping confidences .
Biden shouldn ’ t hire anyone who he thinks might be a spy .
But his right-of-center appointees should also have the latitude to offer internal critiques of policies , even harsh ones , without fear for their jobs .
Just as importantly , these officials would also keep open lines of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
They might show their faces at the Wednesday center-right meeting Grover Norquist runs , the American Legislative Exchange Council , CPAC , and other right-of-center convenings .
There , they would take fire for the president , listen to critiques , help him avoid landmines , and build right-of-center support for policies that have genuine cross-party appeal .
This might prove to be a Kamikaze mission .
But the president will get credit for bravery and real outreach as opposed to putting a Cabinet RINO on his trophy wall .
And , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tremendous political gains .
Right-of-center advisors not tied down to the business of running agencies would provide an “ early warning system ” to alert him to the latest trends in the GOP and retain strong social networks .
Such folk might also have better political instincts with regard to Congress than the country-club Republicans who might serve in the cabinet .
Finally , bringing in a few advisors trusted in the conservative movement would show an open-mindedness that the media would love , and they might even have some good ideas à @ @ @ @ @ @ @ any campaign promises or key Democratic party constituencies .
A large Republican-leaning business constituency angered by Trump ’ s destructive trade wars will naturally like Biden ’ s international commerce policy more than Trump ’ s .
While a narrow House majority and likely Republican Senate will put an ambitious Green New Deal out of reach for a Biden administration , large parts of the “ eco-right ” agenda of cutting destructive energy subsidies and deregulating energy markets to fight climate change might offer a promising way forward on the environment .
Even @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Senators like Josh Hawley and Marco Rubio—could offer support for some social safety net expansions with left-of-center appeal .
Biden can do a lot to advance his agenda not by picking token Republicans to serve as window dressing in cabinet slots but should , instead , pepper his administration with a few Republican-leaning advisors who want to help him heal a riven nation .

There’s a simple, politically smart way that Joe Biden can keep his victory speech promise to “listen to each other again [and] stop treating our opponents as enemies.” He should place a handful of conservative and libertarian-leaning advisors in appointed roles that have “soft” influence rather than formal policy-making authority. Doing so would have far lower political costs than putting Republicans in charge of mammoth federal departments and agencies while providing real dividends for both national unity and the president’s agenda.
In recent years, many presidential efforts to “reach out” have involved appointing a few tokens who don’t share the president’s party affiliation in technocratic roles overseeing sizeable parts of the federal apparatus. Both Barack Obama and George W. Bush had kept one member of their predecessor’s cabinet and even Donald Trump promoted an Obama administration holdover—VA official David Shulkin—to serve as his first Secretary of Veterans Affairs. And, while some cabinet appointees not from the president’s party such as Obama’s first Secretary of Transportation, Ray LaHood, a longtime Republican congressman and Kennedy-Johnson Treasury Secretary C. Douglas Dillon, a veteran Eisenhower official, have served ably, not all have. Many recent other-party appointees in cabinet-level jobs had short, stormy tenures like those of Shulkin under Trump, Obama Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel, and first-ever Secretary of Energy James Schlesinger under Jimmy Carter who had been Defense Secretary and CIA Director under Republicans.
On the other hand, people of another party with “soft” power but small or no formal roles have a far better and more consistent record of accomplishment. War Democrat George Bancroft helped Abraham Lincoln with key speeches and appeals while Franklin Roosevelt relied on a Republican who challenged him for the presidency, Wendell Wilkie, to build the World War II alliance with the United Kingdom. As Ambassador to the United Nations, Democrat Jeane Kirkpatrick shaped Ronald Reagan’s foreign policy more than anyone else than while former Republican President Herbert Hoover took on a formal role advising Harry Truman on how to remake the federal bureaucracy following the end of World War II. Richard Nixon’s decision to solidify and expand many Great Society programs rather than eliminating them happened while Daniel Patrick Moynihan served as a top domestic policy aide. Finally, Bill Clinton’s return to the center and political success following a rough first two years in office can be credited in part to (mostly) Republican fixer Dick Morris.
Such advisors offer an obvious political advantage for a president relative to a showy cabinet appointee: They have little or no formal power—many never even had paid jobs–and they mostly do not face Senate confirmation. Thus, if it doesn’t work out, they’re lower profile and easier to dismiss. Obama faced embarrassment and delay when he offered the Commerce Department to his Republican colleague, Sen. Judd Gregg of New Hampshire, who accepted and then changed his mind before confirmation hearings saying he couldn’t abide Obama’s big-spending ways. Less high-profile advisors are freer to offer a genuine outside view than would the token secretary in the peer-pressure packed cabinet meeting.
It’s true that Biden’s left flank may feel that any jobs given to the other party represent unforgivable ingratitude. But unless Biden wants to capitulate to their demand for Democratic uniformity, he’s going to have to annoy them with some appointments. Informal advisors at a variety of levels could let Biden have his cake with his party’s left and eat it too.
For Biden, then, a handful of advisors who have voice and input rather than policy authority could build more bridges at a lower political cost than, say, appointing Republican Meg Whitman as Secretary of Commerce. The former eBay and HP CEO and California gubernatorial candidate who backed Biden doesn’t really have buy-in with the GOP leadership or the Republican base. She might do fine but she’s not bringing any juice with her party. In particular, Biden should install at least one right-leaning advisor he trusts in a West Wing office, pick a Republican such as never Trumper and long-time Republican political strategist Liz Mair as a deputy director of the Office of Public Liaison, and appoint five or so other people with right-of-center resumes to strategic outreach and advisory positions throughout the executive branch. A half dozen Republicans is not a big ask in a big government. Such men and women would, of course, have to behave like all other political appointees and refrain from public criticism of the administration while keeping confidences. Biden shouldn’t hire anyone who he thinks might be a spy. But his right-of-center appointees should also have the latitude to offer internal critiques of policies, even harsh ones, without fear for their jobs.
Just as importantly, these officials would also keep open lines of communication with right-of-center activist groups and factions. They might show their faces at the Wednesday center-right meeting Grover Norquist runs, the American Legislative Exchange Council, CPAC, and other right-of-center convenings. There, they would take fire for the president, listen to critiques, help him avoid landmines, and build right-of-center support for policies that have genuine cross-party appeal. This might prove to be a Kamikaze mission. But the president will get credit for bravery and real outreach as opposed to putting a Cabinet RINO on his trophy wall.
And, of course, Biden himself could reap tremendous political gains. Right-of-center advisors not tied down to the business of running agencies would provide an “early warning system” to alert him to the latest trends in the GOP and retain strong social networks. Such folk might also have better political instincts with regard to Congress than the country-club Republicans who might serve in the cabinet. Finally, bringing in a few advisors trusted in the conservative movement would show an open-mindedness that the media would love, and they might even have some good ideas à la Moynihan.
Biden need not betray any campaign promises or key Democratic party constituencies. A large Republican-leaning business constituency angered by Trump’s destructive trade wars will naturally like Biden’s international commerce policy more than Trump’s. While a narrow House majority and likely Republican Senate will put an ambitious Green New Deal out of reach for a Biden administration, large parts of the “eco-right” agenda of cutting destructive energy subsidies and deregulating energy markets to fight climate change might offer a promising way forward on the environment. Even the GOP’s smarter-than-Trump populists—people around Senators like Josh Hawley and Marco Rubio—could offer support for some social safety net expansions with left-of-center appeal.
Biden can do a lot to advance his agenda not by picking token Republicans to serve as window dressing in cabinet slots but should, instead, pepper his administration with a few Republican-leaning advisors who want to help him heal a riven nation.


washingtonmonthly--2020-11-15--Arizona is Now Blue, But Will It Stay That Way?

Much to the consternation of the Trump campaign , the Fox News decision desk called Arizona for the Biden-Harris ticket on Election night .
But it wasn ’ t until Thursday night , nine days later , that the rest of the networks followed suit .
While the results are not certified , the margin of victory will almost surely be over 11,000 votes , reminiscent of the 10,704 by which Donald Trump carried Michigan in 2016 .
This is only the second time since Harry Truman ’ s victory in 1948 that the Democrats have carried Arizona .
In @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by 31,000 votes , but he was assisted by a strong performance by center-right Reform Party challenger H. Ross Perot who hurt Republican nominee Bob Dole by peeling off 112,000 votes .
By Friday , Trump had won North Carolina and Biden had taken Georgia , although an audit must be completed by Wednesday , November 18 before final certification on the 20th .
It ’ s highly significant that Arizona went blue in 2020 .
Senator Barry Goldwater of Arizona opposed the Civil Rights Act of 1964 and birthed the modern conservative @ @ @ @ @ @ @ year .
For four decades , Arizona ’ s conservatism was personified by John McCain who held office in Arizona and Washington from 1983 until he died in 2018 .
Yet , the state not only chose Biden-Harris over Trump-Pence , with the election of Democrat Mark Kelly to McCain ’ s Senate seat , it now has two Democratic senators for the first time since the 1950s .
In this respect , it resembles Colorado , Virginia , and Nevada , all of which have voted Democratic in the last four presidential @ @ @ @ @ @ @ represented by two Democratic senators .
Virginia , which Biden carried by 10 points , and Colorado , which Biden carried by 13.5 points , are no longer particularly competitive at the presidential level .
But Nevada is a different matter .
Barack Obama carried it easily in 2008 , by a margin of 121,000 votes , and more narrowly in 2012 by 68,000 .
In 2016 , Hillary Clinton squeaked by with a mere 27,000 , and Biden improved on that slightly with a 35,000 vote margin .
It will matter greatly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , or marches off into safe-blue territory like Virginia and Colorado .
One important factor in determining this is whether or not the Democratic and Republican parties continue to diverge based on educational attainment .
According to U.S. News & World Report ’ s 2020 rankings , Nevada ranks 48th in K-12 education , based primarily on test scores and graduation rates .
Arizona ranks 44th , while Virginia ranks 8th and Colorado comes in fourteenth .
On the other hand , all three states rank in the top half in higher education @ @ @ @ @ @ @ seems to be the most meaningful predictor of political behavior .
Education isn ’ t everything , however .
Despite being 49th overall and dead last in the U.S. News K-12 rankings , New Mexico rejected Trump by eight points in 2016 and 10.5 points in 2020 .
The difference in the Land of Enchantment may come down to racial demographics .
At 49 percent , it has a much larger Latinx population than Arizona ( 31 percent ) or Nevada ( 28 percent ) .
New Mexico also has the largest Native @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , in the United States .
On the flip side are North and South Dakota , both of which have Latinx populations under four percent and which , as recently as 2004 , were represented by four Democrats in the Senate .
Today , both governorships and all four Senate seats are held by Republicans , and it ’ s difficult to envision any Democrat winning a statewide election there anytime soon .
The booming natural gas industry in the Dakotas has damaged the Democratic Party ’ s brand because legislation to address @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to jobs .
Similarly , there could be issue-driven reasons why Arizona stays put as a purple state , moves back to the right , or continues its path to the left .
That might be the best hope for the Republicans because , with the growth of the professional class in the suburbs and the growing Latinx population , demographics suggest a continued blue drift .
Of course , Trump will leave the stage soon .
His politics , particularly his long-running feud with McCain , whose wife Cindy endorsed Biden , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s short-term political movement .
His feud with Mormon political figures such as former Sen. Jeff Flake probably hurt .
too .
Flake declined to run for another term rather than face Trump-loyal voters in the Republican primary .
If Trump runs again in 2024 , the Arizona GOP won ’ t be able to put these problems fully behind them , so I ’ m guessing they ’ d prefer to see Trump pursue some non-political career once he leaves office .

Much to the consternation of the Trump campaign, the Fox News decision desk called Arizona for the Biden-Harris ticket on Election night. But it wasn’t until Thursday night, nine days later, that the rest of the networks followed suit. While the results are not certified, the margin of victory will almost surely be over 11,000 votes, reminiscent of the 10,704 by which Donald Trump carried Michigan in 2016.
This is only the second time since Harry Truman’s victory in 1948 that the Democrats have carried Arizona. In 1996, Bill Clinton won took it by 31,000 votes, but he was assisted by a strong performance by center-right Reform Party challenger H. Ross Perot who hurt Republican nominee Bob Dole by peeling off 112,000 votes. By Friday, Trump had won North Carolina and Biden had taken Georgia, although an audit must be completed by Wednesday, November 18 before final certification on the 20th.
It’s highly significant that Arizona went blue in 2020. Senator Barry Goldwater of Arizona opposed the Civil Rights Act of 1964 and birthed the modern conservative movement with his failed presidential campaign that year. For four decades, Arizona’s conservatism was personified by John McCain who held office in Arizona and Washington from 1983 until he died in 2018. Yet, the state not only chose Biden-Harris over Trump-Pence, with the election of Democrat Mark Kelly to McCain’s Senate seat, it now has two Democratic senators for the first time since the 1950s.
In this respect, it resembles Colorado, Virginia, and Nevada, all of which have voted Democratic in the last four presidential elections, all of which are now represented by two Democratic senators.
Virginia, which Biden carried by 10 points, and Colorado, which Biden carried by 13.5 points, are no longer particularly competitive at the presidential level. But Nevada is a different matter. Barack Obama carried it easily in 2008, by a margin of 121,000 votes, and more narrowly in 2012 by 68,000. In 2016, Hillary Clinton squeaked by with a mere 27,000, and Biden improved on that slightly with a 35,000 vote margin.
It will matter greatly whether Arizona remains competitive, like Nevada, or marches off into safe-blue territory like Virginia and Colorado.
One important factor in determining this is whether or not the Democratic and Republican parties continue to diverge based on educational attainment. According to U.S. News & World Report’s 2020 rankings, Nevada ranks 48th in K-12 education, based primarily on test scores and graduation rates. Arizona ranks 44th, while Virginia ranks 8th and Colorado comes in fourteenth. On the other hand, all three states rank in the top half in higher education, which, in the Trump Era seems to be the most meaningful predictor of political behavior.
Education isn’t everything, however. Despite being 49th overall and dead last in the U.S. News K-12 rankings, New Mexico rejected Trump by eight points in 2016 and 10.5 points in 2020. The difference in the Land of Enchantment may come down to racial demographics. At 49 percent, it has a much larger Latinx population than Arizona (31 percent) or Nevada (28 percent). New Mexico also has the largest Native American population by percentage, except Alaska, in the United States.
On the flip side are North and South Dakota, both of which have Latinx populations under four percent and which, as recently as 2004, were represented by four Democrats in the Senate. Today, both governorships and all four Senate seats are held by Republicans, and it’s difficult to envision any Democrat winning a statewide election there anytime soon. The booming natural gas industry in the Dakotas has damaged the Democratic Party’s brand because legislation to address climate change is seen as a threat to jobs.
Similarly, there could be issue-driven reasons why Arizona stays put as a purple state, moves back to the right, or continues its path to the left. That might be the best hope for the Republicans because, with the growth of the professional class in the suburbs and the growing Latinx population, demographics suggest a continued blue drift.
Of course, Trump will leave the stage soon. His politics, particularly his long-running feud with McCain, whose wife Cindy endorsed Biden, have been the biggest factors in Arizona’s short-term political movement. His feud with Mormon political figures such as former Sen. Jeff Flake probably hurt, too. Flake declined to run for another term rather than face Trump-loyal voters in the Republican primary. If Trump runs again in 2024, the Arizona GOP won’t be able to put these problems fully behind them, so I’m guessing they’d prefer to see Trump pursue some non-political career once he leaves office.


washingtonmonthly--2020-11-16--Trump’s Enablers Rush to Parler to Escape Fact Checkers

During Donald Trump ’ s presidency , the hardest-working journalists have been those who focus on fact-checking .
Keeping up with a president who averaged almost 50 false or misleading statements a day during the final weeks of the 2020 campaign has been challenging .
But all lies are not the same .
It ’ s one thing to lie about the size of a campaign rally and a different thing for the president to spread false information during a pandemic or undermine democracy with lies about a rigged election .
That is why , back in June , Twitter @ @ @ @ @ @ @ mail-in ballots as misinformation .
The president ’ s enablers ’ response was to cry “ censorship ” and go in search of social media platforms that allowed the spread of disinformation without any warning labels .
Waiting in the wings was Parler , which had been built as an alternative to Twitter and Facebook in 2018 by John Matze and Jared Thompson .
Financing for the venture came from Rebekah Mercer , who , along with her father , hedge fund billionaire Robert Mercer , has been a major donor to conservative @ @ @ @ @ @ @ June , Dan Bongino , a former Secret Service agent and author who made a name for himself trafficking in pro-Trump conspiracy theories , announced that he had taken an ownership stake in Parler , as has Jeffrey Wernick , bitcoin investor and advocate .
Following a spike in membership last June , Parler experienced a second wave of interest when Joe Biden was declared the winner of the 2020 election , and Twitter once again labeled the president ’ s obsessive tweets about voter fraud as misinformation .
Almost immediately , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ October to 2 million on November 8th , according to Matze .
Some of Parler ’ s most active users include Fox News host Sean Hannity , radio personality and attorney Mark Levin , far-right activist Laura Loomer , Senator Ted Cruz , and Congressman Devin Nunes .
Eric Trump and Donald Trump ’ s presidential campaign have accounts on the platform .
According to an ADL report released Thursday , members of the Proud Boys , QAnoners , anti-government extremists , and white supremacists all openly promote their views on Parler .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and other forms of bigotry are also easy to find , ” the ADL said .
Describing himself as a devotee of libertarians like Thomas Sowell and Ayn Rand , Matze suggests that on his social media platform , “ There are going to be no fact checkers .
You ’ re not going to be told what to think and what to say .
A police officer isn ’ t going to arrest you if you say the wrong opinion.
” That statement gets to the heart of the issue by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Right-wing author Candace Owens , a Parler supporter , recently did the same thing during a rant she posted on YouTube announcing that she was suing Facebook over their fact-checkers decision to delete a post of hers that spread disinformation about coronavirus .
She claimed that when the fact-checkers decide that they don ’ t want to hear your opinion , you ’ re censored .
The equation of facts and opinions is reminiscent of what Matthew Sheffield wrote about his exodus from right-wing news .
U.S. conservatives do not understand the purpose @ @ @ @ @ @ @ me as I saw that conservative-dominated media outlets were MUCH more biased than outlets run by liberals .
I eventually realized that most people who run right-dominated media outlets see it as their DUTY to be unfair and to favor Republicans because doing so would somehow counteract perceived liberal bias… I also discovered , as I rose through the right-wing media ranks , that most conservative media figures have no journalism training or desire to fact-check their own side .
I also saw so many people think that reporting of info negative to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it was true .
Right-wing media ’ s goal is to deny the existence of facts and convince their readers/viewers that everything boils down to partisan differences .
Therefore , when fact-checkers label something as false , Trump ’ s enablers assume it is an expression of liberal bias in an attempt to censor their opinions .
Social media sites like Parler exist to allow disinformation to flow freely , protected within an epistemic bubble .
In that world , the truth is meaningless .
As Peter Pomerantsev warned about Vladimir Putin ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the lie , the Kremlin intimidates others by showing that it is in control of defining ‘ reality.
’ This is why it ’ s so important for Moscow to do away with the truth .
If nothing is true , then anything is possible.
” In this country , if nothing is true , the loser of a presidential election can claim that it was rigged and prevent a peaceful transition of power .
While we grapple with what that means for our democracy , one thing you can count on is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be intimidated into ceding control of reality .
Fact-checkers are always welcome on these pages as a means of determining what is true .
While we share our opinions , we ground them in facts and are clear about the difference .
If that is something you value , please consider making a donation during our year-end fundraising drive .
Give whatever you can— $ 10 , $ 50 , $ 1,000—before December 31 , and your contribution will be matched , dollar for dollar , thanks to a generous challenge grant we @ @ @ @ @ @ @ organization dedicated to helping nonprofit news organizations like the Monthly .
As a nonprofit , we can ’ t do the work we do without your support .
Thank you !

During Donald Trump’s presidency, the hardest-working journalists have been those who focus on fact-checking. Keeping up with a president who averaged almost 50 false or misleading statements a day during the final weeks of the 2020 campaign has been challenging.
But all lies are not the same. It’s one thing to lie about the size of a campaign rally and a different thing for the president to spread false information during a pandemic or undermine democracy with lies about a rigged election. That is why, back in June, Twitter started labeling Trump’s lies about mail-in ballots as misinformation. The president’s enablers’ response was to cry “censorship” and go in search of social media platforms that allowed the spread of disinformation without any warning labels.
Waiting in the wings was Parler, which had been built as an alternative to Twitter and Facebook in 2018 by John Matze and Jared Thompson. Financing for the venture came from Rebekah Mercer, who, along with her father, hedge fund billionaire Robert Mercer, has been a major donor to conservative causes, including Breitbart News. In June, Dan Bongino, a former Secret Service agent and author who made a name for himself trafficking in pro-Trump conspiracy theories, announced that he had taken an ownership stake in Parler, as has Jeffrey Wernick, bitcoin investor and advocate.
Following a spike in membership last June, Parler experienced a second wave of interest when Joe Biden was declared the winner of the 2020 election, and Twitter once again labeled the president’s obsessive tweets about voter fraud as misinformation. Almost immediately, the Parler app went from 200,000 downloads in October to 2 million on November 8th, according to Matze.
Some of Parler’s most active users include Fox News host Sean Hannity, radio personality and attorney Mark Levin, far-right activist Laura Loomer, Senator Ted Cruz, and Congressman Devin Nunes. Eric Trump and Donald Trump’s presidential campaign have accounts on the platform. According to an ADL report released Thursday, members of the Proud Boys, QAnoners, anti-government extremists, and white supremacists all openly promote their views on Parler. “Holocaust denial, antisemitism, racism, and other forms of bigotry are also easy to find,” the ADL said.
Describing himself as a devotee of libertarians like Thomas Sowell and Ayn Rand, Matze suggests that on his social media platform, “There are going to be no fact checkers. You’re not going to be told what to think and what to say. A police officer isn’t going to arrest you if you say the wrong opinion.” That statement gets to the heart of the issue by claiming that fact-checkers are policing opinions. Right-wing author Candace Owens, a Parler supporter, recently did the same thing during a rant she posted on YouTube announcing that she was suing Facebook over their fact-checkers decision to delete a post of hers that spread disinformation about coronavirus. She claimed that when the fact-checkers decide that they don’t want to hear your opinion, you’re censored.
The equation of facts and opinions is reminiscent of what Matthew Sheffield wrote about his exodus from right-wing news.
U.S. conservatives do not understand the purpose of journalism. This became evident to me as I saw that conservative-dominated media outlets were MUCH more biased than outlets run by liberals. I eventually realized that most people who run right-dominated media outlets see it as their DUTY to be unfair and to favor Republicans because doing so would somehow counteract perceived liberal bias… I also discovered, as I rose through the right-wing media ranks, that most conservative media figures have no journalism training or desire to fact-check their own side. I also saw so many people think that reporting of info negative to GOP politicians was biased, even if it was true.
Right-wing media’s goal is to deny the existence of facts and convince their readers/viewers that everything boils down to partisan differences. Therefore, when fact-checkers label something as false, Trump’s enablers assume it is an expression of liberal bias in an attempt to censor their opinions. Social media sites like Parler exist to allow disinformation to flow freely, protected within an epistemic bubble.
In that world, the truth is meaningless. As Peter Pomerantsev warned about Vladimir Putin’s propaganda efforts: “insisting on the lie, the Kremlin intimidates others by showing that it is in control of defining ‘reality.’ This is why it’s so important for Moscow to do away with the truth. If nothing is true, then anything is possible.” In this country, if nothing is true, the loser of a presidential election can claim that it was rigged and prevent a peaceful transition of power.
While we grapple with what that means for our democracy, one thing you can count on is the Washington Monthly. We will not be intimidated into ceding control of reality. Fact-checkers are always welcome on these pages as a means of determining what is true. While we share our opinions, we ground them in facts and are clear about the difference.
If that is something you value, please consider making a donation during our year-end fundraising drive. Give whatever you can—$10, $50, $1,000—before December 31, and your contribution will be matched, dollar for dollar, thanks to a generous challenge grant we’ve received from NewsMatch, an organization dedicated to helping nonprofit news organizations like the Monthly. As a nonprofit, we can’t do the work we do without your support. Thank you!


washingtonmonthly--2020-11-16--How Trump’s Lawlessness Speeds the Pandemic

The Texas Tribune reports that deaths from COVID-19 are piling up in El Paso so fast that the morgue is calling in the National Guard to tend to the corpses .
In the meantime , minimum-security prisoners are being paid $ 2/hour to move dead bodies to the county ’ s eight ( soon to be ten ) makeshift mobile morgues .
Nationwide , the New York Times finds COVID cases are up 81 percent in the last 14 days , hospitalizations are up 44 percent , and deaths are up 38 percent .
Slowly but surely , the country @ @ @ @ @ @ @ into the lockdown mode we experienced in the Spring as they try to ward off a collapse of their states ’ health care systems .
But Donald Trump has so poisoned the national discourse that Republicans are openly defying public health restrictions .
In Oregon , Tootie Smith , the incoming chairwoman of the Clackamas Board of County Commissioners , announced on Facebook that “ My family will celebrate Thanksgiving dinner with as many family and friends as I can find .
Gov .
[ Kate ] Brown is WRONG to order otherwise.
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ social gatherings to six people , and “ violations are misdemeanors punishable by citation or arrest.
” Commissioner Smith doesn ’ t care , “ Well , I don ’ t know if there ’ s going to be a knock at the door , but I ’ m going to , in my very private home with my family , continue to celebrate this holiday and Christmas as well.
” In Michigan , Gov .
Gretchen Whitmer ’ s administration banned indoor dining , stopped in-person classes at high schools and colleges @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
White House coronavirus task force member , Dr. Scott Atlas , a radiologist whose COVID-19 views are embraced by the president but rejected by the overwhelming majority of public health officials , responded with a Tweet : “ The only way this stops is if people rise up .
You get what you accept .
# FreedomMatters # StepUp.
” Atlas ’ s comment was reminiscent of Trump ’ s call , back in May , for people to “ LIBERATE MICHIGAN ” from Whitmer ’ s previous COVID-19 lockdown .
In @ @ @ @ @ @ @ filed against 13 militia members who were plotting to follow that advice by kidnapping Whitmer and trying her for treason .
When Atlas received criticism for inciting violence , he followed up with a disingenuous Tweet : “ Hey .
I NEVER was talking at all about violence .
People vote , people peacefully protest .
NEVER would I endorse or incite violence .
NEVER !
!
” It ’ s not normal for elected officials and Executive Branch employees to encourage lawlessness .
Such incitement is particularly alarming when it ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ public ’ s health .
But a fish rots from the head , and Trump has convinced millions that it ’ s their patriotic duty to ignore expert medical advice .
Even worse , the president is insisting that the election was rigged .
On Sunday night , he tweeted : “ I WON THE ELECTION !
” despite a 306-232 loss in the Electoral College , His legal challenges have gone nowhere , and his lawyers just abandoned their effort to undercut the results in Pennsylvania based on the lie that Republican @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
COVID-19 lies mean untold unnecessary deaths .
That ’ s doubly tragic because good progress is being made on vaccines .
We may be able to get beyond this crisis next year .
Why not make some sacrifices in the short-term to save lives before we make it to that window ?
But the damage to our faith in our elections could be harder to overcome .
On January 20 , Trump will vacate the White House .
It appears he will do so grudgingly , without conceding the legitimacy of Joe @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of his followers were motivated to kidnap a governor over her public safety orders , what might they do in response to a “ stolen ” election ?
Our system depends on “ the consent of the governed ” to maintain law and order .
We need our citizens to accept the results of our elections .
If Trump won ’ t do this , neither will many of his followers .

The Texas Tribune reports that deaths from COVID-19 are piling up in El Paso so fast that the morgue is calling in the National Guard to tend to the corpses. In the meantime, minimum-security prisoners are being paid $2/hour to move dead bodies to the county’s eight (soon to be ten) makeshift mobile morgues. Nationwide, the New York Times finds COVID cases are up 81 percent in the last 14 days, hospitalizations are up 44 percent, and deaths are up 38 percent. Slowly but surely, the country’s governors are moving us back into the lockdown mode we experienced in the Spring as they try to ward off a collapse of their states’ health care systems. But Donald Trump has so poisoned the national discourse that Republicans are openly defying public health restrictions.
In Oregon, Tootie Smith, the incoming chairwoman of the Clackamas Board of County Commissioners, announced on Facebook that “My family will celebrate Thanksgiving dinner with as many family and friends as I can find. Gov. [Kate] Brown is WRONG to order otherwise.” The governor’s order limits social gatherings to six people, and “violations are misdemeanors punishable by citation or arrest.” Commissioner Smith doesn’t care, “Well, I don’t know if there’s going to be a knock at the door, but I’m going to, in my very private home with my family, continue to celebrate this holiday and Christmas as well.”
In Michigan, Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s administration banned indoor dining, stopped in-person classes at high schools and colleges, and suspended non-professional, organized sports. White House coronavirus task force member, Dr. Scott Atlas, a radiologist whose COVID-19 views are embraced by the president but rejected by the overwhelming majority of public health officials, responded with a Tweet: “The only way this stops is if people rise up. You get what you accept. #FreedomMatters #StepUp.”
Atlas’s comment was reminiscent of Trump’s call, back in May, for people to “LIBERATE MICHIGAN” from Whitmer’s previous COVID-19 lockdown. In October, a federal criminal complaint was filed against 13 militia members who were plotting to follow that advice by kidnapping Whitmer and trying her for treason. When Atlas received criticism for inciting violence, he followed up with a disingenuous Tweet: “Hey. I NEVER was talking at all about violence. People vote, people peacefully protest. NEVER would I endorse or incite violence. NEVER!!”
It’s not normal for elected officials and Executive Branch employees to encourage lawlessness. Such incitement is particularly alarming when it’s aimed at undercutting efforts to protect the public’s health. But a fish rots from the head, and Trump has convinced millions that it’s their patriotic duty to ignore expert medical advice.
Even worse, the president is insisting that the election was rigged. On Sunday night, he tweeted: “I WON THE ELECTION!” despite a 306-232 loss in the Electoral College, His legal challenges have gone nowhere, and his lawyers just abandoned their effort to undercut the results in Pennsylvania based on the lie that Republican observers were denied access to the count.
COVID-19 lies mean untold unnecessary deaths. That’s doubly tragic because good progress is being made on vaccines. We may be able to get beyond this crisis next year. Why not make some sacrifices in the short-term to save lives before we make it to that window?
But the damage to our faith in our elections could be harder to overcome. On January 20, Trump will vacate the White House. It appears he will do so grudgingly, without conceding the legitimacy of Joe Biden’s presidency. If some of his followers were motivated to kidnap a governor over her public safety orders, what might they do in response to a “stolen” election?
Our system depends on “the consent of the governed” to maintain law and order. We need our citizens to accept the results of our elections. If Trump won’t do this, neither will many of his followers.


Worthwhile Canadian Initiative

Like a lot of people stuck at home during the coronavirus pandemic , I ’ ve been having some work done on my house .
One of the things I ’ ve learned is that the price of building materials , especially lumber , is insane .
Indeed , some lengths and varieties of wood are simply unavailable , or you wait months to get them .
There are lots of reasons for this .
Wildfires in the West .
Lumber producers and middleman , who shrank inventories at the start of the pandemic thinking no one would want to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ decided to remodel their homes because what else were they going to do ?
But part of the problem is also that the Trump administration slapped tariffs onto Canadian lumber imports a couple of years ago .
This led to higher home prices even before the pandemic .
But it ’ s gotten way worse since .
Prices have literally doubled since the spring .
The National Association of Home Builders recently estimated that Canadian lumber tariffs increase the price of the average home by $ 16,000–hardly an unbiased source since builders want @ @ @ @ @ @ @ enough to get 100 lawmakers from both parties to send a letter to Trump , asking him to get rid of the tariffs .
That ’ s obviously not going to happen during Trump ’ s ranting last days in office .
But it makes me think that one of the first things Joe Biden should announce once he ’ s inaugurated , or even before , is that he ’ ll reverse Trump ’ s Canadian lumber tariffs .
He can do so by executive order–that ’ s how Trump imposed them @ @ @ @ @ @ @ world , I know .
But as we are all painfully aware , if Biden is facing a Republican-controlled senate , the prospect of him signing ambitious bills anytime soon is remote .
Even if the Democrats manage to win both the January runoffs in Georgia , the senate would only barely be in Democratic hands ( a 50-50 split with the vice president breaking ties ) .
And with a couple of vulnerable Democratic Senate incumbents facing the voters in 2022 , like Maggie Hassan of New Hampshire and Catherine Cortez Masto @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , sweeping , FDR-like legislation Biden ran on is also unlikely to pass .
The main way the president-elect will be able to advance his agenda is through executive actions like this .
Rolling back tariffs that jack up housing costs would be the kind of gesture that your Home Depot dad buying planks for his deck , or a young couple buying a first home , could appreciate .
It would literally be a way to “ get America building again ” by repudiating a specific policy of his predecessor .
Of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ good idea , why didn ’ t the Biden policy team think to announce something like this during the campaign ?
Best I can tell is that Biden has complicated views about trade deals and the one with Canada specifically .
He probably doesn ’ t want to unilaterally give up a potential bargaining chip he can use for a broader trade deal .
But given that the World Trade Organization ruled in August that the basic argument the U.S. government made to support the tariffs and has been making for many years–that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ merit , it may not be much of a chip to give up .
Biden also has to weigh that lumber production is a huge industry in blue states ( Oregon , Washington , California ) as well as ones turning purple ( Georgia , North Carolina ) .
In the weeks and months ahead , the Washington Monthly will have more to say about what the Biden administration can achieve through executive action .
If you think this kind of policy-focused journalism is important , there ’ s something you can do @ @ @ @ @ @ @ our year-end fundraising drive .
In fact , do it right now .
Give whatever you can— $ 10 , $ 50 , $ 1,000—before December 31 , and your contribution will be matched , dollar for dollar , thanks to a generous challenge grant we ’ ve received from NewsMatch , an organization dedicated to helping nonprofit news organizations like the Monthly .
As a nonprofit , we can ’ t do the work we do without your support .
( It also means your donation is tax-deductible . )
As a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ give $ 50 or more , you ’ ll receive a free one-year subscription to the print edition of the Washington Monthly .

Like a lot of people stuck at home during the coronavirus pandemic, I’ve been having some work done on my house. One of the things I’ve learned is that the price of building materials, especially lumber, is insane. Indeed, some lengths and varieties of wood are simply unavailable, or you wait months to get them.
There are lots of reasons for this. Wildfires in the West. Lumber producers and middleman, who shrank inventories at the start of the pandemic thinking no one would want to build, only to find that everyone decided to remodel their homes because what else were they going to do?
But part of the problem is also that the Trump administration slapped tariffs onto Canadian lumber imports a couple of years ago. This led to higher home prices even before the pandemic. But it’s gotten way worse since. Prices have literally doubled since the spring. The National Association of Home Builders recently estimated that Canadian lumber tariffs increase the price of the average home by $16,000–hardly an unbiased source since builders want lower-cost materials. Still, it was enough to get 100 lawmakers from both parties to send a letter to Trump, asking him to get rid of the tariffs.
That’s obviously not going to happen during Trump’s ranting last days in office. But it makes me think that one of the first things Joe Biden should announce once he’s inaugurated, or even before, is that he’ll reverse Trump’s Canadian lumber tariffs. He can do so by executive order–that’s how Trump imposed them.
Not the biggest deal in the world, I know. But as we are all painfully aware, if Biden is facing a Republican-controlled senate, the prospect of him signing ambitious bills anytime soon is remote. Even if the Democrats manage to win both the January runoffs in Georgia, the senate would only barely be in Democratic hands (a 50-50 split with the vice president breaking ties). And with a couple of vulnerable Democratic Senate incumbents facing the voters in 2022, like Maggie Hassan of New Hampshire and Catherine Cortez Masto of Nevada, the kind of big, sweeping, FDR-like legislation Biden ran on is also unlikely to pass.
The main way the president-elect will be able to advance his agenda is through executive actions like this. Rolling back tariffs that jack up housing costs would be the kind of gesture that your Home Depot dad buying planks for his deck, or a young couple buying a first home, could appreciate. It would literally be a way to “get America building again” by repudiating a specific policy of his predecessor.
Of course, if this is such a good idea, why didn’t the Biden policy team think to announce something like this during the campaign? Best I can tell is that Biden has complicated views about trade deals and the one with Canada specifically. He probably doesn’t want to unilaterally give up a potential bargaining chip he can use for a broader trade deal. But given that the World Trade Organization ruled in August that the basic argument the U.S. government made to support the tariffs and has been making for many years–that Canada unfairly subsidizes its lumber industry–is without merit, it may not be much of a chip to give up. Biden also has to weigh that lumber production is a huge industry in blue states (Oregon, Washington, California) as well as ones turning purple (Georgia, North Carolina).
In the weeks and months ahead, the Washington Monthly will have more to say about what the Biden administration can achieve through executive action. If you think this kind of policy-focused journalism is important, there’s something you can do to help: make a donation during our year-end fundraising drive. In fact, do it right now. Give whatever you can—$10, $50, $1,000—before December 31, and your contribution will be matched, dollar for dollar, thanks to a generous challenge grant we’ve received from NewsMatch, an organization dedicated to helping nonprofit news organizations like the Monthly. As a nonprofit, we can’t do the work we do without your support. (It also means your donation is tax-deductible.) As a token of our gratitude, if you give $50 or more, you’ll receive a free one-year subscription to the print edition of the Washington Monthly.


washingtonmonthly--2020-11-15--Spotify, Podcasts, and The War for Your Ears

On Tuesday , Spotify , the audio streaming behemoth , announced another acquisition .
It struck a deal to buy Megaphone , a podcast ad tech company that works with thousands of content publishers , including Disney and Spotify itself .
The $ 235 million purchase positions the Swedish company to become a dominant player in the podcast advertising business .
The deal with Megaphone is just the most recent example of Spotify ’ s aggressive expansion into podcasting through a rapid string of acquisitions .
In 2019 , it purchased the premiere podcast production network , Gimlet Media , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ specializes in true crime shows , and bought The Ringer , a media company focused on sports and pop culture .
It acquired Anchor , which makes podcast creation tools .
And it has cut a series of exclusive deals with top talent , including Joe Rogan and Michele Obama .
The company , in other words , is building a podcasting empire , operating as a podcast player , a one-stop-shop for making your own podcast , a top producer of original shows , and now , as a podcast advertising and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are part of a larger wave of corporate consolidation in the podcast industry , which has long maintained a low barrier to entry , welcomed experimentation , and run on an indie ethos .
As tech companies like Amazon and Spotify jockey to become leading podcast platforms , and other media companies , like SiriusXM and iHeartMedia , buy up downstream companies , a looming question is whether podcasting will remain a sustainable business for independent creators and journalists .
That ’ s why Spotify ’ s purchase of Megaphone—though less glam than @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Kim Kardashian West this June—is consequential .
Advertising is the primary source of revenue for many podcasts , so consolidation in that space has ramifications for how the whole industry makes money and who gets how much .
Podcast ad technology has traditionally been less sophisticated than advertising on the internet , where companies can target you with ads based on your sexual orientation , interest in K-pop , whether you ’ ve been visiting car rental websites , or any number of interests revealed by your devices .
Without the tracking infrastructure @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ads have traditionally been one-size-fits-all-listeners , often read by the hosts themselves , and slotted in before someone starts listening to a show .
That method doesn ’ t provide companies with the fine-grained data they ’ d like , such as how many people fast-forward through their ads , but market research suggests that podcast ads can be more effective than other forms of advertising .
This arrangement has also worked well for creators , who can charge high rates for their direct , intimate pitches to listeners .
( On a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ can cost more than Super Bowl ads on TV in recent years .
The Super Bowl , of course , has far more viewers than even wildly successful podcasts ) .
Megaphone offers a more advanced form of podcast advertising , which can aim ads at specific audiences .
It will be even more formidable when it ’ s combined with Spotify ’ s massive listener database , which includes details such as when exactly a listener tunes in , their music and podcast listening preferences , their precise location , and even @ @ @ @ @ @ @ their hand or in their pocket .
Megaphone ’ s technology will be combined with Spotify ’ s Streaming Ad Insertion technology , a novel tool that enables the company to insert ads into shows as a listener is streaming ( as opposed to inserting them when someone downloads a podcast , which could be days before they intend to hit play ) .
Spotify did not respond to a request for comment on this story .
The combination of the two companies ’ services will make podcast ads more like internet ads @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in real-time .
The deal will also make Spotify ’ s Streaming Ad Insertion technology available to the thousands of podcast publishers on Megaphone .
Megaphone hosts more than 5,500 shows , and Spotify is home to 320 million monthly listeners , according to The Verge .
If that combination of scale , as well as Spotify ’ s ability to offer more detailed data , draws advertisers to spend their money via Spotify , it could make the platform unavoidable for content creators .
But there ’ s another reason this deal @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in digital advertising that hurt newspapers and magazines .
Media outlets were once , of course , the way to reach large , captive audiences , so that ’ s where companies bought ads , underwriting quality journalism in the process .
Then Google branched out from the search engine business and got into digital advertising .
It bought up companies such as DoubleClick and AdMob and leveraged the personal data it was vacuuming up across its properties , like Gmail , YouTube , and others , to offer brands the ability to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ now Facebook , have , notoriously , become the dominant forces in digital advertising , capturing 88 percent of the market ’ s growth from 2018 to 2019 .
That growth has come at the cost of advertising revenue for journalistic outlets , which have shed jobs at an alarming rate in recent years .
With its purchase of Megaphone , Spotify is “ really reading the Google playbook , ” says Daniel Hanley , a policy analyst for Open Markets Institute , a research and advocacy group focused on antitrust .
“ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
It ’ s kind of crazy.
” Much as consolidation in digital advertising hurt journalistic outlets , there ’ s concern that targeted advertising in podcasting , concentrated in the hands of a few companies , could have a similar effect on podcast creators .
Spotify , for its part , claims the deal will help , not hurt , podcasters .
“ With this acquisition , ” the company said in a statement , “ we ’ re helping podcast publishers earn more from their work—while also helping advertisers connect with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ true .
Spotify ’ s technology could be a boon to your microbrewing podcast or your crafting talk show , for now .
But as a streaming platform and mobile app , Spotify has far more personal data on users than its ad tech competitors could ever have—that is until Google and Amazon get into the business .
The next podcast-obsessed Texas Tech grad who launches a podcast ad tech company might be crushed by Spotify ’ s data advantage .
And if the platform is able to crush its competitors—or even just @ @ @ @ @ @ @ players—podcasters could see a decreasing share of the spoils of each ad sale .
That concern may seem several steps ahead of the ball , but then again , few predicted that Google would morph from a search engine company into a digital ad giant when it bought its first ad tech company .
Before the Megaphone deal is complete , Spotify will likely have to get the Federal Trade Commission ’ s approval .
That probably won ’ t be a high hurdle .
In rare cases where the FTC has concerns @ @ @ @ @ @ @ commission might ask the two companies for more documents to get a better sense of the industry , holding up the sale ’ s approval .
If further examination convinces the FTC that the acquisition is anticompetitive—an incredibly unlikely outcome—the panel could tell Spotify it must sell off part of its business in order for this deal to go through , or it could take the company to court to prevent the purchase altogether .
Antitrust enforcement isn ’ t as vigorous as it used to be .
Forty years ago , before @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was that agencies shouldn ’ t wait to take action until an industry becomes highly consolidated , they should actively try and maintain markets with vigorous competition .
In the 1960s , for example , the Supreme Court blocked a merger between two grocery store chains in Southern California because combined , they ’ d have had a market share of about eight percent in the Los Angeles area .
That precedent has largely been ignored since the early 1980s but never overruled .
During his first term , Joe Biden will have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ power at the FTC by appointing another commissioner .
( Currently , the agency has three Republican-appointed commissioners and two appointed by Democrats .
Biden will be able to flip that ratio , with three Democratic appointees ) .
The Democrat-appointed commissioners currently seated have been calling for more active antitrust enforcement .
Spotify is not the only company to look for gold in podcast advertising and publisher-side analytics .
SiriusXM bought SimpleCast , a podcast management and analytics company ; snapped up AdsWizz , a podcast ad tech company , via its @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , a podcast ad tech company , via its purchase of Stitcher .
iHeartMedia bought VoxNest , a company that offers podcast analytics and programmatic ad tools .
Acquisitions by these players happen against a backdrop of moves by even larger titans .
Amazon , for example , is fashioning its audiobook company , Audible , into a podcasting network .
It ’ s also turning its Spotify-like streaming service , Amazon Music , into a purveyor of podcasts linked up to its popular line of smart speakers .
Apple , whose product @ @ @ @ @ @ @ portmanteau of iPod and broadcast—in the first place , is also a major player .
It not only has its Podcasts app pre-downloaded on millions of iPhones , but it also purchased a podcast recommendation software company , Scout FM , in September .
Since it ’ s already making feature films and series through AppleTV , the world ’ s most highly valued company is bound to end up producing its own podcasts , as well as owning the platform and hardware on which they play .
“ We ’ re witnessing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that ’ s open and accessible , ” says Hanley .
We ’ re “ really seeing it consolidated into the hands of just a few players .
”

On Tuesday, Spotify, the audio streaming behemoth, announced another acquisition. It struck a deal to buy Megaphone, a podcast ad tech company that works with thousands of content publishers, including Disney and Spotify itself. The $235 million purchase positions the Swedish company to become a dominant player in the podcast advertising business.
The deal with Megaphone is just the most recent example of Spotify’s aggressive expansion into podcasting through a rapid string of acquisitions. In 2019, it purchased the premiere podcast production network, Gimlet Media, and later snapped up Parcast, which specializes in true crime shows, and bought The Ringer, a media company focused on sports and pop culture. It acquired Anchor, which makes podcast creation tools. And it has cut a series of exclusive deals with top talent, including Joe Rogan and Michele Obama. The company, in other words, is building a podcasting empire, operating as a podcast player, a one-stop-shop for making your own podcast, a top producer of original shows, and now, as a podcast advertising and hosting company.
Spotify’s acquisitions are part of a larger wave of corporate consolidation in the podcast industry, which has long maintained a low barrier to entry, welcomed experimentation, and run on an indie ethos. As tech companies like Amazon and Spotify jockey to become leading podcast platforms, and other media companies, like SiriusXM and iHeartMedia, buy up downstream companies, a looming question is whether podcasting will remain a sustainable business for independent creators and journalists.
That’s why Spotify’s purchase of Megaphone—though less glam than, say, its podcast deal with Kim Kardashian West this June—is consequential. Advertising is the primary source of revenue for many podcasts, so consolidation in that space has ramifications for how the whole industry makes money and who gets how much.
Podcast ad technology has traditionally been less sophisticated than advertising on the internet, where companies can target you with ads based on your sexual orientation, interest in K-pop, whether you’ve been visiting car rental websites, or any number of interests revealed by your devices. Without the tracking infrastructure companies like Google and Facebook, podcasts ads have traditionally been one-size-fits-all-listeners, often read by the hosts themselves, and slotted in before someone starts listening to a show. That method doesn’t provide companies with the fine-grained data they’d like, such as how many people fast-forward through their ads, but market research suggests that podcast ads can be more effective than other forms of advertising. This arrangement has also worked well for creators, who can charge high rates for their direct, intimate pitches to listeners. (On a per-listener basis, ads on top podcasts can cost more than Super Bowl ads on TV in recent years. The Super Bowl, of course, has far more viewers than even wildly successful podcasts).
Megaphone offers a more advanced form of podcast advertising, which can aim ads at specific audiences. It will be even more formidable when it’s combined with Spotify’s massive listener database, which includes details such as when exactly a listener tunes in, their music and podcast listening preferences, their precise location, and even whether someone’s phone is in their hand or in their pocket. Megaphone’s technology will be combined with Spotify’s Streaming Ad Insertion technology, a novel tool that enables the company to insert ads into shows as a listener is streaming (as opposed to inserting them when someone downloads a podcast, which could be days before they intend to hit play). Spotify did not respond to a request for comment on this story.
The combination of the two companies’ services will make podcast ads more like internet ads: personalized to the listener, placed in real-time. The deal will also make Spotify’s Streaming Ad Insertion technology available to the thousands of podcast publishers on Megaphone. Megaphone hosts more than 5,500 shows, and Spotify is home to 320 million monthly listeners, according to The Verge. If that combination of scale, as well as Spotify’s ability to offer more detailed data, draws advertisers to spend their money via Spotify, it could make the platform unavoidable for content creators.
But there’s another reason this deal is important: It echoes a trend in digital advertising that hurt newspapers and magazines. Media outlets were once, of course, the way to reach large, captive audiences, so that’s where companies bought ads, underwriting quality journalism in the process. Then Google branched out from the search engine business and got into digital advertising. It bought up companies such as DoubleClick and AdMob and leveraged the personal data it was vacuuming up across its properties, like Gmail, YouTube, and others, to offer brands the ability to microtarget their ads. Google, and now Facebook, have, notoriously, become the dominant forces in digital advertising, capturing 88 percent of the market’s growth from 2018 to 2019. That growth has come at the cost of advertising revenue for journalistic outlets, which have shed jobs at an alarming rate in recent years.
With its purchase of Megaphone, Spotify is “really reading the Google playbook,” says Daniel Hanley, a policy analyst for Open Markets Institute, a research and advocacy group focused on antitrust. “It’s almost word for word. It’s kind of crazy.”
Much as consolidation in digital advertising hurt journalistic outlets, there’s concern that targeted advertising in podcasting, concentrated in the hands of a few companies, could have a similar effect on podcast creators. Spotify, for its part, claims the deal will help, not hurt, podcasters. “With this acquisition,” the company said in a statement, “we’re helping podcast publishers earn more from their work—while also helping advertisers connect with engaged podcast audiences.”
That may be true. Spotify’s technology could be a boon to your microbrewing podcast or your crafting talk show, for now. But as a streaming platform and mobile app, Spotify has far more personal data on users than its ad tech competitors could ever have—that is until Google and Amazon get into the business. The next podcast-obsessed Texas Tech grad who launches a podcast ad tech company might be crushed by Spotify’s data advantage. And if the platform is able to crush its competitors—or even just shrink the market to a few big players—podcasters could see a decreasing share of the spoils of each ad sale. That concern may seem several steps ahead of the ball, but then again, few predicted that Google would morph from a search engine company into a digital ad giant when it bought its first ad tech company.
Before the Megaphone deal is complete, Spotify will likely have to get the Federal Trade Commission’s approval. That probably won’t be a high hurdle. In rare cases where the FTC has concerns about a deal being anticompetitive, the commission might ask the two companies for more documents to get a better sense of the industry, holding up the sale’s approval. If further examination convinces the FTC that the acquisition is anticompetitive—an incredibly unlikely outcome—the panel could tell Spotify it must sell off part of its business in order for this deal to go through, or it could take the company to court to prevent the purchase altogether.
Antitrust enforcement isn’t as vigorous as it used to be. Forty years ago, before the Reagan era began, the thinking was that agencies shouldn’t wait to take action until an industry becomes highly consolidated, they should actively try and maintain markets with vigorous competition. In the 1960s, for example, the Supreme Court blocked a merger between two grocery store chains in Southern California because combined, they’d have had a market share of about eight percent in the Los Angeles area. That precedent has largely been ignored since the early 1980s but never overruled.
During his first term, Joe Biden will have a chance to change the balance of power at the FTC by appointing another commissioner. (Currently, the agency has three Republican-appointed commissioners and two appointed by Democrats. Biden will be able to flip that ratio, with three Democratic appointees). The Democrat-appointed commissioners currently seated have been calling for more active antitrust enforcement.
Spotify is not the only company to look for gold in podcast advertising and publisher-side analytics. SiriusXM bought SimpleCast, a podcast management and analytics company; snapped up AdsWizz, a podcast ad tech company, via its purchase of Pandora; and acquired Midroll, a podcast ad tech company, via its purchase of Stitcher. iHeartMedia bought VoxNest, a company that offers podcast analytics and programmatic ad tools.
Acquisitions by these players happen against a backdrop of moves by even larger titans. Amazon, for example, is fashioning its audiobook company, Audible, into a podcasting network. It’s also turning its Spotify-like streaming service, Amazon Music, into a purveyor of podcasts linked up to its popular line of smart speakers. Apple, whose product begat the term “podcast”—a portmanteau of iPod and broadcast—in the first place, is also a major player. It not only has its Podcasts app pre-downloaded on millions of iPhones, but it also purchased a podcast recommendation software company, Scout FM, in September. Since it’s already making feature films and series through AppleTV, the world’s most highly valued company is bound to end up producing its own podcasts, as well as owning the platform and hardware on which they play.
“We’re witnessing the foreclosure of this really dynamic industry that’s open and accessible,” says Hanley. We’re “really seeing it consolidated into the hands of just a few players.”