washingtonmonthly--2020-11-08--Biden Won Big, But His Approach May Have Cost Democrats Downballot

Democrats celebrated around the nation yesterday at Biden ’ s landslide victory and Trump ’ s defeat .
And well they should .
Biden not only won , but won resoundingly .
The Biden-Harris ticket is currently leading Trump-Pence by over 4.25 million votes .
By the time all the votes are tallied across the nation , that figure will likely rise to over 5 million–a historic landslide .
Biden ’ s electoral college margin will likely be a comfortable 306-232 .
But the picture was not nearly so rosy for Democrats downballot .
Millions of voters who cast their @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at the top of the ticket remained comfortable with supporting Republican senators , representatives and state legislators farther down the ballot .
Democrats are poised to lose between seven and eleven seats in the House , failed to gain needed ground in the Senate and were unable to overturn Repubilican majorities in any state legislatures .
Crucial control of the Senate will come down to two run-off elections in Georgia ; even if Democrats were to win both , the chamber would hang on a 50-50 precipice .
The result is all the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , based on both public and internal polling on both sides , to expand House majorities , gain a solid Senate majority and pick up several state legislatures .
Recriminations have predictably begun between the left and centrist factions of the party .
On an internal caucus call for House Democrats , moderate members like Abigail Spanberger ( D-VA ) lashed out at the progressive wing of the party for supposedly costing them seats : On the flip side , progressives noted the successes of multiple progressive candidates in purple districts like Katie @ @ @ @ @ @ @ All while winning by more comfortable margins than many of their more cautious colleagues .
As Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez ( D-NY ) noted in a wide-ranging interview at the New York Times : But we also learned that progressive policies do not hurt candidates .
Every single candidate that co-sponsored Medicare for All in a swing district kept their seat .
We also know that co-sponsoring the Green New Deal was not a sinker .
Mike Levin was an original co-sponsor of the legislation , and he kept his seat… I ’ ve been @ @ @ @ @ @ @ them for two years .
That ’ s also the damn thing of it .
I ’ ve been trying to help .
Before the election , I offered to help every single swing district Democrat with their operation .
And every single one of them , but five , refused my help .
And all five of the vulnerable or swing district people that I helped secured victory or are on a path to secure victory .
And every single one that rejected my help is losing .
And now they ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ So I need my colleagues to understand that we are not the enemy .
And that their base is not the enemy .
That the Movement for Black Lives is not the enemy , that Medicare for all is not the enemy .
This isn ’ t even just about winning an argument .
It ’ s that if they keep going after the wrong thing , I mean , they ’ re just setting up their own obsolescence .
Democrats will spend the next months and years grappling with this debate , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to both sides .
It ’ s too early to know for certain , but anecdotal and exit poll data suggests that the word “ socialism ” and “ defund the police ” rhetoric may well have been detrimental to Democrats downballot .
But some early evidence also suggests that Medicare for All and the Green New Deal did no damage , and may well have helped many candidates who supported those policies .
There is also ample evidence for Ocasio-Cortez ’ tactical points about the value of online and social media organizing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ remains that ideological and strategic differences seemed to make very little difference in outcomes for downballot Democrats .
Sara Gideon and Theresa Greenfield didn ’ t suffer huge and unexpected losses in Maine and Iowa because they were strident leftists ( they aren ’ t ) , nor does it seem likely that running on a more leftist platform would have helped .
Ideology seemed to make little difference in outcomes .
Biden won , but Democrats downballot lost .
If anything , Biden had negative coattails .
Unfortunately , Biden ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with that .
The central theme of Biden ’ s campaign and of the Democratic National Convention was that Donald Trump is a uniquely malignant figure , that many Republican legislators would be happy to be rid of him to work with Democrats , that Biden himself is uniquely situated to work across the aisle with the opposition , and that Democrats need to come together with Republicans to compromise to solve problems .
Whether made out of conviction or political convenience , that message is explicitly tailored to give conservative-leaning voters permission @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the ticket , but to keep voting for Republicans down the ballot .
Which appears to be exactly what happened .
It ’ s impossible to know whether a more explicitly partisan campaign would have succeeded in delivering more victories for Democrats below the presidential ticket , or whether it would have cost Democrats the White House in addition to the lower chambers .
It ’ s also hard to know what impact Trump ’ s not being on the ballot will have in future contests .
It could simply be that Trump @ @ @ @ @ @ @ numbers of conservative voters to the polls than would show up for a more normal Republican–or even a less convincing emulator of Trumpism .
And , of course , it ’ s important to remember that this entire problem is the result of an apartheid electoral system that gives undue strength to overrepresented conservative voters due to Senate and Electoral College representation as well as gerrymandered House and legislative districts .
Biden won big , Senate Democrats represent 20 million more voters than Republicans , and House Democrats retain a majority despite district @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s not so much that any strategy failed nationally than that the system is broken , delivering unearned localized victories to conservatives who increasingly lack majoritarian national support .
Either way , though , until that system is fixed , if Democrats want to actually govern they will have to find a way to campaign successfully up and down the ballot .
Not just on their fundamental decency and their ability to work with opponents , but on the superiority of their aspirational policy agenda .
If not , we are likely @ @ @ @ @ @ @ one .

Democrats celebrated around the nation yesterday at Biden’s landslide victory and Trump’s defeat. And well they should. Biden not only won, but won resoundingly. The Biden-Harris ticket is currently leading Trump-Pence by over 4.25 million votes. By the time all the votes are tallied across the nation, that figure will likely rise to over 5 million–a historic landslide. Biden’s electoral college margin will likely be a comfortable 306-232.
But the picture was not nearly so rosy for Democrats downballot. Millions of voters who cast their votes for Joe Biden and Kamala Harris at the top of the ticket remained comfortable with supporting Republican senators, representatives and state legislators farther down the ballot.
Democrats are poised to lose between seven and eleven seats in the House, failed to gain needed ground in the Senate and were unable to overturn Repubilican majorities in any state legislatures. Crucial control of the Senate will come down to two run-off elections in Georgia; even if Democrats were to win both, the chamber would hang on a 50-50 precipice. The result is all the more disappointing for Democrats who were hoping, based on both public and internal polling on both sides, to expand House majorities, gain a solid Senate majority and pick up several state legislatures.
Recriminations have predictably begun between the left and centrist factions of the party. On an internal caucus call for House Democrats, moderate members like Abigail Spanberger (D-VA) lashed out at the progressive wing of the party for supposedly costing them seats:
Party leaders had expressed certainty that Trump’s divisiveness and mishandling of the pandemic would help them expand their majority with wins in GOP-held districts — and yet they lost at least a half-dozen seats and failed to retake the Senate. The explanation laid out by centrists, according to multiple people who were on the call and spoke on the condition of anonymity, is that Republicans were easily able to paint them all as socialists and radical leftists who endorse far-left positions such as defunding the police.
On the flip side, progressives noted the successes of multiple progressive candidates in purple districts like Katie Porter, who openly supported Medicare for All while winning by more comfortable margins than many of their more cautious colleagues. As Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) noted in a wide-ranging interview at the New York Times:
But we also learned that progressive policies do not hurt candidates. Every single candidate that co-sponsored Medicare for All in a swing district kept their seat. We also know that co-sponsoring the Green New Deal was not a sinker. Mike Levin was an original co-sponsor of the legislation, and he kept his seat… I’ve been begging the party to let me help them for two years. That’s also the damn thing of it. I’ve been trying to help. Before the election, I offered to help every single swing district Democrat with their operation. And every single one of them, but five, refused my help. And all five of the vulnerable or swing district people that I helped secured victory or are on a path to secure victory. And every single one that rejected my help is losing. And now they’re blaming us for their loss. So I need my colleagues to understand that we are not the enemy. And that their base is not the enemy. That the Movement for Black Lives is not the enemy, that Medicare for all is not the enemy. This isn’t even just about winning an argument. It’s that if they keep going after the wrong thing, I mean, they’re just setting up their own obsolescence.
Democrats will spend the next months and years grappling with this debate, and there is evidence for some truth to both sides.
It’s too early to know for certain, but anecdotal and exit poll data suggests that the word “socialism” and “defund the police” rhetoric may well have been detrimental to Democrats downballot. But some early evidence also suggests that Medicare for All and the Green New Deal did no damage, and may well have helped many candidates who supported those policies. There is also ample evidence for Ocasio-Cortez’ tactical points about the value of online and social media organizing over television advertising.
But the fact remains that ideological and strategic differences seemed to make very little difference in outcomes for downballot Democrats. Sara Gideon and Theresa Greenfield didn’t suffer huge and unexpected losses in Maine and Iowa because they were strident leftists (they aren’t), nor does it seem likely that running on a more leftist platform would have helped. Ideology seemed to make little difference in outcomes. Biden won, but Democrats downballot lost. If anything, Biden had negative coattails.
Unfortunately, Biden’s campaign may have a lot to do with that. The central theme of Biden’s campaign and of the Democratic National Convention was that Donald Trump is a uniquely malignant figure, that many Republican legislators would be happy to be rid of him to work with Democrats, that Biden himself is uniquely situated to work across the aisle with the opposition, and that Democrats need to come together with Republicans to compromise to solve problems.
Whether made out of conviction or political convenience, that message is explicitly tailored to give conservative-leaning voters permission to abandon Trump at the top of the ticket, but to keep voting for Republicans down the ballot. Which appears to be exactly what happened.
It’s impossible to know whether a more explicitly partisan campaign would have succeeded in delivering more victories for Democrats below the presidential ticket, or whether it would have cost Democrats the White House in addition to the lower chambers. It’s also hard to know what impact Trump’s not being on the ballot will have in future contests. It could simply be that Trump is uniquely successful in pulling much larger numbers of conservative voters to the polls than would show up for a more normal Republican–or even a less convincing emulator of Trumpism.
And, of course, it’s important to remember that this entire problem is the result of an apartheid electoral system that gives undue strength to overrepresented conservative voters due to Senate and Electoral College representation as well as gerrymandered House and legislative districts. Biden won big, Senate Democrats represent 20 million more voters than Republicans, and House Democrats retain a majority despite district lines being drawn against them. It’s not so much that any strategy failed nationally than that the system is broken, delivering unearned localized victories to conservatives who increasingly lack majoritarian national support.
Either way, though, until that system is fixed, if Democrats want to actually govern they will have to find a way to campaign successfully up and down the ballot. Not just on their fundamental decency and their ability to work with opponents, but on the superiority of their aspirational policy agenda. If not, we are likely to see many more results like this one.


washingtonmonthly--2020-11-07--Four Days that Shook the World

Four Days that Shook the World

Vowing to be “ a president who seeks not to divide but to unify , ” Joe Biden addressed the nation on Saturday night for the first time as President-elect and the winner of a bitter presidential contest that brought the four tumultuous years of Donald Trump ’ s presidency to a nail-biting end .
Jogging on to the stage at the Chase Center in Wilmington , Del .
to the rhythm of Bruce Springsteen , Biden declared his “ a convincing victory , ” thanked politicians in the crowd as if it were still a campaign rally , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , to the American people .
He also thanked his staff , the kind of hat-tip that a victorious candidate would give on election night–only this time it took four days .
The former vice president offered a particularly strong shout out to African-Americans , a vital constituency that saved his sagging campaign during the primaries and helped lift him to victory in the general election : “ You always had my back .
And I ’ ll always have yours.
” Biden repeated his unity theme– “ This is the time to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was part of his mandate .
He also vowed to strengthen the federal government ’ s response to the COVID-19 pandemic , announcing the first meeting of his own pandemic task force on Monday .
Vice-President Elect Kamala Harris spoke first at the outdoor “ car rally ” of about 360 vehicles .
The crowd exploded in cheers and honks as the first woman to be elected vice president took the stage ahead of Biden .
“ To the American people who make up our beautiful country , thank you for turning out @ @ @ @ @ @ @ heard , ” Harris said .
“ You chose hope , unity , science , and truth.
” Many elections are called historic , but this one unarguably is .
It is the first ouster of an incumbent president in 28 years and the end of a presidency that was the most divisive in the 20th or 21st century .
Biden , 77 , becomes the oldest person to assume the office and will be only the nation ’ s second Roman Catholic president , the first being John F. Kennedy 60 years @ @ @ @ @ @ @ become the first female vice-president and the first of African-American and Indian heritage .
Her parents were immigrants to the U.S. from Jamaica and India .
Biden ’ s victory was impressive by any measure .
He won at least 50 percent of the popular vote , a number comparable to Ronald Reagan in 1980 and higher than the vote won by Harry S. Truman , John F. Kennedy , and Bill Clinton during his two terms .
His final count of electoral votes is likely to be north of 300 .
In @ @ @ @ @ @ @ erupted in celebration , honking car horns and congregating to cheer the moment in parks and in homes and in iconic spots such as Lafayette Park in front of the White House and Times Square in New York City in scenes reminiscent of victory celebrations at the end of World War II .
Across the street from the National Cathedral in Washington , D.C. , the celebration continued for hours .
President Trump ’ s determination to fight the election results in the courts , which he repeated in a statement on Saturday @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fact is this election is far from over , ” the statement said while the normally loquacious president avoided the microphones .
( He was at his golf club in Sterling , Va. when the race was called for Biden . )
Lower courts and judges appointed by presidents and governors of both parties have swatted away the Trump campaign ’ s attempts to alter the count .
The president ’ s invocation of the Supreme Court as a lifeline to a second term ignores the justices ’ inability to issue a single @ @ @ @ @ @ @ making a repeat of the Court ’ s 2000 Bush v. Gore decision all but impossible .
Pennsylvania ’ s 20 electoral votes put the Democratic nominee over the top , according to the Associated Press , whose call Saturday morning opened the floodgates to other news organizations declaring Biden the winner .
The state was the most bitterly contested of the election , and its falling into the GOP column four years ago shocked Democrats , as did other Great Lakes states turning red .
It is also the birthplace and early @ @ @ @ @ @ @ visited there more than any other state .
AP also called Nevada for Biden .
No winner has been projected in Georgia , North Carolina , and Alaska .
When he assumes office Jan. 20 , Biden faces extraordinary challenges , most importantly taming and reversing the COVID-19 pandemic and bolstering an economy deeply wounded by it .
He is likely to have to do it with GOP control of the U.S. Senate .
No president has been elected in a crisis with such little congressional ballast .
Franklin Roosevelt and Barack Obama @ @ @ @ @ @ @ elected and faced the Great Depression and the Great Recession .
Democrats ’ slim hopes of wresting control of the Senate rest on two Georgia races that will be determined by run-off votes in January .
Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock are the two Democrats who hope to oust two incumbent senators , David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler .
Republicans were on track to pick up at least five seats in the House , putting an ax to the promising Congressional careers of several freshman Democrats elected in the 2018 blue wave and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Nancy Pelosi .
Without the Senate , Biden ’ s agenda could be on life support .
The Senate , likely controlled by Mitch McConnell , the GOP leader from Kentucky , puts the most ambitious dreams of liberal reform–an end to the filibuster , statehood for the District of Columbia , and new seats on the Supreme Court–in peril .
Biden ’ s progressive tax and spending plans seemed doomed .
Even if Democrats can claw their way to a 50-50 tie in the Senate–making Vice President Harris the tiebreaker–it would require @ @ @ @ @ @ @ exactly known for it .
The anxiety-producing presidential race showed that Americans remain deeply divided as they faced the starkest presidential race since Lyndon Johnson squared off against Barry Goldwater in 1964 .
Biden headed the most progressive Democratic ticket since then .
His party ’ s platform touts massive expenditures , like Green New Deal style-investments in alternative energy and a bold public option to bolster the Affordable Care Act , as well as cultural changes like the end of the Hyde Amendment—which prohibits federal funding for Medicaid-financed abortions ( Biden has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The Democratic Party ’ s platform doesn ’ t fulfill all of the wants of its ascendant left-wing .
Still , there ’ s enough there to keep them happy—for now .
By contrast , the GOP had no platform this year , reflecting the Republican Party ’ s subservience to the president .
The triangulation that Trump hinted at in 2016—echoing Democratic priorities like protecting Social Security , investing in roads and bridges—never materialized .
The Trump of 2020 pushed for an end to the payroll tax , which would end Social @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Infrastructure Week ” proved to be a mirage .
Trump proved to be a standard , donor-class Republican with an inhuman face .
His anti-immigrant fervor , disdain for defense alliances , and multilateral trade pacts were a patina on the traditional Republican faith in the trinity of tax cuts , conservative judges , and deregulation .
His violation of presidential norms from continuing to own his business to tweeting insults at all hours offended many .
It made Trump one of the most divisive figures in American history .
Trump ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ populations of white working-class voters .
That proved insufficient in a changing America where their percentage of the electorate continues to shrink .
Biden ’ s strength among suburban voters , minorities , women , and the college-educated gave him more than half the popular vote and at least 273 electoral votes and likely more .
Biden ’ s low-key , some called it lackadaisical , campaign proved wise .
One upside for Biden : it kept the focus on Trump , making the election a referendum on the president .
Biden was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Democratic nominee this cycle .
His 50-year tenure in electoral politics made him well known , and his eight-years as Barack Obama ’ s wingman transformed him from a Senate lifer into presidential timber .
But his age—he turns 78 this month—was always a looming burden , and his long history in the U.S. Senate is both a bragging right and an albatross .
When Biden was sworn into the Senate in 1973 , just days after his wife and daughter were killed in a car accident , the chamber had deep roots @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I veterans were still serving , as were multiple former segregationist Senators who chaired powerful committees , forcing him to work them and charm them alongside other young liberals .
Ted Kennedy , who came to the Senate in 1962 , ten years earlier , had the same work-with-segregationists history when he ran for president in 1980 .
Still , the Democratic Party of that year didn ’ t hold it against him , perhaps because he was a Kennedy .
Biden got no such break this year .
When Kamala Harris whacked @ @ @ @ @ @ @ desegregation , it smarted .
But Biden played the long game .
He didn ’ t jerk too far to the left during the primaries .
He didn ’ t embrace single-payer health care , even while he jettisoned pro-corporate stances on bankruptcy reform and antitrust that unsettled the many financial institutions that make Delaware home .
His long cultivation of Black voters—Delaware is the state with the ninth largest Black population , he often noted—and his unswerving loyalty to a younger Black president made him ripe for the endorsement of James Clyburn @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Democratic Whip used his Palmetto State machine and Black voters ’ ready enthusiasm to push Biden to a resounding victory over minority candidates like Cory Booker or the party ’ s left stalwarts , Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders .
The party gathered around Biden quickly ; endorsements from rivals such as Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar poured in .
The moment of Sanders ’ s inevitability proved very short , snatched by the Black voters in the state that launched the Civil War .
Warren faltered quickly , coming in third in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Republican party was unified from the start .
He never faced a serious primary challenge .
Those who put up a fight with the president like Republican Senators Bob Corker and Jeff Flake walked away rather than facing uphill battles in primaries dominated by MAGA devotees .
The president could have used his unified party to reset his unpopular presidency , returning to infrastructure or easing back on the constant Twitter invectives .
But he didn ’ t .
And that was before the pandemic .
Perhaps the gravest national crisis in 100 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ II and the Depression , COVID-19 could have been Trump ’ s lifeline .
But a negligent response sent the death toll higher than it should ever have been .
He turned mask-wearing into a political statement instead of a prophylactic .
His blathering made him seem more idiotic than Churchillian .
His continued self-indulgence amidst death—complaining about not getting a fair shake from Fox News of all places—made him seem , if not AWOL from the pandemic fight , then like he was cosseting the enemy .
Even his illness , which @ @ @ @ @ @ @ his campaign , was only a fleeting photo op .
Still , the fact that he remains an underdog with a chance is testimony to his grip on rural America , traditional Republicans , and white-working-class men .
In Harris , Biden found a running mate that matches their party perfectly .
The California senator represents the Democrats ’ diversity , with her Jamaican and Indian ancestry , Jewish husband , and Jewish stepchildren .
Hailing from the Bay Area , although now living in Brentwood , she ’ s pure West Coast @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ll be the first woman to occupy the vice-presidential mansion in Washington , D.C .
The first president or vice president since Warren Harding not to have had their own children .
( Biden will be the first widower to be elected since Woodrow Wilson . )
Her election is also representative of the electoral power of African-American women , the most loyal bloc in the Democratic coalition .
The evening ended with a fireworks display over the event on the banks of the Christina River .

Vowing to be “a president who seeks not to divide but to unify,” Joe Biden addressed the nation on Saturday night for the first time as President-elect and the winner of a bitter presidential contest that brought the four tumultuous years of Donald Trump’s presidency to a nail-biting end.
Jogging on to the stage at the Chase Center in Wilmington, Del. to the rhythm of Bruce Springsteen, Biden declared his “a convincing victory,” thanked politicians in the crowd as if it were still a campaign rally, and reintroduced his wife, Dr. Jill Biden, to the American people. He also thanked his staff, the kind of hat-tip that a victorious candidate would give on election night–only this time it took four days.
The former vice president offered a particularly strong shout out to African-Americans, a vital constituency that saved his sagging campaign during the primaries and helped lift him to victory in the general election: “You always had my back. And I’ll always have yours.”
Biden repeated his unity theme–“This is the time to heal,” he said–and said bipartisanship was part of his mandate. He also vowed to strengthen the federal government’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic, announcing the first meeting of his own pandemic task force on Monday.
Vice-President Elect Kamala Harris spoke first at the outdoor “car rally” of about 360 vehicles. The crowd exploded in cheers and honks as the first woman to be elected vice president took the stage ahead of Biden. “To the American people who make up our beautiful country, thank you for turning out in record numbers to make your voices heard,” Harris said. “You chose hope, unity, science, and truth.”
Many elections are called historic, but this one unarguably is. It is the first ouster of an incumbent president in 28 years and the end of a presidency that was the most divisive in the 20th or 21st century. Biden, 77, becomes the oldest person to assume the office and will be only the nation’s second Roman Catholic president, the first being John F. Kennedy 60 years ago. Harris, 56, will become the first female vice-president and the first of African-American and Indian heritage. Her parents were immigrants to the U.S. from Jamaica and India.
Biden’s victory was impressive by any measure. He won at least 50 percent of the popular vote, a number comparable to Ronald Reagan in 1980 and higher than the vote won by Harry S. Truman, John F. Kennedy, and Bill Clinton during his two terms. His final count of electoral votes is likely to be north of 300.
In American cities and towns, Biden-Harris supporters erupted in celebration, honking car horns and congregating to cheer the moment in parks and in homes and in iconic spots such as Lafayette Park in front of the White House and Times Square in New York City in scenes reminiscent of victory celebrations at the end of World War II. Across the street from the National Cathedral in Washington, D.C., the celebration continued for hours.
President Trump’s determination to fight the election results in the courts, which he repeated in a statement on Saturday, seems doomed. “The simple fact is this election is far from over,” the statement said while the normally loquacious president avoided the microphones. (He was at his golf club in Sterling, Va. when the race was called for Biden.) Lower courts and judges appointed by presidents and governors of both parties have swatted away the Trump campaign’s attempts to alter the count. The president’s invocation of the Supreme Court as a lifeline to a second term ignores the justices’ inability to issue a single ruling that would stop balloting nationwide, making a repeat of the Court’s 2000 Bush v. Gore decision all but impossible.
Pennsylvania’s 20 electoral votes put the Democratic nominee over the top, according to the Associated Press, whose call Saturday morning opened the floodgates to other news organizations declaring Biden the winner. The state was the most bitterly contested of the election, and its falling into the GOP column four years ago shocked Democrats, as did other Great Lakes states turning red. It is also the birthplace and early childhood home of President-elect Biden, who visited there more than any other state. AP also called Nevada for Biden. No winner has been projected in Georgia, North Carolina, and Alaska.
When he assumes office Jan. 20, Biden faces extraordinary challenges, most importantly taming and reversing the COVID-19 pandemic and bolstering an economy deeply wounded by it. He is likely to have to do it with GOP control of the U.S. Senate. No president has been elected in a crisis with such little congressional ballast. Franklin Roosevelt and Barack Obama had strong congressional majorities when they were elected and faced the Great Depression and the Great Recession.
Senate Woes
Democrats’ slim hopes of wresting control of the Senate rest on two Georgia races that will be determined by run-off votes in January. Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock are the two Democrats who hope to oust two incumbent senators, David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler.
Republicans were on track to pick up at least five seats in the House, putting an ax to the promising Congressional careers of several freshman Democrats elected in the 2018 blue wave and giving a gut punch to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.
Without the Senate, Biden’s agenda could be on life support. The Senate, likely controlled by Mitch McConnell, the GOP leader from Kentucky, puts the most ambitious dreams of liberal reform–an end to the filibuster, statehood for the District of Columbia, and new seats on the Supreme Court–in peril. Biden’s progressive tax and spending plans seemed doomed. Even if Democrats can claw their way to a 50-50 tie in the Senate–making Vice President Harris the tiebreaker–it would require lockstep unity in a Democratic party not exactly known for it.
Not Since LBJ
The anxiety-producing presidential race showed that Americans remain deeply divided as they faced the starkest presidential race since Lyndon Johnson squared off against Barry Goldwater in 1964. Biden headed the most progressive Democratic ticket since then. His party’s platform touts massive expenditures, like Green New Deal style-investments in alternative energy and a bold public option to bolster the Affordable Care Act, as well as cultural changes like the end of the Hyde Amendment—which prohibits federal funding for Medicaid-financed abortions (Biden has supported the latter since 1979). The Democratic Party’s platform doesn’t fulfill all of the wants of its ascendant left-wing. Still, there’s enough there to keep them happy—for now.
By contrast, the GOP had no platform this year, reflecting the Republican Party’s subservience to the president. The triangulation that Trump hinted at in 2016—echoing Democratic priorities like protecting Social Security, investing in roads and bridges—never materialized. The Trump of 2020 pushed for an end to the payroll tax, which would end Social Security. Famously and laughably, “Infrastructure Week” proved to be a mirage. Trump proved to be a standard, donor-class Republican with an inhuman face. His anti-immigrant fervor, disdain for defense alliances, and multilateral trade pacts were a patina on the traditional Republican faith in the trinity of tax cuts, conservative judges, and deregulation. His violation of presidential norms from continuing to own his business to tweeting insults at all hours offended many. It made Trump one of the most divisive figures in American history.
Trump’s coalition was paved with states with large populations of white working-class voters. That proved insufficient in a changing America where their percentage of the electorate continues to shrink. Biden’s strength among suburban voters, minorities, women, and the college-educated gave him more than half the popular vote and at least 273 electoral votes and likely more.
Biden’s low-key, some called it lackadaisical, campaign proved wise. One upside for Biden: it kept the focus on Trump, making the election a referendum on the president.
The Long Game
Biden was simultaneously the most likely and least likely Democratic nominee this cycle. His 50-year tenure in electoral politics made him well known, and his eight-years as Barack Obama’s wingman transformed him from a Senate lifer into presidential timber.
But his age—he turns 78 this month—was always a looming burden, and his long history in the U.S. Senate is both a bragging right and an albatross. When Biden was sworn into the Senate in 1973, just days after his wife and daughter were killed in a car accident, the chamber had deep roots in the past. Three World War I veterans were still serving, as were multiple former segregationist Senators who chaired powerful committees, forcing him to work them and charm them alongside other young liberals. Ted Kennedy, who came to the Senate in 1962, ten years earlier, had the same work-with-segregationists history when he ran for president in 1980. Still, the Democratic Party of that year didn’t hold it against him, perhaps because he was a Kennedy. Biden got no such break this year. When Kamala Harris whacked him on school busing to achieve racial desegregation, it smarted.
But Biden played the long game. He didn’t jerk too far to the left during the primaries. He didn’t embrace single-payer health care, even while he jettisoned pro-corporate stances on bankruptcy reform and antitrust that unsettled the many financial institutions that make Delaware home. His long cultivation of Black voters—Delaware is the state with the ninth largest Black population, he often noted—and his unswerving loyalty to a younger Black president made him ripe for the endorsement of James Clyburn in South Carolina. The powerful House Democratic Whip used his Palmetto State machine and Black voters’ ready enthusiasm to push Biden to a resounding victory over minority candidates like Cory Booker or the party’s left stalwarts, Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders. The party gathered around Biden quickly; endorsements from rivals such as Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar poured in. The moment of Sanders’s inevitability proved very short, snatched by the Black voters in the state that launched the Civil War. Warren faltered quickly, coming in third in her home state.
Trump’s Republican party was unified from the start. He never faced a serious primary challenge. Those who put up a fight with the president like Republican Senators Bob Corker and Jeff Flake walked away rather than facing uphill battles in primaries dominated by MAGA devotees. The president could have used his unified party to reset his unpopular presidency, returning to infrastructure or easing back on the constant Twitter invectives. But he didn’t.
Trump Blows His Chance For a Reset
And that was before the pandemic. Perhaps the gravest national crisis in 100 years or at least since World War II and the Depression, COVID-19 could have been Trump’s lifeline. But a negligent response sent the death toll higher than it should ever have been. He turned mask-wearing into a political statement instead of a prophylactic. His blathering made him seem more idiotic than Churchillian. His continued self-indulgence amidst death—complaining about not getting a fair shake from Fox News of all places—made him seem, if not AWOL from the pandemic fight, then like he was cosseting the enemy. Even his illness, which might have provided a moment to right his campaign, was only a fleeting photo op. Still, the fact that he remains an underdog with a chance is testimony to his grip on rural America, traditional Republicans, and white-working-class men.
In Harris, Biden found a running mate that matches their party perfectly. The California senator represents the Democrats’ diversity, with her Jamaican and Indian ancestry, Jewish husband, and Jewish stepchildren. Hailing from the Bay Area, although now living in Brentwood, she’s pure West Coast blue. If elected, she’ll be the first woman to occupy the vice-presidential mansion in Washington, D.C. The first president or vice president since Warren Harding not to have had their own children. (Biden will be the first widower to be elected since Woodrow Wilson.) Her election is also representative of the electoral power of African-American women, the most loyal bloc in the Democratic coalition.
The evening ended with a fireworks display over the event on the banks of the Christina River.


washingtonmonthly--2020-11-09--How the GSA Administrator is Holding Up the Biden Transition

Political scientist and resident American Enterprise Institute scholar Norm Ornstein warned in USA Today on Sunday that though our “ long national nightmare ” that is the Trump presidency “ is finally nearing an end… the brutal reality is ” that we need to “ get ready for another national nightmare now that Joe Biden is the president-elect.
” Specifically , Ornstein meant that we are entering the presidential transition , but this time , the incumbent is unwilling to concede defeat .
We shouldn ’ t expect a smooth ride .
The congressional scholar ’ s prediction began to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ outlets reported that General Services Administration Administrator Emily Murphy is refusing to sign a rather important piece of paper .
It ’ s called an “ ascertainment , ” and it ’ s little more than a semi-formal recognition that the challengers have won the election .
It ’ s unfair to expect GSA ’ s Murphy to recognize Joe Biden and Kamala Harris ’ s victory before Donald Trump and Mike Pence do so .
Still , her inaction has immediate and potentially immense consequences .
Without the ascertainment , the incoming @ @ @ @ @ @ @ plan and organize for taking the reins on January 20 .
As Ornstein explains , there are well-established norms about how a transition is supposed to unfold : America is unique among established democracies in many ways , among them the extraordinary length of time from an election to the actual transfer of power .
Parliamentary systems that have a change in administration make the change overnight .
We take 2 1/2 months .
That period leaves the losing president in charge , with all his powers , while the winning president-elect prepares @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , this is a complicated process , as the winner creates a large series of “ landing teams , ” groups of experts and former officials for each agency , department and office that interact with the existing government executives , career and appointed , to discuss policy history , take possession of key documents necessary to understand what the agency has done and why , and plan for a new agenda with a new team .
There are laws on presidential transitions that provide some protection for an incoming administration , including @ @ @ @ @ @ @ access to agencies .
But the ability to have a smooth and productive transition depends heavily on norms .
The Washington Post reports that the Trump administration has no intention of instructing Murphy to sign the ascertainment that would allow this process to begin .
By declaring the “ apparent winner ” of a presidential election , the GSA administrator releases computer systems and money for salaries and administrative support for the mammoth undertaking of setting up a new government — $ 9.9 million this year .
Transition officials get government email addresses @ @ @ @ @ @ @ federal agency .
They can begin to work with the Office of Government Ethics to process financial disclosure and conflict-of-interest forms for their nominees .
This isn ’ t the first controversy to attend to Murphy ’ s time as head of the GSA .
Congressional Democrats have been highly critical of how she ’ s handled two matters related to the Trump International Hotel in Washington , DC .
The first is related to the lease on the hotel , and the second to the long-planned relocation of FBI headquarters .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the Old Post Office Building , a government-owned building overseen by GSA and leased to the Trump Organization in 2013 .
In January 2019 , the GSA ’ s inspector general issued a 47-page report which found that the hotel lease should have been canceled once Trump became president .
By failing to take this action , the Inspector General wrote , GSA lawyers had ignored obvious constitutional concerns and legal precedents , chiefly concerning the Emoluments Clause and risk of foreign actors patronizing the hotel to curry favor with the administration @ @ @ @ @ @ @ congressional questioning about what standards apply to a possible sale of the lease , and whether or not the Trump Organization can sell it to a foreign power or entity .
In 2017 , the GSA abruptly canceled the relocation of FBI headquarters to Maryland , a plan that had been in the works for 12 years and already cost $ 20 million .
Suspicion immediately arose that Trump opposed the move because the vacated headquarters , located nearby the Trump International Hotel , would then be developed with new retail space and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ made with no advance notice to Congress .
The explanation about avoiding possible cost overruns made no sense , since rebuilding the headquarters at the same location was projected to be far more expensive and tremendously disruptive to the Bureau ’ s operations .
Yet , if Murphy has hardly been a stranger to scrutiny and criticism , she ’ s truly in the hot seat now .
The Biden administration can not truly get started until she signs that ascertainment , so she needs to decide if she ’ s more loyal @ @ @ @ @ @ @ she doesn ’ t feel she can do the right thing without authorization , she should resign .

Political scientist and resident American Enterprise Institute scholar Norm Ornstein warned in USA Today on Sunday that though our “long national nightmare” that is the Trump presidency “is finally nearing an end… the brutal reality is” that we need to “get ready for another national nightmare now that Joe Biden is the president-elect.”
Specifically, Ornstein meant that we are entering the presidential transition, but this time, the incumbent is unwilling to concede defeat. We shouldn’t expect a smooth ride. The congressional scholar’s prediction began to come true immediately, as numerous news outlets reported that General Services Administration Administrator Emily Murphy is refusing to sign a rather important piece of paper.
It’s called an “ascertainment,” and it’s little more than a semi-formal recognition that the challengers have won the election. It’s unfair to expect GSA’s Murphy to recognize Joe Biden and Kamala Harris’s victory before Donald Trump and Mike Pence do so. Still, her inaction has immediate and potentially immense consequences.
Without the ascertainment, the incoming administration is hamstrung in their ability to plan and organize for taking the reins on January 20. As Ornstein explains, there are well-established norms about how a transition is supposed to unfold:
America is unique among established democracies in many ways, among them the extraordinary length of time from an election to the actual transfer of power. Parliamentary systems that have a change in administration make the change overnight. We take 2 1/2 months. That period leaves the losing president in charge, with all his powers, while the winning president-elect prepares to take office. In modern times, this is a complicated process, as the winner creates a large series of “landing teams,” groups of experts and former officials for each agency, department and office that interact with the existing government executives, career and appointed, to discuss policy history, take possession of key documents necessary to understand what the agency has done and why, and plan for a new agenda with a new team. There are laws on presidential transitions that provide some protection for an incoming administration, including providing office space and support, and access to agencies. But the ability to have a smooth and productive transition depends heavily on norms.
The Washington Post reports that the Trump administration has no intention of instructing Murphy to sign the ascertainment that would allow this process to begin.
By declaring the “apparent winner” of a presidential election, the GSA administrator releases computer systems and money for salaries and administrative support for the mammoth undertaking of setting up a new government — $9.9 million this year. Transition officials get government email addresses. They get office space at every federal agency. They can begin to work with the Office of Government Ethics to process financial disclosure and conflict-of-interest forms for their nominees.
This isn’t the first controversy to attend to Murphy’s time as head of the GSA. Congressional Democrats have been highly critical of how she’s handled two matters related to the Trump International Hotel in Washington, DC. The first is related to the lease on the hotel, and the second to the long-planned relocation of FBI headquarters.
The Trump hotel is located on the site of the Old Post Office Building, a government-owned building overseen by GSA and leased to the Trump Organization in 2013. In January 2019, the GSA’s inspector general issued a 47-page report which found that the hotel lease should have been canceled once Trump became president. By failing to take this action, the Inspector General wrote, GSA lawyers had ignored obvious constitutional concerns and legal precedents, chiefly concerning the Emoluments Clause and risk of foreign actors patronizing the hotel to curry favor with the administration. More recently, Murphy faced tough congressional questioning about what standards apply to a possible sale of the lease, and whether or not the Trump Organization can sell it to a foreign power or entity.
In 2017, the GSA abruptly canceled the relocation of FBI headquarters to Maryland, a plan that had been in the works for 12 years and already cost $20 million. Suspicion immediately arose that Trump opposed the move because the vacated headquarters, located nearby the Trump International Hotel, would then be developed with new retail space and a competing hotel. The decision was made with no advance notice to Congress. The explanation about avoiding possible cost overruns made no sense, since rebuilding the headquarters at the same location was projected to be far more expensive and tremendously disruptive to the Bureau’s operations.
Yet, if Murphy has hardly been a stranger to scrutiny and criticism, she’s truly in the hot seat now. The Biden administration cannot truly get started until she signs that ascertainment, so she needs to decide if she’s more loyal to Trump or the country. If she doesn’t feel she can do the right thing without authorization, she should resign.


washingtonmonthly--2020-11-09--What’s Wrong With One-Term Presidents?

What’s Wrong With One-Term Presidents?

History will say that Donald Trump lost his re-election bid because he was a terrible president .
But I don ’ t think it will say—as many commentators have been saying since Joe Biden was declared the winner on November 7—that Trump ’ s failure to win re-election in itself constituted evidence that Trump was a terrible president .
That botches the causality , trivializes democracy , and misreads American history .
“ Presidents are rarely denied when they pursue a second term—it has happened four times in the last 100 years—which means , ” concluded Michael D ’ Antonio @ @ @ @ @ @ @ escape the label he hates most of all : loser.
” I won ’ t deny the pleasure in flinging that word—lewzah !
—at a president who took infantile pleasure in tossing it in every direction .
But to heap scorn on a president merely for failing to win re-election is to presume that two terms constitute some sort of entitlement , and that , barring extremely aberrational performance , the public bears some sort of obligation to re-up every Richard Nixon or George W. Bush who comes along .
Which can be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ amply demonstrate .
I find it jarring to see two-term presidencies described as the norm because throughout my childhood I never experienced one .
Dwight D. Eisenhower was the last president to serve out two full terms , but I was only 3 when he left office and don ’ t remember it .
The next time a president completed that feat , I was 31 .
John F. Kennedy was assassinated in his first term .
Lyndon Johnson was re-elected in a landslide after succeeding Kennedy but became so unpopular , thanks @ @ @ @ @ @ @ didn ’ t run a second time .
Richard Nixon won a second term but resigned during the second because of crimes committed during the first .
Gerald Ford , who succeeded Nixon , lost to Jimmy Carter , who lost to Ronald Reagan , who finally re-established the tradition of the two-term presidency , though on the evidence ( cognitive decline , Iran-contra ) he might have done better to quit while he was ahead in 1985 .
( I ’ ve never been persuaded Reagan did all that much to end @ @ @ @ @ @ @ first started working as a political journalist in 1980 the conventional wisdom wasn ’ t that presidents who failed to win re-election were losers .
It was that American politics had become so fractious that two-term presidencies were becoming an impossibility .
In retrospect , that may seem erroneous , because the mid-1970s are now remembered , rightly , as a golden era of bipartisanship in Congress .
But the horse-trading and we ’ re-all-friends-by-cocktail-hour chumminess that we miss so much today fueled , back then , a growing distrust of all politicians @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and Watergate and on the right from a belief that government was coddling criminals , draft-card-burning college students , drug addicts , and militant Blacks .
Democratic officeholders absorbed the blows from their own side , with , for instance , the New Republic eventually endorsing third-party candidate John Anderson for president .
Republican politicians , on the other hand , moved right to accommodate their angry fringe , eventually asserting that “ government is the problem , ” as Reagan said in his 1981 inauguration speech—a message that dovetailed with the growing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ grass roots ” movement bankrolled by reactionary billionaires .
A proposed solution much discussed around the time of Carter ’ s failed re-election bid was the six-year presidency .
You couldn ’ t be taken seriously as a good-government type if you didn ’ t give it serious consideration .
Even before Carter lost , his White House counsel Lloyd Cutler published a widely read piece in the fall 1980 Foreign Affairs about limiting presidencies to a single six-year term .
The Great Books evangelist Mortimer Adler supported it ( “ I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that the second term often turns out to be disastrous ” ) .
William F. Buckley supported it .
It was a terrible , anti-democratic idea , guaranteeing , among other things , that every president would enter office a lame duck .
But it seemed to many people the only way to create any continuity in public policy .
Here ’ s Carter chief of staff Jack Watson in an oral history : I ’ m not prepared at this moment to say categorically that we should have [ a six-year presidency @ @ @ @ @ @ @ force me to lay my bet now as to which was wiser , I would have to go with it .
It has become intrinsically so difficult for us to reelect somebody , given the nature of social , political , and other forces that are working right now , that the right process now would be to choose a person for a six-year term .
What the six-year votaries didn ’ t realize was that the crisis of the one-term presidency was already evaporating .
The next three decades saw only one @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fail to win re-election amid an alarmingly sluggish recovery from the 1990-1991 recession .
His son George W. Bush won re-election despite waging a very unpopular war in Iraq , and by the time Barack Obama came along even a sluggish economic recovery was no longer reason enough to deny an incumbent president re-election .
It ’ s hard to identify precisely which aspects of Trump ’ s presidency cost him the 2020 election because we don ’ t have good data from exit polls .
It ’ s tempting to blame Covid @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the pandemic , though it hurt him with suburban women , seems to have helped him with male voters who just want to pretend the crisis is over .
The election is starting to look as though it wasn ’ t as close as it first seemed , but it wasn ’ t a landslide , and Republicans probably kept the Senate .
The only honest assessment at the moment is that Trump ’ s visibly bad behavior in office alienated enough voters at the margin to cost him a second term .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Trump failed to win re-election because he was a bad president .
He isn ’ t a bad president because he failed to get re-elected .
If you look at history ’ s one-term presidents , yes , you ’ ll find lousy ones , starting with John Adams and ending with Herbert Hoover .
But you ’ ll also find presidents who deserve to be remembered in a more favorable light , like John Quincy Adams and William Howard Taft .
Moving into the modern era , you have one-and-a-half-termer Lyndon @ @ @ @ @ @ @ who was briefly a great president before he became a terrible one .
Poppy Bush and Jimmy Carter were never great presidents , but no sensible person would call them the two worst presidents of the past half-century .
( Before Trump , that honor was generally understood to reside with Richard Nixon and George W .
Bush . )
Ronald Reagan ’ s dubious reputation as a great president rests in large part on his being the first president since Eisenhower to win re-election , but as we ’ ve come to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ less impressive .
The truth is that the failure of an incumbent to win re-election is not the crippling social problem people that feared in the early 1980s nor the stain on personal honor that we judge it to be in 2020 .
We elect presidents , not kings .
We elect them to a single four-year term , and then we decide whether we want to keep them .
There may be any number of reasons not to keep them , of which being a terrible president is only one possibility .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ t renew Donald Trump ’ s lease , but a different president ( Hillary Clinton ? )
might have given us a less cartoonish reason .
Our new president , Biden , may decide in four years that he ’ s too old to run for re-election .
If he does , that won ’ t be a disgrace , and shouldn ’ t be interpreted as such .
It will just be a reason to go with somebody else .
Scorn the 45th president if you like , but don ’ t @ @ @ @ @ @ @ term that ought to be any minimally competent chief executive ’ s birthright .

History will say that Donald Trump lost his re-election bid because he was a terrible president. But I don’t think it will say—as many commentators have been saying since Joe Biden was declared the winner on November 7—that Trump’s failure to win re-election in itself constituted evidence that Trump was a terrible president. That botches the causality, trivializes democracy, and misreads American history.
“Presidents are rarely denied when they pursue a second term—it has happened four times in the last 100 years—which means,” concluded Michael D’Antonio on CNN, “Trump cannot escape the label he hates most of all: loser.” I won’t deny the pleasure in flinging that word—lewzah!—at a president who took infantile pleasure in tossing it in every direction. But to heap scorn on a president merely for failing to win re-election is to presume that two terms constitute some sort of entitlement, and that, barring extremely aberrational performance, the public bears some sort of obligation to re-up every Richard Nixon or George W. Bush who comes along. Which can be a problem, as these two examples amply demonstrate.
I find it jarring to see two-term presidencies described as the norm because throughout my childhood I never experienced one. Dwight D. Eisenhower was the last president to serve out two full terms, but I was only 3 when he left office and don’t remember it. The next time a president completed that feat, I was 31. John F. Kennedy was assassinated in his first term. Lyndon Johnson was re-elected in a landslide after succeeding Kennedy but became so unpopular, thanks to the Vietnam War, that he didn’t run a second time. Richard Nixon won a second term but resigned during the second because of crimes committed during the first. Gerald Ford, who succeeded Nixon, lost to Jimmy Carter, who lost to Ronald Reagan, who finally re-established the tradition of the two-term presidency, though on the evidence (cognitive decline, Iran-contra) he might have done better to quit while he was ahead in 1985. (I’ve never been persuaded Reagan did all that much to end the Cold War.)
When I first started working as a political journalist in 1980 the conventional wisdom wasn’t that presidents who failed to win re-election were losers. It was that American politics had become so fractious that two-term presidencies were becoming an impossibility. In retrospect, that may seem erroneous, because the mid-1970s are now remembered, rightly, as a golden era of bipartisanship in Congress. But the horse-trading and we’re-all-friends-by-cocktail-hour chumminess that we miss so much today fueled, back then, a growing distrust of all politicians, derived on the left from Vietnam and Watergate and on the right from a belief that government was coddling criminals, draft-card-burning college students, drug addicts, and militant Blacks. Democratic officeholders absorbed the blows from their own side, with, for instance, the New Republic eventually endorsing third-party candidate John Anderson for president. Republican politicians, on the other hand, moved right to accommodate their angry fringe, eventually asserting that “government is the problem,” as Reagan said in his 1981 inauguration speech—a message that dovetailed with the growing influence of the business lobby and a “grass roots” movement bankrolled by reactionary billionaires.
A proposed solution much discussed around the time of Carter’s failed re-election bid was the six-year presidency. You couldn’t be taken seriously as a good-government type if you didn’t give it serious consideration. Even before Carter lost, his White House counsel Lloyd Cutler published a widely read piece in the fall 1980 Foreign Affairs about limiting presidencies to a single six-year term. The Great Books evangelist Mortimer Adler supported it (“I think we have some reason to believe that the second term often turns out to be disastrous”). William F. Buckley supported it. It was a terrible, anti-democratic idea, guaranteeing, among other things, that every president would enter office a lame duck. But it seemed to many people the only way to create any continuity in public policy. Here’s Carter chief of staff Jack Watson in an oral history:
I’m not prepared at this moment to say categorically that we should have [a six-year presidency]. But if you were to force me to lay my bet now as to which was wiser, I would have to go with it. It has become intrinsically so difficult for us to reelect somebody, given the nature of social, political, and other forces that are working right now, that the right process now would be to choose a person for a six-year term.
What the six-year votaries didn’t realize was that the crisis of the one-term presidency was already evaporating. The next three decades saw only one president (George H.W. Bush) fail to win re-election amid an alarmingly sluggish recovery from the 1990-1991 recession. His son George W. Bush won re-election despite waging a very unpopular war in Iraq, and by the time Barack Obama came along even a sluggish economic recovery was no longer reason enough to deny an incumbent president re-election. It’s hard to identify precisely which aspects of Trump’s presidency cost him the 2020 election because we don’t have good data from exit polls. It’s tempting to blame Covid, but Trump’s mishandling of the pandemic, though it hurt him with suburban women, seems to have helped him with male voters who just want to pretend the crisis is over. The election is starting to look as though it wasn’t as close as it first seemed, but it wasn’t a landslide, and Republicans probably kept the Senate. The only honest assessment at the moment is that Trump’s visibly bad behavior in office alienated enough voters at the margin to cost him a second term.
But let’s get this right. Trump failed to win re-election because he was a bad president. He isn’t a bad president because he failed to get re-elected. If you look at history’s one-term presidents, yes, you’ll find lousy ones, starting with John Adams and ending with Herbert Hoover. But you’ll also find presidents who deserve to be remembered in a more favorable light, like John Quincy Adams and William Howard Taft. Moving into the modern era, you have one-and-a-half-termer Lyndon Johnson, the ultimate hard case, who was briefly a great president before he became a terrible one. Poppy Bush and Jimmy Carter were never great presidents, but no sensible person would call them the two worst presidents of the past half-century. (Before Trump, that honor was generally understood to reside with Richard Nixon and George W. Bush.) Ronald Reagan’s dubious reputation as a great president rests in large part on his being the first president since Eisenhower to win re-election, but as we’ve come to take re-election for granted that achievement seems less impressive.
The truth is that the failure of an incumbent to win re-election is not the crippling social problem people that feared in the early 1980s nor the stain on personal honor that we judge it to be in 2020. We elect presidents, not kings. We elect them to a single four-year term, and then we decide whether we want to keep them. There may be any number of reasons not to keep them, of which being a terrible president is only one possibility. Ghastliness is the reason Americans didn’t renew Donald Trump’s lease, but a different president (Hillary Clinton?) might have given us a less cartoonish reason. Our new president, Biden, may decide in four years that he’s too old to run for re-election. If he does, that won’t be a disgrace, and shouldn’t be interpreted as such. It will just be a reason to go with somebody else. Scorn the 45th president if you like, but don’t scorn him for not receiving the second term that ought to be any minimally competent chief executive’s birthright.


washingtonmonthly--2020-11-10--Kelly Loeffler’s Faux Populism

Kelly Loeffler’s Faux Populism

Matt Taibbi , the Rolling Stone journalist turned Substack entrepreneur , had an immediate post-election take on the 2020 presidential election : Donald Trump may have lost , but he provided the GOP a roadmap to become the working man ’ s party .
Citing both dubious exit polls and actual precinct data , Taibbi argued that Trump had overperformed with blacks , Latinos , and even the LGBTQ community , and he approvingly quoted a tweet by Republican Senator Josh Hawley of Missouri , saying , “ We are a working class party now .
That ’ s the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ solid analysis , Donald Trump ’ s legislative legacy wasn ’ t populist .
It was conventionally Republican .
Consider the provision in his 2017 tax bill that incentivizes investment-fund and family-office managers to buy private airplanes .
Accounting Today explains such aircraft , “ avoid both what originally would have been a capital gains tax bill on their carried interest , and what would have been ordinary taxes on their management fees.
” This provision was eagerly seized upon by former asset management executive , Republican Senator Kelly Loeffler of Georgia , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Bombardier Challenger 300 at an estimated cost of $ 10 million .
The aircraft became an issue in her primary against Trump ally and former Rep. Doug Collins , who attacked her as a moderate and idle rich .
The private jet exploit is a workaround to avoid new caps on deducting business losses , a section of Trump ’ s tax bill that the Joint Committee on Taxation laughably argued would generate $ 150 billion in revenue over the next ten years .
The reality is quite different , as people like @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a free plane in the bargain .
Collins ’ s attack on Loeffler didn ’ t work , of course .
He won only 20 percent of the vote in Georgia ’ s unique all-party primary .
Loeffler received 26 percent and qualified for a January 5 runoff election against Democrat Raphael Warnock , the pastor of Martin Luther King Jr. ’ s Ebenezer Baptist Church in Atlanta who came in first place with 33 percent .
There ’ s actually nothing working class about Loeffler .
She was appointed by Republican Gov @ @ @ @ @ @ @ replace Sen. Johnny Isakson , who retired mid-term .
The populist right furiously opposed Kemp ’ s choice of Loeffler , strongly preferring Collins , an opinion vocally shared by Trump , who was still complaining about the decision in April .
Yet , Kemp believed Loeffler was a better choice to defend the seat , arguing as Politico reported , that she ’ d “ help the party appeal to suburban women who ’ ve been abandoning the GOP in droves since Trump ’ s election.
” Her immense personal wealth and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ important considerations for the governor .
It hasn ’ t worked that way so far .
In the other Georgia Senate race , incumbent Republican David Perdue won 2,457,778 votes–a 49.7 percent plurality of the vote and 208,486 more votes than Loeffler and Collins received combined .
Moreover , Loeffler didn ’ t fare well in the Atlanta suburbs , pulling only 30 percent in Fayette County , and getting 25 and 22 percent in Cobb and Gwinnett counties , respectively .
Her disappointing performance isn ’ t a surprise .
She was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was sworn in as senator in January .
On April 6 , the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reported that Loeffler had used insider knowledge on the COVID-19 outbreak to sell shares in companies that stood to lose from a pandemic and buy shares in companies that stood to gain .
The trades began on January 24 , the same day Loeffler received a private briefing on the coronavirus as a member of the Senate Health Labor Education & Pensions Committee .
But if Loeffler , whose husband Jeffrey Sprecher is the chairman of the New @ @ @ @ @ @ @ millions in equities and has a private plane , that doesn ’ t mean she can ’ t pretend to be a populist .
Feeling pressure from Collins on her right flank , she began running an advertisement claiming she is “ more conservative than Attila the Hun ” and , as the Associated Press reported , boasted that she had the endorsement of QAnon congressional candidate and soon-to-be congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene .
Republican Sen. Kelly Loeffler stepped out of a Humvee on a foggy morning in northwest Georgia wearing an American @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of a congressional candidate who has expressed support for baseless QAnon conspiracy theories and made disparaging comments about Black people , Muslims and Jews .
Loeffler smiled and nodded as Marjorie Taylor Greene praised her as “ the most conservative Republican ” running in Georgia ’ s multi-candidate special election for the U.S. Senate seat Loeffler was appointed to 10 months ago .
“ What impressed me with Kelly is I found out that she believes a lot of the same things that I believe , ” Greene said at the Oct. 15 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Loeffler will convince a majority of Georgians to elect her .
Still , her panders to the right didn ’ t inspire suburban women and won ’ t be of much help in winning over undecided voters in the middle .
The outcome will tell us a lot about the future of the Republican Party .
Will it be a party for QAnon supporters or a party for asset management executives who fly around in private jets pretending to be QAnon supporters ?

Matt Taibbi, the Rolling Stone journalist turned Substack entrepreneur, had an immediate post-election take on the 2020 presidential election: Donald Trump may have lost, but he provided the GOP a roadmap to become the working man’s party. Citing both dubious exit polls and actual precinct data, Taibbi argued that Trump had overperformed with blacks, Latinos, and even the LGBTQ community, and he approvingly quoted a tweet by Republican Senator Josh Hawley of Missouri, saying, “We are a working class party now. That’s the future.”
Whether or not this is solid analysis, Donald Trump’s legislative legacy wasn’t populist. It was conventionally Republican. Consider the provision in his 2017 tax bill that incentivizes investment-fund and family-office managers to buy private airplanes. Accounting Today explains such aircraft, “avoid both what originally would have been a capital gains tax bill on their carried interest, and what would have been ordinary taxes on their management fees.”
This provision was eagerly seized upon by former asset management executive, Republican Senator Kelly Loeffler of Georgia, who rushed out and bought a 2010 Bombardier Challenger 300 at an estimated cost of $10 million. The aircraft became an issue in her primary against Trump ally and former Rep. Doug Collins, who attacked her as a moderate and idle rich.
The private jet exploit is a workaround to avoid new caps on deducting business losses, a section of Trump’s tax bill that the Joint Committee on Taxation laughably argued would generate $150 billion in revenue over the next ten years. The reality is quite different, as people like Loeffler now pay fewer taxes and get a free plane in the bargain.
Collins’s attack on Loeffler didn’t work, of course. He won only 20 percent of the vote in Georgia’s unique all-party primary. Loeffler received 26 percent and qualified for a January 5 runoff election against Democrat Raphael Warnock, the pastor of Martin Luther King Jr.’s Ebenezer Baptist Church in Atlanta who came in first place with 33 percent.
There’s actually nothing working class about Loeffler. She was appointed by Republican Gov. Brian Kemp in December 2019 to replace Sen. Johnny Isakson, who retired mid-term. The populist right furiously opposed Kemp’s choice of Loeffler, strongly preferring Collins, an opinion vocally shared by Trump, who was still complaining about the decision in April. Yet, Kemp believed Loeffler was a better choice to defend the seat, arguing as Politico reported, that she’d “help the party appeal to suburban women who’ve been abandoning the GOP in droves since Trump’s election.” Her immense personal wealth and willingness to self-fund her campaign were also important considerations for the governor.
It hasn’t worked that way so far. In the other Georgia Senate race, incumbent Republican David Perdue won 2,457,778 votes–a 49.7 percent plurality of the vote and 208,486 more votes than Loeffler and Collins received combined. Moreover, Loeffler didn’t fare well in the Atlanta suburbs, pulling only 30 percent in Fayette County, and getting 25 and 22 percent in Cobb and Gwinnett counties, respectively.
Her disappointing performance isn’t a surprise. She was embroiled in controversy not long after she was sworn in as senator in January. On April 6, the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reported that Loeffler had used insider knowledge on the COVID-19 outbreak to sell shares in companies that stood to lose from a pandemic and buy shares in companies that stood to gain. The trades began on January 24, the same day Loeffler received a private briefing on the coronavirus as a member of the Senate Health Labor Education & Pensions Committee.
But if Loeffler, whose husband Jeffrey Sprecher is the chairman of the New York Stock Exchange, specializes in purchasing millions in equities and has a private plane, that doesn’t mean she can’t pretend to be a populist. Feeling pressure from Collins on her right flank, she began running an advertisement claiming she is “more conservative than Attila the Hun” and, as the Associated Press reported, boasted that she had the endorsement of QAnon congressional candidate and soon-to-be congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene.
Republican Sen. Kelly Loeffler stepped out of a Humvee on a foggy morning in northwest Georgia wearing an American flag trucker hat to accept the endorsement of a congressional candidate who has expressed support for baseless QAnon conspiracy theories and made disparaging comments about Black people, Muslims and Jews. Loeffler smiled and nodded as Marjorie Taylor Greene praised her as “the most conservative Republican” running in Georgia’s multi-candidate special election for the U.S. Senate seat Loeffler was appointed to 10 months ago. “What impressed me with Kelly is I found out that she believes a lot of the same things that I believe,” Greene said at the Oct. 15 event.
It’s unclear whether Loeffler will convince a majority of Georgians to elect her. Still, her panders to the right didn’t inspire suburban women and won’t be of much help in winning over undecided voters in the middle. The outcome will tell us a lot about the future of the Republican Party. Will it be a party for QAnon supporters or a party for asset management executives who fly around in private jets pretending to be QAnon supporters?


washingtonmonthly--2020-11-10--How Fox News Foiled Trump’s Plan to Steal the Election

Donald Trump telegraphed his plan to steal the election in the days leading up to Nov. 3 .
He wanted to declare victory on election night , stop the counting mail-in votes he considered illegal , and , if necessary , send the election to the judiciary and eventually the Supreme Court .
Implementing that strategy would require a public relations effort in which Trump made at least a plausible case that he had won re-election .
Michigan and Wisconsin looked out of reach .
So the president would need to maintain the illusion that he was winning the rest @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pathway to 270 electoral votes .
The most vulnerable were Pennsylvania and Arizona .
Republicans had ensured , via the courts , that Pennsylvania couldn ’ t begin counting mail-in ballots prior to November 3rd .
So Trump was relying on an early lead in that state coming from those who had voted in person on Election Day .
That made Arizona pivotal to the public relations campaign for Trump to claim victory .
But at 11:20 pm on Tuesday , Fox News foiled the plan by calling Arizona for Biden .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Eventually , they were joined by NPR , “ PBS NewsHour , ” Univision , USA Today , and The Wall Street Journal .
With Arizona gone , Trump would have no clear path to 270 electoral votes .
As had been predicted , the call set up a showdown at Fox News .
The Trump campaign was livid .
According to Washington Post reporters Sarah Ellison and Josh Dawsey , the White House sprang into action .
In response , Fox News anchor Bret Baier brought Arnon Mishkin , the head of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ explain himself .
Mishkin stood his ground .
As of Tuesday , other major media outlets still haven ’ t called Arizona , setting up some interesting contrasts .
For example , here ’ s the banner from the election results page at the New York Times : And here ’ s the one from Fox News : What led Fox News , the Associated Press , and other organizations to call Arizona early ?
To understand , it is important to keep in mind that the modeling used by media to project @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2017 , the Associated Press broke away from the consortium of news organizations that relied on Edison Research to conduct exit polling .
Instead , they worked with the non-partisan research organization , NORC at the University of Chicago , to poll over 100,000 voters by phone in the days before the election .
That turned out to be a prescient move for an election dominated by mail-in ballots and early voting .
All media outlets that relied on AP ’ s VoteCast data , including Fox News , have called Arizona for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ t mean that Fox News is united on the election outcome .
Their opinion hosts continue to parrot Trump ’ s claim of a “ stolen election , ” as do guests like Newt Gingrich .
Even though the opinion side of Fox News is still championing Trump ’ s lost cause , the president ’ s enablers have gone into battle mode against the television network known for spewing the president ’ s propaganda .
For example , John Nolte at Breitbart News wrote that , because Fox News hasn ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the network has “ forever lost their core viewers , the people who were once the most loyal.
” At the Epoch Times , Roger Simon wrote that Fox ’ s decision room “ is only another example of the incestuous corruption that ’ s a hallmark of this post-modern fascism.
” Matthew Sheffield , reflecting on his exodus from right-wing news , provided some insight into the non-existent journalism standards that have sparked those claims .
U.S. conservatives do not understand the purpose of journalism .
This became evident to me as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ MUCH more biased than outlets run by liberals .
I eventually realized that most people who run right-dominated media outlets see it as their DUTY to be unfair and to favor Republicans because doing so would somehow counteract perceived liberal bias… I also discovered , as I rose through the right-wing media ranks , that most conservative media figures have no journalism training or desire to fact-check their own side .
I also saw so many people think that reporting of info negative to GOP politicians was biased , even if it was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ News is reporting the truth .
But because that truth hampers Trump ’ s ability to steal the election , it has been labeled “ biased.
” That pretty much captures how right-wing media has become a news bubble for conservatives .
For those of us who have been watching Fox News attack reputable media organizations as “ biased ” since its founding in 1996 , the whole situation reeks of irony .
The importance of the Arizona call should not , however , be overlooked .
The Trump campaign had to recalibrate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Rudy Giuliani ’ s press conference at Four Seasons Total Landscaping in Philadelphia on Saturday , the strategy was no longer to pressure the media into calling the race for Trump .
The script had been flipped entirely and , according to Giuliani , “ Networks don ’ t get to decide elections .
Courts do.
” In other words , the president is still counting on the Supreme Court .
But his once-favorite propaganda network refused to aid and abet the crime .

Donald Trump telegraphed his plan to steal the election in the days leading up to Nov. 3. He wanted to declare victory on election night, stop the counting mail-in votes he considered illegal, and, if necessary, send the election to the judiciary and eventually the Supreme Court.
Implementing that strategy would require a public relations effort in which Trump made at least a plausible case that he had won re-election. Michigan and Wisconsin looked out of reach. So the president would need to maintain the illusion that he was winning the rest of his 2016 states to have any pathway to 270 electoral votes. The most vulnerable were Pennsylvania and Arizona.
Republicans had ensured, via the courts, that Pennsylvania couldn’t begin counting mail-in ballots prior to November 3rd. So Trump was relying on an early lead in that state coming from those who had voted in person on Election Day. That made Arizona pivotal to the public relations campaign for Trump to claim victory.
But at 11:20 pm on Tuesday, Fox News foiled the plan by calling Arizona for Biden. The Associated Press followed at 2:50 AM. Eventually, they were joined by NPR, “PBS NewsHour,” Univision, USA Today, and The Wall Street Journal. With Arizona gone, Trump would have no clear path to 270 electoral votes.
As had been predicted, the call set up a showdown at Fox News. The Trump campaign was livid. According to Washington Post reporters Sarah Ellison and Josh Dawsey, the White House sprang into action.
Trump erupted in anger, telling others in the White House to “get that result changed,” a senior administration official said. His chief of staff, Mark Meadows, phoned Fox News’s decision desk repeatedly. Top aide Hope Hicks, who had returned to the White House earlier this year after a stint at Fox Corp., messaged Raj Shah, a former Trump White House staffer whom she hired at Fox, about how to get the call reversed. Kellyanne Conway got in touch with Fox News chief political anchor Bret Baier to complain. Jared Kushner reached out to Fox Corp.’s billionaire owner, Rupert Murdoch.
In response, Fox News anchor Bret Baier brought Arnon Mishkin, the head of their decision desk, on air to explain himself. Mishkin stood his ground.
As of Tuesday, other major media outlets still haven’t called Arizona, setting up some interesting contrasts. For example, here’s the banner from the election results page at the New York Times:
And here’s the one from Fox News:
What led Fox News, the Associated Press, and other organizations to call Arizona early? To understand, it is important to keep in mind that the modeling used by media to project winners includes exit poll data. In 2017, the Associated Press broke away from the consortium of news organizations that relied on Edison Research to conduct exit polling. Instead, they worked with the non-partisan research organization, NORC at the University of Chicago, to poll over 100,000 voters by phone in the days before the election. That turned out to be a prescient move for an election dominated by mail-in ballots and early voting. All media outlets that relied on AP’s VoteCast data, including Fox News, have called Arizona for Biden.
Of course, that doesn’t mean that Fox News is united on the election outcome. Their opinion hosts continue to parrot Trump’s claim of a “stolen election,” as do guests like Newt Gingrich.
Even though the opinion side of Fox News is still championing Trump’s lost cause, the president’s enablers have gone into battle mode against the television network known for spewing the president’s propaganda. For example, John Nolte at Breitbart News wrote that, because Fox News hasn’t been sufficiently loyal to Trump, the network has “forever lost their core viewers, the people who were once the most loyal.” At the Epoch Times, Roger Simon wrote that Fox’s decision room “is only another example of the incestuous corruption that’s a hallmark of this post-modern fascism.”
Matthew Sheffield, reflecting on his exodus from right-wing news, provided some insight into the non-existent journalism standards that have sparked those claims.
U.S. conservatives do not understand the purpose of journalism. This became evident to me as I saw that conservative-dominated media outlets were MUCH more biased than outlets run by liberals. I eventually realized that most people who run right-dominated media outlets see it as their DUTY to be unfair and to favor Republicans because doing so would somehow counteract perceived liberal bias… I also discovered, as I rose through the right-wing media ranks, that most conservative media figures have no journalism training or desire to fact-check their own side. I also saw so many people think that reporting of info negative to GOP politicians was biased, even if it was true.
The decision desk at Fox News is reporting the truth. But because that truth hampers Trump’s ability to steal the election, it has been labeled “biased.” That pretty much captures how right-wing media has become a news bubble for conservatives. For those of us who have been watching Fox News attack reputable media organizations as “biased” since its founding in 1996, the whole situation reeks of irony.
The importance of the Arizona call should not, however, be overlooked. The Trump campaign had to recalibrate their plans to comic effect. At Rudy Giuliani’s press conference at Four Seasons Total Landscaping in Philadelphia on Saturday, the strategy was no longer to pressure the media into calling the race for Trump. The script had been flipped entirely and, according to Giuliani, “Networks don’t get to decide elections. Courts do.” In other words, the president is still counting on the Supreme Court. But his once-favorite propaganda network refused to aid and abet the crime.


washingtonmonthly--2020-11-09--How Trump’s GSA Administrator is Holding Up the Biden Transition


washingtonmonthly--2020-11-11--How Vote By Mail Saved Democracy and Defeated Trump

Donald Trump is contesting an election he lost by leveling baseless charges at an electoral mechanism that he long suspected would be his undoing : mail-in voting .
It ’ s possible that he can upend the will of the people , especially given the craven willingness of GOP officials to aid and abet him .
Because that would require thwarting the vote in several states already in Joe Biden ’ s column , Trump ’ s subterfuge is a long shot .
As we wait and see , I can ’ t help feeling a sense of personal satisfaction @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Trump ’ s fear and loathing .
Let me tell you why .
When I joined the Washington Monthly as an intern in 1984 , one of my bosses was a young editor named Phil Keisling .
In 1991 , Keisling was elected secretary of state of Oregon , where he set up the nation ’ s first universal statewide vote by mail program .
Despite the reform ’ s evident success in boosting turnout and Keisling ’ s vigorous proselytizing , few other states followed suit , largely because there was no @ @ @ @ @ @ @ reflexively opposed any change that would broaden voting .
Democrats weren ’ t convinced that this reform would give them a partisan advantage .
Instead , they devoted all their energies to voter registration , early voting , and other traditional tactics .
Consequently , the national press virtually ignored the subject .
The one exception was the Washington Monthly .
Beginning in 2012 , at my request , Keisling wrote a series of deeply researched stories making the case for the benefits—especially for mobilizing low-propensity voters—of universal vote by mail , or @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at home ” Those stories got some attention but were met with skepticism by a number of electoral reform experts .
So the Washington Monthly commissioned studies by an independent researcher on the turnout effects of vote by mail in states that had implemented it—studies that got coverage in The Washington Post and The New York Times and were widely discussed in political circles .
Keisling and I also helped found a nonprofit , the National Vote at Home Institute , to provide full-time research and bipartisan advocacy for the idea .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ source on all things vote by mail .
Slowly , our work began to bend the curve of elite opinion .
Vote at home won endorsements from Common Cause , the Center for American Progress , the AFL-CIO , and even the DNC .
A campaign in Arizona to encourage mail-in balloting contributed to the razor-thin electoral victories of Katie Hobbs for secretary of state in 2018 and Kirsten Sinema for the U.S. Senate in 2019 .
By 2020 , Utah ( a red state ) and Hawaii ( a blue state ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Colorado in instituting universal vote by mail , as had 15 counties in California .
Pennsylvania , Virginia , and Michigan had implemented no-excuse absentee balloting measures , a key first step toward universal vote at home , which is when a mail ballot is sent automatically to every registered voter .
Then came the coronavirus pandemic .
Suddenly , in a matter of weeks , a consensus developed that vote by mail was the best and perhaps only way to save the 2020 elections , given the health risks of voting in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ formed so rapidly without the spadework we did .
But it also freaked out Donald Trump , who famously tweeted in May that vote by mail would “ LEAD TO THE END OF OUR GREAT REPUBLICAN PARTY.
” His fear became a self-fulfilling prophecy .
Republican voters , who once used mail-in balloting disproportionately , abandoned the practice .
Democratic voters , meanwhile , embraced it .
This led Republicans to engage in various sabotage efforts , which my colleague Eric Cortellessa has been tirelessly uncovering for months .
These include banning swing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ election day ( in order to engineer the very counting delays Trump has warned are a sign of fraud ) and , in Pennsylvania , outright refusals by some GOP elections officials to count mail-in ballots that are postmarked by November 3 but arrive after that date despite a ruling by the U.S. Supreme Court that they do so .
How this developing constitutional crisis will play out is anyone ’ s guess .
It was certainly beyond my wildest imagination that vote by mail would be at the center of such a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the policy eight years ago .
But rest assured , my colleagues and I will be covering events as they unfold as carefully and relentlessly as we can .
If you think the Washington Monthly ’ s high-impact journalism is valuable and important , there ’ s something you can do to help : make a donation during our year-end fundraising drive .
In fact , do it right now .
Give whatever you can— $ 10 , $ 50 , $ 1,000—before December 31 , and your contribution will be matched , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ generous challenge grant we ’ ve received from NewsMatch , an organization dedicated to helping nonprofit news organizations like the Monthly .
As a nonprofit , we can ’ t do the work we do without your support .
( It also means your donation is tax-deductible . )
As a token of our gratitude , if you give $ 50 or more , you ’ ll receive a free one-year subscription to the print edition of the Washington Monthly .

Donald Trump is contesting an election he lost by leveling baseless charges at an electoral mechanism that he long suspected would be his undoing: mail-in voting. It’s possible that he can upend the will of the people, especially given the craven willingness of GOP officials to aid and abet him. Because that would require thwarting the vote in several states already in Joe Biden’s column, Trump’s subterfuge is a long shot.
As we wait and see, I can’t help feeling a sense of personal satisfaction that mail-in ballots are the source of Trump’s fear and loathing. Let me tell you why.
When I joined the Washington Monthly as an intern in 1984, one of my bosses was a young editor named Phil Keisling. In 1991, Keisling was elected secretary of state of Oregon, where he set up the nation’s first universal statewide vote by mail program.
Despite the reform’s evident success in boosting turnout and Keisling’s vigorous proselytizing, few other states followed suit, largely because there was no political constituency for the idea. Republicans reflexively opposed any change that would broaden voting. Democrats weren’t convinced that this reform would give them a partisan advantage. Instead, they devoted all their energies to voter registration, early voting, and other traditional tactics. Consequently, the national press virtually ignored the subject.
The one exception was the Washington Monthly. Beginning in 2012, at my request, Keisling wrote a series of deeply researched stories making the case for the benefits—especially for mobilizing low-propensity voters—of universal vote by mail, or as we called it, “vote at home.” Those stories got some attention but were met with skepticism by a number of electoral reform experts. So the Washington Monthly commissioned studies by an independent researcher on the turnout effects of vote by mail in states that had implemented it—studies that got coverage in The Washington Post and The New York Times and were widely discussed in political circles. Keisling and I also helped found a nonprofit, the National Vote at Home Institute, to provide full-time research and bipartisan advocacy for the idea. The NVAHI has since become the most trusted source on all things vote by mail.
Slowly, our work began to bend the curve of elite opinion. Vote at home won endorsements from Common Cause, the Center for American Progress, the AFL-CIO, and even the DNC. A campaign in Arizona to encourage mail-in balloting contributed to the razor-thin electoral victories of Katie Hobbs for secretary of state in 2018 and Kirsten Sinema for the U.S. Senate in 2019. By 2020, Utah (a red state) and Hawaii (a blue state) had joined Oregon, Washington, and Colorado in instituting universal vote by mail, as had 15 counties in California. Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Michigan had implemented no-excuse absentee balloting measures, a key first step toward universal vote at home, which is when a mail ballot is sent automatically to every registered voter.
Then came the coronavirus pandemic. Suddenly, in a matter of weeks, a consensus developed that vote by mail was the best and perhaps only way to save the 2020 elections, given the health risks of voting in person. That consensus would not have formed so rapidly without the spadework we did. But it also freaked out Donald Trump, who famously tweeted in May that vote by mail would “LEAD TO THE END OF OUR GREAT REPUBLICAN PARTY.”
His fear became a self-fulfilling prophecy. Republican voters, who once used mail-in balloting disproportionately, abandoned the practice. Democratic voters, meanwhile, embraced it.
This led Republicans to engage in various sabotage efforts, which my colleague Eric Cortellessa has been tirelessly uncovering for months. These include banning swing states from processing mail-in ballots prior to election day (in order to engineer the very counting delays Trump has warned are a sign of fraud) and, in Pennsylvania, outright refusals by some GOP elections officials to count mail-in ballots that are postmarked by November 3 but arrive after that date despite a ruling by the U.S. Supreme Court that they do so.
How this developing constitutional crisis will play out is anyone’s guess. It was certainly beyond my wildest imagination that vote by mail would be at the center of such a crisis when we first started to promote the policy eight years ago. But rest assured, my colleagues and I will be covering events as they unfold as carefully and relentlessly as we can.
If you think the Washington Monthly’s high-impact journalism is valuable and important, there’s something you can do to help: make a donation during our year-end fundraising drive. In fact, do it right now. Give whatever you can—$10, $50, $1,000—before December 31, and your contribution will be matched, dollar for dollar, thanks to a generous challenge grant we’ve received from NewsMatch, an organization dedicated to helping nonprofit news organizations like the Monthly. As a nonprofit, we can’t do the work we do without your support. (It also means your donation is tax-deductible.) As a token of our gratitude, if you give $50 or more, you’ll receive a free one-year subscription to the print edition of the Washington Monthly.