washingtonmonthly--2020-03-25--Young Americans, Here’s a Selfish Reason to Stay Home

As the coronavirus pandemic sweeps the globe , few images have been as maddening as those of masses of young people partying on beaches in blatant defiance of public health officials ’ pleas to “ social distance.
” “ This is so unintelligent and reckless , ” said New York Governor Andrew Cuomo .
“ I can ’ t even begin to express it.
” Needless to say , by ignoring directives to stay home , young adults endanger the health of their parents and grandparents , whoat higher risk of serious illness .
And far from invincible themselves , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as 40 percent of patients hospitalized for COVID-19 .
But if their own health and safety aren ’ t reason enough for young Americans to stay put , they should consider their economic self-interest as well .
Young people will be bear the brunt of the coronavirus recession .
The longer the crisis continues , the more painful the economic fallout will be , as businesses stay shuttered and the economy risks plunging into a depression .
Helping to “ flatten the curve , ” in other words , will not only save @ @ @ @ @ @ @ economic shock of the crisis , and improve future economic prospects for the younger generation .
The restaurant , retail , and hotel industries are all reeling from the pandemic .
Marriott , for instance , has furloughed tens of thousands of employees .
So , too , have Hilton and Hyatt .
Many small businesses are forced to close shop or lay off most of their workforce .
Young workers are among the first to feel the pain .
According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics , workers between the ages @ @ @ @ @ @ @ one-third of restaurant waitstaff , one-fourth of all retail cashiers , and one-fifth of all retail salesclerks .
Young workers also occupy a large share of other entry-level service jobs in entertainment and hospitality , such as hotel and motel desk clerks ( one-third ) , ushers and ticket-takers ( one-fifth ) and baggage handlers ( one-sixth ) .
That ’ s just in those industries .
Young people make up a disproportionate share of the low-wage workforce hardest hit by the pandemic , period , according to new research from the Brookings @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Bateman , and Alec Friedhoff find that workers ages 18 to 24 comprise nearly one in four low-wage workers , with the most common occupations being retail , food service , and lower-level administrative support .
Many of these young workers can ill afford any loss of income : Among the 13 percent who lack a college degree , the median hourly wage is just $ 8.55 .
Worse yet , one in five of these workers is the sole earner in their family ; 14 percent are also caring for children .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ young adults who will suffer from a prolonged economic crisis ; an entire cohort of prospective college graduates—many with large student debt burdens—also suddenly find their plans in limbo .
“ Job fairs and internships have been called off , as have debating competitions , graduate school admission tests and conferences that are essential opportunities to network and get jobs , ” writes The Hechinger Report .
Students who graduated during the Great Recession a decade ago might consider themselves lucky by comparison to what this year ’ s graduates are facing .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ economic circumstances even before the current crisis .
According to the Social Science Research Council , as many as 4.5 million young adults ages 16 to 24 were not in school nor working in 2017 , the latest year for which data are available .
No doubt this figure has already skyrocketed , putting an entire generation at risk of severe , long-term economic disadvantage .
Some recent polling suggests that many young Americans do , in fact , grasp the personal economic implications of the COVID-19 epidemic .
They may actually internalize @ @ @ @ @ @ @ risks .
A new survey by the youth-focused public opinion firm College Reaction finds that just 50 percent of college students are concerned about contracting COVID-19 themselves .
But 91 percent are concerned about “ the U.S. economy and the job market.
” That ’ s a good start , but it ’ s not enough .
Young people need to understand the connection that their behavior has on the severity—and duration—of the pandemic , both for public health and for the economy .
Young people already go out the most , so @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the spread of the virus .
That means staying home and adhering to social distancing guidelines .
If they do , they will not only help to flatten the curve of the epidemic .
They will lessen the depth of the nation ’ s economic crisis .
And the generation they will ultimately save is their own .

As the coronavirus pandemic sweeps the globe, few images have been as maddening as those of masses of young people partying on beaches in blatant defiance of public health officials’ pleas to “social distance.” “This is so unintelligent and reckless,” said New York Governor Andrew Cuomo. “I can’t even begin to express it.”
Needless to say, by ignoring directives to stay home, young adults endanger the health of their parents and grandparents, who are at higher risk of serious illness. And far from invincible themselves, younger people now account for as much as 40 percent of patients hospitalized for COVID-19.
But if their own health and safety aren’t reason enough for young Americans to stay put, they should consider their economic self-interest as well. Young people will be bear the brunt of the coronavirus recession. The longer the crisis continues, the more painful the economic fallout will be, as businesses stay shuttered and the economy risks plunging into a depression. Helping to “flatten the curve,” in other words, will not only save lives. It will help mitigate the economic shock of the crisis, and improve future economic prospects for the younger generation.
The restaurant, retail, and hotel industries are all reeling from the pandemic. Marriott, for instance, has furloughed tens of thousands of employees. So, too, have Hilton and Hyatt. Many small businesses are forced to close shop or lay off most of their workforce. Young workers are among the first to feel the pain.
According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, workers between the ages of 20 and 24 account for nearly one-third of restaurant waitstaff, one-fourth of all retail cashiers, and one-fifth of all retail salesclerks. Young workers also occupy a large share of other entry-level service jobs in entertainment and hospitality, such as hotel and motel desk clerks (one-third), ushers and ticket-takers (one-fifth) and baggage handlers (one-sixth).
That’s just in those industries. Young people make up a disproportionate share of the low-wage workforce hardest hit by the pandemic, period, according to new research from the Brookings Institution. Scholars Martha Ross, Nicole Bateman, and Alec Friedhoff find that workers ages 18 to 24 comprise nearly one in four low-wage workers, with the most common occupations being retail, food service, and lower-level administrative support. Many of these young workers can ill afford any loss of income: Among the 13 percent who lack a college degree, the median hourly wage is just $8.55. Worse yet, one in five of these workers is the sole earner in their family; 14 percent are also caring for children.
But it’s not just low-income young adults who will suffer from a prolonged economic crisis; an entire cohort of prospective college graduates—many with large student debt burdens—also suddenly find their plans in limbo. “Job fairs and internships have been called off, as have debating competitions, graduate school admission tests and conferences that are essential opportunities to network and get jobs,” writes The Hechinger Report. Students who graduated during the Great Recession a decade ago might consider themselves lucky by comparison to what this year’s graduates are facing.
Many young people were already in dire economic circumstances even before the current crisis. According to the Social Science Research Council, as many as 4.5 million young adults ages 16 to 24 were not in school nor working in 2017, the latest year for which data are available. No doubt this figure has already skyrocketed, putting an entire generation at risk of severe, long-term economic disadvantage.
Some recent polling suggests that many young Americans do, in fact, grasp the personal economic implications of the COVID-19 epidemic. They may actually internalize the economic consequences more than the health risks. A new survey by the youth-focused public opinion firm College Reaction finds that just 50 percent of college students are concerned about contracting COVID-19 themselves. But 91 percent are concerned about “the U.S. economy and the job market.”
That’s a good start, but it’s not enough. Young people need to understand the connection that their behavior has on the severity—and duration—of the pandemic, both for public health and for the economy. Young people already go out the most, so they can do the most to stop the spread of the virus. That means staying home and adhering to social distancing guidelines. If they do, they will not only help to flatten the curve of the epidemic. They will lessen the depth of the nation’s economic crisis. And the generation they will ultimately save is their own.


washingtonmonthly--2020-03-25--When it Comes to Trump’s Failures, Hyperbole Is Unnecessary

Hyperbole has become an expected part of political campaigns .
Most candidates exaggerate both their own accomplishments and their opponents ’ failures .
But with Donald Trump , it is not only difficult to exaggerate , it might not be necessary—as this ad demonstrates .
That video touches on this president ’ s overall failure in response to the coronavirus crisis .
When it comes to his initial response , this ad breaks it down well .
When that ad was released in mid-March , the number of coronavirus cases in the U.S. was just over 5,000 .
As I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to 54,000 .
Lately , the president has basically told the people who are at the epicenter of this virus in New York to “ drop dead , ” while he suggests that governors need to kiss his ass to get what they need from him .
As most of the media attention is focused on the outbreaks in New York , Washington , and California , the number of cases in New Orleans is exploding , causing health care workers to describe the scene as a “ war zone.
” In the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ president has chosen this moment to suggest that it ’ s time to open things up , which would put at least hundreds of thousands of lives at risk .
That is why it is impossible to exaggerate the level of failure when it comes to Trump ’ s handling of this crisis .
It is true that he didn ’ t create it .
But at every turn , the combination of his incompetence and malevolence has been an utter disaster .
We ’ re still in the midst of this crisis @ @ @ @ @ @ @ still unfolding .
But the one thing we know for sure is that we can count on this president to do the wrong thing .
We ’ ve always known that about him , but in this crisis , the reality is overwhelming .
So I am reminded of the warning Representative Adam Schiff leveled a mere six weeks ago when he talked about “ midnight in Washington.
” Speaking to Republican Senators , Schiff said , “ You will not change him .
You can not constrain him .
Truth matters little @ @ @ @ @ @ @ matters even less .
And decency matters not at all.
” Republicans knew all of that when they voted against removing Trump from office .
And so , as Schiff said , “ your name will be tied to his with a cord of steel and for all of history .
”

Hyperbole has become an expected part of political campaigns. Most candidates exaggerate both their own accomplishments and their opponents’ failures. But with Donald Trump, it is not only difficult to exaggerate, it might not be necessary—as this ad demonstrates.
That video touches on this president’s overall failure in response to the coronavirus crisis. When it comes to his initial response, this ad breaks it down well.
When that ad was released in mid-March, the number of coronavirus cases in the U.S. was just over 5,000. As I write this, the number has grown to 54,000.
Lately, the president has basically told the people who are at the epicenter of this virus in New York to “drop dead,” while he suggests that governors need to kiss his ass to get what they need from him. As most of the media attention is focused on the outbreaks in New York, Washington, and California, the number of cases in New Orleans is exploding, causing health care workers to describe the scene as a “war zone.” In the face of all of that, the president has chosen this moment to suggest that it’s time to open things up, which would put at least hundreds of thousands of lives at risk.
That is why it is impossible to exaggerate the level of failure when it comes to Trump’s handling of this crisis. It is true that he didn’t create it. But at every turn, the combination of his incompetence and malevolence has been an utter disaster.
We’re still in the midst of this crisis, with the depths of its destruction still unfolding. But the one thing we know for sure is that we can count on this president to do the wrong thing. We’ve always known that about him, but in this crisis, the reality is overwhelming. So I am reminded of the warning Representative Adam Schiff leveled a mere six weeks ago when he talked about “midnight in Washington.”
Speaking to Republican Senators, Schiff said, “You will not change him. You cannot constrain him. Truth matters little to him. What’s right matters even less. And decency matters not at all.” Republicans knew all of that when they voted against removing Trump from office. And so, as Schiff said, “your name will be tied to his with a cord of steel and for all of history.”


washingtonmonthly--2020-03-25--We’re Past the Point of Giving Trump Advice

A few days ago , I started telling people I know that the coronavirus crisis will begin to overwhelm us in about three weeks ’ time .
I based that on looking at where other countries are , particularly Italy , and then I just projected forward knowing that we haven ’ t done enough to prevent or prepare for the worst .
The New York Times editorial board put it this way : I ’ d love to spend a bunch of time arguing with the president about the advisability of people showing up for Easter services , but @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
This reality will not bend to fit Trump ’ s fantasies .
Speaking of fantasies , that pretty well describes the rest of the editorial board ’ s piece , because it is basically a long exhortation for the president to do things he will never proactively and voluntarily do .
That will not happen .
The opposite of that is happening .
The president could not have been more clear that he is opposed to this .
Lines of authority and policy aims need to be clarified within the White House @ @ @ @ @ @ @ official crisis czar , but Jared Kushner , the president ’ s son-in-law , has his own response team working on , among other things , outreach to the private sector .
Certain senior aides , with business leaders whispering in their ears , are at odds with some health advisers about what restrictions are needed and how heavy the government ’ s hand should be… …Federalism is integral to American government , but the administration needs to get serious about running a coordinated national response .
Why , at this point , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ capable of coordinating a response is beyond me .
This will simply never happen as long as Trump remains president .
And that ’ s why this is delusional : There is not “ no one else ” to coordinate at the national level , there is no one who can do this period .
The only solution , and it ’ s glaringly obvious , is to remove Trump from office now and put our faith in Mike Pence to at least follow the direction of the experts he ’ s ostensibly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ point of there being any profit in telling Trump what he should do .
He will not do it , and will most often make things a hundred times worse .
That ’ s why this is a ridiculous waste of breath : It ’ s time to put an end to the free-form daily task force briefings featuring the president , the vice president and a rotating cast of other officials .
They are a poor use of time for most of the participants and , worse , have repeatedly served up @ @ @ @ @ @ @ president should tap a respected figure , preferably someone apolitical and with experience in crisis management , to serve as the point person for these briefings .
When developments merit , other officials can be brought in to address specific topics .
That ’ s the last thing on Earth that will ever happen .
If the Editorial Board wants the president to face reality they should set an example by facing reality themselves .
There is only one solution here that can prevent or at least mitigate total disaster , and that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ convinced that they don ’ t want two million deaths on their conscience because they refused to do what was necessary while there was still time for it to matter .

A few days ago, I started telling people I know that the coronavirus crisis will begin to overwhelm us in about three weeks’ time. I based that on looking at where other countries are, particularly Italy, and then I just projected forward knowing that we haven’t done enough to prevent or prepare for the worst. The New York Times editorial board put it this way:
On Tuesday, Mr. Trump said he’d “love to have the country opened up and just raring to go by Easter,” which falls this year on April 12. Who wouldn’t? But wishing will not make it so. This crisis has not turned a corner — it hasn’t even hit yet.
I’d love to spend a bunch of time arguing with the president about the advisability of people showing up for Easter services, but events will make the case for me. This reality will not bend to fit Trump’s fantasies.
Speaking of fantasies, that pretty well describes the rest of the editorial board’s piece, because it is basically a long exhortation for the president to do things he will never proactively and voluntarily do.
President Trump needs to call for a two-week shelter-in-place order, now, as part of a coherent national strategy for the coronavirus to protect Americans and their livelihoods.
That will not happen.
We are not suggesting that Mr. Trump has the authority to order a national lockdown, much less advocating that he attempt to enforce one. Instead, we are urging him to use the bully pulpit to put pressure on, and provide political cover for, governors to take the hard steps that are needed.
The opposite of that is happening.
He should announce that, within 24 hours, all nonessential businesses should be shut and residents directed to remain in their homes except for vital trips out, such as to obtain food or medical care.
The president could not have been more clear that he is opposed to this.
Lines of authority and policy aims need to be clarified within the White House. Vice President Mike Pence is the official crisis czar, but Jared Kushner, the president’s son-in-law, has his own response team working on, among other things, outreach to the private sector. Certain senior aides, with business leaders whispering in their ears, are at odds with some health advisers about what restrictions are needed and how heavy the government’s hand should be… …Federalism is integral to American government, but the administration needs to get serious about running a coordinated national response.
Why, at this point, anyone would expect this administration to be capable of coordinating a response is beyond me. This will simply never happen as long as Trump remains president. And that’s why this is delusional:
This editorial board is reluctant to grant any White House more executive power, much less this one, given its track record. But in this case, there is no one else to coordinate at the national level.
There is not “no one else” to coordinate at the national level, there is no one who can do this period. The only solution, and it’s glaringly obvious, is to remove Trump from office now and put our faith in Mike Pence to at least follow the direction of the experts he’s ostensibly organizing.
We’re past the point of there being any profit in telling Trump what he should do. He will not do it, and will most often make things a hundred times worse. That’s why this is a ridiculous waste of breath:
It’s time to put an end to the free-form daily task force briefings featuring the president, the vice president and a rotating cast of other officials. They are a poor use of time for most of the participants and, worse, have repeatedly served up confusing and even false information. The president should tap a respected figure, preferably someone apolitical and with experience in crisis management, to serve as the point person for these briefings. When developments merit, other officials can be brought in to address specific topics.
That’s the last thing on Earth that will ever happen.
If the Editorial Board wants the president to face reality they should set an example by facing reality themselves. There is only one solution here that can prevent or at least mitigate total disaster, and that’s if the Republicans can be convinced that they don’t want two million deaths on their conscience because they refused to do what was necessary while there was still time for it to matter.


washingtonmonthly--2020-04-16--You Can’t Analyze Our Politics Without Talking About Covid-19

Sydney Ember of the New York Times seems somewhere between miffed and mystified that everyone is racing to endorse Joe Biden and that they ’ re getting praised for it .
In particular , she seems almost incensed that folks are lining up to say nice things about Bernie Sanders , when they spent a year or more trashing him : “ Never mind that Mr. Biden had spent part of the Democratic primary race accusing Mr. Sanders of disloyalty for considering a primary challenge against Mr. Obama in 2012.
” She ’ s also undecided about what it all @ @ @ @ @ @ @ she says “ Mr .
Sanders is in the uniquely awkward position of being venerated by a party he has never joined… ” And , then , on the other hand , she argues both the prior criticism and the current praise of Sanders are nothing but a show that calls “ into question whether political messages are simply a form of competitive posturing.
” Maybe no one actually believed all those nasty things they said about Bernie , or perhaps they ’ ve instantly concluded it was all hyperbole : “ Mr @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of losing candidates who seemed more palatable to onetime critics in hindsight… Democrats also looked fondly back at Senators John McCain , of Arizona , and Mitt Romney , of Utah , as pre-Trump Republicans who were actually never that bad.
” They say that one of the symptoms of COVID-19 is that you lose your senses of taste and smell .
Fortunately , the only sense I seem to have lost is for what ’ s truly important enough to write about during our current global crisis .
Sometimes it seems like @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I know that pandemic itself meets it , which is why I am astonished that Ms. Ember managed to write this entire piece about rivals coalescing behind Biden without once mentioning the viral outbreak that has already cost tens of thousands of Americans their lives .
She ’ s correct that the Democratic Establishment exhaled in relief when Sanders ended his campaign and quickly endorsed Biden .
But it ’ s not only “ a projection of how desperate Democrats are to beat Mr. Trump.
” It ’ s more than just the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hung on too long and did too much damage to Hillary Clinton .
It ’ s a recognition that these are no ordinary times and that we need to get focused on fixing the country ’ s many problems rather than bickering among ourselves .
The pandemic is the central explanation for why Bernie Sanders ended his campaign when he did .
Knowing he was defeated didn ’ t force him out in 2016 , and he was initially inclined to again gather as many convention delegates as he could in a bid @ @ @ @ @ @ @ changed his mind because there were many more levels of resistance to him continuing this time around .
He changed his mind because social distancing rules made it impossible for him to hold rallies or get his message out .
He changed his mind because Joe Biden offered him something that Clinton didn ’ t , which is a bunch of working groups to work on the platform prior to the convention .
This was gracious , but also a recognition that the convention may not be held in physical space but rather @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , only in the online world .
You can ’ t understand or intelligently discuss Sanders ’ behavior without putting COVID-19 front and center .
To a lesser degree , the same can be said for the decision-making of Elizabeth Warren .
This can be seen even in the area of health care .
That ’ s the issue , more than any other , where principles and ideals argued for a continuation of the debate straight through the convention .
But now that we ’ re seeing our medical system stagger under @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s less about knowing that Sanders and Warren had a point than realizing that Biden will have the space and incentive and even the obligation to go bigger than he initially intended .
The crisis is not only the reason why Sanders dropped out , It ’ s the reason the Establishment is so willing to let bygones be bygones .
There ’ s nothing phony about it .
It ’ s just people treating the times with the urgency they demand .

Sydney Ember of the New York Times seems somewhere between miffed and mystified that everyone is racing to endorse Joe Biden and that they’re getting praised for it. In particular, she seems almost incensed that folks are lining up to say nice things about Bernie Sanders, when they spent a year or more trashing him: “Never mind that Mr. Biden had spent part of the Democratic primary race accusing Mr. Sanders of disloyalty for considering a primary challenge against Mr. Obama in 2012.”
She’s also undecided about what it all means. On the one hand, she says “Mr. Sanders is in the uniquely awkward position of being venerated by a party he has never joined…” And, then, on the other hand, she argues both the prior criticism and the current praise of Sanders are nothing but a show that calls “into question whether political messages are simply a form of competitive posturing.” Maybe no one actually believed all those nasty things they said about Bernie, or perhaps they’ve instantly concluded it was all hyperbole: “Mr. Sanders is joining a long line of losing candidates who seemed more palatable to onetime critics in hindsight… Democrats also looked fondly back at Senators John McCain, of Arizona, and Mitt Romney, of Utah, as pre-Trump Republicans who were actually never that bad.”
They say that one of the symptoms of COVID-19 is that you lose your senses of taste and smell. Fortunately, the only sense I seem to have lost is for what’s truly important enough to write about during our current global crisis. Sometimes it seems like virtually nothing meets that test. But I know that pandemic itself meets it, which is why I am astonished that Ms. Ember managed to write this entire piece about rivals coalescing behind Biden without once mentioning the viral outbreak that has already cost tens of thousands of Americans their lives.
She’s correct that the Democratic Establishment exhaled in relief when Sanders ended his campaign and quickly endorsed Biden. But it’s not only “a projection of how desperate Democrats are to beat Mr. Trump.” It’s more than just the post-traumatic hangover from 2016, when Sanders hung on too long and did too much damage to Hillary Clinton. It’s a recognition that these are no ordinary times and that we need to get focused on fixing the country’s many problems rather than bickering among ourselves.
The pandemic is the central explanation for why Bernie Sanders ended his campaign when he did. Knowing he was defeated didn’t force him out in 2016, and he was initially inclined to again gather as many convention delegates as he could in a bid to affect the party platform. He changed his mind because there were many more levels of resistance to him continuing this time around. He changed his mind because social distancing rules made it impossible for him to hold rallies or get his message out. He changed his mind because Joe Biden offered him something that Clinton didn’t, which is a bunch of working groups to work on the platform prior to the convention. This was gracious, but also a recognition that the convention may not be held in physical space but rather, much like the upcoming NFL Draft, only in the online world.
You can’t understand or intelligently discuss Sanders’ behavior without putting COVID-19 front and center. To a lesser degree, the same can be said for the decision-making of Elizabeth Warren. This can be seen even in the area of health care. That’s the issue, more than any other, where principles and ideals argued for a continuation of the debate straight through the convention. But now that we’re seeing our medical system stagger under the magnitude of the crisis, it’s less about knowing that Sanders and Warren had a point than realizing that Biden will have the space and incentive and even the obligation to go bigger than he initially intended.
The crisis is not only the reason why Sanders dropped out, It’s the reason the Establishment is so willing to let bygones be bygones. There’s nothing phony about it. It’s just people treating the times with the urgency they demand.


washingtonmonthly--2020-04-16--What Makes a “Healthy” Economy?

What Makes a “Healthy” Economy?

Last week , Janet Yellin , former chair of the Federal Reserve , gave an upbeat assessment of the pre-pandemic U.S. economy .
“ Very fortunately we started with an economy that was healthy before this hit , ” she told the PBS NewsHour .
“ The banks were in good shape , the financial system was sound , Americans at least overall on average had relatively low debt burdens.
” But how “ healthy ” was that economy , really ?
How healthy is an economy whose workers have so little savings that they can ’ t make the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ paychecks ?
How healthy is an economy whose small businesses have so little cushion that they face almost instant obliteration when their cash flow is disrupted ?
How healthy is an economy where hourly employees performing many essential services earn so little that they have to go to work sick to keep their jobs ?
And how healthy is an economy whose housing costs force millions to cram into overcrowded homes in polluted slums replete with high stress , malnutrition , asthma , diabetes , heart problems , and other chronic disease ?
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ with our economy , ” said Fed chairman Jerome Powell in March .
It was “ resilient , ” he said in February .
Yellin concurred , citing the old good news in her hope that the “ economy will recover much more speedily than it did from any past downturn.
” Recover for whom ?
The experts look at conventional measurements , which painted a picture of prosperity before COVID-19 .
The unemployment rate last September hit a fifty-year low , at 3.5 percent , and the rate for people without a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ low of 4.8 percent .
The GDP had been growing within the range considered ideal—two to three percent—and Powell reported a rising willingness of employers to hire low-skilled workers and train them .
But alongside the bright figures on unemployment and job creation , consider a competing set of numbers from before the pandemic : The poverty-level wages for those who harvest our vegetables , cut our Christmas trees , wash our cars , cook and serve our food in restaurants , deliver groceries to our doors , clean our offices , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ million households ( 11.1 percent ) uncertain that they could afford enough food , and the 5.6 million families ( 4.3 percent ) where at least one person has had to cut back on eating during the year .
The 14.3 percent of black children with asthma , double the rate in the population overall .
The 20 percent of children living in crowded homes shared with other families or three generations of their own , and the 50 percent of urban children who have lived in those conditions by age nine .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ the unexpected link between housing costs and malnutrition .
For many low-wage families without access to such government subsidies as Section 8 vouchers or affordable housing , rent can soak up 40 to 60 percent of income , which can leave too little for other necessities .
You have to pay the rent .
You have to pay the electricity , phone , and fuel bills .
If you need a car to get to work , which the vast majority of employees do , you have to make the car payments .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ that can be squeezed is for food , and that ’ s what many poor families have to do .
A result is childhood malnutrition .
It sometimes manifests itself in obesity resulting from cheap , bad food , which in turn can promote diabetes .
It compromises the immune system .
Even more seriously , deprivation of nutrients such as iron during key periods of brain development , both before and after birth , can lead to lifelong cognitive impairment .
Studies show that children who suffered iron deficiency as infants , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ later , still suffer as adolescents , scoring lower in math , written expression , and selective recall .
Their teachers see them displaying “ more anxiety or depression , social problems , and attention problems , ” according to a National Academy of Sciences report .
So when federal and state governments are stingy with housing subsidies , as they always are , they are effectively , perhaps unwittingly , damaging children ’ s brain development and life opportunities .
The booming economy since the Great Recession of 2008 , amplified by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ benefits , has begun to raise hourly wages , but not significantly .
If median hourly wages in certain jobs are put next to the official poverty line—currently $ 25,750 a year for a family of four—it ’ s clear why so many people are in desperate trouble so soon after the economy ’ s lockdown .
Most poor families have only one wage earner , so assuming a full-time , 40-hour week , that person would have to be paid $ 12.38 an hour just to reach the poverty line .
As @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Bureau of Labor Statistics , the median hourly wage for ambulance drivers and assistants was just $ 12.45 ; for workers in retail sails , $ 11.37 to $ 12.14 ; for building cleaners , $ 12.68 ; for parking attendants , $ 12.11 ; and for fast-food and restaurant cooks and servers ( some of whom also get tips ) , $ 11.00 to $ 12.45 .
The lesson is to look beyond the unemployment rate and number of new jobs and examine how well those jobs pay .
The “ healthy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ wealth gap .
The most recent Federal Reserve figures , from before the pandemic , showed the top 10 percent of households with a median net worth of $ 2,387,500 and the bottom 10 percent with minus $ 962—that is , they owed more than they owned .
Adding assets and subtracting liabilities as of the fourth quarter of 2019 , the wealthiest 10 percent had 70 percent ( $ 78.5 trillion ) of the country ’ s total household net worth , and the bottom 50 percent had just 1.5 percent ( @ @ @ @ @ @ @ had miniscule debt , and the bottom half had miniscule financial assets alongside huge mortgage and consumer debt .
So , Janet Yellin was only partially right when she said that Americans had low debt burdens .
Consumer debt reached a record high in 2019 of more than $ 14 trillion , according to Experian , the credit agency .
But it was lower as a portion of income .
And defaults and late payments were low enough to drive the average FICO score—a person ’ s credit rating—to a high of 703 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the end of the Great Recession .
( A perfect score is 850 . )
Given the high credit card and other debt among the unwealthy , however , delinquency rates can now be expected to soar , pushing credit ratings down .
In that prospering economy , then , the glass was either half full or half empty , depending on whether you were looking from the top or from the bottom .
There was no need to exaggerate the hardships at the bottom , as some Democratic candidates did with one @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Elizabeth Warren , and Bernie Sanders all said last year that 40 percent of Americans could not come up with the money to pay a $ 400 emergency expense .
In fact , the contrary was the case , according to the Federal Reserve ’ s annual survey , “ Report on the Economic Well-Being of U.S.
Households.
” Asked to check all the ways they could pay for a $ 400 emergency , only 12 percent said they could not pay right now , 45 percent checked “ with the money currently @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , ” and 33 percent said they ’ d use a credit card and pay it off entirely at the next statement .
To a follow-up question , 85 percent said that making the unexpected payment would not prevent their paying other bills .
On the other hand , 25 percent told the Federal Reserve that they were just getting by or finding it difficult to get by .
That number is troubling enough , one bound to spike as stay-at-home orders continue .
The economy was not “ healthy ” for those @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will not be so for many more .
Improvements will come not from the stalemate of left and right , or from their manipulating statistics , but from a new ideology of practical realism that honors the complex facts , without distortion .
The free-market system is the one we have , and it can work for virtually everyone if everyone in government and business works for everyone .
Too idealistic ?
Naïve ?
Probably .

Last week, Janet Yellin, former chair of the Federal Reserve, gave an upbeat assessment of the pre-pandemic U.S. economy. “Very fortunately we started with an economy that was healthy before this hit,” she told the PBS NewsHour. “The banks were in good shape, the financial system was sound, Americans at least overall on average had relatively low debt burdens.”
But how “healthy” was that economy, really? How healthy is an economy whose workers have so little savings that they can’t make the rent after missing just a couple of paychecks? How healthy is an economy whose small businesses have so little cushion that they face almost instant obliteration when their cash flow is disrupted? How healthy is an economy where hourly employees performing many essential services earn so little that they have to go to work sick to keep their jobs? And how healthy is an economy whose housing costs force millions to cram into overcrowded homes in polluted slums replete with high stress, malnutrition, asthma, diabetes, heart problems, and other chronic disease?
“There’s nothing fundamentally wrong with our economy,” said Fed chairman Jerome Powell in March. It was “resilient,” he said in February. Yellin concurred, citing the old good news in her hope that the “economy will recover much more speedily than it did from any past downturn.”
Recover for whom? The experts look at conventional measurements, which painted a picture of prosperity before COVID-19. The unemployment rate last September hit a fifty-year low, at 3.5 percent, and the rate for people without a high school diploma dropped to a new low of 4.8 percent. The GDP had been growing within the range considered ideal—two to three percent—and Powell reported a rising willingness of employers to hire low-skilled workers and train them.
But alongside the bright figures on unemployment and job creation, consider a competing set of numbers from before the pandemic: The poverty-level wages for those who harvest our vegetables, cut our Christmas trees, wash our cars, cook and serve our food in restaurants, deliver groceries to our doors, clean our offices, and even drive our ambulances. The 14.3 million households (11.1 percent) uncertain that they could afford enough food, and the 5.6 million families (4.3 percent) where at least one person has had to cut back on eating during the year. The 14.3 percent of black children with asthma, double the rate in the population overall. The 20 percent of children living in crowded homes shared with other families or three generations of their own, and the 50 percent of urban children who have lived in those conditions by age nine.
A pernicious dynamic of financial stress is the unexpected link between housing costs and malnutrition. For many low-wage families without access to such government subsidies as Section 8 vouchers or affordable housing, rent can soak up 40 to 60 percent of income, which can leave too little for other necessities. You have to pay the rent. You have to pay the electricity, phone, and fuel bills. If you need a car to get to work, which the vast majority of employees do, you have to make the car payments. Those are not optional. The category that can be squeezed is for food, and that’s what many poor families have to do.
A result is childhood malnutrition. It sometimes manifests itself in obesity resulting from cheap, bad food, which in turn can promote diabetes. It compromises the immune system. Even more seriously, deprivation of nutrients such as iron during key periods of brain development, both before and after birth, can lead to lifelong cognitive impairment. Studies show that children who suffered iron deficiency as infants, even if they’re fed properly later, still suffer as adolescents, scoring lower in math, written expression, and selective recall. Their teachers see them displaying “more anxiety or depression, social problems, and attention problems,” according to a National Academy of Sciences report.
So when federal and state governments are stingy with housing subsidies, as they always are, they are effectively, perhaps unwittingly, damaging children’s brain development and life opportunities.
The booming economy since the Great Recession of 2008, amplified by Republican tax cuts that gave corporations huge benefits, has begun to raise hourly wages, but not significantly.
If median hourly wages in certain jobs are put next to the official poverty line—currently $25,750 a year for a family of four—it’s clear why so many people are in desperate trouble so soon after the economy’s lockdown. Most poor families have only one wage earner, so assuming a full-time, 40-hour week, that person would have to be paid $12.38 an hour just to reach the poverty line. As of May 2019, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the median hourly wage for ambulance drivers and assistants was just $12.45; for workers in retail sails, $11.37 to $12.14; for building cleaners, $12.68; for parking attendants, $12.11; and for fast-food and restaurant cooks and servers (some of whom also get tips), $11.00 to $12.45.
The lesson is to look beyond the unemployment rate and number of new jobs and examine how well those jobs pay. The “healthy” economy did little to narrow the wealth gap. The most recent Federal Reserve figures, from before the pandemic, showed the top 10 percent of households with a median net worth of $2,387,500 and the bottom 10 percent with minus $962—that is, they owed more than they owned.
Adding assets and subtracting liabilities as of the fourth quarter of 2019, the wealthiest 10 percent had 70 percent ($78.5 trillion) of the country’s total household net worth, and the bottom 50 percent had just 1.5 percent ($1.7 trillion). The top had miniscule debt, and the bottom half had miniscule financial assets alongside huge mortgage and consumer debt.
So, Janet Yellin was only partially right when she said that Americans had low debt burdens. Consumer debt reached a record high in 2019 of more than $14 trillion, according to Experian, the credit agency. But it was lower as a portion of income. And defaults and late payments were low enough to drive the average FICO score—a person’s credit rating—to a high of 703, up from 689 in 2010 at the end of the Great Recession. (A perfect score is 850.) Given the high credit card and other debt among the unwealthy, however, delinquency rates can now be expected to soar, pushing credit ratings down.
In that prospering economy, then, the glass was either half full or half empty, depending on whether you were looking from the top or from the bottom. There was no need to exaggerate the hardships at the bottom, as some Democratic candidates did with one misstated statistic.
Senators Kamala Harris, Elizabeth Warren, and Bernie Sanders all said last year that 40 percent of Americans could not come up with the money to pay a $400 emergency expense. In fact, the contrary was the case, according to the Federal Reserve’s annual survey, “Report on the Economic Well-Being of U.S. Households.”
Asked to check all the ways they could pay for a $400 emergency, only 12 percent said they could not pay right now, 45 percent checked “with the money currently in my checking/savings account or with cash,” and 33 percent said they’d use a credit card and pay it off entirely at the next statement. To a follow-up question, 85 percent said that making the unexpected payment would not prevent their paying other bills.
On the other hand, 25 percent told the Federal Reserve that they were just getting by or finding it difficult to get by. That number is troubling enough, one bound to spike as stay-at-home orders continue. The economy was not “healthy” for those folks in the first place, and will not be so for many more.
Improvements will come not from the stalemate of left and right, or from their manipulating statistics, but from a new ideology of practical realism that honors the complex facts, without distortion. The free-market system is the one we have, and it can work for virtually everyone if everyone in government and business works for everyone. Too idealistic? Naïve? Probably.


washingtonmonthly--2020-04-16--It’s the White Male Privilege, Stupid

It’s the White Male Privilege, Stupid

As a feminist , of course I was intrigued by an article titled , “ What Do Countries With the Best Coronavirus Responses Have in Common ?
Women Leaders.
” Writing for Forbes , Avivah Wittenberg-Cox summarized some of the actions taken by the following heads of state .
Among the first and the fastest responses was from Tsai Ing-wen in Taiwan .
Back in January , at the first sign of a new illness , she introduced 124 measures to block the spread without having to resort to the lockdowns that have become common elsewhere…Tsai managed what CNN has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ best ” responses , keeping the epidemic under control , still reporting only six deaths .
Jakobsdóttir is offering free coronavirus testing to everyone , ensuring that Iceland will become a case study in the spread and fatality rates of COVID-19 .
On the other hand , Solberg has now conducted two press conferences specifically designed to address questions and concerns about coronavirus from children .
During the first one , she told them that “ it ’ s OK to be scared.
” “ Because of the coronavirus , everyday life has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ children .
Anyone who can stay home should do it all the time .
Many children find this scary , ” she said .
“ I understand that well .
It ’ s OK to get a little scared when so many big things happen at once.
” Politicians in every country love to talk about the importance of children , but that is one of the few times you ’ ll find one actually putting those words into practice .
I couldn ’ t help but contrast that article with one by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Guy on Facebook Is an Epidemiologist Now.
” While epidemiologists , data scientists , and other public health experts struggle to understand the new virus and inform the public , another epidemic is spreading quickly : White guys on social media who suddenly have become infectious disease experts… This outbreak of ill-placed expertise is not unique to the pandemic .
In fact , the phenomenon of people with little knowledge acting as if they should be listened to has been studied and has some robust research behind it .
They are all living @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the Dunning-Kruger effect , a cognitive bias described back in 1999 by social psychologists David Dunning and Justin Kruger that explains why people overestimate their knowledge and abilities .
Lest anyone think that she is unfairly targeting men , Baptiste goes on to cite research which confirms that “ men often tend to have inflated opinions of themselves and often face little backlash for overconfidence.
” What are we to make of all of that ?
Certainly not that men are incapable of providing effective leadership during a pandemic or that there @ @ @ @ @ @ @ themselves .
We ’ ve all seen too many examples of the exceptions to swallow the idea that these traits are controlled by the number of x and y chromosomes .
Business psychologists Tomas Chamorro-Premuzic and Cindy Gallop provide some answers in an article titled , “ 7 Leadership Lessons Men Can Learn From Women ” ( emphasis mine ) .
Although there is a great deal of public interest in ensuring more women become leaders , thereby reversing their under-representation in the ranks of power , too many suggested solutions are founded @ @ @ @ @ @ @ emulate men .
The thinking is : “ If men have most of the top roles , they must be doing something right , so why not get women to act like them ?
” But this logic fails to account for the relatively dismal performance of most leaders — who are overwhelmingly male .
As we have argued before , the real problem is not a lack of competent females ; it is too few obstacles for incompetent males , which explains the surplus of overconfident , narcissistic , and unethical people @ @ @ @ @ @ @ discuss is particularly relevant .
Don ’ t lean in when you ’ ve got nothing to lean in about…Since there has never been a strong correlation between leaning in and being good at something — especially for men —a better option would be to stop falling for people who lean in when they lack the talents to back it up .
In a logical world , we would promote people into leadership roles when they are competent rather than confident , vetting them for their expertise , track record , and relevant @ @ @ @ @ @ @ curiosity , empathy , integrity , and coachability ) .
No one demonstrates the fact that overconfident , narcissistic , and unethical men face too few obstacles than Donald Trump .
But as Wittenberg-Cox notes , he ’ s not the only one .
After discussing the effective leadership of the seven women heads of state , she writes this .
What this all comes down to is that the biggest obstacle to meritocracy is white male privilege .
We all buy into it when we fall for the bombastic and fail to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , track record , and relevant leadership skills .
That kind of vetting would not only result in more women in leadership roles , it would install the kind of obstacles that are needed to stop men like Donald Trump from gaining power and encourage more effective male leadership .

As a feminist, of course I was intrigued by an article titled, “What Do Countries With the Best Coronavirus Responses Have in Common? Women Leaders.” Writing for Forbes, Avivah Wittenberg-Cox summarized some of the actions taken by the following heads of state.
For example:
Among the first and the fastest responses was from Tsai Ing-wen in Taiwan. Back in January, at the first sign of a new illness, she introduced 124 measures to block the spread without having to resort to the lockdowns that have become common elsewhere…Tsai managed what CNN has called “ among the world’s best ” responses, keeping the epidemic under control, still reporting only six deaths.
Jakobsdóttir is offering free coronavirus testing to everyone, ensuring that Iceland will become a case study in the spread and fatality rates of COVID-19. On the other hand, Solberg has now conducted two press conferences specifically designed to address questions and concerns about coronavirus from children. During the first one, she told them that “it’s OK to be scared.”
“Because of the coronavirus, everyday life has become very different for both adults and children. Anyone who can stay home should do it all the time. Many children find this scary,” she said. “I understand that well. It’s OK to get a little scared when so many big things happen at once.”
Politicians in every country love to talk about the importance of children, but that is one of the few times you’ll find one actually putting those words into practice.
I couldn’t help but contrast that article with one by Natalie Baptiste titled, “Every White Guy on Facebook Is an Epidemiologist Now.”
While epidemiologists, data scientists, and other public health experts struggle to understand the new virus and inform the public, another epidemic is spreading quickly: White guys on social media who suddenly have become infectious disease experts… This outbreak of ill-placed expertise is not unique to the pandemic. In fact, the phenomenon of people with little knowledge acting as if they should be listened to has been studied and has some robust research behind it. They are all living, tweeting, opining, over-sharing examples of the Dunning-Kruger effect, a cognitive bias described back in 1999 by social psychologists David Dunning and Justin Kruger that explains why people overestimate their knowledge and abilities.
Lest anyone think that she is unfairly targeting men, Baptiste goes on to cite research which confirms that “men often tend to have inflated opinions of themselves and often face little backlash for overconfidence.”
What are we to make of all of that? Certainly not that men are incapable of providing effective leadership during a pandemic or that there are no women with over-inflated opinions of themselves. We’ve all seen too many examples of the exceptions to swallow the idea that these traits are controlled by the number of x and y chromosomes.
Business psychologists Tomas Chamorro-Premuzic and Cindy Gallop provide some answers in an article titled, “7 Leadership Lessons Men Can Learn From Women” (emphasis mine).
Although there is a great deal of public interest in ensuring more women become leaders, thereby reversing their under-representation in the ranks of power, too many suggested solutions are founded on the misconception that women ought to emulate men. The thinking is: “If men have most of the top roles, they must be doing something right, so why not get women to act like them?” But this logic fails to account for the relatively dismal performance of most leaders — who are overwhelmingly male. As we have argued before, the real problem is not a lack of competent females; it is too few obstacles for incompetent males, which explains the surplus of overconfident, narcissistic, and unethical people in charge.
The first lesson they discuss is particularly relevant.
Don’t lean in when you’ve got nothing to lean in about…Since there has never been a strong correlation between leaning in and being good at something — especially for men —a better option would be to stop falling for people who lean in when they lack the talents to back it up. In a logical world, we would promote people into leadership roles when they are competent rather than confident, vetting them for their expertise, track record, and relevant leadership competencies (e.g., intelligence, curiosity, empathy, integrity, and coachability).
No one demonstrates the fact that overconfident, narcissistic, and unethical men face too few obstacles than Donald Trump. But as Wittenberg-Cox notes, he’s not the only one. After discussing the effective leadership of the seven women heads of state, she writes this.
Now, compare these leaders and stories with the strongmen using the crisis to accelerate a terrifying trifecta of authoritarianism: blame-“others”, capture-the-judiciary, demonize-the-journalists, and blanket their country in I-will-never-retire darkness (Trump, Bolsonaro, Obrador, Modi, Duterte, Orban, Putin, Netanyahu…).
What this all comes down to is that the biggest obstacle to meritocracy is white male privilege. We all buy into it when we fall for the bombastic and fail to vet potential leaders based on their expertise, track record, and relevant leadership skills. That kind of vetting would not only result in more women in leadership roles, it would install the kind of obstacles that are needed to stop men like Donald Trump from gaining power and encourage more effective male leadership.


washingtonmonthly--2020-04-17--Trump Refuses to Do the One Thing That Is Necessary to Reopen the Economy

I recently wrote that we have no idea how many coronavirus cases there are in the U.S. because testing has been extremely limited .
The Biden campaign just released a video that makes the same point .
As the president obsesses about reopening the economy , this lack of testing becomes even more serious .
Without a comprehensive testing initiative , it is impossible to track the path and penetration of the coronavirus , something that must be done in order to assure Americans that it is safe to go back to work .
It isn ’ t just public @ @ @ @ @ @ @ about reopening the economy prior to adequate testing .
We ’ re hearing the same thing from both governors and business leaders .
On Wednesday , Trump held calls with business leaders aimed at figuring out how to scale back the distancing measures .
Over and over , the executives made the same request : better testing .
More testing .
And testing that covers both of our hypotheticals , tests to track the spread of the coronavirus in the community and tests that allow businesses to protect their workforces .
In typical @ @ @ @ @ @ @ taking any responsibility .
“ We want the states to administer these tests , for the most part , ” Trump said .
“ But we ’ re standing behind them .
We have great tests…We have the best tests of any country in the world…We want them to do it , ” Trump said .
As a result , Senate Democrats are stepping up to the plate .
Senate Democratic leadership rolled out a proposal on Wednesday to ramp up nationwide coronavirus testing , which public health officials have said will be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The plan — unveiled by Sen. Patty Murray ( D-Wash. ) , Senate Minority Leader Charles Schumer ( D-N.Y. ) and other members of leadership — would provide $ 30 billion in emergency funding to increase testing and build out a structure for administering tests across the country… Democrats are also recommending Congress establish a $ 4.5 billion per year fund for public health infrastructure that could be used to strengthen the ability to increase testing and the ability to trace who an infected individual has been in contact with .
What we @ @ @ @ @ @ @ president who refuses to take responsibility , Republican leadership that remains silent , and Democrats doing what is necessary to protect the health of the American people .

I recently wrote that we have no idea how many coronavirus cases there are in the U.S. because testing has been extremely limited. The Biden campaign just released a video that makes the same point.
As the president obsesses about reopening the economy, this lack of testing becomes even more serious. Without a comprehensive testing initiative, it is impossible to track the path and penetration of the coronavirus, something that must be done in order to assure Americans that it is safe to go back to work.
It isn’t just public health experts that are sounding the alarm about reopening the economy prior to adequate testing. We’re hearing the same thing from both governors and business leaders.
On Wednesday, Trump held calls with business leaders aimed at figuring out how to scale back the distancing measures. Over and over, the executives made the same request: better testing. More testing. And testing that covers both of our hypotheticals, tests to track the spread of the coronavirus in the community and tests that allow businesses to protect their workforces.
In typical Trump fashion, the president passed on taking any responsibility.
“We want the states to administer these tests, for the most part,” Trump said. “But we’re standing behind them. We have great tests…We have the best tests of any country in the world…We want them to do it,” Trump said. As a result, Senate Democrats are stepping up to the plate. Senate Democratic leadership rolled out a proposal on Wednesday to ramp up nationwide coronavirus testing, which public health officials have said will be key to lifting social distancing measures. The plan — unveiled by Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.), Senate Minority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) and other members of leadership — would provide $30 billion in emergency funding to increase testing and build out a structure for administering tests across the country… Democrats are also recommending Congress establish a $4.5 billion per year fund for public health infrastructure that could be used to strengthen the ability to increase testing and the ability to trace who an infected individual has been in contact with. What we have is yet another example of a president who refuses to take responsibility, Republican leadership that remains silent, and Democrats doing what is necessary to protect the health of the American people.


washingtonmonthly--2020-04-17--How Democrats Can Put Bloomberg’s Money to Good Use

When former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg abandoned his plan to form a Super PAC to support the Democratic Party ’ s eventual nominee , it might have seemed like he had crumpled up and thrown out his pledge to help make Donald Trump a one-term president .
After all , with a net worth north of $ 60 billion , Bloomberg could have continued to irritate his fellow New Yorker with a flood of online , radio , and television ads .
Instead , he said he will give $ 18 million to the Democratic National Committee .
That @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , it offers Democrats the means to pursue a critical path to the White House .
Since federal regulations prohibit Super PACs from coordinating with campaigns , one benefit of this financial transfer is the ability of Bloomberg ’ s now-defunct campaign to share information with the Biden team .
Bloomberg will also hand off his campaign offices to Democrats in six states that Trump won in 2016 : Wisconsin , Michigan , Pennsylvania , Arizona , Florida , and North Carolina .
DNC officials last month added Georgia and Texas to their @ @ @ @ @ @ @ also includes Ohio , New Hampshire , Nevada , and Virginia .
Yet while DNC Chair Tom Perez insisted that the party “ is making historic , early investments to build strong , multiple pathways for our eventual nominee to win , ” there is an oversight on their Electoral College map : Nebraska ’ s second congressional district .
Bloomberg ’ s donation , however , could help .
Nebraska allocates its five electoral votes by congressional district .
The winner of the statewide popular vote receives two votes , while each @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ( Maine is the only other state that is run this way . )
Voter data and recent election results indicate that Nebraska ’ s Second District ( NE-2 ) , which encompasses Omaha and its suburbs , is not as reliable a Republican district as it once was .
In fact , The Cook Political Report classifies it as a toss-up alongside each of the states in which Democrats are taking over Bloomberg ’ s old offices .
Sabato ’ s Crystal Ball , Christopher Newport University ’ s Wason Center for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ chief polling analyst all rate it the same .
NE-2 is like most metropolitan areas ; it trends Democratic in its urban precincts and leans more Republican the further out you get from the city .
The district includes all of Omaha ’ s Douglas County and part of Sarpy County to the south .
Between the 2016 presidential election and the 2018 midterms , Douglas County saw a drop of nearly 800 registered Republicans and a gain of 1,660 Democrats .
Unaffiliated voters increased over the same period by more than 5,000 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ meanwhile , approximately 400 more Republicans were added to the rolls than Democrats ; at the same time , independents increased by more than 2,000 .
Under the Electoral College , these margins matter .
In 2018 , Republican Congressman Don Bacon successfully fought off Democratic challenger Kara Eastman by just under 5,000 votes .
In 2016 , Bacon won the House seat from a Democratic incumbent by fewer than 3,500 votes .
The difference was about the same in 2008 when Barack Obama became the first Democrat to carry NE-2 since Lyndon @ @ @ @ @ @ @ mistaken to feel discouraged by Eastman ’ s loss .
A self-described progressive , she fully embraced Medicare for All , tuition-free college and increased firearm regulations .
It was moderate Democrats who turned most red seats blue , with the few progressive pickups by Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and others having been pretty much settled upon the conclusion of their primaries .
With Joe Biden rather than Bernie Sanders at the top of the ticket , moderate Democrats and independents in a tightly contested district like Omaha ’ s will surely feel more comfortable @ @ @ @ @ @ @ voter data from the district reveals that , in line with national trends , older voters are more reliable voters .
Primary exit poll data from this election cycle shows a decisive edge for Biden among this demographic .
The modest Republican voter registration gains in Sarpy County are far from insurmountable .
In fact , Douglas County ’ s Hispanic population presents an opportunity for Biden , not only because they tend to vote Democratic or because more Hispanics live in or around Omaha than anywhere else in the state , but @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in Nebraska that have a higher number of Hispanics have historically had lower turnout .
The good news is , if the state fully embraces vote by mail to mitigate the COVID-19 crisis , there may be a boost in turnout among low-propensity voters , including young people and minorities .
Additionally , those who have multiple jobs or a long commute and therefore aren ’ t able to set aside enough time to vote during a weekday could participate in greater numbers .
All in all , NE-2 is worth pursuing simply @ @ @ @ @ @ @ electoral vote—and the data shows that it ’ s in reach .
To fully grasp the district ’ s importance , consider the potential election outcomes if only the six swing states in which Bloomberg is handing off his campaign offices vote either blue or red .
There are three scenarios in which the Omaha metropolitan area would decide the entire race : None of these six outcomes are far-fetched , yet the lack of attention thus far given to NE-2 seems to indicate that DNC leaders haven ’ t fully realized their @ @ @ @ @ @ @ invest in Texas and Georgia , where Trump won by more than 800,000 and 200,000 votes , respectively , then they should also make a play at Omaha , where Trump edged out Clinton by only 6,500 votes .
Biden may not have the desire to open three campaign offices in Omaha , like Obama did in 2008 , but using a portion of Bloomberg ’ s money for just one and some advertising there is not too much to ask .
In the end , think of how grueling it would be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ all because Biden couldn ’ t win a small district in Nebraska .
Some may argue that by forcing the president to defend the district , a more fired up , pro-Trump crowd would turn up at the polls , effectively blunting any Democratic gains .
But this is the same fearful thinking that got the Clinton campaign into trouble in the Rust Belt and upper Midwest four years ago .
In fact , filmmaker Michael Moore said during an MSNBC appearance in February that a campaign official explained to him why Michiganders @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to support the former secretary of state .
“ We decided that it wouldn ’ t be a good idea for Trump voters to see a lot of ‘ Hillary ’ signs on the road or on the street , ’ ” Moore recalled being told , “ because it would remind them every day that they had to get out there and vote.
” Clinton , of course , lost Michigan by fewer than 11,000 votes .
In a district as tantalizingly close as Nebraska ’ s second , a rigorous mobilizing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ make all the difference .
The Democrats should get to work there .

When former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg abandoned his plan to form a Super PAC to support the Democratic Party’s eventual nominee, it might have seemed like he had crumpled up and thrown out his pledge to help make Donald Trump a one-term president. After all, with a net worth north of $60 billion, Bloomberg could have continued to irritate his fellow New Yorker with a flood of online, radio, and television ads. Instead, he said he will give $18 million to the Democratic National Committee. That’s not insignificant. In fact, it offers Democrats the means to pursue a critical path to the White House.
Since federal regulations prohibit Super PACs from coordinating with campaigns, one benefit of this financial transfer is the ability of Bloomberg’s now-defunct campaign to share information with the Biden team. Bloomberg will also hand off his campaign offices to Democrats in six states that Trump won in 2016: Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Florida, and North Carolina. DNC officials last month added Georgia and Texas to their list of twelve battleground targets, which also includes Ohio, New Hampshire, Nevada, and Virginia. Yet while DNC Chair Tom Perez insisted that the party “is making historic, early investments to build strong, multiple pathways for our eventual nominee to win,” there is an oversight on their Electoral College map: Nebraska’s second congressional district. Bloomberg’s donation, however, could help.
Nebraska allocates its five electoral votes by congressional district. The winner of the statewide popular vote receives two votes, while each of its three districts awards one. (Maine is the only other state that is run this way.) Voter data and recent election results indicate that Nebraska’s Second District (NE-2), which encompasses Omaha and its suburbs, is not as reliable a Republican district as it once was. In fact, The Cook Political Report classifies it as a toss-up alongside each of the states in which Democrats are taking over Bloomberg’s old offices. Sabato’s Crystal Ball, Christopher Newport University’s Wason Center for Public Policy, and Politico’s chief polling analyst all rate it the same.
NE-2 is like most metropolitan areas; it trends Democratic in its urban precincts and leans more Republican the further out you get from the city. The district includes all of Omaha’s Douglas County and part of Sarpy County to the south. Between the 2016 presidential election and the 2018 midterms, Douglas County saw a drop of nearly 800 registered Republicans and a gain of 1,660 Democrats. Unaffiliated voters increased over the same period by more than 5,000. In more GOP-friendly Sarpy County, meanwhile, approximately 400 more Republicans were added to the rolls than Democrats; at the same time, independents increased by more than 2,000.
Under the Electoral College, these margins matter. In 2018, Republican Congressman Don Bacon successfully fought off Democratic challenger Kara Eastman by just under 5,000 votes. In 2016, Bacon won the House seat from a Democratic incumbent by fewer than 3,500 votes. The difference was about the same in 2008 when Barack Obama became the first Democrat to carry NE-2 since Lyndon Johnson in 1964.
Democrats would be mistaken to feel discouraged by Eastman’s loss. A self-described progressive, she fully embraced Medicare for All, tuition-free college and increased firearm regulations. It was moderate Democrats who turned most red seats blue, with the few progressive pickups by Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and others having been pretty much settled upon the conclusion of their primaries.
With Joe Biden rather than Bernie Sanders at the top of the ticket, moderate Democrats and independents in a tightly contested district like Omaha’s will surely feel more comfortable heading to the polls. Additionally, voter data from the district reveals that, in line with national trends, older voters are more reliable voters. Primary exit poll data from this election cycle shows a decisive edge for Biden among this demographic.
The modest Republican voter registration gains in Sarpy County are far from insurmountable. In fact, Douglas County’s Hispanic population presents an opportunity for Biden, not only because they tend to vote Democratic or because more Hispanics live in or around Omaha than anywhere else in the state, but also in light of how the counties in Nebraska that have a higher number of Hispanics have historically had lower turnout. The good news is, if the state fully embraces vote by mail to mitigate the COVID-19 crisis, there may be a boost in turnout among low-propensity voters, including young people and minorities. Additionally, those who have multiple jobs or a long commute and therefore aren’t able to set aside enough time to vote during a weekday could participate in greater numbers.
All in all, NE-2 is worth pursuing simply because of the value of its single electoral vote—and the data shows that it’s in reach.
To fully grasp the district’s importance, consider the potential election outcomes if only the six swing states in which Bloomberg is handing off his campaign offices vote either blue or red. There are three scenarios in which the Omaha metropolitan area would decide the entire race:
1) If the 2016 result holds except Biden wins Michigan and Pennsylvania, then Trump squeaks out a second term, 270-268; if NE-2 instead flips to blue, then the race is a tie. 2) If the 2016 result holds except Biden wins Arizona, North Carolina, and Wisconsin, then Trump wins by two electoral votes; if NE-2 instead flips to blue, then the race is a tie. 3) If the 2016 result holds except Biden wins Arizona, Michigan, and Wisconsin, then the race is a tie; if NE-2 flips to blue, then Biden reaches the 270 electoral vote threshold.
None of these six outcomes are far-fetched, yet the lack of attention thus far given to NE-2 seems to indicate that DNC leaders haven’t fully realized their possibility.
If they are going to invest in Texas and Georgia, where Trump won by more than 800,000 and 200,000 votes, respectively, then they should also make a play at Omaha, where Trump edged out Clinton by only 6,500 votes. Biden may not have the desire to open three campaign offices in Omaha, like Obama did in 2008, but using a portion of Bloomberg’s money for just one and some advertising there is not too much to ask. In the end, think of how grueling it would be to watch a second Trump inaugural address all because Biden couldn’t win a small district in Nebraska.
Some may argue that by forcing the president to defend the district, a more fired up, pro-Trump crowd would turn up at the polls, effectively blunting any Democratic gains. But this is the same fearful thinking that got the Clinton campaign into trouble in the Rust Belt and upper Midwest four years ago. In fact, filmmaker Michael Moore said during an MSNBC appearance in February that a campaign official explained to him why Michiganders couldn’t even buy yard signs to support the former secretary of state. “We decided that it wouldn’t be a good idea for Trump voters to see a lot of ‘Hillary’ signs on the road or on the street,’” Moore recalled being told,
“because it would remind them every day that they had to get out there and vote.”
Clinton, of course, lost Michigan by fewer than 11,000 votes. In a district as tantalizingly close as Nebraska’s second, a rigorous mobilizing campaign and a few million bucks could make all the difference. The Democrats should get to work there.


washingtonmonthly--2020-04-17--Is There a Soul of America Worth Reclaiming?

The Trump campaign has launched a new theme on social media that makes the Willie Horton ad of 1988 look like child ’ s play .
Here are a couple of examples .
That is a good indication of what we can expect from Trump over the next few months .
I am reminded of something one of the president ’ s advisors told Maggie Haberman : “ The president , whose own approval ratings have stayed upside down , needs voters to feel negatively not just about his opponents but about longstanding institutions.
” Neither the president nor his @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s approval ratings .
They simply want to gin up fear and hatred for their opponents .
As Philip Bump documented , that strategy worked in 2016 .
As it turns out , while people who liked Trump and didn ’ t like Clinton voted heavily for Trump ( as you ’ d expect ) , the current president also had an edge among people who disliked both him and Clinton .
He won those voters by 17 points nationally — and by margins in the closest states that were likely enough to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ needed… By the numbers , exit polls had Trump leading Clinton among those who didn ’ t like either candidate by 37 points in Wisconsin , 25 points in Pennsylvania and 21 points in Michigan .
Of course , Trump got a huge assist with those voters from former FBI Director James Comey , Russia , Sanders supporters , and the media in painting Clinton as “ corrupt.
” There has been a concerted effort to do the same thing with Biden by linking him to his son Hunter Biden ’ s activities @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hold the way the smears against Clinton did in 2016 .
According to a recent Quinnipiac poll , Biden leads Trump among voters who dislike both candidates by 32 percent .
Jon Favreau once said that “ every election is a competition between two stories about America.
” Trump ’ s story this year will be similar to the one he told in 2016 .
While it is important for Democrats to point out the overwhelming failures of the Trump administration and call out their lies , it is also important to tell @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Biden is doing that by talking about the need to reclaim the soul of America .
Telling a compelling story always starts with identifying the challenge .
It then links the current struggle to those we have overcome in the past .
Finally , it identifies our strength to overcome .
Especially at this moment in our country ’ s history , it feels like it could be a risk to put our faith in the American people .
But I am reminded of something Ta-Nehisi Coates wrote shortly after Barack Obama ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Obama and the civil rights leaders of old are joined — in a shocking , almost certifiable faith in humanity , something that subsequent generations lost .
The Rev .
Martin Luther King Jr. may have led African Americans out of segregation , and he may have cured incalculable numbers of white racists , but more than all that , he believed that the lion ’ s share of the population of this country would not support the rights of thugs to pummel people who just wanted to cross a bridge .
King @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I was a younger , more callow man , that belief made me suck my teeth .
I saw it as weakness and cowardice , a lack of faith in his own .
But it was the opposite .
King ’ s belief in white people was the ultimate show of strength : He was willing to give his life on a bet that they were no different from the people who lived next door .
The truth is that an America that buys into Trump ’ s vision of hate and division @ @ @ @ @ @ @ if there is a soul of America that is still dedicated to the struggle to perfect our union , it will be on the ballot this November .

The Trump campaign has launched a new theme on social media that makes the Willie Horton ad of 1988 look like child’s play. Here are a couple of examples.
That is a good indication of what we can expect from Trump over the next few months. I am reminded of something one of the president’s advisors told Maggie Haberman: “The president, whose own approval ratings have stayed upside down, needs voters to feel negatively not just about his opponents but about longstanding institutions.” Neither the president nor his advisors are interested in raising Trump’s approval ratings. They simply want to gin up fear and hatred for their opponents.
As Philip Bump documented, that strategy worked in 2016.
As it turns out, while people who liked Trump and didn’t like Clinton voted heavily for Trump (as you’d expect), the current president also had an edge among people who disliked both him and Clinton. He won those voters by 17 points nationally — and by margins in the closest states that were likely enough to hand him the electoral college victory he needed… By the numbers, exit polls had Trump leading Clinton among those who didn’t like either candidate by 37 points in Wisconsin, 25 points in Pennsylvania and 21 points in Michigan.
Of course, Trump got a huge assist with those voters from former FBI Director James Comey, Russia, Sanders supporters, and the media in painting Clinton as “corrupt.” There has been a concerted effort to do the same thing with Biden by linking him to his son Hunter Biden’s activities, but that hasn’t taken hold the way the smears against Clinton did in 2016. According to a recent Quinnipiac poll, Biden leads Trump among voters who dislike both candidates by 32 percent.
Jon Favreau once said that “every election is a competition between two stories about America.” Trump’s story this year will be similar to the one he told in 2016.
He is a celebrity strongman who will single-handedly save the country from an establishment that is too weak, stupid, corrupt, and politically correct to let us blame the real source of our problems—Muslims and Mexicans and Black Lives Matter protesters; the media, business, and political elites from both parties.
While it is important for Democrats to point out the overwhelming failures of the Trump administration and call out their lies, it is also important to tell a competing story of America. Joe Biden is doing that by talking about the need to reclaim the soul of America. Telling a compelling story always starts with identifying the challenge.
It then links the current struggle to those we have overcome in the past.
Finally, it identifies our strength to overcome.
Especially at this moment in our country’s history, it feels like it could be a risk to put our faith in the American people. But I am reminded of something Ta-Nehisi Coates wrote shortly after Barack Obama’s election.
Here is where Barack Obama and the civil rights leaders of old are joined — in a shocking, almost certifiable faith in humanity, something that subsequent generations lost. The Rev. Martin Luther King Jr. may have led African Americans out of segregation, and he may have cured incalculable numbers of white racists, but more than all that, he believed that the lion’s share of the population of this country would not support the rights of thugs to pummel people who just wanted to cross a bridge. King believed in white people, and when I was a younger, more callow man, that belief made me suck my teeth. I saw it as weakness and cowardice, a lack of faith in his own. But it was the opposite. King’s belief in white people was the ultimate show of strength: He was willing to give his life on a bet that they were no different from the people who lived next door.
The truth is that an America that buys into Trump’s vision of hate and division might not be worth saving. But if there is a soul of America that is still dedicated to the struggle to perfect our union, it will be on the ballot this November.


washingtonmonthly--2020-04-17--Joe Biden the Uniter

Joe Biden the Uniter

In 2016 , Donald Trump won 68.5 percent of the vote in West Virginia to Hillary Clinton ’ s 26.4 percent .
It was Trump ’ s biggest margin of victory in the country .
Yet , on the very same day , Jim Justice was elected as governor with a 49 percent plurality .
He ran as a Democrat but switched his party affiliation to Republican on August 3 , 2017 .
Democrats can still win statewide races in West Virginia , but it ’ s a lot more comfortable to be allied with the president .
Senator Joe @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Robert Byrd ’ s vacant seat in 2010 .
He ’ s clearly popular with his constituents , but he has to walk a fine line .
In 2012 , he declined to endorse Barack Obama ’ s reelection campaign .
In 2016 , he came close to un-endorsing Hillary Clinton over comments she made about the future of the coal industry .
After Trump won his state with nearly 70 percent of the vote , there was some talk in 2017 of Manchin joining his administration , and many have doubted that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in 2020 .
If the progressive left is unenthusiastic about Joe Biden , that hasn ’ t prevented Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren from giving him their full-throated stamp of approval .
And he can now expect to get the same from Joe Manchin : Sen. Joe Manchin will endorse Joe Biden for president , putting to bed any thought that he might not support the Democratic presidential nominee this time around .
The conservative West Virginia Democrat said in an interview on Thursday that he ’ s working with Biden , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will come in tandem with a plan to help shield his state from job loss… …Manchin has been talking to the Biden campaign since the former vice president won South Carolina ’ s primary , and said he feels comfortable with Biden and his outreach to Appalachia , where energy jobs are a key part of the economy and politics .
Asked on Thursday whether he ’ d endorse Biden , Manchin replied : “ I will , absolutely.
” “ I ’ m just trying to make sure that we ’ re @ @ @ @ @ @ @ said .
“ I ’ ve been working and talking to different people .
We ’ re definitely getting there .
You just can ’ t leave people behind that did the heavy lifting and that ’ s worked hard , whether it ’ s producing coal or producing energy for this country .
They just need an opportunity to live their lives and have that opportunity .
And I think Joe Biden understands that.
” Biden won the Democratic primaries based largely on the perception that he was the most “ electable @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sure people always had a clear picture of what they meant by that term or why they felt that Biden had an advantage over his competitors .
But one thing he ’ s already putting on display is an ability to almost effortlessly bring together the Democratic Party after a rough primary season .
You can see that Manchin is looking to get something in return for his endorsement .
In this , he is no different from Bernie Sanders or any of the other candidates .
But the important thing is that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ without it costing him his career .
He didn ’ t feel that way when he shared a ballot with Obama in 2012 as he sought a full six-year term in the U.S. Senate , and he was probably right .
If he had been on the ticket in 2016 , he almost surely would have un-endorsed Clinton .
It ’ s highly doubtful that he would have endorsed Bernie Sanders if he become the party ’ s nominee .
One of the keys to Biden ’ s appeal as a candidate is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the country where he ’ s toxic .
In this , he is partially advantaged simply by not being a woman or a racial minority .
His Catholicism is less of a political liability than Mitt Romney ’ s Mormanism or Sander ’ s secular Judaism .
But it ’ s not so much his identity , nor is it his ideology , that makes Biden so widely acceptable .
It ’ s really just his personality and his way of going about things .
He doesn ’ t make enemies and he @ @ @ @ @ @ @ people with his rhetoric .
Most of the people who will vote against Joe Biden would vote against any Democrat , and that includes most of the people carping about him on the left .
This is Biden ’ s great electoral strength , but it has its downsides .
He has trouble arousing enthusiasm , donations , and volunteers because he doesn ’ t fire people up with red meat .
His policies may not be offensive , but they ’ re also lacking ambition , and this has left the struggling @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , he ’ s running to the left of both Obama and Clinton , but this can get lost because he undersells his progressivism with a mind to winning crossover votes in the general election .
His comparative electability has probably been oversold , as most polls have shown him performing about the same or only modestly better against Trump as Sanders .
But there ’ s little doubt that he ’ s more of a uniter .
He ’ s uniting the party , and he ’ ll have better prospects of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I can think of right now .

In 2016, Donald Trump won 68.5 percent of the vote in West Virginia to Hillary Clinton’s 26.4 percent. It was Trump’s biggest margin of victory in the country. Yet, on the very same day, Jim Justice was elected as governor with a 49 percent plurality. He ran as a Democrat but switched his party affiliation to Republican on August 3, 2017. Democrats can still win statewide races in West Virginia, but it’s a lot more comfortable to be allied with the president.
Senator Joe Manchin was twice elected governor before winning Robert Byrd’s vacant seat in 2010. He’s clearly popular with his constituents, but he has to walk a fine line. In 2012, he declined to endorse Barack Obama’s reelection campaign. In 2016, he came close to un-endorsing Hillary Clinton over comments she made about the future of the coal industry. After Trump won his state with nearly 70 percent of the vote, there was some talk in 2017 of Manchin joining his administration, and many have doubted that he would endorse the Democratic presidential nominee in 2020.
If the progressive left is unenthusiastic about Joe Biden, that hasn’t prevented Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren from giving him their full-throated stamp of approval. And he can now expect to get the same from Joe Manchin:
Sen. Joe Manchin will endorse Joe Biden for president, putting to bed any thought that he might not support the Democratic presidential nominee this time around. The conservative West Virginia Democrat said in an interview on Thursday that he’s working with Biden, the presumptive nominee, on an endorsement that will come in tandem with a plan to help shield his state from job loss… …Manchin has been talking to the Biden campaign since the former vice president won South Carolina’s primary, and said he feels comfortable with Biden and his outreach to Appalachia, where energy jobs are a key part of the economy and politics. Asked on Thursday whether he’d endorse Biden, Manchin replied: “I will, absolutely.” “I’m just trying to make sure that we’re working through a plan,” he said. “I’ve been working and talking to different people. We’re definitely getting there. You just can’t leave people behind that did the heavy lifting and that’s worked hard, whether it’s producing coal or producing energy for this country. They just need an opportunity to live their lives and have that opportunity. And I think Joe Biden understands that.”
Biden won the Democratic primaries based largely on the perception that he was the most “electable” candidate. I’m not sure people always had a clear picture of what they meant by that term or why they felt that Biden had an advantage over his competitors. But one thing he’s already putting on display is an ability to almost effortlessly bring together the Democratic Party after a rough primary season.
You can see that Manchin is looking to get something in return for his endorsement. In this, he is no different from Bernie Sanders or any of the other candidates. But the important thing is that Manchin feels he can vocally support Biden without it costing him his career. He didn’t feel that way when he shared a ballot with Obama in 2012 as he sought a full six-year term in the U.S. Senate, and he was probably right. If he had been on the ticket in 2016, he almost surely would have un-endorsed Clinton. It’s highly doubtful that he would have endorsed Bernie Sanders if he become the party’s nominee.
One of the keys to Biden’s appeal as a candidate is precisely that there are no areas of the country where he’s toxic. In this, he is partially advantaged simply by not being a woman or a racial minority. His Catholicism is less of a political liability than Mitt Romney’s Mormanism or Sander’s secular Judaism. But it’s not so much his identity, nor is it his ideology, that makes Biden so widely acceptable. It’s really just his personality and his way of going about things. He doesn’t make enemies and he doesn’t alienate a lot of people with his rhetoric. Most of the people who will vote against Joe Biden would vote against any Democrat, and that includes most of the people carping about him on the left.
This is Biden’s great electoral strength, but it has its downsides. He has trouble arousing enthusiasm, donations, and volunteers because he doesn’t fire people up with red meat. His policies may not be offensive, but they’re also lacking ambition, and this has left the struggling younger generations feeling cold. In truth, he’s running to the left of both Obama and Clinton, but this can get lost because he undersells his progressivism with a mind to winning crossover votes in the general election.
His comparative electability has probably been oversold, as most polls have shown him performing about the same or only modestly better against Trump as Sanders. But there’s little doubt that he’s more of a uniter. He’s uniting the party, and he’ll have better prospects of uniting the country than any other politician I can think of right now.