washingtonmonthly--2020-05-28--When White Guys Struggle With What It Means to Be Manly

According to Gabriel Sherman , this is how the president is responding to the prospect of losing the election in November .
As he headed into Memorial Day weekend , Donald Trump complained that he was COVID-19 ’ s biggest victim .
“ He was just in a fucking rage , ” said a person who spoke with Trump late last week .
“ He was saying , ‘ This is so unfair to me !
Everything was going great .
We were cruising to reelection !
” Even as the death toll neared 100,000 and unemployment ranks swelled to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ t see the pandemic as anything other than something that had happened to him .
“ The problem is he has no empathy , ” the adviser said .
The fact that Trump is incapable of empathy is not news to those of us who have been paying attention .
But due to his mishandling of the coronavirus crisis , more and more Americans are beginning to notice .
Since members of his campaign staff can ’ t simply inject empathy into a malignant narcissist , they decided to take a different approach @ @ @ @ @ @ @ nice guys don ’ t cut it.
” Senator Lindsey Graham had a similar message , saying that “ Joe Biden ’ s a nice man , but we don ’ t need that .
We need a strong man , and President Trump is a strong man ” ( perhaps he meant strongman ) .
That comes on the heels of Trump apologists suggesting that if the president wore a face mask , he would be portraying weakness .
So the message is that , even though the president is incapable of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ refers to as “ malignant cruelty , ” he deserves to be reelected because he is a “ strong man.
” All of that is why the recent piece by Tom Nichols garnered so much attention .
Its title is , “ Donald Trump , the Most Unmanly President.
” In order to make his case , Nichols has to first define what manliness means to working-class white guys .
They are , as an American Psychological Association feature describes them , men who adhere to norms such as “ toughness , dominance @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of emotional expression and the avoidance of traditionally feminine attitudes and behaviors.
” But I didn ’ t need an expert study to tell me this ; they are men like my late father and his friends , who understood that a man ’ s word is his bond and that a handshake means something .
They are men who still believe in a day ’ s work for a day ’ s wages .
They feel that you should never thank another man when he hands you a paycheck that you earned @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to an unhealthy degree—and know that there is honor in making an honest living and raising a family .
The part of that description that focuses on men of integrity is something we can admire in any human being .
But even he admits that some of those characteristics are problematic .
Perhaps the APA descriptor that Nichols didn ’ t comment on is the most significant : “ the avoidance of traditionally feminine attitudes and behaviors.
” In the context of evaluating what it means to be “ manly , ” the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the opposite of what it means to be “ feminine.
” That is what the Trump campaign and Senator Graham are doing when they talk about “ nice guys.
” To be nice or empathetic is to be feminine—and to be feminine is to be weak .
Taking the opposite view from Nichols about the president ’ s manliness is Trump enabler Sebastian Gorka .
In that clip , you get a taste of what Gorka means by “ manly , ” especially when he describes Trump ’ s attacks on reporters .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ next day .
In Gorka ’ s mind , having a “ tough game ” is a demonstration of masculinity .
But wouldn ’ t “ feminine ” women also be capable of having a tough game ?
What does that have to do with masculinity ?
What strikes me about all of this is the fact that a lot of men continue to struggle with what it means to be manly .
For obvious reasons , that is not an issue that I can address , so I ’ ll just let @ @ @ @ @ @ @ how Rebecca Traister put it .
White men are at the center , our normative citizen , despite being only around a third of the nation ’ s population .
Their outsize power is measurable by the fact that they still — nearly 140 years after the passage of the 15th Amendment , not quite 100 years after the passage of the 19th Amendment , and more than 50 years after the passage of the Civil Rights and Voting Rights Acts — hold roughly two-thirds of elected offices in federal , state , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 92 presidents and vice-presidents .
One-hundred percent of them have been men , and more than 99 percent white men .
But it ’ s not just in the numbers ; it ’ s also in the quotidian realities of living in this country .
The suffocating power of our minority rule is evidenced by the fact that we ’ re always busy worrying about the humanity — the comfort and the dignity — of white men , at the same time discouraging disruptive challenge to their authority .
Here ’ s an @ @ @ @ @ @ @ men take some time off from leadership positions while they sort out what it means to be manly .
Meanwhile , those of us who ’ ve been on the sidelines working on this whole “ identity ” thing for decades can run things for a while .
How does that sound ?

According to Gabriel Sherman, this is how the president is responding to the prospect of losing the election in November.
As he headed into Memorial Day weekend, Donald Trump complained that he was COVID-19’s biggest victim. “He was just in a fucking rage,” said a person who spoke with Trump late last week. “He was saying, ‘This is so unfair to me! Everything was going great. We were cruising to reelection!” Even as the death toll neared 100,000 and unemployment ranks swelled to over 38 million, Trump couldn’t see the pandemic as anything other than something that had happened to him. “The problem is he has no empathy,” the adviser said.
The fact that Trump is incapable of empathy is not news to those of us who have been paying attention. But due to his mishandling of the coronavirus crisis, more and more Americans are beginning to notice. Since members of his campaign staff can’t simply inject empathy into a malignant narcissist, they decided to take a different approach. Their message is basically that “nice guys don’t cut it.”
Senator Lindsey Graham had a similar message, saying that “Joe Biden’s a nice man, but we don’t need that. We need a strong man, and President Trump is a strong man” (perhaps he meant strongman).
That comes on the heels of Trump apologists suggesting that if the president wore a face mask, he would be portraying weakness. So the message is that, even though the president is incapable of empathy and is exhibiting what Peter Wehner refers to as “malignant cruelty,” he deserves to be reelected because he is a “strong man.”
All of that is why the recent piece by Tom Nichols garnered so much attention. Its title is, “Donald Trump, the Most Unmanly President.” In order to make his case, Nichols has to first define what manliness means to working-class white guys.
They are, as an American Psychological Association feature describes them, men who adhere to norms such as “toughness, dominance, self-reliance, heterosexual behaviors, restriction of emotional expression and the avoidance of traditionally feminine attitudes and behaviors.” But I didn’t need an expert study to tell me this; they are men like my late father and his friends, who understood that a man’s word is his bond and that a handshake means something. They are men who still believe in a day’s work for a day’s wages. They feel that you should never thank another man when he hands you a paycheck that you earned. They shoulder most burdens in silence—perhaps to an unhealthy degree—and know that there is honor in making an honest living and raising a family.
The part of that description that focuses on men of integrity is something we can admire in any human being. But even he admits that some of those characteristics are problematic.
Some of these traditional masculine virtues have a dark side: Toughness and dominance become bullying and abuse; self-reliance becomes isolation; silence becomes internalized rage.
Perhaps the APA descriptor that Nichols didn’t comment on is the most significant: “the avoidance of traditionally feminine attitudes and behaviors.” In the context of evaluating what it means to be “manly,” the covert message is often that it is the opposite of what it means to be “feminine.” That is what the Trump campaign and Senator Graham are doing when they talk about “nice guys.” To be nice or empathetic is to be feminine—and to be feminine is to be weak.
Taking the opposite view from Nichols about the president’s manliness is Trump enabler Sebastian Gorka.
In that clip, you get a taste of what Gorka means by “manly,” especially when he describes Trump’s attacks on reporters. But he elaborated on his blog the next day.
President Trump is a strong man because he is a strong leader, and because words lead to actions. He stands up for his country and pushes back aggressively on forces that have pushed our less than robust leaders around in the past…President Trump doesn’t merely talk a good game, he has the tough game to match. His is a presidency that has revived not only traditional masculinity, but American strength globally.
In Gorka’s mind, having a “tough game” is a demonstration of masculinity. But wouldn’t “feminine” women also be capable of having a tough game? What does that have to do with masculinity?
What strikes me about all of this is the fact that a lot of men continue to struggle with what it means to be manly. For obvious reasons, that is not an issue that I can address, so I’ll just let this guy do it.
This is how Rebecca Traister put it.
White men are at the center, our normative citizen, despite being only around a third of the nation’s population. Their outsize power is measurable by the fact that they still — nearly 140 years after the passage of the 15th Amendment, not quite 100 years after the passage of the 19th Amendment, and more than 50 years after the passage of the Civil Rights and Voting Rights Acts — hold roughly two-thirds of elected offices in federal, state, and local legislatures. We have had 92 presidents and vice-presidents. One-hundred percent of them have been men, and more than 99 percent white men. But it’s not just in the numbers; it’s also in the quotidian realities of living in this country. The suffocating power of our minority rule is evidenced by the fact that we’re always busy worrying about the humanity — the comfort and the dignity — of white men, at the same time discouraging disruptive challenge to their authority.
Here’s an idea: let’s let white men take some time off from leadership positions while they sort out what it means to be manly. Meanwhile, those of us who’ve been on the sidelines working on this whole “identity” thing for decades can run things for a while. How does that sound?


washingtonmonthly--2020-05-28--Trump’s Botched Coronavirus Response Could Cost Him Florida

No Republican in 95 years has won a presidential election without winning Florida .
But two recent developments should have Florida Republicans uneasy about the state ’ s role in the upcoming election .
First , a poll released last week by Florida Atlantic University shows President Donald Trump trailing Joe Biden by six percentage points , 47 percent to 53 percent , from May 8-12 .
This drop is a sharp reversal from the March FAU poll that had Trump ahead by two percent .
Other polls earlier in the year—Fox and Quinnipiac—had Biden either defeating Trump by a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in a virtual tie .
Second , this week a federal judge upheld the right to vote for most convicted felons , even if they had not paid their fines .
Judge Robert L. Hinkle called the restrictions issued by Florida ’ s GOP controlled government a poll “ tax ” and “ pay-to-vote ” scheme .
Republican Governor and Trump Ally Ron DeSantis plans to appeal .
There is no question about his motives : Black and Latino voters traditionally support a Democratic nominee and also happen to be the majority of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ knows that many Florida elections are often decided by razor-thin margins .
The potential addition of 700,000 new voters could certainly prove decisive in November .
Even without the addition of these votes , Trump may still be in serious trouble in the Sunshine State .
Of course , the president has spent more time in Florida than in any other location outside of Washington D.C. ( That was on painful display this weekend , as he hit the links as new data came in showing 100,000 Americans had fallen to the novel @ @ @ @ @ @ @ done nothing to combat Floridians ’ wavering confidence in his leadership .
Republicans are responding with an onslaught of slanderous Biden ads and nervously dumping millions of dollars into the Panhandle and Gulf areas to energize their supporters .
The economy has quickly become the most pressing issue , cited by Republican voters in the FAU poll , followed by the re-election of the president .
Unsurprisingly , Democrats cited defeating Trump as the most important issue , followed by health care .
It is clear : The COVID-19 outbreak and the subsequent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ defining issues for voters this fall .
But with the economy in a sharp downturn , unemployment in the tens of millions , an imminent Recession/Depression on the horizon , and a second wave of the pandemic expected right before the election , Trump is getting cornered by a cascade of events he can not control .
His recent spat of conspiracy tweets—against China , Joe Scarborough , and Twitter—are an obvious attempt to distract the voters .
That stands to reason .
A new poll by North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab @ @ @ @ @ @ @ felt Trump had not gone far enough to contain the spread of the virus .
Trump ’ s approval numbers may continue to fall precipitously if the pandemic and the economy turn into a lingering plateau .
This will hurt him most with the voters in Florida who he needs the most .
Trump won Florida in 2016 by a slim 1.2 percent margin over Hillary Clinton , mainly due to Trump ’ s 17 percentage lead among senior citizens .
Yet seniors older than 65 , who make up more 20 percent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the most vulnerable to COVID-19 , and the president ’ s own polls reveal a drop in boomer support as he moves to reopen the economy , at the cost of more deaths among this very population .
This will also matter in other critical states with large , older , retiree populations , such as Michigan , Wisconsin , and Pennsylvania .
A recent Morning Consult poll unsurprisingly found that the Baby Boomer generation had a larger portion of citizens “ very concerned ” about the coronavirus crisis compared with younger generations @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a second wave will threaten their lives if exposure risk is not properly handled .
Trump ’ s may have proclaimed May “ Older Americans Month , ” but if the second wave hits before the November election , no amount of elder recognition will save his chances of winning .
Trump ’ s erratic briefings on the coronavirus , dismissive demeanor , and acerbic personal Tweets have not helped him with older voters .
For the most part , seniors trust their doctors .
At the same time , Trump ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ nation ’ s top epidemiologist , and other medical authorities have undermined their confidence in the commander-in-chief .
Trump is trying to position himself as the great hero who saves the country from the pandemic and brings back a robust economy .
He is promising a vaccine by the year ’ s end , which gives him a few months after the election to deliver .
But stubborn facts may get in his way .
If there are still 25 million Americans unemployed in November , with the Dow below 24,000 and the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ mainly elderly ) people with no treatment or vaccine in sight , there is no way he can spin this .
Or win Florida .

No Republican in 95 years has won a presidential election without winning Florida. But two recent developments should have Florida Republicans uneasy about the state’s role in the upcoming election.
First, a poll released last week by Florida Atlantic University shows President Donald Trump trailing Joe Biden by six percentage points, 47 percent to 53 percent, from May 8-12. This drop is a sharp reversal from the March FAU poll that had Trump ahead by two percent. Other polls earlier in the year—Fox and Quinnipiac—had Biden either defeating Trump by a narrow margin, or found the two in a virtual tie.
Second, this week a federal judge upheld the right to vote for most convicted felons, even if they had not paid their fines. Judge Robert L. Hinkle called the restrictions issued by Florida’s GOP controlled government a poll “tax” and “pay-to-vote” scheme. Republican Governor and Trump Ally Ron DeSantis plans to appeal. There is no question about his motives: Black and Latino voters traditionally support a Democratic nominee and also happen to be the majority of Florida’s returning citizens.
Trump knows that many Florida elections are often decided by razor-thin margins. The potential addition of 700,000 new voters could certainly prove decisive in November.
Even without the addition of these votes, Trump may still be in serious trouble in the Sunshine State. Of course, the president has spent more time in Florida than in any other location outside of Washington D.C. (That was on painful display this weekend, as he hit the links as new data came in showing 100,000 Americans had fallen to the novel coronavirus.) Yet his presence has done nothing to combat Floridians’ wavering confidence in his leadership. Republicans are responding with an onslaught of slanderous Biden ads and nervously dumping millions of dollars into the Panhandle and Gulf areas to energize their supporters.
The economy has quickly become the most pressing issue, cited by Republican voters in the FAU poll, followed by the re-election of the president. Unsurprisingly, Democrats cited defeating Trump as the most important issue, followed by health care. It is clear: The COVID-19 outbreak and the subsequent economic downturn will most certainly be the defining issues for voters this fall.
But with the economy in a sharp downturn, unemployment in the tens of millions, an imminent Recession/Depression on the horizon, and a second wave of the pandemic expected right before the election, Trump is getting cornered by a cascade of events he cannot control. His recent spat of conspiracy tweets—against China, Joe Scarborough, and Twitter—are an obvious attempt to distract the voters.
That stands to reason. A new poll by North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab found that 55 percent of registered voters felt Trump had not gone far enough to contain the spread of the virus. Trump’s approval numbers may continue to fall precipitously if the pandemic and the economy turn into a lingering plateau.
This will hurt him most with the voters in Florida who he needs the most. Trump won Florida in 2016 by a slim 1.2 percent margin over Hillary Clinton, mainly due to Trump’s 17 percentage lead among senior citizens. Yet seniors older than 65, who make up more 20 percent of Florida’s voters, are the most vulnerable to COVID-19, and the president’s own polls reveal a drop in boomer support as he moves to reopen the economy, at the cost of more deaths among this very population. This will also matter in other critical states with large, older, retiree populations, such as Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.
A recent Morning Consult poll unsurprisingly found that the Baby Boomer generation had a larger portion of citizens “very concerned” about the coronavirus crisis compared with younger generations. There is a real fear that a second wave will threaten their lives if exposure risk is not properly handled. Trump’s may have proclaimed May “Older Americans Month,” but if the second wave hits before the November election, no amount of elder recognition will save his chances of winning.
Trump’s erratic briefings on the coronavirus, dismissive demeanor, and acerbic personal Tweets have not helped him with older voters. For the most part, seniors trust their doctors. At the same time, Trump’s disagreements with Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation’s top epidemiologist, and other medical authorities have undermined their confidence in the commander-in-chief.
Trump is trying to position himself as the great hero who saves the country from the pandemic and brings back a robust economy. He is promising a vaccine by the year’s end, which gives him a few months after the election to deliver.
But stubborn facts may get in his way. If there are still 25 million Americans unemployed in November, with the Dow below 24,000 and the U.S death toll rising to 150,000 (mainly elderly) people with no treatment or vaccine in sight, there is no way he can spin this. Or win Florida.


washingtonmonthly--2020-05-28--The Republicans Who Could Help Elect Joe Biden

In the aftermath of the 2016 election , major media outlets provided us with a constant stream of stories about the people who voted for Donald Trump .
I suspect that the obsession with that storyline came from the shock all of us felt about the outcome of that election .
But hearing from the racist nostalgia voters got old after awhile .
We now have a counterbalance .
A new website just popped up titled “ Republican Voters Against Trump.
” Springing from the same people who founded The Bulwark as a home for Never Trumpers , its purpose @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are vowing to not vote for Trump in 2020 .
They have already collected almost 100 videos .
Here are a few examples .
It is fascinating to listen to these people as a way to understand those who Adam Gopnik once described as “ honest opponents ” as opposed to “ toxic enemies.
” While many of these Republicans ( or former Republicans ) made it clear that they still disagree with Biden on some issues , what they want in a president is , as Tom suggested , someone who can @ @ @ @ @ @ @ House .
One of the most common complaints about Trump is that he has put his own interests above those of the country .
Many of them also recognize how the president has deepened the divide among Americans by demanding complete loyalty and spreading hate .
I was a bit surprised by the fact that the corruption of the Justice Department under Attorney General Bill Barr came up on several occasions .
There are those who have given up on the Republican Party altogether and those who have talked about the need for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ person put it , clean out the stench of Donald Trump .
Just as many of these people don ’ t agree with Biden on some issues , Democrats might reject their claims that Ronald Reagan was a uniter and that Republicans have traditionally been the party of fiscal responsibility .
But as one woman put it in her video , the priority right now is to ensure that Trump isn ’ t reelected , then we can get back to hashing out those differences .
Given that Trump ’ s approval rating @ @ @ @ @ @ @ percent over the course of his presidency , it is clear that the people in these videos represent a minority in their party .
But as Amanda Carpenter wrote a few months ago , they could become the “ silent majority-makers.
” Trump needs Republicans to win .
Not just his MAGA-hat-wearing , self-avowed deplorables .
He needs all of them .
He needs GOP suit-and-tie Chamber of Commerce types , the suburban yoga moms , and the buttoned-up Sunday school teachers alike .
Even those camped out in the farthest nooks and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the swingiest of swing states .
Why ?
Because he ’ s never even entertained the concept of reaching out to Democratic and Independent voters… Remember , Trump beat Hillary Clinton by a total of just under 80,000 votes in the swing states of Pennsylvania , Michigan , and Wisconsin .
Trump got a shade under 63 million votes in 2016 , which means that if he loses one tenth of one percent of those people , his margin is gone… [ R ] ank and file Republican voters—the people out there in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to report to Captain Trump , but do turn out in November , pose a very real danger to Trump ’ s prospects .
Therein lies the quiet significance of NeverTrump .
While not many Republicans identify as “ NeverTrump , ” an important bloc vote like they are .
I am not suggesting that Biden should alter his policy priorities to garner support from these Republicans .
Based on what we see in these videos , that is not necessary .
They already know his history and recognize that they won ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ they want is someone who can beat Trump and restore honesty and decency to the presidency .
They ’ ve already decided that Biden is the man for that job .

In the aftermath of the 2016 election, major media outlets provided us with a constant stream of stories about the people who voted for Donald Trump. I suspect that the obsession with that storyline came from the shock all of us felt about the outcome of that election. But hearing from the racist nostalgia voters got old after awhile.
We now have a counterbalance. A new website just popped up titled “Republican Voters Against Trump.” Springing from the same people who founded The Bulwark as a home for Never Trumpers, its purpose is to publish videos of Republicans who are vowing to not vote for Trump in 2020. They have already collected almost 100 videos. Here are a few examples.
It is fascinating to listen to these people as a way to understand those who Adam Gopnik once described as “honest opponents” as opposed to “toxic enemies.”
What’s needed against Trump now is…not an ideologically narrow, politically focussed opposition but the widest possible coalition of people who genuinely value the tenets of democracy, meaning no more than the passionate desire to settle differences by debate and argument, rather than by power and cruelty and clan.
While many of these Republicans (or former Republicans) made it clear that they still disagree with Biden on some issues, what they want in a president is, as Tom suggested, someone who can restore dignity and competency to the White House. One of the most common complaints about Trump is that he has put his own interests above those of the country. Many of them also recognize how the president has deepened the divide among Americans by demanding complete loyalty and spreading hate. I was a bit surprised by the fact that the corruption of the Justice Department under Attorney General Bill Barr came up on several occasions. There are those who have given up on the Republican Party altogether and those who have talked about the need for reform in order to, as one person put it, clean out the stench of Donald Trump.
Just as many of these people don’t agree with Biden on some issues, Democrats might reject their claims that Ronald Reagan was a uniter and that Republicans have traditionally been the party of fiscal responsibility. But as one woman put it in her video, the priority right now is to ensure that Trump isn’t reelected, then we can get back to hashing out those differences.
Given that Trump’s approval rating among Republicans has hovered somewhere between 75-90 percent over the course of his presidency, it is clear that the people in these videos represent a minority in their party. But as Amanda Carpenter wrote a few months ago, they could become the “silent majority-makers.”
Trump needs Republicans to win. Not just his MAGA-hat-wearing, self-avowed deplorables. He needs all of them. He needs GOP suit-and-tie Chamber of Commerce types, the suburban yoga moms, and the buttoned-up Sunday school teachers alike. Even those camped out in the farthest nooks and crannies of the most gerrymandered districts in the swingiest of swing states. Why? Because he’s never even entertained the concept of reaching out to Democratic and Independent voters… Remember, Trump beat Hillary Clinton by a total of just under 80,000 votes in the swing states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Trump got a shade under 63 million votes in 2016, which means that if he loses one tenth of one percent of those people, his margin is gone… [R]ank and file Republican voters—the people out there in the suburbs who don’t have to report to Captain Trump, but do turn out in November, pose a very real danger to Trump’s prospects. Therein lies the quiet significance of NeverTrump. While not many Republicans identify as “NeverTrump,” an important bloc vote like they are.
I am not suggesting that Biden should alter his policy priorities to garner support from these Republicans. Based on what we see in these videos, that is not necessary. They already know his history and recognize that they won’t always agree with him. What they want is someone who can beat Trump and restore honesty and decency to the presidency. They’ve already decided that Biden is the man for that job.


washingtonmonthly--2020-05-28--The Economic Recovery Will Be a Whimper, Not a Bang

It is not surprising that the Trump administration ’ s top economist promised this week that huge , historic gains in jobs and growth are coming in a few months .
He is not alone .
Even some Democratic economists think that economic growth and jobs could come roaring back before the November election .
They are wrong .
The truth is that the economy ’ s near-term path is bound up inextricably in how the pandemic continues to unfold .
Economists have no expertise on that score ; but we can gauge the scale of the damage already done @ @ @ @ @ @ @ recovery later this year is not in the cards .
Economists know that any forecast is at best an educated guess based on extrapolating from what happened in the past .
Economic predictions are only as plausible as the models on which they are based .
Sad to say , the scenarios of an impending boom draw on the wrong models .
Based on the pandemic ’ s known impact on businesses and employment over the last three months , a slow and irregular recovery is much more likely .
The happy forecasts @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pandemic is an external shock to the economy , such as a major hurricane or flood .
Normal economic activity stops and then restarts once the shock passes .
Further , the recovery gets an additional boost from the need to rebuild whatever the natural disaster destroyed .
This mindset assumes that the economy will bounce back as new infection rates recede and there ’ s a spurt of spending and business investments that the pandemic put on hold .
But this pandemic is nothing like a natural disaster in ways that matter @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not move the overall economy , because they are brief events that leave most of the country unaffected .
The destructive force of the coronavirus has persisted over several months , badly damaging businesses and lives across every city and state .
The result is that the economy that emerges from this pandemic will be structurally damaged .
We already know that the economy ’ s productive capacity will be significantly less than it was before the coronavirus outbreak—and this destructive process is ongoing .
According to a J. P. Morgan Chase study @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 12 industries lack the cash resources to survive for as long as 27 days without revenues .
Real estate firms were best prepared , with half holding cash buffers that would cover 47 days .
Professional and high-tech service firms , on average , can hold on for an average of 33 days .
And half of all smaller companies in the construction , retail , and restaurant industries have the cash needed to stay solvent for only 16-20 days .
These statistics tells us that when the economy reopens , tens of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and millions more will be weakened .
Moreover , the hundreds of thousands of companies that supply and service all the enterprises destroyed or damaged by the pandemic will also come out of this smaller than they were .
Behind every restaurant , hotel , retail store , health club , concert hall , building contractor , and professional service company are a network of manufacturers , wholesalers , warehouses , cleaning and catering companies , legal and accounting firms , IT service companies and other contractors , that help keep them in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and service do not come roaring back this summer , neither will they .
Once the economy reopens , tens of thousands of other companies will also face hard times .
Until a vaccine is widely available , millions of Americans will avoid air travel .
That will squeeze hotels and restaurants in every city that draws tourism—from Orlando , New York , and Las Vegas , to Honolulu , Nashville , and Miami .
Similarly , big crowds are unlikely to fill sports stadiums , concert halls , cineplexes , and shopping @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Enrollments at colleges and universities will likely be down .
Many surviving retailers and eating and drinking establishments will have to limit their customer flows .
This is clearly not an economic environment that will support historic job gains .
The pandemic thus far has cost 39 million Americans their jobs .
In April alone , the Bureau of Labor Statistics ( BLS ) reported that 18 million Americans were furloughed , on top of the 15.9 million people counted as newly unemployed that month .
In a normal business cycle , people @ @ @ @ @ @ @ jobs .
But a pandemic is not a normal economic event .
A new analysis from the University of Chicago ’ s Becker Friedman Institute for Economics estimates that 42 percent of the people recently furloughed will never get their old jobs back .
The study further estimates that only 30 percent of those laid off will land new jobs later this year .
If this analysis is anywhere near the mark , unemployment will be at least 15 percent going into the election .
Even this dispiriting view may be too optimistic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ most developments simply carry on .
But we can not assume that the recent declines in COVID-19 infections and deaths will persist once the economy reopens , especially without widespread testing and contact tracing .
Already , many Americans in some states that are partially reopened have ignored the minimal precautions that virologists warn are vital to keep the infection and death rates falling , such as wearing masks and practicing social distancing .
In fact , CDC data show that over the past two weeks , new cases increased in 17 states @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of big gains in growth and jobs before November also will disappear entirely if a second wave of the pandemic emerges in autumn .
Yet even if most people take precautions and we are spared that second wave , the evidence does not support forecasts of outsized economic growth and job gains later this year .
If President Trump bets his reelection on a historic recovery kicking in this summer , he should be prepared to relocate permanently to Mar-A-Lago .

It is not surprising that the Trump administration’s top economist promised this week that huge, historic gains in jobs and growth are coming in a few months. He is not alone. Even some Democratic economists think that economic growth and jobs could come roaring back before the November election. They are wrong. The truth is that the economy’s near-term path is bound up inextricably in how the pandemic continues to unfold. Economists have no expertise on that score; but we can gauge the scale of the damage already done, which tells us that a strong recovery later this year is not in the cards.
Economists know that any forecast is at best an educated guess based on extrapolating from what happened in the past. Economic predictions are only as plausible as the models on which they are based. Sad to say, the scenarios of an impending boom draw on the wrong models. Based on the pandemic’s known impact on businesses and employment over the last three months, a slow and irregular recovery is much more likely.
The happy forecasts assume that the closest parallel to this pandemic is an external shock to the economy, such as a major hurricane or flood. Normal economic activity stops and then restarts once the shock passes. Further, the recovery gets an additional boost from the need to rebuild whatever the natural disaster destroyed. This mindset assumes that the economy will bounce back as new infection rates recede and there’s a spurt of spending and business investments that the pandemic put on hold.
But this pandemic is nothing like a natural disaster in ways that matter economically. Terrible hurricanes or floods do not move the overall economy, because they are brief events that leave most of the country unaffected. The destructive force of the coronavirus has persisted over several months, badly damaging businesses and lives across every city and state. The result is that the economy that emerges from this pandemic will be structurally damaged.
We already know that the economy’s productive capacity will be significantly less than it was before the coronavirus outbreak—and this destructive process is ongoing. According to a J. P. Morgan Chase study, half of all smaller businesses across 12 industries lack the cash resources to survive for as long as 27 days without revenues. Real estate firms were best prepared, with half holding cash buffers that would cover 47 days. Professional and high-tech service firms, on average, can hold on for an average of 33 days. And half of all smaller companies in the construction, retail, and restaurant industries have the cash needed to stay solvent for only 16-20 days.
These statistics tells us that when the economy reopens, tens of thousands of companies will be gone, and millions more will be weakened. Moreover, the hundreds of thousands of companies that supply and service all the enterprises destroyed or damaged by the pandemic will also come out of this smaller than they were. Behind every restaurant, hotel, retail store, health club, concert hall, building contractor, and professional service company are a network of manufacturers, wholesalers, warehouses, cleaning and catering companies, legal and accounting firms, IT service companies and other contractors, that help keep them in business. If the companies they supply and service do not come roaring back this summer, neither will they.
Once the economy reopens, tens of thousands of other companies will also face hard times. Until a vaccine is widely available, millions of Americans will avoid air travel. That will squeeze hotels and restaurants in every city that draws tourism—from Orlando, New York, and Las Vegas, to Honolulu, Nashville, and Miami. Similarly, big crowds are unlikely to fill sports stadiums, concert halls, cineplexes, and shopping malls until everyone can be vaccinated. Enrollments at colleges and universities will likely be down. Many surviving retailers and eating and drinking establishments will have to limit their customer flows.
This is clearly not an economic environment that will support historic job gains. The pandemic thus far has cost 39 million Americans their jobs. In April alone, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that 18 million Americans were furloughed, on top of the 15.9 million people counted as newly unemployed that month. In a normal business cycle, people on furlough soon return to their old jobs. But a pandemic is not a normal economic event. A new analysis from the University of Chicago’s Becker Friedman Institute for Economics estimates that 42 percent of the people recently furloughed will never get their old jobs back. The study further estimates that only 30 percent of those laid off will land new jobs later this year. If this analysis is anywhere near the mark, unemployment will be at least 15 percent going into the election.
Even this dispiriting view may be too optimistic. Extrapolation and economic modeling assume that most developments simply carry on. But we cannot assume that the recent declines in COVID-19 infections and deaths will persist once the economy reopens, especially without widespread testing and contact tracing. Already, many Americans in some states that are partially reopened have ignored the minimal precautions that virologists warn are vital to keep the infection and death rates falling, such as wearing masks and practicing social distancing. In fact, CDC data show that over the past two weeks, new cases increased in 17 states. Needless to say, any prospect of big gains in growth and jobs before November also will disappear entirely if a second wave of the pandemic emerges in autumn.
Yet even if most people take precautions and we are spared that second wave, the evidence does not support forecasts of outsized economic growth and job gains later this year. If President Trump bets his reelection on a historic recovery kicking in this summer, he should be prepared to relocate permanently to Mar-A-Lago.


washingtonmonthly--2020-05-28--Winning Support from Suburban Republicans is Key for Biden

If you look at the list of statewide officials in Pennsylvania , you ’ ll notice that they ’ re all Democrats .
This obviously includes the governor and lieutenant governor , but also the attorney general , the secretary of state , the auditor general , and the treasurer .
So , how did Hillary Clinton manage to lose the state ?
Every vote is equal , so it ’ s possible to come up with a variety of explanations .
The two most popular , which are often combined , are that blacks didn ’ t turn out @ @ @ @ @ @ @ towns and rural areas absolutely collapsed .
The first of these explanations is somewhat true , but its impact is also exaggerated because Clinton made up for a drop in black turnout by doing better than Obama among urban whites .
She wound up netting about the same number of votes out of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh as Obama .
The second explanation is definitely true .
Clinton was slaughtered in low-population counties , and it wiped out her advantage everywhere else .
But there ’ s a third explanation that is almost always @ @ @ @ @ @ @ didn ’ t do better in the suburbs .
The reason people don ’ t seize on this explanation is because she did better in the suburbs than any Democrat before her .
For this reason , people will say that her suburban strategy actually worked but was swamped by Trump ’ s rural strategy , and that ’ s accurate .
But I contend that any Democrat not named Clinton would have done significantly better in 2016 in the Pennsylvania suburbs and carried the state as a result .
The reason I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are historically one of the strongest Republican areas in the country .
Since Trump became president , the Democrats have taken political control in the ring of counties around the city for the first time since the Civil War .
Bill Clinton actually made good progress in the suburbs and really began the process of flipping them , but there are a lot of people there who voted against him twice and who spent the 1990s thinking of the Clintons as their political enemies .
By 2008 , a lot of these folks @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the GOP and the ineptitude of the Bush administration , and Obama won their support .
It didn ’ t hurt that he ’ d defeated Hillary Clinton in the primaries .
Yet , in 2016 , there were still enough folks who simply could not cast a ballot for a Clinton that it dragged down her numbers .
Some didn ’ t vote and some cast a ballot for Gary Johnson or Jill Stein .
Many simply held their nose and voted for Trump , including some who never for a moment @ @ @ @ @ @ @ They weren ’ t supporting him as much as registering their disgust with their choices .
A healthy chunk of these folks became Obama/Trump voters .
This effect doesn ’ t pop out of the numbers when you examine them , but it was real , and it won ’ t apply in 2020 .
In fact , the reverse will be the case , because Joe Biden is almost an honorary senator in the Philly suburbs .
The Delaware border is about 13 miles south of my Chester County home and Wilmington @ @ @ @ @ @ @ market .
People here know and like Biden , and they know he ’ s a Pennsylvania native .
He set up his campaign headquarters in Philly prior to the COVID-19 outbreak .
This is why it makes a lot of sense for the organization Republican Voters Against Trump to focus on the suburbs .
The effort is aimed at suburban voters in general , particularly men , but it should work at least as well around Philadelphia as it works anyplace else .
After almost three years of conducting focus groups and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with persuadable voters , the founders have created a cache of 100 testimonial videos , most shot on smartphones , with voters explaining why they are making the sometimes painful choice to break with their political party .
Some of the videos are hardly rousing endorsements for Mr. Biden .
In one testimonial , Wayne from Dallas says to the camera , “ I could not bring myself to vote for Hillary , so I voted for President Trump.
” But he said he believed the president had “ gotten worse ” and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has been to enrich himself.
” With a note of resignation , he says : “ I will not be voting for him here in 2020 .
I suppose I ’ ll be voting for Biden.
” The idea is to give permission to folks who want to vote against Trump but still have values that align more with the historic Republican Party .
The easiest targets are the Obama/Trump voters .
They already voted for Biden at least once , if not twice .
The harder targets are the ones that stuck @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cycles but have now begun to waver .
The effort is led by Sarah Longwell , along with Bill Kristol and some other prominent lifelong Republicans .
Ms. Longwell understands my thesis :

If you look at the list of statewide officials in Pennsylvania, you’ll notice that they’re all Democrats. This obviously includes the governor and lieutenant governor, but also the attorney general, the secretary of state, the auditor general, and the treasurer. So, how did Hillary Clinton manage to lose the state?
Every vote is equal, so it’s possible to come up with a variety of explanations. The two most popular, which are often combined, are that blacks didn’t turn out for her and her support in small towns and rural areas absolutely collapsed. The first of these explanations is somewhat true, but its impact is also exaggerated because Clinton made up for a drop in black turnout by doing better than Obama among urban whites. She wound up netting about the same number of votes out of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh as Obama. The second explanation is definitely true. Clinton was slaughtered in low-population counties, and it wiped out her advantage everywhere else. But there’s a third explanation that is almost always overlooked.
Clinton lost Pennsylvania because she didn’t do better in the suburbs. The reason people don’t seize on this explanation is because she did better in the suburbs than any Democrat before her. For this reason, people will say that her suburban strategy actually worked but was swamped by Trump’s rural strategy, and that’s accurate. But I contend that any Democrat not named Clinton would have done significantly better in 2016 in the Pennsylvania suburbs and carried the state as a result.
The reason I say this is because the Philadelphia suburbs are historically one of the strongest Republican areas in the country. Since Trump became president, the Democrats have taken political control in the ring of counties around the city for the first time since the Civil War. Bill Clinton actually made good progress in the suburbs and really began the process of flipping them, but there are a lot of people there who voted against him twice and who spent the 1990s thinking of the Clintons as their political enemies. By 2008, a lot of these folks had had enough of the southification of the GOP and the ineptitude of the Bush administration, and Obama won their support. It didn’t hurt that he’d defeated Hillary Clinton in the primaries. Yet, in 2016, there were still enough folks who simply could not cast a ballot for a Clinton that it dragged down her numbers. Some didn’t vote and some cast a ballot for Gary Johnson or Jill Stein. Many simply held their nose and voted for Trump, including some who never for a moment thought he’d actually win. They weren’t supporting him as much as registering their disgust with their choices. A healthy chunk of these folks became Obama/Trump voters.
This effect doesn’t pop out of the numbers when you examine them, but it was real, and it won’t apply in 2020. In fact, the reverse will be the case, because Joe Biden is almost an honorary senator in the Philly suburbs. The Delaware border is about 13 miles south of my Chester County home and Wilmington and Philadelphia are really a shared media market. People here know and like Biden, and they know he’s a Pennsylvania native. He set up his campaign headquarters in Philly prior to the COVID-19 outbreak.
This is why it makes a lot of sense for the organization Republican Voters Against Trump to focus on the suburbs.
Now, a new effort called Republican Voters Against Trump is hoping to chip away at Mr. Trump’s support from white, college-educated Republican voters in the suburbs, hoping a more surgical approach will help to elect Joseph R. Biden Jr., his expected Democratic opponent. The new group is set to begin a $10 million digital and television advertising campaign that will use personal stories of conservative voters giving voice to their deep — and sometimes brand-new — dissatisfaction with the president.
The effort is aimed at suburban voters in general, particularly men, but it should work at least as well around Philadelphia as it works anyplace else.
After almost three years of conducting focus groups and intensive research on messages that would work with persuadable voters, the founders have created a cache of 100 testimonial videos, most shot on smartphones, with voters explaining why they are making the sometimes painful choice to break with their political party. Some of the videos are hardly rousing endorsements for Mr. Biden. In one testimonial, Wayne from Dallas says to the camera, “I could not bring myself to vote for Hillary, so I voted for President Trump.” But he said he believed the president had “gotten worse” and that “everything he’s done has been to enrich himself.” With a note of resignation, he says: “I will not be voting for him here in 2020. I suppose I’ll be voting for Biden.”
The idea is to give permission to folks who want to vote against Trump but still have values that align more with the historic Republican Party. The easiest targets are the Obama/Trump voters. They already voted for Biden at least once, if not twice. The harder targets are the ones that stuck with the GOP through the last three cycles but have now begun to waver.
The effort is led by Sarah Longwell, along with Bill Kristol and some other prominent lifelong Republicans. Ms. Longwell understands my thesis:
“People who have been Republicans their entire lives aren’t super excited about voting for a Democrat,” she said. “The way they talk about it is more in sorrow than enthusiasm.” But she said a Biden candidacy, and the lack of a well-known third-party candidate where voters can park their ballots, had created a bigger opportunity to persuade Republican voters to switch parties than there was in 2016. “You can’t overstate what the Clintons represent for Republicans,” Ms. Longwell said. “Donald Trump’s corruption was offset by what they saw as her corruption.” The Trump campaign will do what they can to raise doubts about Biden’s character, and they’ll have plenty of ammunition left over from Biden’s Democratic opponents in the primaries. They may chip away at his support from the far left, which makes flipping some more suburban Republicans a potentially key factor. The safest bet for Biden to carry a state like Pennsylvania is to make some inroads in rural counties so he doesn’t lose them by thirty or forty or fifty points, like Hillary did. He’ll also want to do what he can to boost urban turnout so he can bank the maximum advantage there. But just as important is winning the suburbs by margins never seen before, and that’s why the Republican Voters Against Trump strategy makes so much sense.


washingtonmonthly--2020-05-29--Why Are There More Swing States These Days?

It wasn ’ t that long ago that presidential elections seemed to come down to who won Ohio and Florida .
But in an era where political polarization is the hottest story , it is worth noting that the number of so-called “ swing states ” is growing .
The 2016 election was decided by less that 80,000 votes in Michigan , Pennsylvania , and Wisconsin—adding them to the list of states that could swing in 2020 .
More recently , we ’ ve been hearing a lot of chatter about the possibility that North Carolina , Georgia , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
It is in that context that Ron Brownstein points to the possibility for an historic election in four southwestern states .
Democrats today are strongly positioned to oust Republican Sens .
Martha McSally in Arizona and Cory Gardner in Colorado and hold their own open seat in New Mexico .
If the party wins those three races , as most analysts today agree they are favored but not assured to do , it will control all eight Senate seats from Arizona , Colorado , New Mexico and Nevada for the first time @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The exclamation point on this shift is the polls showing former Vice President Joe Biden , the presumptive Democratic nominee , in a competitive position to potentially win all four of these key Southwest states , something no Democratic presidential nominee has done since Harry Truman in 1948 .
One has to reach back even further — to Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1936 — to find the last time Democrats carried each of these states in a presidential race while also holding all of their Senate seats .
Colorado , New Mexico , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a few cycles now .
But it is very possible that Arizona could join them shortly .
Brownstein gets into the weeds about why that is happening .
It mostly has to do with population growth in the major metropolitan areas of those states—which trends blue .
Recognizing something I wrote about a while ago , he says that could spell trouble for Republicans in Texas .
The scariest prospect for Republicans is that everything said above about Arizona and Colorado in particular could also apply to Texas , the foundation stone of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
From Dallas/Fort Worth and Austin down south through Houston and San Antonio , the four metropolitan areas in what ’ s called the Texas triangle account for just over two-thirds of the state ’ s votes and jobs and more than three-fourths of its economic output .
All of them rank among America ’ s 10 fastest-growing cities , according to the census .
( All are also big recipients of transplants from California , which sent over 86,000 migrants to Texas just in 2018 . )
And as they grow , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ his narrow 2018 defeat , the Democratic Senate candidate Beto O ’ Rourke won the five counties encompassing those cities by nearly 800,000 votes , roughly six times then-President Barack Obama ’ s combined margin just six years earlier .
But there is another state that borders these three that could be swinging—although perhaps for very different reasons .
For some historical context , Utah ’ s electoral votes haven ’ t gone to a Democrat since Lyndon Johnson won there in 1964 , routing Barry Goldwater 486-52 .
So what ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Based on the kind of political polarization we ’ re witnessing , you ’ d think that most states would be rock solid in one camp or the other .
One answer to that question is clearly the presidency of Donald Trump .
While he has maintained his support among Christian nationalists and white working class voters , he is bleeding support from Independents as well as the Never Trumpers in the Republican Party .
The latter is especially pronounced among white , college-educated suburban voters .
But many of these trends pre-dated @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as much a rejection of the Republican Party as they are of the current president .
For example , states in the southwest have been trending younger and more diverse for quite a while .
You might recall that it was back in 2012 that Jeb Bush warned that Texas would turn blue if Republicans didn ’ t do a better job of reaching out to Latino voters .
And as the metropolitan areas in various states continue to grow , it send states swinging .
What we are witnessing is a major @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of movements take time .
Christopher Hooks noted that during a previous political realignment , the Republicanization of Texas “ took nearly a half a century to enact .
”

It wasn’t that long ago that presidential elections seemed to come down to who won Ohio and Florida. But in an era where political polarization is the hottest story, it is worth noting that the number of so-called “swing states” is growing.
The 2016 presidential election was decided by less that 80,000 votes in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—adding them to the list of states that could swing in 2020. More recently, we’ve been hearing a lot of chatter about the possibility that North Carolina, Georgia, and possibly even Texas could join the ranks. It is in that context that Ron Brownstein points to the possibility for an historic election in four southwestern states.
Democrats today are strongly positioned to oust Republican Sens. Martha McSally in Arizona and Cory Gardner in Colorado and hold their own open seat in New Mexico. If the party wins those three races, as most analysts today agree they are favored but not assured to do, it will control all eight Senate seats from Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada for the first time since 1941, according to Senate records… The exclamation point on this shift is the polls showing former Vice President Joe Biden, the presumptive Democratic nominee, in a competitive position to potentially win all four of these key Southwest states, something no Democratic presidential nominee has done since Harry Truman in 1948. One has to reach back even further — to Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1936 — to find the last time Democrats carried each of these states in a presidential race while also holding all of their Senate seats.
Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada have been trending blue for a few cycles now. But it is very possible that Arizona could join them shortly. Brownstein gets into the weeds about why that is happening. It mostly has to do with population growth in the major metropolitan areas of those states—which trends blue. Recognizing something I wrote about a while ago, he says that could spell trouble for Republicans in Texas.
The scariest prospect for Republicans is that everything said above about Arizona and Colorado in particular could also apply to Texas, the foundation stone of the GOP’s national political strength. From Dallas/Fort Worth and Austin down south through Houston and San Antonio, the four metropolitan areas in what’s called the Texas triangle account for just over two-thirds of the state’s votes and jobs and more than three-fourths of its economic output. All of them rank among America’s 10 fastest-growing cities, according to the census. (All are also big recipients of transplants from California, which sent over 86,000 migrants to Texas just in 2018.) And as they grow, they are shading more blue: In his narrow 2018 defeat, the Democratic Senate candidate Beto O’Rourke won the five counties encompassing those cities by nearly 800,000 votes, roughly six times then-President Barack Obama’s combined margin just six years earlier.
But there is another state that borders these three that could be swinging—although perhaps for very different reasons.
For some historical context, Utah’s electoral votes haven’t gone to a Democrat since Lyndon Johnson won there in 1964, routing Barry Goldwater in the Electoral College 486-52.
So what’s up with all of that swinging? Based on the kind of political polarization we’re witnessing, you’d think that most states would be rock solid in one camp or the other.
One answer to that question is clearly the presidency of Donald Trump. While he has maintained his support among Christian nationalists and white working class voters, he is bleeding support from Independents as well as the Never Trumpers in the Republican Party. The latter is especially pronounced among white, college-educated suburban voters.
But many of these trends pre-dated Trump, which means that they are as much a rejection of the Republican Party as they are of the current president. For example, states in the southwest have been trending younger and more diverse for quite a while. You might recall that it was back in 2012 that Jeb Bush warned that Texas would turn blue if Republicans didn’t do a better job of reaching out to Latino voters. And as the metropolitan areas in various states continue to grow, it send states swinging.
What we are witnessing is a major political realignment in process and these kinds of movements take time. Christopher Hooks noted that during a previous political realignment, the Republicanization of Texas “took nearly a half a century to enact.”


washingtonmonthly--2020-05-29--In Minneapolis, a Police Union Gone Rogue

Back in the summer of 2008 , the Republicans held their national convention in my home town of St. Paul , Minnesota .
The city braced for protests , while some law enforcement leaders spread lies about reports of coming violence .
As a result , police officers from all over the state joined city and county officers to stage a response .
Recognizing the potential for escalation between protesters and police officers , a group of local citizens formed the MN Peace Team to mediate between the two groups .
I tell that story because the same thing is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ aftermath of the murder of George Floyd .
According to the Facebook post of this photo , “ This is a line of white people forming a barrier between black protestors and the police.
” While the actions of these citizens are both courageous and laudable , it frankly breaks my heart because it is such a vivid demonstration of all that is wrong with law enforcement in this country .
After all , it is supposed to be their job to be “ peace officers.
” With stories about black reporters covering @ @ @ @ @ @ @ white reporters are left alone , it is important to keep in mind that the story might be even deeper than that .
Here is video of a man wearing the kind of gas mask issued to riot police while carrying an umbrella ( on a sunny day ) and wielding a hammer to break storefront windows .
There are those on Twitter who claim to have identified the man as a local police officer , but I ’ ll refrain from doing so until we get something official .
The reason I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ thing or two about how things work with the police department in Minneapolis .
Here is what I tweeted about that recently .
To get some idea of the battle that goes on between the mayor and the police union , here is a story that was reported about a year ago .
In open defiance of Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey , the union that represents the city ’ s roughly 900 rank-and-file police officers announced that it is partnering with a national police organization to offer free “ warrior-style ” training for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ comes in response to Frey ’ s ban of the popular training style , which he first revealed in his State of the City address last week .
Frey said at the time that Minneapolis would become the first department in the country to eliminate “ fear-based ” training… Many policing agencies , including Minneapolis ’ , are moving toward “ guardian ” -oriented tactics , which focus on de-escalating tense situations and use of deadly force as a last resort .
But opponents of this approach argue that such techniques endanger officers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ their guard down .
So the mayor banned the use of this “ warrior-style ” training , with concurrence from the city ’ s police chief .
But the union defied the ban and subsidized the training for officers anyway .
It is also the police union that has defended Officer Derek Chauvin , the one who kept his knee on George Floyd ’ s neck for over seven minutes , when he was the target of 18 prior complaints .
I am sympathetic to those who claim that officers like Chauvin are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ where honorable men and women serve .
I ’ ve personally known police officers who earned the title of being peace officers .
But as they say , “ the fish rots from the head , ” and it is clear that the police union in Minneapolis went rogue a long time ago .
It is also worth noting that there is a political angle to all of this .
Not only did Trump tweet that Mayor Frey is “ very weak , ” he went on to blast out the threat of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ shooting starts.
” I suspect that the president remembers what happened when he came to Minneapolis last fall .
Lt. Bob Kroll , the head of the Minneapolis police union , took the stage prior to President Donald Trump at a downtown rally Thursday night , praising the president for standing behind law enforcement .
“ The mayor said the President wasn ’ t welcome but the Police Federation of Minneapolis begs to differ , ” Kroll told the rally crowd .
Kroll , the president of the Minneapolis Police Federation , wore @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” T-shirt , and spoke at Target Center about how the president supports police departments across the country as they face scrutiny following years of high-profile police shootings .
“ The Obama administration and the handcuffing and oppression of police was despicable , ” Kroll said .
“ The first thing President Trump did when he took office was turn that around … he decided to start let cops do their job , put the handcuffs on the criminals instead of ( on ) us.
” That would be the same president who @ @ @ @ @ @ @ old days.
” In most instances , Democrats are right to defend the unions that represent civil servants from attempts by Republicans to break them .
But at least for the city of Minneapolis , lives are on the line and nothing is going to change until the power of the police federation is held in check .

Back in the summer of 2008, the Republicans held their national convention in my home town of St. Paul, Minnesota. The city braced for protests, while some law enforcement leaders spread lies about reports of coming violence. As a result, police officers from all over the state joined city and county officers to stage a response.
Recognizing the potential for escalation between protesters and police officers, a group of local citizens formed the MN Peace Team to mediate between the two groups.
By Andrew Ciscel
I tell that story because the same thing is happening right now in Minneapolis in the aftermath of the murder of George Floyd. According to the Facebook post of this photo, “This is a line of white people forming a barrier between black protestors and the police.”
By Tim Druck
While the actions of these citizens are both courageous and laudable, it frankly breaks my heart because it is such a vivid demonstration of all that is wrong with law enforcement in this country. After all, it is supposed to be their job to be “peace officers.”
With stories about black reporters covering the unrest in Minneapolis being arrested while white reporters are left alone, it is important to keep in mind that the story might be even deeper than that. Here is video of a man wearing the kind of gas mask issued to riot police while carrying an umbrella (on a sunny day) and wielding a hammer to break storefront windows.
There are those on Twitter who claim to have identified the man as a local police officer, but I’ll refrain from doing so until we get something official.
The reason I am suspicious is that I know a thing or two about how things work with the police department in Minneapolis. Here is what I tweeted about that recently.
To get some idea of the battle that goes on between the mayor and the police union, here is a story that was reported about a year ago.
In open defiance of Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey, the union that represents the city’s roughly 900 rank-and-file police officers announced that it is partnering with a national police organization to offer free “warrior-style” training for any officer who wants it… The announcement comes in response to Frey’s ban of the popular training style, which he first revealed in his State of the City address last week. Frey said at the time that Minneapolis would become the first department in the country to eliminate “fear-based” training… Many policing agencies, including Minneapolis’, are moving toward “guardian”-oriented tactics, which focus on de-escalating tense situations and use of deadly force as a last resort. But opponents of this approach argue that such techniques endanger officers’ lives by teaching them to let their guard down.
So the mayor banned the use of this “warrior-style” training, with concurrence from the city’s police chief. But the union defied the ban and subsidized the training for officers anyway. It is also the police union that has defended Officer Derek Chauvin, the one who kept his knee on George Floyd’s neck for over seven minutes, when he was the target of 18 prior complaints.
I am sympathetic to those who claim that officers like Chauvin are the “bad apples” in departments where honorable men and women serve. I’ve personally known police officers who earned the title of being peace officers. But as they say, “the fish rots from the head,” and it is clear that the police union in Minneapolis went rogue a long time ago.
It is also worth noting that there is a political angle to all of this. Not only did Trump tweet that Mayor Frey is “very weak,” he went on to blast out the threat of “when the looting starts, the shooting starts.” I suspect that the president remembers what happened when he came to Minneapolis last fall.
Lt. Bob Kroll, the head of the Minneapolis police union, took the stage prior to President Donald Trump at a downtown rally Thursday night, praising the president for standing behind law enforcement. “The mayor said the President wasn’t welcome but the Police Federation of Minneapolis begs to differ,” Kroll told the rally crowd. Kroll, the president of the Minneapolis Police Federation, wore a bright red “Cops for Trump” T-shirt, and spoke at Target Center about how the president supports police departments across the country as they face scrutiny following years of high-profile police shootings. “The Obama administration and the handcuffing and oppression of police was despicable,” Kroll said. “The first thing President Trump did when he took office was turn that around … he decided to start let cops do their job, put the handcuffs on the criminals instead of (on) us.”
That would be the same president who likes to talk about “the good old days.”
In most instances, Democrats are right to defend the unions that represent civil servants from attempts by Republicans to break them. But at least for the city of Minneapolis, lives are on the line and nothing is going to change until the power of the police federation is held in check.


washingtonmonthly--2020-05-29--Why Does Trump Defy Congress to Arm the Saudis?

With so many bad things going on simultaneously , it ’ s easy for some things to go unnoticed or be forgotten .
Earlier in May , State Department Inspector General Steve Linick was fired by President Trump .
This was done at the request of Secretary of State Mike Pompeo .
The initial suspicion was that Pompeo didn ’ t appreciate being investigated for using an employee as a personal servant for himself and his wife .
But it was later revealed that Linick “ was in the final stages of an investigation into whether the administration had acted @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with respect to Iran to justify an arms sale to Saudi Arabia .
Specifically , Linick was trying to establish whether this bit of jujutsu passed constitutional muster .
Republicans and Democrats were enraged last year when the administration declared an emergency over Iran to bypass Congress and move forward with an $ 8 billion arms sale to Saudi Arabia and other Persian Gulf nations… …Bipartisan outrage erupted in Congress last year over the United States ’ relationship with Saudi Arabia after the administration ’ s tepid response to the death of Jamal @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Virginia resident .
Lawmakers have also blamed the administration for aggravating the Yemen crisis and for the killing of civilians there in the five-year civil war , which has helped create the world ’ s greatest humanitarian crisis .
But each time lawmakers have tried to curtail Washington ’ s relationship with Riyadh , Mr. Trump has intervened .
The president used his first veto to reject legislation that would have ended the United States ’ military involvement in Saudi Arabia ’ s war in Yemen , and he later vetoed a bipartisan @ @ @ @ @ @ @ dollars of munitions to the kingdom .
I guess it ’ s a judgment call whether a president can circumvent a congressional hold on an arms sale by disingenuously citing the threat of a separate country .
But the administration is apparently preparing a repeat performance : The new proposal would effectively build off the sale pushed through over Congress ’ s objections last year , sending an additional 7,500 precision-guided missiles from Raytheon to Riyadh on top of the 60,000 bombs Saudi officials bought last summer , according to a congressional aide @ @ @ @ @ @ @ anonymity because it had not yet been officially turned over to Congress .
As of December , roughly a third of those munitions had been delivered .
Perhaps more significant , it would allow Raytheon to expand an already approved relationship with the Saudis to build high-tech bomb parts in Saudi Arabia .
Two weeks ago , the FBI inadvertently published the name of a Saudi diplomat who helped two of the 9/11 hijackers while they were in the United States .
It ’ s unlikely the man did this on his own @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that one of the gunmen in the 2019 terrorist attack on a military base in Pensacola was sent here by the Saudis to train despite being in regular contact with al-Qaeda .
Congress has already made it clear that it does not want any further involvement in Yemen ’ s civil war and that it wants to halt arm sales to the Saudi kingdom .
President Trump has justified the continuance of these sales by arguing that they create jobs , but the new Raytheon deal is only creating jobs in Saudi Arabia @ @ @ @ @ @ @ administration is so hellbent on defying Congress , but personal enrichment or bribery has to be considered a possible motive .
The foreign service is strongly opposed to the sales at the senior level , and Kushner ’ s Middle East peace initiative is as dead as the dodo .
Congress can only stop the sales if they can override a presidential veto , which is unlikely .
Plus , those sales will still be premised on a phony state of emergency with Iran .
It ’ s easy to see why the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the picture , but Congress should try to get its hands on the preliminary report he circulated within the State Department in March before the COVID-19 outbreak curtailed his investigation .

With so many bad things going on simultaneously, it’s easy for some things to go unnoticed or be forgotten. Earlier in May, State Department Inspector General Steve Linick was fired by President Trump. This was done at the request of Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. The initial suspicion was that Pompeo didn’t appreciate being investigated for using an employee as a personal servant for himself and his wife. But it was later revealed that Linick “was in the final stages of an investigation into whether the administration had acted illegally when officials declared the emergency” with respect to Iran to justify an arms sale to Saudi Arabia. Specifically, Linick was trying to establish whether this bit of jujutsu passed constitutional muster.
Republicans and Democrats were enraged last year when the administration declared an emergency over Iran to bypass Congress and move forward with an $8 billion arms sale to Saudi Arabia and other Persian Gulf nations… …Bipartisan outrage erupted in Congress last year over the United States’ relationship with Saudi Arabia after the administration’s tepid response to the death of Jamal Khashoggi, the Washington Post columnist and Virginia resident. Lawmakers have also blamed the administration for aggravating the Yemen crisis and for the killing of civilians there in the five-year civil war, which has helped create the world’s greatest humanitarian crisis. But each time lawmakers have tried to curtail Washington’s relationship with Riyadh, Mr. Trump has intervened. The president used his first veto to reject legislation that would have ended the United States’ military involvement in Saudi Arabia’s war in Yemen, and he later vetoed a bipartisan measure blocking the sale of billions of dollars of munitions to the kingdom.
I guess it’s a judgment call whether a president can circumvent a congressional hold on an arms sale by disingenuously citing the threat of a separate country. But the administration is apparently preparing a repeat performance:
The new proposal would effectively build off the sale pushed through over Congress’s objections last year, sending an additional 7,500 precision-guided missiles from Raytheon to Riyadh on top of the 60,000 bombs Saudi officials bought last summer, according to a congressional aide who described it on the condition of anonymity because it had not yet been officially turned over to Congress. As of December, roughly a third of those munitions had been delivered. Perhaps more significant, it would allow Raytheon to expand an already approved relationship with the Saudis to build high-tech bomb parts in Saudi Arabia.
Two weeks ago, the FBI inadvertently published the name of a Saudi diplomat who helped two of the 9/11 hijackers while they were in the United States. It’s unlikely the man did this on his own initiative. Separately, the FBI reported that one of the gunmen in the 2019 terrorist attack on a military base in Pensacola was sent here by the Saudis to train despite being in regular contact with al-Qaeda. Congress has already made it clear that it does not want any further involvement in Yemen’s civil war and that it wants to halt arm sales to the Saudi kingdom.
President Trump has justified the continuance of these sales by arguing that they create jobs, but the new Raytheon deal is only creating jobs in Saudi Arabia. It’s unclear why the administration is so hellbent on defying Congress, but personal enrichment or bribery has to be considered a possible motive. The foreign service is strongly opposed to the sales at the senior level, and Kushner’s Middle East peace initiative is as dead as the dodo.
Congress can only stop the sales if they can override a presidential veto, which is unlikely. Plus, those sales will still be premised on a phony state of emergency with Iran. It’s easy to see why the inspector general needed to be removed from the picture, but Congress should try to get its hands on the preliminary report he circulated within the State Department in March before the COVID-19 outbreak curtailed his investigation.


washingtonmonthly--2020-05-29--Does America Have the Data It Needs to Fight Coronavirus?

As COVID-19 began to spread across the United States in early March , Alexis Madrigal realized something important was missing .
The nation didn ’ t just lack enough ventilators , PPE , and other critical medical equipment to fight the virus .
It lacked enough data .
Madrigal , an Atlantic staff writer covering the pandemic , wanted a comprehensive collection of statistics on the number of cases , hospitalizations , and deaths from each state to analyze and make sense of the crisis .
He quickly learned that there was no single entity taking on this task .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ about it .
Alongside fellow Atlantic reporter Robinson Meyer , data scientist Jeff Hammerbacher , and content strategist Erin Kissane , he created the COVID Tracking Project , a volunteer organization that collects state-by-state data on coronavirus testing and outcomes , and then works with nonprofits and local and national newsrooms to help the public better understand the outbreak and what needs to be done to address it .
I recently caught up with Madrigal to find out more about the project and what he ’ s discovered about America ’ s handling @ @ @ @ @ @ @ point of being the country ’ s leading COVID-19 data aggregator .
The following Q & A has been edited and condensed for clarity .
What ’ s the genesis behind the COVID-19 tracking project ?
What led you to create it ?
I had been tracking the work of a genomic epidemiologist named Trevor Bedford .
He had been able to show that the virus had been spreading in the U.S. for quite some time .
Why didn ’ t we know that ?
When my reporting partner and I , Rob @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this , it became clear that the problem was that the U.S. wasn ’ t testing enough .
We basically started creating a spreadsheet , pulling from states ’ websites , emailing them , trying to gather how many people had been tested .
When we published that story , which contains a comprehensive state-by-state accounting of how many people had been tested , it was fewer than 2000 people .
Seconds after the story published , a friend of mine , Jeff Hammerbacher , emailed to say , “ Hey , did @ @ @ @ @ @ @ It turned out that we ’ d basically been tracking the same data .
So we decided to team up .
The next day , the last co-founder came on , Erin Kissane .
There was no place where you could go to see how many tests have been performed in the United States , even though everyone was saying how important it was .
Do you think the federal government should be offering this service , probably through the CDC ?
And do you feel like you had to do this work @ @ @ @ @ @ @ We would have never done this work if the CDC had been doing it .
The CDC has begun to put some information onto what they ’ re calling the “ CDC COVID Tracker ” website .
The problem is that they ’ re not providing historical data .
We need to be able to see the trends .
Right now , the CDC is only providing current day snapshots .
People need to know what happened before so they can predict what ’ s going to happen in the future .
We @ @ @ @ @ @ @ CDC data .
Since that report came out , we ’ ve realized the CDC was including antibody tests in their totals , which is a huge problem .
Mixing those results , as one expert told us , makes those numbers uninterpretable .
Honestly , it ’ s the kind of mistake you just can not believe .
It throws off some of the very key measures that people are using to try to decide when to allow increased social activity .
Government officials have spent so much time preparing for a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a plan , though , that really thought about how data would flow .
If one outcome of this crisis is that people take into account that they ’ re going to need high quality data to reduce uncertainty and make better decisions , that will be a great service that we have provided .
Ok , so what exactly does the Covid Tracking Project do ?
How has your work changed as the pandemic has progressed ?
The COVID Tracking Project compiles and analyzes state level data .
In practice , that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ who go to many different states ’ websites and compile it into a spreadsheet .
We have teams of people who double check that work .
We have teams of people who do outreach to states , and others who try to get the quality of data reporting improved .
We have a large wing that works to make this data accessible to people for different types of modeling .
At the end of the day , the COVID Tracking Project takes the state data and makes it accessible to a wide variety @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , everything from just about every major newsroom to modelers , inside and outside the government .
Is there an analysis component on your part , as well ?
I think that people tend to think of data as a raw good , but in fact , it ’ s sort of a manufactured entity .
That ’ s true at every level in data collection .
If a state says “ total tests , ” does that mean that ’ s the number of people they ’ ve tested or the number @ @ @ @ @ @ @ We are trying to help people contextualize the numbers .
It ’ s not so much about telling people what to think about the numbers .
You have a “ Data Quality Grade ” listed for each state .
How is that determined ?
It ’ s really about the comprehensiveness of the state ’ s reporting .
We have lowered states grades who were mixing antibody tests and viral tests because of what that does to their interpretability .
Most of the time , it ’ s about what a state reports @ @ @ @ @ @ @ different categories and see what states are reporting in these different places .
And then we say , if this approach is the best way of reporting this metric for whatever reason , then maybe every state should report like that .
Then reporting overall would be better .
Your website says that you ’ re helping local newsrooms .
How are you doing that ?
Local reporters are really good at flushing things out of the states .
We ’ re good at providing the national context that allows them to understand @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with other states .
Then , they can go to state officials and say , “ Hey , what ’ s going on with it ?
” It ’ s worked a lot that way too with different local publications around race and ethnicity data .
We can say to them , look , 47 other states are already doing this .
Then , of course , the more pressure the reporters put on the states to do better data reporting , the better our database gets .
We ’ re able to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for all these local newsrooms , because they couldn ’ t necessarily do that all on their own .
They don ’ t have those resources .
How many volunteers do you have ?
What responsibilities do they cover ?
Our Slack has more than 500 people in it .
The active volunteer base right now is probably around 160 .
They have a lot of different roles .
At times , we ’ ve covered 35 press conferences in a day , mostly to just shake free data out of those and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ states are saying .
It ’ s a big , big project , We have scientists and epidemiologists and public health people working on the data .
We also have data scientists and journalists .
Every kind of person that you might imagine might be on a project like this is on the project .
What have you learned about how testing is dispersed across the country ?
The rates in testing are determined by a few different factors .
Places that had really big outbreaks tend to have large testing operations .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ developed a very close relationship with a particular laboratory tended to do quite well in the early testing rounds .
It ’ s hard to say that there ’ s one overriding factor that leads a state to do a lot of testing per capita .
It ’ s kind of all over the map .
Over the next few months , I think we ’ re going to see the American innovation machine really go to town on this problem .
There are some communities where lots of people are unemployed , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that ’ s where we need the most support .
Already , black people dying at much higher rates , Latinos are overly represented in the cases .
I expect that that is only going to go up .
While this virus can affect everybody ’ s body roughly in the same way , being wealthy is quite protective , because you don ’ t have to go to a job , you work from a computer , you can leave a city where there are lots of infections .
There ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ But all you have to do is look at a ZIP code map of New York to see what ’ s going on .
Do you have any plans as of now to expand the project ?
How will you adapt as circumstances change over time ?
We ’ re interested in county level data particularly for race and ethnicity purposes .
And we ’ re pretty interested in what the possibilities are for ZIP code level data within Metros .
We also want to incorporate socioeconomic data into the racial and ethnic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ continue putting out this dataset and continue advocating for the transparency that the country needs , and making sure that people are able to connect the individual pieces of data .
From what you ’ ve seen , what policy changes need to be made to address the data problems you ’ re dealing with ?
At the end of the day , we need legislation that provides national standards for data reporting .
And that system needs to be adequately funded .
We need to protect all of our people in this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ t , it ’ s going to be really difficult to control this disease .
People have to know what ’ s happening so they can make good decisions .
And we have to understand that the data is not a raw good , it has to be manufactured and put together .
That takes time and effort , it takes people , it takes money .
This is crucial to support the state health departments and hospitals that are generating the data .
We can ’ t just assume data will be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s how we can make a big impact—by putting together the right data infrastructure at the state and national levels .
If you want a winning nonpartisan issue around coronavirus , fixing our data collection infrastructure is it .

As COVID-19 began to spread across the United States in early March, Alexis Madrigal realized something important was missing. The nation didn’t just lack enough ventilators, PPE, and other critical medical equipment to fight the virus. It lacked enough data.
Madrigal, an Atlantic staff writer covering the pandemic, wanted a comprehensive collection of statistics on the number of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths from each state to analyze and make sense of the crisis. He quickly learned that there was no single entity taking on this task.
So, he decided to do something about it. Alongside fellow Atlantic reporter Robinson Meyer, data scientist Jeff Hammerbacher, and content strategist Erin Kissane, he created the COVID Tracking Project, a volunteer organization that collects state-by-state data on coronavirus testing and outcomes, and then works with nonprofits and local and national newsrooms to help the public better understand the outbreak and what needs to be done to address it.
I recently caught up with Madrigal to find out more about the project and what he’s discovered about America’s handling of the crisis from his unique vantage point of being the country’s leading COVID-19 data aggregator.
The following Q&A has been edited and condensed for clarity.
What’s the genesis behind the COVID-19 tracking project? What led you to create it?
I had been tracking the work of a genomic epidemiologist named Trevor Bedford. He had been able to show that the virus had been spreading in the U.S. for quite some time. Why didn’t we know that? When my reporting partner and I, Rob Meyer, started to really think about this, it became clear that the problem was that the U.S. wasn’t testing enough.
We basically started creating a spreadsheet, pulling from states’ websites, emailing them, trying to gather how many people had been tested. When we published that story, which contains a comprehensive state-by-state accounting of how many people had been tested, it was fewer than 2000 people. Seconds after the story published, a friend of mine, Jeff Hammerbacher, emailed to say, “Hey, did use my spreadsheet for this?” It turned out that we’d basically been tracking the same data. So we decided to team up. The next day, the last co-founder came on, Erin Kissane. There was no place where you could go to see how many tests have been performed in the United States, even though everyone was saying how important it was.
Do you think the federal government should be offering this service, probably through the CDC? And do you feel like you had to do this work because the government wasn’t?
We would have never done this work if the CDC had been doing it. The CDC has begun to put some information onto what they’re calling the “CDC COVID Tracker” website. The problem is that they’re not providing historical data. We need to be able to see the trends. Right now, the CDC is only providing current day snapshots. People need to know what happened before so they can predict what’s going to happen in the future. We just did a large analysis of the CDC data. Since that report came out, we’ve realized the CDC was including antibody tests in their totals, which is a huge problem. Mixing those results, as one expert told us, makes those numbers uninterpretable.
”If one outcome of this crisis is that people take into account that they’re going to need high quality data to reduce uncertainty and make better decisions, that will be a great service that we have provided.”
Honestly, it’s the kind of mistake you just cannot believe. It throws off some of the very key measures that people are using to try to decide when to allow increased social activity.
Government officials have spent so much time preparing for a pandemic. I haven’t seen a plan, though, that really thought about how data would flow. If one outcome of this crisis is that people take into account that they’re going to need high quality data to reduce uncertainty and make better decisions, that will be a great service that we have provided.
Ok, so what exactly does the Covid Tracking Project do? How has your work changed as the pandemic has progressed?
The COVID Tracking Project compiles and analyzes state level data. In practice, that means that we have dozens of volunteers who go to many different states’ websites and compile it into a spreadsheet. We have teams of people who double check that work. We have teams of people who do outreach to states, and others who try to get the quality of data reporting improved. We have a large wing that works to make this data accessible to people for different types of modeling.
At the end of the day, the COVID Tracking Project takes the state data and makes it accessible to a wide variety of people for different kinds of uses, everything from just about every major newsroom to modelers, inside and outside the government.
Is there an analysis component on your part, as well?
I think that people tend to think of data as a raw good, but in fact, it’s sort of a manufactured entity. That’s true at every level in data collection. If a state says “total tests,” does that mean that’s the number of people they’ve tested or the number of specimens they’ve tested? We are trying to help people contextualize the numbers. It’s not so much about telling people what to think about the numbers.
You have a “Data Quality Grade” listed for each state. How is that determined?
It’s really about the comprehensiveness of the state’s reporting. We have lowered states grades who were mixing antibody tests and viral tests because of what that does to their interpretability. Most of the time, it’s about what a state reports or not. We look across many different categories and see what states are reporting in these different places. And then we say, if this approach is the best way of reporting this metric for whatever reason, then maybe every state should report like that. Then reporting overall would be better.
Your website says that you’re helping local newsrooms. How are you doing that?
Local reporters are really good at flushing things out of the states. We’re good at providing the national context that allows them to understand if their state’s practices align with other states. Then, they can go to state officials and say, “Hey, what’s going on with it?”
It’s worked a lot that way too with different local publications around race and ethnicity data. We can say to them, look, 47 other states are already doing this. Then, of course, the more pressure the reporters put on the states to do better data reporting, the better our database gets. We’re able to provide almost a kind of data team for all these local newsrooms, because they couldn’t necessarily do that all on their own. They don’t have those resources.
How many volunteers do you have? What responsibilities do they cover?
Our Slack has more than 500 people in it. The active volunteer base right now is probably around 160. They have a lot of different roles. At times, we’ve covered 35 press conferences in a day, mostly to just shake free data out of those and to increase our awareness of what the states are saying. It’s a big, big project, We have scientists and epidemiologists and public health people working on the data. We also have data scientists and journalists. Every kind of person that you might imagine might be on a project like this is on the project.
What have you learned about how testing is dispersed across the country?
The rates in testing are determined by a few different factors. Places that had really big outbreaks tend to have large testing operations. States that either already had or rapidly developed a very close relationship with a particular laboratory tended to do quite well in the early testing rounds. It’s hard to say that there’s one overriding factor that leads a state to do a lot of testing per capita. It’s kind of all over the map.
”We have to understand that the data is not a raw good, it has to be manufactured and put together. That takes time and effort, it takes people, it takes money.”
Over the next few months, I think we’re going to see the American innovation machine really go to town on this problem. There are some communities where lots of people are unemployed, lots of people are undocumented, and that’s where we need the most support. Already, black people dying at much higher rates, Latinos are overly represented in the cases. I expect that that is only going to go up. While this virus can affect everybody’s body roughly in the same way, being wealthy is quite protective, because you don’t have to go to a job, you work from a computer, you can leave a city where there are lots of infections. There’s all kinds of reasons for that. But all you have to do is look at a ZIP code map of New York to see what’s going on.
Do you have any plans as of now to expand the project? How will you adapt as circumstances change over time?
We’re interested in county level data particularly for race and ethnicity purposes. And we’re pretty interested in what the possibilities are for ZIP code level data within Metros. We also want to incorporate socioeconomic data into the racial and ethnic data. The core thing is to continue putting out this dataset and continue advocating for the transparency that the country needs, and making sure that people are able to connect the individual pieces of data.
From what you’ve seen, what policy changes need to be made to address the data problems you’re dealing with?
At the end of the day, we need legislation that provides national standards for data reporting. And that system needs to be adequately funded. We need to protect all of our people in this country, because if we don’t, it’s going to be really difficult to control this disease.
People have to know what’s happening so they can make good decisions. And we have to understand that the data is not a raw good, it has to be manufactured and put together. That takes time and effort, it takes people, it takes money. This is crucial to support the state health departments and hospitals that are generating the data. We can’t just assume data will be there when we need it. That’s how we can make a big impact—by putting together the right data infrastructure at the state and national levels. If you want a winning nonpartisan issue around coronavirus, fixing our data collection infrastructure is it.