washingtonmonthly--2020-11-05--Republican Women Made Big Gains in the House. Here’s Why.

House Republican women have broken a record .
In 2021 , the largest ever freshman class of GOP women will take seats in the chamber .
In fact , the cohort of Republican women in the House may double in size when new members arrive in January .
At least 23 Republican women were elected to the House this week , 13 of whom will be new to Congress , according to data from the Center for Women and American Politics at Rutgers University .
Several won swing districts that had flipped blue in 2018 .
Eight Republican women have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and if Georgia ’ s Kelley Loeffler holds on to her seat , they will match their current record of nine sitting women Senators .
“ There is no doubt about it .
Last night was truly the night of Republican women , ” tweeted Elise Stefanik , a representative from New York who helped lead the effort to recruit and support Republican women candidates in this election cycle .
Does that make this the “ Year of the Republican Woman ” that several outlets predicted ?
If the yardstick is GOP women @ @ @ @ @ @ @ : Yes .
After that blue wave election , the female Republican cohort in the House dwindled from 23 to 13—less than three percent of all representatives .
But if House Republican women ’ s success is measured against that of Democrats , then this week ’ s wins are modest at best .
Democratic women will hold at least 83 seats in the next House as of this writing , and all 17 sitting female Democratic senators have been re-elected .
( Compare that to 23 Republican women elected to the House @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Some House races are yet to be called , and it ’ s unclear whether Democrats will ultimately match their previous record , set in the 2018 election , of 89 women heading for the House .
This week ’ s election is “ a good news story for Republican women , ” says Deborah Walsh , director of the Rutgers University center .
“ But I really can ’ t stress enough the distance that the party still needs to go achieve gender parity.
” How did Republicans begin to turn @ @ @ @ @ @ @ part , goes to new Republican groups like Stefanik ’ s E-PAC ( the “ E ” stands for “ Engage , Empower , Elevate , and Elect ” ) , as well as Winning for Women , VIEW PAC , and Maggie ’ s List ( a riff on Democrats ’ Emily ’ s List , but named for Republican legislator Margaret Chase Smith ) .
They recruited a record number of Republican women to run for congress in 2020 , focusing on candidates with experience as state legislators , said Michele @ @ @ @ @ @ @ University who studies women in Congress .
And critically , PACs like Stefanik ’ s gave to Republican women in primary contests , something the Republican Party rarely does .
In several districts , Republican women competed against Democratic women who had won office in 2018 .
Ashley Hinson , a TV reporter , turned Republican state legislator , beat Abbey Finkenauer , a freshman Democrat , in the race for Iowa ’ s first district .
In Oklahoma ’ s traditionally red fifth district , Stephanie Bice , a state senator , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ flipped the fifth in 2018 .
As of this writing , at least six Republican women have flipped House seats .
Some of those wins didn ’ t come as a surprise ; many of the seats Democratic women won in 2018 were purple at best .
Before Horn won , for example , Oklahoma ’ s fifth district had been led by a Republican for 40 years .
Donald Trump won the district by nearly 14 points in 2016 .
Republican women ’ s wins in swing districts could increase the party @ @ @ @ @ @ @ campaigns in the next cycle .
But in the longer term , these victories are less helpful for growing the number of Republican women in Congress .
Historically , women have been perceived as more moderate than their male counterparts in the GOP and have tended to serve in moderate districts where turnover is higher .
To build their ranks sustainably , Republican women need to win safe seats and stay in them for years , building seniority and a path for others to follow .
The women winning swing districts in 2020 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2024 .
The incoming Republican women will reshape the House in other ways .
Amongst the wave of Democratic women elected in 2018 were several mothers of young children , like Katie Porter , a single mother of three , Mikie Sherrill , who has four kids , and several others .
Unpredictable work hours on the Hill and the distance members travel from home to get there can make it difficult for primary caregivers—disproportionately mothers—to serve .
Now , more Republican women will be joining that cohort , including Hinson , who @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a single mom of two , newly elected to represent South Carolina ’ s first district ; Victoria Spartz , who has two daughters and who just won the election for Indiana ’ s fifth district ; and potentially Beth Van Duyne , a single mother who is leading in the vote count for Texas ’ s twenty-fourth district .
A couple of Republican women headed to Congress share a more unusual distinction : support , or at least sympathy , for QAnon .
The conspiracy theory is sprawling but centers on the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is secretly combatting a shadowy group of Democratic politicians and celebrities who abuse children and worship Satan .
Lauren Boebert , a restauranter and hard-right gun activist who won Colorado ’ s third district , has expressed enthusiasm for the fringe movement but walked back her support under pressure .
Marjorie Taylor Greene , who won Georgia ’ s fourteenth district , has supported the theory since 2017 , writing pro-QAnon articles as a “ correspondent ” for a conspiracy website , and posting videos in which she praises Q ( the anonymous @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I ’ m very excited about that now there ’ s a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to take this global cabal of Satan-worshipping pedophiles out , ” she said in one now-private YouTube video , according to the Washington Post .
Despite its wins , the Republican women ’ s congressional caucus is still a shadow of the Democrats ’ —a partisan gap that has widened over the past couple of decades .
About two-thirds of female Senators are Democrats , and that ’ s unlikely to change significantly .
Democratic women outnumber Republican women @ @ @ @ @ @ @ one in the current Congress , and while that partisan gap will narrow somewhat with the newly elected members , it won ’ t be close .
As of Thursday evening , 83 Democratic women , including incumbents and newcomers , had won House seats .
Republican women ’ s gains , though , could provide momentum for GOP women candidates in future elections .
Outside groups should have an easier time getting the ear of party leadership , says Swers .
It may also help convince more first-time female candidates to run @ @ @ @ @ @ @ make a trend , ” says Walsh , who runs the Rutgers Center .
“ Will this continue ?
Will the party put resources in ?
That ’ s what we ’ re going to need to watch for in 2022.
” She added , with a laugh , “ I can ’ t believe I ’ ve uttered ‘ the election year 2022 .
’ ”

House Republican women have broken a record. In 2021, the largest ever freshman class of GOP women will take seats in the chamber. In fact, the cohort of Republican women in the House may double in size when new members arrive in January.
At least 23 Republican women were elected to the House this week, 13 of whom will be new to Congress, according to data from the Center for Women and American Politics at Rutgers University. Several won swing districts that had flipped blue in 2018. Eight Republican women have been elected to the next Senate, and if Georgia’s Kelley Loeffler holds on to her seat, they will match their current record of nine sitting women Senators.
“There is no doubt about it. Last night was truly the night of Republican women,” tweeted Elise Stefanik, a representative from New York who helped lead the effort to recruit and support Republican women candidates in this election cycle.
Does that make this the “Year of the Republican Woman” that several outlets predicted? If the yardstick is GOP women’s performance in the 2018 midterms: Yes. After that blue wave election, the female Republican cohort in the House dwindled from 23 to 13—less than three percent of all representatives.
But if House Republican women’s success is measured against that of Democrats, then this week’s wins are modest at best. Democratic women will hold at least 83 seats in the next House as of this writing, and all 17 sitting female Democratic senators have been re-elected. (Compare that to 23 Republican women elected to the House and eight elected to the Senate). Some House races are yet to be called, and it’s unclear whether Democrats will ultimately match their previous record, set in the 2018 election, of 89 women heading for the House.
This week’s election is “a good news story for Republican women,” says Deborah Walsh, director of the Rutgers University center. “But I really can’t stress enough the distance that the party still needs to go achieve gender parity.”
How did Republicans begin to turn it around? The credit, in part, goes to new Republican groups like Stefanik’s E-PAC (the “E” stands for “Engage, Empower, Elevate, and Elect”), as well as Winning for Women, VIEW PAC, and Maggie’s List (a riff on Democrats’ Emily’s List, but named for Republican legislator Margaret Chase Smith). They recruited a record number of Republican women to run for congress in 2020, focusing on candidates with experience as state legislators, said Michele Swers, a political scientist at Georgetown University who studies women in Congress. And critically, PACs like Stefanik’s gave to Republican women in primary contests, something the Republican Party rarely does.
In several districts, Republican women competed against Democratic women who had won office in 2018. Ashley Hinson, a TV reporter, turned Republican state legislator, beat Abbey Finkenauer, a freshman Democrat, in the race for Iowa’s first district. In Oklahoma’s traditionally red fifth district, Stephanie Bice, a state senator, edged out Kendra Horn, who had flipped the fifth in 2018. As of this writing, at least six Republican women have flipped House seats. Some of those wins didn’t come as a surprise; many of the seats Democratic women won in 2018 were purple at best. Before Horn won, for example, Oklahoma’s fifth district had been led by a Republican for 40 years. Donald Trump won the district by nearly 14 points in 2016.
Republican women’s wins in swing districts could increase the party’s investment in women’s campaigns in the next cycle. But in the longer term, these victories are less helpful for growing the number of Republican women in Congress. Historically, women have been perceived as more moderate than their male counterparts in the GOP and have tended to serve in moderate districts where turnover is higher. To build their ranks sustainably, Republican women need to win safe seats and stay in them for years, building seniority and a path for others to follow. The women winning swing districts in 2020 could be swept away in 2022 or 2024.
The incoming Republican women will reshape the House in other ways. Amongst the wave of Democratic women elected in 2018 were several mothers of young children, like Katie Porter, a single mother of three, Mikie Sherrill, who has four kids, and several others. Unpredictable work hours on the Hill and the distance members travel from home to get there can make it difficult for primary caregivers—disproportionately mothers—to serve. Now, more Republican women will be joining that cohort, including Hinson, who has two sons; Nancy Mace, a single mom of two, newly elected to represent South Carolina’s first district; Victoria Spartz, who has two daughters and who just won the election for Indiana’s fifth district; and potentially Beth Van Duyne, a single mother who is leading in the vote count for Texas’s twenty-fourth district.
A couple of Republican women headed to Congress share a more unusual distinction: support, or at least sympathy, for QAnon. The conspiracy theory is sprawling but centers on the (baseless) belief that the president is secretly combatting a shadowy group of Democratic politicians and celebrities who abuse children and worship Satan. Lauren Boebert, a restauranter and hard-right gun activist who won Colorado’s third district, has expressed enthusiasm for the fringe movement but walked back her support under pressure. Marjorie Taylor Greene, who won Georgia’s fourteenth district, has supported the theory since 2017, writing pro-QAnon articles as a “correspondent” for a conspiracy website, and posting videos in which she praises Q (the anonymous leader of the movement). “I’m very excited about that now there’s a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to take this global cabal of Satan-worshipping pedophiles out,” she said in one now-private YouTube video, according to the Washington Post.
Despite its wins, the Republican women’s congressional caucus is still a shadow of the Democrats’—a partisan gap that has widened over the past couple of decades. About two-thirds of female Senators are Democrats, and that’s unlikely to change significantly. Democratic women outnumber Republican women in the House more than six to one in the current Congress, and while that partisan gap will narrow somewhat with the newly elected members, it won’t be close. As of Thursday evening, 83 Democratic women, including incumbents and newcomers, had won House seats.
Republican women’s gains, though, could provide momentum for GOP women candidates in future elections. Outside groups should have an easier time getting the ear of party leadership, says Swers. It may also help convince more first-time female candidates to run.
“One cycle doesn’t make a trend,” says Walsh, who runs the Rutgers Center. “Will this continue? Will the party put resources in? That’s what we’re going to need to watch for in 2022.” She added, with a laugh, “I can’t believe I’ve uttered ‘the election year 2022.’”


washingtonmonthly--2020-11-05--Six Election Day Rumors About Voting, Mail-In Ballots That Are Totally Bogus

As we know by now , one of the challenges of the digital revolution has been the ease with which bad actors can spread lies and misinformation .
Russia , for instance , famously influenced the 2016 election by publishing “ articles ” that had no basis in fact .
They often went viral , like one that said Pope Francis had endorsed Donald Trump .
The 2020 election , thus far , seems to have had less foreign interference than 2016 .
But there has still been a stream of misinformation that threatens to sow discord if enough people @ @ @ @ @ @ @ we ’ re laying out some of the worst falsehoods to have circulated on social media and elsewhere—separating fact from fiction .
On Election Day , the Washington Post reported that roughly 300,000 mail-in ballots could not be traced .
As one Post journalist tweeted , these ballots entered processing facilities but never left them , suggesting they had not been delivered to local election boards and thus not counted .
This led to a collective freak-out that hundreds of thousands of voters had been disenfranchised .
According to multiple sources familiar with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ were not scanned because letter carriers and postal workers were following a directive from the national headquarters to avoid taking election mail through processing centers .
Instead , the ballots were sorted at local post offices , where they were post-marked and delivered directly to local clerks , all to speed up the process , not slow or thwart it .
This was an idea that came from the major postal unions , who wanted to prevent ballot delivery delays , as the Washington Monthly first reported last month .
So , while @ @ @ @ @ @ @ number of ballots because they were not scanned at processing warehouses , that does not mean they were not delivered .
In fact , it means those ballots were delivered quicker than they otherwise would have been .
2 .
Is Arizona invalidating ballots because voters filled them out with Sharpie pens given to them by poll workers ?
No .
Of course not .
This is a lie spread by Republicans .
such as Matt Schlapp , chair of the American Conservative Union “ On # Election Day , [ Maricopa County @ @ @ @ @ @ @ voters to use # Sharpie pens , ” he tweeted .
“ Now it ’ s a problem ?
How convenient !
” The rumor , referred to as SharpieGate , has gone viral .
Arizona officials emphatically deny any truth to this claim ; and that votes recorded with Sharpies are not being thrown out .
“ Those ballots are being counted , ” Arizona ’ s secretary of state , Katie Hobbs , said on local television .
3 .
Have there really been more ballots cast in Wisconsin than there @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rumor seems to have originated on Twitter .
“ How the hell are there more votes than voters in WI ?
” tweeted George Papadopoulos , a minor figure in the Russia investigation .
The answer is simple : There isn ’ t .
Wisconsin is one of 21 states , as well as the District of Columbia , that allow for same-day registration .
Even still , the Badger State recorded more than 3.2 million votes , its highest turnout since 2004 .
Still , according to the Wisconsin Elections Commission , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ registered voters as of November 1 .
4 .
Were there more than 40,000 rejected ballots in Georgia ’ s DeKalb County ?
This falsehood has the potential to be combustible .
Georgia ’ s count could decide the election .
On Wednesday , Gill Freeman , a former candidate for the Georgia State Senate , tweeted that “ 40,000 rejected vote by mail ballots in DeKalb County need to be cured by Friday or they will be tossed ( mismatch signature , etc . )
, verify your ballot status.
” Quickly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 40,000 retweets , including from singer John Legend and actress Kerry Washington .
The only problem : It ’ s not true .
DeKalb County had only rejected 202 ballots that needed to be cured , meaning contacting voters and notifying them of a problem with their absentee ballot , giving them a chance to fix it .
The tweet has since been deleted .
5 .
Are Democrats trying to steal the election ?
Fox Business anchor Maria Bartiromo tweeted a Federalist article with the non-subtle headline “ Yes , Democrats Are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Wisconsin , and Pennsylvania.
” ( Bartiromo has appeared to have since deleted her tweet , which was flagged by Twitter . )
This is not the only story the Federalist has run in the last two days to raise doubt in the election process , effectively helping the Trump camp fuel its disinformation campaign .
This storyline is only true if you equate counting and stealing .
There is nothing sinister about counting ballots after Election Day .
In fact , it ’ s been the norm for decades .
It @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and the Republicans in key swing states engineered it so that the counting of absentee ballots—which polling indicated would lean overwhelmingly Democratic—would take longer , all to ensure a delay that would provide Trump a window of opportunity to claim fraud and contest the election .
We warned about this in September , after GOP lawmakers blocked legislation in multiple states , including Pennsylvania , to start counting absentee ballots before Election Day , as other states with a history of mail voting do , such as Florida and Ohio .
6 .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ true ?
As to be expected , the number one source of misinformation is Donald Trump .
Trump held a press conference early Wednesday morning spewing a number of lies : that he won key states he has not ; that he has won the election overall ; that votes are being “ found ” rather than counted ; that Pennsylvania elections officials are trying to make his lead disappear .
We could go on .
But the point is pretty clear : Americans shouldn ’ t believe what they hear from their @ @

As we know by now, one of the challenges of the digital revolution has been the ease with which bad actors can spread lies and misinformation. Russia, for instance, famously influenced the 2016 election by publishing “articles” that had no basis in fact. They often went viral, like one that said Pope Francis had endorsed Donald Trump.
The 2020 election, thus far, seems to have had less foreign interference than 2016. But there has still been a stream of misinformation that threatens to sow discord if enough people believe it. That’s why we’re laying out some of the worst falsehoods to have circulated on social media and elsewhere—separating fact from fiction.
1. Did the Postal Service lose 300,000 mail ballots?
On Election Day, the Washington Post reported that roughly 300,000 mail-in ballots could not be traced. As one Post journalist tweeted, these ballots entered processing facilities but never left them, suggesting they had not been delivered to local election boards and thus not counted. This led to a collective freak-out that hundreds of thousands of voters had been disenfranchised.
According to multiple sources familiar with the matter, however, those ballots were not scanned because letter carriers and postal workers were following a directive from the national headquarters to avoid taking election mail through processing centers. Instead, the ballots were sorted at local post offices, where they were post-marked and delivered directly to local clerks, all to speed up the process, not slow or thwart it.
This was an idea that came from the major postal unions, who wanted to prevent ballot delivery delays, as the Washington Monthly first reported last month. So, while the barcode data could not trace a number of ballots because they were not scanned at processing warehouses, that does not mean they were not delivered. In fact, it means those ballots were delivered quicker than they otherwise would have been.
2. Is Arizona invalidating ballots because voters filled them out with Sharpie pens given to them by poll workers?
No. Of course not. This is a lie spread by Republicans. such as Matt Schlapp, chair of the American Conservative Union “On #Election Day, [Maricopa County’s Elections Department] Recorder encouraged voters to use #Sharpie pens,” he tweeted. “Now it’s a problem? How convenient!” The rumor, referred to as SharpieGate, has gone viral.
Arizona officials emphatically deny any truth to this claim; and that votes recorded with Sharpies are not being thrown out. “Those ballots are being counted,” Arizona’s secretary of state, Katie Hobbs, said on local television.
3. Have there really been more ballots cast in Wisconsin than there are registered voters?
No. This rumor seems to have originated on Twitter. “How the hell are there more votes than voters in WI?” tweeted George Papadopoulos, a minor figure in the Russia investigation. The answer is simple: There isn’t.
Wisconsin is one of 21 states, as well as the District of Columbia, that allow for same-day registration. Even still, the Badger State recorded more than 3.2 million votes, its highest turnout since 2004. Still, according to the Wisconsin Elections Commission, it had more than 3.6 million active registered voters as of November 1.
4. Were there more than 40,000 rejected ballots in Georgia’s DeKalb County?
This falsehood has the potential to be combustible. Georgia’s count could decide the election.
On Wednesday, Gill Freeman, a former candidate for the Georgia State Senate, tweeted that “40,000 rejected vote by mail ballots in DeKalb County need to be cured by Friday or they will be tossed (mismatch signature, etc.), verify your ballot status.” Quickly, the tweet racked up more than 40,000 retweets, including from singer John Legend and actress Kerry Washington. The only problem: It’s not true. DeKalb County had only rejected 202 ballots that needed to be cured, meaning contacting voters and notifying them of a problem with their absentee ballot, giving them a chance to fix it. The tweet has since been deleted.
5. Are Democrats trying to steal the election?
Fox Business anchor Maria Bartiromo tweeted a Federalist article with the non-subtle headline “Yes, Democrats Are Trying to Steal the Election in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.” (Bartiromo has appeared to have since deleted her tweet, which was flagged by Twitter.) This is not the only story the Federalist has run in the last two days to raise doubt in the election process, effectively helping the Trump camp fuel its disinformation campaign.
This storyline is only true if you equate counting and stealing. There is nothing sinister about counting ballots after Election Day. In fact, it’s been the norm for decades.
It’s also worth noting that Trump and the Republicans in key swing states engineered it so that the counting of absentee ballots—which polling indicated would lean overwhelmingly Democratic—would take longer, all to ensure a delay that would provide Trump a window of opportunity to claim fraud and contest the election.
We warned about this in September, after GOP lawmakers blocked legislation in multiple states, including Pennsylvania, to start counting absentee ballots before Election Day, as other states with a history of mail voting do, such as Florida and Ohio.
6. Is anything Donald Trump saying or tweeting true?
As to be expected, the number one source of misinformation is Donald Trump. Trump held a press conference early Wednesday morning spewing a number of lies: that he won key states he has not; that he has won the election overall; that votes are being “found” rather than counted; that Pennsylvania elections officials are trying to make his lead disappear. We could go on. But the point is pretty clear: Americans shouldn’t believe what they hear from their president.


washingtonmonthly--2020-11-04--BIDEN CLOSER TO VICTORY AS VOTE COUNT NEARS END IN GEORGIA, PENNSYLVANIA

By Friday morning , Joe Biden inched closer to winning the presidency as Georgia , Pennsylvania , Nevada , plus Arizona moved towards counting their final votes and Donald Trump , reduced to lying about “ illegal ” votes , watched his totals diminish in each battleground .
The president ’ s leads in Georgia and Pennsylvania diminished with metronomic consistency all day on Thursday and into the wee hours of Friday as each new round of vote totals was released to the public .
Trump ’ s lead in Georgia all but evaporated as votes poured in from Atlanta @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Trump lead in Pennsylvania went from over 200,000 to under 200,000 as Philadelphia votes were tallied amidst protests from Trump supporters and news reports of a thwarted attack on a vote-counting facility by backers of the president .
Thursday ’ s good news for Biden came after he picked up Michigan and Wisconsin on Wednesday , putting him on a short-track to victory .
While some news organizations refrained from calling Arizona for the Democratic nominee , it seemed to be only a matter of time before they did .
Nevada and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Under North Carolina law , ballots that arrive as late as next week can still be counted , making a final total there hard to determine .
Recounts seemed likely in several states , including Wisconsin and Georgia , possibly delaying a declaration of victory by Biden into next week , if not later this month .
Even with recounts , the possibility of a Trump victory seems almost implausible , requiring him to win almost every outstanding contest if not reverse some such as Wisconsin .
So far , Trump ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the vote count has proved hapless even if his authoritarian fulminations grow more shrill .
His lawsuits have been largely swatted away by the courts .
On Thursday , he took to the White House Briefing Room to declare that he was already the winner of the election when “ legal votes ” were counted .
That is a lie .
He also offered what can only be called crackpot theories , including the accusation that the nation ’ s polling firms had conspired against him to depress his vote .
It was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at 2:00 AM on Wednesday when the president appeared in the East Room of the White House , a venue usually reserved for bestowing medals or press conferences with visiting heads of state .
There , he led an insomniac ’ s political rally and claimed a lead : “ Frankly , we did win this election.
” That was a brazen lie .
Trump ’ s determination to go to the Supreme Court ignored the justices ’ inability to issue a single ruling that would stop balloting nationwide .
( Each state @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Counting ballots past midnight is commonplace in American elections for all offices , including the presidency .
In 2000 , 2004 , and 2016 no winner had emerged by the stroke of midnight , and even when winners are projected earlier , counting and certification can take days or weeks .
In the Senate , Democrats who were heavily favored to take the chamber are despairing that they ’ ll very likely remain in the minority .
Democrats will need to pick up North Carolina to have any shot of taking the Senate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and incumbent Thom Tillis saw his lead widen against Democratic challenger , Cal Cunningham .
Democratic hopes also rest on two Georgia Senate races that have yet to be determined .
At least one is likely to be settled in a runoff later this month .
On the other , incumbent Sen. David Purdue , a Republican , may yet reach the 50-percent threshold to avoid a runoff .
The week had proved profoundly disappointing for Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer as he watched one Democratic candidate after another falter .
Once considered @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s Susan Collins kept her seat , easily beating Maine House Speaker Sara Gideon .
While Mark Kelly , the former astronaut , knocked off Republican Martha McSally to win the U.S. Senate seat in Arizona , other paths to Senate control disappeared for Senate Democrats .
Joni Ernst , the Iowa Republican , kept her Senate seat .
Democrats picked up a U.S. Senate seat in Colorado , where former Gov .
John Hickenlooper handily beat incumbent Cory Gardner .
But Democrats lost in South Carolina , where the lavishly funded @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and Lindsey Graham won a fourth term .
In Montana , Gov .
Steve Bullock , whom Democrats recruited to run , lost to Steve Daines , who won a second term .
Meanwhile , Sen. Gary Peters of Michigan , a one-term Democrat , managed to hang on against John James ’ s surprisingly strong challenge .
Republicans were on track to pick up at least six seats in the House , putting an ax to the promising Congressional careers of freshman Democrats elected in the 2018 blue wave .
In New @ @ @ @ @ @ @ profile Army veteran , lost his Staten Island-and-Brooklyn district .
In Florida , former Health and Human Services Secretary Donna Shalala lost her bid for a second term , another victim of the Democrats ’ surprisingly weak performance among Hispanics in South Florida .
Even if Biden prevails , his agenda could be on life support .
The Senate , likely controlled by Mitch McConnell , the GOP leader from Kentucky , puts dreams of liberal reform–an end to the filibuster , statehood for the District of Columbia , and new seats on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s progressive tax and spending plans seemed doomed .
Should Biden win , it ’ s hard to think of another president in the modern era who took office during a crisis with such little strength in Congress .
Even if Democrats can claw their way to a 50-50 tie in the Senate–making a Vice President Kamala Harris the tiebreaker–it would require lockstep unity in a Democratic party not exactly know for it .
The anxiety-producing presidential race shows that Americans remain deeply divided as they faced the starkest presidential race since Lyndon @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 1964 .
Biden heads the most progressive Democratic ticket since LBJ ’ s landslide election .
His party ’ s platform touts massive expenditures , like Green New Deal style-investments in alternative energy and a bold public option to bolster the Affordable Care Act , as well as cultural changes like the end of the Hyde Amendment—which prohibits federal funding for Medicaid ( Biden has supported the latter since 1979 ) .
The Democratic Party ’ s platform doesn ’ t fulfill all of the wants of its ascendant left-wing .
Still , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ them happy—for now .
By contrast , the GOP had no platform this year , reflecting the Republican Party ’ s subservience to the president .
The triangulation that Trump hinted at in 2016—echoing Democratic priorities like protecting Social Security , investing in roads and bridges—never materialized .
The Trump of 2020 is pushing for an end to the payroll tax , which would end Social Security .
Famously and laughably , “ Infrastructure Week ” proved to be a mirage .
Trump is a standard , donor-class Republican with an inhuman face @ @ @ @ @ @ @ defense alliances , and multilateral trade pacts were a patina on traditional Republican faith in the trinity of tax cuts , conservative judges , and deregulation .
For Trump , the underdog , his coalition was paved with states with large populations of white working-class voters , including the Great Lakes states .
His 2016 victories in Ohio , Pennsylvania , Wisconsin , and Michigan cut off Hillary Clinton ’ s seemingly inevitable path to victory .
His hold on Florida , Texas , North Carolina , and Georgia doomed her chances in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Thanks to his Pennsylvania roots—and doubtlessly owing much to his gender , perceived moderation , and maybe his age—Biden proved to be in a much stronger position than Clinton .
His party is more unified , sobered by the lessons of 2016 and even 2000 when the Green Party bid of Ralph Nader doomed Al Gore .
It ’ s likely Biden ’ s low-key , some say lackadaisical , campaign was brilliant .
One upside for Biden : it kept the focus on Trump , making the election a referendum on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s making fewer campaign stops may turn out to have been too cautious .
The mismanagement of Trump ’ s campaign is one for the ages .
Hundreds of millions of dollars ill-spent , a campaign manager with a Ferrari who was only dispatched when it was too late , an inability to master small donor online fundraising—all of it made this campaign the gang that couldn ’ t shoot straight .
In the final days of the race , Trump was forced to jet to California , a state where he stands @ @ @ @ @ @ @ old fashioned way—with a pricy fundraiser that ’ s far less efficient than merely collecting dollars online without any waiters or canapés .
Biden was simultaneously the most likely and least likely Democratic nominee this cycle .
His 50-year tenure in electoral politics made him well known , and his eight-years as Barack Obama ’ s wingman transformed him from a Senate lifer into presidential timber .
But his age—he turns 78 this month—was always a looming burden , and his long history in the U.S. Senate is both a bragging right and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ into the Senate in 1973 , just days after his wife and daughter were killed in a car accident , the chamber had deep roots in the past .
Three World War I veterans were still serving , as were multiple former segregationist Senators who chaired powerful committees , forcing him to work them and charm them alongside other young liberals .
Ted Kennedy , who came to the Senate in 1962 , ten years earlier , had the same work-with-segregationists history when he ran for president in 1980 .
Still , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ t hold it against him , perhaps because he was a Kennedy .
Biden got no such break this year .
When Kamala Harris whacked him on school busing to achieve racial desegregation , it smarted .
But Biden played the long game .
He didn ’ t jerk too far to the left during the primaries .
He didn ’ t embrace single-payer health care , even while he jettisoned pro-corporate stances on bankruptcy reform and antitrust that unsettled the many financial institutions that make Delaware home .
His long cultivation of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ninth largest Black population , he often noted—and his unswerving loyalty to a younger Black president made him ripe for the endorsement of James Clyburn in South Carolina .
The powerful House Democratic Whip used his Palmetto State machine and Black voters ’ ready enthusiasm to push Biden to a resounding victory over minority candidates like Cory Booker or the party ’ s left stalwarts , Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders .
The party gathered around Biden quickly ; endorsements from rivals such as Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar poured in .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ very short , snatched by the Black voters in the state that launched the Civil War .
Warren faltered quickly , coming in third in her home state .
Trump ’ s Republican party was unified from the start .
He never faced a serious primary challenge .
Those who put up a fight with the president like Republican Senators Bob Corker and Jeff Flake walked away rather than facing uphill battles in primaries dominated by MAGA devotees .
The president could have used his unified party to reset his unpopular presidency , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the constant Twitter invectives .
But he didn ’ t .
And that was before the pandemic .
Perhaps the gravest national crisis in 100 years or at least since World War II and the Depression , COVID-19 could have been Trump ’ s lifeline .
But a negligent response sent the death toll higher than it should ever have been .
He turned mask-wearing into a political statement instead of a prophylactic .
His blathering made him seem more idiotic than Churchillian .
His continued self-indulgence amidst death—complaining about not getting a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ places—made him seem , if not AWOL from the pandemic fight , then like he was cosseting the enemy .
Even his illness , which might have provided a moment to right his campaign , was only a fleeting photo op .
Still , the fact that he remains an underdog with a chance is testimony to his grip on rural America , traditional Republicans , and white-working-class men .
In Harris and Mike Pence , each man has found a running mate that matches their party perfectly .
The California senator represents @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Jamaican and Indian ancestry , Jewish husband , and Jewish stepchildren .
Hailing from the Bay Area , although now living in Brentwood , she ’ s pure West Coast blue .
If elected , she ’ ll be the first woman to occupy the vice-presidential mansion in Washington , D.C .
The first president or vice president since Warren Harding not to have had their own children .
Pence raised a Roman Catholic , and a Democrat in Indiana is a fundamentalist Christian and a rock-ribbed Republican .
What differences he had @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are gone along with his once lonely crusade for a shield law to protect journalists ’ confidential sources .
( Pence was a radio host with some empathy for the news before it was fake . )
Trump and Biden are the oldest nominees to run .
Their combined ages are 151 .
John Kennedy and Richard Nixon ’ s combined ages were 90 .
If Biden wins , he ’ ll be the second Catholic president , elected 60 years after JFK .
He will be the first widower president since Woodrow @ @ @ @ @ @ @ he ’ ll join Barack Obama and George W. Bush in a special club : Every president in this century will have won two-terms .
It now seems possible we ’ ll never have a president born in the 1950s , a decade big on babies but not babies who grew up to be president .
This election ’ s eventual victor will be a product of the 1940s , a decade every bit as turbulent as ours .

As the final votes were being tallied in battleground states, Joe Biden inched closer to winning the presidency on Friday, pulling ahead in Nevada and Pennsylvania. Donald Trump, reduced to lying about “illegal” votes, watched his chances of reelection evaporate.
The president’s leads in Georgia and Pennsylvania diminished with metronomic regularity on Thursday and into, and Friday as each new round of vote totals was released to the public. Late arriving votes from urban and suburban areas all but buried Trump’s chances in the two states. Philadelphia votes, which ran around 80-20 for Biden, were tallied amidst protests from Trump supporters and news reports of a thwarted attack on a vote-counting facility by the president’s backers. Atlanta and its suburbs seemed to put the kibosh on Trump’s chances in a state that’s been solidly red in presidential contests since 1992. Georgia’s secretary of state announced that there would be a recount after the final tally.
Recounts seemed certain in other states, too, possibly delaying a declaration of Biden’s victory into next week. Much depends on if and when news organizations decide to call one or more of the remaining states. Even with recounts, the possibility of a Trump victory seems almost implausible, requiring the president to win almost every outstanding contest.
So far, Trump’s efforts to change the vote count have proved hapless even if his authoritarian fulminations grow more shrill. His lawsuits have been largely swatted away by the courts. On Thursday, he took to the White House Briefing Room to declare that he was already the winner of the election when “legal votes” were counted. That is a lie. He also offered what can only be called crackpot theories, including the accusation that the nation’s polling firms had conspired against him to depress his vote. Late-night comics lampooned the president’s conspiratorial rantings, noting that it would be quite an accomplishment, indeed, for Democrats to plan a Biden victory in multiple states while losing Democratic house seats and floundering in the Senate.
Trump’s remarks, timed for the broadcast evening news but which most networks cut away from before he was finished, were a continuation of a tirade that began at 2:00 AM on Wednesday when the president appeared in the East Room of the White House, a venue usually reserved for bestowing medals or press conferences with visiting heads of state. There, he led an insomniac’s political rally and claimed an imaginary lead: “Frankly, we did win this election.” That was a brazen lie.
Trump’s determination to go to the Supreme Court, which he repeated on Thursday, ignored the justices’ inability to issue a single ruling that would stop balloting nationwide. (Each state has its own election law.) Counting ballots past midnight is commonplace in American elections for all offices, including the presidency. In 2000, 2004, and 2016 no winner had emerged by the stroke of midnight, and even when winners are projected earlier, counting and certification can take days or weeks.
Senate Woes
In the Senate, Democrats who were heavily favored to take the chamber are despairing that they’ll very likely remain in the minority. Democrats will need to pick up North Carolina to have any shot of taking the Senate, but that seemed increasingly unlikely, and incumbent Thom Tillis saw his lead widen against Democratic challenger, Cal Cunningham. Democratic hopes also rest on two Georgia Senate races that have yet to be determined. At least one is likely to be settled in a runoff later this month. On the other, incumbent Sen. David Purdue, a Republican, may yet reach the 50-percent threshold to avoid a runoff.
The week had proved profoundly disappointing for Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer as he watched one Democratic candidate after another falter. Once considered among the most vulnerable Republicans, Maine’s Susan Collins kept her seat, easily beating Maine House Speaker Sara Gideon. While Mark Kelly, the former astronaut, knocked off Republican Martha McSally to win the U.S. Senate seat in Arizona, other paths to Senate control disappeared for Senate Democrats. Joni Ernst, the Iowa Republican, kept her Senate seat. Democrats picked up a U.S. Senate seat in Colorado, where former Gov. John Hickenlooper handily beat incumbent Cory Gardner. But Democrats lost in South Carolina, where the lavishly funded bid of Jaime Harrison was dashed, and Lindsey Graham won a fourth term. In Montana, Gov. Steve Bullock, whom Democrats recruited to run, lost to Steve Daines, who won a second term. Meanwhile, Sen. Gary Peters of Michigan, a one-term Democrat, managed to hang on against John James’s surprisingly strong challenge.
Republicans were on track to pick up at least six seats in the House, putting an ax to the promising Congressional careers of freshman Democrats elected in the 2018 blue wave. In New York, Max Rose, a high profile Army veteran, lost his Staten Island-and-Brooklyn district. In Florida, former Health and Human Services Secretary Donna Shalala lost her bid for a second term, another victim of the Democrats’ surprisingly weak performance among Hispanics in South Florida.
Even if Biden prevails, his agenda could be on life support. The Senate, likely controlled by Mitch McConnell, the GOP leader from Kentucky, puts dreams of liberal reform–an end to the filibuster, statehood for the District of Columbia, and new seats on the Supreme Court–in peril. Biden’s progressive tax and spending plans seemed doomed. Should Biden win, it’s hard to think of another president in the modern era who took office during a crisis with such little strength in Congress. Even if Democrats can claw their way to a 50-50 tie in the Senate–making a Vice President Kamala Harris the tiebreaker–it would require lockstep unity in a Democratic party not exactly know for it.
Not Since LBJ
The anxiety-producing presidential race shows that Americans remain deeply divided as they faced the starkest presidential race since Lyndon Johnson squared off against Barry Goldwater in 1964. Biden heads the most progressive Democratic ticket since LBJ’s landslide election. His party’s platform touts massive expenditures, like Green New Deal style-investments in alternative energy and a bold public option to bolster the Affordable Care Act, as well as cultural changes like the end of the Hyde Amendment—which prohibits federal funding for Medicaid (Biden has supported the latter since 1979). The Democratic Party’s platform doesn’t fulfill all of the wants of its ascendant left-wing. Still, there’s enough there to keep them happy—for now.
By contrast, the GOP had no platform this year, reflecting the Republican Party’s subservience to the president. The triangulation that Trump hinted at in 2016—echoing Democratic priorities like protecting Social Security, investing in roads and bridges—never materialized. The Trump of 2020 is pushing for an end to the payroll tax, which would end Social Security. Famously and laughably, “Infrastructure Week” proved to be a mirage. Trump is a standard, donor-class Republican with an inhuman face. His anti-immigrant fervor, disdain for defense alliances, and multilateral trade pacts were a patina on traditional Republican faith in the trinity of tax cuts, conservative judges, and deregulation.
For Trump, the underdog, his coalition was paved with states with large populations of white working-class voters, including the Great Lakes states. His 2016 victories in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan cut off Hillary Clinton’s seemingly inevitable path to victory. His hold on Florida, Texas, North Carolina, and Georgia doomed her chances in states with growing Hispanic and suburban populations.
Thanks to his Pennsylvania roots—and doubtlessly owing much to his gender, perceived moderation, and maybe his age—Biden proved to be in a much stronger position than Clinton. His party is more unified, sobered by the lessons of 2016 and even 2000 when the Green Party bid of Ralph Nader doomed Al Gore.
It’s likely Biden’s low-key, some say lackadaisical, campaign was brilliant. One upside for Biden: it kept the focus on Trump, making the election a referendum on the president. Conversely, Biden’s making fewer campaign stops may turn out to have been too cautious.
The Ferrari Campaign
The mismanagement of Trump’s campaign is one for the ages. Hundreds of millions of dollars ill-spent, a campaign manager with a Ferrari who was only dispatched when it was too late, an inability to master small donor online fundraising—all of it made this campaign the gang that couldn’t shoot straight. In the final days of the race, Trump was forced to jet to California, a state where he stands no chance, to hustle money the old fashioned way—with a pricy fundraiser that’s far less efficient than merely collecting dollars online without any waiters or canapés.
Biden was simultaneously the most likely and least likely Democratic nominee this cycle. His 50-year tenure in electoral politics made him well known, and his eight-years as Barack Obama’s wingman transformed him from a Senate lifer into presidential timber.
But his age—he turns 78 this month—was always a looming burden, and his long history in the U.S. Senate is both a bragging right and an albatross. When Biden was sworn into the Senate in 1973, just days after his wife and daughter were killed in a car accident, the chamber had deep roots in the past. Three World War I veterans were still serving, as were multiple former segregationist Senators who chaired powerful committees, forcing him to work them and charm them alongside other young liberals. Ted Kennedy, who came to the Senate in 1962, ten years earlier, had the same work-with-segregationists history when he ran for president in 1980. Still, the Democratic Party of that year didn’t hold it against him, perhaps because he was a Kennedy. Biden got no such break this year. When Kamala Harris whacked him on school busing to achieve racial desegregation, it smarted.
But Biden played the long game. He didn’t jerk too far to the left during the primaries. He didn’t embrace single-payer health care, even while he jettisoned pro-corporate stances on bankruptcy reform and antitrust that unsettled the many financial institutions that make Delaware home. His long cultivation of Black voters—Delaware is the state with the ninth largest Black population, he often noted—and his unswerving loyalty to a younger Black president made him ripe for the endorsement of James Clyburn in South Carolina. The powerful House Democratic Whip used his Palmetto State machine and Black voters’ ready enthusiasm to push Biden to a resounding victory over minority candidates like Cory Booker or the party’s left stalwarts, Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders. The party gathered around Biden quickly; endorsements from rivals such as Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar poured in. The moment of Sanders’s inevitability proved very short, snatched by the Black voters in the state that launched the Civil War. Warren faltered quickly, coming in third in her home state.
Trump’s Republican party was unified from the start. He never faced a serious primary challenge. Those who put up a fight with the president like Republican Senators Bob Corker and Jeff Flake walked away rather than facing uphill battles in primaries dominated by MAGA devotees. The president could have used his unified party to reset his unpopular presidency, returning to infrastructure or easing back on the constant Twitter invectives. But he didn’t.
Trump Blows His Chance For a Reset
And that was before the pandemic. Perhaps the gravest national crisis in 100 years or at least since World War II and the Depression, COVID-19 could have been Trump’s lifeline. But a negligent response sent the death toll higher than it should ever have been. He turned mask-wearing into a political statement instead of a prophylactic. His blathering made him seem more idiotic than Churchillian. His continued self-indulgence amidst death—complaining about not getting a fair shake from Fox News of all places—made him seem, if not AWOL from the pandemic fight, then like he was cosseting the enemy. Even his illness, which might have provided a moment to right his campaign, was only a fleeting photo op. Still, the fact that he remains an underdog with a chance is testimony to his grip on rural America, traditional Republicans, and white-working-class men.
In Harris and Mike Pence, each man has found a running mate that matches their party perfectly. The California senator represents the Democrats’ diversity, with her Jamaican and Indian ancestry, Jewish husband, and Jewish stepchildren. Hailing from the Bay Area, although now living in Brentwood, she’s pure West Coast blue. If elected, she’ll be the first woman to occupy the vice-presidential mansion in Washington, D.C. The first president or vice president since Warren Harding not to have had their own children. Pence raised a Roman Catholic, and a Democrat in Indiana is a fundamentalist Christian and a rock-ribbed Republican. What differences he had with Trump on immigration or foreign policy are gone along with his once lonely crusade for a shield law to protect journalists’ confidential sources. (Pence was a radio host with some empathy for the news before it was fake.)
Trump and Biden are the oldest nominees to run. Their combined ages are 151. John Kennedy and Richard Nixon’s combined ages were 90. If Biden wins, he’ll be the second Catholic president, elected 60 years after JFK. He will be the first widower president since Woodrow Wilson. If Trump holds on, he’ll join Barack Obama and George W. Bush in a special club: Every president in this century will have won two-terms. It now seems possible we’ll never have a president born in the 1950s, a decade big on babies but not babies who grew up to be president. This election’s eventual victor will be a product of the 1940s, a decade every bit as turbulent as ours.


washingtonmonthly--2020-11-06--The Suburbs Drove Biden to Victory in Pennsylvania

Four years ago , Hillary Clinton was favored to win Pennsylvania , but she famously lost the state by just over 44,000 votes .
In 2020 , Joe Biden won .
They are still counting votes from Pittsburgh to Philadelphia , and Biden ’ s margins will surely grow , but it appears that his victory will be similar in size to Trump ’ s 2016 squeaker and far less substantial than the 2018 reelection of Gov .
Tom Wolf , a Democrat .
Before Election Day , I identified 21 Pennsylvania counties that would help give an early indication @ @ @ @ @ @ @ were counted after Election Day ballots , and the Democrats ’ strong preference for them , it wasn ’ t possible to use my method for prognostication .
Still , enough results are in now that we can see how Biden prevailed .
In my pre-election model , I divided Pennsylvania into seven regions : the cities ( Pittsburgh and Philadelphia ) , the Philly suburbs , the Northeast ( including Biden ’ s childhood home , Scranton ) , the Top T ( along the central border with New York State ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ) , and two counties in the Northwest and Southwest .
Each of the 21 counties I chose saw at least a 10 percent decline in Hillary Clinton ’ s performance compared to Barack Obama ’ s numbers in 2012 .
Below , I ’ ll show you that the numbers in these counties were remarkably stable and regionally consistent .
Overall , Biden either did as well as Clinton or just a bit better .
[ For this analysis , all percentages are of the two-party vote ( i.e.
, it excludes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to compare different election cycles . ]
One of the most interesting facts is how Biden in 2020 fared better than Clinton in 2016 but fell behind Democratic Gov .
Wolf in 2018 .
( We ’ ll get to reasons for Wolf ’ s performance and what it may or may not say about Biden and Trump in a moment . )
In the Top T region , Trump had held Clinton under 30 percent in all four of my highlighted counties .
Two years later , when Wolf won reelection , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ however , only managed to crack 30 percent in Warren County .
The Trump loyalists that stayed home in 2018 came back out , but Biden did slightly better , possibly because there was no Green Party candidate on the ballot this time .
In the Central West , there was no change at all .
Like Clinton , Biden could not win even a third of the vote in any of the five highlighted counties , but he only lost ground in Elk County , and only by a single percentage point @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 44 percent in both Clinton County and Cambria County ( Johnstown ) , but Biden couldn ’ t hold those gains .
You ’ ll notice , too , that Biden ’ s slippage from Wolf ’ s 2018 results is a couple points worse here than in the Top T counties .
In the Northwestern and Southwestern counties where Clinton did 10 points worse than Obama ’ s 2012 performance , Gov .
Wolf not only wiped out those losses in 2018 but improved the numbers in three of the four , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ however , did about the same as Clinton .
Greene County still has not reported a lot of their Democratic-friendly mail ballots , so you can discount its percentages .
The first sign of Biden ’ s victory emerges in the Northeast .
Notice that Biden ’ s slippage from Wolf ’ s 2018 performance is only seven points in three of these counties .
Also significant , he improved on Clinton ’ s numbers by two or more percentage points in six of the eight highlighted counties .
There are still outstanding @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in Bucks County , so Biden ’ s numbers will get stronger here .
But we can already see that there ’ s not the same degree of decline from 2018 in this region .
These are also really big counties , so a two or three percentage point improvement on Clinton ’ s 2016 numbers adds up to a lot of extra votes .
Both Pittsburgh and Philadelphia have enough outstanding votes that we can ’ t very usefully make comparisons yet .
It ’ s notable , however , that Allegheny @ @ @ @ @ @ @ already a little better for the Democratic nominee than it was four years ago .
Perhaps Philly will eventually move into positive territory as well , but there ’ s no giant surge in either city , and the results are nowhere near what Wolf achieved in 2018 .
This is not a case of energized minority turnout making the difference .
The picture that emerges is fairly clear .
Biden did slightly better than Clinton in the Top T section of the state and perhaps slightly worse in the Southwest and Northwest @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is mostly significant because Trump needed to improve in his strongholds , and he failed .
Biden wanted to improve on Clinton ’ s numbers in the cities , but if he did so , it was only modestly , and he was carried to victory by the Northeast and the Philly suburbs .
My main observation about these less-than-final results is that there is a huge amount of swing in the state in the Republican areas when voting for governor , but very little when it comes to Trump .
Since Trump @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ballot again , this presents some opportunities for the Democrats .
Of course , the Republicans might find that the suburbs will swing their way a bit without Trump holding them down , but that didn ’ t happen in 2018 .
What ’ s not controversial is that Trump runs up huge numbers in rural areas .
But that doesn ’ t mean those voters are strong or loyal Republicans .
They didn ’ t come out to oppose Wolf .
These voters like Trump , but they won ’ t necessarily @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ( It ’ s true 2018 was an off-year election and a good one for Democrats , but the differences in turnout in heavily pro-Trump areas suggest that without the former reality show star atop the ticket , it ’ ll be harder to generate comparable enthusiasm for a different Republican in 2024 . )
It ’ s also notable that Clinton ’ s alleged unlikability with the “ deplorables ” wasn ’ t unique to her .
Biden didn ’ t move them much either .
His gains with Republicans came in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ professionals .
He ran stronger in the Northeast than Clinton , possibly aided by his familial roots there .
Trump clearly energized his most fervent supporters in a way that ’ s in keeping with what ’ s been seen around the country .
It suggests that he ’ ll have a receptive audience with these fervent supporters as a critic of any Biden administration , especially if he keeps a high public profile .
But Pennsylvania ’ s Republican Party has to plan for a future without Trump , and with their @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the damage Trump did to their brand in the suburbs , they have a very big problem .

Four years ago, Hillary Clinton was favored to win Pennsylvania, but she famously lost the state by just over 44,000 votes. In 2020, Joe Biden won. They are still counting votes from Pittsburgh to Philadelphia, and Biden’s margins will surely grow, but it appears that his victory will be similar in size to Trump’s 2016 squeaker and far less substantial than the 2018 reelection of Gov. Tom Wolf, a Democrat.
Before Election Day, I identified 21 Pennsylvania counties that would help give an early indication of the winner. Because mail ballots were counted after Election Day ballots, and the Democrats’ strong preference for them, it wasn’t possible to use my method for prognostication. Still, enough results are in now that we can see how Biden prevailed.
In my pre-election model, I divided Pennsylvania into seven regions: the cities (Pittsburgh and Philadelphia), the Philly suburbs, the Northeast (including Biden’s childhood home, Scranton), the Top T (along the central border with New York State), the Central West (including Johnstown), and two counties in the Northwest and Southwest. Each of the 21 counties I chose saw at least a 10 percent decline in Hillary Clinton’s performance compared to Barack Obama’s numbers in 2012.
Below, I’ll show you that the numbers in these counties were remarkably stable and regionally consistent. Overall, Biden either did as well as Clinton or just a bit better.
[For this analysis, all percentages are of the two-party vote (i.e., it excludes third parties) to make it easier to compare different election cycles.]
One of the most interesting facts is how Biden in 2020 fared better than Clinton in 2016 but fell behind Democratic Gov. Wolf in 2018. (We’ll get to reasons for Wolf’s performance and what it may or may not say about Biden and Trump in a moment.)
In the Top T region, Trump had held Clinton under 30 percent in all four of my highlighted counties. Two years later, when Wolf won reelection, he did significantly better. Biden, however, only managed to crack 30 percent in Warren County. The Trump loyalists that stayed home in 2018 came back out, but Biden did slightly better, possibly because there was no Green Party candidate on the ballot this time.
TOP T 2016 PCT 2016 vs. 2012 2018 PCT 2018 vs. 2016 NET GAIN/LOSS (2012-2018) 2020 PCT 2020 vs. 2016 2020 vs. 2018 BRADFORD 26 -11 34 +8 -3 27 +1 -8 MCKEON 26 -10 31 +6 -4 27 +3 -5 SUSQUEHANNA 28 -11 34 +6 -5 29 +1 -5 WARREN 29 -12 38 +9 -3 30 +1 -8
In the Central West, there was no change at all. Like Clinton, Biden could not win even a third of the vote in any of the five highlighted counties, but he only lost ground in Elk County, and only by a single percentage point. Interestingly, Gov. Wolf reached 44 percent in both Clinton County and Cambria County (Johnstown), but Biden couldn’t hold those gains. You’ll notice, too, that Biden’s slippage from Wolf’s 2018 results is a couple points worse here than in the Top T counties.
CENTRAL WEST 2016 PCT 2016 vs. 2012 2018 PCT 2018 vs. 2016 NET GAIN/LOSS (2012-2018) 2020 PCT 2020 vs. 2016 2020 vs. 2018 CAMBRIA 31 -10 44 +13 +3 31 EVEN -9 CAMERON 25 -10 35 +10 EVEN 26 EVEN -10 CLEARFIELD 25 -11 35 +10 -1 25 EVEN -10 CLINTON 32 -12 44 +11 -1 32 EVEN -12 ELK 28 -14 38 +10 -4 27 -1 -11
In the Northwestern and Southwestern counties where Clinton did 10 points worse than Obama’s 2012 performance, Gov. Wolf not only wiped out those losses in 2018 but improved the numbers in three of the four, making them all competitive. Biden, however, did about the same as Clinton. Greene County still has not reported a lot of their Democratic-friendly mail ballots, so you can discount its percentages.
NORTHWEST 2016 PCT 2016 vs. 2012 2018 PCT 2018 vs. 2016 NET GAIN/LOSS (2012-2018) 2020 PCT 2020 vs. 2016 2020 vs. 2018 LAWRENCE 36 -10 47 +12 +2 35 -1 -11 MERCER 37 -11 45 +8 -3 36 -1 -9
SOUTHWEST 2016 PCT 2016 vs. 2012 2018 PCT 2018 vs. 2016 NET GAIN/LOSS (2012-2018) 2020 PCT 2020 vs. 2016 2020 vs. 2018 FAYETTE 34 -12 49 +15 +3 33 -1 -16 GREENE 29 -12 46 +17 +5 24 -5 -22
The first sign of Biden’s victory emerges in the Northeast. Notice that Biden’s slippage from Wolf’s 2018 performance is only seven points in three of these counties. Also significant, he improved on Clinton’s numbers by two or more percentage points in six of the eight highlighted counties.
NORTHEAST 2016 PCT 2016 vs. 2012 2018 PCT 2018 vs. 2016 NET GAIN/LOSS (2012-2018) 2020 PCT 2020 vs. 2016 2020 vs. 2018 CARBON 32 -14 44 +11 -3 34 +2 -10 COLUMBIA 33 -10 44 +11 +1 31 +1 -10 LACKAWANNA 52 -12 65 +14 +2 54 +2 -11 LUZERNE 40 -12 52 +12 EVEN 43 +3 -10 NORTHUMBERLAND 28 -12 37 +9 -3 30 +3 -7 SCHUYLKILL 28 -16 44 +17 +1 30 +2 -7 SULLIVAN 25 -11 37 +12 +1 26 +1 -11 WYOMING 30 -13 39 +9 -4 32 +2 -7
There are still outstanding votes in the Philly suburbs, particularly in Bucks County, so Biden’s numbers will get stronger here. But we can already see that there’s not the same degree of decline from 2018 in this region. These are also really big counties, so a two or three percentage point improvement on Clinton’s 2016 numbers adds up to a lot of extra votes.
PHILLY SUBURBS 2016 PCT 2016 vs. 2012 2018 PCT 2018 vs. 2016 NET GAIN/LOSS (2012-2018) 2020 PCT 2020 vs. 2016 2020 vs. 2018 BUCKS 50 EVEN 59 +9 +9 52 +1 -7 CHESTER 55 +5 62 +7 +12 58 +3 -4 DELAWARE 62 +1 67 +6 +7 63 +2 -4 MONTGOMERY 61 +4 68 +7 +11 63 +2 -5
Both Pittsburgh and Philadelphia have enough outstanding votes that we can’t very usefully make comparisons yet. It’s notable, however, that Allegheny County, which includes Pittsburgh, is already a little better for the Democratic nominee than it was four years ago. Perhaps Philly will eventually move into positive territory as well, but there’s no giant surge in either city, and the results are nowhere near what Wolf achieved in 2018. This is not a case of energized minority turnout making the difference.
CITY COUNTY 2016 PCT 2016 vs. 2012 2018 PCT 2018 vs. 2016 NET GAIN/LOSS (2012-2018) 2020 PCT 2020 vs. 2016 2020 vs. 2018 ALLEGHENY 59 EVEN 68 +10 +10 60 +1 -9 PHILADELPHIA 84 -2 88 +4 +2 82 -3 -7
The picture that emerges is fairly clear. Biden did slightly better than Clinton in the Top T section of the state and perhaps slightly worse in the Southwest and Northwest. This is basically a wash that is mostly significant because Trump needed to improve in his strongholds, and he failed. Biden wanted to improve on Clinton’s numbers in the cities, but if he did so, it was only modestly, and he was carried to victory by the Northeast and the Philly suburbs.
My main observation about these less-than-final results is that there is a huge amount of swing in the state in the Republican areas when voting for governor, but very little when it comes to Trump.
Since Trump will most likely never be on the ballot again, this presents some opportunities for the Democrats. Of course, the Republicans might find that the suburbs will swing their way a bit without Trump holding them down, but that didn’t happen in 2018.
What’s not controversial is that Trump runs up huge numbers in rural areas. But that doesn’t mean those voters are strong or loyal Republicans. They didn’t come out to oppose Wolf. These voters like Trump, but they won’t necessarily turn out for a different Republican. (It’s true 2018 was an off-year election and a good one for Democrats, but the differences in turnout in heavily pro-Trump areas suggest that without the former reality show star atop the ticket, it’ll be harder to generate comparable enthusiasm for a different Republican in 2024.) It’s also notable that Clinton’s alleged unlikability with the “deplorables” wasn’t unique to her. Biden didn’t move them much either. His gains with Republicans came in affluent counties with lots of highly educated professionals. He ran stronger in the Northeast than Clinton, possibly aided by his familial roots there.
Trump clearly energized his most fervent supporters in a way that’s in keeping with what’s been seen around the country. It suggests that he’ll have a receptive audience with these fervent supporters as a critic of any Biden administration, especially if he keeps a high public profile. But Pennsylvania’s Republican Party has to plan for a future without Trump, and with their reliance on him for rural strength and the damage Trump did to their brand in the suburbs, they have a very big problem.


washingtonmonthly--2020-11-06--In Minnesota, Biden Won By Beating Hillary Clinton’s Numbers Across the State

For four years , Donald Trump has been obsessed with winning Minnesota in 2020—visiting the state five times .
Clinton beat him by only 1.5 percent in 2016 , making it one of the closest races that Trump lost that year .
To bolster the president ’ s fixation , right-wing media has claimed that the state was on the cusp of turning red .
But on Tuesday night , Minnesota was the first state in the Midwest to be called for Biden .
It wasn ’ t close .
The former vice president won by over seven points .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ what ’ s going on elsewhere in key upper Midwest states–including his narrower victories in Wisconsin , Michigan , and ( if present trends continue ) , Pennsylvania .
Trump actually got more votes in Minnesota than he did in 2016 .
So the first thing to note about Biden ’ s win is that turnout was key .
While Trump added 200,000 votes to his total , Biden added 350,000 to Clinton ’ s 2016 total .
On Wednesday , Minnesota Secretary of State Steve Simon announced that turnout had already reached @ @ @ @ @ @ @ percent over an already impressive 75 percent 2016 .
Where did Biden garner those additional 350,000 votes ?
He won the nine counties Clinton took in 2016 , improving on her record by five to nine percent in all of them .
That includes Hennepin and Ramsey ( two metro urban counties ) , Dakota and Washington ( two major suburban metro counties ) , four counties along the shore of Lake Superior in the northeastern part of the state ( Carlton , St. Louis , Lake , and Cook ) , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ might remember that Trump traveled to Olmstead County ( home of Mayo Clinic ) on the Friday before the election .
Biden won there with 54 percent of the vote , while Clinton squeaked out a win with 45 percent .
What is perhaps even more impressive , Biden actually flipped four rural Minnesota counties from red to blue : Clay , Nicollet , Blue Earth , and Winona .
He accomplished that by improving on Clinton ’ s record in each of them by five to eight points .
Finally , even @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and 2020 , Biden outperformed Clinton ’ s totals .
The day before we learned that the president had contracted COVID-19 , he visited Bemidji , which is part of Beltrami County in the northwestern part of the state .
Trump won there , but Biden kept it close by getting 47 percent of the vote , an improvement of seven over Clinton ’ s 40 percent .
Contrary to what we assumed going into this election , the story in Minnesota is not about an ever-escalating battle between rural and urban America @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that all across the state , in urban , rural , and suburban counties , Trump hung on to his base , while Biden significantly outperformed Clinton ’ s record in 2016 .
What happened in Minnesota is similar to what we see in Wisconsin and Michigan , although the results were slightly less dramatic .
While Trump secured his base , Biden benefited from increased turnout .
The former vice president flipped two counties in Wisconsin from red to blue : Door , a popular vacation destination that juts out into Lake @ @ @ @ @ @ @ community northwest of Madison .
Overall , Biden outperformed Clinton ’ s numbers in many Wisconsin counties by four to five percent .
That was not only true in urban Milwaukee County but also more rural counties like Eau Claire and Oneida .
Altogether , it was enough for Biden to take Wisconsin by 0.6 points—a 1.3 percent shift from Trump ’ s 0.7 percent victory in 2016 .
In Michigan , Biden flipped three counties from red to blue : Saginaw , Kent , and Leelanau .
In 2016 , Clinton got @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , which includes the city of Grand Rapids .
Biden won it with 52 percent .
Clinton won Wayne County ( Detroit ) with 66 percent of the vote .
Biden upped that to 68 .
In suburban Oakland County , Biden bested Clinton ’ s percentage by five points .
On the other hand , Trump won Eaton , a rural county located just east of Lansing , in both the 2016 and 2020 elections .
But Biden improved on Clinton ’ s margin there by 4.5 percent .
The pattern in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as my colleague Martin Longman reports , Biden didn ’ t do appreciably better in most rural counties than Hillary Clinton did in 2016 .
Instead , the lead he ’ s building is based on bigger percentage wins in the Philadelphia suburbs and the former heavy-industrialized counties in the state ’ s Northeast , including Lackawanna , where his hometown of Scranton is located .
But if Biden ’ s path in the Keystone State is not the same as in Minnesota , the destination looks to be .

For four years, Donald Trump has been obsessed with winning Minnesota in 2020—visiting the state five times. Clinton beat him by only 1.5 percent in 2016, making it one of the closest races that Trump lost that year. To bolster the president’s fixation, right-wing media has claimed that the state was on the cusp of turning red.
But on Tuesday night, Minnesota was the first state in the Midwest to be called for Biden. It wasn’t close. The former vice president won by over seven points. What he achieved in Minnesota helps explain what’s going on elsewhere in key upper Midwest states–including his narrower victories in Wisconsin, Michigan, and (if present trends continue), Pennsylvania.
Trump actually got more votes in Minnesota than he did in 2016. So the first thing to note about Biden’s win is that turnout was key. While Trump added 200,000 votes to his total, Biden added 350,000 to Clinton’s 2016 total. On Wednesday, Minnesota Secretary of State Steve Simon announced that turnout had already reached 78.1 percent, an increase of three percent over an already impressive 75 percent 2016.
Where did Biden garner those additional 350,000 votes? He won the nine counties Clinton took in 2016, improving on her record by five to nine percent in all of them. That includes Hennepin and Ramsey (two metro urban counties), Dakota and Washington (two major suburban metro counties), four counties along the shore of Lake Superior in the northeastern part of the state (Carlton, St. Louis, Lake, and Cook), and Olmsted County (Rochester). You might remember that Trump traveled to Olmstead County (home of Mayo Clinic) on the Friday before the election. Biden won there with 54 percent of the vote, while Clinton squeaked out a win with 45 percent.
What is perhaps even more impressive, Biden actually flipped four rural Minnesota counties from red to blue: Clay, Nicollet, Blue Earth, and Winona. He accomplished that by improving on Clinton’s record in each of them by five to eight points.
Finally, even in counties that Trump won in 2016 and 2020, Biden outperformed Clinton’s totals. The day before we learned that the president had contracted COVID-19, he visited Bemidji, which is part of Beltrami County in the northwestern part of the state. Trump won there, but Biden kept it close by getting 47 percent of the vote, an improvement of seven over Clinton’s 40 percent.
Contrary to what we assumed going into this election, the story in Minnesota is not about an ever-escalating battle between rural and urban America. Instead, what we see is that all across the state, in urban, rural, and suburban counties, Trump hung on to his base, while Biden significantly outperformed Clinton’s record in 2016.
What happened in Minnesota is similar to what we see in Wisconsin and Michigan, although the results were slightly less dramatic. While Trump secured his base, Biden benefited from increased turnout.
The former vice president flipped two counties in Wisconsin from red to blue: Door, a popular vacation destination that juts out into Lake Michigan, and Sauk, a suburban community northwest of Madison.
Overall, Biden outperformed Clinton’s numbers in many Wisconsin counties by four to five percent. That was not only true in urban Milwaukee County but also more rural counties like Eau Claire and Oneida. Altogether, it was enough for Biden to take Wisconsin by 0.6 points—a 1.3 percent shift from Trump’s 0.7 percent victory in 2016.
In Michigan, Biden flipped three counties from red to blue: Saginaw, Kent, and Leelanau. In 2016, Clinton got 45 percent of the vote in Kent, which includes the city of Grand Rapids. Biden won it with 52 percent. Clinton won Wayne County (Detroit) with 66 percent of the vote. Biden upped that to 68. In suburban Oakland County, Biden bested Clinton’s percentage by five points. On the other hand, Trump won Eaton, a rural county located just east of Lansing, in both the 2016 and 2020 elections. But Biden improved on Clinton’s margin there by 4.5 percent.
The pattern in Pennsylvania looks somewhat different. There, as my colleague Martin Longman reports, Biden didn’t do appreciably better in most rural counties than Hillary Clinton did in 2016. Instead, the lead he’s building is based on bigger percentage wins in the Philadelphia suburbs and the former heavy-industrialized counties in the state’s Northeast, including Lackawanna, where his hometown of Scranton is located. But if Biden’s path in the Keystone State is not the same as in Minnesota, the destination looks to be.


washingtonmonthly--2020-11-04--Why Trump’s Efforts to Stop the Vote Count Have Failed

As the final votes were being tallied in battleground states , Joe Biden inched closer to winning the presidency on Friday , pulling ahead in Nevada and Pennsylvania .
Donald Trump , reduced to lying about “ illegal ” votes , watched his chances of reelection evaporate .
The president ’ s leads in Georgia and Pennsylvania diminished with metronomic regularity on Thursday and into , and Friday as each new round of vote totals was released to the public .
Late arriving votes from urban and suburban areas all but buried Trump ’ s chances in the two states @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 80-20 for Biden , were tallied amidst protests from Trump supporters and news reports of a thwarted attack on a vote-counting facility by the president ’ s backers .
Atlanta and its suburbs seemed to put the kibosh on Trump ’ s chances in a state that ’ s been solidly red in presidential contests since 1992 .
Georgia ’ s secretary of state announced that there would be a recount after the final tally .
Recounts seemed certain in other states , too , possibly delaying a declaration of Biden ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on if and when news organizations decide to call one or more of the remaining states .
Even with recounts , the possibility of a Trump victory seems almost implausible , requiring the president to win almost every outstanding contest .
So far , Trump ’ s efforts to change the vote count have proved hapless even if his authoritarian fulminations grow more shrill .
His lawsuits have been largely swatted away by the courts .
On Thursday , he took to the White House Briefing Room to declare that he was already @ @ @ @ @ @ @ legal votes ” were counted .
That is a lie .
He also offered what can only be called crackpot theories , including the accusation that the nation ’ s polling firms had conspired against him to depress his vote .
Late-night comics lampooned the president ’ s conspiratorial rantings , noting that it would be quite an accomplishment , indeed , for Democrats to plan a Biden victory in multiple states while losing Democratic house seats and floundering in the Senate .
Trump ’ s remarks , timed for the broadcast evening @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from before he was finished , were a continuation of a tirade that began at 2:00 AM on Wednesday when the president appeared in the East Room of the White House , a venue usually reserved for bestowing medals or press conferences with visiting heads of state .
There , he led an insomniac ’ s political rally and claimed an imaginary lead : “ Frankly , we did win this election.
” That was a brazen lie .
Trump ’ s determination to go to the Supreme Court , which he repeated @ @ @ @ @ @ @ inability to issue a single ruling that would stop balloting nationwide .
( Each state has its own election law . )
Counting ballots past midnight is commonplace in American elections for all offices , including the presidency .
In 2000 , 2004 , and 2016 no winner had emerged by the stroke of midnight , and even when winners are projected earlier , counting and certification can take days or weeks .
In the Senate , Democrats who were heavily favored to take the chamber are despairing that they ’ ll very @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will need to pick up North Carolina to have any shot of taking the Senate , but that seemed increasingly unlikely , and incumbent Thom Tillis saw his lead widen against Democratic challenger , Cal Cunningham .
Democratic hopes also rest on two Georgia Senate races that have yet to be determined .
At least one is likely to be settled in a runoff later this month .
On the other , incumbent Sen. David Purdue , a Republican , may yet reach the 50-percent threshold to avoid a runoff .
The week @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Leader Chuck Schumer as he watched one Democratic candidate after another falter .
Once considered among the most vulnerable Republicans , Maine ’ s Susan Collins kept her seat , easily beating Maine House Speaker Sara Gideon .
While Mark Kelly , the former astronaut , knocked off Republican Martha McSally to win the U.S. Senate seat in Arizona , other paths to Senate control disappeared for Senate Democrats .
Joni Ernst , the Iowa Republican , kept her Senate seat .
Democrats picked up a U.S. Senate seat in Colorado , where @ @ @ @ @ @ @ incumbent Cory Gardner .
But Democrats lost in South Carolina , where the lavishly funded bid of Jaime Harrison was dashed , and Lindsey Graham won a fourth term .
In Montana , Gov .
Steve Bullock , whom Democrats recruited to run , lost to Steve Daines , who won a second term .
Meanwhile , Sen. Gary Peters of Michigan , a one-term Democrat , managed to hang on against John James ’ s surprisingly strong challenge .
Republicans were on track to pick up at least six seats in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ promising Congressional careers of freshman Democrats elected in the 2018 blue wave .
In New York , Max Rose , a high profile Army veteran , lost his Staten Island-and-Brooklyn district .
In Florida , former Health and Human Services Secretary Donna Shalala lost her bid for a second term , another victim of the Democrats ’ surprisingly weak performance among Hispanics in South Florida .
Even if Biden prevails , his agenda could be on life support .
The Senate , likely controlled by Mitch McConnell , the GOP leader from Kentucky @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to the filibuster , statehood for the District of Columbia , and new seats on the Supreme Court–in peril .
Biden ’ s progressive tax and spending plans seemed doomed .
Should Biden win , it ’ s hard to think of another president in the modern era who took office during a crisis with such little strength in Congress .
Even if Democrats can claw their way to a 50-50 tie in the Senate–making a Vice President Kamala Harris the tiebreaker–it would require lockstep unity in a Democratic party not exactly know @ @ @ @ @ @ @ shows that Americans remain deeply divided as they faced the starkest presidential race since Lyndon Johnson squared off against Barry Goldwater in 1964 .
Biden heads the most progressive Democratic ticket since LBJ ’ s landslide election .
His party ’ s platform touts massive expenditures , like Green New Deal style-investments in alternative energy and a bold public option to bolster the Affordable Care Act , as well as cultural changes like the end of the Hyde Amendment—which prohibits federal funding for Medicaid ( Biden has supported the latter since 1979 ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ doesn ’ t fulfill all of the wants of its ascendant left-wing .
Still , there ’ s enough there to keep them happy—for now .
By contrast , the GOP had no platform this year , reflecting the Republican Party ’ s subservience to the president .
The triangulation that Trump hinted at in 2016—echoing Democratic priorities like protecting Social Security , investing in roads and bridges—never materialized .
The Trump of 2020 is pushing for an end to the payroll tax , which would end Social Security .
Famously and laughably @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be a mirage .
Trump is a standard , donor-class Republican with an inhuman face .
His anti-immigrant fervor , disdain for defense alliances , and multilateral trade pacts were a patina on traditional Republican faith in the trinity of tax cuts , conservative judges , and deregulation .
For Trump , the underdog , his coalition was paved with states with large populations of white working-class voters , including the Great Lakes states .
His 2016 victories in Ohio , Pennsylvania , Wisconsin , and Michigan cut off Hillary Clinton ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hold on Florida , Texas , North Carolina , and Georgia doomed her chances in states with growing Hispanic and suburban populations .
Thanks to his Pennsylvania roots—and doubtlessly owing much to his gender , perceived moderation , and maybe his age—Biden proved to be in a much stronger position than Clinton .
His party is more unified , sobered by the lessons of 2016 and even 2000 when the Green Party bid of Ralph Nader doomed Al Gore .
It ’ s likely Biden ’ s low-key , some say lackadaisical , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Biden : it kept the focus on Trump , making the election a referendum on the president .
Conversely , Biden ’ s making fewer campaign stops may turn out to have been too cautious .
The mismanagement of Trump ’ s campaign is one for the ages .
Hundreds of millions of dollars ill-spent , a campaign manager with a Ferrari who was only dispatched when it was too late , an inability to master small donor online fundraising—all of it made this campaign the gang that couldn ’ t shoot straight @ @ @ @ @ @ @ race , Trump was forced to jet to California , a state where he stands no chance , to hustle money the old fashioned way—with a pricy fundraiser that ’ s far less efficient than merely collecting dollars online without any waiters or canapés .
Biden was simultaneously the most likely and least likely Democratic nominee this cycle .
His 50-year tenure in electoral politics made him well known , and his eight-years as Barack Obama ’ s wingman transformed him from a Senate lifer into presidential timber .
But his age—he turns @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and his long history in the U.S. Senate is both a bragging right and an albatross .
When Biden was sworn into the Senate in 1973 , just days after his wife and daughter were killed in a car accident , the chamber had deep roots in the past .
Three World War I veterans were still serving , as were multiple former segregationist Senators who chaired powerful committees , forcing him to work them and charm them alongside other young liberals .
Ted Kennedy , who came to the Senate in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the same work-with-segregationists history when he ran for president in 1980 .
Still , the Democratic Party of that year didn ’ t hold it against him , perhaps because he was a Kennedy .
Biden got no such break this year .
When Kamala Harris whacked him on school busing to achieve racial desegregation , it smarted .
But Biden played the long game .
He didn ’ t jerk too far to the left during the primaries .
He didn ’ t embrace single-payer health care , even while he jettisoned @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that unsettled the many financial institutions that make Delaware home .
His long cultivation of Black voters—Delaware is the state with the ninth largest Black population , he often noted—and his unswerving loyalty to a younger Black president made him ripe for the endorsement of James Clyburn in South Carolina .
The powerful House Democratic Whip used his Palmetto State machine and Black voters ’ ready enthusiasm to push Biden to a resounding victory over minority candidates like Cory Booker or the party ’ s left stalwarts , Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ; endorsements from rivals such as Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar poured in .
The moment of Sanders ’ s inevitability proved very short , snatched by the Black voters in the state that launched the Civil War .
Warren faltered quickly , coming in third in her home state .
Trump ’ s Republican party was unified from the start .
He never faced a serious primary challenge .
Those who put up a fight with the president like Republican Senators Bob Corker and Jeff Flake walked away rather than facing uphill @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The president could have used his unified party to reset his unpopular presidency , returning to infrastructure or easing back on the constant Twitter invectives .
But he didn ’ t .
And that was before the pandemic .
Perhaps the gravest national crisis in 100 years or at least since World War II and the Depression , COVID-19 could have been Trump ’ s lifeline .
But a negligent response sent the death toll higher than it should ever have been .
He turned mask-wearing into a political statement instead of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ seem more idiotic than Churchillian .
His continued self-indulgence amidst death—complaining about not getting a fair shake from Fox News of all places—made him seem , if not AWOL from the pandemic fight , then like he was cosseting the enemy .
Even his illness , which might have provided a moment to right his campaign , was only a fleeting photo op .
Still , the fact that he remains an underdog with a chance is testimony to his grip on rural America , traditional Republicans , and white-working-class men .
In @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has found a running mate that matches their party perfectly .
The California senator represents the Democrats ’ diversity , with her Jamaican and Indian ancestry , Jewish husband , and Jewish stepchildren .
Hailing from the Bay Area , although now living in Brentwood , she ’ s pure West Coast blue .
If elected , she ’ ll be the first woman to occupy the vice-presidential mansion in Washington , D.C .
The first president or vice president since Warren Harding not to have had their own children .
Pence raised @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in Indiana is a fundamentalist Christian and a rock-ribbed Republican .
What differences he had with Trump on immigration or foreign policy are gone along with his once lonely crusade for a shield law to protect journalists ’ confidential sources .
( Pence was a radio host with some empathy for the news before it was fake . )
Trump and Biden are the oldest nominees to run .
Their combined ages are 151 .
John Kennedy and Richard Nixon ’ s combined ages were 90 .
If Biden wins , he ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ elected 60 years after JFK .
He will be the first widower president since Woodrow Wilson .
If Trump holds on , he ’ ll join Barack Obama and George W. Bush in a special club : Every president in this century will have won two-terms .
It now seems possible we ’ ll never have a president born in the 1950s , a decade big on babies but not babies who grew up to be president .
This election ’ s eventual victor will be a product of the 1940s , a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .