washingtonmonthly--2020-05-22--Can Lindsey Graham Win Reelection as a Trump Enabler?

The most significant long-term story in American politics these days is the realignment that is occurring in a few traditionally red states in the South like Virginia , North Carolina , Georgia , and possibly even Texas .
One state at the heart of the Confederacy that isn ’ t feeling that transition is South Carolina .
No one doubts that Donald Trump will win there in 2020 , even if his margin is lower than his 14 point win against Clinton in 2016 .
It is becoming increasingly clear , however , that Republican Senator Lindsey Graham has a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ South Carolina .
The most recent poll has him beating Democrat Jaime Harrison by only four points .
Perhaps more significantly , prognosticators at both the Cook Political Report and Larry Sabato ’ s Crystal Ball downgraded the race from “ solid ” Republican to “ likely ” Republican .
That is a bit of a sea change from Graham ’ s 15-point victory in 2014 .
The Lindsey Must Go super PAC has captured what could make Graham vulnerable in the Trump era by almost exclusively using the senator ’ s own @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has noticed the dramatic change in Graham over the last three years .
He went from calling out Trump ’ s unfitness for office and palling around with “ maverick ” John McCain , to being one of the president ’ s chief enablers .
There has been a lot of chatter about what caused that transformation , but we ’ ll probably never know what really happened .
The important thing is to notice “ the two faces of Lindsey Graham.
” That represents a cause for concern among both Trump defenders @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ad is so powerful .
Over the last couple of weeks , Graham has been on a bit of a roller coaster when it comes to his relationship with the president .
Initially , Trump pressed him to subpoena Barack Obama to testify about whatever it is that the president defines as “ Obamagate.
” Graham responded by saying that would be a bad idea and could open up a can of worms ( hint : Trump could be subpoenaed after he leaves office ) .
Gabriel Sherman reported that the president wasn @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Trump thinks Lindsey isn ’ t doing anything on Flynn , ” a former White House official said .
According to the former official , Trump recently asked prominent allies to tweet negative things about Graham , and he has been complaining that Graham is a hanger-on .
“ Trump has said , ‘ Since [ John ] McCain died , Lindsey follows me around and shows up to play golf and I don ’ t even invite him , ’ ” according to the source briefed on the conversation .
Senate Judiciary @ @ @ @ @ @ @ his colleagues on the panel for blanket permission to subpoena dozens of Obama and Trump administration officials connected to the investigation of Russian interference in the 2016 election — and contacts between President Donald Trump ’ s team and Russians .
His proposal would permit the South Carolina Republican to demand testimony and documents from figures involved in the intelligence associated with the launch of the Russia investigation , including Attorney General Loretta Lynch , former national intelligence director James Clapper , former CIA Director John Brennan and former FBI Director James Comey @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and see if that move by the senator appeases the president .
Graham ’ s situation captures exactly what Trump has done to the Republican Party .
The president is running for re-election on a strategy to mobilize the haters .
Graham stands no chance of winning without them .
But Trump ’ s strategy is offensive not only to Democrats , but also to the Never Trumpers .
There just might not be enough of them in South Carolina to defeat Graham .
But they could make this race competitive .

The most significant long-term story in American politics these days is the realignment that is occurring in a few traditionally red states in the South like Virginia, North Carolina, Georgia, and possibly even Texas. One state at the heart of the Confederacy that isn’t feeling that transition is South Carolina. No one doubts that Donald Trump will win there in 2020, even if his margin is lower than his 14 point win against Clinton in 2016.
It is becoming increasingly clear, however, that Republican Senator Lindsey Graham has a race on his hands for re-election in South Carolina. The most recent poll has him beating Democrat Jaime Harrison by only four points. Perhaps more significantly, prognosticators at both the Cook Political Report and Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball downgraded the race from “solid” Republican to “likely” Republican. That is a bit of a sea change from Graham’s 15-point victory in 2014.
The Lindsey Must Go super PAC has captured what could make Graham vulnerable in the Trump era by almost exclusively using the senator’s own words.
Anyone who watches politics closely has noticed the dramatic change in Graham over the last three years. He went from calling out Trump’s unfitness for office and palling around with “maverick” John McCain, to being one of the president’s chief enablers. There has been a lot of chatter about what caused that transformation, but we’ll probably never know what really happened. The important thing is to notice “the two faces of Lindsey Graham.” That represents a cause for concern among both Trump defenders and opponents, which is why this ad is so powerful.
Over the last couple of weeks, Graham has been on a bit of a roller coaster when it comes to his relationship with the president. Initially, Trump pressed him to subpoena Barack Obama to testify about whatever it is that the president defines as “Obamagate.” Graham responded by saying that would be a bad idea and could open up a can of worms (hint: Trump could be subpoenaed after he leaves office). Gabriel Sherman reported that the president wasn’t happy with that.
“Trump thinks Lindsey isn’t doing anything on Flynn,” a former White House official said. According to the former official, Trump recently asked prominent allies to tweet negative things about Graham, and he has been complaining that Graham is a hanger-on. “Trump has said, ‘Since [John] McCain died, Lindsey follows me around and shows up to play golf and I don’t even invite him,’” according to the source briefed on the conversation.
Graham snapped back with a compromise offer.
Senate Judiciary Chairman Lindsey Graham is preparing to ask his colleagues on the panel for blanket permission to subpoena dozens of Obama and Trump administration officials connected to the investigation of Russian interference in the 2016 election — and contacts between President Donald Trump’s team and Russians. His proposal would permit the South Carolina Republican to demand testimony and documents from figures involved in the intelligence associated with the launch of the Russia investigation, including Attorney General Loretta Lynch, former national intelligence director James Clapper, former CIA Director John Brennan and former FBI Director James Comey.
We’ll have to wait and see if that move by the senator appeases the president.
Graham’s situation captures exactly what Trump has done to the Republican Party. The president is running for re-election on a strategy to mobilize the haters. Graham stands no chance of winning without them. But Trump’s strategy is offensive not only to Democrats, but also to the Never Trumpers. There just might not be enough of them in South Carolina to defeat Graham. But they could make this race competitive.


washingtonmonthly--2020-05-22--Trump Needs to Win Michigan. So Why Is He Dumping on the State?

The polls out of Michigan haven ’ t looked very good recently for Donald Trump or really any members of the Republican Party .
This is a problem for both Mitch McConnell and the president .
For McConnell , Michigan is probably his second-best chance to knock off an incumbent Democrat after Alabama , as he tries to protect his party ’ s slim Senate majority .
But Sen. Gary Peters is leading in every survey taken this year , often by double digits .
For Trump , it ’ s a cause for anxiety because he probably needs to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ reelected , and over the last couple of months he ’ s been down six to nine points .
To demonstrate what I mean , if we were to spot Trump every swing state but Michigan and Pennsylvania , and give Trump one Electoral college vote from Maine for good measure , he would lose 271-267 .
If we were to give Trump Pennsylvania but take away Arizona and Wisconsin , he ’ d lose 272-266 .
If Trump loses both Michigan and Florida , he could carry Minnesota , Wisconsin , Arizona @ @ @ @ @ @ @ still lose 270-268 .
Finding winning scenarios without Michigan is therefore hard for Trump to accomplish .
After all , he ’ s currently behind or basically tied in every state that I just mentioned .
Perhaps that ’ s why Trump decided to visit Michigan on Thursday , but his strategy for winning the state is questionable .
He ’ s been picking a fight with Democratic Governor Gretchen Whitmer ever since the COVID-19 pandemic started , but he ’ s not getting the better of the brawl .
Polling consistently shows @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of her approach to handling the virus .
In fact , the numbers are so stark that Trump is probably increasing the chances that Whitmer will be selected as Biden ’ s running mate .
It must be tempting to Biden to pick someone who should help him lockdown a critical state .
During his trip , Trump violated state guidelines by refusing to wear a mask while in enclosed public spaces , which has caused a giant row with the state attorney general Dana Nessel who called him “ a ridiculous person @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” while adding that she she is “ ashamed to have him be president of the United States of America.
” The symbolism was particularly bad not only because Michiganders support the governor ’ s policies , but also because he was visiting a Ford factory that has been repurposed to produce ventilators and masks .
Ford did not respond to a request for comment from The Washington Post early Friday .
But in a statement to reporters after Trump ’ s visit , the company said that executive chairman Bill Ford had @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a face covering on his tour inside the Detroit-area factory that has been repurposed to produce ventilators and masks .
“ He wore a mask during a private viewing of three Ford GTs from over the years , ” the company ’ s statement said .
“ The President later removed the mask for the remainder of the visit.
” Trump said as much to reporters Thursday after he was questioned about his decision to go without a mask .
“ I had one on before , ” he said , standing barefaced @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and a large sign advertising the facility ’ s mask-making efforts .
“ But I didn ’ t want to give the press the pleasure of seeing it.
” …When asked to confirm Trump ’ s comments , Bill Ford only shrugged and responded , “ It ’ s up to him.
” Dana Nessel pointed out that if Trump infected anyone , it could cause the plant to close down , and that ’ s one reason to be concerned about Trump ’ s childish behavior .
But the main reason is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ behavior to American citizens and particularly to his supporters .
Apparently , he feels that doing the right thing would give the media satisfaction , and he can not abide that .
It ’ s probably safe to say that Trump didn ’ t help his chances of winning Michigan on Thursday , he that ’ s not the only self-injurious thing he did this week .
He also chose the day that two dams broke and inundated whole communities to threaten to withhold all federal aid from the state .
Michigan Governor @ @ @ @ @ @ @ they need to focus on the “ true enemy ” of coronavirus during a phone call after catastrophic flooding forced her to declare a state of emergency .
Mr. Trump , who will be visiting a Michigan Ford auto plant Thursday , has been encouraging protests against several states ’ lockdown orders , including Michigan , and recently threatened to cut funding to the state over mailing out absentee voting ballots .
“ To have this kind of distraction is just ridiculous to be honest , ” Whitmer said on “ CBS This @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to take money away from a state that is hurting as bad as we are right now is just scary .
And I think something that is unacceptable.
” This would be bad timing in the best of times , but it was based on a faulty premise , too .
Michigan isn ’ t mailing absentee ballots to its citizens , but only applications for ballots , which is something that several Republican-run states are also doing .
Coinciding with his Thursday visit , the president eventually approved an emergency declaration for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ done .
It seems that Trump knows he needs to win Michigan , but he doesn ’ t know how to make that more likely .

The polls out of Michigan haven’t looked very good recently for Donald Trump or really any members of the Republican Party. This is a problem for both Mitch McConnell and the president. For McConnell, Michigan is probably his second-best chance to knock off an incumbent Democrat after Alabama, as he tries to protect his party’s slim Senate majority. But Sen. Gary Peters is leading in every survey taken this year, often by double digits. For Trump, it’s a cause for anxiety because he probably needs to carry Michigan if he wants to be reelected, and over the last couple of months he’s been down six to nine points.
To demonstrate what I mean, if we were to spot Trump every swing state but Michigan and Pennsylvania, and give Trump one Electoral college vote from Maine for good measure, he would lose 271-267. If we were to give Trump Pennsylvania but take away Arizona and Wisconsin, he’d lose 272-266. If Trump loses both Michigan and Florida, he could carry Minnesota, Wisconsin, Arizona, North Carolina, and Georgia and still lose 270-268.
Finding winning scenarios without Michigan is therefore hard for Trump to accomplish. After all, he’s currently behind or basically tied in every state that I just mentioned. Perhaps that’s why Trump decided to visit Michigan on Thursday, but his strategy for winning the state is questionable.
He’s been picking a fight with Democratic Governor Gretchen Whitmer ever since the COVID-19 pandemic started, but he’s not getting the better of the brawl. Polling consistently shows that Michiganders like their governor and approve of her approach to handling the virus. In fact, the numbers are so stark that Trump is probably increasing the chances that Whitmer will be selected as Biden’s running mate. It must be tempting to Biden to pick someone who should help him lockdown a critical state.
During his trip, Trump violated state guidelines by refusing to wear a mask while in enclosed public spaces, which has caused a giant row with the state attorney general Dana Nessel who called him “a ridiculous person” and “a petulant child,” while adding that she she is “ashamed to have him be president of the United States of America.”
The symbolism was particularly bad not only because Michiganders support the governor’s policies, but also because he was visiting a Ford factory that has been repurposed to produce ventilators and masks.
Ford did not respond to a request for comment from The Washington Post early Friday. But in a statement to reporters after Trump’s visit, the company said that executive chairman Bill Ford had “encouraged” the president to wear a face covering on his tour inside the Detroit-area factory that has been repurposed to produce ventilators and masks. “He wore a mask during a private viewing of three Ford GTs from over the years,” the company’s statement said. “The President later removed the mask for the remainder of the visit.” Trump said as much to reporters Thursday after he was questioned about his decision to go without a mask. “I had one on before,” he said, standing barefaced in front of several men wearing masks and a large sign advertising the facility’s mask-making efforts. “But I didn’t want to give the press the pleasure of seeing it.” …When asked to confirm Trump’s comments, Bill Ford only shrugged and responded, “It’s up to him.”
Dana Nessel pointed out that if Trump infected anyone, it could cause the plant to close down, and that’s one reason to be concerned about Trump’s childish behavior. But the main reason is that we want him to model good behavior to American citizens and particularly to his supporters. Apparently, he feels that doing the right thing would give the media satisfaction, and he cannot abide that.
It’s probably safe to say that Trump didn’t help his chances of winning Michigan on Thursday, but that’s not the only self-injurious thing he did this week. He also chose the day that two dams broke and inundated whole communities to threaten to withhold all federal aid from the state.
Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer said she told President Trump they need to focus on the “true enemy” of coronavirus during a phone call after catastrophic flooding forced her to declare a state of emergency. Mr. Trump, who will be visiting a Michigan Ford auto plant Thursday, has been encouraging protests against several states’ lockdown orders, including Michigan, and recently threatened to cut funding to the state over mailing out absentee voting ballots. “To have this kind of distraction is just ridiculous to be honest,” Whitmer said on “CBS This Morning” on Thursday. “Threatening to take money away from a state that is hurting as bad as we are right now is just scary. And I think something that is unacceptable.”
This would be bad timing in the best of times, but it was based on a faulty premise, too. Michigan isn’t mailing absentee ballots to its citizens, but only applications for ballots, which is something that several Republican-run states are also doing. Coinciding with his Thursday visit, the president eventually approved an emergency declaration for the state, but the damage was done.
It seems that Trump knows he needs to win Michigan, but he doesn’t know how to make that more likely.


washingtonmonthly--2020-05-23--What Living Through the Polio Epidemic Taught Me About COVID-19

It began when I picked up the Washington Post magazine on a recent Sunday .
The cover story caught my eye—a daughter ’ s haunting tale of her relationship with her mother , whose childhood bout with polio would affect the rest of her life .
Polio feels a distant memory , but as I read the story , I recalled things I hadn ’ t thought about for decades .
As a child growing up on the Jersey shore in the late 40s and early 50s , at a time when polio was spreading at epidemic levels , I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ children alike , especially in the warm summer months when the virus really took hold .
No more family gatherings at Lake Lenape ( still waters were thought to be breeding grounds for polio ) ; cautious get-togethers with playmates—and whispers among the grown-ups about children they knew who had fallen ill with the disease , always with a sense of relief that , for now , their own children had been spared .
My mom ’ s safety zone was on the beach and in the ocean .
She would pack up @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , stake out a spot away from other families , and place her faith in the ability of the sea breezes and churning waves to keep the virus away .
This went on for years , changing the patterns of our lives .
We still went to school .
The coming of fall meant there was a respite from the spread of the virus , which attacked the central nervous system , mostly of children , and caused mild to disabling paralysis and sometimes death .
As time passed , we began to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ dangers and hoping not to be struck down .
There were constant reminders of what could befall us : terrifying pictures of children who had to live in iron lungs , the leg braces I saw on those less fortunate than myself .
Then , in 1955 , Jonas Salk discovered the vaccine .
My mom zipped me off to our family doctor at lightning speed , saying it was one of the happiest days of her life .
As I finished reading the Post magazine piece , I passed it along to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of his own memories of “ the polio scare , ” growing up on 13th Place in northeast Washington D.C. , just a short distance from the Franciscan Monastery .
He recalls summer days when he would venture out of his family ’ s row house , looking for kids on bikes or skates , maybe a pal or two to walk to the nearby school or the monastery for a day ’ s adventure .
Instead , he would find near-empty streets .
One summer day , his mom broke the news @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and died .
I also had a chance conversation with my friend Barbara .
I ’ ve known her for years , we ’ re part of a special lunch bunch that frequently spends three or four hours talking about everything from books to travel to world events , families , and grandkids .
When I mentioned the article to her , she said she had already read it with great interest because… she had polio when she was six years old .
How is it possible , I asked , that she @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ t think about it a lot , ” she said , “ but the article made me reflect—it gave me permission to realize that this was , in fact , a very big deal.
” Barbara has spent the past several days thinking about the sudden onset of the illness during her summer between first and second grades , the ride in the ambulance , propped up on one elbow to see pictures in the book her mother was reading to her along the way , not being able to sit up @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as the paralysis spread quickly .
She spent six weeks in a hospital ward with row upon row of other children with polio , unable to see her parents except for a short visit each Sunday .
She remembers the whirlpool tub treatments and the smell of the hot packs placed on her limbs to keep the paralysis from spreading .
It must have worked , she says , because in six weeks she was able to walk out of the hospital .
And yet , she hasn ’ t thought about it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ t sure her own grown children know that this happened to her .
It ’ s just something she tuned out internally , she says , an unconscious decision not to hold onto because it was just too scary .
I have been struck by these memories that we of a certain age have always carried with us , of another time when we practiced “ social distancing ” and stayed close to home , trying to avoid a frightening disease .
Some of us were lucky , some of us were @ @ @ @ @ @ @ observed the irony for my generation : We were the target group for polio when we were so young and we are now in the crosshairs of the coronavirus , the most at-risk group of Americans .
Today ’ s virus is much less discriminating when it comes to its target groups , and it will be with us for quite some time .
I realize now that the lessons I learned so many years ago have come into play once again , as I watch warily and learn to accommodate the virus @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is found .
When that day comes , I will be reminded , again , of the gift that Jonas Salk gave to us all so long ago .
For the sake of all of us now , across all generations , for everyone who is waiting to hug their families and friends and get back to their lives , I hope that day comes soon .

It began when I picked up the Washington Post magazine on a recent Sunday. The cover story caught my eye—a daughter’s haunting tale of her relationship with her mother, whose childhood bout with polio would affect the rest of her life. Polio feels a distant memory, but as I read the story, I recalled things I hadn’t thought about for decades.
As a child growing up on the Jersey shore in the late 40s and early 50s, at a time when polio was spreading at epidemic levels, I saw the fear that gripped parents and children alike, especially in the warm summer months when the virus really took hold. No more family gatherings at Lake Lenape (still waters were thought to be breeding grounds for polio); cautious get-togethers with playmates—and whispers among the grown-ups about children they knew who had fallen ill with the disease, always with a sense of relief that, for now, their own children had been spared. My mom’s safety zone was on the beach and in the ocean. She would pack up my sister and me almost every day, stake out a spot away from other families, and place her faith in the ability of the sea breezes and churning waves to keep the virus away.
This went on for years, changing the patterns of our lives. We still went to school. The coming of fall meant there was a respite from the spread of the virus, which attacked the central nervous system, mostly of children, and caused mild to disabling paralysis and sometimes death. As time passed, we began to accept the ever-present threat, avoiding known dangers and hoping not to be struck down. There were constant reminders of what could befall us: terrifying pictures of children who had to live in iron lungs, the leg braces I saw on those less fortunate than myself. Then, in 1955, Jonas Salk discovered the vaccine. My mom zipped me off to our family doctor at lightning speed, saying it was one of the happiest days of her life.
As I finished reading the Post magazine piece, I passed it along to my husband Carl. He told me of his own memories of “the polio scare,” growing up on 13th Place in northeast Washington D.C., just a short distance from the Franciscan Monastery. He recalls summer days when he would venture out of his family’s row house, looking for kids on bikes or skates, maybe a pal or two to walk to the nearby school or the monastery for a day’s adventure. Instead, he would find near-empty streets. One summer day, his mom broke the news about a playmate who caught the disease and died.
I also had a chance conversation with my friend Barbara. I’ve known her for years, we’re part of a special lunch bunch that frequently spends three or four hours talking about everything from books to travel to world events, families, and grandkids. When I mentioned the article to her, she said she had already read it with great interest because… she had polio when she was six years old. How is it possible, I asked, that she never mentioned this? “I don’t think about it a lot,” she said, “but the article made me reflect—it gave me permission to realize that this was, in fact, a very big deal.”
Barbara has spent the past several days thinking about the sudden onset of the illness during her summer between first and second grades, the ride in the ambulance, propped up on one elbow to see pictures in the book her mother was reading to her along the way, not being able to sit up by the time they reached the hospital as the paralysis spread quickly. She spent six weeks in a hospital ward with row upon row of other children with polio, unable to see her parents except for a short visit each Sunday. She remembers the whirlpool tub treatments and the smell of the hot packs placed on her limbs to keep the paralysis from spreading. It must have worked, she says, because in six weeks she was able to walk out of the hospital. And yet, she hasn’t thought about it much. In fact, she isn’t sure her own grown children know that this happened to her. It’s just something she tuned out internally, she says, an unconscious decision not to hold onto because it was just too scary.
I have been struck by these memories that we of a certain age have always carried with us, of another time when we practiced “social distancing” and stayed close to home, trying to avoid a frightening disease. Some of us were lucky, some of us were not. One of my younger friends observed the irony for my generation: We were the target group for polio when we were so young and we are now in the crosshairs of the coronavirus, the most at-risk group of Americans.
Today’s virus is much less discriminating when it comes to its target groups, and it will be with us for quite some time. I realize now that the lessons I learned so many years ago have come into play once again, as I watch warily and learn to accommodate the virus’s presence until another miracle vaccine is found. When that day comes, I will be reminded, again, of the gift that Jonas Salk gave to us all so long ago. For the sake of all of us now, across all generations, for everyone who is waiting to hug their families and friends and get back to their lives, I hope that day comes soon.


washingtonmonthly--2020-05-23--Trump Can’t Force the Country to Re-Open. He’ll Have to Actually Do the Work To Quell the Virus

Donald Trump ’ s peculiar personality defects have never been more apparent than in his confused , blustering response to the ongoing pandemic .
His signature combination of aggressive , ignorant mendacity has been particularly catastrophic in response to this once-in-a-century crisis .
Beyond his personal failings , however , when the history of Trump ’ s response to COVID-19 is written , it will show that he didn ’ t want to believe the threat was real , didn ’ t want to do the work to deal with it once the damage became obvious , and then tried @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and propaganda to will it out of existence .
But unlike most political issues in America where the conservative propaganda machine has managed to being public opinion and to a certain extent even reality itself to its will , the virus is implacable .
It does what it does without regard to what Trump , Fox News or AM Radio says about it .
Most of the public has caught on as well .
Desperate to buoy his deflating poll numbers , Trump is eager to restart the economy ( and his political @ @ @ @ @ @ @ soon as possible .
He has declared that he has the authority to supersede governors in doing so ( he does not : the 10th Amendment to the Constitution clearly relegates that power to the states . )
But beyond that , even if Trump could wave a magic wand and force the entire government and every shuttered American business to reopen tomorrow , it ’ s not at all clear that regular people would cooperate .
According to a new AP-NORC poll : [ M ] any are apprehensive about re-engaging in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ attending movies , concerts , or sporting events , using public transportation , or even going out to bars and restaurants .
People ’ s post shutdown plans depend on what they did before the outbreak .
Overall , 38 % say they would attend religious services .
But among people who attended services at least once a month before the coronavirus outbreak , 67 % say they would return to their church , synagogue , or mosque if restrictions were lifted .
Fifty-two percent of those who ate out at least once @ @ @ @ @ @ @ expect to head to a restaurant or bar .
Still , even among those that regularly engaged in activities that draw a crowd , like sporting events , concerts and movies , or using public transportation , fewer than half plan to return to them in the short term once restrictions are lifted .
There ’ s also the economic psychology to deal with : the tens of millions of Americans who are now either temporarily or permanently laid off from their previous jobs aren ’ t going to be splurging on cocktails @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Some of the economic damage was inevitable given the impact of the virus , of course .
But a huge amount of the blame for the economic fallout falls on stingy Congressional Republicans who refused to do what so many other countries did in guaranteeing wages and housing protections so that people could maintain a firm financial footing during the months of lockdown .
Most state governors will not recklessly court a second wave of COVID-19 just to temporarily help the president ’ s re-election prospects , knowing that they will be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ they do , most regular people won ’ t be going out to get sick spending limited disposable income .
The only credible way out of this crisis–at least until the distribution of an effective vaccine which likely is still at least a year away–is to do the hard work of testing and contact tracing .
Which in turn means admitting the real number of cases and deaths ( looking at you , Florida ) , and moving aggressively to quarantine the sick and those most immediately at risk .
This is the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ resisted doing as they tried to manage the disease as a media problem rather than a public health problem .
They tried to minimize the official number of cases by not testing and then hoping it would go away , fearing a dip in the stock market above all else .
As it turns out , the stock market is doing fine–due largely to the now-unbridgeable gap between Wall Street and Main Street .
But regular people are hurting badly , the real economy is teetering on the edge , and no number @ @ @ @ @ @ @ do what Trump wants , or force people into the stores and stadiums even if they could .
This administration is going to have to buckle up and do the hard work they ’ ve been avoiding now for months , or this crisis will continue to spin out of their control all the way through election day and beyond .

Donald Trump’s peculiar personality defects have never been more apparent than in his confused, blustering response to the ongoing pandemic. His signature combination of aggressive, ignorant mendacity has been particularly catastrophic in reaction to this once-in-a-century crisis.
When the history of the COVID-19 pandemic is written, it will show that Trump didn’t want to believe the threat was real, didn’t want to do the work to deal with it once the damage became obvious, and then tried to use wishful thinking, magic cures, and propaganda to will it out of existence.
But unlike most political issues in America in which the conservative propaganda machine has brought large swaths of public opinion where it wants it to be, the virus is implacable. It does what it does without regard to what Trump, Fox News, or AM Radio says about it.
Most of the public has caught on. Desperate to buoy his deflating poll numbers, Trump is eager to restart the economy (and his political organizing base in evangelical churches) as soon as possible. He has declared that he has the authority to supersede governors in doing so (he does not: the 10th Amendment to the Constitution clearly relegates that power to the states).
Yet even if Trump could wave a magic wand and force the entire government and every shuttered American business to reopen tomorrow, it’s not at all clear that people would cooperate. According to a new AP-NORC poll:
[M]any are apprehensive about re-engaging in activities that draw a crowd, like attending movies, concerts, or sporting events, using public transportation, or even going out to bars and restaurants. People’s post shutdown plans depend on what they did before the outbreak. Overall, 38% say they would attend religious services. But among people who attended services at least once a month before the coronavirus outbreak, 67% say they would return to their church, synagogue, or mosque if restrictions were lifted. Fifty-two percent of those who ate out at least once a month before the outbreak say they expect to head to a restaurant or bar. Still, even among those that regularly engaged in activities that draw a crowd, like sporting events, concerts and movies, or using public transportation, fewer than half plan to return to them in the short term once restrictions are lifted.
There’s also the economic psychology to deal with: the tens of millions of Americans who are now either temporarily or permanently laid off from their previous jobs aren’t going to be splurging on cocktails, sporting events, or manicures any time soon.
Of course, some of the economic damage was inevitable given the impact of the virus. But a huge amount of the blame for the economic fallout falls on stingy Congressional Republicans who refused to do what so many other countries did in guaranteeing wages and housing protections so that people could maintain a firm financial footing during the months of lockdown.
Most state governors will not recklessly court a second wave of COVID-19 just to temporarily help the president’s reelection prospects, knowing that they will ultimately be blamed for the consequences. Even if they do, most ordinary Americans won’t be going out to get sick and spend their limited disposable income.
The only credible way out of this crisis—at least until the distribution of an effective vaccine, which likely is still at least a year away—is to do the hard work of testing and contact tracing. That, in turn, means the federal government and state governments telling the public the real number of cases and deaths (looking at you, Florida), and moving aggressively to quarantine the sick and those most immediately at risk.
This is the work Trump and his team have most resisted doing as they tried to manage the disease. They treat it as a media problem rather than a public health problem. They tried to minimize the official number of cases by not ramping up testing and then hoping it would go away, fearing a dip in the stock market above all else.
As it turns out, the stock market is doing fine—due largely to the now-unbridgeable gap between Wall Street and Main Street. But regular people are hurting badly, the real economy is teetering on the edge, and no number of executive orders can make the governors do what Trump wants, or force people into stores and stadiums, even if they could.
This administration is going to have to buckle up and do the hard work they’ve been avoiding now for months, or this crisis will continue to spin out of their control all the way through Election Day and beyond.


washingtonmonthly--2020-05-24--We Need to Speak Honestly About the GOP’s Evolution Into a Conspiracy Cult

One of the challenges in analyzing modern American politics is accurately describing the Republican Party without seeming unserious and hyperbolic .
Major publications are understandably in the habit of presenting both sides of the partisan divide as being inherently worthy of respect and equal consideration , both as a way of shielding themselves from accusations of bias and as a way of maintaining their own sense of journalistic integrity .
Unfortunately , the modern Republican Party ’ s abdication of seriousness , good faith and reality-based communications or policy-making has stretched even the most open-minded analyst ’ s capacity for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ own inability to string together coherent or consistent thoughts has led to a bizarre normalization of his statements in the traditional media , as journalists unconsciously try to fit his rambling , spontaneous utterances into a conventional framework .
This has come at the cost of Americans seeing the full truth of the crisis of leadership in the Oval Office for what it is .
For instance , it was ironically salutary for the American public to witness Donald Trump ’ s bizarre pandemic press conferences where he oddly attacked reporters for asking @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sunlight injections , because they got to see Trump raw as he truly is , without the normalization filter .
Republicans have long argued that the “ mainstream media filter ” gives them a bad shake , but the reality is the opposite : sure , it ’ s not as good as being boosted by Fox News ’ overt propaganda , but it does them a greater service than letting the public see them unfiltered at all .
But there comes a tipping point at which it becomes too dangerous to keep @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of center would argue ( rightly , I believe ) that we hit that point long , long ago and the time to re-evaluate journalistic norms and practices should have been decades earlier when the GOP was busy covering up the Iran Contra scandal and promoting the Laffer Curve as serious public policy .
Or that any number of catastrophes of conservative public policy and norm erosion since should have sounded the alarms along the way , from the Bush v Gore decision and the Brooks Brothers Riots to the lies justifying the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Wall Street crash , birtherism , the Benghazi obsession and the nomination of Donald Trump .
Many would point with legitimate outrage to the abdication of responsibility in the face of climate change , yawning inequality , forced family separation policy , children in cages and so much else .
But even faced with awful consequences of all these horrors , a defender of traditional journalism might simply chalk them up to policy differences in a democratic society .
They would be wrong to do so , but the position would be intellectually @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has been a shift among GOP voters that is different not just in degree of virulence , but also in kind .
For a host of different reasons , core Republican voters have begun to reconstitute themselves as a conspiracy theory cult devoted to beliefs that were once relegated to the farthest fringe–fictions that can not help but end in civil conflict and violence if they fully become canon among conservative voters nationwide .
This process arguably began as far back as Glenn Beck ’ s prominence on Fox News , but it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ paranoid fantasy .
Being a Republican now requires believing in a jaw-dropping series of claims that , if true , would almost necessitate anti-democratic revanchism .
One has to believe that a cabal of evil scientists is making up climate science in exchange for grant money ; that there is rampant , widescale voter impersonation fraud carried out by thousands of elections officials nationwide ; that the “ Deep State ” concocted a scheme to frame Trump for Russian collusion but chose not to use it before the 2016 election ; that shadowy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ across American borders in the service of destroying white Republican America ; that the entire news media is engaged in a conspiracy against the Republican Party ; that grieving victims of gun violence and their families all across America want to take away guns as a pretext for stomping the boot of “ liberal fascism ” on conservative faces ; and so on .
That and much more is just the vanilla Republican belief system at this point ( not even touching less explosive academic fictions like “ tax cuts pay for themselves @ @ @ @ @ @ @ harder to better themselves if you cut the safety net.
” ) But things have gotten even worse in the few years short years since the Trump era began .
Once a far-fringe conspiracy theory relegated to 8chan and neo-nazi filled knockoffs of Reddit , the QAnon conspiracy theory ( which , among other things , posits that a wide swath of prominent Democrats , celebrities and assorted rich people are engaged in pedophilia and adrenochrome harvesting of children , and that the Trump Administration is always just a few weeks away from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ once QANON followers have awakened enough of the “ normie ” public ) has become so pervasive that not only do “ Q ” signs pop up at almost every major conservative rally or protest , but a true believer is now the GOP nominee for Senate in Oregon .
When her campaign attempted to backtrack , she doubled down , saying “ ” My campaign is gon na kill me…How do I say this ?
Some people think that I follow Q like I follow Jesus .
Q is the information and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ This conspiracy theory is destroying families , relationships , and the mental health of its adherents .
A healthy and normal political party would inoculate itself from it and debunk it quickly .
But the GOP is not a healthy or normal political party .
It doesn ’ t stop there .
Almost half of Fox News viewers–the core of the GOP–believe that Bill Gates is using the COVID-19 pandemic to microchip them .
And Donald Trump has been promoting a series of conspiracy theories on twitter each more outlandish than the last @ @ @ @ @ @ @ news hosts he dislikes to concocted accusations against former president Barack Obama .
Go to any conservative event and you ’ ll notice a shift from even the raucous detached weirdness of Tea Party rallies .
They feel less like political events than cult rallies .
Cult experts like Steven Hassan have taken note of this , calling it exactly what it is : a cult built around manufactured realities , shared grievances and us-against-them insular extremism .
The increasing dependence of Republican politicians on a shrinking , embattled white evangelical base already @ @ @ @ @ @ @ racism-tinged “ city on a hill ” ideology has only exacerbated the phenomenon .
It ’ s long past time for even the venerable pages of the New York Times and the Washington Post to start calling this what it is , and stop normalizing it as standard partisanship .
It is deeply dangerous in a democracy whose constitution functionally guarantees a two-party system , for one of those two parties to become a conspiracy cult .
But that is exactly what has happened .
And the first step to fixing it is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ no matter how uncomfortable that might be for institutions and journalism professionals who find that sort of language loaded with unprofessional bias .
The truth is what it is , even if it requires rethinking the role of a responsible press in an era of white anxiety and mass social-media-fueled disinformation .

One of the challenges in analyzing modern American politics is accurately describing the Republican Party without seeming unserious and hyperbolic. Major publications are understandably in the habit of presenting both sides of the partisan divide as being inherently worthy of respect and equal consideration, both as a way of shielding themselves from accusations of bias and as a way of maintaining their own sense of journalistic integrity.
Unfortunately, the modern Republican Party’s abdication of seriousness, good faith and reality-based communications or policy-making has stretched even the most open-minded analyst’s capacity for forced balance. Donald Trump’s own inability to string together coherent or consistent thoughts has led to a bizarre normalization of his statements in the traditional media, as journalists unconsciously try to fit his rambling, spontaneous utterances into a conventional framework. This has come at the cost of Americans seeing the full truth of the crisis of leadership in the Oval Office for what it is. For instance, it was ironically salutary for the American public to witness Donald Trump’s bizarre pandemic press conferences where he oddly attacked reporters for asking innocuous questions and recommended researching bleach and sunlight injections, because they got to see Trump raw as he truly is, without the normalization filter. Republicans have long argued that the “mainstream media filter” gives them a bad shake, but the reality is the opposite: sure, it’s not as good as being boosted by Fox News’ overt propaganda, but it does them a greater service than letting the public see them unfiltered at all.
But there comes a tipping point at which it becomes too dangerous to keep up the pretense. Most people left of center would argue (rightly, I believe) that we hit that point long, long ago and the time to re-evaluate journalistic norms and practices should have been decades earlier when the GOP was busy covering up the Iran Contra scandal and promoting the Laffer Curve as serious public policy. Or that any number of catastrophes of conservative public policy and norm erosion since should have sounded the alarms along the way, from the Bush v Gore decision and the Brooks Brothers Riots to the lies justifying the invasion of Iraq, to the deregulation-fueled Wall Street crash, birtherism, the Benghazi obsession and the nomination of Donald Trump. Many would point with legitimate outrage to the abdication of responsibility in the face of climate change, yawning inequality, forced family separation policy, children in cages and so much else.
But even faced with awful consequences of all these horrors, a defender of traditional journalism might simply chalk them up to policy differences in a democratic society. They would be wrong to do so, but the position would be intellectually defensible in principle.
But recently there has been a shift among GOP voters that is different not just in degree of virulence, but also in kind. For a host of different reasons, core Republican voters have begun to reconstitute themselves as a conspiracy theory cult devoted to beliefs that were once relegated to the farthest fringe–fictions that cannot help but end in civil conflict and violence if they fully become canon among conservative voters nationwide. This process arguably began as far back as Glenn Beck’s prominence on Fox News, but it has now blossomed into a grandiose collective paranoid fantasy.
Being a Republican now requires believing in a jaw-dropping series of claims that, if true, would almost necessitate anti-democratic revanchism. One has to believe that a cabal of evil scientists is making up climate science in exchange for grant money; that there is rampant, widescale voter impersonation fraud carried out by thousands of elections officials nationwide; that the “Deep State” concocted a scheme to frame Trump for Russian collusion but chose not to use it before the 2016 election; that shadowy forces are driving migrant caravans and diseases across American borders in the service of destroying white Republican America; that the entire news media is engaged in a conspiracy against the Republican Party; that grieving victims of gun violence and their families all across America want to take away guns as a pretext for stomping the boot of “liberal fascism” on conservative faces; and so on. That and much more is just the vanilla Republican belief system at this point (not even touching less explosive academic fictions like “tax cuts pay for themselves” or “the poor will work harder to better themselves if you cut the safety net.”)
But things have gotten even worse in the few years short years since the Trump era began. Once a far-fringe conspiracy theory relegated to 8chan and neo-nazi filled knockoffs of Reddit, the QAnon conspiracy theory (which, among other things, posits that a wide swath of prominent Democrats, celebrities and assorted rich people are engaged in pedophilia and adrenochrome harvesting of children, and that the Trump Administration is always just a few weeks away from conducting mass arrests and summary executions–but only once QANON followers have awakened enough of the “normie” public) has become so pervasive that not only do “Q” signs pop up at almost every major conservative rally or protest, but a true believer is now the GOP nominee for Senate in Oregon. When her campaign attempted to backtrack, she doubled down, saying “”My campaign is gonna kill me…How do I say this? Some people think that I follow Q like I follow Jesus. Q is the information and I stand with the information resource.” This conspiracy theory is destroying families, relationships, and the mental health of its adherents. A healthy and normal political party would inoculate itself from it and debunk it quickly. But the GOP is not a healthy or normal political party.
It doesn’t stop there. Almost half of Fox News viewers—the core of the GOP—believe that Bill Gates is using the COVID-19 pandemic to microchip them. And Donald Trump has been promoting a series of conspiracy theories on twitter each more outlandish than the last, from old debunked accusations against cable news hosts he dislikes to concocted accusations against former president Barack Obama.
Go to any conservative event and you’ll notice a shift from even the raucous detached weirdness of Tea Party rallies. They feel less like political events than cult rallies. Cult experts like Steven Hassan have taken note of this, calling it exactly what it is: a cult built around manufactured realities, shared grievances and us-against-them insular extremism. The increasing dependence of Republican politicians on a shrinking, embattled white evangelical base already given over to faith-based belief systems and racism-tinged “city on a hill” ideology has only exacerbated the phenomenon.
It’s long past time for even the venerable pages of the New York Times and the Washington Post to start calling this what it is, and stop normalizing it as standard partisanship. It is deeply dangerous in a democracy whose constitution functionally guarantees a two-party system, for one of those two parties to become a conspiracy cult.
But that is exactly what has happened. And the first step to fixing it is to call it what it is, no matter how uncomfortable that might be for institutions and journalism professionals who find that sort of language loaded with unprofessional bias. The truth is what it is, even if it requires rethinking the role of a responsible press in an era of white anxiety and mass social-media-fueled disinformation.


washingtonmonthly--2020-05-23--Trump Can’t Just Make Country Re-Open. He Has To Actually Stem the Outbreak.

Donald Trump ’ s peculiar personality defects have never been more apparent than in his confused , blustering response to the ongoing pandemic .
His signature combination of aggressive , ignorant mendacity has been particularly catastrophic in reaction to this once-in-a-century crisis .
When the history of the COVID-19 pandemic is written , it will show that Trump didn ’ t want to believe the threat was real , didn ’ t want to do the work to deal with it once the damage became obvious , and then tried to use wishful thinking , magic cures , and propaganda @ @ @ @ @ @ @ But unlike most political issues in America in which the conservative propaganda machine has brought large swaths of public opinion where it wants it to be , the virus is implacable .
It does what it does without regard to what Trump , Fox News , or AM Radio says about it .
Most of the public has caught on .
Desperate to buoy his deflating poll numbers , Trump is eager to restart the economy ( and his political organizing base in evangelical churches ) as soon as possible .
He has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ supersede governors in doing so ( he does not : the 10th Amendment to the Constitution clearly relegates that power to the states ) .
Yet even if Trump could wave a magic wand and force the entire government and every shuttered American business to reopen tomorrow , it ’ s not at all clear that people would cooperate .
According to a new AP-NORC poll : [ M ] any are apprehensive about re-engaging in activities that draw a crowd , like attending movies , concerts , or sporting events , using @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to bars and restaurants .
People ’ s post shutdown plans depend on what they did before the outbreak .
Overall , 38 % say they would attend religious services .
But among people who attended services at least once a month before the coronavirus outbreak , 67 % say they would return to their church , synagogue , or mosque if restrictions were lifted .
Fifty-two percent of those who ate out at least once a month before the outbreak say they expect to head to a restaurant or bar .
Still @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in activities that draw a crowd , like sporting events , concerts and movies , or using public transportation , fewer than half plan to return to them in the short term once restrictions are lifted .
There ’ s also the economic psychology to deal with : the tens of millions of Americans who are now either temporarily or permanently laid off from their previous jobs aren ’ t going to be splurging on cocktails , sporting events , or manicures any time soon .
Of course , some of the economic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the virus .
But a huge amount of the blame for the economic fallout falls on stingy Congressional Republicans who refused to do what so many other countries did in guaranteeing wages and housing protections so that people could maintain a firm financial footing during the months of lockdown .
Most state governors will not recklessly court a second wave of COVID-19 just to temporarily help the president ’ s reelection prospects , knowing that they will ultimately be blamed for the consequences .
Even if they do , most ordinary Americans won @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sick and spend their limited disposable income .
The only credible way out of this crisis—at least until the distribution of an effective vaccine , which likely is still at least a year away—is to do the hard work of testing and contact tracing .
That , in turn , means the federal government and state governments telling the public the real number of cases and deaths ( looking at you , Florida ) , and moving aggressively to quarantine the sick and those most immediately at risk .
This is the work @ @ @ @ @ @ @ doing as they tried to manage the disease .
They treat it as a media problem rather than a public health problem .
They tried to minimize the official number of cases by not ramping up testing and then hoping it would go away , fearing a dip in the stock market above all else .
As it turns out , the stock market is doing fine—due largely to the now-unbridgeable gap between Wall Street and Main Street .
But regular people are hurting badly , the real economy is teetering on the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ orders can make the governors do what Trump wants , or force people into stores and stadiums , even if they could .
This administration is going to have to buckle up and do the hard work they ’ ve been avoiding now for months , or this crisis will continue to spin out of their control all the way through Election Day and beyond .


washingtonmonthly--2020-05-24--A Warren VP Pick Would Show That Biden Is Serious About Repairing the Economy

Recent reports are suggesting that Joe Biden is looking more seriously than ever at choosing Massachusetts Senator and former presidential rival Elizabeth Warren as his running mate .
It seems like an unusual choice at first : running mates are typically chosen to balance out the nominee in a specific demographic and geographic way .
But times have changed and old rules have less relevance now .
The biggest divide in the Democratic primary was age : voters over 45 strongly preferred Biden , while voters under 45 strongly preferred Sanders , with Warren in a distant but consistent second @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Biden ’ s biggest weakness among Democratic-leaning voters is low enthusiasm from young people desperate for radical changes to an economy that seems impossibly rigged against them .
Given the nationalization of politics , it ’ s not clear that a geographically targeted pick will yield results .
It ’ s not clear that picking Tim Kaine helped Clinton to do any better in Virginia than she would have otherwise , for instance .
Pressure on Biden is understandably and admirably intense to pick a woman of color , but Warren is currently @ @ @ @ @ @ @ both African-American and Hispanic/Latinx voters .
But there ’ s another even bigger picure .
The key fracture in the primary was over a return to pre-Trump normalcy , versus the bolder transformative visions for American society pitched by Sanders and Warren .
The need for rethinking the rules of the economy was already urgent before the pandemic , but the economic consequences latest crisis only exacerbate the need for bolder changes .
Billionaires are getting richer than ever even as tens of millions have lost their jobs and face ruin .
21st @ @ @ @ @ @ @ crisis unprecedented since the Gilded Age .
Small business closures in the COVID-19 era , combined with the plutocrat-response of the federal government in bailing out big business while leaving crumbs for small business , will only make it far worse .
Even Joe Biden ’ s team is taking note of the shifting ground , and Warren seems uniquely suited to help him meet the challenge : Warren has focused her political career on holding big business , Wall Street and corporations accountable .
Her messaging has been consistent about changing the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ even playing field to workers and small business .
In doing so , she has adopted most of the essential critiques of the system made by younger democratic socialists and social democrats , without scaring off the suburban coalition that has become essential to Democratic electoral fortunes .
If Biden does take over the presidency in January 2021 , he will almost certainly be faced with daunting challenges , not least of which will an economy in need of rescue not only from self-imposed recession but also decades of structural neglect .
Rampant @ @ @ @ @ @ @ looming threat of climate change will also need urgent action .
It ’ s a relevantly similar situation to the one he and Barack Obama faced in 2009 during the Great Recession , and one of the clearest lessons from that period was that the stimulus response was not only inadequate to the need , but that Republicans will oppose whatever Democrats ask for no matter what .
So Democrats must be bold in making demands , and use whatever levers of power are available to move policy in the right direction , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to block them at every turn .
Warren , with her focus on Big Structural Change , is uniquely suited to credibly help the Biden Administration bend the bureaucracy to the needs of the public .
And Warren can do it while remaining consistent with the Biden appeal to basic decency so crucial to appealing to voters sick of Trump ’ s daily offensive outrages .
Her more measured demeanor may not be as thrilling to understandably angry young voters as Sanders ’ , but it also communicates the necessary transformative policy focus @ @ @ @ @ @ @ currently is .
There may come a day as Millennials approach their fifties and combine with Generation Z to become the dominant likely voter bloc , when a much more aggressive democratic socialist politics can win nationally .
But the results of the 2018 midterms and the 2020 Democratic primary made it clear that that day has not arrived .
But we are also long past the point where we can credibly advocate a return to a pre-Trump “ normal.
” That “ normal ” wasn ’ t actually good to begin with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Clinton/Bush/Obama eras have now exploded into raging bonfires in the wake of Trump ’ s disastrous presidency .
Warren supporters during the primary felt that she was the best bet to bridge the divide between the need for big structural change and the desire to return to a calmer decency in public life .
She remains the best choice to do so from among Biden ’ s possible vice-presidential choices , especially as Democrats confront the economic devastation left by the pandemic .

Recent reports are suggesting that Joe Biden is looking more seriously than ever at choosing Massachusetts Senator and former presidential rival Elizabeth Warren as his running mate.
It seems like an unusual choice at first: running mates are typically chosen to balance out the nominee in a specific demographic and geographic way. But times have changed and old rules have less relevance now. The biggest divide in the Democratic primary was age: voters over 45 strongly preferred Biden, while voters under 45 strongly preferred Sanders, with Warren in a distant but consistent second in most polling. Even now, Biden’s biggest weakness among Democratic-leaning voters is low enthusiasm from young people desperate for radical changes to an economy that seems impossibly rigged against them.
Given the nationalization of politics, it’s not clear that a geographically targeted pick will yield results. It’s not clear that picking Tim Kaine helped Clinton to do any better in Virginia than she would have otherwise, for instance. Pressure on Biden is understandably and admirably intense to pick a woman of color, but Warren is currently the most popular choice for VP among both African-American and Hispanic/Latinx voters.
But there’s another even bigger picure. The key fracture in the primary was over a return to pre-Trump normalcy, versus the bolder transformative visions for American society pitched by Sanders and Warren. The need for rethinking the rules of the economy was already urgent before the pandemic, but the economic consequences latest crisis only exacerbate the need for bolder changes. Billionaires are getting richer than ever even as tens of millions have lost their jobs and face ruin. 21st century economies were already facing a monopolization crisis unprecedented since the Gilded Age. Small business closures in the COVID-19 era, combined with the plutocrat-response of the federal government in bailing out big business while leaving crumbs for small business, will only make it far worse.
Even Joe Biden’s team is taking note of the shifting ground, and Warren seems uniquely suited to help him meet the challenge:
Biden spent much of the Democratic primary locked in on a pledge to revive decency in American political culture. Warren ran on a call for “big, structural change” that launched her to the top of the polls in the summer of 2019, but didn’t translate into success this year. The heart of Biden’s appeal remains steady, but as the coronavirus fallout deepens, he has also begun to telegraph a desire to strike out with a more ambitious policy agenda — a political enterprise, in scope and scale, that many Warren allies believe she is uniquely qualified to shepherd through the mazy, grinding gears of government.
Warren has focused her political career on holding big business, Wall Street and corporations accountable. Her messaging has been consistent about changing the rules of American capitalism to give an even playing field to workers and small business. In doing so, she has adopted most of the essential critiques of the system made by younger democratic socialists and social democrats, without scaring off the suburban coalition that has become essential to Democratic electoral fortunes.
If Biden does take over the presidency in January 2021, he will almost certainly be faced with daunting challenges, not least of which will an economy in need of rescue not only from self-imposed recession but also decades of structural neglect. Rampant inequalities, a healthcare crisis and the looming threat of climate change will also need urgent action. It’s a relevantly similar situation to the one he and Barack Obama faced in 2009 during the Great Recession, and one of the clearest lessons from that period was that the stimulus response was not only inadequate to the need, but that Republicans will oppose whatever Democrats ask for no matter what. So Democrats must be bold in making demands, and use whatever levers of power are available to move policy in the right direction, knowing that conservative structural impediments will attempt to block them at every turn. Warren, with her focus on Big Structural Change, is uniquely suited to credibly help the Biden Administration bend the bureaucracy to the needs of the public.
And Warren can do it while remaining consistent with the Biden appeal to basic decency so crucial to appealing to voters sick of Trump’s daily offensive outrages. Her more measured demeanor may not be as thrilling to understandably angry young voters as Sanders’, but it also communicates the necessary transformative policy focus while reaching the anti-Trump base where it currently is.
There may come a day as Millennials approach their fifties and combine with Generation Z to become the dominant likely voter bloc, when a much more aggressive democratic socialist politics can win nationally. But the results of the 2018 midterms and the 2020 Democratic primary made it clear that that day has not arrived. But we are also long past the point where we can credibly advocate a return to a pre-Trump “normal.” That “normal” wasn’t actually good to begin with, and the burgeoning unaddressed crises of the Clinton/Bush/Obama eras have now exploded into raging bonfires in the wake of Trump’s disastrous presidency.
Warren supporters during the primary felt that she was the best bet to bridge the divide between the need for big structural change and the desire to return to a calmer decency in public life. She remains the best choice to do so from among Biden’s possible vice-presidential choices, especially as Democrats confront the economic devastation left by the pandemic.


washingtonmonthly--2020-05-25--Trump Sabotaged America’s Recovery Even Before COVID-19 Began

“ Vaccine or no vaccine , we ’ re back , ” President Donald Trump said last week as governors nationwide began relaxing the restrictions prompted by Covid-19 .
Trump has been the nation ’ s most ardent advocate for restarting the economy , even as most states have so far failed to meet his own administration ’ s metrics for a safe reopening .
And little wonder : Trump is desperate to regain even a vestige of the pre-pandemic economy ’ s strength in time for the election this fall .
But for all his cheerleading , Trump is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rebound he ’ s hoping for—in large part due to sabotage inflicted by his own policies .
Thanks to his administration ’ s early and ongoing failures to address the coronavirus outbreak , much of the nation still lacks the testing and contact tracing infrastructure necessary to control the virus ’ s inevitable resurgence .
Mixed messaging from federal and state officials and patchwork guidance from location to location have also heightened the anxiety for Americans , most of whom remain reluctant to leave their homes .
Another handicap will be the fragility @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by the Trump ’ s pre-pandemic fiscal recklessness .
When the president assumed office in an emerging recovery from the Great Recession , he had a golden opportunity to shore up the nation ’ s fiscal reserves and invest in its economic resilience .
Instead , he pushed through one of the largest corporate tax cuts in history , padding the bank balances of billionaires while miring the rest of the nation in eye-watering levels of debt .
As a consequence , America entered the Covid-19 pandemic already financially crippled .
Now , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ crisis since the Great Depression , it is ill-positioned to aid its citizens , let alone rebuild for the future .
The 2017 tax bill that Trump signed into law permanently slashed the corporate income tax rate from 35 percent to 21 percent—the largest one-time corporate rate reduction ever—and cut individual tax rates as well .
Its projected price tag was a whopping $ 1.5 trillion over 10 years .
At the time , Republicans touted the measure as a bonanza for job growth and worker wages .
Predictably , however , companies @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cuts by creating more jobs .
Instead , they engaged in a record-breaking number of stock buybacks to pump up share prices , while most of the individual tax breaks benefited the nation ’ s wealthiest families .
Corporations bought up as much as $ 1 trillion of their own shares , according to a Congressional Research Service ( CRS ) analysis , while roughly a quarter of the package ’ s tax benefits were enjoyed by the top one percent of households , according to the Tax Policy Center .
Though shareholders @ @ @ @ @ @ @ their windfalls to pay their workers bonuses , despite some highly-publicized pledges to do so .
The only thing the legislation really accomplished was to blow a crater-sized hole in the federal budget , which until then had seen six straight years of declining deficits under President Barack Obama .
By 2019 , the federal budget deficit had ballooned to nearly $ 1 trillion , double the level in 2015 .
Countries with strong balance sheets have more room to borrow in a crisis and more ability to pump huge infusions of stimulus @ @ @ @ @ @ @ less about the burden of debt on future generations , and the politics of more spending are less fraught .
Trump ’ s imprudent stewardship , however , has wholly robbed America of that flexibility .
Now , the nation is plunging into an even vaster chasm of debt to finance its recovery .
Since the passage of the first tranche of coronavirus relief bills , including the CARES Act , the federal budget deficit is projected to reach a whopping 17.9 percent of GDP this year , according to the Congressional Budget @ @ @ @ @ @ @ unmatched since World War II .
Public debt , meanwhile , will exceed the size of the entire economy , according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget ( CRFB ) .
Debts and deficits of this size will hobble the economy in a number of significant ways .
First , interest payments alone , which were already burdensome before the pandemic , will consume a growing share of the nation ’ s capacity for investment and recovery .
As it is , the government spent 8.4 percent of the federal budget @ @ @ @ @ @ @ payments in fiscal 2019 , the CBO says .
It ’ s an amount roughly equal to the federal government ’ s contribution to the Medicaid program that year .
Post-pandemic , interest on the debt will be an even bigger line-item expense .
America ’ s shaky fiscal position also puts it at a disadvantage compared to other more prudent nations .
That could pose real risks in the post-pandemic global order .
Pre-pandemic , government borrowing was a smaller share of the economy in countries like Germany , France , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ United States , according to International Monetary Fund ( IMF ) data , In China , for instance , the government ’ s budget deficit in 2018 was just 4.8 percent of GDP , compared to 80 percent for the United States .
Given their stronger financial reserves , these nations will have more ability to invest in their citizens and in their economies than the U.S. , putting them first out of the gate toward recovery .
America ’ s inevitable reliance on more debt will further mean more reliance on the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ China , to extend us credit .
As much as Trump eschews America ’ s dependence on China , the country has been a primary financier of his fiscal policies and is the second-largest holder of U.S. public debt ( after Japan ) .
Its role as one of America ’ s biggest creditors will only grow , potentially creating yet another leverage point to China ’ s advantage in the post-pandemic world .
Perhaps the most tragic consequence of Trump ’ s profligacy is the squandering of what could have been .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ the emergence of COVID-19 and the havoc it would wreak on the world .
Still , America could have been much better prepared .
Rather than tax cuts for corporations and the very rich , Trump could have pumped more resources into the nation ’ s workforce development and adjustment programs .
That would have been beneficial no matter what , but it would have cushioned the blow of disruption for the more than 36 million Americans now unemployed since mid-March .
He could have restored our infrastructure for public health , so @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ the best testing in the world , ” not just his empty boast to that effect .
He could also have continued to pay down the national debt and built a rainy-day reserve for crises precisely like the one we ’ re facing now .
Instead , Trump and his GOP allies in Congress are currently balking at more relief for the millions of Americans who desperately need it .
Worse yet , their excuse for a “ pause ” are the soaring deficits that they themselves created .
And because he @ @ @ @ @ @ @ investments that could save American lives , Trump is now willing to sacrifice them to restart the economy , resorting to the callous , long-shot strategy of “ herd immunity ” with its potential for thousands – perhaps even millions – of avoidable deaths .
As badly bungled as his pandemic response has been , Trump ’ s pre-pandemic policies and priorities will prove equally destructive .
The result : Whenever the pandemic ends , America ’ s convalescence will be long and slow .

“Vaccine or no vaccine, we’re back,” President Donald Trump said last week as governors nationwide began relaxing the restrictions prompted by Covid-19. Trump has been the nation’s most ardent advocate for restarting the economy, even as most states have so far failed to meet his own administration’s metrics for a safe reopening. And little wonder: Trump is desperate to regain even a vestige of the pre-pandemic economy’s strength in time for the election this fall.
But for all his cheerleading, Trump is unlikely to get the kind of robust rebound he’s hoping for—in large part due to sabotage inflicted by his own policies. Thanks to his administration’s early and ongoing failures to address the coronavirus outbreak, much of the nation still lacks the testing and contact tracing infrastructure necessary to control the virus’s inevitable resurgence. Mixed messaging from federal and state officials and patchwork guidance from location to location have also heightened the anxiety for Americans, most of whom remain reluctant to leave their homes.
Another handicap will be the fragility of the American economy, brought upon by the Trump’s pre-pandemic fiscal recklessness. When the president assumed office in an emerging recovery from the Great Recession, he had a golden opportunity to shore up the nation’s fiscal reserves and invest in its economic resilience. Instead, he pushed through one of the largest corporate tax cuts in history, padding the bank balances of billionaires while miring the rest of the nation in eye-watering levels of debt. As a consequence, America entered the Covid-19 pandemic already financially crippled. Now, in the face of the greatest economic crisis since the Great Depression, it is ill-positioned to aid its citizens, let alone rebuild for the future.
The 2017 tax bill that Trump signed into law permanently slashed the corporate income tax rate from 35 percent to 21 percent—the largest one-time corporate rate reduction ever—and cut individual tax rates as well. Its projected price tag was a whopping $1.5 trillion over 10 years.
At the time, Republicans touted the measure as a bonanza for job growth and worker wages. Predictably, however, companies didn’t respond to the tax cuts by creating more jobs. Instead, they engaged in a record-breaking number of stock buybacks to pump up share prices, while most of the individual tax breaks benefited the nation’s wealthiest families. Corporations bought up as much as $1 trillion of their own shares, according to a Congressional Research Service (CRS) analysis, while roughly a quarter of the package’s tax benefits were enjoyed by the top one percent of households, according to the Tax Policy Center. Though shareholders and CEOs prospered, few corporations used their windfalls to pay their workers bonuses, despite some highly-publicized pledges to do so.
The only thing the legislation really accomplished was to blow a crater-sized hole in the federal budget, which until then had seen six straight years of declining deficits under President Barack Obama. By 2019, the federal budget deficit had ballooned to nearly $1 trillion, double the level in 2015.
Countries with strong balance sheets have more room to borrow in a crisis and more ability to pump huge infusions of stimulus into their economies. They can worry less about the burden of debt on future generations, and the politics of more spending are less fraught. Trump’s imprudent stewardship, however, has wholly robbed America of that flexibility.
Now, the nation is plunging into an even vaster chasm of debt to finance its recovery. Since the passage of the first tranche of coronavirus relief bills, including the CARES Act, the federal budget deficit is projected to reach a whopping 17.9 percent of GDP this year, according to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), a level unmatched since World War II. Public debt, meanwhile, will exceed the size of the entire economy, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB).
Debts and deficits of this size will hobble the economy in a number of significant ways. First, interest payments alone, which were already burdensome before the pandemic, will consume a growing share of the nation’s capacity for investment and recovery. As it is, the government spent 8.4 percent of the federal budget ($376 billion) on interest payments in fiscal 2019, the CBO says. It’s an amount roughly equal to the federal government’s contribution to the Medicaid program that year. Post-pandemic, interest on the debt will be an even bigger line-item expense.
America’s shaky fiscal position also puts it at a disadvantage compared to other more prudent nations. That could pose real risks in the post-pandemic global order. Pre-pandemic, government borrowing was a smaller share of the economy in countries like Germany, France, the United Kingdom and China than in the United States, according to International Monetary Fund (IMF) data, In China, for instance, the government’s budget deficit in 2018 was just 4.8 percent of GDP, compared to 80 percent for the United States. Given their stronger financial reserves, these nations will have more ability to invest in their citizens and in their economies than the U.S., putting them first out of the gate toward recovery.
America’s inevitable reliance on more debt will further mean more reliance on the largesse of other nations, such as China, to extend us credit. As much as Trump eschews America’s dependence on China, the country has been a primary financier of his fiscal policies and is the second-largest holder of U.S. public debt (after Japan). Its role as one of America’s biggest creditors will only grow, potentially creating yet another leverage point to China’s advantage in the post-pandemic world.
Perhaps the most tragic consequence of Trump’s profligacy is the squandering of what could have been. True, no one could have predicted the emergence of COVID-19 and the havoc it would wreak on the world. Still, America could have been much better prepared.
Rather than tax cuts for corporations and the very rich, Trump could have pumped more resources into the nation’s workforce development and adjustment programs. That would have been beneficial no matter what, but it would have cushioned the blow of disruption for the more than 36 million Americans now unemployed since mid-March. He could have restored our infrastructure for public health, so that the nation could in fact have “the best testing in the world,” not just his empty boast to that effect. He could also have continued to pay down the national debt and built a rainy-day reserve for crises precisely like the one we’re facing now.
Instead, Trump and his GOP allies in Congress are currently balking at more relief for the millions of Americans who desperately need it. Worse yet, their excuse for a “pause” are the soaring deficits that they themselves created. And because he hasn’t made the kind of investments that could save American lives, Trump is now willing to sacrifice them to restart the economy, resorting to the callous, long-shot strategy of “herd immunity” with its potential for thousands – perhaps even millions – of avoidable deaths.
As badly bungled as his pandemic response has been, Trump’s pre-pandemic policies and priorities will prove equally destructive. The result: Whenever the pandemic ends, America’s convalescence will be long and slow.


washingtonmonthly--2020-05-25--Are White Working Class Folks Tiring of Trump’s Act?

Tom Nichols of The Atlantic has a simple question : …I have been baffled by one mystery in particular : Why do working-class white men—the most reliable component of Donald Trump ’ s base—support someone who is , by their own standards , the least masculine man ever to hold the modern presidency ?
The question is not whether Trump fails to meet some archaic or idealized version of masculinity .
The president ’ s inability to measure up to Marcus Aurelius or Omar Bradley is not the issue .
Rather , the question is why so many of Trump @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to hold Trump to their own standards of masculinity—why they support a man who behaves more like a little boy .
I believe there actually is a simple answer .
For Nichols , he ’ s perplexed because the working class men he grew up around would generally look down on a person like Trump .
They don ’ t easily show their emotions and they don ’ t brag about their sexual exploits .
Their word is their bond , and a handshake means something .
Working hard without a lot of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ there ’ s always some griping .
Trump exemplifies none of these ideals , but he ’ s able to accomplish something else that these men value .
And the reason he can do it is because he has the one thing they definitionally lack–power .
Nichol eventually gets around to this explanation when he says , “ I think that working men , the kind raised as I was , know what kind of “ man ” Trump is .
And still , the gratification they get from seeing Trump enrage the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ earn their indulgence.
” Ordinarily , a man who complains about how he has been treated is demonstrating weakness , and the same is true of someone who always tries to pass the buck .
Someone who brags about his accomplishments is considered annoying and insecure , and even more so even they take credit for others ’ work or exaggerate their own role .
But Trump does these things from the White House as the commander-in-chief of the most fearsome armed forces assembled in the history of man .
When he lashes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s not doing it as some ineffectual worker bee who can be squashed by his employer .
This makes all the difference .
For months during the 2015-2016 Republican primaries , Trump most effective campaigning tactic was to dismiss every criticism by pointing people to the polls , which showed him in the lead .
If people questioned his expertise , he said “ I ’ m rich , I ’ m famous , I ’ ve slept with a lot of beautiful women.
” These boasts were true enough , and they @ @ @ @ @ @ @ might try to elevate himself over his peers .
The most important thing that Trump does to win working class support is pick the correct enemies .
He insults the people who make working class folks feel inadequate , or who at least seem to lightly regard their virtues .
He also picks at the things that make white working class folks uncomfortable , which most definitely includes the increasing diversification of the country .
And , finally , Trump may play the victim in a very unmasculine way , but stoicism is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ reality .
Working class folks , with plenty of justification , feel like they ’ ve been getting screwed for decades .
Trump gives voice to that , including in the realm of so-called “ religious freedom.
” Some people have tried to argue that Trump ’ s support is rooted in male sexual insecurity , but that ’ s too narrow .
It ’ s rooted in insecurity in general .
People have enough to worry about with their jobs being outsourced that we don ’ t need to ask how many @ @ @ @ @ @ @ dysfunction .
Above all , Trump is a spectacle .
He ’ s entertainment .
And his show is almost entirely dedicated to insulting people who have either flourished while the working class has foundered , or who seem to look down on religious folks who work with their hands for a living .
Trump goes after the cultural enemies of the white working class , and he actually makes them suffer .
He ’ s not ineffectual , and so many people get a visceral thrill out of his performance .
There @ @ @ @ @ @ @ working class men and women who see right through Trump and dislike him for all the reasons that Nichols believe they should dislike him .
But they ’ re a minority .
Yet , they could be a majority before long .
One key to Trump ’ s political success is that he doesn ’ t create negative consequences for his base .
But that ’ s no longer true with 40 million Americans out of work .
Suddenly , Trump ’ s act isn ’ t so funny , and more people @ @ @ @ @ @ @ run America like a reality show .

Tom Nichols of The Atlantic has a simple question:
…I have been baffled by one mystery in particular: Why do working-class white men—the most reliable component of Donald Trump’s base—support someone who is, by their own standards, the least masculine man ever to hold the modern presidency? The question is not whether Trump fails to meet some archaic or idealized version of masculinity. The president’s inability to measure up to Marcus Aurelius or Omar Bradley is not the issue. Rather, the question is why so many of Trump’s working-class white male voters refuse to hold Trump to their own standards of masculinity—why they support a man who behaves more like a little boy.
I believe there actually is a simple answer.
For Nichols, he’s perplexed because the working class men he grew up around would generally look down on a person like Trump. They don’t easily show their emotions and they don’t brag about their sexual exploits. Their word is their bond, and a handshake means something. Working hard without a lot of complaint is considered virtuous even if individually there’s always some griping.
Trump exemplifies none of these ideals, but he’s able to accomplish something else that these men value. And the reason he can do it is because he has the one thing they definitionally lack–power.
Nichols eventually gets around to this explanation when he says, “I think that working men, the kind raised as I was, know what kind of “man” Trump is. And still, the gratification they get from seeing Trump enrage the rest of the country is enough to earn their indulgence.”
Ordinarily, a man who complains about how he has been treated is demonstrating weakness, and the same is true of someone who always tries to pass the buck. Someone who brags about his accomplishments is considered annoying and insecure, and even more so if they take credit for others’ work or exaggerate their own role. But Trump does these things from the White House as the commander-in-chief of the most fearsome armed forces assembled in the history of man. When he lashes out at his enemies, he’s not doing it as some ineffectual worker bee who can be squashed by his employer. This makes all the difference.
For months during the 2015-2016 Republican primaries, Trump’s most effective campaigning tactic was to dismiss every criticism by pointing people to the polls, which showed him in the lead. If people questioned his expertise, he said “I’m rich, I’m famous, I’ve slept with a lot of beautiful women.” These boasts were true enough, and they separated him from the average Joe who might try to elevate himself over his peers.
The most important thing that Trump does to win working class support is pick the correct enemies. He insults the people who make working class folks feel inadequate, or who at least seem to lightly regard their virtues. He also picks at the things that make white working class folks uncomfortable, which most definitely includes the increasing diversification of the country.
And, finally, Trump may play the victim in a very unmasculine way, but stoicism is much more of an ideal than a reality. Working class folks, with plenty of justification, feel like they’ve been getting screwed for decades. Trump gives voice to that, including in the realm of so-called “religious freedom.”
Some people have tried to argue that Trump’s support is rooted in male sexual insecurity, but that’s too narrow. It’s rooted in insecurity in general. People have enough to worry about with their jobs being outsourced that we don’t need to ask how many of them have been googling about erectile dysfunction.
Above all, Trump is a spectacle. He’s entertainment. And his show is almost entirely dedicated to insulting people who have either flourished while the working class has foundered, or who seem to look down on religious folks who work with their hands for a living. Trump goes after the cultural enemies of the white working class, and he actually makes them suffer. He’s not ineffectual, and so many people get a visceral thrill out of his performance.
There are still tens of millions of white working class men and women who see right through Trump and dislike him for all the reasons that Nichols believe they should dislike him. But they’re a minority.
Yet, they could be a majority before long. One key to Trump’s political success is that he doesn’t create negative consequences for his base. But that’s no longer true with 40 million Americans out of work. Suddenly, Trump’s act isn’t so funny, and more people understand directly that you can’t run America like a reality show.