Graham Crackers

On Sunday , sheriff ’ s deputies in Alamance County , North Carolina , brutally dispersed a legal march to the early voting site in the town of Graham .
A number of marchers were on their way to cast their votes ; they were gassed and jailed for their pains .
Video posted to social media shows a woman using a mobility chair suffering a seizure as officers in tactical gear pepper-sprayed the area .
Because it is 2020 , my first thought was , How long will it be before one of these deputies sues that woman for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ?
Here ’ s the connection .
The day after the police riot in Alamance , on Monday , the Supreme Court vacated a lower court opinion called Mckesson v. Doe .
That case asked whether police officers could sue protest leaders if someone else at a protest turns violent—even if the leader did not instigate , call for , or plan the violence .
The Fifth Circuit had held , repeatedly and grotesquely , that they can .
The high court ’ s order means that , for now , that wretched @ @ @ @ @ @ @ could have put a stake in its heart , and it chose not to .
That ought to concern us all .
The Fifth Circuit ’ s precedent meant that a citizen who organizes a peaceful protest can be bankrupted if someone unknown ( perhaps a Boogaloo Boi , and indeed perhaps an undercover cop ) hits an officer with a brick or sets a building on fire .
If that becomes the law , then peaceful protest in the United States is on life support .
The Fifth Circuit has bungled this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ( now voided ) was a severe threat to free assembly and protest in the entire Fifth Circuit—the states of Louisiana , Mississippi , and Texas .
It could also have offered a pathway for the newly Trumpified federal bench elsewhere to close down Black Lives Matter and other pesky left-wing protests without all the fuss of prosecution .
I feel about this case roughly the way Captain Ahab felt about Moby Dick .
( My previous writings , which begin with a dull roar and ascend through shrill whine , are to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and here . )
The reason is exemplified by what happened in Alamance County , N.C. , on Sunday : a police assault on a peaceful march by voters to the polling place .
If the footage looks like Selma , 1965 , it ’ s because there are towns all over the South ( and elsewhere ) where powerful white elites have not given up the hope of maintaining complete control .
If the struggle hasn ’ t changed , neither have the tactics .
Suing protesters was a stratagem used @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Movement to threaten and bankrupt Black leaders .
The Supreme Court shut the door on the tactic in a 1982 case called NAACP v. Claiborne Hardware .
In that case , civil rights leaders had called for a boycott of white-owned stores in Port Gibson , Mississippi .
( Just to underline the historical connections , the boycott was sparked by the police killing of a local Black man . )
Over time , some of the participants threatened other Black residents with harm if they shopped in the boycotted stores ; they @ @ @ @ @ @ @ merchants sued the NAACP and its local leader , Charles Evers ( brother of the murdered Medgar Evers ) for damages , on the basis that the boycott was unlawful and violent .
The Supreme Court , noting that an important First Amendment principle was at stake , would have none of it : by a vote of 8-0 , it held that unless the defendants “ authorized , directed , or ratified specific tortious activity , ” explicitly “ incited ” violence , or ordered others to carry out violent acts , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ who carry out violent acts , of course , can be arrested or sued ; but there couldn ’ t be liability by association .
There matters stood until the advent of legendary fringe lawyer Larry Klayman .
Klayman ’ s record is too extensive to cite , but he has brought lawsuits against Hillary Clinton ( Benghazi ) , Barack Obama ( Kenya , you know ) ; CNN ( speaking ill of Klayman ) , the Chinese government ( coronavirus ) and—well–his own mother ( grandmother ’ s medical expenses ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the entire # blacklivesmatter hashtag and also individual leaders of BLM protests .
That idea was taken up by lawyers for “ Officer Doe , ” an unnamed Baton Rouge police officer .
Doe was injured by a thrown object during a 2016 protest in front of the Baton Rouge police department ; protesters had taken to the street after BRPD officers shot a Black man named Alton Sterling .
DeRay Mckesson , who is a peripatetic organizer and speaker on BLM topics , was present .
There ’ s no evidence that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ urged anyone else to .
Nonetheless , because someone threw an object and injured “ Officer Doe , ” the officer sued Mckesson .
A federal district judge , citing Claiborne Hardware , dismissed the case .
Doe appealed .
At this point , the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals screwed the case up beyond recognition .
That court was already aggressively conservative in 2017 ; with the addition of six Trump appointees , it has now become effectively a law-free zone .
Without hearing argument , a three-judge panel decided that First @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Mckesson .
Mckesson asked for rehearing en banc ; instead , the same panel decided it agreed with itself .
The outcry grew , however , and soon one of the Trump appointees , Don Willett of Texas , issued a new opinion dissenting from the panel ’ s decision on First Amendment grounds ; finally , the full Fifth Circuit ( again without even notifying anyone ) considered yet another re-hearing and deadlocked 8-8 .
Thus , the panel ’ s latest decision stood .
That meant DeRay Mckesson would face trial @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ negligently ” protesting—meaning he should have controlled every person present .
The precedent is chilling .
“ Negligent protest , ” so far , has not a thing in the United States .
Mckesson ’ s lawyers from the ACLU petitioned the Supreme Court to hear the case .
On Monday , the Court issued what is called a “ GVR ” —meaning it 1 ) granted review , 2 ) immediately vacated the lower court opinion , and 3 ) remanded the case to the Fifth Circuit .
But there was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Amendment .
Instead , the unsigned opinion faulted the Fifth Circuit by noting that Louisiana tort law may not permit Doe ’ s lawsuit , First Amendment or no .
To avoid deciding a case with only a “ hypothetical ” First Amendment issue , the Supreme Court sent the case back down to the Fifth Circuit .
And it told the lower court to “ certify ” the state law tort issue—can an officer sue a protest organizer for “ negligent ” protest ?
– to the Louisiana Supreme Court .
If @ @ @ @ @ @ @ First Amendment question is moot .
That order means that , instead of being thrown out , the case could come back .
Vera Edelman , an ACLU staff attorney , pointed to language in the Supreme Court opinion citing Claiborne Hardware and commented , “ We are gratified the Supreme Court has recognized there are important First Amendment issues at stake.
” One of the unsettled questions is whether Louisiana law ever allows a police officer to sue members of the public for on-the-job injuries .
Timothy Zick , a professor at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , also said he was “ heartened ” by that language .
But he warned that the idea of suing protest organizers “ will probably resurface ” and “ a case involving a non-law enforcement plaintiff might avoid the tort complications present here.
” Officer Doe ’ s lawyer , Donna Grobner , said in an email : “ The decision signifies that the Fifth Circuit got it right.
” She expressed optimism that the Louisiana court would resolve the state law issue in Doe ’ s favor .
In Monday ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ way out .
That may mean there is resistance inside the Court to reaffirming Claiborne Hardware ’ s defense of free assembly .
Justice Clarence Thomas dissented even from this mild tort-law-oriented decision .
That is yet another signal that venerable First Amendment precedents may be destabilized by the lightning conservative takeover of the Court .
Even before the Supreme Court was Trumpified , the conservative majority for two decades had been carefully constructing the First Amendment ’ s protections for millionaires and eroding them for anyone else .
“ Independent expenditures ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Roberts Court precedent ) are weapons of the rich ; street protest , guaranteed specifically in the First Amendment ’ s text as “ peaceable assembly , ” is the tactic of ordinary citizens .
Of course , the police have weapons of their own .
The people of Alamance County learned that to their cost yesterday when some of them tried to vote and were met with guns , shields , pepper spray , tear gas , and other “ less-lethal ” weapons .
Imagine now how much courage it would take @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Department if demonstrators also knew that the officers who gas and beat them could also sue them afterwards .

On Sunday, sheriff’s deputies in Alamance County, North Carolina, brutally dispersed a legal march to the early voting site in the town of Graham. A number of marchers were on their way to cast their votes; they were gassed and jailed for their pains.
Video posted to social media shows a woman using a mobility chair suffering a seizure as officers in tactical gear pepper-sprayed the area.
Because it is 2020, my first thought was, How long will it be before one of these deputies sues that woman for his emotional distress at her ill-mannered seizure?
Here’s the connection. The day after the police riot in Alamance, on Monday, the Supreme Court vacated a lower court opinion called Mckesson v. Doe. That case asked whether police officers could sue protest leaders if someone else at a protest turns violent—even if the leader did not instigate, call for, or plan the violence. The Fifth Circuit had held, repeatedly and grotesquely, that they can. The high court’s order means that, for now, that wretched precedent is dead. But the Court could have put a stake in its heart, and it chose not to. That ought to concern us all.
The Fifth Circuit’s precedent meant that a citizen who organizes a peaceful protest can be bankrupted if someone unknown (perhaps a Boogaloo Boi, and indeed perhaps an undercover cop) hits an officer with a brick or sets a building on fire. If that becomes the law, then peaceful protest in the United States is on life support.
The Fifth Circuit has bungled this case four times. The resulting precedent (now voided) was a severe threat to free assembly and protest in the entire Fifth Circuit—the states of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Texas. It could also have offered a pathway for the newly Trumpified federal bench elsewhere to close down Black Lives Matter and other pesky left-wing protests without all the fuss of prosecution.
I feel about this case roughly the way Captain Ahab felt about Moby Dick. (My previous writings, which begin with a dull roar and ascend through shrill whine, are to be found here, here, here, and here.) The reason is exemplified by what happened in Alamance County, N.C., on Sunday: a police assault on a peaceful march by voters to the polling place. If the footage looks like Selma, 1965, it’s because there are towns all over the South (and elsewhere) where powerful white elites have not given up the hope of maintaining complete control.
If the struggle hasn’t changed, neither have the tactics. Suing protesters was a stratagem used by white officials during the Civil Rights Movement to threaten and bankrupt Black leaders. The Supreme Court shut the door on the tactic in a 1982 case called NAACP v. Claiborne Hardware. In that case, civil rights leaders had called for a boycott of white-owned stores in Port Gibson, Mississippi. (Just to underline the historical connections, the boycott was sparked by the police killing of a local Black man.) Over time, some of the participants threatened other Black residents with harm if they shopped in the boycotted stores; they also committed acts of vandalism. The merchants sued the NAACP and its local leader, Charles Evers (brother of the murdered Medgar Evers) for damages, on the basis that the boycott was unlawful and violent. The Supreme Court, noting that an important First Amendment principle was at stake, would have none of it: by a vote of 8-0, it held that unless the defendants “authorized, directed, or ratified specific tortious activity,” explicitly “incited” violence, or ordered others to carry out violent acts, there could be no liability. Those who carry out violent acts, of course, can be arrested or sued; but there couldn’t be liability by association.
There matters stood until the advent of legendary fringe lawyer Larry Klayman. Klayman’s record is too extensive to cite, but he has brought lawsuits against Hillary Clinton (Benghazi), Barack Obama (Kenya, you know); CNN (speaking ill of Klayman), the Chinese government (coronavirus) and—well–his own mother (grandmother’s medical expenses). Klayman originated the idea of suing the entire #blacklivesmatter hashtag and also individual leaders of BLM protests. That idea was taken up by lawyers for “Officer Doe,” an unnamed Baton Rouge police officer. Doe was injured by a thrown object during a 2016 protest in front of the Baton Rouge police department; protesters had taken to the street after BRPD officers shot a Black man named Alton Sterling. DeRay Mckesson, who is a peripatetic organizer and speaker on BLM topics, was present. There’s no evidence that he engaged in violent acts himself or urged anyone else to. Nonetheless, because someone threw an object and injured “Officer Doe,” the officer sued Mckesson. A federal district judge, citing Claiborne Hardware, dismissed the case. Doe appealed.
At this point, the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals screwed the case up beyond recognition. That court was already aggressively conservative in 2017; with the addition of six Trump appointees, it has now become effectively a law-free zone. Without hearing argument, a three-judge panel decided that First Amendment or not, Doe could sue Mckesson. Mckesson asked for rehearing en banc; instead, the same panel decided it agreed with itself. The outcry grew, however, and soon one of the Trump appointees, Don Willett of Texas, issued a new opinion dissenting from the panel’s decision on First Amendment grounds; finally, the full Fifth Circuit (again without even notifying anyone) considered yet another re-hearing and deadlocked 8-8. Thus, the panel’s latest decision stood.
That meant DeRay Mckesson would face trial, and potentially ruinous damages, for “negligently” protesting—meaning he should have controlled every person present. The precedent is chilling. “Negligent protest,” so far, has not a thing in the United States.
Mckesson’s lawyers from the ACLU petitioned the Supreme Court to hear the case. On Monday, the Court issued what is called a “GVR”—meaning it 1) granted review, 2) immediately vacated the lower court opinion, and 3) remanded the case to the Fifth Circuit.
But there was only a semi-ringing endorsement of the Fifth Amendment. Instead, the unsigned opinion faulted the Fifth Circuit by noting that Louisiana tort law may not permit Doe’s lawsuit, First Amendment or no. To avoid deciding a case with only a “hypothetical” First Amendment issue, the Supreme Court sent the case back down to the Fifth Circuit. And it told the lower court to “certify” the state law tort issue—can an officer sue a protest organizer for “negligent” protest?– to the Louisiana Supreme Court. If the answer is no, then the First Amendment question is moot.
That order means that, instead of being thrown out, the case could come back. Vera Edelman, an ACLU staff attorney, pointed to language in the Supreme Court opinion citing Claiborne Hardware and commented, “We are gratified the Supreme Court has recognized there are important First Amendment issues at stake.” One of the unsettled questions is whether Louisiana law ever allows a police officer to sue members of the public for on-the-job injuries.
Timothy Zick, a professor at the William & Mary School of Law, also said he was “heartened” by that language. But he warned that the idea of suing protest organizers “will probably resurface” and “a case involving a non-law enforcement plaintiff might avoid the tort complications present here.”
Officer Doe’s lawyer, Donna Grobner, said in an email: “The decision signifies that the Fifth Circuit got it right.” She expressed optimism that the Louisiana court would resolve the state law issue in Doe’s favor.
In Monday’s decision, the Court took an easy way out. That may mean there is resistance inside the Court to reaffirming Claiborne Hardware’s defense of free assembly. Justice Clarence Thomas dissented even from this mild tort-law-oriented decision. That is yet another signal that venerable First Amendment precedents may be destabilized by the lightning conservative takeover of the Court.
Even before the Supreme Court was Trumpified, the conservative majority for two decades had been carefully constructing the First Amendment’s protections for millionaires and eroding them for anyone else. “Independent expenditures” and campaign contributions (assiduously protected under Roberts Court precedent) are weapons of the rich; street protest, guaranteed specifically in the First Amendment’s text as “peaceable assembly,” is the tactic of ordinary citizens.
Of course, the police have weapons of their own. The people of Alamance County learned that to their cost yesterday when some of them tried to vote and were met with guns, shields, pepper spray, tear gas, and other “less-lethal” weapons. Imagine now how much courage it would take to face the Alamance Sheriff’s Department if demonstrators also knew that the officers who gas and beat them could also sue them afterwards.


washingtonmonthly--2020-11-03--“A Christmas Carol” — Courtesy of the Chinese Navy

What happens when China decides to dominate the world ’ s semiconductor chip production by taking over democratic Taiwan ?
A look at the not-so-distant Christmas-future… Christmas Eve , 2020—President Trump is still loudly contesting the November election results in courtrooms and the media .
The Electoral College chose Biden-Harris after several red-state electors defected , justified by an overwhelming national popular vote for the Democratic ticket .
The newly elected Democratic Senate is days from taking over , and Mitch McConnell is rushing through last-minute judicial appointments .
McConnell is also busy finalizing legislation giving the Executive sweeping policing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ demonstrations protesting the election outcome .
Growing street confrontations are cited as the reason the outgoing president deployed the National Guard to major cities nationwide .
America is in turmoil and increasingly violent following the deaths of several protestors at the University of California/Berkeley .
The People ’ s Republic of China is monitoring both Fox and CNN , watching the turmoil and feeding the frenzy via its disinformation .
Beijing continues cyber operations , testing , and penetrating corporate and defense networks during this confusing moment .
COVID ’ s second wave @ @ @ @ @ @ @ season ’ s severity – adds new burdens to skeleton staffs at the NSA , CIA , and other national security agencies .
Beijing ’ s Ambassador to Washington sends cables home that suggest this is an opportune moment to make dramatic global moves .
His memo references Jimmy Carter and how the Soviet Union used Christmas 1979 as the perfect moment to invade and occupy Afghanistan .
The ambassador tells the Communist Party leadership that it ’ s time to initiate Operation “ Iceberg ’ s Tip.
” “ Tip ” stands @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The reference to “ Iceberg ” is to help throw off intercepted signals ’ intelligence .
Expeditionary People ’ s Liberation Army Navy ( PLAN ) forces feint towards Antarctica .
But “ Iceberg ” is not aimed at asserting Antarctic claims .
Instead , “ Iceberg ” is how Beijing sees democratic Taiwan – a dangerous and independent floating hazard that has broken off from the mainland and threatens the PRC ’ s ship of state .
An impatient Chairman Xi Jinping and a distracted America have set the stage for Beijing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ invasion plan .
The world immediately denounces the move , but many nations remorsefully admit that they have long abandoned the Republic of China – aka Taiwan – diplomatically .
Multiple nations shuttered their Taipei embassies for the PRC ’ s economic favor and , in the process , recognized Beijing ’ s historical claims and long-term unification ambitions .
Global dependence on trade and nations ’ financial interdependence with the PRC temper international responses and dampen outrage in the United Nations .
Even nations that once loudly objected to Russia ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the PRC .
Beijing plays up its geographic and cultural ties to Taiwan .
The PRC claims that Taipei ’ s autonomy is a clear and present threat to the mainland .
That argument gained popular traction after America supplied Taiwan with new weapons systems .
Further , high-level official U.S. visits catalyzed aggressive PLAN military exercises in the Taiwan Strait .
From Xi Jinping ’ s nationalist perspective , ongoing U.S. freedom of navigation operations in the South China Sea sparked his Taiwan invasion .
On this night before Christmas , America @ @ @ @ @ @ @ unable to act .
America ’ s domestic turmoil prevents her from taking decisive action , especially since every Taiwan Strait war game shows devastating losses .
American costs would be intolerably high with sunk ships , picked-off warplanes , and dead soldiers .
Sixty years after John F. Kennedy and Richard Nixon vowed to defend two tiny Taiwanese islands against mainland aggression , neither American political party is eager to risk war .
After a costly , near twenty-year Middle Eastern war , Americans are tired of foreign adventures .
Washington allows @ @ @ @ @ @ @ accepts imposed global sanctions , knowing it can easily absorb international condemnation as it did after the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre .
Beijing ’ s leadership simply sees the world ’ s punitive reaction as the cost of doing business .
Interestingly , for all the talk about culture , history , unification , and fraternal unity , the invasion was really spurred on by one strategic goal : the immediate and total appropriation of most of the world ’ s capacity to produce semiconductor computer chips .
Geopolitics and processing power are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cut off chips to the People ’ s Republic , undermining Huawei and starving Beijing ’ s AI and quantum computing ambitions .
Taking over Taiwan gives the PRC over half the world ’ s chip manufacturing .
It offers Beijing dominance over the world ’ s digital lifeblood – the chips that power everything from iPhones to supercomputers .
Game over .
Like previous “ Yet to Come ” Christmas tales , the story can change if America heeds the warnings .
A decisive , overwhelmingly clear , and uncontestable 2020 presidential @ @ @ @ @ @ @ world .
American elections appear chaotic .
They need to be seen instead as just really messy , self-correcting , legitimate democratic processes at work .
Show the world elections matter and elections work .
A peaceful transfer of power will allow America to regain a singular voice that declares : We are united at home .
Partisanship stops at the water ’ s edge .
Back off , Beijing .

What happens when China decides to dominate the world’s semiconductor chip production by taking over democratic Taiwan? A look at the not-so-distant Christmas-future…
Christmas Eve, 2020—President Trump is still loudly contesting the November election results in courtrooms and the media. The Electoral College chose Biden-Harris after several red-state electors defected, justified by an overwhelming national popular vote for the Democratic ticket.
The newly elected Democratic Senate is days from taking over, and Mitch McConnell is rushing through last-minute judicial appointments. McConnell is also busy finalizing legislation giving the Executive sweeping policing powers in the face of daily national demonstrations protesting the election outcome. Growing street confrontations are cited as the reason the outgoing president deployed the National Guard to major cities nationwide.
America is in turmoil and increasingly violent following the deaths of several protestors at the University of California/Berkeley.
The People’s Republic of China is monitoring both Fox and CNN, watching the turmoil and feeding the frenzy via its disinformation. Beijing continues cyber operations, testing, and penetrating corporate and defense networks during this confusing moment. COVID’s second wave – a tsunami thanks to the flu season’s severity – adds new burdens to skeleton staffs at the NSA, CIA, and other national security agencies.
Beijing’s Ambassador to Washington sends cables home that suggest this is an opportune moment to make dramatic global moves. His memo references Jimmy Carter and how the Soviet Union used Christmas 1979 as the perfect moment to invade and occupy Afghanistan. The ambassador tells the Communist Party leadership that it’s time to initiate Operation “Iceberg’s Tip.”
“Tip” stands for the “Taiwan invasion plan.” The reference to “Iceberg” is to help throw off intercepted signals’ intelligence. Expeditionary People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) forces feint towards Antarctica. But “Iceberg” is not aimed at asserting Antarctic claims. Instead, “Iceberg” is how Beijing sees democratic Taiwan – a dangerous and independent floating hazard that has broken off from the mainland and threatens the PRC’s ship of state.
An impatient Chairman Xi Jinping and a distracted America have set the stage for Beijing. The PRC implements its titanic Taiwan invasion plan.
The world immediately denounces the move, but many nations remorsefully admit that they have long abandoned the Republic of China – aka Taiwan – diplomatically. Multiple nations shuttered their Taipei embassies for the PRC’s economic favor and, in the process, recognized Beijing’s historical claims and long-term unification ambitions.
Global dependence on trade and nations’ financial interdependence with the PRC temper international responses and dampen outrage in the United Nations. Even nations that once loudly objected to Russia’s Crimean incursion rationalize their milder stance towards the PRC.
Beijing plays up its geographic and cultural ties to Taiwan. The PRC claims that Taipei’s autonomy is a clear and present threat to the mainland. That argument gained popular traction after America supplied Taiwan with new weapons systems. Further, high-level official U.S. visits catalyzed aggressive PLAN military exercises in the Taiwan Strait. From Xi Jinping’s nationalist perspective, ongoing U.S. freedom of navigation operations in the South China Sea sparked his Taiwan invasion.
On this night before Christmas, America is domestically paralyzed, uncertain, and unable to act. America’s domestic turmoil prevents her from taking decisive action, especially since every Taiwan Strait war game shows devastating losses. American costs would be intolerably high with sunk ships, picked-off warplanes, and dead soldiers. Sixty years after John F. Kennedy and Richard Nixon vowed to defend two tiny Taiwanese islands against mainland aggression, neither American political party is eager to risk war. After a costly, near twenty-year Middle Eastern war, Americans are tired of foreign adventures. Washington allows Taiwan to be absorbed.
The PRC accepts imposed global sanctions, knowing it can easily absorb international condemnation as it did after the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre. Beijing’s leadership simply sees the world’s punitive reaction as the cost of doing business.
Interestingly, for all the talk about culture, history, unification, and fraternal unity, the invasion was really spurred on by one strategic goal: the immediate and total appropriation of most of the world’s capacity to produce semiconductor computer chips. Geopolitics and processing power are directly related, and America had recently cut off chips to the People’s Republic, undermining Huawei and starving Beijing’s AI and quantum computing ambitions.
Taking over Taiwan gives the PRC over half the world’s chip manufacturing. It offers Beijing dominance over the world’s digital lifeblood – the chips that power everything from iPhones to supercomputers. Game over.
Or not.
Like previous “Yet to Come” Christmas tales, the story can change if America heeds the warnings.
A decisive, overwhelmingly clear, and uncontestable 2020 presidential election outcome will speak volumes to the world. American elections appear chaotic. They need to be seen instead as just really messy, self-correcting, legitimate democratic processes at work. Show the world elections matter and elections work.
A peaceful transfer of power will allow America to regain a singular voice that declares: We are united at home. Partisanship stops at the water’s edge. Back off, Beijing.


washingtonmonthly--2020-11-05--Trump’s Unexpected Power Helps Republicans Win Even If He Doesn’t

The news is this : Everything has changed and nothing has changed .
In his upset victory four years ago , Donald Trump plowed through the nation ’ s political terrain .
He tapped into deep-seated rage and anguish among a large swath of Americans that the establishment of both parties had failed to recognize , let alone address .
Since then , Trump has changed Washington , not by “ draining the swamp ” as he promised , but by taking over the Republican Party , by turning GOP lawmakers into rubber stamps and squelching or crushing them if @ @ @ @ @ @ @ put up a fight , and the reason became clear this week : Trump is good for them .
Not just for their policy goals , such as cutting taxes and packing federal courts with conservatives , though that is undeniable .
But for the lawmakers themselves .
He is particularly good for those who cling to him .
Take Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina .
Graham harshly criticized Trump – and briefly ran against him — in 2016 .
But the chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee now embraces Trump , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ who had polled strongly in recent weeks .
Likewise , Sen. Thom Tillis once earned Trump ’ s wrath by offering a bill to prevent the administration from firing the special counsel in the Russia investigation .
After that , he cleaved to the president and appears to have survived a close reelection contest in North Carolina .
Republican senators who chided the president , including Jeff Flake of Arizona and Bob Corker of Tennessee , found it easier to leave the chamber than face brutal MAGA-fueled primaries .
Members of Congress who @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Barbara Comstock of Virginia or Carlos Curbelo of Florida , lost their seats in 2018 .
When Trump ’ s name is on the top of the ballot , Republicans down the line do better .
It feels strange to write that sentence since Trump himself might lose the presidency in this nail-biter of an election .
But it remains true that both times he topped the ticket , Republicans down the ballot out-performed expectations .
This year , they appear poised to gain seats in the House – an unwelcome surprise to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ control of the Senate , which few expected .
Compare that to 2018 , when Trump was not running for office and Democrats gained an astounding 40 seats to take control of the House .
And while the party of the incumbent president often sheds congressional seats in midterm elections , the numbers generally are less mind-boggling than they were two years ago .
Throughout 2020 , Democrats had hoped for a “ blue wave ” reminiscent of 2018 , but this time with an even loftier goal : control of the White @ @ @ @ @ @ @ They adhered to the belief that a big turnout , in and of itself , would be good for the people ’ s party .
They also longed to flip some statehouses in time for this decade ’ s redistricting .
That didn ’ t happen .
Currently , Republicans control both chambers in 29 state legislatures , and Democrats control both chambers in 19 .
Minnesota is the only statehouse in which each party controls one chamber , and Nebraska ’ s legislature is nonpartisan .
As of Wednesday afternoon , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ changes were in the offing , and none had been called .
In fact , the conference reported , this year could see the smallest number of changes in legislative control since 1944 , when four chambers switched hands .
Further , partisan control will shift in only one governor ’ s mansion ; Montana elected Republican Greg Gianforte to fill the position vacated by Democrat Steve Bullock , who lost his bid for the Senate .
Gianforte may best be known nationally for slugging a reporter .
So it remains conceivable that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in his party to win – except perhaps himself .
But Trump did something else , too .
He has kept the rage alive .
His cult of personality has generated countless diehards who question nothing their leader says , no matter how divorced from reality .
Conversely , Trump ’ s affronts to tradition , decorum , and , often , civility have enraged others who not only don ’ t understand his appeal but are revolted by it .
The result is that the nation remains at least as divided in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The too-close-to-call election has assured that win or lose , Trump will continue to stoke that division , to demand the spotlight , to foment and employ that rage .
A few weeks ago , many political observers were asking if Trumpism would outlast Trump .
That ’ s not the question anymore .
Trump is going to be a behemoth on the national landscape , inside the White House or out .
The ranks of his supporters , in this year of high turnout , have grown since 2016 .
They stuck @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the turned-down economy .
They are the foot soldiers of Trumpism and are likely to remain so .
Their MAGA hats will not suddenly vanish .
As the ballot counters forged ahead Wednesday afternoon , former Vice President Joe Biden took to the microphones in Delaware and attempted to set a more calibrated tone for the nation he still expected to lead .
“ It ’ s time for us to do what we have always done as Americans – to put the harsh rhetoric of the campaign behind us…To unite , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a nation , ” Biden said .
Earlier Wednesday morning , Trump audaciously tried to declare victory , threatening to ask the Supreme Court to put a stop to vote counting .
His false proclamation – “ Frankly , we did win this election ” – served only to further divide the nation .
The rage had not subsided .
Everything might change .
And nothing .

The news is this: Everything has changed and nothing has changed.
In his upset victory four years ago, Donald Trump plowed through the nation’s political terrain. He tapped into deep-seated rage and anguish among a large swath of Americans that the establishment of both parties had failed to recognize, let alone address.
Since then, Trump has changed Washington, not by “draining the swamp” as he promised, but by taking over the Republican Party, by turning GOP lawmakers into rubber stamps and squelching or crushing them if they didn’t comply.
Few put up a fight, and the reason became clear this week: Trump is good for them. Not just for their policy goals, such as cutting taxes and packing federal courts with conservatives, though that is undeniable. But for the lawmakers themselves.
He is particularly good for those who cling to him. Take Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina. Graham harshly criticized Trump – and briefly ran against him — in 2016. But the chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee now embraces Trump, and Tuesday, he trounced a Democrat who had polled strongly in recent weeks. Likewise, Sen. Thom Tillis once earned Trump’s wrath by offering a bill to prevent the administration from firing the special counsel in the Russia investigation. After that, he cleaved to the president and appears to have survived a close reelection contest in North Carolina. Republican senators who chided the president, including Jeff Flake of Arizona and Bob Corker of Tennessee, found it easier to leave the chamber than face brutal MAGA-fueled primaries. Members of Congress who took shots at Trump, such as Barbara Comstock of Virginia or Carlos Curbelo of Florida, lost their seats in 2018.
When Trump’s name is on the top of the ballot, Republicans down the line do better.
It feels strange to write that sentence since Trump himself might lose the presidency in this nail-biter of an election.
But it remains true that both times he topped the ticket, Republicans down the ballot out-performed expectations. This year, they appear poised to gain seats in the House – an unwelcome surprise to the reigning Democrats – and to retain control of the Senate, which few expected. Compare that to 2018, when Trump was not running for office and Democrats gained an astounding 40 seats to take control of the House. And while the party of the incumbent president often sheds congressional seats in midterm elections, the numbers generally are less mind-boggling than they were two years ago.
Throughout 2020, Democrats had hoped for a “blue wave” reminiscent of 2018, but this time with an even loftier goal: control of the White House and both chambers of Congress. They adhered to the belief that a big turnout, in and of itself, would be good for the people’s party.
They also longed to flip some statehouses in time for this decade’s redistricting. That didn’t happen. Currently, Republicans control both chambers in 29 state legislatures, and Democrats control both chambers in 19. Minnesota is the only statehouse in which each party controls one chamber, and Nebraska’s legislature is nonpartisan. As of Wednesday afternoon, the National Conference of State Legislatures said few changes were in the offing, and none had been called. In fact, the conference reported, this year could see the smallest number of changes in legislative control since 1944, when four chambers switched hands.
Further, partisan control will shift in only one governor’s mansion; Montana elected Republican Greg Gianforte to fill the position vacated by Democrat Steve Bullock, who lost his bid for the Senate. Gianforte may best be known nationally for slugging a reporter.
So it remains conceivable that Trump will have led just about everyone in his party to win – except perhaps himself.
But Trump did something else, too.
He has kept the rage alive. His cult of personality has generated countless diehards who question nothing their leader says, no matter how divorced from reality. Conversely, Trump’s affronts to tradition, decorum, and, often, civility have enraged others who not only don’t understand his appeal but are revolted by it.
The result is that the nation remains at least as divided in 2020 as it was in 2016. The too-close-to-call election has assured that win or lose, Trump will continue to stoke that division, to demand the spotlight, to foment and employ that rage. A few weeks ago, many political observers were asking if Trumpism would outlast Trump. That’s not the question anymore. Trump is going to be a behemoth on the national landscape, inside the White House or out.
The ranks of his supporters, in this year of high turnout, have grown since 2016. They stuck with him through impeachment, the pandemic, the turned-down economy. They are the foot soldiers of Trumpism and are likely to remain so. Their MAGA hats will not suddenly vanish.
As the ballot counters forged ahead Wednesday afternoon, former Vice President Joe Biden took to the microphones in Delaware and attempted to set a more calibrated tone for the nation he still expected to lead.
“It’s time for us to do what we have always done as Americans – to put the harsh rhetoric of the campaign behind us…To unite, to heal, to come together as a nation,” Biden said.
Earlier Wednesday morning, Trump audaciously tried to declare victory, threatening to ask the Supreme Court to put a stop to vote counting. His false proclamation – “Frankly, we did win this election” – served only to further divide the nation. The rage had not subsided.
Everything might change. And nothing.


washingtonmonthly--2020-11-04--Why Didn’t America’s Worst President Lose in a Landslide?

We don ’ t know much about this election beyond the fact that Joe Biden is likely to be declared the winner .
But we know that it wasn ’ t a landslide against a lying , narcissistic bully who is terrified of losing because it probably means that he ’ ll face the criminal charges he ’ s avoided while occupying the White House .
Nevertheless , over 67 million Americans voted for the guy .
While data eventually showed Trump ’ s 2016 win in the Electoral College was fueled by xenophobia , there was at least the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ so-called “ populism ” as a factor .
But none of that materialized once he got into office .
The majority of working Americans disapproved of his tax cuts aimed primarily at the wealthy .
The president never got around to infrastructure , and his trade war left most farmers in a state of uncertainty .
Biden was right when he said that Trump would be “ the first president of the United States to leave office , having fewer jobs in his administration than when he became president.
” To cap that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pandemic that has so far resulted in the death of over 230,000 Americans .
That summarizes Trump ’ s first-term .
What did he promise to do in a second term ?
Nothing .
The GOP didn ’ t even propose a platform , and the only thing the president released was a three-page document full of vague statements—most of which he ’ s been promising to do but never accomplished .
Economic historian Brad DeLong reminded us that in 2020 , there are no more excuses .
What were those 67 million @ @ @ @ @ @ @ In states where Trump won ( some by large margins ) , voters passed referendums mirroring the Democratic platform .
For example , in Florida , they approved a $ 15 minimum wage , while South Dakota voted for legal marijuana .
Also confounding is what Fox News found in their poll of 100,000 voters in the days just before the election : ( 1 ) 71 percent favor changing the healthcare system so that any American can buy into a government-run health care plan if they want to .
( 2 ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the United States illegally should be offered a chance to apply for legal status .
( 3 ) 68 percent favor increased federal spending on green and renewable energy .
( 4 ) 71 percent are against overturning Roe v Wade .
( 5 ) 77 percent say that racism is a serious problem in the U.S. and 72 percent say racism is a serious problem in policing .
Those numbers indicate that the party supporting those positions—the Democrats , of course—should win roughly 70 percent of the vote .
But even @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s margin wasn ’ t that large .
Writers at the New York Times ’ Upshot blog addressed this dilemma in September—specifically on the candidates ’ proposals for dealing with the coronavirus pandemic .
On Twitter , Rev .
Andy Karlson summed it up by writing that , “ If policies made a goddamn ounce of difference , then the president whose failed pandemic response killed hundreds of thousands wouldn ’ t have won a single vote.
” If not based on the issues , how do voters decide which candidate they like @ @ @ @ @ @ @ into play .
Conservative voters hear a daily recitation of how Democrats are evil .
While major news organizations ignored the disinformation campaign about Joe and Hunter Biden in the weeks before the election , it dominated right-wing outlets .
Since Trump supporters had already decided that the former vice president is evil , it didn ’ t take much to convince them that he ’ s also corrupt .
Even when right-wing news outlets talk about issues , they don ’ t offer an honest assessment .
As we saw throughout this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a socialist—even as he was accused of trying to dismantle Medicare and Social Security .
Trump ’ s enablers in the media can say anything—it doesn ’ t have to be logical—because their purpose is not to enlighten or inform .
It is to inflame .
In the coming weeks , we ’ re going to hear a lot of pontificating about what the Biden campaign should or shouldn ’ t have done .
Every nuance of the Democratic Party ’ s strategy will be put under a microscope .
The process will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ perhaps some adjustments need to be made in the future .
But in the end , reporter Zack Beauchamp summarized why this country ’ s worst president didn ’ t suffer a landslide defeat .
We are polarized because one party embraces lies and disinformation , backed up by an array of right-wing news outlets that spread its propaganda .
We ’ re never going to heal the nation as long as that is the case .

We don’t know much about this election beyond the fact that Joe Biden is likely to be declared the winner. But we know that it wasn’t a landslide against a lying, narcissistic bully who is terrified of losing because it probably means that he’ll face the criminal charges he’s avoided while occupying the White House. Nevertheless, over 67 million Americans voted for the guy.
While data eventually showed Trump’s 2016 win in the Electoral College was fueled by xenophobia, there was at least the specter of crediting the president’s so-called “populism” as a factor. But none of that materialized once he got into office. The majority of working Americans disapproved of his tax cuts aimed primarily at the wealthy. The president never got around to infrastructure, and his trade war left most farmers in a state of uncertainty. Biden was right when he said that Trump would be “the first president of the United States to leave office, having fewer jobs in his administration than when he became president.” To cap that off, the president basically ignored a pandemic that has so far resulted in the death of over 230,000 Americans.
That summarizes Trump’s first-term. What did he promise to do in a second term? Nothing. The GOP didn’t even propose a platform, and the only thing the president released was a three-page document full of vague statements—most of which he’s been promising to do but never accomplished.
Economic historian Brad DeLong reminded us that in 2020, there are no more excuses.
What were those 67 million Americans voting for in this election? In states where Trump won (some by large margins), voters passed referendums mirroring the Democratic platform. For example, in Florida, they approved a $15 minimum wage, while South Dakota voted for legal marijuana. Also confounding is what Fox News found in their poll of 100,000 voters in the days just before the election:
(1) 71 percent favor changing the healthcare system so that any American can buy into a government-run health care plan if they want to.
(2) 71 percent think that most immigrants living in the United States illegally should be offered a chance to apply for legal status.
(3) 68 percent favor increased federal spending on green and renewable energy.
(4) 71 percent are against overturning Roe v Wade.
(5) 77 percent say that racism is a serious problem in the U.S. and 72 percent say racism is a serious problem in policing.
Those numbers indicate that the party supporting those positions—the Democrats, of course—should win roughly 70 percent of the vote. But even in deeply blue states, Biden’s margin wasn’t that large.
Writers at the New York Times’ Upshot blog addressed this dilemma in September—specifically on the candidates’ proposals for dealing with the coronavirus pandemic.
Voters appear not to know Mr. Trump’s and Biden’s stances…It’s not just that people don’t know. When people don’t have a sense for party or candidate platforms, they tend to assume that their preferred party or candidate agrees with them on the issues. This phenomenon, which political scientists call projection, appears to be operating here. People’s perceptions appear strongly influenced by which candidate they like.
On Twitter, Rev. Andy Karlson summed it up by writing that, “If policies made a goddamn ounce of difference, then the president whose failed pandemic response killed hundreds of thousands wouldn’t have won a single vote.”
If not based on the issues, how do voters decide which candidate they like? That is where right-wing news comes into play. Conservative voters hear a daily recitation of how Democrats are evil. While major news organizations ignored the disinformation campaign about Joe and Hunter Biden in the weeks before the election, it dominated right-wing outlets. Since Trump supporters had already decided that the former vice president is evil, it didn’t take much to convince them that he’s also corrupt.
Even when right-wing news outlets talk about issues, they don’t offer an honest assessment. As we saw throughout this campaign, Joe Biden was portrayed as a socialist—even as he was accused of trying to dismantle Medicare and Social Security. Trump’s enablers in the media can say anything—it doesn’t have to be logical—because their purpose is not to enlighten or inform. It is to inflame.
In the coming weeks, we’re going to hear a lot of pontificating about what the Biden campaign should or shouldn’t have done. Every nuance of the Democratic Party’s strategy will be put under a microscope. The process will be painful and somewhat divisive. But perhaps some adjustments need to be made in the future.
But in the end, reporter Zack Beauchamp summarized why this country’s worst president didn’t suffer a landslide defeat.
We are polarized because one party embraces lies and disinformation, backed up by an array of right-wing news outlets that spread its propaganda. We’re never going to heal the nation as long as that is the case.


washingtonmonthly--2020-11-04--It’s Too Soon For Election Post-Mortems But Here’s What We Know So Far

As of noon on Wednesday , it ’ s looking probable but not certain that Joe Biden will defeat Donald Trump .
While it ’ s too early to call the race , it ’ s also too early for quick takes about why the election was so close or the polls were so wrong once again .
Biden ’ s lead in the popular vote is likely to widen .
The reason ?
There are tens of millions of votes still to count , and overall , they seem to favor Biden heavily .
For example , in New @ @ @ @ @ @ @ mail ballots and , provided they are postmarked by Nov. 3 and arrive by Nov. 10 , they will count .
Biden is currently carrying the Garden State by a 61-38 percent margin .
A variation on this theme will go on in almost every state , mainly because the U.S. postal service was slow to deliver ballots in state after state .
U.S. District Judge Emmet Sullivan held a hearing today to discuss why the USPS didn ’ t comply with his order to round up undelivered ballots before the close of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Post reports that “ Nearly 7 percent of ballots in U.S .
Postal Service sorting facilities on Tuesday were not processed on time for submission to election officials.
” Some of the votes will never be counted , but many will and they will add to Biden ’ s popular vote total and possibly change the results in closely contested Senate , House , and state and local races .
For example , in Pennsylvania , incumbent Democratic congressmen Conor Lamb and Matt Cartwright are trailing but may prevail once all the mail-in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ true for challenger Eugene DePasquale in the state ’ s Harrisburg-based 10th District .
As more votes roll in , the error we see in the polling will be reduced .
It could even prove critical to determining whether Trump or Biden won Pennsylvania and the handful of other outstanding states such as Nevada , Georgia , and North Carolina .
Over time , Biden ’ s lead will grow , and the apparent polling error will decline .
It will even change some early emerging narratives about the election , like what @ @ @ @ @ @ @ County in Florida .
No doubt , Biden did very poorly there compared to Hillary Clinton , but with as many as 27 percent of absentee ballots not delivered on time , the current margins are distorted .
Even with Biden , likely to win , and Democrats hurting in down-ballot races , not all the votes have not been counted .
A shameful number never will be , but the results won ’ t look as bad in a week as they look today .

As of noon on Wednesday, it’s looking probable but not certain that Joe Biden will defeat Donald Trump. While it’s too early to call the race, it’s also too early for quick takes about why the election was so close or the polls were so wrong once again. Biden’s lead in the popular vote is likely to widen. The reason? There are tens of millions of votes still to count, and overall, they seem to favor Biden heavily.
For example, in New Jersey, all registered voters were sent mail ballots and, provided they are postmarked by Nov. 3 and arrive by Nov. 10, they will count. Biden is currently carrying the Garden State by a 61-38 percent margin. A variation on this theme will go on in almost every state, mainly because the U.S. postal service was slow to deliver ballots in state after state.
U.S. District Judge Emmet Sullivan held a hearing today to discuss why the USPS didn’t comply with his order to round up undelivered ballots before the close of polls on Election Day. The Washington Post reports that “Nearly 7 percent of ballots in U.S. Postal Service sorting facilities on Tuesday were not processed on time for submission to election officials.”
Some of the votes will never be counted, but many will and they will add to Biden’s popular vote total and possibly change the results in closely contested Senate, House, and state and local races.
For example, in Pennsylvania, incumbent Democratic congressmen Conor Lamb and Matt Cartwright are trailing but may prevail once all the mail-in votes are counted. The same is true for challenger Eugene DePasquale in the state’s Harrisburg-based 10th District.
As more votes roll in, the error we see in the polling will be reduced. It could even prove critical to determining whether Trump or Biden won Pennsylvania and the handful of other outstanding states such as Nevada, Georgia, and North Carolina.
Over time, Biden’s lead will grow, and the apparent polling error will decline. It will even change some early emerging narratives about the election, like what went wrong for the Democrats in Miami-Dade County in Florida. No doubt, Biden did very poorly there compared to Hillary Clinton, but with as many as 27 percent of absentee ballots not delivered on time, the current margins are distorted.
Even with Biden, likely to win, and Democrats hurting in down-ballot races, not all the votes have not been counted. A shameful number never will be, but the results won’t look as bad in a week as they look today.


washingtonmonthly--2020-11-04--BIDEN MOVES CLOSER TO VICTORY. GOP LIKELY TO HOLD SENATE. DEMOCRATIC AGENDA DEAD ON ARRIVAL?

By Wednesday night , the presidential race that many thought might be a blowout for Joe Biden seemed headed for a narrower , grinding victory for the Democratic nominee as the U.S. Senate seemed all but certain to remain in Republican hands .
In an unprecedented lie even for him , Donald Trump insisted early on Wednesday morning that the election was over , vote counting should stop , and he would appeal to the Supreme Court to demand as much .
By contrast , on Wednesday afternoon , Biden expressed assurance that he would win : “ I ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , but I do believe when the votes are counted , we will have won.
” Picking up Michigan and Wisconsin , two battleground states put Biden on a short-track to victory .
A look at outstanding ballots still seems to favor the Democratic nominee in the remaining states , such as Pennsylvania and Nevada .
Still , Democrats , shaken by dreams of a White House victory that James Carville predicted would be apparent by 10:00 PM , were beginning to feel some relief as Biden ’ s electoral vote count moved @ @ @ @ @ @ @ On Wednesday , Biden was projected to win in Wisconsin and Michigan .
Pennsylvania , North Carolina , Nevada , and Georgia haven ’ t been called by any of the major news networks .
Georgia remains on a knife ’ s edge as Democrats await a big tranche of Blue-leaning votes from Atlanta and its suburbs .
So far , Trump ’ s efforts to stop the vote-counting has proved hapless even if his authoritarian fulminations grow more shrill .
At 2:00 AM on Wednesday , the president appeared in the East @ @ @ @ @ @ @ venue usually reserved for bestowing medals or press conferences with visiting heads of state .
There , he led an insomniac ’ s political rally and claimed a lead : “ Frankly , we did win this election.
” That was a brazen lie .
Trump ’ s determination to go to the Supreme Court ignored the justices ’ inability to issue a single ruling that would stop balloting nationwide .
( Each state has its own election law . )
Counting ballots past midnight is commonplace in American elections for all offices @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , 2004 , and 2016 no winner had emerged by the stroke of midnight , and even when winners are projected earlier , counting and certification can take days or weeks .
The electoral map largely followed traditional red-blue patterns with three states flipped–Arizona , Michigan , and Wisconsin , from GOP to Democratic , as of Wednesday night .
Tuesday was a rough night for Democrats .
Trump held off a challenge from Biden in Florida , putting the Sunshine State , his adopted home , in the GOP column .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in heavily Hispanic Miami-Dade county , suggesting that the president ’ s charge of “ socialism ” helped sway immigrants who fled Cuba and Venezuela .
Former President Barack Obama was in the state last week campaigning for Biden , but his well-attended car rally wasn ’ t enough to push his wingman over the top .
Ohio appeared tantalizingly close for Democrats early Tuesday evening , as did Texas .
Still , Trump prevailed there , adding to a night of agita for liberals as they realized high-turnout and strength in early @ @ @ @ @ @ @ strength in many key states .
But Democratic hopes began to soar when some news organizations–ironically , Fox News was first–projected that Biden had prevailed in Arizona , making it the first state to flip from Red to Blue .
On Wednesday morning , Wisconsin fell into the Democratic column as more ballots from Milwaukee and Kenosha , the city not the surrounding county .
By the afternoon , Michigan became the third state to flip to Biden .
Trump repeated his 2016 performance by picking up Republican presidential strongholds such as Kentucky @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and Tennessee .
Biden snapped up blue states such as Califonia , Washington , New Jersey , Vermont , Massachusetts , Connecticut , Maryland , and Virginia .
In the Senate , Democrats who were heavily favored to take the chamber are despairing that they ’ ll very likely remain in the minority .
Once considered among the most vulnerable Republicans , Maine ’ s Susan Collins held on to her seat after a strong challenge from Maine House Speaker Sara Gideon .
While Mark Kelly , the former astronaut , knocked @ @ @ @ @ @ @ U.S. Senate seat in Arizona , other paths to Senate control disappeared for Senate Democrats .
Joni Ernst , the Iowa Republican , kept her Senate seat .
Democrats picked up a U.S. Senate seat in Colorado , where former Gov .
John Hickenlooper handily beat incumbent Cory Gardner .
But Democrats lost in South Carolina , where the lavishly funded bid of Jaime Harrison was dashed , and Lindsey Graham won a fourth term .
In Montana , Gov .
Steve Bullock , whom Democrats recruited to run , lost to Steve @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Democrats will need to pick up North Carolina to have any shot of taking the Senate .
Two Georgia Senate races have yet to be determined .
At least one is likely to be settled in a runoff later this month .
On the other , incumbent Sen. David Purdue , a Republican , may be at the 50 percent threshold and avoid a runoff .
Meanwhile , Sen. Gary Peters of Michigan , a one-term Democrat , was locked in a tight race against John James .
Republicans were on track @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , putting an ax to the promising Congressional careers of freshman Democrats elected in the 2018 blue wave .
In New York , Max Rose , a high profile Army veteran , lost his Staten Island-and-Brooklyn district .
Even if Biden prevails , his agenda could be on life support .
The Senate , likely controlled by Mitch McConnell , the GOP leader from Kentucky , puts dreams of liberal reform–an end to the filibuster , statehood for the District of Columbia , and new seats on the Supreme Court–in peril .
Biden @ @ @ @ @ @ @ seemed doomed .
Should Biden win , it ’ s hard to think of another president in the modern era who took office during a crisis with such little strength in Congress .
The anxiety-producing presidential race shows that Americans remain deeply divided as they faced the starkest presidential race since Lyndon Johnson squared off against Barry Goldwater in 1964 .
Biden heads the most progressive Democratic ticket since LBJ ’ s landslide election .
His party ’ s platform touts massive expenditures , like Green New Deal style-investments in alternative energy and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Affordable Care Act , as well as cultural changes like the end of the Hyde Amendment—which prohibits federal funding for Medicaid ( Biden has supported the latter since 1979 ) .
The Democratic Party ’ s platform doesn ’ t fulfill all of the wants of its ascendant left-wing .
Still , there ’ s enough there to keep them happy—for now .
By contrast , the GOP had no platform this year , reflecting the Republican Party ’ s subservience to the president .
The triangulation that Trump hinted at in 2016—echoing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ investing in roads and bridges—never materialized .
The Trump of 2020 is pushing for an end to the payroll tax , which would end Social Security .
Famously and laughably , “ Infrastructure Week ” proved to be a mirage .
Trump is a standard , donor-class Republican with an inhuman face .
His anti-immigrant fervor , disdain for defense alliances , and multilateral trade pacts were a patina on traditional Republican faith in the trinity of tax cuts , conservative judges , and deregulation .
For Trump , the underdog , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ large populations of white working-class voters , including the Great Lakes states .
His 2016 victories in Ohio , Pennsylvania , Wisconsin , and Michigan cut off Hillary Clinton ’ s seemingly inevitable path to victory .
His hold on Florida , Texas , North Carolina , and Georgia doomed her chances in states with growing Hispanic and suburban populations .
Thanks to his Pennsylvania roots—and doubtlessly owing much to his gender , perceived moderation , and maybe his age—Biden proved to be in a much stronger position than Clinton .
His party @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lessons of 2016 and even 2000 when the Green Party bid of Ralph Nader doomed Al Gore .
It ’ s likely Biden ’ s low-key , some say lackadaisical , campaign was brilliant .
One upside for Biden : it kept the focus on Trump , making the election a referendum on the president .
Conversely , Biden ’ s making fewer campaign stops may turn out to have been too cautious .
The mismanagement of Trump ’ s campaign is one for the ages .
Hundreds of millions of dollars ill-spent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ who was only dispatched when it was too late , an inability to master small donor online fundraising—all of it made this campaign the gang that couldn ’ t shoot straight .
In the final days of the race , Trump was forced to jet to California , a state where he stands no chance , to hustle money the old fashioned way—with a pricy fundraiser that ’ s far less efficient than merely collecting dollars online without any waiters or canapés .
Biden was simultaneously the most likely and least likely Democratic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in electoral politics made him well known , and his eight-years as Barack Obama ’ s wingman transformed him from a Senate lifer into presidential timber .
But his age—he turns 78 this month—was always a looming burden , and his long history in the U.S. Senate is both a bragging right and an albatross .
When Biden was sworn into the Senate in 1973 , just days after his wife and daughter were killed in a car accident , the chamber had deep roots in the past .
Three World War I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ multiple former segregationist Senators who chaired powerful committees , forcing him to work them and charm them alongside other young liberals .
Ted Kennedy , who came to the Senate in 1962 , ten years earlier , had the same work-with-segregationists history when he ran for president in 1980 .
Still , the Democratic Party of that year didn ’ t hold it against him , perhaps because he was a Kennedy .
Biden got no such break this year .
When Kamala Harris whacked him on school busing to achieve racial desegregation @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the long game .
He didn ’ t jerk too far to the left during the primaries .
He didn ’ t embrace single-payer health care , even while he jettisoned pro-corporate stances on bankruptcy reform and antitrust that unsettled the many financial institutions that make Delaware home .
His long cultivation of Black voters—Delaware is the state with the ninth largest Black population , he often noted—and his unswerving loyalty to a younger Black president made him ripe for the endorsement of James Clyburn in South Carolina .
The powerful House Democratic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Black voters ’ ready enthusiasm to push Biden to a resounding victory over minority candidates like Cory Booker or the party ’ s left stalwarts , Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders .
The party gathered around Biden quickly ; endorsements from rivals such as Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar poured in .
The moment of Sanders ’ s inevitability proved very short , snatched by the Black voters in the state that launched the Civil War .
Warren faltered quickly , coming in third in her home state .
Trump ’ s Republican @ @ @ @ @ @ @ He never faced a serious primary challenge .
Those who put up a fight with the president like Republican Senators Bob Corker and Jeff Flake walked away rather than facing uphill battles in primaries dominated by MAGA devotees .
The president could have used his unified party to reset his unpopular presidency , returning to infrastructure or easing back on the constant Twitter invectives .
But he didn ’ t .
And that was before the pandemic .
Perhaps the gravest national crisis in 100 years or at least since World War II @ @ @ @ @ @ @ been Trump ’ s lifeline .
But a negligent response sent the death toll higher than it should ever have been .
He turned mask-wearing into a political statement instead of a prophylactic .
His blathering made him seem more idiotic than Churchillian .
His continued self-indulgence amidst death—complaining about not getting a fair shake from Fox News of all places—made him seem , if not AWOL from the pandemic fight , then like he was cosseting the enemy .
Even his illness , which might have provided a moment to right his @ @ @ @ @ @ @ op .
Still , the fact that he remains an underdog with a chance is testimony to his grip on rural America , traditional Republicans , and white-working-class men .
In Harris and Mike Pence , each man has found a running mate that matches their party perfectly .
The California senator represents the Democrats ’ diversity , with her Jamaican and Indian ancestry , Jewish husband , and Jewish stepchildren .
Hailing from the Bay Area , although now living in Brentwood , she ’ s pure West Coast blue .
If @ @ @ @ @ @ @ first woman to occupy the vice-presidential mansion in Washington , D.C .
The first president or vice president since Warren Harding not to have had their own children .
Pence raised a Roman Catholic , and a Democrat in Indiana is a fundamentalist Christian and a rock-ribbed Republican .
What differences he had with Trump on immigration or foreign policy are gone along with his once lonely crusade for a shield law to protect journalists ’ confidential sources .
( Pence was a radio host with some empathy for the news before it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are the oldest nominees to run .
Their combined ages are 151 .
John Kennedy and Richard Nixon ’ s combined ages were 90 .
If Biden wins , he ’ ll be the second Catholic president , elected 60 years after JFK .
He will be the first widower president since Woodrow Wilson .
If Trump holds on , he ’ ll join Barack Obama and George W. Bush in a special club : Every president in this century will have won two-terms .
It now seems possible we ’ ll never @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , a decade big on babies but not babies who grew up to be president .
This election ’ s eventual victor will be a product of the 1940s , a decade every bit as turbulent as ours .

As the final votes were being tallied in battleground states, Joe Biden inched closer to winning the presidency on Friday, pulling ahead in Nevada and Pennsylvania. Donald Trump, reduced to lying about “illegal” votes, watched his chances of reelection evaporate.
The president’s leads in Georgia and Pennsylvania diminished with metronomic regularity on Thursday and into, and Friday as each new round of vote totals was released to the public. Late arriving votes from urban and suburban areas all but buried Trump’s chances in the two states. Philadelphia votes, which ran around 80-20 for Biden, were tallied amidst protests from Trump supporters and news reports of a thwarted attack on a vote-counting facility by the president’s backers. Atlanta and its suburbs seemed to put the kibosh on Trump’s chances in a state that’s been solidly red in presidential contests since 1992. Georgia’s secretary of state announced that there would be a recount after the final tally.
Recounts seemed certain in other states, too, possibly delaying a declaration of Biden’s victory into next week. Much depends on if and when news organizations decide to call one or more of the remaining states. Even with recounts, the possibility of a Trump victory seems almost implausible, requiring the president to win almost every outstanding contest.
So far, Trump’s efforts to change the vote count have proved hapless even if his authoritarian fulminations grow more shrill. His lawsuits have been largely swatted away by the courts. On Thursday, he took to the White House Briefing Room to declare that he was already the winner of the election when “legal votes” were counted. That is a lie. He also offered what can only be called crackpot theories, including the accusation that the nation’s polling firms had conspired against him to depress his vote. Late-night comics lampooned the president’s conspiratorial rantings, noting that it would be quite an accomplishment, indeed, for Democrats to plan a Biden victory in multiple states while losing Democratic house seats and floundering in the Senate.
Trump’s remarks, timed for the broadcast evening news but which most networks cut away from before he was finished, were a continuation of a tirade that began at 2:00 AM on Wednesday when the president appeared in the East Room of the White House, a venue usually reserved for bestowing medals or press conferences with visiting heads of state. There, he led an insomniac’s political rally and claimed an imaginary lead: “Frankly, we did win this election.” That was a brazen lie.
Trump’s determination to go to the Supreme Court, which he repeated on Thursday, ignored the justices’ inability to issue a single ruling that would stop balloting nationwide. (Each state has its own election law.) Counting ballots past midnight is commonplace in American elections for all offices, including the presidency. In 2000, 2004, and 2016 no winner had emerged by the stroke of midnight, and even when winners are projected earlier, counting and certification can take days or weeks.
Senate Woes
In the Senate, Democrats who were heavily favored to take the chamber are despairing that they’ll very likely remain in the minority. Democrats will need to pick up North Carolina to have any shot of taking the Senate, but that seemed increasingly unlikely, and incumbent Thom Tillis saw his lead widen against Democratic challenger, Cal Cunningham. Democratic hopes also rest on two Georgia Senate races that have yet to be determined. At least one is likely to be settled in a runoff later this month. On the other, incumbent Sen. David Purdue, a Republican, may yet reach the 50-percent threshold to avoid a runoff.
The week had proved profoundly disappointing for Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer as he watched one Democratic candidate after another falter. Once considered among the most vulnerable Republicans, Maine’s Susan Collins kept her seat, easily beating Maine House Speaker Sara Gideon. While Mark Kelly, the former astronaut, knocked off Republican Martha McSally to win the U.S. Senate seat in Arizona, other paths to Senate control disappeared for Senate Democrats. Joni Ernst, the Iowa Republican, kept her Senate seat. Democrats picked up a U.S. Senate seat in Colorado, where former Gov. John Hickenlooper handily beat incumbent Cory Gardner. But Democrats lost in South Carolina, where the lavishly funded bid of Jaime Harrison was dashed, and Lindsey Graham won a fourth term. In Montana, Gov. Steve Bullock, whom Democrats recruited to run, lost to Steve Daines, who won a second term. Meanwhile, Sen. Gary Peters of Michigan, a one-term Democrat, managed to hang on against John James’s surprisingly strong challenge.
Republicans were on track to pick up at least six seats in the House, putting an ax to the promising Congressional careers of freshman Democrats elected in the 2018 blue wave. In New York, Max Rose, a high profile Army veteran, lost his Staten Island-and-Brooklyn district. In Florida, former Health and Human Services Secretary Donna Shalala lost her bid for a second term, another victim of the Democrats’ surprisingly weak performance among Hispanics in South Florida.
Even if Biden prevails, his agenda could be on life support. The Senate, likely controlled by Mitch McConnell, the GOP leader from Kentucky, puts dreams of liberal reform–an end to the filibuster, statehood for the District of Columbia, and new seats on the Supreme Court–in peril. Biden’s progressive tax and spending plans seemed doomed. Should Biden win, it’s hard to think of another president in the modern era who took office during a crisis with such little strength in Congress. Even if Democrats can claw their way to a 50-50 tie in the Senate–making a Vice President Kamala Harris the tiebreaker–it would require lockstep unity in a Democratic party not exactly know for it.
Not Since LBJ
The anxiety-producing presidential race shows that Americans remain deeply divided as they faced the starkest presidential race since Lyndon Johnson squared off against Barry Goldwater in 1964. Biden heads the most progressive Democratic ticket since LBJ’s landslide election. His party’s platform touts massive expenditures, like Green New Deal style-investments in alternative energy and a bold public option to bolster the Affordable Care Act, as well as cultural changes like the end of the Hyde Amendment—which prohibits federal funding for Medicaid (Biden has supported the latter since 1979). The Democratic Party’s platform doesn’t fulfill all of the wants of its ascendant left-wing. Still, there’s enough there to keep them happy—for now.
By contrast, the GOP had no platform this year, reflecting the Republican Party’s subservience to the president. The triangulation that Trump hinted at in 2016—echoing Democratic priorities like protecting Social Security, investing in roads and bridges—never materialized. The Trump of 2020 is pushing for an end to the payroll tax, which would end Social Security. Famously and laughably, “Infrastructure Week” proved to be a mirage. Trump is a standard, donor-class Republican with an inhuman face. His anti-immigrant fervor, disdain for defense alliances, and multilateral trade pacts were a patina on traditional Republican faith in the trinity of tax cuts, conservative judges, and deregulation.
For Trump, the underdog, his coalition was paved with states with large populations of white working-class voters, including the Great Lakes states. His 2016 victories in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan cut off Hillary Clinton’s seemingly inevitable path to victory. His hold on Florida, Texas, North Carolina, and Georgia doomed her chances in states with growing Hispanic and suburban populations.
Thanks to his Pennsylvania roots—and doubtlessly owing much to his gender, perceived moderation, and maybe his age—Biden proved to be in a much stronger position than Clinton. His party is more unified, sobered by the lessons of 2016 and even 2000 when the Green Party bid of Ralph Nader doomed Al Gore.
It’s likely Biden’s low-key, some say lackadaisical, campaign was brilliant. One upside for Biden: it kept the focus on Trump, making the election a referendum on the president. Conversely, Biden’s making fewer campaign stops may turn out to have been too cautious.
The Ferrari Campaign
The mismanagement of Trump’s campaign is one for the ages. Hundreds of millions of dollars ill-spent, a campaign manager with a Ferrari who was only dispatched when it was too late, an inability to master small donor online fundraising—all of it made this campaign the gang that couldn’t shoot straight. In the final days of the race, Trump was forced to jet to California, a state where he stands no chance, to hustle money the old fashioned way—with a pricy fundraiser that’s far less efficient than merely collecting dollars online without any waiters or canapés.
Biden was simultaneously the most likely and least likely Democratic nominee this cycle. His 50-year tenure in electoral politics made him well known, and his eight-years as Barack Obama’s wingman transformed him from a Senate lifer into presidential timber.
But his age—he turns 78 this month—was always a looming burden, and his long history in the U.S. Senate is both a bragging right and an albatross. When Biden was sworn into the Senate in 1973, just days after his wife and daughter were killed in a car accident, the chamber had deep roots in the past. Three World War I veterans were still serving, as were multiple former segregationist Senators who chaired powerful committees, forcing him to work them and charm them alongside other young liberals. Ted Kennedy, who came to the Senate in 1962, ten years earlier, had the same work-with-segregationists history when he ran for president in 1980. Still, the Democratic Party of that year didn’t hold it against him, perhaps because he was a Kennedy. Biden got no such break this year. When Kamala Harris whacked him on school busing to achieve racial desegregation, it smarted.
But Biden played the long game. He didn’t jerk too far to the left during the primaries. He didn’t embrace single-payer health care, even while he jettisoned pro-corporate stances on bankruptcy reform and antitrust that unsettled the many financial institutions that make Delaware home. His long cultivation of Black voters—Delaware is the state with the ninth largest Black population, he often noted—and his unswerving loyalty to a younger Black president made him ripe for the endorsement of James Clyburn in South Carolina. The powerful House Democratic Whip used his Palmetto State machine and Black voters’ ready enthusiasm to push Biden to a resounding victory over minority candidates like Cory Booker or the party’s left stalwarts, Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders. The party gathered around Biden quickly; endorsements from rivals such as Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar poured in. The moment of Sanders’s inevitability proved very short, snatched by the Black voters in the state that launched the Civil War. Warren faltered quickly, coming in third in her home state.
Trump’s Republican party was unified from the start. He never faced a serious primary challenge. Those who put up a fight with the president like Republican Senators Bob Corker and Jeff Flake walked away rather than facing uphill battles in primaries dominated by MAGA devotees. The president could have used his unified party to reset his unpopular presidency, returning to infrastructure or easing back on the constant Twitter invectives. But he didn’t.
Trump Blows His Chance For a Reset
And that was before the pandemic. Perhaps the gravest national crisis in 100 years or at least since World War II and the Depression, COVID-19 could have been Trump’s lifeline. But a negligent response sent the death toll higher than it should ever have been. He turned mask-wearing into a political statement instead of a prophylactic. His blathering made him seem more idiotic than Churchillian. His continued self-indulgence amidst death—complaining about not getting a fair shake from Fox News of all places—made him seem, if not AWOL from the pandemic fight, then like he was cosseting the enemy. Even his illness, which might have provided a moment to right his campaign, was only a fleeting photo op. Still, the fact that he remains an underdog with a chance is testimony to his grip on rural America, traditional Republicans, and white-working-class men.
In Harris and Mike Pence, each man has found a running mate that matches their party perfectly. The California senator represents the Democrats’ diversity, with her Jamaican and Indian ancestry, Jewish husband, and Jewish stepchildren. Hailing from the Bay Area, although now living in Brentwood, she’s pure West Coast blue. If elected, she’ll be the first woman to occupy the vice-presidential mansion in Washington, D.C. The first president or vice president since Warren Harding not to have had their own children. Pence raised a Roman Catholic, and a Democrat in Indiana is a fundamentalist Christian and a rock-ribbed Republican. What differences he had with Trump on immigration or foreign policy are gone along with his once lonely crusade for a shield law to protect journalists’ confidential sources. (Pence was a radio host with some empathy for the news before it was fake.)
Trump and Biden are the oldest nominees to run. Their combined ages are 151. John Kennedy and Richard Nixon’s combined ages were 90. If Biden wins, he’ll be the second Catholic president, elected 60 years after JFK. He will be the first widower president since Woodrow Wilson. If Trump holds on, he’ll join Barack Obama and George W. Bush in a special club: Every president in this century will have won two-terms. It now seems possible we’ll never have a president born in the 1950s, a decade big on babies but not babies who grew up to be president. This election’s eventual victor will be a product of the 1940s, a decade every bit as turbulent as ours.


washingtonmonthly--2020-11-03--Pennsylvania Republicans Are Already Refusing to Count Absentee Ballots

Donald Trump has not been shy about his strategy to win the 2020 election .
After the polls close , he will sue to stop certain key states—like Pennsylvania , Wisconsin , and Michigan—from counting absentee ballots .
“ We ’ re going in with our lawyers , ” he said on Monday .
Republicans in Pennsylvania , which could ultimately decide the presidential contest , seem to have gotten the message .
As of Monday , several GOP elections officials in the Keystone State said they would not count absentee ballots that arrive after Election Day , even though @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Pennsylvania should count all ballots postmarked by Tuesday and received by Friday .
Ray D ’ Agostino , the GOP commissioner of Lancaster County , posted on Facebook that the county would set aside all of the ballots received after Tuesday—and explicitly said he would wait until a new ruling from the Supreme Court before tallying them .
“ Between Wednesday and Friday this week , mail ballots that came in Monday and Tuesday will be processed , and ballots received Wednesday through Friday with postmarks by 8 pm on Election Day ( @ @ @ @ @ @ @ aside until a decision by the U.S. Supreme Court or some other direction , ” he wrote .
In Luzerne County , in northeastern Pennsylvania outside of Scranton , officials are doing the same thing .
Kenneth Gould , a Republican member of the county ’ s Board of Elections , told The New Yorker that ballots received after Tuesday would not be included in the official vote count , preparing for potential litigation .
“ There ’ s no way for us to pull them out afterward , so we ’ re @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , ” he said .
Why would D ’ Agostino and Gould want to wait on another SCOTUS ruling when the high court has already issued one ?
It ’ s simple : Trump ’ s newly installed justice , Amy Coney Barrett , did not participate in the last decision , meaning Republicans are likely hoping the ruling could go another way the second time around .
The vote tally in these counties could prove key to Pennsylvania ’ s outcome .
In 2016 , Trump won Lancaster County by 137,914 votes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ won the state by roughly 44,000 votes overall .
In Luzerne County , Trump won by 26,000 votes four years ago , 78,688 to Clinton ’ s 52,451 .
In a very tight race , voter suppression in either place could be the difference between a Trump and Biden victory .
Nationally , Democrats have told pollsters that they plan to vote by mail in far greater numbers than do Republicans ( in no small part because of Trump ’ s false claims that voting by mail leads to widespread fraud ) .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ Pennsylvania , where 66 % of the absentee ballots that have already been returned have been from Democrats , according to the Philadelphia Inquirer .
Only 23 % have been from Republicans .
Mailed-in ballots , by their nature , take longer to process than in-person votes .
That means that already returned votes will take time to tally .
And many mail-in ballots haven ’ t been delivered to election offices yet .
Pennsylvania Republicans have been engineering a delay in absentee vote counting since the summer when they blocked legislation that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ before Election Day .
In states with a history of a large portion of citizens who vote from home , like in Florida and Ohio , absentee ballots are processed and counted as they are received .
Trump has said that voting should stop after Election Day .
It ’ s an argument that completely ignores history—votes have been routinely counted in the days and weeks following Election Day for decades .
Yet according to an Axios report , the president is planning to declare victory Tuesday night no matter what—banking on the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ many states after in-person votes are tabulated but before all of the absentee votes have been counted , and the winner can actually be announced .
Trump will then sue to stop further counting and hope the courts rule on his side , as he has indicated .
And as these GOP elections officials have made clear , they have a plan to help him .

Donald Trump has not been shy about his strategy to win the 2020 election. After the polls close, he will sue to stop certain key states—like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan—from counting absentee ballots. “We’re going in with our lawyers,” he said on Monday.
Republicans in Pennsylvania, which could ultimately decide the presidential contest, seem to have gotten the message. As of Monday, several GOP elections officials in the Keystone State said they would not count absentee ballots that arrive after Election Day, even though the U.S. Supreme Court recently ruled that Pennsylvania should count all ballots postmarked by Tuesday and received by Friday.
Ray D’Agostino, the GOP commissioner of Lancaster County, posted on Facebook that the county would set aside all of the ballots received after Tuesday—and explicitly said he would wait until a new ruling from the Supreme Court before tallying them. “Between Wednesday and Friday this week, mail ballots that came in Monday and Tuesday will be processed, and ballots received Wednesday through Friday with postmarks by 8 pm on Election Day (or no postmark) will be set aside until a decision by the U.S. Supreme Court or some other direction,” he wrote.
In Luzerne County, in northeastern Pennsylvania outside of Scranton, officials are doing the same thing. Kenneth Gould, a Republican member of the county’s Board of Elections, told The New Yorker that ballots received after Tuesday would not be included in the official vote count, preparing for potential litigation. “There’s no way for us to pull them out afterward, so we’re going to put them to the side,” he said.
Why would D’Agostino and Gould want to wait on another SCOTUS ruling when the high court has already issued one? It’s simple: Trump’s newly installed justice, Amy Coney Barrett, did not participate in the last decision, meaning Republicans are likely hoping the ruling could go another way the second time around.
The vote tally in these counties could prove key to Pennsylvania’s outcome. In 2016, Trump won Lancaster County by 137,914 votes to Clinton’s 91,091. He won the state by roughly 44,000 votes overall. In Luzerne County, Trump won by 26,000 votes four years ago, 78,688 to Clinton’s 52,451. In a very tight race, voter suppression in either place could be the difference between a Trump and Biden victory.
Nationally, Democrats have told pollsters that they plan to vote by mail in far greater numbers than do Republicans (in no small part because of Trump’s false claims that voting by mail leads to widespread fraud). That appears to be especially true in Pennsylvania, where 66% of the absentee ballots that have already been returned have been from Democrats, according to the Philadelphia Inquirer. Only 23% have been from Republicans. Mailed-in ballots, by their nature, take longer to process than in-person votes. That means that already returned votes will take time to tally. And many mail-in ballots haven’t been delivered to election offices yet.
Pennsylvania Republicans have been engineering a delay in absentee vote counting since the summer when they blocked legislation that would allow those ballots to be counted before Election Day. In states with a history of a large portion of citizens who vote from home, like in Florida and Ohio, absentee ballots are processed and counted as they are received.
Trump has said that voting should stop after Election Day. It’s an argument that completely ignores history—votes have been routinely counted in the days and weeks following Election Day for decades. Yet according to an Axios report, the president is planning to declare victory Tuesday night no matter what—banking on the possibility that he will be ahead in many states after in-person votes are tabulated but before all of the absentee votes have been counted, and the winner can actually be announced. Trump will then sue to stop further counting and hope the courts rule on his side, as he has indicated. And as these GOP elections officials have made clear, they have a plan to help him.