theguardian--2020-10-29--‘I regret voting for him': Ohioans hit by GM plant closure reflect on Trump

Before Covid-19 hit , Trisha Amato spent her weekdays behind a modest , ebony-colored desk , running the “ transition center ” that helps laid-off General Motors workers pick up the shards of their lives .
GM announced it was closing its mammoth plant in Lordstown , Ohio , in November 2018 and ever since Amato has been ladling out advice to the 1,700 laid-off workers on such matters as how to obtain jobless benefits and how to qualify for government assistance to pay for college courses .
The GM plant , the size of more than 100 football fields @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Lordstown – as recently as 2016 , it employed 4,500 workers , and in its 53-year history , it produced 16m vehicles .
Built alongside I-80 , the hulking plant has long been a monument to America ’ s industrial might , or perhaps one should say its fading industrial might .
Deep-voiced , with long , auburn hair and broad shoulders – she , too , had worked at the plant – Amato has problems of her own , saying that she can no longer afford health insurance for herself and her @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Amato , who is divorced , felt betrayed when GM said it would shut the plant – the company had received $ 60m in state subsidies , and had promised in return to keep the plant open through 2027 .
Many of the GM workers were also angry at Donald Trump .
During the 2016 campaign , he repeatedly proclaimed that he would make American manufacturing great again and would bring back jobs that had gone overseas .
That message resonated in Lordstown and nearby Youngstown , part of the Mahoning Valley @ @ @ @ @ @ @ decades by one factory and steel mill closing after another .
Trump ’ s repeated promise to bring back factory jobs played well not only in Ohio , but also in Michigan , Pennsylvania and Wisconsin , helping win over many blue-collar voters , who were key to his narrow victories in those states .
Blue-collar workers in those states could again play a decisive role in this year ’ s election , with many still supporting Trump , but some souring on him – perhaps enough to flip those states to Joe @ @ @ @ @ @ @ spoke in Youngstown and told the crowd that on his way in from the airport , he had seen the carcasses of too many factories and mills .
He bemoaned Ohio ’ s loss of manufacturing jobs , but then boldly assured the crowd : “ They ’ re all coming back !
” He next told his audience , many of them workers worried about plant closings : “ Don ’ t move !
Don ’ t sell your house !
” Laid-off GM Lordstown workers still rail about that speech .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ work ; many lost money selling their homes .
“ Some of my hardest days of the last few years came when everybody left , ” Amato told me .
“ They had to sell their houses.
” Hundreds of longtime Lordstown workers moved to take jobs at GM plants in Indiana , Michigan , Missouri , Kentucky , Tennessee and Texas – all so that they could continue receiving good United Auto Workers ( UAW ) wages ( around $ 30 an hour ) and accrue additional years toward their pensions .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ to 10-hour drive back to the Mahoning Valley once or twice each month to visit their families .
“ It ’ s all just a mess , ” said Amato .
“ The ones who left , they ’ re angry.
” GM offered to transfer Amato to its plant in Wentzville , Missouri , but she turned it down because her 19-year-old daughter was in high school and her 79-year-old father was ailing .
During the 2016 campaign , Trump had considerable support in the Lordstown plant even though surrounding Trumbull County @ @ @ @ @ @ @ though UAW members , stretching back to Franklin Roosevelt ’ s time , have tilted heavily Democratic .
Union officials estimate that 30 to 40 % of Lordstown ’ s workers voted for Trump .
“ They felt he was the lesser of two evils , ” Amato said .
The sentiment was , “ Let ’ s not have a lifetime politician in there .
Let ’ s get some change.
” “ Since so many of the steel mills closed , there isn ’ t much here economically , ” Amato @ @ @ @ @ @ @ praying that Trump would bring something here.
” The workers were wowed , she said , by his promises to bring back jobs and his being a seemingly successful businessman .
Asked whom she supported in 2016 , Amato told me : “ I backed Trump , ” but she followed that with a quick , nervous laugh .
“ I thought he stood for more of what I stood for.
” She , too , felt that Trump was the lesser of two evils .
Hillary Clinton was an excellent first lady @ @ @ @ @ @ @ mind , Clinton , by 2016 , had become yet another career politician .
“ She just changed , ” Amato said .
“ It comes down to character , and I wanted to believe Trump has a better character.
” Amato admits that she woefully misjudged Trump .
“ After he was elected , he really opened his mouth .
He started tweeting and saying things that I feel are crazy .
He doesn ’ t know when to stop.
” Upset at herself for backing Trump , she said : “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in a reality TV show.
” She added : “ Trump , he ’ s a clown.
” She had thought it would be good to have a businessman as president .
“ But maybe he ’ s not such a good businessman , ” she acknowledged , pointing to his numerous bankruptcies .
“ He doesn ’ t understand where the blue-collar workers are coming from .
I don ’ t think any of the big politicians understand that .
Trump , especially , doesn ’ t understand what it is to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ UAW Local 1112 , asked her to work at the transition center and ultimately to run it because she is a good listener and because , they told her , “ you ’ re so well-spoken you ought to talk to these people ” .
In 2008 , Amato quit her job as a counselor at a community home for the disabled to work for GM because it paid $ 5 more an hour and because it would pay for her college courses .
During her years at the plant , installing brake @ @ @ @ @ @ @ University , getting a bachelor ’ s degree and then a master ’ s in special education .
Amato did schoolwork during factory breaks and during her daughters ’ soccer practices and taekwondo classes .
While running the transition center inside Local 1112 ’ s union hall – and then from home once the coronavirus hit – Amato avoids discussing politics because people are so polarized and on edge .
She was appalled when Ohio ’ s health director , Dr Amy Acton , widely respected for her efforts to combat Covid-19 , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ her a tyrant and after protesters , some of them armed , held demonstrations outside her home .
“ Trump has done a really crappy job [ on Covid-19 ] , ” Amato said .
“ I wish he had backed his authoritative people on the subject , such as Fauci.
” Amato says she won ’ t vote for Trump this year , but isn ’ t sure whether she ’ ll back Biden .
“ I ’ m leaning in that direction , ” she said .
Her main reservation : @ @ @ @ @ @ @ guys who are in their 70s are just so out of touch with a whole different generation , ” she said .
“ I ’ d back Mayor Pete [ Buttigieg ] in a heartbeat.
” She feels he ’ s much more in touch with her generation – she ’ s in her 40s .
It was a single Trump tweet that caused Amato to definitively reject Trump : on 17 March 2019 , nine days after the plant produced its last car , he tweeted out an attack against the president @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Trump tweeted : “ Democrat UAW Local 1112 President David Green ought to get his act together and produce … I want action on Lordstown fast .
Stop complaining and get the job done.
” With her transition office next to Green ’ s , Amato had heard him talk hour after hour with Ohio ’ s senators and House members as well as mayors and town council members , strategizing on how to pressure GM to keep the plant open .
Green helped get parents , teachers and community leaders to write @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was a 3ft-tall letter , perched on an easel , that kindergarten teachers had written to the company ’ s CEO , Mary Barra : “ Dear Mary .
Please consider keeping our local jobs local … GM Lordstown is a main source of income for many families.
” To Amato , it was unconscionable for Trump to blame the plant closing on a local union official rather GM .
“ When he called out Dave Green , that was huge .
Did he not understand the fact that Dave Green had no @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
“ That was what I mean – someone should take his Twitter away.
” Dave Green is a brawny 50-year-old with salt-and-pepper hair who has reluctantly moved to Bedford , Indiana , to work at the GM Powertrain plant there .
He puts in 12-hour shifts , often six or seven days a week , pouring molten metal to help make engine blocks .
With 25 years at GM under his belt , he left Local 1112 ’ s presidency to put in five more years to get his full 30-year pension @ @ @ @ @ @ @ who is divorced , drives the six and a half hours back to north-east Ohio to visit his parents and 23-year-old daughter .
He feels betrayed by GM ’ s decision to shutter the plant ; he says the Lordstown workers were doing a “ bang-up job ” .
He also said Trump did the Lordstown workers no favors .
Soon after taking office , Trump relaxed fuel-efficiency standards for cars , and that , Green realized , could doom the plant , which made compact , fuel-efficient Chevy Cruzes .
“ He @ @ @ @ @ @ @ he announced he would do away with the Cafe [ Corporate Average Fuel Economy ] standards , ” Green said .
“ Auto manufacturers here had to build so many small cars to balance for all the SUV ’ s .
When Cafe went away , Trump did the workers of Lordstown a huge disservice.
” He doesn ’ t blame Trump for the plant closing , but says Trump accelerated GM ’ s decision , noting that GM much preferred building SUV ’ s and trucks to lower-profit small cars .
Green @ @ @ @ @ @ @ GM announced the closing .
“ I never even got a generic got-your-letter , ” he said .
“ And then the guy blasts me out on Twitter .
He ’ s not spreading good cheer .
He ’ s always attacking people .
“ He came after me , and that hurt my kids .
My youngest daughter was saying how people in her high school said your dad is one of the reasons the plant is closing .
She was upset by that .
I ’ m a man .
I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ come after me , it can hurt my family .
That ’ s what really bothered me.
” Green is definitely not a Trump fan , but he said : “ Hillary was a hard person for a lot of people to get behind , for whatever reason .
I don ’ t know exactly why .
Maybe because she was another Clinton .
Maybe because she ’ s a woman.
” He castigated the Clinton campaign for obtuseness : “ They send in some kids with college degrees [ to the Mahoning @ @ @ @ @ @ @ people how we ’ re going to ” rally blue-collar support for Clinton .
“ Donald Trump , ” Green continued , “ says a lot of things that people want to hear , about buying American , bringing back American jobs , building a wall .
We ’ re going to make America great again .
But people don ’ t realize he ’ s a liar and a con man.
” Like many labor leaders , Green can hold forth at length about how Trump has failed to deliver to workers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ he would be “ the greatest jobs president that God ever created ” , the US added 1.5m fewer jobs in his first three years in office than during Barack Obama ’ s last three years ( 8.1m versus 6.6m ) .
And that ’ s all before the pandemic .
Including the jobs lost since Covid-19 hit , the US actually has 3.9m fewer jobs than when Trump took office .
Moreover , during Trump ’ s first three years , Ohio added only 36 % as many jobs as during Obama @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has actually lost 329,000 jobs since Trump became president , including a decline of 26,000 manufacturing jobs .
Like many Ohioans eager to preserve manufacturing jobs , Green was irate that Trump called for boycotting Goodyear , which is based in Akron .
He also didn ’ t like that Trump once said GM ’ s Lordstown shutdown “ doesn ’ t really matter ” because “ Ohio ’ s going to replace those jobs , like , in two minutes ” .
Green is also unhappy that Trump failed to deliver on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ workers : to create a $ 1tn infrastructure program to fix the nation ’ s roads , bridges and airports , a move that would create hundreds of thousands of good-paying jobs .
Green is mystified about why so many blue-collar workers think Trump has done a good job on the economy .
“ I don ’ t understand it , but they love their guns , ” he said .
“ I thought some people had moved away from him [ Trump ] , but they have all of a sudden gravitated @ @ @ @ @ @ @ t know what ’ s happened .
Maybe they have amnesia , or they only watch Fox News.
” Mickie Harris doesn ’ t have amnesia or watch Fox News much , but she remains an ardent Trump supporter .
Harris , who worked at the Lordstown plant from 2008 to 2019 , voted for Trump in 2016 and says she will do so again this year .
“ He is somebody who is more on our side , ” she told me .
“ Trump seems to be more understanding of what @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on this politician ’ s level.
” She says the village where she lives , West Farmington , 15 miles north of Lordstown , is dotted with Trump signs .
“ A lot of people like how Trump is trying to do things , but I think they feel he ’ s got to stop with some of the lying and some of the things he says.
” At the same time , she praises Trump ’ s outspokenness .
“ He says things that some politicians say shouldn ’ t be said.
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Mahoning Valley , with iconic companies like Youngstown Sheet and Tube , was teeming with blast furnaces , rolling mills and coke batteries .
“ Most of the steel buildings have been torn down , ” she said .
“ I go past the old steel mills – I like to do wildlife and nature photography .
There are some bald eagles there I try to catch.
” Harris turned down GM ’ s offer to transfer because she wanted to stay close to her ageing parents , grandparents and in-laws .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ health information management technology , with her tuition paid by federal trade adjustment assistance .
That program aids workers who lose their jobs to imports or offshoring .
To her mind , one of Trump ’ s best policies is his push to keep jobs in America .
“ He ’ s trying to establish that we ’ re not so reliant on other countries , and we can keep more jobs here in the US , ” she said .
“ If we can get more jobs , then more people would @ @ @ @ @ @ @ push to raise wages.
” Harris is from a family of Republicans and has an intense dislike of Nancy Pelosi .
“ I told my husband one day , ‘ I think that lady is the devil , ’ ” she said .
“ She ’ s trying to keep everybody divided and a lot of the things from getting done.
” To her mind , one of Trump ’ s best policies is his push to keep jobs in America .
“ He ’ s trying to establish that we ’ re @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and we can keep more jobs here in the US , ” she said .
“ If we can get more jobs , then more people would have more money and then we can push to raise wages.
” Harris is from a family of Republicans and has an intense dislike of Nancy Pelosi .
“ I told my husband one day , ‘ I think that lady is the devil , ’ ” she said .
“ She ’ s trying to keep everybody divided and a lot of the things from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Harris said : “ He ’ s a career politician .
“ I just don ’ t feel he ’ s going to actually listen to the American people .
He ’ s just going to follow the politician ’ s route and not listen to the public.
” Even though the economy has faltered and Covid-19 continues to rage across much of the nation , Harris doesn ’ t fault Trump .
On he economy , she said , “ It ’ s a give and take .
There are some things @ @ @ @ @ @ @ things he needs to improve.
” She regrets that Trump has made some uninformed statements on Covid , but defends his policies fighting the virus .
“ What else can you do ?
” she said .
“ It ’ s something new .
We ’ ve never experienced before .
We have no easy way of killing it .
They ’ re trying to get a vaccine.
” She is convinced that Trump is battling for people like her .
“ If Trump is re-elected , I hope that he will keep @ @ @ @ @ @ @ people and keep fighting to try to keep jobs.
” Mike Yakim , who worked as a team leader in Lordstown ’ s paint department , also backed Trump in 2016 and remains a big fan .
“ I had my reservations about him .
I know he ’ s not a saint , ” Yakim said .
“ But I had a good feeling about him .
Trump seemed to be for the little guy .
After the Lordstown plant closed , Yakim , sturdily built with straight brown hair and a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ plant in Lansing , Michigan , driving four hours back to Ohio each weekend to visit his wife .
He blames GM , not Trump for the shutdown .
“ You can ’ t dump on the guy .
GM had this plan all along.
” Before hiring on at Lordstown , Yakim , 52 , had worked for more than 15 years at GM ’ s plants in Baltimore and Wilmington , Delaware , both of which have closed .
So it should be no surprise that he was keen on Trump @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
“ He ’ s promoted America first and America and its manufacturing base , ” Yakim said .
“ That was neglected for a long time under the past three presidents : Clinton , Bush and Obama .
Some of them took it for granted that manufacturing would be here forever.
” He said that they and their trade deals helped spur an exodus of factory jobs and a race to the bottom “ where they dragged down all the wages ” .
He voiced dismay that some temp workers at GM @ @ @ @ @ @ @ far lower , after factoring inflation , than the $ 17 an hour he made when he was beginning at GM ’ s Baltimore plant 26 years ago .
Yakim seems to hold Hillary Clinton guilty by association for her husband ’ s pushing through ratification of Nafta .
“ She ’ s abrasive , ” he said .
“ She used terms like basket of deplorables .
These are your constituents … You can ’ t do that .
These are people you need to vote for you.
” He similarly has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ saw what Biden has done to the economy , what he ’ s done in 47 years in office : his support of Nafta , that pretty much gutted the auto industry , and his rallying for the TPP [ Trans-Pacific Partnership ] .
” He asks why Biden didn ’ t do more to stop GM from closing its Wilmington plant in 2009 or stop Chrysler from shutting its plant there in 2008 .
Yakim gives Trump high marks on the economy .
“ My 401 ( k ) loves him , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s the greatest thing in the world.
” He is okay with how Trump has handled Covid-19 , and he ’ s confident that Trump , if re-elected , will continue battling to bring back jobs .
“ He ’ s brought the shakeup of DC which needed to be done , ” Yakim said .
During the Lordstown plant ’ s final years , Danny Adams was a self-appointed scourge against Trump .
When he heard workers lauding Trump , he would often get in their face , asking how could they @ @ @ @ @ @ @ they back someone who was trying to kill Obamacare and take away health coverage millions of Americans ?
“ He ’ s a bully who speaks out the side of his mouth and probably has the mentality of a 12-year-old , ” Adams said .
To his mind , the promise Trump made in Youngstown to bring back all the jobs was demagogic and absurd .
“ People believe this false prophet , ” he said .
“ I call him the orange orangutan.
” Adams often reminds Trump backers that Trump ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ standards hastened their plant ’ s demise .
“ I told them voting has consequences.
” After working at the Lordstown plant for 24 years , Adams also transferred to GM ’ s plant in Lansing , sharing an apartment there with a friend .
Most weekends he drove back home to visit his wife , son , daughter and parents .
But in January , Adams slipped on the ice in the Lansing plant ’ s parking lot and tore his ACL .
He had surgery and has moved back home to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Adams – who said he didn ’ t go to college because his family couldn ’ t afford it – has read John Bolton , Michael Cohen and Mary Trump ’ s new books .
“ You got to read these books because this guy is a childish , spoiled rotten person , ” Adams said .
“ Trump is a guy who was born on third base , but he acts like he hit a triple.
” Adams said many of the Lordstown workers who supported Trump in 2016 had been @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Hillary taking their guns ” .
He describes many Trump fans he knows as “ one-shot : God , guns or abortion .
There ’ s the gun person .
There ’ s the abortion person .
There ’ s the immigration person .
You ’ re never going to change them.
” But Jason Markovich did change his mind on Trump – he ’ s not a one-issue or one-shot guy .
“ We thought that with Trump and his policies , he was going to protect us , ” said Markovich @ @ @ @ @ @ @ years working at the Lordstown plant .
“ I voted for him [ the first time he ever voted for a Republican for president ] .
I watched The Apprentice .
I loved that show .
That ’ s kind of person I wanted .
I thought that ’ s the guy who ’ s going to keep my job another four to eight years .
I just felt Trump was more business qualified … I thought he would support blue-collar people.
” But Markovich has turned against Trump , especially after the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ did little to save it , despite the reassuring words in his Youngstown speech .
“ He talked a lot about the auto industry – that was a big deal .
He was going to keep it here .
That he was going to cut back on imports .
That never happened.
” GM offered Markovich a job at its Corvette plant in Bowling Green , Kentucky , but he rejected the transfer because he wanted to stay near his ageing father and because his 17-year-old son , who has Asperger ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ school .
Markovich took a $ 67,500 buyout , complaining that it was equal to only about one-year ’ s pay .
After being unemployed for more than a year , he was offered a unionized job at a large bakery , but he never started there because of the Covid-related slowdown .
“ I don ’ t like where our country is right now , ” Markovich said .
“ I don ’ t like where our valley is .
The rich are getting richer , and the middle class is getting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ our country can handle another four years of Donald Trump.
” He added that Trump “ has dropped the ball big time ” in how he has handled Covid-19 .
He likes Biden – he once shook Biden ’ s hand when Biden was visiting the Mahoning Valley .
But he said : “ I ’ d vote for anyone who was running against Trump.
” Tammy Vennetti voted for Trump in 2016 , largely because her older sister , a retired GM worker , kept urging her to .
“ I listened @ @ @ @ @ @ @ though they ’ re Democrats .
They said he was going to make things different .
I said I never voted for a Republican before and then I did .
I really thought in my later years , let me see how a Republican would work.
” Vennetti , 57 , had racked up 25 years with GM when the Lordstown plant closed .
She wanted to transfer to another plant to obtain a 30-year pension , but around the time Lordstown closed , she was suffering from stomach problems and needed a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a knee replacement , and that led a severe infection and more surgery .
She ’ s still on medical leave , uncertain if or when she ’ ll be able to transfer .
“ I regret in a way voting for Trump .
I really do.
” She is still fuming about his do-not-sell-your home remarks in Youngstown ” “ He promised that nobody was going to have to sell their homes .
He said they [ GM ] were going to stay .
That ’ s why I can ’ t @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sister still strongly supports Trump .
“ She says she ’ s going to put a Trump sign in my yard , and I told her , no she ’ s not.
” “ My sister says , ‘ You should be watching Fox News .
You need to be watching Fox News.
’ I really don ’ t have time .
If I ’ m not at the doctor ’ s , I ’ m watching my grandkid.
” Vennetti is ambivalent about Biden .
“ I don ’ t really want @ @ @ @ @ @ @ she said .

Before Covid-19 hit, Trisha Amato spent her weekdays behind a modest, ebony-colored desk, running the “transition center” that helps laid-off General Motors workers pick up the shards of their lives. GM announced it was closing its mammoth plant in Lordstown, Ohio, in November 2018 and ever since Amato has been ladling out advice to the 1,700 laid-off workers on such matters as how to obtain jobless benefits and how to qualify for government assistance to pay for college courses.
The GM plant, the size of more than 100 football fields, had long been the heart of Lordstown – as recently as 2016, it employed 4,500 workers, and in its 53-year history, it produced 16m vehicles. Built alongside I-80, the hulking plant has long been a monument to America’s industrial might, or perhaps one should say its fading industrial might.
Deep-voiced, with long, auburn hair and broad shoulders – she, too, had worked at the plant – Amato has problems of her own, saying that she can no longer afford health insurance for herself and her two daughters on her transition center salary. Amato, who is divorced, felt betrayed when GM said it would shut the plant – the company had received $60m in state subsidies, and had promised in return to keep the plant open through 2027.
Many of the GM workers were also angry at Donald Trump. During the 2016 campaign, he repeatedly proclaimed that he would make American manufacturing great again and would bring back jobs that had gone overseas. That message resonated in Lordstown and nearby Youngstown, part of the Mahoning Valley area that has been dragged down for decades by one factory and steel mill closing after another. Trump’s repeated promise to bring back factory jobs played well not only in Ohio, but also in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, helping win over many blue-collar voters, who were key to his narrow victories in those states. Blue-collar workers in those states could again play a decisive role in this year’s election, with many still supporting Trump, but some souring on him – perhaps enough to flip those states to Joe Biden.
In July 2017, Trump spoke in Youngstown and told the crowd that on his way in from the airport, he had seen the carcasses of too many factories and mills. He bemoaned Ohio’s loss of manufacturing jobs, but then boldly assured the crowd: “They’re all coming back!” He next told his audience, many of them workers worried about plant closings: “Don’t move! Don’t sell your house!”
A sign supporting Donald Trump and Mike Pence hangs on a house in Lordstown, Ohio. Photograph: Megan Jelinger/AFP/Getty Images
Laid-off GM Lordstown workers still rail about that speech. Many moved to other cities to find work; many lost money selling their homes. “Some of my hardest days of the last few years came when everybody left,” Amato told me. “They had to sell their houses.” Hundreds of longtime Lordstown workers moved to take jobs at GM plants in Indiana, Michigan, Missouri, Kentucky, Tennessee and Texas – all so that they could continue receiving good United Auto Workers (UAW) wages (around $30 an hour) and accrue additional years toward their pensions. Many in this diaspora make the four- to 10-hour drive back to the Mahoning Valley once or twice each month to visit their families.
“It’s all just a mess,” said Amato. “The ones who left, they’re angry.” GM offered to transfer Amato to its plant in Wentzville, Missouri, but she turned it down because her 19-year-old daughter was in high school and her 79-year-old father was ailing.
During the 2016 campaign, Trump had considerable support in the Lordstown plant even though surrounding Trumbull county is traditionally a Democratic stronghold and even though UAW members, stretching back to Franklin Roosevelt’s time, have tilted heavily Democratic. Union officials estimate that 30 to 40% of Lordstown’s workers voted for Trump. “They felt he was the lesser of two evils,” Amato said. The sentiment was, “Let’s not have a lifetime politician in there. Let’s get some change.
“Since so many of the steel mills closed, there isn’t much here economically,” Amato added. “They were hoping or praying that Trump would bring something here.” The workers were wowed, she said, by his promises to bring back jobs and his being a seemingly successful businessman.
Asked whom she supported in 2016, Amato told me: “I backed Trump,” but she followed that with a quick, nervous laugh. “I thought he stood for more of what I stood for.”
She, too, felt that Trump was the lesser of two evils. Hillary Clinton was an excellent first lady, she said, but to her mind, Clinton, by 2016, had become yet another career politician. “She just changed,” Amato said. “It comes down to character, and I wanted to believe Trump has a better character.”
Amato admits that she woefully misjudged Trump. “After he was elected, he really opened his mouth. He started tweeting and saying things that I feel are crazy. He doesn’t know when to stop.”
Upset at herself for backing Trump, she said: “I feel like I’m living in a reality TV show.” She added: “Trump, he’s a clown.”
She had thought it would be good to have a businessman as president. “But maybe he’s not such a good businessman,” she acknowledged, pointing to his numerous bankruptcies. “He doesn’t understand where the blue-collar workers are coming from. I don’t think any of the big politicians understand that. Trump, especially, doesn’t understand what it is to struggle.”
Trump, especially, doesn’t understand what it is to struggle Trisha Amato
Amato’s union, UAW Local 1112, asked her to work at the transition center and ultimately to run it because she is a good listener and because, they told her, “you’re so well-spoken you ought to talk to these people”. In 2008, Amato quit her job as a counselor at a community home for the disabled to work for GM because it paid $5 more an hour and because it would pay for her college courses. During her years at the plant, installing brake parts, she studied at Youngstown State University, getting a bachelor’s degree and then a master’s in special education. Amato did schoolwork during factory breaks and during her daughters’ soccer practices and taekwondo classes.
While running the transition center inside Local 1112’s union hall – and then from home once the coronavirus hit – Amato avoids discussing politics because people are so polarized and on edge. She was appalled when Ohio’s health director, Dr Amy Acton, widely respected for her efforts to combat Covid-19, resigned in June after conservative lawmakers called her a tyrant and after protesters, some of them armed, held demonstrations outside her home. “Trump has done a really crappy job [on Covid-19],” Amato said. “I wish he had backed his authoritative people on the subject, such as Fauci.”
Amato says she won’t vote for Trump this year, but isn’t sure whether she’ll back Biden. “I’m leaning in that direction,” she said. Her main reservation: Biden’s age. “These guys who are in their 70s are just so out of touch with a whole different generation,” she said. “I’d back Mayor Pete [Buttigieg] in a heartbeat.” She feels he’s much more in touch with her generation – she’s in her 40s.
It was a single Trump tweet that caused Amato to definitively reject Trump: on 17 March 2019, nine days after the plant produced its last car, he tweeted out an attack against the president of Lordstown’s UAW local. Trump tweeted: “Democrat UAW Local 1112 President David Green ought to get his act together and produce … I want action on Lordstown fast. Stop complaining and get the job done.”
With her transition office next to Green’s, Amato had heard him talk hour after hour with Ohio’s senators and House members as well as mayors and town council members, strategizing on how to pressure GM to keep the plant open. Green helped get parents, teachers and community leaders to write letters to GM – in his office was a 3ft-tall letter, perched on an easel, that kindergarten teachers had written to the company’s CEO, Mary Barra: “Dear Mary. Please consider keeping our local jobs local … GM Lordstown is a main source of income for many families.”
To Amato, it was unconscionable for Trump to blame the plant closing on a local union official rather GM. “When he called out Dave Green, that was huge. Did he not understand the fact that Dave Green had no control over this?” Amato said. “That was what I mean – someone should take his Twitter away.”
Retired lawyer and labor activist Staughton Lynd offers his support to United Auto Workers picketing outside the GM plant in Lordstown on 23 September 2019. Photograph: Craig F. Walker/Boston Globe/Getty Images
Dave Green is a brawny 50-year-old with salt-and-pepper hair who has reluctantly moved to Bedford, Indiana, to work at the GM Powertrain plant there. He puts in 12-hour shifts, often six or seven days a week, pouring molten metal to help make engine blocks. With 25 years at GM under his belt, he left Local 1112’s presidency to put in five more years to get his full 30-year pension. Once a month, Green, who is divorced, drives the six and a half hours back to north-east Ohio to visit his parents and 23-year-old daughter.
He feels betrayed by GM’s decision to shutter the plant; he says the Lordstown workers were doing a “bang-up job”. He also said Trump did the Lordstown workers no favors. Soon after taking office, Trump relaxed fuel-efficiency standards for cars, and that, Green realized, could doom the plant, which made compact, fuel-efficient Chevy Cruzes. “He wasn’t in office long before he announced he would do away with the Cafe [Corporate Average Fuel Economy] standards,” Green said. “Auto manufacturers here had to build so many small cars to balance for all the SUVs. When Cafe went away, Trump did the workers of Lordstown a huge disservice.” He doesn’t blame Trump for the plant closing, but says Trump accelerated GM’s decision, noting that GM much preferred building SUVs and trucks to lower-profit small cars.
Green says he wrote twice to Trump after GM announced the closing. “I never even got a generic got-your-letter,” he said. “And then the guy blasts me out on Twitter. He’s not spreading good cheer. He’s always attacking people.
[Trump] came after me, and that hurt my kids Dave Green
“He came after me, and that hurt my kids. My youngest daughter was saying how people in her high school said your dad is one of the reasons the plant is closing. She was upset by that. I’m a man. I can handle it. But when you come after me, it can hurt my family. That’s what really bothered me.”
Green is definitely not a Trump fan, but he said: “Hillary was a hard person for a lot of people to get behind, for whatever reason. I don’t know exactly why. Maybe because she was another Clinton. Maybe because she’s a woman.” He castigated the Clinton campaign for obtuseness: “They send in some kids with college degrees [to the Mahoning Valley] to tell all these working people how we’re going to” rally blue-collar support for Clinton.
“Donald Trump,” Green continued, “says a lot of things that people want to hear, about buying American, bringing back American jobs, building a wall. We’re going to make America great again. But people don’t realize he’s a liar and a conman.”
Like many labor leaders, Green can hold forth at length about how Trump has failed to deliver to workers. Despite Trump’s boast that he would be “the greatest jobs president that God ever created”, the US added 1.5m fewer jobs in his first three years in office than during Barack Obama’s last three years (8.1m versus 6.6m). And that’s all before the pandemic. Including the jobs lost since Covid-19 hit, the US actually has 3.9m fewer jobs than when Trump took office. Moreover, during Trump’s first three years, Ohio added only 36% as many jobs as during Obama’s last three years. Ohio has actually lost 329,000 jobs since Trump became president, including a decline of 26,000 manufacturing jobs.
Like many Ohioans eager to preserve manufacturing jobs, Green was irate that Trump called for boycotting Goodyear, which is based in Akron. He also didn’t like that Trump once said GM’s Lordstown shutdown “doesn’t really matter” because “Ohio’s going to replace those jobs, like, in two minutes”. Green is also unhappy that Trump failed to deliver on an ambitious promise that excited many blue-collar workers: to create a $1tn infrastructure program to fix the nation’s roads, bridges and airports, a move that would create hundreds of thousands of good-paying jobs.
Trump seems to be more understanding of what we as Americans want instead of just on this politician’s level Mickie Harris
Green is mystified about why so many blue-collar workers think Trump has done a good job on the economy. “I don’t understand it, but they love their guns,” he said. “I thought some people had moved away from him [Trump], but they have all of a sudden gravitated back to him. I don’t know what’s happened. Maybe they have amnesia, or they only watch Fox News.”
Mickie Harris doesn’t have amnesia or watch Fox News much, but she remains an ardent Trump supporter. Harris, who worked at the Lordstown plant from 2008 to 2019, voted for Trump in 2016 and says she will do so again this year. “He is somebody who is more on our side,” she told me. “Trump seems to be more understanding of what we as Americans want instead of just on this politician’s level.” She says the village where she lives, West Farmington, 15 miles north of Lordstown, is dotted with Trump signs. “A lot of people like how Trump is trying to do things, but I think they feel he’s got to stop with some of the lying and some of the things he says.” At the same time, she praises Trump’s outspokenness. “He says things that some politicians say shouldn’t be said.”
Harris, 47, remembers when the Mahoning Valley, with well-known companies like Youngstown Sheet and Tube, was teeming with blast furnaces, rolling mills and coke batteries. “Most of the steel buildings have been torn down,” she said. “I go past the old steel mills – I like to do wildlife and nature photography. There are some bald eagles there I try to catch.”
Harris turned down GM’s offer to transfer because she wanted to stay close to her ageing parents, grandparents and in-laws. She is pursuing an associate degree in health information management technology, with her tuition paid by federal trade adjustment assistance. That program aids workers who lose their jobs to imports or offshoring.
To her mind, one of Trump’s best policies is his push to keep jobs in America. “He’s trying to establish that we’re not so reliant on other countries, and we can keep more jobs here in the US,” she said. “If we can get more jobs, then more people would have more money and then we can push to raise wages.”
Harris is from a family of Republicans and has an intense dislike of Nancy Pelosi. “I told my husband one day, ‘I think that lady is the devil,’” she said. “She’s trying to keep everybody divided and a lot of the things from getting done.”
As for Biden, Harris said: “He’s a career politician. “I just don’t feel he’s going to actually listen to the American people. He’s just going to follow the politician’s route and not listen to the public.”
10:44 Broken promises and alternative facts: how Donald Trump failed Ohio – video
Even though the economy has faltered and Covid-19 continues to rage across much of the nation, Harris doesn’t fault Trump. On he economy, she said, “It’s a give and take. There are some things he seems to improve, and some things he needs to improve.” She regrets that Trump has made some uninformed statements on Covid, but defends his policies fighting the virus. “What else can you do?” she said. “It’s something new. We’ve never experienced before. We have no easy way of killing it. They’re trying to get a vaccine.”
She is convinced that Trump is battling for people like her. “If Trump is re-elected, I hope that he will keep fighting for what is considered the lower-class people and keep fighting to try to keep jobs.”
Mike Yakim, who worked as a team leader in Lordstown’s paint department, also backed Trump in 2016 and remains a big fan. “I had my reservations about him. I know he’s not a saint,” Yakim said. “But I had a good feeling about him. Trump seemed to be for the little guy.
After the Lordstown plant closed, Yakim, sturdily built with straight brown hair and a piercing gaze, transferred to the GM plant in Lansing, Michigan, driving four hours back to Ohio each weekend to visit his wife. He blames GM, not Trump for the shutdown. “You can’t dump on the guy. GM had this plan all along.”
Before hiring on at Lordstown, Yakim, 52, had worked for more than 15 years at GM’s plants in Baltimore and Wilmington, Delaware, both of which have closed. So it should be no surprise that he was keen on Trump’s talk of saving factory jobs. “He’s promoted America first and America and its manufacturing base,” Yakim said. “That was neglected for a long time under the past three presidents: Clinton, Bush and Obama. Some of them took it for granted that manufacturing would be here forever.” He said that they and their trade deals helped spur an exodus of factory jobs and a race to the bottom “where they dragged down all the wages”. He voiced dismay that some temp workers at GM now make $16.67 an hour, far lower, after factoring inflation, than the $17 an hour he made when he was beginning at GM’s Baltimore plant 26 years ago.
Yakim seems to hold Hillary Clinton guilty by association for her husband’s pushing through ratification of Nafta. “She’s abrasive,” he said. “She used terms like basket of deplorables. These are your constituents … You can’t do that. These are people you need to vote for you.” He similarly has little enthusiasm for Biden. “I saw what Biden has done to the economy, what he’s done in 47 years in office: his support of Nafta, that pretty much gutted the auto industry, and his rallying for the TPP [Trans-Pacific Partnership].” He asks why Biden didn’t do more to stop GM from closing its Wilmington plant in 2009 or stop Chrysler from shutting its plant there in 2008.
Yakim gives Trump high marks on the economy. “My 401(k) loves him,” he said. “It’s the greatest thing in the world.” He is OK with how Trump has handled Covid-19, and he’s confident that Trump, if re-elected, will continue battling to bring back jobs. “He’s brought the shake-up of DC which needed to be done,” Yakim said.
A worker refurbishes a passenger train car named the Trump Train in Lordstown on 15 October. Photograph: Megan Jelinger/AFP/Getty Images
During the Lordstown plant’s final years, Danny Adams was a self-appointed scourge against Trump. When he heard workers lauding Trump, he would often get in their face, asking how could they back such a liar, how could they back someone who was trying to kill Obamacare and take away health coverage millions of Americans?
“He’s a bully who speaks out the side of his mouth and probably has the mentality of a 12-year-old,” Adams said. To his mind, the promise Trump made in Youngstown to bring back all the jobs was demagogic and absurd. “People believe this false prophet,” he said. “I call him the orange orangutan.” Adams often reminds Trump backers that Trump’s decision to roll back fuel efficiency standards hastened their plant’s demise. “I told them voting has consequences.”
After working at the Lordstown plant for 24 years, Adams also transferred to GM’s plant in Lansing, sharing an apartment there with a friend. Most weekends he drove back home to visit his wife, son, daughter and parents.
Trump is a guy who was born on third base, but he acts like he hit a triple Danny Adams
But in January, Adams slipped on the ice in the Lansing plant’s parking lot and tore his ACL. He had surgery and has moved back home to Ohio while recovering. In recent months, Adams – who said he didn’t go to college because his family couldn’t afford it – has read John Bolton, Michael Cohen and Mary Trump’s new books. “You got to read these books because this guy is a childish, spoiled rotten person,” Adams said. “Trump is a guy who was born on third base, but he acts like he hit a triple.”
Adams said many of the Lordstown workers who supported Trump in 2016 had been in the military and “worried about Hillary taking their guns”. He describes many Trump fans he knows as “one-shot: God, guns or abortion. There’s the gun person. There’s the abortion person. There’s the immigration person. You’re never going to change them.”
But Jason Markovich did change his mind on Trump – he’s not a one-issue or one-shot guy. “We thought that with Trump and his policies, he was going to protect us,” said Markovich, who spent 20 of his 43 years working at the Lordstown plant. “I voted for him [the first time he ever voted for a Republican for president]. I watched The Apprentice. I loved that show. That’s kind of person I wanted. I thought that’s the guy who’s going to keep my job another four to eight years. I just felt Trump was more business-qualified … I thought he would support blue-collar people.”
But Markovich has turned against Trump, especially after the Lordstown plant closed – he thought Trump did little to save it, despite the reassuring words in his Youngstown speech. “He talked a lot about the auto industry – that was a big deal. He was going to keep it here. That he was going to cut back on imports. That never happened.”
GM offered Markovich a job at its Corvette plant in Bowling Green, Kentucky, but he rejected the transfer because he wanted to stay near his ageing father and because his 17-year-old son, who has Asperger’s, was doing well at his current school. Markovich took a $67,500 buyout, complaining that it was equal to only about one-year’s pay. After being unemployed for more than a year, he was offered a unionized job at a large bakery, but he never started there because of the Covid-related slowdown.
“I don’t like where our country is right now,” Markovich said. “I don’t like where our valley is. The rich are getting richer, and the middle class is getting squeezed. I don’t think our country can handle another four years of Donald Trump.” He added that Trump “has dropped the ball big time” in how he has handled Covid-19. He likes Biden – he once shook Biden’s hand when Biden was visiting the Mahoning Valley. But he said: “I’d vote for anyone who was running against Trump.”
Tammy Vennetti voted for Trump in 2016, largely because her older sister, a retired GM worker, kept urging her to. “I listened to my sister and her husband even though they’re Democrats. They said he was going to make things different. I said I never voted for a Republican before and then I did. I really thought in my later years, let me see how a Republican would work.”
Vennetti, 57, had racked up 25 years with GM when the Lordstown plant closed. She wanted to transfer to another plant to obtain a 30-year pension, but around the time Lordstown closed, she was suffering from stomach problems and needed a gall bladder operation. Then she had a knee replacement, and that led a severe infection and more surgery. She’s still on medical leave, uncertain if or when she’ll be able to transfer.
“I regret in a way voting for Trump. I really do.” She is still fuming about his do-not-sell-your home remarks in Youngstown. “He promised that nobody was going to have to sell their homes. He said they [GM] were going to stay. That’s why I can’t vote for him this year.”
Her sister still strongly supports Trump. “She says she’s going to put a Trump sign in my yard, and I told her, no she’s not.
“My sister says, ‘You should be watching Fox News. You need to be watching Fox News.’ I really don’t have time. If I’m not at the doctor’s, I’m watching my grandkid.”
Vennetti is ambivalent about Biden. “I don’t really want to vote for him either,” she said.


theguardian--2020-10-29--Athletes and the US election: How a generation of stars got in the game

They put in the long hours , did all the heavy lifting , prepared like never before – and all in anticipation for the biggest contest of the year : The one on 3 November .
That day , election day , is now less than a week away .
Already , votes have been cast by a record 66 million-plus Americans , an astonishing draw that once seemed unfathomable during a pandemic .
And while much of that sense of urgency stems from the 2020 presidential race – truly a life or death vote , in light of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ purpose was shaped in no small part by the activism in sports .
“ Because of everything that ’ s going on , people are finally starting to listen to us , ” LeBron James told the New York Times in June .
“ We feel like we ’ re finally getting a foot in the door.
” The big push started in March , with people the world over breaking quarantine to protest systemic anti-black racism in the wake of George Floyd ’ s unlawful killing in May at the hands of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ idle dribblers wondered if an on-court comeback might steal focus .
In the end they did return but with assurances that social justice would become more centered in the overall spectacle .
Hence how Black Lives Matter landed on NBA and WNBA courts and jerseys , and voter registration became the focus of recurring league PSAs .
And when protests erupted again after Kenosha police shot Jacob Blake within an inch of his life three months later and the Milwaukee Bucks walked off of a play-off game and triggered a two-day sports blackout @ @ @ @ @ @ @ won from their NBA partners was a pledge to convert some 20-odd league arenas into polling places in response to Donald Trump ’ s attempts to suppress and undermine in-person and mail-in balloting .
Last Saturday , on the first ever day of early voting in New York state , thousands of masked Manhattanites wrapped the streets and avenues around Madison Square Garden , with some waiting as long as five hours to cast their ballots .
The scene was similar , if a bit more brisk , at the Golden 1 Center @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in Charlotte .
That a team owned by someone as famously apolitical as Michael Jordan could have a hand in this historic election turnout is a welcome twist .
The kicker : he ’ s also written $ 2.5m-worth of checks to fight black voter suppression as part of a 10-year , $ 100m pledge to beat systemic racism – the clearest indicator yet of his evolution away from the neutral pitchman who hawked so many sneakers and colors of Gatorade in the ‘ 90s .
“ We understand that one of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is at the polls , ” he said in a July statement .
“ We know it will take time for us to create the change we want to see , but we are working quickly to take action for the Black Community ’ s voice to be heard.
” Still , you wonder if Jordan would ’ ve ever had such courage in his newfound convictions if James wasn ’ t giving as good as he gets from his critic-in-chief in the Oval Office in between weighing in on social justice issues @ @ @ @ @ @ @ leading the Lakers to an NBA championship , he was huddling with a group of prominent athletes and entertainers to launch More Than a Vote , an organization aimed at informing , protecting and turning out Black voters .
When it comes to more acute impact , however , James and co have nothing on his female counterparts .
When one of its owners , Kelly Loeffler , the junior Republican US senator from Georgia who owns half of the WNBA ’ s Atlanta Dream , took to the airwaves this past summer @ @ @ @ @ @ @ league for dedicating its season to the movement , players from her team and the opposing Phoenix Mercury took to the court before a nationally televised game in black T-shirts endorsing her Democratic opponent Raphael Warnock , leader of the Atlanta Baptist church where Martin Luther King once pastored .
The shirts quickly came into vogue league-wide .
Within two days , Warnock ’ s campaign announced a $ 183,000 fundraising windfall – which helped launch a TV ad onslaught .
In the last month Warnock has gone from polling slightly ahead of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ % – which is right where he would have to be to avoid a January runoff .
“ It was one of many turning points in the campaign , ” Warnock told USA Today Sports of the WNBA players ’ endorsement .
Nneka Ogwumike , the Los Angeles Sparks MVP forward and Player Association president , called it something else : “ My favorite moment of the summer.
” That a group of athletes could be as persuasive in the political arena as they are commercially shouldn ’ t come as a surprise @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a study into this very phenomenon this year and have already found the impact on political views of local and national matters to be significant , citing Colin Kaepernick ’ s hard-fought success in moving the needle on police reform as one example .
“ They ’ re influencing people to watch them , ” said Betina Wilkinson , an associate professor of political science on the study .
“ They ’ re influencing people to buy the products that they ’ re selling , but then also now they have the ability @ @ @ @ @ @ @ issues regarding race such as immigration and criminal justice reform.
” Meanwhile , the majority of respondents to a recent Politico study said Kaepernick ’ s activism inspired them to vote in a local , state or national election – and that ’ s with Kaepernick saying he didn ’ t vote in the 2016 election .
Gone are the days when an athlete ’ s impact on the democratic process was mostly incidental .
You remember those “ studies ” : the gubernatorial race that was actually decided by a college football @ @ @ @ @ @ @ foretold by the “ Redskin Rule ” .
Or the Super Bowl result .
Or the Bears-Colts game .
These days , you ’ d be hard-pressed to turn on an NFL game without the Texans ’ Deshaun Watson , Saints ’ Cam Jordan and Seahawks coach Pete Carroll belittling the fact that only 60 % of Americans voted in the 2016 presidential election as they encourage you to register to vote .
For a league that oozes conservatism and genuflected to the president , whose demented causes aren ’ t helped by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ well be the equivalent of dumping tea into Boston Harbor .
Even college football plays against type .
Just last month , the NCAA ’ s Division I Council called for a blackout on practices and games on election day .
All the while , athletic departments from Cal State LA to Yale have held registration drives with the goal of signing up all of their eligible athletes .
Clearly , we are now well past the era of athletes voting their bank accounts .
Turns out , the money only goes so @ @ @ @ @ @ @ them the inconvenience of being black or gay in America or otherwise labeled as different .
So it figures that when their backs were against the wall , they banded closer together and found a collective resolve .
That their impact can already be felt this far away from election day goes to show the hold athletes had on us all along .
What ’ s more , that handle can only get tighter with more practice and progress in the years ahead .

They put in the long hours, did all the heavy lifting, prepared like never before – and all in anticipation for the biggest contest of the year: The one on 3 November.
That day, election day, is now less than a week away. Already, votes have been cast by a record 66 million-plus Americans, an astonishing draw that once seemed unfathomable during a pandemic. And while much of that sense of urgency stems from the 2020 presidential race – truly a life or death vote, in light of the ravages of Covid – the sense of purpose was shaped in no small part by the activism in sports. “Because of everything that’s going on, people are finally starting to listen to us,” LeBron James told the New York Times in June. “We feel like we’re finally getting a foot in the door.”
The big push started in March, with people the world over breaking quarantine to protest systemic anti-black racism in the wake of George Floyd’s unlawful killing in May at the hands of Minneapolis police. Meanwhile, scores of idle dribblers wondered if an on-court comeback might steal focus. In the end they did return but with assurances that social justice would become more centered in the overall spectacle. Hence how Black Lives Matter landed on NBA and WNBA courts and jerseys, and voter registration became the focus of recurring league PSAs. And when protests erupted again after Kenosha police shot Jacob Blake within an inch of his life three months later and the Milwaukee Bucks walked off of a play-off game and triggered a two-day sports blackout, one of the biggest concessions they won from their NBA partners was a pledge to convert some 20-odd league arenas into polling places in response to Donald Trump’s attempts to suppress and undermine in-person and mail-in balloting.
Last Saturday, on the first ever day of early voting in New York state, thousands of masked Manhattanites wrapped the streets and avenues around Madison Square Garden, with some waiting as long as five hours to cast their ballots. The scene was similar, if a bit more brisk, at the Golden 1 Center in Sacramento and at the Spectrum Center in Charlotte. That a team owned by someone as famously apolitical as Michael Jordan could have a hand in this historic election turnout is a welcome twist.
The kicker: he’s also written $2.5m-worth of checks to fight black voter suppression as part of a 10-year, $100m pledge to beat systemic racism – the clearest indicator yet of his evolution away from the neutral pitchman who hawked so many sneakers and colors of Gatorade in the ‘90s. “We understand that one of the main ways we can change systemic racism is at the polls,” he said in a July statement. “We know it will take time for us to create the change we want to see, but we are working quickly to take action for the Black Community’s voice to be heard.”
Still, you wonder if Jordan would’ve ever had such courage in his newfound convictions if James wasn’t giving as good as he gets from his critic-in-chief in the Oval Office in between weighing in on social justice issues in real time. As he was leading the Lakers to an NBA championship, he was huddling with a group of prominent athletes and entertainers to launch More Than a Vote, an organization aimed at informing, protecting and turning out Black voters.
When it comes to more acute impact, however, James and co have nothing on his female counterparts. When one of its owners, Kelly Loeffler, the junior Republican US senator from Georgia who owns half of the WNBA’s Atlanta Dream, took to the airwaves this past summer to disparage Black Lives Matter and the league for dedicating its season to the movement, players from her team and the opposing Phoenix Mercury took to the court before a nationally televised game in black T-shirts endorsing her Democratic opponent Raphael Warnock, leader of the Atlanta Baptist church where Martin Luther King once pastored.
The shirts quickly came into vogue league-wide. Within two days, Warnock’s campaign announced a $183,000 fundraising windfall – which helped launch a TV ad onslaught. In the last month Warnock has gone from polling slightly ahead of Loeffler at 31% to above 50% – which is right where he would have to be to avoid a January runoff. “It was one of many turning points in the campaign,” Warnock told USA Today Sports of the WNBA players’ endorsement. Nneka Ogwumike, the Los Angeles Sparks MVP forward and Player Association president, called it something else: “My favorite moment of the summer.”
That a group of athletes could be as persuasive in the political arena as they are commercially shouldn’t come as a surprise. Researchers at Wake Forest University launched a study into this very phenomenon this year and have already found the impact on political views of local and national matters to be significant, citing Colin Kaepernick’s hard-fought success in moving the needle on police reform as one example. “They’re influencing people to watch them,” said Betina Wilkinson, an associate professor of political science on the study. “They’re influencing people to buy the products that they’re selling, but then also now they have the ability to influence people’s views on issues regarding race such as immigration and criminal justice reform.” Meanwhile, the majority of respondents to a recent Politico study said Kaepernick’s activism inspired them to vote in a local, state or national election – and that’s with Kaepernick saying he didn’t vote in the 2016 election.
Gone are the days when an athlete’s impact on the democratic process was mostly incidental. You remember those “studies”: the gubernatorial race that was actually decided by a college football upset. The presidential election that was foretold by the “Redskin Rule”. Or the Super Bowl result. Or the Bears-Colts game.
These days, you’d be hard-pressed to turn on an NFL game without the Texans’ Deshaun Watson, Saints’ Cam Jordan and Seahawks coach Pete Carroll belittling the fact that only 60% of Americans voted in the 2016 presidential election as they encourage you to register to vote. For a league that oozes conservatism and genuflected to the president, whose demented causes aren’t helped by high voter turnout, this may as well be the equivalent of dumping tea into Boston Harbor. Even college football plays against type. Just last month, the NCAA’s Division I Council called for a blackout on practices and games on election day. All the while, athletic departments from Cal State LA to Yale have held registration drives with the goal of signing up all of their eligible athletes.
Clearly, we are now well past the era of athletes voting their bank accounts. Turns out, the money only goes so far. It didn’t spare them the inconvenience of being black or gay in America or otherwise labeled as different. So it figures that when their backs were against the wall, they banded closer together and found a collective resolve. That their impact can already be felt this far away from election day goes to show the hold athletes had on us all along. What’s more, that handle can only get tighter with more practice and progress in the years ahead.


theguardian--2020-10-29--The age of the elderly candidate: how two septuagenarians came to be running for president

“ I woke up and I felt good , ” Donald Trump told supporters at a campaign rally in Arizona , slamming the side of his lectern as he described hospitalisation with the coronavirus .
“ I said , ‘ Get me out of here ’ .
Boom !
Superman !
” As the US president mimed Clark Kent ripping up open his shirt to reveal the Man of Steel ’ s “ S ” logo , the crowd chanted : “ Superman !
Superman !
Superman !
” The rally ended with loudspeakers booming Y.M.C.A by Village People : @ @ @ @ @ @ @ no need to feel down … ” Seventy-four years old and clinically obese , Trump appears eager to prove his virility .
He is fighting an election against a man who is even older – Joe Biden turns 78 next month .
If Biden wins , he will eclipse Trump ’ s own record as the oldest person to be sworn in as president .
The statistics are counterintuitive in a society that can often seem obsessed with youth .
Voters ’ thirst for change did not prevent this election being contested by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has fuelled debate over whether the mental and physical toll of old age could impair the decision-making of the person with the nuclear codes .
“ I hope there ’ s an age limit , ” Jimmy Carter , who at 96 is the longest lived US president in history , told an audience in Atlanta last year .
“ If I were just 80 years old , if I was 15 years younger , I don ’ t believe I could undertake the duties I experienced when I was president .
You @ @ @ @ @ @ @ one subject to another and concentrate on each one adequately and then put them together in a comprehensive way.
” Carter was 56 when he was beaten by Ronald Reagan , who at 69 was then the oldest person elected to the presidency .
Reagan endured a gentle decline over two terms and was sometimes mocked for memory lapses and self-contradictions .
Five years after leaving office he was diagnosed with Alzheimer ’ s disease .
Aware of the concerns , Biden ’ s campaign released a medical report last December saying he @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 77-year-old male , who is fit to successfully execute the duties of the presidency ” .
Trump , meanwhile , “ remains healthy ” according to the results of his latest physical exam , which the White House made public in June .
But the president has sought to weaponise the issue .
As the election draws near and he barnstorms the country at campaign rallies , he is making baseless claims that “ Sleepy Joe ” is suffering cognitive decline , senility or even dementia .
“ He ’ s mentally gone @ @ @ @ @ @ @ He also tweeted a meme that said “ Biden for resident , ” picturing the Democrat in a wheelchair seated among elderly people in a nursing home .
Biden responded in kind during an interview on CBS ’ s 60 Minutes programme last Sunday .
“ Hey , the same guy who thought that the 911 attack was a 7-Eleven attack , ” he said .
“ He ’ s talking about dementia ?
All I can say to the American people is watch me , is see what I ’ ve done @ @ @ @ @ @ @ going to do .
Look at me .
Compare our physical and mental acuity .
I ’ m happy to have that comparison.
” Critics have suggested that Trump ’ s crude tactics could be seen as insulting by elderly voters and backfire .
They also point to examples when the president slurs or uses the wrong word , and an incident when he walked gingerly down a ramp after speaking to West Point military cadets .
Trump ’ s age came under further scrutiny earlier this month when he was infected with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ elderly .
He made a speedy recovery but then said in a confusing video message : “ We ’ re taking care of our seniors .
You ’ re not vulnerable but they like to say you ’ re vulnerable .
You ’ re the least vulnerable but for this one thing , you are vulnerable .
So am I.
” It is Biden , however , who is more historically unusual .
The last five Democratic presidents were John F Kennedy ( aged 43 on taking office ) , Lyndon Johnson ( @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Bill Clinton ( 46 ) and Barack Obama ( 47 ) .
For Republicans , Trump fits a more familiar pattern .
Wendy Schiller , a political science professor at Brown University in Providence , Rhode Island , said : “ He was by no means the first ‘ older ’ nominee from the GOP [ Grand Old Party ] ; Reagan was 69 , John McCain was 71 and Mitt Romney was 65 .
The Democratic candidates have trended younger as far back as JFK in 1960 , and they have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ after 1964 with candidates under the age of 55 .
“ The party presidential nominating system tends to produce nominees who are older because of the type of electoral political experience typically required of successful nominees and the networking that is involved with state party activists over time to win state primaries.
” The nominees ’ seniority in years raised the stakes in the recent vice-presidential debate between Mike Pence , 61 , and Kamala Harris , who has since turned 56 .
Both candidates were asked whether they had discussed with their @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ; both avoided giving a direct answer .
Schiller added : “ Americans are living longer than ever , and in better shape , so Joe Biden at 77 may very well be in better shape than Ronald Reagan was at 69 .
Donald Trump has proven to be a vigorous campaigner out on the road at the age of 74 .
“ However , I do think that in Biden ’ s case , as it was with John McCain , the VP choice carries more weight than it would if he @ @ @ @ @ @ @ account the fact that the VP could step in to serve as president.
” Trump and Biden are old politicians in American terms but not in global terms .
Winston Churchill was 76 when he was reelected as British prime minister in 1951 and the Queen is the world ’ s oldest head of state at 94 .
She is followed by Raúl Castro of Cuba at 89 , Colville Young of Belize at 87 , Cameroonian president Paul Biya at 87 and Lebanese president Michel Aoun at 85 , according to Wikipedia @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sit on the highest court until death .
Drexel Heard , the youngest Black executive director of the Los Angeles County Democratic party , said : “ Ruth Bader Ginsburg was 87 and I think that people still respected her legal mind and everything she stood for .
She still had a few more years left on her and nobody questioned her fitness for the supreme court.
” Heard , 34 , added : “ I don ’ t think that age has been a big factor in this election but , in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ more and more younger candidates across the country run for office .
That ’ s the silver lining to a lot of that question , which is , what happens next ?
“ Joe Biden has always said he ’ s essentially a transitional president and he knows what ’ s coming up next .
That ’ s part of the reason why he chose Senator Harris as his running mate and certainly why he continues to endorse candidates up and down the ballot at a younger age.
” During the past two @ @ @ @ @ @ @ now 79 , showed that age is no barrier to campaigning hard or exciting young voters .
There are still questions over whether Biden can prove similarly inspiring but , among those in the demographic who do vote , there is little doubt he will crush Trump .
Coby Owens , 25 , a civil rights activist from Biden ’ s home city of Wilmington , Delaware , said : “ It was a difference between ideology when it came to the young people excited about Bernie and the young people who are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I think , at the end of the day , you ’ re seeing all the youth-led organisations coming together and coalition building for Biden .
“ One of the things that we know is that , regardless of where he stands on a policy right now , we have a better chance of getting what we want and what we need for our future with a President Biden and vice-president Harris rather than a President Trump and vice-president Pence.
” A more surprising shift is taking place at the other end of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ among the elderly by around 10 percentage points in the past four presidential elections .
But Covid-19 has hit this group especially hard – around four in five of the Americans killed by the virus are above 65 – and appears to have dragged down Trump ’ s popularity .
The president trails among elderly voters by more than 20 points , according to recent CNN and Wall Street Journal/ NBC News polls .
This swing could prove critical in states such as Arizona and Florida , which have a high number of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ investments in ads targeting older voters .
On a recent visit to The Villages retirement community in Florida , Trump claimed : “ Biden ’ s plan would mean America ’ s seniors have no air conditioning during the summer , no heat during the winter and no electricity during peak hours .
It ’ s true.
” It is not true .

Sign up for the Guardian’s First Thing newsletter
“I woke up and I felt good,” Donald Trump told supporters at a campaign rally in Arizona, slamming the side of his lectern as he described hospitalisation with the coronavirus. “I said, ‘Get me out of here’. Boom! Superman!”
As the US president mimed Clark Kent ripping up open his shirt to reveal the Man of Steel’s “S” logo, the crowd chanted: “Superman! Superman! Superman!” The rally ended with loudspeakers booming Y.M.C.A by Village People: “Young man, there’s no need to feel down …”
Seventy-four years old and clinically obese, Trump appears eager to prove his virility. He is fighting an election against a man who is even older – Joe Biden turns 78 next month. If Biden wins, he will eclipse Trump’s own record as the oldest person to be sworn in as president.
The statistics are counterintuitive in a society that can often seem obsessed with youth. Voters’ thirst for change did not prevent this election being contested by two septuagenarian white men. But it has fuelled debate over whether the mental and physical toll of old age could impair the decision-making of the person with the nuclear codes.
Former president Jimmy Carter, 96, is the longest-lived US president in history. Photograph: John Amis/AP
“I hope there’s an age limit,” Jimmy Carter, who at 96 is the longest-lived US president in history, told an audience in Atlanta last year. “If I were just 80 years old, if I was 15 years younger, I don’t believe I could undertake the duties I experienced when I was president. You have to be able to go from one subject to another and concentrate on each one adequately and then put them together in a comprehensive way.”
Carter was 56 when he was beaten by Ronald Reagan, who at 69 was then the oldest person elected to the presidency. Reagan endured a gentle decline over two terms and was sometimes mocked for memory lapses and self-contradictions. Five years after leaving office he was diagnosed with Alzheimer’s disease.
Ronald Reagan, at 69, was the oldest person elected to the presidency in 1980. Photograph: Chuck Robinson/AP
Aware of the concerns, Biden’s campaign released a medical report last December saying he is a “healthy, vigorous, 77-year-old male, who is fit to successfully execute the duties of the presidency”. Trump, meanwhile, “remains healthy” according to the results of his latest physical exam, which the White House made public in June.
But the president has sought to weaponise the issue. As the election draws near and he barnstorms the country at campaign rallies, he is making baseless claims that “Sleepy Joe” is suffering cognitive decline, senility or even dementia. “He’s mentally gone,” Trump told Fox News. He also tweeted a meme that said “Biden for resident”, picturing the Democrat in a wheelchair seated among elderly people in a nursing home.
Biden responded in kind during an interview on CBS’s 60 Minutes programme last Sunday. “Hey, the same guy who thought that the 911 attack was a 7-Eleven attack,” he said. “He’s talking about dementia? All I can say to the American people is watch me, is see what I’ve done, is see what I’m going to do. Look at me. Compare our physical and mental acuity. I’m happy to have that comparison.”
Critics have suggested that Trump’s crude tactics could be seen as insulting by elderly voters and backfire. They also point to examples when the president slurs or uses the wrong word, and an incident when he walked gingerly down a ramp after speaking to West Point military cadets.
Donald Trump works in a conference room while receiving treatment for coronavirus. Photograph: Joyce N Boghosia/The White House/EPA
Trump’s age came under further scrutiny earlier this month when he was infected with the coronavirus, which severely affects the elderly. He made a speedy recovery but then said in a confusing video message: “We’re taking care of our seniors. You’re not vulnerable but they like to say you’re vulnerable. You’re the least vulnerable but for this one thing, you are vulnerable. So am I.”
It is Biden, however, who is more historically unusual. The last five Democratic presidents were John F Kennedy (aged 43 on taking office), Lyndon Johnson (55), Carter (52), Bill Clinton (46) and Barack Obama (47). For Republicans, Trump fits a more familiar pattern.
Wendy Schiller, a political science professor at Brown University in Providence, Rhode Island, said: “He was by no means the first ‘older’ nominee from the GOP [Grand Old Party]; Reagan was 69, John McCain was 71 and Mitt Romney was 65. The Democratic candidates have trended younger as far back as JFK in 1960, and they have only been successful at winning the presidency after 1964 with candidates under the age of 55.
“The party presidential nominating system tends to produce nominees who are older because of the type of electoral political experience typically required of successful nominees and the networking that is involved with state party activists over time to win state primaries.”
The nominees’ seniority in years raised the stakes in the recent vice-presidential debate between Mike Pence, 61, and Kamala Harris, who has since turned 56. Both candidates were asked whether they had discussed with their respective nominees the question of presidential incapacity; both avoided giving a direct answer.
Schiller added: “Americans are living longer than ever, and in better shape, so Joe Biden at 77 may very well be in better shape than Ronald Reagan was at 69. Donald Trump has proven to be a vigorous campaigner out on the road at the age of 74.
Joe Biden bounds up the steps of a plane in Delaware. Photograph: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images
“However, I do think that in Biden’s case, as it was with John McCain, the VP choice carries more weight than it would if he were younger because voters are taking into account the fact that the VP could step in to serve as president.”
Trump and Biden are old politicians in American terms but not in global terms. Winston Churchill was 76 when he was re-elected as British prime minister in 1951 and the Queen is the world’s oldest head of state at 94. She is followed by Raúl Castro of Cuba at 89, Colville Young of Belize at 87, the Cameroonian president, Paul Biya, at 87 and the Lebanese president, Michel Aoun, at 85, according to Wikipedia. US supreme court justices continue to sit on the highest court until death.
Drexel Heard, the youngest Black executive director of the Los Angeles county Democratic party, said: “Ruth Bader Ginsburg was 87 and I think that people still respected her legal mind and everything she stood for. She still had a few more years left on her and nobody questioned her fitness for the supreme court.”
Heard, 34, added: “I don’t think that age has been a big factor in this election but, in down-ballot races, we are seeing more and more younger candidates across the country run for office. That’s the silver lining to a lot of that question, which is, what happens next?
“Joe Biden has always said he’s essentially a transitional president and he knows what’s coming up next. That’s part of the reason why he chose Senator Harris as his running mate and certainly why he continues to endorse candidates up and down the ballot at a younger age.”
Senator Bernie Sanders, 79, showed that age is no barrier to campaigning. Photograph: Nicole Hester/AP
During the past two Democratic primary cycles Senator Bernie Sanders, now 79, showed that age is no barrier to campaigning hard or exciting young voters. There are still questions over whether Biden can prove similarly inspiring but, among those in the demographic who do vote, there is little doubt he will crush Trump.
Coby Owens, 25, a civil rights activist from Biden’s home city of Wilmington, Delaware, said: “It was a difference between ideology when it came to the young people excited about Bernie and the young people who are excited about a Biden campaign. But I think, at the end of the day, you’re seeing all the youth-led organisations coming together and coalition-building for Biden.
“One of the things that we know is that, regardless of where he stands on a policy right now, we have a better chance of getting what we want and what we need for our future with a President Biden and Vice-President Harris rather than a President Trump and Vice-President Pence.”
A more surprising shift is taking place at the other end of the age spectrum. Republicans have led among the elderly by around 10 percentage points in the past four presidential elections. But Covid-19 has hit this group especially hard – about four in five of the Americans killed by the virus are above 65 – and appears to have dragged down Trump’s popularity.
The president trails among elderly voters by more than 20 points, according to recent CNN and Wall Street Journal/ NBC News polls. This swing could prove critical in states such as Arizona and Florida, which have a high number of retirees. Both campaigns are making huge investments in ads targeting older voters.
On a recent visit to The Villages retirement community in Florida, Trump claimed: “Biden’s plan would mean America’s seniors have no air conditioning during the summer, no heat during the winter and no electricity during peak hours. It’s true.” It is not true.


theguardian--2020-10-29--Investors should prepare for worst over US presidential election

Opinion polls in the US have long pointed to the strong possibility of a Democratic party sweep in the election on 3 November , with Joe Biden winning the presidency and Democrats gaining control of the US Senate and holding on to the House of Representatives , putting an end to divided government .
But if the election turns out to be mostly a referendum on Donald Trump , Democrats might win just the White House while failing to retake the Senate .
And one can not rule out the possibility of Donald Trump navigating a narrow path to an @ @ @ @ @ @ @ holding on to the Senate , thus reproducing the status quo .
More ominous is the prospect of a long-contested result , with both sides refusing to concede as they wage ugly legal and political battles in the courts , through the media , and on the streets .
In the contested 2000 election , it took until 12 December for the matter to be decided : the supreme court ruled in favour of George W Bush , and his Democratic opponent , Al Gore , gracefully conceded .
Rattled by the political @ @ @ @ @ @ @ period fell by more than 7 % .
This time , the uncertainty could last for much longer – perhaps even months – implying serious risks for the markets .
This nightmare scenario must be taken seriously , even if it currently seems unlikely .
While Biden has consistently led in the polls , so , too , had Hillary Clinton on the eve of the 2016 election .
It remains to be seen if there will be a slight surge in “ shy ” swing-state Trump voters who are unwilling to reveal @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , as in 2016 , massive disinformation campaigns ( foreign and domestic ) are under way .
US authorities have warned that Russia , China , Iran and other hostile foreign powers are actively trying to influence the election and cast doubt on the legitimacy of the balloting process .
Trolls and bots are flooding social media with conspiracy theories , fake news , deep fakes and misinformation .
Trump and some of his fellow Republicans have embraced lunatic conspiracy theories such as QAnon and signalled their tacit support of white supremacist groups @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and other public officials are openly deploying dirty tricks to suppress the votes of Democratic-leaning cohorts .
On top of all this , Trump has repeatedly claimed – falsely – that mail-in ballots can not be trusted , because he anticipates that Democrats will comprise a disproportionate share of those not voting in person ( as a pandemic-era precaution ) .
He also has refused to say that he will relinquish power if he loses and has instead given a wink and a nod to right-wing militias ( “ stand back and stand @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sowing chaos in the streets and plotting acts of domestic terrorism .
If Trump loses and resorts to claiming that the election was rigged , violence and civil strife could be highly likely .
Indeed , if the initial reported results on election night do not immediately indicate a sweep for the Democrats , Trump would almost certainly declare victory in battleground states before all mail-in ballots have been counted .
Republican operatives already have plans to suspend the counting in key states by challenging such ballots ’ validity .
They will be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ capitals , local and federal courts stacked with Trump-appointed judges , a supreme court with a 6-3 conservative majority and a House of Representatives where , in the event of an electoral college draw , Republicans hold the majority of state delegations .
At the same time , all of the white armed militias currently “ standing by ” could take to the streets to foment violence and chaos .
The goal would be to provoke leftist counterviolence , giving Trump a pretext to invoke the Insurrection Act and deploy federal law enforcement @ @ @ @ @ @ @ law and order ” ( as he has previously threatened to do ) .
With this endgame apparently in mind , the Trump administration has already designated several major Democratic-led cities as “ anarchist hubs ” that may need to be put down .
In other words , Trump and his cronies have made clear that they will use any means necessary to steal the election ; and , given the wide range of tools at the executive branch ’ s disposal , they could succeed if early election results are close , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
To be sure , if early results on election night show Biden with a strong lead even in traditionally Republican states such as North Carolina , Florida or Texas , Trump would find it much harder to contest the result for more than a few days , and he would concede sooner .
The problem is that anything short of a clear Biden landslide will leave an opening for Trump ( and the foreign governments supporting him ) to muddy the waters with chaos and disinformation as they manoeuvre to shift the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as the courts .
This degree of political instability could trigger a major risk-off episode in financial markets at a time when the economy is already slowing and the near-term prospects for additional policy stimulus remain grim .
If an election dispute drags on – perhaps into early next year – stock prices could fall by as much as 10 % , government bond yields would decline ( though they are already quite low ) , and the global flight to safety would push gold prices higher .
Usually in this type of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ but , because this particular episode would have been triggered by US-based political chaos , capital might actually flee from the dollar , leaving it weaker .
One thing is certain : a highly contested election would cause further damage to the US ’ s global image as an exemplar of democracy and the rule of law , eroding its soft power .
Particularly over the past four years , the country has increasingly come to be regarded as a political mess .
While hoping that the chaotic outcomes outlined above do not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a strong lead for Biden – investors should be preparing for the worst , not only on election day but in the weeks and months thereafter .
• Nouriel Roubini is professor of economics at New York University ’ s Stern School of Business .
He has worked for the International Monetary Fund , the US Federal Reserve and the World Bank .

Opinion polls in the US have long pointed to the strong possibility of a Democratic party sweep in the election on 3 November, with Joe Biden winning the presidency and Democrats gaining control of the US Senate and holding on to the House of Representatives, putting an end to divided government.
But if the election turns out to be mostly a referendum on Donald Trump, Democrats might win just the White House while failing to retake the Senate. And one cannot rule out the possibility of Donald Trump navigating a narrow path to an electoral college victory, and of Republicans holding on to the Senate, thus reproducing the status quo.
More ominous is the prospect of a long-contested result, with both sides refusing to concede as they wage ugly legal and political battles in the courts, through the media, and on the streets. In the contested 2000 election, it took until 12 December for the matter to be decided: the supreme court ruled in favour of George W Bush, and his Democratic opponent, Al Gore, gracefully conceded. Rattled by the political uncertainty, the stock market during this period fell by more than 7%. This time, the uncertainty could last for much longer – perhaps even months – implying serious risks for the markets.
This nightmare scenario must be taken seriously, even if it currently seems unlikely. While Biden has consistently led in the polls, so, too, had Hillary Clinton on the eve of the 2016 election. It remains to be seen if there will be a slight surge in “shy” swing-state Trump voters who are unwilling to reveal their true preferences to pollsters.
Moreover, as in 2016, massive disinformation campaigns (foreign and domestic) are under way. US authorities have warned that Russia, China, Iran and other hostile foreign powers are actively trying to influence the election and cast doubt on the legitimacy of the balloting process. Trolls and bots are flooding social media with conspiracy theories, fake news, deep fakes and misinformation. Trump and some of his fellow Republicans have embraced lunatic conspiracy theories such as QAnon and signalled their tacit support of white supremacist groups. In many Republican-controlled states, governors and other public officials are openly deploying dirty tricks to suppress the votes of Democratic-leaning cohorts.
On top of all this, Trump has repeatedly claimed – falsely – that mail-in ballots cannot be trusted, because he anticipates that Democrats will comprise a disproportionate share of those not voting in person (as a pandemic-era precaution). He also has refused to say that he will relinquish power if he loses and has instead given a wink and a nod to right-wing militias (“stand back and stand by”) that have already been sowing chaos in the streets and plotting acts of domestic terrorism. If Trump loses and resorts to claiming that the election was rigged, violence and civil strife could be highly likely.
Indeed, if the initial reported results on election night do not immediately indicate a sweep for the Democrats, Trump would almost certainly declare victory in battleground states before all mail-in ballots have been counted. Republican operatives already have plans to suspend the counting in key states by challenging such ballots’ validity. They will be waging these legal battles in Republican-controlled state capitals, local and federal courts stacked with Trump-appointed judges, a supreme court with a 6-3 conservative majority and a House of Representatives where, in the event of an electoral college draw, Republicans hold the majority of state delegations.
At the same time, all of the white armed militias currently “standing by” could take to the streets to foment violence and chaos. The goal would be to provoke leftist counterviolence, giving Trump a pretext to invoke the Insurrection Act and deploy federal law enforcement or the US military to restore “law and order” (as he has previously threatened to do). With this endgame apparently in mind, the Trump administration has already designated several major Democratic-led cities as “anarchist hubs” that may need to be put down. In other words, Trump and his cronies have made clear that they will use any means necessary to steal the election; and, given the wide range of tools at the executive branch’s disposal, they could succeed if early election results are close, rather than showing a clear Biden sweep.
Sign up to the daily Business Today email or follow Guardian Business on Twitter at @BusinessDesk
To be sure, if early results on election night show Biden with a strong lead even in traditionally Republican states such as North Carolina, Florida or Texas, Trump would find it much harder to contest the result for more than a few days, and he would concede sooner. The problem is that anything short of a clear Biden landslide will leave an opening for Trump (and the foreign governments supporting him) to muddy the waters with chaos and disinformation as they manoeuvre to shift the final decision to more sympathetic venues such as the courts.
This degree of political instability could trigger a major risk-off episode in financial markets at a time when the economy is already slowing and the near-term prospects for additional policy stimulus remain grim. If an election dispute drags on – perhaps into early next year – stock prices could fall by as much as 10%, government bond yields would decline (though they are already quite low), and the global flight to safety would push gold prices higher. Usually in this type of scenario the US dollar would strengthen; but, because this particular episode would have been triggered by US-based political chaos, capital might actually flee from the dollar, leaving it weaker.
One thing is certain: a highly contested election would cause further damage to the US’s global image as an exemplar of democracy and the rule of law, eroding its soft power. Particularly over the past four years, the country has increasingly come to be regarded as a political mess. While hoping that the chaotic outcomes outlined above do not come to pass – polls still show a strong lead for Biden – investors should be preparing for the worst, not only on election day but in the weeks and months thereafter.
Nouriel Roubini is professor of economics at New York University’s Stern School of Business. He has worked for the International Monetary Fund, the US Federal Reserve and the World Bank.
© Project Syndicate


theguardian--2020-10-29--God and the GOP: will conservative evangelicals stay loyal to Trump? – video

In 2016 , white evangelicals made up a quarter of all US voters .
And 81 % of them voted @ @ @ @ @ Laughland and Tom Silverstone head to the pivotal battleground state of North Carolina to see @ @ @ @ @ is showing signs of crumbling .
They meet extreme evangelical pastors , travelling progressive preachers @ @ @ @ @ Rev William Barber • Watch other episodes of the Anywhere but Washington video series

Oliver Laughland Tom Silverstone, Noah Payne-Frank, Charlie Phillips and Katie Lamborn

In 2016, white evangelicals made up a quarter of all US voters. And 81% of them voted for Donald Trump. Oliver Laughland and Tom Silverstone head to the pivotal battleground state of North Carolina to see if Trump's religious base is showing signs of crumbling. They meet extreme evangelical pastors, travelling progressive preachers and the moral movement leader Rev William Barber