theguardian--2020-07-31--The Guardian view on delaying elections: it's what autocrats do | Editorial

Postponing elections is what autocracies do .
On Friday , Hong Kong ’ s leader , Carrie Lam , announced a delay to September ’ s planned legislative council ( LegCo ) elections .
Ms Lam cited the coronavirus public health emergency as her justification .
Yet the real reason is Hong Kong ’ s political emergency .
Hong Kong ’ s elections have been postponed because even with its very limited democracy , Ms Lam and the Chinese government are afraid the voters will choose a LegCo with greater sympathy for the protests .
In spite of their very @ @ @ @ @ @ @ reasons for proposing the postponement of November ’ s US presidential election are essentially the same .
Mr Trump also cites the pandemic .
But his real motives are also political .
He thinks he is losing the campaign .
He thinks Joe Biden will be elected in November .
He wants to stop him if he can , by fair means or foul .
And he wants to discredit his own defeat .
Yet , there are significant differences between the two cases , which need to be understood .
These make @ @ @ @ @ @ @ respects even more sinister .
There is nothing in the US constitution that permits the president to postpone an election .
The date is fixed by law .
Such a change would require an act of both houses of Congress , so it is not going to happen .
Even Republicans admit this .
In any event , a postponement would not allow Mr Trump to continue in office beyond January 2021 .
The US has held elections in difficult times before .
In 1864 , it conducted one at the height of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , it conducted another while war raged in Europe and the Pacific .
And in 1918 , during one of the worst phases of the Spanish flu pandemic at the end of the first world war , it conducted a third .
There is absolutely no reason why the US should treat the Covid-19 pandemic any differently .
Democracy demands it .
As there will be no postponement , why then did Mr Trump take the extreme and extraordinary step this week of suggesting that there should be ?
The reasons go far @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of defeat , real though that now is .
And they are deeply sinister .
America does not just have a deep tradition of democratic elections .
It also has a deep tradition , dating from the foundation of the republic , of trying to stop black Americans from participating in them .
In recent years this has taken the form of systematic purging of voter rolls , imposing tough identity checks to register and vote , restricting early and absentee voting , and disenfranchising current and former prisoners .
All these and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by Republican state legislators .
Mr Trump is trying to mobilise these forces to fight dirty on his behalf .
He is doing so on the basis of race at precisely the time when America has been galvanised by the Black Lives Matter campaign .
He is also doing it to distract from his terrible failings .
More than 150,000 Americans have died of Covid-19 .
The US economy has collapsed by 33 % since April .
But Mr Trump is also challenging democracy itself .
The election , he said this week @ @ @ @ @ @ @ crooked .
Mr Trump is knowingly stoking the fears of many of his supporters that only a mobilisation on the basis of race , potentially with very violent means , will prevent his defeat .
He is preparing the ground for a defiance of the result , and preparing to deny legitimacy to his potential successor .
It has the potential to be the most destructive act of this already uniquely dystopian presidency .
Even at this late hour , it is a defining moment for the entire Republican party .

Postponing elections is what autocracies do. On Friday, Hong Kong’s leader, Carrie Lam, announced a delay to September’s planned legislative council (LegCo) elections. Ms Lam cited the coronavirus public health emergency as her justification. Yet the real reason is Hong Kong’s political emergency. Hong Kong’s elections have been postponed because even with its very limited democracy, Ms Lam and the Chinese government are afraid the voters will choose a LegCo with greater sympathy for the protests.
In spite of their very different systems, Donald Trump’s reasons for proposing the postponement of November’s US presidential election are essentially the same. Mr Trump also cites the pandemic. But his real motives are also political. He thinks he is losing the campaign. He thinks Joe Biden will be elected in November. He wants to stop him if he can, by fair means or foul. And he wants to discredit his own defeat.
Yet, there are significant differences between the two cases, which need to be understood. These make Mr Trump’s move in some respects even more sinister. There is nothing in the US constitution that permits the president to postpone an election. The date is fixed by law. Such a change would require an act of both houses of Congress, so it is not going to happen. Even Republicans admit this. In any event, a postponement would not allow Mr Trump to continue in office beyond January 2021.
The US has held elections in difficult times before. In 1864, it conducted one at the height of the American civil war. In 1944, it conducted another while war raged in Europe and the Pacific. And in 1918, during one of the worst phases of the Spanish flu pandemic at the end of the first world war, it conducted a third. There is absolutely no reason why the US should treat the Covid-19 pandemic any differently. Democracy demands it.
As there will be no postponement, why then did Mr Trump take the extreme and extraordinary step this week of suggesting that there should be? The reasons go far beyond conventional partisan rivalries and his fear of defeat, real though that now is. And they are deeply sinister. America does not just have a deep tradition of democratic elections. It also has a deep tradition, dating from the foundation of the republic, of trying to stop black Americans from participating in them. In recent years this has taken the form of systematic purging of voter rolls, imposing tough identity checks to register and vote, restricting early and absentee voting, and disenfranchising current and former prisoners. All these and more are practised on an industrial scale by Republican state legislators.
Mr Trump is trying to mobilise these forces to fight dirty on his behalf. He is doing so on the basis of race at precisely the time when America has been galvanised by the Black Lives Matter campaign. He is also doing it to distract from his terrible failings. More than 150,000 Americans have died of Covid-19. The US economy has collapsed by an annual rate of 33% since April.
But Mr Trump is also challenging democracy itself. The election, he said this week, could be fraudulent, inaccurate and crooked. Mr Trump is knowingly stoking the fears of many of his supporters that only a mobilisation on the basis of race, potentially with very violent means, will prevent his defeat. He is preparing the ground for a defiance of the result, and preparing to deny legitimacy to his potential successor. It has the potential to be the most destructive act of this already uniquely dystopian presidency. Even at this late hour, it is a defining moment for the entire Republican party.


theguardian--2020-07-31--Who will choose the next US president – the American people, or Facebook? | Jonathan Freedland

This week , in a hearing on Capitol Hill , you could gaze upon the men with the power to determine November ’ s presidential election and the future of American democracy – but the men in question were not politicians .
Rather they were the four tech titans who appeared by Zoom before a congressional committee .
Even via video link , the power radiated from them : the heads of Facebook , Google , Amazon and Apple loomed from the monitors as veritable masters of the universe , their elected questioners mere earthlings .
That hardly exaggerates their @ @ @ @ @ @ @ their users numbered in the billions , Facebook and Google determine much of what the human race sees , reads and knows .
Mark Zuckerberg ’ s writ runs across the planet , no single government is able to constrain him : he is an emperor of knowledge , a minister of information for the entire world .
A mere tweak of an algorithm by Facebook can decide whether lies , hate and conspiracy theories spread or shrivel .
That ’ s been true for a while , but in 2020 it ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ know the impact social media had in the US election in 2016 – when ever wilder fictions and fantasies were allowed to proliferate about Hillary Clinton and when , according to the Oxford scholar Philip Howard in a new book , Lie Machines : “ There was a one-to-one ratio of junk news to professional news shared by voters over Twitter.
” In fewer than 100 days Americans will choose a president , and there are no guarantees that the same thing will not happen again .
What ’ s more , it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ spread of falsehoods is a matter of life and death .
( They knew that already in Myanmar , where the violence against the Rohingya people was incited on Facebook . )
In the midst of a pandemic , solid , verified information is an essential tool of public health .
If bogus claims and unhinged conspiracy theories – like those aired in a pseudo-documentary such as Plandemic – land in people ’ s news feeds , it ’ s as if the water supply has become contaminated .
Eventually Facebook and YouTube @ @ @ @ @ @ @ assertions that Covid-19 is the fault of Bill Gates and the World Health Organization , that vaccines are bad and that wearing a mask is dangerous , but not before millions had ingested that garbage on those platforms .
Of course , cranks and fantasists have been with us forever , but social media has given them a reach they could never have dreamed of .
Armed with Facebook , the would-be propagandist can distribute messages globally and instantly and , at the same time , deliver them to a precisely selected audience @ @ @ @ @ @ @ holds on its users , the use of which allows ads to be micro-targeted for a price .
And remember , this data isn ’ t limited to the attitudes you might have expressed online , but could include the purchases you ’ ve made on your credit card , even the mundane details of your life , as recorded by the gadgets that comprise the internet of things .
Occasionally the social media behemoths are compelled to take at least the appearance of action , if only for the sake of managing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ week , with the eventual removal of grime artist Wiley from multiple platforms after he went on an extended , hate-filled rant against Jews : after a 48-hour “ walkout ” from Twitter , organised by an ad-hoc group of activists and celebrities , the network appeared to realise hosting high-profile racism isn ’ t a good look .
Today , Twitter removed the account of white supremacist David Duke , which prompts the question : what on earth took you so long ?
Make no mistake , the presence of lies and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ regrettable bug .
It is a feature .
The business model for social media requires attention – eyeballs – and the best way to get that is engagement .
Messages that stir anger , fury and yes , hate , keep people online more effectively than content that is merely interesting or amusing .
It ’ s why studies show that false news spreads faster than true news : the algorithms are designed to favour virality over veracity .
What can be done ?
There ’ s no shortage of ideas .
Some @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , after the 2016 election , Facebook took steps in that direction .
But when it emerged that one of its fact-checking partners was Daily Caller , a rightwing news website known for pushing misinformation , the scheme ’ s credibility plunged .
Or , more simply , Facebook , YouTube and Twitter could admit that of course they are publishers and they should therefore take the responsibility that goes with the mighty power they have .
If that means hiring a million moderators to check their content , weeding out lies and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ They can hardly cry poverty : these are close to trillion-dollar companies .
If they don ’ t like the analogy with publishers , then perhaps they ’ d rather be treated like , say , car manufacturers , who , if found to be delivering a dangerously faulty product , have to recall and fix that product , regardless of the expense .
At the moment , the social media giants enjoy legal protection from such liability in the US .
Politicians could change that , just as they could follow Howard @ @ @ @ @ @ @ break the big companies ’ “ monopolisation of information ” by legislating a citizens ’ right to donate their own data to smaller organisations : that way such groups would be more able to compete with the tech giants and those able to pay for their services .
But , as this week ’ s hearing proved , elected representatives are not powerful enough to do that alone .
They ’ d have to work together , governments across the globe .
They ’ d need the backing of advertisers , withdrawing their @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a platform to hate .
And they ’ d need all of us to declare we ’ re sick of this poison in the information bloodstream , and we won ’ t rest till it ’ s drained away .

This week, in a hearing on Capitol Hill, you could gaze upon the men with the power to determine November’s presidential election and the future of American democracy – but the men in question were not politicians. Rather they were the four tech titans who appeared before a congressional committee. Even via video link, the power radiated from them: the heads of Facebook, Google, Amazon and Apple loomed from the monitors as veritable masters of the universe, their elected questioners mere earthlings.
That hardly exaggerates their might. Between them, and with their users numbered in the billions, Facebook and Google determine much of what the human race sees, reads and knows. Mark Zuckerberg’s writ runs across the planet, no single government is able to constrain him: he is an emperor of knowledge, a minister of information for the entire world. A mere tweak of an algorithm by Facebook can decide whether lies, hate and conspiracy theories spread or shrivel.
That’s been true for a while, but in 2020 it’s gained an extra urgency. We know the impact social media had in the US election in 2016 – when ever wilder fictions and fantasies were allowed to proliferate about Hillary Clinton and when, according to the Oxford scholar Philip Howard in a new book, Lie Machines: “There was a one-to-one ratio of junk news to professional news shared by voters over Twitter.” In fewer than 100 days Americans will choose a president, and there are no guarantees that the same thing will not happen again.
What’s more, it’s now clear that the online spread of falsehoods is a matter of life and death. (They knew that already in Myanmar, where the violence against the Rohingya people was incited on Facebook.) In the midst of a pandemic, solid, verified information is an essential tool of public health. If bogus claims and unhinged conspiracy theories – like those aired in a pseudo-documentary such as Plandemic – land in people’s news feeds, it’s as if the water supply has become contaminated. Eventually Facebook and YouTube took down Plandemic, with its evidence-free assertions that Covid-19 is the fault of Bill Gates and the World Health Organization, that vaccines are bad and that wearing a mask is dangerous, but not before millions had ingested that garbage on those platforms.
Of course, cranks and fantasists have been with us forever, but social media has given them a reach they could never have dreamed of. Armed with Facebook, the would-be propagandist can distribute messages globally and instantly and, at the same time, deliver them to a precisely selected audience, thanks to the copious data Facebook holds on its users, the use of which allows ads to be micro-targeted for a price. And remember, this data isn’t limited to the attitudes you might have expressed online, but could include the purchases you’ve made on your credit card, even the mundane details of your life, as recorded by the gadgets that comprise the internet of things.
Occasionally the social media behemoths are compelled to take at least the appearance of action, if only for the sake of managing their own reputations. It happened this week, with the eventual removal of grime artist Wiley from multiple platforms after he went on an extended, hate-filled rant against Jews: after a 48-hour “walkout” from Twitter, organised by an ad-hoc group of activists and celebrities, the network appeared to realise hosting high-profile racism isn’t a good look. Today, Twitter removed the account of white supremacist David Duke, which prompts the question: what on earth took you so long?
Make no mistake, the presence of lies and hate on these platforms is not some regrettable bug. It is a feature. The business model for social media requires attention – eyeballs – and the best way to get that is engagement. Messages that stir anger, fury and yes, hate, keep people online more effectively than content that is merely interesting or amusing. It’s why studies show that false news spreads faster than true news: the algorithms are designed to favour virality over veracity.
What can be done? There’s no shortage of ideas. Some start with the demand for fact-checking and, after the 2016 election, Facebook took steps in that direction. But when it emerged that one of its fact-checking partners was Daily Caller, a rightwing news website known for pushing misinformation, the scheme’s credibility plunged.
Or, more simply, Facebook, YouTube and Twitter could admit that of course they are publishers and they should therefore take the responsibility that goes with the mighty power they have. If that means hiring a million moderators to check their content, weeding out lies and hate, then so be it. They can hardly cry poverty: these are close to trillion-dollar companies.
If they don’t like the analogy with publishers, then perhaps they’d rather be treated like, say, car manufacturers, who, if found to be delivering a dangerously faulty product, have to recall and fix that product, regardless of the expense. At the moment, the social media giants enjoy legal protection from such liability in the US.
Politicians could change that, just as they could follow Howard’s demands in Lie Machines and break the big companies’ “monopolisation of information” by legislating a citizens’ right to donate their own data to smaller organisations: that way such groups would be more able to compete with the tech giants and those able to pay for their services.
But, as this week’s hearing proved, elected representatives are not powerful enough to do that alone. They’d have to work together, governments across the globe. They’d need the backing of advertisers, withdrawing their pounds and dollars from companies that give a platform to hate. And they’d need all of us to declare we’re sick of this poison in the information bloodstream, and we won’t rest till it’s drained away.
Jonathan Freedland is a Guardian columnist


theguardian--2020-08-01--Why is a Silicon Valley billionaire trying to get an immigration hawk elected to the US Senate?

In usually deep-red Kansas , Democrats have the luxury of a sleepy primary contest for US Senate .
Republicans do not .
That ’ s because in the Democratic primary the Kansas state senator Barbara Bollier is the heavy favorite to win her party ’ s nomination and then run a competitive general election campaign fueled by a large war chest of cash .
That prospect is sharpened because Republicans are having to go through a bloody primary between the Kansas congressman Roger Marshall and former Kansas secretary of state Kris Kobach , the immigration hardliner and former Republican nominee @ @ @ @ @ @ @ win the nod – could hand the Democrats a vital Senate seat they would never normally hope to win .
Kobach ’ s candidacy is notable for its support from the billionaire Peter Thiel , the libertarian venture capitalist who has at times expressed the same type of hardline immigration stances as Kobach .
Thiel ’ s support for Kobach has flowed through a pro-Kobach Super Pac called the Freedom Forever Political Action Committee .
That support has allowed Kobach to effectively remain competitive with the more establishment-aligned Marshall .
It has also @ @ @ @ @ @ @ out their contentious primary right up until the election on 4 August rather than focus on their Democratic opponent .
Thiel ’ s support is not based on a longtime relationship with Kobach , despite comments by both of them that places them roughly in the same immigration hawk wing of the Republican party .
Rather , Thiel ’ s support for Kobach stems from Ann Coulter , who connected the two and helped host a 2019 fundraiser for Kobach featuring Thiel .
Other high-profile Republican donors such as Rebekah Mercer and Eric @ @ @ @ @ @ @ interacted in 2015 , according to Recode .
But Thiel really decided to support Kobach in 2019 after being pitched on supporting the pro-Kobach Super Pac , according to the Recode report .
“ Peter and Kris don ’ t actually know each other reasonably well , ” said one well-entrenched Kansas Republican operative .
“ Ann Coulter ’ s one of Peter ’ s best friends , and he kind of does whatever she tells him to.
” Thiel has poured over $ 850,000 into the race to support Kobach .
That @ @ @ @ @ @ @ state through a multi-candidate primary and sparked a string of stinging attacks between Kobach and Marshall .
Super Pacs have played an influential role in this Senate race .
A mystery Super Pac with ties to Democrats has tried to play spoiler in the Republican primary .
Marshall also has a Super Pac supporting him .
Some Republicans can ’ t see Kobach winning the primary , even with Thiel ’ s money behind him .
“ Republicans in Kansas want a proven winner , not a proven loser .
Kobach ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , ” said the Republican strategist Chris LaCivita , who is helping run the pro-Marshall Super Pac .
But in the final few days before the primary internal campaign polling has found Marshall with a single-digit lead over Kobach , according to multiple Republicans with knowledge of those figures .
More concerning for Republicans is that polling also shows Bollier competitive against either candidate .
If Bollier won the Senate race , it could dramatically shift control of the Senate to Democrats .
It would also end the eight-decade streak of Republican control @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Democratic victories in Kansas aren ’ t unheard of .
In 2018 the Democratic gubernatorial nominee , Laura Kelly , defeated Kobach after a grueling Republican primary fight .
Now Republicans worry 2020 could be deja vu .
There ’ s plenty Kobach and Thiel have in common .
Thiel has donated money to NumbersUSA , the anti-immigration group that ’ s supported Kobach .
Both have considered running for governorships – with Thiel weighing a bid in California .
Both have ties to Trump .
Thiel spoke at the 2016 Republican national @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to the Trump campaign , and had been in consideration to serve on the Trump administration ’ s intelligence advisory board .
Kobach had been mentioned as a potential secretary of the Department of Homeland Security or immigration tsar but those talks fell apart after an unusually long list of Kobach ’ s demands to serve in the Trump administration became public .
Both Thiel and Kobach have connections to extremely aggressive approaches to curb immigration .
Software from Palantir , a company co-founded by Thiel , was used to target the relatives @ @ @ @ @ @ @ report in the Intercept .
Kobach has also laid out a blueprint for a federal registry for immigrants from Muslim countries .
The Kansas Senate race has emerged as one of the more competitive races regardless of who wins .
Trump does not plan to weigh in in the primary despite having endorsed Kobach when he ran for governor in 2018 .
Aides and advisers see Marshall as the more competitive opponent in the general election .
On Wednesday on Air Force One Trump indicated he would stay out of the primary .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ Texas senator Ted Cruz reminded Trump that Marshall supported the former Ohio governor John Kasich and not Trump in the 2016 Republican presidential primary .
Cruz has ties to Thiel as well .
Thiel has been a longtime donor to Cruz campaigns going back to Cruz ’ s initial interest in running for attorney general of Texas .
So the forces pushing Kobach extend to multiple corners of the Republican party .
Other parts of the party remain unconvinced .
“ I think if Kobach is going to be the nominee it ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Republican strategist .

In usually deep-red Kansas, Democrats have the luxury of a sleepy primary contest for US Senate. Republicans do not.
That’s because in the Democratic primary the Kansas state senator Barbara Bollier is the heavy favorite to win her party’s nomination and then run a competitive general election campaign fueled by a large war chest of cash.
That prospect is sharpened because Republicans are having to go through a bloody primary between the Kansas congressman Roger Marshall and former Kansas secretary of state Kris Kobach, the immigration hardliner and former Republican nominee for governor whose unpopularity – should he win the nod – could hand the Democrats a vital Senate seat they would never normally hope to win.
Kobach’s candidacy is notable for its support from the billionaire Peter Thiel, the libertarian venture capitalist who has at times expressed the same type of hardline immigration stances as Kobach.
Peter Thiel, a Kobach supporter. Photograph: DDP/Rex/Shutterstock
Thiel’s support for Kobach has flowed through a pro-Kobach Super Pac called the Freedom Forever Political Action Committee. That support has allowed Kobach to effectively remain competitive with the more establishment-aligned Marshall. It has also meant that Republicans have had to sort out their contentious primary right up until the election on 4 August rather than focus on their Democratic opponent.
Thiel’s support is not based on a longtime relationship with Kobach, despite comments by both of them that places them roughly in the same immigration hawk wing of the Republican party.
Rather, Thiel’s support for Kobach stems from Ann Coulter, who connected the two and helped host a 2019 fundraiser for Kobach featuring Thiel. Other high-profile Republican donors such as Rebekah Mercer and Eric Prince attended. Kobach and Thiel first interacted in 2015, according to Recode. But Thiel really decided to support Kobach in 2019 after being pitched on supporting the pro-Kobach Super Pac, according to the Recode report.
“Peter and Kris don’t actually know each other reasonably well,” said one well-entrenched Kansas Republican operative. “Ann Coulter’s one of Peter’s best friends, and he kind of does whatever she tells him to.”
Thiel has poured over $850,000 into the race to support Kobach. That support has buoyed the Kansas secretary of state through a multi-candidate primary and sparked a string of stinging attacks between Kobach and Marshall.
Super Pacs have played an influential role in this Senate race. A mystery Super Pac with ties to Democrats has tried to play spoiler in the Republican primary. Marshall also has a Super Pac supporting him.
Some Republicans can’t see Kobach winning the primary, even with Thiel’s money behind him.
“Republicans in Kansas want a proven winner, not a proven loser. Kobach’s toast, the edge goes to Marshall,” said the Republican strategist Chris LaCivita, who is helping run the pro-Marshall Super Pac.
Roger Marshall is the mainstream choice in the Republican field but his lead over Kobach was down to single digits in recent internal polling. Photograph: John Hanna/AP
But in the final few days before the primary internal campaign polling has found Marshall with a single-digit lead over Kobach, according to multiple Republicans with knowledge of those figures. More concerning for Republicans is that polling also shows Bollier competitive against either candidate.
If Bollier won the Senate race, it could dramatically shift control of the Senate to Democrats. It would also end the eight-decade streak of Republican control of both Kansas Senate seats. Statewide Democratic victories in Kansas aren’t unheard of. In 2018 the Democratic gubernatorial nominee, Laura Kelly, defeated Kobach after a grueling Republican primary fight. Now Republicans worry 2020 could be deja vu.
There’s plenty Kobach and Thiel have in common.
Thiel has donated money to NumbersUSA, the anti-immigration group that’s supported Kobach. Both have considered running for governorships – with Thiel weighing a bid in California. Both have ties to Trump. Thiel spoke at the 2016 Republican national convention for Trump, donated $1.25m to the Trump campaign, and had been in consideration to serve on the Trump administration’s intelligence advisory board.
Kobach had been mentioned as a potential secretary of the Department of Homeland Security or immigration tsar but those talks fell apart after an unusually long list of Kobach’s demands to serve in the Trump administration became public.
Both Thiel and Kobach have connections to extremely aggressive approaches to curb immigration. Software from Palantir, a company co-founded by Thiel, was used to target the relatives of migrant children, according to a report in the Intercept. Kobach has also laid out a blueprint for a federal registry for immigrants from Muslim countries.
The Kansas Senate race has emerged as one of the more competitive races regardless of who wins. Trump does not plan to weigh in in the primary despite having endorsed Kobach when he ran for governor in 2018. Aides and advisers see Marshall as the more competitive opponent in the general election.
On Wednesday on Air Force One Trump indicated he would stay out of the primary. During a conversation on that flight the Texas senator Ted Cruz reminded Trump that Marshall supported the former Ohio governor John Kasich and not Trump in the 2016 Republican presidential primary.
Cruz has ties to Thiel as well. Thiel has been a longtime donor to Cruz campaigns going back to Cruz’s initial interest in running for attorney general of Texas. So the forces pushing Kobach extend to multiple corners of the Republican party.
Other parts of the party remain unconvinced. “I think if Kobach is going to be the nominee it’s over,” fretted a longtime Republican strategist.


theguardian--2020-08-01--Could this anti-Trump Republican campaign group take down the President?

Amid all the noise of an election involving Donald Trump – all the inflammatory tweets and shadowy Facebook posts – one set of ads has somehow managed to break through .
There ’ s the one of the US president shuffling down a ramp that declares that the president “ is not well ” .
There ’ s the whispering one about Trump ’ s “ loyalty problem ” inside his White House , campaign and family .
There ’ s the epic Mourning in America that remakes Reagan ’ s election-defining 1984 ad , turning the sun-bathed suburbs into @ @ @ @ @ @ @ recession .
On Twitter , YouTube and Facebook , those three ads alone have racked up more than 35m views .
The Lincoln Project , run by a group of renegade Republican political consultants , has crystallized one of the core narratives of the 2020 campaign in ways that few other political commercials have in past cycles .
Its work on brutal attack ads sits alongside the swift boat veterans against John Kerry in 2004 , the Willie Horton ad against Michael Dukakis in 1988 , and the daisy ad against Barry Goldwater @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from independent media , distrust across the political spectrum and a recent series of harshly negative coverage from pro-Trump media outlets .
Disdain appears to be the consensus view from the pundits .
Atlantic magazine called their ads “ personally abusive , overwrought , pointlessly salacious , and trip-wired with non sequiturs ” .
The New Republic examined what it called “ the viral impotency ” of the Lincoln Project , suggesting they couldn ’ t “ persuade voters of anything ” .
Even the Washington Post declared most of their ads were @ @ @ @ @ @ @ but simply at needling the president ” .
But that ’ s not how the project ’ s leaders see their work or purpose .
In their launch manifesto , published as a column in the New York Times , the founders said their goal was “ defeating President Trump and Trumpism at the ballot box ” , including his Republican supporters in Congress .
To that end , they said their efforts were about “ persuading enough disaffected conservatives , Republicans and Republican-leaning independents in swing states and districts ” to defeat @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Trumpism .
In practice , that means organizing anti-Trump Republicans in eight swing states – including Florida , Ohio , Arizona and North Carolina – to hold virtual town halls and write postcards to Republican neighbors and friends .
It also means organizing surrogates to speak to those voters in their home states and towns .
“ These are Republicans they are familiar with – former representatives and mayors , ” said Sarah Lenti , executive director of the Lincoln Project .
“ People like Rick Snyder in Michigan who will come out @ @ @ @ @ @ @ supporting the Lincoln Project and supporting Joe Biden this cycle.
’ It gives people the cover to say , ‘ Our leadership is doing this , so it ’ s OK for us too.
’ ” Alongside the top-tier surrogates and ads , there is a grassroots effort to organize women , veterans and evangelicals to reach out to persuade Republicans to abandon the president who dominates their party .
“ There are certain voters we ’ re not going to move – the one-issue voters on the right to life – and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Lenti .
“ We ’ re looking at 3-5 % of Republicans in certain states .
They tend to be more educated than not .
Over 40 years old , and the demographic split is about 50/50 , maybe a little towards men .
We ’ re also seeing traction with some evangelicals , and those are typically older and less educated.
” That sliver of disaffected Republicans is the target for ads like Mourning in America : people who are old enough to remember the original from three decades ago are also @ @ @ @ @ @ @ risk of the coronavirus .
“ Under the leadership of Donald Trump , ” the narrator says , “ our country is weaker , and sicker , and poorer.
” That was the first ad that triggered Trump enough to tweet-storm about the group two months ago : a presidential outburst that transformed the Lincoln Project ’ s profile and resources .
“ A group of RINO Republicans who failed badly 12 years ago , then again 8 years ago , and then got BADLY beaten by me , a political first timer @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ( no imagination ) the concept of an ad from Ronald Reagan , “ Morning in America ” , doing everything possible to get even for all of their many failures , ” Trump tweeted .
If Trump was truly tormented by the Reagan reference , the irony is striking .
Trump himself stole , without attribution , Reagan ’ s 1980 slogan : Make America Great Again .
For the most part Trump ’ s tweets focused on the individual founders of the project that troubles him so deeply .
Given their @ @ @ @ @ @ @ dismissal of them as Rinos – Republicans In Name Only – means there are very few Republicans who can pass the Trump test .
The Lincoln Project founders include John Weaver , who was a political strategist for George HW Bush in 1988 and 1992 , as well as John McCain ’ s strategist for a decade ; Reed Galen , who worked on both Bush campaigns in 2000 and 2004 ; Steve Schmidt , who ran the McCain campaign in 2008 and worked in the Bush White House and campaigns before that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lawyer whose wife Kellyanne just happens to work as Trump ’ s counselor in the West Wing .
The pushback did not stop there .
The conservative Club for Growth took the extraordinary step of creating and airing its own ad attacking the Lincoln Project .
It depicted the group as a bunch of failed strategists trying to make a quick buck by hating not just Trump but the American people .
This month they have been joined by two hit stories in the Murdoch-owned New York Post , accusing the founders of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” as well as secretly wanting to work for Trump .
These may be confusing lines of attack for Trump supporters who have grown numb to ties to Russia , tax troubles and think highly of those who want to work for Trump .
For Democratic ad-makers , the work of the Lincoln Project has earned their respect , even if questions remain about its impact .
“ The ads have struck a chord with progressives and activists who see the Project as validating everything we ’ ve been saying about Trump , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ we usually campaign against , ” said Jim Margolis , a veteran Democratic strategist and ad-maker for the Obama and Clinton campaigns .
“ The question is whether independent voters , moderate Republicans and white suburban voters will respond as well .
“ If the objective is modest – moving a point or two in the right states with the right people – I think they can help win the election .
Remember : Hillary Clinton lost the presidency in 2016 by less than one point in Michigan , Wisconsin and Pennsylvania .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ difference between a Trump second term and a new day in America.
” But for some of the ads it is clear they are engaged in a battle for the attention of a singular target .
“ Some of these ads have an audience of one , ” says Lenti .
“ That ’ s always been part of the strategy .
Because every time he gets off message , spewing grievances , he ’ s not campaigning .
The idea is to get him off message again and again and again .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ people inside the White House that he wants them to make us go away .
But we ’ re not going away.
” Trump ’ s concern about the Lincoln Project has only helped to fill its coffers .
After seeing Mourning In America , Trump stepped off Marine One and talked to reporters before boarding Air Force One .
“ They should not call it the Lincoln Project , ” he complained , after taking more potshots at its founders .
“ It ’ s not fair to Abraham Lincoln , a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Losers Project.
” Instead of turning them into losers , Trump helped raise $ 2m for his sworn enemies .
The group raked in more than $ 20m by the end of June , far ahead of its target of raising $ 30m by the end of the election cycle .
Most of those funds came after Trump ’ s attacks in May , with small donors making up the bulk of its supporters : the average donation is around $ 50 .
Now the group has enough funds to go after @ @ @ @ @ @ @ races .
This week it placed its biggest ad buy – $ 4m in Alaska , Maine and Montana – as the expanded battlefield underscores its bigger goal .
“ I don ’ t think this wing of the party is going away , ” says Lenti .
“ Our job isn ’ t to reform the Republican party .
Our job is to end Trump and Trumpism .
”

Amid all the noise of an election involving Donald Trump – all the inflammatory tweets and shadowy Facebook posts – one set of ads has somehow managed to break through.
There’s the one of the US president shuffling down a ramp that declares that the president “is not well”. There’s the whispering one about Trump’s “loyalty problem” inside his White House, campaign and family.
There’s the epic Mourning in America that remakes Reagan’s election-defining 1984 ad, turning the sun-bathed suburbs into a dark national portrait of pandemic and recession. On Twitter, YouTube and Facebook, those three ads alone have racked up more than 35m views.
The Lincoln Project, run by a group of renegade Republican political consultants, has crystallized one of the core narratives of the 2020 campaign in ways that few other political commercials have in past cycles.
Its work on brutal attack ads sits alongside the swift boat veterans against John Kerry in 2004, the Willie Horton ad against Michael Dukakis in 1988, and the daisy ad against Barry Goldwater in 1964.
Their reward? Disdain from independent media, distrust across the political spectrum and a recent series of harshly negative coverage from pro-Trump media outlets.
Disdain appears to be the consensus view from the pundits. Atlantic magazine called their ads “personally abusive, overwrought, pointlessly salacious, and trip-wired with non sequiturs”. The New Republic examined what it called “the viral impotency” of the Lincoln Project, suggesting they couldn’t “persuade voters of anything”. Even the Washington Post declared most of their ads were “aimed not at persuading disaffected Republicans but simply at needling the president”.
But that’s not how the project’s leaders see their work or purpose. In their launch manifesto, published as a column in the New York Times, the founders said their goal was “defeating President Trump and Trumpism at the ballot box”, including his Republican supporters in Congress.
To that end, they said their efforts were about “persuading enough disaffected conservatives, Republicans and Republican-leaning independents in swing states and districts” to defeat Trump and elect congressional majorities opposed to Trumpism.
In practice, that means organizing anti-Trump Republicans in eight swing states – including Florida, Ohio, Arizona and North Carolina – to hold virtual town halls and write postcards to Republican neighbors and friends. It also means organizing surrogates to speak to those voters in their home states and towns.
“These are Republicans they are familiar with – former representatives and mayors,” said Sarah Lenti, executive director of the Lincoln Project. “People like Rick Snyder in Michigan who will come out and say, ‘We’re supporting the Lincoln Project and supporting Joe Biden this cycle.’ It gives people the cover to say, ‘Our leadership is doing this, so it’s OK for us too.’”
Alongside the top-tier surrogates and ads, there is a grassroots effort to organize women, veterans and evangelicals to reach out to persuade Republicans to abandon the president who dominates their party.
“There are certain voters we’re not going to move – the one-issue voters on the right to life – and that’s OK,” says Lenti.
“We’re looking at 3-5% of Republicans in certain states. They tend to be more educated than not. Over 40 years old, and the demographic split is about 50/50, maybe a little towards men. We’re also seeing traction with some evangelicals, and those are typically older and less educated.”
That sliver of disaffected Republicans is the target for ads like Mourning in America: people who are old enough to remember the original from three decades ago are also old enough to be at the highest risk of the coronavirus. “Under the leadership of Donald Trump,” the narrator says, “our country is weaker, and sicker, and poorer.”
That was the first ad that triggered Trump enough to tweet-storm about the group two months ago: a presidential outburst that transformed the Lincoln Project’s profile and resources.
“A group of RINO Republicans who failed badly 12 years ago, then again 8 years ago, and then got BADLY beaten by me, a political first timer, 4 years ago, have copied (no imagination) the concept of an ad from Ronald Reagan, “Morning in America”, doing everything possible to get even for all of their many failures,” Trump tweeted.
If Trump was truly tormented by the Reagan reference, the irony is striking. Trump himself stole, without attribution, Reagan’s 1980 slogan: Make America Great Again.
For the most part Trump’s tweets focused on the individual founders of the project that troubles him so deeply. Given their track record in GOP politics, his dismissal of them as Rinos – Republicans In Name Only – means there are very few Republicans who can pass the Trump test.
The Lincoln Project founders include John Weaver, who was a political strategist for George HW Bush in 1988 and 1992, as well as John McCain’s strategist for a decade; Reed Galen, who worked on both Bush campaigns in 2000 and 2004; Steve Schmidt, who ran the McCain campaign in 2008 and worked in the Bush White House and campaigns before that; and George Conway, a conservative lawyer whose wife Kellyanne just happens to work as Trump’s counselor in the West Wing.
The pushback did not stop there. The conservative Club for Growth took the extraordinary step of creating and airing its own ad attacking the Lincoln Project. It depicted the group as a bunch of failed strategists trying to make a quick buck by hating not just Trump but the American people.
This month they have been joined by two hit stories in the Murdoch-owned New York Post, accusing the founders of “ties to Russia and tax troubles” as well as secretly wanting to work for Trump. These may be confusing lines of attack for Trump supporters who have grown numb to ties to Russia, tax troubles and think highly of those who want to work for Trump.
For Democratic ad-makers, the work of the Lincoln Project has earned their respect, even if questions remain about its impact. “The ads have struck a chord with progressives and activists who see the Project as validating everything we’ve been saying about Trump, but now being voiced by the people we usually campaign against,” said Jim Margolis, a veteran Democratic strategist and ad-maker for the Obama and Clinton campaigns. “The question is whether independent voters, moderate Republicans and white suburban voters will respond as well.
“If the objective is modest – moving a point or two in the right states with the right people – I think they can help win the election. Remember: Hillary Clinton lost the presidency in 2016 by less than one point in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. So even small gains can mean the difference between a Trump second term and a new day in America.”
But for some of the ads it is clear they are engaged in a battle for the attention of a singular target.
“Some of these ads have an audience of one,” says Lenti. “That’s always been part of the strategy. Because every time he gets off message, spewing grievances, he’s not campaigning. The idea is to get him off message again and again and again. It bothers him. We hear from people inside the White House that he wants them to make us go away. But we’re not going away.”
Trump’s concern about the Lincoln Project has only helped to fill its coffers. After seeing Mourning In America, Trump stepped off Marine One and talked to reporters before boarding Air Force One.
“They should not call it the Lincoln Project,” he complained, after taking more potshots at its founders. “It’s not fair to Abraham Lincoln, a great president. They should call it the Losers Project.”
Instead of turning them into losers, Trump helped raise $2m for his sworn enemies. The group raked in more than $20m by the end of June, far ahead of its target of raising $30m by the end of the election cycle. Most of those funds came after Trump’s attacks in May, with small donors making up the bulk of its supporters: the average donation is around $50.
Now the group has enough funds to go after Trump’s supporters in tight Senate races. This week it placed its biggest ad buy – $4m in Alaska, Maine and Montana – as the expanded battlefield underscores its bigger goal.
“I don’t think this wing of the party is going away,” says Lenti. “Our job isn’t to reform the Republican party. Our job is to end Trump and Trumpism.”


theguardian--2020-08-01--The US election is entering its final stretch – here are the key areas to watch

Election day in the US is officially 3 November , but amid the coronavirus pandemic , Americans are being encouraged to take advantage of early voting initiatives that open as soon as September to decrease the risks to themselves and others .
From voter suppression to polling and debates , here are some of the key areas and figures the Guardian ’ s politics team will be watching as the race enters its final stretch .
The Trump campaign has less than 100 days to change the dominant narratives of the year : that the president failed the leadership test @ @ @ @ @ @ @ profound shift in public mood following the police killing of George Floyd in Minneapolis in May .
With his attempts to distract having largely failed , Trump has finally worn a face mask and promised a coronavirus “ strategy ” but provided few details so far .
He may be pinning his hopes on an “ October surprise ” , such as the discovery of a vaccine , and a better than expected economic recovery , which has experienced the sharpest contraction since the second world war according to data released this week @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to engage with the cause of Black Lives Matter , inverting it to a racist campaign theme , stoking fear of violence in cities and portraying it as an existential threat to suburbs .
“ Law and order ” may resonate with parts of his base but , polls suggest , it may be too little too late to rescue Trump from a one-term presidency .
David Smith Less than 100 days out , the Biden campaign is currently well positioned to defeat Trump in November .
The former vice-president leads Trump by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ national polls , as the president ’ s handling of the coronavirus pandemic weighs on his approval rating .
Biden has narrower but consistent margins in several battleground states as his campaign eyes an expansion in traditionally Republican states such as Arizona and Georgia , which could pave the way for Democrats to take back the Senate .
And with the party largely united behind him , Biden has started to lay out an ambitious recovery plan as Trump ’ s edge on the economy slips .
But there are risks , too @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Hillary Clinton was in 2016 , Democrats worry about his favorability ratings , which have slipped amid an advertising assault by the Trump campaign .
Biden ’ s supporters are far less enthusiastic about his candidacy than Trump ’ s supporters are about his re-election .
And polling suggests Biden has more work to do to mobilize young and minority voters , who were a key part of the coalition that twice elected Barack Obama .
Lauren Gambino A presidential candidate ’ s running mate is usually one of the bigger lodestars in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s pick is particularly momentous , and he has said it will be announced in the first week of August .
He has vowed to choose a woman , and if he wins , would usher into the White House the first female vice-president in American history .
He has also said four of the candidate he is considering are African American .
There has never been an African American female nominee on either the Republican or Democratic presidential tickets .
The selection is also important because Biden , 77 , has indicated @ @ @ @ @ @ @ term , immediately elevating his running mate into contention as his presidential heir .
Running mates rarely tip an election dramatically in one direction but it ’ s possible that Biden ’ s vice-presidential pick could help energize key voting blocks such as women or African Americans .
Daniel Strauss The 2020 presidential election will really be fought in just a handful of states scattered across the country , which will determine the winner of the electoral college , and therefore determine who takes the White House .
In 2016 , Trump pulled @ @ @ @ @ @ @ first Republican presidential candidate in 28 years to win Michigan , Pennsylvania or Wisconsin .
Trump swept all three midwestern states , and he can only afford to lose two of them in November and still secure a second term .
But the president is also struggling to maintain control of states he won a bit more easily in 2016 – namely Florida , Arizona and North Carolina .
Polls indicate Biden is pulling ahead in those battleground states , as well as in the midwest .
With only 100 days to go @ @ @ @ @ @ @ campaign resources are expected to be stretched thin , and the president ’ s path to re-election is narrowing .
Joan E Greve Polling might be the one thing that a lot of people are decidedly not watching out for in the 100 days until the election .
The failure of polls to detect Trump ’ s momentum in the upper midwest , Pennsylvania and Florida in the 2016 election lured many people who feared a Trump victory into a false sense of security and teed up a painful reckoning .
So why @ @ @ @ @ @ @ thing , there ’ s reason to believe that state-level polling has improved since 2016 .
The polls then had a particular blind spot to voters without a college degree , a group that ended up voting overwhelmingly for Trump .
This time around most pollsters are weighting for education .
Other factors working in pollsters ’ favor : there are fewer undecided voters this time , and there has been more polling in places such as Michigan and Wisconsin .
But there are good reasons , apart from 2016 , to take @ @ @ @ @ @ @ salt .
In order to accurately interpret their data , pollsters must make predictions about voter turnout – and this year , with the pandemic , mail-in voting and aggressive Republican efforts to suppress the vote , predicting voter turnout could pose a unique challenge .
No matter how any one polling snapshot might be right or wrong , the polls are worth glancing at to see how they ’ re changing .
A noticeable shift across the polls could indicate a narrowing or widening race .
One hundred days isn ’ t @ @ @ @ @ @ @ time for twists that could decide the election .
Tom McCarthy Trump ’ s falling poll numbers have rendered the Republican party into a state somewhere between anxiety and panic not only about what November ’ s elections will mean for the White House , but what it will mean for congressional candidates too .
“ The mood is like probably what it felt like when you were on the Titanic , ” Joe Walsh , a former congressman from Illinois , recently told the Guardian .
Republicans realise they could lose everything @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the House of Representatives , which they surrendered to the “ blue wave ” in the 2018 midterm election .
The Senate is critical , and Democrats need a net gain of three seats to flip it .
If Republicans can retain their majority , they will be able to obstruct significant parts of the Democratic agenda , just as they did for much of Obama ’ s presidency .
The Republican senators Susan Collins of Maine , Joni Ernst of Iowa , Cory Gardner of Colorado , Martha McSally of Arizona and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ trailing in polls .
Even leading Trump loyalists Mitch McConnell and Lindsey Graham face stiff challenges from Democratic opponents raising huge funds in Kentucky and South Carolina , respectively .
David Smith There is deep concern about America ’ s ability to run a free and fair election this year .
Trump is already laying the groundwork to contest the results of the election , falsely saying that increased mail-in balloting will lead to widespread “ fraud ” and that the election will be rigged .
There is no evidence to support the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rhetoric offers another threat to America ’ s election infrastructure , which is already straining under the pandemic .
Trump ’ s rhetoric is particularly concerning this year , when experts expect there to be delays in reporting official election results .
Trump , they say , could use the uncertainty in the days after the election to claim victory as ballots are still being counted .
Election officials across the country also face the unprecedented challenge of having to accommodate expected high turnout both in mail-in and in-person voting .
Many states @ @ @ @ @ @ @ voting have seen an unprecedented surge of requests for ballots and have struggled to keep up with them , while some states , such as Texas , have refused to ease restrictions around mail-in voting , even amid Covid-19 .
Thousands of mail-in ballots have been rejected during the primaries , and even more could be blocked this fall , for technical reasons .
Election officials are also scrambling to figure out how they can staff the polls and find places for polling sites as the people and locations that would typically serve @ @ @ @ @ @ @ virus .
Republicans in Congress have also refused to allocate much money to states to help them run elections ; one estimate says states need about $ 4bn to upgrade their election systems , Congress has allocated just $ 400m so far .
Sam Levine US intelligence agencies found that the Russian government , under the direction of Vladimir Putin , conducted a coordinated campaign to influence the 2016 election , which aimed to damage Hillary Clinton ’ s presidential bid and undermine the US democratic process .
In a statement to Congress @ @ @ @ @ @ @ director of the National Counterintelligence and Security Center , said Russia was again using a range of methods to weaken the US ahead of the 2020 election , including online disinformation “ designed to undermine confidence in our democratic process and denigrate what it sees as an anti-Russia ‘ establishment ’ in America ” .
Intelligence experts have warned that the US this year will be most vulnerable to a foreign disinformation campaign in the immediate aftermath of the vote , if the outcome is close and there are disputes over the legitimacy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ issued a warning about Chinese and Iranian interference , saying the three campaigns represented “ a direct threat to the fabric of our democracy ” .
Democrats , however , complained that the warning was far too vague , and created a false equivalence between the activities and intent of the three countries .
They see Russia as by far the most urgent threat in terms of seeking to undermine confidence in democratic institutions , for example by amplifying Donald Trump ’ s unsubstantiated claims that postal ballots are subject to rigging .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ both parties plans to stage conventions in late August , where presidential nominations are traditionally conferred in front of massive , cheering crowds .
Trump recently canceled the Republican national convention events in Jacksonville , Florida , amid record numbers of coronavirus cases and deaths in that state .
The change-up came after the president ’ s insistence on packed crowds compelled the party to move the event to Florida from North Carolina , where the governor had balked at hosting a full-scale event .
Democrats still plan on having Biden accept his @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the party officials have urged most attendees to stay home .
All the official business – setting rules , adopting a policy platform and formally nominating Biden , will be conducted remotely .
This will be the first time in modern US history that the major parties have abandoned crowded conventions , a tradition they upheld during the civil war and second world war .
By giving the event a miss , Democrats and Republicans are also losing a chance to galvanize supporters in crucial swing states .
Despite the restrictions this year @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , with “ exciting ” TV programming and virtual celebrations .
Maanvi Singh The two septuagenarian presidential nominees are set to go head-to-head in three televised presidential debates between 29 September and 22 October , with one vice-presidential debate .
After initially threatening not to take part , the Trump campaign has recently pushed for an additional debate in September , arguing that the coronavirus crisis could prompt much earlier voting .
But the debate format also suited Trump in 2016 , when the then candidate loomed behind the Democratic contender Hillary Clinton @ @ @ @ @ @ @ her , and his campaign will be hoping to dominate the stage again .
But Biden ’ s campaign has said it will not “ ride the rollercoaster of the ever-changing Trump campaign position on debates , nor are we going to be distracted by his demands ” .
Enjoli Liston

David Smith, Lauren Gambino, Joan E Greve, Tom McCarthy, Sam Levine, Julian Borger, Maanvi Singh and Enjoli Liston

Election day in the US is officially 3 November, but amid the coronavirus pandemic, Americans are being encouraged to take advantage of early voting initiatives that open as soon as September to decrease the risks to themselves and others.
From voter suppression to polling and debates, here are some of the key areas and figures the Guardian’s politics team will be watching as the race enters its final stretch.
Donald Trump
The Trump campaign has less than 100 days to change the dominant narratives of the year: that the president failed the leadership test during the coronavirus pandemic and missed the profound shift in public mood following the police killing of George Floyd in Minneapolis in May.
With his attempts to distract having largely failed, Trump has finally worn a face mask and promised a coronavirus “strategy” but provided few details so far. He may be pinning his hopes on an “October surprise”, such as the discovery of a vaccine, and a better than expected economic recovery, which has experienced the sharpest contraction since the second world war according to data released this week.
He has shown even less willingness to engage with the cause of Black Lives Matter, inverting it to a racist campaign theme, stoking fear of violence in cities and portraying it as an existential threat to suburbs. “Law and order” may resonate with parts of his base but, polls suggest, it may be too little too late to rescue Trump from a one-term presidency. David Smith
Joe Biden
Less than 100 days out, the Biden campaign is currently well positioned to defeat Trump in November. The former vice-president leads Trump by double digits in a slate of new national polls, as the president’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic weighs on his approval rating.
Biden has narrower but consistent margins in several battleground states as his campaign eyes an expansion in traditionally Republican states such as Arizona and Georgia, which could pave the way for Democrats to take back the Senate. And with the party largely united behind him, Biden has started to lay out an ambitious recovery plan as Trump’s edge on the economy slips.
But there are risks, too. Though Biden is less unpopular than Hillary Clinton was in 2016, Democrats worry about his favorability ratings, which have slipped amid an advertising assault by the Trump campaign.
Biden’s supporters are far less enthusiastic about his candidacy than Trump’s supporters are about his re-election. And polling suggests Biden has more work to do to mobilize young and minority voters, who were a key part of the coalition that twice elected Barack Obama. Lauren Gambino
Biden’s pick for vice-president
A presidential candidate’s running mate is usually one of the bigger lodestars in any campaign cycle. But Biden’s pick is particularly momentous, and he has said it will be announced in the first week of August. He has vowed to choose a woman, and if he wins, would usher into the White House the first female vice-president in American history.
He has also said four of the candidate he is considering are African American. There has never been an African American female nominee on either the Republican or Democratic presidential tickets.
Kamala Harris greets Joe Biden during a campaign stop in Detroit, Michigan, on 9 March. Photograph: Brendan McDermid/Reuters
The selection is also important because Biden, 77, has indicated he may not run for a second term, immediately elevating his running mate into contention as his presidential heir.
Running mates rarely tip an election dramatically in one direction but it’s possible that Biden’s vice-presidential pick could help energize key voting blocks such as women or African Americans. Daniel Strauss
Swing states
The 2020 presidential election will really be fought in just a handful of states scattered across the country, which will determine the winner of the electoral college, and therefore determine who takes the White House.
In 2016, Trump pulled off a shocking victory by becoming the first Republican presidential candidate in 28 years to win Michigan, Pennsylvania or Wisconsin. Trump swept all three swing states, and he can only afford to lose two of them in November and still secure a second term.
But the president is also struggling to maintain control of states he won a bit more easily in 2016 – namely Florida, Arizona and North Carolina. Polls indicate Biden is pulling ahead in those battleground states, as well as in the midwest.
With only 100 days to go until the election, Trump’s campaign resources are expected to be stretched thin, and the president’s path to re-election is narrowing. Joan E Greve
Polling
Polling might be the one thing that a lot of people are decidedly not watching out for in the 100 days until the election. The failure of polls to detect Trump’s momentum in the upper midwest, Pennsylvania and Florida in the 2016 election lured many people who feared a Trump victory into a false sense of security and teed up a painful reckoning.
So why watch polls in 2020? For one thing, there’s reason to believe that state-level polling has improved since 2016. The polls then had a particular blind spot to voters without a college degree, a group that ended up voting overwhelmingly for Trump. This time around most pollsters are weighting for education. Other factors working in pollsters’ favor: there are fewer undecided voters this time, and there has been more polling in places such as Michigan and Wisconsin.
Donald Trump at the White House on 14 July. Photograph: Drew Angerer/Getty Images
But there are good reasons, apart from 2016, to take the polls with a big grain of salt. In order to accurately interpret their data, pollsters must make predictions about voter turnout – and this year, with the pandemic, mail-in voting and aggressive Republican efforts to suppress the vote, predicting voter turnout could pose a unique challenge.
No matter how any one polling snapshot might be right or wrong, the polls are worth glancing at to see how they’re changing. A noticeable shift across the polls could indicate a narrowing or widening race. One hundred days isn’t long, but it’s enough time for twists that could decide the election. Tom McCarthy
The Senate
Trump’s falling poll numbers have rendered the Republican party into a state somewhere between anxiety and panic not only about what November’s elections will mean for the White House, but what it will mean for congressional candidates too.
“The mood is like probably what it felt like when you were on the Titanic,” Joe Walsh, a former congressman from Illinois, recently told the Guardian.
Republicans realise they could lose everything, with the presidency and Senate following the House of Representatives, which they surrendered to the “blue wave” in the 2018 midterm election.
The Senate is critical, and Democrats need a net gain of three seats to flip it. If Republicans can retain their majority, they will be able to obstruct significant parts of the Democratic agenda, just as they did for much of Obama’s presidency.
The Republican senators Susan Collins of Maine, Joni Ernst of Iowa, Cory Gardner of Colorado, Martha McSally of Arizona and Thom Tillis of North Carolina are all trailing in polls. Even leading Trump loyalists Mitch McConnell and Lindsey Graham face stiff challenges from Democratic opponents raising huge funds in Kentucky and South Carolina, respectively. David Smith
Voter suppression
There is deep concern about America’s ability to run a free and fair election this year. Trump is already laying the groundwork to contest the results of the election, falsely saying that increased mail-in balloting will lead to widespread “fraud” and that the election will be rigged.
There is no evidence to support the president’s claims, but his rhetoric offers another threat to America’s election infrastructure, which is already straining under the pandemic. Trump’s rhetoric is particularly concerning this year, when experts expect there to be delays in reporting official election results. Trump, they say, could use the uncertainty in the days after the election to claim victory as ballots are still being counted.
Election officials across the country also face the unprecedented challenge of having to accommodate expected high turnout both in mail-in and in-person voting. Many states that do not typically see widespread mail-in voting have seen an unprecedented surge of requests for ballots and have struggled to keep up with them, while some states, such as Texas, have refused to ease restrictions around mail-in voting, even amid Covid-19. Thousands of mail-in ballots have been rejected during the primaries, and even more could be blocked this fall, for technical reasons.
Election officials are also scrambling to figure out how they can staff the polls and find places for polling sites as the people and locations that would typically serve drop out because of concern over the virus. Republicans in Congress have also refused to allocate much money to states to help them run elections; one estimate says states need about $4bn to upgrade their election systems, Congress has allocated just $400m so far. Sam Levine
Foreign interference
US intelligence agencies found that the Russian government, under the direction of Vladimir Putin, conducted a coordinated campaign to influence the 2016 election, which aimed to damage Hillary Clinton’s presidential bid and undermine the US democratic process.
In a statement to Congress this month, William Evanina, the director of the National Counterintelligence and Security Center, said Russia was again using a range of methods to weaken the US ahead of the 2020 election, including online disinformation “designed to undermine confidence in our democratic process and denigrate what it sees as an anti-Russia ‘establishment’ in America”.
Intelligence experts have warned that the US this year will be most vulnerable to a foreign disinformation campaign in the immediate aftermath of the vote, if the outcome is close and there are disputes over the legitimacy of the vote count.
Evanina also issued a warning about Chinese and Iranian interference, saying the three campaigns represented “a direct threat to the fabric of our democracy”.
Democrats, however, complained that the warning was far too vague, and created a false equivalence between the activities and intent of the three countries. They see Russia as by far the most urgent threat in terms of seeking to undermine confidence in democratic institutions, for example by amplifying Donald Trump’s unsubstantiated claims that postal ballots are subject to rigging. Julian Borger
Conventions
The coronavirus pandemic has dampened both parties plans to stage conventions in late August, where presidential nominations are traditionally conferred in front of massive, cheering crowds.
Trump recently canceled the Republican national convention events in Jacksonville, Florida, amid record numbers of coronavirus cases and deaths in that state. The change-up came after the president’s insistence on packed crowds compelled the party to move the event to Florida from North Carolina, where the governor had balked at hosting a full-scale event.
Democrats still plan on having Biden accept his nomination in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, though the party officials have urged most attendees to stay home. All the official business – setting rules, adopting a policy platform and formally nominating Biden, will be conducted remotely.
Joe Biden is seen on a monitor as he speaks in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, on 2 June. Photograph: Joshua Roberts/Reuters
This will be the first time in modern US history that the major parties have abandoned crowded conventions, a tradition they upheld during the civil war and second world war.
By giving the event a miss, Democrats and Republicans are also losing a chance to galvanize supporters in crucial swing states. Despite the restrictions this year, both parties have promised a spectacle, with “exciting” TV programming and virtual celebrations. Maanvi Singh
Debates
The two septuagenarian presidential nominees are set to go head-to-head in three televised presidential debates between 29 September and 22 October, with one vice-presidential debate.
After initially threatening not to take part, the Trump campaign has recently pushed for an additional debate in September, arguing that the coronavirus crisis could prompt much earlier voting. But the debate format also suited Trump in 2016, when the then candidate loomed behind the Democratic contender Hillary Clinton, mocked her and threatened to jail her, and his campaign will be hoping to dominate the stage again.
But Biden’s campaign has said it will not “ride the rollercoaster of the ever-changing Trump campaign position on debates, nor are we going to be distracted by his demands”. Enjoli Liston


theguardian--2020-08-01--Texas 'wide open for business' despite surge in Covid-19 cases

An older man in an orange apron greets customers at the Home Depot in College Station , Texas .
Signs serving as a reminder they are living through a pandemic are plastered on the sliding glass doors : “ Face covering required.
” The reminder is much needed because to an outsider , Texas looked almost the same in July 2019 as it does in July 2020 , despite Covid-19 having claimed more than 6,000 lives in the state and more than 150,000 lives in the US since March .
Customers at the home improvement store walk in wearing masks @ @ @ @ @ @ @ only to lower them below their chins to speak or remove them altogether .
In the upscale neighborhood of Montrose in Houston , the multi-story Agora coffee house is full of people hungry for coffee , pastries and conversation .
It ’ s difficult to spot an open seat inside or outside on the patio .
It ’ s also difficult to spot anyone wearing anything resembling a face covering .
The Texas governor , Greg Abbott , a Republican , caught flak for allowing the reopening of bars , restaurants , movie @ @ @ @ @ @ @ May .
In June , he said that Texas was “ wide open for business ” .
Now in late July , more than four months into the Covid-19 pandemic , a mandatory mask order is in place across the state – a reversal from Abbott ’ s initial position that the government should not infringe on personal rights by telling citizens what to do .
But , with little enforcement except by some businesses , some worry Abbott ’ s reversals are too little , too late .
As hospitals struggle and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in Texas still appears to continue as normal .
“ We didn ’ t shut down early enough , ” the Texas congresswoman Sylvia Garcia , a Democrat , said in a recent interview with ABC .
“ [ Abbott ] failed to early order a mask law across the state .
He has not given local officials the flexibility to do what they need to do in their own cities and counties.
” Texas has recently been reporting record single-day death tolls .
Since the recording of data begun on 4 March @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the state as of 28 July .
According to the Covid Tracking Project , Texas only saw 2,170 new tests per 1 million people as of 23 July .
That ’ s about 60,500 new tests in total for the 29 million people in the state .
The total number of tests ( that came back both positive and negative in the state ) is 3,164,656 , or under 14 % .
Despite these numbers , many businesses in Texas remain fully operational .
Meanwhile masks , which health experts recommend to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ virus , have become a symbol of America ’ s bitter political divide , with many Texas Republican officials shunning them after Donald Trump long refused to wear one in public .
On Wednesday , the Texas congressman Louie Gohmert , who steadfastly refused to wear a mask during much of the coronavirus pandemic , said he had tested positive for Covid-19 and would self-quarantine for 10 days .
“ It ’ s really ironic , because a lot of people have made a big deal out of my not wearing a mask @ @ @ @ @ @ @ an interview with KETK-TV .
“ But in the last week or two , I have worn a mask more than I have in the whole last four months.
” Abbott ’ s lieutenant governor , Dan Patrick , was also often at odds with the governor on masks , and recently criticized the advice of one of the US ’ s top public health experts , Dr Anthony Fauci .
In an interview in March , Patrick said he would rather die than see the economy destroyed for his grandchildren .
“ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Let ’ s get back to living , ” he said .
“ Let ’ s be smart about it , and those of us who are 70-plus , we ’ ll take care of ourselves , but don ’ t sacrifice the country.
” Before Abbott announced the statewide mask order , Diana Robles said she didn ’ t think the pandemic was being taken seriously in Texas .
Robles , a recent high school graduate and an essential worker at a grocery store in Houston , has been working upwards @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Since the pandemic , we ’ ve gotten busier .
Our orders have quadrupled , ” Robles said .
“ Once the mask law was implemented , I saw a difference .
We can now refuse service to those who don ’ t wear a mask , ” Robles said .
“ What scares me the most was that I could be doing everything right but I didn ’ t know if other people were .
Something could have been done way sooner to prevent this.
” Robles has been tasked with limiting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rolls as well as de-escalating tense situations with customers .
She recounted some experiences dealing with difficult customers .
“ I witnessed a lady that wanted to return a ham .
We told her we weren ’ t accepting returns during Covid .
My manager is from Venezuela and has a bit of an accent .
The customer told her to ‘ go back to her country ’ and threw the ham at her face , ” Robles said .
“ Some customers are not understanding .
I just wish people were considerate.
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ in Round Rock , Texas .
Despite the soaring cases in the state , Galarza said the daycare is seeing new enrollments each week .
“ Our director is giving us the option to take breaks from work if we ’ re not comfortable but we have bills so we can ’ t really do that , ” she said .
Galarza ’ s workplace has been implementing safeguards to prevent the spread of the virus such as placing kids 6ft apart during nap time , but Galarza says she remains nervous .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ their nose or under their chin , ” Galarza said .
“ It ’ s so hard because you don ’ t want to tell them not to hug their friends.
” Since the pandemic , Galarza said she has considered changing careers .
“ This is not going to be sustainable .
We ’ re going to be at high risk with high-capacity classrooms .
I wash my hands after everything I do and I put on gloves .
I see some teachers not even washing their hands.
” Texas schools and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for the fall semester .
The University of Texas announced plans to start football season on 5 September at 50 % capacity , with an estimated 50,000 fans in the stands .
Nonye Imo , a resident physician in Dallas , said the state ’ s response had been terrible .
“ The economy was prioritized over human life .
The desire to make money was prioritized over human life , ” Imo said .
“ That is terrible .
The current people who are in charge who fumbled this response need to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ had already witnessed the toll the virus has taken on herself and her colleagues .
“ I got assigned to the ICU the first month of my program .
We have had to limit visitors so people can not visit their family members who are critically ill , ” Imo said .
“ But the attendings I work with in the Covid unit are bearing the brunt of it.
” Imo said it was an overwhelming time to be entering medicine .
“ I have grown to think about medicine as a calling @ @ @ @ @ @ @ idea to be tested so early in my career , ” Imo said .
“ I ’ m willing to take the risk but I didn ’ t think I ’ d have to take it on so early.
” When asked about Texas ’ s outlook over the next few months , she said : “ The community spread rate is so high .
The word pandemic is not just being used to scare people .
The media is not blowing it up .
This is serious .
”

An older man in an orange apron greets customers at the Home Depot in College Station, Texas. Signs serving as a reminder they are living through a pandemic are plastered on the sliding glass doors: “Face covering required.”
The reminder is much needed because to an outsider, Texas looked almost the same in July 2019 as it does in July 2020, despite Covid-19 having claimed more than 6,000 lives in the state and more than 150,000 lives in the US since March.
Customers at the home improvement store walk in wearing masks, which have become highly politicized, only to lower them below their chins to speak or remove them altogether.
In the upscale neighborhood of Montrose in Houston, the multi-story Agora coffee house is full of people hungry for coffee, pastries and conversation. It’s difficult to spot an open seat inside or outside on the patio. It’s also difficult to spot anyone wearing anything resembling a face covering.
The Texas governor, Greg Abbott, a Republican, caught flak for allowing the reopening of bars, restaurants, movie theaters and shopping malls back in early May. In June, he said that Texas was “wide open for business”. Now in late July, more than four months into the Covid-19 pandemic, a mandatory mask order is in place across the state – a reversal from Abbott’s initial position that the government should not infringe on personal rights by telling citizens what to do.
Signage about mask requirements are seen in an Austin, Texas, restaurant. Photograph: Sergio Flores/Reuters
But, with little enforcement except by some businesses, some worry Abbott’s reversals are too little, too late. As hospitals struggle and cases mount, much of ordinary life in Texas still appears to continue as normal.
“We didn’t shut down early enough,” the Texas congresswoman Sylvia Garcia, a Democrat, said in a recent interview with ABC. “[Abbott] failed to early order a mask law across the state. He has not given local officials the flexibility to do what they need to do in their own cities and counties.”
Texas has recently been reporting record single-day death tolls. Since the recording of data begun on 4 March, there had been 5,877 Covid-related deaths in the state as of 28 July.
According to the Covid Tracking Project, Texas only saw 2,170 new tests per 1 million people as of 23 July. That’s about 60,500 new tests in total for the 29 million people in the state. The total number of tests (that came back both positive and negative in the state) is 3,164,656, or under 14%.
Despite these numbers, many businesses in Texas remain fully operational. Meanwhile masks, which health experts recommend to prevent the transmission of the highly contagious virus, have become a symbol of America’s bitter political divide, with many Texas Republican officials shunning them after Donald Trump long refused to wear one in public.
On Wednesday, the Texas congressman Louie Gohmert, who steadfastly refused to wear a mask during much of the coronavirus pandemic, said he had tested positive for Covid-19 and would self-quarantine for 10 days.
“It’s really ironic, because a lot of people have made a big deal out of my not wearing a mask a lot,” Gohmert said in an interview with KETK-TV. “But in the last week or two, I have worn a mask more than I have in the whole last four months.”
Abbott’s lieutenant governor, Dan Patrick, was also often at odds with the governor on masks, and recently criticized the advice of one of the US’s top public health experts, Dr Anthony Fauci. In an interview in March, Patrick said he would rather die than see the economy destroyed for his grandchildren.
“Let’s get back to work. Let’s get back to living,” he said. “Let’s be smart about it, and those of us who are 70-plus, we’ll take care of ourselves, but don’t sacrifice the country.”
Before Abbott announced the statewide mask order, Diana Robles said she didn’t think the pandemic was being taken seriously in Texas. Robles, a recent high school graduate and an essential worker at a grocery store in Houston, has been working upwards of 40-plus hours a week.
“Since the pandemic, we’ve gotten busier. Our orders have quadrupled,” Robles said.
“Once the mask law was implemented, I saw a difference. We can now refuse service to those who don’t wear a mask,” Robles said. “What scares me the most was that I could be doing everything right but I didn’t know if other people were. Something could have been done way sooner to prevent this.”
Robles has been tasked with limiting rolls of paper towels and toilet paper rolls as well as de-escalating tense situations with customers. She recounted some experiences dealing with difficult customers.
“I witnessed a lady that wanted to return a ham. We told her we weren’t accepting returns during Covid. My manager is from Venezuela and has a bit of an accent. The customer told her to ‘go back to her country’ and threw the ham at her face,” Robles said. “Some customers are not understanding. I just wish people were considerate.”
Marisol Galarza is a daycare provider in Round Rock, Texas. Despite the soaring cases in the state, Galarza said the daycare is seeing new enrollments each week.
“Our director is giving us the option to take breaks from work if we’re not comfortable but we have bills so we can’t really do that,” she said.
Galarza’s workplace has been implementing safeguards to prevent the spread of the virus such as placing kids 6ft apart during nap time, but Galarza says she remains nervous.
“The kids wear their masks below their nose or under their chin,” Galarza said. “It’s so hard because you don’t want to tell them not to hug their friends.”
Since the pandemic, Galarza said she has considered changing careers.
“This is not going to be sustainable. We’re going to be at high risk with high-capacity classrooms. I wash my hands after everything I do and I put on gloves. I see some teachers not even washing their hands.”
Texas schools and universities are due to resume in-person learning for the fall semester. The University of Texas announced plans to start football season on 5 September at 50% capacity, with an estimated 50,000 fans in the stands. Nonye Imo, a resident physician in Dallas, said the state’s response had been terrible.
“The economy was prioritized over human life. The desire to make money was prioritized over human life,” Imo said. “That is terrible. The current people who are in charge who fumbled this response need to be voted out.”
Imo said she had already witnessed the toll the virus has taken on herself and her colleagues.
“I got assigned to the ICU the first month of my program. We have had to limit visitors so people cannot visit their family members who are critically ill,” Imo said. “But the attendings I work with in the Covid unit are bearing the brunt of it.”
Imo said it was an overwhelming time to be entering medicine.
“I have grown to think about medicine as a calling but it’s interesting for that idea to be tested so early in my career,” Imo said. “I’m willing to take the risk but I didn’t think I’d have to take it on so early.”
When asked about Texas’s outlook over the next few months, she said: “The community spread rate is so high. The word pandemic is not just being used to scare people. The media is not blowing it up. This is serious.”