theguardian--2020-11-03--Black women shed blood, sweat and tears to gain a voice. Granny, this vote is for you

With my hand on the pearls she gave me as graduation gift , I said a prayer , shed a tear and said her name : “ Granny , this vote is for you.
” Ms Rose won ’ t be here to see the returns come in later today , whatever the outcome might eventually be .
Like many of the Black and indigenous women whose blood , sweat , and tears form the foundations of this country , she didn ’ t live to experience the full promise of this great experiment known as America .
For nearly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was ineligible to vote – subject to a society that deemed women who looked like her worthy of being silenced .
Even after the 19th amendment gave white women the right to vote , Black women remained disenfranchised .
Neither the 19th nor the 15th amendment , which granted Black men their rights a century prior , addressed voter suppression in the form of Jim Crow laws that perpetuated segregation , legalized discrimination and barred Black communities from voting through poll taxes and literacy tests , or just plain threats of violence .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ women ’ s suffrage – she entered a world in which Black women were “ pulled in two directions ” : fighting alongside Black men for racial equality and White counterparts for women ’ s rights , all while relegated as inferior and excluded within both movements .
But in 1967 , Granny put herself and her family on a journey , escaping the violence of Jim Crow and patriarchy in Arkansas to forge a new life in Wisconsin , a journey taken by hundreds of thousands of Black Americans who fled discrimination @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for better opportunity of the north .
For Black journalists , our commitments to tell these stories would not be possible without the sacrifice of women like her .
The woman who would brag she shared the same 4 August birthday as America ’ s first Black president , Barack Obama , couldn ’ t hold on to witness the possible election of the first Black , female vice-president .
Doctors confirmed her health had steadily declined ever since the last birthday she and the president shared .
This year is defined by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ people of her age , race and gender and forced her to spend the final weeks of her life alone , losing the will to hold on .
For many families , the outcome of the election could determine how routine Granny ’ s story becomes .
The Democratic senator Kamala Harris once said : “ The litmus test for America is how we are treating Black women , ” and the unprecedented national crises of a pandemic , a recession and and a social justice uprising only exposed the mirage of progress @ @ @ @ @ @ @ virus : institutional racism .
Throughout American history , Black women have been victimized by public health inequities including unequal access to care , environments that create or worsen pre-existing conditions , and a maternal morality rate more than three times that of White women .
Implicit racial bias can even create barriers to having our pain and suffering believed by our communities and medical professionals .
Experts have pinpointed this inequality as a factor in why African American women are more likely to have negative outcomes from contracting the virus .
As @ @ @ @ @ @ @ despite being only 6 % of the workforce , Black women have faced the brunt of the pandemic ’ s impact and the recession that followed .
Since February , about 1.4 million jobs held by Black women have been eliminated .
The coronavirus only worsened existing inequality that has allowed America ’ s most educated demographic to be subject to the worst income gap and massive student debt – barriers to creating generational wealth .
But America ’ s most consistent voters - and Democrats ’ most loyal bloc - have been @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to their vote , armed with a national history of experience that proximity to community doesn ’ t guarantee a commitment to it .
“ Democrats have been taking Black women for granted , ” Angie Nixon of Jacksonville , Florida , told me , explaining why she ’ s part of a record number of Black women running for office this cycle .
“ We ’ ve been the ones that have been turning out for the longest and we are going to lead this movement.
” Since the passage of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ women have raised their voices as the most reliable voting bloc in America .
I hope to have captured that demand for agency in our own storytelling with our Black Voting Power series – highlighting the Black men and women at the forefront of the fight for voting rights and calls for institutional change .
Those calls will ring out well past election day , and I know it ’ s Ms Rose ’ s 60-year-old sacrifice that allows me to continue conveying the pulse of the people politics and punditry leaves out @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ t live to hear or read her story told .
She was my hero , a human lesson that women aren ’ t property to be controlled but free individuals worthy of the agency to forge our own destinies .
It ’ s likely the weight of her legacy that forced my pen to shake and the pearls to rattle while I filled in my ballot .
Desmond Meade , a voting rights campaigner in Florida , offered the most powerful words to describe his experience voting for the first time in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
“ When I walked into that voting booth , I took the spirit of my ancestors with me , thinking about how many people have died , were hung on trees , bitten by dogs , sprayed with firehouses , ” he said .
“ They overcame all that .
“ Covid is nothing compared to what our ancestors went through to secure the right to vote for all of us.
” I didn ’ t anticipate Granny would be one of those ancestors whose spirit would hold me up as I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ women are exceptionally impacted by three national crises yet are still most often left out of policy , excluded from news coverage , and most easily stereotyped .
For every one of the ancestors who couldn ’ t make it to this day , we say your names .
This election day , we take the spirit of our ancestors like Ms Rose , and every Black man and woman whose story has never , or is just yet to be , told .
We forge our futures cloaked in the legacies of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is for you .

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With my hand on the pearls she gave me as graduation gift, I said a prayer, shed a tear and said her name: “Granny, this vote is for you.”
Ms Rose won’t be here to see the returns come in later today, whatever the outcome might eventually be. Like many of the Black and indigenous women whose blood, sweat, and tears form the foundations of this country, she didn’t live to experience the full promise of this great experiment known as America.
Granny died two weeks before election day.
For nearly half her 98 years, Ms Rose was ineligible to vote – subject to a society that deemed women who looked like her worthy of being silenced. Even after the 19th amendment gave white women the right to vote, Black women remained disenfranchised.
Neither the 19th nor the 15th amendment, which granted Black men their rights a century prior, addressed voter suppression in the form of Jim Crow laws that perpetuated segregation, legalized discrimination and barred Black communities from voting through poll taxes and literacy tests, or just plain threats of violence.
Born in 1922 – two years after women’s suffrage – she entered a world in which Black women were “pulled in two directions”: fighting alongside Black men for racial equality and White counterparts for women’s rights, all while relegated as inferior and excluded within both movements.
But in 1967, Granny put herself and her family on a journey, escaping the violence of Jim Crow and patriarchy in Arkansas to forge a new life in Wisconsin, a journey taken by hundreds of thousands of Black Americans who fled discrimination in the south during the Great Migration for better opportunity of the north.
For Black journalists, our commitments to tell these stories would not be possible without the sacrifice of women like her.
Kenya Evelyn and her grandmother Ms Rose. Photograph: Courtesy Kenya Evelyn
The woman who would brag she shared the same 4 August birthday as America’s first Black president, Barack Obama, couldn’t hold on to witness the possible election of the first Black, female vice-president. Doctors confirmed her health had steadily declined ever since the last birthday she and the president shared.
This year is defined by a coronavirus pandemic that has largely impacted people of her age, race and gender and forced her to spend the final weeks of her life alone, losing the will to hold on. For many families, the outcome of the election could determine how routine Granny’s story becomes.
The Democratic senator Kamala Harris once said: “The litmus test for America is how we are treating Black women,” and the unprecedented national crises of a pandemic, a recession and and a social justice uprising only exposed the mirage of progress in dealing with America’s oldest virus: institutional racism.
Throughout American history, Black women have been victimized by public health inequities including unequal access to care, environments that create or worsen pre-existing conditions, and a maternal morality rate more than three times that of White women.
Implicit racial bias can even create barriers to having our pain and suffering believed by our communities and medical professionals. Experts have pinpointed this inequality as a factor in why African American women are more likely to have negative outcomes from contracting the virus.
As 11% of all essential workers, despite being only 6% of the workforce, Black women have faced the brunt of the pandemic’s impact and the recession that followed. Since February, about 1.4 million jobs held by Black women have been eliminated.
The coronavirus only worsened existing inequality that has allowed America’s most educated demographic to be subject to the worst income gap and massive student debt – barriers to creating generational wealth.
But America’s most consistent voters - and Democrats’ most loyal bloc - have been stepping forward to hold political parties accountable to their vote, armed with a national history of experience that proximity to community doesn’t guarantee a commitment to it.
“Democrats have been taking Black women for granted,” Angie Nixon of Jacksonville, Florida, told me, explaining why she’s part of a record number of Black women running for office this cycle. “We’ve been the ones that have been turning out for the longest and we are going to lead this movement.”
Since the passage of the Voting Rights Act of 1965, Black women have raised their voices as the most reliable voting bloc in America. I hope to have captured that demand for agency in our own storytelling with our Black Voting Power series – highlighting the Black men and women at the forefront of the fight for voting rights and calls for institutional change.
Ms Rose was ineligible to vote for nearly half of her 98 years. Photograph: Courtesy Kenya Evelyn
Those calls will ring out well past election day, and I know it’s Ms Rose’s 60-year-old sacrifice that allows me to continue conveying the pulse of the people politics and punditry leaves out. Women like Granny, who couldn’t live to hear or read her story told.
She was my hero, a human lesson that women aren’t property to be controlled but free individuals worthy of the agency to forge our own destinies.
It’s likely the weight of her legacy that forced my pen to shake and the pearls to rattle while I filled in my ballot. Desmond Meade, a voting rights campaigner in Florida, offered the most powerful words to describe his experience voting for the first time in more than 30 years after experiencing disenfranchisement.
“When I walked into that voting booth, I took the spirit of my ancestors with me, thinking about how many people have died, were hung on trees, bitten by dogs, sprayed with firehoses,” he said. “They overcame all that.
“Covid is nothing compared to what our ancestors went through to secure the right to vote for all of us.”
I didn’t anticipate Granny would be one of those ancestors whose spirit would hold me up as I held on to her pearls.
Black women are exceptionally impacted by three national crises yet are still most often left out of policy, excluded from news coverage, and most easily stereotyped. For every one of the ancestors who couldn’t make it to this day, we say your names.
This election day, we take the spirit of our ancestors like Ms Rose, and every Black man and woman whose story has never, or is just yet to be, told. We forge our futures cloaked in the legacies of our past.
Ancestors, this vote is for you.


theguardian--2020-11-03--'It's gonna be a lot closer than people expect': swing voters in swing states speak out

We sent four photographers to swing counties in swing states to ask early voters of various ages and political parties how they were feeling , which spanned from anxious to relieved after casting their ballot to proud and empowered .
When asked what brought them out to vote , their differing reasons exemplified a starkly divided electorate .
These interviews have been edited for clarity and length .
How are you feeling ?
After voting today and after the last presidential debate yesterday , I ’ m pretty stern with my vote still being Joe Biden .
What is driving @ @ @ @ @ @ @ need for change .
We ’ ve had the last four years with President Trump and giving him a chance and Covid happening and it being such a sweep of a whole entire year of 2020 – a lot of expectations didn ’ t get met .
That probably would be my biggest thing as far as understanding where we ’ re at as a nation and understanding where we want to go in the next four years .
I think it was definitely the need for someone else to step into power @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Biden .
How are you feeling ?
I ’ ll be glad when it ’ s over .
What is driving you to vote this year ?
Well , one , it ’ s a civil right .
Two , just wanting to see more growth and change with the current climate .
The police brutality is one thing .
I actually am a business owner in Charlotte , and seeing the looting and the other things that was going on , I actually came out here and protested three straight nights .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ from both sides .
There are a lot of people who may not come out publicly because they don ’ t want to be ridiculed , but it ’ s a lot of African American especially business owners you know who have had success here in Charlotte that are gon na vote for Trump .
I think it ’ s gon na be a lot closer than people expect .
Who are you voting for ?
Donald Trump .
How are you feeling ?
I ’ m very excited to cast my vote @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ re due for a change .
What is driving you to vote this year ?
I vote every year , and what drives me to vote is the right to do so , and that ’ s the chance to make my voice heard .
I ’ m particularly interested in all of the social and environmental issues .
Those are the ones that are the nearest and dearest to my heart .
And I ’ ve been deeply concerned to see the erosion of environmental regulations .
Who are you voting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ very proudly .
How are you feeling ?
It ’ s very suspenseful .
It just stinks to see the country torn , you know ?
What is driving you to vote this year ?
I definitely have strong beliefs and values , and I feel like it would be neglectful not to vote for those .
I ’ m a young business owner actually , and I think a lot of the tax reform that Biden is possibly proposing would absolutely just wipe me and some of my other young entrepreneur friends @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that it ’ s my first year voting as well , and it ’ s such a pivotal election .
Who are you voting for ?
Trump .
How are you feeling ?
I ’ m glad I got it done and there was no line .
Very relieved to have gotten it done .
What is driving you to vote this year ?
Well , I like Biden and I hate Trump .
Other than that I think we need to undo what ’ s been done .
Coronavirus , and environment @ @ @ @ @ @ @ voting for ?
Joe Biden .
How are you feeling ?
I feel pretty good to go out and do my civic duty .
Obviously I think this is a super important election .
What is driving you to vote this year ?
I mean , there ’ s so many things right now .
Like I said , I think it ’ s a huge , important election .
Being of mixed racial background , I think the racial environment around the country is really in a bad spot .
I feel @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a great job with that .
I ’ d like to see a change as far as that ’ s concerned .
The response to the coronavirus is obviously a big topic as well .
Who are you voting for ?
Biden .
How are you feeling ?
I ’ m feeling really good after the debates last night .
What is driving you to vote this year ?
I vote every time I get a chance , because it is my right , and I can ’ t complain if I don @ @ @ @ @ @ @ am .
I also voted for the economy and freedom .
Who are you voting for ?
Trump .
How are you feeling ?
I ’ m feeling empowered .
What is driving you to vote this year ?
Well , actually , I hadn ’ t planned on going to the polls .
However , I did not receive my mail-in ballot so that ’ s why I ’ m here .
Who are you voting for ?
I absolutely voted for all Democrats , down the line .
How are you @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s important .
What is driving you to vote this year ?
The character – the lack of character of our top officials , and the coronavirus , and concerns about social security and Medicare .
Who are you voting for ?
Biden .
How are you feeling ?
Well , I feel it ’ s a very , very important election after all the discrepancy and the different things you hear on the news .
I voted all my life – I think it ’ s very , very important for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ our country and I want to keep it the way it is .
What is driving you to vote this year ?
Social security and exactly what Monica said .
Monica : Well , I said the character of the top officials .
Joyce : Well , that ’ s true too , almost the same thing – the characters of who I really think should get in .
Who are you voting for ?
Donald Trump .
Together : There ’ s the two of us – you ’ re a Biden @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ ve been friends forever .
[ Laughter . ]
Every once in a while we get in an argument but it never affects us .
How are you feeling ?
I ’ m fine , I ’ m fine .
What is driving you to vote this year ?
I always vote .
Who are you voting for ?
That ’ s private .
C ’ mon now .
Always private .
How are you feeling ?
I am fabulous , blessed and highly favored .
What is driving you to vote @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it ’ s a responsibility as a US citizen to vote .
Being an African American woman , I ’ m also an educator , and I ’ m teaching students about voting and the importance of it – from the Voting Rights Act to civil rights , what our ancestors have gone through , and it wasn ’ t just people of color , it was all people that felt it wasn ’ t right .
As Lyndon Johnson said : “ We shall overcome.
” So I feel it ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ died and were beaten , like Congressmen – and God bless his soul – John Lewis , whose skull was fractured so that I could walk in freely and have the choice to do it without having to go through that .
It ’ s an honor to be here today .
Who are you voting for ?
Biden and Kamala .
Just even Kamala Harris being the first woman .
The US is behind in the times .
How are you feeling ?
I feel great .
What is driving you to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is a very crucial election .
I ’ m a Democrat by party , but I have voted for Republican presidents , I have voted for Democrat presidents , and really to me it ’ s about who will lead the country and serve , you know , to help all people .
And I felt like this election is probably one of the most important elections that I have ever faced in my lifetime .
Who are you voting for ?
I voted for Biden , absolutely , I think he ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ experience , policies , you know , just overall understanding where this country is and where it needs to go .
Again , I don ’ t necessarily vote along party lines , but in this election I picked the man that I thought would really be the best for our country and all of us , including myself , my husband , my children , my grandchildren .
How are you feeling ?
Average .
What is driving you to vote this year ?
Honestly , I ’ m not much of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ like – I don ’ t know – I don ’ t really do much of this sort of thing .
So I just filled out the ballot just based on what I ’ m hearing , what I ’ m seeing .
I want to at least contribute to something .
Who are you voting for ?
Democrats .
That ’ s all I ’ m going to say about that .
Angela Hence , 38 , with daughter , Jada , six How are you feeling ?
I don ’ t @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
I ’ m just up in the air .
I have no idea .
What is driving you to vote this year ?
I vote every year .
Who are you voting for ?
I voted for Joe Biden and Kamala Harris .
I really like Kamala Harris .
I like the fact that she ’ s more personable .
How are you feeling ?
I am feeling confident that on election night the correct person will be elected for four more years !
What is driving you to vote this year @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the most epic election ever .
It seems like everything ’ s split right down the middle right now .
Who are you voting for ?
Donald Trump .
There ’ s so many reasons .
This Democratic side right now to me is so far left , and Trump has done everything that he said he was gon na do from the moment he was elected till now .
He produces results .
How are you feeling ?
I ’ m excited because the sleeping giant – which is the public – @ @ @ @ @ @ @ democracy is for the quality of our lives .
What is driving you to vote this year ?
When I was a teenager I always looked forward to being able to register to vote .
That took me toward my adulthood .
And I ’ ve always voted .
You couldn ’ t live in my house if you didn ’ t vote .
Who are you voting for ?
It should be a no-brainer : Joe Biden and Kamala Harris .
Because they get it .
And people have seen the quality @ @ @ @ @ @ @ segment of our society has had a chance to be punished and brutalized by this current administration .
And that ’ s not America .
How are you feeling ?
Samantha : I feel on edge .
Jacob : I don ’ t really blame people for voting Trump in 2016 because the DNC handled it extremely poorly.Trump has a lot of “ plans ” but no policy .
[ But ] it ’ s been exhausting and very sad seeing people be used and forgotten as soon as [ Trump ] gets @ @ @ @ @ @ @ you to vote this year ?
Samantha : This country is very divided right now and we all need to remember we are together in all of this .
Also , that Black lives matter !
Jacob : Our parents have always really pushed the right to vote .
It ’ s something that you should always go out and do and be informed about .
Who are you voting for ?
Samantha : I voted for Biden .
To be honest he wasn ’ t really my first choice when all of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ feel like I would have much rather had him , somebody who actually cares about personal goals and the people who are lower class – who are actually being taxed like crazy – when big corporations are paying maybe even less than what we ’ re paying for taxes .
Jacob : I voted for Biden .
He ’ s not a perfect candidate , no candidate will be , but I personally just feel like the dissension that our current president is creating just can ’ t go on for another four @ @ @ @ @ @ @ It is absolutely absurd the we have to deal with what we ’ re currently dealing with .
What is driving you to vote this year ?
It ’ s so easy for us to be manipulated by social media and that ’ s where our political climate actually comes from today .
Now , I still don ’ t believe that either candidate , either primary candidate with the Republicans or Democrats , are viable candidates .
Who are you voting for ?
Howie Hawkins.A lot of people will call me stupid @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , ‘ They ’ re never going to get elected.
’ It ’ s that mentality that prevents us from actually getting some form of change .
Do you know how dumb we look because we only have two primary parties and these primary parties are now so polarized and divided ?
We ’ re not gon na get anywhere when we ’ re so polarized that even if we do vote for a change you ’ re never gon na get anywhere .
What is driving you to vote this year ?
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ the world .
I made all my kids register to vote and make sure that they all vote for Trump .
Who are you voting for ?
I am a huge Trump fan , and I think he ’ s the best president we ever had .
Why ?
The economy , you know , he ’ s just common sense .
How are you feeling ?
I ’ m nervous and excited for the election .
I ’ m excited for the outcome and to see what happens especially in Wisconsin , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in 2016 .
What is driving you to vote this year ?
I ’ m seeking change , and I ’ m really passionate about this election more than anything .
And I know that my age group is underrepresented usually in the polls .
Who are you voting for ?
Biden/Harris .
How are you feeling ?
Proud .
It was my first presidential election that I ’ ve ever voted in , so it ’ s really cool to actually be able to see my views put into action .
What @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ?
This is probably the most important election in a very , very , very long time , so I wanted to make sure that I was able to put in my vote for who I thought should win .
Who did you vote for ?
Biden .
How are you feeling ?
I ’ m feeling good .
Excited to see some new people out early voting .
What is driving you to vote this year ?
A lot of things bring me out to vote .
.
It ’ s probably @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and I think it ’ s just to use your voice and get out there and vote for people who don ’ t have the ability or don ’ t have the representation in office in the last four years .
Who did you vote for ?
Biden .
How are you feeling ?
Great .
I ’ ve been a blue Democrat all my life and I never thought I ’ d ever see anything like this .
What is driving you to vote this year ?
To get rid of him @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and I know he can step in and we know we need a national mask mandate .
We ’ ve had seatbelt laws – with matters of public health you surrender a certain amount of your rights .
I have no right to make you sick .
I have an obligation to you .
I have an obligation to the community .
If one of my loved ones struggles to breathe and ends up intubated and ends up dying , it ’ s squarely at Trump ’ s feet .
So that ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Who did you vote for ?
Biden .
How are you feeling ?
I think I ’ m a little bit nervous .
I hope my candidate wins , but I ’ ve felt that before and it hasn ’ t always worked out .
What is driving you to vote this year ?
Mainly the environment .
I think just being young and knowing that so many fossil fuels are being burned .
The world is definitely going to need someone now and in the future who cares about the planet that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and my kids and grandkids .
I think that ’ s very important now .
Who are you voting for ?
Voting for Biden .
How are you feeling ?
I ’ m happy to come and vote .
I know that they want my vote so that ’ s why I decided to come early and vote .
What is driving you to vote this year ?
I just really want to vote .
I am a qualified voter .
I don ’ t want to hurt anyone ’ s feelings if @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to vote for because [ I have been a ] Republican from the beginning .
Who are you voting for ?
I ’ m just voting for Trump still .
Even though there ’ s a lot of people against him .
How are you feeling ?
I think it ’ s really important .
It ’ s the most important election we ’ ve had in a long time .
What is driving you to vote this year ?
I want my vote to count , and frankly I want to send @ @ @ @ @ @ @ voting for ?
Voting for Biden .
How are you feeling ?
I think it ’ s the most important election .
We ’ re fighting for the soul of our country , and if we don ’ t vote we can ’ t change things that are unacceptable to us .
What is driving you to vote this year ?
Most of all I ’ m thinking about my young daughters .
I want them to grow up knowing that there ’ s power within them and each individual , that we @ @ @ @ @ @ @ never should be a dictatorship .
Democracy is very important .
I grew up in Montreal , and when I was a young girl around their age a political party took over .
We were English , they were French , and overnight it became a dictatorship .
And that ’ s what I see happening in this country if Trump gets re-elected .
And if he does we will probably move back to Canada , because this is not where I want to raise my daughters .
Who are you voting for @ @ @ @ @

Mike Belleme in North Carolina, Lauren Justice in Wisconsin, M Levy in Pennsylvania and Erin Kirkland in Michigan.

We sent four photographers to swing counties in swing states to ask early voters of various ages and political parties how they were feeling, which spanned from anxious to relieved after casting their ballot to proud and empowered. When asked what brought them out to vote, their differing reasons exemplified a starkly divided electorate.
These interviews have been edited for clarity and length.
North Carolina
Julius Kemp. Photograph: Mike Belleme/The Guardian
Julius Kemp, 25
How are you feeling?
After voting today and after the last presidential debate yesterday, I’m pretty stern with my vote still being Joe Biden.
What is driving you to vote this year?
The need for change. We’ve had the last four years with President Trump and giving him a chance and Covid happening and it being such a sweep of a whole entire year of 2020 – a lot of expectations didn’t get met. That probably would be my biggest thing as far as understanding where we’re at as a nation and understanding where we want to go in the next four years. I think it was definitely the need for someone else to step into power.
Who are you voting for?
Biden.
Ruth Shaw (left) and Mario Robinson (right) Ruth Shaw and Mario Robinson. Photographs by Mike Belleme/The Guardian
Mario Robinson, 34
How are you feeling?
I’ll be glad when it’s over.
What is driving you to vote this year?
Well, one, it’s a civil right. Two, just wanting to see more growth and change with the current climate. The police brutality is one thing. I actually am a business owner in Charlotte, and seeing the looting and the other things that was going on, I actually came out here and protested three straight nights. I got to see it actually first-hand from both sides.
There are a lot of people who may not come out publicly because they don’t want to be ridiculed, but it’s a lot of African American especially business owners you know who have had success here in Charlotte that are gonna vote for Trump. I think it’s gonna be a lot closer than people expect.
Who are you voting for?
Donald Trump.
Ruth Shaw, 72
How are you feeling?
I’m very excited to cast my vote in this election. I think we’re due for a change.
What is driving you to vote this year?
I vote every year, and what drives me to vote is the right to do so, and that’s the chance to make my voice heard. I’m particularly interested in all of the social and environmental issues. Those are the ones that are the nearest and dearest to my heart. And I’ve been deeply concerned to see the erosion of environmental regulations.
Who are you voting for?
I voted for Joe Biden very proudly.
Jordan Fenlason (left) and Andrew Lax (right) Jordan Fenlason, left, and Andrew Lax, right. Photographs by Mike Belleme/The Guardian
Jordan Fenlason, 21
How are you feeling?
It’s very suspenseful. It just stinks to see the country torn, you know?
What is driving you to vote this year?
I definitely have strong beliefs and values, and I feel like it would be neglectful not to vote for those. I’m a young business owner actually, and I think a lot of the tax reform that Biden is possibly proposing would absolutely just wipe me and some of my other young entrepreneur friends out.
It’s really cool that it’s my first year voting as well, and it’s such a pivotal election.
Who are you voting for?
Trump.
Andrew Lax, 65
How are you feeling?
I’m glad I got it done and there was no line. Very relieved to have gotten it done.
What is driving you to vote this year?
Well, I like Biden and I hate Trump. Other than that I think we need to undo what’s been done. Coronavirus and environment and climate change.
Who are you voting for?
Joe Biden.
Parker Wilson (left) and Windoll Gardner (right) Parker Wilson, left, and Windoll Gardner, right. Photographs by Mike Belleme/The Guardian
Parker Wilson, 41
How are you feeling?
I feel pretty good to go out and do my civic duty. Obviously I think this is a super important election.
What is driving you to vote this year?
I mean, there’s so many things right now. Like I said, I think it’s a huge, important election. Being of mixed racial background, I think the racial environment around the country is really in a bad spot. I feel like our leadership is not really doing a great job with that. I’d like to see a change as far as that’s concerned. The response to the coronavirus is obviously a big topic as well.
Who are you voting for?
Biden.
Windoll Gardner, 75
How are you feeling?
I’m feeling really good after the debates last night.
What is driving you to vote this year?
I vote every time I get a chance, because it is my right, and I can’t complain if I don’t vote, so here I am. I also voted for the economy and freedom.
Who are you voting for?
Trump.
Pennsylvania
Connie Santos with granddaughter Aria. Photograph: M Levy/The Guardian
Connie Santos, 65 (with granddaughter Aria)
How are you feeling?
I’m feeling empowered.
What is driving you to vote this year?
Well, actually, I hadn’t planned on going to the polls. However, I did not receive my mail-in ballot so that’s why I’m here.
Who are you voting for?
I absolutely voted for all Democrats, down the line.
Monica Johnston, 75 and Joyce Narciso, 81, pictured together. Johnston and Narciso are friends with differing political views. Melvin Howard (right). Monica Johnston, 75, and Joyce Narciso, 81, pictured together. Johnston and Narciso are friends with differing political views. Melvin Howard, right. Photographs by M Levy/The Guardian
Monica Johnston, 75
How are you feeling?
Good. Happy. Voting’s important.
What is driving you to vote this year?
The character – the lack of character of our top officials, and the coronavirus, and concerns about social security and Medicare.
Who are you voting for?
Biden.
Joyce Narciso, 81
How are you feeling?
Well, I feel it’s a very, very important election after all the discrepancy and the different things you hear on the news. I voted all my life – I think it’s very, very important for people to vote. It’s our country and I want to keep it the way it is.
What is driving you to vote this year?
Social security and exactly what Monica said.
Monica: Well, I said the character of the top officials.
Joyce: Well, that’s true too, almost the same thing – the characters of who I really think should get in.
Who are you voting for?
Donald Trump.
Together: There’s the two of us – you’re a Biden [to Monica], and we’ve been friends forever. [Laughter.] Every once in a while we get in an argument but it never affects us.
Melvin Howard, didn’t give age
How are you feeling?
I’m fine, I’m fine.
What is driving you to vote this year?
I always vote.
Who are you voting for?
That’s private. C’mon now. Always private.
Susan Samuel (left) and Debbie Tice (right) Susan Samuel, left, and Debbie Tice, right. Photographs by M Levy/The Guardian
Susan Samuel, 52
How are you feeling?
I am fabulous, blessed and highly favored.
What is driving you to vote this year?
Because I feel that it’s a responsibility as a US citizen to vote. Being an African American woman, I’m also an educator, and I’m teaching students about voting and the importance of it – from the Voting Rights Act to civil rights, what our ancestors have gone through, and it wasn’t just people of color, it was all people that felt it wasn’t right. As Lyndon Johnson said: “We shall overcome.” So I feel it’s an honor standing on those who have died and were beaten, like congressmen – and God bless his soul – John Lewis, whose skull was fractured so that I could walk in freely and have the choice to do it without having to go through that. It’s an honor to be here today.
Who are you voting for?
Biden and Kamala. Just even Kamala Harris being the first woman. The US is behind in the times.
Debbie Tice, 61
How are you feeling?
I feel great.
What is driving you to vote this year?
Well, this is a very crucial election. I’m a Democrat by party, but I have voted for Republican presidents, I have voted for Democrat presidents, and really to me it’s about who will lead the country and serve, you know, to help all people. And I felt like this election is probably one of the most important elections that I have ever faced in my lifetime.
Who are you voting for?
I voted for Biden, absolutely, I think he’s the better choice as far as experience, policies, you know, just overall understanding where this country is and where it needs to go. Again, I don’t necessarily vote along party lines, but in this election I picked the man that I thought would really be the best for our country and all of us, including myself, my husband, my children, my grandchildren.
Michael Byrne. Photograph: M. Levy/The Guardian
Michael Byrne, 26
How are you feeling?
Average.
What is driving you to vote this year?
Honestly, I’m not much of a political person, but I feel like – I don’t know – I don’t really do much of this sort of thing. So I just filled out the ballot just based on what I’m hearing, what I’m seeing. I want to at least contribute to something.
Who are you voting for?
Democrats. That’s all I’m going to say about that.
Michigan
Angela Hence with daughter Jada Hence. Photograph: Erin Kirkland/The Guardian
Angela Hence, 38, with daughter, Jada, six
How are you feeling?
I don’t know. I don’t know. I’m just up in the air. I have no idea.
What is driving you to vote this year?
I vote every year.
Who are you voting for?
I voted for Joe Biden and Kamala Harris. I really like Kamala Harris. I like the fact that she’s more personable.
Jerry Brock (left) and Diana Peagler (right) Jerry Brock, left, and Diana Peagler, right. Photographs by Erin Kirkland/The Guardian
Jerry Brock, 45
How are you feeling?
I am feeling confident that on election night the correct person will be elected for four more years!
What is driving you to vote this year?
This is gonna be probably the most epic election ever. It seems like everything’s split right down the middle right now.
Who are you voting for?
Donald Trump . There’s so many reasons. This Democratic side right now to me is so far left, and Trump has done everything that he said he was gonna do from the moment he was elected till now. He produces results.
Diana Peagler, 68
How are you feeling?
I’m excited because the sleeping giant – which is the public – they’re finally getting how important democracy is for the quality of our lives.
What is driving you to vote this year?
When I was a teenager I always looked forward to being able to register to vote. That took me toward my adulthood. And I’ve always voted. You couldn’t live in my house if you didn’t vote.
Who are you voting for?
It should be a no-brainer: Joe Biden and Kamala Harris. Because they get it. And people have seen the quality of our lives just deteriorate. Every segment of our society has had a chance to be punished and brutalized by this current administration. And that’s not America.
Samantha and Jacob Boida, siblings (left) and David Millar (right) Samantha and Jacob Boida, siblings, left, and David Millar, right. Photographs by Erin Kirkland/The Guardian
Samantha, 23, and Jacob Boida, 25
How are you feeling?
Samantha: I feel on edge.
Jacob: I don’t really blame people for voting Trump in 2016 because the DNC handled it extremely poorly.Trump has a lot of “plans” but no policy. [But] it’s been exhausting and very sad seeing people be used and forgotten as soon as [Trump] gets what he wants.
What is driving you to vote this year?
Samantha: This country is very divided right now and we all need to remember we are together in all of this. Also, that Black lives matter!
Jacob: Our parents have always really pushed the right to vote. It’s something that you should always go out and do and be informed about.
Who are you voting for?
Samantha: I voted for Biden. To be honest he wasn’t really my first choice when all of the candidates came out. But I feel like I would have much rather had him, somebody who actually cares about personal goals and the people who are lower class – who are actually being taxed like crazy – when big corporations are paying maybe even less than what we’re paying for taxes.
Jacob: I voted for Biden. He’s not a perfect candidate, no candidate will be, but I personally just feel like the dissension that our current president is creating just can’t go on for another four years.
David Millar, 31
How are you feeling?
It is absolutely absurd that we have to deal with what we’re currently dealing with.
What is driving you to vote this year?
It’s so easy for us to be manipulated by social media and that’s where our political climate actually comes from today. Now, I still don’t believe that either candidate, either primary candidate with the Republicans or Democrats, are viable candidates.
Who are you voting for?
Howie Hawkins. A lot of people will call me stupid, they’ll call me ignorant, ‘They’re never going to get elected.’ It’s that mentality that prevents us from actually getting some form of change. Do you know how dumb we look because we only have two primary parties and these primary parties are now so polarized and divided? We’re not gonna get anywhere when we’re so polarized that even if we do vote for a change you’re never gonna get anywhere.
Filippo Leone. Photograph: Erin Kirkland/The Guardian
Filippo Leone, 60
What is driving you to vote this year?
I wouldn’t miss it for the world. I made all my kids register to vote and make sure that they all vote for Trump.
Who are you voting for?
I am a huge Trump fan, and I think he’s the best president we ever had. Why? The economy, you know, he’s just common sense.
Wisconsin
Ada Donnelley Tower, left, and Tija Simitz, right. Photograph: Lauren Justice/The Guardian
Tija Simitz, 18
How are you feeling?
I’m nervous and excited for the election. I’m excited for the outcome and to see what happens especially in Wisconsin, as a swing state and what happened in 2016.
What is driving you to vote this year?
I’m seeking change, and I’m really passionate about this election more than anything. And I know that my age group is underrepresented usually in the polls.
Who are you voting for?
Biden/Harris.
Ada Donnelley Tower, 18
How are you feeling?
Proud. It was my first presidential election that I’ve ever voted in, so it’s really cool to actually be able to see my views put into action.
What is driving you to vote this year?
This is probably the most important election in a very, very, very long time, so I wanted to make sure that I was able to put in my vote for who I thought should win.
Who did you vote for?
Biden.
Chasee Boyd (left) and Shane Scott (right) Chasee Boyd, left, and Shane Scott, right. Photographs by Lauren Justice/The Guardian
Chasee Boyd, 22
How are you feeling?
I’m feeling good. Excited to see some new people out early voting.
What is driving you to vote this year?
A lot of things bring me out to vote. It’s probably the most important election of our generation and I think it’s just to use your voice and get out there and vote for people who don’t have the ability or don’t have the representation in office in the last four years.
Who did you vote for?
Biden.
Shane Scott, 66
How are you feeling?
Great. I’ve been a blue Democrat all my life and I never thought I’d ever see anything like this.
What is driving you to vote this year?
To get rid of him. I’ve always liked Joe and I know he can step in and we know we need a national mask mandate. We’ve had seatbelt laws – with matters of public health you surrender a certain amount of your rights. I have no right to make you sick. I have an obligation to you. I have an obligation to the community. If one of my loved ones struggles to breathe and ends up intubated and ends up dying, it’s squarely at Trump’s feet. So that’s why I’m here.
Who did you vote for?
Biden.
Henry Morrison and Gloria Krejci Henry Morrison, left, and Gloria Krejci, right. Photographs by Lauren Justice/The Guardian
Henry Morrison, 19
How are you feeling?
I think I’m a little bit nervous. I hope my candidate wins, but I’ve felt that before and it hasn’t always worked out.
What is driving you to vote this year?
Mainly the environment. I think just being young and knowing that so many fossil fuels are being burned. The world is definitely going to need someone now and in the future who cares about the planet that I’m going to live in and my kids and grandkids. I think that’s very important now.
Who are you voting for?
Voting for Biden.
Gloria Krejci, 50
How are you feeling?
I’m happy to come and vote. I know that they want my vote so that’s why I decided to come early and vote.
What is driving you to vote this year?
I just really want to vote. I am a qualified voter. I don’t want to hurt anyone’s feelings if I say who I’m going to vote for because [I have been a] Republican from the beginning.
Who are you voting for?
I’m just voting for Trump still. Even though there’s a lot of people against him.
Eric Johannsen and Sally Johannsen. Photograph: Lauren Justice/The Guardian
Eric Johannsen, 53
How are you feeling?
I think it’s really important. It’s the most important election we’ve had in a long time.
What is driving you to vote this year?
I want my vote to count, and frankly I want to send Donald Trump home.
Who are you voting for?
Voting for Biden.
Sally Johannsen, 53
How are you feeling?
I think it’s the most important election. We’re fighting for the soul of our country, and if we don’t vote we can’t change things that are unacceptable to us.
What is driving you to vote this year?
Most of all I’m thinking about my young daughters . I want them to grow up knowing that there’s power within them and each individual, that we get to choose our leaders. It never should be a dictatorship. Democracy is very important. I grew up in Montreal, and when I was a young girl around their age a political party took over. We were English, they were French, and overnight it became a dictatorship. And that’s what I see happening in this country if Trump gets re-elected. And if he does we will probably move back to Canada, because this is not where I want to raise my daughters.
Who are you voting for?
Voting for Biden.


theguardian--2020-11-03--TV tonight: the moment of truth  for Trump and Biden

The road to the 2020 US election has felt even more dramatic than anticipated , taking in everything from the “ October surprise ” of Trump being admitted to hospital to the unfurling consequences of the pandemic and the Black Lives Matter movement .
Tonight , the votes are counted and there won ’ t be any shortage of options in terms of assessing the news from the battleground states .
Andrew Neil on the BBC ?
Tom Bradby on ITV ?
Or Ed Conway on Sky ?
Get ready for a nail-biter .
Ammar Kalia Aung San Suu Kyi @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , BBC Two From Nobel peace prize winner to facing accusations of genocide , Aung San Suu Kyi has had an unpredictable fall from grace .
This documentary charts her history from imprisonment to election victory before analysing her widely criticised response to violence against Rohingya Muslims .
AK Richardson enters the Clive James territory of pointing at telly and laughing , with a collection of wacky clips from around the world .
His guests this week are Ivo Graham , whose TV obsessions are Britain ’ s Got Talent and Blind Date @ @ @ @ @ @ @ classic Finding Bigfoot .
Jack Seale The periodically amusing Wall Street comedy starring Don Cheadle and Regina Hall returns .
As season two begins , everyone is dealing with the cold , hard reality of what a stock market crash really entails .
But that doesn ’ t mean there aren ’ t deals to make and opportunities to pursue if you know where to look .
Phil Harrison This series returns to Harrop Fold secondary in Salford .
Headteacher Mr Povey ’ s career is under threat , while a new year @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to fit in with the students .
We also catch up with Vincent , who promises he has reformed his mischievous ways .
AK This has been the year of the furlough documentary , revealing how UK attractions – from stately homes to zoos – have coped during lockdown .
This latest addition doubles as a comeback special , shadowing staff at the venerable theme park as they prepare for reopening in a tight 12-day window .
Graeme Virtue My Pure Land 2.10am , Channel 4 Two sisters and their mum protect their @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Masud ’ s taut and thrilling Pakistan-set western .
Based on a true story , this tale of feminist resistance is beautifully shot by Haider Zafar , with Suhaee Abro ’ s young Nazo as cool and efficient a gunslinger as any cowboy .
Paul Howlett Champions League football : Atalanta v Liverpool From 7pm , BT Sport 2 .
A group D match from the Gewiss Stadium .
Champions League football : Manchester City v Olympiakos From 7.15pm , BT Sport 3 .
A group C game from the Etihad Stadium .

Ammar Kalia, Jack Seale, Phil Harrison, Graeme Virtue and Paul Howlett

US election night
11pm, BBC One; ITV; Sky News
The road to the 2020 US election has felt even more dramatic than anticipated, taking in everything from the “October surprise” of Trump being admitted to hospital to the unfurling consequences of the pandemic and the Black Lives Matter movement. Tonight, the votes are counted and there won’t be any shortage of options in terms of assessing the news from the battleground states. Andrew Neil on the BBC? Tom Bradby on ITV? Or Ed Conway on Sky? Get ready for a nail-biter. Ammar Kalia
Aung San Suu Kyi: The Fall of an Icon
9pm, BBC Two
From Nobel peace prize winner to facing accusations of genocide, Aung San Suu Kyi has had an unpredictable fall from grace. This documentary charts her history from imprisonment to election victory before analysing her widely criticised response to violence against Rohingya Muslims. AK
Channel Hopping With Jon Richardson
9pm, Comedy Central
Richardson enters the Clive James territory of pointing at telly and laughing, with a collection of wacky clips from around the world. His guests this week are Ivo Graham, whose TV obsessions are Britain’s Got Talent and Blind Date, and Judi Love on US cult classic Finding Bigfoot. Jack Seale
Black Monday
9pm, Sky Comedy
The periodically amusing Wall Street comedy starring Don Cheadle and Regina Hall returns. As season two begins, everyone is dealing with the cold, hard reality of what a stock market crash really entails. But that doesn’t mean there aren’t deals to make and opportunities to pursue if you know where to look. Phil Harrison
Educating Greater Manchester
9.15pm, Channel 4
This series returns to Harrop Fold secondary in Salford. Headteacher Mr Povey’s career is under threat, while a new year 8 pupil arrives from Calcutta and tries to fit in with the students. We also catch up with Vincent, who promises he has reformed his mischievous ways. AK
Alton Towers: A Rollercoaster Year
10.15pm, Channel 4
This has been the year of the furlough documentary, revealing how UK attractions – from stately homes to zoos – have coped during lockdown. This latest addition doubles as a comeback special, shadowing staff at the venerable theme park as they prepare for reopening in a tight 12-day window. Graeme Virtue
Film choice
Fighting off the bandits ... Suhaee Abro as Nazo in My Pure Land
My Pure Land 2.10am, Channel 4
Two sisters and their mum protect their homestead from a bandit gang in Sarmad Masud’s taut and thrilling Pakistan-set western. Based on a true story, this tale of feminist resistance is beautifully shot by Haider Zafar, with Suhaee Abro’s young Nazo as cool and efficient a gunslinger as any cowboy. Paul Howlett
Live sport
Cycling: Vuelta a España 1.40pm, Eurosport 1. A stage from Muros to Mirador de Erazo.
Champions League football: Atalanta v Liverpool From 7pm, BT Sport 2. A group D match from the Gewiss Stadium.
Champions League football: Manchester City v Olympiakos From 7.15pm, BT Sport 3. A group C game from the Etihad Stadium.


theguardian--2020-11-03--How millions of new voters could shape the US election

If the polling is correct , Joe Biden will become the 46th president of the United States .
But four years ago , the polling was wrong – so if we want to understand the political future of the country , it ’ s important to look to more reliable sources of information than just the polls .
And to look at some voter groups that could be important .
Early voting data is an important place to start .
There is no doubt that at least 97 million votes have already been cast – those have been counted and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
And because those numbers are so high , we can predict that overall turnout is likely to break records .
In Texas , so many early votes have been cast that the current ballot count is equal to at least 108 % of all the votes counted in the state in 2016 .
This early voting data is much more valuable than simple polling because we also have information about party registration .
So we can say with a high degree of confidence that most early votes have been cast for the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not suddenly and dramatically made recent changes in their political affiliations ) .
Based on the 20 states where party ID information was available , almost half ( 45 % ) of the votes reported as of Monday afternoon had come from people registered with the Democratic party and 31 % had come from registered Republicans .
This is consistent with previous elections , where Democrats have been much more likely to cast early ballots .
A global pandemic and concerns about voter suppression have encouraged many to vote early and avoid the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ But these numbers are so high that they can ’ t be explained simply by regular voters casting their ballots early .
In fact , of those that have already voted , about 24 million ( a quarter of the ballots ) are from people who did not vote in 2016 and 8 million ( 8 % ) are from people who are voting for the first time .
In other words , turnout is increasing because non-voters are showing up .
Non-voters turning out now are a powerful force Not least because @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Trump has been having problems with two important demographic groups – seniors and suburban women , polls have suggested .
“ I saved your suburbs – women – suburban women , you ’ re supposed to love Trump , ” he said at one rally in Muskegon , Michigan .
But perhaps the most important group are those who have not voted until this election .
In 2016 , 41 % of adults who were eligible to vote did not do so .
If “ did not vote ” had been a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the country , winning all but eight states and DC .
So , if we want to better understand what is going to happen on Tuesday , we need to take a closer look at non-voters .
People who do not vote in US presidential elections are younger than those who do , according to survey data gathered by Pew Research Center after the 2016 election … And non-voters are much less likely to have completed college … Non-voters are much less likely to be have an income over $ 30k per year @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as a group , non-voters are much more likely to be people of color .
In short , non-voters are much more likely to be those who have the most to lose in an election because their race , income , education and age leaves them especially vulnerable to government policies .
But in 2020 , many people are switching sides – not from one side of the aisle to the other , but from being non-voters to becoming voters .
Each party will have worked hard not only to maintain their existing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ court certain groups of these non-voters .
Young voters are much more likely to identify as Democratic .
So Biden will hope that young Americans who previously have not voted will show up and vote for him – almost two-thirds of millennials ( people who were born between 1981 and 1996 ) say they are Democrats or Democratic-leaning .
Democrats will also be counting on Americans of color who might not have voted previously – 84 % of Black Americans and 63 % of Latinos say that they lean Democratic ( compared with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ But when it comes to education , things start to look less promising for Democrats .
A boost in turnout of Americans who haven ’ t gone to college could be good news for the Republicans who have slightly more support among that group .
In fact , much of the analysis of Trump ’ s win in 2016 focused on the educational divide in America and Republican votes from those who had completed high school or less .
Overall , it looks like a very positive picture for Democrats .
So far @ @ @ @ @ @ @ probably increasing in part because non-white , young voters are showing up and checking Biden ’ s name on their ballot papers .
Buta Democratic win also depends on three key things happening ; 1 ) Covid must not keep large numbers of Democrats at home ; 2 ) there can ’ t be widespread voter suppression causing a sudden drop in their tally ; and 3 ) the polling can not be dramatically more wrong in 2020 than it was in 2016 .
Those are big “ if ” s in a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ our assumptions are .

Sign up for the Guardian’s Fight to Vote newsletter
If the polling is correct, Joe Biden will become the 46th president of the United States. But four years ago, the polling was wrong – so if we want to understand the political future of the country, it’s important to look to more reliable sources of information than just the polls.
And to look at some voter groups that could be important.
The early voting data is valuable
Early voting data is an important place to start. There is no doubt that at least 97 million votes have already been cast – those have been counted and are far more precise than any survey. And because those numbers are so high, we can predict that overall turnout is likely to break records.
In Texas, so many early votes have been cast that the current ballot count is equal to at least 108% of all the votes counted in the state in 2016.
This early voting data is much more valuable than simple polling because we also have information about party registration. So we can say with a high degree of confidence that most early votes have been cast for the Democratic party (assuming that people have not suddenly and dramatically made recent changes in their political affiliations).
Based on the 20 states where party ID information was available, almost half (45%) of the votes reported as of Monday afternoon had come from people registered with the Democratic party and 31% had come from registered Republicans. This is consistent with previous elections, where Democrats have been much more likely to cast early ballots.
A global pandemic and concerns about voter suppression have encouraged many to vote early and avoid the potential crowds and confusion on Tuesday. But these numbers are so high that they can’t be explained simply by regular voters casting their ballots early. In fact, of those that have already voted, about 24 million (a quarter of the ballots) are from people who did not vote in 2016 and 8 million (8%) are from people who are voting for the first time.
In other words, turnout is increasing because non-voters are showing up.
Non-voters turning out now are a powerful force
Not least because of his handling of the pandemic crisis, Trump has been having problems with two important demographic groups – seniors and suburban women, polls have suggested. “I saved your suburbs – women – suburban women, you’re supposed to love Trump,” he said at one rally in Muskegon, Michigan.
But perhaps the most important group are those who have not voted until this election. In 2016, 41% of adults who were eligible to vote did not do so. If “did not vote” had been a political party, it would have swept the country, winning all but eight states and DC. So, if we want to better understand what is going to happen on Tuesday, we need to take a closer look at non-voters.
People who do not vote in US presidential elections are younger than those who do, according to survey data gathered by Pew Research Center after the 2016 election …
Source: the US Elections Project. Illustration: Mona Chalabi/The Guardian
And non-voters are much less likely to have completed college …
Source: the US Elections Project. Illustration: Mona Chalabi/The Guardian
Non-voters are much less likely to be have an income over $30k per year …
Source: the US Elections Project. Illustration: Mona Chalabi/The Guardian
And while voters are overwhelmingly white as a group, non-voters are much more likely to be people of color.
Source: the US Elections Project. Illustration: Mona Chalabi/The Guardian
In short, non-voters are much more likely to be those who have the most to lose in an election because their race, income, education and age leaves them especially vulnerable to government policies. But in 2020, many people are switching sides – not from one side of the aisle to the other, but from being non-voters to becoming voters.
Each party will have worked hard not only to maintain their existing bases of support, but also to court certain groups of these non-voters.
Young voters are much more likely to identify as Democratic. So Biden will hope that young Americans who previously have not voted will show up and vote for him – almost two-thirds of millennials (people who were born between 1981 and 1996) say they are Democrats or Democratic-leaning.
Democrats will also be counting on Americans of color who might not have voted previously – 84% of Black Americans and 63% of Latinos say that they lean Democratic (compared with 43% of white Americans). But when it comes to education, things start to look less promising for Democrats. A boost in turnout of Americans who haven’t gone to college could be good news for the Republicans who have slightly more support among that group. In fact, much of the analysis of Trump’s win in 2016 focused on the educational divide in America and Republican votes from those who had completed high school or less.
Overall, it looks like a very positive picture for Democrats. So far, turnout is up and it is probably increasing in part because non-white, young voters are showing up and checking Biden’s name on their ballot papers.
But a Democratic win also depends on three key things happening; 1) Covid must not keep large numbers of Democrats at home; 2) there can’t be widespread voter suppression causing a sudden drop in their tally; and 3) the polling cannot be dramatically more wrong in 2020 than it was in 2016. Those are big “if”s in a year that has shown just how fragile our assumptions are.


theguardian--2020-11-03--Biden joined by Lady Gaga as Trump hails crowd at final election rallies – video

As the presidential election campaign drew to a close , Biden and Trump conducted their final rallies .
In Pennsylvania @ @ @ @ @ to the stage to perform as well as have her say on the current president @ @ @ @ @ to vote against Donald Trump , a man who believes his fame gives him the @ @ @ @ @ your daughters , or sisters , or mothers or wives by any part of their @ @ @ @ @ the singer-songwriter John Legend performed and spoke passionately about his vote for Biden .
In @ @ @ @ @ proceedings with further digs at Biden , adding : 'This is not the crowd of @ @ @ @ @ lose the state of Michigan '

As the presidential election campaign drew to a close, Biden and Trump conducted their final rallies. In Pennsylvania Joe Biden welcomed Lady Gaga to the stage to perform as well as have her say on the current president. 'Now is your chance to vote against Donald Trump, a man who believes his fame gives him the right to grab one of your daughters, or sisters, or mothers or wives by any part of their bodies.' Elsewhere, the singer-songwriter John Legend performed and spoke passionately about his vote for Biden. In Michigan, Trump wrapped up proceedings with further digs at Biden, adding: 'This is not the crowd of somebody who is going to lose the state of Michigan'


theguardian--2020-11-03--US shops boarded up ahead of feared election unrest – video

In anticipation of possible election-rated civil unrest , buildings in downtown New York City and in Beverly Hills have been @ @ @ @ @ response to an NYPD advisory , stores and businesses that may be affected by demonstrations @ @ @ @ @ protect glass windows .
Security around the White House in Washington DC has also been @ @ @ @ @ : Trump and Biden make final pitches with historic election hours away – live

In anticipation of possible election-rated civil unrest, buildings in downtown New York City and in Beverly Hills have been boarded up. As a response to an NYPD advisory, stores and businesses that may be affected by demonstrations have put up boards to protect glass windows. Security around the White House in Washington DC has also been strengthened


theguardian--2020-11-03--Obama compares Trump to a 'two-bit dictator' who lies ‘every single day' – video

Former US president Barack Obama has criticised Donald Trump for casting doubt on the results of the election , likening @ @ @ @ @ the world .
Addressing a drive-in rally in Miami on Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden @ @ @ @ @ said his successor has suggested he may declare victory before all the votes are counted @ @ @ @ @ a two-bit dictator does , ' Obama said .
The former president also accused Trump @ @ @ @ @ ... the fact-checkers can ’ t keep up , it ’ s like , just @ @ @ @ @ US election 2020 : Obama accuses Trump of 'lying every single day ' at Florida @ @ @ @ @

Former US president Barack Obama has criticised Donald Trump for casting doubt on the results of the election, likening him to strongmen elsewhere in the world. Addressing a drive-in rally in Miami on Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden’s behalf, Obama said his successor has suggested he may declare victory before all the votes are counted. 'That’s something a two-bit dictator does,' Obama said. The former president also accused Trump of 'lying every single day ... the fact-checkers can’t keep up, it’s like, just over and over again'


theguardian--2020-11-05--US election 2020: Biden holds lead over Trump in tense wait for results – live updates

Look , you know and I know that as soon as enough races have been called that Biden has 270 Electoral College votes , it is still not going to be the end of this .
Wisconsin , provided Trump is within 1 % of Biden , will get recounted for sure .
And there are the legal challenges .
Reuters have just put together this handy outline of a few of the key ones : Michigan ballot-counting fight Trump ’ s campaign said on Wednesday it had filed a lawsuit in Michigan to stop state officials from counting ballots @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Michigan Court of Claims seeks to halt counting until it has an election inspector at each absentee-voter counting board .
The campaign also wanted to review ballots that were opened and counted before an inspector from its campaign was present .
Pennsylvania court battles Republican officials on Tuesday sued election officials in Montgomery County , which borders Philadelphia , accusing them of illegally counting mail-in ballots early and giving voters who submitted defective ballots a chance to re-vote .
At a hearing on Wednesday , US District Judge Timothy Savage in Philadelphia @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the integrity of the election might be affected .
In a separate lawsuit , the Trump campaign asked a judge to halt ballot counting in Pennsylvania , claiming that Republicans had been unlawfully denied access to observe the process .
Meanwhile , Republicans in Pennsylvania have asked the US Supreme Court to review a decision from the state ’ s highest court that allowed election officials to count mail-in ballots postmarked by Election Day that arrived through until Friday 6 November .
On Wednesday , Trump ’ s campaign filed a motion to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ justices said last week there was not enough time to decide the merits of the case before Election Day but indicated they might revisit it afterwards .
As a result , Pennsylvania election officials said they will segregate properly postmarked ballots that arrived after Election Day , which opens the possibility the court could subsequently strike them out .
US Postal Service litigation A judge on Wednesday said Postmaster General Louis DeJoy must answer questions about why the USPS failed to complete a court-ordered sweep for undelivered ballots in about a dozen states @ @ @ @ @ @ @ District Judge Emmet Sullivan is overseeing a lawsuit by Vote Forward , the NAACP , and Latino community advocates who have been demanding the postal service deliver mail-in ballots in time to be counted in the election .
Georgia ballot fight The Trump campaign on Wednesday evening filed a lawsuit in state court in Chatham County , Georgia .
Unlike the Pennsylvania and Michigan actions , that lawsuit is not asking a judge to halt ballot counting .
Instead , the campaign said it received information that late-arriving ballots were improperly mingled with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to enter an order making sure late-arriving ballots were separated so they would not be counted .
After the announcement just now that there will be a press conference in Nevada this morning featuring the Republican chair of the state and attorneys , presumably we ’ ll be able to add Nevada to that list soon .

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Pennsylvania secretary of state says counting will continue 'into the evening'
When will we know the US election result?
US election live: TV networks cut away as Trump lies again about result
We’re closing this live blog now and moving to a fresh one. Join us for all the latest news, results and reaction:
The @AP has not declared a winner in the presidential race, with several states still too early to call. But President Trump is renewing unfounded claims that Democrats are trying to “steal” the election. He did not back up his claim with any evidence. https://t.co/LTUEBPnbNV
The Associated Press , which the Guardian relies on to project election results due to their generally cautious approach, has responded to Donald Trump ’s false claim that he has won the election:
6 Nov 2020 00.44 GMT When will we know the US election result?
Jon Henley explains:
What usually happens?
US presidential elections are not won by the national popular vote. The winner in each state collects its electoral college votes – and needs a total of 270 to take the White House.
In most elections the result is clear – although not officially confirmed – by the end of the night. Major American media outlets “call” each state for one of the candidates. While not based on the final vote count, that projection is almost invariably accurate.
This means an accurate tally of electoral college votes can be made and a winner declared. In 2016, that happened at 2.30am in Washington when Trump reached the required 270.
Why is that not happening this time?
Mainly because of the Covid-19 pandemic, large numbers of voters – about 68% of the total, compared with 34% in 2016 – cast their ballots early, including by post.
Counting postal votes is slower because voter and witness signatures and addresses must be checked, and ballots smoothed out before being fed into counting machines. Some states start that verification process long before election day, meaning the count itself can get under way as soon as polls close. Others, however, do not allow that.
Which states are we talking about?
Five states have yet to be called: Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Alaska. Several news organizations, including the Associated Press and Fox News’ decision desk, have called Arizona for Joe Biden. The Trump campaign is arguing, however, that call was made too early. Its next update is not due until 9pm ET on Thursday.
Alaska will end up in the Republican column with near certainty.
Pennsylvania officials say they expect most votes will be counted by Friday.
The Democratic challenger is narrowly ahead in Nevada, with only Democratic-leaning late postal ballots left to tally. Officials have said no more results will be released in Nevada until midday ET on Thursday.
In North Carolina, while Trump is the clear favourite, the state accepts postal ballots until 12 November – although that is expected to make little difference.
What else is complicating matters?
Roughly half of all states will accept postal votes that arrive after election day as long as they carry a postmark of no later than 3 November, so postal delays may mean some ballots are not processed until days later: Pennsylvania has said results will not be considered complete until the deadline of Friday.
There has also reportedly been an increase in the number of provisional ballots cast by people who asked for a postal vote but then decided to go to the polling station in person instead. These need careful checking to make sure no one has voted twice.
Read more:


theguardian--2020-11-05--Fox draws Trump campaign's ire after early call of Arizona for Biden

When Donald Trump supporters gathered outside a vote-counting centre in Phoenix , Arizona , on Wednesday night , they had a simple and perhaps unexpected chant : “ Fox News Sucks !
” Although the channel has become synonymous with Trump ’ s rise to power , in the last two days Fox News has become the focus of the Trump campaign ’ s anger after it made an early call on Tuesday night that the state of Arizona was going to Joe Biden .
In the process , the channel switched the media ’ s attention away from Trump @ @ @ @ @ @ @ undermined the president ’ s attempts to focus attention on the vote counting in Pennsylvania .
Such was the level of fury within the Trump campaign at the call that his team reportedly attempted to have the decision overturned .
According to the New York Times , this involved Jared Kushner contacting Fox ’ s owner , Rupert Murdoch , while in Vanity Fair ’ s reporting it was the president himself who called the media mogul .
Regardless of who was placing the calls , Fox has stuck by its decision – @ @ @ @ @ @ @ its viewers who have bombarded the channel with complaints .
The decision to call the ultra-close Arizona race for Biden – a call that was later copied by the Associated Press , which provides results data to the Guardian – was made by Fox ’ s Arnon Mishkin , who runs the broadcaster ’ s decision desk .
Before the election , Mishkin , a registered Democrat who has worked for Fox News for decades , had made clear that he would not be swayed by internal pressure in making calls for states @ @ @ @ @ @ @ been portrayed as a defender of the truth , representing the uneasy balance that exists between Fox ’ s straight news division and the highly opinionated rightwing hosts who shape the external perception of the channel .
On Thursday , Mishkin , who has become a target for angry Trump supporters , told the channel ’ s viewers that he would not be changing his mind on the basis that “ we strongly believe that our call will stand , and that ’ s why we ’ re not pulling back the call @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s team that they could still edge ahead in the ultra-close race as more votes were counted , a visibly exasperated Mishkin pushed back and said the objections were like talking about what would happen “ if a frog had wings ” .
“ We ’ re confident that the data will basically look like the data we ’ ve noticed throughout the count in Arizona , ” he said .
Trump and his team have an increasingly complicated relationship with Fox News .
Throughout his presidency he has been an obsessive watcher @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on his Twitter feed about its audience ratings when he objects to its coverage and phoning in to dispute specific issues .
On the day of the election he complained on air about the channel ’ s coverage not being sufficiently supportive : “ Somebody said what ’ s the difference between this and four years ago , and I say Fox … In the old days you wouldn ’ t put ‘ Sleepy Joe ’ on every time he opens his mouth .
You had Democrats on more than you had Republicans @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I ’ m just telling people.
” One of the bigger questions in US rightwing media is what happens if Trump loses the election , with longstanding speculation that he could be tempted to start his own media outlet in a bid to communicate directly with his supporters .

When Donald Trump supporters gathered outside a vote-counting centre in Phoenix, Arizona, on Wednesday night, they had a simple and perhaps unexpected chant: “Fox News Sucks!”
Although the channel has become synonymous with Trump’s rise to power, in the last two days Fox News has become the focus of the Trump campaign’s anger after it made an early call on Tuesday night that the state of Arizona was going to Joe Biden.
In the process, the channel switched the media’s attention away from Trump’s substantial success in Florida and undermined the president’s attempts to focus attention on the vote counting in Pennsylvania.
Such was the level of fury within the Trump campaign at the call that his team reportedly attempted to have the decision overturned. According to the New York Times, this involved Jared Kushner contacting Fox’s owner, Rupert Murdoch, while in Vanity Fair’s reporting it was the president himself who called the media mogul. Regardless of who was placing the calls, Fox has stuck by its decision – much to the anger of many of its viewers who have bombarded the channel with complaints.
01:31 Fox News doubles down on calling Arizona for Biden – video
The decision to call the ultra-close Arizona race for Biden – a victory that was later also declared by the Associated Press, which provides results data to the Guardian – was made by Fox’s Arnon Mishkin, who runs the broadcaster’s decision desk. Before the election, Mishkin, a registered Democrat who has worked for Fox News for decades, had made clear that he would not be swayed by internal pressure in making calls for states.
Q&A How will the Guardian report US election results? Show Though most people will probably be watching the results of the race for the White House, more than 7,000 elections took place across the US on 3 November. In the age of disinformation, it is more important than ever that media outlets report election results as clearly and transparently as possible. The Guardian will be using data collected and analysed by the Associated Press (AP) as the source for when we will call election results for the presidency, Senate, House races and others. AP has a team of thousands of specialists and correspondents across America, who have trusted relationships with local officials. This will guide their data-led assessment of when it's time to call a race. There are a number of other highly reputable election "decision desks" in US media. They may call races earlier than AP. While the Guardian will report this is happening, we will rely on AP's data to make our own final call. Should any candidate declare victory prematurely, we will report this claim, but make clear that it is not valid. The only measure of victory is a complete count of all outstanding ballots. Was this helpful? Thank you for your feedback.
As a result, Mishkin has been portrayed as a defender of the truth, representing the uneasy balance that exists between Fox’s straight news division and the highly opinionated rightwing hosts who shape the external perception of the channel.
On Thursday, Mishkin, who has become a target for angry Trump supporters, told the channel’s viewers that he would not be changing his mind on the basis that “we strongly believe that our call will stand, and that’s why we’re not pulling back the call”.
Dismissing claims from Trump’s team that they could still edge ahead in the ultra-close race as more votes were counted, a visibly exasperated Mishkin pushed back and said the objections were like talking about what would happen “if a frog had wings”.
“We’re confident that the data will basically look like the data we’ve noticed throughout the count in Arizona,” he said.
01:18 Protesters gather outside election centre in Phoenix as Biden's Arizona 'win' challenged – video
Trump and his team have an increasingly complicated relationship with Fox News. Throughout his presidency he has been an obsessive watcher of the channel, often providing commentary on his Twitter feed about its audience ratings when he objects to its coverage and phoning in to dispute specific issues.
On the day of the election he complained on air about the channel’s coverage not being sufficiently supportive: “Somebody said what’s the difference between this and four years ago, and I say Fox … In the old days you wouldn’t put ‘Sleepy Joe’ on every time he opens his mouth. You had Democrats on more than you had Republicans. I’m not complaining. I’m just telling people.”
One of the bigger questions in US rightwing media is what happens if Trump loses the election, with longstanding speculation that he could be tempted to start his own media outlet in a bid to communicate directly with his supporters.


theguardian--2020-11-05--US swing states: what is the state of play?

Election Day was Tuesday .
It ’ s Thursday and we still don ’ t know who the next president of the United States is going to be .
Here ’ s how the key states are looking now … 11 electoral votes Called for Biden by AP and Fox News , but seems still in play Biden leads 50.5-48.1 , with 86 % counted .
Trump needs to win nearly two-thirds of the remaining votes Next update : not before 9pm ET on Thursday ( 2am GMT Friday ) 16 electoral votes Toss-up Trump leads 49.6–49.1 , with 95 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ % of remaining votes Next update : Georgia ’ s secretary of state says they hope to have results on Thursday .
The uncounted ballots include those from population-dense counties that lean Democratic .
Biden is outperforming Hillary Clinton ’ s 2016 vote in those counties .
Six electoral votes Toss-up but leans Biden Biden leads 49.3-48.7 , with 86 % counted The lead is fewer than 8,000 but remaining mail-in is expected to skew Democrat Next update : Result expected noon ET/5pm UK .
Trump narrowly lost Nevada in 2016 as the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the past decade .
15 electoral votes Toss-up but leans Trump Trump leads 50.1-48.7 , with 95 % counted Biden needs two-thirds of mail-in ballots to go his way Next update : Mail ballots are still accepted if they arrive by 12 November , so there could be a long wait for certainty .
Trump prematurely claimed early on Wednesday that he had won the state .
There are up to 116,000 mail ballots left to count .
20 electoral votes Toss-up Trump leads 50.7-48.1 , with 89 % of the vote in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in strong Democrat urban areas Next update : Result expected on Friday , but already subject to Trump legal challenges over mail-in ballots being counted that are postmarked on election day or before but arrive after 3 November .
Trump wants them tossed out .
• None Associated Press contributed to the reporting in this article

Election Day was Tuesday. It’s Thursday and we still don’t know who the next president of the United States is going to be. Here’s how the key states are looking now …
Arizona
11 electoral votes
Called for Biden by AP and Fox News
Biden leads 50.5-48.1, with 86% counted.
Trump needs to win nearly two-thirds of the remaining votes
Next update: not before 9pm ET on Thursday (2am GMT Friday)
Georgia
16 electoral votes
Toss-up
Trump leads 49.6–49.1, with 95% counted
Biden needs to win 60% of remaining votes
Next update: Georgia’s secretary of state says they hope to have results on Thursday. The uncounted ballots include those from population-dense counties that lean Democratic. Biden is outperforming Hillary Clinton’s 2016 vote in those counties.
Michigan
16 electoral votes
Called for Biden
Nevada
Six electoral votes
Toss-up but leans Biden
Biden leads 49.3-48.7, with 86% counted
The lead is fewer than 8,000 but remaining mail-in is expected to skew Democrat
Next update: Result expected noon ET/5pm UK. Trump narrowly lost Nevada in 2016 as the state has trended toward the Democrats in the past decade.
North Carolina
15 electoral votes
Toss-up but leans Trump
Trump leads 50.1-48.7, with 95% counted
Biden needs two-thirds of mail-in ballots to go his way
Next update: Mail ballots are still accepted if they arrive by 12 November, so there could be a long wait for certainty. Trump prematurely claimed early on Wednesday that he had won the state. There are up to 116,000 mail ballots left to count.
Pennsylvania
20 electoral votes
Toss-up
Trump leads 50.7-48.1, with 89% of the vote in
Most votes yet to be counted are in strong Democrat urban areas
Next update: Result expected on Friday, but already subject to Trump legal challenges over mail-in ballots being counted that are postmarked on election day or before but arrive after 3 November. Trump wants them tossed out.
Wisconsin
10 electoral votes
Called for Biden
Biden’s lead is 49.4-48.8


theguardian--2020-11-05--When will we know the US election result?

Donald Trump ’ s false claim to have won the US presidential election while millions of votes remain to be counted has focused the spotlight once more on one of the big uncertainties of the 2020 race : when will we know the result ?
It could take days , weeks or even months , depending on what happens .
What usually happens ?
US presidential elections are not won by the national popular vote .
The winner in each state collects its electoral college votes – and needs a total of 270 to take the White House .
In @ @ @ @ @ @ @ although not officially confirmed – by the end of the night .
Major American media outlets “ call ” each state for one of the candidates .
While not based on the final vote count , that projection is almost invariably accurate .
This means an accurate tally of electoral college votes can be made and a winner declared .
In 2016 , that happened at 2.30am in Washington when Trump reached the required 270 .
Why is that not happening this time ?
Mainly because of the Covid-19 pandemic , large numbers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the total , compared with 34 % in 2016 – cast their ballots early , including by post .
Counting postal votes is slower because voter and witness signatures and addresses must be checked , and ballots smoothed out before being fed into counting machines .
Some states start that verification process long before election day , meaning the count itself can get under way as soon as polls close .
Others , however , do not allow that .
Which states are we talking about ?
Five states have yet to be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Carolina , Pennsylvania and Alaska .
Several news organizations , including the Associated Press and Fox News ’ decision desk , have called Arizona for Joe Biden .
The Trump campaign is arguing , however , that call was made too early .
Its next update is not due until 9pm ET on Thursday .
Alaska will end up in the Republican column with near certainty .
Pennsylvania officials say they expect most votes will be counted by Friday .
The Democratic challenger is narrowly ahead in Nevada , with only Democratic-leaning late @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have said no more results will be released in Nevada until midday ET on Thursday .
In North Carolina , while Trump is the clear favourite , the state accepts postal ballots until 12 November – although that is expected to make little difference .
What else is complicating matters ?
Roughly half of all states will accept postal votes that arrive after election day as long as they carry a postmark of no later than 3 November , so postal delays may mean some ballots are not processed until days later : @ @ @ @ @ @ @ considered complete until the deadline of Friday .
There has also reportedly been an increase in the number of provisional ballots cast by people who asked for a postal vote but then decided to go to the polling station in person instead .
These need careful checking to make sure no one has voted twice .
In the 2000 race , the Democratic candidate , Al Gore , famously lost Florida by just more than 500 votes out of a total of nearly 6m , costing him the election .
After a disputed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ George W Bush was declared the winner .
More than 300 lawsuits have already been filed over alleged breaches of electoral law in the 2020 election , according to reports , and more can be expected over accusations of postal voting irregularities and changes to voting rules due to the pandemic .
Recounts have to be a strong possibility in one or more of the key swing states , and Trump said in his first post-election address late on Tuesday that he would be going to the supreme court in an attempt to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ far from clear how feasible such a move would be , anything like it could delay a final vote for weeks .

Donald Trump’s repeated claims to have won the US presidential election while votes remain to be counted have focused the spotlight once more on one of the big uncertainties of the 2020 race: when will we know the final result?
It could take days, weeks or even months, depending on what happens.
What usually happens?
US presidential elections are not won by the national popular vote. The winner in each state collects its electoral college votes – and needs a total of 270 to take the White House.
In most elections the result is clear – although not officially confirmed – by the end of the night. Major American media outlets “call” each state for one of the candidates. While not based on the final vote count, that projection is almost invariably accurate.
This means an accurate tally of electoral college votes can be made and a winner declared. In 2016, that happened at 2.30am in Washington when Trump reached the required 270.
Why is that not happening this time?
Mainly because of the Covid-19 pandemic, large numbers of voters – about 68% of the total, compared with 34% in 2016 – cast their ballots early, including by post.
Counting postal votes is slower because voter and witness signatures and addresses must be checked, and ballots smoothed out before being fed into counting machines. Some states start that verification process long before election day, meaning the count itself can get under way as soon as polls close.
There was no early processing in multiple key battleground states this year, however, because Republican-led state legislatures refused urgent requests from local elections officials to pass new laws to allow extra time for ballot processing. Such a refusal in Pennsylvania produced enormous backlogs in cities such as Pittsburgh and Philadelphia, which has gone from counting about 6,000 mail-in ballots in 2016 to more than 350,000 this year.
Which states are we talking about?
Five states have yet to be called: Alaska, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina and Pennsylvania. Several news organizations, including the Associated Press and Fox News’ decision desk, have called Arizona for Joe Biden. The Trump campaign is arguing, however, that call was made too early.
Alaska will end up in the Republican column with near certainty.
The race is extremely tight in Georgia, where a recount has been announced by its secretary of state. Biden pulled ahead of Trump by 1,097 votes on Friday morning, with 99% of votes reported.
The Democratic challenger is ahead in Nevada, with only Democratic-leaning late postal ballots left to tally. But by state law, ballots postmarked on election day can be counted as long as they are received by 5pm on 10 November, which means counting in the state could continue through the weekend.
In North Carolina, while Trump is the clear favourite, the state accepts postal ballots until 12 November – although that is expected to make little difference. State officials have said a full result would not be known until next week.
Biden took the lead in Pennsylvania on Friday morning. He’s been winning the mail-in ballot counts by huge margins, and could very well take the state. Pennsylvania officials had expected to count most votes by the end of Friday, but the process was continuing into Saturday with Biden’s lead widening.
What else is complicating matters?
Roughly half of all states will accept postal votes that arrive after election day as long as they carry a postmark of no later than 3 November, so postal delays may mean some ballots are not processed until days later: Pennsylvania has said results will not be considered complete until the deadline of Friday.
There has also reportedly been an increase in the number of provisional ballots cast by people who asked for a postal vote but then decided to go to the polling station in person instead. These need careful checking to make sure no one has voted twice.
02:24 Trump repeats baseless election fraud claims as Biden calls for calm – video report
The really big unknown: a disputed result
In the 2000 race, the Democratic candidate, Al Gore, famously lost Florida by just more than 500 votes out of a total of nearly 6m, costing him the election. After a disputed recount and a supreme court ruling, George W Bush was declared the winner.
More than 300 lawsuits have already been filed over alleged breaches of electoral law in the 2020 election, according to reports, and more can be expected over accusations of postal voting irregularities and changes to voting rules due to the pandemic.
Trump and his campaign have this week already sued to halt vote-counting in Pennsylvania and Georgia (which have not yet been called by Associated Press) and Michigan, which the AP called for Biden. Judges in Georgia and Michigan quickly dismissed the campaign’s lawsuits on Thursday.
Trump’s campaign has also requested a recount in Wisconsin, which AP called for Biden.
There is no evidence the campaign’s legal challenges will have a bearing on the election result under the law.