theguardian--2020-10-03--How healthy is Trump? Years of misinformation  make it difficult to know

On Friday morning , ex-White House doctor Ronny Jackson confidently told Fox News that Donald Trump was not exhibiting any symptoms from coronavirus .
Shortly after , a White House official came forward to confirm that Trump was , actually , experiencing symptoms – albeit minor ones – and reports said Trump had appeared tired on Wednesday and “ seemed lethargic ” on Thursday .
On Friday afternoon he was taken to Walter Reed military hospital .
The flip-flop after Trump and the first lady , Melania Trump , tested positive for coronavirus fit a long-running pattern of misdirection by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s health – making it difficult to trust any official statements even at a time of intense crisis .
The litany of incidents is long .
Eyebrows were raised over Trump ’ s supposed robustness during his first presidential campaign , after his then doctor released a hyperbolic letter about his health .
“ If elected , Mr Trump , I can state unequivocally , will be the healthiest individual ever elected to the presidency , ” Harold Bornstein wrote in December 2015 .
The letter gushed that Trump ’ s “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and his bloodwork was “ astonishingly excellent ” .
Nearly three years later Bornstein confessed that Trump had dictated the note himself , but the skulduggery over Trump ’ s wellbeing did not end there .
Bornstein , whose flowing hair , grey beard and penchant for chunky silver necklaces gave him an unlikely appearance for a man of medicine , also claimed that Trump ’ s longtime bodyguard , Keith Schiller , had conducted a “ raid ” on his office in February 2017 , scooping up Trump ’ s medical @ @ @ @ @ @ @ dispatch about Trump ’ s fitness wasn ’ t the last doctor ’ s note to be questioned .
In 2018 Jackson reported that Donald Trump weighed in at 239lb during his annual medical exam .
That put Trump a pound shy of being obese .
But in Jackson ’ s report , he had clocked Trump as being 6ft 3in tall – meaning the president had apparently grown an inch since 2012 , when his driving license listed him as 6ft 2in .
Using Trump ’ s driving license height , he @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Many at the time were quick to point to photos of Trump standing next to Alex Rodriguez , the former New York Yankees star , who is 6ft 3in tall .
In the pictures , Rodriguez is clearly taller than Trump .
Similarly , photos of Trump standing next to the 6ft 1in Barack Obama in 2017 seemed to show that the pair were the same height .
When discussing his 2018 report , Jackson told reporters Trump ’ s health was “ excellent ” .
Asked how the president , who @ @ @ @ @ @ @ who avoids exercise because he believes it drains the body ’ s “ finite ” energy resources , could be in such great shape , Jackson said .
“ I told the president that if he had a healthier diet over the last 20 years , he might live to be 200 years old .
But I would say the answer to your question is he has incredibly good genes and it ’ s just the way God made him.
” Jackson , a former rear admiral in the navy who resigned from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ running for the House of Representatives in November , and has been enthusiastically endorsed by Trump .
In 2019 Trump ’ s medical revealed that the president had gained weight , and was now considered obese .
More serious , and clandestine , was Trump ’ s impromptu hospital trip , on a Saturday , in November 2019 .
Just as contradictory messaging was sent out about Trump ’ s Covid-19 symptoms , the White House offered differing descriptions of why the president was taken to the Walter Reed national military medical center @ @ @ @ @ @ @ White House press secretary , Stephanie Grisham , initially said Trump had gone to the hospital to begin his annual medical , but CNN soon reported that the visit “ did not follow the protocol of a routine presidential medical exam ” , and was not listed on the White House schedule .
Two days after the trip , the Trump administration language changed .
Trump was no longer at hospital to begin his medical , but was instead undergoing an “ interim checkup ” .
In September this year a book by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ alleged that Vice-President Mike Pence was put on standby as Trump went to the hospital .
Trump and his aides have also sought to exaggerate his mental acuity , as well as his physical duress .
The president has repeatedly said he aced a “ difficult ” cognitive test , as Trump has attacked Joe Biden ’ s sharpness .
In an interview with Trump in June , Fox News anchor Chris Wallace brought up the issue of the cognitive test .
Wallace said he had taken the test himself .
“ It @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” Wallace said .
“ They have a picture and it says : ‘ What ’ s that ?
’ and it ’ s an elephant .
”

On Friday morning, ex-White House doctor Ronny Jackson confidently told Fox News that Donald Trump was not exhibiting any symptoms from coronavirus.
Shortly after, a White House official came forward to confirm that Trump was, actually, experiencing symptoms – albeit minor ones – and reports said Trump had appeared tired on Wednesday and “seemed lethargic” on Thursday. On Friday afternoon he was taken to Walter Reed military hospital.
The flip-flop after Trump and the first lady, Melania Trump, tested positive for coronavirus fit a long-running pattern of misdirection by Trump and his aides over the president’s health – making it difficult to trust any official statements even at a time of intense crisis.
The litany of incidents is long. Eyebrows were raised over Trump’s supposed robustness during his first presidential campaign, after his then doctor released a hyperbolic letter about his health.
“If elected, Mr Trump, I can state unequivocally, will be the healthiest individual ever elected to the presidency,” Harold Bornstein wrote in December 2015.
The letter gushed that Trump’s “physical strength and stamina are extraordinary”, and his bloodwork was “astonishingly excellent”.
Nearly three years later Bornstein confessed that Trump had dictated the note himself, but the skulduggery over Trump’s wellbeing did not end there.
Bornstein, whose flowing hair, grey beard and penchant for chunky silver necklaces gave him an unlikely appearance for a man of medicine, also claimed that Trump’s longtime bodyguard, Keith Schiller, had conducted a “raid” on his office in February 2017, scooping up Trump’s medical charts and lab reports.
The gushing dispatch about Trump’s fitness wasn’t the last doctor’s note to be questioned.
In 2018 Jackson reported that Donald Trump weighed in at 239lb during his annual medical exam.
That put Trump a pound shy of being obese.
But in Jackson’s report, he had clocked Trump as being 6ft 3in tall – meaning the president had apparently grown an inch since 2012, when his driving license listed him as 6ft 2in.
Using Trump’s driving license height, he would have been classed as medically obese.
Many at the time were quick to point to photos of Trump standing next to Alex Rodriguez, the former New York Yankees star, who is 6ft 3in tall. In the pictures, Rodriguez is clearly taller than Trump. Similarly, photos of Trump standing next to the 6ft 1in Barack Obama in 2017 seemed to show that the pair were the same height.
When discussing his 2018 report, Jackson told reporters Trump’s health was “excellent”.
Asked how the president, who has a penchant for fast food and who avoids exercise because he believes it drains the body’s “finite” energy resources, could be in such great shape, Jackson said.
“I told the president that if he had a healthier diet over the last 20 years, he might live to be 200 years old. But I would say the answer to your question is he has incredibly good genes and it’s just the way God made him.”
Jackson, a former rear admiral in the navy who resigned from the White House in 2018, is running for the House of Representatives in November, and has been enthusiastically endorsed by Trump.
01:45 Trump medical team 'cautiously optimistic' after Covid hospital admission – video
In 2019 Trump’s medical revealed that the president had gained weight, and was now considered obese.
More serious, and clandestine, was Trump’s impromptu hospital trip, on a Saturday, in November 2019.
Just as contradictory messaging was sent out about Trump’s Covid-19 symptoms, the White House offered differing descriptions of why the president was taken to the Walter Reed national military medical center, just outside Washington.
The then White House press secretary, Stephanie Grisham, initially said Trump had gone to the hospital to begin his annual medical, but CNN soon reported that the visit “did not follow the protocol of a routine presidential medical exam”, and was not listed on the White House schedule.
Two days after the trip, the Trump administration language changed. Trump was no longer at hospital to begin his medical, but was instead undergoing an “interim checkup”.
In September this year a book by the New York Times reporter Michael Schmidt alleged that Vice-President Mike Pence was put on standby as Trump went to the hospital.
Trump and his aides have also sought to exaggerate his mental acuity, as well as his physical duress.
The president has repeatedly said he aced a “difficult” cognitive test, as Trump has attacked Joe Biden’s sharpness.
In an interview with Trump in June, Fox News anchor Chris Wallace brought up the issue of the cognitive test. Wallace said he had taken the test himself.
“It’s not the hardest test,” Wallace said.
“They have a picture and it says: ‘What’s that?’ and it’s an elephant.”


theguardian--2020-10-03--HR McMaster on serving Trump: 'If you're not on the pitch, you're going to get your ass kicked'

HR McMaster was national security adviser for a little more than a year .
His struggles to work with Donald Trump have been widely reported .
After a year , the blowhard mogul fired the military intellectual – by tweet .
Two years later , the retired general has written a book .
Despite his travails , it is not a White House tell-all .
Battlegrounds : The Fight to Defend the Free World contains elements of memoir but is more concerned with discussing US foreign policy – on Russia , China , the Middle East , Iran – while @ @ @ @ @ @ @ political division drastically deepened by Trump .
“ I talk about how we ’ re more connected to each other electronically than ever before , ” McMaster says , by phone to New York from Stanford , where he ’ s now a fellow at the Hoover Institution .
“ But more distant from each other psychologically and emotionally than ever before .
So I recommend that we come together on , you know , basketball courts and rugby pitches , to renew our fellowship with one another and to transcend the vitriol @ @ @ @ @ @ @ From an American political figure , mention of rugby might seem rather unusual .
But it ’ s not unexpected here .
McMaster and I have spoken before , about a sport that might be – after his family , the US military and history – the fourth great love of his life .
That interview , shortly after McMaster was fired , rather nonplussed some in a Washington press corps eager to hear him dish the dirt on Trump .
So might this .
“ What I love about rugby , ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ some real lessons for us .
We can fight like hell with each other on the pitch , and then all have a pint afterwards at the party .
And become fast friends with the same people .
I just think it ’ s super important that we bring that attitude to our civic lives and to our communities.
” In the US military community , a growing chorus is speaking up against Trump .
McMaster has not joined it .
He says he has never voted and went to the White House @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the president .
Asked about controversy over Trump ’ s reportedly dismissive attitude to US servicemen and women , even those killed in combat , he has said he did not hear such comments himself .
But it would be wrong to say he does not criticize Trump .
Battlegrounds is a critical look at foreign policy , from a hawkish but internationalist standpoint , praising the president in some instances but generally at odds with his administration and others , particularly that of Barack Obama .
On the promotional trail , from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ PBS Newshour , McMaster has commented on Trump ’ s sycophancy towards Vladimir Putin , his stoking of divisions encouraged by Putin ’ s Russia and even his “ aiding and abetting ” of new election interference from Moscow ; his failure to condemn white supremacists ; his suggestion he might not leave office if beaten by Joe Biden in November .
As the election approaches , Trump seeks foreign policy wins .
When it comes to the “ forever wars ” in Iraq , Afghanistan and Syria , he has sought to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the cost to allies .
In Afghanistan , peace talks are ongoing .
Trump ’ s policy , McMaster says , is “ based on what we want the war to be .
We want the war to be in a situation that is conducive to our withdrawal , right ?
So therefore , we create the enemy we want .
In the Taliban , we conjure an enemy that has completely disconnected from transnational terrorist organizations or jihadist terrorists that pose a threat to us , like Al-Qaida .
Well , that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ We create a Taliban that will not pursue the same brutal form of sharia that it imposed on the Afghan people and Afghan women in particular , but the entire population from 1996 to 2001 .
And so I think it is utterly unrealistic .
What is astounding about Afghanistan is , if we wanted to get out , we should just have gotten out .
What we ’ ve done is , we ’ ve gotten out in a way that greatly complicates the situation for the Afghan government and the Afghan @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not want anything to do with the Taliban.
” To McMaster this is a perfect example of “ strategic narcissism ” , a concept coined by the political scientist Hans Morgenthau and examined in depth in Battlegrounds .
McMaster says it ’ s a term he “ started using a few years ago ” .
It seems doubtful the distinctly un-strategic narcissist in the Oval Office ever listened if he tried to explain .
When he went to the White House , McMaster was known as a military thinker , a soldier who @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Gulf war , wrote a book about Vietnam and pursued counter-insurgency tactics in the wars after 9/11 .
“ I tell a story , ” he says .
“ My sidekick in the Middle East oftentimes was Joel Rayburn , who is in the state department now [ as special envoy for Syria ] .
And at one stage when we couldn ’ t fathom the disconnect between reality on the ground in Iraq and our policy , [ which seemed ] a rush to failure , he said , ‘ You know @ @ @ @ @ @ @ re in I-raq , but people in Washington are basing the policy on My-raq .
And My-raq is anything you want it to be .
“ It ’ s dark humor , because of course the stakes were pretty high , life and death in a combat situation .
But I think that captures strategic narcissism perfectly.
” On the page , McMaster describes his family ’ s bafflement when , preparing to go to Washington , he packed “ more books than clothes ” .
Once in the Trump administration he served @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ardent reader , the defense secretary and retired Marine Corps general James Mattis .
McMaster ’ s Vietnam book , Dereliction of Duty , grew from his history thesis and described the failures of the joint chiefs of staff who advised Lyndon B Johnson in the early days of a war that spiraled into nightmare .
It is regarded as a classic .
“ In this case I was fortunate that I had the opportunity to research and write and think about national security decision-making and presidential decision-making in the context of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ So I brought with me that perspective and determination to avoid at least the same pitfalls that I identified from a historical perspective.
” Did he avoid them ?
“ Yeah , I think I did .
I think we did , as an actual National Security Council staff .
I can only speak of those 13 months , but in those 13 months we put into place a process that I think prevented us from repeating the mistakes that I identified about the period during which Vietnam became an American war @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of 1965.
” In the White House , McMaster faced issues including Russian election interference ; North Korea and its nuclear threat ; an Iran nuclear deal Trump wanted to trash ; and the rise of China .
He sought , he says , to “ understand problems holistically before rushing to action , to not tell the president what the president wanted to hear , but to give him multiple options and assessments of those options .
And to not allow domestic political considerations to shape those options in a way that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” It is hard to say the US under Trump has made much progress on any of the overseas realities above , when McMaster was in office or since .
Russia is interfering in the election again , Trump conspicuous by his silence ; North Korea has increased its nuclear threat , despite Trump ’ s courtship of Kim Jong-un ; Trump did pull out of the Iran deal ; and Trump ’ s trade war with China has morphed into a blame game over the coronavirus pandemic – in the midst of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ statistic .
But it is easy to say no adviser could have corralled Trump over one such issue , never mind the whole horrific smorgasbord .
And unlike his successor as national security adviser , McMaster has resisted the temptation to vent spleen in print .
John Bolton wrote The Room Where It Happened , a barrage of bombshells about China , Russia and the Ukraine scandal which led to Trump ’ s impeachment , a book which seems to pour notes and memos directly on to the page and which the White @ @ @ @ @ @ @ he has “ skimmed ” Bolton ’ s book .
“ I ’ ve looked at how he dealt with particular topics , but I haven ’ t had the chance to read it.
” If not quite a “ no comment ” , it ’ s close .
Of other books by former Trump insiders , McMaster says he ’ s seen just a few .
“ I once asked one of my advisers at UNC Chapel Hill , a great historian of the American Revolution , a wonderful man , Don @ @ @ @ @ @ @ recent book .
And he said , ‘ HR , historians do not read books .
They use them.
’ So , I ’ ve skimmed some of them.
” “ The book that I ’ m reading right now is Black Wave by Kim Ghattas , which is a treatment of Saudi Arabia , Iran and their rivalry .
That ’ s really quite good .
And then the other book I ’ m reading is Active Measures by Thomas Ridd , which is a history of Russian disinformation and political warfare.
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ the sharp end of such efforts , describing Moscow ’ s role in the promotion of a # FireMcMaster hashtag which Trump eventually obliged .
He has described dismay at the president ’ s reluctance to back his intelligence community over such concerns .
‘ The president was not an isolationist ’ About the challenges of briefing Trump , McMaster remains diplomatic , sidestepping discussion of what Bolton called “ stories , true or not , of Trump tuning out [ McMaster ’ s ] long , exhausting briefings ” .
“ I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as busy as any president is , to get to read a whole book , ” he says .
“ And so , you know , my first few days in the administration , we had an all hands meeting .
And I said , ‘ Hey , we can develop what we think are the perfect policy products for the president and ask the president to conform to what we think is the best way to convey information , or we can convey information the way that the president likes to receive @ @ @ @ @ @ @ we did when I was there .
And I think in those 13 months , we were effective in doing it.
” But if McMaster ’ s policy creed was fundamentally interventionist , and Trump ’ s political instinct fundamentally isolationist , surely McMaster was therefore one of the “ adults in the room ” , widely reported to have kept Trump somewhere near the straight and narrow until he finally broke free ?
“ Well , what would I think is that the president was not an isolationist .
He was a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sustained , especially military engagements abroad , if those engagements were not obviously in the interests of the American people , or they didn ’ t prioritize American security.
” “ What I try to argue in the book is not an argument for massive troop commitments .
abroad .
It ’ s an argument for , I think I would call it sensible and sustained engagement that integrates all elements of national power , including military but as part of a broader diplomatic and economic and informational and intelligence approach to these @ @ @ @ @ @ @ In search of a metaphor , he returns to the rugby field .
“ The point I try to make in the book is that these matches , you know , are already under way .
And if you ’ re not on the pitch , you ’ re going to get your ass kicked.
” McMaster was kicked out of the White House by Trump .
Parts of his vision are strikingly at odds with the president – he rejects climate change denialism , writes that “ immigrants have been and remain @ @ @ @ @ @ @ advantages ” .
Trump will never listen .
Perhaps a successor will .
“ I think it ’ s possible to prioritize American interests , ” McMaster says , “ but also to recognize that the best way for America to advance those interests is from within a community of like-minded countries and nations , committed to preserving the competitive advantages that our free and open societies and our free market economic systems have enjoyed.
” McMaster is determined interviews should not become tell-alls .
But it turns out he is willing to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ April 2018 , the New Yorker reported that Trump , ever obsessed with appearances , had despaired of his adviser ’ s dress sense .
The suit McMaster wore instead of his uniform as a serving lieutenant general made him look “ like a beer salesman ” , the president reportedly said .
“ After serving in the military for 33 years , I already assumed no one was going to come to me for fashion sense , right ?
But it ’ s so funny , I think I will tell a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ an administration with a lot of people who have your wealthier business backgrounds .
And so I ’ m talking to Gary Cohn [ then chief economic adviser , formerly of Goldman Sachs ] , it ’ s my first day in the West Wing , first full day anyway , and he says to me , ‘ Hey , nice suit there , ’ you know .
And I say , ‘ Thanks , but the bad news is it ’ ll set you back 90 bucks.
’ Because I ’ d @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tailor there .
I showed him the label : “ Mobin Tailor , Kabul.
” Among the Trump books lie many other instances of president mocking adviser : for his military bearing , in refusing to listen to his briefings .
McMaster laughs again , and says he doesn ’ t “ really take offence to those kind of comments , if he made them .
I don ’ t know .
“ I mean , what I did do , over time , was upgrade myself to a level of fashion that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a purveyor of fine scotches .
”

HR McMaster was national security adviser for a little more than a year. His struggles to work with Donald Trump have been widely reported. After a year, the blowhard mogul fired the military intellectual – by tweet.
Two years later, the retired general has written a book. Despite his travails, it is not a White House tell-all.
Battlegrounds: The Fight to Defend the Free World contains elements of memoir but is more concerned with discussing US foreign policy – on Russia, China, the Middle East, Iran – while lamenting how such foes profit from domestic political division drastically deepened by Trump.
“I talk about how we’re more connected to each other electronically than ever before,” McMaster says, by phone to New York from Stanford, where he’s now a fellow at the Hoover Institution. “But more distant from each other psychologically and emotionally than ever before. So I recommend that we come together on, you know, basketball courts and rugby pitches, to renew our fellowship with one another and to transcend the vitriol that we see on social media.”
From an American political figure, mention of rugby might seem rather unusual. But it’s not unexpected here.
McMaster and I have spoken before, about a sport that might be – after his family, the US military and history – the fourth great love of his life. That interview, shortly after McMaster was fired, rather nonplussed some in a Washington press corps eager to hear him dish the dirt on Trump. So might this.
Rugby has real lessons for us. We can fight like hell with each other on the pitch, and then all have a pint afterwards
“What I love about rugby,” he continues, “is it has some real lessons for us. We can fight like hell with each other on the pitch, and then all have a pint afterwards at the party. And become fast friends with the same people. I just think it’s super important that we bring that attitude to our civic lives and to our communities.”
‘Strategic narcissism’
In the US military community, a growing chorus is speaking up against Trump. McMaster has not joined it. He says he has never voted and went to the White House as a soldier, simply to serve the president. Asked about controversy over Trump’s reportedly dismissive attitude to US servicemen and women, even those killed in combat, he has said he did not hear such comments himself.
But it would be wrong to say he does not criticize Trump. Battlegrounds is a critical look at foreign policy, from a hawkish but internationalist standpoint, praising the president in some instances but generally at odds with his administration and others, particularly that of Barack Obama.
On the promotional trail, from The Late Show with Stephen Colbert to PBS Newshour, McMaster has commented on Trump’s sycophancy towards Vladimir Putin, his stoking of divisions encouraged by Putin’s Russia and even his “aiding and abetting” of new election interference from Moscow; his failure to condemn white supremacists; his suggestion he might not leave office if beaten by Joe Biden in November.
As the election approaches, Trump seeks foreign policy wins. When it comes to the “forever wars” in Iraq, Afghanistan and Syria, he has sought to bring US troops home, regardless of the cost to allies. In Afghanistan, peace talks are ongoing.
Trump’s policy, McMaster says, is “based on what we want the war to be. We want the war to be in a situation that is conducive to our withdrawal, right? So therefore, we create the enemy we want. In the Taliban, we conjure an enemy that has completely disconnected from transnational terrorist organizations or jihadist terrorists that pose a threat to us, like Al-Qaida. Well, that’s a complete fiction.”
“We create a Taliban that will not pursue the same brutal form of sharia that it imposed on the Afghan people and Afghan women in particular, but the entire population from 1996 to 2001. And so I think it is utterly unrealistic. What is astounding about Afghanistan is, if we wanted to get out, we should just have gotten out. What we’ve done is, we’ve gotten out in a way that greatly complicates the situation for the Afghan government and the Afghan people, 95% of whom do not want anything to do with the Taliban.”
To McMaster this is a perfect example of “strategic narcissism”, a concept coined by the political scientist Hans Morgenthau and examined in depth in Battlegrounds. McMaster says it’s a term he “started using a few years ago”. It seems doubtful the distinctly un-strategic narcissist in the Oval Office ever listened if he tried to explain.
When he went to the White House, McMaster was known as a military thinker, a soldier who won a famous tank battle in the Gulf war, wrote a book about Vietnam and pursued counter-insurgency tactics in the wars after 9/11.
McMaster in Iraq, with Tal Afar mayor Najim Abadullah Al-Jibouri and Lt Col Christopher Hickey. Photograph: MCT/MCT via Getty Images
“I tell a story,” he says. “My sidekick in the Middle East oftentimes was Joel Rayburn, who is in the state department now [as special envoy for Syria]. And at one stage when we couldn’t fathom the disconnect between reality on the ground in Iraq and our policy, [which seemed] a rush to failure, he said, ‘You know, the problem is that we’re in I-raq, but people in Washington are basing the policy on My-raq. And My-raq is anything you want it to be.
“It’s dark humor, because of course the stakes were pretty high, life and death in a combat situation. But I think that captures strategic narcissism perfectly.”
‘It’s important to read’
On the page, McMaster describes his family’s bafflement when, preparing to go to Washington, he packed “more books than clothes”. Once in the Trump administration he served – not always happily – beside another ardent reader, the defense secretary and retired Marine Corps general James Mattis.
McMaster’s Vietnam book, Dereliction of Duty, grew from his history thesis and described the failures of the joint chiefs of staff who advised Lyndon B Johnson in the early days of a war that spiraled into nightmare. It is regarded as a classic.
“In this case I was fortunate that I had the opportunity to research and write and think about national security decision-making and presidential decision-making in the context of the Vietnam war,” he said. “So I brought with me that perspective and determination to avoid at least the same pitfalls that I identified from a historical perspective.”
Did he avoid them?
“Yeah, I think I did. I think we did, as an actual National Security Council staff. I can only speak of those 13 months, but in those 13 months we put into place a process that I think prevented us from repeating the mistakes that I identified about the period during which Vietnam became an American war, from November 1963 to the summer of 1965.”
Historians do not read books. They use them
In the White House, McMaster faced issues including Russian election interference; North Korea and its nuclear threat; an Iran nuclear deal Trump wanted to trash; and the rise of China.
He sought, he says, to “understand problems holistically before rushing to action, to not tell the president what the president wanted to hear, but to give him multiple options and assessments of those options. And to not allow domestic political considerations to shape those options in a way that they became disconnected from the realities overseas.”
It is hard to say the US under Trump has made much progress on any of the overseas realities above, when McMaster was in office or since.
Russia is interfering in the election again, Trump conspicuous by his silence; North Korea has increased its nuclear threat, despite Trump’s courtship of Kim Jong-un; Trump did pull out of the Iran deal; and Trump’s trade war with China has morphed into a blame game over the coronavirus pandemic – in the midst of which, the president is now a statistic.
But it is easy to say no adviser could have corralled Trump over one such issue, never mind the whole horrific smorgasbord. And unlike his successor as national security adviser, McMaster has resisted the temptation to vent spleen in print.
John Bolton wrote The Room Where It Happened, a barrage of bombshells about China, Russia and the Ukraine scandal which led to Trump’s impeachment, a book which seems to pour notes and memos directly on to the page and which the White House tried to stop.
McMaster says he has “skimmed” Bolton’s book. “I’ve looked at how he dealt with particular topics, but I haven’t had the chance to read it.”
If not quite a “no comment”, it’s close. Of other books by former Trump insiders, McMaster says he’s seen just a few.
“I once asked one of my advisers at UNC Chapel Hill, a great historian of the American Revolution, a wonderful man, Don Higginbotham, if he had read a recent book. And he said, ‘HR, historians do not read books. They use them.’ So, I’ve skimmed some of them.”
McMaster meets Abdullah Abdullah, Afghan chief executive, in Kabul in April 2017. Photograph: Afghan Chief Executive Office Handout/EPA
“The book that I’m reading right now is Black Wave by Kim Ghattas, which is a treatment of Saudi Arabia, Iran and their rivalry. That’s really quite good. And then the other book I’m reading is Active Measures by Thomas Ridd, which is a history of Russian disinformation and political warfare.”
McMaster writes about his experience at the sharp end of such efforts, describing Moscow’s role in the promotion of a #FireMcMaster hashtag which Trump eventually obliged. He has described dismay at the president’s reluctance to back his intelligence community over such concerns.
‘The president was not an isolationist’
About the challenges of briefing Trump, McMaster remains diplomatic, sidestepping discussion of what Bolton called “stories, true or not, of Trump tuning out [McMaster’s] long, exhausting briefings”.
“I never would have expected the president, as busy as any president is, to get to read a whole book,” he says. “And so, you know, my first few days in the administration, we had an all hands meeting. And I said, ‘Hey, we can develop what we think are the perfect policy products for the president and ask the president to conform to what we think is the best way to convey information, or we can convey information the way that the president likes to receive it.’ So that’s what we did when I was there. And I think in those 13 months, we were effective in doing it.”
But if McMaster’s policy creed was fundamentally interventionist, and Trump’s political instinct fundamentally isolationist, surely McMaster was therefore one of the “adults in the room”, widely reported to have kept Trump somewhere near the straight and narrow until he finally broke free?
“Well, what would I think is that the president was not an isolationist. He was a skeptic, I would say, about sustained, especially military engagements abroad, if those engagements were not obviously in the interests of the American people, or they didn’t prioritize American security.”
“What I try to argue in the book is not an argument for massive troop commitments. abroad. It’s an argument for, I think I would call it sensible and sustained engagement that integrates all elements of national power, including military but as part of a broader diplomatic and economic and informational and intelligence approach to these international competitions that are already ongoing.”
In search of a metaphor, he returns to the rugby field.
“The point I try to make in the book is that these matches, you know, are already under way. And if you’re not on the pitch, you’re going to get your ass kicked.”
McMaster and the then secretary of state, Rex Tillerson, listen as Trump speaks in Manila, in November 2017. Photograph: Bullit Marquez/EPA
McMaster was kicked out of the White House by Trump. Parts of his vision are strikingly at odds with the president – he rejects climate change denialism, writes that “immigrants have been and remain one of America’s greatest competitive advantages”. Trump will never listen. Perhaps a successor will.
“I think it’s possible to prioritize American interests,” McMaster says, “but also to recognize that the best way for America to advance those interests is from within a community of like-minded countries and nations, committed to preserving the competitive advantages that our free and open societies and our free market economic systems have enjoyed.”
‘I don’t really take offence”
McMaster is determined interviews should not become tell-alls. But it turns out he is willing to discuss one infamous presidential attack.
In April 2018, the New Yorker reported that Trump, ever obsessed with appearances, had despaired of his adviser’s dress sense. The suit McMaster wore instead of his uniform as a serving lieutenant general made him look “like a beer salesman”, the president reportedly said.
McMaster laughs.
“After serving in the military for 33 years, I already assumed no one was going to come to me for fashion sense, right? But it’s so funny, I think I will tell a story.
“I’m in an administration with a lot of people who have your wealthier business backgrounds. And so I’m talking to Gary Cohn [then chief economic adviser, formerly of Goldman Sachs], it’s my first day in the West Wing, first full day anyway, and he says to me, ‘Hey, nice suit there,’ you know. And I say, ‘Thanks, but the bad news is it’ll set you back 90 bucks.’ Because I’d gotten it in Afghanistan, from a tailor there. I showed him the label: “Mobin Tailor, Kabul.”
Among the Trump books lie many other instances of president mocking adviser: for his military bearing, in refusing to listen to his briefings.
McMaster laughs again, and says he doesn’t “really take offence to those kind of comments, if he made them. I don’t know.
“I mean, what I did do, over time, was upgrade myself to a level of fashion that I would hope would be commensurate with a purveyor of fine scotches.”


theguardian--2020-10-03--Chaotic Trump-Biden debate may count for little – voters have already decided

First-time independent voter Benaja Richardson tuned into Tuesday ’ s now infamous debate between US presidential candidates Donald Trump and Joe Biden hoping to be presented with a vision of the future and unity amid the turbulence of the current climate .
Instead the 18-year-old student from Winston-Salem , North Carolina , a potential swing state , said it opened her eyes to “ truly what catastrophic times we ’ re in ” .
“ That night was supposed to be about what kind of change is going towards our future , what kind of new policies are going to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the two candidates ripping apart each other ’ s past , so it didn ’ t get us anywhere , ” said Richardson , who plans to vote for Democratic former vice-president Biden .
In the next planned two debates – if they go ahead following the president ’ s coronavirus infection and refusal to agree to new debate rules – she said she wants to see “ more professionalism from everyone … and not just a bunch of bickering back and forth ” .
The unprecedented televised debate – which saw chaotic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ largely led by Trump , including a refusal by the president to condemn white supremacists – was met with near universal condemnation from viewers , journalists and commentators .
CNN ’ s chief political correspondent Dana Bash , immediately pronounced it a “ shitshow ” live on air , while her colleague Jake Tapper described it as “ a hot mess inside a dumpster fire inside a train wreck ” .
Even Fox News anchor Chris Wallace , who moderated the debate and was criticised for not applying more control to proceedings , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that it would go off the tracks the way it did.
” Raffaello Vancouten , a restaurant and bar owner from Brooklyn , agreed with Bash ’ s verdict .
“ It was an absolute shitshow , ” said the 40-year-old , who did not say how he plans to vote .
“ The idea of it is to move votes , right ?
To get people motivated to go out there and vote .
Neither side did that .
As a business owner , as a fiscally conservative person , a little @ @ @ @ @ @ @ either side .
They didn ’ t go to cross the aisle whatsoever.
” Larry Sabato , director of the University of Virginia ( UVA ) Centre for Politics , has watched every single televised debate in US presidential history since the tradition started with John F Kennedy and Richard Nixon in 1960 .
“ This wasn ’ t just the worst … this was a disaster .
It was horrible .
It was mainly , I would say 75-80 % because of Donald Trump .
And then the larger portion of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for not doing his job.
” But he said Biden should not have called Trump a “ clown ” , adding : “ We ’ re not used to that kind of thing in presidential debates .
We expect candidates to maintain a modicum of dignity.
” The biggest impact of the debate will be on Trump , he said , taking away his “ greatest opportunity to make up ground ” .
The president is currently behind in the polls – trailing Biden by 7.2 points nationally in the RealClearPolitics average .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ American voters believe the president lost the first debate .
A CNBC/Change Research poll found 53 % of likely voters said Biden had a better debate performance , compared with 29 % who thought Trump won .
“ If he ’ d won that debate , people would ’ ve started talking about a Trump comeback , ” said Sabato , who estimates that only between 3 % and 5 % of Americans have yet to make up their minds about how they will vote .
By the next debates , he said @ @ @ @ @ @ @ their votes .
And by the final debate , he estimates that “ a third or more ” will have voted .
The disastrous event led to plans for “ additional structure ” for the remaining debates .
But Trump indicated on Thursday that he would not agree to any rule changes , tweeting : “ Why would I allow the Debate Commission to change the rules for the second and third Debates when I easily won last time ?
” Sabato called for the remaining debates to be cancelled .
“ They @ @ @ @ @ @ @ can not have a civil discussion with Donald Trump .
Surely we know that by now , ” he said .
Michigan student Tuhin Chakraborty , 20 , who supported Pete Buttigieg in the Democratic primaries , said he was impressed by Biden ’ s performance but that Trump “ behaved like a child ” .
He added : “ When I hear the term ‘ Mr President ’ I really hope not to hear that kind of behaviour and I was very disappointed that he behaved like a child , not a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Ann Arbor said the Commission on Presidential Debates “ needs to do a much better job of maintaining a different rule structure to make sure that candidates are able to express not just rhetoric but also what their policy ideas are ” .
But by the next debate , it could be too late in many cases to have an impact on voters .
In the critical swing state of Florida , Matt Florell , president of St Pete Polls , said trends have solidified in recent months , with only 1-2 % @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” enthusiasm for early voting .
“ It doesn ’ t really seem like many outside events are influencing people at this point in time to change minds.
” Jacqueline Salit , president of Independentvoting.org , a national organisation representing interests of independent voters in US , believes a lot of independents didn ’ t watch the debates because they are “ sick of the process now ” .
But she predicts that most independent voters will vote for the Democrats .
Many female independents she has spoken to who saw the debate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ boys in a sandbox have a fight ” .
She added : “ Trump revealed the level of his bullying to a new level.
” Chris Jackson , head of public polling for Ipsos in the US , said the debate “ crushed even the lowest of expectations ” .
“ The extremely divisive tone , the extremely disrespectful tone , particularly from President Trump towards Joe Biden was just shocking for most people who are used to a much more sort of decorous debate environment , particularly at the presidential debates.
” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it to have much impact on the election .
According to their polling , there was “ almost no movement ” in people ’ s voting intention for either candidate .
But , he said , “ Biden may have solidified support behind him a little bit.
” He predicts a different tone from vice-presidential candidates Mike Pence and Kamala Harris on Wednesday night in Salt Lake City , which he expects to be “ relatively pleasant ” .
But when it comes to the final two presidential debates , currently scheduled for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in Nashville , “ all bets are off ” .
He added : “ If 2020 has taught us anything , is that it can always get worse .
”

First-time independent voter Benaja Richardson tuned into Tuesday’s now infamous debate between US presidential candidates Donald Trump and Joe Biden hoping to be presented with a vision of the future and unity amid the turbulence of the current climate.
Instead the 18-year-old student from Winston-Salem, North Carolina, a potential swing state, said it opened her eyes to “truly what catastrophic times we’re in”.
“That night was supposed to be about what kind of change is going towards our future, what kind of new policies are going to be enacted and it was just about the two candidates ripping apart each other’s past, so it didn’t get us anywhere,” said Richardson, who plans to vote for Democratic former vice-president Biden.
In the next planned two debates – if they go ahead following the president’s coronavirus infection and refusal to agree to new debate rules – she said she wants to see “more professionalism from everyone … and not just a bunch of bickering back and forth”.
The unprecedented televised debate – which saw chaotic scenes of persistent interruptions and outbursts, largely led by Trump, including a refusal by the president to condemn white supremacists – was met with near universal condemnation from viewers, journalists and commentators.
CNN’s chief political correspondent Dana Bash, immediately pronounced it a “shitshow” live on air, while her colleague Jake Tapper described it as “a hot mess inside a dumpster fire inside a train wreck”.
Even Fox News anchor Chris Wallace, who moderated the debate and was criticised for not applying more control to proceedings, said afterwards: “I never dreamt that it would go off the tracks the way it did.”
Raffaello Vancouten, a restaurant and bar owner from Brooklyn, agreed with Bash’s verdict. “It was an absolute shitshow,” said the 40-year-old, who did not say how he plans to vote.
“The idea of it is to move votes, right? To get people motivated to go out there and vote. Neither side did that. As a business owner, as a fiscally conservative person, a little Democratic, there was nothing done for either side. They didn’t go to cross the aisle whatsoever.”
Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia (UVA) Centre for Politics, has watched every single televised debate in US presidential history since the tradition started with John F Kennedy and Richard Nixon in 1960.
“This wasn’t just the worst … this was a disaster. It was horrible. It was mainly, I would say 75-80% because of Donald Trump. And then the larger portion of the remaining 20-25% would be Chris Wallace for not doing his job.”
But he said Biden should not have called Trump a “clown”, adding: “We’re not used to that kind of thing in presidential debates. We expect candidates to maintain a modicum of dignity.”
The biggest impact of the debate will be on Trump, he said, taking away his “greatest opportunity to make up ground”. The president is currently behind in the polls – trailing Biden by 7.2 points nationally in the RealClearPolitics average.
Polls also show that the majority of American voters believe the president lost the first debate. A CNBC/Change Research poll found 53% of likely voters said Biden had a better debate performance, compared with 29% who thought Trump won.
“If he’d won that debate, people would’ve started talking about a Trump comeback,” said Sabato, who estimates that only between 3% and 5% of Americans have yet to make up their minds about how they will vote.
The Fox News anchor Chris Wallace struggled to maintain order in his role as moderator of Tuesday’s debate. Photograph: Olivier Douliery/AFP/Getty Images
By the next debates, he said millions more people will have already cast their votes. And by the final debate, he estimates that “a third or more” will have voted.
The disastrous event led to plans for “additional structure” for the remaining debates. But Trump indicated on Thursday that he would not agree to any rule changes, tweeting: “Why would I allow the Debate Commission to change the rules for the second and third Debates when I easily won last time?”
Sabato called for the remaining debates to be cancelled. “They ought to just cancel them … You cannot have a civil discussion with Donald Trump. Surely we know that by now,” he said.
Michigan student Tuhin Chakraborty, 20, who supported Pete Buttigieg in the Democratic primaries, said he was impressed by Biden’s performance but that Trump “behaved like a child”. He added: “When I hear the term ‘Mr President’ I really hope not to hear that kind of behaviour and I was very disappointed that he behaved like a child, not a president.”
Chakraborty, who lives in Ann Arbor said the Commission on Presidential Debates “needs to do a much better job of maintaining a different rule structure to make sure that candidates are able to express not just rhetoric but also what their policy ideas are”.
But by the next debate, it could be too late in many cases to have an impact on voters.
In the critical swing state of Florida, Matt Florell, president of St Pete Polls, said trends have solidified in recent months, with only 1-2% of voters still undecided and “unprecedented” enthusiasm for early voting. “It doesn’t really seem like many outside events are influencing people at this point in time to change minds.”
Jacqueline Salit, president of Independentvoting.org, a national organisation representing interests of independent voters in US, believes a lot of independents didn’t watch the debates because they are “sick of the process now”. But she predicts that most independent voters will vote for the Democrats.
Many female independents she has spoken to who saw the debate compared it to “watching two little boys in a sandbox have a fight”. She added: “Trump revealed the level of his bullying to a new level.”
Chris Jackson, head of public polling for Ipsos in the US, said the debate “crushed even the lowest of expectations”.
“The extremely divisive tone, the extremely disrespectful tone, particularly from President Trump towards Joe Biden was just shocking for most people who are used to a much more sort of decorous debate environment, particularly at the presidential debates.”
But functionally, he does not expect it to have much impact on the election. According to their polling, there was “almost no movement” in people’s voting intention for either candidate. But, he said, “Biden may have solidified support behind him a little bit.”
He predicts a different tone from vice-presidential candidates Mike Pence and Kamala Harris on Wednesday night in Salt Lake City, which he expects to be “relatively pleasant”.
But when it comes to the final two presidential debates, currently scheduled for 15 October in Miami and 22 October in Nashville, “all bets are off”. He added: “If 2020 has taught us anything, is that it can always get worse.”


theguardian--2020-10-03--A fine line between sympathy and blame as liberals respond to Trump infection

Following Donald Trump ’ s announcement early on Friday that he and his wife , Melania , had tested positive for Covid-19 , liberal politicians and pundits ’ reactions threaded the needle between expressing sympathy and blaming him for bringing it on himself .
The Democratic House speaker , Nancy Pelosi , said on MSNBC that this was a “ very sad ” situation , also saying Trump ’ s actions during the Covid-19 pandemic were “ a brazen invitation for something like this to happen ” .
Pelosi and some others also saw the president ’ s diagnosis as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
These efforts have long been undermined by Trump ’ s repeated refusals to treat the pandemic seriously despite the mounting US death toll , which now totals more than 208,000 .
Trump ’ s actions to downplay the threat of Covid-19 include statements minimizing the efficacy of masks – which stand in stark contrast to public health officials ’ frequent guidance that face coverings can prevent the virus from spreading .
During Tuesday night ’ s chaotic debate , Trump mocked Biden for consistently wearing a mask in public .
Bob Woodward @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Rage , revealed that the president knew about Covid-19 ’ s threat early on .
“ It goes through the air … It ’ s also more deadly than even your strenuous flus … This is deadly stuff , ” Trump told Woodward .
“ Maybe now that people who see the president of the United States , with all the protection that he has , and the first lady , still having this exposure , it might be … a learning experience , ” Pelosi said during her MSNBC appearance .
“ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to be something that is acted upon.
” The Democratic Ohio senator Sherrod Brown said : “ I wish the President , First Lady , and White House staffers a speedy recovery ” while also saying he was “ extremely troubled by the reports that the president ’ s family and staff refused to wear masks at the debate in Cleveland , and then held a fundraiser the next day – endangering all who worked at and attended these events.
” Brown ’ s Twitter statement also noted that Trump , who will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ treatment , is presently trying to undermine healthcare access for millions of Americans through litigation against the Affordable Care Act , also known as Obamacare .
“ The president has the best healthcare in the world , paid for by taxpayers .
Hardworking Ohioans don ’ t have access to the testing and resources he does because we ’ re seven months in and still have no national testing strategy , ” Brown said .
“ I hope this might cause the president to rethink this lawsuit to repeal the ACA in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ away from others who get this virus.
” The Senator minority leader , Chuck Schumer , wished Trump , Melania and affected White House staffers a “ speedy recovery ” and said he “ joined the nation in praying ” for the first family in a statement on Twitter shortly before noon .
In this same statement , Schumer criticized the White House ’ s approach to Covid-19 .
“ This episode demonstrates that the Senate needs a testing and contact tracing program for senators , staff , and all who do work @ @ @ @ @ @ @ can not allow the administration ’ s cavalier attitude to adversely affect this branch of government.
” Trump ’ s Democratic opponent in the 2020 presidential contest , Joe Biden , expressed concern in a tweet before 9am that said , “ Jill and I send our thoughts to President Trump and First Lady Melania Trump for a swift recovery .
We will continue to pray for the health and safety of the president and his family.
” Shortly after noon , Biden ’ s tweet announcing that he and Jill tested negative @ @ @ @ @ @ @ health advice Trump has undermined .
Part of this tweet said : “ Thank you to everyone for your messages of concern .
I hope this serves as a reminder : wear a mask , keep social distance , and wash your hands.
” There were also well wishes that didn ’ t appear to go into policy discussions .
Kamala Harris , Biden ’ s running mate , said on Twitter just after 9am : “ Doug and I join Joe Biden and Dr. Biden in wishing President Trump and the First @ @ @ @ @ @ @ We ’ re keeping them and the entire Trump family in our thoughts.
” The MSNBC host Rachel Maddow expressed concern for Trump , tweeting : “ God bless the president and the first lady .
If you pray , please pray for their speedy and complete recovery – and for everyone infected , everywhere .
“ This virus is horrific and merciless – no one would wish its wrath on anyone .
We must get its spread under control .
Enough , ” Maddow also said .
Some commentators focused more on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ Wowwwwwww ... ... ... .. ” the MSNBC host Joy Reid said on Twitter shortly after Trump ’ s announcement .
She also posted : “ Donald Trump said on tape in February in an interview with Bob Woodward that covid was real .
He said it was deadly .
But he continued to behave publicly , with full complicity by his team , his campaign and Republican governors like it was all a fake .
Well … covid is very real.
” Film-maker Michael Moore , on the other hand , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the news , pointing out that Trump still went to a fundraiser after the White House adviser Hope Hicks , who he was known to have had contact with at Tuesday ’ s presidential debate , showed symptoms of Covid-19 .
“ Knowing Hope Hicks had tested positive , Trump then flew to a fundraiser with fat cats in NJ .
Fleeced ‘ em for $ 5M while putting their lives at risk .
Puts a whole new spin on ‘ Kill the Rich ’ .
Nice to know the low regard Trump @ @ @ @ @ @ @ he was one of them , ” Moore said on Twitter .

Following Donald Trump’s announcement early on Friday that he and his wife, Melania, had tested positive for Covid-19, liberal politicians and pundits’ reactions threaded the needle between expressing sympathy and blaming him for bringing it on himself.
The Democratic House speaker, Nancy Pelosi, said on MSNBC that this was a “very sad” situation, also saying Trump’s actions during the Covid-19 pandemic were “a brazen invitation for something like this to happen”.
Pelosi and some others also saw the president’s diagnosis as an opportunity to combat Covid-19 more aggressively. These efforts have long been undermined by Trump’s repeated refusals to treat the pandemic seriously despite the mounting US death toll, which now totals more than 208,000.
Trump’s actions to downplay the threat of Covid-19 include statements minimizing the efficacy of masks – which stand in stark contrast to public health officials’ frequent guidance that face coverings can prevent the virus from spreading. During Tuesday night’s chaotic debate, Trump mocked Biden for consistently wearing a mask in public.
Bob Woodward’s new book on Trump, Rage, revealed that the president knew about Covid-19’s threat early on. “It goes through the air … It’s also more deadly than even your strenuous flus … This is deadly stuff,” Trump told Woodward.
“Maybe now that people who see the president of the United States, with all the protection that he has, and the first lady, still having this exposure, it might be … a learning experience,” Pelosi said during her MSNBC appearance. “But more than learning, it has to be something that is acted upon.”
The Democratic Ohio senator Sherrod Brown said: “I wish the President, First Lady, and White House staffers a speedy recovery” while also saying he was “extremely troubled by the reports that the president’s family and staff refused to wear masks at the debate in Cleveland, and then held a fundraiser the next day – endangering all who worked at and attended these events.”
Brown’s Twitter statement also noted that Trump, who will not have to pay for his Covid-19 treatment, is presently trying to undermine healthcare access for millions of Americans through litigation against the Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare.
“The president has the best healthcare in the world, paid for by taxpayers. Hardworking Ohioans don’t have access to the testing and resources he does because we’re seven months in and still have no national testing strategy,” Brown said. “I hope this might cause the president to rethink this lawsuit to repeal the ACA in the middle of a pandemic and take healthcare away from others who get this virus.”
The Senator minority leader, Chuck Schumer, wished Trump, Melania and affected White House staffers a “speedy recovery” and said he “joined the nation in praying” for the first family in a statement on Twitter shortly before noon.
In this same statement, Schumer criticized the White House’s approach to Covid-19. “This episode demonstrates that the Senate needs a testing and contact tracing program for senators, staff, and all who do work in the Capitol complex. We simply cannot allow the administration’s cavalier attitude to adversely affect this branch of government.”
Trump’s Democratic opponent in the 2020 presidential contest, Joe Biden, expressed concern in a tweet before 9am that said, “Jill and I send our thoughts to President Trump and First Lady Melania Trump for a swift recovery. We will continue to pray for the health and safety of the president and his family.”
Shortly after noon, Biden’s tweet announcing that he and Jill tested negative for Covid-19 also contained the kind of health advice Trump has undermined. Part of this tweet said: “Thank you to everyone for your messages of concern. I hope this serves as a reminder: wear a mask, keep social distance, and wash your hands.”
There were also well wishes that didn’t appear to go into policy discussions.
Kamala Harris, Biden’s running mate, said on Twitter just after 9am: “Doug and I join Joe Biden and Dr. Biden in wishing President Trump and the First Lady a full and speedy recovery. We’re keeping them and the entire Trump family in our thoughts.”
The film director Michael Moore noted that Trump had attended a fundraiser despite having been in contact with a possibly infected person. Photograph: Carlo Allegri/Reuters
The MSNBC host Rachel Maddow expressed concern for Trump, tweeting: “God bless the president and the first lady. If you pray, please pray for their speedy and complete recovery – and for everyone infected, everywhere.
“This virus is horrific and merciless – no one would wish its wrath on anyone. We must get its spread under control. Enough,” Maddow also said.
Some commentators focused more on Trump’s behavior downplaying Covid.
“Wowwwwwww...........” the MSNBC host Joy Reid said on Twitter shortly after Trump’s announcement. She also posted: “Donald Trump said on tape in February in an interview with Bob Woodward that covid was real. He said it was deadly. But he continued to behave publicly, with full complicity by his team, his campaign and Republican governors like it was all a fake. Well … covid is very real.”
Film-maker Michael Moore, on the other hand, did not hold back in responding to the news, pointing out that Trump still went to a fundraiser after the White House adviser Hope Hicks, who he was known to have had contact with at Tuesday’s presidential debate, showed symptoms of Covid-19.
“Knowing Hope Hicks had tested positive, Trump then flew to a fundraiser with fat cats in NJ. Fleeced ‘em for $5M while putting their lives at risk. Puts a whole new spin on ‘Kill the Rich’. Nice to know the low regard Trump has for the wealthy. Probably wishes he was one of them,” Moore said on Twitter.


theguardian--2020-10-03--The American Crisis review: an Atlantic SOS call from Trump's divided nation

The American Crisis is a 500-page collection of the best of the Atlantic magazine in the age of Trump .
With contributions from three dozen marquee names in US journalism , including Ta-Nehisi Coates , Anne Applebaum , Angela Nagle , Franklin Foer , Adam Serwer , George Packer and Megan Garber – plus some notable non-journalists like Lin-Manuel Miranda – it bulges with great writing and reporting .
In an era when the public square has been degraded by the mob violence of Twitter , the amoral algorithms of Facebook and the dubious scribblings of Drudge , Breitbart and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at the perfect moment to affirm the promise of the Atlantic ’ s founders in 1857 : to fight with the forces of “ freedom , national progress , and honor , whether public or private ” .
The hot-off-the-presses aggregation includes articles first published as recently as June .
Since then , the magazine ’ s string of scoops has continued unabated .
Just in the past few weeks , the editor Jeffrey Goldberg reported the president ’ s contempt for America ’ s bravest ( “ Why should I go to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with losers ” ) ; Barton Gellman seized the attention of the political world with a deep dive into Republican plans to hold on to power regardless of results at the polls ; and almost simultaneous to publication , Mike Giglio weighed in with a terrifying profile of Stewart Rhodes , the founder of the Oath Keepers , who have recruited 25,000 members , including police officers , soldiers and veterans who sound eager to unlock the safeties on their assault weapons if things don ’ t go their way on 3 November @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the great Packer , who jumped from the New Yorker to the Atlantic , is brilliant on the Republicans ’ “ nihilistic pursuit of power at all costs ” .
He focuses on the evisceration of the departments of state and justice , highlighting the naivety of the “ adults ” in the permanent government , who deeply underestimated Trump ’ s ruthlessness .
“ A simple intuition had propelled Trump throughout his life , ” Packer writes .
“ Human beings are weak .
They have their illusions , appetites , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cowed , corrupted or crushed .
Coats is equally good on The First White President , writing : “ To Trump , whiteness is neither national nor symbolic but is the very core of his power.
” Foer contributes the best profile of Paul Manafort I have ever read .
Adam Serwer ’ s piece , The Cruelty is the Point , is one of the shortest in this collection but also one of the most powerful , under a title that immediately went viral .
He pierces the reader with examples of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ almost unimaginable in America – at least since the end of routine lynchings , which Serwer also describes .
“ We can hear the spectacle of cruel laughter throughout the Trump era , ” he writes .
“ There were the border patrol agents cracking up at the crying immigrant children separated from their families , and the Trump adviser who delighted white supremacists when he mocked a child with Down ’ s syndrome who was separated from her mother … Taking joy in that suffering is more human than most would like @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s A Warning from Europe , an excerpt from her latest book , Twilight of Democracy : The Seductive Lure of Authoritarianism .
It describes the gruesome disappearance of democracy from Poland and Hungary , with fearful lessons for the US .
Amid so much gloom and doom , Miranda provides what passes for lighter reading in a collection like this .
In What Art Can Do , he reminds us all art is political – even the musicals of Rodgers and Hammerstein .
The saccharin Sound of Music also includes “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The rich melodies of South Pacific never camouflage the internalized racism of Nellie Forbush .
There isn ’ t much here to give the reader hope that American democracy will evade the inferno .
But Applebaum returns at the end of the book to celebrate the pragmatism and even the humanity of Teddy Roosevelt , who besides being a Rough Rider was also an antitrust advocate and the father of conservation in America .
Above all he was opposed to violent change – after succeeding to the presidency because of the assassination @ @ @ @ @ @ @ these words of hope : “ Theodore Roosevelt … once described optimism as ‘ a good characteristic ’ , but warned that ‘ if carried to an excess it becomes foolishness .
We have found this middle ground before , between optimism and foolishness .
We have found the ability to make deep changes without destroying those elements of our system that are useful and good .
And if we did it once , we can do it again.
” In exactly 31 days , we will learn if there is any basis @ @ @ @ @ @

The American Crisis is a 500-page collection of the best of the Atlantic magazine in the age of Trump. With contributions from three dozen marquee names in US journalism, including Ta-Nehisi Coates, Anne Applebaum, Angela Nagle, Franklin Foer, Adam Serwer, George Packer and Megan Garber – plus some notable non-journalists like Lin-Manuel Miranda – it bulges with great writing and reporting.
In an era when the public square has been degraded by the mob violence of Twitter, the amoral algorithms of Facebook and the dubious scribblings of Drudge, Breitbart and the Daily Caller, this collection arrives at the perfect moment to affirm the promise of the Atlantic’s founders in 1857: to fight with the forces of “freedom, national progress, and honor, whether public or private”.
The hot-off-the-presses aggregation includes articles first published as recently as June. Since then, the magazine’s string of scoops has continued unabated.
Just in the past few weeks, the editor Jeffrey Goldberg reported the president’s contempt for America’s bravest (“Why should I go to that cemetery? It’s filled with losers”); Barton Gellman seized the attention of the political world with a deep dive into Republican plans to hold on to power regardless of results at the polls; and almost simultaneous to publication, Mike Giglio weighed in with a terrifying profile of Stewart Rhodes, the founder of the Oath Keepers, who have recruited 25,000 members, including police officers, soldiers and veterans who sound eager to unlock the safeties on their assault weapons if things don’t go their way on 3 November.
A simple intuition had propelled Trump throughout his life. Human beings are weak George Packer
In How to Destroy a Government, the great Packer, who jumped from the New Yorker to the Atlantic, is brilliant on the Republicans’ “nihilistic pursuit of power at all costs”. He focuses on the evisceration of the departments of state and justice, highlighting the naivety of the “adults” in the permanent government, who deeply underestimated Trump’s ruthlessness.
“A simple intuition had propelled Trump throughout his life,” Packer writes. “Human beings are weak. They have their illusions, appetites, vanities, fears. They can be cowed, corrupted or crushed.
“A government is composed of human beings.”
Coats is equally good on The First White President, writing: “To Trump, whiteness is neither national nor symbolic but is the very core of his power.” Foer contributes the best profile of Paul Manafort I have ever read.
Adam Serwer’s piece, The Cruelty is the Point, is one of the shortest in this collection but also one of the most powerful, under a title that immediately went viral. He pierces the reader with examples of extreme cruelty that before Trump had become almost unimaginable in America – at least since the end of routine lynchings, which Serwer also describes.
We can hear the spectacle of cruel laughter throughout the Trump era Adam Serwer
“We can hear the spectacle of cruel laughter throughout the Trump era,” he writes. “There were the border patrol agents cracking up at the crying immigrant children separated from their families, and the Trump adviser who delighted white supremacists when he mocked a child with Down’s syndrome who was separated from her mother … Taking joy in that suffering is more human than most would like to admit.”
I also loved Applebaum’s A Warning from Europe, an excerpt from her latest book, Twilight of Democracy: The Seductive Lure of Authoritarianism. It describes the gruesome disappearance of democracy from Poland and Hungary, with fearful lessons for the US.
Donald Trump speaks in Jacksonville, Florida, in September. Photograph: Brendan Smialowski/AFP/Getty Images
Amid so much gloom and doom, Miranda provides what passes for lighter reading in a collection like this. In What Art Can Do, he reminds us all art is political – even the musicals of Rodgers and Hammerstein. The saccharin Sound of Music also includes “the looming existential threat of Nazism”. The rich melodies of South Pacific never camouflage the internalized racism of Nellie Forbush.
There isn’t much here to give the reader hope that American democracy will evade the inferno. But Applebaum returns at the end of the book to celebrate the pragmatism and even the humanity of Teddy Roosevelt, who besides being a Rough Rider was also an antitrust advocate and the father of conservation in America. Above all he was opposed to violent change – after succeeding to the presidency because of the assassination of William McKinley.
She concludes with these words of hope: “Theodore Roosevelt … once described optimism as ‘a good characteristic’, but warned that ‘if carried to an excess it becomes foolishness. We have found this middle ground before, between optimism and foolishness. We have found the ability to make deep changes without destroying those elements of our system that are useful and good. And if we did it once, we can do it again.”
In exactly 31 days, we will learn if there is any basis for that kind of optimism.
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theguardian--2020-10-03--How the Republican party threatens the US republic | Joseph Stiglitz

Whereas Nero famously fiddled while Rome burned , US President Donald Trump has famously hit the links at his money-losing golf courses while California burns – and as more than 200,000 Americans have died of Covid-19 – for which he himself has now tested positive .
Like Nero , Trump will undoubtedly be remembered as an exceptionally cruel , inhumane , and possibly mad political figure .
Until recently , most people around the world had been exposed to this American tragedy in small doses , through short clips of Trump spouting lies and nonsense on the evening news or @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , tens of millions of people endured a 90-minute spectacle , billed as a presidential “ debate ” , in which Trump demonstrated unequivocally that he is not presidential – and why so many people question his mental health .
To be sure , over the past four years , the world has watched this pathological liar set new records – logging some 20,000 falsehoods or misleading statements as of mid-July , by the Washington Post ’ s count .
What kind of debate can there be when one of the two candidates @ @ @ @ @ @ @ even there to debate ?
When asked about the recent New York Times exposé showing that he had paid just $ 750 in US federal income tax in 2016 and 2017 – and nothing for many years before that – Trump hesitated and then claimed without evidence that he had paid “ millions ” .
He was clearly offering whatever answer he thought would move things along to a more comfortable topic , and there is no good reason why anyone should believe him .
Even more disturbing was his refusal to denounce @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as the Proud Boys , whom he instructed to “ stand back and stand by ” .
Combined with his refusal to commit to a peaceful transition of power and persistent efforts to delegitimise the voting process , Trump ’ s behaviour in the run-up to the election has increasingly posed a direct threat to American democracy .
When I was a child growing up in Gary , Indiana , we learned about the virtues of the US constitution – from the independent judiciary and the separation of powers to the importance of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ forefathers appeared to have created a set of great institutions ( though they were also guilty of hypocrisy in declaring that all people are created equal so long as they are not women or people of colour ) .
When I served as chief economist at the World Bank in the late 1990s , we would travel the world lecturing others about good governance and good institutions , and the US was often held up as the exemplar of these concepts .
Not anymore .
Trump and his fellow Republicans have cast a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ us just how fragile – some might say flawed – our institutions and constitutional order are .
We are a country of laws , but it is the political norms that make the system work .
Norms are flexible , but they are also fragile .
George Washington , America ’ s first president , decided that he would serve only two terms , and that created a norm that would not be broken until the presidency of Franklin D. Roosevelt .
After that , a constitutional amendment codified the two-term limit .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ and his fellow Republicans have taken norm-shattering to a new level , disgracing themselves and undermining the institutions they are supposed to defend .
As a candidate in 2016 , Trump refused to release his tax returns .
And while in office , he has fired inspectors general for doing their jobs , repeatedly ignored conflicts of interest and profited from his office , undermined independent scientists and critical agencies , attempted outright voter suppression , and extorted foreign governments in an effort to defame his political opponents .
For good reason , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ democracy can survive .
One of the greatest worries of the founders , after all , was that a demagogue might emerge and destroy the system from within .
That is partly why they settled on a structure of indirect representative democracy , with the electoral college and a system of what were supposed to be robust checks and balances .
But after 233 years , that institutional structure is no longer robust enough .
The GOP , particularly its representatives in the Senate , has failed utterly in its responsibility to check @ @ @ @ @ @ @ openly wages war on the US constitutional order and electoral process .
There is a daunting task ahead .
In addition to addressing an out-of-control pandemic , rising inequality , and the climate crisis , there is also an urgent need to rescue American democracy .
With Republicans having long since neglected their oaths of office , democratic norms will have to be replaced with laws .
But this will not be easy .
When they are observed , norms are often preferable to laws , because they can be more easily adapted @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s litigious society , there will always be those willing to circumvent laws by honouring their letter while violating their spirit .
But when one side no longer plays by the rules , stronger guardrails must be introduced .
The good news is that we already have a roadmap .
The For the People Act of 2019 , which was adopted by the US House of Representatives early last year , set out an agenda to expand voting rights , limit partisan gerrymandering , strengthen ethics rules , and limit the influence @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The bad news is that Republicans know they are increasingly in the minority on most of the critical issues in today ’ s politics .
Americans want stronger gun control , a higher minimum wage , sensible environmental and financial regulations , affordable health insurance , expanded funding for preschool education , improved access to college , and greater limitations on money in politics .
The clearly expressed will of the majority puts the GOP in an impossible position : The party can not simultaneously pursue its unpopular agenda and also endorse honest @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is why it is now openly waging war on American democracy , doubling down on efforts to disenfranchise voters , politicise the judiciary and the federal bureaucracy , and lock in minority rule permanently through tactics such as gerrymandering .
Since the GOP has already made its deal with the devil , there is no reason to expect its members to support any effort to renew and protect American democracy .
The only option left for Americans is to deliver an overwhelming victory for Democrats at all levels in next month ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the balance .
If it falls , democracy ’ s enemies around the world will win .
• Joseph E Stiglitz is a Nobel laureate in economics , university professor at Columbia University and chief economist at the Roosevelt Institute .

Whereas Nero famously fiddled while Rome burned, US President Donald Trump has famously hit the links at his money-losing golf courses while California burns – and as more than 200,000 Americans have died of Covid-19 – for which he himself has now tested positive. Like Nero, Trump will undoubtedly be remembered as an exceptionally cruel, inhumane, and possibly mad political figure.
Until recently, most people around the world had been exposed to this American tragedy in small doses, through short clips of Trump spouting lies and nonsense on the evening news or social media. But in late September, tens of millions of people endured a 90-minute spectacle, billed as a presidential “debate”, in which Trump demonstrated unequivocally that he is not presidential – and why so many people question his mental health.
To be sure, over the past four years, the world has watched this pathological liar set new records – logging some 20,000 falsehoods or misleading statements as of mid-July, by the Washington Post’s count. What kind of debate can there be when one of the two candidates has no credibility, and is not even there to debate?
When asked about the recent New York Times exposé showing that he had paid just $750 in US federal income tax in 2016 and 2017 – and nothing for many years before that – Trump hesitated and then claimed without evidence that he had paid “millions”. He was clearly offering whatever answer he thought would move things along to a more comfortable topic, and there is no good reason why anyone should believe him.
Even more disturbing was his refusal to denounce white supremacists and violent extremist groups such as the Proud Boys, whom he instructed to “stand back and stand by”. Combined with his refusal to commit to a peaceful transition of power and persistent efforts to delegitimise the voting process, Trump’s behaviour in the run-up to the election has increasingly posed a direct threat to American democracy.
When I was a child growing up in Gary, Indiana, we learned about the virtues of the US constitution – from the independent judiciary and the separation of powers to the importance of properly functioning checks and balances. Our forefathers appeared to have created a set of great institutions (though they were also guilty of hypocrisy in declaring that all people are created equal so long as they are not women or people of colour). When I served as chief economist at the World Bank in the late 1990s, we would travel the world lecturing others about good governance and good institutions, and the US was often held up as the exemplar of these concepts.
Not anymore. Trump and his fellow Republicans have cast a shadow on the American project, reminding us just how fragile – some might say flawed – our institutions and constitutional order are. We are a country of laws, but it is the political norms that make the system work. Norms are flexible, but they are also fragile. George Washington, America’s first president, decided that he would serve only two terms, and that created a norm that would not be broken until the presidency of Franklin D. Roosevelt. After that, a constitutional amendment codified the two-term limit.
Over the past four years, Trump and his fellow Republicans have taken norm-shattering to a new level, disgracing themselves and undermining the institutions they are supposed to defend. As a candidate in 2016, Trump refused to release his tax returns. And while in office, he has fired inspectors general for doing their jobs, repeatedly ignored conflicts of interest and profited from his office, undermined independent scientists and critical agencies, attempted outright voter suppression, and extorted foreign governments in an effort to defame his political opponents.
For good reason, we Americans are now wondering if our democracy can survive. One of the greatest worries of the founders, after all, was that a demagogue might emerge and destroy the system from within. That is partly why they settled on a structure of indirect representative democracy, with the electoral college and a system of what were supposed to be robust checks and balances. But after 233 years, that institutional structure is no longer robust enough. The GOP, particularly its representatives in the Senate, has failed utterly in its responsibility to check a dangerous and erratic executive as he openly wages war on the US constitutional order and electoral process.
There is a daunting task ahead. In addition to addressing an out-of-control pandemic, rising inequality, and the climate crisis, there is also an urgent need to rescue American democracy. With Republicans having long since neglected their oaths of office, democratic norms will have to be replaced with laws. But this will not be easy. When they are observed, norms are often preferable to laws, because they can be more easily adapted to future circumstances. Especially in America’s litigious society, there will always be those willing to circumvent laws by honouring their letter while violating their spirit.
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But when one side no longer plays by the rules, stronger guardrails must be introduced. The good news is that we already have a roadmap. The For the People Act of 2019, which was adopted by the US House of Representatives early last year, set out an agenda to expand voting rights, limit partisan gerrymandering, strengthen ethics rules, and limit the influence of private donor money in politics. The bad news is that Republicans know they are increasingly in the minority on most of the critical issues in today’s politics. Americans want stronger gun control, a higher minimum wage, sensible environmental and financial regulations, affordable health insurance, expanded funding for preschool education, improved access to college, and greater limitations on money in politics.
The clearly expressed will of the majority puts the GOP in an impossible position: The party cannot simultaneously pursue its unpopular agenda and also endorse honest, transparent, democratic governance. That is why it is now openly waging war on American democracy, doubling down on efforts to disenfranchise voters, politicise the judiciary and the federal bureaucracy, and lock in minority rule permanently through tactics such as gerrymandering.
Since the GOP has already made its deal with the devil, there is no reason to expect its members to support any effort to renew and protect American democracy. The only option left for Americans is to deliver an overwhelming victory for Democrats at all levels in next month’s election. America’s democracy hangs in the balance. If it falls, democracy’s enemies around the world will win.
Joseph E Stiglitz is a Nobel laureate in economics, university professor at Columbia University and chief economist at the Roosevelt Institute.
Ⓒ Project Syndicate


theguardian--2020-10-03--Donald Trump's coronavirus infection is the ultimate 'October surprise' | Andrew Gawthorpe

This year has already been one of the strangest and most unpredictable election years in living memory .
The president faced an impeachment trial .
A deadly disease has swept the land , devastating the economy .
A supreme court seat opened up and is on course to be filled just days before the election .
Hovering over it all is a president who refuses to promise that he will accept the outcome of the election .
The traditional “ October surprise ” was going to have to be huge to get noticed amid all of this .
But , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ t fail to deliver .
Donald Trump has tested positive for the coronavirus .
To be sure , this might not strictly qualify as a “ surprise ” – given the president ’ s insistence on ignoring even the most basic of precautions against the virus , this development feels as if it was almost inevitable .
But now that it has happened , it injects a huge degree of uncertainty not just into the race between Trump and challenger Joe Biden , but also into the stability and safety of the country @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on the campaign depends on the course of the president ’ s illness , and who else becomes infected .
Both Biden and the vice-president , Mike Pence , tested negative today , but that doesn ’ t mean they ’ re yet in the clear .
Trump himself – who is reportedly experiencing only “ mild ” symptoms as of Friday night – has been hospitalised at the Walter Reed national military medical center and is receiving experimental drug treatment .
There , he might recover quickly , or he might become @ @ @ @ @ @ @ after a week , and we don ’ t yet know when Trump was infected .
If Trump does become seriously ill , the country will be in uncharted territory .
Not since Teddy Roosevelt was shot in 1912 has a candidate entered the final stretch of campaigning while suffering a debilitating ailment .
However ill he gets , Trump is likely to insist on remaining on the ballot .
Whether he develops a severe case or not , Trump ’ s diagnosis is unlikely to change the state of the race .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ hold up his own experience as evidence that the virus was never that bad after all .
But coronavirus is not some abstract issue that Americans learn about only through the media .
Nothing the president experiences or says will bring dead relatives back to life or give someone back a job they lost .
If Trump falls seriously ill , we can expect voices to be raised on the right in favor of delaying or invalidating the election .
A delay would need the approval of Congress , and is almost impossible @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that Trump ’ s illness could be used to further a narrative that the election has been illegitimately stolen from him .
Much of the rightwing media is already promoting a conspiracy theory about mail-in ballots , and as a result a large segment of the country is poised to reject the result if Trump loses .
If the president is unable to campaign for a while , he will have another excuse to urge his supporters to question the validity of the result .
The risks for the country are not just @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with grave responsibilities and awesome powers .
Trump has never embraced the serious side of the job , and much of the government has been forced into autopilot , lacking presidential guidance .
But that doesn ’ t mean that Trump can ’ t give consequential and dangerous orders if he chooses .
He commands a nuclear arsenal aimed abroad and a repressive apparatus which he seems to enjoy aiming at home .
Coronavirus patients persistently report suffering from brain fog , confusion and difficulty focusing on routine tasks .
Any president would @ @ @ @ @ @ @ up to the job this close to an election , and Trump is far too much of a narcissist to ever do so .
That means all of his power will remain in hands which may become even more unstable than usual .
Knowing 2020 , the real October surprise might be still to come , and we have no idea if the president will be in a fit state to respond to it .
Given the president ’ s narcissism , disregard for science and addiction to lying , we probably won @ @ @ @ @ @ @ too late .
The carelessness that led Trump to place the country in this situation is just another manifestation of the carelessness with which he has approached every aspect of his job as leader of the nation .
He has done incalculable damage , and we should not lose sight of that just because the latest casualty of the Trump era is Trump himself .
America , and not just the president , desperately needs to recuperate .
For that reason , we should wish the president a speedy recovery , a devastating @ @ @ @ @ @ @ retirement .
Only then can the real healing begin .
• None Andrew Gawthorpe is a historian of the United States at Leiden University

This year has already been one of the strangest and most unpredictable election years in living memory. The president faced an impeachment trial. A deadly disease has swept the land, devastating the economy. A supreme court seat opened up and is on course to be filled just days before the election. Hovering over it all is a president who refuses to promise that he will accept the outcome of the election. The traditional “October surprise” was going to have to be huge to get noticed amid all of this.
But, being 2020, this year didn’t fail to deliver. Donald Trump has tested positive for the coronavirus. To be sure, this might not strictly qualify as a “surprise” – given the president’s insistence on ignoring even the most basic of precautions against the virus, this development feels as if it was almost inevitable. But now that it has happened, it injects a huge degree of uncertainty not just into the race between Trump and challenger Joe Biden, but also into the stability and safety of the country in the coming weeks.
The effect on the campaign depends on the course of the president’s illness, and who else becomes infected. Both Biden and the vice-president, Mike Pence, tested negative today, but that doesn’t mean they’re yet in the clear. Trump himself – who is reportedly experiencing only “mild” symptoms as of Friday night – has been hospitalised at the Walter Reed national military medical center and is receiving experimental drug treatment. There, he might recover quickly, or he might become severely ill. Dangerous symptoms typically develop after a week, and we don’t yet know when Trump was infected.
If Trump does become seriously ill, the country will be in uncharted territory. Not since Teddy Roosevelt was shot in 1912 has a candidate entered the final stretch of campaigning while suffering a debilitating ailment. However ill he gets, Trump is likely to insist on remaining on the ballot.
Whether he develops a severe case or not, Trump’s diagnosis is unlikely to change the state of the race. Trump might emerge unscathed and attempt to hold up his own experience as evidence that the virus was never that bad after all. But coronavirus is not some abstract issue that Americans learn about only through the media. Nothing the president experiences or says will bring dead relatives back to life or give someone back a job they lost.
If Trump falls seriously ill, we can expect voices to be raised on the right in favor of delaying or invalidating the election. A delay would need the approval of Congress, and is almost impossible to imagine. Easier to imagine is that Trump’s illness could be used to further a narrative that the election has been illegitimately stolen from him. Much of the rightwing media is already promoting a conspiracy theory about mail-in ballots, and as a result a large segment of the country is poised to reject the result if Trump loses. If the president is unable to campaign for a while, he will have another excuse to urge his supporters to question the validity of the result.
The risks for the country are not just electoral. The presidency is an office with grave responsibilities and awesome powers. Trump has never embraced the serious side of the job, and much of the government has been forced into autopilot, lacking presidential guidance. But that doesn’t mean that Trump can’t give consequential and dangerous orders if he chooses. He commands a nuclear arsenal aimed abroad and a repressive apparatus which he seems to enjoy aiming at home.
Coronavirus patients persistently report suffering from brain fog, confusion and difficulty focusing on routine tasks. Any president would hesitate to admit they weren’t up to the job this close to an election, and Trump is far too much of a narcissist to ever do so. That means all of his power will remain in hands which may become even more unstable than usual. Knowing 2020, the real October surprise might be still to come, and we have no idea if the president will be in a fit state to respond to it. Given the president’s narcissism, disregard for science and addiction to lying, we probably won’t know until it’s too late.
The carelessness that led Trump to place the country in this situation is just another manifestation of the carelessness with which he has approached every aspect of his job as leader of the nation. He has done incalculable damage, and we should not lose sight of that just because the latest casualty of the Trump era is Trump himself. America, and not just the president, desperately needs to recuperate. For that reason, we should wish the president a speedy recovery, a devastating election defeat and a long and ignominious retirement. Only then can the real healing begin.