theguardian--2020-10-10--Michigan terror plot: why rightwing extremists are thriving on Facebook

In a year of escalating political violence in the United States , Facebook has served as a key organizing tool for violent extremists .
An alleged plot to kidnap the Michigan governor , Gretchen Whitmer , was planned in part on Facebook , with one leader of the scheme broadcasting a video of his frustrations with Whitmer to a private Facebook group , and participants later sharing footage of their paramilitary exercises and bomb-making training , according to an FBI affidavit .
A related Michigan militia group facing terrorism charges also used Facebook to recruit new members , according to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , there was the militia group in Kenosha , Wisconsin , that used a Facebook event to encourage armed citizens to take to the streets , and the anti-government “ boogaloo ” cop-killer in California this May allegedly met his accomplice on Facebook .
The deadly neo-Nazi rally in Charlottesville , Virginia , in 2017 , was originally organized as a Facebook event .
Facebook has defended itself as working hard to keep users safe and to adapt to emerging threats on its platform , as well as coordinating closely with law enforcement @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that Mark Zuckerberg ’ s goal of using Facebook to “ bring the world closer together ” and to “ give people the power to build community ” has also built powerful tools for radicalization and coordinated violence .
Facebook suggested this week that its conduct in the Michigan case had been “ proactive ” and exemplary , and that it had played an important role in flagging extremist content to law enforcement authorities .
A spokesperson said the company had “ proactively reached out and cooperated with the FBI ” to provide @ @ @ @ @ @ @ six months ago .
“ We remove content , disable accounts and immediately report to law enforcement when there is a credible threat of imminent harm to people or public safety , ” a Facebook spokesperson said .
The FBI said in an affidavit that its Michigan investigation began when it “ became aware through social media that a group of individuals were discussing the violent overthrow of certain government and law-enforcement components ” in early 2020 .
Matt Perault , a former Facebook public policy director who leads a center for technology @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Michigan case should be seen as an example of Facebook being part of the solution to dealing with extremist radicalization in the US .
“ The data is pretty clear in this case that the ability of an informant to join a Facebook group to identify the conduct , and Facebook ’ s work with law enforcement , seems like it was pretty helpful , ” he said , apparently helping “ to head off a horrific event before it occurred ” .
But federal authorities ’ descriptions of a rightwing plot @ @ @ @ @ @ @ her on “ trial ” as a tyrant and instigate a civil war , have also renewed questions about whether Facebook ’ s current strategy for policing extremism on its platform is adequate , or whether the company needs to fundamentally rethink its approach , acknowledging that what ’ s good for Facebook may be bad for democracy .
While dangerous groups can and do organize across many different platforms , Facebook is “ uniquely dangerous ” because it is designed for “ algorithmic recruitment ” , Evan Greer , the deputy director @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Future , wrote on Twitter on Thursday .
Facebook has often framed the discussions of how its platform has been used by violent extremists as a question of “ free speech ” , but many critics say that misses the real issue about the ways in which the company uses its algorithms to recommend extremist content and extremist groups to its users .
“ It ’ s one thing to provide a forum where people can say what they want , even if it ’ s controversial , ” Greer told the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ totally different thing to actively help violent bigots recruit other violent bigots into their group using data harvesting and algorithmic recommendations.
” When researchers at the Network Contagion Research Institute began mapping the spread of anti-government “ boogaloo ” rhetoric on the platform in early 2020 , the co-founder Joel Finkelstein said , Facebook began offering up advertisements for purchases relevant to their interest in a coming civil war .
“ It started sending us ads for the boogaloo .
Buy a boogaloo bag .
Get a boogaloo AK-47 inscription on your gun @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was shocking.
” “ We realized the algorithms of Facebook have never met an apocalyptic , militant cult set on killing cops that they didn ’ t like , and couldn ’ t merchandise.
” The Michigan kidnapping plot , and related charges against members of an anti-government militia , are a new case study in the role Facebook has played in emerging extremist threats .
Authorities said they had arrested 13 men in connection with violent plots against elected officials and law enforcement officers .
Early details suggest at least some of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ boogaloo ” ideology , a nascent rightwing movement obsessed with civil war and insurrection , which spread rapidly on Facebook in late 2019 and early 2020 .
Officials described seven men facing terrorism charges as being part of an anti-government militia group , the Wolverine Watchmen , and said the “ commander ” of the group was known online as “ Boogaloo Bunyan.
” Facebook has updated its policies related to violent extremist groups multiple times this year , including taking down a network of boogaloo groups as a dangerous organization in June @ @ @ @ @ @ @ late August , as part of a crackdown on groups that did not meet the company ’ s criteria for being dangerous enough to ban , but that did “ have demonstrated significant risks to public safety ” .
As part of a “ strategic network disruption ” of boogaloo groups on 30 June , Facebook removed a group for the Wolverine Watchmen , the company said .
As companies like Facebook are pressured by activists to take down material from extremist groups , they may also be juggling requests from law enforcement @ @ @ @ @ @ @ could use to prosecute people ” , Perault noted .
Social media activity “ makes information visible that might not otherwise be visible ” , and can be crucial to building criminal cases .
“ Tech companies are not going to be able to solve the issue of people doing terrible things , ” Perault said .
“ People will do terrible things using any communication technology they have access to , including more traditional technologies like phones.
” But some analysts said Facebook ’ s action in addressing both the “ boogaloo @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was starkly overdue .
Armed militia groups in the United States have an extensive , well-documented history of deadly violence going back to the 1990s .
“ From 2008 to 2020 , Facebook was sort of the chosen social media platform of the militia movement , ” said Mark Pitcavage , a senior research fellow at the Anti-Defamation League ’ s Center on Extremism .
“ That ’ s a solid 12 years that the militia movement thrived on Facebook.
” Facebook ’ s belated action to restrict the militia groups in late @ @ @ @ @ @ @ movement : they “ nuked ” it , with many groups and pages taken down , Pitcavage said .
“ It really made a big crater.
” “ It would have been better if they had done it in 2008 , ” Pitcavage said , but he appreciated that it was better that the company to take action now than “ in 2022 or 2024 ” .
At times , Facebook has chosen not to significantly restrict or ban extremist groups on its platform until after a member of the group has killed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ warnings about the group for months or years before an attack .
This was true of boogaloo groups on Facebook .
A February 2020 report by the Network Contagion Research Institute warned about the growth of boogaloo rhetoric on Facebook , specifically that it included violent rhetoric about killing law enforcement that might translate into action .
After the report was made public , Facebook told NBC News it was monitoring the groups for threats of violence , but did not take any immediate action to ban boogaloo groups , even through violent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ themes of boogaloo discussions .
The company finally announced a ban on a network of boogaloo groups on 30 June , four months after a clear public warning that a cop-killer ideology was spreading on Facebook , and nearly a month after two officers in California had already been shot to death : the federal security officer David Patrick Underwood , on 29 May in Oakland , and the California sheriff ’ s deputy Damon Gutzwiller , in a subsequent ambush attack .
Early details from Michigan suggest that one of the groups @ @ @ @ @ @ @ active on Facebook for eight months before the company finally designated them as part of a dangerous network .
Michigan state police described the Wolverine Watchmen in an affidavit as a militia group that “ engaged in firearms training and tactical drills to prepare for the ‘ boogaloo ’ , a term referencing a violent uprising against the government or impending politically-motivated civil war , ” and said that they had “ recruited members using a social media platform , Facebook , since November 2019 ” .
Facebook took down the Watchmen group @ @ @ @ @ @ @ said that if the Wolverine Watchmen group had been identified as a credible threat earlier , it would have been removed at an earlier time .
It was the “ acts of real-world violence ” by movement adherents in the spring of 2020 that led Facebook to designate a boogaloo network as a dangerous organization and ban it from the platform , a company spokesperson said in June , but it had been monitoring the movement closely since 2019 .
Facebook had been identified elements of the boogaloo movement “ as far back @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and had been monitoring monitoring debates inside the movement over “ whether to instigate violent conflict or be prepared to react when it occurs ” for months before it finally announced a ban .
Some activists are now pressing Facebook not only to move faster in banning dangerous groups from its platform , but to fundamentally rethink the way it shares and promotes content , and suggests connections between different users .
Finkelstein , the Network Contagion Institute co-founder , said that Facebook did not currently have enough incentive to regulate itself @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
“ It ’ s not in their financial interest ” to change , he said .
“ They ’ re creating social hazards in ways that we can ’ t police .
”

In a year of escalating political violence in the United States, Facebook has served as a key organizing tool for violent extremists.
An alleged plot to kidnap the Michigan governor, Gretchen Whitmer, was planned in part on Facebook, with one leader of the scheme broadcasting a video of his frustrations with Whitmer to a private Facebook group, and participants later sharing footage of their paramilitary exercises and bomb-making training, according to an FBI affidavit.
A related Michigan militia group facing terrorism charges also used Facebook to recruit new members, according to the Michigan state police.
Before Michigan, there was the militia group in Kenosha, Wisconsin, that used a Facebook event to encourage armed citizens to take to the streets, and the anti-government “boogaloo” cop-killer in California this May allegedly met his accomplice on Facebook. The deadly neo-Nazi rally in Charlottesville, Virginia, in 2017, was originally organized as a Facebook event.
Facebook has defended itself as working hard to keep users safe and to adapt to emerging threats on its platform, as well as coordinating closely with law enforcement. But evidence has mounted for years that Mark Zuckerberg’s goal of using Facebook to “bring the world closer together” and to “give people the power to build community” has also built powerful tools for radicalization and coordinated violence.
An armed protester at the Michigan Capitol Building in Lansing, 30 April 2020. Protesters demanded that the state not extend Governor Gretchen Whitmer’s stay-at-home order. Photograph: Bloomberg/Getty Images
Facebook suggested this week that its conduct in the Michigan case had been “proactive” and exemplary, and that it had played an important role in flagging extremist content to law enforcement authorities. A spokesperson said the company had “proactively reached out and cooperated with the FBI” to provide information for the Michigan investigation more than six months ago.
“We remove content, disable accounts and immediately report to law enforcement when there is a credible threat of imminent harm to people or public safety,” a Facebook spokesperson said.
The FBI said in an affidavit that its Michigan investigation began when it “became aware through social media that a group of individuals were discussing the violent overthrow of certain government and law-enforcement components” in early 2020.
Matt Perault, a former Facebook public policy director who leads a center for technology policy at Duke University, argued that the Michigan case should be seen as an example of Facebook being part of the solution to dealing with extremist radicalization in the US.
“The data is pretty clear in this case that the ability of an informant to join a Facebook group to identify the conduct, and Facebook’s work with law enforcement, seems like it was pretty helpful,” he said, apparently helping “to head off a horrific event before it occurred”.
But federal authorities’ descriptions of a rightwing plot to kidnap a Democratic governor, put her on “trial” as a tyrant and instigate a civil war, have also renewed questions about whether Facebook’s current strategy for policing extremism on its platform is adequate, or whether the company needs to fundamentally rethink its approach, acknowledging that what’s good for Facebook may be bad for democracy.
While dangerous groups can and do organize across many different platforms, Facebook is “uniquely dangerous” because it is designed for “algorithmic recruitment”, Evan Greer, the deputy director of digital human rights group Fight for the Future, wrote on Twitter on Thursday.
A memorial for Heather Heyer. The deadly neo-Nazi rally was originally organized on Facebook as a Facebook event. Photograph: Evelyn Hockstein/The Guardian
Facebook has often framed the discussions of how its platform has been used by violent extremists as a question of “free speech”, but many critics say that misses the real issue about the ways in which the company uses its algorithms to recommend extremist content and extremist groups to its users.
“It’s one thing to provide a forum where people can say what they want, even if it’s controversial,” Greer told the Guardian. “It’s a totally different thing to actively help violent bigots recruit other violent bigots into their group using data harvesting and algorithmic recommendations.”
When researchers at the Network Contagion Research Institute began mapping the spread of anti-government “boogaloo” rhetoric on the platform in early 2020, the co-founder Joel Finkelstein said, Facebook began offering up advertisements for purchases relevant to their interest in a coming civil war.
“It started sending us ads for the boogaloo. Buy a boogaloo bag. Get a boogaloo AK-47 inscription on your gun,” Finkelstein said. “That was shocking.”
“We realized the algorithms of Facebook have never met an apocalyptic, militant cult set on killing cops that they didn’t like, and couldn’t merchandise.”
‘The chosen platform of the militia movement’
The Michigan kidnapping plot, and related charges against members of an anti-government militia, are a new case study in the role Facebook has played in emerging extremist threats. Authorities said they had arrested 13 men in connection with violent plots against elected officials and law enforcement officers.
Early details suggest at least some of the alleged Michigan plotters identified with “boogaloo” ideology, a nascent rightwing movement obsessed with civil war and insurrection, which spread rapidly on Facebook in late 2019 and early 2020. Officials described seven men facing terrorism charges as being part of an anti-government militia group, the Wolverine Watchmen, and said the “commander” of the group was known online as “Boogaloo Bunyan.”
The algorithms of Facebook have never met an apocalyptic, militant cult set on killing cops that they didn’t like, and couldn’t merchandise Joel Finkelstein
Facebook has updated its policies related to violent extremist groups multiple times this year, including taking down a network of boogaloo groups as a dangerous organization in June, and then restricting militia groups in late August, as part of a crackdown on groups that did not meet the company’s criteria for being dangerous enough to ban, but that did “have demonstrated significant risks to public safety”.
As part of a “strategic network disruption” of boogaloo groups on 30 June, Facebook removed a group for the Wolverine Watchmen, the company said.
As companies like Facebook are pressured by activists to take down material from extremist groups, they may also be juggling requests from law enforcement “to leave up material that prosecutors could use to prosecute people”, Perault noted. Social media activity “makes information visible that might not otherwise be visible”, and can be crucial to building criminal cases.
“Tech companies are not going to be able to solve the issue of people doing terrible things,” Perault said. “People will do terrible things using any communication technology they have access to, including more traditional technologies like phones.”
But some analysts said Facebook’s action in addressing both the “boogaloo” groups and militia organizing this summer was starkly overdue.
Armed militia groups in the United States have an extensive, well-documented history of deadly violence going back to the 1990s.
An alleged plot to kidnap the Michigan governor, Gretchen Whitmer, was planned in part on Facebook. Photograph: AP
“From 2008 to 2020, Facebook was sort of the chosen social media platform of the militia movement,” said Mark Pitcavage, a senior research fellow at the Anti-Defamation League’s Center on Extremism. “That’s a solid 12 years that the militia movement thrived on Facebook.”
Facebook’s belated action to restrict the militia groups in late August had an effect on the broader movement: they “nuked” it, with many groups and pages taken down, Pitcavage said. “It really made a big crater.”
“It would have been better if they had done it in 2008,” Pitcavage said, but he appreciated that it was better that the company to take action now than “in 2022 or 2024”.
At times, Facebook has chosen not to significantly restrict or ban extremist groups on its platform until after a member of the group has killed someone, even when experts have sounded warnings about the group for months or years before an attack.
This was true of boogaloo groups on Facebook. A February 2020 report by the Network Contagion Research Institute warned about the growth of boogaloo rhetoric on Facebook, specifically that it included violent rhetoric about killing law enforcement that might translate into action. After the report was made public, Facebook told NBC News it was monitoring the groups for threats of violence, but did not take any immediate action to ban boogaloo groups, even through violent insurrection and killing law enforcement were central themes of boogaloo discussions.
The company finally announced a ban on a network of boogaloo groups on 30 June, four months after a clear public warning that a cop-killer ideology was spreading on Facebook, and nearly a month after two officers in California had already been shot to death: the federal security officer David Patrick Underwood, on 29 May in Oakland, and the California sheriff’s deputy Damon Gutzwiller, in a subsequent ambush attack.
Early details from Michigan suggest that one of the groups linked to the plot may have been active on Facebook for eight months before the company finally designated them as part of a dangerous network.
A Texas Guerrillas member who calls himself ‘Apex’, third from right, and others carry weapons at a Black Lives Matter rally in Austin, Texas. Photograph: Nuri Vallbona/Reuters
Michigan state police described the Wolverine Watchmen in an affidavit as a militia group that “engaged in firearms training and tactical drills to prepare for the ‘boogaloo’, a term referencing a violent uprising against the government or impending politically-motivated civil war,” and said that they had “recruited members using a social media platform, Facebook, since November 2019”.
Facebook took down the Watchmen group on 30 June 2020. A spokesperson said that if the Wolverine Watchmen group had been identified as a credible threat earlier, it would have been removed at an earlier time.
It was the “acts of real-world violence” by movement adherents in the spring of 2020 that led Facebook to designate a boogaloo network as a dangerous organization and ban it from the platform, a company spokesperson said in June, but it had been monitoring the movement closely since 2019. Facebook had been identified elements of the boogaloo movement “as far back as 2012”, a spokesperson said, and had been monitoring monitoring debates inside the movement over “whether to instigate violent conflict or be prepared to react when it occurs” for months before it finally announced a ban.
Some activists are now pressing Facebook not only to move faster in banning dangerous groups from its platform, but to fundamentally rethink the way it shares and promotes content, and suggests connections between different users.
Finkelstein, the Network Contagion Institute co-founder, said that Facebook did not currently have enough incentive to regulate itself, since extremist content was very engaging. “It’s not in their financial interest” to change, he said. “They’re creating social hazards in ways that we can’t police.”
Kari Paul contributed reporting


theguardian--2020-10-11--Biden retains double-digit national lead over Trump as election looms – live

An ABC News/Washington Post national poll released on Sunday shows that Joe Biden maintains a large lead over Donald Trump with just over three weeks until the presidential election .
Biden holds a lead of 54 % to 42 % among likely voters nationwide , which is a similar margin enjoyed by the Democratic challenger in recent months .
Among registered voters , the lead is 53 % to 41 % .
It should be noted that the poll is a reflection of the popular vote , rather than the state-by-state vote .
The latter will determine the winner of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ popular vote in 2016 but lost in crucial swing states , ensuring victory for Trump .
Most state-by-state polls show Biden leading but the margins are smaller than in the national polls .
There are some positives in Sunday ’ s poll for the president .
A majority of voters ( 54 % ) approve of Trump ’ s handling of the economy , which is seen as the most important issue among voters ( 29 % ) .
Biden is more trusted on the Covid-19 pandemic , which has killed more than @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lead over his ability to handle the virus .
Biden holds a large lead among women ( 59 % to 36 % ) .
Biden and Trump are equally favoured by men at 48 % each .
Trump was favoured by the latter group by 11 percentage points in 2016 .
Most voters also appear to blame the president for his recent Covid-19 diagnosis .
Two-thirds said Trump had not taken the proper precautions against the virus .
You can read more on why Democrats are cautious about Biden ’ s lead in @ @ @ @

11 Oct 2020 22.02 BST Summary We’re closing the blog for today, but we’ll be back tomorrow with more live updates. Before we go, here’s a quick summary of everything that’s happened today: Donald Trump has started to say that he is “immune” to Covid-19 after contracting the virus, contradicting evidence that people can get the virus more than once and ignoring the lack of research about how long antibodies are effective. Twitter flagged Trump’s tweet that claims he’s immune to the virus, saying that it contains misleading information.
Dr Anthony Fauci spoke out against a Trump campaign ad that took praise he gave for the coronavirus task force out of context. In the rare pushback to Trump, Fauci said that the GOP did not get his permission to use the clip and reiterated that he has never publicly endorsed any political candidates “in my nearly five decades of public service”.
The opening statement Amy Coney Barrett, the supreme court nominee whose nomination process will start in the Senate tomorrow, has been leaked and reveals Barrett will say that she would apply the “law as written” and speak about the influence of the late supreme court justice Antonin Scalia on her judicial philosophy.
A new national poll from ABC News and the Washington Post shows Joe Biden maintaining a large lead over Donald Trump, with Biden holding a 12% lead over the incumbent just three weeks until the presidential election.
11 Oct 2020 21.41 BST Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation’s top infectious disease expert, has spoken out against Donald Trump taking a clip out of context for a campaign ad, what is now one of Fauci’s most direct pushback against Trump since the start of the pandemic. For months during the course of the pandemic, Donald Trump has often been at odds with Fauci, delivering contradictory public health messages and publicly expressing frustration with the doctor’s more sober take on the pandemic. In the spring, as the virus ravaged the Northeast of the country, Fauci was a regular at the White House’s coronavirus press briefings. But in June, Fauci said he was not invited to the press briefings, with Trump telling Fox News that “Dr. Fauci’s a nice man, but he made a lot of mistakes”. At the time, cases were just starting to rise in many parts of the country, the effects of states quickly reopening their economies for the summer, allowing the virus to spread. Fauci at the time cautioned against reopening without regulations in place, contradicting Trump’s messaging that states should rush to reopen. Fauci has done his best to be a neutral, authoritative public health figure over the course of the pandemic, opting to do dozens of virtual interviews to offer his recommendations to Americans. Trump has since replaced Fauci and Dr Deborah Birx, another respected epidemiologist who was once a regular at the White House press briefing, with Dr Scott Atlas, who has come under scrutiny by public health experts for questioning the effectiveness of masks and parroting the Trump administration’s optimistic timeline for a Covid-19 vaccine. Dr Anthony Fauci Photograph: Xinhua/REX/Shutterstock
Updated at 21.42 BST
11 Oct 2020 20.59 BST Donald Trump’s campaign responded to a new statement from Dr Anthony Fauci, the nation’s top infectious disease expert, who said his words were taken out of context for a new Trump ad. “These are Dr. Facui’s own words. The video is from a nationally broadcast television interview in which Dr. Fauci was praising the work of the Trump administration,” said Trump’s communication director Tim Murtaugh. “The words are accurate and directly from Dr. Fauci’s mouth.” Trump campaign's @TimMurtaugh responds:
“These are Dr. Fauci’s own words. The video is from a nationally broadcast television interview in which Dr. Fauci was praising the work of the Trump Administration. The words spoken are accurate, and directly from Dr. Fauci’s mouth...” https://t.co/RUDsk2K1tl — Will Steakin (@wsteaks) October 11, 2020 The statement of course does not address that Fauci, when he said “I can’t imagine that… anyone could be doing more” was not referring to Trump but the broader coronavirus task force, including himself.
11 Oct 2020 20.39 BST Dr Anthony Fauci, the nation’s top infectious disease expert, responded to his misleading appearance in a new ad for Donald Trump’s campaign, saying that he was taken out of context by the spot. In the ad, released yesterday, Fauci can be heard saying “I can’t imagine that… anyone could be doing more” in an interview as the ad boasts Trump’s response to Covid-19. The clip came from an interview Fauci had with Fox News and was taken from a snippet when he was describing the work that he and other members of the coronavirus task force undertook to respond to the virus. Fauci was not directing his statement at Trump. “In my nearly five decades of public service, I have never publicly endorsed any political candidate,” Fauci said in a statement to CNN. “The comments attributed to me without my permission in the GOP campaign ad were taken out of context from a broad statement I made months ago about the efforts of federal public health officials.” Trump campaign ads are now featuring misleading quotes from Fauci making it seem as though he endorses the White House’s coronavirus response pic.twitter.com/Vgd44nsren — Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) October 11, 2020
Updated at 21.43 BST
11 Oct 2020 20.11 BST The chief executive of Regeneron, the pharmaceutical company that produced the antibody cocktail that Donald Trump received to treat his case of Covid-19, said that Trump’s experience with the drug is “a case of one” and said the company is working through clinical trials to ensure its safety and effectiveness. “The president is a case of one,” Leonard Schleifer, chief executive of Regeneron, said in an interview with CBS today. “It is evidence of what’s happening, but it’s kind of the weakest evidence you can get.” Does @Regeneron’s antibody cocktail “cure" #Covid19 as @realDonaldTrump claims? $REGN's Leonard Schleifer tells @margbrennan Trump was an ideal candidate for treatment: "He was elderly, he had some risk factors, and didn't have his own immune system in gear when he was sick" pic.twitter.com/W8N89MC4lY — Face The Nation (@FaceTheNation) October 11, 2020 The company is likely trying to neutralize itself after falling into political discourse about the virus. Earlier this week, Trump in a video said that Regeneron’s antibody cocktail was the key to his recovery from the virus, calling it a “cure” for Covid-19 though the drug is still in clinical trials. Public health experts criticized the president for touting a drug that has not been approved by the Food and Drug Administration, something the president has done before with other unconfirmed treatments of the virus such as hydroxychloroquine and blood plasma.
Updated at 21.46 BST
11 Oct 2020 19.52 BST Jaime Harrison, who is running against Republican Lindsey Graham for his Senate seat representing South Carolina, has raised $57 million over the last three months – the largest haul in a single quarter for a Senate candidate in US history. The biggest quarterly haul for a Senate candidate was $38 million before Harrison set the new record, which was raised by former US representative Beto O’Rourke in his election against Senator Ted Cruz, according to the New York Times. Graham has not yet announced his fundraising figure for the last quarter. Harrison is the former chair of the South Carolina’s Democratic Party and associate chairman of the national Democratic Party. Jaime Harrison Photograph: Meg Kinnard/AP
Updated at 21.27 BST
11 Oct 2020 19.24 BST Twitter flags Trump's tweet about Covid-19 immunity It looks like Twitter flagged Donald Trump’s tweet about being immune to Covid-19. The platform has hid the Tweet completely under a message that says it violates Twitter’s rules “about spreading misleading and potentially harmful information related to Covid-19”. The note also says that Twitter “has determined that it may be in the public’s interest for the Tweet to remain accessible”. Twitter flags Trump for saying that's he's immune to Covid. pic.twitter.com/7xztR83a37 — Josh Wingrove (@josh_wingrove) October 11, 2020 This appears to be the fifth Tweet of Trump’s that the platform has flagged. The first was a Tweet from May when he said “when the looting starts, the shooting starts”. One Tweet in June about using “serious force” against protesters and another in August that called mail boxes a “voter security disaster” were both flagged. The fourth flagged tweet was from September when Trump encouraged voters in North Carolina to vote twice, which is illegal. On Friday, Twitter announced further limits on users who are trying to spread misinformation or encourage violence or election interference, including candidates for office. The platform said it would flag false claims of winning an election from candidates until state election officials or authoritative national news outlets report it.
Updated at 21.46 BST
11 Oct 2020 19.01 BST After talks over a new coronavirus stimulus package, which have been ongoing since July, the White House published an open letter to Congress that targets Democrats for taking “an all-or-nothing approach” to talks. “The House has passed two separate partisan bills instead of compromising with us on bipartisan legislation like we have done in the past,” the letter reads. An update from the White House on stimulus negotiations: pic.twitter.com/JnYzxwDRgr — The White House (@WhiteHouse) October 11, 2020 Of course the letter does not mention that Senate Republicans have played a major role in holding up negotiations. House Democrats passed two different stimulus packages, the hefty $3 trillion HEROES Act in May and a $2.2 trillion at the beginning of the month. Republicans have put forth the $1 trillion HEALS Act in July. While both sides seem reluctant to budget, the White House has indicated that they are more willing to get closer to what Democrats want than Senate Republicans, offering House speaker Nancy Pelosi a $1.8 trillion plan on Friday. Pelosi’s team indicated there was disagreement on the plan’s Covid-19 public health response and overall funding level, meaning a bill is still not close in sight. Senate Republicans meanwhile have acknowledged that they are focused more on the nomination of judge Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court, with Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell saying that a bill will likely not be passed until after the election.
11 Oct 2020 18.23 BST This is Lauren Aratani taking over for Tom Lutz. Senator Kamala Harris just announced that she will be participating in the confirmation hearing for judge Amy Coney Barrett remotely. The testimony in front of the Senate’s judiciary committee is set to start tomorrow. New — @KamalaHarris will participate in the Amy Coney Barrett confirmation hearing remotely from her office. pic.twitter.com/pGu7MXisa4 — Jake Sherman (@JakeSherman) October 11, 2020 Her Senate office said in a statement that the Republicans on the committee did not agree to agree to a request from Democrats, including Harris to implement a testing procedure. Two Republican members of the committee, senators Thom Tillis of North Carolina and Mike Lee of Utah, both tested positive for the virus after attending the nominating ceremony for Barrett at the White House Sept. 25, which is considered a super-spreader event. Republicans have been eager to push Barrett’s nomination through the Senate as quickly as possible before the election. On Twitter, Harris said that by moving forward with the hearing tomorrow, Senate Republicans were “endangering the lives of not just members and our staff, but the hardworking people who keep the Senate complex running”. By moving forward with Supreme Court confirmation hearings tomorrow—less than 2 weeks after members tested positive—Chairman Graham and Senate Republicans are endangering the lives of not just members and our staff, but the hardworking people who keep the Senate complex running. — Kamala Harris (@SenKamalaHarris) October 11, 2020
Updated at 21.47 BST
11 Oct 2020 17.52 BST Democratic Senate minority leader Chuck Schumer has said Donald Trump’s supreme court nominee Amy Coney Barrett should, if confirmed, step aside from contentious cases. Reuters reports: Democratic opposition to Barrett on policy issues has focused on her possible role in deciding a case before the Supreme Court in which Trump and Republican-led states are seeking to invalidate the Affordable Care Act (ACA) healthcare law, often called Obamacare. “She doesn’t come unbiased and that’s why she should recuse herself,” Schumer said on Sunday. A key Obamacare provision that would be thrown out if the court strikes down the law bars insurance companies from denying coverage to people with pre-existing conditions. Democrats have criticized Trump for seeking to end Obamacare protections amid a pandemic that has killed more than 210,000 Americans. Schumer also said Barrett should recuse herself from any cases involving the presidential election because of statements made by Trump in which the president has said the court is likely to have election cases. Trump, who is running for reelection against Democrat Joe Biden, has indicated he would expect the court to rule in his favor if Barrett is confirmed.


theguardian--2020-10-11--The Texas electorate is changing – but could Biden really flip the state?

Texas ’ s 24th congressional district is in many ways a microcosm for this entire election .
An expansive sprawl of suburbia that connects the cities of Dallas and Fort Worth , it has for the past 15 years been dominated by conservative politics .
The incumbent Republican congressman Kenny Marchant has held the district since 2004 but his retirement , announced to little fanfare last year , has sparked a political turf war that crystallizes Texas ’ s rapid diversification and the bitter politics that underpin it .
When Marchant , now 69 , first won here he carried @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the vote , and those margins continued for over a decade .
But in 2018 , two years into the Trump era , he clung to his seat in Congress by just 3 % .
Now , in 2020 , this race for the 24th district is a tossup , making it a perfect second stop in the Guardian ’ s Anywhere But Washington series , in which I am traveling the country with film-maker Tom Silverstone .
“ As soon as Trump was elected folks needed to feel as though they @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sure that they save their communities and this country , ” says Candace Valenzuela , the Democrat running here .
“ We knew Donald Trump would be disastrous for the state of this country , and I think that movement here is gaining speed because Trump shows himself to be more and more derelict of his duties.
” The tight race here is an indication not only of some suburban voters ’ distaste for some of the more extreme moments of the Trump presidency , but also of Texas ’ s evolving electorate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as a whole , is becoming increasingly diverse .
By 2022 Hispanic Americans will become the majority in Texas , in the 24th district they now make up almost 25 % of the population .
There are two opposing visions of the suburbs described in this election .
For Donald Trump , a now archaic depiction of neighborhoods under threat from change : “ If he [ Joe Biden ] ever got to run our country , our suburbs would be gone , ” he said during the first presidential debate .
For @ @ @ @ @ @ @ suburban life is no longer a relic of white communities in the 1950s but dynamic and multicultural : “ He wouldn ’ t know a suburb unless he took a wrong turn , ” Biden retorted in the same debate .
Valenzuela herself is emblematic of a wave of young , dynamic and diverse candidates running down the ballot for the Democrats this year .
If she wins she will become the first Afro-Latina elected to Congress in an election year that has seen the highest number of black women running for office @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as a child and first held political office on the local school board .
Her Republican opponent Beth Van Duyne , a former mayor of the city of Irving , is also an emblem of the current state of her party .
In 2015 Van Duyne drew national controversy for falsely suggesting that a local Islamic tribunal could lead to sharia law , and for passing an entirely symbolic but deeply divisive city ordinance supporting “ American Laws for American Courts ” .
Van Duyne won ’ t speak to me , however @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of this divisive past on her campaign site .
Initially her office says they have no in-person events for me to attend the week I ’ m in town .
But given she ’ s posting images on social media of her out and about meeting residents I suggest to her campaign manager this is a false justification to deny an interview request .
He denies it and adds via email : “ I am pleased we did not accommodate whatever garbage hit piece you are producing.
” Van Duyne later describes me @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on Twitter .
Members of the county Republican party here are more accommodating , however .
And Rick Barnes , president of the Tarrant county Republicans , argues that Trump ’ s presidency has actually brought people together in this district as he expresses confidence in Van Duyne ’ s ability to win the seat .
He cites the president ’ s ongoing war against professional athletes taking a knee during the national anthem as a prime example .
“ It probably speaks to suburban voters more than anybody , ” Barnes says @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s OK to kneel to the US flag is not a good conversation for suburbanites at all .
Around here everyone I talk to says good riddance , we don ’ t need to continue to watch pro sports.
” Barnes hasn ’ t watched any professional sport other than golf since Colin Kaepernick took up his first protest .
But outward political sentiment is mainstream in sports now , with NBA courts and player jerseys emblazoned with social justice messaging .
At Texas Woman ’ s University , a nearby college campus @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Jolt Action , is trying to capitalize on surging participation from young people by registering first-time voters .
The organization was founded shortly after Trump won in 2016 and says it helped to boost youth turnout statewide by 500 % in 2018 and Latino early turnout by 250 % .
Young Latina women voted at a 25 % higher rate than their male counterparts .
“ We want to make sure that Texas understands that the next chapter of Texas history will be written by black and brown women that are leading the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Antonio Arellano , the group ’ s young , charismatic interim director .
“ The Latino community in Texas has been terrorized for the last decade by our statewide officials , by the federal government .
Our communities have come under direct attack , ” he says , pointing to a 2019 white nationalist terror attack against the Latino community in the city of El Paso in south Texas , where a lone gunman took 23 lives .
But voter registration here is made more complicated by the pandemic .
A once bustling @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Texas ’ s antiquated voter registration system makes the job even harder .
I watch volunteers from Jolt sign up fewer than 10 new voters in one session .
But , says Arellano , every vote will count in a presidential race that is tightening by the day .
Voter suppression is also rampant in the state of Texas , which has some of the harshest voter ID laws in the country and last week moved to curtail early voting by limiting mail-in-ballot drop-off sites to one per county ( Tarrant county alone @ @ @ @ @ @ @ . )
But the enthusiasm among the younger voters we do speak to here is palpable .
Many are first-generation immigrants and are motivated to turn up by Trump ’ s hardline immigration policies that have seen children separated from their families and the partial construction of a wall at the southern border .
“ It breaks me , ” says one first-year student as she registers to vote .
“ My mum crossed the border herself.
” It ’ s clear that candidates like Valenzuela empathize with such views .
“ When @ @ @ @ @ @ @ color in Texas , there ’ s a lot to love about Texas , ” she says .
“ But you are also very much used to many political officials not caring about your wellbeing to the point of even villainizing you in order to make their own political points .
”

Texas’s 24th congressional district is in many ways a microcosm for this entire election.
An expansive sprawl of suburbia that connects the cities of Dallas and Fort Worth, it has for the past 15 years been dominated by conservative politics. The incumbent Republican congressman Kenny Marchant has held the district since 2004 but his retirement, announced to little fanfare last year, has sparked a political turf war that crystallizes Texas’s rapid diversification and the bitter politics that underpin it.
When Marchant, now 69, first won here he carried the area with a decisive 64% of the vote, and those margins continued for over a decade. But in 2018, two years into the Trump era, he clung to his seat in Congress by just 3%.
Now, in 2020, this race for the 24th district is a tossup, making it a perfect second stop in the Guardian’s Anywhere But Washington series, in which I am traveling the country with film-maker Tom Silverstone.
“As soon as Trump was elected folks needed to feel as though they were doing everything they could to make sure that they save their communities and this country,” says Candace Valenzuela, the Democrat running here. “We knew Donald Trump would be disastrous for the state of this country, and I think that movement here is gaining speed because Trump shows himself to be more and more derelict of his duties.”
The tight race here is an indication not only of some suburban voters’ distaste for some of the more extreme moments of the Trump presidency, but also of Texas’s evolving electorate. This district, like the state as a whole, is becoming increasingly diverse. By 2022 Hispanic Americans will become the majority in Texas, in the 24th district they now make up almost 25% of the population.
There are two opposing visions of the suburbs described in this election. For Donald Trump, a now archaic depiction of neighborhoods under threat from change: “If he [Joe Biden] ever got to run our country, our suburbs would be gone,” he said during the first presidential debate. For Biden, an increasingly realistic assertion that suburban life is no longer a relic of white communities in the 1950s but dynamic and multicultural: “He wouldn’t know a suburb unless he took a wrong turn,” Biden retorted in the same debate.
Valenzuela herself is emblematic of a wave of young, dynamic and diverse candidates running down the ballot for the Democrats this year. If she wins she will become the first Afro-Latina elected to Congress in an election year that has seen the highest number of black women running for office in US history. She battled homelessness as a child and first held political office on the local school board.
Her Republican opponent Beth Van Duyne, a former mayor of the city of Irving, is also an emblem of the current state of her party. In 2015 Van Duyne drew national controversy for falsely suggesting that a local Islamic tribunal could lead to sharia law, and for passing an entirely symbolic but deeply divisive city ordinance supporting “American Laws for American Courts”.
Van Duyne won’t speak to me, however, and there’s little mention of this divisive past on her campaign site. Initially her office says they have no in-person events for me to attend the week I’m in town. But given she’s posting images on social media of her out and about meeting residents I suggest to her campaign manager this is a false justification to deny an interview request. He denies it and adds via email: “I am pleased we did not accommodate whatever garbage hit piece you are producing.” Van Duyne later describes me as a “liberal hack reporter” on Twitter.
Candace Valenzuela, a candidate for US Representative in Texas’s 24th district, in El Paso, Texas. Photograph: Tom Silverstone
Members of the county Republican party here are more accommodating, however. And Rick Barnes, president of the Tarrant county Republicans, argues that Trump’s presidency has actually brought people together in this district as he expresses confidence in Van Duyne’s ability to win the seat. He cites the president’s ongoing war against professional athletes taking a knee during the national anthem as a prime example.
“It probably speaks to suburban voters more than anybody,” Barnes says. “Telling anybody that it’s OK to kneel to the US flag is not a good conversation for suburbanites at all. Around here everyone I talk to says good riddance, we don’t need to continue to watch pro sports.”
Barnes hasn’t watched any professional sport other than golf since Colin Kaepernick took up his first protest. But outward political sentiment is mainstream in sports now, with NBA courts and player jerseys emblazoned with social justice messaging.
At Texas Woman’s University, a nearby college campus, the Latinx voter advocacy group, Jolt Action, is trying to capitalize on surging participation from young people by registering first-time voters. The organization was founded shortly after Trump won in 2016 and says it helped to boost youth turnout statewide by 500% in 2018 and Latino early turnout by 250%. Young Latina women voted at a 25% higher rate than their male counterparts.
“We want to make sure that Texas understands that the next chapter of Texas history will be written by black and brown women that are leading the charge on civic engagement,” says Antonio Arellano, the group’s young, charismatic interim director.
“The Latino community in Texas has been terrorized for the last decade by our statewide officials, by the federal government. Our communities have come under direct attack,” he says, pointing to a 2019 white nationalist terror attack against the Latino community in the city of El Paso in south Texas, where a lone gunman took 23 lives.
But voter registration here is made more complicated by the pandemic. A once bustling campus is now sparsely populated, and Texas’s antiquated voter registration system makes the job even harder. I watch volunteers from Jolt sign up fewer than 10 new voters in one session. But, says Arellano, every vote will count in a presidential race that is tightening by the day.
Voter suppression is also rampant in the state of Texas, which has some of the harshest voter ID laws in the country and last week moved to curtail early voting by limiting mail-in-ballot drop-off sites to one per county (Tarrant county alone has a population of 2.1 million people.)
But the enthusiasm among the younger voters we do speak to here is palpable. Many are first-generation immigrants and are motivated to turn up by Trump’s hardline immigration policies that have seen children separated from their families and the partial construction of a wall at the southern border.
“It breaks me,” says one first-year student as she registers to vote. “My mum crossed the border herself.”
It’s clear that candidates like Valenzuela empathize with such views.
“When you grow up as a person of color in Texas, there’s a lot to love about Texas,” she says. “But you are also very much used to many political officials not caring about your wellbeing to the point of even villainizing you in order to make their own political points.”


theguardian--2020-10-11--Holy war: Republicans eager to focus Amy Coney Barrett hearings on religion

When Donald Trump ’ s latest supreme court nominee , Amy Coney Barrett , arrives before the Senate judiciary committee for her confirmation hearings on Monday , Democrats will be out to raise an alarm that Barrett could help strike down the Affordable Care Act in the very first case she hears .
But in the weeks leading up to the hearings , Republicans have been out for something else entirely : a holy war .
The future of the supreme court hinges on the Barrett hearings .
But the hearings will be backgrounded by a political fight over religion @ @ @ @ @ @ @ question of whether Barrett replaces Ruth Bader Ginsburg , the late liberal justice , on the court .
If Republicans can make it look like Democrats are attacking Barrett , a conservative Catholic , for her religious views , they believe , that could stir enough political anger to rescue a couple of tight Senate races in the elections on 3 November – and potentially save the teetering Republican Senate majority .
Democrats hope to defeat the Barrett nomination on the merits .
But they also hope to take control of the Senate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and then pass a bulwark of laws on key issues – healthcare , reproductive rights , marriage equality , voting rights , the climate emergency – to withstand what could be decades of tendentious rulings by a supreme court with as many as three Trump-appointed justices on it .
The current Senate judiciary committee chair , Lindsey Graham , who happens to be among the most endangered Republican incumbents , explained the Republican strategy last month on Fox News , saying Democratic protests over credible sexual assault allegations against Trump ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the 2018 midterm elections .
“ Kavanaugh really did help Republicans pick up Senate seats because they went too far , ” Graham said .
In a transparent attempt to whip up a comparable spectacle around the Barrett nomination , Senate Republicans have produced an ominous video featuring tense footage from the Kavanaugh hearings and accusing Democrats of a “ radical power plot ” to attack Barrett over her religious beliefs .
But prominent Democrats have urged a minimum of pageantry during the Barrett hearings and a focus on Barrett ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , same-sex marriage and other issues .
“ It is going to be really important to not give Lindsey Graham and the rest of the Republicans a moment of righteous vindication over a circus-like atmosphere , ” the former Democratic senator Claire McCaskill said on a popular politics podcast this week .
“ So I just think this is one of those times when some of our most passionate supporters that are so angry on behalf of Ruth Bader Ginsburg , that they ’ ve got to realize that there is a better @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in handmaid costumes.
” To protest against the Barrett nomination earlier this month , activists stood outside the supreme court wearing red robes and white bonnets , recognizable from the TV series based on the Margaret Atwood novel of female subjugation , The Handmaid ’ s Tale .
Democrats should focus on the threat posed to healthcare by Barrett , who in 2017 published a critique of Chief Justice John Roberts ’ 2012 ruling to uphold the Affordable Care Act , said Ben Jealous , president of the progressive People for the American @ @ @ @ @ @ @ just one week after the election , the supreme court is scheduled to hear a separate case that could vacate the law .
“ The confirmation hearings have to be all about what the nomination is about : destroying healthcare for millions of Americans , ” Jealous said .
“ Anybody who wants to make this about a nominee ’ s personality , or even the life they ’ ve lived so far , is missing the point.
” Democrats on the committee acknowledge they do not currently have the votes to stop @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Senator Cory Booker said last week that procedural stalling measures would not work – because the Senate majority leader , Mitch McConnell , could merely change the rules to keep the nomination on track .
Progressives must not write off the Ginsburg seat as lost , however , said Neil Sroka of the progressive Democracy for America group .
“ America elected Democrats to fight for a bolder progressive vision for the future of the country , ” he said .
“ And sometimes fighting means taking on difficult battles even if you @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s possible that you can win.
” Sroka said it was “ appalling ” and “ laughable ” that after having stood behind Trump ’ s Muslim bans , Republicans would accuse Democrats of elevating religious prejudice .
“ Religious tests have no place in public life , and Democrats are the one party in the country right now that have been consistent on that , ” Sroka said .
Throughout the Trump presidency , McConnell has prioritized the confirmation of conservative judges .
But the measures he has taken to confirm Barrett @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the Trump administration , which to movement conservatives would represent the culmination of a decades-long design on the supreme court , were seen as extraordinary even for him .
All other business in the Senate has adjourned for two weeks over health concerns following an outbreak on Capitol Hill of Covid-19 – but the Barrett hearing will proceed “ full steam ahead ” , McConnell announced .
Two of the Republican senators on the committee , Thom Tillis of North Carolina and Mike Lee of Utah , announced last week that they @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a White House event to celebrate the Barrett nomination .
Many others who attended the event also later tested positive , including the president and first lady , leading to whispers in Washington of a new nickname for the nominee : Amy “ Covid ” Barrett .
Graham , who has refused to be tested for coronavirus himself , has said that recuperating senators could attend committee hearings virtually , in an unusual arrangement that Booker said was inappropriate for the consideration of a lifetime supreme court appointment .
“ We now have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ill , and I pray for their wellbeing , but this just further highlights that this process is just wrong , ” Booker told the Pod Save America podcast .
Jealous said it was ironic that the Republicans were taking health risks to secure the confirmation of a nominee who could , within weeks , begin dismantling a crucial healthcare law .
“ Literally you have senators who are exposed to Covid because of a super-spreader event , refusing to get tested , so that they don ’ t have to quarantine , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to appoint a judge who will take away healthcare from their neighbors in the midst of a pandemic , ” said Jealous .
The Republican rush to confirm Barrett , Sroka said , betrayed their awareness that neither the nominee nor the confirmation process has the support of the American people .
“ If they knew that the American people were on their side , and they knew that they had the support of the public on the issues that they ’ re trying to force through this court , they wouldn ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ re doing right now , ” Sroka said .
“ But they know that they can ’ t win a fair fight , so they ’ re going to use every bit of power they have to force this agenda on us for a generation , while they still have it .
”

When Donald Trump’s latest supreme court nominee, Amy Coney Barrett, arrives before the Senate judiciary committee for her confirmation hearings on Monday, Democrats will be out to raise an alarm that Barrett could help strike down the Affordable Care Act in the very first case she hears.
But in the weeks leading up to the hearings, Republicans have been out for something else entirely: a holy war.
The future of the supreme court hinges on the Barrett hearings. But the hearings will be backgrounded by a political fight over religion that is potentially as important as the question of whether Barrett replaces Ruth Bader Ginsburg, the late liberal justice, on the court.
If Republicans can make it look like Democrats are attacking Barrett, a conservative Catholic, for her religious views, they believe, that could stir enough political anger to rescue a couple of tight Senate races in the elections on 3 November – and potentially save the teetering Republican Senate majority.
Democrats hope to defeat the Barrett nomination on the merits.
But they also hope to take control of the Senate next month, claim the White House, and then pass a bulwark of laws on key issues – healthcare, reproductive rights, marriage equality, voting rights, the climate emergency – to withstand what could be decades of tendentious rulings by a supreme court with as many as three Trump-appointed justices on it.
The current Senate judiciary committee chair, Lindsey Graham, who happens to be among the most endangered Republican incumbents, explained the Republican strategy last month on Fox News, saying Democratic protests over credible sexual assault allegations against Trump’s supreme court nominee Brett Kavanaugh helped Republicans in the 2018 midterm elections.
“Kavanaugh really did help Republicans pick up Senate seats because they went too far,” Graham said.
In a transparent attempt to whip up a comparable spectacle around the Barrett nomination, Senate Republicans have produced an ominous video featuring tense footage from the Kavanaugh hearings and accusing Democrats of a “radical power plot” to attack Barrett over her religious beliefs.
But prominent Democrats have urged a minimum of pageantry during the Barrett hearings and a focus on Barrett’s views on the healthcare law, abortion, same-sex marriage and other issues.
“It is going to be really important to not give Lindsey Graham and the rest of the Republicans a moment of righteous vindication over a circus-like atmosphere,” the former Democratic senator Claire McCaskill said on a popular politics podcast this week.
“So I just think this is one of those times when some of our most passionate supporters that are so angry on behalf of Ruth Bader Ginsburg, that they’ve got to realize that there is a better way than flooding the halls with women in handmaid costumes.”
To protest against the Barrett nomination earlier this month, activists stood outside the supreme court wearing red robes and white bonnets, recognizable from the TV series based on the Margaret Atwood novel of female subjugation, The Handmaid’s Tale.
Democrats should focus on the threat posed to healthcare by Barrett, who in 2017 published a critique of Chief Justice John Roberts’ 2012 ruling to uphold the Affordable Care Act, said Ben Jealous, president of the progressive People for the American Way group. On 10 November, just one week after the election, the supreme court is scheduled to hear a separate case that could vacate the law.
“The confirmation hearings have to be all about what the nomination is about: destroying healthcare for millions of Americans,” Jealous said. “Anybody who wants to make this about a nominee’s personality, or even the life they’ve lived so far, is missing the point.”
Democrats on the committee acknowledge they do not currently have the votes to stop the nomination from moving forward, and Senator Cory Booker said last week that procedural stalling measures would not work – because the Senate majority leader, Mitch McConnell, could merely change the rules to keep the nomination on track.
Progressives must not write off the Ginsburg seat as lost, however, said Neil Sroka of the progressive Democracy for America group.
The former Democratic senator Claire MacCaskill chided progressives that ‘they’ve got to realize that there is a better way than flooding the halls with women in handmaid costumes’. Photograph: Alex Edelman/EPA
“America elected Democrats to fight for a bolder progressive vision for the future of the country,” he said. “And sometimes fighting means taking on difficult battles even if you’re not sure if it’s possible that you can win.”
Sroka said it was “appalling” and “laughable” that after having stood behind Trump’s Muslim bans, Republicans would accuse Democrats of elevating religious prejudice.
“Religious tests have no place in public life, and Democrats are the one party in the country right now that have been consistent on that,” Sroka said.
Throughout the Trump presidency, McConnell has prioritized the confirmation of conservative judges. But the measures he has taken to confirm Barrett in what could be the waning days of the Trump administration, which to movement conservatives would represent the culmination of a decades-long design on the supreme court, were seen as extraordinary even for him.
All other business in the Senate has adjourned for two weeks over health concerns following an outbreak on Capitol Hill of Covid-19 – but the Barrett hearing will proceed “full steam ahead”, McConnell announced.
Two of the Republican senators on the committee, Thom Tillis of North Carolina and Mike Lee of Utah, announced last week that they had tested positive for Covid-19 after attending a White House event to celebrate the Barrett nomination. Many others who attended the event also later tested positive, including the president and first lady, leading to whispers in Washington of a new nickname for the nominee: Amy “Covid” Barrett.
Graham, who has refused to be tested for coronavirus himself, has said that recuperating senators could attend committee hearings virtually, in an unusual arrangement that Booker said was inappropriate for the consideration of a lifetime supreme court appointment.
“We now have members of our committee who have fallen ill, and I pray for their wellbeing, but this just further highlights that this process is just wrong,” Booker told the Pod Save America podcast.
Jealous said it was ironic that the Republicans were taking health risks to secure the confirmation of a nominee who could, within weeks, begin dismantling a crucial healthcare law.
“Literally you have senators who are exposed to Covid because of a super-spreader event, refusing to get tested, so that they don’t have to quarantine, so that they can make a vote to appoint a judge who will take away healthcare from their neighbors in the midst of a pandemic,” said Jealous.
The Republican rush to confirm Barrett, Sroka said, betrayed their awareness that neither the nominee nor the confirmation process has the support of the American people.
“If they knew that the American people were on their side, and they knew that they had the support of the public on the issues that they’re trying to force through this court, they wouldn’t need to do what they’re doing right now,” Sroka said.
“But they know that they can’t win a fair fight, so they’re going to use every bit of power they have to force this agenda on us for a generation, while they still have it.”


theguardian--2020-10-11--Republicans express fears Donald Trump will lose presidential election

Ted Cruz fears an election “ bloodbath ” .
His fellow top Republican senator Thom Tillis is talking in terms of a Joe Biden presidency .
And even Mitch McConnell , the fiercely loyal Senate majority leader , won ’ t go near the White House over Donald Trump ’ s handling of coronavirus protocols .
Individually , they could arguably be seen as off-the-cuff comments from Trump ’ s allies attempting to rally support for the US president just days ahead of a general election that opinion polls increasingly show him losing .
But collectively , along with pronouncements @ @ @ @ @ @ @ themselves from Trump , his administration and its policies , it reflects growing concern inside the Republican party ’ s top tier that 3 November could be a blowout win for Joe Biden and the Democrats .
“ I think it could be a terrible election .
I think we could lose the White House and both houses of Congress , that it could be a bloodbath of Watergate proportions , ” Cruz , the junior senator for Texas and former vocal critic of Trump , said in an interview on CNBC ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I am worried .
It ’ s volatile , it ’ s highly volatile , ” he added , although he did say he also saw the possibility of Trump re-elected “ with a big margin ” .
Tillis , one of several Trump associates who contracted Covid-19 apparently at a super-spreader White House event two weeks ago , faces a tough fight for re-election as senator for North Carolina , and raised the prospect of a Trump defeat during a debate against Democratic challenger Cal Cunningham .
“ The best check on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have a majority in the senate , ” he said , inadvertently suggesting he thought a Democratic victory next month could be a done deal .
“ Checks and balances does resonate with North Carolina voters , ” he added .
Elsewhere , Republican displeasure at Trump is becoming increasingly evident , especially among candidates locked in tight election races of their own .
Martha McSally , the Arizona senator trailing the former Nasa astronaut Mark Kelly by a significant margin , attacked Trump for his repeated attacks on her predecessor , John @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pisses me off when he does it , ” she said in a debate this week .
The Texas senator John Cornyn slammed Trump this week for “ creating confusion ” over coronavirus and “ letting his guard down ” as the pandemic spread across the nation .
McConnell ’ s comments , meanwhile , about why he has not been to the White House for at least two months could be seen in a different context , given he is 78 and in the same at-risk demographic as the already infected president @ @ @ @ @ @ @ approach to how to handle this is different from mine and what I suggested that we do in the Senate , which is to wear a mask and practice social distancing , ” he said .
But dissent from the staunch Trump ally has been almost unheard of through the four years of the presidency .
McConnell ’ s words seem to reflect the threat that a nationwide backlash to Trump ’ s pandemic handling poses to the Republican senate majority .

Ted Cruz fears an election “bloodbath”. His fellow top Republican senator Thom Tillis is talking in terms of a Joe Biden presidency. And even Mitch McConnell, the fiercely loyal Senate majority leader, won’t go near the White House over Donald Trump’s handling of coronavirus protocols.
Individually, they could arguably be seen as off-the-cuff comments from Trump’s allies attempting to rally support for the US president just days ahead of a general election that opinion polls increasingly show him losing.
But collectively, along with pronouncements from several other Republicans appearing to distance themselves from Trump, his administration and its policies, it reflects growing concern inside the Republican party’s top tier that 3 November could be a blowout win for Joe Biden and the Democrats.
“I think it could be a terrible election. I think we could lose the White House and both houses of Congress, that it could be a bloodbath of Watergate proportions,” Cruz, the junior senator for Texas and former vocal critic of Trump, said in an interview on CNBC’s Squawk Box on Friday.
“I am worried. It’s volatile, it’s highly volatile,” he added, although he did say he also saw the possibility of Trump re-elected “with a big margin”.
Tillis, one of several Trump associates who contracted Covid-19 apparently at a super-spreader White House event two weeks ago, faces a tough fight for re-election as senator for North Carolina, and raised the prospect of a Trump defeat during a debate against Democratic challenger Cal Cunningham.
“The best check on a Biden presidency is for Republicans to have a majority in the senate,” he said, inadvertently suggesting he thought a Democratic victory next month could be a done deal. “Checks and balances does resonate with North Carolina voters,” he added.
Elsewhere, Republican displeasure at Trump is becoming increasingly evident, especially among candidates locked in tight election races of their own.
Martha McSally, the Arizona senator trailing the former Nasa astronaut Mark Kelly by a significant margin, attacked Trump for his repeated attacks on her predecessor, John McCain. “Quite frankly, it pisses me off when he does it,” she said in a debate this week.
The Texas senator John Cornyn slammed Trump this week for “creating confusion” over coronavirus and “letting his guard down” as the pandemic spread across the nation.
McConnell’s comments, meanwhile, about why he has not been to the White House for at least two months could be seen in a different context, given he is 78 and in the same at-risk demographic as the already infected president.
“My impression was that their approach to how to handle this is different from mine and what I suggested that we do in the Senate, which is to wear a mask and practice social distancing,” he said.
But dissent from the staunch Trump ally has been almost unheard of through the four years of the presidency. McConnell’s words seem to reflect the threat that a nationwide backlash to Trump’s pandemic handling poses to the Republican senate majority.


theguardian--2020-10-11--Biden looking good - but concern over polls mean Democrats are cautious

As the Democratic presidential primaries drew to a close in the spring , Laura Hubka was left wondering how she was going to sell Joe Biden to voters in her corner of rural Iowa .
Hubka , an ultrasound technologist and chair of Howard county Democrats , lamented that the party cast aside an array of more inspirational , younger and original candidates in favor of a fading politician past his prime .
Personally , she backed Pete Buttigieg , the young , gay former Indiana mayor .
Hubka couldn ’ t see how a candidate as uninspiring as Biden @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in a part of Iowa that swung heavily from Barack Obama to Donald Trump four years ago .
She quietly braced herself for yet another defeat .
Months later , Biden is riding high in the polls and , if the numbers are to be believed , is on his way to a significant victory in three weeks to put an end to the most tumultuous presidency of modern times .
Support for the former vice-president has surged in recent days as the White House lurches from crisis to disaster .
Democrats are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ them the nightmare of losing an election four years ago that all the polls said Hillary Clinton was going to win .
Biden is up to 16 points ahead nationally on the back of Trump ’ s antics in the most undignified presidential election debate in history and his cavalier attitude to other people ’ s health after he contracted coronavirus .
Suddenly must-win states like Pennsylvania , Michigan and Wisconsin seem safe for Biden .
States that looked to be just beyond his grasp , like Florida and Iowa , and maybe @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , are competitive .
But Hubka is not sure she does believe the polls .
“ I don ’ t want to believe any of them , and I don ’ t want anyone else to believe them either .
I don ’ t want one person to stay home and not vote , like when they thought Hillary Clinton was 15 points ahead , ” she said .
“ I do think that there ’ s a few people that may have been making excuses for Trump who feel a little more @ @ @ @ @ @ @ might vote for Joe Biden .
But sitting where I live , I don ’ t feel like there ’ s a 14 , 15 point lead .
He ’ s not ahead by that.
” Poll after poll nevertheless says that Biden is in a commanding position with his numbers constantly pushed up by voters recoiling from Trump ’ s actions .
A Franklin Pierce University survey in recent days showed that far from engendering sympathy , the president contracting Covid-19 precipitated a collapse in support .
Days earlier , Biden held @ @ @ @ @ @ @ After the diagnosis , the former vice-president surged to 55 % while the president fell back to just 34 % .
Other polls mirror those findings .
Crucially , Biden has a 12-point lead among independent voters who will decide the election in key swing states .
For all that , the political analyst Larry Sabato thinks Hubka is wise to be cautious .
He said Biden ’ s position would be much weaker if not for the president ’ s chaotic and cavalier handling of a pandemic that has claimed 215,000 deaths @ @ @ @ @ @ @ more by election day .
But he said the polls do not reflect what will happen when the votes are counted .
“ He ’ s not winning by 14 or 16 points .
Not a chance .
We ’ re too polarized for that .
What happened was a lot of Trump supporters became discouraged after the debate and after his hospitalization and simply wouldn ’ t participate in the polls .
This has happened before .
So I think Biden will win , probably by a healthy margin .
But nothing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s a sugar high , ” said Sabato , director of the Center for Politics as the University of Virginia .
Republican party election organizers recognized months ago that the election was shaping up as a referendum on Trump ’ s handling of coronavirus and he was not being judged favorably .
Hubka acknowledges that without the pandemic , Biden would be struggling to compete with the president .
“ I absolutely do think if the stock market was still high and unemployment numbers were still at 3 % it would have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ His poll numbers would not be where they are , ” she said .
But Sabato said that while coronavirus has been key in Biden ’ s rise , it is not the only factor in an increasingly disastrous year for the president .
“ Covid changed everything .
On January 1 , most people in my field believed that Trump was the favorite .
The economy was golden .
He was the incumbent .
He could take full credit the way incumbents always do , even if they had nothing to do @ @ @ @ @ @ @ discouraged , ” said Sabato .
“ Then came the pandemic and the economic collapse .
Then the police shootings of blacks , and the incredible irresponsibility of Donald Trump and his key associates which has resulted in a cell of Covid in the White House .
The debate was a complete disaster for Trump .
This is karma , some would say.
” Trump ’ s attempts to delegitimize the Black Lives Matter protests after the police killing of George Floyd in Milwaukee in May helped drive younger voters toward Biden , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ great affinity with .
Katybeth Davis lives in a blue-collar community just south of Detroit that swung heavily to Trump four years ago .
That shift was instrumental in delivering Michigan to the president by just 10,704 votes , providing an important part of the electoral college that put him in the White House .
Polls now put Biden eight points ahead in Michigan .
“ You see Biden signs all over the place now when you hardly saw any for Hillary , ” said Davis , a 36 year-old construction company supervisor @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” , including African , Native American and European ancestry .
Davis was drawn into political activism by the Black Lives Matter protests , a cause she said has done a lot more than the coronavirus to mobilize younger voters who did not engaged with politics before .
“ There is a huge surge in the younger voters participating , going into the lower income neighborhoods doing voter registration , ” she said .
“ They see that everything we ’ ve worked for , a lot of social justice issues , are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ We have a rightwing supreme court now .
We could lose marriage equality .
Women ’ s rights .
The huge reason I believe that women are going for Joe now is because they realize that Roe v Wade is literally on the line .
Immigration ’ s on the line .
This is our diversity that ’ s on the line .
This is racial equality , gender equality .
This is literally every single value that we have.
” Opinion polls show that not only are voters under 30 overwhelmingly more @ @ @ @ @ @ @ who say they will definitely vote is up to 63 % from 47 % four years ago , according to a Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics poll .
Biden also has a consistent and widening lead in another prize state , Florida .
If he were to take it , that would almost certainly block any hope of Trump winning the election , although Biden is still doing worse with conservative Latinos there than his Democratic predecessors .
Trump supporters routinely dismiss the increasingly alarming polls for their man as flawed or @ @ @ @ @ @ @ doing no better than Clinton who was polling similar numbers and still lost .
“ It ’ s not true , ” said Sabato .
“ Biden is doing much better than Clinton , mainly because he doesn ’ t stir the negative emotions that Hillary did .
Some of it was just pure gender bias but a lot of it was with her personality , and dislike for the Clintons .
So I think Biden is in a much better position .
He ’ s relatively inoffensive.
” Other underlying trends in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ There has been a significant shift to the former vice-president among older voters , some of them recoiling from Trump ’ s lack of respect for the decorum of his office .
For the first time in at least two decades , a majority of voters over 65 back a Democrat for president with Biden winning 60 % support .
Women have also shifted to Biden in significant numbers .
He commands a huge 27-point margin among female voters , nearly twice that for Clinton four years ago .
Biden is even gaining @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in 2016 .
Support among black voters is as strong as always for Democratic presidential candidates but the key will be turning out African Americans to the polls after they stayed home in large numbers when Clinton ran .
All of this matters most in the handful of states that will decide the election .
Wisconsin is among the most crucial after Obama ’ s significant majority there in 2012 vanished when Clinton lost the state by only about 23,000 votes even though the polls put her ahead by about six points .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ points in the lead .
Charles Franklin , director of Wisconsin ’ s respected Marquette poll , said that is a reason to be cautious but there are important differences .
For a start , the proportion of voters saying they are undecided in Wisconsin is about half that of 2016 so there is less room for Trump to pick up additional support .
In addition , four years ago the polls showed a lot of people really didn ’ t like Clinton even if they didn ’ t like Trump either so @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Biden is regarded much more favorably , making it easier to vote against Trump .
Franklin ’ s latest poll also shows an increased determination to vote this year , and that is likely to benefit Biden .
“ It suggests that we will be very close to a record for turnout in a presidential year when the state saw a fall in turnout in 2016 , ” he said .
“ Most of the drop-off in votes four years ago was on the Democratic side .
Hillary Clinton got close to 250,000 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Mitt Romney in 2012 ) .
But Trump only barely exceeded Romney ’ s total .
Given the way Democrats feel about President Trump , I don ’ t expect to see a similarly one-sided drop-off this year .
I think Democrats generally are very positive to Joe Biden , but they are extraordinarily negative to Donald Trump .
So in many ways , Trump is the Democrats ’ greatest get-out-the-vote argument.
” It is difficult to see how Trump overcomes any surge in turnout for Biden in Wisconsin and other swing states @ @ @ @ @ @ @ remains loyal , he does not appear to be picking up significant numbers of new voters who have come on board because they are happy about the way things have gone over the past four years .
Instead he is struggling to hold on to those he won over in 2016 .
As much as Hubka would liked to have seen her fellow Democrats chose a different presidential candidate , she thinks Biden turned out to be a fortuitous choice at time when significant numbers of voters appear to have retreated from their @ @ @ @ @ @ @ want an end to the crazy ” .
“ I don ’ t find a lot of people jumping for joy that it ’ s Joe Biden but they ’ re glad that it ’ s him because they feel like he can win .
He can reassure Republicans who want to get away from Trump .
They know that he was with Obama and they can look at him and say , ‘ At least he can fill this space and do the job and I can sleep at night , not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ happen next , ’ ” said Hubka .
Still , Americans are acutely aware that this is 2020 and there are more than three weeks to the polls , an eternity in a month that has already seen its share of political drama .
Democrats see the president ’ s attempts to disrupt the election , such as his attacks on postal voting , as an implicit recognition that he is losing and only expect him to get more desperate .
Trump ’ s calls to mobilise militias to ostensibly monitor the vote @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to intimidate voters in areas likely to back Biden , alarms Hubka .
So does his endorsement of the white nationalist militias during the debate , particularly after the FBI exposed a rightwing militia plot to abduct the governor of Michigan .
It ’ s all part of a pattern of increasingly erratic behaviour , including Trump berating his own cabinet last week for not prosecuting his political enemies , that has Democrats on edge whatever the polls may say .
“ I feel a little more confident that Biden can win but @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s going to happen tomorrow or the next day , ” said Hubka .
“ I ’ m fatigued .
Every day I wake up worrying about what craziness Trump ’ s going to bring .
I don ’ t know that I ’ ve ever felt this uneasy about all sorts of different things that are happening right now .
I can ’ t get a good feel of it .
It makes me nauseous , actually , just thinking of what ’ s he gon na do to win.
” “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ don ’ t think there ’ s anything that Trump could do right now that would save him .
Even if he has a vaccine before the election .
I don ’ t even think a big stimulus package is going to help either .
To be honest , I think the Republicans have even come to terms with it .
I just want it to be over with .
I really do , ” she said .

As the Democratic presidential primaries drew to a close in the spring, Laura Hubka was left wondering how she was going to sell Joe Biden to voters in her corner of rural Iowa.
Hubka, an ultrasound technologist and chair of Howard county Democrats, lamented that the party cast aside an array of more inspirational, younger and original candidates in favor of a fading politician past his prime. Personally, she backed Pete Buttigieg, the young, gay former Indiana mayor.
Hubka couldn’t see how a candidate as uninspiring as Biden would draw support away from the president in a part of Iowa that swung heavily from Barack Obama to Donald Trump four years ago. She quietly braced herself for yet another defeat.
Months later, Biden is riding high in the polls and, if the numbers are to be believed, is on his way to a significant victory in three weeks to put an end to the most tumultuous presidency of modern times. Support for the former vice-president has surged in recent days as the White House lurches from crisis to disaster. Democrats are daring to hope they can put behind them the nightmare of losing an election four years ago that all the polls said Hillary Clinton was going to win.
Biden is up to 16 points ahead nationally on the back of Trump’s antics in the most undignified presidential election debate in history and his cavalier attitude to other people’s health after he contracted coronavirus. Suddenly must-win states like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin seem safe for Biden. States that looked to be just beyond his grasp, like Florida and Iowa, and maybe even Republican strongholds like Texas and Georgia, are competitive.
But Hubka is not sure she does believe the polls.
I don’t want one person to stay home and not vote, like when they thought Hillary Clinton was 15 points ahead Laura Hubka
“I don’t want to believe any of them, and I don’t want anyone else to believe them either. I don’t want one person to stay home and not vote, like when they thought Hillary Clinton was 15 points ahead,” she said. “I do think that there’s a few people that may have been making excuses for Trump who feel a little more ashamed or a little more like they might vote for Joe Biden. But sitting where I live, I don’t feel like there’s a 14-, 15-point lead. He’s not ahead by that.”
Poll after poll nevertheless says that Biden is in a commanding position with his numbers constantly pushed up by voters recoiling from Trump’s actions. A Franklin Pierce University survey in recent days showed that far from engendering sympathy, the president contracting Covid-19 precipitated a collapse in support. Days earlier, Biden held a five point lead over Trump. After the diagnosis, the former vice-president surged to 55% while the president fell back to just 34%.
Other polls mirror those findings. Crucially, Biden has a 12-point lead among independent voters who will decide the election in key swing states.
For all that, the political analyst Larry Sabato thinks Hubka is wise to be cautious. He said Biden’s position would be much weaker if not for the president’s chaotic and cavalier handling of a pandemic that has claimed 215,000 deaths and will probably take tens of thousands more by election day. But he said the polls do not reflect what will happen when the votes are counted.
A parade of more than 300 golf carts supporting Je Biden caravan to the Sumter county elections office in Florida to cast their ballots on 7 October. Photograph: John Raoux/AP
“He’s not winning by 14 or 16 points. Not a chance. We’re too polarized for that. What happened was a lot of Trump supporters became discouraged after the debate and after his hospitalization and simply wouldn’t participate in the polls. This has happened before. So I think Biden will win, probably by a healthy margin. But nothing like the current numbers suggest. It’s a sugar high,” said Sabato, director of the Center for Politics as the University of Virginia.
Republican party election organizers recognized months ago that the election was shaping up as a referendum on Trump’s handling of coronavirus and he was not being judged favorably. Hubka acknowledges that without the pandemic, Biden would be struggling to compete with the president.
“I absolutely do think if the stock market was still high and unemployment numbers were still at 3% it would have been more difficult for Joe Biden. His poll numbers would not be where they are,” she said.
But Sabato said that while coronavirus has been key in Biden’s rise, it is not the only factor in an increasingly disastrous year for the president.
“Covid changed everything. On January 1, most people in my field believed that Trump was the favorite. The economy was golden. He was the incumbent. He could take full credit the way incumbents always do, even if they had nothing to do with the economic engine. Democrats were discouraged,” said Sabato.
“Then came the pandemic and the economic collapse. Then the police shootings of blacks, and the incredible irresponsibility of Donald Trump and his key associates which has resulted in a cell of Covid in the White House. The debate was a complete disaster for Trump. This is karma, some would say.”
Donald Trump and Joe Biden participate in a presidential debate in Cleveland, Ohio, on 29 September. Photograph: Jim Lo Scalzo/EPA
Trump’s attempts to delegitimize the Black Lives Matter protests after the police killing of George Floyd in Minneapolis in May helped drive younger voters toward Biden, a candidate few of them feel any great affinity with.
Katybeth Davis lives in a blue-collar community just south of Detroit that swung heavily to Trump four years ago. That shift was instrumental in delivering Michigan to the president by just 10,704 votes, providing an important part of the electoral college that put him in the White House.
Polls now put Biden eight points ahead in Michigan.
“You see Biden signs all over the place now when you hardly saw any for Hillary,” said Davis, a 36 year-old construction company supervisor who describes herself as “super mixed-race”, including African, Native American and European ancestry.
Davis was drawn into political activism by the Black Lives Matter protests, a cause she said has done a lot more than the coronavirus to mobilize younger voters who did not engaged with politics before.
“There is a huge surge in the younger voters participating, going into the lower income neighborhoods doing voter registration,” she said. “They see that everything we’ve worked for, a lot of social justice issues, are on the line with this election. We have a rightwing supreme court now. We could lose marriage equality. Women’s rights. The huge reason I believe that women are going for Joe now is because they realize that Roe v Wade is literally on the line. Immigration’s on the line. This is our diversity that’s on the line. This is racial equality, gender equality. This is literally every single value that we have.”
Opinion polls show that not only are voters under 30 overwhelmingly more likely to back Biden but the number who say they will definitely vote is up to 63% from 47% four years ago, according to a Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics poll.
Supporters hold signs as they await the arrival of Joe Biden in Erie, Pennsylvania, on 10 October. Photograph: Kevin Lamarque/Reuters
Biden also has a consistent and widening lead in another prize state, Florida. If he were to take it, that would almost certainly block any hope of Trump winning the election, although Biden is still doing worse with conservative Latinos there than his Democratic predecessors.
Trump supporters routinely dismiss the increasingly alarming polls for their man as flawed or faked, and claim that Biden is doing no better than Clinton who was polling similar numbers and still lost.
“It’s not true,” said Sabato. “Biden is doing much better than Clinton, mainly because he doesn’t stir the negative emotions that Hillary did. Some of it was just pure gender bias but a lot of it was with her personality, and dislike for the Clintons. So I think Biden is in a much better position. He’s relatively inoffensive.”
Other underlying trends in the polls look good for Biden. There has been a significant shift to the former vice-president among older voters, some of them recoiling from Trump’s lack of respect for the decorum of his office. For the first time in at least two decades, a majority of voters over 65 back a Democrat for president with Biden winning 60% support.
Women have also shifted to Biden in significant numbers. He commands a huge 27-point margin among female voters, nearly twice that for Clinton four years ago. Biden is even gaining among middle-aged men who overwhelmingly favoured Trump in 2016. Support among black voters is as strong as always for Democratic presidential candidates but the key will be turning out African Americans to the polls after they stayed home in large numbers when Clinton ran.
All of this matters most in the handful of states that will decide the election. Wisconsin is among the most crucial after Obama’s significant majority there in 2012 vanished when Clinton lost the state by only about 23,000 votes even though the polls put her ahead by about six points. Now Biden is consistently five to 10 points in the lead.
Charles Franklin, director of Wisconsin’s respected Marquette poll, said that is a reason to be cautious but there are important differences. For a start, the proportion of voters saying they are undecided in Wisconsin is about half that of 2016 so there is less room for Trump to pick up additional support.
In addition, four years ago the polls showed a lot of people really didn’t like Clinton even if they didn’t like Trump either so many of them stayed at home. Biden is regarded much more favorably, making it easier to vote against Trump.
Franklin’s latest poll also shows an increased determination to vote this year, and that is likely to benefit Biden.
Joe Biden speaks as Kamala Harris listens in Phoenix, Arizona, on 8 October. Photograph: Carolyn Kaster/AP
“It suggests that we will be very close to a record for turnout in a presidential year when the state saw a fall in turnout in 2016,” he said.
“Most of the drop-off in votes four years ago was on the Democratic side. Hillary Clinton got close to 250,000 fewer votes than Obama got (against Mitt Romney in 2012). But Trump only barely exceeded Romney’s total. Given the way Democrats feel about President Trump, I don’t expect to see a similarly one-sided drop-off this year. I think Democrats generally are very positive to Joe Biden, but they are extraordinarily negative to Donald Trump. So in many ways, Trump is the Democrats’ greatest get-out-the-vote argument.”
It is difficult to see how Trump overcomes any surge in turnout for Biden in Wisconsin and other swing states. While the president’s base remains loyal, he does not appear to be picking up significant numbers of new voters who have come on board because they are happy about the way things have gone over the past four years. Instead he is struggling to hold on to those he won over in 2016.
As much as Hubka would liked to have seen her fellow Democrats chose a different presidential candidate, she thinks Biden turned out to be a fortuitous choice at time when significant numbers of voters appear to have retreated from their craving for change and now “just want an end to the crazy”.
“I don’t find a lot of people jumping for joy that it’s Joe Biden but they’re glad that it’s him because they feel like he can win. He can reassure Republicans who want to get away from Trump. They know that he was with Obama and they can look at him and say, ‘At least he can fill this space and do the job and I can sleep at night, not wondering what crazy thing is going to happen next,’” said Hubka.
Still, Americans are acutely aware that this is 2020 and there are more than three weeks to the polls, an eternity in a month that has already seen its share of political drama. Democrats see the president’s attempts to disrupt the election, such as his attacks on postal voting, as an implicit recognition that he is losing and only expect him to get more desperate.
Trump’s calls to mobilise militias to ostensibly monitor the vote, which Democrats interpret as a call to intimidate voters in areas likely to back Biden, alarms Hubka. So does his endorsement of the white nationalist militias during the debate, particularly after the FBI exposed a rightwing militia plot to abduct the governor of Michigan.
It’s all part of a pattern of increasingly erratic behaviour, including Trump berating his own cabinet last week for not prosecuting his political enemies, that has Democrats on edge whatever the polls may say.
I feel a little more confident that Biden can win but we don’t know what’s going to happen tomorrow or the next day Laura Hubka
“I feel a little more confident that Biden can win but we don’t know what’s going to happen tomorrow or the next day,” said Hubka. “I’m fatigued. Every day I wake up worrying about what craziness Trump’s going to bring. I don’t know that I’ve ever felt this uneasy about all sorts of different things that are happening right now. I can’t get a good feel of it. It makes me nauseous, actually, just thinking of what’s he gonna do to win.”
Davis is more relaxed.
“I’m not nervous. I don’t think there’s anything that Trump could do right now that would save him. Even if he has a vaccine before the election. I don’t even think a big stimulus package is going to help either. To be honest, I think the Republicans have even come to terms with it. I just want it to be over with. I really do,” she said.