theguardian--2020-01-11--Donald Trump's Iran claims on Fox News met with skepticism and complaint

Donald Trump is facing mounting criticism after telling Fox News Iran was “ probably ” planning to attack four US embassies before he authorised the drone assassination of the top Iranian general Qassem Suleimani earlier this month .
Chris Murphy , a Democratic member of the Senate foreign relations committee , said : “ Let ’ s be clear – if there was evidence of imminent attacks on four embassies , the administration would have said so at our Wednesday briefing .
They didn ’ t .
So either Fox News gets higher-level briefings than Congress ... or … wait @ @ @ @ @ @ @ imminent threat.
” The assassination of Suleimani was prompted in part by a rocket strike against a US base in Iraq that wounded troops and killed a civilian contractor .
The death of Suleimani was answered by Iranian strikes on US bases in Iraq .
Iran has also admitted shooting down a passenger jet by mistake , killing 176 people .
The Trump administration has said Suleimani was planning imminent attacks on US assets .
But on Wednesday a congressional briefing , given amid attempts to rein the administration in , prompted rare @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Republican from Utah , said it was “ not acceptable for officials within the executive branch of government … to come in and tell us that we can ’ t debate and discuss the appropriateness of military intervention against Iran .
It ’ s un-American .
It ’ s unconstitutional and it ’ s wrong.
” On Saturday , Lee announced he had partnered with the Vermont senator Bernie Sanders , a candidate for the Democratic presidential nomination , to co-sponsor legislation that would freeze funding for military action against Iran without approval @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the Tea Party-backed Republican and the democratic socialist independent said : “ We often disagree on many issues .
But standing up for the constitution is not about partisanship .
The founding fathers were absolutely clear .
They wanted to ensure that our country avoided needless conflict and they understood that presidential war-making would be harmful to our democracy.
” Trump ’ s interview with the Fox News host Laura Ingraham was broadcast on Friday night .
Asked what Iran had been targeting , he revisited remarks to reporters and at a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ We will tell you that probably it was going to be the embassy in Baghdad.
” That embassy was attacked by pro-Iranian groups on New Year ’ s Eve , another event contributing to Trump ’ s authorisation of the strike on Suleimani .
Trump then told Ingraham he could “ reveal that I believe it probably would ’ ve been four embassies ” .
“ [ It ] could have been military bases , ” he said , “ could have been a lot of other things too .
But it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a sudden , he [ Suleimani ] was gone.
” The secretary of state , Mike Pompeo , told reporters on Friday the US “ had specific information on an imminent threat , and those threats included attacks on US embassies period full stop ” .
Pompeo claimed “ American facilities including American embassies , military bases , American facilities throughout the region ” were at risk .
But the Washington Post cited “ a senior administration official and a senior defense official ” who said they “ were only aware of vague @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in Baghdad and that the information did not suggest a fully formed plot .
Neither official said there were threats against multiple embassies ” .
One official told the Post there was concern about a possible attempt to bomb the Baghdad embassy .
Responding to Trump ’ s interview , Murphy said he had “ placed a request … for a briefing on the new intelligence surrounding the imminent attacks on US embassies that the president referred to today , but somehow didn ’ t come up in the full Senate briefing on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ News his “ biggest thing ” was not letting US enemies such as Iran have nuclear weapons .
The president withdrew from the Iran nuclear accord , meant to slow Tehran ’ s progress towards a weapon , in May 2018 .
After the strike on Suleimani , Tehran said it was ending commitments under the deal .
On Saturday the news site Axios reported that national security adviser Robert O ’ Brien said “ the chances of sitting down with the Iranians and getting to a deal have improved significantly ” because @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
On Fox News , Trump was also asked about comments from Democrats including Pete Buttigieg , the former mayor of South Bend , Indiana who is showing strongly in the presidential primary , which implied the US was partly to blame for Iran shooting down the airliner bound for Ukraine .
“ I think it ’ s just lowlife , ” Trump said , calling Buttigieg a “ lousy mayor of a place that is not doing well ” .
Trump said he would be “ OK ” with US troops withdrawing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Iraqi parliament after the Suleimani strike , leading to confusion over US plans before the administration confirmed troops would stay .
He claimed the Iraqi government was saying it wanted US troops out “ publicly ” but “ they don ’ t say that privately ” .
Defending his decision last year to remove US troops from the border between Turkey and Syria , which led to a Turkish incursion against Kurdish forces allied to the US in the fight against Islamic State , Trump insisted it “ turned out to be such @ @ @ @ @ @ @ what happened , ” he said .
“ They ’ ve been fighting over that border for a thousand years .
Why should we do it ?
And then they say ‘ he left troops in Syria ’ .
Do you know what I did ?
I left troops to take the oil .
I took the oil – the only troops are protecting the oil.
” US troops do remain stationed near oilfields in Syria , but “ taking the oil ” , repeatedly advocated by Trump , would be illegal under @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the world since 1945 .
In the aftermath of the Suleimani strike , Trump repeatedly threatened to strike Iranian cultural sites , an act that would also have constituted a war crime .
In the face of international criticism , the president climbed down .

Donald Trump is facing mounting criticism after telling Fox News Iran was “probably” planning to attack four US embassies before he authorised the drone assassination of the top Iranian general Qassem Suleimani earlier this month.
Chris Murphy, a Democratic member of the Senate foreign relations committee, said: “Let’s be clear – if there was evidence of imminent attacks on four embassies, the administration would have said so at our Wednesday briefing. They didn’t. So either Fox News gets higher-level briefings than Congress ... or … wait for it ... there was no such imminent threat.”
The assassination of Suleimani was prompted in part by a rocket strike against a US base in Iraq that wounded troops and killed a civilian contractor. The death of Suleimani was answered by Iranian strikes on US bases in Iraq. Iran has also admitted shooting down a passenger jet by mistake, killing 176 people.
Timeline The buildup to Qassem Suleimani's death Show 28 December 2019 A rocket attack on an Iraqi military base near Kirkuk kills an American contractor and injures US and Iraqi soldiers. The US blames Shia militia group, Kata’ib Hizbullah (KH) 30 December 2019 The US conducts retaliatory airstrikes against five KH bases in Iraq and Syria, saying there had been 11 attacks against Iraqi bases hosting coalition forces in Iraq over the past two months 31 December 2019 Protesters storm the US embassy in Baghdad, trapping diplomats inside while chanting “Death to America” and slogans in support of pro-Iranian militias. At one point they breached the main gate and smashed their way into several reception rooms. The rampage was carried out with the apparent connivance of local Iraqi security forces who allowed protesters inside the highly protected Green Zone 3 January 2020 In a drone strike ordered by US president Donald Trump, the US kills Iranian general Qassem Suleimani while he was being transported from Baghdad airport Was this helpful? Thank you for your feedback.
The Trump administration has said Suleimani was planning imminent attacks on US assets. But on Wednesday a congressional briefing, given amid attempts to rein the administration in, prompted rare bipartisan criticism.
Mike Lee, a Republican from Utah, said it was “not acceptable for officials within the executive branch of government … to come in and tell us that we can’t debate and discuss the appropriateness of military intervention against Iran. It’s un-American. It’s unconstitutional and it’s wrong.”
On Saturday, Lee announced he had partnered with the Vermont senator Bernie Sanders, a candidate for the Democratic presidential nomination, to co-sponsor legislation that would freeze funding for military action against Iran without approval from Congress.
In a joint statement, the Tea Party-backed Republican and the democratic socialist independent said: “We often disagree on many issues. But standing up for the constitution is not about partisanship. The founding fathers were absolutely clear. They wanted to ensure that our country avoided needless conflict and they understood that presidential war-making would be harmful to our democracy.”
Trump’s interview with the Fox News host Laura Ingraham was broadcast on Friday night. Asked what Iran had been targeting, he revisited remarks to reporters and at a rally on Thursday when he said: “We will tell you that probably it was going to be the embassy in Baghdad.”
That embassy was attacked by pro-Iranian groups on New Year’s Eve, another event contributing to Trump’s authorisation of the strike on Suleimani. Trump then told Ingraham he could “reveal that I believe it probably would’ve been four embassies”.
“[It] could have been military bases,” he said, “could have been a lot of other things too. But it was imminent, and then all of a sudden, he [Suleimani] was gone.”
The secretary of state, Mike Pompeo, told reporters on Friday the US “had specific information on an imminent threat, and those threats included attacks on US embassies period full stop”. Pompeo claimed “American facilities including American embassies, military bases, American facilities throughout the region” were at risk.
But the Washington Post cited “a senior administration official and a senior defense official” who said they “were only aware of vague intelligence about a plot against the embassy in Baghdad and that the information did not suggest a fully formed plot. Neither official said there were threats against multiple embassies”.
One official told the Post there was concern about a possible attempt to bomb the Baghdad embassy.
Responding to Trump’s interview, Murphy said he had “placed a request … for a briefing on the new intelligence surrounding the imminent attacks on US embassies that the president referred to today, but somehow didn’t come up in the full Senate briefing on Wednesday”.
Trump also told Fox News his “biggest thing” was not letting US enemies such as Iran have nuclear weapons.
The president withdrew from the Iran nuclear accord, meant to slow Tehran’s progress towards a weapon, in May 2018. After the strike on Suleimani, Tehran said it was ending commitments under the deal.
On Saturday the news site Axios reported that national security adviser Robert O’Brien said “the chances of sitting down with the Iranians and getting to a deal have improved significantly” because Soleimani was “off the battlefield”.
On Fox News, Trump was also asked about comments from Democrats including Pete Buttigieg, the former mayor of South Bend, Indiana who is showing strongly in the presidential primary, which implied the US was partly to blame for Iran shooting down the airliner bound for Ukraine.
“I think it’s just lowlife,” Trump said, calling Buttigieg a “lousy mayor of a place that is not doing well”.
Trump said he would be “OK” with US troops withdrawing from Iraq, as demanded by the Iraqi parliament after the Suleimani strike, leading to confusion over US plans before the administration confirmed troops would stay.
He claimed the Iraqi government was saying it wanted US troops out “publicly” but “they don’t say that privately”.
Defending his decision last year to remove US troops from the border between Turkey and Syria, which led to a Turkish incursion against Kurdish forces allied to the US in the fight against Islamic State, Trump insisted it “turned out to be such a successful move”.
“Look what happened,” he said. “They’ve been fighting over that border for a thousand years. Why should we do it? And then they say ‘he left troops in Syria’. Do you know what I did? I left troops to take the oil. I took the oil – the only troops are protecting the oil.”
US troops do remain stationed near oilfields in Syria, but “taking the oil”, repeatedly advocated by Trump, would be illegal under international law as applied and accepted around the world since 1945.
In the aftermath of the Suleimani strike, Trump repeatedly threatened to strike Iranian cultural sites, an act that would also have constituted a war crime. In the face of international criticism, the president climbed down.


theguardian--2020-01-11--Trump lawyer Michael Cohen says he deserves early release from prison

Michael Cohen , Donald Trump ’ s former personal lawyer , told a judge on Friday he is the victim of a campaign of “ character assassination ” by prosecutors who oppose his time in prison being reduced from three years to one .
In a document filed in Manhattan federal court , Cohen said federal prosecutors were “ using innuendo , conjecture , and inaccurate opinions as a basis for urging the court ’ s denial of the pending motion ” .
He added in his letter to US district judge William H Pauley III that the “ continued @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is not relevant to his request to be released from prison after serving a year and one day .
The US attorney ’ s office in Manhattan “ stubbornly refuses ” to acknowledge the breadth , scope and relevance of more than 170 hours of testimony he gave to nine government agencies , he said .
Nicholas Biase , a spokesman for prosecutors , said the office had no comment .
Cohen , 53 , is housed at a federal prison in Otisville , New York , after pleading guilty in 2018 to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ among other charges .
He began his sentence last May .
Cohen maintains he deserves early release for telling investigators about the president ’ s misdeeds .
In court papers of their own , prosecutors say Cohen has offered no evidence he provided substantial assistance of the kind that warrants a significant reduction in sentence .
And they say congressional testimony does not earn a reduction either .
Cohen abandoned longtime position of loyalty to Trump and met with federal and state prosecutors in New York and with the office of special counsel @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lied to Congress to protect Trump .
Cohen said he feels targeted by the president , who wants to depict him as a convicted liar , and by Republican members of the House oversight committee .
He recalled that Trump frequently asked what role he wanted in his administration before he was offered a job as assistant to the White House counsel .
Cohen said he “ truly wanted ” the position he received .
“ There was no perceived shame to being President Donald J Trump ’ s ‘ personal attorney ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a man who protected Trump and his family ’ s interests for a decade .

Michael Cohen, Donald Trump’s former personal lawyer, told a judge on Friday he is the victim of a campaign of “character assassination” by prosecutors who oppose his time in prison being reduced from three years to one.
In a document filed in Manhattan federal court, Cohen said federal prosecutors were “using innuendo, conjecture, and inaccurate opinions as a basis for urging the court’s denial of the pending motion”.
He added in his letter to US district judge William H Pauley III that the “continued ‘character assassination”’ by prosecutors is not relevant to his request to be released from prison after serving a year and one day.
The US attorney’s office in Manhattan “stubbornly refuses” to acknowledge the breadth, scope and relevance of more than 170 hours of testimony he gave to nine government agencies, he said.
Nicholas Biase, a spokesman for prosecutors, said the office had no comment.
Cohen, 53, is housed at a federal prison in Otisville, New York, after pleading guilty in 2018 to campaign finance violations and lying to Congress among other charges. He began his sentence last May.
Cohen maintains he deserves early release for telling investigators about the president’s misdeeds.
In court papers of their own, prosecutors say Cohen has offered no evidence he provided substantial assistance of the kind that warrants a significant reduction in sentence. And they say congressional testimony does not earn a reduction either.
Cohen abandoned longtime position of loyalty to Trump and met with federal and state prosecutors in New York and with the office of special counsel Robert Mueller, telling them he had lied to Congress to protect Trump.
Cohen said he feels targeted by the president, who wants to depict him as a convicted liar, and by Republican members of the House oversight committee.
He recalled that Trump frequently asked what role he wanted in his administration before he was offered a job as assistant to the White House counsel. Cohen said he “truly wanted” the position he received.
“There was no perceived shame to being President Donald J Trump’s ‘personal attorney’”, he said, especially for a man who protected Trump and his family’s interests for a decade.


theguardian--2020-01-12--Puerto Rico earthquakes are just the latest in a string of shocks for US island

A colourful and boisterous place in normal times , Guánica today presents a ghostly and deserted air , the sea breeze whistling through the ruins of the collapsed buildings that dot its streets .
The signs of life are a few stray cats and dogs and a handful of families furtively piling their belongings into vehicles as they evacuate their homes .
The town sits near the epicentre of the 6.4 earthquake that rocked Puerto Rico on Tuesday – the worse tremor to hit Puerto Rico in a century – which killed at least three people and left thousands homeless @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 6.0 magnitude on Saturday morning , have rocked the island ever since .
“ I ’ ve never experienced anything like this , ” said Edith Muñiz , 55 , a lifelong resident of the town .
“ Many have fled their homes , ” Muñiz said , standing in front of a Presbyterian church where emergency supplies were being collected .
Across the street lay the ruins of a school whose three floors had pancaked flat on one another .
( Luckily , the students were still off on winter break .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ without water and without light.
” The quakes are the latest in a string of shocks for this island of 3.2 million people – a commonwealth of the United States whose residents are US citizens but can not vote in US presidential elections and have no voting representation in the US Congress .
The island is still reeling from the impact of 2017 ’ s Hurricane Maria – which devastated the island and killed at least 3,000 people – and processing protests last summer which forced then-governor Ricardo Rosselló from office .
As @ @ @ @ @ @ @ US government has appeared unfocused and disconnected .
And – as after Maria – local officials have given varying and contradictory information about the island ’ s power grid .
On Satuday , at least 20 % of the island ’ s customers were still without power .
After this latest tragedy , many in Puerto Rico wonder if the powers that lord over them – local or federal – have learned anything from recent history .
“ The root of the problem remains unchanged , ” saids Manuel Natal Albelo , 33 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s House of Representatives who will be running for mayor of the capital San Juan this fall under the banner of the Movimiento Victoria Ciudadana ( MVC ) , an insurgent political party formed shortly before this past summer ’ s protests .
“ It is the corruption of a two-party system that responds exclusively to benefit particular financial interest groups , ” Natal continued .
“ From the policies to the individuals in charge of their implementation , the old political establishment still sacrifices the vast majority of our people to protect @ @ @ @ @ @ @ eventually resigned after a series of profane chats were leaked in which he and close advisors mocked ordinary Puerto Ricans .
His hand-picked successor , Pedro Pierluisi , lasted just five days before the island ’ s supreme court forced him out , citing questionable terms of succession .
Pierluisi was succeeded by Wanda Vázquez , the island ’ s justice secretary .
She claimed no political aspirations herself , but quickly warmed to the role , announcing last month that she would run for a full term in office , in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ( PNP ) , which favours Puerto Rico becoming a US state .
The PNP dominates the island ’ s bicameral legislature , while the opposition Partido Popular Democrático ( PPD ) – which favours a continuation of commonwealth status – maintains a slim majority of the mayor ’ s office .
The parties have dominated Puerto Rico for decades .
Vázquez has enacted as series of populist measures , including streamlining the process for owning firearms ( a questionable initiative in an island with a dire rate of gun crime and femicide @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the legality of cockfighting , in defiance of a US ban .
However , Vázquez has not substantially investigated alleged wrongdoing by some of the participants in the Rosselló chats , including a number of the ex-governor ’ s top aides .
This month , Puerto Rico ’ s Department of Justice called for a special prosecutor to investigate those involved in the chat .
Despite Vázquez ’ s populist touch – she spent a recent night among quake-affected residents of the battered Guánica and the island ’ s National Guard has established @ @ @ @ @ @ @ towns – some now accuse her of continuing the same practices as her predecessor .
“ After the worst earthquake we have ever experienced in modern history , we were told that in 12 to 24 hours we would have our electricity back , only to be told later that it will take more than a year to fix , ” said Mayra Vélez Serrano , a political science professor at the Universidad de Puerto Rico .
“ Vázquez inherited many of the same Rosselló cabinet members and secretaries of key agencies , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ completely incapable of managing the aftermath of Hurricane Maria .
There is very little trust in the government.
” A stream of aid from local non-governmental organizations and ordinary Puerto Ricans has flowed south since Tuesday ’ s initial tremor .
But , as the ground beneath the Puerto Ricans feet still shuddered , Donald Trump – who notoriously went golfing as Maria bore down on the island and then tossed paper towels at desperate islanders during a four-hour visit – has continued to withhold more than $ 18bn in federal funding earmarked @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of a Congressionally-mandated September deadline to account for at least $ 8m of it .
A controversial fiscal oversight board has controlled the island ’ s finances since 2016 , as the bankrupt US commonwealth faces almost $ 18bn of general-obligation bonds and government-guaranteed debt .
But the machinations of any local and federal politicians are a distant drama for those dealing with this latest challenge .
As she and her family moved their belongings out of the Villa Del Caribe caserio ( public housing project ) in the southern city of Ponce @ @ @ @ @ @ @ buildings ’ facades , Yetzabeth Vega López described the night the quake hit .
“ People were screaming , crying , everyone ran because the buildings were moving so violently .
It was horrible , ” she said .
“ We ’ re trying to find another place to live as this place is now not habitable .
In reality , we haven ’ t seen much help from the government , not federal or local .
A lot of people here are sleeping in their cars .
This is very hard .
@

A colourful and boisterous place in normal times, Guánica today presents a ghostly and deserted air, the sea breeze whistling through the ruins of the collapsed buildings that dot its streets.
The signs of life are a few: stray cats and dogs and a handful of families furtively piling their belongings into vehicles as they evacuate their homes.
The town sits near the epicentre of the 6.4 earthquake that rocked Puerto Rico on Tuesday – the worst tremor to hit Puerto Rico in a century – which killed at least three people and left thousands homeless. Large-scale aftershocks, including one of 6.0 magnitude on Saturday morning, have rocked the island ever since.
“I’ve never experienced anything like this,” said Edith Muñiz, 55, a lifelong resident of the town.
“Many have fled their homes,” Muñiz said, standing in front of a Presbyterian church where emergency supplies were being collected. Across the street lay the ruins of a school whose three floors had pancaked flat on one another. (Luckily, the students were still off on winter break.) “We’re living here without water and without light.”
The quakes are the latest in a string of shocks for this island of 3.2 million people – a commonwealth of the United States whose residents are US citizens but cannot vote in US presidential elections and have no voting representation in the US Congress. The island is still reeling from the impact of 2017’s Hurricane Maria – which devastated the island and killed at least 3,000 people – and processing protests last summer which forced the then governor, Ricardo Rosselló, from office.
A public school in Guánica, Puerto Rico, collapsed after a magnitude 6.4 earthquake hit just south of the island on 7 January. Photograph: Eric Rojas/Getty Images
As after Maria, the response of the US government has appeared unfocused and disconnected. And – as after Maria – local officials have given varying and contradictory information about the island’s power grid. On Satuday, at least 20% of the island’s customers were still without power.
After this latest tragedy, many in Puerto Rico wonder if the powers that lord over them – local or federal – have learned anything from recent history.
“The root of the problem remains unchanged,” saids Manuel Natal Albelo, 33, a representative in the commonwealth’s House of Representatives who will be running for mayor of the capital San Juan this fall under the banner of the Movimiento Victoria Ciudadana (MVC), an insurgent political party formed shortly before this past summer’s protests.
“It is the corruption of a two-party system that responds exclusively to benefit particular financial interest groups,” Natal continued. “From the policies to the individuals in charge of their implementation, the old political establishment still sacrifices the vast majority of our people to protect the privileges of a few.”
Rosselló eventually resigned after a series of profane chats were leaked in which he and close advisers mocked ordinary Puerto Ricans. His hand-picked successor, Pedro Pierluisi, lasted just five days before the island’s supreme court forced him out, citing questionable terms of succession.
Pierluisi was succeeded by Wanda Vázquez, the island’s justice secretary. She claimed no political aspirations herself, but quickly warmed to the role, announcing last month that she would run for a full term in office, in the primaries of the ruling Partido Nuevo Progresista (PNP), which favours Puerto Rico becoming a US state.
The PNP dominates the island’s bicameral legislature, while the opposition Partido Popular Democrático (PPD) – which favours a continuation of commonwealth status – maintains a slim majority of the mayor’s office. The parties have dominated Puerto Rico for decades.
Vázquez has enacted as series of populist measures, including streamlining the process for owning firearms (a questionable initiative in an island with a dire rate of gun crime and femicide) and signing a bill that affirmed the legality of cockfighting, in defiance of a US ban.
Wanda Vazquez, the governor of Puerto Rico, gives a news conference during an inspection of the Costa Sur power plant in Puerto Rico. Photograph: Marco Bello/Reuters
However, Vázquez has not substantially investigated alleged wrongdoing by some of the participants in the Rosselló chats, including a number of the ex-governor’s top aides. This month, Puerto Rico’s justice department called for a special prosecutor to investigate those involved in the chat.
Despite Vázquez’s populist touch – she spent a recent night among quake-affected residents of the battered Guánica and the island’s national guard has established “tent cities” in five different towns – some now accuse her of continuing the same practices as her predecessor.
“After the worst earthquake we have ever experienced in modern history, we were told that in 12 to 24 hours we would have our electricity back, only to be told later that it will take more than a year to fix,” said Mayra Vélez Serrano, a political science professor at the Universidad de Puerto Rico. “Vázquez inherited many of the same Rosselló cabinet members and secretaries of key agencies, all of whom showed themselves to be completely incapable of managing the aftermath of Hurricane Maria. There is very little trust in the government.”
A stream of aid from local non-governmental organizations and ordinary Puerto Ricans has flowed south since Tuesday’s initial tremor.
But, as the ground beneath the Puerto Ricans feet still shuddered, Donald Trump – who notoriously went golfing as Maria bore down on the island and then tossed paper towels at desperate islanders during a four-hour visit – has continued to withhold more than $18bn in federal funding earmarked by Congress. This was in defiance of a congressionally mandated September deadline to account for at least $8m of it. A controversial fiscal oversight board has controlled the island’s finances since 2016, as the bankrupt US commonwealth faces almost $18bn of general-obligation bonds and government-guaranteed debt.
But the machinations of any local and federal politicians are a distant drama for those dealing with this latest challenge.
As she and her family moved their belongings out of the Villa Del Caribe caserio (public housing project) in the southern city of Ponce, where frightening cracks crept up the buildings’ facades, Yetzabeth Vega López described the night the quake hit.
“People were screaming, crying, everyone ran because the buildings were moving so violently. It was horrible,” she said. “We’re trying to find another place to live as this place is now not habitable. In reality, we haven’t seen much help from the government, not federal or local. A lot of people here are sleeping in their cars. This is very hard.”


theguardian--2020-01-12--An electoral college edge? How Trump could again lose the popular vote and win

Donald Trump has the dubious distinction of being the only US president since Gallup began tracking presidential approval ratings in 1938 to have been permanently “ under water ” – he has never been viewed favorably by half or more of the American electorate .
Trump should , by historical precedent , be looking at a thumping defeat in the 2020 presidential election .
But political scientists and strategists have told the Guardian that he could be thrown a re-election lifeline thanks to the country ’ s quirky approach to democracy in the form of the electoral college .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the 3 November election could see Trump being outgunned by his Democratic challenger in the popular vote – the total number of votes cast nationwide – by twice the amount that Hillary Clinton surpassed him in 2016 , yet still return to the White House for a second term .
“ It is entirely possible that in 2020 we will once again see Republicans losing the popular vote and winning the electoral college , this time potentially by even greater margins , ” he said .
The electoral college was the compromise system @ @ @ @ @ @ @ founding fathers .
Its aim was to balance the direct votes of qualified citizens with a vote in Congress .
The result is that the occupant of the Oval Office is not elected directly by the American people but indirectly by state-based “ electors ” .
There are 538 electors in total , which means that to win the White House the successful candidate must attract the votes of 270 of them .
In most election cycles the electoral college results have been in sync with the popular vote .
But in 2016 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the electoral college Trump won handsomely – by 306 electoral votes to Clinton ’ s 232 .
But in the popular vote Clinton was the clear winner with 65.9m votes to Trump ’ s 63.0m votes – a difference of two percentage points ( 48 % to 46 % ) .
By Sabato ’ s reckoning , that rift between the electoral college and the popular vote could be stretched further in November and see Trump win again .
“ The 2020 Democratic nominee could easily double Clinton ’ s lead in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ four percentage points , and still lose , depending on where those votes came from , ” Sabato said .
The fear that the electoral college could give Trump four more years to transform America in his image has rippled through the Democrats competing to challenge him in the election .
Several of the Democratic candidates have called for overhaul of the current system , including Elizabeth Warren , Bernie Sanders and Pete Buttigieg .
The solution they propose in common is quite simple – replace the convoluted electoral college with a direct @ @ @ @ @ @ @ presidency to whichever candidate garners most votes across the country .
That may look straightforward on paper , but the practicalities of switching to a new system are daunting .
To change would require an amendment to the US constitution which is much easier said than done .
Not only would both the House and Senate in Congress need to approve the change by a two-thirds majority , but three-quarters of the individual state assemblies would have to ratify it ( 38 out of 50 states ) .
“ A constitutional amendment is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Alan Abramowitz , professor of political science at Emory University .
“ There ’ s no way to get two-thirds of the House and the Senate to support an amendment of any kind.
” Advocates of reform have devised clever ways around this roadblock that would essentially keep the electoral college in place but shift its method of counting to the popular vote without requiring a constitutional amendment .
The most prominent of these attempts is the National Vote Interstate Compact , which seeks to persuade individual states to sign up to a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ would guarantee the presidency to the candidate who garners the most popular votes .
The compact would kick in only when enough states had joined to collectively pass the 270 electoral college votes needed to secure the presidency .
Once that line had been crossed , the participating states would deliver the White House to the winner of the popular vote .
The problem with this inventive scheme is that a mountain has yet to be climbed before the magic line of 270 is passed .
So far the compact has been enacted @ @ @ @ @ @ @ DC , which between them muster only 196 electoral votes – a deficit of 74 .
None of those jurisdictions are Republican-controlled , which is unsurprising given the electoral college has tended to be to the advantage of Republican presidential candidates .
The last time the winner of a US presidential election lost the popular vote the discrepancy also helped a Republican – George W Bush , who in 2000 received 544,000 fewer votes than his vanquished Democratic rival , Al Gore .
You then have to go back to 1888 to find @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the anomaly of 2016 , 2000 and 1888 that some experts think that a repeat “ misfire ” , as the disparity is known , is unlikely in November .
Abramowitz has studied all 11 presidential elections since the end of the second world war in which an incumbent was running for re-election – the last being Barack Obama in 2012 – and noted there were no misfires .
“ If the Trump campaign is counting on the electoral college gifting them the election again , that ’ s a very high-risk strategy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ other hand , as the demography of America changes , the distorting influence of the electoral college appears to be growing .
The US population is becoming more diverse , and more heavily concentrated in major cities that lean strongly Democratic .
That in turn is creating a tendency for Democratic votes to be “ wasted ” – with vastly more being cast in states like California , New York and Illinois than are needed to win the electoral votes .
By contrast , Republican voters – who tend to be less diverse @ @ @ @ @ @ @ low-density rural states in a way that is more efficient under the electoral college .
David Frum , George W Bush ’ s former speechwriter , said the electoral college is just one of several factors that he calls “ anti-majoritarian influences ” in play in the US today .
“ It is a pervasive fact up and down , from local elections to the presidency , that electoral outcomes track voter intent poorly , ” he said .
Other factors include low levels of voter registration , hurdles to voting and the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that apportions Wyoming ’ s population of 579,000 the same number of senators ( two ) as California ’ s 40 million .
“ The anti-majoritarian features favor real America over urban America , light-populated over heavily-populated states , ” Frum said .
“ That ’ s an issue that goes back deep into American history , but Trump is its latest benefactor.
” He added : “ Trump is an unpopular president .
In a purely majoritarian system the election would probably not even be that close .
But run his support @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , sure , it ’ s possible he could win .
”

Donald Trump has the dubious distinction of being the only US president since Gallup began tracking presidential approval ratings in 1938 to have been permanently “under water” – he has never been viewed favorably by half or more of the American electorate.
Trump should, by historical precedent, be looking at a thumping defeat in the 2020 presidential election. But political scientists and strategists have told the Guardian that he could be thrown a re-election lifeline thanks to the country’s quirky approach to democracy in the form of the electoral college.
The political analyst Larry Sabato has calculated that the 3 November election could see Trump being outgunned by his Democratic challenger in the popular vote – the total number of votes cast nationwide – by twice the amount that Hillary Clinton surpassed him in 2016, yet still return to the White House for a second term.
“It is entirely possible that in 2020 we will once again see Republicans losing the popular vote and winning the electoral college, this time potentially by even greater margins,” he said.
The electoral college was the compromise system for choosing US presidents devised by the founding fathers. Its aim was to balance the direct votes of qualified citizens with a vote in Congress.
The result is that the occupant of the Oval Office is not elected directly by the American people but indirectly by state-based “electors”. There are 538 electors in total, which means that to win the White House the successful candidate must attract the votes of 270 of them.
In most election cycles the electoral college results have been in sync with the popular vote. But in 2016 a dramatic gulf opened up.
In the electoral college Trump won handsomely – by 306 electoral votes to Clinton’s 232. But in the popular vote Clinton was the clear winner with 65.9m votes to Trump’s 63.0m votes – a difference of two percentage points (48% to 46%).
By Sabato’s reckoning, that rift between the electoral college and the popular vote could be stretched further in November and see Trump win again. “The 2020 Democratic nominee could easily double Clinton’s lead in the popular vote to at least three or four percentage points, and still lose, depending on where those votes came from,” Sabato said.
Donald Trump arrives to speak during an event in Hershey, Pennsylvania, on 15 December 2016 following his election win. Photograph: Lucas Jackson/Reuters
The fear that the electoral college could give Trump four more years to transform America in his image has rippled through the Democrats competing to challenge him in the election. Several of the Democratic candidates have called for overhaul of the current system, including Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders and Pete Buttigieg.
The solution they propose in common is quite simple – replace the convoluted electoral college with a direct national popular vote that would hand the presidency to whichever candidate garners most votes across the country. That may look straightforward on paper, but the practicalities of switching to a new system are daunting.
To change would require an amendment to the US constitution which is much easier said than done. Not only would both the House and Senate in Congress need to approve the change by a two-thirds majority, but three-quarters of the individual state assemblies would have to ratify it (38 out of 50 states) .
“A constitutional amendment is out of the question,” said Alan Abramowitz, professor of political science at Emory University. “There’s no way to get two-thirds of the House and the Senate to support an amendment of any kind.”
The Democratic nominee could easily double Clinton’s lead in the popular vote and still lose Larry Sabato
Advocates of reform have devised clever ways around this roadblock that would essentially keep the electoral college in place but shift its method of counting to the popular vote without requiring a constitutional amendment. The most prominent of these attempts is the National Vote Interstate Compact, which seeks to persuade individual states to sign up to a collective agreement – the compact – which would guarantee the presidency to the candidate who garners the most popular votes.
The compact would kick in only when enough states had joined to collectively pass the 270 electoral college votes needed to secure the presidency. Once that line had been crossed, the participating states would deliver the White House to the winner of the popular vote.
The problem with this inventive scheme is that a mountain has yet to be climbed before the magic line of 270 is passed. So far the compact has been enacted into law in 15 states and Washington DC, which between them muster only 196 electoral votes – a deficit of 74.
None of those jurisdictions are Republican-controlled, which is unsurprising given the electoral college has tended to be to the advantage of Republican presidential candidates.
The last time the winner of a US presidential election lost the popular vote the discrepancy also helped a Republican – George W Bush, who in 2000 received 544,000 fewer votes than his vanquished Democratic rival ,Al Gore. You then have to go back to 1888 to find the phenomenon reoccurring.
So rare was the anomaly of 2016, 2000 and 1888 that some experts think that a repeat “misfire”, as the disparity is known, is unlikely in November. Abramowitz has studied all 11 presidential elections since the end of the second world war in which an incumbent was running for re-election – the last being Barack Obama in 2012 – and noted there were no misfires.
“If the Trump campaign is counting on the electoral college gifting them the election again, that’s a very high-risk strategy,” he said.
On the other hand, as the demography of America changes, the distorting influence of the electoral college appears to be growing. The US population is becoming more diverse, and more heavily concentrated in major cities that lean strongly Democratic.
That in turn is creating a tendency for Democratic votes to be “wasted” – with vastly more being cast in states like California, New York and Illinois than are needed to win the electoral votes.
By contrast, Republican voters – who tend to be less diverse – are spread out more sparsely in low-density rural states in a way that is more efficient under the electoral college.
David Frum, George W Bush’s former speechwriter, said the electoral college is just one of several factors that he calls “anti-majoritarian influences” in play in the US today. “It is a pervasive fact up and down, from local elections to the presidency, that electoral outcomes track voter intent poorly,” he said.
Other factors include low levels of voter registration, hurdles to voting and the skewed voting system for the US Senate that apportions Wyoming’s population of 579,000 the same number of senators (two) as California’s 40 million.
“The anti-majoritarian features favor rural America over urban America, light-populated over heavily-populated states,” Frum said. “That’s an issue that goes back deep into American history, but Trump is its latest benefactor.”
He added: “Trump is an unpopular president. In a purely majoritarian system the election would probably not even be that close. But run his support through the American electoral system and yes, sure, it’s possible he could win.”


theguardian--2020-01-12--American Oligarchs review: Trump, Kushner and the melding of money and power

Andrea Bernstein delivers the goods on the bad business which propelled two New York families to Washington America ’ s cold civil war rages , impeachment inches ahead and Donald Trump remains a focal point of conflict .
As for Jared Kushner , the president ’ s son-in-law , he is markedly more unpopular than his wife , her father or her gun-toting brother .
Donald Trump Jr and Ivanka Trump are rated among the top Republican contenders for 2024 .
And yet with no sign of Steve Bannon ’ s imminent return , Charlie Kushner ’ s son will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ re-election effort .
For the elder Kushner it must be a highly satisfying moment .
Little more than a decade ago , he was doing time in federal prison for “ one of the most loathsome , disgusting crimes ” a US attorney named Chris Christie had ever prosecuted .
Into the scrum jumps Andrea Bernstein , with a meticulous deep dive into all things Trump and Kushner .
A veteran investigative reporter with WNYC radio , NPR ’ s New York affiliate , Bernstein brings a keen eye for financial flimflam and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Under the subtitle The Kushners , the Trumps , and the Marriage of Money and Power , the author seeks to place the ascent of both families within the context of increased social stratification and growing inequality .
Not surprisingly , the book is laden with original reporting and primary sources .
Over the past three years , Bernstein has broken stories concerning Paul Manafort and money laundering , Michael Cohen ’ s business dealings and Rudy Giuliani ’ s overseas adventures .
She has also shed light on how Ivanka and Don @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , a residential hotel in lower Manhattan that screamed scam .
Like Trump University , there was far less to the project than touted or met the eye .
Fittingly , American Oligarchs is peppered with references to Wayne Barrett , the late and legendary Village Voice reporter who penned definitive biographies of Trump and Giuliani .
Back in the day , Barrett uncovered Giuliani ’ s father ’ s sojourn at the Sing Sing correctional institution in upstate New York , for armed robbery .
Most notably , American Oligarchs lays bare @ @ @ @ @ @ @ entry into the US .
According to Bernstein , members of the Kushner family appear to have committed immigration fraud .
Bernstein exhumes the oral history Rae Kushner , Jared ’ s paternal grandmother , left with the Hebrew Immigrant Aid Society ( Hias ) , a non-government organization that prides itself on “ helping refugees rebuild their lives in safety and dignity ” and which was an object of obsession for the Pittsburgh synagogue gunman .
Ironically , Jared Kushner is now tasked with building Trump ’ s long-promised wall along the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ almost all of the 100 miles of new fencing completed on Trump ’ s watch is simply “ replacement barrier ” , according to US Customs and Border Protection , a reality at odds with the reputation of the Trumps and the Kushners for building .
As spelled out in American Oligarchs , Yossel Berkowitz , Rae ’ s husband and Jared ’ s paternal grandfather , made his wife ’ s last name his own and sought to pass himself off as the son of his father-in-law .
Apparently , immigration officials @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sons than of sons-in-law .
Bernstein writes of how Yossel Berkowitz morphed into Joseph Kushner , how his son Charles would be “ called Charles Kushner , not Charles Berkowitz , and his grandson was Jared Kushner , not Jared Berkowitz ” .
For good measure , Bernstein notes that “ Jared ’ s wife ’ s married name would be Ivanka Kushner , not Ivanka Berkowitz ” .
Right on cue , there is a tweet for the occasion .
Per Trump in 2013 : “ If Jon Stewart is so above @ @ @ @ @ @ @ why did he change his name from Jonathan Leibowitz ?
As it also happens , Melania Trump later obtained a green card after touting herself as a model of “ extraordinary ability ” , then sponsored her Slovenian parents for US citizenship .
As Faye Dunaway and Jack Nicholson remind us in Chinatown , family relationships can get complicated .
Indeed , in a June 2019 interview for Axios on HBO , Jonathan Swan pressed Jared on how he justified the administration ’ s restrictions on refugee admissions given his own family ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ It doesn ’ t make a difference one way or the other.
” He added : “ In the scheme of the magnitude of the problem we have , I think that we ’ re doing our best to try to make as much impact to allow refugees to be able to go back to their places.
” So much for introspection .
At times , Bernstein ’ s sentiments color her indictment .
While she excoriates Jared , the fact is the US immigrant population is nearing a record high , almost @ @ @ @ @ @ @ people living in the US were born elsewhere ; and the fertility rate is at a 40-year low .
Like it or not , immigration remains a priority among Republicans .
Said differently , as the US senators Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders argue for decriminalizing illegal border crossings , it is a safe bet the anxieties and resentments that powered Trump ’ s electoral college victory will remain potent through November .
Bernstein also does justice to Trump ’ s investments , his brushes with the law and the near-prosecution of his @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Cyrus Vance Jr. On that score , American Oligarchs picks up where Bernstein ’ s earlier reporting left off .
In October 2017 , Bernstein and others wrote in the New Yorker of how Trump deployed Marc Kasowitz , his lawyer , to squelch an investigation into his children ’ s roles in purportedly misrepresenting the financial status of Trump Soho .
Also spearheading that ill-fated business endeavor were Felix Sater , a convicted felon , and Tevfik Arif , a Kazakh-born real estate developer who spent 17 years working in the Soviet @ @ @ @ @ @ @ upon a previously reported incriminating email chain involving the Trump children .
According to one interviewee , there was “ no doubt ” they had “ approved , knew of , agreed to , and intentionally inflated the numbers to make more sales ” .
Said another : “ It couldn ’ t have been more clear they lied about the sales and knew they were lying.
” Still , the Trumps and the Kushners won their bets with history .
Both clans are sitting on top of the world – as Bernstein @ @ @ @ @ @ @

America’s cold civil war rages, impeachment inches ahead and Donald Trump remains a focal point of conflict. As for Jared Kushner, the president’s son-in-law, he is markedly more unpopular than his wife, her father or her gun-toting brother. Donald Trump Jr and Ivanka Trump are rated among the top Republican contenders for 2024.
And yet with no sign of Steve Bannon’s imminent return, Charlie Kushner’s son will be calling the shots in the Trump re-election effort. For the elder Kushner it must be a highly satisfying moment. Little more than a decade ago, he was doing time in federal prison for “one of the most loathsome, disgusting crimes” a US attorney named Chris Christie had ever prosecuted.
Into the scrum jumps Andrea Bernstein, with a meticulous deep dive into all things Trump and Kushner. A veteran investigative reporter with WNYC radio, NPR’s New York affiliate, Bernstein brings a keen eye for financial flimflam and the tectonics that buffet American politics.
Under the subtitle The Kushners, the Trumps, and the Marriage of Money and Power, the author seeks to place the ascent of both families within the context of increased social stratification and growing inequality. Not surprisingly, the book is laden with original reporting and primary sources.
Over the past three years, Bernstein has broken stories concerning Paul Manafort and money laundering, Michael Cohen’s business dealings and Rudy Giuliani’s overseas adventures. She has also shed light on how Ivanka and Don Jr escaped prosecution after peddling Trump Soho, a residential hotel in lower Manhattan that screamed scam. Like Trump University, there was far less to the project than touted or met the eye.
Fittingly, American Oligarchs is peppered with references to Wayne Barrett, the late and legendary Village Voice reporter who penned definitive biographies of Trump and Giuliani. Back in the day, Barrett uncovered Giuliani’s father’s sojourn at the Sing Sing correctional institution in upstate New York, for armed robbery.
Most notably, American Oligarchs lays bare the circumstances surrounding the Kushners’ post-Holocaust entry into the US. According to Bernstein, members of the Kushner family appear to have committed immigration fraud.
Bernstein exhumes the oral history Rae Kushner, Jared’s paternal grandmother, left with the Hebrew Immigrant Aid Society (Hias), a non-government organization that prides itself on “helping refugees rebuild their lives in safety and dignity” and which was an object of obsession for the Pittsburgh synagogue gunman.
Ironically, Jared Kushner is now tasked with building Trump’s long-promised wall along the US-Mexico border. For the record, almost all of the 100 miles of new fencing completed on Trump’s watch is simply “replacement barrier”, according to US Customs and Border Protection, a reality at odds with the reputation of the Trumps and the Kushners for building.
As spelled out in American Oligarchs, Yossel Berkowitz, Rae’s husband and Jared’s paternal grandfather, made his wife’s last name his own and sought to pass himself off as the son of his father-in-law. Apparently, immigration officials took a kinder view of fathers and sons than of sons-in-law.
Bernstein writes of how Yossel Berkowitz morphed into Joseph Kushner, how his son Charles would be “called Charles Kushner, not Charles Berkowitz, and his grandson was Jared Kushner, not Jared Berkowitz”. For good measure, Bernstein notes that “Jared’s wife’s married name would be Ivanka Kushner, not Ivanka Berkowitz”.
Right on cue, there is a tweet for the occasion. Per Trump in 2013: “If Jon Stewart is so above it all [and] legit, why did he change his name from Jonathan Leibowitz?
As it also happens, Melania Trump later obtained a green card after touting herself as a model of “extraordinary ability”, then sponsored her Slovenian parents for US citizenship. As Faye Dunaway and Jack Nicholson remind us in Chinatown, family relationships can get complicated.
Indeed, in a June 2019 interview for Axios on HBO, Jonathan Swan pressed Jared on how he justified the administration’s restrictions on refugee admissions given his own family’s experience. He responded: “It doesn’t make a difference one way or the other.”
He added: “In the scheme of the magnitude of the problem we have, I think that we’re doing our best to try to make as much impact to allow refugees to be able to go back to their places.” So much for introspection.
At times, Bernstein’s sentiments color her indictment. While she excoriates Jared, the fact is the US immigrant population is nearing a record high, almost 14%; more than 44 million people living in the US were born elsewhere; and the fertility rate is at a 40-year low.
Like it or not, immigration remains a priority among Republicans. Said differently, as the US senators Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders argue for decriminalizing illegal border crossings, it is a safe bet the anxieties and resentments that powered Trump’s electoral college victory will remain potent through November.
Trump Soho, seen in 2010. Photograph: Jessica Rinaldi / Reuters/Reuters
Bernstein also does justice to Trump’s investments, his brushes with the law and the near-prosecution of his children by the Manhattan district attorney, Cyrus Vance Jr. On that score, American Oligarchs picks up where Bernstein’s earlier reporting left off.
In October 2017, Bernstein and others wrote in the New Yorker of how Trump deployed Marc Kasowitz, his lawyer, to squelch an investigation into his children’s roles in purportedly misrepresenting the financial status of Trump Soho.
Also spearheading that ill-fated business endeavor were Felix Sater, a convicted felon, and Tevfik Arif, a Kazakh-born real estate developer who spent 17 years working in the Soviet ministry of commerce.
American Oligarchs builds upon a previously reported incriminating email chain involving the Trump children. According to one interviewee, there was “no doubt” they had “approved, knew of, agreed to, and intentionally inflated the numbers to make more sales”.
Said another: “It couldn’t have been more clear they lied about the sales and knew they were lying.”
Still, the Trumps and the Kushners won their bets with history. Both clans are sitting on top of the world – as Bernstein does her best to remind us.


theguardian--2020-01-12--Billionaire Tom Steyer defends place in Iowa Democratic debate

Tom Steyer , the billionaire hedge funder , has claimed picking a nominee to face Donald Trump in November is “ more about judgment than experience ” .
Steyer this week became the sixth qualifier for the seventh Democratic presidential debate , in Des Moines on Tuesday , after he met polling and donor-based marks set by the Democratic National Committee .
He is way down the field in Iowa , the first state to vote , but polls in South Carolina and Nevada , where he has spent heavily on ads that depict him as an “ outsider ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ him over the top .
Steyer will line up against former senator and vice-president Joe Biden ; senators Bernie Sanders , Elizabeth Warren and Amy Klobuchar ; and Pete Buttigieg , formerly mayor of South Bend , Indiana .
None of the other candidates , among them New Jersey senator Cory Booker , tech entrepreneur Andrew Yang and another billionaire , former New York mayor Michael Bloomberg , will be present .
Steyer ’ s success has prompted pointed remarks from analysts and other candidates .
Warren said recently she did not “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sale ” .
Others have pointed to an all-white debate lineup in the absence of Booker , the only African American left in the race , and what that says for a party committed to recognising diversity .
Asked what qualified him to seek the White House , Steyer told CNN ’ s State of the Union : “ I did business for over 30 years working and traveling around the world , meeting with governments , talking to the heads of huge corporations , and understanding actually what drives America ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with other countries , and what makes that trade and relationship succeed.
” He also said the person who “ did the best job in figuring out American foreign policy and military policy ” over the last two decades was “ a state senator from Illinois with absolutely no military or international experience named Barack Obama , who said , against the advice of everybody who was an insider in Washington DC , that the Iraq war was a mistake ” .
Amid fierce controversy over Trump ’ s aggression towards Iran , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ me that what we really need is more conventional DC thinking about our international policy , our foreign policy , and our military policy , I would actually suggest to you that maybe this is more about judgment than experience.
” Steyer has a financial advantage over most other candidates .
Many have criticised him , and Bloomberg , for seeking to “ buy ” the nomination , in order to face another billionaire at the polls .
Stayer made his fortune running Farallon Capital , out of San Francisco , but has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ giving money philanthropically and pursuing policy priorities including accessible banking and climate activism .
“ I think that the thing that has put me on this stage , ” he told CNN , “ is message .
I have a very simple message , which is , the government is broken .
It ’ s been bought by corporations .
I spent 10 years as an outsider putting together coalitions of American citizens to fight and beat those corporations .
“ I ’ m the only person in this race who will say @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is climate .
And I will attack it from the … very first day from the standpoint of environmental justice , and I can take on Mr Trump on the economy in a way that nobody else can , because I built a business from scratch , and I understand job creation and prosperity and growth , as well as economic justice.
” The Nevada caucuses are on 22 February and South Carolina holds its primary seven days later .
Steyer ’ s concentration on the two states has had national benefits : @ @ @ @ @ @ @ showed him second , if distantly , to Biden among black voters , a key bloc in South Carolina .
Other candidates , with less to spend , have been busy in Iowa and New Hampshire , which vote on 3 and 11 February respectively .
Challenged over figures that show 91 % of political advertising so far in South Carolina and 97 % in Nevada has been from his campaign , Steyer insisted he had “ 82 organisers on the ground in South Carolina ” and was “ actually a grassroots person @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , ” he said .
“ There ’ s someone who didn ’ t endorse me who ’ s a politician in South Carolina who said , ‘ Steyer came down here .
He rolled up his sleeves .
He went out .
He listened to people .
He sat across the table .
He worked.
’ “ I have been a grassroots organiser , as you know , for 10 years .
And that ’ s exactly what I ’ m doing in these early primary states .
I ’ m going @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
I spend all my time in the kinds of meetings that I love , which is taking questions and asking questions and listening and learning .
”

Tom Steyer, the billionaire hedge funder, has claimed picking a nominee to face Donald Trump in November is “more about judgment than experience”.
Steyer this week became the sixth qualifier for the seventh Democratic presidential debate, in Des Moines on Tuesday, after he met polling and donor-based marks set by the Democratic National Committee.
He is way down the field in Iowa, the first state to vote, but polls in South Carolina and Nevada, where he has spent heavily on ads that depict him as an “outsider” ready to take on Trump, put him over the top.
Steyer will line up against former senator and vice-president Joe Biden; senators Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren and Amy Klobuchar; and Pete Buttigieg, formerly mayor of South Bend, Indiana.
None of the other candidates, among them New Jersey senator Cory Booker, tech entrepreneur Andrew Yang and another billionaire, former New York mayor Michael Bloomberg, will be present.
Steyer’s success has prompted pointed remarks from analysts and other candidates. Warren said recently she did not “believe that elections ought to be for sale”. Others have pointed to an all-white debate lineup in the absence of Booker, the only African American left in the race, and what that says for a party committed to recognising diversity.
Asked what qualified him to seek the White House, Steyer told CNN’s State of the Union: “I did business for over 30 years working and traveling around the world, meeting with governments, talking to the heads of huge corporations, and understanding actually what drives America’s business around the world and our relationships with other countries, and what makes that trade and relationship succeed.”
He also said the person who “did the best job in figuring out American foreign policy and military policy” over the last two decades was “a state senator from Illinois with absolutely no military or international experience named Barack Obama, who said, against the advice of everybody who was an insider in Washington DC, that the Iraq war was a mistake”.
Amid fierce controversy over Trump’s aggression towards Iran, Steyer added: “When you tell me that what we really need is more conventional DC thinking about our international policy, our foreign policy and our military policy, I would actually suggest to you that maybe this is more about judgment than experience.”
Steyer has a financial advantage over most other candidates. Many have criticised him, and Bloomberg, for seeking to “buy” the nomination, in order to face another billionaire at the polls.
Stayer made his fortune running Farallon Capital, out of San Francisco, but has spent the last 10 years or so giving money philanthropically and pursuing policy priorities including accessible banking and climate activism.
“I think that the thing that has put me on this stage,” he told CNN, “is message. I have a very simple message, which is, the government is broken. It’s been bought by corporations. I spent 10 years as an outsider putting together coalitions of American citizens to fight and beat those corporations.
“I’m the only person in this race who will say that his or her No 1 priority is climate. And I will attack it from the … very first day from the standpoint of environmental justice, and I can take on Mr Trump on the economy in a way that nobody else can, because I built a business from scratch, and I understand job creation and prosperity and growth, as well as economic justice.”
The Nevada caucuses are on 22 February and South Carolina holds its primary seven days later. Steyer’s concentration on the two states has had national benefits: on Saturday a Washington Poll post poll showed him second, if distantly, to Biden among black voters, a key bloc in South Carolina.
Other candidates, with less to spend, have been busy in Iowa and New Hampshire, which vote on 3 and 11 February respectively. Challenged over figures that show 91% of political advertising so far in South Carolina and 97% in Nevada has been from his campaign, Steyer insisted he had “82 organisers on the ground in South Carolina” and was “actually a grassroots person”.
“I have been there,” he said. “There’s someone who didn’t endorse me who’s a politician in South Carolina who said, ‘Steyer came down here. He rolled up his sleeves. He went out. He listened to people. He sat across the table. He worked.’
“I have been a grassroots organiser, as you know, for 10 years. And that’s exactly what I’m doing in these early primary states. I’m going. I’m listening to people. I spend all my time in the kinds of meetings that I love, which is taking questions and asking questions and listening and learning.”


theguardian--2020-01-12--'It means you're going to lose': Bernie Sanders answers Trump on rise in polls

Bernie Sanders had a curt response for Donald Trump on Sunday , after the president noted the Vermont senator ’ s strong showing in the Democratic primary race and asked : “ So what does this all mean ?
” The 78-year-old democratic socialist has rebounded from a heart attack last year , climbing polls of the Democratic field as the Iowa caucuses approach .
In the realclearpolitics.com average for that state , which kicks off the primary on 3 February , Sanders leads former South Bend , Indiana , mayor Pete Buttigieg by 21.3 % to 21 % .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ for New Hampshire , second to vote on 11 February , he leads former vice-president Joe Biden by 21.5 % to 18.8 % .
Biden leads the national average by nine points and had a boost in a Washington Post poll of African American voters released on Saturday , which put him 28 points ahead of Sanders nationally with that key voting bloc .
Changing tack after a screed of complaint about his looming impeachment trial , Trump tweeted on Sunday : “ Wow !
Crazy Bernie Sanders is surging in the polls @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the Do Nothing Party .
So what does this all mean ?
Stay tuned !
” In keeping his reply short and choosing not to tune into the abusive nickname the president has given him , Sanders had a little more success than House speaker Nancy Pelosi , who Trump earlier called “ Crazy Nancy ” .
Pelosi told ABC : “ It ’ s Sunday morning .
I ’ d like to talk about some more pleasant subjects than the erratic nature of this president ... but he has to know @ @ @ @ @ @ @ boost .
“ I don ’ t like to spend too much time on his crazy tweets , because everything he says is a projection .
When he calls someone crazy , he knows that he is.
” If Trump ’ s tweet about Sanders was a projection of his fear of defeat in November , it may be that the president ’ s campaign team do not share it .
Speaking to the Guardian this weekend , Republican strategist turned Trump critic Rick Wilson said Sanders was the GOP ’ s “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ said , was “ the easiest person in the world to turn into the comic opera villain Republicans love to hate , the Castro sympathiser , the socialist , the Marxist , the guy who wants to put the aristos in the tumbril as they cart them off to the guillotine ” .
Wilson also compared Sanders to Jeremy Corbyn , the British Labour party leader who lost a general election in December to Boris Johnson , “ a very unlikeable PM [ who ] was able to convince a lot of Brits @ @ @ @ @ @ @ risk.
” Sanders and his supporters show little sign of such concern .
On Saturday , at slightly greater length , the senator tweeted : “ Recently , our campaign has been the target of attacks from Trump and the Republican party – because they are catching on that our campaign is THE campaign that can and will defeat them.
” Realclearpolitics.com also runs polling averages matching Democrats with Trump in notional general elections .
On Sunday , it gave Sanders victory by 2.6 points , 47.8 % to 45.2 % .
In @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by 4.5 points while Trump nudges out Warren by 0.2 % and Buttigieg by a little over a point .

Bernie Sanders had a curt response for Donald Trump on Sunday, after the president noted the Vermont senator’s strong showing in the Democratic primary race and asked: “So what does this all mean?”
“It means you’re going to lose,” Sanders tweeted back.
The 78-year-old democratic socialist has rebounded from a heart attack last year, climbing polls of the Democratic field as the Iowa caucuses approach. In the realclearpolitics.com average for that state, which kicks off the primary on 3 February, Sanders leads the former South Bend, Indiana, mayor Pete Buttigieg by 21.3% to 21%.
In the same site’s average for New Hampshire, second to vote on 11 February, he leads former vice-president Joe Biden by 21.5% to 18.8%.
Biden leads the national average by nine points and had a boost in a Washington Post poll of African American voters released on Saturday, which put him 28 points ahead of Sanders nationally with that key voting bloc.
Changing tack after a screed of complaint about his looming impeachment trial, Trump tweeted on Sunday: “Wow! Crazy Bernie Sanders is surging in the polls, looking very good against his opponents in the Do Nothing Party. So what does this all mean? Stay tuned!”
In keeping his reply short and choosing not to tune into the abusive nickname the president has given him, Sanders had a little more success than House speaker Nancy Pelosi, who Trump earlier called “Crazy Nancy”.
Pelosi told ABC: “It’s Sunday morning. I’d like to talk about some more pleasant subjects than the erratic nature of this president … but he has to know that every knock from him is a boost.
“I don’t like to spend too much time on his crazy tweets, because everything he says is a projection. When he calls someone crazy, he knows that he is.”
If Trump’s tweet about Sanders was a projection of his fear of defeat in November, it may be that the president’s campaign team do not share it.
Speaking to the Guardian this weekend, Republican strategist turned Trump critic Rick Wilson said Sanders was the GOP’s “dream opponent”.
Sanders, Wilson said, was “the easiest person in the world to turn into the comic opera villain Republicans love to hate, the Castro sympathiser, the socialist, the Marxist, the guy who wants to put the aristos in the tumbril as they cart them off to the guillotine”.
Wilson also compared Sanders to Jeremy Corbyn, the British Labour party leader who lost a general election in December to Boris Johnson, “a very unlikeable PM [who] was able to convince a lot of Brits his opponent was too much of a risk.”
Sanders and his supporters show little sign of such concern. On Saturday, at slightly greater length, the senator tweeted: “Recently, our campaign has been the target of attacks from Trump and the Republican party – because they are catching on that our campaign is THE campaign that can and will defeat them.”
Realclearpolitics.com also runs polling averages matching Democrats with Trump in notional general elections. On Sunday, it gave Sanders victory by 2.6 points, 47.8% to 45.2%.
In the same average, Biden leads Trump by 4.5 points while Trump nudges out Warren by 0.2% and Buttigieg by a little over a point.


theguardian--2020-01-12--Impeachment: Trump fumes as Pelosi prepares to send articles to the Senate

Whether or not Nancy Pelosi is the “ absolute worst Speaker of the House in US history ” , as Donald Trump insists , the Democrat said on Sunday her caucus will meet on Tuesday to decide when to transmit two articles of impeachment to the Senate for trial .
Preparations continue for a piece of pure Washington theatre .
Richard Nixon resigned before he could be impeached , which makes Trump only the third president to face trial in the Senate , a process Andrew Johnson and Bill Clinton survived .
The articles of impeachment were approved before Christmas @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Senate while Democrats sought to negotiate trial rules with Republicans who hold the upper chamber .
Democrats want former national security adviser John Bolton and other key Trump aides to appear as witnesses and new evidence to be presented .
Bolton has said he will appear if served with a subpoena .
In an interview with Fox News broadcast on Friday night , Trump made clear that he would block such testimony , citing executive privilege .
Majority leader Mitch McConnell remains in lockstep with the White House , saying he has not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ impeachment is a political rather than a judicial process and promising the case against Trump will quickly be dismissed .
Republicans have followed their leader , regardless of the oath they will take to be impartial jurors .
Democratic hopes that moderates such as Susan Collins of Maine and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska might force the calling of witnesses seem to have been in vain .
“ It ’ s about a fair trial , ” Pelosi told ABC ’ s This Week on Sunday .
“ They take an oath to have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ would be with witnesses and documentation .
Now the ball is in their court to either do that or pay a price for not doing that.
” Pelosi said McConnell ’ s behaviour , including signing up to a resolution to dismiss the charges against Trump without a trial , was “ vastly unusual ” .
“ Dismissing is a cover-up , ” she said .
The case against Trump is that he abused his power , by seeking investigations in Ukraine regarding a conspiracy theory about election interference and alleged corruption involving @ @ @ @ @ @ @ obstructed Congress in its attempts to investigate the affair .
In House hearings , witnesses detailed the withholding of nearly $ 400m in military aid as well as promises of a White House meeting for Ukraine ’ s president , Volodymyr Zelinskiy .
Bolton , who sought a judge ’ s opinion on whether he should testify , thereby delaying a decision until the articles were approved , emerged as a key figure .
For example , Fiona Hill , a British-born former White House expert on Russia policy , explained how Bolton @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Trump lawyer Rudy Giuliani and others a “ drug deal ” in which he wanted no part .
Even if Republicans do allow new witnesses and documentation , a two-thirds majority of 100 senators would be required to remove Trump – a vastly unlikely outcome .
But leading Democrats , among them Senate minority leader Chuck Schumer and Adam Schiff , chairman of the House intelligence committee , have pointed to the emergence of new reporting on the Ukraine scandal as a benefit of Pelosi ’ s delay .
Pelosi told ABC : @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that this is impeachable and the president is impeached for life , regardless of any gamesmanship on the part of Mitch McConnell .
We ’ re confident in the impeachment and we think that ’ s enough testimony to remove [ Trump ] from office.
” On Saturday , Trump claimed “ new polling shows that the totally partisan Impeachment Hoax is going nowhere ” .
In fact , most polling shows the US public split .
On Saturday a CNN/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll of Iowa voters , released ahead of the caucuses @ @ @ @ @ @ @ February , said 45 % of voters in the state , of either party , disapproved of the process while 43 % approved .
Nationally , polls site fivethirtyeight.com puts support for removing Trump at 50.2 % , to 46.2 % against .
Trump spent the weekend presenting his aggressive moves against Iran as a contrast to alleged Democratic inaction domestically .
Pelosi “ is obsessed with impeachment ” , he told Fox News host Laura Ingraham .
“ She has done nothing .
She is going to go down as one of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ our country .
And she ’ s become a crazed lunatic.
” On Sunday , Trump demanded ABC host George Stephanopoulos “ ask Crazy Nancy why she allowed Adam ‘ Shifty ’ Schiff to totally make up my conversation with the Ukrainian President & read his false words to Congress and the world ” .
That was a reference to a summary Schiff made at a congressional hearing of a 25 July phone call between Trump and Zelinskiy which sits at the heart of Trump ’ s impeachment .
The president and allies @ @ @ @ @ @ @ misrepresent Trump ’ s words .
Opponents say the rough White House version of the call shows Trump engaged in impeachable behaviour .
Asked about Trump ’ s personal attacks , Pelosi told ABC : “ It ’ s Sunday morning .
I ’ d like to talk about some more pleasant subjects than the erratic nature of this president ... but he has to know that every knock from him is a boost.
” She added : “ I don ’ t like to spend too much time on his crazy tweets @ @ @ @ @ @ @ projection .
When he calls someone crazy , he knows that he is.
” Regarding Pelosi ’ s abilities as speaker , political Twitter lit up with discussion of a man who held the position from 1999 to 2007 , making him its longest-serving Republican .
In 2015 , Denny Hastert was sentenced to 15 months in prison for financial crimes related to attempts to cover up his abuse of teenage boys when he was a high-school wrestling coach .
Hastert admitted the abuse .
A federal judge called him “ serial child @ @ @

Whether or not Nancy Pelosi is the “absolute worst speaker of the House in US history”, as Donald Trump insists, the Democrat said on Sunday her caucus will meet on Tuesday to decide when to transmit two articles of impeachment to the Senate for trial.
Preparations continue for a piece of pure Washington theatre. Richard Nixon resigned before he could be impeached, which makes Trump only the third president to face trial in the Senate, a process Andrew Johnson and Bill Clinton survived.
The articles of impeachment were approved before Christmas but Pelosi delayed sending them to the Senate while Democrats sought to negotiate trial rules with Republicans who hold the upper chamber.
Democrats want the former national security adviser John Bolton and other key Trump aides to appear as witnesses and new evidence to be presented. Bolton has said he will appear if served with a subpoena.
In an interview with Fox News broadcast on Friday night, Trump made clear that he would block such testimony, citing executive privilege.
The Senate majority leader, Mitch McConnell, remains in lockstep with the White House, saying he has not ruled out new witnesses but emphasising that impeachment is a political rather than a judicial process and promising the case against Trump will quickly be dismissed.
Republicans have followed their leader, regardless of the oath they will take to be impartial jurors. Democratic hopes that moderates such as Susan Collins of Maine and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska might force the calling of witnesses seem to have been in vain.
“It’s about a fair trial,” Pelosi told ABC’s This Week on Sunday. “They take an oath to have a fair trial and we think that would be with witnesses and documentation. Now the ball is in their court to either do that or pay a price for not doing that.”
Pelosi said McConnell’s behaviour, including signing up to a resolution to dismiss the charges against Trump without a trial, was “vastly unusual”.
“Dismissing is a cover-up,” she said.
The case against Trump is that he abused his power, by seeking investigations in Ukraine regarding a conspiracy theory about election interference and alleged corruption involving former vice-president Joe Biden, and then obstructed Congress in its attempts to investigate the affair.
In House hearings, witnesses detailed the withholding of nearly $400m in military aid as well as promises of a White House meeting for Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelinskiy. Bolton, who sought a judge’s opinion on whether he should testify, thereby delaying a decision until the articles were approved, emerged as a key figure.
For example, Fiona Hill, a British-born former White House expert on Russia policy, explained how Bolton called efforts towards the Kyiv government by the Trump lawyer Rudy Giuliani and others a “drug deal” in which he wanted no part.
Even if Republicans do allow new witnesses and documentation, a two-thirds majority of 100 senators would be required to remove Trump – a vastly unlikely outcome.
But leading Democrats, among them the Senate minority leader, Chuck Schumer, and Adam Schiff, chairman of the House intelligence committee, have pointed to the emergence of new reporting on the Ukraine scandal as a benefit of Pelosi’s delay.
Pelosi told ABC: “We have confidence in our case that this is impeachable and the president is impeached for life, regardless of any gamesmanship on the part of Mitch McConnell. We’re confident in the impeachment and we think that’s enough testimony to remove [Trump] from office.”
On Saturday, Trump claimed “new polling shows that the totally partisan Impeachment Hoax is going nowhere”. In fact, most polling shows the US public split.
On Saturday a CNN/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll of Iowa voters, released ahead of the caucuses which kick off the Democratic primary on 3 February, said 45% of voters in the state, of either party, disapproved of the process while 43% approved. Nationally, the polls site fivethirtyeight.com puts support for impeaching Trump at 50.2%, to 46.2% against.
Trump spent the weekend presenting his aggressive moves against Iran as a contrast to alleged Democratic inaction domestically. Pelosi “is obsessed with impeachment”, he told Fox News host Laura Ingraham. “She has done nothing. She is going to go down as one of the worst speakers in the history of our country. And she’s become a crazed lunatic.”
On Sunday, Trump demanded the ABC host George Stephanopoulos “ask Crazy Nancy why she allowed Adam ‘Shifty’ Schiff to totally make up my conversation with the Ukrainian President & read his false words to Congress and the world”.
That was a reference to a summary Schiff made at a congressional hearing of a 25 July phone call between Trump and Zelinskiy which sits at the heart of Trump’s impeachment.
The president and allies have sought to portray it as an attempt to misrepresent Trump’s words. Opponents say the rough White House version of the call shows Trump engaged in impeachable behaviour.
Asked about Trump’s personal attacks, Pelosi told ABC: “It’s Sunday morning. I’d like to talk about some more pleasant subjects than the erratic nature of this president ... but he has to know that every knock from him is a boost.”
She added: “I don’t like to spend too much time on his crazy tweets, because everything he says is a projection. When he calls someone crazy, he knows that he is.”
Regarding Pelosi’s abilities as speaker, political Twitter lit up with discussion of a man who held the position from 1999 to 2007, Denny Hastert, making him its longest-serving Republican.
In 2015, Hastert was sentenced to 15 months in prison for financial crimes related to attempts to cover up his abuse of teenage boys when he was a high-school wrestling coach. Hastert admitted the abuse. A federal judge called him a “serial child molester”.


theguardian--2020-01-12--Electoral college: how Trump could lose the popular vote and win again

Donald Trump has the dubious distinction of being the only US president since Gallup began tracking presidential approval ratings in 1938 to have been permanently “ under water ” – he has never been viewed favorably by half or more of the American electorate .
Trump should , by historical precedent , be looking at a thumping defeat in the 2020 presidential election .
But political scientists and strategists have told the Guardian that he could be thrown a re-election lifeline thanks to the country ’ s quirky approach to democracy in the form of the electoral college .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the 3 November election could see Trump being outgunned by his Democratic challenger in the popular vote – the total number of votes cast nationwide – by twice the amount that Hillary Clinton surpassed him in 2016 , yet still return to the White House for a second term .
“ It is entirely possible that in 2020 we will once again see Republicans losing the popular vote and winning the electoral college , this time potentially by even greater margins , ” he said .
The electoral college was the compromise system @ @ @ @ @ @ @ founding fathers .
Its aim was to balance the direct votes of qualified citizens with a vote in Congress .
The result is that the occupant of the Oval Office is not elected directly by the American people but indirectly by state-based “ electors ” .
There are 538 electors in total , which means that to win the White House the successful candidate must attract the votes of 270 of them .
In most election cycles the electoral college results have been in sync with the popular vote .
But in 2016 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the electoral college Trump won handsomely – by 306 electoral votes to Clinton ’ s 232 .
But in the popular vote Clinton was the clear winner with 65.9m votes to Trump ’ s 63.0m votes – a difference of two percentage points ( 48 % to 46 % ) .
By Sabato ’ s reckoning , that rift between the electoral college and the popular vote could be stretched further in November and see Trump win again .
“ The 2020 Democratic nominee could easily double Clinton ’ s lead in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ four percentage points , and still lose , depending on where those votes came from , ” Sabato said .
The fear that the electoral college could give Trump four more years to transform America in his image has rippled through the Democrats competing to challenge him in the election .
Several of the Democratic candidates have called for overhaul of the current system , including Elizabeth Warren , Bernie Sanders and Pete Buttigieg .
The solution they propose in common is quite simple – replace the convoluted electoral college with a direct @ @ @ @ @ @ @ presidency to whichever candidate garners most votes across the country .
That may look straightforward on paper , but the practicalities of switching to a new system are daunting .
To change would require an amendment to the US constitution which is much easier said than done .
Not only would both the House and Senate in Congress need to approve the change by a two-thirds majority , but three-quarters of the individual state assemblies would have to ratify it ( 38 out of 50 states ) .
“ A constitutional amendment is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Alan Abramowitz , professor of political science at Emory University .
“ There ’ s no way to get two-thirds of the House and the Senate to support an amendment of any kind.
” Advocates of reform have devised clever ways around this roadblock that would essentially keep the electoral college in place but shift its method of counting to the popular vote without requiring a constitutional amendment .
The most prominent of these attempts is the National Vote Interstate Compact , which seeks to persuade individual states to sign up to a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ would guarantee the presidency to the candidate who garners the most popular votes .
The compact would kick in only when enough states had joined to collectively pass the 270 electoral college votes needed to secure the presidency .
Once that line had been crossed , the participating states would deliver the White House to the winner of the popular vote .
The problem with this inventive scheme is that a mountain has yet to be climbed before the magic line of 270 is passed .
So far the compact has been enacted @ @ @ @ @ @ @ DC , which between them muster only 196 electoral votes – a deficit of 74 .
None of those jurisdictions are Republican-controlled , which is unsurprising given the electoral college has tended to be to the advantage of Republican presidential candidates .
The last time the winner of a US presidential election lost the popular vote the discrepancy also helped a Republican – George W Bush , who in 2000 received 544,000 fewer votes than his vanquished Democratic rival , Al Gore .
You then have to go back to 1888 to find @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the anomaly of 2016 , 2000 and 1888 that some experts think that a repeat “ misfire ” , as the disparity is known , is unlikely in November .
Abramowitz has studied all 11 presidential elections since the end of the second world war in which an incumbent was running for re-election – the last being Barack Obama in 2012 – and noted there were no misfires .
“ If the Trump campaign is counting on the electoral college gifting them the election again , that ’ s a very high-risk strategy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ other hand , as the demography of America changes , the distorting influence of the electoral college appears to be growing .
The US population is becoming more diverse , and more heavily concentrated in major cities that lean strongly Democratic .
That in turn is creating a tendency for Democratic votes to be “ wasted ” – with vastly more being cast in states like California , New York and Illinois than are needed to win the electoral votes .
By contrast , Republican voters – who tend to be less diverse @ @ @ @ @ @ @ low-density rural states in a way that is more efficient under the electoral college .
David Frum , George W Bush ’ s former speechwriter , said the electoral college is just one of several factors that he calls “ anti-majoritarian influences ” in play in the US today .
“ It is a pervasive fact up and down , from local elections to the presidency , that electoral outcomes track voter intent poorly , ” he said .
Other factors include low levels of voter registration , hurdles to voting and the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that apportions Wyoming ’ s population of 579,000 the same number of senators ( two ) as California ’ s 40 million .
“ The anti-majoritarian features favor rural America over urban America , light-populated over heavily-populated states , ” Frum said .
“ That ’ s an issue that goes back deep into American history , but Trump is its latest benefactor.
” He added : “ Trump is an unpopular president .
In a purely majoritarian system the election would probably not even be that close .
But run his support @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , sure , it ’ s possible he could win .
”