theguardian--2020-11-05--Trump supporters protest at Arizona vote counting centre

Dozens of Donald Trump supporters converged on a vote-counting centre in the key battleground state of Arizona as election staff continued to plough through uncounted ballots with local sheriff ’ s deputies posted outside .
The protesters , some of whom the local TV network ABC 15 Arizona reported were carrying weapons , briefly attempted to push inside the centre on Wednesday evening before being asked to leave .
They appeared to be a mixture of Trump supporters and several far-right figures familiar at demonstrations in the state .
Arizona has been called by some media outlets for the Democratic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a slim lead in the state .
But the Trump campaign has tried to insist it has the votes to overtake Biden , who has a 69,000 lead , according to the most recent tally .
In contrast to pro-Trump protests witnessed in Michigan and Pennsylvania , where Trump supporters called for vote counts to be halted , protesters in Phoenix have been chanting “ Stop the steal !
” and insisting remaining ballots be tabulated .
The situation in Arizona has been complicated by the decision by Fox News and Associated Press @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Guardian – to call the state for Biden on Wednesday when there were still hundreds of thousands of votes to be counted .
On Wednesday night , with Biden ’ s lead narrowing in the state , a newly tallied batch of 74,000 votes from Maricopa county , benefiting Trump 59 % to 41 % , were released .
The remaining votes to be counted , however , mainly come from the largely Democratic Pima county , which is expected to benefit Biden .
Maricopa county ’ s next update is not due @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Despite the Trump campaign ’ s insistence that uncounted votes could swing Arizona , other observers were sceptical .
The Washington Post ’ s analyst Philip Bump suggested that even if the advantage for Trump in the last batch of votes to be released held firm for the rest of the uncounted votes it could “ close most – though not all – of the existing gap ” .
The protests at the Maricopa county election centre in downtown Phoenix came as Trump insisted falsely that there were major problems with the voting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ mail-in votes , and as Republicans filed suit in various states over the election .
Wearing Trump gear , the Phoenix protesters filled much of the parking lot at the election centre , and members of the crowd chanted : “ Fox News sucks !
” in anger over the network declaring Biden the winner in Arizona .
The representative Paul Gosar , an Arizona Republican and staunch Trump supporter , joined the crowd , declaring : “ We ’ re not going to let this election be stolen .
Period.
” However @ @ @ @ @ @ @ were inside the election centre as ballots were processed and counted , and the procedure was livestreamed online at all times .
Several sheriff ’ s deputies blocked the entrance to the building and the vote-counting went on into the night , Maricopa county elections department spokeswoman Megan Gilbertson said .
Two top county officials – one a Democrat , the other a Republican – issued a statement expressing concern about how misinformation had spread about the integrity of the election process .
“ Everyone should want all the votes to be counted @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in person , ” said the statement signed by Clint Hickman , the Republican chair of the Maricopa county board of supervisors and the Democratic supervisor Steve Gallardo .
“ An accurate vote takes time … This is evidence of democracy , not fraud.
” Associated Press contributed to this article

Scores of Donald Trump supporters converged on a vote-counting centre in Phoenix, in the key battleground state of Arizona, as backers of both the president and Joe Biden took to the streets in several US cities.
The protesters in Phoenix on Wednesday evening, some of whom were reported to be carrying weapons, according to the local TV network ABC 15 Arizona, briefly tried to push into the centre before being asked to leave. They appeared to be a mix of Trump supporters and several far-right figures familiar at demonstrations in the state.
Arizona has been called by some media outlets for Biden, who holds a slim lead in the state. But the Trump campaign tried to insist it had the votes to overtake him. According to the most recent tally, Biden had a lead of nearly 69,000 votes.
In contrast to pro-Trump protests seen in Michigan and Pennsylvania, where the president’s supporters called for vote counts to be halted, protesters in Phoenix chanted “stop the steal!” and demanded that remaining ballots be tabulated.
Protests, sometimes about the election and sometimes about racial inequality, also occurred on Wednesday in at least half a dozen cities, including Los Angeles, Seattle, Houston, Pittsburgh, Minneapolis and San Diego.
Police in Seattle, and Portland, Oregon, arrested more than a dozen people as hundreds took to the streets to demand a full count of all presidential election votes and a halt to Trump’s court challenges to stop vote counts in some key battleground states.
Although the protests were largely small and peaceful they underlined the lingering fear of disturbances that has hung over the election.
Q&A How will the Guardian report US election results? Show Though most people will probably be watching the results of the race for the White House, more than 7,000 elections took place across the US on 3 November. In the age of disinformation, it is more important than ever that media outlets report election results as clearly and transparently as possible. The Guardian will be using data collected and analysed by the Associated Press (AP) as the source for when we will call election results for the presidency, Senate, House races and others. AP has a team of thousands of specialists and correspondents across America, who have trusted relationships with local officials. This will guide their data-led assessment of when it's time to call a race. There are a number of other highly reputable election "decision desks" in US media. They may call races earlier than AP. While the Guardian will report this is happening, we will rely on AP's data to make our own final call. Should any candidate declare victory prematurely, we will report this claim, but make clear that it is not valid. The only measure of victory is a complete count of all outstanding ballots. Was this helpful? Thank you for your feedback.
The situation in Arizona has been complicated by the decision by Fox News and the Associated Press – the latter’s US voting assessments are used by the Guardian – to call the state for Biden on Wednesday when there were still hundreds of thousands of votes to be counted.
On Wednesday night, with Biden’s lead narrowing in the state, a newly tallied batch of 74,000 votes from Maricopa county, benefiting Trump 59% to 41%, were released.
The remaining Arizona votes to be counted, however, are mainly from the largely pro-Democrat Pima county, which is expected to benefit Biden. Maricopa county’s next update is not due until after 9pm ET on Thursday (2am GMT Friday).
Despite the Trump campaign’s insistence that uncounted votes could swing Arizona, other observers were sceptical. Philip Bump, an analyst with the Washington Post, suggested that even if the advantage for Trump in the last batch of votes to be released held firm, for the rest of the uncounted votes it could “close most, though not all, of the existing gap”.
The protests at the Maricopa county election centre in downtown Phoenix came as Trump insisted falsely that there were major problems with the voting and the ballot counts, especially with mail-in votes, and as Republicans filed lawsuits in various states.
Wearing Trump gear, the Phoenix protesters filled much of the parking lot at the election centre, and members of the crowd chanted “Fox News sucks!” in anger over the network declaring Biden the winner in Arizona.
Representative Paul Gosar, an Arizona Republican and staunch Trump supporter, joined the crowd, declaring: “We’re not going to let this election be stolen. Period.”
Observers from both of the main political parties were inside the election centre as ballots were processed and counted, and the procedure was livestreamed online at all times.
Several sheriff’s deputies blocked the entrance to the building and the vote-counting went on into the night, said Megan Gilbertson, a spokeswoman for Maricopa county elections department.
Two top county officials, one a Democrat and the other a Republican, issued a statement expressing concern about how misinformation had spread about the integrity of the election process.
“Everyone should want all the votes to be counted, whether they were mailed or cast in person. An accurate vote takes time … This is evidence of democracy, not fraud,” said the statement signed by Clint Hickman, the Republican chair of the Maricopa county board of supervisors, and the Democratic supervisor, Steve Gallardo.
Associated Press contributed to this article


theguardian--2020-11-05--From Australia, it's hard to comprehend the depredations on display at the US election | Samuel Hend

From Australia, it's hard to comprehend the depredations on display at the US election | Samuel Hendricks

Donald Trump ’ s premature declaration of victory , as predictable as a setting sun , should have surprised no one , and yet it sent shivers down the spine of history .
He really did it .
He wants to stop the counting and go to court – the very supreme court he succeeded in stacking only last week .
Amid the tempest he has done much to create , Trump has a distinct advantage : he is an aspiring autocrat who puts no apparent bounds on himself .
With his breathtaking disregard for constitutional process or established protocol @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the brink of an unprecedented crisis and barely seems to have blinked .
The only question was and is how his opponent would respond .
Joe Biden , in the grand tradition of Democratic contenders since Richard Nixon resigned in disgrace after the Watergate fiasco , has run on a campaign of being an upstanding guy .
You win some , you lose some .
But perhaps the Bush-Gore debacle of 2000 , in which the Democratic former vice-president bowed out before things got too ugly , served as an object lesson to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The Republican party , going back decades , has been playing to win , and playing dirty .
Faced with shifting demographics , the economic convulsions of globalisation , the slack religiosity of post-60s America and tumbling innovations in technology and pop culture , it has found a way to bring a constituency around the notion of conservatism .
That word may ring very different bells on Wall Street and in the farm belt and the rust belt and the south , but it gathers those who hear the call .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to be discerned , is grievance – grievance over the denial of rights , whether they be social , economic , religious or political .
Or just having a gun you ’ re convinced will be taken away .
Never mind that the assertion of those rights might trample those of another .
Disingenuous to the bone and completely faultless , Trump is the perfect leader of his party : waving the flag so hard the stars separate from the stripes .
Most of all , however , Republicans have gamed the electoral @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a governing majority .
Through absurd gerrymandering , voter roll purges , voter ID laws , court challenges to ballot counts and other tactics , Republicans have made clear what they think of the democratic system they operate within and their real chances in it , all things being equal .
The Democratic party is not on the same playing field .
It desperately wants to govern , but in a country that seems not to want to be governed too much , a country proudly astride its past perceived glories .
Trump @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be placated with empty bluster , and the anxieties of the present and the future can be wished away if you shout loudly enough .
At the start of the race , forever ago , Biden seemed like a ring-in : the establishment figure , on in his years , who had no chance against the bucking youngsters with their big ideas ( European social democracy–lite , fit for American consumption ) ; the brilliant Elizabeth Warren , who would have fixed a different America ; and the bronco Bernie Sanders , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a different country , might have launched and won with his own party .
Biden bided his time .
And his biggest political gift was the unimaginable tragedy of a pandemic that has ravaged the country and brought home the need for a leader capable of human sympathy , who might also have spent some time around the White House .
Australians rightly fail to comprehend the depredations on display in this election .
Regardless of how things end up , this drama will leave a long and lingering sense of confusion .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ a big American state , on a land mass – an island – nearly the size of the entire US .
It has a robust and independent national electoral commission and compulsory voting .
No one doubts the count in Australia .
Not everyone likes the outcome ; there are many battles to fight .
But we ’ re a democracy – we ’ ll work it out .
It could never happen here .
That ’ s what they all say .
• Samuel Hendricks is the deputy editor of the Lowy @ @ @ @ @

Donald Trump’s premature declaration of victory, as predictable as a setting sun, should have surprised no one, and yet it sent shivers down the spine of history.
He really did it. He wants to stop the counting and go to court – the very supreme court he succeeded in stacking only last week.
Amid the tempest he has done much to create, Trump has a distinct advantage: he is an aspiring autocrat who puts no apparent bounds on himself. With his breathtaking disregard for constitutional process or established protocol, he has taken the country to the brink of an unprecedented crisis and barely seems to have blinked.
The only question was and is how his opponent would respond.
Joe Biden, in the grand tradition of Democratic contenders since Richard Nixon resigned in disgrace after the Watergate fiasco, has run on a campaign of being an upstanding guy. You win some, you lose some. But perhaps the Bush-Gore debacle of 2000, in which the Democratic former vice-president bowed out before things got too ugly, served as an object lesson to stay in the fight until the end.
The Republican party, going back decades, has been playing to win, and playing dirty. Faced with shifting demographics, the economic convulsions of globalisation, the slack religiosity of post-60s America and tumbling innovations in technology and pop culture, it has found a way to bring a constituency around the notion of conservatism.
That word may ring very different bells on Wall Street and in the farm belt and the rust belt and the south, but it gathers those who hear the call. The unifying note, if there is one to be discerned, is grievance – grievance over the denial of rights, whether they be social, economic, religious or political. Or just having a gun you’re convinced will be taken away. Never mind that the assertion of those rights might trample those of another.
Disingenuous to the bone and completely faultless, Trump is the perfect leader of his party: waving the flag so hard the stars separate from the stripes.
Most of all, however, Republicans have gamed the electoral system to turn their demographic minority into a governing majority. Through absurd gerrymandering, voter roll purges, voter ID laws, court challenges to ballot counts and other tactics, Republicans have made clear what they think of the democratic system they operate within and their real chances in it, all things being equal.
The Democratic party is not on the same playing field. It desperately wants to govern, but in a country that seems not to want to be governed too much, a country proudly astride its past perceived glories. Trump has shown that plenty of Americans can be placated with empty bluster, and the anxieties of the present and the future can be wished away if you shout loudly enough.
At the start of the race, forever ago, Biden seemed like a ring-in: the establishment figure, on in his years, who had no chance against the bucking youngsters with their big ideas (European social democracy–lite, fit for American consumption); the brilliant Elizabeth Warren, who would have fixed a different America; and the bronco Bernie Sanders, the slayer of economic inequality who, in a different country, might have launched and won with his own party.
Biden bided his time. And his biggest political gift was the unimaginable tragedy of a pandemic that has ravaged the country and brought home the need for a leader capable of human sympathy, who might also have spent some time around the White House.
Australians rightly fail to comprehend the depredations on display in this election. Regardless of how things end up, this drama will leave a long and lingering sense of confusion.
Australia has a population the size of a big American state, on a land mass – an island – nearly the size of the entire US. It has a robust and independent national electoral commission and compulsory voting. No one doubts the count in Australia. Not everyone likes the outcome; there are many battles to fight. But we’re a democracy – we’ll work it out.
It could never happen here. That’s what they all say.


theguardian--2020-11-04--The pollsters were wrong – again. Here's what we know so far | Mona Chalabi

On any given day , my role is to write .
On this particular day , I am supposed to write about what 240 million people decided – whether they stood in line or stuck down an envelope and which box they checked on a piece of paper .
But at this particular moment , I have nothing to write .
I am watching people talk loudly on a television screen and reading people type in ALL CAPS on Twitter and I am thinking about the importance of not writing .
Journalists , supposedly chastened by a 2016 Trump win @ @ @ @ @ @ @ were going to be very cautious this time around .
No more flailing New York Times needle .
No more decimal places on FiveThirtyEight ’ s homepage - instead , a cartoon fox in glasses explaining to you what voters might do .
And yet countless articles were still written over the past few months predicting that a Biden win was more likely than a Trump win , and so a lot of people are shouting online and offline because they have been caught by surprise .
Because yet again , somehow , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will still see a President Joe Biden .
I understand you are here looking for factual certainties instead of “ maybes ” and I can ’ t give you those right now at a presidential level .
Here is what I can say : 1 The polls were probably inaccurate .
Again .
When I say “ polls ” here , I ’ m not talking about the actual process of voting in an election , I am referring to very expensive surveys that ask about a thousand US adults who they will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ confusing that these both have the same name ) .
Overall , most polls gave Biden a lead nationally .
A significant lead of five to 10 percentage points appeared as soon as the surveys started and persisted right up until election day .
Pollsters claimed that they had learned the lessons from their 2016 mistakes .
In fact , Biden was so far out in front , according to the pollsters ’ questionnaires with strangers , that even if they were as wrong in 2020 as they were four years ago , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ It ’ s possible , however , that they were actually more wrong this time around – either because they found it even harder to track down and speak to 1,000 adults who accurately represented 240 million voters , or because Trump voters were even more reluctant this time to tell a stranger their preferred candidate .
Or both .
As of around 11.30am ET on Wednesday , it looks like if Biden does win , it will not be by a large margin .
Unfortunately , it is going to take a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the votes .
Four key battleground states – Pennsylvania , Nevada , Michigan and Georgia – still have tens of thousands of absentee ballots uncounted .
Election workers might need days , not hours , to get to a final tally .
2 The electoral college is still broken .
In US presidential elections , there are two kinds of “ wins ” : by popular vote and by the electoral college .
Only the latter means you become president .
The two do not necessarily go hand in hand .
In 2000 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the popular vote still did not go to the White House .
It is quite possible that Biden will win the popular vote and lose the electoral college .
Currently , it looks like Biden will win the popular vote , and he still has some hope of winning the electoral college , too .
Most of the votes left to be counted are absentee or mail-in ballots .
We know that those ballots are more likely to be Democrat than Republican .
Early voting has long skewed Democrat , but this time @ @ @ @ @ @ @ more likely to make Democrats choose to vote by mail over voting in person , compared to Republicans .
( Republicans are more likely to have consumed media that has downplayed or flat-out denied Covid-19 . )
Take Pennsylvania , for instance , where , at time of writing , 84 % of votes have been counted and Biden is losing by more than 300,000 ballots .
There are almost 1.1m ballots left to count and Biden is winning three mail-in ballots for every one that goes to Trump .
A little simple @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 1.1 million votes = 825,000 ) indicates that Biden might comfortably win , once the votes are fully counted .
3 Some women voted for Biden .
Some women did not .
Initially , this article was supposed to analyze the demographics of support for each candidate so let me try to at least throw my editor a bone .
As much as I am thoroughly skeptical of polling , exit polls are slightly more accurate – they interview far more people ( this Edison survey spoke to 14,318 adults , whereas most @ @ @ @ @ @ @ they speak to people who have already voted rather than asking people days , sometimes weeks , ahead of time who they maybe plan to maybe vote for .
The exit polls suggest that whereas men were pretty evenly split ( 49 % Biden , 48 % Trump ) , women as a group tended to favor Biden ( 57 % Biden , 42 % Trump ) .
But , in case you haven ’ t noticed , women are a pretty big old group .
Demographics can not be divided into neat @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be rich and Black and male and living in a suburb and college-educated and each of those factors can influence someone ’ s vote differently .
Despite the fact that Trump described Mexican immigrants as “ bad hombres ” and “ rapists ” during his 2016 campaign , Hispanic voters in Florida still showed up for Trump because many Cubans appreciated his anti-communist stance .
So I ’ m not placing much faith in these numbers either .
People do not vote in tidy groups .
So I do not have much to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I wrote on 9 November 2016 , and make the same plea : avoid predicting the behavior of 240 million people , avoid reading those predictions , avoid complacency .
Journalists will continue to create charts predicting future presidents as long as readers continue to demand them .
I do not know how many times polls have to be wrong or how wrong they have to be for us to finally walk away from the dangerous seduction of predicting political outcomes .
Seeing graphics that tell us the future is hypnotic , but @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Especially now .

On any given day, my role is to write. On this particular day, I am supposed to write about what 240 million people decided – whether they stood in line or stuck down an envelope and which box they checked on a piece of paper.
But at this particular moment, I have nothing to write. I am watching people talk loudly on a television screen and reading people type in ALL CAPS on Twitter and I am thinking about the importance of not writing.
Journalists, supposedly chastened by a 2016 Trump win that they did not see coming, were going to be very cautious this time around. No more flailing New York Times needle. No more decimal places on FiveThirtyEight’s homepage - instead, a cartoon fox in glasses explaining to you what voters might do. And yet countless articles were still written over the past few months predicting that a Biden win was more likely than a Trump win, and so a lot of people are shouting online and offline because they have been caught by surprise. Because yet again, somehow, they trusted the polls.
Maybe we will still see a President Joe Biden. I understand you are here looking for factual certainties instead of “maybes” and I can’t give you those right now at a presidential level. Here is what I can say:
1 The polls were probably inaccurate. Again.
When I say “polls” here, I’m not talking about the actual process of voting in an election, I am referring to very expensive surveys that ask about a thousand US adults who they will vote for (although it’s confusing that these both have the same name).
Overall, most polls gave Biden a lead nationally. A significant lead of five to 10 percentage points appeared as soon as the surveys started and persisted right up until election day. Pollsters claimed that they had learned the lessons from their 2016 mistakes. In fact, Biden was so far out in front, according to the pollsters’ questionnaires with strangers, that even if they were as wrong in 2020 as they were four years ago, Biden would still probably win comfortably.
It’s possible, however, that they were actually more wrong this time around – either because they found it even harder to track down and speak to 1,000 adults who accurately represented 240 million voters, or because Trump voters were even more reluctant this time to tell a stranger their preferred candidate. Or both.
As of around 11.30am ET on Wednesday, it looks like if Biden does win, it will not be by a large margin. Unfortunately, it is going to take a very long time to count all of the votes. Four key battleground states – Pennsylvania, Nevada, Michigan and Georgia – still have tens of thousands of absentee ballots uncounted. Election workers might need days, not hours, to get to a final tally.
2 The electoral college is still broken.
In US presidential elections, there are two kinds of “wins”: by popular vote and by the electoral college. Only the latter means you become president. The two do not necessarily go hand in hand. In 2000 and 2016, Democratic candidates who won the popular vote still did not go to the White House. It is quite possible that Biden will win the popular vote and lose the electoral college.
Currently, it looks like Biden will win the popular vote, and he still has some hope of winning the electoral college, too. Most of the votes left to be counted are absentee or mail-in ballots. We know that those ballots are more likely to be Democrat than Republican. Early voting has long skewed Democrat, but this time there is also a pandemic that is more likely to make Democrats choose to vote by mail over voting in person, compared to Republicans. (Republicans are more likely to have consumed media that has downplayed or flat-out denied Covid-19.)
Take Pennsylvania, for instance, where, at time of writing, 84% of votes have been counted and Biden is losing by more than 300,000 ballots. There are almost 1.1m ballots left to count and Biden is winning three mail-in ballots for every one that goes to Trump. A little simple arithmetic (winning approximately 75% of 1.1 million votes = 825,000) indicates that Biden might comfortably win, once the votes are fully counted.
3 Some women voted for Biden. Some women did not.
Initially, this article was supposed to analyze the demographics of support for each candidate so let me try to at least throw my editor a bone.
As much as I am thoroughly skeptical of polling, exit polls are slightly more accurate – they interview far more people (this Edison survey spoke to 14,318 adults, whereas most polls speak to around 1,000) and they speak to people who have already voted rather than asking people days, sometimes weeks, ahead of time who they maybe plan to maybe vote for.
The exit polls suggest that whereas men were pretty evenly split (49% Biden, 48% Trump), women as a group tended to favor Biden (57% Biden, 42% Trump). But, in case you haven’t noticed, women are a pretty big old group. Demographics cannot be divided into neat slices of the pie – Americans can be rich and Black and male and living in a suburb and college-educated and each of those factors can influence someone’s vote differently.
Despite the fact that Trump described Mexican immigrants as “bad hombres” and “rapists” during his 2016 campaign, Hispanic voters in Florida still showed up for Trump because many Cubans appreciated his anti-communist stance. So I’m not placing much faith in these numbers either. People do not vote in tidy groups.
So I do not have much to write. Except to resurface the article I wrote on 9 November 2016, and make the same plea: avoid predicting the behavior of 240 million people, avoid reading those predictions, avoid complacency.
Journalists will continue to create charts predicting future presidents as long as readers continue to demand them. I do not know how many times polls have to be wrong or how wrong they have to be for us to finally walk away from the dangerous seduction of predicting political outcomes. Seeing graphics that tell us the future is hypnotic, but it is very important to be awake. Especially now.


theguardian--2020-11-04--The Guardian view on the US elections: a nation dangerously divided | Editorial

Whoever wins this year ’ s election , America remains a country bitterly and evenly divided .
It has been more than three decades since the last presidential landslide .
Despite polls suggesting that Donald Trump was poised to suffer a sweeping rejection by the voters , there was no repudiation of the president .
Rather , just a fraction of the popular vote separates Joe Biden and Mr Trump .
Our view was that Mr Trump deserved to lose and in a big way .
His mismanagement of the coronavirus crisis , which cost hundreds of thousands of American @ @ @ @ @ @ @ there were numerous reasons for Mr Trump ’ s ejection from the White House , given he ran the worst administration in modern US history .
It is small comfort that Americans understood the threat that Mr Trump represented and turned out in record numbers to vote against him .
Yet , as this election depressingly revealed , there was an almost equal and opposite reaction from Mr Trump ’ s base .
The president ’ s appeal , it seems , has only widened and deepened since he took office .
Mr @ @ @ @ @ @ @ he did in 2016 that his tally is only surpassed by Mr Biden this year , and Barack Obama in 2008 .
Should he depart , and there are few signs he will do so without a fight , Mr Trump ’ s legacy will be the politics of anger and hate .
It is a tragedy for America that a poisonous division is becoming the norm rather than the exception .
The concern in the US is that cultural divisions have gone past the point of no return .
The priority for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ way to stop the political rift from yawning so wide that the two hostile , sometimes armed , camps are incapable of talking to each other .
The national conversation will not be easy to start , especially given the venomous way in which President Trump conducts politics .
If there was any idea that the country could pick up after the election where it left off in 2016 , it vanished the moment Mr Trump declared a victory he obviously had not yet won .
His claim that his legal team would @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the votes that have already been cast , ballots which are widely viewed as certain to skew Democratic , was as outrageous as it was expected .
Republicans have embraced their inner Trump , which is why democracy itself was on the ballot in 2020 .
Under Republican control , the US Congress , for the first two years of Trump ’ s presidency , did not check Mr Trump ’ s assault on the norms of democratic governance as much as enable it .
The Grand Old Party has increasingly turned to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Faced with unfavourable demographic change , Republicans have cemented minority rule across American political institutions .
The question that Mr Trump now poses is whether Republicans would go as far in their pursuit of power to undo a presidential election .
The president may be counting on Republicans to subvert longstanding election norms or hope that the supreme court , to which he appointed three justices , will make the final call .
If permitted , the ensuing constitutional crisis would dwarf Trumpism ’ s outrages .
It would also play out @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , which would bring with it the threat of civic strife .
There is a real worry that the two main US parties appear locked in a dangerous and ferocious power struggle for control of the government .
Mr Trump ’ s divisive politics have seen elections become a source of volatility in the world ’ s leading democracy .
The margin of control of the Senate is so narrow that it would be foolish to predict who may end up in charge .
Democrats retain their hold on the House of Representatives @ @ @ @ @ @ @ before .
This is a zero-sum game , where one party ’ s loss is another ’ s gain .
Government in America , and its people , will be the losers .

Whoever wins this year’s election, America remains a country bitterly and evenly divided. It has been more than three decades since the last presidential landslide. Despite polls suggesting that Donald Trump was poised to suffer a sweeping rejection by the voters, there was no repudiation of the president. Rather, just a fraction of the popular vote separates Joe Biden and Mr Trump.
Our view was that Mr Trump deserved to lose and in a big way. His mismanagement of the coronavirus crisis, which cost hundreds of thousands of American lives, was cause enough. But there were numerous reasons for Mr Trump’s ejection from the White House, given he ran the worst administration in modern US history.
It is small comfort that Americans understood the threat that Mr Trump represented and turned out in record numbers to vote against him. Yet, as this election depressingly revealed, there was an almost equal and opposite reaction from Mr Trump’s base. The president’s appeal, it seems, has only widened and deepened since he took office. Mr Trump received so many more votes than he did in 2016 that his tally is only surpassed by Mr Biden this year, and Barack Obama in 2008.
Should he depart, and there are few signs he will do so without a fight, Mr Trump’s legacy will be the politics of anger and hate. It is a tragedy for America that a poisonous division is becoming the norm rather than the exception. The concern in the US is that cultural divisions have gone past the point of no return. The priority for Americans must be to work out a way to stop the political rift from yawning so wide that the two hostile, sometimes armed, camps are incapable of talking to each other.
The national conversation will not be easy to start, especially given the venomous way in which President Trump conducts politics. If there was any idea that the country could pick up after the election where it left off in 2016, it vanished the moment Mr Trump declared a victory he obviously had not yet won. His claim that his legal team would attempt to block states from counting all the votes that have already been cast, ballots which are widely viewed as certain to skew Democratic, was as outrageous as it was expected.
Republicans have embraced their inner Trump, which is why democracy itself was on the ballot in 2020. Under Republican control, the US Congress, for the first two years of Trump’s presidency, did not check Mr Trump’s assault on the norms of democratic governance as much as enable it. The Grand Old Party has increasingly turned to policies designed to constrain the majority electorate. Faced with unfavourable demographic change, Republicans have cemented minority rule across American political institutions. The question that Mr Trump now poses is whether Republicans would go as far in their pursuit of power to undo a presidential election.
The president may be counting on Republicans to subvert longstanding election norms or hope that the supreme court, to which he appointed three justices, will make the final call. If permitted, the ensuing constitutional crisis would dwarf Trumpism’s outrages. It would also play out against a background of heightened political mobilisation, which would bring with it the threat of civic strife.
There is a real worry that the two main US parties appear locked in a dangerous and ferocious power struggle for control of the government. Mr Trump’s divisive politics have seen elections become a source of volatility in the world’s leading democracy. The margin of control of the Senate is so narrow that it would be foolish to predict who may end up in charge. Democrats retain their hold on the House of Representatives, but with a looser grip than before. This is a zero-sum game, where one party’s loss is another’s gain. Government in America, and its people, will be the losers.


theguardian--2020-11-04--Democracy in Trumpland: I won because I say so | Ed Pilkington

It was the grand , carefully choreographed victory speech that Donald Trump never got to make in 2016 .
Hail to the Chief was playing in the background as the president took to the stage around 2am , a phalanx of Stars and Stripes at his back and in front of him a maskless crowd of progeny and devotees screaming “ We love you !
” In 2016 Trump was so stunned by his own unexpected triumph that he looked quite taken aback .
His victory speech was written in such a hurry it contained profuse praise for Hillary Clinton @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to chants of “ lock her up ” .
Having stumbled four years ago , Trump did it on Wednesday morning his way , amid the grandeur of the East Room of the White House .
“ Frankly , we did win this election , ” he said , the room erupting in a frenzy of cheers .
It was a spectacle that spoke volumes about the man , and about the nation at this singularly damaged and dangerous moment in its 244-year history .
An incumbent president declares victory even though he @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that fraud is being committed on the American public in the middle of an election that has seen the largest turnout of any presidential race in 120 years .
As the president was playing out his little victory fantasy , Democrats were going through their own version of hell .
If the story of the night for Trump was about him pretending to have won just the way he liked it , for Joe Biden and his Democratic cohorts it was about dutifully following the rule book just the way they hate it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ghosts of 2016 loomed large .
It was around 10.30pm on election night 2020 that the jitters began to start with early results in from Florida that sent an all-too familiar chill across the nation .
Here we go again .
Buckle up , you ’ re in for a rough ride .
In Miami-Dade county , the area of southern Florida that is home to Cuban Americans , Biden ’ s numbers were notably soft .
They indicated that the barrage of misinformation that had been flung by the Trump campaign that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ night of socialism had stuck .
By 11.30pm that sinking feeling among Democrats that 2020 was in fact 2016 redux was intensifying .
Biden ’ s multiple pathways to the White House appeared to be narrowing with the unfolding loss of Florida and early results giving Trump the edge in states such as Georgia and North Carolina .
And then the inevitable happened .
Eyes turned – just as they did four years ago – to that trilogy of hope , fear and trepidation : Pennsylvania , Michigan and Wisconsin .
The so-called @ @ @ @ @ @ @ had been relying and that Trump brutally tore down .
Jake Tapper of CNN found himself giggling nervously as he said it , so surreal did the echo seem .
“ I do think we have been saying for a long time that anything could happen , that this is a very competitive race , and that it could come down to these three states.
” You could sense the cogs of recognition start to turn : it began with a yes .
“ Yes , Joe Biden still had a route to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was the ‘ red mirage ’ .
” Given the vast number of mailed ballots during the pandemic , his election night was always going to start looking grim but then brighten over time as the votes were counted .
You could see the pattern take shape in several of the key battleground states that could deliver him victory .
There was Wisconsin , where a Biden win was all but assured on Wednesday morning .
Michigan , that other rust belt state that gave Trump his 2016 victory that also swung from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on .
Georgia , where Biden initially looked to be flailing but was competitive again as morning came .
So yes .
Come the light of a new day , Biden was still looking potentially on track to take Trump ’ s place in the Oval Office .
Then Arizona was put in the Biden bag , opening up with its growing Latino population potential new vistas for a changing and renewed America .
With Georgia , a state that last backed a Democrat for president when Wayne ’ s World was in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s grasp , there were even reasons for them to be cheerful .
And then came the nos .
No , it was not meant to be like this .
That feeling of sickness in the pit of the stomach – that wasn ’ t meant to be there .
Not this time .
How could the contest have tightened so much that Trump too was also still in the running , hours into election night ?
Here was a president who had overseen the culling of more than 230,000 Americans by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
This was a man whose administration had ordered the cleaving of migrant children from their parents without bothering to ensure that they could find each other – three years later almost 600 are still separated .
Who was happy to see teargas fired at peaceful protesters so that he could get his photo op .
Who interpreted the founding principle of the nation , “ We the people ” , as “ We the white people ” .
Who regards the climate crisis as a hoax .
No .
This wasn ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ twitching was palpable among Democratic luminaries who took to the TV channels to proclaim their undying confidence in Biden .
James Carville , lead strategist for Bill Clinton when he won the White House in 1992 , put on a brave face on MSNBC .
“ To all you Democrats out there : put the razor blades and Ambien back in the cupboard , we are going to be fine , ” he said .
Then he brandished a bottle of vintage champagne at the camera , remarking : “ I don ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Friday .
I ’ ve waited four years for this , I can wait another four days.
” If only he hadn ’ t appeared on the same channel a few days earlier bragging that “ this thing is not going to be close ” and that he would be cracking that bottle open by 10.30pm .
It ’ s a wonder what a few hours ’ rest overnight can do for one ’ s perspective .
At midnight Claire McCaskill , former Democratic US senator from Missouri , was also displaying a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ just as had always been intended , she said .
Turning to the three blue firewall states that yet again hung in the balance , she said : “ Those three states will deliver the presidency for Joe Biden , just as was planned.
” By the morning , when she came on MSNBC a second time , her tone had turned more reflective .
She still believed that time was on Biden ’ s side and that patience would eventually prevail .
But she now added a darker assessment .
“ This @ @ @ @ @ @ @ said .
“ We can ’ t go back to assuming that Donald Trump is an outlier in terms of who he is and how he behaves .
He is connecting with a lot of Americans in ways that a lot of us find hard to understand , but we ’ ve got to get at it – because we have to bring this nation together if we want to remain a superpower.
” Bob Woodward , the veteran journalist of Watergate who extracted the admission from Trump that he had lied to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of coronavirus , also had some harsh words for Democrats .
“ In 2016 Trump came along and smashed up the old order in a very definitive way , ” he said .
“ If you want to know what ’ s happened in 2020 , Biden represented the old order .
The Democratic party has got to figure out how they change themselves.
” This election isn ’ t over till it ’ s over .
Joe Biden eventually took both Wisconsin and Michigan and may well yet be the next president @ @ @ @ @ @ @ postmortem over what happened has just begun .

It was the grand, carefully choreographed victory speech that Donald Trump never got to make in 2016. Hail to the Chief was playing in the background as the president took to the stage around 2am, a phalanx of Stars and Stripes at his back and in front of him a maskless crowd of progeny and devotees screaming “We love you!”
In 2016 Trump was so stunned by his own unexpected triumph that he looked quite taken aback. His victory speech was written in such a hurry it contained profuse praise for Hillary Clinton, the woman who had been subjected to chants of “lock her up”.
Having stumbled four years ago, Trump did it on Wednesday morning his way, amid the grandeur of the East Room of the White House. “Frankly, we did win this election,” he said, the room erupting in a frenzy of cheers.
It was a spectacle that spoke volumes about the man, and about the nation at this singularly damaged and dangerous moment in its 244-year history. An incumbent president declares victory even though he hasn’t won, then claims that fraud is being committed on the American public in the middle of an election that has seen the largest turnout of any presidential race in 120 years.
Democracy in Trumpland.
As the president was playing out his little victory fantasy, Democrats were going through their own version of hell. If the story of the night for Trump was about him pretending to have won just the way he liked it, for Joe Biden and his Democratic cohorts it was about dutifully following the rule book just the way they hate it.
For them, too, the ghosts of 2016 loomed large. It was around 10.30pm on election night 2020 that the jitters began to start with early results in from Florida that sent an all-too familiar chill across the nation.
Here we go again. Buckle up, you’re in for a rough ride.
Trump supporters cheer outside of the Versailles restaurant as they await the results of the election in Miami, Florida. Photograph: Joe Raedle/Getty Images
In Miami-Dade county, the area of southern Florida that is home to Cuban Americans, Biden’s numbers were notably soft. They indicated that the barrage of misinformation that had been flung by the Trump campaign that Biden was leading America into the dark night of socialism had stuck.
By 11.30pm that sinking feeling among Democrats that 2020 was in fact 2016 redux was intensifying. Biden’s multiple pathways to the White House appeared to be narrowing with the unfolding loss of Florida and early results giving Trump the edge in states such as Georgia and North Carolina.
And then the inevitable happened. Eyes turned – just as they did four years ago – to that trilogy of hope, fear and trepidation: Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.
The so-called “blue firewall” upon which Clinton had been relying and that Trump brutally tore down.
Jake Tapper of CNN found himself giggling nervously as he said it, so surreal did the echo seem. “I do think we have been saying for a long time that anything could happen, that this is a very competitive race, and that it could come down to these three states.”
You could sense the cogs of recognition start to turn: it began with a yes.
“Yes, Joe Biden still had a route to the presidency.”
“Yes, it was the ‘red mirage’.”
Given the vast number of mailed ballots during the pandemic, his election night was always going to start looking grim but then brighten over time as the votes were counted.
You could see the pattern take shape in several of the key battleground states that could deliver him victory. There was Wisconsin, where a Biden win was all but assured on Wednesday morning.
Michigan, that other rust belt state that gave Trump his 2016 victory that also swung from right to left as the night went on. Georgia, where Biden initially looked to be flailing but was competitive again as morning came.
Joe Biden speaks at a drive-in election night event as Dr Jill Biden looks on at the Chase Center in the early morning hours of Wednesday in Wilmington, Delaware. Photograph: Win McNamee/Getty Images
So yes. Come the light of a new day, Biden was still looking potentially on track to take Trump’s place in the Oval Office.
Then Arizona was put in the Biden bag, opening up with its growing Latino population potential new vistas for a changing and renewed America. With Georgia, a state that last backed a Democrat for president when Wayne’s World was in the cinemas, still looking within Biden’s grasp, there were even reasons for them to be cheerful.
And then came the nos. No, it was not meant to be like this. That feeling of sickness in the pit of the stomach – that wasn’t meant to be there. Not this time.
How could the contest have tightened so much that Trump too was also still in the running, hours into election night? Here was a president who had overseen the culling of more than 230,000 Americans by a microbe that other nations had contained.
This was a man whose administration had ordered the cleaving of migrant children from their parents without bothering to ensure that they could find each other – three years later almost 600 are still separated. Who was happy to see teargas fired at peaceful protesters so that he could get his photo op. Who interpreted the founding principle of the nation, “We the people”, as “We the white people”. Who regards the climate crisis as a hoax.
No. This wasn’t the plan.
By midnight the twitching was palpable among Democratic luminaries who took to the TV channels to proclaim their undying confidence in Biden. James Carville, lead strategist for Bill Clinton when he won the White House in 1992, put on a brave face on MSNBC.
“To all you Democrats out there: put the razor blades and Ambien back in the cupboard, we are going to be fine,” he said. Then he brandished a bottle of vintage champagne at the camera, remarking: “I don’t mind putting it on ice until Friday. I’ve waited four years for this, I can wait another four days.”
If only he hadn’t appeared on the same channel a few days earlier bragging that “this thing is not going to be close” and that he would be cracking that bottle open by 10.30pm.
Election workers count ballots on Wednesday in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Photograph: Spencer Platt/Getty Images
It’s a wonder what a few hours’ rest overnight can do for one’s perspective. At midnight Claire McCaskill, former Democratic US senator from Missouri, was also displaying a stoic face.
The night was transpiring just as had always been intended, she said. Turning to the three blue firewall states that yet again hung in the balance, she said: “Those three states will deliver the presidency for Joe Biden, just as was planned.”
By the morning, when she came on MSNBC a second time, her tone had turned more reflective. She still believed that time was on Biden’s side and that patience would eventually prevail.
But she now added a darker assessment. “This is a gut-check moment,” she said.
“We can’t go back to assuming that Donald Trump is an outlier in terms of who he is and how he behaves. He is connecting with a lot of Americans in ways that a lot of us find hard to understand, but we’ve got to get at it – because we have to bring this nation together if we want to remain a superpower.”
Bob Woodward, the veteran journalist of Watergate who extracted the admission from Trump that he had lied to the American people about the deadly nature of coronavirus, also had some harsh words for Democrats. “In 2016 Trump came along and smashed up the old order in a very definitive way,” he said.
“If you want to know what’s happened in 2020, Biden represented the old order. The Democratic party has got to figure out how they change themselves.”
This election isn’t over till it’s over. Joe Biden eventually took both Wisconsin and Michigan and may well yet be the next president of the United States. A bruising postmortem over what happened has just begun.


theguardian--2020-11-05--Will Trump's false election claims gain steam? Disinformation experts weigh in

Misinformation loves a vacuum , and the uncertainty around the outcome of the US presidential race has created a mighty one .
As election officials work to count ballots , Donald Trump and his allies have launched a campaign to cast doubt on the electoral process .
False declarations of victory and false allegations of fraud are being pumped into the information void , where their salacious narratives compete with the more prosaic reality that counting takes time .
We spoke with experts on disinformation about why people believe the false narratives Trump is pushing , what those people might @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s latest conspiracy theory might not catch on the way he hopes .
For months , Trump has seeded doubt about the legitimacy of mail-in ballots , laying the groundwork for the vague conspiracy theories about fraudulent ballots that he tweeted wildly about throughout the day Wednesday .
Trump ’ s claims are perfectly suited to people who share what Whitney Phillips , a professor of communications at Syracuse University , calls “ deep memetic frames ” or “ deeply , viscerally held stories about the world that shape what you think @ @ @ @ @ @ @ should be done in response ” .
One such frame is characterized by deep distrust of institutions and “ a general sense that there are people who are out to get people who look like us ” – such as the so-called “ Deep State ” .
This mindset has been prevalent in recent months amid the rise of QAnon and Covid-skeptic communities , Phillips said .
“ In some ways , the sensationalist child-eating , blood-drinking QAnon stuff distracts from the really corrosive part of the narrative , which is the idea @ @ @ @ @ @ @ all coming to get you , so you better go get your guns.
” Phillips views Trump ’ s failure to debunk or denounce conspiracy theories as preparations for selling this latest conspiracy theory .
“ In the past few months , Trump started using the deep state by name ; he started specifically engaging with and embracing QAnon , ” she said .
“ That underlying frame – ‘ don ’ t trust “ them ” ’ – was the groundwork for his efforts to contest the election.
” Notably , this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ We ’ re not talking about misinformation from the grassroots or foreign actors , said Alex Stamos , director of the Stanford Internet Observatory , at a Wednesday morning election debrief .
“ It ’ s known influencers.
” Among people who believe Trump ’ s false claims about election theft , there is likely to be a strong impetus to take action .
“ Anytime people feel that their rights are being taken from them , especially by the government , we do see widespread social unrest , ” said Joan @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s Shorenstein Center on Media , Politics and Public Policy .
Already , protesters have targeted the TFC Center in Detroit , demanding access to the office where ballots are being counted .
And worryingly , the American right does not have the same tradition of street protest that the political left does .
“ If you don ’ t have a robust repertoire of tactics as you ’ re heading into a street protest , then it becomes very appealing to use violence as the messenger , ” Donovan said .
“ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of paramilitary organizations and people who are supporters of the second amendment , who believe that a Democratic president would be coming for their guns .
We ’ re going to see a lot of those issues coalesce in the next few days.
” The role of the platforms Under intense pressure from the traditional news media , researchers and civil society , the social media platforms that long allowed Trump tremendous leeway to break their polices have taken a more aggressive stance toward his false claims about the election .
In the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Facebook began applying misinformation labels to some of Trump ’ s false statements , and Facebook even expanded its policy on premature declaration of victory on Wednesday – an uncommonly quick response from a company that tends to dig in its heels when facing criticism from the press .
The labels are by no means a panacea .
“ For people behind a certain frame , a label on a tweet is just more evidence that there ’ s censorship , ” said Phillips .
Stamos also noted that the lack of lasting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for repeat offenders has created a reverse incentive for certain influencers .
“ They seem to enjoy being punished , ” he said .
“ It ’ s part of their brand now.
” While Trump is certainly pushing the false idea of a stolen election , and while some of his supporters are deeply susceptible to believing that narrative , it ’ s still unclear if the narrative will take hold more broadly .
“ In order to do disinformation well , you have to have a few key elements , ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ online cavalry ready to troll .
The second is either key figures or key evidence that allow you to make your claim .
The third thing is the claim has to be very straightforward and people have to have something to circulate.
” While various videos and photos have emerged as supposed “ proof ” of fraud , they have all been debunked by fact-checkers and none appear ready for prime time – the fourth element of a successful disinformation campaign .
“ To really break out , you need the megaphone of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ On election night , Fox News declined to validate Trump ’ s conspiracy theory and instead hewed generally to evidence-based projections .
“ The Maga coalition that brought Trump ’ s presidency into being has been fractured , ” Donovan added .
“ The tale of the tape is going to be if Fox News calls it for Biden ahead of other outlets or in line with other major news outlets .
If they are not on board with Trump ’ s challenges ideologically and in terms of evidence , then Trump is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ battle in terms of controlling the narrative of who won .
”

Misinformation loves a vacuum, and the uncertainty around the outcome of the US presidential race has created a mighty one. As election officials work to count ballots, Donald Trump and his allies have launched a campaign to cast doubt on the electoral process. False declarations of victory and false allegations of fraud are being pumped into the information void, where their salacious narratives compete with the more prosaic reality that counting takes time.
We spoke with experts on disinformation about why people believe the false narratives Trump is pushing, what those people might do in response, and why Trump’s latest conspiracy theory might not catch on the way he hopes.
The big lie
For months, Trump has seeded doubt about the legitimacy of mail-in ballots, laying the groundwork for the vague conspiracy theories about fraudulent ballots that he tweeted wildly about throughout the day on Wednesday.
Trump’s claims are perfectly suited to people who share what Whitney Phillips, a professor of communications at Syracuse University, calls “deep memetic frames” or “deeply, viscerally held stories about the world that shape what you think to be true and what you think should be done in response”. One such frame is characterized by deep distrust of institutions and “a general sense that there are people who are out to get people who look like us” – such as the so-called “deep state”.
That underlying frame – ‘don’t trust “them”’ – was the groundwork for his efforts to contest the election Whitney Phillips, Syracuse University
This mindset has been prevalent in recent months amid the rise of QAnon and Covid-skeptic communities, Phillips said. “In some ways, the sensationalist child-eating, blood-drinking QAnon stuff distracts from the really corrosive part of the narrative, which is the idea that liberals, scientists and Jews are all coming to get you, so you better go get your guns.”
Phillips views Trump’s failure to debunk or denounce conspiracy theories as preparations for selling this latest conspiracy theory. “In the past few months, Trump started using the deep state by name; he started specifically engaging with and embracing QAnon,” she said. “That underlying frame – ‘don’t trust “them”’ – was the groundwork for his efforts to contest the election.”
Notably, this disinformation effort remains a top-down approach. “We’re not talking about misinformation from the grassroots or foreign actors, said Alex Stamos, director of the Stanford Internet Observatory, at a Wednesday morning election debrief. “It’s known influencers.”
Online to offline
Among people who believe Trump’s false claims about election theft, there is likely to be a strong impetus to take action. “Anytime people feel that their rights are being taken from them, especially by the government, we do see widespread social unrest,” said Joan Donovan, research director at Harvard’s Shorenstein Center on Media, Politics and Public Policy.
Already, protesters have targeted the TFC Center in Detroit, demanding access to the office where ballots are being counted. And worryingly, the American right does not have the same tradition of street protest that the political left does.
“If you don’t have a robust repertoire of tactics as you’re heading into a street protest, then it becomes very appealing to use violence as the messenger,” Donovan said. “It does tend to enliven the spirit of paramilitary organizations and people who are supporters of the second amendment, who believe that a Democratic president would be coming for their guns. We’re going to see a lot of those issues coalesce in the next few days.”
The role of the platforms
Under intense pressure from the traditional news media, researchers and civil society, the social media platforms that long allowed Trump tremendous leeway to break their polices have taken a more aggressive stance toward his false claims about the election. In the run-up to the election, Twitter and Facebook began applying misinformation labels to some of Trump’s false statements, and Facebook even expanded its policy on premature declaration of victory on Wednesday – an uncommonly quick response from a company that tends to dig in its heels when facing criticism from the press.
The labels are by no means a panacea. “For people behind a certain frame, a label on a tweet is just more evidence that there’s censorship,” said Phillips. Stamos also noted that the lack of lasting punishments (like suspensions or bans) for repeat offenders has created a reverse incentive for certain influencers. “They seem to enjoy being punished,” he said. “It’s part of their brand now.”
Losing the megaphone
While Trump is certainly pushing the false idea of a stolen election, and while some of his supporters are deeply susceptible to believing that narrative, it’s still unclear if the narrative will take hold more broadly.
“In order to do disinformation well, you have to have a few key elements,” said Donovan. “One is an online cavalry ready to troll. The second is either key figures or key evidence that allow you to make your claim. The third thing is the claim has to be very straightforward and people have to have something to circulate.”
While various videos and photos have emerged as supposed “proof” of fraud, they have all been debunked by factcheckers and none appear ready for prime time – the fourth element of a successful disinformation campaign. “To really break out, you need the megaphone of conservative media,” Donovan said.
On election night, Fox News declined to validate Trump’s conspiracy theory and instead hewed generally to evidence-based projections. “The Maga coalition that brought Trump’s presidency into being has been fractured,” Donovan added. “The tale of the tape is going to be if Fox News calls it for Biden ahead of other outlets or in line with other major news outlets. If they are not on board with Trump’s challenges ideologically and in terms of evidence, then Trump is going to have a really big uphill battle in terms of controlling the narrative of who won.”


theguardian--2020-11-05--Election fight: a divided US takes to the streets as the count goes on – in pictures

Protesters turned out in cities across the US for the second night while votes are still being counted for the @ @ @ @ @ to US election victory : what Trump and Biden need to win • Trump v @ @ @ @ @ they come in • Senate and House elections – full results as they come in

Protesters turned out in cities across the country for the third day while votes are still being counted for the 2020 presidential election


theguardian--2020-11-05--Election night in New York City: anxiety, uncertainty and empty streets

New York City prepared for the final act of the most consequential election in a generation on Tuesday .
There was reason to worry .
During the city ’ s 10 days of early voting , many of the 1.1 million New Yorkers were forced to spend large parts of the day in socially distant lines that stretched across multiple city blocks – including some who had decided to vote in person after a mail-in ballot snafu .
Even the mayor waited almost four hours , after which he and the governor suggested a complete overhaul of the board of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , along with the rest of the country , prepared for potential confrontations .
On Monday , a parade of Trump supporters shut down traffic on the Mario Cuomo Bridge north of the city , and after a summer of massive demonstrations against police violence , businesses weren ’ t taking any chances .
Across the boroughs , they boarded up their windows with plywood that was tagged with “ still open ” signs and political messages .
And then there was the pandemic .
With many older , veteran poll workers uneasy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the board hoped it would have enough new recruits to open sites on time , manage the city ’ s relatively new voting technology , and accommodate a surge of voters on par with the national turnout rates for early voting .
But that wave never materialized at PS 38 , a small polling site in an elementary school in Boerum Hill .
After a short-lived morning rush when the doors opened , a little after 5am , the flow of people slowed to a trickle for the rest of the day .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ that this process is still intact , ” said one man as a poll worker put an “ I Voted ” sticker on the back of his wheelchair .
Others weren ’ t so sure what to expect .
A few dozen voters at the precinct made mistakes on their ballots and were issued new ballots , while others asked questions on how to fill in the bubbles .
Some were new to the process .
“ I ’ m 60 years old and just voted for the first time , ” said @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
“ I feel like an American for the first time.
” At least for the day , poll workers were the city ’ s new heroes of choice .
Companies offered them free food and perks , and voters were vocal with their gratitude .
“ Thank you , ” an older woman yelled across the cafeteria turned voting center as PS 38 .
“ Thank you everyone for being here .
This is important.
” Just before 9pm , the closing time for sites in New York state , two voters @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and left .
After 16 hours , PS had served just 364 voters ( roughly 23 an hour ) , and workers at other sites across the city – District 20 Pre-K Center in Borough Park , PS 132 in Williamsburg , Julia Richmond Education Center on the Upper East Side – reported similarly slow days .
It appeared that voters had gotten two messages .
The first , from the board of elections , was to vote early or absentee as a way to avoid the chaos on election day .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ the media and certain campaigns , was not to expect results anytime soon .
As night fell , things were quiet .
Though the pandemic prevented the kind of raucous watch parties that Democrats held at the Javits Center four years ago , crowds were difficult to find even outside .
Except for a few diehards , including two men dressed in American flag onesies , Times Square was largely abandoned , as was Union Square , in Manhattan .
Barclays Center , a focal point for the Black Lives Matter protests , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ day but was totally barren after the polls closed .
For New Yorkers waking up this morning – or those who never went to sleep – the races for local politicians were already settled .
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez , arguably the city ’ s most famous name on the ballot this year , easily won her race , as did Ritchie Torres , a New York city council member who becomes the first Black and openly gay member of Congress , representing the South Bronx .
But there was still little clarity as to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ early afternoon , several outlets realized that they had relied on inaccurate data out of Nevada , leaving many more votes to be counted .
And immediately following the announcement that Joe Biden had won Wisconsin , the Trump campaign vowed to ask for a recount , which is highly unlikely to flip the outcome but further prolongs the uncertainty .
So for now , New York continues to wait .
On Staten Island , the only borough to vote for Trump ( and with a significant margin of 62 % -38 % @ @ @ @ @ @ @ support for the Republican candidate .
In a parking lot , one man sold the kind of merchandise that ’ s become synonymous with the Trump campaign , and elsewhere , a truck drove with a “ Make Liberals Cry Again ” flag , a riff on the President ’ s “ Make America great again ” slogan .
As the sun set though , Republicans ’ chances to stay in the White House dimmed .
After Wisconsin earlier in the day , Michigan became the latest state projected to go for Joe @ @ @ @ @ @ @ counting its ballots tonight , and should they continue breaking for the Democratic candidate by wide margins , the election could be over before daybreak , with potential victories still possible in Nevada , North Carolina , and Georgia .

Spenser Mestel with photography by Jordan Gale and George Etheredge

New York City prepared for the final act of the most consequential election in a generation on Tuesday. There was reason to worry.
During the city’s 10 days of early voting, many of the 1.1 million New Yorkers were forced to spend large parts of the day in socially distant lines that stretched across multiple city blocks – including some who had decided to vote in person after a mail-in ballot snafu. Even the mayor waited almost four hours, after which he and the governor suggested a complete overhaul of the board of elections.
A couple vote at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn. Photograph: Jordan Gale/The Guardian
Groups of musicians march between polling locations outside the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York on 3 November. Photographs by Jordan Gale/The Guardian Groups of musicians march between polling locations outside the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York, on election day. Photos by Jordan Gale/The Guardian
In addition, the city, along with the rest of the country, prepared for potential confrontations. On Monday, a parade of Trump supporters shut down traffic on the Mario Cuomo Bridge north of the city, and after a summer of massive demonstrations against police violence, businesses weren’t taking any chances. Across the boroughs, they boarded up their windows with plywood that was tagged with “still open” signs and political messages.
And then there was the pandemic. With many older, veteran poll workers uneasy about reporting for duty this year, the board hoped it would have enough new recruits to open sites on time, manage the city’s relatively new voting technology, and accommodate a surge of voters on par with the national turnout rates for early voting.
But that wave never materialized at PS 38, a small polling site in an elementary school in Boerum Hill. After a short-lived morning rush when the doors opened, a little after 5am, the flow of people slowed to a trickle for the rest of the day. “I’m completely fucking flabbergasted that this process is still intact,” said one man as a poll worker put an “I Voted” sticker on the back of his wheelchair.
People wait for results in Times Square. Photograph: Jordan Gale/The Guardian
Others weren’t so sure what to expect. A few dozen voters at the precinct made mistakes on their ballots and were issued new ballots, while others asked questions on how to fill in the bubbles. Some were new to the process. “I’m 60 years old and just voted for the first time,” said a man as he left the site. “I feel like an American for the first time.”
At least for the day, poll workers were the city’s new heroes of choice. Companies offered them free food and perks, and voters were vocal with their gratitude. “Thank you,” an older woman yelled across the cafeteria turned voting center as PS 38. “Thank you everyone for being here. This is important.”
Just before 9pm, the closing time for sites in New York state, two voters jogged into the site, voted quickly, and left. After 16 hours, PS had served just 364 voters (roughly 23 an hour), and workers at other sites across the city – District 20 Pre-K Center in Borough Park, PS 132 in Williamsburg, Julia Richmond Education Center on the Upper East Side – reported similarly slow days.
People watch election results at the Winslow in Manhattan, New York. Photograph: Jordan Gale/The Guardian
It appeared that voters had gotten two messages. The first, from the board of elections, was to vote early or absentee as a way to avoid the chaos on election day. The second, broadcast almost incessantly by the media and certain campaigns, was not to expect results anytime soon.
As night fell, things were quiet. Though the pandemic prevented the kind of raucous watch parties that Democrats held at the Javits Center four years ago, crowds were difficult to find even outside.
Except for a few diehards, including two men dressed in American flag onesies, Times Square was largely abandoned, as was Union Square, in Manhattan. Barclays Center, a focal point for the Black Lives Matter protests, saw a small march earlier in the day but was totally barren after the polls closed.
The morning after
Trump Tower on the day after the presidential election. Photograph: George Etheredge/The Guardian
For New Yorkers waking up this morning – or those who never went to sleep – the races for local politicians were already settled. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, arguably the city’s most famous name on the ballot this year, easily won her race, as did Ritchie Torres, a New York city council member who becomes the first Black and openly gay member of Congress, representing the South Bronx.
Left: the Fox News building on the day after the presidential election. Right: an ‘I Voted’ sticker at Times Square. Photographs by George Etheredge/The Guardian Midtown Manhattan was eerily quiet the morning after the presidential election, with the exception of a notable police presence. Photographs by George Etheredge/The Guardian
But there was still little clarity as to who would become president. In the early afternoon, several outlets realized that they had relied on inaccurate data out of Nevada, leaving many more votes to be counted. And immediately following the announcement that Joe Biden had won Wisconsin, the Trump campaign vowed to ask for a recount, which is highly unlikely to flip the outcome but further prolongs the uncertainty. So for now, New York continues to wait.
Times Square on the day after the election. Photograph: George Etheredge/The Guardian
Police officers along Sixth Avenue on the day after the presidential election. Photograph: George Etheredge/The Guardian
An afternoon filled with uncertainty
A Trump flag hangs on a home in Staten Island. Photograph: George Etheredge/The Guardian
On Staten Island, the only borough to vote for Trump (and with a significant margin of 62%-38%), residents held steady in their support for the Republican candidate.
Trump signs on Staten Island. Trump signs on Staten Island.
Daniel Cepeda, 21, poses for a portrait with his flag on Staten Island. Photograph: George Etheredge/The Guardian
In a parking lot, one man sold the kind of merchandise that’s become synonymous with the Trump campaign, and elsewhere, a truck drove with a “Make Liberals Cry Again” flag, a riff on the President’s “Make America great again” slogan. As the sun set though, Republicans’ chances to stay in the White House dimmed.
After Wisconsin earlier in the day, Michigan became the latest state projected to go for Joe Biden. If Pennsylvania were to finish counting its ballots tonight, and should they continue breaking for the Democratic candidate by wide margins, the election could be over before daybreak, with potential victories still possible in Nevada, North Carolina, and Georgia.


theguardian--2020-11-04--Regardless of the US presidential election outcome, Trumpism lives on

When all the votes are counted , the presidential election may deliver defeat for Donald Trump .
But it did not deliver defeat for Trumpism .
Democrats had hoped that four years of turmoil , attacks on norms and institutions and mendacity – plus a pandemic that cost 230,000 lives – would result in a quick , clean and overwhelming repudiation of the 45th president .
That would have been clarifying about the direction of the country , a warning to the Republican party that it must take its 2013 “ autopsy ” report off the shelf and reinvent itself @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pollsters , it did not turn out that way .
Trump proved resilient and increased his vote in Florida , Texas and other states .
He found even more white working-class voters than last time and chipped away at Democratic support among Latinos .
His cult-of-personality campaign rallies were as enthusiastic and rambunctious as ever .
His victory in 2016 , it turns out , was no fluke attributable to Vladimir Putin or James Comey .
In 2020 his sexism , racism and lie-telling have been legitimised and emboldened .
When some Americans @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are ” , Trump voters replied : “ This is exactly who we are – and we ’ re not going anywhere.
” “ The so-called moral outrage around Trump ’ s presidency did not produce any substantive shift in his Republican support , ” tweeted Eddie Glaude , a professor at Princeton University and author of Democracy in Black .
“ In fact , he expanded his base among white voters .
Trump continues to flourish in the intersection of greed , selfishness and racism.
” Now , if Trump wins the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Trump loses the election , Trumpism wins too .
A sense of grievance over a narrow defeat , fuelled by the president ’ s bogus claims of fraud and amplified by conservative media , will thrive again a Democratic president .
The “ Make America Great Again ” movement – with its nostalgia for a country that never was – was built for opposition rather than incumbency .
There ’ s more , Republicans appear to be on course to hold their Senate majority and may end up gaining seats in the House @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Senate majority leader , and Lindsey Graham were rewarded , not punished , for normalising Trump and enforcing his will .
The message to other Republican aspirants is clear .
This is Trump ’ s party now .
Furthermore , McConnell would prove an implacable foe to a President Biden .
The majority leader memorably declared that his top priority was to make sure Barack Obama was a one-term president .
He failed in that but proved a master of obstruction .
Now he is likely to repeat the formula with the man @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for eight years .
It is precisely the opposite of what America needs right now : a White House , Senate and House working together and thinking big like Franklin Roosevelt to tackle the pandemic , rebuild the economy and reform healthcare .
Instead , expect more gridlock as a Democratic White House is parried at every turn by a Trump-fuelled Republican Senate majority .
It is frustration with that type of dysfunction that fed the forces of Trumpism in the first place .
The president continues to present himself as an outsider @ @ @ @ @ @ @ draining the swamp .
Expect also a fusillade of attacks on Biden and scaremongering about what it would mean if he is succeeded by his running mate , Kamala Harris , a woman of colour .
That will fire up the base even more .
There was a school of thought that a crushing defeat for the Republican party , perhaps even in Texas , would be the best thing that could happen to it , the mother of all wake-up calls .
But there was also a theory that – whatever the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Republican party ’ s bones , and it would take two or three elections to purge it .
Now , indeed , the party is clearly committed to his strain of raw populist nationalism , overthrowing the old consensus on trade , immigration and other issues .
Likely candidates for 2024 ?
Don ’ t rule out Donald Trump Jr. Or , for that matter , Donald Trump himself .

When all the votes are counted, the presidential election may deliver defeat for Donald Trump. But it did not deliver defeat for Trumpism.
Democrats had hoped that four years of turmoil, attacks on norms and institutions and mendacity – plus a pandemic that cost 230,000 lives – would result in a quick, clean and overwhelming repudiation of the 45th president.
That would have been clarifying about the direction of the country, a warning to the Republican party that it must take its 2013 “autopsy” report off the shelf and reinvent itself.
But on another miserable night for pollsters, it did not turn out that way. Trump proved resilient and increased his vote in Florida, Texas and other states. He found even more white working-class voters than last time and chipped away at Democratic support among Latinos. His cult-of-personality campaign rallies were as enthusiastic and rambunctious as ever.
His victory in 2016, it turns out, was no fluke attributable to Vladimir Putin or James Comey. In 2020 his sexism, racism and lie-telling have been legitimised and emboldened.
When some Americans protested “This is not who we are”, Trump voters replied: “This is exactly who we are – and we’re not going anywhere.”
“The so-called moral outrage around Trump’s presidency did not produce any substantive shift in his Republican support,” tweeted Eddie Glaude, a professor at Princeton University and author of Democracy in Black. “In fact, he expanded his base among white voters. Trump continues to flourish in the intersection of greed, selfishness and racism.”
Now, if Trump wins the election, Trumpism wins. But if Trump loses the election, Trumpism wins too.
A sense of grievance over a narrow defeat, fuelled by the president’s bogus claims of fraud and amplified by conservative media, will thrive again a Democratic president. The “Make America Great Again” movement – with its nostalgia for a country that never was – was built for opposition rather than incumbency.
There’s more, Republicans appear to be on course to hold their Senate majority and may end up gaining seats in the House of Representatives. Mitch McConnell, the Senate majority leader, and Lindsey Graham were rewarded, not punished, for normalising Trump and enforcing his will. The message to other Republican aspirants is clear. This is Trump’s party now.
Trump supporters rally in Miami, Florida, on Tuesday. Photograph: Eva Marie Uzcategui/AFP/Getty Images
Furthermore, McConnell would prove an implacable foe to a President Biden. The majority leader memorably declared that his top priority was to make sure Barack Obama was a one-term president. He failed in that but proved a master of obstruction.
Now he is likely to repeat the formula with the man who served as Obama’s vice-president for eight years. It is precisely the opposite of what America needs right now: a White House, Senate and House working together and thinking big like Franklin Roosevelt to tackle the pandemic, rebuild the economy and reform healthcare.
Instead, expect more gridlock as a Democratic White House is parried at every turn by a Trump-fuelled Republican Senate majority. It is frustration with that type of dysfunction that fed the forces of Trumpism in the first place. The president continues to present himself as an outsider intent on shaking up the system and draining the swamp.
Expect also a fusillade of attacks on Biden and scaremongering about what it would mean if he is succeeded by his running mate, Kamala Harris, a woman of colour. That will fire up the base even more.
There was a school of thought that a crushing defeat for the Republican party, perhaps even in Texas, would be the best thing that could happen to it, the mother of all wake-up calls.
But there was also a theory that – whatever the outcome – Trumpism was deep in the Republican party’s bones, and it would take two or three elections to purge it. Now, indeed, the party is clearly committed to his strain of raw populist nationalism, overthrowing the old consensus on trade, immigration and other issues.
Likely candidates for 2024? Don’t rule out Donald Trump Jr. Or, for that matter, Donald Trump himself.


theguardian--2020-11-04--'Truly remarkable': Arizona activists celebrate as conservative stalwart shifts blue

Ten years ago in Arizona , a night like 3 November 2020 would have seemed impossible .
Back then , the conservative stalwart of the south-west was not just a state with strong Republican leadership on almost every level – it was a state whose staunch anti-immigration stance would go on to shape policy in the party for years to come , and would gain a reputation as the birthplace of Trumpism .
A Republican super-majority state legislature had passed SB1070 , a law requiring local law enforcement to ask for proof of legal immigration status from anyone deemed suspicious @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Donald Trump of Maricopa county before Donald Trump became the Donald Trump he is today – was not just in power , he seemed near untouchable .
“ We would host know-your-rights sessions , with backyards full of over a hundred people because there was so much fear , ” said Alejandra Gomez , co-executive director of advocacy group Living United for Change in Arizona ( Lucha ) .
“ There were literally checkpoints that we would have to go monitor that Sheriff Arpaio put in common intersections .
There were phone @ @ @ @ @ @ @ each other heads up of when Arpaio and his posse were going to be there.
” Gomez smiled .
“ We don ’ t have that any more .
And that ’ s because of the resistance of Arizona and the strategic calculations that this community has made.
” On Tuesday , Arizona began to shift blue .
While a number of ballots remained to be counted , the Associated Press called the race for Joe Biden , who was leading by 5 percentage points , saying that the remaining ballots would not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ gap to victory in Arizona .
With 99 % of precincts reporting , Democratic candidate Mark Kelly leads Republican Martha McSally with 52.63 % of the vote in the race for John McCain ’ s former senate seat .
Alongside Democrat Kyrsten Sinema , who won her US Senate seat in 2018 , this marks the first time Arizona would have two sitting Democrats in the US chamber in a lifetime .
The state legislature is also expected to flip to a Democratic majority in both chambers for the first time since 1966 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ races than previously hoped .
“ In 10 years , we went from a super-majority Republican state , and now , in 2020 , we ’ re going to flip the legislature to a majority blue , our electoral votes will be a deciding factor in electing Joe Biden , and we are going to have not one , but two United State senate seats going out to Washington DC to represent our voices , ” said Democratic state representative Athena Salman , who won her re-election bid Tuesday .
“ It is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ living in this state right now.
” But Tuesday was no fluke .
It was the culmination of more than 10 years of tireless boots-on-the-ground organizing , campaigning , marching , protesting and door-knocking .
It was never about politics for these organizers and activists .
It was never about Republican or Democrat , red state or blue state , conservative or liberal .
“ This was not a state where you got involved in politics because you wanted to do work in politics , ” said Tomas Robles , co-executive director of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ wasn ’ t about attaching ourselves to a political party .
In 2010 , both political parties deserted us .
There were Democrats who did not vote against SB1070 , folks who did not even bother showing up.
” For them , it was a fight for their lives .
It was a fight to keep families together , to prevent the deportation of loved ones , the criminalization of an entire race .
“ The 10 years of this , it ’ s a sign that Arizona is moving in the direction @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Robles said .
“ You have eight-year-olds who experienced the heartbreak of watching their families stand there in fear because of SB1070 .
They ’ re now 18-year-old voters .
You have a ton of people that have grown up experiencing what it is to organize and what it is to build collective political power in a state that used to have none of it.
” In the pandemic , 90 % of the members of Unite Here Local 11 , a union representing predominantly Latinx and immigrant hospitality workers in southern California @ @ @ @ @ @ @ So instead , they took to the streets , knocking on doors to campaign for Biden and Kelly , sometimes in the sweltering 120-degree Fahrenheit Arizona heat .
In July , union organizers met with epidemiologists specifically to find ways for their members and volunteers to safely continue knocking on doors .
Since then , they estimated that they ’ ve knocked on 800,000 doors and had at least 250,000 conversations .
“ People know , ” said Unite Here Local 11 co-president Susan Minato .
“ They ’ re not stupid .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ negative things going on and our country is way worse than it was before Trump started .
That ’ s why people are here .
There are children today , 550 of them , who are in cages .
No one even knows who they are , who their parents are .
They were taken from their parents arms .
If we live in a country where that can happen , then anything can happen .
“ If people know that in their gut , then they ’ re here in the heat @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from their own children and loved ones temporarily , they ’ re here knocking on the doors of strangers in a pandemic , and they ’ re loving it because they know this is how we save our country.
” Local organizers and activists have much to celebrate after Tuesday .
Beyond the wins , beyond turning Arizona blue , the state saw historic youth and Latinx voter turnout , they said .
But they ’ re also already looking ahead .
Minato noted that they have just two years to go before @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Robles pointed out that winning the election is just half the battle .
“ This is a marker in a very long marathon , ” Robles said .
“ We ’ re going to have to prepare our members and prepare our leaders and also prepare our elected officials that our voters put in those seats .
Election Day is just when you get the job .
The job has only just begun .
We ’ re ready and prepared to deal with whoever is in charge with crafting policy that will affect @ @ @ @

Ten years ago in Arizona, a night like 3 November 2020 would have seemed impossible.
Back then, the conservative stalwart of the south-west was not just a state with strong Republican leadership on almost every level – it was a state whose staunch anti-immigration stance would go on to shape policy in the party for years to come, and would gain a reputation as the birthplace of Trumpism.
A Republican super-majority state legislature had passed SB1070, a law requiring local law enforcement to ask for proof of legal immigration status from anyone deemed suspicious. Hardline anti-immigration sheriff Joe Arpaio – the Donald Trump of Maricopa county before Donald Trump became the Donald Trump he is today – was not just in power, he seemed near untouchable.
“We would host know-your-rights sessions, with backyards full of over a hundred people because there was so much fear,” said Alejandra Gomez, co-executive director of advocacy group Living United for Change in Arizona (Lucha). “There were literally checkpoints that we would have to go monitor that Sheriff Arpaio put in common intersections. There were phone trees that the community had to give each other heads up of when Arpaio and his posse were going to be there.”
Gomez smiled. “We don’t have that any more. And that’s because of the resistance of Arizona and the strategic calculations that this community has made.”
On Tuesday, Arizona began to shift blue. While a number of ballots remained to be counted, the Associated Press called the race for Joe Biden, who was leading by 5 percentage points, saying that the remaining ballots would not be enough for Trump to close the gap to victory in Arizona. With 99% of precincts reporting, Democratic candidate Mark Kelly leads Republican Martha McSally with 52.63% of the vote in the race for John McCain’s former senate seat. Alongside Democrat Kyrsten Sinema, who won her US Senate seat in 2018, this marks the first time Arizona would have two sitting Democrats in the US chamber in a lifetime. The state legislature is also expected to flip to a Democratic majority in both chambers for the first time since 1966, though with narrower margins in some races than previously hoped.
01:50 Mark Kelly on Senate win in Arizona: 'Tonight is about getting to work' – video
Q&A How will the Guardian report US election results? Show Though most people will probably be watching the results of the race for the White House, more than 7,000 elections took place across the US on 3 November. In the age of disinformation, it is more important than ever that media outlets report election results as clearly and transparently as possible. The Guardian will be using data collected and analysed by the Associated Press (AP) as the source for when we will call election results for the presidency, Senate, House races and others. AP has a team of thousands of specialists and correspondents across America, who have trusted relationships with local officials. This will guide their data-led assessment of when it's time to call a race. There are a number of other highly reputable election "decision desks" in US media. They may call races earlier than AP. While the Guardian will report this is happening, we will rely on AP's data to make our own final call. Should any candidate declare victory prematurely, we will report this claim, but make clear that it is not valid. The only measure of victory is a complete count of all outstanding ballots. Was this helpful? Thank you for your feedback.
“In 10 years, we went from a super-majority Republican state, and now, in 2020, we’re going to flip the legislature to a majority blue, our electoral votes will be a deciding factor in electing Joe Biden, and we are going to have not one, but two United State senate seats going out to Washington DC to represent our voices,” said Democratic state representative Athena Salman, who won her re-election bid Tuesday.
“It is truly remarkable and so exciting to be living in this state right now.”
But Tuesday was no fluke. It was the culmination of more than 10 years of tireless boots-on-the-ground organizing, campaigning, marching, protesting and door-knocking.
It was never about politics for these organizers and activists. It was never about Republican or Democrat, red state or blue state, conservative or liberal.
“This was not a state where you got involved in politics because you wanted to do work in politics,” said Tomas Robles, co-executive director of Lucha. “For us, it wasn’t about attaching ourselves to a political party. In 2010, both political parties deserted us. There were Democrats who did not vote against SB1070, folks who did not even bother showing up.”
For them, it was a fight for their lives. It was a fight to keep families together, to prevent the deportation of loved ones, the criminalization of an entire race.
“The 10 years of this, it’s a sign that Arizona is moving in the direction that we envisioned since 2010,” Robles said. “You have eight-year-olds who experienced the heartbreak of watching their families stand there in fear because of SB1070. They’re now 18-year-old voters. You have a ton of people that have grown up experiencing what it is to organize and what it is to build collective political power in a state that used to have none of it.”
In the pandemic, 90% of the members of Unite Here Local 11, a union representing predominantly Latinx and immigrant hospitality workers in southern California and Arizona, lost their jobs. So instead, they took to the streets, knocking on doors to campaign for Biden and Kelly, sometimes in the sweltering 120-degree Fahrenheit Arizona heat.
You have people that have grown up experiencing what it is to organize, and what it is to build political power Tomas Robles
In July, union organizers met with epidemiologists specifically to find ways for their members and volunteers to safely continue knocking on doors. Since then, they estimated that they’ve knocked on 800,000 doors and had at least 250,000 conversations.
“People know,” said Unite Here Local 11 co-president Susan Minato. “They’re not stupid. They know there are a lot of negative things going on and our country is way worse than it was before Trump started. That’s why people are here. There are children today, 550 of them, who are in cages. No one even knows who they are, who their parents are. They were taken from their parents arms. If we live in a country where that can happen, then anything can happen.
“If people know that in their gut, then they’re here in the heat, they’re here, separated from their own children and loved ones temporarily, they’re here knocking on the doors of strangers in a pandemic, and they’re loving it because they know this is how we save our country.”
Local organizers and activists have much to celebrate after Tuesday. Beyond the wins, beyond turning Arizona blue, the state saw historic youth and Latinx voter turnout, they said.
“Tonight, we claim victory. We claim victory because we were told that Latinos don’t show up. And we showed up.” @LUCHA_AZ pic.twitter.com/VMpnhw5vym — Vivian Ho (@VivianHo) November 4, 2020
But they’re also already looking ahead. Minato noted that they have just two years to go before the governor’s race. And Robles pointed out that winning the election is just half the battle.
“This is a marker in a very long marathon,” Robles said. “We’re going to have to prepare our members and prepare our leaders and also prepare our elected officials that our voters put in those seats. Election Day is just when you get the job. The job has only just begun. We’re ready and prepared to deal with whoever is in charge with crafting policy that will affect our families.”