theguardian--2020-02-03--'We must defeat Trump': Democrats make final appeals as Iowa prepares to vote

After more than a year of ideological clashes and policy debates , voters in the midwestern state of Iowa are set to have their say on which Democratic presidential candidate they believe is best positioned to defeat Donald Trump in November ’ s election .
Hundreds of thousands of Iowans will gather in high school gymnasiums , local libraries and church basements on Monday night to participate in the Iowa caucuses , the first official nominating contest of the 2020 primary race .
Recent polling has provided a consistent snapshot in the closing weeks of a tight race with no @ @ @ @ @ @ @ remaining Democratic candidates are knotted together at the top – former vice-president Joe Biden , Vermont senator Bernie Sanders , Massachusetts senator Elizabeth Warren and former mayor Pete Buttigieg – and more than half of caucus-goers say they are still open to changing their minds .
Iowans famously take this responsibility seriously , and since 2000 , every Democratic winner of the Iowa caucuses has gone on to win the party ’ s nomination .
But the prospect of four more years of a president Democratic voters view as singularly dangerous has added @ @ @ @ @ @ @ reward one candidate – or possibly multiple – an early advantage as they compete in primaries across the rest of the nation .
After a yearlong leadup shaped by ideological clashes and a contest of ideas over issues of healthcare , climate change and income inequality , the leading candidates spent the weekend crisscrossing the state to make their final appeals .
“ I respectfully suggest , not because I ’ m running , but because of the man who ’ s president , you ’ ve never had a greater responsibility than @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a crowd of more than a thousand people his at his final campaign rally on Sunday in a Des Moines middle school gym .
Biden has pitched himself as a steady pair of hands and the strongest choice against Trump , a view that polling suggests is shared by a large constituency of Democrats , particularly among African American voters who play a critical role in later primary contests .
But he faces competition for moderate voters from Buttigieg , the 38-year-old former mayor of South Bend , Indiana , who has risen @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the field .
“ In looking at the lessons of history , our party wins when we have a nominee who is looking to the future , ” Buttigieg told reporters in English – and in French – on Saturday drawing a thinly veiled distinction between himself and the rest of the leading candidates , all of whom are older than 70 .
Warren , a former public school teacher and Harvard law professor turned senator , has pitched herself as an unabashed liberal with an arsenal of detailed policy proposals for “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ recent days she ’ s sought to emphasize what her allies argue is her unique capacity to unite and excite Democrats from both ideological factions as she also confronts doubts that a woman can beat Trump .
“ We will – we must – come together as a party and defeat Donald Trump , ” Warren told voters at a gymnasium in Cedar Rapids .
“ And I ’ ve got a plan for that.
” On Saturday night , Sanders , whose 2016 presidential campaign helped reshape the policy debate on the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Rapids with musical guest star Vampire Weekend .
The event drew more than 3,000 people , according to the campaign , which claimed it was the “ largest rally any presidential candidate has held in Iowa this cycle ” and a sign of their building momentum .
Recent polling shows the Vermont senator has consolidated support among the party ’ s most liberal voters and edges past his rivals in state and national surveys .
Amy Klobuchar , the senator from Minnesota , is seen as a potential wild card .
She has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in Iowa , where she has argued her midwestern appeal and moderate approach can win back voters who abandoned the party in 2016 .
If she fails to reach the 15 % threshold for viability to earn delegates in the caucuses , her supporters could play a decisive role in determining the evening ’ s winner .
Meanwhile , tech entrepreneur Andrew Yang predicted that his performance in the caucuses would “ shock ” the nation .
And not contesting in Iowa is former New York mayor and billionaire , Michael Bloomberg , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 100m on a gamble that he will win big in later contests .
The impeachment of Trump upended travel for Sanders , Warren and Klobuchar , who were required to be in Washington during the Senate trial , where Republicans are poised to acquit the president this week .
That leaves the fate of the presidency in the hands of the nearly one dozen Democratic hopefuls left in the race .
“ If the Senate is the jury right now , we are the jury tomorrow , ” Buttigieg said in an appearance @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ However frustrating it is to watch that process , you can ’ t switch it off , you can ’ t walk away , and you can ’ t give up.
” Republican caucuses will also take place on Monday night , but as Trump faces no serious challengers for the nomination , all eyes will be on Democrats .
In a bit to take back some of the limelight , White House officials , cabinet secretaries , members of Congress and Christian evangelicals will be in the Hawkeye state on Monday @ @ @ @ @ @ @ who and what the Democratic candidate will be up against .
“ This will be the strongest , best-funded , and most organized presidential campaign in history , ” said Brad Parscale , Trump 2020 campaign manager , last week .
“ We are putting the Democrats on notice – good luck trying to keep up with this formidable re-election machine .
”

After a year of ideological clashes and policy debates, voters in Iowa are set to have their say on which Democratic presidential candidate they believe is best positioned to beat Donald Trump in November.
Hundreds of thousands of Iowans – many of them still undecided – will gather on Monday night in gymnasiums, libraries and churches to participate in the Iowa caucuses, the first official nominating contest of the 2020 primary.
On the final day of campaigning, candidates blanketed the state, speaking to overcrowded rallies, overflow rooms and packed campaign offices in a final push to persuade the nearly 50% of caucus-goers who say they may still change their minds.
The race remains fluid with no clear frontrunner. Recent polls show four of the 11 remaining candidates knotted together at the top – former vice-president Joe Biden, Vermont senator Bernie Sanders, Massachusetts senator Elizabeth Warren and former South Bend, Indiana mayor Pete Buttigieg.
Q&A What are the Iowa caucuses? Show On 3 February, the midwestern state of Iowa will kick off the long process of choosing the Democratic party’s presidential nominee, who will take on Donald Trump in the US election in November. Most US states hold primary elections, in which voters go to a polling place, mail in their ballots or otherwise vote remotely. But a handful of states hold caucuses – complicated, hours-long meetings with multiple rounds of balloting until one candidate emerges as victor. Both Democratic and Republican caucuses will take place on 3 February. But because Trump doesn't face any serious Republican challengers, all eyes will be on the Democratic contest. Put simply, Iowans aged 18 (at the time of the November 3 election) and over who are registered Democrats will gather in caucus sites (school gyms, churches, community halls) in their designated precinct, and vote with their feet by splitting into groups based on their preferred candidate. Once voting is over at a caucus site, the support for viable candidates (those with more than 15% of the votes) is translated into a number of “state delegate equivalents”. That result is used to calculate the number of national delegates each candidate receives. National delegates eventually choose the nominee at the Democratic convention in July. On the night, the candidate with the most SDEs is considered the winner. Photograph: Jim Watson/AFP Was this helpful? Thank you for your feedback.
Iowans famously take their responsibility seriously: since 2000, every Democratic winner of the caucuses has gone on to win the nomination. But the prospect of four more years of a president Democratic voters view as singularly dangerous has added to the pressure. They could award one candidate – or possibly many – an early advantage as they compete in primaries across the rest of the nation.
“I respectfully suggest, not because I’m running, but because of the man who’s president, you’ve never had a greater responsibility than you have today,” Biden told more than a thousand people his at his final rally on Sunday, in a Des Moines middle school gym.
Joe Biden campaigning in Dubuque, Iowa, on Sunday. Photograph: Jim Lo Scalzo/EPA
Across the state there was a growing sense that Sanders had taken the lead while the other frontrunners were locked into a battle for second. A highly anticipated Des Moines Register/CNN/Mediacom poll that might have shed some clarity was canceled on Saturday night due to concerns with its methodology.
“Our politics is the only way we can beat Donald Trump, the most dangerous president in modern American history,” Sanders told volunteers at a field office in Newton on Sunday. “And the only way we can be him is if we have the largest voter turnout that this country has ever seen.”
Sanders’ strength has alarmed some Democrats who believe nominating a self-described socialist would be a disaster. One group spent nearly $700,000 on television ads in Iowa questioning Sanders’ electability.
On Sunday, an NBC News reporter overheard John Kerry, the 2004 Democratic presidential nominee and a top Biden surrogate, speculating that he might enter the race to avert “the possibility of Bernie Sanders taking down the Democratic party – down whole.” Kerry adamantly denied that he would run for president.
Biden has pitched himself as a steady pair of hands and the strongest choice against Trump, a view polling suggests is shared by a large constituency of Democrats, particularly among African Americans who play a critical role in later contests. But he faces competition for moderate voters from Buttigieg, 38, who has risen from relative anonymity.
“The good news is you don’t have to choose between the best way to govern well and the best way to win big,” the former mayor told a crowd of more than 2,000 at a closing rally in Des Moines. “At a moment like this, history has taught us we cannot take the risk of meeting a fundamentally new challenge by falling back on the familiar. We can’t be afraid of moving to the future and new voices in our leadership.”
Warren, a former public school teacher and Harvard law professor, has pitched herself as an unabashed liberal with an arsenal of detailed policy proposals for “big structural change”. But in the last days of the Iowa race she has also sought to emphasize what her allies argue is her unique capacity to unite and excite Democrats from the party’s ideological factions, even as she confronts doubts that a woman can beat Trump.
“We will – we must – come together as a party and defeat Donald Trump,” Warren told voters at a gymnasium in Cedar Rapids on Saturday. “And I’ve got a plan for that.”
The Senate impeachment trial added an additional layer of uncertainty to the already unusual Iowa caucuses, pulling Sanders, Warren and Amy Klobuchar – and the long-shot Senator Michael Bennet – back to Washington in the final weeks. Republicans are poised to acquit Trump on Wednesday, leaving the fate of the presidency in the hands of the Democrats running to defeat him.
Q&A Why are the Iowa caucuses important? Show On 3 February, voters in the midwestern state of Iowa will kick off the long process that will eventually choose the Democratic party’s presidential nominee, who will take on Donald Trump in November's US election. The primaries and caucuses are a series of contests, in all 50 US states plus Washington DC and outlying territories, by which each party selects its presidential nominee. Iowa is extremely influential in US elections because, since 1972, it has voted first. After months of campaigning, this will be the first chance to see what support each of the presidential candidates actually have among voters. Winning Iowa matters because it can give candidates a huge boost in momentum and name recognition before the other states cast their votes. Underdogs can triumph, and frontrunners can fall. Since 2000, every Democratic winner of the Iowa caucuses has gone on to win the party’s nomination. However, Iowa only has a population of around three million people, who are 90% white, which has prompted criticism that its influence in US elections is outsized. Was this helpful? Thank you for your feedback.
“We better not screw this up,” Klobuchar, the senator from Minnesota who has staked her candidacy on a strong finish in Iowa, told supporters on Saturday.
If Klobuchar fails to reach the 15% viability threshold, her supporters could play a decisive role. The same applies for the tech entrepreneur Andrew Yang, who has predicted that he will “shock” the nation.
The former New York mayor and billionaire Michael Bloomberg is not competing in Iowa, having spent more than $100m on a gamble that he will win big in later contests. Trump has fixated on the Bloomberg and on Sunday their campaigns aired dueling TV ads during the Super Bowl.
Republican caucuses will also take place on Monday night, but as Trump faces no serious challengers all eyes will be on Democrats. White House officials, cabinet secretaries, members of Congress and Christian evangelicals will be in the state on Monday to offer voters a stark reminder of who and what the Democratic candidate will be up against.
“This will be the strongest, best-funded and most organized presidential campaign in history,” Brad Parscale, Trump 2020 campaign manager, said last week. “We are putting the Democrats on notice: good luck trying to keep up with this formidable re-election machine.”
Additional reporting: David Smith in Des Moines.


theguardian--2020-02-03--'Nerve-racking': Iowans under pressure on eve of crucial caucuses

Many Iowans look forward to their state ’ s caucuses , the quadrennial ritual of gathering at schools , churches and libraries on a wintry night to formally kick off the presidential primaries .
This year , however , some Democrats can ’ t wait for them to be over .
“ Nerve-racking , ” “ overwhelming , ” and a “ little scary , ” is how Dyese Matthews , 24 , a graduate student at Iowa State University , described the pressure of being among the first Americans to make their choice in the months-long nominating process to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ Hillary Clinton was supposed to beat Donald Trump , ” she said at an event for Massachusetts senator and presidential candidate Elizabeth Warren in Ames during the weekend .
“ We never thought we would be in this position.
” Iowans are known for taking seriously their responsibility as host of the “ first-in-the-nation caucuses ” .
But this year , many have been consumed by the desperate desire to defeat a president they view as uniquely dangerous and unfit for office .
Already facing questions about whether a state with a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ play such an outsized role in an increasingly diverse Democratic party , many Iowans say they feel added pressure – and anxiety – this year to “ get this right ” .
“ For Democratic voters in Iowa , it feels like an existential crisis , ” said David Redlawsk , a political scientist at the University of Delaware who is in Iowa studying the 2020 caucuses .
“ As much as people here have always cared a lot about policy and a lot about values , it really feels different this time.
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ the state this weekend in a final push before the caucuses .
Polls show no clear frontrunner and voters still torn over who to support .
A Monmouth University poll released last week found that roughly half of likely Democratic caucus-goers say they are still open to changing their minds when they show up on Monday evening .
Having a large number of undecided Iowans at this stage is not unique to 2020 , said Patrick Murray , who runs the polling institute at Monmouth .
But he added : “ The fact @ @ @ @ @ @ @ frontrunner is an indication that folks are not quite sold on which candidate is the most electable.
” A relentless focus on electability – in other words , the safest choice in a contest against Trump – has turned politically savvy Iowans into full-blown pundits .
And with 11 candidates still in the race , there ’ s plenty to discuss .
Is Joe Biden , 77 , too old ?
Is Pete Buttigieg , 38 , too young ?
Is self-described democratic socialist Bernie Sanders too liberal ?
Is former Harvard law @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a polite way of asking if a woman can win ) ?
“ I ’ ve really been more conflicted this year than ever before , ” said Shireen Carter , an attorney in Norwalk who described the decision as “ heart versus head ” .
She plans to caucus for Warren but worries about whether the party would align behind an unabashed progressive .
“ There ’ s always more responsibility because we are first in the nation .
But this year has felt like … ” she paused and let out @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s just an additional layer of pressure.
” The candidates are not making the choice any easier .
“ Folks , every four years democracy begins in Iowa , ” Biden told an audience in Muscatine last week .
“ You start the clock running – you make judgments about who among us gets to go out of the gate .
You narrow down the field for the rest of the country.
” Sanders told Iowans that at Monday ’ s caucuses their choice would have significant bearing on the “ most consequential @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not all [ of ] American history ” .
Karen Cooney , a volunteer with the Muscatine Democratic party , said her advice to friends gripped by indecision has been to do what Iowans always do : meet the candidates , shake their hands and ask them questions .
But she understands that ’ s easier said than done .
Cooney has a short list of three candidates she ’ s considering .
She said : “ A woman told me yesterday : ‘ I just can ’ t wait for Monday night @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ve made my choice and I ’ m done .
I don ’ t have to think about it any more.
” Not all voters are undecided – far from it .
Manysigned “ commit to caucus ” cards at candidate events this weekend .
Others committed to their candidate weeks or even months ago .
And some have been waiting for this moment since 2016 .
“ It ’ s going to be so good this year , ” Julie Van Dyke , 53 , of Iowa City said after a Sanders @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Naomi Klein .
“ Last time was intimidating and ugly , but this time he ’ s going to win .
It ’ s going to be amazing.
” This isn ’ t just a feeling , she said – she was actively growing the movement .
“ Last night I talked a Republican into caucusing for Bernie , ” she said .
“ It took me two hours but it was worth it.
” Iowans will make their voices heard on Monday night , starting at 7pm CST , at the more @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , from the Mississippi River to the Missouri River – and even some in other states and countries .
Then , for the next several hours they will play what is effectively a high-stakes game of musical chairs until a winner is declared .
“ It ’ s fun to have it happen , ” said Lynette Marshall , who attended a Warren event in Iowa City but had not yet made up her mind .
“ But we ’ re ready to move on .
”

Lauren Gambino and Joan E Greve in Des Moines, Iowa

Many Iowans look forward to their state’s caucuses, the quadrennial ritual of gathering at schools, churches and libraries on a wintry night to formally kick off the presidential primaries. This year, however, some Democrats can’t wait for them to be over.
“Nerve-racking”, “overwhelming” and a “little scary” is how Dyese Matthews, 24, a graduate student at Iowa State University, described the pressure of being among the first Americans to make their choice in the months-long nominating process to choose the party’s standard-bearer.
“Hillary Clinton was supposed to beat Donald Trump,” she said at an event for the Massachusetts senator and presidential candidate Elizabeth Warren in Ames during the weekend. “We never thought we would be in this position.”
Iowans are known for taking seriously their responsibility as host of the “first-in-the-nation caucuses”. But this year, many have been consumed by the desperate desire to defeat a president they view as uniquely dangerous and unfit for office.
Pete Buttigieg attends a campaign event in Des Moines, Iowa. Photograph: Eric Thayer/Reuters
Already facing questions about whether a state with a population that is 90% white should play such an outsized role in an increasingly diverse Democratic party, many Iowans say they feel added pressure – and anxiety – this year to “get this right”.
“For Democratic voters in Iowa, it feels like an existential crisis,” said David Redlawsk, a political scientist at the University of Delaware who is in Iowa studying the 2020 caucuses. “As much as people here have always cared a lot about policy and a lot about values, it really feels different this time.”
Q&A What are the Iowa caucuses? Show On 3 February, the midwestern state of Iowa will kick off the long process of choosing the Democratic party’s presidential nominee, who will take on Donald Trump in the US election in November. Most US states hold primary elections, in which voters go to a polling place, mail in their ballots or otherwise vote remotely. But a handful of states hold caucuses – complicated, hours-long meetings with multiple rounds of balloting until one candidate emerges as victor. Both Democratic and Republican caucuses will take place on 3 February. But because Trump doesn't face any serious Republican challengers, all eyes will be on the Democratic contest. Put simply, Iowans aged 18 (at the time of the November 3 election) and over who are registered Democrats will gather in caucus sites (school gyms, churches, community halls) in their designated precinct, and vote with their feet by splitting into groups based on their preferred candidate. Once voting is over at a caucus site, the support for viable candidates (those with more than 15% of the votes) is translated into a number of “state delegate equivalents”. That result is used to calculate the number of national delegates each candidate receives. National delegates eventually choose the nominee at the Democratic convention in July. On the night, the candidate with the most SDEs is considered the winner. Photograph: Jim Watson/AFP Was this helpful? Thank you for your feedback.
Leading Democratic presidential candidates descended on the state this weekend in a final push before the caucuses. Polls show no clear frontrunner and voters still torn over who to support.
A Monmouth University poll released last week found that roughly half of likely Democratic caucus-goers say they are still open to changing their minds when they show up on Monday evening.
Having a large number of undecided Iowans at this stage is not unique to 2020, said Patrick Murray, who runs the polling institute at Monmouth. But he added: “The fact that we don’t have any frontrunner is an indication that folks are not quite sold on which candidate is the most electable.”
A relentless focus on electability – in other words, the safest choice in a contest against Trump – has turned politically savvy Iowans into full-blown pundits. And with 11 candidates still in the race, there’s plenty to discuss.
Joe Biden hugs a supporter after a campaign event in Dubuque, Iowa. Photograph: Iván Alvarado/Reuters
Is Joe Biden, 77, too old? Is Pete Buttigieg, 38, too young? Is self-described democratic socialist Bernie Sanders too liberal? Is former Harvard law professor Elizabeth Warren too risky (often a polite way of asking if a woman can win)?
“I’ve really been more conflicted this year than ever before,” said Shireen Carter, an attorney in Norwalk who described the decision as “heart versus head”.
She plans to caucus for Warren but worries about whether the party would align behind an unabashed progressive. “There’s always more responsibility because we are first in the nation. But this year has felt like …” she paused and let out a long sigh. “There’s just an additional layer of pressure.”
The candidates are not making the choice any easier.
“Folks, every four years democracy begins in Iowa,” Biden told an audience in Muscatine last week. “You start the clock running – you make judgments about who among us gets to go out of the gate. You narrow down the field for the rest of the country.”
Sanders told Iowans that at Monday’s caucuses their choice would have significant bearing on the “most consequential election in modern American history, if not all [of] American history”.
Q&A Why are the Iowa caucuses important? Show On 3 February, voters in the midwestern state of Iowa will kick off the long process that will eventually choose the Democratic party’s presidential nominee, who will take on Donald Trump in November's US election. The primaries and caucuses are a series of contests, in all 50 US states plus Washington DC and outlying territories, by which each party selects its presidential nominee. Iowa is extremely influential in US elections because, since 1972, it has voted first. After months of campaigning, this will be the first chance to see what support each of the presidential candidates actually have among voters. Winning Iowa matters because it can give candidates a huge boost in momentum and name recognition before the other states cast their votes. Underdogs can triumph, and frontrunners can fall. Since 2000, every Democratic winner of the Iowa caucuses has gone on to win the party’s nomination. However, Iowa only has a population of around three million people, who are 90% white, which has prompted criticism that its influence in US elections is outsized. Was this helpful? Thank you for your feedback.
Karen Cooney, a volunteer with the Muscatine Democratic party, said her advice to friends gripped by indecision has been to do what Iowans always do: meet the candidates, shake their hands and ask them questions.
But she understands that’s easier said than done. Cooney has a shortlist of three candidates she’s considering. She said: “A woman told me yesterday: ‘I just can’t wait for Monday night to be over. Then I’ve made my choice and I’m done. I don’t have to think about it any more.”
Not all voters are undecided – far from it. Manysigned “commit to caucus” cards at candidate events this weekend. Others committed to their candidate weeks or even months ago. And some have been waiting for this moment since 2016.
Elizabeth Warren addresses the overflow crowd at a Get Out the Caucus rally in Indianola, Iowa. Photograph: Brian Snyder/Reuters
“It’s going to be so good this year,” Julie Van Dyke, 53, of Iowa City said after a Sanders campaign event with surrogates Michael Moore and Naomi Klein. “Last time was intimidating and ugly, but this time he’s going to win. It’s going to be amazing.”
This isn’t just a feeling, she said – she was actively growing the movement.
“Last night I talked a Republican into caucusing for Bernie,” she said. “It took me two hours but it was worth it.”
Iowans will make their voices heard on Monday night, starting at 7pm CST, at the more than 1,600 precinct locations across the state, from the Mississippi River to the Missouri River – and even some in other states and countries. Then, for the next several hours they will play what is effectively a high-stakes game of musical chairs until a winner is declared.
“It’s fun to have it happen,” said Lynette Marshall, who attended a Warren event in Iowa City but had not yet made up her mind. “But we’re ready to move on.”


theguardian--2020-02-03--US election: The importance of Iowa – podcast

Chris McGreal visits the first US state to vote in this year ’ s race for the Democratic party ’ s presidential nomination .
Joe Biden , Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren are vying for crucial early momentum in the race to take on Trump .
Plus : Iman Amrani on modern masculinity The Iowa caucuses tonight are the first staging post in the long road to the Democratic party ’ s nomination process for the presidential candidate who will run against Donald Trump in November ’ s election .
Voters will assemble in town halls in the midwestern state @ @ @ @ @ @ @ It ’ s been described as a game of political musical chairs as voters move around the room coalescing around their favourite candidates .
The Guardian ’ s Chris McGreal has been visiting Iowa for months and has found that Democratic voters are faced with a dilemma : vote for a radical candidate with bold policies or opt for one who polls better among swing voters .
Whichever candidate Iowans choose tonight will have a big early advantage : early victories are vital in attracting financial donations as well as giving campaigns forward @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to have their say , this is the start of a gruelling months-long process .
Also today : Guardian video journalist Iman Amrani on modern masculinity and the debate around circumcision .

Presented by Rachel Humphreys with Chris McGreal and Iman Amrani; produced by Joshua Kelly, Gregory Robinson, Courtney Yusuf and Axel Kacoutié; executive producers Phil Maynard and Nicole Jackson

Chris McGreal visits the first US state to vote in this year’s race for the Democratic party’s presidential nomination. Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren are vying for crucial early momentum in the race to take on Trump. Plus: Iman Amrani on modern masculinity
The Iowa caucuses tonight are the first staging post in the long road to the Democratic party’s nomination process for the presidential candidate who will run against Donald Trump in November’s election. Voters will assemble in town halls in the midwestern state to caucus for their preferred candidate. It’s been described as a game of political musical chairs as voters move around the room coalescing around their favourite candidates.
The Guardian’s Chris McGreal has been visiting Iowa for months and has found that Democratic voters are faced with a dilemma: vote for a radical candidate with bold policies or opt for one who polls better among swing voters. Whichever candidate Iowans choose tonight will have a big early advantage: early victories are vital in attracting financial donations as well as giving campaigns forward momentum. But with 49 more states to have their say, this is the start of a gruelling months-long process.
Also today: Guardian video journalist Iman Amrani on modern masculinity and the debate around circumcision.


theguardian--2020-02-02--'Pathological liar': Bloomberg hits back at Trump 'Mini Mike' insult

Michael Bloomberg traded insults with Donald Trump on Sunday , calling the president “ a pathological liar who lies about everything : his fake hair , his obesity and his spray-on tan ” .
The comment , made through the Democratic presidential candidate ’ s press secretary , came in response to abusive tweets and remarks the president made in a Super Bowl interview with Fox News host Sean Hannity .
In a quick-fire section of the interview , Trump was asked what he thought of when he heard the names of various political rivals .
“ Very little , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I just think of little.
” Trump then repeated an evidence-free claim , also made on Twitter earlier , about Bloomberg demanding special treatment in the Democratic presidential primary because of his height .
“ Now he wants a box for the debates to stand on .
OK , it ’ s OK , there ’ s nothing wrong , you can be short .
Why he should he get a box to stand on , OK ?
He wants a box for the debates .
Why should he be entitled to that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ else gets a box ?
” The president also said he would “ love to run against Bloomberg .
I would love it ” .
Bloomberg told reporters in Los Angeles he would “ stand twice as tall as he does on the stage that matters ” and said Trump “ knows that I can beat him ” .
An undignified exchange with Trump can be a sign of a candidate gaining credibility , at least with a president notoriously prone to lash out under pressure .
Since declaring his run for the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has spent liberally on advertising and campaign infrastructure .
He has begun to make a corresponding impact on the race and the polls .
He is not competing in Iowa , which votes on Monday , or New Hampshire which follows .
But he is now fourth in the realclearpolitics.com national polling average and this week the Democratic National Committee ( DNC ) changed debate qualification rules which had kept his self-financed campaign out of the TV spotlight .
As a result , Bloomberg looks set to appear in the first debate under @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 19 February .
“ Mini Mike is part of the Fake News , ” the president wrote early on Sunday , using his nickname for the owner of Bloomberg News .
Trump regularly complains about mainstream coverage of his administration .
Bloomberg has not divested from his businesses and questions about how his media company will cover his campaign have swirled from the off .
“ They are all working together , ” Trump said .
“ In fact , Bloomberg isn ’ t covering himself ( too boring to do ) , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ That sounds fair !
It ’ s all the Fake News Media , and that ’ s why nobody believes in them any more.
” After Bloomberg declared his White House run , the editor-in-chief of Bloomberg News said the company would not investigate Bloomberg or any other Democrat but would still investigate Trump .
The decision met with widespread criticism .
Trump also said : “ Many of the ads you are watching were paid for by Mini Mike Bloomberg .
He is going nowhere , just wasting his money.
” The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ Looks like our ads are keeping you up at night .
We ’ ve got one in particular you should watch today.
” That was a reference to an ad that will run during the Super Bowl , focusing on Bloomberg ’ s push for gun safety reform .
Trump will also run an ad during the game , which attracts a massive TV audience .
Trump also claimed Bloomberg was “ getting the DNC to rig the election against Crazy Bernie [ Sanders ] , something they wouldn ’ t do @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it to Bernie again , 2016.
” Sanders challenged Hillary Clinton unexpectedly strongly four years ago , in many eyes damaging her before her defeat by Trump .
Many Sanders supporters claimed the primary was rigged .
The issue raised its head again this week when Politico reported that “ a small group of DNC members has privately begun gauging support for a plan to potentially weaken Bernie Sanders ’ presidential campaign ” .
Many party figures question the desirability of a Sanders nomination , in part because the Vermont senator is not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ can rebound on Bloomberg given he switched from Democrat to Republican to run for mayor in New York .
Bloomberg national press secretary Julie Wood issued the insulting response to Trump ’ s tweets .
The candidate himself told reporters : “ The president lies , he lies about everything , so it shouldn ’ t be a surprise that he said things like that .
“ I will stand on my accomplishments of what I ’ ve done to bring this country together and get things done .
I ’ ve been @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I stand twice as tall as he does on the stage that matters .
“ This is what happens when someone like me rises in the polls .
All of a sudden the other candidates get scared and I think Donald Trump knows that I can beat him.
” Bloomberg has previously needled the president about their respective fortunes .
According to Forbes , Bloomberg is worth around $ 60bn , 17 times as much as Trump .

Michael Bloomberg traded insults with Donald Trump on Sunday, calling the president “a pathological liar who lies about everything: his fake hair, his obesity and his spray-on tan”.
The comment, made through the Democratic presidential candidate’s press secretary, came in response to abusive tweets and remarks the president made in a Super Bowl interview with the Fox News host Sean Hannity.
In a quickfire section of the interview, Trump was asked what he thought of when he heard the names of various political rivals.
“Very little,” he said of Bloomberg. “I just think of little.”
Bloomberg, 77, is 5ft 8in tall. Trump, 73, is 6ft 3in.
Trump then repeated an evidence-free claim, also made on Twitter earlier, about Bloomberg demanding special treatment in the Democratic presidential primary because of his height.
“Now he wants a box for the debates to stand on. OK, it’s OK, there’s nothing wrong, you can be short. Why he should he get a box to stand on, OK? He wants a box for the debates. Why should he be entitled to that, really? Does that mean everyone else gets a box?”
The president also said he would “love to run against Bloomberg. I would love it.”
Bloomberg told reporters in Los Angeles he would “stand twice as tall as he does on the stage that matters” and said Trump “knows that I can beat him” .
An undignified exchange with Trump can be a sign of a candidate gaining credibility, at least with a president notoriously prone to lash out under pressure.
Since declaring his run for the Democratic nomination in late November, Bloomberg has spent liberally on advertising and campaign infrastructure. He has begun to make a corresponding impact on the race and the polls.
He is not competing in Iowa, which votes on Monday, or New Hampshire which follows. But he is now fourth in the realclearpolitics.com national polling average and this week the Democratic National Committee (DNC) changed debate qualification rules which had kept his self-financed campaign out of the TV spotlight.
As a result, Bloomberg looks set to appear in the first debate under the new rules, in Nevada on 19 February.
Trump broadened his attack on Twitter.
“Mini Mike is part of the Fake News,” the president wrote early on Sunday, using his nickname for the owner of Bloomberg News.
Trump regularly complains about mainstream coverage of his administration. Bloomberg has not divested from his businesses and questions about how his media company will cover his campaign have swirled from the off.
“They are all working together,” Trump said. “In fact, Bloomberg isn’t covering himself (too boring to do), or other Dems. Only Trump. That sounds fair! It’s all the Fake News Media, and that’s why nobody believes in them any more.”
After Bloomberg declared his White House run, the editor-in-chief of Bloomberg News said the company would not investigate Bloomberg or any other Democrat but would still investigate Trump. The decision met with widespread criticism.
Trump also said: “Many of the ads you are watching were paid for by Mini Mike Bloomberg. He is going nowhere, just wasting his money.”
The former mayor clapped back, tweeting: “Looks like our ads are keeping you up at night. We’ve got one in particular you should watch today.”
That was a reference to an ad that will run during the Super Bowl, focusing on Bloomberg’s push for gun safety reform. Trump will also run an ad during the game, which attracts a massive TV audience.
Trump also claimed Bloomberg was “getting the DNC to rig the election against Crazy Bernie [Sanders], something they wouldn’t do for … others. They are doing it to Bernie again, 2016.”
Sanders challenged Hillary Clinton unexpectedly strongly four years ago, in many eyes damaging her before her defeat by Trump.
Many Sanders supporters claimed the primary was rigged. The issue raised its head again this week when Politico reported that “a small group of DNC members has privately begun gauging support for a plan to potentially weaken Bernie Sanders’ presidential campaign”.
Many party figures question the desirability of a Sanders nomination, in part because the Vermont senator is not a registered Democrat, a point which can rebound on Bloomberg given he switched from Democrat to Republican to run for mayor in New York.
Bloomberg’s national press secretary, Julie Wood, issued the insulting response to Trump’s tweets. The candidate himself told reporters: “The president lies, he lies about everything, so it shouldn’t be a surprise that he said things like that.
“I will stand on my accomplishments of what I’ve done to bring this country together and get things done. I’ve been doing it for a long time and I stand twice as tall as he does on the stage that matters.
“This is what happens when someone like me rises in the polls. All of a sudden the other candidates get scared and I think Donald Trump knows that I can beat him.”
Bloomberg has previously needled the president about their respective fortunes. According to Forbes, Bloomberg is worth around $60bn, 17 times as much as Trump.


theguardian--2020-02-02--John Kerry discussed 2020 run to stop Sanders and save Democrats – report

Former presidential candidate and secretary of state John Kerry has reportedly been overheard discussing a late bid for the Democratic nomination , in order to stop “ the possibility of Bernie Sanders taking down the Democratic party – down whole ” .
A day before the Iowa caucuses , Sanders leads the way in public polling concerning the first contest in the Democratic race to face Donald Trump in November .
But many in the party see the independent senator from Vermont as too leftwing to be the nominee .
NBC News reported that one of its staff overheard Kerry @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Savory hotel in Des Moines .
“ Maybe I ’ m fucking deluding myself here , ” he reportedly said , discussing with an unidentified caller how he would have to give up board positions and paid speeches if he ran but also saying donors like Doug Hickey , a venture capitalist , might “ raise a couple of million ” to help .
Asked about the call , Kerry said he was “ absolutely not ” considering a run , NBC reported .
He later tweeted : “ As I told the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for president .
Any report otherwise is categorically false .
I ’ ve been proud to campaign with my good friend Joe Biden , who is going to win the nomination , beat Trump , and make an outstanding president.
” A tweet which said “ any report otherwise is fucking ( or categorically ) false ” appeared to have been deleted .
Sanders was campaigning in Iowa on Sunday before flying back to Washington for the concluding days of Trump ’ s impeachment trial .
He did not immediately comment on the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , a campaign group , simply tweeted : “ ?
” Kerry was the Democratic nominee in 2004 , losing narrowly to President George W Bush .
A longtime Massachusetts senator , he was secretary of state in Barack Obama ’ s second term .
He flirted with a run against Trump in 2020 but has instead campaigned for former vice-president Joe Biden , who leads Sanders in national polling but has seen his lead shrink as the senator has surged .
The former Baltimore mayor and Maryland governor Martin O ’ Malley @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Sanders and Hillary Clinton in 2016 , is another senior Democratic party figure who does not want Sanders to be the nominee .
“ I do not believe that he would be a strong candidate for our party in the fall , ” O ’ Malley told the Guardian in an interview published on Sunday .
Sanders , O ’ Malley said , “ has been a kind of stalwart of the National Rifle Association , a man who said immigrants steal our jobs right up until he ran for president , a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Kennedy ’ s voice made him nauseous ” .
“ He ’ s a man who never has accomplished anything in public office , who has I believe demonstrated his inability to forge a governing consensus , let alone hold a governing consensus .
And I think he ’ d be an awful choice .
”

Former presidential candidate and secretary of state John Kerry has reportedly been overheard discussing a late bid for the Democratic nomination, in order to stop “the possibility of Bernie Sanders taking down the Democratic party – down whole”.
A day before the Iowa caucuses, Sanders leads the way in public polling concerning the first contest in the Democratic race to face Donald Trump in November. But many in the party see the independent senator from Vermont as too leftwing to be the nominee.
NBC News reported that one of its staff overheard Kerry talking on the phone at the Renaissance Savory hotel in Des Moines.
“Maybe I’m fucking deluding myself here,” he reportedly said, discussing with an unidentified caller how he would have to give up board positions and paid speeches if he ran but also saying donors like Doug Hickey, a venture capitalist, might “raise a couple of million” to help.
Asked about the call, Kerry said he was “absolutely not” considering a run, NBC reported.
He later tweeted: “As I told the reporter, I am absolutely not running for president. Any report otherwise is categorically false. I’ve been proud to campaign with my good friend Joe Biden, who is going to win the nomination, beat Trump, and make an outstanding president.”
A tweet which said “any report otherwise is fucking (or categorically) false” appeared to have been deleted.
Sanders was campaigning in Iowa on Sunday before flying back to Washington for the concluding days of Trump’s impeachment trial. He did not immediately comment on the NBC report. The People for Bernie, a campaign group, simply tweeted: “?”
Kerry was the Democratic nominee in 2004, losing narrowly to President George W Bush. A longtime Massachusetts senator, he was secretary of state in Barack Obama’s second term.
He flirted with a run against Trump in 2020 but has instead campaigned for former vice-president Joe Biden, who leads Sanders in national polling but has seen his lead shrink as the senator has surged.
The former Baltimore mayor and Maryland governor Martin O’Malley, who ran for the nomination against Sanders and Hillary Clinton in 2016, is another senior Democratic party figure who does not want Sanders to be the nominee.
“I do not believe that he would be a strong candidate for our party in the fall,” O’Malley told the Guardian in an interview published on Sunday.
Sanders, O’Malley said, “has been a kind of stalwart of the National Rifle Association, a man who said immigrants steal our jobs right up until he ran for president, a guy who said the sound of John Kennedy’s voice made him nauseous”.
“He’s a man who never has accomplished anything in public office, who has I believe demonstrated his inability to forge a governing consensus, let alone hold a governing consensus. And I think he’d be an awful choice.”


theguardian--2020-02-03--Politicians pander to the 'folksy' Midwest - but ignore the region's radical history | Jessa Crispin

It happens every presidential election .
The candidates will get all folksy .
They will eat a corn dog , they will start sentences with , “ Folks … ” They will play up any connection to the heartland they can dig up and they will use the word heartland a lot .
Maybe this is all because the primary season begins with the Iowa caucus , but this act plays well across the country .
The midwestern common folk routine works because it is still a dominant American fantasy about what a good life is : close to the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the warm embrace of a heteronormative nuclear family .
We don ’ t need no fancy learnin ’ to figure out the problems we face , just good common sense .
Which , for some reason , we assume midwesterners have a ton of .
Amy Klobuchar has been playing up her Minnesota origins in every single debate , insisting , “ It ’ s not flyover country to me !
” and proposing vague things like “ heartland economics.
” At her campaign events she has been serving up “ hot @ @ @ @ @ @ @ midwesterner knows , is a disgusting mix of whatever meat is in the freezer mixed up with whatever Campbell ’ s cream soup is in the pantry , probably a canned vegetable of some kind , and whatever ready-made frozen starchy thing might be available , from leftover noodles to frozen tater tots , slopped together and made with bitter resentment by a parent when they are filled with exhaustion and despair but still feel obliged to perform familial duties like neighborhood potluck or Sunday dinner .
You bake it at 350 degrees @ @ @ @ @ @ @ childhood in Oklahoma over her career in Massachusetts , talking about how her father was just a janitor ( or a “ maintenance man ” , depending which version of the story you hear ) .
But no one has been working quite so hard to play the role of the common midwesterner as Pete Buttigieg .
He keeps rolling up his shirtsleeves , he keeps making speeches in cornfields .
He keeps talking about cornfields .
He recently announced at a campaign stop in Pella , Iowa : “ It might not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ somebody to Washington , rather than from Washington , maybe somebody who can actually walk from his house to the nearest cornfield.
” Everyone loves to be pandered to .
Why do you think the literati squeal with delight every time Barack Obama releases his reading list for the year ?
“ So great to have a president who reads , ” they exclaim , by which they mean “ reads the same books as us ” , because if he was toting around Tom Clancy it is doubtful they would get quite @ @ @ @ @ @ @ act is perhaps the least convincing .
He doesn ’ t have small-town wisdom ; he has a corporate sneer .
He grew up in the wealthy suburbs , raised by leftwing academics .
After attending Harvard and Oxford , he decided he wanted to get some experience “ in the real world ” , as he put it in his memoir , so he went to work at McKinsey & Company , a management consultancy , the kind of place that bears some responsibility for why midwestern lives are so difficult right @ @ @ @ @ @ @ trying to lay claim to an identity and a history of a region he fundamentally misunderstands , like all Democrats seem to do .
The invention of the idea of the “ red state ” during the 2000 election managed to homogenize and stereotype an entire region , reducing it to an entirely white , rural , and conservative region , a land of “ simple folk ” ( by which is meant uneducated and uncultured ) , and to create the impression it was always that way .
But the history of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ From the battles of Kansas abolitionists , to the socialist rebellion of farmers in Oklahoma , to the communist and anarchist parties in every midwestern state , to the labor movements in Kansas City , Chicago , and Detroit , the midwest has long been a place of organization and revolution .
Kansas was the center of a communist publishing center , sending literature about women ’ s rights , civil rights , and socialism across the nation .
Of course , this is not something they even teach you in midwestern high @ @ @ @ @ @ @ out , alongside the genocide of the native people .
But that rebellious spirit is as much a part of the region as its love of indefensibly bad casseroles .
Embedded in politicians ’ folksy act is a lack of interest in the real problems facing the midwest .
Few of the candidates have talked about the spiking suicide rate among farmers .
It is not just a lack of available and affordable mental health services , although that , alongside closing medical facilities in rural regions , is a serious problem that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to address .
Because suicide epidemics aren ’ t stopped only with prescription drugs .
They are stopped by material support .
We need to address the corporate takeover of farms , which has left farmers in debt to companies such as Monsanto and Tyson .
Now when trouble comes , like a failed crop or a trade war waged by a president that closes markets for American farmers , there is no one to turn to , and depression can set in .
The union busting and communist scapegoating destroyed the solidarity @ @ @ @ @ @ @ But of course , the problems of the midwest are not only rural problems .
The gun violence and teachers ’ strikes and systemic poverty of urban areas like Minneapolis , Chicago and Detroit are also midwestern issues , but no one pretends they can solve those issues with a go-get- ’ em attitude and bags of “ common sense ” .
The problems of the midwest can perhaps best be solved through a time-honored midwestern tradition : organization and rebellion .
Because the act is no longer working , and those playing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ seeing their polling numbers slip in the midwest .
Maybe next time when we think about the “ typical midwesterner ” , we should picture people like the Chicago anarchists who gave us lasting labor reform , or the Kansas abolitionists who fought for the end of slavery , or even the housing activists getting tenants ’ rights protection legislation passed in Kansas City .
Our “ conservative ” history is a shallow aberration .
If the candidates want to continue to pander to the midwest , they will have to do better @ @ @ @ @ @ @ • None Jessa Crispin is the host of the Public Intellectual podcast

It happens every presidential election. The candidates will get all folksy. They will eat a corn dog, they will start sentences with, “Folks …” They will play up any connection to the heartland they can dig up and they will use the word heartland a lot.
Maybe this is all because the primary season begins with the Iowa caucus, but this act plays well across the country. The midwestern common folk routine works because it is still a dominant American fantasy about what a good life is: close to the land, close to God, and in the warm embrace of a heteronormative nuclear family. We don’t need no fancy learnin’ to figure out the problems we face, just good common sense. Which, for some reason, we assume midwesterners have a ton of.
Amy Klobuchar has been playing up her Minnesota origins in every single debate, insisting, “It’s not flyover country to me!” and proposing vague things like “heartland economics”. At her campaign events she has been serving up “hot plate”, which, as every midwesterner knows, is a disgusting mix of whatever meat is in the freezer mixed up with whatever Campbell’s cream soup is in the pantry, probably a canned vegetable of some kind, and whatever ready-made frozen starchy thing might be available, from leftover noodles to frozen tater tots, slopped together and made with bitter resentment by a parent when they are filled with exhaustion and despair but still feel obliged to perform familial duties like neighborhood potluck or Sunday dinner. You bake it at 350 degrees.
Elizabeth Warren is also emphasizing her childhood in Oklahoma over her career in Massachusetts, talking about how her father was just a janitor (or a “maintenance man”, depending which version of the story you hear). But no one has been working quite so hard to play the role of the common midwesterner as Pete Buttigieg.
He keeps rolling up his shirtsleeves, he keeps making speeches in cornfields. He keeps talking about cornfields. He recently announced at a campaign stop in Pella, Iowa: “It might not be a bad idea to send in somebody to Washington, rather than from Washington, maybe somebody who can actually walk from his house to the nearest cornfield.”
If the candidates want to continue to pander to the midwest, they will have to do better than just corn dogs and cornfields
Everyone loves to be pandered to. Why do you think the literati squeal with delight every time Barack Obama releases his reading list for the year? “So great to have a president who reads,” they exclaim, by which they mean “reads the same books as us”, because if he was toting around Tom Clancy it is doubtful they would get quite so excited.
But Buttigieg’s act is perhaps the least convincing. He doesn’t have small-town wisdom; he has a corporate sneer. He grew up in the wealthy suburbs, raised by leftwing academics. After attending Harvard and Oxford, he decided he wanted to get some experience “in the real world”, as he put it in his memoir, so he went to work at McKinsey & Company, a management consultancy, the kind of place that bears some responsibility for why midwestern lives are so difficult right now.
If anything, Buttigieg is trying to lay claim to an identity and a history of a region he fundamentally misunderstands, like all Democrats seem to do. The invention of the idea of the “red state” during the 2000 election managed to homogenize and stereotype an entire region, reducing it to an entirely white, rural and conservative region, a land of “simple folk” (by which is meant uneducated and uncultured), and to create the impression it was always that way.
But the history of midwestern radicalism is long and deep. From the battles of Kansas abolitionists, to the socialist rebellion of farmers in Oklahoma, to the communist and anarchist parties in every midwestern state, to the labor movements in Kansas City, Chicago and Detroit, the midwest has long been a place of organization and revolution. Kansas was the center of a communist publishing center, sending literature about women’s rights, civil rights and socialism across the nation. Of course, this is not something they even teach you in midwestern high schools – they prefer to leave it out, alongside the genocide of the native people. But that rebellious spirit is as much a part of the region as its love of indefensibly bad casseroles.
Embedded in politicians’ folksy act is a lack of interest in the real problems facing the midwest. Few of the candidates have talked about the spiking suicide rate among farmers. It is not just a lack of available and affordable mental health services, although that, alongside closing medical facilities in rural regions, is a serious problem that few of the candidates have comprehensive plans to address. Because suicide epidemics aren’t stopped only with prescription drugs. They are stopped by material support. We need to address the corporate takeover of farms, which has left farmers in debt to companies such as Monsanto and Tyson. Now when trouble comes, like a failed crop or a trade war waged by a president that closes markets for American farmers, there is no one to turn to, and depression can set in. The union busting and communist scapegoating destroyed the solidarity of the region’s farmers.
But of course, the problems of the midwest are not only rural problems. The gun violence and teachers’ strikes and systemic poverty of urban areas like Minneapolis, Chicago and Detroit are also midwestern issues, but no one pretends they can solve those issues with a go-get-’em attitude and bags of “common sense”.
The problems of the midwest can perhaps best be solved through a time-honored midwestern tradition: organization and rebellion. Because the act is no longer working, and those playing hardest at being the typical midwesterner are seeing their polling numbers slip in the midwest.
Maybe next time when we think about the “typical midwesterner”, we should picture people like the Chicago anarchists who gave us lasting labor reform, or the Kansas abolitionists who fought for the end of slavery, or even the housing activists getting tenants’ rights protection legislation passed in Kansas City. Our “conservative” history is a shallow aberration. If the candidates want to continue to pander to the midwest, they will have to do better than just corn dogs and cornfields.


theguardian--2020-02-02--In Iowa, a vote for Warren is a vote for Biden | Nathan Robinson

Let ’ s look at where things stand with the Democratic candidates in Iowa as of right now , according to FiveThirtyEight : If you ’ re a Bernie Sanders supporter , you might be thinking : “ OK , we ’ re in a good position .
It ’ s close but we ’ re a little bit ahead.
” But even if that number holds , Sanders might actually be crushed in Iowa , thanks to the unusual voting system there and particular effect of candidate No 4 .
Sanders supporters need to do everything possible to keep @ @ @ @ @ @ @ their candidate from actually voting for Warren .
At an Iowa caucus site , there are two rounds of voting .
In the first round , a candidate must get at least 15 % to stay in for the second round .
If they get less than 15 % , their voters are released and can support another candidate .
So in the second round , candidates are hoping to pick up the voters who supported the ones who lost in the first .
Delegate totals are based on the numbers from the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for the moment that in one given location , all Pete Buttigieg voters have Joe Biden as their second choice , and all Warren supporters have Sanders as their second choice .
I am simplifying , but this will be the trend .
And let ’ s assume that in the first round of voting , the result exactly matches FiveThirtyEight ’ s polling .
What happens ?
Well , Sanders , Biden and Buttigieg all break 15 % and keep their votes .
Warren does not crack 15 % so she gets @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Sanders picks up Warren ’ s 14.4 % while Biden picks up nothing .
( Let us temporarily forget all the other candidates exist , which is not difficult . )
In the second round , the result is : Sanders 36.4 % , Biden 21.5 % , Buttigieg 15.5 % .
Sanders collects the most delegates and comes out of Iowa strong .
But here ’ s the devastating thing .
Because of the structure of the Iowa caucus voting system , a tiny switch could result in a completely opposite @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and Warren ’ s vote totals are swapped .
In the first round , Warren gets 15.5 % and Buttigieg gets 14 % .
What happens in the second round ?
Warren ’ s votes do not go to Sanders .
Instead , Buttigieg ’ s go to Biden : Result : Biden 35.9 % , Sanders 22 % , Warren 15.5 % .
Headline the next day : BIDEN DEFEATS SANDERS BY 13 POINTS .
Never mind that Sanders was the second choice of all the Warren voters .
It doesn ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , his frontrunner status is restored , people in the press stop talking about the possibility of Sanders winning the presidency , Sanders doesn ’ t get the Nevada and South Carolina endorsements that would have come out of a strong caucus showing .
The campaign limps on , and will struggle to catch up .
( The state apportionment of delegates is more complicated than this , but this is how the voting itself will go . )
In fact , it ’ s even more perilous than that .
Even if @ @ @ @ @ @ @ round , if , say , enough Tom Steyer and Amy Klobuchar supporters come over to join her , she can remain viable for the second round , meaning that her voters would not go to Sanders and enough Klobuchar people might go to Biden to help him win even if together Warren and Sanders have a far higher percentage of voters .
If , say , Warren got 15 % , and Buttigieg ’ s 14 % and Klobuchar ’ s 10 % all went to Biden , Biden would win in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ increases the chances that Biden will be the ultimate nominee .
This is what happens when progressives “ split the vote ” .
It runs the catastrophic risk of destroying the chances of having a progressive presidency , and handing the nomination to the truly awful Biden .
The unique dynamics of the Iowa caucus may mean that the entire Sanders campaign is severely damaged if Warren breaks 15 % and Buttigieg and Klobuchar don ’ t .
Sanders people need to persuade Iowans not to vote for Warren .
( And maybe @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at least don ’ t do anything to undermine him .
We need him not to drop below 15 % . )
Every time progressive organizations treat a vote for Warren and a vote for Sanders as equally furthering the progressive cause , or call for “ unity ” without rallying behind a single candidate , they make it more likely that progressives will all lose .
Everyone volunteering for Warren might as well be working for Biden .
To prevent a Biden nomination , the time to unite is now .
Warren @ @ @ @ @ @ @ volunteers , got more donations and is doing substantially better in the polls .
Now that the actual voting is starting , progressives can not afford to split their bloc .
They need to unify behind Sanders .
In These Times and the Nation have both run articles pushing the narrative that you can support and like both .
I am sure many people do .
But don ’ t actually vote for Warren .
Divided support is destroying the chances of a progressive presidency .
Let ’ s remember the stakes : @ @ @ @ @ @ @ would not fare well against Donald Trump .
But even if he was elected , nobody seriously believes he can accomplish anything meaningful .
He has said as much himself : “ Nothing would fundamentally change.
” So much for solving climate change .
We can not afford four more years of Trump .
And we have an unprecedented opportunity to throw him out and replace him with something far , far better .
How tragic would it be if that opportunity was destroyed because some clung to a losing candidate , dividing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ How will history look back on this ?
Will the Warren campaign ’ s jeopardizing of this chance have seemed worth it ?

Let’s look at where things stand with the Democratic candidates in Iowa as of right now, according to FiveThirtyEight:
1 Sanders: 22.0% 2 Biden 21.5% 3 Buttigieg 15.5% 4 Warren 14.4% 5 Klobuchar 10.2% 6 Yang 3.6% 7 Steyer 3.5%
If you’re a Bernie Sanders supporter, you might be thinking: “OK, we’re in a good position. It’s close but we’re a little bit ahead.”
But even if that number holds, Sanders might actually be crushed in Iowa, thanks to the unusual voting system there and particular effect of candidate No 4. Sanders supporters need to do everything possible to keep people who like both Elizabeth Warren and their candidate from actually voting for Warren.
At an Iowa caucus site, there are two rounds of voting. In the first round, a candidate must get at least 15% to stay in for the second round. If they get less than 15%, their voters are released and can support another candidate.
So in the second round, candidates are hoping to pick up the voters who supported the ones who lost in the first. Delegate totals are based on the numbers from the second round.
Let’s assume for the moment that in one given location, all Pete Buttigieg voters have Joe Biden as their second choice, and all Warren supporters have Sanders as their second choice. I am simplifying, but this will be the trend. And let’s assume that in the first round of voting, the result exactly matches FiveThirtyEight’s polling.
What happens? Well, Sanders, Biden and Buttigieg all break 15% and keep their votes. Warren does not crack 15% so she gets no delegates and her voters are released. Sanders picks up Warren’s 14.4% while Biden picks up nothing. (Let us temporarily forget all the other candidates exist, which is not difficult.)
In the second round, the result is: Sanders 36.4%, Biden 21.5%, Buttigieg 15.5%. Sanders collects the most delegates and comes out of Iowa strong.
But here’s the devastating thing. Because of the structure of the Iowa caucus voting system, a tiny switch could result in a completely opposite outcome.
Let’s say Buttigieg and Warren’s vote totals are swapped. In the first round, Warren gets 15.5% and Buttigieg gets 14%. What happens in the second round? Warren’s votes do not go to Sanders. Instead, Buttigieg’s go to Biden: Result: Biden 35.9%, Sanders 22%, Warren 15.5%.
Headline the next day: BIDEN DEFEATS SANDERS BY 13 POINTS.
Never mind that Sanders was the second choice of all the Warren voters. It doesn’t matter. Joe crushes the caucus, his frontrunner status is restored, people in the press stop talking about the possibility of Sanders winning the presidency, Sanders doesn’t get the Nevada and South Carolina endorsements that would have come out of a strong caucus showing. The campaign limps on, and will struggle to catch up. (The state apportionment of delegates is more complicated than this, but this is how the voting itself will go.)
In fact, it’s even more perilous than that. Even if Warren gets 14% in the first round, if, say, enough Tom Steyer and Amy Klobuchar supporters come over to join her, she can remain viable for the second round, meaning that her voters would not go to Sanders and enough Klobuchar people might go to Biden to help him win even if together Warren and Sanders have a far higher percentage of voters. If, say, Warren got 15%, and Buttigieg’s 14% and Klobuchar’s 10% all went to Biden, Biden would win in a landslide.
Supporting Warren therefore drastically increases the chances that Biden will be the ultimate nominee. This is what happens when progressives “split the vote”. It runs the catastrophic risk of destroying the chances of having a progressive presidency, and handing the nomination to the truly awful Biden.
The unique dynamics of the Iowa caucus may mean that the entire Sanders campaign is severely damaged if Warren breaks 15% and Buttigieg and Klobuchar don’t. Sanders people need to persuade Iowans not to vote for Warren. (And maybe give Buttigieg a little bump, or at least don’t do anything to undermine him. We need him not to drop below 15%.)
Every time progressive organizations treat a vote for Warren and a vote for Sanders as equally furthering the progressive cause, or call for “unity” without rallying behind a single candidate, they make it more likely that progressives will all lose. Everyone volunteering for Warren might as well be working for Biden.
To prevent a Biden nomination, the time to unite is now. Warren had a chance: Sanders amassed more volunteers, got more donations and is doing substantially better in the polls. Now that the actual voting is starting, progressives cannot afford to split their bloc. They need to unify behind Sanders.
In These Times and the Nation have both run articles pushing the narrative that you can support and like both. I am sure many people do. But don’t actually vote for Warren. Divided support is destroying the chances of a progressive presidency.
Let’s remember the stakes: there are good reasons to think Biden would not fare well against Donald Trump. But even if he was elected, nobody seriously believes he can accomplish anything meaningful. He has said as much himself: “Nothing would fundamentally change.” So much for solving climate change.
We cannot afford four more years of Trump. And we have an unprecedented opportunity to throw him out and replace him with something far, far better. How tragic would it be if that opportunity was destroyed because some clung to a losing candidate, dividing the movement and squandering precious votes?
How will history look back on this? Will the Warren campaign’s jeopardizing of this chance have seemed worth it?


theguardian--2020-02-02--The Guardian view on Trump’s impeachment trial: the perils of outrageous immunity | Editorial

The line that best sums up last week ’ s Senate impeachment trial of Donald Trump probably comes from the lips of Omar Little , the stickup artist who robs drug dealers in HBO ’ s the Wire .
“ You come at the king , ” warned Mr Little “ you best not miss ” .
The truth came for Mr Trump but after the smoke cleared on Friday , the president was still standing .
He remains in the Oval Office because almost every Republican senator preferred being in power to upholding the democratic principles upon which the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Trump will have defied justice .
He will then be free to continue his campaign of grievance and resentment safe in the knowledge that there is no genuine check on his executive overreach .
The Grand Old Party has offered up its soul in exchange for Mr Trump ’ s gutting of environmental regulations , appointing conservative judges and cutting taxes for the rich .
GOP representatives are repeatedly caught looking the other way over Mr Trump ’ s corruption , lawbreaking and manifest unfitness for office .
They do so in part @ @ @ @ @ @ @ they risk being “ primaried ” by pro-Trump Republicans .
Jeff Flake , an ex-Republican senator , thought “ at least 35 ” former colleagues would vote to convict the president and have him removed from office if there were a secret vote .
Edmund Burke ’ s warning that “ the only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing ” ought to ring in their ears .
Republican senators , with notable exceptions , have put their ambitions ahead of their country .
The GOP @ @ @ @ @ @ @ wrongdoing at the impeachment trial .
The danger was that the evidence would have been so damning as to undercut Republican supporters ’ belief that Mr Trump is acting for them rather than himself .
In accepting the preposterous argument put forward by Mr Trump ’ s lawyer that any action a president takes to help his chances of re-election is in the national interest , Republicans have set in train damaging consequences for the US .
The president ’ s legal team claimed they had been misquoted , though they have made @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as Mr Trump couldn ’ t be prosecuted if he murdered someone while in office – before .
That this was swallowed by GOP senators reveals the constitutionally dangerous nature of the moment .
One columnist noted Mr Trump could now do “ far more than solicit dirt [ on his rivals ] from foreign governments .
He could have his political opponents arrested or he could promise pardons to supporters who physically intimidated Democratic voters.
” This week Mr Trump will deliver the State of the Union address from the House chamber @ @ @ @ @ @ @ He could use the presidency as a bully pulpit to bring out the best in civic life .
But he will not .
The president wants voters less interested in integrity and empathy .
Mr Trump will speak of a “ great American comeback ” .
Ever the malignant narcissist , the reference will surely and unmistakably be to himself rather than the country .
The US president dismissed impeachment as a “ coup ” in which he was the victim rather than the villain .
It is depressing that such language strikes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ base , but unsurprising .
They have been fired up by a supportive media which acts as an amplifier for his conspiracy theories .
By Monday evening Americans will know the result in the first nominating contest of the 2020 election , when Iowa ’ s Democratic party reveals the state ’ s winner .
Whoever triumphs , Mr Trump will no doubt target and expand his odious culture war into new territory .
With a majority in the House , Democrats were right to push for impeachment that provided for Mr Trump @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Republican party must ask itself when it would be prepared to turn against their norm-violating president .
What if in a close re-election this year Mr Trump does not accept the result ( something he has hinted at ) ?
What will be the response of the Republican party and its surrogates in the media ?
Will they continue to back the idea that Mr Trump is right to push the boundaries of his power at any cost – even that of liberal democracy itself ?
Let us hope not .

The line that best sums up last week’s Senate impeachment trial of Donald Trump probably comes from the lips of Omar Little, the stickup artist who robs drug dealers in HBO’s the Wire. “You come at the king,” warned Mr Little “you best not miss”. The truth came for Mr Trump but after the smoke cleared on Friday, the president was still standing. He remains in the Oval Office because almost every Republican senator preferred being in power to upholding the democratic principles upon which the US was founded. By Wednesday Mr Trump will have defied justice. He will then be free to continue his campaign of grievance and resentment safe in the knowledge that there is no genuine check on his executive overreach.
The Grand Old Party has offered up its soul in exchange for Mr Trump’s gutting of environmental regulations, appointing conservative judges and cutting taxes for the rich. GOP representatives are repeatedly caught looking the other way over Mr Trump’s corruption, lawbreaking and manifest unfitness for office. They do so in part because if they did speak out, they risk being “primaried” by pro-Trump Republicans. Jeff Flake, an ex-Republican senator, thought “at least 35” former colleagues would vote to convict the president and have him removed from office if there were a secret vote. The warning, widely attributed to Edmund Burke, that “the only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing” ought to ring in their ears.
Republican senators, with notable exceptions, have put their ambitions ahead of their country. The GOP was not interested in hearing evidence of wrongdoing at the impeachment trial. The danger was that the evidence would have been so damning as to undercut Republican supporters’ belief that Mr Trump is acting for them rather than himself. In accepting the preposterous argument put forward by Mr Trump’s lawyer that any action a president takes to help his chances of re-election is in the national interest, Republicans have set in train damaging consequences for the US. The president’s legal team claimed they had been misquoted, though they have made outrageous claims of limitless immunity – such as Mr Trump couldn’t be prosecuted if he murdered someone while in office – before. That this was swallowed by GOP senators reveals the constitutionally dangerous nature of the moment. One columnist noted Mr Trump could now do “far more than solicit dirt [on his rivals] from foreign governments. He could have his political opponents arrested or he could promise pardons to supporters who physically intimidated Democratic voters.”
This week Mr Trump will deliver the State of the Union address from the House chamber where he was impeached in December. He could use the presidency as a bully pulpit to bring out the best in civic life. But he will not. The president wants voters less interested in integrity and empathy. Mr Trump will speak of a “great American comeback”. Ever the malignant narcissist, the reference will surely and unmistakably be to himself rather than the country.
The US president dismissed impeachment as a “coup” in which he was the victim rather than the villain. It is depressing that such language strikes a chord with Mr Trump’s base, but unsurprising. They have been fired up by a supportive media which acts as an amplifier for his conspiracy theories. By Monday evening Americans will know the result in the first nominating contest of the 2020 election, when Iowa’s Democratic party reveals the state’s winner. Whoever triumphs, Mr Trump will no doubt target and expand his odious culture war into new territory. With a majority in the House, Democrats were right to push for impeachment that provided for Mr Trump’s exit. In ducking this the Republican party must ask itself when it would be prepared to turn against their norm-violating president. What if in a close re-election this year Mr Trump does not accept the result (something he has hinted at)? What will be the response of the Republican party and its surrogates in the media? Will they continue to back the idea that Mr Trump is right to push the boundaries of his power at any cost – even that of liberal democracy itself? Let us hope not.


theguardian--2020-02-02--The Guardian view on deep sea exploration: murky waters ahead | Editorial

The 60th anniversary of the expedition that first took humans to the highest spot on earth – the peak of Everest – was widely celebrated seven years ago .
The 60th anniversary of the first expedition to its deepest point has gone almost unnoticed .
Yet that trip to the bottom of the Challenger Deep , at the southern end of the Mariana Trench in the Pacific Ocean , was an equally remarkable feat and has rarely been repeated .
While thousands of climbers have since climbed Everest in the footsteps of Tenzing Norgay and Edmund Hillary , only two @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Jacques Piccard and Don Walsh , who reached the bottom in 1960 .
It was not until 2012 that film-maker James Cameron conducted a solo dive to the almost 11km-deep valley , collecting samples and video .
Last year , explorer Victor Vescovo followed suit .
True , other reaches , not quite as distant , have been better explored .
But though more than half the world is covered by ocean more than 200m deep – the point at which the sunlight fades and one enters the twilight zone – it was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ deep sea for the first time .
Though scientists have since discovered extraordinary creatures and features , much remains to be discovered .
The reaches of the sea beneath 6km are known as the hadal zone , taking their name from the underworld of the ancient Greeks : the depth of the Mariana Trench ensures it is perpetually dark , and that temperatures are only just above freezing .
Yet we are discovering that if it is an inhospitable space for humans , it is far from deserted .
Four years ago , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ operated vessel allowed ordinary viewers to see the abundant , though “ not very diverse ” , life to be found down there .
The area now enjoys protection , escaping unscathed after it was listed as one of the 27 national monuments that Donald Trump placed under review in 2017 .
Other parts of the deep sea are at immediate risk .
Even as researchers increase their ability to explore this world , the race is on to exploit it .
An analysis published last month in the journal One Earth warned @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ blue acceleration ” , the recent rise in marine industrialisation , which includes seabed mineral mining .
Greenpeace warned last year that 29 ocean-floor exploration licences had been issued , covering an area totalling 1.3 million sq km – threatening to worsen the climate emergency by disrupting carbon stores in seafloor sediments , as well as destroying barely explored habitats that might offer extraordinary scientific insights – and even new medicines .
Though the UN is supposed to wrap up a global ocean treaty this year , many campaigners are pessimistic about @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of protection they believe is needed .
Governments must do better .
To fall short would not only threaten the habitats and creatures of the deep , but humans too , however unlikely most of us are to ever venture down there .

The 60th anniversary of the expedition that first took humans to the highest spot on earth – the peak of Everest – was widely celebrated seven years ago. The 60th anniversary of the first expedition to its deepest point has gone almost unnoticed. Yet that trip to the bottom of the Challenger Deep, at the southern end of the Mariana Trench in the Pacific Ocean, was an equally remarkable feat and has rarely been repeated.
While thousands of climbers have since climbed Everest in the footsteps of Tenzing Norgay and Edmund Hillary, only two more people have followed the route of Jacques Piccard and Don Walsh, who reached the bottom in 1960. It was not until 2012 that film-maker James Cameron conducted a solo dive to the almost 11km-deep valley, collecting samples and video. Last year, explorer Victor Vescovo followed suit.
True, other reaches, not quite as distant, have been better explored. But though more than half the world is covered by ocean more than 200m deep – the point at which the sunlight fades and one enters the twilight zone – it was not until 1930 that humans reached the deep sea for the first time. Though scientists have since discovered extraordinary creatures and features, much remains to be discovered.
The reaches of the sea beneath 6km are known as the hadal zone, taking their name from the underworld of the ancient Greeks: the depth of the Mariana Trench ensures it is perpetually dark, and that temperatures are only just above freezing. Yet we are discovering that if it is an inhospitable space for humans, it is far from deserted. Four years ago, a live video feed from a remotely operated vessel allowed ordinary viewers to see the abundant, though “not very diverse”, life to be found down there. The area now enjoys protection, escaping unscathed after it was listed as one of the 27 national monuments that Donald Trump placed under review in 2017.
Other parts of the deep sea are at immediate risk. Even as researchers increase their ability to explore this world, the race is on to exploit it. An analysis published last month in the journal One Earth warned of the threat to the oceans from “blue acceleration”, the recent rise in marine industrialisation, which includes seabed mineral mining.
Greenpeace warned last year that 29 ocean-floor exploration licences had been issued, covering an area totalling 1.3 million sq km – threatening to worsen the climate emergency by disrupting carbon stores in seafloor sediments, as well as destroying barely explored habitats that might offer extraordinary scientific insights – and even new medicines. Though the UN is supposed to wrap up a global ocean treaty this year, many campaigners are pessimistic about the prospect of it offering the kind of protection they believe is needed. Governments must do better. To fall short would not only threaten the habitats and creatures of the deep, but humans too, however unlikely most of us are to ever venture down there.