theguardian--2020-10-29--Biden and Obama to campaign in battleground state Michigan as election day nears – live

Here ’ s some more analysis of that US supreme court decision to reject a last-minute plea from Pennsylvania Republicans to overturn a three-day extension of the absentee ballot deadline .
Pennsylvania usually requires ballots to arrive by 8pm on election night in order to count .
But last month , the state supreme court extended that deadline by three days for ballots postmarked by election day , a move likely to allow thousands of late-arriving ballots to count .
Pennsylvania Republicans asked the US supreme court to halt that ruling pending appeal , but it declined to do so @ @ @ @ @ @ @ no explanation for its decision .
The Pennsylvania Republican party then asked the court to expedite the case , which the court again declined to do on Wednesday .
Justice Amy Coney Barrett , who formally joined the court this week , did not participate in the case because the case needed to be resolved quickly and she did not have time to review the briefings in the case , the supreme court ’ s public information office said in a statement .
Despite Wednesday ’ s ruling , three of the court @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Neil Gorsuch , and Clarence Thomas – signaled the court may still consider the case after the election .
The Pennsylvania supreme court ’ s ruling “ likely violates the federal constitution ” , Alito wrote for the three , and its decision “ could lead to serious post-election problems ” .
Pennsylvania ’ s top election official also instructed counties to segregate ballots that arrived after 8pm on election day from ones that arrived before .
The three conservative justices also voiced support for the view that state supreme courts have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for federal elections , a view justice Brett Kavanaugh voiced on Monday .
That view could come into play in post-election disputes in states like North Carolina and Pennsylvania –which have Republican controlled-legislatures but Democratic majorities on the supreme court .
In the future , the lack of oversight from state courts could give state lawmakers far more leeway to pass laws that make it harder to vote .
Richard Hasen , a law professor at the University of California , Irvine , wrote in a blogpost that he was skeptical that the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ after the election given that Pennsylvania voters are being instructed that they do not have to return their ballots by election day in order to have them count .
“ Without Roberts and Kavanaugh going along , even if justice Barrett participated in future cases , there would not be five justices to throw out those ballots .
It is still a theoretical possibility , however , especially with ballots now being segregated between those arriving by the original statutory deadline and later ballots , ” he wrote .
“ Hopefully the election @ @ @ @ @ @ @ PA or the electoral college and the issue becomes moot in this election .
”

Lauren Aratani (now), Joan E Greve, Martin Belam and Tom McCarthy (earlier)


theguardian--2020-10-28--US supreme court bars Republican bids to shorten vote-by-mail deadlines in two states

The US supreme court has rejected a last-minute plea from Pennsylvania Republicans to overturn a three-day extension of the absentee ballot deadline , a hugely consequential ruling in one of the most closely watched swing states in the presidential election .
The state usually requires ballots to arrive by 8pm on election night in order to count .
But last month , the Pennsylvania supreme court extended that deadline by three days for ballots postmarked by election day , a move likely to allow thousands of late-arriving ballots to count .
Pennsylvania Republicans asked the US supreme court to halt @ @ @ @ @ @ @ declined to do so last week , deadlocking 4-4 and offering no explanation for its decision .
The Pennsylvania Republican party then asked the court to expedite the case , which the court again declined to do on Wednesday .
Wednesday ’ s decision is the latest in a series on important rulings on absentee ballots in key swing states .
Shortly after Pennsylvania , the supreme court also declined to block an agreement giving North Carolina voters more time to return their absentee ballots .
Despite Wednesday ’ s ruling on Pennsylvania @ @ @ @ @ @ @ conservative justices – Samuel Alito , Neil Gorsuch , and Clarence Thomas – signaled the court might still consider the case after the election .
The Pennsylvania supreme court ’ s ruling “ likely violates the federal constitution ” , Alito wrote for the three , and its decision “ could lead to serious post-election problems ” .
Prior to the court ’ s decision , Pennsylvania ’ s top election official instructed counties to segregate ballots that arrived after 8pm on election day from ones that arrived before .
The move appeared @ @ @ @ @ @ @ future court ruling could target just the late-arriving ballots without affecting those that made the deadline .
“ This was a careful decision designed to ensure all eligible Pennsylvania votes will be counted and to stave off anticipated legal challenges from Donald Trump and his enablers , ” the state attorney general , Josh Shapiro , told the court , according to the Wall Street Journal .
North Carolina state law allows voters to return ballots up to three days after elections , as long as they are postmarked by election day .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ board of elections , the top elections body in the state , agreed to extend that deadline until 12 November , in an effort to settle a lawsuit .
North Carolina Republicans , who control the state legislature , challenged that extension and asked the supreme court to overturn it .
Earlier this week , the court stepped in and blocked a six day extension of the ballot receipt deadline in Wisconsin .
Both the North Carolina and Pennsylvania cases , where the court declined to intervene , involved disputes over state law @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Wisconsin , where the court did intervene , the case was limited to the federal court .
In the Pennsylvania ruling , the three conservative justices also voiced support for the view that state supreme courts have limited authority to second-guess legislatures on rules for federal elections , a view Justice Brett Kavanaugh voiced on Monday .
That view could come into play in post-election disputes in states like North Carolina and Pennsylvania – which have Republican-controlled legislatures but Democratic majorities on the supreme court .
In the future , the lack of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lawmakers far more leeway to pass laws that make it harder to vote .
The court offered no explanation for its decision in North Carolina case , which is not unusual for cases such as this , which come before it on an emergency basis .
Gorsuch , Alito , and Thomas all said they would have blocked the extension .
Writing on behalf of the three , Gorsuch said the state board had exceeded its authority .
He noted the state legislature has the power to set election rules and had issued @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , but left the ballot receipt deadline intact .
Justice Amy Coney Barrett , who formally joined the court this week , did not participate in the case because the case needed to be resolved quickly and she did not have time to review the briefings in the case , the supreme court ’ s public information office said in a statement .
Richard Hasen , a law professor at the University of California , Irvine , wrote in a blogpost that he was skeptical that the court would throw out late-arriving ballots @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are being instructed that they do not have to return their ballots by election day in order to have them count .
“ Without Roberts and Kavanaugh going along , even if Justice Barrett participated in future cases , there would not be five justices to throw out those ballots .
It is still a theoretical possibility , however , especially with ballots now being segregated between those arriving by the original statutory deadline and later ballots , ” he wrote .
“ Hopefully the election will not be close enough in either @ @ @ @ @ @ @ issue becomes moot in this election.
” In the Wisconsin case , Chief Justice John Roberts sided with the court ’ s conservative justices to reinstate the state ’ s deadline that all ballots must be received by election day .
In a brief explanation Monday , Roberts said the Pennsylvania case was different because it concerned an interpretation of law from a state court , while the Wisconsin case was all in federal court .

The US supreme court has rejected a last-minute plea from Pennsylvania Republicans to overturn a three-day extension of the absentee ballot deadline, a hugely consequential ruling in one of the most closely watched swing states in the presidential election.
The state usually requires ballots to arrive by 8pm on election night in order to count. But last month, the Pennsylvania supreme court extended that deadline by three days for ballots postmarked by election day, a move likely to allow thousands of late-arriving ballots to count.
Pennsylvania Republicans asked the US supreme court to halt that ruling pending appeal, but it declined to do so last week, deadlocking 4-4 and offering no explanation for its decision. The Pennsylvania Republican party then asked the court to expedite the case, which the court again declined to do on Wednesday.
Wednesday’s decision is the latest in a series on important rulings on absentee ballots in key swing states. Shortly after Pennsylvania, the supreme court also declined to block an agreement giving North Carolina voters more time to return their absentee ballots.
Despite Wednesday’s ruling on Pennsylvania, three of the court’s conservative justices – Samuel Alito, Neil Gorsuch and Clarence Thomas – signaled the court might still consider the case after the election. The Pennsylvania supreme court’s ruling “likely violates the federal constitution”, Alito wrote for the three, and its decision “could lead to serious post-election problems”.
Before the court’s decision, Pennsylvania’s top election official instructed counties to segregate ballots that arrived after 8pm on election day from ones that arrived before. The move appeared to be an attempt to ensure any future court ruling could target just the late-arriving ballots without affecting those that made the deadline.
“This was a careful decision designed to ensure all eligible Pennsylvania votes will be counted and to stave off anticipated legal challenges from Donald Trump and his enablers,” the state attorney general, Josh Shapiro, told the court, according to the Wall Street Journal.
North Carolina state law allows voters to return ballots up to three days after elections, as long as they are postmarked by election day. But earlier, the North Carolina state board of elections, the top elections body in the state, agreed to extend that deadline until 12 November, in an effort to settle a lawsuit. North Carolina Republicans, who control the state legislature, challenged that extension and asked the supreme court to overturn it.
Earlier this week, the court stepped in and blocked a six-day extension of the ballot receipt deadline in Wisconsin. Both the North Carolina and Pennsylvania cases, where the court declined to intervene, involved disputes over state law tied up in state courts. In Wisconsin, where the court did intervene, the case was limited to the federal court.
In the Pennsylvania ruling, the three conservative justices also voiced support for the view that state supreme courts have limited authority to second-guess legislatures on rules for federal elections, a view Justice Brett Kavanaugh voiced on Monday. That view could come into play in post-election disputes in states like North Carolina and Pennsylvania – which have Republican-controlled legislatures but Democratic majorities on the supreme court. In the future, the lack of oversight from state courts could give state lawmakers far more leeway to pass laws that make it harder to vote.
The court offered no explanation for its decision in the North Carolina case, which is not unusual for cases such as this, which come before it on an emergency basis. Gorsuch, Alito and Thomas all said they would have blocked the extension. Writing on behalf of the three, Gorsuch said the state board had exceeded its authority. He noted the state legislature has the power to set election rules and had issued a series of changes earlier this year, but left the ballot receipt deadline intact.
05:32 Voter suppression: how Trump is undermining the US election – video explainer
Justice Amy Coney Barrett, who formally joined the court this week, did not participate in the case because the case needed to be resolved quickly and she did not have time to review the briefings in the case, the supreme court’s public information office said in a statement.
Richard Hasen, a law professor at the University of California, Irvine, wrote in a blogpost that he was skeptical that the court would throw out late-arriving ballots after the election given that Pennsylvania voters are being instructed that they do not have to return their ballots by election day in order to have them count.
“Without Roberts and Kavanaugh going along, even if Justice Barrett participated in future cases, there would not be five justices to throw out those ballots. It is still a theoretical possibility, however, especially with ballots now being segregated between those arriving by the original statutory deadline and later ballots,” he wrote. “Hopefully the election will not be close enough in either PA or the electoral college and the issue becomes moot in this election.”
In the Wisconsin case, Chief Justice John Roberts sided with the court’s conservative justices to reinstate the state’s deadline that all ballots must be received by election day. In a brief explanation on Monday, Roberts said the Pennsylvania case was different because it concerned an interpretation of law from a state court, while the Wisconsin case was all in federal court.


theguardian--2020-10-28--Trump supporters hospitalized after being stranded in freezing cold at late-night rally

Seven people have been hospitalized after attendees of a late-night Trump rally at an airport in Omaha , Nebraska , were stranded in the cold .
A large portion of the crowd , estimated to be in the thousands , remained at the site waiting on buses hours after Trump ’ s plane had departed , according to reporters on the scene .
Outside temperatures were about at the freezing point .
The problem was blamed on limited traffic flow on the two-lane road that led to the site of the rally .
The Washington Post reported that Trump supporters @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Omaha ’ s Eppley Airfield .
It said many elderly supporters of Trump were among those stranded .
Omaha police said in a written statement that first responders dealt with 30 people for medical reasons throughout the day and seven were sent to hospital .
Police-monitoring sites on social media reported that some people suffered adverse effects from temperatures hovering around 30F ( -1C ) as they waited for shuttle buses or tried to walk to their cars more than two miles away following the rally .
“ Many people underestimated the distance @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lot on foot , ” officer Michael Pecha , spokesman for Omaha police , said in the statement .
Police said 40 buses were used to shuttle 25,000 people over a 10-hour period , starting at 10am , to the event site , although an undisclosed number left before the rally ended , police said .
Traffic became snarled , and awaiting buses which can hold about 50 riders each were overwhelmed when crowds left the event around 9pm , police said .
Additional buses were called in to try to get people @ @ @ @ @ @ @ last of the rally goers were able to leave around midnight .
Trump ’ s deputy national press secretary Samantha Zager said in a statement that the 40 shuttle buses the event deployed was twice the number usually deployed at Trump campaign rallies .
But “ local road closures and resulting congestion caused delays ” , she said .
“ At the guest departure location , we had tents , heaters , generators , hot cocoa , and handwarmers available for guests , ” Zager said .
“ We always strive to provide @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and we care about their safety.
” Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden on Wednesday used the image of Omaha supporters left in the cold after the rally to criticise Trump ’ s handling of the coronavirus pandemic .
“ It ’ s an image that captured President Trump ’ s whole approach to this crisis , ” Biden said .
Trump was in Omaha because it shares a media market with a lot of Iowa , where the president appears to be trailing Biden despite winning the state in 2016 by almost 19 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ electoral votes by congressional district – Maine does too but every other state is winner-takes-all – and the second congressional district in Douglas County that is polling strongly for Biden , potentially giving the Democrat its one electoral vote , as it did for Obama in 2008 .

Seven people have been hospitalized after attendees of a late-night Trump rally at an airport in Omaha, Nebraska, were stranded in the cold.
A large portion of the crowd, estimated to be in the thousands, remained at the site waiting on buses hours after Trump’s plane had departed, according to reporters on the scene. Outside temperatures were about at the freezing point.
The problem was blamed on limited traffic flow on the two-lane road that led to the site of the rally.
If you’re waiting on someone who attended the @realDonaldTrump rally in #Omaha, it may be a while until they get on a bus and get out. Traffic along the small roadway to the private side of Eppley Airfield is backed up and buses were having trouble getting through. We saw this: pic.twitter.com/DTRKnH5lkb — Aaron Sanderford (@asanderford) October 28, 2020
The Washington Post reported that Trump supporters were stuck after the president spoke at Omaha’s Eppley Airfield. It said many elderly supporters of Trump were among those stranded.
Omaha police said in a written statement that first responders dealt with 30 people for medical reasons throughout the day and seven were sent to hospital.
Thousands of people left out in the cold and stranded in #Omaha, #Nebraska after a #Trump rally. I’m told the shuttles aren’t operating & there aren’t enough busses. Police didn’t seem to know what to do. Some walked. I saw at least one woman getting medical attention. pic.twitter.com/oIkmixaZt0 — Jeff Paul (@Jeff_Paul) October 28, 2020
Police-monitoring sites on social media reported that some people suffered adverse effects from temperatures hovering around 30F (-1C) as they waited for shuttle buses or tried to walk to their cars more than two miles away following the rally.
“Many people underestimated the distance from the event back to the parking lot on foot,” officer Michael Pecha, spokesman for Omaha police, said in the statement.
Police said 40 buses were used to shuttle 25,000 people over a 10-hour period, starting at 10am, to the event site, although an undisclosed number left before the rally ended, police said.
Traffic became snarled, and awaiting buses which can hold about 50 riders each were overwhelmed when crowds left the event around 9pm, police said. Additional buses were called in to try to get people to their cars.
Police said the last of the rally goers were able to leave around midnight.
Trump’s deputy national press secretary Samantha Zager said in a statement that the 40 shuttle buses the event deployed was twice the number usually deployed at Trump campaign rallies. But “local road closures and resulting congestion caused delays”, she said.
“At the guest departure location, we had tents, heaters, generators, hot cocoa, and handwarmers available for guests,” Zager said. “We always strive to provide the best guest experience at our events and we care about their safety.”
Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden on Wednesday used the image of Omaha supporters left in the cold after the rally to criticise Trump’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic.
“It’s an image that captured President Trump’s whole approach to this crisis,” Biden said.
Trump was in Omaha because it shares a media market with a lot of Iowa, where the president appears to be trailing Biden despite winning the state in 2016 by almost 10 points. Also, Nebraska splits its electoral votes by congressional district – Maine does too but every other state is winner-takes-all – and the second congressional district in Douglas County that is polling strongly for Biden, potentially giving the Democrat its one electoral vote, as it did for Obama in 2008.


theguardian--2020-10-28--US election polls tracker: who is leading in swing states, Trump or Biden?

Joe Biden is leading Donald Trump in the national polls for the presidential election .
But that doesn ’ t guarantee the Democratic candidate victory .
Hillary Clinton also had a clear lead over Trump in the polls for almost the entire 2016 campaign .
She ended up losing in the electoral college .
Because the presidential voting system assigns each state a number of electoral college votes , which go to the state ’ s victor regardless of the margin of victory ( with the exception of Nebraska and Maine ) , a handful of swing states will probably @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by campaigners .
Each day , the Guardian ’ s poll tracker takes a rolling 14-day average of the polls in eight swing states .
In order to track how the race is developing in the areas that could decide the election , six of the eight states we focused on were those that flipped to Trump in 2016 after backing Barack Obama in 2012 .
Arizona and North Carolina were also added due to what they might tell us about a shifting electoral landscape – they could emerge as vital new swing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that the polls – particularly some swing state polls – severely undercounted Trump supporters in 2016 .
We are not certain , despite assurances , that they they have corrected this .
Additionally , they may be over-counting Democratic support ( more people may say they will vote for Biden than actually turn out ) .
We present the latest polls with those caveats in mind .
While the national poll tracker is a poor indicator of how the crucial swing states will sway the election , a strong polling lead across the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will develop .
Each day , the Guardian ’ s national poll tracker takes a 14-day average of national voting intention polls .
On Tuesday 3 November 2020 , Americans will vote for their next president , with a choice between Donald Trump , the Republican incumbent , or his Democratic challenger , Joe Biden .
The Guardian poll tracker tracks the latest polls in eight crucial swing states .
For Biden to win , he needs to reclaim some of these swing states .
The Guardian is collating polls in each of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ set of national polls .
Polls are assessed for their reliability by looking at factors such as their sample size .
Our polling average is a 14-day rolling average : on any day , we collate any polls published in the last 14 days and take a mean average of their results .
If any company has conducted multiple polls in the last 14 days , we average out their polling results in order to give them just one entry .
After this standardization process , we take a mean average of these @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
• None This article was amended on 28 October 2020 to clarify that Maine and Nebraska are alone in assigning their electoral college votes in proportion to the popular vote .

Ashley Kirk, Pablo Gutiérrez, Frank Hulley-Jones and Juweek Adolphe

Joe Biden is leading Donald Trump in the national polls for the presidential election.
But that doesn’t guarantee the Democratic candidate victory. Hillary Clinton also had a clear lead over Trump in the polls for almost the entire 2016 campaign. She ended up losing in the electoral college.
Because the presidential voting system assigns each state a number of electoral college votes, which go to the state’s victor regardless of the margin of victory (with the exception of Nebraska and Maine), a handful of swing states will probably decide the election and be targeted heavily by campaigners.
Each day, the Guardian’s poll tracker takes a rolling 14-day average of the polls in eight swing states.
In order to track how the race is developing in the areas that could decide the election, six of the eight states we focused on were those that flipped to Trump in 2016 after backing Barack Obama in 2012. Arizona and North Carolina were also added due to what they might tell us about a shifting electoral landscape – they could emerge as vital new swing states this year.
We must caution that the polls – particularly some swing state polls – severely undercounted Trump supporters in 2016. We are not certain, despite assurances, that they they have corrected this. Additionally, they may be over-counting Democratic support (more people may say they will vote for Biden than actually turn out).
We present the latest polls with those caveats in mind.
The national polls
The latest polling average puts Biden ahead of Trump nationally.
While the national poll tracker is a poor indicator of how the crucial swing states will sway the election, a strong polling lead across the country can point to how the race will develop.
Each day, the Guardian’s national poll tracker takes a 14-day average of national voting intention polls.
On Tuesday 3 November 2020, Americans will vote for their next president, with a choice between Donald Trump, the Republican incumbent, or his Democratic challenger, Joe Biden.
Methodology
The Guardian poll tracker tracks the latest polls in eight crucial swing states. For Biden to win, he needs to reclaim some of these swing states.
The Guardian is collating polls in each of these states, as well as another set of national polls. Any polls deemed unreliable – for example, because they have small sample sizes – are excluded.
Our polling average is a 14-day rolling average: on any day, we collate any polls published in the last 14 days and take a mean average of their results.
If any company has conducted multiple polls in the last 14 days, we average out their polling results in order to give them just one entry. After this standardization process, we take a mean average of these daily entries to present the polling average.


theguardian--2020-10-28--US election roundup: Trump claims he ‘ended’ the pandemic as cases surge

The deluge of early votes for Tuesday ’ s US presidential election has topped 70m – the equivalent of more than half of all votes cast in 2016 – as Donald Trump brazenly listed one of the highlights of his presidency as “ ending the Covid-19 pandemic ” .
Trump ’ s claim , delivered in a White House press release , came in a week that has seen days of record new infections , daily deaths running at almost 1,000 a day , and a 23 % increase in cases .
As the US president prepared to return to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a rally in Tampa on Thursday , Trump and his campaign continued to pursue its tactic of minimising a pandemic that has claimed at least 226,000 lives and continues to rage in many parts of the country .
While Democrat Joe Biden entered the final week of campaigning with a nine percentage point lead in national polls , the margin in key battleground states – including Florida and Pennsylvania – remained closer .
In some hotly contested states , turnout for early voting was even higher than the national figure , including Florida @ @ @ @ @ @ @ those who voted in 2016 have voted .
In Texas – which the influential Cook Political Report on Wednesday moved from “ lean Republican ” to a “ toss-up ” between Biden and Trump – the figure was 87 % .
Democratic luminaries in the state , such as former presidential candidate Beto O ’ Rourke , have been begging Biden to make a visit there in the closing days .
The campaign is offering the vice-presidential nominee , Kamala Harris , instead , who will visit Fort Worth , Houston and the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ But it was the coronavirus pandemic that continued to dominate the agenda .
Asked about Trump ’ s claim to have “ ended it ” , even the White House communications director , Alyssa Farah , struggled to defend the assertion .
“ I think that was poorly worded , ” Farah told Fox news .
“ The intent was to say that it is our goal to end the virus .
But what I would say is this , because of the president ’ s leadership , we are rounding the corner @ @ @ @ @ @ @ claimed that the coverage of coronavirus has been weaponised and exaggerated by the media to damage his chances of re-election .
“ Covid , Covid , Covid is the unified chant of the Fake News Lamestream Media , ” Trump tweeted on Wednesday .
“ They will talk about nothing else until November 4th.
, when the Election will be ( hopefully ! )
over .
Then the talk will be how low the death rate is , plenty of hospital rooms , & many tests of young people.
” Trump was seemingly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Barack Obama in Florida on Tuesday , following a similar venting about Covid coverage from the president at a rally last weekend .
“ What ’ s his closing argument ?
That people are too focused on Covid .
He said this at one of his rallies : ‘ Covid , Covid , Covid , ’ he ’ s complaining .
He ’ s jealous of Covid ’ s media coverage , ” Obama said .
Biden aimed for a far more realistic tone , in a speech in Wilmington , Delaware .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s going to take a lot of hard work to end this pandemic , ” he said .
“ I ’ m not running on the false promises of being able to end this pandemic by flipping a switch .
But I do promise this : we will start on day one doing the right things.
” He said Trump ’ s attitude towards the pandemic was “ insulting ” to the families all across America who are suffering .
Biden has said that he will listen to the science and the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s elected will be Dr Anthony Fauci , the top public health expert on the White House coronavirus taskforce , who has served presidents since 1984 but whom Trump has recently called an idiot .
On Wednesday Fauci warned in a virtual interview for Melbourne University that although he is confident a successful vaccine will be here within a few months , normal life may not be restored for Americans until late 2021 or even 2022 .
In the last week of the campaign , the dynamics of the electoral college – @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the popular vote to Hillary Clinton – appeared to be defining the campaigning schedules of the two candidates .
With Trump focusing on midwestern states he needs to hold to stay in office , Biden was planning to visit Iowa later in the week – a state Trump carried by 10 points in 2016 .
Of particular concern has been polling in Pennsylvania , where Biden ’ s current lead in a state that is key for both candidates is just 5.1 points – leading some to suggest that if polling errors seen @ @ @ @ @ @ @ might be close to a tie Commenting on the tightening Pennsylvania race , Nate Silver of the FiveThirtyEight polling website underlined its importance .
“ It is close to being a must-win for Trump , who has only a 2 % chance of winning the electoral college if he loses Pennsylvania .
Biden , however , has a bit more margin for error.
” The Biden campaign , meanwhile , announced that the candidate and Obama will campaign together at the weekend for the first time , in the battleground of Michigan .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ US supreme court rejected a last-ditch Republican effort to stop mail-in ballots being counted in Pennsylvania after election day .
And the identity of Anonymous , a Trump official who claimed there was a “ a quiet resistance ” within the administration working to save America in a 2018 New York Times op-ed , was revealed as Republican Miles Taylor , a former chief of staff at the Department of Homeland Security .
The penning of the article , and a subsequent book on the same theme , sparked a slew of media @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the identity of the author .
It also angered Donald Trump and many of his top officials , who launched a frantic and unsuccessful hunt for the mole throughout the White House staff and beyond .

Peter Beaumont and Joan E Greve in Washington

The deluge of early votes for Tuesday’s US presidential election has topped 70m – the equivalent of more than half of all votes cast in 2016 – as Donald Trump brazenly listed one of the highlights of his presidency as “ending the Covid-19 pandemic”.
Trump’s claim, delivered in a White House press release, came in a week that has seen days of record new infections, daily deaths running at almost 1,000 a day, and a 23% increase in cases.
As the US president prepared to return to the key battleground state of Florida for a rally in Tampa on Thursday, Trump and his campaign continued to pursue its tactic of minimising a pandemic that has claimed at least 226,000 lives and continues to rage in many parts of the country.
While Democrat Joe Biden entered the final week of campaigning with a nine percentage point lead in national polls, the margin in key battleground states – including Florida and Pennsylvania – remained closer.
In some hotly contested states, turnout for early voting was even higher than the national figure, including Florida, where the equivalent of two-thirds of those who voted in 2016 have voted.
In Texas – which the influential Cook Political Report on Wednesday moved from “lean Republican” to a “toss-up” between Biden and Trump – the figure was 87%.
Democratic luminaries in the state, such as former presidential candidate Beto O’Rourke, have been begging Biden to make a visit there in the closing days. The campaign is offering the vice-presidential nominee, Kamala Harris, instead, who will visit Fort Worth, Houston and the border city of McAllen on Friday.
But it was the coronavirus pandemic that continued to dominate the agenda. Asked about Trump’s claim to have “ended it”, even the White House communications director, Alyssa Farah, struggled to defend the assertion.
“I think that was poorly worded,” Farah told Fox news. “The intent was to say that it is our goal to end the virus. But what I would say is this, because of the president’s leadership, we are rounding the corner on the virus.”
Trump has repeatedly claimed that the coverage of coronavirus has been weaponised and exaggerated by the media to damage his chances of re-election. “Covid, Covid, Covid is the unified chant of the Fake News Lamestream Media,” Trump tweeted on Wednesday.
“They will talk about nothing else until November 4th., when the Election will be (hopefully!) over. Then the talk will be how low the death rate is, plenty of hospital rooms, & many tests of young people.”
Trump was seemingly nettled by a mocking speech delivered by Barack Obama in Florida on Tuesday, following a similar venting about Covid coverage from the president at a rally last weekend.
“What’s his closing argument? That people are too focused on Covid. He said this at one of his rallies: ‘Covid, Covid, Covid,’ he’s complaining. He’s jealous of Covid’s media coverage,” Obama said.
Biden aimed for a far more realistic tone, in a speech in Wilmington, Delaware. “Even if I win, it’s going to take a lot of hard work to end this pandemic,” he said. “I’m not running on the false promises of being able to end this pandemic by flipping a switch. But I do promise this: we will start on day one doing the right things.”
He said Trump’s attitude towards the pandemic was “insulting” to the families all across America who are suffering.
Biden has said that he will listen to the science and the first person he will call if he’s elected will be Dr Anthony Fauci, the top public health expert on the White House coronavirus taskforce, who has served presidents since 1984 but whom Trump has recently called an idiot.
On Wednesday Fauci warned in a virtual interview for Melbourne University that although he is confident a successful vaccine will be here within a few months, normal life may not be restored for Americans until late 2021 or even 2022.
In the last week of the campaign, the dynamics of the electoral college – which Trump won in 2016 despite losing the popular vote to Hillary Clinton – appeared to be defining the campaigning schedules of the two candidates.
With Trump focusing on midwestern states he needs to hold to stay in office, Biden was planning to visit Iowa later in the week – a state Trump carried by 10 points in 2016.
Of particular concern has been polling in Pennsylvania, where Biden’s current lead in a state that is key for both candidates is just 5.1 points – leading some to suggest that if polling errors seen in 2016 were replicated, the state might be close to a tie
Commenting on the tightening Pennsylvania race, Nate Silver of the FiveThirtyEight polling website underlined its importance.
“It is close to being a must-win for Trump, who has only a 2% chance of winning the electoral college if he loses Pennsylvania. Biden, however, has a bit more margin for error.”
The Biden campaign, meanwhile, announced that the candidate and Obama will campaign together at the weekend for the first time, in the battleground of Michigan.
Also, late in the day the US supreme court rejected a last-ditch Republican effort to stop mail-in ballots being counted in Pennsylvania after election day.
🚨🚨🚨BREAKING: US Supreme Court REJECTS last ditch Republican effort to block Pennsylvania absentee ballot receipt deadline extension.
Victory for voting rights and PA voters! https://t.co/Li18jIxoxn — Marc E. Elias (@marceelias) October 28, 2020
And the identity of Anonymous, a Trump official who claimed there was a “a quiet resistance” within the administration working to save America in a 2018 New York Times op-ed, was revealed as Republican Miles Taylor, a former chief of staff at the Department of Homeland Security.
The penning of the article, and a subsequent book on the same theme, sparked a slew of media coverage and wild Washington speculation as to the identity of the author. It also angered Donald Trump and many of his top officials, who launched a frantic and unsuccessful hunt for the mole throughout the White House staff and beyond.
Predictably, Trump attacked him on Twitter.


theguardian--2020-10-28--Anonymous Trump critic revealed to be ex-homeland security chief of staff

The identity of Anonymous , a Trump official who claimed there was a “ a quiet resistance ” within the administration working to save America in a 2018 New York Times op-ed , has been revealed as Miles Taylor , a former chief of staff at the Department of Homeland Security .
The penning of the article , and a subsequent book on the same theme , sparked a slew of media coverage and wild Washington speculation as to the identity of the author .
It also angered Donald Trump and many of his top officials , who launched a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ throughout the White House staff and beyond .
In a statement Taylor said : “ I am a Republican , and I wanted this president to succeed.
” But he added : “ But too often in times of crisis , Donald Trump has proven he is a man without character , and his personal defects have resulted in leadership failures so significant that they can be measured in lost American lives.
” He went on to urge people to vote for Joe Biden and admitted that one of the guiding principles behind @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The country can not rely on well-intentioned , unelected bureaucrats around the president to steer him towards right .
He has purged most of them anyway , ” Taylor wrote .
Taylor left the Trump administration in 2019 , and went public with his criticism of the president in August , with an ad from the group Republican Voters Against Trump , in which he endorsed Biden .
In the ad , Taylor accused Trump of trying to “ exploit the Department of Homeland Security for his own political purposes and to fuel @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the ad : “ Given what I experienced in the administration , I have to support Joe Biden for president.
” In response to the revelation , the Trump campaign issued a typically aggressive statement .
“ This is the least impressive , lamest political ‘ reveal ’ of all time .
I worked with DHS officials while I was in the White House , and even I had to research who Miles Taylor was .
He ’ s just another standard-issue arrogant , Washington , DC swamp bro who loved President @ @ @ @ @ @ @ try to make money by attacking him , ” said Hogan Gidley , the campaign ’ s national press secretary .

The identity of Anonymous, a Trump official who claimed there was a “a quiet resistance” within the administration working to save America in a 2018 New York Times op-ed, has been revealed as Miles Taylor, a former chief of staff at the Department of Homeland Security.
The penning of the article, and a subsequent book on the same theme, sparked a slew of media coverage and wild Washington speculation as to the identity of the author. It also angered Donald Trump and many of his top officials, who launched a frantic and unsuccessful hunt for the mole throughout the White House staff and beyond.
In a statement Taylor said: “I am a Republican, and I wanted this president to succeed.” But he added: “But too often in times of crisis, Donald Trump has proven he is a man without character, and his personal defects have resulted in leadership failures so significant that they can be measured in lost American lives.”
Kirstjen Nielsen, then secretary of homeland security, and Miles Taylor, then homelands security chief of staff, on 27 March 2018. Photograph: Tim Godbee/AP
He went on to urge people to vote for Joe Biden and admitted that one of the guiding principles behind his op-ed had been mistaken. “The country cannot rely on well-intentioned, unelected bureaucrats around the president to steer him towards right. He has purged most of them anyway,” Taylor wrote.
Taylor left the Trump administration in 2019, and went public with his criticism of the president in August, with an ad from the group Republican Voters Against Trump, in which he endorsed Biden. In the ad, Taylor accused Trump of trying to “exploit the Department of Homeland Security for his own political purposes and to fuel his own agenda”.
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Taylor said in the ad: “Given what I experienced in the administration, I have to support Joe Biden for president.”
In response to the revelation, the Trump campaign issued a typically aggressive statement. “This is the least impressive, lamest political ‘reveal’ of all time. I worked with DHS officials while I was in the White House, and even I had to research who Miles Taylor was. He’s just another standard-issue arrogant, Washington, DC swamp bro who loved President Trump until he figured out he could try to make money by attacking him,” said Hogan Gidley, the campaign’s national press secretary.


theguardian--2020-10-28--'I can have a voice': Latino voters set for decisive role in key Arizona county

Even before she could vote , Imelda Quiroz Beltran had a goal for this election : to register as many Latino voters in Maricopa county as possible – and make sure they cast their ballots .
Every day for months , she has gone door to door with the non-profit Mi Familia Vota , undeterred by the searing desert sun – zipping across Phoenix ’ s sprawling concrete-paved neighborhoods in search of eligible voters .
And then the day came when Beltran registered herself – after she became a naturalized citizen this year .
“ Finally , I can have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ And this year , it is so important that we all have a voice.
” Maricopa – which includes Phoenix – is the fastest-growing county in the US .
Of its nearly 4.5 million residents , one-third identify as Latino , according to census data .
While Arizona has voted for the Republican presidential nominee in every election but one since 1952 , this year , political strategists and pollsters are predicting that Latino voters in Maricopa could play a decisive role in electing Joe Biden to the White House and Democrats @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Whoever wins the Latino vote , is going to win Maricopa county .
And whoever wins Maricopa county is going to win Arizona , ” said Joseph Garcia , director of Chicanos Por La Causa Action Fund , a non-profit based in Phoenix .
“ And whoever wins Arizona is likely to win the White House.
” With early voting already well under way , Biden is leading among registered Latino voters in Arizona by a staggering 38 points .
This year , Democrats also find themselves with a real chance of taking @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Arizona ’ s Senate race , Democrat Mark Kelly – a former astronaut – is leading the incumbent Republican Martha McSally by five or six points among registered voters , and by more than 25 points among Latinos .
The forces that have made Maricopa county and Arizona such a hotly contested election battleground this year were set in motion more than a decade ago , by a generation of young , progressive Latino activists who mobilized against the hardline immigration policies and Joe Arpaio , the rightwing Maricopa county sheriff who became @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Arizona ” .
But in the last four years , Trump ’ s chaotic , divisive tenure has accelerated the electorate ’ s leftward shift .
And in recent months , anger over the Republican governor Doug Ducey ’ s handling of the coronavirus pandemic , which has disproportionately devastated the state ’ s Latino communities , has further alienated voters from the right .
Though Mi Familia Vota ’ s canvassers help both Republicans and Democrats register to vote , Beltran says she often meets people canvassing who – like her – @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Trump enraged Beltran from the moment he launched his campaign in 2016 , when he characterized Mexican immigrants as criminals and rapists .
Those comments , she said , “ made me want to move and do something ” .
Beltran believes the president has emboldened racists .
“ I ’ ve lived here 30 years , ” she said .
“ I speak English.
” But in the past four years – she said she has heard more white strangers than ever before tell her to “ go back ” to where @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2016 , “ really , I think activated people – it was a wake-up call for many , ” said Athena Salman , who was elected to the state house the same year Trump was elected to the White House .
“ But I tell people , especially those who weren ’ t involved or civically engaged up until Trump was elected – we had our own Donald Trump , ” she said .
That would be Arpaio , the Maricopa sheriff knownfor his anti-immigration policies and reality-TV antics , who joined forces @ @ @ @ @ @ @ theory that Barack Obama was not born in the US .
Arpaio was buoyed by local and state officials – who in 2010 passed SB 1070 , known here as the “ show me your papers ” law that allowed police to detain anyone they suspected of being in the US illegally , which activists and civil rights lawyers argued opened the door to racial profiling against Latinos and other immigrants .
The law initially energized conservatives , who rewarded hard-right populists .
But it also activated a generation of young Latinos and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a college student at the time .
Though activists ultimately failed to stop the bill from being signed into law , they were undeterred .
“ We kept going , we kept pushing , ” said Carlos Garcia , a longtime activist who was elected to the Phoenix city council in 2018 .
“ We took to the courts , we hit the streets , we registered people to vote .
We tried every tactic .
We built power.
” A year later , in 2011 , activists led a successful recall against @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Pearce , who became the first state lawmaker in Arizona history to be removed from office by voters via a recall election .
Through a series of court cases , they successfully dismantled key provisions of his signature legislation .
And then in 2016 – the same day Trump claimed the presidency – Maricopa voters ousted Arpaio after nearly a quarter-century in power .
“ Every election year , politicians ask – when will the Latino vote show up for us , ” said Eduardo Sainz , the Arizona state director for Mi @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is , we have been showing up – we have been showing up for ourselves.
” In 2018 , young Latino voters cast ballots in record numbers , and elected Kyrsten Sinema – the first Democrat to win a US Senate seat in Arizona in decades .
Since then , an estimated 100,000 more Latino voters have come of age and have become eligible to vote .
Mi Familia Vota is hoping to mobilize as many of these new voters as possible to cast their ballots , having registered 185,000 voters – young @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The electorate itself definitely looks different than 2016 , ” said Josh Ulibarri , a Democratic pollster based in Phoenix .
“ There are new voters in the mix , ” he said .
“ And those voters tend to be a little more oriented towards Biden , towards Democrats and towards change in general.
” Latinos account for 18 % of the US population , and are the country ’ s second-largest racial or ethnic group , said Josepha Garcia of Chicanos por la Causa , though he stressed that they are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Latino voters – especially young , progressive Latino voters like those in Maricopa county – are poised to play a decisive role in swing states across the country , he said .
An estimated 1 million Latinos will turn 18 every year for the next two decades in the US , joining a diverse new generation of voters in the US that will transform the country ’ s political future .
It is still uncertain whether Biden and Democrats can parlay demographic change , a growing progressive movement and disdain for Trump @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in November .
Though he has struggled to make gains with Latino voters , there are signs he has improved his standing : Biden is leading among likely Latino voters in Arizona 66 % to 28 % , according to a recent Monmouth poll .
Those numbers are consistent with national trends : Biden holds a 34-point lead over Trump among Latino eligible voters across the country , according to a survey by the Pew Research Center .
“ What it comes down to is the numbers – and if the numbers turn @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Garcia said .
In a high-turnout race , the Monmouth poll found Biden with a seven-point lead - but a likely voter model with lower turnout found Biden with just a two-point advantage .
Though there is little chance the president will win over most Latino voters here , siphoning off even a small share of Biden ’ s support could be consequential in a tight race .
The Trump campaign is specifically targeting Latino men who prioritize jobs and the economy – issues where the president still has an advantage .
And @ @ @ @ @ @ @ conservative , anti-abortion nominee confirmed to the US supreme court – also appeals to many anti-abortion Latino voters in the area .
At a Latinos for Trump rally in Phoenix , hundreds of supporters packed into a hotel conference room to see the president , Governor Ducey and a panel of Latino business owners .
“ We are Catholic , we are pro-life .
For me , definitely our values of freedom , family and faith are represented in the Republican party , ” said Alma Rodriguez , 28 , who came with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Rodriguez said she was frustrated by Ducey ’ s response to the coronavirus pandemic , which has hit her husband ’ s construction business and left her children anxious as their public school struggled to adapt to online learning .
The pandemic has killed more than 225,000 Americans and infected millions , far more than any other country , with deaths and cases surging in the midwest in recent weeks .
A majority of Americans do not approve of the Trump administration ’ s handling of the pandemic , which has taken @ @ @ @ @ @ @ nation , including in Maricopa .
But Rodriguez believes Trump was right to “ leave it to the governors – he ’ s not a dictator ” .
She said the Latinos for Trump offices in south Phoenix have helped solidify her support for the president .
“ It really blows my mind that the president has opened up a whole office , just for us , ” she said .
“ I have not received any phone calls from Biden.
” The Biden campaign , which initially avoided in-person events and door-to-door @ @ @ @ @ @ @ resumed traditional campaigning in the final few weeks .
But progressive organizers worry that these efforts are too little , too late .
Democrats have for too long maintained a transactional relationship with Latino voters , said Gilbert Romero , who was a delegate for Biden ’ s former rival , Bernie Sanders , at the Democratic national convention earlier this year .
“ Arizona could have gone blue in the year 2000 .
Hillary Clinton could have won in 2016 , ” he said .
But while voters in Maricopa have helped @ @ @ @ @ @ @ local and statewide office , the region has continued to back Republicans in national races .
“ The voters have always been there – but the fact is , we haven ’ t had a candidate that actually speaks to us , ” Romero said .
For many Latinos , Biden was not the Democrat they wanted to see at the top of the ticket .
Although the former vice-president won the primary elections , many of the younger Latino voters backed Sanders .
“ But Bernie Sanders ain ’ t on the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Chicanos por la Causa Action Fund .
“ An unenthusiastic vote for a candidate , counts exactly the same as an enthusiastic vote for the candidate.
” Still , Garcia and activists hope that a historic turnout among Latino voters will send a clear message to both parties .
“ If they ’ re going to use us to win elections , ” he said , “ They also going to have to listen to us , our concerns.
” On a blazing Friday afternoon in late September , Alejandro Chavez – an @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the grandson of the Arizona-born labor leader Cesar Chavez – visited the Mi Familia Vota office in downtown Phoenix , where he appealed to canvassers to make themselves heard .
“ Don ’ t just ring the bell , knock – and knock a little harder , ” he told them .
If there ’ s a fence or a locked door , he said , “ shake it – make sure there isn ’ t a dog first , but shake it hard !
” “ Because nobody else can be trusted @ @ @ @ @

Maanvi Singh and Lauren Gambino in Phoenix

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Even before she could vote, Imelda Quiroz Beltran had a goal for this election: to register as many Latino voters in Maricopa county as possible – and make sure they cast their ballots.
Every day for months, she has gone door to door with the non-profit Mi Familia Vota, undeterred by the searing desert sun – zipping across Phoenix’s sprawling concrete-paved neighborhoods in search of eligible voters.
And then the day came when Beltran registered herself – after she became a naturalized citizen this year.
“Finally, I can have a voice,” she said. “And this year, it is so important that we all have a voice.”
Maricopa – which includes Phoenix – is the fastest-growing county in the US. Of its nearly 4.5 million residents, one-third identify as Latino, according to census data.
While Arizona has voted for the Republican presidential nominee in every election but one since 1952, this year, political strategists and pollsters are predicting that Latino voters in Maricopa could play a decisive role in electing Joe Biden to the White House and Democrats up and down the ballot.
“Whoever wins the Latino vote, is going to win Maricopa county. And whoever wins Maricopa county is going to win Arizona,” said Joseph Garcia, director of Chicanos Por La Causa Action Fund, a non-profit based in Phoenix. “And whoever wins Arizona is likely to win the White House.”
Signs reminding people to register to vote in south Phoenix. ‘Whoever wins the Latino vote, is going to win Maricopa county. And whoever wins Maricopa county is going to win Arizona,’ said Joseph Garcia. Photograph: Caitlin O’Hara/The Guardian
‘A wake-up call’
With early voting already well under way, Biden is leading among registered Latino voters in Arizona by a staggering 38 points.
This year, Democrats also find themselves with a real chance of taking control of the US Senate. In Arizona’s Senate race, Democrat Mark Kelly – a former astronaut – is leading the incumbent Republican Martha McSally by five or six points among registered voters, and by more than 25 points among Latinos.
The forces that have made Maricopa county and Arizona such a hotly contested election battleground this year were set in motion more than a decade ago, by a generation of young, progressive Latino activists who mobilized against the hardline immigration policies and Joe Arpaio, the rightwing Maricopa county sheriff who became known as “the Donald Trump of Arizona”.
But in the last four years, Trump’s chaotic, divisive tenure has accelerated the electorate’s leftward shift. And in recent months, anger over the Republican governor Doug Ducey’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic, which has disproportionately devastated the state’s Latino communities, has further alienated voters from the right.
Though Mi Familia Vota’s canvassers help both Republicans and Democrats register to vote, Beltran says she often meets people canvassing who – like her – feel betrayed by the current administration. Trump enraged Beltran from the moment he launched his campaign in 2016, when he characterized Mexican immigrants as criminals and rapists. Those comments, she said, “made me want to move and do something”.
Beltran believes the president has emboldened racists. “I’ve lived here 30 years,” she said. “I speak English.” But in the past four years – she said she has heard more white strangers than ever before tell her to “go back” to where she came from.
Beltran is determined to register as many Latino voters in Maricopa County, Arizona as possible and make sure they cast their ballots in next week’s elections. Photographs: Caitlin O’Hara/The Guardian Beltran is determined to register as many Latino voters in Maricopa County, Arizona as possible and make sure they cast their ballots in next week’s elections. Photographs: Caitlin O’Hara/The Guardian
The election in 2016, “really, I think activated people – it was a wake-up call for many,” said Athena Salman, who was elected to the state house the same year Trump was elected to the White House. “But I tell people, especially those who weren’t involved or civically engaged up until Trump was elected – we had our own Donald Trump,” she said.
That would be Arpaio, the Maricopa sheriff known for his anti-immigration policies and reality-TV antics, who joined forces with Trump to investigate the racist conspiracy theory that Barack Obama was not born in the US.
Arpaio was buoyed by local and state officials – who in 2010 passed SB 1070, known here as the “show me your papers” law that allowed police to detain anyone they suspected of being in the US illegally, which activists and civil rights lawyers argued opened the door to racial profiling against Latinos and other immigrants.
The law initially energized conservatives, who rewarded hard-right populists. But it also activated a generation of young Latinos and progressives – including Salman, who was a college student at the time.
Though activists ultimately failed to stop the bill from being signed into law, they were undeterred.
“We kept going, we kept pushing,” said Carlos Garcia, a longtime activist who was elected to the Phoenix city council in 2018. “We took to the courts, we hit the streets, we registered people to vote. We tried every tactic. We built power.”
A year later, in 2011, activists led a successful recall against the bill’s author, Russell Pearce, who became the first state lawmaker in Arizona history to be removed from office by voters via a recall election. Through a series of court cases, they successfully dismantled key provisions of his signature legislation. And then in 2016 – the same day Trump claimed the presidency – Maricopa voters ousted Arpaio after nearly a quarter-century in power.
“Every election year, politicians ask – when will the Latino vote show up for us,” said Eduardo Sainz, the Arizona state director for Mi Familia Vota. “But the thing is, we have been showing up – we have been showing up for ourselves.”
Alfonso, an elotero food cart operator who has lived in Phoenix for seven years, wears a mask and serves customers in north Phoenix. Photograph: Caitlin O’Hara/The Guardian
In 2018, young Latino voters cast ballots in record numbers, and elected Kyrsten Sinema – the first Democrat to win a US Senate seat in Arizona in decades. Since then, an estimated 100,000 more Latino voters have come of age and have become eligible to vote.
Mi Familia Vota is hoping to mobilize as many of these new voters as possible to cast their ballots, having registered 185,000 voters – young and old – this year.
“The electorate itself definitely looks different than 2016,” said Josh Ulibarri, a Democratic pollster based in Phoenix.
“There are new voters in the mix,” he said. “And those voters tend to be a little more oriented towards Biden, towards Democrats and towards change in general.”
Latinos account for 18% of the US population, and are the country’s second-largest racial or ethnic group, said Josepha Garcia of Chicanos por la Causa, though he stressed that they are “not monolithic”.
And yet, Latino voters – especially young, progressive Latino voters like those in Maricopa county – are poised to play a decisive role in swing states across the country, he said. An estimated 1 million Latinos will turn 18 every year for the next two decades in the US, joining a diverse new generation of voters in the US that will transform the country’s political future.
It is still uncertain whether Biden and Democrats can parlay demographic change, a growing progressive movement and disdain for Trump seen in counties like Maricopa into victories in November. Though he has struggled to make gains with Latino voters, there are signs he has improved his standing: Biden is leading among likely Latino voters in Arizona 66% to 28%, according to a recent Monmouth poll. Those numbers are consistent with national trends: Biden holds a 34-point lead over Trump among Latino eligible voters across the country, according to a survey by the Pew Research Center.
“What it comes down to is the numbers – and if the numbers turn out at the ballot box,” Garcia said.
In a high-turnout race, the Monmouth poll found Biden with a seven-point lead - but a likely voter model with lower turnout found Biden with just a two-point advantage.
Though there is little chance the president will win over most Latino voters here, siphoning off even a small share of Biden’s support could be consequential in a tight race.
The Trump campaign is specifically targeting Latino men who prioritize jobs and the economy – issues where the president still has an advantage. And Trump – who this week saw his conservative, anti-abortion nominee confirmed to the US supreme court – also appeals to many anti-abortion Latino voters in the area.
At a Latinos for Trump rally in Phoenix, hundreds of supporters packed into a hotel conference room to see the president, Governor Ducey and a panel of Latino business owners. “We are Catholic, we are pro-life. For me, definitely our values of freedom, family and faith are represented in the Republican party,” said Alma Rodriguez, 28, who came with her husband.
Donald Trump, left, and others participate in a roundtable rally with Latino supporters at the Arizona Grand Resort and Spa in Phoenix, Arizona, on 14 September. Photograph: Brendan Smialowski/AFP/Getty Images
A mother of four, Rodriguez said she was frustrated by Ducey’s response to the coronavirus pandemic, which has hit her husband’s construction business and left her children anxious as their public school struggled to adapt to online learning.
The pandemic has killed more than 225,000 Americans and infected millions, far more than any other country, with deaths and cases surging in the midwest in recent weeks. A majority of Americans do not approve of the Trump administration’s handling of the pandemic, which has taken a disproportionate toll on Latinos across the nation, including in Maricopa. But Rodriguez believes Trump was right to “leave it to the governors – he’s not a dictator”.
She said the Latinos for Trump offices in south Phoenix have helped solidify her support for the president. “It really blows my mind that the president has opened up a whole office, just for us,” she said. “I have not received any phone calls from Biden.”
The Biden campaign, which initially avoided in-person events and door-to-door canvassing due to the pandemic, has resumed traditional campaigning in the final few weeks. But progressive organizers worry that these efforts are too little, too late.
Democrats have for too long maintained a transactional relationship with Latino voters, said Gilbert Romero, who was a delegate for Biden’s former rival, Bernie Sanders, at the Democratic national convention earlier this year.
Arizona could have gone blue in the year 2000. Hillary Clinton could have won in 2016 Gilbert Romero, DNC delegate
“Arizona could have gone blue in the year 2000. Hillary Clinton could have won in 2016,” he said. But while voters in Maricopa have helped elect a wave of progressive Latinos to local and statewide office, the region has continued to back Republicans in national races. “The voters have always been there – but the fact is, we haven’t had a candidate that actually speaks to us,” Romero said.
For many Latinos, Biden was not the Democrat they wanted to see at the top of the ticket. Although the former vice-president won the primary elections, many of the younger Latino voters backed Sanders.
“But Bernie Sanders ain’t on the ballot,” said Joseph Garcia of Chicanos por la Causa Action Fund. “An unenthusiastic vote for a candidate, counts exactly the same as an enthusiastic vote for the candidate.”
Still, Garcia and activists hope that a historic turnout among Latino voters will send a clear message to both parties.
“If they’re going to use us to win elections,” he said, “They also going to have to listen to us, our concerns.”
On a blazing Friday afternoon in late September, Alejandro Chavez – an organizer with the United Farm Workers and the grandson of the Arizona-born labor leader Cesar Chavez – visited the Mi Familia Vota office in downtown Phoenix, where he appealed to canvassers to make themselves heard.
“Don’t just ring the bell, knock – and knock a little harder,” he told them.
If there’s a fence or a locked door, he said, “shake it – make sure there isn’t a dog first, but shake it hard!”
Why?
“Because nobody else can be trusted to do it.”


theguardian--2020-10-28--The Black electorate could decide the 2020 election. Here's why

Black Americans could decide the 2020 presidential election , particularly in key battleground states like Wisconsin and Florida .
The battle for the White House approaches as Black Americans face the brunt of an unprecedented national crisis – one in 1,000 have died of the virus and African Americans are twice as likely to have lost a job .
Joe Biden ’ s road to the White House could hang on Democrats ’ ability to turn out their most loyal bloc .
Although they have maintained a sizable advantage among African Americans over Republicans counterparts for decades , support for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ years of Barack Obama ’ s presidency .
That complicates Democratic efforts to court these 30 million eligible voters ahead of 3 November .
African Americans are often depicted as a single , unified bloc , and many analysts warn Democrats that therein lies the problem .
As experts debunk the myth of the Black voter monolith , the path to victory may be dependent on Democrats ’ ability to speak to Black voters ’ diversity .
Here are factors that will shape Black voting turnout on election day , and their political @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the US has experienced a reverse migration in which Black Americans move from northern cities back to the south .
Most often , it ’ s to communities where they were born or where their families were rooted before the Great Migration – an era between 1916 and 1970 when 6 million African Americans escaped segregation and discrimination in the south , to pursue jobs up north .
That makes states like Texas , South Carolina and Georgia more competitive .
“ There ’ s a clear understanding that a growing , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be a tipping point for any electorate , ” Bill Frey , a senior fellow and demographer with the Brookings Institution , told the Guardian .
“ It ’ s an example of what we can see moving forward where many thought , and still think , that Georgia will eventually turn blue , ” he added .
Along with Georgia , the top states for Black population gains include Texas , Florida , North Carolina and Virginia – all swing or battleground states where the vice-president ramped up campaign efforts in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ According to Pew , more than one-third of Black voters live in nine of the most competitive states .
The Brookings Institution also noted that while progressive attitudes are most often held by younger , college-educated blacks , the influence of retirees and older Americans from more liberal cities can also skew voting blocs left .
But that ’ s also creating a generational divide between more radical youth and their pragmatic elders .
Cedric Humphrey , a college student asked Biden at an October town hall , “ Many people believe the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be Black voters under 30 – not because they ’ re voting for Trump , but because they won ’ t vote at all .
Besides ‘ you ain ’ t Black ’ , what do you have to say to young Black voters who see voting for you as further participation in a system that continually failed to protect them.
” Early voting data so far shows young voters turning out in record numbers but younger , Black voters are less likely to support Democrats .
With anti-racism protests raging across the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Democrats to go bold with policing and institutional reforms .
Although Biden ’ s Obama-era legacy sustained his loyalty primarily among Black elders , those under 30 overwhelmingly supported Sanders in the primary .
Still , an overwhelming majority ( nine out of 10 ) young voters told CBS pollsters they would never consider voting for Donald Trump .
Democrats instead are in a fight to get the future of their party to show up , with young people historically less likely to turn out in an election .
Young people will be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Black voters being a millennial or from generation Z. Wisconsin state representative David Bowen told the Guardian that the pandemic , recession and uprisings have sparked a “ righteous anger ” that should serve as “ a wake-up call ” to Democrats .
He calls on the party to “ tap into the energy ” of a youth-led movement for justice .
“ We can ’ t piecemeal our way out of the problems that have accumulated over decades , or make small incremental changes to give people hope that this system will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ matter young or old , voter suppression stands to affect nearly every Black community across the country .
But systemically barring Black people from the polls has been part of voting rights history in America for as long as they have been allowed to vote – first in the 1860s for men , and nearly a century later for women .
Those efforts accelerated in recent decades thanks to a supreme court decision striking down key parts of the 1965 Voting Rights Act .
Under mostly Republican governors , state election boards have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ disproportionately affecting communities of color and young people .
“ If we shouldn ’ t vote or our vote didn ’ t matter then why are there so many forces investing resources to try to stop us from voting , ” said Desmond Meade , a legal scholar and founder of the Florida Rights Restoration Coalition , which advocates for returning citizens – or people with prior felony convictions – regaining their right to vote .
In late September , Channel 4 uncovered a data leak which revealed the Trump administration targeted as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ stay home in 2016 .
In Florida , an estimated 5.85 million Americans with prior felony convictions are barred from voting .
Returning citizens had been stripped permanently of the right to vote until residents voted in favor of a ballot measure known as Amendment 4 - temporarily striking it down .
But in September , a federal appeals court ruled to uphold a Republican state senate bill requiring returning citizens pay restitution and settle all court debts before casting their ballots – which , advocates say , is the latest effort to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will join a growing number of Black Americans voting for the first time .
Against the backdrop of a pandemic and uprising , he says efforts to hold the Black vote are motivating communities to turn out even more .
And they ’ re “ not going to be just voting for someone because they have a ‘ D ’ or an ‘ R ’ next to their name ” .
“ We ’ re going to be voting for someone who recognizes and respects our humanity , ” he said .

Black Americans could decide the 2020 presidential election, particularly in key battleground states like Wisconsin and Florida. The battle for the White House approaches as Black Americans face the brunt of an unprecedented national crisis – one in 1,000 have died of the virus and African Americans are twice as likely to have lost a job.
Joe Biden’s road to the White House could hang on Democrats’ ability to turn out their most loyal bloc.
Although they have maintained a sizable advantage among African Americans over Republicans counterparts for decades, support for Democrats has slowly declined since the final years of Barack Obama’s presidency. That complicates Democratic efforts to court these 30 million eligible voters ahead of 3 November.
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African Americans are often depicted as a single, unified bloc, and many analysts warn Democrats that therein lies the problem. As experts debunk the myth of the Black voter monolith, the path to victory may be dependent on Democrats’ ability to speak to Black voters’ diversity.
Here are factors that will shape Black voting turnout on election day, and their political power well beyond.
Migration puts more states in play
Since the 1970s, the US has experienced a reverse migration in which Black Americans move from northern cities back to the south. Most often, it’s to communities where they were born or where their families were rooted before the Great Migration – an era between 1916 and 1970 when 6 million African Americans escaped segregation and discrimination in the south, to pursue jobs up north.
That makes states like Texas, South Carolina and Georgia more competitive.
“There’s a clear understanding that a growing, energized bloc of African American voters can be a tipping point for any electorate,” Bill Frey, a senior fellow and demographer with the Brookings Institution, told the Guardian.
“It’s an example of what we can see moving forward where many thought, and still think, that Georgia will eventually turn blue,” he added.
Along with Georgia, the top states for Black population gains include Texas, Florida, North Carolina and Virginia – all swing or battleground states where the vice-president ramped up campaign efforts in the weeks leading up to 3 November. According to Pew, more than one-third of Black voters live in nine of the most competitive states.
The Brookings Institution also noted that while progressive attitudes are most often held by younger, college-educated blacks, the influence of retirees and older Americans from more liberal cities can also skew voting blocs left.
But that’s also creating a generational divide between more radical youth and their pragmatic elders.
People cast their ballots at an early voting location at the Gwinnett county fairgrounds on 24 October in Lawrenceville, Georgia. Photograph: Elijah Nouvelage/AFP/Getty Images
A growing generational gap
Cedric Humphrey, a college student asked Biden at an October town hall, “Many people believe the true swing voters in this election will be Black voters under 30 – not because they’re voting for Trump, but because they won’t vote at all. Besides ‘you ain’t Black’, what do you have to say to young Black voters who see voting for you as further participation in a system that continually failed to protect them.”
Early voting data so far shows young voters turning out in record numbers but younger, Black voters are less likely to support Democrats. With anti-racism protests raging across the country, progressive activists have called on Democrats to go bold with policing and institutional reforms.
Although Biden’s Obama-era legacy sustained his loyalty primarily among Black elders, those under 30 overwhelmingly supported Sanders in the primary. Still, an overwhelming majority (nine out of 10) young voters told CBS pollsters they would never consider voting for Donald Trump.
Democrats instead are in a fight to get the future of their party to show up, with young people historically less likely to turn out in an election. Young people will be critical, with four in 10 eligible Black voters being a millennial or from generation Z.
Wisconsin state representative David Bowen told the Guardian that the pandemic, recession and uprisings have sparked a “righteous anger” that should serve as “a wake-up call” to Democrats. He calls on the party to “tap into the energy” of a youth-led movement for justice.
“We can’t piecemeal our way out of the problems that have accumulated over decades, or make small incremental changes to give people hope that this system will be accountable to them”.
Sisters Debra Hubbard and Vanessa Howard raise their fists as they exit the Staples Center after casting their vote, in Los Angeles, California, on 24 October. Photograph: Kyle Grillot/EPA
Voter suppression unites diverse Black communities
No matter young or old, voter suppression stands to affect nearly every Black community across the country. But systemically barring Black people from the polls has been part of voting rights history in America for as long as they have been allowed to vote – first in the 1860s for men, and nearly a century later for women.
Those efforts accelerated in recent decades thanks to a supreme court decision striking down key parts of the 1965 Voting Rights Act. Under mostly Republican governors, state election boards have limited access to voting ever since, disproportionately affecting communities of color and young people.
“If we shouldn’t vote or our vote didn’t matter then why are there so many forces investing resources to try to stop us from voting,” said Desmond Meade, a legal scholar and founder of the Florida Rights Restoration Coalition, which advocates for returning citizens – or people with prior felony convictions – regaining their right to vote.
In late September, Channel 4 uncovered a data leak which revealed the Trump administration targeted as many as 3.5 million Black voters to stay home in 2016.
Jamal and Michelle Jenkins wait in line with their daughter Asia to cast their ballots in Smyrna, Georgia, on 24 October. Photograph: Elijah Nouvelage/AFP/Getty Images
In Florida, an estimated 1.4 million Americans [5.85 million nationwide] with prior felony convictions are barred from voting. Returning citizens had been stripped permanently of the right to vote until residents voted in favor of a ballot measure known as Amendment 4 - temporarily striking it down.
But in September, a federal appeals court ruled to uphold a Republican state senate bill requiring returning citizens pay restitution and settle all court debts before casting their ballots – which, advocates say, is the latest effort to suppress turnout.
On Tuesday, Meade will join a growing number of Black Americans voting for the first time. Against the backdrop of a pandemic and uprising, he says efforts to hold the Black vote are motivating communities to turn out even more. And they’re “not going to be just voting for someone because they have a ‘D’ or an ‘R’ next to their name”.
“We’re going to be voting for someone who recognizes and respects our humanity,” he said.