theguardian--2020-10-23--US nears daily Covid cases record amid warning of 500,000 deaths by February

The United States on Friday was approaching a record for the number of new daily coronavirus cases , as a new study warned that the pandemic is set to cause half a million American deaths by February .
Covid-19 is on course to ravage states across the nation throughout the coming winter and more than 511,000 lives could be lost by 28 February next year , modeling led by scientists from the University of Washington found .
This means that with cases surging in many states , particularly the upper midwest , what appears to be a third major peak @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lead to nearly 300,000 people dying in just the next four months .
In the latest ominous sign about the disease ’ s grip , the US recorded 71,671 new cases of coronavirus on Thursday , the Associated Press reported , while the seven-day rolling average for cases surpassed 61,140 , compared with 44,647 two weeks ago .
The record was reached on 22 July when the rolling average was 67,293 in the midst of a summer outbreak driven largely by surges of the virus in Florida , Texas , Arizona and California @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Washington Post reported that according to its own data tracker , the US hit an all-time daily high for new cases on Friday , with a total of more than 81,000 .
Several states are setting records across the midwest and west for infections and hospitalizations , amid the autumn surge .
The news came as Anthony Fauci , the top public health official on the White House coronavirus taskforce , said Donald Trump has not met with the taskforce “ for several months ” and the body itself meets less frequently @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , despite the fact that outbreak is not yet under control .
And while AstraZeneca resumed US trials of its experimental Covid-19 vaccine and Johnson & Johnson noted that it had the go-ahead to resume its trial soon , too , no successful US vaccine has yet been announced and the Democratic presidential nominee , Joe Biden , warned of a “ dark winter ” ahead amid the pandemic .
At a campaign rally late on Friday afternoon , Trump instead claimed without evidence that the US was entering the “ final turn @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the University of Washington warned that the situation will be even more disastrous if states continue to ease off on measures designed to restrict the spread of the virus , such as the shuttering of certain businesses and social distancing edicts .
If states wind down such protections , the death toll could top 1 million people in America by 28 February , the UW study found .
Even if states implement restrictions when Covid deaths hit eight people per million , as has been standard , the projected death toll of 511,000 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lives lost by the US in the second world war .
America will face a “ continued public health challenge ” beyond February , the study , published in Nature Medicine , warns .
A further 130,000 lives could be saved by February , the researchers found , if 95 % of the American population adopted consistent mask-wearing .
The universal use of masks is a “ relatively affordable and low-impact intervention ” which “ has the potential to serve as a priority life-saving strategy in all US states ” , the study @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for wearing masks despite the advice of his own government ’ s experts and his own brush with the virus .
“ I don ’ t wear masks like him , ” the US president has said about Biden .
An outbreak of Covid infections within the White House has been blamed , in part , on a culture where staffers were discouraged from wearing masks .
The president has also repeatedly called for the reopening of schools and businesses even as US cases have roared beyond 8 million .
Some states , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ position while more restrictive ones are attacked by Trump .
“ They ’ ve got ta open up that state , ” Trump said of Illinois this week .
JB Pritzker , Illinois ’ s Democratic governor , said that Trump was “ modeling bad behavior ” and that the virus was “ very dangerous ” .
The University of Washington-led study “ confirms what many of us are worried about , which is an unrelenting outbreak in the United States ” said Irwin Redlener , professor of health policy at the Columbia @ @ @ @ @ @ @ involved in the research .
“ If we don ’ t do anything much more we will have a very serious increase in fatalities , ” said Redlener .
“ Simple policies such as mandated masks can help stop the spread and if you had a strong consistent message from the White House it would be very difficult for governors to not implement that .
But the lack of federal leadership has cost lives in America .
It ’ s a very sad state of affairs.
” Around half of people in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , according to polling , with this figure growing to around eight in 10 Americans when it comes to wearing masks in stores and other businesses .
But these levels are still below the universal mask-wearing required for the major reduction in deaths .
Redlener said : “ It ’ s become an ideological position , a symbol of resistance to science that has unfortunately become locked in .
” Meanwhile , Fauci , who has served as director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases since 1984 , told MSNBC @ @ @ @ @ @ @ had been “ a while ” since he had spoken with Trump directly about Covid-19 strategy .
He indicated that the president has leaned in the direction of his controversial new adviser Scott Atlas , who mirrors the president ’ s ambivalence towards masks and urgency on reopening the economy .
Elsewhere , AstraZeneca ’ s and Johnson & Johnson ’ s Covid vaccine research took steps forward , the companies announced on Friday .
AstraZeneca resumed US trials of its experimental vaccine after approval by US regulators following a pause since 6 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s UK trial became seriously ill. And a US oversight panel has recommended that Johnson & Johnson resume its trials .
J & J paused its large , late-stage trial last week after a study participant fell sick .

Oliver Milman in New York and Joan E Greve in Washington and agencies

The United States on Friday was approaching a record for the number of new daily coronavirus cases, as a new study warned that the pandemic is set to cause half a million American deaths by February.
Covid-19 is on course to ravage states across the nation throughout the coming winter and more than 511,000 lives could be lost by 28 February next year, modeling led by scientists from the University of Washington found.
This means that with cases surging in many states, particularly the upper midwest, what appears to be a third major peak of coronavirus infections in the US could lead to nearly 300,000 people dying in just the next four months.
In the latest ominous sign about the disease’s grip, the US recorded 71,671 new cases of coronavirus on Thursday, the Associated Press reported, while the seven-day rolling average for cases surpassed 61,140, compared with 44,647 two weeks ago.
The record was reached on 22 July when the rolling average was 67,293 in the midst of a summer outbreak driven largely by surges of the virus in Florida, Texas, Arizona and California, the agency reported.
Meanwhile, the Washington Post reported that according to its own data tracker, the US hit an all-time daily high for new cases on Friday, with a total of more than 81,000.
Several states are setting records across the midwest and west for infections and hospitalizations, amid the autumn surge.
The news came as Anthony Fauci, the top public health official on the White House coronavirus taskforce, said Donald Trump has not met with the taskforce “for several months” and the body itself meets less frequently than it did earlier in the pandemic, despite the fact that outbreak is not yet under control.
And while AstraZeneca resumed US trials of its experimental Covid-19 vaccine and Johnson & Johnson noted that it had the go-ahead to resume its trial soon, too, no successful US vaccine has yet been announced and the Democratic presidential nominee, Joe Biden, warned of a “dark winter” ahead amid the pandemic.
At a campaign rally late on Friday afternoon, Trump instead claimed without evidence that the US was entering the “final turn” of the outbreak.
“We’re not entering a dark winter. We’re entering the final turn and approaching the light at the end of the tunnel” — Trump on Covid just now, hoping that merely repeating the same optimism for eight-plus months can distort reality — Sam Stein (@samstein) October 23, 2020
In fact the University of Washington warned that the situation will be even more disastrous if states continue to ease off on measures designed to restrict the spread of the virus, such as the shuttering of certain businesses and social distancing edicts. If states wind down such protections, the death toll could top 1 million people in America by 28 February, the UW study found.
Even if states implement restrictions when Covid deaths hit eight people per million, as has been standard, the projected death toll of 511,000 will still be more than all the lives lost by the US in the second world war. America will face a “continued public health challenge” beyond February, the study, published in Nature Medicine, warns.
A further 130,000 lives could be saved by February, the researchers found, if 95% of the American population adopted consistent mask-wearing. The universal use of masks is a “relatively affordable and low-impact intervention” which “has the potential to serve as a priority life-saving strategy in all US states”, the study states.
Trump has routinely mocked people for wearing masks despite the advice of his own government’s experts and his own brush with the virus.
“I don’t wear masks like him,” the US president has said about Biden. An outbreak of Covid infections within the White House has been blamed, in part, on a culture where staffers were discouraged from wearing masks.
The president has also repeatedly called for the reopening of schools and businesses even as US cases have roared beyond 8 million. Some states, such as Florida, have followed this position while more restrictive ones are attacked by Trump. “They’ve gotta open up that state,” Trump said of Illinois this week. JB Pritzker, Illinois’s Democratic governor, said that Trump was “modeling bad behavior” and that the virus was “very dangerous”.
The University of Washington-led study “confirms what many of us are worried about, which is an unrelenting outbreak in the United States” said Irwin Redlener, professor of health policy at the Columbia University Medical Center, who was not involved in the research.
“If we don’t do anything much more we will have a very serious increase in fatalities,” said Redlener. “Simple policies such as mandated masks can help stop the spread and if you had a strong consistent message from the White House it would be very difficult for governors to not implement that. But the lack of federal leadership has cost lives in America. It’s a very sad state of affairs.”
Around half of people in the US say they always wear a mask, according to polling, with this figure growing to around eight in 10 Americans when it comes to wearing masks in stores and other businesses. But these levels are still below the universal mask-wearing required for the major reduction in deaths.
Redlener said: “It’s become an ideological position, a symbol of resistance to science that has unfortunately become locked in. ”
Meanwhile, Fauci, who has served as director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases since 1984, told MSNBC in an interview on Friday that it had been “a while” since he had spoken with Trump directly about Covid-19 strategy.
He indicated that the president has leaned in the direction of his controversial new adviser Scott Atlas, who mirrors the president’s ambivalence towards masks and urgency on reopening the economy.
Elsewhere, AstraZeneca’s and Johnson & Johnson’s Covid vaccine research took steps forward, the companies announced on Friday.
AstraZeneca resumed US trials of its experimental vaccine after approval by US regulators following a pause since 6 September when a participant in the company’s UK trial became seriously ill.
And a US oversight panel has recommended that Johnson & Johnson resume its trials.
J&J paused its large, late-stage trial last week after a study participant fell sick.


theguardian--2020-10-23--Wisconsin sees record number of early voters as Covid cases climb in state

Wisconsin , a state notoriously divided by politics , bucked national trends in April when it pressed forward with in-person midterm elections during the pandemic , despite objections of the Democratic governor , Tony Evers .
Faced with a sudden exodus of volunteer poll workers , Milwaukee consolidated 180 polling locations in five , resulting in hours-long wait times .
Having had six months to prepare for fall elections – stocking up on PPE , creating plans for cleaning , and finding enough volunteers to work the polls – experts and election officials expect a smoother process on 3 November @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that first walloped the nation ’ s coastal areas has now crashed on the midwest .
Wisconsin cities made up seven out of 10 areas with the highest share of Covid cases relative to their populations , according to a New York Times analysis .
This week , when early voting stations opened for residents to submit absentee ballots in person , officials put their preparations to the test .
According to the Wisconsin election commission , 1.1 million people had returned their ballots by mail or in person as of Thursday – @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the state .
( Wisconsin calls in-person early voting ballots absentee . )
By 6.30am Tuesday , when an early voting location opened at Bay View library in Milwaukee , the parking had filled with cars and a line snaked around the corner of the building .
It moved swiftly , and spirits seemed high , with cheers and fist-pumps from voters who left the library happy to have submitted their ballots in person .
“ I didn ’ t want to wait in line on election day , ” said Stephen Gribble @ @ @ @ @ @ @ political , I wanted to make sure I did my part to get a certain someone out of office .
And I wanted to come in person to make sure it was done right.
” The desire to have ballots properly counted , coupled with concerns over postal service delays , was echoed by a number of voters , including Craig Nickels , who delivered his ballot in person later that day .
“ There has been reporting by credible news outlets that even with concerns over Covid , I just felt more @ @ @ @ @ @ @ official location , ” Nickels said .
In Wausau , a city of 38,000 in north central Wisconsin , officials of the region ’ s hospital system have implored residents to wear masks and avoid crowds in light of the region ’ s alarming case numbers – the nation ’ s sixth highest per capita .
In response , Leslie Kremer , city clerk , said Wausau had installed sneeze guards at polling stations , assigned workers to clean and disinfect stations between voters , and will appoint monitors to make sure voters @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , she said some poll workers have expressed concern over voters who come in without masks – something for which voters can ’ t be turned away .
“ We ’ d like to see everyone wearing masks , but the law tells us we can ’ t enforce that , ” Kremer said .
In Shawano , a city of 9,000 north-west of Green Bay that was forced to close city buildings amid surging case numbers , the city will turn to curbside voting , allowing people to cast ballots from their @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sanitize pens and clipboards .
“ So far everybody has loved it , ” said the city clerk , Lesley Nemetz .
“ They don ’ t have to get out of their cars , which is good because it ’ s kind of chilly out.
” Due in part to voter mobilization campaigns , Wisconsin has seen an explosion of absentee ballots , exceeding that of years past and accounting for more than a third of the total votes counted in Wisconsin in 2016 .
The mail-in boom , part of a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ some Wisconsin communities have already exceeded half the total turnout they saw in 2016 .
But less than two weeks before election day , a crucial deadline remains in flux .
This month , a federal appeals court handed Republicans a victory when it blocked an extension to the deadline for receiving absentee ballots , which could lead to fewer ballots being counted in a state that went to Trump by a razor-thin margin of 23,000 votes in 2016 .
Democratic groups have appealed the decision to the supreme court and a decision @ @ @ @ @ @ @ prepare for last-minute changes to when ballots must be received in order to count .
“ It definitely doesn ’ t make running an election any easier , but as long as you ’ re paying attention , and have a plan in your back pocket for what to do if things change , you ’ ll be OK , ” Nemetz said .
But some experts say it won ’ t hinder most voters .
“ This year it looks likely that the majority of votes in Wisconsin could be submitted before @ @ @ @ @ @ @ huge change and it ’ s significant , ” said Barry Burden , political science professor at University of Wisconsin – Madison and director of the Elections Research Center .
Burden attributes the trends to a response to the pandemic , with voters wanting to avoid exposure to Covid-19 while waiting in line to vote , but also to an unprecedented enthusiasm for early voting .
And while voters in larger metropolitan areas and more affluent suburbs have so far submitted absentee ballots both in-person and through mail at higher rates , clerks @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have noticed similar trends .
In the city of Antigo , population 7,800 , Kaye Matucheski , city clerk , said she had been surprised by the number of absentee ballots they had received .
“ This is my seventh presidential election , and we have had more absentees by double than I ’ ve ever had , ” she said .
In Antigo and the surrounding Langlade county , where the seven-day average of Covid cases is one of the state ’ s highest , Matucheski suspects the pandemic accounts for some @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The rest , she chalks up to political interest .
“ It ’ s the pandemic , but it ’ s also politics and the state of the world that has more people interested in voting .
We ’ ve had people that lived here for years and years and have never voted , and this election is drawing them out , ” Matucheski said .

Wisconsin, a state notoriously divided by politics, bucked national trends in April when it pressed forward with in-person midterm elections during the pandemic, despite objections of the Democratic governor, Tony Evers. Faced with a sudden exodus of volunteer poll workers, Milwaukee consolidated 180 polling locations in five, resulting in hours-long wait times.
Having had six months to prepare for fall elections – stocking up on PPE, creating plans for cleaning, and finding enough volunteers to work the polls – experts and election officials expect a smoother process on 3 November. But the wave of coronavirus outbreaks that first walloped the nation’s coastal areas has now crashed on the midwest. Wisconsin cities made up seven out of 10 areas with the highest share of Covid cases relative to their populations, according to a New York Times analysis.
This week, when early voting stations opened for residents to submit absentee ballots in person, officials put their preparations to the test. According to the Wisconsin election commission, 1.1 million people had returned their ballots by mail or in person as of Thursday – a record number of early votes for the state. (Wisconsin calls in-person early voting ballots absentee.)
By 6.30am Tuesday, when an early voting location opened at Bay View library in Milwaukee, the parking had filled with cars and a line snaked around the corner of the building. It moved swiftly, and spirits seemed high, with cheers and fist-pumps from voters who left the library happy to have submitted their ballots in person.
“I didn’t want to wait in line on election day,” said Stephen Gribble, 46. “Without getting too political, I wanted to make sure I did my part to get a certain someone out of office. And I wanted to come in person to make sure it was done right.”
The desire to have ballots properly counted, coupled with concerns over postal service delays, was echoed by a number of voters, including Craig Nickels, who delivered his ballot in person later that day. “There has been reporting by credible news outlets that even with concerns over Covid, I just felt more comfortable handing in my ballot at an official location,” Nickels said.
I just felt more comfortable handing in my ballot at an official location Craig Nickels
In Wausau, a city of 38,000 in north central Wisconsin, officials of the region’s hospital system have implored residents to wear masks and avoid crowds in light of the region’s alarming case numbers – the nation’s sixth highest per capita. In response, Leslie Kremer, city clerk, said Wausau had installed sneeze guards at polling stations, assigned workers to clean and disinfect stations between voters, and will appoint monitors to make sure voters are following physical distance guidelines.
Still, she said some poll workers have expressed concern over voters who come in without masks – something for which voters can’t be turned away. “We’d like to see everyone wearing masks, but the law tells us we can’t enforce that,” Kremer said.
In Shawano, a city of 9,000 north-west of Green Bay that was forced to close city buildings amid surging case numbers, the city will turn to curbside voting, allowing people to cast ballots from their vehicles. In between, workers will sanitize pens and clipboards.
“So far everybody has loved it,” said the city clerk, Lesley Nemetz. “They don’t have to get out of their cars, which is good because it’s kind of chilly out.”
Due in part to voter mobilization campaigns, Wisconsin has seen an explosion of absentee ballots, exceeding that of years past and accounting for more than a third of the total votes counted in Wisconsin in 2016. The mail-in boom, part of a national trend this year, means that some Wisconsin communities have already exceeded half the total turnout they saw in 2016.
But less than two weeks before election day, a crucial deadline remains in flux. This month, a federal appeals court handed Republicans a victory when it blocked an extension to the deadline for receiving absentee ballots, which could lead to fewer ballots being counted in a state that went to Trump by a razor-thin margin of 23,000 votes in 2016. Democratic groups have appealed the decision to the supreme court and a decision is pending.
Now city clerks must prepare for last-minute changes to when ballots must be received in order to count. “It definitely doesn’t make running an election any easier, but as long as you’re paying attention, and have a plan in your back pocket for what to do if things change, you’ll be OK,” Nemetz said.
But some experts say it won’t hinder most voters. “This year it looks likely that the majority of votes in Wisconsin could be submitted before election day – that’s a huge change and it’s significant,” said Barry Burden, political science professor at University of Wisconsin – Madison and director of the Elections Research Center.
Burden attributes the trends to a response to the pandemic, with voters wanting to avoid exposure to Covid-19 while waiting in line to vote, but also to an unprecedented enthusiasm for early voting. And while voters in larger metropolitan areas and more affluent suburbs have so far submitted absentee ballots both in-person and through mail at higher rates, clerks in smaller and mid-sized cities say they have noticed similar trends.
In the city of Antigo, population 7,800, Kaye Matucheski, city clerk, said she had been surprised by the number of absentee ballots they had received. “This is my seventh presidential election, and we have had more absentees by double than I’ve ever had,” she said.
In Antigo and the surrounding Langlade county, where the seven-day average of Covid cases is one of the state’s highest, Matucheski suspects the pandemic accounts for some of the increase in absentee ballots. The rest, she chalks up to political interest.
“It’s the pandemic, but it’s also politics and the state of the world that has more people interested in voting. We’ve had people that lived here for years and years and have never voted, and this election is drawing them out,” Matucheski said.


theguardian--2020-10-23--Sudan and Israel agree US-brokered deal on normalising relations

Israel and Sudan have agreed to work towards normalising relations in a deal brokered by the US that would make Sudan the third Arab country to set aside hostilities with Israel in the past two months .
Donald Trump sealed the agreement in a phone call on Friday with the Israeli prime minister , Benjamin Netanyahu , his Sudanese counterpart , Abdalla Hamdok , and Abdel Fattah al-Burhan , the head of Sudan ’ s transitional military council .
“ The leaders agreed to the normalisation of relations between Sudan and Israel and to end the state of belligerence between @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by the three countries said .
However , it was not immediately clear whether Sudan ’ s transitional government has the authority to strike such a deal .
The country remains without a parliament and elections are due in 2022 .
Trump sought to score domestic political points over Joe Biden , his challenger in next month ’ s US presidential election , asking Netanyahu : “ Do you think Sleepy Joe could have made this deal ?
” Netanyahu responded : “ Uh … one thing I can tell you is , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ anyone in America.
” Trump , seeking to appeal to pro-Israel voters , has pushed countries in the Arab world to normalise relations with the Jewish state .
Last month the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain agreed to establish ties with Israel under US-mediated deals , despite protests from the Palestinian leadership .
Wasel Abu Youssef , a senior Palestinian Liberation Organisation official , described Sudan ’ s decision as a “ new stab in the back ” .
Though Khartoum has been largely marginal to Middle Eastern politics in recent decades , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ After the 1967 war , Arab powers met in Khartoum to pledge three “ noes ” : no peace with Israel , no recognition of Israel , and no negotiations with Israel .
Netanyahu said Sudan was now saying the opposite .
“ Yes to peace with Israel , yes to the recognition of Israel , and yes to normalisation with Israel .
This is a new era.
” Khartoum ’ s fragile transitional government had come under heavy pressure from Washington , which offered incentives , including help to access billions of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ multilateral organisations .
As part of the agreement , Trump took steps to remove Sudan from a US government list of countries accused of promoting terrorism .
In a statement , the White House said Sudan and Israel had agreed to end the state of belligerence between their nations , and to begin economic and trade relations , with an initial focus on agriculture .
“ This is obviously a great breakthrough , ” Trump ’ s son-in-law and adviser , Jared Kushner , told Reuters .
“ Getting peace agreements done are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ them look right now .
They are very hard to do.
” The announcement came after sunset in Israel and during Shabbat , the Jewish holy day of rest , when the country largely closes down , meaning there was little immediate response from politicians or the public .
While Sudan has far from fully committed to the deal , it will be seen in Israel as a major step forward .
Unlike the UAE and Bahrain , which have never fought with the Jewish state , Sudan sent forces to fight in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in 1948 and during the six-day war of 1967 .
In the 1970s , Israel backed Sudanese insurgents fighting the Khartoum government .
Raphael Ahren , a journalist for the Times of Israel newspaper , wrote earlier on Friday that peace with Sudan would be a “ whole new ball game ” in comparison with the UAE and Bahrain deals .
“ For one , a warm yes from the capital known for the ‘ three noes ’ would likely have a tremendous psychological impact on Israelis .
‘ Those who used to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ us , ’ many might reasonably say.
” However , resistance in Sudan is likely to be significant .
Hamdok said last month that he had told the US secretary of state , Mike Pompeo , he would not link his country ’ s removal from the terrorism list with normalisation of relations with Israel .
Before his fall in 2019 , the authoritarian ruler Omar al-Bashir had shifted from a de facto alliance with Iran to closer relations with Saudi Arabia , and there have been contacts between the intelligence services of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Burhan , the most senior figure under the country ’ s power-sharing arrangement , held an unannounced meeting with Netanyahu in Uganda this year .
Netanyahu later said the two governments were “ establishing cooperative relations ” , and Sudan has agreed to allow flights to Israel to fly over its territory .
The military leaders in the mixed transitional government appear to have been more enthusiastic about the normalisation of ties with Israel than the civilian leaders , who fear that the legitimacy of the new administration may be undermined by the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ testament to the influence still wielded by the US in east Africa .
Washington has moved to incrementally restore relations with Sudan over recent years , but has insisted that outstanding legal claims are settled before the country is struck from its list of state sponsors of terrorism .
Sudan has agreed to pay $ 335m in compensation to victims of the al-Qaida bombings of US embassies in Kenya and Tanzania in 1998 .
A US court decided that the Bashir regime had provided crucial assistance to Osama bin Laden ’ s group @ @ @ @ @ @ @ attacks .
Earlier on Friday , Trump told Congress he would formally strike Sudan from the terrorism list .
Congress will have to approve the president ’ s decision .
The designation as a state sponsor of terrorism has denied Sudan access to debt relief and foreign financing .
Meanwhile , the country ’ s economy has been crippled by decades of Bashir ’ s misrule , continuing internal conflict , recent political upheaval and the Covid-19 pandemic .
Millions of people are facing hardship as food and fuel prices have soared .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ Hamdok thanked Trump for signing the executive order to remove Sudan from the list .
“ We ’ re working closely with the US administration and Congress to conclude the … removal process in a timely manner .
We work towards international relations that best serve our people ” the tweet read .

Israel and Sudan have agreed to work towards normalising relations in a deal brokered by the US that would make Sudan the third Arab country to set aside hostilities with Israel in the past two months.
Donald Trump sealed the agreement in a phone call on Friday with the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, his Sudanese counterpart, Abdalla Hamdok, and Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, the head of Sudan’s sovereign council.
“The leaders agreed to the normalisation of relations between Sudan and Israel and to end the state of belligerence between their nations,” a joint statement by the three countries said.
However, it was not immediately clear whether Sudan’s transitional government has the authority to strike such a deal. The country remains without a parliament and elections are due in 2022.
Trump sought to score domestic political points over Joe Biden, his challenger in next month’s US presidential election, asking Netanyahu:“Do you think Sleepy Joe could have made this deal?”
Netanyahu responded: “Uh … one thing I can tell you is, we appreciate the help for peace from anyone in America.”
Trump, seeking to appeal to pro-Israel voters, has pushed countries in the Arab world to normalise relations with the Jewish state. Last month the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain agreed to establish ties with Israel under US-mediated deals, despite protests from the Palestinian leadership.
Wasel Abu Youssef, a senior Palestinian Liberation Organisation official, described Sudan’s decision as a “new stab in the back”.
Though Khartoum has been largely marginal to Middle Eastern politics in recent decades, the normalisation has significant symbolic value. After the 1967 war, Arab powers met in Khartoum to pledge three “noes”: no peace with Israel, no recognition of Israel, and no negotiations with Israel.
Netanyahu said Sudan was now saying the opposite. “Yes to peace with Israel, yes to the recognition of Israel, and yes to normalisation with Israel. This is a new era.”
Khartoum’s fragile transitional government had come under heavy pressure from Washington, which offered incentives, including help to access billions of dollars of desperately needed financial assistance from multilateral organisations.
As part of the agreement, Trump took steps to remove Sudan from a US government list of countries accused of promoting terrorism.
In a statement, the White House said Sudan and Israel had agreed to end the state of belligerence between their nations, and to begin economic and trade relations, with an initial focus on agriculture.
“This is obviously a great breakthrough,” Trump’s son-in-law and adviser, Jared Kushner, told Reuters. “Getting peace agreements done are not as easy as we are making them look right now. They are very hard to do.”
The announcement came after sunset in Israel and during Shabbat, the Jewish holy day of rest, when the country largely closes down, meaning there was little immediate response from politicians or the public.
While Sudan has far from fully committed to the deal, it will be seen in Israel as a major step forward. Unlike the UAE and Bahrain, which have never fought with the Jewish state, Sudan sent forces to fight in the war around Israel’s creation in 1948 and during the six-day war of 1967. In the 1970s, Israel backed Sudanese insurgents fighting the Khartoum government.
Raphael Ahren, a journalist for the Times of Israel newspaper, wrote earlier on Friday that peace with Sudan would be a “whole new ball game” in comparison with the UAE and Bahrain deals. “For one, a warm yes from the capital known for the ‘three noes’ would likely have a tremendous psychological impact on Israelis. ‘Those who used to reject us so bitterly have finally embraced us,’ many might reasonably say.”
However, resistance in Sudan is likely to be significant. Hamdok said last month that he had told the US secretary of state, Mike Pompeo, he would not link his country’s removal from the terrorism list with normalisation of relations with Israel.
A Sudanese protest against an Israeli military offensive on the Gaza Strip in 2014. Photograph: Ashraf Shazly/AFP/Getty Images
Before his fall in 2019, the authoritarian ruler Omar al-Bashir had shifted from a de facto alliance with Iran to closer relations with Saudi Arabia, and there have been contacts between the intelligence services of Israel and Sudan in recent years.
Burhan, the most senior figure under the country’s power-sharing arrangement, held an unannounced meeting with Netanyahu in Uganda this year. Netanyahu later said the two governments were “establishing cooperative relations”, and Sudan has agreed to allow flights to Israel to fly over its territory.
The military leaders in the mixed transitional government appear to have been more enthusiastic about the normalisation of ties with Israel than the civilian leaders, who fear that the legitimacy of the new administration may be undermined by the move.
But the deal is a testament to the influence still wielded by the US in east Africa. Washington has moved to incrementally restore relations with Sudan over recent years, but has insisted that outstanding legal claims are settled before the country is struck from its list of state sponsors of terrorism.
Sudan has agreed to pay $335m in compensation to victims of the al-Qaida bombings of US embassies in Kenya and Tanzania in 1998. A US court decided that the Bashir regime had provided crucial assistance to Osama bin Laden’s group and was therefore partially responsible for the attacks.
Earlier on Friday, Trump told Congress he would formally strike Sudan from the terrorism list. Congress will have to approve the president’s decision.
The designation as a state sponsor of terrorism has denied Sudan access to debt relief and foreign financing. Meanwhile, the country’s economy has been crippled by decades of Bashir’s misrule, continuing internal conflict, recent political upheaval and the Covid-19 pandemic. Millions of people are facing hardship as food and fuel prices have soared.
In a tweet earlier on Friday, Hamdok thanked Trump for signing the executive order to remove Sudan from the list. “We’re working closely with the US administration and Congress to conclude the … removal process in a timely manner. We work towards international relations that best serve our people” the tweet read.


theguardian--2020-10-23--Film-maker Alexandra Pelosi: 'I think phones are more dangerous than guns'

America is , as the refrain goes , divided .
This has been demonstrated empirically , with evidence on America ’ s increasing political polarization , and anecdotally , if you ’ ve lived in America for the past decade , and especially the last four years .
Easily legible examples of a country fraying at the seams abound ; American Selfie : One Nation Shoots Itself , a new documentary from Showtime , serializes some of the most prominent ones of the last year , with a retrospective of such indelible yet quickly faded images as crematory trucks in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Trump motorcycle rally in pandemic summer South Dakota , and a fraught border checkpoint in El Paso , Texas .
Hyper-partisanship is something American Selfie ’ s director , Alexandra Pelosi , knows well – her mother , the House speaker , Nancy Pelosi , is one of the Maga-sphere ’ s most loathed targets , and a frequent recipient of the president ’ s Twitter ire .
The Democratic leader ’ s youngest daughter , 50 , has over the course of 13 films fashioned herself as a traverser of America @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the conservative mindset .
She embedded with the George W Bush campaign bus for her first film , Journeys with George ; 2018 ’ s Outside the Bubble ( her 12th documentary for HBO ) endeavored to parse the Trump voter psyche with visits to “ real America ” , from coalminers in Pennsylvania to survivors of Hurricane Harvey in Port Arthur , Texas .
American Selfie grew out of her longstanding tradition of campaign road-trip films , a mission she has described as “ taking the temperature of America ” .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of how America looks in 2020 ” during a year when , as a calling card says at the beginning , “ smartphones and social media changed the course of American history ” .
That change specifically in 2020 , Pelosi told the Guardian , is the nationwide movement for social justice and Black Lives Matter launched by cellphone footage of the killing of George Floyd by Minneapolis police in May .
American Selfie , hopscotching across the country from September 2019 until last month , gets to Minneapolis in its final half @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Cloud Gate in Chicago , explaining how to take the ideal selfie ; round-the-corner lines at the Apple store in Manhattan for the launch of the new iPhone in September 2019 – a celebration of American tech consumerism just days before , the film notes , an international Climate March .
The contrast encapsulates what Pelosi sees as the double-edged sword of mobile cameras in a film that quickly moves beyond the literal selfie .
“ For every pop tart , every sorority girl who was standing in line for a new iPhone @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , one 17-year-old girl used that phone to start a revolution , ” said Pelosi , referring to Darnella Frazier , who filmed the murder of George Floyd on what was supposed to be a trip to the grocery store .
Frazier “ used her phone to show that we are all war photographers , we can all use our phones for good , to show the world what ’ s happening ” .
In making American Selfie , Pelosi came to see the cellphone as ironically both the propulsion of American division @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ Every single person I talked to , no matter who they were going to vote for or if they weren ’ t going to vote at all or didn ’ t even know who was on the ballot , would say : social media is destroying our mental health , ” she said .
“ It ’ s destroying our conversation.
” “ People are so much angrier because of something they read on the internet that may or may not be true , ” she said .
“ People now have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ them toxic mistruths.
” In her man-on-the-street-style interviews for American Selfie , Pelosi riffs with subjects from two different conceptions of America : one , a generally fact-based understanding of the racism exposed by the Trump presidency ; the other a fandom of the president and the “ America First ” , “ don ’ t tread on me ” ethos he embodies .
Often , she films , along with news cameras and countless iPhones , the two camps screaming at each other – at a Minneapolis Trump rally in fall 2019 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Omar , a Muslim Somali-American to “ go back home ” .
At Black Lives Matter protests in DC , an abortion rights march at the Capitol in February , and a “ reopen ” protest in Sacramento this summer .
The chasm between the two groups in the streets this year has , she said , widened in the years since she began filming .
“ There used to be we had something called facts , and we could all say , ‘ here are the facts , now you can have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ re allowed to be pro-gun or anti-gun , you ’ re allowed to be pro-life or pro-choice , but now we don ’ t have the same set of facts .
We ’ re not operating in truth any more.
” Pelosi is a self-professed abstinent from hyper-connectivity – she doesn ’ t use social media , she says , except to understand TikTok enough to know what her two teenage sons are consuming ( they have new iPhones despite her objections after she says her 12-year-old raised the money via a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ t shift to an iPhone until March of this year , when the pandemic made human interaction via screen unavoidable .
Still , she has come to see iPhones as a major threat to American democracy : “ I always tell my kids : I would rather buy you a gun than an iPhone , ” she said .
“ Because a gun is something you control – I can pull the trigger and shoot you if I want to , but an iPhone is controlling you .
There are tech companies that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ your mental health , shooting little bullets at your brain to stimulate you or depress you .
“ I think phones are much more dangerous than guns.
” Pelosi does , however , find some redeeming qualities in smartphones and social media : “ It can be used for good , that ’ s your choice .
You can use it to fall off the side of the Grand Canyon to take a selfie – many people have fallen to their death trying to take the perfect selfie , you could use it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it to amplify a message that you want communicated or an idea that you want communicated , ” she said , referencing Frazier ’ s filming of Floyd ’ s killing , footage that made anti-black police brutality undeniable .
Asked about the pitfalls of parachute journalism – the much-criticized practice of dropping into a community to quickly refract an explanation of America to a coastal , city readership – when reporting on so many places for American Selfie , Pelosi replied that she saw the film more as a collection of highly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ communities .
“ When you go on vacation , you don ’ t live there , but you feel like you get to know a place , right ?
” she said .
Pelosi , who works with a handheld camera sans production team , said she never felt like she was interviewing ; “ I just talk to people , ” she said .
“ I selected iconic events to see what people had to say , ” she said , from the painful reopening of a Walmart in El Paso where @ @ @ @ @ @ @ gunman in August 2019 , to the Super Bowl in Miami .
“ The word selfie has never been a comprehensive – this is just a snapshot .
All this is is a snapshot .
I ’ m not writing a history book that you ’ re going to study .
This is a selfie ; it ’ s as disposable.
” What made this year – this taking of the temperature , so to speak – different from election-year road trips in the past ?
“ This was the year white America @ @ @ @ @ @ @ We can ’ t hide it , we can ’ t deny it any longer .
We can ’ t pretend we don ’ t have these ghosts in our closet and we have to face it.
” • None American Selfie : One Nation Shoots Itself airs on Showtime on 23 October with a UK date to be announced

America is, as the refrain goes, divided. This has been demonstrated empirically, with evidence on America’s increasing political polarization, and anecdotally, if you’ve lived in America for the past decade, and especially the last four years. Easily legible examples of a country fraying at the seams abound; American Selfie: One Nation Shoots Itself, a new documentary from Showtime, serializes some of the most prominent ones of the last year, with a retrospective of such indelible yet quickly faded images as crematory trucks in the height of pandemic New York, the Trump motorcycle rally in pandemic summer South Dakota, and a fraught border checkpoint in El Paso, Texas.
Hyper-partisanship is something American Selfie’s director, Alexandra Pelosi, knows well – her mother, the House speaker, Nancy Pelosi, is one of the Maga-sphere’s most loathed targets, and a frequent recipient of the president’s Twitter ire. The Democratic leader’s youngest daughter, 50, has over the course of 13 films fashioned herself as a traverser of America’s cultural divides and interpreter of the conservative mindset. She embedded with the George W Bush campaign bus for her first film, Journeys with George; 2018’s Outside the Bubble (her 12th documentary for HBO) endeavored to parse the Trump voter psyche with visits to “real America”, from coalminers in Pennsylvania to survivors of Hurricane Harvey in Port Arthur, Texas.
American Selfie grew out of her longstanding tradition of campaign road-trip films, a mission she has described as “taking the temperature of America”. The film seeks to “take a selfie of how America looks in 2020” during a year when, as a calling card says at the beginning, “smartphones and social media changed the course of American history”. That change specifically in 2020, Pelosi told the Guardian, is the nationwide movement for social justice and Black Lives Matter launched by cellphone footage of the killing of George Floyd by Minneapolis police in May. American Selfie, hopscotching across the country from September 2019 until last month, gets to Minneapolis in its final half, but starts literally: tourists at Cloud Gate in Chicago, explaining how to take the ideal selfie; round-the-corner lines at the Apple store in Manhattan for the launch of the new iPhone in September 2019 – a celebration of American tech consumerism just days before, the film notes, an international Climate March.
The contrast encapsulates what Pelosi sees as the double-edged sword of mobile cameras in a film that quickly moves beyond the literal selfie. “For every pop tart, every sorority girl who was standing in line for a new iPhone to take pictures of her perfect life, one 17-year-old girl used that phone to start a revolution,” said Pelosi, referring to Darnella Frazier, who filmed the murder of George Floyd on what was supposed to be a trip to the grocery store. Frazier “used her phone to show that we are all war photographers, we can all use our phones for good, to show the world what’s happening”.
In making American Selfie, Pelosi came to see the cellphone as ironically both the propulsion of American division and a unifying source of concern. “Every single person I talked to, no matter who they were going to vote for or if they weren’t going to vote at all or didn’t even know who was on the ballot, would say: social media is destroying our mental health,” she said. “It’s destroying our conversation.”
“People are so much angrier because of something they read on the internet that may or may not be true,” she said. “People now have these devices in their hands that feed them toxic mistruths.”
Alexandra Pelosi: ‘Social media is destroying our mental health.’ Photograph: Victoria Will/Invision/AP
In her man-on-the-street-style interviews for American Selfie, Pelosi riffs with subjects from two different conceptions of America: one, a generally fact-based understanding of the racism exposed by the Trump presidency; the other a fandom of the president and the “America First”, “don’t tread on me” ethos he embodies. Often, she films, along with news cameras and countless iPhones, the two camps screaming at each other – at a Minneapolis Trump rally in fall 2019, after Trump called for Representative Ilhan Omar, a Muslim Somali-American to “go back home”. At Black Lives Matter protests in DC, an abortion rights march at the Capitol in February, and a “reopen” protest in Sacramento this summer.
The chasm between the two groups in the streets this year has, she said, widened in the years since she began filming. “There used to be we had something called facts, and we could all say, ‘here are the facts, now you can have an opinion about those facts, you’re allowed to be pro-gun or anti-gun, you’re allowed to be pro-life or pro-choice, but now we don’t have the same set of facts. We’re not operating in truth any more.”
Pelosi is a self-professed abstinent from hyper-connectivity – she doesn’t use social media, she says, except to understand TikTok enough to know what her two teenage sons are consuming (they have new iPhones despite her objections after she says her 12-year-old raised the money via a lemonade stand); she didn’t shift to an iPhone until March of this year, when the pandemic made human interaction via screen unavoidable. Still, she has come to see iPhones as a major threat to American democracy: “I always tell my kids: I would rather buy you a gun than an iPhone,” she said. “Because a gun is something you control – I can pull the trigger and shoot you if I want to, but an iPhone is controlling you. There are tech companies that have algorithms to shoot little bullets at your mental health, shooting little bullets at your brain to stimulate you or depress you.
“I think phones are much more dangerous than guns.”
Photograph: Courtesy of MTV Documentary Films/Showtime
Pelosi does, however, find some redeeming qualities in smartphones and social media: “It can be used for good, that’s your choice. You can use it to fall off the side of the Grand Canyon to take a selfie – many people have fallen to their death trying to take the perfect selfie, you could use it for that – or you could use it to amplify a message that you want communicated or an idea that you want communicated,” she said, referencing Frazier’s filming of Floyd’s killing, footage that made anti-black police brutality undeniable.
Asked about the pitfalls of parachute journalism – the much-criticized practice of dropping into a community to quickly refract an explanation of America to a coastal, city readership – when reporting on so many places for American Selfie, Pelosi replied that she saw the film more as a collection of highly public events than in-depth portraits of different communities. “When you go on vacation, you don’t live there, but you feel like you get to know a place, right?” she said. Pelosi, who works with a handheld camera sans production team, said she never felt like she was interviewing; “I just talk to people,” she said.
“I selected iconic events to see what people had to say,” she said, from the painful reopening of a Walmart in El Paso where 22 people were killed by a racist gunman in August 2019, to the Super Bowl in Miami. “The word selfie has never been a comprehensive – this is just a snapshot. All this is is a snapshot. I’m not writing a history book that you’re going to study. This is a selfie; it’s as disposable.”
What made this year – this taking of the temperature, so to speak – different from election-year road trips in the past? “This was the year white America woke up,” Pelosi said. We can’t hide it, we can’t deny it any longer. We can’t pretend we don’t have these ghosts in our closet and we have to face it.”


theguardian--2020-10-23--Dare we dream of a Joe Biden win? Given all that's at stake, not yet | Jonathan Freedland

A friend calls to say he ’ s been having anxiety dreams about Donald Trump .
Another , a highly rational man with a forensic intellect , tells me he ’ s found himself praying for a Joe Biden victory .
A third reports checking polling website fivethirtyeight.com in the dead of night .
Sometimes twice .
None of these people live in the US , and none is a US citizen .
More to the point , none of them is especially neurotic .
But something about the US presidential election , little more than a week away , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for the American Psychological Association found that more than two-thirds of American adults describe the current contest as “ a significant source of stress in their lives ” , and that angst is radiating across the world .
Last night ’ s second and final TV debate will hardly have helped .
Trailing in the polls , it was Trump who needed a moment that might upend the race , and he didn ’ t get one .
On the other hand , he performed better than in the first bout – still @ @ @ @ @ @ @ delivered with greater self-restraint – allowing commentators to rate this encounter a tie , give or take .
Which means we ’ re back to the status quo ante , with all the same dread as before .
The pundit class has an extra layer of unease .
Addressing her fellow TV talking heads on Thursday , the MSNBC anchor Kasie Hunt declared that none of them were daring to say what they truly think because “ we ’ re all too shell-shocked by what happened in 2016 ” .
If they hadn @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the experience of mistakenly assuming Hillary Clinton would win four years ago , they ’ d now be willing to say out loud what , in Hunt ’ s view , is obvious : that all the signs point to a comfortable Biden victory on 3 November .
For all that , I ’ m in the same camp as my insomniac friends , doomscrolling through the news at ungodly hours .
I admit that much of this is superstition , with little relationship to reason .
But after what happened last time @ @ @ @ @ @ @ – not only for the US , but for the planet – I ’ d argue that it falls into a category we might call justified irrationality .
It might be the warning from polling guru Nate Silver that , sure , his model currently gives Trump only a 12 % chance of victory , but that “ 12 % is not nothing ” .
It might be that in the key battleground states , “ Republicans have swamped Democrats in adding new voters to the rolls ” , according to one expert @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , while Trump is palpably losing among women , people of colour and Americans with college degrees , he ’ s expanding the segment of the electorate that has always loved him : white male voters in rural areas especially .
In 2016 , the number-crunchers assumed he had maxed out that demographic , but what if there ’ s more meat on that bone ?
Meanwhile , the Washington Post reports that the Trump campaign has a “ massive get-out-the-vote ” operation in the key states , “ with a larger volunteer @ @ @ @ @ @ @ longer than Biden ” .
I can keep going in this vein , but here are two specific worries .
First , a poll lead of a few points in a must-win state is not good enough for Biden .
Voter suppression – deliberately reducing turnout in Democratic areas , especially among Black and minority Americans – is deeply entrenched .
Witness this month the early voters queueing for 11 hours to cast a ballot this month , inevitable when Black neighbourhoods have far fewer polling stations than white neighbourhoods .
It means @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not the same as actually managing to do so .
What ’ s more , millions of Americans are voting for Biden by mail – and yet postal ballots tend to get rejected in greater numbers than in-person votes , deemed spoilt because someone used the wrong kind of envelope , their signature didn ’ t match the one on file , or their vote arrived late .
Legal battles over which votes to accept could ultimately go all the way to the Supreme Court .
Next week is set to see the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , just in time to enable Republicans to win those election-related cases by at least a 5-4 majority .
A second worry arises from a 2016 memory .
At the Republican convention in Cleveland that year , I heard Kellyanne Conway predict that Trump would do better than expected , because so many voters were not telling the truth to pollsters : it was not “ socially acceptable ” to back Trump , so people kept it quiet .
Given all he ’ s said and done since , surely it ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in some circles , to be a Trump supporter now .
Could polls be missing shy Republicans , including those who were looking for permission to vote for Trump and found it in his relatively restrained debate performance last night ?
Set against all that is , I know , a much greater weight of evidence in Biden ’ s favour .
He ’ s so far ahead that even if the polls are badly off , he still wins .
And he leads in the states that matter most .
It ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2016 too , but her lead was much more volatile ; Biden ’ s has been steadier .
His campaign has a huge war chest , comfortably able to outspend Trump in TV ads in this last stretch .
Above all , this is not 2016 : Trump is now a known quantity , and Biden is not the polarising figure that Clinton was .
Most Americans regard Biden as safe , unthreatening and fundamentally decent ( which is why Democrats were shrewd to pick him ) .
Those are all rational reasons @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Biden win .
The trouble is , elections are not a wholly rational business .
They involve fear and hope , our future and our fate .
That ’ s why they invade our dreams .
• Join Guardian journalists Jonathan Freedland , Kenya Evelyn , David Smith and Sarah Churchwell for a Guardian Live event on the US election results on Wednesday 4 November , 7pm GMT ( 3pm EST ) .
Book tickets here • Guardian Masterclasses present A Brief History of Modern US Elections with Jonathan Freedland on Tuesday 17 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 1.30pm and 3.30pm EST ) .
Book tickets here

A friend calls to say he’s been having anxiety dreams about Donald Trump. Another, a highly rational man with a forensic intellect, tells me he’s found himself praying for a Joe Biden victory. A third reports checking polling website fivethirtyeight.com in the dead of night. Sometimes twice.
None of these people live in the US, and none is a US citizen. More to the point, none of them is especially neurotic. But something about the US presidential election, little more than a week away, is stressing people out. One study for the American Psychological Association found that more than two-thirds of American adults describe the current contest as “a significant source of stress in their lives”, and that angst is radiating across the world.
Last night’s second and final TV debate will hardly have helped. Trailing in the polls, it was Trump who needed a moment that might upend the race, and he didn’t get one. On the other hand, he performed better than in the first bout – still the same stream of lies, but delivered with greater self-restraint – allowing commentators to rate this encounter a tie, give or take. Which means we’re back to the status quo ante, with all the same dread as before.
The pundit class has an extra layer of unease. Addressing her fellow TV talking heads on Thursday, the MSNBC anchor Kasie Hunt declared that none of them were daring to say what they truly think because “we’re all too shell-shocked by what happened in 2016”. If they hadn’t been so badly burned by the experience of mistakenly assuming Hillary Clinton would win four years ago, they’d now be willing to say out loud what, in Hunt’s view, is obvious: that all the signs point to a comfortable Biden victory on 3 November.
For all that, I’m in the same camp as my insomniac friends, doomscrolling through the news at ungodly hours. I admit that much of this is superstition, with little relationship to reason. But after what happened last time, and with so much at stake – not only for the US, but for the planet – I’d argue that it falls into a category we might call justified irrationality.
It might be the warning from polling guru Nate Silver that, sure, his model currently gives Trump only a 12% chance of victory, but that “12% is not nothing”. It might be that in the key battleground states, “Republicans have swamped Democrats in adding new voters to the rolls”, according to one expert analysis.
That raises the possibility that, while Trump is palpably losing among women, people of colour and Americans with college degrees, he’s expanding the segment of the electorate that has always loved him: white male voters in rural areas especially. In 2016, the number-crunchers assumed he had maxed out that demographic, but what if there’s more meat on that bone? Meanwhile, the Washington Post reports that the Trump campaign has a “massive get-out-the-vote” operation in the key states, “with a larger volunteer effort that has been on the ground longer than Biden”.
I can keep going in this vein, but here are two specific worries. First, a poll lead of a few points in a must-win state is not good enough for Biden. Voter suppression – deliberately reducing turnout in Democratic areas, especially among Black and minority Americans – is deeply entrenched. Witness this month the early voters queueing for 11 hours to cast a ballot this month, inevitable when Black neighbourhoods have far fewer polling stations than white neighbourhoods. It means that wanting to vote for Biden is not the same as actually managing to do so.
What’s more, millions of Americans are voting for Biden by mail – and yet postal ballots tend to get rejected in greater numbers than in-person votes, deemed spoilt because someone used the wrong kind of envelope, their signature didn’t match the one on file, or their vote arrived late. Legal battles over which votes to accept could ultimately go all the way to the Supreme Court. Next week is set to see the swearing-in of Trump nominee Amy Coney Barrett, just in time to enable Republicans to win those election-related cases by at least a 5-4 majority.
A second worry arises from a 2016 memory. At the Republican convention in Cleveland that year, I heard Kellyanne Conway predict that Trump would do better than expected, because so many voters were not telling the truth to pollsters: it was not “socially acceptable” to back Trump, so people kept it quiet. Given all he’s said and done since, surely it’s even more socially unacceptable, at least in some circles, to be a Trump supporter now. Could polls be missing shy Republicans, including those who were looking for permission to vote for Trump and found it in his relatively restrained debate performance last night?
Set against all that is, I know, a much greater weight of evidence in Biden’s favour. He’s so far ahead that even if the polls are badly off, he still wins. And he leads in the states that matter most. It’s true that Clinton was ahead in 2016 too, but her lead was much more volatile; Biden’s has been steadier. His campaign has a huge war chest, comfortably able to outspend Trump in TV ads in this last stretch.
Above all, this is not 2016: Trump is now a known quantity, and Biden is not the polarising figure that Clinton was. Most Americans regard Biden as safe, unthreatening and fundamentally decent (which is why Democrats were shrewd to pick him).
Those are all rational reasons to breathe easy and prepare for a Biden win. The trouble is, elections are not a wholly rational business. They involve fear and hope, our future and our fate. That’s why they invade our dreams.
Jonathan Freedland is a Guardian columnist
Join Guardian journalists Jonathan Freedland, Kenya Evelyn, David Smith and Sarah Churchwell for a Guardian Live event on the US election results on Wednesday 4 November, 7pm GMT (3pm EST). Book tickets here


theguardian--2020-10-23--Trump stuck fighting the 2016 war as Biden comes out on top

“ He ’ s a very confused guy , ” Democratic candidate Joe Biden said of Donald Trump during Thursday night ’ s debate .
“ He thinks he ’ s running against somebody else .
He ’ s running against Joe Biden .
I beat all those other people because I disagree with them.
” That summed up why Trump lost his last ever US presidential debate and , opinion polls suggest , is losing the election .
Trump desperately wants it be 2016 again , when his opponent , Hillary Clinton , was dragged down by misogyny , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ coastal elitism .
Back then he invited three women who had accused Bill Clinton of inappropriate sexual behaviour to a debate with her , and stalked Hillary on the stage ( “ My skin crawled , ” she said later ) .
On Thursday night , Trump reached for the same playbook by inviting Tony Bobulinski , former business partner of Biden ’ s son Hunter , to the debate in Nashville , Tennessee .
The president pushed unsubstantiated allegations against Hunter regarding his business activities in Ukraine and China based , just @ @ @ @ @ @ @ supposedly incriminating emails .
Trump said : “ But now what came out today is worse – all of the emails , the horrible emails of the money you were raking in , you and your family .
I think you owe an explanation to the American people .
Why is it somebody just had a news conference a little while ago who was essentially supposed to work with you ?
And your family ?
But what he said was damning.
” He claimed , without evidence , that Biden ’ s family @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2020 is not 2016 and his accusations fell flat .
Biden , like his running mate Kamala Harris before him , spoke volumes with bemused frowns , wry chuckles and expressions of distaste like a parent confronted by a foul nappy or diaper .
He swatted the issue away , insisting : “ I have not taken a penny from any foreign source in my life.
” And he turned the tables , noting recent media reports that Trump has a secret bank account in China and paid more in taxes in that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ : “ I have released all of my tax returns .
22 years .
Go look at them … You have not released a single solitary year .
What are you hiding ?
” Trump tried to revive the issue as the debate wore on , making reference to Ukrainian energy firm Burisma and the “ laptop from hell ” , but Biden countered with his favourite word , “ malarky ” , and said Trump ’ s lawyer Rudy Giuliani , who is pushing the conspiracy theory , “ is being used @ @ @ @ @ @ @ whole thing was vague and arcane to anyone not trapped in the Fox News universe .
Trump ’ s entire campaign has been like Jaws 2 , a vastly inferior sequel with a director who is not Steven Spielberg , trying and failing to recapture lightning in a bottle .
“ Crooked Hillary ” resonated with his supporters ; “ Sleepy Joe ” not so much .
The clarity of the “ Make America great again ” brand and a hardline message on immigration , trade and the wall has been replaced by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , again , again , ” – as he put it in Tuscon , Arizona this week – and frantic efforts to talk about anything but the coronavirus crisis pandemic that has killed more than 220,000 Americans so far this year , and infected millions , including the president himself .
But if he could not run against Clinton again , Trump would have settled for Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren , whom he could have tried to portray as radical leftists .
On Thursday he tried it with Biden on healthcare , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ medicine ” in Vermont ; it was then Biden pointed out he is his own man , and defeated the supporters of the universal healthcare plan Medicare for All .
The second and final presidential debate appeared to be a final vindication of the wisdom of Democratic primary voters – Iowa and New Hampshire apart – who judged Biden to be the pragmatic choice to run against Trump .
He solidified a candidacy that has avoided the negatives of Clinton and potential negatives of his primary rivals .
As for Trump , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ keep his inner Hulk at bay .
Advisers had warned him to avoid the smash up of the first debate when , according to the Axios website , he interrupted Biden 71 times , while Biden interrupted him 22 times .
Under the excellent moderation of NBC News ’ s Kristen Welker , it actually resembled fairly normal political spectacle .
At around half-time , the president even told Welker : “ So far , I respect very much the way you ’ re handling this.
” Let no one use the dreaded @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” with regard to Trump , however .
Wearing a Republican red tie , he unloaded a rally ’ s worth of falsehoods and was notably outmanoeuvred by Biden , wearing Democratic blue , on Covid-19 , child separations at the border and race .
“ We ’ re rounding the turn , we ’ re rounding the corner , it ’ s going away , ” Trump said of the virus , even as it surges to highest point since the summer .
“ We ’ re learning to live with it.
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ He says , ‘ We ’ re learning to live with it ’ .
People are learning to die with it.
” Biden also struck a chord with : “ Two hundred twenty thousand Americans dead .
If you hear nothing else I say tonight , hear this : anyone who is responsible , for not taking control – in fact , saying I take no responsibility initially – anyone that is responsible for that many deaths should not remain as president of the United States of America.
” He warned : “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a dark winter , a dark winter , and he has no clear plan.
” Perhaps the most revealing segment , however , was on race .
Welker , herself a woman of colour , outlined how Black parents , irrespective of economic class , give their children “ the talk ” , including how to respond when they are pulled over by police .
It was a question bound to expose Trump .
“ Nobody has done more for the Black community than Donald Trump , with the exception of Abraham Lincoln @ @ @ @ @ @ @ exception of Abraham Lincoln , nobody has done what I ’ ve done , ” Trump said .
“ I ’ m the least racist person in this room.
” Biden shot back sarcastically : “ Abraham Lincoln here is one of the most racist presidents we ’ ve had in modern history .
He pours fuel on every single racist fire – every single one .
This guy is a dog whistle as big as a foghorn.
” Criticising Biden over a 1994 crime law that led to mass incarceration , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ men “ super-predators ” .
Another lie .
It was Clinton , not Biden , who once used that term .
Proof again that Trump is still fighting the last war .
This ultimately inconsequential debate did nothing to alter to the prevailing view that he is likely to lose it .

“He’s a very confused guy,” Democratic candidate Joe Biden said of Donald Trump during Thursday night’s debate. “He thinks he’s running against somebody else. He’s running against Joe Biden. I beat all those other people because I disagree with them.”
That summed up why Trump lost his last ever US presidential debate and, opinion polls suggest, is losing the election.
Trump desperately wants it be 2016 again, when his opponent, Hillary Clinton, was dragged down by misogyny, a dogged FBI and the whiff of coastal elitism. Back then he invited three women who had accused Bill Clinton of inappropriate sexual behaviour to a debate with her, and stalked Hillary on the stage (“My skin crawled,” she said later).
On Thursday night, Trump reached for the same playbook by inviting Tony Bobulinski, former business partner of Biden’s son Hunter, to the debate in Nashville, Tennessee. The president pushed unsubstantiated allegations against Hunter regarding his business activities in Ukraine and China based, just as in the Clinton saga, on supposedly incriminating emails.
Trump said: “But now what came out today is worse – all of the emails, the horrible emails of the money you were raking in, you and your family. I think you owe an explanation to the American people. Why is it somebody just had a news conference a little while ago who was essentially supposed to work with you? And your family? But what he said was damning.”
He claimed, without evidence, that Biden’s family received $3.5m from Russia. But 2020 is not 2016 and his accusations fell flat. Biden, like his running mate Kamala Harris before him, spoke volumes with bemused frowns, wry chuckles and expressions of distaste like a parent confronted by a foul nappy or diaper. He swatted the issue away, insisting: “I have not taken a penny from any foreign source in my life.”
And he turned the tables, noting recent media reports that Trump has a secret bank account in China and paid more in taxes in that country than in America. Biden said: “I have released all of my tax returns. 22 years. Go look at them … You have not released a single solitary year. What are you hiding?”
Trump tried to revive the issue as the debate wore on, making reference to Ukrainian energy firm Burisma and the “laptop from hell”, but Biden countered with his favourite word, “malarky”, and said Trump’s lawyer Rudy Giuliani, who is pushing the conspiracy theory, “is being used as a Russian pawn”.
05:42 Trump v Biden: the key moments of the final presidential debate – video highlights
The whole thing was vague and arcane to anyone not trapped in the Fox News universe. Trump’s entire campaign has been like Jaws 2, a vastly inferior sequel with a director who is not Steven Spielberg, trying and failing to recapture lightning in a bottle. “Crooked Hillary” resonated with his supporters; “Sleepy Joe” not so much.
Biden spoke volumes with wry chuckles and expressions of distaste, like a parent confronted by a foul diaper
The clarity of the “Make America great again” brand and a hardline message on immigration, trade and the wall has been replaced by “Make America great again, again, again, again,” – as he put it in Tuscon, Arizona this week – and frantic efforts to talk about anything but the coronavirus crisis pandemic that has killed more than 220,000 Americans so far this year, and infected millions, including the president himself.
But if he could not run against Clinton again, Trump would have settled for Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren, whom he could have tried to portray as radical leftists. On Thursday he tried it with Biden on healthcare, citing Sanders’ work on “socialised medicine” in Vermont; it was then Biden pointed out he is his own man, and defeated the supporters of the universal healthcare plan Medicare for All.
The second and final presidential debate appeared to be a final vindication of the wisdom of Democratic primary voters – Iowa and New Hampshire apart – who judged Biden to be the pragmatic choice to run against Trump. He solidified a candidacy that has avoided the negatives of Clinton and potential negatives of his primary rivals.
As for Trump, the world witnessed Bruce Banner fighting hard to keep his inner Hulk at bay. Advisers had warned him to avoid the smash up of the first debate when, according to the Axios website, he interrupted Biden 71 times, while Biden interrupted him 22 times.
Under the excellent moderation of NBC News’s Kristen Welker, it actually resembled fairly normal political spectacle. At around half-time, the president even told Welker: “So far, I respect very much the way you’re handling this.”
Let no one use the dreaded terms “presidential” or “pivot” with regard to Trump, however. Wearing a Republican red tie, he unloaded a rally’s worth of falsehoods and was notably outmanoeuvred by Biden, wearing Democratic blue, on Covid-19, child separations at the border and race.
“We’re rounding the turn, we’re rounding the corner, it’s going away,” Trump said of the virus, even as it surges to highest point since the summer. “We’re learning to live with it.”
Biden seized the opening. “He says, ‘We’re learning to live with it’. People are learning to die with it.”
03:26 Trump and Biden clash on coronavirus during final presidential debate – video
Biden also struck a chord with: “Two hundred twenty thousand Americans dead. If you hear nothing else I say tonight, hear this: anyone who is responsible, for not taking control – in fact, saying I take no responsibility initially – anyone that is responsible for that many deaths should not remain as president of the United States of America.”
He warned: “We’re about to go into a dark winter, a dark winter, and he has no clear plan.”
Perhaps the most revealing segment, however, was on race. Welker, herself a woman of colour, outlined how Black parents, irrespective of economic class, give their children “the talk”, including how to respond when they are pulled over by police. It was a question bound to expose Trump.
“Nobody has done more for the Black community than Donald Trump, with the exception of Abraham Lincoln – the possible exception – but the exception of Abraham Lincoln, nobody has done what I’ve done,” Trump said. “I’m the least racist person in this room.”
Biden shot back sarcastically: “Abraham Lincoln here is one of the most racist presidents we’ve had in modern history. He pours fuel on every single racist fire – every single one. This guy is a dog whistle as big as a foghorn.”
Criticising Biden over a 1994 crime law that led to mass incarceration, the president accused him of calling African American men “super-predators”. Another lie. It was Clinton, not Biden, who once used that term. Proof again that Trump is still fighting the last war. This ultimately inconsequential debate did nothing to alter to the prevailing view that he is likely to lose it.


theguardian--2020-10-23--Joe Biden: I'm going to 'shut down the virus', not the US – video

Joe Biden said he would not shut down the country in response to the coronavirus pandemic during a campaign event @ @ @ @ @ reinforcing his answers during Thursday 's presidential debate .
Donald Trump had claimed Biden would @ @ @ @ @ he became president , but the Democratic nominee has repeatedly said he does not believe @ @ @ @ @ get the virus under control • US election : early voting could reportedly fuel highest @ @ @ @ @ • Biden and Trump diverge sharply on major issues • Trump v Biden : the @ @ @ @ @ presidential debate – video highlights

Joe Biden said he would not shut down the country in response to the coronavirus pandemic during a campaign event in Wilmington, Delaware, reinforcing his answers during Thursday's presidential debate.
Donald Trump had claimed Biden would force a nationwide lockdown if he became president, but the Democratic nominee has repeatedly said he does not believe that will be necessary to get the virus under control


theguardian--2020-10-24--Jared Kushner and Ivanka Trump threaten to sue Lincoln Project

Jared Kushner and Ivanka Trump have threatened to sue the Lincoln Project , if the anti-Trump Republicans do not remove two huge billboards from Times Square in New York City , in which they accuse the senior White House advisers of showing “ indifference ” to Americans suffering and dying under Covid-19 .
Saying the billboards would stay up , the group called Kushner and Trump “ entitled , out-of-touch bullies , who have never given the slightest indication they have any regard for the American people ” .
More than 8.4m cases of Covid-19 have been confirmed in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , with a record high of 83,757 on Friday .
As the virus surges , with the presidential election only 10 days away , the death toll has passed 223,000 .
Last month , the virus reached the White House , infecting Donald Trump , his wife Melania Trump , their son Barron and senior members of staff .
The president spent time in hospital .
Kushner and Ivanka Trump did not announce positive tests .
The Lincoln Project is staffed by Republican operatives who are supporting Joe Biden , the Democratic nominee @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Cooper Union in New York , where Abraham Lincoln gave a famous speech in 1860 .
Then , group member Rick Wilson cited “ the great political philosopher Liam Neeson ” when he said those on stage had “ a particular set of skills , skills that make us a nightmare for people like Donald Trump ” .
In August , Sarah Lenti , executive director of the Lincoln Project , told the Guardian a key aim was simply to distract the president .
“ Some of these ads have an audience of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ That ’ s always been part of the strategy .
Because every time he gets off message , spewing grievances , he ’ s not campaigning .
The idea is to get him off message again and again and again.
” With 10 days to go until the election , Trump is staging rallies at which coronavirus mitigation measures are not observed , and claiming the US is “ rounding the turn ” in containing the surging pandemic .
But with its billboards in Times Square , a stone ’ s throw from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Project may have succeeded in distracting the president ’ s daughter and son-in-law .
On Friday , the Project posted to Twitter a letter from Marc Kasowitz , an attorney who has represented Donald Trump in cases involving allegations of fraud and sexual assault , in which he spelled out the billboards ’ message .
“ I am writing concerning the false , malicious and defamatory ads that the Lincoln Project is displaying on billboards in Times Square , ” Kasowitz wrote .
“ Those ads show Ms Trump smiling and gesturing toward @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Yorkers , and attribute to Mr Kushner the statement that ‘ [ New Yorkers ] are going to suffer and that ’ s their problem ’ … with body bags underneath.
” In September , Vanity Fair reported that at a meeting on 20 March , as the pandemic accelerated and with New York reeling , Kushner railed against New York ’ s governor , Andrew Cuomo , and said : “ His people are going to suffer and that ’ s their problem.
” Ivanka Trump ' ’ s gesture on the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ controversial picture , tweeted in July , in which she promoted Goya black beans .
Kasowitz wrote : “ Of course , Mr Kushner never made any such statement , Ms Trump never made any such gesture , and the Lincoln Project ’ s representation that they did are an outrageous and shameful libel .
If these billboard ads are not immediately removed , we will sue you for what will doubtless be enormous compensatory and punitive damages.
” “ The level of indignant outrage Jared Kushner , and Ivanka Trump have shown @ @ @ @ @ @ @ indifference for the more than 223,000 people who have lost their lives due to the reckless mismanagement of Covid-19 is comical , ” a statement said .
“ While we truly enjoy living rent-free in their heads , their empty threats will not be taken any more seriously than we take Ivanka and Jared .
It is unsurprising that an administration that has never had any regard or understanding of our constitution would try to trample on our first amendment rights .
But we fully intend on making this civics lesson as painful @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have always been entitled , out-of-touch bullies , who have never given the slightest indication they have any regard for the American people .
We plan on showing them the same level of respect .
The billboards will stay up .
We consider it important that in Times Square , the crossroads of the world , people are continuously reminded of the cruelty or density and staggering lack of empathy the Trumps and the Kushners have displayed towards the American people .
”

Jared Kushner and Ivanka Trump have threatened to sue the Lincoln Project, if the anti-Trump Republicans do not remove two huge billboards from Times Square in New York City, in which they accuse the senior White House advisers of showing “indifference” to Americans suffering and dying under Covid-19.
Saying the billboards would stay up, the group called Kushner and Trump “entitled, out-of-touch bullies, who have never given the slightest indication they have any regard for the American people”.
More than 8.4m cases of Covid-19 have been confirmed in the US, according to Johns Hopkins University, with a record high of 83,757 on Friday. As the virus surges, with the presidential election only 10 days away, the death toll has passed 223,000.
Last month, the virus reached the White House, infecting Donald Trump, his wife Melania Trump, their son Barron and senior members of staff. The president spent time in hospital. Kushner and Ivanka Trump did not announce positive tests.
The Lincoln Project is staffed by Republican operatives supporting Joe Biden, the Democratic nominee. It announced itself in February at Cooper Union in New York, where Abraham Lincoln gave a famous speech in 1860. Then, group member Rick Wilson cited “the great political philosopher Liam Neeson” when he said his team had “a particular set of skills, skills that make us a nightmare for people like Donald Trump”.
In August, Sarah Lenti, the executive director of the Lincoln Project, told the Guardian a key aim was simply to distract the president.
“Some of these ads have an audience of one,” she said. “That’s always been part of the strategy. Because every time he gets off message, spewing grievances, he’s not campaigning. The idea is to get him off message again and again and again.”
Trump is currently staging rallies at which coronavirus mitigation measures are not observed, and claiming the US is “rounding the turn” in containing the surging pandemic.
But with its billboards in Times Square, a stone’s throw from Trump Tower, it seems the Lincoln Project may have succeeded in distracting the president’s daughter and son-in-law. On Friday, the Project posted to Twitter a letter from Marc Kasowitz, an attorney who has represented Donald Trump in cases involving allegations of fraud and sexual assault, in which he spelled out the billboards’ message.
“I am writing concerning the false, malicious and defamatory ads that the Lincoln Project is displaying on billboards in Times Square,” Kasowitz wrote. “Those ads show Ms Trump smiling and gesturing toward a death count of Americans and New Yorkers, and attribute to Mr Kushner the statement that ‘[New Yorkers] are going to suffer and that’s their problem’ … with body bags underneath.”
In September, Vanity Fair reported that at a meeting on 20 March, as the pandemic accelerated, Kushner railed against Governor Andrew Cuomo and said: “His people are going to suffer and that’s their problem.”
Ivanka Trump’s gesture on the billboard is taken from a controversial picture, tweeted in July, in which she promoted Goya black beans.
Kasowitz wrote: “Of course, Mr Kushner never made any such statement, Ms Trump never made any such gesture, and the Lincoln Project’s representation that they did are an outrageous and shameful libel. If these billboard ads are not immediately removed, we will sue you for what will doubtless be enormous compensatory and punitive damages.”
The Lincoln Project’s response was typically pugnacious.
“The level of indignant outrage Jared Kushner, and Ivanka Trump have shown towards the Lincoln Project for exposing their indifference for the more than 223,000 people who have lost their lives due to the reckless mismanagement of Covid-19 is comical,” a statement said.
“While we truly enjoy living rent-free in their heads, their empty threats will not be taken any more seriously than we take Ivanka and Jared. It is unsurprising that an administration that has never had any regard or understanding of our constitution would try to trample on our first amendment rights. But we fully intend on making this civics lesson as painful as possible.
“Jared and Ivanka have always been entitled, out-of-touch bullies, who have never given the slightest indication they have any regard for the American people. We plan on showing them the same level of respect. The billboards will stay up. We consider it important that in Times Square, the crossroads of the world, people are continuously reminded of the cruelty or density and staggering lack of empathy the Trumps and the Kushners have displayed towards the American people.”
In an email to the Guardian on Saturday, Carl Tobias, a law professor at the University of Richmond in Virginia, said: “It does seem unlikely that Ivanka and Jared would actually sue the Lincoln Project, especially before election day, while after that hopefully they won’t care, can return to New York and stop pretending to be public servants.
“Her father has honed litigation abuse as a business person and president, to an art form,” Tobias added, but “if they did sue, the litigation might take years to resolve, be expensive and lead to embarrassing revelations … suits like this by people who have thrust themselves into the public eye are notoriously difficult to win.
“In short, this appears to be the usual Trump family bluster.”