theguardian--2020-10-27--A Trump win or a disputed result are Canadians' worst fears

Before every US presidential election , a few disgruntled Americans can be relied on to promise that they ’ ll move to Canada if the results don ’ t go their way .
Canadians watch US elections with close attention – and occasional horror – but they rarely expect many voters to make good on that vow .
A few do make the move ; most do not .
However , in recent weeks the political temperature in the US has mounted : senior Republicans have called for supporters to “ guard ” polling stations , and right-wing militias have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ event that Donald Trump loses .
In Canada , fears are growing that the fallout from a contested vote could spill across the border .
The spectre of unrest , trade disruption , and even violence is likely to have prompted frantic strategising among senior government officials , said Thomas Juneau , a professor of international relations and security studies at the University of Ottawa .
“ We are absolutely at the point where we have to think about scenarios that … start raising really difficult questions for Canada , ” said Juneau @ @ @ @ @ @ @ second term of Trump where he begins making decisions that are bad for Canada , are both looking like plausible outcomes , he said .
As one of the United States ’ largest trading partners , Canada can not afford to be caught off-guard .
The two nations share the world ’ s longest undefended border and have highly integrated economies .
“ There are few things that Canada does better than understanding the United States , ” he said .
“ There is not a single department in the Canadian government , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ proportion of its resources and time to managing relations with the US .
Folks in the Canadian government think about the relationship every day.
” The prime minister , Justin Trudeau , who has spent much of his tenure restraining any urge to overtly criticise Trump , has expressed cautious optimism about the upcoming election and downplayed fears of violence or disruption .
“ I think we ’ re certainly all hoping for a smooth transition or a clear result from the election , like many people are around the world , ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ If it is less clear , there may be some disruptions and we need to be ready for any outcomes , and I think that ’ s what Canadians would expect of their government , and we ’ re certainly reflecting on that.
” Hundreds of billions of dollars cross the border each year in trade networks that thrive not least because of mutual co-operation and the predictability of the bilateral relationship .
Any disruption could prove catastrophic to Canada .
“ I ’ ve made no bones about saying that the greatest @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Trump , ” said Bruce Heyman , former US ambassador to Canada .
“ [ Trump ] has never admitted failure .
So when you get down to an election where you either win or lose , he has a hard time accepting the fact that he can lose .
He has never used the words ‘ defeat ’ or ‘ loss ’ in terms of the election.
” In office , Trump has frequently challenged the norms of the relationship with his country ’ s closest ally .
He has feuded with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ two-faced ” .
He has slapped tariffs on aluminium and steel and forced a redrafting of the continent ’ s free trade agreement .
He has called into question Canada ’ s critical alliances such as Nato , and the missile defence system Norad .
Trump ’ s administration has also failed to stand up for Canada during diplomatic rows with China , Russia and Saudi Arabia , leaving the country to fend for itself .
“ And I think a second term of Donald Trump will be an extreme version of what @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” said Heyman .
While the Trump era may mark a historic low in the relationship , he is not the first US president to oversee strained relations with Canada .
Prime ministers and presidents have often sparred in past , most recently when Canada decided not to join the US in its invasion of Iraq .
Trudeau ’ s father , Pierre Trudeau , who was prime minister for 15 years from the 1960s to the 1980s , likened the relationship to that of a mouse beside a snoring elephant .
His @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a period of chilled relations .
“ It is time for us to recognise … that we have very separate identities ; that we have significant differences ; and that nobody ’ s interests are furthered when these realities are obscured , ” Nixon told the Canadian parliament in 1972 .
But the current damage is clear : a recent poll found that Canadian sentiment towards the US had reached its lowest point in 40 years .
Only 29 % of residents have a favourable view of their southern neighbour .
And many @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Joe Biden to win the election .
But whatever happens on 3 November , tussles over trade and tariffs are likely to persist .
A Biden administration would still face domestic pressure to bring manufacturing jobs home and to maintain hardline US positions on commodities such as softwood lumber .
“ Because Trump is so unpopular in Canada , people naturally tend to idealise what a Biden presidency would look like , ” said Juneau .
“ But the idea Biden would just erase all of the bilateral trade irritants between the two @ @ @ @ @ @ @ think the Canadian government understands that very well .
”

Before every US presidential election, a few disgruntled Americans can be relied on to promise that they’ll move to Canada if the results don’t go their way.
Canadians watch US elections with close attention – and occasional horror – but they rarely expect many voters to make good on that vow. A few do make the move; most do not.
However, in recent weeks the political temperature in the US has mounted: senior Republicans have called for supporters to “guard” polling stations, and right-wing militias have openly called for armed revolt in the event that Donald Trump loses.
In Canada, fears are growing that the fallout from a contested vote could spill across the border.
The spectre of unrest, trade disruption, and even violence is likely to have prompted frantic strategising among senior government officials, said Thomas Juneau, a professor of international relations and security studies at the University of Ottawa.
“We are absolutely at the point where we have to think about scenarios that … start raising really difficult questions for Canada,” said Juneau.
A contested election, or a second term of Trump where he begins making decisions that are bad for Canada, are both looking like plausible outcomes, he said.
As one of the United States’ largest trading partners, Canada cannot afford to be caught off-guard. The two nations share the world’s longest undefended border and have highly integrated economies.
“There are few things that Canada does better than understanding the United States,” he said. “There is not a single department in the Canadian government, that doesn’t devote a considerable proportion of its resources and time to managing relations with the US. Folks in the Canadian government think about the relationship every day.”
The prime minister, Justin Trudeau, who has spent much of his tenure restraining any urge to overtly criticise Trump, has expressed cautious optimism about the upcoming election and downplayed fears of violence or disruption.
“I think we’re certainly all hoping for a smooth transition or a clear result from the election, like many people are around the world,” he said earlier this month. “If it is less clear, there may be some disruptions and we need to be ready for any outcomes, and I think that’s what Canadians would expect of their government, and we’re certainly reflecting on that.”
Hundreds of billions of dollars cross the border each year in trade networks that thrive not least because of mutual co-operation and the predictability of the bilateral relationship.
Any disruption could prove catastrophic to Canada.
“I’ve made no bones about saying that the greatest damage to the US-Canada relationship is Donald Trump,” said Bruce Heyman, former US ambassador to Canada. “[Trump] has never admitted failure. So when you get down to an election where you either win or lose, he has a hard time accepting the fact that he can lose. He has never used the words ‘defeat’ or ‘loss’ in terms of the election.”
In office, Trump has frequently challenged the norms of the relationship with his country’s closest ally.
He has feuded with Trudeau, calling the prime minister “two-faced”. He has slapped tariffs on aluminium and steel and forced a redrafting of the continent’s free trade agreement. He has called into question Canada’s critical alliances such as Nato, and the missile defence system Norad.
Trump’s administration has also failed to stand up for Canada during diplomatic rows with China, Russia and Saudi Arabia, leaving the country to fend for itself.
“And I think a second term of Donald Trump will be an extreme version of what we have seen in the first,” said Heyman.
While the Trump era may mark a historic low in the relationship, he is not the first US president to oversee strained relations with Canada.
Prime ministers and presidents have often sparred in past, most recently when Canada decided not to join the US in its invasion of Iraq.
Trudeau’s father, Pierre Trudeau, who was prime minister for 15 years from the 1960s to the 1980s, likened the relationship to that of a mouse beside a snoring elephant. His clash with President Richard Nixon led to a period of chilled relations.
“It is time for us to recognise … that we have very separate identities; that we have significant differences; and that nobody’s interests are furthered when these realities are obscured,” Nixon told the Canadian parliament in 1972.
But the current damage is clear: a recent poll found that Canadian sentiment towards the US had reached its lowest point in 40 years. Only 29% of residents have a favourable view of their southern neighbour.
And many blame Trump: nearly 66% want Joe Biden to win the election.
But whatever happens on 3 November, tussles over trade and tariffs are likely to persist. A Biden administration would still face domestic pressure to bring manufacturing jobs home and to maintain hardline US positions on commodities such as softwood lumber.
“Because Trump is so unpopular in Canada, people naturally tend to idealise what a Biden presidency would look like,” said Juneau. “But the idea Biden would just erase all of the bilateral trade irritants between the two countries is not true. And I think the Canadian government understands that very well.”


theguardian--2020-10-27--The Arizona county that could decide the future of Trump – and America

For years , Carlos Garcia would grab his bullhorn each afternoon and head downtown to the office of Joe Arpaio , the brash , hardline , anti-immigrant Maricopa county sheriff who became known as “ the Donald Trump of Arizona ” .
When Garcia ’ s protests began in 2007 , just a handful of devoted activists joined him .
A conservative firebrand , Arpaio was re-elected every four years by the mostly white residents of the state ’ s most populous county .
He was seemingly untouchable .
But as Arpaio ’ s crusade against immigrants intensified , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from five to 200,000 people , ” Garcia said of the protests .
On 8 November 2016 , the same night Donald Trump won the White House , Arizona finally ousted Arpaio .
After nearly a quarter-century in power , the sheriff was undone by Latinos , young progressives and white voters who Garcia believes “ felt shame over Maricopa ’ s reputation ” as a hostile and intolerant place .
Just as Arpaio ’ s tenure foreshadowed Trump ’ s national rise , the same forces that expelled the sheriff in Maricopa @ @ @ @ @ @ @ country as the president pursued his own hardline agenda .
And now , those forces – catalyzed by the coronavirus pandemic – may seal the president ’ s fate in next week ’ s US election .
“ We are a community that has suffered through Trump-like policies for such a long time , ” said Garcia , who was elected to Phoenix city council in 2018 .
This year , Latinos and others are mobilizing to defeat the “ Arpaio in the White House ” .
Maricopa county , which encompasses Arizona @ @ @ @ @ @ @ blossoming rings of surrounding suburbs , has nearly 4.5 million residents and dominates the state politically .
One third of Maricopa residents identify as Latino , according to US census data .
Over the past decade , demographic change , population growth and a cultural shift seen across America ’ s suburbs has turned this sprawling desert metropolis – a bastion of western conservatism for decades – into one of the most closely watched and fiercely contested presidential battlegrounds in the nation .
Winning a statewide election in Arizona without Maricopa is nearly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that here , in the sprawl of stucco housing developments and retirement communities , voters will deliver a referendum on Trump – and the Republican party .
“ If the president loses Arizona , it ’ ll be in large part because he lost Maricopa county , ” Jeff Flake , the former Arizona senator , told the Guardian .
The Trump administration ’ s failure to control the coronavirus pandemic and its economic fallout has hastened the state ’ s political transformation – driving moderates , independents and even some conservatives away @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a prominent Republican critic of Trump , has endorsed the Democratic nominee , Joe Biden , for president along with Cindy McCain , the widow of the late Arizona senator and 2008 Republican presidential nominee , John McCain .
Arizona has voted for the Republican presidential nominee in every election but one since 1952 , but polling this year finds Biden with a narrow but steady lead over Trump .
While it ’ s mathematically possible , no Republican has ever won the White House without the state ’ s 11 electoral votes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ decide not only who wins the White House , but which party controls the US Senate , which in turn will shape the national debate around immigration , education , healthcare and the climate crisis .
“ This state , whether you like it or not , could determine the future of America , ” the Phoenix-based rightwing activist Charlie Kirk warned Arizona voters at a Trump campaign event last month .
“ If you would ’ ve told me that 10 years ago , I would ’ ve thought you were joking.
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ Maricopa county by three percentage points – and won the state by roughly the same margin , a significantly narrower victory than previous Republican presidential hopefuls .
Just two years later , Kyrsten Sinema won the county by four percentage points to become Arizona ’ s first Democratic senator in a generation .
Sinema ’ s success was due to a confluence of factors that are also in play nationally this November : a surge in Latino turnout , plus support from voters in Phoenix ’ s traditionally conservative suburbs .
Sixteen per @ @ @ @ @ @ @ party to vote for the Democrat , according to exit polls .
In a sign of Arizona ’ s importance , Trump has visited the state half a dozen times in the past year , with another campaign stop later this week .
Biden , who has been more circumspect about travel because of the virus , visited Phoenix with his running mate , Kamala Harris , for their first joint campaign appearance earlier this month .
Both campaigns are spending lavishly on Spanish and English language advertising here , making Phoenix one @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the country .
Arizona is not only crucial in the presidential race , however .
Democratic Senate candidate Mark Kelly , the astronaut and husband of the former Arizona congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords , finds himself well ahead in a special election to fill the seat once occupied by McCain .
And Kelly ’ s Republican opponent , Senator Martha McSally , has struggled to disentangle herself from an increasingly unpopular president .
In Phoenix , meanwhile , Democrats also have their best chance of winning control of the state legislature in more than @ @ @ @ @ @ @ waiting for this moment for years .
The only surprise , some say , is that it has taken this long to arrive .
“ If you look at our history , we ’ re much more of a populist , independent state than a quote , unquote , conservative state , ” said Chad Campbell , a former Democratic state House minority leader .
“ Unfortunately , for the past decade or so , we ’ ve had some people , mainly from the Republican side , attract national attention with very @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ Now , ” he said , “ I think we ’ re starting to get back to our Arizona roots.
” When Arizona became a state in 1912 , the final addition to the contiguous US , Maricopa was a vast desert outpost , inhabited by Native Americans and westward-bound settlers .
Access to refrigeration and air conditioning in the mid-20th century transformed the arid landscape into what is now one of the largest and fastest-growing counties in the nation .
Maricopa was the most populous county Trump won in 2016 .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ it has become more competitive as its suburbs increasingly resemble cities , becoming more crowded , more educated and more diverse .
A new generation of Latinos are moving further from Phoenix , buying homes and starting families in the enveloping suburbs .
Professionals and young families from more liberal states across the country , are also moving to Arizona , lured by the promise of year-round sunshine , low taxes and affordable housing .
These newcomers are softening the state ’ s conservative edge – and changing its politics , strategists say @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Republicans who think they ’ re cowboys and cops , ” said Josh Ulibarri , a Phoenix-based Democratic pollster .
“ They are fiscally-conservative Republicans who have , over time , been pro-public education and pro-choice , and they ’ re coming to this state that is still controlled by far-right Republicans and thinking , ‘ that ’ s not my Republican party.
’ ” Yet since the election of Barack Obama in 2008 , the state Republican party has veered even more sharply to the right and has adopted Trump ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bedrock supporters .
The approach risks further alienating moderate Republican and independent voters , particularly women , who have recoiled from the party ’ s Trumpian turn .
According to a New York Times-Siena College poll , Biden is leading by 18 points with Arizona women , and , in a sign of his strength in the suburbs , by nine points in Maricopa county .
McSally is trailing her Democratic opponent by similar margins .
“ The one thing we know is that there is no future with Trumpism – it ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Flake .
Though Trump won suburban areas overall by roughly four percentage points in 2016 , opinion polls suggest his standing nationally is collapsing as women , suburbanites and college-educated voters continue to walk away from the party .
“ As a party , we are going to have to change , ” Flake continued .
“ I just hope that we do it before giving the president a second term.
” Robbie Shaw , another lifelong Republican and a former member of the Arizona house , is actively helping to elect Democrats @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Republicans for Mark [ Kelly ] ” roundtable last month , Shaw said she was appalled by the way Senate Republicans had enabled the president ’ s “ blunt , authoritarian grab for power ” .
“ Today , everything feels unsafe and it feels uncertain from our health to our money to our basic freedoms , ” she said .
At this moment , she added , “ I ’ m embarrassed to say that I ’ m a Republican.
” As Republicans reconsider their party loyalties , the young , Latino-led @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Arpaio and the anti-immigrant policies of the last decade is now working to galvanize their community once again .
Since 2010 , when the Arizona legislature passed SB1070 , one of the most restrictive anti-immigration laws in the country , One Arizona , a coalition of progressive groups , has registered 780,000 voters .
“ This has been a 15-year mission , ” said Eduardo Sainz , the Arizona state director for Mi Familia Vota .
“ And now , it is paying off.
” Most Latinos in Maricopa are young – their @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Mexican descent .
Despite the coronavirus pandemic , Mi Famila Vota canvassers have been redoubling their efforts to register as many Latino voters as possible .
On a blistering September afternoon , as temperatures reached 105F , Melissa Garcia , 23 , opened her door to canvassers , her infant in one arm and an enthusiastic chihuahua at her feet .
“ I used to think my vote doesn ’ t count , ” she said .
But this year , she plans to vote for the first time , spurred on by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ wants everybody out ” .
She mentioned the Trump ’ s administration ’ s policy of child separation – taking kids away from their parents at the southern border as a deterrent for would-be immigrants .
More than 500 children are still yet to be reunited with their parents .
“ He puts children in cages – we got so upset , ” she said .
“ I just want him out.
” In 2018 , young Latino voters cast ballots in record numbers .
An analysis of the results by Latino Decisions @ @ @ @ @ @ @ responsible ” for Democratic gains in Arizona that year .
Since then , an estimated 100,000 more Latino voters have turned 18 and become eligible to vote .
For the first time , Latinos are poised to be the nation ’ s largest non-white ethnic voting bloc in the 2020 election , with an estimated 32 million eligible to vote .
And Democrats believe their vote will be decisive this year , in swing states from Wisconsin to Arizona .
“ Everything we ’ ve fought for in healthcare , education , immigration @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the air , ” said Carlos Garcia , the Phoenix council member .
“ So there ’ s this next level of pressure on us to show up and vote.
” In Arizona , as in the rest of the country , the coronavirus pandemic has dominated the election campaign .
The virus has killed nearly 6,000 Arizonans and pushed hundreds of thousands more to file for unemployment and taken a disproportionate toll on Latino , Black and Native American residents .
Maricopa county was especially hard hit – and remains the fifth-worst @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s so tough , ” said Bill Whitmire , 56 , his voice shaking as he recounted contracting the virus earlier this year .
Now , his small , mobile coffee cart business is no more – and he and his wife are struggling with lingering symptoms of fatigue , sluggishness and confusion .
Like many Arizonans , he blames Trump and the state ’ s Republican governor , Doug Ducey .
“ I ’ m so upset , ” he said .
“ I had even voted for Ducey – he @ @ @ @ @ @ @ May , at Trump ’ s urging , Ducey rushed to reopen restaurants , businesses and salons .
Shortly after the restrictions lifted , Trump appeared maskless at an indoor rally in Phoenix to applaud the governor ’ s swift action .
By then , however , Arizona was a national hotspot , slowing efforts to revive economic activity .
Infections soared , hospitals neared capacity and funeral homes were overwhelmed .
Mayors pleaded with the governor for the authority to implement their own safety-protocols such as mask mandates to slow the virus @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Now , as new outbreaks in schools and universities fuel another surge of infections , the pandemic remains front of mind for many voters – impacting their priorities and potentially their vote .
Polling shows a majority of Americans do not approve of the president ’ s handling of the pandemic .
While Trump continues to minimize the virus and insist it will “ go away ” soon , Biden has pledged to enact a detailed , science-led plan to curb the spread and reopen schools and the economy safely .
“ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , I think I ’ m going to vote Democrat up and down the ballot , ” Whitmire said .
Like elsewhere in the country , the pandemic has also hurt Trump among the state ’ s seniors , who are among the most vulnerable and are a critical voting bloc in this popular retiree destination .
In 2016 , Trump won voters 65 or older in Arizona by 13 percentage points , according to exit polls .
But an October Monmouth poll of Arizona showed Biden leading Trump , 56 % to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ group .
Yet many conservatives believe enthusiasm for Trump and his party is more widespread than polls and fundraising figures reflect .
In the past four years , Republicans have only become even more dominant in the rural parts of the state .
They tout a recent spike in voter registration and polls that show moderates and independents still trust the president over his opponent on the economy .
At the same time , Trump maintains a firm grip on the legions of conservatives who make up the party base .
Campaign events @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hours-long lines and packed crowds of supporters who largely ignored mask wearing and social distancing guidelines .
Wearing a rhinestone “ Deplorable ” hat and American flag earrings , Peggy Stewart was among those waiting in line to attend an event with Trump ’ s eldest son , Donald Trump Jr , in Chandler last month .
Despite her confidence that Trump will again defy the polls , Stewart fears a Biden administration .
She was alarmed by scenes of violence that shook some cities in the wake of mostly peaceful demonstrations against @ @ @ @ @ @ @ police killing of George Floyd in Minneapolis .
Stewart said residents of the senior living community where she lives in Peoria want “ law and order , ” something she believes only the president can deliver .
“ I think Biden and the Democrats are trying to bring socialism to America , ” she warned darkly , echoing one of the president ’ s political attack lines .
“ Trump is trying to get us back on track.
” With one week left until election day , Maricopa County voters have already cast @ @ @ @ @ @ @ records for early voting amid predictions of a historic turnout .
But regardless of what happens in November ’ s elections , Maricopa county , like other fast-growing regions across the American south and west , is undergoing a political transformation .
In Arizona , party affiliation is now almost evenly split among Republicans , Democrats , and independents , a critical constituency of unaffiliated voters .
In 2016 , independents were critical to Trump ’ s victory , but now polling suggests they are swinging sharply away from him and his allies @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Senate race and other statewide races , it ’ s clear you can ’ t be a Trump acolyte and expect to win statewide in Arizona , ” Flake said .
“ There ’ s just too much aversion to that kind of politics.
” If Flake is right , Republicans in Arizona could , in the span of four years , lose a presidential election , a second Senate seat and potentially both chambers of the state legislature .
A resounding rejection in the traditionally conservative state would foreshadow even deeper challenges @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and west that are critical to their electoral success .
For now , liberals in the state are largely aligned behind the shared goal of removing Trump and his allies from office .
But as the Democratic party gains political power here , there is also potential for clashes between moderate Democrats and emboldened progressives , eager to push the priorities of the left on healthcare , climate and immigration .
Athena Salman , a progressive activist turned Democratic state representative from Tempe , was first elected on 8 November 2016 – the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and Trump ’ s stunning upset .
For her , Trump ’ s win had a silver lining : it was “ a wake up call ” for many , she said .
Four years later , Salman believes Arizona will not only deliver a definitive blow to Trumpism , but it will mark the beginning of a new political era .
“ Like a phoenix rising from the ashes , ” she said , “ we ’ re rebuilding Arizona .
”

Lauren Gambino and Maanvi Singh in Phoenix

For years, Carlos Garcia would grab his bullhorn each afternoon and head downtown to the office of Joe Arpaio, the brash, hardline, anti-immigrant Maricopa county sheriff who became known as “the Donald Trump of Arizona”.
When Garcia’s protests began in 2007, just a handful of devoted activists joined him. A conservative firebrand, Arpaio was re-elected every four years by the mostly white residents of the state’s most populous county. He was seemingly untouchable.
But as Arpaio’s crusade against immigrants intensified, the backlash grew. “We literally went from five to 200,000 people,” Garcia said of the protests.
On 8 November 2016, the same night Donald Trump won the White House, Arizona finally ousted Arpaio. After nearly a quarter-century in power, the sheriff was undone by Latinos, young progressives and white voters who Garcia believes “felt shame over Maricopa’s reputation” as a hostile and intolerant place.
Just as Arpaio’s tenure foreshadowed Trump’s national rise, the same forces that expelled the sheriff in Maricopa county appear to have flourished across the country as the president pursued his own hardline agenda. And now, those forces – catalyzed by the coronavirus pandemic – may seal the president’s fate in next week’s US election.
“We are a community that has suffered through Trump-like policies for such a long time,” said Garcia, who was elected to Phoenix city council in 2018. This year, Latinos and others are mobilizing to defeat the “Arpaio in the White House”.
The future of America
Maricopa county, which encompasses Arizona’s capital, Phoenix, and blossoming rings of surrounding suburbs, has nearly 4.5 million residents and dominates the state politically. One-third of Maricopa residents identify as Latino, according to US census data.
Carlos Garcia, a Phoenix city council member, in south Phoenix, Arizona, this month. Photograph: Caitlin O’Hara/The Guardian
Over the past decade, demographic change, population growth and a cultural shift seen across America’s suburbs has turned this sprawling desert metropolis – a bastion of western conservatism for decades – into one of the most closely watched and fiercely contested presidential battlegrounds in the nation.
Winning a statewide election in Arizona without Maricopa is nearly impossible. And so it is likely that here, in the sprawl of stucco housing developments and retirement communities, voters will deliver a referendum on Trump – and the Republican party.
“If the president loses Arizona, it’ll be in large part because he lost Maricopa county,” Jeff Flake, the former Arizona senator, told the Guardian.
The Trump administration’s failure to control the coronavirus pandemic and its economic fallout has hastened the state’s political transformation – driving moderates, independents and even some conservatives away from the Republican party. Flake, a prominent Republican critic of Trump, has endorsed the Democratic nominee, Joe Biden, for president along with Cindy McCain, the widow of the late Arizona senator and 2008 Republican presidential nominee, John McCain.
Arizona has voted for the Republican presidential nominee in every election but one since 1952, but polling this year finds Biden with a narrow but steady lead over Trump. While it’s mathematically possible, no Republican has ever won the White House without the state’s 11 electoral votes.
A map of Maricopa county in Arizona. Illustration: Guardian Design
So voters here are poised to decide not only who wins the White House, but which party controls the US Senate, which in turn will shape the national debate around immigration, education, healthcare and the climate crisis.
“This state, whether you like it or not, could determine the future of America,” the Phoenix-based rightwing activist Charlie Kirk warned Arizona voters at a Trump campaign event last month. “If you would’ve told me that 10 years ago, I would’ve thought you were joking.”
‘Our Arizona roots’
Four years ago, Trump carried Maricopa county by three percentage points – and won the state by roughly the same margin, a significantly narrower victory than previous Republican presidential hopefuls.
Just two years later, Kyrsten Sinema won the county by four percentage points to become Arizona’s first Democratic senator in a generation.
Sinema’s success was due to a confluence of factors that are also in play nationally this November: a surge in Latino turnout, plus support from voters in Phoenix’s traditionally conservative suburbs. Sixteen per cent of Republican women broke with the party to vote for the Democrat, according to exit polls.
The newly elected Democratic senator Kyrsten Sinema in the US Capitol in Washington on 13 November 2018. Photograph: Alexander Drago/Reuters
In a sign of Arizona’s importance, Trump has visited the state half a dozen times in the past year, with another campaign stop later this week. Biden, who has been more circumspect about travel because of the virus, visited Phoenix with his running mate, Kamala Harris, for their first joint campaign appearance earlier this month. Both campaigns are spending lavishly on Spanish and English language advertising here, making Phoenix one of the most expensive media markets in the country.
Arizona is not only crucial in the presidential race, however. The Democratic Senate candidate Mark Kelly, the astronaut and husband of the former Arizona congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords, finds himself well ahead in a special election to fill the seat once occupied by McCain. And Kelly’s Republican opponent, Senator Martha McSally, has struggled to disentangle herself from an increasingly unpopular president.
In Phoenix, meanwhile, Democrats also have their best chance of winning control of the state legislature in more than a half-century. Arizona Democrats have been waiting for this moment for years. The only surprise, some say, is that it has taken this long to arrive.
“If you look at our history, we’re much more of a populist, independent state than a quote, unquote, conservative state,” said Chad Campbell, a former Democratic state House minority leader. “Unfortunately, for the past decade or so, we’ve had some people, mainly from the Republican side, attract national attention with very extreme policies, particularly around immigration.
“Now,” he said, “I think we’re starting to get back to our Arizona roots.”
Lawn signs in east Phoenix on 14 October 2020. Photograph: Caitlin O’Hara/The Guardian
‘That’s not my Republican party’
When Arizona became a state in 1912, the final addition to the contiguous US, Maricopa was a vast desert outpost, inhabited by Native Americans and westward-bound settlers. Access to refrigeration and air conditioning in the mid-20th century transformed the arid landscape into what is now one of the largest and fastest-growing counties in the nation.
Maricopa was the most populous county Trump won in 2016. But like other Republican-leaning metropolitan regions, it has become more competitive as its suburbs increasingly resemble cities, becoming more crowded, more educated and more diverse.
A new generation of Latinos are moving further from Phoenix, buying homes and starting families in the enveloping suburbs. Professionals and young families from more liberal states across the country, are also moving to Arizona, lured by the promise of year-round sunshine, low taxes and affordable housing.
These newcomers are softening the state’s conservative edge – and changing its politics, strategists say.
“They are not these Arizona Republicans who think they’re cowboys and cops,” said Josh Ulibarri, a Phoenix-based Democratic pollster. “They are fiscally conservative Republicans who have, over time, been pro-public education and pro-choice, and they’re coming to this state that is still controlled by far-right Republicans and thinking, ‘that’s not my Republican party.’”
The one thing we know is that there is no future with Trumpism – it’s a demographic cul-de-sac Jeff Flake
Yet since the election of Barack Obama in 2008, the state Republican party has veered even more sharply to the right and has adopted Trump’s base-first strategy, almost singularly focusing on energizing bedrock supporters.
The approach risks further alienating moderate Republican and independent voters, particularly women, who have recoiled from the party’s Trumpian turn. According to a New York Times-Siena College poll, Biden is leading by 18 points with Arizona women, and, in a sign of his strength in the suburbs, by nine points in Maricopa county. McSally is trailing her Democratic opponent by similar margins.
“The one thing we know is that there is no future with Trumpism – it’s a demographic cul-de-sac,” said Flake.
Though Trump won suburban areas overall by roughly four percentage points in 2016, opinion polls suggest his standing nationally is collapsing as women, suburbanites and college-educated voters continue to walk away from the party.
“As a party, we are going to have to change,” Flake continued. “I just hope that we do it before giving the president a second term.”
Kamala Harris, Joe Biden and Cindy McCain walk to the American Indian Veterans National Memorial at the Heard Museum, on 8 October 2020, in Phoenix. Photograph: Brendan Smialowski/AFP/Getty Images
Robbie Shaw, another lifelong Republican and a former member of the Arizona house, is actively helping to elect Democrats this year. During a virtual “Republicans for Mark [Kelly]” roundtable last month, Shaw said she was appalled by the way Senate Republicans had enabled the president’s “blunt, authoritarian grab for power”.
“Today, everything feels unsafe and it feels uncertain from our health to our money to our basic freedoms,” she said. At this moment, she added, “I’m embarrassed to say that I’m a Republican.”
A Republican voter outreach center in south Phoenix, on 14 October 2020. Photograph: Caitlin O’Hara/The Guardian
A 15-year mission
As Republicans reconsider their party loyalties, the young, Latino-led protest movement that rose in opposition to Arpaio and the anti-immigrant policies of the last decade is now working to galvanize their community once again.
Since 2010, when the Arizona legislature passed SB1070, one of the most restrictive anti-immigration laws in the country, One Arizona, a coalition of progressive groups, has registered 780,000 voters.
“This has been a 15-year mission,” said Eduardo Sainz, the Arizona state director for Mi Familia Vota. “And now, it is paying off.”
Most Latinos in Maricopa are young – their median age is 26 – and of Mexican descent. Despite the coronavirus pandemic, Mi Famila Vota canvassers have been redoubling their efforts to register as many Latino voters as possible.
On a blistering September afternoon, as temperatures reached 105F, Melissa Garcia, 23, opened her door to canvassers, her infant in one arm and an enthusiastic chihuahua at her feet.
“I used to think my vote doesn’t count,” she said. But this year, she plans to vote for the first time, spurred on by how Trump talks about immigrants and “wants everybody out”.
Donald Trump holds a campaign rally at the Tucson airport two weeks before the 2020 election. Photograph: Christopher Brown/ZUMA Wire/REX/Shutterstock
She mentioned the Trump’s administration’s policy of child separation – taking kids away from their parents at the southern border as a deterrent for would-be immigrants. More than 500 children are still to be reunited with their parents.
“He puts children in cages – we got so upset,” she said. “I just want him out.”
In 2018, young Latino voters cast ballots in record numbers. An analysis of the results by Latino Decisions concluded that Latino voters were “largely responsible” for Democratic gains in Arizona that year. Since then, an estimated 100,000 more Latino voters have turned 18 and become eligible to vote.
For the first time, Latinos are poised to be the nation’s largest non-white ethnic voting bloc in the 2020 election, with an estimated 32 million eligible to vote. And Democrats believe their vote will be decisive this year, in swing states from Wisconsin to Arizona.
“Everything we’ve fought for in healthcare, education, immigration and criminal justice is all up in the air,” said Carlos Garcia, the Phoenix council member. “So there’s this next level of pressure on us to show up and vote.”
One third of Maricopa county residents identify as Latino. Photograph: Caitlin O’Hara/The Guardian
The pandemic
In Arizona, as in the rest of the country, the coronavirus pandemic has dominated the election campaign. The virus has killed nearly 6,000 Arizonans and pushed hundreds of thousands more to file for unemployment and taken a disproportionate toll on Latino, Black and Native American residents.
Maricopa county was especially hard hit – and remains the fifth-worst affected in the US.
“It’s so tough,” said Bill Whitmire, 56, his voice shaking as he recounted contracting the virus earlier this year. Now, his small, mobile coffee cart business is no more – and he and his wife are struggling with lingering symptoms of fatigue, sluggishness and confusion.
Like many Arizonans, he blames Trump and the state’s Republican governor, Doug Ducey. “I’m so upset,” he said. “I had even voted for Ducey – he seemed like an honest guy.”
In May, at Trump’s urging, Ducey rushed to reopen restaurants, businesses and salons. Shortly after the restrictions lifted, Trump appeared maskless at an indoor rally in Phoenix to applaud the governor’s swift action. By then, however, Arizona was a national hotspot, slowing efforts to revive economic activity.
Infections soared, hospitals neared capacity and funeral homes were overwhelmed. Mayors pleaded with the governor for the authority to implement their own safety protocols such as mask mandates to slow the virus’s spread. Ducey ultimately relented.
Now, as new outbreaks in schools and universities fuel another surge of infections, the pandemic remains front of mind for many voters – affecting their priorities and potentially their vote.
Polling shows a majority of Americans do not approve of the president’s handling of the pandemic. While Trump continues to minimize the virus and insist it will “go away” soon, Biden has pledged to enact a detailed, science-led plan to curb the spread and reopen schools and the economy safely.
Ann and Bill Whitmire at their home in Phoenix. They fell ill and recovered from Covid-19 earlier this year. Whitmire thinks he will vote entirely for Democrats this year. Photograph: Caitlin O’Hara/The Guardian
“For the first time in my life, I think I’m going to vote Democrat up and down the ballot,” Whitmire said.
Like elsewhere in the country, the pandemic has also hurt Trump among the state’s seniors, who are among the most vulnerable and are a critical voting bloc in this popular retiree destination. In 2016, Trump won voters 65 or older in Arizona by 13 percentage points, according to exit polls. But an October Monmouth poll of Arizona showed Biden leading Trump, 56% to 42% among voters in that age group.
Yet many conservatives believe enthusiasm for Trump and his party is more widespread than polls and fundraising figures reflect.
In the past four years, Republicans have only become even more dominant in the rural parts of the state. They tout a recent spike in voter registration and polls that show moderates and independents still trust the president over his opponent on the economy.
At the same time, Trump maintains a firm grip on the legions of conservatives who make up the party base. Campaign events with the president and his children drew hours-long lines and packed crowds of supporters who largely ignored mask wearing and social distancing guidelines.
Wearing a rhinestone “Deplorable” hat and American flag earrings, Peggy Stewart was among those waiting in line to attend an event with Trump’s eldest son, Donald Trump Jr, in Chandler last month. Despite her confidence that Trump will again defy the polls, Stewart fears a Biden administration.
She was alarmed by scenes of violence that shook some cities in the wake of mostly peaceful demonstrations against racial injustice this summer, following the police killing of George Floyd in Minneapolis. Stewart said residents of the senior living community where she lives in Peoria want “law and order”, something she believes only the president can deliver.
“I think Biden and the Democrats are trying to bring socialism to America,” she warned darkly, echoing one of the president’s political attack lines. “Trump is trying to get us back on track.”
Voters cast their ballots at the Maricopa county elections department in Phoenix. Photograph: Caitlin O’Hara/The Guardian
Arizona is changing
With one week left until election day, Maricopa county voters have already cast more than a million ballots, shattering records for early voting amid predictions of a historic turnout. But regardless of what happens in November’s elections, Maricopa county, like other fast-growing regions across the American south and west, is undergoing a political transformation.
In Arizona, party affiliation is now almost evenly split among Republicans, Democrats and independents, a critical constituency of unaffiliated voters. In 2016, independents were critical to Trump’s victory, but now polling suggests they are swinging sharply away from him and his allies.
“When you look at the Senate race and other statewide races, it’s clear you can’t be a Trump acolyte and expect to win statewide in Arizona,” Flake said. “There’s just too much aversion to that kind of politics.”
If Flake is right, Republicans in Arizona could, in the span of four years, lose a presidential election, a second Senate seat and potentially both chambers of the state legislature. A resounding rejection in the traditionally conservative state would foreshadow even deeper challenges for Republicans in states across the south and west that are critical to their electoral success.
A neighborhood in Paradise Valley, Arizona. Photograph: Caitlin O’Hara/The Guardian
For now, liberals in the state are largely aligned behind the shared goal of removing Trump and his Republican allies from office. But as the Democratic party gains political power here, there is also potential for clashes between moderate Democrats and emboldened progressives, eager to push the priorities of the left on healthcare, climate and immigration.
Athena Salman, a progressive activist turned Democratic state representative from Tempe, was first elected on 8 November 2016 – the same night as Arpaio’s defeat and Trump’s stunning upset. For her, Trump’s win had a silver lining: it was “a wake-up call” for many, she said.
Four years later, Salman believes Arizona will not only deliver a definitive blow to Trumpism, but it will mark the beginning of a new political era.
“Like a phoenix rising from the ashes,” she said, “we’re rebuilding Arizona.”


theguardian--2020-10-27--Amy Coney Barrett is sworn in as supreme court justice - as it happened

Amy Coney Barrett is a constitutional ‘ originalist ’ – but what does it mean ?
As the latest conservative judge to declare herself a constitutional “ originalist ” during confirmation hearings , Barrett could influence what kinds of arguments hold sway on the court for years to come – and what cases the court hears in the first place .
It has been rare over the course of American history for a particular brand of judicial philosophy to gain such prominence that it catches the public eye .
A torrent of judicial appointments by Donald Trump over the last @ @ @ @ @ @ @ supreme court nominees espousing “ originalism ” , has pushed the term into the political discourse .
Barrett defined the term for the Senate .
“ So in English , that means that I interpret the constitution as a law , that I interpret its text as text and I understand it to have the meaning that it had at the time people ratified it , ” she said .
“ So that meaning doesn ’ t change over time .
And it ’ s not up to me to update it or @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” Aziz Huq , a professor of law at the University of Chicago , said that there is a thriving academic debate about the merits of originalism that is only “ loosely connected ” with the current political discourse , in which the term is often used on the right as a philosophical fig leaf for a conservative political agenda .
“ The political discourse of originalism is closely aligned with the policy preferences of the Republican party that has promoted judges who happen to take this perspective , ” Huq said .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ is moving outside politics , but it is – in its origins , and in the way that it has been applied in the courts – it is tightly linked to a particular partisan political orientation.
” Elected officials and others who have noticed that 86 % of Trump ’ s judicial appointees are white and 75 % are men have begun to hear something else in the term : a nostalgic appeal to the exclusive hold on power by white men at the time the constitution was written – a sense reinforced @ @ @ @ @ @ @ refusal to disavow white supremacy .

Maanvi Singh , Lauren Aratani, Joan E Greve, Martin Belam and Tom McCarthy

27 Oct 2020 05.12 GMT Summary The Senate confirmed Amy Coney Barrett to the supreme court. Lawmakers voted along party lines, with Republican Susan Collins of Maine joining united Democrats to vote against Barrett’s confirmation. Barrett, 48, secured a 6-to-3 conservative majority on the nation’s highest court.
Lawmakers voted along party lines, with Republican Susan Collins of Maine joining united Democrats to vote against Barrett’s confirmation. Barrett, 48, secured a 6-to-3 conservative majority on the nation’s highest court. Donald Trump held a celebratory swearing-in ceremony at the White House later tonight. Weeks ago, a White House event celebrating Barrett’s nomination in the Rose Garden has been linked to a coronavirus outbreak that infected Trump and several other aides, lawmakers and campaign staff. This time, most attendees wore masks and kept social distance.
Weeks ago, a White House event celebrating Barrett’s nomination in the Rose Garden has been linked to a coronavirus outbreak that infected Trump and several other aides, lawmakers and campaign staff. This time, most attendees wore masks and kept social distance. Right before the Senate voted on Barrett’s confirmation, the supreme court – short one justice - sided with Republicans to prevent Wisconsin from counting mail-in ballots received after election day. In a 5-3 ruling, the justices on Monday refused to reinstate a lower court order that called for mailed ballots to be counted if they are received up to six days after the 3 November election. A federal appeals court had already put that order on hold.
to prevent Wisconsin from counting mail-in ballots received after election day. In a 5-3 ruling, the justices on Monday refused to reinstate a lower court order that called for mailed ballots to be counted if they are received up to six days after the 3 November election. A federal appeals court had already put that order on hold. The US markets closed sharply down, in apparent response to the surge in coronavirus cases and the dwindling chances of a deal being reached on a relief bill before Election Day.
in apparent response to the surge in coronavirus cases and the dwindling chances of a deal being reached on a relief bill before Election Day. Dr Anthony Fauci said the US is still in its first wave of coronavirus infections, as cases surge in dozens of states. “I look at it more as an elongated — and an exacerbation of — the original first wave,” Fauci told Yahoo Finance today. The US set a single-day record for new cases over the weekend, reporting more than 83,000 cases on Friday.
as cases surge in dozens of states. “I look at it more as an elongated — and an exacerbation of — the original first wave,” Fauci told Yahoo Finance today. The US set a single-day record for new cases over the weekend, reporting more than 83,000 cases on Friday. Joe Biden said Barrett’s “rushed and unprecedented” confirmation “should be a stark reminder to every American that your vote matters.” The former vice president, drew a contrast between his campaign events and the big rallies Trump has been holding, saying he is “not putting on super spreaders.”
My colleague Tom McCarthy will continue to bring you live updates. Follow along with our new blog here: Amy Coney Barrett confirmed as Democrats warn of affront to democracy – live Read more
27 Oct 2020 04.33 GMT Julian Borger The Republican party has become dramatically more illiberal in the past two decades and now more closely resembles ruling parties in autocratic societies than its former center-right equivalents in Europe, according to a new international study. In a significant shift since 2000, the GOP has taken to demonizing and encouraging violence against its opponents, adopting attitudes and tactics comparable to ruling nationalist parties in Hungary, India, Poland and Turkey. The shift has both led to and been driven by the rise of Donald Trump. By contrast the Democratic party has changed little in its attachment to democratic norms, and in that regard has remained similar to center-right and center-left parties in western Europe. Their principal difference is the approach to the economy. The new study, the largest ever of its kind, was carried out by the V-Dem Institute at the University of Gothenburg in Sweden, using newly developed methods to measure and quantify the health of the world’s democracies at a time when authoritarianism is on the rise. Republicans closely resemble autocratic parties in Hungary and Turkey – study Read more
27 Oct 2020 04.00 GMT Biden recently said if he’s elected president, he would appoint a special commission to study the US court system and make recommendations to reform it. Amid the Republican rush to appoint Barrett ahead of an election they have a good chance of losing up and down the ballot, many Democrats have urged Biden to commit to adding justices to the court to restore balance between liberals and moderates on the bench. In an interview with 60 Minutes, Biden said “there’s a number of alternatives that go well beyond ‘packing’” the court. “The last thing we need to do is turn the supreme court into just a political football, [that means] whoever has the most votes gets whatever they want,” Biden said. “Presidents come and go. Supreme court justices stay for generations.” The constitution does not specify how many justices there should be on the supreme court, leaving that to Congress to decide. The number of justices has expanded and contracted several times over the years.
Updated at 04.24 GMT
27 Oct 2020 03.54 GMT Joe Biden has issued a statement on the confirmation of Amy Coney Barrett to the supreme court, saying that the “rushed and unprecedented” proceedings “should be a stark reminder to every American that your vote matters.” The rushed and unprecedented confirmation of Amy Coney Barrett as Associate Justice to the Supreme Court, in the middle of an ongoing election, should be a stark reminder to every American that your vote matters. https://t.co/NwEi4jyMd1 — Joe Biden (@JoeBiden) October 27, 2020 The Democratic nominee said: Just a few days after Election Day next week, the Supreme Court will hear the case on the Affordable Care Act. While panicked and erratic in mishandling the pandemic, Donald Trump has been crystal clear on one thing — for the past four years, and again just last night on 60 Minutes — he wants to tear down the Affordable Care Act in its entirety and take away your health care and protections for pre-existing conditions. This goal — the goal of the Republican Party for ten years — was a litmus test in selecting this nominee, regardless of the damage done to the U.S. Senate, to Americans’ faith in the legitimacy of the Supreme Court, and to our democracy, and regardless of how the Affordable Care Act has protected hundreds of millions of people before and during the pandemic. But we will not give up. If you want to protect your health care, if you want your voice to be heard in Washington, if you want to say no, this abuse of power doesn’t represent you — then turn out and vote.
Updated at 04.33 GMT
27 Oct 2020 03.48 GMT In Philadelphia, protesters took to the streets after police killed Walter Wallace Jr, a 27-year-old Black man. Police with shields and riot gear attempted to disband a crowd gathered near the police district headquarters. The Philadelphia Inquirer reporter Anna Orso captured a video of officers pushing back at the crowd after some people threw bottles. with a group of dozens still in west Philly, about a block from precinct. Police with shields pushed back crowds as ppl threw bottles pic.twitter.com/wRMEBUGNri — Anna Orso (@anna_orso) October 27, 2020 Walter Wallace Sr told the Inquirer that his son appeared to have been shot 10 times. From the Inquirer: “Why didn’t they use a Taser?” Wallace Sr asked outside a family residence on the block. “His mother was trying to defuse the situation.” Wallace Sr said his son struggled with mental health issues and was on medication. “He has mental issues. Why you have to gun him down?” Read more here.
Updated at 04.26 GMT
27 Oct 2020 03.20 GMT As my colleague Sam Levine has spotted, justice Brett Kavanaugh’s justification in today’s supreme court ruling that blocked a deadline extension to count absentee ballots in Wisconsin doesn’t totally add up. Kavanaugh cites Vermont as an example of a state that “decided not to make changes to their ordinary election rules” due to the pandemic, even though, in fact, the state authorized the secretary of state to automatically mail a ballot to all registered voters this year, in order to make it easier for everyone to vote absentee. Mailing every voter a ballot by 10/1 factored into our decision to stick with an election day receipt deadline instead of postmark. We also authorized ballot processing 30 days out. Those are our VT specific solutions, but other states needs are different. Count. Every. Vote. — Vermont Secretary of State’s Office (@VermontSOS) October 27, 2020 “Mailing every voter a ballot by 10/1 factored into our decision to stick with an election day receipt deadline,” the Vermont secretary of state’s office said.
27 Oct 2020 02.53 GMT Emily Holden Amy Coney Barrett’s addition to the court could leave an indelible mark on how fiercely the US, and perhaps the rest of the world, can fight rising temperatures, even as scientists warn society has just years to take serious action. Barrett, a 48-year-old devout Catholic, has said she does not hold “firm views” on climate change, calling it a “very contentious matter of public debate”. Because her father worked in oil and gas, she has previously recused herself from cases involving Royal Dutch Shell. From deciding the legality of climate regulations for polluters to determining whether oil companies should pay for climate damages, Barrett and five other conservative justices will wield considerable influence. While Barrett’s history of decisions on environmental issues is limited, her appointment to the court by Trump – as his third justice in four years – solidifies a transfer of power from an often progressive or moderate court. “Adding one more conservative justice just gives all the conservative justices more fuel to be more political in what they’re going to do,” said Jean Su, an attorney who directs the energy justice program for the Center for Biological Diversity. Why Amy Coney Barrett's addition to supreme court may undermine climate fight Read more
27 Oct 2020 02.36 GMT Tom McCarthy Prominently sidelined, now, is Chief Justice John Roberts, whose institutionalist instincts led him to cast crossover votes to prevent the dismantling of the Affordable Care Act, to preserve a program protecting young immigrant arrivals and to uphold, on the grounds of precedent, the basic protections conferred by Roe v Wade. It is no longer Roberts’ court, analysts say, because the chief justice has been shuffled to the bottom of the conservative deck, which now stacks high enough on the court, with the arrival of Barrett, to dispatch whatever rulings it pleases on issues from environmental regulations to reproductive rights to voting rights. “She will help to dramatically flip the balance on the court,” said Nan Aron, president of the progressive Alliance for Justice advocacy group, of Barrett. “It will be certain now that the right has captured the federal judiciary, at the supreme court level, and that they are seeking to advance a dangerous agenda.” Every issue of importance to progressive activists, starting with the basic right of every American to vote and extending to the need for regulations that protect employees from dangerous working conditions and consumers from predatory lenders, is on the chopping block with Barrett on the court, analysts say.
The court has recently issued rulings about the status of immigrants, the protection of LGBTQ+ people under anti-discrimination statutes, the ability of a president to come under criminal investigation, and the right to an abortion that could be overturned or subsumed in a churn of cases tailored by conservative activists to appeal to the new bench lineup. Progressive totems on the chopping block as US supreme court veers right Read more
27 Oct 2020 02.19 GMT Tom McCarthy Amy Coney Barrett is a constitutional ‘originalist’ – but what does it mean? As the latest conservative judge to declare herself a constitutional “originalist” during confirmation hearings, Barrett could influence what kinds of arguments hold sway on the court for years to come – and what cases the court hears in the first place.
It has been rare over the course of American history for a particular brand of judicial philosophy to gain such prominence that it catches the public eye. A torrent of judicial appointments by Donald Trump over the last four years, however, including three supreme court nominees espousing “originalism”, has pushed the term into the political discourse. Barrett defined the term for the Senate. “So in English, that means that I interpret the constitution as a law, that I interpret its text as text and I understand it to have the meaning that it had at the time people ratified it,” she said. “So that meaning doesn’t change over time. And it’s not up to me to update it or infuse my own policy views into it.” Aziz Huq, a professor of law at the University of Chicago, said that there is a thriving academic debate about the merits of originalism that is only “loosely connected” with the current political discourse, in which the term is often used on the right as a philosophical fig leaf for a conservative political agenda. “The political discourse of originalism is closely aligned with the policy preferences of the Republican party that has promoted judges who happen to take this perspective,” Huq said. “It purports to be something that is moving outside politics, but it is – in its origins, and in the way that it has been applied in the courts – it is tightly linked to a particular partisan political orientation.” Elected officials and others who have noticed that 86% of Trump’s judicial appointees are white and 75% are men have begun to hear something else in the term: a nostalgic appeal to the exclusive hold on power by white men at the time the constitution was written – a sense reinforced by the president’s repeated personal refusal to disavow white supremacy.
Amy Coney Barrett is a constitutional ‘originalist’ – but what does it mean? Read more


theguardian--2020-10-26--Does mail-in voting lead to fraud – and does it help Democrats? The facts

The 2020 presidential election is already unlike any other America has ever seen .
So far , 61 million people have voted early – either to avoid long lines or Covid-19 exposure during an unprecedented year , according to US Elections Project data from University of Florida professor Michael McDonald .
A week before election day , Americans have already surpassed 2016 early voting totals .
But perhaps even more striking than turnout along is that almost 87 million people requested mail-in ballots , and more than 21 million people have already returned them .
This includes millions in key @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ProPublica have been tracking .
These numbers come after Donald Trump and other Republicans spent the last months falsely claiming vote by mail will lead to fraud .
Since then they have sought to curb mail-in ballot deadlines in battleground states like Pennsylvania and North Carolina , and limit the number of drop boxes for people to safely drop off their mail-in ballot amid postal service delays .
Because of the surge in mail-in voting , which can take days to count , Americans are unlikely to know the results of the election @ @ @ @ @ @ @ already concern Trump will use the period of uncertainty to claim he won before ballot totals are final .
But is voting by mail really a threat to the election ?
We tried to answer some questions .
What is mail-in voting and why is it such a big deal this year ?
Mail-in voting describes the process voters can use to cast their ballots without having to appear in person at a polling place .
Every state allows voters to cast a vote by mail in some form , though the rules @ @ @ @ @ @ @ vary widely from state to state .
With the exception of a few states , voters are required to submit an application and then , once election officials verify their eligibility , receive a ballot .
A handful of states – including Washington , Oregon and Colorado – automatically mail all eligible voters a ballot .
This practice is often called universal mail-in voting .
About a quarter of all of the votes 2016 and 2018 were cast by mail , according to federal data .
But that number is growing this year @ @ @ @ @ @ @ amid Covid-19 .
McDonald , the professor at the University of Florida who closely tracks voter turnout , estimates mail-in votes will account for about 50 % this year .
And during the primaries this year , election officials in many states saw an unprecedented surge in the use of mail-in ballots .
In Georgia , for example , more than 1.1 million people voted by mail in the state ’ s June primary , more than four times the state ’ s previous record of 219,731 in 2018 .
That surge is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ states can handle the election .
Many places are not accustomed to seeing high volumes of mail-in ballots and election offices – already on shoestring budgets and staffed by just a few employees – have been struggling to keep up with the demand .
Congress has allocated just $ 400m of the $ 4bn the Brennan Center for Justice estimates states need to successfully run elections .
Is mail-in voting different from absentee voting ?
No , the two terms are often used interchangeably .
Traditionally , people who requested ballots were called @ @ @ @ @ @ @ were likely to be absent from their polling place on election day , according to the National Conference of State Legislatures ( NCSL ) .
There are instances of absentee voting for military members going back to the American revolution , but as mail-in voting has become more widespread among the general public over the last 30 years , the terminology has become more flexible and states refer to the practice as both absentee and mail-in voting .
Regardless of the term , the process is the same : a voter submits a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ official sends them one once they verify they are eligible .
Donald Trump and the White House have repeatedly tried to make a false distinction between “ absentee ” and “ mail-in ” ballots .
Trump has argued that “ absentee ” ballots , which he uses , are acceptable because a voter needs an excuse ( such as illness or military duty ) to use them while “ mail-in ” ballots will lead to fraud and are problematic .
But 34 states do not require a voter to give an excuse if @ @ @ @ @ @ @ incidents of fraud are still extremely rare .
Overall , 76 % of Americans – 158 million voters – are currently eligible to vote by mail without having to provide an excuse .
If more people are voting by mail why are there still long lines ?
One big lesson from the primaries this year was that a lot of voters still are going to come out and vote in person .
We ’ re seeing that during in-person early voting this year as well .
That may be for a number of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ballot that doesn ’ t arrive by election day or they might just prefer to cast a ballot in person .
There ’ s also a swell of new voters casting ballots this year who didn ’ t vote in 2016 .
Figuring out how to accommodate in-person voters has emerged as a major challenge for election administrators .
Poll workers tend to skew older and many have dropped out this year because over fears of contracting Covid-19 .
Facilities like schools and nursing homes that would ordinarily be polling sites may also @ @ @ @ @ @ @ public this year .
That has forced election officials to drastically scale back availability for in-person voting – in Milwaukee , for example , the city opened just five locations during the April primary , compared with the usual 180 ( the city was able to open many more polling locations for its August primary ) .
Figuring out how states can provide adequate and safe in-person voting has been one of the greatest challenges election administrators are facing this year .
Some places have gotten creative ; some professional sports teams are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to leave more space for distancing .
Will mail-in voting hurt Trump ’ s chances of being re-elected ?
There ’ s no evidence that mail-in voting benefits either Democrats or Republicans .
One study by Stanford researchers found that vote by mail does not benefit one party over the other .
So far , Democrats seem to have the edge when it comes to mail-in votes , in part because Trump warned his supporters not to use the system , but Republicans are not far behind .
In some places , Republicans @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of their strategy to drive voter turnout .
“ It was a staple of our strategy , ” said Mac Stipanovich , a retired Florida Republican political operative , told the Guardian in April .
“ Republicans probably ought not to be complaining about it.
” Republicans in some key states , including Florida and Pennsylvania have encouraged their voters to cast mail-in ballots in recent months .
Trump ’ s opposition to vote by mail appears to be framed by a belief that increased voting will hurt Republicans .
Discussing a congressional @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in March , Trump said : “ They had things , levels of voting , that if you ’ d ever agreed to it , you ’ d never have a Republican elected in this country again.
” But does Trump have a point that mail-in voting could lead to more fraud ?
Voter fraud is extremely rare and when it does occur , it is isolated .
The same is true when it comes to voting by mail ; an analysis of voter fraud cases maintained by the Heritage Foundation , a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ criminal convictions involving absentee ballots over the last 20 years .
That amounts to 0.00006 % of total votes cast .
A Washington Post analysis in states that conduct their elections entirely by mail found little evidence of fraud .
Election officials use several measures to prevent fraud .
Some states allow voters to track their ballots , ensuring they can verify when it arrives at the board of elections .
Election officials also compare the signatures on an absentee ballot envelope to verify a voter ’ s identity .
Trump has repeatedly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ New Jersey , earlier this year where four people have been indicted on fraud charges to bolster his claims , but those are misleading ; he has claimed that 19 % of the ballots were rejected because of fraud , but ballots can be rejected if a voter makes even a minor error in filling out the envelope it comes in .
What are the mail-in voting rules states are fighting over ?
One of the biggest disputes over the last few months has been over how easy it should be to send @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Nevada , Vermont , New Jersey and the District of Columbia have all moved this year to automatically mail ballots to eligible voters .
Other states have opted to mail absentee ballot applications to all voters .
In some places , local election officials chose to mail absentee ballot applications to voters , even if the state has opted not to .
The Trump campaign and Republican National Committee staunchly opposed these efforts , falsely saying they will lead to widespread fraud .
Democrats and voting rights groups also brought a slew of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ including requirements that voters provide an excuse if they want to vote absentee or get their ballot signed by a witness or notary .
They argued these laws overly burden voters in the middle of a pandemic .
More recently there have been battles over mail-in ballot deadlines : some states have extended the date by which ballots can be counted , as long as they are postmarked by election day .
But Republicans in states like North Carolina and Michigan have sought to block the extensions .
There have also been fights @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , with states like Ohio and Texas limiting voters to one drop box a county .
Civil rights groups have called these voter suppression tactics .
Finally , there have been court disputes about the technicalities that could lead to mail-in ballots being rejected .
In Pennsylvania , for example , the state supreme court ruled last weekend that ballots can not be rejected if a voter ’ s signature does not match a previous ballot signature .
Similarly in North Carolina the board of elections circulated a memo instructing election officials not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have a witness signature after thousands of ballots had been flagged for rejection .
How can I be sure my mail-in vote will count ?
Many states allow voters to track their absentee ballots , allowing voters to see when their ballots are received and counted .
There are also high-stakes legal battles over the processes states use to reject absentee ballots .
A mail-in ballot can be rejected if election officials – who may not be trained in handwriting analysis – determine the signature on the ballot envelope doesn ’ t match @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ballot arrives after election day , regardless of when the voter put it in the mail .
Research has shown that minorities , young and first-time voters are all more likely to have their mail-in ballots rejected .
Most recently , it was found that Black voters were more likely to have their ballots rejected in North Carolina than other groups .
Democrats have brought a number of legal challenges to require states to count ballots as long as they are postmarked by election day and arrive in the days after and to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ reject a ballot .
Some have been successful .
Are we going to know who won the presidential election on election night ?
Barring a landslide election result , it is very unlikely that we are going to know who won the presidential election on 3 November .
There is probably going to be an influx of ballots that come in either on election day or in the days after , and it will probably take election officials at least a few days to continue to verify , open and count those ballots @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Michigan and Wisconsin , election officials are barred from beginning to count ballots until election day , which could lead to further delays .
There ’ s nothing fishy about this – it takes time to count mail-in ballots and election officials want to be careful they get the results right .
But Trump has already laid the groundwork for contesting the results of the election , stoking fears about the integrity of mail-in ballots and suggesting the election could be stolen from him .
There is deep concern about what will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ those ballots are being counted .
If Trump voters overwhelmingly go to the polls in person , he may hold a lead on election night , only to see it disappear as mail-in votes are counted .
The Trump campaign and Republican National Committee are reportedly preparing for a “ weeks-long ” legal fight after the election and readying efforts to get absentee ballots rejected if they lack postmarks .

The 2020 presidential election is already unlike any other America has ever seen.
So far, 61 million people have voted early – either to avoid long lines or Covid-19 exposure during an unprecedented year, according to US Elections Project data from University of Florida professor Michael McDonald. A week before election day, Americans have already surpassed 2016 early voting totals.
But perhaps even more striking than turnout along is that almost 87 million people requested mail-in ballots, and more than 21 million people have already returned them. This includes millions in key swing states, which the Guardian and ProPublica have been tracking.
These numbers come after Donald Trump and other Republicans spent the last months falsely claiming vote by mail will lead to fraud. Since then they have sought to curb mail-in ballot deadlines in battleground states like Pennsylvania and North Carolina, and limit the number of drop boxes for people to safely drop off their mail-in ballot amid postal service delays.
Because of the surge in mail-in voting, which can take days to count, Americans are unlikely to know the results of the election on 3 November. And there is already concern Trump will use the period of uncertainty to claim he won before ballot totals are final. But is voting by mail really a threat to the election? We tried to answer some questions.
What is mail-in voting and why is it such a big deal this year?
Mail-in voting describes the process voters can use to cast their ballots without having to appear in person at a polling place. Every state allows voters to cast a vote by mail in some form, though the rules around who is eligible to do so vary widely from state to state.
With the exception of a few states, voters are required to submit an application and then, once election officials verify their eligibility, receive a ballot. A handful of states – including Washington, Oregon and Colorado – automatically mail all eligible voters a ballot. This practice is often called universal mail-in voting.
About a quarter of all of the votes 2016 and 2018 were cast by mail, according to federal data. But that number is growing this year because of concerns about voting in person amid Covid-19. McDonald, the professor at the University of Florida who closely tracks voter turnout, estimates mail-in votes will account for about 50% this year. And during the primaries this year, election officials in many states saw an unprecedented surge in the use of mail-in ballots. In Georgia, for example, more than 1.1 million people voted by mail in the state’s June primary, more than four times the state’s previous record of 219,731 in 2018.
That surge is prompting a host of concerns about whether states can handle the election . Many places are not accustomed to seeing high volumes of mail-in ballots and election offices – already on shoestring budgets and staffed by just a few employees – have been struggling to keep up with the demand. Congress has allocated just $400m of the $4bn the Brennan Center for Justice estimates states need to successfully run elections.
05:32 Voter suppression: how Trump is undermining the US election – video explainer
Is mail-in voting different from absentee voting?
No, the two terms are often used interchangeably. Traditionally, people who requested ballots were called “absentee voters”, because they were likely to be absent from their polling place on election day, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures (NCSL).
There are instances of absentee voting for military members going back to the American revolution, but as mail-in voting has become more widespread among the general public over the last 30 years, the terminology has become more flexible and states refer to the practice as both absentee and mail-in voting. Regardless of the term, the process is the same: a voter submits a request for a ballot and the election official sends them one once they verify they are eligible.
Donald Trump and the White House have repeatedly tried to make a false distinction between “absentee” and “mail-in” ballots. Trump has argued that “absentee” ballots, which he uses, are acceptable because a voter needs an excuse (such as illness or military duty) to use them while “mail-in” ballots will lead to fraud and are problematic. But 34 states do not require a voter to give an excuse if they want to vote by mail and incidents of fraud are still extremely rare.
Overall, 76% of Americans – 158 million voters – are currently eligible to vote by mail without having to provide an excuse.
If more people are voting by mail why are there still long lines?
One big lesson from the primaries this year was that a lot of voters still are going to come out and vote in person. We’re seeing that during in-person early voting this year as well. That may be for a number of reasons – a voter may request a ballot that doesn’t arrive by election day or they might just prefer to cast a ballot in person. There’s also a swell of new voters casting ballots this year who didn’t vote in 2016.
Figuring out how to accommodate in-person voters has emerged as a major challenge for election administrators. Poll workers tend to skew older and many have dropped out this year because over fears of contracting Covid-19. Facilities like schools and nursing homes that would ordinarily be polling sites may also be less willing to open to the public this year. That has forced election officials to drastically scale back availability for in-person voting – in Milwaukee, for example, the city opened just five locations during the April primary, compared with the usual 180 (the city was able to open many more polling locations for its August primary).
Figuring out how states can provide adequate and safe in-person voting has been one of the greatest challenges election administrators are facing this year. Some places have gotten creative; some professional sports teams are offering arenas and stadiums as polling sites to leave more space for distancing.
Will mail-in voting hurt Trump’s chances of being re-elected?
There’s no evidence that mail-in voting benefits either Democrats or Republicans. One study by Stanford researchers found that vote by mail does not benefit one party over the other. So far, Democrats seem to have the edge when it comes to mail-in votes, in part because Trump warned his supporters not to use the system, but Republicans are not far behind.
In some places, Republicans have long used mail-in voting as part of their strategy to drive voter turnout. “It was a staple of our strategy,” said Mac Stipanovich, a retired Florida Republican political operative, told the Guardian in April. “Republicans probably ought not to be complaining about it.” Republicans in some key states, including Florida and Pennsylvania have encouraged their voters to cast mail-in ballots in recent months.
Trump’s opposition to vote by mail appears to be framed by a belief that increased voting will hurt Republicans. Discussing a congressional proposal to make it easier to vote in March, Trump said: “They had things, levels of voting, that if you’d ever agreed to it, you’d never have a Republican elected in this country again.”
But does Trump have a point that mail-in voting could lead to more fraud?
Voter fraud is extremely rare and when it does occur, it is isolated. The same is true when it comes to voting by mail; an analysis of voter fraud cases maintained by the Heritage Foundation, a conservative thinktank, found 143 cases of criminal convictions involving absentee ballots over the last 20 years. That amounts to 0.00006% of total votes cast. A Washington Post analysis in states that conduct their elections entirely by mail found little evidence of fraud.
Election officials use several measures to prevent fraud. Some states allow voters to track their ballots, ensuring they can verify when it arrives at the board of elections. Election officials also compare the signatures on an absentee ballot envelope to verify a voter’s identity.
Trump has repeatedly pointed to an election in Paterson, New Jersey, earlier this year where four people have been indicted on fraud charges to bolster his claims, but those are misleading; he has claimed that 19% of the ballots were rejected because of fraud, but ballots can be rejected if a voter makes even a minor error in filling out the envelope it comes in.
What are the mail-in voting rules states are fighting over?
One of the biggest disputes over the last few months has been over how easy it should be to send someone a mail-in ballot. California, Nevada, Vermont, New Jersey and the District of Columbia have all moved this year to automatically mail ballots to eligible voters. Other states have opted to mail absentee ballot applications to all voters. In some places, local election officials chose to mail absentee ballot applications to voters, even if the state has opted not to. The Trump campaign and Republican National Committee staunchly opposed these efforts, falsely saying they will lead to widespread fraud.
Democrats and voting rights groups also brought a slew of lawsuits challenging restrictions around absentee voting, including requirements that voters provide an excuse if they want to vote absentee or get their ballot signed by a witness or notary. They argued these laws overly burden voters in the middle of a pandemic.
More recently there have been battles over mail-in ballot deadlines: some states have extended the date by which ballots can be counted, as long as they are postmarked by election day. But Republicans in states like North Carolina and Michigan have sought to block the extensions.
There have also been fights over the drop boxes for mail-in ballots, with states like Ohio and Texas limiting voters to one drop box a county. Civil rights groups have called these voter suppression tactics.
Finally, there have been court disputes about the technicalities that could lead to mail-in ballots being rejected. In Pennsylvania, for example, the state supreme court ruled last weekend that ballots cannot be rejected if a voter’s signature does not match a previous ballot signature. Similarly in North Carolina the board of elections circulated a memo instructing election officials not to reject ballots that didn’t have a witness signature after thousands of ballots had been flagged for rejection.
How can I be sure my mail-in vote will count?
Many states allow voters to track their absentee ballots, allowing voters to see when their ballots are received and counted.
There are also high-stakes legal battles over the processes states use to reject absentee ballots. A mail-in ballot can be rejected if election officials – who may not be trained in handwriting analysis – determine the signature on the ballot envelope doesn’t match the one on file or if the ballot arrives after election day, regardless of when the voter put it in the mail. Research has shown that minorities, young and first-time voters are all more likely to have their mail-in ballots rejected. Most recently, it was found that Black voters were more likely to have their ballots rejected in North Carolina than other groups.
Democrats have brought a number of legal challenges to require states to count ballots as long as they are postmarked by election day and arrive in the days after and to notify voters of any deficiencies before they reject a ballot. Some have been successful.
Are we going to know who won the presidential election on election night?
Barring a landslide election result, it is very unlikely that we are going to know who won the presidential election on 3 November. There is probably going to be an influx of ballots that come in either on election day or in the days after, and it will probably take election officials at least a few days to continue to verify, open and count those ballots. In some states, including Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, election officials are barred from beginning to count ballots until election day, which could lead to further delays.
There’s nothing fishy about this – it takes time to count mail-in ballots and election officials want to be careful they get the results right. But Trump has already laid the groundwork for contesting the results of the election, stoking fears about the integrity of mail-in ballots and suggesting the election could be stolen from him.
There is deep concern about what will happen during the period of uncertainty while those ballots are being counted. If Trump voters overwhelmingly go to the polls in person, he may hold a lead on election night, only to see it disappear as mail-in votes are counted. The Trump campaign and Republican National Committee are reportedly preparing for a “weeks-long” legal fight after the election and readying efforts to get absentee ballots rejected if they lack postmarks.


theguardian--2020-10-26--Joy to the Polls: the group performing for Americans as they line up to vote

As hundreds of people queued to vote early in Philadelphia this weekend , a group of performers had a special tactic to keep people ’ s spirits up .
A collective of artists and activists have being performing on line while people wait to cast their ballots , hoping to bring a little joy to an election season which looks to be rife with voter suppression , intimidation tactics and long waiting times .
And so far , it has been well received .
A video of performers doing the cha-cha at a middle school in south-west Philadelphia slide has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Ava DuVernay , Wanda Sykes and Sarah Cooper .
The non-partisan group Joy to the Polls pointed out that in a year when a global pandemic and rising racial tensions may put people off voting , it ’ s more important than ever to encourage people to come out to vote .
“ We have rampant voter suppression in the US , ” says Nelini Stamp , an organizer and performer for Joy to the Polls .
“ We wanted to figure out a way so while people are outside of the polling @ @ @ @ @ @ @ feeling of safety and a feeling of joy , ” she said .
Stamp mentions negative stories which have the potential to put people off voting this year – from armed militias standing outside polling booths , to poll worker shortages , to fears about standing in line for hours alongside strangers during a pandemic to cast a ballot .
“ It [ all ] could scare people from voting .
So our approach is to try and focus on the positive , to ask ourselves , how can we be as positive @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ?
” To do that , they have been working with artists who will be performing outside voting locations across the country on election day .
As well as raising resources for artists hard hit by the pandemic , they will also be on hand with personal protective equipment , water and music .
“ On election day there will be two , three , four-hour lines .
So we want there to be an act that comes around and performs for 20 minutes , and gives the voters something to look forward @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to the Polls has also partnered with the Election Defenders to train people in de-escalation tactics , so that voters feel safe from any intimidation .
Dancing is just one way of doing that : “ Music serves as a great de-escalator because it sets the tone , ” explains Stamp .
“ It was super beautiful !
There were even some poll workers who came out with us when their shifts were done to get down on with us.
” It ’ s some much-needed joy in an election season that has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ Some people are like , ‘ Oh it ’ s just a long line who cares , ’ but that ’ s not the case at all , ” says Stamp , telling a story of an elderly woman who waited standing up for over an hour with her cane on the weekend .
“ People should not have to wait in long lines just to exercise a fundamental right , ” she says .
But despite all of that , Joy to the Polls is keen to keep the focus on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s understandable why people feel a lack of hope , or a lack of agency right now .
But we are just trying to say , you know what ?
If we can make people feel good for 30 minutes in a two , three , or four-hour line , if we can help people show face and motivate more people to go out and vote ?
That is all worth it at the end of the day .
”

As hundreds of people queued to vote early in Philadelphia this weekend, a group of performers had a special tactic to keep people’s spirits up.
A collective of artists and activists have being performing on line while people wait to cast their ballots, hoping to bring a little joy to an election season which looks to be rife with voter suppression, intimidation tactics and long waiting times.
And so far, it has been well received. A video of performers doing the cha-cha at a middle school in south-west Philadelphia slide has been drawing praise from the likes of Ava DuVernay, Wanda Sykes and Sarah Cooper.
I love us so much. We rise. Always. https://t.co/bEySCGf2hr — Ava DuVernay (@ava) October 25, 2020
The non-partisan group Joy to the Polls pointed out that in a year when a global pandemic and rising racial tensions may put people off voting, it’s more important than ever to encourage people to come out to vote.
“We have rampant voter suppression in the US,” says Nelini Stamp, an organizer and performer for Joy to the Polls. “We wanted to figure out a way so while people are outside of the polling station, we can bring them a feeling of safety and a feeling of joy,” she said.
Stamp mentions negative stories which have the potential to put people off voting this year – from armed militias standing outside polling booths, to poll worker shortages, to fears about standing in line for hours alongside strangers during a pandemic to cast a ballot.
“It [all] could scare people from voting. So our approach is to try and focus on the positive, to ask ourselves, how can we be as positive as possible within a really scary situation?”
To do that, they have been working with artists who will be performing outside voting locations across the country on election day. As well as raising resources for artists hard hit by the pandemic, they will also be on hand with personal protective equipment, water and music.
“On election day there will be two, three, four-hour lines. So we want there to be an act that comes around and performs for 20 minutes, and gives the voters something to look forward to,” explains Stamp.
Joy to the Polls has also partnered with the Election Defenders to train people in de-escalation tactics, so that voters feel safe from any intimidation. Dancing is just one way of doing that: “Music serves as a great de-escalator because it sets the tone,” explains Stamp. “It was super beautiful! There were even some poll workers who came out with us when their shifts were done to get down on with us.”
It’s some much-needed joy in an election season that has so far been fraught with tension.
“Some people are like, ‘Oh it’s just a long line who cares,’ but that’s not the case at all,” says Stamp, telling a story of an elderly woman who waited standing up for over an hour with her cane on the weekend. “People should not have to wait in long lines just to exercise a fundamental right,” she says.
But despite all of that, Joy to the Polls is keen to keep the focus on voting, not fear.
“It’s understandable why people feel a lack of hope, or a lack of agency right now. But we are just trying to say, you know what? If we can make people feel good for 30 minutes in a two, three, or four-hour line, if we can help people show face and motivate more people to go out and vote? That is all worth it at the end of the day.”


theguardian--2020-10-27--Amy Coney Barrett takes oath after being confirmed to US supreme court – video

A majority of US senators have voted to confirm Donald Trump ’ s supreme court nominee Amy Coney Barrett .
@ @ @ @ @ yays are 52 .
The nays are 48 , ' announced US senator Chuck Grassley @ @ @ @ @ celebratory swearing-in ceremony on the White House lawn .
Barrett said . '
I will @ @ @ @ @ fear or favour and ...
I will do so independently of both the political branches @ @ @ @ @ . '
Lawmakers voted along party lines , although Republican Susan Collins of Maine joined @ @ @ @ @ ’ s confirmation .
Barrett , 48 , will secure a 6-to-3 conservative majority on @ @ @ @ @ court .
Long term , her appointment could have a major impact on a range @ @ @ @ @ , immigration and LGBTQ+ rights • Amy Coney Barrett confirmed to supreme court in major @ @ @ @ @ live

A majority of US senators have voted to confirm Donald Trump’s supreme court nominee Amy Coney Barrett. 'On this vote, the yays are 52. The nays are 48,' announced US senator Chuck Grassley. Trump then held a celebratory swearing-in ceremony on the White House lawn. Barrett said. 'I will do my job without any fear or favour and ... I will do so independently of both the political branches and of my own preferences.' Lawmakers voted along party lines, although Republican Susan Collins of Maine joined Democrats to vote against Barrett’s confirmation. Barrett, 48, will secure a 6-to-3 conservative majority on the nation’s highest court. Long term, her appointment could have a major impact on a range of policies governing abortion rights, immigration and LGBTQ+ rights