theguardian--2020-09-25--Could Republicans ignore the popular vote and choose their own pro-Trump electors?

Donald Trump escalated his efforts to undermine the 2020 election this week .
Republicans are reportedly considering the possibility of asking state legislatures to ignore the will of the popular vote and appoint electors favorable to the president .
Trump also declined to say whether he would accept a peaceful transfer of power this week , comments that many Republicans distanced themselves from .
Trump said he needs to place a new supreme court justice in place to resolve election disputes .
The US constitution gives state legislatures the authority to appoint the 538 electors to the electoral college who @ @ @ @ @ @ @ long used the winner of the popular vote to determine who gets the electoral votes in their states , but Republicans anonymously told the Atlantic the campaign has discussed the possibility of using delays in the vote count as a basis to ask Republican-controlled legislatures to appoint their own electors , regardless of the final vote tally .
“ The state legislatures will say , ‘ All right , we ’ ve been given this constitutional power .
We don ’ t think the results of our own state are accurate , so @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that we think properly reflect the results of our state , ’ ” a Trump campaign legal adviser told the Atlantic .
A Trump campaign spokesperson said the report in the Atlantic was not true .
“ The Atlantic story is false and ridiculous .
The types of contingency plans included in the story are impossible , ” the spokesperson said .
“ States have laws that determine how electors are selected .
Especially if we ’ re looking at states that could have mail ballot problems ( eg Pennsylvania , Michigan ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sign a bill repealing those laws.
” Experts cast doubt on the feasibility of such an effort .
“ It ’ s the ultimate nightmare scenario for the country .
There ’ s no reason to think there would be any appropriate basis for doing this .
It ’ s not at all clear that the legal power to do it even exists , ” said Richard Pildes , a law professor at New York University .
“ There ’ s a delicate line in talking about and educating people about all sorts @ @ @ @ @ @ @ creating unwarranted anxiety about what is likely to be a relatively well-functioning election process.
” Such a scenario is unlikely , Richard Hasen , a law professor and election expert at the University of California , Irvine tweeted Thursday .
He noted he did not see a way in which lawmakers could legally change the manner in which they chose electors after people started voting .
Several battleground states , including Michigan , Pennsylvania , and Wisconsin , also Democratic governors who could serve as a check on the legislature .
It ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ serious the Republican effort is .
Joseph Kyzer , a spokesman for North Carolina speaker Tim Moore , said it wasn ’ t something being discussed among lawmakers .
Andrew Hitt , the chairman of the Wisconsin Republican party , also told the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel Wednesday it wasn ’ t something that was being discussed .
Because of a surge in mail-in balloting , election officials are likely to continue counting votes after the polls close on 3 November .
There ’ s nothing unusual about that kind of delay , but experts @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to claim victory if vote tallies show him ahead on election night .
There is a push to prepare the public to understand such a wait is normal to gird against claims of fraud .
“ Unnecessarily sowing doubt and confusion in voters mind can alienate some voters from even participating at all and can fuel anxieties that put people on a razor ’ s edge , ” Pildes said .

Donald Trump escalated his efforts to undermine the 2020 election this week.
Republicans are reportedly considering the possibility of asking state legislatures to ignore the will of the popular vote and appoint electors favorable to the president. Trump also declined to say whether he would accept a peaceful transfer of power this week, comments that many Republicans distanced themselves from. Trump said he needs to put a new supreme court justice in place to resolve election disputes.
The US constitution gives state legislatures the authority to appoint the 538 electors to the electoral college who ultimately elect the president. States have long used the winner of the popular vote to determine who gets the electoral votes in their states, but Republicans anonymously told the Atlantic the campaign has discussed the possibility of using delays in the vote count as a basis to ask Republican-controlled legislatures to appoint their own electors, regardless of the final vote tally.
“The state legislatures will say, ‘All right, we’ve been given this constitutional power. We don’t think the results of our own state are accurate, so here’s our slate of electors that we think properly reflect the results of our state,’ ” a Trump campaign legal adviser told the Atlantic.
A Trump campaign spokesperson said the report in the Atlantic was not true.
“The Atlantic story is false and ridiculous. The types of contingency plans included in the story are impossible,” the spokesperson said. “States have laws that determine how electors are selected. Especially if we’re looking at states that could have mail ballot problems (eg Pennsylvania, Michigan), no Democrat governor is going to sign a bill repealing those laws.”
Experts cast doubt on the feasibility of such an effort.
“It’s the ultimate nightmare scenario for the country. There’s no reason to think there would be any appropriate basis for doing this. It’s not at all clear that the legal power to do it even exists,” said Richard Pildes, a law professor at New York University. “There’s a delicate line in talking about and educating people about all sorts of potential scenarios that could emerge and creating unwarranted anxiety about what is likely to be a relatively well-functioning election process.”
Such a scenario is unlikely, Richard Hasen, a law professor and election expert at the University of California, Irvine tweeted Thursday. He noted he did not see a way lawmakers could legally change the manner in which they chose electors after people started voting. Several battleground states, including Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, also have Democratic governors who could serve as a check on the legislature.
It’s also not clear how widespread or serious the Republican effort is. Joseph Kyzer, a spokesman for the North Carolina speaker, Tim Moore, said it wasn’t something being discussed among lawmakers. Andrew Hitt, the chairman of the Wisconsin Republican party, also told the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel Wednesday it wasn’t something that was being discussed.
Because of a surge in mail-in balloting, election officials are likely to continue counting votes after the polls close on 3 November. There is nothing unusual about that kind of delay, but experts are increasingly worried Trump could use it to claim victory if vote tallies show him ahead on election night. There is a push to prepare the public to understand such a wait is normal to gird against claims of fraud.
“Unnecessarily sowing doubt and confusion in voters’ mind can alienate some voters from even participating at all and can fuel anxieties that put people on a razor’s edge,” Pildes said.


theguardian--2020-09-25--'His abuses have escalated': Barr's kinship with Trump fuels election fears

Donald Trump ’ s astonishing suggestion at a campaign rally last weekend that the US president will deploy government lawyers to try to hit the brakes on the counting of ballots on election night relies on the complicity of one federal official more than any other .
That official is attorney general William Barr , who , as leader of the justice department , directs the army of government lawyers who would sue to halt the counting of votes .
Conveniently for Trump ’ s stated plan , Barr appears not only ready to acquiesce , he seems eager to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for challenging the election with weeks of misleading statements about the integrity of mail-in voting .
To some observers , the attorney general appears to have also laid the groundwork for a further alarming step , one that would answer the question of what action the Trump administration is prepared to take if a contested election in November gives rise to large new protests .
In order for Trump to steal the election and then quell mass demonstrations – for that is the nature of the nightmare scenario now up for open discussion @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , thinktankers and a lot of other people – Trump must be able to manipulate both the levers of the law and its physical enforcement .
In Barr , Trump not only gets all of that , critics say , but he also enjoys the partnership of a man whose sense of biblical stakes around the election imbues him with a deep sense of mission about re-electing Trump .
In a break with the relative reticence of his first 18 month in office , Barr has laid out his own thinking with a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ internal discussions .
Even routine critics of Barr have been struck by the Barr that has now revealed himself .
The erstwhile mild-mannered Washington lawyer has been spouting attacks on election integrity and hostility toward street protests while describing , in explicitly religious terms , an epochal showdown between the forces of “ moral discipline and virtue ” – which he believes he represents – and “ individual rapacity ” manifesting as social chaos , embodied by leftwing protesters among others .
“ His abuses have only escalated as we have gotten closer @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as the president has felt more and more politically vulnerable , ” said Donald K Sherman , deputy director of the Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington watchdog group , which has called for Barr ’ s impeachment .
“ I can ’ t put it more plainly than this : the attorney general is a threat to American citizens having free and fair access to the vote , and is a threat to American having their votes counted.
” In recent weeks , Barr has reportedly asked prosecutors to weigh charging @ @ @ @ @ @ @ punish conspiracies to overthrow the government , and to weigh criminal charges against the Seattle mayor for allowing residents to establish a small “ police-free ” protest zone .
He has designated New York City , Portland and Seattle as “ anarchy ” zones that he says “ have refused to undertake reasonable measures to counteract criminal activities , ” threatening federal funding .
Such designations cleanly feed Trump ’ s re-election narrative of public safety under threat .
They also reflect a constitutionally questionable , and normally non-conservative , eagerness on Barr @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of federal government into local law enforcement .
Barr has demonstrated this tendency before .
In June , he took the highly unusual step , as attorney general , of personally directing federal officers to use crowd suppression tactics to eject peaceful protesters from Lafayette Square near the White House .
Barr later denied giving any direct orders , but the White House stated flatly : “ It was AG Barr who made the decision.
” Meanwhile Barr has competed with Trump to erode faith in the upcoming election , peddling baseless conspiracy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , spreading tales about mass mail-in ballot fraud – in a lie that was later retracted by the justice department – and expressing frustration that the United States uses mail-in voting and multi-day voting , which are common measures to accommodate voters going back decades .
“ We ’ re losing the whole idea of what an election is , ” Barr complained in an appearance earlier this month at Hillsdale College in Michigan .
Neil Kinkopf , a Georgia State law professor who worked in the Office of Legal Counsel under Bill @ @ @ @ @ @ @ solicitousness for Trump ’ s political wellbeing was historic .
“ I think this attorney general is demonstrably more committed to the political success of the president , and the president ’ s political agenda than any attorney general in history I can think of , ” Kinkopf said .
What drives Barr ?
For political observers familiar with Barr ’ s long Washington career , which included an earlier stint as attorney general under George HW Bush , the notion that he could help lead American democracy off a cliff might provoke @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Republicans and everyday voters who have enabled Trump , Barr does not appear to be motivated by personal loyalty to Trump per se , but by a sense of Trump ’ s role in a greater plan .
Before his appointment by Trump , many insiders saw Barr as a committed institutionalist who would protect the independence of the justice department from Trump ’ s most damaging tendencies , though Barr clearly was a strong believer in a muscular presidency .
But others saw Barr coming .
They include Kinkopf , who testified @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s January 2019 confirmation hearing .
In his testimony , Kinkopf warned about Barr ’ s subscription to so-called unitary executive theory , which lays out an “ alarming ” and “ dangerously mistaken ” view of “ an executive power of breathtaking scope , subject to negligible limits , ” Kinkopf said .
“ It appears that , if confirmed , William Barr will establish precedents that adopt an enduring vision of presidential power ; one that in future administrations can be deployed to justify the exercise of power for very @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the time .
But today even Kinkopf says he is “ deeply surprised ” by the extent to which Barr has surpassed that warning .
“ When I testified against him , I recognized how dangerous the unitary executive theory is , ” Kinkopf said .
“ But what I didn ’ t appreciate , and I don ’ t think anybody appreciated , was just how fully he would deploy that theory in advance not of rule-of law values , but in order to advance both the president ’ s political agenda @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Barr , his own social and religious commitments.
” Those commitments , in turn , are a matter of public record , including in a speech Barr delivered at Notre Dame University about one year ago .
In the speech , Barr described a political philosophy driven by the need to counter an “ individual rapacity ” in humans that quickly produces “ licentiousness ” and the destruction of “ healthy community life ” if not restrained .
The only possible restraint , in Barr ’ s view , are “ moral values @ @ @ @ @ @ @ independent of men ’ s will – they must flow from a transcendent Supreme Being.
” In short , Barr argued , as he has elsewhere , that the inevitable result of secularism is moral decay and social chaos .
It appears that it is just such chaos that Barr sees in the current street protests driven by the ant-racism Black Lives Matter movement .
He has denounced the protesters in his Michigan speech as “ these so-called Black Lives matter people ” and claiming they were “ not interested in black lives @ @ @ @ @ @ @ using ] props—a small number of blacks who are killed by police ... to achieve a much broader political agenda.
” If Barr gives shockingly short shrift to the motivations of protesters haunted by the recurring specter of police killings of people of color , he holds his own motivations in high esteem .
Barr appears to see himself locked in a historic struggle against literal evil , and he appears to regard the upcoming election as the climactic battle .
A Trump loss , Barr recently told a Chicago Tribune columnist , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ irrevocably committed to the socialist path.
” He called the election “ a clear fork in the road ” .
“ The attorney general sees himself clearly as fighting culture wars that are to him moral and religious , ” Kinkopf said .
“ And those are deeper I think commitments for him than the commitment to federalism .
And so to the extent that the balance of federal and state power gets in the way of achieving what he wants to achieve in the culture wars , he ’ s willing to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ there weren ’ t a culture war angle on it , I think he would take the position that states and local governments should be left to police their own communities , and the federal government should keep its nose out .
But because he sees something at stake in the current protests that jeopardizes what he feels as being the proper order of society , he ’ s not troubled about using federal power to pursue what he views as being the right results .
”

Donald Trump’s astonishing suggestion at a campaign rally last weekend that the US president will deploy government lawyers to try to hit the brakes on the counting of ballots on election night relies on the complicity of one federal official more than any other.
That official is the attorney general, William Barr, who, as the leader of the justice department, directs the army of government lawyers who would sue to halt the counting of votes.
Conveniently for Trump’s stated plan, Barr appears not only ready to acquiesce, he seems eager to bring the lawsuits, having laid groundwork for challenging the election with weeks of misleading statements about the integrity of mail-in voting.
To some observers, the attorney general appears to have also laid the groundwork for a further alarming step, one that would answer the question of what action the Trump administration is prepared to take if a contested election in November gives rise to large new protests.
In order for Trump to steal the election and then quell mass demonstrations – for that is the nature of the nightmare scenario now up for open discussion among current and former officials, academics, thinktankers and a lot of other people – Trump must be able to manipulate both the levers of the law and its physical enforcement.
In Barr, Trump not only gets all of that, critics say, but he also enjoys the partnership of a man whose sense of biblical stakes around the election imbues him with a deep sense of mission about re-electing Trump.
In a break with the relative reticence of his first 18 month in office, Barr has laid out his own thinking with a series of recent speeches, interviews and internal discussions. Even routine critics of Barr have been struck by the Barr that has now revealed himself.
The erstwhile mild-mannered Washington lawyer has been spouting attacks on election integrity and hostility toward street protests while describing, in explicitly religious terms, an epochal showdown between the forces of “moral discipline and virtue” – which he believes he represents – and “individual rapacity” manifesting as social chaos, embodied by leftwing protesters among others.
“His abuses have only escalated as we have gotten closer and closer to the election, and as the president has felt more and more politically vulnerable,” said Donald K Sherman, the deputy director of the Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington watchdog group, which has called for Barr’s impeachment.
“I can’t put it more plainly than this: the attorney general is a threat to American citizens having free and fair access to the vote, and is a threat to American having their votes counted.”
In recent weeks, Barr has reportedly asked prosecutors to weigh charging protesters under sedition laws, meant to punish conspiracies to overthrow the government, and to weigh criminal charges against the Seattle mayor for allowing residents to establish a small “police-free” protest zone. He has designated New York City, Portland and Seattle as “anarchy” zones that he says “have refused to undertake reasonable measures to counteract criminal activities”, threatening federal funding.
Barr with Ivanka Trump on Monday at a meeting in Atlanta on human trafficking. Photograph: Elijah Nouvelage/Reuters
Such designations cleanly feed Trump’s re-election narrative of public safety under threat. They also reflect a constitutionally questionable, and normally non-conservative, eagerness on Barr’s part to reach the arm of federal government into local law enforcement.
Barr has demonstrated this tendency before. In June, he took the highly unusual step, as attorney general, of personally directing federal officers to use crowd suppression tactics to eject peaceful protesters from Lafayette Square near the White House.
Barr later denied giving any direct orders, but the White House stated flatly: “It was AG Barr who made the decision.”
Meanwhile Barr has competed with Trump to erode faith in the upcoming election, peddling baseless conspiracy theories about foreign nations printing counterfeit ballots, spreading tales about mass mail-in ballot fraud – in a lie that was later retracted by the justice department – and expressing frustration that the United States uses mail-in voting and multi-day voting, which are common measures to accommodate voters going back decades.
“We’re losing the whole idea of what an election is,” Barr complained in an appearance earlier this month at Hillsdale College in Michigan.
Neil Kinkopf, a Georgia State law professor who worked in the Office of Legal Counsel under Bill Clinton, said that Barr’s solicitousness for Trump’s political wellbeing was historic.
“I think this attorney general is demonstrably more committed to the political success of the president, and the president’s political agenda than any attorney general in history I can think of,” Kinkopf said.
What drives Barr? For political observers familiar with Barr’s long Washington career, which included an earlier stint as the attorney general under George HW Bush, the notion that he could help lead American democracy off a cliff might provoke some cognitive dissonance. Like other powerful Republicans and everyday voters who have enabled Trump, Barr does not appear to be motivated by personal loyalty to Trump per se, but by a sense of Trump’s role in a greater plan.
Before his appointment by Trump, many insiders saw Barr as a committed institutionalist who would protect the independence of the justice department from Trump’s most damaging tendencies, though Barr clearly was a strong believer in a muscular presidency.
But others saw Barr coming. They include Kinkopf, who testified against Barr before the Senate at Barr’s January 2019 confirmation hearing. In his testimony, Kinkopf warned about Barr’s subscription to so-called unitary executive theory, which lays out an “alarming” and “dangerously mistaken” view of “an executive power of breathtaking scope, subject to negligible limits”, Kinkopf said.
The attorney general sees himself clearly as fighting culture wars that are to him moral and religious Neil Kinkopf
“It appears that, if confirmed, William Barr will establish precedents that adopt an enduring vision of presidential power; one that in future administrations can be deployed to justify the exercise of power for very different ends,” Kinkopf warned at the time.
But today even Kinkopf says he is “deeply surprised” by the extent to which Barr has surpassed that warning.
“When I testified against him, I recognized how dangerous the unitary executive theory is,” Kinkopf said. “But what I didn’t appreciate, and I don’t think anybody appreciated, was just how fully he would deploy that theory in advance not of rule-of law values, but in order to advance both the president’s political agenda, and I think more deeply for Barr, his own social and religious commitments.”
Those commitments, in turn, are a matter of public record, including in a speech Barr delivered at the University of Notre Dame about one year ago. In the speech, Barr described a political philosophy driven by the need to counter an “individual rapacity” in humans that quickly produces “licentiousness” and the destruction of “healthy community life” if not restrained. The only possible restraint, in Barr’s view, are “moral values [that] must rest on authority independent of men’s will – they must flow from a transcendent Supreme Being.”
In short, Barr argued, as he has elsewhere, that the inevitable result of secularism is moral decay and social chaos.
It appears that it is just such chaos that Barr sees in the current street protests driven by the ant-racism Black Lives Matter movement. He has denounced the protesters in his Michigan speech as “these so-called Black Lives Matter people” and claiming they were “not interested in black lives. They’re interested in [using] props – a small number of blacks who are killed by police… to achieve a much broader political agenda.”
If Barr gives shockingly short shrift to the motivations of protesters haunted by the recurring specter of police killings of people of color, he holds his own motivations in high esteem.
Barr appears to see himself locked in a historic struggle against literal evil, and he appears to regard the upcoming election as the climactic battle. A Trump loss, Barr recently told a Chicago Tribune columnist, would mean the United States was “irrevocably committed to the socialist path”. He called the election “a clear fork in the road”.
“The attorney general sees himself clearly as fighting culture wars that are to him moral and religious,” Kinkopf said. “And those are deeper I think commitments for him than the commitment to federalism. And so to the extent that the balance of federal and state power gets in the way of achieving what he wants to achieve in the culture wars, he’s willing to cast that aside.
“So if there weren’t a culture war angle on it, I think he would take the position that states and local governments should be left to police their own communities, and the federal government should keep its nose out. But because he sees something at stake in the current protests that jeopardizes what he feels as being the proper order of society, he’s not troubled about using federal power to pursue what he views as being the right results.”


theguardian--2020-09-25--Trump makes 'law-and-order' pitch but rhetoric on crime at variance with reality

In the empty gym of a community center in Brownsville , Brooklyn , a small group of local residents in hunter green polo shirts and jackets read out some numbers .
“ Three days , no shootings .
Three hundred and 10 days , no killings.
” And on it went , around the room .
In this part of New York City , a day without a gun death isn ’ t taken for granted .
Brownsville and its surrounding neighborhoods have long been plagued by gang violence , gun deaths and police brutality .
And like most other @ @ @ @ @ @ @ statistics , especially homicides and assaults , have been increasing this summer – with murder up by 50 % in the city this year , the highest it ’ s been since 2014 .
Those sitting in the gym that day , a community anti-violence street team with the non-profit ManUp Inc , know this intimately .
They spend their days meeting with people in their catchment areas , meeting neighbors and trying to mediate conflict .
But they said what they experience every day feels far removed from the narrative being espoused @ @ @ @ @ @ @ recent weeks has blamed every issue of increasing violence on Democratic leadership and protests against police brutality .
This week , his justice department even released a list of cities it deemed “ anarchist jurisdictions ” – a list which includes New York , Portland and Seattle .
As many experts have pointed out , these claims are baseless : big American cities are largely run by Democrats , with only few under Republican leadership , making comparisons almost impossible , and the increase in crime has hit Republican areas too .
Meanwhile @ @ @ @ @ @ @ protests have been peaceful .
But Trump ’ s “ law-and-order ” narrative is now successfully deepening political fissures in the country , without addressing the actual issue of community violence at time of a pandemic which has cost 200,000 American lives , an economic collapse that has killed millions of jobs and widespread civic unrest .
“ Folks have been losing a lot – jobs , housing , their loved ones , ” said AT Mitchell , the founder of ManUp .
“ You ’ re going to see a lot of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Dems .
But we ’ ve been unable to properly grieve.
” Crime in US cities has been steadily trending down in recent decades , even with prevalent mass shootings and gun violence .
This year , however , is an anomaly .
At the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic , as cities such as New York and Chicago went under various types of lockdown , certain types of crime – murder and burglary – dropped precipitously .
Then , as the summer started , things changed .
“ What we ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lot of communities under significant stress related to Covid and the economy .
Stress causes violence to get worse , ” said Charles Ransford , the director of policy and science at Cure Violence , an international anti-violence organization which has been credited with driving down gun violence in Chicago by more than 30 % in 2008 by treating is as a disease .
In a report of 27 large cities in the US , researchers found that aggravated assault rose by 35 % , homicides by 37 % , and commercial burglaries @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and June , and then a quick drop right after .
This applied to Democrat- and Republican-led cities , such as Jacksonville , Florida , Fort Worth , Texas , and Lexington , Kentucky .
Richard Rosenfeld , the lead author of the report , said the pandemic was at the center of the increase in violence .
The virus has affected every segment of society , he said , including police forces , many of which have changed the way they carry out their work because of social distancing or quarantine .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ the public , you will get some increase in crime , ” he said .
That goes for red and blue cities alike , which Rosenfeld said utilize law enforcement largely the same way .
But there are also some more reliable criminological factors that apply even outside a pandemic year .
For one , homicide rates almost almost go up during the summer , and this summer had the added phenomena of people leaving their homes after being cooped up for months .
“ There ’ s no refuge , there ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ people are stuck at home , said Shnequa “ Coco ” Purvis , one of the community outreach workers with ManUp , whose sister was killed by a stray bullet in her Bed-Stuy neighborhood some years ago .
She blamed “ boredom and isolation ” for the violence in her own community , adding that some people living in unstable home situations , or with abusive family members .
Crime almost always increases when more people are interacting , which happens when the weather warms up , or when more people are together @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bars , and , this year , the hundreds of protests that broke out after George Floyd was killed by police in Minneapolis .
“ In the past patterns in crime , when you have people interacting more , especially those communities more prone to acting out aggressively , you will get more crime , ” said Sherry Towers , a statistician who studies and computes criminological data .
But Towers emphasized that there was no political difference in the cities experiencing more crime for these reasons .
In fact , she said @ @ @ @ @ @ @ most dangerous , such as Chicago , don ’ t hold up when the data is broken down per capita .
“ All of these cities that are painted as needing the national guard – they aren ’ t in the top 10 [ most dangerous ] by far , ” she said .
“ When you look at the most dangerous , you ’ re seeing a mix of cities that are blue and also red.
” Towers cited Memphis , Kansas City and Indianapolis as examples .
The surging misinformation around @ @ @ @ @ @ @ an important part of the debate around law and order this summer .
Towers and Rosenfeld pointed out that the “ George Floyd ” effect of protests in cities likely led to more violence there .
But not because the protests themselves were violent or because , as Republicans have speculated , that police can not do their jobs amid the civil unrest .
In fact , the same conversation happened after the protests in Ferguson , Missouri in 2014 , when Michael Brown was shot by police .
Many speculated that an @ @ @ @ @ @ @ few hundred miles away , after the Ferguson protests was because activists and citizens had obstructed the police department or because more people felt free to loot or vandalize .
Later , criminologists found the real reason .
“ There was no merit in that , ” Towers said .
“ But around the same time guns were flying off the shelves .
And even if people had no intent of using those guns for crime , these guns end up on the black market.
” This year saw a similar surge in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pandemic .
And while criminologists don ’ t yet know the impact of those sales , Rosenfeld characterized them as a “ major contributor ” to this year ’ s crime .
“ The more firearms there are circulating in a population , the easier it is for someone to get their hands on a gun that shouldn ’ t have one , ” he said .
The George Floyd effect , instead , is simply that more people are interacting as a whole .
And as Towers had pointed out , more @ @ @ @ @ @ @ said the calls for defunding the police – the same calls that the Trump administration blames for “ anarchy ” in cities like Portland – play a role in the violence as well , but not because of cutting budgets .
In Black communities that have a historically poor relationship with law enforcement , the protests have highlighted old wounds and led people to take matters into their own hands more often .
“ What you get in some communities is an even greater alienation between members and the local police department , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ creates a void – and a void can be filled by street justice.
” Police departments across the country have also changed their behavior in light of the protests .
As ProPublica found , some departments , including the New York Police Department pulled back after the protests , either to avoid scrutiny , or to intentionally underpolice .
That can further fracture the relationship with a community if done without cooperation , but it doesn ’ t always cause a steep increase in crime .
“ It ’ s obvious that the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ public outcry and their response has been slower , lax and they don ’ t seem to rush to aid , ” said Mitchell , whose organization is based in the same neighborhood where he grew up .
But Mitchell also sees room for building out the Cure Violence model through organization in that absence .
“ I ’ m a very strong advocate of community empowerment .
We had to step up our presence , ” he said .
Meanwhile , Rosenfeld said the cities that invest more in police reform are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ longterm .
“ The idea is that if people have confidence and trust in the police , then the police be effective and fair , ” he said .
“ The main argument is one of strengthening the accountability of police for misconduct .
“ The other is seriously thinking what it is we need or want , and if other agencies could handle some of the policing better.
” As Coco Purvis got ready for her shift after the meeting in the gym , she said the phrases “ violent , anarchist @ @ @ @ @ @ @ police ” meant little to her .
She said she and most of her neighbors “ want Trump out ” .
But what matters to her , she said , was the set of numbers she said in the group briefing .
How many of her neighbors had been shot ?
How many had been lost ?
“ It made me focus on the real , ” she said .
“ Life , it ’ s not about revenge , it ’ s about coming together as a community and fixing where we @ @ @ @ @ @ @ her 28-year-old sister , and the son she left behind , that Purvis raised as her own , keep her committed .
Because in the pandemic , she said it ’ s clearer than ever that her community can be easily separated , isolated and torn apart if people like her don ’ t act .
“ My life and my story coincide with what happens and what ’ s going on right now , ” she said .
“ It all fits together .
”

In the empty gym of a community center in Brownsville, Brooklyn, a small group of local residents in hunter green polo shirts and jackets read out some numbers.
“Sixty-four days, no shootings. Nineteen days, no killings.”
“Three days, no shootings. Three hundred and 10 days, no killings.”
And on it went, around the room.
In this part of New York City, a day without a gun death isn’t taken for granted. Brownsville and its surrounding neighborhoods have long been plagued by gang violence, gun deaths and police brutality. And like most other cities in the country, some crime statistics, especially homicides and assaults, have been increasing this summer – with murder up by 50% in the city this year, the highest it’s been since 2014.
Those sitting in the gym that day, a community anti-violence street team with the non-profit ManUp Inc, know this intimately. They spend their days meeting with people in their catchment areas, meeting neighbors and trying to mediate conflict.
But they said what they experience every day feels far removed from the narrative being espoused by Donald Trump, who, in recent weeks has blamed every issue of increasing violence on Democratic leadership and protests against police brutality. This week, his justice department even released a list of cities it deemed “anarchist jurisdictions” – a list which includes New York, Portland and Seattle.
As many experts have pointed out, these claims are baseless: big American cities are largely run by Democrats, with only few under Republican leadership, making comparisons almost impossible, and the increase in crime has hit Republican areas too. Meanwhile, the large majority of the anti-racism protests have been peaceful.
But Trump’s “law-and-order” narrative is now successfully deepening political fissures in the country, without addressing the actual issue of community violence at time of a pandemic which has cost 200,000 American lives, an economic collapse that has killed millions of jobs and widespread civic unrest.
“Folks have been losing a lot – jobs, housing, their loved ones,” said AT Mitchell, the founder of ManUp. “You’re going to see a lot of rhetoric and hype between the GOP and the Dems. But we’ve been unable to properly grieve.”
Crime in US cities has been steadily trending down in recent decades, even with prevalent mass shootings and gun violence. This year, however, is an anomaly. At the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic, as cities such as New York and Chicago went under various types of lockdown, certain types of crime – murder and burglary – dropped precipitously.
A worker grasps a piece of wood for a project in a church in Brownsville. Photograph: Stephanie Keith/Getty Images
Then, as the summer started, things changed.
“What we’re seeing in the US is a lot of communities under significant stress related to Covid and the economy. Stress causes violence to get worse,” said Charles Ransford, the director of policy and science at Cure Violence, an international anti-violence organization which has been credited with driving down gun violence in Chicago by more than 30% in 2008 by treating is as a disease.
In a report of 27 large cities in the US, researchers found that aggravated assault rose by 35%, homicides by 37%, and commercial burglaries saw a 200% spike in May and June, and then a quick drop right after. This applied to Democrat- and Republican-led cities, such as Jacksonville, Florida, Fort Worth, Texas, and Lexington, Kentucky.
Richard Rosenfeld, the lead author of the report, said the pandemic was at the center of the increase in violence. The virus has affected every segment of society, he said, including police forces, many of which have changed the way they carry out their work because of social distancing or quarantine. “If you reduce police contact with the public, you will get some increase in crime,” he said. That goes for red and blue cities alike, which Rosenfeld said utilize law enforcement largely the same way.
But there are also some more reliable criminological factors that apply even outside a pandemic year. For one, homicide rates almost almost go up during the summer, and this summer had the added phenomena of people leaving their homes after being cooped up for months.
“There’s no refuge, there’s no way out,” when people are stuck at home, said Shnequa “Coco” Purvis, one of the community outreach workers with ManUp, whose sister was killed by a stray bullet in her Bed-Stuy neighborhood some years ago. She blamed “boredom and isolation” for the violence in her own community, adding that some people living in unstable home situations, or with abusive family members.
Shnequa “Coco” Purvis, whose sister died of gun violence. Photograph: Ankita Rao
Crime almost always increases when more people are interacting, which happens when the weather warms up, or when more people are together at gatherings such concerts, parades, bars, and, this year, the hundreds of protests that broke out after George Floyd was killed by police in Minneapolis.
“In the past patterns in crime, when you have people interacting more, especially those communities more prone to acting out aggressively, you will get more crime,” said Sherry Towers, a statistician who studies and computes criminological data.
But Towers emphasized that there was no political difference in the cities experiencing more crime for these reasons. In fact, she said, the cities often thought of as most dangerous, such as Chicago, don’t hold up when the data is broken down per capita.
“All of these cities that are painted as needing the national guard – they aren’t in the top 10 [most dangerous] by far,” she said. “When you look at the most dangerous, you’re seeing a mix of cities that are blue and also red.” Towers cited Memphis, Kansas City and Indianapolis as examples.
The surging misinformation around the relationship between protests and crime is an important part of the debate around law and order this summer.
Towers and Rosenfeld pointed out that the “George Floyd” effect of protests in cities likely led to more violence there. But not because the protests themselves were violent or because, as Republicans have speculated, that police cannot do their jobs amid the civil unrest.
In fact, the same conversation happened after the protests in Ferguson, Missouri in 2014, when Michael Brown was shot by police. Many speculated that an increase in crime in Chicago, a few hundred miles away, after the Ferguson protests was because activists and citizens had obstructed the police department or because more people felt free to loot or vandalize.
Later, criminologists found the real reason. “There was no merit in that,” Towers said. “But around the same time guns were flying off the shelves. And even if people had no intent of using those guns for crime, these guns end up on the black market.” This year saw a similar surge in firearm sales, starting early in the pandemic. And while criminologists don’t yet know the impact of those sales, Rosenfeld characterized them as a “major contributor” to this year’s crime.
“The more firearms there are circulating in a population, the easier it is for someone to get their hands on a gun that shouldn’t have one,” he said. The George Floyd effect, instead, is simply that more people are interacting as a whole. And as Towers had pointed out, more interaction leads to more crime.
Rosenfeld said the calls for defunding the police – the same calls that the Trump administration blames for “anarchy” in cities like Portland – play a role in the violence as well, but not because of cutting budgets. In Black communities that have a historically poor relationship with law enforcement, the protests have highlighted old wounds and led people to take matters into their own hands more often.
Police patrol officers in Brooklyn. Photograph: Demetrius Freeman/The Washington Post/Getty Images
“What you get in some communities is an even greater alienation between members and the local police department,” he said. “And that creates a void – and a void can be filled by street justice.”
Police departments across the country have also changed their behavior in light of the protests. As ProPublica found, some departments, including the New York Police Department pulled back after the protests, either to avoid scrutiny, or to intentionally underpolice. That can further fracture the relationship with a community if done without cooperation, but it doesn’t always cause a steep increase in crime.
“It’s obvious that the NYPD have taken a position against the public outcry and their response has been slower, lax and they don’t seem to rush to aid,” said Mitchell, whose organization is based in the same neighborhood where he grew up. But Mitchell also sees room for building out the Cure Violence model through organization in that absence. “I’m a very strong advocate of community empowerment. We had to step up our presence,” he said.
Meanwhile, Rosenfeld said the cities that invest more in police reform are more likely to see drops in crime longterm. “The idea is that if people have confidence and trust in the police, then the police be effective and fair,” he said. “The main argument is one of strengthening the accountability of police for misconduct.
“The other is seriously thinking what it is we need or want, and if other agencies could handle some of the policing better.”
As Coco Purvis got ready for her shift after the meeting in the gym, she said the phrases “violent, anarchist Democratic cities” and “defund the police” meant little to her. She said she and most of her neighbors “want Trump out”. But what matters to her, she said, was the set of numbers she said in the group briefing. How many of her neighbors had been shot? How many had been lost?
“It made me focus on the real,” she said. “Life, it’s not about revenge, it’s about coming together as a community and fixing where we messed up.”
And the memory of her 28-year-old sister, and the son she left behind, that Purvis raised as her own, keep her committed. Because in the pandemic, she said it’s clearer than ever that her community can be easily separated, isolated and torn apart if people like her don’t act.
“My life and my story coincide with what happens and what’s going on right now,” she said. “It all fits together.”


theguardian--2020-09-25--Disaffected Black voters cost Clinton the election. Biden hasn't learned that lesson | Malaika Jabal

Disaffected Black voters cost Clinton the election. Biden hasn't learned that lesson | Malaika Jabali

Joe Biden has staked his presidential campaign on his ability to “ win back ” white working-class voters in midwest swing states like Michigan and Wisconsin .
But he has the wrong target .
In Manitowoc , Wisconsin , a city that ’ s 90 % white , Biden recently donned his populist hat , telling an audience : “ I ’ ve dealt with guys like Trump my whole life … Guys who inherit everything they ’ ve ever gotten in their life and squander it .
Guys who stretch and squeeze and stiff electricians and plumbers and contractors @ @ @ @ @ @ @ golf courses to put more bucks in their pocket.
” Prior to this campaign stop , Biden amplified an endorsement from the former Michigan governor Rick Snyder , the Republican official who – let ’ s not forget – oversaw and attempted to cover up the Flint water crisis , which exposed an estimated 140,000 people in the majority Black city to lead and other contaminants .
In an appearance in Michigan , Biden sat down with steelworkers , flanked mostly by white men , to discuss his jobs plan .
And prior @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Rittenhouse shot and killed two Black Lives Matter protesters in Kenosha , Wisconsin , Biden aired a Richard Nixon-style law and order ad attacking “ lawlessness ” and accusing Trump of sowing discord .
Biden and his advisers clearly believe that Hillary Clinton lost in 2016 because white voters in key swing states shifted from Obama to Trump .
Biden ’ s entire campaign strategy is built on that assumption .
There are two problems with that .
For one , it almost entirely ignores the Black working class .
For another , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ If you look closely at the data on Wisconsin and Michigan – two of the three swing states that secured Trump ’ s victory – it ’ s apparent that a significant decline in voter turnout for the Democratic candidate cost Democrats the 2016 election , not a shift to Trump .
White voter turnout in Wisconsin declined by 1 % , amounting to 100,000 people who chose not to vote for either candidate .
Trump only garnered 721 more votes than Mitt Romney , which could partly be explained by population increase @ @ @ @ @ @ @ votes cast for Clinton substantially exceeded the turnout for Donald Trump – from rural towns to medium-sized urban centers .
Black voter turnout declined by an even higher rate , to a level unprecedented in Wisconsin ’ s recorded history .
While 79 % of Black voters participated in the 2012 general election , only 47 % voted in 2016 – less than half the eligible voters .
This amounted to about 88,000 less votes than in 2012 .
The limited academic research on turnout in Wisconsin reveals that 42 % of nonvoters @ @ @ @ @ @ @ populous counties stayed home primarily because they disliked the candidates or weren ’ t interested in them .
Issues related to voter suppression amounted to about 5 % of the respondents ’ answers .
But instead of trying to win over the nearly 200,000 people who stayed home in Wisconsin in 2016 ( or whose votes were suppressed ) , Biden has opted to center his Wisconsin campaign on about 700 people , some of whom may have never voted for a Democrat for president .
Instead of focusing on the approximately 50,000 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ counties , Biden is touting the endorsement of Snyder , whose neglect threatened the wellbeing of thousands of Flint residents .
The Democratic party has embraced this message to a bizarre and troubling degree , often platforming Republicans who are barely popular with their own constituents .
The Democratic national convention , for example , featured a cameo from former Ohio governor John Kasich .
Yet Kasich averaged 18 % support from Republican voters in the 2016 race , the lowest of the frontrunners , while Trump garnered 46.5 % .
There has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ party from conservativism to an embrace of the far right , but Biden is banking on an unknown number of disaffected Republicans to help him into the White House , instead of hundreds of thousands of disaffected Democrats .
This centrist Democratic obsession with “ winning back ” white conservatives in rural towns and suburbs is more symbolic than strategic .
It ’ s rooted in a longstanding , mistaken archetype that conflates the working class with white workers , a tradition that reaches as far back as the 1800s Reconstruction Era .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ America , the sociologist WEB Du Bois noted that the mostly white , Northern labor union movement comprehended “ chiefly Northern skilled laborers , ” but “ almost none of them mentioned the Negro , or considered or welcomed him … said nothing of the greatest revolution in labor that had happened in America for a hundred years – the emancipation of slaves ” .
Black workers , even those emerging from centuries of brutal unpaid labor , barely registered in the mainstream consciousness at all .
Instead , we became the face @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ free stuff from the government ” , as if a federal government that has handed out trillions to corporations and financial institutions can not afford basic services such as healthcare , affordable housing and higher education for all of its people .
It seems like we haven ’ t moved much past that narrative .
Biden ’ s obsession with the white working class , for example , ignores that over half of Black men worked in Milwaukee ’ s manufacturing sector , more than double white workers , at the height @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
It ignores that deindustrialization hurt them more than anyone else .
It ignores that Black and Asian households throughout the country were heaviest hit by the Great Recession .
It ignores that a shift to lower-wage temporary warehouse work , and unemployment under Covid-19 , disproportionately affects Black and Latinos .
And it ignores that these material realities affect how they vote , too .
But instead of swinging to Republicans , millions stay home .
It ’ s in Biden ’ s political DNA to make these superficial white working-class appeals @ @ @ @ @ @ @ race .
But if he wants to unjustifiably fashion himself as this generation ’ s Franklin Delano Roosevelt , it ’ s best he not repeat the same mistakes of failing the party ’ s Black working-class base .
• None Malaika Jabali is a public policy attorney , activist and Guardian US columnist

Joe Biden has staked his presidential campaign on his ability to “win back” white working-class voters in midwest swing states like Michigan and Wisconsin. But he has the wrong target.
In Manitowoc, Wisconsin, a city that’s 90% white, Biden recently donned his populist hat, telling an audience: “I’ve dealt with guys like Trump my whole life … Guys who inherit everything they’ve ever gotten in their life and squander it. Guys who stretch and squeeze and stiff electricians and plumbers and contractors working on their hotels and casinos and golf courses to put more bucks in their pocket.”
Prior to this campaign stop, Biden amplified an endorsement from the former Michigan governor Rick Snyder, the Republican official who – let’s not forget – oversaw and attempted to cover up the Flint water crisis, which exposed an estimated 140,000 people in the majority Black city to lead and other contaminants. In an appearance in Michigan, Biden sat down with steelworkers, flanked mostly by white men, to discuss his jobs plan. And prior to that, after white vigilante Kyle Rittenhouse shot and killed two Black Lives Matter protesters in Kenosha, Wisconsin, Biden aired a Richard Nixon-style law and order ad attacking “lawlessness” and accusing Trump of sowing discord.
Biden and his advisers clearly believe that Hillary Clinton lost in 2016 because white voters in key swing states shifted from Obama to Trump. Biden’s entire campaign strategy is built on that assumption. There are two problems with that. For one, it almost entirely ignores the Black working class. For another, it may not even be true.
If you look closely at the data on Wisconsin and Michigan – two of the three swing states that secured Trump’s victory – it’s apparent that a significant decline in voter turnout for the Democratic candidate cost Democrats the 2016 election, not a shift to Trump.
White voter turnout in Wisconsin declined by 1%, amounting to 100,000 people who chose not to vote for either candidate. Trump only garnered 721 more votes than Mitt Romney, which could partly be explained by population increase. Across Wisconsin, the decline in votes cast for Clinton substantially exceeded the turnout for Donald Trump – from rural towns to medium-sized urban centers.
Black voter turnout declined by an even higher rate, to a level unprecedented in Wisconsin’s recorded history. While 79% of Black voters participated in the 2012 general election, only 47% voted in 2016 – less than half the eligible voters. This amounted to about 88,000 less votes than in 2012. The limited academic research on turnout in Wisconsin reveals that 42% of nonvoters in the state’s two most populous counties stayed home primarily because they disliked the candidates or weren’t interested in them. Issues related to voter suppression amounted to about 5% of the respondents’ answers.
But instead of trying to win over the nearly 200,000 people who stayed home in Wisconsin in 2016 (or whose votes were suppressed), Biden has opted to center his Wisconsin campaign on about 700 people, some of whom may have never voted for a Democrat for president. Instead of focusing on the approximately 50,000 voters who stayed home in Democratic-leaning Michigan counties, Biden is touting the endorsement of Snyder, whose neglect threatened the wellbeing of thousands of Flint residents.
The Democratic party has embraced this message to a bizarre and troubling degree, often platforming Republicans who are barely popular with their own constituents. The Democratic national convention, for example, featured a cameo from former Ohio governor John Kasich. Yet Kasich averaged 18% support from Republican voters in the 2016 race, the lowest of the frontrunners, while Trump garnered 46.5%. There has been a clear shift in the Republican party from conservativism to an embrace of the far right, but Biden is banking on an unknown number of disaffected Republicans to help him into the White House, instead of hundreds of thousands of disaffected Democrats.
This centrist Democratic obsession with “winning back” white conservatives in rural towns and suburbs is more symbolic than strategic. It’s rooted in a longstanding, mistaken archetype that conflates the working class with white workers, a tradition that reaches as far back as the 1800s Reconstruction Era.
In his seminal text Black Reconstruction in America, the sociologist WEB Du Bois noted that the mostly white, Northern labor union movement comprehended “chiefly Northern skilled laborers,” but “almost none of them mentioned the Negro, or considered or welcomed him … said nothing of the greatest revolution in labor that had happened in America for a hundred years – the emancipation of slaves”.
Black workers, even those emerging from centuries of brutal unpaid labor, barely registered in the mainstream consciousness at all. Instead, we became the face of the undeserving underclass, asking for “free stuff from the government”, as if a federal government that has handed out trillions to corporations and financial institutions cannot afford basic services such as healthcare, affordable housing and higher education for all of its people.
It seems like we haven’t moved much past that narrative. Biden’s obsession with the white working class, for example, ignores that over half of Black men worked in Milwaukee’s manufacturing sector, more than double white workers, at the height of the city’s heavy industry. It ignores that deindustrialization hurt them more than anyone else. It ignores that Black and Asian households throughout the country were heaviest hit by the Great Recession. It ignores that a shift to lower-wage temporary warehouse work, and unemployment under Covid-19, disproportionately affects Black and Latinos. And it ignores that these material realities affect how they vote, too. But instead of swinging to Republicans, millions stay home.
It’s in Biden’s political DNA to make these superficial white working-class appeals, despite undermining the working class across race. But if he wants to unjustifiably fashion himself as this generation’s Franklin Delano Roosevelt, it’s best he not repeat the same mistakes of failing the party’s Black working-class base.


theguardian--2020-09-26--Trump to nominate Amy Coney Barrett to supreme court, reports say – as it happened

The Republican ’ s order unleashed fresh debate in the politically divided state , where pandemic responses have become intertwined with the upcoming presidential election .
DeSantis acknowledged that the pandemic is far from over , but said the threat has eased .
“ We ’ re not closing anything going forward , ” DeSantis said , while insisting that the state is prepared if infections increase again .
The governor said he would stop cities and counties from collecting fines on people who don ’ t wear face masks .
“ As an act of executive grace , all @ @ @ @ @ @ @ against individuals are suspended , ” the governor said .
Democrats bemoaned the push to reopen as hasty .
“ No one is advocating for a full-scale lockdown in Florida .
But we have been and continue to ask for common sense prevention measures such as face masks , which are essential to preventing further spread , ” state senator Audrey Gibson said .
Florida has long been a Covid-19 hotspot , with nearly 700,000 infected .
Nearly 14,000 have died .
The governor reluctantly closed bars and nightclubs on St Patrick ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to take-out dining .
Amusement parks ground to a halt .
The closures battered the economy .
More than 2.5 million Floridians have sought unemployment benefits .
DeSantis has been under pressure to revive the economy – much of it dependent on tourism .
Like Trump , DeSantis has questioned the efficacy of closures , arguing that states that had more aggressively shut down , including California , have fared no better .
California has had more than 800,000 coronavirus cases and more than 15,000 deaths .
While California has suffered slightly more @ @ @ @ @ @ @ nearly twice that of Florida .
“ The state of Florida is probably the most open big state in the country , ” DeSantis boasted , nonetheless , on Friday .
New infections in Florida have steadily declined since a peak in July .
Florida added 2,847 confirmed cases on Friday , pushing its total to 695,887 .
The state also announced 120 new deaths , pushing its total to 14,038 .

Sam Levin (now),  Martin Pengelly, Joanna Walters, Joan E Greve and Martin Belam (earlier)

25 Sept 2020 00.42 BST US prosecutor publicly criticizes Bill Barr James D Herbert, a current assistant US attorney for the district of Massachusetts, has written a letter to the editor publicly criticizing Trump’s attorney general, Bill Barr: While I am a federal prosecutor, I am writing to express my own views, clearly not those of the department, on a matter that should concern all citizens: the unprecedented politicization of the office of the attorney general. The attorney general acts as though his job is to serve only the political interests of Donald J. Trump. This is a dangerous abuse of power. The letter appeared in the Boston Globe yesterday, but a reporter for ABC News has now confirmed it is authentic and that Herbert currently remains employed at the US attorney’s office: NEW: Sources familiar confirm to @ABC the authenticity of this letter from current AUSA James Herbert publicly speaking out against AG Barr. "The current attorney general has brought shame on the department he purports to lead." w/ @AaronKatersky pic.twitter.com/4jzDtk7Q0r — Alex Mallin (@alex_mallin) September 25, 2020
25 Sept 2020 00.37 BST Covid hospitalizations expected to rise in California, officials warn Gabrielle Canon Covid-19 hospitalizations are expected to jump 89% in California, officials said at a news conference today. Cases continue to hover around 3% over the past two weeks – a promising sign that new sectors could begin reopening. But Dr Mark Ghaly, who heads California’s health and human services department, told reporters that the numbers are creeping up, likely due to some lag-time after Labor Day celebrations. “We’re seeing more admissions than we did the day or week prior for Covid-19 in some of our hospital systems across the state,” he said. More than 800,000 people in California have gotten Covid-19 as of Friday and deaths from the disease topped 15,000 earlier in the week. Hospitals aren’t currently close to capacity though, and won’t be even with a spike in cases. Over the summer there were more than 7,000 people hospitalized with the virus at one point and current state predictions through October are under 5,000. California is expected to see an *89% increase in COVID-19 hospitalizations* over the next month as projected transmission rates in various regions have increased and ER visits have gone up over the past week throughout the statehttps://t.co/z3qr42Nc6a — Colleen Shalby (@CShalby) September 25, 2020 California officials are still moving forward with a plan to allow nail salons to reopen, and are allowing counties to govern their own reopening plans based on a tier system. Still, with flu season around the corner, Ghaly said they don’t want to take any chances. “We’ve never done Covid hospitalizations with flu hospitalizations,” he said. “We see things coming together that we want to make sure we’re very vigilant around, to ensure that even if we go up a little bit with our hospitalizations, we don’t continue to have high rates and even come close to the numbers that we saw over the summer.”
Updated at 01.39 BST
25 Sept 2020 00.05 BST Trump declines to comment on his supreme court pick Despite the flurry of news reports suggesting that the president will be nominating Amy Coney Barrett, Trump himself has declined to confirm his selection. He told reporters that he has made his decision, but said he would be withholding the news until 5pm EST on Saturday. He said it “could be anyone of them” and “they’re all outstanding”, referring to five women he has been considering. Asked explicitly about Barrett, he said, “I haven’t said it is her.” “They’re all great,” said Pres Trump about his Supreme Court pick. “Could be anyone of them,” he said, refusing to give a hint. “I haven’t said it is her,” asked about was Judge Amy Coney Barrett. “They’re all outstanding,” he said of the 5 women he was considering. pic.twitter.com/54NrCqmUxF — Mark Knoller (@markknoller) September 25, 2020
25 Sept 2020 23.18 BST The unnamed aides and White House sources confirming that Trump will nominate Amy Coney Barrett have told reporters that the president could change his mind between now and tomorrow, according to multiple accounts. All signs, however, point to Barrett, reports say. The New York Times said aides “cautioned” that “Trump sometimes upends his own plans”, but also noted that the president appears to have only interviewed Barrett for the post. CNN, which first reported the news, said Barrett was seen at her South Bend, Indiana home today. The network also said it was unclear if Barrett has been told she is the choice, and noted that she may be informed “as late as possible to maintain secrecy around the announcement”. Some reporters have been camped outside her home:
The scene outside of Amy Coney Barrett’s South Bend Home, more than 24 hours before we hear the SCOTUS pick. pic.twitter.com/FFt8vOPDYF — Adam Wren (@adamwren) September 25, 2020
25 Sept 2020 23.04 BST While the enormity of tackling climate change can be so overwhelming that some people shut down, presenting people with examples of how they can take action offers hope, says prominent US climate scientist Katharine Hayhoe. In a live interview with Reuters on Thursday Hayhoe explained how the climate crisis was causing weather events such as heat waves, wildfires and hurricanes to become more severe and more frequent.
“According to natural factors we should be very gradually but inevitably getting cooler right now,” said Hayhoe, an atmospheric scientist at Texas Tech University in Lubbock. “Instead we’re getting warmer faster than any time in the history of human civilization on this planet.” Leonardo DiCaprio, Katharine Hayhoe and Barack Obama at the White House for a discussion on the climate crisis, in 2016. Photograph: Pool/Getty Images
The urgency of climate change is real, she said, calling it “a here issue, and a now issue.” Climate change was a major factor in heat waves that made recent fires in Siberia, Australia, and right now in the US West so extensive and damaging, she said. Hayhoe, widely known as a top communicator of climate change, addressed what often stands in the way of more aggressive action toward reducing emissions and adapting our societies to cope with change. “Scaring the pants off us, for most of us, doesn’t move us forward. It actually causes us to freeze. That’s how our brains are hard-wired,” Hayhoe said. “We are wired to move forward not only to escape fear but rather towards a reward, something positive.” Instead, Hayhoe focuses on communicating how climate change is affecting people locally and offering suggestions for how people can help provide solutions, even if those solutions appear small. Giving people a sense of efficacy, she said, means giving people hope. Follow the Guardian’s special series Climate Countdown as we brace ahead of the election. Donald Trump’s actions are scheduled to cause the US to leave the Paris Climate Accord on November 4, the day after the election. That is the pact agreed between most of the world’s countries, to tackle the climate crisis.
25 Sept 2020 22.52 BST Who is Amy Coney Barrett? As more reporters confirm that Amy Coney Barrett is Trump’s pick for supreme court nominee, a quick reminder about some key parts of her background and legacy: She is a 48-year-old judge, who currently sits on the US circuit court of appeals in Chicago. If confirmed, she would be the youngest supreme court justice .
. Barrett was nominated by Trump and confirmed by the Senate in October 2017 by a 55-43 vote. The 7th circuit in Chicago covers the states of Illinois, Indiana and Wisconsin.
She is a devout Catholic and mother of seven, who staunchly opposes abortion . Progressives fear she would vote to overturn the critical Roe v Wade ruling, which safeguards the right to abortion.
. Progressives fear she would vote to overturn the critical Roe v Wade ruling, which safeguards the right to abortion. In her nearly three years on the bench, Barrett has authored around 100 opinions and revealing dissents in which she has been consistently conservative on a wide range of topics, including guns, campus sexual assault and health care .
. Barrett served as a law clerk to supreme court justice Antonin Scalia, worked briefly as a private lawyer in DC and became a University of Notre Dame law school professor in 2002.
When asked about her religious beliefs in the 2017 confirmation hearings, she said: “I would stress that my personal church affiliation or my religious belief would not bear in the discharge of my duties as a judge.”
Barrett was on Trump’s list of potential nominees in 2018 to replace Anthony Kennedy, but the president reportedly said, “I’m saving her for Ginsburg.” More: 'I'm saving her for Ginsburg': who is Amy Coney Barrett, Trump's likely supreme court pick? Read more
25 Sept 2020 22.23 BST GOP preparing for Amy Coney Barrett, AP reports Another report is out on the rumors of Trump’s supreme court nominee pick scheduled to be revealed tomorrow: Republicans are expecting and preparing for Trump to announce that he is nominating Judge Amy Coney Barrett, the AP is reporting. More from the AP: Conservative groups and congressional allies are laying the groundwork for a swift confirmation process for Barrett, even before Trump makes the selection official. They, like the president, are wasting little time moving to replace the late Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, organizing multimillion-dollar ad campaigns and marshalling supporters both to confirm the pick and to boost Trump to a second term. A number of outside conservative groups are planning to spend more than $25 million to support the president’s nominee, the AP noted. The Judicial Crisis Network has organized a coalition that includes American First Policies, the Susan B Anthony List, the Club for Growth and the group Catholic Vote. Some additional background on Barrett: 'I'm saving her for Ginsburg': who is Amy Coney Barrett, Trump's likely supreme court pick? Read more
Updated at 22.26 BST
25 Sept 2020 22.13 BST Oregon declares state of emergency over Proud Boys rally Hi all - Sam Levin in Los Angeles, taking over our live coverage for the rest of the day. First some news from Portland, Oregon, where Governor Kate Brown is sending state troopers and sheriffs deputies to the city to help police monitor a weekend rally by the rightwing Proud Boys and counter-protests by liberal groups. As the AP reports, “Portland has been roiled by often violent protests for more than three months following the police killing of George Floyd in Minneapolis in May. Demonstrations that went into a lull during wildfires resumed this week, fueled by a Kentucky grand jury’s decision to not indict officers in the killing of Breonna Taylor. Brown told reporters she was exercising her authority to place Multnomah county sheriff Mike Reese and Oregon state police superintendent Travis Hampton in charge of Portland’s public safety on Saturday and Sunday. Brown said Portland mayor Ted Wheeler supported the plan. “This is our entire community coming together to protect our community,” Brown said. “We want the highest level of coordination and the strongest leadership possible.” Similar competing demonstrations have ended with fistfights and bloodshed, including the fatal shooting on 29 August of Aaron “Jay” Danielson, a supporter of a rightwing group who was killed after Trump supporters drove pickup trucks in a caravan downtown. The suspect, leftwing protester Michael Reinoehl, was killed by federal officers in neighboring Washington state. Superintendent Hampton said: “If you want to come to Oregon, to Portland, to peacefully protest, to assemble, to voice your outrage, to voice your concern – we welcome you for that. If your job and your intent is to come to Oregon to commit crimes, to provoke, to make people feel unsafe in their homes then we do not want you to come here.” Portland, of course, was one of the cities named by the US Department of Justice as an “anarchist jurisdiction” this week – a wholly political move by attorney general Bill Barr designed to support Donald Trump’s “law and order” electoral campaign. For further reading, from another anarchist jurisdiction, here’s a piece from Gothamist and not the Onion, honest: “Local Anarchists Miffed By Trump’s Designation Of NYC As Anarchist Jurisdiction.”
25 Sept 2020 21.58 BST Trump on threat not to concede power: I was joking… or was I? I’m about to hand this blog on to Sam Levin in our West Coast office. In the meantime, according to the pool report, Donald Trump’s speech in Atlanta went on for around an hour and included the usual doozies, including a joke about fears he will not accept the result of the election should he lose to Joe Biden. According to the pool report: “Will we be president in 10 years?” President Trump asked, then explaining that whenever he said things like this he is joking, but “you can’t joke”. “’I told you he’s a dictator, he will not give up power!’” he said, mimicking what he said were people failing to get his sense of humor. “Twelve more years!” chanted the crowd after the president said the media exaggerates when people jokingly chant 12 more years. Trump also repeated his claim that the election result may not be known on 3 November because of mailed-in ballots and added: “With me, we may end up in a dispute for a long time, because that’s the way [Democrats] want it, but we’re going to end up winning.” The president was speaking to a predominantly African American audience, which reportedly was responsive to his evidence-free attacks on the Black Lives Matter movement. Trump referenced Breonna Taylor and others. “Our hearts break for their families and for all families who have lost a loved one, especially if you look at this way – so senseless. But we can never allow mob rule.” Says BLM is “really hurting the black community”. The crowd boos when he mentioned the words Black Lives Matter. Says BLM aims to “achieve the destruction of the nuclear family, abolish the police, abolish prisons, abolish border security, abolish capitalism and abolish schools”. Denounces “wealthy liberal hypocrites” supporting BLM and living in “walled compounds”. Trump also took a shot at Biden, for “staying in again today”. In response to which the pool reporter notes, drily: “Actually, Biden went to Washington today to pay respects to the late justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg lying in state in the US Capitol.” This is what happened yesterday, when Trump and first lady Melania Trump went to the supreme court to pay their respects: 00:50 'Vote him out': Trump booed while paying respects to Ruth Bader Ginsburg – video
25 Sept 2020 21.39 BST To polling news, in light of the last post, because, well, everybody loves a good poll. Don’t they. The Washington Post heralds a new survey it has carried out with ABC News, which says a clear majority of Americans do not think Donald Trump and the Republicans who hold the Senate should get to confirm a replacement for Ruth Bader Ginsburg, the supreme court justice who died last week aged 87, before the election on 3 November. CNN says the replacement will be Amy Coney Barrett, which we all essentially knew, unless of course it isn’t. The poll from WaPo and ABC, like others which have shown similar results, does not matter one tiny bit in the most obvious sense, because Donald Trump and the Republicans who hold the Senate are going to confirm their replacement for Ginsburg and there is nothing the Democrats or the voters can do to stop them. The court is going to tip 6-3 to the right, after Trump stages his unveiling tomorrow. But, anyway, the WaPo/ABC poll finds: 38% of Americans say the replacement for Ginsburg should be nominated by Trump and confirmed by the current Senate, while 57% say it should be left to the winner of the presidential election and a Senate vote next year. Partisans are deeply divided on the issue, though clear majorities of independents (61%) and women (64%) say the next justice should be chosen by the winner of the election, including about half of each group who feel this way ‘strongly’. What might such sentiment mean at the polls, is the question. My guess is it might be bad news for Trump and Senate Republicans and Democratic control of everything except the court might be on the way. But if it is, a sixth conservative justice will be one hell of a consolation prize. Here again is David Litt, once a speechwriter to Barack Obama, now the author of Democracy In One Book Or Less, about what Democrats might do in return: Republicans will replace RBG but Democrats hold the trump cards – no, really | David Litt Read more
25 Sept 2020 21.17 BST Amy Coney Barrett is Trump supreme court pick – report Citing “multiple senior Republican sources with knowledge of the process”, CNN reports that Donald Trump has settled on Amy Coney Barrett as his pick to replace Ruth Bader Ginsburg on the supreme court. Amy Coney Barrett. Photograph: AP This is not a surprise, as the Indiana judge is widely expected to be Trump’s pick, to be unveiled at the White House on Saturday. Barbara Lagoa of Florida is also reported to have been in contention. CNN has a kind of all-purpose Trumpnews disclaimer very close to the top of its report: “All sources cautioned that until it is announced by the president, there is always the possibility that Trump makes a last-minute change.” See: Iran, strikes against, influence of Tucker Carlson in postponing of (2019). But Barrett “was the plan all along,” CNN quotes “a former senior administration familiar with the process” as saying. “She’s the most distinguished and qualified by traditional measures. She has the strongest support among the legal conservatives who have dedicated their lives to the court. She will contribute most to the court’s jurisprudence in the years and decades to come.”
Trump was indeed reported to have said of Barrett, whose devout Catholicism fills women’s rights and pro-choice advocates with fear: “I’m saving her for Ginsburg.” Here’s David Litt again, on what Democrats might do after Barrett is confirmed, because she will be, because it bears repeating: Republicans will replace RBG but Democrats hold the trump cards – no, really | David Litt Read more
25 Sept 2020 21.02 BST Ron Paul: 'I am doing fine' The AP has an update on the health of Ron Paul: Former Republican presidential candidate Ron Paul posted a picture of himself in a hospital on Friday but said he was OK, after video circulated online of him struggling to speak during an interview. The 85-year-old former Texas congressman, who ran for the White House three times, posted a picture on Facebook showing him smiling in a hospital gown and giving a thumbs-up. “I am doing fine. Thank you for your concern,” he said. The post came after a video took off on social media showing Paul having trouble speaking during an appearance on his live-streamed show, Ron Paul Liberty Report. The video cut away to the interviewer as Paul struggles. Paul is the father of Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky, whose office did not immediately return a message. Paul gained a loyal following running for president in 1988 and 2008, then saw his popularity rise with that of the Tea Party movement before he sought the White House again in 2012. He retired from his Texas district in 2013.
25 Sept 2020 20.45 BST Trump speaks in Atlanta Donald Trump has a speaking engagement in Atlanta this afternoon, at a campaign event titled “Black Economic Empowerment: The Platinum Plan.” The pool report offers some interesting descriptions of an event, in a state where the polls are tighter than they might be for a Republican incumbent, which has featured “a series warm-up speeches from African American leaders, including housing secretary Ben Carson”. “Speakers lauded the president with a torrent of scriptural references that frequently gave the atmosphere more of a church than election campaign. ‘God made this man president,’ said one. Allow me to pause a second and allow the tiniest scrap of editorial voice into this blog, although as my editorial voice in such instances is essentially a poor impression of Christopher Hitchens after three Johnnie Walker Black Labels, faced on some college auditorium stage somewhere by an author of something called something like “The Atheist Delusion” … it’s probably a bad idea. Anyway: “God made this man president”. Really? In that case, to quote Woody Allen, while I’m having bad ideas, “If it turns out that there is a God … the worst that you can say about him is that basically he’s an underachiever.” For God and Country review: Christian case for Trump is a thin read indeed Read more “NFL great Herschel Walker” gave the last endorsement speech in Atlanta and said: “I’ve always know that he was different. “He don’t get the credit for all the things that he done in the African American community. He keeps God in the house. “All us Americans have received so many touchdown passes from this man that … it is time to recognize our quarterback.” The pool report adds that “there are approximately 200 people in the audience, nearly all of them African Americans. Zero social distancing. A great many not wearing masks.”
Updated at 20.48 BST


theguardian--2020-09-25--UK to become WHO's largest state donor with 30% funding increase

Boris Johnson will announce a 30 % increase in the UK ’ s funding of the World Health Organization , making the UK the single largest national donor after the US leaves .
In an announcement at the UN General Assembly , he will urge it to heal “ the ugly rifts ” that are damaging the international fight against coronavirus .
While Trump has denounced the WHO as corrupt and under China ’ s influence , Johnson will announce £340m in UK funding over the next four years , a 30 % increase .
He will also suggest the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ reports on how countries are handling a pandemic .
The proposals will form part of a British vision , drawn up in conjunction with the Gates Foundation , of how future health pandemics could be better controlled , including “ zoonotic labs ” capable of identifying potentially dangerous pathogens in animals before they transmit to humans .
Johnson ’ s pre-recorded video , on the final main day of the UN General Assembly and four days after most world leaders have spoken , comes at the end of a week in which China @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for the virus .
Both have refused to join the WHO effort to find a global coronavirus vaccine , preferring a national approach .
Johnson will say : “ After nine months of fighting Covid , the very notion of the international community looks tattered .
We know that we can not continue in this way .
Unless we unite and turn our fire against our common foe , we know that everyone will lose .
“ Now is the time therefore – here at what I devoutly hope will be the first @ @ @ @ @ @ @ humanity to reach across borders and repair these ugly rifts .
Here in the UK , the birthplace of Edward Jenner who pioneered the world ’ s first vaccine , we are determined to do everything in our power to work with our friends across the UN to heal those divisions and to heal the world.
” Earlier at the UN this week , he said that the coronavirus “ came out of left field , humanity was caught napping , let ’ s face it , we were woefully underprepared ” .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ WHO board meeting next week at which a joint Franco-German paper is to be discussed calling for more reliable , larger and less conditional funding of the WHO .
The UK contribution will be set at £340m over the next four years , making it the most generous nation state contributor , Downing Street said .
While the US is currently the largest funder , if Trump is re-elected president , it will pull out by next summer , taking with it as much as $ 900m in voluntary and compulsory contributions over @ @ @ @ @ @ @ designed to help multilateral bodies and ensure equitable distribution of a coronavirus vaccine , once it is discovered , Johnson will also call for new pandemic early-warning systems , new global protocols for health crises and the removal of trade barriers .
The WHO has set up an internal inquiry into its handling of the pandemic , including China ’ s role in informing the WHO that the virus was on the loose in the country .
Johnson will also use his address to announce significant new investment in Covax , the international @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The UK will contribute an initial £71m to secure purchase rights for up to 27m vaccine doses for the UK .
He will also announce £500m in aid funding for the Covax advance market commitment , a facility to help 92 of the world ’ s poorest countries access any coronavirus vaccine at the earliest opportunity .
The commitment is also designed to guarantee to private manufacturers that they will have a market for their vaccines , ensuring the necessary research and development takes place .
Neither China nor the US have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ keep their vaccine research under their own control .
Johnson will use his UN speech to call for “ a vast expansion of our ability to collect and analyse samples and distribute the findings , using health data-sharing agreements covering every country ” .
His speech contains no direct criticism of China ’ s sharing of data at the beginning of the crisis , Downing Street said .

Boris Johnson will announce a 30% increase in the UK’s funding of the World Health Organization, making the UK the single largest national donor after the US leaves.
In an announcement at the UN General Assembly, he will urge it to heal “the ugly rifts” that are damaging the international fight against coronavirus.
While Trump has denounced the WHO as corrupt and under China’s influence, Johnson will announce £340m in UK funding over the next four years, a 30% increase. He will also suggest the body be given greater powers to demand reports on how countries are handling a pandemic.
The proposals will form part of a British vision, drawn up in conjunction with the Gates Foundation, of how future health pandemics could be better controlled, including “zoonotic labs” capable of identifying potentially dangerous pathogens in animals before they transmit to humans.
Johnson’s pre-recorded video, on the final main day of the UN General Assembly and four days after most world leaders have spoken, comes at the end of a week in which China and the US have argued over responsibility for the virus. Both have refused to join the WHO effort to find a global coronavirus vaccine, preferring a national approach.
Johnson will say: “After nine months of fighting Covid, the very notion of the international community looks tattered. We know that we cannot continue in this way. Unless we unite and turn our fire against our common foe, we know that everyone will lose.
“Now is the time therefore – here at what I devoutly hope will be the first and last ever Zoom UNGA – for humanity to reach across borders and repair these ugly rifts. Here in the UK, the birthplace of Edward Jenner who pioneered the world’s first vaccine, we are determined to do everything in our power to work with our friends across the UN to heal those divisions and to heal the world.”
Earlier at the UN this week, he said that the coronavirus “came out of left field, humanity was caught napping, let’s face it, we were woefully underprepared”.
The extra UK cash comes ahead of WHO board meeting next week at which a joint Franco-German paper is to be discussed calling for more reliable, larger and less conditional funding of the WHO.
The UK contribution will be set at £340m over the next four years, making it the most generous nation state contributor, Downing Street said. While the US is currently the largest funder, if Trump is re-elected president, it will pull out by next summer, taking with it as much as $900m in voluntary and compulsory contributions over two years.
Apart from funding increases designed to help multilateral bodies and ensure equitable distribution of a coronavirus vaccine, once it is discovered, Johnson will also call for new pandemic early-warning systems, new global protocols for health crises and the removal of trade barriers.
The WHO has set up an internal inquiry into its handling of the pandemic, including China’s role in informing the WHO that the virus was on the loose in the country.
Johnson will also use his address to announce significant new investment in Covax, the international coronavirus vaccines procurement pool announced in April. The UK will contribute an initial £71m to secure purchase rights for up to 27m vaccine doses for the UK.
He will also announce £500m in aid funding for the Covax advance market commitment, a facility to help 92 of the world’s poorest countries access any coronavirus vaccine at the earliest opportunity. The commitment is also designed to guarantee to private manufacturers that they will have a market for their vaccines, ensuring the necessary research and development takes place. Neither China nor the US have agreed to join Covax, preferring to keep their vaccine research under their own control.
Johnson will use his UN speech to call for “a vast expansion of our ability to collect and analyse samples and distribute the findings, using health data-sharing agreements covering every country”.
His speech contains no direct criticism of China’s sharing of data at the beginning of the crisis, Downing Street said.