thewashingtonexaminer--2020-07-31--Maine now leading Democratic efforts to win Senate majority

Democrats ' summer surge in Maine augurs well for their efforts across the rest of the Senate map this fall .
Democratic state House Speaker Sara Gideon is widening her lead on 23-year Republican incumbent Sen. Susan Collins , according to a Colby College poll this week .
And pollsters found that 's because Collins 's approval rating is dipping , in part because of President Trump .
Colby College political science professor Sandy Maisel explained Trump was casting a shadow over Collins 's fifth reelection campaign .
And that foreshadows down-ballot problems for other Senate Republican contenders sharing a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fights to continue controlling the chamber .
Maisel told the Washington Examiner that Gideon was exploiting the dynamic in her bid , tensions exacerbated by Democrats ' intense dislike of Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell .
While 44 % of respondents told Colby College pollsters they 'd back Gideon , 39 % said the same for Collins .
That 's a shift from five months ago ( before the coronavirus lockdowns ) when Colby College had the rivals in a statistical tie .
Researchers attributed the movement to softening support from younger voters @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in larger towns and cities .
Respondents also said they believed Collins was `` too close '' to Trump .
Once celebrated for her independence , Collins sided with Trump and Senate Republican leadership over tax cuts , Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh , and impeachment .
She 's often hounded by congressional reporters for her honest assessments of the Trump administration .
But she was widely mocked for claiming Trump learned “ a pretty big lesson ” from impeachment before being corrected by the president himself .
Perhaps distancing herself from the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ been playing up how she 's been coy so far this cycle about whether she 'll cast a ballot for him on Nov. 3 .
Maisel listed Arizona , Colorado , Iowa , Montana , and North Carolina as other states where Trump could be a liability for his colleagues as well .
`` [ They ] are all threatened by candidates who have good name recognition , have raised huge sums of money , and who are tying incumbent Republicans to the president , '' he said .
`` You even see @ @ @ @ @ @ @ chance of winning , at least in my view , but where they are running credible campaigns that are detracting GOP resources from the states most in need — both Georgia seats , South Carolina , Texas , and even Kentucky . ''
The Cook Political Report announced new Senate race ratings last week that increase Democrats ' chances of clinching the chamber and buttress aspects of Maisel 's argument .
The nonpartisan outlet moved the Arizona race from its `` toss up '' column to its leaning Democratic counterpart and the Minnesota @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to being solidly in the party 's ledger .
Simultaneously , the Cook Political Report transposed Iowa and Georgia 's regularly scheduled elections from leaning Republican to too close to call .
But a GOP aide reminded the Washington Examiner that Colorado was firmly in the toss-up category , as were Maine , Montana , and North Carolina .
Kentucky , South Carolina , and Texas remained characterized as likely GOP .
Democrats need to flip three to four GOP-held seats , depending on the presidential race , to regain power in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ polls of the season indicate some seats could pay dividends , such as Arizona and North Carolina .
Others , including Colorado and Georgia , seem to require more investment .
In Arizona , Democrat Mark Kelly 's ahead of Republican Sen. Martha McSally by 16 percentage points , 52 % to 36 % , according to Morning Consult .
That lead 's more than twice his RealClearPolitics average of 6.8 points .
Meanwhile , Democrat Cal Cunningham is 9 points in front of North Carolina GOP Sen. Thom Tillis , 46 % @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 6.2-point margin , by RealClearPolitics 's count .
Although newly minted Democratic nominee John Hickenlooper 's 6 points ahead of Republican Sen. Cory Gardner , 48 % to 42 % , that 's narrower than other polling that gives Hickenlooper a double-digit advantage .
Similarly , GOP Sen. David Perdue maintains a 3-point edge on Democrat Jon Ossoff , 45 % to 42 % .
Again , that 's slimmer than the average 5-point berth assigned to him by RealClearPolitics .
For Maisel , Republicans could correct their course if Trump changes his @ @ @ @ @ @ @ suburban voters turned off by his divisive rhetoric .
But in a memo released this week , the National Republican Senatorial Committee suggests their biggest weapon is Democrats themselves .
`` Voters despise the policies championed by today ’ s Democrat party , '' the memo states .
It adds : `` Between a favorable map and $ 200 million spent cycle to date , Democrats have always had a numbers advantage in the battle for the Senate majority .
Despite that , and an incredibly favorable environment , the race for the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ That is a testament to the strength of our candidates . ''
NRSC spokesman Nathan Brand touted how Collins had demonstrated bipartisanship throughout her tenure .
`` Meanwhile , Democrat Sara Gideon can ’ t be trusted , especially now that voters know that when she was approached about an alleged sexual predator serving in her caucus , she did nothing .
The more Mainers learn about Gideon , the more they know they can ’ t risk gambling on someone with such a dishonest and unethical record , '' he said .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ for Senate Democrats ' campaign organization , is confident her party can swing Maine and the other states based on `` Trump 's reckless agenda . ''
In addition to the pandemic and tax code reform , she said healthcare was top of the minds of voters .
`` It ’ s too late for an election-year makeover for these vulnerable incumbents — they can ’ t escape their toxic records of gutting healthcare and capitulating to an increasingly unpopular president instead of standing up for their states , '' she said .

Democrats' summer surge in Maine augurs well for their efforts across the rest of the Senate map this fall.
Democratic state House Speaker Sara Gideon is widening her lead on 23-year Republican incumbent Sen. Susan Collins, according to a Colby College poll this week. And pollsters found that's because Collins's approval rating is dipping, in part because of President Trump.
Colby College political science professor Sandy Maisel explained Trump was casting a shadow over Collins's fifth reelection campaign. And that foreshadows down-ballot problems for other Senate Republican contenders sharing a ticket with the president as the GOP fights to continue controlling the chamber.
Maisel told the Washington Examiner that Gideon was exploiting the dynamic in her bid, tensions exacerbated by Democrats' intense dislike of Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell.
While 44% of respondents told Colby College pollsters they'd back Gideon, 39% said the same for Collins. That's a shift from five months ago (before the coronavirus lockdowns) when Colby College had the rivals in a statistical tie. Researchers attributed the movement to softening support from younger voters, women, and those who live in larger towns and cities. Respondents also said they believed Collins was "too close" to Trump.
Once celebrated for her independence, Collins sided with Trump and Senate Republican leadership over tax cuts, Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh, and impeachment. She's often hounded by congressional reporters for her honest assessments of the Trump administration. But she was widely mocked for claiming Trump learned “a pretty big lesson” from impeachment before being corrected by the president himself. Perhaps distancing herself from the White House occupant, Maine Democrats have been playing up how she's been coy so far this cycle about whether she'll cast a ballot for him on Nov. 3.
Maisel listed Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Montana, and North Carolina as other states where Trump could be a liability for his colleagues as well.
"[They] are all threatened by candidates who have good name recognition, have raised huge sums of money, and who are tying incumbent Republicans to the president," he said. "You even see that in states where Democrats have less chance of winning, at least in my view, but where they are running credible campaigns that are detracting GOP resources from the states most in need — both Georgia seats, South Carolina, Texas, and even Kentucky."
The Cook Political Report announced new Senate race ratings last week that increase Democrats' chances of clinching the chamber and buttress aspects of Maisel's argument.
The nonpartisan outlet moved the Arizona race from its "toss up" column to its leaning Democratic counterpart and the Minnesota and New Mexico contests from likely Democratic to being solidly in the party's ledger.
Simultaneously, the Cook Political Report transposed Iowa and Georgia's regularly scheduled elections from leaning Republican to too close to call.
But a GOP aide reminded the Washington Examiner that Colorado was firmly in the toss-up category, as were Maine, Montana, and North Carolina. Kentucky, South Carolina, and Texas remained characterized as likely GOP.
Democrats need to flip three to four GOP-held seats, depending on the presidential race, to regain power in the Senate. Morning Consult's first senatorial polls of the season indicate some seats could pay dividends, such as Arizona and North Carolina. Others, including Colorado and Georgia, seem to require more investment.
In Arizona, Democrat Mark Kelly's ahead of Republican Sen. Martha McSally by 16 percentage points, 52% to 36%, according to Morning Consult. That lead's more than twice his RealClearPolitics average of 6.8 points.
Meanwhile, Democrat Cal Cunningham is 9 points in front of North Carolina GOP Sen. Thom Tillis, 46% to 37%. Cunningham averages a 6.2-point margin, by RealClearPolitics's count.
Although newly minted Democratic nominee John Hickenlooper's 6 points ahead of Republican Sen. Cory Gardner, 48% to 42%, that's narrower than other polling that gives Hickenlooper a double-digit advantage.
Similarly, GOP Sen. David Perdue maintains a 3-point edge on Democrat Jon Ossoff, 45% to 42%. Again, that's slimmer than the average 5-point berth assigned to him by RealClearPolitics.
For Maisel, Republicans could correct their course if Trump changes his stance toward the outbreak or woos back suburban voters turned off by his divisive rhetoric.
But in a memo released this week, the National Republican Senatorial Committee suggests their biggest weapon is Democrats themselves.
"Voters despise the policies championed by today’s Democrat party," the memo states.
It adds: "Between a favorable map and $200 million spent cycle to date, Democrats have always had a numbers advantage in the battle for the Senate majority. Despite that, and an incredibly favorable environment, the race for the Senate majority is still dead even. That is a testament to the strength of our candidates."
NRSC spokesman Nathan Brand touted how Collins had demonstrated bipartisanship throughout her tenure.
"Meanwhile, Democrat Sara Gideon can’t be trusted, especially now that voters know that when she was approached about an alleged sexual predator serving in her caucus, she did nothing. The more Mainers learn about Gideon, the more they know they can’t risk gambling on someone with such a dishonest and unethical record," he said.
Yet, Helen Kalla, a spokeswoman for Senate Democrats' campaign organization, is confident her party can swing Maine and the other states based on "Trump's reckless agenda." In addition to the pandemic and tax code reform, she said healthcare was top of the minds of voters.
"It’s too late for an election-year makeover for these vulnerable incumbents — they can’t escape their toxic records of gutting healthcare and capitulating to an increasingly unpopular president instead of standing up for their states," she said.


thewashingtonexaminer--2020-08-01--'It's go to time': Biden miffs 'go time' line during hyped Warren fundraiser

Joe Biden failed to deliver a key line of his stump speech during a much-hyped fundraiser with former primary rival Sen. Elizabeth Warren .
`` Folks , as my coach used to say , 'It 's go to time . '
It 's go time .
Now , '' the presumptive 2020 Democratic presidential nominee told grassroots donors on Friday , correcting his error .
Just 94 days before Election Day , the two-term vice president and 36-year U.S. senator , started the virtual event by thanking roughly 40,000 participants for helping him raise $ 1.5 million before July 's @ @ @ @ @ @ @ supporters to get out the vote by Nov. 3 , so together , Democrats could `` redeem '' the soul of the nation .
That 's a twist on his campaign slogan , `` restore the soul of the nation . ''
He essentially said to donors , `` I told you so '' after foreshadowing President Trump , his general election opponent , could `` try to kick back '' their contest somehow .
Trump this week floated the possibility of postponing their fall clash .
`` Remember , this president went @ @ @ @ @ @ @ he would say four months ago : He thinks maybe we should delay the election , '' Biden said .
`` Be prepared .
Be prepared .
It 's going to be a tough road . ''
Biden also slammed Trump 's response to the coronavirus pandemic , describing Dr. Stella Immanuel as `` some charlatan woman , who is something like out of a movie , a bad movie . ''
Immanuel earned Trump 's favor for touting hydroxychloroquine , an anti-malaria drug , as a cure for the coronavirus .
But @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hydroxychloroquine went viral , social media platforms removed it for being in violation of their misinformation polices .
Immanuel was also widely mocked after it was reported that she once claimed that alien DNA is included in medicines and that gynecological problems can be caused by people having sex with demons in their dreams .
Warren , a senator from Massachusetts , joined Biden for the question-and-answer portion of the gathering .
Referring to her ex-competitor deferentially as `` Mr. Vice President , '' she promised she 'd `` be right there with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cycle .
Her appearance coincides with Biden 's vice presidential search entering its final stage .
He 's set to announce his pick in the first week of August , and Warren remains on his rumored shortlist , with the pair speaking every 10 days or so .
Biden 's other running mate contenders are California Rep. Karen Bass , California Sen. Kamala Harris , and former Obama administration national security adviser Susan Rice .

Joe Biden failed to deliver a key line of his stump speech during a much-hyped fundraiser with former primary rival Sen. Elizabeth Warren.
"Folks, as my coach used to say, 'It's go to time.' It's go time. Now," the presumptive 2020 Democratic presidential nominee told grassroots donors on Friday, correcting his error.
Just 94 days before Election Day, the two-term vice president and 36-year U.S. senator, started the virtual event by thanking roughly 40,000 participants for helping him raise $1.5 million before July's fundraising deadline.
Biden called on his supporters to get out the vote by Nov. 3, so together, Democrats could "redeem" the soul of the nation. That's a twist on his campaign slogan, "restore the soul of the nation."
He essentially said to donors, "I told you so" after foreshadowing President Trump, his general election opponent, could "try to kick back" their contest somehow. Trump this week floated the possibility of postponing their fall clash.
"Remember, this president went so far to say what I warned he would say four months ago: He thinks maybe we should delay the election," Biden said. "Be prepared. Be prepared. It's going to be a tough road."
Biden also slammed Trump's response to the coronavirus pandemic, describing Dr. Stella Immanuel as "some charlatan woman, who is something like out of a movie, a bad movie."
Immanuel earned Trump's favor for touting hydroxychloroquine, an anti-malaria drug, as a cure for the coronavirus. But after the video of her advocacy for hydroxychloroquine went viral, social media platforms removed it for being in violation of their misinformation polices. Immanuel was also widely mocked after it was reported that she once claimed that alien DNA is included in medicines and that gynecological problems can be caused by people having sex with demons in their dreams.
Warren, a senator from Massachusetts, joined Biden for the question-and-answer portion of the gathering. Referring to her ex-competitor deferentially as "Mr. Vice President," she promised she'd "be right there with" him for the rest of the cycle.
Her appearance coincides with Biden's vice presidential search entering its final stage. He's set to announce his pick in the first week of August, and Warren remains on his rumored shortlist, with the pair speaking every 10 days or so.
Biden's other running mate contenders are California Rep. Karen Bass, California Sen. Kamala Harris, and former Obama administration national security adviser Susan Rice.


thewashingtonexaminer--2020-07-31--Scrapping filibuster likely if Democrats win Senate majority, opening up liberal agenda

Democrats say they 've finally exhausted all their patience : It 's time for the filibuster to go .
For years , both parties have threatened to get rid of the Senate rule , which allows the minority party to delay or block a vote on a legislative measure by speaking for an indefinite amount of time on the floor .
But a growing chorus from Democrats signals that the complaints about the filibuster this time around are different and that the party is serious about getting rid of it altogether .
On Thursday , President Barack Obama called the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and said that Democrats should end the practice should they take the Senate and presidency in November in order to pass dramatic electoral reform like automatic voter registration and restoring voting rights for felons out of prison .
Obama 's rhetoric echoed comments made by longtime Joe Biden confidante Sen. Chris Coons in late June when he said he would `` not stand idly by for four years and watch the Biden administration 's initiatives blocked at every turn . ''
The Delaware lawmaker added that `` what 's left of structural guardrails @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , which have been slowly chipped away at over the past decade by both parties , would need to be removed to tackle the `` mess at home and abroad . ''
Nearly a month later , Minority Leader Sen. Chuck Schumer said that `` nothing is off the table '' in terms of Senate reforms should his party regain a majority after the election .
Although Obama said removing minority protections in the Senate should be used for expanded voting rights , it 's clear that Democrats have much more ambitious plans @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as January defended the filibuster and said his administration could `` reach consensus '' with Republicans on certain issues , has changed his tune .
“ It ’ s going to depend on how obstreperous [ Republicans in the Senate ] become , ” Biden said earlier this month when asked about the topic .
`` I think you 're going to just have to take a look at [ the filibuster ] . ''
And for a presidential candidate who promises to unleash `` the most progressive agenda since FDR , '' @ @ @ @ @ @ @ socialist Sen. Bernie Sanders , getting Republicans in the Senate on board with any of Biden 's policy proposals may prove impossible .
Despite his general vagueness on the campaign trail , both Biden 's campaign website and the Democratic National Committee 's new platform outlines myriad new programs and plans that virtually no Republican would sign onto .
During the primary , Biden promised that new gun control measures would be one his priorities during his first year in office .
In the 1990s , Biden , in the midst of his @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , led the charge to ban `` assault weapons . ''
That ban has since expired , and despite the chance that some swing-state Democrats may oppose its reenactment , getting 51 members of Biden 's party on board in the Senate would be almost a certainty should the filibuster be ended .
Similarly to those who back gun control , immigration reform advocates are some of the most energized constituents of the Democratic Party .
Biden 's current proposal , which would provide a `` roadmap to citizenship for the nearly 11 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ liberal policy by any major party nominee in modern history .
As the GOP learned from the failed `` Gang of Eight '' bill in 2013 , and President Trump 's ascension to the White House three years later , any compromise on the issue could provoke a massive backlash from voters .
Ending the filibuster would stifle any efforts to block Biden 's plan by an ambitious Republican with his eyes set on 2024 .
Democrats , including Obama , have also backed statehood for both Washington and Puerto Rico .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ U.S. territory , but legislation making Washington the 51st state has already passed the House .
The district has never voted for a Republican presidential candidate , meaning its statehood would all but guarantee two new Democratic senators , making a GOP majority in the chamber that much more difficult to win back .
Aside from constitutional objections to the measure , should Democrats retake the Senate and White House in 2020 , the only thing stopping Washington statehood would be the filibuster .
The temptation to end the filibuster will remain strong @ @ @ @ @ @ @ — but so does the possibility the move would backfire down the road .
`` You will no doubt come to regret this , and you may regret it a lot sooner than you think , ” then Minority Leader Mitch McConnell warned Democrats in 2013 after the Senate changed its rules that eliminated the filibuster for federal court nominees .
Republicans won a Senate majority the next year and have since approved judicial appointments by Trump at a record pace .

Democrats say they've finally exhausted all their patience: It's time for the filibuster to go.
For years, both parties have threatened to get rid of the Senate rule, which allows the minority party to delay or block a vote on a legislative measure by speaking for an indefinite amount of time on the floor. But a growing chorus from Democrats signals that the complaints about the filibuster this time around are different and that the party is serious about getting rid of it altogether.
On Thursday, President Barack Obama called the tactic "another Jim Crow relic" and said that Democrats should end the practice should they take the Senate and presidency in November in order to pass dramatic electoral reform like automatic voter registration and restoring voting rights for felons out of prison.
Obama's rhetoric echoed comments made by longtime Joe Biden confidante Sen. Chris Coons in late June when he said he would "not stand idly by for four years and watch the Biden administration's initiatives blocked at every turn." The Delaware lawmaker added that "what's left of structural guardrails," meaning the remaining filibuster rules, which have been slowly chipped away at over the past decade by both parties, would need to be removed to tackle the "mess at home and abroad."
Nearly a month later, Minority Leader Sen. Chuck Schumer said that "nothing is off the table" in terms of Senate reforms should his party regain a majority after the election.
Although Obama said removing minority protections in the Senate should be used for expanded voting rights, it's clear that Democrats have much more ambitious plans. Even Biden, who as recently as January defended the filibuster and said his administration could "reach consensus" with Republicans on certain issues, has changed his tune.
“It’s going to depend on how obstreperous [Republicans in the Senate] become,” Biden said earlier this month when asked about the topic. "I think you're going to just have to take a look at [the filibuster]."
And for a presidential candidate who promises to unleash "the most progressive agenda since FDR," in the words of former rival and socialist Sen. Bernie Sanders, getting Republicans in the Senate on board with any of Biden's policy proposals may prove impossible. Despite his general vagueness on the campaign trail, both Biden's campaign website and the Democratic National Committee's new platform outlines myriad new programs and plans that virtually no Republican would sign onto.
During the primary, Biden promised that new gun control measures would be one his priorities during his first year in office. In the 1990s, Biden, in the midst of his 36 years as a senator representing Delaware, led the charge to ban "assault weapons." That ban has since expired, and despite the chance that some swing-state Democrats may oppose its reenactment, getting 51 members of Biden's party on board in the Senate would be almost a certainty should the filibuster be ended.
Similarly to those who back gun control, immigration reform advocates are some of the most energized constituents of the Democratic Party. Biden's current proposal, which would provide a "roadmap to citizenship for the nearly 11 million" illegal immigrants constitutes the most liberal policy by any major party nominee in modern history. As the GOP learned from the failed "Gang of Eight" bill in 2013, and President Trump's ascension to the White House three years later, any compromise on the issue could provoke a massive backlash from voters. Ending the filibuster would stifle any efforts to block Biden's plan by an ambitious Republican with his eyes set on 2024.
Democrats, including Obama, have also backed statehood for both Washington and Puerto Rico. The latter requires permission from residents of the U.S. territory, but legislation making Washington the 51st state has already passed the House. The district has never voted for a Republican presidential candidate, meaning its statehood would all but guarantee two new Democratic senators, making a GOP majority in the chamber that much more difficult to win back. Aside from constitutional objections to the measure, should Democrats retake the Senate and White House in 2020, the only thing stopping Washington statehood would be the filibuster.
The temptation to end the filibuster will remain strong for Democrats should November go their way — but so does the possibility the move would backfire down the road.
"You will no doubt come to regret this, and you may regret it a lot sooner than you think,” then Minority Leader Mitch McConnell warned Democrats in 2013 after the Senate changed its rules that eliminated the filibuster for federal court nominees. Republicans won a Senate majority the next year and have since approved judicial appointments by Trump at a record pace.


thewashingtonexaminer--2020-07-31--Third poll shows close race, Biden 50%, Trump 46%, 53% think Trump will win

While many in the media feed off polls showing Democratic challenger Joe Biden poised for a blowout election victory , the third survey this week showed the race much closer , with just 4 points dividing the candidates .
The just-released Emerson College poll showed Biden at 50 % and President Trump at 46 % .
The survey of 964 likely voters has a plus or minus 3.1 percentage point rating of accuracy .
And , it added , “ A majority of voters , 53 % , still think Trump will be reelected in November.
” It was the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ narrow election .
The Zogby Poll also put the race at 4 points , 44 % for Biden and 40 % for Trump .
And Rasmussen had it at 6 points , 48 % for Biden and 42 % for Trump .
Last week , Rasmussen had the race 47 % Biden to 45 % Trump .
The Emerson College poll also looked at who planned to vote and how .
It found Trump ahead of Biden among those who plan to vote in person .
“ With the safety concerns of voting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ majority ( 58 % ) of voters still plan to vote in person , while 43 % plan to vote by mail .
Among those who plan to vote in person , Trump leads 65 % to 32 % ; Biden leads with those who intend to vote by mail , 76 % to 20 % , ” it said .

While many in the media feed off polls showing Democratic challenger Joe Biden poised for a blowout election victory, the third survey this week showed the race much closer, with just 4 points dividing the candidates.
The just-released Emerson College poll showed Biden at 50% and President Trump at 46%. The survey of 964 likely voters has a plus or minus 3.1 percentage point rating of accuracy.
And, it added, “A majority of voters, 53%, still think Trump will be reelected in November.”
It was the third poll this week to show a narrow election.
The Zogby Poll also put the race at 4 points, 44% for Biden and 40% for Trump.
And Rasmussen had it at 6 points, 48% for Biden and 42% for Trump. Last week, Rasmussen had the race 47% Biden to 45% Trump.
The Emerson College poll also looked at who planned to vote and how. It found Trump ahead of Biden among those who plan to vote in person.
“With the safety concerns of voting in person due to COVID-19, a majority (58%) of voters still plan to vote in person, while 43% plan to vote by mail. Among those who plan to vote in person, Trump leads 65% to 32%; Biden leads with those who intend to vote by mail, 76% to 20%,” it said.


thewashingtonexaminer--2020-07-31--Schweikert's reelection prospects iffy after reprimand for campaign finance violations

Rep. David Schweikert must now convince Arizona ’ s 6th Congressional District that he is worthy of reelection after receiving a congressional reprimand for 11 ethics violations over campaign finance manipulations .
The Arizona Republican , who agreed to pay a $ 50,000 fine after the House Ethics Committee Thursday found that he “ erroneously disclosed or failed to disclose ” $ 305,000 in loans or repayment of loans `` made or obtained for the benefit of his congressional campaigns '' from July 2010 to December 2017 , is struggling to raise money for his reelection efforts .
Schweikert ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ chances in the Cook Political Report-rated Republican-leaning district , which has sent him to Congress since 2010 .
The latest Federal Election Commission filings show that the Arizona Republican has just over $ 230,000 cash on hand , while the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee-endorsed candidate in the race , Hiiral Vyas Tiperneni , has eclipsed the incumbent by ending the last fundraising quarter with nearly $ 1.3 million cash on hand .
The Republican incumbent spent $ 272,000 on attorneys ' fees during the House committee 's probe .
However , the Arizona @ @ @ @ @ @ @ his side in the district , which encompasses parts of Maricopa County and takes in the northeastern suburbs of Phoenix .
The district , which is among five districts that center around Phoenix , has thousands more registered Republican voters than registered Democrats , according to the latest statistics from the office of Arizona ’ s secretary of state .
If voters in the district feel strongly about Schweikert 's campaign finance violations , which included his former chief of staff overbilling his congressional office for inappropriate expenses such as flights to the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ convince disenchanted Republicans to cross over .

Rep. David Schweikert must now convince Arizona’s 6th Congressional District that he is worthy of reelection after receiving a congressional reprimand for 11 ethics violations over campaign finance manipulations.
The Arizona Republican, who agreed to pay a $50,000 fine after the House Ethics Committee Thursday found that he “erroneously disclosed or failed to disclose” $305,000 in loans or repayment of loans "made or obtained for the benefit of his congressional campaigns" from July 2010 to December 2017, is struggling to raise money for his reelection efforts.
Schweikert’s current money troubles could damage his chances in the Cook Political Report-rated Republican-leaning district, which has sent him to Congress since 2010.
The latest Federal Election Commission filings show that the Arizona Republican has just over $230,000 cash on hand, while the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee-endorsed candidate in the race, Hiiral Vyas Tiperneni, has eclipsed the incumbent by ending the last fundraising quarter with nearly $1.3 million cash on hand. The Republican incumbent spent $272,000 on attorneys' fees during the House committee's probe.
However, the Arizona Republican still has party registration numbers on his side in the district, which encompasses parts of Maricopa County and takes in the northeastern suburbs of Phoenix.
The district, which is among five districts that center around Phoenix, has thousands more registered Republican voters than registered Democrats, according to the latest statistics from the office of Arizona’s secretary of state.
If voters in the district feel strongly about Schweikert's campaign finance violations, which included his former chief of staff overbilling his congressional office for inappropriate expenses such as flights to the Super Bowl, the Democratic nominee must convince disenchanted Republicans to cross over.


thewashingtonexaminer--2020-07-31--Kamala Harris would be Biden's worst pick if he wants to win

Democrats and the Republican operatives raising money from Rachel Maddow viewers all say that Donald Trump is a unique threat and menace to this country .
If Joe Biden believes that , he will choose a running mate who is most likely to help him win the election .
In that case , he should absolutely not pick Kamala Harris .
Biden is currently leading Trump in national polls and swing-state polls largely by staying out of the spotlight and letting Trump ’ s negatives drag him down .
It ’ s an old rule in polling that “ Generic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ generally outpolls every specific Democrat or Republican .
That ’ s especially true when you 're running against an unpopular incumbent prone to public meltdowns .
Biden , hiding in his basement , is as close to a generic Democrat as one can get .
Harris would demolish Biden ’ s ability to make the election simply be about Trump .
Picking her would convince plenty of independents and college-educated Republicans who can ’ t stand Trump that they need to hold their nose and vote against Biden .
Personally , I don @ @ @ @ @ @ @ because that would make Harris much closer to being president — especially considering Biden ’ s age .
Harris is a vindictive culture warrior who would wield the power of the federal government against the people and institutions she doesn ’ t like , including religious schools , gun owners , and local governments .
But Democrats who are fine with that should still not want her as Biden ’ s running mate .
She is a divisive and unlikable figure whose presence on the ticket will energize the Religious Right and sway @ @ @ @ @ @ @ want to take her down a peg , just go back and watch the video of Tulsi Gabbard gutting her like a fish on national television .
Want evidence she is disliked ?
Look at how she tanked in the polls as soon as she got national exposure during the Democratic debates .
Throughout her presidential run , Gallup never found her to have higher favorables than unfavorables .
Her favorability ratings are rising , Newsweek blared in a June headline promoting her as a running mate , but they ’ re still @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , for instance , Harris was underwater with 33 % unfavorable to 25 % favorable .
Compare her to the other supposed finalists for the job : Stacy Abrams has 21 % unfavorables , while Tammy Duckworth has 11 % , and Val Demings had 8 % .
Among Democratic voters in an April poll , Harris had the highest unfavorables of the potential running mates mentioned ( 20 % ) and the highest “ very unfavorable ” ( 7 % ) .
Biden can win by being tolerable and not hated .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ vengeful , and demagogic cop as his running mate undermines that strategy .

Democrats and the Republican operatives raising money from Rachel Maddow viewers all say that Donald Trump is a unique threat and menace to this country. If Joe Biden believes that, he will choose a running mate who is most likely to help him win the election. In that case, he should absolutely not pick Kamala Harris.
Biden is currently leading Trump in national polls and swing-state polls largely by staying out of the spotlight and letting Trump’s negatives drag him down. It’s an old rule in polling that “Generic Democrat” or “Generic Republican” generally outpolls every specific Democrat or Republican. That’s especially true when you're running against an unpopular incumbent prone to public meltdowns. Biden, hiding in his basement, is as close to a generic Democrat as one can get.
Harris would demolish Biden’s ability to make the election simply be about Trump. Picking her would convince plenty of independents and college-educated Republicans who can’t stand Trump that they need to hold their nose and vote against Biden.
Personally, I don’t want Biden to pick Harris because that would make Harris much closer to being president — especially considering Biden’s age. Harris is a vindictive culture warrior who would wield the power of the federal government against the people and institutions she doesn’t like, including religious schools, gun owners, and local governments.
But Democrats who are fine with that should still not want her as Biden’s running mate. She is a divisive and unlikable figure whose presence on the ticket will energize the Religious Right and sway some independents. And any time you want to take her down a peg, just go back and watch the video of Tulsi Gabbard gutting her like a fish on national television.
Want evidence she is disliked? Look at how she tanked in the polls as soon as she got national exposure during the Democratic debates. Throughout her presidential run, Gallup never found her to have higher favorables than unfavorables.
Her favorability ratings are rising, Newsweek blared in a June headline promoting her as a running mate, but they’re still bad. Among independents in that poll, for instance, Harris was underwater with 33% unfavorable to 25% favorable. Compare her to the other supposed finalists for the job: Stacy Abrams has 21% unfavorables, while Tammy Duckworth has 11%, and Val Demings had 8%.
Among Democratic voters in an April poll, Harris had the highest unfavorables of the potential running mates mentioned (20%) and the highest “very unfavorable” (7%).
Biden can win by being tolerable and not hated. Picking a disliked, kinda scary, vengeful, and demagogic cop as his running mate undermines that strategy.


thewashingtonexaminer--2020-07-31--Lack of prominent third-party candidates could benefit Biden more than Trump

The lack of prominent third-party presidential candidates in the 2020 election is simplifying the presidential choice for voters this year , and Joe Biden is more likely to benefit from that dynamic than President Trump .
Four years ago , voters who disliked both Trump and Hillary Clinton voted in waves for third-party alternatives .
In some states , they were thought to be a spoiler for Clinton , because the minor candidates received more votes than the margin between Trump and Clinton in key swing states .
In , for instance , Trump won the state by a razor-thin @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The Libertarian Party nominee , former New Mexico Gov .
Gary Johnson , received 172,136 votes in the state , and Green Party nominee Jill Stein got 51,463 votes .
Johnson and Stein had more political experience and higher profiles than this year ’ s nominees for the parties .
Libertarian Party nominee Jo Jorgensen is a psychology professor at Clemson University who flaunts purist anti-government principles to the point of supporting private citizen ownership of .
( Michigan Rep. Justin Amash launched a presidential exploratory committee for the Libertarian nomination and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ but he later backed out of a run . )
The Green Party nominee is Howie Hawkins , a founder of the party who has run in New York .
J .
Miles Coleman , associate editor of Sabato 's Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics , said that the lower profiles of the candidates , combined with changes in the mood of the electorate , make it less likely that people who have unfavorable views of both Trump and Biden ( sometimes dubbed “ ” ) will cast @ @ @ @ @ @ @ candidate .
In 2016 , found that Trump had a major edge with the 14 % of voters who disliked both him and Clinton , winning them 69 % to 15 % , with about 1 in 7 of those voters choosing a minor party candidate .
This year , several polls have found that those dissatisfied with both Trump and Biden are tilting in the direction of the Democratic presidential nominee rather than the president .
And without prominent third-party candidates , that sets Biden up to benefit more .
“ If @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 's going to be easier for Biden to consolidate that anti-Trump vote , ” Coleman told the Washington Examiner .
Furthermore , it ’ s likely that the portion of voters who dislike both candidates will be smaller this year , creating a smaller pool of likely third-party protest voters .
And the share of undecided voters who might eventually choose a third party is also somewhat smaller in recent matchup polls than in 2016 .
The third-party candidates are still likely to receive votes this year .
However , their lower name @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the mood of the electorate , makes it likely that their vote share will be than in 2016 .
Ballot access challenges brought on by the coronavirus pandemic could also prevent third-party candidates from being spoilers for Trump or Biden this year .
Neither the Libertarian Party nor the Green Party is on the ballot in the critical swing states of Pennsylvania and Wisconsin , though there are legal challenges to change that .
Coleman warned , though , that swing states are not necessarily less competitive for Biden due to less prominent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ third parties is probably an assist to Biden , but the lack of third-party candidates in itself does n't move those states off with the board or anything , ” he said .

The lack of prominent third-party presidential candidates in the 2020 election is simplifying the presidential choice for voters this year, and Joe Biden is more likely to benefit from that dynamic than President Trump.
Four years ago, voters who disliked both Trump and Hillary Clinton voted in waves for third-party alternatives. In some states, they were thought to be a spoiler for Clinton, because the minor candidates received more votes than the margin between Trump and Clinton in key swing states.
In Michigan , for instance, Trump won the state by a razor-thin margin of 10,704 votes more than Clinton. The Libertarian Party nominee, former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson, received 172,136 votes in the state, and Green Party nominee Jill Stein got 51,463 votes.
Johnson and Stein had more political experience and higher profiles than this year’s nominees for the parties.
Libertarian Party nominee Jo Jorgensen is a psychology professor at Clemson University who flaunts purist anti-government principles to the point of supporting private citizen ownership of military tanks . (Michigan Rep. Justin Amash launched a presidential exploratory committee for the Libertarian nomination and would have been a higher-profile candidate, but he later backed out of a run.) The Green Party nominee is Howie Hawkins, a founder of the party who has run 24 unsuccessful campaigns in New York.
J. Miles Coleman, associate editor of Sabato's Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, said that the lower profiles of the candidates, combined with changes in the mood of the electorate, make it less likely that people who have unfavorable views of both Trump and Biden (sometimes dubbed “ the haters ”) will cast a protest vote for a minor party candidate.
In 2016, exit polls found that Trump had a major edge with the 14% of voters who disliked both him and Clinton, winning them 69% to 15%, with about 1 in 7 of those voters choosing a minor party candidate.
This year, several polls have found that those dissatisfied with both Trump and Biden are tilting in the direction of the Democratic presidential nominee rather than the president.
And without prominent third-party candidates, that sets Biden up to benefit more.
“If there are a few candidates, it's going to be easier for Biden to consolidate that anti-Trump vote,” Coleman told the Washington Examiner.
Furthermore, it’s likely that the portion of voters who dislike both candidates will be smaller this year, creating a smaller pool of likely third-party protest voters. And the share of undecided voters who might eventually choose a third party is also somewhat smaller in recent matchup polls than in 2016.
The third-party candidates are still likely to receive votes this year. However, their lower name recognition, combined with a change in the mood of the electorate, makes it likely that their vote share will be significantly lower than in 2016.
Ballot access challenges brought on by the coronavirus pandemic could also prevent third-party candidates from being spoilers for Trump or Biden this year. Neither the Libertarian Party nor the Green Party is on the ballot in the critical swing states of Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, though there are legal challenges to change that.
Coleman warned, though, that swing states are not necessarily less competitive for Biden due to less prominent third parties.
“The lack of third parties is probably an assist to Biden, but the lack of third-party candidates in itself doesn't move those states off with the board or anything,” he said.


thewashingtonexaminer--2020-07-31--'I'm concerned for the world': Kanye West defends emotional anti-abortion speech at campaign rally

Kanye West ripped into critics of his emotional anti-abortion speech at a campaign rally in South Carolina earlier in July .
West , who announced that he is running for president on July 4 , defended openly discussing the personal decision he made with his wife , Kim Kardashian West , to forgo aborting their child North following the couple learning she was pregnant in 2013 .
`` I cried at the thought of aborting my first born and everyone was so concerned about me ...
I ’ m concerned for the world that feels you shouldn ’ t cry @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Friday .
During the viral speech at the rally on July 19 , West broke into tears while telling the crowd about how he `` almost killed '' his daughter .
West recounted how his ideas about abortion had changed upon learning that his father wanted to abort him because he was `` too busy . ''
In a follow-up tweet , West said efforts had been made to `` discredit '' his message after a flurry of media outlets suggested he was suffering from mental issues that prompted his emotional speech .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ D ’ s Distract Discredit Dismiss To Destroy , '' West tweeted .
`` I am quite alright , '' he continued .
`` Take a second and think about what is being projected here . ''
Kardashian West published a letter on Instagram last week that talked about her husband 's bipolar disorder and called on the media and public to show him `` compassion and empathy . ''
This weekend , the two were spotted arguing in a Wendy 's parking lot on the outskirts of Cody , Wyoming , where @ @ @ @ @ @ @ accused his wife of committing adultery with rapper Meek Mill .
West 's bid for the White House continues apace after his campaign team filed petitions to appear on the New Jersey and Missouri presidential ballots this November .
West has already qualified to appear on the Oklahoma presidential ballot .

Kanye West ripped into critics of his emotional anti-abortion speech at a campaign rally in South Carolina earlier in July.
West, who announced that he is running for president on July 4, defended openly discussing the personal decision he made with his wife, Kim Kardashian West, to forgo aborting their child North following the couple learning she was pregnant in 2013.
"I cried at the thought of aborting my first born and everyone was so concerned about me... I’m concerned for the world that feels you shouldn’t cry about this subject," West tweeted Friday.
I cried at the thought of aborting my first born and everyone was so concerned about me... I’m concerned for the world that feels you shouldn’t cry about this subject. — ye (@kanyewest) July 31, 2020
During the viral speech at the rally on July 19, West broke into tears while telling the crowd about how he "almost killed" his daughter. West recounted how his ideas about abortion had changed upon learning that his father wanted to abort him because he was "too busy."
In a follow-up tweet, West said efforts had been made to "discredit" his message after a flurry of media outlets suggested he was suffering from mental issues that prompted his emotional speech.
"There is a tactic of 4 D’s Distract Discredit Dismiss To Destroy," West tweeted.
"I am quite alright," he continued. "Take a second and think about what is being projected here."
Kardashian West published a letter on Instagram last week that talked about her husband's bipolar disorder and called on the media and public to show him "compassion and empathy." This weekend, the two were spotted arguing in a Wendy's parking lot on the outskirts of Cody, Wyoming, where West bought a ranch after he publicly accused his wife of committing adultery with rapper Meek Mill.
West's bid for the White House continues apace after his campaign team filed petitions to appear on the New Jersey and Missouri presidential ballots this November. West has already qualified to appear on the Oklahoma presidential ballot.


thewashingtonexaminer--2020-07-31--Minorities urged to vote Trump: ‘Haven’t Democrats let you down enough?’

Blacks and Latinos , who regularly favor Democrats in elections , are being urged to consider President Trump in the fall election in a new ad campaign that asks , “ Haven ’ t Democrats let you down enough ?
” In two ads targeting Latinos and blacks , the pro-Trump Super PAC Committee to Defend the President is making the case that the party takes minorities for granted and should be open to the plea Trump made to blacks in his 2016 election when he said , “ What do you have to lose by trying something new , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Latino voters notes that presumptive Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden has highlighted his consideration of black women for his running mate .
It makes the case that there are more Hispanics in America who also contribute more to the U.S. economy .
“ Why aren ’ t we good enough for Joe , ” asks the Spanish-language ad that will run on Telemundo in an $ 80,000 buy .
It will also run on social media in Arizona and Florida , states with large Hispanic populations , in an additional $ 20,000 buy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ black women and Sen. Elizabeth Warren for his VP pick , one Hispanic woman , New Mexico Gov .
Michelle Lujan Grisham , is said to be on his list .
The second ad , to run in North Carolina social media , suggests that Democrats have long let African Americans down .
It uses the voice of former President Barack Obama referencing the party ’ s “ plantation politics.
” The total buy of the ads , which begin Friday , is $ 150,000 .
The goal is to boost the percentage @ @ @ @ @ @ @ president .
In 2016 , Trump received 8 % of the black vote and 28 % of the Hispanic vote , according to the Roper Center .
Recent Rasmussen polls show that more people of both minorities support Trump now , possibly due to the pre-coronavirus economic and employment boost they received .
PAC Committee Chairman Ted Harvey told Secrets , “ The Democratic Party has failed black and Hispanic voters time and time again , which even President Obama has acknowledged .
Joe Biden 's refusal to consider a Latino running mate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and he should be ashamed for claiming to champion minority communities .
What those communities really need is four more years of President Trump 's strong , conservative leadership , which has economically empowered millions of black and Hispanic Americans . ''

Blacks and Latinos, who regularly favor Democrats in elections, are being urged to consider President Trump in the fall election in a new ad campaign that asks, “Haven’t Democrats let you down enough?”
In two ads targeting Latinos and blacks, the pro-Trump Super PAC Committee to Defend the President is making the case that the party takes minorities for granted and should be open to the plea Trump made to blacks in his 2016 election when he said, “What do you have to lose by trying something new, like Trump?”
The ad targeting Latino voters notes that presumptive Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden has highlighted his consideration of black women for his running mate. It makes the case that there are more Hispanics in America who also contribute more to the U.S. economy.
“Why aren’t we good enough for Joe,” asks the Spanish-language ad that will run on Telemundo in an $80,000 buy. It will also run on social media in Arizona and Florida, states with large Hispanic populations, in an additional $20,000 buy.
While Biden has focused mostly on black women and Sen. Elizabeth Warren for his VP pick, one Hispanic woman, New Mexico Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham, is said to be on his list.
The second ad, to run in North Carolina social media, suggests that Democrats have long let African Americans down. It uses the voice of former President Barack Obama referencing the party’s “plantation politics.”
The total buy of the ads, which begin Friday, is $150,000.
The goal is to boost the percentage of black and Hispanic voters backing the president. In 2016, Trump received 8% of the black vote and 28% of the Hispanic vote, according to the Roper Center.
Recent Rasmussen polls show that more people of both minorities support Trump now, possibly due to the pre-coronavirus economic and employment boost they received.
PAC Committee Chairman Ted Harvey told Secrets, “The Democratic Party has failed black and Hispanic voters time and time again, which even President Obama has acknowledged. Joe Biden's refusal to consider a Latino running mate is yet another example of that failure, and he should be ashamed for claiming to champion minority communities. What those communities really need is four more years of President Trump's strong, conservative leadership, which has economically empowered millions of black and Hispanic Americans."


thewashingtonexaminer--2020-08-01--Obama emerges as Biden’s hatchet man

Obama emerges as Biden’s hatchet man

In a role reversal from their eight years together in the White House , Barack Obama has become Joe Biden ’ s wingman and , in his understated way , his hatchet man .
The former president ’ s Thursday eulogy for the late Rep. John Lewis , a Georgia Democrat who was active in the civil rights movement , was a case in point .
Obama criticized President Trump and reminded Democrats who they would be letting down if they didn ’ t elect Biden and a Democratic Senate , urging them to jettison the filibuster — a key @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a “ relic of Jim Crow.
” Coming on the heels of Obama ’ s appearance in a video town hall with his former vice president as well as his wife Michelle ’ s high-profile new podcast , the two-term Democrat is poised to have a bigger role than any previous ex-president on the campaign trail , including even Bill Clinton when Hillary was the nominee four years ago .
The circumstances are unusual for a number of reasons .
Obama is nearly 20 years younger than Biden , the presumptive Democratic nominee @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in his prime as a campaigner and orator .
And he excites more passion among critical Democratic voting blocs than Biden can muster at this late stage of his long political career .
It ’ s as if George H.W .
Bush had the benefit of a middle-aged Ronald Reagan hitting the trail for him .
Still , Obama ’ s reemergence elicited divergent responses across the political spectrum .
While he is remembered by most Democrats as a smart and sophisticated figure , an adult in the room , a steady contrast @ @ @ @ @ @ @ impressions Biden has traded on heavily in his own presidential bid — conservatives see the former president as condescending and divisive .
“ If a Republican said the sorts of things at a funeral that Barack Obama is saying , the very reporters currently nursing their erections would be furious about how divisive and partisan the guy was , ” tweeted Erick Erickson , an influential conservative commentator .
“ Obama claimed he was there to eulogize his old friend .
But that ’ s not true , and that ’ s not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ News host Tucker Carlson in his prime-time monologue .
“ Instead , Obama gave a divisive and deeply dishonest campaign speech in church.
” “ The fact that Obama would use a funeral for political purposes underscores why his 8 years in office were so divisive , ” tweeted fellow Fox commentator Lisa Boothe .
“ I suppose we can thank Obama for reminding us what a divisive , manipulative , hateful liar he is , ” tweeted the columnist Caroline Glick .
Social media accounts on the other side of the aisle @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s eulogy and hoping for the restoration of Democratic rule in November .
It ’ s a debate that breaks out frequently when partisan political figures die , even revered ones such as Lewis : Is it better to be unifying or to invoke causes that were important to the deceased ?
But Obama ’ s voice in the 2020 campaign is likely to reverberate well beyond Lewis ’ s funeral .
He already seems to have won converts on the filibuster question , most importantly including Sen. Bernie Sanders .
“ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ we are in now , President Obama can not expect to persuade voters to support Joe Biden and the Democrats , ” said Democratic consultant Douglas Schoen .
“ He can motivate turnout and facilitate participation , which is what his comments about the filibuster are almost certainly designed to do.
” For all the “ when they go low , we go high ” rhetoric of the Obama era , the former president isn ’ t afraid to throw a sharp elbow .
“ I am not sure Obama ’ s politicized @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , but I do think it is interesting to watch Obama ’ s transformation from the candidate of hope and change into the dystopian resistance warrior , ” said conservative strategist Chris Barron .
“ Our view of most presidents , even those who failed in office , tends to improve with time .
Obama might be the first president people will remember less fondly.
” Trump has staked much of his presidency on reversing Obama ’ s policies : repealing Obamacare , ending the nuclear deal with Iran , withdrawing from the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , reinstating restrictions on federal funding of abortion that tend to be lifted by Democratic presidents .
Obama ’ s ridicule of Trump , a prominent “ birther , ” at a White House Correspondents ' Dinner is rumored to have helped stoke Trump ’ s presidential ambitions .
Trump has continued to criticize Obama sharply throughout his four years in office , while Obama seems invested in the defeat of his successor and the election of Biden .
`` George Wallace may be gone .
But we can witness our federal government @ @ @ @ @ @ @ batons against peaceful demonstrators , '' Obama said Thursday .

In a role reversal from their eight years together in the White House, Barack Obama has become Joe Biden’s wingman and, in his understated way, his hatchet man.
The former president’s Thursday eulogy for the late Rep. John Lewis, a Georgia Democrat who was active in the civil rights movement, was a case in point. Obama criticized President Trump and reminded Democrats who they would be letting down if they didn’t elect Biden and a Democratic Senate, urging them to jettison the filibuster — a key institutional obstacle to liberal ambitions — as a “relic of Jim Crow.”
Coming on the heels of Obama’s appearance in a video town hall with his former vice president as well as his wife Michelle’s high-profile new podcast, the two-term Democrat is poised to have a bigger role than any previous ex-president on the campaign trail, including even Bill Clinton when Hillary was the nominee four years ago.
The circumstances are unusual for a number of reasons. Obama is nearly 20 years younger than Biden, the presumptive Democratic nominee. He is still only 58, in his prime as a campaigner and orator. And he excites more passion among critical Democratic voting blocs than Biden can muster at this late stage of his long political career. It’s as if George H.W. Bush had the benefit of a middle-aged Ronald Reagan hitting the trail for him.
Still, Obama’s reemergence elicited divergent responses across the political spectrum. While he is remembered by most Democrats as a smart and sophisticated figure, an adult in the room, a steady contrast to the chaotic Trump administration — all impressions Biden has traded on heavily in his own presidential bid — conservatives see the former president as condescending and divisive.
“If a Republican said the sorts of things at a funeral that Barack Obama is saying, the very reporters currently nursing their erections would be furious about how divisive and partisan the guy was,” tweeted Erick Erickson, an influential conservative commentator.
“Obama claimed he was there to eulogize his old friend. But that’s not true, and that’s not what he did,” said Fox News host Tucker Carlson in his prime-time monologue. “Instead, Obama gave a divisive and deeply dishonest campaign speech in church.”
“The fact that Obama would use a funeral for political purposes underscores why his 8 years in office were so divisive,” tweeted fellow Fox commentator Lisa Boothe. “I suppose we can thank Obama for reminding us what a divisive, manipulative, hateful liar he is,” tweeted the columnist Caroline Glick.
Social media accounts on the other side of the aisle recounted being moved to tears by Obama’s eulogy and hoping for the restoration of Democratic rule in November.
It’s a debate that breaks out frequently when partisan political figures die, even revered ones such as Lewis: Is it better to be unifying or to invoke causes that were important to the deceased? But Obama’s voice in the 2020 campaign is likely to reverberate well beyond Lewis’s funeral. He already seems to have won converts on the filibuster question, most importantly including Sen. Bernie Sanders.
“In as highly charged an environment as we are in now, President Obama cannot expect to persuade voters to support Joe Biden and the Democrats,” said Democratic consultant Douglas Schoen. “He can motivate turnout and facilitate participation, which is what his comments about the filibuster are almost certainly designed to do.”
For all the “when they go low, we go high” rhetoric of the Obama era, the former president isn’t afraid to throw a sharp elbow.
“I am not sure Obama’s politicized eulogy for John Lewis will motivate Republicans, but I do think it is interesting to watch Obama’s transformation from the candidate of hope and change into the dystopian resistance warrior,” said conservative strategist Chris Barron. “Our view of most presidents, even those who failed in office, tends to improve with time. Obama might be the first president people will remember less fondly.”
Trump has staked much of his presidency on reversing Obama’s policies: repealing Obamacare, ending the nuclear deal with Iran, withdrawing from the Transpacific Partnership and the Paris climate accord, reinstating restrictions on federal funding of abortion that tend to be lifted by Democratic presidents. Obama’s ridicule of Trump, a prominent “birther,” at a White House Correspondents' Dinner is rumored to have helped stoke Trump’s presidential ambitions.
Trump has continued to criticize Obama sharply throughout his four years in office, while Obama seems invested in the defeat of his successor and the election of Biden. "George Wallace may be gone. But we can witness our federal government sending agents to use tear gas and batons against peaceful demonstrators," Obama said Thursday.


thewashingtonexaminer--2020-08-02--Three weeks out, plan is to keep Republican National Convention closed to press

No journalists will be allowed in the room when President Trump is renominated by the Republican Party , according to the plan three weeks out from the convention .
The plan to keep the proceedings closed from the media , a first in modern history , was revealed by a spokesman for the convention who told the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette that the party expects all events in Charlotte , North Carolina , later this month to be restricted because of the coronavirus .
`` [ W ] e are planning for all of the Charlotte activities to be closed press : @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 24th given the health restrictions and limitations in place in the state , '' the spokesman said .
`` We are happy to let you know if this changes , but we are working within the parameters set before us by state and local guidelines regarding the number of people who can attend events . ''
The report noted that the spokesman was unable to say whether C-SPAN would be allowed to air the event , but a GOP official told CNN that parts of the proceedings , including the vote by delegates @ @ @ @ @ @ @ livestreamed .
An RNC official later stressed to the Associated Press that the decision to make the convention closed-press is not final .
Trump was set to accept the nomination in Jacksonville , but the Florida portion of the Republican National Convention proceedings , already disrupted by the coronavirus pandemic , was scrapped after there were spikes of COVID-19 cases in the state .
The number of delegates scheduled to appear at the convention has been cut back ( 336 , down from 2,550 ) , alternative delegates and guests have been disinvited @ @ @ @ @ @ @ including Texas Gov .
Greg Abbott , have said they will not attend .
Vice President Mike Pence said last week that Trump would accept the nomination in Charlotte on Aug. 24 .
Former Vice President Joe Biden is poised to accept the Democratic Party 's nomination during a pared-back convention in Milwaukee from Aug. 17 to Aug. 20 .

No journalists will be allowed in the room when President Trump is renominated by the Republican Party, according to the plan three weeks out from the convention.
The plan to keep the proceedings closed from the media, a first in modern history, was revealed by a spokesman for the convention who told the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette that the party expects all events in Charlotte, North Carolina, later this month to be restricted because of the coronavirus.
"[W]e are planning for all of the Charlotte activities to be closed press: Friday, August 21 — Monday, 24th given the health restrictions and limitations in place in the state," the spokesman said. "We are happy to let you know if this changes, but we are working within the parameters set before us by state and local guidelines regarding the number of people who can attend events."
The report noted that the spokesman was unable to say whether C-SPAN would be allowed to air the event, but a GOP official told CNN that parts of the proceedings, including the vote by delegates to formally nominate Trump, will be livestreamed.
An RNC official later stressed to the Associated Press that the decision to make the convention closed-press is not final.
Trump was set to accept the nomination in Jacksonville, but the Florida portion of the Republican National Convention proceedings, already disrupted by the coronavirus pandemic, was scrapped after there were spikes of COVID-19 cases in the state. The number of delegates scheduled to appear at the convention has been cut back (336, down from 2,550), alternative delegates and guests have been disinvited, and already some high-profile Republicans, including Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, have said they will not attend.
Vice President Mike Pence said last week that Trump would accept the nomination in Charlotte on Aug. 24.
Former Vice President Joe Biden is poised to accept the Democratic Party's nomination during a pared-back convention in Milwaukee from Aug. 17 to Aug. 20.


thewashingtonexaminer--2020-08-02--GOP Sen. Sasse zips his criticism of Trump to fend off primary threat

Sen. Ben Sasse is firebombing President Trump on key domestic and foreign policy issues , criticism that accelerated in July after the Nebraska Republican had muted their differences leading up to his contested spring primary .
On July 17 , Sasse accused Trump of “ strategic incompetence ” that is “ Jimmy Carter-level weak ” for floating a military pullout from South Korea amid tensions with China and North Korea .
Ten days later , he described negotiations between Congress and the White House on a coronavirus relief package as “ Democrats and Trumpers competing to outspend each other.
” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Trump ’ s troop withdrawal from Germany was “ weak ” and revealed a “ lack of strategic understanding.
” The criticism continued Thursday when the senator rapped Trump for suggesting the Nov. 3 general election should be delayed because of looming problems with mail-in voting .
This string of zingers amounts to a summer revival of Sasse ’ s periodic tongue-lashings that date to the beginning of Trump ’ s term but were put on hiatus after he accepted the president ’ s endorsement for renomination in Nebraska ’ s May 12 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to comment for this story .
But his advisers , pointing to actions Sasse took during his primary campaign , reject the notion that the senator censored his criticism of the president in a cynical ploy to maintain the support of his state ’ s pro-Trump , Republican electorate and defeat primary challenger Matt Innis .
Sasse declined Trump ’ s invitation to become an honorary chairman of his reelection campaign in Nebraska , and he ran a television advertisement on the eve of the primary , highlighting their occasional disagreements .
“ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of folks these past six years , from the radical left , to , every now and then , even the president — of his own party , ” the voice-over in the spot said , as a picture of Trump , accompanied by a tweet in which the president took a swipe at Sasse , flashed across the screen .
Some Republican primary voters were not amused .
The senator bested the underfunded and outmanned Innis but lost seven counties and 25 % of the vote to his challenger in the western @ @ @ @ @ @ @ voters are especially supportive of Trump .
To Sasse supporters , the primary results are yet more proof that the senator has never took it easy on the president .
Sasse won his first Senate race in 2014 as a conservative darling , winning a tough primary with the backing of prominent conservative advocacy groups .
They trusted Sasse to stick to principles on issues and events that could not be foreseen and might arise in the future .
Two years later , Sasse was in Iowa campaigning against Trump in the Republican @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was there to support any candidate but the man who became the eventual nominee , including Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas .
Cruz also has lately established some political independence from the White House , possibly in anticipation of mounting a second presidential bid in 2024 .
Sasse 's opposition to Trump continued in Washington after the inauguration , sparking talk that Sasse might challenge the president in the GOP primary this year .
Sasse opted to run for reelection .
But in renewing his sharp denunciations of Trump this summer , at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Democratic nominee Joe Biden jumping out to a substantial lead ahead of the president — a move that has not gone unnoticed by Republicans in Nebraska , Sasse has generated national speculation he might run for president in 2024 .
The senator is not doing anything to downplay such talk — and that ’ s just fine with some Republicans .
“ Ben Sasse is a true conservative in the mold of Ronald Reagan , ” Republican strategist Jim Dornan said .
“ When he speaks on an issue , he does it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ . ''

Sen. Ben Sasse is firebombing President Trump on key domestic and foreign policy issues, criticism that accelerated in July after the Nebraska Republican had muted their differences leading up to his contested spring primary.
On July 17, Sasse accused Trump of “strategic incompetence” that is “Jimmy Carter-level weak” for floating a military pullout from South Korea amid tensions with China and North Korea. Ten days later, he described negotiations between Congress and the White House on a coronavirus relief package as “Democrats and Trumpers competing to outspend each other.” The very next day, Sasse said Trump’s troop withdrawal from Germany was “weak” and revealed a “lack of strategic understanding.”
The criticism continued Thursday when the senator rapped Trump for suggesting the Nov. 3 general election should be delayed because of looming problems with mail-in voting. This string of zingers amounts to a summer revival of Sasse’s periodic tongue-lashings that date to the beginning of Trump’s term but were put on hiatus after he accepted the president’s endorsement for renomination in Nebraska’s May 12 primary.
Sasse’s office declined to comment for this story.
But his advisers, pointing to actions Sasse took during his primary campaign, reject the notion that the senator censored his criticism of the president in a cynical ploy to maintain the support of his state’s pro-Trump, Republican electorate and defeat primary challenger Matt Innis. Sasse declined Trump’s invitation to become an honorary chairman of his reelection campaign in Nebraska, and he ran a television advertisement on the eve of the primary, highlighting their occasional disagreements.
“He’s ticked off a lot of folks these past six years, from the radical left, to, every now and then, even the president — of his own party,” the voice-over in the spot said, as a picture of Trump, accompanied by a tweet in which the president took a swipe at Sasse, flashed across the screen.
Some Republican primary voters were not amused. The senator bested the underfunded and outmanned Innis but lost seven counties and 25% of the vote to his challenger in the western half of the state, where GOP voters are especially supportive of Trump. To Sasse supporters, the primary results are yet more proof that the senator has never took it easy on the president.
Sasse won his first Senate race in 2014 as a conservative darling, winning a tough primary with the backing of prominent conservative advocacy groups. They trusted Sasse to stick to principles on issues and events that could not be foreseen and might arise in the future.
Two years later, Sasse was in Iowa campaigning against Trump in the Republican presidential primary. The senators said he was there to support any candidate but the man who became the eventual nominee, including Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas. Cruz also has lately established some political independence from the White House, possibly in anticipation of mounting a second presidential bid in 2024. Sasse's opposition to Trump continued in Washington after the inauguration, sparking talk that Sasse might challenge the president in the GOP primary this year.
Sasse opted to run for reelection. But in renewing his sharp denunciations of Trump this summer, at the same time that polls show presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden jumping out to a substantial lead ahead of the president — a move that has not gone unnoticed by Republicans in Nebraska, Sasse has generated national speculation he might run for president in 2024. The senator is not doing anything to downplay such talk — and that’s just fine with some Republicans.
“Ben Sasse is a true conservative in the mold of Ronald Reagan,” Republican strategist Jim Dornan said. “When he speaks on an issue, he does it with his heart in the right place."


thewashingtonexaminer--2020-08-02--Will the Wokes outdo the Wide Awakes?

Will the Wokes outdo the Wide Awakes?

PITTSBURGH — On a clear , warm summer evening here in July 1860 , nearly 10,000 young men poured into what was then Allegheny City ’ s Diamond Square from the doorsteps of their different organizing clubs , all in an effort to throw their support behind the men who were running locally as officers for the newly formed Republican ticket in this booming industrial region .
Brass bands played , filling the air with music .
So did the spectacle of warm , flickering light as the orderly parade of men carrying brightly illuminated torches joined together at different @ @ @ @ @ @ @ meeting .
The local reporter for the then-Pittsburgh Gazette noted in its story that “ the crowd was so dense our reporter could not catch everything that was said ” by the newly elected officers of the party .
All were members of the Wide Awakes , a newly formed political movement that swept the nation ever so briefly , yet effectively , in the waning months before the 1860 presidential election .
They were adamantly opposed to the nativist Know-Nothing Party , had moved on from the Whig Party , were deeply @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Abraham Lincoln and the new Republican Party .
The club formed in February 1860 , when the famed Kentucky orator , abolitionist , and then-state Rep. Cassius Clay was set to give a speech in Hartford in support of the Republican candidate of Connecticut .
The young Republicans formed a torchlight procession to escort Clay in outfits of black cambric capes and caps to shield themselves from the dripping kerosene .
The Democrats pounced on their parade , calling them the `` fifty infants whose mama ’ s didn ’ t know they @ @ @ @ @ @ @ keep them from doing this again , they should have been given a bar of candy and sent home .
They saw the group as an extension of the failed Know-Nothings , and the Chicago Tribune reported that they brushed off their impact with a string of jeers and sneers .
They were so wrong .
The spectacle that the Hartford event made led to the formation of a club within weeks .
They made a constitution ( the wearing of caps and capes were part of it ) , formed chapters across @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , '' and elected officers .
By the summer , their marches were renowned ; their rejection of the nativism of the Know-Nothings was as strident as their support for Lincoln and the Republican Party .
Hundreds of marches were held across the North , hundreds of thousands joined local chapters , and their powerful impact on the election became legend .
“ The Wide Awakes arose , as is so often the case with new ‘ outsider ’ movements , in a time of great stress , change , and confusion , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ science professor at Loyola Marymount University .
In such times , many who feel lost and out of place search for something to cling to — something that gives them a sense of place , belonging , and purpose .
They want order , security , and place ( home ) .
The Wide Awakes were not a civic organization like the Elks ; their motivation was politics .
As each chapter formed and grew , another chapter would form and grow , often competing with each other in their displays of music @ @ @ @ @ @ @ members .
They hit a fever pitch in November 1860 when Abraham Lincoln was elected president .
Within weeks , South Carolina seceded from the Union ; before Lincoln was sworn in , a new Confederate government was formed .
Their political mission accomplished , the members of the Wide Awakes were among the first to join the military , and their movement was over .
They came , they saw , they conquered , and they disappeared , wrote the Chicago Tribune .
They weren ’ t wrong — movements in American @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , but their impact always remains for generations , even if we ’ ve forgotten the names of their causes .
Today ’ s Wokes have little in common with the Wide Awakes .
The Wokes use social media performance theater not to persuade people to join them , but instead to tell people how perfect they are and how awful , bigoted , stupid , or backward someone else is .
While both movements took to the street using chants and music to inspire , Wokes wish to inspire themselves .
Wide @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cheer the defunding of police forces and the destruction of property or history across the country .
“ The Wide Awakes were a quasi-respectable group adjunct to the newly formed Republican Party , meant to be a telling contrast to the Democratic Party ’ s ill-manned counterparts , ” explained Eldon Eisenach , a University of Tulsa political science emeritus professor .
Genovese said that today , as in the 1850s , momentous changes led to social dislocation and confusion : “ And the young , who lack accomplishments and opportunities to shine @ @ @ @ @ @ @ At that time , young citizens were hard to reach , unlike today with social media , and so , they needed sparkle and splash , parades and uniforms , to set them apart and provide them with an identity.
” Quite understandably , Lincoln and others used these groups to drum up support , to disrupt the opposition , to display strength and unity , and to go out and work the campaign trail .
“ They were a ready-made political asset , so why not use them ?
” said Genovese @ @ @ @ @ @ @ distance from them .
He saw them as an asset but one that could turn into a liability , so he often kept them at arm ’ s length .
Remember , in a campaign , everybody loves a parade .
But the parade could turn into a mob , so while for the most part the Wide Awakes behaved , not all behaved.
” To date , Joe Biden hasn ’ t just kept the Wokes at a respectable distance .
Most of the Democratic Party is unconcerned by the Wokes , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ `` myth '' and Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi shrugging them off , saying “ people do what they do ” when discussing riots and the destruction of private property .
The long-lasting impact of the Wide Awakes has largely been forgotten .
It will be a while before we know the long-term effect of the Wokes , but we do know our cultural curators have bent to their demands , changing their products , teams , or mascots .
Soon enough , though , we 'll see how the Wokes influence @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Election Day .

PITTSBURGH — On a clear, warm summer evening here in July 1860, nearly 10,000 young men poured into what was then Allegheny City’s Diamond Square from the doorsteps of their different organizing clubs, all in an effort to throw their support behind the men who were running locally as officers for the newly formed Republican ticket in this booming industrial region.
Brass bands played, filling the air with music. So did the spectacle of warm, flickering light as the orderly parade of men carrying brightly illuminated torches joined together at different intersections on their way to the outdoor meeting. The local reporter for the then-Pittsburgh Gazette noted in its story that “the crowd was so dense our reporter could not catch everything that was said” by the newly elected officers of the party.
Wide Awakes hold a procession in New York on Oct. 3, 1860. (Harper's Weekly via Library of Congress)
All were members of the Wide Awakes, a newly formed political movement that swept the nation ever so briefly, yet effectively, in the waning months before the 1860 presidential election. They were adamantly opposed to the nativist Know-Nothing Party, had moved on from the Whig Party, were deeply against slavery, and were deeply for Abraham Lincoln and the new Republican Party.
The club formed in February 1860, when the famed Kentucky orator, abolitionist, and then-state Rep. Cassius Clay was set to give a speech in Hartford in support of the Republican candidate of Connecticut. The young Republicans formed a torchlight procession to escort Clay in outfits of black cambric capes and caps to shield themselves from the dripping kerosene.
The Democrats pounced on their parade, calling them the "fifty infants whose mama’s didn’t know they were out” and suggesting that to keep them from doing this again, they should have been given a bar of candy and sent home.
They saw the group as an extension of the failed Know-Nothings, and the Chicago Tribune reported that they brushed off their impact with a string of jeers and sneers.
They were so wrong.
The spectacle that the Hartford event made led to the formation of a club within weeks. They made a constitution (the wearing of caps and capes were part of it), formed chapters across the country for their "marching club," and elected officers.
By the summer, their marches were renowned; their rejection of the nativism of the Know-Nothings was as strident as their support for Lincoln and the Republican Party. Hundreds of marches were held across the North, hundreds of thousands joined local chapters, and their powerful impact on the election became legend.
“The Wide Awakes arose, as is so often the case with new ‘outsider’ movements, in a time of great stress, change, and confusion,” explained Michael Genovese, a political science professor at Loyola Marymount University.
In such times, many who feel lost and out of place search for something to cling to — something that gives them a sense of place, belonging, and purpose. They want order, security, and place (home).
The Wide Awakes were not a civic organization like the Elks; their motivation was politics. As each chapter formed and grew, another chapter would form and grow, often competing with each other in their displays of music, drill formation, and numbers of members.
They hit a fever pitch in November 1860 when Abraham Lincoln was elected president. Within weeks, South Carolina seceded from the Union; before Lincoln was sworn in, a new Confederate government was formed. Their political mission accomplished, the members of the Wide Awakes were among the first to join the military, and their movement was over.
They came, they saw, they conquered, and they disappeared, wrote the Chicago Tribune. They weren’t wrong — movements in American politics often don’t last long, but their impact always remains for generations, even if we’ve forgotten the names of their causes.
Today’s Wokes have little in common with the Wide Awakes. The Wokes use social media performance theater not to persuade people to join them, but instead to tell people how perfect they are and how awful, bigoted, stupid, or backward someone else is.
While both movements took to the street using chants and music to inspire, Wokes wish to inspire themselves. Wide Awakes wanted to inspire others.
Wokes cheer the defunding of police forces and the destruction of property or history across the country.
“The Wide Awakes were a quasi-respectable group adjunct to the newly formed Republican Party, meant to be a telling contrast to the Democratic Party’s ill-manned counterparts,” explained Eldon Eisenach, a University of Tulsa political science emeritus professor.
Genovese said that today, as in the 1850s, momentous changes led to social dislocation and confusion: “And the young, who lack accomplishments and opportunities to shine, hunger for meaning and inclusion. At that time, young citizens were hard to reach, unlike today with social media, and so, they needed sparkle and splash, parades and uniforms, to set them apart and provide them with an identity.”
Quite understandably, Lincoln and others used these groups to drum up support, to disrupt the opposition, to display strength and unity, and to go out and work the campaign trail.
“They were a ready-made political asset, so why not use them?” said Genovese. “But Lincoln also kept his distance from them. He saw them as an asset but one that could turn into a liability, so he often kept them at arm’s length. Remember, in a campaign, everybody loves a parade. But the parade could turn into a mob, so while for the most part the Wide Awakes behaved, not all behaved.”
To date, Joe Biden hasn’t just kept the Wokes at a respectable distance. Most of the Democratic Party is unconcerned by the Wokes, with Rep. Jerry Nadler calling them a "myth" and Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi shrugging them off, saying “people do what they do” when discussing riots and the destruction of private property.
The long-lasting impact of the Wide Awakes has largely been forgotten. It will be a while before we know the long-term effect of the Wokes, but we do know our cultural curators have bent to their demands, changing their products, teams, or mascots. Soon enough, though, we'll see how the Wokes influence voters, positively or negatively, come Election Day.


thewashingtonexaminer--2020-08-02--Nate Silver: Bush v. Gore repeat possible in 2020

Could there be another Bush v. Gore situation in 2020 ?
Polling guru Nate Silver said he thinks so .
Roughly 92 days out from Election Day , former Vice President Joe Biden leads President Trump by a wide margin in the polls .
Should the race tighten just a little bit , Silver , the editor-in-chief of FiveThirtyEight , predicts a perfect storm of problems in some states with an expected increase in absentee voting and restrictions at voting locations because of the coronavirus that could result in the race not being called on Nov. 3 .
During an @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that there may even be a repeat of the 2000 Supreme Court ruling that effectively decided the presidency for George W. Bush a whole month after Election Day .
`` All of that could lead to poll hours being extended and the possibility of litigation over absentee ballots , '' Silver said .
`` Look , nobody wants a replay of Bush v. Gore , but when you have an election in the middle of a global pandemic with a second wave , in fact , possible in the fall , anything can @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on mail-in voting and even suggested that the November election be postponed `` until people can properly , securely and safely vote . ''
The date of the election is set by federal law , and the Constitution gives Congress the power to change the date .
Silver said in June that he sees `` a lot of issues '' with Trump 's quest for reelection , so much so that a `` landslide '' for Biden is possible .
Last week , he said that the incumbent is `` clearly in trouble @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the COVID-19 situation means he does n't `` buy that Trump 's fate is sealed . ''

Could there be another Bush v. Gore situation in 2020? Polling guru Nate Silver said he thinks so.
Roughly 92 days out from Election Day, former Vice President Joe Biden leads President Trump by a wide margin in the polls.
Should the race tighten just a little bit, Silver, the editor-in-chief of FiveThirtyEight, predicts a perfect storm of problems in some states with an expected increase in absentee voting and restrictions at voting locations because of the coronavirus that could result in the race not being called on Nov. 3.
During an appearance Sunday on ABC, Silver said that there may even be a repeat of the 2000 Supreme Court ruling that effectively decided the presidency for George W. Bush a whole month after Election Day.
"All of that could lead to poll hours being extended and the possibility of litigation over absentee ballots," Silver said. "Look, nobody wants a replay of Bush v. Gore, but when you have an election in the middle of a global pandemic with a second wave, in fact, possible in the fall, anything can happen."
Trump has cast doubt on mail-in voting and even suggested that the November election be postponed "until people can properly, securely and safely vote." The date of the election is set by federal law, and the Constitution gives Congress the power to change the date.
Silver said in June that he sees "a lot of issues" with Trump's quest for reelection, so much so that a "landslide" for Biden is possible. Last week, he said that the incumbent is "clearly in trouble" but said that a turnaround in the COVID-19 situation means he doesn't "buy that Trump's fate is sealed."


thewashingtonexaminer--2020-08-03--Bad polls puncture Trump message of strength

President Trump ’ s image of political invincibility , critical to his influence with congressional Republicans and grassroots conservatives , is under assault amid a sweltering summer of gloomy public opinion polls .
Trump has trailed presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden for months — nationally and in an expanding array of battleground states .
A sustained struggle like that would test any presidential contender and raise questions about his or her campaign .
But for Trump , the spate of discouraging data presents deeper challenges .
It makes the president look vulnerable , undermining his brand as a strong leader @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and keeps congressional Republicans in line .
“ The president measures himself by his numbers — stock market , TV ratings — and he is behind , ” said veteran Republican strategist Ed Rollins , who runs Great America PAC , a pro-Trump super PAC .
“ There is a psychological effect .
It does affect supporters .
People want to be with a winner.
” A GOP operative who works with Republicans in Congress said Trump ’ s slippage is beginning to erode his standing on Capitol Hill .
With as many @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will only get worse if fear among Senate Republicans grows that the president might be a drag on keeping their 53-seat majority .
“ He ’ s got to show some strength or these senators will keep deserting him , making him a lame duck even before the election , ” the operative said .
Throughout June and July , surveys piled up showing the president ’ s support plummeting amid the coronavirus , a recession , and civil unrest .
Privately , close aides and other political supporters have urged Trump to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Trump is dismissive and casts doubt on the information .
“ We are going to win the 2020 Election , BIG # MAGA , ” the president tweeted on Thursday .
The president ’ s response is hardly unique .
Discrediting problematic polling is a time-honored tradition for political campaigns .
Weak candidates have a hard time raising money and attracting volunteers for field operations .
Most importantly , voters are less motivated to show up and support them on Election Day if they do not think it matters .
Still , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ undermine the polls is unusually robust .
The campaign has issued multiple memoranda and statements knocking the data in an offensive that recently culminated an hourlong , virtual briefing for reporters .
During the Zoom presentation , Trump campaign manager Bill Stepien dissected surveys from nearly every battleground state , questioning their veracity and reliability and making comparisons to 2016 , when some polls underestimated the president ’ s strength .
“ We know here at our headquarters what our internal numbers say , and it ’ s why we have the , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ our plan , ” Stepien said .
“ National polls are viewed around here as useless.
” Trump defeated Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton four years ago after lagging behind her for much of the campaign , nationally and in polls of key battleground states .
Biden ’ s lead over the president is more substantial , and has proven more durable , than Clinton ’ s .
But the Republican base is rejecting the data because they believe the polling in 2016 grossly misfired .
That has led many Republican insiders to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ impact of bad polling do not apply to Trump .
Their confidence in this dynamic is compounded by their view that grassroots Republicans distrust the media generally and are inclined to side with Trump when he claims surveys with the former vice president beating him are wrong or faked .
“ Frankly , if I were him , I might consider calling on his supporters to stop answering any and all polling calls , '' said Scott Jennings , a GOP operative in Kentucky .
`` He can spend the rest of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ he could just destroy the polling news cycles for the next two months by keeping his people from participating .
”

President Trump’s image of political invincibility, critical to his influence with congressional Republicans and grassroots conservatives, is under assault amid a sweltering summer of gloomy public opinion polls.
Trump has trailed presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden for months — nationally and in an expanding array of battleground states. A sustained struggle like that would test any presidential contender and raise questions about his or her campaign. But for Trump, the spate of discouraging data presents deeper challenges. It makes the president look vulnerable, undermining his brand as a strong leader, which appeals to the GOP base and keeps congressional Republicans in line.
“The president measures himself by his numbers — stock market, TV ratings — and he is behind,” said veteran Republican strategist Ed Rollins, who runs Great America PAC, a pro-Trump super PAC. “There is a psychological effect. It does affect supporters. People want to be with a winner.”
A GOP operative who works with Republicans in Congress said Trump’s slippage is beginning to erode his standing on Capitol Hill. With as many as seven GOP seats in play, it will only get worse if fear among Senate Republicans grows that the president might be a drag on keeping their 53-seat majority. “He’s got to show some strength or these senators will keep deserting him, making him a lame duck even before the election,” the operative said.
Throughout June and July, surveys piled up showing the president’s support plummeting amid the coronavirus, a recession, and civil unrest. Privately, close aides and other political supporters have urged Trump to make adjustments. Publicly, at least, Trump is dismissive and casts doubt on the information. “We are going to win the 2020 Election, BIG #MAGA,” the president tweeted on Thursday.
The president’s response is hardly unique. Discrediting problematic polling is a time-honored tradition for political campaigns. Weak candidates have a hard time raising money and attracting volunteers for field operations. Most importantly, voters are less motivated to show up and support them on Election Day if they do not think it matters.
Still, the Trump campaign’s effort to undermine the polls is unusually robust. The campaign has issued multiple memoranda and statements knocking the data in an offensive that recently culminated an hourlong, virtual briefing for reporters. During the Zoom presentation, Trump campaign manager Bill Stepien dissected surveys from nearly every battleground state, questioning their veracity and reliability and making comparisons to 2016, when some polls underestimated the president’s strength.
“We know here at our headquarters what our internal numbers say, and it’s why we have the, and exude the, quiet confidence in our plan,” Stepien said. “National polls are viewed around here as useless.”
Trump defeated Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton four years ago after lagging behind her for much of the campaign, nationally and in polls of key battleground states.
Biden’s lead over the president is more substantial, and has proven more durable, than Clinton’s. But the Republican base is rejecting the data because they believe the polling in 2016 grossly misfired. That has led many Republican insiders to conclude that the typical concerns about the impact of bad polling do not apply to Trump.
Their confidence in this dynamic is compounded by their view that grassroots Republicans distrust the media generally and are inclined to side with Trump when he claims surveys with the former vice president beating him are wrong or faked.
“Frankly, if I were him, I might consider calling on his supporters to stop answering any and all polling calls," said Scott Jennings, a GOP operative in Kentucky. "He can spend the rest of the election fighting off polling stories, or he could just destroy the polling news cycles for the next two months by keeping his people from participating.”