thewashingtonexaminer--2020-08-27--Pollsters undercount Republican voters in their models: Jared Kushner

White House senior adviser Jared Kushner said public polls have underrepresented Republican voters in their models and cited the `` shy '' Trump vote as reasons why President Trump could win on Election Day .
`` We have to look at what 's the turnout , '' said Kushner , who is broadly viewed as the campaign 's de facto chief of staff , during a live interview with Politico Thursday morning .
`` If you look at a lot of the public polling , you 're using 24 % Republican turnout , which is ridiculous .
In '18 , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ '' He pointed to the Brexit referendum and the 2016 election as two instances of this miscalculation .
`` They undercounted by about 3 million how many people were going to vote to 'leave , ' and the reason why is they just had the turnout all wrong , '' Kushner said .
`` They undercounted a lot of low propensity voters .
When you think about the last election , I think the same thing happened .
`` I also think you 've got a lot of shy Trump voters out there @ @ @ @ @ @ @ n't use likely voters in their sample . ''
Public polls have consistently showed Trump trailing Democratic nominee Joe Biden , including in states the president won in 2016 .
The campaign 's voter file , a database of information used to model turnout and persuasion , was “ many times ” the 10-million-person sample the campaign used to model turnout in 2016 , Kushner said .
One of those models showed them winning against Hillary Clinton on Election Day .
Back then , they noticed low-propensity voters waiting for 24 hours to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , he said .
`` And so we figured out [ if ] they were gon na wait online , they would probably vote as well .
So we built two different turnout models . ''
`` We were wary , '' he added .
`` We do n't want to believe our own BS , but we basically would do the sample , and then we 'd run it through two models . ''
This time , Trump 2020 has invested in `` data and building out staff , '' Kushner said @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are , and we believe there 's plenty of them out there in order for the president to win . ''
The Trump campaign is hoping to flip states that it did n't win in 2016 .
`` I think last week , we made over a million phone calls , '' Kushner said .
`` We know who the swing voters are .
We 've been testing over the last six months a lot of the messages that help persuade them . ''
In Minnesota , where Trump lost by a small @ @ @ @ @ @ @ established a `` robust '' operation .
`` We feel like it 's very competitive , '' Kushner said of the state .
Voters `` do n't like what they 're seeing in Minneapolis with the riots . ''
The mayor of Eveleth , Minnesota , a lifelong Democrat who addressed the Republican National Convention on Tuesday , has thrown his support behind Trump , and the campaign expects the same from `` a lot of traditional Democrats . ''
`` The American people like the president 's platform .
They like his @ @ @ @ @ @ @ can be bringing jobs back to America from overseas , '' Kushner said .
`` They want law and order .
They want somebody to keep your community safe .
`` At the end of the day , people will have to decide who you want negotiating for you against China and other countries .
And President Trump 's the guy who — he 's a tough guy , but he 's gon na be their tough guy . ''

White House senior adviser Jared Kushner said public polls have underrepresented Republican voters in their models and cited the "shy" Trump vote as reasons why President Trump could win on Election Day.
"We have to look at what's the turnout," said Kushner, who is broadly viewed as the campaign's de facto chief of staff, during a live interview with Politico Thursday morning. "If you look at a lot of the public polling, you're using 24% Republican turnout, which is ridiculous. In '18, '16, we had 33%."
He pointed to the Brexit referendum and the 2016 election as two instances of this miscalculation.
"They undercounted by about 3 million how many people were going to vote to 'leave,' and the reason why is they just had the turnout all wrong," Kushner said. "They undercounted a lot of low propensity voters. When you think about the last election, I think the same thing happened.
"I also think you've got a lot of shy Trump voters out there, and a lot of people don't use likely voters in their sample."
Public polls have consistently showed Trump trailing Democratic nominee Joe Biden, including in states the president won in 2016.
The campaign's voter file, a database of information used to model turnout and persuasion, was “many times” the 10-million-person sample the campaign used to model turnout in 2016, Kushner said. One of those models showed them winning against Hillary Clinton on Election Day.
Back then, they noticed low-propensity voters waiting for 24 hours to secure a ticket to a Trump rally, he said. "And so we figured out [if] they were gonna wait online, they would probably vote as well. So we built two different turnout models."
"We were wary," he added. "We don't want to believe our own BS, but we basically would do the sample, and then we'd run it through two models."
This time, Trump 2020 has invested in "data and building out staff," Kushner said. "We know who our voters are, and we believe there's plenty of them out there in order for the president to win."
The Trump campaign is hoping to flip states that it didn't win in 2016.
"I think last week, we made over a million phone calls," Kushner said. "We know who the swing voters are. We've been testing over the last six months a lot of the messages that help persuade them."
In Minnesota, where Trump lost by a small margin in 2016, Trump 2020 has established a "robust" operation. "We feel like it's very competitive," Kushner said of the state. Voters "don't like what they're seeing in Minneapolis with the riots."
The mayor of Eveleth, Minnesota, a lifelong Democrat who addressed the Republican National Convention on Tuesday, has thrown his support behind Trump, and the campaign expects the same from "a lot of traditional Democrats."
"The American people like the president's platform. They like his policies. They want a president who can be bringing jobs back to America from overseas," Kushner said. "They want law and order. They want somebody to keep your community safe.
"At the end of the day, people will have to decide who you want negotiating for you against China and other countries. And President Trump's the guy who — he's a tough guy, but he's gonna be their tough guy."


thewashingtonexaminer--2020-08-28--Chris Wallace: Trump's RNC acceptance speech was 'surprisingly flat'

Fox News anchor Chris Wallace was impressed by the fireworks display over the National Mall but said President Trump 's speech at the Republican National Convention lacked figurative fireworks .
The Fox News Sunday host said Trump 's acceptance speech was `` too long '' and too boring .
The 70-minute speech , he said , felt more like a State of the Union address than a speech that was designed to inspire voters .
`` There certainly were impressive fireworks on the Mall .
But I have to say , I was surprised at the lack of fireworks in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ First of all , it was far too long .
Seventy minutes exactly .
And I thought at times it felt more like a State of the Union speech , like a campaign speech , '' Wallace said .
`` The president went through all of his accomplishments during his first term , and they are a great number , and they are considerable .
And then , as you say , he went after Joe Biden , and he had good lines ...
I have to say in his delivery , again @ @ @ @ @ @ @ we have seen really turn on a crowd , was surprisingly flat , and he didn ’ t seem to have the bite that he usually does have in his speeches , '' he added .
Wallace questioned the Trump campaign 's decision to host a large crowd in close proximity during the pandemic .
He said that the packed South Lawn of the White House could distract from the policy goals detailed in Trump 's speech .
`` The fact that there were 2,000 people in close quarters on the South Lawn @ @ @ @ @ @ @ few of them with masks — no social distancing , ignoring all of the public health recommendations .
I suspect that is going to get a lot of comment in the next few days , '' he said .
to the Democratic National Convention last week .

Fox News anchor Chris Wallace was impressed by the fireworks display over the National Mall but said President Trump's speech at the Republican National Convention lacked figurative fireworks.
The Fox News Sunday host said Trump's acceptance speech was "too long" and too boring. The 70-minute speech, he said, felt more like a State of the Union address than a speech that was designed to inspire voters.
"There certainly were impressive fireworks on the Mall. But I have to say, I was surprised at the lack of fireworks in the president’s speech tonight. First of all, it was far too long. Seventy minutes exactly. And I thought at times it felt more like a State of the Union speech, like a campaign speech," Wallace said.
"The president went through all of his accomplishments during his first term, and they are a great number, and they are considerable. And then, as you say, he went after Joe Biden, and he had good lines ... I have to say in his delivery, again, I thought the president, who we have seen really turn on a crowd, was surprisingly flat, and he didn’t seem to have the bite that he usually does have in his speeches," he added.
Wallace questioned the Trump campaign's decision to host a large crowd in close proximity during the pandemic. He said that the packed South Lawn of the White House could distract from the policy goals detailed in Trump's speech.
"The fact that there were 2,000 people in close quarters on the South Lawn there with no — seemingly, very few of them with masks — no social distancing, ignoring all of the public health recommendations. I suspect that is going to get a lot of comment in the next few days," he said.


thewashingtonexaminer--2020-08-28--Republican insiders relieved Trump sticks to teleprompter with acceptance speech

Republican strategists jittery about President Trump 's prospects expressed relief Thursday he largely stuck to a somewhat positive teleprompter script as he accepted renomination from the GOP for a second term in the White House .
In evening remarks from the South Portico of the White House , Trump defended his record on domestic and foreign policy , vowing to crush the coronavirus and reduce the footprint of the United States military overseas .
The president ’ s address was not as forward-looking as some Republicans would prefer , and he took dead aim through much of the speech at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with a handful of provocative statements and occasional ad-libbing , Republican operatives said Trump concluded his remarks with a minimum of the dark imagery and extemporaneous comments characteristic of his signature stadium rallies .
Such asides have sometimes backfired politically with voters beyond the loyal base that he needs to win reelection .
“ Given the range of what he would want to talk about , this is a fair bit better than almost all of what I imagined we might see , ” a Republican consultant said .
“ A stroke of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that is not his preferred gear .
If we can ’ t get humility , then optimism is good enough.
” “ Trump delivered a speech that is a mix of campaign rhetoric and the State of the Union , ” Republican operative Ron Bonjean added .
After the coronavirus forced Trump to cancel plans for a renomination celebration in Jacksonville , Florida , he settled on the White House as the site for his acceptance speech .
The address was attended by a tightly packed audience of around 1,500 spectators who watched @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the imagery , at one point gesturing to the White House behind him .
“ The fact is , I ’ m here .
What ’ s the name of that building , ” pointing to the executive mansion .
“ But I ’ ll say it differently : The fact is , we ’ re here , and they ’ re not.
” The president ’ s address clocked in at more than an hour and included a checklist of promises kept from his first campaign , mixed with attacks on Biden @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for a second-term agenda .
These included leftover first-term items such as infrastructure spending and new proposals , like becoming the first nation to plant a flag on Mars .
Some Republicans complained that the speech was too long and too unfocused .
They lamented that Trump delivered too much of a backward-looking State of the Union address , with insufficient attention paid to developing a coherent theme of second-term agenda items .
Republicans also continue to worry , after the president ’ s speech , that his attacks on Biden are too @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ Joe Biden is weak , ” Trump charged .
But overall , Republicans rooting for the president to be successful were pleased that he didn ’ t turn the event into the sort of charged Trump rally performance that can rub swing voters and disaffected Republicans in the suburbs the wrong way .
“ He ’ s hitting the right issues and seems to be sticking to the script , ” Republican operative Jim Dornan said .
“ But he needs to offer a vision for a second four years.
” As @ @ @ @ @ @ @ reelection campaign , he needs to erase Biden ’ s lead in national polls and swing-state surveys .
To improve the president ’ s performance with swing voters and suburban women , the GOP convention featured several speakers who vouched for his character and put his occasionally provocative behavior in the context of passion to get things done .
The goal was to transform this race from a referendum on Trump ’ s leadership into a choice between the incumbent and Biden .
Some Republicans said Trump ’ s speech was a fitting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that regard .
“ In spite of the media ’ s insistence that he is only speaking to his base , I thought his speech and the Republican convention made an overt attempt to reach beyond the base , ” said Brett O ’ Donnell , a Republican communications consultant .

Republican strategists jittery about President Trump's prospects expressed relief Thursday he largely stuck to a somewhat positive teleprompter script as he accepted renomination from the GOP for a second term in the White House.
In evening remarks from the South Portico of the White House, Trump defended his record on domestic and foreign policy, vowing to crush the coronavirus and reduce the footprint of the United States military overseas. The president’s address was not as forward-looking as some Republicans would prefer, and he took dead aim through much of the speech at Democratic nominee Joe Biden.
While marked with a handful of provocative statements and occasional ad-libbing, Republican operatives said Trump concluded his remarks with a minimum of the dark imagery and extemporaneous comments characteristic of his signature stadium rallies. Such asides have sometimes backfired politically with voters beyond the loyal base that he needs to win reelection.
“Given the range of what he would want to talk about, this is a fair bit better than almost all of what I imagined we might see,” a Republican consultant said. “A stroke of humility would have been optimal, but that is not his preferred gear. If we can’t get humility, then optimism is good enough.”
“Trump delivered a speech that is a mix of campaign rhetoric and the State of the Union,” Republican operative Ron Bonjean added.
After the coronavirus forced Trump to cancel plans for a renomination celebration in Jacksonville, Florida, he settled on the White House as the site for his acceptance speech.
The address was attended by a tightly packed audience of around 1,500 spectators who watched from the South Lawn. Trump embraced the imagery, at one point gesturing to the White House behind him. “The fact is, I’m here. What’s the name of that building,” pointing to the executive mansion. “But I’ll say it differently: The fact is, we’re here, and they’re not.”
The president’s address clocked in at more than an hour and included a checklist of promises kept from his first campaign, mixed with attacks on Biden and the Democratic Party and bullet points for a second-term agenda. These included leftover first-term items such as infrastructure spending and new proposals, like becoming the first nation to plant a flag on Mars.
Some Republicans complained that the speech was too long and too unfocused. They lamented that Trump delivered too much of a backward-looking State of the Union address, with insufficient attention paid to developing a coherent theme of second-term agenda items. Republicans also continue to worry, after the president’s speech, that his attacks on Biden are too unwieldy to have the desired impact. “Joe Biden is weak,” Trump charged.
But overall, Republicans rooting for the president to be successful were pleased that he didn’t turn the event into the sort of charged Trump rally performance that can rub swing voters and disaffected Republicans in the suburbs the wrong way.
“He’s hitting the right issues and seems to be sticking to the script,” Republican operative Jim Dornan said. “But he needs to offer a vision for a second four years.”
As Trump enters the final stretch of his reelection campaign, he needs to erase Biden’s lead in national polls and swing-state surveys. To improve the president’s performance with swing voters and suburban women, the GOP convention featured several speakers who vouched for his character and put his occasionally provocative behavior in the context of passion to get things done.
The goal was to transform this race from a referendum on Trump’s leadership into a choice between the incumbent and Biden. Some Republicans said Trump’s speech was a fitting capstone to a very successful effort in that regard.
“In spite of the media’s insistence that he is only speaking to his base, I thought his speech and the Republican convention made an overt attempt to reach beyond the base,” said Brett O’Donnell, a Republican communications consultant.


thewashingtonexaminer--2020-08-28--GOP convention casts Trump as a caring pugilist who fights for ordinary people

The Republican National Convention spent four days trying to reassure voters that a second term for President Trump is a decent and moral choice , whatever their misgivings about his temperament , tweets , and personal tendencies .
Trump ’ s likelihood of winning a second term will depend , in part , on whether the convention not only succeeded in rallying a conservative base that has remained loyal to the president for four years , but also whether suburban voters end their exodus from the GOP .
The programming sought to portray Trump as a defender of every person @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and powerful .
Each night , Trump was shown helping ordinary people .
He celebrated pardons and commutations , not of his political allies but of offenders who had turned their lives around .
An immigration hawk who vowed to control the country ’ s borders , he presided over a naturalization ceremony for legal immigrants .
Hammered for the coronavirus death toll in America , he met with first responders and medical professionals risking their health to combat the pandemic .
Whatever the propriety of using the White House in this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ smooth over Trump ’ s rougher edges .
“ I have done more in three years for the black community than Joe Biden has done in 47 years — and when I ’ m reelected , the best is yet to come !
” Trump declared .
Prominent female speakers defended Trump as a leader who empowers women .
“ Last year , 70 % of all new jobs were secured by women , ” said Ivanka Trump , the president ’ s daughter and senior adviser .
`` For decades , he @ @ @ @ @ @ @ business and in government , ” said counselor to the president Kellyanne Conway .
“ He confides in and consults us , respects our opinions , and insists that we are on equal footing with the men.
” “ I think as many of the women who work with the president day in and day out — and I 'm one of them — we really want to show the American people the President Trump we see , ” Republican National Committee Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel told Fox News .
The message of most @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ nasty ” as you think , but to the extent that he is coarse and combative , it is to the benefit of the American people .
“ I urge you to make your judgment based on results and not rhetoric , ” said presidential daughter Tiffany Trump .
“ No matter the amount of negative or false media headlines or attacks from the other side , Donald Trump has not and will not lose focus on you , ” said Melania Trump .
“ He loves this country , and he @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ It has seemed very base-focused , and based on the Nielsen overnights and network breakout of who is actually watching , with Fox being in the lead substantially , I think that ’ s honestly the best use of a virtual convention in the current political environment , ” said Republican strategist Nicholas Everhart .
“ Inspire , fire up , and consolidate the base , so pre- and post-Labor Day on , you can focus on winning over the voter groups you need in the target states with an assured , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ Against the predictions of many , this convention has been well produced and has successfully driven a message , ” said Christian Ferry , deputy campaign manager for John McCain in 2008 .
“ The question , however , is whether that message , which , in many ways , is counter to what we ’ ve seen from the White House over the last four years , is at all believable to anyone who is not already a supporter.
” Ferry is among the McCain alumni who has endorsed Biden for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ president expressed optimism that the convention ’ s messaging will succeed in turning out the base while also attracting swing voters in the battleground states that will decide the election .
But they did not downplay Biden ’ s poll lead and the significance of national events from the pandemic to the economic downturn and civil unrest , all of which have made persuasion difficult .
“ The issue of crime is definitely rising as a public concern at the very moment Trump 's ratings began to fall .
The problem with Trump @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ‘ law and order ’ to a population who wants ‘ public safety , ’ ” said veteran Republican strategist and pollster Frank Luntz .
“ By using the wrong verbiage , he 's not getting the support he otherwise would be generating .
Law and order is police hitting protesters with clubs .
Public safety is safe streets and safe neighborhoods .
There is a definite difference.
” Despite middling ratings , the Trump campaign is confident it offered a favorable contrast with Biden .
It sought to `` change the media @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is , what a Trump supporter believes , and how they are hopeful for the future of the country if President Trump is elected to a second term , ” said communications director Tim Murtaugh .

The Republican National Convention spent four days trying to reassure voters that a second term for President Trump is a decent and moral choice, whatever their misgivings about his temperament, tweets, and personal tendencies.
Trump’s likelihood of winning a second term will depend, in part, on whether the convention not only succeeded in rallying a conservative base that has remained loyal to the president for four years, but also whether suburban voters end their exodus from the GOP. The programming sought to portray Trump as a defender of every person, not just the rich, white, and powerful.
Each night, Trump was shown helping ordinary people. He celebrated pardons and commutations, not of his political allies but of offenders who had turned their lives around. An immigration hawk who vowed to control the country’s borders, he presided over a naturalization ceremony for legal immigrants. Hammered for the coronavirus death toll in America, he met with first responders and medical professionals risking their health to combat the pandemic. Whatever the propriety of using the White House in this fashion, each act was intended to smooth over Trump’s rougher edges.
“I have done more in three years for the black community than Joe Biden has done in 47 years — and when I’m reelected, the best is yet to come!” Trump declared. Prominent female speakers defended Trump as a leader who empowers women. “Last year, 70% of all new jobs were secured by women,” said Ivanka Trump, the president’s daughter and senior adviser. "For decades, he has elevated women to senior positions in business and in government,” said counselor to the president Kellyanne Conway. “He confides in and consults us, respects our opinions, and insists that we are on equal footing with the men.”
“I think as many of the women who work with the president day in and day out — and I'm one of them — we really want to show the American people the President Trump we see,” Republican National Committee Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel told Fox News.
The message of most speakers was that Trump is not as “nasty” as you think, but to the extent that he is coarse and combative, it is to the benefit of the American people. “I urge you to make your judgment based on results and not rhetoric,” said presidential daughter Tiffany Trump. “No matter the amount of negative or false media headlines or attacks from the other side, Donald Trump has not and will not lose focus on you,” said Melania Trump. “He loves this country, and he knows how to get things done.”
“It has seemed very base-focused, and based on the Nielsen overnights and network breakout of who is actually watching, with Fox being in the lead substantially, I think that’s honestly the best use of a virtual convention in the current political environment,” said Republican strategist Nicholas Everhart. “Inspire, fire up, and consolidate the base, so pre- and post-Labor Day on, you can focus on winning over the voter groups you need in the target states with an assured, fired-up base in your back pocket.”
“Against the predictions of many, this convention has been well produced and has successfully driven a message,” said Christian Ferry, deputy campaign manager for John McCain in 2008. “The question, however, is whether that message, which, in many ways, is counter to what we’ve seen from the White House over the last four years, is at all believable to anyone who is not already a supporter.” Ferry is among the McCain alumni who has endorsed Biden for president.
Republican operatives who support the president expressed optimism that the convention’s messaging will succeed in turning out the base while also attracting swing voters in the battleground states that will decide the election. But they did not downplay Biden’s poll lead and the significance of national events from the pandemic to the economic downturn and civil unrest, all of which have made persuasion difficult.
“The issue of crime is definitely rising as a public concern at the very moment Trump's ratings began to fall. The problem with Trump's message is that he's promoting ‘law and order’ to a population who wants ‘public safety,’” said veteran Republican strategist and pollster Frank Luntz. “By using the wrong verbiage, he's not getting the support he otherwise would be generating. Law and order is police hitting protesters with clubs. Public safety is safe streets and safe neighborhoods. There is a definite difference.”
Despite middling ratings, the Trump campaign is confident it offered a favorable contrast with Biden. It sought to "change the media's perception of who a Trump supporter is, what a Trump supporter believes, and how they are hopeful for the future of the country if President Trump is elected to a second term,” said communications director Tim Murtaugh.


thewashingtonexaminer--2020-08-28--Trump uses White House stage to attack Biden as 'destroyer of American greatness'

Four years ago , Donald Trump accepted the Republican nomination for president by offering himself as the only figure capable of fixing a broken , demoralized country .
On Thursday night , in front of about 1,500 supporters at the White House , he offered himself as the bulwark against the chaos and disorder threatening his vision of America .
`` Your vote will decide whether we protect law-abiding Americans or whether we give free rein to violent anarchists , agitators , and criminals who threaten our citizens , '' he said .
`` And this election will decide whether @ @ @ @ @ @ @ life or whether we allow a radical movement to completely dismantle and destroy it . ''
He delivered his remarks from a flag-festooned stage on the South Lawn of the White House .
The floodlit building behind him made for a majestic setting , but it brought accusations that he was exploiting the `` People 's House '' for political purposes in a breach of ethics regulations .
The tension was audible around the edges of the lawn , where protesters ' chants , their foghorns , and police sirens could be heard @ @ @ @ @ @ @ challenges Trump faces if he is to overturn a deep poll deficit .
A country still reeling from the coronavirus pandemic was on Thursday facing a hurricane that slammed into the Gulf Coast , following fresh bouts of street violence after a black man was shot by police in Wisconsin .
Opponents say Trump is uniquely unsuited to uniting the country in times of uncertainty .
But the president tried to turn the argument around by accusing Joe Biden of being a tool of the Left .
`` Joe Biden is not the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is the destroyer of America 's jobs , and if given the chance , he will be the destroyer of American greatness , '' he said .
Republicans had billed the convention as an opportunity to present voters with a choice between a president who had delivered on his promises and a challenger who threatened to undermine law and order , concede standing and power to China , and fail to protect American history .
Yet they could not contend with a mercurial president who put himself at the center of each night @ @ @ @ @ @ @ week with a surprise visit to delegates conducting party business in Charlotte , North Carolina , upending coverage with a speech accusing Democrats of trying to steal the election .
And on Wednesday , he dropped in on Fort McHenry , where the vice president delivered his acceptance speech .
The risk is that voters are left with the impression that the election is a referendum on Trump and his handling of a pandemic that has killed 175,000 people .
Five hours before the president was due to take the stage , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ million rapid COVID-19 tests , to be distributed around the country .
The president promised to have a vaccine ready this year and contrasted his administration 's approach with Biden 's demand for more shutdowns .
`` The cost of the Biden shutdown would be measured in increased drug overdoses , depression , alcohol addiction , suicides , heart attacks , economic devastation , job loss , and much more .
Joe Biden 's plan is not a solution to the virus , but rather , it 's a surrender to the virus @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for about 70 minutes in front of a largely maskless audience .
But it was the specter of disorder that fueled Trump 's strongest passages and that brought the audience to its feet .
He introduced `` brave '' border agents , the children of a fallen police officer , and the family of a retired officer killed by looters .
`` If the radical Left takes power , they will apply their disastrous policies to every city , town , and suburb in America , '' he said in a disciplined performance @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Just imagine if the so-called peaceful demonstrators in the streets were in charge of every lever of power in the U.S .
government . ''
Democrats got their retaliation in early .
Hours before the speech , Biden and his vice presidential pick Kamala Harris accused Trump of rooting for more violence in Wisconsin , following the shooting of Jacob Blake in Kenosha .
`` He just keeps pouring fuel on the fire .
He 's encouraging this .
He 's not diminishing it at all .
This is his America now , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ want to end where we are now , we 've got to end his tenure as president . ''

Four years ago, Donald Trump accepted the Republican nomination for president by offering himself as the only figure capable of fixing a broken, demoralized country.
On Thursday night, in front of about 1,500 supporters at the White House, he offered himself as the bulwark against the chaos and disorder threatening his vision of America.
"Your vote will decide whether we protect law-abiding Americans or whether we give free rein to violent anarchists, agitators, and criminals who threaten our citizens," he said. "And this election will decide whether we will defend the American way of life or whether we allow a radical movement to completely dismantle and destroy it."
He delivered his remarks from a flag-festooned stage on the South Lawn of the White House. The floodlit building behind him made for a majestic setting, but it brought accusations that he was exploiting the "People's House" for political purposes in a breach of ethics regulations.
The tension was audible around the edges of the lawn, where protesters' chants, their foghorns, and police sirens could be heard, providing an audible reminder of the challenges Trump faces if he is to overturn a deep poll deficit. A country still reeling from the coronavirus pandemic was on Thursday facing a hurricane that slammed into the Gulf Coast, following fresh bouts of street violence after a black man was shot by police in Wisconsin.
Opponents say Trump is uniquely unsuited to uniting the country in times of uncertainty. But the president tried to turn the argument around by accusing Joe Biden of being a tool of the Left.
"Joe Biden is not the savior of America's soul — he is the destroyer of America's jobs, and if given the chance, he will be the destroyer of American greatness," he said.
Republicans had billed the convention as an opportunity to present voters with a choice between a president who had delivered on his promises and a challenger who threatened to undermine law and order, concede standing and power to China, and fail to protect American history.
Yet they could not contend with a mercurial president who put himself at the center of each night’s programming. He began the week with a surprise visit to delegates conducting party business in Charlotte, North Carolina, upending coverage with a speech accusing Democrats of trying to steal the election. And on Wednesday, he dropped in on Fort McHenry, where the vice president delivered his acceptance speech.
The risk is that voters are left with the impression that the election is a referendum on Trump and his handling of a pandemic that has killed 175,000 people.
Five hours before the president was due to take the stage, the White House announced the purchase of 150 million rapid COVID-19 tests, to be distributed around the country.
The president promised to have a vaccine ready this year and contrasted his administration's approach with Biden's demand for more shutdowns.
"The cost of the Biden shutdown would be measured in increased drug overdoses, depression, alcohol addiction, suicides, heart attacks, economic devastation, job loss, and much more. Joe Biden's plan is not a solution to the virus, but rather, it's a surrender to the virus," he said.
He spoke for about 70 minutes in front of a largely maskless audience.
But it was the specter of disorder that fueled Trump's strongest passages and that brought the audience to its feet. He introduced "brave" border agents, the children of a fallen police officer, and the family of a retired officer killed by looters.
"If the radical Left takes power, they will apply their disastrous policies to every city, town, and suburb in America," he said in a disciplined performance that stuck largely to script. "Just imagine if the so-called peaceful demonstrators in the streets were in charge of every lever of power in the U.S. government."
Democrats got their retaliation in early. Hours before the speech, Biden and his vice presidential pick Kamala Harris accused Trump of rooting for more violence in Wisconsin, following the shooting of Jacob Blake in Kenosha.
"He just keeps pouring fuel on the fire. He's encouraging this. He's not diminishing it at all. This is his America now," Biden said. "If you want to end where we are now, we've got to end his tenure as president."


thewashingtonexaminer--2020-08-28--Ivanka Trump: 'Donald Trump has changed Washington'

President Trump ’ s oldest daughter , Ivanka , who has served as a senior adviser in his administration , gave introductory remarks ahead of his acceptance speech at the Republican National Convention that celebrated his unapologetic fight for the people and even his tweets .
“ Now more than ever , America needs four more years of a warrior in the White House , ” she said .
Ivanka Trump talked about her father ’ s passion to achieve great deals and how that skill and ambition will help the nation recover from the coronavirus pandemic and the subsequent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ time he was updated on the progress of the new trade deal with Mexico and Canada , ” Ivanka Trump recalled , referring to the rewritten North American Free Trade Agreement .
“ He would say , 'Do n't let down those dairy farmers I met in Wisconsin .
I do n't want them to like this deal .
I want them to love it . '
” Like other convention speakers , Ivanka Trump sought to humanize her father , who Democrats and other critics say has downplayed the coronavirus and shown @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
She also reflected on the tough decisions he has had to make in the Oval Office , including the move to cut off flights from Europe last spring when the virus began surging overseas .
“ I ’ ve been with my father , and I 've seen the pain in his eyes when he receives updates on the lives that have been stolen by this plague , ” she said .
“ I have witnessed him make some of the most difficult decisions of his life , ” she said .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ Oval Office as he stopped traveled to Europe .
I watched him take the strongest , most inclusive economy in a lifetime , the lowest unemployment in a half-century and the highest wage increase for working families in decades , and close it down to save American lives.
” The White House describes Ivanka Trump ’ s advisory role as one that is centered on education and the economic empowerment of women , job creation , and economic growth through workforce development and skills training .
Ivanka Trump said her father is motivated @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the nation to economic prosperity and to vanquish the coronavirus .
The president mobilized the country to produce thousands of ventilators and rapidly develop treatments and a forthcoming vaccine , she said .
“ Donald Trump rejects the cynical notion that this country 's greatest achievements are behind us , ” Ivanka Trump said .
“ He believes that nothing is beyond our reach .
And that the best is yet to come.
” She also made reference to her father ’ s brash style of communicating , often through Twitter .
“ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ knows what he believes , and he says what he thinks , ” Ivanka Trump said .
“ Whether you agree with him or not , you always know where he stands .
I recognize that my dad 's communication style is not to everyone 's taste .
And I know that his tweets can feel a bit unfiltered , but the results — the results speak for themselves .
”

President Trump’s oldest daughter, Ivanka, who has served as a senior adviser in his administration, gave introductory remarks ahead of his acceptance speech at the Republican National Convention that celebrated his unapologetic fight for the people and even his tweets.
“Now more than ever, America needs four more years of a warrior in the White House,” she said.
Ivanka Trump talked about her father’s passion to achieve great deals and how that skill and ambition will help the nation recover from the coronavirus pandemic and the subsequent economic downturn.
“I remember each time he was updated on the progress of the new trade deal with Mexico and Canada,” Ivanka Trump recalled, referring to the rewritten North American Free Trade Agreement. “He would say, 'Don't let down those dairy farmers I met in Wisconsin. I don't want them to like this deal. I want them to love it.'”
Like other convention speakers, Ivanka Trump sought to humanize her father, who Democrats and other critics say has downplayed the coronavirus and shown little empathy for its tremendous human cost.
She also reflected on the tough decisions he has had to make in the Oval Office, including the move to cut off flights from Europe last spring when the virus began surging overseas.
“I’ve been with my father, and I've seen the pain in his eyes when he receives updates on the lives that have been stolen by this plague,” she said.
“I have witnessed him make some of the most difficult decisions of his life,” she said. “I sat with him in the Oval Office as he stopped traveled to Europe. I watched him take the strongest, most inclusive economy in a lifetime, the lowest unemployment in a half-century and the highest wage increase for working families in decades, and close it down to save American lives.”
The White House describes Ivanka Trump’s advisory role as one that is centered on education and the economic empowerment of women, job creation, and economic growth through workforce development and skills training.
Ivanka Trump said her father is motivated by the tough road ahead to return the nation to economic prosperity and to vanquish the coronavirus.
The president mobilized the country to produce thousands of ventilators and rapidly develop treatments and a forthcoming vaccine, she said.
“Donald Trump rejects the cynical notion that this country's greatest achievements are behind us,” Ivanka Trump said. “He believes that nothing is beyond our reach. And that the best is yet to come.”
She also made reference to her father’s brash style of communicating, often through Twitter.
“My father has strong convictions, he knows what he believes, and he says what he thinks,” Ivanka Trump said. “Whether you agree with him or not, you always know where he stands. I recognize that my dad's communication style is not to everyone's taste. And I know that his tweets can feel a bit unfiltered, but the results — the results speak for themselves.”


thewashingtonexaminer--2020-08-28--Trump campaign senses blood as Biden prepares to ditch 'basement strategy'

The Trump campaign declared victory after Joe Biden said he would return to the campaign trail after Labor Day , claiming the Democratic nominee sensed his decision to stay close to home had caused him to cede ground to his opponent .
And pro-Trump super PACs are ready to make fresh ads on any gaffes or policy pronouncements as they look to scrutinize Biden and his record .
While President Trump traveled to Charlotte , North Carolina , as well as Fort Henry , Maryland , before addressing more than 1,500 people on the south lawn of the White House @ @ @ @ @ @ @ prerecorded videos and delivered his acceptance speech in an auditorium empty apart from a handful of staff and journalists .
It is part of what had been seen as the challenger 's `` basement strategy , '' which saw him leading his campaign via video conference calls from his downstairs studio .
But that will change in a little over a week , and Trump officials are anticipating a fresh chance to land blows on the former vice president .
Samantha Zager , deputy national press secretary for Trump 2020 , said : @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the intelligence of the American people by hiding in his basement and letting the mainstream media do his campaigning for him .
He was wrong .
`` Now that he ’ s scrambling to hit the campaign trail after seeing the organic enthusiasm for President Trump and the effective stories from real Americans at the RNC , it ’ s clear he was using COVID as an excuse to avoid answering for his abysmal record .
`` We ’ re excited for Americans to see the real Joe Biden because once they do @ @ @ @ @ @ @ favor of four more years of President Trump.
” Biden announced the change in strategy on Thursday .
`` I ’ m a tactile politician .
I really miss being able to , you know , grab hands , shake hands .
You can ’ t do that now , ” he said .
“ But I can , in fact , appear beyond virtually , in person , in many of these places .
That ’ s what you ’ re going to be seeing after Labor Day.
” Before the lockdown @ @ @ @ @ @ @ use much of Biden ’ s campaign schedule against him .
Every slip of the tongue or verbal stumble was quickly weaponized into memes or talking points for supporters .
But there have been thin pickings ever since .
Kelly Sadler , communications director of the America First Action super PAC , said his return to the campaign trail would aid anyone looking to scrutinize his policies .
`` We 'll be able to clip ads , '' she said .
`` What we are using right now is everything that he said @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have any new footage .
`` So , this is all good news for us .
When he was out on the campaign trail in the primary , he provided all the ammo that we needed . ''
Biden 's retreat from public view was met with accusations that he was hiding from difficult questions compared with a president who speaks with reporters on a daily basis .
But supporters of both sides also acknowledged the sense that a front-runner could avoid slip-ups by staying away from the limelight .
It better ensures @ @ @ @ @ @ @ incumbent .
Karl Rove , adviser to President George W. Bush , compared the basement strategy with the old four-corners offense of college basketball : Defend a lead by slowing the game and passing the ball around the edge of the court until the defense makes a mistake , leaving an opening for an easy layup .
“ Team Biden slowed the campaign ’ s pace , keeping its candidate in his basement and leaving the spotlight to the incumbent , '' he wrote in a column for the Wall Street Journal .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ time before allowing Mr. Biden to make a speech.
``

The Trump campaign declared victory after Joe Biden said he would return to the campaign trail after Labor Day, claiming the Democratic nominee sensed his decision to stay close to home had caused him to cede ground to his opponent.
And pro-Trump super PACs are ready to make fresh ads on any gaffes or policy pronouncements as they look to scrutinize Biden and his record.
While President Trump traveled to Charlotte, North Carolina, as well as Fort Henry, Maryland, before addressing more than 1,500 people on the south lawn of the White House on Thursday, Biden appeared in several prerecorded videos and delivered his acceptance speech in an auditorium empty apart from a handful of staff and journalists.
It is part of what had been seen as the challenger's "basement strategy," which saw him leading his campaign via video conference calls from his downstairs studio.
But that will change in a little over a week, and Trump officials are anticipating a fresh chance to land blows on the former vice president.
Samantha Zager, deputy national press secretary for Trump 2020, said: “Joe Biden thought he could insult the intelligence of the American people by hiding in his basement and letting the mainstream media do his campaigning for him. He was wrong.
"Now that he’s scrambling to hit the campaign trail after seeing the organic enthusiasm for President Trump and the effective stories from real Americans at the RNC, it’s clear he was using COVID as an excuse to avoid answering for his abysmal record.
"We’re excited for Americans to see the real Joe Biden because once they do, they’ll reject him in favor of four more years of President Trump.”
Biden announced the change in strategy on Thursday.
"I’m a tactile politician. I really miss being able to, you know, grab hands, shake hands. You can’t do that now,” he said. “But I can, in fact, appear beyond virtually, in person, in many of these places. That’s what you’re going to be seeing after Labor Day.”
Before the lockdown, the Trump campaign was able to use much of Biden’s campaign schedule against him. Every slip of the tongue or verbal stumble was quickly weaponized into memes or talking points for supporters.
But there have been thin pickings ever since.
Kelly Sadler, communications director of the America First Action super PAC, said his return to the campaign trail would aid anyone looking to scrutinize his policies.
"We'll be able to clip ads," she said. "What we are using right now is everything that he said during the primary because we don't have any new footage.
"So, this is all good news for us. When he was out on the campaign trail in the primary, he provided all the ammo that we needed."
Biden's retreat from public view was met with accusations that he was hiding from difficult questions compared with a president who speaks with reporters on a daily basis.
But supporters of both sides also acknowledged the sense that a front-runner could avoid slip-ups by staying away from the limelight. It better ensures the election remains a referendum on the incumbent.
Karl Rove, adviser to President George W. Bush, compared the basement strategy with the old four-corners offense of college basketball: Defend a lead by slowing the game and passing the ball around the edge of the court until the defense makes a mistake, leaving an opening for an easy layup.
“Team Biden slowed the campaign’s pace, keeping its candidate in his basement and leaving the spotlight to the incumbent," he wrote in a column for the Wall Street Journal. "The campaign team took its sweet time before allowing Mr. Biden to make a speech. "


thewashingtonexaminer--2020-08-28--Trump halves Biden's lead in political betting odds during GOP convention

Betting markets that for two months favored Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden over President Trump are watching his lead shrink at a rapidly contracting pace , according to an average of the odds , which Friday gave Biden a 53 % chance of winning compared to 47 % for Trump .
On the first day of the Democratic National Convention , Biden registered a 15.2-point advantage over Trump , with a 56.9 % chance of winning compared to the president 's 41.7 % , according to a RealClearPolitics average of betting odds .
But gamblers seemed to not like what @ @ @ @ @ @ @ points once the convention ended .
By the start of the Republican National Convention on Monday , Biden held an 11.6-point average advantage .
By Friday , this number had fallen by half , with its most dramatic contraction occurring on the final day of the convention when Biden 's lead fell 1.6 points overnight .
Gamblers ' odds of Trump winning the November election outpaced Biden through much of March , April , and May .
But a turning point in early June saw their fortunes reverse .
On June 2 , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ RealClearPolitics average by 1 point , and then began gaining steam .
By the end of the month , Trump 's odds were slashed , and Biden hovered ahead with a lead between 22 and 23 points , on average .
After a brief contraction of these odds in early July , Biden bettors plowed ahead to drive his lead to 24.6 percentage points on Aug. 1 , with his odds of winning at 61 % , on average , and Trump 's at 36.4 % .
Soon after , Trump began to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Forecasters for prediction market website PredictIt `` have generally been less bullish on a Biden win than some of the national polls and other major election handicappers ( e.g.
, here and here ) , '' said Will Jennings , a spokesman for the company , in a statement .
Other forecasters have their own odds .
Jennings said the reason for this is difficult to pinpoint but that prediction markets `` can price in factors other forecasting methods ca n't , such as the potential impact of the pandemic on voter turnout @ @ @ @ @ @ @ actually submitting and counting voters ’ ballots . ''
Markets also do this more quickly , `` since people are 'invested ' in the outcome , '' he said .
`` For example , alongside the conventions and after the tragic events in Kenosha , WI , the odds that Democrats will win Wisconsin have dropped nine percent in the last week , from 66 % down to 57 % . ''
Jennings shared a chart from the Bespoke Investment Group that he said summed up the prediction market response to the conventions @ @ @ @ @ @ @ weeks .
`` While Biden initially saw a small bump from the Democratic convention , the share price for him winning has since retreated , giving him the most narrow lead he 's had in the market since early June , '' he said .
Patrick Flynn , a political analyst for Smarkets , a betting market website , agreed that the race had tightened over the past two weeks .
`` Though it is hard to say for certain what is driving changes in the prediction markets , the race has tightened @ @ @ @ @ @ @ party conventions , '' Flynn said .
`` Trump traded at his highest price since May after his acceptance speech , '' Flynn said .
According to Smarkets 's `` Next President '' market , which RealClearPolitics includes in its average , Biden has fallen by 5 percentage points since the start of the Democratic convention .
Biden 's lead has collapsed from a high of 28 percentage points at the start of August to 8 points , Flynn said .
`` As of now , our users give the former vice president @ @ @ @ @ @ @ presidency to Trump 's 46 % , '' he continued .
`` Given how clear and consistent Biden 's lead has been in the national polls over the last few months , it appears that Smarkets users are trading on the belief that the polls will tighten over the final two months of the campaign . ''
Biden leads Trump by 7.1 percentage points , according to a RealClearPolitics average of national polls .

Betting markets that for two months favored Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden over President Trump are watching his lead shrink at a rapidly contracting pace, according to an average of the odds, which Friday gave Biden a 53% chance of winning compared to 47% for Trump.
On the first day of the Democratic National Convention, Biden registered a 15.2-point advantage over Trump, with a 56.9% chance of winning compared to the president's 41.7%, according to a RealClearPolitics average of betting odds. But gamblers seemed to not like what they saw. His lead fell 1.5 points once the convention ended.
By the start of the Republican National Convention on Monday, Biden held an 11.6-point average advantage. By Friday, this number had fallen by half, with its most dramatic contraction occurring on the final day of the convention when Biden's lead fell 1.6 points overnight.
Gamblers' odds of Trump winning the November election outpaced Biden through much of March, April, and May. But a turning point in early June saw their fortunes reverse. On June 2, Biden moved ahead of Trump in the RealClearPolitics average by 1 point, and then began gaining steam.
By the end of the month, Trump's odds were slashed, and Biden hovered ahead with a lead between 22 and 23 points, on average.
After a brief contraction of these odds in early July, Biden bettors plowed ahead to drive his lead to 24.6 percentage points on Aug. 1, with his odds of winning at 61%, on average, and Trump's at 36.4%.
Soon after, Trump began to chip away at Biden's odds.
Forecasters for prediction market website PredictIt "have generally been less bullish on a Biden win than some of the national polls and other major election handicappers (e.g., here and here)," said Will Jennings, a spokesman for the company, in a statement.
Other forecasters have their own odds.
Biden's at only 55-60% to win in prediction markets, but 85-90% in other statistical models, which seems like an insanely wide spread—and I don't think either number is super easy to defend—so I have to say I'm pretty happy that 538 model's falls somewhere in the middle. — Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) August 26, 2020
Jennings said the reason for this is difficult to pinpoint but that prediction markets "can price in factors other forecasting methods can't, such as the potential impact of the pandemic on voter turnout and fears related to the logistics of actually submitting and counting voters’ ballots."
Markets also do this more quickly, "since people are 'invested' in the outcome," he said. "For example, alongside the conventions and after the tragic events in Kenosha, WI, the odds that Democrats will win Wisconsin have dropped nine percent in the last week, from 66% down to 57%."
Jennings shared a chart from the Bespoke Investment Group that he said summed up the prediction market response to the conventions and related events from the last two weeks.
"While Biden initially saw a small bump from the Democratic convention, the share price for him winning has since retreated, giving him the most narrow lead he's had in the market since early June," he said.
PredictIt: 2020 Election Winner
Patrick Flynn, a political analyst for Smarkets, a betting market website, agreed that the race had tightened over the past two weeks.
"Though it is hard to say for certain what is driving changes in the prediction markets, the race has tightened on Smarkets over the course of the party conventions," Flynn said.
"Trump traded at his highest price since May after his acceptance speech," Flynn said. According to Smarkets's "Next President" market, which RealClearPolitics includes in its average, Biden has fallen by 5 percentage points since the start of the Democratic convention.
Biden's lead has collapsed from a high of 28 percentage points at the start of August to 8 points, Flynn said.
"As of now, our users give the former vice president a 54% chance of winning the presidency to Trump's 46%," he continued. "Given how clear and consistent Biden's lead has been in the national polls over the last few months, it appears that Smarkets users are trading on the belief that the polls will tighten over the final two months of the campaign."
Biden leads Trump by 7.1 percentage points, according to a RealClearPolitics average of national polls.


thewashingtonexaminer--2020-08-28--Kenosha riots put Biden Wisconsin chances in doubt

President Trump and his campaign are seizing on anger over a black man being shot by a white police officer in Wisconsin to help shore up his support nationwide and in the crucial battleground state against 2020 Democratic standard-bearer Joe Biden .
Trump and his allies , including Vice President Mike Pence , repeatedly told potential voters watching the 2020 Republican National Convention this week that they wouldn ’ t be safer if Biden takes back the White House this fall .
Trump and his team used the convention to tout the administration ’ s law and order credentials amid @ @ @ @ @ @ @ after the shooting .
And during his hourlong renomination acceptance speech Thursday , Trump capped the four-day GOP pep rally by contrasting Republicans ’ with the Democrats ’ messaging .
The president , in particular , ripped Biden for not addressing the issue during his convention , though the two-term vice president has .
The Trump camp seems convinced it can win over suburban white women with the president ’ s rhetoric .
Their political calculus , however , was complicated by a 17-year-old white male , a vigilante from Illinois , who @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the border to Kenosha and fatally shot two protesters , wounding another .
At the same time , Biden and his aides could lose their sway with the voting bloc if they don ’ t better balance their racial justice push with understanding the public safety talking points ’ pull for the demographic .
Barry Burden , director of the University of Wisconsin-Madison ’ s Elections Research Center , told the Washington Examiner it wasn ’ t clear if events like Kenosha would assist Trump before the Nov. 3 general election .
“ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” he said .
Jacob Blake , 29 , is still in hospital after he was shot seven times in the back last weekend by Kenosha Police .
Sheskey and a couple of his colleagues had been trying to arrest Blake while responding to a domestic dispute .
Initial reports indicate Blake told them he had a knife .
The turmoil in Kenosha follows a summer of discontent after George Floyd ’ s death in Minneapolis .
But it appears biracial support of the protests , spurred by footage of a white officer @ @ @ @ @ @ @ nine minutes , is dissipating — at least in Wisconsin .
Although conducted before the Kenosha tumult , released this week found public opinion of the demonstrations had dropped from 61 % approval and 36 % disapproval in June to 48 % approval and 48 % disapproval in August .
While support among black respondents and those who live in the city of Milwaukee held steady , it declined among white respondents and those who call the state ’ s suburbs , exurbs , towns , and rural areas home .
For Burden @ @ @ @ @ @ @ after two statues near the state capitol building in Madison were toppled .
Yet he predicted they would morph again after the Blake incident .
“ The video is reminding viewers of what sparked the protests in the first place .
But there are also calls for ‘ law and order ’ in Kenosha and elsewhere , and many National Guard members are being deployed , ” he said .
“ Meanwhile , the NBA strike being led by the Milwaukee Bucks has gotten a lot of attention and has elevated the situation @ @ @ @ @ @ @ seen as being about opportunistic looters breaking storefronts rather than a broader effort at racial justice.
” Democratic Wisconsin state Rep. David Bowen believed the polling reflected a desire to return to normal , though he added the Black Lives Matter movement ’ s aim was “ to irritate and agitate people so that they do n't forget that they have to fix this.
” He questioned , too , whether Trump was portraying demonstrators as “ enemies ” and “ criminals ” to create problems he could fix “ later down the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hurt Biden in the short-term .
Yet with the election still 70 days away , he implored Biden to continue making amends for the 1994 crime bill and “ champion ” this cause , especially since there ’ s a perception he won ’ t embrace all the reforms activists are proposing .
“ Those same suburban white women were n't fooled in 2018 when they voted as part of the wave that gave Wisconsin all statewide elected positions , the same wave that took over the House , ” he said of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 's underestimating the damage that he 's doing.
” If the 2020 election unfolds like the 2016 contest , the next president will be decided by either Michigan , Pennsylvania , or Wisconsin .
And four years ago , Wisconsin was the tipping-point state , gifting Trump the 10 electoral votes he needed to clinch an Electoral College majority .
After the conventions , Biden leads in Wisconsin by an average of 6.2 percentage points , according to FiveThirtyEight .
RealClearPolitics data reveals a closer race , the pair separated by only 3.5 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tactic was candidly articulated this week by outgoing White House counselor Kellyanne Conway .
`` The more chaos and anarchy and vandalism and violence reigns , the better it is for the very clear choice on who 's best on public safety and law and order , ” she told reporters .
Biden , in his reply , accused Trump of “ rooting for more violence ” because he saw it as '' The part that bothers me the most is the idea of just pouring gasoline on the racial flames that are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ any of the looting , any of the burning , any of the damage being done by protesters , but the people have a right to be angry , people have a right to protest , ” he said .

President Trump and his campaign are seizing on anger over a black man being shot by a white police officer in Wisconsin to help shore up his support nationwide and in the crucial battleground state against 2020 Democratic standard-bearer Joe Biden.
Trump and his allies, including Vice President Mike Pence, repeatedly told potential voters watching the 2020 Republican National Convention this week that they wouldn’t be safer if Biden takes back the White House this fall.
Trump and his team used the convention to tout the administration’s law and order credentials amid civil unrest in Kenosha, Wisconsin, after the shooting. And during his hourlong renomination acceptance speech Thursday, Trump capped the four-day GOP pep rally by contrasting Republicans’ tough stance against race-related riots and looting with the Democrats’ messaging. The president, in particular, ripped Biden for not addressing the issue during his convention, though the two-term vice president has condemned violence on both sides .
The Trump camp seems convinced it can win over suburban white women with the president’s rhetoric. Their political calculus, however, was complicated by a 17-year-old white male, a vigilante from Illinois, who this week was charged with first-degree intentional homicide after he allegedly crossed the border to Kenosha and fatally shot two protesters, wounding another. At the same time, Biden and his aides could lose their sway with the voting bloc if they don’t better balance their racial justice push with understanding the public safety talking points’ pull for the demographic.
Barry Burden, director of the University of Wisconsin-Madison’s Elections Research Center, told the Washington Examiner it wasn’t clear if events like Kenosha would assist Trump before the Nov. 3 general election.
“They definitely will not help Biden,” he said.
Jacob Blake, 29, is still in hospital after he was shot seven times in the back last weekend by seven-year Kenosha Police Department veteran Rusten Sheskey . Sheskey and a couple of his colleagues had been trying to arrest Blake while responding to a domestic dispute. Initial reports indicate Blake told them he had a knife.
The turmoil in Kenosha follows a summer of discontent after George Floyd’s death in Minneapolis. But it appears biracial support of the protests, spurred by footage of a white officer kneeling on Floyd’s neck for nine minutes, is dissipating — at least in Wisconsin.
Although conducted before the Kenosha tumult, Marquette Law School polling released this week found public opinion of the demonstrations had dropped from 61% approval and 36% disapproval in June to 48% approval and 48% disapproval in August. While support among black respondents and those who live in the city of Milwaukee held steady, it declined among white respondents and those who call the state’s suburbs, exurbs, towns, and rural areas home.
For Burden, attitudes in Wisconsin started to shift after two statues near the state capitol building in Madison were toppled. Yet he predicted they would morph again after the Blake incident.
“The video is reminding viewers of what sparked the protests in the first place. But there are also calls for ‘law and order’ in Kenosha and elsewhere, and many National Guard members are being deployed,” he said. “Meanwhile, the NBA strike being led by the Milwaukee Bucks has gotten a lot of attention and has elevated the situation so that it cannot easily be seen as being about opportunistic looters breaking storefronts rather than a broader effort at racial justice.”
Democratic Wisconsin state Rep. David Bowen believed the polling reflected a desire to return to normal, though he added the Black Lives Matter movement’s aim was “to irritate and agitate people so that they don't forget that they have to fix this.” He questioned, too, whether Trump was portraying demonstrators as “enemies” and “criminals” to create problems he could fix “later down the line.”
Bowen acknowledged Kenosha could politically hurt Biden in the short-term. Yet with the election still 70 days away, he implored Biden to continue making amends for the 1994 crime bill and “champion” this cause, especially since there’s a perception he won’t embrace all the reforms activists are proposing.
“Those same suburban white women weren't fooled in 2018 when they voted as part of the wave that gave Wisconsin all statewide elected positions, the same wave that took over the House,” he said of Trump’s strategy. “He's underestimating the damage that he's doing.”
If the 2020 election unfolds like the 2016 contest, the next president will be decided by either Michigan, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin. And four years ago, Wisconsin was the tipping-point state, gifting Trump the 10 electoral votes he needed to clinch an Electoral College majority.
After the conventions, Biden leads in Wisconsin by an average of 6.2 percentage points, according to FiveThirtyEight. RealClearPolitics data reveals a closer race, the pair separated by only 3.5 points.
The Trump campaign’s tactic was candidly articulated this week by outgoing White House counselor Kellyanne Conway.
"The more chaos and anarchy and vandalism and violence reigns, the better it is for the very clear choice on who's best on public safety and law and order,” she told reporters.
Biden, in his reply, accused Trump of “rooting for more violence” because he saw it as "a political benefit."
"The part that bothers me the most is the idea of just pouring gasoline on the racial flames that are burning now. That does not justify any of the looting, any of the burning, any of the damage being done by protesters, but the people have a right to be angry, people have a right to protest,” he said.


thewashingtonexaminer--2020-08-28--California House rematch gets heated as GOP sees opportunity to recapture seat

House Republicans view California ’ s 21st Congressional District as a strong pickup opportunity in the party 's longshot bid to recapture the majority they lost two years ago .
And it 's getting ugly on the ground in the Central Valley as the race tightens and both campaigns throw jabs .
Rep. T.J. Cox , a California Democrat who won the seat in 2018 against Republican incumbent Rep. David Valadao , is locked in a brutal rematch to hold the district , extending across Kings County and areas of Fresno , Tulare , and Kern counties .
Cox raised @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and beat the California Republican by less than 1,000 votes .
The district was one of seven Republicans lost in California , as House Democrats won their first majority in eight years .
Now , it 's a key component in Hosue Republican efforts to regain the majority , which will take a net pickup of about 17 seats .
That 's a prospect that looks more difficult since Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden leads President Trump in polls .
Cox and Valadao are nearly neck and neck in terms of their current @ @ @ @ @ @ @ And the Cook Political Report rates the race as a tossup in the D+5 Democratic district .
Cox described to the Washington Examiner his campaigning methods in the district while staying aware of the COVID-19 environment .
“ We 're naturally or socially distanced .
We wear all of our PPE ’ s .
We 're actually getting out there quite a bit , ” he said .
“ I can tell you , we go to every corner of the district , and people are all saying , 'Hey , thank you @ @ @ @ @ @ @ up . '
” Cox then referenced his past ( and current ) opponent , who previously held the job .
`` The guy before never showed up .
The guy before , he voted with Trump , a hundred percent of the time , '' Cox said .
He added , “ Everybody knows who I am and who my opponent was , so we 're continuing to work hard.
” Valadao ’ s campaign manager Andrew Renteria hit back at Cox , telling the Washington Examiner in an email statement : @ @ @ @ @ @ @ record of doing what is right for the Central Valley , not any political party , speaks for itself .
Since TJ Cox does not live or pay taxes in the district , he may just now be learning about David ’ s work with President Obama to deliver more water to the Valley and how he opposed his party leadership to co-sponsor the DREAM Act .
No amount of false , negative ads from TJ Cox and his special interest supporters in Washington DC can change those facts.
” Republicans also amplified @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Office of Congressional Ethics this week by the Foundation for Accountability and Civic Trust , a conservative Washington-based watchdog group .
According to the complaint , Cox used his position as a member of Congress to get two vehicle passes to Yosemite National Park when he was initially denied the request “ due to the personal nature of this visit ” and officials urged him to try to get passes he same way the general public obtains them .
Cox ’ s campaign manager Amanda Sands previously stated when the story first @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was “ a meritless partisan attack by the Trump administration and other desperate Republicans.
” House Republicans say they have momentum in California House races .
They point to their recent special election win in a northern Los Angeles County House district where they won back the seat they lost in 2018 to political newcomer Katie Hill , who resigned from office in November 2019 following a sex scandal .
But Cox is unfazed by the comparison .
“ What we saw in CA-25 is that outreach was n't out there , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ we contact each and every voter where you want to make sure that they know how to vote and exercise that right , ” said Cox .
“ This is a race that we 're leaving nothing to chance we 're going to work .
The reason why we won last time is we outworked our opponent , and we 're not going to get outworked this time either . ''

House Republicans view California’s 21st Congressional District as a strong pickup opportunity in the party's longshot bid to recapture the majority they lost two years ago. And it's getting ugly on the ground in the Central Valley as the race tightens and both campaigns throw jabs.
Rep. T.J. Cox, a California Democrat who won the seat in 2018 against Republican incumbent Rep. David Valadao, is locked in a brutal rematch to hold the district, extending across Kings County and areas of Fresno, Tulare, and Kern counties.
Cox raised almost as much as Valadao in 2018 and beat the California Republican by less than 1,000 votes. The district was one of seven Republicans lost in California, as House Democrats won their first majority in eight years. Now, it's a key component in Hosue Republican efforts to regain the majority, which will take a net pickup of about 17 seats. That's a prospect that looks more difficult since Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden leads President Trump in polls.
Cox and Valadao are nearly neck and neck in terms of their current fundraising and cash on hand levels. And the Cook Political Report rates the race as a tossup in the D+5 Democratic district.
Cox described to the Washington Examiner his campaigning methods in the district while staying aware of the COVID-19 environment.
“We're naturally or socially distanced. We wear all of our PPE’s. We're actually getting out there quite a bit,” he said. “I can tell you, we go to every corner of the district, and people are all saying, 'Hey, thank you so much. You keep on showing up.'”
Cox then referenced his past (and current) opponent, who previously held the job.
"The guy before never showed up. The guy before, he voted with Trump, a hundred percent of the time," Cox said.
He added, “Everybody knows who I am and who my opponent was, so we're continuing to work hard.”
Valadao’s campaign manager Andrew Renteria hit back at Cox, telling the Washington Examiner in an email statement: “David’s long, bipartisan record of doing what is right for the Central Valley, not any political party, speaks for itself. Since TJ Cox does not live or pay taxes in the district, he may just now be learning about David’s work with President Obama to deliver more water to the Valley and how he opposed his party leadership to co-sponsor the DREAM Act. No amount of false, negative ads from TJ Cox and his special interest supporters in Washington DC can change those facts.”
Republicans also amplified an ethics complaint filed against Cox with the Office of Congressional Ethics this week by the Foundation for Accountability and Civic Trust, a conservative Washington-based watchdog group.
According to the complaint, Cox used his position as a member of Congress to get two vehicle passes to Yosemite National Park when he was initially denied the request “due to the personal nature of this visit” and officials urged him to try to get passes he same way the general public obtains them.
Cox’s campaign manager Amanda Sands previously stated when the story first surfaced on Aug. 6 that the accusation was “a meritless partisan attack by the Trump administration and other desperate Republicans.”
House Republicans say they have momentum in California House races. They point to their recent special election win in a northern Los Angeles County House district where they won back the seat they lost in 2018 to political newcomer Katie Hill, who resigned from office in November 2019 following a sex scandal.
But Cox is unfazed by the comparison.
“What we saw in CA-25 is that outreach wasn't out there, and so, we're making sure that we contact each and every voter where you want to make sure that they know how to vote and exercise that right,” said Cox. “This is a race that we're leaving nothing to chance we're going to work. The reason why we won last time is we outworked our opponent, and we're not going to get outworked this time either."


thewashingtonexaminer--2020-08-28--Biden got a strong post-convention bump: Poll

The recent virtual Democratic National Convention boosted Joe Biden 's prospects against President Trump , according to a running poll conducted by the University of Southern California .
The 2020 USC Dornsife Presidential Election Poll on Friday found 52.73 % of respondents backing Biden , up from 50.4 % nine days before .
And 40.32 % of those polled currently support the president , a slight drop from the 40.8 % support he enjoyed on Aug. 19 , which was Day Three of the four-day Democratic convention .
That 2-point bump is slightly lower than the recent 53.3 % support @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and Trump has roughly a 1-point drop in support , down from his recent high of 41.37 % on Aug. 21 .
The Democrats wrapped up their convention on Aug. 20 , ending with Biden 's speech that implored voters to choose `` light '' over `` darkness '' on Election Day .
Thursday marked the end of the Republican convention .
The poll conducts a rolling-type survey , asking 6,000 respondents every other week about issues related to the election and their preferred presidential candidates .
The daily numbers are an @ @ @ @ @

The recent virtual Democratic National Convention boosted Joe Biden's prospects against President Trump, according to a running poll conducted by the University of Southern California.
The 2020 USC Dornsife Presidential Election Poll on Friday found 52.73% of respondents backing Biden, up from 50.4% nine days before. And 40.32% of those polled currently support the president, a slight drop from the 40.8% support he enjoyed on Aug. 19, which was Day Three of the four-day Democratic convention.
That 2-point bump is slightly lower than the recent 53.3% support high that Biden saw on Aug. 24, and Trump has roughly a 1-point drop in support, down from his recent high of 41.37% on Aug. 21.
The Democrats wrapped up their convention on Aug. 20, ending with Biden's speech that implored voters to choose "light" over "darkness" on Election Day. Thursday marked the end of the Republican convention.
The poll conducts a rolling-type survey, asking 6,000 respondents every other week about issues related to the election and their preferred presidential candidates. The daily numbers are an approximation of voter opinion.


thewashingtonexaminer--2020-08-28--'I'm going to speak to what I know': Alice Marie Johnson defends appearance at RNC

Alice Marie Johnson , the woman whose lifelong prison sentence was cut short by President Trump , is standing by her appearance at the Republican National Convention .
The criminal justice reform advocate , who spoke about her journey to freedom at the GOP event , appeared for an interview with MSNBC on Friday and was pressed to answer for that appearance , despite her talk of wanting to stay out of politics , and reserved judgment on the question of whether she thinks Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden will also fight for criminal justice reform .
`` I don @ @ @ @ @ @ @ do , '' Johnson told MSNBC host Stephanie Ruhle on Friday .
`` I just know that with this administration , they ’ ve been open to the things that I ’ ve been bringing to the table .
So , I ’ m so focused , Stephanie , on my mission that I ’ m not going to speak on what Joe Biden will or will not do .
I ’ m going to speak to what I know . ''
Johnson said Biden 's campaign has n't reached out to her @ @ @ @ @ @ @ where everyone stands on reform moving forward .
She added that she has been working with the White House on its current plan , and she feels confident about the path forward .
Johnson also pushed back on a question about whether she thinks others in the black community feel that Trump is a compassionate person , given his hard-line stance on law and order .
`` Well , even law and order must be underpinned by justice and mercy , '' she said .
`` And many people who I ’ ve @ @ @ @ @ @ @ very compelled by what he did for me and the compassion that he showed for me .
I wouldn ’ t dare speak to what other people think .
I just know what I feel and that I know that he had compassion upon me , and I know that my situation moved him to act .
...
I speak from a personal place .
I can ’ t speak for anyone else . ''
Johnson , 65 , began serving time in prison in 1996 for being involved in a nonviolent drug @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in prison plus 25 years despite it being her first offense .
Johnson was in prison for 22 years until Trump commuted her sentence in 2018 .
She became an advocate of criminal justice reform and helped inspire the First Step Act , a bipartisan criminal justice reform bill signed into law in 2018 .
During her speech on Thursday , Johnson spoke about her fight for more criminal justice reform .
`` The nearly 22 years I spent in prison were not wasted , '' Johnson said on Thursday .
`` God @ @ @ @ @ @ @ my life .
I was not delayed or denied .
I was destined for such a time as this . ''

Alice Marie Johnson, the woman whose lifelong prison sentence was cut short by President Trump, is standing by her appearance at the Republican National Convention.
The criminal justice reform advocate, who spoke about her journey to freedom at the GOP event, appeared for an interview with MSNBC on Friday and was pressed to answer for that appearance, despite her talk of wanting to stay out of politics, and reserved judgment on the question of whether she thinks Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden will also fight for criminal justice reform.
"I don’t know what Joe Biden would do," Johnson told MSNBC host Stephanie Ruhle on Friday. "I just know that with this administration, they’ve been open to the things that I’ve been bringing to the table. So, I’m so focused, Stephanie, on my mission that I’m not going to speak on what Joe Biden will or will not do. I’m going to speak to what I know."
Johnson said Biden's campaign hasn't reached out to her, but she's curious to know where everyone stands on reform moving forward. She added that she has been working with the White House on its current plan, and she feels confident about the path forward.
Johnson also pushed back on a question about whether she thinks others in the black community feel that Trump is a compassionate person, given his hard-line stance on law and order.
"Well, even law and order must be underpinned by justice and mercy," she said. "And many people who I’ve talked to, they are very, very compelled by what he did for me and the compassion that he showed for me. I wouldn’t dare speak to what other people think. I just know what I feel and that I know that he had compassion upon me, and I know that my situation moved him to act. ... I speak from a personal place. I can’t speak for anyone else."
Johnson, 65, began serving time in prison in 1996 for being involved in a nonviolent drug conspiracy. She was sentenced to life in prison plus 25 years despite it being her first offense.
Johnson was in prison for 22 years until Trump commuted her sentence in 2018. She became an advocate of criminal justice reform and helped inspire the First Step Act, a bipartisan criminal justice reform bill signed into law in 2018.
During her speech on Thursday, Johnson spoke about her fight for more criminal justice reform.
"The nearly 22 years I spent in prison were not wasted," Johnson said on Thursday. "God had a purpose and a plan for my life. I was not delayed or denied. I was destined for such a time as this."


thewashingtonexaminer--2020-08-29--'Kenosha is Nashua': Republicans see law and order as Trump path to victory in NH

Some Republican strategists in New Hampshire believe the state is the perfect battleground for President Trump to drive his “ law and order ” message against Democratic nominee Joe Biden , saying many communities there are similar to Kenosha , Wisconsin .
The Trump campaign selected New Hampshire for the president ’ s first post-convention rally .
He appeared at an event in Manchester Friday .
The decision to go back was made before a white police officer in Kenosha , Wisconsin , shot Jacob Blake , a black man , and protests set the city ’ s downtown businesses @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Kenosha is a facsimile of the sort of modest towns and employers that proliferate throughout their swing state , opening the possibility that voters will respond favorably to Trump ’ s claim that mayhem would engulf the country unchecked if Biden wins the presidency .
“ Kenosha is Nashua , Manchester , and every other small city in New Hampshire , ” said David Carney , a Republican strategist based there .
“ Those photos of small businesses have been burned into the mind ’ s eye of every small business owner and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ chaos and rioting in Wisconsin and D.C. seem far away from us here , but people are paying attention , ” a Republican operative in the state added .
“ It plays into Trump 's hands.
” Trump trails Biden by nearly 10 percentage points in New Hampshire in the RealClearPolitics average and enters the fall campaign there an underdog .
Even Republicans who believe the issue of public safety could help Trump in New Hampshire concede the president faces an uphill climb in his bid for the state ’ s four votes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ expressing confidence that Trump ’ s “ law and order ” pitch is not the silver bullet he is looking for to turn things around in New Hampshire .
`` Republicans are comfortable fictionalizing current events to rally their base , '' state Democratic Party spokeswoman Holly Shulman said .
Attempting to turn the issue back on Trump , Democrats point out that the civil unrest ( in Kenosha and elsewhere ) is unfolding on the president ’ s watch , while emphasizing that Biden has said specifically that he supports peaceful protests @ @ @ @ @ @ @ `` Like every other trope perpetuated by Donald Trump to keep voters from defecting , it is contradicted by his actual policy proposals of budget cuts for law enforcement , '' Shulman said .
`` Like Biden , Granite Staters believe Black Lives Matter , rallied to that effect over the summer all over the state in big cities and tiny communities , and want to see reform while still supporting public safety . ''
Democrats have experienced success there over the past four years , capturing the state legislature in the 2018 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ winning the mayoralty in Laconia , a community of 16,500 people that voted for Trump by 10 points in 2016 .
The Democrats control both Senate seats and New Hampshire ’ s two seats in the House .
That the state leans left on issues such as healthcare and abortion have helped the party with voters .
But Trump lost New Hampshire four years ago by just 2,736 votes , and the state ’ s governor , Republican Chris Sununu , is popular .
Those factors make the New England battleground an attractive @ @ @ @ @ @ @ opportunities to flip states the president lost in 2016 , which are few .
The Trump campaign is active on the ground , attempting to activate voters who stayed home last time but are deemed likely to support the president if they participate .
Some Republicans speculate Trump might benefit from the fact that the coronavirus has shut down on-campus instruction at New Hampshire colleges , potentially depriving Democrats of thousands of voters who would otherwise be living in the state and be registered there .
New Hampshire has loosened coronavirus restrictions on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Trump campaign ’ s message to voters there has revolved around the economy , rather than public safety , although that could change with the president ’ s visit .
“ President Trump nearly won New Hampshire in 2016 , and after delivering wins for the Granite State for over three years , it ’ s ripe for pickup this November , ” campaign spokeswoman Samantha Zager said .
Democrats emphasize that they are not taking Biden ’ s big , initial lead for granted .
This week , during the Republican convention @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 30 virtual grassroots training sessions with field volunteers .
And on Friday afternoon , the Democrats buffeted Trump ’ s planned evening airplane hangar rally with a press conference featuring former Sen. Gordon Humphrey , a Republican who is backing Biden .
In a state where independents vote in high numbers , this sort of endorsement could be helpful to the Democratic nominee .

Some Republican strategists in New Hampshire believe the state is the perfect battleground for President Trump to drive his “law and order” message against Democratic nominee Joe Biden, saying many communities there are similar to Kenosha, Wisconsin.
The Trump campaign selected New Hampshire for the president’s first post-convention rally. He appeared at an event in Manchester Friday.
The decision to go back was made before a white police officer in Kenosha, Wisconsin, shot Jacob Blake, a black man, and protests set the city’s downtown businesses ablaze. But New Hampshire Republicans say Kenosha is a facsimile of the sort of modest towns and employers that proliferate throughout their swing state, opening the possibility that voters will respond favorably to Trump’s claim that mayhem would engulf the country unchecked if Biden wins the presidency.
“Kenosha is Nashua, Manchester, and every other small city in New Hampshire,” said David Carney, a Republican strategist based there. “Those photos of small businesses have been burned into the mind’s eye of every small business owner and employee in New Hampshire.”
“The chaos and rioting in Wisconsin and D.C. seem far away from us here, but people are paying attention,” a Republican operative in the state added. “It plays into Trump's hands.”
Trump trails Biden by nearly 10 percentage points in New Hampshire in the RealClearPolitics average and enters the fall campaign there an underdog. Even Republicans who believe the issue of public safety could help Trump in New Hampshire concede the president faces an uphill climb in his bid for the state’s four votes in the Electoral College.
Democrats are expressing confidence that Trump’s “law and order” pitch is not the silver bullet he is looking for to turn things around in New Hampshire. "Republicans are comfortable fictionalizing current events to rally their base," state Democratic Party spokeswoman Holly Shulman said.
Attempting to turn the issue back on Trump, Democrats point out that the civil unrest (in Kenosha and elsewhere) is unfolding on the president’s watch, while emphasizing that Biden has said specifically that he supports peaceful protests but opposes violence under any circumstances.
"Like every other trope perpetuated by Donald Trump to keep voters from defecting, it is contradicted by his actual policy proposals of budget cuts for law enforcement," Shulman said. "Like Biden, Granite Staters believe Black Lives Matter, rallied to that effect over the summer all over the state in big cities and tiny communities, and want to see reform while still supporting public safety."
Democrats have experienced success there over the past four years, capturing the state legislature in the 2018 midterm elections and, last year, winning the mayoralty in Laconia, a community of 16,500 people that voted for Trump by 10 points in 2016. The Democrats control both Senate seats and New Hampshire’s two seats in the House. That the state leans left on issues such as healthcare and abortion have helped the party with voters.
But Trump lost New Hampshire four years ago by just 2,736 votes, and the state’s governor, Republican Chris Sununu, is popular. Those factors make the New England battleground an attractive target for a Trump campaign looking for opportunities to flip states the president lost in 2016, which are few. The Trump campaign is active on the ground, attempting to activate voters who stayed home last time but are deemed likely to support the president if they participate.
Some Republicans speculate Trump might benefit from the fact that the coronavirus has shut down on-campus instruction at New Hampshire colleges, potentially depriving Democrats of thousands of voters who would otherwise be living in the state and be registered there. New Hampshire has loosened coronavirus restrictions on businesses, and so far, the Trump campaign’s message to voters there has revolved around the economy, rather than public safety, although that could change with the president’s visit.
“President Trump nearly won New Hampshire in 2016, and after delivering wins for the Granite State for over three years, it’s ripe for pickup this November,” campaign spokeswoman Samantha Zager said.
Democrats emphasize that they are not taking Biden’s big, initial lead for granted.
This week, during the Republican convention, the New Hampshire Democratic Party oversaw 30 virtual grassroots training sessions with field volunteers. And on Friday afternoon, the Democrats buffeted Trump’s planned evening airplane hangar rally with a press conference featuring former Sen. Gordon Humphrey, a Republican who is backing Biden. In a state where independents vote in high numbers, this sort of endorsement could be helpful to the Democratic nominee.