principiascientificinternational--2020-07-09--Sign Up: ‘Question Everything’ Conference in Austin, Texas

Free-thinking citizens are cordially invited to sign up to partake in the 2020 ‘ Question Everything ’ Conference scheduled for @ @ @ @ @ 2020 .
The event is being hosted at the Hilton Garden Inn Austin Airport , @ @ @ @ @ Austin , Texas .
Among the guest speakers will be Joseph A Olson PE , @ @ @ @ @ and co-author of the ground-breaking book , Slaying the Sky Dragon : Death of the @ @ @ @ @ .
BUY LIVE STREAM & ARCHIVE TICKETS AT THE FOLLOWING LINK : https : //MixNstream.com/question-everything-ppv.html @ @ @ @ @ AT HILTON GARDEN INN FOR THIS EVENT AT THE FOLLOWING LINK : To Reserve a @ @ @ @ @ 2020 Conference at the Hilton Garden Inn for the Guaranteed Group Rate of $ 119 @ @ @ @ @ full details , please visit the web page at mixnstream.com PRINCIPIA SCIENTIFIC INTERNATIONAL , legally @ @ @ @ @ a company incorporated for charitable purposes .
Head Office : 27 Old Gloucester Street , @ @ @ @ @ Our Non-Profit Mission To Defend The Scientific Method .

Sign Up: ‘Question Everything’ Conference in Austin, Texas
Written by John O'Sullivan
Free-thinking citizens are cordially invited to sign up to partake in the 2020 ‘Question Everything’ Conference scheduled for Saturday/Sunday, November 7-8, 2020. The event is being hosted at the Hilton Garden Inn Austin Airport, 7610 John Glenn Way, Austin, Texas.
Among the guest speakers will be Joseph A Olson PE, co-founder of Principia Scientific International and co-author of the ground-breaking book, Slaying the Sky Dragon:Death of the Greenhouse Gas Theory.
This event will showcase multimedia presentations of researchers, college professors, and authors who question vitally important topics as is needed to maintain lawful government and moral society:
Conspiracy to commit Assassinations?
Conspiracy to stop free speech?
Conspiracy to conduct Disarmament Terrorism?
False flag Terrorism to alter foreign and domestic policy?
Weaponization of the Law to Punish Truth Seekers?
Judicial Corruption of Libel Law to Protect a Mass Media Cartel?
Bioweapons & Pandemics to Justify Martial Law?
Fake News to Justify Imposing a Police State?
Plundering and Looting of the innocent passed off as civil disobedience?
Censorship by the Social Media Giants?
Denial of Internet Utilities to Those Who Question a Mass Media Cartel?
Free Limited Archive With Seat Ticket After the completion of the Question Everything 2020 Conference those who bought a seat ticket will also be issued a comp password for free but limited access to the archived individual presentations and panel discussions.
2. BUY LIVE STREAM & ARCHIVE TICKETS AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:
https://MixNstream.com/question-everything-ppv.html
On the first of each month the price of the Live Stream Pay Per View tickets will go up $25 until August where it will remain steady until the Conference: Anxious! Now thru May $100 Thrilled! June $125 Excited! July $150 Can’t Wait! August $175 Just Heard About It! Sept $175 No Penalty For Being Late! October – on $175
3. RESERVE A ROOM AT HILTON GARDEN INN FOR THIS EVENT
AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:
To Reserve a Room
for the Question Everything 2020 Conference
at the Hilton Garden Inn
for the Guaranteed Group Rate of $119
click this LINK.
For full details, please visit the web page at mixnstream.com
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principiascientificinternational--2020-07-09--Top European Pathologist: SARS-CoV-2 Virus Possibly Fake

The president of the Bulgarian Pathology Association , Dr. Stoian Alexov , has said that European pathologists haven ’ t identified any antibodies that are specific for SARS-CoV-2 .
Dr. Stoian Alexov , has called the World Health Organization ( WHO ) a “ criminal medical organization ” for creating fear and hysteria without providing any actual verifiable proof a pandemic , according to him .
He made these statements sharing his observations in a video interview summarizing the consensus of participants in a May 8 , 2020 , European Society of Pathology ( ESP ) webinar on COVID-19 .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ , chair of the Center for Protection of Citizens ’ Rights in Sofia and a former Bulgarian deputy minister of health .
The video is on the BPA ’ s website , which also highlights some of Dr. Alexov ’ s key points .
What he says may be false .
It may not be false .
That ’ s up for the reader to decide .
These doctors and scientists are simply sharing what they ’ ve come across based on their experience thus far with regards to this pandemic .
That @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I put “ claims.
” It goes against information that ’ s been published .
For example , the National Institutes of Health ( NIH ) claim that “ Potent antibodies found in people recovered from COVID-19.
” ( source ) The official position of the Bulgarian Pathology Association is that “ COVID19 PCR Tests are Scientifically Meaningless.
” ( source ) An article written by Rosemary Frei , an MSc .
in molecular biology from the Faculty of Medicine at the University of Calgary , former freelance medical journalist for two decades @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , a retired writer , producer and director who now works as a Citizen journalist & filmmaker explains : Dr. Stoian Alexov called the World Health Organization ( WHO ) a “ criminal medical organization ” for creating worldwide fear and chaos without providing objectively verifiable proof of a pandemic .
Another stunning revelation from Bulgarian Pathology Association ( BPA ) president Dr. Alexov is that he believes it ’ s currently “ impossible ” to create a vaccine against the virus .
He also revealed that European pathologists haven ’ t identified @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
These stunning statements raise major questions , including about officials ’ and scientists ’ claims regarding the many vaccines they ’ re rushing into clinical trials around the world .
They also raise doubt about the veracity of claims of discovery of anti-novel-coronavirus antibodies ( which are beginning to be used to treat patients ) .
Novel-coronavirus-specific antibodies are supposedly the basis for the expensive serology test kits being used in many countries ( some of which have been found to be unacceptably inaccurate ) .
And they ’ re purportedly key @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Gates that are about to go into widespread use — in the form of the COVI-PASS — in 15 countries including the UK , US , and Canada .
The body forms antibodies specific to pathogens it encounters .
These specific antibodies are known as monoclonal antibodies and are a key tool in pathology .
This is done via immunohistochemistry , which involves tagging antibodies with colours and then coating the biopsy- or autopsy-tissue slides with them .
After giving the antibodies time to bind to the pathogens they ’ re specific for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ slides under a microscope and see the specific places where the coloured antibodies — and therefore the pathogens they ’ re bound to – are located .
Therefore , in the absence of monoclonal antibodies to the novel coronavirus , pathologists can not verify whether SARS-CoV-2 is present in the body , or whether the diseases and deaths attributed to it indeed were caused by the virus rather than by something else It would be easy to dismiss Dr. Alexov as just another crank ‘ conspiracy theorist.
’ After all many people believe @ @ @ @ @ @ @ spreading dangerous misinformation about COVID-19 and other issues .
In addition , little of what Dr. Alexov alleges was the consensus from the May 8 webinar is in the publicly viewable parts of the proceedings .
But keep in mind that whistleblowers often stand alone because the vast majority of people are afraid to speak out publicly .
Also , Dr. Alexov has an unimpugnable record and reputation .
He ’ s been a physician for 30 years .
He ’ s president of the BPA , a member of the ESP ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ histopathology department at the Oncology Hospital in the Bulgarian capital of Sofia .
On top of that , there ’ s other support for what Dr. Alexov is saying .
The article goes into much more detail , if interested , you can read it here .
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Top European Pathologist: SARS-CoV-2 Virus Possibly Fake
Written by Arjun Walia
The president of the Bulgarian Pathology Association, Dr. Stoian Alexov, has said that European pathologists haven’t identified any antibodies that are specific for SARS-CoV-2.
Dr. Stoian Alexov, has called the World Health Organization (WHO) a “criminal medical organization” for creating fear and hysteria without providing any actual verifiable proof a pandemic, according to him.
He made these statements sharing his observations in a video interview summarizing the consensus of participants in a May 8, 2020, European Society of Pathology (ESP) webinar on COVID-19.
It was conducted by Dr. Stoycho Katsarov, chair of the Center for Protection of Citizens’ Rights in Sofia and a former Bulgarian deputy minister of health. The video is on the BPA’s website, which also highlights some of Dr. Alexov’s key points.
What he says may be false. It may not be false. That’s up for the reader to decide. These doctors and scientists are simply sharing what they’ve come across based on their experience thus far with regards to this pandemic. That’s why in the title, I put “claims.”
It goes against information that’s been published. For example, the National Institutes of Health (NIH) claim that “Potent antibodies found in people recovered from COVID-19.” (source)
The official position of the Bulgarian Pathology Association is that “COVID19 PCR Tests are Scientifically Meaningless.” (source)
An article written by Rosemary Frei, an MSc. in molecular biology from the Faculty of Medicine at the University of Calgary, former freelance medical journalist for two decades, independent journalist, and Patrick Corbett, a retired writer, producer and director who now works as a Citizen journalist & filmmaker explains:
On top of that, there’s other support for what Dr. Alexov is saying. The article goes into much more detail, if interested, you can read it here.
More at www.collective-evolution.com
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principiascientificinternational--2020-07-10--Escaped Chinese Virologist Accuses Beijing of COVID Cover-Up

A highly respected Chinese virologist has fled Hong Kong and says that the Chinese government knew about COVID-19 long before they claim they did , and that her supervisors – some of the top experts in the field – ignored research she was conducting at the onset of the pandemic which she says could have saved lives , according to an exclusive interview with Fox News .
Dr. Li-Meng Yan , who specialized in virology and immunology at the Hong Kong School of Public Health , fled Hong Kong on April 28 on a Cathay Pacific flight to the United @ @ @ @ @ @ @ caught she could be jailed or “ disappeared.
” She adds that they likely had an obligation to tell the world , given their status as a World Health Organization reference laboratory specializing in influenza viruses and pandemics , especially as the virus began spreading in the early days of 2020 .
Yan , now in hiding , claims the government in the country where she was born is trying to shred her reputation and accuses government goons of choreographing a cyber-attack against her in hopes of keeping her quiet .
Yan believes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fears she can never go back to her home and lives with the hard truth that she ’ ll likely never see her friends or family there again .
Still , she says , the risk is worth it .
–Fox News “ The reason I came to the U.S. is because I deliver the message of the truth of COVID , ” Yan told Fox from an undisclosed location .
Yan says she was one of the first scientists in the world to study COVID-19 ( aside from Wuhan researchers , perhaps @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Poon , asked her to look into “ the odd cluster of SARS-like cases coming out of mainland China at the end of December 2019 , ” according to the report .
“ The China government refused to let overseas experts , including ones in Hong Kong , do research in China , ” she said .
“ So I turned to my friends to get more information.
” Yan ’ s mainland colleagues – one of whom worked at the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention , allegedly told Yan on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ between humans long before the CCP or the WHO reversed course and admitted this was possible .
After she told her boss of this , “ he just nodded , ” she says .
Days after her CCP contacts told her about human-to-human transmission , the WHO put out a statement on January 9 saying : “ According to Chinese authorities , the virus in question can cause severe illness in some patients and does not transmit readily between people… There is limited information to determine the overall risk of this reported cluster.
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ in China about the disease took a sharp turn after “ doctors and researchers who had been openly discussing the virus suddenly clammed up.
” Contacts in Wuhan went completely dark and others warned not to ask them about the virus – telling Yan “ We can ’ t talk about it , but we need to wear masks.
” “ There are many , many patients who don ’ t get treatment on time and diagnosis on time , ” said Yan , adding “ Hospital doctors are scared , but they @ @ @ @ @ @ @ scared.
” She said she reported her findings to her supervisor again on Jan. 16 but that ’ s when he allegedly told her “ to keep silent , and be careful.
” “ As he warned me before , ‘ Don ’ t touch the red line , ' ” Yan said referring to the government .
“ We will get in trouble and we ’ ll be disappeared.
” She also claims the co-director of a WHO-affiliated lab , Professor Malik Peiris , knew but didn ’ t do anything about @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to requests for comment .
The WHO website lists Peiris as an “ adviser ” on the WHO International Health Regulations Emergency Committee for Pneumonia due to the Novel Coronavirus 2019-nCoV .
Yan was frustrated , but not surprised –Fox News “ I already know that would happen because I know the corruption among this kind of international organization like the WHO to China government , and to China Communist Party , ” said Yan .
“ So basically… I accept it but I don ’ t want this misleading information to spread @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Professor Malik Peiris directly works for the organization , telling Fox in a statement “ Professor Malik Peiris is an infectious disease expert who has been on WHO missions and expert groups – as are many people eminent in their fields , ” adding “ That does not make him a WHO staff member , nor does he represent WHO.
” Read the rest of the report here .
Meanwhile , a local Beijing resident says the CCP is covering up new virus cases in a local neighborhood , according to the Epoch @ @ @ @ @ @ @ such great lengths to cover up a naturally occurring outbreak of an ultra-virulent coronavirus that they insist wasn ’ t created in one of their labs ?
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Escaped Chinese Virologist Accuses Beijing of COVID Cover-Up
Written by Tyler Durden
A highly respected Chinese virologist has fled Hong Kong and says that the Chinese government knew about COVID-19 long before they claim they did, and that her supervisors – some of the top experts in the field – ignored research she was conducting at the onset of the pandemic which she says could have saved lives, according to an exclusive interview with Fox News.
Dr. Li-Meng Yan, who specialized in virology and immunology at the Hong Kong School of Public Health, fled Hong Kong on April 28 on a Cathay Pacific flight to the United States, knowing that if she were caught she could be jailed or “disappeared.”
She adds that they likely had an obligation to tell the world, given their status as a World Health Organization reference laboratory specializing in influenza viruses and pandemics, especially as the virus began spreading in the early days of 2020. Yan, now in hiding, claims the government in the country where she was born is trying to shred her reputation and accuses government goons of choreographing a cyber-attack against her in hopes of keeping her quiet. Yan believes her life is in danger. She fears she can never go back to her home and lives with the hard truth that she’ll likely never see her friends or family there again. Still, she says, the risk is worth it. –Fox News
“The reason I came to the U.S. is because I deliver the message of the truth of COVID,” Yan told Fox from an undisclosed location.
Yan says she was one of the first scientists in the world to study COVID-19 (aside from Wuhan researchers, perhaps) after he supervisor, Dr. Leo Poon, asked her to look into “the odd cluster of SARS-like cases coming out of mainland China at the end of December 2019,” according to the report.
“The China government refused to let overseas experts, including ones in Hong Kong, do research in China,” she said. “So I turned to my friends to get more information.”
Yan’s mainland colleagues – one of whom worked at the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, allegedly told Yan on December 31 that the virus was transmissible between humans long before the CCP or the WHO reversed course and admitted this was possible. After she told her boss of this, “he just nodded,” she says.
Days after her CCP contacts told her about human-to-human transmission, the WHO put out a statement on January 9 saying: “According to Chinese authorities, the virus in question can cause severe illness in some patients and does not transmit readily between people… There is limited information to determine the overall risk of this reported cluster.”
The cover-up.
Yan said that discussion between colleagues in China about the disease took a sharp turn after “doctors and researchers who had been openly discussing the virus suddenly clammed up.” Contacts in Wuhan went completely dark and others warned not to ask them about the virus – telling Yan “We can’t talk about it, but we need to wear masks.”
“There are many, many patients who don’t get treatment on time and diagnosis on time,” said Yan, adding “Hospital doctors are scared, but they cannot talk. CDC staff are scared.”
She said she reported her findings to her supervisor again on Jan. 16 but that’s when he allegedly told her “to keep silent, and be careful.” “As he warned me before, ‘Don’t touch the red line,'” Yan said referring to the government. “We will get in trouble and we’ll be disappeared.” She also claims the co-director of a WHO-affiliated lab, Professor Malik Peiris, knew but didn’t do anything about it. Peiris also did not respond to requests for comment. The WHO website lists Peiris as an “adviser” on the WHO International Health Regulations Emergency Committee for Pneumonia due to the Novel Coronavirus 2019-nCoV. Yan was frustrated, but not surprised –Fox News
“I already know that would happen because I know the corruption among this kind of international organization like the WHO to China government, and to China Communist Party,” said Yan. “So basically… I accept it but I don’t want this misleading information to spread to the world.”
WHO denies that Professor Malik Peiris directly works for the organization, telling Fox in a statement “Professor Malik Peiris is an infectious disease expert who has been on WHO missions and expert groups – as are many people eminent in their fields,” adding “That does not make him a WHO staff member, nor does he represent WHO.”
Read the rest of the report here.
Meanwhile, a local Beijing resident says the CCP is covering up new virus cases in a local neighborhood, according to the Epoch Times:
Two people who live in the Liuyi residential compound, located in the city’s Daxing district, were recently found to be infected with the CCP virus, according to a resident named Ms. Li, who is familiar with local virus outbreak information. The entire compound, which is home to roughly 1,000 residents, was locked down after the new cases were discovered, on July 4; only one small gate remains open for grocery deliveries, she said. However, the Beijing municipal health commission hasn’t reported any confirmed patients from the Liuyi compound in recent days. Li shared with The Epoch Times a government list of local businesses and residential complexes that were mandated to conduct systematic disinfection and nucleic acid testing, including a total of 43 locations in Beijing. However, under the Daxing district category on the list, the Liuyi residential compound was missing, which Li believes is because Beijing authorities purposely sought to conceal the new infections. –Epoch Times
Why would China go to such great lengths to cover up a naturally occurring outbreak of an ultra-virulent coronavirus that they insist wasn’t created in one of their labs?
Read more at www.zerohedge.com
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principiascientificinternational--2020-07-10--10 fallacies about Arctic sea ice & polar bears

This updated blog post of mine from last year is as pertinent now as it was then : it ’ s a fully-referenced rebuttal to the misleading ‘ facts ’ so often presented this time of year to support the notion that polar bears are being harmed due to lack of summer sea ice .
Polar Bears International developed ‘ Arctic Sea Ice Day ’ ( 15 July ) to promote their skewed interpretation of polar bear science at the height of the Arctic melt season .
This year I ’ ve added a ‘ Polar Bears and the Arctic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are free to download and share .
For further information , see “ The Polar Bear Catastrophe That Never Happened “ .
Summer sea ice loss is finally ramping up : first year is disappearing , as it has done every year since ice came to the Arctic millions of years ago .
But critical misconceptions , fallacies , and disinformation abound regarding Arctic sea ice and polar bear survival .
Ahead of Arctic Sea Ice Day ( 15 July ) , here are 10 fallacies that teachers and parents especially need to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ contact me if you would like to examine any of the references included in this post .
These references are what make my efforts different from the activist organization Polar Bears International .
PBI virtually never provide references within the content it provides , including material it presents as ‘ educational ’ .
Links to previous posts of mine that provide expanded explanations , images , and additional references are also provided .
SEA ICE BACKGROUND : EXTENT OVER THE LAST YEAR Despite the fact that 2019 had the 2nd lowest extent for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by the end of June 2020 ( as was also the case in 2019 ) , there was still ice adjacent to all major polar bear denning areas across the Arctic ( see chart below ) .
In many regions – including Western Hudson Bay , Wrangel Island , and Franz Josef Land – pregnant females that will give birth on land in December come ashore in summer and stay until their newborn cubs are old enough to return with them to the ice the following spring .
See Andersen et al .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ ; Garner et al .
1994 ; Jonkel et al .
1978 ; Harington 1968 ; Kochnev 2018 ; Kolenosky and Prevett 1983 ; Larsen 1985 ; Olson et al .
2017 ; Richardson et al .
2005 ; Stirling and Andriashek 1992 .
1 .
‘ Sea ice is to the Arctic as soil is to a forest ‘ .
False : this all-or-nothing analogy is a specious comparison .
In fact , Arctic sea ice is like a big wetland pond that dries up a bit every summer , where the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ plants , amphibians and insects is reduced but does not disappear completely .
Wetland species are adapted to this habitat : they are able to survive the reduced water availability in the dry season because it happens every year .
Similarly , sea ice will always reform in the winter and stay until spring .
During the two million or so years that ice has formed in the Arctic , there has always been ice in the winter and spring ( even in warmer Interglacials than this one ) .
Moreover , I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ climate model that predicts winter ice will fail to develop over the next 80 years or so .
See Amstrup et al .
2007 ; Durner et al .
2009 ; Gibbard et al .
2007 ; Polak et al .
2010 ; Stroeve et al .
2007 .
2 .
Polar bears need summer sea ice to survive .
False : polar bears that have fed adequately on young seals in the early spring can live off their fat for five months or more until the fall , whether they spend the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ice .
Polar bears seldom catch seals in the summer because only predator-savvy adult seals are available and holes in the pack ice allow the seals many opportunities to escape ( see the BBC video below ) .
Polar bears and Arctic seals truly require sea ice from late fall through early spring only .
See Crockford 2017 , 2019 ; Hammill and Smith 1991:132 ; Obbard et al .
2016 ; Pilfold et al .
2016 ; Stirling 1974 ; Stirling and Øritsland 1995 ; Whiteman et al .
2015 .
3 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ all Arctic life .
Only partially true because plankton also thrives in open water during the Arctic summer , which ultimately provides food for the fish species that ringed and bearded seals eat during the summer , which fattens the seals up before the long Arctic winter ( as the graphic below shows ) .
Recent research has shown that less ice in summer has improved ringed and bearded seal health and survival over conditions that existed in the 1980s ( when there was a shorter ice-free season and fewer fish to eat @ @ @ @ @ @ @ seal populations have been a boon for the polar bears that depend on them for food in early spring .
For example , despite living with the most profound decline of summer sea ice in the Arctic polar bears in the Barents Sea around Svalbard are thriving , as are Chukchi Sea polar bears – both contrary to predictions made in 2007 that resulted in polar bears being declared ‘ threatened ’ with extinction under the Endangered Species Act .
See Aars 2018 ; Aars et al .
2017 ; Amstrup et al @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2015 ; Crawford and Quakenbush 2013 ; Crawford et al .
2015 ; Crockford 2017 , 2019 ; Frey et al .
2018 ; Kovacs et al .
2016 ; Lippold et al .
2019 ; Lowry 2016 ; Regehr et al .
2018 ; Rode and Regehr 2010 ; Rode et al .
2013 , 2014 , 2015 , 2018 .
4 .
Open water in early spring as well as summer ice melt since 1979 are unnatural and detrimental to polar bear survival .
False : melting ice is a normal @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Arctic .
In the winter and spring , a number of areas of open water appear because wind and currents rearrange the pack ice – this is not melt , but rather normal polynya formation and expansion .
Polynyas and widening shore leads provide a beneficial mix of ice resting platform and nutrient-laden open water that attracts Arctic seals and provides excellent hunting opportunities for polar bears .
The map below shows Canadian polynyas and shore leads known in the 1970s : similar patches of open water routinely develop in spring off eastern @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Arctic Ocean .
See Dunbar 1981 ; Grenfell and Maykut 1977 ; Hare and Montgomery 1949 ; Smith and Rigby 1981 ; Stirling and Cleator 1981 ; Stirling et al .
1981 , 1993 .
5 .
Climate models do a good job of predicting future polar bear habitat .
False : My recent book , The Polar Bear Catastrophe That Never Happened , explains that the almost 50 % decline in summer sea ice that was not expected until 2050 actually arrived in 2007 , where it has been ever since @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
That is an extraordinarily bad track record of sea ice prediction .
Also , contrary to predictions made by climate modelers , first year ice has already replaced much of the multi-year ice in the southern and eastern portion of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago , to the benefit of polar bears .
See also ACIA 2005 ; Crockford 2017 , 2019 ; Durner et al .
2009 ; Hamilton et al .
2014 ; Heide-Jorgensen et al .
2012 ; Perovich et al .
2018 ; Stern and Laidre 2016 ; Stroeve @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ; Wang and Overland 2012 .
6 .
Sea ice is getting thinner and that ’ s a problem for polar bears .
False : First year ice ( less than about 2 metres thick ) is the best habit for polar bears because it is also the best habitat for Arctic seals .
Very thick multi-year ice that has been replaced by first year ice that melts completely every summer creates more good habitat for seals and bears in the spring , when they need it the most .
This has happened @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago ( see ice chart below from Sept 2016 ) .
Because of such changes in ice thickness , the population of polar bears in Kane Basin ( off NW Greenland ) has more than doubled since the late 1990s and numbers of bears in M ’ Clintock Channel ( in the SE Archipelago ) have reportedly also increased .
See Atwood et al .
2016 ; Durner et al .
2009 ; Lang et al .
2017 ; Stirling et al .
1993 ; SWG 2016 .
7 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Hudson Bay are most at risk of extinction due to global warming .
False : Ice decline in Hudson Bay has been among the lowest across the Arctic .
Sea ice decline in Hudson Bay ( see graphs below ) has been less than one day per year since 1979 compared to more than 4 days per year in the Barents Sea .
Hudson Bay ice decline also uniquely happened as a sudden step-change in 1998 : there has not been a slow and steady decline .
Since 1998 , the ice-free season @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 3 weeks longer overall than it was in the 1980s but has not become any longer over the last 22 years despite declines in total Arctic sea ice extent or increased carbon dioxide emissions .
Ice coverage over Hudson Bay at the end of June in 2020 was as high as last year , providing good sea ice conditions for WH and SH polar bears for the last five years at least .
See Castro de la Guardia et al .
2017 ; Regehr et al .
2016 .
8 .
Breakup of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ occurs three weeks earlier than it did in the 1980s .
False : Breakup now occurs about 2 weeks earlier in summer than it did in the 1980s .
The total length of the ice-free season is now about 3 weeks longer ( with lots of year-to-year variation ) .
WH polar bears tagged last year were still on the ice at the end of June 2020 .
See Castro de la Guardia et al .
2017 ; Cherry et al .
2013 ; Lunn et al .
2016 ; and video below @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the ice at Cape Churchill , Western Hudson Bay , on 5 July 2019 – fat and healthy after eating well during the spring : 9 .
Winter sea ice has been declining since 1979 , putting polar bear survival at risk .
Only partially true : while sea ice in winter ( i.e .
March ) has been declining gradually since 1979 ( see graph below from NOAA ) , there is no evidence to suggest this has negatively impacted polar bear health or survival , as the decline has been quite @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the beginning of this post shows that in 2020 there was plenty of ice remaining in March to meet the needs of polar bears and their primary prey ( ringed and bearded seals ) , despite 2019 being the 11th lowest since 1979 ( and the highest since 2013 ) .
10 .
Experts say that with 19 different polar bear subpopulations across the Arctic , there are “ 19 sea ice scenarios playing out “ ( see also here ) , implying this is what they predicted all along .
False : @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of polar bears , biologists at the US Geological Survey in 2007 grouped polar bear subpopulations with similar sea ice types ( which they called ‘ polar bear ecoregions , ’ see map below ) .
Their predictions of polar bear survival were based on assumptions of how the ice in these four sea ice regions would change over time ( with areas in green and purple being similarly extremely vulnerable to effects of climate change ) .
However , it turns out that there is much more variation within and between regions @ @ @ @ @ @ @ responses to summer sea ice loss than predicted : contrary to predictions , the Barents Sea has had a far greater decline in summer ice extent than any other region , and both Western and Southern Hudson Bay have had relatively little ( see # 7 ) .
See Amstrup et al .
2007 ; Atwood et al .
2016 ; Crockford 2017 , 2019 , 2020 ; Durner et al .
2009 ; Lippold et al .
2019 ; Regehr et al .
2016 .
My latest book , The Polar Bear @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this prediction based on sea ice ecoregions failed so miserably .
Aars , J .
2018 .
Population changes in polar bears : protected , but quickly losing habitat .
Fram Forum Newsletter 2018 .
Fram Centre , Tromso .
Download pdf here ( 32 mb ) .
Aars , J. , Marques , T.A , Lone , K. , Anderson , M. , Wiig , Ø. , Fløystad , I.M.B.
, Hagen , S.B .
and Buckland , S.T .
2017 .
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10 fallacies about Arctic sea ice & polar bears
Written by Susan J Crockford PhD
This updated blog post of mine from last year is as pertinent now as it was then: it’s a fully-referenced rebuttal to the misleading ‘facts’ so often presented this time of year to support the notion that polar bears are being harmed due to lack of summer sea ice.
Polar Bears International developed ‘Arctic Sea Ice Day’ (15 July) to promote their skewed interpretation of polar bear science at the height of the Arctic melt season. This year I’ve added a ‘Polar Bears and the Arctic Food Chain‘ graphic, which readers are free to download and share. For further information, see “The Polar Bear Catastrophe That Never Happened“.
Summer sea ice loss is finally ramping up: first year is disappearing, as it has done every year since ice came to the Arctic millions of years ago. But critical misconceptions, fallacies, and disinformation abound regarding Arctic sea ice and polar bear survival. Ahead of Arctic Sea Ice Day (15 July), here are 10 fallacies that teachers and parents especially need to know about.
As always, please contact me if you would like to examine any of the references included in this post. These references are what make my efforts different from the activist organization Polar Bears International. PBI virtually never provide references within the content it provides, including material it presents as ‘educational’. Links to previous posts of mine that provide expanded explanations, images, and additional references are also provided.
SEA ICE BACKGROUND: EXTENT OVER THE LAST YEAR
Summer sea ice minimum 2019 (from NSIDC):
Winter sea ice maximum 2020:
Sea ice at 7 July 2019: early summer extent
Despite the fact that 2019 had the 2nd lowest extent for the month of June since 1979, by the end of June 2020 (as was also the case in 2019), there was still ice adjacent to all major polar bear denning areas across the Arctic (see chart below).
In many regions – including Western Hudson Bay, Wrangel Island, and Franz Josef Land – pregnant females that will give birth on land in December come ashore in summer and stay until their newborn cubs are old enough to return with them to the ice the following spring. See Andersen et al. 2012; Ferguson et al. 2000; Garner et al. 1994; Jonkel et al. 1978; Harington 1968; Kochnev 2018; Kolenosky and Prevett 1983; Larsen 1985; Olson et al. 2017; Richardson et al. 2005; Stirling and Andriashek 1992.
TEN FALLACIES AND DISINFORMATION ABOUT SEA ICE
1. ‘Sea ice is to the Arctic as soil is to a forest‘. False: this all-or-nothing analogy is a specious comparison. In fact, Arctic sea ice is like a big wetland pond that dries up a bit every summer, where the amount of habitat available to sustain aquatic plants, amphibians and insects is reduced but does not disappear completely. Wetland species are adapted to this habitat: they are able to survive the reduced water availability in the dry season because it happens every year. Similarly, sea ice will always reform in the winter and stay until spring. During the two million or so years that ice has formed in the Arctic, there has always been ice in the winter and spring (even in warmer Interglacials than this one). Moreover, I am not aware of a single modern climate model that predicts winter ice will fail to develop over the next 80 years or so. See Amstrup et al. 2007; Durner et al. 2009; Gibbard et al. 2007; Polak et al. 2010; Stroeve et al. 2007.
2. Polar bears need summer sea ice to survive. False: polar bears that have fed adequately on young seals in the early spring can live off their fat for five months or more until the fall, whether they spend the summer on land or the Arctic pack ice. Polar bears seldom catch seals in the summer because only predator-savvy adult seals are available and holes in the pack ice allow the seals many opportunities to escape (see the BBC video below). Polar bears and Arctic seals truly require sea ice from late fall through early spring only. See Crockford 2017, 2019; Hammill and Smith 1991:132; Obbard et al. 2016; Pilfold et al. 2016; Stirling 1974; Stirling and Øritsland 1995; Whiteman et al. 2015.
3. Ice algae is the basis for all Arctic life. Only partially true because plankton also thrives in open water during the Arctic summer, which ultimately provides food for the fish species that ringed and bearded seals eat during the summer, which fattens the seals up before the long Arctic winter (as the graphic below shows).
Recent research has shown that less ice in summer has improved ringed and bearded seal health and survival over conditions that existed in the 1980s (when there was a shorter ice-free season and fewer fish to eat): as a consequence, abundant seal populations have been a boon for the polar bears that depend on them for food in early spring. For example, despite living with the most profound decline of summer sea ice in the Arctic polar bears in the Barents Sea around Svalbard are thriving, as are Chukchi Sea polar bears – both contrary to predictions made in 2007 that resulted in polar bears being declared ‘threatened’ with extinction under the Endangered Species Act. See Aars 2018; Aars et al. 2017; Amstrup et al. 2007; Arrigo and van Dijken 2015; Crawford and Quakenbush 2013; Crawford et al. 2015; Crockford 2017, 2019; Frey et al. 2018; Kovacs et al. 2016; Lippold et al. 2019; Lowry 2016; Regehr et al. 2018; Rode and Regehr 2010; Rode et al. 2013, 2014, 2015, 2018.
4. Open water in early spring as well as summer ice melt since 1979 are unnatural and detrimental to polar bear survival. False: melting ice is a normal part of the seasonal changes in the Arctic. In the winter and spring, a number of areas of open water appear because wind and currents rearrange the pack ice – this is not melt, but rather normal polynya formation and expansion. Polynyas and widening shore leads provide a beneficial mix of ice resting platform and nutrient-laden open water that attracts Arctic seals and provides excellent hunting opportunities for polar bears. The map below shows Canadian polynyas and shore leads known in the 1970s: similar patches of open water routinely develop in spring off eastern Greenland and along the Russian coast of the Arctic Ocean. See Dunbar 1981; Grenfell and Maykut 1977; Hare and Montgomery 1949; Smith and Rigby 1981; Stirling and Cleator 1981; Stirling et al. 1981, 1993.
5. Climate models do a good job of predicting future polar bear habitat. False: My recent book, The Polar Bear Catastrophe That Never Happened, explains that the almost 50{154653b9ea5f83bbbf00f55de12e21cba2da5b4b158a426ee0e27ae0c1b44117} decline in summer sea ice that was not expected until 2050 actually arrived in 2007, where it has been ever since (yet polar bears are thriving). That is an extraordinarily bad track record of sea ice prediction. Also, contrary to predictions made by climate modelers, first year ice has already replaced much of the multi-year ice in the southern and eastern portion of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, to the benefit of polar bears. See also ACIA 2005; Crockford 2017, 2019; Durner et al. 2009; Hamilton et al. 2014; Heide-Jorgensen et al. 2012; Perovich et al. 2018; Stern and Laidre 2016; Stroeve et al. 2007; SWG 2016; Wang and Overland 2012.
6. Sea ice is getting thinner and that’s a problem for polar bears. False: First year ice (less than about 2 metres thick) is the best habit for polar bears because it is also the best habitat for Arctic seals. Very thick multi-year ice that has been replaced by first year ice that melts completely every summer creates more good habitat for seals and bears in the spring, when they need it the most. This has happened especially in the southern and eastern portions of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (see ice chart below from Sept 2016). Because of such changes in ice thickness, the population of polar bears in Kane Basin (off NW Greenland) has more than doubled since the late 1990s and numbers of bears in M’Clintock Channel (in the SE Archipelago) have reportedly also increased. See Atwood et al. 2016; Durner et al. 2009; Lang et al. 2017; Stirling et al. 1993; SWG 2016.
7. Polar bears in Western and Southern Hudson Bay are most at risk of extinction due to global warming. False: Ice decline in Hudson Bay has been among the lowest across the Arctic. Sea ice decline in Hudson Bay (see graphs below) has been less than one day per year since 1979 compared to more than 4 days per year in the Barents Sea. Hudson Bay ice decline also uniquely happened as a sudden step-change in 1998: there has not been a slow and steady decline. Since 1998, the ice-free season in Western Hudson Bay has been about 3 weeks longer overall than it was in the 1980s but has not become any longer over the last 22 years despite declines in total Arctic sea ice extent or increased carbon dioxide emissions. Ice coverage over Hudson Bay at the end of June in 2020 was as high as last year, providing good sea ice conditions for WH and SH polar bears for the last five years at least. See Castro de la Guardia et al. 2017; Regehr et al. 2016.
8. Breakup of sea ice in Western Hudson Bay now occurs three weeks earlier than it did in the 1980s. False: Breakup now occurs about 2 weeks earlier in summer than it did in the 1980s. The total length of the ice-free season is now about 3 weeks longer (with lots of year-to-year variation). WH polar bears tagged last year were still on the ice at the end of June 2020. See Castro de la Guardia et al. 2017; Cherry et al. 2013; Lunn et al. 2016; and video below, showing the first bear spotted off the ice at Cape Churchill, Western Hudson Bay, on 5 July 2019 – fat and healthy after eating well during the spring:
9. Winter sea ice has been declining since 1979, putting polar bear survival at risk. Only partially true: while sea ice in winter (i.e. March) has been declining gradually since 1979 (see graph below from NOAA), there is no evidence to suggest this has negatively impacted polar bear health or survival, as the decline has been quite minimal. The sea ice chart at the beginning of this post shows that in 2020 there was plenty of ice remaining in March to meet the needs of polar bears and their primary prey (ringed and bearded seals), despite 2019 being the 11th lowest since 1979 (and the highest since 2013).
10. Experts say that with 19 different polar bear subpopulations across the Arctic, there are “19 sea ice scenarios playing out“ (see also here), implying this is what they predicted all along. False: In order to predict the future survival of polar bears, biologists at the US Geological Survey in 2007 grouped polar bear subpopulations with similar sea ice types (which they called ‘polar bear ecoregions,’ see map below). Their predictions of polar bear survival were based on assumptions of how the ice in these four sea ice regions would change over time (with areas in green and purple being similarly extremely vulnerable to effects of climate change). However, it turns out that there is much more variation within and between regions than they expected and more differences in responses to summer sea ice loss than predicted: contrary to predictions, the Barents Sea has had a far greater decline in summer ice extent than any other region, and both Western and Southern Hudson Bay have had relatively little (see #7). See Amstrup et al. 2007; Atwood et al. 2016; Crockford 2017, 2019, 2020; Durner et al. 2009; Lippold et al. 2019; Regehr et al. 2016. My latest book, The Polar Bear Catastrophe That Never Happened, explains why this prediction based on sea ice ecoregions failed so miserably.
REFERENCES
Aars, J. 2018. Population changes in polar bears: protected, but quickly losing habitat. Fram Forum Newsletter 2018. Fram Centre, Tromso. Download pdf here (32 mb).
Aars, J., Marques,T.A, Lone, K., Anderson, M., Wiig, Ø., Fløystad, I.M.B., Hagen, S.B. and Buckland, S.T. 2017. The number and distribution of polar bears in the western Barents Sea. Polar Research 36:1. 1374125. doi:10.1080/17518369.2017.1374125
ACIA 2005. Arctic Climate Impact Assessment: Scientific Report. Cambridge University Press. See their graphics package of sea ice projections here.
AMAP 2017. [ACIA 2005 update]. Snow, Water, Ice, and Permafrost in the Arctic Summary for Policy Makers (Second Impact Assessment). Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme, Oslo. pdf here.
Amstrup, S.C. 2003. Polar bear (Ursus maritimus). In Wild Mammals of North America, G.A. Feldhamer, B.C. Thompson and J.A. Chapman (eds), pg. 587-610. Johns Hopkins University Press, Baltimore.
Amstrup, S.C., Marcot, B.G. & Douglas, D.C. 2007. Forecasting the rangewide status of polar bears at selected times in the 21st century. US Geological Survey. Reston, VA. Pdf here
Andersen, M., Derocher, A.E., Wiig, Ø. and Aars, J. 2012. Polar bear (Ursus maritimus) maternity den distribution in Svalbard, Norway. Polar Biology 35:499-508.
Arrigo, K.R. and van Dijken, G.L. 2015. Continued increases in Arctic Ocean primary production. Progress in Oceanography 136: 60-70. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2015.05.002
Atwood, T.C., Marcot, B.G., Douglas, D.C., Amstrup, S.C., Rode, K.D., Durner, G.M. et al. 2016. Forecasting the relative influence of environmental and anthropogenic stressors on polar bears. Ecosphere 7(6): e01370.
Castro de la Guardia, L., Myers, P.G., Derocher, A.E., Lunn, N.J., Terwisscha van Scheltinga, A.D. 2017. Sea ice cycle in western Hudson Bay, Canada, from a polar bear perspective. Marine Ecology Progress Series 564: 225–233. http://www.int-res.com/abstracts/meps/v564/p225-233/
Cherry, S.G., Derocher, A.E., Thiemann, G.W., Lunn, N.J. 2013. Migration phenology and seasonal fidelity of an Arctic marine predator in relation to sea ice dynamics. Journal of Animal Ecology 82:912-921. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1365-2656.12050/abstract
Crawford, J. and Quakenbush, L. 2013. Ringed seals and climate change: early predictions versus recent observations in Alaska. Oral presentation by Justin Crawfort, 28th Lowell Wakefield Fisheries Symposium, March 26-29. Anchorage, AK. Abstract below, find pdf here:http://seagrant.uaf.edu/conferences/2013/wakefield-arctic-ecosystems/program.php
Crawford, J.A., Quakenbush, L.T. and Citta, J.J. 2015. A comparison of ringed and bearded seal diet, condition and productivity between historical (1975–1984) and recent (2003–2012) periods in the Alaskan Bering and Chukchi seas. Progress in Oceanography 136:133-150.
Crockford, S.J. 2017. Testing the hypothesis that routine sea ice coverage of 3-5 mkm2 results in a greater than 30{154653b9ea5f83bbbf00f55de12e21cba2da5b4b158a426ee0e27ae0c1b44117} decline in population size of polar bears (Ursus maritimus). PeerJ Preprints 19 January 2017. Doi: 10.7287/peerj.preprints.2737v1 Open access. https://peerj.com/preprints/2737/
Crockford, S.J. 2019. The Polar Bear Catastrophe That Never Happened. Global Warming Policy Foundation, London. Available in paperback and ebook formats.
Crockford, S.J. 2020. State of the Polar Bear Report 2019. Global Warming Policy Foundation Report 39, London. pdf here.
Derocher, A.E., Wiig, Ø., and Andersen, M. 2002. Diet composition of polar bears in Svalbard and the western Barents Sea. Polar Biology 25 (6): 448-452. http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00300-002-0364-0
Dunbar, M.J. 1981. Physical causes and biological significance of polynyas and other open water in sea ice. In: Polynyas in the Canadian Arctic, Stirling, I. and Cleator, H. (eds), pg. 29-43. Canadian Wildlife Service, Occasional Paper No. 45. Ottawa.
Durner, G.M. and Amstrup, S.C. 1996. Mass and body-dimension relationships of polar bears in northern Alaska. Wildlife Society Bulletin 24(3):480-484.
Durner, G.M., Douglas, D.C., Nielson, R.M., Amstrup, S.C., McDonald, T.L., et al. 2009. Predicting 21st-century polar bear habitat distribution from global climate models. Ecology Monographs 79: 25–58.
Ferguson, S. H., Taylor, M. K., Rosing-Asvid, A., Born, E.W. and Messier, F. 2000. Relationships between denning of polar bears and conditions of sea ice. Journal of Mammalogy 81: 1118-1127.
Frey, K.E., Comiso, J.C., Cooper, L.W., Grebmeier, J.M., and Stock, L.V. 2018. Arctic Ocean primary productivity: the response of marine algae to climate warming and sea ice decline. NOAA Arctic Report Card: Update for 2018. https://arctic.noaa.gov/Report-Card/Report-Card-2018/ArtMID/7878/ArticleID/778/Arctic-Ocean-Primary-Productivity-The-Response-of-Marine-Algae-to-Climate-Warming-and-Sea-Ice-Decline
Garner, G.W., Belikov, S.E., Stishov, M.S., Barnes, V.G., and Arthur, S.M. 1994. Dispersal patterns of maternal polar bears from the denning concentration on Wrangel Island. International Conference on Bear Research and Management 9(1):401-410.
Gibbard, P. L., Boreham, S., Cohen, K. M. and Moscariello, A. 2005. Global chronostratigraphical correlation table for the last 2.7 million years, modified/updated 2007. Boreas 34(1) unpaginated and University of Cambridge, Cambridge Quaternary http://www.qpg.geog.cam.ac.uk/
Grenfell, T.C. and Maykut, G. A. 1977. The optical properties of ice and snow in the Arctic Basin. Journal of Glaciology 18 (80):445-463. http://www.ingentaconnect.com/contentone/igsoc/jog/1977/00000018/00000080/art00008
Hamilton, S.G., Castro de la Guardia, L., Derocher, A.E., Sahanatien, V., Tremblay, B. and Huard, D. 2014. Projected polar bear sea ice habitat in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. PLoS One 9(11):e113746.
Hammill, M.O. and Smith T.G. 1991. The role of predation in the ecology of the ringed seal in Barrow Strait, Northwest Territories, Canada. Marine Mammal Science 7:123–135.
Hare, F.K. and Montgomery, M.R. 1949. Ice, Open Water, and Winter Climate in the Eastern Arctic of North America: Part II. Arctic 2(3):149-164. http://arctic.journalhosting.ucalgary.ca/arctic/index.php/arctic/article/view/3985 Pdf here.
[see also: Hare, F.K. and Montgomery, M.R. 1949. Ice, Open Water, and Winter Climate in the Eastern Arctic of North America: Part I. Arctic 2(2):79-89. http://arctic.journalhosting.ucalgary.ca/arctic/index.php/arctic/article/view/3976 ]
Harington, C. R. 1968. Denning habits of the polar bear (Ursus maritimus Phipps). Canadian Wildlife Service Report Series 5.
Heide-Jorgensen, M.P., Laidre, K.L., Quakenbush, L.T. and Citta, J.J. 2012. The Northwest Passage opens for bowhead whales. Biology Letters 8(2):270-273. doi:10.1098/rsbl.2011.0731
Jonkel, C., Land, E. and Redhead, R. 1978. The productivity of polar bears () in the southeastern Baffin Island area, Northwest Territories. Canadian Wildlife Service Progress Notes 91.
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Kolenosky, G.B. and Prevett, J.P. 1983. Productivity and maternity denning of polar bears in Ontario. Bears: Their Biology and Management 5:238-245.
Kovacs, K.M. 2016. Erignathus barbatus. The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species 2016: e.T8010A45225428. http://www.iucnredlist.org/details/full/8010/0
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Larsen, T. 1985. Polar bear denning and cub production in Svalbard, Norway. Journal of Wildlife Management 49:320-326.
Lippold, A., Bourgeon, S., Aars, J., Andersen, M., Polder, A., Lyche, J.L., Bytingsvik, J., Jenssen, B.M., Derocher, A.E., Welker, J.M. and Routti, H. 2019. Temporal trends of persistent organic pollutants in Barents Sea polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in relation to changes in feeding habits and body condition. Environmental Science and Technology 53(2):984-995.
Lowry, L. 2016. Pusa hispida. The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species 2016: e.T41672A45231341. http://www.iucnredlist.org/details/41672/0
Lunn, N.J., Servanty, S., Regehr, E.V., Converse, S.J., Richardson, E. and Stirling, I. 2016. Demography of an apex predator at the edge of its range – impacts of changing sea ice on polar bears in Hudson Bay. Ecological Applications 26(5):1302-1320. DOI: 10.1890/15-1256
Morrison, A. and Kay, J. 2014. “Short-term Sea Ice Gains Don’t Eliminate Long-term Threats.” Polar Bears International, “Scientists & Explorers Blog” posted 22 September 2014. https://web.archive.org/web/20150509003221/http://www.polarbearsinternational.org/news-room/scientists-and-explorers-blog/short-term-sea-ice-gains-dont-eliminate-long-term-threats
Obbard, M.E., Cattet, M.R.I., Howe, E.J., Middel, K.R., Newton, E.J., Kolenosky, G.B., Abraham, K.F. and Greenwood, C.J. 2016. Trends in body condition in polar bears (Ursus maritimus) from the Southern Hudson Bay subpopulation in relation to changes in sea ice. Arctic Science 2:15-32. 10.1139/AS-2015-0027 http://www.nrcresearchpress.com/doi/abs/10.1139/AS-2015-0027#.VvFtlXpUq50
Overland, J.E. and Wang, M. 2013. When will the summer Arctic be nearly sea ice free? Geophysical Research Letters 40: 2097-2101.
Perovich, D., Meier, W., Tschudi, M.,Farrell, S., Hendricks, S., Gerland, S., Haas, C., Krumpen, T., Polashenski, C., Ricker, R. and Webster, M. 2018. Sea ice. Arctic Report Card 2018, NOAA. https://www.arctic.noaa.gov/Report-Card/Report-Card-2018
Pilfold, N. W., Derocher, A. E., Stirling, I. and Richardson, E. 2015 in press. Multi-temporal factors influence predation for polar bears in a changing climate. Oikos. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/oik.02000/abstract
Polyak, L., Alley, R.B., Andrews, J.T., Brigham-Grette, J., Cronin, T.M., Darby, D.A., Dyke, A.S., Fitzpatrick, J.J., Funder, S., Holland, M., Jennings, A.E., Miller, G.H., O’Regan, M., Savelle, J., Serreze, M., St. John, K., White, J.W.C. and Wolff, E. 2010. History of sea ice in the Arctic. Quaternary Science Reviews 29:1757-1778.
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Rode, K.D., Douglas, D., Durner, G., Derocher, A.E., Thiemann, G.W., and Budge, S. 2013. Variation in the response of an Arctic top predator experiencing habitat loss: feeding and reproductive ecology of two polar bear populations. Oral presentation by Karyn Rode, 28th Lowell Wakefield Fisheries Symposium, March 26-29. Anchorage, AK.
Rode, K.D., Regehr, E.V., Douglas, D., Durner, G., Derocher, A.E., Thiemann, G.W., and Budge, S. 2014. Variation in the response of an Arctic top predator experiencing habitat loss: feeding and reproductive ecology of two polar bear populations. Global Change Biology 20(1):76-88. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.12339/abstract
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Rode, K.D., Wilson, R.R., Regehr, E.V., St. Martin, M., Douglas, D.C. & Olson, J. 2015. Increased land use by Chukchi Sea polar bears in relation to changing sea ice conditions. PLoS One 10 e0142213.
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principiascientificinternational--2020-07-10--Europe is Chasing Ambitious Hydrogen Fuel Dream

In the panorama of renewable energy technologies , hydrogen ’ s potential is seen in several sectors .
It is what the IEA calls an ‘ integration ’ technology .
It promises to play a cross-sectoral role throughout the energy system , contributing simultaneously to decarbonization in various ways .
It can make clean energy sources more efficient and increase overall system flexibility .
What has increased its appeal , beyond the basic need to address climate change , is the remarkable decline in the cost of renewable energy , which makes the large-scale production of low-carbon hydrogen more feasible @ @ @ @ @ @ @ number of plans and pilot projects throughout the world , reaching a high point of announcements for new projects last year .
Now the outlines of how hydrogen will function in future energy systems , and the pathways to get there , are beginning to appear .
One region of particular importance is northern Europe .
But it is a critical moment when momentum has slowed in large part due to the pandemic .
With recovery , it is not certain that investment in low-carbon hydrogen applications will continue to grow .
Strong @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will be required to spur demand and foster markets .
The current actual worldwide production of low-carbon hydrogen is a tiny amount .
However , there is a growing activity on several fronts , with new pilot and early commercial projects appearing with unprecedented momentum until this year .
They suggest how government and business will give birth to clean hydrogen markets .
Experts have noticed a shift in emphasis .
Up until recently , the transport sector has been the center of focus for clean hydrogen , with efforts to develop fuel @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hydrogen refueling stations .
Some impressive gains have been made .
According to the IEA , the FCEV market has continued to expand especially in China , Japan and Korea .
And at the end of 2019 , there were 470 hydrogen refueling stations in operation worldwide , an increase of more than 20 % from 2018 .
There has even been production of two fuel cell trains by Alstom in Germany , with more coming next year .
But the area of activity is expanding beyond transport .
Governments and companies are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with projects in key end-use technologies and low-carbon production .
Although the starting point is low , new projects are for large scale deployment of electrolysers of a hundred megawatts .
They have applications in heavy industry , chemical production , heat for cities , and the all-important area of energy storage .
A glance at a few major projects shows the extent of planning for large scale electrolysis , industrial applications , and the deployment of gas grids to carry hydrogen for multiple purposes .
These appear in the IEA ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ comprehensive record of low-carbon hydrogen projects commissioned , in planning or construction worldwide for the past twenty years .
The database can be accessed on-line .
The shifting emphasis can be seen especially in Northern Europe , where large concentrations of projects are now found .
Renewable energy will power electrolysers to produce hydrogen for industries in northern industrial centers .
Other projects focus on power and heat for urban districts .
Key applications include large-scale electrolysis , carbon capture , utilization and storage ( CCUS ) , and utilization of natural gas @ @ @ @ @ @ @ number of planned projects for hydrogen electrolysers that would produce hydrogen from decarbonized electricity .
German and French projects are leaders .
In Germany , a power-to-gas project in Emsland in the Ruhr region has been called ‘ Hybridge ’ for its capacity to couple electric and gas networks .
In a partnership of transmission system operator Amprion and gas net operator Open Grid Europe ( OGE ) , electricity from renewable energy will be converted , by means of electrolysis , into hydrogen and methane .
The companies will deploy a 100 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ transported by an OGE hydrogen pipeline and the existing gas pipeline network throughout the Ruhr and beyond .
The project is anticipated to start operation in 2023 .
In France , in the Les Hauts de France region around Dunkirk , one of the world ’ s most ambitious power-to-gas projects will build five 100 MW hydrogen electrolyser production units over five years .
The project , a partnership of France ’ s H2V Industry and Norway ’ s HydrogenPro , will introduce hydrogen into the natural gas distribution network in order to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and cooking as well as for transport .
These ambitious European projects have large-scale electrolysis counterparts in North America .
Most notable is a project of the British Columbia-based Renewable Hydrogen Canada ( RH2C ) , which is backed by a private sector utility and investors .
The company is planning to build a large electrolysis plant in BC , to produce renewable hydrogen through water electrolysis powered by local hydropower and winds off the Rockies .
Meanwhile , in the US , dedicated research on electrolysis to produce hydrogen from renewables is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy .
Industry : Most of the current demand for hydrogen is in oil refining , the chemical sector and steel manufacturing .
Therefore the main near term opportunity to reduce emissions in the industrial sector is to displace fossil fuel hydrogen with electrolytic hydrogen produced from renewable sources ( ‘ green ’ hydrogen ) or with CCUS ( ‘ blue ’ hydrogen ) .
This is feasible in the production of chemicals such as ammonia and methanol and in oil refining .
And electrolytic hydrogen @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a large demonstration plant under construction in Sweden that is expected to be operational by 2025 .
The development of infrastructure that couples conventional hydrogen production with CCUS is moving forward across a broad range of applications .
According to the IEA , six projects with a total annual production of 350 000 metric tons of low-carbon hydrogen were in operation at the end of 2019 .
Moreover , more than 20 projects to be launched in the 2020s have been announced , for the most part in countries around the North Sea @ @ @ @ @ @ @ H-vision , will establish blue hydrogen infrastructure in the Rotterdam harbor area in the Netherlands .
It will consist of hydrogen production with CCUS in four steam-reforming plants , with a total capacity of 15-20 metric tons of hydrogen production per hour .
They will produce hydrogen for industrial plants in the harbor , with the resultant CO2 to be sequestered in depleted gas fields under the North Sea or used in chemical production .
The consortium contains 14 parties from within the harbor and others in the process chain .
Starting from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is to realize the complete project by 2030 .
Gas grid : According to the IEA , several projects around the world are already injecting hydrogen into existing natural gas grids .
It is possible to blend up to 20 % hydrogen on a volumetric basis into a gas grid with minimal or even no modifications to the infrastructure or end-user home appliances .
An enormous pilot project to convert the gas networks to hydrogen in the north of England is being planned now .
First announced in 2016 , the H21 North @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , is a collaboration of two British gas distributors , Northern Gas Networks and Cadent , and Norway ’ s Equinor ( formerly Statoil ) .
They have produced a hydrogen blueprint that will utilize the existing natural gas distribution infrastructure serving a region of 5 million inhabitants including several large cities for domestic and industrial users , with applications including heat , power and transport .
The project ’ s planners view it as a way to achieve the ‘ deep decarbonization ’ that could not be reached with renewable electric power @ @ @ @ @ @ @ carbon capture and storage ( CCS ) .
Equinor ’ s role is to build a hydrogen production facility utilizing a standard reforming process with natural gas .
The captured CO2 will be transported offshore to undersea storage .
A specially built hydrogen transmission pipeline will link to the local gas distribution networks .
The new transmission pipeline is required because injecting hydrogen into gas transmission pipelines is more difficult ( although Italy ’ s Snam has already demonstrated the feasibility of blending hydrogen up to 10 % in gas transmission grids ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2028 and 2034 .
It is anticipated to achieve deep decarbonization of 14 % of the UK ’ s heat demand by 2034 .
Its large scale and significant impact on carbon emissions will make H21 NoE the world ’ s first at-scale hydrogen economy .
Should it succeed , it will lay a basis for expanding such a system across the entire UK , decarbonizing a large percentage of domestic heat , transport and power by 2050 .
Indeed it will serve as a model for many other countries .
A more @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ( Gestion des Réseaux par l ’ injection d ’ Hydrogène pour Décarboner les énergies , i.e.
, grid management through the injection of hydrogen for energy decarbonization ) .
Launched in 2018 , it is managed by the energy services firm Engie with local partners and support of the French government .
The current phase is a power-to-gas project deploying renewable energy to blend up to 20 % hydrogen into the natural gas grid for a district of Dunkirk .
It is demonstrating the technical feasibility of this approach for domestic use @ @ @ @ @ @ @ annual World Energy Outlook Special Report under the title ‘ Sustainable Recovery.
’ In it , the agency places hydrogen among six key sectors that governments should focus on for economic recovery , calling on them to ‘ boost innovation in crucial technology areas including hydrogen , batteries , CCUS , and small modular nuclear reactors.
’ And in a recent Tracking Energy Integration 2020 report , the IEA calls hydrogen one of several integration technologies that are ‘ increasingly crucial ’ for a low-carbon energy transition .
The report notes that important @ @ @ @ @ @ @ year , listing ten international initiatives and national plans that appeared during 2019 .
These include top level G20 discussions and target-setting plans by Korea , Japan , Netherlands , Australia and Canada .
Clearly the hydrogen movement is at a critical moment when continuing innovation is required .
The role of government will remain important as fledgling industries seek to gain scale and find markets .
Governments will need to provide direct , targeted support for projects that can achieve technical and market advances .
And they will need to help stimulate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ appear .
PRINCIPIA SCIENTIFIC INTERNATIONAL , legally registered in the UK as a company incorporated for charitable purposes .
Head Office : 27 Old Gloucester Street , London WC1N 3AX .
Help Our Non-Profit Mission To Defend The Scientific Method .

Europe is Chasing Ambitious Hydrogen Fuel Dream
Written by Alan Mammoser
In the panorama of renewable energy technologies, hydrogen’s potential is seen in several sectors. It is what the IEA calls an ‘integration’ technology. It promises to play a cross-sectoral role throughout the energy system, contributing simultaneously to decarbonization in various ways.
It can make clean energy sources more efficient and increase overall system flexibility. What has increased its appeal, beyond the basic need to address climate change, is the remarkable decline in the cost of renewable energy, which makes the large-scale production of low-carbon hydrogen more feasible.
These factors have motivated a growing number of plans and pilot projects throughout the world, reaching a high point of announcements for new projects last year.
Now the outlines of how hydrogen will function in future energy systems, and the pathways to get there, are beginning to appear. One region of particular importance is northern Europe.
But it is a critical moment when momentum has slowed in large part due to the pandemic. With recovery, it is not certain that investment in low-carbon hydrogen applications will continue to grow. Strong and specific commitments from companies and governments will be required to spur demand and foster markets.
A shifting emphasis
The current actual worldwide production of low-carbon hydrogen is a tiny amount. However, there is a growing activity on several fronts, with new pilot and early commercial projects appearing with unprecedented momentum until this year. They suggest how government and business will give birth to clean hydrogen markets.
Experts have noticed a shift in emphasis. Up until recently, the transport sector has been the center of focus for clean hydrogen, with efforts to develop fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) and hydrogen refueling stations. Some impressive gains have been made.
According to the IEA, the FCEV market has continued to expand especially in China, Japan and Korea. And at the end of 2019, there were 470 hydrogen refueling stations in operation worldwide, an increase of more than 20{154653b9ea5f83bbbf00f55de12e21cba2da5b4b158a426ee0e27ae0c1b44117} from 2018. There has even been production of two fuel cell trains by Alstom in Germany, with more coming next year.
But the area of activity is expanding beyond transport. Governments and companies are working together to ramp up green hydrogen with projects in key end-use technologies and low-carbon production. Although the starting point is low, new projects are for large scale deployment of electrolysers of a hundred megawatts.
They have applications in heavy industry, chemical production, heat for cities, and the all-important area of energy storage.
A glance at a few major projects shows the extent of planning for large scale electrolysis, industrial applications, and the deployment of gas grids to carry hydrogen for multiple purposes. These appear in the IEA’s Hydrogen Projects Database, which offers a comprehensive record of low-carbon hydrogen projects commissioned, in planning or construction worldwide for the past twenty years. The database can be accessed on-line.
North European nexus
The shifting emphasis can be seen especially in Northern Europe, where large concentrations of projects are now found. Renewable energy will power electrolysers to produce hydrogen for industries in northern industrial centers. Other projects focus on power and heat for urban districts. Key applications include large-scale electrolysis, carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS), and utilization of natural gas networks.
Electrolysis: There are a number of planned projects for hydrogen electrolysers that would produce hydrogen from decarbonized electricity. German and French projects are leaders.
In Germany, a power-to-gas project in Emsland in the Ruhr region has been called ‘Hybridge’ for its capacity to couple electric and gas networks. In a partnership of transmission system operator Amprion and gas net operator Open Grid Europe (OGE), electricity from renewable energy will be converted, by means of electrolysis, into hydrogen and methane.
The companies will deploy a 100 MW electrolyser, with the resulting hydrogen transported by an OGE hydrogen pipeline and the existing gas pipeline network throughout the Ruhr and beyond. The project is anticipated to start operation in 2023.
In France, in the Les Hauts de France region around Dunkirk, one of the world’s most ambitious power-to-gas projects will build five 100 MW hydrogen electrolyser production units over five years. The project, a partnership of France’s H2V Industry and Norway’s HydrogenPro, will introduce hydrogen into the natural gas distribution network in order to decarbonize the natural gas used for heating and cooking as well as for transport.
These ambitious European projects have large-scale electrolysis counterparts in North America. Most notable is a project of the British Columbia-based Renewable Hydrogen Canada (RH2C), which is backed by a private sector utility and investors. The company is planning to build a large electrolysis plant in BC, to produce renewable hydrogen through water electrolysis powered by local hydropower and winds off the Rockies.
Meanwhile, in the US, dedicated research on electrolysis to produce hydrogen from renewables is centered in the Department of Energy’s Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy.
Industry: Most of the current demand for hydrogen is in oil refining, the chemical sector and steel manufacturing. Therefore the main near term opportunity to reduce emissions in the industrial sector is to displace fossil fuel hydrogen with electrolytic hydrogen produced from renewable sources (‘green’ hydrogen) or with CCUS (‘blue’ hydrogen). This is feasible in the production of chemicals such as ammonia and methanol and in oil refining. And electrolytic hydrogen is gaining momentum in steelmaking, with a large demonstration plant under construction in Sweden that is expected to be operational by 2025.
The development of infrastructure that couples conventional hydrogen production with CCUS is moving forward across a broad range of applications. According to the IEA, six projects with a total annual production of 350 000 metric tons of low-carbon hydrogen were in operation at the end of 2019. Moreover, more than 20 projects to be launched in the 2020s have been announced, for the most part in countries around the North Sea.
One such project, known as H-vision, will establish blue hydrogen infrastructure in the Rotterdam harbor area in the Netherlands. It will consist of hydrogen production with CCUS in four steam-reforming plants, with a total capacity of 15-20 metric tons of hydrogen production per hour. They will produce hydrogen for industrial plants in the harbor, with the resultant CO2 to be sequestered in depleted gas fields under the North Sea or used in chemical production. The consortium contains 14 parties from within the harbor and others in the process chain. Starting from a 2019 feasibility study, their goal is to realize the complete project by 2030.
Gas grid: According to the IEA, several projects around the world are already injecting hydrogen into existing natural gas grids. It is possible to blend up to 20{154653b9ea5f83bbbf00f55de12e21cba2da5b4b158a426ee0e27ae0c1b44117} hydrogen on a volumetric basis into a gas grid with minimal or even no modifications to the infrastructure or end-user home appliances.
An enormous pilot project to convert the gas networks to hydrogen in the north of England is being planned now. First announced in 2016, the H21 North of England (H21 NoE) project, is a collaboration of two British gas distributors, Northern Gas Networks and Cadent, and Norway’s Equinor (formerly Statoil). They have produced a hydrogen blueprint that will utilize the existing natural gas distribution infrastructure serving a region of 5 million inhabitants including several large cities for domestic and industrial users, with applications including heat, power and transport.
The project’s planners view it as a way to achieve the ‘deep decarbonization’ that could not be reached with renewable electric power alone. To do so will require carbon capture and storage (CCS). Equinor’s role is to build a hydrogen production facility utilizing a standard reforming process with natural gas. The captured CO2 will be transported offshore to undersea storage.
A specially built hydrogen transmission pipeline will link to the local gas distribution networks. The new transmission pipeline is required because injecting hydrogen into gas transmission pipelines is more difficult (although Italy’s Snam has already demonstrated the feasibility of blending hydrogen up to 10{154653b9ea5f83bbbf00f55de12e21cba2da5b4b158a426ee0e27ae0c1b44117} in gas transmission grids).
Project implementation is to occur between 2028 and 2034. It is anticipated to achieve deep decarbonization of 14{154653b9ea5f83bbbf00f55de12e21cba2da5b4b158a426ee0e27ae0c1b44117} of the UK’s heat demand by 2034. Its large scale and significant impact on carbon emissions will make H21 NoE the world’s first at-scale hydrogen economy.
Should it succeed, it will lay a basis for expanding such a system across the entire UK, decarbonizing a large percentage of domestic heat, transport and power by 2050. Indeed it will serve as a model for many other countries.
A more modest project in France is called GRHYD (Gestion des Réseaux par l’injection d’Hydrogène pour Décarboner les énergies, i.e., grid management through the injection of hydrogen for energy decarbonization). Launched in 2018, it is managed by the energy services firm Engie with local partners and support of the French government.
The current phase is a power-to-gas project deploying renewable energy to blend up to 20{154653b9ea5f83bbbf00f55de12e21cba2da5b4b158a426ee0e27ae0c1b44117} hydrogen into the natural gas grid for a district of Dunkirk. It is demonstrating the technical feasibility of this approach for domestic use.
A critical moment
Last month the IEA released its annual World Energy Outlook Special Report under the title ‘Sustainable Recovery.’ In it, the agency places hydrogen among six key sectors that governments should focus on for economic recovery, calling on them to ‘boost innovation in crucial technology areas including hydrogen, batteries, CCUS, and small modular nuclear reactors.’
And in a recent Tracking Energy Integration 2020 report, the IEA calls hydrogen one of several integration technologies that are ‘increasingly crucial’ for a low-carbon energy transition. The report notes that important political momentum had been building through last year, listing ten international initiatives and national plans that appeared during 2019. These include top level G20 discussions and target-setting plans by Korea, Japan, Netherlands, Australia and Canada.
Clearly the hydrogen movement is at a critical moment when continuing innovation is required. The role of government will remain important as fledgling industries seek to gain scale and find markets. Governments will need to provide direct, targeted support for projects that can achieve technical and market advances. And they will need to help stimulate demand in sectors where good near-term opportunities appear.
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