principiascientificinternational--2020-05-06--NY Funeral Directors Accuse Officials of Inflating COVID19 Death Toll

A new video report from Project Veritas contains disturbing first-hand witness evidence from New York funeral homes indicating New York is deliberately exaggerating the number of deaths from COVID19 .
Joseph Antioco , of Schaefer Funeral Home is one of several New York City Funeral Directors who have come out blowing the whistle on fake statistics being promoted by politicians , bureaucrats and the fake mainstream media .
Antioco has a message for Governor Cuomo and Mayor DeBlasio : “ You are faking statistics .
You know you are putting people on that have COVID19 if they didn ’ t @ @ @ @ @ @ @ death rate for New York City a lot higher than it should be.
” Michael Lanza , Funeral Director , Colonial Funeral Home , Staten Island , backs up this worrying statement and reports : “ On the death certificates they are writing on all the death certificates – whether they had a positive test , or whether they didn ’ t .
So I think , you know again , this is my personal opinion , the mayor in our city ( DeBlasio ) is looking for federal funding , and the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ certificates , so the more money they can ask from federal funds .
So , I think it is political.
” Josephine Dimiceli , President of Dimiceli and Sons Funeral Home offers additional evidence .
She reports : “ I had one [ body ] autopsied because the sister was furious and apparently and a Supreme Court Justice was related to this family , and she says I know my sister didn ’ t die of COVID19 .
She said she has Alzheimer ’ s and they didn ’ t suction her .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ how to swallow .
And right away they put COVID19 down on the death certificate .
And the Supreme Court Justice whoever it is , contacted the hospital .
They did an independent autopsy and bingo .
No COVID19 ” Project Veritas is now issuing an urgent appeal to all honest health workers and those associated with dealing with the pandemic to come forward and share their evidence to help expose this monumental scam .
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NY Funeral Directors Accuse Officials of Inflating COVID19 Death Toll
Written by John O'Sullivan
A new video report from Project Veritas contains disturbing first-hand witness evidence from New York funeral homes indicating New York is deliberately exaggerating the number of deaths from COVID19.
Joseph Antioco, of Schaefer Funeral Home is one of several New York City Funeral Directors who have come out blowing the whistle on fake statistics being promoted by politicians, bureaucrats and the fake mainstream media.
Antioco has a message for Governor Cuomo and Mayor DeBlasio:
“You are faking statistics. You know you are putting people on that have COVID19 if they didn’t have it. You are making the death rate for New York City a lot higher than it should be.”
Michael Lanza, Funeral Director, Colonial Funeral Home, Staten Island, backs up this worrying statement and reports:
“On the death certificates they are writing on all the death certificates – whether they had a positive test, or whether they didn’t. So I think, you know again, this is my personal opinion, the mayor in our city (DeBlasio) is looking for federal funding, and the more they put COVID on the death certificates, so the more money they can ask from federal funds. So, I think it is political.”
Watch the full video here:
Josephine Dimiceli, President of Dimiceli and Sons Funeral Home offers additional evidence. She reports:
“I had one [body] autopsied because the sister was furious and apparently and a Supreme Court Justice was related to this family, and she says I know my sister didn’t die of COVID19. She said she has Alzheimer’s and they didn’t suction her. You have to suction because they forget how to swallow. And right away they put COVID19 down on the death certificate. And the Supreme Court Justice whoever it is, contacted the hospital. They did an independent autopsy and bingo. No COVID19”
Project Veritas is now issuing an urgent appeal to all honest health workers and those associated with dealing with the pandemic to come forward and share their evidence to help expose this monumental scam.
The email address for contact is: veritastips@protonmail.com
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principiascientificinternational--2020-05-06--Coronavirus: Fake ‘Scare’ Coverage And Overkill Response

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Coronavirus: Fake ‘Scare’ Coverage And Overkill Response
Written by Daniel McAdams
When the history of this coronavirus scare is written, it should note how wildly inaccurate were the projections of the “experts” and what a draconian response was put in place based on bad data.
When the deaths did not add up to projections, the authorities started massively cooking the books, counting every “probable” covid death as a covid death.
While the US accused China and Iran of misreporting the numbers, the US is doing the same thing on a much larger scale. Meanwhile new scare stories are released in the compliant media every day warning of dire consequences if we dare to re-open any part of the economy.
How much of this is enough? Watch the video below:
Read more at www.ronpaulinstitute.org
****
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principiascientificinternational--2020-05-06--German scientists find antibody BLOCKER to coronavirus

Scientists have detected an antibody that blocks the coronavirus from entering cells , providing a much-needed shield for severely ill patients .
While not a cure or vaccine , it is still a significant development .
“ This is clearly a breakthrough that shows that we are on the right track for the development of a drug against Covid-19 , ” said virologist Professor Luka Cicin-Sain .
“ In repeated experiments , we were able to show that this result is sustainable.
” Cicin-Sain and his team analyzed 6,000 different human antibodies and found more than 750 that dock with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ further in already infected patients .
The antibodies are currently undergoing additional testing on cell cultures to whittle their number down to find the most effective at blocking the infection .
To be clear , the researchers are neither producing a vaccine nor a cure , but instead a potentially highly effective treatment for severely ill coronavirus patients which operates on the principle of “ so-called passive immunization , ” according to Stefan Dübel from the Technical University of Braunschweig , who added that : The team , who worked in collaboration with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ begin clinical trials in the autumn .
Meanwhile , the broad-spectrum antiviral medication Remdesivir – originally developed to treat the Ebola and Marburg viruses – is being used in trials with coronavirus patients , despite its apparent ineffectiveness in follow-up tests , after one study found the drug shortened coronavirus infection recovery times .
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Written by rt.com
Scientists have detected an antibody that blocks the coronavirus from entering cells, providing a much-needed shield for severely ill patients. While not a cure or vaccine, it is still a significant development.
“This is clearly a breakthrough that shows that we are on the right track for the development of a drug against Covid-19,” said virologist Professor Luka Cicin-Sain. “In repeated experiments, we were able to show that this result is sustainable.”
Cicin-Sain and his team analyzed 6,000 different human antibodies and found more than 750 that dock with the coronavirus and prevent it from spreading further in already infected patients. The antibodies are currently undergoing additional testing on cell cultures to whittle their number down to find the most effective at blocking the infection.
“I am extremely happy about this great success of the research institutes in Lower Saxony, which gives hope for better healing results with Covid-19,” said Lower Saxony’s Minister of Science Bjorn Thumler.
To be clear, the researchers are neither producing a vaccine nor a cure, but instead a potentially highly effective treatment for severely ill coronavirus patients which operates on the principle of “so-called passive immunization,” according to Stefan Dübel from the Technical University of Braunschweig, who added that:
“The effect is immediate: the antibodies take the potential away from the virus.”
The team, who worked in collaboration with biotech company Yumab, is hoping to begin clinical trials in the autumn.
Meanwhile, the broad-spectrum antiviral medication Remdesivir – originally developed to treat the Ebola and Marburg viruses – is being used in trials with coronavirus patients, despite its apparent ineffectiveness in follow-up tests, after one study found the drug shortened coronavirus infection recovery times.
Read more at www.rt.com
****
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principiascientificinternational--2020-05-07--Report: ‘Lockdown’ Suicide Rise to Kill More Australians than COVID-19

Report : ‘ Lockdown ’ Suicide Rise to Kill More Australians than COVID-19 The rise in the suicide rate caused by lockdowns in Australia is predicted to exceed deaths from the Wuhan coronavirus by a factor of ten , the Australian reported Thursday .
Researchers from Sydney University ’ s Brain and Mind Centre forecast a 50 percent rise in the national suicide rate because of the economic and social impact of government responses to the virus , which would drive deaths to as much as ten times higher than those causes by the coronavirus itself .
Already this year @ @ @ @ @ @ @ than those attributed to the coronavirus .
According to the respected Worldometers running tallies , there have already been 374,225 suicides since the start of 2020 , whereas the Wuhan coronavirus has claimed 251,898 lives , Johns Hopkins University reveals .
If the Australian research holds up for other nations as well , the global suicide rate could end up far outpacing the death toll from COVID-19 .
The uptick in Australian suicides will be felt over a number of years , the Australian scholars suggest , and the coronavirus response could produce @ @ @ @ @ @ @ resulting in an extra 1500 deaths each year over the next five years .
The university forecast has received backing from the Australian Medical Association , and Health Minister Greg Hunt is expected to present the results at the national cabinet next week .
Along with the sharp rise in suicides , the research also foresees substantial economic fallout from reduced productivity from the mental health effects of unemployment , school dropouts , and family crises .
According to Ian Hickie , Australia ’ s former mental health commissioner and the head of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ annual rate of suicide could rise from 3000 to up to 4500 , with youth suicides making up nearly half that figure .
“ We are facing a situation where between an extra 750 and 1500 suicides may occur annually , this in addition to the 3000-plus lives that are lost to suicide already every year , ” Professor Hickie said .
Deaths from mental health issues are just the tip of the iceberg in terms of the long-term health impacts from the lockdowns , however , leading some observers to propose that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ countries across the globe to close down TB treatment programs , which reportedly could lead to 6.3 million additional cases of TB and 1.4 million deaths over the next five years .
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Report: ‘Lockdown’ Suicide Rise to Kill More Australians than COVID-19
Written by Thomas D Willams PhD
The rise in the suicide rate caused by lockdowns in Australia is predicted to exceed deaths from the Wuhan coronavirus by a factor of ten, the Australian reported Thursday.
Researchers from Sydney University’s Brain and Mind Centre forecast a 50 percent rise in the national suicide rate because of the economic and social impact of government responses to the virus, which would drive deaths to as much as ten times higher than those causes by the coronavirus itself.
Already this year global deaths by suicide are significantly higher than those attributed to the coronavirus. According to the respected Worldometers running tallies, there have already been 374,225 suicides since the start of 2020, whereas the Wuhan coronavirus has claimed 251,898 lives, Johns Hopkins University reveals.
If the Australian research holds up for other nations as well, the global suicide rate could end up far outpacing the death toll from COVID-19.
The uptick in Australian suicides will be felt over a number of years, the Australian scholars suggest, and the coronavirus response could produce “a generational mental health crisis” resulting in an extra 1500 deaths each year over the next five years.
The university forecast has received backing from the Australian Medical Association, and Health Minister Greg Hunt is expected to present the results at the national cabinet next week.
Along with the sharp rise in suicides, the research also foresees substantial economic fallout from reduced productivity from the mental health effects of unemployment, school dropouts, and family crises.
According to Ian Hickie, Australia’s former mental health commissioner and the head of the Brain and Mind Centre, the annual rate of suicide could rise from 3000 to up to 4500, with youth suicides making up nearly half that figure.
“We are facing a situation where between an extra 750 and 1500 suicides may occur annually, this in addition to the 3000-plus lives that are lost to suicide already every year,” Professor Hickie said.
Deaths from mental health issues are just the tip of the iceberg in terms of the long-term health impacts from the lockdowns, however, leading some observers to propose that
“locking down whole populations in the hope of ‘flattening the curve’ was a catastrophic error, perhaps the worst policy mistake ever committed by Western governments during peacetime.”
For instance, national lockdowns have forced countries across the globe to close down TB treatment programs, which reportedly could lead to 6.3 million additional cases of TB and 1.4 million deaths over the next five years.
Read more at www.breitbart.com
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principiascientificinternational--2020-05-07--Study: Antarctic Amery Ice Shelf ‘Expanding’ Last 20 Years

A newly released paper by Kumar et al looks at the changes and prediction of the Amery Ice Shelf ( AIS ) of East Antarctica using remote sensing data .
The scientists found that the ice shelf is prograding ( expanding ) , and not breaking apart like some alarmist scientists feared earlier .
Wikipedia tells that in December 2006 , “ enormous cracks ” had been forming for over a decade at a rate of three to five meters a day – possibly due to global warming – but researchers later said it was too early to attribute the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ possibility of a natural 50-60 year cycle being responsible.
” Now the recent paper by Kumar et al reports findings that the Amery Ice Shelf ( AIS ) is not disintegrating , let alone shrinking , but rather is advancing !
Once readers get past the scientific gobbledygook of the paper ’ s abstract , ( possibly intended to obscure the paper ’ s inconvenient results ) it becomes clear the ice shelf there is growing .
“ Amery Ice Shelf extent is prograding considerably in the last two decades.
” The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ prediction of the future-ice shelf extent using linear regression techniques .
They found that changes in the ice shelf extent “ are linked with ocean-atmosphere interaction.
” That means natural factors are dominantly at work , and not the anthropogenic ones .
The AIS changes were studied using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectro-radiometer ( MODIS ) satellite data of the austral summer months ( January–March ) from 2001–2016 .
Using statistical techniques , the rate changes of the AIS extent were estimated .
According to the paper ’ s abstract : “ The study @ @ @ @ @ @ @ prograded at the rate of 994 m/year with an average 14.5 km increase in the areal extents during 2001–2016 , as compared to the year 2001 , whereas , the maximum advancement in ice shelf extent was recorded during the 2006–2016 period.
” The study also found that the eastern part of Mackenzie Bay to Ingrid Christensen coast also “ recorded advancement in ice shelf extents and mass ” and that this was in part linked to “ a decrease in the temperatures ( air temperature and sea surface temperature ) .
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Study: Antarctic Amery Ice Shelf ‘Expanding’ Last 20 Years
Written by Pierre Gosselin
A newly released paper by Kumar et al looks at the changes and prediction of the Amery Ice Shelf (AIS) of East Antarctica using remote sensing data.
The scientists found that the ice shelf is prograding (expanding), and not breaking apart like some alarmist scientists feared earlier.
Wikipedia tells that in December 2006, “enormous cracks” had been forming for over a decade at a rate of three to five meters a day – possibly due to global warming – but researchers later said it was too early to attribute the phenomenon to global warming because of the “possibility of a natural 50-60 year cycle being responsible.”
Now the recent paper by Kumar et al reports findings that the Amery Ice Shelf (AIS) is not disintegrating, let alone shrinking, but rather is advancing!
“Prograding considerably”
Once readers get past the scientific gobbledygook of the paper’s abstract, (possibly intended to obscure the paper’s inconvenient results) it becomes clear the ice shelf there is growing. “Amery Ice Shelf extent is prograding considerably in the last two decades.”
The scientists reconstructed the past and made a prediction of the future-ice shelf extent using linear regression techniques.
They found that changes in the ice shelf extent “are linked with ocean-atmosphere interaction.” That means natural factors are dominantly at work, and not the anthropogenic ones.
The AIS changes were studied using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectro-radiometer (MODIS) satellite data of the austral summer months (January–March) from 2001–2016. Using statistical techniques, the rate changes of the AIS extent were estimated.
14.5 km increase
According to the paper’s abstract: “The study reveals that the AIS extent has been prograded at the rate of 994 m/year with an average 14.5 km increase in the areal extents during 2001–2016, as compared to the year 2001, whereas, the maximum advancement in ice shelf extent was recorded during the 2006–2016 period.”
The study also found that the eastern part of Mackenzie Bay to Ingrid Christensen coast also “recorded advancement in ice shelf extents and mass” and that this was in part linked to “a decrease in the temperatures (air temperature and sea surface temperature).
Read more at No Tricks Zone
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principiascientificinternational--2020-05-07--UK Professor’s Junk Model Used to Get Trump to Lock Down Entire US

UK Professor ’ s Junk Model Used to Get Trump to Lock Down Entire US Dr. Tony Fauci and Dr. Deborah Birx used the Imperial College Model to persuade President Trump to lock down the ENTIRE US ECONOMY .
The fraudulent model predicted 2.2 million American deaths from the coronavirus pandemic .
The authors of the Imperial College Model shared their findings with the White House Coronavirus task force in early March .
Dr. Fauci and Dr. Birx then met with President Trump privately and urged him to shut down the US economy and destroy the record Trump economy .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ Model finds the study is “ completely unusable for scientific purposes ” — The study is a sham .
Dr. Fauci and Dr. Birx pushed a garbage model on the White House and the American public and destroyed the US economy .
As reported weeks ago — in mid April Dr. Fauci admitted that it was he and Dr. Birx who persuaded President Trump to lock down the US economy knowing the massive destruction this would cause in jobs , lives and commerce .
President admitted that during a press conference in April @ @ @ @ @ @ @ came into his office and urged him to lock down the economy or 2.2 million Americans would die from the China virus .
But President Trump did not say who those “ two very smart people ” were .
President Trump : The big projection being that 2.2 million people would die if we did nothing .
That was another decision we made , close it up .
That was a big decision that we made .
Two very smart people walked into my office and said listen these are your alternatives .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ to 2.2 million people would die if we didn ’ t close it up .
That ’ s a lot of people .
Dr. Fauci later admitted he persuaded the president to shut down and kill off the US economy .
This guy has been wrong every step of the way .
Sheri Fink at The New York Times back on March 16 , 2020 , described the scenario that led to the US economic lockdown .
In her report Fink describes how Imperial College researchers including Neil Ferguson shared their projections with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ White House coronavirus task force .
They even sent a copy of their report to the task force before its release .
Sweeping new federal recommendations announced on Monday for Americans to sharply limit their activities appeared to draw on a dire scientific report warning that , without action by the government and individuals to slow the spread of coronavirus and suppress new cases , 2.2 million people in the United States could die .
To curb the epidemic , there would need to be drastic restrictions on work , school and social @ @ @ @ @ @ @ vaccine was available , which could take 18 months , according to the report , compiled by British researchers .
They cautioned that such steps carried enormous costs that could also affect people ’ s health , but concluded they were “ the only viable strategy at the current time.
” That is because different steps , intended to drive down transmission by isolating patients , quarantining those in contact with them and keeping the most vulnerable apart from others for three months , could only cut the predicted death toll by half @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a news conference with President Trump about what had led to the change in thinking by a White House task force , Dr. Deborah Birx , one of the task force leaders , said new information had come from a model developed in Britain .
Dr. Birx ’ s description of the findings was consistent with those in the report , released on Monday by an epidemic modeling group at Imperial College London .
The lead author of the study , Neil Ferguson ( photo , below ) , an epidemiology professor , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ had shared their projections with the White House task force about a week ago and that an early copy of the report was sent over the weekend .
The group has also shared its fatality estimates with the C.D.C.
, Dr. Ferguson said , including that eight to nine percent of people in the most vulnerable age group , 80 and older , could die if infected .
After Dr. Birx and Dr. Fauci sat with the president the US went into lockdown and since that time over 30 MILLION Americans have lost @ @ @ @ @ @ @ gone bankrupt .
In late March , Neil Ferguson , who was behind the Imperial College coronavirus study , backtracked and said 20,000 Brits may die from the coronavirus instead of his original estimates of 500,000 .
Neil Ferguson resigned from his government post as researcher this week after he was caught breaking his own lockdown rules by meeting with his married mistress at his home .
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UK Professor’s Junk Model Used to Get Trump to Lock Down Entire US
Written by Jim Hoft
Dr. Tony Fauci and Dr. Deborah Birx used the Imperial College Model to persuade President Trump to lock down the ENTIRE US ECONOMY.
The fraudulent model predicted 2.2 million American deaths from the coronavirus pandemic. The authors of the Imperial College Model shared their findings with the White House Coronavirus task force in early March. Dr. Fauci and Dr. Birx then met with President Trump privately and urged him to shut down the US economy and destroy the record Trump economy.
A new critique of the Imperial College Model finds the study is “completely unusable for scientific purposes” — The study is a sham. Dr. Fauci and Dr. Birx pushed a garbage model on the White House and the American public and destroyed the US economy.
As reported weeks ago — in mid April Dr. Fauci admitted that it was he and Dr. Birx who persuaded President Trump to lock down the US economy knowing the massive destruction this would cause in jobs, lives and commerce.
President admitted that during a press conference in April that “two very smart people” came into his office and urged him to lock down the economy or 2.2 million Americans would die from the China virus.
But President Trump did not say who those “two very smart people” were.
President Trump: The big projection being that 2.2 million people would die if we did nothing. That was another decision we made, close it up. That was a big decision that we made. Two very smart people walked into my office and said listen these are your alternatives. And that was a projection of 1.5 to 2.2 million people would die if we didn’t close it up. That’s a lot of people.
Dr. Fauci later admitted he persuaded the president to shut down and kill off the US economy.
This guy has been wrong every step of the way.
Sheri Fink at The New York Times back on March 16, 2020, described the scenario that led to the US economic lockdown.
In her report Fink describes how Imperial College researchers including Neil Ferguson shared their projections with Dr. Fauci and Dr. Birx and the White House coronavirus task force. They even sent a copy of their report to the task force before its release.
Sweeping new federal recommendations announced on Monday for Americans to sharply limit their activities appeared to draw on a dire scientific report warning that, without action by the government and individuals to slow the spread of coronavirus and suppress new cases, 2.2 million people in the United States could die. To curb the epidemic, there would need to be drastic restrictions on work, school and social gatherings for periods of time until a vaccine was available, which could take 18 months, according to the report, compiled by British researchers. They cautioned that such steps carried enormous costs that could also affect people’s health, but concluded they were “the only viable strategy at the current time.” That is because different steps, intended to drive down transmission by isolating patients, quarantining those in contact with them and keeping the most vulnerable apart from others for three months, could only cut the predicted death toll by half, the new report said… …Asked at a news conference with President Trump about what had led to the change in thinking by a White House task force, Dr. Deborah Birx, one of the task force leaders, said new information had come from a model developed in Britain. Dr. Birx’s description of the findings was consistent with those in the report, released on Monday by an epidemic modeling group at Imperial College London. The lead author of the study, Neil Ferguson (photo, below), an epidemiology professor, said in an interview that his group had shared their projections with the White House task force about a week ago and that an early copy of the report was sent over the weekend. The group has also shared its fatality estimates with the C.D.C., Dr. Ferguson said, including that eight to nine percent of people in the most vulnerable age group, 80 and older, could die if infected.
After Dr. Birx and Dr. Fauci sat with the president the US went into lockdown and since that time over 30 MILLION Americans have lost their jobs and thousands of companies have gone bankrupt.
In late March, Neil Ferguson, who was behind the Imperial College coronavirus study, backtracked and said 20,000 Brits may die from the coronavirus instead of his original estimates of 500,000.
Neil Ferguson resigned from his government post as researcher this week after he was caught breaking his own lockdown rules by meeting with his married mistress at his home.
Read more at www.thegatewaypundit.com
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principiascientificinternational--2020-05-07--Discredited Origin of COVID-19 ‘Lockdown’ Computer Models

In the last 20 years the world has seen the outbreak of many pathogens .
Foot and Mouth in 2001 , SARS in 2003 , Bird Flue in 2005 , Swine Flu in 2011 , MERS in 2012 , and Ebola and Zika in 2014 .
Not forgetting CjD or as it is more commonly known , ‘ mad cow ’ disease .
And now we have the new SARS-CoV-2 virus currently decimating the world ’ s population .
Or perhaps not .
It is the enigmatic Professor Neil Ferguson who has once again captured the world ’ s attention @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the SARS-CoV-2 virus and critically , how Governments should respond .
I have no doubts that Professor Neil Ferguson is an extremely clever man .
After all , you don ’ t get to be an He was also appointed the Order of the British Empire in 2002 for his ‘ work ’ in the mathematical modelling of the Foot and Mouth epidemic in the UK in 2001 .
He is highly influential in all aspects of Health Policy .
He is an advisor to the WHO , the European Union , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Prime Minister since 2001 .
And yet , Prof. Ferguson remains an enigma .
He has the unfortunate habit of making outrageous claims about the severity of new viral outbreaks throughout his career .
To be fair to Prof. Ferguson he did adjust his figure to between 50 and 50,000 .
The technical term for that range is ‘ covering your ass ’ .
In 2009 Prof. Ferguson was quoted as saying ( regarding H1N1 ) : Prof. Ferguson first rose to prominence during the Foot and Mouth outbreak in the UK in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the Imperial College team that heavily influenced the policies of the Labour Government led by Tony Blair .
The paper by Kitching , Thrushfield and Taylor is a must read in understanding the carnage on British farms due to the misguided use of mathematical models .
Over 6.5 million animals were slaughtered ( officially ) .
Today , the herd numbers in the UK have not recovered to pre 2001 levels .
Not to mention the social upheaval this caused to farmers whose herds were completely wiped out .
This was the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ favour of past experience to direct government policies during the outbreak of a highly contagious virus outbreak .
Some quotes which caught my eye from the above paper was : “ The models of Ferguson et al .
( 31 , 32 ) and Keeling et al .
( 55 , 56 ) addressed the spread of disease in a population of farms using ‘ black box ’ probabilities of infection , without attempting to model the actual mechanisms of disease spread ( 93 ) .
Central to the ‘ black box ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , a probability construct that describes the probability of infection as a function of distance between infectious and susceptible farms .
…… The model that Ferguson et al .
( 31 ) presented to the Science Group in late March probably had the most influence on early policy decisions ( 93 ) , specifically , the introduction of the pre-emptive contiguous culling policy .
However , this model , and the Keeling et al .
model ( 56 ) that was used to corroborate it , were assigned parameters that could not help @ @ @ @ @ @ @ field tracing data that should have been viewed with caution…… .
It is inevitable that modellers will seek to improve their models .
However , they tend to focus their attention on tractable issues of ‘ uncertainty ’ ( that is , focusing on influential parameters whose probabilities are not known ) .This is common to scientific research , which thus ignores parameters that are less amenable to investigation ( 61 ) .The net result is that , as uncertainty is decreased , ‘ ignorance ’ ( essentially : not knowing what one @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a measure of the completeness and value of knowledge , increases ( 116 ) .
This apparent paradox therefore acts as a cautionary warning over the use of ever-more-detailed models as policy guides.
” The ‘ black box ’ and ‘ spatial kernel ’ modelling methods are crucial to understanding Professor Ferguson ’ s later work .
Professor Ferguson was appointed the OBE for his sterling efforts to exterminate millions of livestock based on faulty modelling .
Tony Blair had his first taste of mass murder and went on to human experiments .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ of Prof. Ferguson and his computer models .
As a coder myself , I was astounded to learn that the his code was thousands of lines long , written in C and completely undocumented .
Where have I heard this before ?
Every programmer knows the importance of firstly documenting code and then managing version control and source code management .
Github is probably the most widely used software for this purpose .
The fact that Prof. Ferguson ’ s undocumented and unreleased code code is being used to influence major Government policy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s code .
Prof. Ferguson ’ s Magnum Opus paper warning of 500,000 deaths in the UK can be found here : Report 9 : Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions ( NPIs ) to reduce COVID-19 mortality and healthcare demand Although the statistical methodology used is not detailed in this paper , the conclusions rely on data from the Wuhan outbreak to arrive at Case Fatality Rates , R-nought values etc .
To be fair to the Prof. , he did not actually do a U-turn on his 500,000 prediction .
The 20,000 came @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ policies .
The Table above shows Prof. Ferguson ’ s predictions based on various scenarios of R0 .
The bases of these predictions were presumably taken from this paper : This paper does go into the statistical methods used .
These can be complicated if you don ’ t know Bayes theorem .
Even if you do and can work through them , the flaw is the paucity of data available to make good predictions .
That didn ’ t seem to deter the good Professor .
As an aside , Bayes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ conditional probability .
It is not a one shop mathematical formula .
As new data becomes available , existing theories are updated .
Here it is in all its glory .
Prof. Ferguson cites that the model he used was the one developed in 2007 which simulated an influenza pandemic in the US based on a city the size of Chicago .
This paper can be found here : Modeling targeted layered containment of an influenza pandemic in the United States To quote directly from the study : We considered a set of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ isolation of identified cases , prophylaxis and quarantine of their household contacts , closure of schools , social distancing in the workplace , and social distancing in the community at large .
Because these interventions are combinations of targeted and general interventions , we call them targeted-layered containment ( TLC ) approaches .
We examined different levels of ascertainment of symptomatic influenza cases , compliance with the interventions , and cumulative illness attack rate thresholds for initiating interventions .
As early as 2007 , the policies of school closure , liberal leave , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ analysed .
It makes interesting reading .
But what is more interesting lies in the Supplementary Information here : Modeling targeted layered containment of an influenza pandemic in the United States – Supporting Information It is best to read this for yourself to get an idea of the amount of work which went into the seeding the initial model .
Essentially a spatial model was constructed which tried to model areas of population , typical family sizes and generational makeup , distances to work and schools .
One could say , an expanded @ @ @ @ @ @ @ used in the 2001 F & M outbreak which failed so miserably .
Presumably Prof. Ferguson had a data set of similar size and complexity for the UK .
Access to data in 2020 is much simpler than in 2007 and computational power is far more advanced .
What weights did the Professor assign to his ‘ spatial kernel ’ for this model ?
However , Prof. Ferguson chose to use the same computer code to model SARS-CoV2 , 13 years later based on limited data from Wuhan .
If you are interested @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s youtube channel , 3Blue1Brown , has some great videos on simulating an epidemic and also on Bayes theorem ( image , above ) and uses stunning visuals .
Only a few weeks ago none of us had heard of the term ‘ social distancing ’ .
It will now be the new ‘ normal ’ .
The fact is , these ideas are not new .
In Prof. Ferguson ’ s 2007 paper it is stated that the work was carried out in conjunction with : The intervention scenarios and baseline @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with government employees working with the Homeland Security Council and the Department of Health and Human Services in the United States , and thus are particularly relevant for the U.S. pandemic plan .
One research group is a collaboration of investigators at the University of Washington and Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle and the Los Alamos National Laboratories ( UW/LANL ) ( 9 , 11 ) .
One group is a collaboration of investigators at Imperial College and the University of Pittsburgh ( Imperial/Pitt ) ( 6 ) .
The third @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the Virginia Polytechnical Institute and State University ( VBI ) ( 13 , 14 ) .
Although we , the unsuspecting public , had no idea that society as we know it was due to be cancelled , Governments had full knowledge of what they could do if required .
This article from The Guardian , although poorly written , gives an idea of the infighting and arse covering before the ‘ lockdown ’ but essentially points the finger of blame at Johnson .
A case of a big boy did it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ we see the influence of Prof. Ferguson who “ responded extensively to questions from the Guardian for this article.
” Out of this melee came The Coronavirus Act 2020 .
It is a huge document passed in record time by the now defunct Westminster Parliament .
I would postulate that this Act was lying dormant on some Whitehall computer .
A quick ‘ find and replace ’ on MS Word and we now have a new Act of Parliament .
On the 14th of March an open letter to HM Government from 500 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Johnson advocating ‘ social distancing ’ measures NOW .
Judging by the first eight signatories , it would appear that this was organised by mathematicians from Queen Mary University of London .
The first signatory is David Arrowsmith whose famous publications included Robustness of trans-European gas networks .
Stranger and stranger .
On the 16th March , Prof. Ferguson delivered his Magnum Opus to Johnson and the rest is history .
I have never met Professor Ferguson and can not make any comment on his character .
He may be a kind and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ health of billions of people .
What strikes me is his meteoric rise to fame on the back of numerous failures .
To compound this he seems to delight in the media attention his position and influence give him .
And he does have tremendous power and influence on public health policies world-wide .
To me he comes across as a man who is blinded by numbers and has little concern for the human ( or animal ) misery his ‘ models ’ facilitate .
Perhaps Kitching , Thrushfield and Taylor summed it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ mathematical modelling of the F & M outbreak : The numerical output of models has an air of intellectual superiority ( noting that : PRINCIPIA SCIENTIFIC INTERNATIONAL , legally registered in the UK as a company incorporated for charitable purposes .
Head Office : 27 Old Gloucester Street , London WC1N 3AX .
Please DONATE TODAY To Help Our Non-Profit Mission To Defend The Scientific Method .

Discredited Origin of COVID-19 ‘Lockdown’ Computer Models
Written by Graeme McMillan
In the last 20 years the world has seen the outbreak of many pathogens. Foot and Mouth in 2001, SARS in 2003, Bird Flue in 2005, Swine Flu in 2011, MERS in 2012, and Ebola and Zika in 2014.
Not forgetting CjD or as it is more commonly known, ‘mad cow’ disease. And now we have the new SARS-CoV-2 virus currently decimating the world’s population. Or perhaps not.
Professor ‘Lockdown’
It is the enigmatic Professor Neil Ferguson who has once again captured the world’s attention with mathematical models of the severity of the SARS-CoV-2 virus and critically, how Governments should respond.
I have no doubts that Professor Neil Ferguson is an extremely clever man. After all, you don’t get to be an
“epidemiologist and professor of mathematical biology, who specialises in the patterns of spread of infectious disease in humans and animals. He is the director of the Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), head of the Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology in the School of Public Health and Vice-Dean for Academic Development in the Faculty of Medicine, all at Imperial College, London.“ (Wikipedia)
He was also appointed the Order of the British Empire in 2002 for his ‘work’ in the mathematical modelling of the Foot and Mouth epidemic in the UK in 2001.
He is highly influential in all aspects of Health Policy. He is an advisor to the WHO, the European Union, and has had the ear of every UK Prime Minister since 2001.
“Governments around the world use Imperial research to underpin policy decisions, and their staff are among the world’s most influential scientists.” Business Insider
And yet, Prof. Ferguson remains an enigma. He has the unfortunate habit of making outrageous claims about the severity of new viral outbreaks throughout his career.
CjD Prof Ferguson 2001 – 136,000 deaths in coming decades
CjD Actual total 2015 – 226
To be fair to Prof. Ferguson he did adjust his figure to between 50 and 50,000. The technical term for that range is ‘covering your ass’.
H5N1 Prof. Ferguson 2005 200 million deaths
H5N1 Actual total – 455
In 2009 Prof. Ferguson was quoted as saying (regarding H1N1):
“This virus … is likely to spread around the world in the next six to nine months and when it does so it will affect about one-third of the world’s population,”
— lead author Neil Ferguson, from the UK-based Imperial College London, told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme.
Prof. Ferguson first rose to prominence during the Foot and Mouth outbreak in the UK in 2001. He played a leading part of the Imperial College team that heavily influenced the policies of the Labour Government led by Tony Blair.
The paper by Kitching, Thrushfield and Taylor is a must read in understanding the carnage on British farms due to the misguided use of mathematical models.
Over 6.5 million animals were slaughtered (officially). Today, the herd numbers in the UK have not recovered to pre 2001 levels. Not to mention the social upheaval this caused to farmers whose herds were completely wiped out.
This was the first time mathematical modelling was used in favour of past experience to direct government policies during the outbreak of a highly contagious virus outbreak.
Some quotes which caught my eye from the above paper was:
“The models of Ferguson et al.(31, 32) and Keeling et al.(55, 56) addressed the spread of disease in a population of farms using ‘black box’ probabilities of infection, without attempting to model the actual mechanisms of disease spread (93). Central to the ‘black box’ approach is the ‘spatial kernel’, a probability construct that describes the probability of infection as a function of distance between infectious and susceptible farms. …… The model that Ferguson et al.(31) presented to the Science Group in late March probably had the most influence on early policy decisions (93), specifically, the introduction of the pre-emptive contiguous culling policy. However, this model, and the Keeling et al. model (56) that was used to corroborate it, were assigned parameters that could not help but favour that policy, based on field tracing data that should have been viewed with caution……. It is inevitable that modellers will seek to improve their models. However, they tend to focus their attention on tractable issues of ‘uncertainty’ (that is, focusing on influential parameters whose probabilities are not known).This is common to scientific research, which thus ignores parameters that are less amenable to investigation (61).The net result is that, as uncertainty is decreased,‘ignorance’ (essentially: not knowing what one does not know), which is a measure of the completeness and value of knowledge, increases (116). This apparent paradox therefore acts as a cautionary warning over the use of ever-more-detailed models as policy guides.”
The ‘black box’ and ‘spatial kernel’ modelling methods are crucial to understanding Professor Ferguson’s later work.
Professor Ferguson was appointed the OBE for his sterling efforts to exterminate millions of livestock based on faulty modelling. Tony Blair had his first taste of mass murder and went on to human experiments.
The origins of ‘Lockdown’
Questions have now started to be asked of Prof. Ferguson and his computer models. As a coder myself, I was astounded to learn that the his code was thousands of lines long, written in C and completely undocumented. Where have I heard this before?
Every programmer knows the importance of firstly documenting code and then managing version control and source code management. Github is probably the most widely used software for this purpose.
The fact that Prof. Ferguson’s undocumented and unreleased code code is being used to influence major Government policy decisions reminds me of another Mann’s code.
Prof. Ferguson’s Magnum Opus paper warning of 500,000 deaths in the UK can be found here:
Report 9: Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID-19 mortality and healthcare demand
Although the statistical methodology used is not detailed in this paper, the conclusions rely on data from the Wuhan outbreak to arrive at Case Fatality Rates, R-nought values etc. To be fair to the Prof., he did not actually do a U-turn on his 500,000 prediction. The 20,000 came from a scenario involving complete ‘lockdown’ policies.
The Table above shows Prof. Ferguson’s predictions based on various scenarios of R0.
The bases of these predictions were presumably taken from this paper:
Report 4: Severity of 2019-novel coronavirus (nCoV)
This paper does go into the statistical methods used. These can be complicated if you don’t know Bayes theorem. Even if you do and can work through them, the flaw is the paucity of data available to make good predictions. That didn’t seem to deter the good Professor.
As an aside, Bayes Theorem is a powerful tool to determine conditional probability. It is not a one shop mathematical formula. As new data becomes available, existing theories are updated. Here it is in all its glory.
The Original ‘Lockdown’ hypothesis
Prof. Ferguson cites that the model he used was the one developed in 2007 which simulated an influenza pandemic in the US based on a city the size of Chicago. This paper can be found here:
Modeling targeted layered containment of an influenza pandemic in the United States
To quote directly from the study:
Intervention Options
We considered a set of interventions consisting of antiviral treatment and household isolation of identified cases, prophylaxis and quarantine of their household contacts, closure of schools, social distancing in the workplace, and social distancing in the community at large.
Because these interventions are combinations of targeted and general interventions, we call them targeted-layered containment (TLC) approaches. We examined different levels of ascertainment of symptomatic influenza cases, compliance with the interventions, and cumulative illness attack rate thresholds for initiating interventions.
As early as 2007, the policies of school closure, liberal leave, workplace and community social distancing were being analysed. It makes interesting reading. But what is more interesting lies in the Supplementary Information here:
It is best to read this for yourself to get an idea of the amount of work which went into the seeding the initial model. Essentially a spatial model was constructed which tried to model areas of population, typical family sizes and generational makeup, distances to work and schools. One could say, an expanded model of the ‘spatial kernel’ used in the 2001 F&M outbreak which failed so miserably.
Presumably Prof. Ferguson had a data set of similar size and complexity for the UK. Access to data in 2020 is much simpler than in 2007 and computational power is far more advanced. What weights did the Professor assign to his ‘spatial kernel’ for this model?
However, Prof. Ferguson chose to use the same computer code to model SARS-CoV2, 13 years later based on limited data from Wuhan.
If you are interested in Mathematics at all, Grant Sanderson’s youtube channel, 3Blue1Brown, has some great videos on simulating an epidemic and also on Bayes theorem (image, above) and uses stunning visuals.
The COVID19 House Arrest
Only a few weeks ago none of us had heard of the term ‘social distancing’. It will now be the new ‘normal’. The fact is, these ideas are not new. In Prof. Ferguson’s 2007 paper it is stated that the work was carried out in conjunction with:
The intervention scenarios and baseline R0 values examined were selected in consultation with government employees working with the Homeland Security Council and the Department of Health and Human Services in the United States, and thus are particularly relevant for the U.S. pandemic plan.
One research group is a collaboration of investigators at the University of Washington and Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle and the Los Alamos National Laboratories (UW/LANL) (9, 11). One group is a collaboration of investigators at Imperial College and the University of Pittsburgh (Imperial/Pitt) (6). The third group is at the Virginia Bioinformatics Institute of the Virginia Polytechnical Institute and State University (VBI) (13, 14).
Although we, the unsuspecting public, had no idea that society as we know it was due to be cancelled, Governments had full knowledge of what they could do if required.
This article from The Guardian, although poorly written, gives an idea of the infighting and arse covering before the ‘lockdown’ but essentially points the finger of blame at Johnson. A case of a big boy did it and ran away. But yet again we see the influence of Prof. Ferguson who “responded extensively to questions from the Guardian for this article.”
Out of this melee came The Coronavirus Act 2020. It is a huge document passed in record time by the now defunct Westminster Parliament.
I would postulate that this Act was lying dormant on some Whitehall computer. A quick ‘find and replace’ on MS Word and we now have a new Act of Parliament.
On the 14th of March an open letter to HM Government from 500 concerned ‘scientists’ was sent to Johnson advocating ‘social distancing’ measures NOW.
Judging by the first eight signatories, it would appear that this was organised by mathematicians from Queen Mary University of London. The first signatory is David Arrowsmith whose famous publications included Robustness of trans-European gas networks. Stranger and stranger.
On the 16th March, Prof. Ferguson delivered his Magnum Opus to Johnson and the rest is history.
I have never met Professor Ferguson and cannot make any comment on his character. He may be a kind and considerate man whose only concern is the health of billions of people.
What strikes me is his meteoric rise to fame on the back of numerous failures. To compound this he seems to delight in the media attention his position and influence give him. And he does have tremendous power and influence on public health policies world-wide. To me he comes across as a man who is blinded by numbers and has little concern for the human (or animal) misery his ‘models’ facilitate.
Perhaps Kitching, Thrushfield and Taylor summed it up best when they said of the mathematical modelling of the F&M outbreak:
The numerical output of models has an air of intellectual superiority (noting that:
‘…mathematized theory in science is rarely so pellucid or so rigorous that its significance and bearing can be grasped immediately by distant readers’ [74]), while also seeming entirely appropriate in a society where numbers can ‘… reassure by appearing to extend control, precision and knowledge beyond their real limits… wrong numbers, one might add, are worst of all because all numbers pose as true’ (11).Numbers, therefore, may convey an illusion of certainty and security that is not warranted (43); for example, because of the use of whatever numerical data are available, regardless of their relevance and quality (38)’
About the author: Graeme McMillan graduated with Honours from Edinburgh University (Politics, Philosophy and Economics) then gained further qualifications in Business Analysis, Project management, Statistics and Programming. He has had a long career in the UK mining industry in mine planning, geological modelling and computer systems management and programming. He then moved to the metals and minerals sector developing simulation modelling of materials handling (scrap, slag, semi-finished and finished products) as well as financial modelling of large mining and steel plant projects. Latterly, he ran his company’s Middle East and North African division. Graeme is now retired.
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principiascientificinternational--2020-05-07--U.S. Military Oppose Mass 5G Plan

U.S. Military Oppose Mass 5G Plan

May 6 ( UPI ) — Top Pentagon officials told lawmakers Wednesday that a proposed nationwide network to provide 5G and internet-of-things services was “ too risky to be worth it.
” “ This is fundamentally a bad deal for America ’ s national and economic security , ” said Dana Deasy , the Department of Defense ’ s Chief Information Officer , at a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing on the recently-approved Ligado proposal and its implications for national security .
In April the Federal Communications Commission approved a proposal that would allow Ligado Networks to deploy technological services @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to the spectrum used for global positioning systems , which form the basis for most mapping software .
The Department of Defense has repeatedly criticized the proposal , saying it would disrupt defense operations as well as significant aspects of civilian life .
At Wednesday ’ s hearing defense leaders warned that the Ligado plan would disrupt the accuracy of weapons systems , first responders ’ 911 navigation ability and shipping systems .
“ GPS has also long been a critical technology that has supported the Nation ’ s public safety , law @ @ @ @ @ @ @ literally saves lives .
While Americans at home are typically not under threat of purposeful electronic attack , the GPS services they depend on every day for life and livelihood are also threatened if the GPS signal and its environment are not protected from disruption , ” said General John W. Raymond , head of the newly-created United States Space Force .
Retired U.S. Coast Guard Admiral Thad W. Allen criticized the lack of transparency in the process by which the decision was made , as well as the likely technological consequences .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ , FCC did not follow the normal regulatory process for reasons that remain unclear , ” Allen said , drawing a contrast from the process of issuing a license to Dish Networks to convert satellite service spectrum to terrestrial mobile broadband spectrum .
Ligado wrote a letter to the committee , which was read Wednesday , defending its technology as critical to 5G development .
“ We now look forward to the opportunity to build a network that will advance our Nation ’ s progress on the race to 5G , ” the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ legally registered in the UK as a company incorporated for charitable purposes .
Head Office : 27 Old Gloucester Street , London WC1N 3AX .
Please DONATE TODAY To Help Our Non-Profit Mission To Defend The Scientific Method .

U.S. Military Oppose Mass 5G Plan
Written by Christen McCurdy
May 6 (UPI) — Top Pentagon officials told lawmakers Wednesday that a proposed nationwide network to provide 5G and internet-of-things services was “too risky to be worth it.” “This is fundamentally a bad deal for America’s national and economic security,” said Dana Deasy, the Department of Defense’s Chief Information Officer, at a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing on the recently-approved Ligado proposal and its implications for national security.
In April the Federal Communications Commission approved a proposal that would allow Ligado Networks to deploy technological services using the L-band spectrum that runs adjacent to the spectrum used for global positioning systems, which form the basis for most mapping software.
The Department of Defense has repeatedly criticized the proposal, saying it would disrupt defense operations as well as significant aspects of civilian life.
At Wednesday’s hearing defense leaders warned that the Ligado plan would disrupt the accuracy of weapons systems, first responders’ 911 navigation ability and shipping systems.
“GPS has also long been a critical technology that has supported the Nation’s public safety, law enforcement medical and medical responders. It literally saves lives. While Americans at home are typically not under threat of purposeful electronic attack, the GPS services they depend on every day for life and livelihood are also threatened if the GPS signal and its environment are not protected from disruption,” said General John W. Raymond, head of the newly-created United States Space Force.
Retired U.S. Coast Guard Admiral Thad W. Allen criticized the lack of transparency in the process by which the decision was made, as well as the likely technological consequences.
“In the case of Ligado Networks, FCC did not follow the normal regulatory process for reasons that remain unclear,” Allen said, drawing a contrast from the process of issuing a license to Dish Networks to convert satellite service spectrum to terrestrial mobile broadband spectrum. Ligado wrote a letter to the committee, which was read Wednesday, defending its technology as critical to 5G development. “We now look forward to the opportunity to build a network that will advance our Nation’s progress on the race to 5G,” the company wrote. Read more at www.upi.com **** PRINCIPIA SCIENTIFIC INTERNATIONAL, legally registered in the UK as a company incorporated for charitable purposes. Head Office: 27 Old Gloucester Street, London WC1N 3AX. Please DONATE TODAY To Help Our Non-Profit Mission To Defend The Scientific Method.
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