bonginoreport--2020-10-21--Once Again, the Most Accurate Polls From 2016 Tell a Different Story Than the Rest of the Industry

Two of the more accurate pollsters of the 2016 election see a tightening race as the 2020 election hits its final stretch .
“ Today ’ s Trump vs. Biden poll finds that the race between President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden has suddenly gotten much tighter , ” Jed Graham of Investor ’ s Business Daily , the publication behind the poll .
“ IBD/TIPP ’ s latest 2020 presidential poll shows that Republicans are rallying around Trump , Biden is leaking Democratic support , and the gap among independents has narrowed.
” The IBD/TIPP poll @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Biden leading Trump , 48.1 % to 45.8 % , nationally on Oct. 20 , a 2.3-point advantage for Biden .
That stands in stark contrast to the current RealClearPolitics , which shows Biden leading by 7.9 points nationally .
IBD/TIPP ’ s showed similar results , with Biden leading with 48.5 % to Trump 's 46 % , a new high for the president .
“ Since the IBD/TIPP 2020 Presidential Election Tracking Poll launched on Monday , Oct. 12 , Biden ’ s support has slipped 3.8 points , from 51.9 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 48.1 % , ” Graham said .
“ Trump poll numbers have gone the other way , rising 2.4 points to his new high-water mark of 45.8 % .
Biden ’ s lead peaked at 8.6 points in the Oct. 13 presidential poll.
” With the race getting so narrow down the homestretch , Graham questioned whether the results were “ shades of 2016.
” “ In 2016 , almost all presidential polls pointed to a Hillary Clinton victory over Donald Trump , ” Graham said .
“ The IBD/TIPP Poll was one @ @ @ @ @ @ @ predicting President Trump ’ s 2016 surprise showing .
TIPP , IBD ’ s polling partner , succeeded in picking up on the greater enthusiasm among Republicans for their candidate.
” The recent IBD/TIPP polling once again sees a similar trend in enthusiasm .
“ The latest IBD/TIPP Trump vs. Biden poll has some similarities with the Trump vs. Clinton race , ” Graham said .
“ Republicans again seem more excited about their candidate.
” The of the 2016 race saw Trump leading Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton , 45 % to 43.4 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Trump won the election , he by 2.1 points .
Despite incorrectly calling the national race , IBD/TIPP was rated as one of the two most accurate pollsters during the 2016 election in a Washington Post , only being bested by McClatchy/Marist polls .
But elections in the United States are decided by the Electoral College , not a national popular vote .
When it came to polling in 2016 , it was swing states that pollsters had the most trouble nailing down .
Trump ended up winning many states that polls in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Wisconsin .
One pollster that seemed to have its fingers on the pulse of the election in 2016 swing states was Trafalgar Group .
It was the only polling operation to show correctly that Trump was leading in Michigan and Pennsylvania , two states that helped push Trump to victory .
“ We ended up having an incredible year , ” Robert Cahaly , Trafalgar ’ s head pollster , recently National Review .
“ I mean , we got Pennsylvania right .
We got Michigan right .
We had the best poll @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2016 .
And I actually predicted 306 to 232 on the Electoral College .
And we went from doing a little bit of polling on the side to that [ being ] our primary business in about 24 hours .
And since then , that ’ s what we ’ ve been doing.
” Trafalgar is standing by itself again in 2020 , with its polls showing Trump ahead or narrowly behind in key battleground states .
The pollster ’ s latest shows Biden leading , 47.6 % to 46.3 % , a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ RealClearPolitics that shows Biden up 6.3 points .
Trafalgar shows similar results in , where its more recent poll has Biden leading Trump , 47.4 % to 45.1 % , a 2.3-point edge for Biden .
The current RealClearPolitics in Pennsylvania has Biden leading by 3.7 points .
In other swing states , Trafalgar ’ s polls actually give Trump the advantage .
In , the pollster has Trump leading Biden , 46.5 % to 45.9 % , a slim 0.6-point edge .
But RealClearPolitics 's says the opposite , showing Biden leading @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has Trump leading Biden , 48.4 % to 46.1 % , or 2.3 points .
The current RealClearPolitics in Florida shows Biden up by 1.6 points .
In , Trafalgar has Trump ahead , 47.8 % to 43.8 % , a 4-point lead .
The RealClearPolitics shows Biden leading by 3.1 points in the state .
Trafalgar also shows Trump ahead , 47.8 % to 46.1 % , in its most recent poll , a 1.7-point edge .
RealClearPolitics ’ s has Biden leading by 2.3 points .
Trafalgar says it succeeds where @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bias , ” what some have called the “ shy Trump voter.
” Trafalgar says it has methods of getting past that bias , giving the public a more accurate look at what ’ s really happening .
“ I ’ ve got to get past what you want to say in public and get to what you really feel because what ’ s in your heart is going to be what ’ s on that ballot , ” Cahaly said .
As for the 2020 race , Cahaly stands alone in predicting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ all happened right now , my best guess would be an Electoral College victory in the high 270s , low 280s , '' he said .

Two of the more accurate pollsters of the 2016 election see a tightening race as the 2020 election hits its final stretch.
“Today’s Trump vs. Biden poll finds that the race between President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden has suddenly gotten much tighter,” wrote Jed Graham of Investor’s Business Daily, the publication behind the poll. “IBD/TIPP’s latest 2020 presidential poll shows that Republicans are rallying around Trump, Biden is leaking Democratic support, and the gap among independents has narrowed.”
The IBD/TIPP poll, which is released daily, had Biden leading Trump, 48.1% to 45.8%, nationally on Oct. 20, a 2.3-point advantage for Biden. That stands in stark contrast to the current RealClearPolitics average , which shows Biden leading by 7.9 points nationally. IBD/TIPP’s Oct. 21 poll showed similar results, with Biden leading with 48.5% to Trump's 46%, a new high for the president.
“Since the IBD/TIPP 2020 Presidential Election Tracking Poll launched on Monday, Oct. 12, Biden’s support has slipped 3.8 points, from 51.9% to a new low-water mark of 48.1%,” Graham said. “Trump poll numbers have gone the other way, rising 2.4 points to his new high-water mark of 45.8%. Biden’s lead peaked at 8.6 points in the Oct. 13 presidential poll.”
With the race getting so narrow down the homestretch, Graham questioned whether the results were “shades of 2016.”
“In 2016, almost all presidential polls pointed to a Hillary Clinton victory over Donald Trump,” Graham said. “The IBD/TIPP Poll was one of only two election polls credited with predicting President Trump’s 2016 surprise showing. TIPP, IBD’s polling partner, succeeded in picking up on the greater enthusiasm among Republicans for their candidate.”
The recent IBD/TIPP polling once again sees a similar trend in enthusiasm.
“The latest IBD/TIPP Trump vs. Biden poll has some similarities with the Trump vs. Clinton race,” Graham said. “Republicans again seem more excited about their candidate.”
The final IBD/TIPP poll of the 2016 race saw Trump leading Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton, 45% to 43.4%, a 1.6-point advantage. While Trump won the election, he lost the national popular vote by 2.1 points. Despite incorrectly calling the national race, IBD/TIPP was rated as one of the two most accurate pollsters during the 2016 election in a Washington Post analysis , only being bested by McClatchy/Marist polls.
But elections in the United States are decided by the Electoral College, not a national popular vote. When it came to polling in 2016, it was swing states that pollsters had the most trouble nailing down. Trump ended up winning many states that polls showed him trailing in, including Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
One pollster that seemed to have its fingers on the pulse of the election in 2016 swing states was Trafalgar Group. It was the only polling operation to show correctly that Trump was leading in Michigan and Pennsylvania, two states that helped push Trump to victory.
“We ended up having an incredible year,” Robert Cahaly, Trafalgar’s head pollster, recently told National Review. “I mean, we got Pennsylvania right. We got Michigan right. We had the best poll in five of the battleground states in 2016. And I actually predicted 306 to 232 on the Electoral College. And we went from doing a little bit of polling on the side to that [being] our primary business in about 24 hours. And since then, that’s what we’ve been doing.”
Trafalgar is standing by itself again in 2020, with its polls showing Trump ahead or narrowly behind in key battleground states.
The pollster’s latest Wisconsin poll shows Biden leading, 47.6% to 46.3%, a slim 1.3-point advantage dwarfed by the current RealClearPolitics average that shows Biden up 6.3 points. Trafalgar shows similar results in Pennsylvania , where its more recent poll has Biden leading Trump, 47.4% to 45.1%, a 2.3-point edge for Biden. The current RealClearPolitics average in Pennsylvania has Biden leading by 3.7 points.
In other swing states, Trafalgar’s polls actually give Trump the advantage. In Michigan , the pollster has Trump leading Biden, 46.5% to 45.9%, a slim 0.6-point edge. But RealClearPolitics's average says the opposite, showing Biden leading by 7.2 points. Its latest Florida poll has Trump leading Biden, 48.4% to 46.1%, or 2.3 points. The current RealClearPolitics average in Florida shows Biden up by 1.6 points. In Arizona , Trafalgar has Trump ahead, 47.8% to 43.8%, a 4-point lead. The RealClearPolitics average shows Biden leading by 3.1 points in the state. Trafalgar also shows Trump ahead, 47.8% to 46.1%, in its most recent North Carolina poll, a 1.7-point edge. RealClearPolitics’s average has Biden leading by 2.3 points.
Trafalgar says it succeeds where others fail by accounting for “social-desirability bias,” what some have called the “shy Trump voter.” Trafalgar says it has methods of getting past that bias, giving the public a more accurate look at what’s really happening.
“I’ve got to get past what you want to say in public and get to what you really feel because what’s in your heart is going to be what’s on that ballot,” Cahaly said.
As for the 2020 race, Cahaly stands alone in predicting a Trump victory.
“If it all happened right now, my best guess would be an Electoral College victory in the high 270s, low 280s," he said.


bonginoreport--2020-10-21--A Fight Over the U.S. Defense Budget Is Brewing

House Armed Services Committee ( HASC ) chair Rep. Adam Smith says he predicts a fight will erupt over the U.S. defense budget .
In a call with reporters on Wednesday , Smith said there ’ s a divide on views toward cutting the defense budget , with Republicans wanting to spend more and Democrats wanting to cut , and neither having sound strategies in place to justify either position .
“ I see a big fight coming , ” he said .
Smith said he disagrees with a 10 to 20 percent cut to the defense budget that his @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fact , he had voted against Democratic Rep. Mark Pocan ’ s amendment to cut the defense budget by 10 percent in July .
“ Would I commit to a 10 or 20 percent cut ?
No , I would not , ” he said on Wednesday .
“ I ’ m unconvinced that our national security policy would be what it needs to be if we cut the budget 10 or 20 percent.
” The HASC is in charge of the defense budget and determines where the funding is allocated .
While @ @ @ @ @ @ @ spending , he ’ s equally critical of irrational defense cuts .
Smith also took aim at his colleagues who are pushing for defense cuts without a strategic plan in place .
“ There has to be national security policy behind the cuts , ” he said .
“ It can ’ t just be ‘ I want to spend money elsewhere because I don ’ t like the Defense Department.
’ ” Smith said there is “ an aggressive push ” by some who claim the U.S. military a global threat and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ t agree with that , ” Smith said .
Smith also criticized Republican ’ s approach to the defense budget , which he said is “ spend more money , buy more stuff , and therefore we ’ ll be better.
” “ I ’ m not impressed by throwing numbers out there to make people feel tough and strong , ” Smith said , adding that deterring adversaries is not just about military strength alone , but also depends on partnerships and allies .
“ An excessive reliable on military deterrence @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Instead , Smith said he favors a flatline cut of approximately $ 10 billion to $ 20 billion lower .
“ Somewhere in 720 to 740 [ billion ] range going forward , ” he explained .
Earlier this month , Smith said that a 20 percent defense cut was not “ rational policy , ” adding that there were “ extremists ” on both sides of the political aisle .
Despite the “ fight ” expected with the defense budget , Smith doesn ’ t anticipate anything getting in the way @ @ @ @ @ @ @

House Armed Services Committee (HASC) chair Rep. Adam Smith says he predicts a fight will erupt over the U.S. defense budget.
In a call with reporters on Wednesday, Smith said there’s a divide on views toward cutting the defense budget, with Republicans wanting to spend more and Democrats wanting to cut, and neither having sound strategies in place to justify either position. “I see a big fight coming,” he said.
Smith said he disagrees with a 10 to 20 percent cut to the defense budget that his Democrat colleagues have pushed for. In fact, he had voted against Democratic Rep. Mark Pocan’s amendment to cut the defense budget by 10 percent in July.
“Would I commit to a 10 or 20 percent cut? No, I would not,” he said on Wednesday. “I’m unconvinced that our national security policy would be what it needs to be if we cut the budget 10 or 20 percent.”
The HASC is in charge of the defense budget and determines where the funding is allocated. While Smith has been critical of wasteful defense spending, he’s equally critical of irrational defense cuts.
Smith also took aim at his colleagues who are pushing for defense cuts without a strategic plan in place.
“There has to be national security policy behind the cuts,” he said. “It can’t just be ‘I want to spend money elsewhere because I don’t like the Defense Department.’”
Smith said there is “an aggressive push” by some who claim the U.S. military a global threat and a destabilizing force. “I don’t agree with that,” Smith said.
Smith also criticized Republican’s approach to the defense budget, which he said is “spend more money, buy more stuff, and therefore we’ll be better.”
“I’m not impressed by throwing numbers out there to make people feel tough and strong,” Smith said, adding that deterring adversaries is not just about military strength alone, but also depends on partnerships and allies. “An excessive reliable on military deterrence is a mistake,” he added.
Instead, Smith said he favors a flatline cut of approximately $10 billion to $20 billion lower. “Somewhere in 720 to 740 [billion] range going forward,” he explained.
Earlier this month, Smith said that a 20 percent defense cut was not “rational policy,” adding that there were “extremists” on both sides of the political aisle.
Despite the “fight” expected with the defense budget, Smith doesn’t anticipate anything getting in the way of the budget passing in December.


bonginoreport--2020-10-21--Censorship Backfire: Hunter Biden Laptop Story Dominates Social Media

New revelations published by the New York Post surrounding former Vice President Joe Biden 's involvement with his son 's business dealings in Ukraine topped all other stories related to the upcoming US presidential election in the past week , according to a new report by Axios .
The story contradicts earlier claims by Joe Biden that he had no involvement in his son 's business dealings in Ukraine .
Leaked emails acquired from Hunter Biden 's laptop appear to show executives of the Ukrainian energy firm Burisma were , in fact , introduced to the former Vice President .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ Hunter Biden story received 4.7 million interactions on social media .
The story received 1.9 million more engagements than the second most interacted with story of the week , which concerned the social media censorship of the revelations .
According to the report , five of the top ten articles shared over Facebook and Twitter over the week were directly related to the Hunter Biden revelations .
The story , however , was not the top story of the month , being surpassed by Trump testing positive for COVID-19 , among a few @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to censor the story has backfired , with conservatives sounding the alarm once again about the ability of big tech to meddle in elections .
Twitter justified suppressing the story under rules regarding `` hacked material , '' despite the fact that the material was not retrieved through hacking , while Facebook justified their suppression of the story by arguing that it had not yet been subject to fact-checking .
Democratic officials , members of the intelligence community , and members of the press have claimed that the revelations are part of a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ which have been disputed by Director of National Intelligence John Ratcliffe , stating that “ there is no intelligence that supports ” to support such claims .
Twitter also announced that they would be modifying their `` hacked material '' rules to only apply to those who actually engaged in hacking .
The Senate Judiciary and Commerce Committees announced in the aftermath of the censorship that they would be issuing subpoenas to Jack Dorsey , CEO of Twitter , and Mark Zuckerberg , CEO of Facebook .
Such plans have been delayed , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ companies to suppress the story is yet another example of the so-called `` Streisand effect , '' whereby those who seek to censor stories over social media inadvertently creates even greater interest in the topic .
As noted in an article from the MIT Technology Review on Monday , the censorship of the story likely doubled its overall visibility and caused it to gain even more attention than it otherwise would have .
The laptop is now in the possession of the FBI .

New revelations published by the New York Post surrounding former Vice President Joe Biden's involvement with his son's business dealings in Ukraine topped all other stories related to the upcoming US presidential election in the past week, according to a new report by Axios.
The story contradicts earlier claims by Joe Biden that he had no involvement in his son's business dealings in Ukraine. Leaked emails acquired from Hunter Biden's laptop appear to show executives of the Ukrainian energy firm Burisma were, in fact, introduced to the former Vice President.
Between October 12th and 19th, the Hunter Biden story received 4.7 million interactions on social media. The story received 1.9 million more engagements than the second most interacted with story of the week, which concerned the social media censorship of the revelations.
According to the report, five of the top ten articles shared over Facebook and Twitter over the week were directly related to the Hunter Biden revelations. The story, however, was not the top story of the month, being surpassed by Trump testing positive for COVID-19, among a few others.
It appears that the attempt to censor the story has backfired, with conservatives sounding the alarm once again about the ability of big tech to meddle in elections. Twitter justified suppressing the story under rules regarding "hacked material," despite the fact that the material was not retrieved through hacking, while Facebook justified their suppression of the story by arguing that it had not yet been subject to fact-checking.
Democratic officials, members of the intelligence community, and members of the press have claimed that the revelations are part of a "Russian disinformation campaign," allegations which have been disputed by Director of National Intelligence John Ratcliffe, stating that “there is no intelligence that supports” to support such claims.
Twitter also announced that they would be modifying their "hacked material" rules to only apply to those who actually engaged in hacking. The Senate Judiciary and Commerce Committees announced in the aftermath of the censorship that they would be issuing subpoenas to Jack Dorsey, CEO of Twitter, and Mark Zuckerberg, CEO of Facebook. Such plans have been delayed, however.
The failure of social media companies to suppress the story is yet another example of the so-called "Streisand effect," whereby those who seek to censor stories over social media inadvertently creates even greater interest in the topic. As noted in an article from the MIT Technology Review on Monday, the censorship of the story likely doubled its overall visibility and caused it to gain even more attention than it otherwise would have.
The laptop is now in the possession of the FBI.


bonginoreport--2020-10-22--Alex Plitsas: The Obama Administration Turned A Blind Eye To Hunter Biden’s Overseas Dealings — That

Alex Plitsas: The Obama Administration Turned A Blind Eye To Hunter Biden’s Overseas Dealings — That’s How We Got ‘Bidengate’

The New York Post ’ s bombshell expose , featuring emails , text messages and photographs from a computer that reportedly belonged to Hunter Biden , allegedly implicates Vice President Joe Biden in criminal activity just two weeks before Election Day .
Social media platforms such as Twitter and Facebook were widely condemned for putting up a warning and attempting to limit access to several New York Post articles written about the subject .
Twitter claimed the articles violated policy regarding “ hacked ” material — even though there is no evidence that the material was hacked .
At the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ York Post ’ s Twitter account remains locked .
Democrat politicians and pundits have also rushed to the Biden team ’ s defense , stating that the material is obvious Russian disinformation .
Several federal sources with direct knowledge of the situation , however , have confirmed that the photos and texts printed by the New York Post are in fact genuine and corroborated .
They have also confirmed the existence of federal investigations into a number of subjects related to the reports .
Additionally , the Director of National Intelligence has now @ @ @ @ @ @ @ intelligence that Hunter Biden ’ s laptop or its contents are part of a Russian disinformation campaign .
It should also be noted that neither Joe nor Hunter Biden have thus far issued an explicit denial of the reported contents of the laptop .
Hunter Biden has suffered from a widely publicized addiction to illegal drugs and a penchant for high-risk activities for a number of years .
His struggle with addiction is one with which many Americans find familiar and sympathize .
During the course of his addiction and highly compromised lifestyle @ @ @ @ @ @ @ business dealings in Ukraine and China while maintaining access to senior U.S. policy makers .
He was therefore vulnerable to exploitation or recruitment by hostile foreign intelligence services .
At the time this was happening , Joe Biden was Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and then Vice President of the United States with a policy portfolio that included Ukraine .
Joe Biden has previously claimed no knowledge of Hunter ’ s business dealings .
This flies in the face of the fact that members of the Obama administration were concerned about @ @ @ @ @ @ @ least one reported email from the laptop also calls his assertion into question .
In it , a Ukrainian businessman thanks Hunter for the opportunity to have met with his father .
The Biden campaign said that they could not find an official meeting on the former Vice President ’ s official calendars , but said it was possible that a meeting took place .
Sources have confirmed that the number of files found on the laptop is “ voluminous.
” As material has been corroborated , it has complicated efforts for federal @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the material has to be reviewed in its entirety to determine what , if any , material may have been either altered or included in an attempt to deceive federal authorities and the American public , which is a daunting and painstaking task .
Several factors , including how the laptop was found , Hunter ’ s vulnerabilities and the fact that Rudy Giuliani had been openly seeking information about Hunter in Ukraine , triggered a counterintelligence review .
Hunter ’ s laptop was allegedly brought to a repair shop in his @ @ @ @ @ @ @ agreement supposedly included a clause that after a certain amount of time , if the laptop was not claimed , it became property of the repair shop owners .
As such , the material was not “ hacked ” as Twitter has suggested .
The shop owner allegedly turned over the hard drive to the FBI .
The owner also made copies of the hard drive and provided them to Rudy Giuliani ’ s lawyer .
Giuliani then provided the copy of the hard drive to the Post and has promised to release @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Giuliani was openly seeking information on Hunter Biden ’ s activities in Ukraine , resulting in the allegations that he was the target of a Russian disinformation campaign .
The fact that the information about the alleged material is coming through Steve Bannon , who was reportedly the first to find out about the hard drive , and Giuliani — both Trump operatives — should be noted .
They have also refused to disclose the entire digital archive which would allow researchers to determine if any material has been altered or is not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ situation .
As it is within 60 days of the general election , it is Justice Department policy not to comment on investigations that have an ability to impact an election .
This precedent was broken in the lead up to the 2016 election when then-FBI Director James Comey commented on the investigation into Hillary Clinton ’ s email server .
He revealed that the FBI had in fact found classified information on her server after she had attempted to have it “ wiped clean.
” Unfortunately , Mr. Comey has now set @ @ @ @ @ @ @ comment on the ongoing investigation .
In the end , the failure of the Obama administration , and Vice President Biden in particular , to intervene in Hunter Biden ’ s overseas business dealings , which they found troubling , or to distance him from senior U.S. policy makers has led to the current situation .
It shows a complete lack of judgment and placed U.S. national security and policy making at risk .
Alex Plitsas is a national security professional , Bronze Star Medal recipient , and U.S. Army combat veteran of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in Afghanistan as a Defense Civilian Intelligence Officer and at the Pentagon as Chief of Sensitive Activities for the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Special Operations & Low-Intensity Conflict .
He completed his undergraduate studies at American University and attended graduate school at Johns Hopkins University .
He lives in the New York Metropolitan area .
Follow him on Twitter @ alexplitsas and Parler @ alexjplitsas .

The New York Post’s bombshell expose, featuring emails, text messages and photographs from a computer that reportedly belonged to Hunter Biden, allegedly implicates Vice President Joe Biden in criminal activity just two weeks before Election Day.
Social media platforms such as Twitter and Facebook were widely condemned for putting up a warning and attempting to limit access to several New York Post articles written about the subject. Twitter claimed the articles violated policy regarding “hacked” material — even though there is no evidence that the material was hacked. At the time of this writing, the New York Post’s Twitter account remains locked.
Democrat politicians and pundits have also rushed to the Biden team’s defense, stating that the material is obvious Russian disinformation. Several federal sources with direct knowledge of the situation, however, have confirmed that the photos and texts printed by the New York Post are in fact genuine and corroborated. They have also confirmed the existence of federal investigations into a number of subjects related to the reports.
Additionally, the Director of National Intelligence has now revealed that there is no evidence or intelligence that Hunter Biden’s laptop or its contents are part of a Russian disinformation campaign. It should also be noted that neither Joe nor Hunter Biden have thus far issued an explicit denial of the reported contents of the laptop.
Hunter was and remains a national security risk
Hunter Biden has suffered from a widely publicized addiction to illegal drugs and a penchant for high-risk activities for a number of years. His struggle with addiction is one with which many Americans find familiar and sympathize. During the course of his addiction and highly compromised lifestyle, however, Hunter engaged in foreign business dealings in Ukraine and China while maintaining access to senior U.S. policy makers. He was therefore vulnerable to exploitation or recruitment by hostile foreign intelligence services.
At the time this was happening, Joe Biden was Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and then Vice President of the United States with a policy portfolio that included Ukraine. Joe Biden has previously claimed no knowledge of Hunter’s business dealings. This flies in the face of the fact that members of the Obama administration were concerned about Hunter’s foreign dealings. At least one reported email from the laptop also calls his assertion into question. In it, a Ukrainian businessman thanks Hunter for the opportunity to have met with his father. The Biden campaign said that they could not find an official meeting on the former Vice President’s official calendars, but said it was possible that a meeting took place.
The volume of material
Sources have confirmed that the number of files found on the laptop is “voluminous.” As material has been corroborated, it has complicated efforts for federal counterintelligence investigators. From a methodology standpoint, the material has to be reviewed in its entirety to determine what, if any, material may have been either altered or included in an attempt to deceive federal authorities and the American public, which is a daunting and painstaking task. Several factors, including how the laptop was found, Hunter’s vulnerabilities and the fact that Rudy Giuliani had been openly seeking information about Hunter in Ukraine, triggered a counterintelligence review.
The source
Hunter’s laptop was allegedly brought to a repair shop in his home state of Delaware. The service agreement supposedly included a clause that after a certain amount of time, if the laptop was not claimed, it became property of the repair shop owners. As such, the material was not “hacked” as Twitter has suggested. The shop owner allegedly turned over the hard drive to the FBI. The owner also made copies of the hard drive and provided them to Rudy Giuliani’s lawyer. Giuliani then provided the copy of the hard drive to the Post and has promised to release more information in the coming week.
Giuliani was openly seeking information on Hunter Biden’s activities in Ukraine, resulting in the allegations that he was the target of a Russian disinformation campaign. The fact that the information about the alleged material is coming through Steve Bannon, who was reportedly the first to find out about the hard drive, and Giuliani — both Trump operatives — should be noted. They have also refused to disclose the entire digital archive which would allow researchers to determine if any material has been altered or is not genuine, casting further suspicion on the situation.
The timing
As it is within 60 days of the general election, it is Justice Department policy not to comment on investigations that have an ability to impact an election. This precedent was broken in the lead up to the 2016 election when then-FBI Director James Comey commented on the investigation into Hillary Clinton’s email server. He revealed that the FBI had in fact found classified information on her server after she had attempted to have it “wiped clean.” Unfortunately, Mr. Comey has now set the expectation that the Justice Department should comment on the ongoing investigation.
In the end, the failure of the Obama administration, and Vice President Biden in particular, to intervene in Hunter Biden’s overseas business dealings, which they found troubling, or to distance him from senior U.S. policy makers has led to the current situation. It shows a complete lack of judgment and placed U.S. national security and policy making at risk.
Alex Plitsas is a national security professional, Bronze Star Medal recipient, and U.S. Army combat veteran of the Iraq War. He also served in Afghanistan as a Defense Civilian Intelligence Officer and at the Pentagon as Chief of Sensitive Activities for the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Special Operations & Low-Intensity Conflict.
He completed his undergraduate studies at American University and attended graduate school at Johns Hopkins University. He lives in the New York Metropolitan area. Follow him on Twitter @alexplitsas and Parler @alexjplitsas.


bonginoreport--2020-10-22--John Stossel: Bet the Election

John Stossel: Bet the Election

Donald Trump will probably lose the election .
As I write , The Economist says he has only an 8 percent chance of winning .
Nate Silver 's FiveThirtyEight , which came closest to predicting Trump 's win in 2016 and has the best track record among modelers , gives Trump just a 12 percent chance .
But people who `` put money where their mouths are '' give Trump a better chance : 37 percent .
That 's according to roughly that often.
, the website I created with Maxim Lott .
It tracks multiple betting sites around the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ seems like a giant lead for Joe Biden , 37 percent means Trump is likely to win one-third of the time .
Four years ago , most bettors were wrong about Trump and Brexit .
I assume they learned from that and adjusted their 2020 bets .
But since bettors were wrong in 2016 , why trust betting odds now ?
Because betting is a better predictor than polls , pundits , statistical models and everything else .
ElectionBettingOdds.com has tracked hundreds of races .
When bettors think a candidate has a 37 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ roughly that often .
A research scientist at Amazon concluded that in the last presidential election , ElectionBettingOdds.com beat all other existing public prediction models except for Nate Silver 's polls-plus model .
Silver says : `` Betting markets are populated by people with a sophomoric knowledge of politics ... Traders are emotionally invested in political outcomes . ''
Also , `` Markets ( are ) not super liquid ... way different than sports where you have a much more sophisticated player base and more liquidity . ''
But our site takes odds @ @ @ @ @ @ @ U.S. and a cryptocurrency-based exchange .
More than $ 200 million has been bet .
As Silver says in his excellent book , `` The Signal and the Noise , '' `` A lot of smart people have failed miserably when they thought they could beat the market . ''
Overall , bettors have the best track record .
Last election , The New York Times ' `` expert model '' had Hillary Clinton ahead 85 percent to 15 percent .
The Princeton Election Consortium gave Clinton a 99 percent chance .
( @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ) Daily Kos had Clinton at 92 percent .
Huffington Post had 98 percent .
Those two stopped operating after that embarrassment .
Silver is one modeler who 's often beaten the market .
In 2016 , he gave Trump the highest odds , and in 2018 , he was the most confident that Democrats would win the House .
On the other hand , his FiveThirtyEight model was confident Democrats would win Florida 's and Indiana 's Senate races , making Democrats 70 % favorites in both states .
But Republicans won @ @ @ @ @ @ @ actual results .
Bettors do well because they consider many things not easily captured by polls and statistical models .
How many mail-in ballots do not get counted ?
In the New York state primary this year , 20 percent were disqualified for irregularities .
FiveThirtyEight `` built in an extra layer of uncertainty this year because of the possibility that the pandemic will disrupt usual turnout patterns . ''
But bettors believe it 's not enough .
Bettors also consider the possibility that polls are wrong in some new way .
In @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in Wisconsin , Michigan and Pennsylvania , but pollsters had n't questioned enough voters without college degrees .
Who knows what mistakes pollsters are making now ?
Betting sites ' track records also do well because bettors invest their own money .
That focuses the mind .
They say there 's a 56 percent chance a COVID-19 vaccine will be approved by March 31 , and a 22 percent chance that Trump will pardon himself during his first term .
They give 50/50 odds that this year be the hottest year on record @ @ @ @ @ @ @ percent ) and Baltimore Ravens ( 13 percent ) have the best chance to win the Super Bowl , but since their total is only 30 percent , some other team is likely to win .
Back to politics , ElectionBettingOdds.com 's Senate map predicts Democrats will retake the senate , and might even sweep every contested state .
If that happens , Democrats would have the power to end the filibuster , pack the Supreme Court and pass their whole agenda with simple majorities .
As a libertarian , I sure hope @ @ @ @ @ @ @ keep watching the odds at ElectionBettingOdds.com .
They update every 5 minutes .
John Stossel is author of `` Give Me a Break : How I Exposed Hucksters , Cheats , and Scam Artists and Became the Scourge of the Liberal Media . ''
For other Creators Syndicate writers and cartoonists , visit www.creators.com .

Donald Trump will probably lose the election.
As I write, The Economist says he has only an 8 percent chance of winning.
Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight, which came closest to predicting Trump's win in 2016 and has the best track record among modelers, gives Trump just a 12 percent chance.
But people who "put money where their mouths are" give Trump a better chance: 37 percent.
That's according to roughly that often., the website I created with Maxim Lott. It tracks multiple betting sites around the world.
Though 61 to 37 percent seems like a giant lead for Joe Biden, 37 percent means Trump is likely to win one-third of the time.
Four years ago, most bettors were wrong about Trump and Brexit. I assume they learned from that and adjusted their 2020 bets.
But since bettors were wrong in 2016, why trust betting odds now?
Because betting is a better predictor than polls, pundits, statistical models and everything else.
ElectionBettingOdds.com has tracked hundreds of races. When bettors think a candidate has a 37 percent chance -- they really do win roughly that often.
A research scientist at Amazon concluded that in the last presidential election, ElectionBettingOdds.com beat all other existing public prediction models except for Nate Silver's polls-plus model.
Silver says: "Betting markets are populated by people with a sophomoric knowledge of politics... Traders are emotionally invested in political outcomes." Also, "Markets (are) not super liquid... way different than sports where you have a much more sophisticated player base and more liquidity."
But our site takes odds from betting sites in Europe, the U.S. and a cryptocurrency-based exchange. More than $200 million has been bet.
As Silver says in his excellent book, "The Signal and the Noise," "A lot of smart people have failed miserably when they thought they could beat the market."
Overall, bettors have the best track record. Last election, The New York Times' "expert model" had Hillary Clinton ahead 85 percent to 15 percent. The Princeton Election Consortium gave Clinton a 99 percent chance. (Now they give Biden 98.2 percent.)
Daily Kos had Clinton at 92 percent. Huffington Post had 98 percent. Those two stopped operating after that embarrassment.
Silver is one modeler who's often beaten the market. In 2016, he gave Trump the highest odds, and in 2018, he was the most confident that Democrats would win the House.
On the other hand, his FiveThirtyEight model was confident Democrats would win Florida's and Indiana's Senate races, making Democrats 70% favorites in both states. But Republicans won. Bettors were closer to predicting the actual results.
Bettors do well because they consider many things not easily captured by polls and statistical models.
How many mail-in ballots do not get counted? In the New York state primary this year, 20 percent were disqualified for irregularities.
FiveThirtyEight "built in an extra layer of uncertainty this year because of the possibility that the pandemic will disrupt usual turnout patterns." But bettors believe it's not enough.
Bettors also consider the possibility that polls are wrong in some new way.
In 2016, polls showed Clinton well ahead in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, but pollsters hadn't questioned enough voters without college degrees. Who knows what mistakes pollsters are making now?
Betting sites' track records also do well because bettors invest their own money. That focuses the mind.
Today, bettors make other interesting predictions:
They say there's a 56 percent chance a COVID-19 vaccine will be approved by March 31, and a 22 percent chance that Trump will pardon himself during his first term.
They give 50/50 odds that this year be the hottest year on record.
The Kansas City Chiefs (17 percent) and Baltimore Ravens (13 percent) have the best chance to win the Super Bowl, but since their total is only 30 percent, some other team is likely to win.
Back to politics, ElectionBettingOdds.com's Senate map predicts Democrats will retake the senate, and might even sweep every contested state.
If that happens, Democrats would have the power to end the filibuster, pack the Supreme Court and pass their whole agenda with simple majorities.
As a libertarian, I sure hope that doesn't happen.
I'll keep watching the odds at ElectionBettingOdds.com. They update every 5 minutes.
John Stossel is author of "Give Me a Break: How I Exposed Hucksters, Cheats, and Scam Artists and Became the Scourge of the Liberal Media." For other Creators Syndicate writers and cartoonists, visit www.creators.com.


bonginoreport--2020-10-22--Paris Dennard: Trump Is a Champion for the Black Community—The Platinum Plan Is Just Another Example

Paris Dennard: Trump Is a Champion for the Black Community—The Platinum Plan Is Just Another Example Of What He’s Doing

One of the hallmarks of President Donald J. Trump ’ s success in the private sector , and now the public sector , is his openness to working together with a diverse group of people to get things done .
As a businessman , President Trump worked with the NAACP in 1987 and was named chairman of the New York Citizens Committee for their 78th NAACP Convention .
In subsequent years he worked with Rev .
Jesse Jackson ’ s Rainbow Push Coalition Wall Street Project where he attended and spoke two years in a row .
In fact , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rights organization to raise awareness about the need for diversity on Wall Street .
Rev .
Jackson said of Mr. Trump , he “ created for many people a comfort zone when I ran for the Presidency , in ’ 84 and ’ 88 .
And [ although ] many others thought it was something laughable or something to avoid , he came to our business meeting here in New York , because he has this sense of the curious and a will to risk to make things better .
So aside from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , he is a serious person who is an effective builder of building for the builder people.
” Donald Trump had no problem working with diverse groups and people to get things done that would benefit the greater good .
It is not surprising that President Trump has taken this same bipartisan approach to governance .
He has been willing to work , listen , and meet with anyone that is serious about Making American Great Again for every citizen .
This president has formed unlikely alliances that run counter to what the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ uplift all Americans but in particular , the black community .
During the 2016 campaign , President Trump met with a group of black clergy in Trump Tower .
After he won the election , the Trump Transition team followed the lead of the president-elect and held listening sessions with key black leaders from both sides of the aisle .
There was a major meeting of well over 100 black leaders and organizations like the NAACP , National Urban League , NOBLE , National Action Network , 100 Black Men , National Council @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Fund , and others held in Washington , D.C .
There were meetings between the president-elect and Bob Johnson , Steve Harvey , Martin Luther King , III , Ray Lewis , and Kanye West .
When it came to criminal justice reform , President Trump and his administration worked with Van Jones and Kim Kardashian who amplified the work of the White House on the First Step Act and important clemency and pardon actions that helped Americans like Alice Johnson .
When the White House reached out to Senator Kamala Harris about @ @ @ @ @ @ @ she refused to return the phone call .
The Trump White House was willing to work with people like Robert F. Smith and John Hope Bryant when it came to ensuring that more resources were getting to those who needed it most during this global pandemic .
Working with black-owned banks , CDFIs , and other organizations on the ground have led to well over 200 meetings , calls , and visits touching over 1,000 stakeholders from both sides of the aisle .
I am proud that black conservative organizations have had a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ proud that well known and up and coming black Republican leaders , like myself , have had a seat at the table .
But I am most proud of the way the Trump White House has done what this president has always done , reached out , been unafraid to directly engage , and form unlikely political alliances to get things done for black America .
Behind the scenes , the Trump administration has been working with hundreds of people and organizations on the ground in the black community that are truly making @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of economic development , public safety , education , health and wellness , criminal justice , and faith to come up with many of the policies and solutions rolled out to help traditionally underserved communities hit especially hard during this pandemic .
When President Trump unveiled his second-term agenda for Black Economic Empowerment , the “ Platinum Plan , ” it was not created quickly to pander for black votes the last 30 days of the election .
This plan is the culmination of several months of hard work , listening sessions , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ community groups , experts , and people like Ice Cube .
If you have good ideas and are willing to work with President Trump , President Trump will work with you .
Ice Cube had his own Contract with Black America because he realized that to get things done you have to be politically active to get the reforms needed through policy .
When the Trump White House reached out to Ice Cube after he posted it , he was willing to work with the White House to have some of his ideas @ @ @ @ @ @ @ life-changing , and historic Platinum Plan .
Leading by example , President Trump and his team care about what black America has to say and is listening , and acting , while the other side just seems to take them for granted .
We have heard about the relationships between President Reagan and Speaker Tip O ’ Neill , or more recently Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg and Justice Antonin Scalia , but we should also talk about President Donald Trump and the countless examples of reaching across the aisle , working with real @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bipartisan fashion to address criminal justice reform , COVID-19 , education , public safety , economic development , health disparities , and his new Platinum Plan , keeping his promises to truly help Make America Great Again .
Paris Dennard is a GOP political commentator , strategist , and senior communications adviser for Black Media Affairs at the Republican National Committee and Black Voices for Trump Advisory Board member .
Follow him on Twitter at @ PARISDENNARD .

One of the hallmarks of President Donald J. Trump’s success in the private sector, and now the public sector, is his openness to working together with a diverse group of people to get things done.
As a businessman, President Trump worked with the NAACP in 1987 and was named chairman of the New York Citizens Committee for their 78th NAACP Convention. In subsequent years he worked with Rev. Jesse Jackson’s Rainbow Push Coalition Wall Street Project where he attended and spoke two years in a row. In fact, President Trump donated space for the civil rights organization to raise awareness about the need for diversity on Wall Street.
Rev. Jackson said of Mr. Trump, he “created for many people a comfort zone when I ran for the Presidency, in ’84 and ’88. And [although] many others thought it was something laughable or something to avoid, he came to our business meeting here in New York, because he has this sense of the curious and a will to risk to make things better. So aside from all of his style and his pizazz, he is a serious person who is an effective builder of building for the builder people.”
Donald Trump had no problem working with diverse groups and people to get things done that would benefit the greater good.
It is not surprising that President Trump has taken this same bipartisan approach to governance. He has been willing to work, listen, and meet with anyone that is serious about Making American Great Again for every citizen. This president has formed unlikely alliances that run counter to what the media says about him to empower and uplift all Americans but in particular, the black community.
During the 2016 campaign, President Trump met with a group of black clergy in Trump Tower. After he won the election, the Trump Transition team followed the lead of the president-elect and held listening sessions with key black leaders from both sides of the aisle.
There was a major meeting of well over 100 black leaders and organizations like the NAACP, National Urban League, NOBLE, National Action Network, 100 Black Men, National Council of Negro Women, United Negro College Fund, and others held in Washington, D.C. There were meetings between the president-elect and Bob Johnson, Steve Harvey, Martin Luther King, III, Ray Lewis, and Kanye West.
When it came to criminal justice reform, President Trump and his administration worked with Van Jones and Kim Kardashian who amplified the work of the White House on the First Step Act and important clemency and pardon actions that helped Americans like Alice Johnson. When the White House reached out to Senator Kamala Harris about the First Step Act, sadly, she refused to return the phone call.
The Trump White House was willing to work with people like Robert F. Smith and John Hope Bryant when it came to ensuring that more resources were getting to those who needed it most during this global pandemic. Working with black-owned banks, CDFIs, and other organizations on the ground have led to well over 200 meetings, calls, and visits touching over 1,000 stakeholders from both sides of the aisle.
I am proud that black conservative organizations have had a seat at the table, I am proud that well known and up and coming black Republican leaders, like myself, have had a seat at the table. But I am most proud of the way the Trump White House has done what this president has always done, reached out, been unafraid to directly engage, and form unlikely political alliances to get things done for black America.
Behind the scenes, the Trump administration has been working with hundreds of people and organizations on the ground in the black community that are truly making a difference and impact in the areas of economic development, public safety, education, health and wellness, criminal justice, and faith to come up with many of the policies and solutions rolled out to help traditionally underserved communities hit especially hard during this pandemic.
When President Trump unveiled his second-term agenda for Black Economic Empowerment, the “Platinum Plan,” it was not created quickly to pander for black votes the last 30 days of the election. This plan is the culmination of several months of hard work, listening sessions, and working again with conservative leaders, community groups, experts, and people like Ice Cube.
If you have good ideas and are willing to work with President Trump, President Trump will work with you. Ice Cube had his own Contract with Black America because he realized that to get things done you have to be politically active to get the reforms needed through policy. When the Trump White House reached out to Ice Cube after he posted it, he was willing to work with the White House to have some of his ideas included in this holistic, achievable, life-changing, and historic Platinum Plan.
Leading by example, President Trump and his team care about what black America has to say and is listening, and acting, while the other side just seems to take them for granted.
We have heard about the relationships between President Reagan and Speaker Tip O’Neill, or more recently Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg and Justice Antonin Scalia, but we should also talk about President Donald Trump and the countless examples of reaching across the aisle, working with real people on the ground, in a bipartisan fashion to address criminal justice reform, COVID-19, education, public safety, economic development, health disparities, and his new Platinum Plan, keeping his promises to truly help Make America Great Again.
Paris Dennard is a GOP political commentator, strategist, and senior communications adviser for Black Media Affairs at the Republican National Committee and Black Voices for Trump Advisory Board member. Follow him on Twitter at @PARISDENNARD.


bonginoreport--2020-10-22--Tesla Posts Record Sales Growth

Tesla Posts Record Sales Growth

Tesla scored a record-setting quarter Wednesday , notching its fifth straight profitable quarter and delivering 139,300 vehicles during the third quarter , a new record for the carmaker .
Tesla 's numbers exceeded Wall Street expectations and CEO Elon Musk and his team say they are now `` increasingly focused on our next phase of growth . ''
Profits jumped 105 % from the year-ago period to $ 0.76 per share , ahead of the $ 0.57 cent estimate , while total revenues climbed 39 % to $ 8.77 billion , above the $ 8.36 billion that was expected .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ its factory in Fremont , Calif..
The goal is to produce 500,000 Model 3 and Model Y vehicles a year , which would represent a slight increase in capacity .
Increased production continues to be a goal of the company .
In Berlin , Germany one factory is already under construction with production expected to commence next year .
In the U.S. , the carmaker is also looking to move into the truck sector and is at work on a new factory in Austin , Tx .
Musk said that Tesla 's Cybertruck @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at the end of next year “ CLICK HERE TO READ MORE ON FOX BUSINESS

Tesla scored a record-setting quarter Wednesday, notching its fifth straight profitable quarter and delivering 139,300 vehicles during the third quarter, a new record for the carmaker.
Tesla's numbers exceeded Wall Street expectations and CEO Elon Musk and his team say they are now "increasingly focused on our next phase of growth."
Ticker Security Last Change Change % TSLA TESLA INC. 232.96 -6.80 -2.84%
Profits jumped 105% from the year-ago period to $0.76 per share, ahead of the $0.57 cent estimate, while total revenues climbed 39% to $8.77 billion, above the $8.36 billion that was expected.
TESLA'S CEO MUSK THROWS DOWN GAUNTLET, SLASHING PRICE OF MODEL S
Tesla shares have gained 405% this year.
Tesla said it has increased production at its factory in Fremont, Calif.. The goal is to produce 500,000 Model 3 and Model Y vehicles a year, which would represent a slight increase in capacity.
Increased production continues to be a goal of the company. In Berlin, Germany one factory is already under construction with production expected to commence next year.
In the U.S., the carmaker is also looking to move into the truck sector and is at work on a new factory in Austin, Tx. Musk said that Tesla's Cybertruck is expected to start shipping to customers at the end of next year “
CLICK HERE TO READ MORE ON FOX BUSINESS


bonginoreport--2020-10-22--Mark W. Menezes: The USMCA: Great Neighbors, Better Trade Deals

President Trump often says that his “ America First ” foreign policy does not mean “ America Alone.
” Nowhere is this better exemplified than in the new United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement ( USMCA ) .
USMCA is a trilateral trade deal that replaces the outdated , ineffective North American Trade Agreement ( NAFTA ) and better positions the American economy and its private sector for success .
USMCA reflects the reality of the United States ’ expansive trade relationships with Canada and Mexico , ensuring that American companies are protected while operating abroad and the American people are reaping the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ provides assurance that in times of natural disasters that Americans across the country have access to reliable energy .
There are few industries that stand to benefit more from this agreement than our oil and natural gas producers and fuel manufacturers .
First , USMCA maintains zero-tariff energy exports through the continent , facilitating the free flow of energy across North American borders .
Second , USMCA supports the development of new pipeline infrastructure to transport oil and natural gas safely and efficiently .
Third , exports of liquefied natural gas , or @ @ @ @ @ @ @ export approval .
And finally , this new framework reinforces Mexican energy reforms that have broadened its commercial ties to the United States .
According to the International Trade Commission , USMCA ’ s implementation – which occurred earlier this summer – will help create between 176,000 and 589,000 new American jobs , and drive tens of billions of dollars ’ worth of new North American trade across the economic spectrum .
Canada and Mexico are our largest energy trading partners , with both countries serving as critical markets for American energy imports @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of dollars in revenue into our economy .
This trade has supported the United States ’ emergence as the world ’ s largest oil and natural gas producer – a global superpower whose stature helped provide much-needed stability to the global markets earlier this year during the outset of the COVID-19 pandemic .
In fact , North American energy trade helped the U.S. become the world ’ s largest oil refiner , home to 20 percent of global refining capacity .
Canada and Mexico also supply nearly all of U.S. crude oil imports @ @ @ @ @ @ @ source fuel from friends and neighbors instead of less reliable foreign regimes .
As such , the national security benefits of strengthening these trade relationships is paramount .
USMCA equips North America with the tools and mechanisms it needs to enhance its energy independence , which in turn bolsters our mutual sovereignty by lessening our dependence on energy imports from countries who do not uphold the same adherence to free markets , transparency , and the rule of law .
The United States ’ relatively newfound energy supremacy is based in no small @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the private sector .
Our nation is blessed with tremendous amounts of natural resources – from traditional fuel sources like oil , coal , and natural gas , as well as renewable energy sources .
President Trump ’ s energy policy allows us – perhaps for the first time , the full potential of our resource abundance and fuel diversity .
In the short-term , this deal will create energy sector jobs and raise family incomes as we emerge from the shadows of the coronavirus pandemic .
In the future , led by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ greater energy-driven innovation and provide energy security for North America in an increasingly uncertain world .
Through the USMCA , the Trump administration is delivering for the American people .
Mark W. Menezes is the U.S. Deputy Secretary of Energy , responsible for the Department ’ s policy initiatives .

President Trump often says that his “America First” foreign policy does not mean “America Alone.” Nowhere is this better exemplified than in the new United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA).
USMCA is a trilateral trade deal that replaces the outdated, ineffective North American Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and better positions the American economy and its private sector for success.
USMCA reflects the reality of the United States’ expansive trade relationships with Canada and Mexico, ensuring that American companies are protected while operating abroad and the American people are reaping the benefits of cross-border partnership. It also provides assurance that in times of natural disasters that Americans across the country have access to reliable energy.
There are few industries that stand to benefit more from this agreement than our oil and natural gas producers and fuel manufacturers.
First, USMCA maintains zero-tariff energy exports through the continent, facilitating the free flow of energy across North American borders.
Second, USMCA supports the development of new pipeline infrastructure to transport oil and natural gas safely and efficiently.
Third, exports of liquefied natural gas, or LNG, will continue to receive automatic export approval.
And finally, this new framework reinforces Mexican energy reforms that have broadened its commercial ties to the United States.
According to the International Trade Commission, USMCA’s implementation – which occurred earlier this summer – will help create between 176,000 and 589,000 new American jobs, and drive tens of billions of dollars’ worth of new North American trade across the economic spectrum.
Canada and Mexico are our largest energy trading partners, with both countries serving as critical markets for American energy imports and exports and driving tens of billions of dollars in revenue into our economy. This trade has supported the United States’ emergence as the world’s largest oil and natural gas producer – a global superpower whose stature helped provide much-needed stability to the global markets earlier this year during the outset of the COVID-19 pandemic.
In fact, North American energy trade helped the U.S. become the world’s largest oil refiner, home to 20 percent of global refining capacity. Canada and Mexico also supply nearly all of U.S. crude oil imports, ensuring that we are able to source fuel from friends and neighbors instead of less reliable foreign regimes.
As such, the national security benefits of strengthening these trade relationships is paramount. USMCA equips North America with the tools and mechanisms it needs to enhance its energy independence, which in turn bolsters our mutual sovereignty by lessening our dependence on energy imports from countries who do not uphold the same adherence to free markets, transparency, and the rule of law.
The United States’ relatively newfound energy supremacy is based in no small part to the efficiency and innovation of the private sector. Our nation is blessed with tremendous amounts of natural resources – from traditional fuel sources like oil, coal, and natural gas, as well as renewable energy sources. President Trump’s energy policy allows us – perhaps for the first time, the full potential of our resource abundance and fuel diversity.
USMCA represents a new era for American trade deals.
In the short-term, this deal will create energy sector jobs and raise family incomes as we emerge from the shadows of the coronavirus pandemic. In the future, led by the United States, it will unleash greater energy-driven innovation and provide energy security for North America in an increasingly uncertain world.
Through the USMCA, the Trump administration is delivering for the American people.
Mark W. Menezes is the U.S. Deputy Secretary of Energy, responsible for the Department’s policy initiatives.


bonginoreport--2020-10-22--President Biden Would Throw U.S. Security Policies Into Reverse

Contrary to the predictions of some pundits , the presidential race is not tightening up as Election Day approaches .
To quote Niall Stanage of The Hill , “ The Democratic presidential nominee has a commanding lead in national polls over President Trump , and he has the edge in almost all of the battleground states.
” Joe Biden thus is likely to be elected president in November .
If that occurs , U.S. security policies will change .
The Trump approach to national security is not unlike the stance of the Republican Party prior to World War II , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ protectionism and isolationism .
It is a distinct departure , though , from the priorities espoused by both parties in the postwar era .
Joe Biden played a key role in fashioning the postwar consensus , serving for decades on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and frequently reaching across the aisle to achieve bipartisan compromises .
In the process , he became recognized as an authority on national security .
The New York Times summed that up in an analysis of why Barack Obama picked Biden as his vice-presidential running mate on August @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ Chief among Mr. Biden ’ s strengths is his familiarity with foreign policy and national security issues.
” Because Biden has been so consistent in his views on security , it is not hard to see how he will change current U.S. policies .
In essence , he will reverse the main lines of Trump security policies , and return to the agenda followed during the Obama years .
Here are five big shifts that are certain to occur .
Collective security is back , beginning with NATO .
President Obama stated @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that “ In good times and bad , Europe can count on the United States—always.
” President Trump has done much to undermine that guarantee , but Biden ’ s website commits him to restoring and reimagining U.S. overseas partnerships .
Biden served on both the European and East Asian affairs subcommittees of the Foreign Relations Committee , and was a leading proponent of NATO enlargement after the collapse of the Soviet Union .
As president , Biden will abandon Trump ’ s transactional approach to allies and reaffirm Washington ’ s embrace @ @ @ @ @ @ @ t just apply to Europe : his website says , “ We will also strengthen our alliances with Japan , South Korea , Australia and other Asian democracies , while sustaining an ironclad commitment to Israel ’ s security.
” Biden ’ s stance is identical to that of candidate Obama in 2008 , who stated in his main security pronouncement that he would “ restore our global partnerships ” —a reference to the fraying of allied relations arising from the controversial war in Iraq .
Arms control is back , beginning with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ leading proponent of arms control from his earliest days in the Senate .
He consistently pressed for agreements that would reduce the scale of superpower nuclear arsenals , and he opposed efforts to weaken or withdraw from the 1972 anti-ballistic missile treaty , which effectively banned defenses against nuclear attack .
Biden ’ s view , shared by many Democrats , was that it would be impossible to cap warhead levels if each side pursued defenses , because more weapons would be needed to assure an effective retaliatory capability .
The Trump administration @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with Russia , most notably the intermediate-range nuclear forces agreement , and only last week rebuffed a Russian proposal to extend the existing limit on long-range nuclear weapons , known as New START .
Candidate Biden has stated that if elected he will agree to a five-year extension and work to expand the limits in New START .
That may signal further reductions in the 1,550 strategic warheads permitted under the treaty .
Military intervention is back , beginning with Venezuela .
Joe Biden ’ s voting record in the Senate was “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ American Politics , which may imply an aversion to foreign military adventures .
However , that is not what his record actually shows .
In 1999 he supported the Balkan air war .
In 2001 he supported invading Afghanistan .
In 2002 he supported invading Iraq .
As Vice President he supported military intervention in Libya and the arming of Syrian rebels .
So when candidate Biden says on his website that he will “ never hesitate ” to protect U.S. interests , including if necessary “ using force , ” there is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
A Biden presidency thus would be more likely to use U.S. military forces overseas than President Trump has been .
Trump has been so unwilling to commit U.S. forces anywhere that he has let the illegitimate government of Nicholas Maduro continue running Venezuela into the ground .
Joe Biden is more likely to send troops to end Maduro ’ s continuous violation of democratic norms , especially given the relatively modest tactical challenge that removing Maduro would entail .
Multilateralism is back , beginning with climate change .
President Trump ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the phrase “ America First , ” is well-known .
Joe Biden has always been a strong supporter of multi-nation solutions to pressing global problems , and his concept of national security encompasses such non-military challenges as climate change and infectious diseases .
Biden will move to rejoin the Paris Climate Agreement within weeks after inauguration .
Like his views on alliances , Biden ’ s affinity for multilateral action is grounded in a belief that the U.S. should seek partners and build coalitions rather than trying to go it alone in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , beginning with Saudi Arabia .
President Trump ’ s approach to national security is heavily focused on economic outcomes .
As Richard Haass observes in the current issue of Foreign Affairs , “ Trump has shown little interest in advocating human rights , advancing democracy , alleviating humanitarian hardship , or addressing global challenges such as migration.
” That will change markedly under Biden , who has had less exposure to the business world and more exposure to the pursuit of democratic standards .
This will likely make it harder for Washington @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , which has been involved in a series of humanitarian offenses during the Trump years .
Values may replace trade as the main focus of frictions with China in a Biden administration , and Biden is more likely to criticize certain domestic policies of the Modi government in India .
Biden may not replace realpolitik with idealpolitik in his foreign policy , but values will definitely play a bigger role in how Washington deals with foreign capitals .
As president , Biden is not likely to define broad new vistas in the practice @ @ @ @ @ @ @ novel thinker when it comes to security policy .
But the way he thinks about security is grounded in a characteristically American approach to the world that has far more in common with the Bushes and Obama than it does with Donald Trump .
Oliver Wendell Homes Jr. ’ s description of Franklin Roosevelt could be applied fairly to Joe Biden— “ a second-rate intellect but a first-rate temperament .
”

Contrary to the predictions of some pundits, the presidential race is not tightening up as Election Day approaches. To quote Niall Stanage of The Hill, “The Democratic presidential nominee has a commanding lead in national polls over President Trump, and he has the edge in almost all of the battleground states.”
Joe Biden thus is likely to be elected president in November. If that occurs, U.S. security policies will change. The Trump approach to national security is not unlike the stance of the Republican Party prior to World War II, with a strong emphasis on nationalism, protectionism and isolationism. It is a distinct departure, though, from the priorities espoused by both parties in the postwar era.
Joe Biden played a key role in fashioning the postwar consensus, serving for decades on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and frequently reaching across the aisle to achieve bipartisan compromises. In the process, he became recognized as an authority on national security.
The New York Times summed that up in an analysis of why Barack Obama picked Biden as his vice-presidential running mate on August 23, 2008, stating that, “Chief among Mr. Biden’s strengths is his familiarity with foreign policy and national security issues.”
Vice President Biden during operation that killed Osama bin Laden. Wikipedia
Because Biden has been so consistent in his views on security, it is not hard to see how he will change current U.S. policies. In essence, he will reverse the main lines of Trump security policies, and return to the agenda followed during the Obama years. Here are five big shifts that are certain to occur.
Collective security is back, beginning with NATO. President Obama stated at his last NATO summit in 2016 that “In good times and bad, Europe can count on the United States—always.” President Trump has done much to undermine that guarantee, but Biden’s website commits him to restoring and reimagining U.S. overseas partnerships. Biden served on both the European and East Asian affairs subcommittees of the Foreign Relations Committee, and was a leading proponent of NATO enlargement after the collapse of the Soviet Union.
As president, Biden will abandon Trump’s transactional approach to allies and reaffirm Washington’s embrace of collective security. That doesn’t just apply to Europe: his website says, “We will also strengthen our alliances with Japan, South Korea, Australia and other Asian democracies, while sustaining an ironclad commitment to Israel’s security.” Biden’s stance is identical to that of candidate Obama in 2008, who stated in his main security pronouncement that he would “restore our global partnerships”—a reference to the fraying of allied relations arising from the controversial war in Iraq.
Arms control is back, beginning with New START. Joe Biden was a leading proponent of arms control from his earliest days in the Senate. He consistently pressed for agreements that would reduce the scale of superpower nuclear arsenals, and he opposed efforts to weaken or withdraw from the 1972 anti-ballistic missile treaty, which effectively banned defenses against nuclear attack. Biden’s view, shared by many Democrats, was that it would be impossible to cap warhead levels if each side pursued defenses, because more weapons would be needed to assure an effective retaliatory capability.
The Trump administration has withdrawn from several arms control pacts with Russia, most notably the intermediate-range nuclear forces agreement, and only last week rebuffed a Russian proposal to extend the existing limit on long-range nuclear weapons, known as New START. Candidate Biden has stated that if elected he will agree to a five-year extension and work to expand the limits in New START. That may signal further reductions in the 1,550 strategic warheads permitted under the treaty.
Military intervention is back, beginning with Venezuela. Joe Biden’s voting record in the Senate was “moderate-to-liberal” according to the Almanac of American Politics, which may imply an aversion to foreign military adventures. However, that is not what his record actually shows. In 1999 he supported the Balkan air war. In 2001 he supported invading Afghanistan. In 2002 he supported invading Iraq. As Vice President he supported military intervention in Libya and the arming of Syrian rebels. So when candidate Biden says on his website that he will “never hesitate” to protect U.S. interests, including if necessary “using force,” there is plenty of evidence to support that claim.
A Biden presidency thus would be more likely to use U.S. military forces overseas than President Trump has been. Trump has been so unwilling to commit U.S. forces anywhere that he has let the illegitimate government of Nicholas Maduro continue running Venezuela into the ground. Joe Biden is more likely to send troops to end Maduro’s continuous violation of democratic norms, especially given the relatively modest tactical challenge that removing Maduro would entail.
Multilateralism is back, beginning with climate change. President Trump’s penchant for unilateral action, exemplified by the phrase “America First,” is well-known. Joe Biden has always been a strong supporter of multi-nation solutions to pressing global problems, and his concept of national security encompasses such non-military challenges as climate change and infectious diseases. Biden will move to rejoin the Paris Climate Agreement within weeks after inauguration. Like his views on alliances, Biden’s affinity for multilateral action is grounded in a belief that the U.S. should seek partners and build coalitions rather than trying to go it alone in the world.
Promoting American values is back, beginning with Saudi Arabia. President Trump’s approach to national security is heavily focused on economic outcomes. As Richard Haass observes in the current issue of Foreign Affairs, “Trump has shown little interest in advocating human rights, advancing democracy, alleviating humanitarian hardship, or addressing global challenges such as migration.” That will change markedly under Biden, who has had less exposure to the business world and more exposure to the pursuit of democratic standards.
This will likely make it harder for Washington to maintain cordial relations with Saudi Arabia, which has been involved in a series of humanitarian offenses during the Trump years. Values may replace trade as the main focus of frictions with China in a Biden administration, and Biden is more likely to criticize certain domestic policies of the Modi government in India. Biden may not replace realpolitik with idealpolitik in his foreign policy, but values will definitely play a bigger role in how Washington deals with foreign capitals.
As president, Biden is not likely to define broad new vistas in the practice of statecraft. He is not a novel thinker when it comes to security policy. But the way he thinks about security is grounded in a characteristically American approach to the world that has far more in common with the Bushes and Obama than it does with Donald Trump. Oliver Wendell Homes Jr.’s description of Franklin Roosevelt could be applied fairly to Joe Biden—“a second-rate intellect but a first-rate temperament.”


bonginoreport--2020-10-22--Trump National Security Advisor: China is the “Threat of the Century”

ABOARD HMS QUEEN ELIZABETH ( Reuters ) - President Donald Trump ’ s national security adviser accused China on Wednesday of trying to steal COVID-19 vaccine research from the West , casting it as a malign rival that was seeking to monopolise every important industry of the 21st Century .
Trump identifies China as the United States ’ main competitor , and has accused the Chinese Communist Party of taking advantage over trade and not telling the truth over the novel coronavirus outbreak , which he calls the “ China plague ” .
In a 20-minute broadside against China , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and U.S. military and intelligence officials that China was a predatory power that repressed its people and had sought to coerce both neighbours and Western powers .
“ The CCP is seeking dominance in all domains and sectors ... ( and ) plans to monopolise every industry that matters to the 21st century , ” O ’ Brien told the Atlantic Future Forum via a video link to Navy aircraft carrier HMS Queen Elizabeth .
“ Most recently the PRC used cyber-enabled espionage to target companies developing Covid vaccines and treatments in Europe @ @ @ @ @ @ @ all the while touting the need for international cooperation , ” O ’ Brien said .
China , under President Xi Jinping , says the West - and Washington in particular - is gripped by anti-Chinese hysteria , colonial thinking and simply anger that China is now once again one of the world ’ s top two economies .
China ’ s economic and military rise over the past 40 years is considered to be one of the most significant geopolitical events of recent times , alongside the 1991 fall of the Soviet @ @ @ @ @ @ @ O ’ Brien said the West had for decades granted China concessions , including membership of the World Trade Organization , believing it would open up economically and politically , while easing its own barriers against foreign companies .
“ Sadly , those are promises that to this day it has not kept , ” said the 54-year-old former Los Angeles lawyer .
“ Instead the CCP leaders doubled down on their totalitarian approach and mercantilist , state-dominated economy.
” China in 1979 had an economy that was smaller than Italy ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and introducing market reforms it has become the world ’ s second-largest economy .
It is now the global leader in a range of 21st Century technologies such as artificial intelligence , regenerative medicine and conductive polymers .
China ’ s response to the novel coronavirus outbreak had , O ’ Brien said , “ erased any lingering doubts about its intentions.
” He said China had co-opted international organizations and forced them to install Chinese telecommunicatiosn equipment in their facilities .
He accused the Communist Party of blocking foreign companies while subsidising @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s flagship international project , the so-called Belt and Road initiative , involved offering impoverished nations “ unsustainable loans ” to build “ white elephant ” infrastructure projects using Chinese firms and labourers .
“ These countries ’ dependence on Chinese debt leaves their sovereignty eroded and with no choice but to hew to the party ’ s line on UN votes and … other issues , ” said O ’ Brien .

ABOARD HMS QUEEN ELIZABETH (Reuters) - President Donald Trump’s national security adviser accused China on Wednesday of trying to steal COVID-19 vaccine research from the West, casting it as a malign rival that was seeking to monopolise every important industry of the 21st Century.
FILE PHOTO: U.S. President Donald Trump talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping as Xi arrives for dinner at the start of their summit at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate in West Palm Beach, Florida, U.S. April 6, 2017. REUTERS/Carlos Barria/File Photo/File Photo
Trump identifies China as the United States’ main competitor, and has accused the Chinese Communist Party of taking advantage over trade and not telling the truth over the novel coronavirus outbreak, which he calls the “China plague”.
In a 20-minute broadside against China, Robert O’Brien told top British and U.S. military and intelligence officials that China was a predatory power that repressed its people and had sought to coerce both neighbours and Western powers.
“The CCP is seeking dominance in all domains and sectors... (and) plans to monopolise every industry that matters to the 21st century,” O’Brien told the Atlantic Future Forum via a video link to Navy aircraft carrier HMS Queen Elizabeth.
“Most recently the PRC used cyber-enabled espionage to target companies developing Covid vaccines and treatments in Europe, the UK and the United States all the while touting the need for international cooperation,” O’Brien said.
China, under President Xi Jinping, says the West - and Washington in particular - is gripped by anti-Chinese hysteria, colonial thinking and simply anger that China is now once again one of the world’s top two economies.
China’s economic and military rise over the past 40 years is considered to be one of the most significant geopolitical events of recent times, alongside the 1991 fall of the Soviet Union which ended the Cold War.
O’Brien said the West had for decades granted China concessions, including membership of the World Trade Organization, believing it would open up economically and politically, while easing its own barriers against foreign companies.
“Sadly, those are promises that to this day it has not kept,” said the 54-year-old former Los Angeles lawyer. “Instead the CCP leaders doubled down on their totalitarian approach and mercantilist, state-dominated economy.”
China in 1979 had an economy that was smaller than Italy’s, but after opening to foreign investment and introducing market reforms it has become the world’s second-largest economy.
It is now the global leader in a range of 21st Century technologies such as artificial intelligence, regenerative medicine and conductive polymers.
China’s response to the novel coronavirus outbreak had, O’Brien said, “erased any lingering doubts about its intentions.”
He said China had co-opted international organizations and forced them to install Chinese telecommunicatiosn equipment in their facilities. He accused the Communist Party of blocking foreign companies while subsidising its own.
He said China’s flagship international project, the so-called Belt and Road initiative, involved offering impoverished nations “unsustainable loans” to build “white elephant” infrastructure projects using Chinese firms and labourers.
“These countries’ dependence on Chinese debt leaves their sovereignty eroded and with no choice but to hew to the party’s line on UN votes and … other issues,” said O’Brien.


bonginoreport--2020-10-22--Germany Continues to Not Meet 2 Percent NATO Spending Benchmark

Military spending among the U.S. 's allies in Europe and Canada increased for the sixth consecutive year , NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said Wednesday .
STUTTGART , Germany — Military spending among the U.S. ’ s allies in Europe and Canada increased for the sixth consecutive year in 2020 as one-third of member states reached a key alliance benchmark , a NATO report released Wednesday said .
But Germany , which has been accused by President Donald Trump of not spending enough on defense , spent only 1.57 % of gross domestic product on its military , the report said @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cited by Trump as a reason for issuing a directive to pull nearly 12,000 U.S. troops out of the country , although a plan to do so is still being developed by the Pentagon and it is unclear when a withdrawal would happen .
Ten of NATO ’ s 30 members were estimated to be spending at least 2 % of their GDP on their militaries , up from only three in 2014 , the report said .
NATO members have been under intense pressure to ramp up defense spending by the Trump @ @ @ @ @ @ @ among European allies and Canada for the year , Stoltenberg said .
Collectively , NATO members including the U.S. spent roughly $ 1.03 trillion on defense for 2020 , said the report , which was released a day ahead of a meeting of NATO defense ministers , including U.S. Defense Secretary Mark Esper , where spending will be on the agenda , Stoltenberg said .
In 2014 , when allies agreed that all members should meet NATO ’ s 2 % spending level by 2024 , only the U.S. , Greece and the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , NATO data shows Romania , Estonia , Latvia , Poland , Lithuania , France and Norway meeting the target .
Trump has taken credit for an overall boost in allied defense spending in recent years , and Stoltenberg has praised the U.S. president for making it a priority .
But the increases date back to 2014 when Russia ’ s military intervention in Ukraine led allies to reverse a downward trend in spending that began when the Cold War ended .
For many allies , especially those along NATO ’ s eastern @ @ @ @ @ @ @ were a motivating factor in boosting expenditures .

STUTTGART, Germany — Military spending among the U.S.’s allies in Europe and Canada increased for the sixth consecutive year in 2020 as one-third of member states reached a key alliance benchmark, a NATO report released Wednesday said.
But Germany, which has been accused by President Donald Trump of not spending enough on defense, spent only 1.57% of gross domestic product on its military, the report said.
Germany’s defense spending was cited by Trump as a reason for issuing a directive to pull nearly 12,000 U.S. troops out of the country, although a plan to do so is still being developed by the Pentagon and it is unclear when a withdrawal would happen.
Ten of NATO’s 30 members were estimated to be spending at least 2% of their GDP on their militaries, up from only three in 2014, the report said.
“We expect this trend to continue,” NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg told reporters.
NATO members have been under intense pressure to ramp up defense spending by the Trump administration. It increased by 4.3% among European allies and Canada for the year, Stoltenberg said.
Collectively, NATO members including the U.S. spent roughly $1.03 trillion on defense for 2020, said the report, which was released a day ahead of a meeting of NATO defense ministers, including U.S. Defense Secretary Mark Esper, where spending will be on the agenda, Stoltenberg said.
In 2014, when allies agreed that all members should meet NATO’s 2% spending level by 2024, only the U.S., Greece and the United Kingdom were in compliance. Now, NATO data shows Romania, Estonia, Latvia, Poland, Lithuania, France and Norway meeting the target.
Trump has taken credit for an overall boost in allied defense spending in recent years, and Stoltenberg has praised the U.S. president for making it a priority. But the increases date back to 2014 when Russia’s military intervention in Ukraine led allies to reverse a downward trend in spending that began when the Cold War ended.
For many allies, especially those along NATO’s eastern flank, Moscow’s aggressive moves were a motivating factor in boosting expenditures.
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