thelibertybeacon--2020-12-22--The Biggest Political Blunder … In American History !!!

If courts and state legislatures award Joe Biden the presidency , the anti-Trump cabal , driven by a four-year single-minded obsession to defeat President Trump , will have committed the greatest political blunder in American history — the unabashed and overt theft of the 2020 presidential election .
This myopic and oblivious group so misunderstood the depth and breadth of support for Donald Trump that their blatant manipulation of the election would fall monumentally short of the planned for and anticipated landslide defeat of the incumbent .
A landslide they needed in order to dominate the political arena for the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the electorate for their duplicity .
Thus , this cabal , which consists of the Democrat party establishment , Tech and Wall Street billionaires , the mainstream media and left-wing elitists , will find itself in a quagmire of being unable to govern .
The Democrat party ’ s dominant and radicalized left-wing base will revolt over failed promises and expectations while the extent of the fraud will inevitably be fully exposed , resulting in nearly half of the citizenry viewing the government as illegitimate .
The unleashing of Covid-19 on the world @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for massive voter fraud , primarily via mail-in ballots , to be introduced into traditional battleground states .
Operating on the four-year premise that the destruction of President Trump justifies any means , the Democrat party establishment extra-constitutionally imposed changes to election laws in a number of states .
At the same time their cadre of co-conspirators were also mobilized .
The social media oligarchs and the mainstream media controlled and blatantly censored the flow of information .
The self-styled progressive billionaires , in violation of campaign laws , poured untold millions into @ @ @ @ @ @ @ And the left-wing elites mobilized their army of foot soldiers to intimidate state and local politicians as well as state and federal judges in addition to being front-line participants in various statewide voter frauds .
These conspirators smugly believed that they had successfully set up a scenario wherein Donald Trump would be defeated in such a massive landslide that a vast majority of the citizenry would never question the results .
Further , Donald Trump would be so marginalized that his future as the leader of a growing political movement would be rendered @ @ @ @ @ @ @ his legs , back to Mar-A-Lago .
Thus leaving the political playing field in the hands of the established ruling class in near perpetuity .
Instead the worst-case scenario played out .
The election came down to four battleground states , Wisconsin , Georgia , Arizona , and Pennsylvania with a total margin for Joe Biden of 120,000 out of 18,600,000 legally or illegally cast votes or 0.6 % .
The question of fraud , despite the cowardice of the federal and state judiciaries , can not be swept under the rug particularly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ exposed .
Further , nearly half of all likely voters ( 75 % of Republicans and 30 % of Democrats ) believe there was sufficient fraud in the election to ensure Biden won .
Despite the best efforts of both social and mainstream media as well as the Democrat party hierarchy , that perception will never dramatically change , as in a recent poll just 56 % of Americans say Biden is their president .
Once in office , both Joe Biden and Kamala Harris would be viewed by a significant plurality of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to an unabashedly fraudulent election .
A citizenry already consumed with contempt for the ruling class due to their ham-handed police-state tactics in dealing with the Chinese Coronavirus is now waking up to their duplicity and megalomania .
Without the modicum of a mandate and open hostility towards a Biden/Harris Administration , there is very little the ruling class can do to enact their agenda with the specter of revenge in the 2022 mid-terms hanging over their heads .
However , there is a more pressing issue that will impact the nation .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ can rightfully claim that it was their grassroots efforts that pushed the Biden/Harris ticket over the top .
Had there been the landslide all had anticipated and planned for , then the left would have had no choice but to be satisfied with the crumbs from the executive table as their role in the election fraud would be downplayed .
But there will be no crumbs from the table , as many of the grandiose plans of the ruling class will have to be shelved .
This will not sit well with the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ they were mere pawns in the lawless seizure of power by their nemeses .
The billionaire class , the corporatists and the ruling elites and their collective self-interest runs counter to Marxist/socialist ideology of the left .
None of the promises made during the campaign season will be kept as these doctrinaire socialists and their leaders will be shunted to the side while their erstwhile allies focus on maintaining their stranglehold on the levers of power in the face of an aroused and determined opposition led by Donald Trump .
In the spring @ @ @ @ @ @ @ class , in a marriage of convenience , tacitly allied themselves with another anti-Trump faction , the left ’ s uncontrollable militant militias , Antifa and Black Lives Matter .
By their collective silence and capitulation in the face of ongoing riots , violence , intimidation and looting , they conveyed to these self-styled revolutionaries that they are spineless and easily intimidated .
When the radical left is ignored and marginalized by a Biden/Harris Administration and the frustration level reaches a boiling point , then these militants will again take to the streets @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The bitter harvest of massive election fraud will be a government beset with an inability to govern , as it will have no good will with the bulk of the American people and a political base it can not placate .
The perpetrators of this fraud are predestined to fail as well as hasten the ultimate demise of the Democrat Party .
The only issue outstanding is whether this nation will descend into chaos and bitterness as a result .
The Liberty Beacon Project is now expanding at a near exponential rate , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ excited !
But we must also be practical .
For 7 years we have not asked for any donations , and have built this project with our own funds as we grew .
We are now experiencing ever increasing growing pains due to the large number of websites and projects we represent .
So we have just installed donation buttons on our websites and ask that you consider this when you visit them .
Nothing is too small .
We thank you for all your support and your considerations … ( TLB )

The Biggest Political Blunder in American History
By: Steve McCann
If courts and state legislatures award Joe Biden the presidency, the anti-Trump cabal, driven by a four-year single-minded obsession to defeat President Trump, will have committed the greatest political blunder in American history — the unabashed and overt theft of the 2020 presidential election.
This myopic and oblivious group so misunderstood the depth and breadth of support for Donald Trump that their blatant manipulation of the election would fall monumentally short of the planned for and anticipated landslide defeat of the incumbent. A landslide they needed in order to dominate the political arena for the foreseeable future and avoid any backlash from the electorate for their duplicity.
Thus, this cabal, which consists of the Democrat party establishment, Tech and Wall Street billionaires, the mainstream media and left-wing elitists, will find itself in a quagmire of being unable to govern. The Democrat party’s dominant and radicalized left-wing base will revolt over failed promises and expectations while the extent of the fraud will inevitably be fully exposed, resulting in nearly half of the citizenry viewing the government as illegitimate.
The unleashing of Covid-19 on the world by the Chinese Communists opened the door for massive voter fraud, primarily via mail-in ballots, to be introduced into traditional battleground states. Operating on the four-year premise that the destruction of President Trump justifies any means, the Democrat party establishment extra-constitutionally imposed changes to election laws in a number of states.
At the same time their cadre of co-conspirators were also mobilized. The social media oligarchs and the mainstream media controlled and blatantly censored the flow of information. The self-styled progressive billionaires, in violation of campaign laws, poured untold millions into so-called get out the vote campaigns. And the left-wing elites mobilized their army of foot soldiers to intimidate state and local politicians as well as state and federal judges in addition to being front-line participants in various statewide voter frauds.
These conspirators smugly believed that they had successfully set up a scenario wherein Donald Trump would be defeated in such a massive landslide that a vast majority of the citizenry would never question the results. Further, Donald Trump would be so marginalized that his future as the leader of a growing political movement would be rendered moot as he slunk, tail between his legs, back to Mar-A-Lago. Thus leaving the political playing field in the hands of the established ruling class in near perpetuity.
Instead the worst-case scenario played out. The election came down to four battleground states, Wisconsin, Georgia, Arizona, and Pennsylvania with a total margin for Joe Biden of 120,000 out of 18,600,000 legally or illegally cast votes or 0.6%. The question of fraud, despite the cowardice of the federal and state judiciaries, cannot be swept under the rug particularly as so many illegalities have already been exposed.
Further, nearly half of all likely voters (75% of Republicans and 30% of Democrats) believe there was sufficient fraud in the election to ensure Biden won. Despite the best efforts of both social and mainstream media as well as the Democrat party hierarchy, that perception will never dramatically change, as in a recent poll just 56% of Americans say Biden is their president. Once in office, both Joe Biden and Kamala Harris would be viewed by a significant plurality of Americans as transparent frauds and imposters thanks to an unabashedly fraudulent election. A citizenry already consumed with contempt for the ruling class due to their ham-handed police-state tactics in dealing with the Chinese Coronavirus is now waking up to their duplicity and megalomania.
Without the modicum of a mandate and open hostility towards a Biden/Harris Administration, there is very little the ruling class can do to enact their agenda with the specter of revenge in the 2022 mid-terms hanging over their heads. However, there is a more pressing issue that will impact the nation. The left-wing base of the Democrat party can rightfully claim that it was their grassroots efforts that pushed the Biden/Harris ticket over the top. Had there been the landslide all had anticipated and planned for, then the left would have had no choice but to be satisfied with the crumbs from the executive table as their role in the election fraud would be downplayed.
But there will be no crumbs from the table, as many of the grandiose plans of the ruling class will have to be shelved. This will not sit well with the rank-and-file left-wing radicals as they will realize they were mere pawns in the lawless seizure of power by their nemeses. The billionaire class, the corporatists and the ruling elites and their collective self-interest runs counter to Marxist/socialist ideology of the left. None of the promises made during the campaign season will be kept as these doctrinaire socialists and their leaders will be shunted to the side while their erstwhile allies focus on maintaining their stranglehold on the levers of power in the face of an aroused and determined opposition led by Donald Trump.
In the spring and summer of 2020, the ruling class, in a marriage of convenience, tacitly allied themselves with another anti-Trump faction, the left’s uncontrollable militant militias, Antifa and Black Lives Matter. By their collective silence and capitulation in the face of ongoing riots, violence, intimidation and looting, they conveyed to these self-styled revolutionaries that they are spineless and easily intimidated. When the radical left is ignored and marginalized by a Biden/Harris Administration and the frustration level reaches a boiling point, then these militants will again take to the streets in an even more violent manner.
The bitter harvest of massive election fraud will be a government beset with an inability to govern, as it will have no good will with the bulk of the American people and a political base it cannot placate. The perpetrators of this fraud are predestined to fail as well as hasten the ultimate demise of the Democrat Party. The only issue outstanding is whether this nation will descend into chaos and bitterness as a result.
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Stay tuned to …
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The Liberty Beacon Project is now expanding at a near exponential rate, and for this we are grateful and excited! But we must also be practical. For 7 years we have not asked for any donations, and have built this project with our own funds as we grew. We are now experiencing ever increasing growing pains due to the large number of websites and projects we represent. So we have just installed donation buttons on our websites and ask that you consider this when you visit them. Nothing is too small. We thank you for all your support and your considerations … (TLB)
••••
Comment Policy: As a privately owned web site, we reserve the right to remove comments that contain spam, advertising, vulgarity, threats of violence, racism, or personal/abusive attacks on other users. This also applies to trolling, the use of more than one alias, or just intentional mischief. Enforcement of this policy is at the discretion of this websites administrators. Repeat offenders may be blocked or permanently banned without prior warning.
••••
Disclaimer: TLB websites contain copyrighted material the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. We are making such material available to our readers under the provisions of “fair use” in an effort to advance a better understanding of political, health, economic and social issues. The material on this site is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving it for research and educational purposes. If you wish to use copyrighted material for purposes other than “fair use” you must request permission from the copyright owner.
••••
Disclaimer: The information and opinions shared are for informational purposes only including, but not limited to, text, graphics, images and other material are not intended as medical advice or instruction. Nothing mentioned is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment.


thelibertybeacon--2020-12-22--Here’s another Wild Idea: if it was good enough for Thomas Paine . . .

Fighting Back is the New Normal I remember the old Communist regimes of Eastern Europe , as do many people of my generation .
Boy , those guys really had countries sewn up and buttoned down !
There were complete controls on internal travel , micro control of anything and everything uttered by the media , thought police , neighbours grassing up neighbours for expressing the wrong opinion , a relentless barrage of state propaganda , dissidents sent to the Gulags or condemned to psych wards where their brains were fried and a hard core of dedicated Communist party members @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I guess – to give the Party a solid bedrock of support .
And there was no internet .
The spreading of ideas was by word of mouth ( dangerous ) or using the old mimeograph machines to run off some clumsy newsletters or leaflets ( more dangerous ) which then had to be covertly distributed ( even more dangerous ) .
It was pretty grim .
You wonder how those people ever managed to get free of it .
But they did .
Against those seemingly overwhelming suppressive odds the human spirit @ @ @ @ @ @ @ free exchange of ideas prevailed and those brutal , scary micro-controlling regimes collapsed .
The Russian parliament even ended up getting shelled by the tanks of its own army !
There is a lesson in all this for all governments : if you want to perish fairly rapidly , do what the old CP did .
I remembered then , Thomas Paine , the English revolutionary who became one of the Founding Fathers of the US .
He played a vastly important role in the inspiring of the French and American revolutions and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ written word conveyed by pamphleteering .
In 1776 he published to international acclaim , “ Common Sense ” , which was the first pamphlet to advocate American independence .
Be that as it may , the point I am making here is that I well remember that those people had no internet , no mobiles , nothing but crude mimeograph machines by which they would slowly print off a few smudged copies of their dissident newsletters and handouts .
And Thomas Paine did not even have the mimeograph !
People held those little @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , assimilated the info on them and passed them on .
There ’ s something about a solid piece of paper you hold in your hands .
It carries more authority – more weight literally – somehow than the bazillions of electronic pulses that flash across your laptop screens .
I ’ d been thinking about the poor ruddy shopkeepers , cafe owners , publicans , gym owners and so forth victimised by our criminal government ’ s strikes against our communities using the smoke screen of their faked-up pandemic .
And remembering @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Eastern Europe and earlier in France and America did , I had a wild idea as to something our shopkeepers , publicans , cafe owners etc etc can do to fight back a little bit against the suppression – without doing anything illegal .
Suppose somebody put together some brief leaflet- or pamphlet-style messages explaining and exposing in bold , simple terms the hoax the government is running – and including an easy-to-remember link to a website where they can find out more info .
Suppose he then sends by email that message @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The recipient then prints off on his computer a few copies of it ( he can even change the wording before he does so if he wants , doesn ’ t matter ) .
He then places the leaflets on his shop counter , reception desk , bar or wherever customers can see them and pick them up .
Customers come in , pick up a leaflet , read it and make what they will of it .
This can also be extended into other areas if anyone wants to .
The leaflets @ @ @ @ @ @ @ left on public transport or here and there , quietly and unobtrusively on shelves in supermarkets and so forth .
The more swashbuckling souls among us can put them on car windscreens , through letter boxes or give them out in the street .
It is very casual .
People just run off a few copies and leave them for other people to notice and pick up .
There ’ s no pressure , no arguments .
The promotional pieces themselves are very matter-of-fact and avoid any distempered tones .
Many will already @ @ @ @ @ @ @ But they might hand it to someone else or leave it where someone else can pick it up .
Others will read it and it won ’ t impinge .
But if they see pretty much the same thing popping up here and there about the town , it is going to sooner or later .
But others will be given something to think about in their own time without anyone getting uptight with them or making them wrong .
And pretty soon someone will be saying to their spouse or friend , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this PCR test and how the government ’ s been pretending it can diagnose cases .
.
.
” If enough people did this sort of thing , very casually and stress free and without getting into arguments unless they enjoy arguing , pretty soon our info will be “ everywhere ” .
This gives shopkeepers and cafe owners and all the other business people hammered by this government something they can do to fight back WITHOUT doing anything unlawful .
Okay , so that is the wild idea for spreading our truth @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was good enough for Thomas Paine .
.
.
What do you think ?
I ’ d be perfectly willing to put the wording for a few of these promotional pieces together if anyone wants me to but it doesn ’ t have to be me .
Any writer can do it .
All I suggest is , make the message very matter-of-fact and dispassionate .
Leave a comment if you think I can help you with this .

Fighting Back is the New Normal
by Steve Cook
I remember the old Communist regimes of Eastern Europe, as do many people of my generation.
Boy, those guys really had countries sewn up and buttoned down!
There were complete controls on internal travel, micro control of anything and everything uttered by the media, thought police, neighbours grassing up neighbours for expressing the wrong opinion, a relentless barrage of state propaganda, dissidents sent to the Gulags or condemned to psych wards where their brains were fried and a hard core of dedicated Communist party members – maybe 20% of the population I guess – to give the Party a solid bedrock of support.
And there was no internet. The spreading of ideas was by word of mouth (dangerous) or using the old mimeograph machines to run off some clumsy newsletters or leaflets (more dangerous) which then had to be covertly distributed (even more dangerous).
It was pretty grim. You wonder how those people ever managed to get free of it. But they did.
Against those seemingly overwhelming suppressive odds the human spirit and its yearning for liberty and the free exchange of ideas prevailed and those brutal, scary micro-controlling regimes collapsed.
The Russian parliament even ended up getting shelled by the tanks of its own army!
There is a lesson in all this for all governments: if you want to perish fairly rapidly, do what the old CP did.
I remembered then, Thomas Paine, the English revolutionary who became one of the Founding Fathers of the US. He played a vastly important role in the inspiring of the French and American revolutions and did so through the power of the written word conveyed by pamphleteering. In 1776 he published to international acclaim, “Common Sense”, which was the first pamphlet to advocate American independence.
Be that as it may, the point I am making here is that I well remember that those people had no internet, no mobiles, nothing but crude mimeograph machines by which they would slowly print off a few smudged copies of their dissident newsletters and handouts. And Thomas Paine did not even have the mimeograph!
People held those little pamphlets in their hands, read them, assimilated the info on them and passed them on.
There’s something about a solid piece of paper you hold in your hands. It carries more authority – more weight literally – somehow than the bazillions of electronic pulses that flash across your laptop screens.
I’d been thinking about the poor ruddy shopkeepers, cafe owners, publicans, gym owners and so forth victimised by our criminal government’s strikes against our communities using the smoke screen of their faked-up pandemic.
And remembering the power of what those guys in Eastern Europe and earlier in France and America did, I had a wild idea as to something our shopkeepers, publicans, cafe owners etc etc can do to fight back a little bit against the suppression – without doing anything illegal.
Suppose somebody put together some brief leaflet- or pamphlet-style messages explaining and exposing in bold, simple terms the hoax the government is running – and including an easy-to-remember link to a website where they can find out more info.
Suppose he then sends by email that message to whoever wants to use it.
The recipient then prints off on his computer a few copies of it (he can even change the wording before he does so if he wants, doesn’t matter).
He then places the leaflets on his shop counter, reception desk, bar or wherever customers can see them and pick them up.
Customers come in, pick up a leaflet, read it and make what they will of it.
This can also be extended into other areas if anyone wants to. The leaflets can “accidentally on purpose” be left on public transport or here and there, quietly and unobtrusively on shelves in supermarkets and so forth. The more swashbuckling souls among us can put them on car windscreens, through letter boxes or give them out in the street.
It is very casual. People just run off a few copies and leave them for other people to notice and pick up. There’s no pressure, no arguments. The promotional pieces themselves are very matter-of-fact and avoid any distempered tones.
Many will already know the info in the leaflet. But they might hand it to someone else or leave it where someone else can pick it up.
Others will read it and it won’t impinge. But if they see pretty much the same thing popping up here and there about the town, it is going to sooner or later.
But others will be given something to think about in their own time without anyone getting uptight with them or making them wrong.
And pretty soon someone will be saying to their spouse or friend, “You know I was thinking about this PCR test and how the government’s been pretending it can diagnose cases . . . ”
If enough people did this sort of thing, very casually and stress free and without getting into arguments unless they enjoy arguing, pretty soon our info will be “everywhere”.
This gives shopkeepers and cafe owners and all the other business people hammered by this government something they can do to fight back WITHOUT doing anything unlawful.
Okay, so that is the wild idea for spreading our truth even further and faster.
If it was good enough for Thomas Paine . . .
What do you think?
I’d be perfectly willing to put the wording for a few of these promotional pieces together if anyone wants me to but it doesn’t have to be me. Any writer can do it. All I suggest is, make the message very matter-of-fact and dispassionate.
Leave a comment if you think I can help you with this.
••••
The Liberty Beacon Project is now expanding at a near exponential rate, and for this we are grateful and excited! But we must also be practical. For 7 years we have not asked for any donations, and have built this project with our own funds as we grew. We are now experiencing ever increasing growing pains due to the large number of websites and projects we represent. So we have just installed donation buttons on our websites and ask that you consider this when you visit them. Nothing is too small. We thank you for all your support and your considerations … (TLB)
••••
Comment Policy: As a privately owned web site, we reserve the right to remove comments that contain spam, advertising, vulgarity, threats of violence, racism, or personal/abusive attacks on other users. This also applies to trolling, the use of more than one alias, or just intentional mischief. Enforcement of this policy is at the discretion of this websites administrators. Repeat offenders may be blocked or permanently banned without prior warning.
••••
Disclaimer: TLB websites contain copyrighted material the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. We are making such material available to our readers under the provisions of “fair use” in an effort to advance a better understanding of political, health, economic and social issues. The material on this site is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving it for research and educational purposes. If you wish to use copyrighted material for purposes other than “fair use” you must request permission from the copyright owner.
••••
Disclaimer: The information and opinions shared are for informational purposes only including, but not limited to, text, graphics, images and other material are not intended as medical advice or instruction. Nothing mentioned is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment.


thelibertybeacon--2020-12-22--Lockdowns Do Not Control The Coronavirus: The Evidence

Lockdowns Do Not Control The Coronavirus : The Evidence The use of universal lockdowns in the event of the appearance of a new pathogen has no precedent .
It has been a science experiment in real time , with most of the human population used as lab rats .
The costs are legion .
Perhaps this is a shocking revelation , given that universal social and economic controls are becoming the new orthodoxy .
In a saner world , the burden of proof really should belong to the lockdowners , since it is they who overthrew 100 years of public-health @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , top-down imposition on freedom and human rights .
They never accepted that burden .
They took it as axiomatic that a virus could be intimidated and frightened by credentials , edicts , speeches , and masked gendarmes .
The pro-lockdown evidence is shockingly thin , and based largely on comparing real-world outcomes against dire computer-generated forecasts derived from empirically untested models , and then merely positing that stringencies and “ nonpharmaceutical interventions ” account for the difference between the fictionalized vs. the real outcome .
The anti-lockdown studies , on the other @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and thorough , grappling with the data we have ( with all its flaws ) and looking at the results in light of controls on the population .
Much of the following list has been put together by data engineer Ivor Cummins , who has waged a year-long educational effort to upend intellectual support for lockdowns .
AIER has added its own and the summaries .
The upshot is that the virus is going to do as viruses do , same as always in the history of infectious disease .
We have extremely @ @ @ @ @ @ @ which we do have is bound up with time and place .
Fear , panic , and coercion are not ideal strategies for managing viruses .
Intelligence and medical therapeutics fare much better .
1 .
“ A country level analysis measuring the impact of government actions , country preparedness and socioeconomic factors on COVID-19 mortality and related health outcomes ” by Rabail Chaudhry , George Dranitsaris , Talha Mubashir , Justyna Bartoszko , Sheila Riazi .
EClinicalMedicine 25 ( 2020 ) 100464 .
“ [ F ] ull lockdowns and wide-spread COVID-19 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the number of critical cases or overall mortality.
” 2 .
“ Was Germany ’ s Corona Lockdown Necessary ?
” by Christof Kuhbandner , Stefan Homburg , Harald Walach , Stefan Hockertz .
Advance : Sage Preprint , June 23 , 2020 .
“ Official data from Germany ’ s RKI agency suggest strongly that the spread of the coronavirus in Germany receded autonomously , before any interventions became effective .
Several reasons for such an autonomous decline have been suggested .
One is that differences in host susceptibility and behavior can @ @ @ @ @ @ @ low prevalence level .
Accounting for individual variation in susceptibility or exposure to the coronavirus yields a maximum of 17 % to 20 % of the population that needs to be infected to reach herd immunity , an estimate that is empirically supported by the cohort of the Diamond Princess cruise ship .
Another reason is that seasonality may also play an important role in dissipation.
” 3 .
“ Estimation of the current development of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Germany ” by Matthias an der Heiden , Osamah Hamouda .
Robert Koch-Institut @ @ @ @ @ @ @ In general , however , not all infected people develop symptoms , not all those who develop symptoms go to a doctor ’ s office , not all who go to the doctor are tested and not all who test positive are also recorded in a data collection system .
In addition , there is a certain amount of time between all these individual steps , so that no survey system , no matter how good , can make a statement about the current infection process without additional assumptions and calculations.
” 4 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lockdown ?
by Simon N. Wood .
Cornell University pre-print , August 8 , 2020 .
“ A Bayesian inverse problem approach applied to UK data on COVID-19 deaths and the disease duration distribution suggests that infections were in decline before full UK lockdown ( 24 March 2020 ) , and that infections in Sweden started to decline only a day or two later .
An analysis of UK data using the model of Flaxman et al .
( 2020 , Nature 584 ) gives the same result under relaxation of its prior @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Comment on Flaxman et al .
( 2020 ) : The illusory effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in Europe ” by Stefan Homburg and Christof Kuhbandner .
June 17 , 2020 .
Advance , Sage Pre-Print .
“ In a recent article , Flaxman et al .
allege that non-pharmaceutical interventions imposed by 11 European countries saved millions of lives .
We show that their methods involve circular reasoning .
The purported effects are pure artefacts , which contradict the data .
Moreover , we demonstrate that the United Kingdom ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 6 .
Professor Ben Israel ’ s Analysis of virus transmission .
April 16 , 2020 .
“ Some may claim that the decline in the number of additional patients every day is a result of the tight lockdown imposed by the government and health authorities .
Examining the data of different countries around the world casts a heavy question mark on the above statement .
It turns out that a similar pattern – rapid increase in infections that reaches a peak in the sixth week and declines from the eighth week – @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the disease was discovered , regardless of their response policies : some imposed a severe and immediate lockdown that included not only ‘ social distancing ’ and banning crowding , but also shutout of economy ( like Israel ) ; some ‘ ignored ’ the infection and continued almost a normal life ( such as Taiwan , Korea or Sweden ) , and some initially adopted a lenient policy but soon reversed to a complete lockdown ( such as Italy or the State of New York ) .
Nonetheless , the data shows @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in regard to the initial rapid growth and the decline of the disease.
” 7 .
“ Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19 in Europe : a quasi-experimental study ” by Paul Raymond Hunter , Felipe Colon-Gonzalez , Julii Suzanne Brainard , Steve Rushton .
MedRxiv Pre-print May 1 , 2020 .
“ The current epidemic of COVID-19 is unparalleled in recent history as are the social distancing interventions that have led to a significant halt on the economic and social life of so many countries .
However , there is very little @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have the most impact… From both sets of modelling , we found that closure of education facilities , prohibiting mass gatherings and closure of some non-essential businesses were associated with reduced incidence whereas stay at home orders and closure of all non-businesses was not associated with any independent additional impact.
” 8 .
“ Full lockdown policies in Western Europe countries have no evident impacts on the COVID-19 epidemic ” by Thomas Meunier .
MedRxiv Pre-print May 1 , 2020 .
“ This phenomenological study assesses the impacts of full lockdown strategies applied @ @ @ @ @ @ @ United Kingdom , on the slowdown of the 2020 COVID-19 outbreak .
Comparing the trajectory of the epidemic before and after the lockdown , we find no evidence of any discontinuity in the growth rate , doubling time , and reproduction number trends .
Extrapolating pre-lockdown growth rate trends , we provide estimates of the death toll in the absence of any lockdown policies , and show that these strategies might not have saved any life in western Europe .
We also show that neighboring countries applying less restrictive social distancing measures ( @ @ @ @ @ @ @ experience a very similar time evolution of the epidemic.
” 9 .
“ Trajectory of COVID-19 epidemic in Europe ” by Marco Colombo , Joseph Mellor , Helen M Colhoun , M. Gabriela M. Gomes , Paul M McKeigue .
MedRxiv Pre-print .
Posted September 28 , 2020 .
“ The classic Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model formulated by Kermack and McKendrick assumes that all individuals in the population are equally susceptible to infection .
From fitting such a model to the trajectory of mortality from COVID-19 in 11 European countries up to 4 May 2020 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ major non-pharmaceutical interventions — and lockdowns in particular — have had a large effect on reducing transmission ’ .
We show that relaxing the assumption of homogeneity to allow for individual variation in susceptibility or connectivity gives a model that has better fit to the data and more accurate 14-day forward prediction of mortality .
Allowing for heterogeneity reduces the estimate of ‘ counterfactual ’ deaths that would have occurred if there had been no interventions from 3.2 million to 262,000 , implying that most of the slowing and reversal of COVID-19 mortality @ @ @ @ @ @ @ immunity .
The estimate of the herd immunity threshold depends on the value specified for the infection fatality ratio ( IFR ) : a value of 0.3 % for the IFR gives 15 % for the average herd immunity threshold.
” 10 .
“ Effect of school closures on mortality from coronavirus disease 2019 : old and new predictions ” by Ken Rice , Ben Wynne , Victoria Martin , Graeme J Ackland .
British Medical Journal , September 15 , 2020 .
“ The findings of this study suggest that prompt interventions @ @ @ @ @ @ @ reducing peak demand for intensive care unit ( ICU ) beds but also prolong the epidemic , in some cases resulting in more deaths long term .
This happens because covid-19 related mortality is highly skewed towards older age groups .
In the absence of an effective vaccination programme , none of the proposed mitigation strategies in the UK would reduce the predicted total number of deaths below 200 000.
” 11 .
“ Modeling social distancing strategies to prevent SARS-CoV2 spread in Israel- A Cost-effectiveness analysis ” by Amir Shlomai , Ari @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Leshno .
MedRxiv Pre-Print .
September 20 , 2020 .
“ A nationwide lockdown is expected to save on average 274 ( median 124 , interquartile range ( IQR ) : 71-221 ) lives compared to the ‘ testing , tracing , and isolation ’ approach .
However , the ICER will be on average $ 45,104,156 ( median $ 49.6 million , IQR : 22.7-220.1 ) to prevent one case of death .
Conclusions : A national lockdown has a moderate advantage in saving lives with tremendous costs and possible overwhelming economic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in dealing with additional waves of this pandemic.
” 12 .
Too Little of a Good Thing A Paradox of Moderate Infection Control , by Ted Cohen and Marc Lipsitch .
Epidemiology .
2008 Jul ; 19 ( 4 ) : 588–589 .
“ The link between limiting pathogen exposure and improving public health is not always so straightforward .
Reducing the risk that each member of a community will be exposed to a pathogen has the attendant effect of increasing the average age at which infections occur .
For pathogens that inflict @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that reduce but do not eliminate exposure can paradoxically increase the number of cases of severe disease by shifting the burden of infection toward older individuals.
” 13 .
“ Smart Thinking , Lockdown and COVID-19 : Implications for Public Policy ” by Morris Altman .
Journal of Behavioral Economics for Policy , 2020 .
“ The response to COVID-19 has been overwhelmingly to lockdown much of the world ’ s economies in order to minimize death rates as well as the immediate negative effects of COVID-19 .
I argue that such policy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ policy externalities , assumes death rate calculations are appropriately accurate and , and as well , assumes focusing on direct Covid-19 effects to maximize human welfare is appropriate .
As a result of this approach current policy can be misdirected and with highly negative effects on human welfare .
Moreover , such policies can inadvertently result in not minimizing death rates ( incorporating externalities ) at all , especially in the long run .
Such misdirected and sub-optimal policy is a product of policy makers using inappropriate mental models which are lacking in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ failure to take a more comprehensive macro perspective to address the virus , using bad heuristics or decision-making tools , relatedly not recognizing the differential effects of the virus , and adopting herding strategy ( follow-the-leader ) when developing policy .
Improving the decision-making environment , inclusive of providing more comprehensive governance and improving mental models could have lockdowns throughout the world thus yielding much higher levels of human welfare.
” 14 .
“ SARS-CoV-2 waves in Europe : A 2-stratum SEIRS model solution ” by Levan Djaparidze and Federico Lois .
MedRxiv @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ We found that 180-day of mandatory isolations to healthy < 60 ( i.e .
schools and workplaces closed ) produces more final deaths if the vaccination date is later than ( Madrid : Feb 23 2021 ; Catalonia : Dec 28 2020 ; Paris : Jan 14 2021 ; London : Jan 22 2021 ) .
We also modeled how average isolation levels change the probability of getting infected for a single individual that isolates differently than average .
That led us to realize disease damages to third parties due to virus @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that an individual has the right to avoid isolation during epidemics ( SARS-CoV-2 or any other ) .
” 15 .
“ Did Lockdown Work ?
An Economist ’ s Cross-Country Comparison ” by Christian Bjørnskov .
SSRN working paper , August 2 , 2020 .
“ The lockdowns in most Western countries have thrown the world into the most severe recession since World War II and the most rapidly developing recession ever seen in mature market economies .
They have also caused an erosion of fundamental rights and the separation of powers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as both democratic and autocratic regimes have misused their emergency powers and ignored constitutional limits to policy-making ( Bjørnskov and Voigt , 2020 ) .
It is therefore important to evaluate whether and to which extent the lockdowns have worked as officially intended : to suppress the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus and prevent deaths associated with it .
Comparing weekly mortality in 24 European countries , the findings in this paper suggest that more severe lockdown policies have not been associated with lower mortality .
In other words , the lockdowns have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Four Stylized Facts about COVID-19 ” ( alt-link ) by Andrew Atkeson , Karen Kopecky , and Tao Zha .
NBER working paper 27719 , August 2020 .
“ One of the central policy questions regarding the COVID-19 pandemic is the question of which non-pharmeceutical interventions governments might use to influence the transmission of the disease .
Our ability to identify empirically which NPI ’ s have what impact on disease transmission depends on there being enough independent variation in both NPI ’ s and disease transmission across locations as well as our @ @ @ @ @ @ @ observed and unobserved factors that might be influencing disease transmission .
The facts that we document in this paper cast doubt on this premise… .
The existing literature has concluded that NPI policy and social distancing have been essential to reducing the spread of COVID-19 and the number of deaths due to this deadly pandemic .
The stylized facts established in this paper challenge this conclusion.
” 17 .
“ How does Belarus have one of the lowest death rates in Europe ?
” by Kata Karáth .
British Medical Journal , September @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s beleaguered government remains unfazed by covid-19 .
President Aleksander Lukashenko , who has been in power since 1994 , has flatly denied the seriousness of the pandemic , refusing to impose a lockdown , close schools , or cancel mass events like the Belarusian football league or the Victory Day parade .
Yet the country ’ s death rate is among the lowest in Europe—just over 700 in a population of 9.5 million with over 73 000 confirmed cases.
” 18 .
“ Association between living with children and outcomes from COVID-19 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ million adults in England ” by Harriet Forbes , Caroline E Morton , Seb Bacon et al.
, by MedRxiv , November 2 , 2020 .
“ Among 9,157,814 adults ≤65 years , living with children 0-11 years was not associated with increased risks of recorded SARS-CoV-2 infection , COVID-19 related hospital or ICU admission but was associated with reduced risk of COVID-19 death ( HR 0.75 , 95 % CI 0.62-0.92 ) .
Living with children aged 12-18 years was associated with a small increased risk of recorded SARS-CoV-2 infection ( HR @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , but not associated with other COVID-19 outcomes .
Living with children of any age was also associated with lower risk of dying from non-COVID-19 causes .
Among 2,567,671 adults > 65 years there was no association between living with children and outcomes related to SARS-CoV-2 .
We observed no consistent changes in risk following school closure.
” 19 .
“ Exploring inter-country coronavirus mortality “ By Trevor Nell , Ian McGorian , Nick Hudson .
Pandata , July 7 , 2020 .
“ For each country put forward as an example , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ an attendant single cause explanation , there are a host of countries that fail the expectation .
We set out to model the disease with every expectation of failure .
In choosing variables it was obvious from the outset that there would be contradictory outcomes in the real world .
But there were certain variables that appeared to be reliable markers as they had surfaced in much of the media and pre-print papers .
These included age , co-morbidity prevalence and the seemingly light population mortality rates in poorer countries than that in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ developing nations—a clutch of countries in equatorial Latin America—have seen lighter overall population mortality than the developed world .
Our aim therefore was not to develop the final answer , rather to seek common cause variables that would go some way to providing an explanation and stimulating discussion .
There are some very obvious outliers in this theory , not the least of these being Japan .
We test and find wanting the popular notions that lockdowns with their attendant social distancing and various other NPIs confer protection.
” 20 .
“ Covid-19 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Nations Facing Limited Margins of Adaptation ” by Quentin De Larochelambert , Andy Marc , Juliana Antero , Eric Le Bourg , and Jean-François Toussaint .
Frontiers in Public Health , 19 November 2020 .
“ Higher Covid death rates are observed in the [ 25/65° ] latitude and in the [ −35/−125° ] longitude ranges .
The national criteria most associated with death rate are life expectancy and its slowdown , public health context ( metabolic and non-communicable diseases ( NCD ) burden vs. infectious diseases prevalence ) , economy ( growth @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and environment ( temperature , ultra-violet index ) .
Stringency of the measures settled to fight pandemia , including lockdown , did not appear to be linked with death rate .
Countries that already experienced a stagnation or regression of life expectancy , with high income and NCD rates , had the highest price to pay .
This burden was not alleviated by more stringent public decisions .
Inherent factors have predetermined the Covid-19 mortality : understanding them may improve prevention strategies by increasing population resilience through better physical fitness and immunity.
” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Coronavirus Restrictions ” by Adam McCann .
WalletHub , Oct 6 , 2020 .
This study assesses and ranks stringencies in the United States by states .
The results are plotted against deaths per capita and unemployment .
The graphics reveal no relationship in stringency level as it relates to the death rates , but finds a clear relationship between stringency and unemployment .
22 .
The Mystery of Taiwan : Commentary on the Lancet Study of Taiwan and New Zealand , by Amelia Janaskie .
American Institute for Economic Research , November @ @ @ @ @ @ @ case reveals something extraordinary about pandemic response .
As much as public-health authorities imagine that the trajectory of a new virus can be influenced or even controlled by policies and responses , the current and past experiences of coronavirus illustrate a different point .
The severity of a new virus might have far more to do with endogenous factors within a population rather than the political response .
According to the lockdown narrative , Taiwan did almost everything ‘ wrong ’ but generated what might in fact be the best results in terms @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the world.
” 23 .
“ Predicting the Trajectory of Any COVID19 Epidemic From the Best Straight Line ” by Michael Levitt , Andrea Scaiewicz , Francesco Zonta .
MedRxiv , Pre-print , June 30 , 2020 .
“ Comparison of locations with over 50 deaths shows all outbreaks have a common feature : H ( t ) defined as loge ( X ( t ) /X ( t-1 ) ) decreases linearly on a log scale , where X ( t ) is the total number of Cases or Deaths on day @ @ @ @ @ @ @ loge ) .
The downward slopes vary by about a factor of three with time constants ( 1/slope ) of between 1 and 3 weeks ; this suggests it may be possible to predict when an outbreak will end .
Is it possible to go beyond this and perform early prediction of the outcome in terms of the eventual plateau number of total confirmed cases or deaths ?
We test this hypothesis by showing that the trajectory of cases or deaths in any outbreak can be converted into a straight line .
Specifically @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ( N/X ( t ) ) , is a straight line for the correct plateau value N , which is determined by a new method , Best-Line Fitting ( BLF ) .
BLF involves a straight-line facilitation extrapolation needed for prediction ; it is blindingly fast and amenable to optimization .
We find that in some locations that entire trajectory can be predicted early , whereas others take longer to follow this simple functional form.
” 24 .
“ Government mandated lockdowns do not reduce Covid-19 deaths : implications for evaluating the stringent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
New Zealand Economic Papers , August 25 , 2020 .
“ The New Zealand policy response to Coronavirus was the most stringent in the world during the Level 4 lockdown .
Up to 10 billion dollars of output ( ≈3.3 % of GDP ) was lost in moving to Level 4 rather than staying at Level 2 , according to Treasury calculations .
For lockdown to be optimal requires large health benefits to offset this output loss .
Forecast deaths from epidemiological models are not valid counterfactuals , due to poor identification @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , based on variation amongst United States counties , over one-fifth of which just had social distancing rather than lockdown .
Political drivers of lockdown provide identification .
Lockdowns do not reduce Covid-19 deaths .
This pattern is visible on each date that key lockdown decisions were made in New Zealand .
The apparent ineffectiveness of lockdowns suggests that New Zealand suffered large economic costs for little benefit in terms of lives saved.
” ( TLB ) published this article from the American Institute for Economic Research ( AIER ) with our deep @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ( TLB ) family .

Lockdowns Do Not Control The Coronavirus: The Evidence
by AIER Staff
The use of universal lockdowns in the event of the appearance of a new pathogen has no precedent. It has been a science experiment in real time, with most of the human population used as lab rats. The costs are legion.
The question is whether lockdowns worked to control the virus in a way that is scientifically verifiable. Based on the following studies, the answer is no and for a variety of reasons: bad data, no correlations, no causal demonstration, anomalous exceptions, and so on. There is no relationship between lockdowns (or whatever else people want to call them to mask their true nature) and virus control.
Perhaps this is a shocking revelation, given that universal social and economic controls are becoming the new orthodoxy. In a saner world, the burden of proof really should belong to the lockdowners, since it is they who overthrew 100 years of public-health wisdom and replaced it with an untested, top-down imposition on freedom and human rights. They never accepted that burden. They took it as axiomatic that a virus could be intimidated and frightened by credentials, edicts, speeches, and masked gendarmes.
The pro-lockdown evidence is shockingly thin, and based largely on comparing real-world outcomes against dire computer-generated forecasts derived from empirically untested models, and then merely positing that stringencies and “nonpharmaceutical interventions” account for the difference between the fictionalized vs. the real outcome. The anti-lockdown studies, on the other hand, are evidence-based, robust, and thorough, grappling with the data we have (with all its flaws) and looking at the results in light of controls on the population.
Much of the following list has been put together by data engineer Ivor Cummins, who has waged a year-long educational effort to upend intellectual support for lockdowns. AIER has added its own and the summaries. The upshot is that the virus is going to do as viruses do, same as always in the history of infectious disease. We have extremely limited control over them, and that which we do have is bound up with time and place. Fear, panic, and coercion are not ideal strategies for managing viruses. Intelligence and medical therapeutics fare much better.
(These studies are focused only on lockdown and their relationship to virus control. They do not get into the myriad associated issues that have vexed the world such as mask mandates, PCR-testing issues, death misclassification problem, or any particular issues associated with travel restrictions, restaurant closures, and hundreds of other particulars about which whole libraries will be written in the future.)
1. “A country level analysis measuring the impact of government actions, country preparedness and socioeconomic factors on COVID-19 mortality and related health outcomes” by Rabail Chaudhry, George Dranitsaris, Talha Mubashir, Justyna Bartoszko, Sheila Riazi. EClinicalMedicine 25 (2020) 100464. “[F]ull lockdowns and wide-spread COVID-19 testing were not associated with reductions in the number of critical cases or overall mortality.”
2. “Was Germany’s Corona Lockdown Necessary?” by Christof Kuhbandner, Stefan Homburg, Harald Walach, Stefan Hockertz. Advance: Sage Preprint, June 23, 2020. “Official data from Germany’s RKI agency suggest strongly that the spread of the coronavirus in Germany receded autonomously, before any interventions became effective. Several reasons for such an autonomous decline have been suggested. One is that differences in host susceptibility and behavior can result in herd immunity at a relatively low prevalence level. Accounting for individual variation in susceptibility or exposure to the coronavirus yields a maximum of 17% to 20% of the population that needs to be infected to reach herd immunity, an estimate that is empirically supported by the cohort of the Diamond Princess cruise ship. Another reason is that seasonality may also play an important role in dissipation.”
3. “Estimation of the current development of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Germany” by Matthias an der Heiden, Osamah Hamouda. Robert Koch-Institut, April 22, 2020. “In general, however, not all infected people develop symptoms, not all those who develop symptoms go to a doctor’s office, not all who go to the doctor are tested and not all who test positive are also recorded in a data collection system. In addition, there is a certain amount of time between all these individual steps, so that no survey system, no matter how good, can make a statement about the current infection process without additional assumptions and calculations.”
4. Did COVID-19 infections decline before UK lockdown? by Simon N. Wood. Cornell University pre-print, August 8, 2020. “A Bayesian inverse problem approach applied to UK data on COVID-19 deaths and the disease duration distribution suggests that infections were in decline before full UK lockdown (24 March 2020), and that infections in Sweden started to decline only a day or two later. An analysis of UK data using the model of Flaxman et al. (2020, Nature 584) gives the same result under relaxation of its prior assumptions on R.”
5. “Comment on Flaxman et al. (2020): The illusory effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in Europe” by Stefan Homburg and Christof Kuhbandner. June 17, 2020. Advance, Sage Pre-Print. “In a recent article, Flaxman et al. allege that non-pharmaceutical interventions imposed by 11 European countries saved millions of lives. We show that their methods involve circular reasoning. The purported effects are pure artefacts, which contradict the data. Moreover, we demonstrate that the United Kingdom’s lockdown was both superfluous and ineffective.”
6. Professor Ben Israel’s Analysis of virus transmission. April 16, 2020. “Some may claim that the decline in the number of additional patients every day is a result of the tight lockdown imposed by the government and health authorities. Examining the data of different countries around the world casts a heavy question mark on the above statement. It turns out that a similar pattern – rapid increase in infections that reaches a peak in the sixth week and declines from the eighth week – is common to all countries in which the disease was discovered, regardless of their response policies: some imposed a severe and immediate lockdown that included not only ‘social distancing’ and banning crowding, but also shutout of economy (like Israel); some ‘ignored’ the infection and continued almost a normal life (such as Taiwan, Korea or Sweden), and some initially adopted a lenient policy but soon reversed to a complete lockdown (such as Italy or the State of New York). Nonetheless, the data shows similar time constants amongst all these countries in regard to the initial rapid growth and the decline of the disease.”
7. “Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19 in Europe: a quasi-experimental study” by Paul Raymond Hunter, Felipe Colon-Gonzalez, Julii Suzanne Brainard, Steve Rushton. MedRxiv Pre-print May 1, 2020. “The current epidemic of COVID-19 is unparalleled in recent history as are the social distancing interventions that have led to a significant halt on the economic and social life of so many countries. However, there is very little empirical evidence about which social distancing measures have the most impact… From both sets of modelling, we found that closure of education facilities, prohibiting mass gatherings and closure of some non-essential businesses were associated with reduced incidence whereas stay at home orders and closure of all non-businesses was not associated with any independent additional impact.”
8. “Full lockdown policies in Western Europe countries have no evident impacts on the COVID-19 epidemic” by Thomas Meunier. MedRxiv Pre-print May 1, 2020. “This phenomenological study assesses the impacts of full lockdown strategies applied in Italy, France, Spain and United Kingdom, on the slowdown of the 2020 COVID-19 outbreak. Comparing the trajectory of the epidemic before and after the lockdown, we find no evidence of any discontinuity in the growth rate, doubling time, and reproduction number trends. Extrapolating pre-lockdown growth rate trends, we provide estimates of the death toll in the absence of any lockdown policies, and show that these strategies might not have saved any life in western Europe. We also show that neighboring countries applying less restrictive social distancing measures (as opposed to police-enforced home containment) experience a very similar time evolution of the epidemic.”
9. “Trajectory of COVID-19 epidemic in Europe” by Marco Colombo, Joseph Mellor, Helen M Colhoun, M. Gabriela M. Gomes, Paul M McKeigue. MedRxiv Pre-print. Posted September 28, 2020. “The classic Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model formulated by Kermack and McKendrick assumes that all individuals in the population are equally susceptible to infection. From fitting such a model to the trajectory of mortality from COVID-19 in 11 European countries up to 4 May 2020 Flaxman et al. concluded that ‘major non-pharmaceutical interventions — and lockdowns in particular — have had a large effect on reducing transmission’. We show that relaxing the assumption of homogeneity to allow for individual variation in susceptibility or connectivity gives a model that has better fit to the data and more accurate 14-day forward prediction of mortality. Allowing for heterogeneity reduces the estimate of ‘counterfactual’ deaths that would have occurred if there had been no interventions from 3.2 million to 262,000, implying that most of the slowing and reversal of COVID-19 mortality is explained by the build-up of herd immunity. The estimate of the herd immunity threshold depends on the value specified for the infection fatality ratio (IFR): a value of 0.3% for the IFR gives 15% for the average herd immunity threshold.”
10. “Effect of school closures on mortality from coronavirus disease 2019: old and new predictions” by Ken Rice, Ben Wynne, Victoria Martin, Graeme J Ackland. British Medical Journal, September 15, 2020. “The findings of this study suggest that prompt interventions were shown to be highly effective at reducing peak demand for intensive care unit (ICU) beds but also prolong the epidemic, in some cases resulting in more deaths long term. This happens because covid-19 related mortality is highly skewed towards older age groups. In the absence of an effective vaccination programme, none of the proposed mitigation strategies in the UK would reduce the predicted total number of deaths below 200 000.”
11. “Modeling social distancing strategies to prevent SARS-CoV2 spread in Israel- A Cost-effectiveness analysis” by Amir Shlomai, Ari Leshno, Ella H Sklan, Moshe Leshno. MedRxiv Pre-Print. September 20, 2020. “A nationwide lockdown is expected to save on average 274 (median 124, interquartile range (IQR): 71-221) lives compared to the ‘testing, tracing, and isolation’ approach. However, the ICER will be on average $45,104,156 (median $ 49.6 million, IQR: 22.7-220.1) to prevent one case of death. Conclusions: A national lockdown has a moderate advantage in saving lives with tremendous costs and possible overwhelming economic effects. These findings should assist decision-makers in dealing with additional waves of this pandemic.”
12. Too Little of a Good Thing A Paradox of Moderate Infection Control, by Ted Cohen and Marc Lipsitch. Epidemiology. 2008 Jul; 19(4): 588–589. “The link between limiting pathogen exposure and improving public health is not always so straightforward. Reducing the risk that each member of a community will be exposed to a pathogen has the attendant effect of increasing the average age at which infections occur. For pathogens that inflict greater morbidity at older ages, interventions that reduce but do not eliminate exposure can paradoxically increase the number of cases of severe disease by shifting the burden of infection toward older individuals.”
13. “Smart Thinking, Lockdown and COVID-19: Implications for Public Policy” by Morris Altman. Journal of Behavioral Economics for Policy, 2020. “The response to COVID-19 has been overwhelmingly to lockdown much of the world’s economies in order to minimize death rates as well as the immediate negative effects of COVID-19. I argue that such policy is too often de-contextualized as it ignores policy externalities, assumes death rate calculations are appropriately accurate and, and as well, assumes focusing on direct Covid-19 effects to maximize human welfare is appropriate. As a result of this approach current policy can be misdirected and with highly negative effects on human welfare. Moreover, such policies can inadvertently result in not minimizing death rates (incorporating externalities) at all, especially in the long run. Such misdirected and sub-optimal policy is a product of policy makers using inappropriate mental models which are lacking in a number of key areas; the failure to take a more comprehensive macro perspective to address the virus, using bad heuristics or decision-making tools, relatedly not recognizing the differential effects of the virus, and adopting herding strategy (follow-the-leader) when developing policy. Improving the decision-making environment, inclusive of providing more comprehensive governance and improving mental models could have lockdowns throughout the world thus yielding much higher levels of human welfare.”
14. “SARS-CoV-2 waves in Europe: A 2-stratum SEIRS model solution” by Levan Djaparidze and Federico Lois. MedRxiv pre-print, October 23, 2020. “We found that 180-day of mandatory isolations to healthy <60 (i.e. schools and workplaces closed) produces more final deaths if the vaccination date is later than (Madrid: Feb 23 2021; Catalonia: Dec 28 2020; Paris: Jan 14 2021; London: Jan 22 2021). We also modeled how average isolation levels change the probability of getting infected for a single individual that isolates differently than average. That led us to realize disease damages to third parties due to virus spreading can be calculated and to postulate that an individual has the right to avoid isolation during epidemics (SARS-CoV-2 or any other).”
15. “Did Lockdown Work? An Economist’s Cross-Country Comparison” by Christian Bjørnskov. SSRN working paper, August 2, 2020. “The lockdowns in most Western countries have thrown the world into the most severe recession since World War II and the most rapidly developing recession ever seen in mature market economies. They have also caused an erosion of fundamental rights and the separation of powers in a large part of the world as both democratic and autocratic regimes have misused their emergency powers and ignored constitutional limits to policy-making (Bjørnskov and Voigt, 2020). It is therefore important to evaluate whether and to which extent the lockdowns have worked as officially intended: to suppress the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus and prevent deaths associated with it. Comparing weekly mortality in 24 European countries, the findings in this paper suggest that more severe lockdown policies have not been associated with lower mortality. In other words, the lockdowns have not worked as intended.”
16.”Four Stylized Facts about COVID-19” (alt-link) by Andrew Atkeson, Karen Kopecky, and Tao Zha. NBER working paper 27719, August 2020. “One of the central policy questions regarding the COVID-19 pandemic is the question of which non-pharmeceutical interventions governments might use to influence the transmission of the disease. Our ability to identify empirically which NPI’s have what impact on disease transmission depends on there being enough independent variation in both NPI’s and disease transmission across locations as well as our having robust procedures for controlling for other observed and unobserved factors that might be influencing disease transmission. The facts that we document in this paper cast doubt on this premise…. The existing literature has concluded that NPI policy and social distancing have been essential to reducing the spread of COVID-19 and the number of deaths due to this deadly pandemic. The stylized facts established in this paper challenge this conclusion.”
17. “How does Belarus have one of the lowest death rates in Europe?” by Kata Karáth. British Medical Journal, September 15, 2020. “Belarus’s beleaguered government remains unfazed by covid-19. President Aleksander Lukashenko, who has been in power since 1994, has flatly denied the seriousness of the pandemic, refusing to impose a lockdown, close schools, or cancel mass events like the Belarusian football league or the Victory Day parade. Yet the country’s death rate is among the lowest in Europe—just over 700 in a population of 9.5 million with over 73 000 confirmed cases.”
18. “Association between living with children and outcomes from COVID-19: an OpenSAFELY cohort study of 12 million adults in England” by Harriet Forbes, Caroline E Morton, Seb Bacon et al., by MedRxiv, November 2, 2020. “Among 9,157,814 adults ≤65 years, living with children 0-11 years was not associated with increased risks of recorded SARS-CoV-2 infection, COVID-19 related hospital or ICU admission but was associated with reduced risk of COVID-19 death (HR 0.75, 95%CI 0.62-0.92). Living with children aged 12-18 years was associated with a small increased risk of recorded SARS-CoV-2 infection (HR 1.08, 95%CI 1.03-1.13), but not associated with other COVID-19 outcomes. Living with children of any age was also associated with lower risk of dying from non-COVID-19 causes. Among 2,567,671 adults >65 years there was no association between living with children and outcomes related to SARS-CoV-2. We observed no consistent changes in risk following school closure.”
19. “Exploring inter-country coronavirus mortality“ By Trevor Nell, Ian McGorian, Nick Hudson. Pandata, July 7, 2020. “For each country put forward as an example, usually in some pairwise comparison and with an attendant single cause explanation, there are a host of countries that fail the expectation. We set out to model the disease with every expectation of failure. In choosing variables it was obvious from the outset that there would be contradictory outcomes in the real world. But there were certain variables that appeared to be reliable markers as they had surfaced in much of the media and pre-print papers. These included age, co-morbidity prevalence and the seemingly light population mortality rates in poorer countries than that in richer countries. Even the worst among developing nations—a clutch of countries in equatorial Latin America—have seen lighter overall population mortality than the developed world. Our aim therefore was not to develop the final answer, rather to seek common cause variables that would go some way to providing an explanation and stimulating discussion. There are some very obvious outliers in this theory, not the least of these being Japan. We test and find wanting the popular notions that lockdowns with their attendant social distancing and various other NPIs confer protection.”
20. “Covid-19 Mortality: A Matter of Vulnerability Among Nations Facing Limited Margins of Adaptation” by Quentin De Larochelambert, Andy Marc, Juliana Antero, Eric Le Bourg, and Jean-François Toussaint. Frontiers in Public Health, 19 November 2020. “Higher Covid death rates are observed in the [25/65°] latitude and in the [−35/−125°] longitude ranges. The national criteria most associated with death rate are life expectancy and its slowdown, public health context (metabolic and non-communicable diseases (NCD) burden vs. infectious diseases prevalence), economy (growth national product, financial support), and environment (temperature, ultra-violet index). Stringency of the measures settled to fight pandemia, including lockdown, did not appear to be linked with death rate. Countries that already experienced a stagnation or regression of life expectancy, with high income and NCD rates, had the highest price to pay. This burden was not alleviated by more stringent public decisions. Inherent factors have predetermined the Covid-19 mortality: understanding them may improve prevention strategies by increasing population resilience through better physical fitness and immunity.”
21. “States with the Fewest Coronavirus Restrictions” by Adam McCann. WalletHub, Oct 6, 2020. This study assesses and ranks stringencies in the United States by states. The results are plotted against deaths per capita and unemployment. The graphics reveal no relationship in stringency level as it relates to the death rates, but finds a clear relationship between stringency and unemployment.
22. The Mystery of Taiwan: Commentary on the Lancet Study of Taiwan and New Zealand, by Amelia Janaskie. American Institute for Economic Research, November 2, 2020. “The Taiwanese case reveals something extraordinary about pandemic response. As much as public-health authorities imagine that the trajectory of a new virus can be influenced or even controlled by policies and responses, the current and past experiences of coronavirus illustrate a different point. The severity of a new virus might have far more to do with endogenous factors within a population rather than the political response. According to the lockdown narrative, Taiwan did almost everything ‘wrong’ but generated what might in fact be the best results in terms of public health of any country in the world.”
23. “Predicting the Trajectory of Any COVID19 Epidemic From the Best Straight Line” by Michael Levitt, Andrea Scaiewicz, Francesco Zonta. MedRxiv, Pre-print, June 30, 2020. “Comparison of locations with over 50 deaths shows all outbreaks have a common feature: H(t) defined as loge(X(t)/X(t-1)) decreases linearly on a log scale, where X(t) is the total number of Cases or Deaths on day, t (we use ln for loge). The downward slopes vary by about a factor of three with time constants (1/slope) of between 1 and 3 weeks; this suggests it may be possible to predict when an outbreak will end. Is it possible to go beyond this and perform early prediction of the outcome in terms of the eventual plateau number of total confirmed cases or deaths? We test this hypothesis by showing that the trajectory of cases or deaths in any outbreak can be converted into a straight line. Specifically Y(t)≡−ln(ln(N/X(t)),is a straight line for the correct plateau value N, which is determined by a new method, Best-Line Fitting (BLF). BLF involves a straight-line facilitation extrapolation needed for prediction; it is blindingly fast and amenable to optimization. We find that in some locations that entire trajectory can be predicted early, whereas others take longer to follow this simple functional form.”
24. “Government mandated lockdowns do not reduce Covid-19 deaths: implications for evaluating the stringent New Zealand response” by John Gibson. New Zealand Economic Papers, August 25, 2020. “The New Zealand policy response to Coronavirus was the most stringent in the world during the Level 4 lockdown. Up to 10 billion dollars of output (≈3.3% of GDP) was lost in moving to Level 4 rather than staying at Level 2, according to Treasury calculations. For lockdown to be optimal requires large health benefits to offset this output loss. Forecast deaths from epidemiological models are not valid counterfactuals, due to poor identification. Instead, I use empirical data, based on variation amongst United States counties, over one-fifth of which just had social distancing rather than lockdown. Political drivers of lockdown provide identification. Lockdowns do not reduce Covid-19 deaths. This pattern is visible on each date that key lockdown decisions were made in New Zealand. The apparent ineffectiveness of lockdowns suggests that New Zealand suffered large economic costs for little benefit in terms of lives saved.”
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(TLB) published this article from the American Institute for Economic Research (AIER) with our deep appreciation for sharing this perspective with our (TLB) family.
Header featured image credit/ Joan Wong/The Atlantic
About AIER
Founded in 1933, the American Institute for Economic Research (AIER) is one of the oldest and most respected nonpartisan economic research and advocacy organizations in the country. With a global reach and influence, AIER is dedicated to developing and promoting the ideas of pure freedom and private governance by combining advanced economic research with accessible media outreach and educational programming to cultivate a better, broader understanding of the fundamental principles that enable peace and prosperity around the world.
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The Liberty Beacon Project is now expanding at a near exponential rate, and for this we are grateful and excited! But we must also be practical. For 7 years we have not asked for any donations, and have built this project with our own funds as we grew. We are now experiencing ever increasing growing pains due to the large number of websites and projects we represent. So we have just installed donation buttons on our websites and ask that you consider this when you visit them. Nothing is too small. We thank you for all your support and your considerations … (TLB)
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thelibertybeacon--2020-12-22--3,150 People Experience ‘Health Impact Events’ After COVID Vaccination

If getting the COVID-19 vaccine means that you ’ ll be unable to continue going to work or you might have trouble doing even basic daily activities , would you still opt to receive it ?
As of December 18 , 3,150 people who ’ ve been vaccinated with the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine have already reported experiencing “ health impact events.
” According to an article by The Epoch Times : These reports came in via the app V-Safe , which allows users to send “ check-ins ” on their health status to the CDC .
Allergic reactions or anaphylaxis , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the effects are so severe to require hospitalization , as is the case with a worker from the Bartlett Regional Hospital , who was hospitalized for at least two nights after suffering from “ increased heartbeat , shortness of breath , and skin rash and redness.
” In an Illinois hospital , four workers suffered adverse reactions like tingling and an elevated heart rate , prompting them to temporarily halt vaccinations .
Speaking to reporters , Peter Marks , Ph.D. , director of the Food and Drug Administration ’ s Center for Biologics @ @ @ @ @ @ @ We ’ ll be looking at all of the data we can from each of these reactions to sort out exactly what happened .
And we ’ ll also be looking to try to understand which components of the vaccine might be helping to produce them.
” The Liberty Beacon Project is now expanding at a near exponential rate , and for this we are grateful and excited !
But we must also be practical .
For 7 years we have not asked for any donations , and have built this project with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ We are now experiencing ever increasing growing pains due to the large number of websites and projects we represent .
So we have just installed donation buttons on our websites and ask that you consider this when you visit them .
Nothing is too small .
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3,150 People Experience ‘Health Impact Events’ After COVID Vaccination
Analysis by: Mercola.com
If getting the COVID-19 vaccine means that you’ll be unable to continue going to work or you might have trouble doing even basic daily activities, would you still opt to receive it?
As of December 18, 3,150 people who’ve been vaccinated with the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine have already reported experiencing “health impact events.” According to an article by The Epoch Times:
“Those who are experiencing these ‘events’ are ‘unable to perform normal daily activities, unable to work,’ or “required care from [a] doctor or health care professional.”
These reports came in via the app V-Safe, which allows users to send “check-ins” on their health status to the CDC.
Allergic reactions or anaphylaxis, is a common side effect, and the effects are so severe to require hospitalization, as is the case with a worker from the Bartlett Regional Hospital, who was hospitalized for at least two nights after suffering from “increased heartbeat, shortness of breath, and skin rash and redness.”
In an Illinois hospital, four workers suffered adverse reactions like tingling and an elevated heart rate, prompting them to temporarily halt vaccinations.
Speaking to reporters, Peter Marks, Ph.D., director of the Food and Drug Administration’s Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research, said:
“We’ll be looking at all of the data we can from each of these reactions to sort out exactly what happened. And we’ll also be looking to try to understand which components of the vaccine might be helping to produce them.”
Sources:
The article 3,150 People Experience ‘Health Impact Events’ After COVID Vaccination was originally created and published by MERCOLA and is republished here with permission and attribution to author and website, mercola.com. (© Dr. Joseph Mercola) TLB recommends you visit MERCOLA for more great articles and information.
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The Liberty Beacon Project is now expanding at a near exponential rate, and for this we are grateful and excited! But we must also be practical. For 7 years we have not asked for any donations, and have built this project with our own funds as we grew. We are now experiencing ever increasing growing pains due to the large number of websites and projects we represent. So we have just installed donation buttons on our websites and ask that you consider this when you visit them. Nothing is too small. We thank you for all your support and your considerations … (TLB)
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Comment Policy: As a privately owned web site, we reserve the right to remove comments that contain spam, advertising, vulgarity, threats of violence, racism, or personal/abusive attacks on other users. This also applies to trolling, the use of more than one alias, or just intentional mischief. Enforcement of this policy is at the discretion of this websites administrators. Repeat offenders may be blocked or permanently banned without prior warning.
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Disclaimer: TLB websites contain copyrighted material the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. We are making such material available to our readers under the provisions of “fair use” in an effort to advance a better understanding of political, health, economic and social issues. The material on this site is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving it for research and educational purposes. If you wish to use copyrighted material for purposes other than “fair use” you must request permission from the copyright owner.
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Disclaimer: The information and opinions shared are for informational purposes only including, but not limited to, text, graphics, images and other material are not intended as medical advice or instruction. Nothing mentioned is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment.


thelibertybeacon--2020-12-24--WHO Changes Definition of “Herd Immunity” to Eliminate Pre-COVID Consensus

WHO Changes Definition of “ Herd Immunity ” to Eliminate Pre-COVID Consensus The World Health Organization has changed the definition of “ herd immunity , ” eliminating the pre-COVID consensus that it could be achieved by allowing a virus to spread through a population , and insisting that herd immunity comes solely from vaccines .
The change occurred on a section of the WHO ’ s website entitled ‘ Coronavirus disease ( COVID-19 ) : Serology , antibodies and immunity ’ .
The WHO ’ s original definition ( archived here ) states that herd immunity “ happens when a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ immunity developed through previous infection .
This means that even people who haven ’ t been infected , or in whom an infection hasn ’ t triggered an immune response , they are protected because people around them who are immune can act as buffers between them and an infected person.
” However , the WHO ’ s updated version is even more extreme , insisting that herd immunity can only be achieved by mass vaccination programs .
“ ‘ Herd immunity ’ , also known as ‘ population immunity ’ , is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ which a population can be protected from a certain virus if a threshold of vaccination is reached , ” states the WHO website , adding , “ Herd immunity is achieved by protecting people from a virus , not by exposing them to it.
” “ ‘ Herd immunity ’ exists when a high percentage of the population is vaccinated , ” states the website , completely omitting the original meaning of “ herd immunity , ” which is when a population becomes immune to a virus by being exposed to it .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ immunity , ” the WHO is literally re-writing hundreds of years of scientific understanding as to what the term truly means in an apparent effort to silence any argument that herd immunity would have been a better approach to fighting COVID-19 than lockdowns and social distancing .
( TLB ) published this article from Summit News as compiled and commented on by Paul Joseph Watson In the age of mass Silicon Valley censorship It is crucial that we stay in touch .
I need you to sign up for my free newsletter here @ @ @ @ @ @ @ – a supercharged boost of clean energy without the comedown .
Also , I urgently need your financial support here .
The Liberty Beacon Project is now expanding at a near exponential rate , and for this we are grateful and excited !
But we must also be practical .
For 7 years we have not asked for any donations , and have built this project with our own funds as we grew .
We are now experiencing ever increasing growing pains due to the large number of websites and projects we represent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ buttons on our websites and ask that you consider this when you visit them .
Nothing is too small .
We thank you for all your support and your considerations … ( TLB ) Comment Policy : As a privately owned web site , we reserve the right to remove comments that contain spam , advertising , vulgarity , threats of violence , racism , or personal/abusive attacks on other users .
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Repeat offenders may be blocked or permanently banned without prior warning .
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We are making such material available to our readers under the provisions of “ fair use ” in an effort to advance a better understanding of political , health , economic and social issues .
The material on this site is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ you wish to use copyrighted material for purposes other than “ fair use ” you must request permission from the copyright owner .

WHO Changes Definition of “Herd Immunity” to Eliminate Pre-COVID Consensus
Asserts that herd immunity can only occur via vaccination.
Paul Joseph Watson
The World Health Organization has changed the definition of “herd immunity,” eliminating the pre-COVID consensus that it could be achieved by allowing a virus to spread through a population, and insisting that herd immunity comes solely from vaccines.
NurPhoto via Getty Images
The change occurred on a section of the WHO’s website entitled ‘Coronavirus disease (COVID-19): Serology, antibodies and immunity’.
The WHO’s original definition (archived here) states that herd immunity “happens when a population is immune either through vaccination or immunity developed through previous infection. This means that even people who haven’t been infected, or in whom an infection hasn’t triggered an immune response, they are protected because people around them who are immune can act as buffers between them and an infected person.”
The original definition fails to identify the pre-COVID consensus on what is meant by “herd immunity,” which is when a population becomes protected against a virus because enough people have been infected with it to create community immunity.
However, the WHO’s updated version is even more extreme, insisting that herd immunity can only be achieved by mass vaccination programs.
“‘Herd immunity’, also known as ‘population immunity’, is a concept used for vaccination, in which a population can be protected from a certain virus if a threshold of vaccination is reached,” states the WHO website, adding, “Herd immunity is achieved by protecting people from a virus, not by exposing them to it.”
“‘Herd immunity’ exists when a high percentage of the population is vaccinated,” states the website, completely omitting the original meaning of “herd immunity,” which is when a population becomes immune to a virus by being exposed to it.
By changing the definition of “herd immunity,” the WHO is literally re-writing hundreds of years of scientific understanding as to what the term truly means in an apparent effort to silence any argument that herd immunity would have been a better approach to fighting COVID-19 than lockdowns and social distancing.
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(TLB) published this article from Summit News as compiled and commented on by Paul Joseph Watson
Header featured image credit: Shutterstock
Emphasis was added by (TLB)
In the age of mass Silicon Valley censorship It is crucial that we stay in touch. I need you to sign up for my free newsletter here. Support my sponsor – Turbo Force – a supercharged boost of clean energy without the comedown. Also, I urgently need your financial support here.
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Stay tuned to …
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The Liberty Beacon Project is now expanding at a near exponential rate, and for this we are grateful and excited! But we must also be practical. For 7 years we have not asked for any donations, and have built this project with our own funds as we grew. We are now experiencing ever increasing growing pains due to the large number of websites and projects we represent. So we have just installed donation buttons on our websites and ask that you consider this when you visit them. Nothing is too small. We thank you for all your support and your considerations … (TLB)
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Comment Policy: As a privately owned web site, we reserve the right to remove comments that contain spam, advertising, vulgarity, threats of violence, racism, or personal/abusive attacks on other users. This also applies to trolling, the use of more than one alias, or just intentional mischief. Enforcement of this policy is at the discretion of this websites administrators. Repeat offenders may be blocked or permanently banned without prior warning.
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Disclaimer: TLB websites contain copyrighted material the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. We are making such material available to our readers under the provisions of “fair use” in an effort to advance a better understanding of political, health, economic and social issues. The material on this site is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving it for research and educational purposes. If you wish to use copyrighted material for purposes other than “fair use” you must request permission from the copyright owner.
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Disclaimer: The information and opinions shared are for informational purposes only including, but not limited to, text, graphics, images and other material are not intended as medical advice or instruction. Nothing mentioned is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment.