thelibertybeacon--2020-06-21--“Vaccines are Safe” – the neat trick that makes the unproven look proven

How vaccines are “ tested ” against an equally toxic placebo One wonders when so-called “ fact checkers ” are going to fact check the claims made by the proponents of vaccines .
A Google search on the safety of vaccines usually throws up entry after entry claiming how safe vaccines are and how vaccines have been thoroughly and rigorously tested for safety .
But have they really ?
The below comes from a freedom of Information request to the Australian government .
It highlights the neat trick used by the pharmaceutical industry to “ prove ” their vaccines are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ out that vaccines ARE safe but the fact is they have NOT been properly tested and the fact that the industry avoids such testing and uses spin to conceal the fact suggests strongly that they have something to hide and we need to know what it is .
The other claim often made is : the ” overwhelming ” , “ scientific ” evidence is that vaccines are safe .
But the letter reveals that the evidence is not as scientific as they would have you believe .
And , of course , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by simply lauding favorable data whilst ignoring , marginalising or disparaging the many scientific studies that say otherwise .
This is an effort aided and abetted by the pharmaceutical industry ’ s chums and proxies in government .
If you really want to dig in and discover just HOW MUCH this is true , a fascinating ebook that lays the whole thing out , with hundreds of links to scientific studies is here Here then is the FOI letter , with emphases added by us .
Click on this link to see it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ reply – which interestingly does not answer the ruddy question .
We constantly hear from health officials that “ vaccines are safe and effective ” .
But few people are aware of the fact that no vaccine has ever been tested against a true placebo for safety or effectiveness .
So the claim that vaccines are safe and effective is based on complete pseudoscience , not science as falsely claimed .
The double-blind placebo-controlled randomised clinical study is the gold standard of medicine .
Every drug must undergo these extensive long-term studies before @ @ @ @ @ @ @ medication ) .
Every drug that is EXCEPT vaccines !
Vaccine safety trials use placebo-controlled groups that are either injected with another vaccine or an “ active comparator ” solution containing the same minor ingredients as the vaccine ( eg .
aluminium – a proven neurotoxin when injected – and a host of other toxic additives ) , less only the antigen , so that the vaccine ‘ appears ’ safe – but only in comparison to the equally toxic placebo .
This is not a genuine placebo .
Placebos in real scientific @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is a waste of time ( or a fraud ) .
Yet such scientific fraud and systematic deception of the public is not only endorsed by medical regulators and health authorities , it is deliberately covered up and censored from the public by powerful vested interests including the pharmaceutical companies who manufacture vaccines , the medical establishment who approve , endorse and administer vaccines , the medical universities and journals reliant on funding from pharma , the media who profit from pharma advertising and governments whose vaccination policies they feel obligated to protect @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , even fewer doctors , know that vaccines have NEVER been properly safety tested .
As per the article below , this makes a mockery of the claims of vested interests that “ vaccines are safe ” .
So it ’ s actually health authorities – including Australia ’ s Health Department and medical regulator the Therapeutic Goods Administration ( TGA ) – that is deceiving the public with misleading information by falsely claiming that “ vaccines are safe ” .
They found that none of the current vaccines on the schedule have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ worse , there ’ s never been a trial of a vaccine against a genuine placebo…the toxic vaccines were only ever compared with an equally toxic comparator ( ie .
another vaccine or the vaccine less the antigen only ) , rather than against an inert saline solution .
Shockingly , such deliberate and blatant scientific fraud was not only permitted by medical regulators but fully endorsed as part of the licensure and mandating of vaccines on the schedule .
.. ” Contrary to commonly accepted dogma , vaccines are dangerous .
Vaccine @ @ @ @ @ @ @ — design “ safety ” studies to hide vaccine injury and death .
Rather than compare new vaccines to an inert placebo , researchers compare them to another vaccine , vaccines , or toxic vaccine ingredients , such as aluminum , which scientists routinely use to induce autoimmunity in laboratory rats .
The result of these experiments is known beforehand : at least 2 % of vaccine recipients in both the test group and the “ placebo ” group will experience serious adverse events .
Researchers write off the injuries as “ New @ @ @ @ @ @ @ vaccine or to the toxic “ placebo.
” I repeat for emphasis : Researchers intentionally injure , and sometimes kill , healthy children who would not have been injured or killed , had they been given a legitimate placebo .
The FDA licenses new vaccines fully aware that industry “ safety ” tests are nothing more than scientific treachery.
” ..
Learn more here about the hidden fraudulent practices and endemic corruption within the pharma-medical industrial complex ; No US Childhood Vaccines Were Placebo Tested : Why the Pharma/Government Complex Is Getting Desperate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that the Department of Health confirm that they are either aware of this suppressed fact or , if not aware , that the Department of Health will investigate this crucial health issue with the TGA forthwith .
The above feature is from UK Reloaded The Liberty Beacon Project is now expanding at a near exponential rate , and for this we are grateful and excited !
But we must also be practical .
For 7 years we have not asked for any donations , and have built this project with our own funds @ @ @ @ @ @ @ experiencing ever increasing growing pains due to the large number of websites and projects we represent .
So we have just installed donation buttons on our websites and ask that you consider this when you visit them .
Nothing is too small .
We thank you for all your support and your considerations … ( TLB )

How vaccines are “tested” against an equally toxic placebo
by Jon Davy
One wonders when so-called “fact checkers” are going to fact check the claims made by the proponents of vaccines. A Google search on the safety of vaccines usually throws up entry after entry claiming how safe vaccines are and how vaccines have been thoroughly and rigorously tested for safety. But have they really?
The below comes from a freedom of Information request to the Australian government. It highlights the neat trick used by the pharmaceutical industry to “prove” their vaccines are safe.
Now, it might turn out that vaccines ARE safe but the fact is they have NOT been properly tested and the fact that the industry avoids such testing and uses spin to conceal the fact suggests strongly that they have something to hide and we need to know what it is.
The other claim often made is: the ”overwhelming”, “scientific” evidence is that vaccines are safe. But the letter reveals that the evidence is not as scientific as they would have you believe.
And, of course, the apparency of scientific consensus is created by simply lauding favorable data whilst ignoring, marginalising or disparaging the many scientific studies that say otherwise. This is an effort aided and abetted by the pharmaceutical industry’s chums and proxies in government.
If you really want to dig in and discover just HOW MUCH this is true, a fascinating ebook that lays the whole thing out, with hundreds of links to scientific studies is here
Here then is the FOI letter, with emphases added by us. Click on this link to see it and the Australian Health Department’s reply – which interestingly does not answer the ruddy question.
Dear Department of Health,
We constantly hear from health officials that “vaccines are safe and effective”. But few people are aware of the fact that no vaccine has ever been tested against a true placebo for safety or effectiveness. So the claim that vaccines are safe and effective is based on complete pseudoscience, not science as falsely claimed.
The double-blind placebo-controlled randomised clinical study is the gold standard of medicine. Every drug must undergo these extensive long-term studies before being granted approval (even supposed life-saving medication). Every drug that is EXCEPT vaccines!
Vaccine safety trials use placebo-controlled groups that are either injected with another vaccine or an “active comparator” solution containing the same minor ingredients as the vaccine (eg. aluminium – a proven neurotoxin when injected – and a host of other toxic additives), less only the antigen, so that the vaccine ‘appears’ safe – but only in comparison to the equally toxic placebo. This is not a genuine placebo. Placebos in real scientific studies are inert. Otherwise the placebo is a waste of time (or a fraud).
Yet such scientific fraud and systematic deception of the public is not only endorsed by medical regulators and health authorities, it is deliberately covered up and censored from the public by powerful vested interests including the pharmaceutical companies who manufacture vaccines, the medical establishment who approve, endorse and administer vaccines, the medical universities and journals reliant on funding from pharma, the media who profit from pharma advertising and governments whose vaccination policies they feel obligated to protect – at all costs!
Few people, even fewer doctors, know that vaccines have NEVER been properly safety tested. As per the article below, this makes a mockery of the claims of vested interests that “vaccines are safe”.
So it’s actually health authorities – including Australia’s Health Department and medical regulator the Therapeutic Goods Administration (TGA) – that is deceiving the public with misleading information by falsely claiming that “vaccines are safe”.
No Placebo in Vaccine Safety Tests
They found that none of the current vaccines on the schedule have any meaningful pre-marketing safety data. And worse, there’s never been a trial of a vaccine against a genuine placebo…the toxic vaccines were only ever compared with an equally toxic comparator (ie. another vaccine or the vaccine less the antigen only), rather than against an inert saline solution. Shockingly, such deliberate and blatant scientific fraud was not only permitted by medical regulators but fully endorsed as part of the licensure and mandating of vaccines on the schedule.
..”Contrary to commonly accepted dogma, vaccines are dangerous. Vaccine researchers — fully aware of this fact — design “safety” studies to hide vaccine injury and death.
Rather than compare new vaccines to an inert placebo, researchers compare them to another vaccine, vaccines, or toxic vaccine ingredients, such as aluminum, which scientists routinely use to induce autoimmunity in laboratory rats. The result of these experiments is known beforehand: at least 2% of vaccine recipients in both the test group and the “placebo” group will experience serious adverse events. Researchers write off the injuries as “New Medical Events” unrelated to the test vaccine or to the toxic “placebo.”
I repeat for emphasis: Researchers intentionally injure, and sometimes kill, healthy children who would not have been injured or killed, had they been given a legitimate placebo. The FDA licenses new vaccines fully aware that industry “safety” tests are nothing more than scientific treachery.”..
Learn more here about the hidden fraudulent practices and endemic corruption within the pharma-medical industrial complex;
No US Childhood Vaccines Were Placebo Tested: Why the Pharma/Government Complex Is Getting Desperate To Shut Down The Web
I request that the Department of Health confirm that they are either aware of this suppressed fact or, if not aware, that the Department of Health will investigate this crucial health issue with the TGA forthwith.
Yours faithfully,
Phillip Hayes.
The above feature is from UK Reloaded
••••
The Liberty Beacon Project is now expanding at a near exponential rate, and for this we are grateful and excited! But we must also be practical. For 7 years we have not asked for any donations, and have built this project with our own funds as we grew. We are now experiencing ever increasing growing pains due to the large number of websites and projects we represent. So we have just installed donation buttons on our websites and ask that you consider this when you visit them. Nothing is too small. We thank you for all your support and your considerations … (TLB)
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Disclaimer: TLB websites contain copyrighted material the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. We are making such material available to our readers under the provisions of “fair use” in an effort to advance a better understanding of political, health, economic and social issues. The material on this site is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving it for research and educational purposes. If you wish to use copyrighted material for purposes other than “fair use” you must request permission from the copyright owner.
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thelibertybeacon--2020-06-21--Read John Bolton’s Full White House Exposé – PDF

( Zero Hedge ) … now that the PDF of John Bolton ’ s controversial tell-all book “ The Room Where It Happened ” has been leaked online , the neocon-warhawk may not see a penny… Interestingly , in his tweet yesterday , President Trump mentioned the “ leak ” : “ BIG COURT WIN against Bolton .
Obviously , with the book already given out and leaked to many people and the media , nothing the highly respected Judge could have done about stopping it… ” As Ben Garrison recent noted , in an interview Bolton stated that it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lie to the American people if national security is at stake .
And it always seems to be at stake for dominant men who want secrecy and power .
Bolton is a dangerous liar and his anti-Trump screed can not be trusted .
It ’ s time to slam the book shut on Bolton .
( TLB ) published this article from ZeroHedge as compiled by Tyler Durden More about Bolton from The Liberty Beacon : John Bolton : As Bad As It Gets It ’ s Time For John Bolton To Go @ @ @ @ @ @ @ War-monger !
How can this be ?
Trump Fires John Bolton After “ Disagreeing Strongly With His Suggestions ” The Liberty Beacon Project is now expanding at a near exponential rate , and for this we are grateful and excited !
But we must also be practical .
For 7 years we have not asked for any donations , and have built this project with our own funds as we grew .
We are now experiencing ever increasing growing pains due to the large number of websites and projects we represent .
So @ @ @ @ @ @ @ our websites and ask that you consider this when you visit them .
Nothing is too small .
We thank you for all your support and your considerations … ( TLB ) Comment Policy : As a privately owned web site , we reserve the right to remove comments that contain spam , advertising , vulgarity , threats of violence , racism , or personal/abusive attacks on other users .
This also applies to trolling , the use of more than one alias , or just intentional mischief .
Enforcement of this policy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ administrators .
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We are making such material available to our readers under the provisions of “ fair use ” in an effort to advance a better understanding of political , health , economic and social issues .
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Disclaimer : The information and opinions shared are for informational purposes only including , but not limited to , text , graphics , images and other material are not intended as medical advice or instruction .
Nothing mentioned is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice , diagnosis or treatment .

Read Here: John Bolton’s Full White House Exposé Leaked Online
After the judge’s comments yesterday about Bolton’s book, he was unlikely to see much profit from the book…
(Zero Hedge) … now that the PDF of John Bolton’s controversial tell-all book “The Room Where It Happened” has been leaked online, the neocon-warhawk may not see a penny…
Oh no!! The pdf of Bolton’s book got leaked and people can download it and read it on the phones or iPads! That would mean he doesn’t get a royalty!! Oh no! The Room Where It Happened – John Bolton.pdf – Google Drive https://t.co/K7XgcQ63qT — Ayelet Waldman (@ayeletw) June 21, 2020
Interestingly, in his tweet yesterday, President Trump mentioned the “leak”:
“BIG COURT WIN against Bolton. Obviously, with the book already given out and leaked to many people and the media, nothing the highly respected Judge could have done about stopping it…”
Enjoy.
As Ben Garrison recent noted, in an interview Bolton stated that it was OK for the government agencies to lie to the American people if national security is at stake. And it always seems to be at stake for dominant men who want secrecy and power. Bolton is a dangerous liar and his anti-Trump screed cannot be trusted.
It’s time to slam the book shut on Bolton.
*********
(TLB) published this article from ZeroHedge as compiled by Tyler Durden
Edited by (TLB)
More about Bolton from The Liberty Beacon:
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Stay tuned to …
••••
The Liberty Beacon Project is now expanding at a near exponential rate, and for this we are grateful and excited! But we must also be practical. For 7 years we have not asked for any donations, and have built this project with our own funds as we grew. We are now experiencing ever increasing growing pains due to the large number of websites and projects we represent. So we have just installed donation buttons on our websites and ask that you consider this when you visit them. Nothing is too small. We thank you for all your support and your considerations … (TLB)
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Comment Policy: As a privately owned web site, we reserve the right to remove comments that contain spam, advertising, vulgarity, threats of violence, racism, or personal/abusive attacks on other users. This also applies to trolling, the use of more than one alias, or just intentional mischief. Enforcement of this policy is at the discretion of this websites administrators. Repeat offenders may be blocked or permanently banned without prior warning.
••••
Disclaimer: TLB websites contain copyrighted material the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. We are making such material available to our readers under the provisions of “fair use” in an effort to advance a better understanding of political, health, economic and social issues. The material on this site is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving it for research and educational purposes. If you wish to use copyrighted material for purposes other than “fair use” you must request permission from the copyright owner.
••••
Disclaimer: The information and opinions shared are for informational purposes only including, but not limited to, text, graphics, images and other material are not intended as medical advice or instruction. Nothing mentioned is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment.


thelibertybeacon--2020-06-21--REFORM POLICE: RECOMMIT TO LAW ENFORCEMENT

Defunding the police is just not an option .
In a new essay by National Review , Project 21 Co-Chairman Horace Cooper and former Justice Department official John Yoo call out the craziness of the left ’ s demand that governments actually take money away from police departments as a method of criminal justice reform .
They summarily rule out this notion : Additionally , Horace and Yoo consider other ideas that have thus far been suggested by liberals at the federal level to be “ stale , ” “ repackaged ” and even constitutionally questionable considering that police powers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the terms of the 10th Amendment .
Yet Horace and Yoo have found the “ opportunity to propose a truly radical program to address our failing inner cities.
” A lot of that starts with pushing back against the Great Society welfare programs that have devastated black communities in particular .
And many of the ideas they suggest can also be found in the Project 21 ’ s “ Blueprint for a Better Deal for Black America ” which was published in 2018 .
• None “ [ C ] onservatives should push @ @ @ @ @ @ @ can not go back to the crime-plagued cities of the 1960s and 1970s .
• None Don ’ t turn cops into tax collectors .
“ During the last recession , state and local government embarked on an ill-fated strategy to increase the number and amount of fines and fees imposed on our citizens for everything from minor traffic infractions to municipal-code violations… [ T ] his action has generated a significant level of animus against law enforcement by minorities and the working class ( groups that typically bear the brunt of these @ @ @ @ @ @ @ should be returned to the state- and local-government bureaucrats , freeing officers to stay focused on traditional crime fighting — activities that all Americans can support.
” This would also decrease the chance that “ minor infractions can escalate into major altercations ” like in the death of Eric Garner .
• None Police unions should be reformed .
“ The left ’ s critiques of police unions mirror those by conservatives against teachers ’ unions .
Both unions exist to protect the employment of their members , rather than serve the public @ @ @ @ @ @ @ an emphasis on better officers rather than more of them .
“ Police departments… increase the requirements for new recruits and work to improve the professionalism of their existing workforce .
Instead of affirmative-action hiring and promotion , standards for being in law enforcement should be made tougher and should focus on getting the best individuals regardless of color or creed.
” Body cameras can be integral for building greater trust .
• None “ [ W ] e should proactively adopt policies that will minimize the need for police involvement… [ and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , free markets , and community responsibility — to aid us in our efforts.
” These include opportunity zones that go beyond policing and include support for charter schools , tax incentives for scholarships , a bigger role for faith leaders and groups , relaxed regulations on things like occupational licensing and the minimum wage and waiving the Davis-Bacon Act that favors unions over independent black contractors in federal construction work .
“ Ultimately the discussion about law enforcement is an important one , as is the role that police officers play in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ write .
“ Refocusing law enforcement so that it can play its critical role more effectively , while bolstering the foundations of our communities , will help make our inner cities not just safer , but also places of opportunity and hope.
” Horace brought up many of these same issues on a recent edition of Sean Hannity ’ s nationally syndicated talk radio program .
Please click on the video below to hear this revealing interview .
Project 21 , a leading voice of black conservatives for over 25 years , is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Policy Research .
Its members have been quoted , interviewed or published over 40,000 times since the program was created in 1992 .
Contributions to the National Center are tax-deductible and greatly appreciated , and may be earmarked exclusively for the use of Project 21 .
Founded in 1982 , the National Center for Public Policy Research is a non-partisan , free-market , independent conservative think-tank .
Ninety-four percent of its support comes from some 60,000 individuals , less than four percent from foundations and less than two percent from corporations .
Sign @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Project 21 on Twitter at @ Project21News for general announcements .
To be alerted to upcoming media appearances by Project 21 members , follow our media Twitter at @ NCPPRMedia .
The Liberty Beacon Project is now expanding at a near exponential rate , and for this we are grateful and excited !
But we must also be practical .
For 7 years we have not asked for any donations , and have built this project with our own funds as we grew .
We are now experiencing ever increasing growing pains due @ @ @ @ @ @ @ projects we represent .
So we have just installed donation buttons on our websites and ask that you consider this when you visit them .
Nothing is too small .
We thank you for all your support and your considerations … ( TLB ) Disclaimer : TLB websites contain copyrighted material the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner .
We are making such material available to our readers under the provisions of “ fair use ” in an effort to advance a better understanding of political @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The material on this site is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving it for research and educational purposes .
If you wish to use copyrighted material for purposes other than “ fair use ” you must request permission from the copyright owner .

REFORM POLICE: RECOMMIT TO LAW ENFORCEMENT
By: David Almasi
Defunding the police is just not an option.
In a new essay by National Review, Project 21 Co-Chairman Horace Cooper and former Justice Department official John Yoo call out the craziness of the left’s demand that governments actually take money away from police departments as a method of criminal justice reform. They summarily rule out this notion:
Reducing the financial support of our nation’s police departments is a recipe for elevated crime and lack of safety in our communities, particularly those of minorities and the working class…
We could not imagine changes that would produce worse unintended consequences than shutting down or severely cutting back police departments. One of the few success stories in our cities has been the stunning drop in crime.
Additionally, Horace and Yoo consider other ideas that have thus far been suggested by liberals at the federal level to be “stale,” “repackaged” and even constitutionally questionable considering that police powers are largely reserved for the states under the terms of the 10th Amendment.
Yet Horace and Yoo have found the “opportunity to propose a truly radical program to address our failing inner cities.” A lot of that starts with pushing back against the Great Society welfare programs that have devastated black communities in particular.
And many of the ideas they suggest can also be found in the Project 21’s “Blueprint for a Better Deal for Black America” which was published in 2018.
Among Horace’s and Yoo’s suggestions:
“[C]onservatives should push to increase police budgets.” We simply cannot go back to the crime-plagued cities of the 1960s and 1970s.
Don’t turn cops into tax collectors. “During the last recession, state and local government embarked on an ill-fated strategy to increase the number and amount of fines and fees imposed on our citizens for everything from minor traffic infractions to municipal-code violations… [T]his action has generated a significant level of animus against law enforcement by minorities and the working class (groups that typically bear the brunt of these fines and fees)… Revenue raising should be returned to the state- and local-government bureaucrats, freeing officers to stay focused on traditional crime fighting — activities that all Americans can support.” This would also decrease the chance that “minor infractions can escalate into major altercations” like in the death of Eric Garner.
Police unions should be reformed. “The left’s critiques of police unions mirror those by conservatives against teachers’ unions. Both unions exist to protect the employment of their members, rather than serve the public good.”
There must be an emphasis on better officers rather than more of them. “Police departments… increase the requirements for new recruits and work to improve the professionalism of their existing workforce. Instead of affirmative-action hiring and promotion, standards for being in law enforcement should be made tougher and should focus on getting the best individuals regardless of color or creed.” Body cameras can be integral for building greater trust.
“[W]e should proactively adopt policies that will minimize the need for police involvement… [and] look at time-tested approaches — faith, free markets, and community responsibility — to aid us in our efforts.” These include opportunity zones that go beyond policing and include support for charter schools, tax incentives for scholarships, a bigger role for faith leaders and groups, relaxed regulations on things like occupational licensing and the minimum wage and waiving the Davis-Bacon Act that favors unions over independent black contractors in federal construction work.
“Ultimately the discussion about law enforcement is an important one, as is the role that police officers play in our society,” Horace and You write. “Refocusing law enforcement so that it can play its critical role more effectively, while bolstering the foundations of our communities, will help make our inner cities not just safer, but also places of opportunity and hope.”
Horace brought up many of these same issues on a recent edition of Sean Hannity’s nationally syndicated talk radio program. Please click on the video below to hear this revealing interview.
••••
To schedule an interview with a member of Project 21, contact Judy Kent at (703) 759-0269.
BLACK LEADERSHIP NETWORK
Project 21, a leading voice of black conservatives for over 25 years, is sponsored by the National Center for Public Policy Research. Its members have been quoted, interviewed or published over 40,000 times since the program was created in 1992. Contributions to the National Center are tax-deductible and greatly appreciated, and may be earmarked exclusively for the use of Project 21. Founded in 1982, the National Center for Public Policy Research is a non-partisan, free-market, independent conservative think-tank. Ninety-four percent of its support comes from some 60,000 individuals, less than four percent from foundations and less than two percent from corporations. Sign up for email updates here. Follow Project 21 on Twitter at @Project21News for general announcements. To be alerted to upcoming media appearances by Project 21 members, follow our media Twitter at @NCPPRMedia.
••••
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Read more great articles by Project 21’s David Almasi
••••
••••
Stay tuned to …
••••
The Liberty Beacon Project is now expanding at a near exponential rate, and for this we are grateful and excited! But we must also be practical. For 7 years we have not asked for any donations, and have built this project with our own funds as we grew. We are now experiencing ever increasing growing pains due to the large number of websites and projects we represent. So we have just installed donation buttons on our websites and ask that you consider this when you visit them. Nothing is too small. We thank you for all your support and your considerations … (TLB)
••••
Comment Policy: As a privately owned web site, we reserve the right to remove comments that contain spam, advertising, vulgarity, threats of violence, racism, or personal/abusive attacks on other users. This also applies to trolling, the use of more than one alias, or just intentional mischief. Enforcement of this policy is at the discretion of this websites administrators. Repeat offenders may be blocked or permanently banned without prior warning.
••••
Disclaimer: TLB websites contain copyrighted material the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. We are making such material available to our readers under the provisions of “fair use” in an effort to advance a better understanding of political, health, economic and social issues. The material on this site is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving it for research and educational purposes. If you wish to use copyrighted material for purposes other than “fair use” you must request permission from the copyright owner.
••••
Disclaimer: The information and opinions shared are for informational purposes only including, but not limited to, text, graphics, images and other material are not intended as medical advice or instruction. Nothing mentioned is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment.


thelibertybeacon--2020-06-21--LEARN 2 UNLEARN – Return to Health (E32) – The Uncharted Waters (1)

As I had formulated what I wanted to share for this Episode , it came to me that it was really vital , as I watched myself go this past week , to stress how uncharted these waters are to us , how terrifying it can be to be on your own and to be at the mercy of anything anytime… But with FAITH and belief in one ’ s self , ANYTHING is possible… So here are a few more incentives for the week : Because of teas and avocado and others , it tends to help you develop @ @ @ @ @ @ @ too , now that the Spirit is attentive to the body and what it wants/needs This was a hard one for me , for a long time , simply because I would buck anything that was ‘ told ’ to me , as rebels often do , but now , being older and wiser , I see the important and vital connection to HEALING that water has , as it is Sacred .
Please watch the show for this and other bullet points examined… When I was blessed to do a four-day fast/prayer @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Mi ’ gmaq , I saw first-hand what Healing can do ~ YOU are in charge , YOU decide if you stay or go , YOU learn sacrifice through appreciation and prayer , by yourself ~ And through that process , I can really appreciate a whole lot more when people talk about ‘ moderate fasting , perhaps 24 hours or something ~ and the good it does to your body ~ And the trick is to WANT to do it ~ You ’ re enjoying the ride , it is for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ learn how to go inside ~ and Heal what needs to be addressed ~ You ’ re not there for someone else , or because someone else told you to go ~ between ‘ being lazy ’ and ‘ overdoing it ’ ~ polar opposites ~ My grandmother always said “ The truth is somewhere in the middle ” ~ balance , right ?
~ slowing down , some days not doing ‘ anything ’ if need be ~ of course most of us are not so lucky , but pampering yourself is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is sending you signals that it needs it… Then , some days , pushing just a bit more , doing just that much more , trying new things out , new ideas , new plans , new objectives , new habits… I am seeing this all week , some days bleeding , then not… cramping pains along with those ‘ spasms ’ that need to get out… Very scary on your own , but with faith and belief that this CAN HEAL , the body will follow suit with where the mind is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ DAY AT A TIME , I AM GROWING MORE AND MORE SECURE EACH DAY , LEARNING TO TRUST and to SHED THE FEAR ” Thanks for tuning in and see you all next week , Creator willing !
The Liberty Beacon Project is now expanding at a near exponential rate , and for this we are grateful and excited !
But we must also be practical .
For 7 years we have not asked for any donations , and have built this project with our own funds as we grew .
We are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to the large number of websites and projects we represent .
So we have just installed donation buttons on our websites and ask that you consider this when you visit them .
Nothing is too small .
We thank you for all your support and your considerations … ( TLB ) Disclaimer : TLB websites contain copyrighted material the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner .
We are making such material available to our readers under the provisions of “ fair use ” in an effort @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , health , economic and social issues .
The material on this site is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving it for research and educational purposes .
If you wish to use copyrighted material for purposes other than “ fair use ” you must request permission from the copyright owner .

LEARN 2 UNLEARN – Return to Health (E32) – The Uncharted Waters (1)
WATCH SHOW BELOW INTRO ARTICLE
Your Host: Luca Majno
As I had formulated what I wanted to share for this Episode, it came to me that it was really vital, as I watched myself go this past week, to stress how uncharted these waters are to us, how terrifying it can be to be on your own and to be at the mercy of anything anytime… But with FAITH and belief in one’s self, ANYTHING is possible…
So here are a few more incentives for the week:
Forming new eating habits
Because of teas and avocado and others, it tends to help you develop better eating habits ~ and wiser, too, now that the Spirit is attentive to the body and what it wants/needs
More water, more water
This was a hard one for me, for a long time, simply because I would buck anything that was ‘told’ to me, as rebels often do, but now, being older and wiser, I see the important and vital connection to HEALING that water has, as it is Sacred.
Please watch the show for this and other bullet points examined…
On a Spiritual side-note…
When I was blessed to do a four-day fast/prayer retreat in the mountains of Québec with the Mi’gmaq, I saw first-hand what Healing can do ~ YOU are in charge, YOU decide if you stay or go, YOU learn sacrifice through appreciation and prayer, by yourself ~ And through that process, I can really appreciate a whole lot more when people talk about ‘moderate fasting, perhaps 24 hours or something ~ and the good it does to your body ~
And the trick is to WANT to do it ~ You’re enjoying the ride, it is for you and only you ~ as you learn how to go inside ~ and Heal what needs to be addressed ~ You’re not there for someone else, or because someone else told you to go ~
Learn to live the Difference
between ‘being lazy’ and ‘overdoing it’ ~ polar opposites ~ My grandmother always said “The truth is somewhere in the middle” ~ balance, right? ~ slowing down, some days not doing ‘anything’ if need be ~ of course most of us are not so lucky, but pampering yourself is really important, especially if your body is sending you signals that it needs it… Then, some days, pushing just a bit more, doing just that much more, trying new things out, new ideas, new plans, new objectives, new habits…
I am seeing this all week, some days bleeding, then not… cramping pains along with those ‘spasms’ that need to get out… Very scary on your own, but with faith and belief that this CAN HEAL, the body will follow suit with where the mind is geared…
“I AM SICK, I AM INSECURE & SCARED”
becomes …
“I AM HEALTHY, ONE DAY AT A TIME, I AM GROWING MORE AND MORE SECURE EACH DAY, LEARNING TO TRUST and to SHED THE FEAR”
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Watch this revealing presentation …

Thanks for tuning in and see you all next week, Creator willing!
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More Episodes of LEARN 2 UNLEARN
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ABOUT THE LEARN 2 UNLEARN HOST
Your Show Host: Luca Majno is the TLB Project Media Technical Director, an investigative journalist, researcher and passionate advocate of Indigenous People (The Original People), of their ‘Turtle Island’ which is now North America. Born in Boston, Ma. and raised in Geneva, Switzerland, he has lived for the last 25 years in Canada, where his activism started, and has since lived in Tennessee and Keokuk, Iowa, where he now resides. Exposing past and present crimes of any nature is a sure way to change the course of humanity towards a brighter future.
Follow Luca on facebook @ learn2unlearn
Email: [email protected]
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thelibertybeacon--2020-06-21--Lessons from the Lockdown – Why Are So Many Fewer Children Dying?

Lessons from the Lockdown – Why Are So Many Fewer Children Dying ?
Covid19 is a serious public health issue , but the breathless reporting among the media of positive tests and an ever‐rising death toll does little to instruct us about the true nature of the virus and the unprecedented steps taken to prevent its impact .
As in many complex and pervasive health phenomena , there are many ways to measure health effects , but in our view the proper measure of impact is not a narrow or intermediate metric , but rather total health outcomes .
In @ @ @ @ @ @ @ large populations and where the immediate concern is sharp increases in deaths , the best measure of outcomes is not a selective measure of deaths somehow attributed to the disease but instead is deaths from all causes .
For perspective , these deaths must be compared to historical death rates from all causes in prior years ( Percent of Expected Deaths ) .
As we will show , a balanced view of the broader American Covid19 experience demonstrates both the scale and variability of its negative outcomes in older American , especially the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Surprisingly , U.S. mortality rates have declined among young people during the lockdown , especially among infants .
These trends have gone largely unnoticed and remain unexplained .
Death rates from all causes vary widely and somewhat predictably .
The most pronounced variation occurs by age cohort ( most deaths occur in the elderly ) and by time of year and to a lesser extent by geography .
All‐cause deaths are cyclical , commonly rising in the winter months and “ flu season ” and then falling to lower levels as warmer @ @ @ @ @ @ @ death rates vary by region , this is mostly a result of differences in the age mix of residents .
In the case of Covid19 , death rates are not yet known to be cyclical but they do vary significantly by age and geography .
In the analysis that follows we have examined the evidence on total death rates by geography ( mostly by state ) , by age group and by week ( and flu season ) .
We have extracted eight main lessons .
Some of these are part of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ unexpected or at least have not been widely circulated .
Why this discrepancy ?
Since the infectious disease establishment has controlled the “ pandemic ” narrative , the variance between this evidence and conventional wisdom is largely driven by longstanding bias and error patterns among the experts in that community .
The Covid19 impact on all‐ cause deaths has been sharp and clear .
Tens of thousands more Americans than expected died in a brief period .
[ 1 ] Before mid‐March , overall U.S. deaths were trending at a level no different @ @ @ @ @ @ @ week .
Beginning in the week ending on March 28 , all‐cause deaths began rising sharply , peaking in the week ending April 11 at around 75,000 , or 137 % of Expected Deaths for the week .
Immediately thereafter , all-caused deaths began dropping sharply .
Within five weeks , all‐cause deaths were back to their typical range .
By the week ending May 16 , the measurable pandemic death impact had ended even though Covid19‐related deaths most certainly had not .
[ 2 ] Attributing a Cause of Death ( COD @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , due to significant overlap among COVID‐19 , Pneumonia , Influenza , and presumably other primary CODs .
[ 2 ] That said , the spike in deaths officially attributed to COVID‐ 19 occurred in tandem with the spike in all‐cause deaths , leaving little doubt that Covid19 was the main contributor to the excess of expected deaths between March 22 and May 9 .
At least in this 8‐week period , the Covid19 pandemic was considerably worse than a typical flu season .
To the extent that all‐cause deaths fell back to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ mortality attributable to the pandemic has passed .
[ 1 ] Increases in all‐cause death rates during the pandemic have been extremely localized , varying widely by state/jurisdiction .
For the 3 ½ month period surrounding the pandemic , starting on February 1 through May 16 ( the most recent period with 100 % reporting ) , total deaths in the US came in at 105 % of expectations .
[ 2 ] Many states actually saw lower than expected deaths during the period .
To be sure , an excess death rate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is considerable but also far short of the apocalyptic narrative the pandemic has received .
Greater‐than‐expected death rates were heavily concentrated in the Northeastern corridor .
New York City and its surrounding area , including New Jersey , New York State ( although possibly not upstate New York ) , Connecticut , Massachusetts , Maryland and the District of Columbia have so far comprised 6 of top 8 jurisdictions with excess all‐cause deaths .
New York City was hit especially hard .
In a typical spring , New York City could expect 700‐800 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ March to mid‐May , that number spiked sharply , by ten times that amount , reaching over 7500 deaths in the peak week ending April 11 .
[ 1 ] Other Northeastern states saw sharp increases in expected deaths but nowhere near New York City ’ s rate .
[ 2 ] The timing of the peaks has varied , Massachusetts came soonest , followed by Maryland , New York City New York State and New Jersey .
Nevertheless , the entire region saw declines in expected deaths starting in May .
Many @ @ @ @ @ @ @ increase in expected deaths , including some of the largest states such as California , Florida and Texas .
[ 2 ] This suggests there may have been specific factors that influenced the experience in New York City that were not shared elsewhere .
To the extent that policies have varied across the states , it is not clear that the imposition and/or presence of stringent lock‐down policies had much to do with the variation in excess deaths .
Less stringent lockdown policies were not associated with higher death rates .
In fact @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to impose a lockdown are among the roughly 20 jurisdictions with no excess deaths at all .
[ 2 ] Several states with the most aggressive lockdowns , including California , Maine , Minnesota and Pennsylvania showed almost no excess deaths effect .
Despite huge population centers , California looked nothing like New York City and State .
Maine , a mostly rural state , imposed among the more draconian policies with essentially no reason .
Minnesota followed a far more aggressive lockdown policy than its neighboring states of Iowa , South Dakota @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it ’ s Covid19 deaths were among the most concentrated in the country : roughly 80 % of Minnesota ’ s Covid19 deaths occurred among the infirm elderly who were residents of long‐term care facilities .
[ 2 ] Did aggressive lockdowns stave off the worst‐case scenario , preventing vulnerable states from becoming disaster areas like New York City ?
No controlled experiment will give us that answer .
Pennsylvania makes the best case for that argument , with an early excess death pattern that resembled its neighbors in the Northeastern corridor but @ @ @ @ @ @ @ April .
But Pennsylvania is also an unusual geographic unit , with its largest city , Philadelphia , lying on the coast and separated from the western part of the state and its second largest city , Pittsburgh , by the Appalachian Mountains .
This anomaly makes it difficult to draw clear conclusions from Pennsylvania ’ s Covid19 curve .
One universally accepted fact of the Covid19 pandemic is that the death risk is highest among the elderly .
The all‐cause death numbers show this effect clearly , with a stark increase in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ beginning in late March , peaking in early April and then turning sharply downward in May , so that by month end the excess death rate has almost disappeared .
[ 1 ] Tens of thousands of excess deaths in this age group have driven a large portion of overall US excess deaths .
Adults between 18‐64 years of age show a similar pattern in excess deaths as the elderly , although the overall death toll has been less .
[ 1 ] With a dataset that provides more detailed age groupings , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the older the age cohort , the more total deaths increased during the pandemic .
[ 3 ] The largest number of deaths as well as increases in deaths occur in those aged 85 years old and older , followed by those aged 75‐84 , next by the age group from 65-74 .
The sole remaining group showing an increase in deaths during the pandemic was the group aged 55‐64 , with a modest increase in deaths during April .
For all age cohorts with ages under 55 , the impact of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ they understand this age effect and discount it .
That older people die more frequently is no excuse not to protect them from the pandemic .
But as we have deployed lockdowns as a blunt instrument to protect the elderly from a tragic and premature loss of life‐years , we have missed a completely unintended and beneficial benefit of the lockdowns : an unexplained collapse in excess deaths among the young , especially children and infants .
Deaths among children under 18 years of age are relatively rare and show patterns that are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cyclical effect in all‐cause deaths one sees among adults is entirely absent in children .
And whereas weekly deaths among adults dominate the overall US death toll—around 13,000 deaths per week in 18‐64‐year‐olds and 35‐40,000 deaths per week among those 65 and older—weekly deaths among children are scattered across the states and typically fall around 700 .
Well over half of that occurs in infants under 1 year of age .
But the pandemic experience has brought on a surprising effect on this expected death rate among children .
Starting in early March @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , from an expected level of around 700 deaths per week to well under 500 by mid‐April and throughout May .
[ 1 ] As untimely deaths spiked among the elderly in Manhattan nursing homes and in similar settings all over the country , something mysterious was saving the lives of children .
As springtime in America came along with massive disruptions in family life amid near universal lockdowns , roughly 30 % fewer children died .
Was this a protective effect of school closures ?
Were teenagers getting themselves into risky situations @ @ @ @ @ @ @ There was very little effect among school age children or adolescents .
[ 3 ] Virtually the entire change came from infants .
Somehow , the changing pattern of American life during the lockdowns has been saving the lives of hundreds of infants , over 200 per week .
Deaths in infants and children occur at a higher rate in minority groups .
[ 4 ] So the reduction in childhood deaths during the lockdowns has meant that the lives of black and Hispanic infants and children have been saved at a higher @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
But if one considers life‐years lost , the premature death of an infant carries more weight than the premature death of someone whose life expectancy is 5 years or less .
And whereas the median age at death of , say , a Minnesotan dying of Covid19 is 83 , the typical life expectancy of that senior citizen absent Covid19 might be just 2‐3 more years .
By comparison , when an infant in lockdown avoids a death , the potential impact in life years saved can rise to 80 years or @ @ @ @ @ @ @ measures the net effect of life years either lost or gained during the pandemic and associated lockdowns , the net result across age groups is unexpectedly mixed .
Not surprisingly , excess deaths are highest in the oldest seniors where life expectancy is the lowest .
Combining the excess deaths with life expectancy by age group ( with an adjustment for the quality of those life‐years ) shows the toll of the pandemic : about 540,000 life‐years lost among those 65 and older .
[ 3 , 5 , 6 ] By comparison @ @ @ @ @ @ @ highest in infants , where the life expectancy benefits are the greatest .
Compared to expectations , the lives of over 200 infants per week were saved during the month of May .
Combining the number of lives saved in infants and children aged 1‐4 , demonstrates a smaller but comparably large and beneficial effect : roughly 145,000 life‐years saved among children under 5 .
Noting the surprising effect of the lockdown on infants and children under 5 does nothing to negate the tragic effect of the pandemic on the elderly .
It @ @ @ @ @ @ @ : why are so many fewer children dying ?
When infants die , the cause is frequently some form of congenital condition or birth defect .
Sadly , accidents and homicides are frequent causes as well .
There are however , frequent cases in which previously healthy infants die unexpectedly .
These deaths are usually classified as “ Sudden Infant Death Syndrome ” or SIDS .
According to the CDC , SIDS deaths are one of the two largest causes of death among infants aged 1 month to 1 year .
[ 7 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the trend in SIDS deaths during the pandemic .
We have , however , heard anecdotal reports from emergency room ( ER ) doctors suggesting some have observed a decline in SIDS .
One doctor who says he might see 3 cases of SIDS in a typical week has seen zero cases since the pandemic and associated lockdowns began .
What has changed during this period that might have such an effect ?
Are infant deaths not being recorded ?
Are parents taking better care of their families while working remotely and their @ @ @ @ @ @ @ There are many possible hypotheses about the infant death decline .
One very clear change that has received publicity is that public health officials are bemoaning the sharp decline in infant vaccinations as parents are not taking their infants into pediatric offices for their regular well‐baby checks .
In the May 15 issue of the CDC Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report ( MMWR ) , a group of authors from the CDC and Kaiser Permanente reported a sharp decline in provider orders for vaccines as well as a decline in pediatric vaccine doses @ @ @ @ @ @ @ began in early march , around the time infant deaths began declining .
This effect may not be confined to the U.S .
The World Health Organization issued a press release on May 22 noting that , “ Since March 2020 , routine childhood immunization services have been disrupted on a global scale that may be unprecedented since the inception of expanded programs on immunization ( EPI ) in the 1970s.
” [ 9 ] Are fewer children dying because their parents are skipping their routine childhood vaccines ?
If lives are being @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a question that urgently needs answering .
Covid19 is unique among recent pandemics in that the mortality toll is measurable , real and convincing .
It is also nearly certain to be transitory , but that won ’ t stop the propaganda juggernaut from rolling forward .
However , as the saying goes , “ the best laid plans of mice and men often go awry.
” What no one would have predicted in advance of Covid19 is that the extreme lockdown response has produced a natural experiment that actually calls into question @ @ @ @ @ @ @ all‐‐that the infectious disease and public health community have been pushing for years .
We should mourn the deaths of the elderly Manhattan nursing home residents but also take heed of the hundreds of avoided infant deaths .
Only with that kind of balance will we draw the proper lessons from the pandemic and the lockdowns that have followed in its wake .
• None The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention .
National Center for Health Statistics Mortality Surveillance System .
[ Online ] [ Cited : June 6 , 2020 .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ — .
Deaths involving coronavirus disease 2019 ( COVID‐19 ) by race and Hispanic origin group and age , by state .
[ Online ] [ Cited : June 6 , 2020 . ]
https : //data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Deaths‐involving‐coronavirus‐disease‐2019‐COVID‐19/ks3g‐spdg .
• None The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention .
Weekly counts of deaths by jurisdiction and age group .
[ Online ] [ Cited : June 7 , 2020 . ]
https : //data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Weekly‐counts‐of‐deaths‐by‐jurisdiction‐and‐age‐gr/y5bj‐9g5w .
• None Santoli , Jeanne M et al .
Effects of the COVID‐19 Pandemic on Routine Pediatric Vaccine Ordering @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cdc.gov .
[ Online ] May 15 , 2020. https : //www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6919e2.htm # F1_down .
• None World Health Organization .
At least 80 million children under one at risk of diseases such as diphtheria , measles and polio as COVID‐19 disrupts routine vaccination efforts , warn Gavi , WHO and UNICEF .
[ Online ] [ Cited : May 23 , 2020 . ]
https : //www.who.int/news‐room/detail/22‐05‐2020‐at‐least‐80‐million‐children‐under‐one‐at‐risk‐of‐diseases‐such‐as‐diphtheria‐measles‐and‐polio‐as‐covid‐19‐disrupts‐routine‐vaccination‐efforts‐warn‐gavi‐who‐and‐unicef .
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention note the following regarding underreporting in most recent weeks .
To ensure that the signals we are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ reporting lags , we have deliberately excluded the most recent four weeks of available data ( the charts are week ending May 16 , 2020 , pulled June 6 ) .
Because CDC also re‐states historical data every time they refresh their datasets , we also refreshed all reported data for two prior years with every weekly dataset update .

Lessons from the Lockdown – Why Are So Many Fewer Children Dying?
By Amy Becker and CHD Guest Writer Mark Blaxill
Covid19 is a serious public health issue, but the breathless reporting among the media of positive tests and an ever‐rising death toll does little to instruct us about the true nature of the virus and the unprecedented steps taken to prevent its impact. As in many complex and pervasive health phenomena, there are many ways to measure health effects, but in our view the proper measure of impact is not a narrow or intermediate metric, but rather total health outcomes. In the case of a pandemic virus affecting large populations and where the immediate concern is sharp increases in deaths, the best measure of outcomes is not a selective measure of deaths somehow attributed to the disease but instead is deaths from all causes. For perspective, these deaths must be compared to historical death rates from all causes in prior years (Percent of Expected Deaths). As we will show, a balanced view of the broader American Covid19 experience demonstrates both the scale and variability of its negative outcomes in older American, especially the elderly, but also some unexpected positives. Surprisingly, U.S. mortality rates have declined among young people during the lockdown, especially among infants. These trends have gone largely unnoticed and remain unexplained.
Death rates from all causes vary widely and somewhat predictably. The most pronounced variation occurs by age cohort (most deaths occur in the elderly) and by time of year and to a lesser extent by geography. All‐cause deaths are cyclical, commonly rising in the winter months and “flu season” and then falling to lower levels as warmer weather arrives. To the extent that death rates vary by region, this is mostly a result of differences in the age mix of residents. In the case of Covid19, death rates are not yet known to be cyclical but they do vary significantly by age and geography.
In the analysis that follows we have examined the evidence on total death rates by geography (mostly by state), by age group and by week (and flu season). We have extracted eight main lessons. Some of these are part of the ongoing conversation around Covid19; others are unexpected or at least have not been widely circulated. Why this discrepancy? Since the infectious disease establishment has controlled the “pandemic” narrative, the variance between this evidence and conventional wisdom is largely driven by longstanding bias and error patterns among the experts in that community.
Overall U.S. trend
The Covid19 impact on all‐ cause deaths has been sharp and clear. Tens of thousands more Americans than expected died in a brief period. [1]
Before mid‐March, overall U.S. deaths were trending at a level no different from recent years at between 55‐60,000 per week. Beginning in the week ending on March 28, all‐cause deaths began rising sharply, peaking in the week ending April 11 at around 75,000, or 137% of Expected Deaths for the week. Immediately thereafter, all-caused deaths began dropping sharply.
Within five weeks, all‐cause deaths were back to their typical range. By the week ending May 16, the measurable pandemic death impact had ended even though Covid19‐related deaths most certainly had not. [2]
Attributing a Cause of Death (COD) to COVID‐19 is not always clear‐cut, due to significant overlap among COVID‐19, Pneumonia, Influenza, and presumably other primary CODs. [2]
That said, the spike in deaths officially attributed to COVID‐ 19 occurred in tandem with the spike in all‐cause deaths, leaving little doubt that Covid19 was the main contributor to the excess of expected deaths between March 22 and May 9.
At least in this 8‐week period, the Covid19 pandemic was considerably worse than a typical flu season. To the extent that all‐cause deaths fell back to expected levels during May, the excess mortality attributable to the pandemic has passed. [1]
Localization
Increases in all‐cause death rates during the pandemic have been extremely localized, varying widely by state/jurisdiction. For the 3 ½ month period surrounding the pandemic, starting on February 1 through May 16 (the most recent period with 100% reporting), total deaths in the US came in at 105% of expectations. [2]
Many states actually saw lower than expected deaths during the period. To be sure, an excess death rate of 5% for the entire U.S. is considerable but also far short of the apocalyptic narrative the pandemic has received.
Greater‐than‐expected death rates were heavily concentrated in the Northeastern corridor. New York City and its surrounding area, including New Jersey, New York State (although possibly not upstate New York), Connecticut, Massachusetts, Maryland and the District of Columbia have so far comprised 6 of top 8 jurisdictions with excess all‐cause deaths. New York City was hit especially hard. In a typical spring, New York City could expect 700‐800 all‐cause deaths per week. From mid‐ March to mid‐May, that number spiked sharply, by ten times that amount, reaching over 7500 deaths in the peak week ending April 11. [1]
Other Northeastern states saw sharp increases in expected deaths but nowhere near New York City’s rate. [2] The timing of the peaks has varied, Massachusetts came soonest, followed by Maryland, New York City New York State and New Jersey. Nevertheless, the entire region saw declines in expected deaths starting in May.
Many states saw no or only a modest increase in expected deaths, including some of the largest states such as California, Florida and Texas. [2] This suggests there may have been specific factors that influenced the experience in New York City that were not shared elsewhere.
Variation by policy environment
To the extent that policies have varied across the states, it is not clear that the imposition and/or presence of stringent lock‐down policies had much to do with the variation in excess deaths. Less stringent lockdown policies were not associated with higher death rates. In fact, the 5 states that chose not to impose a lockdown are among the roughly 20 jurisdictions with no excess deaths at all. [2]
Several states with the most aggressive lockdowns, including California, Maine, Minnesota and Pennsylvania showed almost no excess deaths effect. Despite huge population centers, California looked nothing like New York City and State. Maine, a mostly rural state, imposed among the more draconian policies with essentially no reason. Minnesota followed a far more aggressive lockdown policy than its neighboring states of Iowa, South Dakota, North Dakota and Wisconsin. Yet it’s Covid19 deaths were among the most concentrated in the country: roughly 80% of Minnesota’s Covid19 deaths occurred among the infirm elderly who were residents of long‐term care facilities. [2]
Did aggressive lockdowns stave off the worst‐case scenario, preventing vulnerable states from becoming disaster areas like New York City? No controlled experiment will give us that answer. Pennsylvania makes the best case for that argument, with an early excess death pattern that resembled its neighbors in the Northeastern corridor but saw that rate drop precipitously by early April. But Pennsylvania is also an unusual geographic unit, with its largest city, Philadelphia, lying on the coast and separated from the western part of the state and its second largest city, Pittsburgh, by the Appalachian Mountains. This anomaly makes it difficult to draw clear conclusions from Pennsylvania’s Covid19 curve.
Age effect: elderly
One universally accepted fact of the Covid19 pandemic is that the death risk is highest among the elderly. The all‐cause death numbers show this effect clearly, with a stark increase in deaths among those 65 years and older beginning in late March, peaking in early April and then turning sharply downward in May, so that by month end the excess death rate has almost disappeared. [1] Tens of thousands of excess deaths in this age group have driven a large portion of overall US excess deaths.
Adults between 18‐64 years of age show a similar pattern in excess deaths as the elderly, although the overall death toll has been less. [1]
With a dataset that provides more detailed age groupings, the impact is even more clear: the older the age cohort, the more total deaths increased during the pandemic. [3] The largest number of deaths as well as increases in deaths occur in those aged 85 years old and older, followed by those aged 75‐84, next by the age group from 65-74. The sole remaining group showing an increase in deaths during the pandemic was the group aged 55‐64, with a modest increase in deaths during April. For all age cohorts with ages under 55, the impact of the pandemic is undetectable.
Most observers believe they understand this age effect and discount it. That older people die more frequently is no excuse not to protect them from the pandemic. But as we have deployed lockdowns as a blunt instrument to protect the elderly from a tragic and premature loss of life‐years, we have missed a completely unintended and beneficial benefit of the lockdowns: an unexplained collapse in excess deaths among the young, especially children and infants.
Age effect: children
Deaths among children under 18 years of age are relatively rare and show patterns that are different from their seniors. The pronounced cyclical effect in all‐cause deaths one sees among adults is entirely absent in children. And whereas weekly deaths among adults dominate the overall US death toll—around 13,000 deaths per week in 18‐64‐year‐olds and 35‐40,000 deaths per week among those 65 and older—weekly deaths among children are scattered across the states and typically fall around 700. Well over half of that occurs in infants under 1 year of age.
But the pandemic experience has brought on a surprising effect on this expected death rate among children. Starting in early March, expected deaths began a sharp decline, from an expected level of around 700 deaths per week to well under 500 by mid‐April and throughout May. [1]
As untimely deaths spiked among the elderly in Manhattan nursing homes and in similar settings all over the country, something mysterious was saving the lives of children. As springtime in America came along with massive disruptions in family life amid near universal lockdowns, roughly 30% fewer children died.
Was this a protective effect of school closures? Were teenagers getting themselves into risky situations at a lower rate? No. There was very little effect among school age children or adolescents. [3]
Virtually the entire change came from infants. Somehow, the changing pattern of American life during the lockdowns has been saving the lives of hundreds of infants, over 200 per week.
Deaths in infants and children occur at a higher rate in minority groups. [4] So the reduction in childhood deaths during the lockdowns has meant that the lives of black and Hispanic infants and children have been saved at a higher rate.
Net effect in life‐years
Every untimely death is tragic. But if one considers life‐years lost, the premature death of an infant carries more weight than the premature death of someone whose life expectancy is 5 years or less. And whereas the median age at death of, say, a Minnesotan dying of Covid19 is 83, the typical life expectancy of that senior citizen absent Covid19 might be just 2‐3 more years. By comparison, when an infant in lockdown avoids a death, the potential impact in life years saved can rise to 80 years or more. [5]
When one measures the net effect of life years either lost or gained during the pandemic and associated lockdowns, the net result across age groups is unexpectedly mixed. Not surprisingly, excess deaths are highest in the oldest seniors where life expectancy is the lowest. Combining the excess deaths with life expectancy by age group (with an adjustment for the quality of those life‐years) shows the toll of the pandemic: about 540,000 life‐years lost among those 65 and older. [3, 5, 6] By comparison, the reduction in expected deaths is highest in infants, where the life expectancy benefits are the greatest. Compared to expectations, the lives of over 200 infants per week were saved during the month of May. Combining the number of lives saved in infants and children aged 1‐4, demonstrates a smaller but comparably large and beneficial effect: roughly 145,000 life‐years saved among children under 5. Noting the surprising effect of the lockdown on infants and children under 5 does nothing to negate the tragic effect of the pandemic on the elderly. It does, however, raise a question: why are so many fewer children dying?
Causation?
When infants die, the cause is frequently some form of congenital condition or birth defect. Sadly, accidents and homicides are frequent causes as well. There are however, frequent cases in which previously healthy infants die unexpectedly. These deaths are usually classified as “Sudden Infant Death Syndrome” or SIDS. According to the CDC, SIDS deaths are one of the two largest causes of death among infants aged 1 month to 1 year. [7]
We have no specific data on the trend in SIDS deaths during the pandemic. We have, however, heard anecdotal reports from emergency room (ER) doctors suggesting some have observed a decline in SIDS. One doctor who says he might see 3 cases of SIDS in a typical week has seen zero cases since the pandemic and associated lockdowns began.
What has changed during this period that might have such an effect? Are infant deaths not being recorded? Are parents taking better care of their families while working remotely and their children are not going to school? There are many possible hypotheses about the infant death decline.
One very clear change that has received publicity is that public health officials are bemoaning the sharp decline in infant vaccinations as parents are not taking their infants into pediatric offices for their regular well‐baby checks. In the May 15 issue of the CDC Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR), a group of authors from the CDC and Kaiser Permanente reported a sharp decline in provider orders for vaccines as well as a decline in pediatric vaccine doses administered. [8] These declines began in early march, around the time infant deaths began declining.
This effect may not be confined to the U.S. The World Health Organization issued a press release on May 22 noting that, “Since March 2020, routine childhood immunization services have been disrupted on a global scale that may be unprecedented since the inception of expanded programs on immunization (EPI) in the 1970s.” [9] Are fewer children dying because their parents are skipping their routine childhood vaccines? If lives are being saved during the pandemic, this is a question that urgently needs answering.
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Covid19 is unique among recent pandemics in that the mortality toll is measurable, real and convincing. It is also nearly certain to be transitory, but that won’t stop the propaganda juggernaut from rolling forward. However, as the saying goes, “the best laid plans of mice and men often go awry.” What no one would have predicted in advance of Covid19 is that the extreme lockdown response has produced a natural experiment that actually calls into question the very actions—widespread, mandated vaccines for all‐‐that the infectious disease and public health community have been pushing for years. We should mourn the deaths of the elderly Manhattan nursing home residents but also take heed of the hundreds of avoided infant deaths. Only with that kind of balance will we draw the proper lessons from the pandemic and the lockdowns that have followed in its wake.
References:
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. National Center for Health Statistics Mortality Surveillance System. [Online] [Cited: June 6, 2020.] https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/fluview/mortality.html. —. Provisional Death Counts for Coronavirus Disease (COVID‐19). [Online] [Cited: June 6, 2020.] https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/index.htm. —. Provisional COVID‐19 Death Counts by Sex, Age, and Week. [Online] [Cited: June 6, 2020.] https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional‐COVID‐19‐Death‐Counts‐by‐Sex‐Age‐and‐W/vsak‐wrfu. —. Deaths involving coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19) by race and Hispanic origin group and age, by state. [Online] [Cited: June 6, 2020.] https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Deaths‐involving‐coronavirus‐disease‐2019‐COVID‐19/ks3g‐spdg. Social Security Administration. Actuarial Life Table. [Online] [Cited: June 7, 2020.] https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Weekly counts of deaths by jurisdiction and age group. [Online] [Cited: June 7, 2020.] https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Weekly‐counts‐of‐deaths‐by‐jurisdiction‐and‐age‐gr/y5bj‐9g5w. —. NCHS Data Brief, Number 355. [Online] January 2020. [Cited: May 16, 2020.] https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/databriefs/db355_tables‐508.pdf#4. Santoli, Jeanne M et al. Effects of the COVID‐19 Pandemic on Routine Pediatric Vaccine Ordering and Administration — United States, 2020. cdc.gov. [Online] May 15, 2020.
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6919e2.htm#F1_down. World Health Organization. At least 80 million children under one at risk of diseases such as diphtheria, measles and polio as COVID‐19 disrupts routine vaccination efforts, warn Gavi, WHO and UNICEF. [Online] [Cited: May 23, 2020.] https://www.who.int/news‐room/detail/22‐05‐2020‐at‐least‐80‐million‐children‐under‐one‐at‐risk‐of‐diseases‐such‐as‐diphtheria‐measles‐and‐polio‐as‐covid‐19‐disrupts‐routine‐vaccination‐efforts‐warn‐gavi‐who‐and‐unicef.
Endnotes:
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention note the following regarding underreporting in most recent weeks. To ensure that the signals we are reporting are not the result of these reporting lags, we have deliberately excluded the most recent four weeks of available data (the charts are week ending May 16, 2020, pulled June 6). Because CDC also re‐states historical data every time they refresh their datasets, we also refreshed all reported data for two prior years with every weekly dataset update.
Provisional counts are weighted to account for potential underreporting in the most recent weeks. However, data for the most recent week(s) are still likely to be incomplete. Only about 60% of deaths are reported within 10 days of the date of death, and there is considerable variation by jurisdiction and age. The completeness of provisional data varies by cause of death and by age group. However, the weights applied do not account for this variability. Therefore, the predicted numbers of deaths may be too low for some age groups and causes of death. For example, provisional data on deaths among younger age groups is typically less complete than among older age groups. Predicted counts may therefore be too low among the younger age groups. More detail about the methods, weighting, data, and limitations can be found in the Technical Notes.
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About the Authors: The above article authored by Amy Becker and Mark Blaxill was originally published as a White Paper from Health Choice The above article authored byandwas originally published as a White Paper from
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thelibertybeacon--2020-06-22--Belarus – A US Sponsored Color Revolution Is Underway

U.S.-engineered attempts to overthrow a foreign government by stirring civil arrests are usually named after a color or , at times , a flower .
Thus we had an “ rose revolution ” in Georgia , a “ green movement ” in Iran , and an “ orange revolution ” in the Ukraine .
But now the CIA and its assortment of supporting organizations seems to have run out of color choices .
How else can one explain that their latest attempt in Belarus is called a “ slipper revolution ” .
No , the Guardian , which published the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ later changed it , did not come up with that stupid moniker by itself .
The U.S. State Department funded Belsat.eu TV station was the first to mention slippers in a picture caption on May 31 .
On June 6 , the U.S. government funded RFE/RL was the first to use it in a headline .
Yesterday the U.S. government and NATO funded Atlantic Council mentioned slippers in a Belarus piece .
The Washington DC based and funded Center for European Policy Analysis avoided the ‘ slippers , ’ but its yesterday published @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
When these western government funded organizations and media come up with explainer pieces about one not-yet-westernized country at the very same time , one can be sure that something is up .
Someone has obviously briefed these folks .
So what is up with Belarus ?
The country has an interesting geographic position squeezed between NATO aligned countries and Russia .
With some 9.5 million inhabitants , Belarus is rather small .
Since 1994 , it has been ruled by President Alexander Lukashenko , who has stuck to Soviet-era policies .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ exports heavy machinery .
Large parts of the economy are still state owned and support the local towns and cities .
The country thereby avoided the economic catastrophe that happened in Russia under Boris Yeltsin , but it also missed out on the economic development that happened in Russia after President Vladimir Putin took over .
Since 1995 Russia and Belarus have had an agreement to form a Union State : The treaty , signed in 1999 , also includes common defense and economic integration , as well as a Union parliament and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at integrating Belarus ( and other former Soviet Union states ) with Russia .
But within a full fledged Union State , Lukashenko ’ s personal role would be largely diminished .
He has dragged his feet whenever Russia made attempts to push for further steps towards it .
Russia has subsidized the price of natural gas and crude oil it delivers to Belarus .
The oil is only partly used within the country itself .
Belarus refines it and sells the resulting products for hard currencies into western markets .
The subsidized @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rent ’ paid by Russia to keep Belarus near to its side .
In late 2019 , Lukashenko and Putin met for a summit in Sochi .
Putin again pressed for more progress towards forming the Union State while Lukashenko continued to drag his feet .
In consequence , Russia cut the ‘ integration rent ’ by demanding higher prices for its oil .
Back from Sochi and faced with a diminishing economy , Lukashenko changed tack .
He openly courted the U.S. and other western countries and suddenly emphasized Belorussian sovereignty .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ Lukashenko has long balanced keeping Russia close but not too close .
He rarely throws up any roadblocks to Russian policies .
But Lukashenko also has resisted the Kremlin ’ s push for the two countries to form a unified state — something they agreed to in 1999 .
… So when they failed in December to agree on a new price for oil Moscow sells to Minsk , Russia temporarily cut the supply .
Lukashenko then vowed to diversify Belarus ’ s oil suppliers .
He delivered by purchasing shipments from Azerbaijan @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the past five months , capitalizing on a coronavirus-induced shock to oil prices .
… Pompeo visited Minsk in early February , when he first offered to sell American oil “ at a competitive price.
” It marked the first trip to Belarus by a top U.S. diplomat since Lukashenko took power .
Then in April , the two countries formally reestablished diplomatic relations when Julie Fisher , a top State Department official for Europe , was named ambassador to Belarus — a position that had been vacant for more than a decade @ @ @ @ @ @ @ buying oil elsewhere worked to a certain extent .
In May , Russia again agreed to deliver oil to Belarus but only half the amount of previous years .
But to get nearer to the ‘ west ’ also has a price .
A U.S. ambassador in town means that regime change plots are never far away .
The sudden attention that Belarus now receives from U.S. aligned organizations is a sure sign that one is underway .
On August 9 Belarus will hold presidential elections .
Lukashenko will do his best to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ launched over controversial elections .
The results are publicly put into doubt even before the election begins .
When the results finally arrive , western media will claim that they diverge from the expectation it created , and therefore must have been faked .
People will be pushed into the streets to protest .
To increase the chaos , some sharp shooters may be put to work to fire at the police and at protesters like it was done in Ukraine .
The revolt ends when it is flogged down or when the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Last year the U.S. National Endowment for Democracy financed at least 34 projects and organizations in Belarus .
The U.S. does not do that out of charity but to put its finger on the scale .
The U.S. seems to have at least two candidates in the race .
The first one is the Navalny-like , rabble rousing ‘ slipper man ’ : Two candidates can probably be taken seriously : Babariko , as former head of a Gazprom bank , is presumed to be Russia ’ s favorite candidate while Tsepkalo @ @ @ @ @ @ @ would like to see in office .
Both have quite similar neoliberal programs , which argue for privatization and a more open economy .
Lukashenko may take steps to remove candidates who could endanger his position .
Police say they found $ 900,000 in a house owned by the ‘ video blogger ’ Tsikhanouski .
He is also accused of attacking police at an unsanctioned rally .
Last week Babariko ’ s former bank was raided over accusations of a tax evasion scheme .
Tsepkalo was fired as head of the Belarus Hi-Tech @ @ @ @ @ @ @ enrich himself .
There are several obvious fraud cases that could be raised against him .
The economy of Belarus is likely to shrink this year .
Lukashenko ’ s response to the Covid-19 epidemic has been as bad as Trump ’ s ( ER : not according to other reports , and we don ’ t buy that Trump ’ s reponse was bad ) .
The state income from refining and selling products from subsidized Russian oil is down .
There are reasons to vote him out of office .
But @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to stay .
The GDP per person in Belarus is around $ 20,000 ( PPP ) .
That is double the number of its neighbor Ukraine and some 30 % lower than in Russia .
Income equality in Belarus is relatively high .
Social security and services function to a significant degree .
It is not at all reasonable to claim that Lukashenko could not be a legitimate election winner .
A color revolution , as it is now in preparation , would probably end up destroying the country .
Should Belarus fall @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ sponsored candidate , its future would be bleak .
The state owned industries would be privatized for pennies , and much of the Soviet Union like social system , which still works well for most of its people , would be dismantled .
Economic relations with Russia would suffer .
In the end , Belarus would probably be worse off than even the Ukraine .
The long term future of the country lies with Russia , which has the resources and interests to manage it well .
The economies of both countries @ @ @ @ @ @ @ speak the same language .
They have a common history and the same religion .
Russia has a great deal of interest keep Belarus within its realm .
It is difficult to predict how it will react should a U.S. directed color revolution proceed .

U.S.-engineered attempts to overthrow a foreign government by stirring civil arrests are usually named after a color or, at times, a flower. Thus we had an “rose revolution” in Georgia, a “green movement” in Iran, and an “orange revolution” in the Ukraine.
But now the CIA and its assortment of supporting organizations seems to have run out of color choices. How else can one explain that their latest attempt in Belarus is called a “slipper revolution”.
No, the Guardian, which published the ‘Slipper revolution’ headline today but later changed it, did not come up with that stupid moniker by itself.
The U.S. State Department funded Belsat.eu TV station was the first to mention slippers in a picture caption on May 31.
On June 6, the U.S. government funded RFE/RL was the first to use it in a headline.
Yesterday the U.S. government and NATO funded Atlantic Council mentioned slippers in a Belarus piece. The Washington DC based and funded Center for European Policy Analysis avoided the ‘slippers,’ but its yesterday published piece on Belarus covers the same ground.
When these western government funded organizations and media come up with explainer pieces about one not-yet-westernized country at the very same time, one can be sure that something is up. Someone has obviously briefed these folks.
So what is up with Belarus?
The country has an interesting geographic position squeezed between NATO aligned countries and Russia.
With some 9.5 million inhabitants, Belarus is rather small. Since 1994, it has been ruled by President Alexander Lukashenko, who has stuck to Soviet-era policies. The country has a well-developed industry that mainly exports heavy machinery. Large parts of the economy are still state owned and support the local towns and cities. The country thereby avoided the economic catastrophe that happened in Russia under Boris Yeltsin, but it also missed out on the economic development that happened in Russia after President Vladimir Putin took over.
Since 1995 Russia and Belarus have had an agreement to form a Union State:
The Union State does provide citizens of Russia and Belarus the right to work and permanently settle in either country without formal immigration procedures otherwise mandatory for foreign nationals. They retain their national passports and other identification papers.
The treaty, signed in 1999, also includes common defense and economic integration, as well as a Union parliament and other institutions. It is essentially aimed at integrating Belarus (and other former Soviet Union states) with Russia. But within a full fledged Union State, Lukashenko’s personal role would be largely diminished. He has dragged his feet whenever Russia made attempts to push for further steps towards it.
Russia has subsidized the price of natural gas and crude oil it delivers to Belarus. The oil is only partly used within the country itself. Belarus refines it and sells the resulting products for hard currencies into western markets. The subsidized oil was until recently the ‘integration rent’ paid by Russia to keep Belarus near to its side.
In late 2019, Lukashenko and Putin met for a summit in Sochi. Putin again pressed for more progress towards forming the Union State while Lukashenko continued to drag his feet. In consequence, Russia cut the ‘integration rent’ by demanding higher prices for its oil.
Back from Sochi and faced with a diminishing economy, Lukashenko changed tack. He openly courted the U.S. and other western countries and suddenly emphasized Belorussian sovereignty. He even bought U.S. shale oil:
Lukashenko has long balanced keeping Russia close but not too close. He rarely throws up any roadblocks to Russian policies. But Lukashenko also has resisted the Kremlin’s push for the two countries to form a unified state — something they agreed to in 1999.
…
So when they failed in December to agree on a new price for oil Moscow sells to Minsk, Russia temporarily cut the supply. Lukashenko then vowed to diversify Belarus’s oil suppliers. He delivered by purchasing shipments from Azerbaijan, Norway and Saudi Arabia all in the past five months, capitalizing on a coronavirus-induced shock to oil prices.
…
Pompeo visited Minsk in early February, when he first offered to sell American oil “at a competitive price.” It marked the first trip to Belarus by a top U.S. diplomat since Lukashenko took power. Then in April, the two countries formally reestablished diplomatic relations when Julie Fisher, a top State Department official for Europe, was named ambassador to Belarus — a position that had been vacant for more than a decade.
Lukashenko’s unsustainable stunt of buying oil elsewhere worked to a certain extent. In May, Russia again agreed to deliver oil to Belarus but only half the amount of previous years.
But to get nearer to the ‘west’ also has a price. A U.S. ambassador in town means that regime change plots are never far away. The sudden attention that Belarus now receives from U.S. aligned organizations is a sure sign that one is underway.
On August 9 Belarus will hold presidential elections. Lukashenko will do his best to win again.
Color revolutions are usually launched over controversial elections. The results are publicly put into doubt even before the election begins. When the results finally arrive, western media will claim that they diverge from the expectation it created, and therefore must have been faked. People will be pushed into the streets to protest. To increase the chaos, some sharp shooters may be put to work to fire at the police and at protesters like it was done in Ukraine. The revolt ends when it is flogged down or when the U.S. favorite candidate is put into place.
Last year the U.S. National Endowment for Democracy financed at least 34 projects and organizations in Belarus. The U.S. does not do that out of charity but to put its finger on the scale.
The U.S. seems to have at least two candidates in the race. The first one is the Navalny-like, rabble rousing ‘slipper man’:
During the early stages of the current election campaign, thousands have been queuing up in towns and cities to sign petitions backing the candidacies of Lukashenko’s main rivals. Candidates must collect 100,000 signatures by early July in order to be eligible for the ballot. Some anti-Lukashenko protesters have begun brandishing slippers in response to popular YouTube vlogger and presidential hopeful Syarhey Tsikhanouski’s call to squash the Belarus president “like a cockroach”. This has led to tentative talk of a looming “slipper revolution” in line with the branded protest movements that have succeeded in toppling authoritarian regimes elsewhere in the former Soviet Union.
Two candidates can probably be taken seriously:
Viktor Babariko is the former head of Belgazprombank, while Valery Tsepkalo is a former senior Lukashenko administration official who served as Belarusian ambassador to the United States before more recently heading up the Belarus Hi-Tech Park, one of the largest IT clusters in Central and Eastern Europe. Unlike the puppets and outsiders who are generally permitted to run against Lukashenko, Babariko and Tsepkalo have the necessary seniority and establishment experience to be taken seriously as alternatives to the current political status quo.
Babariko, as former head of a Gazprom bank, is presumed to be Russia’s favorite candidate while Tsepkalo is likely the one who the U.S. would like to see in office. Both have quite similar neoliberal programs, which argue for privatization and a more open economy.
Lukashenko may take steps to remove candidates who could endanger his position. Police say they found $900,000 in a house owned by the ‘video blogger’ Tsikhanouski. He is also accused of attacking police at an unsanctioned rally. Last week Babariko’s former bank was raided over accusations of a tax evasion scheme. Tsepkalo was fired as head of the Belarus Hi-Tech Park after he had used it to enrich himself. There are several obvious fraud cases that could be raised against him.
The economy of Belarus is likely to shrink this year. Lukashenko’s response to the Covid-19 epidemic has been as bad as Trump’s (ER: not according to other reports, and we don’t buy that Trump’s reponse was bad). The state income from refining and selling products from subsidized Russian oil is down.
There are reasons to vote him out of office. But there are also reasons for wanting him to stay.
The GDP per person in Belarus is around $20,000 (PPP). That is double the number of its neighbor Ukraine and some 30% lower than in Russia. Income equality in Belarus is relatively high. Social security and services function to a significant degree.
It is not at all reasonable to claim that Lukashenko could not be a legitimate election winner.
A color revolution, as it is now in preparation, would probably end up destroying the country.
Should Belarus fall into the hand of a ‘western’ sponsored candidate, its future would be bleak. The state owned industries would be privatized for pennies, and much of the Soviet Union like social system, which still works well for most of its people, would be dismantled. Economic relations with Russia would suffer. In the end, Belarus would probably be worse off than even the Ukraine.
The long term future of the country lies with Russia, which has the resources and interests to manage it well. The economies of both countries are already highly integrated. Their people speak the same language. They have a common history and the same religion.
Russia has a great deal of interest keep Belarus within its realm. It is difficult to predict how it will react should a U.S. directed color revolution proceed.
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