nationalobserver--2020-10-30--Canadian scientists find markers in blood they believe are linked to severe COVID-19

Canadian immunologists say they ’ re finding telltale markers in patients ' blood that help predict the severity of COVID-19 and could lead to more targeted treatments .
David Kelvin , a Dalhousie University professor of immunology , is co-author of a study that draws links between severity of the illness and the presence of large amounts of the virus 's genetic material — ribonucleic acid , or RNA — in blood samples .
He and Spanish scientist Jesus Bermejo-Martin of the Institute of Biomedical Investigation of Salamanca led a group of 36 medical researchers tracking patients coming into Spanish @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for about 30 so-called `` biomarkers ” in their blood plasma .
The work occurred during the first wave of the pandemic in the spring .
Though less publicized than research on vaccines , biomarkers are seen as key to tracking and predicting illness , and they can identify which proteins are being released that prevent the immune system from coping .
• CNN 's Jim Scuitto on 'The Madman Theory , ' Canada and Donald Trump • Donald Trump has few friends left in Canada .
What happens if he wins ?
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ online and is currently in the final stages of peer review for the journal Critical Care , concludes that the presence of the virus 's RNA in blood is `` associated to critical illness . ''
Kelvin says the work could lead to partnering with a pharmaceutical firm to develop standard and rapid blood-testing looking for the genetic marker in patients who test positive .
`` A test is what we 're hoping for , '' he said in an interview this week .
`` We need to develop ways to quickly know @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , who should go in ( intensive care ) and who is well enough to go back home . ''
While North American hospitals often do test for the presence of the virus ’ s genetic material in the blood of severely ill COVID-19 patients , Kelvin says more rapid , standardized tests are needed for patients when they arrive in hospital .
`` We 're facing a huge surge in patients , and there are a limited number of beds , '' he said .
`` If we want to allocate those @ @ @ @ @ @ @ those who have this genetic material circulating in their blood . ''
The article says the Spanish-based study is among the largest of its kind in the world to date , with 250 patients included — 50 outpatients , 100 patients hospitalized in various wards and 100 critically ill patients .
Blood samples were collected within 24 hours of patients being admitted , with a series of followup tests .
Canadian immunologists say telltale markers in patients ' blood can help predict the severity of COVID-19 and could lead to more targeted treatments @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The paper found 78 per cent of critically ill patients had the genetic material as a biomarker , compared to just a quarter of the general ward patients and two per cent of outpatients .
Kelvin said his study also noted the presence of three molecules associated with repressing the immune system in the critically ill patients studied , a finding that other scientists can pursue .
There seemed to be a link between the trio of molecules – Interleukin-10 , Interleukin-1 RA and PDL-1 – and the presence of the virus 's @ @ @ @ @ @ @ said .
The molecules occur naturally in the body and are used clinically to treat autoimmune diseases .
The detection of the molecules in critically sick patients comes on the heels of similar findings by British scientists .
Immunologist Mark Cameron , who worked with Kelvin studying the 2003 SARS outbreak in Toronto , says the findings are helpful on several levels .
In the short term , the linking of the virus 's RNA with critical illness helps clinicians in diagnosing severity of the illness , said Cameron , a Canadian based @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Ohio .
Meanwhile , identifying proteins that signal the immune system is n't reacting properly can lead to targeted therapies , he added .
`` By testing for and identifying biomarkers , you can then find treatments or drugs that can rebalance our immune system , ” Cameron said in an interview .
“ If we find a biomarker that 's up or down and is associated with good or bad outcomes , you have something you can change that can push you towards health rather than worsening illness , '' he @ @ @ @ @ @ @ treatment for severe COVID-19 is steroids , but his hope is the biomarkers will allow for more precise therapies .
`` A steroid is like a sledgehammer .
.
.
.
It tamps down the entire immune response and may decrease the things we need in our immune system to fight the virus .
So , you want more specific treatments , '' he said .
His team is studying the early biomarkers present in 50 patients who have just been infected in nursing homes in Cleveland .
Like Kelvin , his early @ @ @ @ @ @ @ RNA of the virus in patients who are ill , though he did n't quantify the amounts .
Cameron said testing systems used in the study are extremely precise , but the goal will be to create cheaper methods that can produce results in minutes or hours .
Asked if the work will become irrelevant if a vaccine is found , Cameron said the study of biomarkers will remain crucial in years to come to monitor COVID-19 in patients and target their treatment .
`` This will be needed five months from now @ @ @ @ @ @ @ '' he said .
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 30 , 2020 .

Canadian immunologists say they’re finding telltale markers in patients' blood that help predict the severity of COVID-19 and could lead to more targeted treatments. David Kelvin, a Dalhousie University professor of immunology, is co-author of a study that draws links between severity of the illness and the presence of large amounts of the virus's genetic material — ribonucleic acid, or RNA — in blood samples. He and Spanish scientist Jesus Bermejo-Martin of the Institute of Biomedical Investigation of Salamanca led a group of 36 medical researchers tracking patients coming into Spanish hospital wards and ERs, and looking for about 30 so-called "biomarkers” in their blood plasma. The work occurred during the first wave of the pandemic in the spring. Though less publicized than research on vaccines, biomarkers are seen as key to tracking and predicting illness, and they can identify which proteins are being released that prevent the immune system from coping.
The study, which has been published online and is currently in the final stages of peer review for the journal Critical Care, concludes that the presence of the virus's RNA in blood is "associated to critical illness." Kelvin says the work could lead to partnering with a pharmaceutical firm to develop standard and rapid blood-testing looking for the genetic marker in patients who test positive. Billion-dollar land deals in Ontario raise corruption suspicions "A test is what we're hoping for," he said in an interview this week. "We need to develop ways to quickly know who should be placed in a ward, who should go in (intensive care) and who is well enough to go back home."
While North American hospitals often do test for the presence of the virus’s genetic material in the blood of severely ill COVID-19 patients, Kelvin says more rapid, standardized tests are needed for patients when they arrive in hospital. Canadian immunologists say telltale markers in patients' blood can help predict the severity of COVID-19 and could lead to more targeted treatments. #COVIDtreatment #COVID-19 #coronavirus "We're facing a huge surge in patients, and there are a limited number of beds," he said. "If we want to allocate those beds, we should tie them to those who have this genetic material circulating in their blood." The article says the Spanish-based study is among the largest of its kind in the world to date, with 250 patients included — 50 outpatients, 100 patients hospitalized in various wards and 100 critically ill patients. Blood samples were collected within 24 hours of patients being admitted, with a series of followup tests. The paper found 78 per cent of critically ill patients had the genetic material as a biomarker, compared to just a quarter of the general ward patients and two per cent of outpatients. Kelvin said his study also noted the presence of three molecules associated with repressing the immune system in the critically ill patients studied, a finding that other scientists can pursue.
There seemed to be a link between the trio of molecules – Interleukin-10, Interleukin-1 RA and PDL-1 – and the presence of the virus's genetic material in the blood, he said. The molecules occur naturally in the body and are used clinically to treat autoimmune diseases. The detection of the molecules in critically sick patients comes on the heels of similar findings by British scientists. Immunologist Mark Cameron, who worked with Kelvin studying the 2003 SARS outbreak in Toronto, says the findings are helpful on several levels.


nationalobserver--2020-11-01--Quebec City stabbing suspect wanted to hurt as many victims as possible: police

The suspect behind a deadly sword attack in Quebec City intended to harm as many people as possible , police said on Sunday hours after the deadly rampage that killed two people and injured five others .
Quebec City Police Chief Robert Pigeon shared some details of the harrowing Halloween night attack at a morning news conference .
Pigeon alleged a man dressed in a medieval costume began swinging a Japanese-style sword at randomly chosen victims before 10:30 p.m. on Saturday .
The attack went on for nearly 2.5 hours , he said , while police pursued him throughout the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The suspect was arrested shortly before 1:00 a.m. on Sunday and is expected to appear in court later in the day , he added .
`` Last night we were thrust into a night of horror when a 24-year-old man who does not live in Quebec City came here with the clear intention of taking as many victims as possible , '' Pigeon said .
• CNN 's Jim Scuitto on 'The Madman Theory , ' Canada and Donald Trump • Thousands of new COVID-19 cases in central Canada The police chief said @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of Montreal , but offered no additional details about his identity .
He said the alleged attacker has no known links to terrorist groups and that police believe his motivations appear to be personal in nature .
Information on the victims was similarly scarce .
Pigeon did not release the names of any of those killed or wounded in the attack , saying only they were residents of Quebec City .
He said some of those injured suffered lacerations he described as serious , but said no one is in life-threatening condition .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ the victims and their families , with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau saying in a tweet that his `` heart breaks '' for them .
Conservative Party leader Erin O'Toole also said he and his wife were saddened to hear about the events and offered their condolences to the victims and those who were injured , as well as their families .
The suspect behind a deadly sword attack in Quebec City intended to harm as many people as possible , police said on Sunday , November 1 , 2020 , hours after the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ injured five others .
Quebec Premier Francois Legault extended his condolences to the victims ' families , saying in an early-morning tweet that the entire province had woken up after a `` night of horror . ''
`` I do n't have the words to describe such a tragedy , '' Legault said .
During the news conference on Sunday morning , Quebec City Mayor Regis Labeaume said the attack has shaken the city , which is still recovering from a deadly shooting at a local mosque in 2017 .
`` We 're @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Labeaume said .
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 1 , 2020 .

The suspect behind a deadly sword attack in Quebec City intended to harm as many people as possible, police said on Sunday hours after the deadly rampage that killed two people and injured five others.
Quebec City Police Chief Robert Pigeon shared some details of the harrowing Halloween night attack at a morning news conference.
Pigeon alleged a man dressed in a medieval costume began swinging a Japanese-style sword at randomly chosen victims before 10:30 p.m. on Saturday. The attack went on for nearly 2.5 hours, he said, while police pursued him throughout the city's downtown core on foot.
The suspect was arrested shortly before 1:00 a.m. on Sunday and is expected to appear in court later in the day, he added.
"Last night we were thrust into a night of horror when a 24-year-old man who does not live in Quebec City came here with the clear intention of taking as many victims as possible," Pigeon said.


nationalobserver--2020-11-01--Thousands of new COVID-19 cases in central Canada

Ontario and Quebec are both reporting more than one thousand new COVID-19 cases , while farther west in Manitoba , officials again reported hundreds of new cases as its capital city gets set for tighter restrictions .
Ontario reported 1,015 new cases on Saturday , marking the second time this week the count has surpassed the one-thousand mark .
Quebec reported 1,064 new cases , and Manitoba said it had 349 new positive tests to report .
While Manitoba 's new case count was down from the record-smashing 480 on Friday , it 's still much higher than the province @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Thursday .
Starting Monday , bars and restaurants in Winnipeg can open only for pickup or takeout while facilities such as movie theatres , museums and libraries must close .
• CNN 's Jim Scuitto on 'The Madman Theory , ' Canada and Donald Trump • Quebec City stabbing suspect wanted to hurt as many victims as possible : police The measures , along with others , will last two weeks and will be reassessed at that time .
Business in the St. Norbert Hotel bar in Winnipeg on Saturday was `` average @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , '' president Gerald Lambert said , although sales at the hotel 's beer store were brisk as people appeared to be getting set to drink at home .
`` There 's other facilities that have far worse reports that are still allowed to be open , albeit at smaller capacity , '' Lambert said , echoing the frustration many in his industry have expressed at the provincial government .
`` In two weeks , I do n't know if this is going to make a difference or not . ''
But Premier @ @ @ @ @ @ @ others who feel the new restrictions need to go further , with one group placing dozens of cardboard tombstones on the grass median outside his home .
The Halloween-themed protest included epithets on on the tombstones indicating people were dying from Manitoba 's reopening plan .
Ontario and Quebec are both reporting more than one thousand new COVID-19 cases , while farther west in Manitoba , officials again reported hundreds of new cases as its capital city gets set for tighter restrictions .
“ I respect the right of any Manitobans to peacefully @ @ @ @ @ @ @ do so to do so safely to protect their health and that of others as well , ” Pallister said in a statement issued Saturday .
Manitoba also reported four new deaths from COVID 19 .
Quebec reported 15 and Ontario reported nine .
Federal Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland , meanwhile , tweeted Saturday that she 'd just gotten a COVID-19 test after receiving an exposure notification from the COVID Alert app and is waiting for the results .
`` I am isolating at home while I wait for the results of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ My thanks to our excellent health care professionals . ''
The COVID Alert app notifies users when someone who they 've been in contact with tests positive for COVID-19 .
Canada 's chief public health officer , Dr. Theresa Tam , stressed again Saturday that it 's important to continue with individual precautions to keep everyone safe .

Ontario and Quebec are both reporting more than one thousand new COVID-19 cases, while farther west in Manitoba, officials again reported hundreds of new cases as its capital city gets set for tighter restrictions. Ontario reported 1,015 new cases on Saturday, marking the second time this week the count has surpassed the one-thousand mark. Quebec reported 1,064 new cases, and Manitoba said it had 349 new positive tests to report. While Manitoba's new case count was down from the record-smashing 480 on Friday, it's still much higher than the province's previous new-case record of 193 set Thursday. Starting Monday, bars and restaurants in Winnipeg can open only for pickup or takeout while facilities such as movie theatres, museums and libraries must close.
The measures, along with others, will last two weeks and will be reassessed at that time. Business in the St. Norbert Hotel bar in Winnipeg on Saturday was "average as it gets through these COVID times," president Gerald Lambert said, although sales at the hotel's beer store were brisk as people appeared to be getting set to drink at home. Billion-dollar land deals in Ontario raise corruption suspicions "There's other facilities that have far worse reports that are still allowed to be open, albeit at smaller capacity," Lambert said, echoing the frustration many in his industry have expressed at the provincial government.
"In two weeks, I don't know if this is going to make a difference or not." Ontario and Quebec are both reporting more than one thousand new COVID-19 cases, while farther west in Manitoba, officials again reported hundreds of new cases as its capital city gets set for tighter restrictions. But Premier Brian Pallister also faced pressure Saturday from others who feel the new restrictions need to go further, with one group placing dozens of cardboard tombstones on the grass median outside his home. The Halloween-themed protest included epithets on on the tombstones indicating people were dying from Manitoba's reopening plan. “I respect the right of any Manitobans to peacefully protest and encourage all who choose to do so to do so safely to protect their health and that of others as well,” Pallister said in a statement issued Saturday. Manitoba also reported four new deaths from COVID 19. Quebec reported 15 and Ontario reported nine.
Federal Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland, meanwhile, tweeted Saturday that she'd just gotten a COVID-19 test after receiving an exposure notification from the COVID Alert app and is waiting for the results. "I am isolating at home while I wait for the results of the test," she wrote. "My thanks to our excellent health care professionals." The COVID Alert app notifies users when someone who they've been in contact with tests positive for COVID-19.


nationalobserver--2020-11-02--'It's unbelievable': Residents remember victims of deadly Quebec City sword attack

Residents of Quebec 's picturesque capital grappled with grief and shock on Sunday as they mourned the deaths of a beloved neighbourhood hairdresser and a well-respected museum employee slain in what police describe as a deliberate sword attack targeting random strangers .
Impromptu vigils and makeshift memorials sprang up near the stretch of Old Quebec City where police allege a young man went on a 2.5-hour rampage wielding a katana-style sword .
Hairdresser Suzanne Clermont , 61 , and 56-year-old museum employee Francois Duchesne died in the Halloween-night attack that also left five others injured .
Residents huddled outside Clermont @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , where they placed a box filled with flowers and a stuffed cat at her front door .
One neighbour said Clermont was out smoking a cigarette when the stabbing took place .
“ She was my friend .
She and her partner Jacques were a lovely couple , ” said Lucie Painchaud , a resident of the area for 16 years .
“ It ’ s unbelievable , I can ’ t still compute . ''
• CO2 emissions from forestry are a surging climate threat .
Ottawa needs to act • @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Canada • Majority want feds to move now on inequality , racism , climate change : poll The horror of Saturday night 's events was also setting in at the nearby Musee National des Beaux-Arts du Quebec , where Duchesne was described as a much-loved employee .
`` We are all in shock , '' spokeswoman Linda Tremblay said in a statement , describing the attack as an `` inexplicable and unfair tragedy . ''
Police offered only a handful of details about the late-night attack that played out in the narrow cobblestone @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tourist destination packed with historic buildings and landmarks .
Quebec City police Chief Robert Pigeon said the suspect had been dressed in `` medieval '' garb and swung a katana-like sword at randomly chosen victims in an attack that stretched into the early hours of Sunday morning .
`` Last night we were thrust into a night of horror when a 24-year-old man who does not live in Quebec City came here with the clear intention of taking as many victims as possible , '' Pigeon said during a Sunday morning news conference @ @ @ @ @ @ @ scene at around 10:30 on Saturday night and proceeded to pursue a suspect through the narrow streets of Old Quebec until his arrest shortly before 1 a.m. Hairdresser Suzanne Clermont , 61 , and 56-year-old museum employee Francois Duchesne died in the Halloween-night attack in # QuebecCity that also left five others injured .
Carl Girouard has been charged with two counts of first-degree murder and five counts of attempted murder in relation to the attack , according to the Quebec Crown prosecutor 's office .
Girouard appeared in front of a judge @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is slated to be back in court on Thursday .
The identities of the five people injured in the attack are protected by a publication ban .
Pigeon said the suspect , who hails from the north shore of Montreal , has no known links to terrorist groups .
Police believe his motivations appear to be personal in nature , he added without providing further details .
He also said the alleged attacker has no known criminal record , but shared plans to commit this type of act in an unspecified `` medical @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The bustling sector of Old Quebec where the rampage unfolded was quiet Sunday , with large portions blocked off as part of the massive police probe .
The police chief noted the investigation involved around 25 different crime scenes .
Some residents out for their morning stroll said they heard the sirens and could see flashing police lights on Saturday night .
Stanislas Thomassin , who lives just 300 metres from where one of the attacks took place , said a friend noted alerts on social media on Saturday night but they didn @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ This morning , I got a note from a friend in France in a panic about me , that ’ s when I realized the horror of what had happened , ” Thomassin said .
“ It ’ s normally very calm , very peaceful in Old Quebec.
” Condolences poured in from across Canada for the victims and their families , with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau saying in a tweet that his `` heart breaks '' for them .
To the people of Quebec City , and to all Quebecers : @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Our hearts go out to the families of François Duchesne and Suzanne Clermont , and to everyone affected by this terrible tragedy .
https : //t.co/3Cxgxdh48z — Justin Trudeau ( @ JustinTrudeau ) November 1 , 2020 Federal Conservative Party leader Erin O'Toole and Jagmeet Singh , leader of the New Democratic Party , also offered their condolences , while Quebec Premier Francois Legault said the entire province had woken up after a `` night of horror . ''
`` I do n't have the words to describe such a tragedy , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tweet .
The flag outside the provincial legislature was also lowered to half-mast .
Quebec City Mayor Regis Labeaume said the attack has shaken the city , which is still recovering from a deadly shooting at a local mosque in 2017 .
`` We 're going through a tough situation , '' Labeaume said during the morning police briefing .
Back in Old Quebec , the local city councillor , Jean Rousseau , said Clermont 's death had left residents shell shocked .
Community members had gotten closer during the COVID-19 pandemic , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ nightly walks .
“ It ’ s a tightly knit community , everybody knows everybody here , ” Rousseau said .
“ Clermont was well appreciated and everybody liked her.
” Carol Proulx , co-owner of a clothing store next door to the salon where Clermont worked , described the hairdresser as a `` friendly woman . ''
Proulx also knew Duchesne for many years and said he was shocked by the attack .
`` He 's someone who had a great career and was well loved by those who knew him , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ us all , '' he said of the tragedy .
`` Quebec is a nice big city , but we see that at the same time , it 's a small village . ''
—With files from Jillian Kestler-D'Amours in Montreal and Tara Deschamps in Toronto This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 1 , 2020 .

Residents of Quebec's picturesque capital grappled with grief and shock on Sunday as they mourned the deaths of a beloved neighbourhood hairdresser and a well-respected museum employee slain in what police describe as a deliberate sword attack targeting random strangers. Impromptu vigils and makeshift memorials sprang up near the stretch of Old Quebec City where police allege a young man went on a 2.5-hour rampage wielding a katana-style sword. Hairdresser Suzanne Clermont, 61, and 56-year-old museum employee Francois Duchesne died in the Halloween-night attack that also left five others injured. Residents huddled outside Clermont's home on picturesque Des Remparts Street, where they placed a box filled with flowers and a stuffed cat at her front door. One neighbour said Clermont was out smoking a cigarette when the stabbing took place. “She was my friend. She and her partner Jacques were a lovely couple,” said Lucie Painchaud, a resident of the area for 16 years. “It’s unbelievable, I can’t still compute."
The horror of Saturday night's events was also setting in at the nearby Musee National des Beaux-Arts du Quebec, where Duchesne was described as a much-loved employee. "We are all in shock," spokeswoman Linda Tremblay said in a statement, describing the attack as an "inexplicable and unfair tragedy." Billion-dollar land deals in Ontario raise corruption suspicions Police offered only a handful of details about the late-night attack that played out in the narrow cobblestone streets of Old Quebec, a popular tourist destination packed with historic buildings and landmarks.
Quebec City police Chief Robert Pigeon said the suspect had been dressed in "medieval" garb and swung a katana-like sword at randomly chosen victims in an attack that stretched into the early hours of Sunday morning. Hairdresser Suzanne Clermont, 61, and 56-year-old museum employee Francois Duchesne died in the Halloween-night attack in #QuebecCity that also left five others injured. "Last night we were thrust into a night of horror when a 24-year-old man who does not live in Quebec City came here with the clear intention of taking as many victims as possible," Pigeon said during a Sunday morning news conference. Police were first summoned to the scene at around 10:30 on Saturday night and proceeded to pursue a suspect through the narrow streets of Old Quebec until his arrest shortly before 1 a.m. Carl Girouard has been charged with two counts of first-degree murder and five counts of attempted murder in relation to the attack, according to the Quebec Crown prosecutor's office. Girouard appeared in front of a judge via video conference on Sunday afternoon and is slated to be back in court on Thursday.
The identities of the five people injured in the attack are protected by a publication ban. Pigeon said the suspect, who hails from the north shore of Montreal, has no known links to terrorist groups. Police believe his motivations appear to be personal in nature, he added without providing further details. He also said the alleged attacker has no known criminal record, but shared plans to commit this type of act in an unspecified "medical contest" about five years ago.


nationalobserver--2020-11-02--MacKay says he won't run in next federal election following failed Tory leadership bid

OTTAWA — Former justice minister Peter MacKay says he won ’ t be on the ballot in the next federal election .
Two months ago , MacKay finished second to Erin O ’ Toole in the Conservative leadership contest and had been spending the fall pondering his political future .
He moved back to his hometown of New Glasgow , N.S.
, in September after five years in Toronto as a private-sector lawyer .
The Central Nova Conservative riding association was pushing him to run again for MP in the riding he represented for almost 20 years .
But MacKay @ @ @ @ @ @ @ '' decision not to resume his political career .
• CO2 emissions from forestry are a surging climate threat .
Ottawa needs to act • Thousands of new COVID-19 cases in central Canada • Majority want feds to move now on inequality , racism , climate change : poll He and his wife , human-rights activist Nazanin Afshin-Jam , have two children : seven-year-old Kian and five-year-old Valentia .
`` After spending almost nine months as a leadership candidate in the middle of this pandemic , much of it away from my family @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be to return to both , '' MacKay said .
He was the MP for Central Nova from 1997 until 2015 , when he chose not to run again .
The riding is represented by Liberal Sean Fraser , who won in both 2015 and 2019 .
MacKay says he will continue to support O ’ Toole and the Conservative party in any way he can , it just won ’ t be as a candidate .
Former justice minister Peter MacKay says he has made the `` difficult '' decision not to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the Conservative leadership race earlier this year .
# cdnpoli In a written statement , O ’ Toole thanked MacKay for his `` decades of commitment '' to the party .
`` Peter ’ s devotion to the Conservative party , which he co-founded , is strong and I am grateful for his support as we work together to win the next election , '' said O ’ Toole .
MacKay was the leader of the Progressive Conservatives for six months in 2003 before the party was merged with the Canadian Alliance @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Canada .
He still has about $ 1 million in debt to repay from his leadership campaign .
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 2 , 2020

OTTAWA — Former justice minister Peter MacKay says he won’t be on the ballot in the next federal election.
Two months ago, MacKay finished second to Erin O’Toole in the Conservative leadership contest and had been spending the fall pondering his political future.
He moved back to his hometown of New Glasgow, N.S., in September after five years in Toronto as a private-sector lawyer.
The Central Nova Conservative riding association was pushing him to run again for MP in the riding he represented for almost 20 years.
But MacKay says he has made the "difficult" decision not to resume his political career.


nationalobserver--2020-11-02--Americans brace for impact as a seismic election day approaches

George Washington 's `` last great experiment '' faces an existential litmus test beginning Tuesday as the bristling polarities of an energized , outraged and well-armed body politic finish weighing in on who should be the next American president .
Theirs may not be the final word .
Be it because of Donald Trump , COVID-19 or Black Lives Matter , Americans seem all in , for once , on the 2020 vote : more than 92 million ballots have already been cast , two-thirds of the total turnout from four years ago .
Thanks to the pandemic , mail-in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ takes time to count those votes , and Trump — who sows baseless fears of electoral fraud at every turn — has repeatedly signalled he 'll take his battle with Joe Biden from the campaign trail to the courtroom .
The Texas Supreme Court on Sunday rejected a two-pronged GOP effort to get 127,000 drive-thru votes thrown out in largely Democratic Harris County , a challenge that has also been filed in federal court .
• CO2 emissions from forestry are a surging climate threat .
Ottawa needs to act • Thousands of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Majority want feds to move now on inequality , racism , climate change : poll Republicans also tried unsuccessfully last week to convince the Supreme Court to fast-track a decision on Philadelphia 's three-day extension for counting absentee ballots .
It all points to a president with no plans to concede defeat Tuesday , regardless of outcome .
Indeed , Axios reported Sunday that Trump wants to declare victory on election night , even before such a result is clear .
Against this backdrop , meanwhile , Americans have been engaged in another @ @ @ @ @ @ @ guns .
Demand for virtually everything in stock has been off the charts since the onset of the pandemic in March , said Dan Aldridge , the owner of Maxon Shooter 's Supplies and Indoor Range in Des Plaines , Ill. That includes handguns , long guns and ammunition — in particular the hollow-tipped rounds that are specifically designed for self-defence , as well as Maxon 's three-a-day firearms training classes .
`` In the past , buying surges were driven by fears of anti-gun legislative changes — 'They 're going to ban @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that , I better load up . '
It 's different this time , '' Aldridge said .
The U.S. election will be an existential litmus test for George Washington 's `` last great experiment '' # Election2020 # USelection `` It 's people that are truly concerned about personal safety . ''
The first nine months of the year saw 28.8 million background checks — a necessary step to obtain a handgun in 22 states and D.C. — initiated in the U.S. , FBI data show , a record total that has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 28.4 million .
The Trace , a U.S. media website dedicated to analyzing gun issues , estimates 1.92 million guns were purchased in September , the sixth-highest month on record and a 67 per cent increase over the same period last year .
That could mean a polarized , angry and heat-packing electorate suddenly being confronted with an inconclusive or even disputed election outcome after months of COVID-induced cabin fever — a period that 's already been marked by dramatic displays of civil unrest over the country 's deep-seated racial divide .
`` @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a good percentage of Americans that something bad could be coming , '' said Ryan Williams , a criminal justice professor at the University of Illinois Springfield .
`` And they do n't know what that is .
They do n't know what that looks like . ''
Walmart briefly pulled guns and ammunition from store shelves Thursday , citing a risk of `` isolated civil unrest '' — a decision that may have been linked to recent racial tensions in Philadelphia .
But the U.S. retail giant quickly reversed itself Friday on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ remained geographically isolated . ''
In downtown Washington , D.C. , businesses that endured a raucous summer of social-justice protests marred by looting and vandalism were again protecting storefronts over the weekend , hoisting sheets of plywood in front of plate glass windows as if bracing for a looming hurricane .
The candidates , meanwhile , were in barnstorming mode over the weekend .
Trump hosted nine rallies over the two days , four of them alone in Pennsylvania , the blue-collar battleground that 's worth 20 electoral votes and is widely expected @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the final outcome .
So too will Florida , Georgia , Michigan , Iowa and North Carolina , the five states Trump visited Sunday .
All five landed under his name in 2016 , and all five are in play this time around .
On Monday , the president returns to Pennsylvania and North Carolina , with a stop in Wisconsin before one final event in Grand Rapids , Mich. Joe Biden , meanwhile , has been setting a more modest pace — partly to keep safety concerns to a minimum , but @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that has been a cornerstone of the Democratic campaign : let Trump be Trump .
The former vice-president visited Michigan on Saturday with his old boss , Barack Obama , before moving on to Ohio and Pennsylvania , where he 'll be on Monday .
Ironically , a steady decline of public faith in institutions like the federal government has exacerbated the instability that risks undermining the election , the Canadian-born Williams said .
And for millions of Americans , particularly those living near the poverty line , the pandemic has only served @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , `` there 's basic agreement on what the government 's there for and why we need them .
I have n't seen that here , '' Williams said .
The deaths of Breonna Taylor , George Floyd and countless others at the hands of police — Walter Wallace Jr. became the latest victim last week in Philadelphia — have also served to undermine that faith , he added .
`` That really breaks away and wears down people 's idea that somebody is there to protect me , protect my life , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
`` When that is gone , Americans will go protect themselves . ''
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 2 , 2020 .

George Washington's "last great experiment" faces an existential litmus test beginning Tuesday as the bristling polarities of an energized, outraged and well-armed body politic finish weighing in on who should be the next American president. Theirs may not be the final word. Be it because of Donald Trump, COVID-19 or Black Lives Matter, Americans seem all in, for once, on the 2020 vote: more than 92 million ballots have already been cast, two-thirds of the total turnout from four years ago. Thanks to the pandemic, mail-in voting has shattered records. But it takes time to count those votes, and Trump — who sows baseless fears of electoral fraud at every turn — has repeatedly signalled he'll take his battle with Joe Biden from the campaign trail to the courtroom. The Texas Supreme Court on Sunday rejected a two-pronged GOP effort to get 127,000 drive-thru votes thrown out in largely Democratic Harris County, a challenge that has also been filed in federal court.
Republicans also tried unsuccessfully last week to convince the Supreme Court to fast-track a decision on Philadelphia's three-day extension for counting absentee ballots. It all points to a president with no plans to concede defeat Tuesday, regardless of outcome. Indeed, Axios reported Sunday that Trump wants to declare victory on election night, even before such a result is clear. Billion-dollar land deals in Ontario raise corruption suspicions Against this backdrop, meanwhile, Americans have been engaged in another time-honoured tradition of U.S. democracy: buying guns.
Demand for virtually everything in stock has been off the charts since the onset of the pandemic in March, said Dan Aldridge, the owner of Maxon Shooter's Supplies and Indoor Range in Des Plaines, Ill. The U.S. election will be an existential litmus test for George Washington's "last great experiment" #Election2020 #USelection That includes handguns, long guns and ammunition — in particular the hollow-tipped rounds that are specifically designed for self-defence, as well as Maxon's three-a-day firearms training classes. "In the past, buying surges were driven by fears of anti-gun legislative changes — 'They're going to ban this, they're going to ban that, I better load up.' It's different this time," Aldridge said. "It's people that are truly concerned about personal safety." The first nine months of the year saw 28.8 million background checks — a necessary step to obtain a handgun in 22 states and D.C. — initiated in the U.S., FBI data show, a record total that has already surpassed 2019's full-year tally of 28.4 million.
The Trace, a U.S. media website dedicated to analyzing gun issues, estimates 1.92 million guns were purchased in September, the sixth-highest month on record and a 67 per cent increase over the same period last year. That could mean a polarized, angry and heat-packing electorate suddenly being confronted with an inconclusive or even disputed election outcome after months of COVID-induced cabin fever — a period that's already been marked by dramatic displays of civil unrest over the country's deep-seated racial divide. "I think you have a fear among a good percentage of Americans that something bad could be coming," said Ryan Williams, a criminal justice professor at the University of Illinois Springfield.


nationalobserver--2020-11-02--CO2 emissions from forestry are a surging climate threat. Ottawa needs to act

This huge forest carbon sink benefited us in many ways in addition to climate safety .
The logging industry benefited because it allowed them to promote their wood products as both sustainable and carbon neutral .
But now they find themselves cutting more than is growing back — putting both their economic advantages and social licence at risk .
Other carbon-intensive industries , like oil and gas and aviation , have been counting on a large and enduring forest carbon sink to supply carbon offsets to meet climate targets .
Without millions of tonnes of these hoped-for Canadian forest carbon @ @ @ @ @ @ @ deeper and more expensive cuts to their own climate pollution .
Canada 's vast managed forest lands used to be critical allies in our climate fight and efforts to build a sustainable , carbon neutral forestry economy .
That 's because these forests used to be healthy enough to absorb the huge amounts of CO2 created by the logging industry 's harvests — plus lots more .
The rising black line shows the cumulative CO2 emitted by the logging industry 's harvested wood over the last 10 years .
These logging emissions added @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of CO2 ( MtCO2 ) .
Now compare those emissions to what our managed forests were absorbing over those same years .
That 's the faltering lower dashed line .
The forests absorbed less than 100 MtCO2 — not even one-tenth of what the logging industry emitted .
My first chart shows how extreme this has become over the last decade .
The result has been a rising flood of CO2 pouring out of our managed forests and accumulating in our atmosphere — worsening both the climate and ocean acidification crises .
Unfortunately @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ' deep and valuable carbon sink has nearly dried up .
Decades of human abuses — from climate disruption to clearcutting — have left them too battered and weakened to even keep up with business-as-usual logging .
Put simply : Our continent-spanning managed forests are now being cut down faster than they are growing back .
To put the scale of these logging emissions into context , my next chart compares them to all other sectors in Canada .
I 've also included a grey dashed line showing the oilsands industry portion of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ three-quarters of emissions in the rest of our economy are covered by our national carbon pollution pricing .
However , all 155 MtCO2 in logging emissions are excluded from the carbon tax .
In addition , Ottawa also exempts logging emissions from our other emission-reduction policies and targets .
For example , under Canada 's 2030 Paris Agreement pledge , the target for all other sectors is a 30 per cent emissions cut .
But Ottawa created a separate target just for these logging emissions that allows them to rise , not fall @ @ @ @ @ @ @ one of our largest sources of climate pollution — the roughly 155 MtCO2 per year emitted by the logging industry 's harvests .
( For a detailed breakdown of these emissions , see the article endnotes . )
As the federal Canadian government says : “ A price on carbon pollution is an essential part of Canada ’ s plan to fight climate change and grow the economy .
Pricing carbon pollution is the most efficient way to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and stimulate investments in clean innovation .
A price on carbon @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and businesses to choose cleaner options.
” Canada 's current efforts to do this includes a price on climate pollution — a carbon tax levied on most sources of emissions in the other sectors .
It 's small fee , but it 's a start .
The climate science is clear that avoiding a full-blown climate crisis requires us to reduce all our emissions to zero in the next few decades .
What they show is that this flood of climate pollution has now grown too large and out of control to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ acting on this threat while we still have a shot to rein it in .
That 's the grim story told by the data in Canada 's official National Inventory Reports ( NIRs ) .
I 've dug into that data to create a series of charts that illustrate what 's going on .
The remaining 90 per cent of those logging emissions , shown by the red area , have been accumulating in our atmosphere , intensifying climate disruption .
The decision to keep cutting more than is growing back has resulted @ @ @ @ @ @ @ excess CO2 emissions — so far .
And , as we will see in detail below , the long-term trend lines show the problem growing increasingly worse .
Sadly , this is n't happening anymore .
As we 've seen above , and will see in even more detail below , the government 's own data shows that the logging industry has been cutting and emitting more than our managed forests are able to absorb .
These special exemptions for logging emissions are based on the notion that our managed forests are reabsorbing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ This , they argue , makes the logged wood “ carbon neutral.
” Likewise , efforts in Canada to push this clear and growing threat off our books with creative accounting simply allows the crisis to spiral out of control .
What we need instead are new policies from Ottawa to address this threat .
The climate-safest new policy option would be to require logging emissions to not exceed what our managed forests absorb .
That would stop the CO2 flood and return the forests to net zero .
Doing this would require @ @ @ @ @ @ @ impacted forestry workers and forestry economy .
But it could also have significant long-term economic benefits compared to the current path of not acting .
For example , it would make it easier to convince clean tech investors and the global marketplace that Canadian forest products are — and will remain — carbon neutral .
If you think selling thermal coal is getting hard to do , imagine trying to sell wood that is n't considered carbon neutral for burning .
Burning wood is even more climate-polluting than coal per unit of energy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ industry , and the social licence that goes with that , depends upon not cutting more than grows back .
And rebuilding the forest carbon sink to be larger than what logging emits could also restore some of the valuable forest carbon offsets that other industries count on .
Alternatively , if Ottawa decides it wants to allow the logging industry to keep emitting more CO2 than our managed forests are absorbing , then it should at least apply our national carbon pricing to the industry 's emissions .
For the same good @ @ @ @ @ @ @ excess emissions sources .
I can see reasonable arguments for either limiting logging emissions to match the forest sink or for imposing a climate pollution fee on the excess logging CO2 .
But there is no reasonable case for continuing to ignore the surging climate threat posed by our managed forestry emissions .
To better understand the dramatic CO2 changes unfolding in Canada 's managed forests and the growing threat they pose , let 's dig a bit deeper into the data .
I 'll start with the most critical number — the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ forests .
This includes both the CO2 absorbed via tree growth and the CO2 emitted by trees that decay or are logged .
This net CO2 exchange with the atmosphere is what our climate system reacts to .
On my chart , it 's shown by the bold black line .
As you can see , back in the 1990s , the CO2 balance was mostly down in the green area .
That means our forests were overall CO2 absorbers ( carbon sinks ) .
They grew back faster than they were logged @ @ @ @ @ @ @ since then , the CO2 balance has moved increasingly upwards into the red zone .
In these more recent years , our managed forests became CO2 emitters ( carbon sources ) .
That means the growth rate could n't keep pace with logging .
This has intensified climate change .
In 2018 , for example , net emissions into the atmosphere totalled 240 MtCO2 .
That was more climate pollution than even our oil and gas or transportation sectors emitted that year .
This is not a climate threat we can safely ignore @ @ @ @ @ @ @ net CO2 balance into its two components .
In its NIR , Canada reports forestry CO2 in two parts : forest growth and logging emissions .
The first part , forest growth , is now shown on the chart as the lower dotted line .
It 's the balance of growth and decay .
The second part , logging emissions — at roughly 155 MtCO2 per year — is shown by the shaded area on top of it .
Specifically , this logging CO2 is what is emitted by logged trees and other @ @ @ @ @ @ @ energy or when it rots at the end of its use .
It also includes emissions from slash left behind by logging .
As this more detailed chart makes clear , net forest growth has been weakening for decades .
This weakening is not part of a normal cycle .
It is being driven by a combination of human actions .
These include forestry practices that have weakened forest health and resilience , like clear cutting old-growth and replacing it with single-age , single-species monocultures .
And they include human-fuelled climate changes that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ decay : wildfires , insect kills , droughts , and storms .
( For details see my forest carbon explainer . )
What this chart also shows is that logging emissions have stayed high even as forest regrowth has plunged .
As a result , logging emissions have increasingly exceeded what Canada 's managed forests absorbed .
The excess CO2 — indicated by the shaded area up in the red zone — has been accumulating in our atmosphere , worsening the climate and ocean acidification crises .
The chart above shows a forestry @ @ @ @ @ @ @ But the big annual swings in that chart can make it hard to see how robust the underlying trends are .
Is this just a few freak years or is it a consistent shift ?
Is the trend improving or growing worse ?
When climate scientists and policymakers are confronted with “ noisy ” data like this , they look at multi-year averages to understand long-term trends .
My next chart does just that .
I 've faded out the annual lines and overlaid them with their 10-year running averages .
Each point @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the 10 years leading up to it .
As you can see , the transition from valuable carbon sink into super-emitting threat has been a robust , steady , multi-decade trend that shows no signs of stopping under continued business-as-usual .
To reverse this threat , Ottawa will need new policies that start restoring the forest carbon sink , while also addressing the huge amounts of logging emissions that exceed it .
The one glimmer of hope that I see for returning our forests to much-needed carbon sinks is shown by the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the long-term trend in forest growth — before logging — is still a small net sink .
That means we might still be able to manage our forestry so it is both climate safe and sustainable .
As it is , however , the decade average for business-as-usual logging emissions has now risen 120 MtCO2 more each year than our managed forests are able to offset .
I 'll wrap up by adding this long-term trend line to the sector emissions chart .
As before , the top brown line shows the total @ @ @ @ @ @ @ year .
That 's currently running around 155 MtCO2 a year .
And the long-term trend for the amount that exceeded what the forests absorbed is shown by the lower brown line that 's rocketing upwards .
That 's averaged at 120 MtCO2 per year over the last decade .
Either way you slice it , logging industry emissions dwarf nearly every other source of climate pollution in our country .
In fact , they exceed what 150 countries emit for everything .
Does that look like “ carbon neutral ” logging to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are heading toward a safe climate future by continuing to ignore emissions at that scale ?
Not to me .
What it looks like to me is a runaway carbon train with the conductors still shovelling fuel into the firebox .
The people in charge of our climate and forestry policies need to start acting on this threat before it derails both our hopes for both a safe climate future and for a long-term sustainable forestry economy .
Canada 's forestry carbon accounting can be confusing for many .
The media rarely has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ enough to fully explain what 's going on .
And the government keeps shifting how and where it reports forest carbon data in the NIR .
The government even keeps changing the targets for it .
So , for those readers who would like a bit more detail on what was covered in this article , I 've added some more in-depth endnotes .
Breaking down logging CO2 into its many sources The vast majority of logging emissions come from the wood and other forest biomass it cuts .
That 's the roughly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in this article .
These are the emissions that Canada currently exempts from our carbon pricing and other climate reduction policies and targets .
These emissions come from four major sources , as shown on my chart .
The biggest source is burning forest biomass for energy .
It emits more than 50 MtCO2 per year .
For comparison , that 's roughly the same as all the coal burning in Canada .
Canada rightly carbon taxes coal CO2 to fight the climate crisis .
But it gives an equivalent amount of CO2 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ To make matters worse , burning wood actually releases more climate pollution per unit of energy produced than coal does .
The second-biggest source comes from discarded paper and paperboard products .
These emit around 40 MtCO2 a year .
Nearly as much gets emitted by solid wood products that have likewise been discarded at the end of their useful life .
Together , these three sources make up the “ Harvested Wood Products ” ( HWP ) category .
This is all the biomass physically removed from the forests by logging .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ a top-level item in the NIR each year .
It has been reported at around 130 MtCO2 per year in recent years .
The final big source is known as “ slash.
” This is the emissions from all the biomass debris left behind by logging and from all the carbon-rich forest soils disturbed by logging operations .
These together emit a guesstimated 20 to 25 MtCO2 per year .
Finally , the logging industry also emits another 8 MtCO2 , more or less , from burning fossil fuels .
These emissions are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
They are accounted for under the relevant sectors , like Transportation .
Where to find the data for managed forest CO2 in the NIR All the data used in this article was published in Canada 's NIR .
But recent changes in how Canada accounts for forestry emissions have made some of it hard to find .
Here 's where to find the data I used : • Forest growth — This is the CO2 balance of growth versus decay for all managed forest lands before logging .
In more recent NIRs @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Table 6-5 as “ net flux.
” In older NIRs , it was listed in the top-level inventory table as “ Forest Lands.
” • CO2 from harvested wood — This is the CO2 emitted by the logged wood and other forest biomass that was removed from forests .
It is listed in the NIR in the top-level inventory table as “ HWP.
” To find the breakdown into the various sources , see the data in Table 4.Gs1 in the companion CRF spreadsheets .
• CO2 from slash — This is the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of logged biomass left behind in the forest , plus the emissions from the disturbed soils .
Canada tracks these slash emissions and folds them into the bigger “ Forest Lands ” NIR value .
However , it does not break out the slash number separately .
The slash emissions estimate used in this article of 20 to 25 MtCO2 per year was made by the author based on an email from Environment Canada explaining how to roughly approximate these emissions from the data it does publish .
Looking for even more info @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and even more details on forest carbon in Canada , you can try my in-depth forest carbon explainer .

The result has been a rising flood of CO2 pouring out of our managed forests and accumulating in our atmosphere — worsening both the climate and ocean acidification crises.
Unfortunately for all of us, our forests' deep and valuable carbon sink has nearly dried up. Decades of human abuses — from climate disruption to clearcutting — have left them too battered and weakened to even keep up with business-as-usual logging. Put simply: Our continent-spanning managed forests are now being cut down faster than they are growing back.
This huge forest carbon sink benefited us in many ways in addition to climate safety. The logging industry benefited because it allowed them to promote their wood products as both sustainable and carbon neutral. But now they find themselves cutting more than is growing back — putting both their economic advantages and social licence at risk. Other carbon-intensive industries, like oil and gas and aviation, have been counting on a large and enduring forest carbon sink to supply carbon offsets to meet climate targets. Without millions of tonnes of these hoped-for Canadian forest carbon offsets, these industries face faster, deeper and more expensive cuts to their own climate pollution.
Canada's vast managed forest lands used to be critical allies in our climate fight and efforts to build a sustainable, carbon neutral forestry economy. That's because these forests used to be healthy enough to absorb the huge amounts of CO2 created by the logging industry's harvests — plus lots more.
The rising black line shows the cumulative CO2 emitted by the logging industry's harvested wood over the last 10 years. These logging emissions added up to more than 1,200 million tonnes of CO2 (MtCO2). Now compare those emissions to what our managed forests were absorbing over those same years. That's the faltering lower dashed line. The forests absorbed less than 100 MtCO2 — not even one-tenth of what the logging industry emitted.
My first chart shows how extreme this has become over the last decade.
The climate science is clear that avoiding a full-blown climate crisis requires us to reduce all our emissions to zero in the next few decades.
What they show is that this flood of climate pollution has now grown too large and out of control to keep ignoring. Ottawa needs to start acting on this threat while we still have a shot to rein it in.
That's the grim story told by the data in Canada's official National Inventory Reports (NIRs). I've dug into that data to create a series of charts that illustrate what's going on.
The remaining 90 per cent of those logging emissions, shown by the red area, have been accumulating in our atmosphere, intensifying climate disruption. The decision to keep cutting more than is growing back has resulted in more than a billion tonnes of excess CO2 emissions — so far. And, as we will see in detail below, the long-term trend lines show the problem growing increasingly worse.
However, Ottawa continues to exempt one of our largest sources of climate pollution — the roughly 155 MtCO2 per year emitted by the logging industry's harvests. (For a detailed breakdown of these emissions, see the article endnotes.)
As the federal Canadian government says : “A price on carbon pollution is an essential part of Canada’s plan to fight climate change and grow the economy. Pricing carbon pollution is the most efficient way to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and stimulate investments in clean innovation. A price on carbon pollution creates incentives for individuals, households, and businesses to choose cleaner options.”
Canada's current efforts to do this includes a price on climate pollution — a carbon tax levied on most sources of emissions in the other sectors. It's small fee, but it's a start.
To put the scale of these logging emissions into context, my next chart compares them to all other sectors in Canada. I've also included a grey dashed line showing the oilsands industry portion of the oil and gas sector.
Roughly three-quarters of emissions in the rest of our economy are covered by our national carbon pollution pricing. However, all 155 MtCO2 in logging emissions are excluded from the carbon tax.
In addition, Ottawa also exempts logging emissions from our other emission-reduction policies and targets. For example, under Canada's 2030 Paris Agreement pledge, the target for all other sectors is a 30 per cent emissions cut. But Ottawa created a separate target just for these logging emissions that allows them to rise, not fall.
These special exemptions for logging emissions are based on the notion that our managed forests are reabsorbing as much CO2 as logging creates. This, they argue, makes the logged wood “carbon neutral.”
Sadly, this isn't happening anymore. As we've seen above, and will see in even more detail below, the government's own data shows that the logging industry has been cutting and emitting more than our managed forests are able to absorb.
As U.S. President Donald Trump learned with COVID-19, ignoring a clear and growing threat won't make it “disappear … like a miracle.”
Likewise, efforts in Canada to push this clear and growing threat off our books with creative accounting simply allows the crisis to spiral out of control. What we need instead are new policies from Ottawa to address this threat.
The climate-safest new policy option would be to require logging emissions to not exceed what our managed forests absorb. That would stop the CO2 flood and return the forests to net zero. Doing this would require a lot of government support for the impacted forestry workers and forestry economy. But it could also have significant long-term economic benefits compared to the current path of not acting.
For example, it would make it easier to convince clean tech investors and the global marketplace that Canadian forest products are — and will remain — carbon neutral. If you think selling thermal coal is getting hard to do, imagine trying to sell wood that isn't considered carbon neutral for burning. Burning wood is even more climate-polluting than coal per unit of energy. The long-term sustainability for our logging industry, and the social licence that goes with that, depends upon not cutting more than grows back. And rebuilding the forest carbon sink to be larger than what logging emits could also restore some of the valuable forest carbon offsets that other industries count on.
Alternatively, if Ottawa decides it wants to allow the logging industry to keep emitting more CO2 than our managed forests are absorbing, then it should at least apply our national carbon pricing to the industry's emissions. For the same good reasons it applies it to our other excess emissions sources.
I can see reasonable arguments for either limiting logging emissions to match the forest sink or for imposing a climate pollution fee on the excess logging CO2.
But there is no reasonable case for continuing to ignore the surging climate threat posed by our managed forestry emissions.
From carbon sink to super-emitter
To better understand the dramatic CO2 changes unfolding in Canada's managed forests and the growing threat they pose, let's dig a bit deeper into the data.
I'll start with the most critical number — the net CO2 balance of Canada's managed forests. This includes both the CO2 absorbed via tree growth and the CO2 emitted by trees that decay or are logged.
This net CO2 exchange with the atmosphere is what our climate system reacts to. On my chart, it's shown by the bold black line.
As you can see, back in the 1990s, the CO2 balance was mostly down in the green area. That means our forests were overall CO2 absorbers (carbon sinks). They grew back faster than they were logged and helped slow climate change.
But since then, the CO2 balance has moved increasingly upwards into the red zone. In these more recent years, our managed forests became CO2 emitters (carbon sources). That means the growth rate couldn't keep pace with logging. This has intensified climate change.
In 2018, for example, net emissions into the atmosphere totalled 240 MtCO2. That was more climate pollution than even our oil and gas or transportation sectors emitted that year. This is not a climate threat we can safely ignore.
Forest growth versus logging
My next chart breaks down the net CO2 balance into its two components. In its NIR, Canada reports forestry CO2 in two parts: forest growth and logging emissions.
The first part, forest growth, is now shown on the chart as the lower dotted line. It's the balance of growth and decay.
The second part, logging emissions — at roughly 155 MtCO2 per year — is shown by the shaded area on top of it.
Specifically, this logging CO2 is what is emitted by logged trees and other forest biomass when it gets burned for energy or when it rots at the end of its use. It also includes emissions from slash left behind by logging.
As this more detailed chart makes clear, net forest growth has been weakening for decades.
This weakening is not part of a normal cycle. It is being driven by a combination of human actions. These include forestry practices that have weakened forest health and resilience, like clear cutting old-growth and replacing it with single-age, single-species monocultures. And they include human-fuelled climate changes that are turbocharging the four horsemen of forest decay: wildfires, insect kills, droughts, and storms. (For details see my forest carbon explainer.)
What this chart also shows is that logging emissions have stayed high even as forest regrowth has plunged. As a result, logging emissions have increasingly exceeded what Canada's managed forests absorbed. The excess CO2 — indicated by the shaded area up in the red zone — has been accumulating in our atmosphere, worsening the climate and ocean acidification crises.
Visualizing the long-term trend
The chart above shows a forestry system in trouble and hemorrhaging CO2. But the big annual swings in that chart can make it hard to see how robust the underlying trends are. Is this just a few freak years or is it a consistent shift? Is the trend improving or growing worse?
When climate scientists and policymakers are confronted with “noisy” data like this, they look at multi-year averages to understand long-term trends.
My next chart does just that. I've faded out the annual lines and overlaid them with their 10-year running averages. Each point on these trend lines is the average of the 10 years leading up to it.
As you can see, the transition from valuable carbon sink into super-emitting threat has been a robust, steady, multi-decade trend that shows no signs of stopping under continued business-as-usual.
To reverse this threat, Ottawa will need new policies that start restoring the forest carbon sink, while also addressing the huge amounts of logging emissions that exceed it.
The one glimmer of hope that I see for returning our forests to much-needed carbon sinks is shown by the dotted bottom line. It shows that the long-term trend in forest growth — before logging — is still a small net sink. That means we might still be able to manage our forestry so it is both climate safe and sustainable.
As it is, however, the decade average for business-as-usual logging emissions has now risen 120 MtCO2 more each year than our managed forests are able to offset.
I'll wrap up by adding this long-term trend line to the sector emissions chart.
Excess logging emissions versus other sectors
As before, the top brown line shows the total emissions from all the wood logged each year. That's currently running around 155 MtCO2 a year.
And the long-term trend for the amount that exceeded what the forests absorbed is shown by the lower brown line that's rocketing upwards. That's averaged at 120 MtCO2 per year over the last decade.
Either way you slice it, logging industry emissions dwarf nearly every other source of climate pollution in our country. In fact, they exceed what 150 countries emit for everything.
Does that look like “carbon neutral” logging to you?
Does it look like we are heading toward a safe climate future by continuing to ignore emissions at that scale?
Not to me. What it looks like to me is a runaway carbon train with the conductors still shovelling fuel into the firebox. The people in charge of our climate and forestry policies need to start acting on this threat before it derails both our hopes for both a safe climate future and for a long-term sustainable forestry economy.
EXTENDED ENDNOTES
Canada's forestry carbon accounting can be confusing for many. The media rarely has time to dig into the data deep enough to fully explain what's going on. And the government keeps shifting how and where it reports forest carbon data in the NIR. The government even keeps changing the targets for it. So, for those readers who would like a bit more detail on what was covered in this article, I've added some more in-depth endnotes.
Breaking down logging CO2 into its many sources
The vast majority of logging emissions come from the wood and other forest biomass it cuts. That's the roughly 155 MtCO2 per year that was discussed in this article. These are the emissions that Canada currently exempts from our carbon pricing and other climate reduction policies and targets.
These emissions come from four major sources, as shown on my chart.
The biggest source is burning forest biomass for energy. It emits more than 50 MtCO2 per year. For comparison, that's roughly the same as all the coal burning in Canada. Canada rightly carbon taxes coal CO2 to fight the climate crisis. But it gives an equivalent amount of CO2 from burning wood a free pass. To make matters worse, burning wood actually releases more climate pollution per unit of energy produced than coal does.
The second-biggest source comes from discarded paper and paperboard products. These emit around 40 MtCO2 a year.
Nearly as much gets emitted by solid wood products that have likewise been discarded at the end of their useful life.
Together, these three sources make up the “Harvested Wood Products” (HWP) category. This is all the biomass physically removed from the forests by logging. Canada tracks and reports HWP emissions as a top-level item in the NIR each year. It has been reported at around 130 MtCO2 per year in recent years.
The final big source is known as “slash.” This is the emissions from all the biomass debris left behind by logging and from all the carbon-rich forest soils disturbed by logging operations. These together emit a guesstimated 20 to 25 MtCO2 per year.
Finally, the logging industry also emits another 8 MtCO2, more or less, from burning fossil fuels. These emissions are appropriately subject to Canada's carbon tax. They are accounted for under the relevant sectors, like Transportation.
Where to find the data for managed forest CO2 in the NIR
All the data used in this article was published in Canada's NIR. But recent changes in how Canada accounts for forestry emissions have made some of it hard to find. Here's where to find the data I used:
Forest growth — This is the CO2 balance of growth versus decay for all managed forest lands before logging. In more recent NIRs, this data is listed in NIR Table 6-5 as “net flux.” In older NIRs, it was listed in the top-level inventory table as “Forest Lands.”
CO2 from harvested wood — This is the CO2 emitted by the logged wood and other forest biomass that was removed from forests. It is listed in the NIR in the top-level inventory table as “HWP.” To find the breakdown into the various sources, see the data in Table 4.Gs1 in the companion CRF spreadsheets.
CO2 from slash — This is the CO2 emitted by the decay or burning of logged biomass left behind in the forest, plus the emissions from the disturbed soils. Canada tracks these slash emissions and folds them into the bigger “Forest Lands” NIR value. However, it does not break out the slash number separately. The slash emissions estimate used in this article of 20 to 25 MtCO2 per year was made by the author based on an email from Environment Canada explaining how to roughly approximate these emissions from the data it does publish.
Looking for even more info?
If you want a broader overview and even more details on forest carbon in Canada, you can try my in-depth forest carbon explainer.


nationalobserver--2020-11-02--Canada's immigration targets belie COVID-related shortfall, critics say

Canada plans to grant some 1.2 million migrants permanent residency in the next three years , the federal government said on Friday , an increase that critics say is a mirage .
The updated plan expects 401,000 new permanent residents to be granted status in 2021 , increasing to 411,000 in 2022 and 421,000 in 2023 .
That compares to last year ’ s goal of bringing in 341,000 new permanent residents in 2020 , 351,000 in 2021 and 361,000 in 2022 .
But while it won ’ t be clear how short Canada was of its 2020 target until @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Migrant Workers Alliance says partial data suggests a likely shortfall of 150,000 people this year — numbers Canada will take most of the next three years to make up .
“ There 's really no change at all , ” he said in a phone interview .
“ The 2021 announcement merely keeps the same immigration numbers as before , simply trying to cover up the gaps that have happened with the overall entries this year because of COVID-19 .
• CO2 emissions from forestry are a surging climate threat .
Ottawa @ @ @ @ @ @ @ COVID-19 cases in central Canada • Majority want feds to move now on inequality , racism , climate change : poll “ They ’ ve not actually created any mechanisms to ensure the same will not be duplicated , ” he said .
Meanwhile , he pointed out that an even larger number of people come to Canada each year on temporary permits , and their path to permanent residency remains as perilous as ever .
International students make up the biggest chunk of temporary migration to Canada ( TFWP is the Temporary @ @ @ @ @ @ @ International Mobility Program ) and often stay after graduation .
Source : Federal government 's 2019 annual report to Parliament on immigration Those with temporary status include temporary foreign workers , international students and an international mobility category that includes post-graduate work permit holders .
“ By and large , the government has missed an opportunity to respond to the crisis unveiled and exacerbated during COVID-19 , with migrants and undocumented people shut out from basic rights and protections as a result of not having permanent resident status , ” Syed said .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ people in Canada today does not have the right to reside permanently in the country , and that the two-tiered system his group wants abolished creates conditions ripe for the exploitation of foreign students and workers .
Ottawa 's new three-year # immigration target takes in more people , but NDP critic @ JennyKwanBC and @ MWACCanada 's @ hussansk are not impressed .
They say big problems remain and the increase barely covers the fall this year due to COVID-19 .
# cndpoli “ It shows that the government is not actually @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the needs of the economy , ” he said of the updated immigration plan .
The government estimates that immigration accounts for all of the growth in Canada 's labour force and that immigrants will make up 30 per cent of the population by 2036 , up from 20.7 per cent in 2011 .
Immigration Minister Marco Mendicino said the government remains committed to welcoming newcomers to keep Canada 's economy growing .
“ A lot has changed , but one thing hasn ’ t — the fact that immigration is vital to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ told reporters Friday , after the numbers were presented to Parliament .
Jenny Kwan , the NDP ’ s immigration critic , meanwhile said the low end of the wider range the Liberals presented was giving them room to fall short .
“ By lowering the minimum targets by 20,000 per year , the Liberals I think demonstrate a lack of conviction in their own targets and have left the door wide open for immigration levels to actually decrease , ” Kwan told Canada ’ s National Observer .
She said that she @ @ @ @ @ @ @ push for all migrants to receive landed status on arrival , and for steps to help international students and recent graduates meet work requirements given the extraordinary circumstances .
She said she is approached by many international students — especially those from Iran , she noted — who are facing interminable delays , and that presents a risk for Canada to lose out on top talent .
“ What I do know right now is this : there are many international students with all sorts of tremendous skills and some of them even @ @ @ @ @ @ @ they can not get the pathway to permanent residency here in Canada , ” she said .

Canada plans to grant some 1.2 million migrants permanent residency in the next three years, the federal government said on Friday, an increase that critics say is a mirage. The updated plan expects 401,000 new permanent residents to be granted status in 2021, increasing to 411,000 in 2022 and 421,000 in 2023. That compares to last year’s goal of bringing in 341,000 new permanent residents in 2020, 351,000 in 2021 and 361,000 in 2022. But while it won’t be clear how short Canada was of its 2020 target until early next year, Syed Hussan from the Migrant Workers Alliance says partial data suggests a likely shortfall of 150,000 people this year — numbers Canada will take most of the next three years to make up. “There's really no change at all,” he said in a phone interview. “The 2021 announcement merely keeps the same immigration numbers as before, simply trying to cover up the gaps that have happened with the overall entries this year because of COVID-19.
“They’ve not actually created any mechanisms to ensure the same will not be duplicated,” he said. Meanwhile, he pointed out that an even larger number of people come to Canada each year on temporary permits, and their path to permanent residency remains as perilous as ever. Billion-dollar land deals in Ontario raise corruption suspicions International students make up the biggest chunk of temporary migration to Canada (TFWP is the Temporary Foreign Workers Program and IMP is the International Mobility Program) and often stay after graduation. Source: Federal government's 2019 annual report to Parliament on immigration
Those with temporary status include temporary foreign workers, international students and an international mobility category that includes post-graduate work permit holders. Ottawa's new three-year #immigration target takes in more people, but NDP critic @JennyKwanBC and @MWACCanada's @hussansk are not impressed. They say big problems remain and the increase barely covers the fall this year due to COVID-19. #cndpoli “By and large, the government has missed an opportunity to respond to the crisis unveiled and exacerbated during COVID-19, with migrants and undocumented people shut out from basic rights and protections as a result of not having permanent resident status,” Syed said. He said that one in every 23 people in Canada today does not have the right to reside permanently in the country, and that the two-tiered system his group wants abolished creates conditions ripe for the exploitation of foreign students and workers. “It shows that the government is not actually responding to the needs of migrants or the needs of the economy,” he said of the updated immigration plan. The government estimates that immigration accounts for all of the growth in Canada's labour force and that immigrants will make up 30 per cent of the population by 2036, up from 20.7 per cent in 2011.
Immigration Minister Marco Mendicino said the government remains committed to welcoming newcomers to keep Canada's economy growing. “A lot has changed, but one thing hasn’t — the fact that immigration is vital to Canada’s future,” he told reporters Friday, after the numbers were presented to Parliament. Jenny Kwan, the NDP’s immigration critic, meanwhile said the low end of the wider range the Liberals presented was giving them room to fall short.


nationalobserver--2020-11-02--Trump administration scraps endangered species protections for grey wolf

This article was originally published by The Guardian and appears here as part of Canada 's National Observer 's collaboration with Climate Desk .
The Trump administration has removed endangered species protections from the grey wolf , a species once persecuted to near-extinction in the U.S. , in a move that has been condemned as premature by conservationists .
The wolves have been provided federal protection for more than 45 years but this is no longer needed according to David Bernhardt , the U.S. interior secretary , who announced the decision in Minnesota on Thursday .
The species has “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” said Bernhardt .
“ Today ’ s announcement simply reflects the determination that this species is neither a threatened nor endangered species based on the specific factors Congress has laid out in the law.
” • CO2 emissions from forestry are a surging climate threat .
Ottawa needs to act • Thousands of new COVID-19 cases in central Canada • Majority want feds to move now on inequality , racism , climate change : poll Grey wolf numbers plummeted to around 1,000 by the 1970s after long being harassed , poisoned and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ them a threat to livestock .
Since being listed under the Endangered Species Act ( ESA ) , the population has rebounded somewhat , with around 6,000 wolves now in the lower 48 states .
But biologists point out that the wolves , which once roamed much of North America , still only occupy a tiny slice of their former habitat , confined to parts of Minnesota , Wisconsin , Michigan and areas in the northern reaches of the Rocky Mountains .
Conservationists are keen to reintroduce wolves to states such as Colorado @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this will be possible without federal protections , sparking a looming legal battle over the Trump administration ’ s deisting .
“ Stripping protections for grey wolves is premature and reckless , ” said Jamie Rappaport Clark , president of Defenders of Wildlife and a former director of the U.S .
Fish and Wildlife Service .
“ Grey wolves occupy only a fraction of their former range and need continued federal protection to fully recover .
We will be taking the U.S .
Fish and Wildlife Service to court to defend this iconic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ grey wolves will be subject to a patchwork of state and local laws , some of which will allow the trapping and killing of the animals .
Many ranchers still view wolves as a threat to livestock , while hunters consider them unhelpful competition for deer and elk .
William Perry Pendley , the acting director of the Bureau of Land Management , once wrote to Disney to complain that its movie White Fang was too kind to wolves .
Protections for wolves have already been lifted in Idaho , Wyoming and Montana @ @ @ @ @ @ @ than 500 wolves in Idaho just in the past year , according to analysis by environment groups .
Biologists point out that the wolves , which once roamed much of North America , still only occupy a tiny slice of their former habitat , confined to parts of Minnesota , Wisconsin , Michigan and areas in the northern reaches of the Rocky Mountains .
While grey wolves have repeatedly been portrayed as a menacing threat to American rural life , scientists point out that they play an important ecological role .
In a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to Yellowstone national park in 1995 helped restore the health of the famed wilderness by controlling deer populations , which in turn benefited local flora .
A letter to the Trump administration signed by more than 100 biologists opposing the delisting argued that any perceived threats to livestock or humans from wolves are easily manageable and that protections should remain .
“ In recent years , efforts to delist wolves have been motivated by local and special interests , ” the scientists wrote .
“ As such , these efforts eviscerate the essential @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , which is to conserve species insomuch as doing so is a national interest.
” Since Donald Trump took office , 13 species , and now the grey wolf , have been found to be neither threatened nor endangered under the ESA , a sign , the administration said , that its conservation work has been successful .
Critics , however , point out that the Trump administration has weakened the application of the act to make it much harder to list species as endangered , as well as thrown open vast tracts @ @ @ @ @ @ @ drilling , among other activities .

This article was originally published by The Guardian and appears here as part of Canada's National Observer's collaboration with Climate Desk. The Trump administration has removed endangered species protections from the grey wolf, a species once persecuted to near-extinction in the U.S., in a move that has been condemned as premature by conservationists. The wolves have been provided federal protection for more than 45 years but this is no longer needed according to David Bernhardt, the U.S. interior secretary, who announced the decision in Minnesota on Thursday. The species has “exceeded all conservation goals for recovery,” said Bernhardt. “Today’s announcement simply reflects the determination that this species is neither a threatened nor endangered species based on the specific factors Congress has laid out in the law.”
Grey wolf numbers plummeted to around 1,000 by the 1970s after long being harassed, poisoned and shot by farmers and ranchers who considered them a threat to livestock. Since being listed under the Endangered Species Act (ESA), the population has rebounded somewhat, with around 6,000 wolves now in the lower 48 states. But biologists point out that the wolves, which once roamed much of North America, still only occupy a tiny slice of their former habitat, confined to parts of Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan and areas in the northern reaches of the Rocky Mountains. Billion-dollar land deals in Ontario raise corruption suspicions Conservationists are keen to reintroduce wolves to states such as Colorado but it’s now uncertain whether this will be possible without federal protections, sparking a looming legal battle over the Trump administration’s deisting.
“Stripping protections for grey wolves is premature and reckless,” said Jamie Rappaport Clark, president of Defenders of Wildlife and a former director of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. “Grey wolves occupy only a fraction of their former range and need continued federal protection to fully recover. We will be taking the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to court to defend this iconic species.” Biologists point out that the wolves, which once roamed much of North America, still only occupy a tiny slice of their former habitat, confined to parts of Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan and areas in the northern reaches of the Rocky Mountains. With no federal safeguards, grey wolves will be subject to a patchwork of state and local laws, some of which will allow the trapping and killing of the animals. Many ranchers still view wolves as a threat to livestock, while hunters consider them unhelpful competition for deer and elk. William Perry Pendley, the acting director of the Bureau of Land Management, once wrote to Disney to complain that its movie White Fang was too kind to wolves. Protections for wolves have already been lifted in Idaho, Wyoming and Montana, leading to the deaths of more than 500 wolves in Idaho just in the past year, according to analysis by environment groups. While grey wolves have repeatedly been portrayed as a menacing threat to American rural life, scientists point out that they play an important ecological role. In a famous example, the reintroduction of wolves to Yellowstone national park in 1995 helped restore the health of the famed wilderness by controlling deer populations, which in turn benefited local flora. A letter to the Trump administration signed by more than 100 biologists opposing the delisting argued that any perceived threats to livestock or humans from wolves are easily manageable and that protections should remain. “In recent years, efforts to delist wolves have been motivated by local and special interests,” the scientists wrote. “As such, these efforts eviscerate the essential purpose of federal governance and the ESA, which is to conserve species insomuch as doing so is a national interest.”