palmerreport--2020-11-05--Sean Hannity has on-air meltdown as Donald Trump circles the drain

With Joe Biden having won Wisconsin and Michigan and now looking very good in Pennsylvania , Donald Trump ’ s @ @ @ @ @ so narrow you could thread a needle with it .
Even as Trump has gone @ @ @ @ @ Sean Hannity is being rather loud tonight .
Hannity spend his Fox News show tonight @ @ @ @ @ incoherent fashion about whether the vote totals are accurate , whether “ dead people ” @ @ @ @ @ nonsensical about Hillary Clinton .
Hannity also came dangerously close to trying to incite violence @ @ @ @ @ things are clear .
First , Sean Hannity now thinks Donald Trump will lose .
@ @ @ @ @ Hannity ’ s franticness suggests that he worries about what will happen to his TV @ @ @ @ @ and Trump ’ s base gets discouraged and scatters .
We expect to see plenty @ @ @ @ @ world as Donald Trump continues to circle the drain in this election .

Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support Palmer Report's 2024 efforts by donating now.
-----
-----
With Joe Biden having won Wisconsin and Michigan and now looking very good in Pennsylvania, Donald Trump’s remaining path to victory is so narrow you could thread a needle with it. Even as Trump has gone remarkably quiet, his sycophant Sean Hannity is being rather loud tonight.
Hannity spend his Fox News show tonight ranting and raving in largely incoherent fashion about whether the vote totals are accurate, whether “dead people” are involved, and something nonsensical about Hillary Clinton. Hannity also came dangerously close to trying to incite violence with his rhetoric.
Two things are clear. First, Sean Hannity now thinks Donald Trump will lose. Second, the level of Hannity’s franticness suggests that he worries about what will happen to his TV career after Trump loses, and Trump’s base gets discouraged and scatters. We expect to see plenty more such meltdowns in Trump world as Donald Trump continues to circle the drain in this election.
Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support our 2024 efforts by donating now or sign up for our free mailing list.


palmerreport--2020-11-05--Joe Biden now looking VERY good in Pennsylvania

Once we saw the gap completely close in Wisconsin and Michigan as the mail-in votes in big cities started to come in , we knew that Joe Biden had a strong chance of closing the gap in Pennsylvania as well .
Now Biden has won Wisconsin , and he ’ s won Michigan big , and he ’ s indeed closing in Pennsylvania .
Here ’ s the thing .
We were expecting it to take several days – perhaps even into next week – before Pennsylvania could be called for Biden .
But Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight now says @ @ @ @ @ @ @ remainder of the vote by about 22 points , he ’ s thus far winning it by about fifty points , meaning he ’ s very likely to win .
Nate Cohn of the New York Times tweeted that at the rate things are going , Pennsylvania could end up being called before Nevada .
SO it ’ s still not clear precisely when Pennsylvania could be called for Joe Biden – it now looks to be much sooner than the lengthy wait we were expecting .
That ’ s good both in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ all week on pins and needles , and in terms of Donald Trump not having as much time to try to screw with things .
If Joe Biden wins Pennsylvania , he ’ ll be declared the winner of the election – even if Nevada , Georgia , and Arizona haven ’ t yet been called ( some news outlets have called Arizona and some haven ’ t ) .

Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support Palmer Report's 2024 efforts by donating now.
-----
-----
Once we saw the gap completely close in Wisconsin and Michigan as the mail-in votes in big cities started to come in, we knew that Joe Biden had a strong chance of closing the gap in Pennsylvania as well. Now Biden has won Wisconsin, and he’s won Michigan big, and he’s indeed closing in Pennsylvania. Here’s the thing.
We were expecting it to take several days – perhaps even into next week – before Pennsylvania could be called for Biden. But Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight now says that while Biden needed to win the remainder of the vote by about 22 points, he’s thus far winning it by about fifty points, meaning he’s very likely to win. Nate Cohn of the New York Times tweeted that at the rate things are going, Pennsylvania could end up being called before Nevada.
SO it’s still not clear precisely when Pennsylvania could be called for Joe Biden – it now looks to be much sooner than the lengthy wait we were expecting. That’s good both in terms of us not having to wait all week on pins and needles, and in terms of Donald Trump not having as much time to try to screw with things.
If Joe Biden wins Pennsylvania, he’ll be declared the winner of the election – even if Nevada, Georgia, and Arizona haven’t yet been called (some news outlets have called Arizona and some haven’t).
Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support our 2024 efforts by donating now or sign up for our free mailing list.


palmerreport--2020-11-05--Donald Trump feels like he’s “starting to see this slip away”

Donald Trump keeps declaring victory in states he ’ s not on track to win , but all it ’ @ @ @ @ @ laughed at .
Trump keeps taking legal action in various states , but no one @ @ @ @ @ .
Now it turns out Trump is seeing the writing on the wall .
Dana @ @ @ @ @ that Donald Trump is feeling “ down ” and “ not that great ” and @ @ @ @ @ starting to see this slip away.
” This is according to sources near Trump , @ @ @ @ @ in order to lower expectations .
Notably , Bash said that Trump doesn ’ t @ @ @ @ @ so long to take legal action in various states ; Trump apparently thought his best @ @ @ @ @ would have been to file suit while he was still artificially ahead in certain states @ @ @ @ @ wouldn ’ t have worked anyway .
But it ’ s notable that Trump seems @ @ @ @ @ up against the wall he is .

Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support Palmer Report's 2024 efforts by donating now.
-----
-----
Donald Trump keeps declaring victory in states he’s not on track to win, but all it’s doing is getting him laughed at. Trump keeps taking legal action in various states, but no one expects it to go anywhere. Now it turns out Trump is seeing the writing on the wall.
Dana Bash revealed on CNN tonight that Donald Trump is feeling “down” and “not that great” and that he’s “starting to see this slip away.” This is according to sources near Trump, who are apparently leaking this in order to lower expectations.
Notably, Bash said that Trump doesn’t understand why his allies waited so long to take legal action in various states; Trump apparently thought his best shot at pulling it off would have been to file suit while he was still artificially ahead in certain states. In our view it wouldn’t have worked anyway. But it’s notable that Trump seems to be realizing how badly up against the wall he is.
Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support our 2024 efforts by donating now or sign up for our free mailing list.


palmerreport--2020-11-05--Donald Trump’s stomach-churning arrogance

I think it ’ s time to retire all comparisons between human courage and male genitalia .
Hillary Clinton put into orbit the idea of class and grace under defeat .
She didn ’ t whine , she didn ’ t make wild accusations of cheating ( though she certainly had cause ) , she didn ’ t try to subvert democracy .
She conceded the race for president gracefully .
It all came down to character not cojones , temperament not testosterone .
Donald Trump , on the other hand , behaved like a petulant , spoiled , unprincipled @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s knock off suggesting that courage has something to do with the absurd apparatus only extant between the legs of males , and make it instead about what it really is : class and common decency , neither of which Trump has a shred .
Trump truculently kept us waiting for the closest thing to a propitious moment to make his 2:30 a.m. Wednesday morning announcement to the effect that , even though ( at the time ) he was behind in Electoral College votes 213 to 220 , he had somehow @ @ @ @ @ @ @ you gon na believe , Donald Trump or your lying eyes ?
That the president of the United States would make such a shameful pronouncement , suggesting that it ’ s suddenly time to stop counting votes before we get to the votes cast by the inner cities , many of which are votes from people of color — in the year 2020 no less — beggars belief and staggers the imagination .
Trump should be impeached all over again for blatantly trying to openly to dissolve democracy .
It ’ s not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , it ’ s a disgrace that so many Americans are just fine with it .
Whatever Trump was attempting to do , it failed .
It failed , at least , with the press .
No news source I know of is willing to use any words that lend credence to the idea that the vote has been fraudulent .
In fact , the British press is very clear on that score .
Donald Trump ’ s claims without evidence that the vote is rigged is itself a fraud , they say @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Trump tried this .
Trump cheats .
Trump always cheats .
He cheats on his taxes , he cheats on his wives , he cheats at golf , he cheats contractors who work for him , he cheats on the truth , he cheats the American people .
Donald Trump is a cheater , and he ’ s going to continue to claim that he won the election even if he should lose .
Don ’ t lose heart , brothers and sisters .
The auspices are good just now .
It ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to lose this election .
What ’ s more , most Republicans have repudiated Trump ’ s early morning claim that all vote counting should cease .
Vote counting will continue until every vote is counted .
And , as ever , ladies and gentlemen , brothers and sisters , comrades and friends , stay safe .

Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support Palmer Report's 2024 efforts by donating now.
-----
-----
I think it’s time to retire all comparisons between human courage and male genitalia. Hillary Clinton put into orbit the idea of class and grace under defeat. She didn’t whine, she didn’t make wild accusations of cheating (though she certainly had cause), she didn’t try to subvert democracy. She conceded the race for president gracefully. It all came down to character not cojones, temperament not testosterone.
Donald Trump, on the other hand, behaved like a petulant, spoiled, unprincipled nine year old brat. So let’s knock off suggesting that courage has something to do with the absurd apparatus only extant between the legs of males, and make it instead about what it really is: class and common decency, neither of which Trump has a shred.
Trump truculently kept us waiting for the closest thing to a propitious moment to make his 2:30 a.m. Wednesday morning announcement to the effect that, even though (at the time) he was behind in Electoral College votes 213 to 220, he had somehow won. After all, who are you gonna believe, Donald Trump or your lying eyes?
That the president of the United States would make such a shameful pronouncement, suggesting that it’s suddenly time to stop counting votes before we get to the votes cast by the inner cities, many of which are votes from people of color — in the year 2020 no less — beggars belief and staggers the imagination. Trump should be impeached all over again for blatantly trying to openly to dissolve democracy. It’s not just a disgrace that he tried it, it’s a disgrace that so many Americans are just fine with it.
Whatever Trump was attempting to do, it failed. It failed, at least, with the press. No news source I know of is willing to use any words that lend credence to the idea that the vote has been fraudulent. In fact, the British press is very clear on that score. Donald Trump’s claims without evidence that the vote is rigged is itself a fraud, they say.
No one should be surprised that Trump tried this. Trump cheats. Trump always cheats. He cheats on his taxes, he cheats on his wives, he cheats at golf, he cheats contractors who work for him, he cheats on the truth, he cheats the American people. Donald Trump is a cheater, and he’s going to continue to claim that he won the election even if he should lose.
Don’t lose heart, brothers and sisters. The auspices are good just now. It’s looking like Donald Trump is about to lose this election. What’s more, most Republicans have repudiated Trump’s early morning claim that all vote counting should cease. Vote counting will continue until every vote is counted. And, as ever, ladies and gentlemen, brothers and sisters, comrades and friends, stay safe.
Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support our 2024 efforts by donating now or sign up for our free mailing list.


palmerreport--2020-11-05--On a path to victory, Joe Biden launches transition site

When Donald Trump tried to falsely declare victory on television last night , most observers simply rolled their eyes .
When Trump again tried to falsely declare victory on Twitter today , Twitter cracked down on his tweets .
JoeBiden hasn ’ t tried to declare victory , even though he ’ s on a solid path to winning .
Now Joe Biden is making an aggressive move by launching his transition website , buildbackbetter.com .
The page is titled “ BIDEN-HARRIS TRANSITION ” and it simply includes this text : “ The American people will determine who will serve @ @ @ @ @ @ @ States .
Votes are still being counted in several states around the country .
The crises facing the country are severe — from a pandemic to an economic recession , climate change to racial injustice — and the transition team will continue preparing at full speed so that the Biden-Harris Administration can hit the ground running on Day One.
” There may not be much to the website yet , but it ’ s still notable that Joe Biden has gone ahead and launched the site .
It ’ s a sign that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ win , he expects to win within days or hours , and he ’ s preparing to hit the ground running the minute the media declares him the winner – whether Trump admits Biden has won or not .

Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support Palmer Report's 2024 efforts by donating now.
-----
-----
When Donald Trump tried to falsely declare victory on television last night, most observers simply rolled their eyes. When Trump again tried to falsely declare victory on Twitter today, Twitter cracked down on his tweets. JoeBiden hasn’t tried to declare victory, even though he’s on a solid path to winning.
Now Joe Biden is making an aggressive move by launching his transition website, buildbackbetter.com. The page is titled “BIDEN-HARRIS TRANSITION” and it simply includes this text:
“The American people will determine who will serve as the next President of the United States. Votes are still being counted in several states around the country. The crises facing the country are severe — from a pandemic to an economic recession, climate change to racial injustice — and the transition team will continue preparing at full speed so that the Biden-Harris Administration can hit the ground running on Day One.”
There may not be much to the website yet, but it’s still notable that Joe Biden has gone ahead and launched the site. It’s a sign that he knows he’s going to win, he expects to win within days or hours, and he’s preparing to hit the ground running the minute the media declares him the winner – whether Trump admits Biden has won or not.
Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support our 2024 efforts by donating now or sign up for our free mailing list.


palmerreport--2020-11-05--Donald Trump is crashing and burning

Donald Trump is crashing and burning

Donald Trump just lost Wisconsin .
He ’ s a few hours away from losing Michigan .
Within a day or two , he ’ ll likely have lost the electoral college .
It ’ s all over for him politically .
He knows it too .
If he were any other politician , he ’ d be looking at the best way to concede and go out with some dignity .
Of course Donald Trump isn ’ t any other politician .
First of all , he ’ s a clinically deranged career criminal , traitor , and mass @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this election , he ’ s earmarked for prison ; it ’ ll be a matter of whether New York State or the federal government gets him first .
He can try to pardon himself on federal charges , but not state charges .
In other words , Trump can ’ t just concede and walk away .
Instead he has to play the fool by chasing a Wisconsin recount he can ’ t win , tweeting insane false conspiracy theories that Twitter keeps taking down , and ensuring that his legacy is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by falsely declaring victory on his way to a clear loss .
The fact that Donald Trump is going to prison if he loses doesn ’ t mean that his last ditch schemes are somehow going to save him .
Instead it means he ’ s simply going to keep humiliating himself on his way out .
It ’ s a dangerous time for the nation .
But it ’ s an even more dangerous time for Trump , who is now on track to lose everything and go to prison .

Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support Palmer Report's 2024 efforts by donating now.
-----
-----
Donald Trump just lost Wisconsin. He’s a few hours away from losing Michigan. Within a day or two, he’ll likely have lost the electoral college. It’s all over for him politically. He knows it too. If he were any other politician, he’d be looking at the best way to concede and go out with some dignity.
Of course Donald Trump isn’t any other politician. First of all, he’s a clinically deranged career criminal, traitor, and mass murderer. Second, when he loses this election, he’s earmarked for prison; it’ll be a matter of whether New York State or the federal government gets him first. He can try to pardon himself on federal charges, but not state charges.
In other words, Trump can’t just concede and walk away. Instead he has to play the fool by chasing a Wisconsin recount he can’t win, tweeting insane false conspiracy theories that Twitter keeps taking down, and ensuring that his legacy is that of a clown who humiliated himself by falsely declaring victory on his way to a clear loss.
The fact that Donald Trump is going to prison if he loses doesn’t mean that his last ditch schemes are somehow going to save him. Instead it means he’s simply going to keep humiliating himself on his way out. It’s a dangerous time for the nation. But it’s an even more dangerous time for Trump, who is now on track to lose everything and go to prison.
Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support our 2024 efforts by donating now or sign up for our free mailing list.


Where’s Trump?

After Joe Biden spoke on television late last night and expressed confidence in his odds , Donald Trump held his own press conference at nearly 2:30am .
He looked and sounded terrible , and his false declaration of victory got him nowhere .
Now Trump has disappeared entirely .
When his campaign held a press conference today to promote wacky conspiracy theories , it was led by Eric Trump of all people , with an assist ( if you can call it that ) from Rudy Giuliani .
Donald Trump was nowhere to be found .
Joe Biden spoke to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ confidence in his odds .
But this time Donald Trump failed to counter it .
He ’ s been posting deranged tweets , declaring victory in states he ’ s on track to lose , but it ’ s not clear if he or his handlers have written these tweets .
The thing is , Donald Trump has disappeared entirely .
It ’ s not clear if he ’ s lying low as a strategy , or if he ’ s too dejected to get into the game , or if he ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , it ’ s really odd that he sent his idiot son out there this afternoon to hold an election press conference , instead of doing it himself .
It ’ s not how the ever narcissistic Donald Trump usually operates .

Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support Palmer Report's 2024 efforts by donating now.
-----
-----
After Joe Biden spoke on television late last night and expressed confidence in his odds, Donald Trump held his own press conference at nearly 2:30am. He looked and sounded terrible, and his false declaration of victory got him nowhere.
Now Trump has disappeared entirely. When his campaign held a press conference today to promote wacky conspiracy theories, it was led by Eric Trump of all people, with an assist (if you can call it that) from Rudy Giuliani. Donald Trump was nowhere to be found.
Joe Biden spoke to the cameras today to once again express confidence in his odds. But this time Donald Trump failed to counter it. He’s been posting deranged tweets, declaring victory in states he’s on track to lose, but it’s not clear if he or his handlers have written these tweets.
The thing is, Donald Trump has disappeared entirely. It’s not clear if he’s lying low as a strategy, or if he’s too dejected to get into the game, or if he’s physically unwell. In any case, it’s really odd that he sent his idiot son out there this afternoon to hold an election press conference, instead of doing it himself. It’s not how the ever narcissistic Donald Trump usually operates.
Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support our 2024 efforts by donating now or sign up for our free mailing list.


palmerreport--2020-11-04--Donald Trump’s mood “darkens” as he realizes he’s going to lose and his allies abandon him

With Donald Trump creeping ever closer to losing the 2020 election , and his behavior is continuing to become more @ @ @ @ @ already seen some of his allies publicly call him out for it .
Chris Christie @ @ @ @ @ on TV and criticized Trump for falsely declaring victory last night , for instance .
@ @ @ @ @ s allies are also turning against him behind the scenes .
CNN ’ s Jim @ @ @ @ @ that because Trump is taking such indefensible positions as falsely declaring victory in states he @ @ @ @ @ he ’ s now “ bleeding GOP support.
” As this plays out , Trump @ @ @ @ @ ” In other words , the House and Senate Republicans who have survived the 2020 @ @ @ @ @ selfishly stand by and let him sink , instead of risking their own viability by @ @ @ @ @ antics , which are likely to backfire on him in the court of public opinion @

Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support Palmer Report's 2024 efforts by donating now.
-----
-----
With Donald Trump creeping ever closer to losing the 2020 election, and his behavior is continuing to become more shameful, we’ve already seen some of his allies publicly call him out for it. Chris Christie and Rick Santorum both went on TV and criticized Trump for falsely declaring victory last night, for instance.
It turns out Trump’s allies are also turning against him behind the scenes. CNN’s Jim Acosta just reported on air that because Trump is taking such indefensible positions as falsely declaring victory in states he hasn’t won, he’s now “bleeding GOP support.” As this plays out, Trump’s mood “darkens.”
In other words, the House and Senate Republicans who have survived the 2020 election are now planning to selfishly stand by and let him sink, instead of risking their own viability by going along with his embarrassing antics, which are likely to backfire on him in the court of public opinion.
Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support our 2024 efforts by donating now or sign up for our free mailing list.


palmerreport--2020-11-04--Donald Trump goes completely berserk after he loses Michigan

Multiple major news outlets have now called Michigan for Joe Biden , after they called Wisconsin for Biden earlier this afternoon .
This means that , if Arizona holds up as expected , Biden is now one state away from winning the election .
Donald Trump isn ’ t taking the news well .
He posted this extraordinarily bizarre tweet , which we expect Twitter will plaster over with a warning label any minute now : We have claimed , for Electoral Vote purposes , the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania ( which won ’ t allow legal observers ) the State @ @ @ @ @ @ @ North Carolina , each one of which has a BIG Trump lead .
Additionally , we hereby claim the State of Michigan if , in fact there was a large number of secretly dumped ballots as has been widely reported !
To be clear , there are no credible reports of any kind about “ secretly dumped ballots ” in Michigan .
Also , Biden appears to be on track to win Pennsylvania , and Georgia seems to be slightly leaning toward Biden .
This tweet reeks of absolute desperation , from someone @ @ @ @ @ @ @

Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support Palmer Report's 2024 efforts by donating now.
-----
-----
Multiple major news outlets have now called Michigan for Joe Biden, after they called Wisconsin for Biden earlier this afternoon. This means that, if Arizona holds up as expected, Biden is now one state away from winning the election.
Donald Trump isn’t taking the news well. He posted this extraordinarily bizarre tweet, which we expect Twitter will plaster over with a warning label any minute now:
We have claimed, for Electoral Vote purposes, the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania (which won’t allow legal observers) the State of Georgia, and the State of North Carolina, each one of which has a BIG Trump lead. Additionally, we hereby claim the State of Michigan if, in fact there was a large number of secretly dumped ballots as has been widely reported!
To be clear, there are no credible reports of any kind about “secretly dumped ballots” in Michigan. Also, Biden appears to be on track to win Pennsylvania, and Georgia seems to be slightly leaning toward Biden. This tweet reeks of absolute desperation, from someone who knows he’s losing.
Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support our 2024 efforts by donating now or sign up for our free mailing list.


palmerreport--2020-11-04--Joe Biden has won Michigan!

Joe Biden has won Michigan!

Earlier this afternoon , multiple major news outlets called Wisconsin for Joe Biden .
Just now , CNN , MSNBC @ @ @ @ @ for Biden .
This is a huge deal , for a couple different reasons .
@ @ @ @ @ Joe Biden merely needs to win one of the remaining three states : Nevada , @ @ @ @ @ If and when Biden wins one of these states , he ’ ll have won @ @ @ @ @ it appears Biden will win Michigan by a much larger margin than he won Wisconsin @ @ @ @ @ comes to putting down Trump ’ s ridiculous argument that he ’ s somehow magically @ @ @ @ @ around .

Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support Palmer Report's 2024 efforts by donating now.
-----
-----
Earlier this afternoon, multiple major news outlets called Wisconsin for Joe Biden. Just now, CNN, MSNBC and others also called Michigan for Biden. This is a huge deal, for a couple different reasons.
First, it means that Joe Biden merely needs to win one of the remaining three states: Nevada, Georgia, or Pennsylvania. If and when Biden wins one of these states, he’ll have won the election.
Second, it appears Biden will win Michigan by a much larger margin than he won Wisconsin. This helps when it comes to putting down Trump’s ridiculous argument that he’s somehow magically going to turn this all around.
Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support our 2024 efforts by donating now or sign up for our free mailing list.


palmerreport--2020-11-04--Eric Trump shits the bed

Eric Trump shits the bed

Joe Biden has won Wisconsin , he ’ s about to win Michigan , and he appears to be on a path to win Pennsylvania .
It ’ s all slipping away from Donald Trump quickly .
Biden will be president-elect within days if not hours .
So now Team Trump is panicking in absurd fashion .
For instance , Eric Trump just falsely tweeted “ We have won Pennsylvania !
” Within minutes , Twitter slapped a warning label on his tweet , pointing out that no one has actually called Pennsylvania for Trump , and no one is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ McEnany tweeted “ VICTORY for President @ realDonaldTrump in PENNSYLVANIA !
!
” But those extra exclamation points didn ’ t help her any , because Twitter slapped a warning label on her tweet as well .
Donald Trump got absolutely nowhere last night when he stepped in front of the cameras and falsely declared victory .
He and his people will get nowhere today by falsely declaring on Twitter that they ’ ve won Pennsylvania .
All this ensures is that Trump will be humiliated on his way out the door .

Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support Palmer Report's 2024 efforts by donating now.
-----
-----
Joe Biden has won Wisconsin, he’s about to win Michigan, and he appears to be on a path to win Pennsylvania. It’s all slipping away from Donald Trump quickly. Biden will be president-elect within days if not hours. So now Team Trump is panicking in absurd fashion.
For instance, Eric Trump just falsely tweeted “We have won Pennsylvania!” Within minutes, Twitter slapped a warning label on his tweet, pointing out that no one has actually called Pennsylvania for Trump, and no one is even close to doing so. Kayleigh McEnany tweeted “VICTORY for President @realDonaldTrump in PENNSYLVANIA!!” But those extra exclamation points didn’t help her any, because Twitter slapped a warning label on her tweet as well.
Donald Trump got absolutely nowhere last night when he stepped in front of the cameras and falsely declared victory. He and his people will get nowhere today by falsely declaring on Twitter that they’ve won Pennsylvania. All this ensures is that Trump will be humiliated on his way out the door.
Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support our 2024 efforts by donating now or sign up for our free mailing list.


palmerreport--2020-11-04--Looks like Joe Biden is on a path to win Pennsylvania

Now that Joe Biden has won Wisconsin and he ’ s about to win Michigan , we ’ re just waiting to see whether Nevada , Pennsylvania , or Georgia ends up putting Biden over the top .
Here ’ s the thing : Biden appears to be on a path to win Pennsylvania .
That may sound daunting , considering just how far behind Biden is in the partial vote count in the state .
But if you watched the Wisconsin and Michigan results last night and this morning , you saw that Biden was behind by high amounts @ @ @ @ @ @ @ up by even huger amounts once the mail-in ballots from the big cities were finally reported .
We think the numbers suggest that the same thing will happen in Pennsylvania .
Yes , Trump ’ s ( temporary ) lead is even larger there .
But the number of outstanding mail-in votes in places like Philadelphia is even larger .
We ’ re not the only ones who see it that way ; NYT analyst Nate Cohn just tweeted that “ everything there is still consistent with Biden eventually taking the lead.
” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ doesn ’ t need Pennsylvania in order to win , it helps give him a cushion .
It ’ ll also make it that much harder for Donald Trump to convince anyone that he somehow magically won .

Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support Palmer Report's 2024 efforts by donating now.
-----
-----
Now that Joe Biden has won Wisconsin and he’s about to win Michigan, we’re just waiting to see whether Nevada, Pennsylvania, or Georgia ends up putting Biden over the top.
Here’s the thing: Biden appears to be on a path to win Pennsylvania. That may sound daunting, considering just how far behind Biden is in the partial vote count in the state. But if you watched the Wisconsin and Michigan results last night and this morning, you saw that Biden was behind by high amounts in both states, only to catch up by even huger amounts once the mail-in ballots from the big cities were finally reported.
We think the numbers suggest that the same thing will happen in Pennsylvania. Yes, Trump’s (temporary) lead is even larger there. But the number of outstanding mail-in votes in places like Philadelphia is even larger. We’re not the only ones who see it that way; NYT analyst Nate Cohn just tweeted that “everything there is still consistent with Biden eventually taking the lead.”
This is notable because while Joe Biden doesn’t need Pennsylvania in order to win, it helps give him a cushion. It’ll also make it that much harder for Donald Trump to convince anyone that he somehow magically won.
Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support our 2024 efforts by donating now or sign up for our free mailing list.


palmerreport--2020-11-04--Joe Biden wins Wisconsin as Donald Trump freaks out

It ’ s been fairly clear since he took the lead at 5:00 this morning , and it ’ s been obvious since the last of the votes came in a couple hours ago .
But now it ’ s been cemented : NBC and CNN have called Wisconsin for Joe Biden .
Now Donald Trump is freaking out .
The Donald Trump campaign has announced that it ’ s formally requesting a recount in Wisconsin .
To be clear , this isn ’ t going to work .
Recounts don ’ t tend to change results more than a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ) , and Biden has won Wisconsin by more than 20,000 votes .
At the same time Trump is demanding that the votes in Wisconsin be counted a second time , he just filed suit to stop the remainder of the ballots in Michigan from being counted the first time .
This isn ’ t just hypocritical ; it ’ s a self defeating legal strategy , as Trump ’ s recount request negates his argument for expediency .
Besides , Joe Biden is already ahead in Michigan , by nearly 50,000 votes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ halt the vote counting in a state that he ’ s losing .
This is an incoherently dumb approach .
But Trump has been backed into the kind of corner where the only options he has left are dumb ones .
In any case , we expect Michigan to be called for Joe Biden at some point later today .
Some news outlets have already called Arizona for Biden .
This means we ’ ll wait to see if Nevada , Georgia , or Pennsylvania puts Biden over the top .
That could @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this point it seems very likely Biden will win , and Trump has no real recourse .

Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support Palmer Report's 2024 efforts by donating now.
-----
-----
It’s been fairly clear since he took the lead at 5:00 this morning, and it’s been obvious since the last of the votes came in a couple hours ago. But now it’s been cemented: NBC and CNN have called Wisconsin for Joe Biden. Now Donald Trump is freaking out.
The Donald Trump campaign has announced that it’s formally requesting a recount in Wisconsin. To be clear, this isn’t going to work. Recounts don’t tend to change results more than a very tiny amount (few hundred votes), and Biden has won Wisconsin by more than 20,000 votes.
At the same time Trump is demanding that the votes in Wisconsin be counted a second time, he just filed suit to stop the remainder of the ballots in Michigan from being counted the first time. This isn’t just hypocritical; it’s a self defeating legal strategy, as Trump’s recount request negates his argument for expediency.
Besides, Joe Biden is already ahead in Michigan, by nearly 50,000 votes. Donald Trump is literally trying to halt the vote counting in a state that he’s losing. This is an incoherently dumb approach. But Trump has been backed into the kind of corner where the only options he has left are dumb ones.
In any case, we expect Michigan to be called for Joe Biden at some point later today. Some news outlets have already called Arizona for Biden. This means we’ll wait to see if Nevada, Georgia, or Pennsylvania puts Biden over the top. That could take hours or days – but at this point it seems very likely Biden will win, and Trump has no real recourse.
Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support our 2024 efforts by donating now or sign up for our free mailing list.


palmerreport--2020-11-04--Joe Biden issues statement as he pulls ahead

Earlier this morning Joe Biden pulled ahead in Wisconsin and Michigan , as the mail-in ballots were finally counted .
@ @ @ @ @ the apparent winner in Wisconsin and the very likely winner in Michigan .
If his @ @ @ @ @ up , he ’ ll be President , whether or not he wins Pennsylvania or @ @ @ @ @ for a few reasons .
First , Joe Biden is stating that he ’ ll @ @ @ @ @ .
Thus far the only state he ’ s officially flipped is Arizona ( called @ @ @ @ @ News ) .
So Biden appears to be confirming that he ’ s going to @ @ @ @ @ In addition , Joe Biden appears to be emphasizing the fact that he ’ s @ @ @ @ @ solid majority of the popular vote , and to receive a historically large number of @ @

Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support Palmer Report's 2024 efforts by donating now.
-----
-----
Earlier this morning Joe Biden pulled ahead in Wisconsin and Michigan, as the mail-in ballots were finally counted. In our view Biden is the apparent winner in Wisconsin and the very likely winner in Michigan. If his lead in Nevada also holds up, he’ll be President, whether or not he wins Pennsylvania or Georgia.
Minutes ago Joe Biden posted this statement on Facebook:
This is notable for a few reasons. First, Joe Biden is stating that he’ll flip at least three states. Thus far the only state he’s officially flipped is Arizona (called by Associated Press and Fox News). So Biden appears to be confirming that he’s going to win Wisconsin and Michighan.
In addition, Joe Biden appears to be emphasizing the fact that he’s on track to win a solid majority of the popular vote, and to receive a historically large number of votes.
Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support our 2024 efforts by donating now or sign up for our free mailing list.


palmerreport--2020-11-04--Joe Biden pulls ahead, Donald Trump melts down about it, Twitter cracks down on him

Wisconsin Elections Commission Administrator Meagan Wolfe just announced on NBC News that “ all of the ballots have indeed been counted ” in the state .
This is a big deal because Biden is ahead by about 21,000 votes .
No news outlet has called the state quite yet , but this mathematically means that Biden is the unofficial , likely , apparent , winner .
Meanwhile Joe Biden pulled ahead in Michigan earlier this morning , and there is strong reason to believe that his lead there will continue to widen as the final ballots come in from Biden-friendly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Michigan – along with Nevada , where he maintains a slim lead – then he ’ ll be President of the United States without even needing Pennsylvania or Georgia .
Suffice it to say that Donald Trump isn ’ t taking the news well .
He tweeted a phony map which falsely claimed that Biden got 100 % of late votes , adding “ WHAT IS THIS ALL ABOUT ?
” In response , Twitter quickly pasted over his tweet with a warning label about it being misleading .
Twitter also pasted over @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is certain , it ’ s now clear that Joe Biden is likely to win the election – and Donald Trump knows it .
No wonder he ’ s melting down .

Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support Palmer Report's 2024 efforts by donating now.
-----
-----
Wisconsin Elections Commission Administrator Meagan Wolfe just announced on NBC News that “all of the ballots have indeed been counted” in the state. This is a big deal because Biden is ahead by about 21,000 votes. No news outlet has called the state quite yet, but this mathematically means that Biden is the unofficial, likely, apparent, winner.
Meanwhile Joe Biden pulled ahead in Michigan earlier this morning, and there is strong reason to believe that his lead there will continue to widen as the final ballots come in from Biden-friendly districts. If Biden wins Wisconsin and Michigan – along with Nevada, where he maintains a slim lead – then he’ll be President of the United States without even needing Pennsylvania or Georgia.
Suffice it to say that Donald Trump isn’t taking the news well. He tweeted a phony map which falsely claimed that Biden got 100% of late votes, adding “WHAT IS THIS ALL ABOUT?” In response, Twitter quickly pasted over his tweet with a warning label about it being misleading. Twitter also pasted over another conspiratorial Trump tweet.
While nothing is certain, it’s now clear that Joe Biden is likely to win the election – and Donald Trump knows it. No wonder he’s melting down.
Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support our 2024 efforts by donating now or sign up for our free mailing list.


palmerreport--2020-11-04--Wisconsin is breaking big for Joe Biden; Michigan also trending toward Biden

At 11pm last night , I said “ Trump is ABSOLUTELY NOT AHEAD in Wisconsin , Michigan , or Pennsylvania.
” I wasn ’ t kidding .
It was just the red mirage that the experts warned us about .
Now Wisconsin is breaking big for Biden , and Michigan is also looking good .
MSNBC has Biden ahead by 21,000 votes in Wisconsin .
Decision Desk has Biden ahead by 17,000 votes in Wisconsin .
Take your pick , either way it ’ s good news for Biden – not just because he ’ s ahead , but because @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to be friendly to him as well .
Then there ’ s Michigan , where at last count Trump is ahead by about 2,200 votes – but the Michigan Secretary of State appeared on CNN early this morning and confirmed that there are huge numbers of outstanding votes centered in places like Detroit – which we all know are going to trend toward Biden .
So there you have it , for now .
Wisconsin appears very likely for Biden , and Michigan also appears likely .
If Biden wins them both , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ win one state out of Nevada , Pennsylvania , and Georgia to cross the threshold and become President .

Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support Palmer Report's 2024 efforts by donating now.
-----
-----
At 11pm last night, I said “Trump is ABSOLUTELY NOT AHEAD in Wisconsin, Michigan, or Pennsylvania.” I wasn’t kidding. It was just the red mirage that the experts warned us about. Now Wisconsin is breaking big for Biden, and Michigan is also looking good.
MSNBC has Biden ahead by 21,000 votes in Wisconsin. Decision Desk has Biden ahead by 17,000 votes in Wisconsin. Take your pick, either way it’s good news for Biden – not just because he’s ahead, but because the remaining uncounted votes are widely believed to be friendly to him as well.
Then there’s Michigan, where at last count Trump is ahead by about 2,200 votes – but the Michigan Secretary of State appeared on CNN early this morning and confirmed that there are huge numbers of outstanding votes centered in places like Detroit – which we all know are going to trend toward Biden.
So there you have it, for now. Wisconsin appears very likely for Biden, and Michigan also appears likely. If Biden wins them both, then he’ll just have to win one state out of Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Georgia to cross the threshold and become President.
Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support our 2024 efforts by donating now or sign up for our free mailing list.


palmerreport--2020-11-04--Here’s what it comes down to now

Here’s what it comes down to now

In the end , it all comes down to five states .
The good news for Joe Biden is that the states he needs to win seem to be trending in his direction as the sun is coming up .
Joe Biden has clearly pulled ahead in Wisconsin .
Decision Desk has him up by about 17,000 votes ; MSNBC has him up by about 21,000 votes .
Kornacki just said on air that there isn ’ t much left to come in for Wisconsin one way or the other .
An hour ago Joe Biden was down by a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ but now Decision Desk says he ’ s behind by just 2,200 votes .
With most of the uncounted votes in Biden-friendly places like Detroit , expert Nate Cohn tweeted that it ’ s trending toward Biden and that it “ may not be particularly close.
” We should potentially know the Wisconsin and Michigan results by sometime later today .
If Joe Biden wins them both , then he ’ ll only need to win one state out of Nevada , Pennsylvania , and .
Georgia .
Nevada has turned out to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ seeing a “ pretty good set of news ” for Biden in the state .
Pennsylvania and Georgia could go either way at this point .
But if Biden wins Nevada , Michigan and Wisconsin , then he ’ s at 270 , it ’ s over , and won ’ t have to wait for Pennsylvania or Georgia .
From here on out , this election will come down to two things : 1 ) math , and 2 ) understanding the demographics of the remaining uncounted voters .
If you ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is the time to listen to Kornacki ( or his CNN counterpart ) , not the political commentators who are musing about their gut feelings .

Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support Palmer Report's 2024 efforts by donating now.
-----
-----
In the end, it all comes down to five states. The good news for Joe Biden is that the states he needs to win seem to be trending in his direction as the sun is coming up.
Joe Biden has clearly pulled ahead in Wisconsin. Decision Desk has him up by about 17,000 votes; MSNBC has him up by about 21,000 votes. Kornacki just said on air that there isn’t much left to come in for Wisconsin one way or the other.
An hour ago Joe Biden was down by a couple hundred thousand votes in Michigan, but now Decision Desk says he’s behind by just 2,200 votes. With most of the uncounted votes in Biden-friendly places like Detroit, expert Nate Cohn tweeted that it’s trending toward Biden and that it “may not be particularly close.”
We should potentially know the Wisconsin and Michigan results by sometime later today. If Joe Biden wins them both, then he’ll only need to win one state out of Nevada, Pennsylvania, and. Georgia.
Nevada has turned out to be surprisingly close, but Cohn is seeing a “pretty good set of news” for Biden in the state. Pennsylvania and Georgia could go either way at this point. But if Biden wins Nevada, Michigan and Wisconsin, then he’s at 270, it’s over, and won’t have to wait for Pennsylvania or Georgia.
From here on out, this election will come down to two things: 1) math, and 2) understanding the demographics of the remaining uncounted voters. If you’re watching this on TV, now is the time to listen to Kornacki (or his CNN counterpart), not the political commentators who are musing about their gut feelings. Facebook ShareTwitter ShareEmail this article Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support our 2024 efforts by donating now or sign up for our free mailing list. Print ArticleLinkedinGoogleWhatsappPinterestRedditStumbleuponBufferTumblrPocketLine


palmerreport--2020-11-04--Joe Biden closing the gap in Michigan [Updated]

After hours and hours of seeing “ red mirage ” numbers in the midwest which skewed heavily toward in-person and same-day voting and therefore artificially favored Donald Trump , we ’ re finally seeing the cavalry arrive .
The big news is that as of 5:00am eastern time , Joe Biden has pulled ahead in Wisconsin by about 18,500 votes .
This doesn ’ t mean Biden will win for sure ; it ’ s believed that about 4 % of the votes are still outstanding .
But based on demographics we expect Biden will fare well in the remaining @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ( and hangs onto his lead in Nevada ) , he ’ ll only need to win one more state out of Michigan Pennsylvania , and Georgia .
So the good news for Biden is that he ’ s closing the gap in Michigan as the night goes on .
As of 4:59am , Joe Biden was behind in Michigan by 74,000 votes .
As of 5:04am , Biden is behind in Michigan by 70,000 votes .
Based on the much larger gap that Biden closed in Wisconsin when the final voting dump @ @ @ @ @ @ @ believe Biden can win Michigan as well .
But Michigan says it may not have final results until noon .
Update , 5:50am : Decision Desk has now drastically revised its Michigan numbers due to an apparent typo , and now Trump is ahead by 198,000 votes .
That said , with Detroit and other Democratic strongholds yet to come in , Biden still has a good shot in Michigan .

Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support Palmer Report's 2024 efforts by donating now.
-----
-----
After hours and hours of seeing “red mirage” numbers in the midwest which skewed heavily toward in-person and same-day voting and therefore artificially favored Donald Trump, we’re finally seeing the cavalry arrive.
The big news is that as of 5:00am eastern time, Joe Biden has pulled ahead in Wisconsin by about 18,500 votes. This doesn’t mean Biden will win for sure; it’s believed that about 4% of the votes are still outstanding. But based on demographics we expect Biden will fare well in the remaining uncounted votes.
If Biden wins Wisconsin (and hangs onto his lead in Nevada), he’ll only need to win one more state out of Michigan Pennsylvania, and Georgia. So the good news for Biden is that he’s closing the gap in Michigan as the night goes on.
As of 4:59am, Joe Biden was behind in Michigan by 74,000 votes. As of 5:04am, Biden is behind in Michigan by 70,000 votes. Based on the much larger gap that Biden closed in Wisconsin when the final voting dump came in, there is reason to believe Biden can win Michigan as well. But Michigan says it may not have final results until noon. Update, 5:50am: Decision Desk has now drastically revised its Michigan numbers due to an apparent typo, and now Trump is ahead by 198,000 votes. That said, with Detroit and other Democratic strongholds yet to come in, Biden still has a good shot in Michigan.
Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support our 2024 efforts by donating now or sign up for our free mailing list.


palmerreport--2020-11-04--Joe Biden pulls ahead in Wisconsin

Joe Biden pulls ahead in Wisconsin

When the results first started coming in from Wisconsin , they showed Donald Trump way ahead – but that was @ @ @ @ @ heavily skewed in favor of same day votes .
As the night has dragged on @ @ @ @ @ Joe Biden gradually catch up – and now he ’ s pulled ahead .
Decision @ @ @ @ @ Biden is ahead of Trump by about 18,500 votes , with at least some votes @ @ @ @ @ .
MSNBC and CNN have also confirmed on-air that Biden has pulled ahead .
This @ @ @ @ @ certain that Joe Biden is going to win Wisconsin .
But if he does , @ @ @ @ @ lead in Nevada holds up , then Biden will only have to win one out @ @ @ @ @ Michigan , Pennsylvania , Georgia .

Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support Palmer Report's 2024 efforts by donating now.
-----
-----
When the results first started coming in from Wisconsin, they showed Donald Trump way ahead – but that was only because the results were heavily skewed in favor of same day votes. As the night has dragged on, we’ve watched Joe Biden gradually catch up – and now he’s pulled ahead.
Decision Desk is now reporting that Biden is ahead of Trump by about 18,500 votes, with at least some votes yet to still come in. MSNBC and CNN have also confirmed on-air that Biden has pulled ahead.
This doesn’t mean for certain that Joe Biden is going to win Wisconsin. But if he does, and if Biden’s lead in Nevada holds up, then Biden will only have to win one out of these three states: Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia.
Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support our 2024 efforts by donating now or sign up for our free mailing list.


palmerreport--2020-11-04--Joe Biden officially wins Arizona, clarifying his path to victory

Hours ago , Fox News called Arizona for Joe Biden , before any other major news outlet had done so @ @ @ @ @ campaign threw a fit about it , insisting that it wasn ’ t true .
@ @ @ @ @ has called Arizona for Biden , making it official .
This means Biden has officially @ @ @ @ @ .
It also makes Biden ’ s math a lot easier .
If Biden ’ @ @ @ @ @ Nevada , then he ’ ll only need Michigan and Wisconsin in order to get @ @ @ @ @ Biden can win even without Pennsylvania or Georgia .
This is a big deal .
@ @ @ @ @ getting properly counted , the current “ red mirage ” numbers in Michigan , Wisconsin @ @ @ @ @ to unskew .
We expect Joe Biden will pull ahead more quickly in Michigan and @ @ @ @ @ a bigger margin , than in Pennsylvania .

Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support Palmer Report's 2024 efforts by donating now.
-----
-----
Hours ago, Fox News called Arizona for Joe Biden, before any other major news outlet had done so. Donald Trump and his campaign threw a fit about it, insisting that it wasn’t true. But now the Associated Press has called Arizona for Biden, making it official.
This means Biden has officially flipped a Trump 2016 state. It also makes Biden’s math a lot easier. If Biden’s lead holds up in Nevada, then he’ll only need Michigan and Wisconsin in order to get to 270. That means Biden can win even without Pennsylvania or Georgia.
This is a big deal. As the mail-in ballots start getting properly counted, the current “red mirage” numbers in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania will start to unskew. We expect Joe Biden will pull ahead more quickly in Michigan and Wisconsin, and win by a bigger margin, than in Pennsylvania.
Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support our 2024 efforts by donating now or sign up for our free mailing list.


palmerreport--2020-11-04--Donald Trump just blew it

Donald Trump just blew it

The first rule of having an evil secret plan is that you need to maintain the element of surprise to work in your favor .
Donald Trump , either through psychological defect or cognitive failure , simply doesn ’ t seem to understand this .
Days ago , the news broke that Donald Trump was planning to falsely declare victory on election night even if he was losing .
Then Trump all but confirmed it on Twitter .
This was incredibly stupid on his part , because it gave everyone from the media to Democratic Party lawyers an opportunity to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for it .
Sure enough , when Trump went on Twitter at 12:49am and falsely claimed “ We are up BIG , but they are trying to STEAL the Election , ” Twitter quickly plastered over his tweet with a warning label .
And when Trump went to the podium at 2:21am and falsely declared victory , the TV networks promptly blasted him for it and disputed his claims .
We don ’ t know what impact , if any , Donald Trump might have been able to have if he ’ d @ @ @ @ @ @ @ blue tonight .
But because he telegraphed it , Trump unwittingly ensured that his speech tonight had no impact at all , other than to embarrass him .

Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support Palmer Report's 2024 efforts by donating now.
-----
-----
The first rule of having an evil secret plan is that you need to maintain the element of surprise to work in your favor. Donald Trump, either through psychological defect or cognitive failure, simply doesn’t seem to understand this.
Days ago, the news broke that Donald Trump was planning to falsely declare victory on election night even if he was losing. Then Trump all but confirmed it on Twitter. This was incredibly stupid on his part, because it gave everyone from the media to Democratic Party lawyers an opportunity to get out ahead of it and strategize for it.
Sure enough, when Trump went on Twitter at 12:49am and falsely claimed “We are up BIG, but they are trying to STEAL the Election,” Twitter quickly plastered over his tweet with a warning label. And when Trump went to the podium at 2:21am and falsely declared victory, the TV networks promptly blasted him for it and disputed his claims.
We don’t know what impact, if any, Donald Trump might have been able to have if he’d pulled this on us out of the blue tonight. But because he telegraphed it, Trump unwittingly ensured that his speech tonight had no impact at all, other than to embarrass him.
Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support our 2024 efforts by donating now or sign up for our free mailing list.


palmerreport--2020-11-04--Donald Trump goes on TV after 2:00am and sniffs his way through whiny meltdown as it all slips away

Donald Trump goes on TV after 2:00am and sniffs his way through whiny meltdown as it all slips away from him

Nearly an hour and a half after he tweeted that he was going to speak , Donald Trump finally found his way to the podium at 2:21 in the morning .
For some reason he trotted out nearly his entire family before speaking , making the whole thing even more bizarre .
Trump insisted that he ’ s winning , but a “ sad group of people ” is now trying to take it away from him .
Trump said “ we were winning everything , and all of the sudden it was just called off.
” It ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ been called off .
Trump went on to falsely claim that he ’ s won Georgia , when the New York Times is currently giving Joe Biden 63 % odds of winning the state .
Trump also ranted about the fact that Fox News called Arizona for Biden .
As expected , Trump harped on the fact that he ’ s currently ahead in the vote count in Pennsylvania and Michigan , while conveniently leaving out the fact that this is only because the totals in those states are currently skewed in favor @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the mail-in votes yet to be counted .
It ’ s still unclear why Donald Trump is speaking at all tonight , beyond the fact that Joe Biden spoke and Trump decided he wanted attention .
He merely came off like a whiny sore loser who sees it all slipping away from him .
MSNBC ended up cutting off Trump ’ s speech before he could finish it .

Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support Palmer Report's 2024 efforts by donating now.
-----
-----
Nearly an hour and a half after he tweeted that he was going to speak, Donald Trump finally found his way to the podium at 2:21 in the morning. For some reason he trotted out nearly his entire family before speaking, making the whole thing even more bizarre.
Trump insisted that he’s winning, but a “sad group of people” is now trying to take it away from him. Trump said “we were winning everything, and all of the sudden it was just called off.” It’s not clear what exactly he thinks has been called off.
Trump went on to falsely claim that he’s won Georgia, when the New York Times is currently giving Joe Biden 63% odds of winning the state. Trump also ranted about the fact that Fox News called Arizona for Biden.
As expected, Trump harped on the fact that he’s currently ahead in the vote count in Pennsylvania and Michigan, while conveniently leaving out the fact that this is only because the totals in those states are currently skewed in favor of same-day voting, with most of the mail-in votes yet to be counted.
It’s still unclear why Donald Trump is speaking at all tonight, beyond the fact that Joe Biden spoke and Trump decided he wanted attention. He merely came off like a whiny sore loser who sees it all slipping away from him. MSNBC ended up cutting off Trump’s speech before he could finish it.
Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support our 2024 efforts by donating now or sign up for our free mailing list.


palmerreport--2020-11-04--It’s trending in Joe Biden’s direction

It’s trending in Joe Biden’s direction

It would have been nice if Joe Biden could have flipped a southern state early and put this election out of its misery as quickly as possible .
But as the night goes on , things are continuing to trend significantly in Biden ’ s direction : – Joe Biden has won Minnesota handily ( CNN and MSNBC ) , and he appears to be on track to win Nevada .
This means Trump won ’ t flip a single state from 2016 .
– Biden has won Arizona , according to Fox News .
Biden is ahead in Arizona @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Biden has also won Nebraska ’ s second congressional district ( CNN , MSNBC , Fox News ) .
This means that if Nevada and Arizona hold up for Biden , he can get to 270 simply by winning Wisconsin and Michigan , even without Pennsylvania and Georgia .
– The initial “ red mirage ” numbers out of Wisconsin , Michigan , and Pennsylvania are likely to shift in Joe Biden ’ s favor once the mail-in votes start getting properly counted .
That won ’ t happen until tomorrow .
But @ @ @ @ @ @ @ three states , we expect he ’ ll win Wisconsin and Michigan more decisively and sooner , meaning this race could be over within another day instead of taking a week .
– If you ’ re worried about Wisconsin and Michigan , consider this : Biden won Minnesota by pretty much the same margin that the polls said he would .
This means that while the polls continue to be wrong in places like Florida , it appears the polls are accurate in the midwest , which is a good sign for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ As a fallback , Joe Biden appears to have decent odds of winning Georgia .
The New York Times currently gives Biden a 63 % chance of winning Georgia , after having leaned heavily toward Trump several hours ago .

Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support Palmer Report's 2024 efforts by donating now.
-----
-----
It would have been nice if Joe Biden could have flipped a southern state early and put this election out of its misery as quickly as possible. But as the night goes on, things are continuing to trend significantly in Biden’s direction:
– Joe Biden has won Minnesota handily (CNN and MSNBC), and he appears to be on track to win Nevada. This means Trump won’t flip a single state from 2016.
– Biden has won Arizona, according to Fox News. Biden is ahead in Arizona according to CNN and MSNBC.
– Biden has also won Nebraska’s second congressional district (CNN, MSNBC, Fox News). This means that if Nevada and Arizona hold up for Biden, he can get to 270 simply by winning Wisconsin and Michigan, even without Pennsylvania and Georgia.
– The initial “red mirage” numbers out of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania are likely to shift in Joe Biden’s favor once the mail-in votes start getting properly counted. That won’t happen until tomorrow. But while we expect Biden to win all three states, we expect he’ll win Wisconsin and Michigan more decisively and sooner, meaning this race could be over within another day instead of taking a week.
– If you’re worried about Wisconsin and Michigan, consider this: Biden won Minnesota by pretty much the same margin that the polls said he would. This means that while the polls continue to be wrong in places like Florida, it appears the polls are accurate in the midwest, which is a good sign for Biden in Wisconsin in Michigan.
– As a fallback, Joe Biden appears to have decent odds of winning Georgia. The New York Times currently gives Biden a 63% chance of winning Georgia, after having leaned heavily toward Trump several hours ago.
Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support our 2024 efforts by donating now or sign up for our free mailing list.


palmerreport--2020-11-04--Where did Donald Trump go?

Where did Donald Trump go?

After Joe Biden spoke tonight and expressed confidence that he would win , Donald Trump immediately tweeted that he would @ @ @ @ @ was nearly an hour ago , and as we approach two in the morning , @ @ @ @ @ sign of Trump .
Trump must be scrambling behind the scenes .
The later he @ @ @ @ @ will watch , and the less impact .
Was he really not prepared for the @ @ @ @ @ to speak tonight ?
It ’ s also possible that Trump ’ s babysitters are @ @ @ @ @ out and declare victory , because doing so would weaken his position all around .
@ @ @ @ @ ?
One can only imagine the chaos and lunacy going on in Trump land right @ @ @ @ @ Then again , with Twitter having already plastered over Donald Trump ’ s false victory @ @ @ @ @ , perhaps Trump is seeing that this whole “ falsely declaring victory ” thing just @ @ @ @ @ go his way .
Will we see him tonight at all ?

Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support Palmer Report's 2024 efforts by donating now.
-----
-----
After Joe Biden spoke tonight and expressed confidence that he would win, Donald Trump immediately tweeted that he would speak too. But that was nearly an hour ago, and as we approach two in the morning, there’s still no sign of Trump.
Trump must be scrambling behind the scenes. The later he waits, the fewer people will watch, and the less impact. Was he really not prepared for the possibility that he would have to speak tonight?
It’s also possible that Trump’s babysitters are begging him not to go out and declare victory, because doing so would weaken his position all around. But an hour? Really? One can only imagine the chaos and lunacy going on in Trump land right now behind the scenes.
Then again, with Twitter having already plastered over Donald Trump’s false victory tweet with a warning label, perhaps Trump is seeing that this whole “falsely declaring victory” thing just isn’t going to go his way. Will we see him tonight at all?
Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support our 2024 efforts by donating now or sign up for our free mailing list.


palmerreport--2020-11-04--Joe Biden wins Nebraska-02, significantly broadening his path to victory

CNN , MSNBC , and Fox News have all now called Nebraska ’ s second congressional district for Joe Biden , meaning Biden will pick up a single electoral vote in the state .
Believe it or not , this is a big deal , because it changes the electoral math entirely .
Fox News is the only outlet thus far to call Arizona for Joe Biden .
But if that holds up , and if Biden wins all the blue states from 2016 , then Wisconsin and Michigan will get him to 269 electoral votes .
The one vote @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 270 , even without or Pennsylvania or Georgia .
The current “ red mirage ” numbers in Wisconsin , Michigan , and Pennsylvania are artificially skewed toward same-day voting , and therefore artificially inflated for Trump .
We expect Biden to win all three states – but Biden is likely to win Wisconsin and Michigan more quickly and by a larger margin .
For this path to victory to hold up for Joe Biden , he still needs a few things to happen .
He needs to win Minnesota , which CNN and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ needs to win Nevada , which expects expect he will .
But Biden now has a path to 270 electoral votes even before Pennsylvania is finished counting .

Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support Palmer Report's 2024 efforts by donating now.
-----
-----
CNN, MSNBC, and Fox News have all now called Nebraska’s second congressional district for Joe Biden, meaning Biden will pick up a single electoral vote in the state. Believe it or not, this is a big deal, because it changes the electoral math entirely.
Fox News is the only outlet thus far to call Arizona for Joe Biden. But if that holds up, and if Biden wins all the blue states from 2016, then Wisconsin and Michigan will get him to 269 electoral votes. The one vote from Nebraska will then get him to 270, even without or Pennsylvania or Georgia.
The current “red mirage” numbers in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania are artificially skewed toward same-day voting, and therefore artificially inflated for Trump. We expect Biden to win all three states – but Biden is likely to win Wisconsin and Michigan more quickly and by a larger margin.
For this path to victory to hold up for Joe Biden, he still needs a few things to happen. He needs to win Minnesota, which CNN and MSNBC have called for him. He needs to win Nevada, which expects expect he will. But Biden now has a path to 270 electoral votes even before Pennsylvania is finished counting.
Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support our 2024 efforts by donating now or sign up for our free mailing list.


palmerreport--2020-11-04--Twitter cracks down on Donald Trump after he has complete meltdown and posts false tweet

At around 12:45am eastern time , Joe Biden – fresh off CNN calling Minnesota for him and Fox News calling @ @ @ @ @ the stage and said he was confident he ’ ll win the election once all @ @ @ @ @ Donald Trump then promptly had a total meltdown , posting this histrionic and factually false @ @ @ @ @ up BIG , but they are trying to STEAL the Election .
We will never @ @ @ @ @ Votes can not be cast after the Polls are closed !
” Within minutes , @ @ @ @ @ s tweet with a warning label which read “ Some or all of the content @ @ @ @ @ disputed and might be misleading about an election or other civic process.
” It appears @ @ @ @ @ take the stage and falsely declare victory in a rage , but at this point @ @ @ @ @ to laugh at him .

Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support Palmer Report's 2024 efforts by donating now.
-----
-----
At around 12:45am eastern time, Joe Biden – fresh off CNN calling Minnesota for him and Fox News calling Arizona for him – took the stage and said he was confident he’ll win the election once all the votes are counted.
Donald Trump then promptly had a total meltdown, posting this histrionic and factually false tweet: “We are up BIG, but they are trying to STEAL the Election. We will never let them do it. Votes cannot be cast after the Polls are closed!”
Within minutes, Twitter covered up Trump’s tweet with a warning label which read “Some or all of the content shared in this Tweet is disputed and might be misleading about an election or other civic process.”
It appears Donald Trump is about to take the stage and falsely declare victory in a rage, but at this point most people are just going to laugh at him.
Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support our 2024 efforts by donating now or sign up for our free mailing list.


palmerreport--2020-11-04--Joe Biden announces that he expects to win; Donald Trump has complete meltdown in response

At nearly one in the morning eastern time , a confident Joe Biden took to the podium and announced that @ @ @ @ @ election once all the votes are counted in the remaining swing states .
This came @ @ @ @ @ Minnesota for Biden , and Fox News was calling Arizona for Biden .
In response @ @ @ @ @ a total meltdown on Twitter .
First he tweeted “ I will be making a @ @ @ @ @ WIN !
” Then a moment later he added , “ We are up BIG @ @ @ @ @ to STEAL the Election .
We will never let them do it .
Votes can @ @ @ @ @ Polls are closed !
” Well okay then .
Donald Trump is about to make @ @ @ @ @ by trying to falsely declare victory at a time when his path is narrowing and @ @ @ @ @ track to lose .
By doing this , Trump will merely weaken his own position @ @ @ @ @ simply laugh at him .

Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support Palmer Report's 2024 efforts by donating now.
-----
-----
At nearly one in the morning eastern time, a confident Joe Biden took to the podium and announced that he expects to win the election once all the votes are counted in the remaining swing states. This came even as CNN was calling Minnesota for Biden, and Fox News was calling Arizona for Biden.
In response, Donald Trump quickly had a total meltdown on Twitter. First he tweeted “I will be making a statement tonight. A big WIN!” Then a moment later he added, “We are up BIG, but they are trying to STEAL the Election. We will never let them do it. Votes cannot be cast after the Polls are closed!”
Well okay then. Donald Trump is about to make a complete fool of himself by trying to falsely declare victory at a time when his path is narrowing and he’s seemingly on track to lose. By doing this, Trump will merely weaken his own position, as most people will simply laugh at him.
Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support our 2024 efforts by donating now or sign up for our free mailing list.


palmerreport--2020-11-04--CNN just called Minnesota for Joe Biden, and it narrows Donald Trump’s path significantly

At this point Joe Biden ’ s primary path to victory consists of winning Wisconsin , Michigan , and Pennsylvania , and not losing any of the blue states from 2016 .
The good news is he ’ s likely to win Wisconsin , Michigan , and Pennsylvania once the mail-in votes are added to the current skewed vote totals .
The tricky part is Biden can ’ t afford for Trump to flip any states .
That ’ s why it ’ s a big deal that CNN just called Minnesota in favor of Joe Biden .
We always @ @ @ @ @ @ @ but for some reason Donald Trump spent a ton of time and money and resources in the state .
It was as if his internal polls told him he had a good shot there , and he was hoping to flip Minnesota in order to make up for potentially losing Michigan or Wisconsin .
Once the current “ red mirage ” is unskewed in the Michigan , Wisconsin , and Pennsylvania numbers , Joe Biden is likely to be ahead in those states .
Joe Biden is now on track to likely win @

Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support Palmer Report's 2024 efforts by donating now.
-----
-----
At this point Joe Biden’s primary path to victory consists of winning Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, and not losing any of the blue states from 2016. The good news is he’s likely to win Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania once the mail-in votes are added to the current skewed vote totals. The tricky part is Biden can’t afford for Trump to flip any states.
That’s why it’s a big deal that CNN just called Minnesota in favor of Joe Biden. We always thought Minnesota was safe for Biden, but for some reason Donald Trump spent a ton of time and money and resources in the state. It was as if his internal polls told him he had a good shot there, and he was hoping to flip Minnesota in order to make up for potentially losing Michigan or Wisconsin.
Once the current “red mirage” is unskewed in the Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania numbers, Joe Biden is likely to be ahead in those states. Joe Biden is now on track to likely win.
Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support our 2024 efforts by donating now or sign up for our free mailing list.


palmerreport--2020-11-04--Joe Biden’s deputy campaign manager just now: “We’re going to win”

– Joe Biden is about to speak to the public .
No , he ’ s not going to concede or anything crazy like that .
He ’ s on track to win .
In fact his deputy campaign manager Rufus Gifford just tweeted “ we ’ re going to win.
” Biden will likely spell out during his speech that he expects to win the election once the mail-in votes are counted .
– Again , it can ’ t be stressed enough that the current numbers you see on your TV screen in Michigan , Wisconsin , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” effect that the experts warned us about .
Those numbers are heavily skewed toward same-day voting , and thus artificially inflated for Donald Trump .
Those numbers are to be ignored until at least tomorrow morning .
– Claire McCaskill just said on MSNBC that Georgia is a “ total jump ball.
” New York Times now says Georgia is “ tilting Biden.
” This comes a couple hours after it looked like Georgia was a loss for Biden .
I don ’ t know what ’ s going on there .
@ @ @ @ @

Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support Palmer Report's 2024 efforts by donating now.
-----
-----
– Joe Biden is about to speak to the public. No, he’s not going to concede or anything crazy like that. He’s on track to win. In fact his deputy campaign manager Rufus Gifford just tweeted “we’re going to win.” Biden will likely spell out during his speech that he expects to win the election once the mail-in votes are counted.
– Again, it can’t be stressed enough that the current numbers you see on your TV screen in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania are merely the “red mirage” effect that the experts warned us about. Those numbers are heavily skewed toward same-day voting, and thus artificially inflated for Donald Trump. Those numbers are to be ignored until at least tomorrow morning.
– Claire McCaskill just said on MSNBC that Georgia is a “total jump ball.” New York Times now says Georgia is “tilting Biden.” This comes a couple hours after it looked like Georgia was a loss for Biden. I don’t know what’s going on there. This could get interesting.
Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support our 2024 efforts by donating now or sign up for our free mailing list.


palmerreport--2020-11-04--Donald Trump throws a total fit after Fox News calls Arizona for Joe Biden

Even though MSNBC and CNN are still characterizing Arizona as too early to call , Fox News has now called Arizona for Joe Biden .
This is a big deal , because if Fox is right about this – and we think they are – then it means Biden is still on track to likely win .
It turns out Donald Trump isn ’ t happy about this .
Jim Acosta of CNN and Jonathan Swan of Axios are reporting that Donald Trump and his campaign are “ furious ” at Fox News for having called the state for Arizona @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Trump is directing its anger at Fox News over this , because while it ’ s been pretty clear for a couple hours now that Biden would very likely win Arizona , Trump was apparently hoping to go into tomorrow morning being able to brag that Biden hadn ’ t yet flipped a single state .
Joe Biden ’ s win in Arizona means that he now has multiple paths to victory , and he merely has to win the states where he has solid polling leads ( as opposed to narrow leads @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the current “ red mirage ” numbers you ’ re seeing on your TV screen from Wisconsin , Michigan , and Pennsylvania are gibberish because they ’ re heavily skewed toward same-day voting for now .
Those numbers will change dramatically later tonight or tomorrow .

Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support Palmer Report's 2024 efforts by donating now.
-----
-----
Even though MSNBC and CNN are still characterizing Arizona as too early to call, Fox News has now called Arizona for Joe Biden. This is a big deal, because if Fox is right about this – and we think they are – then it means Biden is still on track to likely win. It turns out Donald Trump isn’t happy about this.
Jim Acosta of CNN and Jonathan Swan of Axios are reporting that Donald Trump and his campaign are “furious” at Fox News for having called the state for Arizona. It’s notable that Team Trump is directing its anger at Fox News over this, because while it’s been pretty clear for a couple hours now that Biden would very likely win Arizona, Trump was apparently hoping to go into tomorrow morning being able to brag that Biden hadn’t yet flipped a single state.
Joe Biden’s win in Arizona means that he now has multiple paths to victory, and he merely has to win the states where he has solid polling leads (as opposed to narrow leads or toss ups). And again, the current “red mirage” numbers you’re seeing on your TV screen from Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania are gibberish because they’re heavily skewed toward same-day voting for now. Those numbers will change dramatically later tonight or tomorrow.
Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support our 2024 efforts by donating now or sign up for our free mailing list.


palmerreport--2020-11-04--Fox News calls Arizona for Joe Biden

Fox News calls Arizona for Joe Biden

For awhile there tonight , it was looking like Joe Biden ’ s path to victory would require him to win Pennsylvania , Michigan , and Wisconsin .
The good news is that he ’ s in strong position to win all three states ( current “ red mirage ” numbers notwithstanding ) .
The hard part is that it leaves him little room for error – and he can ’ t lose any of the 2016 blue states in the process .
Now Joe Biden just got some breathing room .
Fox News has called the state of Arizona @ @ @ @ @ @ @ still characterizing Arizona as too early to call .
But if Fox is correct – and we can ’ t imagine Fox would jump the gun in favor of a Democrat – then it gives Biden multiple paths to victory .
Meanwhile , we won ’ t start to get any meaningful numbers in Wisconsin , Michigan , or Pennsylvania until at least early tomorrow morning .
For now , the “ red mirage ” numbers on your TV screen from those three states are heavily skewed in favor of same-day in-person voting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ skewed toward Trump .
Just ignore them for now .

Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support Palmer Report's 2024 efforts by donating now.
-----
-----
For awhile there tonight, it was looking like Joe Biden’s path to victory would require him to win Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. The good news is that he’s in strong position to win all three states (current “red mirage” numbers notwithstanding). The hard part is that it leaves him little room for error – and he can’t lose any of the 2016 blue states in the process.
Now Joe Biden just got some breathing room. Fox News has called the state of Arizona for Biden. MSNBC and CNN are still characterizing Arizona as too early to call. But if Fox is correct – and we can’t imagine Fox would jump the gun in favor of a Democrat – then it gives Biden multiple paths to victory.
Meanwhile, we won’t start to get any meaningful numbers in Wisconsin, Michigan, or Pennsylvania until at least early tomorrow morning. For now, the “red mirage” numbers on your TV screen from those three states are heavily skewed in favor of same-day in-person voting, which means they’re artificially skewed toward Trump. Just ignore them for now.
Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support our 2024 efforts by donating now or sign up for our free mailing list.


palmerreport--2020-11-04--Red mirage: no, Donald Trump is NOT ahead in Wisconsin, Michigan or Pennsylvania

Here ’ s how the race is shaping up : Joe Biden has to win Michigan , Wisconsin , and Pennsylvania , and keep all the 2016 states .
If he picks up Arizona , which the numbers suggest is likely , that ’ ll give him a cushion .
Here ’ s the thing .
We were all repeatedly warned that the initial vote counts in Michigan , Wisconsin , and Pennsylvania would be gibberish , because they would consist mainly of same-day voting , and that the early votes and mail-in votes wouldn ’ t start being properly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ gave this phenomenon a name : the “ red mirage.
” Now we ’ re seeing it in action .
So if you ’ re looking at vote totals that show Trump way ahead in Michigan , Wisconsin , and Pennsylvania , those numbers are essentially imaginary .
This isn ’ t my opinion ; it ’ s a statement of fact .
If you really want to try to parse how those states are going , you can dig into the county level and district level numbers and try to extrapolate , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ quite a bit of complex math .
Here ’ s the thing : the polls always said that Florida , Georgia , North Carolina , Texas , North Carolina , and Arizona were going to be toss ups or lean Trump .
It ’ s not surprising that Biden has failed to pick most of them off .
But in Michigan , Wisconsin , and Pennsylvania , Biden has had large and consistent polling leads , meaning there ’ s absolutely no reason to look at them the same way you ’ d @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a Texas .
All the available evidence suggests that Biden is likely to win this election .
It ’ s just going to take some time for the mail-in votes to be counted , and we ’ re going to need patience .

Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support Palmer Report's 2024 efforts by donating now.
-----
-----
Here’s how the race is shaping up: Joe Biden has to win Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, and keep all the 2016 states. If he picks up Arizona, which the numbers suggest is likely, that’ll give him a cushion.
Here’s the thing. We were all repeatedly warned that the initial vote counts in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania would be gibberish, because they would consist mainly of same-day voting, and that the early votes and mail-in votes wouldn’t start being properly counted until later. The experts even gave this phenomenon a name: the “red mirage.” Now we’re seeing it in action.
So if you’re looking at vote totals that show Trump way ahead in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, those numbers are essentially imaginary. This isn’t my opinion; it’s a statement of fact. If you really want to try to parse how those states are going, you can dig into the county level and district level numbers and try to extrapolate, like Kornacki does, but that requires quite a bit of complex math.
Here’s the thing: the polls always said that Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Texas, North Carolina, and Arizona were going to be toss ups or lean Trump. It’s not surprising that Biden has failed to pick most of them off.
But in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, Biden has had large and consistent polling leads, meaning there’s absolutely no reason to look at them the same way you’d look at them like a Florida or a Texas.
All the available evidence suggests that Biden is likely to win this election. It’s just going to take some time for the mail-in votes to be counted, and we’re going to need patience.
Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support our 2024 efforts by donating now or sign up for our free mailing list.


palmerreport--2020-11-04--Joe Biden wins New Hampshire – and it’s a good sign for the results

Thus far the southern states haven ’ t been going Joe Biden ’ s way .
But those states were @ @ @ @ @ if Biden won them .
Biden ’ s core strategy has always come down to @ @ @ @ @ and Pennsylvania , and keeping all of the 2016 states .
As we ’ ve @ @ @ @ @ track to flip those “ big three ” states .
The question is whether Trump @ @ @ @ @ to flip any states .
Thus far there ’ s no indication that he will @ @ @ @ @ Hampshire , which is a state that Trump was at least daydreaming about winning , @ @ @ @ @ in 2016 .
Trump is still openly fantasizing about flipping Minnesota and Nevada , so @ @ @ @ @ keep an eye on those states .
The positive results thus far in Arizona are @ @ @ @ @ in Nevada .
In any case , at least New Hampshire is now off the @ @ @ @

Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support Palmer Report's 2024 efforts by donating now.
-----
-----
Thus far the southern states haven’t been going Joe Biden’s way. But those states were always going to be gravy if Biden won them. Biden’s core strategy has always come down to flipping Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, and keeping all of the 2016 states.
As we’ve explained, Biden is on track to flip those “big three” states. The question is whether Trump is going to be able to flip any states. Thus far there’s no indication that he will. Biden just won New Hampshire, which is a state that Trump was at least daydreaming about winning, and that he nearly won in 2016.
Trump is still openly fantasizing about flipping Minnesota and Nevada, so we’ll have to keep an eye on those states. The positive results thus far in Arizona are potentially good news for Biden in Nevada. In any case, at least New Hampshire is now off the table for Trump.
Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support our 2024 efforts by donating now or sign up for our free mailing list.


palmerreport--2020-11-04--This is what it comes down to

This is what it comes down to

Joe Biden isn ’ t going to win Florida .
Georgia , Ohio , Texas , and North Carolina are looking iffy at best .
But here ’ s the thing : Biden is still on track to win .
No , really .
It ’ s just math .
The polls in these five states were close all along , and somewhat erratic in nature .
But Biden ’ s polls have always been solid in Wisconsin , Michigan , and Pennsylvania .
Biden ’ s core strategy always centered on flipping them .
Nothing has changed in that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that Biden severely underperformed with Cuban voters , but suggest that Biden is outperforming with white suburban voters .
This is a good sign for Wisconsin , Michigan , and Pennsylvania , where Biden has had a solid polling lead all along .
Keep in mind that the partial results we ’ re seeing in Michigan , Wisconsin , and Pennsylvania right now are skewed by the uneven reporting when it comes to in-person vs mail-in votes .
It ’ s the “ red mirage ” that experts warned us about , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ should be ignored for now .
Joe Biden currently has a definite lead in Arizona , giving him breathing room when it comes to the midwest .
This hasn ’ t exactly been the kind of night that dreams are made of so far – but the evidence still says Biden is likely to win .
It ’ s just math .
And at the end of the day , if Biden wins and Trump loses , you ’ re not going to care whether it ’ s by 300 electoral votes or @ @ @ @

Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support Palmer Report's 2024 efforts by donating now.
-----
-----
Joe Biden isn’t going to win Florida. Georgia, Ohio, Texas, and North Carolina are looking iffy at best. But here’s the thing: Biden is still on track to win. No, really. It’s just math.
The polls in these five states were close all along, and somewhat erratic in nature. But Biden’s polls have always been solid in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Biden’s core strategy always centered on flipping them. Nothing has changed in that regard.
The results thus far show that Biden severely underperformed with Cuban voters, but suggest that Biden is outperforming with white suburban voters. This is a good sign for Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, where Biden has had a solid polling lead all along.
Keep in mind that the partial results we’re seeing in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania right now are skewed by the uneven reporting when it comes to in-person vs mail-in votes. It’s the “red mirage” that experts warned us about, and the partial numbers in those three states should be ignored for now.
Joe Biden currently has a definite lead in Arizona, giving him breathing room when it comes to the midwest. This hasn’t exactly been the kind of night that dreams are made of so far – but the evidence still says Biden is likely to win. It’s just math. And at the end of the day, if Biden wins and Trump loses, you’re not going to care whether it’s by 300 electoral votes or 400 electoral votes.
Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support our 2024 efforts by donating now or sign up for our free mailing list.


palmerreport--2020-11-04--This isn’t about Florida

This isn’t about Florida

Florida isn ’ t looking good for Joe Biden .
He made gains in numerous counties and demographics across the state , but he got terrible numbers in Miami-Dade County .
Here ’ s the thing , though : unlike a lot of recent presidential elections , 2020 was never about Florida .
How do we know this ?
Joe Biden wasn ’ t even in Florida during the final few days .
He ’ s clearly looking to win this race by winning elsewhere .
There ’ s some reason to believe that the numbers in the suburbs in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ gains for Biden in other swing States .
We ’ ll see if that holds up , but thus far the super early numbers in places like Texas and Ohio look like they could be good for Biden ( we ’ ll see ) .
Here ’ s how I ’ m looking at things tonight .
Joe Biden ’ s core path to victory has always consisted of flipping Pennsylvania , Michigan , and Wisconsin , and keeping all the states that Clinton won in 2016 .
If that happens , it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ he wins .
If Biden also flips any one out of Georgia , Florida , Ohio , Texas , North Carolina , or Arizona , that ’ ll be icing on the cake .
One thing I touched on earlier , which may be more relevant now : in the 2018 election , Democrats met or exceeded expectations just about everywhere , except Florida and Georgia .
There was no correlation in 2018 between what happened in those two states and what happened in the rest of the nation .
There is no @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in 2020 .
So let ’ s keep a level head , stay in the game , and see where this goes .
Biden is likely to win .

Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support Palmer Report's 2024 efforts by donating now.
-----
-----
Florida isn’t looking good for Joe Biden. He made gains in numerous counties and demographics across the state, but he got terrible numbers in Miami-Dade County. Here’s the thing, though: unlike a lot of recent presidential elections, 2020 was never about Florida.
How do we know this? Joe Biden wasn’t even in Florida during the final few days. He’s clearly looking to win this race by winning elsewhere.
There’s some reason to believe that the numbers in the suburbs in Florida could be a predictor of suburban gains for Biden in other swing States. We’ll see if that holds up, but thus far the super early numbers in places like Texas and Ohio look like they could be good for Biden (we’ll see).
Here’s how I’m looking at things tonight. Joe Biden’s core path to victory has always consisted of flipping Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, and keeping all the states that Clinton won in 2016. If that happens, it’s all he needs, and he wins. If Biden also flips any one out of Georgia, Florida, Ohio, Texas, North Carolina, or Arizona, that’ll be icing on the cake.
One thing I touched on earlier, which may be more relevant now: in the 2018 election, Democrats met or exceeded expectations just about everywhere, except Florida and Georgia. There was no correlation in 2018 between what happened in those two states and what happened in the rest of the nation. There is no reason to expect there to be one in 2020. So let’s keep a level head, stay in the game, and see where this goes. Biden is likely to win.
Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support our 2024 efforts by donating now or sign up for our free mailing list.