palmerreport--2020-02-02--And so it begins

And so it begins

Welcome to doomsday month .
We warned you it was coming .
The mainstream media , which exists to score ratings and turn a profit , sees that you ’ re all apprehensive and vulnerable in the wake of the Republican Senate ’ s sham acquittal of Donald Trump .
So the media is swooping in to exploit your worst fears by trying to convince you that Trump has now been magically “ emboldened ” and that he ’ ll now magically win in 2020 .
It ’ s already begun .
This afternoon the New York Times published a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ trying to convince us that because Trump has been acquitted , he ’ s going to… start committing crimes ?
It ’ s kind of hard to follow .
Wait a minute , because we seem to remember him having spent every day of the past three years committing the most severe crimes he could think of .
He kidnapped and murdered children .
He treasonously tried to blackmail a foreign government into rigging his own reelection .
His entire presidency has been a fully emboldened and fully unrestrained crime spree .
But @ @ @ @ @ @ @ New York Times – along with nearly every talking head on CNN and MSNBC – is here to convince you that his crime spree will now get worse .
They can ’ t tell you how this is supposed to happen , or what he ’ s supposedly going to do that ’ s even worse than the fully unrestrained crime spree he ’ s already been on .
But that ’ s okay , because the Times article used the word “ emboldened ” over and over again , and that should @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that Unspecified Bad Things are about to happen .
When you step back from it , you realize that this is a laugh-out-loud nonsensical narrative .
Donald Trump has been “ emboldened ” and “ unrestrained ” from the start .
His dimwitted antics have landed him a roughly 40 % approval rating , and terrible odds of reelection .
Now we ’ re supposed to believe that acquittal is somehow going to make his dimwitted antics more effective ?
The “ Trump emboldened ” narrative has been manufactured by the media to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ It also paralyzes you into staring at the doomsday predications all day , instead of getting out there and fighting Trump .
This nonsense is truly harmful – but only if you fall for it .
In this election we ’ re facing the same old half-witted Trump as ever , with the same low approval rating as ever .
He ’ s easily beatable .
The outcome in 2020 will be decided by whether we put in the work required to beat him , or whether we let the media manipulate us @ @ @ @ @ @ @ powers and we shouldn ’ t bother to finish him off .

Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support Palmer Report's 2024 efforts by donating now.
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Welcome to doomsday month. We warned you it was coming. The mainstream media, which exists to score ratings and turn a profit, sees that you’re all apprehensive and vulnerable in the wake of the Republican Senate’s sham acquittal of Donald Trump. So the media is swooping in to exploit your worst fears by trying to convince you that Trump has now been magically “emboldened” and that he’ll now magically win in 2020. It’s already begun.
This afternoon the New York Times published a steaming pile of horse crap aimed at trying to convince us that because Trump has been acquitted, he’s going to… start committing crimes? It’s kind of hard to follow. Wait a minute, because we seem to remember him having spent every day of the past three years committing the most severe crimes he could think of. He kidnapped and murdered children. He treasonously tried to blackmail a foreign government into rigging his own reelection. His entire presidency has been a fully emboldened and fully unrestrained crime spree.
But don’t worry, because the New York Times – along with nearly every talking head on CNN and MSNBC – is here to convince you that his crime spree will now get worse. They can’t tell you how this is supposed to happen, or what he’s supposedly going to do that’s even worse than the fully unrestrained crime spree he’s already been on. But that’s okay, because the Times article used the word “emboldened” over and over again, and that should be enough to scare you into believing that Unspecified Bad Things are about to happen.
When you step back from it, you realize that this is a laugh-out-loud nonsensical narrative. Donald Trump has been “emboldened” and “unrestrained” from the start. His dimwitted antics have landed him a roughly 40% approval rating, and terrible odds of reelection. Now we’re supposed to believe that acquittal is somehow going to make his dimwitted antics more effective?
The “Trump emboldened” narrative has been manufactured by the media to scare you into staying tuned in. It also paralyzes you into staring at the doomsday predications all day, instead of getting out there and fighting Trump. This nonsense is truly harmful – but only if you fall for it. In this election we’re facing the same old half-witted Trump as ever, with the same low approval rating as ever. He’s easily beatable. The outcome in 2020 will be decided by whether we put in the work required to beat him, or whether we let the media manipulate us into believing that Trump now has magic powers and we shouldn’t bother to finish him off.
Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support our 2024 efforts by donating now or sign up for our free mailing list.


palmerreport--2020-02-01--Shut up, Michael Moore

Shut up, Michael Moore

With the nation trying to figure out how to react to the Republican Senate ’ s predictable yet cringeworthy sham acquittal of Donald Trump , this weekend MSNBC decided that what we all needed was a divisive dose of Michael Moore .
Most of us would rather be kicked in the head , but for some reason Moore has been on MSNBC multiple times in the past couple days , trying to do as much harm as possible .
His appearance this morning should be the last straw .
Decades ago , Michael Moore was a tireless crusader for liberal @ @ @ @ @ @ @ era , when things were finally going well for America , Moore became less relevant .
So in 2015 he decided to reinvent himself as a guy who frequently , histrionically , and often dishonestly , attacks the Democratic Party .
This scored him some progressive street cred at a time when phony conspiracy theories about the DNC were trendy ( many of them manufactured by Trump , the GOP , and Russian puppet Wikileaks ) .
But his absurd exaggerations and lies about Hillary Clinton – at a time when she was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and he knew she was going to be the nominee – are one of the big reasons Donald Trump is in office .
Now that we ’ re heading into a weird stretch where Bernie Sanders might win the overly white states of Iowa and New Hampshire before ultimately getting blown out on Super Tuesday , MSNBC has decided that February is “ Bernie month.
” And why not ?
MSNBC scores easy ratings by pretending that Bernie is the frontrunner .
His fans stay tuned in because they love to hear it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ left , who think Bernie ’ s a divisive idiot , stay tuned in because they ’ re afraid he just might actually be the nominee – and they know he ’ d almost certainly lose to Trump .
So it wasn ’ t surprising that MSNBC allowed Michael Moore to give a histrionic , childlike performance on the air today , in which Moore promoted his latest phony narrative about how the Democratic National Committee is conspiring against Bernie Sanders .
The thing is , most liberals are sick of this crap @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s lies about Warren and Biden .
They ’ re sick of Bernie ’ s toxic surrogates acting like unhinged children .
And they ’ re particularly sick of opportunists like Moore pushing nonsensical anti-DNC conspiracy theories .
Moore ’ s name spent much of the day trending atop Twitter , as everyone piled on about how shameful his antics are .
Mainstream Americans increasingly want a Democratic nominee who ’ s competent , broadly popular , and isn ’ t trying to divide the left against itself .
Warren is a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is a moderate who fits this description .
Bernie is just a sore loser who ’ s running again for his own ego .
Americans are tired of this incessant nonsense about the DNC rigging anything against anyone .
They ’ re tired of Bernie Sanders fans insisting that he was somehow the rightful winner of the 2016 primary , when he lost by four million votes .
Whatever anyone thinks of Hillary Clinton , Bernie lost to her in a massive blowout .
Bernie would have lost the 2016 general election in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lose the 2020 general election in similar fashion .
At a time when everyone not sucked in by the Bernie cult is trying to figure out how to convince him to knock off the toxic divisiveness and dishonest attacks on his Democratic opponents , MSNBC is trying to divide us further by trotting out a lie machine like Michael Moore .
He can go push his anti-Democrat lies on his own platforms if he pleases .
But MSNBC has a responsibility not to give airtime to a guy like Moore , who at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ toxic and any Trump surrogate .

Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support Palmer Report's 2024 efforts by donating now.
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With the nation trying to figure out how to react to the Republican Senate’s predictable yet cringeworthy sham acquittal of Donald Trump, this weekend MSNBC decided that what we all needed was a divisive dose of Michael Moore. Most of us would rather be kicked in the head, but for some reason Moore has been on MSNBC multiple times in the past couple days, trying to do as much harm as possible. His appearance this morning should be the last straw.
Decades ago, Michael Moore was a tireless crusader for liberal causes. But then during the Obama era, when things were finally going well for America, Moore became less relevant. So in 2015 he decided to reinvent himself as a guy who frequently, histrionically, and often dishonestly, attacks the Democratic Party. This scored him some progressive street cred at a time when phony conspiracy theories about the DNC were trendy (many of them manufactured by Trump, the GOP, and Russian puppet Wikileaks). But his absurd exaggerations and lies about Hillary Clinton – at a time when she was ahead of Bernie by millions of votes and he knew she was going to be the nominee – are one of the big reasons Donald Trump is in office.
Now that we’re heading into a weird stretch where Bernie Sanders might win the overly white states of Iowa and New Hampshire before ultimately getting blown out on Super Tuesday, MSNBC has decided that February is “Bernie month.” And why not? MSNBC scores easy ratings by pretending that Bernie is the frontrunner. His fans stay tuned in because they love to hear it. The majority of people on the left, who think Bernie’s a divisive idiot, stay tuned in because they’re afraid he just might actually be the nominee – and they know he’d almost certainly lose to Trump.
So it wasn’t surprising that MSNBC allowed Michael Moore to give a histrionic, childlike performance on the air today, in which Moore promoted his latest phony narrative about how the Democratic National Committee is conspiring against Bernie Sanders. The thing is, most liberals are sick of this crap. They’re sick of Bernie’s lies about Warren and Biden. They’re sick of Bernie’s toxic surrogates acting like unhinged children. And they’re particularly sick of opportunists like Moore pushing nonsensical anti-DNC conspiracy theories. Moore’s name spent much of the day trending atop Twitter, as everyone piled on about how shameful his antics are.
Mainstream Americans increasingly want a Democratic nominee who’s competent, broadly popular, and isn’t trying to divide the left against itself. Warren is a leftist who fits this description. Biden is a moderate who fits this description. Bernie is just a sore loser who’s running again for his own ego. Americans are tired of this incessant nonsense about the DNC rigging anything against anyone. They’re tired of Bernie Sanders fans insisting that he was somehow the rightful winner of the 2016 primary, when he lost by four million votes. Whatever anyone thinks of Hillary Clinton, Bernie lost to her in a massive blowout. Bernie would have lost the 2016 general election in humiliating fashion, and he’d lose the 2020 general election in similar fashion.
At a time when everyone not sucked in by the Bernie cult is trying to figure out how to convince him to knock off the toxic divisiveness and dishonest attacks on his Democratic opponents, MSNBC is trying to divide us further by trotting out a lie machine like Michael Moore. He can go push his anti-Democrat lies on his own platforms if he pleases. But MSNBC has a responsibility not to give airtime to a guy like Moore, who at this point is essentially as dishonest and toxic and any Trump surrogate.
Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support our 2024 efforts by donating now or sign up for our free mailing list.


Saw this coming

When the Republican Senate predictably decided that it ’ s going to acquit Donald Trump in his sham impeachment trial , most pundits predicted that this would “ embolden ” Trump to become “ unrestrained ” and that as result he ’ s going to magically win the 2020 election .
Palmer Report pointed out that there ’ s no factual , logical , or evidentiary basis for any of this , and that instead we ’ re likely to see the same old Trump .
Our reasoning was straightforward .
Trump has already spent his entire presidency carrying out @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fashion .
How is that going to change now ?
The guy was already trying to criminally conspire with Ukraine to rig his reelection before he got impeached .
In fact it ’ s why he got impeached .
It was typical of the dimwitted reelection schemes he ’ s been trying for the past three years , all of which have left him with a roughly 40 % approval rating and terrible 2020 prospects .
We sarcastically asked if acquittal was going to somehow make Trump a smarter criminal .
Now , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in Ukraine as we speak , trying to push Ukrainian President Zelensky into saying that Trump didn ’ t try to extort him over foreign aid .
As if this is somehow going to help Trump at all .
He ’ s still carrying out the same one-dimensional schemes as ever .
It ’ s concerning , in the same way that it ’ s always been concerning : this guy is an idiot with idiotic schemes , and the big fear is that sooner or later one of his idiotic schemes might @ @ @ @ @ @ @ suddenly been granted new superpowers , or a new level of sophisticated thinking , just because he ’ s been acquitted .
Palmer Report also pointed out that acquittal or no acquittal , Donald Trump is going to continue being the same old narcissistic doofus who tweets things that don ’ t help his cause .
Sure enough , today Trump referred to himself as “ America ’ s Greatest President.
” How is this going to get him the additional votes he needs in 2020 ?
It ’ s not .
Trump @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was before the Republican Senate decided it ’ s going to acquit him .
Nothing ’ s changed .
If we were beating him before , we ’ re still beating him by now .
The only way he ’ ll win is if the Resistance gets discouraged and stops fighting .

Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support Palmer Report's 2024 efforts by donating now.
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When the Republican Senate predictably decided that it’s going to acquit Donald Trump in his sham impeachment trial, most pundits predicted that this would “embolden” Trump to become “unrestrained” and that as result he’s going to magically win the 2020 election. Palmer Report pointed out that there’s no factual, logical, or evidentiary basis for any of this, and that instead we’re likely to see the same old Trump.
Our reasoning was straightforward. Trump has already spent his entire presidency carrying out his corrupt schemes in emboldened and unrestrained fashion. How is that going to change now? The guy was already trying to criminally conspire with Ukraine to rig his reelection before he got impeached. In fact it’s why he got impeached. It was typical of the dimwitted reelection schemes he’s been trying for the past three years, all of which have left him with a roughly 40% approval rating and terrible 2020 prospects. We sarcastically asked if acquittal was going to somehow make Trump a smarter criminal.
Now, sure enough, Trump has Mike Pompeo in Ukraine as we speak, trying to push Ukrainian President Zelensky into saying that Trump didn’t try to extort him over foreign aid. As if this is somehow going to help Trump at all. He’s still carrying out the same one-dimensional schemes as ever. It’s concerning, in the same way that it’s always been concerning: this guy is an idiot with idiotic schemes, and the big fear is that sooner or later one of his idiotic schemes might accidentally work. Trump hasn’t suddenly been granted new superpowers, or a new level of sophisticated thinking, just because he’s been acquitted.
Palmer Report also pointed out that acquittal or no acquittal, Donald Trump is going to continue being the same old narcissistic doofus who tweets things that don’t help his cause. Sure enough, today Trump referred to himself as “America’s Greatest President.” How is this going to get him the additional votes he needs in 2020? It’s not. Trump is the same villain today that he was before the Republican Senate decided it’s going to acquit him. Nothing’s changed. If we were beating him before, we’re still beating him by now. The only way he’ll win is if the Resistance gets discouraged and stops fighting.
Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support our 2024 efforts by donating now or sign up for our free mailing list.


Worldwide chaos

The New York Times reports that European economic growth has slowed to nearly zero .
Much of this has to do with the earl gray-soaked , xenophobia-fueled calamity that was Brexit .
That ’ s right , was .
Britain crashed out of the European Union today , February 1st , 2020 .
The reverberations of the likely incoming economic fallout will be felt globally .
Make no mistake , economic recessions are a bad thing , but if there ’ s a silver-lining to what will surely be hard times for a great many people , it ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s stranglehold on those voters who vote strictly with their financial portfolio in mind .
Trump ’ s economic policies , if you can even call them that , have largely involved deregulation and cutting taxes on the wealthiest Americans and corporations .
This has emboldened companies to hoard more money at the cost of limiting benefits to workers and hiring new workers , further contributing to the limits on the growth of purchasing power of American workers .
The worker is having a hard time .
My point in highlighting this is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ might have been fine during a bull economy when people are less likely to notice what they aren ’ t getting , but once a recession hits and companies have to lay off workers , that money the companies hoarded will benefit only one side of the equation , and I can tell you it won ’ t be the workers .
Want proof ?
Just yesterday Reuters reported the following : [ W ] ith unemployment at the lowest in half a century , that first presidential portfolio has stumbled to fulfill @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 10 companies have spent billions on new factories and upgrades , they failed to keep pace with new hires , according to a Reuters analysis of the group ’ s capital expenditures and headcount since 2017 .
“ Collective employment at Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV , Ford Motor Co , GM , Harley , Intel , Lockheed Martin Corp , Sprint Corp , Walmart Inc and small biotech Amicus Therapeutics has remained flat at about 2 million workers , the analysis shows .
In the same period , total U.S. employment has risen @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the kindling and tinder for the ember of recession , and Brexit might just be the catalyst .
With a nation that harbors one of the most important financial centers in the world now in uncharted political territory , markets will be rattled as investors try to figure out where to reinvest their money where it can be more secure .
Again , some proof as the Guardian and others report that New York is surging ahead of London as the world ’ s top financial center .
Turbulence is likely , unfortunate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s just hope voters in 2020 realize that Trump ’ s myopic and self-serving economic vision is not what we need to overcome economic hardship .

Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support Palmer Report's 2024 efforts by donating now.
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The New York Times reports that European economic growth has slowed to nearly zero. Much of this has to do with the earl gray-soaked, xenophobia-fueled calamity that was Brexit. That’s right, was. Britain crashed out of the European Union today, February 1st, 2020. The reverberations of the likely incoming economic fallout will be felt globally.
Make no mistake, economic recessions are a bad thing, but if there’s a silver-lining to what will surely be hard times for a great many people, it’s that economic hardship will weaken Trump’s stranglehold on those voters who vote strictly with their financial portfolio in mind. Trump’s economic policies, if you can even call them that, have largely involved deregulation and cutting taxes on the wealthiest Americans and corporations. This has emboldened companies to hoard more money at the cost of limiting benefits to workers and hiring new workers, further contributing to the limits on the growth of purchasing power of American workers. The worker is having a hard time.
My point in highlighting this is simple: Trump’s stupid policies might have been fine during a bull economy when people are less likely to notice what they aren’t getting, but once a recession hits and companies have to lay off workers, that money the companies hoarded will benefit only one side of the equation, and I can tell you it won’t be the workers. Want proof? Just yesterday Reuters reported the following:
[W]ith unemployment at the lowest in half a century, that first presidential portfolio has stumbled to fulfill that forecast. While Trump’s 10 companies have spent billions on new factories and upgrades, they failed to keep pace with new hires, according to a Reuters analysis of the group’s capital expenditures and headcount since 2017. “Collective employment at Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV, Ford Motor Co, GM, Harley, Intel, Lockheed Martin Corp, Sprint Corp, Walmart Inc and small biotech Amicus Therapeutics has remained flat at about 2 million workers, the analysis shows. In the same period, total U.S. employment has risen by 4.5%.
Trump has laid the kindling and tinder for the ember of recession, and Brexit might just be the catalyst. With a nation that harbors one of the most important financial centers in the world now in uncharted political territory, markets will be rattled as investors try to figure out where to reinvest their money where it can be more secure. Again, some proof as the Guardian and others report that New York is surging ahead of London as the world’s top financial center.
Turbulence is likely, unfortunate as that may be. Let’s just hope voters in 2020 realize that Trump’s myopic and self-serving economic vision is not what we need to overcome economic hardship.
Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support our 2024 efforts by donating now or sign up for our free mailing list.


palmerreport--2020-02-01--John Bolton will testify to the House

John Bolton will testify to the House

Back when the Republican Senate was still deliberating witnesses , Palmer Report pointed out that there were only three possible outcomes .
1 ) John Bolton would testify to the Senate during the impeachment trial .
2 ) Bolton would testify to the House after the trial .
3 ) Bolton would pick a respected TV talk show and “ testify ” that way .
What did we base this on ?
John Bolton has a new book to promote , and no book author ever turns down a chance to appear on television to promote their new book .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ handled himself up to this point , and whatever you think of him in general , he ’ s going to end up talking about Donald Trump ’ s Ukraine scandal on television .
On Friday evening , MSNBC host Lawrence O ’ Donnell took things a step further .
He flatly stated that John Bolton will end up testifying under oath to the House .
He ’ s right of course .
It ’ s impossible to imagine a scenario in which Nancy Pelosi and the House don ’ t call Bolton @ @ @ @ @ @ @ And again , whatever you think of Bolton ’ s other motivations , he ’ s not going to turn down the opportunity to promote his book by testifying .
Republican Senators know darn well that one way or the other , John Bolton will end up spilling his guts about Donald Trump ’ s Ukraine extortion scandal in front of the television cameras .
The GOP Senators made the calculation that they ’ ll be better off if Bolton doesn ’ t do it to their faces .
So be it .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ Now we get to help make sure it all goes horribly wrong for them heading into 2020 .

Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support Palmer Report's 2024 efforts by donating now.
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Back when the Republican Senate was still deliberating witnesses, Palmer Report pointed out that there were only three possible outcomes. 1) John Bolton would testify to the Senate during the impeachment trial. 2) Bolton would testify to the House after the trial. 3) Bolton would pick a respected TV talk show and “testify” that way.
What did we base this on? John Bolton has a new book to promote, and no book author ever turns down a chance to appear on television to promote their new book. Whatever you think of how Bolton has handled himself up to this point, and whatever you think of him in general, he’s going to end up talking about Donald Trump’s Ukraine scandal on television.
On Friday evening, MSNBC host Lawrence O’Donnell took things a step further. He flatly stated that John Bolton will end up testifying under oath to the House. He’s right of course. It’s impossible to imagine a scenario in which Nancy Pelosi and the House don’t call Bolton to testify in televised public hearings. And again, whatever you think of Bolton’s other motivations, he’s not going to turn down the opportunity to promote his book by testifying.
Republican Senators know darn well that one way or the other, John Bolton will end up spilling his guts about Donald Trump’s Ukraine extortion scandal in front of the television cameras. The GOP Senators made the calculation that they’ll be better off if Bolton doesn’t do it to their faces. So be it. They’ve placed their bets. Now we get to help make sure it all goes horribly wrong for them heading into 2020.
Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support our 2024 efforts by donating now or sign up for our free mailing list.


BLOWBACK

Damned if you do , damned if you don ’ t .
Also , damned if John Bolton doesn ’ t release more evidence against Trump .
What a day .
All but two Republicans voted against having witnesses in Trump ’ s impeachment trial .
Senators Mitt Romney and Susan Collins joined the Democrats ’ vote , but it seemed to be for theater and nothing else .
In other words , the 51-49 vote being as close as it was is virtually meaningless .
What ’ s meaningful is what future the Republicans have paved for themselves , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
But first , a quick analysis .
Had Republicans voted for more witnesses , former National Security Advisor John Bolton would have surely been called upon to testify .
His testimony would have been damaging to Trump , if the trickle of information from his forthcoming book is to be believed .
Republicans thus had a choice : let Bolton have some airtime to throw punches at Trump , or vote against all witnesses and make the whole trial look like a ruse .
Evidently , their cost-benefit analysis led them to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ t come without consequences .
A whopping twenty-three Republican Senators will be defending their seats this election cycle , compared to the twelve Democrats need to defend .
As of now , there are four tossup seats : in Arizona , Colorado , Maine , and North Carolina .
Democrats would need to win each of these and the ten remaining seats that are up for grabs and lean blue .
If you asked me last week if the Dems stood a chance at getting to the majority , I ’ d @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s Senate vote , I ’ m not so sure .
By voting against witnesses , the Republicans in the Senate have effectively said two things to independent and swing voters ( swing voters being Obama to Trump voters ) : ( 1 ) We don ’ t care about the truth , and ( 2 ) We don ’ t care about what our constituents want .
Most Americans wanted witnesses to be called .
As The Washington Post points out , Americans may not want the same witnesses called—i.e.
, @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to speak against the Bidens or similar .
That is indeed true , but probably only to an extent .
Many voters are registered as independent — 28 % to be exact – and these voters are the ones who Republican Senators need to play for .
With so many Americans wanting more witnesses , inevitably a good amount are these precious independent voters .
The Senators in the tossup states will be effectively chosen by a very small number of independent and swing voters .
It ’ s the same problem in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ which is to say that this entire election will come down to a very small handful of swing states .
Today , Republican Senators made a powerful move to alienate independent voters .
It will haunt them in 2020 , and acquitting Trump with a skimpy trial will only make it worse .
None of this is to even mention how many special elections skewed to Democrats when they weren ’ t supposed to .
Prepare for a second blue wave in 2020 .
The tides are turning .

Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support Palmer Report's 2024 efforts by donating now.
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Damned if you do, damned if you don’t. Also, damned if John Bolton doesn’t release more evidence against Trump. What a day. All but two Republicans voted against having witnesses in Trump’s impeachment trial. Senators Mitt Romney and Susan Collins joined the Democrats’ vote, but it seemed to be for theater and nothing else. In other words, the 51-49 vote being as close as it was is virtually meaningless. What’s meaningful is what future the Republicans have paved for themselves, and it doesn’t look good.
But first, a quick analysis. Had Republicans voted for more witnesses, former National Security Advisor John Bolton would have surely been called upon to testify. His testimony would have been damaging to Trump, if the trickle of information from his forthcoming book is to be believed. Republicans thus had a choice: let Bolton have some airtime to throw punches at Trump, or vote against all witnesses and make the whole trial look like a ruse. Evidently, their cost-benefit analysis led them to the latter, and that choice doesn’t come without consequences.
A whopping twenty-three Republican Senators will be defending their seats this election cycle, compared to the twelve Democrats need to defend. As of now, there are four tossup seats: in Arizona, Colorado, Maine, and North Carolina. Democrats would need to win each of these and the ten remaining seats that are up for grabs and lean blue. If you asked me last week if the Dems stood a chance at getting to the majority, I’d have said no, but after today’s Senate vote, I’m not so sure.
By voting against witnesses, the Republicans in the Senate have effectively said two things to independent and swing voters (swing voters being Obama to Trump voters): (1) We don’t care about the truth, and (2) We don’t care about what our constituents want. Most Americans wanted witnesses to be called. As The Washington Post points out, Americans may not want the same witnesses called—i.e., Democrats want Bolton, Republicans want someone to speak against the Bidens or similar. That is indeed true, but probably only to an extent.
Many voters are registered as independent — 28% to be exact – and these voters are the ones who Republican Senators need to play for. With so many Americans wanting more witnesses, inevitably a good amount are these precious independent voters. The Senators in the tossup states will be effectively chosen by a very small number of independent and swing voters. It’s the same problem in the Electoral College system writ large, which is to say that this entire election will come down to a very small handful of swing states.
Today, Republican Senators made a powerful move to alienate independent voters. It will haunt them in 2020, and acquitting Trump with a skimpy trial will only make it worse. None of this is to even mention how many special elections skewed to Democrats when they weren’t supposed to. Prepare for a second blue wave in 2020. The tides are turning.
Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support our 2024 efforts by donating now or sign up for our free mailing list.


palmerreport--2020-02-01--Lev Parnas just threw the book at Donald Trump

The Republican Senate decided last night that it wasn ’ t willing to call any witnesses in Donald Trump ’ s impeachment trial , and made it official with a vote this evening .
The GOP has made its choice to marry itself to Trump ’ s crimes heading into 2020 , and so be it .
The danger for the GOP is that Trump ’ s scandals are going to get much worse before the election .
Ukraine scandal figure Lev Parnas , who offered to testify during the Senate impeachment trial but was rebuffed , appeared on MSBC @ @ @ @ @ @ @ expanded on yesterday ’ s revelation that nearly everyone in the upper ranks of the Trump regime was in on Donald Trump ’ s extortion scheme .
Parnas also added that he thinks Bill Barr initially thought John Bolton was willing to go along with the scheme , before finding out the hard way that Bolton wanted nothing to do with it .
Lev Parnas stressed that he can ’ t wait for John Bolton ’ s book to become public , because Bolton saw a lot of the things that Lev saw @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s book to be devastating to Donald Trump .
If Bolton and Parnas end up corroborating each other ’ s claims about Trump , that ’ ll count for a lot , as the two men were not allies , and were not even interacting with each other during the scandal .
They each simply happened to see the same thing .
Despite all his current foot stomping , Donald Trump can ’ t magically block John Bolton ’ s book from being released .
Instead , thanks partly to Trump ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s already become a # 1 bestseller on Amazon while still in the preorder stage .

Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support Palmer Report's 2024 efforts by donating now.
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The Republican Senate decided last night that it wasn’t willing to call any witnesses in Donald Trump’s impeachment trial, and made it official with a vote this evening. The GOP has made its choice to marry itself to Trump’s crimes heading into 2020, and so be it. The danger for the GOP is that Trump’s scandals are going to get much worse before the election.
Ukraine scandal figure Lev Parnas, who offered to testify during the Senate impeachment trial but was rebuffed, appeared on MSBC tonight with host Ari Melber. Parnas expanded on yesterday’s revelation that nearly everyone in the upper ranks of the Trump regime was in on Donald Trump’s extortion scheme. Parnas also added that he thinks Bill Barr initially thought John Bolton was willing to go along with the scheme, before finding out the hard way that Bolton wanted nothing to do with it.
Lev Parnas stressed that he can’t wait for John Bolton’s book to become public, because Bolton saw a lot of the things that Lev saw, and Lev fully expects Bolton’s book to be devastating to Donald Trump. If Bolton and Parnas end up corroborating each other’s claims about Trump, that’ll count for a lot, as the two men were not allies, and were not even interacting with each other during the scandal. They each simply happened to see the same thing.
Despite all his current foot stomping, Donald Trump can’t magically block John Bolton’s book from being released. Instead, thanks partly to Trump’s whining about the book, it’s already become a #1 bestseller on Amazon while still in the preorder stage.
Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support our 2024 efforts by donating now or sign up for our free mailing list.


palmerreport--2020-02-01--Republican draws the line and ditches his party after GOP Senate’s shameful sham impeachment trial

The Republican Senate ’ s handling of Donald Trump ’ s impeachment trial , shameful and corrupt as it ’ s been , has nonetheless turned out to be a de facto win for the Resistance .
Why ?
Trump needed to use the trial to boost his non-competitive approval rating ahead of 2020 , and he failed to do that .
When the team that ’ s behind blows a big scoring opportunity in the fourth quarter , that ’ s an ugly blow for them .
Some of the fatalists within the Resistance have accused me of “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I ’ ve spent the day spelling out why this sham trial has significantly harmed Donald Trump ’ s already-small odds of winning in 2020 .
Call me whatever you want , but I ’ m right , and that ’ ll bear itself out .
In the meantime , if you want some empirical but very human evidence of how this sham trial is going to impact things , take a look at this tweet this evening from a guy named Bill Tzamaras : I just changed , online , my party @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as a Republican since March 1980 .
LONG OVERDUE .
F— the GOP !
Any party that can support the most morally and criminally corrupt president ever is not one I will ever support again .
LONG OVERDUE .
Look around on social media , and you ’ ll find plenty more of this .
Donald Trump didn ’ t gain a single 2020 vote as a result of his sham impeachment trial , yet there ’ s ample evidence of people bailing on Trump ’ s Republican Party as a result of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ This is all about the 2020 election , and Trump is not on a path to winning , that ’ s for sure .

Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support Palmer Report's 2024 efforts by donating now.
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The Republican Senate’s handling of Donald Trump’s impeachment trial, shameful and corrupt as it’s been, has nonetheless turned out to be a de facto win for the Resistance. Why? Trump needed to use the trial to boost his non-competitive approval rating ahead of 2020, and he failed to do that. When the team that’s behind blows a big scoring opportunity in the fourth quarter, that’s an ugly blow for them.
Some of the fatalists within the Resistance have accused me of “optimism” or worse, simply because I’ve spent the day spelling out why this sham trial has significantly harmed Donald Trump’s already-small odds of winning in 2020. Call me whatever you want, but I’m right, and that’ll bear itself out. In the meantime, if you want some empirical but very human evidence of how this sham trial is going to impact things, take a look at this tweet this evening from a guy named Bill Tzamaras:
I just changed, online, my party affiliation to Democrat, having been registered as a Republican since March 1980. LONG OVERDUE. F— the GOP! Any party that can support the most morally and criminally corrupt president ever is not one I will ever support again. LONG OVERDUE.
Look around on social media, and you’ll find plenty more of this. Donald Trump didn’t gain a single 2020 vote as a result of his sham impeachment trial, yet there’s ample evidence of people bailing on Trump’s Republican Party as a result of how the Republicans handled the trial. This is all about the 2020 election, and Trump is not on a path to winning, that’s for sure.
Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support our 2024 efforts by donating now or sign up for our free mailing list.


SAME OLD NONSENSE

To hear some of the pundits tell it , now that Donald Trump is ( predictably ) being acquitted by his own party in the Senate , everything is suddenly about to come up roses for him .
He ’ s going to be “ emboldened ” – whatever that ’ s supposed to mean .
His base is going to be “ fired up ” – as if they weren ’ t going to vote for him already .
He ’ s going to magically get reelected now , despite zero evidence to support this .
These kinds of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ nonsense aimed at playing on your worst fears , and manipulating you into believing that Trump is going to magically become emperor unless you sit paralyzed in front of your TV all day and listen to even more hysterical doomsday prognostications .
None of it ’ s based in reality .
You want to talk about what ’ s really going to happen between now and November ?
Donald Trump won ’ t suddenly be “ emboldened ” to do anything new .
He ’ s spent the past three years carrying out @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
His schemes have all been so ineffective , it ’ s left him with a roughly 40 % approval rating , and very difficult odds of winning in 2020 .
Now that he ’ s being acquitted , he ’ s simply going to keep carrying out the same dimwitted antics , with the same kinds of results .
Unless Trump ’ s acquittal is somehow going to turn him into a smarter criminal , nothing will change on this front .
As far as this acquittal somehow magically causing Donald Trump @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s one of those completely nonsensical narratives that isn ’ t supported by one shred of logic or evidence , and only “ sounds reasonable ” because you ’ ve heard the TV pundits repeat over and over and over again .
But back in the real world , Trump entered this trial with a roughly 40 % approval rating , which gave him no chance in 2020 .
He ’ s exiting the trial with the same approval rating , and thus the same total lack of competitiveness in 2020 .
This @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at time when he ’ s running out of time , and he got nothing out of it .
What we ’ ll see between now and November 2020 will be the same old , same old .
Donald Trump will try some more dimwitted corrupt schemes that ’ ll work about as well for him as his Ukraine scheme did .
Trump ’ s election numbers will remain about the same as they are now .
The results will come down entirely to whether the Resistance spends this year whining and crying @ @ @ @ @ @ @ win , or whether the Resistance simply puts in the work required to win .
It ’ s as simple as that .
Everything else is just noise .

Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support Palmer Report's 2024 efforts by donating now.
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To hear some of the pundits tell it, now that Donald Trump is (predictably) being acquitted by his own party in the Senate, everything is suddenly about to come up roses for him. He’s going to be “emboldened” – whatever that’s supposed to mean. His base is going to be “fired up” – as if they weren’t going to vote for him already. He’s going to magically get reelected now, despite zero evidence to support this.
These kinds of narratives are nothing more than histrionic doomsday nonsense aimed at playing on your worst fears, and manipulating you into believing that Trump is going to magically become emperor unless you sit paralyzed in front of your TV all day and listen to even more hysterical doomsday prognostications. None of it’s based in reality. You want to talk about what’s really going to happen between now and November?
Donald Trump won’t suddenly be “emboldened” to do anything new. He’s spent the past three years carrying out one corrupt scheme in office after another. His schemes have all been so ineffective, it’s left him with a roughly 40% approval rating, and very difficult odds of winning in 2020. Now that he’s being acquitted, he’s simply going to keep carrying out the same dimwitted antics, with the same kinds of results. Unless Trump’s acquittal is somehow going to turn him into a smarter criminal, nothing will change on this front.
As far as this acquittal somehow magically causing Donald Trump to win in 2020, that’s one of those completely nonsensical narratives that isn’t supported by one shred of logic or evidence, and only “sounds reasonable” because you’ve heard the TV pundits repeat over and over and over again. But back in the real world, Trump entered this trial with a roughly 40% approval rating, which gave him no chance in 2020. He’s exiting the trial with the same approval rating, and thus the same total lack of competitiveness in 2020. This was a major opportunity for him, at time when he’s running out of time, and he got nothing out of it.
What we’ll see between now and November 2020 will be the same old, same old. Donald Trump will try some more dimwitted corrupt schemes that’ll work about as well for him as his Ukraine scheme did. Trump’s election numbers will remain about the same as they are now. The results will come down entirely to whether the Resistance spends this year whining and crying about how Trump is going to magically win, or whether the Resistance simply puts in the work required to win. It’s as simple as that. Everything else is just noise.
Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support our 2024 efforts by donating now or sign up for our free mailing list.


palmerreport--2020-02-01--Marco Rubio just gave something away

Marco Rubio just gave something away

Marco Rubio , a simpleton who ’ s so in over his head he makes other Republican Senators look smart and capable by comparison , found a way to set himself on fire yet again today .
He released a lengthy and bizarre statement about Donald Trump ’ s impeachment trial in which he explained why he was voting against having witnesses testify .
In the process he gave something away .
We ’ ll save you from having to read the entire thing , which is equal parts simplistic and incoherent .
Instead , you really only need to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ where Marco Rubio gave away what the entire Republican Senate is thinking right now : This is , of course , one of the dumbest things that has ever been said .
But it ’ s not simply about how stupid Marco Rubio is .
He ’ s actually giving away the strategy that Republican Senators are using .
They have to acquit Trump , because they ’ re the bad guys , and that ’ s what bad guys do .
But they also know that once they acquit him , more @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to come out .
John Bolton will soon be on the TV talk show circuit to promote his book .
Lev Parnas and others keep dumping more evidence out there .
In the coming weeks and months , Donald Trump is going to be even more thoroughly and loudly exposed as being guilty .
The Republican Senators know they ’ re going to look even worse for having acquitted him .
So they ’ re already laying the groundwork for arguing down the road that “ Hey look , we said Trump ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” That ’ s a pathetic argument , but it ’ s all they ’ ve got .
The fact that they ’ re already putting it out there gives away that they expect to need it .
They know this is about to get a whole lot uglier for Trump , and they ’ re bracing themselves for it .

Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support Palmer Report's 2024 efforts by donating now.
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Marco Rubio, a simpleton who’s so in over his head he makes other Republican Senators look smart and capable by comparison, found a way to set himself on fire yet again today. He released a lengthy and bizarre statement about Donald Trump’s impeachment trial in which he explained why he was voting against having witnesses testify. In the process he gave something away.
We’ll save you from having to read the entire thing, which is equal parts simplistic and incoherent. Instead, you really only need to focus on one sentence in particular, where Marco Rubio gave away what the entire Republican Senate is thinking right now:
Just because actions meet a standard of impeachment does not mean it is in the best interest of the country to remove a President from office.
This is, of course, one of the dumbest things that has ever been said. But it’s not simply about how stupid Marco Rubio is. He’s actually giving away the strategy that Republican Senators are using. They have to acquit Trump, because they’re the bad guys, and that’s what bad guys do. But they also know that once they acquit him, more evidence against Trump is going to continue to come out. John Bolton will soon be on the TV talk show circuit to promote his book. Lev Parnas and others keep dumping more evidence out there.
In the coming weeks and months, Donald Trump is going to be even more thoroughly and loudly exposed as being guilty. The Republican Senators know they’re going to look even worse for having acquitted him. So they’re already laying the groundwork for arguing down the road that “Hey look, we said Trump’s actions were impeachable at the time.” That’s a pathetic argument, but it’s all they’ve got. The fact that they’re already putting it out there gives away that they expect to need it. They know this is about to get a whole lot uglier for Trump, and they’re bracing themselves for it.
Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support our 2024 efforts by donating now or sign up for our free mailing list.


palmerreport--2020-01-31--What were they thinking?

What were they thinking?

As we speak , Senate Republicans are voting to not even so much as call a single witness in Donald Trump ’ s impeachment trial .
The fatalists of the Resistance are labeling this the death of democracy , and making histrionic doomsday prognostications about how this means Trump is magically going to get away with it .
But back in the real world , none of that exists , of course .
What we ’ re really seeing is Senate Republicans making a tricky no-win calculation about how to have this blow back on them the least in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Senate was never , ever going to convict and remove Donald Trump unless he became so toxically unpopular , the Republican Senators selfishly concluded that their own personal odds of reelection would be improved by ousting Trump .
Instead , the Republicans made the calculation that their own careers are better off by acquitting Trump .
If anyone in the Resistance thought this was ever going to come down to Republicans “ growing a spine ” or “ not growing a spine , ” that ’ s just not how any of this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was always about math .
That ’ s just as true with trial witnesses .
Senate Republicans know that one way or the other , John Bolton will soon be speaking very loudly on television about Donald Trump ’ s scandals and crimes .
He has a book to promote , and no book author ever turns down the free promotion that comes from doing TV interviews .
And no , Trump can ’ t magically stop Bolton ’ s book from coming out , no matter how loudly he and his lawyers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Resistance are absolutely certain that Trump has a magic wand and he just waves it whenever he wants , but in the real world , nothing ever plays out this way .
So the only question here is why Senate Republicans decided that they were better off by forcing John Bolton to go on a TV talk show next week to give his “ testimony ” instead of simply letting him give his testimony to the Senate .
Since they were going to acquit Trump either way , they probably figured they @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for Bolton ’ s upcoming bombshells if Bolton isn ’ t saying it to their faces .
That ’ s right , get ready for Republican Senators to soon begin arguing that they ’ re shocked at the full extent of the revelations in John Bolton ’ s book , and that they can ’ t be held accountable for their decision to acquit Trump , because they didn ’ t know just how ugly Bolton ’ s revelations were .
This won ’ t make any sense , but it won ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ just be the best cover story they can come up with , as they cross their fingers and hope that this sham trial ’ s negative impact on their careers isn ’ t a fatal one .
These people are Republicans .
They never do the right thing just for its own sake .
They never do the wrong thing just for its own sake , either .
Concepts like “ right ” and “ wrong ” don ’ t exist to them , or else they wouldn ’ t be Republicans .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ gives them the best odds of keeping their own seat .
In this instance they gambled that they ’ re better off by letting Bolton open the can of worms himself , than by helping him open it .
Your job in 2020 is to make sure they gambled wrong .

Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support Palmer Report's 2024 efforts by donating now.
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As we speak, Senate Republicans are voting to not even so much as call a single witness in Donald Trump’s impeachment trial. The fatalists of the Resistance are labeling this the death of democracy, and making histrionic doomsday prognostications about how this means Trump is magically going to get away with it. But back in the real world, none of that exists, of course. What we’re really seeing is Senate Republicans making a tricky no-win calculation about how to have this blow back on them the least in the coming days and months.
The Republican Senate was never, ever going to convict and remove Donald Trump unless he became so toxically unpopular, the Republican Senators selfishly concluded that their own personal odds of reelection would be improved by ousting Trump. Instead, the Republicans made the calculation that their own careers are better off by acquitting Trump. If anyone in the Resistance thought this was ever going to come down to Republicans “growing a spine” or “not growing a spine,” that’s just not how any of this works. For the Republicans, it was always about math.
That’s just as true with trial witnesses. Senate Republicans know that one way or the other, John Bolton will soon be speaking very loudly on television about Donald Trump’s scandals and crimes. He has a book to promote, and no book author ever turns down the free promotion that comes from doing TV interviews. And no, Trump can’t magically stop Bolton’s book from coming out, no matter how loudly he and his lawyers stomp their feet. The fatalists of the Resistance are absolutely certain that Trump has a magic wand and he just waves it whenever he wants, but in the real world, nothing ever plays out this way.
So the only question here is why Senate Republicans decided that they were better off by forcing John Bolton to go on a TV talk show next week to give his “testimony” instead of simply letting him give his testimony to the Senate. Since they were going to acquit Trump either way, they probably figured they’ll take a little less heat for Bolton’s upcoming bombshells if Bolton isn’t saying it to their faces.
That’s right, get ready for Republican Senators to soon begin arguing that they’re shocked at the full extent of the revelations in John Bolton’s book, and that they can’t be held accountable for their decision to acquit Trump, because they didn’t know just how ugly Bolton’s revelations were. This won’t make any sense, but it won’t have to. It’ll just be the best cover story they can come up with, as they cross their fingers and hope that this sham trial’s negative impact on their careers isn’t a fatal one.
These people are Republicans. They never do the right thing just for its own sake. They never do the wrong thing just for its own sake, either. Concepts like “right” and “wrong” don’t exist to them, or else they wouldn’t be Republicans. They only ever do whatever they think gives them the best odds of keeping their own seat. In this instance they gambled that they’re better off by letting Bolton open the can of worms himself, than by helping him open it. Your job in 2020 is to make sure they gambled wrong.
Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support our 2024 efforts by donating now or sign up for our free mailing list.


WHAT A JOKE!

Last night , Republican Senator Lamar “ the Lame ” Alexander appeared to put any doubts about witnesses to bed , although we knew as Palmer Report stated that “ the Republican Senate would almost certainly end up acquitting him.
” He told some in the media that he would report his decision last night and then it came out , a lame jujitsu logical dump that is almost as hard to explain as the gymnastics Alan “ Dearth of Wits ” Dershowitz is displaying in backtracking about what he said yesterday , that a president could do almost anything @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it in the “ public interest.
” Alexander first stated the obvious , that Trump is guilty , but apparently nothing would reach Alexander ’ s level , given he must have relied upon on the Dearth of Wits : There is no need for more evidence to prove something that has already been proven and that does not meet the United States Constitution ’ s high bar for an impeachable offense .
There is no need for more evidence to prove that the president asked Ukraine to investigate Joe Biden and his @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on television on October 3 , 2019 , and during his July 25 , 2019 , telephone call with the president of Ukraine .
There is no need for more evidence to conclude that the president withheld United States aid , at least in part , to pressure Ukraine to investigate the Bidens… .
It was inappropriate for the president to ask a foreign leader to investigate his political opponent and to withhold United States aid to encourage that investigation .
But then he turned on his own conclusion , stating that the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this has been : The question then is not whether the president did it , but whether the United States Senate or the American people should decide what to do about what he did .
I believe that the Constitution provides that the people should make that decision in the presidential election that begins in Iowa on Monday.… .
The framers believed that there should never , ever be a partisan impeachment… .
Yet not one House Republican voted for these articles .
How you begin with the president is guilty , but @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and partisan the case was , is absurd beyond words .
The republic weeps , as Lame Ass Lamar gets ready to retire .

Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support Palmer Report's 2024 efforts by donating now.
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Last night, Republican Senator Lamar “the Lame” Alexander appeared to put any doubts about witnesses to bed, although we knew as Palmer Report stated that “the Republican Senate would almost certainly end up acquitting him.” He told some in the media that he would report his decision last night and then it came out, a lame jujitsu logical dump that is almost as hard to explain as the gymnastics Alan “Dearth of Wits” Dershowitz is displaying in backtracking about what he said yesterday, that a president could do almost anything to stay in power if he deemed it in the “public interest.” Alexander first stated the obvious, that Trump is guilty, but apparently nothing would reach Alexander’s level, given he must have relied upon on the Dearth of Wits:
There is no need for more evidence to prove something that has already been proven and that does not meet the United States Constitution’s high bar for an impeachable offense. There is no need for more evidence to prove that the president asked Ukraine to investigate Joe Biden and his son, Hunter; he said this on television on October 3, 2019, and during his July 25, 2019, telephone call with the president of Ukraine. There is no need for more evidence to conclude that the president withheld United States aid, at least in part, to pressure Ukraine to investigate the Bidens…. It was inappropriate for the president to ask a foreign leader to investigate his political opponent and to withhold United States aid to encourage that investigation.
But then he turned on his own conclusion, stating that the people should decide and lamenting how partisan this has been:
The question then is not whether the president did it, but whether the United States Senate or the American people should decide what to do about what he did. I believe that the Constitution provides that the people should make that decision in the presidential election that begins in Iowa on Monday.…. The framers believed that there should never, ever be a partisan impeachment…. Yet not one House Republican voted for these articles.
How you begin with the president is guilty, but then turn to how “flimsy” and partisan the case was, is absurd beyond words. The republic weeps, as Lame Ass Lamar gets ready to retire.
Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support our 2024 efforts by donating now or sign up for our free mailing list.


palmerreport--2020-01-31--What every liberal needs to understand in order to win

In politics , the liberals hold all the cards when it comes to facts , virtue , and truth .
So why do the conservatives so often win ?
They don ’ t have to worry about things like facts , virtue , and truth , so they can spend their time focusing on things like strategy , leverage , and winning .
It ’ s time for liberals to start winning more often .
Liberals don ’ t need to become the bad guys to start winning more often .
They just need to spend a little more time @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Here are twenty winning lessons for every liberal out there : Lesson # 1 : Everything in politics is about leverage .
You want to force someone on the other side to bend to your will ?
You figure out what they care about most , and you use it to your advantage .
Being right should be enough , but in politics , it isn ’ t .
Lesson # 2 : Very few people in the highest reaches of politics are mustache twirling cartoon villains who are just looking for mischief @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the House and Senate care about things like money and donors , not about random acts of villainy .
If you want to defeat them , you have to understand what makes them tick .
Stop thinking of them as cartoon characters .
Lesson # 3 : You can never take any politician ’ s words at face value .
The good guys and bad guys are always posturing , trying to use their words to set things in motion .
If you want to figure out what ’ s about to happen @ @ @ @ @ @ @ say is about to happen .
Lesson # 4 : There are two kinds of wins .
The first is when something good happens , such as passing a good law that helps people .
The second kind of win is when something “ bad ” happens to your side that doesn ’ t actually do any harm , and it gives your side better odds in the next election .
Liberals are rarely able to spot the second kind of win , even when it drops right in their lap .
Lesson @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ re going to win .
Liberals always think they ’ re going to lose .
It ’ s why conservatives win often , even though liberals have all the facts and virtue and intelligence and truth on their side .
A winning mindset is contagious .
So is a losing mindset .
To win any election , you have to put in the work .
No one was ever motivated to work harder by being told they ’ re going to lose anyway .
Lesson # 6 : Voters in the middle @ @ @ @ @ @ @ guys , and the Republicans are creepy wackos , so they hold Democrats to a higher standard .
So if they decide the Democratic and Republican candidates are roughly equal in a given election , or that both candidates are terrible , they paradoxically tend to vote for the Republican .
Lesson # 7 : Liberals have the moral high ground , but that can work against them .
There ’ s a tendency for each liberal to want to prove they ’ re the “ best ” liberal , as if it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the most common ways of doing this is to obsessively smear the Democratic frontrunner , to “ prove ” you ’ re better than all the liberals who find the frontrunner acceptable .
This borders on sociopathy .
Knock it off .
Lesson # 8 : Your vote isn ’ t precious .
It ’ s not a sentimentality contest .
You ’ re not picking a spouse .
You ’ re just picking a candidate who can do your dirty work and steer the country in your direction .
Then you turn @ @ @ @ @ @ @ droves .
Conservatives get this .
Liberals often don ’ t .
Lesson # 9 : A president who only moderately leans to the left , but is effective at governing and making deals , will be able to steer the country significantly to the left .
A president who ’ s far-left , but isn ’ t effective at governing or making deals , won ’ t be able to move the country one inch to the left .
Every inch of American presidential history proves this to be the case .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ : Most people think politics is done by magic wand .
Someone in office waves the wand and gets what they want , and then just gets away with it .
But that ’ s never how it works .
Every time a politician or party makes a move , there ’ s pushback , consequences , fallout .
Every single time .
The consequences can be asymmetrical and delayed , which is why you don ’ t always spot them .
But the consequences always come .
No one ever has a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ appears to you that someone in politics just waved a magic wand , it means you misunderstood what just happened .
Go back and study it more closely .
Lesson # 11 : Fairness doesn ’ t exist in politics .
It just doesn ’ t .
And it never will .
Whining about the lack of fairness in politics will never get you anywhere .
But if you ’ re a liberal , you ’ re already fighting for what ’ s right and what ’ s fair in general .
So @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ re making the world better .
If you stop to whine how the battles aren ’ t being fought fairly , no one will care .
You ’ re wasting your time when you could be putting your effort into winning .
Lesson # 12 : Politics is ( metaphorically ) war .
Both sides suffer losses every day .
The losses are never acceptable .
But just because your side is suffering losses , it doesn ’ t mean your side is losing .
The war is won by the side @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sides take losses .
Lesson # 13 : The only scandals that have any impact are the ones that the mainstream media is willing to run with , and that cause the voters in the middle to perk up .
When your side hits on a scandal that ’ s resonating beyond , you should focus heavily on it .
Keep repeating it .
The point is to win voters over .
If a certain scandal or talking point plays well with your side , but is having no impact on anyone in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ditch it .
Lesson # 14 : Liberals are the good guys , so we always want to play up the Republican scandals that we think are the most objectively evil .
But no matter how important you think any given scandal is , if it doesn ’ t win any support or votes for your side , you ’ re not going to win an election by playing up that scandal .
Lesson # 15 : Once you find a scandal that ’ s resonating with the middle , you don ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Republicans did with email and Benghazi , and those weren ’ t even real .
Trump ’ s ( very real ) Ukraine scandal is resonating across the board , so keep pushing it .
Not exclusively , but heavily .
Lesson # 16 : When the Republicans cheat in an election , it ’ s not done by simply pulling a magic lever and getting the desired result .
It takes a ton of cheating effort just to move the needle a tiny fraction .
Voter suppression , gerrymandering , hacking , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ points at most .
Massive turnout can always overcome cheating .
If you run around saying “ They ’ re just going to cheat anyway , ” you ’ re telling people on your side not to bother voting .
Stop it .
Lesson # 17 : Republican politicians always vote based on what they think gives them the best shot at keeping their seat .
Sometimes the vulnerable ones can be pushed into voting with us on something .
Sometimes not .
But it ’ s never about whether they ’ re @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” or “ grow a spine.
” It ’ s about the reelection math they ’ re doing in their heads .
Think of them as pawns to be manipulated , not as people to be believed in or not be believed in .
Whining about how flaky they are is a total waste of your time .
Lesson # 18 : No amount of whining will ever put you any closer to winning .
Lamar Alexander just proved he ’ s a coward .
So what ?
He ’ s irrelevant .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ him .
He ’ s retiring anyway .
Move on and fight meaningful battles .
You can whine , or you can win .
There are only so many hours in a day , and you can ’ t focus on both .
Lesson # 19 : Nothing has ever been sacred in politics .
Andrew Johnson bribed a senator to acquit him .
Reagan conspired with Iran in the 1980 election .
Trump ’ s crimes are nothing new .
American politics has always been a cesspool .
Stop acting like your @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Acknowledge that you ’ re fighting the same old battles that liberals have been fighting for as long as this country has existed , and that you ’ ll continue fighting these same old battles until you get better at winning them .
Lesson # 20 : Liberals are so worried about heartbreak , they convince themselves that the very worst will happen , so they ’ re not let down in case it does happen .
But that kind of fatalism becomes toxic and contagious , and pretty soon , liberals are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lose , they give up trying to win .
Conservatives almost never suffer from this kind of thing , so they have an advantage .
For liberals , knocking off the fatalism is the most important step in winning every battle .

Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support Palmer Report's 2024 efforts by donating now.
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In politics, the liberals hold all the cards when it comes to facts, virtue, and truth. So why do the conservatives so often win? They don’t have to worry about things like facts, virtue, and truth, so they can spend their time focusing on things like strategy, leverage, and winning. It’s time for liberals to start winning more often. Liberals don’t need to become the bad guys to start winning more often. They just need to spend a little more time studying up on how politics works. Here are twenty winning lessons for every liberal out there:
Lesson #1: Everything in politics is about leverage. You want to force someone on the other side to bend to your will? You figure out what they care about most, and you use it to your advantage. Being right should be enough, but in politics, it isn’t.
Lesson #2: Very few people in the highest reaches of politics are mustache twirling cartoon villains who are just looking for mischief. Even the most corrupt politicians in the House and Senate care about things like money and donors, not about random acts of villainy. If you want to defeat them, you have to understand what makes them tick. Stop thinking of them as cartoon characters.
Lesson #3: You can never take any politician’s words at face value. The good guys and bad guys are always posturing, trying to use their words to set things in motion. If you want to figure out what’s about to happen, start by ignoring what the politicians say is about to happen.
Lesson #4: There are two kinds of wins. The first is when something good happens, such as passing a good law that helps people. The second kind of win is when something “bad” happens to your side that doesn’t actually do any harm, and it gives your side better odds in the next election. Liberals are rarely able to spot the second kind of win, even when it drops right in their lap.
Lesson #5: Conservatives always think they’re going to win. Liberals always think they’re going to lose. It’s why conservatives win often, even though liberals have all the facts and virtue and intelligence and truth on their side. A winning mindset is contagious. So is a losing mindset. To win any election, you have to put in the work. No one was ever motivated to work harder by being told they’re going to lose anyway.
Lesson #6: Voters in the middle generally know the Democrats are the good guys, and the Republicans are creepy wackos, so they hold Democrats to a higher standard. So if they decide the Democratic and Republican candidates are roughly equal in a given election, or that both candidates are terrible, they paradoxically tend to vote for the Republican.
Lesson #7: Liberals have the moral high ground, but that can work against them. There’s a tendency for each liberal to want to prove they’re the “best” liberal, as if it’s a competition. One of the most common ways of doing this is to obsessively smear the Democratic frontrunner, to “prove” you’re better than all the liberals who find the frontrunner acceptable. This borders on sociopathy. Knock it off.
Lesson #8: Your vote isn’t precious. It’s not a sentimentality contest. You’re not picking a spouse. You’re just picking a candidate who can do your dirty work and steer the country in your direction. Then you turn out and vote for that candidate in droves. Conservatives get this. Liberals often don’t.
Lesson #9: A president who only moderately leans to the left, but is effective at governing and making deals, will be able to steer the country significantly to the left. A president who’s far-left, but isn’t effective at governing or making deals, won’t be able to move the country one inch to the left. Every inch of American presidential history proves this to be the case. Go study it.
Lesson #10: Most people think politics is done by magic wand. Someone in office waves the wand and gets what they want, and then just gets away with it. But that’s never how it works. Every time a politician or party makes a move, there’s pushback, consequences, fallout. Every single time. The consequences can be asymmetrical and delayed, which is why you don’t always spot them. But the consequences always come. No one ever has a magic wand in politics. If it appears to you that someone in politics just waved a magic wand, it means you misunderstood what just happened. Go back and study it more closely.
Lesson #11: Fairness doesn’t exist in politics. It just doesn’t. And it never will. Whining about the lack of fairness in politics will never get you anywhere. But if you’re a liberal, you’re already fighting for what’s right and what’s fair in general. So whenever you win a battle, you’re making the world better. If you stop to whine how the battles aren’t being fought fairly, no one will care. You’re wasting your time when you could be putting your effort into winning.
Lesson #12: Politics is (metaphorically) war. Both sides suffer losses every day. The losses are never acceptable. But just because your side is suffering losses, it doesn’t mean your side is losing. The war is won by the side that’s still standing after both sides take losses.
Lesson #13: The only scandals that have any impact are the ones that the mainstream media is willing to run with, and that cause the voters in the middle to perk up. When your side hits on a scandal that’s resonating beyond, you should focus heavily on it. Keep repeating it. The point is to win voters over. If a certain scandal or talking point plays well with your side, but is having no impact on anyone in the middle, either revise it or ditch it.
Lesson #14: Liberals are the good guys, so we always want to play up the Republican scandals that we think are the most objectively evil. But no matter how important you think any given scandal is, if it doesn’t win any support or votes for your side, you’re not going to win an election by playing up that scandal.
Lesson #15: Once you find a scandal that’s resonating with the middle, you don’t let up. Look what the Republicans did with email and Benghazi, and those weren’t even real. Trump’s (very real) Ukraine scandal is resonating across the board, so keep pushing it. Not exclusively, but heavily.
Lesson #16: When the Republicans cheat in an election, it’s not done by simply pulling a magic lever and getting the desired result. It takes a ton of cheating effort just to move the needle a tiny fraction. Voter suppression, gerrymandering, hacking, etc, only ever gets them 2-3 points at most. Massive turnout can always overcome cheating. If you run around saying “They’re just going to cheat anyway,” you’re telling people on your side not to bother voting. Stop it.
Lesson #17: Republican politicians always vote based on what they think gives them the best shot at keeping their seat. Sometimes the vulnerable ones can be pushed into voting with us on something. Sometimes not. But it’s never about whether they’re going to “do the right thing” or “grow a spine.” It’s about the reelection math they’re doing in their heads. Think of them as pawns to be manipulated, not as people to be believed in or not be believed in. Whining about how flaky they are is a total waste of your time.
Lesson #18: No amount of whining will ever put you any closer to winning. Lamar Alexander just proved he’s a coward. So what? He’s irrelevant. Don’t waste time obsessing over him. He’s retiring anyway. Move on and fight meaningful battles. You can whine, or you can win. There are only so many hours in a day, and you can’t focus on both.
Lesson #19: Nothing has ever been sacred in politics. Andrew Johnson bribed a senator to acquit him. Reagan conspired with Iran in the 1980 election. Trump’s crimes are nothing new. American politics has always been a cesspool. Stop acting like your centuries old porcelain is suddenly breaking. Acknowledge that you’re fighting the same old battles that liberals have been fighting for as long as this country has existed, and that you’ll continue fighting these same old battles until you get better at winning them.
Lesson #20: Liberals are so worried about heartbreak, they convince themselves that the very worst will happen, so they’re not let down in case it does happen. But that kind of fatalism becomes toxic and contagious, and pretty soon, liberals are so convinced they’re going to lose, they give up trying to win. Conservatives almost never suffer from this kind of thing, so they have an advantage. For liberals, knocking off the fatalism is the most important step in winning every battle.
Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support our 2024 efforts by donating now or sign up for our free mailing list.


palmerreport--2020-01-31--Donald Trump just got his ass kicked

Donald Trump just got his ass kicked

From the day Donald Trump ’ s impeachment started , we all knew that the Republican Senate would almost certainly end up acquitting him .
We knew the trial would be a joke .
We also knew that part didn ’ t matter .
The important part was to impeach him for his crimes , and to use the process to educate voters .
The only measuring stick of our success was going to be what Trump ’ s numbers looked like once it was over .
Trump entered impeachment with an approval rating of just over 40 % , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ chance in the 2020 election .
If Trump wants to win , or to even come close enough to be able to put himself over the top with cheating , he ’ ll have to drive his approval rating at least five points higher between now and November .
Last night the Republican Senate picked its poison by deciding not to let John Bolton testify during the impeachment trial .
Who cares , really ?
They were going to acquit Trump anyway .
The only reason to root for Bolton ’ s testimony @ @ @ @ @ @ @ about Trump ’ s crimes , and thus drive Trump ’ s 2020 odds even lower .
Well guess what ?
Bolton has a new book to promote .
He ’ s going to do television , whether he testifies in a House hearing , or goes on a Sunday morning talk show .
And no , Trump can ’ t magically block Bolton ’ s book from being released , or even delay it .
That ’ s simply not a thing , no matter how much Trump ’ s lawyers stomp @ @ @ @ @ @ @ opportunity to use the big stage of his impeachment trial to win over additional supporters and drive his approval rating incrementally higher .
Instead he pandered to his base , which isn ’ t even close to being large enough to put him over the top in 2020 .
Trump is coming out of impeachment with the same non-competitive approval rating that he started it with .
He needed a win and instead he got nothing out of it .
Therefore , Trump just got his ass kicked .
That ’ s the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is just noise .

Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support Palmer Report's 2024 efforts by donating now.
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From the day Donald Trump’s impeachment started, we all knew that the Republican Senate would almost certainly end up acquitting him. We knew the trial would be a joke. We also knew that part didn’t matter. The important part was to impeach him for his crimes, and to use the process to educate voters. The only measuring stick of our success was going to be what Trump’s numbers looked like once it was over.
Trump entered impeachment with an approval rating of just over 40%, which currently gives him right around zero chance in the 2020 election. If Trump wants to win, or to even come close enough to be able to put himself over the top with cheating, he’ll have to drive his approval rating at least five points higher between now and November.
Last night the Republican Senate picked its poison by deciding not to let John Bolton testify during the impeachment trial. Who cares, really? They were going to acquit Trump anyway. The only reason to root for Bolton’s testimony was that it would educate the public about Trump’s crimes, and thus drive Trump’s 2020 odds even lower. Well guess what? Bolton has a new book to promote. He’s going to do television, whether he testifies in a House hearing, or goes on a Sunday morning talk show. And no, Trump can’t magically block Bolton’s book from being released, or even delay it. That’s simply not a thing, no matter how much Trump’s lawyers stomp their feet.
Donald Trump had an opportunity to use the big stage of his impeachment trial to win over additional supporters and drive his approval rating incrementally higher. Instead he pandered to his base, which isn’t even close to being large enough to put him over the top in 2020. Trump is coming out of impeachment with the same non-competitive approval rating that he started it with. He needed a win and instead he got nothing out of it. Therefore, Trump just got his ass kicked. That’s the only realistic conclusion here. Anything else is just noise.
Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support our 2024 efforts by donating now or sign up for our free mailing list.


palmerreport--2020-02-03--Joe Manchin of all people may have just saved the day for the Democrats in Trump’s impeachment trial

Just a couple weeks ago , the doomsday pundits were trying to convince us that Democratic Senator Joe Manchin might cast a deciding vote to acquit Donald Trump .
Meanwhile , back in the real world , Manchin loyally votes with the Democrats 100 % of the time whenever his vote is the deciding one .
He only votes with the Republicans on things where it ’ s not going to come down to one vote anyway , so he can go home to his red state of West Virginia and tell them he votes in bipartisan fashion .
This @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it or not ; go look up his voting record if you must .
Now Joe Manchin is revealing his actual plan for the impeachment trial .
The Senate Republicans have made clear that they ’ re not going to call witnesses , and they ’ re not going to convict Trump .
They have the majority , so there ’ s nothing any Democrat can do to change this .
But this evening Manchin introduced a measure to censure Trump instead of acquitting him .
Manchin , who has close relationships with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the most nervous about how a sham acquittal might blow back on them , is asserting that there are the votes to censure Trump .
In terms of right and wrong and fairness , a censure isn ’ t acceptable .
Donald Trump is guilty of high crimes , and he should be convicted and removed .
But the Republicans won ’ t let that happen .
If Manchin has indeed managed to talk enough Senate Republicans into voting to censure Trump , it would be a huge political victory for the Democrats @ @ @ @ @ @ @ into the 2020 election pointing out that even Trump ’ s own fellow Republicans have acknowledged his wrongdoing .
And it would kill Trump ’ s narrative about having made a perfect phone call and so on .
Senate Republicans should never , ever be trusted to do the right thing simply for its own sake .
But we ’ ve seen that they are willing to do the right thing if it happens to coincidentally line up with whatever they think is best for their own careers .
Keep in mind that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Trump have impeachment trial witnesses such as Hunter Biden , like he wanted .
We ’ ll see if the censure movement goes anywhere .
But if it does , it ’ ll mean Joe Manchin of all people saved the day by turning the impeachment trial into a win for Democrats and a loss for Trump .

Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support Palmer Report's 2024 efforts by donating now.
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Just a couple weeks ago, the doomsday pundits were trying to convince us that Democratic Senator Joe Manchin might cast a deciding vote to acquit Donald Trump. Meanwhile, back in the real world, Manchin loyally votes with the Democrats 100% of the time whenever his vote is the deciding one. He only votes with the Republicans on things where it’s not going to come down to one vote anyway, so he can go home to his red state of West Virginia and tell them he votes in bipartisan fashion. This is true whether you want to believe it or not; go look up his voting record if you must.
Now Joe Manchin is revealing his actual plan for the impeachment trial. The Senate Republicans have made clear that they’re not going to call witnesses, and they’re not going to convict Trump. They have the majority, so there’s nothing any Democrat can do to change this. But this evening Manchin introduced a measure to censure Trump instead of acquitting him. Manchin, who has close relationships with some of the Republican Senators who are the most nervous about how a sham acquittal might blow back on them, is asserting that there are the votes to censure Trump.
In terms of right and wrong and fairness, a censure isn’t acceptable. Donald Trump is guilty of high crimes, and he should be convicted and removed. But the Republicans won’t let that happen. If Manchin has indeed managed to talk enough Senate Republicans into voting to censure Trump, it would be a huge political victory for the Democrats. It would allow them to go into the 2020 election pointing out that even Trump’s own fellow Republicans have acknowledged his wrongdoing. And it would kill Trump’s narrative about having made a perfect phone call and so on.
Senate Republicans should never, ever be trusted to do the right thing simply for its own sake. But we’ve seen that they are willing to do the right thing if it happens to coincidentally line up with whatever they think is best for their own careers. Keep in mind that they already selfishly decided not to let Trump have impeachment trial witnesses such as Hunter Biden, like he wanted. We’ll see if the censure movement goes anywhere. But if it does, it’ll mean Joe Manchin of all people saved the day by turning the impeachment trial into a win for Democrats and a loss for Trump.
Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support our 2024 efforts by donating now or sign up for our free mailing list.


palmerreport--2020-02-03--The real reason the South Carolina primary tells us who’s really going to be the Democratic nominee

Someone is going to win the Democratic 2020 Iowa caucus tonight .
I don ’ t know who it will be .
The most recent polls have all shown a competitive race , but are sharply inconsistent with each other , and that ’ s the best recipe for simply admitting that no one has any idea who ’ s going to win .
That said , tonight ’ s results won ’ t tell us who ’ s going to be the nominee .
Neither will New Hampshire .
Instead we ’ ll be getting our answers from South @ @ @ @ @ @ @ answer is that Iowa and New Hampshire only reveal how non-urban white Democrats feel about the candidates .
Their votes matter , of course , but it doesn ’ t tell us anything about how any other voting demographic feels about the candidates .
The winner ( s ) of these two states are labeled the frontrunners , but this is never actually the case .
Nevada comes next , and it has a more diverse population .
But Nevada hasn ’ t been an “ early state ” for long , so @ @ @ @ @ @ @ its results do or don ’ t end up lining up with the rest of the primary .
In addition , Nevada ’ s chaotic , exclusionary , and confusing caucus format means the results are just as off-kilter as the Iowa caucus results .
So we take Nevada with yet another grain of salt , and we move on to South Carolina .
This is the part where supporters of the Iowa and New Hampshire winners start crying foul .
Why should a deep south state like South Carolina get to pick @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Democrat isn ’ t going to win South Carolina in the general election anyway .
This is true , but irrelevant .
South Carolina is crucial in the primary contest because it ’ s the first look at how the African American vote is aligned .
Black turnout in the South Carolina Democratic primary doesn ’ t have a perfect correlation with black turnout in swing states in the general election , but it ends up being close – and the Democrat can ’ t win the general election without strong black turnout @ @ @ @ @ @ @ term , South Carolina offers strong insight into how the candidates will fare a few days later on Super Tuesday .
If anyone dominates on Super Tuesday , they ’ re nearly a lock for the nomination .
If anyone gets blown out on Super Tuesday , they ’ re essentially finished .
If Super Tuesday ends up being a close contest between two or more candidates , we ’ re looking at a long primary contest between those candidates .
Iowa and New Hampshire tell us nothing about Super Tuesday .
South @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
That ’ s why Iowa and New Hampshire can be safely ignored , and South Carolina is appointment viewing .

Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support Palmer Report's 2024 efforts by donating now.
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Someone is going to win the Democratic 2020 Iowa caucus tonight. I don’t know who it will be. The most recent polls have all shown a competitive race, but are sharply inconsistent with each other, and that’s the best recipe for simply admitting that no one has any idea who’s going to win. That said, tonight’s results won’t tell us who’s going to be the nominee. Neither will New Hampshire. Instead we’ll be getting our answers from South Carolina. But why?
The simple answer is that Iowa and New Hampshire only reveal how non-urban white Democrats feel about the candidates. Their votes matter, of course, but it doesn’t tell us anything about how any other voting demographic feels about the candidates. The winner(s) of these two states are labeled the frontrunners, but this is never actually the case.
Nevada comes next, and it has a more diverse population. But Nevada hasn’t been an “early state” for long, so it’s difficult to measure how its results do or don’t end up lining up with the rest of the primary. In addition, Nevada’s chaotic, exclusionary, and confusing caucus format means the results are just as off-kilter as the Iowa caucus results. So we take Nevada with yet another grain of salt, and we move on to South Carolina.
This is the part where supporters of the Iowa and New Hampshire winners start crying foul. Why should a deep south state like South Carolina get to pick the nominee? After all, the Democrat isn’t going to win South Carolina in the general election anyway. This is true, but irrelevant. South Carolina is crucial in the primary contest because it’s the first look at how the African American vote is aligned. Black turnout in the South Carolina Democratic primary doesn’t have a perfect correlation with black turnout in swing states in the general election, but it ends up being close – and the Democrat can’t win the general election without strong black turnout in swing states.
In the shorter term, South Carolina offers strong insight into how the candidates will fare a few days later on Super Tuesday. If anyone dominates on Super Tuesday, they’re nearly a lock for the nomination. If anyone gets blown out on Super Tuesday, they’re essentially finished. If Super Tuesday ends up being a close contest between two or more candidates, we’re looking at a long primary contest between those candidates. Iowa and New Hampshire tell us nothing about Super Tuesday. South Carolina tells us plenty about Super Tuesday. That’s why Iowa and New Hampshire can be safely ignored, and South Carolina is appointment viewing.
Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support our 2024 efforts by donating now or sign up for our free mailing list.


palmerreport--2020-02-03--Kansas City Police Department slam dunks Donald Trump

Last night Donald Trump revealed that he apparently doesn ’ t even know there ’ s a Kansas City in Missouri – let alone the fact that it ’ s where the Kansas City Chiefs play their games – when he congratulated the state of Kansas ( but not the state of Missouri ) for its Super Bowl victory .
If there ’ s one person in the United States who should know this kind of geography , it ’ s the President of the United States .
Jokes about Donald Trump ’ s ignorance have continued to pile up @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Kansas City ( Missouri ) Police Department got in on the act , posting this tweet after midnight : Considering the attention that Donald Trump ’ s infamous tweet was getting by that time , there ’ s no question that the tweet was poking fun at Trump .
This comes after Trump revealed last year that he thought Alabama bordered the Pacific Ocean , and then later tried to cover for it by altering a map with a Sharpie .
Trump also once asserted that he ’ s building a border @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .

Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support Palmer Report's 2024 efforts by donating now.
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Last night Donald Trump revealed that he apparently doesn’t even know there’s a Kansas City in Missouri – let alone the fact that it’s where the Kansas City Chiefs play their games – when he congratulated the state of Kansas (but not the state of Missouri) for its Super Bowl victory. If there’s one person in the United States who should know this kind of geography, it’s the President of the United States.
Jokes about Donald Trump’s ignorance have continued to pile up since his infamous Kansas tweet. Even the Kansas City (Missouri) Police Department got in on the act, posting this tweet after midnight:
Now that everyone is paying attention to Kansas City, it seems people are confused: We’re from MISSOURI. Check our profile pic – It’s our Missouri-shaped patch.
Considering the attention that Donald Trump’s infamous tweet was getting by that time, there’s no question that the tweet was poking fun at Trump. This comes after Trump revealed last year that he thought Alabama bordered the Atlantic Ocean, and then later tried to cover for it by altering a map with a Sharpie. Trump also once asserted that he’s building a border wall in Colorado because it borders Mexico.
Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support our 2024 efforts by donating now or sign up for our free mailing list.