palmerreport--2020-02-12--Donald Trump is making a huge mistake if he pardons Roger Stone

Roger Stone ’ s prison sentence isn ’ t going to be any different just because Donald Trump had Attorney General Bill Barr corruptly intervene to change the sentencing guidelines .
You ’ d have to be brainwashed by the doomsday pundits to the point of near hysteria to actually believe that Judge Jackson is going to give Stone a shorter prison sentence because of this laugh-out-loud ineffective stunt .
But what happens when Stone does get the same prison sentence that Jackson was always going to give him ?
That ’ s when Donald Trump will have a difficult @ @ @ @ @ @ @ clearly afraid that Roger Stone will seek revenge if he doesn ’ t find a way to help Stone .
But Trump ’ s move today makes equally clear that Trump is very hesitant to pardon Stone , and he ’ s trying to find a way around it .
If you ’ ve spent these past few years listening to actual legal experts , as opposed to the “ magic pardon ” hype on television , you ’ re aware of why Trump has never pardoned any of his co-conspirators .
If @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Flynn , or any of his co-conspirators , it ’ ll trigger an immediate legal battle over pardon powers .
Because no president has ever tried it , there ’ s almost no established precedent as to whether a president can pardon a co-conspirator , or a family member , or himself .
If those questions do end up in court now , and the ruling comes down before the end of Trump ’ s term , he could end up being unable to try to pardon himself and his kids on his @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s also the reality that people like Paul Manafort and Roger Stone ( who has a secondary residence in New York City ) would go down on state level charges in New York even if Trump did pardon them on federal charges .
So why bother ?
But because Roger Stone and Donald Trump have been personal friends for forty years , and because Stone basically collects dirt on his friends for a living , Trump has to worry that Stone could reveal some truly ugly things about Trump ’ s personal life @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the sheer number of things that could go wrong if he pardons Stone .
We ’ re already seeing that Donald Trump ’ s mere decision to meddle in Roger Stone ’ s sentencing guidelines ( which again , won ’ t actually reduce Stone ’ s sentence ) has exploded into the kind of scandal that will dominate the 2020 election cycle .
Trump just handed the Democrats a huge opening for the election .
If Trump now turns around and pardons Stone , it ’ ll make that scandal ten times @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as well root for Trump to pardon Stone .
In such case Stone will still get what ’ s coming to him , and Trump will limp into the 2020 election in an even weaker position .

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Roger Stone’s prison sentence isn’t going to be any different just because Donald Trump had Attorney General Bill Barr corruptly intervene to change the sentencing guidelines. You’d have to be brainwashed by the doomsday pundits to the point of near hysteria to actually believe that Judge Jackson is going to give Stone a shorter prison sentence because of this laugh-out-loud ineffective stunt. But what happens when Stone does get the same prison sentence that Jackson was always going to give him?
That’s when Donald Trump will have a difficult decision to make. He’s clearly afraid that Roger Stone will seek revenge if he doesn’t find a way to help Stone. But Trump’s move today makes equally clear that Trump is very hesitant to pardon Stone, and he’s trying to find a way around it. If you’ve spent these past few years listening to actual legal experts, as opposed to the “magic pardon” hype on television, you’re aware of why Trump has never pardoned any of his co-conspirators.
If Trump pardons Roger Stone, or Michael Flynn, or any of his co-conspirators, it’ll trigger an immediate legal battle over pardon powers. Because no president has ever tried it, there’s almost no established precedent as to whether a president can pardon a co-conspirator, or a family member, or himself. If those questions do end up in court now, and the ruling comes down before the end of Trump’s term, he could end up being unable to try to pardon himself and his kids on his way out the door. There’s also the reality that people like Paul Manafort and Roger Stone (who has a secondary residence in New York City) would go down on state level charges in New York even if Trump did pardon them on federal charges. So why bother?
But because Roger Stone and Donald Trump have been personal friends for forty years, and because Stone basically collects dirt on his friends for a living, Trump has to worry that Stone could reveal some truly ugly things about Trump’s personal life. Trump has to weigh that against the sheer number of things that could go wrong if he pardons Stone.
We’re already seeing that Donald Trump’s mere decision to meddle in Roger Stone’s sentencing guidelines (which again, won’t actually reduce Stone’s sentence) has exploded into the kind of scandal that will dominate the 2020 election cycle. Trump just handed the Democrats a huge opening for the election. If Trump now turns around and pardons Stone, it’ll make that scandal ten times uglier. At this point you might as well root for Trump to pardon Stone. In such case Stone will still get what’s coming to him, and Trump will limp into the 2020 election in an even weaker position.
Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support our 2024 efforts by donating now or sign up for our free mailing list.


palmerreport--2020-02-12--Now the Democratic primary race can really begin

The news media would have you think that the Democrats are truly struggling at this point .
Iowa and New Hampshire do not a successful presidential campaign make .
Bernie Sanders beat Hillary Clinton thoroughly in New Hampshire , but he was unable to carry that victory nationwide , leaving Hillary Clinton the nominee by millions of votes .
Now , the media is counting out Joe Biden because of the results in Iowa and New Hampshire while Biden , according to FiveThirtyEight , is counting on South Carolina , Nevada and the fourteen states that vote on Super Tuesday @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not do well in New Hampshire , and left early for South Carolina .
Does any of this matter ?
According to FiveThirtyEight , yes and no .
Vox followed up on that issue and believes that Iowa and New Hampshire “ shouldn ’ t go first ” anymore .
Julián Castro dropped out because the initial primaries are held in Iowa and New Hampshire , which are 9 % and 6 % , respectively , people of color .
At the time , the Democratic Party tweeted that Castro was correct : @ @ @ @ @ @ @ & representation & then exclude People of Color from our voting primaries.
” This supports FiveThirtyEight ’ s contention that Biden ’ s position makes sense because Iowa and New Hampshire are “ nearly all white.
” Vox echoes this sentiment and goes a bit more into detail about this claim .
Both states are roughly 90 % white while the rest of America is 60 % white , and the Democratic base is 40 % people of color .
Biden maintains his lead among black voters , but FiveThirtyEight ’ s Geoffrey @ @ @ @ @ @ @ states maintain a level of influence over the remaining states .
For example , Skelley said that a 37 % change occurred in national polls after John Kerry won both Iowa and New Hampshire ( though he didn ’ t win the presidency ) .
These early results obviously don ’ t accurately reflect the entire voting public .

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The news media would have you think that the Democrats are truly struggling at this point. Iowa and New Hampshire do not a successful presidential campaign make. Bernie Sanders beat Hillary Clinton thoroughly in New Hampshire, but he was unable to carry that victory nationwide, leaving Hillary Clinton the nominee by millions of votes.
Now, the media is counting out Joe Biden because of the results in Iowa and New Hampshire while Biden, according to FiveThirtyEight, is counting on South Carolina, Nevada and the fourteen states that vote on Super Tuesday. Indeed, Biden knew he would not do well in New Hampshire, and left early for South Carolina. Does any of this matter? According to FiveThirtyEight, yes and no. Vox followed up on that issue and believes that Iowa and New Hampshire “shouldn’t go first” anymore.
Julián Castro dropped out because the initial primaries are held in Iowa and New Hampshire, which are 9% and 6%, respectively, people of color. At the time, the Democratic Party tweeted that Castro was correct: “We cannot preach racial justice & representation & then exclude People of Color from our voting primaries.” This supports FiveThirtyEight’s contention that Biden’s position makes sense because Iowa and New Hampshire are “nearly all white.” Vox echoes this sentiment and goes a bit more into detail about this claim.
Both states are roughly 90% white while the rest of America is 60% white, and the Democratic base is 40% people of color. Biden maintains his lead among black voters, but FiveThirtyEight’s Geoffrey Skelley notes that these two predominantly white states maintain a level of influence over the remaining states. For example, Skelley said that a 37% change occurred in national polls after John Kerry won both Iowa and New Hampshire (though he didn’t win the presidency). These early results obviously don’t accurately reflect the entire voting public.
Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support our 2024 efforts by donating now or sign up for our free mailing list.


palmerreport--2020-02-12--No one gets it

No one gets it

In the week since his sham acquittal , Donald Trump has been acting pretty much exactly like he always acts .
He ’ s firing good people out of pure vengeance .
He ’ s corruptly meddling in the criminal prosecutions of his co-conspirators .
He ’ s tweeting menacing things .
He ’ s not “ emboldened , ” because none of this is new .
But because everyone is watching him right now to see how he behaves post-acquittal , everything he does at the moment is magnified .
The beautiful part is that he ’ s self @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s continuing to do precisely the kinds of corrupt , inept , absurd , bonkers things that he ’ s always done .
He ’ s proving the Democrats and Mitt Romney right .
He ’ s proving that the Republican Senate shirked its duty when it had the opportunity to remove him – and he ’ s doing it with all eyes on him .
Imagine if Trump were acting perfectly reasonable , normal , sane , and conciliatory right now .
That kind of behavior might give him a chance at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ weak approval rating .
If Trump were willing or able to play the part , we ’ d have a much harder time defeating him in November .
Instead , he ’ s handing us a huge gift .
Maybe it ’ s because he ’ s afraid of losing his base if he acts too normal .
Or maybe he ’ s just too far gone to be able to control himself .
Either way , it ’ s a gift , and a timely one .
Some of you get this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ one does .
Right now we ’ re seeing some Resistance members coming up with some of the most histrionic and hallucinatory fatalist scenarios yet .
Some folks are even imagining∂ doomsday scenarios in which Trump magically cancels the election .
If only the Resistance were better at understanding what winning and losing actually looks like .
Trump is aggressively punching himself in the face repeatedly right now .
Will the Resistance mistakenly cower in fear while muttering fatalist hallucinations , or will the Resistance step up over these next several months and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to hand us a win .
Will we invent reasons to pout and cry , or will we step up and seize the opportunity ?

Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support Palmer Report's 2024 efforts by donating now.
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In the week since his sham acquittal, Donald Trump has been acting pretty much exactly like he always acts. He’s firing good people out of pure vengeance. He’s corruptly meddling in the criminal prosecutions of his co-conspirators. He’s tweeting menacing things. He’s not “emboldened,” because none of this is new. But because everyone is watching him right now to see how he behaves post-acquittal, everything he does at the moment is magnified.
The beautiful part is that he’s self destructing right on schedule. He’s continuing to do precisely the kinds of corrupt, inept, absurd, bonkers things that he’s always done. He’s proving the Democrats and Mitt Romney right. He’s proving that the Republican Senate shirked its duty when it had the opportunity to remove him – and he’s doing it with all eyes on him.
Imagine if Trump were acting perfectly reasonable, normal, sane, and conciliatory right now. That kind of behavior might give him a chance at winning over some fence-sitters and boosting his weak approval rating. If Trump were willing or able to play the part, we’d have a much harder time defeating him in November. Instead, he’s handing us a huge gift. Maybe it’s because he’s afraid of losing his base if he acts too normal. Or maybe he’s just too far gone to be able to control himself. Either way, it’s a gift, and a timely one.
Some of you get this. But at large, almost no one does. Right now we’re seeing some Resistance members coming up with some of the most histrionic and hallucinatory fatalist scenarios yet. Some folks are even imagining∂ doomsday scenarios in which Trump magically cancels the election. If only the Resistance were better at understanding what winning and losing actually looks like. Trump is aggressively punching himself in the face repeatedly right now. Will the Resistance mistakenly cower in fear while muttering fatalist hallucinations, or will the Resistance step up over these next several months and finish him off? Trump is trying to hand us a win. Will we invent reasons to pout and cry, or will we step up and seize the opportunity?
Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support our 2024 efforts by donating now or sign up for our free mailing list.


palmerreport--2020-02-12--What Donald Trump is really doing right now

I ’ m reminded of the time when at the Berghof , Adolf Hitler ’ s Berchtesgaden retreat , Der Fuhrer remarked to no one in particular ( though Martin Bormann was in attendance ) how a house in the distance spoiled the sweep and majesty of his mountain view .
Within a week the house was gone .
Hitler ’ s little cockroach Bormann had quietly arranged its removal .
Donald Trump recently tweeted about how unfair it was that Roger Stone should receive such a harsh sentencing recommendation from the prosecutors for his crimes .
( Unfair in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ separated from their parents at the border , or unfair in the sense of the horror the innocent children endured when Donald Trump raped them then threatened to have their families murdered if they tell ?
Trump doesn ’ t say . )
Trump ’ s little cockroach William Barr thereupon immediately and unilaterally changed the prosecutor ’ s recommendation from 7 to 9 years to 3 to 4 years .
First , a couple of things need to be made clear .
There are three often inaccurate sentence predictors that a criminal @ @ @ @ @ @ @ statutory limit .
That is the maximum sentence a judge is permitted to render by law .
The second is the sentence recommended by prosecutors .
The third is the sentence recommended by the defense .
When , for example , Bill Cosby was brought up on three counts of sexual assault , there was a lot of hopeful talk that he would get thirty years in prison because the statutory limit was ten years per count .
That was wishful thinking , of course , but considering the fact that Cosby raped @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it would have been a just sentence all the same .
But the prosecutors asked for five to ten years .
The defense asked for a custodial sentence at home .
The judge sentenced Cosby to three to ten years .
That ’ s how it works .
No one knows for certain how the judge in the case of the Roger Stone matter , Amy Berman Jackson , will react .
But given her cool-headed , unflappable history of steady jurisprudence , I expect she will find a sentence somewhere between the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ defendant ’ s lawyer ’ s recommendation , applying her same considered guidelines that she ’ s always used when sentencing defendants in the past .
The sentence will be nowhere near the statutory maximum , of course .
Many will see whatever her sentence turns out to be , therefore , as a sellout to Barr .
This is almost certainly nonsense .
William Barr probably knows this .
So , too , do the four prosecutors who resigned in protest .
So what ’ s going on here ?
The game @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , with all the points for moral rectitude going to the four prosecutors .
Naturally , their withdrawal from the case ( one of the four actually quit the government ) was symbolic of their outrage at the corruption of this current administration , and good for them , I say .
They did the right thing .
William Barr , on the other hand , who merits all the boos and hisses any despicable villain should hear as a constant leitmotif every time he mounts the stage , also knows that his @ @ @ @ @ @ @ seriously .
He probably has even told Trump as much .
The point is Roger Stone doesn ’ t know it , and it looks like his old buddy Donald Trump , through his pathetic running dog Barr , is stepping up to the plate and going to bat for him .
The reality is if they were to resurrect the electric chair tomorrow and make Stone its very first victim Trump really wouldn ’ t give a crap .
This is all part of Trump ’ s long range strategic plan , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to him by Barr .
The game is this .
By firing Colonel Vindman , his brother and Ambassador Sondland , Trump is taking tactical and immediate vengeance .
By stepping up and appearing to help Roger Stone , Trump is sending a long range strategic message that he will use what power he has to reward the loyal .
He may even wind up pardoning Stone , if it appears that it will do him more strategic good than harm .
In any case , Trump ’ s immediate and vicious punishments @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the rank and file who would dare blow a whistle or testify or speak truth to power .
And the tactical examples he ’ s made of the Vindmans and Sondland is there to send a message to any and all that Donald Trump ’ s vengeance is terrible and swift .
Trump , of course , lacks the mind to understand these subtleties .
Many of his handlers understand it , or ought to .
Whether they understand it fully , that is , whether or not they have articulated in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ actually playing out , the end result is the same .
Trump has a long range strategic message to prospective friends and enemies , and an immediate tactical means of retribution at the ready to destroy anyone who steps out of line .

Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support Palmer Report's 2024 efforts by donating now.
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I’m reminded of the time when at the Berghof, Adolf Hitler’s Berchtesgaden retreat, Der Fuhrer remarked to no one in particular (though Martin Bormann was in attendance) how a house in the distance spoiled the sweep and majesty of his mountain view. Within a week the house was gone. Hitler’s little cockroach Bormann had quietly arranged its removal.
Donald Trump recently tweeted about how unfair it was that Roger Stone should receive such a harsh sentencing recommendation from the prosecutors for his crimes. (Unfair in the sense that children are still unlawfully separated from their parents at the border, or unfair in the sense of the horror the innocent children endured when Donald Trump raped them then threatened to have their families murdered if they tell? Trump doesn’t say.) Trump’s little cockroach William Barr thereupon immediately and unilaterally changed the prosecutor’s recommendation from 7 to 9 years to 3 to 4 years.
First, a couple of things need to be made clear. There are three often inaccurate sentence predictors that a criminal will receive. The first is the statutory limit. That is the maximum sentence a judge is permitted to render by law. The second is the sentence recommended by prosecutors. The third is the sentence recommended by the defense.
When, for example, Bill Cosby was brought up on three counts of sexual assault, there was a lot of hopeful talk that he would get thirty years in prison because the statutory limit was ten years per count. That was wishful thinking, of course, but considering the fact that Cosby raped approximately one hundred women in his life it would have been a just sentence all the same. But the prosecutors asked for five to ten years. The defense asked for a custodial sentence at home. The judge sentenced Cosby to three to ten years. That’s how it works.
No one knows for certain how the judge in the case of the Roger Stone matter, Amy Berman Jackson, will react. But given her cool-headed, unflappable history of steady jurisprudence, I expect she will find a sentence somewhere between the original prosecution’s recommendation and the defendant’s lawyer’s recommendation, applying her same considered guidelines that she’s always used when sentencing defendants in the past. The sentence will be nowhere near the statutory maximum, of course. Many will see whatever her sentence turns out to be, therefore, as a sellout to Barr. This is almost certainly nonsense.
William Barr probably knows this. So, too, do the four prosecutors who resigned in protest. So what’s going on here? The game is largely a political, theoretical one, with all the points for moral rectitude going to the four prosecutors. Naturally, their withdrawal from the case (one of the four actually quit the government) was symbolic of their outrage at the corruption of this current administration, and good for them, I say. They did the right thing.
William Barr, on the other hand, who merits all the boos and hisses any despicable villain should hear as a constant leitmotif every time he mounts the stage, also knows that his recommendation probably won’t be taken seriously. He probably has even told Trump as much. The point is Roger Stone doesn’t know it, and it looks like his old buddy Donald Trump, through his pathetic running dog Barr, is stepping up to the plate and going to bat for him. The reality is if they were to resurrect the electric chair tomorrow and make Stone its very first victim Trump really wouldn’t give a crap. This is all part of Trump’s long range strategic plan, as, no doubt, carefully explained to him by Barr.
The game is this. By firing Colonel Vindman, his brother and Ambassador Sondland, Trump is taking tactical and immediate vengeance. By stepping up and appearing to help Roger Stone, Trump is sending a long range strategic message that he will use what power he has to reward the loyal. He may even wind up pardoning Stone, if it appears that it will do him more strategic good than harm.
In any case, Trump’s immediate and vicious punishments serve a strategic chilling effect on any in the rank and file who would dare blow a whistle or testify or speak truth to power. And the tactical examples he’s made of the Vindmans and Sondland is there to send a message to any and all that Donald Trump’s vengeance is terrible and swift.
Trump, of course, lacks the mind to understand these subtleties. Many of his handlers understand it, or ought to. Whether they understand it fully, that is, whether or not they have articulated in their own minds how this game is actually playing out, the end result is the same. Trump has a long range strategic message to prospective friends and enemies, and an immediate tactical means of retribution at the ready to destroy anyone who steps out of line.
Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support our 2024 efforts by donating now or sign up for our free mailing list.


palmerreport--2020-02-12--Hey Donald Trump, your Russian bots are malfunctioning again

Last night Donald Trump got some bad news in the New Hampshire Republican primary .
His challenger Bill Weld received around 12,000 votes , suggesting that there ’ s a very real anti-Trump sentiment among Republican voters .
Of course this was foreshadowed when the ceremonial opening round of New Hampshire voting in Dixville Notch saw Trump somehow lose the Republican primary to Mike Bloomberg , thanks to a write-in effort .
Of course this means that Donald Trump ’ s unhealthy obsession with Mike Bloomberg is stronger than ever .
Apropos of nothing in particular , Trump announced last @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bad night for Mini Mike !
” Perhaps someone forgot to tell Trump that Bloomberg wasn ’ t even participating in the New Hampshire primary , and therefore couldn ’ t have had a “ bad night.
” But that didn ’ t stop some Trump fans from chiming in with their voices of support .
For instance one – ahem – Trump fan named “ Dragonking ” replied with this : Bloomberg is evil and he supports dictator .
Also he conducted illegal things , and his criminal will to exposed to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ re pretty sure that ’ s a Russian bot , or some kind of bot .
That ’ s not broken English .
That ’ s the kind of mangled English you ’ d only see from a computerized algorithm .
Is Donald Trump – or whoever is running this bot farm – expecting anyone to believe that tweets like this are somehow authentic ?

Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support Palmer Report's 2024 efforts by donating now.
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Last night Donald Trump got some bad news in the New Hampshire Republican primary. His challenger Bill Weld received around 12,000 votes, suggesting that there’s a very real anti-Trump sentiment among Republican voters. Of course this was foreshadowed when the ceremonial opening round of New Hampshire voting in Dixville Notch saw Trump somehow lose the Republican primary to Mike Bloomberg, thanks to a write-in effort.
Of course this means that Donald Trump’s unhealthy obsession with Mike Bloomberg is stronger than ever. Apropos of nothing in particular, Trump announced last night that it was “A very bad night for Mini Mike!” Perhaps someone forgot to tell Trump that Bloomberg wasn’t even participating in the New Hampshire primary, and therefore couldn’t have had a “bad night.” But that didn’t stop some Trump fans from chiming in with their voices of support. For instance one – ahem – Trump fan named “Dragonking” replied with this:
Bloomberg is evil and he supports dictator. Also he conducted illegal things, and his criminal will to exposed to the light soon.
Yeah, we’re pretty sure that’s a Russian bot, or some kind of bot. That’s not broken English. That’s the kind of mangled English you’d only see from a computerized algorithm. Is Donald Trump – or whoever is running this bot farm – expecting anyone to believe that tweets like this are somehow authentic?
Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support our 2024 efforts by donating now or sign up for our free mailing list.


palmerreport--2020-02-12--So those New Hampshire primary results were… interesting

Bernie Sanders won the New Hampshire primary last night , and thankfully , we got a timely and definitive result instead of a repeat of the Iowa caucus .
Pete Buttigieg came in a close second in New Hampshire , while Amy Klobuchar came in a close third , with Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren doing poorly .
So where does this leave us ?
In terms of official results , two states in , Pete Buttigieg is now slightly ahead of Bernie Sanders in terms of total delegates , with everyone else being pretty far off the pace .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ shift in terms of voting demographics , as we move from two nearly all-white states , to the diverse states of Nevada and South Carolina .
We can now forget about any “ momentum ” we ’ ve seen up to this point , because it ’ s probably not going to translate to what comes next .
Let ’ s put it this way : the scant polling in Nevada still suggests that Joe Biden will narrowly win the state .
The more comprehensive polling in South Carolina suggests that Biden will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ State primary polls are always iffy , but if these two states do play out this way , Biden will be in the lead .
The pundits will talk about a “ miracle ” comeback , when in reality all that will have happened is that we ’ ll have finally gotten to diverse states , where Biden thrives .
That said , if Biden does poorly in South Carolina , he ’ ll be finished .
But his poor finishes in Iowa and New Hampshire don ’ t actually tell us anything @ @ @ @ @ @ @ anything at all from these first two states .
For instance , we now know that Pete Buttigieg does far better with white suburban Democratic voters than the pollsters were expecting .
Does this mean the pollsters have also been under-sampling Pete ’ s support when it comes to nonwhite voters ?
We ’ ll soon find out .
Until we see the results from these next two states , we really don ’ t know anything on this front .
The fate of Bernie Sanders is even trickier to decipher .
We @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in Iowa and New Hampshire , as he tends to do best in nearly all-white states .
But he came in a few points below his Iowa poll numbers , and he came in several points below his New Hampshire poll numbers , suggesting that pollsters may be over-sampling him when it comes to white voters .
But again , we have no idea if this trend will translate to the more diverse states .
So even though we ’ ve seen some surprising results ( and some not so surprising results ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ still don ’ t know much .
Trying to use these results to predict who will do well in the diverse states is like trying to use the pole vaulting results to determine how these same athletes will perform in the ice skating contest .
Three weeks from now , the top five candidates could end up being in completely reverse order .
Maybe next time we should just admit that Iowa and New Hampshire aren ’ t going to tell us anything before we spend all this time and effort pretending they @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .

Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support Palmer Report's 2024 efforts by donating now.
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Bernie Sanders won the New Hampshire primary last night, and thankfully, we got a timely and definitive result instead of a repeat of the Iowa caucus. Pete Buttigieg came in a close second in New Hampshire, while Amy Klobuchar came in a close third, with Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren doing poorly. So where does this leave us?
In terms of official results, two states in, Pete Buttigieg is now slightly ahead of Bernie Sanders in terms of total delegates, with everyone else being pretty far off the pace. But now the race takes a significant shift in terms of voting demographics, as we move from two nearly all-white states, to the diverse states of Nevada and South Carolina. We can now forget about any “momentum” we’ve seen up to this point, because it’s probably not going to translate to what comes next.
Let’s put it this way: the scant polling in Nevada still suggests that Joe Biden will narrowly win the state. The more comprehensive polling in South Carolina suggests that Biden will win the state by double digits. State primary polls are always iffy, but if these two states do play out this way, Biden will be in the lead. The pundits will talk about a “miracle” comeback, when in reality all that will have happened is that we’ll have finally gotten to diverse states, where Biden thrives. That said, if Biden does poorly in South Carolina, he’ll be finished. But his poor finishes in Iowa and New Hampshire don’t actually tell us anything.
The question is whether we learned anything at all from these first two states. For instance, we now know that Pete Buttigieg does far better with white suburban Democratic voters than the pollsters were expecting. Does this mean the pollsters have also been under-sampling Pete’s support when it comes to nonwhite voters? We’ll soon find out. Until we see the results from these next two states, we really don’t know anything on this front.
The fate of Bernie Sanders is even trickier to decipher. We all knew he’d do well in Iowa and New Hampshire, as he tends to do best in nearly all-white states. But he came in a few points below his Iowa poll numbers, and he came in several points below his New Hampshire poll numbers, suggesting that pollsters may be over-sampling him when it comes to white voters. But again, we have no idea if this trend will translate to the more diverse states.
So even though we’ve seen some surprising results (and some not so surprising results) in Iowa and New Hampshire, we still don’t know much. Trying to use these results to predict who will do well in the diverse states is like trying to use the pole vaulting results to determine how these same athletes will perform in the ice skating contest. Three weeks from now, the top five candidates could end up being in completely reverse order. Maybe next time we should just admit that Iowa and New Hampshire aren’t going to tell us anything before we spend all this time and effort pretending they’re going to determine the nominee.
Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support our 2024 efforts by donating now or sign up for our free mailing list.


palmerreport--2020-02-12--Nancy Pelosi just pounced on Donald Trump’s Roger Stone mistake

When Donald Trump had Bill Barr corruptly and blatantly meddle in the Roger Stone prison sentence guidelines yesterday , Palmer Report explained why it was a huge mistake on Trump ’ s part .
Judge Jackson is still going to give Stone whatever sentence she was always planning on giving him .
And Trump just handed the Democrats an opening for using this new scandal to their 2020 advantage .
It turns out the Democrats are already doing just that .
Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi posted this tweet : “ By tweet Donald Trump engaged in political interference @ @ @ @ @ @ @ It is outrageous that DOJ has deeply damaged the rule of law by withdrawing its recommendation .
Stepping down of prosecutors should be commended & actions of DOJ should be investigated.
” There are two key takeaways here .
First , by default Pelosi is in charge of what the House investigates .
So since Pelosi wants a House investigation into the Stone scandal , it obviously means there will be one .
Second , Pelosi could be keeping her hands off it , and allowing her underlings like Adam Schiff and Jerry @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Instead , Pelosi is making a point of being the one to publicly call for the investigation , meaning she wants to be seen as leading the way .
In other words , she sees this investigation as being not only the morally correct thing to do , but also as a political winner .
So now we ’ ll see precisely where this leads .
There will be televised hearings , subpoenas , you name it .
The federal prosecutors who quit the Stone case in protest will surely be called to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ they really want to testify , Trump can ’ t realistically stop them .
We ’ re going to see impeachment all over again , with a new scandal , whether it ’ s called “ impeachment ” this time or not – and it well could end up being yet another official impeachment .
This is just getting started .

Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support Palmer Report's 2024 efforts by donating now.
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When Donald Trump had Bill Barr corruptly and blatantly meddle in the Roger Stone prison sentence guidelines yesterday, Palmer Report explained why it was a huge mistake on Trump’s part. Judge Jackson is still going to give Stone whatever sentence she was always planning on giving him. And Trump just handed the Democrats an opening for using this new scandal to their 2020 advantage.
It turns out the Democrats are already doing just that. Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi posted this tweet: “By tweet Donald Trump engaged in political interference in the sentencing of Roger Stone. It is outrageous that DOJ has deeply damaged the rule of law by withdrawing its recommendation. Stepping down of prosecutors should be commended & actions of DOJ should be investigated.”
There are two key takeaways here. First, by default Pelosi is in charge of what the House investigates. So since Pelosi wants a House investigation into the Stone scandal, it obviously means there will be one. Second, Pelosi could be keeping her hands off it, and allowing her underlings like Adam Schiff and Jerry Nadler to publicly lead the charge. Instead, Pelosi is making a point of being the one to publicly call for the investigation, meaning she wants to be seen as leading the way. In other words, she sees this investigation as being not only the morally correct thing to do, but also as a political winner.
So now we’ll see precisely where this leads. There will be televised hearings, subpoenas, you name it. The federal prosecutors who quit the Stone case in protest will surely be called to publicly testify about it, and if they really want to testify, Trump can’t realistically stop them. We’re going to see impeachment all over again, with a new scandal, whether it’s called “impeachment” this time or not – and it well could end up being yet another official impeachment. This is just getting started.
Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support our 2024 efforts by donating now or sign up for our free mailing list.


palmerreport--2020-02-12--Palmer Report editorial note: It’s time to break this cycle

It happened yet again yesterday .
Donald Trump and his regime made a highly corrupt move that they didn ’ t think through , so it didn ’ t have the effect they were hoping , and it quickly blew up in their faces .
But if you were following these developments on TV yesterday , you heard a very different version of this .
What actually happened was that Donald Trump and Bill Barr forcibly changed Roger Stone ’ s prison sentence recommendation a day after it had already become public .
This was incredibly inept , as the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ without controversy would have been to change it before it became public .
But even that wouldn ’ t have helped them , because Judge Amy Berman Jackson is a reasonable straight shooter , and whatever sentence she ends up giving Stone is going to be the exact same sentence that she was planning to give Stone before these hijinks began .
So Trump and Barr gained literally nothing from these antics .
Instead , because they carried out their stupid plan in such inept fashion , this blew up into a major @ @ @ @ @ @ @ whole new campaign plank in the 2020 election .
Trump ’ s 2020 odds were already small , and now they ’ ve gotten even smaller .
But if you were watching cable news yesterday , what you heard was that Trump and Barr have found a way to destroy democracy , it ’ s all over , they ’ ve magically won , and we might as well not even bother trying to compete in 2020 .
If you ’ re able to look at this nonsense objectively , you can see @ @ @ @ @ @ @ doomsday hysteria aimed at scaring you into staying tuned in , because cable news channels are for-profit businesses that exist to score ratings .
But if you ’ re already indoctrinated by this doomsday crap , it starts to take on its own logic , simply because you keep hearing it every day from talking heads who sound really earnest while they ’ re pushing this doomsday hysteria on you .
Some of you who are addicted to the MSNBC/CNN histrionics then come to Palmer Report for a different take .
You ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ based on facts , logic , and evidence .
My analysis is frankly pretty cynical ; things have been bad for three years , and I never pretend they ’ re better than they are .
It ’ s just that my analysis pokes holes in the cable news doomsday hysteria , so some of you end up thinking of my analysis as being “ optimistic ” in comparison .
This is the troubling part .
There ’ s nothing optimistic about my analysis .
It ’ s just that if all the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fire , then I ’ ll tell you that ten things are on fire .
I won ’ t pretend that fifty things are on fire , just to try to keep you amped up and tuned in .
It worries me a bit when I see anyone referring to my analysis as being “ optimistic , ” or when people tell me that my analysis cheers them up , or gives them hope .
I don ’ t have a hopeful outlook in general .
I ’ m just not pretending things @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I fear that some of you are being needlessly and inaccurately driven to the brink by the doomsday hysteria you hear on your television all day .
What you choose to watch on TV is up to you , of course .
But if you are a cable news watcher , I would urge you to keep in mind that TV channels are multimillion dollar corporations that literally exist to turn a profit , and that everything they do is aimed at finding a way to keep you tuned in .
The best @ @ @ @ @ @ @ without resorting to using doomsday hysteria .
But most of them are just there to convince you the sky is falling , so you won ’ t go watch football .
If my analysis ever starts to sound “ optimistic ” to you , it may be time to reevaluate what you ’ re comparing it to .

Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support Palmer Report's 2024 efforts by donating now.
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It happened yet again yesterday. Donald Trump and his regime made a highly corrupt move that they didn’t think through, so it didn’t have the effect they were hoping, and it quickly blew up in their faces. But if you were following these developments on TV yesterday, you heard a very different version of this.
What actually happened was that Donald Trump and Bill Barr forcibly changed Roger Stone’s prison sentence recommendation a day after it had already become public. This was incredibly inept, as the only way to have pulled this off without controversy would have been to change it before it became public. But even that wouldn’t have helped them, because Judge Amy Berman Jackson is a reasonable straight shooter, and whatever sentence she ends up giving Stone is going to be the exact same sentence that she was planning to give Stone before these hijinks began.
So Trump and Barr gained literally nothing from these antics. Instead, because they carried out their stupid plan in such inept fashion, this blew up into a major scandal that has handed the Democrats a whole new campaign plank in the 2020 election. Trump’s 2020 odds were already small, and now they’ve gotten even smaller.
But if you were watching cable news yesterday, what you heard was that Trump and Barr have found a way to destroy democracy, it’s all over, they’ve magically won, and we might as well not even bother trying to compete in 2020. If you’re able to look at this nonsense objectively, you can see that it’s nothing more than doomsday hysteria aimed at scaring you into staying tuned in, because cable news channels are for-profit businesses that exist to score ratings. But if you’re already indoctrinated by this doomsday crap, it starts to take on its own logic, simply because you keep hearing it every day from talking heads who sound really earnest while they’re pushing this doomsday hysteria on you.
Some of you who are addicted to the MSNBC/CNN histrionics then come to Palmer Report for a different take. You’ll read my analysis, which is based on facts, logic, and evidence. My analysis is frankly pretty cynical; things have been bad for three years, and I never pretend they’re better than they are. It’s just that my analysis pokes holes in the cable news doomsday hysteria, so some of you end up thinking of my analysis as being “optimistic” in comparison.
This is the troubling part. There’s nothing optimistic about my analysis. It’s just that if all the available evidence says ten things are on fire, then I’ll tell you that ten things are on fire. I won’t pretend that fifty things are on fire, just to try to keep you amped up and tuned in. It worries me a bit when I see anyone referring to my analysis as being “optimistic,” or when people tell me that my analysis cheers them up, or gives them hope. I don’t have a hopeful outlook in general. I’m just not pretending things are even worse than they are.
I fear that some of you are being needlessly and inaccurately driven to the brink by the doomsday hysteria you hear on your television all day. What you choose to watch on TV is up to you, of course. But if you are a cable news watcher, I would urge you to keep in mind that TV channels are multimillion dollar corporations that literally exist to turn a profit, and that everything they do is aimed at finding a way to keep you tuned in. The best of the TV pundits can do that without resorting to using doomsday hysteria. But most of them are just there to convince you the sky is falling, so you won’t go watch football. If my analysis ever starts to sound “optimistic” to you, it may be time to reevaluate what you’re comparing it to.
Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support our 2024 efforts by donating now or sign up for our free mailing list.


palmerreport--2020-02-13--Susan Collins hits the panic button

Susan Collins hits the panic button

Susan Collins was not the only Republican senator to offer a pathetic explanation for acquitting Donald Trump .
But she took things a bizarre step further by insisting early last week that Trump ’ s impeachment without an acquittal would prove to be an effective deterrent .
The day before she cast her vote , Collins told CBS News ’ Norah O ’ Donnell , “ I believe that the President has learned from this case ” and that impeachment is “ a pretty big lesson.
” She then insisted that Trump “ will be much more cautious in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ learned a lesson from his impeachment experience is ludicrous because self-reflection and self-improvement have never been part of Trump ’ s programming .
Collins tried to backpedal her comments a day later , telling Fox News ’ Martha MacCallum last Wednesday , “ It ’ s more aspirational on my part .
It ’ s more that I hope that he ’ s listened to the many voices in the Senate who have pointed out that the call was very problematic.
” The problem is , Collins already insisted that Trump “ will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ vote .
If Collins meant that she only hoped he would change , then that whole rationale falls apart .
Now that a week has passed and Trump has proven himself to be the same petty and vindictive oaf that he was before the vote , Collins has moved on to gaslighting .
This morning , CNN ’ s Manu Raju asked Collins what lessons Trump learned from impeachment .
Collins refused to answer three times , then shut him out of her office .
Hours later , Annie Clark , Collins ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s be clear – @ SenatorCollins ’ decision on impeachment had nothing to do with predictions about President Trump ’ s future behavior ” and it “ had nothing to do with hoping the President would learn a lesson.
” NBC News ’ Peter Alexander then tried a different tactic , presenting the question directly to Trump this afternoon .
Unlike Collins , Trump at least answered the question : “ Uh , that the Democrats are crooked , they ’ ve got a lot of crooked things going .
That they @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ t have brought impeachment .
And that my poll numbers are 10 points higher because of fake news like NBC , which reports the news very inaccurately — probably more inaccurately than CNN , if that ’ s possible.
” Last year , House Speaker Nancy Pelosi famously said that Trump was “ self-impeaching , ” and sure enough he got himself impeached .
Now , it is clear that Trump is self-destructing and taking his sycophantic Republican Party down with him .
Trump may appear to be relishing his newfound “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ doing is increasing the size and hue of the blue wave that needs to wash them all away in November .

Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support Palmer Report's 2024 efforts by donating now.
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Susan Collins was not the only Republican senator to offer a pathetic explanation for acquitting Donald Trump. But she took things a bizarre step further by insisting early last week that Trump’s impeachment without an acquittal would prove to be an effective deterrent. The day before she cast her vote, Collins told CBS News’ Norah O’Donnell, “I believe that the President has learned from this case” and that impeachment is “a pretty big lesson.” She then insisted that Trump “will be much more cautious in the future.”
The notion that Trump has learned a lesson from his impeachment experience is ludicrous because self-reflection and self-improvement have never been part of Trump’s programming. Collins tried to backpedal her comments a day later, telling Fox News’ Martha MacCallum last Wednesday, “It’s more aspirational on my part. It’s more that I hope that he’s listened to the many voices in the Senate who have pointed out that the call was very problematic.” The problem is, Collins already insisted that Trump “will” change as part of justifying her vote. If Collins meant that she only hoped he would change, then that whole rationale falls apart.
Now that a week has passed and Trump has proven himself to be the same petty and vindictive oaf that he was before the vote, Collins has moved on to gaslighting. This morning, CNN’s Manu Raju asked Collins what lessons Trump learned from impeachment. Collins refused to answer three times, then shut him out of her office. Hours later, Annie Clark, Collins’ Communications Director, tweeted, “Let’s be clear –
@SenatorCollins’ decision on impeachment had nothing to do with predictions about President Trump’s future behavior” and it “had nothing to do with hoping the President would learn a lesson.”
NBC News’ Peter Alexander then tried a different tactic, presenting the question directly to Trump this afternoon. Unlike Collins, Trump at least answered the question: “Uh, that the Democrats are crooked, they’ve got a lot of crooked things going. That they’re vicious. That they shouldn’t have brought impeachment. And that my poll numbers are 10 points higher because of fake news like NBC, which reports the news very inaccurately — probably more inaccurately than CNN, if that’s possible.”
Last year, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi famously said that Trump was “self-impeaching,” and sure enough he got himself impeached. Now, it is clear that Trump is self-destructing and taking his sycophantic Republican Party down with him. Trump may appear to be relishing his newfound “exoneration,” but all he is doing is increasing the size and hue of the blue wave that needs to wash them all away in November.
Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support our 2024 efforts by donating now or sign up for our free mailing list.


palmerreport--2020-02-13--Donald Trump and Bill Barr are trying to con each other

Bill Barr comes into office , immediately commits felony obstruction of justice in the Mueller probe , gets caught .
Now he needs Donald Trump to pardon him .
So he ’ s since been trying to earn a pardon by doing things like meddling in the Roger Stone case .
But Trump knows this , so he keeps demanding that Barr commit even more crimes at his behest .
Barr keeps digging himself an even bigger hole , and needs the pardon even more .
Of course Barr knows he can ’ t actually get Stone ’ s sentence @ @ @ @ @ @ @ just that – recommendations .
The judge is still going to give Stone whatever sentence she was always planning on giving him .
Barr is counting on the judge having always planned to give Stone less than 7-9 years , so Barr can falsely take credit for the ( imaginary ) reduction .
Barr is counting on Trump being clueless enough to fall for this ruse .
Then Trump thinks Barr scored a victory for him .
Of course none of these facts fit with the prevailing narrative that Bill Barr is an @ @ @ @ @ @ @ wand and always gets what he wants .
The danger of getting your political analysis from TV is you end up believing silly simplistic false narratives like this .
In reality , after his initial victory over Mueller , Bill Barr has struck out with most of what he ’ s tried .
The DOJ Inspector General report .
The fake McCabe indictment .
Trump is a rube but even he must eventually figure out each of these Barr schemes has been a failure .
So Barr just keeps trying to find a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on his way out the door .
So you ’ ve got Barr trying to con Trump into believing that Barr ’ s lame and ineffective antics are helping .
And you ’ ve got Trump playing Barr , in terms of forcing Barr to commit more and more crimes in endless pursuit of that pardon he needs .
This is all incredibly ugly for America .
But we ’ re not watching two criminal masterminds here .
We ’ re watching two bumbling crooks trying to BS each other , as they @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to go to prison after the election .
These two clowns deserve each other .

Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support Palmer Report's 2024 efforts by donating now.
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Bill Barr comes into office, immediately commits felony obstruction of justice in the Mueller probe, gets caught. Now he needs Donald Trump to pardon him. So he’s since been trying to earn a pardon by doing things like meddling in the Roger Stone case. But Trump knows this, so he keeps demanding that Barr commit even more crimes at his behest. Barr keeps digging himself an even bigger hole, and needs the pardon even more.
Of course Barr knows he can’t actually get Stone’s sentence reduced. Sentencing “recommendations” are just that – recommendations. The judge is still going to give Stone whatever sentence she was always planning on giving him. Barr is counting on the judge having always planned to give Stone less than 7-9 years, so Barr can falsely take credit for the (imaginary) reduction. Barr is counting on Trump being clueless enough to fall for this ruse. Then Trump thinks Barr scored a victory for him.
Of course none of these facts fit with the prevailing narrative that Bill Barr is an evil wizard who just waves a magic wand and always gets what he wants. The danger of getting your political analysis from TV is you end up believing silly simplistic false narratives like this. In reality, after his initial victory over Mueller, Bill Barr has struck out with most of what he’s tried. The DOJ Inspector General report. The fake McCabe indictment. Trump is a rube but even he must eventually figure out each of these Barr schemes has been a failure. So Barr just keeps trying to find a way to convince Trump to pardon him on his way out the door.
So you’ve got Barr trying to con Trump into believing that Barr’s lame and ineffective antics are helping. And you’ve got Trump playing Barr, in terms of forcing Barr to commit more and more crimes in endless pursuit of that pardon he needs. This is all incredibly ugly for America. But we’re not watching two criminal masterminds here. We’re watching two bumbling crooks trying to BS each other, as they each try to figure out how not to go to prison after the election. These two clowns deserve each other.
Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support our 2024 efforts by donating now or sign up for our free mailing list.


palmerreport--2020-02-13--Does this idiot have an off switch?

Does this idiot have an off switch?

“ Donald Trump may be a loudmouth and a bigot , but at least he gets the job done – he cares about ordinary folks like you and me.
” This is probably one of the most common arguments you hear from a typical Trump supporter who at least knows enough to not discuss the nuances of any political issue .
While we know that Trump and the GOP leaders who enable him are objectively terrible for America by any measure – there ’ s one simple statistic that sums up his catastrophic presidency better than any single argument .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ Archive , Donald Trump has insulted Democrats 100 times more than he ’ s promoted social programs that help Americans .
That may sound like an exaggeration , but it ’ s not .
Trump has tweeted ( and retweeted ) the word “ Democrats ” a total of 1,317 times since he was inaugurated .
The words Medicare , Medicaid , and Social Security were tweeted or retweeted just 13 times .
He ’ s spent more time on attacking Nancy Pelosi alone than he has on mentioning these programs , which @ @ @ @ @ @ @ budget proposal calls for significant cuts to all three .
Despite his repeated campaign promises to protect social security in 2016 , Trump and the Republicans have made it clear they ’ re going to try and privatize it once and for all should they prevail in November .
They ’ re also planning to do away with pre-existing conditions despite Trump ’ s lying that he ’ ll protect them .
You may not always read Trump ’ s tweets – and it ’ s far from something we ’ d recommend @ @ @ @ @ @ @ clearly who he is : a vindictive and lazy president who cares more about attacking the people he thinks are his enemies than he does about fulfilling his campaign promises or helping everyday Americans .
An analysis of these numbers shows he couldn ’ t possibly care less about ordinary folks like you and me .

Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support Palmer Report's 2024 efforts by donating now.
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“Donald Trump may be a loudmouth and a bigot, but at least he gets the job done – he cares about ordinary folks like you and me.” This is probably one of the most common arguments you hear from a typical Trump supporter who at least knows enough to not discuss the nuances of any political issue. While we know that Trump and the GOP leaders who enable him are objectively terrible for America by any measure – there’s one simple statistic that sums up his catastrophic presidency better than any single argument.
According to data from the Trump Twitter Archive, Donald Trump has insulted Democrats 100 times more than he’s promoted social programs that help Americans. That may sound like an exaggeration, but it’s not. Trump has tweeted (and retweeted) the word “Democrats” a total of 1,317 times since he was inaugurated.
The words Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security were tweeted or retweeted just 13 times. He’s spent more time on attacking Nancy Pelosi alone than he has on mentioning these programs, which comes as no surprise as his upcoming budget proposal calls for significant cuts to all three.
Despite his repeated campaign promises to protect social security in 2016, Trump and the Republicans have made it clear they’re going to try and privatize it once and for all should they prevail in November. They’re also planning to do away with pre-existing conditions despite Trump’s lying that he’ll protect them. You may not always read Trump’s tweets – and it’s far from something we’d recommend doing – but the numbers lay out clearly who he is: a vindictive and lazy president who cares more about attacking the people he thinks are his enemies than he does about fulfilling his campaign promises or helping everyday Americans. An analysis of these numbers shows he couldn’t possibly care less about ordinary folks like you and me.
Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support our 2024 efforts by donating now or sign up for our free mailing list.


palmerreport--2020-02-13--The real reason Bill Barr is testifying to the House Intelligence Committee

In response to a House demand that he explain his actions in the Roger Stone criminal case , Attorney General Bill Barr has agreed to testify to the House Judiciary Committee on March 31st .
This has set off a whole lot of confusion as to what ’ s really going on , a fair amount of skepticism from those who don ’ t understand the leverage involved , and some anger from those who simply don ’ t understand why they have to wait that long .
For starters , Bill Barr will almost certainly show up .
Why @ @ @ @ @ @ @ villain , not a mustache twirling cartoon character .
Barr knows that if he fails to show up , the House will impeach him .
Then Barr would have to spend months playing defense during his impeachment process , meaning it would be a major hindrance to his plans , even if the Senate does then acquit him .
So yes , Barr will show up , because he knows it ’ s the least bad outcome for himself .
Barr will probably lie during his testimony , but so be it .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ to fluster Barr , get him off script , and get him to either accidentally tell the damaging truth , or screw up and tell a lie that can be disproven .
If he ’ s caught in a lie , the Democrats can use that to persuade undecided voters that Trump and Barr are indeed running a criminal racket .
As for the timing , unless you think Nancy Pelosi and the House Democrats have suddenly dissolved into hapless idiots , it ’ s clear that March 31st is simply the soonest @ @ @ @ @ @ @ willing to show up under any circumstances .
No , impeaching Barr right this minute wouldn ’ t magically cause him to show up sooner .
No , sending the House Sergeant-at-Arms after Barr wouldn ’ t cause him to testify any sooner either ; that would just set off a prolonged court battle , ensuring that he never testifies .
If you understand that this is simply about how much leverage each side has , it ’ s pretty straightforward .
The House was able to use its leverage ( the threat @ @ @ @ @ @ @ agree to testify at all .
In turn , Barr was able to use his relative leverage ( the threat of taking it to court and never testifying ) to give himself a bit of time before he testifies .
This is simply what leveraged negotiations look like .
Neither side ever has a magic wand .
So yes , Bill Barr will show up , and yes , the House Democrats will have an opportunity to either catch him in a lie or fluster him into blurting out the damaging truth .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ side , if an incremental one .
But nearly all of the Resistance ’ s wins have been incremental .
It ’ s why so much of Trump ’ s corrupt agenda remains unfulfilled , and it ’ s why we ’ ve survived to keep fighting him .
The sky is not suddenly falling .
Donald Trump has been meddling in the criminal cases of his co-conspirators ( Flynn ) and vindictively firing people ( Comey ) since his first months on the job .
There is absolutely nothing new about what @ @ @ @ @ @ @ He ’ s not magically “ emboldened ” now .
It ’ s the same old Trump as ever .
He won ’ t have magically become emperor before Bill Barr testifies .
We ’ re still in the exact same incremental fight we ’ ve been in since day one – and no amount of sudden doomsday narratives will change that .

Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support Palmer Report's 2024 efforts by donating now.
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In response to a House demand that he explain his actions in the Roger Stone criminal case, Attorney General Bill Barr has agreed to testify to the House Judiciary Committee on March 31st. This has set off a whole lot of confusion as to what’s really going on, a fair amount of skepticism from those who don’t understand the leverage involved, and some anger from those who simply don’t understand why they have to wait that long.
For starters, Bill Barr will almost certainly show up. Why? Because he’s a calculated villain, not a mustache twirling cartoon character. Barr knows that if he fails to show up, the House will impeach him. Then Barr would have to spend months playing defense during his impeachment process, meaning it would be a major hindrance to his plans, even if the Senate does then acquit him. So yes, Barr will show up, because he knows it’s the least bad outcome for himself.
Barr will probably lie during his testimony, but so be it. The point of the hearing will be to fluster Barr, get him off script, and get him to either accidentally tell the damaging truth, or screw up and tell a lie that can be disproven. If he’s caught in a lie, the Democrats can use that to persuade undecided voters that Trump and Barr are indeed running a criminal racket.
As for the timing, unless you think Nancy Pelosi and the House Democrats have suddenly dissolved into hapless idiots, it’s clear that March 31st is simply the soonest that Bill Barr was going to be willing to show up under any circumstances. No, impeaching Barr right this minute wouldn’t magically cause him to show up sooner. No, sending the House Sergeant-at-Arms after Barr wouldn’t cause him to testify any sooner either; that would just set off a prolonged court battle, ensuring that he never testifies.
If you understand that this is simply about how much leverage each side has, it’s pretty straightforward. The House was able to use its leverage (the threat of impeachment) to get him to agree to testify at all. In turn, Barr was able to use his relative leverage (the threat of taking it to court and never testifying) to give himself a bit of time before he testifies. This is simply what leveraged negotiations look like. Neither side ever has a magic wand.
So yes, Bill Barr will show up, and yes, the House Democrats will have an opportunity to either catch him in a lie or fluster him into blurting out the damaging truth. It’s a win for our side, if an incremental one. But nearly all of the Resistance’s wins have been incremental. It’s why so much of Trump’s corrupt agenda remains unfulfilled, and it’s why we’ve survived to keep fighting him.
The sky is not suddenly falling. Donald Trump has been meddling in the criminal cases of his co-conspirators (Flynn) and vindictively firing people (Comey) since his first months on the job. There is absolutely nothing new about what we’re seeing right now. He’s not magically “emboldened” now. It’s the same old Trump as ever. He won’t have magically become emperor before Bill Barr testifies. We’re still in the exact same incremental fight we’ve been in since day one – and no amount of sudden doomsday narratives will change that.
Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support our 2024 efforts by donating now or sign up for our free mailing list.


palmerreport--2020-02-13--This is the same old thing all over again

We keep hearing how Donald Trump has been “ emboldened ” and “ unrestrained ” by his sham Senate acquittal , and that he ’ s now going to start doing Very Bad Things .
If anyone tries to point out that Trump has always been doing very bad things , with the same frequency and fervor and ineptitude that he ’ s displaying right now , that gets shouted down .
After all , the pundits and the fatalists have drilled the word “ emboldened ” into our heads .
The thing is , it ’ s just not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is illegally meddling in the Roger Stone criminal case , and yes , he ’ s vindictively firing people like Vindman and Sondland .
But one of Trump ’ s very first acts in office was to illegally ask James Comey to drop the Michael Flynn criminal probe .
Then when the probe continued , Trump vindictively fired Comey over it .
Along the way Trump has also meddled in the Paul Manafort case by reportedly offering him an non-existent pardon , and meddled in the Michael Cohen case by publicly making threats @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the way Trump has vindictively fired or forced out Andrew McCabe , Peter Strzok , Lisa Page , and too many others to list .
This isn ’ t anything new .
Literally nothing has changed since Donald Trump ’ s acquittal .
He ’ s spent his entire presidency limping along with a 40 % approval rating and weak odds of re-election , trying one dimwitted corrupt scheme after another , blowing it every time , trying again , and hoping that his next dimwitted scheme ends up helping him .
There @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s going on right now .
But it ’ s also nothing new .
Trump hasn ’ t become “ emboldened ” and he ’ s not any smarter at this villainy stuff than he was on day one .
He doesn ’ t suddenly have a magic wand .
Defeating him in November will simply require the same level of vigilance and fight that the Resistance has shown for the past three years – including when we overwhelmingly won the 2018 midterms .

Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support Palmer Report's 2024 efforts by donating now.
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We keep hearing how Donald Trump has been “emboldened” and “unrestrained” by his sham Senate acquittal, and that he’s now going to start doing Very Bad Things. If anyone tries to point out that Trump has always been doing very bad things, with the same frequency and fervor and ineptitude that he’s displaying right now, that gets shouted down. After all, the pundits and the fatalists have drilled the word “emboldened” into our heads.
The thing is, it’s just not the case. Yes, Donald Trump is illegally meddling in the Roger Stone criminal case, and yes, he’s vindictively firing people like Vindman and Sondland. But one of Trump’s very first acts in office was to illegally ask James Comey to drop the Michael Flynn criminal probe. Then when the probe continued, Trump vindictively fired Comey over it.
Along the way Trump has also meddled in the Paul Manafort case by reportedly offering him an non-existent pardon, and meddled in the Michael Cohen case by publicly making threats against Cohen’s family. Along the way Trump has vindictively fired or forced out Andrew McCabe, Peter Strzok, Lisa Page, and too many others to list.
This isn’t anything new. Literally nothing has changed since Donald Trump’s acquittal. He’s spent his entire presidency limping along with a 40% approval rating and weak odds of re-election, trying one dimwitted corrupt scheme after another, blowing it every time, trying again, and hoping that his next dimwitted scheme ends up helping him. There’s nothing good about what’s going on right now. But it’s also nothing new. Trump hasn’t become “emboldened” and he’s not any smarter at this villainy stuff than he was on day one. He doesn’t suddenly have a magic wand. Defeating him in November will simply require the same level of vigilance and fight that the Resistance has shown for the past three years – including when we overwhelmingly won the 2018 midterms.
Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support our 2024 efforts by donating now or sign up for our free mailing list.


palmerreport--2020-02-14--New York Attorney General Tish James just slam dunked Donald Trump

This morning Donald Trump flat out admitted on Twitter that he was meeting with New York Governor Andrew Cuomo today , in an attempt at forcing the state to back off its pursuit of him in his various criminal scandals .
As the day went on , multiple major media outlets reported that Trump offered to let New York remain in the Global Entry program if it dropped its legal cases against him .
Not only is this an outrage , it ’ s a felony .
It ’ s precisely the kind of quid pro quo that Donald Trump @ @ @ @ @ @ @ kind of corrupt behavior is nothing new from Trump , but he ’ s no longer trying to even give himself any cover or deniability .
Of course Trump is as stupid and clueless about these things as ever , because he was ringing the wrong bell .
New York Attorney General Tish James tweeted this in response : “ When you stop violating the rights and liberties of all New Yorkers , we will stand down .
Until then , we have a duty and responsibility to defend the Constitution and the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ file the lawsuits , not the Governor.
” That ’ s right , because Donald Trump doesn ’ t bother to do his homework , he doesn ’ t even know that the New York Attorney General is elected independently of the Governor , and that she ’ s not in any way under the Governor ’ s influence when it comes to these kinds of legal pursuits .
Donald Trump is also surely worried about the widely documented New York grand jury that ’ s spent the past several months targeting Donald @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
This grand jury has subpoenaed Trump ’ s financial records and is a confirmed plaintiff in the court battles over those records .
Trump will be indicted in New York at some point , and if he loses in November , he will be arrested and placed on criminal trial .
No wonder he ’ s panicked about what the state is doing to him .

Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support Palmer Report's 2024 efforts by donating now.
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This morning Donald Trump flat out admitted on Twitter that he was meeting with New York Governor Andrew Cuomo today, in an attempt at forcing the state to back off its pursuit of him in his various criminal scandals. As the day went on, multiple major media outlets reported that Trump offered to let New York remain in the Global Entry program if it dropped its legal cases against him.
Not only is this an outrage, it’s a felony. It’s precisely the kind of quid pro quo that Donald Trump attempted in his Ukraine scandal. This kind of corrupt behavior is nothing new from Trump, but he’s no longer trying to even give himself any cover or deniability. Of course Trump is as stupid and clueless about these things as ever, because he was ringing the wrong bell.
New York Attorney General Tish James tweeted this in response: “When you stop violating the rights and liberties of all New Yorkers, we will stand down. Until then, we have a duty and responsibility to defend the Constitution and the rule of law. BTW, I file the lawsuits, not the Governor.” That’s right, because Donald Trump doesn’t bother to do his homework, he doesn’t even know that the New York Attorney General is elected independently of the Governor, and that she’s not in any way under the Governor’s influence when it comes to these kinds of legal pursuits.
Donald Trump is also surely worried about the widely documented New York grand jury that’s spent the past several months targeting Donald Trump for indictment on state level charges. This grand jury has subpoenaed Trump’s financial records and is a confirmed plaintiff in the court battles over those records. Trump will be indicted in New York at some point, and if he loses in November, he will be arrested and placed on criminal trial. No wonder he’s panicked about what the state is doing to him.
Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support our 2024 efforts by donating now or sign up for our free mailing list.


palmerreport--2020-02-13--Bill Barr’s weird and wacky new interview just gave something away

Yesterday , Palmer Report spelled out how Donald Trump and Attorney General Bill Barr both appear to be trying to con each other .
Trump knows that Barr needs a pardon for his obstruction of justice felonies , and so Trump keeps making Barr do him corrupt favors .
But then Barr does things like trying to trick Trump into thinking he got Roger Stone ’ s sentence reduced , when all he did was reduce the recommendations closer to what the judge was likely to give Stone anyway .
Now Barr has done a new interview with ABC News @ @ @ @ @ @ @ actions in the Stone case , while also stressing that Trump ’ s tweets “ make it impossible for me to do my job.
” To be clear , there ’ s no reason to believe that Barr is actually selling Trump out by saying this .
Barr isn ’ t going to go cut a plea deal tomorrow or anything .
But Barr is giving away something important here .
First of all , Bill Barr is clearly concerned about the mess he ’ s in .
He ’ s being hauled @ @ @ @ @ @ @ about his actions in the Stone case , and if he doesn ’ t show up or doesn ’ t answer the questions satisfactorily , he ’ ll likely be impeached .
Even if he ’ s then acquitted , the impeachment process could tie Barr ’ s hands for months on end , and it could cause Trump to view Barr as a liability .
If Trump loses in November and Barr is indicted , Trump ’ s tweets will be used as evidence against Barr during his trial .
So it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ enough about all of this that he ’ s trying to seize control of the narrative .
Of course for all we know , Barr may have even told Trump that he ’ s willing to keep meddling in the Stone case , but only if Trump is okay with Barr insulating himself by going on TV and saying things like this .
But the key takeaway here is that Barr is worried about how badly this could go wrong for him .
It ’ s the latest reminder that Barr isn ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ wave a magic wand and do whatever he wants without consequences .
Barr is running scared , as he should be .

Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support Palmer Report's 2024 efforts by donating now.
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Yesterday, Palmer Report spelled out how Donald Trump and Attorney General Bill Barr both appear to be trying to con each other. Trump knows that Barr needs a pardon for his obstruction of justice felonies, and so Trump keeps making Barr do him corrupt favors. But then Barr does things like trying to trick Trump into thinking he got Roger Stone’s sentence reduced, when all he did was reduce the recommendations closer to what the judge was likely to give Stone anyway.
Now Barr has done a new interview with ABC News. He’s defending his own actions in the Stone case, while also stressing that Trump’s tweets “make it impossible for me to do my job.” To be clear, there’s no reason to believe that Barr is actually selling Trump out by saying this. Barr isn’t going to go cut a plea deal tomorrow or anything. But Barr is giving away something important here.
First of all, Bill Barr is clearly concerned about the mess he’s in. He’s being hauled before the House Judiciary Committee to testify about his actions in the Stone case, and if he doesn’t show up or doesn’t answer the questions satisfactorily, he’ll likely be impeached. Even if he’s then acquitted, the impeachment process could tie Barr’s hands for months on end, and it could cause Trump to view Barr as a liability. If Trump loses in November and Barr is indicted, Trump’s tweets will be used as evidence against Barr during his trial.
So it’s notable that Barr is concerned enough about all of this that he’s trying to seize control of the narrative. Of course for all we know, Barr may have even told Trump that he’s willing to keep meddling in the Stone case, but only if Trump is okay with Barr insulating himself by going on TV and saying things like this. But the key takeaway here is that Barr is worried about how badly this could go wrong for him. It’s the latest reminder that Barr isn’t some evil wizard who can simply wave a magic wand and do whatever he wants without consequences. Barr is running scared, as he should be.
Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support our 2024 efforts by donating now or sign up for our free mailing list.


palmerreport--2020-02-13--Why Donald Trump is really re-hiring Sean Spicer and Reince Priebus

Earlier today the news broke that Donald Trump is re-hiring Hope Hicks for a White House position .
This is surreal , but not necessarily surprising .
Now it turns out she isn ’ t the only one , because Trump is also re-hiring Sean Spicer and Reince Priebus for White House gigs .
Wait a minute here , this makes no sense on the surface , so let ’ s take a look at the one underlying thing that ’ s probably driving this .
We all know why Donald Trump is bringing back Hope Hicks .
By all @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
She ’ s making a mistake by coming back , but it ’ s a sensible move for him .
Most of us would re-hire a productive former employee , if we never wanted them to leave in the first place .
But why Spicer and Priebus ?
Trump clearly hated working with those guys .
If you take a look at the White House press release – released two days ago but dug up today by Salon and Raw Story and others – you ’ ll see that Spicer and Priebus @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ d call “ real ” jobs .
They ’ ve each been named to the “ President ’ s Commission on White House Fellowships ” – which is the kind of nonsensical position that you give to someone when you want to formally bring someone back into the fold , but you don ’ t want to actually work with them , or have them do anything for you .
In other words , Donald Trump doesn ’ t want Reince Priebus and Sean Spicer around .
He ’ s simply decided @ @ @ @ @ @ @ right now .
In other words he needs them to remain loyal because he expects things to get ugly , or he needs to tap into whatever remaining influence they still have from their time in charge of the RNC , or some other transactional reason .
We don ’ t yet know what the specifics are , but it ’ ll likely become apparent soon enough .

Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support Palmer Report's 2024 efforts by donating now.
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Earlier today the news broke that Donald Trump is re-hiring Hope Hicks for a White House position. This is surreal, but not necessarily surprising. Now it turns out she isn’t the only one, because Trump is also re-hiring Sean Spicer and Reince Priebus for White House gigs. Wait a minute here, this makes no sense on the surface, so let’s take a look at the one underlying thing that’s probably driving this.
We all know why Donald Trump is bringing back Hope Hicks. By all accounts they had a positive working relationship. She’s making a mistake by coming back, but it’s a sensible move for him. Most of us would re-hire a productive former employee, if we never wanted them to leave in the first place. But why Spicer and Priebus? Trump clearly hated working with those guys.
If you take a look at the White House press release – released two days ago but dug up today by Salon and Raw Story and others – you’ll see that Spicer and Priebus aren’t being given what you’d call “real” jobs. They’ve each been named to the “President’s Commission on White House Fellowships” – which is the kind of nonsensical position that you give to someone when you want to formally bring someone back into the fold, but you don’t want to actually work with them, or have them do anything for you.
In other words, Donald Trump doesn’t want Reince Priebus and Sean Spicer around. He’s simply decided that he needs them in the fold right now. In other words he needs them to remain loyal because he expects things to get ugly, or he needs to tap into whatever remaining influence they still have from their time in charge of the RNC, or some other transactional reason. We don’t yet know what the specifics are, but it’ll likely become apparent soon enough.
Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support our 2024 efforts by donating now or sign up for our free mailing list.


palmerreport--2020-02-13--Donald Trump can’t simply cheat his way to victory this time – unless you let him

By now we ’ re all too painfully familiar with the combination of cheats , crimes , and antics that put Donald Trump into office .
There was the GOP voter suppression .
There was the Electoral College wonkiness .
There was the year and a half of systematic collusion with the Kremlin .
But you know what ?
None of that actually worked .
Trump and his Republican Party spent the entire election cheating in every way they could , and yet eleven days before the election , he was still very much going to lose .
At that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ points in the national polling averages .
In hindsight we know that the polling averages were off by two points all along in Hillary ’ s favor , so she would have won by six points .
That would have been enough to overcome all the cheating , and the Electoral College .
It was only Comey ’ s last minute letter , combined with all of the above things , that ultimately put him in office .
That letter caused Hillary ’ s lead in the national polling averages to drop to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ been enough to put her in office ) .
She ended up winning the popular vote by two points , which turned out not to be enough .
But let ’ s examine the lesson here .
We can see that it takes a major , varied , and sustained cheating effort just to move the needle by even a small amount .
All of Trump ’ s cheating in 2016 , and he was still on track to lose the vote by six points , and thus lose the election .
Putin @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Putin ’ s efforts would have failed , if not for Comey ’ s brain fart .
So how do we overcome this ?
Voter turnout .
It ’ s easy to see that sufficient turnout is enough to overcome any cheating effort , no matter how strident .
Sufficient voter turnout is enough to overcome the polls being wrong .
Sufficient voter turnout is enough to overcome the Electoral College .
And sufficient voter turnout is enough to overcome any last minute surprises .
The only way Trump can cheat his way @ @ @ @ @ @ @ luck his way into it , is if we let him by not getting out the vote in high enough numbers .
There are still five or six different people who could conceivably be the 2020 Democratic nominee .
I happen to think that some of them are infinitely better than others .
So do you .
It ’ s fine to share your views about why you think this person should be the nominee , or why that person shouldn ’ t be the nominee .
But once we have a nominee @ @ @ @ @ @ @ behind that nominee and drive turnout through the roof .
At this point a bag of fire ants would make a far better president than Donald Trump , and we all know it .

Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support Palmer Report's 2024 efforts by donating now.
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By now we’re all too painfully familiar with the combination of cheats, crimes, and antics that put Donald Trump into office. There was the GOP voter suppression. There was the Electoral College wonkiness. There was the year and a half of systematic collusion with the Kremlin. But you know what? None of that actually worked.
Trump and his Republican Party spent the entire election cheating in every way they could, and yet eleven days before the election, he was still very much going to lose. At that point Hillary Clinton was ahead by eight points in the national polling averages. In hindsight we know that the polling averages were off by two points all along in Hillary’s favor, so she would have won by six points. That would have been enough to overcome all the cheating, and the Electoral College.
It was only Comey’s last minute letter, combined with all of the above things, that ultimately put him in office. That letter caused Hillary’s lead in the national polling averages to drop to four points (which still would have been enough to put her in office). She ended up winning the popular vote by two points, which turned out not to be enough.
But let’s examine the lesson here. We can see that it takes a major, varied, and sustained cheating effort just to move the needle by even a small amount. All of Trump’s cheating in 2016, and he was still on track to lose the vote by six points, and thus lose the election. Putin didn’t magically install Trump; Putin’s efforts would have failed, if not for Comey’s brain fart. So how do we overcome this? Voter turnout.
It’s easy to see that sufficient turnout is enough to overcome any cheating effort, no matter how strident. Sufficient voter turnout is enough to overcome the polls being wrong. Sufficient voter turnout is enough to overcome the Electoral College. And sufficient voter turnout is enough to overcome any last minute surprises. The only way Trump can cheat his way into a second term, or even luck his way into it, is if we let him by not getting out the vote in high enough numbers.
There are still five or six different people who could conceivably be the 2020 Democratic nominee. I happen to think that some of them are infinitely better than others. So do you. It’s fine to share your views about why you think this person should be the nominee, or why that person shouldn’t be the nominee. But once we have a nominee, we’d all better get behind that nominee and drive turnout through the roof. At this point a bag of fire ants would make a far better president than Donald Trump, and we all know it.
Important note: Palmer Report has led the way in political analysis. Now we're gearing up to cover the 2024 election, up and down the ballot. Help support our 2024 efforts by donating now or sign up for our free mailing list.