wattsupwiththat--2020-11-13--Shorefast ice formation and the fall feeding season for polar bear

What may seem like a silly question is actually fundamental to polar bear survival : in the fall , why do Western Hudson Bay bears correctly expect to find seals in the new ice that forms offshore ?
Why are seals attracted to that new ice – called ‘ shorefast ice ’ or ‘ fast ice ’ – when they would clearly be safer out in the open water where there is no ice and no bears ?
As the picture below attests , polar bears can and do kill ringed seals in the new ice that forms off the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it is but a narrow strip of thin ice – and so close to shore their successes can be caught on camera .
A different bear was also filmed killing another seal on 31 October .
And these are only the kills we know about along a very short stretch of coast – the killing is almost certainly going on up and down the entire coast , into James Bay ( see below ) , where there is just as much ice but no cameras .
As far as I am aware , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on in newly-formed shorefast ice everywhere across the Arctic in early fall , not just in Hudson Bay .
Although the timing varies , virtually everywhere in the peripheral seas of the Arctic Ocean ( Barents , Kara , Laptev , Chukchi , Beaufort , as well as Baffin Bay and Davis Strait ) , shorefast ice forms before the mobile ice pack expands to meet the ice developing from shore .
This shorefast ice formation in fall provides a predictable but short-lived source of prey for polar bears as they strive to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the summer .
Not a single paper on polar bear or ringed seal ecology that I ’ ve found states clearly why seals are so attracted to newly-formed ice in the fall that they make themselves easy prey for polar bears .
Ian Stirling , for example , has discussed the enhanced biological productivity of ice-edge habitats of recurring polynyas and recurring shore leads ( or flaw edge polynyas ) , but does not specifically mention why newly-formed ice edges in fall are such a productive seal habitat ( Stirling and Oritsland 1995:2596 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Several authors ( e.g .
Castro de la Guardia et al .
2017 ; Obbard et al .
2016:29 ) mention that polar bears move onto thin shorefast ice in the fall almost as soon as it forms and indicate there is evidence they kill seals in this habitat .
But they do not explain any further .
Seal biologist don ’ t do much better .
Magaly Chambellant ( 2010:148 ) states that adult ringed seals move inshore as ice forms in the fall in order to set up breeding territories @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the authors Chamballant cites suggests this summarization may not be strictly true or at least , not entirely true for the entire early freeze-up period .
For example , McLaren ( 1958:72 ) commented on the movement of ringed seals at freeze-up along the coast of Baffin Bay and indicated that Inuit informants said the draw of new ice for young seals is initially as a haulout platform , but that they are then driven out of the expanding habitat by adults preparing to set up winter ( breeding ) territories [ my @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 1987:8-15 ) , said this [ my bold ] : “ In the autumn , usually 3 weeks to a month prior to freeze-up , there appears to be an influx of ringed seals into the Prince Albert Sound area .
… Seals during this period are usually found in groups , sometimes numbering upwards of 30 individuals , and are very old consisting mostly of adults with few adolescents and rarely any young-of-the-year .
This is the only time of year when ringed seals are seen together in the water .
They @ @ @ @ @ @ @ arctic cod which are found in the area at this time in most years .
… From observations in the late autumn just before or during freeze up large groups of adult ringed seals are seen to move into these areas which will later become breeding habitat .
The age structure of these groups of adult males and females collected during October 1971 and 1973 is very similar to the age of seals taken in the breeding habitat of the same area the following spring.
” In other words , it appears that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ perhaps all ) there is an initial movement of fish to the near shore area just prior to and during the early stages of freeze-up which attracts seals of all ages ( but perhaps few young-of-the-year ) , some of whom may haul out on the new ice and make themselves available as polar bear prey .
As this new ice thickens and expands away from shore , adult seals establishing breeding territories in advance of the winter season come to dominate the shorefast ice habitat but predator-savvy adults are much harder for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Adult male ringed seals are extremely territorial in this shorefast ice habitat , a topic I examined in depth in a recent scientific paper ( Crockford and Frederick 2011 ) , but whether this territorial focus makes these seals more or less vigilant to the risk of predation by polar bears is not clear .
Overall , it seems no one has examined in detail what is going on in the newly-formed shorefast ice .
For good reason , I have to admit : new sea ice tends to be unstable and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ too thin for landing a helicopter .
Inevitably , shore-based cameras like those installed in Wakusp National Park or photos taken by dedicated shore-bound observers are the only record we have of the hunting and killing of seals by polar bears and this evidence ceases to be collected when the bears move beyond the range of these cameras .
WHAT ATTRACTS SEALS TO NEW SHOREFAST ICE ?
Even the folks studying physical processes do not explicitly state ( anywhere that I could find ) precisely what happens to attract seals to newly formed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ descriptions of the processes , it seems the cooling process necessary for sea ice formation along the shore of Arctic regions , including the west coast of Hudson Bay , initially creates an underwater current that brings nutrients from deeper , saltier water up to the surface ( ‘ upwelling ’ ) .
The process of early ice formation also involves vertical movement of ice crystals in the water column , enhancing this upwelling ( Buckley et al .
1979 ) .
This transient fall coastal upwelling brings nutrients near the surface for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
A similar process goes on in Arctic polynyas – areas of open water surrounded by sea ice that attract polar bears and a variety of other wildlife during late winter and early spring ( Dunbar 1981 ; Stirling 1997 ; Stirling et al .
1981 ; Tremblay et al .
2012 ) .
As fish congregate briefly to feed near the surface close to shore , ringed seals of all ages congregate as well – all along the edges and underneath the ice that begins to form .
When this new fast @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bear to stand upon ( about 30 cm thick ) – either through continued ice formation or because the ice has been buckled and deformed by winds and tides into thickened ridges – some seals may haul out to rest or come to the surface to breath and become prey for hungry bears .
This inevitable process of shorefast ice formation takes place every fall across the Arctic and it ’ s why polar bears know they can hunt successfully out on the new fast ice after months without food over the summer @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the bears head out on the ice as soon as it ’ s physically possible for them to do so – they know they will find seals there .
I suggest , therefore , that fall is the second-most important feeding season after spring ( Stirling and Oritsland 1997 ) because the presence of seals is predictable and allows polar bears to regain some of the weight they have lost over the summer .
However , while the presence of seals in new fast ice in fall is as predictable as are newborn @ @ @ @ @ @ @ season is much shorter : the fall feeding window is weeks rather than months long .
And what comes after the fall feeding is winter : the most dangerous time of the year for polar bears because hunting opportunities are unpredictable ( i.e .
few and far between ) .
Starvation is the leading natural cause of death for polar bears and most bears that die of starvation do so during the depth of winter , without human witnesses .
The huge and predictable crop of newborn seals in the spring saves the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ just made it through the winter , fattens up all age classes enough to survive the summer ice-free fast and allows mature females to get fat enough to maintain a pregnancy later in the year .
And with this spring feeding , the lives of most polar bears are assured for another year .
VIDEO : Polar Bear Testing New Shorefast Ice off Wapusk National Park , Western Hudson Bay , November 5 , 2020 ( below ) : Virtually everywhere in the peripheral seas of the Arctic Ocean ( Barents , Kara @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as well as Baffin Bay and Davis Strait , shorefast ice thick enough to support a polar bear forms before the mobile ice pack in the central Arctic expands to the shores of the peripheral seas ( below ) .
For example , although most years the pack ice doesn ’ t move very far away from the Russian shore in summer , this year was different – leading our most socially-vocal polar bear ‘ expert ’ to express his worry for the fate of Russian bears .
Even without being able to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that shorefast ice development was providing critical habitat for seals and polar bears along the Russian coast this fall by late October ( below ) .
Shorefast ice development along the Laptev and Kara Seas at 27 October 2020 , NSIDC Masie .
By this time , there was plenty of ice at the edge of the Laptev Sea for polar bears that had spent the summer on shore to resume feeding , both along the mainland and on offshore islands – even though the Arctic pack ice was still a long distance @ @ @ @ @ @ @ shore-bound polar bears can use new shorefast ice as a successful hunting platform wherever it develops over shallow continental shelves in the Arctic , Derocher implies a few weeks later that Laptev Sea bears are not able to hunt until the pack ice returns , as it did in early November : Bottom line : Shorefast ice formation that leads to the predictable but short-lived presence of ringed seals explains why fall is the second-most important feeding period for polar bears throughout the Arctic .
Buckley , J.R. , Gammelsrod , T. , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ L.P. 1979 .
Upwelling : Oceanic structure at the Arctic ice pack in winter .
Science 203 ( 4376 ) :165-167 .
DOI : 10.1126/science.203.4376.165 Chambellant , M. 2010 .
Hudson Bay ringed seal : ecology in a warming climate .
In S.H .
Ferguson et al .
( eds . )
, A Little Less Arctic : Top Predators in the World ’ s Largest Northern Inland Sea , Hudson Bay , Springer Science+Business Media B.V. DOI 10.1007/978-90-481-9121-5_7 Crockford , S.J .
and Frederick , G. 2011 .
Neoglacial sea ice and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ seals .
pg .
65-91 In , T. Braje and R. Torrey , eds .
Human and Marine Ecosystems : Archaeology and Historical Ecology of Northeastern Pacific Seals , Sea Lions , and Sea Otters .
U. California Press , LA .
Dunbar , M.J. 1981 .
Physical causes and biological significance of polynyas and other open water in sea ice .
In : Polynyas in the Canadian Arctic , Stirling , I. and Cleator , H. ( eds ) , pg .
29-43 .
Canadian Wildlife Service , Occasional Paper No .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
1958 .
The biology of the ringed seal ( Phoca hispida Schreber ) in the Eastern Canadian Arctic .
Fisheries Research Board of Canada , Ottawa .
Bulletin 118 .
Pdf here .
Obbard , M.E.
, Cattet , M.R.I.
, Howe , E.J.
, Middel , K.R.
, Newton , E.J.
, Kolenosky , G.B.
, Abraham , K.F .
and Greenwood , C.J .
2016 .
Trends in body condition in polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ) from the Southern Hudson Bay subpopulation in relation to changes in sea ice @ @ @ @ @ @ @ DOI : 10.1139/AS-2015-0027 Smith , T.G .
1987 .
The ringed seal , Phoca hispida , of the Canadian western Arctic .
Canadian Bulletin of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 216 .
Stirling , I .
1997 .
The importance of polynyas , ice edges , and leads to marine mammals and birds .
Journal of Marine Systems 10 : 9-21 .
Stirling I , Jonkel C , Smith P , Robertson R , Cross D. 1977 .
The ecology of the polar bear ( Ursus maritimus ) along the western coast of Hudson @ @ @ @ @ @ @ No .
33. pdf here .
Stirling , I. and Øritsland , N. A .
1995 .
Relationships between estimates of ringed seal ( Phoca hispida ) and polar bear ( Ursus maritimus ) populations in the Canadian Arctic .
Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 52 : 2594 – 2612. http : //www.nrcresearchpress.com/doi/abs/10.1139/f95-849 # .VNep0y5v_gU Stirling , I , Cleator , H. and Smith , T.G .
1981 .
Marine mammals .
In : Polynyas in the Canadian Arctic , Stirling , I. and Cleator , H. ( eds ) , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Occasional Paper No .
45 .
Ottawa .
Excerpts of several papers here .
Tremblay , J.-E. , Robert , D. , Varela , D.E.
, Lovejoy , C. , Nelson , R.J. and Sastri , A.R .
2012 .
Current state and trends in Canadian Arctic marine ecosystems : 1 .
Primary production .
Climate Change 115:161-178 .
Open access .
https : //link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-012-0496-3

Reposted from Polar Bear Science
Posted on November 11, 2020 |
What may seem like a silly question is actually fundamental to polar bear survival: in the fall, why do Western Hudson Bay bears correctly expect to find seals in the new ice that forms offshore? Why are seals attracted to that new ice – called ‘shorefast ice’ or ‘fast ice’ – when they would clearly be safer out in the open water where there is no ice and no bears?
As the picture below attests, polar bears can and do kill ringed seals in the new ice that forms off the coast of Western Hudson Bay even when it is but a narrow strip of thin ice – and so close to shore their successes can be caught on camera.
Three adult male polar bears share a seal kill on the newly-formed ice off Wapusk National Park, Western Hudson Bay. 5 November 2020. Buggy cam, Explore.org
A different bear was also filmed killing another seal on 31 October. And these are only the kills we know about along a very short stretch of coast – the killing is almost certainly going on up and down the entire coast, into James Bay (see below), where there is just as much ice but no cameras.
As far as I am aware, this seal killing by polar bears goes on in newly-formed shorefast ice everywhere across the Arctic in early fall, not just in Hudson Bay. Although the timing varies, virtually everywhere in the peripheral seas of the Arctic Ocean (Barents, Kara, Laptev, Chukchi, Beaufort, as well as Baffin Bay and Davis Strait), shorefast ice forms before the mobile ice pack expands to meet the ice developing from shore.
This shorefast ice formation in fall provides a predictable but short-lived source of prey for polar bears as they strive to regain some of the weight lost over the summer.
SHOREFAST ICE ATTRACTS SEALS IN FALL
Not a single paper on polar bear or ringed seal ecology that I’ve found states clearly why seals are so attracted to newly-formed ice in the fall that they make themselves easy prey for polar bears.
Ian Stirling, for example, has discussed the enhanced biological productivity of ice-edge habitats of recurring polynyas and recurring shore leads (or flaw edge polynyas), but does not specifically mention why newly-formed ice edges in fall are such a productive seal habitat (Stirling and Oritsland 1995:2596; Stirling et al. 1977). Several authors (e.g. Castro de la Guardia et al. 2017; Obbard et al. 2016:29) mention that polar bears move onto thin shorefast ice in the fall almost as soon as it forms and indicate there is evidence they kill seals in this habitat. But they do not explain any further.
Seal biologist don’t do much better. Magaly Chambellant (2010:148) states that adult ringed seals move inshore as ice forms in the fall in order to set up breeding territories:
“When the ice starts to form in late fall, adults gather close to shore to establish territories (McLaren 1958; Smith 1987). During this period, juveniles are actively excluded from these habitats (McLaren 1958; Smith 1987; Holst et al. 1999; Krafft et al. 2007).”
But as I show below, the authors Chamballant cites suggests this summarization may not be strictly true or at least, not entirely true for the entire early freeze-up period. For example, McLaren (1958:72) commented on the movement of ringed seals at freeze-up along the coast of Baffin Bay and indicated that Inuit informants said the draw of new ice for young seals is initially as a haulout platform, but that they are then driven out of the expanding habitat by adults preparing to set up winter (breeding) territories [my bold]:
“According to the natives , the fall movement of young seals is analogous to the spring movement, where the desire to haul out on the fast ice seems to be the chief cause. As the nights lengthen and the days become cold, fewer seals are seen sunning on the ice. Most young seals move out with the progressing ice edge, leaving the adults in their winter residence under the fast ice.“
Similarly, Smith (1987:8-15), said this [my bold]:
“In the autumn, usually 3 weeks to a month prior to freeze-up, there appears to be an influx of ringed seals into the Prince Albert Sound area. … Seals during this period are usually found in groups, sometimes numbering upwards of 30 individuals, and are very old consisting mostly of adults with few adolescents and rarely any young-of-the-year. This is the only time of year when ringed seals are seen together in the water. They are feeding intensely on dense schools of arctic cod which are found in the area at this time in most years. … From observations in the late autumn just before or during freeze up large groups of adult ringed seals are seen to move into these areas which will later become breeding habitat. The age structure of these groups of adult males and females collected during October 1971 and 1973 is very similar to the age of seals taken in the breeding habitat of the same area the following spring.”
In other words, it appears that at least in some areas (and perhaps all) there is an initial movement of fish to the near shore area just prior to and during the early stages of freeze-up which attracts seals of all ages (but perhaps few young-of-the-year), some of whom may haul out on the new ice and make themselves available as polar bear prey.
As this new ice thickens and expands away from shore, adult seals establishing breeding territories in advance of the winter season come to dominate the shorefast ice habitat but predator-savvy adults are much harder for polar bears to catch than younger seals. Adult male ringed seals are extremely territorial in this shorefast ice habitat, a topic I examined in depth in a recent scientific paper (Crockford and Frederick 2011), but whether this territorial focus makes these seals more or less vigilant to the risk of predation by polar bears is not clear.
Overall, it seems no one has examined in detail what is going on in the newly-formed shorefast ice. For good reason, I have to admit: new sea ice tends to be unstable and unpredictable underfoot for safe human travel and too thin for landing a helicopter. Inevitably, shore-based cameras like those installed in Wakusp National Park or photos taken by dedicated shore-bound observers are the only record we have of the hunting and killing of seals by polar bears and this evidence ceases to be collected when the bears move beyond the range of these cameras.
Polar bears on a seal kill, 31 October 2020. Wakusp National Park, Explore.org
WHAT ATTRACTS SEALS TO NEW SHOREFAST ICE?
Even the folks studying physical processes do not explicitly state (anywhere that I could find) precisely what happens to attract seals to newly formed ice. However, based on the descriptions of the processes, it seems the cooling process necessary for sea ice formation along the shore of Arctic regions, including the west coast of Hudson Bay, initially creates an underwater current that brings nutrients from deeper, saltier water up to the surface (‘upwelling’). The process of early ice formation also involves vertical movement of ice crystals in the water column, enhancing this upwelling (Buckley et al. 1979). This transient fall coastal upwelling brings nutrients near the surface for single-cell organisms that are food for fish. A similar process goes on in Arctic polynyas – areas of open water surrounded by sea ice that attract polar bears and a variety of other wildlife during late winter and early spring (Dunbar 1981; Stirling 1997; Stirling et al. 1981; Tremblay et al. 2012).
As fish congregate briefly to feed near the surface close to shore, ringed seals of all ages congregate as well – all along the edges and underneath the ice that begins to form. When this new fast ice becomes thick enough for a polar bear to stand upon (about 30 cm thick) – either through continued ice formation or because the ice has been buckled and deformed by winds and tides into thickened ridges – some seals may haul out to rest or come to the surface to breath and become prey for hungry bears.
Polar bear mother and cub appear to be feeding on new shorefast ice off Wakusp National Park, Western Hudson Bay. 11 November 2020.
SEALS ARE A PREDICTABLE RESOURCE IN FALL
This inevitable process of shorefast ice formation takes place every fall across the Arctic and it’s why polar bears know they can hunt successfully out on the new fast ice after months without food over the summer. It’s almost certainly why the bears head out on the ice as soon as it’s physically possible for them to do so – they know they will find seals there.
I suggest, therefore, that fall is the second-most important feeding season after spring (Stirling and Oritsland 1997) because the presence of seals is predictable and allows polar bears to regain some of the weight they have lost over the summer. However, while the presence of seals in new fast ice in fall is as predictable as are newborn seals in spring, the fall feeding season is much shorter: the fall feeding window is weeks rather than months long.
And what comes after the fall feeding is winter: the most dangerous time of the year for polar bears because hunting opportunities are unpredictable (i.e. few and far between). Starvation is the leading natural cause of death for polar bears and most bears that die of starvation do so during the depth of winter, without human witnesses. The huge and predictable crop of newborn seals in the spring saves the lives of those bears that have only just made it through the winter, fattens up all age classes enough to survive the summer ice-free fast and allows mature females to get fat enough to maintain a pregnancy later in the year. And with this spring feeding, the lives of most polar bears are assured for another year.
VIDEO: Polar Bear Testing New Shorefast Ice off Wapusk National Park, Western Hudson Bay, November 5, 2020 (below):
SHOREFAST ICE ACROSS THE ARCTIC
Virtually everywhere in the peripheral seas of the Arctic Ocean (Barents, Kara, Laptev, Chukchi, Beaufort, as well as Baffin Bay and Davis Strait, shorefast ice thick enough to support a polar bear forms before the mobile ice pack in the central Arctic expands to the shores of the peripheral seas (below).
For example, although most years the pack ice doesn’t move very far away from the Russian shore in summer, this year was different – leading our most socially-vocal polar bear ‘expert’ to express his worry for the fate of Russian bears.
Far from good news for polar bears living here. No ice, no ice bears. It's unfortunate we don't have population monitoring in this area: we'll probably never know how the bears are doing. https://t.co/reOXqBRRme — Andrew Derocher (@AEDerocher) October 19, 2020
Even without being able to see it happening, it is certain that shorefast ice development was providing critical habitat for seals and polar bears along the Russian coast this fall by late October (below).
Shorefast ice development along the Laptev and Kara Seas at 27 October 2020, NSIDC Masie.
Shorefast ice development along the Laptev and Kara Seas at 27 October 2020, NSIDC Masie.
By this time, there was plenty of ice at the edge of the Laptev Sea for polar bears that had spent the summer on shore to resume feeding, both along the mainland and on offshore islands – even though the Arctic pack ice was still a long distance offshore.
Despite knowing full well that shore-bound polar bears can use new shorefast ice as a successful hunting platform wherever it develops over shallow continental shelves in the Arctic, Derocher implies a few weeks later that Laptev Sea bears are not able to hunt until the pack ice returns, as it did in early November:
Good news for the Laptev Sea polar bears. The bears will be following the advancing ice to reach hunting areas. The autumn hunting is not as important as the spring but for many bears, a seal or two now will be the difference between surviving or not. https://t.co/FgXcDdJ1yi — Andrew Derocher (@AEDerocher) November 9, 2020
Bottom line: Shorefast ice formation that leads to the predictable but short-lived presence of ringed seals explains why fall is the second-most important feeding period for polar bears throughout the Arctic.
REFERENCES
Buckley, J.R., Gammelsrod, T., Johannessen, O.M. and Roed, L.P. 1979. Upwelling: Oceanic structure at the Arctic ice pack in winter. Science 203 (4376):165-167. DOI: 10.1126/science.203.4376.165
Castro de la Guardia, L., Myers, P.G., Derocher, A.E., Lunn, N.J., Terwisscha van Scheltinga, A.D. 2017. Sea ice cycle in western Hudson Bay, Canada, from a polar bear perspective. Marine Ecology Progress Series 564: 225–233. http://www.int-res.com/abstracts/meps/v564/p225-233/
Chambellant, M. 2010. Hudson Bay ringed seal: ecology in a warming climate. In S.H. Ferguson et al. (eds.), A Little Less Arctic: Top Predators in the World’s Largest Northern Inland Sea, Hudson Bay, Springer Science+Business Media B.V. DOI 10.1007/978-90-481-9121-5_7
Crockford, S.J. and Frederick, G. 2011. Neoglacial sea ice and life history flexibility in ringed and fur seals. pg. 65-91 In, T. Braje and R. Torrey, eds. Human and Marine Ecosystems: Archaeology and Historical Ecology of Northeastern Pacific Seals, Sea Lions, and Sea Otters. U. California Press, LA.
Dunbar, M.J. 1981. Physical causes and biological significance of polynyas and other open water in sea ice. In: Polynyas in the Canadian Arctic, Stirling, I. and Cleator, H. (eds), pg. 29-43. Canadian Wildlife Service, Occasional Paper No. 45. Ottawa.
McLaren, I.A. 1958. The biology of the ringed seal (Phoca hispida Schreber) in the Eastern Canadian Arctic. Fisheries Research Board of Canada, Ottawa. Bulletin 118. Pdf here.
Obbard, M.E., Cattet, M.R.I., Howe, E.J., Middel, K.R., Newton, E.J., Kolenosky, G.B., Abraham, K.F. and Greenwood, C.J. 2016. Trends in body condition in polar bears (Ursus maritimus) from the Southern Hudson Bay subpopulation in relation to changes in sea ice. Arctic Science 2: 15-32. DOI: 10.1139/AS-2015-0027
Smith, T.G. 1987. The ringed seal, Phoca hispida, of the Canadian western Arctic. Canadian Bulletin of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 216.
Stirling, I. 1997. The importance of polynyas, ice edges, and leads to marine mammals and birds. Journal of Marine Systems 10: 9-21.
Stirling I, Jonkel C, Smith P, Robertson R, Cross D. 1977. The ecology of the polar bear (Ursus maritimus) along the western coast of Hudson Bay. Canadian Wildlife Service Occasional Paper No. 33. pdf here.
Stirling, I. and Øritsland, N. A. 1995. Relationships between estimates of ringed seal (Phoca hispida) and polar bear (Ursus maritimus) populations in the Canadian Arctic. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 52: 2594 – 2612. http://www.nrcresearchpress.com/doi/abs/10.1139/f95-849#.VNep0y5v_gU
Stirling, I, Cleator, H. and Smith, T.G. 1981. Marine mammals. In: Polynyas in the Canadian Arctic, Stirling, I. and Cleator, H. (eds), pg. 45-58. Canadian Wildlife Service, Occasional Paper No. 45. Ottawa. Excerpts of several papers here.
Tremblay, J.-E., Robert, D., Varela, D.E., Lovejoy, C., Nelson, R.J. and Sastri, A.R. 2012. Current state and trends in Canadian Arctic marine ecosystems: 1. Primary production. Climate Change 115:161-178. Open access. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-012-0496-3
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wattsupwiththat--2020-11-17--A sweeping climate model of the Red Sea

A sweeping climate model of the Red Sea

Projections of atmospheric and oceanic processes in the Red Sea are informing the design of sustainable megacities being planned and built along its shores .
The Red Sea is a vital natural and economic resource both for the region and the world .
Rapid population and industrial growth along the coast , along with the rising threats of global warming , have highlighted the need to build sustainable cities and maintain a healthy marine ecosystem .
Saudi Arabia generates nearly one-fifth of its income from tourism , shipping , agriculture and fishing in the Red Sea , and gets 90 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
These industries all rely upon atmospheric and oceanic conditions , which form part of a complex climate system about which very little was previously known .
An international team led by Ibrahim Hoteit , Professor of Earth Sciences and Engineering at KAUST , has combined expertise in weather , oceans , waves , air pollution , marine ecosystems and data visualization to create an all-in-one climate modeling system for the Red Sea region , using satellite and surface observations to refine the output .
“ By building expertise in a region instead @ @ @ @ @ @ @ circulation , ecosystems and climate in the Red Sea like never before , ” says Hoteit .
The system , which was built on a supercomputer at KAUST , has generated the first high-resolution oceanic and atmospheric analyses of the region for the past 40 years , which revealed how natural processes in the Red Sea connect with the earth ’ s climate .
“ We were surprised to see the Indian monsoon ’ s role in seasonally reversing the overturning circulation in the Red Sea , ” says Hoteit .
“ It @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the southern Red Sea.
” The modeling system can predict numerous processes , including ocean and atmospheric circulation patterns , marine ecosystem behavior , the spread of air pollution and the potential path of an oil spill .
This is already providing essential information to academia , government and industry in Saudi Arabia , supporting research into Red Sea biodiversity hotspots , environmental policymaking , renewable energy projects and flood protection .
For example , their reconstruction of extreme wave heights along the shoreline guided the design of the sea wall that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Economic City .
Hoteit ’ s team continue to enhance the system ’ s performance and expand its capabilities , with a particular focus on forecasting at the seasonal timescale and high spatial resolution simulations of urban environments .
“ We want to turn this into an easy-to-use , online visualization tool to support local authorities and industry in solving environmental problems in the region , ” he says .

KING ABDULLAH UNIVERSITY OF SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY (KAUST)
Research News
IMAGE: KAUST RESEARCHERS HAVE DEVELOPED A CLIMATE MODEL TO PREDICT FUTURE CHANGES THAT WILL AFFECT THE RED SEA. view more CREDIT: © 2020 MORGAN BENNETT SMITH
Projections of atmospheric and oceanic processes in the Red Sea are informing the design of sustainable megacities being planned and built along its shores.
The Red Sea is a vital natural and economic resource both for the region and the world. Rapid population and industrial growth along the coast, along with the rising threats of global warming, have highlighted the need to build sustainable cities and maintain a healthy marine ecosystem. Saudi Arabia generates nearly one-fifth of its income from tourism, shipping, agriculture and fishing in the Red Sea, and gets 90 percent of its freshwater from desalinated seawater. These industries all rely upon atmospheric and oceanic conditions, which form part of a complex climate system about which very little was previously known.
An international team led by Ibrahim Hoteit, Professor of Earth Sciences and Engineering at KAUST, has combined expertise in weather, oceans, waves, air pollution, marine ecosystems and data visualization to create an all-in-one climate modeling system for the Red Sea region, using satellite and surface observations to refine the output. “By building expertise in a region instead of a discipline, we can understand circulation, ecosystems and climate in the Red Sea like never before,” says Hoteit.
The system, which was built on a supercomputer at KAUST, has generated the first high-resolution oceanic and atmospheric analyses of the region for the past 40 years, which revealed how natural processes in the Red Sea connect with the earth’s climate. “We were surprised to see the Indian monsoon’s role in seasonally reversing the overturning circulation in the Red Sea,” says Hoteit. “It has helped explain unusual summer chlorophyll blooms in the southern Red Sea.”
The modeling system can predict numerous processes, including ocean and atmospheric circulation patterns, marine ecosystem behavior, the spread of air pollution and the potential path of an oil spill. This is already providing essential information to academia, government and industry in Saudi Arabia, supporting research into Red Sea biodiversity hotspots, environmental policymaking, renewable energy projects and flood protection. For example, their reconstruction of extreme wave heights along the shoreline guided the design of the sea wall that will protect the newly built King Abdullah Economic City.
Hoteit’s team continue to enhance the system’s performance and expand its capabilities, with a particular focus on forecasting at the seasonal timescale and high spatial resolution simulations of urban environments. “We want to turn this into an easy-to-use, online visualization tool to support local authorities and industry in solving environmental problems in the region,” he says.
###
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wattsupwiththat--2020-11-17--Where Are All the Sick People?

Where Are All the Sick People?

When I am puzzled by something , I try to find out what ’ s really going on .
Years ago , I wrote “ What Are They Really Counting ?
” .
The lessons in that essay are even more important today than they were when I penned it at the end of 2015 .
Many governments of the world have largely shut down their economies and issued edicts restricting the normal every-day activities of their citizens because of the SARS-CoV-2 virus and the illness it causes – Covid-19 .
We are bombarded in the media with screaming headlines @ @ @ @ @ @ @ : The curious thing is that among all my family , friends , acquaintances and colleagues , I know of only two people who have been sick with/from ( or even suspected ) Covid-19 during the entire pandemic period .
My wife has one extended family member who was sick , hospitalized for 24 hours out of extreme caution , in Spain .
No one I ask knows anyone who is sick with/from Covid-19 .
For those of you with little time or no patience : [ if that does not work , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ There is one exception , we have a friend with a daughter who is a nurse in a dedicated Covid-ward in a local hospital .
There have been some sick Covid-19 patients there .
Some have even died : This graph shows the daily Covid-19 deaths for my local county .
There have been 87 deaths in the county with Covid-19 mentioned in any way on the death certificate .
Since June 2020 , there have been only 8 deaths from/with Covid .
With a population of about 180,000 .
This gives my @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 48.3/100,000 .
Even if Covid-deaths continue at the current rate and rise to 105 by the end of the year – our annual country-wide Covid-death rate would be only 58/100,000 .
New York State as a whole has a Covid-death rate of 175/100,000 .
The death rate of NY State is over 3.6 times higher than in my county .
For comparison , the annual death rate from cancers , nationally , is about 160/100,000 .
Our local NPR station out of Albany , NY , which I will call “ WDNC ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ today ’ s “ Round Table ” program from several readers , all of whom claimed that they didn ’ t know anyone who had been or was presently sick with Covid-19 , however , they were sure that the apparent-President-elect would do the right thing by issuing orders for every citizen to “ wear a mask ” .
Previous to this , I thought it might be a quirk that among my friends and acquaintances , my family , my county that there weren ’ t any/many sick people .
However , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ she too didn ’ t know any sick people , but had heard that there were some in Texas .
During a rather unpleasant visit to my dentist earlier today , neither the dentist or any or his staff knew anyone who had been or was sick with Covid-19 .
My father was a doctor , I come from a medical family , I studied Pre-Med originally before switching majors , several times .
I did humanitarian work in a third-world country where the threats of malaria , dengue and yellow fever were @ @ @ @ @ @ @ must be sick people – there are people dying , after all .
A lot of people dying , seemingly , but .
.
.
.
Total Deaths in the U.S. are not higher than normal for this time of year , despite Covid 19 according to CDC mortality figures .
( To see Total Deaths , you must download the .csv file from the GREEN LINK near the top of the page . )
The CDC figures for New York State show the same thing – Total Deaths are running even with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Same link – select State instead of the default National .
The .csv file is by week , so compare previous years by week numbers .
Note : The most current weeks will be incorrect – too low — not fully reported yet – back at least three weeks . )
So , just to try to get a handle on the actuality of the Covid-19 pandemic , as experienced in the real world by readers here , I have created this little three-question survey – I will publish the results here once @ @ @ @ @ @ @ week , which comes first .
[ if that does not work , click here to take the survey ] The survey is only three questions , with dropdowns for your numerical answers .
Very quick and easy .
If you wish to contribute personal or local information , or anecdotes , use the comment section .
Covid-19 is not a hoax .
It is not a fantasy .
It is not simply made up .
However , the responses of our governments , in the United States , and in many other @ @ @ @ @ @ @ more harmful that the pandemic itself .
History will replete with books recounting the horrors caused by the worldwide Covid Pandemic Panic .
One of the first to hit the stands is : “ The Price of Panic : How the Tyranny of Experts Turned a Pandemic Into a Catastrophe ” by Jay W. Richards , William M. Briggs and Douglas Axe .
Available in hardback , e-book editions and in audible formats .
I recommend it .
Keep following Watts Up With That to catch the survey results .

Guest Survey by Kip Hansen – 17 November 2020
When I am puzzled by something, I try to find out what’s really going on. Years ago, I wrote “What Are They Really Counting?”. The lessons in that essay are even more important today than they were when I penned it at the end of 2015. Many governments of the world have largely shut down their economies and issued edicts restricting the normal every-day activities of their citizens because of the SARS-CoV-2 virus and the illness it causes – Covid-19. We are bombarded in the media with screaming headlines of “rising cases” like this:
The curious thing is that among all my family, friends, acquaintances and colleagues, I know of only two people who have been sick with/from (or even suspected) Covid-19 during the entire pandemic period. My wife has one extended family member who was sick, hospitalized for 24 hours out of extreme caution, in Spain. No one I ask knows anyone who is sick with/from Covid-19.
For those of you with little time or no patience:
[if that does not work, click here to take the survey]
There is one exception, we have a friend with a daughter who is a nurse in a dedicated Covid-ward in a local hospital. There have been some sick Covid-19 patients there. Some have even died:
This graph shows the daily Covid-19 deaths for my local county. There have been 87 deaths in the county with Covid-19 mentioned in any way on the death certificate. Since June 2020, there have been only 8 deaths from/with Covid. With a population of about 180,000. This gives my county an approximate generalized death rate of 48.3/100,000. Even if Covid-deaths continue at the current rate and rise to 105 by the end of the year – our annual country-wide Covid-death rate would be only 58/100,000. New York State as a whole has a Covid-death rate of 175/100,000. The death rate of NY State is over 3.6 times higher than in my county. For comparison, the annual death rate from cancers, nationally, is about 160/100,000.
Our local NPR station out of Albany, NY, which I will call “WDNC” for obvious reasons, read letters in today’s “Round Table” program from several readers, all of whom claimed that they didn’t know anyone who had been or was presently sick with Covid-19, however, they were sure that the apparent-President-elect would do the right thing by issuing orders for every citizen to “wear a mask”.
Previous to this, I thought it might be a quirk that among my friends and acquaintances, my family, my county that there weren’t any/many sick people. However, emailing a friend in Portugal revealed that she too didn’t know any sick people, but had heard that there were some in Texas. During a rather unpleasant visit to my dentist earlier today, neither the dentist or any or his staff knew anyone who had been or was sick with Covid-19.
My father was a doctor, I come from a medical family, I studied Pre-Med originally before switching majors, several times. I did humanitarian work in a third-world country where the threats of malaria, dengue and yellow fever were real everyday worries. I know there must be sick people – there are people dying, after all. A lot of people dying, seemingly, but . . . . Total Deaths in the U.S. are not higher than normal for this time of year, despite Covid 19 according to CDC mortality figures. (To see Total Deaths, you must download the .csv file from the GREEN LINK near the top of the page.) The CDC figures for New York State show the same thing – Total Deaths are running even with previous years – despite Covid-19. (Same link – select State instead of the default National. The .csv file is by week, so compare previous years by week numbers. Note: The most current weeks will be incorrect – too low — not fully reported yet – back at least three weeks.)
So, just to try to get a handle on the actuality of the Covid-19 pandemic, as experienced in the real world by readers here, I have created this little three-question survey – I will publish the results here once there are enough participants or in a week, which comes first.
[if that does not work, click here to take the survey]
The survey is only three questions, with dropdowns for your numerical answers. Very quick and easy. If you wish to contribute personal or local information, or anecdotes, use the comment section.
# # # # #
Author’s Comment:
Covid-19 is not a hoax. It is not a fantasy. It is not simply made up.
However, the responses of our governments, in the United States, and in many other countries around the world have been far more harmful that the pandemic itself. History will replete with books recounting the horrors caused by the worldwide Covid Pandemic Panic.
One of the first to hit the stands is: “The Price of Panic : How the Tyranny of Experts Turned a Pandemic Into a Catastrophe” by Jay W. Richards, William M. Briggs and Douglas Axe. Available in hardback, e-book editions and in audible formats. I recommend it.
Keep following Watts Up With That to catch the survey results.
# # # # #
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wattsupwiththat--2020-11-18--Good news: Gulf of Boothia and M’Clintock Channel polar bear survey results

Final reports for two Canadian subpopulations reveal the number of polar bears in M ’ Clintock Channel has more than doubled since 2000 while Gulf of Boothia as remained about the same despite moderate declines in summer sea ice cover .
All of the survey results were published online yesterday ( 16 November 2020 ) and I was alerted to the posting this morning via email by a Nunavut employee .
• Mean abundance estimate 716 ( range 545 – 955 ) for 2014-2016. compared to 284 ( range 225-343 ) for 1998-2000 ( Taylor et al .
2006 ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ between study periods .
• Numbers of males and females increased between study periods due to reduced hunting and ‘ improved habitat quality.
’ M ’ Clintock Channel ‘ Key Points ’ summary here and summary pdf is here .
Detailed summary here and full report pdf is here .
Sea ice decline : Note that according to the IUCN 2015 polar bear assessment report ( Regehr et al .
2016 Figure 2 ) , summer sea ice decline for M ’ Clintock Channel has been similar to Foxe Basin ( below ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ) of sea ice decline vs. documented harm to polar bears here .
• Mean abundance estimate 1525 ( range 1231-1819 ) for 2015–2017 compared to 1592 ( range 1231-1953 ) in 1998-2000 ( Taylor et al .
2009 ) , so about the same .
• Mean litter sizes showed no trend between study periods .
• Mean cub-of-the-year litter sizes were 1.61 ( range 1.51 – 1.70 ) , which is about as high as any population reported and similar to Western Hudson Bay in 2016 and Kane Basin in 2014 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ condition ( i.e.
, fatness ) in the spring increased between the study periods .
• Survival rate for adult females was higher than adult males ( 0.95 vs. 0.85 ) .
• Abundance of adult females increased from 0.57 to 0.61 between the study periods .
Detailed Gulf of Boothi summary here and full report pdf is here .
Sea ice decline : Note that according to the IUCN 2015 polar bear assessment report calculations ( Regehr et al .
2016 Figure 2 ) , summer sea ice decline for Gulf of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Beaufort : Crockford , S.J .
2020 .
State of the Polar Bear Report 2019 .
Global Warming Policy Foundation Report 39 , London .
Pdf here .
Dyck , M. , Lukacs , P. , and Ware , J.V .
2020 .
Re-estimating the abundance of a recovering polar bear subpopulation by genetic mark-recapture in M ’ Clintock Channel , Nunavut , Canada .
Final Report , Government of Nunavut , Department of Environment , Iglulik .
29 July 2020 .
Pdf here .
Dyck , M. , Regehr , E.V .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ Assessment of Abundance for the Gulf of Boothia Polar Bear Subpopulation Using Genetic Mark-Recapture .
Final Report , Government of Nunavut , Department of Environment , Iglulik .
12 June 2020 .
Pdf here .
Regehr , E.V.
, Laidre , K.L , Akçakaya , H.R.
, Amstrup , S.C. , Atwood , T.C.
, Lunn , N.J. , Obbard , M. , Stern , H. , Thiemann , G.W.
, & Wiig , Ø .
2016 .
Conservation status of polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ) in relation to projected sea-ice declines @ @ @ @ @ @ @ : //rsbl.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/12/12/20160556 Supplementary data here .
Taylor , M.K.
, J.L .
Laake , P.D .
McLoughlin , H.D .
Cluff , and F. Messier .
2006a .
Demography and population viability of polar bears in the Gulf of Boothia , Nunavut .
Government of Nunavut , Department of Environment , Final Wildlife Report # 8 , Iqaluit .
Pdf here .
Taylor , M.K.
, Laake , J.L.
, McLoughlin , P.D.
, Cluff , H.D.
, Messier , F. 2006b .
Demographic parameters and harvest-explicit population viability analysis for polar bears @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Journal of Wildlife Management 70 : 1667–1673 .
Taylor , M.K.
, Laake , J.L.
, McLoughlin , P.D.
, Cluff , H.D.
, and Messier , F. 2009 .
Demography and population viability of polar bears in the Gulf of Boothia , Nunavut .
Marine Mammal Science 25:778-796 .

Reposted from Polar Bear Science
Posted on November 17, 2020
Final reports for two Canadian subpopulations reveal the number of polar bears in M’Clintock Channel has more than doubled since 2000 while Gulf of Boothia as remained about the same despite moderate declines in summer sea ice cover. All of the survey results were published online yesterday (16 November 2020) and I was alerted to the posting this morning via email by a Nunavut employee.
M’Clintock Channel
2014-2016 via genetic biopsy darting
Dyck, Lukacs, and Ware (2020) summary:
Mean abundance estimate 716 (range 545 – 955) for 2014-2016.
compared to 284 (range 225-343) for 1998-2000 (Taylor et al. 2006), so population size more than doubled between study periods.
(range 545 – 955) for 2014-2016. compared to (range 225-343) for 1998-2000 (Taylor et al. 2006), so population size more than doubled between study periods. Numbers of males and females increased between study periods due to reduced hunting and ‘improved habitat quality.’
Population has recovered from previous overharvest (1970s-1990s).
M’Clintock Channel ‘Key Points’ summary here and summary pdf is here. Detailed summary here and full report pdf is here.
Sea ice decline: Note that according to the IUCN 2015 polar bear assessment report (Regehr et al. 2016 Figure 2), summer sea ice decline for M’Clintock Channel has been similar to Foxe Basin (below). See a discussion (with references) of sea ice decline vs. documented harm to polar bears here.
Gulf of Boothia
2015-2017 via genetic biopsy darting
Dyck, Regehr, and Ware (2020) summary:
Mean abundance estimate 1525 (range 1231-1819) for 2015–2017 compared to 1592 (range 1231-1953) in 1998-2000 (Taylor et al. 2009), so about the same.
(range 1231-1819) for 2015–2017 compared to (range 1231-1953) in 1998-2000 (Taylor et al. 2009), so about the same. Mean litter sizes showed no trend between study periods.
Mean cub-of-the-year litter sizes were 1.61 (range 1.51 – 1.70), which is about as high as any population reported and similar to Western Hudson Bay in 2016 and Kane Basin in 2014 (Crockford 2020).
Mean yearling litter sizes were 1.53 (1.41 – 1.64).
Body condition (i.e., fatness) in the spring increased between the study periods.
Survival rate for adult females was higher than adult males (0.95 vs. 0.85).
Abundance of adult females increased from 0.57 to 0.61 between the study periods.
Population survival indicators suggest a ‘good potential for growth’.
Detailed Gulf of Boothi summary here and full report pdf is here.
Sea ice decline: Note that according to the IUCN 2015 polar bear assessment report calculations (Regehr et al. 2016 Figure 2), summer sea ice decline for Gulf of Boothia has been similar to the Southern Beaufort:
References
Crockford, S.J. 2020. State of the Polar Bear Report 2019. Global Warming Policy Foundation Report 39, London. Pdf here.
Dyck, M., Lukacs, P., and Ware, J.V. 2020. Re-estimating the abundance of a recovering polar bear subpopulation by genetic mark-recapture in M’Clintock Channel, Nunavut, Canada. Final Report, Government of Nunavut, Department of Environment, Iglulik. 29 July 2020. Pdf here.
Dyck, M., Regehr, E.V. and Ware, J.V. 2020. Assessment of Abundance for the Gulf of Boothia Polar Bear Subpopulation Using Genetic Mark-Recapture. Final Report, Government of Nunavut, Department of Environment, Iglulik. 12 June 2020. Pdf here.
Regehr, E.V., Laidre, K.L, Akçakaya, H.R., Amstrup, S.C., Atwood, T.C., Lunn, N.J., Obbard, M., Stern, H., Thiemann, G.W., & Wiig, Ø. 2016. Conservation status of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in relation to projected sea-ice declines. Biology Letters 12: 20160556. http://rsbl.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/12/12/20160556 Supplementary data here.
Taylor, M.K., J.L. Laake, P.D. McLoughlin, H.D. Cluff, and F. Messier. 2006a. Demography and population viability of polar bears in the Gulf of Boothia, Nunavut. Government of Nunavut, Department of Environment, Final Wildlife Report #8, Iqaluit. Pdf here.
Taylor, M.K., Laake, J.L., McLoughlin, P.D., Cluff, H.D., Messier, F. 2006b. Demographic parameters and harvest-explicit population viability analysis for polar bears in M’Clintock Channel, Nunavut. Journal of Wildlife Management 70: 1667–1673.
Taylor, M.K., Laake, J.L., McLoughlin, P.D., Cluff, H.D., and Messier, F. 2009. Demography and population viability of polar bears in the Gulf of Boothia, Nunavut. Marine Mammal Science 25:778-796.
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wattsupwiththat--2020-11-18--Report Claim: In retrospect, the burning of wood in district heating plants has resulted in climate

Report Claim: In retrospect, the burning of wood in district heating plants has resulted in climate saving

A new report from the University of Copenhagen shows that the burning of wood is significantly more climate friendly than coal and slightly more climate friendly than ENERGY A new report from the University of Copenhagen shows that the burning of wood is significantly more climate friendly than coal and slightly more climate friendly than natural gas over the long run .
For the first time , researchers quantified what the conversion of 10 Danish cogeneration plants from coal or natural gas to biomass has meant for their greenhouse gas emissions .
Energy production is responsible for a large part @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2018 , more than 20 percent of greenhouse gas emissions were released as a result of heat and electricity production ( 9.4 out of 48 million tonnes of CO ) .
Photo : Getty A conversion to wood biomass ( wood chips and pellets ) by Danish district heating plants has benefited the climate and is the more climate-friendly option compared to coal and natural gas .
These are the findings of a new report from the University of Copenhagen ’ s Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management .
The study is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ what a conversion to wood biomass has meant for greenhouse gas emissions at ten Danish cogeneration plants — and thereby the climate impact of replacing either coal or natural gas in favour of wood biomass .
Among other things , researchers calculated the so-called carbon payback period for each plant , i.e .
how long it takes for the conversion to wood biomass to elicit a positive climate effect .
“ Our results demonstrate that the transition from coal to wood biomass has had a positive effect on CO emissions after an average @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to the transition from natural gas , it has in most cases taken between 9 and 22 years , and in one case 37 years before CO emissions were reduced , ” says Associate Professor Niclas Scott Bentsen of the Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management , who is one of the authors of the report .
The researchers also looked at the total CO emissions from the three energy sources over a 30-year period , which is the life expectancy of a cogeneration plant .
Transitioning from coal to biomass resulted @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in CO emissions , while the move away from natural gas resulted in emissions reductions between -4 and 19 percent .
The fact that , in one case , emissions were -4 percent after 30 years as a result of the conversion , is partly due to the fact that , in relation to energy content , burning natural gas emits less CO than burning wood , and that this particular plant had notable changes in its product portfolio .
“ When such large fluctuations in the figures occur , it is because @ @ @ @ @ @ @ CO emissions saved are significantly affected by the type of fuel , where it comes from and other alternative uses of the wood , ” says Associate Professor Niclas Scott Bentsen Forestry residues are best for the climate The 10 Danish cogeneration plants collected 32 percent of their wood biomass from Danish forests , while 41 percent was sourced from the Baltic states , seven percent from Russia and Belarus , and seven percent from the United States .
The type of wood biomass used and the distance it needed to be transported @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , according to Professor Bentsen .
“ For the typical plant that was once coal-fired , but now using wood from around Denmark and only uses forestry residue that can not be used for other products , the payback period was roughly one year .
The 30-year saving was as much as 60 % , ” explains Niclas Scott Bentsen .
Wood has an enormous potential to displace carbon heavy construction materials such as steel and concrete and is therefore an important aspect of the green transition .
“ Our study demonstrates that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for construction or other forms of production , where the long lifespan of wood can bind CO , is even better for the climate than using it as fuel , ” says Niclas Scott Bentsen .
The method used in the study includes an analysis of time series from individual plants that includes the pre- and post-conversion period from fossil energy sources to wood biomass .
Among other things , the analysis included specific knowledge of the type of fuel used , where the fuel came from and what alternative uses the wood @ @ @ @ @ @ @ responsible for a large part of Danish greenhouse gas emissions .
In 2018 , more than 20 percent of greenhouse gas emissions were released as a result of heat and electricity production ( 9.4 out of 48 million tonnes of CO ) Of Denmark ’ s total energy consumption , 16 percent of energy is generated from the burning of wood biomass .
By comparison , 7 percent of energy consumption comes from wind turbines .
To reduce the carbon recovery period and atmospheric CO emissions , utilities should focus on using residual @ @ @ @ @ @ @ logging or residuals from the wood industry that have no other use ) , biomass from productive forests , as well as reducing long transport distances .
The project is funded by Danish Energy and the Danish District Heating Association .
The project was followed by a follow-up group consisting of representatives from the Council for Green Conversion , the Danish Society for Nature Conservation , Concito and the Danish Energy Agency .
The report is peer reviewed by internationally renowned researchers .

A new report from the University of Copenhagen shows that the burning of wood is significantly more climate friendly than coal and slightly more climate friendly than
FACULTY OF SCIENCE – UNIVERSITY OF COPENHAGEN
Research News
ENERGY A new report from the University of Copenhagen shows that the burning of wood is significantly more climate friendly than coal and slightly more climate friendly than natural gas over the long run. For the first time, researchers quantified what the conversion of 10 Danish cogeneration plants from coal or natural gas to biomass has meant for their greenhouse gas emissions.
Heat plant
Energy production is responsible for a large part of Danish greenhouse gas emissions. In 2018, more than 20 percent of greenhouse gas emissions were released as a result of heat and electricity production (9.4 out of 48 million tonnes of CO 2 ). Photo: Getty
A conversion to wood biomass (wood chips and pellets) by Danish district heating plants has benefited the climate and is the more climate-friendly option compared to coal and natural gas. These are the findings of a new report from the University of Copenhagen’s Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management.
The study is the first retrospective investigation by researchers of what a conversion to wood biomass has meant for greenhouse gas emissions at ten Danish cogeneration plants — and thereby the climate impact of replacing either coal or natural gas in favour of wood biomass.
Among other things, researchers calculated the so-called carbon payback period for each plant, i.e. how long it takes for the conversion to wood biomass to elicit a positive climate effect.
“Our results demonstrate that the transition from coal to wood biomass has had a positive effect on CO 2 emissions after an average of six years. When it comes to the transition from natural gas, it has in most cases taken between 9 and 22 years, and in one case 37 years before CO 2 emissions were reduced,” says Associate Professor Niclas Scott Bentsen of the Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management, who is one of the authors of the report.
Reduction in CO 2 emissions
The researchers also looked at the total CO 2 emissions from the three energy sources over a 30-year period, which is the life expectancy of a cogeneration plant.
Transitioning from coal to biomass resulted in a 15 to 71 percent reduction in CO 2 emissions, while the move away from natural gas resulted in emissions reductions between -4 and 19 percent.
The fact that, in one case, emissions were -4 percent after 30 years as a result of the conversion, is partly due to the fact that, in relation to energy content, burning natural gas emits less CO 2 than burning wood, and that this particular plant had notable changes in its product portfolio.
“When such large fluctuations in the figures occur, it is because the payback period and the amount of CO 2 emissions saved are significantly affected by the type of fuel, where it comes from and other alternative uses of the wood,” says Associate Professor Niclas Scott Bentsen
Forestry residues are best for the climate
The 10 Danish cogeneration plants collected 32 percent of their wood biomass from Danish forests, while 41 percent was sourced from the Baltic states, seven percent from Russia and Belarus, and seven percent from the United States. The type of wood biomass used and the distance it needed to be transported factored into the carbon budget as well, according to Professor Bentsen.
“For the typical plant that was once coal-fired, but now using wood from around Denmark and only uses forestry residue that cannot be used for other products, the payback period was roughly one year. The 30-year saving was as much as 60%,” explains Niclas Scott Bentsen.
Wood has an enormous potential to displace carbon heavy construction materials such as steel and concrete and is therefore an important aspect of the green transition.
“Our study demonstrates that the extent to which wood is used for construction or other forms of production, where the long lifespan of wood can bind CO 2 , is even better for the climate than using it as fuel,” says Niclas Scott Bentsen.
FACTS:
The method used in the study includes an analysis of time series from individual plants that includes the pre- and post-conversion period from fossil energy sources to wood biomass. Among other things, the analysis included specific knowledge of the type of fuel used, where the fuel came from and what alternative uses the wood might have had.
Energy production is responsible for a large part of Danish greenhouse gas emissions. In 2018, more than 20 percent of greenhouse gas emissions were released as a result of heat and electricity production (9.4 out of 48 million tonnes of CO 2 )
Of Denmark’s total energy consumption, 16 percent of energy is generated from the burning of wood biomass. By comparison, 7 percent of energy consumption comes from wind turbines.
To reduce the carbon recovery period and atmospheric CO 2 emissions, utilities should focus on using residual biomass (tree branches and crowns from logging or residuals from the wood industry that have no other use), biomass from productive forests, as well as reducing long transport distances.
###
The project is funded by Danish Energy and the Danish District Heating Association. The project was followed by a follow-up group consisting of representatives from the Council for Green Conversion, the Danish Society for Nature Conservation, Concito and the Danish Energy Agency. The report is peer reviewed by internationally renowned researchers.
From EurekAlert!
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wattsupwiththat--2020-11-18--Washington Post: President Biden will Punish Australia for Climate Failures

According to the Washington Post , Biden plans to impose trade tariffs on Australia unless Australia embraces a net zero carbon plan and curbs Australia ’ s CO2 intensive energy export industry .
SYDNEY — Joe Biden ’ s victory in the presidential election was largely welcomed by America ’ s friends as a step toward more predictable and conventional U.S. foreign policy .
One close American ally , though , faces a thorny predicament as a result of Biden ’ s plan to build a global coalition to combat global warming : Australia .
Australia is the world ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ natural gas exporter , according to industry bodies , and one of the biggest emitters of greenhouse gases per person .
This status , combined with years of hand-wringing on both sides of Australian politics over climate policies , has earned the country a reputation as a climate-change laggard .
“ Australia has nowhere to hide , ” former Labor prime minister Kevin Rudd said in an interview .
“ It ’ s time for Morrison to swallow his pride , admit he was wrong and embrace a carbon target.
” “ Our @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the United Kingdom ; they won ’ t be set in Brussels ; they won ’ t be set in any part of the world other than here , ” Morrison said last week .
Once a Biden administration takes office , one of the main economic threats to Australia is whether the United States goes ahead with a plan to impose tariffs on big emitters of carbon dioxide .
A lot of Australian mainstream media outlets and celebrities backed Biden to win against Trump .
If Biden imposes climate sanctions , or @ @ @ @ @ @ @ placate a new US administration , everyone in Australia would feel the impact ; curbing Australian exports would likely turn Australia ’ s mild trade surplus into a trade deficit , ending the economic free run Australians have enjoyed for the last two decades , by putting upward pressure on interest rates and the prices of imported goods .
Biden sanctions could force Australia to choose between reconciliation with China and economic ruin .
Australia ’ s support for US efforts to curb China ’ s aggressive expansionism has triggered a costly trade @ @ @ @ @ @ @ no position to fight a trade war with both the USA and China at the same time .

Aussie PM Scott Morrison Brandishes a Lump of Coal in Parliament
Guest essay by Eric Worrall
According to the Washington Post, Biden plans to impose trade tariffs on Australia unless Australia embraces a net zero carbon plan and curbs Australia’s CO2 intensive energy export industry.
Biden’s plan to combat climate change leaves coal-loving Australia an outlier By A. Odysseus PatrickNovember 17, 2020 at 8:00 p.m. GMT+10 SYDNEY — Joe Biden’s victory in the presidential election was largely welcomed by America’s friends as a step toward more predictable and conventional U.S. foreign policy. One close American ally, though, faces a thorny predicament as a result of Biden’s plan to build a global coalition to combat global warming: Australia. Australia is the world’s second-largest coal exporter and top liquefied natural gas exporter, according to industry bodies, and one of the biggest emitters of greenhouse gases per person. This status, combined with years of hand-wringing on both sides of Australian politics over climate policies, has earned the country a reputation as a climate-change laggard. … “Australia has nowhere to hide,” former Labor prime minister Kevin Rudd said in an interview. “It’s time for Morrison to swallow his pride, admit he was wrong and embrace a carbon target.” … “Our policies won’t be set in the United Kingdom; they won’t be set in Brussels; they won’t be set in any part of the world other than here,” Morrison said last week. … Once a Biden administration takes office, one of the main economic threats to Australia is whether the United States goes ahead with a plan to impose tariffs on big emitters of carbon dioxide. … Read more: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/australia-climate-fires-biden-murdoch/2020/11/17/25516342-2306-11eb-9c4a-0dc6242c4814_story.html
A lot of Australian mainstream media outlets and celebrities backed Biden to win against Trump.
If Biden imposes climate sanctions, or if Australia shuts down energy exports to placate a new US administration, everyone in Australia would feel the impact; curbing Australian exports would likely turn Australia’s mild trade surplus into a trade deficit, ending the economic free run Australians have enjoyed for the last two decades, by putting upward pressure on interest rates and the prices of imported goods.
Biden sanctions could force Australia to choose between reconciliation with China and economic ruin. Australia’s support for US efforts to curb China’s aggressive expansionism has triggered a costly trade war with China. Australia is in no position to fight a trade war with both the USA and China at the same time.
Update (EW): “If you make China the Enemy, China will be the enemy” – a leaked document has just provided the latest example of just how toxic Australia’s relationship with China is becoming, thanks to Australia’s support for the USA. But China has left the door open – providing Australia adopts a more China friendly attitude.
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wattsupwiththat--2020-11-19--2020 Hurricane Season Curtailed Over 40 Million bbl of GOM Oil Production

2008 was just about the worst year in recorded history .
We had the financial collapse , the start of the “ Great Recession , ” the coronation of Barrack Hussein Obama and worst of all… Hurricanes Gustav & Ike .
Gustav and Ike , particularly Ike , dropped Gulf of Mexico ( GOM ) oil production nearly down to the Dean Wormer Line ( zero-point-zero ) .
While 2020 hasn ’ t been bad as 2008 or 2005 , it ’ s been bad .
NOVEMBER 18 , 2020 The Gulf of Mexico saw its largest decrease in crude @ @ @ @ @ @ @ August 2020 , the Federal Offshore Gulf of Mexico ( GOM ) saw its largest monthly decrease in production of crude oil since September 2008 , dropping by 453,000 barrels per day ( b/d ) , or 27 % .
Production of crude oil in the GOM totaled 1.2 million b/d in August 2020 , which is its lowest production rate in nearly seven years .
The regional drop in production resulted from the path of both Hurricanes Laura and Marco in late August .
Hurricane Laura and Hurricane Marco , which came @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ( in other words , not operating ) starting on August 22 , 2020 , and led operators to reduce output for 15 days .
Hurricane Marco ( the weaker of the two storms ) came through first , making landfall on August 24 , which affected the magnitude and timing of shut-ins from Hurricane Laura .
Three days later , Hurricane Laura ( the 10th-strongest U.S. hurricane on record , as determined by the speed of its winds ) made landfall on August 27 .
The U.S. Bureau of Safety and Environmental @ @ @ @ @ @ @ million barrels of crude oil production was curtailed over the course of 15 days because of the storms .
BSEE estimates that about 84 % of GOM crude oil production was shut in at the peak of the disruption as a result of crew evacuations .
In 2020 , so far , five hurricanes and one tropical depression have caused disruptions to crude oil production in the GOM .
Hurricane Zeta was the most recent storm to hit the GOM , and it caused production curtailments through November 4 , 2020 .
To @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the Atlantic in 2020 , surpassing the 28 storms of 2005 and making the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season the most active on record .
In the November 2020 Short-Term Energy Outlook , the U.S. Energy Information Administration ( EIA ) estimates that the production of crude oil in the GOM averaged 1.73 million barrels per day ( b/d ) in September and fell to 1.29 million b/d in October because of Hurricanes Delta and Zeta .
EIA expects crude oil production in the GOM to recover to nearly 1.92 million b/d by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ b/d in 2020 .
When it comes to oil & gas production , hurricanes cause extensive damage even when they cause little , if any physical damage , and the damage starts before they arrive .
Preparations to shut in production and evacuate manned production facilities generally have to commence 2-7 days before the effects of the storm reach the platform .
Approximately 42 million barrels ( bbl ) of crude oil production was curtailed ( delayed ) by six named storms in 2020 .
This equates to about 22 days of lost @ @ @ @ @ @ @ course much worse things can happen to GOM oil production .
Super Storm Obama curtailed about 500,000 bbl/d from 2011-2013 .
Unless the recounts and legal challenges alter the apparent outcome of the 2020 presidential election , Mega-Apocalypse-Ginormous-Super Storm Obiden could cause even more damage .

Guest “I hate hurricanes” by David Middleton
2008 was just about the worst year in recorded history. We had the financial collapse, the start of the “Great Recession,” the coronation of Barrack Hussein Obama and worst of all… Hurricanes Gustav & Ike.
Gustav and Ike, particularly Ike, dropped Gulf of Mexico (GOM) oil production nearly down to the Dean Wormer Line (zero-point-zero). While 2020 hasn’t been bad as 2008 or 2005, it’s been bad.
Figure 1. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Petroleum Supply Monthly
NOVEMBER 18, 2020
The Gulf of Mexico saw its largest decrease in crude oil production since 2008 in August In August 2020, the Federal Offshore Gulf of Mexico (GOM) saw its largest monthly decrease in production of crude oil since September 2008, dropping by 453,000 barrels per day (b/d), or 27%. Production of crude oil in the GOM totaled 1.2 million b/d in August 2020, which is its lowest production rate in nearly seven years. The regional drop in production resulted from the path of both Hurricanes Laura and Marco in late August. Hurricane Laura and Hurricane Marco, which came through the GOM consecutively, caused shut-ins (in other words, not operating) starting on August 22, 2020, and led operators to reduce output for 15 days. Hurricane Marco (the weaker of the two storms) came through first, making landfall on August 24, which affected the magnitude and timing of shut-ins from Hurricane Laura. Three days later, Hurricane Laura (the 10th-strongest U.S. hurricane on record, as determined by the speed of its winds) made landfall on August 27. The U.S. Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE) estimates that 14.4 million barrels of crude oil production was curtailed over the course of 15 days because of the storms. BSEE estimates that about 84% of GOM crude oil production was shut in at the peak of the disruption as a result of crew evacuations. In 2020, so far, five hurricanes and one tropical depression have caused disruptions to crude oil production in the GOM. Hurricane Zeta was the most recent storm to hit the GOM, and it caused production curtailments through November 4, 2020. To date, 30 named storms have formed in the Atlantic in 2020, surpassing the 28 storms of 2005 and making the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season the most active on record. In the November 2020 Short-Term Energy Outlook, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates that the production of crude oil in the GOM averaged 1.73 million barrels per day (b/d) in September and fell to 1.29 million b/d in October because of Hurricanes Delta and Zeta. EIA expects crude oil production in the GOM to recover to nearly 1.92 million b/d by December 2020 and to average 1.71 million b/d in 2020. Principal contributors: Emily Geary, Kirby Lawrence US EIA
When it comes to oil & gas production, hurricanes cause extensive damage even when they cause little, if any physical damage, and the damage starts before they arrive. Preparations to shut in production and evacuate manned production facilities generally have to commence 2-7 days before the effects of the storm reach the platform. Approximately 42 million barrels (bbl) of crude oil production was curtailed (delayed) by six named storms in 2020. This equates to about 22 days of lost production at 1.9 million bbl/d.
Figure 2. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, based on U.S. Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE)
Of course much worse things can happen to GOM oil production. Super Storm Obama curtailed about 500,000 bbl/d from 2011-2013.
Figure 3. Superstorm Obama damage.
Unless the recounts and legal challenges alter the apparent outcome of the 2020 presidential election, Mega-Apocalypse-Ginormous-Super Storm Obiden could cause even more damage.
Figure 4. A Biden ban on “new oil and gas permitting on public lands and waters” would cut GOM oil production in half by 2028 and by nearly 80% by 2040. (NOIA)
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wattsupwiththat--2020-11-18--Pennsylvania is Flirting with Self-Imposed Energy Disaster

Americans can ’ t afford to pay more for electricity , especially with millions out of work in the midst of pandemic-induced economic upheaval .
Yet , higher electricity costs and economic turmoil are coming if lawmakers continue to pursue policies that mandate an aggressive pivot away from existing baseload power to intermittent , more expensive alternatives .
Pennsylvania is now on the front lines of this policy battle .
Governor Tom Wolf is trying to circumvent the Pennsylvania General Assembly and push the commonwealth into the 10-state Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative ( RGGI ) .
The move promises little @ @ @ @ @ @ @ guarantee extraordinary costs .
By the governor ’ s own estimates , joining the RGGI would impose a $ 2.36 billion tax on fossil fuel power plants in Pennsylvania over the next 10 years .
That $ 2.36 billion RGGI tax will have a cascading effect on communities across the state .
Thousands of Pennsylvanians will lose their jobs , and electricity consumers – especially low-income and fixed-income households – will likely face significantly higher bills that they simply can ’ t afford .
How much more ?
Virginia , which recently moved @ @ @ @ @ @ @ so will impose as much as $ 6 billion more in electricity costs on its ratepayers over the next 10 years .
That estimate could very well prove to be too low .
States currently in the RGGI , like New York , Connecticut and Massachusetts , boast some of the highest electricity rates in the country .
In fact , on average , electricity rates in RGGI states are 50 percent more than they are in Pennsylvania .
If the RGGI fancies itself a trailblazer in addressing carbon emissions , it has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
New England has dismantled its own fuel diversity , closing well operating coal plants , throttling the construction of needed natural gas pipeline capacity , and even closing reliable , baseload nuclear power capacity .
The result of this policy malpractice is some of the highest electricity prices in the country coupled with an escalating fuel security crisis .
The New England grid operator has gone so far as to warn that 30 percent of the region ’ s natural gas generating fleet could be without fuel on particularly cold days .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ or any other state – should want or pay more to achieve .
What Pennsylvanians want – what consumers across the country want – is a recommitment to energy affordability and a path towards emissions reduction that doesn ’ t impose higher energy prices or the dismantling of critical industries .
In fact , a staggering 85 percent of Americans are concerned with rising electricity rates .
Governor Wolf ’ s agenda is diametrically opposed to the leadership consumers are looking for .
Energy and emissions leadership is not going to be achieved @ @ @ @ @ @ @ energy taxes on consumers who can ’ t afford them .
All the Governor has to do is look just outside Pittsburgh for a better approach .
Pennsylvania ’ s Consol Energy recently received a grant from the Department of Energy to design a small coal-fired power plant that would capture its carbon dioxide emissions and store it underground .
And the U.S. National Energy Technology Laboratory is pursing cutting-edge research to develop the energy technologies of tomorrow that can reduce emissions from the fuels that meet the vast majority of the world @ @ @ @ @ @ @ do so well into the future .
The right approach to U.S. energy and emissions leadership is through technology – technology that holds down energy costs , improves reliability and creates globally replicable solutions .

Americans can’t afford to pay more for electricity, especially with millions out of work in the midst of pandemic-induced economic upheaval. Yet, higher electricity costs and economic turmoil are coming if lawmakers continue to pursue policies that mandate an aggressive pivot away from existing baseload power to intermittent, more expensive alternatives.
Pennsylvania is now on the front lines of this policy battle. Governor Tom Wolf is trying to circumvent the Pennsylvania General Assembly and push the commonwealth into the 10-state Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI). The move promises little in the way of benefits but does guarantee extraordinary costs.
By the governor’s own estimates, joining the RGGI would impose a $2.36 billion tax on fossil fuel power plants in Pennsylvania over the next 10 years. That $2.36 billion RGGI tax will have a cascading effect on communities across the state. Thousands of Pennsylvanians will lose their jobs, and electricity consumers – especially low-income and fixed-income households – will likely face significantly higher bills that they simply can’t afford.
How much more? Virginia, which recently moved to joined RGGI, estimates that doing so will impose as much as $6 billion more in electricity costs on its ratepayers over the next 10 years. That estimate could very well prove to be too low.
States currently in the RGGI, like New York, Connecticut and Massachusetts, boast some of the highest electricity rates in the country. In fact, on average, electricity rates in RGGI states are 50 percent more than they are in Pennsylvania.
If the RGGI fancies itself a trailblazer in addressing carbon emissions, it has blazed a trail no state should follow. New England has dismantled its own fuel diversity, closing well operating coal plants, throttling the construction of needed natural gas pipeline capacity, and even closing reliable, baseload nuclear power capacity.
The result of this policy malpractice is some of the highest electricity prices in the country coupled with an escalating fuel security crisis. The New England grid operator has gone so far as to warn that 30 percent of the region’s natural gas generating fleet could be without fuel on particularly cold days. This is hardly the future Pennsylvania – or any other state – should want or pay more to achieve.
What Pennsylvanians want – what consumers across the country want – is a recommitment to energy affordability and a path towards emissions reduction that doesn’t impose higher energy prices or the dismantling of critical industries. In fact, a staggering 85 percent of Americans are concerned with rising electricity rates.
Governor Wolf’s agenda is diametrically opposed to the leadership consumers are looking for. Energy and emissions leadership is not going to be achieved by killing community-supporting jobs and imposing de-facto energy taxes on consumers who can’t afford them.
All the Governor has to do is look just outside Pittsburgh for a better approach. Pennsylvania’s Consol Energy recently received a grant from the Department of Energy to design a small coal-fired power plant that would capture its carbon dioxide emissions and store it underground. And the U.S. National Energy Technology Laboratory is pursing cutting-edge research to develop the energy technologies of tomorrow that can reduce emissions from the fuels that meet the vast majority of the world’s energy and will continue to do so well into the future. The right approach to U.S. energy and emissions leadership is through technology – technology that holds down energy costs, improves reliability and creates globally replicable solutions.


wattsupwiththat--2020-11-18--Claim: The USA’s Largest Radio Observatory is on the Verge of Structural Collapse

According to The Register , after two recent cable failures the 900 ton platform suspended above the gigantic Arecibo radio telescope in Puerto Rico is literally hanging by a thread .
Fraying has been observed in the other cables .
Engineers are refusing to certify whether the remaining cables can hold the central platform .
America ’ s largest radio telescope close to collapse as engineers race to fix fraying cables 900-ton receiver platform threatens to plummet into dish below The remaining cables supporting a 900-ton platform hanging over America ’ s largest radio telescope are struggling to take the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ dish .
The Arecibo Observatory instrument , located in a national forest in Puerto Rico , was the largest radio telescope of its kind in the world until 2016 when the Chinese built a bigger one .
Now the US installation ’ s future hangs in the balance as engineers attempt to reinforce the structure after one of the cables holding up the overhead platform fell away and tore a 100-ft-long gash in the telescope ’ s dish below .
Some of the wires in the platform ’ s remaining cables are already @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the structure holding the telescope ’ s receiver will come tumbling down with disastrous results , according to the University of Central Florida , which operates the observatory .

Guest essay by Eric Worrall
According to The Register, after two recent cable failures the 900 ton platform suspended above the gigantic Arecibo radio telescope in Puerto Rico is literally hanging by a thread. Fraying has been observed in the other cables. Engineers are refusing to certify whether the remaining cables can hold the central platform.
America’s largest radio telescope close to collapse as engineers race to fix fraying cables
900-ton receiver platform threatens to plummet into dish below
Katyanna Quach Tue 17 Nov 2020 // 15:37 UTCSHARE
The remaining cables supporting a 900-ton platform hanging over America’s largest radio telescope are struggling to take the load, threatening the 1,000-ft wide reflector dish.
The Arecibo Observatory instrument, located in a national forest in Puerto Rico, was the largest radio telescope of its kind in the world until 2016 when the Chinese built a bigger one. Now the US installation’s future hangs in the balance as engineers attempt to reinforce the structure after one of the cables holding up the overhead platform fell away and tore a 100-ft-long gash in the telescope’s dish below.
…
Some of the wires in the platform’s remaining cables are already fraying, and if they snap, the structure holding the telescope’s receiver will come tumbling down with disastrous results, according to the University of Central Florida, which operates the observatory.
…