wattsupwiththat--2020-03-29--Dutch Cabinet Postpones New Climate Measures because of Virus

The Dutch government has been in the forefront for ‘ Climate Action ’ .
But a remarkable switch in policy has been caused by the economic reality resulting from ‘ the virus ’ .
Autumn 2019 the Dutch Parliament asked the Dutch government to take extra climate measures .
But in an announcement last Friday the Government stated that no new measures will be taken to diminish CO2 emissions because of the corona virus crisis .
“ Many people now have other things to do .
So do we.
” said minister Wiebes from the Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by the Dutch government is quite logical given the recent developments in the economy caused by the corona virus .
A real crises asks all energy and money to be directed to other goals than the virtual goal of ‘ trying to avoid a possible danger for the year 2100 ’ .
Even the internationally well known ‘ Urgenda Court Ruling ’ does not have any priority .
In the words of the Minister : “ The court ruling is not off the table , but there are other priorities ” .
According @ @ @ @ @ @ @ government is obliged to do more to achieve the present emission goals .
This year many more measures should be taken to reach those goals .
Economic reality however puts the climate goals aside .
One of the groups that is putting pressure on governments to do so is Clintel which stands for ‘ Climate Intelligence ’ .
Last week a letter co-signed by Professor Richard Lindzen , by The Viscount Monckton of Brenchley ( and many others ) asked world leaders to let the actual virus and economic crisis prevail over climate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Guus Berkhout , president of Clintel : “ Your Excellencies , compared to COVID-19 climate change is a non-problem !
It is based on computer models and looks into the far future .
In current health emergency , however , your attention to the peoples ’ needs is today !
Please , don ’ t continue pushing your zero carbon emission ambition in a time that the world is dealing with a deadly global crisis .
Yes , there is an emergency , but it is NOT the climate.
” A translation of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ languages .
The decision of the Dutch government to postpone new climate measures signals a fundamental change in priorities by a country that has been one of the most committed to achieving climate goals .
Economic reality will urge many governments to follow .
With regards to commenting : please adhere to the rules known for this site : quote and react , not personal .
About the author : Wim Röst studied human geography in Utrecht , the Netherlands .
The above is his personal view .
He is not connected to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by government ( s ) .

Guest opinion by Wim Röst
Introduction
The Dutch government has been in the forefront for ‘Climate Action’. But a remarkable switch in policy has been caused by the economic reality resulting from ‘the virus’.
Postponement of new climate measures
Autumn 2019 the Dutch Parliament asked the Dutch government to take extra climate measures. But in an announcement last Friday the Government stated that no new measures will be taken to diminish CO2 emissions because of the corona virus crisis.
“Many people now have other things to do. So do we.” said minister Wiebes from the Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs and Climate Policy.
This fundamental switch by the Dutch government is quite logical given the recent developments in the economy caused by the corona virus. A real crises asks all energy and money to be directed to other goals than the virtual goal of ‘trying to avoid a possible danger for the year 2100’. Even the internationally well known ‘Urgenda Court Ruling’ does not have any priority. In the words of the Minister: “The court ruling is not off the table, but there are other priorities”.
Urgenda
According to the Urgenda Court Ruling the Dutch government is obliged to do more to achieve the present emission goals. This year many more measures should be taken to reach those goals. Economic reality however puts the climate goals aside. One of the groups that is putting pressure on governments to do so is Clintel which stands for ‘Climate Intelligence’.
Clintel’s letter to World Leaders
Last week a letter co-signed by Professor Richard Lindzen, by The Viscount Monckton of Brenchley (and many others) asked world leaders to let the actual virus and economic crisis prevail over climate goals. In the words of Prof. Guus Berkhout, president of Clintel:
“Your Excellencies, compared to COVID-19 climate change is a non-problem! It is based on computer models and looks into the far future. In current health emergency, however, your attention to the peoples’ needs is today! Please, don’t continue pushing your zero carbon emission ambition in a time that the world is dealing with a deadly global crisis. Yes, there is an emergency, but it is NOT the climate.”
A translation of the open letter is available in many languages.
Conclusion
The decision of the Dutch government to postpone new climate measures signals a fundamental change in priorities by a country that has been one of the most committed to achieving climate goals.
Economic reality will urge many governments to follow.
With regards to commenting: please adhere to the rules known for this site: quote and react, not personal.
About the author: Wim Röst studied human geography in Utrecht, the Netherlands. The above is his personal view. He is not connected to firms or foundations nor is he funded by government(s).
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wattsupwiththat--2020-03-29--Bloomberg: “Professor Sees Climate Mayhem Lurking Behind Covid-19 Outbreak”

More frantic efforts by climate alarmists to leverage public concern about the Chinese Coronavirus .
Jem Bendell doesn ’ t shy away from doom and gloom .
The lockdowns and social distancing caused by the coronavirus are giving humanity a taste of the disruptions to daily life that will be caused by climate change , he said .
“ In modern industrial societies , the fallout from Covid-19 feels like a dress rehearsal for the kind of collapse that climate change threatens , ” Bendell said in an interview .
“ This crisis reveals how fragile our current way of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Cumbria social-science professor is well-known among environmentalists for his theory of “ deep adaption.
” In a 2018 paper , Bendell said that time was up for gradual measures to combat global warming .
Without an abrupt transformation of society , changes in the planet ’ s climate would bring starvation , destruction , migration , disease and war — the collapse of civilization — within a decade .
Now he ’ s focusing his scalding assessments on the parallels and links he sees between climate change and the pandemic .
Professor Bendell @ @ @ @ @ @ @ enough that he will still be around to face the music , when his alarmist predictions about the collapse of civilisation fail to manifest .
Most climate scientists play it safe , by making predictions about events which will not occur until long after they are dead , but Professor Bendell thinks all the climate collapse will happen in the next decade .
Having said that , perhaps Bendell ’ s target audience and employers won ’ t care .
Consider one of our old favourites , Cambridge Professor “ Whacky ” Wadhams @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Wadhams absurd 2016 ice free Arctic prediction , he is still listed as head of the Cambridge Polar Ocean Physics Group .

Guest essay by Eric Worrall
More frantic efforts by climate alarmists to leverage public concern about the Chinese Coronavirus.
Professor Sees Climate Mayhem Lurking Behind Covid-19 Outbreak
By Saijel Kishan 28 March 2020, 22:00 GMT+10
Jem Bendell doesn’t shy away from doom and gloom.
The lockdowns and social distancing caused by the coronavirus are giving humanity a taste of the disruptions to daily life that will be caused by climate change, he said.
“In modern industrial societies, the fallout from Covid-19 feels like a dress rehearsal for the kind of collapse that climate change threatens,” Bendell said in an interview. “This crisis reveals how fragile our current way of life has become.”
The University of Cumbria social-science professor is well-known among environmentalists for his theory of “deep adaption.” In a 2018 paper, Bendell said that time was up for gradual measures to combat global warming. Without an abrupt transformation of society, changes in the planet’s climate would bring starvation, destruction, migration, disease and war — the collapse of civilization — within a decade.
Now he’s focusing his scalding assessments on the parallels and links he sees between climate change and the pandemic.
…


wattsupwiththat--2020-03-29--National Geographic: “Why we won’t avoid a climate catastrophe”

Journalist Elizabeth Kolbert thinks a climate catastrophe is inevitable , but seems even more worried that through technology and genetic engineering humans will find a way to escape the consequences .
By not doing enough to fight global warming , we ’ re trashing the planet .
Innovation may save us , but it will not be pretty .
This story is part of the pessimistic argument for the future of the planet in our special issue on Earth Day .
Read the optimistic argument and the rest of our stories here .
“ A unique day in American history @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on the CBS Evening News on April 22 , 1970 .
The inaugural celebration of Earth Day had drawn some 20 million people to the streets—one of every 10 Americans and a way bigger crowd than the man who ’ d dreamed up the occasion , U.S. senator Gaylord Nelson , had anticipated .
Participants expressed their concern for the environment in exuberant , often idiosyncratic ways .
They sang , danced , donned gas masks , and picked up litter .
In New York City they dragged dead fish through the streets @ @ @ @ @ @ @ die-in ” at Logan International Airport .
In Philadelphia they signed an oversize , all-species “ Declaration of Interdependence.
” “ Earth Day did exactly what I had hoped for , ” Nelson , a Democrat from Wisconsin , would say later .
“ It was truly an astonishing grassroots explosion.
” I ’ m old enough to have been around for the first Earth Day , and though I have no recollection of having joined in the festivities , I ’ m very much a product of that “ unique ” moment @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
I spent the seventies protesting in the rain , trying to persuade my classmates to recycle their soda cans , wearing bell-bottoms printed with giant purple flowers , and worrying about the future of the planet .
Last year I wrote an obituary for a snail named George .
George was about an inch long , with a gray body and a shell ringed in beige and brown .
He ’ d spent his entire 14-year life quietly slithering around a terrarium in Honolulu .
Researchers with Hawaii ’ s Division of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ him a mate—George was a hermaphrodite but needed a partner to reproduce—and when they failed , they concluded he was probably the last of his kind , Achatinella apexfulva .
A few days after George ’ s death , the division posted a eulogy under the heading “ Farewell to a Beloved Snail … and a Species.
” “ The essential , interconnected web of life on Earth is getting smaller and increasingly frayed , ” said ecologist Josef Settele of Germany ’ s Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research , and a cochair @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Settele and his colleagues may be wrong , and for the same reason Downs was .
Perhaps people will perfect pollen-carrying drones .
( They ’ re already being tested . )
Perhaps we ’ ll also figure out ways to deal with rising sea levels and fiercer storms and deeper droughts .
Perhaps new , genetically engineered crops will allow us to continue to feed a growing population even as the world warms .
Perhaps we ’ ll find “ the interconnected web of life ” isn ’ t essential to human @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this may seem like a happy outcome .
To my mind , it ’ s an even scarier possibility .
It would mean we could continue indefinitely along on our current path—altering the atmosphere , draining wetlands , emptying the oceans , and clearing the skies of life .
Having freed ourselves from nature , we would find ourselves more and more alone , except perhaps for our insect drones .

Guest essay by Eric Worrall
Journalist Elizabeth Kolbert thinks a climate catastrophe is inevitable, but seems even more worried that through technology and genetic engineering humans will find a way to escape the consequences.
Why we won’t avoid a climate catastrophe
By not doing enough to fight global warming, we’re trashing the planet. Innovation may save us, but it will not be pretty.
BY ELIZABETH KOLBERT
PUBLISHED MARCH 25, 2020
This story is part of the pessimistic argument for the future of the planet in our special issue on Earth Day. Read the optimistic argument and the rest of our stories here.
“A unique day in American history is ending,” Walter Cronkite intoned on the CBS Evening News on April 22, 1970. The inaugural celebration of Earth Day had drawn some 20 million people to the streets—one of every 10 Americans and a way bigger crowd than the man who’d dreamed up the occasion, U.S. senator Gaylord Nelson, had anticipated. Participants expressed their concern for the environment in exuberant, often idiosyncratic ways. They sang, danced, donned gas masks, and picked up litter. In New York City they dragged dead fish through the streets. In Boston they staged a “die-in” at Logan International Airport. In Philadelphia they signed an oversize, all-species “Declaration of Interdependence.”
“Earth Day did exactly what I had hoped for,” Nelson, a Democrat from Wisconsin, would say later. “It was truly an astonishing grassroots explosion.”
I’m old enough to have been around for the first Earth Day, and though I have no recollection of having joined in the festivities, I’m very much a product of that “unique” moment, with its die-ins and its declarations. I spent the seventies protesting in the rain, trying to persuade my classmates to recycle their soda cans, wearing bell-bottoms printed with giant purple flowers, and worrying about the future of the planet.
…
Last year I wrote an obituary for a snail named George. George was about an inch long, with a gray body and a shell ringed in beige and brown. He’d spent his entire 14-year life quietly slithering around a terrarium in Honolulu. Researchers with Hawaii’s Division of Forestry and Wildlife had tried to find him a mate—George was a hermaphrodite but needed a partner to reproduce—and when they failed, they concluded he was probably the last of his kind, Achatinella apexfulva. A few days after George’s death, the division posted a eulogy under the heading “Farewell to a Beloved Snail … and a Species.”
…
“The essential, interconnected web of life on Earth is getting smaller and increasingly frayed,” said ecologist Josef Settele of Germany’s Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, and a cochair of the report.
Of course, Settele and his colleagues may be wrong, and for the same reason Downs was. Perhaps people will perfect pollen-carrying drones. (They’re already being tested.) Perhaps we’ll also figure out ways to deal with rising sea levels and fiercer storms and deeper droughts. Perhaps new, genetically engineered crops will allow us to continue to feed a growing population even as the world warms. Perhaps we’ll find “the interconnected web of life” isn’t essential to human existence after all.
To some, this may seem like a happy outcome. To my mind, it’s an even scarier possibility. It would mean we could continue indefinitely along on our current path—altering the atmosphere, draining wetlands, emptying the oceans, and clearing the skies of life. Having freed ourselves from nature, we would find ourselves more and more alone, except perhaps for our insect drones.


wattsupwiththat--2020-03-29--Food Prices and Ethanol Mandates

Food Prices and Ethanol Mandates

This post is a follow up to my previous post on biofuels , here we discuss the impact of biofuels on food prices in more detail .
Ethanol has been produced in large quantities in the United States for fuel since 1978 .
That was the year the Congress passed the Energy Tax Act ( Tyner 2008 ) which provided for a 40 cent per ethanol gallon exemption to the gasoline excise tax .
This tax exemption for ethanol was increased to fifty cents in 1982 .
The Alternative Motor Fuels Act was passed in 1988 .
It funded biofuels @ @ @ @ @ @ @ truck manufacturers to build vehicles that used higher ethanol blends ( E85 or 85 % ethanol ) and other biofuels .
There were other changes to the program , but ethanol , as a fuel , never really took off .
It was too expensive , too dangerous due to its low flashpoint ( only 12°C or 54°F ) , and too corrosive to metal pipes and engine parts .
Finally , the Energy Policy Act was passed in 2005 .
Ethanol and biodiesel were not doing well and could not compete with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ use .
Bush ’ s volumetric ethanol excise tax credit and mandate was passed and took effect in 2005 .
The mandate to buy ethanol increased every year until it hit the 10 % blend wall in 2011 .
This mandate caused farmers to grow corn for ethanol manufacture rather than for human or animal consumption increasing food costs .
The magnitude of the increase in food costs caused by the mandate is endlessly debated , but no one claims it is zero .
Figure 1 shows the FAO worldwide food price index @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ) prices and in inflation adjusted prices .
FAO food prices increase just as the Renewable Fuel Standard ( RFS ) mandate was put into place and it increased after that until the 10 % blend wall caused the EPA to stop increasing the mandate , even though Congress howled ( Congressional Research Service 2019 ) .
Due to more efficient cars , hybrids and electric cars the demand for gasoline , in the U.S. and Europe dropped .
Since most car manufacturers would not allow more than 10 % ethanol , less @ @ @ @ @ @ @ forced to relax the mandated volumes .
Petroleum prices also began to rise in 2005 and declined in 2015 , this played a role in increasing food prices as well , since agriculture is an energy intensive business .
World crude prices are shown in Figure 2 from ourworldindata.org .
Besides higher fuel prices and farmers switching their land from food crops to biofuel crops , other factors affecting food prices from 2005 to 2013 were greater demand in Asia and speculation in the commodity markets according to the World Bank .
Incomes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , especially in Asia , and they are buying more food , this has increased prices , just as the demand for biofuels has reduced the rate of growth in the food supply .
In addition , this period ( 2005 to 2013 ) saw some periods of drought in the U.S. and Russia , which affected corn and wheat prices .
Fuel prices affected the cost of shipping food and , to a lesser extent , the cost of growing it .
The primary impact of the biofuels explosion after 2005 , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from growing food to growing corn and soybeans for the biofuels industry .
How quickly the switch to biofuel production is reflected in the grocery store varies is explained by Corinne Alexander and Chris Hurt of Purdue University ( Alexander and Hurt 2007 ) .
Chicken , egg and beef prices responded quickly , but pork prices more slowly .
A major 2017 review of the literature concluded that food prices were affected by the use of biofuels .
Dr. Chris Malins ( Malins 2017 ) reviewed over one-hundred economic modeling studies and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ plays in food prices and concluded : Land use change ( from food farming to biofuel farming ) have caused an estimated global increase in corn and wheat prices of 1-2 % and global vegetable price increases of about 10 % ( Malins 2017 ) .
There is a broad consensus that U.S. mandated corn ethanol consumption played a major role in the global food price crisis of 2006-2008 .
However , there is no agreement on precisely how much of the 2006-2008 price increase could be attributed to the mandate .
It @ @ @ @ @ @ @ biodiesel demand caused an increase in vegetable oil prices , but again no agreement on the magnitude .
Malins ’ Table 1 provides a summary of the conclusions of 26 studies .
The studies estimate that the switch to biofuels caused from 18 % to 75 % of the food price crisis .
According to the FAO ( FAO 2011 ) prices of rice , wheat and corn rose 40 % ( adjusted for inflation ) between January 2007 and July 2008 .
These price increases occurred worldwide , regardless of where the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ occurred more rapidly during the crisis than during normal times .
The price increases were not a large problem in western countries where most people spend less than 10 % of their income on food , but in poorer countries where some spend more than 50 % of their income on food , it was a big problem .
The poorest 20 % of the population , saw a 9 % decline in their real income due to higher food prices ( FAO 2011 ) .
By 2011 , the rate of growth @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was saturated and additional mandates , although attempted , were ineffective and could not be implemented ( Congressional Research Service 2019 ) .
Biofuels in the OECD countries were 5 % of all transportation , commercial and residential energy use in 2010 , according to Exxon Outlook , and the same in 2017 .
Exxon projects that this will not change over the next twenty years , mandates or no mandates .
As I noted in a previous post , burning wood , waste and dung is practical if it is done close @ @ @ @ @ @ @ process also functions as a waste removal mechanism .
If the fuel source is close , waste and biofuels provide both incineration and power generation , but otherwise these fuels are not economically viable .
This is an industry almost totally dependent upon government subsidies and mandates .
Biofuel advocates point out that the production of biofuels results in co-products called “ distiller ’ s grains ” and “ oilseed meals.
” These products are used as livestock feed and account for about 5 % to 12 % of EU consumption .
This @ @ @ @ @ @ @ also not large enough to affect EU imports of feed grain ( Malins 2017 ) .
It is also not enough to eliminate the negative impact biofuels have on food prices .
Malins writes : There is considerable pressure being applied on the government to increase the ethanol mandate and blend more ethanol in our gasoline .
But , the technical problems with this action and the risks to engines have prevented this from happening .
The statutory volume requirements have not been met since 2013 ( Congressional Research Service 2019 ) .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ the statutory requirements and has used this authority .
Technology can not be legislated , whether it is E15 gasoline or switchgrass cellulosic ethanol .
According to the Congressional Research Service : Currently , the EPA requires that 15 billion gallons of biofuel be put in U.S. fuel , but the market can only use 14.3 billion gallons due to the blend wall and current expected gasoline sales .
The U.S. is now energy independent , thanks to shale gas and oil .
However , to make up for the extra 700 million @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the EPA , and because the mandated biofuel volume from cellulose is not available , the refining industry is importing biodiesel .
That is correct , simply to meet the mandated volumes , we are importing biodiesel that we do not need , that is why the biodiesel mandate is met .
Your government in action !
Alexander , Corinne , and Chris Hurt .
2007 .
“ Biofuels and Their Impact on Food prices.
” Bioenergy .
https : //www.extension.purdue.edu/extmedia/ID/ID-346-W.pdf .
FAO .
2011 .
Lessons from the world food crisis of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Laborde , David .
2011 .
Assessing the Land Use Change Consequences of European Biofuel Policy .
Atlass .
http : //re.indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/files/file/biofuelsreportec2011.pdf .
Persson , U. Martin .
2014 .
“ The Impact of Biofuel Demand on Agricultural Commodity Prices : A Systematic Review .
Advances in Bioenergy : The Sustainability Challenge.
” By U. M. Persson , 465-482 .
Wiley .
https : //onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/wene.155 .
Tyner , Wallace E. 2008 .
“ The US Ethanol and Biofuels Boom : Its Origins , Current Status , and Future Prospects.
” Bioscience 58 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ : //doi.org/10.1641/B580718 .
Valin , H. , Peters , van den Berg , M. D. , S. Frank , P. Havlík , N. Forsell , and C. Hamelinck .
2015 .
“ The land use change impact of biofuels consumed in the EU – Quantification of area and greenhouse gas impacts.
” International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis .
http : //pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/12310/ .

By Andy May
This post is a follow up to my previous post on biofuels, here we discuss the impact of biofuels on food prices in more detail. Ethanol has been produced in large quantities in the United States for fuel since 1978. That was the year the Congress passed the Energy Tax Act (Tyner 2008) which provided for a 40 cent per ethanol gallon exemption to the gasoline excise tax. This tax exemption for ethanol was increased to fifty cents in 1982.
The Alternative Motor Fuels Act was passed in 1988. It funded biofuels research and provided incentives to automobile and truck manufacturers to build vehicles that used higher ethanol blends (E85 or 85% ethanol) and other biofuels. There were other changes to the program, but ethanol, as a fuel, never really took off. It was too expensive, too dangerous due to its low flashpoint (only 12°C or 54°F), and too corrosive to metal pipes and engine parts.
Finally, the Energy Policy Act was passed in 2005. Ethanol and biodiesel were not doing well and could not compete with petroleum, so this Act mandated their use. Bush’s volumetric ethanol excise tax credit and mandate was passed and took effect in 2005. The mandate to buy ethanol increased every year until it hit the 10% blend wall in 2011. This mandate caused farmers to grow corn for ethanol manufacture rather than for human or animal consumption increasing food costs. The magnitude of the increase in food costs caused by the mandate is endlessly debated, but no one claims it is zero. Figure 1 shows the FAO worldwide food price index for the period in nominal (unadjusted) prices and in inflation adjusted prices.
Figure 1. FAO worldwide food prices without adjustment (nominal) and adjusted for inflation (real). Data source FAO.
FAO food prices increase just as the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) mandate was put into place and it increased after that until the 10% blend wall caused the EPA to stop increasing the mandate, even though Congress howled (Congressional Research Service 2019). Due to more efficient cars, hybrids and electric cars the demand for gasoline, in the U.S. and Europe dropped. Since most car manufacturers would not allow more than 10% ethanol, less could be used and the EPA was forced to relax the mandated volumes. Petroleum prices also began to rise in 2005 and declined in 2015, this played a role in increasing food prices as well, since agriculture is an energy intensive business. World crude prices are shown in Figure 2 from ourworldindata.org.
Figure 2. World Crude Oil prices, 2018 U.S. dollars. Data source: ourworldindata.org
Besides higher fuel prices and farmers switching their land from food crops to biofuel crops, other factors affecting food prices from 2005 to 2013 were greater demand in Asia and speculation in the commodity markets according to the World Bank. Incomes are rising rapidly in the developing world, especially in Asia, and they are buying more food, this has increased prices, just as the demand for biofuels has reduced the rate of growth in the food supply. In addition, this period (2005 to 2013) saw some periods of drought in the U.S. and Russia, which affected corn and wheat prices.
Fuel prices affected the cost of shipping food and, to a lesser extent, the cost of growing it. The primary impact of the biofuels explosion after 2005, was on supply as farmland was switched from growing food to growing corn and soybeans for the biofuels industry. How quickly the switch to biofuel production is reflected in the grocery store varies is explained by Corinne Alexander and Chris Hurt of Purdue University (Alexander and Hurt 2007). Chicken, egg and beef prices responded quickly, but pork prices more slowly.
A major 2017 review of the literature concluded that food prices were affected by the use of biofuels. Dr. Chris Malins (Malins 2017) reviewed over one-hundred economic modeling studies and twenty-four assessments of the role biofuel demand plays in food prices and concluded:
“… biofuel demand (and hence biofuel policy) results in increased food prices. The size of the impact on prices scales with the size of biofuel demand, though not necessarily linearly, and inversely with the size of the market being affected. The U.S. maize ethanol mandate is expected to impact cereals markets much more strongly than EU ethanol demand, because U.S. demand is much higher. In contrast, EU biodiesel demand is expected to have a larger impact on vegetable oil prices than EU grain ethanol demand has on grain prices, because global vegetable oil production is much less than global grain production. These general conclusions are consistent with research undertaken for the European Commission (Valin, et al. 2015), as well as numerous studies by other institutions and independent researchers.” (Malins 2017)
Land use change (from food farming to biofuel farming) have caused an estimated global increase in corn and wheat prices of 1-2% and global vegetable price increases of about 10% (Malins 2017). There is a broad consensus that U.S. mandated corn ethanol consumption played a major role in the global food price crisis of 2006-2008. However, there is no agreement on precisely how much of the 2006-2008 price increase could be attributed to the mandate. It is also generally agreed that the EU biodiesel demand caused an increase in vegetable oil prices, but again no agreement on the magnitude. Malins’ Table 1 provides a summary of the conclusions of 26 studies. The studies estimate that the switch to biofuels caused from 18% to 75% of the food price crisis.
According to the FAO (FAO 2011) prices of rice, wheat and corn rose 40% (adjusted for inflation) between January 2007 and July 2008. These price increases occurred worldwide, regardless of where the grains were grown. Transmission of prices occurred more rapidly during the crisis than during normal times. The price increases were not a large problem in western countries where most people spend less than 10% of their income on food, but in poorer countries where some spend more than 50% of their income on food, it was a big problem. The poorest 20% of the population, saw a 9% decline in their real income due to higher food prices (FAO 2011).
Post 2012
By 2011, the rate of growth of biofuels had stalled, the market was saturated and additional mandates, although attempted, were ineffective and could not be implemented (Congressional Research Service 2019). Biofuels in the OECD countries were 5% of all transportation, commercial and residential energy use in 2010, according to Exxon Outlook, and the same in 2017. Exxon projects that this will not change over the next twenty years, mandates or no mandates. As I noted in a previous post, burning wood, waste and dung is practical if it is done close to the fuel source, because this process also functions as a waste removal mechanism. If the fuel source is close, waste and biofuels provide both incineration and power generation, but otherwise these fuels are not economically viable. This is an industry almost totally dependent upon government subsidies and mandates.
Biofuel advocates point out that the production of biofuels results in co-products called “distiller’s grains” and “oilseed meals.” These products are used as livestock feed and account for about 5% to 12% of EU consumption. This is not negligible, but it is also not large enough to affect EU imports of feed grain (Malins 2017). It is also not enough to eliminate the negative impact biofuels have on food prices. Malins writes:
“Indirect land use change studies for the European Commission already include the effect of co-products in reducing the impact of biofuel policy on feed availability, as do 95% of studies identified in a comprehensive review of the field (Persson 2014). Studies of ILUC with the MIRAGE and GLOBIOM models (Laborde 2011) and (Valin, et al. 2015) find that co-product availability prevents consumption of animal feed by livestock from being reduced due to biofuel policy, but in neither study does this prevent overall human consumption of food commodities from reducing. The price increase predictions documented in this study are all made despite an explicit recognition of the importance of co-products. It is quite simply inconsistent with the evidence available to claim that biofuels increase food security due to the role of co-products – the food security impact is reduced by co-products but not eliminated.” (Malins 2017)
Conclusions
There is considerable pressure being applied on the government to increase the ethanol mandate and blend more ethanol in our gasoline. But, the technical problems with this action and the risks to engines have prevented this from happening. The statutory volume requirements have not been met since 2013 (Congressional Research Service 2019). The EPA has the authority to waive the statutory requirements and has used this authority. Technology cannot be legislated, whether it is E15 gasoline or switchgrass cellulosic ethanol. According to the Congressional Research Service:
“For instance, the 2019 targets set by EPA for total renewable fuel and for total advanced biofuel were approximately 71% and 38% of the statutory targets, respectively. A variety of factors, such as infrastructure, technology, and limited federal assistance, have led to challenges in meeting the total volume requirement established by Congress. These challenges have included a lack of cellulosic biofuel production and delays by the EPA in approving fuel pathways. There are, however, two fuel categories that consistently have met their statutory targets: conventional biofuel and biomass-based diesel. Also, since 2014, two advanced biofuel pathways—renewable compressed natural gas and renewable liquefied natural gas—have constituted the majority of the cellulosic biofuel volume target established by EPA.” (Congressional Research Service 2019)
In 2018, the EPA required that 15 billion gallons of ethanol be put in U.S. fuel, but the market could only use 14.3 billion gallons due to the blend wall and current expected gasoline sales. The U.S. is now energy independent, thanks to shale gas and oil. However, to make up for the extra 700 million gallons of ethanol required in 2018 by the EPA, and because the mandated ethanol volume from cellulose was not available, the refining industry was (and is) importing biodiesel and cellulosic ethanol. That is correct, simply to meet the mandated volumes, we are importing biodiesel and ethanol that we do not need, that is why the biodiesel mandate is met. Your government in action!
The 2020 Renewable Fuel Standard Rules include the following, by way of explanation for this regulatory insanity (BBD stands for biomass-based diesel):
“Given current and recent market conditions, the advanced biofuel requirement is driving the production and use of biodiesel and renewable diesel volumes over and above volumes required through the separate BBD standard, and we expect this to continue. While EPA continues to believe it is appropriate to maintain the opportunity for other advanced biofuels to compete for market share, the vast majority of the advanced biofuel obligations in recent years have been satisfied with BBD. Thus, after a review of implementation of the program to date and considering the statutory factors, we are establishing, in coordination with USDA and DOE, an applicable volume of BBD for 2020 of 2.43 billion gallons.”
The Congressional mandate is one billion gallons of BBD. Thus, the EPA is mandating biodiesel and ethanol imports.
Note (3/31/2020): A reader (Greg Freemeyer, see the comments below) showed me where the EPA reports biofuel imports (see here). In 2018 they report that 305,428,514 gallons of biofuels were imported. This generated 392,999,626 ethanol RIN credits. In 2019, 430,681,927 gallons were reported to have been imported, generating 521,853,172 RINs. This is a different volume than reported above, but still substantial. The remaining 200,000,000 to 300,000,000 required RINs may have been purchased from other sources.
Works Cited
Alexander, Corinne, and Chris Hurt. 2007. “Biofuels and Their Impact on Food prices.” Bioenergy. https://www.extension.purdue.edu/extmedia/ID/ID-346-W.pdf.
Congressional Research Service. 2019. “The Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS): An Overview.” https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R43325.pdf.
FAO. 2011. Lessons from the world food crisis of 2006-08. FAO. http://www.fao.org/3/i2330e/i2330e04.pdf.
Laborde, David. 2011. Assessing the Land Use Change Consequences of European Biofuel Policy. Atlass. http://re.indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/files/file/biofuelsreportec2011.pdf.
Malins, Chris. 2017. Thought for Food. London: Cerulogy. https://www.transportenvironment.org/sites/te/files/publications/Cerulogy_Thought-for-food_September2017.pdf.
Persson, U. Martin. 2014. “The Impact of Biofuel Demand on Agricultural Commodity Prices: A Systematic Review. Advances in Bioenergy: The Sustainability Challenge.” By U. M. Persson, 465-482. Wiley. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/wene.155.
Tyner, Wallace E. 2008. “The US Ethanol and Biofuels Boom: Its Origins, Current Status, and Future Prospects.” Bioscience 58 (7). doi:https://doi.org/10.1641/B580718.
Valin, H., Peters, van den Berg, M. D., S. Frank, P. Havlík, N. Forsell, and C. Hamelinck. 2015. “The land use change impact of biofuels consumed in the EU – Quantification of area and greenhouse gas impacts.” International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/12310/.
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wattsupwiththat--2020-03-29--Why the recently discovered Hiawatha Crater in Greenland is not the Younger Dryas impact.

Fire from the Sky Researchers find evidence of a cosmic impact that caused destruction of one of the world ’ s earliest human settlements By Sonia Fernandez Friday , March 6 , 2020 Before the Taqba Dam impounded the Euphrates River in northern Syria in the 1970s , an archaeological site named Abu Hureyra bore witness to the moment ancient nomadic people first settled down and started cultivating crops .
A large mound marks the settlement , which now lies under Lake Assad .
But before the lake formed , archaeologists were able to carefully extract and describe much material @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and tools — an abundance of evidence that allowed them to identify the transition to agriculture nearly 12,800 years ago .
It was one of the most significant events in our Earth ’ s cultural and environmental history .
Abu Hureyra , it turns out , has another story to tell .
Found among the cereals and grains and splashed on early building material and animal bones was meltglass , some features of which suggest it was formed at extremely high temperatures — far higher than what humans could achieve at the time @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fire , lighting or volcanism .
Abu Hureyra lies at the easternmost sector of what is known as the Younger Dryas Boundary ( YDB ) strewnfield , which encompasses about 30 other sites in the Americas , Europe and parts of the Middle East .
These sites hold evidence of massive burning , including a widespread carbon-rich “ black mat ” layer that contains millions of nanodiamonds , high concentrations of platinum and tiny metallic spherules formed at very high temperatures .
The YDB impact hypothesis has gained more traction in recent years @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a very young impact crater beneath the Hiawatha Glacier of the Greenland ice sheet , and high-temperature meltglass and other similar evidence at an archaeological site in Pilauco , located in southern Chile .
The biggest problem with Younger Dryas impact crater hunters is their insistence on describing everything as evidence for their pet hypothesis .
This is the most egregious example I have seen so far : The Younger Dryas fits right into a well-established warming and cooling cycle exhibited throughout the Northern Hemisphere during the final Pleistocene glacial stage .
Approximately @ @ @ @ @ @ @ occasionally global , temperatures sharply rose ( Dansgaard-Oeschger events ) and then rapidly cooled back to full glacial stage levels .
The cold episodes are called glacial stadials and the warm episodes are called glacial interstadials .
The final pair was the Bølling–Allerød glacial interstadial and Younger Dryas glacial stadial .
The Bølling–Allerød interstadial was particularly warm , as warm as the Little Ice Age in Central Greenland .
Setting aside the fact that the Younger Dryas stadial doesn ’ t really require a unique explanation , some of the evidence for a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ quite compelling .
The platinum anomalies ( Petaev et al.
, 2013 and Moore et al.
, 2017 ) comprise the first ( and just about only ) relatively unambiguous pieces of evidence for a significant bollide event ( s ) at , or near the transition from the Late Pleistocene Bølling–Allerød interstadial to the Younger Dryas stadial ( AKA the Younger Dryas Boundary ( YDB ) ) .
The GISP 2 anomaly ( Petaev et al.
, 2013 ) is most compelling .
The most recent paper by the intrepid crater hunters @ @ @ @ @ @ @ site at Abu Hureyra , Syria .
For anyone interested , the full text is available .
The paper cites Petaev et al.
, 2013 , regarding a YDB platinum anomaly in the GISP2 ice core , as supporting evidence , which it isn ’ t .
The paper also mentions the Hiawatha crater in Greenland .
While it doesn ’ t specifically link it to the YDB , the UCSB press release does .
The subject of this post is limited to the reasons why the GISP2 platinum anomaly and Hiawatha crater @ @ @ @ @ @ @ YDB impact hypothesis .
Petaev et al.
, 2013 comes just about as close as you can get , short of finding a crater , to unambiguous evidence of a significant YDB impact event .
Unfortunately , it contradicts one of the favored hypotheses : The bolide triggered widespread fires , triggering a sort of nuclear winter , sinking Earth into the Younger Dryas cooling period .
Until the question about the nature of Pt-rich material and the means of its delivery to the ice is resolved , an extraterrestrial source of Pt @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Pt anomaly could be explained by multiple impacts of an iron meteorite like Sikhote-Alin or Grant ( 21 , 26 ) ; the former is a large crater-forming meteorite shower .
Assuming a global anomaly , the 62.5-cm-thick ice layer with the average Pt concentration of 30 parts per trillion ( ppt ) ( Fig .
1 ) would require an iron meteorite like Sikhote-Alin of ∼0.8 km in diameter to account for the Pt budget at the YDB .
Because complete disintegration of such a large iron meteorite during its atmospheric passage @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to form a crater of a few kilometers in diameter .
No such crater at YDB has been found so far .
The main conclusion of our study is the detection of an unusual event during the Bølling-Allerød–YD transition period that resulted in deposition of a large amount of Pt to the Greenland ice .
The Pt anomaly precedes the ammonium and nitrate spike in the GISP2 ice core ( 2 ) by ∼30 y and , thus , this event is unlikely to have triggered the biomass burning and destruction thought to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ atmosphere and the Greenland ice ( 11 ) .
Although the data do not allow an unambiguous identification of the Pt source , they clearly rule out a chondritic origin of Pt .
One of the plausible sources of the Pt spike is a metal impactor with an unusual composition derived from a highly fractionated portion of a proto-planetary core .
The YDB platinum anomaly is not consistent with a cometary or chondritic airburst .
The platinum anomaly is consistent with a Pt-rich , Al-poor , Ir-poor iron meteorite , which would have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Pt anomalies have not been found in any other Greenland ice cores , nor has any ejecta material been observed in any Greenland ice cores .
What he brought home clinched the case for a grand discovery .
Hidden beneath Hiawatha is a 31-kilometer-wide impact crater , big enough to swallow Washington , D.C. , Kjær and 21 co-authors report today in a paper in Science Advances .
The crater was left when an iron asteroid 1.5 kilometers across slammed into Earth , possibly within the past 100,000 years .
Though not as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ which carved out a 200-kilometer-wide crater in Mexico about 66 million years ago , the Hiawatha impactor , too , may have left an imprint on the planet ’ s history .
The timing is still up for debate , but some researchers on the discovery team believe the asteroid struck at a crucial moment : roughly 13,000 years ago , just as the world was thawing from the last ice age .
That would mean it crashed into Earth when mammoths and other megafauna were in decline and people were spreading across @ @ @ @ @ @ @ been a spectacle for anyone within 500 kilometers .
A white fireball four times larger and three times brighter than the sun would have streaked across the sky .
If the object struck an ice sheet , it would have tunneled through to the bedrock , vaporizing water and stone alike in a flash .
The resulting explosion packed the energy of 700 1-megaton nuclear bombs , and even an observer hundreds of kilometers away would have experienced a buffeting shock wave , a monstrous thunder-clap , and hurricane-force winds .
Later , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ North America and Europe , and the released steam , a greenhouse gas , could have locally warmed Greenland , melting even more ice .
The news of the impact discovery has reawakened an old debate among scientists who study ancient climate .
A massive impact on the ice sheet would have sent meltwater pouring into the Atlantic Ocean—potentially disrupting the conveyor belt of ocean currents and causing temperatures to plunge , especially in the Northern Hemisphere .
“ What would it mean for species or life at the time ?
It ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ says Jennifer Marlon , a paleoclimatologist at Yale University .
A decade ago , a small group of scientists proposed a similar scenario .
They were trying to explain a cooling event , more than 1000 years long , called the Younger Dryas , which began 12,800 years ago , as the last ice age was ending .
Their controversial solution was to invoke an extraterrestrial agent : the impact of one or more comets .
The researchers proposed that besides changing the plumbing of the North Atlantic , the impact also ignited @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the extinction of large mammals and the disappearance of the mammoth-hunting Clovis people of North America .
The research group marshaled suggestive but inconclusive evidence , and few other scientists were convinced .
But the idea caught the public ’ s imagination despite an obvious limitation : No one could find an impact crater .
Proponents of a Younger Dryas impact now feel vindicated .
“ I ’ d unequivocally predict that this crater is the same age as the Younger Dryas , ” says James Kennett , a marine geologist at the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ one of the idea ’ s original boosters .
There is little doubt that this is an impact crater , a fairly big one .
There is also little doubt that it is , geologically speaking , fairly young , almost certainly less than 2 million years old .
There ’ s just one problem with it having occurred at the onset of the Younger Dryas : There is no evidence that the ice sheets were affected .
The full text of Kjær et al.
, 2018 is also available .
The paper @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not assert that the impact occurred at the YDB , it notes that the radar imagery below the Holocene is “ either poorly expressed or absent stratigraphic layering ” .
We can see in Figure S5 , from the Supplemental Material , that the Younger Dryas reflector is not present in at the location of the nearest ice core , Camp Century , and that the Pleistocene ice is poorly imaged .
A similar pattern is observed at the most distant ice core , DYE-3 .
Radar imaging of the Younger Dryas and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Camp Century & DYE-3 ) core locations .
These are also where the most ice has been lost since the end of the Pleistocene .
A massive impact 13-14 ka would have left a very clear mark in the Late Pleistocene-Early Holocene ice record , however there is no indication of a disruptive event in any of the ice cores , not even the nearby ( ~130 miles ) Camp Century… Radiostratigraphy ( MacGregor et al , 2015 ) indicate there there is a continuous ice column from 11.7 ka down to 29 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and the edge of the full Holocene to Last Glacial Maximum column is no different anywhere else along the northern edge of the Greenland Ice Sheet .
The closest Greenland ice core to Hiawatha , Camp Century , encountered a full section through the Last Glacial Maximum , including the Younger Dryas .
It exhibits a nearly perfect correlation to the most distant , Dye 3 .
Furthermore , the area near Hiawatha crater was covered by ice up until at least 10,000 years ago ( Dyke , 2004 ) .
There is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Greenland coastline was uncovered any earlier than about 10,000 years ago .
The Hiawatha impact most likely occurred , prior to the onset of the final Pleistocene glacial stage , possibly during the Eemian interglactial stage , more likely in an earlier warm interglacial stage .
So , while it is young , geologically speaking , the Hiawatha impact predated the Younger Dryas , most likely before the Last Glacial Maximum .
Proponents of the YDB impact theory would be better served by sticking to the less ambiguous evidence .
The fact that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ peg into a round hole ” undercuts their cause… Which is another problem , science shouldn ’ t have causes .
MacGregor , J .
A. , Fahnestock , M. A. , Catania , G. A. , Paden , J. D. , Prasad Gogineni , S. , Young , S. K. , Rybarski , S. C. , Mabrey , A. N. , Wagman , B. M. and Morlighem , M. ( 2015 ) , “ Radiostratigraphy and age structure of the Greenland Ice Sheet ” .
J. Geophys .
Res .
Earth Surf.
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ 10.1002/2014JF003215 .
Moore , A.M.T.
, Kennett , J.P. , Napier , W.M .
et al .
Evidence of Cosmic Impact at Abu Hureyra , Syria at the Younger Dryas Onset ( ~12.8 ka ) : High-temperature melting at > 2200 °C .
Sci Rep 10 , 4185 ( 2020 ) .
https : //doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-60867-w Moore , C. , West , A. , LeCompte , M. et al .
Widespread platinum anomaly documented at the Younger Dryas onset in North American sedimentary sequences .
Sci Rep 7 , 44031 ( 2017 ) .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Shichun Huang , Stein B. Jacobsen , Alan Zindler .
“ Large Pt anomaly at the onset of the Younger Dryas ” .
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Aug 2013 , 110 ( 32 ) 12917-12920 ; DOI : 10.1073/pnas.1303924110 Since Harris County ( Houston ) is now locked down like Dallas , pretty well the entire company is working from home .
Because oil companies are deemed “ critical infrastructure ” , we can go to the office if necessary , we just have to get a letter from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ authorities ” stop us and want to see our permission slips… Is this next ?
The county is ramping up drive-through testing .
It ’ s still mostly limited to people with symptoms , medical professionals , first responders and Parkland Hospital ( the county hospital ) patients and employees .
About 10 % are testing positive .
I ’ m still working on a “ when a coronavirus gets its lime ” meme .

Guest “geology lesson” by David Middleton
Fire from the Sky
Researchers find evidence of a cosmic impact that caused destruction of one of the world’s earliest human settlements
By Sonia Fernandez
Friday, March 6, 2020 Before the Taqba Dam impounded the Euphrates River in northern Syria in the 1970s, an archaeological site named Abu Hureyra bore witness to the moment ancient nomadic people first settled down and started cultivating crops. A large mound marks the settlement, which now lies under Lake Assad. But before the lake formed, archaeologists were able to carefully extract and describe much material, including parts of houses, food and tools — an abundance of evidence that allowed them to identify the transition to agriculture nearly 12,800 years ago. It was one of the most significant events in our Earth’s cultural and environmental history. Abu Hureyra, it turns out, has another story to tell. Found among the cereals and grains and splashed on early building material and animal bones was meltglass, some features of which suggest it was formed at extremely high temperatures — far higher than what humans could achieve at the time — or that could be attributed to fire, lighting or volcanism. […] Abu Hureyra lies at the easternmost sector of what is known as the Younger Dryas Boundary (YDB) strewnfield, which encompasses about 30 other sites in the Americas, Europe and parts of the Middle East. These sites hold evidence of massive burning, including a widespread carbon-rich “black mat” layer that contains millions of nanodiamonds, high concentrations of platinum and tiny metallic spherules formed at very high temperatures. The YDB impact hypothesis has gained more traction in recent years because of many new discoveries, including a very young impact crater beneath the Hiawatha Glacier of the Greenland ice sheet, and high-temperature meltglass and other similar evidence at an archaeological site in Pilauco, located in southern Chile. […] UC Santa Barbara
The biggest problem with Younger Dryas impact crater hunters is their insistence on describing everything as evidence for their pet hypothesis. This is the most egregious example I have seen so far:
The YDB impact hypothesis has gained more traction in recent years because of many new discoveries, including a very young impact crater beneath the Hiawatha Glacier of the Greenland ice sheet…
The Younger Dryas fits right into a well-established warming and cooling cycle exhibited throughout the Northern Hemisphere during the final Pleistocene glacial stage. Approximately every 1,500 years, Northern Hemisphere, occasionally global, temperatures sharply rose (Dansgaard-Oeschger events) and then rapidly cooled back to full glacial stage levels. The cold episodes are called glacial stadials and the warm episodes are called glacial interstadials. The final pair was the Bølling–Allerød glacial interstadial and Younger Dryas glacial stadial. The Bølling–Allerød interstadial was particularly warm, as warm as the Little Ice Age in Central Greenland. Setting aside the fact that the Younger Dryas stadial doesn’t really require a unique explanation, some of the evidence for a significant Younger Dryas impact event is actually quite compelling. The platinum anomalies (Petaev et al., 2013 and Moore et al., 2017) comprise the first (and just about only) relatively unambiguous pieces of evidence for a significant bollide event(s) at, or near the transition from the Late Pleistocene Bølling–Allerød interstadial to the Younger Dryas stadial (AKA the Younger Dryas Boundary (YDB)). The GISP 2 anomaly (Petaev et al., 2013) is most compelling.
The most recent paper by the intrepid crater hunters alleges YDB impact evidence from an archaeological site at Abu Hureyra, Syria. For anyone interested, the full text is available. The paper cites Petaev et al., 2013, regarding a YDB platinum anomaly in the GISP2 ice core, as supporting evidence, which it isn’t. The paper also mentions the Hiawatha crater in Greenland. While it doesn’t specifically link it to the YDB, the UCSB press release does. The subject of this post is limited to the reasons why the GISP2 platinum anomaly and Hiawatha crater do not support any version of the YDB impact hypothesis.
GISP2 YDB Platinum Anomaly
In this paper, the term “airburst/impact” refers to a collision of a cosmic body with the Earth’s atmosphere, after which numerous smaller fragments may strike the ground forming transient surface craters. These studies propose that such an impact event triggered a cascade of secondary effects, including a brief impact winter and severe Younger Dryas (YD) climate change (span: ~12,800–11,500 cal BP)1,13,14, along with possible contributions to the megafaunal extinctions and human population declines23. Moore and Kennett24 concluded that impact-triggered climate change caused the prehistoric villagers at Abu Hureyra to transition from hunting/gathering to cultivation, indicative of earliest agriculture, one of the most significant cultural transformations in human history. Moore, Andrew (not Christopher), et al., 2020
Petaev et al., 2013 comes just about as close as you can get, short of finding a crater, to unambiguous evidence of a significant YDB impact event. Unfortunately, it contradicts one of the favored hypotheses: The bolide triggered widespread fires, triggering a sort of nuclear winter, sinking Earth into the Younger Dryas cooling period.
Until the question about the nature of Pt-rich material and the means of its delivery to the ice is resolved, an extraterrestrial source of Pt appears likely. For example, the Pt anomaly could be explained by multiple impacts of an iron meteorite like Sikhote-Alin or Grant (21, 26); the former is a large crater-forming meteorite shower. Assuming a global anomaly, the 62.5-cm-thick ice layer with the average Pt concentration of 30 parts per trillion (ppt) (Fig. 1) would require an iron meteorite like Sikhote-Alin of ∼0.8 km in diameter to account for the Pt budget at the YDB. Because complete disintegration of such a large iron meteorite during its atmospheric passage seems unlikely, the event is expected to form a crater of a few kilometers in diameter. No such crater at YDB has been found so far. The main conclusion of our study is the detection of an unusual event during the Bølling-Allerød–YD transition period that resulted in deposition of a large amount of Pt to the Greenland ice. The Pt anomaly precedes the ammonium and nitrate spike in the GISP2 ice core (2) by ∼30 y and, thus, this event is unlikely to have triggered the biomass burning and destruction thought to be responsible for ammonium increase in the atmosphere and the Greenland ice (11). Although the data do not allow an unambiguous identification of the Pt source, they clearly rule out a chondritic origin of Pt. One of the plausible sources of the Pt spike is a metal impactor with an unusual composition derived from a highly fractionated portion of a proto-planetary core. Petaev et al., 2013
The YDB platinum anomaly is not consistent with a cometary or chondritic airburst. The platinum anomaly is consistent with a Pt-rich, Al-poor, Ir-poor iron meteorite, which would have left a significant crater. Furthermore, Pt anomalies have not been found in any other Greenland ice cores, nor has any ejecta material been observed in any Greenland ice cores.
So, where’s the YDB crater?
Hiawatha Crater
What he brought home clinched the case for a grand discovery. Hidden beneath Hiawatha is a 31-kilometer-wide impact crater, big enough to swallow Washington, D.C., Kjær and 21 co-authors report today in a paper in Science Advances. The crater was left when an iron asteroid 1.5 kilometers across slammed into Earth, possibly within the past 100,000 years. Though not as cataclysmic as the dinosaur-killing Chicxulub impact, which carved out a 200-kilometer-wide crater in Mexico about 66 million years ago, the Hiawatha impactor, too, may have left an imprint on the planet’s history. The timing is still up for debate, but some researchers on the discovery team believe the asteroid struck at a crucial moment: roughly 13,000 years ago, just as the world was thawing from the last ice age. That would mean it crashed into Earth when mammoths and other megafauna were in decline and people were spreading across North America. The impact would have been a spectacle for anyone within 500 kilometers. A white fireball four times larger and three times brighter than the sun would have streaked across the sky. If the object struck an ice sheet, it would have tunneled through to the bedrock, vaporizing water and stone alike in a flash. The resulting explosion packed the energy of 700 1-megaton nuclear bombs, and even an observer hundreds of kilometers away would have experienced a buffeting shock wave, a monstrous thunder-clap, and hurricane-force winds. Later, rock debris might have rained down on North America and Europe, and the released steam, a greenhouse gas, could have locally warmed Greenland, melting even more ice. The news of the impact discovery has reawakened an old debate among scientists who study ancient climate. A massive impact on the ice sheet would have sent meltwater pouring into the Atlantic Ocean—potentially disrupting the conveyor belt of ocean currents and causing temperatures to plunge, especially in the Northern Hemisphere. “What would it mean for species or life at the time? It’s a huge open question,” says Jennifer Marlon, a paleoclimatologist at Yale University. A decade ago, a small group of scientists proposed a similar scenario. They were trying to explain a cooling event, more than 1000 years long, called the Younger Dryas, which began 12,800 years ago, as the last ice age was ending. Their controversial solution was to invoke an extraterrestrial agent: the impact of one or more comets. The researchers proposed that besides changing the plumbing of the North Atlantic, the impact also ignited wildfires across two continents that led to the extinction of large mammals and the disappearance of the mammoth-hunting Clovis people of North America. The research group marshaled suggestive but inconclusive evidence, and few other scientists were convinced. But the idea caught the public’s imagination despite an obvious limitation: No one could find an impact crater. Proponents of a Younger Dryas impact now feel vindicated. “I’d unequivocally predict that this crater is the same age as the Younger Dryas,” says James Kennett, a marine geologist at the University of California, Santa Barbara, one of the idea’s original boosters. Science Magazine, 2018
There is little doubt that this is an impact crater, a fairly big one. There is also little doubt that it is, geologically speaking, fairly young, almost certainly less than 2 million years old. There’s just one problem with it having occurred at the onset of the Younger Dryas: There is no evidence that the ice sheets were affected.
Figure 1. Hiawatha crater. Science Magazine
The full text of Kjær et al., 2018 is also available. The paper is well-worth reading. While it does not assert that the impact occurred at the YDB, it notes that the radar imagery below the Holocene is “either poorly expressed or absent stratigraphic layering”. We can see in Figure S5, from the Supplemental Material, that the Younger Dryas reflector is not present in at the location of the nearest ice core, Camp Century, and that the Pleistocene ice is poorly imaged. A similar pattern is observed at the most distant ice core, DYE-3.
Figure 2. Radar images at Greenland ice core locations. The distance from Hiawatha is noted at the top of the section. Kjær et al., 2018
Radar imaging of the Younger Dryas and Pleistocene is poor at both outboard (Camp Century & DYE-3) core locations. These are also where the most ice has been lost since the end of the Pleistocene.
Figure 3. Cross section from Camp Century to DYE-3. Elevation profiles: End Pleistocene and 2000 AD. A Geological Perspective of the Greenland Ice Sheet
A massive impact 13-14 ka would have left a very clear mark in the Late Pleistocene-Early Holocene ice record, however there is no indication of a disruptive event in any of the ice cores, not even the nearby (~130 miles) Camp Century…
Figure 4. Greenland Ice Sheet Stratigraphy: Just like tying well logs to seismic data… “This image shows the layers from radargram data that were collected by an Operation Ice Bridge flight over the Greenland ice sheet on May 2, 2011. An overlay of colored lines traced along layers indicates the age of individual layers across the ice sheet. The age layers are colored by the period colour, with Holocene layers shown in green and those from the last ice age shown in blue. Labels indicate the age of various layers. The 1966 Camp Century ice core is shown on the left.” NASA
Radiostratigraphy (MacGregor et al, 2015) indicate there there is a continuous ice column from 11.7 ka down to 29 ka very close to Hiawatha crater, and the edge of the full Holocene to Last Glacial Maximum column is no different anywhere else along the northern edge of the Greenland Ice Sheet.
Figure 5. “Depth of synthetic isochrones of ages (a) 11.7 ka (beginning of the Holocene epoch), (b) 29 ka (approximately the Last Glacial Maximum; end of Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 3) [Lisiecki and Raymo, 2005], (c) 57 ka (beginning of MIS 3), and (d) 115 ka (end of the Eemian period) across the GrIS. (e–h) Uncertainty in the depth of the 11.7, 29, 57, and 115 ka isochrones, respectively.” MacGregor et al, 2015
The closest Greenland ice core to Hiawatha, Camp Century, encountered a full section through the Last Glacial Maximum, including the Younger Dryas. It exhibits a nearly perfect correlation to the most distant, Dye 3.
Figure 6. Just like sliding logs. Geochronology/Ice cores
Furthermore, the area near Hiawatha crater was covered by ice up until at least 10,000 years ago (Dyke, 2004). There is no indication that this portion of the Greenland coastline was uncovered any earlier than about 10,000 years ago. The Hiawatha impact most likely occurred, prior to the onset of the final Pleistocene glacial stage, possibly during the Eemian interglactial stage, more likely in an earlier warm interglacial stage.
So, while it is young, geologically speaking, the Hiawatha impact predated the Younger Dryas, most likely before the Last Glacial Maximum.
Proponents of the YDB impact theory would be better served by sticking to the less ambiguous evidence. The fact that they insist on hammering every “square peg into a round hole” undercuts their cause… Which is another problem, science shouldn’t have causes.
References
Kjær, Kurt, Larsen, Nicolaj, Binder, Tobias, Bjørk, Anders, Eisen, Olaf, Fahnestock, Mark & Funder, Svend & Garde, Adam & Haack, Henning & Helm, Veit, Houmark-Nielsen, Michael, Kjeldsen, Kristian, Khan, Shfaqat, Machguth, Horst, Mcdonald, Iain, Morlighem, Mathieu, Mouginot, Jeremie’ Paden, J., Waight, Tod & MacGregor, Joseph. (2018). “A large impact crater beneath Hiawatha Glacier in northwest Greenland”. Science Advances. 4. eaar8173. 10.1126/sciadv.aar8173.
MacGregor, J. A., Fahnestock, M. A., Catania, G. A., Paden, J. D., Prasad Gogineni, S., Young, S. K., Rybarski, S. C., Mabrey, A. N., Wagman, B. M. and Morlighem, M. ( 2015), “Radiostratigraphy and age structure of the Greenland Ice Sheet”. J. Geophys. Res. Earth Surf., 120: 212– 241. doi: 10.1002/2014JF003215.
Moore, A.M.T., Kennett, J.P., Napier, W.M. et al. Evidence of Cosmic Impact at Abu Hureyra, Syria at the Younger Dryas Onset (~12.8 ka): High-temperature melting at >2200 °C. Sci Rep 10, 4185 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-60867-w
Moore, C., West, A., LeCompte, M. et al. Widespread platinum anomaly documented at the Younger Dryas onset in North American sedimentary sequences. Sci Rep 7, 44031 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1038/srep44031
Petaev, Michail I., Shichun Huang, Stein B. Jacobsen, Alan Zindler. “Large Pt anomaly at the onset of the Younger Dryas”.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Aug 2013, 110 (32) 12917-12920; DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1303924110
Day 13 of America Held Hostage by ChiCom-19
Since Harris County (Houston) is now locked down like Dallas, pretty well the entire company is working from home. Because oil companies are deemed “critical infrastructure”, we can go to the office if necessary, we just have to get a letter from the company, just in case the “authorities” stop us and want to see our permission slips… Is this next?
In the meantime…
Dallas County CHICOM-19 Population Cases Deaths 2,637,772 367 7 % of population with 0.0139% 0.00027% % without 99.9861% 99.9997% % without rounded 100.0% 100.000%
The county is ramping up drive-through testing. It’s still mostly limited to people with symptoms, medical professionals, first responders and Parkland Hospital (the county hospital) patients and employees. About 10% are testing positive. I’m still working on a “when a coronavirus gets its lime” meme.
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wattsupwiththat--2020-03-28--US States Ditching Reusable Plastic Bag Incentives, to Reduce Covid-19 Contamination Risk

At least one green initiative is facing the chop , as states and retailers worried about Covid-19 re-embrace the hygiene of single use plastic shopping bags .
States that introduced “ green ” regulations that taxed single-use plastic grocery bags in an effort to eventually annihilate them are now welcoming them back as health officials caution of possible contamination with reusable bags .
Connecticut Gov .
Ned Lamont ( D ) said Thursday he was suspending the ten-cent tax on single-use plastic bags at grocery stores and other retail businesses as one of his actions “ to mitigate the spread @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is to curb the use of personal bags that could bring the virus into a store , ” reported the Journal Inquirer .
Neighboring Massachusetts Gov .
Charlie Baker ( R ) banned reusable bags in stores this week and lifted bans on plastic bags as well “ as part of his administration ’ s latest steps to limit the spread of the coronavirus , ” reported the Boston Business Journal .
“ Baker announced Wednesday that stores can not charge for either paper or plastic bags , which in some communities have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” noted the report .

Guest essay by Eric Worrall
At least one green initiative is facing the chop, as states and retailers worried about Covid-19 re-embrace the hygiene of single use plastic shopping bags.
States Welcome Back Single-Use Plastic Bags to Avoid Contamination
DR. SUSAN BERRY 27 Mar 20201834:55
States that introduced “green” regulations that taxed single-use plastic grocery bags in an effort to eventually annihilate them are now welcoming them back as health officials caution of possible contamination with reusable bags.
Connecticut Gov. Ned Lamont (D) said Thursday he was suspending the ten-cent tax on single-use plastic bags at grocery stores and other retail businesses as one of his actions “to mitigate the spread of COVID-19.”
“The latter move is to curb the use of personal bags that could bring the virus into a store,” reported the Journal Inquirer.
Neighboring Massachusetts Gov. Charlie Baker (R) banned reusable bags in stores this week and lifted bans on plastic bags as well “as part of his administration’s latest steps to limit the spread of the coronavirus,” reported the Boston Business Journal.
“Baker announced Wednesday that stores cannot charge for either paper or plastic bags, which in some communities have previously cost 5 cents per bag,” noted the report.
…


wattsupwiththat--2020-03-28--Interest in #EarthHour2020 being beaten by #Caturday and WUWT.

Tonight is EarthHour2020 .
Does anybody give a frick about it ?
Apparently not when it ’ s being beaten by silly pictures of cats on Twitter Tonight at 8:30PM your local time , you ’ ll be asked to turn off all your lights by the World Wildlife Federation to “ save the planet ” , or something .
Given what people are going through globally right now , I predict participation will be at the lowest level ever .
I mean really , who wants to add “ sitting in the dark ” to their lock-down misery ?
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ event is held annually encouraging individuals , communities , and businesses to turn off non-essential electric lights , for one hour , from 8:30 to 9:30 p.m. on a specific day towards the end of March , as a symbol of commitment to the planet .
It was started as a lights-off event in Sydney , Australia , in 2007 .
Since then , it has grown to engage more than 7,000 cities and towns across 187 countries and territories to raise awareness for energy consumption and effects on the environment .
But @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is less popular globally than WUWT by a factor of 6.26 to 1 !
!
!
( A lower number is better . )
And , neither # EarthHour or # EarthHour2020 is trending on Twitter .
It ’ s being beaten by silly pictures of cats # Caturday .
TURN ON ALL YOUR LIGHTS !
At 8:30PM local time for an hour .
And as always , a reminder that every hour in North Korea is “ Earth Hour ” .

Tonight is EarthHour2020. Does anybody give a frick about it? Apparently not when it’s being beaten by silly pictures of cats on Twitter
Tonight at 8:30PM your local time, you’ll be asked to turn off all your lights by the World Wildlife Federation to “save the planet”, or something. Given what people are going through globally right now, I predict participation will be at the lowest level ever. I mean really, who wants to add “sitting in the dark” to their lock-down misery? Read on for a surprise.
Wikipedia says:
The event is held annually encouraging individuals, communities, and businesses to turn off non-essential electric lights, for one hour, from 8:30 to 9:30 p.m. on a specific day towards the end of March, as a symbol of commitment to the planet. It was started as a lights-off event in Sydney, Australia, in 2007. Since then, it has grown to engage more than 7,000 cities and towns across 187 countries and territories to raise awareness for energy consumption and effects on the environment.
But here’s something interesting, EarthHour is less popular globally than WUWT by a factor of 6.26 to 1 !!! (A lower number is better.)
And, neither #EarthHour or #EarthHour2020 is trending on Twitter. It’s being beaten by silly pictures of cats #Caturday.
So here’s my message:
TURN ON ALL YOUR LIGHTS! At 8:30PM local time for an hour.
CELEBRATE LIGHT, HEALTH AND HAPPINESS!
And as always, a reminder that every hour in North Korea is “Earth Hour”.
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wattsupwiththat--2020-03-28--Astronaut urine to build moon bases

Astronaut urine to build moon bases

The modules that the major space agencies plan to erect on the Moon could incorporate an element contributed by the human colonizers themselves : the urea in their pee .
European researchers have found that it could be used as a plasticizer in the concrete of the structures .
NASA , the European Space Agency ( ESA ) and its Chinese counterpart plan to build moon bases in the coming decades , as part of a broader space exploration plan that will take humans to more distant destinations , such as Mars .
However , the colonization of the Moon @ @ @ @ @ @ @ radiation , extreme temperatures , meteorite bombardment and a logistical issue : how to get construction materials there , although it may not be necessary .
Transporting about 0.45 kg from the Earth to space costs about $ 10,000 , which means that building a complete module on our satellite in this way would be very expensive .
This is the reason why space agencies are thinking of using raw materials from the moon ’ s surface , or even those that astronauts themselves can provide , such as their urine .
Scientists @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and Italy , in cooperation with ESA , have conducted several experiments to verify the potential of urine urea as a plasticizer , an additive that can be incorporated into concrete to soften the initial mixture and make it more pliable before it hardens .
Details are published in the Journal of Cleaner Production .
“ To make the geopolymer concrete that will be used on the moon , the idea is to use what is there : regolith ( loose material from the moon ’ s surface ) and the water from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” explains one of the authors , Ramón Pamies , a professor at the Polytechnic University of Cartagena ( Murcia ) , where various analyses of the samples have been carried out using X-ray diffraction .
“ But moreover , ” he adds , “ with this study we have seen that a waste product , such as the urine of the personnel who occupy the moon bases , could also be used .
The two main components of this body fluid are water and urea , a molecule that allows the hydrogen @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , reduces the viscosities of many aqueous mixtures.
” Using a material developed by ESA , which is similar to moon regolith , together with urea and various plasticizers , the researchers , using a 3D printer , have manufactured various ‘ mud ’ cylinders and compared the results .
The experiments , carried out at Østfold University College ( Norway ) , revealed that the samples carrying urea supported heavy weights and remained almost stable in shape .
Once heated to 80°C , their resistance was also tested and even increased after @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Moon .
“ We have not yet investigated how the urea would be extracted from the urine , as we are assessing whether this would really be necessary , because perhaps its other components could also be used to form the geopolymer concrete , ” says one of the researchers from the Norwegian university , Anna-Lena Kjøniksen , who adds : “ The actual water in the urine could be used for the mixture , together with that which can be obtained on the Moon , or a combination of both.
” The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to find the best building material for the moon bases , where it can be mass-produced using 3D printers .
Shima Pilehvar , Marlies Arnhof , Ramon Pamies , Luca Valentini , Anna-Lena Kjøniksen .
“ Utilization of urea as an accessible superplasticizer on the moon for lunar geopolymer mixtures ” .
Journal of Cleaner Production 247 , 20 February 2020 .

FECYT – Spanish Foundation for Science and Technology
The modules that the major space agencies plan to erect on the Moon could incorporate an element contributed by the human colonizers themselves: the urea in their pee. European researchers have found that it could be used as a plasticizer in the concrete of the structures.
NASA, the European Space Agency (ESA) and its Chinese counterpart plan to build moon bases in the coming decades, as part of a broader space exploration plan that will take humans to more distant destinations, such as Mars.
However, the colonization of the Moon poses problems such as high levels of radiation, extreme temperatures, meteorite bombardment and a logistical issue: how to get construction materials there, although it may not be necessary.
Transporting about 0.45 kg from the Earth to space costs about $10,000, which means that building a complete module on our satellite in this way would be very expensive. This is the reason why space agencies are thinking of using raw materials from the moon’s surface, or even those that astronauts themselves can provide, such as their urine.
Scientists from Norway, Spain, the Netherlands and Italy, in cooperation with ESA, have conducted several experiments to verify the potential of urine urea as a plasticizer, an additive that can be incorporated into concrete to soften the initial mixture and make it more pliable before it hardens. Details are published in the Journal of Cleaner Production.
“To make the geopolymer concrete that will be used on the moon, the idea is to use what is there: regolith (loose material from the moon’s surface) and the water from the ice present in some areas,” explains one of the authors, Ramón Pamies, a professor at the Polytechnic University of Cartagena (Murcia), where various analyses of the samples have been carried out using X-ray diffraction.
“But moreover,” he adds, “with this study we have seen that a waste product, such as the urine of the personnel who occupy the moon bases, could also be used. The two main components of this body fluid are water and urea, a molecule that allows the hydrogen bonds to be broken and, therefore, reduces the viscosities of many aqueous mixtures.”
Using a material developed by ESA, which is similar to moon regolith, together with urea and various plasticizers, the researchers, using a 3D printer, have manufactured various ‘mud’ cylinders and compared the results.
The experiments, carried out at Østfold University College (Norway), revealed that the samples carrying urea supported heavy weights and remained almost stable in shape. Once heated to 80°C, their resistance was also tested and even increased after eight freeze-thaw cycles like those on the Moon.
“We have not yet investigated how the urea would be extracted from the urine, as we are assessing whether this would really be necessary, because perhaps its other components could also be used to form the geopolymer concrete,” says one of the researchers from the Norwegian university, Anna-Lena Kjøniksen, who adds: “The actual water in the urine could be used for the mixture, together with that which can be obtained on the Moon, or a combination of both.”
The scientists stress the need for further testing to find the best building material for the moon bases, where it can be mass-produced using 3D printers.
###
References:
Shima Pilehvar, Marlies Arnhof, Ramon Pamies, Luca Valentini, Anna-Lena Kjøniksen. “Utilization of urea as an accessible superplasticizer on the moon for lunar geopolymer mixtures”. Journal of Cleaner Production 247, 20 February 2020.
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wattsupwiththat--2020-03-28--Global supply chains as a way to curb carbon emissions

The coronavirus outbreak has companies from Apple to Amazon warning consumers , shareholders and governments about how factory shutdowns in China and across the globe have disrupted global supply chains .
Many goods , including cars , mobile phones and medicines , have parts or components that are imported and exported several times before they are finally made into the finished product .
But beyond their vulnerability to a global health crisis , it turns out that these complex global supply chains also have a hidden climate secret .
When a piece of a product in a global supply chain @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the carbon emissions needed to make it .
Not surprisingly , researchers call these emissions “ carbon-in-transit.
” A new publication shows that these travelling emissions account for a whopping 10 per cent of all global carbon emissions , and have tripled between 1995 and 2012 .
“ We have always been interested in the greenhouse gas emissions associated with what we consume , with little concern for the intricate ways in which the global economy provides us with the goods we consume , ” said Edgar Hertwich , a professor at the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s ( NTNU ) Industrial Ecology Programme .
“ It turns out that many countries participate in producing those goods.
” This matters as nations try to cut carbon emissions overall , whether by imposing carbon taxes in the countries where goods are produced or consumed , or by another measure called a border carbon adjustment , according to a paper that Hertwich recently published .
For example , Hertwich says , a carbon tax on imports would affect exports , because 10 per cent of global GHG emissions are exported more than @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
A border carbon adjustment could advance a further unravelling of global supply chains .
And that may not be a good thing , he says , because products that enter the global supply chain are more energy intensive than average products — but are , on average , with less emissions-intensive energy than other products .
“ Global supply chains , overall , may contribute to reducing emissions associated with the production of individual products , ” Hertwich said .
The European Union has made it clear that cutting carbon emissions are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced that the commission had adopted a proposal for the first-ever European Climate Law , with the objective for the EU to be climate neutral by 2050 .
“ The science is very clear .
Climate is part of the natural world that sustains us , ” she said in a press briefing about the proposal .
“ And this natural world is severely endangered .
It is high time to act and this Climate Law is part of the European contribution to this action.
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Davos 2020 economic summit , von der Leyen warned China that it either needs to put a price on carbon emissions at home or face the possibility of a CO2 tax on imports .
“ There is no point in only reducing greenhouse gas emissions at home , if we increase the import of CO2 from abroad , ” von der Leyen told delegates at Davos , as reported by the Financial Times .
“ It is not only a climate issue ; it is also an issue of fairness towards our @ @ @ @ @ @ @ protect them from unfair competition.
” But choosing the right way to force those cuts can be tricky , Hertwich said .
Like a dieter who wants to lose weight by tracking his daily calories , countries that want to cut their carbon emissions need to know the source of their emissions .
The challenge comes with products that are made in one country , such as China , but then are purchased and used in another country , like Norway or the United States .
If the carbon emissions from these products @ @ @ @ @ @ @ example , where should the taxes be levied — on the producer country or the consumer country ?
For example , China , the US and South Korea export the highest amount of carbon that was previously embodied in imports — this is carbon-in-transit , Hertwich said .
“ For China and the US , 20 per cent of the exported carbon was previously imported , while for Korea , that number is 40 per cent , ” he said .
So if a country — or the EU — decides to impose @ @ @ @ @ @ @ also be taxed , he pointed out .
Given the amount of carbon in transit , estimated to be five billion tons , and if the tax were to be set at US $ 30 per ton , taxes on the carbon-in-transit alone would amount to more than US $ 100 billion a year .
“ This would surely become a cause for contention ” for countries and businesses , he said .
“ If border tax adjustments do not include a tax refund for exports at the border , companies will argue @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for export production to ensure competitiveness on the global market .
If they do , the question is how to assess the emissions associated with imported intermediates or document previously paid import duties.
” Another approach is to tax carbon emissions where the products themselves are consumed — so even though your mobile phone was made in China , you as the owner would pay the carbon tax on the emissions from its production .
From a pure economic standpoint , taxing carbon emissions at the consumer level is effective , Hertwich said @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in structuring such a tax .
“ For a consumption tax , the challenge is how to assess the level of emissions which depends on the respective technologies of the many countries participating in complex global value chains , ” Hertwich said .
Another approach is to look at how components in the global supply chain are produced , and tax their major inputs , Hertwich said .
Technology exists , however , to track the origin of components .
For example , chemicals are the most involved in complex global value chains @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ICT .
The most emitting foreign inputs to the production of these products are crude petroleum , steel , chemicals and fabricated metal products .
Companies can also be compelled to report the carbon intensity of these products .
“ Taxing these inputs would do the most to clean up supply , ” he said .
“ Global supply chains have driven economic development over the past two decades and have contributed more than any development policy to lift one billion out of abject poverty .
Their benefit provides a rationale for countries @ @ @ @ @ @ @ carbon price regime.
” Reference : Edgar Hertwich .
Carbon fueling complex global value chains tripled in the period 1995-2012 .
Energy Economics .
Volume 86 , February 2020

Norwegian University of Science and Technology
The coronavirus outbreak has companies from Apple to Amazon warning consumers, shareholders and governments about how factory shutdowns in China and across the globe have disrupted global supply chains. Many goods, including cars, mobile phones and medicines, have parts or components that are imported and exported several times before they are finally made into the finished product.
But beyond their vulnerability to a global health crisis, it turns out that these complex global supply chains also have a hidden climate secret.
When a piece of a product in a global supply chain moves across borders, it travels with the carbon emissions needed to make it. Not surprisingly, researchers call these emissions “carbon-in-transit.” A new publication shows that these travelling emissions account for a whopping 10 per cent of all global carbon emissions, and have tripled between 1995 and 2012.
“We have always been interested in the greenhouse gas emissions associated with what we consume, with little concern for the intricate ways in which the global economy provides us with the goods we consume,” said Edgar Hertwich, a professor at the Norwegian University of Science and Technology’s (NTNU) Industrial Ecology Programme. “It turns out that many countries participate in producing those goods.”
This matters as nations try to cut carbon emissions overall, whether by imposing carbon taxes in the countries where goods are produced or consumed, or by another measure called a border carbon adjustment, according to a paper that Hertwich recently published.
For example, Hertwich says, a carbon tax on imports would affect exports, because 10 per cent of global GHG emissions are exported more than once and enter complex global value chains. A border carbon adjustment could advance a further unravelling of global supply chains.
And that may not be a good thing, he says, because products that enter the global supply chain are more energy intensive than average products — but are, on average, with less emissions-intensive energy than other products.
“Global supply chains, overall, may contribute to reducing emissions associated with the production of individual products,” Hertwich said.
The European Union has made it clear that cutting carbon emissions are a top priority. On 4 March, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced that the commission had adopted a proposal for the first-ever European Climate Law, with the objective for the EU to be climate neutral by 2050.
“The science is very clear. Climate is part of the natural world that sustains us,” she said in a press briefing about the proposal. “And this natural world is severely endangered. It is high time to act and this Climate Law is part of the European contribution to this action.”
And earlier this year, at the Davos 2020 economic summit, von der Leyen warned China that it either needs to put a price on carbon emissions at home or face the possibility of a CO2 tax on imports.
“There is no point in only reducing greenhouse gas emissions at home, if we increase the import of CO2 from abroad,” von der Leyen told delegates at Davos, as reported by the Financial Times. “It is not only a climate issue; it is also an issue of fairness towards our businesses and our workers. We will protect them from unfair competition.”
But choosing the right way to force those cuts can be tricky, Hertwich said.
Like a dieter who wants to lose weight by tracking his daily calories, countries that want to cut their carbon emissions need to know the source of their emissions.
The challenge comes with products that are made in one country, such as China, but then are purchased and used in another country, like Norway or the United States. If the carbon emissions from these products are going to be taxed, for example, where should the taxes be levied — on the producer country or the consumer country?
Carbon-in-transit complicates this question immensely.
For example, China, the US and South Korea export the highest amount of carbon that was previously embodied in imports — this is carbon-in-transit, Hertwich said.
“For China and the US, 20 per cent of the exported carbon was previously imported, while for Korea, that number is 40 per cent,” he said.
So if a country — or the EU — decides to impose border taxes on carbon, carbon-in-transit will also be taxed, he pointed out. Given the amount of carbon in transit, estimated to be five billion tons, and if the tax were to be set at US$ 30 per ton, taxes on the carbon-in-transit alone would amount to more than US$100 billion a year.
“This would surely become a cause for contention” for countries and businesses, he said. “If border tax adjustments do not include a tax refund for exports at the border, companies will argue against an import duty for products used for export production to ensure competitiveness on the global market. If they do, the question is how to assess the emissions associated with imported intermediates or document previously paid import duties.”
Another approach is to tax carbon emissions where the products themselves are consumed — so even though your mobile phone was made in China, you as the owner would pay the carbon tax on the emissions from its production.
From a pure economic standpoint, taxing carbon emissions at the consumer level is effective, Hertwich said, but there are still potential pitfalls in structuring such a tax.
“For a consumption tax, the challenge is how to assess the level of emissions which depends on the respective technologies of the many countries participating in complex global value chains,” Hertwich said.
Another approach is to look at how components in the global supply chain are produced, and tax their major inputs, Hertwich said. Technology exists, however, to track the origin of components.
For example, chemicals are the most involved in complex global value chains, followed by cars, machinery and ICT.
The most emitting foreign inputs to the production of these products are crude petroleum, steel, chemicals and fabricated metal products. Companies can also be compelled to report the carbon intensity of these products.
“Taxing these inputs would do the most to clean up supply,” he said. “Global supply chains have driven economic development over the past two decades and have contributed more than any development policy to lift one billion out of abject poverty. Their benefit provides a rationale for countries to work together in implementing a global carbon price regime.”
###
Reference: Edgar Hertwich. Carbon fueling complex global value chains tripled in the period 1995-2012. Energy Economics. Volume 86, February 2020
From EurekAlert!
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