wattsupwiththat--2020-03-28--FP: The Covid-19 Lockdown Will Not be Extended to Address Climate Change

According to FP it is a false hope to expect that “ similarly ambitious ” policies to the global lockdown to stop the spread of the Chinese Coronavirus will be implemented to address climate change , at least in the short term .
Sorry , but the Virus Shows Why There Won ’ t Be Global Action on Climate Change Extreme measures to fight the coronavirus have raised activists ’ hopes for similarly drastic action on global warming .
Here ’ s why they ’ re wrong .
The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted daily life , caused widespread sickness and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ careening toward a depression .
Governments have responded by taking unprecedented steps to shut down entire cities , ban travel , and isolate nations—extreme measures that are giving hope to climate activists that similarly ambitious policies might be possible to address global warming , which many consider a similar existential threat .
Yet that would be the wrong lesson to draw , as the very same barriers preventing an effective COVID-19 response continue to keep climate change action out of reach .
Like COVID-19 , climate change is the ultimate collective action problem @ @ @ @ @ @ @ equally to the problem , no matter where in the world it is produced .
The United States contributes 15 percent of emissions each year ; Europe , a meager 9 percent .
Lawmakers in Brussels may choose to impose an economic cost on Europeans by ratcheting up the pace of decarbonization , but there will be little benefit in avoided climate impacts unless others around the world do the same .
Unfortunately , too often the need for collective action is an excuse for inaction .
House Republicans often argue that if @ @ @ @ @ @ @ emissions reductions , neither should the United States .
As U.S. Sen. Lamar Alexander recently put it , “ When it comes to climate change , China , India , and developing countries are the problem.
” The second sobering lesson from COVID-19 for climate change efforts is the importance of public buy-in and education .
The problems of collective action described above are less acute when the public broadly understands the gravity of the threat .
COVID-19 may deliver some short-term climate benefits by curbing energy use , or even longer-term benefits @ @ @ @ @ @ @ goals—or if people get used to telecommuting and thus use less oil in the future .
Yet any climate benefits from the COVID-19 crisis are likely to be fleeting and negligible .
Rather , the pandemic is a reminder of just how wicked a problem climate change is because it requires collective action , public understanding and buy-in , and decarbonizing the energy mix while supporting economic growth and energy use around the world .

Guest essay by Eric Worrall
According to FP it is a false hope to expect that “similarly ambitious” policies to the global lockdown to stop the spread of the Chinese Coronavirus will be implemented to address climate change, at least in the short term.
Sorry, but the Virus Shows Why There Won’t Be Global Action on Climate Change
Extreme measures to fight the coronavirus have raised activists’ hopes for similarly drastic action on global warming. Here’s why they’re wrong.
BY JASON BORDOFF | MARCH 27, 2020, 1:51 PM
The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted daily life, caused widespread sickness and fatalities, and sent the global economy careening toward a depression. Governments have responded by taking unprecedented steps to shut down entire cities, ban travel, and isolate nations—extreme measures that are giving hope to climate activists that similarly ambitious policies might be possible to address global warming, which many consider a similar existential threat. Yet that would be the wrong lesson to draw, as the very same barriers preventing an effective COVID-19 response continue to keep climate change action out of reach.
…
Like COVID-19, climate change is the ultimate collective action problem. Each ton of greenhouse gas contributes equally to the problem, no matter where in the world it is produced. The United States contributes 15 percent of emissions each year; Europe, a meager 9 percent. Lawmakers in Brussels may choose to impose an economic cost on Europeans by ratcheting up the pace of decarbonization, but there will be little benefit in avoided climate impacts unless others around the world do the same.
…
Unfortunately, too often the need for collective action is an excuse for inaction. House Republicans often argue that if China won’t commit to major emissions reductions, neither should the United States. As U.S. Sen. Lamar Alexander recently put it, “When it comes to climate change, China, India, and developing countries are the problem.”
…
The second sobering lesson from COVID-19 for climate change efforts is the importance of public buy-in and education. The problems of collective action described above are less acute when the public broadly understands the gravity of the threat.
…
COVID-19 may deliver some short-term climate benefits by curbing energy use, or even longer-term benefits if economic stimulus is linked to climate goals—or if people get used to telecommuting and thus use less oil in the future.
Yet any climate benefits from the COVID-19 crisis are likely to be fleeting and negligible. Rather, the pandemic is a reminder of just how wicked a problem climate change is because it requires collective action, public understanding and buy-in, and decarbonizing the energy mix while supporting economic growth and energy use around the world.


wattsupwiththat--2020-03-27--Coronavirus-hit carmakers urge EU to pull legislative handbrake

The car industry has warned Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and climate chief Frans Timmermans that the coronavirus will disrupt plans to meet EU standards .
[ Photo : European Commission ] Europe ’ s largest auto manufacturers have argued that the coronavirus outbreak will limit their ability to comply with EU rules aimed at cleaning up the sector ’ s carbon footprint .
The European Automobile Manufacturers Association ( ACEA ) – which represents the likes of Ford , Honda and Volkswagen – said in a letter addressed to six European Commissioners on Wednesday ( 25 March ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ like this [ coronavirus ] ” .
ACEA and a number of groups linked to the industry warned that a lack of production , development and testing , caused by factory closures and disrupted supply chains , will hurt the sector ’ s timetable .
“ This upsets the plans we had made to prepare ourselves for complying with existing and future EU laws and regulations within the applicable deadlines set in these regulations , ” the letter reads .
It adds that “ we believe therefore that some adjustment would need to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ laws ” but insists that carmakers do not seek to undermine the objectives of the rules , such as tackling climate change .
The letter does not specify which EU benchmarks need to be adjusted but EURACTIV understands that CO2 standards for 2020 and 2030 are top of the sector ’ s list .
While European carmakers cry for help , environmentalists say public money aimed at helping the automotive industry recover from the COVID-19 crisis must be future-proof and geared towards green technologies .
A fleet-average limit of 95 grammes of CO2 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in fully in January 2021 but has already been partly in force since the beginning of this year .
Some carmakers like the Peugeot group claim they have started to meet the target in Quarter 1 .
Mobility analysts point out that rock-bottom sales figures caused by the virus outbreak will not necessarily affect compliance because the rules are based on average emissions .
In fact , some forecasters say an economic downturn could help carmakers in this regard because motorists tend to choose smaller , compact cars – where there is more @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are financially tough .
Julia Poliscanova , a clean vehicles expert at NGO Transport & Environment , said that the type of car sold is paramount and that any post-virus stimulus measures “ should be targeted at zero-emissions cars ” .
VW , the world ’ s largest marque , has shuttered much of its European production because of the outbreak ’ s impact on business but still plans to debut two new all-electric cars – the ID:3 and ID:4 – later this year .
The EU ’ s 2030 legislation is more @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Commission had already suggested an early review of the rules next year under its Green Deal , rather than the previously planned 2023 stocktake .
Stricter air pollutant standards for combustion engines will also be assessed and the EU executive aims to have enough rules in place in 2025 “ to ensure a clear pathway towards zero-emission mobility ” , according to a high-ranking official .

From EURACTIV
By Sam Morgan | EURACTIV.com
The car industry has warned Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and climate chief Frans Timmermans that the coronavirus will disrupt plans to meet EU standards. [Photo: European Commission]
Europe’s largest auto manufacturers have argued that the coronavirus outbreak will limit their ability to comply with EU rules aimed at cleaning up the sector’s carbon footprint.
The European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA) – which represents the likes of Ford, Honda and Volkswagen – said in a letter addressed to six European Commissioners on Wednesday (25 March) that “we have never experienced anything like this [coronavirus]”.
ACEA and a number of groups linked to the industry warned that a lack of production, development and testing, caused by factory closures and disrupted supply chains, will hurt the sector’s timetable.
“This upsets the plans we had made to prepare ourselves for complying with existing and future EU laws and regulations within the applicable deadlines set in these regulations,” the letter reads.
It adds that “we believe therefore that some adjustment would need to be made to the timing of these laws” but insists that carmakers do not seek to undermine the objectives of the rules, such as tackling climate change.
The letter does not specify which EU benchmarks need to be adjusted but EURACTIV understands that CO2 standards for 2020 and 2030 are top of the sector’s list.
While European carmakers cry for help, environmentalists say public money aimed at helping the automotive industry recover from the COVID-19 crisis must be future-proof and geared towards green technologies.
A fleet-average limit of 95 grammes of CO2 per kilometre for all new vehicles kicks in fully in January 2021 but has already been partly in force since the beginning of this year. Some carmakers like the Peugeot group claim they have started to meet the target in Quarter 1.
Mobility analysts point out that rock-bottom sales figures caused by the virus outbreak will not necessarily affect compliance because the rules are based on average emissions.
In fact, some forecasters say an economic downturn could help carmakers in this regard because motorists tend to choose smaller, compact cars – where there is more choice of electric vehicles – when times are financially tough.
Julia Poliscanova, a clean vehicles expert at NGO Transport & Environment, said that the type of car sold is paramount and that any post-virus stimulus measures “should be targeted at zero-emissions cars”.
VW, the world’s largest marque, has shuttered much of its European production because of the outbreak’s impact on business but still plans to debut two new all-electric cars – the ID:3 and ID:4 – later this year.
The EU’s 2030 legislation is more of a concern for carmakers as the Commission had already suggested an early review of the rules next year under its Green Deal, rather than the previously planned 2023 stocktake.
Stricter air pollutant standards for combustion engines will also be assessed and the EU executive aims to have enough rules in place in 2025 “to ensure a clear pathway towards zero-emission mobility”, according to a high-ranking official.
Full article here.
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wattsupwiththat--2020-03-30--Monday Mirthiness – double feature.

Monday Mirthiness – double feature.

There ’ s a relatively famous cartoon about climate that gets used on social media a lot , drawn by @ @ @ @ @ ll likely recognize it .
Josh has given it a “ treatment ” :

There’s a relatively famous cartoon about climate that gets used on social media a lot, drawn by Joel Pett. You’ll likely recognize it.
Josh has given it a “treatment”:
In other news:
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wattsupwiththat--2020-03-31--Svalbard finds tranquilizing & removing problem polar bears comes with risks to bears

Posted on March 29 , 2020 | Comments Off on Svalbard finds tranquilizing & removing problem polar bears comes with risks to bears In Svalbard , Norway , it is routine practice to chase polar bears away from settlements with snow machines and helicopters , then tranquilize and relocate them if necessary but in late January this approach led to the death of a young male bear .
Necropsy results released 26 March 2020 revealed that the two year old bear , who had wandered into and around Longyearbyen multiple times in late January , was captured after a prolonged @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was flown north to Nordaustlandet ( see map below ) from circulatory failure due to administering anesthesia after the prolonged stress of being chased .
Video here of the bear being chased out of Longyearbyen by helicopter ( photo above is of the New Year ’ s bear ) .
Longyearbyen has had more problems than usual with polar bears this winter due to the unusually extensive sea ice off the west coast of Svalbard .
Polar bears are particularly dangerous in winter and with the abundance of bears in recent years many @ @ @ @ @ @ @ having to find their own solutions .
In the wee hours of New Years Day 2020 a fat Svalbard polar bear was shot because of persistent visits to downtown Longyearbyen and the public was outraged .
A few weeks later a bear attacked a dogsled loaded with tourists .
The death of the young bear in late January in the course of removing it ( rather than shooting it ) is a reminder that tranquilizing a polar bear , especially after a prolonged chase , can be as lethal as shooting it .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ my bold ) : “ A two-year-old polar bear sedated and flown by helicopter away from Longyearbyen in late January because of repeated visits in/near town died during the flight of “ circulatory failure/shock due to the combination of prolonged chasing , stress and drug anesthesia , ” the Norwegian Polar Institute declared in a statement Thursday following an autopsy… The final encounter with the bear occurred at about 5:30 p.m. Jan. 30 at Vestpynten , about five kilometers outside Longyearbyen , as the animal was heading toward town .
Officials used one @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to chase the bear into Adventfjorden , then stunned it with the intention of flying it to Nordaustlandet… Jon Aars , a polar bear expert for the Norwegian Polar Institute who has spent many years on research-related projects in Svalbard , said in an institute press release the bear ’ s behavior before being sedated suggests factors besides the drug that may have been a factor .
“ The bear had first been chased over time by helicopter and snowmobiles before being immobilized from the helicopter in the next round ( after a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
“ Before immobilization , it did not run away from the helicopter , as a younger bear would normally do .
This may indicate that the bear has been exposed to hunting for a long time and/or under too-high speed in connection with its tolerance.
” “ Polar bears are well insulated and are therefore sensitive to being hunted so that they must run or walk fast for a long time , compared to what is natural .
There is a balance between what will be required pursuit speed to ensure that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ away from settlements , and at the same time what is safe when it comes to its health.
” The autopsy shows the polar bear was healthy , with no injuries or signs of illness , although it ’ s size “ was typical of a one-year-old.
” “ This may also have been a two-year-old who was unusually small , ” Aars said .
“ Although it was supposed to be a two-year-old male , it has escaped from its mother several months before the normal age .
The fact that young @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not uncommon , but the survival of single cubs is very low.
” The governor ’ s office , in its statement , notes they are reviewing the incident and chase/sedation procedures to avoid similar situation in the future , in consultation with experts from the polar institute .
“ This episode shows the importance of having a written protocol that has specific frameworks for chasing polar bears from helicopter or snowmobile , including speed and time for hunting , ” Aars said .
“ The governor is already in a process here @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Canadian administration will be used as the basis , in combination with advice from the polar institute .
The desire is to best safeguard safety and health both for people in Svalbard and for the polar bears there .
”

From Polar Bear Science
Posted on March 29, 2020 | Comments Off on Svalbard finds tranquilizing & removing problem polar bears comes with risks to bears
In Svalbard, Norway, it is routine practice to chase polar bears away from settlements with snow machines and helicopters, then tranquilize and relocate them if necessary but in late January this approach led to the death of a young male bear.
Necropsy results released 26 March 2020 revealed that the two year old bear, who had wandered into and around Longyearbyen multiple times in late January, was captured after a prolonged helicopter chase but died enroute as it was flown north to Nordaustlandet (see map below) from circulatory failure due to administering anesthesia after the prolonged stress of being chased.
Video here of the bear being chased out of Longyearbyen by helicopter (photo above is of the New Year’s bear). Longyearbyen has had more problems than usual with polar bears this winter due to the unusually extensive sea ice off the west coast of Svalbard. Polar bears are particularly dangerous in winter and with the abundance of bears in recent years many Arctic communities are at risk with each having to find their own solutions.
In the wee hours of New Years Day 2020 a fat Svalbard polar bear was shot because of persistent visits to downtown Longyearbyen and the public was outraged. A few weeks later a bear attacked a dogsled loaded with tourists. The death of the young bear in late January in the course of removing it (rather than shooting it) is a reminder that tranquilizing a polar bear, especially after a prolonged chase, can be as lethal as shooting it.
From this 26 March 2020 report (my bold):
“A two-year-old polar bear sedated and flown by helicopter away from Longyearbyen in late January because of repeated visits in/near town died during the flight of “circulatory failure/shock due to the combination of prolonged chasing, stress and drug anesthesia,” the Norwegian Polar Institute declared in a statement Thursday following an autopsy… The final encounter with the bear occurred at about 5:30 p.m. Jan. 30 at Vestpynten, about five kilometers outside Longyearbyen, as the animal was heading toward town. Officials used one of the governor’s rescue helicopters to chase the bear into Adventfjorden, then stunned it with the intention of flying it to Nordaustlandet… Jon Aars, a polar bear expert for the Norwegian Polar Institute who has spent many years on research-related projects in Svalbard, said in an institute press release the bear’s behavior before being sedated suggests factors besides the drug that may have been a factor. “The bear had first been chased over time by helicopter and snowmobiles before being immobilized from the helicopter in the next round (after a shorter break),” he said. “Before immobilization, it did not run away from the helicopter, as a younger bear would normally do. This may indicate that the bear has been exposed to hunting for a long time and/or under too-high speed in connection with its tolerance.” “Polar bears are well insulated and are therefore sensitive to being hunted so that they must run or walk fast for a long time, compared to what is natural. There is a balance between what will be required pursuit speed to ensure that a polar bear can safely be moved away from settlements, and at the same time what is safe when it comes to its health.” The autopsy shows the polar bear was healthy, with no injuries or signs of illness, although it’s size “was typical of a one-year-old.” “This may also have been a two-year-old who was unusually small,” Aars said. “Although it was supposed to be a two-year-old male, it has escaped from its mother several months before the normal age. The fact that young cubs get away from mothers early is not uncommon, but the survival of single cubs is very low.” The governor’s office, in its statement, notes they are reviewing the incident and chase/sedation procedures to avoid similar situation in the future, in consultation with experts from the polar institute. “This episode shows the importance of having a written protocol that has specific frameworks for chasing polar bears from helicopter or snowmobile, including speed and time for hunting,” Aars said. “The governor is already in a process here where a similar protocol used by the Canadian administration will be used as the basis, in combination with advice from the polar institute. The desire is to best safeguard safety and health both for people in Svalbard and for the polar bears there.”
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wattsupwiththat--2020-03-31--Futile Fussings – a history of graphical failure from cattle to #coronavirus

No planning is likely possible without calculations of what the future may hold , but such calculations are fraught with uncertainty when they also involve exponential processes .
Indeed , as the author of one chapter in a recent book [ 1 ] states : “ One characteristic of an exponential growth process that humans find it really difficult to comprehend is how fast such a process actually is .
Our daily experiences do not prepare us to judge such a process accurately , or to make sensible predictions.
” [ emphasis is mine . ]
Quests to reveal a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ what people guess to be exponential processes , run through many themes here at WUWT — future climate , energy demand , economics , epidemics .
This guest contribution takes a selected look at exponential growth .
Two examples are historical , and perhaps obscure , but pertinent .
The third one , which comprises the bulk of this essay , is an examination of R0 , which dominates the present imagination .
Cattle arrived on the Northern Plains of the U.S. frontier first in the mid-1860s .
The industry was infested with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and such , who promoted using tales of how to get rich on the plains to Eastern and European investors .
Some early investors made money selling to bigger cattle corporations .
But the industry was based on cattle herds rather than titles to real property , and cattle counts were notoriously difficult to carry out .
Thus , much of the promotion and accounting became based on “ book ” counts .
These were not credible , but had the effect of a stampede to the plains financed by people who little @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Figure 1 shows an actual book count against a Fibonacci series representing a hypothetical rabbits .
[ 2 ] The exponential behavior of the book count is obvious .
The hard winter of 1886-1887 , which was an instance of weather not climate change , wiped out many live cattle , but it wiped out many larger book counts .
It provided an opportunity for the range managers to adjust plainly inaccurate inventories and save face at the same time .
The story at the present day , for the few who know @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is of millions of cattle perishing in blizzards .
It is much more acceptable to be bankrupted by weather than by foolish belief in an exponent .
Is there a modern equivalent ?
Well , the strangely smooth curve of Chinese deaths from COVID19 looks like one .
It resembles a calculated curve with a certain goal in mind , rather than a measured curve with all the wiggles back and forth like the comparison curves from other countries .
Electric energy demand grew at an exponential rate after WWII , especially during @ @ @ @ @ @ @ into every conceivable corner of North America , and new uses , such as the mercury vapor light , expanded into every conceivable market .
The near perfect fit of geometrical growth of 7.13 % per annum to electrical demand in 1960-1972 as Figure 2 shows , led to wild predictions of future demand and its consequences .
A simple projection of constant geometrical growth ( Figure 3 ) arrives at a staggering demand of 12 TWhr in year 2000 , and one might be tempted to dismiss it .
However , 1972 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by NSF , produced a “ consensus ” estimate of 10.25 TWhr , which is not much lower .
[ 3 ] These estimates were driven by exponential growth in usage and population .
What occurred in the 1970s was a constant drumbeat of future shortages , the decimation of free flowing rivers , the needed changes to society and the economy , the need for government mandates because government is the only institution big enough to deal with the crisis .
Untold amounts of taxpayer and private money poured into schemes long @ @ @ @ @ @ @ should have been ( geothermal ) .
The crisis prompted everyone to push their preferred hobby horse .
Sounds familiar .
What actually happened post 1970s ?
Actual electrical energy consumption never reached 40 % of these projections .
Figure 4 shows electric consumption to the present time along with the supply available from selected sources .
Note the supply from petroleum .
It provided a large source of electrical energy pre-1973 .
However , the two oil price shocks ( 1973 and 1979 ) had the effect of immediately putting a halt @ @ @ @ @ @ @ generate electricity and diminished it each time .
[ 4 ] People may not comprehend the speed of exponentials , but they respond quickly to prices .
More interesting still is that not only did demand not grow exponentially after 1972 , but that post 2008 it hasn ’ t grown at all , as Figure 4 also shows .
We appear to have reached a point where slowing economic growth has enabled innovation such as outsourcing , container ships , LED light bulbs and myriad other things to provide increased standard of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Can it continue ?
Time will tell .
In times of crisis , real or imagined , people become fixated on certain technical measures or parameters of the problem , which become something like fetishes .
The mean temperature of the Earth , the level of CO2 , or its rate of production all play such a role in climate change .
The parameter R0 , the basic reproductive ratio , plays such a role in the present COVID19 crisis .
Let ’ s explain what R0 describes , and what it has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the present pandemic .
The best way to explain R0 is through a simple model of an epidemic involving three populations : X , the population of people who are susceptible to a disease but who are presently not infected ; Y , the population of infected ( and infectious ) people ; and Z , the population who have recovered , and are not for the present time likely to fall back into population Y .
Many factors affect population X — births , deaths , migration , and so forth .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ an epidemic we might consider only becoming infected and transitioning to population Y as having any pertinence .
People often model the factor describing this transition as a term like -BXY .
The product of populations ( XY ) indicates something about the probability of an X person encountering an infected one ; B is a factor of transmissibility describing the probability that the encounter between an X and a Y results in X becoming infected .
It should be obvious that in the short term any person leaving the group of Xs @ @ @ @ @ @ @ So , the equation describing the rate of change of Y contains the term +BXY .
However , the change of Y also depends on the rate at which the infected become well , and transition to the group of Zs — a rate we call U , and the rate at which infected people die and vanish from the model altogether — a rate we call V. Thus our differential equation for Y is Someone familiar with differential equations will recognize the factor ( BX – ( U+V ) ) as a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tends to make this time constant positive , and results in a population of Y which grows exponentially ; large ( U+V ) tends to push it toward negative values which would result in exponential decay .
People don ’ t like to deal with summations of factors in a time constant , and in the case of epidemics what people have done is to turn the time constant into a ratio , with those factors tending to make it positive in the numerator and those making it negative in the denominator .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ = BX/ ( U+V ) ref .
[ 5 ] There is a tendency , apparently even among the medical community , to think of R0 as a sort of time constant , but it is not .
It is a dimensionless measure more akin to what engineers would call a figure of merit .
There is also a tendency to think of it as intrinsically a function of the disease itself .
It is not .
Let ’ s discuss each factor in turn and explain what about each factor is important @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has to do not only with how easily a disease intrinsically jumps from person to person ( like measles with a large value of B ) , but also has to do with cultural and social factors of the Xs .
Touchy-feely sorts of societies will make B larger and push R0 to a value larger than 1.0 ; other societies have more intrinsic distance and push B toward smaller values .
All sorts of strategies to increase social distance — lockdowns , isolation of the vulnerable , isolation of the infected and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ B smaller in value .
X , the population of unaffected people , doesn ’ t necessarily include the entire population .
There are people with intrinsic immunity to the disease .
For example , Willis ’ s contribution from some time ago pointed out that on the Grand Princess not everyone who was exposed became infected .
Perhaps only 20-40 % did .
[ 6 ] Obviously X depends on the age distribution and also on the distribution of other morbidities in a population .
A common strategy to reduce X is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with the virulence of the disease , but also has to do with population characteristics such as age distribution and other morbidities .
Within my home state we have an unusually large fraction of the known infected who have recovered quickly .
It suggests a lower R0 than places displaying long convalescent periods .
Does this tell us anything valuable about COVID19 , or does it simply reflect differences in various state departments of health making assessments of recovery ?
One strategy toward boosting U is to employ treatments such as what New @ @ @ @ @ @ @ What is important about R0 ?
R0 is not a constant .
As a disease progresses through a population X becomes smaller and tends to push R0 to smaller values .
Eventually it becomes small enough that R0 falls to a value less than one and the epidemic peters out .
This is the principal factor that converts the initial exponential growth of an epidemic to a logistic sort of curve toward its conclusion .
Also , just like example about energy , people change their behavior in a time of stress .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ hygiene — factors which improve B .
Also , different ethnic groups and different parts of the U.S. will display different values of R0 .
These combined factors probably explain the wiggly behavior of the various graphs on the Daily Coronavirus Graph page .
Having an accurate estimate of R0 , especially early in an epidemic cycle , would be very useful for public health policies .
Here are the hurdles one has to clear to get an accurate value : First , the most valuable estimate of R0 to get ahead of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the epidemic .
Without experience to draw upon a person has to use observations .
The only population leading to a useful estimate of R0 is the infected , Y .
We have no idea how this population is growing at present relative to X .
Second , I have commented elsewhere about individuals local to me who are not only included in the “ cases ” of two neighboring states ( double counted ) , but who may have been placed within the data at the wrong time of exposure and infection @ @ @ @ @ @ @ when there are very few infected individuals .
Such estimates are very sensitive to errors of observation .
Observations placed erroneously too far along in the epidemic will have the effect of erroneously making R0 too large ; while those placed erroneously too early will make R0 appear , erroneously , too small .
Because all of the factors involved in R0 keep changing with time , one has to keep collecting timely data for evaluation about effectiveness of strategies .
Thus one is always presented with the problem of limited individuals who @ @ @ @ @ @ @ which individuals should be counted , and exactly where to place them in sequence .
At no time does estimating R0 become simple .
Third , because R0 is not a time constant , but rather a dimensionless figure of merit , the pertinent observations for its estimate are of the growth generation to generation — that is , growth of Y in the chain of transmission from person to person .
In my state public health officials estimate that more than 60 % of the infected can explain where they were infected @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be tempered with knowledge of how faulty people ’ s memories are .
One MD has spoken elsewhere about observations , such as the spread through the call center at Daegu , South Korea , which suggest an R0 well below 1.0 .
However much his number may pertain to the special case of this particular call center , the value of R0 can not be below 1.0 generally .
If it were , the plainly obvious growing epidemic across the U.S. at present would require an utterly improbable set of initial conditions @ @ @ @ @ @ @ R0 ( 2.0 to 2.6 ) used by Neil Ferguson , along with estimates of generation duration and other parameters , propelled initial panic .
One can tell from the press conferences that Dr. Fauci , Trump ’ s principal advisor , is still highly influenced by these early estimates.These were guesses , albeit educated ones .
Apparently Ferguson is stepping back from these initial estimates .
This is just my opinion , but it appears that we , across the Western world , were unprepared to gather the sort of data early @ @ @ @ @ @ @ an actionable time — for example rather than daily counts of infections we need counts by generation of spread , and estimates of uncertainty .
Estimates of deaths in Britain from 20,000 to 500,000 do nothing to aid in policy prescriptions .
There is no doubt that we will survive this pandemic , but at great cost .
A famous quotation seems apropo : After this crisis has passed we really need to have a sober evaluation of strategies versus outcome , and decide whether we might have done better .
We should @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Nic Lewis ’ s contribution is an example of sober analysis ; so is Alec Rawls ’ s .
We do not need a second such victory over exponents .
[ 1 ] Philip Dutre , Thinking and Conscious Machines ?
, in “ A Truly Golden Handbook ” , Ed .
by Veerle Achten , Geert Bouckaert , Erik Schokkaert , Leuven University Press , 2017 .
Throughout Fulton ’ s early chapters quotations refer to the book counts as “ arithmetic progressions ” when in fact they are geometrical .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ Strahorn , one time superintendent of the Union Pacific Railroad .
[ 3 ] This projection , along with the projections of the Federal Power Commission and National Petroleum Council would be featured in Congressional testimony in May 1972 and in a companion paper in ( Chapman , et .
al.
, Science , v.78 , p.703-708,1972 ) as Table 1 .
While the authors stated that these projections might prove too high , they emphasized that “ …to the extent that past population growth rates continue , the projections of Table 1 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ electrical consumption data are from EIA spreadsheets .
[ 5 ] Martin Nowak , Evolutionary Dynamics , Belknap/Harvard Press , 2006 .
Nowak ’ s definition is not exactly like mine but is functionally the same .

Guest Post by Kevin Kilty
No planning is likely possible without calculations of what the future may hold, but such calculations are fraught with uncertainty when they also involve exponential processes. Indeed, as the author of one chapter in a recent book [1] states:
“One characteristic of an exponential growth process that humans find it really difficult to comprehend is how fast such a process actually is. Our daily experiences do not prepare us to judge such a process accurately, or to make sensible predictions.” [emphasis is mine.]
Quests to reveal a future governed by exponential processes, or what people guess to be exponential processes, run through many themes here at WUWT — future climate, energy demand, economics, epidemics. This guest contribution takes a selected look at exponential growth. Two examples are historical, and perhaps obscure, but pertinent. The third one, which comprises the bulk of this essay, is an examination of R0, which dominates the present imagination.
Failure on the Plains
Cattle arrived on the Northern Plains of the U.S. frontier first in the mid-1860s. The industry was infested with promoters, people with interests in railroads and such, who promoted using tales of how to get rich on the plains to Eastern and European investors. Some early investors made money selling to bigger cattle corporations. But the industry was based on cattle herds rather than titles to real property, and cattle counts were notoriously difficult to carry out. Thus, much of the promotion and accounting became based on “book” counts. These were not credible, but had the effect of a stampede to the plains financed by people who little understood the business or its risks.
Figure 1 shows an actual book count against a Fibonacci series representing a hypothetical rabbits.[2] The exponential behavior of the book count is obvious.
Figure 1.
The hard winter of 1886-1887, which was an instance of weather not climate change, wiped out many live cattle, but it wiped out many larger book counts. It provided an opportunity for the range managers to adjust plainly inaccurate inventories and save face at the same time. The story at the present day, for the few who know anything of the story at all, is of millions of cattle perishing in blizzards. It is much more acceptable to be bankrupted by weather than by foolish belief in an exponent.
Is there a modern equivalent? Well, the strangely smooth curve of Chinese deaths from COVID19 looks like one. It resembles a calculated curve with a certain goal in mind, rather than a measured curve with all the wiggles back and forth like the comparison curves from other countries.
Projection of Electric Energy Demand
Electric energy demand grew at an exponential rate after WWII, especially during the 1960s, when the grid expanded into every conceivable corner of North America, and new uses, such as the mercury vapor light, expanded into every conceivable market. The near perfect fit of geometrical growth of 7.13% per annum to electrical demand in 1960-1972 as Figure 2 shows, led to wild predictions of future demand and its consequences. A simple projection of constant geometrical growth (Figure 3) arrives at a staggering demand of 12 TWhr in year 2000, and one might be tempted to dismiss it. However, 1972 a workshop held at Cornell, sponsored by NSF, produced a “consensus” estimate of 10.25 TWhr, which is not much lower. [3] These estimates were driven by exponential growth in usage and population.
Figure 2.
What occurred in the 1970s was a constant drumbeat of future shortages, the decimation of free flowing rivers, the needed changes to society and the economy, the need for government mandates because government is the only institution big enough to deal with the crisis. Untold amounts of taxpayer and private money poured into schemes long forgotten (magnetohydrodynamics) or schemes that should have been (geothermal). The crisis prompted everyone to push their preferred hobby horse. Sounds familiar.
Figure 3.
What actually happened post 1970s? Actual electrical energy consumption never reached 40% of these projections. Figure 4 shows electric consumption to the present time along with the supply available from selected sources. Note the supply from petroleum. It provided a large source of electrical energy pre-1973. However, the two oil price shocks (1973 and 1979) had the effect of immediately putting a halt to the growing use of petroleum to generate electricity and diminished it each time.[4] People may not comprehend the speed of exponentials, but they respond quickly to prices.
More interesting still is that not only did demand not grow exponentially after 1972, but that post 2008 it hasn’t grown at all, as Figure 4 also shows. We appear to have reached a point where slowing economic growth has enabled innovation such as outsourcing, container ships, LED light bulbs and myriad other things to provide increased standard of living without use of more energy. Can it continue? Time will tell.
Figure 4.
Trajectory of a Pandemic
In times of crisis, real or imagined, people become fixated on certain technical measures or parameters of the problem, which become something like fetishes. The mean temperature of the Earth, the level of CO2, or its rate of production all play such a role in climate change. The parameter R0, the basic reproductive ratio, plays such a role in the present COVID19 crisis. Let’s explain what R0 describes, and what it has to do with some selected observations about the present pandemic.
What is R0?
The best way to explain R0 is through a simple model of an epidemic involving three populations: X, the population of people who are susceptible to a disease but who are presently not infected; Y, the population of infected (and infectious) people; and Z, the population who have recovered, and are not for the present time likely to fall back into population Y.
Many factors affect population X — births, deaths, migration, and so forth. However, over a short period of an epidemic we might consider only becoming infected and transitioning to population Y as having any pertinence. People often model the factor describing this transition as a term like -BXY. The product of populations (XY) indicates something about the probability of an X person encountering an infected one; B is a factor of transmissibility describing the probability that the encounter between an X and a Y results in X becoming infected.
It should be obvious that in the short term any person leaving the group of Xs does so by entering the Ys. So, the equation describing the rate of change of Y contains the term +BXY. However, the change of Y also depends on the rate at which the infected become well, and transition to the group of Zs — a rate we call U, and the rate at which infected people die and vanish from the model altogether — a rate we call V. Thus our differential equation for Y is
dY/dt = (BX – (U+V)) Y
Someone familiar with differential equations will recognize the factor (BX – (U+V)) as a sort of time constant; large BX tends to make this time constant positive, and results in a population of Y which grows exponentially; large (U+V) tends to push it toward negative values which would result in exponential decay.
People don’t like to deal with summations of factors in a time constant, and in the case of epidemics what people have done is to turn the time constant into a ratio, with those factors tending to make it positive in the numerator and those making it negative in the denominator.
The resulting definition is something like R0 = BX/(U+V) ref.[5]
There is a tendency, apparently even among the medical community, to think of R0 as a sort of time constant, but it is not. It is a dimensionless measure more akin to what engineers would call a figure of merit. There is also a tendency to think of it as intrinsically a function of the disease itself. It is not. Let’s discuss each factor in turn and explain what about each factor is important to the epidemic.
The factor B has to do not only with how easily a disease intrinsically jumps from person to person (like measles with a large value of B), but also has to do with cultural and social factors of the Xs. Touchy-feely sorts of societies will make B larger and push R0 to a value larger than 1.0; other societies have more intrinsic distance and push B toward smaller values. All sorts of strategies to increase social distance — lockdowns, isolation of the vulnerable, isolation of the infected and even disinfecting surfaces — seek to make B smaller in value.
X, the population of unaffected people, doesn’t necessarily include the entire population. There are people with intrinsic immunity to the disease. For example, Willis’s contribution from some time ago pointed out that on the Grand Princess not everyone who was exposed became infected. Perhaps only 20-40% did.[6] Obviously X depends on the age distribution and also on the distribution of other morbidities in a population. A common strategy to reduce X is immunization.
Factor U has to do with the virulence of the disease, but also has to do with population characteristics such as age distribution and other morbidities. Within my home state we have an unusually large fraction of the known infected who have recovered quickly. It suggests a lower R0 than places displaying long convalescent periods. Does this tell us anything valuable about COVID19, or does it simply reflect differences in various state departments of health making assessments of recovery? One strategy toward boosting U is to employ treatments such as what New York City is attempting with chloroquine.
What is important about R0?
R0 is not a constant. As a disease progresses through a population X becomes smaller and tends to push R0 to smaller values. Eventually it becomes small enough that R0 falls to a value less than one and the epidemic peters out. This is the principal factor that converts the initial exponential growth of an epidemic to a logistic sort of curve toward its conclusion. Also, just like example about energy, people change their behavior in a time of stress. They avoid other people, and improve hygiene — factors which improve B. Also, different ethnic groups and different parts of the U.S. will display different values of R0. These combined factors probably explain the wiggly behavior of the various graphs on the Daily Coronavirus Graph page.
Getting a handle on R0
Having an accurate estimate of R0, especially early in an epidemic cycle, would be very useful for public health policies. Here are the hurdles one has to clear to get an accurate value:
First, the most valuable estimate of R0 to get ahead of an epidemic is one made early in the epidemic. Without experience to draw upon a person has to use observations. The only population leading to a useful estimate of R0 is the infected, Y. We have no idea how this population is growing at present relative to X.
Second, I have commented elsewhere about individuals local to me who are not only included in the “cases” of two neighboring states (double counted), but who may have been placed within the data at the wrong time of exposure and infection. Early estimates of R0 are made when there are very few infected individuals. Such estimates are very sensitive to errors of observation. Observations placed erroneously too far along in the epidemic will have the effect of erroneously making R0 too large; while those placed erroneously too early will make R0 appear, erroneously, too small.
Because all of the factors involved in R0 keep changing with time, one has to keep collecting timely data for evaluation about effectiveness of strategies. Thus one is always presented with the problem of limited individuals who are pertinent, and then decisions about which individuals should be counted, and exactly where to place them in sequence. At no time does estimating R0 become simple.
Third, because R0 is not a time constant, but rather a dimensionless figure of merit, the pertinent observations for its estimate are of the growth generation to generation — that is, growth of Y in the chain of transmission from person to person. In my state public health officials estimate that more than 60% of the infected can explain where they were infected. However, this estimate has to be tempered with knowledge of how faulty people’s memories are.
One MD has spoken elsewhere about observations, such as the spread through the call center at Daegu, South Korea, which suggest an R0 well below 1.0. However much his number may pertain to the special case of this particular call center, the value of R0 cannot be below 1.0 generally. If it were, the plainly obvious growing epidemic across the U.S. at present would require an utterly improbable set of initial conditions.
Similarly, the large values of R0 (2.0 to 2.6) used by Neil Ferguson, along with estimates of generation duration and other parameters, propelled initial panic. One can tell from the press conferences that Dr. Fauci, Trump’s principal advisor, is still highly influenced by these early estimates.These were guesses, albeit educated ones. Apparently Ferguson is stepping back from these initial estimates. This is just my opinion, but it appears that we, across the Western world, were unprepared to gather the sort of data early to make valuable estimates of R0 at an actionable time — for example rather than daily counts of infections we need counts by generation of spread, and estimates of uncertainty. Estimates of deaths in Britain from 20,000 to 500,000 do nothing to aid in policy prescriptions.
Conclusion
There is no doubt that we will survive this pandemic, but at great cost. A famous quotation seems apropo:
“ If we are victorious in one more battle with the Romans, we shall be utterly ruined.” Phyrric, 275 B.C.
After this crisis has passed we really need to have a sober evaluation of strategies versus outcome, and decide whether we might have done better. We should decide whether our goals were even sensible. Nic Lewis’s contribution is an example of sober analysis; so is Alec Rawls’s. We do not need a second such victory over exponents.
Notes:
[1] Philip Dutre, Thinking and Conscious Machines?, in “A Truly Golden Handbook”, Ed. by Veerle Achten, Geert Bouckaert, Erik Schokkaert, Leuven University Press, 2017.
[2] Dan Fulton, Failure on the Plains, Big Sky Books, Montana State University Press, 1982.
Throughout Fulton’s early chapters quotations refer to the book counts as “arithmetic progressions” when in fact they are geometrical. The book count data came from Robert Strahorn, one time superintendent of the Union Pacific Railroad.
[3] This projection, along with the projections of the Federal Power Commission and National Petroleum Council would be featured in Congressional testimony in May 1972 and in a companion paper in (Chapman, et. al., Science, v.78,p.703-708,1972) as Table 1. While the authors stated that these projections might prove too high, they emphasized that “…to the extent that past population growth rates continue, the projections of Table 1 are supported…”
[4] All electrical consumption data are from EIA spreadsheets.
[5] Martin Nowak, Evolutionary Dynamics, Belknap/Harvard Press, 2006. Nowak’s definition is not exactly like mine but is functionally the same.
[6] https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/03/16/diamond-princess-mysteries/
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wattsupwiththat--2020-03-31--The UAH Global Temperature Dataset at 30 Years: A Look Back at the Early Days

Today ( Monday , March 30 ) is the 30th anniversary of our publication in Science describing the first satellite-based dataset for climate monitoring .
While much has happened in the last 30 years , I thought it might be interesting for people to know what led up to the dataset ’ s development , and some of the politics and behind-the-scenes happenings in the early days .
What follows is in approximate chronological order , and is admittedly from my own perspective .
John Christy might have somewhat different recollections of these events .
Some of what follows might @ @ @ @ @ @ @ humorous , and I also wanted to give credit to some of the other players .
Without their help , influence , and foresight , the satellite temperature dataset might never have been developed .
In the late 1980s John Christy and I were contractors at NASA/MSFC in Huntsville , AL , working in the Atmospheric Sciences Division where NASA managers and researchers were trying to expand beyond their original mission , which was weather support for Space Shuttle launches .
NASA/MSFC manager Gregory S. Wilson was a central figure in our hiring @ @ @ @ @ @ @ came from the University of Wisconsin-Madison with a Ph.D. in Meteorology , specializing in the energetics of African easterly waves ( the precursors of most Atlantic hurricanes ) .
I then did post-doc work there in the satellite remote sensing of precipitation using microwave radiometers .
John Christy received his Ph.D. in Atmospheric Science from the University of Illinois where he did his research on the global surface atmospheric pressure field .
John had experience in analyzing global datasets for climate research , and was hired to assist Pete Robertson ( NASA ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was hired to develop new microwave satellite remote sensing projects for the Space Shuttle and the Space Station .
James Hansen ’ s Congressional Testimony , and Our First Data Processing In 1988 , NASA ’ s James Hansen testified for then-Senator Al Gore , Jr. , testimony which more than any single event thrust global warming into the collective consciousness of society .
We were at a NASA meeting in New Hampshire .
As I recall , UAH ’ s Dick McNider on the plane ride up had just read a draft @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to him by John Christy ( who had been a Trenberth student ) that discussed many issues with the sparse surface temperature data for detecting climate change .
During lunch Dick asked , given all the issues with the lack of global coverage and siting issues with surface data sets discussed by Trenberth , if there wasn ’ t satellite data that could be used to investigate Hansen ’ s global claims ?
NASA HQ manager James Dodge was there and expressed immediate interest in funding such a research project .
I said @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the NOAA/NASA/JPL Microwave Sounding Unit ( MSU ) instruments , but it would be difficult to access approximately 10 years of global data .
Note that this was before there was routine internet access to large digital datasets , and ordering data from the government had a very large price tag .
No one purchased many years of global data ; it came on computer 6250 bpi computer tapes each containing approximately 100 MB of data , and computers then were pretty slow .
The data we wanted was from NOAA satellites , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 10.5 inch ) IBM tapes rather than to keep the old data tapes around using up storage space .
It turns out that Roy Jenne who worked data systems at the NSF ’ s National Center for Atmospheric Research ( NCAR ) in Boulder had years before taken it upon himself to archive the old NOAA satellite data before it was lost altogether .
He kept the data on a “ mass storage system ” ( very large and inefficient by today ’ s standards ) and I believe it was Greg Wilson @ @ @ @ @ @ @ access to those data .
We obtained somewhat less than 10 years of data from NCAR , and I decided how to best calibrate it and average it into a more manageable space/time resolution .
I had frequent contact with JPL engineers who built the MSU instruments , Fred Soltis in particular , who along with Norman Grody at NOAA provided me with calibration data for the MSU instruments flying on different satellites .
We enlisted John Christy to analyze those data since he brought considerable experience with diagnosing global datasets for climate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ John discovered was from comparing global averages from different satellites in different orbits : They gave surprisingly similar answers in terms of year-to-year temperature variability .
This was quite unexpected and demonstrated that the MSU instruments had high calibration stability , at least over a few years .
It also demonstrated that NOAA ’ s practice of adjusting satellite data with radiosondes ( weather balloons ) was backwards : the differences others had seen between the two systems were due to poor spatial sampling by the radiosondes , not due to changes in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to the critical historical data archived by Roy Jenne at NCAR , we would some of the more recent satellite data that was kept at NOAA .
We didn ’ t have quite ten years of data , and an editor at Science magazine wanted ten full years of data before they would publish our first findings .
We were able to order more data from NOAA to get the first 10 years ’ worth ( 1979 through 1988 ) , and Science accepted our paper .
On March 29 , 1990 we @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the communications center at NASA/MSFC .
For some reason , NASA would not allow it to be called a full-fledged “ press conference ” .
As I recall , attendance was heavy ( by Huntsville standards ) and there was no place for me to park but in the grass , for which I was awarded a parking ticket by NASA security .
JPL flew a remaining copy of the MSU instrument in as a prop ; it had its own seat on a commercial flight from Pasadena .
Jay Leno would later @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and Joan Lunden covered it on Good Morning America .
While we watched Ms. Lunden on a monitor the next morning , a NASA scientist remarked that he was too distracted by her long , slender legs to listen to what she was saying .
After we published our first research results on March 30,1990 , we received an invitation to testify for Al Gore in a Senate committee hearing in October , 1990 on the subject of coral bleaching .
Phil Jones from the University of East Anglia was also there @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the hearing room , I saw a C-SPAN camera being set up , and having noticed that Al Gore seemed to be the only committee member in attendance , I asked the cameraman about the lack of interest from other senators .
He said something like , “ Oh , Senator Gore likes it this way… he gets all the media attention.
” We still used overhead projectors back then with view graphs , and I thought I ’ d better check out the equipment .
The projector turned out to be seriously @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the arm would not fix it .
I remember thinking to myself , “ this seems pretty shoddy for Congress ” .
Senator Gore launched into some introductory remarks while looking at me as I struggled with the projector .
From his comments , he was obviously assuming I was Phil Jones ( who was supposed to go first , and who Gore said he had previously visited in England ) .
I thought to myself , this is getting strange .
Just in time , I realized the projector arm was bent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it back , and took my seat while Phil Jones presented his material .
Our testimony , which was rather uneventful , led to the traditional letter of thanks from Gore for supporting the hearing .
In that letter , Gore expressed interest in additional results as they became available .
So , when it came time to get the necessary additional satellite data out of NOAA , I dropped Gore ’ s name to a manager at NOAA who suddenly became interested in providing everything they had to us at no charge… @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of thousands of our research dollars .
Hundreds of Computer Tapes and an Old Honda Civic It might seem absurd to today ’ s young scientists , but it was not an easy task to process large amounts of digital data in the late 1980s .
I received box after box of 9-track computer tapes in the mail from NOAA .
Every few days , I would load them up in my old , high-mileage , barely-running 2-door Honda Civic and cart them over to the computer center at MSFC .
NASA ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ use the computer facility for the task .
At that time , most of the computer power was being taken up by engineers modeling the fuel flows within the Space Shuttle main engines .
As I added more data and processed it , I would pass the averages on to John Christy who would then work his analysis magic on them .
I don ’ t recall how many years we would use this tape-in-the-mail ordering system .
Most if not all of those tapes now reside in a Huntsville landfill .
After @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from one office location to another during our moves , I decided there was no point in keeping them any longer .
A Call from the White House , and the First Hubble Space Telescope Image Also in 1990 , John Sununu , White House Chief of Staff to President George H. W. Bush , had taken notice of our work and invited us to come up to DC for a briefing .
We first had to bring the NASA Administrator V. Adm. Richard Truly up to speed .
Truly was quite interested @ @ @ @ @ @ @ understood my points by repeating them back to me .
In my nervousness , I was apparently interrupting him by finishing his sentences , and he finally told me to “ shut up ” .
So , I shut up .
The next stop was the office of the Associate Administrator , Lennard Fisk .
While we were briefing Fisk , an assistant came in to show him the first image just collected by the Hubble Space Telescope ( HST ) .
This was before anyone realized the HST was miss-assembled and was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it was quite a fortuitous coincidence that we were there to witness such an event .
As the day progressed , and no call was coming in from the White House , Dr. Fisk seemed increasingly nervous .
I was getting the impression he really did not want us to be briefing the White House on something as important as climate change .
In those days , before NASA ’ s James Hansen made it a habit , no scientists were allowed to talk to politicians without heavy grooming by NASA management .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ would learn that the lack of substantial warming in the satellite data was probably hurting NASA ’ s selling of ‘ Mission to Planet Earth ’ to Congress .
The bigger the perceived problem , the more money a government agency can extract from Congress to research the problem .
At one point a NASA HQ manager would end up yelling at us in frustration for hurting the effort .
Late in the afternoon the call finally came in from the White House for us to visit , at which point Dr. Fisk @ @ @ @ @ @ @ they just left to return to Huntsville ” , as he ushered us out the door .
Dr. Wilson swore me to secrecy regarding the matter .
( I talked with John Sununu at a Heartland Institute meeting a few years ago but forgot to ask him if he remembered this course of events ) .
This would probably be – to me , at least – the most surreal and memorable day of our 30+ years of experiences related to the satellite temperature dataset .
In subsequent years , John Christy would @ @ @ @ @ @ @ satellite dataset , including extensive comparisons of our data to radiosonde data , while I spent most of my time on other NASA projects I was involved in .
But once a month for the next 30 years , we would process the most recent satellite data with our separate computer codes , passing the results back and forth and posting them for public access .
Only with our most recent Version 6 dataset procedures would those codes be entirely re-written by a single person ( Danny Braswell ) who had professional software @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tiring of being told by NASA management what I could and could not say in congressional testimony , I resigned NASA and continued my NASA projects as a UAH employee in the Earth System Science Center , for which John Christy serves as director ( as well as the Alabama State Climatologist ) .
At this point , neither John nor I have retirement plans , and will continue to update the UAH dataset every month for the foreseeable future .

Reposted from Dr. Roy Spencer’s Blog
March 30th, 2020 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.
Today (Monday, March 30) is the 30th anniversary of our publication in Science describing the first satellite-based dataset for climate monitoring.
While much has happened in the last 30 years, I thought it might be interesting for people to know what led up to the dataset’s development, and some of the politics and behind-the-scenes happenings in the early days. What follows is in approximate chronological order, and is admittedly from my own perspective. John Christy might have somewhat different recollections of these events.
Some of what follows might surprise you, some of it is humorous, and I also wanted to give credit to some of the other players. Without their help, influence, and foresight, the satellite temperature dataset might never have been developed.
Spencer & Christy Backgrounds
In the late 1980s John Christy and I were contractors at NASA/MSFC in Huntsville, AL, working in the Atmospheric Sciences Division where NASA managers and researchers were trying to expand beyond their original mission, which was weather support for Space Shuttle launches. NASA/MSFC manager Gregory S. Wilson was a central figure in our hiring and encouragement of our work.
I came from the University of Wisconsin-Madison with a Ph.D. in Meteorology, specializing in the energetics of African easterly waves (the precursors of most Atlantic hurricanes). I then did post-doc work there in the satellite remote sensing of precipitation using microwave radiometers. John Christy received his Ph.D. in Atmospheric Science from the University of Illinois where he did his research on the global surface atmospheric pressure field. John had experience in analyzing global datasets for climate research, and was hired to assist Pete Robertson (NASA) to assist in data analysis. I was hired to develop new microwave satellite remote sensing projects for the Space Shuttle and the Space Station.
James Hansen’s Congressional Testimony, and Our First Data Processing
In 1988, NASA’s James Hansen testified for then-Senator Al Gore, Jr., testimony which more than any single event thrust global warming into the collective consciousness of society. We were at a NASA meeting in New Hampshire. As I recall, UAH’s Dick McNider on the plane ride up had just read a draft of a paper by Kevin Trenberth given to him by John Christy (who had been a Trenberth student) that discussed many issues with the sparse surface temperature data for detecting climate change.
During lunch Dick asked, given all the issues with the lack of global coverage and siting issues with surface data sets discussed by Trenberth, if there wasn’t satellite data that could be used to investigate Hansen’s global claims? NASA HQ manager James Dodge was there and expressed immediate interest in funding such a research project.
I said, yes, such data existed from the NOAA/NASA/JPL Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) instruments, but it would be difficult to access approximately 10 years of global data. Note that this was before there was routine internet access to large digital datasets, and ordering data from the government had a very large price tag. No one purchased many years of global data; it came on computer 6250 bpi computer tapes each containing approximately 100 MB of data, and computers then were pretty slow. The data we wanted was from NOAA satellites, and NOAA would reuse these large (10.5 inch) IBM tapes rather than to keep the old data tapes around using up storage space.
It turns out that Roy Jenne who worked data systems at the NSF’s National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder had years before taken it upon himself to archive the old NOAA satellite data before it was lost altogether. He kept the data on a “mass storage system” (very large and inefficient by today’s standards) and I believe it was Greg Wilson who made the connection to gain us access to those data.
We obtained somewhat less than 10 years of data from NCAR, and I decided how to best calibrate it and average it into a more manageable space/time resolution. I had frequent contact with JPL engineers who built the MSU instruments, Fred Soltis in particular, who along with Norman Grody at NOAA provided me with calibration data for the MSU instruments flying on different satellites.
We enlisted John Christy to analyze those data since he brought considerable experience with diagnosing global datasets for climate purposes. One of the first things John discovered was from comparing global averages from different satellites in different orbits: They gave surprisingly similar answers in terms of year-to-year temperature variability. This was quite unexpected and demonstrated that the MSU instruments had high calibration stability, at least over a few years. It also demonstrated that NOAA’s practice of adjusting satellite data with radiosondes (weather balloons) was backwards: the differences others had seen between the two systems were due to poor spatial sampling by the radiosondes, not due to changes in the satellite calibration stability.
In addition to the critical historical data archived by Roy Jenne at NCAR, we would some of the more recent satellite data that was kept at NOAA. We didn’t have quite ten years of data, and an editor at Science magazine wanted ten full years of data before they would publish our first findings. We were able to order more data from NOAA to get the first 10 years’ worth (1979 through 1988), and Science accepted our paper.
The NASA Press Conference
On March 29, 1990 we held a “media availability” at the communications center at NASA/MSFC. For some reason, NASA would not allow it to be called a full-fledged “press conference”. As I recall, attendance was heavy (by Huntsville standards) and there was no place for me to park but in the grass, for which I was awarded a parking ticket by NASA security. JPL flew a remaining copy of the MSU instrument in as a prop; it had its own seat on a commercial flight from Pasadena.
Jay Leno would later mention our news conference in his monologue, and Joan Lunden covered it on Good Morning America. While we watched Ms. Lunden on a monitor the next morning, a NASA scientist remarked that he was too distracted by her long, slender legs to listen to what she was saying.
Our 1990 Senate Testimony for Gore
After we published our first research results on March 30,1990, we received an invitation to testify for Al Gore in a Senate committee hearing in October, 1990 on the subject of coral bleaching. Phil Jones from the University of East Anglia was also there to testify.
As people filed into the hearing room, I saw a C-SPAN camera being set up, and having noticed that Al Gore seemed to be the only committee member in attendance, I asked the cameraman about the lack of interest from other senators. He said something like, “Oh, Senator Gore likes it this way… he gets all the media attention.”
We still used overhead projectors back then with view graphs, and I thought I’d better check out the equipment. The projector turned out to be seriously out-of-focus, and the focus adjustment on the arm would not fix it. I remember thinking to myself, “this seems pretty shoddy for Congress”.
Senator Gore launched into some introductory remarks while looking at me as I struggled with the projector. From his comments, he was obviously assuming I was Phil Jones (who was supposed to go first, and who Gore said he had previously visited in England). I thought to myself, this is getting strange. Just in time, I realized the projector arm was bent slightly out of alignment, I bent it back, and took my seat while Phil Jones presented his material.
Our testimony, which was rather uneventful, led to the traditional letter of thanks from Gore for supporting the hearing. In that letter, Gore expressed interest in additional results as they became available.
So, when it came time to get the necessary additional satellite data out of NOAA, I dropped Gore’s name to a manager at NOAA who suddenly became interested in providing everything they had to us at no charge… rather than us having to pay tens of thousands of our research dollars.
Hundreds of Computer Tapes and an Old Honda Civic
It might seem absurd to today’s young scientists, but it was not an easy task to process large amounts of digital data in the late 1980s. I received box after box of 9-track computer tapes in the mail from NOAA. Every few days, I would load them up in my old, high-mileage, barely-running 2-door Honda Civic and cart them over to the computer center at MSFC.
NASA’s Greg Wilson had gotten permission to use the computer facility for the task. At that time, most of the computer power was being taken up by engineers modeling the fuel flows within the Space Shuttle main engines. As I added more data and processed it, I would pass the averages on to John Christy who would then work his analysis magic on them.
I don’t recall how many years we would use this tape-in-the-mail ordering system. Most if not all of those tapes now reside in a Huntsville landfill. After many years of storage and hauling them from one office location to another during our moves, I decided there was no point in keeping them any longer.
A Call from the White House, and the First Hubble Space Telescope Image
Also in 1990, John Sununu, White House Chief of Staff to President George H. W. Bush, had taken notice of our work and invited us to come up to DC for a briefing.
We first had to bring the NASA Administrator V. Adm. Richard Truly up to speed. Truly was quite interested and was trying to make sure he understood my points by repeating them back to me. In my nervousness, I was apparently interrupting him by finishing his sentences, and he finally told me to “shut up”. So, I shut up.
The next stop was the office of the Associate Administrator, Lennard Fisk. While we were briefing Fisk, an assistant came in to show him the first image just collected by the Hubble Space Telescope (HST). This was before anyone realized the HST was miss-assembled and was out of focus. In retrospect, it was quite a fortuitous coincidence that we were there to witness such an event.
As the day progressed, and no call was coming in from the White House, Dr. Fisk seemed increasingly nervous. I was getting the impression he really did not want us to be briefing the White House on something as important as climate change. In those days, before NASA’s James Hansen made it a habit, no scientists were allowed to talk to politicians without heavy grooming by NASA management.
As the years went by, we would learn that the lack of substantial warming in the satellite data was probably hurting NASA’s selling of ‘Mission to Planet Earth’ to Congress. The bigger the perceived problem, the more money a government agency can extract from Congress to research the problem. At one point a NASA HQ manager would end up yelling at us in frustration for hurting the effort.
Late in the afternoon the call finally came in from the White House for us to visit, at which point Dr. Fisk told them, “Sorry, but they just left to return to Huntsville”, as he ushered us out the door. Dr. Wilson swore me to secrecy regarding the matter. (I talked with John Sununu at a Heartland Institute meeting a few years ago but forgot to ask him if he remembered this course of events). This would probably be – to me, at least – the most surreal and memorable day of our 30+ years of experiences related to the satellite temperature dataset.
After 1990
In subsequent years, John Christy would assume the central role in promoting the satellite dataset, including extensive comparisons of our data to radiosonde data, while I spent most of my time on other NASA projects I was involved in. But once a month for the next 30 years, we would process the most recent satellite data with our separate computer codes, passing the results back and forth and posting them for public access.
Only with our most recent Version 6 dataset procedures would those codes be entirely re-written by a single person (Danny Braswell) who had professional software development experience. In 2001, after tiring of being told by NASA management what I could and could not say in congressional testimony, I resigned NASA and continued my NASA projects as a UAH employee in the Earth System Science Center, for which John Christy serves as director (as well as the Alabama State Climatologist).
At this point, neither John nor I have retirement plans, and will continue to update the UAH dataset every month for the foreseeable future.
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wattsupwiththat--2020-04-01--Hubble Finds Best Evidence for Elusive Mid-Sized Black Hole

Astronomers have found the best evidence for the perpetrator of a cosmic homicide : a black hole of an elusive class known as “ intermediate-mass , ” which betrayed its existence by tearing apart a wayward star that passed too close .
Weighing in at about 50,000 times the mass of our Sun , the black hole is smaller than the supermassive black holes ( at millions or billions of solar masses ) that lie at the cores of large galaxies , but larger than stellar-mass black holes formed by the collapse of a massive star .
These so-called intermediate-mass @ @ @ @ @ @ @ long-sought “ missing link ” in black hole evolution .
Though there have been a few other IMBH candidates , researchers consider these new observations the strongest evidence yet for mid-sized black holes in the universe .
It took the combined power of two X-ray observatories and the keen vision of NASA ’ s Hubble Space Telescope to nail down the cosmic beast .
Astronomers have found the best evidence for a black hole of an elusive class known as “ intermediate-mass , ” which betrayed its existence by tearing apart a wayward @ @ @ @ @ @ @ exciting discovery opens the door to the possibility of many more lurking undetected in the dark , waiting to be given away by a star passing too close .
Download this video in HD formats from NASA Goddard ’ s Scientific Visualization Studio “ Intermediate-mass black holes are very elusive objects , and so it is critical to carefully consider and rule out alternative explanations for each candidate .
That is what Hubble has allowed us to do for our candidate , ” said Dacheng Lin of the University of New Hampshire , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ results are published on March 31 , 2020 , in The Astrophysical Journal Letters .
The story of the discovery reads like a Sherlock Holmes story , involving the meticulous step-by-step case-building necessary to catch the culprit .
Lin and his team used Hubble to follow up on leads from NASA ’ s Chandra X-ray Observatory and ESA ’ s ( the European Space Agency ) X-ray Multi-Mirror Mission ( XMM-Newton ) .
In 2006 these satellites detected a powerful flare of X-rays , but they could not determine whether it originated from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Researchers attributed it to a star being torn apart after coming too close to a gravitationally powerful compact object , like a black hole .
Surprisingly , the X-ray source , named 3XMM J215022.4−055108 , was not located in a galaxy ’ s center , where massive black holes normally would reside .
This raised hopes that an IMBH was the culprit , but first another possible source of the X-ray flare had to be ruled out : a neutron star in our own Milky Way galaxy , cooling off after being heated @ @ @ @ @ @ @ stars are the crushed remnants of an exploded star .
Hubble was pointed at the X-ray source to resolve its precise location .
Deep , high-resolution imaging provides strong evidence that the X-rays emanated not from an isolated source in our galaxy , but instead in a distant , dense star cluster on the outskirts of another galaxy — just the type of place astronomers expected to find an IMBH .
Previous Hubble research has shown that the mass of a black hole in the center of a galaxy is proportional to that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ In other words , the more massive the galaxy , the more massive its black hole .
Therefore , the star cluster that is home to 3XMM J215022.4−055108 may be the stripped-down core of a lower-mass dwarf galaxy that has been gravitationally and tidally disrupted by its close interactions with its current larger galaxy host .
IMBHs have been particularly difficult to find because they are smaller and less active than supermassive black holes ; they do not have readily available sources of fuel , nor as strong a gravitational pull to draw @ @ @ @ @ @ @ produce telltale X-ray glows .
Astronomers essentially have to catch an IMBH red-handed in the act of gobbling up a star .
Lin and his colleagues combed through the XMM-Newton data archive , searching hundreds of thousands of observations to find one IMBH candidate .
The X-ray glow from the shredded star allowed astronomers to estimate the black hole ’ s mass of 50,000 solar masses .
The mass of the IMBH was estimated based on both X-ray luminosity and the spectral shape .
“ This is much more reliable than using X-ray @ @ @ @ @ @ @ previous IMBH candidates , ” said Lin .
“ The reason why we can use the spectral fits to estimate the IMBH mass for our object is that its spectral evolution showed that it has been in the thermal spectral state , a state commonly seen and well understood in accreting stellar-mass black holes.
” This object isn ’ t the first to be considered a likely candidate for an intermediate-mass black hole .
In 2009 Hubble teamed up with NASA ’ s Swift observatory and ESA ’ s XMM-Newton to identify what @ @ @ @ @ @ @ HLX-1 , located towards the edge of the galaxy ESO 243-49 .
It too is in the center of a young , massive cluster of blue stars that may be a stripped-down dwarf galaxy core .
The X-rays come from a hot accretion disk around the black hole .
“ The main difference is that our object is tearing a star apart , providing strong evidence that it is a massive black hole , instead of a stellar-mass black hole as people often worry about for previous candidates including HLX-1 , ” Lin @ @ @ @ @ @ @ door to the possibility of many more lurking undetected in the dark , waiting to be given away by a star passing too close .
Lin plans to continue his meticulous detective work , using the methods his team has proved successful .
Many questions remain to be answered .
Does a supermassive black hole grow from an IMBH ?
How do IMBHs themselves form ?
Are dense star clusters their favored home ?
The Hubble Space Telescope is a project of international cooperation between NASA and ESA ( European Space Agency ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Center in Greenbelt , Maryland , manages the telescope .
The Space Telescope Science Institute ( STScI ) in Baltimore , Maryland , conducts Hubble science operations .
STScI is operated for NASA by the Association of Universities for Research in Astronomy in Washington , D.C .
Banner image : This illustration depicts a cosmic homicide in action .
A wayward star is being shredded by the intense gravitational pull of a black hole that contains tens of thousands of solar masses .
The stellar remains are forming an accretion disk around the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from the super-heated gas disk alerted astronomers to the black hole ’ s location ; otherwise it lurked unknown in the dark .
The elusive object is classified as an intermediate mass black hole ( IMBH ) , as it is much less massive than the monster black holes that dwell in the centers of galaxies .
Therefore , IMBHs are mostly quiescent because they do not pull in as much material , and are hard to find .
Hubble observations provide evidence that the IMBH dwells inside a dense star cluster .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ core of a dwarf galaxy .
Credit : NASA , ESA and D. Player ( STScI )

From NASA
March 31, 2020
Astronomers have found the best evidence for the perpetrator of a cosmic homicide: a black hole of an elusive class known as “intermediate-mass,” which betrayed its existence by tearing apart a wayward star that passed too close.
Weighing in at about 50,000 times the mass of our Sun, the black hole is smaller than the supermassive black holes (at millions or billions of solar masses) that lie at the cores of large galaxies, but larger than stellar-mass black holes formed by the collapse of a massive star.
These so-called intermediate-mass black holes (IMBHs) are a long-sought “missing link” in black hole evolution. Though there have been a few other IMBH candidates, researchers consider these new observations the strongest evidence yet for mid-sized black holes in the universe.
It took the combined power of two X-ray observatories and the keen vision of NASA’s Hubble Space Telescope to nail down the cosmic beast.
Astronomers have found the best evidence for a black hole of an elusive class known as “intermediate-mass,” which betrayed its existence by tearing apart a wayward star that passed too close. This exciting discovery opens the door to the possibility of many more lurking undetected in the dark, waiting to be given away by a star passing too close.
Credits: NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center
Download this video in HD formats from NASA Goddard’s Scientific Visualization Studio
“Intermediate-mass black holes are very elusive objects, and so it is critical to carefully consider and rule out alternative explanations for each candidate. That is what Hubble has allowed us to do for our candidate,” said Dacheng Lin of the University of New Hampshire, principal investigator of the study. The results are published on March 31, 2020, in The Astrophysical Journal Letters.
The story of the discovery reads like a Sherlock Holmes story, involving the meticulous step-by-step case-building necessary to catch the culprit.
Lin and his team used Hubble to follow up on leads from NASA’s Chandra X-ray Observatory and ESA’s (the European Space Agency) X-ray Multi-Mirror Mission (XMM-Newton). In 2006 these satellites detected a powerful flare of X-rays, but they could not determine whether it originated from inside or outside of our galaxy. Researchers attributed it to a star being torn apart after coming too close to a gravitationally powerful compact object, like a black hole.
Surprisingly, the X-ray source, named 3XMM J215022.4−055108, was not located in a galaxy’s center, where massive black holes normally would reside. This raised hopes that an IMBH was the culprit, but first another possible source of the X-ray flare had to be ruled out: a neutron star in our own Milky Way galaxy, cooling off after being heated to a very high temperature. Neutron stars are the crushed remnants of an exploded star.
Hubble was pointed at the X-ray source to resolve its precise location. Deep, high-resolution imaging provides strong evidence that the X-rays emanated not from an isolated source in our galaxy, but instead in a distant, dense star cluster on the outskirts of another galaxy — just the type of place astronomers expected to find an IMBH. Previous Hubble research has shown that the mass of a black hole in the center of a galaxy is proportional to that host galaxy’s central bulge. In other words, the more massive the galaxy, the more massive its black hole. Therefore, the star cluster that is home to 3XMM J215022.4−055108 may be the stripped-down core of a lower-mass dwarf galaxy that has been gravitationally and tidally disrupted by its close interactions with its current larger galaxy host.
IMBHs have been particularly difficult to find because they are smaller and less active than supermassive black holes; they do not have readily available sources of fuel, nor as strong a gravitational pull to draw stars and other cosmic material which would produce telltale X-ray glows. Astronomers essentially have to catch an IMBH red-handed in the act of gobbling up a star. Lin and his colleagues combed through the XMM-Newton data archive, searching hundreds of thousands of observations to find one IMBH candidate.
The X-ray glow from the shredded star allowed astronomers to estimate the black hole’s mass of 50,000 solar masses. The mass of the IMBH was estimated based on both X-ray luminosity and the spectral shape. “This is much more reliable than using X-ray luminosity alone as typically done before for previous IMBH candidates,” said Lin. “The reason why we can use the spectral fits to estimate the IMBH mass for our object is that its spectral evolution showed that it has been in the thermal spectral state, a state commonly seen and well understood in accreting stellar-mass black holes.”
This object isn’t the first to be considered a likely candidate for an intermediate-mass black hole. In 2009 Hubble teamed up with NASA’s Swift observatory and ESA’s XMM-Newton to identify what is interpreted as an IMBH, called HLX-1, located towards the edge of the galaxy ESO 243-49. It too is in the center of a young, massive cluster of blue stars that may be a stripped-down dwarf galaxy core. The X-rays come from a hot accretion disk around the black hole. “The main difference is that our object is tearing a star apart, providing strong evidence that it is a massive black hole, instead of a stellar-mass black hole as people often worry about for previous candidates including HLX-1,” Lin said.
Finding this IMBH opens the door to the possibility of many more lurking undetected in the dark, waiting to be given away by a star passing too close. Lin plans to continue his meticulous detective work, using the methods his team has proved successful. Many questions remain to be answered. Does a supermassive black hole grow from an IMBH? How do IMBHs themselves form? Are dense star clusters their favored home?
The Hubble Space Telescope is a project of international cooperation between NASA and ESA (European Space Agency). NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland, manages the telescope. The Space Telescope Science Institute (STScI) in Baltimore, Maryland, conducts Hubble science operations. STScI is operated for NASA by the Association of Universities for Research in Astronomy in Washington, D.C.
Banner image: This illustration depicts a cosmic homicide in action. A wayward star is being shredded by the intense gravitational pull of a black hole that contains tens of thousands of solar masses. The stellar remains are forming an accretion disk around the black hole. Flares of X-ray light from the super-heated gas disk alerted astronomers to the black hole’s location; otherwise it lurked unknown in the dark. The elusive object is classified as an intermediate mass black hole (IMBH), as it is much less massive than the monster black holes that dwell in the centers of galaxies. Therefore, IMBHs are mostly quiescent because they do not pull in as much material, and are hard to find. Hubble observations provide evidence that the IMBH dwells inside a dense star cluster. The cluster itself may be the stripped-down core of a dwarf galaxy. Credit: NASA, ESA and D. Player (STScI)
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