wattsupwiththat--2020-04-01--On Mars or Earth, biohybrid can turn carbon dioxide into new products

Bacteria on nanowires convert sunlight , carbon dioxide and water to organic building blocks If humans ever hope to colonize Mars , the settlers will need to manufacture on-planet a huge range of organic compounds , from fuels to drugs , that are too expensive to ship from Earth .
University of California , Berkeley , and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory ( Berkeley Lab ) chemists have a plan for that .
For the past eight years , the researchers have been working on a hybrid system combining bacteria and nanowires that can capture the energy of sunlight to convert @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for organic molecules .
Nanowires are thin silicon wires about one-hundredth the width of a human hair , used as electronic components , and also as sensors and solar cells .
“ On Mars , about 96 % of the atmosphere is CO2 .
Basically , all you need is these silicon semiconductor nanowires to take in the solar energy and pass it on to these bugs to do the chemistry for you , ” said project leader Peidong Yang , professor of chemistry and the S. K. and Angela Chan Distinguished Chair @ @ @ @ @ @ @ For a deep space mission , you care about the payload weight , and biological systems have the advantage that they self-reproduce : You don ’ t need to send a lot .
That ’ s why our biohybrid version is highly attractive.
” The only other requirement , besides sunlight , is water , which on Mars is relatively abundant in the polar ice caps and likely lies frozen underground over most of the planet , said Yang , who is a senior faculty scientist at Berkeley Lab and director of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ can also pull carbon dioxide from the air on Earth to make organic compounds and simultaneously address climate change , which is caused by an excess of human-produced CO2 in the atmosphere .
In a new paper to be published March 31 in the journal Joule , the researchers report a milestone in packing these bacteria ( Sporomusa ovata ) into a “ forest of nanowires ” to achieve a record efficiency : 3.6 % of the incoming solar energy is converted and stored in carbon bonds , in the form of a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ acid , or vinegar .
Acetate molecules can serve as building blocks for a range of organic molecules , from fuels and plastics to drugs .
Many other organic products could be made from acetate inside genetically engineered organisms , such as bacteria or yeast .
The system works like photosynthesis , which plants naturally employ to convert carbon dioxide and water to carbon compounds , mostly sugar and carbohydrates .
Plants , however , have a fairly low efficiency , typically converting less than one-half percent of solar energy to carbon compounds @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to the plant that best converts CO2 to sugar : sugar cane , which is 4-5 % efficient .
Yang is also working on systems to efficiently produce sugars and carbohydrates from sunlight and CO2 , potentially providing food for Mars colonists .
When Yang and his colleagues first demonstrated their nanowire-bacteria hybrid reactor five years ago , the solar conversion efficiency was only about 0.4 % — comparable to plants , but still low compared to typical efficiencies of 20 % or more for silicon solar panels that convert light to electricity @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to turn nanowires into solar panels , some 15 years ago .
The researchers initially tried to increase the efficiency by packing more bacteria onto the nanowires , which transfer electrons directly to the bacteria for the chemical reaction .
But the bacteria separated from the nanowires , breaking the circuit .
The researchers eventually discovered that the bugs , as they produced acetate , decreased the acidity of the surrounding water — that is , increased a measurement called pH — and made them detach from the nanowires .
He and his @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the water slightly more acidic to counteract the effect of rising pH as a result of continuous acetate production .
This allowed them to pack many more bacteria into the nanowire forest , upping the efficiency nearly by a factor of 10 .
They were able to operate the reactor , a forest of parallel nanowires , for a week without the bacteria peeling off .
In this particular experiment , the nanowires were used only as conductive wires , not as solar absorbers .
An external solar panel provided the energy .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ the nanowires would absorb light , generate electrons and transport them to the bacteria glommed onto the nanowires .
The bacteria take in the electrons and , similar to the way plants make sugars , convert two carbon dioxide molecules and water into acetate and oxygen .
“ These silicon nanowires are essentially like an antenna : They capture the solar photon just like a solar panel , ” Yang said .
“ Within these silicon nanowires , they will generate electrons and feed them to these bacteria .
Then the bacteria absorb @ @ @ @ @ @ @ out acetate.
” The oxygen is a side benefit and , on Mars , could replenish colonists ’ artificial atmosphere , which would mimic Earth ’ s 21 % oxygen environment .
Yang has tweaked the system in other ways — for example , to embed quantum dots in the bacteria ’ s own membrane that act as solar panels , absorbing sunlight and obviating the need for silicon nanowires .
These cyborg bacteria also make acetic acid .
His lab continues to search for ways to up the efficiency of the biohybrid @ @ @ @ @ @ @ genetically engineering the bacteria to make them more versatile and capable of producing a variety of organic compounds .
The research is supported by a grant from NASA to the Center for the Utilization of Biological Engineering in Space ( CUBES ) , a multi-university effort to develop techniques for biomanufacturing in space .
UC Berkeley co-authors of the paper are current or former graduate students Yude Su , Stefano Cestellos-Blanco and Ji Min Kim , who contributed equally to the work ; and graduate students Yue-xiao Shen , Qiao Kong , Dylan @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and Yuhong Cao .

Bacteria on nanowires convert sunlight, carbon dioxide and water to organic building blocks
University of California – Berkeley
If humans ever hope to colonize Mars, the settlers will need to manufacture on-planet a huge range of organic compounds, from fuels to drugs, that are too expensive to ship from Earth.
University of California, Berkeley, and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab) chemists have a plan for that.
For the past eight years, the researchers have been working on a hybrid system combining bacteria and nanowires that can capture the energy of sunlight to convert carbon dioxide and water into building blocks for organic molecules. Nanowires are thin silicon wires about one-hundredth the width of a human hair, used as electronic components, and also as sensors and solar cells.
“On Mars, about 96% of the atmosphere is CO2. Basically, all you need is these silicon semiconductor nanowires to take in the solar energy and pass it on to these bugs to do the chemistry for you,” said project leader Peidong Yang, professor of chemistry and the S. K. and Angela Chan Distinguished Chair in Energy at UC Berkeley. “For a deep space mission, you care about the payload weight, and biological systems have the advantage that they self-reproduce: You don’t need to send a lot. That’s why our biohybrid version is highly attractive.”
The only other requirement, besides sunlight, is water, which on Mars is relatively abundant in the polar ice caps and likely lies frozen underground over most of the planet, said Yang, who is a senior faculty scientist at Berkeley Lab and director of the Kavli Energy Nanoscience Institute.
The biohybrid can also pull carbon dioxide from the air on Earth to make organic compounds and simultaneously address climate change, which is caused by an excess of human-produced CO2 in the atmosphere.
In a new paper to be published March 31 in the journal Joule, the researchers report a milestone in packing these bacteria (Sporomusa ovata) into a “forest of nanowires” to achieve a record efficiency: 3.6% of the incoming solar energy is converted and stored in carbon bonds, in the form of a two-carbon molecule called acetate: essentially acetic acid, or vinegar.
Acetate molecules can serve as building blocks for a range of organic molecules, from fuels and plastics to drugs. Many other organic products could be made from acetate inside genetically engineered organisms, such as bacteria or yeast.
The system works like photosynthesis, which plants naturally employ to convert carbon dioxide and water to carbon compounds, mostly sugar and carbohydrates. Plants, however, have a fairly low efficiency, typically converting less than one-half percent of solar energy to carbon compounds. Yang’s system is comparable to the plant that best converts CO2 to sugar: sugar cane, which is 4-5% efficient.
Yang is also working on systems to efficiently produce sugars and carbohydrates from sunlight and CO2, potentially providing food for Mars colonists.
Watch the pH
When Yang and his colleagues first demonstrated their nanowire-bacteria hybrid reactor five years ago, the solar conversion efficiency was only about 0.4% — comparable to plants, but still low compared to typical efficiencies of 20% or more for silicon solar panels that convert light to electricity. Yang was one of the first to turn nanowires into solar panels, some 15 years ago.
The researchers initially tried to increase the efficiency by packing more bacteria onto the nanowires, which transfer electrons directly to the bacteria for the chemical reaction. But the bacteria separated from the nanowires, breaking the circuit.
The researchers eventually discovered that the bugs, as they produced acetate, decreased the acidity of the surrounding water — that is, increased a measurement called pH — and made them detach from the nanowires. He and his students eventually found a way to keep the water slightly more acidic to counteract the effect of rising pH as a result of continuous acetate production. This allowed them to pack many more bacteria into the nanowire forest, upping the efficiency nearly by a factor of 10. They were able to operate the reactor, a forest of parallel nanowires, for a week without the bacteria peeling off.
In this particular experiment, the nanowires were used only as conductive wires, not as solar absorbers. An external solar panel provided the energy.
In a real-world system, however, the nanowires would absorb light, generate electrons and transport them to the bacteria glommed onto the nanowires. The bacteria take in the electrons and, similar to the way plants make sugars, convert two carbon dioxide molecules and water into acetate and oxygen.
“These silicon nanowires are essentially like an antenna: They capture the solar photon just like a solar panel,” Yang said. “Within these silicon nanowires, they will generate electrons and feed them to these bacteria. Then the bacteria absorb CO2, do the chemistry and spit out acetate.”
The oxygen is a side benefit and, on Mars, could replenish colonists’ artificial atmosphere, which would mimic Earth’s 21% oxygen environment.
Yang has tweaked the system in other ways — for example, to embed quantum dots in the bacteria’s own membrane that act as solar panels, absorbing sunlight and obviating the need for silicon nanowires. These cyborg bacteria also make acetic acid.
His lab continues to search for ways to up the efficiency of the biohybrid, and is also exploring techniques for genetically engineering the bacteria to make them more versatile and capable of producing a variety of organic compounds.
###
The research is supported by a grant from NASA to the Center for the Utilization of Biological Engineering in Space (CUBES), a multi-university effort to develop techniques for biomanufacturing in space.
UC Berkeley co-authors of the paper are current or former graduate students Yude Su, Stefano Cestellos-Blanco and Ji Min Kim, who contributed equally to the work; and graduate students Yue-xiao Shen, Qiao Kong, Dylan Lu, Chong Liu, Hao Zhang and Yuhong Cao.
From EurekAlert!
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Do Lockdowns Work??

Before this $ % ^ & * lockdown started , I said “ SPEND THE $ 1 TRILLION ON OUR HEALTH SYSTEM AND DON ’ T LOCK THE UNITED STATES DOWN ” !
!
!
And from everything I ’ ve seen up to now , I was right .
Near as I can tell , the lockdowns in various countries have done little & our health system is still inadequate .
However , that ’ s just anecdotal .
So here is some harder data on the question .
First , almost every country has implemented some forms of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to the Chinese-style totalitarian clampdowns .
And as the Koreans have shown , this can work … but only if people are willing to have quarantines enforced with GPS locations and a surveillance state and GPS contact tracing that shows everywhere you ’ ve been in the last two weeks .
As far as I can see , you have to be Korea or China to pull that one off , and no western country has even tried it .
And as a result , there is very little difference between the spread @ @ @ @ @ @ @ death in any of the western countries .
Figure 1 shows the tragic trajectory of death in the 14 countries with the highest death rates .
Figure 1 .
Coronavirus deaths versus the number of days since the country went over 10 deaths per million people .
As you can see , there is very little difference in the death rates between the various countries , despite the fact that they all have differing levels of health interventions to try to prevent the spread .
They ’ re all following the same trajectory @ @ @ @ @ @ @ what kind of health interventions am I referring to ?
Glad you asked .
Over at ACAP you can download a dataset of the different kinds of measures used by different countries .
They list no less than 33 different types of health interventions being used to fight the coronavirus , viz : • Lockdown of refugee/idp camps or other minorities So I used that to see if countries with more of those restrictions fared better .
Here , for example , are the restrictions imposed by South Korea over time .
Some @ @ @ @ @ @ @ or made more rigorous over time : Quarantine , then surveillance , then more rigorous quarantine , then even more rigorous surveillance and quarantine .
I don ’ t believe that Americans would put up with that .
However , being a graphically minded sort of person , I then made a scatterplot of the number of distinct kinds of restrictions a country has imposed versus the number of deaths per ten million in that country .
Figure 2 shows the result : Figure 2 .
Scatterplot , number of kinds of restrictions @ @ @ @ @ @ @ coronavirus deaths per ten thousand .
As you can see , the number of restrictions seems to have little to do with the number of deaths .
For example , here ’ s what Switzerland has done .
These are the different restrictions they ’ ve applied .
So the lack of visible effect is not from a lack of restrictions .
Nor is the lack of visible effect because the restrictions haven ’ t been in place long enough .
Switzerland imposed the first restrictions forty days ago , on the 21st @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
On the 24th of February , the government declared an “ extraordinary situation , ” and banned all private and public events and ordered restaurants and bars to close .
At that point , they had no coronavirus deaths .
They currently have 433 deaths from coronavirus .
Forty days of sanctions with no effect .
Meanwhile , the Swiss have about the same number of deaths per ten million population as say Netherlands , and here ’ s all that the Dutch have done : No lockdown , neither partial nor @ @ @ @ @ @ @ No suspension of flights .
No visa restrictions .
No state of emergency .
No border checks .
And despite that … they are on a par with the Swiss , despite all of the Swiss containment measures .
Or you could look at it another way .
Germany , the US , Portugal , France , and Spain have all instituted the same number of restrictions … but their deaths go from low to high .
So it seems that my intuition was correct .
Unless you are willing to impose a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ measures do very little .
The problem is that this bugger is so insidious .
It has a long incubation period when it is infectious but asymptomatic .
And it can live on surfaces for days .
As a result , in terms of government restrictions , nothing but a major Korean-style full-court press , with surveillance and strict quarantine and a populace willing to follow restrictions to the letter , will cut down the number of cases .
And Americans simply won ’ t do that .
In fact , it ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ shelter in place .
If you go out into the streets of the US , there are lots of people working , lots of people going from place to place , grocery stores full of people … control the virus ?
But regarding controlling the virus , here ’ s another graph .
It ’ s exactly the same as Figure 2 , but it contains Japan as well .
Hmm … they ’ re in the danger zone , near to Korea and China , so what extreme health measures are they @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ?
That ’ s all the restrictions ?
… my only conclusion from that is simple .
The one virus health practice that distinguishes Japan from most of the world is that they all wear masks in public .
Even the liberal US news media is noticing the effectiveness of masks—a CNN story is headlined “ Face masks and coronavirus : Asia may have been right and the rest of the world is coming around ” … seems the US specialists were wrong again .
Go figure .
A mask cuts transmission down @ @ @ @ @ @ @ keeps you from touching your mouth or nose .
This both protects you until you can wash your hands , and if you are infected it keeps you from spreading the virus onto hard surfaces to infect others .
Next , it keeps you from sneezing or coughing a billion virus particles into the air .
It ’ s less effective at preventing you from inhaling such particles , although it helps with that as well .
And it is that sneezing and coughing that is the major way that the virus is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is showing us , wearing a mask cuts the transmission rate way down .
We ’ re starting to get there , but it may be too little too late .
I see that the genius medical experts who recommended the ineffective drastic lockdown are now thinking about recommending that Americans wear masks .
The headline in Politico says “ Fauci : Mask-wearing recommendation under ‘ very serious consideration ’ ” … under consideration ?
?
They ’ ve destroyed the American economy without looking back , but a simple recommendation to wear @ @ @ @ @ @ @ serious consideration ” ?
We can see above that there ’ s very little upside to the American lockdown … so let ’ s look at the downside .
First , the economic damage from the current insane “ shelter-in-place ” regulations designed to thwart the coronavirus is already huge—lost jobs , shuttered businesses , economic downturn , stock market losses .
This doesn ’ t count the personal cost in things like increased suicides and domestic and other violence .
The people who made the decision obviously were led by doctors , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not listen to economists or social scientists , which was lethal .
To partially compensate the populace for those stupendous economic losses , we ’ ve just thrown two TRILLION dollars in the general direction of the problem .
That ’ s trillion with a “ T ” .
Most people have no idea how much a trillion dollars is .
Consider it this way .
Suppose you were an immortal who made so much money that you were able to spend a million dollars a day forever .
In the first week @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 20,000 each and give them to the various states .
The next day you buy 200,000 face masks at $ 5 a pop , epidemic prices .
Then you decide to take a year and buy a field hospital every day , 365 of them at a million dollars each .
That feels so good that you decide to set up full hospitals .
They ’ re something like 1.5 million dollars per bed .
So you can buy a 250-bed hospital per year .
You spend the next two hundred years doing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 50,000 new beds .
Now that ’ s only about a hundred years of spending a million bucks a day .
Suppose further that you started spending one megabuck per day , that ’ s a full million dollars each and every day including weekends , back on January First way back in the Year One .
And imagine that you spent a million dollars a day every day right up to the present , buying medical equipment , expanding medical schools , purchasing test kits , a million dollars a day from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ year 2020 .
… you still would have spent far less than a trillion dollars , only about three-quarters of a trillion .
And to spend two trillion , you ’ d have to spend a million dollars a day for 5,500 years .
Can you imagine what our medical system would be like if we spent a million dollars a day on it for fifty-five-hundred years ?
Instead , we ’ ve pissed the two trillion away on repairing the damage caused by the lockdown without getting the economy started again , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that got loaded onto the bill .
Consummate financial idiocy that only politicians could ever think was reasonable , logical , or practical .
Mark Twain was right when he said “ Suppose that you were a Member of Congress .
And suppose further that you were an idiot .
But I repeat myself.
” So … how about we all put on masks , keep washing our hands , give up our steamy midnight rendezvous ( rendezvous ? )
with pangolins , increase testing particularly of our medical personnel , start testing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lockdown ?
The pluted bloatocrats in Congress are already dreaming up a new appropriations bill to waste another trillion dollars or so that we can not afford .
Me , I say , let ’ s quit while we ’ re behind and get back to work .
Here on my forest hillside where the redwood trees scratch the sky , it ’ s my great fortune that my daughter , her husband , and my infant granddaughter have come to spend the lockdown in the woods … and both I and my @ @ @ @ @ @ @ here .
They ’ re working from home , and we ’ re retired , so all is well chez nous .
So stay well in these parlous times , dear friends .
I see that Chloroquine has been approved in India for Covid-19 treatment .
I had malaria four times , so I know that drug up close and personal .
Plus I took it once a week for a year as malaria prophylaxis .
And I used to take three weekly doses per day for three days in a row if @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that would stop it in its tracks .
So I ’ d take it again in a minute .
And I also saw that the advisor to the Italian Health Minister has said that only 12 % of the Italian deaths were actually deaths FROM Covid-19 , and the rest were deaths WITH Covid-19 .
So things may be looking up .
Regards to everyone , The Usual : When you comment please quote the exact words you are discussing , so we can all be clear who and what you are referring @ @

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach
[UPDATE—
Well, I got up today and fired up the weed wacker and went out to sweat a bit in the sun. You can see the mowed part at the bottom and the much larger unmowed part behind … I limit my fun to one tank of gas per day, makes my hands shake afterward.
And while turning tall grass into short grass, I thought …
Rats! I asked the wrong question!
The question is not “Do Lockdowns Work”? The answer to that is obviously yes. All different types of those restrictions, from the mildest to the most draconian, will have some effect on the speed of transmission. So “Do lockdowns work?” is meaningless.
The real question is, “Is Extending Lockdowns Worth The Cost?”
That is to say, will any further extension of the lockdowns make any difference? From what people say below, we don’t see the effects of the lockdowns for three weeks or so after the imposition of the sanctions. Now, thanks to a most interesting site provided by my generally aggravating friend Steve Mosher, the future of the US looks like this (the site also has individual states):
If the peak is in two weeks, and the effects of what we do today won’t be visible for two weeks, and at this point the possible changes are small, is that worth the huge damage this lockdown is doing?
The problem that I see is the cost. One week of lockdown has cost us two trillion dollars, along with thousands of failed businesses, people unable to retire because their 401Ks are in the toilet, hundreds of thousands unemployed, a big uptick in domestic violence, and lots of jobs lost.
Now, I estimate that something on the order of 80,000 people will die in the US from this virus. (Curious me, I also looked up the estimate from the model above … 93,000.) Suppose the “flattening the curve” saves 10% of them. By all indications, it won’t, but let’s use that number.
That means that we have spent two trillion dollars to save maybe 8,000 people.
And that, in turn, means that we’ve spent a QUARTER BILLION DOLLARS PER PERSON, most of them over 70 like me but unlike me with other diseases, and put our economy in the crapper in the bargain. I may be wrong, but somehow I don’t think my life is worth a quarter billion dollars.
Now, think about the alternative—voluntary self-isolation, particularly of geezers like me, along with putting two billion into field hospitals, quarantine hospitals, accelerated doctor and nurse training in quarantine procedures, ventilators, masks, quarantine ambulances, drug production of antibiotics, chloroquine, and whatever drugs we need, instructional videos on social distancing, and the like.
I’d say there’s a good chance that we could save more than the 8,000 people by that method, and no matter how many we saved, we’d end up with a) a medical system second to none, b) a humming economy that just had two trillion poured into increased production, c) on-shoring our drug-production industry, d) no business losses, unemployment, or job losses, and e) no uptick in domestic violence.
Call me crazy, but I do NOT want to spend another two trillion dollars to prop up a mostly “feel-good” lockdown ..
Given the general ineffectiveness of these various lockdown-type interventions in the Western countries, and given that a couple weeks of lockdown have already cost us a trillion dollars and hundreds of thousands of vanished jobs and failed businesses and unemployed workers …
… given all of that, I have to ask … is yesterday too soon to end the lockdowns?
Don’t give up. Just end the stay-at-home shelter-in-place regulations. Leave a strong VOLUNTARY self-isolation on geezers like myself, retired folks. Test incoming visitors to the US. Keep washing hands. START WEARING MASKS!.
Let’s get the country back to work before any more people go bankrupt or are unable to pay their rent.
Anyhow, that was my morning. How was yours? I’ve changed the title of the post, and left the original title as well, for searching purposes. And now, here’s my original post.
Best wishes to all for good health,
w.]
Before this $%^&* lockdown started, I said “SPEND THE $1 TRILLION ON OUR HEALTH SYSTEM AND DON’T LOCK THE UNITED STATES DOWN”!!!
(See, back then they were only talking one trillion. But it’s politicians spending OPM, so of course now it’s two trillion.)
And from everything I’ve seen up to now, I was right. Near as I can tell, the lockdowns in various countries have done little & our health system is still inadequate. However, that’s just anecdotal. So here is some harder data on the question.
First, almost every country has implemented some forms of health interventions, ranging from the mild to the Chinese-style totalitarian clampdowns.
And as the Koreans have shown, this can work … but only if people are willing to have quarantines enforced with GPS locations and a surveillance state and GPS contact tracing that shows everywhere you’ve been in the last two weeks. As far as I can see, you have to be Korea or China to pull that one off, and no western country has even tried it.
And as a result, there is very little difference between the spread of disease and the concomitant rate of death in any of the western countries. Figure 1 shows the tragic trajectory of death in the 14 countries with the highest death rates.
Figure 1. Coronavirus deaths versus the number of days since the country went over 10 deaths per million people.
As you can see, there is very little difference in the death rates between the various countries, despite the fact that they all have differing levels of health interventions to try to prevent the spread. They’re all following the same trajectory.
Now, other than lockdowns, what kind of health interventions am I referring to? Glad you asked. Over at ACAP you can download a dataset of the different kinds of measures used by different countries. They list no less than 33 different types of health interventions being used to fight the coronavirus, viz:
Additional health/documents requirements upon arrival
Amendments to funeral and burial regulations
Awareness campaigns
Border checks
Border closure
Changes in prison-related policies
Checkpoints within the country
Complete border closure
Curfews
Domestic travel restrictions
Economic measures
Emergency administrative structures activated or established
Full lockdown
General recommendations
Health screenings in airports and border crossings
Humanitarian exemptions
International flights suspension
Introduction of quarantine policies
Limit product imports/exports
Limit public gatherings
Lockdown of refugee/idp camps or other minorities
Mass population Testing
Military deployment
Obligatory medical tests not related to COVID-19
Partial lockdown
Psychological assistance and medical social work
Public services closure
Schools closure
State of emergency declared
Strengthening the public health system
Surveillance and monitoring
Testing policy
Visa restrictions
So I used that to see if countries with more of those restrictions fared better. Here, for example, are the restrictions imposed by South Korea over time. Some are listed twice because they were expanded or made more rigorous over time:
Health screenings in airports and border crossings
Limit public gatherings
Visa restrictions
Visa restrictions
Introduction of quarantine policies
Schools closure
Introduction of quarantine policies
Additional health/documents requirements upon arrival
Surveillance and monitoring
General recommendations
Additional health/documents requirements upon arrival
General recommendations
Partial lockdown
General recommendations
Introduction of quarantine policies
Psychological assistance and medical social work
Introduction of quarantine policies
Surveillance and monitoring
Quarantine, then surveillance, then more rigorous quarantine, then even more rigorous surveillance and quarantine. I don’t believe that Americans would put up with that.
However, being a graphically minded sort of person, I then made a scatterplot of the number of distinct kinds of restrictions a country has imposed versus the number of deaths per ten million in that country. Figure 2 shows the result:
Figure 2. Scatterplot, number of kinds of restrictions to try to prevent viral spread versus coronavirus deaths per ten thousand.
As you can see, the number of restrictions seems to have little to do with the number of deaths. For example, here’s what Switzerland has done. These are the different restrictions they’ve applied.
Limit public gatherings
Border checks
Visa restrictions
State of emergency declared
Schools closure
State of emergency declared
Border checks
Visa restrictions
General recommendations
Strengthening the public health system
Awareness campaigns
Testing policy
Limit public gatherings
Border closure
Limit public gatherings
Economic measures
Limit public gatherings
Partial lockdown
Full lockdown
Partial lockdown
Economic measures
Economic measures
Limit product imports/exports
Military deployment
Limit public gatherings
International flights suspension
Limit public gatherings
Strengthening the public health system
Visa restrictions
Economic measures
So the lack of visible effect is not from a lack of restrictions. Nor is the lack of visible effect because the restrictions haven’t been in place long enough. Switzerland imposed the first restrictions forty days ago, on the 21st of February. They closed the schools. On the 24th of February, the government declared an “extraordinary situation,” and banned all private and public events and ordered restaurants and bars to close. At that point, they had no coronavirus deaths. [UPDATE: A couple of people said that Switzerland’s restrictions had not been in place that long. Upon rechecking my sources, I find they were right and I was 100% wrong. However, my point remains—the different restrictions haven’t made any detectable difference to date, and the crunch is coming in one or two weeks for most countries. So any effect will be minimal, if not detectable, and meanwhile the economic and human cost is horrendous.]
They currently have 433 deaths from coronavirus. Forty days of sanctions with no effect.
Meanwhile, the Swiss have about the same number of deaths per ten million population as say Netherlands, and here’s all that the Dutch have done:
Introduction of quarantine policies
Limit public gatherings
Schools closure
Public services closure
General recommendations
Economic measures
Emergency administrative structures activated or established
No lockdown, neither partial nor full. No limitations on import/export. No suspension of flights. No visa restrictions. No state of emergency. No border checks.
And despite that … they are on a par with the Swiss, despite all of the Swiss containment measures.
Or you could look at it another way. Germany, the US, Portugal, France, and Spain have all instituted the same number of restrictions … but their deaths go from low to high.
So it seems that my intuition was correct. Unless you are willing to impose a full-blown police and surveillance state, these measures do very little. The problem is that this bugger is so insidious. It has a long incubation period when it is infectious but asymptomatic. And it can live on surfaces for days. As a result, in terms of government restrictions, nothing but a major Korean-style full-court press, with surveillance and strict quarantine and a populace willing to follow restrictions to the letter, will cut down the number of cases.
And Americans simply won’t do that. In fact, it’s impossible to get Americans to just shelter in place. If you go out into the streets of the US, there are lots of people working, lots of people going from place to place, grocery stores full of people … control the virus?
I don’t think so.
But regarding controlling the virus, here’s another graph. It’s exactly the same as Figure 2, but it contains Japan as well.
Hmm … they’re in the danger zone, near to Korea and China, so what extreme health measures are they practicing? Here you go …
Health screenings in airports and border crossings
Visa restrictions
Whaaaa? That’s all the restrictions? … my only conclusion from that is simple.
WEAR A MASK.
The one virus health practice that distinguishes Japan from most of the world is that they all wear masks in public. Even the liberal US news media is noticing the effectiveness of masks—a CNN story is headlined “Face masks and coronavirus: Asia may have been right and the rest of the world is coming around” … seems the US specialists were wrong again. Go figure.
A mask cuts transmission down in two ways. First, it keeps you from touching your mouth or nose. This both protects you until you can wash your hands, and if you are infected it keeps you from spreading the virus onto hard surfaces to infect others.
Next, it keeps you from sneezing or coughing a billion virus particles into the air. It’s less effective at preventing you from inhaling such particles, although it helps with that as well. And it is that sneezing and coughing that is the major way that the virus is spread.
And overall, as Japan is showing us, wearing a mask cuts the transmission rate way down.
We’re starting to get there, but it may be too little too late. I see that the genius medical experts who recommended the ineffective drastic lockdown are now thinking about recommending that Americans wear masks. The headline in Politico says “Fauci: Mask-wearing recommendation under ‘very serious consideration’” … under consideration?? They’ve destroyed the American economy without looking back, but a simple recommendation to wear a mask in public requires “very serious consideration”?
Sigh …
We can see above that there’s very little upside to the American lockdown … so let’s look at the downside. First, the economic damage from the current insane “shelter-in-place” regulations designed to thwart the coronavirus is already huge—lost jobs, shuttered businesses, economic downturn, stock market losses. This doesn’t count the personal cost in things like increased suicides and domestic and other violence. The people who made the decision obviously were led by doctors, which was good, but they did not listen to economists or social scientists, which was lethal.
To partially compensate the populace for those stupendous economic losses, we’ve just thrown two TRILLION dollars in the general direction of the problem. That’s trillion with a “T”. Most people have no idea how much a trillion dollars is. Consider it this way.
Suppose you were an immortal who made so much money that you were able to spend a million dollars a day forever. In the first week, you buy 350 ventilators at $20,000 each and give them to the various states. The next day you buy 200,000 face masks at $5 a pop, epidemic prices. Then you decide to take a year and buy a field hospital every day, 365 of them at a million dollars each. That feels so good that you decide to set up full hospitals. They’re something like 1.5 million dollars per bed. So you can buy a 250-bed hospital per year. You spend the next two hundred years doing that, two hundred new hospitals, 50,000 new beds.
Now that’s only about a hundred years of spending a million bucks a day. Suppose further that you started spending one megabuck per day, that’s a full million dollars each and every day including weekends, back on January First way back in the Year One. And imagine that you spent a million dollars a day every day right up to the present, buying medical equipment, expanding medical schools, purchasing test kits, a million dollars a day from the year 1 right up to the year 2020.
Guess what …
…
… you still would have spent far less than a trillion dollars, only about three-quarters of a trillion. And to spend two trillion, you’d have to spend a million dollars a day for 5,500 years.
Can you imagine what our medical system would be like if we spent a million dollars a day on it for fifty-five-hundred years?
Instead, we’ve pissed the two trillion away on repairing the damage caused by the lockdown without getting the economy started again, plus wasting it on all the pork that got loaded onto the bill.
Consummate financial idiocy that only politicians could ever think was reasonable, logical, or practical. Mark Twain was right when he said “Suppose that you were a Member of Congress. And suppose further that you were an idiot. But I repeat myself.”
So … how about we all put on masks, keep washing our hands, give up our steamy midnight rendezvous (rendezvous?) with pangolins, increase testing particularly of our medical personnel, start testing for antibodies, and end this stupid lockdown? The pluted bloatocrats in Congress are already dreaming up a new appropriations bill to waste another trillion dollars or so that we cannot afford. Me, I say, let’s quit while we’re behind and get back to work.
Here on my forest hillside where the redwood trees scratch the sky, it’s my great fortune that my daughter, her husband, and my infant granddaughter have come to spend the lockdown in the woods … and both I and my gorgeous ex-fiancée are overjoyed that they are here. They’re working from home, and we’re retired, so all is well chez nous.
So stay well in these parlous times, dear friends. I see that Chloroquine has been approved in India for Covid-19 treatment. I had malaria four times, so I know that drug up close and personal. Plus I took it once a week for a year as malaria prophylaxis. And I used to take three weekly doses per day for three days in a row if I felt malaria coming on, and that would stop it in its tracks. So I’d take it again in a minute.
And I also saw that the advisor to the Italian Health Minister has said that only 12% of the Italian deaths were actually deaths FROM Covid-19, and the rest were deaths WITH Covid-19. So things may be looking up.
Regards to everyone,
w.
The Usual: When you comment please quote the exact words you are discussing, so we can all be clear who and what you are referring to.
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wattsupwiththat--2020-04-02--Climate Research Universities Unite to Accelerate Action

The University of Sydney has decided that despite Coronavirus they didn ’ t want to delay the launch of their new climate alliance , because the climate problem is so urgent .
Wednesday 2 April 2020 : An International Universities Climate Alliance ( ‘ Climate Alliance ’ ) has been established to help communicate research insights on the most effective means to meet the unprecedented global challenge of climate change .
UNSW Sydney is facilitating the establishment of the Climate Alliance in its first year and has invited 40 of the world ’ s leading climate research universities to join @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are to work together to identify the most effective ways to communicate research-based facts related to climate change to the public .
Members will engage in work across climate change science , impact , mitigation strategies and adaptation .
Membership comprises a global network of universities , united by their dedication to producing critical climate research .
The Climate Alliance benefits from a multi-disciplinary research focus around the most important research themes to enable greater engagement with policymakers , educators and business leaders looking to apply the latest research findings to accelerate climate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and Vice Chancellor , Professor Ian Jacobs initiated the creation of the Climate Alliance because of the vital role universities play in advancing the science and solutions in this field , saying “ This new Alliance will be at the forefront of the international conversation around addressing climate change.
” Notwithstanding current urgencies around the coronavirus pandemic , the members decided not to delay formation of the Alliance due to the pressing and ongoing need to accelerate climate action .
Professor Matthew England , academic lead of the UNSW Climate Change Grand Challenge @ @ @ @ @ @ @ new era in engagement between researchers and the public ; “ Worldwide interest to act on climate change is strong but the pace of action has been far too slow .
The Alliance aims to accelerate the global response by being a leading voice for scientifically based mitigation and adaptation strategies.
” Please contact us with any media enquiries .

Guest essay by Eric Worrall
The University of Sydney has decided that despite Coronavirus they didn’t want to delay the launch of their new climate alliance, because the climate problem is so urgent.
CLIMATE RESEARCH UNIVERSITIES UNITE TO ACCELERATE ACTION
Wednesday 2 April 2020: An International Universities Climate Alliance (‘Climate Alliance’) has been established to help communicate research insights on the most effective means to meet the unprecedented global challenge of climate change.
UNSW Sydney is facilitating the establishment of the Climate Alliance in its first year and has invited 40 of the world’s leading climate research universities to join the Alliance to date. Alliance members are to work together to identify the most effective ways to communicate research-based facts related to climate change to the public. Members will engage in work across climate change science, impact, mitigation strategies and adaptation.
Membership comprises a global network of universities, united by their dedication to producing critical climate research. The Climate Alliance benefits from a multi-disciplinary research focus around the most important research themes to enable greater engagement with policymakers, educators and business leaders looking to apply the latest research findings to accelerate climate action.
UNSW Sydney’s President and Vice Chancellor, Professor Ian Jacobs initiated the creation of the Climate Alliance because of the vital role universities play in advancing the science and solutions in this field, saying “This new Alliance will be at the forefront of the international conversation around addressing climate change.”
Notwithstanding current urgencies around the coronavirus pandemic, the members decided not to delay formation of the Alliance due to the pressing and ongoing need to accelerate climate action.
Professor Matthew England, academic lead of the UNSW Climate Change Grand Challenge, hopes this Alliance will encourage a new era in engagement between researchers and the public; “Worldwide interest to act on climate change is strong but the pace of action has been far too slow. The Alliance aims to accelerate the global response by being a leading voice for scientifically based mitigation and adaptation strategies.”
Please contact us with any media enquiries.


wattsupwiththat--2020-04-02--Australia Bushfire Smoke Now Warming the Lower Stratosphere? March 2020 Update

Last month I noted how the global average lower stratospheric temperature had warmed considerably in recent months , especially in @ @ @ @ @ it to smoke from the Australian bushfires entering the lower stratosphere .
You can read @ @ @ @ @ that the effect was unlikely to be due to the recent Taal volcanic eruption .
@ @ @ @ @ as clearly seen in regional averages ( e.g .
tropics or Southern Hemisphere ) because @ @ @ @ @ changes which are compensated for by changes of the opposite sign in other regions , @ @ @ @ @ ( sinking motion ) or cooling ( rising motion ) in the statically stable stratosphere @ @ @ @ @ show the best signal of something new going on , even if that something new @ @ @ @ @ specific region .

From Dr. Roy Spencer’s Blog
April 1st, 2020 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.
Last month I noted how the global average lower stratospheric temperature had warmed considerably in recent months, especially in February, and tentatively attributed it to smoke from the Australian bushfires entering the lower stratosphere. You can read more there about my reasoning that the effect was unlikely to be due to the recent Taal volcanic eruption.
Here’s the March 2020 update, showing continued warming.
The effect cannot be as clearly seen in regional averages (e.g. tropics or Southern Hemisphere) because those regions routinely see large changes which are compensated for by changes of the opposite sign in other regions, due to strong adiabatic warming (sinking motion) or cooling (rising motion) in the statically stable stratosphere. Thus, global averages show the best signal of something new going on, even if that something new is only occurring in a specific region.
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wattsupwiththat--2020-04-02--San Francisco bans reusable bags in coronavirus fight

San Francisco is banning reusable shopping bags to prevent outside germs from entering grocery stores as the coronavirus pandemic affects @ @ @ @ @ The new ordinance from the San Francisco Department of Public Health aims to reinforce existing @ @ @ @ @ customers from bringing their own bags , mugs , or other reusable items to essential @ @ @ @ @ statement .
San Francisco was one of the first cities in the U.S. to ban @ @ @ @ @ bags in 2007 to reduce the environmental impact caused by plastic waste , according to @ @ @ @ @ London Breed ( D ) on Wednesday extended stay-at-home orders for the public , running @ @ @ @ @ I can ’ t reiterate enough how important it is for all of us to @ @ @ @ @ all of us to continue to be good citizens , to cooperate , ” Breed @ @

From The Hill
San Francisco is banning reusable shopping bags to prevent outside germs from entering grocery stores as the coronavirus pandemic affects cities around the country,
The new ordinance from the San Francisco Department of Public Health aims to reinforce existing social distancing protocols by restricting customers from bringing their own bags, mugs, or other reusable items to essential stores, according to a statement.
San Francisco was one of the first cities in the U.S. to ban the use of plastic shopping bags in 2007 to reduce the environmental impact caused by plastic waste, according to SFGate.com.
San Francisco Mayor London Breed (D) on Wednesday extended stay-at-home orders for the public, running until May 3.
“I can’t reiterate enough how important it is for all of us to continue to comply, for all of us to continue to be good citizens, to cooperate,” Breed said.
Today we officially extended the stay at home health order through May 3. I want to thank the people of San Francisco for continuing to do their part to save lives. I know this isn’t easy but we will get through it together. pic.twitter.com/4rggISBnQv — London Breed (@LondonBreed) March 31, 2020
Full article here.
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wattsupwiththat--2020-04-02--Traces of ancient rainforest in Antarctica point to a warmer prehistoric world

Researchers have found evidence of rainforests near the South Pole 90 million years ago , suggesting the climate was exceptionally warm at the time .
A team from the UK and Germany discovered forest soil from the Cretaceous period within 900 km of the South Pole .
Their analysis of the preserved roots , pollen and spores shows that the world at that time was a lot warmer than previously thought .
The discovery and analysis were carried out by an international team of researchers led by geoscientists from the Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research @ @ @ @ @ @ @ researchers .
Their findings are published today in Nature .
Co-author Professor Tina van de Flierdt , from the Department of Earth Science & Engineering at Imperial , said : “ The preservation of this 90-million-year-old forest is exceptional , but even more surprising is the world it reveals .
Even during months of darkness , swampy temperate rainforests were able to grow close to the South Pole , revealing an even warmer climate than we expected.
” The work also suggests that the carbon dioxide ( CO2 ) levels in the atmosphere @ @ @ @ @ @ @ period , 115-80 million years ago , challenging climate models of the period .
The mid-Cretaceous was the heyday of the dinosaurs but was also the warmest period in the past 140 million years , with temperatures in the tropics as high as 35 degrees Celsius and sea level 170 metres higher than today .
However , little was known about the environment south of the Antarctic Circle at this time .
Now , researchers have discovered evidence of a temperate rainforest in the region , such as would be found in New @ @ @ @ @ @ @ four-month polar night , meaning for a third of every year there was no life-giving sunlight at all .
The presence of the forest suggests average temperatures were around 12 degrees Celsius and that there was unlikely to be an ice cap at the South Pole at the time .
The evidence for the Antarctic forest comes from a core of sediment drilled into the seabed near the Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers in West Antarctica .
One section of the core , that would have originally been deposited on land , caught @ @ @ @ @ @ @ colour .
The team CT-scanned the section of the core and discovered a dense network of fossil roots , which was so well preserved that they could make out individual cell structures .
The sample also contained countless traces of pollen and spores from plants , including the first remnants of flowering plants ever found at these high Antarctic latitudes .
To reconstruct the environment of this preserved forest , the team assessed the climatic conditions under which the plants ’ modern descendants live , as well as analysing temperature and precipitation indicators @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the annual mean air temperature was around 12 degrees Celsius ; roughly two degrees warmer than the mean temperature in Germany today .
Average summer temperatures were around 19 degrees Celsius ; water temperatures in the rivers and swamps reached up to 20 degrees ; and the amount and intensity of rainfall in West Antarctica were similar to those in today ’ s Wales .
To get these conditions , the researchers conclude that 90 million years ago the Antarctic continent was covered with dense vegetation , there were no land-ice masses on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the South Pole region , and the carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere was far higher than previously assumed for the Cretaceous .
Lead author Dr Johann Klages , from the Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research , said : “ Before our study , the general assumption was that the global carbon dioxide concentration in the Cretaceous was roughly 1000 ppm .
But in our model-based experiments , it took concentration levels of 1120 to 1680 ppm to reach the average temperatures back then in the Antarctic .
@

Imperial College London
Researchers have found evidence of rainforests near the South Pole 90 million years ago, suggesting the climate was exceptionally warm at the time.
A team from the UK and Germany discovered forest soil from the Cretaceous period within 900 km of the South Pole. Their analysis of the preserved roots, pollen and spores shows that the world at that time was a lot warmer than previously thought.
The discovery and analysis were carried out by an international team of researchers led by geoscientists from the Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research in Germany and including Imperial College London researchers. Their findings are published today in Nature.
Co-author Professor Tina van de Flierdt, from the Department of Earth Science & Engineering at Imperial, said: “The preservation of this 90-million-year-old forest is exceptional, but even more surprising is the world it reveals. Even during months of darkness, swampy temperate rainforests were able to grow close to the South Pole, revealing an even warmer climate than we expected.”
The work also suggests that the carbon dioxide (CO2) levels in the atmosphere were higher than expected during the mid-Cretaceous period, 115-80 million years ago, challenging climate models of the period.
The mid-Cretaceous was the heyday of the dinosaurs but was also the warmest period in the past 140 million years, with temperatures in the tropics as high as 35 degrees Celsius and sea level 170 metres higher than today.
However, little was known about the environment south of the Antarctic Circle at this time. Now, researchers have discovered evidence of a temperate rainforest in the region, such as would be found in New Zealand today. This was despite a four-month polar night, meaning for a third of every year there was no life-giving sunlight at all.
The presence of the forest suggests average temperatures were around 12 degrees Celsius and that there was unlikely to be an ice cap at the South Pole at the time.
The evidence for the Antarctic forest comes from a core of sediment drilled into the seabed near the Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers in West Antarctica. One section of the core, that would have originally been deposited on land, caught the researchers’ attention with its strange colour.
The team CT-scanned the section of the core and discovered a dense network of fossil roots, which was so well preserved that they could make out individual cell structures. The sample also contained countless traces of pollen and spores from plants, including the first remnants of flowering plants ever found at these high Antarctic latitudes.
To reconstruct the environment of this preserved forest, the team assessed the climatic conditions under which the plants’ modern descendants live, as well as analysing temperature and precipitation indicators within the sample.
They found that the annual mean air temperature was around 12 degrees Celsius; roughly two degrees warmer than the mean temperature in Germany today. Average summer temperatures were around 19 degrees Celsius; water temperatures in the rivers and swamps reached up to 20 degrees; and the amount and intensity of rainfall in West Antarctica were similar to those in today’s Wales.
To get these conditions, the researchers conclude that 90 million years ago the Antarctic continent was covered with dense vegetation, there were no land-ice masses on the scale of an ice sheet in the South Pole region, and the carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere was far higher than previously assumed for the Cretaceous.
Lead author Dr Johann Klages, from the Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, said: “Before our study, the general assumption was that the global carbon dioxide concentration in the Cretaceous was roughly 1000 ppm. But in our model-based experiments, it took concentration levels of 1120 to 1680 ppm to reach the average temperatures back then in the Antarctic.”
###
From EurekAlert!
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wattsupwiththat--2020-04-01--Is Extending Lockdowns Worth The Cost? (was Do Lockdowns Work?)

Well , I got up today and fired up the weed wacker and went out to sweat a bit in the sun .
You can see the mowed part at the bottom and the much larger unmowed part behind … I limit my fun to one tank of gas per day , makes my hands shake afterward .
And while turning tall grass into short grass , I thought … The question is not “ Do Lockdowns Work ” ?
The answer to that is obviously yes .
All different types of those restrictions , from the mildest to the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on the speed of transmission .
So “ Do lockdowns work ?
” is meaningless .
The real question is , “ Is Extending Lockdowns Worth The Cost ?
” That is to say , will any further extension of the lockdowns make any difference ?
From what people say below , we don ’ t see the effects of the lockdowns for three weeks or so after the imposition of the sanctions .
Now , thanks to a most interesting site provided by my generally aggravating friend Steve Mosher , the future @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the site also has individual states ) : If the peak is in two weeks , and the effects of what we do today won ’ t be visible for two weeks , and at this point the possible changes are small , is that worth the huge damage this lockdown is doing ?
Given the general ineffectiveness of these various lockdown-type interventions in the Western countries , and given that a couple weeks of lockdown have already cost us a trillion dollars and hundreds of thousands of vanished jobs and failed businesses @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of that , I have to ask , is yesterday too soon to end the lockdowns ?
Don ’ t give up .
Just end the stay-at-home shelter-in-place regulations .
Leave a strong VOLUNTARY self-isolation on geezers like myself , retired folks .
Test incoming visitors to the US .
Keep washing hands .
START WEARING MASKS !
.
Let ’ s get the country back to work before any more people go bankrupt or are unable to pay their rent .
Anyhow , that was my morning .
How was yours ?
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ the post , and left the original title as well , for searching purposes .
And now , here ’ s my original post .
Best wishes to all for good health , Before this $ % ^ & * lockdown started , I said “ SPEND THE $ 1 TRILLION ON OUR HEALTH SYSTEM AND DON ’ T LOCK THE UNITED STATES DOWN ” !
!
!
And from everything I ’ ve seen up to now , I was right .
Near as I can tell , the lockdowns in various @ @ @ @ @ @ @ system is still inadequate .
However , that ’ s just anecdotal .
So here is some harder data on the question .
First , almost every country has implemented some forms of health interventions , ranging from the mild to the Chinese-style totalitarian clampdowns .
And as the Koreans have shown , this can work … but only if people are willing to have quarantines enforced with GPS locations and a surveillance state and GPS contact tracing that shows everywhere you ’ ve been in the last two weeks .
As far @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to be Korea or China to pull that one off , and no western country has even tried it .
And as a result , there is very little difference between the spread of disease and the concomitant rate of death in any of the western countries .
Figure 1 shows the tragic trajectory of death in the 14 countries with the highest death rates .
Figure 1 .
Coronavirus deaths versus the number of days since the country went over 10 deaths per million people .
As you can see , there @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rates between the various countries , despite the fact that they all have differing levels of health interventions to try to prevent the spread .
They ’ re all following the same trajectory .
Now , other than lockdowns , what kind of health interventions am I referring to ?
Glad you asked .
Over at ACAP you can download a dataset of the different kinds of measures used by different countries .
They list no less than 33 different types of health interventions being used to fight the coronavirus , viz : @ @ @ @ @ @ @ minorities So I used that to see if countries with more of those restrictions fared better .
Here , for example , are the restrictions imposed by South Korea over time .
Some are listed twice because they were expanded or made more rigorous over time : Quarantine , then surveillance , then more rigorous quarantine , then even more rigorous surveillance and quarantine .
I don ’ t believe that Americans would put up with that .
However , being a graphically minded sort of person , I then made a scatterplot @ @ @ @ @ @ @ restrictions a country has imposed versus the number of deaths per ten million in that country .
Figure 2 shows the result : Figure 2 .
Scatterplot , number of kinds of restrictions to try to prevent viral spread versus coronavirus deaths per ten thousand .
As you can see , the number of restrictions seems to have little to do with the number of deaths .
For example , here ’ s what Switzerland has done .
These are the different restrictions they ’ ve applied .
So the lack of visible @ @ @ @ @ @ @ restrictions .
Nor is the lack of visible effect because the restrictions haven ’ t been in place long enough .
Switzerland imposed the first restrictions forty days ago , on the 21st of February .
They closed the schools .
On the 24th of February , the government declared an “ extraordinary situation , ” and banned all private and public events and ordered restaurants and bars to close .
At that point , they had no coronavirus deaths .
[ UPDATE : A couple of people said that Switzerland ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ long .
Upon rechecking my sources , I find they were right and I was 100 % wrong .
However , my point remains—the different restrictions haven ’ t made any detectable difference to date , and the crunch is coming in one or two weeks for most countries .
So any effect will be minimal , if not detectable , and meanwhile the economic and human cost is horrendous . ]
They currently have 433 deaths from coronavirus .
Forty days of sanctions with no effect .
Meanwhile , the Swiss have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ten million population as say Netherlands , and here ’ s all that the Dutch have done : No lockdown , neither partial nor full .
No limitations on import/export .
No suspension of flights .
No visa restrictions .
No state of emergency .
No border checks .
And despite that … they are on a par with the Swiss , despite all of the Swiss containment measures .
Or you could look at it another way .
Germany , the US , Portugal , France , and Spain have all instituted @ @ @ @ @ @ @ their deaths go from low to high .
So it seems that my intuition was correct .
Unless you are willing to impose a full-blown police and surveillance state , these measures do very little .
The problem is that this bugger is so insidious .
It has a long incubation period when it is infectious but asymptomatic .
And it can live on surfaces for days .
As a result , in terms of government restrictions , nothing but a major Korean-style full-court press , with surveillance and strict quarantine and a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ letter , will cut down the number of cases .
And Americans simply won ’ t do that .
In fact , it ’ s impossible to get Americans to just shelter in place .
If you go out into the streets of the US , there are lots of people working , lots of people going from place to place , grocery stores full of people … control the virus ?
But regarding controlling the virus , here ’ s another graph .
It ’ s exactly the same as Figure 2 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Hmm … they ’ re in the danger zone , near to Korea and China , so what extreme health measures are they practicing ?
Here you go … Whaaaa ?
That ’ s all the restrictions ?
… my only conclusion from that is simple .
The one virus health practice that distinguishes Japan from most of the world is that they all wear masks in public .
Even the liberal US news media is noticing the effectiveness of masks—a CNN story is headlined “ Face masks and coronavirus : Asia @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the world is coming around ” … seems the US specialists were wrong again .
Go figure .
A mask cuts transmission down in two ways .
First , it keeps you from touching your mouth or nose .
This both protects you until you can wash your hands , and if you are infected it keeps you from spreading the virus onto hard surfaces to infect others .
Next , it keeps you from sneezing or coughing a billion virus particles into the air .
It ’ s less effective at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ although it helps with that as well .
And it is that sneezing and coughing that is the major way that the virus is spread .
And overall , as Japan is showing us , wearing a mask cuts the transmission rate way down .
We ’ re starting to get there , but it may be too little too late .
I see that the genius medical experts who recommended the ineffective drastic lockdown are now thinking about recommending that Americans wear masks .
The headline in Politico says “ Fauci : @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ ” … under consideration ?
?
They ’ ve destroyed the American economy without looking back , but a simple recommendation to wear a mask in public requires “ very serious consideration ” ?
We can see above that there ’ s very little upside to the American lockdown … so let ’ s look at the downside .
First , the economic damage from the current insane “ shelter-in-place ” regulations designed to thwart the coronavirus is already huge—lost jobs , shuttered businesses , economic downturn , stock market losses .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ cost in things like increased suicides and domestic and other violence .
The people who made the decision obviously were led by doctors , which was good , but they did not listen to economists or social scientists , which was lethal .
To partially compensate the populace for those stupendous economic losses , we ’ ve just thrown two TRILLION dollars in the general direction of the problem .
That ’ s trillion with a “ T ” .
Most people have no idea how much a trillion dollars is .
Consider @ @ @ @ @ @ @ an immortal who made so much money that you were able to spend a million dollars a day forever .
In the first week , you buy 350 ventilators at $ 20,000 each and give them to the various states .
The next day you buy 200,000 face masks at $ 5 a pop , epidemic prices .
Then you decide to take a year and buy a field hospital every day , 365 of them at a million dollars each .
That feels so good that you decide to set up full @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 1.5 million dollars per bed .
So you can buy a 250-bed hospital per year .
You spend the next two hundred years doing that , two hundred new hospitals , 50,000 new beds .
Now that ’ s only about a hundred years of spending a million bucks a day .
Suppose further that you started spending one megabuck per day , that ’ s a full million dollars each and every day including weekends , back on January First way back in the Year One .
And imagine that you spent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ right up to the present , buying medical equipment , expanding medical schools , purchasing test kits , a million dollars a day from the year 1 right up to the year 2020 .
… you still would have spent far less than a trillion dollars , only about three-quarters of a trillion .
And to spend two trillion , you ’ d have to spend a million dollars a day for 5,500 years .
Can you imagine what our medical system would be like if we spent a million dollars a day @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , we ’ ve pissed the two trillion away on repairing the damage caused by the lockdown without getting the economy started again , plus wasting it on all the pork that got loaded onto the bill .
Consummate financial idiocy that only politicians could ever think was reasonable , logical , or practical .
Mark Twain was right when he said “ Suppose that you were a Member of Congress .
And suppose further that you were an idiot .
But I repeat myself.
” So … how about we all put @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , give up our steamy midnight rendezvous ( rendezvous ? )
with pangolins , increase testing particularly of our medical personnel , start testing for antibodies , and end this stupid lockdown ?
The pluted bloatocrats in Congress are already dreaming up a new appropriations bill to waste another trillion dollars or so that we can not afford .
Me , I say , let ’ s quit while we ’ re behind and get back to work .
Here on my forest hillside where the redwood trees scratch the sky , it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ daughter , her husband , and my infant granddaughter have come to spend the lockdown in the woods … and both I and my gorgeous ex-fiancée are overjoyed that they are here .
They ’ re working from home , and we ’ re retired , so all is well chez nous .
So stay well in these parlous times , dear friends .
I see that Chloroquine has been approved in India for Covid-19 treatment .
I had malaria four times , so I know that drug up close and personal .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ for a year as malaria prophylaxis .
And I used to take three weekly doses per day for three days in a row if I felt malaria coming on , and that would stop it in its tracks .
So I ’ d take it again in a minute .
And I also saw that the advisor to the Italian Health Minister has said that only 12 % of the Italian deaths were actually deaths FROM Covid-19 , and the rest were deaths WITH Covid-19 .
So things may be looking up .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ When you comment please quote the exact words you are discussing , so we can all be clear who and what you are referring to .


wattsupwiththat--2020-04-03--NASA Outlines Lunar Surface Sustainability Concept

When NASA sends astronauts to the surface of the Moon in 2024 , it will be the first time outside of watching historical footage most people witness humans walking on another planetary body .
Building on these footsteps , future robotic and human explorers will put in place infrastructure for a long-term sustainable presence on the Moon .
NASA recently proposed a plan to go from limited , short-term Apollo-era exploration of the 1960s , to a 21st Century plan in a report to the National Space Council .
With the Artemis program , we will explore more of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ next giant leap – sending astronauts to Mars .
“ After 20 years of continuously living in low-Earth orbit , we ’ re now ready for the next great challenge of space exploration – the development of a sustained presence on and around the Moon , ” said NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine .
“ For years to come , Artemis will serve as our North Star as we continue to work toward even greater exploration of the Moon , where we will demonstrate key elements needed for the first human mission to Mars.
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ elements for a sustained presence would include an emphasis on mobility to allow astronauts to explore more of the Moon and conduct more science : • A lunar terrain vehicle or LTV , would transport crew around the landing zone • The habitable mobility platform would enable crews to take trips across the Moon lasting up to 45 days • A lunar foundation surface habitat would house as many as four crew members on shorter surface stays Astronauts working on the lunar surface also could test advanced robotics , as well as a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Lunar Surface Innovation Initiative , focusing on tech development in the areas such as of in-situ resource utilization ( ISRU ) and power systems .
Rovers will carry a variety of instruments including ISRU experiments that will generate information on the availability and extraction of usable resources ( e.g.
, oxygen and water ) .
Advancing these technologies could enable the production of fuel , water , and/or oxygen from local materials , enabling sustainable surface operations with decreasing supply needs from Earth .
Another key difference from Apollo and Artemis will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ orbit , built with commercial and international partners .
The lunar outpost will serve as a command and control module for surface expeditions and an office and home for astronauts away from Earth .
Operating autonomously when crew is not present , it also will be a platform for new science and technology demonstrations around the Moon .
Over time , NASA and its partners will enhance the lunar Gateway ’ s habitation capabilities and related life support systems .
Adding a large-volume deep space habitation element would allow astronauts to test capabilities @ @ @ @ @ @ @ missions .
While the goal of Apollo was to land the first humans on the Moon , the Artemis program will use the Moon as a testbed for crewed exploration farther into the solar system , beginning with Mars .
This is America ’ s Moon to Mars space exploration approach .
A proposed multi-month split-crew operation at the Gateway and on the lunar surface would test the agency ’ s concept for a human mission to the Red Planet .
For such a mission , NASA envisions a four-person crew traveling to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for a multi-month stay to simulate the outbound trip to Mars .
Later , two crew members would travel to the lunar surface and explore with the habitable mobility platform , while the remaining two astronauts stay aboard Gateway .
The four crew members are later reunited aboard the lunar outpost for another multi-month stay , simulating the return trip to Earth .
This mission would be the longest duration human deep space mission in history and would be the first operational test of the readiness of our deep-space systems .
The report @ @ @ @ @ @ @ surface beginning next year for scientific discovery .
The Moon is a natural laboratory to study planetary processes and evolution , and a platform from which to observe the universe .
NASA will send dozens of new science instruments and technology demonstrations to the Moon with its Commercial Lunar Payload Services initiative .
Some of these robotic precursors , including the Volatiles Investigating Polar Exploration Rover or VIPER , will study the terrain , and metal and ice resources at the lunar South Pole .
The Space Launch System rocket , Orion spacecraft @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will round out the agency ’ s deep space systems .
As part of the Artemis III mission , the first human expedition back on the Moon will last approximately seven days .
NASA plans to send Artemis Generation astronauts on increasingly longer missions about once per year thereafter .
With strong support in NASA , America and its partners will test new technologies and reduce exploration costs over time .
Supporting infrastructure including power , radiation shielding , a landing pad , as well as waste disposal and storage could be built @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
“ The U.S. is still the only nation to have successfully landed humans on the Moon and spacecraft on the surface of Mars , ” the report states .
“ As other nations increasingly move out into space , American leadership is now called for to lead the next phase of humanity ’ s quest to open up the future to endless discovery and growth .
”

From NASA
April 2, 2020
When NASA sends astronauts to the surface of the Moon in 2024, it will be the first time outside of watching historical footage most people witness humans walking on another planetary body. Building on these footsteps, future robotic and human explorers will put in place infrastructure for a long-term sustainable presence on the Moon.
NASA recently proposed a plan to go from limited, short-term Apollo-era exploration of the 1960s, to a 21st Century plan in a report to the National Space Council. With the Artemis program, we will explore more of the Moon than ever before to make the next giant leap – sending astronauts to Mars.
“After 20 years of continuously living in low-Earth orbit, we’re now ready for the next great challenge of space exploration – the development of a sustained presence on and around the Moon,” said NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine. “For years to come, Artemis will serve as our North Star as we continue to work toward even greater exploration of the Moon, where we will demonstrate key elements needed for the first human mission to Mars.”
On the surface, the core elements for a sustained presence would include an emphasis on mobility to allow astronauts to explore more of the Moon and conduct more science:
A lunar terrain vehicle or LTV, would transport crew around the landing zone
The habitable mobility platform would enable crews to take trips across the Moon lasting up to 45 days
A lunar foundation surface habitat would house as many as four crew members on shorter surface stays
Astronauts working on the lunar surface also could test advanced robotics, as well as a wide set of new technologies identified in the Lunar Surface Innovation Initiative, focusing on tech development in the areas such as of in-situ resource utilization (ISRU) and power systems. Rovers will carry a variety of instruments including ISRU experiments that will generate information on the availability and extraction of usable resources (e.g., oxygen and water). Advancing these technologies could enable the production of fuel, water, and/or oxygen from local materials, enabling sustainable surface operations with decreasing supply needs from Earth.
Another key difference from Apollo and Artemis will be use of the Gateway in lunar orbit, built with commercial and international partners. The lunar outpost will serve as a command and control module for surface expeditions and an office and home for astronauts away from Earth. Operating autonomously when crew is not present, it also will be a platform for new science and technology demonstrations around the Moon.
Over time, NASA and its partners will enhance the lunar Gateway’s habitation capabilities and related life support systems. Adding a large-volume deep space habitation element would allow astronauts to test capabilities around the Moon for long-duration deep space missions.
While the goal of Apollo was to land the first humans on the Moon, the Artemis program will use the Moon as a testbed for crewed exploration farther into the solar system, beginning with Mars. This is America’s Moon to Mars space exploration approach. A proposed multi-month split-crew operation at the Gateway and on the lunar surface would test the agency’s concept for a human mission to the Red Planet.
For such a mission, NASA envisions a four-person crew traveling to the Gateway and living aboard the outpost for a multi-month stay to simulate the outbound trip to Mars. Later, two crew members would travel to the lunar surface and explore with the habitable mobility platform, while the remaining two astronauts stay aboard Gateway. The four crew members are later reunited aboard the lunar outpost for another multi-month stay, simulating the return trip to Earth. This mission would be the longest duration human deep space mission in history and would be the first operational test of the readiness of our deep-space systems.
The report also highlights a robotic return to the surface beginning next year for scientific discovery. The Moon is a natural laboratory to study planetary processes and evolution, and a platform from which to observe the universe. NASA will send dozens of new science instruments and technology demonstrations to the Moon with its Commercial Lunar Payload Services initiative. Some of these robotic precursors, including the Volatiles Investigating Polar Exploration Rover or VIPER, will study the terrain, and metal and ice resources at the lunar South Pole.
The Space Launch System rocket, Orion spacecraft, human landing systems and modern spacesuits will round out the agency’s deep space systems. As part of the Artemis III mission, the first human expedition back on the Moon will last approximately seven days. NASA plans to send Artemis Generation astronauts on increasingly longer missions about once per year thereafter.
With strong support in NASA, America and its partners will test new technologies and reduce exploration costs over time. Supporting infrastructure including power, radiation shielding, a landing pad, as well as waste disposal and storage could be built up in the coming decades, too.
“The U.S. is still the only nation to have successfully landed humans on the Moon and spacecraft on the surface of Mars,” the report states. “As other nations increasingly move out into space, American leadership is now called for to lead the next phase of humanity’s quest to open up the future to endless discovery and growth.”
Read the full report:
NASA’s Plan for Sustained Lunar Exploration and Development
Last Updated: April 2, 2020
Editor: Cheryl Warner
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wattsupwiththat--2020-04-03--Comet ATLAS continues to brighten, now with an impressive tail, and it could put on quite a dazzling

Comet ATLAS continues to brighten, now with an impressive tail, and it could put on quite a dazzling show next month

“ According to my observations , the tail of Comet ATLAS is 1.2 degrees long , ” reports Gerald Rhemann who recorded this image on Friday , March 27th from his backyard observatory in Eichgraben , Lower Austria ( courtesy spaceweather.com ) About a month ago , Comet ATLAS was very difficult to find , but it is now as bright as an 8th magnitude star and has generated quite an impressive tail .
This brightness is hundreds of times brighter than astronomers predicted when it discovered the comet several months ago .
While it is still too dim to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is becoming an increasingly easy target for backyard telescopes .
The comet is expected to become much brighter by the time it sweeps by the sun closer than Mercury during late May , it could even rival Venus in the evening sky .
The orbit of Comet ATLAS and position as of Thursday , April 2nd ; courtesy NASA , theskylive.com Comet ATLAS was discovered by the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System ( ATLAS ) and has been given the nickname of ATLAS , but its official name is C/2019 Y4 .
ATLAS @ @ @ @ @ @ @ being developed by the University of Hawaii and is funded by NASA .
It consists of two telescopes , 100 miles apart , which automatically scan the whole sky several times every night looking for moving objects .
ATLAS will provide one day ’ s warning for a 30-kiloton “ town killer , ” a week for a 5-megaton “ city killer , ” and three weeks for a 100-megaton “ county killer ” .
So far , ATLAS has discovered 427 near-earth asteroids and as many as 37 comets included the one @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Location of the ATLAS telescopes ; courtesy The ATLAS project , NASA The comet ’ s last Earth fly-by was sometime around 4000 BC when it was witnessed by early ancient Egyptian farmers as well as Neolithic tribes in Ireland , northern Scotland and across Scandinavia , but this most recent pass was first spotted on December 28 , 2019 by ATLAS .
The comet is hundreds of times brighter than originally predicted at the time of discovery and there is increasing hope that it will become quite bright when it approaches @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the month of May .
Brightness estimates for Comet ATLAS range from magnitude +1 to -10 which is somewhere between a 1st magnitude star and the waxing crescent moon .
The image ( top ) of Comet ATLAS was taken from a backyard observatory ( 12-inch telescope ) in Austria on Friday , March 27th and shows quite an impressive tail .
In fact , an estimate of the tails length of 1.2 degrees is roughly equivalent to 3.3 million kilometers or more than twice as wide as the sun .
Comet tails @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by the sun as the comet gets closer .
By late May , Comet ATLAS will be only about 0.25 AU away from the sun and getting closer than Mercury ( one AU ( astronomical unit ) is equivalent to the distance between the Earth and the Sun ) .
Comet ATLAS is known as a hyperbolic comet and is currently in the constellation Ursa Major ( the Big Dipper ) in the northern sky orbiting Mars .
Stay tuned…predictions of comet brightness have certainly had mixed results in recent history , but @ @ @ @ @ @ @ can put on quite a dazzling show later next month .
By the end of April , Comet ATLAS will be in the constellation of Camelopardalis and best seen just after sunset , in the western twilight sky .
After May , ATLAS will continue its journey towards the center of our solar system , getting closer to the Sun which will make it harder to see .
It is expected to come back around in June when it may be visible again on its way out of sight once more .

Guest post by Paul Dorian,
“According to my observations, the tail of Comet ATLAS is 1.2 degrees long,” reports Gerald Rhemann who recorded this image on Friday, March 27th from his backyard observatory in Eichgraben, Lower Austria (courtesy spaceweather.com)
Overview
About a month ago, Comet ATLAS was very difficult to find, but it is now as bright as an 8th magnitude star and has generated quite an impressive tail. This brightness is hundreds of times brighter than astronomers predicted when it discovered the comet several months ago. While it is still too dim to see with the unaided eye, it is becoming an increasingly easy target for backyard telescopes. The comet is expected to become much brighter by the time it sweeps by the sun closer than Mercury during late May, it could even rival Venus in the evening sky.
The orbit of Comet ATLAS and position as of Thursday, April 2nd; courtesy NASA, theskylive.com
Discussion
Comet ATLAS was discovered by the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) and has been given the nickname of ATLAS, but its official name is C/2019 Y4. ATLAS is an asteroid impact early warning system being developed by the University of Hawaii and is funded by NASA. It consists of two telescopes, 100 miles apart, which automatically scan the whole sky several times every night looking for moving objects. ATLAS will provide one day’s warning for a 30-kiloton “town killer,” a week for a 5-megaton “city killer,” and three weeks for a 100-megaton “county killer”. So far, ATLAS has discovered 427 near-earth asteroids and as many as 37 comets included the one now being referred to as Comet ATLAS.
Location of the ATLAS telescopes; courtesy The ATLAS project, NASA
The comet’s last Earth fly-by was sometime around 4000 BC when it was witnessed by early ancient Egyptian farmers as well as Neolithic tribes in Ireland, northern Scotland and across Scandinavia, but this most recent pass was first spotted on December 28, 2019 by ATLAS. The comet is hundreds of times brighter than originally predicted at the time of discovery and there is increasing hope that it will become quite bright when it approaches the sun during the latter part of the month of May. Brightness estimates for Comet ATLAS range from magnitude +1 to -10 which is somewhere between a 1st magnitude star and the waxing crescent moon.
The image (top) of Comet ATLAS was taken from a backyard observatory (12-inch telescope) in Austria on Friday, March 27th and shows quite an impressive tail. In fact, an estimate of the tails length of 1.2 degrees is roughly equivalent to 3.3 million kilometers or more than twice as wide as the sun. Comet tails are dust and gas that get illuminated by the sun as the comet gets closer. By late May, Comet ATLAS will be only about 0.25 AU away from the sun and getting closer than Mercury (one AU (astronomical unit) is equivalent to the distance between the Earth and the Sun). Comet ATLAS is known as a hyperbolic comet and is currently in the constellation Ursa Major (the Big Dipper) in the northern sky orbiting Mars.
Stay tuned…predictions of comet brightness have certainly had mixed results in recent history, but there is increasing hope that this one can put on quite a dazzling show later next month. By the end of April, Comet ATLAS will be in the constellation of Camelopardalis and best seen just after sunset, in the western twilight sky. After May, ATLAS will continue its journey towards the center of our solar system, getting closer to the Sun which will make it harder to see. It is expected to come back around in June when it may be visible again on its way out of sight once more.
Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Perspecta, Inc.
perspectaweather.com
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