wattsupwiththat--2020-11-19--Claim: Study confirms contribution of bioenergy to climate change mitigation

Across-border team of researchers refute arguments that carbon debt , opportunity cost and indirect land-use change prevent greenhouse gas mitigation by biofuels .
That biofuels can contribute to a cleaner global energy mix is widely accepted , but the net benefits of bioenergy in terms of mitigating greenhouse gases ( GHG ) are moot .
Some argue , for example , that biofuels are not sustainable because the conversion of non-agricultural land to grow energy crops could lead to a significant initial decrease in carbon storage , creating what is known as a “ biofuel carbon debt ” .
A @ @ @ @ @ @ @ published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences ( PNAS ) could help refute this argument .
The study showed that the GHG mitigation potential of switchgrass cultivation for cellulosic ethanol production in the US was comparable on a per-hectare basis to that of reforestation and several times greater than that of grassland restoration .
Switchgrass ( Panicum virgatum ) is a widely grown North American native grass proposed as biomass for the biobased economy .
More advanced technology and integration of carbon capture and storage ( CCS ) could further increase @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by a factor of six , according to the study , which was supported by São Paulo Research Foundation – FAPESP via a project led by John J. Sheehan .
Sheehan is affiliated with the University of Minnesota in the US and is currently a visiting fellow at the University of Campinas ’ s School of Agricultural Engineering ( FEAGRI-UNICAMP ) in the state of São Paulo , Brazil , under the aegis of the ( São Paulo Excellence Chair ( SPEC ) .
Co-lead author of the study , Lee R. Lynd @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Hanover , New Hampshire ( USA ) , began a project in February at UNICAMP ’ s Center for Molecular Biology and Genetic Engineering ( CBMEG ) , with funding from FAPESP under the SPEC program .
“ The study highlights in detail the factors and strategies that are important to the implementation of biofuel production in a way that helps stabilize the climate , ” Lynd told .
According to the authors , critics of bioenergy question whether feedstock crops can be sustainably sourced without causing self-defeating reductions in ecosystem carbon storage @ @ @ @ @ @ @ resulting from the conversion of non-agricultural land into energy crop plantations , the use of existing productive agricultural land with low carbon stocks can also be counterproductive if food production is displaced and GHG emissions increase elsewhere .
This effect , known as indirect land-use change , can be minimized or avoided by growing biofuel feedstocks on low-yield or abandoned cropland , or land spared from continued agricultural use through future agricultural intensification or changes in diet .
Reforestation offers an alternative use of such land for GHG mitigation .
However , it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ production in these areas should consider their “ opportunity cost ” , i.e .
the carbon sequestration foregone when land is used for feedstock production instead of reforestation .
“ The main studies published to date suggest zero net land-use change , but indirect land-use change continues to be invoked as a key criticism of biofuels , ” Lynd said .
These arguments were initially directed at first-generation biofuels – obtained from sugar , starch or vegetable oil in food crops grown on farmland – but questions focusing on carbon debt , indirect @ @ @ @ @ @ @ since been raised regarding the production of cellulosic biomass for use in advanced biofuel production or electricity generation .
Based on these and other arguments , recent studies suggest that using land to produce bioenergy feedstocks has a less-than-ideal impact in terms of mitigating the climate crisis , and recommend research and policy be refocused toward land-based biological carbon management .
However , those studies are often based on secondary estimates of bioenergy system performance and mitigation opportunity costs .
Furthermore , they generally exclude consideration of CCS or future technology improvements , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the critiques we discuss in the study has some legitimacy in terms of pointing to factors that can cancel out the beneficial impact of biofuels on the climate , but they shouldn ’ t be taken as proof that biofuels can ’ t or don ’ t have any beneficial impact at all , ” Lynd said .
To refute the arguments presented by critics of biofuel sustainability , the researchers used ecosystem simulation combined with models of cellulosic biofuel production and CCS , estimating the potential of biofuel from energy grass to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ compared with other land-based mitigation schemes , such as reforestation and grassland restoration .
They calibrated the ecosystem model to perform temporally explicit simulations of atmosphere-biosphere carbon exchange under different land-use choices at three case study sites in the US .
The analysis showed that where farmers transitioned from switchgrass to cellulosic ethanol the per-hectare mitigation potential was comparable to that of reforestation and several times greater than that of grassland restoration .
It also showed that the mitigation potential of plausible future improvements in energy crop yields and biorefining technology , together @ @ @ @ @ @ @ greater than that of reforestation and 15 times greater than that of grassland restoration .
“ In addition , we found that natural land cover and the technological maturity of the supply chain make a significant difference when it comes to estimating the relative benefits of GHG mitigation by biofuels and restoration of natural vegetation , ” Lynd said .
Switchgrass cultivation can be particularly useful in parts of the US where the natural plant cover consists of grass rather than trees , according to the study .
In future , the researchers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to discuss these issues for the US on a nationwide scale .
“ An important direction in which the study points is an analysis of a broader range of sites , energy crops , and conversion processes , including those designed to include biofuel production in a manner consistent with the circular economy , ” Lynd said .
The methodology could also be used to analyze the production of biofuel from sugarcane in Brazil , he added .
The São Paulo Research Foundation ( FAPESP ) is a public institution with the mission @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of knowledge by awarding scholarships , fellowships and grants to investigators linked with higher education and research institutions in the State of São Paulo , Brazil .
FAPESP is aware that the very best research can only be done by working with the best researchers internationally .
Therefore , it has established partnerships with funding agencies , higher education , private companies , and research organizations in other countries known for the quality of their research and has been encouraging scientists funded by its grants to further develop their international collaboration .
You @ @ @ @ @ @ @ : //www.fapesp.br/en and visit FAPESP news agency at http : //www.agencia.fapesp.br/en to keep updated with the latest scientific breakthroughs FAPESP helps achieve through its many programs , awards and research centers .
You may also subscribe to FAPESP news agency at http : //agencia.fapesp.br/subscribe .

Across-border team of researchers refute arguments that carbon debt, opportunity cost and indirect land-use change prevent greenhouse gas mitigation by biofuels.
FUNDAÇÃO DE AMPARO À PESQUISA DO ESTADO DE SÃO PAULO
Research News
IMAGE: A CROSS-BORDER TEAM OF RESEARCHERS REFUTE ARGUMENTS THAT CARBON DEBT, OPPORTUNITY COST AND INDIRECT LAND-USE CHANGE PREVENT GREENHOUSE GAS MITIGATION BY BIOFUELS. view more CREDIT: OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LAB
That biofuels can contribute to a cleaner global energy mix is widely accepted, but the net benefits of bioenergy in terms of mitigating greenhouse gases (GHG) are moot. Some argue, for example, that biofuels are not sustainable because the conversion of non-agricultural land to grow energy crops could lead to a significant initial decrease in carbon storage, creating what is known as a “biofuel carbon debt”.
A study by a cross-border group of researchers published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS) could help refute this argument.
The study showed that the GHG mitigation potential of switchgrass cultivation for cellulosic ethanol production in the US was comparable on a per-hectare basis to that of reforestation and several times greater than that of grassland restoration. Switchgrass (Panicum virgatum) is a widely grown North American native grass proposed as biomass for the biobased economy.
More advanced technology and integration of carbon capture and storage (CCS) could further increase the per-hectare mitigation potential of bioenergy systems by a factor of six, according to the study, which was supported by São Paulo Research Foundation – FAPESP via a project led by John J. Sheehan.
Sheehan is affiliated with the University of Minnesota in the US and is currently a visiting fellow at the University of Campinas’s School of Agricultural Engineering (FEAGRI-UNICAMP) in the state of São Paulo, Brazil, under the aegis of the (São Paulo Excellence Chair (SPEC).
Co-lead author of the study, Lee R. Lynd, a professor at Dartmouth College in Hanover, New Hampshire (USA), began a project in February at UNICAMP’s Center for Molecular Biology and Genetic Engineering (CBMEG), with funding from FAPESP under the SPEC program.
“The study highlights in detail the factors and strategies that are important to the implementation of biofuel production in a way that helps stabilize the climate,” Lynd told.
Questions answered
According to the authors, critics of bioenergy question whether feedstock crops can be sustainably sourced without causing self-defeating reductions in ecosystem carbon storage.
Besides the “carbon debt” resulting from the conversion of non-agricultural land into energy crop plantations, the use of existing productive agricultural land with low carbon stocks can also be counterproductive if food production is displaced and GHG emissions increase elsewhere.
This effect, known as indirect land-use change, can be minimized or avoided by growing biofuel feedstocks on low-yield or abandoned cropland, or land spared from continued agricultural use through future agricultural intensification or changes in diet.
Reforestation offers an alternative use of such land for GHG mitigation. However, it is often claimed that assessment of bioenergy production in these areas should consider their “opportunity cost”, i.e. the carbon sequestration foregone when land is used for feedstock production instead of reforestation.
“The main studies published to date suggest zero net land-use change, but indirect land-use change continues to be invoked as a key criticism of biofuels,” Lynd said.
These arguments were initially directed at first-generation biofuels – obtained from sugar, starch or vegetable oil in food crops grown on farmland – but questions focusing on carbon debt, indirect land-use change, and opportunity cost have since been raised regarding the production of cellulosic biomass for use in advanced biofuel production or electricity generation.
Based on these and other arguments, recent studies suggest that using land to produce bioenergy feedstocks has a less-than-ideal impact in terms of mitigating the climate crisis, and recommend research and policy be refocused toward land-based biological carbon management.
However, those studies are often based on secondary estimates of bioenergy system performance and mitigation opportunity costs. Furthermore, they generally exclude consideration of CCS or future technology improvements, the authors note.
“Each of the critiques we discuss in the study has some legitimacy in terms of pointing to factors that can cancel out the beneficial impact of biofuels on the climate, but they shouldn’t be taken as proof that biofuels can’t or don’t have any beneficial impact at all,” Lynd said.
To refute the arguments presented by critics of biofuel sustainability, the researchers used ecosystem simulation combined with models of cellulosic biofuel production and CCS, estimating the potential of biofuel from energy grass to replace fossil fuels and sequester carbon directly compared with other land-based mitigation schemes, such as reforestation and grassland restoration.
They calibrated the ecosystem model to perform temporally explicit simulations of atmosphere-biosphere carbon exchange under different land-use choices at three case study sites in the US.
The analysis showed that where farmers transitioned from switchgrass to cellulosic ethanol the per-hectare mitigation potential was comparable to that of reforestation and several times greater than that of grassland restoration.
It also showed that the mitigation potential of plausible future improvements in energy crop yields and biorefining technology, together with CCS, could be four times greater than that of reforestation and 15 times greater than that of grassland restoration.
“In addition, we found that natural land cover and the technological maturity of the supply chain make a significant difference when it comes to estimating the relative benefits of GHG mitigation by biofuels and restoration of natural vegetation,” Lynd said.
Switchgrass cultivation can be particularly useful in parts of the US where the natural plant cover consists of grass rather than trees, according to the study.
In future, the researchers plan to use the same modeling approach to discuss these issues for the US on a nationwide scale. “An important direction in which the study points is an analysis of a broader range of sites, energy crops, and conversion processes, including those designed to include biofuel production in a manner consistent with the circular economy,” Lynd said.
The methodology could also be used to analyze the production of biofuel from sugarcane in Brazil, he added.
###
About São Paulo Research Foundation (FAPESP)
The São Paulo Research Foundation (FAPESP) is a public institution with the mission of supporting scientific research in all fields of knowledge by awarding scholarships, fellowships and grants to investigators linked with higher education and research institutions in the State of São Paulo, Brazil. FAPESP is aware that the very best research can only be done by working with the best researchers internationally. Therefore, it has established partnerships with funding agencies, higher education, private companies, and research organizations in other countries known for the quality of their research and has been encouraging scientists funded by its grants to further develop their international collaboration. You can learn more about FAPESP at http://www.fapesp.br/en and visit FAPESP news agency at http://www.agencia.fapesp.br/en to keep updated with the latest scientific breakthroughs FAPESP helps achieve through its many programs, awards and research centers. You may also subscribe to FAPESP news agency at http://agencia.fapesp.br/subscribe.
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wattsupwiththat--2020-11-19--California Governor Apologises for Breaching his Own Covid-19 Lockdown Rules

h/t Breitbart ; More evidence strict Covid-19 lockdown rules do not apply to Democrats .
FOX 11 obtains exclusive photos of Gov .
Newsom at French restaurant allegedly not following COVID-19 protocols LOS ANGELES – FOX 11 obtained exclusive photos on Tuesday night of Governor Gavin Newsom allegedly eating at the French Laundry restaurant in Yountville , California at a dinner party he attended on November 6 not following his own COVID-19 protocols he set forth for the state .
EXCLUSIVE : We 've obtained photos of Governor Gavin Newsom at the Napa dinner party he 's in hot water @ @ @ @ @ @ @ just how outdoors the dinner was .
A witness who took photos tells us his group was so loud , the sliding doors had to be closed .
10pm on @ FOXLA pic.twitter.com/gtOVEwa864 — Bill Melugin ( @ BillFOXLA ) November 18 , 2020 This is the latest in a series of recent embarrassing cases of high profile Democrats apparently acting in a way which contradicts their public position on the need for strict Covid-19 lockdowns .
Governor Newsom apparently suggested that the dinner event at which he violated his own Covid-19 lockdown @ @ @ @ @ @ @ risk of Covid-19 transmission is substantially reduced in the open air .
But the photos obtained by Fox seem to suggest the dinner guests were surrounded by four walls and a ceiling , at least for part of the evening .

Guest essay by Eric Worrall
h/t Breitbart; More evidence strict Covid-19 lockdown rules do not apply to Democrats.
FOX 11 obtains exclusive photos of Gov. Newsom at French restaurant allegedly not following COVID-19 protocols LOS ANGELES – FOX 11 obtained exclusive photos on Tuesday night of Governor Gavin Newsom allegedly eating at the French Laundry restaurant in Yountville, California at a dinner party he attended on November 6 not following his own COVID-19 protocols he set forth for the state. EXCLUSIVE: We've obtained photos of Governor Gavin Newsom at the Napa dinner party he's in hot water over. The photos call into question just how outdoors the dinner was. A witness who took photos tells us his group was so loud, the sliding doors had to be closed. 10pm on @FOXLA pic.twitter.com/gtOVEwa864 — Bill Melugin (@BillFOXLA) November 18, 2020 … Read more: https://www.foxla.com/news/fox-11-obtains-exclusive-photos-of-gov-newsom-at-french-restaurant-allegedly-not-following-covid-19-protocols
This is the latest in a series of recent embarrassing cases of high profile Democrats apparently acting in a way which contradicts their public position on the need for strict Covid-19 lockdowns.
Governor Newsom apparently suggested that the dinner event at which he violated his own Covid-19 lockdown rules was an outdoor event. The risk of Covid-19 transmission is substantially reduced in the open air.
But the photos obtained by Fox seem to suggest the dinner guests were surrounded by four walls and a ceiling, at least for part of the evening.
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wattsupwiththat--2020-11-20--Climate change and ‘atmospheric thirst’ to increase fire danger and drought in NV and CA

New study shows impacts of increased levels of evaporative demand as climate grows warmer and drier Reno , Nev. ( Nov. 19 , 2020 ) – Climate change and a “ thirsty atmosphere ” will bring more extreme wildfire danger and multi-year droughts to Nevada and California by the end of this century , according to new research from the Desert Research Institute ( DRI ) , the Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University of California , San Diego , and the University of California , Merced .
In a new study published in Earth ’ s Future , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ demand – a measure of how dry the air is – in California and Nevada through the end of the 21st century .
They then examined how changes in evaporative demand would impact the frequency of extreme fire danger and three-year droughts , based on metrics from the Evaporative Demand Drought Index ( EDDI ) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index ( SPEI ) .
According to their results , climate change projections show consistent future increases in atmospheric evaporative demand ( or the “ atmospheric thirst ” ) over California and Nevada @ @ @ @ @ @ @ warmer temperatures , and would likely lead to significant on-the-ground environmental impacts .
“ Higher evaporative demand during summer and autumn–peak fire season in the region–means faster drying of soil moisture and vegetation , and available fuels becoming more flammable , leading to fires that can burn faster and hotter , ” explained lead author Dan McEvoy , Ph.D. , Assistant Research Professor of Climatology at DRI .
“ Increased evaporative demand with warming enables fuels to be drier for longer periods , ” added coauthor John Abatzoglou , Ph.D. , Associate Professor @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
“ This is a recipe for more active fire seasons.
” The research team found that days with extreme fire danger in summer and autumn are expected to increase four to 10 times by the end of the century .
Their results also showed that multi-year droughts , similar to that experienced in California and Nevada during 2012-2016 , were projected to increase three to 15 times by the end of the century .
“ One major takeaway was that we can expect to see a lot more days in the summer @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to increased temperature and evaporative demand , ” McEvoy said .
“ Another takeaway was that even in locations where precipitation may not change that much in future , droughts are going to become more severe due to higher evaporative demand.
” Study authors say that the cumulative effects of increases in evaporative demand will stress native ecosystems , increase fire danger , negatively impact agriculture where water demands can not be met , and exacerbate impacts to society during periods of prolonged dryness .
Several members of the research team are part @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ) , and will use these study results to provide resource managers with a view of possible future scenarios .
“ These results provide information to support science-based , long-term planning for fire management agencies , forest management agencies , and water resource managers , ” said coauthor Julie Kalansky , Ph.D. , Program Manager for CNAP .
“ We plan to work with partners to help integrate the findings from this paper to support building climate resilience.
” This study was funded by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ( NOAA ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and the NOAA National Integrated Drought Information System ( NIDIS ) California-Nevada Drought Early Warning System .
The full text of the paper , “ Projected Changes in Reference Evapotranspiration in California and Nevada : Implications for Drought and Wildland Fire Danger , ” is available from Earth ’ s Future : https : //agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2020EF001736 The Desert Research Institute ( DRI ) is a recognized world leader in basic and applied interdisciplinary research .
Committed to scientific excellence and integrity , DRI faculty , students , and staff have developed scientific knowledge and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ globe .
Since 1959 , DRI ’ s research has advanced scientific knowledge , supported Nevada ’ s diversifying economy , provided science-based educational opportunities , and informed policy makers , business leaders , and community members .
With campuses in Reno and Las Vegas , DRI serves as the non-profit research arm of the Nevada System of Higher Education .
For more information , please visit http : //www.dri.edu .

New study shows impacts of increased levels of evaporative demand as climate grows warmer and drier
DESERT RESEARCH INSTITUTE
Research News
IMAGE: CLIMATE CHANGE AND A “THIRSTY ATMOSPHERE ” WILL BRING MORE EXTREME WILDFIRE DANGER AND MULTI-YEAR DROUGHTS TO NEVADA AND CALIFORNIA BY THE END OF THIS CENTURY, ACCORDING TO NEW RESEARCH. view more CREDIT: MEGHAN COLLINS/DRI
Reno, Nev. (Nov. 19, 2020) – Climate change and a “thirsty atmosphere” will bring more extreme wildfire danger and multi-year droughts to Nevada and California by the end of this century, according to new research from the Desert Research Institute (DRI), the Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University of California, San Diego, and the University of California, Merced.
In a new study published in Earth’s Future, scientists looked at future projections of evaporative demand – a measure of how dry the air is – in California and Nevada through the end of the 21st century. They then examined how changes in evaporative demand would impact the frequency of extreme fire danger and three-year droughts, based on metrics from the Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI).
According to their results, climate change projections show consistent future increases in atmospheric evaporative demand (or the “atmospheric thirst”) over California and Nevada. These changes were largely driven by warmer temperatures, and would likely lead to significant on-the-ground environmental impacts.
“Higher evaporative demand during summer and autumn–peak fire season in the region–means faster drying of soil moisture and vegetation, and available fuels becoming more flammable, leading to fires that can burn faster and hotter,” explained lead author Dan McEvoy, Ph.D., Assistant Research Professor of Climatology at DRI.
“Increased evaporative demand with warming enables fuels to be drier for longer periods,” added coauthor John Abatzoglou, Ph.D., Associate Professor with the University of California, Merced. “This is a recipe for more active fire seasons.”
The research team found that days with extreme fire danger in summer and autumn are expected to increase four to 10 times by the end of the century. Their results also showed that multi-year droughts, similar to that experienced in California and Nevada during 2012-2016, were projected to increase three to 15 times by the end of the century.
“One major takeaway was that we can expect to see a lot more days in the summer and autumn with extreme fire danger related to increased temperature and evaporative demand,” McEvoy said. “Another takeaway was that even in locations where precipitation may not change that much in future, droughts are going to become more severe due to higher evaporative demand.”
Study authors say that the cumulative effects of increases in evaporative demand will stress native ecosystems, increase fire danger, negatively impact agriculture where water demands cannot be met, and exacerbate impacts to society during periods of prolonged dryness. Several members of the research team are part of the California-Nevada Applications Program (CNAP), and will use these study results to provide resource managers with a view of possible future scenarios.
“These results provide information to support science-based, long-term planning for fire management agencies, forest management agencies, and water resource managers,” said coauthor Julie Kalansky, Ph.D., Program Manager for CNAP. “We plan to work with partners to help integrate the findings from this paper to support building climate resilience.”
###
Additional Information:
This study was funded by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) California-Nevada Climate Applications Program (CNAP) and the NOAA National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) California-Nevada Drought Early Warning System.
The full text of the paper, “Projected Changes in Reference Evapotranspiration in California and Nevada: Implications for Drought and Wildland Fire Danger,” is available from Earth’s Future: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2020EF001736
The Desert Research Institute (DRI) is a recognized world leader in basic and applied interdisciplinary research. Committed to scientific excellence and integrity, DRI faculty, students, and staff have developed scientific knowledge and innovative technologies in research projects around the globe. Since 1959, DRI’s research has advanced scientific knowledge, supported Nevada’s diversifying economy, provided science-based educational opportunities, and informed policy makers, business leaders, and community members. With campuses in Reno and Las Vegas, DRI serves as the non-profit research arm of the Nevada System of Higher Education. For more information, please visit http://www.dri.edu.
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wattsupwiththat--2020-11-20--BBC: Send Fewer Emails to Reduce Global Warming

According to the BBC , you should only send emails if you think the other person really cares , though some commenters point out cutting back on streaming services and online gaming might have a bigger impact .
Climate change : Can sending fewer emails really save the planet ?
Are you the type of person who always says thank you ?
Well , if it ’ s by email , you should stop , according to UK officials looking at ways to save the environment .
The Financial Times reports that we may all soon be encouraged to send @ @ @ @ @ @ @ out “ useless ” one-line messages – such as “ thanks ” .
Doing so “ would save a lot of carbon ” , one official involved in next year ’ s COP26 climate summit in Glasgow said .
But would it really make a huge difference ?
Mike Berners-Lee , a respected professor on the topic whose research was used in the Ovo Energy work , told the Financial Times it was based on “ back-of-the-envelope ” maths from 2010 – and while useful to start conversations , there were bigger questions @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lot of the system will still have impact , whether or not the email is sent , ” Prof Preist explains .
Rather than worrying about relatively low-impact emails , some researchers suggest we should turn our attention to services such as game and video-streaming and cloud storage which have a much larger effect .
Frankly I ’ m shocked that anyone who professes concern about climate change would go anywhere near something packed with as much carbon sin as a computer or mobile device .
When you touch a computer or mobile @ @ @ @ @ @ @ something which is only a few small chemical steps away from the crude oil from which much of it was made .
Heat a modern mobile device or computer in a fire and it will rapidly blacken and reveal its true nature , by melting into a discoloured tar .
The alumina components were produced using insane amounts of electricity and heat .
The copper was refined using toxic chemical smelting processes .
And that super tough glass screen was produced by melting acid washed sand mixed with exotic chemicals in a high @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to be taken seriously should self isolate , grow their own vegetables , and avoid all forms of electronic communication , streaming services and electronic gaming , if they want to convince the rest of us of their sincerity .

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wattsupwiththat--2020-11-20--New footage reveals Netflix faked walrus climate deaths

Netflix faked ‘ Our Planet ’ walrus deaths in order to blame them on climate change – polar bears actually were the cause of walrus falling to their deaths from a Siberian cliff , independent video evidence from Russia shows .
A new video published by the Global Warming Policy Foundation on this new evidence .
h/t Mark .
London , 19 November : In a GWPF video released today , Dr. Susan Crockford , a Canadian wildlife expert , provides new evidence that the 2019 Netflix documentary film series , ‘ Our Planet ’ , withheld facts behind the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of climate change .
If there was ever any doubt that polar bears , not climate change , were the cause of walrus falling to their deaths from a rocky cliff in Siberia a few years ago , new evidence presented here seals the deal : a Russian photographer has released independent video of the event that clearly shows polar bears driving walrus over the cliff to their deaths .
In 2019 , a sequence in the Netflix documentary ‘ Our Planet ’ showed a highly disturbing piece of footage of several walrus @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from a high cliff to their deaths .
It transpired this event happened in late September 2017 at a well-known walrus haulout at Cape Schmidt on the Chukchi Sea .
Narrator Sir David Attenborough blamed the tragedy on climate change , insisting that lack of summer sea ice due to climate change was to blame for the walrus falling to their deaths without provocation .
A few months later , however , using some of the same walrus footage , Attenborough ’ s BBC series called ‘ Seven Worlds , One Planet ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ walrus off the very same cliff .
It was damning evidence that the ‘ Our Planet ’ account of walrus deaths had been a false narrative constructed to elicit an emotional response from the public .
New independent video footage of the same event shot by Russian photographer Yevgeny Basov corroborates the BBC evidence that polar bears drove the walrus over the cliff .
Basov is a friend of Netflix ‘ science advisor ’ Anatoly Kochnev and was apparently invited to observe the commercial filming .
Like the original Netflix footage , this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ heart .
It captures a raw but natural encounter between predator and prey .
Walrus hauling out on land during the summer are natural events that happen even when sea ice is available .
Polar bears are known to stalk such herds until they stampede , leaving the weak or unwary crushed in their wake .
Cliffs are not essential to this polar bear hunting strategy but are especially efficient .
This brutal film footage of nature in action is not evidence of climate change or species on the brink of extinction .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ the walrus narrative promoted by Sir David Attenborough in the Netflix documentary ‘ Our Planet ’ is a manipulative sham with no resemblance to reality .

Reposted from Polar Bear Science
Posted on November 19, 2020 |
Netflix faked ‘Our Planet’ walrus deaths in order to blame them on climate change – polar bears actually were the cause of walrus falling to their deaths from a Siberian cliff, independent video evidence from Russia shows.
A new video published by the Global Warming Policy Forum on this new evidence. h/t Mark.
Press release 16 November 2020 from the Global Warming Policy Forum:
London, 19 November: In a GWPF video released today, Dr. Susan Crockford, a Canadian wildlife expert, provides new evidence that the 2019 Netflix documentary film series, ‘Our Planet’, withheld facts behind the controversial walrus story it promoted as evidence of climate change. If there was ever any doubt that polar bears, not climate change, were the cause of walrus falling to their deaths from a rocky cliff in Siberia a few years ago, new evidence presented here seals the deal: a Russian photographer has released independent video of the event that clearly shows polar bears driving walrus over the cliff to their deaths. In 2019, a sequence in the Netflix documentary ‘Our Planet’ showed a highly disturbing piece of footage of several walrus bouncing off sharp rocks as they fell from a high cliff to their deaths. It transpired this event happened in late September 2017 at a well-known walrus haulout at Cape Schmidt on the Chukchi Sea. Narrator Sir David Attenborough blamed the tragedy on climate change, insisting that lack of summer sea ice due to climate change was to blame for the walrus falling to their deaths without provocation. A few months later, however, using some of the same walrus footage, Attenborough’s BBC series called ‘Seven Worlds, One Planet’ featured a number of polar bears driving walrus off the very same cliff. It was damning evidence that the ‘Our Planet’ account of walrus deaths had been a false narrative constructed to elicit an emotional response from the public. New independent video footage of the same event shot by Russian photographer Yevgeny Basov corroborates the BBC evidence that polar bears drove the walrus over the cliff. Basov is a friend of Netflix ‘science advisor’ Anatoly Kochnev and was apparently invited to observe the commercial filming. Like the original Netflix footage, this scene is not for the faint of heart. It captures a raw but natural encounter between predator and prey. Walrus hauling out on land during the summer are natural events that happen even when sea ice is available. Polar bears are known to stalk such herds until they stampede, leaving the weak or unwary crushed in their wake. Cliffs are not essential to this polar bear hunting strategy but are especially efficient. This brutal film footage of nature in action is not evidence of climate change or species on the brink of extinction. It does prove, however, that the walrus narrative promoted by Sir David Attenborough in the Netflix documentary ‘Our Planet’ is a manipulative sham with no resemblance to reality.
My video below published by the Global Warming Policy Forum.
Although the location is not specified in the original Russian video, by Russian photographer Yevgeny Basov, entitled simply ‘Walruses and polar bears of Chukotka’ (posted 17 May 2020, see below), it is clear that the location shown early in the film footage (up to the 4:00 mark) is of the cliff and walrus haulout at Cape Schmidt, which the author described in a photo essay published in November 2017 here.
See also:
The truth about Attenborough’s falling walruses (below):
Falling Walrus: Attenborough Tacitly Admits Netflix Deception (below)
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wattsupwiththat--2020-11-19--Climate Thinktank Slams Australia for Global Warming Inaction

Surging fossil fuel use and exports , no large scale carbon pricing scheme , no carbon target – almost as if the Australian government and the people who voted them into office think the climate crisis is a total joke .
Report highlights Australia ’ s performance on climate change compared to others in the G20 The weaknesses in Australia ’ s performance on a key issue compared to other G20 countries has been highlighted in a new report .
Australia ’ s record on climate change compared to other G20 countries has come under scrutiny in a new report @ @ @ @ @ @ @ an annual collaboration between 14 think tanks and non-governmental organisations , is aimed at encouraging ambitious climate action .
The report has highlighted Australia ’ s poor performance as having one of the highest rates of subsidies for fossil fuels , for being one of only two countries not implementing a carbon pricing scheme and being one of the worst performers when it comes to emissions reduction in transport , energy efficient buildings and deforestation .
“ Evidence suggests that COVID-19 recovery responses , thus far , have been disproportionately directed towards emissions-intensive @ @ @ @ @ @ @ notes .
“ This could contribute to emissions rebounding at a faster rate .
”

Guest essay by Eric Worrall
Surging fossil fuel use and exports, no large scale carbon pricing scheme, no carbon target – almost as if the Australian government and the people who voted them into office think the climate crisis is a total joke.
Report highlights Australia’s performance on climate change compared to others in the G20
The weaknesses in Australia’s performance on a key issue compared to other G20 countries has been highlighted in a new report.
Charis Chang
November 18, 2020
Australia’s record on climate change compared to other G20 countries has come under scrutiny in a new report.
The 2020 Climate Transparency Report, an annual collaboration between 14 think tanks and non-governmental organisations, is aimed at encouraging ambitious climate action.
The report has highlighted Australia’s poor performance as having one of the highest rates of subsidies for fossil fuels, for being one of only two countries not implementing a carbon pricing scheme and being one of the worst performers when it comes to emissions reduction in transport, energy efficient buildings and deforestation.
…
“Evidence suggests that COVID-19 recovery responses, thus far, have been disproportionately directed towards emissions-intensive and environmentally-damaging sectors,” the report notes. “This could contribute to emissions rebounding at a faster rate.”
…


wattsupwiththat--2020-11-21--“We do not deny climate change”: Rupert Murdoch Responds to Accusations

Rupert Murdoch has responded to accusations from his son James and others that his news organisation promotes climate denial .
‘ We do not deny climate change ’ : Rupert Murdoch addresses son ’ s exit from board Rupert Murdoch has made his first public comments about the abrupt resignation of his son James Murdoch from News Corp ’ s board , rejecting assertions the company denies climate change or that he did not consider his son ’ s point of view .
At the company ’ s annual general meeting on Thursday morning ( AEDT ) , Mr Murdoch @ @ @ @ @ @ @ some of James Murdoch ’ s views on climate change and on US President Donald Trump .
James Murdoch has long been seen to have more progressive political views than his family and was critical of Trump in a New York Times interview in October .
“ Our board has many discussions , but James … claims that our papers have covered the bushfires in Australia without discussing climate change .
We do not deny climate change , we are not deniers , ” Mr Murdoch said .
Columns by Melbourne writer Andrew @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Australian Financial Review columnist ) Rowan Dean in the tabloids and former ASX chairman Maurice Newman in The Australian have described climate change as a “ cult ” and “ a socialist plot ” .
In a broadcast on News Corp-owned Sky News , Bolt criticised the “ constant stream of propaganda ” on the ABC about the climate crisis .
Tolerating diversity of opinion , in the form of providing wildly popular Murdoch Media personalities like Andrew Bolt a platform , does not mean Murdoch agrees with everything those personalities say .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ news managers giving their best journalists editorial freedom are no longer encouraged , at least when it comes to climate change .
Greens can be unforgiving of minor deviations from their dogma , even from people who helped found their movement .
Retired NASA scientist James Hansen , whose 1988 testimony pretty much kick started the climate movement , was accused of being a “ denier ” in 2015 , because he does not think renewables alone will be enough to curb global CO2 emissions .
It is difficult to imagine someone being @ @ @ @ @ @ @ thinks the oceans will literally begin to boil if we don ’ t rapidly curb CO2 emissions .
But Hansen still faced accusations of being a “ denier ” , because he thinks nuclear power should be an important part of the solution to climate change .

Guest essay by Eric Worrall
Rupert Murdoch has responded to accusations from his son James and others that his news organisation promotes climate denial.
‘We do not deny climate change’: Rupert Murdoch addresses son’s exit from board By Zoe Samios
November 19, 2020 — 12.08pm Rupert Murdoch has made his first public comments about the abrupt resignation of his son James Murdoch from News Corp’s board, rejecting assertions the company denies climate change or that he did not consider his son’s point of view. … At the company’s annual general meeting on Thursday morning (AEDT), Mr Murdoch was asked why he did not accommodate some of James Murdoch’s views on climate change and on US President Donald Trump. James Murdoch has long been seen to have more progressive political views than his family and was critical of Trump in a New York Times interview in October. “Our board has many discussions, but James … claims that our papers have covered the bushfires in Australia without discussing climate change. We do not deny climate change, we are not deniers,” Mr Murdoch said. … Columns by Melbourne writer Andrew Bolt and Sky commentator (and The Australian Financial Review columnist) Rowan Dean in the tabloids and former ASX chairman Maurice Newman in The Australian have described climate change as a “cult” and “a socialist plot”. In a broadcast on News Corp-owned Sky News, Bolt criticised the “constant stream of propaganda” on the ABC about the climate crisis. … Read more: https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/we-are-not-climate-change-deniers-rupert-murdoch-addresses-son-s-exit-from-board-20201119-p56fy3.html
Tolerating diversity of opinion, in the form of providing wildly popular Murdoch Media personalities like Andrew Bolt a platform, does not mean Murdoch agrees with everything those personalities say.
But I guess old fashioned ideas like news managers giving their best journalists editorial freedom are no longer encouraged, at least when it comes to climate change.
Greens can be unforgiving of minor deviations from their dogma, even from people who helped found their movement.
Retired NASA scientist James Hansen, whose 1988 testimony pretty much kick started the climate movement, was accused of being a “denier” in 2015, because he does not think renewables alone will be enough to curb global CO2 emissions.
It is difficult to imagine someone being more alarmist than James Hansen; Hansen thinks the oceans will literally begin to boil if we don’t rapidly curb CO2 emissions. But Hansen still faced accusations of being a “denier”, because he thinks nuclear power should be an important part of the solution to climate change.
Update (EW): Tidied the text slightly.
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wattsupwiththat--2020-11-20--EIA: “About 25% of U.S. power plants can start up within an hour”

In a world where mostly unreliable power plant ( solar & wind ) construction is on the rise , backup power generation becomes more important every day .
Unreliable generation capacity in the US has doubled since 2013 and now comprises 12 % of our generating capacity .
Backup power needs to be able to spin up quickly , ideally within minutes , certainly in less than 1 hour .
NOVEMBER 19 , 2020 About 25 % of U.S. power plants can start up within an hour About 25 % of U.S. power plants can start up—going from being shut @ @ @ @ @ @ @ based on data collected in EIA ’ s annual survey of electric generators .
Some power plants , especially those powered by coal and nuclear fuel , require more than half a day to reach full operations .
The time it takes a power plant to reach full operations can affect the reliability and operations of the electric grid .
Generator startup time differs across electricity-generating technologies because of the differences in the complexity of electricity generating processes , especially when starting again after all processes have been stopped ( cold shut down @ @ @ @ @ @ @ time is different from a generator ’ s ramp rate , which reflects how quickly that generator can modify its power output once it ’ s operating .
Most hydroelectric turbines , which use flowing water to spin a turbine , can go from cold start to full operations in less than 10 minutes .
Combustion turbines , which use a combusted fuel-air mixture to spin a turbine , are also relatively fast to start up .
Steam turbines often require more time .
A fuel heats up water to form steam , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ temperature , pressure , and moisture content thresholds before it can be directed to a turbine that can spin the electricity generator .
Nuclear power plants use steam turbines , but these plants have additional time-intensive processes that involve managing their nuclear fuel .
Almost all nuclear power plants require more than 12 hours to reach full operations .
Power plants that require more than 12 hours to start up are increasingly rare .
Only 4 % of the generating capacity that came online from 2010 to 2019 requires more than half a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ gas combined-cycle systems , which involve both a steam turbine and a combustion turbine , account for more capacity than any other generating technology in the United States .
Most of those systems can reach full operations in between 1 hour to 12 hours , although some can start up within an hour .
The percentage of the generator fleet that does not respond to this question in EIA ’ s survey has doubled—from 6 % in 2013 , when EIA first collected this data , to 12 % in 2019—as a result @ @ @ @ @ @ @ wind power plants added in recent years .
This question is not relevant for these types of plants .

Guess “Did you know?” by David Middleton
In a world where mostly unreliable power plant (solar & wind) construction is on the rise, backup power generation becomes more important every day. Unreliable generation capacity in the US has doubled since 2013 and now comprises 12% of our generating capacity. Backup power needs to be able to spin up quickly, ideally within minutes, certainly in less than 1 hour.
NOVEMBER 19, 2020
About 25% of U.S. power plants can start up within an hour
About 25% of U.S. power plants can start up—going from being shut down to fully operating—within one hour, based on data collected in EIA’s annual survey of electric generators. Some power plants, especially those powered by coal and nuclear fuel, require more than half a day to reach full operations. The time it takes a power plant to reach full operations can affect the reliability and operations of the electric grid.
Generator startup time differs across electricity-generating technologies because of the differences in the complexity of electricity generating processes, especially when starting again after all processes have been stopped (cold shut down). A generator’s startup time is different from a generator’s ramp rate, which reflects how quickly that generator can modify its power output once it’s operating.
Most hydroelectric turbines, which use flowing water to spin a turbine, can go from cold start to full operations in less than 10 minutes. Combustion turbines, which use a combusted fuel-air mixture to spin a turbine, are also relatively fast to start up.
Steam turbines often require more time. A fuel heats up water to form steam, and that steam needs to reach certain temperature, pressure, and moisture content thresholds before it can be directed to a turbine that can spin the electricity generator.
Nuclear power plants use steam turbines, but these plants have additional time-intensive processes that involve managing their nuclear fuel. Almost all nuclear power plants require more than 12 hours to reach full operations. Power plants that require more than 12 hours to start up are increasingly rare. Only 4% of the generating capacity that came online from 2010 to 2019 requires more than half a day to reach full load.
Natural gas combined-cycle systems, which involve both a steam turbine and a combustion turbine, account for more capacity than any other generating technology in the United States. Most of those systems can reach full operations in between 1 hour to 12 hours, although some can start up within an hour.
The percentage of the generator fleet that does not respond to this question in EIA’s survey has doubled—from 6% in 2013, when EIA first collected this data, to 12% in 2019—as a result of the number of utility-scale solar and wind power plants added in recent years. This question is not relevant for these types of plants.
Principal contributor: Owen Comstock


wattsupwiththat--2020-11-20--Slower decay of landfalling Hurricanes in a warmer world — really?

A recent paper published in “ Nature ” made some excitement in the media , see here or here .
In the paper by Li & Chakraborty ( L & C 2020 thereafter ) , the authors find a statistically significant increase of the decay time when a North Atlantic hurricane makes a landfall due to warmer SST in a warming environment .
They also undertake some model-related research about the impact of this observations .
The key point of thepaper is the finding that warmer SSTs lengthen the decay time of hurricanes after landfalls .
In L & C @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 1f : Fig.1 : The reproduction of Fig.1 f in L & C 2020 .
The ordinate reflects the decay time τ in hours .
In the legend the authors state : “ We note that the τ time series echoes the SST time series with Pearson correlation r = 0.73.
” The authors describe the way they found the relation , which declares an increase of the decay time of more than 40 hours per 1K SST increase : “ We average τ for all the landfall events in a given year @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in a row , to this time series.
” They made a regression with strongly smoothed time series , a procedure that is normally frowned on .
In the supplementary data ( freely available ) one can download an Excel sheet where the raw data used can be found .
For the deduction of the increasing τ with increasing SST ( in the area 10°N…35°N ; 100°W…75°W , the authors take advantage of the data for 71 landfalling hurricanes during 1967 to 2018 .
The SST for each event is determined as follows @ @ @ @ @ @ @ time over the hurricane season , June–November , … ” The result “ R=0.73 ” , see Fig.1 , of the linear regression implies that 53 % of the variation of τ comes from the variation of the SST .
I had a look at the raw data and a few questions arose : • The use of the average SST of the whole hurricane season for a single event ?
The actual named hurricane develops over a few days in an actual environment , not the average SST of the actual whole @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the landfall happens during July or November , the average SST difference is 1.8 K in this case , which is much more than the range of the abscissa in Fig.1 .
The use of the seasonal average SST for all hurricanes during that season , rather than the actual SST applicable to each hurricane , has the potential to produce highly misleading results .
The average SST applicable to each hurricane might have little relationship with the average SST during the whole season • The use of the average of all τ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hurricane is involved ?
Every hurricane event is a discrete event .
In the raw data many years have only one hurricane per year , these events are not averaged of course .
• Applying a double 3 years smoothing before making the regression shown in Fig.1 .
?
“ this approach lessens the effects of non-climatic factors and random noise ” .
However , the whole research is about the point : ” To what degree impact the actual SST the decay time of landfalling hurricanes ?
” There will be some @ @ @ @ @ @ @ appropriate to smooth over several years partly out to elicit a strong climate related signal .
Applying a 3-year smoothing to both decay time and SST data twice in a row is unjustifiable .
I decided to recalculate the regression shown in Fig.1 but I used the actual SST for every hurricane from the monthly ERSSTv5 data for the described area .
I included every hurricane because this is the physical approach : It ’ s not justified at all to use an average in some years and in some years not , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hurricanes depending on how many are included in the raw data in each year .
I also use the unsmoothed data to avoid spurious correlations due to the applied smoothing .
This is the result : Fig.2 : The regression of the decay time on the SST without the data-preconditioning in L & C 2020 .
There is only a tiny non significant trend in the raw data- p=0.1 , so the slope does not reach the standard 95 % confidence level .
On twitter Ryan Maue questioned the raw data selection ; @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this post .
The outcome of L & C 2020 is very overconfident when it comes to the dependency of the decay time on the SST .
The R²=0.53 found in LC 2020 vanishes to an insignificant 0.04 if one uses the physical data , without the applying of unjustified averages and smoothing actions prior to the regression .
The SST impact on the decay time is negligible , other influences accounting for almost all variability in the decay time .
The peer review process of “ Nature ” for L & C @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it makes wonder if there was no reviewer with some fundamental skills in statistics involved .
However , this must be the case unfortunately : In the “ methods-statistical significance ” section the authors mention a test for autocorrelation and there is written : “ ( which we test using the Dublin–Watson test ) ” .
This must be a typo , the name of the test is “ Durbin– Watson ” .
One should hope that the peer review process of “ Nature ” would be improved soon to avoid overconfident , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2020 .

Reposted from Dr. Judith Curry’s Climate Etc.
Posted on November 17, 2020 by curryja
by Frank Bosse
A recent paper published in “Nature” made some excitement in the media, see here or here.
In the paper by Li & Chakraborty (L&C 2020 thereafter), the authors find a statistically significant increase of the decay time when a North Atlantic hurricane makes a landfall due to warmer SST in a warming environment. They also undertake some model-related research about the impact of this observations.
The key point of thepaper is the finding that warmer SSTs lengthen the decay time of hurricanes after landfalls.
In L&C 2020, this is shown by figure 1f:
Fig.1: The reproduction of Fig.1 f in L&C 2020. The ordinate reflects the decay time τ in hours.
In the legend the authors state: “We note that the τ time series echoes the SST time series with Pearson correlation r = 0.73.”
The authors describe the way they found the relation, which declares an increase of the decay time of more than 40 hours per 1K SST increase:
“We average τ for all the landfall events in a given year and apply a 3-year smoothing, twice in a row, to this time series.”
They made a regression with strongly smoothed time series, a procedure that is normally frowned on.
In the supplementary data (freely available) one can download an Excel sheet where the raw data used can be found.
For the deduction of the increasing τ with increasing SST (in the area 10°N…35°N ; 100°W…75°W , the authors take advantage of the data for 71 landfalling hurricanes during 1967 to 2018.
The SST for each event is determined as follows:
“We average the SST in time over the hurricane season, June–November, …”
The result “R=0.73”, see Fig.1, of the linear regression implies that 53% of the variation of τ comes from the variation of the SST.
I had a look at the raw data and a few questions arose:
The use of the average SST of the whole hurricane season for a single event?
The actual named hurricane develops over a few days in an actual environment, not the average SST of the actual whole season. It makes a difference if the landfall happens during July or November, the average SST difference is 1.8 K in this case, which is much more than the range of the abscissa in Fig.1 .
The use of the seasonal average SST for all hurricanes during that season, rather than the actual SST applicable to each hurricane, has the potential to produce highly misleading results. The average SST applicable to each hurricane might have little relationship with the average SST during the whole season
The use of the average of all τ in a year if more than one hurricane is involved?
Every hurricane event is a discrete event. In the raw data many years have only one hurricane per year, these events are not averaged of course.
Applying a double 3 years smoothing before making the regression shown in Fig.1. ?
The authors state:
“this approach lessens the effects of non-climatic factors and random noise”.
However, the whole research is about the point:”To what degree impact the actual SST the decay time of landfalling hurricanes?” There will be some other influences and it’s not appropriate to smooth over several years partly out to elicit a strong climate related signal. Applying a 3-year smoothing to both decay time and SST data twice in a row is unjustifiable.
I decided to recalculate the regression shown in Fig.1 but I used the actual SST for every hurricane from the monthly ERSSTv5 data for the described area. I included every hurricane because this is the physical approach: It’s not justified at all to use an average in some years and in some years not, as that gives radically different weightings to hurricanes depending on how many are included in the raw data in each year.
I also use the unsmoothed data to avoid spurious correlations due to the applied smoothing.
This is the result:
Fig.2: The regression of the decay time on the SST without the data-preconditioning in L&C 2020.
There is only a tiny non significant trend in the raw data- p=0.1, so the slope does not reach the standard 95% confidence level.
On twitter Ryan Maue questioned the raw data selection; that issue is beyond the scope of this post.
The outcome of L&C 2020 is very overconfident when it comes to the dependency of the decay time on the SST. The R²=0.53 found in LC 2020 vanishes to an insignificant 0.04 if one uses the physical data, without the applying of unjustified averages and smoothing actions prior to the regression.
This means:
The SST impact on the decay time is negligible, other influences accounting for almost all variability in the decay time.
The peer review process of “Nature” for L&C 2020 lasted more than 8 months, it makes wonder if there was no reviewer with some fundamental skills in statistics involved.
However, this must be the case unfortunately: In the “methods-statistical significance” section the authors mention a test for autocorrelation and there is written: “(which we test using the Dublin–Watson test)”. This must be a typo, the name of the test is “Durbin– Watson”.
One should hope that the peer review process of “Nature” would be improved soon to avoid overconfident, obviously flawed papers like L&C 2020.
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wattsupwiththat--2020-11-21--German Parliament Accused of Passing a Covid-19 Enabling Act

h/t Carl Friis-Hansen ; Protestors in Germany have accused the state of endangering citizens rights , by granting the German executive sweeping powers to shut premises or impose curfews to control Covid-19 outbreaks .
But advocates claim the law requires greater oversight of Covid-19 lockdown decisions , and provides special protection for cultural events .
Large crowds protested in Berlin against the German government ’ s push to enshrine coronavirus restrictions into an existing law .
Police intervened as the crowds sought to approach the parliament .
“ Police calling on demonstrators to leave .
Lots of booing .
Demonstrators @ @ @ @ @ @ @ where new additions to infection law are being debated [ at the moment , ] , ” DW ’ s Nina Haase reported from the scene .
A tense standoff ensued , as police tried to convince the crowd to disperse amid cries of “ We are the people !
” and as some protesters started singing the national anthem .
What do the new rules entail ?
Germany ’ s lower and upper houses passed changes to Germany ’ s existing infection protection law , catering more specifically to the coronavirus pandemic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ government to impose restrictions on social contact , rules on mask-wearing , drinking alcohol in public , shutting shops and stopping sports events .
Demonstrators who took part in the Wednesday protests did not actively wear masks or socially distance .
But one participant wore a face mask with the words “ Merkel-Muzzle , ” while others held banners with slogans such as “ For Enlightenment .
Peace and Freedom.
” Critics say the coronavirus laws would give the government too much power and endanger citizens ’ civil rights .
The right-wing populist @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the proposed measures with the Enabling Act of 1933 that paved the way towards Adolf Hitler ’ s dictatorship , particularly in its social media postings .
A senior AfD member , Bernd Baumann , drew the same parallel in the Bundestag .

The Striezelmarkt in Dresden, Germany, is considered the first genuine Christmas market in the world. By LH DD/Dittrich – Own work, CC BY-SA 3.0, link
Guest essay by Eric Worrall
h/t Carl Friis-Hansen; Protestors in Germany have accused the state of endangering citizens rights, by granting the German executive sweeping powers to shut premises or impose curfews to control Covid-19 outbreaks. But advocates claim the law requires greater oversight of Covid-19 lockdown decisions, and provides special protection for cultural events.
Police break up large Berlin protests as Germany passes tougher coronavirus laws Large crowds protested in Berlin against the German government’s push to enshrine coronavirus restrictions into an existing law. Police intervened as the crowds sought to approach the parliament.
“Police calling on demonstrators to leave. Lots of booing. Demonstrators want to access cordoned-off area around parliament where new additions to infection law are being debated [at the moment,],” DW’s Nina Haase reported from the scene. A tense standoff ensued, as police tried to convince the crowd to disperse amid cries of “We are the people!” and as some protesters started singing the national anthem. … What do the new rules entail? Germany’s lower and upper houses passed changes to Germany’s existing infection protection law, catering more specifically to the coronavirus pandemic. The new measures will enable the government to impose restrictions on social contact, rules on mask-wearing, drinking alcohol in public, shutting shops and stopping sports events. … Demonstrators who took part in the Wednesday protests did not actively wear masks or socially distance. But one participant wore a face mask with the words “Merkel-Muzzle,” while others held banners with slogans such as “For Enlightenment. Peace and Freedom.” Critics say the coronavirus laws would give the government too much power and endanger citizens’civil rights. The right-wing populist AfD has even gone as far comparing the proposed measures with the Enabling Act of 1933 that paved the way towards Adolf Hitler’s dictatorship, particularly in its social media postings. A senior AfD member, Bernd Baumann, drew the same parallel in the Bundestag. … Read more: https://www.dw.com/en/police-break-up-large-berlin-protests-as-germany-passes-tougher-coronavirus-laws/a-55644706
The German art community seems happy about the new laws. A leading arts advocate claims the new laws for the first time recognise cultural events as being distinct from art exhibitions.
German Infection law: A new legal status for culture Date 19.11.2020
Author Dagmar Breitenbach Under Germany’s infection protection law, culture is no longer classified as entertainment. Canceling arts events in the pandemic might become difficult. In Germany’s recently passed Infection Protection Law, culture now has an enhanced legal status as the government fights the coronavirus pandemic by restricting certain fundamental rights enshrined in the German constitution. Previously, decrees were used to meet the crisis — including the weeks-long closure of theaters, concert halls, museums and other venues and the blanket ban of most arts and entertainment events in the Spring, and again in November 2020. ‘Good thing:’ New status for culture The German Culture Council has welcomed the change to the legislation that now gives culture a special status. … Read more: https://www.dw.com/en/german-infection-law-a-new-legal-status-for-culture/a-55660182
What a mess. If I have understood correctly, under the new laws you might be arbitrarily banned from visiting your family at Christmas or even be required to self isolate by remaining indoors at home, but in the middle of all this lockdown mania you could still be granted a special pass to attend cultural events like Oktoberfest or a visit to Germany’s famous Christmas markets, because major cultural events now enjoy special privileges.
Note: Comments which use the name “Hitler” in the text of the comments will be automatically trashed.
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wattsupwiththat--2020-11-21--TCI: Taxing the Poor to Benefit the Rich

“ I think TCI is just taxing poor people so that we can subsidize rich people ’ s electric cars.
” So said New Jersey ’ s Maria Lopez-Nuñez , Deputy Director , Organizing and Advocacy for the Ironbound Community Corporation .
She was speaking during an online seminar September 29 organized by Transportation and Climate Initiative advocates .
That particular comment can be heard at about 3:10 into this recording of her speech .
The full meeting is recorded here , and her remarks start at about 1hour and 43 minutes in .
Listen to her whole speech if @ @ @ @ @ @ @ follow and you will learn she was not alone .
Lopez-Nunez is dead on correct that TCI imposes a major and very regressive tax to deliver minor reductions in CO2 emissions , and that moving people into electric cars merely moves the source of CO2 emissions from the roads to the power plants .
Run the projected CO2 emissions savings from TCI through the climate change models at the heart of this whole worldwide debate and the result is infinitesimal changes in the feared future temperature increases .
Selling this as saving the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ push is on to find a new rationale .
The effort to make that “ environmental justice ” by targeting the tax money to their causes is not being well received .
Earlier this week , Governor Charlie Baker of Massachusetts indicated he and other governors are reconsidering this new tax and cap scheme for fuels in the middle of a deep recession .
The discontent flowing back from the low-income , racial-justice and environmental-justice crowd TCI sought to recruit may also be weighing on their minds .
That is a typical used @ @ @ @ @ @ @ TCI carbon tax extracted from all gas or diesel purchases would be subsidies for electric cars .
Our Governor Ralph Northam has said nothing about his plans in Virginia , or whether he was one of those Baker was discussing .
The Virginia media is not asking .
Despite the short time left before the session , the actual memorandum of understanding is still being held secret .
Lopez-Nunez ’ s comments during the meeting were followed by a formal call from her organization for New Jersey to reject membership in the 12-state @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Her group ’ s denunciation was joined by Clean Water Action New Jersey and NJ Environmental Justice Alliance .
Their complaints are spelled out in a release .
They state TCI : • Fails to mandate pollution reductions .
TCI ’ s reliance on direct and indirect trading is likely to disproportionately impact EJ communities — calling TCI “ cap and invest ” rather than “ cap and trade ” doesn ’ t change that .
• Proceeds are not put in a lock box .
There is no guarantee that funds @ @ @ @ @ @ @ communities .
History is almost certain to repeat itself regardless of who is in office.Billions of dollars of “ dedicated ” funds have been raided from NJ programs like NJ Transit , Clean Energy , lead mitigation , and more for unintended purposes .
• Commitment to “ transparency ” and “ equity ” rings hollow and has , in the past , failed to create a meaningful decision making role for EJ voices .
• Imposes a regressive gas tax fee structure , not a true polluter-pay mechanism .
Despite recent increases @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the cost will be passed on to those that can least afford a tax hike or an electric car , instead of making companies pay for their pollution and contribution to climate change .
• Better solutions exist .
Federal and state regulatory and financial authority is already substantial and more effective .
“ TCI to date has been tone deaf at best and racist at worst , ” Lopez-Nunez is quoted in the release .
“ The world is on fire and we need bold , visionary solutions that center those most @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
We will not settle for half measures that uphold decades of bad policy development in the way TCI has.
” The 2021 Virginia General Assembly will be asked to authorize Virginia ’ s membership in TCI .
It should be done in legislation , but there is a chance the Northam Administration will try to sneak it through with budget language .
The basic workings of the compact have been explained before and will be again , but many details are still shrouded in that missing MOU .
Will we see it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to vote ?
The first carbon tax to be imposed on Virginians , part of a similar interstate compact known as the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative , will add about 2 % to electric bills starting next summer .
Early information from TCI has mentioned that the carbon allowance will add about 17 cents per gallon to the price of gasoline ( about an 8 % increase ) , but its own internal documents point to a first year cost more like 20 cents per gallon , growing to more than 30 cents @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Thomas Jefferson Institute for Public Policy projected 33 cents per gallon .
The proposed 25-percent reduction in CO2 emissions from fossil fuels will be accomplished not by the tax , but by a cap on the sale of gasoline and diesel fuel within the Maine to Virginia region .
The number of allowances available under the cap to fuel wholesalers will slowly shrink .
With a market move already underway to electric or hybrid vehicles , much of the goal will be achieved without this regime .

Reposted from baconsrebellion.com
New Jersey environmental justice advocate Maria Lopez-Nunez, lower left, speaks with organizers of the Transportation and Climate Initiative on September 29. Hear her here.
Posted on November 20, 2020
By Steve Haner
“I think TCI is just taxing poor people so that we can subsidize rich people’s electric cars.”
So said New Jersey’s Maria Lopez-Nuñez, Deputy Director, Organizing and Advocacy for the Ironbound Community Corporation. She was speaking during an online seminar September 29 organized by Transportation and Climate Initiative advocates.
That particular comment can be heard at about 3:10 into this recording
of her speech. The full meeting is recorded here, and her remarks start at about 1hour and 43 minutes in. Listen to her whole speech if you can. Listen to those that follow and you will learn she was not alone.
Lopez-Nunez is dead on correct that TCI imposes a major and very regressive tax to deliver minor reductions in CO2 emissions, and that moving people into electric cars merely moves the source of CO2 emissions from the roads to the power plants.
Run the projected CO2 emissions savings from TCI through the climate change models at the heart of this whole worldwide debate and the result is infinitesimal changes in the feared future temperature increases. Selling this as saving the planet is not credible, so the push is on to find a new rationale. The effort to make that “environmental justice” by targeting the tax money to their causes is not being well received.
Earlier this week, Governor Charlie Baker of Massachusetts indicated he and other governors are reconsidering this new tax and cap scheme for fuels in the middle of a deep recession. The discontent flowing back from the low-income, racial-justice and environmental-justice crowd TCI sought to recruit may also be weighing on their minds.
That is a typical used price. One promoted use of the TCI carbon tax extracted from all gas or diesel purchases would be subsidies for electric cars.
Our Governor Ralph Northam has said nothing about his plans in Virginia, or whether he was one of those Baker was discussing. The Virginia media is not asking. Despite the short time left before the session, the actual memorandum of understanding is still being held secret.
Lopez-Nunez’s comments during the meeting were followed by a formal call from her organization for New Jersey to reject membership in the 12-state compact with its carbon tax on gasoline. Her group’s denunciation was joined by Clean Water Action New Jersey and NJ Environmental Justice Alliance.
Their complaints are spelled out in a release. They state TCI:
Fails to mandate pollution reductions . TCI’s reliance on direct and indirect trading is likely to disproportionately impact EJ communities — calling TCI “cap and invest” rather than “cap and trade” doesn’t change that.
. TCI’s reliance on direct and indirect trading is likely to disproportionately impact EJ communities — calling TCI “cap and invest” rather than “cap and trade” doesn’t change that. Proceeds are not put in a lock box. There is no guarantee that funds collected will benefit climate initiatives and EJ communities. History is almost certain to repeat itself regardless of who is in office.Billions of dollars of “dedicated” funds have been raided from NJ programs like NJ Transit, Clean Energy, lead mitigation, and more for unintended purposes.
There is no guarantee that funds collected will benefit climate initiatives and EJ communities. History is almost certain to repeat itself regardless of who is in office.Billions of dollars of “dedicated” funds have been raided from NJ programs like NJ Transit, Clean Energy, lead mitigation, and more for unintended purposes. Commitment to “transparency” and “equity” rings hollow and has, in the past, failed to create a meaningful decision making role for EJ voices.
and has, in the past, failed to create a meaningful decision making role for EJ voices. Imposes a regressive gas tax fee structure, not a true polluter-pay mechanism. Despite recent increases to the gas tax and tolls, the cost will be passed on to those that can least afford a tax hike or an electric car, instead of making companies pay for their pollution and contribution to climate change.
Despite recent increases to the gas tax and tolls, the cost will be passed on to those that can least afford a tax hike or an electric car, instead of making companies pay for their pollution and contribution to climate change. Better solutions exist. Federal and state regulatory and financial authority is already substantial and more effective.
“TCI to date has been tone deaf at best and racist at worst,” Lopez-Nunez is quoted in the release. “The world is on fire and we need bold, visionary solutions that center those most directly impacted to build a just society. We will not settle for half measures that uphold decades of bad policy development in the way TCI has.”
The 2021 Virginia General Assembly will be asked to authorize Virginia’s membership in TCI. It should be done in legislation, but there is a chance the Northam Administration will try to sneak it through with budget language. The basic workings of the compact have been explained before and will be again, but many details are still shrouded in that missing MOU. Will we see it before or after the legislators are asked to vote?
The first carbon tax to be imposed on Virginians, part of a similar interstate compact known as the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative, will add about 2% to electric bills starting next summer. Early information from TCI has mentioned that the carbon allowance will add about 17 cents per gallon to the price of gasoline (about an 8% increase), but its own internal documents point to a first year cost more like 20 cents per gallon, growing to more than 30 cents by 2032. A review requested by the Thomas Jefferson Institute for Public Policy projected 33 cents per gallon.
The proposed 25-percent reduction in CO2 emissions from fossil fuels will be accomplished not by the tax, but by a cap on the sale of gasoline and diesel fuel within the Maine to Virginia region. The number of allowances available under the cap to fuel wholesalers will slowly shrink. With a market move already underway to electric or hybrid vehicles, much of the goal will be achieved without this regime.
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wattsupwiththat--2020-11-21--“Sinking” Maldives Clear Forests, Pave Beaches, To Construct Four New Airports For Future Tourism!

Reposted from The No Trick Zone Despite all the money-generating gloomy predictions of sinking islands , we reported in 2013 on how the Maldives was planning to build 30 new luxury hotels for future tourists .
The resort island of Landaa Giraavaru ( Baa atoll ) , photo by : Frédéric Ducarme – CC BY-SA 4.0 .
We recall how in 2012 , the former President of the Maldives Islands , Mohamed , Nasheed said : “ If carbon emissions continue at the rate they are climbing today , my country will be underwater in seven years.
” Well , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and remains popular with tourists like never before .
And to help with the job of ferrying the 1.7 million ( 2019 ) tourists to and from the resort islands , the Maldives have recently opened 4 new airports , according to German site Aero here !
No , the airports are not designed to evacuate tourists because sea levels are “ rapidly rising ” , as climate alarmists claim .
The airports are a long-term investment aimed at drawing in even more tourists and they are based on the projection that they @ @ @ @ @ @ @ unhindered operation in 30 or 50 years from now .
Obviously the catastrophic climate warnings are not being heeded .
Most likely these warnings are not really serious at all .
The Maldives comprise 1200 islands , which were made accessible through a total of ten airports .
However , they are not enough to handle the expected traffic .
So four new domestic airports would open this year alone , announced Transportation and Aviation Minister Aishath Nahula , The new airports will feature 2200 meter runways , thus allowing commercial passenger jets @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Aero , citing the Arabian Business news site , some 52 million dollars was financed by Abu Dhabi to cover the construction costs .
Environmentalists expressed anger at the project because “ forests had to be cut down and beaches concreted over ” .

Reposted from The No Trick Zone
By P Gosselin on 20. November 2020
Despite all the money-generating gloomy predictions of sinking islands, we reported in 2013 on how the Maldives was planning to build 30 new luxury hotels for future tourists.
The resort island of Landaa Giraavaru (Baa atoll), photo by: Frédéric Ducarme – CC BY-SA 4.0.
Underwater in 7 years?
We recall how in 2012, the former President of the Maldives Islands, Mohamed, Nasheed said: “If carbon emissions continue at the rate they are climbing today, my country will be underwater in seven years.”
4 new airports!
Well, today the islands have not gone underwater and remains popular with tourists like never before. And to help with the job of ferrying the 1.7 million (2019) tourists to and from the resort islands, the Maldives have recently opened 4 new airports, according to German site Aero here! .
Long-term investment defies alarmist claims
No, the airports are not designed to evacuate tourists because sea levels are “rapidly rising”, as climate alarmists claim. The airports are a long-term investment aimed at drawing in even more tourists and they are based on the projection that they’ll still be very much in unhindered operation in 30 or 50 years from now. Obviously the catastrophic climate warnings are not being heeded. Most likely these warnings are not really serious at all.
The Maldives comprise 1200 islands, which were made accessible through a total of ten airports. However, they are not enough to handle the expected traffic. So four new domestic airports would open this year alone, announced Transportation and Aviation Minister Aishath Nahula,
Deforestation, paved beaches
The new airports will feature 2200 meter runways, thus allowing commercial passenger jets to takeoff and land. According to Aero, citing the Arabian Business news site, some 52 million dollars was financed by Abu Dhabi to cover the construction costs.
Environmentalists expressed anger at the project because “forests had to be cut down and beaches concreted over”.
Hat-tip: Die kalte Sonne
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wattsupwiththat--2020-11-22--Five rules for evidence communication

Five rules for evidence communication

“ Avoid unwarranted certainty , neat narratives and partisan presentation ; strive to inform , not persuade.
” I just spotted this Comment in Nature : Five rules for evidence communication .
Once I spotted co-author David Spiegenhalter , I knew this would be good .
I have definitely been in need of an antidote to the Covid-19 and global warming propaganda that I ’ ve come across lately .
I ’ m also working on a new climate change presentation ; this provides an excellent check list .
Here is a [ link ] to the article ( freely @ @ @ @ @ @ @ myriad examples from the current pandemic of which we might ask : have experts always been explicit in acknowledging unknowns ?
Complexity ?
Conflicts of interest ?
Inconvenient data ?
And , importantly , their own values ?
Our small , interdisciplinary group at the University of Cambridge , UK , collects empirical data on issues such as how to communicate uncertainty , how audiences decide what evidence to trust , and how narratives affect people ’ s decision-making .
Our aim is to design communications that do not lead people to a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ understand what is known about a topic and to make up their own minds on the basis of that evidence .
In our view , it is important to be clear about motivations , present data fully and clearly , and share sources .
We recognize that the world is in an ‘ infodemic ’ , with false information spreading virally on social media .
Therefore , many scientists feel they are in an arms race of communication techniques .
But consider the replication crisis , which has been blamed in part on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and focus on a story rather than on full and neutral reporting of what they have done .
We worry that the urge to persuade or to tell a simple story can damage credibility and trustworthiness .
So how do we demonstrate good intentions ?
We have to be open about our motivations , conflicts and limitations .
Scientists whose objectives are perceived as prioritizing persuasion risk losing trust .
When zoologist John Krebs became chair of the UK Food Standards Agency in the 2000s , he faced a deluge of crises , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cattle disease bovine spongiform encephalopathy .
He adopted the following strategy : • say what you know ; • what you don ’ t know ; • what you are doing to find out ; • what people can do in the meantime to be on the safe side ; and The aim is to ‘ inform but not persuade ’ , and — as the philosopher of trust Onora O ’ Neill says — “ to be accessible , comprehensible , usable and assessable ” .
• Address all the questions and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Present potential benefits and possible harms in the same way so that they can be compared fairly .
• Avoid the biases inherent in any presentation format ( for example , use both ‘ positive ’ and ‘ negative ’ framing together ) .
• Use numbers alone , or both words and numbers .
• Demonstrate ‘ unapologetic uncertainty ’ : be open about a range of possible outcomes .
• When you don ’ t know , say so ; say what you are going to do to find out , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ quality and relevance of the underlying evidence ( for example , describe the data set ) .
• Use a carefully designed layout in a clear order , and include sources .
Trust is crucial .
Always aiming to ‘ sell the science ’ doesn ’ t help the scientific process or the scientific community in the long run , just as it doesn ’ t help people ( patients , the public or policymakers ) to make informed decisions in the short term .
That requires good evidence communication .
Ironically , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of that .
The Supplementary Information is a longer version of this , well worth reading also .

Reposted from Climate Etc.
Posted on November 21, 2020 by curryja |
by Judith Curry
“Avoid unwarranted certainty, neat narratives and partisan presentation; strive to inform, not persuade.”
I just spotted this Comment in Nature: Five rules for evidence communication. Once I spotted co-author David Spiegenhalter, I knew this would be good. I have definitely been in need of an antidote to the Covid-19 and global warming propaganda that I’ve come across lately. I’m also working on a new climate change presentation; this provides an excellent check list.
Here is a [link] to the article (freely accessible). Excerpts:
There are myriad examples from the current pandemic of which we might ask: have experts always been explicit in acknowledging unknowns? Complexity? Conflicts of interest? Inconvenient data? And, importantly, their own values?
Our small, interdisciplinary group at the University of Cambridge, UK, collects empirical data on issues such as how to communicate uncertainty, how audiences decide what evidence to trust, and how narratives affect people’s decision-making. Our aim is to design communications that do not lead people to a particular decision, but help them to understand what is known about a topic and to make up their own minds on the basis of that evidence. In our view, it is important to be clear about motivations, present data fully and clearly, and share sources.
We recognize that the world is in an ‘infodemic’, with false information spreading virally on social media. Therefore, many scientists feel they are in an arms race of communication techniques. But consider the replication crisis, which has been blamed in part on researchers being incentivized to sell their work and focus on a story rather than on full and neutral reporting of what they have done. We worry that the urge to persuade or to tell a simple story can damage credibility and trustworthiness.
So how do we demonstrate good intentions? We have to be open about our motivations, conflicts and limitations. Scientists whose objectives are perceived as prioritizing persuasion risk losing trust.
Inform, not persuade
Offer balance, not false balance
Disclose uncertainties
State evidence quality
Inoculate against misinformation
When zoologist John Krebs became chair of the UK Food Standards Agency in the 2000s, he faced a deluge of crises, including dioxins in milk and the infectious cattle disease bovine spongiform encephalopathy. He adopted the following strategy:
say what you know;
what you don’t know;
what you are doing to find out;
what people can do in the meantime to be on the safe side; and
that advice will change.
Quick tips for sharing evidence
The aim is to ‘inform but not persuade’, and — as the philosopher of trust Onora O’Neill says — “to be accessible, comprehensible, usable and assessable”.
Address all the questions and concerns of the target audience.
Anticipate misunderstandings; pre-emptively debunk or explain them.
Don’t cherry-pick findings.
Present potential benefits and possible harms in the same way so that they can be compared fairly.
Avoid the biases inherent in any presentation format (for example, use both ‘positive’ and ‘negative’ framing together).
Use numbers alone, or both words and numbers.
Demonstrate ‘unapologetic uncertainty’: be open about a range of possible outcomes.
When you don’t know, say so; say what you are going to do to find out, and by when.
Highlight the quality and relevance of the underlying evidence (for example, describe the data set).
Use a carefully designed layout in a clear order, and include sources.
Trust is crucial. Always aiming to ‘sell the science’ doesn’t help the scientific process or the scientific community in the long run, just as it doesn’t help people (patients, the public or policymakers) to make informed decisions in the short term. That requires good evidence communication. Ironically, we hope we’ve persuaded you of that.
The Supplementary Information is a longer version of this, well worth reading also.
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