wattsupwiththat--2020-04-15--Amazon Fires Employee Climate Warrior Leaders

Amazon has finally lost patience with their employee climate warriors , after they extended their activism to include complaining about Amazon ’ s alleged Coronavirus shortcomings .
Amazon fires employees who spoke out about coronavirus and climate change Last Friday afternoon , Amazon fired two of its tech employees after they publicly criticized its coronavirus policies .
Those employees , Emily Cunningham and Maren Costa , both user experience designers with 21 years of service at the company between them , were among the leaders of an internal worker group formed in December 2018 with the aim of pressuring Amazon @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ambitious climate targets .
The group , Amazon Employees for Climate Justice ( AECJ ) , has recently widened its focus to embrace the struggles of frontline Amazon employees at fulfillment centers across the country .
Cunningham and Costa were fired after they wrote tweets criticizing the company for putting workers and the public at risk and offering to match up to $ 500 in donations to a fund for Amazon warehouse workers exposed to COVID-19 .
I 'm matching donations up to $ 500 to support my Amazon warehouse worker colleagues .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ working conditions '' puts them and the public at risk .
It 's bad ya'll… THREAD https : //t.co/bvR5mUF85H — Emily Cunningham ( @ emahlee ) March 27 , 2020 I am matching donations to $ 500 to support my Amazon warehouse colleagues and their communities , while they struggle to get consistent , sufficient protections and procedures from our employer .
DM or comment for match .
https : //t.co/sK6EKP9KHi # via @ Chuffed — marencosta ( @ marencosta ) March 27 , 2020 Amazon Employees for Climate Justice been making ridiculous @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pressuring Amazon apply a climate morality test to everyone Amazon engages with , so I ’ m not about to take their Coronavirus claims at face value .
Having said that , employee safety is a hot-button issue , especially so if the concerns about Coronavirus safety are genuine .
Even if the concerns are not genuine , wannabe climate warriors might use fake concerns about Coronavirus as cover for disrupting Amazon ’ s business .
Either way , I doubt we ’ ve heard the last from Amazon ’ s employee climate @ @

Guest essay by Eric Worrall
Amazon has finally lost patience with their employee climate warriors, after they extended their activism to include complaining about Amazon’s alleged Coronavirus shortcomings.
Amazon fires employees who spoke out about coronavirus and climate change By Zoya Teirstein on Apr 14, 2020 … Last Friday afternoon, Amazon fired two of its tech employees after they publicly criticized its coronavirus policies. Those employees, Emily Cunningham and Maren Costa, both user experience designers with 21 years of service at the company between them, were among the leaders of an internal worker group formed in December 2018 with the aim of pressuring Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos to commit to more ambitious climate targets. The group, Amazon Employees for Climate Justice (AECJ), has recently widened its focus to embrace the struggles of frontline Amazon employees at fulfillment centers across the country. Cunningham and Costa were fired after they wrote tweets criticizing the company for putting workers and the public at risk and offering to match up to $500 in donations to a fund for Amazon warehouse workers exposed to COVID-19. I'm matching donations up to $500 to support my Amazon warehouse worker colleagues. "The lack of safe and sanitary working conditions" puts them and the public at risk.
It's bad ya'll…
THREAD https://t.co/bvR5mUF85H — Emily Cunningham (@emahlee) March 27, 2020 I am matching donations to $500 to support my Amazon warehouse colleagues and their communities, while they struggle to get consistent, sufficient protections and procedures from our employer. DM or comment for match. https://t.co/sK6EKP9KHi # via @Chuffed — marencosta (@marencosta) March 27, 2020 … Read more: https://grist.org/justice/amazon-fires-employees-who-spoke-out-about-coronavirus-and-climate-change/
Amazon Employees for Climate Justice been making ridiculous demands since at least last September, pressuring Amazon apply a climate morality test to everyone Amazon engages with, so I’m not about to take their Coronavirus claims at face value.
Having said that, employee safety is a hot-button issue, especially so if the concerns about Coronavirus safety are genuine. Even if the concerns are not genuine, wannabe climate warriors might use fake concerns about Coronavirus as cover for disrupting Amazon’s business.
Either way, I doubt we’ve heard the last from Amazon’s employee climate warriors.
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Brightest-ever supernova discovered

A supernova at least twice as bright and energetic , and likely much more massive than any yet recorded has been identified by an international team of astronomers , led by the University of Birmingham .
The team , which included experts from Harvard , Northwestern University and Ohio University , believe the supernova , dubbed SN2016aps , could be an example of an extremely rare ‘ pulsational pair-instability ’ supernova , possibly formed from two massive stars that merged before the explosion .
Their findings are published today in Nature Astronomy .
Such an event so far only exists @ @ @ @ @ @ @ through astronomical observations .
Dr Matt Nicholl , of the School of Physics and Astronomy and the Institute of Gravitational Wave Astronomy at the University of Birmingham , is lead author of the study .
He explains : “ We can measure supernovae using two scales – the total energy of the explosion , and the amount of that energy that is emitted as observable light , or radiation .
In order to become this bright , the explosion must have been much more energetic than usual .
By examining the light spectrum @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that the explosion was powered by a collision between the supernova and a massive shell of gas , shed by the star in the years before it exploded .
“ While many supernovae are discovered every night , most are in massive galaxies , ” said Dr Peter Blanchard , from Northwestern University and a co-author on the study .
“ This one immediately stood out for further observations because it seemed to be in the middle of nowhere .
We weren ’ t able to see the galaxy where this star was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ faded.
” The team observed the explosion for two years , until it faded to 1 per cent of its peak brightness .
Using these measurements , they calculated the mass of the supernova was between 50 to 100 times greater than our sun ( solar masses ) .
Typically supernovae have masses of between 8 and 15 solar masses .
“ Stars with extremely large mass undergo violent pulsations before they die , shaking off a giant gas shell .
This can be powered by a process called the pair instability , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for physicists for the last 50 years , ” says Dr Nicholl .
“ If the supernova gets the timing right , it can catch up to this shell and release a huge amount of energy in the collision .
We think this is one of the most compelling candidates for this process yet observed , and probably the most massive.
” “ SN2016aps also contained another puzzle , ” added Dr Nicholl .
“ The gas we detected was mostly hydrogen – but such a massive star would usually have lost all @ @ @ @ @ @ @ before it started pulsating .
One explanation is that two slightly less massive stars of around , say 60 solar masses , had merged before the explosion .
The lower mass stars hold onto their hydrogen for longer , while their combined mass is high enough to trigger the pair instability.
” “ Finding this extraordinary supernova couldn ’ t have come at a better time , ” according to Professor Edo Berger , a co-author from Harvard University .
“ Now that we know such energetic explosions occur in nature , NASA @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will be able to see similar events so far away that we can look back in time to the deaths of the very first stars in the Universe.
” Supernova 2016aps was first detected in data from the Panoramic Survey Telescope and Rapid Response System ( Pan-STARRS ) , a large-scale astronomical survey programme .
The team also used data from the Hubble Space Telescope , the Keck and Gemini Observatories , in Hawaii , and the MDM and MMT Observatories in Arizona .
Other collaborating institutions included Stockholm University , Copenhagen University @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Space Telescope Science Institute .
The research was funded through a Royal Astronomical Society Research Fellowship , along with grants from the National Science Foundation , NASA and the Horizon 2020 European Union Framework .

A supernova at least twice as bright and energetic, and likely much more massive than any yet recorded has been identified by an international team of astronomers, led by the University of Birmingham.
Artist rendition of the event.
Image by Aaron Geller (Northwestern University)
The team, which included experts from Harvard, Northwestern University and Ohio University, believe the supernova, dubbed SN2016aps, could be an example of an extremely rare ‘pulsational pair-instability’ supernova, possibly formed from two massive stars that merged before the explosion. Their findings are published today in Nature Astronomy.
Such an event so far only exists in theory and has never been confirmed through astronomical observations.
Dr Matt Nicholl, of the School of Physics and Astronomy and the Institute of Gravitational Wave Astronomy at the University of Birmingham, is lead author of the study. He explains: “We can measure supernovae using two scales – the total energy of the explosion, and the amount of that energy that is emitted as observable light, or radiation.
“In a typical supernova, the radiation is less than 1 per cent of the total energy. But in SN2016aps, we found the radiation was five times the explosion energy of a normal-sized supernova. This is the most light we have ever seen emitted by a supernova.”
In order to become this bright, the explosion must have been much more energetic than usual. By examining the light spectrum, the team were able to show that the explosion was powered by a collision between the supernova and a massive shell of gas, shed by the star in the years before it exploded.
“While many supernovae are discovered every night, most are in massive galaxies,” said Dr Peter Blanchard, from Northwestern University and a co-author on the study. “This one immediately stood out for further observations because it seemed to be in the middle of nowhere. We weren’t able to see the galaxy where this star was born until after the supernova light had faded.”
The team observed the explosion for two years, until it faded to 1 per cent of its peak brightness. Using these measurements, they calculated the mass of the supernova was between 50 to 100 times greater than our sun (solar masses). Typically supernovae have masses of between 8 and 15 solar masses.
“Stars with extremely large mass undergo violent pulsations before they die, shaking off a giant gas shell. This can be powered by a process called the pair instability, which has been a topic of speculation for physicists for the last 50 years,” says Dr Nicholl. “If the supernova gets the timing right, it can catch up to this shell and release a huge amount of energy in the collision. We think this is one of the most compelling candidates for this process yet observed, and probably the most massive.” “SN2016aps also contained another puzzle,” added Dr Nicholl. “The gas we detected was mostly hydrogen – but such a massive star would usually have lost all of its hydrogen via stellar winds long before it started pulsating. One explanation is that two slightly less massive stars of around, say 60 solar masses, had merged before the explosion. The lower mass stars hold onto their hydrogen for longer, while their combined mass is high enough to trigger the pair instability.”
“Finding this extraordinary supernova couldn’t have come at a better time,” according to Professor Edo Berger, a co-author from Harvard University. “Now that we know such energetic explosions occur in nature, NASA’s new James Webb Space Telescope will be able to see similar events so far away that we can look back in time to the deaths of the very first stars in the Universe.”
Supernova 2016aps was first detected in data from the Panoramic Survey Telescope and Rapid Response System (Pan-STARRS), a large-scale astronomical survey programme. The team also used data from the Hubble Space Telescope, the Keck and Gemini Observatories, in Hawaii, and the MDM and MMT Observatories in Arizona. Other collaborating institutions included Stockholm University, Copenhagen University, California Institute of Technology, and Space Telescope Science Institute.
The research was funded through a Royal Astronomical Society Research Fellowship, along with grants from the National Science Foundation, NASA and the Horizon 2020 European Union Framework.
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wattsupwiththat--2020-04-15--How The Green New Deal’s Renewable Energy Mining Would Harm Humans And The Environment

As this paper shows , expanding mining on the scale needed to meet the renewable energy requirements contained in the Green New Deal and other proposed renewable energy mandates would cause unimaginable harm to the environment , wildlife , and humans .
The Green New Deal ( GND ) —promoted by Sen. Bernie Sanders ( I-VT ) , Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez ( D-NY ) , and several other prominent elected officials—aims to replace all fossil fuels and nuclear energy with so-called “ renewable ” energy sources , primarily wind and solar .
The justification for this extreme policy proposal is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ dioxide ( CO2 ) emissions from oil , natural gas , and coal will cause catastrophic global warming , as well as concerns about the alleged dangers of nuclear power sources .
The scientific case that manmade global warming poses an “ existential threat ” to humanity is highly questionable , according to many scientists , and the safety record for nuclear power in this country thoroughly belies the claims against it .
However , what is beyond dispute is that eliminating fossil fuels and nuclear power would require literally millions of wind @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and several billion batteries like the half-ton power sources used in Tesla vehicles .
This , in turn , would require a massive worldwide increase in mining for lithium , cobalt , copper , iron , aluminum , and numerous other raw materials .
Current mining operations to supply materials for today ’ s comparatively small amount of renewable power technology—plus batteries for laptop computers , smartphones , and electric cars—are already causing supply difficulties and serious problems for the environment .
These mining operations are also imposing substantial harm on the men @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in battery- and renewable energy-related mines , processing plants and factories in other countries .
As this paper shows , expanding mining on the scale needed to meet the renewable energy requirements contained in the Green New Deal and other proposed renewable energy mandates would cause unimaginable harm to the environment , wildlife , and humans .
Paul Driessen is a senior policy advisor with the Committee For A Constructive Tomorrow ( CFACT ) and the Center for the Defense of Free Enterprise .
Read this as a PDF here : https : @

By Paul Driessen
As this paper shows, expanding mining on the scale needed to meet the renewable energy requirements contained in the Green New Deal and other proposed renewable energy mandates would cause unimaginable harm to the environment, wildlife, and humans.
Executive Summary
The Green New Deal (GND)—promoted by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY), and several other prominent elected officials—aims to replace all fossil fuels and nuclear energy with so-called “renewable” energy sources, primarily wind and solar.
The justification for this extreme policy proposal is based primarily on the fear that carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from oil, natural gas, and coal will cause catastrophic global warming, as well as concerns about the alleged dangers of nuclear power sources.
The scientific case that manmade global warming poses an “existential threat” to humanity is highly questionable, according to many scientists, and the safety record for nuclear power in this country thoroughly belies the claims against it.
However, what is beyond dispute is that eliminating fossil fuels and nuclear power would require literally millions of wind turbines, billions of solar panels, and several billion batteries like the half-ton power sources used in Tesla vehicles. This, in turn, would require a massive worldwide increase in mining for lithium, cobalt, copper, iron, aluminum, and numerous other raw materials.
Current mining operations to supply materials for today’s comparatively small amount of renewable power technology—plus batteries for laptop computers, smartphones, and electric cars—are already causing supply difficulties and serious problems for the environment. These mining operations are also imposing substantial harm on the men, women, and children who work in battery- and renewable energy-related mines, processing plants and factories in other countries.
As this paper shows, expanding mining on the scale needed to meet the renewable energy requirements contained in the Green New Deal and other proposed renewable energy mandates would cause unimaginable harm to the environment, wildlife, and humans.
Paul Driessen is a senior policy advisor with the Committee For A Constructive Tomorrow (CFACT) and the Center for the Defense of Free Enterprise.
Read this as a PDF here: https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/documents/publications/PBdriessenmining2Apr20.pdf
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wattsupwiththat--2020-04-15--In favor of epistemic trespassing #coronavirus

On the importance of expertise from other fields for COVD19 and climate change .
This post is motivated by a tweet from Steve McIntyre , with comment from Ken Rice : Here is the link to Annan ’ s post Dumb and Dumber , its actually quite good .
The money quote : “ All these people exhorting amateurs to “ stay in their lane ” and not muddy the waters by providing analyses and articles about the COVID-19 pandemic would have an easier job of it if it wasn ’ t for the supposed experts churning out dross on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this twitter exchange , I spotted a link to a new paper entitled ( tweeted by Oxford Philosophy ) entitled Epistemic Trespassing .
Excerpts : “ Epistemic trespassers are thinkers who have competence or expertise to make good judgments in one field , but move to another field where they lack competence—and pass judgment nevertheless .
We should doubt that trespassers are reliable judges in fields where they are outsiders.
” In other words , stay in your lane .
“ Trespassing is a significant problem in an age of expertise and punditry @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
In Plato ’ s Apology , Socrates tells us he tracked down citizens in Athens who had reputations for being skilled .
He met politicians , poets , and craftsmen and tested their mettle .
As Socrates says , he ‘ found those who had the highest reputation were nearly the most deficient ’ .
Socrates diagnosed the problem : because these men had been so successful in their particular crafts , each one ‘ thought himself very wise in most important pursuits , and this error of theirs overshadowed the wisdom @ @ @ @ @ @ @ their achievements in one domain , the successful Athenians trespassed on matters about which they were ignorant.
” “ First , trespassing is a widespread problem that crops up especially in the practice of interdisciplinary research , as opposed to what we might call ‘ single-discipline ’ research .
Second , reflecting on trespassing should lead us to have greater intellectual modesty , in the sense that we will have good reason to be far less confident we have the right answers to many important questions.
” “ Epistemic trespassing of the sort @ @ @ @ @ @ @ recognize .
Experts drift over a highly-visible boundary line and into a domain where they lack either the relevant evidence or the skills to interpret the evidence well .
But they keep talking nonetheless .
Experts on a public stage are cast in the role of the ‘ public intellectual ’ or ‘ celebrity academic ’ .
They may find trespassing all but impossible to resist .
Microphones are switched on , TV cameras zoom in , and ‘ sound bites ’ come forth , coaxed out of the commentators by journalists .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ about philosophy , Neil deGrasse Tyson ?
And what about arguments for the existence of God , Professor Dawkins ?
I don ’ t think trespassing is exclusively a problem for scholars in the limelight , however , and one of my goals here is to explain why ordinary researchers often risk trespassing , too.
” “ But first we must understand what the epistemological problem with trespassing is .
There is not only one problem .
Consider three types of problematic trespassing cases , where two different fields share a particular question @ @ @ @ @ @ @ one field lack another field ’ s evidence and skills ; • ( b ) Experts in one field lack evidence from another field but have its skills ; • ( c ) Experts in one field have evidence from another field but lack its skills .
“ I will examine three strategies to justify acts of trespassing and thereby preserve rational confidence in trespassers ’ answers to hybridized questions .
Again , we are assuming some trespassers are experts in one field but encroach on another field .
• ( D1 ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ but that field does not feature any relevant evidence or skills that bear on my view about p ; • ( D2 ) I am trespassing on another field , but my own field ’ s evidence conclusively establishes that p is true ; • ( D3 ) I am trespassing on another field , but my own field ’ s skills successfully ‘ transfer ’ to the other field.
” “ I suspect we must trespass to answer most important questions .
Perhaps this means we should never trespass alone .
Instead @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of others .
What we need , to extend the trespassing metaphor , is an ‘ easement ’ or ‘ right of way ’ for travel beyond our fields ’ boundaries .
The right of safe passage could be secured by our collaboration with cross-field experts .
Imagine your colleague is a representative source of evidence , skills , and potential criticism from another field .
Even if you don ’ t have direct knowledge of that field , if your colleague tests out your answer to a hybridized question and tells you @ @ @ @ @ @ @ your view is appar- ently more reasonable than it would have been otherwise .
Trespassers may gain reasonable beliefs by engaging in certain kinds of discussion with cross-field colleagues.
” While this paper raises some interesting issues , its main goal seems to be protecting the turf of academic subfields .
Complex issues such as COVID19 and climate change , with massive policy implications , introduce a whole host of additional issues related to epistemic trespassing .
I ’ ve written many blog posts on expertise [ link ] .
Here is a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ who label themselves as ‘ climate scientists ’ , even though their degrees might be in economics , biology , whatever , have no compunction about speaking publicly , and responding to reporters ’ queries , on climate topics well outside their expertise .
They use their status as ‘ climate scientist ’ to expound on aspects of climate science , economics , policy , whatever , that they know next to nothing about .
The flip side of this coin is the dismissal by academics of the likes of Steve McIntyre , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ statistics and data probity to the field of paleoclimate .
Moving on to COVID19 , the problems with COVID19 projections were summarized in a number of posts in the most recent CoV Discussion Thread : • Don ’ t believe the COVID models – that ’ s not what they ’ for [ link ] • On the predictability of infectious disease outbreaks [ link ] • America ’ s most influential COV model just revised its estimates downward – but not all models agree [ link ] • How can COVID models @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ] James Annan has another good blog post : Model calibration , nowcasting and operational prediction of the COVID19 pandemic “ Turns out that calibrating a simple model with observational data is much the same whether it ’ s paleoclimate or epidemics .
The maths and the methods are much the same .
In fact this one is a particularly easy one as the model is embarrassingly linear ( once you take the logarithm of the time series ) .
” “ The basic concept is to use the model to invert the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the time series of underlying infections in order to discover the model parameters such as the famous reproductive rate R. It ’ s actually rather simple and I am still bemused by the fact that none of the experts ( in the UK at least ) are doing this .
I mean what on earth are mathematical epidemiologists actually for , if not this sort of thing ?
They should have been all over this like a rash .
The exponential trend in the data is a key diagnostic of the epidemic and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with the most elementary calibration of this in their predictions that our entire policy is based on .
It ’ s absolutely nuts .
It ’ s as if someone ran a simulation with a climate model and presented the prediction without any basic check on whether it reproduced the recent warming .
You ’ d get laughed out of the room if you tried that at any conference I was attending .
By me if no-one else ( no , really , I wouldn ’ t be the only one ) .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ into COVID models at all , with regards to model calibration and nowcasting my experience in weather forecasting is even more relevant here than climate modeling .
For operational weather prediction ( say for hurricanes ) , there are several components to calibration of the forecasts .
You can calibrate the model inputs and/or the model outputs .
You can calibrate the model based on historical forecasts for previous epidemics ( compared with observations ) .
You can also calibrate the model based on recent error statistics ( in model inputs and/or outputs @ @ @ @ @ @ @ impacted by COVID provides data to be used in calibration .
It appears that the weather/climate community has much to offer in terms of COVID modeling .
Fortunately , weather and climate scientists haven ’ t been ‘ staying in their lane , ’ we ’ ve seen a number of COVID analyses from this community ( including a few at Climate Etc .
The postnormal science group ( Funtowicz , Ravetz , van der Sluijs et al . )
have written an article PostNormal Pandemics .
“ Despite the truly historic mobilization @ @ @ @ @ @ @ areas is still swamped by ignorance , especially on the sources of the virus but also on its progress and future outcomes .
The expertise employed in COVID-19 policy advice builds on speculative assumptions on the virus itself , and how far it ’ s possible to control and predict how people behave .
Known unknowns include the real prevalence of the virus in the population ; the role of asymptomatic cases in the rapid spread of the virus ; the degree to which humans develop immunity ; the dominant exposure pathways ; @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the time to deliver global availability of an effective vaccine or cure ; and the nonlinear response of individuals and collectives to the social distancing interventions in the complex system of communities interconnected across multiple scales , with many tipping points , and hysteresis loops ( implying that society may not be able to rebound to the state it was in before the coronavirus interventions took place ) .
These deep uncertainties make quantitative predictions speculative and unreliable .
Instead , following a pattern well known to PNS practitioners , predictions which purportedly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to action ” can only be obtained by mathematical models that produce crisp numbers , even though these numbers have been obtained at the cost of artificially compressing the associated uncertainty .
“ There is no number-answer to your question , ” explodes an angry medical expert to the politician trying to force a number out of him .
It would be much more effective to run our societies under the assumption that our resources should not be allocated according to a strategy of prediction and control .
More data ( even ‘ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ models can not resolve the ‘ distribution of sacrifice ’ which involves , among other things , the arbitration of dilemmas that appear at every scale .
This can not be delivered by artificial intelligence , algorithms and models alone .
We need to pursue an adaptability based on preserving diversity and flexible management .
”

Reposted from Dr. Judith Curry’s Climate Etc.
Posted on April 14, 2020 by curryja
by Judith Curry
On the importance of expertise from other fields for COVD19 and climate change.
This post is motivated by a tweet from Steve McIntyre, with comment from Ken Rice:
Here is the link to Annan’s post Dumb and Dumber, its actually quite good. The money quote:
“All these people exhorting amateurs to “stay in their lane” and not muddy the waters by providing analyses and articles about the COVID-19 pandemic would have an easier job of it if it wasn’t for the supposed experts churning out dross on an industrial scale.”
McIntyre responds:
Epistemic trespassing
Shortly after spotting this twitter exchange, I spotted a link to a new paper entitled (tweeted by Oxford Philosophy) entitled Epistemic Trespassing. Excerpts:
“Epistemic trespassers are thinkers who have competence or expertise to make good judgments in one field, but move to another field where they lack competence—and pass judgment nevertheless. We should doubt that trespassers are reliable judges in fields where they are outsiders.” In other words, stay in your lane.
“Trespassing is a significant problem in an age of expertise and punditry, but it’s not new. In Plato’s Apology, Socrates tells us he tracked down citizens in Athens who had reputations for being skilled. He met politicians, poets, and craftsmen and tested their mettle. As Socrates says, he ‘found those who had the highest reputation were nearly the most deficient’ . Socrates diagnosed the problem: because these men had been so successful in their particular crafts, each one ‘thought himself very wise in most important pursuits, and this error of theirs overshadowed the wisdom they had’ . Puffed up by their achievements in one domain, the successful Athenians trespassed on matters about which they were ignorant.”
“First, trespassing is a widespread problem that crops up especially in the practice of interdisciplinary research, as opposed to what we might call ‘single-discipline’ research. Second, reflecting on trespassing should lead us to have greater intellectual modesty, in the sense that we will have good reason to be far less confident we have the right answers to many important questions.”
“Epistemic trespassing of the sort I’ve noted is easy to recognize. Experts drift over a highly-visible boundary line and into a domain where they lack either the relevant evidence or the skills to interpret the evidence well. But they keep talking nonetheless. Experts on a public stage are cast in the role of the ‘public intellectual’ or ‘celebrity academic’. They may find trespassing all but impossible to resist. Microphones are switched on, TV cameras zoom in, and ‘sound bites’ come forth, coaxed out of the commentators by journalists. So what do you have to say about philosophy, Neil deGrasse Tyson? And what about arguments for the existence of God, Professor Dawkins? I don’t think trespassing is exclusively a problem for scholars in the limelight, however, and one of my goals here is to explain why ordinary researchers often risk trespassing, too.”
“But first we must understand what the epistemological problem with trespassing is. There is not only one problem. Consider three types of problematic trespassing cases, where two different fields share a particular question:
(a) Experts in one field lack another field’s evidence and skills; (b) Experts in one field lack evidence from another field but have its skills; (c) Experts in one field have evidence from another field but lack its skills.
“I will examine three strategies to justify acts of trespassing and thereby preserve rational confidence in trespassers’ answers to hybridized questions. Again, we are assuming some trespassers are experts in one field but encroach on another field.
(D1) I am trespassing on another field, but that field does not feature any relevant evidence or skills that bear on my view about p;
(D2) I am trespassing on another field, but my own field’s evidence conclusively establishes that p is true;
(D3) I am trespassing on another field, but my own field’s skills successfully ‘transfer’ to the other field.”
“I suspect we must trespass to answer most important questions. Perhaps this means we should never trespass alone. Instead, we must rely on the expertise of others. What we need, to extend the trespassing metaphor, is an ‘easement’ or ‘right of way’ for travel beyond our fields’ boundaries. The right of safe passage could be secured by our collaboration with cross-field experts. Imagine your colleague is a representative source of evidence, skills, and potential criticism from another field. Even if you don’t have direct knowledge of that field, if your colleague tests out your answer to a hybridized question and tells you it sounds right to her, then your view is appar- ently more reasonable than it would have been otherwise. Trespassers may gain reasonable beliefs by engaging in certain kinds of discussion with cross-field colleagues.”
While this paper raises some interesting issues, its main goal seems to be protecting the turf of academic subfields.
COVID19 and climate change
Complex issues such as COVID19 and climate change, with massive policy implications, introduce a whole host of additional issues related to epistemic trespassing. I’ve written many blog posts on expertise [link].
Here is a pet peeve of mine: many academics who label themselves as ‘climate scientists’, even though their degrees might be in economics, biology, whatever, have no compunction about speaking publicly, and responding to reporters’ queries, on climate topics well outside their expertise. They use their status as ‘climate scientist’ to expound on aspects of climate science, economics, policy, whatever, that they know next to nothing about.
The flip side of this coin is the dismissal by academics of the likes of Steve McIntyre, who has brought much needed expertise in statistics and data probity to the field of paleoclimate.
Moving on to COVID19, the problems with COVID19 projections were summarized in a number of posts in the most recent CoV Discussion Thread:
Don’t believe the COVID models – that’s not what they’ for [link]
Mathematical models to characterize early epidemic growth: A review. [link]
On the predictability of infectious disease outbreaks [link]
Dramatic reduction in COVID disaster projections [link]
America’s most influential COV model just revised its estimates downward – but not all models agree [link]
How can COVID models get it so wrong? [link]
James Annan has another good blog post: Model calibration, nowcasting and operational prediction of the COVID19 pandemic
“Turns out that calibrating a simple model with observational data is much the same whether it’s paleoclimate or epidemics. The maths and the methods are much the same. In fact this one is a particularly easy one as the model is embarrassingly linear (once you take the logarithm of the time series).”
“The basic concept is to use the model to invert the time series of reported deaths back through the time series of underlying infections in order to discover the model parameters such as the famous reproductive rate R. It’s actually rather simple and I am still bemused by the fact that none of the experts (in the UK at least) are doing this. I mean what on earth are mathematical epidemiologists actually for, if not this sort of thing? They should have been all over this like a rash. The exponential trend in the data is a key diagnostic of the epidemic and the experts didn’t even bother with the most elementary calibration of this in their predictions that our entire policy is based on. It’s absolutely nuts. It’s as if someone ran a simulation with a climate model and presented the prediction without any basic check on whether it reproduced the recent warming. You’d get laughed out of the room if you tried that at any conference I was attending. By me if no-one else (no, really, I wouldn’t be the only one).”
While I haven’t dug into COVID models at all, with regards to model calibration and nowcasting my experience in weather forecasting is even more relevant here than climate modeling. For operational weather prediction (say for hurricanes), there are several components to calibration of the forecasts. You can calibrate the model inputs and/or the model outputs. You can calibrate the model based on historical forecasts for previous epidemics (compared with observations). You can also calibrate the model based on recent error statistics (in model inputs and/or outputs). The experiences/outcomes of each country impacted by COVID provides data to be used in calibration.
It appears that the weather/climate community has much to offer in terms of COVID modeling. Fortunately, weather and climate scientists haven’t been ‘staying in their lane,’ we’ve seen a number of COVID analyses from this community (including a few at Climate Etc.
Postnormal pandemics
The postnormal science group (Funtowicz, Ravetz, van der Sluijs et al.) have written an article PostNormal Pandemics.
“Despite the truly historic mobilization of science, our knowledge in crucial areas is still swamped by ignorance, especially on the sources of the virus but also on its progress and future outcomes. The expertise employed in COVID-19 policy advice builds on speculative assumptions on the virus itself, and how far it’s possible to control and predict how people behave.
Known unknowns include the real prevalence of the virus in the population; the role of asymptomatic cases in the rapid spread of the virus; the degree to which humans develop immunity; the dominant exposure pathways; the disease’s seasonal behaviour; the time to deliver global availability of an effective vaccine or cure; and the nonlinear response of individuals and collectives to the social distancing interventions in the complex system of communities interconnected across multiple scales, with many tipping points, and hysteresis loops (implying that society may not be able to rebound to the state it was in before the coronavirus interventions took place). These deep uncertainties make quantitative predictions speculative and unreliable.
Instead, following a pattern well known to PNS practitioners, predictions which purportedly “jarred the U.S. and the U.K. to action” can only be obtained by mathematical models that produce crisp numbers, even though these numbers have been obtained at the cost of artificially compressing the associated uncertainty. “There is no number-answer to your question,” explodes an angry medical expert to the politician trying to force a number out of him.
It would be much more effective to run our societies under the assumption that our resources should not be allocated according to a strategy of prediction and control.
More data (even ‘reliable data’) and better predictive models cannot resolve the ‘distribution of sacrifice’ which involves, among other things, the arbitration of dilemmas that appear at every scale. This cannot be delivered by artificial intelligence, algorithms and models alone. We need to pursue an adaptability based on preserving diversity and flexible management.”
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wattsupwiththat--2020-04-15--How NASA is Helping the World Breathe More Easily

How NASA is Helping the World Breathe More Easily Look around .
Can you see the air ?
No ?
Luckily , many of NASA ’ s Earth-observing satellites can see what the human eye can ’ t — including potentially harmful pollutants lingering in the air we breathe .
From the vantage point of space , these satellites help us measure and track air pollution as it moves around the globe and have contributed significantly to our decades-long quest for cleaner air .
When we talk about “ air pollution , ” we ’ re referring to chemicals or @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to have negative health effects on humans .
The Clean Air Act of 1970 established legislation that requires the tracking of six of those pollutants — nitrogen dioxide ( NO2 ) , ground-level ozone , carbon monoxide , particulate matter ( microscopic specks of solid or liquid material in the air ) , sulfur dioxide , and lead .
Satellite instruments are measuring all of these except lead .
NASA has been involved in the study of air quality for decades from space and with ground sensors , creating a time series of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ impacts and causes of air pollution and to helping design solutions .
This article highlights a few of the many projects under way now and planned for the years to come .
Measured in Space , Used on Earth In analyzing spaceborne data , one thing is abundantly clear — reducing emissions from human activities can have a profound effect on air quality .
China ’ s recent large-scale response to the COVID-19 pandemic , which included quarantines and limitations on industrial activities and travel , is a particularly vivid example of this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s Aura and the European Space Agency ’ s Sentinel-5 satellites showed a significant decrease in nitrogen dioxide ( NO2 ) — a noxious gas emitted by power plants , industrial facilities and motor vehicles — over much of the country during that time .
The pandemic presents a unique use-case for spaceborne Earth observations ; however , satellite-derived air quality data have applications across a wide array of disciplines .
That ’ s where NASA ’ s Health and Air Quality applications program demonstrates its value .
The program builds invaluable partnerships @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to facilitate the use of this data in solving real world problems .
“ We funded a project led by the Environmental Protection Agency ( EPA ) to assimilate NASA Earth observations into their “ AirNow ” system , ” said program manager John Haynes .
The AirNow system is the EPA ’ s platform for distributing national , real-time air quality reports and forecasts .
The measurements primarily come from thousands of monitoring stations on the ground across the United States , Mexico , and Canada ; however , those ground monitoring @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ground monitors cover a good part of the U.S. , especially around metropolitan areas .
But there are large sections of the country that don ’ t have monitoring stations , ” said Haynes .
“ By introducing satellite aerosol optical depth observations from the MODIS instrument , we can measure those areas too , which allows us to form a more accurate image of how air pollution — and specifically fine particulate matter — is distributed across the country and how it changes over time.
” By incorporating data from the Ozone @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Dutch-Finnish contribution to NASA ’ s Aura satellite mission , the EPA and NASA were also able to identify a significant drop in NO2 over the last 15 years in the United States — evidence that regulations put into place by the Clean Air Act 50 years ago — vehicle gas mileage regulations , a shift to cleaner fuels , and so on — are , indeed , working .
“ We ’ ve been able to show that since 2004 , NO2 levels have dropped as much as 50 % depending on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ about .
In fact , the air in the United States is now the cleanest it has been in the modern industrial era , ” Haynes said .
With the abundance of data coming in — there are dozens of Earth-observing satellites currently on orbit — one of the biggest challenges is connecting stakeholders with the right “ tools ” or datasets for what they ’ re trying to accomplish , and in some cases , teaching them how incorporate this type of data into their planning .
“ To address this issue @ @ @ @ @ @ @ where we help users navigate all of these resources , from someone who has never really used satellite data before to more advanced stakeholders looking to make better decisions and inform the public on issues of air quality , ” says Tracey Holloway , leader of the NASA-funded Health and Air Quality Applied Sciences Team ( HAQAST ) , a group of air quality and public health scientists from government offices and universities across the country .
Wildfires in California , for example , have caused air quality concerns in recent years .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ look at emissions and develop new methods for using existing data from the VIIRS and MODIS instruments to support the state of California in its understanding and quantification of emissions .
HAQAST also helped to get data from newer satellites like GOES-16 into the state ’ s hands .
According to the Global Burden of Disease report , air pollution is the leading environmental cause of mortality — a statistic of which many in the public health sector are well aware .
And the availability of satellite observations is changing the dialogue around @ @ @ @ @ @ @ community , we have observed the growing trend of research collaborations that bridge expertise across environmental health disciplines .
As we continue to train the global health workforce , we must identify the skillsets that can prepare the workforce to manage the emerging risks of the future .
For example , one skillset is the knowledge and use of innovative data sources – including satellite data – whether they apply data for research purposes or interpret findings for educational outreach activities , ” said Helena Chapman , associate program manager of NASA Health @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , “ The abundance of satellite data right now is amazing .
Just in the past 10 years , it ’ s been remarkable how many agencies , nonprofits , cities and states have gone from not even knowing satellites could detect air pollution to actively using the data in their day-to-day operations.
” Right now , our satellites can measure a number of chemicals in the air over the United States and globally on a daily basis .
But several missions scheduled to launch in the next few years will be able @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the Tropospheric Emissions : Monitoring Pollution ( TEMPO ) mission is designed to measure several different pollutants — including NO2 and ozone — over the United States during every daylight hour .
TEMPO will give scientists the ability to see how pollution sources and concentrations change throughout the course of a day .
Part of an international constellation of like satellites that includes South Korea ’ s Geostationary Environment Monitoring Spectrometer ( GEMS ) , and the European Space Agency ’ s Sentinel-4 , TEMPO is scheduled to launch in 2022 .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ ) mission , also scheduled to launch in the early 2020s , will improve our understanding of particulate matter — those tiny , microscopic particles lingering in the air — with particular focus on large metropolitan areas .
Data like this will help the health community better understand the connection between aerosol pollutants and health problems including adverse birth outcomes and cardiovascular diseases .
“ MAIA will allow us to study these aerosols in detail , tell us how big they are and how many of them are in that very small category @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , ” said Barry Lefer , program scientist of NASA ’ s Tropospheric Composition program .
“ We ’ ll also be able to better understand what the particles are made of which will lead us to where they came from ( like auto exhaust for example ) .
” Even further in the future , the possibilities are many .
“ I ’ d love to see a future where real-time Earth observation data is seamlessly and continuously available to everyone — from orbit to the palm of your hand , ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ anyone to make fast decisions regarding air quality and their health .
”

From NASA
April 14, 2020
How NASA is Helping the World Breathe More Easily
Look around. Can you see the air? No?
Luckily, many of NASA’s Earth-observing satellites can see what the human eye can’t — including potentially harmful pollutants lingering in the air we breathe. From the vantage point of space, these satellites help us measure and track air pollution as it moves around the globe and have contributed significantly to our decades-long quest for cleaner air.
When we talk about “air pollution,” we’re referring to chemicals or particles in the atmosphere that are known to have negative health effects on humans. The Clean Air Act of 1970 established legislation that requires the tracking of six of those pollutants — nitrogen dioxide (NO2), ground-level ozone, carbon monoxide, particulate matter (microscopic specks of solid or liquid material in the air), sulfur dioxide, and lead. Satellite instruments are measuring all of these except lead.
NASA has been involved in the study of air quality for decades from space and with ground sensors, creating a time series of global data records critical to understanding the impacts and causes of air pollution and to helping design solutions. This article highlights a few of the many projects under way now and planned for the years to come.
Air pollution can appear as a gray or orange haze enveloping a city. What the naked eye can’t see are the hundreds of chemical reactions taking place to produce that pollution. NASA science can reveal a more complete picture of atmospheric chemistry. Credits: NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center/Scientific Visualization Studio Download This Video in HD from NASA Goddard’s Scientific Visualization Studio
Measured in Space, Used on Earth
In analyzing spaceborne data, one thing is abundantly clear — reducing emissions from human activities can have a profound effect on air quality.
China’s recent large-scale response to the COVID-19 pandemic, which included quarantines and limitations on industrial activities and travel, is a particularly vivid example of this. Data from instruments on NASA’s Aura and the European Space Agency’s Sentinel-5 satellites showed a significant decrease in nitrogen dioxide (NO2) — a noxious gas emitted by power plants, industrial facilities and motor vehicles — over much of the country during that time.
The pandemic presents a unique use-case for spaceborne Earth observations; however, satellite-derived air quality data have applications across a wide array of disciplines. That’s where NASA’s Health and Air Quality applications program demonstrates its value. The program builds invaluable partnerships with other agencies, industry and nonprofits to facilitate the use of this data in solving real world problems.
“We funded a project led by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to assimilate NASA Earth observations into their “AirNow” system,” said program manager John Haynes.
The AirNow system is the EPA’s platform for distributing national, real-time air quality reports and forecasts. The measurements primarily come from thousands of monitoring stations on the ground across the United States, Mexico, and Canada; however, those ground monitoring stations are not all-encompassing.
“The ground monitors cover a good part of the U.S., especially around metropolitan areas. But there are large sections of the country that don’t have monitoring stations,” said Haynes. “By introducing satellite aerosol optical depth observations from the MODIS instrument, we can measure those areas too, which allows us to form a more accurate image of how air pollution — and specifically fine particulate matter — is distributed across the country and how it changes over time.”
By incorporating data from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), a Dutch-Finnish contribution to NASA’s Aura satellite mission, the EPA and NASA were also able to identify a significant drop in NO2 over the last 15 years in the United States — evidence that regulations put into place by the Clean Air Act 50 years ago — vehicle gas mileage regulations, a shift to cleaner fuels, and so on — are, indeed, working.
“We’ve been able to show that since 2004, NO2 levels have dropped as much as 50% depending on what metropolitan area we’re talking about. In fact, the air in the United States is now the cleanest it has been in the modern industrial era,” Haynes said.
While ozone in the stratosphere is critical to maintaining life on Earth, surface ozone, shown here, is a toxic gas to most plant and animal species. NASA merges satellite data with models to provide a snapshot of chemistry throughout the atmosphere at any given time and help predict air quality worldwide. Credits: NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center/Scientific Visualization Studio
Connecting the (data) dots
With the abundance of data coming in — there are dozens of Earth-observing satellites currently on orbit — one of the biggest challenges is connecting stakeholders with the right “tools” or datasets for what they’re trying to accomplish, and in some cases, teaching them how incorporate this type of data into their planning.
“To address this issue, our team has developed a website where we help users navigate all of these resources, from someone who has never really used satellite data before to more advanced stakeholders looking to make better decisions and inform the public on issues of air quality,” says Tracey Holloway, leader of the NASA-funded Health and Air Quality Applied Sciences Team (HAQAST), a group of air quality and public health scientists from government offices and universities across the country.
Wildfires in California, for example, have caused air quality concerns in recent years. A HAQAST tiger team was able to look at emissions and develop new methods for using existing data from the VIIRS and MODIS instruments to support the state of California in its understanding and quantification of emissions. HAQAST also helped to get data from newer satellites like GOES-16 into the state’s hands.
According to the Global Burden of Disease report, air pollution is the leading environmental cause of mortality — a statistic of which many in the public health sector are well aware. And the availability of satellite observations is changing the dialogue around it.
“Just within the health community, we have observed the growing trend of research collaborations that bridge expertise across environmental health disciplines. As we continue to train the global health workforce, we must identify the skillsets that can prepare the workforce to manage the emerging risks of the future. For example, one skillset is the knowledge and use of innovative data sources – including satellite data – whether they apply data for research purposes or interpret findings for educational outreach activities,” said Helena Chapman, associate program manager of NASA Health and Air Quality applications.
Holloway adds, “The abundance of satellite data right now is amazing. Just in the past 10 years, it’s been remarkable how many agencies, nonprofits, cities and states have gone from not even knowing satellites could detect air pollution to actively using the data in their day-to-day operations.”
Looking Ahead
Right now, our satellites can measure a number of chemicals in the air over the United States and globally on a daily basis. But several missions scheduled to launch in the next few years will be able to do even better.
For example, the Tropospheric Emissions: Monitoring Pollution (TEMPO) mission is designed to measure several different pollutants — including NO2 and ozone — over the United States during every daylight hour. TEMPO will give scientists the ability to see how pollution sources and concentrations change throughout the course of a day. Part of an international constellation of like satellites that includes South Korea’s Geostationary Environment Monitoring Spectrometer (GEMS), and the European Space Agency’s Sentinel-4, TEMPO is scheduled to launch in 2022.
The Multi-Angle Imager for Aerosols (MAIA) mission, also scheduled to launch in the early 2020s, will improve our understanding of particulate matter — those tiny, microscopic particles lingering in the air — with particular focus on large metropolitan areas. Data like this will help the health community better understand the connection between aerosol pollutants and health problems including adverse birth outcomes and cardiovascular diseases.
“MAIA will allow us to study these aerosols in detail, tell us how big they are and how many of them are in that very small category that is most harmful to human health,” said Barry Lefer, program scientist of NASA’s Tropospheric Composition program. “We’ll also be able to better understand what the particles are made of which will lead us to where they came from (like auto exhaust for example).”
Even further in the future, the possibilities are many.
“I’d love to see a future where real-time Earth observation data is seamlessly and continuously available to everyone — from orbit to the palm of your hand,” said Haynes. “It would allow anyone to make fast decisions regarding air quality and their health.”
By Esprit Smith
NASA’s Earth Science News Team Last Updated: April 14, 2020 Editor: Ellen Gray
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wattsupwiththat--2020-04-14--Precipitation will be essential for plants to counteract global warming

New study first to demonstrate that the balance between soil water and energy input into an ecosystem determines whether its plant growth is limited by precipitation or by temperature New York , NY–April 13 , 2020–Photosynthesis on Earth is regulated by plant phenology–how plant life cycles interact with the climate–and environmental conditions , both of which changed substantially in recent decades .
Unlike early-season photosynthesis which is mostly driven by warming temperatures or the onset of the wet season , late-season photosynthesis can be limited by several factors , such as plant life cycle and radiation , and its underlying @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on land contributes greatly to annual total carbon fixation and is sensitive to climate .
Scientists generally agree that temperature limitation on late-season photosynthesis will alleviate with warming but the effects of water availability are highly uncertain .
A new Columbia Engineering study shows that increased water stress–higher frequency of drought due to higher temperatures , is going to constrain the phenological cycle : in effect , by shutting down photosynthesis , it will generate a lower carbon uptake at the end of the season , thus contributing to increased global warming .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ and in-situ observations to analyze the temperature and water limitations on the end of photosynthesis date .
They found that water limitation on late-season photosynthesis is regulated by both soil water and mean annual temperature .
Earth system models have predicted warming and soil drying over most of the land surface by 2100 , and so it is clear that water availability will become increasingly important as a limiting factor for late-season photosynthesis and carbon uptake .
“ We wanted to understand what the driving factor of plant photosynthesis is during the late @ @ @ @ @ @ @ change in the future , ” says Pierre Gentine , associate professor of earth and environmental engineering and affiliated with the Earth Institute , who led the study published today in Proceedings of National Academy of Sciences .
“ Our study is a very good example of how advances in remote sensing technologies can be used to solve long-lasting questions like this one.
” The team used both machine learning and remote sensing to generate a new dataset for mapping global plant photosynthesis .
They found a contrasting spatial pattern of temperature and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the growing season .
The threshold separating these was determined by the balance between energy availability and soil water supply .
Precipitation and temperature had important yet opposite impacts on the end of the growing season photosynthesis for ecosystems at different locations : if plant photosynthesis in some areas is limited by precipitation ( positive relationship with precipitation ) , temperature is likely to have a negative effect , and vice versa .
“ We are the first to show that the balance between soil water and energy input into the ecosystem @ @ @ @ @ @ @ precipitation or by temperature , ” says the study ’ s lead author Yao Zhang , a former postdoc research scientist with Gentine and now a postdoc scholar at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory .
“ As temperature limitation diminishes , more soil water is needed to support increased vegetation activity , especially during the late growing season .
CMIP5 models project future warming and drying especially during late season , both of which should further expand the regions with limited water , causing large variations and potential decreases in photosynthesis.
” This study @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Columbia ’ s Earth Institute , Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory , and NASA Jet proportion laboratory .
The researchers are now using their dataset to better understand the lagged effect of precipitation and how to get early warning signals for drought .
The study is titled : “ Large and projected strengthening moisture limitation on end-of-season photosynthesis.
” aDepartment of Earth and Environmental Engineering , Columbia Engineering bClimate and Ecosystem Sciences Division , Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory cCalifornia Institute of Technology , Jet Propulsion Laboratory dLamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University eEarth Institute @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by NASA Advanced Information Systems Technology ( AIST ) # NASA NNH16ZDA001N-AIST , NASA ROSES Terrestrial hydrology # NNH17ZDA00IN-THP and NOAA MAPP # NA17OAR4310127 .
The authors declare no financial or other conflicts of interest .

New study first to demonstrate that the balance between soil water and energy input into an ecosystem determines whether its plant growth is limited by precipitation or by temperature
Columbia University School of Engineering and Applied ScienceShare Print E-Mail
A new Columbia Engineering study shows that increased water stress–higher frequency of drought due to higher temperatures, is going to constrain the phenological cycle: in effect, by shutting down photosynthesis, it will generate a lower carbon uptake at the end of the season, thus contributing to increased global warming.
Credit shallyvenugopal/Pixabay
New York, NY–April 13, 2020–Photosynthesis on Earth is regulated by plant phenology–how plant life cycles interact with the climate–and environmental conditions, both of which changed substantially in recent decades. Unlike early-season photosynthesis which is mostly driven by warming temperatures or the onset of the wet season, late-season photosynthesis can be limited by several factors, such as plant life cycle and radiation, and its underlying mechanisms are less understood. Late-season photosynthesis on land contributes greatly to annual total carbon fixation and is sensitive to climate. Scientists generally agree that temperature limitation on late-season photosynthesis will alleviate with warming but the effects of water availability are highly uncertain.
A new Columbia Engineering study shows that increased water stress–higher frequency of drought due to higher temperatures, is going to constrain the phenological cycle: in effect, by shutting down photosynthesis, it will generate a lower carbon uptake at the end of the season, thus contributing to increased global warming. The researchers used both remote sensing data and in-situ observations to analyze the temperature and water limitations on the end of photosynthesis date. They found that water limitation on late-season photosynthesis is regulated by both soil water and mean annual temperature. Earth system models have predicted warming and soil drying over most of the land surface by 2100, and so it is clear that water availability will become increasingly important as a limiting factor for late-season photosynthesis and carbon uptake.
“We wanted to understand what the driving factor of plant photosynthesis is during the late growing season, and how it will change in the future,” says Pierre Gentine, associate professor of earth and environmental engineering and affiliated with the Earth Institute, who led the study published today in Proceedings of National Academy of Sciences. “Our study is a very good example of how advances in remote sensing technologies can be used to solve long-lasting questions like this one.”
The team used both machine learning and remote sensing to generate a new dataset for mapping global plant photosynthesis. They found a contrasting spatial pattern of temperature and water limitations on photosynthesis at the end of the growing season. The threshold separating these was determined by the balance between energy availability and soil water supply. Precipitation and temperature had important yet opposite impacts on the end of the growing season photosynthesis for ecosystems at different locations: if plant photosynthesis in some areas is limited by precipitation (positive relationship with precipitation), temperature is likely to have a negative effect, and vice versa.
“We are the first to show that the balance between soil water and energy input into the ecosystem determines whether the system is limited by precipitation or by temperature,” says the study’s lead author Yao Zhang, a former postdoc research scientist with Gentine and now a postdoc scholar at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. “As temperature limitation diminishes, more soil water is needed to support increased vegetation activity, especially during the late growing season. CMIP5 models project future warming and drying especially during late season, both of which should further expand the regions with limited water, causing large variations and potential decreases in photosynthesis.”
###
This study was a collaboration of Columbia Engineering, Columbia’s Earth Institute, Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory, and NASA Jet proportion laboratory. The researchers are now using their dataset to better understand the lagged effect of precipitation and how to get early warning signals for drought.
About the Study
The study is titled: “Large and projected strengthening moisture limitation on end-of-season photosynthesis.”
Authors are: Yao Zhanga,b,*, Nicholas Parazooc, A. Park Williamsd, Sha Zhoua,d,e, Pierre Gentinea,e,*
aDepartment of Earth and Environmental Engineering, Columbia Engineering
bClimate and Ecosystem Sciences Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
cCalifornia Institute of Technology, Jet Propulsion Laboratory
dLamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University
eEarth Institute, Columbia University
The study was supported by NASA Advanced Information Systems Technology (AIST) #NASA NNH16ZDA001N-AIST, NASA ROSES Terrestrial hydrology #NNH17ZDA00IN-THP and NOAA MAPP #NA17OAR4310127.
The authors declare no financial or other conflicts of interest.
LINKS:
Paper: http://www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.1914436117
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1914436117
http://engineering.columbia.edu/
https://www.pnas.org/
https://engineering.columbia.edu/faculty/pierre-gentine
https://eee.columbia.edu/
http://ei.columbia.edu/
From EurekAlert!
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wattsupwiththat--2020-04-14--Japan minister: Paris accord under threat if coronavirus trumps climate change

It is looking increasingly likely the fake emergency Paris Agreement will be finished off by the need to address a @ @ @ @ @ Reuters ) – Japanese Environment Minister Shinjiro Koizumi warned on Monday that the Paris climate @ @ @ @ @ steps to fight global warming were put on the backburner to facilitate the economic recovery @ @ @ @ @ Many economists and policymakers are forecasting a steep global recession this year as countries are @ @ @ @ @ the spread of the coronavirus , curtailing business activity in a major blow to jobs @ @ @ @ @ would virtually mean the death of the Paris accord if we gave priority unconditionally to @ @ @ @ @ the environment , ” Koizumi told Reuters in an interview .
“ No one at @ @ @ @ @ the economy is important .
We just would like to behave in a way that @ @ @ @ @ be left behind , ” said Koizumi .

Guest essay by Eric Worrall
It is looking increasingly likely the fake emergency Paris Agreement will be finished off by the need to address a real problem.
Japan minister: Paris accord under threat if coronavirus trumps climate change
Kiyoshi Takenaka, Ritsuko Shimizu
TOKYO (Reuters) – Japanese Environment Minister Shinjiro Koizumi warned on Monday that the Paris climate accord could face death if steps to fight global warming were put on the backburner to facilitate the economic recovery from the coronavirus pandemic.
Many economists and policymakers are forecasting a steep global recession this year as countries are forced into lockdowns to contain the spread of the coronavirus, curtailing business activity in a major blow to jobs and incomes.
“It would virtually mean the death of the Paris accord if we gave priority unconditionally to economic recovery, while neglecting the environment,” Koizumi told Reuters in an interview.
…
“No one at the environment ministry disagrees that the economy is important. We just would like to behave in a way that ensures the environment will never be left behind,” said Koizumi.
…


wattsupwiththat--2020-04-13--#coronavirus The Chinese-virus lockdowns that have done their job

In Italy and Spain , two of Europe ’ s hardest-hit nations , the compound daily growth rates in cumulative cases of Chinese-virus infection have fallen to 2.8 % and 3.4 % respectively .
The lockdowns in these two countries are , for the first time , being eased .
Fig .
1 .
Mean compound daily growth rates in confirmed cases of COVID-19 infection for the world excluding China ( red ) and for several individual nations averaged over the successive seven-day periods ending on all dates from March 28 to April 12 , 2020 .
A link to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ end of this posting .
Fig .
2 .
Mean compound daily growth rates in reported COVID-19 deaths for the world excluding China ( red ) and for several individual nations averaged over the successive seven-day periods ending on all dates from April 4 to April 12 , 2020 .
The United States ( 7.5 % daily growth ) and the United Kingdom ( 8.4 % ) still have some way to go before it is prudent for them to end lockdowns .
South Korea and Sweden got away without lockdowns .
South @ @ @ @ @ @ @ very early , very vigorous and very thorough campaign of testing , isolating all carriers and following up and testing all their contacts , banning large gatherings and encouraging people to keep their distance from one another and to wear masks and , if possible , eye protection in public .
That is the gold standard .
Do that and there is no need for a lockdown .
South Korea ’ s growth rate in cumulative cases is now down to just 0.4 % per day .
Sweden , having failed to act @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Korean , nevertheless decided not to lock the country down completely , though some restrictions were imposed .
Its daily growth rate in cumulative cases is 6.3 % .
Two further factors are worth bearing in mind .
First , Sweden has a low population density .
There are two prime determinants of the rate at which a new pathogen will spread during the early stages of a pandemic .
The first is its infectivity : how readily it is transmitted between people in close proximity to one another .
The second is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will be much lower where population density is lower .
Central Stockholm , for instance , has a population density about one-fifth that of central London .
It could get away without a lockdown where London simply could not .
Stephen Mosher has supplied some interesting figures showing that both in South Korea and in Sweden the usage of public transport has fallen by some 60 % .
Once the people have become educated in the need to take precautions for themselves , many of them will have the common sense to do @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lockdown in place .
Contrast that sensible behavior with the UK , where as recently as March 13 , the day before Mr Trump announced a state of emergency in the United States , the last day of the four-day Cheltenham Racing Festival went ahead just as usual , with huge crowds attending .
That was silly .
And it was not until almost two weeks after Mr Trump that Mr Johnson finally realized that , unlike Sweden , Britain was too densely-packed into huge urban centers to allow him to get away @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ herd-immunity ” merchants at Oxford University and leaving it far , far too late , Mr Johnson guaranteed that Britain would have a worse experience with the pandemic than any other country in Europe .
Eventually , however , the hard-headed “ Save the hospitals from utter collapse ” team at Imperial College , London , prevailed and the lockdown happened .
At least it was just in time to prevent the total collapse of the health service : but , as things stand today , all surgical interventions other than Chinese-virus @ @ @ @ @ @ @ many weeks , and will continue to be canceled until further notice .
Losses of life from these cancelations are not included in the death figures , and Britain is bending the numbers still further by not counting deaths at home or deaths in nursing-homes in the daily death counts .
By now , in Italy and Spain the populations are sufficiently well educated that their governments consider that a gradual dismantling of the lockdowns is now possible .
On the data , then , the first lesson the world needs to learn @ @ @ @ @ @ @ determined action is taken to test , isolate and contact-trace the more likely it is that no lockdown will be needed ; that the chief reason for lockdowns is to ensure that the hospital system is not overrun ; and that if for that reason a lockdown is needed it should be introduced as soon as possible .
Later lockdowns are longer and more costly lockdowns , as Britain is learning the hard way .
Meanwhile the climate Communists , desperate to try to regain the world ’ s attention , are saying @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ deniers ” the value of believing the “ experts ” .
Well , it has done no such thing , for the “ experts ” are no more agreed among themselves about how to deal with this pandemic than they are about whether capitalism should be destroyed so as to “ Save The Planet ” from mildly warmer worldwide weather .
However , lockdowns and the consequent decline in economic activity do provide us with a very interesting test of whether CO concentration will detectably fall and whether , even if it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ decades will slow .
Watch this space : the earliest indications are that the climate Communists are in for something of a shock .

By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley
In Italy and Spain, two of Europe’s hardest-hit nations, the compound daily growth rates in cumulative cases of Chinese-virus infection have fallen to 2.8% and 3.4% respectively. The lockdowns in these two countries are, for the first time, being eased.
Fig. 1. Mean compound daily growth rates in confirmed cases of COVID-19 infection for the world excluding China (red) and for several individual nations averaged over the successive seven-day periods ending on all dates from March 28 to April 12, 2020. A link to the high-definition PowerPoint slides is at the end of this posting.
Fig. 2. Mean compound daily growth rates in reported COVID-19 deaths for the world excluding China (red) and for several individual nations averaged over the successive seven-day periods ending on all dates from April 4 to April 12, 2020.
The United States (7.5% daily growth) and the United Kingdom (8.4%) still have some way to go before it is prudent for them to end lockdowns.
South Korea and Sweden got away without lockdowns. South Korea had contained the pandemic with a very early, very vigorous and very thorough campaign of testing, isolating all carriers and following up and testing all their contacts, banning large gatherings and encouraging people to keep their distance from one another and to wear masks and, if possible, eye protection in public. That is the gold standard. Do that and there is no need for a lockdown. South Korea’s growth rate in cumulative cases is now down to just 0.4% per day.
Sweden, having failed to act as fast or as thoroughly as South Korean, nevertheless decided not to lock the country down completely, though some restrictions were imposed. Its daily growth rate in cumulative cases is 6.3%.
Two further factors are worth bearing in mind. First, Sweden has a low population density. There are two prime determinants of the rate at which a new pathogen will spread during the early stages of a pandemic. The first is its infectivity: how readily it is transmitted between people in close proximity to one another. The second is the mean person-to-person contact rate. This will be much lower where population density is lower.
Central Stockholm, for instance, has a population density about one-fifth that of central London. It could get away without a lockdown where London simply could not.
Stephen Mosher has supplied some interesting figures showing that both in South Korea and in Sweden the usage of public transport has fallen by some 60%. Once the people have become educated in the need to take precautions for themselves, many of them will have the common sense to do so, even if there is no lockdown in place.
Contrast that sensible behavior with the UK, where as recently as March 13, the day before Mr Trump announced a state of emergency in the United States, the last day of the four-day Cheltenham Racing Festival went ahead just as usual, with huge crowds attending. That was silly.
And it was not until almost two weeks after Mr Trump that Mr Johnson finally realized that, unlike Sweden, Britain was too densely-packed into huge urban centers to allow him to get away without a lockdown. By heeding the “herd-immunity” merchants at Oxford University and leaving it far, far too late, Mr Johnson guaranteed that Britain would have a worse experience with the pandemic than any other country in Europe.
Eventually, however, the hard-headed “Save the hospitals from utter collapse” team at Imperial College, London, prevailed and the lockdown happened. At least it was just in time to prevent the total collapse of the health service: but, as things stand today, all surgical interventions other than Chinese-virus cases and emergencies have been canceled for many weeks, and will continue to be canceled until further notice. Losses of life from these cancelations are not included in the death figures, and Britain is bending the numbers still further by not counting deaths at home or deaths in nursing-homes in the daily death counts.
By now, in Italy and Spain the populations are sufficiently well educated that their governments consider that a gradual dismantling of the lockdowns is now possible.
On the data, then, the first lesson the world needs to learn from this pandemic is that the sooner determined action is taken to test, isolate and contact-trace the more likely it is that no lockdown will be needed; that the chief reason for lockdowns is to ensure that the hospital system is not overrun; and that if for that reason a lockdown is needed it should be introduced as soon as possible. Later lockdowns are longer and more costly lockdowns, as Britain is learning the hard way.
Meanwhile the climate Communists, desperate to try to regain the world’s attention, are saying that the Chinese-virus pandemic has taught climate “deniers” the value of believing the “experts”. Well, it has done no such thing, for the “experts” are no more agreed among themselves about how to deal with this pandemic than they are about whether capitalism should be destroyed so as to “Save The Planet” from mildly warmer worldwide weather.
However, lockdowns and the consequent decline in economic activity do provide us with a very interesting test of whether CO 2 concentration will detectably fall and whether, even if it does, the gentle warming of recent decades will slow. Watch this space: the earliest indications are that the climate Communists are in for something of a shock.
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wattsupwiththat--2020-04-13--Climate Activists Pressuring Tropicana to Switch to Hemp Based Juice Containers

Climate columnist Tricia Clarkson thinks eco-warriors stuck at home because of the Coronavirus lockdown can still help save the world by convincing Tropicana to switch to hemp based juice containers .
Stuck at home ?
Now is the time to become a climate-change activist Climate columnist Tricia Clarkson says we may have more time on our hands to start making change Staying at home until the Coronavirus is over , allows us more time to be a climate change activist .
Tropicana : A friend was picking up groceries for me so I told her to avoid buying anything that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ couldn ’ t find Tropicana grapefruit juice in the cardboard carton I usually bought it in so she brought it home in a plastic bottle instead .
When I asked her why , she said that Tropicana stopped producing their juice in cardboard cartons and was using plastic instead .
I couldn ’ t believe they would go backwards knowing how harmful plastic is to the environment .
1-800-237-7799 was on the back of the plastic bottle so I called it .
I suggested that Tropicana use hemp containers instead which is just @ @ @ @ @ @ @ biodegradable .
My suggestion has been registered and my call took five minutes .

Guest essay by Eric Worrall
Climate columnist Tricia Clarkson thinks eco-warriors stuck at home because of the Coronavirus lockdown can still help save the world by convincing Tropicana to switch to hemp based juice containers.
Stuck at home? Now is the time to become a climate-change activist
Climate columnist Tricia Clarkson says we may have more time on our hands to start making change
OPINION Apr 12, 2020 by Tricia Clarkson
…
Staying at home until the Coronavirus is over, allows us more time to be a climate change activist.
…
Tropicana: A friend was picking up groceries for me so I told her to avoid buying anything that was in plastic. However, she couldn’t find Tropicana grapefruit juice in the cardboard carton I usually bought it in so she brought it home in a plastic bottle instead. When I asked her why, she said that Tropicana stopped producing their juice in cardboard cartons and was using plastic instead. I couldn’t believe they would go backwards knowing how harmful plastic is to the environment. 1-800-237-7799 was on the back of the plastic bottle so I called it.
…
I suggested that Tropicana use hemp containers instead which is just as strong as plastic and is completely biodegradable. My suggestion has been registered and my call took five minutes.
…