wattsupwiththat--2020-11-16--Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #431

Brought to You by SEPP ( The Science and Environmental Policy Project The Week That Was : 2020-11-14 ( November 14 , 2020 ) Brought to You by SEPP ( www.SEPP.org The Science and Environmental Policy Project Quote of the Week : “ The care of human life and happiness , and not their destruction , is the first and only legitimate object of good government.
” —Thomas Jefferson ( 1809 ) Number of the Week : 86 to 238 % Out of Date : For the past two weeks TWTW has described work by W. A. van Wijngaarden and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , on the thermal radiation of the five most abundant greenhouse gases .
The most abundant greenhouse gas , water vapor , and the second most abundant , carbon dioxide , are extremely saturated .
This means that with the possible exception of polar regions , it would take major increases in the concentrations of these gases in the atmosphere to have a significant impact on global temperatures .
For carbon dioxide to have a significant impact on temperatures , it would require burning of more fossil fuels than are known to exist @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are backed by the temperature trend findings of John Christy and Roy Spencer .
The atmosphere of the globe is warming very modestly , not significantly .
Further , the atmospheric “ hot spot ” above the tropics suggested by the climate models is not to be found .
Thus , increasing greenhouse effect is not to be feared .
The global climate models that produce results of significant warming are out of date .
Yet , US modelers ignore the physical evidence of what is occurring in the atmosphere , thereby ignoring @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in other countries may have similar obligations , which are ignored as well .
Consequently , all such models are out of date .
Similarly , we have studies of agriculture which show the authors do not understand recent changes in the industry .
For example , the 2018 National Climate Assessment stated that the US Midwest would become too hot for corn ( maize ) and soybeans and that farming will move north into Canada .
Yet , over the past decade the biggest US competitor in the international market for corn @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is tropical Brazil .
Technically , the assessment was supported by the US Department of Agriculture .
Surely , that Department should know the biggest competitors to the US in important agriculture markets !
Last week the Carl R. Woese Institute for Genomic Biology , University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign , released a news report featuring a study performed under ARPA-E , The Advanced Research Projects Agency – Energy .
The report draws into question whether or not the entities involved understand modern agriculture .
The study focused on C4 crops which probably @ @ @ @ @ @ @ when the atmosphere was becoming low in carbon dioxide .
In addition to corn , C4 crops include millet , sorghum , and sugarcane and C4 plants include about 50 % of grass species .
C4 plants have a different form of photosynthesis than C3 plants , which evolved previously .
C4 plants use carbon dioxide and water more efficiently than C3 plants ( wheat , soybeans , rice , virtually all trees ) .
In nature , C4 are typically found in warm- to high-temperature areas , particularly where water is scarce @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Institute review did not consider the abundant research showing that increasing CO2 allows plants to better adapt to stress , be it water , temperature , salt , etc .
C3 plants become more drought resistant , reducing the natural advantage of C4 plants .
More importantly , the study did not consider advances in modern agriculture , where hybrids and cultivars ( a plant produced by selective breeding for cultivation ) can be selected or produced for particular local conditions .
As a result , the fear of warming erasing entire @ @ @ @ @ @ @ crops can be tailored to such changes .
However , the fear of cooling , freezing or cold preventing ripening , which is real , still remains .
Further , Craig Idso of CO2 Science provided links to studies demonstrating that increases in CO2 benefit corn production .
Apparently , the research under the ARPA-E grant did not consider investigating the benefits of adding CO2 .
As with climate studies that fail to recognize recent research of what is occurring in the atmosphere , agriculture studies that fail to recognize the modern agricultural @ @ @ @ @ @ @ links under Defending the Orthodoxy , Review of Recent Scientific Articles by CO2 Science ( tomato seedlings ) , https : //co2science.org/subject/a/agriculturemaize.php and http : //www.co2science.org/data/plant_growth/dry/z/zeam.php Ignorance of History : In “ The Weaponization of Weather in the Phony Climate War , ” Joe Bastardi of WeatherBELL Analytics states that a problem of many alarming papers is that their data does not go back more than 50 years .
This ignorance of history was demonstrated by a paper in Nature and a news release by the Okinawa Institute of Science and Technology ( @ @ @ @ @ @ @ claimed warming oceans means hurricanes weaken more slowly and inflict more destruction farther inland .
The study period was the last 50 years .
A quick look at the U.S. Hurricane Strikes by Decade from 1851 to 2004 posted by the National Hurricane Center shows possibly the three worst decades for hurricanes in recorded history .
A ranking of the major storms ( Cat 3 or above ) reveals 1941 to 1950 with 10 , 1931 to 1940 with 8 ; 1951-1960 with 8 .
Unfortunately , the decadal classification of these data @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not contradict the study with one easily available table .
However , both Kenneth Richard and Paul Homewood produced information that the conclusions of the paper are not correct .
Most compelling is a graph of Global Tropical Cyclone Landfalls at Hurricane strength 1970 to 2019 presented in an article by Roger Pielke and Ryan Maue in Forbes in January .
This clearly indicates there has been no increase in major hurricanes hitting the US .
Consequently , the evidence indicates that the conclusions of the study are wrong .
See links under @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Changing Weather , and https : //www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastdec.shtml Point of No Return : Even more outlandish , Nature published a paper claiming that : “ An earth system model shows self-sustained melting of permafrost even if all man-made GHG emissions stop in 2020.
” Thus , according to the paper , even if humanity stopped CO2 emissions immediately , the temperatures of the Earth will increase out of control .
The fear of melting permafrost is driven by the fear of atmospheric methane increasing , intensifying the greenhouse effect .
However , there @ @ @ @ @ @ @ far-fetched .
One , as shown in numerous studies , increasing permafrost melting is increasing plant growth , particularly in root mass .
Thus , melting of permafrost is not releasing methane because plants are using it as fertilizer .
Two , methane has a short lifetime in the atmosphere , because it is rapidly oxidized into CO2 and H2O .
Both these gases are saturated , and have logarithmic , self-limiting impacts on temperatures .
Not surprisingly , the Nature paper has been retracted .
Even global warming alarmists found it too @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to claim that expensive reductions in CO2 emission are useless because we are all doomed anyway .
Needless to say , Nature has little understanding of nature .
See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy , Defending the Orthodoxy , and Lowering Standards .
Disconnect : On Judith Curry ’ s Climate Etc.
, Kenneth Fritsch has an explanation for the apparent statistical disconnection between the earlier UN CMIP5 models and the latest CMIP6 models .
Frisch considers this disconnection from the standpoint of individual model climate sensitivities and Global Mean Surface Temperatures ( @ @ @ @ @ @ @ real disconnect is the inability of climate models to describe what is occurring between atmospheric temperature trends and greenhouse gas increases .
Further , seeking the Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity to carbon dioxide is a false goal .
One must establish an example of an equilibrium climate .
Given the constant turmoil ongoing throughout history , such a climate never existed before or after man appeared .
See links under Model Issues .
Censorship : Unfortunately , scientific journals have been censoring valid papers submitted to them that question the theme that carbon dioxide @ @ @ @ @ @ @ censoring has been a difficult problem since the 1990s .
The flow of scientific information to the public is being highly restricted for political reasons .
For these reasons , blogs and “ preprints ” that have not undergone official “ peer review ” are becoming more common .
In many cases “ peer review ” is about the same as “ approved by the censors.
” For information on how such “ peer review ” is avoided , see link under Censorship .
Number of the Week : 86 to 238 % @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a study by Vanaja , et al .
presented data on “ Harvestable grain yield of well-watered and fertilized plants grown from seeding to harvest at Hyderabad , India , out-of-doors in the field within open-top chambers made of transparent PVC sheeting having a 90 % transmittance of light.
” The increase in yield from an increase in CO2 concentration of 300 parts per million ranged from 86 to 238 % , depending on the cultivar of corn used .
The fear of CO2-caused warming eliminating corn is misplaced and corn cultivation benefits @ @ @ @ @ @ @ //www.co2science.org/data/plant_growth/dry/z/zeam.php NEWS YOU CAN USE : Free science is here and growing fast By Multiple Authors , Bezdek , Idso , Legates , and Singer eds.
, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change , April 2019 The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus By Craig D. Idso , Robert M. Carter , and S. Fred Singer , Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change ( NIPCC ) , Nov 23 , 2015 Global Sea-Level Rise : An Evaluation of the Data By Craig D. Idso , David Legates , and S. Fred Singer , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2019 Dependence of Earth ’ s Thermal Radiation on Five Most Abundant Greenhouse Gases By W. A. van Wijngaarden and W. Happer , Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics , submitted June 4 , 2020 [ SEPP Comment ; Does not include work done using HITRAN or MODTRAN . ]
Guest Post by Ken Gregory , P .
Eng.
, Not a Lot of People Know That , Nov 12 , 2020 What 50 Years Of Global Hurricane Landfall Data Can Teach Us About Climate Change Corn and other crops are not adapted to benefit @ @ @ @ @ @ @ : Carl R. Woese Institute for Genomic Biology , University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign , Nov 5 , 2020 [ H/t Bernie Kepshire ] Link to paper : Retrospective analysis of biochemical limitations to photosynthesis in 49 species : C4 crops appear still adapted to pre‐industrial atmospheric [ CO2 ] Climate change causes landfalling hurricanes to stay stronger for longer Warming oceans means hurricanes weaken more slowly and inflict more destruction farther inland , new study shows Link to paper : Slower decay of landfalling hurricanes in a warming world Study : Humanity @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Climate Change Link to paper : An earth system model shows self-sustained melting of permafrost even if all man-made GHG emissions stop in 2020 From abstract : “ To stop the self-sustained warming in ESCIMO , enormous amounts of CO2 have to be extracted from the atmosphere.
” Media reaction : What Joe Biden ’ s US election victory means for climate change The Conversation : “ Right now , there is no federal agency tasked with developing a systemic understanding of climate change… ” [ SEPP Comment : Only the 13 agencies @ @ @ @ @ @ @ so incompetently . ]
Biden administration expected to emphasize climate science over lunar exploration at NASA Biden ’ s climate plan could reduce global warming by about 0.1°C Who turned out the lights ?
By Paul Homewood , Not a Lot of People Know That , Nov 11 , 2020 France relights coal power plants to keep the lights on Will we learn from Oregon ’ s wildfire history and avoid the clearly predictable coming firestorms ?
Kim , Y.-U .
and Lee , B.-W. 2020 .
Earlier planting offsets the adverse effect @ @ @ @ @ @ @ South Korea .
Science of the Total Environment 742 : 140667 , doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.140667 .
Nov 13 , 2020 The Interactive Effects of CO2 and Salt Stress on Tomato Seedlings Zhang , Y. , Yao , Q. , Shi , Y. , Li , X. , Hou , L. , Xing , G. and Ahammed , J .
2020 .
Elevated CO2 improves antioxidant capacity , ion homeostasis , and polyamine metabolism in tomato seedlings under Ca ( NO3 ) 2-induced salt stress .
Scientia Horticulturae 273 : 109644 , doi.org/10.1016/j.scienta.2020.109644 .
Nov 11 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ serious challenge to the growth and yield of crops in many parts of the world .
Writing as background for their work , Zhang et al .
( 2020 ) note that soil salinization often leads to physiological and metabolic impairments , including ‘ mineral nutrient deficiency , damage to photosynthetic organs , reductions of photosynthetic efficiency , inhibition in plant growth and development , and ultimately yield decline.
’ On the other hand , CO2 enrichment has been shown to lead to numerous physiological and metabolic benefits that improve plant growth and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that rising CO2 will help alleviate the negative effects of salt stress on plants in the years and decades to come.
” Further Evidence the CO2 Fertilization Effect is Presently Enhancing Global Vegetative Productivity Ueyama , M. , Ichii , K. , Kobayashi , H. , Kumagai , T. , Beringer , J. , Merbold , L. , Euskirchen , E.S.
, Hirano , T. , Marchesini , L.B.
, Baldocchi , D. , Saitoh , T.M.
, Mizoguchi , Y. , Ono , K. , Kim , J. , Varlagin , A.
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ T. , Kosugi , Y. , Bret-Harte , M.S.
, Machimura , T. , Matsuura , Y. , Ohta , T. , Takagi , K. , Takanashi , S. and Yasuda , Y .
2020 .
Inferring CO2 fertilization effect based on global monitoring land-atmosphere exchange with a theoretical model .
Environmental Research Letters 15 : 084009 , doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab79e5 .
Nov 9 , 2020 Out of thin air… and back into it again “ Recently however , in this theory , anthropogenic greenhouse gas accumulation is expected to have thrown the balance off @ @ @ @ @ @ @ meter , leading to a tiny amount of warming of the atmosphere and oceans .
But as noted , our best satellites can ’ t measure the energy flows more precisely than plus or minus 4 watts per square meter .
So how do they know when the signal is lost in the noise ?
” Disconnect in the relationship between GMST and ECS Study On Hurricanes In Journal ‘ Nature ’ Plagued By “ Massive Error ” , Expert Says .
Cyclones Not Getting Worse By Paul Homewood , Not a Lot @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , 2020 “ This paper is typical of so many climate change papers nowadays .
Researchers , fed with massive grants , decide what they are going to find , and then massage the data to get the right conclusions.
” By Paul Homewood , Not a Lot of People Know That , Nov 13 , 2020 Storm Approaches With High Winds South of Seattle and Heavy Snow in the Mountains [ SEPP Comment : Brings up some of the challenges in weather forecasting . ]
New Study : Western North America Was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Rates When CO2 Was 265ppm Link to paper : Great Basin Paleoclimate and Aridity Linked to Arctic Warming and Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures By Matthew Scott Lachniet , et al .
Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology , June 2020 “ The best context for understanding decadal temperature changes comes from the world ’ s sea surface temperatures ( SST ) , for several reasons : • The ocean covers 71 % of the globe and drives average temperatures ; • SSTs have a constant water content , ( unlike air temperatures ) , so @ @ @ @ @ @ @ variations ; • A major El Nino was the dominant climate feature in recent years.
” “ HadSST3 is distinguished from other SST products because HadCRU ( Hadley Climatic Research Unit ) does not engage in SST interpolation , i.e .
infilling estimated anomalies into grid cells lacking sufficient sampling in a given month.
” [ SEPP Comment : It was dead last week ! ]
NASA Watches Sea Level Rise from Space , and its Centers ’ Windows 2 More Studies Affirm Nothing Unusual Or Unprecedented Is Occurring In Polar Climates Today @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Holocene palaeoenvironments on Bolshevik Island ( Severnaya Zemlya ) , Russian High Arctic By Anna A. Cherezova , et al .
Boreas , An Internal Journal of Quaternary Research , Jan 24 , 2020 Link to paper : On the crucial role of atmospheric rivers in the two major Weddell Polynya events in 1973 and 2017 in Antarctica Giant berg on collision course with South Georgia Shorefast ice formation and the fall feeding season for polar bears How ancient dust from the sea floor helps to explain climate history A research team led @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Germany , analyzed sediment cores from the South Pacific What Fatih Birol Forgot To Tell You By Paul Homewood , Not a Lot of People Know That , Nov 11 , 2020 [ SEPP Comment : Further exposing the misleading numbers from the International Energy Agency ( EIA ) . ]
By Staff , The Times , Via GWPF , Nov 13 , 2020 Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up .
World is running out of time on climate , experts warn In wake of Covid , leading figures @ @ @ @ @ @ @ economy Communicating Better to the Public – Protest The contradictions of Green policies to limit CO2 emissions “ Wherever the Biomass is sourced , remotely for example from Africa , North America , Indonesia , etc .
the environmental damage that the industry causes is virtually irreparable even in the medium term.
” “ The recent Michael Moore film made a telling point , that there is only enough forest timber in the whole USA to power its supply grid for a single year : and after that the forests are gone .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ will still be available for the longer-term.
” “ An excellent way to undermine Western economies is to render their power generation unreliable and expensive .
That objective of Green thinking is progressively being achieved by policy throughout the Western world.
” Blackout alert from National Grid as Britain sails close to wind The Guardian : Joe Biden ’ s $ 1.7 Trillion Investment Could Reduce Global Warming by 0.1C By Paul Homewood , Not a Lot of People Know That , Nov 11 , 2020 “ There is a very simple reason @ @ @ @ @ @ @ going for a green recovery .
It is no more than a sham , which will see trillions of dollars tipped down the drain , accompanied by the collapse of traditional economies.
” [ SEPP Comment : Government spending money to replace a solid functioning electrical system with an erratic one damages productivity and prosperity .
It is similar to replacing earth movers with humans using shovels . ]
So now can we build back better ?
“ In what direction ?
If only we knew.
” The True Cost Of The Global @ @ @ @ @ @ @ how to create 2 million green jobs HKMA Joins New Alliance On Green Financing As US $ 29 Trillion In Opportunities Expected Over Next Decade Alliance for Green Commercial Banks will help lenders address unmet green financing needs , HKMA says About US $ 18 trillion in green and climate-related financing opportunities are expected in the next decade in Asia By Staff , Financial Review , Via GWPF , Nov 10 , 2020 Put More Money into Renewable Energy or We ’ ll Report You to Joe Biden ?
Green lobby up in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ solar subsidy contracts Estimating the actual costs of converting to renewable energy sources Link to paper : A systematic review of the costs and impacts of integrating variable renewables into power grids From abstract : “ Data are scarce at high penetrations , but show that the range widens.
” Britain yet to choose between carbon tax or emissions trading post-Brexit AFR : Ignoring Climate Activist Campaigns is No Longer an Option for Australian Business EIA : US CO2 Emissions From Electricity Generation Down to 1980 ’ s Levels… Frac On !
Link @ @ @ @ @ @ @ emissions fell in 2019 , mainly in electric generation “ From next year , UK onshore wind developers will be able to bid for government subsidies , ending a five-year moratorium on price support .
Under government plans , onshore wind and solar will compete for contracts for difference ( CfDs ) , boosting the business case for greenfield and repowering projects.
” Wiltshire Council To Waste £484m On Zero Carbon Plan By Paul Homewood , Not a Lot of People Know That , Nov 10 , 2020 “ However , it is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ out like a sore thumb .
According to the council website , the council owns over 5,000 properties .
So expenditure of £289m , which works out at a mind boggling £57,800 apiece .
Energy Performance Rating B is not even particularly high anyway – typically a condensing boiler , triple glazing , cavity and loft insulation gets a B rating.
” “ If we apply this cost of £57,800 to the nation ’ s housing stock of 27m , we get a total cost of £1.56 trillion !
” Link to report @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 70 % between 2015 and 2018 [ SEPP Comment : In July , US peak demand reaches about 660 million kWh . ]
Power shortages , power surpluses , seas of milk and mountains of butter By Reinhard Storz ( Translated/ edited by P. Gosselin ) , No Tricks Zone , Nov 10 , 2020 Tory MPs call on Shapps to Stop the war on the motorist By Paul Homewood , Not a Lot of People Know That , Nov 10 , 2020 Record Heat In California Claims Not Supported By Data By @ @ @ @ @ @ @ People Know That , Nov 9 , 2020 By Paul Homewood , Not a Lot of People Know That , Nov 8 , 2020 Other News that May Be of Interest “ When we really care about something , we should think about first understanding it .
That means we might need to take some time out , to watch and listen and even read .
Of course , a best way to learn is to hear different perspectives and then to go see , to trust our own eyes and capacity to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ passengers for the first time Link to full article : Trump Administration Removes Scientist in Charge of Assessing Climate Change Michael Kuperberg was told he would no longer oversee the National Climate Assessment .
The job is expected to go to a climate-change skeptic , according to people familiar with the changes .
“ A biased or diminished climate assessment would have wide-ranging implications.
” “ And , ultimately , it could weaken what is known as the “ endangerment finding , ” a 2009 scientific finding by the Environmental Protection Agency that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ emissions pose a threat to human health and therefore are subject to government regulation .
Undercutting that finding could make it more difficult to fight climate change under the terms of the Clean Air Act.
” [ SEPP Comment : The last National Climate Assessment was a joke . ]
By Paul Homewood , Not a Lot of People Know That , Nov 9 , 2020 “ Energy and climate policy will be among President-elect Joe Biden ’ s top priorities when he steps into the Oval Office next year , but it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ challenges .
“ President Trump has been a champion of traditional energy industries such as coal and oil .
Mr. Biden wants to supercharge a transition to cleaner energy sources and has said reversing several Trump administration rollbacks of regulations aimed at combating climate change is a ‘ Day 1 ’ priority .
“ Mr .
Biden ’ s presidential authority gives him the power to move quickly .
He can order the U.S. back into the Paris climate accord , end a dispute with California on its tougher tailpipe-emission rules and work @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and slow or halt oil leasing on federal lands .
He has promised to do all of these things .
“ ‘ President-elect Biden looks forward to implementing his plans to tackle climate change while creating millions of good-paying , union jobs—which not only earned unprecedented support from climate activists , environmental justice leaders , and labor leaders , but also helped deliver a historic victory , ’ Biden spokesman Matt Hill said Monday .
“ Mr .
Biden ’ s biggest ambitions , however , will require help .
He has proposed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and transportation infrastructure as a way to address both climate change and the coronavirus pandemic ’ s economic downturn .
That would need support from Congress , and lobbyists and analysts expect Republicans will block many of his requests if they maintain Senate control.
” After a brief discussion of what may happen if the Republicans retain control of the Senate , the reporter continues : “ Lobbyists and analysts expect more modest , compromised plans .
If a divided Congress does pass an economic stimulus package to help people through the pandemic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be laden with energy and climate projects than if Democrats had commanding control of Congress , they said .
“ Concerned by Republican success in many down-ballot races , Congressional Democrats are pushing the Biden team to take more moderate positions and avoid policies that might seem punitive toward the oil industry , according to a person familiar with the talks .
They will , however , make a big push on energy-infrastructure spending , believing Republicans will be loath to vote against it .
“ ‘ Realistically , to get something that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to get some legislation , ’ said former Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid , who represented Nevada as a Democrat .
‘ All the eyes of the country are going to be on the Republicans in the Senate.
’ “ Before inauguration , lobbyists and environmentalists are watching for early signals about Mr. Biden ’ s direction on climate—how moderate or radical he might turn—through his appointments to his transition team and eventually to federal agencies .
“ Some expect Mr. Biden may devote a White House role to overseeing climate policy across @ @ @ @ @ @ @ including former Democratic presidential rival Tom Steyer , are pushing to ensure every cabinet secretary gives priority to measures to slow climate change .
“ Mr .
Biden ’ s campaign has already signaled it wants to avoid having former ‘ leaders at fossil fuel…companies ’ serve on his transition team .
But several energy experts from Mr. Biden ’ s inner circle and the Obama administration have ties to the industry , including Amos Hochstein , a former executive at the gas exporter Tellurian Inc. , and former Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Co. “ It is a minefield Mr. Biden tried to navigate with nuance while on the campaign trail .
He has promised a transition away from oil , saying it benefits the economy for the U.S. to become a leader in clean-energy businesses and to try avoiding the worst of climate change .
But he also has said that transition shouldn ’ t happen so quickly that it risks further decimating a workforce now in the middle of a pandemic-fueled slump .
“ That stance is in part shaped by unions , which @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as Pennsylvania , Michigan and Wisconsin where working-class voters scared by past environmental policies had drifted toward Republicans and Mr. Trump .
Those unions are likely to remain a central force as the Biden administration and its energy policies take shape .
“ The Biden transition team ’ s webpage , published late last week , makes climate one of four priorities and calls its response ‘ The Biden-Harris plan to create union jobs by tackling the climate crisis.
’ “ It is that attention to those workers and their jobs that brought @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the presidency—back to Democrats , said Lonnie Stephenson , a Biden climate adviser and international president of the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers .
“ ‘ We do have an administration that we believe will listen to our concerns , ’ Mr. Stephenson said .
‘ The fossil fuel industry has done a lot to ensure a greener environment as well .
Sometimes they don ’ t get credit for what they have done.
’ “ Unions and environmentalists are two important constituencies for Mr. Biden , but the two groups are often @ @ @ @ @ @ @ long sought to block pipelines as a way to limit the impact of the oil industry on climate change .
Unions support them as a source of jobs and have pressured the Biden team not to stand in their way .
“ Mr .
Biden ’ s campaign has already said that he would revoke a permit for the operation of Keystone XL , a long-delayed pipeline that would bring oil from Canada to the Midwest .
The Dakota Access crude pipeline also is at risk with a key federal permit in legal @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pending on the country ’ s primary rules for controlling the greenhouse-gas emissions that cause climate change , creating the potential for more influential decisions from the president-elect .
“ The Obama administration was the first to set national limits on those emissions from power plants , cars and trucks , and oil and gas producers , but the Trump administration eased or eliminated all of them .
All those Trump rollbacks are still in limbo under legal challenge from Democrat-led states and environmental groups .
“ Analysts and legal experts expect a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the courts to halt those cases and give it time to reconsider those rules .
“ His campaign has said the priorities for his first day as president would be to revive some of these rules and set even more stringent requirements—namely on methane-emissions limits for the oil-and-gas industry , and fuel-economy standards for new cars and trucks .
“ Many businesses and institutional investors have swung hard in recent years to support efforts to address climate change with low-emissions energy .
Those private-sector investments trends are likely to continue anyway , but @ @ @ @ @ @ @ doesn ’ t oppose them , environmentalists and executives said .
“ ‘ Investors are always looking for signals , ’ said Michael Polsky , founder and chief executive of Invenergy LLC , which develops and operates clean-energy projects .
‘ The certainty is always better .
’ ”

Brought to You by SEPP (
The Science and Environmental Policy Project The Week That Was: 2020-11-14 (November 14, 2020)Brought to You by SEPP ( www.SEPP.org The Science and Environmental Policy Project
Quote of the Week: “The care of human life and happiness, and not their destruction, is the first and only legitimate object of good government.” —Thomas Jefferson (1809)
Number of the Week: 86 to 238%
THIS WEEK:
By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
Out of Date: For the past two weeks TWTW has described work by W. A. van Wijngaarden and W. Happer (W & H), on the thermal radiation of the five most abundant greenhouse gases. The most abundant greenhouse gas, water vapor, and the second most abundant, carbon dioxide, are extremely saturated. This means that with the possible exception of polar regions, it would take major increases in the concentrations of these gases in the atmosphere to have a significant impact on global temperatures. For carbon dioxide to have a significant impact on temperatures, it would require burning of more fossil fuels than are known to exist.
The findings of W & H are backed by the temperature trend findings of John Christy and Roy Spencer. The atmosphere of the globe is warming very modestly, not significantly. Further, the atmospheric “hot spot” above the tropics suggested by the climate models is not to be found. Thus, increasing greenhouse effect is not to be feared. The global climate models that produce results of significant warming are out of date. Yet, US modelers ignore the physical evidence of what is occurring in the atmosphere, thereby ignoring their obligations to the public. Modelers in other countries may have similar obligations, which are ignored as well. Consequently, all such models are out of date.
Similarly, we have studies of agriculture which show the authors do not understand recent changes in the industry. For example, the 2018 National Climate Assessment stated that the US Midwest would become too hot for corn (maize) and soybeans and that farming will move north into Canada. Yet, over the past decade the biggest US competitor in the international market for corn and soybeans, and still growing, is tropical Brazil. Technically, the assessment was supported by the US Department of Agriculture. Surely, that Department should know the biggest competitors to the US in important agriculture markets!
Last week the Carl R. Woese Institute for Genomic Biology, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, released a news report featuring a study performed under ARPA-E, The Advanced Research Projects Agency – Energy. The report draws into question whether or not the entities involved understand modern agriculture.
The study focused on C4 crops which probably evolved 30 to 35 million years ago when the atmosphere was becoming low in carbon dioxide. In addition to corn, C4 crops include millet, sorghum, and sugarcane and C4 plants include about 50% of grass species. C4 plants have a different form of photosynthesis than C3 plants, which evolved previously. C4 plants use carbon dioxide and water more efficiently than C3 plants (wheat, soybeans, rice, virtually all trees). In nature, C4 are typically found in warm- to high-temperature areas, particularly where water is scarce.
Apparently, the ARPA-E study and the Institute review did not consider the abundant research showing that increasing CO2 allows plants to better adapt to stress, be it water, temperature, salt, etc. C3 plants become more drought resistant, reducing the natural advantage of C4 plants. More importantly, the study did not consider advances in modern agriculture, where hybrids and cultivars (a plant produced by selective breeding for cultivation) can be selected or produced for particular local conditions. As a result, the fear of warming erasing entire crops over the years is meaningless because crops can be tailored to such changes. However, the fear of cooling, freezing or cold preventing ripening, which is real, still remains.
Further, Craig Idso of CO2 Science provided links to studies demonstrating that increases in CO2 benefit corn production. Apparently, the research under the ARPA-E grant did not consider investigating the benefits of adding CO2.
As with climate studies that fail to recognize recent research of what is occurring in the atmosphere, agriculture studies that fail to recognize the modern agricultural industry are out of date. See links under Defending the Orthodoxy, Review of Recent Scientific Articles by CO2 Science (tomato seedlings), https://co2science.org/subject/a/agriculturemaize.php and http://www.co2science.org/data/plant_growth/dry/z/zeam.php
*****************
Ignorance of History: In “The Weaponization of Weather in the Phony Climate War,” Joe Bastardi of WeatherBELL Analytics states that a problem of many alarming papers is that their data does not go back more than 50 years. This ignorance of history was demonstrated by a paper in Nature and a news release by the Okinawa Institute of Science and Technology (OIST) Graduate University. The paper claimed warming oceans means hurricanes weaken more slowly and inflict more destruction farther inland. The study period was the last 50 years.
A quick look at the U.S. Hurricane Strikes by Decade from 1851 to 2004 posted by the National Hurricane Center shows possibly the three worst decades for hurricanes in recorded history. A ranking of the major storms (Cat 3 or above) reveals 1941 to 1950 with 10, 1931 to 1940 with 8; 1951-1960 with 8. Unfortunately, the decadal classification of these data has been discontinued, thus TWTW cannot contradict the study with one easily available table.
However, both Kenneth Richard and Paul Homewood produced information that the conclusions of the paper are not correct. Most compelling is a graph of Global Tropical Cyclone Landfalls at Hurricane strength 1970 to 2019 presented in an article by Roger Pielke and Ryan Maue in Forbes in January. This clearly indicates there has been no increase in major hurricanes hitting the US. Consequently, the evidence indicates that the conclusions of the study are wrong. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy, Defending the Orthodoxy, Changing Weather, and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastdec.shtml
*****************
Point of No Return: Even more outlandish, Nature published a paper claiming that: “An earth system model shows self-sustained melting of permafrost even if all man-made GHG emissions stop in 2020.” Thus, according to the paper, even if humanity stopped CO2 emissions immediately, the temperatures of the Earth will increase out of control.
The fear of melting permafrost is driven by the fear of atmospheric methane increasing, intensifying the greenhouse effect. However, there are several reasons why the fear is far-fetched. One, as shown in numerous studies, increasing permafrost melting is increasing plant growth, particularly in root mass. Thus, melting of permafrost is not releasing methane because plants are using it as fertilizer. Two, methane has a short lifetime in the atmosphere, because it is rapidly oxidized into CO2 and H2O. Both these gases are saturated, and have logarithmic, self-limiting impacts on temperatures.
Not surprisingly, the Nature paper has been retracted. Even global warming alarmists found it too much. It may prompt the public to claim that expensive reductions in CO2 emission are useless because we are all doomed anyway. Needless to say, Nature has little understanding of nature. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy, Defending the Orthodoxy, and Lowering Standards.
*****************
Disconnect: On Judith Curry’s Climate Etc., Kenneth Fritsch has an explanation for the apparent statistical disconnection between the earlier UN CMIP5 models and the latest CMIP6 models. Frisch considers this disconnection from the standpoint of individual model climate sensitivities and Global Mean Surface Temperatures (GMST).
To TWTW, the real disconnect is the inability of climate models to describe what is occurring between atmospheric temperature trends and greenhouse gas increases. Further, seeking the Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity to carbon dioxide is a false goal. One must establish an example of an equilibrium climate. Given the constant turmoil ongoing throughout history, such a climate never existed before or after man appeared. See links under Model Issues.
*****************
Censorship: Unfortunately, scientific journals have been censoring valid papers submitted to them that question the theme that carbon dioxide is causing dangerous warming. This politicized censoring has been a difficult problem since the 1990s. The flow of scientific information to the public is being highly restricted for political reasons. For these reasons, blogs and “preprints” that have not undergone official “peer review” are becoming more common. In many cases “peer review” is about the same as “approved by the censors.” For information on how such “peer review” is avoided, see link under Censorship.
*****************
Number of the Week: 86 to 238%. As reported in CO2 Science, a study by Vanaja, et al. presented data on “Harvestable grain yield of well-watered and fertilized plants grown from seeding to harvest at Hyderabad, India, out-of-doors in the field within open-top chambers made of transparent PVC sheeting having a 90% transmittance of light.” The increase in yield from an increase in CO2 concentration of 300 parts per million ranged from 86 to 238%, depending on the cultivar of corn used. The fear of CO2-caused warming eliminating corn is misplaced and corn cultivation benefits from increasing CO2. See http://www.co2science.org/data/plant_growth/dry/z/zeam.php
NEWS YOU CAN USE:
Censorship
Free science is here and growing fast
By David Wojick, WUWT, Nov 9, 2020
Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/documents/CCR/CCR-II/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2014
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-IIb/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels
By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019
http://store.heartland.org/shop/ccr-ii-fossil-fuels/
Download with no charge:
Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming
The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015
Download with no charge:
https://www.heartland.org/policy-documents/why-scientists-disagree-about-global-warming
Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate
S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008
Global Sea-Level Rise: An Evaluation of the Data
By Craig D. Idso, David Legates, and S. Fred Singer, Heartland Policy Brief, May 20, 2019
Challenging the Orthodoxy
Dependence of Earth’s Thermal Radiation on Five Most Abundant Greenhouse Gases
By W. A. van Wijngaarden and W. Happer, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics, submitted June 4, 2020
https://arxiv.org/abs/2006.03098
Link to prepublication version: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.03098.pdf
Facts and Theories, Updated
By Andy May, WUWT, Nov 10, 2020
Modern Climate Change Science
By Andy May, WUWT, Nov 12, 2020
[SEPP Comment; Does not include work done using HITRAN or MODTRAN.]
Climate Sensitivity Considering Urban and Natural Warming
Guest Post by Ken Gregory, P. Eng., Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 12, 2020
What 50 Years Of Global Hurricane Landfall Data Can Teach Us About Climate Change
By Roger Pielke and Ryan Maue, Forbes, Jan 9, 2020
https://www.forbes.com/sites/rogerpielke/2020/01/09/tropical-cyclone-landfalls-around-the-world-over-the-past-50-years/?sh=681769683b00
Wind Power Economics – Rhetoric and Reality
By Gordon Hughes, Renewable Energy Foundation, Nov 3, 2020 [H/t GWPF]
https://www.ref.org.uk/ref-blog/365-wind-power-economics-rhetoric-and-reality
Defending the Orthodoxy
Corn and other crops are not adapted to benefit from elevated carbon dioxide levels
News Release: Carl R. Woese Institute for Genomic Biology, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Nov 5, 2020 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/11/201105134513.htm
Link to paper: Retrospective analysis of biochemical limitations to photosynthesis in 49 species: C4 crops appear still adapted to pre‐industrial atmospheric [CO2]
By Charles P. Pignon & Stephen P. Long, Plant, Cell & Environment, Aug 2, 2020
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/pce.13863
Climate change causes landfalling hurricanes to stay stronger for longer
Warming oceans means hurricanes weaken more slowly and inflict more destruction farther inland, new study shows
News Release, Okinawa Institute of Science and Technology (OIST) Graduate University, Nov 11, 2020
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/11/201111122826.htm
Link to paper: Slower decay of landfalling hurricanes in a warming world
By Lin Li & Pinaki Chakraborty, Nature, Nov 11, 2020
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2867-7
Study: Humanity “is beyond the point-of-no-return” on Climate Change
By Eric Worrall WUWT, Nov 13, 2020
Link to paper: An earth system model shows self-sustained melting of permafrost even if all man-made GHG emissions stop in 2020
By Jorgen Randers & Ulrich Goluke, Nature, Scientific Reports, Nov 12, 2020
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-75481-z
From abstract: “To stop the self-sustained warming in ESCIMO, enormous amounts of CO2 have to be extracted from the atmosphere.”
Media reaction: What Joe Biden’s US election victory means for climate change
By Josh Gabbatiss, Carbon Brief, Nov 10, 2020
Questioning the Orthodoxy
SAR, the Turning Point
By Andy May, WUWT, Nov 9, 2020
The Conversation: “Right now, there is no federal agency tasked with developing a systemic understanding of climate change…”
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Nov 12, 2020
[SEPP Comment: Only the 13 agencies making up the USGCRP, which do so incompetently.]
Change in US Administrations
Energy in the Executive Branch
By Steven F. Hayward, Real Clear Energy, Nov 11, 2020
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2020/11/11/energy_in_the_executive_branch_583551.html
The Coming Energy Shocks Under A Biden Administration
By Tilak Doshi, Forbes, Nov 11, 2020
https://www.forbes.com/sites/tilakdoshi/2020/11/11/the-coming-energy-shocks-under-a-biden-administration/?sh=38225201229d
Biden administration expected to emphasize climate science over lunar exploration at NASA
By Jeff Foust, Space News, Nov 9, 2020
Biden’s climate plan could reduce global warming by about 0.1°C
By Marco Tedesco, Earth Institute at Columbia University, Phys.org, Nov 12, 2020 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
https://phys.org/news/2020-11-biden-climate-global-01c.html
Problems in the Orthodoxy
Who turned out the lights?
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Nov 11, 2020
China’s Coal Power Rising Again
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 11, 2020
France relights coal power plants to keep the lights on
By Staff, Europe1, Via GWPF, Nov 13, 2020
Science, Policy, and Evidence
Will we learn from Oregon’s wildfire history and avoid the clearly predictable coming firestorms?
By Bob Zybach, Commentator, Statesman Journal, Nov 6, 2020
https://www.statesmanjournal.com/story/opinion/2020/11/06/we-learn-oregons-wildfire-history-and-avoid-clearly-predictable-coming-firestorms/6168469002/
Review of Recent Scientific Articles by CO2 Science
Projecting Mid- and Late-century Spring Potato Yields in South Korea
Kim, Y.-U. and Lee, B.-W. 2020. Earlier planting offsets the adverse effect of global warming on spring potato in South Korea. Science of the Total Environment 742: 140667, doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.140667. Nov 13, 2020
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V23/nov/a6.php
The Interactive Effects of CO2 and Salt Stress on Tomato Seedlings
Zhang, Y., Yao, Q., Shi, Y., Li, X., Hou, L., Xing, G. and Ahammed, J. 2020. Elevated CO2 improves antioxidant capacity, ion homeostasis, and polyamine metabolism in tomato seedlings under Ca(NO3)2-induced salt stress. Scientia Horticulturae 273: 109644, doi.org/10.1016/j.scienta.2020.109644. Nov 11, 2020
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V23/nov/a5.php
“Salt stress is a serious challenge to the growth and yield of crops in many parts of the world. Writing as background for their work, Zhang et al. (2020) note that soil salinization often leads to physiological and metabolic impairments, including ‘mineral nutrient deficiency, damage to photosynthetic organs, reductions of photosynthetic efficiency, inhibition in plant growth and development, and ultimately yield decline.’ On the other hand, CO2 enrichment has been shown to lead to numerous physiological and metabolic benefits that improve plant growth and yield. Consequently, it is likely that rising CO2 will help alleviate the negative effects of salt stress on plants in the years and decades to come.”
Further Evidence the CO2 Fertilization Effect is Presently Enhancing Global Vegetative Productivity
Ueyama, M., Ichii, K., Kobayashi, H., Kumagai, T., Beringer, J., Merbold, L., Euskirchen, E.S., Hirano, T., Marchesini, L.B., Baldocchi, D., Saitoh, T.M., Mizoguchi, Y., Ono, K., Kim, J., Varlagin, A., Kang, M., Shimizu, T., Kosugi, Y., Bret-Harte, M.S., Machimura, T., Matsuura, Y., Ohta, T., Takagi, K., Takanashi, S. and Yasuda, Y. 2020. Inferring CO2 fertilization effect based on global monitoring land-atmosphere exchange with a theoretical model. Environmental Research Letters 15: 084009, doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab79e5. Nov 9, 2020
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V23/nov/a4.php
Models v. Observations
Out of thin air… and back into it again
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Nov 11, 2020
“Recently however, in this theory, anthropogenic greenhouse gas accumulation is expected to have thrown the balance off by a whopping 0.1 Watt per square meter, leading to a tiny amount of warming of the atmosphere and oceans. But as noted, our best satellites can’t measure the energy flows more precisely than plus or minus 4 watts per square meter. So how do they know when the signal is lost in the noise?”
Models Issues:
Disconnect in the relationship between GMST and ECS
By Kenneth Fritsch, Climate Etc., Nov 11, 2020
Changing Weather
Study On Hurricanes In Journal ‘Nature’ Plagued By “Massive Error”, Expert Says. Cyclones Not Getting Worse
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Nov 13, 2020
Latest Alarmist Hurricane Study Easily Debunked
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 12, 2020
“This paper is typical of so many climate change papers nowadays. Researchers, fed with massive grants, decide what they are going to find, and then massage the data to get the right conclusions.”
The Big Dry Ten Years On
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 13, 2020
[SEPP Comment: Exposing examples of torturing data.]
Storm Approaches With High Winds South of Seattle and Heavy Snow in the Mountains
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Nov 11, 2020
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2020/11/storm-approaches-with-high-winds-south.html
[SEPP Comment: Brings up some of the challenges in weather forecasting.]
Changing Climate
New Study: Western North America Was Much Warmer And Drier With Peak Wildfire Rates When CO2 Was 265ppm
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Nov 12, 2020
Link to paper: Great Basin Paleoclimate and Aridity Linked to Arctic Warming and Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures
By Matthew Scott Lachniet, et al. Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology, June 2020
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/342133019_Great_Basin_Paleoclimate_and_Aridity_Linked_to_Arctic_Warming_and_Tropical_Pacific_Sea_Surface_Temperatures
Changing Seas
Ocean Chill Increases Oct. 2020
By Ron Clutz, Science Matters, Nov 11, 2020
“The best context for understanding decadal temperature changes comes from the world’s sea surface temperatures (SST), for several reasons:
• The ocean covers 71% of the globe and drives average temperatures;
• SSTs have a constant water content, (unlike air temperatures), so give a better reading of heat content variations;
• A major El Nino was the dominant climate feature in recent years.”
“HadSST3 is distinguished from other SST products because HadCRU (Hadley Climatic Research Unit) does not engage in SST interpolation, i.e. infilling estimated anomalies into grid cells lacking sufficient sampling in a given month.”
Live coral
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Nov 11, 2020
https://climatediscussionnexus.com/2020/11/11/live-coral/
[SEPP Comment: It was dead last week!]
NASA Watches Sea Level Rise from Space, and its Centers’ Windows
By Lara Streiff for GSFC News, Greenbelt MD (SPX) Nov 11, 2020
https://www.terradaily.com/reports/NASA_Watches_Sea_Level_Rise_from_Space_and_its_Centers_Windows_999.html
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
2 More Studies Affirm Nothing Unusual Or Unprecedented Is Occurring In Polar Climates Today
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Nov 9, 2020
https://notrickszone.com/2020/11/09/2-more-studies-affirm-nothing-unusual-or-unprecedented-is-occurring-in-polar-climates-today/
Link to one study: Lateglacial and Holocene palaeoenvironments on Bolshevik Island (Severnaya Zemlya), Russian High Arctic
By Anna A. Cherezova, et al. Boreas, An Internal Journal of Quaternary Research, Jan 24, 2020
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/bor.12428
Atmospheric rivers help create massive holes in Antarctic sea ice
By Staff Writers, New Brunswick NJ (SPX), Nov 12, 2020
https://www.spacedaily.com/reports/Atmospheric_rivers_help_create_massive_holes_in_Antarctic_sea_ice_999.html
Link to paper: On the crucial role of atmospheric rivers in the two major Weddell Polynya events in 1973 and 2017 in Antarctica
By Diana Francis, et al. Science Advances, Nov 11, 2020
https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/6/46/eabc2695
Giant berg on collision course with South Georgia
By Staff Writers, Paris (ESA), Nov 11, 2020
https://www.spacedaily.com/reports/Giant_berg_on_collision_course_with_South_Georgia_999.html
Shorefast ice formation and the fall feeding season for polar bears
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Nov 11, 2020
https://polarbearscience.com/2020/11/11/shorefast-ice-formation-and-the-fall-feeding-season-for-polar-bears/
Changing Earth
How ancient dust from the sea floor helps to explain climate history
A research team led by geoscientists of the University of Oldenburg, Germany, analyzed sediment cores from the South Pacific
News Release, University of Oldenburg, Nov 9, 2020
https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2020-11/uoo-had110920.php
Agriculture Issues & Fear of Famine
Food emissions could push Earth past global warming limits
By Kelly MacNamara, Paris (AFP) ,Nov 6, 2020
https://www.seeddaily.com/reports/Food_emissions_could_push_Earth_past_global_warming_limits_999.html
Lowering Standards
What Fatih Birol Forgot To Tell You
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 11, 2020
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2020/11/11/what-fatih-birol-forgot-to-tell-you/
[SEPP Comment: Further exposing the misleading numbers from the International Energy Agency (EIA).]
‘Unstoppable’ global warming claim withdrawn by Scientific Reports journal
By Staff, The Times, Via GWPF, Nov 13, 2020
https://www.thegwpf.com/false-alarm-unstoppable-global-warming-claim-withdrawn-by-scientific-reports-journal/
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
West Side story
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Nov 11, 2020
https://climatediscussionnexus.com/2020/11/11/west-side-story/
[SEPP Comment: Defying watery predictions.]
World is running out of time on climate, experts warn
In wake of Covid, leading figures call for bold green measures to boost economy
By Fiona Harvey, The Guardian, Nov 9, 2020
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/nov/09/world-is-running-out-of-time-on-climate-experts-warn?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
Arctic circle
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Nov 11, 2020
https://climatediscussionnexus.com/2020/11/11/arctic-circle/
Communicating Better to the Public – Protest
Remembrance Day Warning: From climate hysteria to justifying green wars
By Staff, GWPF & Journal of Military Ethics, Nov 11, 2020
https://www.thegwpf.com/remembrance-day-warning-from-climate-hysteria-to-justifying-wars/
Questioning European Green
The contradictions of Green policies to limit CO2 emissions
By Ed Hoskins, edmhdotme, Accessed, Nov 12, 2020 [H/t WUWT]
https://edmhdotme.wordpress.com/the-inconsistencies-in-green-policies-to-limit-co2-emissions/
“Wherever the Biomass is sourced, remotely for example from Africa, North America, Indonesia, etc. the environmental damage that the industry causes is virtually irreparable even in the medium term.”
“The recent Michael Moore film made a telling point, that there is only enough forest timber in the whole USA to power its supply grid for a single year: and after that the forests are gone. Whereas Gas and other Fossil fuel reserves will still be available for the longer-term.”
“An excellent way to undermine Western economies is to render their power generation unreliable and expensive. That objective of Green thinking is progressively being achieved by policy throughout the Western world.”
Blackout alert from National Grid as Britain sails close to wind
By Staff, The Times, Nov 9, 2020
https://www.thegwpf.com/blackout-alert-from-national-grid-as-britain-sails-close-to-wind/
Questioning Green Elsewhere
The Guardian: Joe Biden’s $1.7 Trillion Investment Could Reduce Global Warming by 0.1C
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Nov 8, 2020
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/11/08/the-guardian-joe-bidens-1-7-trillion-investment-could-low-global-warming-by-0-1c/
World Ignores Green Recovery–Prefers To Avoid Devastating Recession Instead
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 11, 2020
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2020/11/11/world-ignores-green-recovery-prefers-to-avoid-devastating-recession-instead/
“There is a very simple reason why governments outside of Europe are not going for a green recovery. It is no more than a sham, which will see trillions of dollars tipped down the drain, accompanied by the collapse of traditional economies.”
[SEPP Comment: Government spending money to replace a solid functioning electrical system with an erratic one damages productivity and prosperity. It is similar to replacing earth movers with humans using shovels.]
So now can we build back better?
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Nov 11, 2020
https://climatediscussionnexus.com/2020/11/11/so-now-can-we-build-back-better/
“In what direction? If only we knew.”
The True Cost Of The Global Energy Transition
By Irina Slav, Oil Price.com, Nov 9, 2020
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-True-Cost-Of-The-Global-Energy-Transition.html
Green Jobs
Boris Johnson seeks advice on how to create 2 million green jobs
By Staff, Bloomberg, Via GWPF, Nov 12, 2020
https://www.thegwpf.com/boris-johnson-seeking-advice-how-to-create-2-million-green-jobs/
Funding Issues
HKMA Joins New Alliance On Green Financing As US$29 Trillion In Opportunities Expected Over Next Decade
Alliance for Green Commercial Banks will help lenders address unmet green financing needs, HKMA says About US$18 trillion in green and climate-related financing opportunities are expected in the next decade in Asia
By Staff, South China Morning Post, Nov 9, 2020
https://www.thestreet.com/partner/hkma-joins-new-alliance-on-green-financing-as-us-29-trillion-in-opportunities-expected-over-next-decade-15483852
The Political Games Continue
Labor’s climate crisis escalates down under
By Staff, Financial Review, Via GWPF, Nov 10, 2020
https://www.thegwpf.com/labors-climate-crisis-escalates-down-under/
Put More Money into Renewable Energy or We’ll Report You to Joe Biden?
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Nov 9, 2020
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/11/09/uk-pm-boris-johnson-warned-joe-biden-will-expect-more-cash-for-renewable-energy/
Cap-and-Trade and Carbon Taxes
Trump’s FERC Pushes Carbon Taxes–and Gets Caught (consumerism, anyone?)
By Martin Rodriguez and Clint Woods, Master Resource, Nov 12, 2020
https://www.masterresource.org/carbon-tax/trump-ferc-carbon-taxes/
Subsidies and Mandates Forever
Green lobby up in arms as France plans to tear up solar subsidy contracts
By Staff, GWPF & Financial Times, Nov 13, 2020
https://www.thegwpf.com/green-lobby-up-in-arms-as-france-tears-up-solar-subsidy-contracts/
Energy Issues – Non-US
Estimating the actual costs of converting to renewable energy sources
By Bob Yirka, Tech Xplore, Nov 11, 2020 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
https://techxplore.com/news/2020-11-actual-renewable-energy-sources.html
Link to paper: A systematic review of the costs and impacts of integrating variable renewables into power grids
By Philip J. Heptonstall & Robert J. K. Gross, Nature Energy, Nov 2, 2020
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41560-020-00695-4
From abstract: “Data are scarce at high penetrations, but show that the range widens.”
GWPF welcomes delay to UK energy white paper
“Astronomical Net Zero costs no longer affordable”
Press Release, GWPF, Nov 12, 2020
https://www.thegwpf.com/gwpf-welcomes-delay-to-energy-white-paper/
Britain yet to choose between carbon tax or emissions trading post-Brexit
By Staff, The Economic Times, Nov 13, 2020
https://www.thegwpf.com/britain-yet-to-choose-between-carbon-tax-or-emissions-trade-post-brexit/
Brexit Poker: EU threatens Britain with energy blockade
By Staff, GWPF & Bloomberg, Nov 12, 2020
https://www.thegwpf.com/brexit-poker-eu-threatens-britain-with-energy-blockade/
Energy Issues – Australia
AFR: Ignoring Climate Activist Campaigns is No Longer an Option for Australian Business
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Nov 11, 2020
Energy Issues — US
EIA: US CO2 Emissions From Electricity Generation Down to 1980’s Levels… Frac On!
By David Middleton, WUWT, Nov 11, 2020
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/11/11/eia-us-co2-emissions-from-electricity-generation-down-to-1980s-levels-frac-on/
Link to report: U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide emissions fell in 2019, mainly in electric generation
By Kevin Nakolan, et al, EIA, Nov 10, 2020
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=45836
Return of King Coal?
Steel! Meet the Metallurgical Coal Producers Association
By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, Nov 10, 2020
https://www.masterresource.org/coal/meet-the-metallurgical-coal-producers-association-formerly-virginia-coal-and-energy-alliance/
Nuclear Energy and Fears
Fusion Soon, Maybe
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Nov 14, 2020
https://ddears.com/2020/11/14/fusion-soon-maybe/
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
UK wind subsidy shift raises repowering hopes
By Neil Ford, Reuters, Nov 12, 2020
https://www.reutersevents.com/renewables/wind/uk-wind-subsidy-shift-raises-repowering-hopes?utm_campaign=NEP%20WIN%2013NOV20%20Newsletter%20B&utm_medium=email&utm_source=Eloqua
“From next year, UK onshore wind developers will be able to bid for government subsidies, ending a five-year moratorium on price support. Under government plans, onshore wind and solar will compete for contracts for difference (CfDs), boosting the business case for greenfield and repowering projects.”
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other
Wiltshire Council To Waste £484m On Zero Carbon Plan
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 10, 2020
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2020/11/10/wiltshire-council-to-waste-484m-on-zero-carbon-plan/
“However, it is the improvement of existing homes which sticks out like a sore thumb. According to the council website, the council owns over 5,000 properties. So expenditure of £289m, which works out at a mind boggling £57,800 apiece. Energy Performance Rating B is not even particularly high anyway – typically a condensing boiler, triple glazing, cavity and loft insulation gets a B rating.”
“If we apply this cost of £57,800 to the nation’s housing stock of 27m, we get a total cost of £1.56 trillion!”
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Storage
Utility-Scale Battery Costs “Fall” to $625/kWh
By David Middleton, WUWT, Nov 10, 2020
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/11/10/utility-scale-battery-costs-fall-to-625-kwh/
Link to report: Utility-scale battery storage costs decreased nearly 70% between 2015 and 2018
By Sara Hoff, Alexander Mey, et al. EIA, Oct 23, 2020
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=45596
[SEPP Comment: In July, US peak demand reaches about 660 million kWh.]
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=42915
Electricity Storage Systems Still Woefully Lack, Indefinitely Hampering The German Green Energy Dream
The pitfalls of planned economies…
Power shortages, power surpluses, seas of milk and mountains of butter
By Reinhard Storz (Translated/ edited by P. Gosselin), No Tricks Zone, Nov 10, 2020
https://notrickszone.com/2020/11/10/electricity-storage-systems-still-woefully-lack-indefinitely-hampering-the-german-green-energy-dream/
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles
Tory MPs call on Shapps to Stop the war on the motorist
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 10, 2020
California Dreaming
Record Heat In California Claims Not Supported By Data
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 9, 2020
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2020/11/09/record-heat-in-california-claims-not-supported-by-data/
Health, Energy, and Climate
Climate Change Poses Biggest Threat To UK Health–NHS Chief
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 8, 2020
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2020/11/08/climate-change-poses-biggest-threat-to-uk-health-nhs-chief/
Other News that May Be of Interest
Noosa River Mouth, 1973 & Yesterday
By Jennifer Marohasy, Her Blog, Nov 10, 2020
https://jennifermarohasy.com/2020/11/noosa-river-mouth-1973-yesterday/
“When we really care about something, we should think about first understanding it. That means we might need to take some time out, to watch and listen and even read. Of course, a best way to learn is to hear different perspectives and then to go see, to trust our own eyes and capacity to reason.”
Steam Fog Season
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Nov 7, 2020
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2020/11/steam-fog-season.html
Virgin’s Hyperloop carries passengers for the first time
By Staff Writers, Los Angeles (AFP), Nov 9, 2020
https://www.terradaily.com/reports/Virgins_Hyperloop_carries_passengers_for_the_first_time_999.html
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE
Friday Funny BONUS: Funniest Things Blamed on Climate Change?
Posted by Anthony Watts, WUWT, Nov 13, 2020
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/11/13/friday-funny-bonus-funniest-things-blamed-on-climate-change/
Michael Kuperberg Fired from National Climate Assessment Post
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Nov 10, 2020
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/11/10/michael-kuperberg-fired-from-national-climate-assessment/
Link to full article: Trump Administration Removes Scientist in Charge of Assessing Climate Change
Michael Kuperberg was told he would no longer oversee the National Climate Assessment. The job is expected to go to a climate-change skeptic, according to people familiar with the changes.
By Christopher Flavelle, Lisa Friedman and Coral Davenport, NYT, Nov 9, 2020
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/09/climate/michael-kuperberg-climate-assessment.html
“A biased or diminished climate assessment would have wide-ranging implications.”
“And, ultimately, it could weaken what is known as the “endangerment finding,” a 2009 scientific finding by the Environmental Protection Agency that said carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions pose a threat to human health and therefore are subject to government regulation. Undercutting that finding could make it more difficult to fight climate change under the terms of the Clean Air Act.”
[SEPP Comment: The last National Climate Assessment was a joke.]
Jumping the shark
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Nov 11, 2020
https://climatediscussionnexus.com/2020/11/11/jumping-the-shark/
New Video : Biden’s Nature Trick
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Nov 11, 2020
https://realclimatescience.com/2020/11/new-video-bidens-nature-trick/
Newly discovered primate in Myanmar ‘already facing extinction’
By Marlowe Hood, Paris (AFP), Nov 11, 2020
https://www.terradaily.com/reports/Newly_discovered_primate_in_Myanmar_already_facing_extinction_999.html
[SEPP Comment: Previously, the “newly discovered” had huge recent populations?]
Russian Navy Shoots Bear – BBC Expresses Outrage!
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 9, 2020
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2020/11/09/russian-navy-shoots-bear-bbc-expresses-outrage/
ARTICLES
Biden’s Plan to Shift Energy Policy Faces Headwinds
President-elect faces competing pressure from unions, environmentalists, energy industry and Congress
By Timothy Puko, WUWT, Nov 10, 2020
https://www.wsj.com/articles/bidens-plan-to-shift-energy-policy-faces-headwinds-11605016802
TWTW Summary: The journalist writes:
“Energy and climate policy will be among President-elect Joe Biden’s top priorities when he steps into the Oval Office next year, but it could also prove one of his toughest challenges.
“President Trump has been a champion of traditional energy industries such as coal and oil. Mr. Biden wants to supercharge a transition to cleaner energy sources and has said reversing several Trump administration rollbacks of regulations aimed at combating climate change is a ‘Day 1’ priority.
“Mr. Biden’s presidential authority gives him the power to move quickly. He can order the U.S. back into the Paris climate accord, end a dispute with California on its tougher tailpipe-emission rules and work with it on a national standard, and slow or halt oil leasing on federal lands. He has promised to do all of these things.
“‘President-elect Biden looks forward to implementing his plans to tackle climate change while creating millions of good-paying, union jobs—which not only earned unprecedented support from climate activists, environmental justice leaders, and labor leaders, but also helped deliver a historic victory,’ Biden spokesman Matt Hill said Monday.
“Mr. Biden’s biggest ambitions, however, will require help. He has proposed a $2 trillion overhaul for energy and transportation infrastructure as a way to address both climate change and the coronavirus pandemic’s economic downturn. That would need support from Congress, and lobbyists and analysts expect Republicans will block many of his requests if they maintain Senate control.”
After a brief discussion of what may happen if the Republicans retain control of the Senate, the reporter continues:
“Lobbyists and analysts expect more modest, compromised plans. If a divided Congress does pass an economic stimulus package to help people through the pandemic, it is much less likely to be laden with energy and climate projects than if Democrats had commanding control of Congress, they said.
“Concerned by Republican success in many down-ballot races, Congressional Democrats are pushing the Biden team to take more moderate positions and avoid policies that might seem punitive toward the oil industry, according to a person familiar with the talks. They will, however, make a big push on energy-infrastructure spending, believing Republicans will be loath to vote against it.
“‘Realistically, to get something that is really game changing, we need to get some legislation,’ said former Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, who represented Nevada as a Democrat. ‘All the eyes of the country are going to be on the Republicans in the Senate.’
“Before inauguration, lobbyists and environmentalists are watching for early signals about Mr. Biden’s direction on climate—how moderate or radical he might turn—through his appointments to his transition team and eventually to federal agencies.
“Some expect Mr. Biden may devote a White House role to overseeing climate policy across his administration. And some advisers, including former Democratic presidential rival Tom Steyer, are pushing to ensure every cabinet secretary gives priority to measures to slow climate change.
“Mr. Biden’s campaign has already signaled it wants to avoid having former ‘leaders at fossil fuel…companies’ serve on his transition team. But several energy experts from Mr. Biden’s inner circle and the Obama administration have ties to the industry, including Amos Hochstein, a former executive at the gas exporter Tellurian Inc., and former Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz, a board member at utility Southern Co.
“It is a minefield Mr. Biden tried to navigate with nuance while on the campaign trail. He has promised a transition away from oil, saying it benefits the economy for the U.S. to become a leader in clean-energy businesses and to try avoiding the worst of climate change. But he also has said that transition shouldn’t happen so quickly that it risks further decimating a workforce now in the middle of a pandemic-fueled slump.
“That stance is in part shaped by unions, which he courted to recapture battleground states such as Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin where working-class voters scared by past environmental policies had drifted toward Republicans and Mr. Trump. Those unions are likely to remain a central force as the Biden administration and its energy policies take shape.
“The Biden transition team’s webpage, published late last week, makes climate one of four priorities and calls its response ‘The Biden-Harris plan to create union jobs by tackling the climate crisis.’
“It is that attention to those workers and their jobs that brought those very states—and, with them, the presidency—back to Democrats, said Lonnie Stephenson, a Biden climate adviser and international president of the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers.
“‘We do have an administration that we believe will listen to our concerns,’ Mr. Stephenson said. ‘The fossil fuel industry has done a lot to ensure a greener environment as well. Sometimes they don’t get credit for what they have done.’
“Unions and environmentalists are two important constituencies for Mr. Biden, but the two groups are often at odds.
“Environmental groups have long sought to block pipelines as a way to limit the impact of the oil industry on climate change. Unions support them as a source of jobs and have pressured the Biden team not to stand in their way.
“Mr. Biden’s campaign has already said that he would revoke a permit for the operation of Keystone XL, a long-delayed pipeline that would bring oil from Canada to the Midwest. The Dakota Access crude pipeline also is at risk with a key federal permit in legal limbo.
“Court cases are also pending on the country’s primary rules for controlling the greenhouse-gas emissions that cause climate change, creating the potential for more influential decisions from the president-elect.
“The Obama administration was the first to set national limits on those emissions from power plants, cars and trucks, and oil and gas producers, but the Trump administration eased or eliminated all of them. All those Trump rollbacks are still in limbo under legal challenge from Democrat-led states and environmental groups.
“Analysts and legal experts expect a Biden administration would have its lawyers ask the courts to halt those cases and give it time to reconsider those rules.
“His campaign has said the priorities for his first day as president would be to revive some of these rules and set even more stringent requirements—namely on methane-emissions limits for the oil-and-gas industry, and fuel-economy standards for new cars and trucks.
“Many businesses and institutional investors have swung hard in recent years to support efforts to address climate change with low-emissions energy. Those private-sector investments trends are likely to continue anyway, but can grow stronger with a president who doesn’t oppose them, environmentalists and executives said.
“‘Investors are always looking for signals,’ said Michael Polsky, founder and chief executive of Invenergy LLC, which develops and operates clean-energy projects. ‘The certainty is always better.’”
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wattsupwiththat--2020-11-16--Birth of magnetar from colossal collision potentially spotted for first time

Neutron star merger results in magnetar with brightest kilonova ever observed EVANSTON , Ill. — Long ago and far across the universe , an enormous burst of gamma rays unleashed more energy in a half-second than the sun will produce over its entire 10-billion-year lifetime .
After examining the incredibly bright burst with optical , X-ray , near-infrared and radio wavelengths , a Northwestern University-led astrophysics team believes it potentially spotted the birth of a magnetar .
Researchers believe the magnetar was formed by two neutron stars merging , which has never before been observed .
The merger resulted in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ seen — whose light finally reached Earth on May 22 , 2020 .
The light first came as a blast of gamma-rays , called a short gamma-ray burst .
“ When two neutron stars merge , the most common predicted outcome is that they form a heavy neutron star that collapses into a black hole within milliseconds or less , ” said Northwestern ’ s Wen-fai Fong , who led the study .
“ Our study shows that it ’ s possible that , for this particular short gamma-ray burst , the heavy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a black hole , it became a magnetar : A rapidly spinning neutron star that has large magnetic fields , dumping energy into its surrounding environment and creating the very bright glow that we see.
” The research has been accepted by The Astrophysical Journal and will be published online later this year .
Fong is an assistant professor of physics and astronomy in Northwestern ’ s Weinberg College of Arts and Sciences and a member of CIERA ( Center for Interdisciplinary Exploration and Research in Astrophysics ) .
The research involved two @ @ @ @ @ @ @ postdoctoral fellows from Fong ’ s laboratory.
‘ There was a new phenomenon happening ’ After the light was first detected by NASA ’ s Neil Gehrels Swift Observatory , scientists quickly enlisted other telescopes — including NASA ’ s Hubble Space Telescope , the Very Large Array , the W.M .
Keck Observatory and the Las Cumbres Observatory Global Telescope network — to study the explosion ’ s aftermath and its host galaxy .
Fong ’ s team quickly realized that something didn ’ t add up .
Compared to X-ray and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with Hubble was much too bright .
In fact , it was 10 times brighter than predicted .
“ As the data were coming in , we were forming a picture of the mechanism that was producing the light we were seeing , ” said the study ’ s co-investigator , Tanmoy Laskar of the University of Bath in the United Kingdom .
“ As we got the Hubble observations , we had to completely change our thought process , because the information that Hubble added made us realize that we had to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was a new phenomenon going on .
Then we had to figure out about what that meant for the physics behind these extremely energetic explosions.
” Magnetic monster Fong and her team have discussed several possibilities to explain the unusual brightness — known as a short gamma-ray burst — that Hubble saw .
Researchers think short bursts are caused by the merger of two neutron stars , extremely dense objects about the mass of the sun compressed into the volume of a large city like Chicago .
While most short gamma-ray bursts probably @ @ @ @ @ @ @ two neutron stars that merged in this case may have combined to form a magnetar , a supermassive neutron star with a very powerful magnetic field .
“ You basically have these magnetic field lines that are anchored to the star that are whipping around at about 1,000 times a second , and this produces a magnetized wind , ” Laskar explained .
“ These spinning field lines extract the rotational energy of the neutron star formed in the merger , and deposit that energy into the ejecta from the blast , causing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ We know that magnetars exist because we see them in our galaxy , ” Fong said .
“ We think most of them are formed in the explosive deaths of massive stars , leaving these highly magnetized neutron stars behind .
However , it is possible that a small fraction form in neutron star mergers .
We have never seen evidence of that before , let alone in infrared light , making this discovery special.
” Strangely bright kilonova Kilonovae , which are typically 1,000 times brighter than a classic nova , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Unique to the merger of two compact objects , kilonovae glow from the radioactive decay of heavy elements ejected during the merger , producing coveted elements like gold and uranium .
“ We only have one confirmed and well-sampled kilonova to date , ” said Jillian Rastinejad , a co-author of the paper and graduate student in Fong ’ s laboratory .
“ So it is especially exciting to find a new potential kilonova that looks so different .
This discovery gave us the opportunity to explore the diversity of kilonovae and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ brightness seen by Hubble came from a magnetar that deposited energy into the kilonova material , then , within a few years , the ejected material from the burst will produce light that shows up at radio wavelengths .
Follow-up radio observations may ultimately prove that this was a magnetar , leading to an explanation of the origin of such objects .
“ Now that we have one very bright candidate kilonova , ” Rastinejad said , “ I ’ m excited for the new surprises that short gamma-ray bursts and neutron star @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the future.
” The Hubble Space Telescope is a project of international cooperation between NASA and ESA ( European Space Agency ) .
NASA ’ s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt , Maryland , manages the telescope .
The Space Telescope Science Institute ( STScI ) in Baltimore , Maryland , conducts Hubble science operations .
STScI is operated for NASA by the Association of Universities for Research in Astronomy in Washington , D.C .
The study , “ The broadband counterpart of the short GRB 2005221 at z = 0.5536 : @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with a reverse shock ?
” was supported by the National Science Foundation ( award numbers AST-1814782 and AST-1909358 ) and NASA ( program number 15964 ) .

Neutron star merger results in magnetar with brightest kilonova ever observed
NORTHWESTERN UNIVERSITY
Research News
VIDEO: NEUTRON STAR MERGER RESULTS IN BRIGHTEST-EVER-OBSERVED KILONOVA AND SUBSEQUENT MAGNETAR.
CREDIT: NASA, ESA, AND D. PLAYER (STSCI)
EVANSTON, Ill. — Long ago and far across the universe, an enormous burst of gamma rays unleashed more energy in a half-second than the sun will produce over its entire 10-billion-year lifetime.
After examining the incredibly bright burst with optical, X-ray, near-infrared and radio wavelengths, a Northwestern University-led astrophysics team believes it potentially spotted the birth of a magnetar.
Researchers believe the magnetar was formed by two neutron stars merging, which has never before been observed. The merger resulted in a brilliant kilonova — the brightest ever seen — whose light finally reached Earth on May 22, 2020. The light first came as a blast of gamma-rays, called a short gamma-ray burst.
“When two neutron stars merge, the most common predicted outcome is that they form a heavy neutron star that collapses into a black hole within milliseconds or less,” said Northwestern’s Wen-fai Fong, who led the study. “Our study shows that it’s possible that, for this particular short gamma-ray burst, the heavy object survived. Instead of collapsing into a black hole, it became a magnetar: A rapidly spinning neutron star that has large magnetic fields, dumping energy into its surrounding environment and creating the very bright glow that we see.”
The research has been accepted by The Astrophysical Journal and will be published online later this year.
Fong is an assistant professor of physics and astronomy in Northwestern’s Weinberg College of Arts and Sciences and a member of CIERA (Center for Interdisciplinary Exploration and Research in Astrophysics). The research involved two undergraduates, three graduate students and three postdoctoral fellows from Fong’s laboratory.‘There was a new phenomenon happening’
After the light was first detected by NASA’s Neil Gehrels Swift Observatory, scientists quickly enlisted other telescopes — including NASA’s Hubble Space Telescope, the Very Large Array, the W.M. Keck Observatory and the Las Cumbres Observatory Global Telescope network — to study the explosion’s aftermath and its host galaxy.
Fong’s team quickly realized that something didn’t add up.
Compared to X-ray and radio observations, the near-infrared emission detected with Hubble was much too bright. In fact, it was 10 times brighter than predicted.
“As the data were coming in, we were forming a picture of the mechanism that was producing the light we were seeing,” said the study’s co-investigator, Tanmoy Laskar of the University of Bath in the United Kingdom. “As we got the Hubble observations, we had to completely change our thought process, because the information that Hubble added made us realize that we had to discard our conventional thinking and that there was a new phenomenon going on. Then we had to figure out about what that meant for the physics behind these extremely energetic explosions.”Magnetic monster
Fong and her team have discussed several possibilities to explain the unusual brightness — known as a short gamma-ray burst — that Hubble saw. Researchers think short bursts are caused by the merger of two neutron stars, extremely dense objects about the mass of the sun compressed into the volume of a large city like Chicago. While most short gamma-ray bursts probably result in a black hole, the two neutron stars that merged in this case may have combined to form a magnetar, a supermassive neutron star with a very powerful magnetic field.
“You basically have these magnetic field lines that are anchored to the star that are whipping around at about 1,000 times a second, and this produces a magnetized wind,” Laskar explained. “These spinning field lines extract the rotational energy of the neutron star formed in the merger, and deposit that energy into the ejecta from the blast, causing the material to glow even brighter.”
“We know that magnetars exist because we see them in our galaxy,” Fong said. “We think most of them are formed in the explosive deaths of massive stars, leaving these highly magnetized neutron stars behind. However, it is possible that a small fraction form in neutron star mergers. We have never seen evidence of that before, let alone in infrared light, making this discovery special.”Strangely bright kilonova
Kilonovae, which are typically 1,000 times brighter than a classic nova, are expected to accompany short gamma-ray bursts. Unique to the merger of two compact objects, kilonovae glow from the radioactive decay of heavy elements ejected during the merger, producing coveted elements like gold and uranium.
“We only have one confirmed and well-sampled kilonova to date,” said Jillian Rastinejad, a co-author of the paper and graduate student in Fong’s laboratory. “So it is especially exciting to find a new potential kilonova that looks so different. This discovery gave us the opportunity to explore the diversity of kilonovae and their remnant objects.”
If the unexpected brightness seen by Hubble came from a magnetar that deposited energy into the kilonova material, then, within a few years, the ejected material from the burst will produce light that shows up at radio wavelengths. Follow-up radio observations may ultimately prove that this was a magnetar, leading to an explanation of the origin of such objects.
“Now that we have one very bright candidate kilonova,” Rastinejad said, “I’m excited for the new surprises that short gamma-ray bursts and neutron star mergers have in store for us in the future.”
###
The Hubble Space Telescope is a project of international cooperation between NASA and ESA (European Space Agency). NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland, manages the telescope. The Space Telescope Science Institute (STScI) in Baltimore, Maryland, conducts Hubble science operations. STScI is operated for NASA by the Association of Universities for Research in Astronomy in Washington, D.C.
The study, “The broadband counterpart of the short GRB 2005221 at z = 0.5536: A luminous kilonova or a collimated outflow with a reverse shock?” was supported by the National Science Foundation (award numbers AST-1814782 and AST-1909358) and NASA (program number 15964).
From EurekAlert!
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wattsupwiththat--2020-11-15--Possible 1,000-kilometer-long river running deep below Greenland’s ice sheet

Computational models suggest that melting water originating in the deep interior of Greenland could flow the entire length of a subglacial valley and exit at Petermann Fjord , along the northern coast of the island .
Updating ice sheet models with this open valley could provide additional insight for future climate change predictions .
Radar surveys have previously mapped Greenland ’ s bedrock buried beneath two to three thousand meters of ice .
Mathematical models were used to fill in the gaps in survey data and infer bedrock depths .
The surveys revealed the long valley , but suggested it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ freely through it .
However , the peaks breaking the valley into segments only show up in areas where the mathematical modelling was used to fill in missing data , so could not be real .
Christopher Chambers and Ralf Greve , scientists at Hokkaido University ’ s Institute of Low Temperature Science , wanted to explore what might happen if the valley is open and melting increases at an area deep in Greenland ’ s interior known for melting .
Collaborating with researchers at the University of Oslo , they ran numerous @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Greenland with and without valley segmentation .
The results , recently published in The Cryosphere , show a dramatic change in how water melting at the base of the ice sheet would flow , if the valley is indeed open .
A distinct subglacial watercourse runs all the way from the melting site to Petermann Fjord , which is located more than 1,000 kilometers away on the northern coast of Greenland .
The watercourse only appears when valley segmentation is removed ; there are no other major changes to the landscape or water @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with a long subglacial river , ” Chambers says , “ but considerable uncertainty remains .
For example , we don ’ t know how much water , if any , is available to flow along the valley , and if it does indeed exit at Petermann Fjord or is refrozen , or escapes the valley , along the way.
” If water is flowing , the model suggests it could traverse the whole length of the valley because the valley is relatively flat , similar to a riverbed .
This suggests no @ @ @ @ @ @ @ physical blockade .
The simulations also suggested that there was more water flow towards the fjord with a level valley base set at 500 meters below sea level than when set at 100 meters below .
In addition , when melting is increased only in the deep interior at a known region of basal melting , the simulated discharge is increased down the entire length of the valley only when the valley is unblocked .
This suggests that a quite finely tuned relationship between the valley form and overlying ice can allow a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
“ Additional radar surveys are needed to confirm the simulations are accurate , ” says Greve , who has been developing the model used in the study , called Simulation Code for Polythermal Ice Sheets ( SICOPOLIS ) .
“ This could introduce a fundamentally different hydrological system for the Greenland ice sheet .
The correct simulation of such a long subglacial hydrological system could be important for accurate future ice sheet simulations under a changing climate .
”

HOKKAIDO UNIVERSITY
Research News
IMAGE: THE SUGGESTED VALLEY AND POSSIBLE RIVER FLOWING FROM THE DEEP INTERIOR OF GREENLAND TO PETERMANN FJORD DEEP BELOW GREENLAND’S ICE SHEET (500 METERS BELOW SEA LEVEL). (CHRISTOPHER CHAMBERS ET AL,… view more CREDIT: CHRISTOPHER CHAMBERS ET AL, THE CRYOSPHERE, NOVEMBER 12, 2020.
Computational models suggest that melting water originating in the deep interior of Greenland could flow the entire length of a subglacial valley and exit at Petermann Fjord, along the northern coast of the island. Updating ice sheet models with this open valley could provide additional insight for future climate change predictions.
Radar surveys have previously mapped Greenland’s bedrock buried beneath two to three thousand meters of ice. Mathematical models were used to fill in the gaps in survey data and infer bedrock depths. The surveys revealed the long valley, but suggested it was segmented, preventing water from flowing freely through it. However, the peaks breaking the valley into segments only show up in areas where the mathematical modelling was used to fill in missing data, so could not be real.
Christopher Chambers and Ralf Greve, scientists at Hokkaido University’s Institute of Low Temperature Science, wanted to explore what might happen if the valley is open and melting increases at an area deep in Greenland’s interior known for melting. Collaborating with researchers at the University of Oslo, they ran numerous simulations to compare water dynamics in northern Greenland with and without valley segmentation.
The results, recently published in The Cryosphere, show a dramatic change in how water melting at the base of the ice sheet would flow, if the valley is indeed open. A distinct subglacial watercourse runs all the way from the melting site to Petermann Fjord, which is located more than 1,000 kilometers away on the northern coast of Greenland. The watercourse only appears when valley segmentation is removed; there are no other major changes to the landscape or water dynamics.
“The results are consistent with a long subglacial river,” Chambers says, “but considerable uncertainty remains. For example, we don’t know how much water, if any, is available to flow along the valley, and if it does indeed exit at Petermann Fjord or is refrozen, or escapes the valley, along the way.”
If water is flowing, the model suggests it could traverse the whole length of the valley because the valley is relatively flat, similar to a riverbed. This suggests no parts of the ice sheet form a physical blockade. The simulations also suggested that there was more water flow towards the fjord with a level valley base set at 500 meters below sea level than when set at 100 meters below. In addition, when melting is increased only in the deep interior at a known region of basal melting, the simulated discharge is increased down the entire length of the valley only when the valley is unblocked. This suggests that a quite finely tuned relationship between the valley form and overlying ice can allow a very long down-valley water pathway to develop.
“Additional radar surveys are needed to confirm the simulations are accurate,” says Greve, who has been developing the model used in the study, called Simulation Code for Polythermal Ice Sheets (SICOPOLIS). “This could introduce a fundamentally different hydrological system for the Greenland ice sheet. The correct simulation of such a long subglacial hydrological system could be important for accurate future ice sheet simulations under a changing climate.”
###
From EurekAlert!
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