wattsupwiththat--2020-05-04--Gravitational waves could prove the existence of the quark-gluon plasma

Computer models of merging neutron stars predicts how to tell when this happens Neutron stars are among the densest objects in the universe .
If our Sun , with its radius of 700,000 kilometres were a neutron star , its mass would be condensed into an almost perfect sphere with a radius of around 12 kilometres .
When two neutron stars collide and merge into a hyper-massive neutron star , the matter in the core of the new object becomes incredibly hot and dense .
According to physical calculations , these conditions could result in hadrons such as neutrons and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ found in our daily experience , dissolving into their components of quarks and gluons and thus producing a quark-gluon plasma .
In 2017 it was discovered for the first time that merging neutron stars send out a gravitational wave signal that can be detected on Earth .
The signal not only provides information on the nature of gravity , but also on the behaviour of matter under extreme conditions .
When these gravitational waves were first discovered in 2017 , however , they were not recorded beyond the merging point .
This is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ begins .
They simulated merging neutron stars and the product of the merger to explore the conditions under which a transition from hadrons to a quark-gluon plasma would take place and how this would affect the corresponding gravitational wave .
The result : in a specific , late phase of the life of the merged object a phase transition to the quark-gluon plasma took place and left a clear and characteristic signature on the gravitational-wave signal .
Professor Luciano Rezzolla from Goethe University is convinced : “ Compared to previous simulations , we @ @ @ @ @ @ @ gravitational waves that is significantly clearer to detect .
If this signature occurs in the gravitational waves that we will receive from future neutron-star mergers , we would have a clear evidence for the creation of quark-gluon plasma in the present universe.
” Video : Visualisation of merging neutron stars : https : //www.youtube.com/watch ?
v=rj-r-YA9d6E & t=1s This simulation shows the density of the ordinary matter ( mostly neutrons ) in red-yellow .
Shortly after the two stars merge the extremely dense centre turns green , depicting the formation of the quark-gluon @ @ @ @ @ @ @ : http : //www.uni-frankfurt.de/87973606 Caption Montage : Montage of the computer simulation of two merging neutron stars that blends over with an image from heavy-ion collisions to highlight the connection of astrophysics with nuclear physics .
Credit : Lukas R. Weih & Luciano Rezzolla ( Goethe University Frankfurt ) ( right half of the image from cms.cern ) Caption Simulation : Shortly after two neutron stars merge a quark gluon plasma forms in the centre of the new object .
Red yellow : ordinary matter , mostly neutrons .
Credit : Lukas R. @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Frankfurt ) Current news about science , teaching , and society can be found on GOETHE-UNI online ( http : //www.aktuelles.uni-frankfurt.de ) Goethe University is a research-oriented university in the European financial centre Frankfurt am Main .
The university was founded in 1914 through private funding , primarily from Jewish sponsors , and has since produced pioneering achievements in the areas of social sciences , sociology and economics , medicine , quantum physics , brain research , and labour law .
It gained a unique level of autonomy on 1 January 2008 by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ foundation university ” .
Today , it is one of the three largest universities in Germany .
Together with the Technical University of Darmstadt and the University of Mainz , it is a partner in the inter-state strategic Rhine-Main University Alliance .
Internet : http : //www.uni-frankfurt.de Publisher : The President of Goethe University Editor : Dr. Markus Bernards , Science Editor , PR & Communication Department , Theodor-W.-Adorno-Platz 1 , 60323 Frankfurt am Main

Computer models of merging neutron stars predicts how to tell when this happens
Goethe University Frankfurt
IMAGE: Montage of the computer simulation of two merging neutron stars that blends over with an image from heavy-ion collisions to highlight the connection of astrophysics with nuclear physics. view more Credit: Lukas R. Weih & Luciano Rezzolla (Goethe University Frankfurt) (right half of the image from cms.cern)
Neutron stars are among the densest objects in the universe. If our Sun, with its radius of 700,000 kilometres were a neutron star, its mass would be condensed into an almost perfect sphere with a radius of around 12 kilometres. When two neutron stars collide and merge into a hyper-massive neutron star, the matter in the core of the new object becomes incredibly hot and dense. According to physical calculations, these conditions could result in hadrons such as neutrons and protons, which are the particles normally found in our daily experience, dissolving into their components of quarks and gluons and thus producing a quark-gluon plasma.
In 2017 it was discovered for the first time that merging neutron stars send out a gravitational wave signal that can be detected on Earth. The signal not only provides information on the nature of gravity, but also on the behaviour of matter under extreme conditions. When these gravitational waves were first discovered in 2017, however, they were not recorded beyond the merging point.
This is where the work of the Frankfurt physicists begins. They simulated merging neutron stars and the product of the merger to explore the conditions under which a transition from hadrons to a quark-gluon plasma would take place and how this would affect the corresponding gravitational wave. The result: in a specific, late phase of the life of the merged object a phase transition to the quark-gluon plasma took place and left a clear and characteristic signature on the gravitational-wave signal.
Professor Luciano Rezzolla from Goethe University is convinced: “Compared to previous simulations, we have discovered a new signature in the gravitational waves that is significantly clearer to detect. If this signature occurs in the gravitational waves that we will receive from future neutron-star mergers, we would have a clear evidence for the creation of quark-gluon plasma in the present universe.”
###
Publication: Post-merger gravitational wave signatures of phase transitions in binary mergers Lukas R. Weih, Matthias Hanauske, Luciano Rezzolla, Physical Review Letters DOI 10.1103/PhysRevLett.124.171103 https://journals.aps.org/prl/
Video: Visualisation of merging neutron stars: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rj-r-YA9d6E&t=1s This simulation shows the density of the ordinary matter (mostly neutrons) in red-yellow. Shortly after the two stars merge the extremely dense centre turns green, depicting the formation of the quark-gluon plasma.
Pictures may be downloaded here: http://www.uni-frankfurt.de/87973606
Caption Montage: Montage of the computer simulation of two merging neutron stars that blends over with an image from heavy-ion collisions to highlight the connection of astrophysics with nuclear physics. Credit: Lukas R. Weih & Luciano Rezzolla (Goethe University Frankfurt) (right half of the image from cms.cern)
Caption Simulation: Shortly after two neutron stars merge a quark gluon plasma forms in the centre of the new object. Red yellow: ordinary matter, mostly neutrons. Credit: Lukas R. Weih & Luciano Rezzolla (Goethe University Frankfurt)
Further information:
Goethe University Frankfurt
Prof. Dr. Luciano Rezzolla
Chair of Theoretical Astrophysics
Institute for Theoretical Physics
https://astro.uni-frankfurt.de/rezzolla/
Current news about science, teaching, and society can be found on GOETHE-UNI online (http://www.aktuelles.uni-frankfurt.de)
Goethe University is a research-oriented university in the European financial centre Frankfurt am Main. The university was founded in 1914 through private funding, primarily from Jewish sponsors, and has since produced pioneering achievements in the areas of social sciences, sociology and economics, medicine, quantum physics, brain research, and labour law. It gained a unique level of autonomy on 1 January 2008 by returning to its historic roots as a “foundation university”. Today, it is one of the three largest universities in Germany. Together with the Technical University of Darmstadt and the University of Mainz, it is a partner in the inter-state strategic Rhine-Main University Alliance. Internet: http://www.uni-frankfurt.de
Publisher: The President of Goethe University Editor: Dr. Markus Bernards, Science Editor, PR & Communication Department, Theodor-W.-Adorno-Platz 1, 60323 Frankfurt am Main
From EurekAlert!
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wattsupwiththat--2020-05-05--Climate Claim: By 2070 Average Temperatures be “Unsuitable for Human Life to Flourish”

According to a new study , people don ’ t thrive in places where the average annual temperature is higher than 15C / 59F .
Unsuitable for ‘ human life to flourish ’ : Up to 3B will live in extreme heat by 2070 , study warns By 2070 , up to 3 billion people are likely to live in climate conditions ‘ deemed unsuitable for human life to flourish.
’ If global warming continues unchecked , the heat that ’ s coming later this century in some parts of the world will bring “ nearly unlivable ” conditions for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ study released Monday said .
The authors predict that by 2070 , much of the world ’ s population is likely to live in climate conditions that are “ warmer than conditions deemed suitable for human life to flourish.
” That “ niche ” is equivalent to average yearly temperatures of roughly 52 to 59 Fahrenheit .
The researchers found that people , despite all forms of innovations and migrations , have mostly lived in these climate conditions for several thousand years .
“ Large areas of the planet would heat to barely @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cool down again , ” said study co-author Marten Scheffer of Wageningen University in the Netherlands .
“ Not only would this have devastating direct effects , it leaves societies less able to cope with future crises like new pandemics .
The only thing that can stop this happening is a rapid cut in carbon emissions.
” The abstract of the study ; Chi Xu , Timothy A. Kohler , Timothy M. Lenton , Jens-Christian Svenning , and Marten Scheffer PNAS first published May 4 , 2020 https : //doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1910114117 Contributed by Marten @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sent for review June 12 , 2019 ; reviewed by Victor Galaz and Luke Kemp ) All species have an environmental niche , and despite technological advances , humans are unlikely to be an exception .
Here , we demonstrate that for millennia , human populations have resided in the same narrow part of the climatic envelope available on the globe , characterized by a major mode around ∼11 °C to 15 °C mean annual temperature ( MAT ) .
Supporting the fundamental nature of this temperature niche , current production of crops @ @ @ @ @ @ @ same conditions , and the same optimum has been found for agricultural and nonagricultural economic output of countries through analyses of year-to-year variation .
We show that in a business-as-usual climate change scenario , the geographical position of this temperature niche is projected to shift more over the coming 50 y than it has moved since 6000 BP .
Populations will not simply track the shifting climate , as adaptation in situ may address some of the challenges , and many other factors affect decisions to migrate .
Nevertheless , in the absence @ @ @ @ @ @ @ global population is projected to experience a MAT > 29 °C currently found in only 0.8 % of the Earth ’ s land surface , mostly concentrated in the Sahara .
As the potentially most affected regions are among the poorest in the world , where adaptive capacity is low , enhancing human development in those areas should be a priority alongside climate mitigation .
The explanation the study authors give for why they don ’ t think humans thrive above 59F ; Why have humans remained concentrated so consistently in the same @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ?
The full complex of mechanisms responsible for the patterns is obviously hard to unravel .
The constancy of the core distribution of humans over millennia in the face of accumulating innovations is suggestive of a fundamental link to temperature .
However , one could argue that the realized niche may merely reflect the ancient needs of agrarian production .
Perhaps , people stayed and populations kept expanding in those places , even if the corresponding climate conditions had become irrelevant ?
Three lines of evidence suggest that this is unlikely , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to the observed realized temperature niche for causal reasons .
First , an estimated 50 % of the global population depends on smallholder farming ( 19 ) , and much of the energy input in such systems comes from physical work carried out by farmers , which can be strongly affected by extreme temperatures ( 20 ) .
Second , high temperatures have strong impacts ( 21⇓–23 ) , affecting not only physical labor capacity but also mood , behavior , and mental health through heat exhaustion and effects on cognitive and psychological @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ) .
The third , and perhaps most striking , indication for causality behind the temperature optimum we find is that it coincides with the optimum for economic productivity found in a study of climate-related dynamics in 166 countries ( 12 ) .
To eliminate confounding effects of historical , cultural , and political differences , that study focused on the relation within countries between year-to-year differences in economic productivity and temperature anomalies .
The ∼13 °C optimum in MAT they find holds globally across agricultural and nonagricultural activity in rich and poor @ @ @ @ @ @ @ entirely different set of data , that economic study independently points to the same temperature optimum we infer .
Read more : Same link as above My view , this kind of study is what happens when a bunch of scientists based in temperate climates didn ’ t enjoy their last Caribbean holiday .
There is substantial evidence the “ optimum ” described in the study is a historical accident .
There are plenty of cultures like Thailand and India , which built large populous nations with big cities , even conquered empires @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a temperate climate , not to mention wealthy modern day tropical nations like Singapore , Malaysia and increasingly Indonesia .

The people of Singapore endure average temperatures well above the 15C optimum. Their suffering is obvious. (The Singapore Merlion at the Bay) [CC BY 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons
Guest essay by Eric Worrall
According to a new study, people don’t thrive in places where the average annual temperature is higher than 15C / 59F.
Unsuitable for ‘human life to flourish’: Up to 3B will live in extreme heat by 2070, study warns Doyle Rice USA TODAY
May 4, 2020 By 2070, up to 3 billion people are likely to live in climate conditions ‘deemed unsuitable for human life to flourish.’ … If global warming continues unchecked, the heat that’s coming later this century in some parts of the world will bring “nearly unlivable” conditions for up to 3 billion people, a study released Monday said. The authors predict that by 2070, much of the world’s population is likely to live in climate conditions that are “warmer than conditions deemed suitable for human life to flourish.” … That “niche” is equivalent to average yearly temperatures of roughly 52 to 59 Fahrenheit. The researchers found that people, despite all forms of innovations and migrations, have mostly lived in these climate conditions for several thousand years. … “Large areas of the planet would heat to barely survivable levels and they wouldn’t cool down again,” said study co-author Marten Scheffer of Wageningen University in the Netherlands. “Not only would this have devastating direct effects, it leaves societies less able to cope with future crises like new pandemics. The only thing that can stop this happening is a rapid cut in carbon emissions.” … Read more: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2020/05/04/world-heat-conditions-unlivable-global-warming-unabated/3063849001/
The abstract of the study;
Future of the human climate niche Chi Xu, Timothy A. Kohler, Timothy M. Lenton, Jens-Christian Svenning, and Marten Scheffer
PNAS first published May 4, 2020 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1910114117 Contributed by Marten Scheffer, October 27, 2019 (sent for review June 12, 2019; reviewed by Victor Galaz and Luke Kemp) All species have an environmental niche, and despite technological advances, humans are unlikely to be an exception. Here, we demonstrate that for millennia, human populations have resided in the same narrow part of the climatic envelope available on the globe, characterized by a major mode around ∼11 °C to 15 °C mean annual temperature (MAT). Supporting the fundamental nature of this temperature niche, current production of crops and livestock is largely limited to the same conditions, and the same optimum has been found for agricultural and nonagricultural economic output of countries through analyses of year-to-year variation. We show that in a business-as-usual climate change scenario, the geographical position of this temperature niche is projected to shift more over the coming 50 y than it has moved since 6000 BP. Populations will not simply track the shifting climate, as adaptation in situ may address some of the challenges, and many other factors affect decisions to migrate. Nevertheless, in the absence of migration, one third of the global population is projected to experience a MAT >29 °C currently found in only 0.8% of the Earth’s land surface, mostly concentrated in the Sahara. As the potentially most affected regions are among the poorest in the world, where adaptive capacity is low, enhancing human development in those areas should be a priority alongside climate mitigation. Read more: https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/04/28/1910114117
The explanation the study authors give for why they don’t think humans thrive above 59F;
Why have humans remained concentrated so consistently in the same small part of the potential climate space? The full complex of mechanisms responsible for the patterns is obviously hard to unravel. The constancy of the core distribution of humans over millennia in the face of accumulating innovations is suggestive of a fundamental link to temperature. However, one could argue that the realized niche may merely reflect the ancient needs of agrarian production. Perhaps, people stayed and populations kept expanding in those places, even if the corresponding climate conditions had become irrelevant? Three lines of evidence suggest that this is unlikely, and that instead human thriving remains largely constrained to the observed realized temperature niche for causal reasons. First, an estimated 50% of the global population depends on smallholder farming (19), and much of the energy input in such systems comes from physical work carried out by farmers, which can be strongly affected by extreme temperatures (20). Second, high temperatures have strong impacts (21⇓–23), affecting not only physical labor capacity but also mood, behavior, and mental health through heat exhaustion and effects on cognitive and psychological performance (20, 24, 25). The third, and perhaps most striking, indication for causality behind the temperature optimum we find is that it coincides with the optimum for economic productivity found in a study of climate-related dynamics in 166 countries (12). To eliminate confounding effects of historical, cultural, and political differences, that study focused on the relation within countries between year-to-year differences in economic productivity and temperature anomalies. The ∼13 °C optimum in MAT they find holds globally across agricultural and nonagricultural activity in rich and poor countries. Thus, based on an entirely different set of data, that economic study independently points to the same temperature optimum we infer. Read more: Same link as above
My view, this kind of study is what happens when a bunch of scientists based in temperate climates didn’t enjoy their last Caribbean holiday.
There is substantial evidence the “optimum” described in the study is a historical accident. There are plenty of cultures like Thailand and India, which built large populous nations with big cities, even conquered empires, without the “benefits” of a temperate climate, not to mention wealthy modern day tropical nations like Singapore, Malaysia and increasingly Indonesia.
Jakarta, Indonesia. Another city suffering the ravages of existence in a climate which is warmer than the human optimum climate. By Rizky Maharani – Own work , CC BY-SA 4.0, Link
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wattsupwiththat--2020-05-04--Claim: Dengue Spreading in South America Because Climate Change

“ The New Humanitarian ” claims global warming has caused deadly rise in Dengue Fever cases in South America ; but they admit mosquito spraying programme cutbacks might have played a role .
Is global warming driving the spread of dengue across Latin America ?
In 1970 , the tropical disease was only a danger in nine countries .
Now , it afflicts over 100. International scientists have for years warned that climate change is likely to lead to an increase in epidemics caused by pathogens and viruses .
While there ’ s no evidence to link the COVID-19 pandemic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of dengue fever in Latin America are currently adding credence to the theory .
Just as the novel coronavirus takes hold in the region , severe dengue epidemics are already raging in Peru , Colombia , Bolivia , Brazil , Nicaragua , and Venezuela .
And Honduras experienced a record-setting outbreak that finally slowed late last year .
Adding to the concern is the fact that South America is experiencing dengue in temperate mountainous regions of the Andes that have no previous history of the once-tropical disease .
Scientists say global warming is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Simón Hasbun , a doctor in the Honduran city of San Pedro Sula who was part of the effort to address the dengue epidemic , described a public health system in a state of near collapse after years of government neglect and corruption .
Hasbun said doctors were woefully ill-equipped to battle an epidemic .
“ In my town , the local government stopped fumigating for mosquitoes .
They still sent the fumigation trucks out empty to make it look like they were addressing the problem , but they weren ’ t spraying @ @ @ @ @ @ @ show !
” “ And now we are confronting coronavirus , ” she added .
“ No one is prepared for this.
” The WHO and the IPCC have been warning for years that climate change is altering the global distribution of species – such as mosquitoes – that serve as vectors for infectious diseases .

Guest essay by Eric Worrall
“The New Humanitarian” claims global warming has caused deadly rise in Dengue Fever cases in South America; but they admit mosquito spraying programme cutbacks might have played a role.
27 April 2020 Is global warming driving the spread of dengue across Latin America? In 1970, the tropical disease was only a danger in nine countries. Now, it afflicts over 100. International scientists have for years warned that climate change is likely to lead to an increase in epidemics caused by pathogens and viruses. While there’s no evidence to link the COVID-19 pandemic to global warming, major ongoing outbreaks of dengue fever in Latin America are currently adding credence to the theory. … Just as the novel coronavirus takes hold in the region, severe dengue epidemics are already raging in Peru, Colombia, Bolivia, Brazil, Nicaragua, and Venezuela. And Honduras experienced a record-setting outbreak that finally slowed late last year. Adding to the concern is the fact that South America is experiencing dengue in temperate mountainous regions of the Andes that have no previous history of the once-tropical disease. Scientists say global warming is one of the main drivers. … Jihan Simón Hasbun, a doctor in the Honduran city of San Pedro Sula who was part of the effort to address the dengue epidemic, described a public health system in a state of near collapse after years of government neglect and corruption. … Hasbun said doctors were woefully ill-equipped to battle an epidemic. “In my town, the local government stopped fumigating for mosquitoes. They still sent the fumigation trucks out empty to make it look like they were addressing the problem, but they weren’t spraying anything. It was all just a show!” “And now we are confronting coronavirus,” she added. “No one is prepared for this.” The WHO and the IPCC have been warning for years that climate change is altering the global distribution of species – such as mosquitoes – that serve as vectors for infectious diseases. … Read more: https://www.thenewhumanitarian.org/feature/2020/04/27/dengue-fever-latin-america-climate-change
Should South America build more wind turbines? Or should they make more effort to kill mosquitoes?
Even the Guardian once admitted that killing mosquitos might be the solution to controlling mosquito borne disease.
DDT row: Pesticide that damages the environment has saved millions of lives Sarah Boseley, Health Correspondent Mon 30 Aug 1999 10.56 AEST Malaria, a scourge of much of the developing world, kills some 2.7m people every year, most of them children under five and pregnant women, while up to 500m become ill, cannot work and need care. A few decades ago, world health specialists talked of eradicating malaria. Now they talk only of trying to regain control. Malaria is endemic in more than half the world’s countries. In the time it takes to name the disease, 10 children will contract it and begin fighting for their lives. One child in four who dies in Africa has succumbed to malaria. DDT has a bad name. It is a pesticide that damages the environment and has been widely used in agriculture. Since Rachel Carson exposed its depredations in her book Silent Spring in 1962, environmentalists have campaigned to curb its use. In the west they have been successful. Advertisement But in the developing world it has saved millions of lives. Sprayed inside houses, it kills or more often repels the mosquitoes whose bite transmits malaria, and it is cheap. Specialists argue that it does not migrate out of doors, and if we lose it through a global ban in 2007 millions who could have been protected will die. … Read more: https://www.theguardian.com/world/1999/aug/30/sarahboseley
Unusually warm wet weather undoubtably helps mosquitoes, but mosquito borne diseases don’t need global warming to thrive.
In the the Little Ice Age, one of the deadliest threats to public health in Northern Europe was Malaria.
Endemic malaria: an ‘indoor’ disease in northern Europe. Historical data analysed Lena Huldén, Larry Huldén & Kari Heliövaara Malaria Journal volume 4, Article number: 19 (2005) Cite this article Abstract Background Endemic northern malaria reached 68°N latitude in Europe during the 19th century, where the summer mean temperature only irregularly exceeded 16°C, the lower limit needed for sporogony of Plasmodium vivax. Because of the available historical material and little use of quinine, Finland was suitable for an analysis of endemic malaria and temperature. … Read more: https://malariajournal.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/1475-2875-4-19
South America might choose to fight Dengue epidemics by focussing more resources on combatting global warming, but I can’t help thinking that ensuring mosquito spraying programmes are in order might help. And perhaps a little DDT spraying, at least in the worst afflicted regions.
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wattsupwiththat--2020-05-04--Forecasting Bird Migration with Weather Radar and Models

We are now in the midst of the big bird migration time of the year and weather radar can help documents the huge flux of birds overhead .
But even more fascinating , we can skillfully predict bird migration using numerical weather prediction .
One of my favorite sites to check out bird migration is BirdCast , run by the Cornell Laboratory of Ornithology .
I really appreciate this group and as an undergrad at Cornell I frequently visited their Sapsucker Woods Wildlife Sanctuary .
One of the wonderful things they have on their website is real-time bird migration maps @ @ @ @ @ @ @ radar ( see below ) .
Turns out that weather radar is a very effective tool for tracking birds , particularly when there is not much precipitation ( when the National Weather Radars are in clear air mode ) .
The map below provides an example : a real-time snapshot of bird migration at 12:50 AM PDT early this ( Saturday ) morning .
The colors shows the intensity of bird migration and the orange arrows provide the direction of migration ( which can be determined from the Doppler weather radar signal !
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ are moving northward and the Pacific Northwest is an active migration route .
The largest migration is from Texas to Wisconsin .
By the way , the units of this map is THOUSANDS of bird per km line per hour .
That is a lot of birds !
To confirm the bird invasion , here is the composite radar image the night before ( 1:38 AM on May 1st ) .
Wow .
There was very little precipitation that night , so virtually all of this is birds .
Keep in mind that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ( such as east of the Cascade crest ) .
You note lack of echos offshore…our feathered friends prefer to stay over land !
Our bird friends prefer to fly at night , and the Cornell migration graphic at 9:40 PM Eastern Time yesterday shows this , with the red line indicating the location of sunset at that time .
Very few birds while the sun is up ( west of the line ) , lots of birds to the east of the sunset line .
But this site has even more !
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Using decades of radar information to provide migration ground truth , they correlated bird migration activity with forecat weather parameters ( from NWS prediction models ) , day of year , and much more , using a machine learning algorithm .
This approach is based on the work of Van Doren and Horton ( Science Magazine , 2018 ) .
To illustrate , here is the migration prediction for tonight ( Saturday-Sunday ) , which includes the amount of forecast precipitation as well .
Less birds tonight..and that has to do with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bird forecast research noted above ( Van Doren and Horton ) found the bird migration correlates best with temperature ( more migration with warmer temperatures ) , with precipitation also discouraging our feathered friends .
The strong front moving through today will result in both cooler temperatures and showers .
Thus , our migrating bird visitors will take a well deserved rest this evening .
Finally , I should mention that there is all kinds of fascinating information in that Van Doren an Horton papers , such as the annual variation in bird @ @ @ @ @ @ @ weather radar data ( see below ) .
Peak migration is in early-May , with a huge ramp-up in April…so we are very near the peak now .
Thus , watching the radar now is of particular interest for all bird lovers .
So during the next mild night this month , look up and imagine the thousands of birds that are moving northward above your head .
Kind of reassuring during these difficult times .

From The Cliff Mass Weather Blog
We are now in the midst of the big bird migration time of the year and weather radar can help documents the huge flux of birds overhead.
But even more fascinating, we can skillfully predict bird migration using numerical weather prediction.
One of my favorite sites to check out bird migration is BirdCast, run by the Cornell Laboratory of Ornithology. I really appreciate this group and as an undergrad at Cornell I frequently visited their Sapsucker Woods Wildlife Sanctuary.
One of the wonderful things they have on their website is real-time bird migration maps based on the clever use of weather radar (see below). Turns out that weather radar is a very effective tool for tracking birds, particularly when there is not much precipitation (when the National Weather Radars are in clear air mode).
The map below provides an example: a real-time snapshot of bird migration at 12:50 AM PDT early this (Saturday) morning. The colors shows the intensity of bird migration and the orange arrows provide the direction of migration (which can be determined from the Doppler weather radar signal!). Not surprisingly, most birds are moving northward and the Pacific Northwest is an active migration route. The largest migration is from Texas to Wisconsin. By the way, the units of this map is THOUSANDS of bird per km line per hour. That is a lot of birds!
To confirm the bird invasion, here is the composite radar image the night before (1:38 AM on May 1st). Wow. There was very little precipitation that night, so virtually all of this is birds. Keep in mind that there are major gaps in weather coverage (such as east of the Cascade crest). You note lack of echos offshore…our feathered friends prefer to stay over land!
Our bird friends prefer to fly at night, and the Cornell migration graphic at 9:40 PM Eastern Time yesterday shows this, with the red line indicating the location of sunset at that time. Very few birds while the sun is up (west of the line), lots of birds to the east of the sunset line.
But this site has even more! It include forecasts of bird migration activity. Using decades of radar information to provide migration ground truth, they correlated bird migration activity with forecat weather parameters (from NWS prediction models), day of year, and much more, using a machine learning algorithm. This approach is based on the work of Van Doren and Horton (Science Magazine, 2018) . To illustrate, here is the migration prediction for tonight (Saturday-Sunday), which includes the amount of forecast precipitation as well.
Less birds tonight..and that has to do with the change in the weather. This bird forecast research noted above (Van Doren and Horton) found the bird migration correlates best with temperature (more migration with warmer temperatures), with precipitation also discouraging our feathered friends. The strong front moving through today will result in both cooler temperatures and showers. Thus, our migrating bird visitors will take a well deserved rest this evening.
Finally, I should mention that there is all kinds of fascinating information in that Van Doren an Horton papers, such as the annual variation in bird migration over the U.S. based on the weather radar data (see below). Peak migration is in early-May, with a huge ramp-up in April…so we are very near the peak now. Thus, watching the radar now is of particular interest for all bird lovers.
So during the next mild night this month, look up and imagine the thousands of birds that are moving northward above your head. Kind of reassuring during these difficult times.
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wattsupwiththat--2020-05-05--First results from NASA’s ICESat-2 mission map 16 years of melting ice sheets

Using the most advanced Earth-observing laser instrument NASA has ever flown in space , a team of scientists led by the University of Washington has made precise measurements of how the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have changed over 16 years .
In a new study published in the journal Science on April 30 , scientists found the net loss of ice from Antarctica , along with Greenland ’ s shrinking ice sheet , has been responsible for 0.55 inches ( 14 millimeters ) of sea level rise to the global ocean since 2003 .
In Antarctica , sea level @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the floating ice shelves melting in a warming ocean .
The ice shelves help hold back the flow of land-based ice into the ocean .
The findings come from the Ice , Cloud and land Elevation Satellite 2 ( ICESat-2 ) , which was launched into orbit in fall 2018 and began taking detailed global elevation measurements , including over Earth ’ s frozen regions .
By comparing the new data with measurements taken by the original ICESat from 2003 to 2009 , researchers have generated a comprehensive portrait of the complexities @ @ @ @ @ @ @ into the future of Greenland and Antarctica .
“ If you watch a glacier or ice sheet for a month , or a year , you ’ re not going to learn much about what the climate is doing to it , ” said lead author Benjamin Smith , a glaciologist at the University of Washington .
“ We now have a 16-year span between ICESat and ICESat-2 and can be much more confident that the changes we ’ re seeing in the ice have to do with the long-term changes in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ remarkable tool for making these measurements .
We ’ re seeing high-quality measurements that carpet both ice sheets , which let us make a detailed and precise comparison with the ICESat data.
” Previous studies of ice loss or gain often analyze data from multiple satellites and airborne missions .
The new study takes a single type of measurement – height as measured by an instrument that bounces laser pulses off the ice surface – providing the most detailed and accurate picture of ice sheet change to date .
The researchers took tracks @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tracks of ICESat-2 measurements from 2019 .
Where the two data sets intersected – tens of millions of sites – they ran the data through computer programs that accounted for the snow density and other factors , and then calculated the mass of ice lost or gained .
“ The new analysis reveals the ice sheets ’ response to changes in climate with unprecedented detail , revealing clues as to why and how the ice sheets are reacting the way they are ” , said co-author Alex Gardner , a glaciologist at NASA @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , California .
The study found that Greenland ’ s ice sheet lost an average of 200 gigatons of ice per year , and Antarctica ’ s ice sheet lost an average of 118 gigatons of ice per year .
One gigaton of ice is enough to fill 400,000 Olympic-sized swimming pools .
Of the sea level rise that resulted from ice sheet meltwater and iceberg calving , about two-thirds of it came Greenland , the other third from Antarctica , Smith and his colleagues found .
“ It was amazing to see @ @ @ @ @ @ @ right out of the gate , ” said co-author Tom Neumann at NASA ’ s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt , Maryland .
“ These first results looking at land ice confirm the consensus from other research groups , but they also let us look at the details of change in individual glaciers and ice shelves at the same time.
” In Greenland , there was a significant amount of thinning of coastal glaciers , Smith said .
The Kangerlussuaq and Jakobshavn glaciers , for example , have lost 14 to 20 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of elevation per year .
Warmer summer temperatures have melted ice from the surface of the glaciers and ice sheets , and in some places warmer ocean water erodes away the ice at their fronts .
In Antarctica , the dense tracks of ICESat-2 measurements showed that the ice sheet is getting thicker in parts of the continent ’ s interior , likely as a result of increased snowfall , Smith said .
But the loss of ice from the continent ’ s margins , especially in West Antarctica and the Antarctic Peninsula @ @ @ @ @ @ @ interior .
In those places , the ocean is also likely to blame .
“ In West Antarctica , we ’ re seeing a lot of glaciers thinning very rapidly , ” Smith said .
“ There are ice shelves at the downstream end of those glaciers , floating on water .
And those ice shelves are thinning , letting more ice flow out into the ocean as the warmer water erodes the ice.
” These ice shelves , which rise and fall with the tides , can be difficult to measure , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ glaciologist at Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University of California , San Diego .
Some of them have rough surfaces , with crevasses and ridges , but the precision and high resolution of ICESat-2 allows researchers to measure overall changes , without worrying about these features skewing the results .
This is one of the first times that researchers have measured loss of the floating ice shelves around Antarctica simultaneously with loss of the continent ’ s ice sheet .
Ice that melts from ice shelves doesn ’ t raise sea levels @ @ @ @ @ @ @ – just like an ice cube in a full cup of water doesn ’ t overflow the glass .
But the ice shelves do provide stability for the glaciers and ice sheets behind them .
“ It ’ s like an architectural buttress that holds up a cathedral , ” Fricker said .
“ The ice shelves hold the ice sheet up .
If you take away the ice shelves , or even if you thin them , you ’ re reducing that buttressing force , so the grounded ice can flow faster.
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ West Antarctica , where many of the continent ’ s fastest-moving glaciers are located , are losing mass .
Patterns of thinning show that Thwaites and Crosson ice shelves have thinned the most , an average of about five meters ( 16 feet ) and three meters ( 10 feet ) of ice per year , respectively .
The study was funded by NASA .
Other co-authors are Johan Nilsson and Fernando Paolo at NASA ’ s Jet Propulsion Laboratory ; Brooke Medley , Thorsten Markus and H. Jay Zwally at NASA ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Holschuh at Amherst College ; Susheel Adusumilli at the University of California , San Diego ; Kelly Brunt at the University of Maryland ; Bea Csatho at the University of Buffalo ; Kaitlin Harbeck at KBR ; and Matthew Siegfried at the Colorado School of Mines .

University of Washington
IMAGE: This shows the amount of ice gained or lost by Antarctica between 2003 and 2019. Dark reds and purples show large average rates of ice loss near the coasts, while… view more Credit: Smith et al./Science
Using the most advanced Earth-observing laser instrument NASA has ever flown in space, a team of scientists led by the University of Washington has made precise measurements of how the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have changed over 16 years.
In a new study published in the journal Science on April 30, scientists found the net loss of ice from Antarctica, along with Greenland’s shrinking ice sheet, has been responsible for 0.55 inches (14 millimeters) of sea level rise to the global ocean since 2003. In Antarctica, sea level rise is being driven by the loss of the floating ice shelves melting in a warming ocean. The ice shelves help hold back the flow of land-based ice into the ocean.
The findings come from the Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite 2 (ICESat-2), which was launched into orbit in fall 2018 and began taking detailed global elevation measurements, including over Earth’s frozen regions. By comparing the new data with measurements taken by the original ICESat from 2003 to 2009, researchers have generated a comprehensive portrait of the complexities of ice sheet change – and insights into the future of Greenland and Antarctica.
“If you watch a glacier or ice sheet for a month, or a year, you’re not going to learn much about what the climate is doing to it,” said lead author Benjamin Smith, a glaciologist at the University of Washington. “We now have a 16-year span between ICESat and ICESat-2 and can be much more confident that the changes we’re seeing in the ice have to do with the long-term changes in the climate. And ICESat-2 is a really remarkable tool for making these measurements. We’re seeing high-quality measurements that carpet both ice sheets, which let us make a detailed and precise comparison with the ICESat data.”
Previous studies of ice loss or gain often analyze data from multiple satellites and airborne missions. The new study takes a single type of measurement – height as measured by an instrument that bounces laser pulses off the ice surface – providing the most detailed and accurate picture of ice sheet change to date.
The researchers took tracks of ICESat measurements and overlaid the denser tracks of ICESat-2 measurements from 2019. Where the two data sets intersected – tens of millions of sites – they ran the data through computer programs that accounted for the snow density and other factors, and then calculated the mass of ice lost or gained.
“The new analysis reveals the ice sheets’ response to changes in climate with unprecedented detail, revealing clues as to why and how the ice sheets are reacting the way they are”, said co-author Alex Gardner, a glaciologist at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California.
The study found that Greenland’s ice sheet lost an average of 200 gigatons of ice per year, and Antarctica’s ice sheet lost an average of 118 gigatons of ice per year. One gigaton of ice is enough to fill 400,000 Olympic-sized swimming pools.
Of the sea level rise that resulted from ice sheet meltwater and iceberg calving, about two-thirds of it came Greenland, the other third from Antarctica, Smith and his colleagues found.
“It was amazing to see how good the ICESat-2 data looked, right out of the gate,” said co-author Tom Neumann at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland. “These first results looking at land ice confirm the consensus from other research groups, but they also let us look at the details of change in individual glaciers and ice shelves at the same time.”
In Greenland, there was a significant amount of thinning of coastal glaciers, Smith said. The Kangerlussuaq and Jakobshavn glaciers, for example, have lost 14 to 20 feet (4 to 6 meters) of elevation per year. Warmer summer temperatures have melted ice from the surface of the glaciers and ice sheets, and in some places warmer ocean water erodes away the ice at their fronts.
In Antarctica, the dense tracks of ICESat-2 measurements showed that the ice sheet is getting thicker in parts of the continent’s interior, likely as a result of increased snowfall, Smith said. But the loss of ice from the continent’s margins, especially in West Antarctica and the Antarctic Peninsula, far outweighs any gains in the interior. In those places, the ocean is also likely to blame.
“In West Antarctica, we’re seeing a lot of glaciers thinning very rapidly,” Smith said. “There are ice shelves at the downstream end of those glaciers, floating on water. And those ice shelves are thinning, letting more ice flow out into the ocean as the warmer water erodes the ice.”
These ice shelves, which rise and fall with the tides, can be difficult to measure, said co-author Helen Amanda Fricker, a glaciologist at Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University of California, San Diego. Some of them have rough surfaces, with crevasses and ridges, but the precision and high resolution of ICESat-2 allows researchers to measure overall changes, without worrying about these features skewing the results.
This is one of the first times that researchers have measured loss of the floating ice shelves around Antarctica simultaneously with loss of the continent’s ice sheet.
Ice that melts from ice shelves doesn’t raise sea levels, since it’s already floating – just like an ice cube in a full cup of water doesn’t overflow the glass. But the ice shelves do provide stability for the glaciers and ice sheets behind them.
“It’s like an architectural buttress that holds up a cathedral,” Fricker said. “The ice shelves hold the ice sheet up. If you take away the ice shelves, or even if you thin them, you’re reducing that buttressing force, so the grounded ice can flow faster.”
The researchers found ice shelves in West Antarctica, where many of the continent’s fastest-moving glaciers are located, are losing mass. Patterns of thinning show that Thwaites and Crosson ice shelves have thinned the most, an average of about five meters (16 feet) and three meters (10 feet) of ice per year, respectively.
###
The study was funded by NASA. Other co-authors are Johan Nilsson and Fernando Paolo at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory; Brooke Medley, Thorsten Markus and H. Jay Zwally at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center; Nicholas Holschuh at Amherst College; Susheel Adusumilli at the University of California, San Diego; Kelly Brunt at the University of Maryland; Bea Csatho at the University of Buffalo; Kaitlin Harbeck at KBR; and Matthew Siegfried at the Colorado School of Mines.
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wattsupwiththat--2020-05-05--Rev. Jesse Jackson Bucks Environmentalists, Pushes Natural Gas Pipeline As Black Neighborhoods Strug

Rev. Jesse Jackson Bucks Environmentalists, Pushes Natural Gas Pipeline As Black Neighborhoods Struggle With Sky High Energy Prices

Rev .
Jesse Jackson is bucking many of the environmentalists who believe natural gas production perpetuates a world in which climate change is disproportionately hurting black communities .
Jackson is prodding local , state and federal officials in Illinois to okay the construction of a $ 8.2 million , 30-mile natural-gas pipeline built for a community , Axios noted in a report Monday addressing the reverend ’ s contrarian position .
The Pembroke , Illinois pipeline would shuttle natural gas into an area of the state that suffers from high energy prices , according to Jackson .
“ When we @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that ’ s fine by me , I support that , ” Jackson told Axios in February as the issue began heating up .
“ But in the meantime , you can not put the black farmers on hold until that day comes.
” Pembroke residents have a median income of $ 28,922 and rely on a combination of propane , wood stoves and space heaters for heat during Illinois winters , media reports show .
( RELATED : Civil Rights Leaders Rail Against Enviro Activists , Say Natural Gas Benefits Black Communities @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a city clerk in the area — told Axios that she pays between $ 500 and $ 800 to heat her home over a two month period .
Jackson got involved due in part to a request from Mark Hodge , mayor of Hopkins Park , a town in the area .
The mayor told Axios that businesses refuse to come to the area because local energy prices are too high .
“ It ’ s not on my radar at this point , not to say in the future it would not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ change .
“ My main concern is cutting our energy costs out here.
” Customers have to pay for a some of the cost of delivering such pipeline access under current regulations .
Pembroke residents must pay $ 3.2 million of the estimated total $ 8.2 million pipeline extension , according to Nicor Gas , the company behind the project .
Each household would have to pay more than $ 8,000 upfront for access , Axios notes .
Illinois ’ s state legislature is considering a bill designating Pembroke as a “ designated @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Nicor Gas to pay the entire cost .
Jackson , Rev .
Al Sharpton , and National Urban League President Marc Morial have said in the past that they oppose an abrupt move away from fracking , a technique producers use to extract natural gas from shale .
They said the technique for producing natural gas helps black people who struggle with high energy prices .
Morial , Jackson and Sharpton ’ s comments came after the National Association for the Advancement of Colored People warned its local chapters in 2019 that oil @ @ @ @ @ @ @ into supporting their products .
Nearly one in five households are forced to go without food to pay their energy bill , the Energy Information Administration noted in a 2018 report .

From The Daily Caller
Chris White Tech Reporter May 04, 2020 1:06 PM ET
Rev. Jesse Jackson is bucking many of the environmentalists who believe natural gas production perpetuates a world in which climate change is disproportionately hurting black communities.
Jackson is prodding local, state and federal officials in Illinois to okay the construction of a $8.2 million, 30-mile natural-gas pipeline built for a community, Axios noted in a report Monday addressing the reverend’s contrarian position.
The Pembroke, Illinois pipeline would shuttle natural gas into an area of the state that suffers from high energy prices, according to Jackson.
“When we move to another form of energy, that’s fine by me, I support that,” Jackson told Axios in February as the issue began heating up. “But in the meantime, you cannot put the black farmers on hold until that day comes.”
Pembroke residents have a median income of $28,922 and rely on a combination of propane, wood stoves and space heaters for heat during Illinois winters, media reports show. (RELATED: Civil Rights Leaders Rail Against Enviro Activists, Say Natural Gas Benefits Black Communities)
Another resident — Cathy Vanderdyz, a city clerk in the area — told Axios that she pays between $500 and $800 to heat her home over a two month period. Jackson got involved due in part to a request from Mark Hodge, mayor of Hopkins Park, a town in the area.
The mayor told Axios that businesses refuse to come to the area because local energy prices are too high.
“It’s not on my radar at this point, not to say in the future it would not be,” Hodges said of climate change. “My main concern is cutting our energy costs out here.” Customers have to pay for a some of the cost of delivering such pipeline access under current regulations.
Pembroke residents must pay $3.2 million of the estimated total $8.2 million pipeline extension, according to Nicor Gas, the company behind the project. Each household would have to pay more than $8,000 upfront for access, Axios notes. Illinois’s state legislature is considering a bill designating Pembroke as a “designated hardship area,” which would allow Nicor Gas to pay the entire cost.
Jackson, Rev. Al Sharpton, and National Urban League President Marc Morial have said in the past that they oppose an abrupt move away from fracking, a technique producers use to extract natural gas from shale. They said the technique for producing natural gas helps black people who struggle with high energy prices.
Morial, Jackson and Sharpton’s comments came after the National Association for the Advancement of Colored People warned its local chapters in 2019 that oil companies are supposedly trying to manipulate them into supporting their products.
Nearly one in five households are forced to go without food to pay their energy bill, the Energy Information Administration noted in a 2018 report.
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wattsupwiththat--2020-05-06--Mars Magnetic Dynamo: New Timeline

Mars Magnetic Dynamo: New Timeline

It ’ s very well established that in the distant past , Mars had enough surface water to erode and deposit a wide range of fluvial sedimentary features , including mudstone ( a pretty good indication of past life ) .
In order for Mars to have had liquid water at the surface , it would have had to have had a much thicker and warmer atmosphere .
It has long been thought that Mars lost its atmosphere after its magnetic dynamo shut down and it was blown away by the solar wind .
When did the Martian dynamo die @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by rburnham Current thinking among Mars scientists holds that the Red Planet ’ s dynamo — the geo-engine in its molten core which generates a global magnetic field — was active soon after the planet formed , but turned off about 4 billion years ago .
Spacecraft in orbit have detected and mapped magnetic fields in parts of the ancient southern highlands and elsewhere .
While these show no active global dynamo pattern , they indicate that Mars had an internally generated magnetic field at one time .
Yet the field disappeared at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and Isidis impact basins — about 4 billion years old — contain no magnetic signatures .
These would have been printed into the impact-melted rocks if a global field had been present when the basins formed .
But is this ancient age in fact correct ?
New work by a team of scientists led by Colleen Milbury ( Purdue University ) and published in the Journal of Geophysical Research suggests the dynamo shutdown happened more recently .
If true , this means that Mars kept its magnetic field longer — and this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as well .
A magnetic field strong enough to leave traces in once-molten rocks would deflect most energetic solar radiation and ionizing particles , thus preventing them from eroding the atmosphere .
But when the dynamo died , the Martian atmosphere began to die with it .
Today ’ s Mars has no global magnetic field , only a thin atmosphere , and solar radiation and particles can strike the surface unhindered , making conditions hostile for most forms of life .
Researchers at the University of British Columbia have now proposed that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ time periods , approximately 4.5 and 3.7 billion years ago ( Ga ) .
UBC researchers establish new timeline for ancient magnetic field on Mars May 1 , 2020 | For more information , contact Erik Rolfsen Mars had a global magnetic field much earlier—and much later—in the planet ’ s history than scientists have previously known .
A planet ’ s global magnetic field arises from what scientists call a dynamo : a flow of molten metal within the planet ’ s core that produces an electrical current .
On Earth , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ point north .
But Mars ’ dynamo has been extinct for billions of years .
New findings from UBC researchers working with colleagues in the U.S. and France , published today in Science Advances , bring us closer to knowing the precise timing and duration of Mars ’ dynamo .
The new data for this study come from MAVEN , the Mars Atmosphere and Volatile Evolution satellite .
Earlier data about magnetism on Mars had been gathered by the Mars Global Surveyor satellite which orbited the planet between 1999 and 2006 , mostly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ MAVEN , launched in 2013 , operates as close as ~135 kilometres from the surface and picks up weaker signals that MGS could not detect .
MAVEN ’ s ability to pick up signals from smaller features on and near the surface helps researchers distinguish whether the magnetism is coming from those , or from older rocks buried more deeply in the planet ’ s crust .
These new insights have researchers wondering what could be revealed if they get even closer .
Mittelholz noted that this study focused on two particular features @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with stories to tell .
In the future , exploration could progress from satellites to drones or balloons , providing even more detailed data .
The second active dynamo phase at 3.7 Ga would be coincident with the Early Hesperian Period : Pre-Noachian Represents the interval from the accretion and differentiation of the planet about 4.5 billion years ago ( Gya ) to the formation of the Hellas impact basin , between 4.1 and 3.8 Gya .
[ 10 ] Most of the geologic record of this interval has been erased by subsequent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ crustal dichotomy is thought to have formed during this time , along with the Argyre and Isidis basins .
Noachian Period ( named after Noachis Terra ) : Formation of the oldest extant surfaces of Mars between 4.1 and about 3.7 billion years ago ( Gya ) .
Noachian-aged surfaces are scarred by many large impact craters .
The Tharsis bulge is thought to have formed during the Noachian , along with extensive erosion by liquid water producing river valley networks .
Large lakes or oceans may have been present .
Hesperian Period @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 3.7 to approximately 3.0 Gya .
The Hesperian Period is marked by the formation of extensive lava plains .
The formation of Olympus Mons likely began during this period .
[ 11 ] Catastrophic releases of water carved extensive outflow channels around Chryse Planitia and elswhere .
Ephemeral lakes or seas formed in the northern lowlands .
Amazonian Period ( named after Amazonis Planitia ) : 3.0 Gya to present .
Amazonian regions have few meteorite impact craters but are otherwise quite varied .
Lava flows , glacial/periglacial activity , and minor releases @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The date of the Hesperian/Amazonian boundary is particularly uncertain and could range anywhere from 3.0 to 1.5 Gya .
[ 12 ] Basically , the Hesperian is thought of as a transitional period between the end of heavy bombardment and the cold , dry Mars seen today .
The Yellowknife Bay formation is thought to have been deposited during the Early Hesperian Period in a “ strikingly Earth-like habitable environment.
” At Yellowknife Bay there is no hint of the strongly acidic conditions that have been thought to especially describe the planet @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , sedimentation , and habitability ( 74 , 83 , 91 ) .
The record of aqueous activity at Yellowknife Bay is likely prolonged and complex , involving several stages of diagenesis , including clay formation , that culminate with precipitation of calcium sulfate salts in veins , but without attendant indicators of acidic waters such as iron sul-fates .
The simplest interpretation of the sequence of diagenetic events would involve progressive desiccation of mildly saline , pH neutral waters—a very Earth-like scenario ( 92 ) .
Such conditions have been envisaged for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 91 ) , but it is only recently that they have been considered viable for a younger age ( 7 , 93 , 94 ) .
The surprising result is that the stratigraphy of Yellowknife Bay may not only preserve evidence of a habitable environment , but one that is relatively young by Martian standards .
In the most conservative scenario allowed by geologic mapping , the Yellowknife Bay formation represents part of the older fill of Gale crater , and therefore roughly Early Hesperian in age ( 6 ) , perhaps overlapping @ @ @ @ @ @ @ formation elsewhere on Mars .
This would indicate that times of sustained surface water , neutral pH , and authigenic clay formation extended later into Mars ’ history .
The potentially young age of clay formation ( and habitability ) does not invalidate the general trend that most rocks that interacted with water early in Mars ’ history produced clays , and those that interacted later produced sulfates .
However , much like Earth ’ s time-dependent records of iron formation ( 95 , 96 ) and carbonates ( 97 , 98 ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ understand those special conditions which allow a distinctive aqueous environment to persist for broad spans of geologic time , or to recur when the favorable conditions again emerge .
Curiosity ’ s detection of a relatively young , and strikingly Earth-like habitable environment at Gale crater underscores the biologic potential of relatively young fluvio-lacustrine environments .
Mittelholz , A. , C. L. Johnson , J. M. Feinberg , B. Langlais , R. J. Phillips .
Timing of the martian dynamo : New constraints for a core field 4.5 and 3.7 Ga ago .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ 18 ) : eaba0513 DOI : 10.1126/sciadv.aba0513

Guest “remote astro-geology” by David Middleton
It’s very well established that in the distant past, Mars had enough surface water to erode and deposit a wide range of fluvial sedimentary features, including mudstone (a pretty good indication of past life). In order for Mars to have had liquid water at the surface, it would have had to have had a much thicker and warmer atmosphere. It has long been thought that Mars lost its atmosphere after its magnetic dynamo shut down and it was blown away by the solar wind.
When did the Martian dynamo die?
Posted on November 7, 2012 by rburnham Current thinking among Mars scientists holds that the Red Planet’s dynamo — the geo-engine in its molten core which generates a global magnetic field — was active soon after the planet formed, but turned off about 4 billion years ago. Spacecraft in orbit have detected and mapped magnetic fields in parts of the ancient southern highlands and elsewhere. While these show no active global dynamo pattern, they indicate that Mars had an internally generated magnetic field at one time. Yet the field disappeared at some point because the Hellas, Argyre, and Isidis impact basins — about 4 billion years old — contain no magnetic signatures. These would have been printed into the impact-melted rocks if a global field had been present when the basins formed. But is this ancient age in fact correct? New work by a team of scientists led by Colleen Milbury (Purdue University) and published in the Journal of Geophysical Research suggests the dynamo shutdown happened more recently. If true, this means that Mars kept its magnetic field longer — and this would have protected the atmosphere for longer as well. A magnetic field strong enough to leave traces in once-molten rocks would deflect most energetic solar radiation and ionizing particles, thus preventing them from eroding the atmosphere. But when the dynamo died, the Martian atmosphere began to die with it. Today’s Mars has no global magnetic field, only a thin atmosphere, and solar radiation and particles can strike the surface unhindered, making conditions hostile for most forms of life. […] Red Planet Report
Researchers at the University of British Columbia have now proposed that the dynamo was active during two geologic time periods, approximately 4.5 and 3.7 billion years ago (Ga).
UBC researchers establish new timeline for ancient magnetic field on Mars SCIENCE, HEALTH & TECHNOLOGY May 1, 2020 | For more information, contact Erik Rolfsen Mars had a global magnetic field much earlier—and much later—in the planet’s history than scientists have previously known. A planet’s global magnetic field arises from what scientists call a dynamo: a flow of molten metal within the planet’s core that produces an electrical current. On Earth, the dynamo is what makes compass needles point north. But Mars’ dynamo has been extinct for billions of years. New findings from UBC researchers working with colleagues in the U.S. and France, published today in Science Advances, bring us closer to knowing the precise timing and duration of Mars’ dynamo. […] The new data for this study come from MAVEN, the Mars Atmosphere and Volatile Evolution satellite. Earlier data about magnetism on Mars had been gathered by the Mars Global Surveyor satellite which orbited the planet between 1999 and 2006, mostly at 400 kilometres above the surface. MAVEN, launched in 2013, operates as close as ~135 kilometres from the surface and picks up weaker signals that MGS could not detect. MAVEN’s ability to pick up signals from smaller features on and near the surface helps researchers distinguish whether the magnetism is coming from those, or from older rocks buried more deeply in the planet’s crust. These new insights have researchers wondering what could be revealed if they get even closer. Mittelholz noted that this study focused on two particular features, but craters remain all over Mars with stories to tell. In the future, exploration could progress from satellites to drones or balloons, providing even more detailed data. University of British Columbia
“Fig. 1 Dynamo timing scenarios.An early dynamo “[a]” predating Hellas, Isidis, and Argyre (1). The basin age range is shown according to the isochron (cyan) and N(50) (blue) age (47). Early dynamo termination by 4.13 Ga “[b]” is based on magnetic field signatures of a larger basin population (7, 8). The age of magnetization of meteorite ALH84001 [3.9 to 4.1 Ga; (48)] overlaps the early dynamo time frame “[c].” A late dynamo “[d]” postdating the major basins (9–13). New constraints from MAVEN data (stars) over the BB, around the Utopia basin, and LP that indicate a dynamo at ~4.5 and ~3.7 Ga. The timing of Utopia is uncertain (dotted line). The map displays Mars Observer Laser Altimeter topography (49) with BB, Utopia, and LP marked (stars).” Mittelholz, et al., 2020
The second active dynamo phase at 3.7 Ga would be coincident with the Early Hesperian Period:
Pre-Noachian Represents the interval from the accretion and differentiation of the planet about 4.5 billion years ago (Gya) to the formation of the Hellas impact basin, between 4.1 and 3.8 Gya.[10] Most of the geologic record of this interval has been erased by subsequent erosion and high impact rates. The crustal dichotomy is thought to have formed during this time, along with the Argyre and Isidis basins. Noachian Period (named after Noachis Terra): Formation of the oldest extant surfaces of Mars between 4.1 and about 3.7 billion years ago (Gya). Noachian-aged surfaces are scarred by many large impact craters. The Tharsis bulge is thought to have formed during the Noachian, along with extensive erosion by liquid water producing river valley networks. Large lakes or oceans may have been present. Hesperian Period (named after Hesperia Planum): 3.7 to approximately 3.0 Gya. The Hesperian Period is marked by the formation of extensive lava plains. The formation of Olympus Mons likely began during this period.[11] Catastrophic releases of water carved extensive outflow channels around Chryse Planitia and elswhere. Ephemeral lakes or seas formed in the northern lowlands. Amazonian Period (named after Amazonis Planitia): 3.0 Gya to present. Amazonian regions have few meteorite impact craters but are otherwise quite varied. Lava flows, glacial/periglacial activity, and minor releases of liquid water continued during this period. The date of the Hesperian/Amazonian boundary is particularly uncertain and could range anywhere from 3.0 to 1.5 Gya.[12] Basically, the Hesperian is thought of as a transitional period between the end of heavy bombardment and the cold, dry Mars seen today. http://palaeos.com/precambrian/martian_timescale.html
The Yellowknife Bay formation is thought to have been deposited during the Early Hesperian Period in a “strikingly Earth-like habitable environment.”
At Yellowknife Bay there is no hint of the strongly acidic conditions that have been thought to especially describe the planet’s younger history of aqueous alteration, sedimentation, and habitability (74, 83, 91). The record of aqueous activity at Yellowknife Bay is likely prolonged and complex, involving several stages of diagenesis, including clay formation, that culminate with precipitation of calcium sulfate salts in veins, but without attendant indicators of acidic waters such as iron sul-fates. The simplest interpretation of the sequence of diagenetic events would involve progressive desiccation of mildly saline, pH neutral waters—a very Earth-like scenario (92). Such conditions have been envisaged for the very early history of Mars (91), but it is only recently that they have been considered viable for a younger age (7, 93, 94). The surprising result is that the stratigraphy of Yellowknife Bay may not only preserve evidence of a habitable environment, but one that is relatively young by Martian standards. In the most conservative scenario allowed by geologic mapping, the Yellowknife Bay formation represents part of the older fill of Gale crater, and therefore roughly Early Hesperian in age (6), perhaps overlapping with or post-dating times of bedded sulfate formation elsewhere on Mars. This would indicate that times of sustained surface water, neutral pH, and authigenic clay formation extended later into Mars’ history. The potentially young age of clay formation (and habitability) does not invalidate the general trend that most rocks that interacted with water early in Mars’ history produced clays, and those that interacted later produced sulfates. However, much like Earth’s time-dependent records of iron formation (95, 96) and carbonates (97, 98), it points to the need to understand those special conditions which allow a distinctive aqueous environment to persist for broad spans of geologic time, or to recur when the favorable conditions again emerge. Curiosity’s detection of a relatively young, and strikingly Earth-like habitable environment at Gale crater underscores the biologic potential of relatively young fluvio-lacustrine environments. Grotzinger et al., 2014
References
Grotzinger, J. P., Sumner, D. Y., Kah, L. C., Stack, K., Gupta, S., Edgar, L., … Yingst, A. (2014). A habitable fluvio-lacustrine environment at Yellowknife Bay, Gale crater, Mars. Science, 343(6169). https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1242777
Mittelholz, A., C. L. Johnson, J. M. Feinberg, B. Langlais, R. J. Phillips. Timing of the martian dynamo: New constraints for a core field 4.5 and 3.7 Ga ago. Science Advances, 2020; 6 (18): eaba0513 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aba0513
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wattsupwiththat--2020-05-05--Climate goalpost migration: if you can’t prove more hurricanes, say it’s making them relocate

From NOAA HEADQUARTERS ( via EurekaAlert ) and the “ Climate Refugees ” department comes this inane claim that can easily be explained by natural ocean current pattern changes such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the Atlantic Meridontal Oscillation , but instead get the universal boogeyman of “ climate change ” applied as the driver .
Takeaway : “ the global average number of tropical cyclones each year has not budged from 86 over the last four decades ” .
Study : Climate change has been influencing where tropical cyclones rage While the global average number of tropical cyclones @ @ @ @ @ @ @ over the last four decades , climate change has been influencing the locations of where these deadly storms occur , according to new NOAA-led research published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences .
New research indicates that the number of tropical cyclones has been rising since 1980 in the North Atlantic and Central Pacific , while storms have been declining in the western Pacific and in the southern Indian Ocean .
“ We show for the first time that this observed geographic pattern can not be explained only by natural variability @ @ @ @ @ @ @ climate researcher at NOAA ’ s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory and lead author .
Murakami used climate models to determine that greenhouse gases , manmade aerosols including particulate pollution , and volcanic eruptions were influencing where tropical cyclones were hitting .
Greenhouse gases are warming the upper atmosphere and the ocean .
This combines to create a more stable atmosphere with less chance that convection of air currents will help spawn and build up tropical cyclones .
Particulate pollution and other aerosols help create clouds and reflect sunlight away from the earth , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ decline in particulate pollution due to pollution control measures may increase the warming of the ocean by allowing more sunlight to be absorbed by the ocean .
Diminishing manmade aerosols is one of the reasons for the active tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic over the last 40 years , Murakami said .
However , toward the end of this century , tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic are projected to decrease due to the “ calming ” effect of greenhouse gases .
Volcanic eruptions have also altered the location of where tropical @ @ @ @ @ @ @ research .
For example , the major eruptions in El Chichón in Mexico in 1982 and Pinatubo in the Philippines in 1991 caused the atmosphere of the northern hemisphere to cool , which shifted tropical cyclone activity southward for a few years .
Ocean warming has resumed since 2000 , leading to increased tropical cyclone activity in the northern hemisphere .
Looking ahead : Scientists predict fewer tropical cyclones by 2100 but likely more severe Climate models project decreases in tropical cyclones toward the end of the 21st century from the annual average @ @ @ @ @ @ @ according to the new study .
Declines are projected in most regions except in the Central Pacific Ocean , including Hawaii , where tropical cyclone activity is expected to increase .
Despite a projected decline in tropical cyclones by 2100 , many of these cyclones will be significantly more severe .
Why ?
Rising sea surface temperatures fuel the intensity and destructiveness of tropical storms .
“ We hope this research provides information to help decision-makers understand the forces driving tropical cyclone patterns and make plans accordingly to protect lives and infrastructure , @ @ @ @

From NOAA HEADQUARTERS (via EurekaAlert) and the “Climate Refugees” department comes this inane claim that can easily be explained by natural ocean current pattern changes such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the Atlantic Meridontal Oscillation, but instead get the universal boogeyman of “climate change” applied as the driver. Takeaway: “the global average number of tropical cyclones each year has not budged from 86 over the last four decades”.
Study: Climate change has been influencing where tropical cyclones rage
While the global average number of tropical cyclones each year has not budged from 86 over the last four decades, climate change has been influencing the locations of where these deadly storms occur, according to new NOAA-led research published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
New research indicates that the number of tropical cyclones has been rising since 1980 in the North Atlantic and Central Pacific, while storms have been declining in the western Pacific and in the southern Indian Ocean.
“We show for the first time that this observed geographic pattern cannot be explained only by natural variability,” said Hiroyuki Murakami, a climate researcher at NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory and lead author.
Murakami used climate models to determine that greenhouse gases, manmade aerosols including particulate pollution, and volcanic eruptions were influencing where tropical cyclones were hitting.
3 forces influence where storms are hitting
Greenhouse gases are warming the upper atmosphere and the ocean. This combines to create a more stable atmosphere with less chance that convection of air currents will help spawn and build up tropical cyclones.
Particulate pollution and other aerosols help create clouds and reflect sunlight away from the earth, causing cooling, Murakami said. The decline in particulate pollution due to pollution control measures may increase the warming of the ocean by allowing more sunlight to be absorbed by the ocean.
Diminishing manmade aerosols is one of the reasons for the active tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic over the last 40 years, Murakami said. However, toward the end of this century, tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic are projected to decrease due to the “calming” effect of greenhouse gases.
Volcanic eruptions have also altered the location of where tropical cyclones have occurred, according to the research. For example, the major eruptions in El Chichón in Mexico in 1982 and Pinatubo in the Philippines in 1991 caused the atmosphere of the northern hemisphere to cool, which shifted tropical cyclone activity southward for a few years. Ocean warming has resumed since 2000, leading to increased tropical cyclone activity in the northern hemisphere.
Looking ahead: Scientists predict fewer tropical cyclones by 2100 but likely more severe
Climate models project decreases in tropical cyclones toward the end of the 21st century from the annual average of 86 to about 69 worldwide, according to the new study. Declines are projected in most regions except in the Central Pacific Ocean, including Hawaii, where tropical cyclone activity is expected to increase.
Despite a projected decline in tropical cyclones by 2100, many of these cyclones will be significantly more severe. Why? Rising sea surface temperatures fuel the intensity and destructiveness of tropical storms.
“We hope this research provides information to help decision-makers understand the forces driving tropical cyclone patterns and make plans accordingly to protect lives and infrastructure,” Murakami said.
###
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