wattsupwiththat--2020-12-29--Model used to evaluate lockdowns was flawed

In a recent study , researchers from Imperial College London developed a model to assess the effect of different measures used to curb the spread of the coronavirus .
However , the model had fundamental shortcomings and can not be used to draw the published conclusions , claim Swedish researchers from Lund University , and other institutions , in the journal .
WATCH : Three reasons why mathematical models failed to predict the spread of the coronavirus – https : //www.youtube.com/watch ?
v=nwT8_CyIcSI The results from Imperial indicated that it was almost exclusively the complete societal lockdown that suppressed the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The study estimated the effects of different measures such as social distancing , self-isolating , closing schools , banning public events and the lockdown itself .
“ As the measures were introduced at roughly the same time over a few weeks in March , the mortality data used simply does not contain enough information to differentiate their individual effects .
We have demontrated this by conducting a mathematical analysis .
Using this as a basis , we then ran simulations using Imperial College ’ s original code to illustrate how the model @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , ” explains Kristian Soltesz , associate professor in automatic control at Lund University and first author of the article .
The group ’ s interest in the Imperial College model was roused by the fact that it explained almost all of the reduction in transmission during the spring via lockdowns in ten of the eleven countries modelled .
The exception was Sweden , which never introduced a lockdown .
“ In Sweden the model offered an entirely different measure as an explanation to the reduction – a measure that appeared almost ineffective @ @ @ @ @ @ @ almost too good to be true that an effective lockdown was introduced in every country except one , while another measure appeared to be unusually effective in this country ” , notes Soltesz .
Soltesz is careful to point out that it is entirely plausible that individual measures had an effect , but that the model could not be used to determine how effective they were .
“ The various interventions do not appear to work in isolation from one another , but are often dependent upon each other .
A change in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ influences the effect of other interventions .
How much and in what way is harder to know , and requires different skills and collaboration ” , says Anna Jöud , associate professor in epidemiology at Lund University and co-author of the study .
Analyses of models from Imperial College and others highlight the importance of epidemiological models being reviewed , according to the authors .
“ There is a major focus in the debate on sources of data and their reliability , but an almost total lack of systematic review of the sensitivity @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and data .
This is just as important , especially when governments across the globe are using dynamic models as a basis for decisions ” , Soltesz and Jöud point out .
The first step is to carry out a correct analysis of the model ’ s sensitivities .
If they pose too great a problem then more reliable data is needed , often combined with a less complex model structure .
“ With a lot at stake , it is wise to be humble when faced with fundamental limitations .
Dynamic models @ @ @ @ @ @ @ into account the uncertainty of the assumptions on which they are based and the data they are led by .
If this is not the case , the results are on a par with assumptions or guesses ” , concludes Soltesz .

[from the duuuhhh files~cr]
LUND UNIVERSITY
Research News
In a recent study, researchers from Imperial College London developed a model to assess the effect of different measures used to curb the spread of the coronavirus. However, the model had fundamental shortcomings and cannot be used to draw the published conclusions, claim Swedish researchers from Lund University, and other institutions, in the journal Nature.
WATCH: Three reasons why mathematical models failed to predict the spread of the coronavirus – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nwT8_CyIcSI
The results from Imperial indicated that it was almost exclusively the complete societal lockdown that suppressed the wave of infections in Europe during spring.
The study estimated the effects of different measures such as social distancing, self-isolating, closing schools, banning public events and the lockdown itself.
“As the measures were introduced at roughly the same time over a few weeks in March, the mortality data used simply does not contain enough information to differentiate their individual effects. We have demontrated this by conducting a mathematical analysis. Using this as a basis, we then ran simulations using Imperial College’s original code to illustrate how the model’s sensitivity leads to unreliable results,” explains Kristian Soltesz, associate professor in automatic control at Lund University and first author of the article.
The group’s interest in the Imperial College model was roused by the fact that it explained almost all of the reduction in transmission during the spring via lockdowns in ten of the eleven countries modelled. The exception was Sweden, which never introduced a lockdown.
“In Sweden the model offered an entirely different measure as an explanation to the reduction – a measure that appeared almost ineffective in the other countries. It seemed almost too good to be true that an effective lockdown was introduced in every country except one, while another measure appeared to be unusually effective in this country”, notes Soltesz.
Soltesz is careful to point out that it is entirely plausible that individual measures had an effect, but that the model could not be used to determine how effective they were.
“The various interventions do not appear to work in isolation from one another, but are often dependent upon each other. A change in behaviour as a result of one intervention influences the effect of other interventions. How much and in what way is harder to know, and requires different skills and collaboration”, says Anna Jöud, associate professor in epidemiology at Lund University and co-author of the study.
Analyses of models from Imperial College and others highlight the importance of epidemiological models being reviewed, according to the authors.
“There is a major focus in the debate on sources of data and their reliability, but an almost total lack of systematic review of the sensitivity of different models in terms of parameters and data. This is just as important, especially when governments across the globe are using dynamic models as a basis for decisions”, Soltesz and Jöud point out.
The first step is to carry out a correct analysis of the model’s sensitivities. If they pose too great a problem then more reliable data is needed, often combined with a less complex model structure.
“With a lot at stake, it is wise to be humble when faced with fundamental limitations. Dynamic models are usable as long as they take into account the uncertainty of the assumptions on which they are based and the data they are led by. If this is not the case, the results are on a par with assumptions or guesses”, concludes Soltesz.
###
From EurekAlert!
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wattsupwiththat--2020-12-30--Shaping a Spiral Galaxy

Shaping a Spiral Galaxy

Guess what .
I ’ m struggling to figure what they think they ’ ve found here .
Apart from the pretty patterns you get with magnet , sheet of paper and some iron filings .
In the case of the A Galaxy , the iron filings are the stars and planets .
There ’ s got to be a lot of iron out there , it ’ s the end point of all fusion and fission reactions .
The filings themselves create and are the magnetism .
Another case of Cause & Effect confusion .
And puhleeeeze , can @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for Black Holes b ) The cringe-worthy and utterly fake self-deprecation , where everything has to be super , massive , kilo , supermassive .
OK Lets have one or more clouds of stuff drifting around in otherwise empty space If 2 of them venture near each other , they will pull each other apart into a rough sort of filament via Gravity .
The sides closest to each other will pull together faster , because gravity works a a square-law with distance .
As the first material from each ‘ meets in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ via inertia but will slow , pull themselves around and try again to get to the gravitational centre of the 2 clouds Thus the thing starts spinning Stuff that was on the far sides of each cloud will arrive late to the party and in the form of a long trail and thus are the starting points for your ( two ) spiral arms As very often seen .
So you say , why not more spiral arms or no spirals at all ?
Surely , the 2 clouds must have been comparable @ @ @ @ @ @ @ meet ’ at their gravitational centre , they will be Off Balance ’ Like when you get new tyres on your truk , the wheels need balancing .
Otherwise , as they spin , they will vibrate and given enough time will shake and vibtare your truck to bits .
So it will be with out-of-balance galaxies .
They will throw themselves to peices and we will rarely or never see them .
But , gravity being the thing it is , the bits will re-assemble and try again and float around space @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of similar size/mass If they do , they will make a spiral .
If not , they will break up and try again .
Hence obviously why the galaxies we do see , are nice neat twin arm spirals We don ’ t need anything complicated and All Sciencey [ ‘ ve just made this up as I went along .
Somehow I just know , there will be a super duper kilo mega unprecented colour-deficient empty void/space inside it .
There always is ] haha .
See The Problem with Black Holes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ if its full of stuff ?

From NASA
Magnetic fields in NGC 1068, or M77, are shown as streamlines over a visible light and X-ray composite image of the galaxy from the Hubble Space Telescope, NuSTAR or the Nuclear Spectroscopic Array, and the Sloan Digital Sky Survey.
The magnetic fields align along the entire length of the massive spiral arms — 24,000 light years across (0.8 kiloparsecs) — implying that the gravitational forces that created the galaxy’s shape are also compressing the its magnetic field.
This supports the leading theory of how the spiral arms are forced into their iconic shape known as “density wave theory.” SOFIA, the Stratospheric Observatory for Infrared Astronomy, studied the galaxy using far-infrared light (89 microns) to reveal facets of its magnetic fields that previous observations using visible and radio telescopes could not detect.
Learn more: How to Shape a Spiral Galaxy
Image Credit: NASA/SOFIA; NASA/JPL-Caltech/Roma Tre Univ.Last Updated: Dec. 28, 2020Editor: Yvette Smith
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wattsupwiththat--2020-12-31--Greta Thunberg: “we are not listening to climate scientists”

According to Greta Thunberg we listened to scientific advice about Covid-19 , but for some reason we are ignoring advice from climate scientists and biodiversity specialists .
‘ We can not make it without science ’ : Greta Thunberg says climate experts are being ignored Climate specialists not being listened to despite Covid showing importance of following science , activist says In a joint interview with the author Margaret Atwood , broadcast on BBC Radio 4 on Tuesday as part of the two-times Booker prize-winning writer ’ s guest-editing of the Today programme .
Thunberg was asked if the pandemic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ appreciation of science would have an effect on climate information .
“ It could definitely have .
I think this pandemic has shone a light on how … we are depending on science and that we can not make it without science , ” Thunberg said .
“ But of course , we are only listening to one type of scientist , or some types of scientist , and , for example , we are not listening to climate scientists , we ’ re not listening to scientists who work on biodiversity and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ change.
” The environmental campaigner expressed scepticism when questioned about nations ’ pledges to reduce their carbon emissions , such as China , which has committed to reach net zero by 2060 .
“ That would be very nice if they actually meant something , ” Thunberg said .
“ We can ’ t just keep talking about future , hypothetical , vague , distant dates and pledges .
We need to do things now .
And also net zero … that is a very big loophole , you can fit a lot @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ”

Guest essay by Eric Worrall
According to Greta Thunberg we listened to scientific advice about Covid-19, but for some reason we are ignoring advice from climate scientists and biodiversity specialists.
‘We cannot make it without science’: Greta Thunberg says climate experts are being ignored
Climate specialists not being listened to despite Covid showing importance of following science, activist says
PA Media
Wed 30 Dec 2020 02.42 AEDT
…
In a joint interview with the author Margaret Atwood, broadcast on BBC Radio 4 on Tuesday as part of the two-times Booker prize-winning writer’s guest-editing of the Today programme.
Thunberg was asked if the pandemic’s impact on people’s appreciation of science would have an effect on climate information.
“It could definitely have. I think this pandemic has shone a light on how … we are depending on science and that we cannot make it without science,” Thunberg said.
“But of course, we are only listening to one type of scientist, or some types of scientist, and, for example, we are not listening to climate scientists, we’re not listening to scientists who work on biodiversity and that, of course, needs to change.”
The environmental campaigner expressed scepticism when questioned about nations’ pledges to reduce their carbon emissions, such as China, which has committed to reach net zero by 2060.
“That would be very nice if they actually meant something,” Thunberg said. “We can’t just keep talking about future, hypothetical, vague, distant dates and pledges. We need to do things now. And also net zero … that is a very big loophole, you can fit a lot in that word ‘net’.”
…


wattsupwiththat--2020-12-30--Guardian: Could the Covid Lockdown have Helped Save Us from Climate Change?

According to The Guardian , the Covid lockdown brought “ heart warming ” images of sheep grazing in a deserted children ’ s playground , and gave us a glimpse of what might be possible under a future Climate lockdown .
Could Covid lockdown have helped save the planet ?
Slowdown of human activity was too short to reverse years of destruction , but we saw a glimpse of post-fossil fuel world hen lockdown began , climate scientists were horrified at the unfolding tragedy , but also intrigued to observe what they called an “ inadvertent experiment ” on a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ they asked , would the Earth system respond to the steepest slowdown in human activity since the second world war ?
Environmental activists put the question more succinctly : how much would it help to save the planet ?
The respite was too short to reverse decades of destruction , but it did provide a glimpse of what the world might feel like without fossil fuels and with more space for nature .
Wildlife did not have time to reclaim lost territory but it had scope for exploration .
Alongside apocalyptic images of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with in Monmouthshire , Wales , coyotes on the Golden Gate Bridge in San Francisco , wild boar snuffling through the streets of Barcelona , and deer grazing not far from the White House in Washington DC .
Wildflowers flourished on roadsides because verges were cut less frequently .
But the gains were short-lived .
Once lockdown eased , traffic surged back and so did air pollution .
In a survey of 49 British towns and cities , 80 % had contamination levels that were now the same or worse than before the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ mountain peaks and wild animals are fading in the memory .

Guest essay by Eric Worrall
According to The Guardian, the Covid lockdown brought “heart warming” images of sheep grazing in a deserted children’s playground, and gave us a glimpse of what might be possible under a future Climate lockdown.
Could Covid lockdown have helped save the planet?
Slowdown of human activity was too short to reverse years of destruction, but we saw a glimpse of post-fossil fuel world
Jonathan Watts@jonathanwatts
Tue 29 Dec 2020 18.00 AEDT
When lockdown began, climate scientists were horrified at the unfolding tragedy, but also intrigued to observe what they called an “inadvertent experiment” on a global scale. To what extent, they asked, would the Earth system respond to the steepest slowdown in human activity since the second world war?
Environmental activists put the question more succinctly: how much would it help to save the planet?
…
The respite was too short to reverse decades of destruction, but it did provide a glimpse of what the world might feel like without fossil fuels and with more space for nature.
Wildlife did not have time to reclaim lost territory but it had scope for exploration. Alongside apocalyptic images of deserted roads, the internet briefly buzzed with heartwarming clips of sheep in a deserted playground in Monmouthshire, Wales, coyotes on the Golden Gate Bridge in San Francisco, wild boar snuffling through the streets of Barcelona, and deer grazing not far from the White House in Washington DC. Wildflowers flourished on roadsides because verges were cut less frequently.
…
But the gains were short-lived. Once lockdown eased, traffic surged back and so did air pollution. In a survey of 49 British towns and cities, 80% had contamination levels that were now the same or worse than before the pandemic. Elsewhere, sightings of distant mountain peaks and wild animals are fading in the memory.
…


wattsupwiththat--2020-12-31--Which of These is 2020’s Greatest “Crime against Humanity”

For the purpose of this Statute , ‘ crime against humanity ’ means any of the following acts when committed as part of a directed against any civilian population , with [ emphasis mine ] .
The acts in themselves include many crimes including murder , enslavement , enforced disappearance , etc .
and also “ other inhumane acts of a similar character intentionally causing great suffering , or serious injury to body or to mental or physical health.
” In contrast with genocide , crimes against humanity do not need to target a specific group .
Instead , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ civilian population , regardless of its affiliation or identity .
Systemic crimes by communist regimes , such as the Holodomor ( the famine manufactured by the Soviets in Ukraine ) and the Great Leap Forward ( Chairman Mao ’ s “ reconstruction ” that killed 45 million ) have been described as “ crimes against humanity.
” Human beings are organisms capable of directing themselves , governing and even manufacturing , their emotions .
They can also modify , , the very source of directedness and emotion ( i.e.
, the brain ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
This self-directedness ( ) , is a primal source of joy , creativity , and productivity .
It does not follow that we must each secure knowledge in every field from cooking to medicine to virology .
In a world full of specialization , we can decide to follow experts we choose to trust .
In a free-speech world , we may make errors in seeking and following experts that turn out to be wrong , but reality promptly corrects wrongheaded science .
Science , when unhindered by willful mind-criminals , never @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a “ crime against humanity ” to force humans to act against their better judgment , to coerce them into accepting the rule of “ wise men.
” It ’ s even worse to hoodwink them into thinking that the counsel of experts is freely available to citizens via governments , and by those who have assumed the responsibility of holding governments to account ( the media ) .
So deceived , humanity , willingly but unknowingly , acts against its own interest .
I submit to you , the reader , that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this deception .
The Year 2020 ’ s Most Egregious Crimes against Humanity Our foundation laid , we are now in a position to call out the worst abuses of this calendar year .
A caveat , here .
Much of this foundation was laid across several essays that were published on through 2020 , and like the paragraph on autonomy above , are summaries of longer arguments .
Hyperlinks are provided for those who wish to dig deeper .
The year 2020 erupted with monstrous bushfires in Australia .
The bulk of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not have a natural cause such as lightning strikes ( for which advanced meteorology keeps an accurate tab on locations and timing ) , but arson .
By the end of the northern summer , the western United States , too , was engulfed by record-breaking but preventable mega fires that claimed or destroyed human lives and other species .
As children and their grandmothers were burned alive , mass media peddled the false narrative of the primary cause being “ climate change.
” 2 .
Was It Criminal Negligence or Design ?
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ , a Chinese virologist , was involved in investigating the first reported outbreak of COVID-19 in the world in Wuhan .
In April 2020 , she fled China and came to the U.S. , where she sought refuge .
She later claimed , on several U.S. channels including Fox News that the COVID-19 virus was engineered in a lab—that the genome fingerprint reveals a — “ a cow with a deer ’ s head , a rabbit ’ s ears , and a monkey ’ s hands can not arise in nature [ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that the wet market origination story was a smokescreen .
Dr. Lan also asserted that the World Health Organisation ( WHO ) was complicit , courtesy China ’ s intrusive domination of many developing countries via strategic lending ( the Belt and Road Initiative ) and its subversive machinations .
Dr. Lan ’ s claims may be false .
But they are being suppressed by mass media despite other virologists making similar claims .
Google raises to the top of its search engine ; its algorithms , it appears , are designed to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the virus was lab engineered , its escape into the world may have resulted from negligence rather than intent .
But , at the very least , in the initial phase of the pandemic , China actively suppressed information that could have saved countless lives—this is not disputed .
That suppression of vital information alone marks it as a morally heinous crime .
3. WHO , CDC , and Public Health Agencies ’ Crime against Humanity What if the virus arose in nature and escaped China inadvertently ?
The public health agencies are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in 2020 , there were plenty of signs of asymptomatic carry and a cure as the immune system overcame the virus , and also evidence that certain treatments , if given in the initial stages of the disease , were extremely effective .
But health agencies actively pooh-poohed studies of antibody testing and refused to engage on the cardinal numbers that really mattered .
Hospitals inflated deaths by COVID to get access to more funds and the agencies turned a blind eye .
Fraudulent studies that demonized HCQ were published in the world @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The neo-Marxists long march through our institutions began nearly a century ago .
The critical capture was of academe , and then , media .
Economics was an easy prey once Keynes published his outlandish departure from logic .
The humanities were re-erected with “ grievance studies , ” a scientific hoax .
Mass media ’ s shift away from objectivity toward leftist advocacy masquerading as journalism was predicated on the falsification provided by “ peer-reviewed ” journals , which , in the humanities , had become subtle advocates for unreason .
Restrained @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , mass media used European regulation to strangle the multinational tech giants like Facebook , Twitter , and Google ( owner of YouTube ) .
Inventing pseudo-objective paradigms like “ fake news ” and “ hate speech , ” they succeeded in flooding the social media public square with neo-Marxist bias .
Let ’ s recall the Rome Statute ’ s key criteria for labeling a wrong a “ crime against humanity ” : Intentionally causing great suffering , an attack that is widespread or systematic , and directed against any civilian population @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , do you , the reader , believe to be the most egregiously heinous criminals against humanity of the year 2020 ?

From The Savvy Street.com
By Vinay Kolhatkar
Article 7 of the Rome Statute states:
For the purpose of this Statute, ‘crime against humanity’ means any of the following acts when committed as part of a widespread or systematic attack directed against any civilian population, with knowledge of the attack [emphasis mine].
The acts in themselves include many crimes including murder, enslavement, enforced disappearance, etc. and also “other inhumane acts of a similar character intentionally causing great suffering, or serious injury to body or to mental or physical health.”
The U.N. adds:
In contrast with genocide, crimes against humanity do not need to target a specific group. Instead, the victim of the attack can be any civilian population, regardless of its affiliation or identity.
Systemic crimes by communist regimes, such as the Holodomor (the famine manufactured by the Soviets in Ukraine) and the Great Leap Forward (Chairman Mao’s “reconstruction” that killed 45 million) have been described as “crimes against humanity.”
The Quintessential Nature of Humanity
Human beings are organisms capable of directing themselves, governing and even manufacturing, their emotions. They can also modify, physiologically, the very source of directedness and emotion (i.e., the brain) with purpose and practice (neuroplasticity).
This self-directedness (autonomy), is a primal source of joy, creativity, and productivity. It does not follow that we must each secure knowledge in every field from cooking to medicine to virology. In a world full of specialization, we can decide to follow experts we choose to trust. In a free-speech world, we may make errors in seeking and following experts that turn out to be wrong, but reality promptly corrects wrongheaded science. Science, when unhindered by willful mind-criminals, never goes backward.
It’s thus a “crime against humanity” to force humans to act against their better judgment, to coerce them into accepting the rule of “wise men.” It’s even worse to hoodwink them into thinking that the unbiased counsel of experts is freely available to citizens via governments, and by those who have assumed the responsibility of holding governments to account (the media). So deceived, humanity, willingly but unknowingly, acts against its own interest.
I submit to you, the reader, that there is no greater moral crime than this deception.
The Year 2020’s Most Egregious Crimes against Humanity
Our foundation laid, we are now in a position to call out the worst abuses of this calendar year.
A caveat, here. Much of this foundation was laid across several essays that were published on Savvy Street through 2020, and like the paragraph on autonomy above, are summaries of longer arguments. Hyperlinks are provided for those who wish to dig deeper.
1. Green Ideology Murdered People, Destroyed Property, and Burned Livestock
The year 2020 erupted with monstrous bushfires in Australia. The bulk of these, it was determined, did not have a natural cause such as lightning strikes (for which advanced meteorology keeps an accurate tab on locations and timing), but arson.
By the end of the northern summer, the western United States, too, was engulfed by record-breaking but preventable mega fires that claimed or destroyed human lives and other species. As children and their grandmothers were burned alive, mass media peddled the false narrative of the primary cause being “climate change.”
2. Was It Criminal Negligence or Design? China and the Virus
Dr. Li-Meng Yan, a Chinese virologist, was involved in investigating the first reported outbreak of COVID-19 in the world in Wuhan. In April 2020, she fled China and came to the U.S., where she sought refuge.
She later claimed, on several U.S. channels including Fox News that the COVID-19 virus was engineered in a lab—that the genome fingerprint reveals a manufacture—“a cow with a deer’s head, a rabbit’s ears, and a monkey’s hands cannot arise in nature [minute 2.30 to 2.40];” that the wet market origination story was a smokescreen. Dr. Lan also asserted that the World Health Organisation (WHO) was complicit, courtesy China’s intrusive domination of many developing countries via strategic lending (the Belt and Road Initiative) and its subversive machinations.
Dr. Lan’s claims may be false. But they are being suppressed by mass media despite other virologists making similar claims. Google raises only the dismissals to the top of its search engine; its algorithms, it appears, are designed to promulgate the establishment narrative.
Even if the virus was lab engineered, its escape into the world may have resulted from negligence rather than intent. But, at the very least, in the initial phase of the pandemic, China actively suppressed information that could have saved countless lives—this is not disputed. That suppression of vital information alone marks it as a morally heinous crime.
3. WHO, CDC, and Public Health Agencies’ Crime against Humanity
What if the virus arose in nature and escaped China inadvertently? The public health agencies are not exonerated by that hypothesis.
Early in 2020, there were plenty of signs of asymptomatic carry and a cure as the immune system overcame the virus, and also evidence that certain treatments, if given in the initial stages of the disease, were extremely effective.
But health agencies actively pooh-poohed studies of antibody testing and refused to engage on the cardinal numbers that really mattered. Hospitals inflated deaths by COVID to get access to more funds and the agencies turned a blind eye. Fraudulent studies that demonized HCQ were published in the world’s most prestigious medical journals.
4. The Enablers: Mass Media and Academe’s Capitulation Is a Crime
The neo-Marxists long march through our institutions began nearly a century ago. The critical capture was of academe, and then, media.
Economics was an easy prey once Keynes published his outlandish departure from logic. The humanities were re-erected with “grievance studies,” a scientific hoax. Mass media’s shift away from objectivity toward leftist advocacy masquerading as journalism was predicated on the falsification provided by “peer-reviewed” journals, which, in the humanities, had become subtle advocates for unreason.
Restrained by the First Amendment in the U.S., mass media used European regulation to strangle the multinational tech giants like Facebook, Twitter, and Google (owner of YouTube). Inventing pseudo-objective paradigms like “fake news” and “hate speech,” they succeeded in flooding the social media public square with neo-Marxist bias.
Let’s recall the Rome Statute’s key criteria for labeling a wrong a “crime against humanity”:
Intentionally causing great suffering, an attack that is widespread or systematic, and directed against any civilian population at large.
Which of these four, do you, the reader, believe to be the most egregiously heinous criminals against humanity of the year 2020?
Read More at: https://www.thesavvystreet.com/which-of-these-is-2020s-greatest-crime-against-humanity/
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wattsupwiththat--2020-12-31--The Middle East Doubles Down on Oil and Gas As the UN Warns of “Climate Emergency”

At the virtual “ Climate Ambition Summit ” co-hosted by the UN and UK and attended by over 70 world leaders on December 12th , Secretary-General António Guterres issued a stark warning : the world is facing a catastrophe ahead as it is on track to warm by more than 30 C by the end of the century “ unless all countries declare climate emergency ” .
He expressed disappointment at the summit that the G-20 countries are “ spending 50 % more in their stimulus and rescue packages on sectors linked to fossil fuel production and consumption than on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The Secretary-General asked earnestly “ Can anybody still deny we are facing a dramatic emergency ” ?
The question poses the vast gulf between the policy positions of key Western governments and the oil and gas producers in the Middle East .
For the Middle East hydrocarbon producers hit by the ‘ double whammy ’ of sharply reduced oil and gas price – the mainstay of government revenues — and the impact of Covid-19 lockdowns on domestic economic activity , the strategy for national survival is clear and could not be more opposed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sharply increasing the pace of monetizing the oil and gas reserves that their countries are blessed with .
Middle East To Supply More Oil And Gas Within two weeks of the UN summit , Saudi Arabia ’ s energy minister announced on December 27th the discovery of four new oil and gas fields , including unconventional resources .
The discoveries will boost the country ’ s plans to increase its maximum sustained crude production capacity from the current 12 million b/d to 13 million b/d as well as developing its gas resources to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of burning it for power generation .
CEO Sultan Al Jaber of the ADNOC , one of the leading national oil companies in the Gulf region , said that the Abu Dhabi company is “ leaving no stone unturned in unblocking value from our abundant hydrocarbon resources ” .
In late 2019 , Abu Dhabi ’ s government approved $ 122 billion investment schedule for the next 5 years to raise its oil and gas production capacity .
With massive newly discovered reserves and the go-ahead to award major oil and gas exploration @ @ @ @ @ @ @ increasing its oil production capacity to 5 million barrels/day ( b/d ) from its current 4 million b/d .
While The West Seeks To Do Without In contrast , the climate summit was an occasion for Prime Minister Boris Johnson to show leadership on climate policy in a warm-up act for next year ’ s global climate conference to be held in Glasgow and hosted by the UK .
Calling for a radical end to dependence on fossil fuels , the UK has previously announced a ban on new diesel and petrol cars @ @ @ @ @ @ @ emissions by a steep 68 % of 1990 levels by 2030 .
At the climate summit , Prime Minister Johnson pledged to end the financing of oil and gas projects overseas “ as soon as possible ” .
He also repeated his call for the UK to become “ the Saudi Arabia of the wind power generation ” , putting the nation ’ s “ foot to the accelerator in a carbon friendly way ” .
Policy makers of a number of Western countries that have announced ambitious zero-emission reduction goals by 2050 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ crisis into an “ opportunity ” for a Green Industrial Revolution ( Boris Johnson ) and the Great Reset of global business ( Klaus Schwab , founder of the World Economic forum ) .
And we are promised that a Biden presidency around the corner will sign on to the ‘ net-zero by 2050 ’ pledge from day one of its taking office .
While policy elites in the West warn about the “ impending ” cataclysmic outcome of not reducing emissions , those of the rest of the world have been beset @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in restoring growth and employment for their citizens hit by recessions amid a global pandemic .
Hydrocarbons constitute almost 85 % of global energy consumption , while renewable energy technologies such as wind , solar , modern biofuels and batteries are barely able to provide 5 % .
Can these renewable energy technologies provide the world with the energy that it needs in the foreseeable future ?
But That Oil and Gas Is Needed Despite the unprecedented demand collapse caused by the coronavirus pandemic since March and despite the endless stream of stories @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the world faces a long term supply gap for oil and gas .
According to energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie , only about half the supply needed to 2040 is available from producing fields , “ the rest requires new capital investment ” .
Given the recent collapse in upstream oil and gas investments , the International Energy Forum in a recent report pointed out that if upstream investments in oil and gas exploration and production do not increase by 25 % annually over the next 3 years , we face a supply shock @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to IEF ’ s Secretary-General , “ Slashing investment in new production locks in lower total supply…it won ’ t be long before this lower supply collides with resurgent demand .
The result will be higher and more volatile oil prices and headwinds for the post-pandemic global economic recovery.
” Access to fossil fuels , available at scale , is the only known route to economic development .
Since the Industrial Revolution in the 18th and 19th centuries , no country on earth has developed without the use of readily accessible hydrocarbons .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ Saudi Arabia of wind energy ” ( though there are plenty of doubters ) , but what the developing world , accounting for over three quarters of the world ’ s population , needs is for the real Saudi Arabia , along with other oil and gas producers , to be willing and able to supply fossil fuels as needed for human flourishing .

Reposted from Forbes
By Tilak Doshi
At the virtual “Climate Ambition Summit” co-hosted by the UN and UK and attended by over 70 world leaders on December 12th, Secretary-General António Guterres issued a stark warning: the world is facing a catastrophe ahead as it is on track to warm by more than 30 C by the end of the century “unless all countries declare climate emergency”. He expressed disappointment at the summit that the G-20 countries are “spending 50% more in their stimulus and rescue packages on sectors linked to fossil fuel production and consumption than on low carbon energy…This is unacceptable”.
The Secretary-General asked earnestly “Can anybody still deny we are facing a dramatic emergency”? The question poses the vast gulf between the policy positions of key Western governments and the oil and gas producers in the Middle East. For the Middle East hydrocarbon producers hit by the ‘double whammy’ of sharply reduced oil and gas price – the mainstay of government revenues — and the impact of Covid-19 lockdowns on domestic economic activity, the strategy for national survival is clear and could not be more opposed to the UN Secretary-General’s: sharply increasing the pace of monetizing the oil and gas reserves that their countries are blessed with.
Middle East To Supply More Oil And Gas
Within two weeks of the UN summit, Saudi Arabia’s energy minister announced on December 27th the discovery of four new oil and gas fields, including unconventional resources. The discoveries will boost the country’s plans to increase its maximum sustained crude production capacity from the current 12 million b/d to 13 million b/d as well as developing its gas resources to free up more oil for export instead of burning it for power generation.
CEO Sultan Al Jaber of the ADNOC, one of the leading national oil companies in the Gulf region, said that the Abu Dhabi company is “leaving no stone unturned in unblocking value from our abundant hydrocarbon resources”. In late 2019, Abu Dhabi’s government approved $122 billion investment schedule for the next 5 years to raise its oil and gas production capacity. With massive newly discovered reserves and the go-ahead to award major oil and gas exploration blocks, the country looks forward to increasing its oil production capacity to 5 million barrels/day (b/d) from its current 4 million b/d.
While The West Seeks To Do Without
In contrast, the climate summit was an occasion for Prime Minister Boris Johnson to show leadership on climate policy in a warm-up act for next year’s global climate conference to be held in Glasgow and hosted by the UK. Calling for a radical end to dependence on fossil fuels, the UK has previously announced a ban on new diesel and petrol cars by 2035 and a cut in carbon emissions by a steep 68% of 1990 levels by 2030. At the climate summit, Prime Minister Johnson pledged to end the financing of oil and gas projects overseas “as soon as possible”. He also repeated his call for the UK to become “the Saudi Arabia of the wind power generation”, putting the nation’s “foot to the accelerator in a carbon friendly way”.
Policy makers of a number of Western countries that have announced ambitious zero-emission reduction goals by 2050 have focused on converting the coronavirus pandemic crisis into an “opportunity” for a Green Industrial Revolution (Boris Johnson) and the Great Reset of global business (Klaus Schwab, founder of the World Economic forum). And we are promised that a Biden presidency around the corner will sign on to the ‘net-zero by 2050’ pledge from day one of its taking office.
While policy elites in the West warn about the “impending” cataclysmic outcome of not reducing emissions, those of the rest of the world have been beset by the need to make tough choices in restoring growth and employment for their citizens hit by recessions amid a global pandemic. Hydrocarbons constitute almost 85% of global energy consumption, while renewable energy technologies such as wind, solar, modern biofuels and batteries are barely able to provide 5%. Can these renewable energy technologies provide the world with the energy that it needs in the foreseeable future?
But That Oil and Gas Is Needed
Despite the unprecedented demand collapse caused by the coronavirus pandemic since March and despite the endless stream of stories about robust growth of renewable energy, the world faces a long term supply gap for oil and gas. According to energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie, only about half the supply needed to 2040 is available from producing fields, “the rest requires new capital investment”.
Given the recent collapse in upstream oil and gas investments, the International Energy Forum in a recent report pointed out that if upstream investments in oil and gas exploration and production do not increase by 25% annually over the next 3 years, we face a supply shock of “historic proportions”. According to IEF’s Secretary-General, “Slashing investment in new production locks in lower total supply…it won’t be long before this lower supply collides with resurgent demand. The result will be higher and more volatile oil prices and headwinds for the post-pandemic global economic recovery.”
Access to fossil fuels, available at scale, is the only known route to economic development. Since the Industrial Revolution in the 18th and 19th centuries, no country on earth has developed without the use of readily accessible hydrocarbons. The UK may well become the “Saudi Arabia of wind energy” (though there are plenty of doubters), but what the developing world, accounting for over three quarters of the world’s population, needs is for the real Saudi Arabia, along with other oil and gas producers, to be willing and able to supply fossil fuels as needed for human flourishing.
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wattsupwiththat--2020-12-31--Britain’s new climate plan that could make millions of homes unsellable

Reposted from Not A Lot Of People Know That Last week , the government ’ s Climate Change Committee published its ‘ Sixth Carbon Budget ’ recommending what it thinks the government needs to do in order to meet its target of achieving net zero carbon emissions by 2050 .
Much comment revolved around the proposed ban on new gas boilers from 2033 , after which homes would have to be heated either by electric heat pump or possibly by hydrogen boilers , should the government decide to repurpose the existing gas distribution network for hydrogen .
But there is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ document that was hardly reported : a proposal that the sale of properties be banned from 2028 unless they score at least a grade C in an energy performance certificate ( EPC ) .
This has serious implications because millions of British homes will not reach this level and can not be brought up to this standard at any reasonable cost .
I have serious doubts as to whether an EPC energy grade means anything , given that it is just a crude estimate of how well an computer algorithm thinks it ought @ @ @ @ @ @ @ how it performs in practice .
Moreover , these reports seem highly sensitive to who is carrying them out – I hade two done on my home in the space of a year , one of which gave me a score of 42 out of 100 and the second , after I had replaced some windows with better-insulated ones , gave me a score of 32 .
The report informed me that even if I undertook all the recommendations in the EPC , which consisted of fitting solar panels and replacing the boiler @ @ @ @ @ @ @ me up to a score of 49 – a grade E. In other words , I could spend over £10,000 and still I wouldn ’ t be allowed to sell my house and nobody would be allowed to buy it .
Not only that , the Climate Change Committee recommends that mortgages shouldn ’ t be allowed on homes with a EPC rating of less than ‘ C ’ by 2033 .
So you , you won ’ t be able to sell , or to have a mortgage on your home .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ ?
There are nine million homes in Britain which , like mine , have solid walls .
It is going to be virtually impossible to bring many of them up to a ‘ C ’ rating unless their walls are insulated .
You can do that ‘ cheaply ’ by stick insulation on the inside or outside , but even so that will cost – in the case of a three bedroom home – between £7000 and £13,000 , according to Which .
But it is fraught with problems .
If your house @ @ @ @ @ @ @ proof course – which applies to just about any house built before the 1920s – you could be trapping in damp .
More realistically , to achieve a grade ‘ C ’ rating you would have to undertake a complete refurbishment , stripping the property back to the bricks and starting again .
For millions of homeowners , that is not an option .
Has the Climate Change Committee thought for the moment of the repercussions of its recommended policy : to make millions of homes unsaleable ?
These unsaleable properties would be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the many thousands of recently-built homes which , although they notionally have excellent energy performance , are unsaleable thanks to flammable cladding and insulation .

Reposted from Not A Lot Of People Know That
DECEMBER 31, 2020
By Paul Homewood
Last week, the government’s Climate Change Committee published its ‘Sixth Carbon Budget’ recommending what it thinks the government needs to do in order to meet its target of achieving net zero carbon emissions by 2050. Much comment revolved around the proposed ban on new gas boilers from 2033, after which homes would have to be heated either by electric heat pump or possibly by hydrogen boilers, should the government decide to repurpose the existing gas distribution network for hydrogen.
But there is a far bigger nasty concealed in the document that was hardly reported: a proposal that the sale of properties be banned from 2028 unless they score at least a grade C in an energy performance certificate (EPC).
This has serious implications because millions of British homes will not reach this level and cannot be brought up to this standard at any reasonable cost. I have serious doubts as to whether an EPC energy grade means anything, given that it is just a crude estimate of how well an computer algorithm thinks it ought to perform, not a test of how it performs in practice.
Moreover, these reports seem highly sensitive to who is carrying them out – I hade two done on my home in the space of a year, one of which gave me a score of 42 out of 100 and the second, after I had replaced some windows with better-insulated ones, gave me a score of 32. The report informed me that even if I undertook all the recommendations in the EPC, which consisted of fitting solar panels and replacing the boiler, it was only going to bring me up to a score of 49 – a grade E.
In other words, I could spend over £10,000 and still I wouldn’t be allowed to sell my house and nobody would be allowed to buy it. Not only that, the Climate Change Committee recommends that mortgages shouldn’t be allowed on homes with a EPC rating of less than ‘C’ by 2033. So you, you won’t be able to sell, or to have a mortgage on your home. What are you supposed to do then?
There are nine million homes in Britain which, like mine, have solid walls. It is going to be virtually impossible to bring many of them up to a ‘C’ rating unless their walls are insulated. You can do that ‘cheaply’ by stick insulation on the inside or outside, but even so that will cost – in the case of a three bedroom home – between £7000 and £13,000, according to Which. But it is fraught with problems. If your house wasn’t built with a damp proof course – which applies to just about any house built before the 1920s – you could be trapping in damp. More realistically, to achieve a grade ‘C’ rating you would have to undertake a complete refurbishment, stripping the property back to the bricks and starting again. For millions of homeowners, that is not an option.
Has the Climate Change Committee thought for the moment of the repercussions of its recommended policy: to make millions of homes unsaleable? These unsaleable properties would be in addition, of course, to the many thousands of recently-built homes which, although they notionally have excellent energy performance, are unsaleable thanks to flammable cladding and insulation.
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wattsupwiththat--2020-03-30--Civil Rights Leaders Rail Against Enviro Activists, Say Natural Gas Benefits Black Communities

Civil rights leaders are criticizing a common talking point among environmentalist activists who say hydraulic fracking disproportionately hurts black people and other minority communities .
Revs .
Al Sharpton and Jesse Jackson and National Urban League president Marc Morial said they oppose an abrupt move away from fracking , according to an Axios report Monday .
They said the technique for producing natural gas helps black people who struggle with high energy prices .
Morial was particularly rough on activists who said their anti-fracking position is tie in with social justice matters .
( RELATED : EXCLUSIVE : We Asked @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Anti-Fracking Promises .
Only One Responded ) “ I would not want to cite a specific instance , but generally speaking , people are debating these issues in some instances without consultation with the leaders of the African-American communities and neighborhoods affected by these issues , ” Morial told Axios .
Jackson and Sharpton shared their sentiments as well .
Jackson told Axios in February that he supports “ the call [ to ban fracking ] with a proper transition … In the meantime , those who are down and out have to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ made similar points .
“ I think natural gas is a temporary — I don ’ t think we ought to make it the end-all , be-all — solution , but in the interim , people in communities of color should not pay the brunt of suffering through cold winters , ” Sharpton told Axios .
He heads the National Action Network .
Morial , for his part , pushed back on claims that his group ’ s acceptance of donations from fossil fuel companies biases his position .
“ Whenever someone disagrees @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , ‘ Oh , you must be getting paid , ’ ” Morial said .
“ It ’ s condescending , patronizing and racist .
I hope you print it .
I want them to see it .
Because that ’ s the way we feel.
” Morial , Jackson and Sharpton ’ s comments came after the National Association for the Advancement of Colored People warned its local chapters in 2019 that oil companies are supposedly trying to manipulate them into supporting their products .
Black communities and average Americans struggle with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ five households are forced to go without food and medicine to pay their energy bill , the Energy Information Administration noted in a 2018 report .
Some places are forced to rely on exported gas as environmental activists pressure officials to forgo natural gas production and distribution .
Officials in Massachusetts and neighboring New Hampshire , for instance , blocked financing in 2016 for the $ 3 billion Access Northeast Pipeline , which would have helped the state weather an energy crunch in 2018 .
The state ’ s decision to rely principally @ @ @ @ @ @ @ forced it turn to Russian oil imports .
New England ’ s energy grid strained to keep up with skyrocketing energy demand in 2018 when arctic temperatures hammered the East Coast .
Boston received a shipment of natural gas from an export terminal owned by Novatek — one of the Russian energy giants sanctioned in 2014 .

From The Daily Caller
Chris White Tech Reporter
March 30, 2020 11:47 AM ET
Civil rights leaders are criticizing a common talking point among environmentalist activists who say hydraulic fracking disproportionately hurts black people and other minority communities.
Revs. Al Sharpton and Jesse Jackson and National Urban League president Marc Morial said they oppose an abrupt move away from fracking, according to an Axios report Monday. They said the technique for producing natural gas helps black people who struggle with high energy prices.
Morial was particularly rough on activists who said their anti-fracking position is tie in with social justice matters. (RELATED: EXCLUSIVE: We Asked Battleground Dem Lawmakers About Sen. Sanders’ Anti-Fracking Promises. Only One Responded)
“I would not want to cite a specific instance, but generally speaking, people are debating these issues in some instances without consultation with the leaders of the African-American communities and neighborhoods affected by these issues,” Morial told Axios.
Jackson and Sharpton shared their sentiments as well.
Jackson told Axios in February that he supports “the call [to ban fracking] with a proper transition … In the meantime, those who are down and out have to have it in the meantime.” Sharpton made similar points.
“I think natural gas is a temporary — I don’t think we ought to make it the end-all, be-all — solution, but in the interim, people in communities of color should not pay the brunt of suffering through cold winters,” Sharpton told Axios. He heads the National Action Network.
Morial, for his part, pushed back on claims that his group’s acceptance of donations from fossil fuel companies biases his position.
“Whenever someone disagrees with what you say, they think, ‘Oh, you must be getting paid,’” Morial said. “It’s condescending, patronizing and racist. I hope you print it. I want them to see it. Because that’s the way we feel.”
Morial, Jackson and Sharpton’s comments came after the National Association for the Advancement of Colored People warned its local chapters in 2019 that oil companies are supposedly trying to manipulate them into supporting their products.
Black communities and average Americans struggle with soaring energy prices. Nearly one in five households are forced to go without food and medicine to pay their energy bill, the Energy Information Administration noted in a 2018 report.
Some places are forced to rely on exported gas as environmental activists pressure officials to forgo natural gas production and distribution.
Officials in Massachusetts and neighboring New Hampshire, for instance, blocked financing in 2016 for the $3 billion Access Northeast Pipeline, which would have helped the state weather an energy crunch in 2018.
The state’s decision to rely principally on green energy hiked gas prices and forced it turn to Russian oil imports.
New England’s energy grid strained to keep up with skyrocketing energy demand in 2018 when arctic temperatures hammered the East Coast. Boston received a shipment of natural gas from an export terminal owned by Novatek — one of the Russian energy giants sanctioned in 2014.
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