wattsupwiththat--2020-03-17--How horses can save the permafrost

How horses can save the permafrost

Permafrost soils in the Arctic are thawing .
As they do , large additional quantities of greenhouse gases could be released , accelerating climate change .
In Russia , experiments are now being conducted in which herds of horses , bison and reindeer are being used to combat this effect .
A study from Universität Hamburg , just released in the Nature journal Scientific Reports , now shows for the first time that this method could indeed significantly slow the loss of permafrost soils .
Theoretically speaking , 80 percent of all permafrost soils around the globe could be preserved @ @ @ @ @ @ @ now been demonstrated by Prof. Christian Beer from Universität Hamburg ’ s Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability ( CEN ) , an expert on the permanently frozen soils found throughout the Northern Hemisphere .
If no action is taken to prevent it , half of the world ’ s permafrost will thaw by 2100 .
The new study explores a somewhat unconventional countermeasure : resettling massive herds of large herbivores .
The inspiration came from Pleistocene Park in Chersky , a city in northeast Russia .
Russian scientists Sergey and Nikita @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , reindeer and horses there more than 20 years ago , and have been observing the effects on the soil ever since .
In winter the permafrost in Chersky is ca .
minus 10 degrees Celsius ; at temperatures down to minus 40 degrees Celsius , the air is far colder .
Thanks to ample snowfall , there is a thick layer of snow cover that insulates the ground from the frigid air , keeping it “ warm.
” When the snow cover is scattered and compressed thanks to the grazing animals ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ dramatically reduced , intensifying the freezing of the permafrost .
“ This type of natural manipulation in ecosystems that are especially relevant for the climate system has barely been researched to date – but holds tremendous potential , ” Beer says .
The long-term experiments conducted in Russia show that , when 100 animals are resettled in a 1 km2 area , they cut the mean snow cover height in half .
Christian Beer and his colleagues wanted to determine what effect this could produce when applied to all Arctic permafrost soils as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ influence , at least in theory , even be enough to mitigate intensive warming of the atmosphere and stop the thawing of the permafrost ?
For the purposes of his study , Beer used a special climate model that can simulate such temperature processes on the land surface over the course of an entire year .
The results show : if emissions continue to rise unchecked ( scenario RCP 8.5 in the latest IPCC Assessment Report ) , we can expect to see a 3.8-degree Celsius increase in permafrost temperatures , which would @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
In contrast , with animal herds the ground would only warm by ca .
2.1 degrees – 44 percent less , which would be enough to preserve 80 percent of the current soils , as the model shows .
“ It may be utopian to imaging resettling wild animal herds in all the permafrost regions of the Northern Hemisphere , ” the Earth system expert concedes .
“ But the results indicate that using fewer animals would still produce a cooling effect .
What we ’ ve shown here is a promising @ @ @ @ @ @ @ permanently frozen soils , and with it , the decomposition and release of the enormous carbon stockpiles they contain.
” Beer and his team also considered potential side effects of the approach .
For example , in summer the animals destroy the cooling moss layer on the ground , which warms it additionally .
This aspect was also taken into account in the simulations , but the positive impact of the snow effect in winter is several times greater .
As a next step , Beer plans to collaborate with biologists , in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ actually spread across the landscape .
Original article : Beer C , Zimov N , Olofsson J , Porada P , Zimov S : Protection of Permafrost Soils from Thawing by Increasing Herbivore Density ( 2020 ) ; Scientific Reports

New mitigation strategy bears great potential
University of Hamburg
Permafrost soils in the Arctic are thawing. As they do, large additional quantities of greenhouse gases could be released, accelerating climate change. In Russia, experiments are now being conducted in which herds of horses, bison and reindeer are being used to combat this effect. A study from Universität Hamburg, just released in the Nature journal Scientific Reports, now shows for the first time that this method could indeed significantly slow the loss of permafrost soils.
Theoretically speaking, 80 percent of all permafrost soils around the globe could be preserved until the year 2100, as has now been demonstrated by Prof. Christian Beer from Universität Hamburg’s Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability (CEN), an expert on the permanently frozen soils found throughout the Northern Hemisphere. If no action is taken to prevent it, half of the world’s permafrost will thaw by 2100. The new study explores a somewhat unconventional countermeasure: resettling massive herds of large herbivores.
The inspiration came from Pleistocene Park in Chersky, a city in northeast Russia. Russian scientists Sergey and Nikita Zimov resettled herds of bison, wisents, reindeer and horses there more than 20 years ago, and have been observing the effects on the soil ever since. In winter the permafrost in Chersky is ca. minus 10 degrees Celsius; at temperatures down to minus 40 degrees Celsius, the air is far colder. Thanks to ample snowfall, there is a thick layer of snow cover that insulates the ground from the frigid air, keeping it “warm.” When the snow cover is scattered and compressed thanks to the grazing animals’ stamping hooves, its insulating effect is dramatically reduced, intensifying the freezing of the permafrost. “This type of natural manipulation in ecosystems that are especially relevant for the climate system has barely been researched to date – but holds tremendous potential,” Beer says.
The long-term experiments conducted in Russia show that, when 100 animals are resettled in a 1 km2 area, they cut the mean snow cover height in half. Christian Beer and his colleagues wanted to determine what effect this could produce when applied to all Arctic permafrost soils as a whole. Could the animals’ influence, at least in theory, even be enough to mitigate intensive warming of the atmosphere and stop the thawing of the permafrost?
For the purposes of his study, Beer used a special climate model that can simulate such temperature processes on the land surface over the course of an entire year. The results show: if emissions continue to rise unchecked (scenario RCP 8.5 in the latest IPCC Assessment Report), we can expect to see a 3.8-degree Celsius increase in permafrost temperatures, which would cause half of all permafrost to thaw. In contrast, with animal herds the ground would only warm by ca. 2.1 degrees – 44 percent less, which would be enough to preserve 80 percent of the current soils, as the model shows.
“It may be utopian to imaging resettling wild animal herds in all the permafrost regions of the Northern Hemisphere,” the Earth system expert concedes. “But the results indicate that using fewer animals would still produce a cooling effect. What we’ve shown here is a promising method for slowing the loss of our permanently frozen soils, and with it, the decomposition and release of the enormous carbon stockpiles they contain.”
Beer and his team also considered potential side effects of the approach. For example, in summer the animals destroy the cooling moss layer on the ground, which warms it additionally. This aspect was also taken into account in the simulations, but the positive impact of the snow effect in winter is several times greater. As a next step, Beer plans to collaborate with biologists, in order to investigate how the animals would actually spread across the landscape.
###
Original article: Beer C, Zimov N, Olofsson J, Porada P, Zimov S: Protection of Permafrost Soils from Thawing by Increasing Herbivore Density (2020); Scientific Reports
Link: http://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-60938-y
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-020-60938-y
Pictures Pleistocene Park (free download):
Photo credit all pictures: Pleistocene Park
https://www.cen.uni-hamburg.de/en/about-cen/news/11-news-2020/2020-03-17-permafrost-pferde-beer.html
From EurekAlert!
0 0 votes Article Rating
Share this: Print
Email
Facebook
Twitter
GETTR
Telegram
Like this: Like Loading...


wattsupwiththat--2020-03-17--An effective treatment for #Coronavirus #COVID-19 has been found in a common anti-malarial drug

Encouraging news : three new medical studies show a commonly available anti-malaria drug known as chloroquine aka chloroquine phosphate is showing strong results against COVID-19 infections in both China and South Korea .
Excerpts from three studies , including one published in Nature are below .
In consultation with Stanford University School of Medicine , UAB School of Medicine and National Academy of Sciences researchers .
Recent guidelines from South Korea and China report that chloroquine is an effective antiviral therapeutic treatment against Coronavirus Disease 2019 .
Use of chloroquine ( tablets ) is showing favorable outcomes in humans infected @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and shorter hospital stay .
US CDC research shows that chloroquine also has strong potential as a prophylactic ( preventative ) measure against coronavirus in the lab , while we wait for a vaccine to be developed .
Chloroquine is an inexpensive , globally available drug that has been in widespread human use since 1945 against malaria , autoimmune and various other conditions .
The U.S. CDC and World Health Organization have not published treatment measures against Coronavirus disease 2019 ( “ COVID-19 ” ) .
Medical centers are starting to have issues @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ideally a preventative measure , are needed .
South Korea and China have had significantly more exposure and time to analyze diagnostic , treatment and preventative options .
The U.S. , Europe and the rest of the world can learn from their experience .
According to former FDA commissioner , board member of Pfizer and Illumina , Scott Gotlieb MD , the world can learn the most about COVID-19 by paying closest attention to the response of countries that have had significant exposure to COVID-19 before the U.S. and Europe .
[ 1 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ Chloroquine ( also known as chloroquine phosphate ) is an antimalarial medicine… Chloroquine is available in the United States by prescription only… Chloroquine can be prescribed for either prevention or treatment of malaria .
Chloroquine can be prescribed to adults and children of all ages .
It can also be safely taken by pregnant women and nursing mothers.
” [ 2 ] CDC research also shows that “ chloroquine can affect virus infection in many ways , and the antiviral effect depends in part on the extent to which the virus utilizes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ widely used to treat human diseases , such as malaria , amoebiosis , HIV , and autoimmune diseases , without significant detrimental side effects.
” [ 3 ] The treatment guidelines of both South Korea and China against COVID-19 are generally consistent , outlining chloroquine as an effective treatment .
Specifically , according to the Korea Biomedical Review , in February 2020 in South Korea , the COVID-19 Central Clinical Task Force , composed of physicians and experts treating patients agreed upon treatment principles for patients with COVID-19 .
[ 4 ] In @ @ @ @ @ @ @ National Health Commission , General Office of the State Administration of Traditional Chinese Medicine as well as a Multi-Center Collaborative Group of Guangdong Provincial Department of Science and Technology and Guangdong Provincial Health Comp and the China National Center for Biotechnology Development have established effective treatment measures based on human studies .
[ 5 ] According to their research ( reported in Clinical Trials Arena ) , “ Data from the drug ’ s [ chloroquine ] studies showed ‘ certain curative effect ’ with ‘ fairly good efficacy ’ … patients treated @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fever , improvement of lung CT images , and required a shorter time to recover compared to parallel groups .
The percentage of patients with negative viral nucleic acid tests was also higher with the anti-malarial drug… Chloroquine has so far shown no obvious serious adverse reactions in more than 100 participants in the trials… Chloroquine was selected after several screening rounds of thousands of existing drugs .
Chloroquine is undergoing further trials in more than ten hospitals in Beijing , Guangdong province and Hunnan province.
” [ 6 ] According to research @ @ @ @ @ @ @ strong antiviral effects on SARS coronavirus , both prophylactically and therapeutically .
SARS coronavirus has significant similarities to COVID-19 .
Specifically , the CDC research was completed in primate cells using chloroquine ’ s well known function of elevating endosomal pH .
The results show that “ We have identified chloroquine as an effective antiviral agent for SARS-CoV in cell culture conditions , as evidenced by its inhibitory effect when the drug was added prior to infection or after the initiation and establishment of infection .
The fact that chloroquine exerts an antiviral @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that it is likely to have both prophylactic and therapeutic advantages.
” The study shows that chloroquine is effective in preventing SARS-CoV infection in cell culture if the drug is added to the cells 24 h prior to infection .
Prophylactic effect of chloroquine .
Vero E6 cells pre-treated with chloroquine for 20 hrs .
Chloroquine-containing media were removed and the cells were washed with phosphate buffered saline before they were infected with SARS-CoV ( 0.5 multiplicity of infection ) for 1 h in the absence of chloroquine .
Virus was then removed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ( Invitrogen ) for 16–18 h in the absence of chloroquine .
SARS-CoV antigens were stained with virus-specific HMAF , followed by FITC-conjugated secondary antibodies .
( A ) The concentration of chloroquine used is indicated on the top of each panel .
( B ) SARS-CoV antigen-positive cells at three random locations were captured by using a digital camera , the number of antigen-positive cells was determined , and the average inhibition was calculated .
Percent inhibition was obtained by considering the untreated control as 0 % inhibition .
The vertical bars @ @ @ @ @ @ @ addition , the study also shows that chloroquine was very effective even when the drug was added 3–5 h after infection , suggesting an antiviral effect even after the establishment of infection .
The UK has banned the export of Chloroquine [ 13 ] As of February 26 , 2020 , the UK government has added chloroquine to the list of medicines that can not be parallel exported from the UK .
Chloroquine was never on this list before .
This likely happened because of the growing body of evidence of chloroquine ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ February , Chongqing Kangle Pharmaceutical was requested by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology , Consumption Division to promptly increase the manufacturing and production of the active pharmaceutical ingredients chloroquine phosphate despite slowed production during the Chinese New Year .
Chloroquine can both both prevent and treat malaria .
Chloroquine can prevent and treat coronavirus in primate cells ( Figure 1 and Figure 2 ) .
According to South Korean and China human treatment guidelines , chloroquine is effective in treating COVID-19 .
Given chloroquine ’ s human safety profile and existence @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the U.S. , Europe and the rest of the world .
Medical doctors may be reluctant to prescribe chloroquine to treat COVID-19 since it is not FDA approved for this use .
The United States of America and other countries should immediately authorize and indemnify medical doctors for prescribing chloroquine to treat COVID-19 .
We must explore whether chloroquine can safely serve as a preventative measure prior to infection of COVID-19 to stop further spread of this highly contagious virus .
Then there ’ s this second study : Breakthrough : Chloroquine phosphate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ COVID-19 associated pneumonia in clinical studiesJianjun Gao , Zhenxue Tian , Xu Yang The coronavirus disease 2019 ( COVID-19 ) virus is spreading rapidly , and scientists are endeavoring to discover drugs for its efficacious treatment in China .
Chloroquine phosphate , an old drug for treatment of malaria , is shown to have apparent efficacy and acceptable safety against COVID-19 associated pneumonia in multicenter clinical trials conducted in China .
The drug is recommended to be included in the next version of the Guidelines for the Prevention , Diagnosis , and Treatment @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the National Health Commission of the People ’ s Republic of China for treatment of COVID-19 infection in larger populations in the future .
Finally , there ’ s a new study in the prestigious journal Nature : Remdesivir and chloroquine effectively inhibit the recently emerged novel coronavirus ( 2019-nCoV ) in vitro Chloroquine , a widely-used anti-malarial and autoimmune disease drug , has recently been reported as a potential broad-spectrum antiviral drug.8,9 Chloroquine is known to block virus infection by increasing endosomal pH required for virus/cell fusion , as well as interfering @ @ @ @ @ @ @ SARS-CoV.10 Our time-of-addition assay demonstrated that chloroquine functioned at both entry , and at post-entry stages of the 2019-nCoV infection in Vero E6 cells ( Fig .
1c , d ) .
Besides its antiviral activity , chloroquine has an immune-modulating activity , which may synergistically enhance its antiviral effect in vivo .
Chloroquine is widely distributed in the whole body , including lung , after oral administration .
The EC value of chloroquine against the 2019-nCoV in Vero E6 cells was 6.90 μM , which can be clinically achievable as demonstrated in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ received 500 mg administration.11 Chloroquine is a cheap and a safe drug that has been used for more than 70 years and , therefore , it is potentially clinically applicable against the 2019-nCoV .
Our findings reveal that remdesivir and chloroquine are highly effective in the control of 2019-nCoV infection in vitro .
Since these compounds have been used in human patients with a safety track record and shown to be effective against various ailments , we suggest that they should be assessed in human patients suffering from the novel coronavirus disease .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ in Margosa Tree Bark and Cinchona succirubra , Peruvian Bark Tablets of bark extract are widely available in tablet form , from many sources , including Amazon.com here .
There ’ s also quinine in Tonic Water , which is available just about anywhere at any grocery or liquor store and also at Amazon : Tonic water is a soft drink containing quinine , which gives it a bitter taste .
Quinine is a common treatment for malaria .
Quinine comes from the bark of the cinchona tree .

UPDATE: A Covid-19 case correlation between malarial and non-malarial countries has been plotted by Dr. Roy Spencer, and the results are stunning – see below.
Encouraging news: three new medical studies show a commonly available anti-malaria drug known as chloroquine aka chloroquine phosphate is showing strong results against COVID-19 infections in both China and South Korea. Excerpts from three studies, including one published in Nature are below.
quinine word in a dictionary. quinine concept.
An Effective Treatment for Coronavirus (COVID-19)
Presented by: James M. Todaro, MD and Gregory J. Rigano, Esq.
In consultation with Stanford University School of Medicine, UAB School of Medicine and National Academy of Sciences researchers.
SPANISH: https://docs.google.com/document/d/e/2PACX-1vR1adodKPhWalV9djnerI2x_v1LGgGyhZZxpl0O5r-ZNyDdagqFq1rTCxXBqaeicfxgvypDOqKCZVyV/pub
Translation by: Celia Martínez-Aceves (Yale B.S. Candidate 2021), Martín Martínez (MIT B.S. 2017)
Summary
Recent guidelines from South Korea and China report that chloroquine is an effective antiviral therapeutic treatment against Coronavirus Disease 2019. Use of chloroquine (tablets) is showing favorable outcomes in humans infected with Coronavirus including faster time to recovery and shorter hospital stay. US CDC research shows that chloroquine also has strong potential as a prophylactic (preventative) measure against coronavirus in the lab, while we wait for a vaccine to be developed. Chloroquine is an inexpensive, globally available drug that has been in widespread human use since 1945 against malaria, autoimmune and various other conditions.
Chloroquine: C 18 H 26 ClN 3
Background
The U.S. CDC and World Health Organization have not published treatment measures against Coronavirus disease 2019 (“COVID-19”). Medical centers are starting to have issues with traditional protocols. Treatments, and ideally a preventative measure, are needed. South Korea and China have had significantly more exposure and time to analyze diagnostic, treatment and preventative options. The U.S., Europe and the rest of the world can learn from their experience. According to former FDA commissioner, board member of Pfizer and Illumina, Scott Gotlieb MD, the world can learn the most about COVID-19 by paying closest attention to the response of countries that have had significant exposure to COVID-19 before the U.S. and Europe.[1]
As per the U.S. CDC, “Chloroquine (also known as chloroquine phosphate) is an antimalarial medicine… Chloroquine is available in the United States by prescription only… Chloroquine can be prescribed for either prevention or treatment of malaria. Chloroquine can be prescribed to adults and children of all ages. It can also be safely taken by pregnant women and nursing mothers.”[2]
CDC research also shows that “chloroquine can affect virus infection in many ways, and the antiviral effect depends in part on the extent to which the virus utilizes endosomes for entry. Chloroquine has been widely used to treat human diseases, such as malaria, amoebiosis, HIV, and autoimmune diseases, without significant detrimental side effects.”[3]
The treatment guidelines of both South Korea and China against COVID-19 are generally consistent, outlining chloroquine as an effective treatment.
Specifically, according to the Korea Biomedical Review, in February 2020 in South Korea, the COVID-19 Central Clinical Task Force, composed of physicians and experts treating patients agreed upon treatment principles for patients with COVID-19.[4] In China, the General Office of the National Health Commission, General Office of the State Administration of Traditional Chinese Medicine as well as a Multi-Center Collaborative Group of Guangdong Provincial Department of Science and Technology and Guangdong Provincial Health Comp and the China National Center for Biotechnology Development have established effective treatment measures based on human studies.[5]
According to their research (reported in Clinical Trials Arena),
“Data from the drug’s [chloroquine] studies showed ‘certain curative effect’ with ‘fairly good efficacy’ … patients treated with chloroquine demonstrated a better drop in fever, improvement of lung CT images, and required a shorter time to recover compared to parallel groups. The percentage of patients with negative viral nucleic acid tests was also higher with the anti-malarial drug… Chloroquine has so far shown no obvious serious adverse reactions in more than 100 participants in the trials… Chloroquine was selected after several screening rounds of thousands of existing drugs. Chloroquine is undergoing further trials in more than ten hospitals in Beijing, Guangdong province and Hunnan province.”[6]
…
Chloroquine as a prophylactic (preventative) measure against COVID-19[11]
According to research by the US CDC, chloroquine has strong antiviral effects on SARS coronavirus, both prophylactically and therapeutically. SARS coronavirus has significant similarities to COVID-19. Specifically, the CDC research was completed in primate cells using chloroquine’s well known function of elevating endosomal pH. The results show that “We have identified chloroquine as an effective antiviral agent for SARS-CoV in cell culture conditions, as evidenced by its inhibitory effect when the drug was added prior to infection or after the initiation and establishment of infection. The fact that chloroquine exerts an antiviral effect during pre- and post-infection conditions suggest that it is likely to have both prophylactic and therapeutic advantages.”
The study shows that chloroquine is effective in preventing SARS-CoV infection in cell culture if the drug is added to the cells 24 h prior to infection.
FIGURE 1
Prophylactic effect of chloroquine. Vero E6 cells pre-treated with chloroquine for 20 hrs. Chloroquine-containing media were removed and the cells were washed with phosphate buffered saline before they were infected with SARS-CoV (0.5 multiplicity of infection) for 1 h in the absence of chloroquine. Virus was then removed and the cells were maintained in Opti-MEM (Invitrogen) for 16–18 h in the absence of chloroquine. SARS-CoV antigens were stained with virus-specific HMAF, followed by FITC-conjugated secondary antibodies. (A) The concentration of chloroquine used is indicated on the top of each panel. (B) SARS-CoV antigen-positive cells at three random locations were captured by using a digital camera, the number of antigen-positive cells was determined, and the average inhibition was calculated. Percent inhibition was obtained by considering the untreated control as 0% inhibition. The vertical bars represent the range of SEM.
…
In addition, the study also shows that chloroquine was very effective even when the drug was added 3–5 h after infection, suggesting an antiviral effect even after the establishment of infection.
…
The UK has banned the export of Chloroquine[13]
As of February 26, 2020, the UK government has added chloroquine to the list of medicines that cannot be parallel exported from the UK. Chloroquine was never on this list before. This likely happened because of the growing body of evidence of chloroquine’s effectiveness against coronavirus.
China prioritizes internal use of Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients (APIs) including Chloroquine[14]
In early February, Chongqing Kangle Pharmaceutical was requested by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Consumption Division to promptly increase the manufacturing and production of the active pharmaceutical ingredients chloroquine phosphate despite slowed production during the Chinese New Year.
…
Conclusion
Chloroquine can both both prevent and treat malaria. Chloroquine can prevent and treat coronavirus in primate cells (Figure 1 and Figure 2). According to South Korean and China human treatment guidelines, chloroquine is effective in treating COVID-19. Given chloroquine’s human safety profile and existence, it can be implemented today in the U.S., Europe and the rest of the world. Medical doctors may be reluctant to prescribe chloroquine to treat COVID-19 since it is not FDA approved for this use. The United States of America and other countries should immediately authorize and indemnify medical doctors for prescribing chloroquine to treat COVID-19. We must explore whether chloroquine can safely serve as a preventative measure prior to infection of COVID-19 to stop further spread of this highly contagious virus.
Full study available here
Then there’s this second study:
Breakthrough: Chloroquine phosphate has shown apparent efficacy in treatment of COVID-19 associated pneumonia in clinical studiesJianjun Gao, Zhenxue Tian, Xu Yang
Abstract
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) virus is spreading rapidly, and scientists are endeavoring to discover drugs for its efficacious treatment in China. Chloroquine phosphate, an old drug for treatment of malaria, is shown to have apparent efficacy and acceptable safety against COVID-19 associated pneumonia in multicenter clinical trials conducted in China. The drug is recommended to be included in the next version of the Guidelines for the Prevention, Diagnosis, and Treatment of Pneumonia Caused by COVID-19 issued by the National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China for treatment of COVID-19 infection in larger populations in the future.
https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/bst/14/1/14_2020.01047/_article
Finally, there’s a new study in the prestigious journal Nature:
Remdesivir and chloroquine effectively inhibit the recently emerged novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in vitro
Excerpt:
Chloroquine, a widely-used anti-malarial and autoimmune disease drug, has recently been reported as a potential broad-spectrum antiviral drug.8,9 Chloroquine is known to block virus infection by increasing endosomal pH required for virus/cell fusion, as well as interfering with the glycosylation of cellular receptors of SARS-CoV.10 Our time-of-addition assay demonstrated that chloroquine functioned at both entry, and at post-entry stages of the 2019-nCoV infection in Vero E6 cells (Fig. 1c, d). Besides its antiviral activity, chloroquine has an immune-modulating activity, which may synergistically enhance its antiviral effect in vivo. Chloroquine is widely distributed in the whole body, including lung, after oral administration. The EC 90 value of chloroquine against the 2019-nCoV in Vero E6 cells was 6.90 μM, which can be clinically achievable as demonstrated in the plasma of rheumatoid arthritis patients who received 500 mg administration.11 Chloroquine is a cheap and a safe drug that has been used for more than 70 years and, therefore, it is potentially clinically applicable against the 2019-nCoV.
Our findings reveal that remdesivir and chloroquine are highly effective in the control of 2019-nCoV infection in vitro. Since these compounds have been used in human patients with a safety track record and shown to be effective against various ailments, we suggest that they should be assessed in human patients suffering from the novel coronavirus disease.
Study: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41422-020-0282-0?fbclid=IwAR2JbbZU_Hl7uLjuOTDhrNnmczzyEFvnIhY8QHv9ghY5fYBvX0IsmnhD07w
A commonly available over-the-counter quinine source exists in Margosa Tree Bark and Cinchona succirubra, Peruvian Bark
Tablets of bark extract are widely available in tablet form, from many sources, including Amazon.com here.
There’s also quinine in Tonic Water, which is available just about anywhere at any grocery or liquor store and also at Amazon:
Tonic water is a soft drink containing quinine, which gives it a bitter taste. Quinine is a common treatment for malaria. Quinine comes from the bark of the cinchona tree.
UPDATE:
From Facebook, Dr. Roy Spencer adds this new information.- Anthony
On the subject of using antimalarial drugs for COVID-19 treatment, I’ve compared COVID-19 cases versus malaria incidence by country….
This is amazing. I downloaded all of the data for 234 countries, incidence of total COVID-19 cases (as of 3/17/2020) versus the incidence of malaria in those countries (various sources, kinda messy matching everything up in Excel).
RESULTS, Multi-country average malaria cases per thousand, COVID-19 cases per million, in three classes of countries based on malaria incidence:
Top 40 Malaria countries: 212 malaria = 0.2 COVID-19;
Next 40 Malaria countries: 7.3 malaria = 10.1 COVID-19
Remaining (81-234) countries: 0.00 malaria = 68.7 COVID-19
Again, the units are Malaria cases per thousand “population at risk”, and COVID-19 cases per million total population.
In all my years of data analysis I have never seen such a stark and strong relationship: Countries with malaria basically have no COVID-19 cases (at least not yet).
Additional support for antimalarial drugs for COVID-19 treatment comes from this investigation linked below.
The map says it all: COVID-19 is where Malaria is not.
https://docs.google.com/document/d/12YDytbAsZaruGlhFO7eTTgxSH_BuxJtwFmbhqpkPPSk/mobilebasic?fbclid=IwAR2wXhG5woobpV5DAuHxnf7YOxalQiCkPMX-rUL2z6SIa0AJGovbJ9ATq7A
5 2 votes Article Rating
Share this: Print
Email
Facebook
Twitter
GETTR
Telegram
Like this: Like Loading...


wattsupwiththat--2020-03-17--GreenBiz: “climate change could make the coronavirus seem like the good old days”

Greens desperately trying to harness concern about Covid-19 for their fake climate crisis .
It ’ s too early to tell whether COVID-19 is linked in any way to the climate crisis .
Maybe it is , maybe it isn ’ t ; we ’ ll likely never know for certain .
Still , consider the global health crisis currently upon us as a warm-up act for a climate-changing world .
In the immortal words of the ‘ 70s rock band Bachman-Turner Overdrive , “ You ain ’ t seen nothing yet.
” For nearly two decades , health officials @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rise of infectious disease from a warming climate .
The Pentagon , for example , started raising concern back in 2003 in an independent study commissioned by the U.S. Department of Defense .
It warned that “ As famine , disease and weather-related disasters strike due to the abrupt climate change , many countries ’ needs will exceed their carrying capacity.
” Such warnings seem both prescient and obvious today , given the global scramble to corral COVID-19 .
But it also provides an opportunity to plan for the next infectious outbreak , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , climate change could make the coronavirus seem like the good old days .
“ Infectious disease transmission is sensitive to local , small-scale differences in weather , human modification of the landscape , the diversity of animal hosts , and human behavior that affects vector-human contact , among other factors , ” write the authors of the Third National Climate Assessment , produced by more than 300 experts guided by a 60-member Federal Advisory Committee and reviewed by the National Academy of Sciences .
It warned : The public health system is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to these growing disease risks .
The introduction of new diseases into non-immune populations has been and continues to be a major challenge in public health .
There are concerns that climate change may provide opportunities for pathogens to expand or shift their geographic ranges .
Claims of a link between global warming and disease are nonsense .
Even mosquito borne diseases thrive in Arctic climates ; in the 19th century , in the depths of the Little Ice Age , endemic Malaria was a major killer disease in Northern Europe .
But @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Is there any doubt that in the wake of the Covid-19 crisis , medical research will receive a lot more attention ?
A decade from now , if a new disease like Covid-19 emerges , it will be contained and cured so fast we won ’ t even know there was a problem .
Even the Covid-19 crisis may be solved much faster than people fear .
The unprecedented focus on Coronavirus is producing results , everything from vaccine trials to experimental drug therapies , partly based on experimental treatments developed during the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and promising results are emerging .
Remdesivir and chloroquine effectively inhibit the recently emerged novel coronavirus ( 2019-nCoV ) in vitro In December 2019 , a novel pneumonia caused by a previously unknown pathogen emerged in Wuhan , a city of 11 million people in central China .
The initial cases were linked to exposures in a seafood market in Wuhan.1 As of January 27 , 2020 , the Chinese authorities reported 2835 confirmed cases in mainland China , including 81 deaths .
Additionally , 19 confirmed cases were identified in Hong @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 39 imported cases were identified in Thailand , Japan , South Korea , United States , Vietnam , Singapore , Nepal , France , Australia and Canada .
The pathogen was soon identified as a novel coronavirus ( 2019-nCoV ) , which is closely related to sever acute respiratory syndrome CoV ( SARS-CoV ) .2 Currently , there is no specific treatment against the new virus .
Therefore , identifying effective antiviral agents to combat the disease is urgently needed .
An efficient approach to drug discovery is to test whether the existing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ viral infections .
The 2019-nCoV belongs to Betacoronavirus which also contains SARS-CoV and Middle East respiratory syndrome CoV ( MERS-CoV ) .
Several drugs , such as ribavirin , interferon , lopinavir-ritonavir , corticosteroids , have been used in patients with SARS or MERS , although the efficacy of some drugs remains controversial.3 In this study , we evaluated the antiviral efficiency of five FAD-approved drugs including ribavirin , penciclovir , nitazoxanide , nafamostat , chloroquine and two well-known broad-spectrum antiviral drugs remdesivir ( GS-5734 ) and favipiravir ( T-705 ) against a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Imagine if all the money wasted on useless renewables had been spent on something useful , like medical research .
Where would we be today , if the billions which have been wasted on wind and solar subsidies had instead been spent on finding new and better ways to cure disease ?
The last thing we all need is for climate fear-mongers to drag the world into a new medical research dark age , by sucking all the money out of the system with their ever growing demands for special consideration and government @ @

Guest essay by Eric Worrall
Greens desperately trying to harness concern about Covid-19 for their fake climate crisis.
COVID-19 and climate change: A healthy dose of reality Joel Makower Monday, March 16, 2020 – 2:11am It’s too early to tell whether COVID-19 is linked in any way to the climate crisis. Maybe it is, maybe it isn’t; we’ll likely never know for certain. Still, consider the global health crisis currently upon us as a warm-up act for a climate-changing world. In the immortal words of the ‘70s rock band Bachman-Turner Overdrive, “You ain’t seen nothing yet.” For nearly two decades, health officials around the world have warned about the rise of infectious disease from a warming climate. The Pentagon, for example, started raising concern back in 2003 in an independent study commissioned by the U.S. Department of Defense. It warned that “As famine, disease and weather-related disasters strike due to the abrupt climate change, many countries’ needs will exceed their carrying capacity.” … Such warnings seem both prescient and obvious today, given the global scramble to corral COVID-19. But it also provides an opportunity to plan for the next infectious outbreak, and the ones after that. Indeed, climate change could make the coronavirus seem like the good old days. “Infectious disease transmission is sensitive to local, small-scale differences in weather, human modification of the landscape, the diversity of animal hosts, and human behavior that affects vector-human contact, among other factors,” write the authors of the Third National Climate Assessment, produced by more than 300 experts guided by a 60-member Federal Advisory Committee and reviewed by the National Academy of Sciences. It warned: The public health system is not fully prepared to monitor or respond to these growing disease risks. The introduction of new diseases into non-immune populations has been and continues to be a major challenge in public health. There are concerns that climate change may provide opportunities for pathogens to expand or shift their geographic ranges. … Read more: https://www.greenbiz.com/article/covid-19-and-climate-change-healthy-dose-reality
Claims of a link between global warming and disease are nonsense. Even mosquito borne diseases thrive in Arctic climates; in the 19th century, in the depths of the Little Ice Age, endemic Malaria was a major killer disease in Northern Europe.
But what if I’m wrong?
Is there any doubt that in the wake of the Covid-19 crisis, medical research will receive a lot more attention? A decade from now, if a new disease like Covid-19 emerges, it will be contained and cured so fast we won’t even know there was a problem.
Even the Covid-19 crisis may be solved much faster than people fear. The unprecedented focus on Coronavirus is producing results, everything from vaccine trials to experimental drug therapies, partly based on experimental treatments developed during the SARS and MERS outbreaks are being tested, and promising results are emerging.
From February;
Remdesivir and chloroquine effectively inhibit the recently emerged novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in vitro Manli Wang, Ruiyuan Cao, Leike Zhang, Xinglou Yang, Jia Liu, Mingyue Xu, Zhengli Shi, Zhihong Hu, Wu Zhong & Gengfu Xiao Dear Editor, In December 2019, a novel pneumonia caused by a previously unknown pathogen emerged in Wuhan, a city of 11 million people in central China. The initial cases were linked to exposures in a seafood market in Wuhan.1 As of January 27, 2020, the Chinese authorities reported 2835 confirmed cases in mainland China, including 81 deaths. Additionally, 19 confirmed cases were identified in Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan, and 39 imported cases were identified in Thailand, Japan, South Korea, United States, Vietnam, Singapore, Nepal, France, Australia and Canada. The pathogen was soon identified as a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV), which is closely related to sever acute respiratory syndrome CoV (SARS-CoV).2 Currently, there is no specific treatment against the new virus. Therefore, identifying effective antiviral agents to combat the disease is urgently needed. An efficient approach to drug discovery is to test whether the existing antiviral drugs are effective in treating related viral infections. The 2019-nCoV belongs to Betacoronavirus which also contains SARS-CoV and Middle East respiratory syndrome CoV (MERS-CoV). Several drugs, such as ribavirin, interferon, lopinavir-ritonavir, corticosteroids, have been used in patients with SARS or MERS, although the efficacy of some drugs remains controversial.3 In this study, we evaluated the antiviral efficiency of five FAD-approved drugs including ribavirin, penciclovir, nitazoxanide, nafamostat, chloroquine and two well-known broad-spectrum antiviral drugs remdesivir (GS-5734) and favipiravir (T-705) against a clinical isolate of 2019-nCoV in vitro. … Read more: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41422-020-0282-0
Imagine if all the money wasted on useless renewables had been spent on something useful, like medical research. Where would we be today, if the billions which have been wasted on wind and solar subsidies had instead been spent on finding new and better ways to cure disease?
The last thing we all need is for climate fear-mongers to drag the world into a new medical research dark age, by sucking all the money out of the system with their ever growing demands for special consideration and government subsidies.
0 0 votes Article Rating
Share this: Print
Email
Facebook
Twitter
GETTR
Telegram
Like this: Like Loading...


Massive Beauty

NASA ’ s Juno mission captured this look at the southern hemisphere of Jupiter on Feb. 17 , 2020 , during the spacecraft ’ s most recent close approach to the giant planet .
Not only is Jupiter the largest planet orbiting the Sun , it contains more than twice the amount of material of all other objects in the solar system combined — including all the planets , moons , asteroids and comets .
In composition , Jupiter resembles a star , and scientists estimate that if it had been at least 80 times more massive at its formation @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of star called a red dwarf rather than a planet .
While the universe ’ s most common elements , hydrogen and helium , make up most of Jupiter ’ s mass , the striking clouds that are visible at the top of its atmosphere are composed mostly of ammonia and hydrogen sulfide .
This high-resolution view is a composite of four images captured by the JunoCam imager and assembled by citizen scientist Kevin M. Gill .
The images were taken on Feb. 17 , 2020 , between 10:31 a.m. and 11:00 a.m. @ @ @ @ @ @ @ EST ) .
During that time , the spacecraft was between about 30,700 and 62,400 miles ( 49,500 and 100,400 kilometers ) from the tops of the planet ’ s clouds , at latitudes between about 50 and 68 degrees South .
JunoCam ’ s raw images are available for the public to peruse and process into image products at https : //missionjuno.swri.edu/junocam/processing .
More information about Juno is at https : //www.nasa.gov/juno and https : //missionjuno.swri.edu .

From NASA
NASA’s Juno mission captured this look at the southern hemisphere of Jupiter on Feb. 17, 2020, during the spacecraft’s most recent close approach to the giant planet.
Not only is Jupiter the largest planet orbiting the Sun, it contains more than twice the amount of material of all other objects in the solar system combined — including all the planets, moons, asteroids and comets. In composition, Jupiter resembles a star, and scientists estimate that if it had been at least 80 times more massive at its formation, it could have become a type of star called a red dwarf rather than a planet.
While the universe’s most common elements, hydrogen and helium, make up most of Jupiter’s mass, the striking clouds that are visible at the top of its atmosphere are composed mostly of ammonia and hydrogen sulfide.
This high-resolution view is a composite of four images captured by the JunoCam imager and assembled by citizen scientist Kevin M. Gill. The images were taken on Feb. 17, 2020, between 10:31 a.m. and 11:00 a.m. PST (1:31 p.m. and 2:00 p.m. EST). During that time, the spacecraft was between about 30,700 and 62,400 miles (49,500 and 100,400 kilometers) from the tops of the planet’s clouds, at latitudes between about 50 and 68 degrees South.
JunoCam’s raw images are available for the public to peruse and process into image products at https://missionjuno.swri.edu/junocam/processing.
More information about Juno is at https://www.nasa.gov/juno and https://missionjuno.swri.edu.
Image credit:
Image data: NASA/JPL-Caltech/SwRI/MSSS
Image processing by Kevin M. Gill, © CC BY
0 0 votes Article Rating
Share this: Print
Email
Facebook
Twitter
GETTR
Telegram
Like this: Like Loading...


wattsupwiththat--2020-03-18--CNN Touts the Climate Benefits of Chinese Coronavirus

The climate alarmist community is repeatedly praising the alleged “ benefits ” of the deadly Covid-19 outbreak .
There ’ s an unlikely beneficiary of coronavirus : The planet Hong Kong ( CNN ) Factories were shuttered and streets were cleared across China ’ s Hubei province as authorities ordered residents to stay home to stop the spread of the coronavirus .
It seems the lockdown had an unintended benefit — blue skies .
The average number of “ good quality air days ” increased 21.5 % in February , compared to the same period last year , according to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Environment .
And Hubei wasn ’ t alone.Satellite images released by NASA and the European Space Agency show a dramatic reduction in nitrogen dioxide emissions — those released by vehicles , power plants and industrial facilities — in major Chinese cities between January and February .
The visible cloud of toxic gas hanging over industrial powerhouses almost disappeared .
“ This is the first time I have seen such a dramatic drop-off over such a wide area for a specific event , ” says Fei Liu , an air quality researcher at NASA @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ I am not surprised because many cities nationwide have taken measures to minimize the spread of the virus .
”

Guest essay by Eric Worrall
The climate alarmist community is repeatedly praising the alleged “benefits” of the deadly Covid-19 outbreak.
There’s an unlikely beneficiary of coronavirus: The planet
By Rebecca Wright, CNN
Updated 1005 GMT (1805 HKT) March 17, 2020
Hong Kong (CNN)Factories were shuttered and streets were cleared across China’s Hubei province as authorities ordered residents to stay home to stop the spread of the coronavirus.
It seems the lockdown had an unintended benefit — blue skies.
The average number of “good quality air days” increased 21.5% in February, compared to the same period last year, according to China’s Ministry of Ecology and Environment. And Hubei wasn’t alone.Satellite images released by NASA and the European Space Agency show a dramatic reduction in nitrogen dioxide emissions — those released by vehicles, power plants and industrial facilities — in major Chinese cities between January and February. The visible cloud of toxic gas hanging over industrial powerhouses almost disappeared.
“This is the first time I have seen such a dramatic drop-off over such a wide area for a specific event,” says Fei Liu, an air quality researcher at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center. “I am not surprised because many cities nationwide have taken measures to minimize the spread of the virus.”
…


wattsupwiththat--2020-03-18--Nashville, TN Area Tornadoes: Just Weather, Not Climate Change

As a weather forecaster , I love being able to break down and forecast extreme and/or noteworthy weather events here in the United States .
Tropical cyclones , nor ’ easters , and Arctic outbreaks are a particular interest of mine .
Yet , throughout this very mild winter with very little barotropic instability and surges of cold air in the Lower 48 , I have found myself bored as of late .
It has been a rinse , wash , and repeat kind of winter with inland Appalachian storm tracks , mild temperatures , and little snowfall for many @ @ @ @ @ @ @ particularly along the east coast , where I dwell .
Now that spring is at our doorstep , severe weather season is about to begin .
Of course , with any type of weather that occurs , someone with zero credibility will attempt to link it to man-made climate change .
Without any disruption in the Northern Hemisphere polar vortex circulations or any significant winter storms sweeping across the Heartland or east coast , climate change activists have been rather quiet over the last couple of months .
With the coronavirus outbreak , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ we are allegedly in a climate emergency － whatever that means － and have now shifted their focus to the coronavirus apocalypse .
Even so , that hasn ’ t stopped some journalists from attempting to reinvigorate the global climate breakdown .
In the early morning hours of Tuesday , March 3 , a series of tornadoes spawned from a parent supercell － rotating － thunderstorm , touched down in Tennessee resulting in at least 24 fatalities and hundreds of injuries.¹ Among the ten reported across Tennessee ( Figure 1 ) , seven @ @ @ @ @ @ @ state and the two worst struck the Nashville area at velocities of 60 to 70 miles per hour ( mph ) .² Just after 12:30 a.m. on March 3 , a tornadic debris signature ( TDS ) showed up on radar about one mile west of John C. Tune Airport in Nashville.¹ Tornadic debris signatures are seen when the radar beam bounces off shrapnel and other debris rather than raindrops or hail .
Figure 2 .
“ A slice through the storm ’ s radar data shows a “ debris ball ” at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ corkscrew updraft high into the storm can be seen .
( Matthew Cappucci/GR2 Analyst ) .
” － Washington Post ‘ s Capital Weather Gang .
Just as the tornado was ravaging the airport － where damages are estimated to be over $ 90 million － the National Weather Service issued a tornado warning.¹ Earlier that evening , the weather service had issued tornado watches , but they were dropped due to a lack of damage reports , according to Mike Rose , a meteorologist.¹ The EF-3 tornado of 165 mile per hour @ @ @ @ @ @ @ plow through the heart of Music City before dissipating just south of Interstate 40 ; it traveled 60.13 miles ( Figure 3 ) .² The stronger tornado was an EF-4 which caused considerable damage to Putnam County between Baxter and Cookeville , Tennessee on a 8.21 mile path ( Figure 4 ) .² Fortunately , the tornado rapidly came to an end just before entering downtown Cookeville.² Despite the mainstream media ’ s widespread coverage of the Tennessee tornadoes , most of their pieces didn ’ t mention climate change being a factor @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
I was honestly surprised .
Even so , this didn ’ t stop some .
David Wallace-Wells , an editor and climate columnist for New York Magazine , Tweeted , I ’ m not aware of any studies that have investigated tornado path lengths in relation to global warming , but I ’ m going to assume that David is just making things up .
Given the complex and small-scale nature of tornadoes and their parent supercell thunderstorms , which require a variety of crucial meteorological and environmental parameters such as instability @ @ @ @ @ @ @ shear , and vary considerably at the mesoscale level on the order of seconds to minutes , or and even occasionally hours , it would be very tough to attribute climate change to tornado path length changes , let alone , tornado frequency assuming there have been any .
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ‘ s ( NOAA ‘ s ) Storm Prediction Center ( SPC ) agrees.³ According to their Tornado FAQ page , Just for some rational thought , the longest path ever carved by a tornado was 218 miles @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Tri-State Tornado Outbreak of March 18 , 1925 .
That particular tornado was on the ground for 3 hours and 37 minutes .
Did global warming play a role in that tornado outbreak ?
Probably not .
As far as Tornado Alley is concerned , the study he was alluding to ( Gensini and Brooks , 2018 ) did not specifically state that [ man-made ] climate change was responsible for the eastward shift of Tornado Alley .
Rather , the study found : Figure 5 .
While the most tornadoes reported @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Plains , there has been a slight decline in the frequency with a larger increase relative to what is considered “ normal ” along the Mississippi River .
－ Gensini and Brooks ( 2018 ) .
The study also concluded that there is a lot of uncertainty regarding whether anthropogenic forcing of the climate system or natural internal variability may be driving these changes : ⁴ So , it is clearly evident that Wallace-Wells didn ’ t actually read the study .
If he had done so , he would have accurately reported @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the paper .
I ’ m not surprised , however , this inaccurate representation of findings in climate studies has unfortunately become a commonplace in mainstream journalism .
There is also evidence that the timing of tornado season has shifted as well , however , causes of this shift is once again unknown .
Is it natural variability ?
Is it man-made climate change ?
Is it both ?
Nobody has a clue .
A study published in the Geophysical Research Letters ( GRL ) , Long and Stoy ( 2014 ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Tornado Alley has become earlier by approximately seven days over the last 60 years ( Figure 6 ) .⁵ Figure 6 .
“ Plot of peak tornado activity for the heart of Tornado Alley .
The Julian day that corresponds to peak tornado activity plotted for each 10 year moving window by variable type for the region , with linear trendlines .
The years on the x axis represent the last year of the associated 10‐year moving average ( e.g.
, 1963 represents 1954–1963 ) .
” － Long and Stoy ( 2014 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ States tornado frequency trends are concerned , there has been little change in EF-1 to EF-5 tornadoes since relatively good records began in the 1950s ( Figure 7 ) .
Violent tornadoes , which are rated as EF-4 or EF-5 on the Enhanced Fujita Scale , have been on a noteworthy decline over the last several decades ( Figure 8 ) .
In fact , 2018 was the first year on record with no reported violent tornadoes .
I contacted Dr. Roy Spencer , a principle research scientist at the University of Alabama @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the statistics show : In order to get a more accurate , but not perfect , representation of United States tornado climatology , I disregarded EF-0 tornadoes from the dataset .
My reasoning behind this is because tornado reports have increased substantially over the last several decades due to over a doubling of Great Plains population since 1950 , and therefore increased public awareness ; more photographic evidence and video footage ; the introduction of NEXRAD Doppler radar in the 1990s ; and an overall increased effort to document tornadoes for both meteorological @ @ @ @ @ @ @ EF-1 intensity , and especially EF-2 and higher , are the most likely to be documented with fairly consistent accuracy since the mid-1950s and early-1960s .
Both the United Nations ’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ( IPCC ) and 4th U.S. National Climate Assessment ( NCA ) agree : ⁶ ⁷ As an aspiring meteorologist myself , I am by no means a denier of man-made climate change .
Indeed , I am in solid agreement with almost every scientist that mankind is responsible for at least some of the warming observed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ do not think climate change is a serious threat to humanity , I do think it ’ s a serious issue that needs to be discussed within the scientific community .
One of the things I love about science is being able to debate things , do research , and explore the unknown .
Extreme weather has always been around as long as documentation , official or unofficial , goes back .
Ridiculous and/or sometimes extreme claims made by a select few scientists , politicians , and even on occasion , the media @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , not actual real-world observations .
Those who choose blame every single weather event , or so it seems , on man-made climate change are not only a roadblock for the progress of our scientific understanding of the issue , they ’ re just practicing a scientifically meaningless self-fulfilling prophecy .
[ 1 ] Cappucci , Matthew .
“ How the Deadly , Destructive Tornadoes Ravaged Nashville on Tuesday.
” The Washington Post .
WP Company , March 3 , 2020. https : //www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/03/03/how-deadly-destructive-tornadoes-ravaged-nashville-tuesday/ .
[ 3 ] Edwards , Roger .
“ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Edwards , SPC ) .
” The Online Tornado FAQ ( by Roger Edwards , SPC ) .
NOAA SPC , April 19 , 2018. https : //www.spc.noaa.gov/faq/tornado/index.html .
[ 4 ] Gensini , Vittorio A. , and Harold E. Brooks .
“ Spatial Trends in United States Tornado Frequency.
” npj Climate and Atmospheric Science 1 , no .
1 ( 2018 ) .
https : //doi.org/10.1038/s41612-018-0048-2 .
[ 5 ] Long , John A. , and Paul C. Stoy .
“ Peak Tornado Activity Is Occurring Earlier in the Heart of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Letters 41 , no .
17 ( October 2014 ) : 6259–64 .
https : //doi.org/10.1002/2014gl061385 .
[ 6 ] Folland , C.K.
, T.R .
Karl , J.R. Christy , R.A. Clarke , G.V .
Gruza , J. Jouzel , M.E .
Mann , J. Oerlemans , M.J. Salinger and S.-W. Wang , 2001 : Observed Climate Variability and Change .
In : Climate Change 2001 : The Scientific Basis .
Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [ Houghton , J.T.
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ , M. Noguer , P.J .
van der Linden , X. Dai , K. Maskell , and C.A .
Johnson ( eds. )
] .
Cambridge University Press , Cambridge , United Kingdom and New York , NY , USA , 881pp .
( PDF ) [ 7 ] Kossin , J.P. , T. Hall , T. Knutson , K.E .
Kunkel , R.J. Trapp , D.E .
Waliser , and M.F .
Wehner , 2017 : Extreme storms .
In : Climate Science Special Report : Fourth National Climate Assessment , Volume @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Fahey , K.A .
Hibbard , D.J .
Dokken , B.C .
Stewart , and T.K .
Maycock ( eds. )
] .
U.S .
Global Change Research Program , Washington , DC , USA , pp .
257-276 , doi:10.7930/J07S7KXX .

Reposted from Chris Marz’s Weather Blog
By Chris Martz on 17 Mar 2020 • ( 2 )
Introduction
As a weather forecaster, I love being able to break down and forecast extreme and/or noteworthy weather events here in the United States. Tropical cyclones, nor’easters, and Arctic outbreaks are a particular interest of mine. Yet, throughout this very mild winter with very little barotropic instability and surges of cold air in the Lower 48, I have found myself bored as of late. It has been a rinse, wash, and repeat kind of winter with inland Appalachian storm tracks, mild temperatures, and little snowfall for many cities east of the Rocky Mountains, particularly along the east coast, where I dwell.
Now that spring is at our doorstep, severe weather season is about to begin. Of course, with any type of extreme weather that occurs, someone with zero credibility will attempt to link it to man-made climate change. Without any disruption in the Northern Hemisphere polar vortex circulations or any significant winter storms sweeping across the Heartland or east coast, climate change activists have been rather quiet over the last couple of months. With the coronavirus outbreak, many of them have seemingly forgotten that we are allegedly in a climate emergency － whatever that means － and have now shifted their focus to the coronavirus apocalypse. Even so, that hasn’t stopped some journalists from attempting to reinvigorate the global climate breakdown.
In the early morning hours of Tuesday, March 3, a series of tornadoes spawned from a parent supercell － rotating － thunderstorm, touched down in Tennessee resulting in at least 24 fatalities and hundreds of injuries.¹ Among the ten reported across Tennessee (Figure 1), seven of them struck the middle of the state and the two worst struck the Nashville area at velocities of 60 to 70 miles per hour (mph).²
Figure 1. “March 2-3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak Map” － NWS Nashville.
The Nashville and Cookeville Tornadoes
Just after 12:30 a.m. on March 3, a tornadic debris signature (TDS) showed up on radar about one mile west of John C. Tune Airport in Nashville.¹ Tornadic debris signatures are seen when the radar beam bounces off shrapnel and other debris rather than raindrops or hail.
Figure 2. “A slice through the storm’s radar data shows a “debris ball” at ground level. The tornado’s corkscrew updraft high into the storm can be seen. (Matthew Cappucci/GR2 Analyst).” － Washington Post‘s Capital Weather Gang.
Just as the tornado was ravaging the airport － where damages are estimated to be over $90 million － the National Weather Service issued a tornado warning.¹ Earlier that evening, the weather service had issued tornado watches, but they were dropped due to a lack of damage reports, according to Mike Rose, a meteorologist.¹ The EF-3 tornado of 165 mile per hour (mph) winds went on to plow through the heart of Music City before dissipating just south of Interstate 40; it traveled 60.13 miles (Figure 3).²
Figure 3. Nashville tornado map － NWS Nashville.
The stronger tornado was an EF-4 which caused considerable damage to Putnam County between Baxter and Cookeville, Tennessee on a 8.21 mile path (Figure 4).² Fortunately, the tornado rapidly came to an end just before entering downtown Cookeville.²
Figure 4. Cookeville tornado map －NWS Nashville.
Did Climate Change Play A Role?
Despite the mainstream media’s widespread coverage of the Tennessee tornadoes, most of their pieces didn’t mention climate change being a factor in the severity of the tornado outbreak. I was honestly surprised. Even so, this didn’t stop some. David Wallace-Wells, an editor and climate columnist for New York Magazine, Tweeted,
I’m not aware of any studies that have investigated tornado path lengths in relation to global warming, but I’m going to assume that David is just making things up. Given the complex and small-scale nature of tornadoes and their parent supercell thunderstorms, which require a variety of crucial meteorological and environmental parameters such as instability, moisture, lift, and wind shear, and vary considerably at the mesoscale level on the order of seconds to minutes, or and even occasionally hours, it would be very tough to attribute climate change to tornado path length changes, let alone, tornado frequency assuming there have been any.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration‘s (NOAA‘s) Storm Prediction Center (SPC) agrees.³ According to their Tornado FAQ page,
“Climate models cannot resolve tornadoes or individual thunderstorms. They can indicate broad-scale shifts in three of the four favorable ingredients for severe thunderstorms (moisture, instability and wind shear), but as any severe weather forecaster can attest, having some favorable factors in place doesn’t guarantee tornadoes. Our physical understanding indicates mixed signals–some ingredients may increase (instability), while others may decrease (shear), in a warmer world. The other key ingredient (storm-scale lift), and to varying extents moisture, instability and shear, depend mostly on day-to-day patterns, and often, even minute-to-minute local weather.” － NOAA SPC: The Online Tornado FAQ, by Roger Edwards.
Just for some rational thought, the longest path ever carved by a tornado was 218 miles long during an EF-5 tornado associated with the Tri-State Tornado Outbreak of March 18, 1925. That particular tornado was on the ground for 3 hours and 37 minutes. Did global warming play a role in that tornado outbreak? Probably not.
As far as Tornado Alley is concerned, the study he was alluding to (Gensini and Brooks, 2018) did not specifically state that [man-made] climate change was responsible for the eastward shift of Tornado Alley. Rather, the study found:
“Negative tendencies of tornado occurrence have been noted in portions of the central and southern Great Plains, while robust positive trends have been documented in portions of the Midwest and Southeast United States.” － Spatial trends in United States tornado frequency (Gensini and Brooks, 2018)
Figure 5. While the most tornadoes reported in the U.S. still occur in the Plains, there has been a slight decline in the frequency with a larger increase relative to what is considered “normal” along the Mississippi River. － Gensini and Brooks (2018).
The study also concluded that there is a lot of uncertainty regarding whether anthropogenic forcing of the climate system or natural internal variability may be driving these changes:⁴
“At this point, it is unclear whether the observed trends in tornado environment and report frequency are due to natural variability or being altered by anthropogenic forcing on the climate system.“ － Spatial trends in United States tornado frequency (Gensini and Brooks, 2018)
So, it is clearly evident that Wallace-Wells didn’t actually read the study. If he had done so, he would have accurately reported what the author’s explicitly stated in the paper. I’m not surprised, however, this inaccurate representation of findings in climate studies has unfortunately become a commonplace in mainstream journalism.
There is also evidence that the timing of tornado season has shifted as well, however, causes of this shift is once again unknown. Is it natural variability? Is it man-made climate change? Is it both? Nobody has a clue. A study published in the Geophysical Research Letters (GRL), Long and Stoy (2014), found that peak tornado activity within Tornado Alley has become earlier by approximately seven days over the last 60 years (Figure 6).⁵
Figure 6. “Plot of peak tornado activity for the heart of Tornado Alley. The Julian day that corresponds to peak tornado activity plotted for each 10 year moving window by variable type for the region, with linear trendlines. The years on the x axis represent the last year of the associated 10‐year moving average (e.g., 1963 represents 1954–1963).” － Long and Stoy (2014).
As far as actual United States tornado frequency trends are concerned, there has been little change in EF-1 to EF-5 tornadoes since relatively good records began in the 1950s (Figure 7).
Figure 7. U.S. annual tornado count, excluding EF-0’s; 1954 － 2020.
Violent tornadoes, which are rated as EF-4 or EF-5 on the Enhanced Fujita Scale, have been on a noteworthy decline over the last several decades (Figure 8). In fact, 2018 was the first year on record with no reported violent tornadoes.
I contacted Dr. Roy Spencer, a principle research scientist at the University of Alabama in Huntsville, and he affirmed what the statistics show:
“The incidence of strong to violent tornadoes in the U.S. has gone down 50% since statistics began in the 1950s. The limiting factor in strong tornado formation is a cold air mass, not warmth, otherwise the tropics would be filled with tornadoes, which is not the case.“ － Dr. Roy Spencer, Ph.D.
Figure 8. U.S. annual violent tornado (EF-4 or EF-5) counts; 1954 － 2020.
In order to get a more accurate, but not perfect, representation of United States tornado climatology, I disregarded EF-0 tornadoes from the dataset. My reasoning behind this is because tornado reports have increased substantially over the last several decades due to over a doubling of Great Plains population since 1950, and therefore increased public awareness; more photographic evidence and video footage; the introduction of NEXRAD Doppler radar in the 1990s; and an overall increased effort to document tornadoes for both meteorological analysis and climate studies. Tornadoes of EF-1 intensity, and especially EF-2 and higher, are the most likely to be documented with fairly consistent accuracy since the mid-1950s and early-1960s.
Both the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and 4th U.S. National Climate Assessment (NCA) agree:⁶ ⁷
“Since 1920, the number of tornadoes reported annually in the United States has increased by an order of magnitude, but this increase reflects greater effectiveness in collecting tornado reports (Doswell and Burgess, 1988; Grazulis, 1993; Grazulis et al., 1998). On the other hand, severe tornadoes are not easily overlooked. Restricting the analysis to very strong and violent tornadoes results in a much different assessment (Figure 2.38) showing little long-term change, though some years like 1974 show a very large number of tornadoes.“ － IPCC TAR Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, WG1, Chapter 2, Observed Climate Variability and Change, Section 2.7
“A particular challenge in quantifying the existence and intensity of these events arises from the data source: rather than measurements, the occurrence of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms is determined by visual sightings by eyewitnesses (such as “storm spotters” and law enforcement officials) or post-storm damage assessments. The reporting has been susceptible to changes in population density, modifications to reporting procedures and training, the introduction of video and social media, and so on. These have led to systematic, non-meteorological biases in the long-term data record.” － NCA4, Chapter 9, Section 9.3
Closing Remarks
As an aspiring meteorologist myself, I am by no means a denier of man-made climate change. Indeed, I am in solid agreement with almost every scientist that mankind is responsible for at least some of the warming observed globally since around 1950.
While I do not think climate change is a serious threat to humanity, I do think it’s a serious issue that needs to be discussed within the scientific community. One of the things I love about science is being able to debate things, do research, and explore the unknown.
Extreme weather has always been around as long as documentation, official or unofficial, goes back. Ridiculous and/or sometimes extreme claims made by a select few scientists, politicians, and even on occasion, the media is usually based on climate model projections, not actual real-world observations. Those who choose blame every single weather event, or so it seems, on man-made climate change are not only a roadblock for the progress of our scientific understanding of the issue, they’re just practicing a scientifically meaningless self-fulfilling prophecy.
REFERENCES
[1] Cappucci, Matthew. “How the Deadly, Destructive Tornadoes Ravaged Nashville on Tuesday.” The Washington Post. WP Company, March 3, 2020. https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/03/03/how-deadly-destructive-tornadoes-ravaged-nashville-tuesday/.
[2] “March 2-3, 2020 Tornadoes and Severe Weather.” National Weather Service. NOAAs National Weather Service, March 12, 2020. https://www.weather.gov/ohx/20200303.
[3] Edwards, Roger. “The Online Tornado FAQ (by Roger Edwards, SPC).” The Online Tornado FAQ (by Roger Edwards, SPC). NOAA SPC, April 19, 2018. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/faq/tornado/index.html.
[4] Gensini, Vittorio A., and Harold E. Brooks. “Spatial Trends in United States Tornado Frequency.” npj Climate and Atmospheric Science 1, no. 1 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-018-0048-2.
[5] Long, John A., and Paul C. Stoy. “Peak Tornado Activity Is Occurring Earlier in the Heart of ‘Tornado Alley.’” Geophysical Research Letters 41, no. 17 (October 2014): 6259–64. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014gl061385.
[6] Folland, C.K., T.R. Karl, J.R. Christy, R.A. Clarke, G.V. Gruza, J. Jouzel, M.E. Mann, J. Oerlemans, M.J. Salinger and S.-W. Wang,
2001: Observed Climate Variability and Change. In: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to
the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Houghton, J.T., Y. Ding, D.J. Griggs, M. Noguer,
P.J. van der Linden, X. Dai, K. Maskell, and C.A. Johnson (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and
New York, NY, USA, 881pp. (PDF)
[7] Kossin, J.P., T. Hall, T. Knutson, K.E. Kunkel, R.J. Trapp, D.E. Waliser, and M.F. Wehner, 2017: Extreme storms. In: Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I [Wuebbles, D.J., D.W. Fahey, K.A. Hibbard, D.J. Dokken, B.C. Stewart, and T.K. Maycock (eds.)]. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, USA, pp. 257-276, doi:10.7930/J07S7KXX.
0 0 votes Article Rating
Share this: Print
Email
Facebook
Twitter
GETTR
Telegram
Like this: Like Loading...


wattsupwiththat--2020-03-18--John Kerry and His Climate Clown-Science

From The Institute for Energy Research Joe Biden ’ s “ confidants ” are throwing out names for cabinet positions .
Whether this is sophisticated political jockeying or the equivalent of a frat-house bull session is unknown , but the first name on the list at Axios makes us dearly hope it is the latter .
The first bullet point on their list reads : “ John Kerry would love to take a new Cabinet position devoted to climate change… ” This possibility is emblematic of sorry state of climate policy .
John Kerry has proven he is totally ignorant @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Nevertheless , while he ridicules those who know more , he is aided and abetted by the media .
In a widely covered speech in Jakarta in 2014 , Kerry asserted that climate change is “ the world ’ s most fearsome weapon of mass destruction.
” He also went to some lengths to lay out the basics of climate science .
After invoking the requisite “ 97 percent of scientists ” cliché , Kerry goes off script ( or we can hope it was off script ) to explain how simple it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ But this is not tough .
This is simple .
Kids at the earliest age can understand this.
” It is worth watching the video just to get a sense of the condescension and derision toward skeptics .
Here is his description of carbon dioxide as a greenhouse gas : “ Try and picture a very thin layer of gases – a quarter-inch , half an inch , somewhere in that vicinity – that ’ s how thick it is .
It ’ s in our atmosphere .
It ’ s way up @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” Don ’ t bother going outside to look for it .
Kerry ’ s is an absolutely cockamamie description of greenhouse gasses in general and CO2 in particular .
CO2 is not “ way up there at the edge.
” It is all through the atmosphere .
It is not a quarter or half an inch thick—it is part of the many-miles thick atmosphere .
It seems he may have been using talking points from the twenty-years-earlier debate on ozone .
Ozone is mostly “ way up there ” and if isolated @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a layer 3 mm thick .
If so , Kerry confused an abstract description of ozone ( O3 ) for the reality of CO2 .
More notable than his confusion is his confidence in his ignorance .
He asserted that those who did not have his level of understanding were flat-Earthers with less comprehension than small children .
After misinforming the audience about the thin layer , way up there , he immediately adds : “ And for millions of years – literally millions of years – we know that layer has acted @ @ @ @ @ @ @ – trapping the sun ’ s heat and warming the surface of the Earth to the ideal , life-sustaining temperature .
Average temperature of the Earth has been about 57 degrees Fahrenheit , which keeps life going.
” Kerry ’ s implication that the Earth ’ s climate has been coddled by a steady 57-degree “ Ideal , life-sustaining temperature ” for “ literally millions of years ” is also cockamamie .

From The Institute for Energy Research
By David Kreutzer
March 13, 2020
Joe Biden’s “confidants” are throwing out names for cabinet positions. Whether this is sophisticated political jockeying or the equivalent of a frat-house bull session is unknown, but the first name on the list at Axios makes us dearly hope it is the latter. The first bullet point on their list reads: “John Kerry would love to take a new Cabinet position devoted to climate change…”
This possibility is emblematic of sorry state of climate policy. John Kerry has proven he is totally ignorant of the basics of climate science. Nevertheless, while he ridicules those who know more, he is aided and abetted by the media.
In a widely covered speech in Jakarta in 2014, Kerry asserted that climate change is “the world’s most fearsome weapon of mass destruction.” He also went to some lengths to lay out the basics of climate science.
After invoking the requisite “97 percent of scientists” cliché, Kerry goes off script (or we can hope it was off script) to explain how simple it is to understand climate science: “But this is not tough. This is simple. Kids at the earliest age can understand this.” It is worth watching the video just to get a sense of the condescension and derision toward skeptics.
Here is his description of carbon dioxide as a greenhouse gas:
“Try and picture a very thin layer of gases – a quarter-inch, half an inch, somewhere in that vicinity – that’s how thick it is. It’s in our atmosphere. It’s way up there at the edge of the atmosphere.”
Don’t bother going outside to look for it. Kerry’s is an absolutely cockamamie description of greenhouse gasses in general and CO2 in particular. CO2 is not “way up there at the edge.” It is all through the atmosphere. It is not a quarter or half an inch thick—it is part of the many-miles thick atmosphere. It seems he may have been using talking points from the twenty-years-earlier debate on ozone. Ozone is mostly “way up there” and if isolated and compressed to right-down-here pressures would form a layer 3 mm thick. If so, Kerry confused an abstract description of ozone (O3) for the reality of CO2. More notable than his confusion is his confidence in his ignorance. He asserted that those who did not have his level of understanding were flat-Earthers with less comprehension than small children.
After misinforming the audience about the thin layer, way up there, he immediately adds:
“And for millions of years – literally millions of years – we know that layer has acted like a thermal blanket for the planet – trapping the sun’s heat and warming the surface of the Earth to the ideal, life-sustaining temperature. Average temperature of the Earth has been about 57 degrees Fahrenheit, which keeps life going.”
Kerry’s implication that the Earth’s climate has been coddled by a steady 57-degree “Ideal, life-sustaining temperature” for “literally millions of years” is also cockamamie.
Full article here.
0 0 votes Article Rating
Share this: Print
Email
Facebook
Twitter
GETTR
Telegram
Like this: Like Loading...


wattsupwiththat--2020-03-18--Emissions of several ozone-depleting chemicals are larger than expected

Recovering and safely destroying the sources of these chemicals could speed ozone recovery and reduce climate change In 2016 , scientists at MIT and elsewhere observed the first signs of healing in the Antarctic ozone layer .
This environmental milestone was the result of decades of concerted effort by nearly every country in the world , which collectively signed on to the Montreal Protocol .
These countries pledged to protect the ozone layer by phasing out production of ozone-depleting chlorofluorocarbons , which are also potent greenhouse gases .
While the ozone layer is on a recovery path , scientists have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ CFC-12 , raising the possibility of production of the banned chemicals that could be in violation of the landmark global treaty .
Emissions of CFC-11 even showed an uptick around 2013 , which has been traced mainly to a source in eastern China .
New data suggest that China has now tamped down on illegal production of the chemical , but emissions of CFC-11 and 12 emission are still larger than expected .
Now MIT researchers have found that much of the current emission of these gases likely stems from large CFC “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ building insulation foam , refrigerators and cooling systems , and foam insulation , that was manufactured before the global phaseout of CFCs and is still leaking the gases into the atmosphere .
Based on earlier analyses , scientists concluded that CFC banks would be too small to contribute very much to ozone depletion , and so policymakers allowed the banks to remain .
It turns out there are oversized banks of both CFC-11 and CFC-12 .
The banks slowly leak these chemicals at concentrations that , if left unchecked , would delay the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ years and add the equivalent of 9 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere — an amount that is similar to the current European Union pledge under the UN Paris Agreement to reduce climate change .
“ Wherever these CFC banks reside , we should consider recovering and destroying them as responsibly as we can , ” says Susan Solomon , the Lee and Geraldine Martin Professor of Environmental Studies at MIT , who is a co-author of the study .
“ Some banks are easier to destroy than others .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ building down , you can take careful measures to recover the insulation foam and bury it in a landfill , helping the ozone layer recover faster and perhaps taking off a chunk of global warming as a gift to the planet.
” The team also identified an unexpected and sizable source of another ozone-depleting chemical , CFC-113 .
This chemical was traditionally used as a cleaning solvent , and its production was banned , except for in one particular use , as a feedstock for the manufacturing of other chemical substances .
It @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the CFC-113 without allowing much leakage , and so the chemical ’ s use as a feedstock was allowed to continue .
However , the researchers found that CFC-113 is being emitted into the atmosphere , at a rate of 7 billion grams per year — nearly as large as the spike in CFC-11 , which amounted to about 10 billion grams per year .
“ A few years ago , the world got very upset over 10 gigagrams of CFC-11 that wasn ’ t supposed to be there , and now we @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that wasn ’ t supposed to be there , ” says lead author of the study and MIT graduate student Megan Lickley .
“ The two gases are similar in terms of their ozone depletion and global warming potential .
So this is a significant issue.
” The study appears in Nature Communications .
Co-authors with Lickley and Solomon are Sarah Fletcher , and Kane Stone of MIT , along with Guus Velders of Utrecht University , John Daniel and Stephen Montzka of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration , Matthew Rigby of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Kuijpers of A/gent Ltd. Consultancy , in the Netherlands .
The new results are based on an analysis the team developed that combines two common methods for estimating the size of CFC banks around the world .
The first method is a top-down approach , which looks at CFCs produced around the world , based on country-by-country reporting , and then compares these numbers to actual concentrations of the gasses and how long they persist in the atmosphere .
After accounting for atmospheric destruction , the difference between a chemical ’ s production @ @ @ @ @ @ @ estimate of the size of CFC banks around the world .
Based on recent international assessments that use this top-down approach , there should be no CFC banks left in the world .
“ But those values are subject to large uncertainties : Small differences in production values or lifetimes or concentrations can lead to large differences in the bank size , ” Lickley notes .
The second method is a bottom-up approach , which uses industry-reported values of CFC production and sales in a variety of applications such as refrigeration or foams @ @ @ @ @ @ @ equipment type is depleting over time .
The team combined the best of both methods in a Bayesian probabilistic model — a hybrid approach that calculates the global size of CFC banks based on both atmospheric data , and country and industry-level reporting of CFC production and sales in various uses .
“ We also allow there to be some uncertainties , because there could be reporting errors from different countries , which wouldn ’ t be surprising at all , ” Solomon says .
“ So it ’ s a much better @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” The CFC banks , and the sheer quantity of old equipment storing these chemicals around the world , seem to be larger than any previous estimates .
The team found the amount of CFC 11 and 12 stored up in banks is about 2.1 million metric tons — an amount that would delay ozone recovery by six years if released to the atmosphere .
This CFC bank is also equivalent to about 9 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide in terms of its effect on climate change .
Interestingly , the amount @ @ @ @ @ @ @ being emitted from these banks is enough to account for the recently observed emissions in both gases .
“ It really looks like , other than the extra amount being produced in China that seems to have stopped now , the rest of what we ’ re seeing is no mystery : It ’ s just what ’ s coming out of the banks .
That ’ s good news , ” Solomon says .
“ It means there doesn ’ t seem to be any further cheating going on .
If there @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
And we wanted to know , if you were to recover and destroy these building foams , and replace old cooling systems and such , in a more responsible way , what more could that do for climate change ?
” To answer that , the team explored several theoretical policy scenarios and their potential effect on the emissions produced by CFC banks .
An “ opportunity lost ” scenario considers what would have happened if all banks were destroyed back in 2000 — the year that many developed countries agreed to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ scenario had played out , the measure would have saved the equivalent of 25 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide between 2000 and 2020 , and there would be no CFC emissions lingering now from these banks .
A second scenario predicts CFC emissions in the atmosphere if all banks are recovered and destroyed in 2020 .
This scenario would save the equivalent of 9 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide emitted to the atmosphere .
If these banks were destroyed today , it would also help the ozone layer recover six years @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in 2000 , which is really sad , ” Solomon says .
“ So let ’ s not miss it again.
” This research was supported , in part , by VoLo foundation .
Solomon is also supported by a Lee and Geraldine Martin Professorship .

Recovering and safely destroying the sources of these chemicals could speed ozone recovery and reduce climate change
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
In 2016, scientists at MIT and elsewhere observed the first signs of healing in the Antarctic ozone layer. This environmental milestone was the result of decades of concerted effort by nearly every country in the world, which collectively signed on to the Montreal Protocol. These countries pledged to protect the ozone layer by phasing out production of ozone-depleting chlorofluorocarbons, which are also potent greenhouse gases.
While the ozone layer is on a recovery path, scientists have found unexpectedly high emissions of CFC-11 and CFC-12, raising the possibility of production of the banned chemicals that could be in violation of the landmark global treaty. Emissions of CFC-11 even showed an uptick around 2013, which has been traced mainly to a source in eastern China. New data suggest that China has now tamped down on illegal production of the chemical, but emissions of CFC-11 and 12 emission are still larger than expected.
Now MIT researchers have found that much of the current emission of these gases likely stems from large CFC “banks” — old equipment such as building insulation foam, refrigerators and cooling systems, and foam insulation, that was manufactured before the global phaseout of CFCs and is still leaking the gases into the atmosphere. Based on earlier analyses, scientists concluded that CFC banks would be too small to contribute very much to ozone depletion, and so policymakers allowed the banks to remain.
It turns out there are oversized banks of both CFC-11 and CFC-12. The banks slowly leak these chemicals at concentrations that, if left unchecked, would delay the recovery of the ozone hole by six years and add the equivalent of 9 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere — an amount that is similar to the current European Union pledge under the UN Paris Agreement to reduce climate change.
“Wherever these CFC banks reside, we should consider recovering and destroying them as responsibly as we can,” says Susan Solomon, the Lee and Geraldine Martin Professor of Environmental Studies at MIT, who is a co-author of the study. “Some banks are easier to destroy than others. For instance, before you tear a building down, you can take careful measures to recover the insulation foam and bury it in a landfill, helping the ozone layer recover faster and perhaps taking off a chunk of global warming as a gift to the planet.”
The team also identified an unexpected and sizable source of another ozone-depleting chemical, CFC-113. This chemical was traditionally used as a cleaning solvent, and its production was banned, except for in one particular use, as a feedstock for the manufacturing of other chemical substances. It was thought that chemical plants would use the CFC-113 without allowing much leakage, and so the chemical’s use as a feedstock was allowed to continue.
However, the researchers found that CFC-113 is being emitted into the atmosphere, at a rate of 7 billion grams per year — nearly as large as the spike in CFC-11, which amounted to about 10 billion grams per year.
“A few years ago, the world got very upset over 10 gigagrams of CFC-11 that wasn’t supposed to be there, and now we’re seeing 7 gigagrams of CFC-113 that wasn’t supposed to be there,” says lead author of the study and MIT graduate student Megan Lickley. “The two gases are similar in terms of their ozone depletion and global warming potential. So this is a significant issue.”
The study appears in Nature Communications. Co-authors with Lickley and Solomon are Sarah Fletcher, and Kane Stone of MIT, along with Guus Velders of Utrecht University, John Daniel and Stephen Montzka of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Matthew Rigby of the University of Bristol, and Lambert Kuijpers of A/gent Ltd. Consultancy, in the Netherlands.
From top to bottom
The new results are based on an analysis the team developed that combines two common methods for estimating the size of CFC banks around the world.
The first method is a top-down approach, which looks at CFCs produced around the world, based on country-by-country reporting, and then compares these numbers to actual concentrations of the gasses and how long they persist in the atmosphere. After accounting for atmospheric destruction, the difference between a chemical’s production and its atmospheric concentrations gives scientists an estimate of the size of CFC banks around the world.
Based on recent international assessments that use this top-down approach, there should be no CFC banks left in the world.
“But those values are subject to large uncertainties: Small differences in production values or lifetimes or concentrations can lead to large differences in the bank size,” Lickley notes.
The second method is a bottom-up approach, which uses industry-reported values of CFC production and sales in a variety of applications such as refrigeration or foams, and estimates of how quickly each equipment type is depleting over time.
The team combined the best of both methods in a Bayesian probabilistic model — a hybrid approach that calculates the global size of CFC banks based on both atmospheric data, and country and industry-level reporting of CFC production and sales in various uses.
“We also allow there to be some uncertainties, because there could be reporting errors from different countries, which wouldn’t be surprising at all,” Solomon says. “So it’s a much better quantification of the size of the bank.”
Chasing a lost opportunity
The CFC banks, and the sheer quantity of old equipment storing these chemicals around the world, seem to be larger than any previous estimates. The team found the amount of CFC 11 and 12 stored up in banks is about 2.1 million metric tons — an amount that would delay ozone recovery by six years if released to the atmosphere. This CFC bank is also equivalent to about 9 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide in terms of its effect on climate change.
Interestingly, the amount of both CFC-11 and CFC-12 that is being emitted from these banks is enough to account for the recently observed emissions in both gases.
“It really looks like, other than the extra amount being produced in China that seems to have stopped now, the rest of what we’re seeing is no mystery: It’s just what’s coming out of the banks. That’s good news,” Solomon says. “It means there doesn’t seem to be any further cheating going on. If there is, it’s very small. And we wanted to know, if you were to recover and destroy these building foams, and replace old cooling systems and such, in a more responsible way, what more could that do for climate change?”
To answer that, the team explored several theoretical policy scenarios and their potential effect on the emissions produced by CFC banks.
An “opportunity lost” scenario considers what would have happened if all banks were destroyed back in 2000 — the year that many developed countries agreed to phase out CFC production. If this scenario had played out, the measure would have saved the equivalent of 25 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide between 2000 and 2020, and there would be no CFC emissions lingering now from these banks.
A second scenario predicts CFC emissions in the atmosphere if all banks are recovered and destroyed in 2020. This scenario would save the equivalent of 9 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide emitted to the atmosphere. If these banks were destroyed today, it would also help the ozone layer recover six years faster.
“We lost an opportunity in 2000, which is really sad,” Solomon says. “So let’s not miss it again.”
###
This research was supported, in part, by VoLo foundation. Solomon is also supported by a Lee and Geraldine Martin Professorship.
Written by Jennifer Chu, MIT News Office
From EurekAlert!
0 0 votes Article Rating
Share this: Print
Email
Facebook
Twitter
GETTR
Telegram
Like this: Like Loading...