wattsupwiththat--2020-12-17--CLAIM: Expect fewer, but more destructive landfalling tropical cyclones

A study based on new high-resolution supercomputer simulations , published in this week ’ s issue of the journal , reveals that global warming will intensify landfalling tropical cyclones of category 3 or higher in the Indian and Pacific Oceans , while suppressing the formation of weaker events .
Tropical cyclones ( including typhoons and hurricanes ) , are the most fatal and costliest weather disasters on our planet .
Millions of people are affected every year by the destructive power of these extreme weather systems , but how tropical cyclone properties – in particular in coastal areas – will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ long remained a mystery .
To address this question , scientists for over two decades have used the world ’ s largest supercomputers to run climate model simulations that show important aspects of these destructive storms .
However , until recently the computing power has been insufficient to capture both atmospheric details and resolve the full interaction with the ocean on a global scale .
A team of researchers from South Korea ’ s IBS Center for Climate Physics ( ICCP ) at Pusan National University recently completed one of the most computing-intensive @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The global climate model records small-scale atmospheric and oceanic processes with a horizontal scale of 25 km and 10 km , respectively .
This unprecedented resolution is adequate to simulate tropical cyclones and oceanic cold wakes ( Fig .
1 ) , which are generated when a strong slowly moving tropical cyclone brings cold deep water up to the ocean surface , further influencing the track and intensity of tropical cyclones .
To determine the sensitivity of tropical cyclones to global warming , the research team ran computer model simulations for present-day @ @ @ @ @ @ @ quadrupled CO2 concentrations .
The simulations ran for 13 months on one of South Korea ’ s fastest academic supercomputers named Aleph ( Fig .
1 ) , generating an equivalent of about two-thousand 1TB hard disks of data .
This climate computer model is also unique in other aspects .
For example , it exhibits much weaker ocean temperature errors than the previous generation of climate models .
“ This improvement was important for a realistic simulation of typhoons in the Indian and Pacific Ocean ” says Dr. Jung-Eun Chu , lead @ @ @ @ @ @ @ leader at the ICCP .
Over the warm tropical oceans , air rises , flowing polewards at high altitude and sinking in the subtropical regions .
The surface-return-flow of this so-called Hadley circulation feeds the global trade wind system .
According to the new study , the summer-time Hadley circulation is expected to weaken in future due to the accelerated atmospheric warming at an elevation of 5-15 km , relative to the ground .
“ A future reduction of rising motion in the tropical atmosphere will make it more difficult for tropical cyclones @ @ @ @ @ @ @ future suppression in tropical cyclone seeds and overall numbers in the Pacific and Indian Ocean ( Fig .
2 ) ” , explains Dr. Sun-Seon Lee from the ICCP , who conducted the simulations on Aleph .
“ Interestingly the simulated pattern of future tropical cyclone changes is quite similar to the recent observed trends , which supports the notion that global warming is already altering global extreme weather ” adds Dr. Lee .
However , the story how global warming will alter tropical cyclones is more complex .
Although for a CO2 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is expected to decrease in future , developing events will have much higher chance to intensify beyond category 3 due to the higher humidity and energy levels in the atmosphere .
“ This result confirms previous studies which used less-detailed global climate models .
By representing coastal processes more accurately than ever before in a global model , we now have a much higher confidence in these robust model projections , in particular for landfalling tropical cyclones.
” , says Prof. Axel Timmermann , co-author of the study and Director of the ICCP @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ( CO2 quadrupling ) , the research team discovered an important , previously unknown , saturation effect : beyond ~5 ?
global warming , the suppression of tropical cyclone seeds is so strong that also the number of strong landfalling events ( category 3 or higher ) will begin to level off .
“ Nevertheless , the rainfall associated with each event will continue to increase , amplifying the risk for extreme coastal flooding .
Our study provides crucial policy-relevant information for countries that are affected by the impact of tropical cyclones ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ team will continue to analyze the vast amount of data generated by these computer simulations to better understand the interaction between ocean heat content and tropical cyclones under present day and future conditions .

From the INSTITUTE FOR BASIC SCIENCE and model madness department.
A study based on new high-resolution supercomputer simulations, published in this week’s issue of the journal Science Advances, reveals that global warming will intensify landfalling tropical cyclones of category 3 or higher in the Indian and Pacific Oceans, while suppressing the formation of weaker events.
Tropical cyclones (including typhoons and hurricanes), are the most fatal and costliest weather disasters on our planet. Millions of people are affected every year by the destructive power of these extreme weather systems, but how tropical cyclone properties – in particular in coastal areas – will change in response to global warming has long remained a mystery. To address this question, scientists for over two decades have used the world’s largest supercomputers to run climate model simulations that show important aspects of these destructive storms. However, until recently the computing power has been insufficient to capture both atmospheric details and resolve the full interaction with the ocean on a global scale.
Rainbands (white) of a tropical cyclone and related ocean cold wake (colored shading) simulated by the ultra-high resolution climate model simulation for present-day conditions (left). The simulation was conducted with the IBS supercomputer Aleph (right), located in Daejeon, South Korea. CREDIT IBS
A team of researchers from South Korea’s IBS Center for Climate Physics (ICCP) at Pusan National University recently completed one of the most computing-intensive and detailed global warming simulations so far. The global climate model records small-scale atmospheric and oceanic processes with a horizontal scale of 25 km and 10 km, respectively. This unprecedented resolution is adequate to simulate tropical cyclones and oceanic cold wakes (Fig. 1), which are generated when a strong slowly moving tropical cyclone brings cold deep water up to the ocean surface, further influencing the track and intensity of tropical cyclones.
To determine the sensitivity of tropical cyclones to global warming, the research team ran computer model simulations for present-day atmospheric greenhouse gas composition and doubled and quadrupled CO2 concentrations. The simulations ran for 13 months on one of South Korea’s fastest academic supercomputers named Aleph (Fig. 1), generating an equivalent of about two-thousand 1TB hard disks of data.
This climate computer model is also unique in other aspects. For example, it exhibits much weaker ocean temperature errors than the previous generation of climate models. “This improvement was important for a realistic simulation of typhoons in the Indian and Pacific Ocean” says Dr. Jung-Eun Chu, lead author of the study and a project leader at the ICCP.
Over the warm tropical oceans, air rises, flowing polewards at high altitude and sinking in the subtropical regions. The surface-return-flow of this so-called Hadley circulation feeds the global trade wind system. According to the new study, the summer-time Hadley circulation is expected to weaken in future due to the accelerated atmospheric warming at an elevation of 5-15 km, relative to the ground. “A future reduction of rising motion in the tropical atmosphere will make it more difficult for tropical cyclones to develop, which explains the projected future suppression in tropical cyclone seeds and overall numbers in the Pacific and Indian Ocean (Fig. 2)”, explains Dr. Sun-Seon Lee from the ICCP, who conducted the simulations on Aleph. “Interestingly the simulated pattern of future tropical cyclone changes is quite similar to the recent observed trends, which supports the notion that global warming is already altering global extreme weather” adds Dr. Lee.
However, the story how global warming will alter tropical cyclones is more complex. Although for a CO2 doubling the total number of tropical cyclones is expected to decrease in future, developing events will have much higher chance to intensify beyond category 3 due to the higher humidity and energy levels in the atmosphere. “This result confirms previous studies which used less-detailed global climate models. By representing coastal processes more accurately than ever before in a global model, we now have a much higher confidence in these robust model projections, in particular for landfalling tropical cyclones.”, says Prof. Axel Timmermann, co-author of the study and Director of the ICCP.
For even higher greenhouse gas concentrations (CO2 quadrupling), the research team discovered an important, previously unknown, saturation effect: beyond ~5? global warming, the suppression of tropical cyclone seeds is so strong that also the number of strong landfalling events (category 3 or higher) will begin to level off. “Nevertheless, the rainfall associated with each event will continue to increase, amplifying the risk for extreme coastal flooding. Our study provides crucial policy-relevant information for countries that are affected by the impact of tropical cyclones” says Dr. Chu.
The ICCP research team will continue to analyze the vast amount of data generated by these computer simulations to better understand the interaction between ocean heat content and tropical cyclones under present day and future conditions.
###
From EurekAlert!
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wattsupwiththat--2020-12-17--Modern Iceland’s Climate Is Colder With More Ice Than Any Other Time In The Last 8000 Years Except T

Modern Iceland’s Climate Is Colder With More Ice Than Any Other Time In The Last 8000 Years Except The 1800s

A wealth of new research in glacier and sea ice extent show modern Iceland is 2-4°C colder than all of the last 8000 years except for a slightly colder late 19th century .
Even the 1700s were warmer with less ice than today in and around Iceland .
A new study ( Geirsdóttir et al.
, 2020 ) now affirms peak Holocene warmth at least “ ∼3–4 °C above modern in Iceland ” prevailed throughout much of the last 8000 years .
Data from tree growth , glacier-induced soil erosion , algae productivity , sea ice biomarker proxies ( IP25 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ these conclusions .
Harning et al.
, 2020 report an overall 7°C Holocene cooling trend In Iceland ’ s surrounding sea surface temperatures ( SST ) .
“ In terms of foraminifera-reconstructed SST there is an overall trend of cooling throughout the last 8 ka from ~10 °C to ~3 °C.
” It is only in the last few centuries of the modern era that temperatures sharply plummeted to their lowest values of the last 10,000 years ( Geirsdóttir et al.
, 2020 ) .
“ The coolest climate of the last 10 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” Consequent to the peak cooling , glaciers and sea ice reached their maximum extents of the Holocene just 150 years ago .
While Iceland ’ s glaciers and North Shelf sea ice extent did partially recover in the first half of the 20th century , the ice extents are still beyond what they were in the 1700s and earlier .
There is nothing to indicate modern warmth or ice recession in and around Iceland is unprecedented or even unusual .

Reposted from NoTricksZone
A wealth of new research in glacier and sea ice extent show modern Iceland is 2-4°C colder than all of the last 8000 years except for a slightly colder late 19th century. Even the 1700s were warmer with less ice than today in and around Iceland.
A new study (Geirsdóttir et al., 2020) now affirms peak Holocene warmth at least “∼3–4 °C above modern in Iceland” prevailed throughout much of the last 8000 years. Data from tree growth, glacier-induced soil erosion, algae productivity, sea ice biomarker proxies (IP25), and other climate indices affirm these conclusions.
Harning et al., 2020 report an overall 7°C Holocene cooling trend In Iceland’s surrounding sea surface temperatures (SST).
“In terms of foraminifera-reconstructed SST there is an overall trend of cooling throughout the last 8 ka from ~10 °C to ~3 °C.”
It is only in the last few centuries of the modern era that temperatures sharply plummeted to their lowest values of the last 10,000 years (Geirsdóttir et al., 2020).
“The coolest climate of the last 10 ka occurred in the late 1800s CE.”
Consequent to the peak cooling, glaciers and sea ice reached their maximum extents of the Holocene just 150 years ago.
While Iceland’s glaciers and North Shelf sea ice extent did partially recover in the first half of the 20th century, the ice extents are still beyond what they were in the 1700s and earlier.
There is nothing to indicate modern warmth or ice recession in and around Iceland is unprecedented or even unusual.
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wattsupwiththat--2020-12-18--From the Bleeding Obvious Files: U.S. Army Still Relies on Carbon-Based Fuels

U.S. Army still relies on carbon-based fuels , report says The U.S. Army still relies on carbon-based fuels , which will likely remain the primary fuel , according to a report released by Dr. David J. Gorsich and Dr. André Boehman .
Army ’ s chief scientist for ground vehicle systems Dr. David J. Gorsich and professor of mechanical engineering at the University of Michigan , director of the university ’ s Walter E. Lay Automotive Laboratory André Boehman noted in its report that the Army ’ s requirement calls for the highest energy-density fuel combined with the lowest mass @ @ @ @ @ @ @ over alternative energy .
Army scientists ’ report examined why isn ’ t the U.S. Army using alternative forms of energy and powertrains more extensively to reduce fuel usage for its vehicles ?
Tesla is building large semitrucks , and UPS and FedEx are starting to order these vehicles for delivery operations .
It seems the entire automotive industry is migrating toward electrification as battery costs have dropped dramatically and recharge times and range have improved accordingly .
With all of the major automobile manufacturers moving toward hybrids and electric vehicles , it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ wonder why the Army is so far behind .
The reality is that the Army is not behind .
It has experts in all of these fields who have been conducting research on alternative energy sources and hybrids for military vehicles for more than 20 years .
However , the bottom line is that there is a good reason the Army hasn ’ t unilaterally decided to switch to alternative fuels .
The Army has a unique set of operational requirements , and no current fuel source meeting those requirements contains as much @ @ @ @ @ @ @ or gasoline .
This analysis focuses on energy density ( the amount of energy stored in a system per unit of volume ) , conversion of that energy , as well as mass and volume requirements , to determine how they compare to current sources .

Guest “No Schist Sherlock” by David Middleton
U.S. Army still relies on carbon-based fuels, report says
The U.S. Army still relies on carbon-based fuels, which will likely remain the primary fuel, according to a report released by Dr. David J. Gorsich and Dr. André Boehman.
Army’s chief scientist for ground vehicle systems Dr. David J. Gorsich and professor of mechanical engineering at the University of Michigan, director of the university’s Walter E. Lay Automotive Laboratory André Boehman noted in its report that the Army’s requirement calls for the highest energy-density fuel combined with the lowest mass and volume—and gasoline and diesel still win over alternative energy.
Army scientists’ report examined why isn’t the U.S. Army using alternative forms of energy and powertrains more extensively to reduce fuel usage for its vehicles?
Tesla is building large semitrucks, and UPS and FedEx are starting to order these vehicles for delivery operations. It seems the entire automotive industry is migrating toward electrification as battery costs have dropped dramatically and recharge times and range have improved accordingly. With all of the major automobile manufacturers moving toward hybrids and electric vehicles, it’s easy to get confused and wonder why the Army is so far behind.
The reality is that the Army is not behind. It has experts in all of these fields who have been conducting research on alternative energy sources and hybrids for military vehicles for more than 20 years.
[…]
However, the bottom line is that there is a good reason the Army hasn’t unilaterally decided to switch to alternative fuels. The Army has a unique set of operational requirements, and no current fuel source meeting those requirements contains as much energy, by weight, as diesel or gasoline.
[…]
This analysis focuses on energy density (the amount of energy stored in a system per unit of volume), conversion of that energy, as well as mass and volume requirements, to determine how they compare to current sources.
[…]


wattsupwiththat--2020-12-17--Google Deepmind AI Project to Improve Renewable Energy Reliability Quietly Disappeared

A Google project to use artificial intelligence to improve the predictability of wind energy appears to have failed .
Engineers who worked on the project have reportedly removed mention of their work from their linked in profiles .
Climate change falls down the agenda at A.I .
lab DeepMind after energy heads leave • The , which has attracted its fair share of attention over the years , has vanished and none of the company ’ s staff mention it on their LinkedIn profiles .
• At one point , DeepMind wanted to use its AI technology to optimize National @ @ @ @ @ @ @ infrastructure that provides electricity to homes and businesses around Britain .
• The organizations spent a considerable amount of time working together , but there were many hurdles to overcome if anything was ever going to be implemented .
LONDON — Artificial intelligence ( AI ) lab DeepMind has shifted its focus from climate change to other areas of science and is pursuing its original mission of creating artificial general intelligence ( AGI ) , which is widely seen as the holy grail of the nascent technology , according to several people familiar @ @ @ @ @ @ @ DeepMind ’ s early and perhaps most successful projects involved slashing Google ’ s enormous electricity bill , instantly reducing the company ’ s carbon footprint .
The search giant , technically a sister company to DeepMind as they ’ re both run by Alphabet , announced in July 2016 that it had been able to reduce the energy consumption of its data center cooling units — used to stop Google ’ s servers from overheating — by as much as 40 % with the help of a DeepMind AI system .
While @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , it has yet to publicly confirm where and how its energy-saving AI has been applied beyond Google ’ s data centers and wind farms .
At one point , DeepMind wanted to use its AI technology to optimize National Grid , which owns and operates the infrastructure that provides electricity to homes and businesses around Britain .
“ We ’ re early stages talking to National Grid and other big providers about how we could look at the sorts of problems they have , ” DeepMind Chief Executive Demis Hassabis said in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ March 2017 .
“ It would be amazing if you could save 10 % of the country ’ s energy usage without any new infrastructure , just from optimisation .
That ’ s pretty exciting.
” Last March , it emerged that talks had broken down The organizations spent a considerable amount of time working together , sometimes at a National Grid facility near Reading , in the English county of Berkshire , but there were many hurdles to overcome if anything was ever going to be implemented .
Gary Marcus , CEO @ @ @ @ @ @ @ co-author of “ Rebooting AI , ” which critically analyzes the industry and suggests how to advance it further , told CNBC that the technology may not have worked well enough for National Grid to justify the cost .
“ , deep reinforcement learning , works best in well-controlled environments , such as board games , and may struggle with the complexity and unpredictability of the real world , ” Marcus told CNBC .
Sheikh added : “ The technology might not have worked because it ’ s not really that mature .
@

Guest essay by Eric Worrall
A Google project to use artificial intelligence to improve the predictability of wind energy appears to have failed. Engineers who worked on the project have reportedly removed mention of their work from their linked in profiles.
Climate change falls down the agenda at A.I. lab DeepMind after energy heads leave
PUBLISHED THU, DEC 17 2020 3:55 AM EST
Sam Shead@SAM_L_SHEAD
KEY POINTS
The DeepMind Energy unit , which has attracted its fair share of attention over the years, has vanished and none of the company’s staff mention it on their LinkedIn profiles.
, which has attracted its fair share of attention over the years, At one point, DeepMind wanted to use its AI technology to optimize National Grid, which owns and operates the infrastructure that provides electricity to homes and businesses around Britain.
The organizations spent a considerable amount of time working together, but there were many hurdles to overcome if anything was ever going to be implemented.
LONDON — Artificial intelligence (AI) lab DeepMind has shifted its focus from climate change to other areas of science and is pursuing its original mission of creating artificial general intelligence (AGI), which is widely seen as the holy grail of the nascent technology, according to several people familiar with the matter.
…
One of the DeepMind’s early and perhaps most successful projects involved slashing Google’s enormous electricity bill, instantly reducing the company’s carbon footprint. The search giant, technically a sister company to DeepMind as they’re both run by Alphabet, announced in July 2016 that it had been able to reduce the energy consumption of its data center cooling units — used to stop Google’s servers from overheating — by as much as 40% with the help of a DeepMind AI system.
…
While the company’s achievements are significant, it has yet to publicly confirm where and how its energy-saving AI has been applied beyond Google’s data centers and wind farms.
National Grid nightmare?
At one point, DeepMind wanted to use its AI technology to optimize National Grid, which owns and operates the infrastructure that provides electricity to homes and businesses around Britain.
“We’re early stages talking to National Grid and other big providers about how we could look at the sorts of problems they have,” DeepMind Chief Executive Demis Hassabis said in an interview with The Financial Times in March 2017. “It would be amazing if you could save 10% of the country’s energy usage without any new infrastructure, just from optimisation. That’s pretty exciting.”
Last March, it emerged that talks had broken down between DeepMind and National Grid. The organizations spent a considerable amount of time working together, sometimes at a National Grid facility near Reading, in the English county of Berkshire, but there were many hurdles to overcome if anything was ever going to be implemented.
…
Gary Marcus, CEO of robotics company Robust AI, and co-author of “Rebooting AI,” which critically analyzes the industry and suggests how to advance it further, told CNBC that the technology may not have worked well enough for National Grid to justify the cost.
“Their primary technique, deep reinforcement learning, works best in well-controlled environments, such as board games, and may struggle with the complexity and unpredictability of the real world,” Marcus told CNBC.
Sheikh added: “The technology might not have worked because it’s not really that mature.”
…


wattsupwiththat--2020-12-17--Claim: We’re Closer to 1.5C Global Warming than You Think

How close can scientists adjust us towards the 1.5C global warming bogeyman temperature without people noticing its just not that big a deal ?
Earth may be even closer to 1.5°C of global warming than we thought Global carbon emissions may have warmed Earth by 18 per cent more than previously thought , raising the prospect of the world having less time than expected to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement and avoid catastrophic climate change .
The global average temperature is thought to have climbed about 1.07°C since the industrial revolution , up from a previous estimate of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the world ’ s key temperature data sets in line , suggesting the true temperature rise is at the upper end of previous ranges .
“ Climate change hasn ’ t suddenly got worse .
It ’ s just our estimate of how much warming has taken place has improved , ” says Tim Osborn at the University of East Anglia , UK , who today published a paper with Met Office colleagues on the fifth update to the data , known as the Hadley Centre Climatic Research Unit Temperature ( HadCRUT5 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ closer to the fire .
According to the CSIRO , Australia is even closer to the dreaded 1.5C climate apocalypse than the world in general ; The Bureau of Meteorology and other science agencies employ a range of atmospheric , terrestrial and marine sensors to track climatic trends .
For example , the Australian Climate Observations Reference Network – Surface Air Temperature dataset is based on a network of over 100 stations , with data for more than half starting in 1910 .
The following information is taken from the 2020 State of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ years by CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology .
Australia ’ s climate has warmed since national records began in 1910 , with most warming occurring since 1950 .
Australia ’ s mean surface air temperature has increased by more than 1.4°C since 1910 .
Since 1950 , every decade has been warmer than it ’ s predecessor .
Australia ’ s warmest year on record was 2019 , and the seven years from 2013 to 2019 all rank in the nine warmest years .
This long‑term warming trend means that most years @ @ @ @ @ @ @ during the 20th century .
When relatively cooler years do occur , it is because natural drivers that typically cool Australia ’ s climate , such as La Niña , act to partially offset the background warming trend .
All this presents a difficult dilemma for climate scientists .
If the adjusted temperatures keep rising at their current pace , pretty soon they ’ ll blow through the magic death line milestones , and people will start asking what the big deal was .
But if the adjusted temperature series begin to flatten @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and even mainstream media personalities might start talking about a new pause .
Thankfully there are a few years to go until crunch time , so the most senior scientists of today will all be safely retired long before this aspect of the global warming scare hits the fan .

Guest essay by Eric Worrall
How close can scientists adjust us towards the 1.5C global warming bogeyman temperature without people noticing its just not that big a deal?
Earth may be even closer to 1.5°C of global warming than we thought ENVIRONMENT 15 December 2020
By Adam Vaughan Global carbon emissions may have warmed Earth by 18 per cent more than previously thought, raising the prospect of the world having less time than expected to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement and avoid catastrophic climate change. The global average temperature is thought to have climbed about 1.07°C since the industrial revolution, up from a previous estimate of 0.91°C. This update brings all three of the world’s key temperature data sets in line, suggesting the true temperature rise is at the upper end of previous ranges. … “Climate change hasn’t suddenly got worse. It’s just our estimate of how much warming has taken place has improved,” says Tim Osborn at the University of East Anglia, UK, who today published a paper with Met Office colleagues on the fifth update to the data, known as the Hadley Centre Climatic Research Unit Temperature (HadCRUT5). … Read more: https://www.newscientist.com/article/2262953-earth-may-be-even-closer-to-1-5c-of-global-warming-than-we-thought/
The CSIRO is playing even closer to the fire. According to the CSIRO, Australia is even closer to the dreaded 1.5C climate apocalypse than the world in general;
AUSTRALIAN CLIMATE TRENDS The Bureau of Meteorology and other science agencies employ a range of atmospheric, terrestrial and marine sensors to track climatic trends. For example, the Australian Climate Observations Reference Network – Surface Air Temperature dataset is based on a network of over 100 stations, with data for more than half starting in 1910. The following information is taken from the 2020 State of the Climate report, produced every two years by CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology. Australia’s climate has warmed since national records began in 1910, with most warming occurring since 1950. Australia’s mean surface air temperature has increased by more than 1.4°C since 1910. Since 1950, every decade has been warmer than it’s predecessor. Australia’s warmest year on record was 2019, and the seven years from 2013 to 2019 all rank in the nine warmest years. This long‑term warming trend means that most years are now warmer than almost any observed during the 20th century. When relatively cooler years do occur, it is because natural drivers that typically cool Australia’s climate, such as La Niña, act to partially offset the background warming trend. … Read more: https://www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au/en/climate-campus/australian-climate-change/australian-trends/
All this presents a difficult dilemma for climate scientists.
If the adjusted temperatures keep rising at their current pace, pretty soon they’ll blow through the magic death line milestones, and people will start asking what the big deal was.
But if the adjusted temperature series begin to flatten, skeptics will point and laugh, and even mainstream media personalities might start talking about a new pause.
Thankfully there are a few years to go until crunch time, so the most senior scientists of today will all be safely retired long before this aspect of the global warming scare hits the fan.
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wattsupwiththat--2020-12-18--Cause of Death:  Follow-up

Cause of Death:  Follow-up

The New York Times and The Guardian are both reporting a “ landmark ruling ” from Britain .
“ A 9-year-old girl who suffered a fatal asthma attack in 2013 became the first person in Britain to officially have air pollution listed as a cause of death , a British official said .
.
.
.
In the ruling on Wednesday , assistant coroner Philip Barlow in London said air pollution had significantly helped induce and exacerbate Ella ’ s asthma , adding that she had been exposed to levels of nitrogen dioxide and particulate matter in excess of World @ @ @ @ @ @ @ NY Times ] In a recent essay here , I discussed he problems with the reporting of and some of the details on how this is done in the United States .
For the details , read ( or re-read ) Cause of Death : A Primer .
The fact is that is not simple , not cut-and-dried , not always obvious and often contentious .
It is important to know that deaths in the UK are handled differently than in the United States .
In the United States , a doctor or @ @ @ @ @ @ @ listing the chain of events or chain of diseases that led to the death , including any contributing factors .
In England and Wales , there are a long list of cases in which a death must be subject to an inquest .
If you watch British TV shows , you may be familiar with the older version of an inquest , in which some coroner must rule a death a natural death , a suicide , a murder or “ death by misadventure ” .
The Guardian reports the case this way @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by ruling that air pollution was a cause of the death of a nine-year-old girl .
Philip Barlow , the inner south London coroner , said Ella Kissi-Debrah ’ s death in February 2013 was caused by acute respiratory failure , severe asthma and air pollution exposure .
He said she was exposed to nitrogen dioxide and particulate matter ( PM ) pollution in excess of World Health Organization guidelines , the principal source of which were traffic emissions .
The coroner said the failure to reduce pollution levels to legal limits to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to provide her mother with information about the potential for air pollution to exacerbate asthma .
“ Ella died of asthma contributed to by exposure to excessive air pollution , ” said the coroner on Wednesday .
This young girl ’ s death had been subject to an inquest in 2014 , which found she had died of .
But , can be contentious and sometimes , political .
In this case : Ella ’ s mother , Rosamund Kissi-Debrah , a former teacher , spent years fighting to have her daughter ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Her resilience was repaid on Wednesday when Barlow agreed with expert medical evidence provided by the family which said Ella ’ s particular form of acute asthma was exacerbated by air pollution .
Kissi-Debrah ’ s lawyers submitted that air pollution was a public health emergency and there was a pressing need for it to be recorded as a cause of death to ensure public health programmes to tackle toxic air were prioritised .
In evidence to the two-week inquest , Prof Stephen Holgate , an immunopharmacologist and consultant respiratory physician of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hospital , said a biological cause of Ella ’ s disease getting worse in the winter months was the seasonal worsening air pollution .
He said it was the cumulative effect of the toxic air Ella was breathing in living within 30 metres of the South Circular road that caused her final acute asthma attack .
For those not familiar with London , UK , the South Circular Road is not a multi-lane major highway , but rather : “ The South Circular is 20.5 miles ( 33.0 km ) long .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , one lane each way , aside from a small section of dual carriageway near the Woolwich Ferry .
It is a primary road for its entire length ” and “ The South Circular has received sustained criticism for congestion and pollution and is one of the least popular roads in Britain.
” [ source : Wiki ] In this case , we see the sad end of a young girl ’ s life .
A young girl that had suffered from severe asthma for years and had been repeatedly hospitalized for asthma @ @ @ @ @ @ @ public health doctors had reportedly failed to inform her mother that asthma sufferers should not live where there are exacerbating circumstances , such as high ozone levels , high dust levels , high levels of roadway auto and truck exhaust .
Her mother , a school teacher , should have known this , with or without public health officials specifically informing her , as all medical web sites on asthma feature this information .
In the end , it appears that a second coroners inquest has found , as should have been obvious @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is common medical knowledge , roadway air pollutants can be a contributing trigger for asthma attacks .
The landmark ruling though is almost entirely political — the shocking thing being that her family apparently remained ignorant of the basic facts that every parent of a child suffering from asthma would know .
As for , we see once more that it is not always a matter of simple medical facts and that the medical facts can be confused and conflated with other considerations and popular social movements .
The area in which I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ New York State , is listed as # 19 on the Allergy Capitals of America list – one of the worst paces for allergy and asthma sufferers to live .
Everyone with pollen allergies living here knows this and is rudely and painfully reminded of this twice a year ( we are lucky enough to have two allergy seasons ) .
If any parent of a child suffering from severe allergies living here had tried to claim ignorance of this simple fact , they would be laughed out of court .
As for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the concept of cause is a difficult issue , and , in my opinion , is most often mis-assigned based on vague association .
As many medical practitioners have begun to point out , Covid Deaths being reported in the media are more correctly characterized as “ Deaths Involving Covid ” and in many more cases , “ Deaths with some vague association to Covid ” .

Guest News Brief by Kip Hansen – 18 December 2020
The New York Times and The Guardian are both reporting a “landmark ruling” from Britain. “A 9-year-old girl who suffered a fatal asthma attack in 2013 became the first person in Britain to officially have air pollution listed as a cause of death, a British official said. . . . In the ruling on Wednesday, assistant coroner Philip Barlow in London said air pollution had significantly helped induce and exacerbate Ella’s asthma, adding that she had been exposed to levels of nitrogen dioxide and particulate matter in excess of World Health Organization guidelines.” [ source: NY Times ]
In a recent essay here, I discussed the problems with the reporting of Cause of Death and some of the details on how this is done in the United States. For the details, read (or re-read) Cause of Death: A Primer.
The fact is that Cause of Death is not simple, not cut-and-dried, not always obvious and often contentious. It is important to know that deaths in the UK are handled differently than in the United States.
In the United States, a doctor or coroner simply fills out a Death Certificate listing the chain of events or chain of diseases that led to the death, including any contributing factors. In England and Wales, there are a long list of cases in which a death must be subject to an inquest. If you watch British TV shows, you may be familiar with the older version of an inquest, in which some coroner must rule a death a natural death, a suicide, a murder or “death by misadventure”.
The Guardian reports the case this way:
A coroner has made legal history by ruling that air pollution was a cause of the death of a nine-year-old girl. Philip Barlow, the inner south London coroner, said Ella Kissi-Debrah’s death in February 2013 was caused by acute respiratory failure, severe asthma and air pollution exposure. He said she was exposed to nitrogen dioxide and particulate matter (PM) pollution in excess of World Health Organization guidelines, the principal source of which were traffic emissions. The coroner said the failure to reduce pollution levels to legal limits possibly contributed to her death, as did the failure to provide her mother with information about the potential for air pollution to exacerbate asthma. “Ella died of asthma contributed to by exposure to excessive air pollution,” said the coroner on Wednesday.
This young girl’s death had been subject to an inquest in 2014, which found she had died of acute respiratory failure. But, Cause of Death can be contentious and sometimes, political. In this case:
Ella’s mother, Rosamund Kissi-Debrah, a former teacher, spent years fighting to have her daughter’s death examined by a second coroner. Her resilience was repaid on Wednesday when Barlow agreed with expert medical evidence provided by the family which said Ella’s particular form of acute asthma was exacerbated by air pollution. Kissi-Debrah’s lawyers submitted that air pollution was a public health emergency and there was a pressing need for it to be recorded as a cause of death to ensure public health programmes to tackle toxic air were prioritised. In evidence to the two-week inquest, Prof Stephen Holgate, an immunopharmacologist and consultant respiratory physician of the University of Southampton and Southampton general hospital, said a biological cause of Ella’s disease getting worse in the winter months was the seasonal worsening air pollution. He said it was the cumulative effect of the toxic air Ella was breathing in living within 30 metres of the South Circular road that caused her final acute asthma attack. The Guardian
For those not familiar with London, UK, the South Circular Road is not a multi-lane major highway, but rather: “The South Circular is 20.5 miles (33.0 km) long. The majority of the road is single carriageway, one lane each way, aside from a small section of dual carriageway near the Woolwich Ferry. It is a primary road for its entire length” and “The South Circular has received sustained criticism for congestion and pollution and is one of the least popular roads in Britain.” [source: Wiki ]
In this case, we see the sad end of a young girl’s life. A young girl that had suffered from severe asthma for years and had been repeatedly hospitalized for asthma attacks and seizures. Somehow, the public health doctors had reportedly failed to inform her mother that asthma sufferers should not live where there are exacerbating circumstances, such as high ozone levels, high dust levels, high levels of roadway auto and truck exhaust. Her mother, a school teacher, should have known this, with or without public health officials specifically informing her, as all medical web sites on asthma feature this information.
In the end, it appears that a second coroners inquest has found, as should have been obvious from the beginning, that, as is common medical knowledge, roadway air pollutants can be a contributing trigger for asthma attacks. The landmark ruling though is almost entirely political — the shocking thing being that her family apparently remained ignorant of the basic facts that every parent of a child suffering from asthma would know.
As for Cause of Death, we see once more that it is not always a matter of simple medical facts and that the medical facts can be confused and conflated with other considerations and popular social movements.
# # # # #
Author’s Comment:
The area in which I live, the Central Hudson Valley of New York State, is listed as #19 on the Allergy Capitals of America list – one of the worst paces for allergy and asthma sufferers to live. Everyone with pollen allergies living here knows this and is rudely and painfully reminded of this twice a year (we are lucky enough to have two allergy seasons). If any parent of a child suffering from severe allergies living here had tried to claim ignorance of this simple fact, they would be laughed out of court.
As for science, in a greater sense, the concept of cause is a difficult issue, and, in my opinion, is most often mis-assigned based on vague association.
As many medical practitioners have begun to point out, Covid Deaths being reported in the media are more correctly characterized as “Deaths Involving Covid” and in many more cases, “Deaths with some vague association to Covid”.
Cause of Death is simply not simple.
# # # # #
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wattsupwiththat--2020-12-18--Preventing Ecosystem Collapse: Caribbean Coral Reefs

Media headlines have been promoting unrealistic fears of ecosystem collapse due to climate change .
Such fears get supported when the International Union for the Conservation of Nature ( IUCN ) designates some ecosystems as endangered , such as Caribbean Coral Reefs .
But reefs are resilient and the human factors threatening individual reefs can be remedied .
The Caribbean reef ecosystem consists of thousands of individual reefs spanning from the east coast of Mexico and Central America to Florida and the Bahamas and south to the coast of Venezuela .
Fifteen thousand years ago these reefs did not exist @ @ @ @ @ @ @ feet during the ice age .
Modern reefs became established 8,000 years ago by colonizing newly flooded coastlines .
Based on one IUCN criterion the Caribbean reef ecosystem was designated “ Least Concern ” due to the widespread occurrence of individual reefs .
In contrast , the loss of 59 % of total coral cover between 1971 and 2006 prompted the IUCN to designate the reef system as “ Endangered ” .
Coral cover naturally fluctuates with seaweeds ( macro-algae ) .
Coral are killed by hurricanes , disease or bleaching , which @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The seaweed is gradually reduced by algae-eating animals which allows coral to return to their former dominance .
Coral usually recover within 15 to 20 years , but recently their recovery has been extremely limited thus reducing coral cover .
Unlike the demonized sea urchins that threaten Alaska ’ s kelp forest , algae-eating urchins are vitally important in maintaining the balance between seaweeds and Caribbean coral .
The recent lack of coral recovery is largely attributed to a new disease that devastated urchin populations in the 1980s and minimized the urchins @ @ @ @ @ @ @ had been decimated in the 1980s by the novel White Band disease .
However , that disease only affected two coral species from the genus Acropora – staghorn and elkhorn coral .
Those species are now considered endangered .
Acropora ’ s evolutionary strategy was to quickly colonize vacated shores produced by natural disturbances like hurricanes .
These coral species thus dedicated their energy to rapid growth to out compete the seaweeds .
That adaptation allowed staghorn and elkhorn coral to rapidly colonize flooded coasts as sea level recovered from the last Ice @ @ @ @ @ @ @ But that strategy required diverting energy from building stronger reefs or resisting disease .
Because Acropora require shallow habitat they ’ re vulnerable to storm damage .
So , they evolved a reproductive strategy that produced new colonies by cloning new coral from storm damaged fragments .
However , cloning reduces genetic diversity which also made them more vulnerable to new diseases .
Mortality from bleaching also reduced coral cover .
Bleaching from unusually warm temperatures during summer 2005 and the 1998 El Nino is often highlighted .
Surprisingly , fatal cold weather @ @ @ @ @ @ @ January 2010 along the Florida Keys , cold weather killed 11.5 percent of the coral , which was 20 times worse than the 2005 warm weather mortality .
Understanding why both warm and cold weather causes bleaching provides insight into how coral have successfully adapted to ever changing climates over the past 220 million years .
Shallow water corals depend on photosynthesizing symbiotic algae ( aka symbionts ) that provide over 90 % of the coral ’ s energy .
However , those corals will remove one symbiont species and acquire a new @ @ @ @ @ @ @ changing weather conditions .
During the winter , colder temperatures and less light reduce photosynthesis .
So , coral increase their density of symbiotic algae to counteract reduced productivity .
But if it is too cold , the symbionts keep their energy supply for themselves .
As a result , coral remove the “ freeloaders ” causing bleaching .
A more productive cold‑tolerant symbiont must then be acquired , or the coral die .
In contrast during the summer , more light and higher temperatures produce so much energy , coral reduce their @ @ @ @ @ @ @ produces potentially harmful chemical by-products , coral remove symbionts to reduce the production of harmful chemicals .
That too causes coral to bleach , and unless a better adapted symbiont is acquired , the coral will die .
Despite that mortality risk , research now shows by switching their symbionts , coral can quickly adapt to warmer or cooler climates and enhance the species survival .
Studying fossil reefs , scientists determined that Caribbean corals had been declining decades before widespread bleaching and disease outbreaks occurred .
Growing human populations cleared the land @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Resulting soil runoff reduced water clarity required for efficient photosynthesis .
Increased sewage also reduced clarity and introduced pathogens .
Those stressors made coral more susceptible to subsequent bleaching and disease .
Soil runoff also added nutrients that tipped the ecological balance to favor seaweed growth , while overfishing removed seaweed‑eating fish that once restricted seaweed dominance .
We can , and are controlling soil runoff and treating sewage .
Fishing regulations are restoring the ecosystem that had balanced seaweeds and coral .
And with those protections , naturally resilient coral will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ : An Environmentalist ’ s Journey to Climate Skepticism and a member of the CO Coalition

What’s Natural ?
Guest post by Jim Steele
Media headlines have been promoting unrealistic fears of ecosystem collapse due to climate change. Such fears get supported when the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) designates some ecosystems as endangered, such as Caribbean Coral Reefs. But reefs are resilient and the human factors threatening individual reefs can be remedied.
The Caribbean reef ecosystem consists of thousands of individual reefs spanning from the east coast of Mexico and Central America to Florida and the Bahamas and south to the coast of Venezuela. Fifteen thousand years ago these reefs did not exist because sea level had fallen by 400 feet during the ice age. Modern reefs became established 8,000 years ago by colonizing newly flooded coastlines.
Based on one IUCN criterion the Caribbean reef ecosystem was designated “Least Concern” due to the widespread occurrence of individual reefs. In contrast, the loss of 59% of total coral cover between 1971 and 2006 prompted the IUCN to designate the reef system as “Endangered”.
Coral cover naturally fluctuates with seaweeds (macro-algae). Coral are killed by hurricanes, disease or bleaching, which allows seaweeds too colonize the vacated space. The seaweed is gradually reduced by algae-eating animals which allows coral to return to their former dominance. Coral usually recover within 15 to 20 years, but recently their recovery has been extremely limited thus reducing coral cover. Unlike the demonized sea urchins that threaten Alaska’s kelp forest, algae-eating urchins are vitally important in maintaining the balance between seaweeds and Caribbean coral. The recent lack of coral recovery is largely attributed to a new disease that devastated urchin populations in the 1980s and minimized the urchins’ consumption of seaweeds.
Caribbean corals had been decimated in the 1980s by the novel White Band disease. However, that disease only affected two coral species from the genus Acropora – staghorn and elkhorn coral. Those species are now considered endangered. Acropora’s evolutionary strategy was to quickly colonize vacated shores produced by natural disturbances like hurricanes. These coral species thus dedicated their energy to rapid growth to out compete the seaweeds. That adaptation allowed staghorn and elkhorn coral to rapidly colonize flooded coasts as sea level recovered from the last Ice Age and dominate modern Caribbean reefs. But that strategy required diverting energy from building stronger reefs or resisting disease.
Because Acropora require shallow habitat they’re vulnerable to storm damage. So, they evolved a reproductive strategy that produced new colonies by cloning new coral from storm damaged fragments. However, cloning reduces genetic diversity which also made them more vulnerable to new diseases.
Mortality from bleaching also reduced coral cover. Bleaching from unusually warm temperatures during summer 2005 and the 1998 El Nino is often highlighted. Surprisingly, fatal cold weather bleaching is rarely mentioned. Yet in January 2010 along the Florida Keys, cold weather killed 11.5 percent of the coral, which was 20 times worse than the 2005 warm weather mortality. Understanding why both warm and cold weather causes bleaching provides insight into how coral have successfully adapted to ever changing climates over the past 220 million years.
Shallow water corals depend on photosynthesizing symbiotic algae (aka symbionts) that provide over 90% of the coral’s energy. However, those corals will remove one symbiont species and acquire a new symbiont that is better adapted to the changing weather conditions. During the winter, colder temperatures and less light reduce photosynthesis. So, coral increase their density of symbiotic algae to counteract reduced productivity. But if it is too cold, the symbionts keep their energy supply for themselves. As a result, coral remove the “freeloaders” causing bleaching. A more productive cold‑tolerant symbiont must then be acquired, or the coral die.
In contrast during the summer, more light and higher temperatures produce so much energy, coral reduce their number of symbionts. Because photosynthesis also produces potentially harmful chemical by-products, coral remove symbionts to reduce the production of harmful chemicals. That too causes coral to bleach, and unless a better adapted symbiont is acquired, the coral will die. Despite that mortality risk, research now shows by switching their symbionts, coral can quickly adapt to warmer or cooler climates and enhance the species survival.
Studying fossil reefs, scientists determined that Caribbean corals had been declining decades before widespread bleaching and disease outbreaks occurred. Growing human populations cleared the land for farms, sugarcane and banana plantations. Resulting soil runoff reduced water clarity required for efficient photosynthesis. Increased sewage also reduced clarity and introduced pathogens. Those stressors made coral more susceptible to subsequent bleaching and disease. Soil runoff also added nutrients that tipped the ecological balance to favor seaweed growth, while overfishing removed seaweed‑eating fish that once restricted seaweed dominance.
We can, and are controlling soil runoff and treating sewage. Fishing regulations are restoring the ecosystem that had balanced seaweeds and coral. And with those protections, naturally resilient coral will steadily recover.
Jim Steele is Director emeritus of San Francisco State’s Sierra Nevada Field Campus,
authored Landscapes and Cycles: An Environmentalist’s Journey to Climate Skepticism,
and a member of the CO 2 Coalition
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wattsupwiththat--2020-12-18--Australia: Chinese Embargo of High Quality Aussie Coal is Increasing CO2 Emissions

Scratching around in the dirt in my garden in Nottinghamshire ( attempting escort mole , dead or alive , off the premises ) , I came upon lots of little black ‘ stones ’ mixed in the soil mowdy was excavating .
pebbles sized but not rounded , very course texture , obviously porous and very very lightweight From my childhood I recognised coke , made from coal .
When I was told that a WW2 air-force barracks/base used to be here , it made kind of sense Prior to that .
I ’ d sorted & picked these bits @ @ @ @ @ @ @ had bring up and popped them in in little plastic pot , meaning to ask one of the locals what they thought it was and how it came to be .
Then , the joys of an English Summer rained down upon us all .
Literally .
My little pot of ‘ black stones ’ filled with rainwater – as I concentrated on why my roof was raining in .
sigh Upon rediscovery , the bottom of the pot was chock full , a solid mass of ‘ Green Stuff ’ A lot @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Ohhh , I tinks , what ’ s this all about ?
How did this greenery get here and why does it simply looooove growing on these bits of black ?
But no , Ma Nature has to have a secret or 2 but it dawned.. What if Australia turned some of its coal into coke .
Lots of goodness comes out of it when you do , methane , hydrogen , carbon monoxide = nice clean fuels and then crunch up the coke and mix into what passes for topsoil/dirt in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ my little pot did It matter Not One Jot what the green actually is or if you have any plans for it .
Its green , its alive , its plant based and it will Fix The Climate given enough of the stuff I beg of you , do not burn it though .
Please don ’ t burn it .

Guest essay by Eric Worrall
According to the Australian Government, the Chinese Embargo of Australian Coal is increasing CO2 emissions, because the coal China is burning instead is lower quality. But there is a much better way for Australia to get China’s attention.
‘Bad outcome’: Australia to use coal strike to challenge China on emissions
By Eryk Bagshaw and Mike Foley
December 15, 2020 — 6.22pm
China and Australia’s trade dispute over coal threatens to escalate into a wider spat over climate change and net-zero emissions targets.
The Morrison government will use China’s indefinite ban on Australian coal to accuse Beijing of skirting its climate change commitments, as it responds to a major trade strike on Australia’s second largest export.
Prime Minister Scott Morrison on Tuesday said that coal imports from other countries “have 50 per cent higher emissions” than Australian coal. “As a result, that would be a bad outcome for the environment,” he said.
Trade Minister Simon Birmingham said China would have to increase its local production and imports from other countries, including Indonesia, Russia and Mongolia, whose thermal coal produces emissions higher than Australia’s.
Chinese state media on Monday confirmed a formal ban on thermal coal imports after months of Australian exports being stranded offshore. The strike on thermal coal, which is used to generate electricity, is the latest in half-a-dozen trade hits on Australian products after a year of rising tension over human rights and national security policies.
…


wattsupwiththat--2020-12-19--Why mRNA vaccines could revolutionise medicine

Matt Ridley has written a wonderfully optimistic piece at the Spectator about the technology leading up to the fast creation of Covid-19 vaccines around the world .
The first Covid-19 vaccine given to British people this month is not just a welcome breakthrough against a grim little enemy that has defied every other weapon we have tried , from handwashing to remdesivir and lockdowns .
It is also the harbinger of a new approach to medicine altogether .
Synthetic messengers that reprogram our cells to mount an immune response to almost any invader , including perhaps cancer , can now @ @ @ @ @ @ @ covers the history of development .
Katalin Karikó — the Hungarian-born scientist who doggedly pursued the idea behind this kind of medication for decades at the University of Pennsylvania before joining BioNTech — and her collaborator Drew Weissman may be the Watson and Brenner of this story .
They figured out 15 years ago how to send a message in a bubble into a cell and have it read .
For years they had tried putting in normal RNA and found it did not work ; the body spotted it was an alien @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in history as the year synthetic biology dealt a mortal blow to future viruses ?
But by subtly modifying one of the four letters in the message ( replacing uridine with pseudouridine , a chemical found in some RNAs in the body anyway ) , they made a version that escaped the attention of the cell ’ s MI5 agents .
Further refinements five years ago produced a recipe that worked reliably when delivered to cells inside a tiny oily bubble .
The pandemic is the first time the technique has been tried @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the first two Covid vaccines , BioNTech ’ s and Moderna ’ s , rely on these messengers .
And the potentially amazing ramifications for the future .
Now the principle has been approved by regulators , there may be no need to go through the same laborious and expensive three-phase clinical trials every time .
Faced with a truly lethal pandemic — with a 10 per cent mortality rate , say — the vanishingly small likelihood that a new messenger vaccine would be unsafe pales into insignificance .
You could deploy it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ more , at the cost of a few billion dollars , the world may now be able to build a library of messenger vaccines for every plausible coronavirus and influenza virus with pandemic potential we can find , test them in animals and store the recipes on a hard disk , ready to go at a moment ’ s notice .
Moderna ’ s vaccine was first synthesised in mid-January , before we even knew the coronavirus was coming out of China .
The full article by Matt Ridley is available at The @ @

Matt Ridley has written a wonderfully optimistic piece at the Spectator about the technology leading up to the fast creation of Covid-19 vaccines around the world.
The first Covid-19 vaccine given to British people this month is not just a welcome breakthrough against a grim little enemy that has defied every other weapon we have tried, from handwashing to remdesivir and lockdowns. It is also the harbinger of a new approach to medicine altogether. Synthetic messengers that reprogram our cells to mount an immune response to almost any invader, including perhaps cancer, can now be rapidly and cheaply made.
He covers the history of development.
Katalin Karikó — the Hungarian-born scientist who doggedly pursued the idea behind this kind of medication for decades at the University of Pennsylvania before joining BioNTech — and her collaborator Drew Weissman may be the Watson and Brenner of this story. They figured out 15 years ago how to send a message in a bubble into a cell and have it read. For years they had tried putting in normal RNA and found it did not work; the body spotted it was an alien and destroyed it.What if 2020 went down in history as the year synthetic biology dealt a mortal blow to future viruses? But by subtly modifying one of the four letters in the message (replacing uridine with pseudouridine, a chemical found in some RNAs in the body anyway), they made a version that escaped the attention of the cell’s MI5 agents. Further refinements five years ago produced a recipe that worked reliably when delivered to cells inside a tiny oily bubble. The pandemic is the first time the technique has been tried in anger, and it worked: the first two Covid vaccines, BioNTech’s and Moderna’s, rely on these messengers.
And the potentially amazing ramifications for the future.
Now the principle has been approved by regulators, there may be no need to go through the same laborious and expensive three-phase clinical trials every time. Faced with a truly lethal pandemic — with a 10 per cent mortality rate, say — the vanishingly small likelihood that a new messenger vaccine would be unsafe pales into insignificance. You could deploy it in weeks or days. What is more, at the cost of a few billion dollars, the world may now be able to build a library of messenger vaccines for every plausible coronavirus and influenza virus with pandemic potential we can find, test them in animals and store the recipes on a hard disk, ready to go at a moment’s notice. Moderna’s vaccine was first synthesised in mid-January, before we even knew the coronavirus was coming out of China.
The full article, worth reading, is available at The Spectator.
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wattsupwiththat--2020-12-18--Wrong Again: 2020’s Failed Climate Doomsaying

This one is a favorite .
How does one source ( the one controlling climate change agenda on the planet right now ) get so many things wrong…………and by such a wide margin , in just one article ?
PETER JAMES SPIELMANN June 29 , UNITED NATIONS ( AP ) _ A senior U.N. environmental official says entire nations could be wiped off the face of the Earth by rising sea levels if the global warming trend is not reversed by the year 2000 .
Coastal flooding and crop failures would create an exodus of ″eco- refugees , ′ ′ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , director of the New York office of the U.N .
Environment Program , or UNEP .
He said governments have a 10-year window of opportunity to solve the greenhouse effect before it goes beyond human control .
As the warming melts polar icecaps , ocean levels will rise by up to three feet , enough to cover the Maldives and other flat island nations , Brown told The Associated Press in an interview on Wednesday .
Coastal regions will be inundated ; one-sixth of Bangladesh could be flooded , displacing a fourth @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fifth of Egypt ’ s arable land in the Nile Delta would be flooded , cutting off its food supply , according to a joint UNEP and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency study .
″Ecological refugees will become a major concern , and what ’ s worse is you may find that people can move to drier ground , but the soils and the natural resources may not support life .
Africa doesn ’ t have to worry about land , but would you want to live in the Sahara ?
″ he said @ @ @ @ @ @ @ United States at least $ 100 billion to protect its east coast alone .
Shifting climate patterns would bring back 1930s Dust Bowl conditions to Canadian and U.S. wheatlands , while the Soviet Union could reap bumper crops if it adapts its agriculture in time , according to a study by UNEP and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis .
The most conservative scientific estimate that the Earth ’ s temperature will rise 1 to 7 degrees in the next 30 years , said Brown .
The difference may seem slight , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ only 9 degrees warmer now than during the 8,000-year Ice Age that ended 10,000 years ago .
Brown said if the warming trend continues , ″the question is will we be able to reverse the process in time ?
We say that within the next 10 years , given the present loads that the atmosphere has to bear , we have an opportunity to start the stabilizing process.″ He said even the most conservative scientists ″already tell us there ’ s nothing we can do now to stop a … change″ of about @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and we have to start thinking about the significant rise of the sea levels … we can expect more ferocious storms , hurricanes , wind shear , dust erosion.″ He said there is time to act , but there is no time to waste.
” +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ So far , by ignoring their cry to act , the biggest impact on the planet has been………..to green it up .
CO2 is the building block for life on this planet .
An entirely beneficial gas .
The optimal level is 900+ ppm , more than @ @ @ @ @ @ @ This is shown at the link below as well as busting Scientific American with their wrong and/or misleading statements .

Reposted from JunkScience.com
2020 has been the wildest and most unpredictable year in the memory of most people. But did the climate doom that was predicted to occur in or by 2020 materialize? What follows are 10 predictions made for 2020 and what really happened. As it turns out, climate doomsayers weren’t seeing so 20-20 when it came to 2020.
1. Average Global Temperature
1987: NASA’s James Hansen predicts world 3C warmer by 2020.
2020 Reality: Average temp only 0.44C higher.
2. Global Emissions
1978: CO2 levels to double from 1978 to 2020
2020 Reality: CO2 only ~23% from 1978 to 2020
3. China & India Emissions
2009: China to cut emissions 40-45% below 2005 level by 2020; India to cut 20-25%.
2020 Reality: China 2020 emissions ~85% HIGHER than 2005; India ~150% HIGHER.
4. Snows of Mt. Kilimanjaro
2008: Snow on Kilimanjaro to vanish by 2020.
2020 Reality: Yup. Snow still there.
5. Sea-level rise in Florida
1986: EPA predicts 2 feet of sea level rise for Florida by 2020.
2020 Reality: Sea level rise + subsidence in South Florida since 1986 has been less than 4 inches.
6. Snow
2000: By 2020 snow will be so unfamiliar, people won’t know how to deal with it.
2020 Reality: It still snows in the UK and Scotland boasts of its fleet of snow trucks ready for action.
7. Pacific Islands
2000: Global warming will ruin Pacific Island Nations economies by 2020.
2020 Reality: As of 2019, Tuvalu, for example, was enjoyiong an unprecedented 6-year economic growth spurt.
8. Global Conflict
2004: Pentagon says climate change-caused resources shortages to cause global war by 2020.
2020 Reality: Nations largely at peace. Planet only at war with coronavirus.
9. Arctic Ice
2013: Arctic ice-free by 2020.
2020 Reality: The prediction was 3.9 million square kilometers wrong at the annual minimum in September 2020.
10. Glacier National Park
2009: Glaciers gone from Glacier National Park by 2020.
2020 Reality: What are gone are the signs claiming Glacier National Park glaciers would be gone by 2020.
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wattsupwiththat--2020-12-19--Claim: China’s Covid-19 Recovery is Not Green Enough

Despite recent promises by President Xi Jinping that China has embraced firm CO2 targets , analysts are concerned that China still appears to be investing a lot of capital into expanding fossil fuel capacity .
Is China ’ s post-pandemic recovery off the green track ?
Recent data and local government moves have raised concerns that China ’ s post-pandemic recovery will not be green enough , but one high-level policy maker emphasises China ’ s policy continuity .
In September , the Chinese province of Hubei – where the first outbreak of Covid-19 occurred – announced 90 billion yuan @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of investment in the coal , electricity , oil and gas sectors over the next three years .
Provincial bosses described the move as intended to “ promote the post-pandemic recovery and high-quality development ” .
In October , work started in Guizhou on a 5.6-billion-yuan coal power plant , which planning documents say will create about 5,000 direct and indirect jobs .
Because of Covid-19 China ’ s carbon emissions dropped 11 % in the first quarter of 2020 , compared to the same period last year .
But emissions grew in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ year-on-year in May as the economy recovered .
That trend continued after June .
An earlier analysis by China Dialogue found that investment in traditional infrastructure was driving second quarter GDP growth – and creating emissions concerns .
Jorrit Gosens and Frank Jotzo of the Australian National University have said China ’ s recovery plan is no “ Green New Deal ” .
Although this is the first year China has not set a target for economic growth – indicating it will not , as it has in the past , pursue growth @ @ @ @ @ @ @ still flowing to fossil fuels , while there is little support for renewable energy to report .
Lauri Myllyvirta , chief analyst with the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air , has said that eight major energy-producing and consuming provinces in East China are planning to invest trillions in fossil fuels – three times as much as in low-carbon energy .
“ The ‘ major project lists ’ continue the policies and investment patterns of previous years , ” Myllyvirta told China Dialogue .
“ These patterns are far from green @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by fossil fuel projects .
”

Despite recent promises by President Xi Jinping that China has embraced firm CO2 targets, analysts are concerned that China still appears to be investing a lot of capital into expanding fossil fuel capacity.
Is China’s post-pandemic recovery off the green track?
Recent data and local government moves have raised concerns that China’s post-pandemic recovery will not be green enough, but one high-level policy maker emphasises China’s policy continuity.
Shi Yi
December 18, 2020
In September, the Chinese province of Hubei – where the first outbreak of Covid-19 occurred – announced 90 billion yuan (about US$14 billion) of investment in the coal, electricity, oil and gas sectors over the next three years. Provincial bosses described the move as intended to “promote the post-pandemic recovery and high-quality development”. In October, work started in Guizhou on a 5.6-billion-yuan coal power plant, which planning documents say will create about 5,000 direct and indirect jobs.
Because of Covid-19 China’s carbon emissions dropped 11% in the first quarter of 2020, compared to the same period last year. But emissions grew in the second quarter, up 5.4% year-on-year in May as the economy recovered. That trend continued after June. An earlier analysis by China Dialogue found that investment in traditional infrastructure was driving second quarter GDP growth – and creating emissions concerns.
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Jorrit Gosens and Frank Jotzo of the Australian National University have said China’s recovery plan is no “Green New Deal”. Although this is the first year China has not set a target for economic growth – indicating it will not, as it has in the past, pursue growth at any environmental cost – funding is still flowing to fossil fuels, while there is little support for renewable energy to report.
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Lauri Myllyvirta, chief analyst with the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, has said that eight major energy-producing and consuming provinces in East China are planning to invest trillions in fossil fuels – three times as much as in low-carbon energy. “The ‘major project lists’ continue the policies and investment patterns of previous years,” Myllyvirta told China Dialogue. “These patterns are far from green – energy sector investment is still dominated by fossil fuel projects.”
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