wattsupwiththat--2020-04-23--Using Cosmic Rays to Predict Volcanic Eruptions?

Are Cosmic Rays a Key to Forecasting Volcanic Eruptions ?
A combination of relativistic particles and artificial intelligence may provide a new way to forecast when a volcano could erupt .
Forecasting volcanic eruptions is notoriously challenging , but a team of Japanese scientists may have found a new method using relativistic particles from space .
A new pilot study , conducted on a highly active Japanese volcano , used a type of high-energy particle called a muon to map the interior structure of the volcano .
When analyzed with machine learning algorithms , these maps could help diagnose when @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Thus far , the feasibility of the method has been examined on only one volcano , but it could eventually be more widely applied as the technique is further refined .
Eruption forecasting typically relies on volcanic gas emissions , surface changes , or seismography—which measures trembles in the ground that are often a precursor to eruptions .
The new method instead took a visual approach and built on the imaging technique known as muography .
First developed in the 1970s to map secret chambers in Egyptian pyramids , muography uses cosmic rays—high-energy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the galaxy—to map giant objects , similar to an oversized X-ray machine .
Although this pilot study was conducted on only one volcano , it has the potential to be extended to other volcanoes in the future , though there are potential roadblocks .
Deep learning works only for large data sets , which don ’ t yet exist for many volcanoes .
And acquiring sufficient data requires a large number of eruptions , a limiting factor for volcanoes that aren ’ t as active as Sakurajima .
Citation : Johnson-Groh , M. @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a key to forecasting volcanic eruptions ?
, Eos , 101 , https : //doi.org/10.1029/2020EO142927 .
Published on 21 April 2020 .
Pretty cool schist !
Although this bit is funny : Cosmic rays can only be used to predict eruptions of volcanoes that erupt frequently .
Now , on to some very uncool schist… [ Insert hairpin-turn segue ] 0.1 % of Dallas County has tested positive for ChiCom-19 and 0.00 % have died from it .
At this rate , Dallas County will cross the Mendoza Line ( .200 batting average @ @ @ @ @ @ @ While Dallas County refuses to report how many residents have recovered from ChiCom-19 , so we can ’ t get an accurate count of active cases , the hospital and ICU admission rates indicate that Dallas County is well-past the peak… Despite the fact that Dallas County is clearly well-past the peak of the ChiCom-19 hostage crisis , Fire Marshal Gump has extended the hostage crisis through May 15… Dallas County Commissioners Extend ‘ Safer at Home ’ Order to May 15 Crowds gathered outside as Dallas County Commissioners worked through tough conversations @ @ @ @ @ @ @ By Alanna Quillen • Published April 21 , 2020 Dallas County Commissioners Tuesday voted 3-2 to extend the county ’ s Safer at Home order until May 15 , keeping restrictions in place about which businesses may operate and how large public gatherings may be while advising people to stay at home unless they are conducting “ essential business.
” The county reserves the option to extend the order depending on how cases and testing develops in the county in the coming weeks .
The county ’ s disaster declaration , a separate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 20 .
During the meeting a dozens of demonstrators staged a protest outside the County Administration Building at Dealey Plaza .
Critics of the stay-at-home order complained about the loss of jobs and income .
Several nurses , who said they were there to support public health , faced off with the demonstrators .
Dallas County Health and Human Services Director Dr. Philip Huang recommended that the court extend the Safer at Home order until May 31 .
Experts advised that cases should trend downward for at least two weeks before the community @ @ @ @ @ @ @ choice of May 15th was a compromise .
Commissioners John Wiley Price and J.J. Koch were the no votes .
They wanted a better schedule for reopening more non-essential businesses and restoring more jobs .
“ I ’ m talking about people and survival and so that ’ s the difference , ” Price said .
“ Give them an opportunity to survive.
” Truly strange times… I have been in almost total agreement with Dallas County Commissioner John Wiley Price over the past month… And I never agreed with him on anything @ @ @ @ @ @ @ votes to continue the hostage crisis into at least mid-May were : Gump and Dallas County Health and Human Services Director Dr. Philip Huang were among many government officials relying on the wildly inaccurate COVID Act Now models as justification for strangling our economy .
Bear in mind , the purpose of the COVID Act Now models is to perpetually keep the economy shut down : When Gump cited the model in the image above ( March 23 ) , Texas hospitals were on the verge of being overwhelmed with ChiCom-19 patients , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ economy .
The model has Texas at around 2,300 hospitalizations by April 8 .
As of April 20 , the number stood at 1,678 .
They have since adjusted their model downward to erase its past failures .
Even then , the current model has Texas hospitals looking like the “ bring out your dead ” scene in Monty Python and the Holy Grail , within two weeks of releasing the hostages .
I didn ’ t do a screen capture of the Texas model back on April 7 ; but I did @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a screen capture of New York and can compare it today ’ s model .
So why is the organization or seemingly innocent online mapping tool using inaccurate algorithms to scaremonger leaders into tanking the economy ?
Politics , of course .
Founders of the site include Democratic Rep. Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins and three Silicon Valley tech workers and Democratic activists — Zachary Rosen , Max Henderson , and Igor Kofman — who are all also donors to various Democratic campaigns and political organizations since 2016 .
Henderson and Kofman donated to the Hillary @ @ @ @ @ @ @ donated to the Democratic National Committee , recently resigned Democratic Rep. Katie Hill , and other Democratic candidates .
Prior to building the COVID Act Now website , Kofman created an online game designed to raise $ 1 million for the eventual 2020 Democratic candidate and defeat President Trump .
The game ’ s website is now defunct .
Perhaps the goal of COVID Act Now was never to provide accurate information , but to scare citizens and government officials into to implementing rash and draconian measures .
The creators even admit as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ model is designed to drive fast action , not predict the future.
” They generated this model under the guise of protecting communities from overrun hospitals , a trend that is not on track to happen as they predicted .
Not only is the data false , and looking more incorrect with each passing day , but the website is optimized for a disinformation campaign .
A social media share button prompts users to share their models and alarming graphs on Facebook and Twitter with the auto-fill text , “ This is the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ prevent X ’ s hospital system from being overloaded by Coronavirus.
” The votes to liberate the hostages at the end of April were : Fortunately for us hostages , the Governor of the Great State of Texas outranks Fire Marshal Gump .
In my never ending effort to eliminate political correctness , I refer to all things coronavirus as ChiCom-19 .
County Judge Clay Jenkins is the chief executive of Dallas County and presides over the County Commissioners Court .
He looks like the Jim Carrey character , Fire Marshal Bill from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Forrest Gump .
What do ChiCom-19 and Fire Marshal Gump have to do with using cosmic rays to predict volcanic eruptions ?

Guest “cool schist” by David Middleton
Are Cosmic Rays a Key to Forecasting Volcanic Eruptions?
A combination of relativistic particles and artificial intelligence may provide a new way to forecast when a volcano could erupt. By Mara Johnson-Groh 23 hours ago Forecasting volcanic eruptions is notoriously challenging, but a team of Japanese scientists may have found a new method using relativistic particles from space. A new pilot study, conducted on a highly active Japanese volcano, used a type of high-energy particle called a muon to map the interior structure of the volcano. When analyzed with machine learning algorithms, these maps could help diagnose when a volcano is about to blow. Thus far, the feasibility of the method has been examined on only one volcano, but it could eventually be more widely applied as the technique is further refined. Eruption forecasting typically relies on volcanic gas emissions, surface changes, or seismography—which measures trembles in the ground that are often a precursor to eruptions. The new method instead took a visual approach and built on the imaging technique known as muography. First developed in the 1970s to map secret chambers in Egyptian pyramids, muography uses cosmic rays—high-energy particles originating on the Sun and across the galaxy—to map giant objects, similar to an oversized X-ray machine. […] Although this pilot study was conducted on only one volcano, it has the potential to be extended to other volcanoes in the future, though there are potential roadblocks. Deep learning works only for large data sets, which don’t yet exist for many volcanoes. And acquiring sufficient data requires a large number of eruptions, a limiting factor for volcanoes that aren’t as active as Sakurajima. […] Citation: Johnson-Groh, M. (2020), Are cosmic rays a key to forecasting volcanic eruptions?, Eos, 101, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EO142927. Published on 21 April 2020. EOS
Pretty cool schist! Although this bit is funny:
[A]cquiring sufficient data requires a large number of eruptions, a limiting factor for volcanoes that aren’t as active as Sakurajima.
Cosmic rays can only be used to predict eruptions of volcanoes that erupt frequently.
Now, on to some very uncool schist… [Insert hairpin-turn segue]
Day Thirty-Something of America Held Hostage by ChiCom-19
Dallas County update, as of noon Tuesday…
4/22/2020 Dallas County CHICOM-19 Population Cases Deaths 2,637,772 2,602 64 2.5% % of population with 0.10% 0.00% % with, rounded 0.1% 0.00% % without 99.90% 100.00% % without, rounded 99.9% 100.0% Menodoza Line (.200) 12/15/2034 0.200
0.1% of Dallas County has tested positive for ChiCom-19 and 0.00% have died from it. At this rate, Dallas County will cross the Mendoza Line (.200 batting average) on December 15, 2034. While Dallas County refuses to report how many residents have recovered from ChiCom-19, so we can’t get an accurate count of active cases, the hospital and ICU admission rates indicate that Dallas County is well-past the peak…
Despite the fact that Dallas County is clearly well-past the peak of the ChiCom-19 hostage crisis, Fire Marshal Gump has extended the hostage crisis through May 15…
Dallas County Commissioners Extend ‘Safer at Home’ Order to May 15
Crowds gathered outside as Dallas County Commissioners worked through tough conversations regarding stay-at-home orders and relieving small business
By Alanna Quillen • Published April 21, 2020 Dallas County Commissioners Tuesday voted 3-2 to extend the county’s Safer at Home order until May 15, keeping restrictions in place about which businesses may operate and how large public gatherings may be while advising people to stay at home unless they are conducting “essential business.” The county reserves the option to extend the order depending on how cases and testing develops in the county in the coming weeks. The county’s disaster declaration, a separate document, is in effect until May 20. During the meeting a dozens of demonstrators staged a protest outside the County Administration Building at Dealey Plaza. Critics of the stay-at-home order complained about the loss of jobs and income. Several nurses, who said they were there to support public health, faced off with the demonstrators. Dallas County Health and Human Services Director Dr. Philip Huang recommended that the court extend the Safer at Home order until May 31. Experts advised that cases should trend downward for at least two weeks before the community begins to return to normal. The choice of May 15th was a compromise. Commissioners John Wiley Price and J.J. Koch were the no votes. They wanted a better schedule for reopening more non-essential businesses and restoring more jobs. “I’m talking about people and survival and so that’s the difference,” Price said. “Give them an opportunity to survive.” […] NBC5DFW
This is worth repeating:
“I’m talking about people and survival and so that’s the difference,” Price said. “Give them an opportunity to survive.” Dallas County Commissioner, Precinct 3 John Wiley Price (D)
Truly strange times… I have been in almost total agreement with Dallas County Commissioner John Wiley Price over the past month… And I never agreed with him on anything over the past 35 years.
The votes to continue the hostage crisis into at least mid-May were:
County Judge Clay Jenkins, AKA Fire Marshal Gump (D) Commissioner, Precinct 1 Theresa Daniel (D) Commissioner, Precinct 4 Elba Garcia (D)
All left-wing Democrats.
Gump and Dallas County Health and Human Services Director Dr. Philip Huang were among many government officials relying on the wildly inaccurate COVID Act Now models as justification for strangling our economy.
Dallas County Judge Clay (Fire Marshal Gump) Jenkins babbling incoherently.
Bear in mind, the purpose of the COVID Act Now models is to perpetually keep the economy shut down:
This model updates every 3 days and is intended to help make fast decisions, not predict the future.
Covid Act Now
When Gump cited the model in the image above (March 23), Texas hospitals were on the verge of being overwhelmed with ChiCom-19 patients, if we didn’t self-immolate our economy. The model has Texas at around 2,300 hospitalizations by April 8. As of April 20, the number stood at 1,678. They have since adjusted their model downward to erase its past failures. Even then, the current model has Texas hospitals looking like the “bring out your dead” scene in Monty Python and the Holy Grail, within two weeks of releasing the hostages. I didn’t do a screen capture of the Texas model back on April 7; but I did grab one today.
I did get a screen capture of New York and can compare it today’s model.
On April 8, New York has less than 16,000 hospitalized ChiCom-19 patients… But stood at the edge of the abyss.
As of April 22, New York State was still at the edge of the abyss.
So why is the organization or seemingly innocent online mapping tool using inaccurate algorithms to scaremonger leaders into tanking the economy? Politics, of course. Founders of the site include Democratic Rep. Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins and three Silicon Valley tech workers and Democratic activists — Zachary Rosen, Max Henderson, and Igor Kofman — who are all also donors to various Democratic campaigns and political organizations since 2016. Henderson and Kofman donated to the Hillary Clinton campaign in 2016, while Rosen donated to the Democratic National Committee, recently resigned Democratic Rep. Katie Hill, and other Democratic candidates. Prior to building the COVID Act Now website, Kofman created an online game designed to raise $1 million for the eventual 2020 Democratic candidate and defeat President Trump. The game’s website is now defunct. Perhaps the goal of COVID Act Now was never to provide accurate information, but to scare citizens and government officials into to implementing rash and draconian measures. The creators even admit as much with the caveat that “this model is designed to drive fast action, not predict the future.” They generated this model under the guise of protecting communities from overrun hospitals, a trend that is not on track to happen as they predicted. Not only is the data false, and looking more incorrect with each passing day, but the website is optimized for a disinformation campaign. A social media share button prompts users to share their models and alarming graphs on Facebook and Twitter with the auto-fill text, “This is the point of no return for intervention to prevent X’s hospital system from being overloaded by Coronavirus.” The Federalist
The votes to liberate the hostages at the end of April were:
Commissioner, Precinct 2 J.J. Koch (R) Commissioner, Precinct 3 John Wiley Price (D)
Fortunately for us hostages, the Governor of the Great State of Texas outranks Fire Marshal Gump.
Dallas County extends stay-at-home order through May 15, but Abbott may overrule action
BY STEFAN STEVENSON
APRIL 21, 2020 Dallas County extended its coronavirus pandemic stay-at-home order through May 15, two weeks beyond the statewide order from Gov. Greg Abbott. Tuesday’s 3-2 vote by county commissioners could be overruled by Abbott. Dallas County Judge Clay Jenkins, who cast one of the three votes to extend the order, said he’ll leave it up to the state to decide. […] Fort Worth Startle-Gram
ChiCom-19?
In my never ending effort to eliminate political correctness, I refer to all things coronavirus as ChiCom-19.
Fire Marshal Gump?
County Judge Clay Jenkins is the chief executive of Dallas County and presides over the County Commissioners Court. He looks like the Jim Carrey character, Fire Marshal Bill from In Living Color and he talks like Forrest Gump.
What do ChiCom-19 and Fire Marshal Gump have to do with using cosmic rays to predict volcanic eruptions?
Absolutely nothing.
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wattsupwiththat--2020-04-24--Virginia Governor raises cost of energy… when Virginians can least afford it

GOV .
NORTHAM RAISES ENERGY COSTS AS HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS ARE OUT OF WORK APRIL 22 , 2020 By Tim Benson , Aaron D. Stover If there ever was a time not to enact policies that would cost families , it would be in the midst of an economy-killing global pandemic .
With coronavirus rampaging throughout Virginia , effectively closing the commonwealth ’ s economy and pushing 306,000 people out of work in three weeks , Gov .
Ralph Northam has picked a terrible time to sign into law a group of regressive “ clean energy ” policies that will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in poverty by increasing their energy costs .
The first of these policies , the Virginia Clean Economy Act , establishes a renewable energy mandate forcing state utilities to produce 14 percent of their electricity generated from “ renewable ” sources in 2021 , gradually increasing the mandate to 100 percent by 2050 .
Representatives of the State Corporation Commission ( SCC ) testified in the House of Delegates that RGGI could cost Dominion Energy Virginia ratepayers $ 3.3 to $ 5.9 billion over the first decade , increasing average electricity bills $ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The Department of Environmental Quality estimates participation in RGGI would cost Virginians $ 65 million in 2020 .
Enacting this renewable energy mandate and joining RGGI is going to make everything more expensive for working families in Virginia while substantially raising costs for businesses .
The average Virginia resident at or below the poverty line already spends around a quarter of their take-home pay on energy costs .
Moreover , many small businesses are already in desperate financial positions because they have been ordered to close due to COVID-19 .
If there ever @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that would add to these costs , it would be in the midst of an economy-killing global pandemic .
Nobody knows how long the economic recovery will take , but it will surely take longer now that Northam has signed these impractical policies into law .
Natural gas and nuclear power currently account for 91 % of Virginia ’ s electricity generation .
It doesn ’ t get more “ climate friendly ” than this in the real world .
Currently Virginia ’ s average residential electricity rate ( $ 0.1169/kWh ) is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 0.1279/kWh ) .
Beyond imposing higher energy costs on Virginians , this is incredibly stupid , because Virginia ’ s current power mix is just about the most cost effective way to reduce carbon emissions… The dumbest thing Virginia could do would be to deploy solar panels like their neighbor to the south .
Despite ranking second in the nation in installed solar power capacity , only trailing the Peoples Republic of California , the Tarheel State generates very few MWh from all those solar arrays .
Virginia ’ s solar resource isn @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Carolina… This pretty well means that Virginia plans to go whole hog on offshore wind… Smart move , Governor Northam , almost a smart as your college Halloween costume .
At this time , I don ’ t know of any specific Virginia offshore wind prospects .
There has been a lot of talk about Vinyard Wind , offshore Massachusetts .
Despite public announcements of $ 65-75/MWh power purchase agreements ( PPA ) , Vinyard Wind , Massachusetts ’ first approved offshore wind project , has an estimated levelized revenue of energy ( @ @ @ @ @ @ @ than twice the LCOE of natural gas .
An extensive accounting of the PPA price schedule and expected revenue sources inclusive of those that are exogenous to the reported PPA is conducted in this study to estimate the project ’ s levelized revenue of energy ( LROE ) .
This allows for a more equivalent comparison of the reported PPA pricing with bottom-up modeled ( unsubsidized ) levelized cost of energy ( LCOE ) estimates .
The reader should note that this analysis solely reflects the opinions of the authors and was conducted @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Massachusetts Department of Energy Resources of the PPA between Vineyard Wind LLC and Massachusetts electric distribution companies as filed on July 31 , 2018 .
The analysis and conclusions described herein do not reflect actual cost data , which are confidential to Vineyard Wind and its partners .
The total calculated LROE from the Vineyard LLC/EDC PPA is estimated to be $ 98/MWh ( 2018 $ ) .
This LROE estimate for the first commercial-scale offshore wind project in the United States appears to be within the range of LROE estimated for offshore @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with a start of commercial operation by the early 2020s .
This suggests that the expected cost and risk premium for the initial set of U.S. offshore wind projects might be less pronounced than anticipated by many industry observers and analysts .
Doubling the cost of electricity for Virginians for no apparent reason… Ron White would say… Maybe that ’ s why Northam is trying to nullify the Second Amendment .

Guest “post that won’t mention ChiCom-19” by David Middleton
GOV. NORTHAM RAISES ENERGY COSTS AS HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS ARE OUT OF WORK
APRIL 22, 2020
By Tim Benson, Aaron D. Stover
If there ever was a time not to enact policies that would cost families, it would be in the midst of an economy-killing global pandemic. With coronavirus rampaging throughout Virginia, effectively closing the commonwealth’s economy and pushing 306,000 people out of work in three weeks, Gov. Ralph Northam has picked a terrible time to sign into law a group of regressive “clean energy” policies that will harm the roughly 870,000 Virginians who live in poverty by increasing their energy costs. The first of these policies, the Virginia Clean Economy Act, establishes a renewable energy mandate forcing state utilities to produce 14 percent of their electricity generated from “renewable” sources in 2021, gradually increasing the mandate to 100 percent by 2050. […] Representatives of the State Corporation Commission (SCC) testified in the House of Delegates that RGGI could cost Dominion Energy Virginia ratepayers $3.3 to $5.9 billion over the first decade, increasing average electricity bills $84 to $144 per year. The Department of Environmental Quality estimates participation in RGGI would cost Virginians $65 million in 2020. Enacting this renewable energy mandate and joining RGGI is going to make everything more expensive for working families in Virginia while substantially raising costs for businesses. The average Virginia resident at or below the poverty line already spends around a quarter of their take-home pay on energy costs. Moreover, many small businesses are already in desperate financial positions because they have been ordered to close due to COVID-19. If there ever was a time not to enact policies that would add to these costs, it would be in the midst of an economy-killing global pandemic. Nobody knows how long the economic recovery will take, but it will surely take longer now that Northam has signed these impractical policies into law. […] The Heartland Institute
You can’t get there from here. https://www.eia.gov/state/?sid=VA
Natural gas and nuclear power currently account for 91% of Virginia’s electricity generation. It doesn’t get more “climate friendly” than this in the real world.
Virginia Net Electricity Generation by Source Jan. 2020 https://www.eia.gov/state/?sid=VA#tabs-4 08:37:05 GMT-0500 (Central Daylight Time) Source: Energy Information Administration Electric Power Monthly Category 1,000 MWh % Petroleum-Fired 15 0.2% Natural Gas-Fired 5,790 61.9% Coal-Fired 259 2.8% Nuclear 2,751 29.4% Hydroelectric 154 1.6% Nonhydroelectric Renewables 390 4.2% Total 9,359 Natural Gas + Nuclear 8,541 91% Hydro. + Nonhydro. Renewables 544 6% US EIA
Currently Virginia’s average residential electricity rate ($0.1169/kWh) is slightly below the national average ($0.1279/kWh). Beyond imposing higher energy costs on Virginians, this is incredibly stupid, because Virginia’s current power mix is just about the most cost effective way to reduce carbon emissions…
Nuclear and gas kick @$$, wind breaks even and solar is a loser. http://www.realclearenergy.org/charticles/2014/08/01/solar_and_wind_more_expensive_than_realized_107939.html
The dumbest thing Virginia could do would be to deploy solar panels like their neighbor to the south.
North Carolina solar power generating stations.
Despite ranking second in the nation in installed solar power capacity, only trailing the Peoples Republic of California, the Tarheel State generates very few MWh from all those solar arrays.
North Carolina Net Electricity Generation by Source Jan. 2020 https://www.eia.gov/state/?sid=NC#tabs-4 10:06:33 GMT-0500 (Central Daylight Time) Source: Energy Information Administration Electric Power Monthly Category 1,000 MWh % Petroleum-Fired 17 0.2% Natural Gas-Fired 3,920 36.9% Coal-Fired 1,400 13.2% Nuclear 3,929 37.0% Hydroelectric 618 5.8% Nonhydroelectric Renewables 737 6.9% 10,621 Fossil fuels + Nuclear 9,266 87.2% Nonhydroelectric Renewables 737 6.9% https://www.eia.gov/state/?sid=NC#tabs-4
Virginia’s solar resource isn’t even as good as North Carolina…
Virginia’s onshore wind resource is also pretty feeble…
This pretty well means that Virginia plans to go whole hog on offshore wind…
Smart move, Governor Northam, almost a smart as your college Halloween costume.
LCOE = Levelized costt of electricity.
At this time, I don’t know of any specific Virginia offshore wind prospects. There has been a lot of talk about Vinyard Wind, offshore Massachusetts. Despite public announcements of $65-75/MWh power purchase agreements (PPA), Vinyard Wind, Massachusetts’ first approved offshore wind project, has an estimated levelized revenue of energy (LROE) of $98/MWh, more than twice the LCOE of natural gas.
An extensive accounting of the PPA price schedule and expected revenue sources inclusive of those that are exogenous to the reported PPA is conducted in this study to estimate the project’s levelized revenue of energy (LROE). This allows for a more equivalent comparison of the reported PPA pricing with bottom-up modeled (unsubsidized) levelized cost of energy (LCOE) estimates. The reader should note that this analysis solely reflects the opinions of the authors and was conducted independently of the ongoing evaluation by the Massachusetts Department of Energy Resources of the PPA between Vineyard Wind LLC and Massachusetts electric distribution companies as filed on July 31, 2018. The analysis and conclusions described herein do not reflect actual cost data, which are confidential to Vineyard Wind and its partners. The total calculated LROE from the Vineyard LLC/EDC PPA is estimated to be $98/MWh (2018$). This LROE estimate for the first commercial-scale offshore wind project in the United States appears to be within the range of LROE estimated for offshore wind projects recently tendered in Northern Europe with a start of commercial operation by the early 2020s. This suggests that the expected cost and risk premium for the initial set of U.S. offshore wind projects might be less pronounced than anticipated by many industry observers and analysts. https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy19osti/72981.pdf
Doubling the cost of electricity for Virginians for no apparent reason… Ron White would say…
Maybe that’s why Northam is trying to nullify the Second Amendment.
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wattsupwiththat--2020-04-24--Continued CO2 Emissions Will Impair Cognition

Rising CO2 causes more than a climate crisis—it may directly harm our ability to think As the 21st century progresses , rising atmospheric carbon dioxide ( CO ) concentrations will cause urban and indoor levels of the gas to increase , and that may significantly reduce our basic decision-making ability and complex strategic thinking , according to a new CU Boulder-led study .
By the end of the century , people could be exposed to indoor CO levels up to 1400 parts per million—more than three times today ’ s outdoor levels and well beyond what humans have ever experienced @ @ @ @ @ @ @ high CO levels get in enclosed spaces , ” said Kris Karnauskas , CIRES Fellow , associate professor at CU Boulder and lead author of the new study published today in the AGU journal GeoHealth .
“ It affects everybody—from little kids packed into classrooms to scientists , business people and decision makers to regular folks in their houses and apartments.
” Shelly Miller , professor in CU Boulder ’ s school of engineering and coauthor adds that “ building ventilation typically modulates CO levels in buildings , but there are situations when @ @ @ @ @ @ @ enough fresh air to dilute the CO .
” CO can also build up in poorly ventilated spaces over longer periods of time , such as overnight while sleeping in bedrooms , she said .
Put simply , when we breathe air with high CO levels , the CO levels in our blood rise , reducing the amount of oxygen that reaches our brains .
Studies show that this can increase sleepiness and anxiety , and impair cognitive function .
We all know the feeling : Sit too long in a stuffy , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ many of us begin to feel drowsy or dull .
In general , CO concentrations are higher indoors than outdoors , the authors wrote .
And outdoor CO in urban areas is higher than in pristine locations .
The CO concentrations in buildings are a result of both the gas that is otherwise in equilibrium with the outdoors , and also the CO generated by building occupants as they exhale .
Atmospheric CO levels have been rising since the Industrial Revolution , reaching a 414 ppm peak at NOAA ’ s Mauna Loa @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the ongoing scenario in which people on Earth do not reduce greenhouse gas emissions , the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicts outdoor CO levels could climb to 930 ppm by 2100 .
And urban areas typically have around 100 ppm CO higher than this background .
Karnauskas and his colleagues developed a comprehensive approach that considers predicted future outdoor CO concentrations and the impact of localized urban emissions , a model of the relationship between indoor and outdoor CO levels and the impact on human cognition .
They found that if the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ppm , that would nudge the indoor concentrations to a harmful level of 1400 ppm .
“ At this level , some studies have demonstrated compelling evidence for significant cognitive impairment , ” said Anna Schapiro , assistant professor of psychology at the University of Pennsylvania and a coauthor on the study .
“ Though the literature contains some conflicting findings and much more research is needed , it appears that high level cognitive domains like decision-making and planning are especially susceptible to increasing CO concentrations.
” In fact , at 1400 ppm @ @ @ @ @ @ @ decision-making ability by 25 percent , and complex strategic thinking by around 50 percent , the authors found .

From Cires
Rising CO2 causes more than a climate crisis—it may directly harm our ability to think
Monday, April 20, 2020
As the 21st century progresses, rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) concentrations will cause urban and indoor levels of the gas to increase, and that may significantly reduce our basic decision-making ability and complex strategic thinking, according to a new CU Boulder-led study. By the end of the century, people could be exposed to indoor CO 2 levels up to 1400 parts per million—more than three times today’s outdoor levels and well beyond what humans have ever experienced.
“It’s amazing how high CO 2 levels get in enclosed spaces,” said Kris Karnauskas, CIRES Fellow, associate professor at CU Boulder and lead author of the new study published today in the AGU journal GeoHealth. “It affects everybody—from little kids packed into classrooms to scientists, business people and decision makers to regular folks in their houses and apartments.”
Shelly Miller, professor in CU Boulder’s school of engineering and coauthor adds that “building ventilation typically modulates CO 2 levels in buildings, but there are situations when there are too many people and not enough fresh air to dilute the CO 2 .” CO 2 can also build up in poorly ventilated spaces over longer periods of time, such as overnight while sleeping in bedrooms, she said.
Put simply, when we breathe air with high CO 2 levels, the CO 2 levels in our blood rise, reducing the amount of oxygen that reaches our brains. Studies show that this can increase sleepiness and anxiety, and impair cognitive function.
We all know the feeling: Sit too long in a stuffy, crowded lecture hall or conference room and many of us begin to feel drowsy or dull. In general, CO 2 concentrations are higher indoors than outdoors, the authors wrote. And outdoor CO 2 in urban areas is higher than in pristine locations. The CO 2 concentrations in buildings are a result of both the gas that is otherwise in equilibrium with the outdoors, and also the CO 2 generated by building occupants as they exhale.
Atmospheric CO 2 levels have been rising since the Industrial Revolution, reaching a 414 ppm peak at NOAA’s Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii in 2019. In the ongoing scenario in which people on Earth do not reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicts outdoor CO 2 levels could climb to 930 ppm by 2100. And urban areas typically have around 100 ppm CO 2 higher than this background.
Karnauskas and his colleagues developed a comprehensive approach that considers predicted future outdoor CO 2 concentrations and the impact of localized urban emissions, a model of the relationship between indoor and outdoor CO 2 levels and the impact on human cognition. They found that if the outdoor CO 2 concentrations do rise to 930 ppm, that would nudge the indoor concentrations to a harmful level of 1400 ppm.
“At this level, some studies have demonstrated compelling evidence for significant cognitive impairment,” said Anna Schapiro, assistant professor of psychology at the University of Pennsylvania and a coauthor on the study. “Though the literature contains some conflicting findings and much more research is needed, it appears that high level cognitive domains like decision-making and planning are especially susceptible to increasing CO 2 concentrations.”
In fact, at 1400 ppm, CO 2 concentrations may cut our basic decision-making ability by 25 percent, and complex strategic thinking by around 50 percent, the authors found.
Full article here
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wattsupwiththat--2020-04-24--Financiers of poverty, malnutrition and death – Part 2

It ’ s easy to farm organically in the wealthy , advanced EU and USA , where consumers can afford much more expensive organic meats , eggs , fruits and vegetables .
It ’ s much harder if you have to deal with the insects and crop diseases that plague African farmers on constant massive levels and locusts that bring true catastrophes every few decades – and then sell your meager crop yields to impoverished families .
That modern pesticides might save billions of dollars of crops every year and stop locusts before they can swarm by the tens of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ feed more people , from less land , with less water , with greater resistance to insects , with less need for chemical pesticides ( natural or manmade ) – never seems to occur , or matter , to those who demand nothing but organic for Africa .
Many African farmers are women , who today have almost no “ right to choose ” when it comes to which crops they will plant .
They labor sunup to sundown on mostly 2 to 5-acre plats , yet rarely have enough produce to feed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for extra money .
Millions live on a few dollars a day .
A 2005 Congress of Racial Equality biotechnology conference in the United Nations General Assembly hall and a related video documentary , “ Voices from Africa : Biotechnology and the subsistence farmer , ” dramatically highlighted the difficulties facing the continent ’ s farmers – and the ways GM/biotech crops can improve their lives , especially crops enhanced with Bacillus thuringiensis ( Bt ) genes that enable plants to kill insects that feed on the crops , while leaving beneficial insects @ @ @ @ @ @ @ much of Africa ’ s most important crop .
But because of drought , poor soil , multiple plant diseases , voracious insects , and lack of modern fertilizers , irrigation and mechanized equipment , average yields per acre in Sub-Saharan Africa are about the lowest in the world .
Other crops suffer similar fates .
“ I grow maize on a half hectare ” ( 1.25 acres ) , South Africa ’ s Elizabeth Ajele explained in the video .
“ The old plants would be destroyed by insects , but not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ profits I get from the new Bt maize , I can grow onions , spinach and tomatoes , and sell them for extra money to buy fertilizer .
We were struggling to keep hunger out of our house .
Now the future looks good .
If someone came and said we should stop using the new maize , I would cry.
” Countryman Richard Sithole shared her excitement .
“ Now I don ’ t have to buy chemical pesticides .
With the old maize , I got 100 bags from my 15 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 1,000 bags .
Now I have money to buy better food and send my children and grandchildren to school and even university.
” It was the same story with cotton .
“ With the new Bt cotton , I only spray pesticides two times , instead of six .
At the end of the day , we know the crop won ’ t be destroyed and we will have a harvest and money , ” South African widow , school principal and mother of five Thandi Myeni explained .
“ I sprayed five @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sometimes the insects still destroyed my entire crop , ” Kenyan Alice Wambuii said .
“ We would get pesticides all over our bodies .
Last year , I got 3,000 shillings for my cotton , but I had to spend 5,000 shillings for sprays.
” Bt cotton changed that for her , too .
Biotech maize and cotton enabled these South African farmers to triple their profits , cut their pesticide use up to 75 % and save 35-49 days per season working in fields – mostly spraying pesticides by hand .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ Life looked much better .
But then the cabal of anti-biotech , anti-pesticide , agro-ecology pressure groups launched new attacks , aided by the growing network of ideologically like-minded donors that helped magnify anti-technology programs and messages – often while insulating the big financiers from direct connections to the radical , callous , eco-imperialist pressure groups .
The hopes and dreams , livelihoods and farming preferences of these African farmers mean nothing to the cabal .
The Swift Foundation was founded by an heir to a major stockholder in United Parcel Service , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Endowed with over $ 60 million , it awards grants of over $ 2 million a year and has been a major supporter of pro-organic , anti-agricultural technology organizations in the USA and abroad .
They include : Greenpeace , the Pesticide Action Network , the Center for Food Safety ( long a promoter of radical anti-GMO activist Vandana Shiva ) , and AgroEcology Fund ( AEF ) .
The Christensen Fund was created in 1957 by heirs of a wealthy industrial engineer .
Its $ 300 million in assets support “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ its Rift Valley Program , which funds “ stewards ” ( subsistence farmers ) who want to “ maintain culture-based livelihoods on their ancestral lands and adapt their resource management systems in innovative ways that advance food sovereignty and resilience.
” ( Resilience until they are confronted by droughts , locusts and other insects . )
The New Field Foundation ( NFF ) was founded in 2002 with money from San Francisco based real estate developers Barbara and D. Thomson Sargent .
It claims to support the efforts of rural women to overcome @ @ @ @ @ @ @ communities .
But it opposes biotech crops and other modern agricultural technologies , and gives hefty sums to La Via Campesina and other activists in Africa .
The NFF supports and works with the AEF and is a grantor to the Tides Center/Foundation .
With assets of nearly $ 200 million , Tides helps philanthropies “ manage and direct ” their giving , but has been described as behaving “ less like a philanthropy and more like a money laundering enterprise.
” The Center also receives funding and support from major US foundations @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Fund , Charles Stewart Mott Foundation , Rockefeller Brothers Fund , and David and Lucille Packard Foundation .
The Schmidt Family Foundation ( SFF ) was established in 2006 by Wendy and Eric Schmidt , former executive chairman of Google .
Its estimated assets of $ 178 million , including Google stock primarily help finance advancing “ the wiser use of energy and natural resources to support efforts worldwide that empower communities to build resilient systems for food , water and human resources.
” ( Resilience again . )
The SFF has donated @ @ @ @ @ @ @ groups like the Center for Biological Diversity , Center for Food Safety , Environmental Working Group , Friends of the Earth , Pesticide Action Network – and Greenpeace , an implacable opponent of Golden Rice .
This miracle rice could prevent some 500,000 children from going blind and save 250,000 lives every year from Vitamin A deficiency and malnutrition .
But opposition to Golden Rice caused the loss of at least 1,424,680 life years in India alone just between 2003 and 2013 .
Greenpeace couldn ’ t care less .
To date , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 1 ) has provided more than $ 6 million dollars to organizations that promote subsistence farming as a supposed alternative to far more productive modern farming technologies and methods .
This includes over $ 500,000 over the years to the Alliance for Food Sovereignty in Africa , as well as $ 200,000 to La Via Campesina and GroundSwell International .
In the USA , AEF and NFF donors and advisors have included the Packard Foundation , Ben & Jerry Foundation , Swift Foundation , Wallace Global Fund and many others around the world @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Pesticide Action Network Asia sits on AEF ’ s advisory board , and the global network of financiers finds ways to support PANA and many other ultra-radical groups .
Other callous foundations supporting Friends of the Earth ( a core member of AFSA , along with La Via Campesina ) has come from the Packard Foundation ( $ 600,000 ) , Foundation for the Carolinas ( $ 5,000,000 ) , Charles Stewart Mott Foundation ( $ 500,000 ) , Ford Foundation ( $ 328,500 ) , Rockefeller Brothers Fund ( $ 300,000 ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
These financiers and the radical organizations they support perpetuate what many would justifiably call crimes against humanity .
They use their tax-exempt status and clever terminology ( like agro-ecology , sustainability and food sovereignty ) to advance programs that deny people access to modern agricultural technologies that would improve crop yields , increase family wealth , prevent blindness and save lives .
They should be condemned and deprived of their tax-exempt status , for eco-imperialism and making false and ultimately lethal claims about the farming methods they promote and the modern methods @ @ @ @ @ @ @ American farmers from practicing .
Paul Driessen is senior policy analyst for the Committee For A Constructive Tomorrow ( www.CFACT.org ) and author of Eco-Imperialism : Green power ● Black death and other books and articles on energy , environment , climate and human rights issues .

Private ‘philanthropic’ foundations keep African families destitute, malnourished, dying early
Paul Driessen
It’s easy to farm organically in the wealthy, advanced EU and USA, where consumers can afford much more expensive organic meats, eggs, fruits and vegetables. It’s much harder if you have to deal with the insects and crop diseases that plague African farmers on constant massive levels and locusts that bring true catastrophes every few decades – and then sell your meager crop yields to impoverished families.
That modern pesticides might save billions of dollars of crops every year and stop locusts before they can swarm by the tens of billions – or that bioengineered crops might feed more people, from less land, with less water, with greater resistance to insects, with less need for chemical pesticides (natural or manmade) – never seems to occur, or matter, to those who demand nothing but organic for Africa.
Many African farmers are women, who today have almost no “right to choose” when it comes to which crops they will plant. They labor sunup to sundown on mostly 2 to 5-acre plats, yet rarely have enough produce to feed their own families, much less sell for extra money. Millions live on a few dollars a day.
A 2005 Congress of Racial Equality biotechnology conference in the United Nations General Assembly hall and a related video documentary, “Voices from Africa: Biotechnology and the subsistence farmer,” dramatically highlighted the difficulties facing the continent’s farmers – and the ways GM/biotech crops can improve their lives, especially crops enhanced with Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) genes that enable plants to kill insects that feed on the crops, while leaving beneficial insects unharmed.
Maize (corn) is much of Africa’s most important crop. But because of drought, poor soil, multiple plant diseases, voracious insects, and lack of modern fertilizers, irrigation and mechanized equipment, average yields per acre in Sub-Saharan Africa are about the lowest in the world. Other crops suffer similar fates.
“I grow maize on a half hectare” (1.25 acres), South Africa’s Elizabeth Ajele explained in the video. “The old plants would be destroyed by insects, but not the new biotech plants. With the profits I get from the new Bt maize, I can grow onions, spinach and tomatoes, and sell them for extra money to buy fertilizer. We were struggling to keep hunger out of our house. Now the future looks good. If someone came and said we should stop using the new maize, I would cry.”
Countryman Richard Sithole shared her excitement. “Now I don’t have to buy chemical pesticides. With the old maize, I got 100 bags from my 15 hectares. With Bt maize I get 1,000 bags. Now I have money to buy better food and send my children and grandchildren to school and even university.”
It was the same story with cotton. “With the new Bt cotton, I only spray pesticides two times, instead of six. At the end of the day, we know the crop won’t be destroyed and we will have a harvest and money,” South African widow, school principal and mother of five Thandi Myeni explained.
“I sprayed five times a season with pesticides, but sometimes the insects still destroyed my entire crop,” Kenyan Alice Wambuii said. “We would get pesticides all over our bodies. Last year, I got 3,000 shillings for my cotton, but I had to spend 5,000 shillings for sprays.” Bt cotton changed that for her, too.
Biotech maize and cotton enabled these South African farmers to triple their profits, cut their pesticide use up to 75% and save 35-49 days per season working in fields – mostly spraying pesticides by hand.
That was just 15 years ago. Life looked much better. But then the cabal of anti-biotech, anti-pesticide, agro-ecology pressure groups launched new attacks, aided by the growing network of ideologically like-minded donors that helped magnify anti-technology programs and messages – often while insulating the big financiers from direct connections to the radical, callous, eco-imperialist pressure groups. The hopes and dreams, livelihoods and farming preferences of these African farmers mean nothing to the cabal.
The Swift Foundation was founded by an heir to a major stockholder in United Parcel Service, from monies created by UPS going public. Endowed with over $60 million, it awards grants of over $2 million a year and has been a major supporter of pro-organic, anti-agricultural technology organizations in the USA and abroad. They include: Greenpeace, the Pesticide Action Network, the Center for Food Safety (long a promoter of radical anti-GMO activist Vandana Shiva), and AgroEcology Fund (AEF).
The Christensen Fund was created in 1957 by heirs of a wealthy industrial engineer. Its $300 million in assets support “biocultural diversity” and fund projects like its Rift Valley Program, which funds “stewards” (subsistence farmers) who want to “maintain culture-based livelihoods on their ancestral lands and adapt their resource management systems in innovative ways that advance food sovereignty and resilience.” (Resilience until they are confronted by droughts, locusts and other insects.)
The New Field Foundation (NFF) was founded in 2002 with money from San Francisco based real estate developers Barbara and D. Thomson Sargent. It claims to support the efforts of rural women to overcome poverty, violence and injustice in their communities. But it opposes biotech crops and other modern agricultural technologies, and gives hefty sums to La Via Campesina and other activists in Africa.
The NFF supports and works with the AEF and is a grantor to the Tides Center/Foundation. With assets of nearly $200 million, Tides helps philanthropies “manage and direct” their giving, but has been described as behaving “less like a philanthropy and more like a money laundering enterprise.” The Center also receives funding and support from major US foundations, including the NFF, Wallace Global Fund, Charles Stewart Mott Foundation, Rockefeller Brothers Fund, and David and Lucille Packard Foundation.
The Schmidt Family Foundation (SFF) was established in 2006 by Wendy and Eric Schmidt, former executive chairman of Google. Its estimated assets of $178 million, including Google stock primarily help finance advancing “the wiser use of energy and natural resources to support efforts worldwide that empower communities to build resilient systems for food, water and human resources.” (Resilience again.) The SFF has donated directly to radical domestic and global agro-ecology groups like the Center for Biological Diversity, Center for Food Safety, Environmental Working Group, Friends of the Earth, Pesticide Action Network – and Greenpeace, an implacable opponent of Golden Rice.
This miracle rice could prevent some 500,000 children from going blind and save 250,000 lives every year from Vitamin A deficiency and malnutrition. But opposition to Golden Rice caused the loss of at least 1,424,680 life years in India alone just between 2003 and 2013. Greenpeace couldn’t care less.
To date, the AgroEcology Fund (discussed in Part 1) has provided more than $6 million dollars to organizations that promote subsistence farming as a supposed alternative to far more productive modern farming technologies and methods. This includes over $500,000 over the years to the Alliance for Food Sovereignty in Africa, as well as $200,000 to La Via Campesina and GroundSwell International.
In the USA, AEF and NFF donors and advisors have included the Packard Foundation, Ben & Jerry Foundation, Swift Foundation, Wallace Global Fund and many others around the world. A representative of the radical anti-technology Pesticide Action Network Asia sits on AEF’s advisory board, and the global network of financiers finds ways to support PANA and many other ultra-radical groups.
Other callous foundations supporting Friends of the Earth (a core member of AFSA, along with La Via Campesina) has come from the Packard Foundation ($600,000), Foundation for the Carolinas ($5,000,000), Charles Stewart Mott Foundation ($500,000), Ford Foundation ($328,500), Rockefeller Brothers Fund ($300,000) and Schmidt Foundation ($125,000).
These financiers and the radical organizations they support perpetuate what many would justifiably call crimes against humanity. They use their tax-exempt status and clever terminology (like agro-ecology, sustainability and food sovereignty) to advance programs that deny people access to modern agricultural technologies that would improve crop yields, increase family wealth, prevent blindness and save lives.
They should be condemned and deprived of their tax-exempt status, for eco-imperialism and making false and ultimately lethal claims about the farming methods they promote and the modern methods they prevent African, Asian and Latin American farmers from practicing.
Paul Driessen is senior policy analyst for the Committee For A Constructive Tomorrow (www.CFACT.org) and author of Eco-Imperialism: Green power ● Black death and other books and articles on energy, environment, climate and human rights issues.
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wattsupwiththat--2020-04-24--Not Running Out of Oil, or Sunshine

Not Running Out of Oil, or Sunshine

I remember through the 1970s , we were meant to run out of oil , soon .
In fact , as long as I can remember we have been running out of oil , soon .
Instead , oversupply is such that the benchmark for US oil fell below zero for the first time ever a couple of days ago .
That is , the share market suggested oil couldn ’ t even be given away because it was in such oversupply .
There is no shortage of oil despite more than 7.6 billion people on planet Earth , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Prices have collapsed , because despite all the pumping from ‘ Mother Earth ’ since I was a child , there is still more .
Because of the pandemic , global demand , not supply , has fallen dramatically .
In fact , the worldwide supply glut has created a worldwide shortage of storage space for oil .
Oil futures collapsed to below zero for the first time ever Yet still we have movies by famous Americans claiming an imminent shortage because : That ’ s according to the latest Michael Moore movie @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , released earlier this week , which was about the same time oil couldn ’ t be given away .
The movie is long and a bit tedious and laments our so-called ‘ addiction ’ to not only oil , but also coal .
Yet it is different , because it also effectively shows up ‘ renewables ’ as something of a scam , if their objective is long term energy security and sustainability .
Surprisingly for Moore , the movie looks beyond the popular to explain that whether solar panels or wind @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fossil fuel ’ infrastructure .
In the movie , Moore interviews a technician who explains how silicon is mined and then processed in very hot furnaces with coal .
And that this is what solar panels are actually made of – silicon and coal !
The qualities of cement and steel consumed in the construction of a single wind turbine are also detailed .
The new Michael Moore movie also shows us electric cars fuelled by a power grid based on 95 % coal .
So , is electricity from coal better than @ @ @ @ @ @ @ still have any of either of them ?
Since I was a young girl at the beach , these type of documentaries have explained we are running out of both .
I am also reminded of how the prices of various natural resources has tended down over the past few decades .
It was in the early 1980s that Julian Simon famously betted Paul Ehrlich that the price of Cooper , chromium , nickel , tin and tungsten would fall .
And they have .
Julian Simon explains why in his book The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ back in the early 1980s , and still today , the conventional wisdom has claimed we would all be undone by resource scarcity .
Simon explains that our notions of increasing resource-scarcity ignores the long-term declines in wage-adjusted raw material prices because of innovation .
Another book , ‘ The Future and Its Enemies ’ written by Virgina Postrel and published in 1999 puts more context around the notion of innovation .
Interestingly Postrel explains why government regulation may only be a problem when it limits innovation .
Further , Postrel suggests notions @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ in politics are some what meaningless .
She suggests the more significant battles will be between the values of a type of person she refers to as the ‘ dynamists ’ versus the ‘ statists ’ .
Quoting from an interview some time ago : In the book , I talk about the sort of core values of dynamists versus stasists .
The core values of dynamists are – it ’ s really about learning .
It ’ s about discovery .
The idea is we don ’ t really know the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that requires a lot of experimentation , trial and error learning , competition , criticism .
It ’ s a messy process , but it ’ s the process through which we discover better ways of doing things , whether that ’ s in business , technology , or the way we live our everyday lives .
On the stasis side , there ’ s sort of two competing or two complementary ideas rather .
One is the ideal of stability – that the good society is the society that doesn ’ t @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I associate with sort of technocratic stasis , is the idea of control – that someone needs to be in charge to set us on the right path and to decide centrally what that will be .
How might this pandemic show the need for regulation and cohesion , while allowing innovation ?
That oil prices are at unprecedented lows must be upsetting established world orders ?
I hope so .
Then again , I ’ m a dynamist .
It is a fact that there has never been so many people on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a time of great wealth but also great uncertainty .
Our times perhaps provide unique opportunities for both Postrel ’ s dynamists and also the technocratic stasis .
In Australia and around the world , how much have our values changed in just the last two months ?
And yet we have perhaps more social cohesion , at least here in Australia ?
And many are looking for new rules of engagement , to provide some certainty .
As long as the rules created by the technocrats are clear , and there is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for great innovation : for us to innovate our way out of this pandemic .
It should be possible through trial and error , spontaneous adjustment , and adaptation – even if we can ’ t travel , or party , or watch sport .
In fact , there may be more time for thinking .
It is a fact that we can still innovate for a new and different future , and that the best things in life will still be free , even if the movie-makers keep telling us that we @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
In Noosa where I live , the sun is still shining , and it shines for everyone .

From Jennifer Marohasy’s Blog
April 23, 2020 By jennifer
I remember through the 1970s, we were meant to run out of oil, soon. In fact, as long as I can remember we have been running out of oil, soon.
Instead, oversupply is such that the benchmark for US oil fell below zero for the first time ever a couple of days ago. That is, the share market suggested oil couldn’t even be given away because it was in such oversupply.
There is no shortage of oil despite more than 7.6 billion people on planet Earth, and so many vehicles powered by it.
Prices have collapsed, because despite all the pumping from ‘Mother Earth’ since I was a child, there is still more. Because of the pandemic, global demand, not supply, has fallen dramatically. In fact, the worldwide supply glut has created a worldwide shortage of storage space for oil.
The headlines read:
Oil futures collapsed to below zero for the first time ever
Oil plunges for a second day
Yet still we have movies by famous Americans claiming an imminent shortage because:
Too many human beings are using too much, too fast …
That’s according to the latest Michael Moore movie entitled ‘Planet of the Humans’, released earlier this week, which was about the same time oil couldn’t be given away.
The movie is long and a bit tedious and laments our so-called ‘addiction’ to not only oil, but also coal. Yet it is different, because it also effectively shows up ‘renewables’ as something of a scam, if their objective is long term energy security and sustainability.
Surprisingly for Moore, the movie looks beyond the popular to explain that whether solar panels or wind turbines: both are built using ‘fossil fuel’ infrastructure.
In the movie, Moore interviews a technician who explains how silicon is mined and then processed in very hot furnaces with coal. And that this is what solar panels are actually made of – silicon and coal!
The qualities of cement and steel consumed in the construction of a single wind turbine are also detailed.
The new Michael Moore movie also shows us electric cars fuelled by a power grid based on 95% coal.
So, is electricity from coal better than oil, and how could we possibly still have any of either of them? Since I was a young girl at the beach, these type of documentaries have explained we are running out of both.
I am also reminded of how the prices of various natural resources has tended down over the past few decades. It was in the early 1980s that Julian Simon famously betted Paul Ehrlich that the price of Cooper, chromium, nickel, tin and tungsten would fall. And they have.
Julian Simon explains why in his book The Ultimate Resource published in 1981. Yet back in the early 1980s, and still today, the conventional wisdom has claimed we would all be undone by resource scarcity. Simon explains that our notions of increasing resource-scarcity ignores the long-term declines in wage-adjusted raw material prices because of innovation.
Another book, ‘The Future and Its Enemies’ written by Virgina Postrel and published in 1999 puts more context around the notion of innovation. Interestingly Postrel explains why government regulation may only be a problem when it limits innovation. Further, Postrel suggests notions of ‘left’ and ‘right’ in politics are some what meaningless. She suggests the more significant battles will be between the values of a type of person she refers to as the ‘dynamists’ versus the ‘statists’. Quoting from an interview some time ago:
In the book, I talk about the sort of core values of dynamists versus stasists. The core values of dynamists are – it’s really about learning. It’s about discovery. The idea is we don’t really know the best way of doing whatever, and that requires a lot of experimentation, trial and error learning, competition, criticism. It’s a messy process, but it’s the process through which we discover better ways of doing things, whether that’s in business, technology, or the way we live our everyday lives. On the stasis side, there’s sort of two competing or two complementary ideas rather. One is the ideal of stability – that the good society is the society that doesn’t change. And the other, which I associate with sort of technocratic stasis, is the idea of control – that someone needs to be in charge to set us on the right path and to decide centrally what that will be.
How might this pandemic show the need for regulation and cohesion, while allowing innovation?
That oil prices are at unprecedented lows must be upsetting established world orders? I hope so. Then again, I’m a dynamist.
It is a fact that there has never been so many people on planet Earth and that we live during a time of great wealth but also great uncertainty. Our times perhaps provide unique opportunities for both Postrel’s dynamists and also the technocratic stasis.
In Australia and around the world, how much have our values changed in just the last two months? And yet we have perhaps more social cohesion, at least here in Australia? And many are looking for new rules of engagement, to provide some certainty.
As long as the rules created by the technocrats are clear, and there is still incentive, there is perhaps potential for great innovation: for us to innovate our way out of this pandemic. It should be possible through trial and error, spontaneous adjustment, and adaptation – even if we can’t travel, or party, or watch sport. In fact, there may be more time for thinking.
It is a fact that we can still innovate for a new and different future, and that the best things in life will still be free, even if the movie-makers keep telling us that we are running out of oil, soon.
In Noosa where I live, the sun is still shining, and it shines for everyone.
My little sister and I enjoying the sunshine in Noosa back in the 1970, when the price of oil was higher and we were about to run out of it.
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wattsupwiththat--2020-04-24--Bill Gates: $43M beachfront estate: Proof he’s a WUWT fan?

The billionaire philanthropists Bill and Melinda Gates have purchased an exquisite beach house outside San Diego—splashing out on $ 43 million for an oceanfront mansion in the coastal town of Del Mar , CA .
The prodigious purchase price makes it one of the largest sales in the area ’ s history .
The luxurious six-bedroom , four-bathroom , 5,800-square-foot home was sold to the Gates family by Madeleine Pickens , a former wife of the billionaire oil baron T. Boone Pickens , according to the Wall Street Journal .
The home originally landed on the market for $ 48 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ t know which is more priceless : • The fact that the mansion was built with oil money .
I ’ m actually somewhat ( but not totally ) inclined to give Mr. Gates a pass on the climate change hypocrisy bit .
His preferred solution is to help poorer nations adapt to it .
And I have to assume that Mr. Gates relied on this brilliant October 2019 WUWT post in making the decision to purchase the Del Mar property .
Ludka , B.C.
, Guza , R.T. , O ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ years of bathymetry and waves at San Diego beaches .
Sci Data 6 , 161 ( 2019 ) .
https : //doi.org/10.1038/s41597-019-0167-6 LINK I didn ’ t actually refer to Ludka et al.
, 2019 in this post… I will have a follow up sciencey post on this subject in a few days , and I wanted to save the link and citation somewhere .
Oh… Just so you don ’ t think I ’ ve gone soft…

Guest “climate hypocrisy?” post by David Middleton
CELEBRITY REAL ESTATE
Bill and Melinda Gates Purchase $43M Luxury Beach House in Del Mar, CA
By Becky Bracken | Apr 23, 2020 The billionaire philanthropists Bill and Melinda Gates have purchased an exquisite beach house outside San Diego—splashing out on $43 million for an oceanfront mansion in the coastal town of Del Mar, CA. The prodigious purchase price makes it one of the largest sales in the area’s history. The luxurious six-bedroom, four-bathroom, 5,800-square-foot home was sold to the Gates family by Madeleine Pickens, a former wife of the billionaire oil baron T. Boone Pickens, according to the Wall Street Journal. The home originally landed on the market for $48 million in January 2019. […] Realtor.com
“How long can you tread water”… H/T Bill Cosby
I don’t know which is more priceless:
Climate change warrior Bill Gates dropping $43 million on a beachfront mansion. The fact that the mansion was built with oil money.
I’m actually somewhat (but not totally) inclined to give Mr. Gates a pass on the climate change hypocrisy bit. His preferred solution is to help poorer nations adapt to it. And I have to assume that Mr. Gates relied on this brilliant October 2019 WUWT post in making the decision to purchase the Del Mar property.
References
Ludka, B.C., Guza, R.T., O’Reilly, W.C. et al. Sixteen years of bathymetry and waves at San Diego beaches. Sci Data 6, 161 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-019-0167-6 LINK
I didn’t actually refer to Ludka et al., 2019 in this post… I will have a follow up sciencey post on this subject in a few days, and I wanted to save the link and citation somewhere.
Oh… Just so you don’t think I’ve gone soft…
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wattsupwiththat--2020-04-26--UK & German Governments Plan to Turn Covid-19 into a Climate Action Opportunity

Even after personally recovering from Covid-19 , UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his government considers climate action such a priority , they are jointly hosting a high level climate summit with Germany to try to divert recovery money into renewable energy .
Environment ministers from 30 countries are meeting in a two-day online conference in a bid to make progress on cutting greenhouse gas emissions .
The gathering is called the “ Petersberg Climate Dialogue ” .
It will focus on how to organise a “ green ” economic recovery after the acute phase of the pandemic is over @ @ @ @ @ @ @ international agreement on ambitious carbon cuts despite the postponement of the key conference COP26 – previously scheduled for Glasgow in November ( now without a date ) .
Alok Sharma , the UK Climate Secretary and president of COP26 , said : “ I am committed to increasing global climate ambition so that we deliver on the Paris Agreement ( to stabilise temperature rise well below 2C ) .
“ The world must work together , as it has to deal with the coronavirus pandemic , to support a green and resilient recovery @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ At the Petersberg Climate Dialogue , we will come together to discuss how we can turn ambition into real action .
”

Guest essay by Eric Worrall
Even after personally recovering from Covid-19, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his government considers climate action such a priority, they are jointly hosting a high level climate summit with Germany to try to divert recovery money into renewable energy.
Coronavirus recovery plan ‘must tackle climate change’
By Roger HarrabinBBC environment analyst
25 April 2020
Environment ministers from 30 countries are meeting in a two-day online conference in a bid to make progress on cutting greenhouse gas emissions.
The gathering is called the “Petersberg Climate Dialogue”.
It will focus on how to organise a “green” economic recovery after the acute phase of the pandemic is over.
The other aim is to forge international agreement on ambitious carbon cuts despite the postponement of the key conference COP26 – previously scheduled for Glasgow in November (now without a date).
Alok Sharma, the UK Climate Secretary and president of COP26, said: “I am committed to increasing global climate ambition so that we deliver on the Paris Agreement (to stabilise temperature rise well below 2C).
“The world must work together, as it has to deal with the coronavirus pandemic, to support a green and resilient recovery, which leaves no one behind.
“At the Petersberg Climate Dialogue, we will come together to discuss how we can turn ambition into real action.”
…


wattsupwiththat--2020-04-25--Low Electricity Demand and System Balancing Problems during The UK’s Coronavirus Lockdown

The restrictions on economic and personal activity imposed to address the spread of the coronavirus are reducing electricity demand in the UK to unusually low levels , increasing the difficulties of operating the system , particularly in the presence of embedded solar and wind generation .
As a result of the restrictions on economic activity and personal movement , designed to reduce the rate of transmission of Covid-19 , there are striking anomalies in the British electricity markets .
The following chart , drawn by the author from BM Reports data , shows daily electrical energy ( MWh ) transmitted @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of a substantial fall in electricity consumption .
Domestic consumption may be rising as a result of the Stay at Home policy , but it is nowhere near offsetting the fall in industrial and commercial consumption .
Figure 1 : Daily electrical energy ( GWh ) transmitted over the British electricity network , from 1st of January to 23rd April 2020 ( red line ) , compared to the historical norm ( grey line ) .
Source : Chart by the author , data from BM Reports .
Of course , that decline @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of what is normal for the time year , and the grey line shows that demand normally begins to fall from January onwards .
The red line shows that this year was no exception , with the decline beginning even in January well before the first warnings about Covid-19 were given .
Furthermore , demand was already low relative to the historical norm for these months , because of unusually warm weather .
Consequently , some part of the decline seen towards the end of the charted is to be expected .
Nevertheless @ @ @ @ @ @ @ into account the abrupt nature of the decline in consumption after the 23rd of March is obvious .
Furthermore , there is a clear loss of the familiar structure in the pattern of demand , a feature which is still more evident in the pattern of instantaneous load ( MW ) on the network by half-hourly settlement period .
Compare the following two charts , the first of which graphs load from the 1st of January to the 24th of February , while the second charts the period from the 1st of March @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2 .
National Demand ( the sum of metered generation excluding generation required to meet station load , hydro storage pumping and interconnector exports ) by half-hourly settlement period from the 1st of January to 24th February ( MW ) .
Source : Chart by the author : National Grid data .
Figure 3 .
National Demand ( the sum of metered generation excluding generation required to meet station load , hydro storage pumping and interconnector exports ) by half-hourly settlement period from the 1st of March to 23rd April ( MW ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ : National Grid data .
Before the lockdown the pattern of load is highly but regularly variable , exhibiting repetitive periodicities on several timescales , all patterns well known to the grid operators .
The second chart shows the regularly and highly differentiated pattern of electricity demand both falling and becoming temporarily more chaotic as it moves towards a new and less differentiated equilibrium at a lower level .
This is not only new and unfamiliar territory for the system operators , but has accelerated the arrival of problems with the large and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the system is probably not quite ready .
National Grid ESO ’ s Summer Outlook for electricity , published on the 15th of April , puts a brave face on the matter , but can not conceal the difficulties .
The ESO ’ s principal concern is a combination of low demand and a high proportion of inflexible or relatively inflexible renewable generation , leading to system balancing problems .
Assuming that demand can not be increased on request , the operator must prevent hazardous increases in voltage , by reducing generation , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ inertia to preserve system stability .
There are already significant reductions in demand , and NG ESO ’ s medium impact scenario envisages these continuing into the summer with a demand reduction of 7 % overnight and 13 % during the day .
The high impact scenario involves reductions of 13 % overnight and 20 % during the day .
In fact , reductions approaching the high impact scenario are already being observed , with National Grid commenting that in April the UK electricity system served low loads not usually seen until the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and August .
To illustrate this point the Summer Outlook provides a graphic comparing actual demand on the 14th of April with the demand that would otherwise have been expected .
Figure 4 : Demand ( MW ) predicted pre-Covid for the 14th April ( yellow line ) , compared with actual demand ( orange line ) .
Source : NG ESO , Summer Outlook ( April 2020 ) , p. 6 .
The largest demand fall in the chart appears to be in the order of 19 % , and generally the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ comments , “ between [ the ] ‘ medium impact ’ and ‘ high impact ’ scenarios ” considered in the Summer Outlook .
One might on that basis suspect that the summer impact scenarios are overly optimistic , but it is probable that National Grid is expecting the lockdown restrictions to be eased , keeping demand suppression within the bounds of its high scenario .
If , on the other hand , the restrictions are maintained or even strengthened then the possibility of demand cuts exceeding 20 % are clearly possible .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ spring and summer demand poses real difficulties for control room operators , since they are now working with a generation fleet that is to a large degree non-dispatchable , 23 GW of wind and 12 GW of solar power for example , and may seek to provide energy to system even when not required .
Table 2 of the Summer Outlook describes a maximum demand of only 25.7 GW in the high impact scenario , and a minimum demand of 15 GW , a minimum that has already been observed in April .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ must retain sufficient conventional , rotating plant to provide stabilising inertia , but also find room if required for the 23 GW of wind and 12 GW of solar power , both uncontrollable .
Of the two , it is the solar fleet that is giving NG ESO the most cause for concern .
About wind , they can afford to be relatively relaxed since , firstly , output tends to be low in the summer months , and , secondly , they have extensive experience of constraining wind off the system through @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of £101 million so far this year ) .
That said , it is highly significant that the Summer Outlook refers to the use of an additional instrument , namely “ direct trade ” ( see p 15 ) to buy wind farms off the system .
Bilateral trades of this kind with wind farms have not been used intensively for quite some time , and their return is a sure sign of emergency measures .
It ’ s a topic to watch .

From The GWPF
Date: 04/25/20
Dr John Constable, GWPF Energy Editor
The restrictions on economic and personal activity imposed to address the spread of the coronavirus are reducing electricity demand in the UK to unusually low levels, increasing the difficulties of operating the system, particularly in the presence of embedded solar and wind generation.
As a result of the restrictions on economic activity and personal movement, designed to reduce the rate of transmission of Covid-19, there are striking anomalies in the British electricity markets. The following chart, drawn by the author from BM Reports data, shows daily electrical energy (MWh) transmitted over the network, and gives evidence of a substantial fall in electricity consumption. Domestic consumption may be rising as a result of the Stay at Home policy, but it is nowhere near offsetting the fall in industrial and commercial consumption.
Figure 1: Daily electrical energy (GWh) transmitted over the British electricity network, from 1st of January to 23rd April 2020 (red line), compared to the historical norm (grey line). Source: Chart by the author, data from BM Reports.
Of course, that decline has to be understood against the background of what is normal for the time year, and the grey line shows that demand normally begins to fall from January onwards. The red line shows that this year was no exception, with the decline beginning even in January well before the first warnings about Covid-19 were given. Furthermore, demand was already low relative to the historical norm for these months, because of unusually warm weather. Consequently, some part of the decline seen towards the end of the charted is to be expected. Nevertheless, even when these factors are taken into account the abrupt nature of the decline in consumption after the 23rd of March is obvious.
Furthermore, there is a clear loss of the familiar structure in the pattern of demand, a feature which is still more evident in the pattern of instantaneous load (MW) on the network by half-hourly settlement period. Compare the following two charts, the first of which graphs load from the 1st of January to the 24th of February, while the second charts the period from the 1st of March to the 23rd of April.
Figure 2. National Demand (the sum of metered generation excluding generation required to meet station load, hydro storage pumping and interconnector exports) by half-hourly settlement period from the 1st of January to 24th February (MW). Source: Chart by the author: National Grid data.
Figure 3. National Demand (the sum of metered generation excluding generation required to meet station load, hydro storage pumping and interconnector exports) by half-hourly settlement period from the 1st of March to 23rd April (MW). Source: Chart by the author: National Grid data.
Before the lockdown the pattern of load is highly but regularly variable, exhibiting repetitive periodicities on several timescales, all patterns well known to the grid operators. The second chart shows the regularly and highly differentiated pattern of electricity demand both falling and becoming temporarily more chaotic as it moves towards a new and less differentiated equilibrium at a lower level. This is not only new and unfamiliar territory for the system operators, but has accelerated the arrival of problems with the large and inflexible renewables fleets, problems for which the system is probably not quite ready.
National Grid ESO’s Summer Outlook for electricity, published on the 15th of April, puts a brave face on the matter, but cannot conceal the difficulties. The ESO’s principal concern is a combination of low demand and a high proportion of inflexible or relatively inflexible renewable generation, leading to system balancing problems. Assuming that demand cannot be increased on request, the operator must prevent hazardous increases in voltage, by reducing generation, while at the same time maintaining sufficient inertia to preserve system stability.
There are already significant reductions in demand, and NG ESO’s medium impact scenario envisages these continuing into the summer with a demand reduction of 7% overnight and 13% during the day. The high impact scenario involves reductions of 13% overnight and 20% during the day. In fact, reductions approaching the high impact scenario are already being observed, with National Grid commenting that in April the UK electricity system served low loads not usually seen until the much warmer, holiday months of July and August. To illustrate this point the Summer Outlook provides a graphic comparing actual demand on the 14th of April with the demand that would otherwise have been expected.
Figure 4: Demand (MW) predicted pre-Covid for the 14th April (yellow line), compared with actual demand (orange line). Source: NG ESO, Summer Outlook (April 2020), p. 6.
The largest demand fall in the chart appears to be in the order of 19%, and generally the currently observed reduction is, as NG comments, “between [the]‘medium impact’ and ‘high impact’ scenarios” considered in the Summer Outlook.
One might on that basis suspect that the summer impact scenarios are overly optimistic, but it is probable that National Grid is expecting the lockdown restrictions to be eased, keeping demand suppression within the bounds of its high scenario. If, on the other hand, the restrictions are maintained or even strengthened then the possibility of demand cuts exceeding 20% are clearly possible.
A reduction of approaching 20% on spring and summer demand poses real difficulties for control room operators, since they are now working with a generation fleet that is to a large degree non-dispatchable, 23 GW of wind and 12 GW of solar power for example, and may seek to provide energy to system even when not required. Table 2 of the Summer Outlook describes a maximum demand of only 25.7 GW in the high impact scenario, and a minimum demand of 15 GW, a minimum that has already been observed in April. In between these limits, the operator must retain sufficient conventional, rotating plant to provide stabilising inertia, but also find room if required for the 23 GW of wind and 12 GW of solar power, both uncontrollable.
Of the two, it is the solar fleet that is giving NG ESO the most cause for concern. About wind, they can afford to be relatively relaxed since, firstly, output tends to be low in the summer months, and, secondly, they have extensive experience of constraining wind off the system through the Balancing Mechanism (at a cost of £101 million so far this year). That said, it is highly significant that the Summer Outlook refers to the use of an additional instrument, namely “direct trade” (see p 15) to buy wind farms off the system. Bilateral trades of this kind with wind farms have not been used intensively for quite some time, and their return is a sure sign of emergency measures. It’s a topic to watch.
Full article here.
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wattsupwiththat--2020-04-25--Oil Price Collapse –> Next Peak Oil Frenzy?

Guest “ oil ’ s well that ends well ” by David Middleton The ChiCom-19 hostage crisis certainly makes strange bedfellows .
Over the past few weeks I have been agreeing with Dallas County Commissioner John Wiley Price on the need to end the hostage crisis now .
In the 35 years , Mr. Price has served as a county commissioner , I don ’ t think I ’ ve ever agreed with him before .
Matt Egan , lead writer for CNN Business , actually wrote an article about the oil industry that made sense .
His work is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ t even have ridicule value… But , like a “ blind squirrel occasionally getting the nut ” … How negative oil prices could set the stage for the next price boom New York ( CNN Business ) The boom-to-bust oil market is experiencing one of its darkest moments in history.Oil demand is collapsing because of the coronavirus crisis .
Supply is shrinking — but not nearly fast enough .
The world is literally running out of room to store unneeded barrels of oil piling up during the coronavirus pandemic .
That storage @ @ @ @ @ @ @ oil prices to turn negative this week for the first time ever .
The crash is forcing a reckoning in the oil industry — a painful one .
Many shale oil producers have canceled drilling plans .
Others have been forced to shut down active wells .
Some frackers won ’ t survive at all .
But the violent rebalancing in the oil market might be so overdone that it will set the stage for a spike in prices .
When and if demand recovers , there might not be enough supply to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ an epic bust .
As hard as it may be to believe , the next step is a boom , ” said Pavel Molchanov , energy analyst at Raymond James .
“ When demand returns to something close to normal levels , it ’ s quite possible there will be a shortage situation in 2021 , ” Molchanov said .
“ With ultimately a finite amount of storage left to fill , production will soon need to fall sizably to bring the market into balance , ” Goldman ’ s Courvalin wrote , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ prices once demand gradually recovers.
” “ This inflection will play out in a matter of weeks , not months , with the market likely forced into balance before June , ” Courvalin wrote .
Companies are cutting production in two ways .
First , they are slashing their spending plans for drilling new and uncompleted wells .
For instance , ExxonMobil ( XOM ) cut its 2020 spending by 30 % , including a large focus on the Permian Basin shale oilfield in West Texas .
Secondly , and most importantly , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on active wells through a painful process known as “ shut-ins.
” And there is no guarantee those taps can or will get turned back on at full capacity .
“ It will take time and money to turn it back on .
It ’ s not like a light switch , ” David Trainer , CEO of New Constructs , an investment research firm based in Nashville .
“ When demand comes back online , there won ’ t be as many people there to make the oil , ” said Trainer @

Guest “oil’s well that ends well” by David Middleton
The ChiCom-19 hostage crisis certainly makes strange bedfellows. Over the past few weeks I have been agreeing with Dallas County Commissioner John Wiley Price on the need to end the hostage crisis now. In the 35 years, Mr. Price has served as a county commissioner, I don’t think I’ve ever agreed with him before. Matt Egan, lead writer for CNN Business, actually wrote an article about the oil industry that made sense. His work is usually so awful, that it doesn’t even have ridicule value… But, like a “blind squirrel occasionally getting the nut”…
How negative oil prices could set the stage for the next price boom By Matt Egan, CNN Business Updated 10:41 AM ET, Thu April 23, 2020 New York (CNN Business)The boom-to-bust oil market is experiencing one of its darkest moments in history.Oil demand is collapsing because of the coronavirus crisis. Supply is shrinking — but not nearly fast enough. The world is literally running out of room to store unneeded barrels of oil piling up during the coronavirus pandemic. That storage problem is so dire that it caused oil prices to turn negative this week for the first time ever. The crash is forcing a reckoning in the oil industry — a painful one. Many shale oil producers have canceled drilling plans. Others have been forced to shut down active wells. Some frackers won’t survive at all. But the violent rebalancing in the oil market might be so overdone that it will set the stage for a spike in prices. When and if demand recovers, there might not be enough supply to meet it. […] “We are in an epic bust. As hard as it may be to believe, the next step is a boom,” said Pavel Molchanov, energy analyst at Raymond James. […] “When demand returns to something close to normal levels, it’s quite possible there will be a shortage situation in 2021,” Molchanov said. […] “With ultimately a finite amount of storage left to fill, production will soon need to fall sizably to bring the market into balance,” Goldman’s Courvalin wrote, “finally setting the stage for higher prices once demand gradually recovers.” […] “This inflection will play out in a matter of weeks, not months, with the market likely forced into balance before June,” Courvalin wrote. Companies are cutting production in two ways. First, they are slashing their spending plans for drilling new and uncompleted wells. For instance, ExxonMobil (XOM) cut its 2020 spending by 30%, including a large focus on the Permian Basin shale oilfield in West Texas. Secondly, and most importantly, oil companies are turning the taps off on active wells through a painful process known as “shut-ins.” And there is no guarantee those taps can or will get turned back on at full capacity. “It will take time and money to turn it back on. It’s not like a light switch,” David Trainer, CEO of New Constructs, an investment research firm based in Nashville. […] “When demand comes back online, there won’t be as many people there to make the oil,” said Trainer. […] CNN Business
While we don’t technically “make the oil,” if and when demand recovers, the longer the downturn, the longer it will take to bring production back up. When supply growth lags behind demand growth, prices quickly rise.
Unless the Fire Marshal Gumps of the world intend on perpetuating the ChiCom-19 forever, oil demand will recover and the supply might not be readily available. The Peak Oilers, who haven’t read Hubbert and don’t even know what “peak oil” is, will likely start babbling about falling off a Seneca Cliff into Olduvai Gorge. They’ll be just as wrong as they were the last time demand exceeded supply and prices skyorocketed. So, the world faces two possible paths
And… there’s another silver lining to this very dark cloud:
The possibility that this may lead to increased emissions Historically, low oil prices have created headaches for climate advocates. Cheap oil means cheaper gas at the pump, leading people to drive more and spend more on emissions-intensive consumer goods. Today, with much of the world locked down, consumers aren’t consuming all that much or making big choices that drive up emissions, but businesses are still making those decisions, and low oil prices reduce the incentive to change. A delivery company purchasing a new van fleet would be less inclined to go electric, for example. A consumer food company considering switching its packaging away from oil-based plastic product may wait it out a few more years. “Oil is cheap. It’s very hard to transition away from oil when it’s very cheap,” says Lorne Stockman, senior research analyst at Oil Change International, which advocates for a transition away from fossil fuels. “And it’s particularly difficult when we don’t have a coherent policy on climate change.” A key concern for many climate advocates is the possibility that natural gas—which in the U.S. is often produced alongside oil and remains cheap for many of the same reasons that oil does—will further solidify its position in the mix of electricity sources. Low natural gas prices may entice utilities and policymakers to continue to rely on the fossil fuel rather than looking to renewable alternatives, and, because of the long lifespan of natural gas infrastructure, that would lock in decades of emissions. Time Magazine
So it basically boils down to: The Fire Marshal Gumps of the world need a permanent ChiCom-19 hostage crisis in order to prevent the weather from changing… Sort of like if Stanley Kubrick directed a movie based on a George Orwell novel.
Day Forty-something of America Held Hostage by ChiCom-19
Local news, as of noon Friday…
4/25/2020 Dallas County CHICOM-19 Population Cases Deaths 2,637,772 2,834 77 2.7% % of population with 0.11% 0.00% % with, rounded 0.1% 0.00% % without 99.89% 100.00% % without, rounded 99.9% 100.0% Menodoza Line (.200) 2/27/2035 0.200
ChiCom-19?
In my never ending effort to eliminate political correctness, I refer to all things coronavirus as ChiCom-19.
Fire Marshal Gump?
County Judge Clay Jenkins is the chief executive of Dallas County and presides over the County Commissioners Court. He looks like the Jim Carrey character, Fire Marshal Bill from In Living Color and he talks like Forrest Gump. Gump appears to be hell-bent on perpetuating the ChiCom-19 hostage crisis forever.
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