wattsupwiththat--2020-12-10--Bombshell finding: Automobile tires, not climate change – is killing west coast salmon

From the “ where the rubber meets the road ” department , comes this bombshell finding that flies in the face of claims about the universal boogeyman of “ climate change ” killing salmon due to it supposedly raising water temperature in streams where they spawn .
Just last year , PBS and Popular Science were screaming about “ climate change ” being the cause with headlines likeClimate Change is Killing Salmon in the Pacific Northwest and Climate change is cooking salmon in the Pacific Northwest It seems they were wrong , dead wrong .
New University of Washington research @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , exonerates “ climate change ” in the salmon killing caper and finds a surprise villain ; an additive to automobile tires , not “ climate change.
” In fact , the researchers specifically ruled out climate-driven temperature increase as a cause .
Basically , the process is like this : stormwater runoff carries tire wear rubber particles into streams from the nearby roads , where a chemical called 6PPD-quinone , a biproduct from the 6PPD preservative added on tires to prevent breakdown by ozone , leeches into the water .
It has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ toxic to salmon .
Researchers say they identified 6PPD-quinone as the “ smoking gun ” behind salmon deaths in freshwater streams .
Here are some relevant quotes from the University of Washington press release , Tire-related chemical is largely responsible for adult coho salmon deaths in urban streams , bold mine : “ We had determined it couldn ’ t be explained by high temperatures , low dissolved oxygen or any known contaminant , such as high zinc levels , ” said co-senior author Jenifer McIntyre , an assistant professor at WSU ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in Puyallup .
“ Then we found that urban stormwater runoff could recreate the symptoms and the acute mortality .
“ [ We ] …found something called 6PPD , which is used to keep tires from breaking down too quickly .
“ It ’ s like a preservative for tires , ” Tian said .
“ Similar to how food preservatives keep food from spoiling too quickly , 6PPD helps tires last by protecting them from ground-level ozone.
” “ But when 6PPD reacts with ozone , the researchers found that it was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ( pronounced “ kwih-known ” ) , the toxic chemical that is responsible for killing the salmon .
This chemical is not limited to the Puget Sound region .
The team also tested roadway runoff from Los Angeles and urban creeks near San Francisco , and 6PPD-quinone was present there as well .
This finding is unsurprising , the researchers said , because 6PPD appears to be used in all tires and tire wear particles are likely present in creeks near busy roads across the world.
” The findings suggest this is a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ focused only on salmon , who knows where else in nature this chemical might be causing trouble .
Historically , climate activists like to use “ climate change ” as an immediate go-to cause for anything that they can ’ t explain , which is why I refer to it as the “ universal boogeyman ” .
Now that real science without a climate change agenda has been published on the salmon issue , we can move from a baseless blame-game to a solution .

From the “where the rubber meets the road” department, comes this bombshell finding that flies in the face of claims about the universal boogeyman of “climate change” killing salmon due to it supposedly raising water temperature in streams where they spawn.
Just last year, PBS and Popular Science were screaming about “climate change” being the cause with headlines likeClimate Change is Killing Salmon in the Pacific Northwest and Climate change is cooking salmon in the Pacific Northwest
It seems they were wrong, dead wrong.
New University of Washington research published December 3rd in the journal Science, exonerates “climate change” in the salmon killing caper and finds a surprise villain; an additive to automobile tires, not “climate change.” In fact, the researchers specifically ruled out climate-driven temperature increase as a cause.
Basically, the process is like this: stormwater runoff carries tire wear rubber particles into streams from the nearby roads, where a chemical called 6PPD-quinone, a biproduct from the 6PPD preservative added on tires to prevent breakdown by ozone, leeches into the water. It has been determined that this chemical is highly toxic to salmon. Researchers say they identified 6PPD-quinone as the “smoking gun” behind salmon deaths in freshwater streams.
Here are some relevant quotes from the University of Washington press release, Tire-related chemical is largely responsible for adult coho salmon deaths in urban streams, bold mine:
“We had determined it couldn’t be explained by high temperatures, low dissolved oxygen or any known contaminant, such as high zinc levels,” said co-senior author Jenifer McIntyre, an assistant professor at WSU’s School of the Environment, based in Puyallup. “Then we found that urban stormwater runoff could recreate the symptoms and the acute mortality.
“[We]…found something called 6PPD, which is used to keep tires from breaking down too quickly.
“It’s like a preservative for tires,” Tian said. “Similar to how food preservatives keep food from spoiling too quickly, 6PPD helps tires last by protecting them from ground-level ozone.” “But when 6PPD reacts with ozone, the researchers found that it was transformed into multiple chemicals, including 6PPD-quinone (pronounced “kwih-known”), the toxic chemical that is responsible for killing the salmon.
This chemical is not limited to the Puget Sound region. The team also tested roadway runoff from Los Angeles and urban creeks near San Francisco, and 6PPD-quinone was present there as well. This finding is unsurprising, the researchers said, because 6PPD appears to be used in all tires and tire wear particles are likely present in creeks near busy roads across the world.”
Figure 4 from the research paper, Environmental relevance of 6PPD-quinone
The findings suggest this is a worldwide problem, and since this research focused only on salmon, who knows where else in nature this chemical might be causing trouble.
Historically, climate activists like to use “climate change” as an immediate go-to cause for anything that they can’t explain, which is why I refer to it as the “universal boogeyman”. Now that real science without a climate change agenda has been published on the salmon issue, we can move from a baseless blame-game to a solution.
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wattsupwiththat--2020-12-11--How Busy Was the 2020 Hurricane Season?

How Busy Was the 2020 Hurricane Season?

How Busy Was the 2020 Hurricane Season ?
The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season , with 30 named storms , is going down in the record books as having the most named storms of any season on record .
But are we comparing apples and apples—or apples and oranges ?
Some people blame the recent increase in named storms—tropical storms and hurricanes—on global warming , and infer that we must stop spewing CO2 into the atmosphere to curb the warming and so prevent the increase in storms and the damage they cause .
But the raw data for hurricane history is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in our understanding , and in the philosophy of whether a storm should be named .
What explains the increase in named storms ?
Was it an abnormal meteorological event , or are there other explanations ?
To answer this requires some discussion of the origin of Atlantic storms .
One of the requirements for a tropical storm is a pre-existing weather disturbance that is producing thunderstorms .
In the Atlantic during the summer , there are four categories of pre-existing weather disturbances .
Two have their origin in the deep tropics , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The most common tropical disturbances are African systems .
Every 3 to 5 days , a new disturbance emerges from Africa .
Trade winds carry these westward across the Atlantic Ocean , the Caribbean , and sometimes all the way to the Pacific .
Every summer we track around 50 , and about 10 % develop into named storms .
A second category of tropical disturbances is found along the Intertropical Convergence zone ( ITC ) —a boundary where winds from the northern hemisphere clash with winds from the southern hemisphere .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the deep tropics is very straightforward .
They generate thunderstorms that heat the atmosphere , and as the hot air rises it is replaced by air spiraling at the surface , producing a tropical storm .
We can call this “ tropical energy.
” The development process for pre-existing weather disturbances that originate in the subtropical latitudes ( Central and North Atlantic ) is far more complex .
In this case the initial energy driving the disturbance is baroclinic—a term denoting winds that are generated when cold air moves under warm air .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ type of energy .
Over the Atlantic during the summer , two types of baroclinic systems operate to produce tropical storms .
One occurs mainly during the spring and fall , when a low-pressure system develops along a dissipating cold front that has moved offshore from the U.S. mainland and stalls .
A second type occurs in the upper part of the atmosphere ( 25,000 ft. and higher ) .
Occasionally , one of these “ upper lows ” strengthens and spins downward to the surface and may generate a named storm .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ storms , and the process by which they do so is complicated .
Consider the following scenario .
In late May a cold front moves off the mid-Atlantic coast and stalls .
A disturbance develops along the front and strengthens .
Winds reach 45 mph .
The initial energy is all baroclinic .
However , thunderstorms generated by the disturbance warm the atmosphere , and now the system is being driven by both baroclinic and tropical energy .
Should the system be named a “ tropical storm ” ?
Not unless the tropical @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Occasionally this does occur , and the system morphs into a tropical storm .
Once they decide to name the storm , forecasters face another problem .
As the storm moves toward the north Atlantic , thunderstorms decrease because of colder water , and cold air is drawn into the circulation .
The winds have not decreased , but baroclinic energy again dominates , and the system is unnamed as it transforms into a post-tropical remnant storm .
To Name or Not to Name ?
That Is the Question The decision to name @ @ @ @ @ @ @ very subjective , since we do not have an objective way to measure the contribution of each energy source .
That is why forecasters in the past have been reluctant to name baroclinic-initiated storms .
Forecasters were faced with this decision four times in 2020 , and each time they chose to name the system : Dolly , Edward , Kyle , and Omar .
All four started out as baroclinic disturbances along dissipating cold fronts and then morphed into tropical storms under the influence of heat from thunderstorms .
But following a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 24 to 36 hours , re-examination revealed that baroclinic energy once again dominated , and they were reclassified as post-tropical remnant lows ( winter-type storms ) .
This year we even named a baroclinic storm approaching Europe—Alpha was named a few hours before making landfall in Portugal .
Would these storms have received a name 30 or 40 years ago ?
Probably not , and data show this to be true .
The historical record of baroclinic-initiated tropical storms in the subtropical Atlantic north of latitude 25N for the past 75 years also @ @ @ @ @ @ @ storms of this type .
If we divide the 75 years into three 25-year periods , the first ( 1946–1970 ) is pre-satellite .
Satellite pictures did not become available to operational forecasters until the late 1960s .
This left us unable to observe storms in vast stretches of the Atlantic .
During this time , under one storm per year ( 0.7/yr . )
could be traced back to a baroclinic origin .
Satellite pictures were available during the second 25-year period ( 1971–1995 ) , allowing us , for the first @ @ @ @ @ @ @ vast stretches , which explains why there was a slight increase in the number of baroclinic systems , to 1.7 per year .
A big surprise occurred in the years 1996–2020 , when there was an unexpected jump to 4 per year .
A big part of the increase took place during the last decade , when the number increased to 5 per year .
Another study confirms this trend .
During the 1970s and 1980s , over 50 % of all named storms in the Atlantic were initiated by African systems .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ on the ITC .
It is not surprising to find that almost 70 % of all named storms in the Atlantic trace their origin to weather disturbances whose origin was in the deep tropics .
Fewer than 30 % of Atlantic named storms originated as baroclinic systems ( ~15 % by stalled cold fronts , and ~15 % by upper–level lows ) .
Similar statistics for the last decade ( 2011–2020 ) show a significant increase in the number of baroclinic systems being named .
Currently , 45 % of named storms are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ other 55 % come from tropical disturbances .
The numbers for 2020 confirm the trend to name baroclinic disturbances .
Thirteen of the 30 storms had a baroclinic origin , and 10 of those occurred in the subtropical Atlantic .
The number of named storms generated by tropical disturbances has not decreased , but there has been a significant increase in the number of named storms generated by baroclinic disturbances .
Has there been a change in the philosophy of naming baroclinic-driven , winter-like storms that occur in the summer ?
If so @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of Atlantic hurricanes , making more the numbers for the last 25 years not directly comparable with the numbers for the previous 50 ?
Without question satellites account for some of the increase in the number of detected and named tropical storms .
One recent study examined the number of tropical storms that formed over the eastern Atlantic and never moved westward beyond longitude 50W .
In pre-satellite years ( 1918–1968 ) , we tracked an average of 1 storm every 2 years .
During the satellite period ( 1969–2019 ) , we @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to 6-fold increase .
This year 4 storms—Rene , Vicky , Wilfred , and Theta—fall into this category .
Another factor accounting for the increase in named storms was a subtle change in the requirements for naming a storm .
Airplanes are used to determine the strength of a storm .
They measure the winds at flight level and drop an instrument in the eye to determine the central pressure .
Since there is a direct relationship between wind and pressure , if you know one you can determine the other .
When @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not uncommon for the plane to encounter an area of strong winds associated with a band of thunderstorms .
Should the system be named ?
What does the pressure show ?
If the pressure is not low enough to justify the winds , in the past the system was not named until the pressure responded .
Not so today .
The current philosophy is to use the observed winds to name a storm regardless of the pressure .
The result is a few more named storms , and an increasing number of storms @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 24 to 36 hours .
This year Bertha was named based on wind alone an hour and a half before making landfall in South Carolina .
Could this emphasis on winds be the reason why there are more baroclinic-generated named storms in the North Atlantic ?
Another unique feature of the 2020 hurricane season was that 3 hurricanes hit Louisiana .
Some media reported that that had never happened before .
But Florida was hit by four hurricanes in 2005 .
And the most active hurricane season as far as landfalls was 1886 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ coast .
Three were in northwest Florida and four in Texas , and two of those in Texas were major ( Category 3 or higher ) .
The last major hurricane to hit Texas in October struck in 1886 and destroyed what was left of Indianola , a once thriving seaport of the south shore of Matagorda Bay .
Maybe 2020 Wasn ’ t So Strange After All In conclusion , the hurricane season in 2020 was very active , but was it record breaking ?
Prior to the 29 named storms recorded @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 1933 held the record for the most in any one year with 21 .
It is revealing to take a close look at the 1933 hurricane season .
The deep tropics were on fire .
Of the 21 storms , 17 were initiated by numerous African systems along with a few ITC disturbances .
Only one baroclinic disturbance developed in the Gulf , and another three in the southwest Caribbean .
No storms were tracked that developed from baroclinic disturbances in the subtropical Atlantic , and none were recorded in the Eastern Atlantic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ these two areas in 1933 ?
We do not know , because tools necessary to track storms in the eastern and northern Atlantic didn ’ t exist yet .
What we do know is that in 2020 , with satellites and recon planes , 10 baroclinic storms developed in the subtropical Atlantic , of which 2 were east of 50W longitude .
These 2 , combined with 3 other African systems that weakened , make 5 in the Eastern Atlantic .
A fair comparison of the 1933 hurricane season with 2020 would be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2020 by around 10 .
If we do that , 1933 is still one of the most active hurricane summers in modern times .
With all of the uncertainties in the raw data , the only credible indicator of any trend in Atlantic hurricane activity is to look at the major hurricanes ( Categories 3–5 ) making landfall in mainland USA .
A tropical storm or even a weak hurricane might have hit a sparsely populated region in the 1800s or the early 1900s and gone undetected .
In contrast , all major @ @ @ @ @ @ @ mph crossing the U.S. coastline in the last 175 years have probably been recorded .
Contrary to the claim that global warming is causing more named storms , over the past several decades the number of major hurricanes hitting the U.S. coastline has fallen .
There were none for twelve years ( 2005–2017 ) .
This was the longest period on record without a major hurricane .
On average , one major hurricane crosses the U.S. border every two years .
In contrast to mainstream media claims , there has been no increase @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
As a matter of fact , world-wide there has been a 5–10 % decrease in hurricane-type storms in the last 50 years .
Neil L. Frank , Ph.D. , is the longest-serving Director of the National Hurricane Center ( 1974–1987 ) and served as Chief Meteorologist of KHOU-TV Houston , TX ( 1987–2008 ) .
He continues tracking and studying tropical storms in his retirement .
He is a Fellow of The Cornwall Alliance for the Stewardship of Creation .

How Busy Was the 2020 Hurricane Season?
by Neil L. Frank
The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season, with 30 named storms, is going down in the record books as having the most named storms of any season on record. But are we comparing apples and apples—or apples and oranges?
Some people blame the recent increase in named storms—tropical storms and hurricanes—on global warming, and infer that we must stop spewing CO2 into the atmosphere to curb the warming and so prevent the increase in storms and the damage they cause.
But the raw data for hurricane history is contaminated by changes in observing tools, in our understanding, and in the philosophy of whether a storm should be named. What explains the increase in named storms? Was it an abnormal meteorological event, or are there other explanations? To answer this requires some discussion of the origin of Atlantic storms.
How Do Atlantic Storms Begin?
One of the requirements for a tropical storm is a pre-existing weather disturbance that is producing thunderstorms. In the Atlantic during the summer, there are four categories of pre-existing weather disturbances. Two have their origin in the deep tropics, and two mainly in subtropical latitudes.
The most common tropical disturbances are African systems. Every 3 to 5 days, a new disturbance emerges from Africa. Trade winds carry these westward across the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean, and sometimes all the way to the Pacific. Every summer we track around 50, and about 10% develop into named storms.
A second category of tropical disturbances is found along the Intertropical Convergence zone (ITC)—a boundary where winds from the northern hemisphere clash with winds from the southern hemisphere.
The developmental process for weather disturbances found in the deep tropics is very straightforward. They generate thunderstorms that heat the atmosphere, and as the hot air rises it is replaced by air spiraling at the surface, producing a tropical storm. We can call this “tropical energy.”
The development process for pre-existing weather disturbances that originate in the subtropical latitudes (Central and North Atlantic) is far more complex. In this case the initial energy driving the disturbance is baroclinic—a term denoting winds that are generated when cold air moves under warm air. All winter storms are driven by this type of energy.
Over the Atlantic during the summer, two types of baroclinic systems operate to produce tropical storms. One occurs mainly during the spring and fall, when a low-pressure system develops along a dissipating cold front that has moved offshore from the U.S. mainland and stalls.
A second type occurs in the upper part of the atmosphere (25,000 ft. and higher). Occasionally, one of these “upper lows” strengthens and spins downward to the surface and may generate a named storm.
Some baroclinic disturbances can convert into tropical storms, and the process by which they do so is complicated. Consider the following scenario. In late May a cold front moves off the mid-Atlantic coast and stalls. A disturbance develops along the front and strengthens. Winds reach 45 mph. The initial energy is all baroclinic. However, thunderstorms generated by the disturbance warm the atmosphere, and now the system is being driven by both baroclinic and tropical energy.
Should the system be named a “tropical storm”? Not unless the tropical energy completely dominates the baroclinic energy. Occasionally this does occur, and the system morphs into a tropical storm.
Once they decide to name the storm, forecasters face another problem. As the storm moves toward the north Atlantic, thunderstorms decrease because of colder water, and cold air is drawn
into the circulation. The winds have not decreased, but baroclinic energy again dominates, and the system is unnamed as it transforms into a post-tropical remnant storm.
To Name or Not to Name? That Is the Question
The decision to name or unname this type of systems is very subjective, since we do not have an objective way to measure the contribution of each energy source. That is why forecasters in the past have been reluctant to name baroclinic-initiated storms.
Forecasters were faced with this decision four times in 2020, and each time they chose to name the system: Dolly, Edward, Kyle, and Omar. All four started out as baroclinic disturbances along dissipating cold fronts and then morphed into tropical storms under the influence of heat from thunderstorms. But following a very short tropical life of less than 24 to 36 hours, re-examination revealed that baroclinic energy once again dominated, and they were reclassified as post-tropical remnant lows (winter-type storms). This year we even named a baroclinic storm approaching Europe—Alpha was named a few hours before making landfall in Portugal.
Would these storms have received a name 30 or 40 years ago? Probably not, and data show this to be true.
The historical record of baroclinic-initiated tropical storms in the subtropical Atlantic north of latitude 25N for the past 75 years also reveals a recent trend to name more storms of this type. If we divide the 75 years into three 25-year periods, the first (1946–1970) is pre-satellite. Satellite pictures did not become available to operational forecasters until the late 1960s. This left us unable to observe storms in vast stretches of the Atlantic. During this time, under one storm per year (0.7/yr.) could be traced back to a baroclinic origin.
Satellite pictures were available during the second 25-year period (1971–1995), allowing us, for the first time, to detect storms in those vast stretches, which explains why there was a slight increase in the number of baroclinic systems, to 1.7 per year.
A big surprise occurred in the years 1996–2020, when there was an unexpected jump to 4 per year. A big part of the increase took place during the last decade, when the number increased to 5 per year.
Another study confirms this trend. During the 1970s and 1980s, over 50% of all named storms in the Atlantic were initiated by African systems. Another 10–15% were generated by disturbances on the ITC. It is not surprising to find that almost 70% of all named storms in the Atlantic trace their origin to weather disturbances whose origin was in the deep tropics. Fewer than 30% of Atlantic named storms originated as baroclinic systems (~15% by stalled cold fronts, and ~15% by upper–level lows).
Similar statistics for the last decade (2011–2020) show a significant increase in the number of baroclinic systems being named. Currently, 45% of named storms are caused by baroclinic systems, while the other 55% come from tropical disturbances.
The numbers for 2020 confirm the trend to name baroclinic disturbances. Thirteen of the 30 storms had a baroclinic origin, and 10 of those occurred in the subtropical Atlantic.
The number of named storms generated by tropical disturbances has not decreased, but there has been a significant increase in the number of named storms generated by baroclinic disturbances. Has there been a change in the philosophy of naming baroclinic-driven, winter-like storms that occur in the summer? If so, does this contaminate the historical record of Atlantic hurricanes, making more the numbers for the last 25 years not directly comparable with the numbers for the previous 50?
Without question satellites account for some of the increase in the number of detected and named tropical storms. One recent study examined the number of tropical storms that formed over the eastern Atlantic and never moved westward beyond longitude 50W. In pre-satellite years (1918–1968), we tracked an average of 1 storm every 2 years. During the satellite period (1969–2019), we tracked 2 to 3 per year—a 4- to 6-fold increase. This year 4 storms—Rene, Vicky, Wilfred, and Theta—fall into this category.
Another factor accounting for the increase in named storms was a subtle change in the requirements for naming a storm. Airplanes are used to determine the strength of a storm. They measure the winds at flight level and drop an instrument in the eye to determine the central pressure. Since there is a direct relationship between wind and pressure, if you know one you can determine the other.
When investigating a weather disturbance, it is not uncommon for the plane to encounter an area of strong winds associated with a band of thunderstorms. Should the system be named? What does the pressure show? If the pressure is not low enough to justify the winds, in the past the system was not named until the pressure responded. Not so today. The current philosophy is to use the observed winds to name a storm regardless of the pressure. The result is a few more named storms, and an increasing number of storms that have a lifetime of less than 24 to 36 hours. This year Bertha was named based on wind alone an hour and a half before making landfall in South Carolina. Could this emphasis on winds be the reason why there are more baroclinic-generated named storms in the North Atlantic?
Another unique feature of the 2020 hurricane season was that 3 hurricanes hit Louisiana. Some media reported that that had never happened before. But Florida was hit by four hurricanes in 2005. And the most active hurricane season as far as landfalls was 1886, when seven hurricanes hit the Gulf coast. Three were in northwest Florida and four in Texas, and two of those in Texas were major (Category 3 or higher). The last major hurricane to hit Texas in October struck in 1886 and destroyed what was left of Indianola, a once thriving seaport of the south shore of Matagorda Bay.
Maybe 2020 Wasn’t So Strange After All
In conclusion, the hurricane season in 2020 was very active, but was it record breaking?
Prior to the 29 named storms recorded in 2005 and 30 in 2020, 1933 held the record for the most in any one year with 21. It is revealing to take a close look at the 1933 hurricane season.
The deep tropics were on fire. Of the 21 storms, 17 were initiated by numerous African systems along with a few ITC disturbances. Only one baroclinic disturbance developed in the Gulf, and another three in the southwest Caribbean. No storms were tracked that developed from baroclinic disturbances in the subtropical Atlantic, and none were recorded in the Eastern Atlantic. Were there were no storms in these two areas in 1933? We do not know, because tools necessary to track storms in the eastern and northern Atlantic didn’t exist yet.
What we do know is that in 2020, with satellites and recon planes, 10 baroclinic storms developed in the subtropical Atlantic, of which 2 were east of 50W longitude. These 2, combined with 3 other African systems that weakened, make 5 in the Eastern Atlantic. A fair comparison of the 1933 hurricane season with 2020 would be to reduce the number of storms in 2020 by around 10. If we do that, 1933 is still one of the most active hurricane summers in modern times.
With all of the uncertainties in the raw data, the only credible indicator of any trend in Atlantic hurricane activity is to look at the major hurricanes (Categories 3–5) making landfall in mainland USA. A tropical storm or even a weak hurricane might have hit a sparsely populated region in the 1800s or the early 1900s and gone undetected. In contrast, all major hurricanes with winds in excess of 110 mph crossing the U.S. coastline in the last 175 years have probably been recorded.
Contrary to the claim that global warming is causing more named storms, over the past several decades the number of major hurricanes hitting the U.S. coastline has fallen. There were none for twelve years (2005–2017). This was the longest period on record without a major hurricane. On average, one major hurricane crosses the U.S. border every two years.
In contrast to mainstream media claims, there has been no increase in Atlantic hurricane activity in recent decades. As a matter of fact, world-wide there has been a 5–10% decrease in hurricane-type storms in the last 50 years.
Neil L. Frank, Ph.D., is the longest-serving Director of the National Hurricane Center (1974–1987) and served as Chief Meteorologist of KHOU-TV Houston, TX (1987–2008). He continues tracking and studying tropical storms in his retirement. He is a Fellow of The Cornwall Alliance for the Stewardship of Creation.
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wattsupwiththat--2020-12-12--500 Years of Global SST Variations from a 1D Forcing-Feedback Model

As part of a DOE contract John Christy and I have , we are using satellite data to examine climate model behavior .
One of the problems I ’ ve been interested in is the effect of El Nino and La Nina ( ENSO ) on our understanding of human-caused climate change .
A variety of ENSO records show multi-decadal variations in this activity , and it has even showed up in multi-millennial runs of a GFDL climate model .
Since El Nino produces global average warmth , and La Nina produces global average coolness , I have been using @ @ @ @ @ @ @ temperatures ( published by Spencer & Braswell , 2014 ) to examine how the historical record of ENSO variations can be included , by using the CERES satellite-observed co-variations of top-of-atmosphere ( TOA ) radiative flux with ENSO .
I ’ ve updated that model to match the 20 years of CERES data ( March 2000-March 2020 ) .
I have also extended the ENSO record back to 1525 with the Braganza et al .
( 2009 ) multi-proxy ENSO reconstruction data .
I intercalibrated it with the Multivariate ENSO Index ( MEI @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and further extended into mid-2021 based upon the latest NOAA ENSO forecast .
The Cheng et al .
temperature data reconstruction for the 0-2000m layer is also used to calibrate the model adjustable coefficients .
I had been working on an extensive blog post with all of the details of how the model works and how ENSO is represented in it , which was far too detailed .
So , I am instead going to just show you some results , after a brief model description .
The model assumes an initial state @ @ @ @ @ @ @ temperature response to changes in radiative equilibrium of the global ocean-atmosphere system using the CMIP5 global radiative forcings ( since 1765 ) , along with our calculations of ENSO-related forcings .
The model time step is 1 month .
The model has a mixed layer of adjustable depth ( 50 m gave optimum model behavior compared to observations ) , a second layer extending to 2,000m depth , and a third layer extending to the global-average ocean bottom depth of 3,688 m. Energy is transferred between ocean layers proportional to their difference in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ) .
The proportionality constant ( s ) have the same units as climate feedback parameters ( W m-2 K-1 ) , and are analogous to the heat transfer coefficient .
A transfer coefficient of 0.2 W m-2 K-1 for the bottom layer produced 0.01 deg .
C of net deep ocean warming ( below 2000m ) over the last several decades which Cheng et al .
mentioned there is some limited evidence for .
The ENSO related forcings are both radiative ( shortwave and longwave ) , as well as non-radiative ( @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to deep ocean during La Nina , and the opposite during El Nino ) .
These are discussed more in our 2014 paper .
The appropriate coefficients are adjusted to get the best model match to CERES-observed behavior compared to the MEIv2 data ( 2000-2020 ) , observed SST variations , and observed deep-ocean temperature variations .
The full 500-year ENSO record is a combination of the Braganza et al .
( 2009 ) year data interpolated to monthly , the MEI-extended , MEI , and MEIv2 data , all intercalibrated .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ over its full period , 1525-1982 .
The following plot shows the 1D model-generated global average ( 60N-60S ) mixed layer temperature variations after the model has been tuned to match the observed sea surface temperature temperature trend ( 1880-2020 ) and the 0-2000m deep-ocean temperature trend ( Cheng et al.
, 2017 analysis data ) .
Note that the specified net radiative feedback parameter in the model corresponds to an equilibrium climate sensitivity of 1.91 deg .
C. If the model was forced to match the SST observations during 1979-2020 , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from these values also occurred if I used HadSST1 or HadSST4 data to optimize the model parameters .
The ECS result also heavily depends upon the accuracy of the 0-2000 meter ocean temperature measurements , shown next .
The 1D model was optimized to match the 0-2000m temperature trend only since 1995 , but we see in Fig .
2 that the limited data available back to 1940 also shows a reasonably good match .
Finally , here ’ s what the full 500 year model results look like .
Again , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I assume zero before that ) , while the combined ENSO dataset begins in 1525 .
The simple 1D model is meant to explain a variety of temperature-related observations with a physically-based model with only a small number of assumptions .
All of those assumptions can be faulted in one way or another , of course .
But the monthly correlation of 0.93 between the model and observed SST variations , 1979-2020 , is very good ( 0.94 for 1940-2020 ) for it being such a simple model .
Again , our primary @ @ @ @ @ @ @ activity affects our interpretation of warming trends in terms of human causation .
For example , ENSO can then be turned off in the model to see how it affects our interpretation of ( and causes of ) temperature trends over various time periods .
Or , one can examine the affect of assuming some level of non-equilibrium of the climate system at the model initialization time .
If nothing else , the results in Fig .
3 might give us some idea of the ENSO-related SST variations for 300-400 years before anthropogenic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ variations affected temperature trends on various time scales .
For if those naturally-induced temperature trend variations existed before , then they still exist today .

Reposted from Dr. Roy Spencer’s Blog
December 11th, 2020 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.
As part of a DOE contract John Christy and I have, we are using satellite data to examine climate model behavior. One of the problems I’ve been interested in is the effect of El Nino and La Nina (ENSO) on our understanding of human-caused climate change. A variety of ENSO records show multi-decadal variations in this activity, and it has even showed up in multi-millennial runs of a GFDL climate model.
Since El Nino produces global average warmth, and La Nina produces global average coolness, I have been using our 1D forcing feedback model of ocean temperatures (published by Spencer & Braswell, 2014) to examine how the historical record of ENSO variations can be included, by using the CERES satellite-observed co-variations of top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiative flux with ENSO.
I’ve updated that model to match the 20 years of CERES data (March 2000-March 2020). I have also extended the ENSO record back to 1525 with the Braganza et al. (2009) multi-proxy ENSO reconstruction data. I intercalibrated it with the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) data up though the present, and further extended into mid-2021 based upon the latest NOAA ENSO forecast. The Cheng et al. temperature data reconstruction for the 0-2000m layer is also used to calibrate the model adjustable coefficients.
I had been working on an extensive blog post with all of the details of how the model works and how ENSO is represented in it, which was far too detailed. So, I am instead going to just show you some results, after a brief model description.
1D Forcing-Feedback Model Description
The model assumes an initial state of energy equilibrium, and computes the temperature response to changes in radiative equilibrium of the global ocean-atmosphere system using the CMIP5 global radiative forcings (since 1765), along with our calculations of ENSO-related forcings. The model time step is 1 month.
The model has a mixed layer of adjustable depth (50 m gave optimum model behavior compared to observations), a second layer extending to 2,000m depth, and a third layer extending to the global-average ocean bottom depth of 3,688 m. Energy is transferred between ocean layers proportional to their difference in departures from equilibrium (zero temperature anomaly). The proportionality constant(s) have the same units as climate feedback parameters (W m-2 K-1), and are analogous to the heat transfer coefficient. A transfer coefficient of 0.2 W m-2 K-1 for the bottom layer produced 0.01 deg. C of net deep ocean warming (below 2000m) over the last several decades which Cheng et al. mentioned there is some limited evidence for.
The ENSO related forcings are both radiative (shortwave and longwave), as well as non-radiative (enhanced energy transferred from the mixed layer to deep ocean during La Nina, and the opposite during El Nino). These are discussed more in our 2014 paper. The appropriate coefficients are adjusted to get the best model match to CERES-observed behavior compared to the MEIv2 data (2000-2020), observed SST variations, and observed deep-ocean temperature variations. The full 500-year ENSO record is a combination of the Braganza et al. (2009) year data interpolated to monthly, the MEI-extended, MEI, and MEIv2 data, all intercalibrated. The Braganza ENSO record has a zero mean over its full period, 1525-1982.
Results
The following plot shows the 1D model-generated global average (60N-60S) mixed layer temperature variations after the model has been tuned to match the observed sea surface temperature temperature trend (1880-2020) and the 0-2000m deep-ocean temperature trend (Cheng et al., 2017 analysis data).
Fig. 1. 1D model temperature variations for the global oceans (60N-60S) to 50 m depth, compared to observations.
Note that the specified net radiative feedback parameter in the model corresponds to an equilibrium climate sensitivity of 1.91 deg. C. If the model was forced to match the SST observations during 1979-2020, the ECS was 2.3 deg. C. Variations from these values also occurred if I used HadSST1 or HadSST4 data to optimize the model parameters.
The ECS result also heavily depends upon the accuracy of the 0-2000 meter ocean temperature measurements, shown next.
Fig. 2. 1D model temperature changes for the 0-2000m layer since 1940, and compared to observations.
The 1D model was optimized to match the 0-2000m temperature trend only since 1995, but we see in Fig. 2 that the limited data available back to 1940 also shows a reasonably good match.
Finally, here’s what the full 500 year model results look like. Again, the CMIP5 forcings begin only in 1765 (I assume zero before that), while the combined ENSO dataset begins in 1525.
Fig. 3. Model results extended back to 1525 with the proxy ENSO forcings, and since 1765 with CMIP5 radiative forcings.
Discussion
The simple 1D model is meant to explain a variety of temperature-related observations with a physically-based model with only a small number of assumptions. All of those assumptions can be faulted in one way or another, of course.
But the monthly correlation of 0.93 between the model and observed SST variations, 1979-2020, is very good (0.94 for 1940-2020) for it being such a simple model. Again, our primary purpose was to examine how observed ENSO activity affects our interpretation of warming trends in terms of human causation.
For example, ENSO can then be turned off in the model to see how it affects our interpretation of (and causes of) temperature trends over various time periods. Or, one can examine the affect of assuming some level of non-equilibrium of the climate system at the model initialization time.
If nothing else, the results in Fig. 3 might give us some idea of the ENSO-related SST variations for 300-400 years before anthropogenic forcings became significant, and how those variations affected temperature trends on various time scales. For if those naturally-induced temperature trend variations existed before, then they still exist today.
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wattsupwiththat--2020-12-11--Claim: The greening of the earth is approaching its limit

A new study published in Science reveals that the fertilizing effect of excess CO2 on vegetation is decreasing worldwide When plants absorb this gas to grow , they remove it from the atmosphere and it is sequestered in their branches , trunk or roots .
An article published today in Science shows that this fertilizing effect of CO2 is decreasing worldwide , according to the text co-directed by Professor Josep Peñuelas of the CSIC at CREAF and Professor Yongguan Zhang of the University of Nanjin , with the participation of CREAF researchers Jordi Sardans and Marcos Fernández .
The study @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , concludes that the reduction has reached 50 % progressively since 1982 due basically to two key factors : the availability of water and nutrients .
“ There is no mystery about the formula , plants need CO2 , water and nutrients in order to grow .
However much the CO2 increases , if the nutrients and water do not increase in parallel , the plants will not be able to take advantage of the increase in this gas ” , explains Professor Josep Peñuelas .
In fact , three years ago Prof. @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Nature Ecology and Evolution that the fertilising effect of CO2 would not last forever , that plants can not grow indefinitely , because there are other factors that limit them .
If the fertilizing capacity of CO2 decreases , there will be strong consequences on the carbon cycle and therefore on the climate .
Forests have received a veritable CO2 bonus for decades , which has allowed them to sequester tons of carbon dioxide that enabled them to do more photosynthesis and grow more .
In fact , this increased sequestration has managed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ air , but now it is over .
“ These unprecedented results indicate that the absorption of carbon by vegetation is beginning to become saturated .
This has very important climate implications that must be taken into account in possible climate change mitigation strategies and policies at the global level .
Nature ’ s capacity to sequester carbon is decreasing and with it society ’ s dependence on future strategies to curb greenhouse gas emissions is increasing ” , warns Josep Peñuelas .
The study published in Science has been carried out using @ @ @ @ @ @ @ information .
It highlights the use of sensors that use near-infrared and fluorescence and are thus capable of measuring vegetation growth activity .
According to the results , the lack of water and nutrients are the two factors that reduce the capacity of CO2 to improve plant growth .
To reach this conclusion , the team based itself on data obtained from hundreds of forests studied over the last 40 years .
“ These data show that concentrations of essential nutrients in the leaves , such as nitrogen and phosphorus , have also @ @ @ @ @ @ @ researcher Songhan Wang , the first author of the article .
The team has also found that water availability and temporal changes in water supply play a significant role in this phenomenon .
“ We have found that plants slow down their growth , not only in times of drought , but also when there are changes in the seasonality of rainfall , which is increasingly happening with climate change , ” explains researcher Yongguan Zhang .

A new study published in Science reveals that the fertilizing effect of excess CO2 on vegetation is decreasing worldwide
SPANISH NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL (CSIC)
Research News
When plants absorb this gas to grow, they remove it from the atmosphere and it is sequestered in their branches, trunk or roots. An article published today in Science shows that this fertilizing effect of CO2 is decreasing worldwide, according to the text co-directed by Professor Josep Peñuelas of the CSIC at CREAF and Professor Yongguan Zhang of the University of Nanjin, with the participation of CREAF researchers Jordi Sardans and Marcos Fernández. The study, carried out by an international team, concludes that the reduction has reached 50% progressively since 1982 due basically to two key factors: the availability of water and nutrients. “There is no mystery about the formula, plants need CO2, water and nutrients in order to grow. However much the CO2 increases, if the nutrients and water do not increase in parallel, the plants will not be able to take advantage of the increase in this gas”, explains Professor Josep Peñuelas. In fact, three years ago Prof. Peñuelas already warned in an article in Nature Ecology and Evolution that the fertilising effect of CO2 would not last forever, that plants cannot grow indefinitely, because there are other factors that limit them.
If the fertilizing capacity of CO2 decreases, there will be strong consequences on the carbon cycle and therefore on the climate. Forests have received a veritable CO2 bonus for decades, which has allowed them to sequester tons of carbon dioxide that enabled them to do more photosynthesis and grow more. In fact, this increased sequestration has managed to reduce the CO2 accumulated in the air, but now it is over. “These unprecedented results indicate that the absorption of carbon by vegetation is beginning to become saturated. This has very important climate implications that must be taken into account in possible climate change mitigation strategies and policies at the global level. Nature’s capacity to sequester carbon is decreasing and with it society’s dependence on future strategies to curb greenhouse gas emissions is increasing”, warns Josep Peñuelas.
The study published in Science has been carried out using satellite, atmospheric, ecosystem and modelling information. It highlights the use of sensors that use near-infrared and fluorescence and are thus capable of measuring vegetation growth activity.
Less water and nutrients
According to the results, the lack of water and nutrients are the two factors that reduce the capacity of CO2 to improve plant growth. To reach this conclusion, the team based itself on data obtained from hundreds of forests studied over the last 40 years. “These data show that concentrations of essential nutrients in the leaves, such as nitrogen and phosphorus, have also progressively decreased since 1990,” explains researcher Songhan Wang, the first author of the article.
The team has also found that water availability and temporal changes in water supply play a significant role in this phenomenon. “We have found that plants slow down their growth, not only in times of drought, but also when there are changes in the seasonality of rainfall, which is increasingly happening with climate change,” explains researcher Yongguan Zhang.
###
Reference article:
Wang S, Zhang YG, Ju W, Chen, J, Ciais P, Cescatti A, Sardans J, Janssens IA, Sardans, J, Fernández-Martínez, M, … Penuelas J (2020). Recent global decline of CO2 fertilization effects on vegetation photosynthesis. Science, DOI: 10.1126/science.abb7772
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wattsupwiththat--2020-12-12--Jupiter and Saturn are converging for a rare “Great Conjunction” on the day of the winter solstice –

Jupiter and Saturn are converging for a rare “Great Conjunction” on the day of the winter solstice – December 21st

You may have already noticed two close together bright objects in the sunset sky in recent weeks which happen to be the giant gas planets of Jupiter and Saturn .
These two planets are actually converging for an even closer encounter in terms of their appearance to us here on Earth – the likes of which haven ’ t been seen in many , many centuries .
Jupiter and Saturn currently appear about 2 degrees apart and they will actually look only 0.1 degrees apart by the time we get to the winter solstice on December 21st – the day @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2020 .
Jupiter and Saturn conjunctions are the rarest of bright-planet conjunctions due to their slow orbits around the sun .
Saturn takes nearly 30 years to complete its circle around the sun whereas Jupiter takes nearly 12 years .
So just about every 20 years , Jupiter catches up to Saturn as viewed from Earth causing what is referred to by astronomers as a “ great conjunction ” .
Why every 20 years ?
Each year , Saturn completes about 12 degrees of its orbit around the sun , whereas Jupiter completes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ year , Jupiter closes the gap to Saturn by about 18 degrees .
In a period of 20 years , Jupiter gains 360 degrees on Saturn ( 18 x 20 = 360 degrees ) , meaning lapping Saturn once every 20 years .
This particular Jupiter/Saturn “ great conjunction ” is extremely rare because of how close the two planets will look to one another and how easy it will be to see .
Often , the glare of the sun makes their convergence difficult or even impossible to see from here on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ special because the conjunction happens comfortably away from the sun .
Here are the dates of the “ great conjunctions ” from 2000 to 2100 : Jupiter and Saturn already appear close together in the sunset sky and they are about to get even closer from our vantage point here on Earth .
The last time these two gas giants have appeared this close together was in the year 1623 during Galileo ’ s times , but the sun ’ s glare that year very likely obscured the pair of planets to sky @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the last time the two giant gas planets appeared so close together were so easy to see was during medieval times in the year 1226 .
While Jupiter and Saturn appear quite close together to us in the sunset sky , they are actually about 450 million miles apart from each other .
They will appear to get closer and closer each night during the next couple of weeks and – as an added bonus – the crescent Moon will join the planets on the 16th and 17th of December making for a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ By the time we get to the winter solstice on December 21 , Jupiter and Saturn will appear only 0.1 degrees apart , which is just 1/5 of a full moon diameter .
In fact , they will appear so close together that Saturn will actually look to us as close to Jupiter as some of its own moons .
The two planets may appear as a “ double planet ” to some depending on local viewing conditions or as one very bright star to others in the low southwest sky shortly after @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this great conjunction of Jupiter and Saturn as the “ Christmas Star ” because of the timing just a few days before Christmas .
Note- some Biblical scholars believe the “ Star of Bethlehem ” was a triple conjunction made up of the following : • Jupiter ( known as the king planet ) • Venus ( the brightest planet in our solar system ) • The star Regulus ( known as the kingly star ) in the constellation Leo .
Jupiter and Saturn should be visible within the same field-of-view on December @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ backyard ” telescope along with four of Jupiter ’ s largest moons spread out in a straight line .
Beyond December 21 , Jupiter and Saturn will move away from each other rather quickly in terms of appearance to us here on Earth and this trend will continue for the next ten years before they start to converge again during the 2030s .
This will set up the next “ Great Conjunction ” of the year 2040 ; however , that one will not be as brilliant as this one .
In @ @ @ @ @ @ @ t appear this close again until the year 2080 and in that late 21st century close encounter , Jupiter will completely cover Saturn which is an extremely rare event and won ’ t happen again until the year 7541 .
Make sure to mark your calendars specifically for December 21st to view this once-in-a-lifetime celestial event as this opportunity will be just a one-day affair.Just one day before and one day after , the planets will appear noticeably farther apart from each other and nowhere near as striking as on December 21st – @ @ @ @ @ @ @ day of astronomical winter .
The best viewing on December 21st will be from about 30 minutes to an hour after sunset in the low southwestern sky until the time the two planets set ( ~8:23 PM ET ) .

The “Great Conjunction” of December 21, 2020 will feature Jupiter and Saturn so close together that they will appear to most as one very bright star which some are already dubbing the ”Christmas-star”. Credit: Getty Images
By Paul Dorian
Overview
You may have already noticed two close together bright objects in the sunset sky in recent weeks which happen to be the giant gas planets of Jupiter and Saturn. These two planets are actually converging for an even closer encounter in terms of their appearance to us here on Earth – the likes of which haven’t been seen in many, many centuries. Jupiter and Saturn currently appear about 2 degrees apart and they will actually look only 0.1 degrees apart by the time we get to the winter solstice on December 21st – the day of the “Great Conjunction” of 2020.
Jupiter and Saturn will appear extremely close together on December 21st just after sunset in the low southwestern sky. [“Sky map” credit spaceweather.com]
Details
Jupiter and Saturn conjunctions are the rarest of bright-planet conjunctions due to their slow orbits around the sun. Saturn takes nearly 30 years to complete its circle around the sun whereas Jupiter takes nearly 12 years. So just about every 20 years, Jupiter catches up to Saturn as viewed from Earth causing what is referred to by astronomers as a “great conjunction”. Why every 20 years? Each year, Saturn completes about 12 degrees of its orbit around the sun, whereas Jupiter completes approximately 30 degrees. So in one year, Jupiter closes the gap to Saturn by about 18 degrees. In a period of 20 years, Jupiter gains 360 degrees on Saturn (18 x 20 = 360 degrees), meaning lapping Saturn once every 20 years.
This particular Jupiter/Saturn “great conjunction” is extremely rare because of how close the two planets will look to one another and how easy it will be to see. Often, the glare of the sun makes their convergence difficult or even impossible to see from here on Earth, but this year is very special because the conjunction happens comfortably away from the sun. Here are the dates of the “great conjunctions” from 2000 to 2100:
May 28, 2000
December 21, 2020
October 31, 2040
April 7, 2060
March 15, 2080
September 18, 2100
Jupiter and Saturn already appear close together in the sunset sky and they are about to get even closer from our vantage point here on Earth. The last time these two gas giants have appeared this close together was in the year 1623 during Galileo’s times, but the sun’s glare that year very likely obscured the pair of planets to sky watchers on Earth. In fact, the last time the two giant gas planets appeared so close together and were so easy to see was during medieval times in the year 1226. While Jupiter and Saturn appear quite close together to us in the sunset sky, they are actually about 450 million miles apart from each other. They will appear to get closer and closer each night during the next couple of weeks and – as an added bonus – the crescent Moon will join the planets on the 16th and 17th of December making for a beautiful sight assuming good viewing conditions.
By the time we get to the winter solstice on December 21, Jupiter and Saturn will appear only 0.1 degrees apart, which is just 1/5 of a full moon diameter. In fact, they will appear so close together that Saturn will actually look to us as close to Jupiter as some of its own moons. The two planets may appear as a “double planet” to some depending on local viewing conditions or as one very bright star to others in the low southwest sky shortly after sunset. Some are already referring to this great conjunction of Jupiter and Saturn as the “Christmas Star” because of the timing just a few days before Christmas. Note- some Biblical scholars believe the “Star of Bethlehem” was a triple conjunction made up of the following:
Jupiter (known as the king planet)
Venus (the brightest planet in our solar system)
The star Regulus (known as the kingly star) in the constellation Leo.
A look at Jupiter’s position in the sky relative to some of its largest moons which actually appear in a linear fashion. In January 1610, Italian astronomer Galileo Galilei discovered four of Jupiter’s moons — now called Io, Europa, Ganymede and Callisto. There are now thought to be as many as 79 moons of Jupiter with Europa being about the same size as Earth’s moon.
Jupiter and Saturn should be visible within the same field-of-view on December 21st whether using binoculars or a small “backyard” telescope along with four of Jupiter’s largest moons spread out in a straight line. Beyond December 21, Jupiter and Saturn will move away from each other rather quickly in terms of appearance to us here on Earth and this trend will continue for the next ten years before they start to converge again during the 2030s. This will set up the next “Great Conjunction” of the year 2040; however, that one will not be as brilliant as this one. In fact, the two planets won’t appear this close again until the year 2080 and in that late 21st century close encounter, Jupiter will completely cover Saturn which is an extremely rare event and won’t happen again until the year 7541.
Final Comments
Make sure to mark your calendars specifically for December 21st to view this once-in-a-lifetime celestial event as this opportunity will be just a one-day affair.Just one day before and one day after, the planets will appear noticeably farther apart from each other and nowhere near as striking as on December 21st – hopefully skies will cooperate on the first day of astronomical winter. The best viewing on December 21st will be from about 30 minutes to an hour after sunset in the low southwestern sky until the time the two planets set (~8:23 PM ET).
Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Perspecta, Inc.
perspectaweather.com
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Video discussion on “The Great Conjunction of December 21, 2020”.
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wattsupwiththat--2020-12-12--Novel cathode design significantly improves performance of next-generation battery

A team led by Cheong Ying Chan Professor of Engineering and Environment Prof. ZHAO Tianshou , Chair Professor of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering and Director of HKUST Energy Institute , has proposed a novel cathode design concept for lithium-sulfur ( Li-S ) battery that substantially improves the performance of this kind of promising next-generation battery .
Li-S batteries are regarded as attractive alternatives to lithium-ion ( Li-ion ) batteries that are commonly used in smartphones , electric vehicles , and drones .
They are known for their high energy density while their major component , sulfur , is abundant , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Li-S batteries can potentially offer an energy density of over 500 Wh/kg , significantly better than Li-ion batteries that reach their limit at 300 Wh/kg .
The higher energy density means that the approximate 400km driving range of an electric vehicle powered by Li-ion batteries can be substantially extended to 600-800km if powered by Li-S batteries .
While exciting results on Li-S batteries have been achieved by researchers worldwide , there is still a big gap between lab research and commercialization of the technology on an industrial scale .
One key issue @ @ @ @ @ @ @ batteries that causes progressive leakage of active material from the cathode and lithium corrosion , resulting in a short life cycle for the battery .
Other challenges include reducing the amount of electrolyte in the battery while maintaining stable battery performance .
To address these issues , Prof. Zhao ’ s team collaborated with international researchers to propose a cathode design concept that could achieve good Li-S battery performance .
The highly oriented macroporous host can uniformly accommodate the sulfur while abundant active sites are embedded inside the host to tightly absorb the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lithium metal corrosion .
By bringing up a design principle for sulfur cathode in Li-S batteries , the joint team increased the batteries ’ energy density and made a big step towards the industrialization of the batteries .
“ We are still in the middle of basic research in this field , ” Prof. Zhao said .
“ However , our novel electrode design concept and the associated breakthrough in performance represent a big step towards the practical use of a next-generation battery that is even more powerful and longer-lasting than today ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was recently published in Nature Nanotechnology under the title “ A high-energy and long-cycling lithium-sulfur pouch cell via a macroporous catalytic cathode with double-end binding sites ” .
Team members from HKUST include Prof. Zhao and his current PhD students ZHAO Chen , ZHANG Leicheng , and former PhD student REN Yuxun ( 2019 graduate ) .
Other collaborators include researchers from Argonne National Laboratory and Stanford University in the US , Xiamen University in Mainland China , and Imam Abdulrahman Bin Faisal University in Saudi Arabia .

HONG KONG UNIVERSITY OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
Research News
IMAGE: AN ALL-IN-ONE SOLUTION FOR THE DESIGN STRATEGY OF MACROPOROUS HOST WITH DOUBLE-END BINDING SITES. view more CREDIT: HKUST
A team led by Cheong Ying Chan Professor of Engineering and Environment Prof. ZHAO Tianshou, Chair Professor of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering and Director of HKUST Energy Institute, has proposed a novel cathode design concept for lithium-sulfur (Li-S) battery that substantially improves the performance of this kind of promising next-generation battery.
Li-S batteries are regarded as attractive alternatives to lithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries that are commonly used in smartphones, electric vehicles, and drones. They are known for their high energy density while their major component, sulfur, is abundant, light, cheap, and environmentally benign.
Li-S batteries can potentially offer an energy density of over 500 Wh/kg, significantly better than Li-ion batteries that reach their limit at 300 Wh/kg. The higher energy density means that the approximate 400km driving range of an electric vehicle powered by Li-ion batteries can be substantially extended to 600-800km if powered by Li-S batteries.
While exciting results on Li-S batteries have been achieved by researchers worldwide, there is still a big gap between lab research and commercialization of the technology on an industrial scale. One key issue is the polysulfide shuttle effect of Li-S batteries that causes progressive leakage of active material from the cathode and lithium corrosion, resulting in a short life cycle for the battery. Other challenges include reducing the amount of electrolyte in the battery while maintaining stable battery performance.
To address these issues, Prof. Zhao’s team collaborated with international researchers to propose a cathode design concept that could achieve good Li-S battery performance.
The highly oriented macroporous host can uniformly accommodate the sulfur while abundant active sites are embedded inside the host to tightly absorb the polysulfide, eliminating the shuttle effect and lithium metal corrosion. By bringing up a design principle for sulfur cathode in Li-S batteries, the joint team increased the batteries’ energy density and made a big step towards the industrialization of the batteries.
“We are still in the middle of basic research in this field,” Prof. Zhao said. “However, our novel electrode design concept and the associated breakthrough in performance represent a big step towards the practical use of a next-generation battery that is even more powerful and longer-lasting than today’s lithium-ion batteries.”
###
Their research work was recently published in Nature Nanotechnology under the title “A high-energy and long-cycling lithium-sulfur pouch cell via a macroporous catalytic cathode with double-end binding sites”.
Team members from HKUST include Prof. Zhao and his current PhD students ZHAO Chen, ZHANG Leicheng, and former PhD student REN Yuxun (2019 graduate). Other collaborators include researchers from Argonne National Laboratory and Stanford University in the US, Xiamen University in Mainland China, and Imam Abdulrahman Bin Faisal University in Saudi Arabia.
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wattsupwiththat--2020-12-13--Did Climate Change Cause World Heritage Listed Fraser Island to Burn?

In mid October , an illegal campfire on World Heritage Site Fraser Island caused a blaze which is still smouldering .
Fraser Island is only 8 miles across – so questions are being asked , about why a tiny island connected to the mainland by two vehicle barge services , with a major airport capable of handling 747s nearby in Hervey Bay , within a few hours drive of the state capital Brisbane , was allowed to burn .
Fighting for Fraser Island : how tourism and climate change put an ancient environment at risk Campaigners who helped end logging @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lakes , rainforests and beaches now fear global heating Before he died in February 2019 , John Sinclair had been fighting for Fraser Island off the Queensland coast for the best part of 50 years .
In the early 1970s the world ’ s biggest sand island – an ethereal paradise of lakes , towering rainforests and ancient dunes – was under pressure from sand mining and more than a century of logging .
By 1976 , Sinclair and his purpose-built Fraser Island Defenders Organisation ( Fido ) had fought off the sand @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for the logging to stop .
Two months ago , an illegal campfire on the island got out of control .
With drier than usual conditions and high temperatures , the blaze has so far scorched 85,000 hectares – more than half the island .
What would John Sinclair have made of the devastation ?
“ He ’ d probably have said : I told you this would happen , ” his son Keith tells the Guardian .
“ He ’ d say : What are we going to do to make sure @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” However some people are not quite so ready to blame the failure to control the blaze on our climate sins .
An emergency bushfire warning was issued for the fire on Sunday with residents in the island town of Happy Valley advised to “ leave immediately ” .
Water bombing did not commence until November 14 — about one month after the fire started .
LNP spokesman for fire and emergency services Dale Last said the State Government needed to answer serious questions over the fire ’ s management .
“ These @ @ @ @ @ @ @ what ’ s more shocking is the silence from Fire Minister Mark Ryan , ” he said .
“ He needs to front up .
He needs to explain what the Government knew about fire warnings and why they were ignored .
“ Queenslanders deserve to know what the Government could have done to prevent the spread of this fire .
“ This is a World Heritage-listed site that has been treated appallingly from a weak minister who is failing to take any responsibility for this unfolding disaster.
” Steve Knight , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of Happy Valley , told ABC Radio Brisbane some residents were frustrated that more resources were not put towards fighting the fire earlier .
“ I don ’ t think anyone thought this one would get to where it is now and in fact I ’ m really annoyed that they didn ’ t pile the resources they ’ re applying to it now to it much earlier , ” he said .
“ They could have stopped this in its tracks a long time ago in my view but I ’ m @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not my department.
” Fraser Island is a narrow strip of land surrounded by sea .
A single bulldozer could have cut a large fire break across the entire island in a few days .
A marine fire fighting barge could have flooded the fire with millions of litres per day of sea water , with a maximum hose length of 4 miles ( half the 8 mile width of the island ) , well within the capabilities of modern mine pumping or fire fighting equipment .
But all of these decisions would @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to any firefighting measure which might damage or contaminate the world heritage listed forest .
So instead decision makers sat on their hands until the fire was totally out of control , and let the island burn to a crisp .
Now they are trying to blame climate change for the catastrophic consequences of their failure to respond in a timely and appropriate manner .
Note I am not disparaging the efforts of the firefighters on the ground .
Within their apparently appalling rules of engagement they worked their butts of to save @ @ @ @ @ @ @ least one was hospitalised for heat exhaustion .

Fraser Island. Public Domain, link. Two vehicle ferry services operate from Rainbow Beach and a second location just south of Hervey Bay
Guest essay by Eric Worrall
In mid October, an illegal campfire on World Heritage Site Fraser Island caused a blaze which is still smouldering. Fraser Island is only 8 miles across – so questions are being asked, about why a tiny island connected to the mainland by two vehicle barge services, with a major airport capable of handling 747s nearby in Hervey Bay, within a few hours drive of the state capital Brisbane, was allowed to burn.
Fighting for Fraser Island: how tourism and climate change put an ancient environment at risk Campaigners who helped end logging and mining in the spectacular paradise of lakes, rainforests and beaches now fear global heating Before he died in February 2019, John Sinclair had been fighting for Fraser Island off the Queensland coast for the best part of 50 years. In the early 1970s the world’s biggest sand island – an ethereal paradise of lakes, towering rainforests and ancient dunes – was under pressure from sand mining and more than a century of logging. By 1976, Sinclair and his purpose-built Fraser Island Defenders Organisation (Fido) had fought off the sand miners. It took another 15 years for the logging to stop. Two months ago, an illegal campfire on the island got out of control. With drier than usual conditions and high temperatures, the blaze has so far scorched 85,000 hectares – more than half the island. What would John Sinclair have made of the devastation? “He’d probably have said: I told you this would happen,” his son Keith tells the Guardian. “He’d say: What are we going to do to make sure it won’t happen again?” … Read more: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/dec/11/fighting-for-fraser-island-how-tourism-and-climate-change-put-an-ancient-environment-at-risk
However some people are not quite so ready to blame the failure to control the blaze on our climate sins.
Queensland Premier defends Fraser Island bushfire management as blaze continues to threaten Happy Valley By Rachel Riga and staff … An emergency bushfire warning was issued for the fire on Sunday with residents in the island town of Happy Valley advised to “leave immediately”. Water bombing did not commence until November 14 — about one month after the fire started. LNP spokesman for fire and emergency services Dale Last said the State Government needed to answer serious questions over the fire’s management. “These fires have caused shocking damage, but what’s more shocking is the silence from Fire Minister Mark Ryan,” he said. “He needs to front up. He needs to explain what the Government knew about fire warnings and why they were ignored. “Queenslanders deserve to know what the Government could have done to prevent the spread of this fire. “This is a World Heritage-listed site that has been treated appallingly from a weak minister who is failing to take any responsibility for this unfolding disaster.” … Steve Knight, the owner of a retreat in beachside town of Happy Valley, told ABC Radio Brisbane some residents were frustrated that more resources were not put towards fighting the fire earlier. “I don’t think anyone thought this one would get to where it is now and in fact I’m really annoyed that they didn’t pile the resources they’re applying to it now to it much earlier,” he said. “They could have stopped this in its tracks a long time ago in my view but I’m not a fireman and it’s not my department.” … Read more: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-12-07/qld-fraser-island-bushfire-management/12957056
Fraser Island is a narrow strip of land surrounded by sea.
A single bulldozer could have cut a large fire break across the entire island in a few days. A marine fire fighting barge could have flooded the fire with millions of litres per day of sea water, with a maximum hose length of 4 miles (half the 8 mile width of the island), well within the capabilities of modern mine pumping or fire fighting equipment.
But all of these decisions would have required facing down green radicals opposed to any firefighting measure which might damage or contaminate the world heritage listed forest.
So instead decision makers sat on their hands until the fire was totally out of control, and let the island burn to a crisp.
Now they are trying to blame climate change for the catastrophic consequences of their failure to respond in a timely and appropriate manner.
Note I am not disparaging the efforts of the firefighters on the ground. Within their apparently appalling rules of engagement they worked their butts of to save lives and homes, I heard at least one was hospitalised for heat exhaustion.
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wattsupwiththat--2020-12-12--Canada’s Trudeau Promises $170 / Ton Carbon Tax by 2030

Canada PM Justin Trudeau has promised to make manufacturers pay $ 170 / ton of CO2 for the crime of providing Canadians with jobs and economic security .
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau stepped up efforts to hit Canada ’ s emissions targets by 2030 , pledging billions in new money to combat climate change and increasing his marquee carbon tax .
The measures , announced Friday in Ottawa by Trudeau and Environment Minister Jonathan Wilkinson , seek to put the resource-rich northern nation on track to cut greenhouse-gas emissions by as much as 40 per cent below 2005 levels by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the current 30 per cent goal .
Central to achieving that will be an increase in the government ’ s carbon price to $ 170 ( US $ 133 ) per metric ton by 2030 .
It was already on track to hit $ 50 two years from now , and will increase by $ 15 a year after that .
Though revenue from the levy is returned to the provinces via consumer rebates , it ’ s being challenged in the courts by oil-producing Alberta and others .
“ There are still @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to be free again , ” Trudeau told reporters .
“ We are going to continue to increase the price on pollution and give more money back to Canadians and their families .
”

Guest essay by Eric Worrall
Canada PM Justin Trudeau has promised to make manufacturers pay $170 / ton of CO2 for the crime of providing Canadians with jobs and economic security.
Trudeau hikes carbon tax, positions Canada to hit climate goal
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau stepped up efforts to hit Canada’s emissions targets by 2030, pledging billions in new money to combat climate change and increasing his marquee carbon tax.
The measures, announced Friday in Ottawa by Trudeau and Environment Minister Jonathan Wilkinson, seek to put the resource-rich northern nation on track to cut greenhouse-gas emissions by as much as 40 per cent below 2005 levels by the end of this decade, versus the current 30 per cent goal.
Central to achieving that will be an increase in the government’s carbon price to $170 (US$133) per metric ton by 2030. It was already on track to hit $50 two years from now, and will increase by $15 a year after that. Though revenue from the levy is returned to the provinces via consumer rebates, it’s being challenged in the courts by oil-producing Alberta and others.
“There are still places in this country that want pollution to be free again,” Trudeau told reporters. “We are going to continue to increase the price on pollution and give more money back to Canadians and their families.”
…


wattsupwiththat--2020-12-12--Finding: Mass Extinctions of Land-Dwelling Animals Occur in 27-Million-Year Cycle

Mass extinctions of land-dwelling animals—including amphibians , reptiles , mammals , and birds—follow a cycle of about 27 million years , coinciding with previously reported mass extinctions of ocean life , according to a new analysis published in the journal Historical Biology .
The study also finds that these mass extinctions align with major asteroid impacts and devastating volcanic outpourings of lava called flood-basalt eruptions—providing potential causes for why the extinctions occurred .
“ It seems that large-body impacts and the pulses of internal Earth activity that create flood-basalt volcanism may be marching to the same 27-million-year drumbeat as the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the Galaxy , ” said Michael Rampino , a professor in New York University ’ s Department of Biology and the study ’ s lead author .
Sixty-six million years ago , 70 percent of all species on land and in the seas , including the dinosaurs , suddenly went extinct , in the disastrous aftermath of the collision of a large asteroid or comet with the Earth .
Subsequently , paleontologists discovered that such mass extinctions of marine life , in which up to 90 percent of species disappeared , were @ @ @ @ @ @ @ come in a 26-million-year cycle .
In their Historical Biology study , Rampino and co-authors Ken Caldeira of the Carnegie Institution for Science and Yuhong Zhu of NYU ’ s Center for Data Science , examined the record of mass extinctions of land-dwelling animals and concluded that they coincided with the extinctions of ocean life .
They also performed new statistical analyses of the extinctions of land species and demonstrated that those events followed a similar cycle of about 27.5 million years .
What could be causing the periodic mass extinctions on land @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are not the only events occurring in cycles : the ages of impact craters—created by asteroids and comets crashing to the Earth ’ s surface—also follow a cycle aligning with the extinction cycle .
Astrophysicists hypothesize that periodic comet showers occur in the Solar System every 26 to 30 million years , producing cyclical impacts and resulting in periodic mass extinctions .
The Sun and planets cycle through the crowded mid-plane of the Milky Way Galaxy about every 30 million years .
During those times , comet showers are possible , leading to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ impacts can create conditions that would stress and potentially kill off land and marine life , including widespread dark and cold , wildfires , acid rain , and ozone depletion .
“ These new findings of coinciding , sudden mass extinctions on land and in the oceans , and of the common 26- to 27-million-year cycle , lend credence to the idea of periodic global catastrophic events as the triggers for the extinctions , ” said Rampino .
“ In fact , three of the mass annihilations of species on land and in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ occurred at the same times as the three largest impacts of the last 250 million years , each capable of causing a global disaster and resulting mass extinctions.
” The researchers were surprised to find another possible explanation beyond asteroids for mass extinctions : flood-basalt eruptions , or giant volcanic eruptions that cover vast areas with lava .
All eight of the coinciding mass die-offs on land and in the oceans matched times of flood-basalt eruptions .
These eruptions also would have created severe conditions for life , including brief periods of intense @ @ @ @ @ @ @ destruction and increased radiation ; longer term , eruptions could lead to lethal greenhouse heating and more acid and less oxygen in the ocean .
“ The global mass extinctions were apparently caused by the largest cataclysmic impacts and massive volcanism , perhaps sometimes working in concert , ” added Rampino .

Mass extinctions of land-dwelling animals—including amphibians, reptiles, mammals, and birds—follow a cycle of about 27 million years, coinciding with previously reported mass extinctions of ocean life, according to a new analysis published in the journal Historical Biology.
The study also finds that these mass extinctions align with major asteroid impacts and devastating volcanic outpourings of lava called flood-basalt eruptions—providing potential causes for why the extinctions occurred.
“It seems that large-body impacts and the pulses of internal Earth activity that create flood-basalt volcanism may be marching to the same 27-million-year drumbeat as the extinctions, perhaps paced by our orbit in the Galaxy,” said Michael Rampino, a professor in New York University’s Department of Biology and the study’s lead author.
Sixty-six million years ago, 70 percent of all species on land and in the seas, including the dinosaurs, suddenly went extinct, in the disastrous aftermath of the collision of a large asteroid or comet with the Earth. Subsequently, paleontologists discovered that such mass extinctions of marine life, in which up to 90 percent of species disappeared, were not random events, but seemed to come in a 26-million-year cycle.
In their Historical Biology study, Rampino and co-authors Ken Caldeira of the Carnegie Institution for Science and Yuhong Zhu of NYU’s Center for Data Science, examined the record of mass extinctions of land-dwelling animals and concluded that they coincided with the extinctions of ocean life. They also performed new statistical analyses of the extinctions of land species and demonstrated that those events followed a similar cycle of about 27.5 million years.
What could be causing the periodic mass extinctions on land and in the seas? Mass extinctions are not the only events occurring in cycles: the ages of impact craters—created by asteroids and comets crashing to the Earth’s surface—also follow a cycle aligning with the extinction cycle.
Astrophysicists hypothesize that periodic comet showers occur in the Solar System every 26 to 30 million years, producing cyclical impacts and resulting in periodic mass extinctions. The Sun and planets cycle through the crowded mid-plane of the Milky Way Galaxy about every 30 million years. During those times, comet showers are possible, leading to large impacts on the Earth. The impacts can create conditions that would stress and potentially kill off land and marine life, including widespread dark and cold, wildfires, acid rain, and ozone depletion.
“These new findings of coinciding, sudden mass extinctions on land and in the oceans, and of the common 26- to 27-million-year cycle, lend credence to the idea of periodic global catastrophic events as the triggers for the extinctions,” said Rampino. “In fact, three of the mass annihilations of species on land and in the sea are already known to have occurred at the same times as the three largest impacts of the last 250 million years, each capable of causing a global disaster and resulting mass extinctions.”
Lichen-covered flows from the Siberian flood basalts. Photo: Linda Elkins-Tanton
The researchers were surprised to find another possible explanation beyond asteroids for mass extinctions: flood-basalt eruptions, or giant volcanic eruptions that cover vast areas with lava. All eight of the coinciding mass die-offs on land and in the oceans matched times of flood-basalt eruptions. These eruptions also would have created severe conditions for life, including brief periods of intense cold, acid rain, and ozone destruction and increased radiation; longer term, eruptions could lead to lethal greenhouse heating and more acid and less oxygen in the ocean.
“The global mass extinctions were apparently caused by the largest cataclysmic impacts and massive volcanism, perhaps sometimes working in concert,” added Rampino.
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wattsupwiththat--2020-12-12--Raise your hand if you knew Newfoundland was devastated by a major tsunami in 1929

Only a few months ago , I discovered that the Burin Peninsula on the south shore of Newfoundland in eastern Canada was devastated by a major tsunami in 1929 , which inspired my new short novel , UPHEAVAL .
My story is about an ice tsunami that devastates Cape Breton Island in 2026 ( an ocean wave triggered by an earthquake or underwater landslide becomes an ice tsunami when it travels under sea ice before it comes ashore ) .
Here are the details on that little-known 1929 tsunami event – which even a colleague who is a tsunami advisor @ @ @ @ @ @ @ members who had lived in Nova Scotia had never heard of before .
On 18 November 1929 a tsunami struck Newfoundland ’ s Burin Peninsula and caused considerable loss of life and property .
Giant waves hit the coast at 40 km/hr , flooding dozens of communities and washing entire homes out to sea .
The disaster killed 28 people and left hundreds more homeless or destitute .
It was the most destructive earthquake-related event in Newfoundland and Labrador ’ s history and occurred at the beginning of a worldwide depression .
Despite @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the tsunami , no one in Newfoundland and Labrador anticipated the approaching danger .
Large-scale seismic events are rare in eastern North America and virtually non-existent in Newfoundland and Labrador ; in 1929 , the country did not even possess a seismograph or tide gauge which could warn of the tsunami .
Moreover , a recent storm had severed the single telegraph line linking the Burin Peninsula with the rest of the island ; it was not until almost three days after the tsunami struck that the Squires government learned of the disaster @ @ @ @ @ @ @ At 5:02 p.m. on Monday 18 November 1929 , an underwater earthquake occurred on the southern edge Grand Banks , about 265 kilometres south of Newfoundland ’ s Burin Peninsula .
It measured 7.2 on the Richter scale and was recorded in locations as far west as New York and Montreal and as far east as Portugal .
On the Burin Peninsula , ground tremors lasted for about five minutes but did not cause any serious damage to houses or other structures .
No one in the area had experienced an earthquake before @ @ @ @ @ @ @ what was happening , none imagined the tsunami that would follow .
On the Grand Banks , the earthquake triggered a sizeable underwater landslide , which in turn forced a series of large waves across the ocean ’ s surface .
The tsunami raced towards Newfoundland at speeds of up to 140 km/hr , before slowing to about 40 km/hr in shallower water .
It registered on tide gauges in Bermuda , Portugal , the Azores , and along the United States ’ eastern coast .
Newfoundland , however , had no knowledge @ @ @ @ @ @ @ approaching its southern coast .
Tsunami Reaches Burin Peninsula At about 7:30 p.m. , residents along the Burin Peninsula noticed a rapid drop in sea level as the lowest point of the tsunami ’ s first wave , known as a trough , reached the coast .
As the water receded , it exposed portions of the ocean floor that were normally submerged and caused boats docked at various harbours to tumble over onto their sides .
Minutes later , three successive waves hit the shore and water levels rose dramatically .
In @ @ @ @ @ @ @ three to seven metres above normal , but in some of the peninsula ’ s long narrow bays , such as at Port au Bras , St. Lawrence , and Taylor ’ s Bay , the water rose by between 13 and 27 metres .
The force of the waves lifted houses off their foundations , swept schooners and other vessels out to sea , destroyed stages and flakes , and damaged wharves , fish stores , and other structures along the peninsula ’ s extensive coastline .
Approximately 127,000 kilograms of salt @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tsunami , which affected more than 40 communities on the Burin Peninsula .
At Point au Gaul , giant waves destroyed close to 100 buildings as well as much of the community ’ s fishing gear and food supplies ; St. Lawrence lost all of its flakes , stages , and motor boats .
Government assessment later placed property damage on the Burin Peninsula at $ 1 million .
Worse than the damage to property , however , was the loss of human life .
The tsunami killed 28 people in southern Newfoundland @ @ @ @ @ @ @ documented earthquake-related event in Canadian history .
Twenty-five victims drowned during the disaster ( six bodies were washed out to sea and never found ) and another three later died from shock or other tsunami-related conditions .
The deaths were confined to six communities : Allan ’ s Island , Kelly ’ s Cove , Point au Gaul , Lord ’ s Cove , Taylor ’ s Bay , and Port au Bras .
Fortunately , the tsunami struck on a calm evening when most people were still awake and could quickly react @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to evacuate their homes and flee to higher ground .
Read the whole thing here .
See also The 1929 Magnitude 7.2 “ Grand Banks ” earthquake and tsunami ’ 90 years later , a tsunami in southern Newfoundland still brings vivid memories ‘ ( CBC News report , Nov. 18 2019 ) : The Newfoundland Tsunami of November 18 , 1929 : An Examination of the Twenty-eight Deaths of the “ South Coast Disaster ” ( 2006 ) : Ruffman , Alan .
1994 .
The November 18 , 1929 ‘ Tidal @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Tragic Earthquake [ Abstract ] .
Atlantic Geology , Vol .
30 , No .
2 , July , pp .
157-158 .

Reposted from Polar Bear Science
Posted on December 10, 2020 |
Only a few months ago, I discovered that the Burin Peninsula on the south shore of Newfoundland in eastern Canada was devastated by a major tsunami in 1929, which inspired my new short novel, UPHEAVAL. My story is about an ice tsunami that devastates Cape Breton Island in 2026 (an ocean wave triggered by an earthquake or underwater landslide becomes an ice tsunami when it travels under sea ice before it comes ashore). Here are the details on that little-known 1929 tsunami event – which even a colleague who is a tsunami advisor for his area of Alaska and family members who had lived in Nova Scotia had never heard of before.
Summary
On 18 November 1929 a tsunami struck Newfoundland’s Burin Peninsula and caused considerable loss of life and property. Giant waves hit the coast at 40 km/hr, flooding dozens of communities and washing entire homes out to sea. The disaster killed 28 people and left hundreds more homeless or destitute. It was the most destructive earthquake-related event in Newfoundland and Labrador’s history and occurred at the beginning of a worldwide depression.
Despite the magnitude of the earthquake which precipitated the tsunami, no one in Newfoundland and Labrador anticipated the approaching danger. Large-scale seismic events are rare in eastern North America and virtually non-existent in Newfoundland and Labrador; in 1929, the country did not even possess a seismograph or tide gauge which could warn of the tsunami. Moreover, a recent storm had severed the single telegraph line linking the Burin Peninsula with the rest of the island; it was not until almost three days after the tsunami struck that the Squires government learned of the disaster and was able to send help.
‘Grand Banks’ Earthquake
At 5:02 p.m. on Monday 18 November 1929, an underwater earthquake occurred on the southern edge Grand Banks, about 265 kilometres south of Newfoundland’s Burin Peninsula. It measured 7.2 on the Richter scale and was recorded in locations as far west as New York and Montreal and as far east as Portugal. On the Burin Peninsula, ground tremors lasted for about five minutes but did not cause any serious damage to houses or other structures. No one in the area had experienced an earthquake before, and although a few people understood what was happening, none imagined the tsunami that would follow.
On the Grand Banks, the earthquake triggered a sizeable underwater landslide, which in turn forced a series of large waves across the ocean’s surface. The tsunami raced towards Newfoundland at speeds of up to 140 km/hr, before slowing to about 40 km/hr in shallower water. It registered on tide gauges in Bermuda, Portugal, the Azores, and along the United States’ eastern coast. Newfoundland, however, had no knowledge of the giant waves that were quickly approaching its southern coast.
Tsunami Reaches Burin Peninsula
At about 7:30 p.m., residents along the Burin Peninsula noticed a rapid drop in sea level as the lowest point of the tsunami’s first wave, known as a trough, reached the coast. As the water receded, it exposed portions of the ocean floor that were normally submerged and caused boats docked at various harbours to tumble over onto their sides. Minutes later, three successive waves hit the shore and water levels rose dramatically. In most places, the sea level swelled three to seven metres above normal, but in some of the peninsula’s long narrow bays, such as at Port au Bras, St. Lawrence, and Taylor’s Bay, the water rose by between 13 and 27 metres.
The force of the waves lifted houses off their foundations, swept schooners and other vessels out to sea, destroyed stages and flakes, and damaged wharves, fish stores, and other structures along the peninsula’s extensive coastline. Approximately 127,000 kilograms of salt cod were also washed away by the tsunami, which affected more than 40 communities on the Burin Peninsula. At Point au Gaul, giant waves destroyed close to 100 buildings as well as much of the community’s fishing gear and food supplies; St. Lawrence lost all of its flakes, stages, and motor boats. Government assessment later placed property damage on the Burin Peninsula at $1 million.
Worse than the damage to property, however, was the loss of human life. The tsunami killed 28 people in southern Newfoundland, which is more than any other documented earthquake-related event in Canadian history. Twenty-five victims drowned during the disaster (six bodies were washed out to sea and never found) and another three later died from shock or other tsunami-related conditions. The deaths were confined to six communities: Allan’s Island, Kelly’s Cove, Point au Gaul, Lord’s Cove, Taylor’s Bay, and Port au Bras. Fortunately, the tsunami struck on a calm evening when most people were still awake and could quickly react to the rising water; many managed to evacuate their homes and flee to higher ground.
Read the whole thing here.
See also The 1929 Magnitude 7.2 “Grand Banks” earthquake and tsunami
’90 years later, a tsunami in southern Newfoundland still brings vivid memories‘ (CBC News report, Nov. 18 2019):
The Newfoundland Tsunami of November 18, 1929: An Examination of the Twenty-eight Deaths of the “South Coast Disaster” (2006):
Ruffman, Alan. 1994. The November 18, 1929 ‘ Tidal Wave’: Canada’s Most Tragic Earthquake [Abstract]. Atlantic Geology, Vol. 30, No. 2, July, pp. 157-158.
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