wattsupwiththat--2020-03-23--Warming Improves Our Health – part 1

Warming Improves Our Health – part 1

It ’ s deeply disturbing to hear people uncritically regurgitate media misinformation suggesting global warming threatens our health far worse than the COVID pandemic .
Scientific evidence unequivocally shows colder weather is the major killer .
As Figure 1 illustrates , the percentage of all deaths attributed to weather and temperature increases during the cold months .
In contrast mortalities rates fall during warmer months .
Researchers examining 74 million deaths across the globe from 1985-2012 found 7.3 % were caused by temperatures cooler than the optimum compared to just 0.4 % attributed to temperatures above the optimum .
Extreme @ @ @ @ @ @ @ only accounted for 0.9 % of all deaths .
Likewise , a 2014 National Health Statistics reports found , “ During 2006–2010 , about 2,000 U.S. residents died each year from weather-related deaths .
About 31 % of these deaths were attributed to exposure to excessive natural heat , heat stroke , sun stroke ; 63 % were attributed to exposure to excessive natural cold , hypothermia , or both.
” Similarly , according to the CDC , from 1979-1999 , a total of 8015 deaths in the United States were heat related @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
So why aren ’ t people listening to the science ?
Global warming fear is based on speculation regards what could happen in the future if global average temperatures rose 2°F to 4°F .
But scary predictions are not scientific fact until their hypotheses are tested and verified .
Without time machines we can not directly test predicted outcomes for the years 2050 or 2100 .
But we can observe the effects of a similar temperature change .
In the United States people have steadily migrated away from the cold Northeast to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ they are exposed to higher average temperatures , temperatures equal to or greater than what global warming predicts they would endure if they remained in the Northeast .
The good news , scientists determined that “ migration from the Northeast to the Southwest accounts for 4 % to 7 % of the total gains in life expectancy experienced by the U.S. population over the past thirty years.
” We can infer a similar benefit from global warming .
A complementary study determined people that migrated to colder climates suffered ‘ greater cardiovascular mortality @ @ @ @ @ @ @ native country .
Because the two major U.S. government agencies that track heat and cold deaths – NOAA and the CDC – differ sharply on which is the bigger killer , the public is rightfully confused .
In contrast to the CDC results , NOAA argues heat is killing twice as many people as cold , but NOAA ’ s researchers have also been heavily invested in catastrophic global warming claims .
By statistically adjusting the data via “ seasonal detrending ” , they remove the greater number of winter deaths in their @ @ @ @ @ @ @ deaths .
They justify their adjustments arguing factors such as increased winter deaths due to flu season are not directly due to colder temperatures .
But that obscures the health effects of temperature .
Colder temperatures reduce the effectiveness of our immune systems , which promotes influenza epidemics that may kill 34,000 to 60,000 people in a year .
Because influenza season ends when temperatures warm , scientists are hoping warmer weather will similarly curtail the novel COVID-19 pandemic .
NOAA ’ s adjusted data focuses on deaths from heat waves and cold @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a greater spike in deaths during heat waves , but research suggests heat waves have a small long‑term effect due to a “ harvesting effect ” .
Us elderly and health compromised people are most vulnerable to extreme weather and epidemics .
The “ harvesting effect ” describes an event during which vulnerable people who would have likely died over the following months instead died “ prematurely ” during an extreme event .
But mortality rates drop in the following months because the most vulnerable have already passed .
Researchers have found because @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a heat wave there is no long‑term population effect .
In contrast , cold snaps do have long-term effects as researchers found no such “ harvesting effect ” .
Although alarming models and media narratives suggest global warming causes more extreme heat waves , scientific data disagrees .
As the EPA ’ s heat wave index illustrates ( below ) , there has been no increase in heat waves as the worse heat waves happened during the 1930s .
Fortunately , heat waves are short‑lived and foreseeable .
Weather forecasters detect approaching high-pressure @ @ @ @ @ @ @ solar heating .
High pressure systems inhibit rising air currents that normally carry heat away .
And high‑pressure systems draw warm tropical air poleward on one flank while blocking cooler air from moving south .
By forecasting extreme heat waves , scientists believe we can prevent most heat wave deaths .
Urban heat effects are 2°F to 10°F warmer than the countryside , thus urban dwellers should be most careful .
And because elderly people who lack air conditioning are most vulnerable and less mobile , we can make sure they are moved @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Jim Steele is Director emeritus of San Francisco State ’ s Sierra Nevada Field Campus and authored Landscapes and Cycles : An Environmentalist ’ s Journey to Climate Skepticism

What’s Natural
Guest post by Jim Steele,
It’s deeply disturbing to hear people uncritically regurgitate media misinformation suggesting global warming threatens our health far worse than the COVID pandemic. Scientific evidence unequivocally shows colder weather is the major killer. As Figure 1 illustrates, the percentage of all deaths attributed to weather and temperature increases during the cold months. In contrast mortalities rates fall during warmer months. Researchers examining 74 million deaths across the globe from 1985-2012 found 7.3% were caused by temperatures cooler than the optimum compared to just 0.4% attributed to temperatures above the optimum. Extreme temperature events, both hot and cold only accounted for 0.9% of all deaths.
Likewise, a 2014 National Health Statistics reports found, “During 2006–2010, about 2,000 U.S. residents died each year from weather-related deaths. About 31% of these deaths were attributed to exposure to excessive natural heat, heat stroke, sun stroke; 63% were attributed to exposure to excessive natural cold, hypothermia, or both.” Similarly, according to the CDC , from 1979-1999, a total of 8015 deaths in the United States were heat related while 13,970 deaths were attributed to hypothermia. So why aren’t people listening to the science?
Global warming fear is based on speculation regards what could happen in the future if global average temperatures rose 2°F to 4°F. But scary predictions are not scientific fact until their hypotheses are tested and verified. Without time machines we cannot directly test predicted outcomes for the years 2050 or 2100. But we can observe the effects of a similar temperature change.
In the United States people have steadily migrated away from the cold Northeast to the warmer Southwest. In the Southwest they are exposed to higher average temperatures, temperatures equal to or greater than what global warming predicts they would endure if they remained in the Northeast. The good news, scientists determined that “migration from the Northeast to the Southwest accounts for 4% to 7% of the total gains in life expectancy experienced by the U.S. population over the past thirty years.” We can infer a similar benefit from global warming. A complementary study determined people that migrated to colder climates suffered ‘greater cardiovascular mortality” than people who remained in their native country.
Because the two major U.S. government agencies that track heat and cold deaths – NOAA and the CDC – differ sharply on which is the bigger killer, the public is rightfully confused. In contrast to the CDC results, NOAA argues heat is killing twice as many people as cold, but NOAA’s researchers have also been heavily invested in catastrophic global warming claims. By statistically adjusting the data via “seasonal detrending”, they remove the greater number of winter deaths in their analyses and just focus on extreme temperature deaths. They justify their adjustments arguing factors such as increased winter deaths due to flu season are not directly due to colder temperatures. But that obscures the health effects of temperature.
Colder temperatures reduce the effectiveness of our immune systems, which promotes influenza epidemics that may kill 34,000 to 60,000 people in a year. Because influenza season ends when temperatures warm, scientists are hoping warmer weather will similarly curtail the novel COVID-19 pandemic.
NOAA’s adjusted data focuses on deaths from heat waves and cold snaps. Indeed, there are is a greater spike in deaths during heat waves, but research suggests heat waves have a small long‑term effect due to a “harvesting effect”. Us elderly and health compromised people are most vulnerable to extreme weather and epidemics. The “harvesting effect” describes an event during which vulnerable people who would have likely died over the following months instead died “prematurely” during an extreme event. But mortality rates drop in the following months because the most vulnerable have already passed. Researchers have found because mortality rates fall during the months following a heat wave there is no long‑term population effect. In contrast, cold snaps do have long-term effects as researchers found no such “harvesting effect”.
Although alarming models and media narratives suggest global warming causes more extreme heat waves, scientific data disagrees. As the EPA’s heat wave index illustrates (below), there has been no increase in heat waves as the worse heat waves happened during the 1930s.
Fortunately, heat waves are short‑lived and foreseeable. Weather forecasters detect approaching high-pressure systems that bring cloudless skies that increase solar heating. High pressure systems inhibit rising air currents that normally carry heat away. And high‑pressure systems draw warm tropical air poleward on one flank while blocking cooler air from moving south. By forecasting extreme heat waves, scientists believe we can prevent most heat wave deaths. Urban heat effects are 2°F to 10°F warmer than the countryside, thus urban dwellers should be most careful. And because elderly people who lack air conditioning are most vulnerable and less mobile, we can make sure they are moved out of harm’s way.
Jim Steele is Director emeritus of San Francisco State’s Sierra Nevada Field Campus and authored Landscapes and Cycles: An Environmentalist’s Journey to Climate Skepticism
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wattsupwiththat--2020-03-23--Monday Mirthiness – Greta

Monday Mirthiness – Greta

Now that the # Coronvirus has taken hold and schools are closing globally ( along with everything else ) Josh @ @ @ @ @ minions who are stuck at home with parents , might be saying this right about @ @

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wattsupwiththat--2020-03-23--HKU marine biologist and international team unveil impacts of heatwave on reef fishes

The marine heatwave of 2016 was one of longest and hottest thermal anomalies recorded on the Great Barrier Reef in Australia , influencing multiple species of marine ectotherms , including coral reef fishes .
Dr Celia Schunter from School of Biological Sciences and the Swire Institute of Marine Science ( SWIMS ) , The University of Hong Kong ( HKU ) and a team of international scientists conducted a study attempting to understand the molecular response of five species to the 2016 heatwave conditions that killed a third of the Great Barrier Reef corals .
This is the world-first study @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a severe marine heatwave .
The results of the study were published in the journal Science Advances .
Marine heatwaves ( MHWs ) are elevated extreme temperatures in the oceans for an extended period of time , similar to an atmospheric heatwave .
These elevated temperatures can have a significant impact on marine life , possibly pushing the thermal limits of many organisms .
With the frequency and intensity of heatwaves predicted to increase in the future , this could have greater impacts on the performance of ectotherms , when compared to slight @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ To understand the challenges fish face under such conditions we used a molecular approach to evaluate how acute warming events directly affect reef fish communities in nature , ” said Dr Celia Schunter .
“ We chose to work with five different species which are commonly found on the reef to be able to understand differences in reactions among fish species with different life histories to get a broader overview of the reaction and impact.
” “ Our study shows that reef fishes are directly affected by heatwaves , but their responses @ @ @ @ @ @ @ co-author Associate Professor Jodie Rummer from the ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies at James Cook University ( Coral CoE at JCU ) .
Dr Rummer was part of the international team that studied changes in the expression of thousands of different genes in five species of coral reef fish , collected at different points before , during and after the 2016 heatwave .
“ Changes in gene expression can tell us how an animal responds physiologically to an environmental shock , such as a heatwave , ” said Dr Celia @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and SWIMS , one of the lead authors in the study .
“ We measured RNA levels in livers in the fish .
This can control when proteins are made and in what amount , and these proteins dictate how the cells of the body function .
We saw many genes change expression levels across the timepoints of a heatwave revealing important functions such as cellular stress response and changes in metabolic functions.
” Through these genetic analyses , the team identified species-specific physiological responses to the heightened temperatures .
“ Fast water @ @ @ @ @ @ @ demands in fishes , which are similar to what happens to an athlete doing intense exercises .
When water temperature increases , fishes have a higher demand for energy and oxygen , which leaves a signal that is measurable with genetic techniques .
This higher energy demand at warming can affect their reproduction , swimming and development , and that is why it is important to understand the response to warming.
” said Dr Moisés A Bernal , co-author of the study from Auburn University .
Interestingly , “ these patterns of gene @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the heatwave , ” said Dr Rummer .
“ This suggests that the physiological mechanisms the fish use to cope with the warmer waters changed as the heatwave progressed .
The results suggest fish populations are influenced by both the intensity of a heatwave and how long it lasts.
” This signals potential long-term consequences for the health of fish populations as extreme heat events increase in frequency , duration and magnitude under human-induced climate change .
At a species level , Dr Rummer says the responses varied in intensity .
Some fish @ @ @ @ @ @ @ spiny damselfish responded strongly to the warmer conditions , with changes in the expression of thousands of genes , suggesting it is particularly sensitive to heatwaves .
Other species appear to be more tolerant , with fewer changes in gene expression.
” said Dr Rummer .
Two of the five studies species studied can also be found in waters around Hong Kong and Southern China as well as many more closely related fish species providing also some context for possible effects for waters around Hong Kong .
The study provides a possible approach @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at risk under repeated heatwave conditions , said another co-author Professor Timothy Ravasi , from the Marine Climate Change Unit at the Okinawa Institute of Science and Technology Graduate University ( OIST ) .
“ This has ramifications for policy makers and for the fishing industry , because not all species will be equally affected .
We need to screen a large number of species to predict which will be sensitive and which will be more tolerant to warming waters and heatwaves.
” “ Over time , the fish may adapt to rising @ @ @ @ @ @ @ waters , ” Professor Ravasi said .
“ But these heatwaves are happening now , and it ’ s necessary to understand and consider the immediate consequences.
” In 2015 the South China Sea experienced a heatwave of a similar magnitude than the heatwave on the Great Barrier Reef studied here .
The coastal waters of Hong Kong and the South China Sea are predicted to experience more frequent and intense marine heatwave events as seen on the global scale .
It is now clear that these extreme events can have far-reaching effects @ @ @ @ @ @ @ implications on aquaculture and fishing industries Dr Celia Schunter urges the need for more research into the impacts of such events in the marine waters of Hong Kong to avert the potential collapse in the marine ecosystem and the industries relying on it .
‘ Species-specific molecular responses of wild coral reef fishes during a marine heatwave.
’ in Science Advances by Moisés A Bernal , Celia Schunter , Robert Lehmann , Damien J Lightfoot , Bridie J M Allan , Heather D Veilleux , Jodie L Rummer , Philip L Munday and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Dr Celia Schunter ’ s research , please visit : http : //www.celiaschunter.com/

The University of Hong Kong
The marine heatwave of 2016 was one of longest and hottest thermal anomalies recorded on the Great Barrier Reef in Australia, influencing multiple species of marine ectotherms, including coral reef fishes.
Dr Celia Schunter from School of Biological Sciences and the Swire Institute of Marine Science (SWIMS), The University of Hong Kong (HKU) and a team of international scientists conducted a study attempting to understand the molecular response of five species to the 2016 heatwave conditions that killed a third of the Great Barrier Reef corals. This is the world-first study tracking how wild fish populations respond to a severe marine heatwave. The results of the study were published in the journal Science Advances.
Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are elevated extreme temperatures in the oceans for an extended period of time, similar to an atmospheric heatwave. These elevated temperatures can have a significant impact on marine life, possibly pushing the thermal limits of many organisms. With the frequency and intensity of heatwaves predicted to increase in the future, this could have greater impacts on the performance of ectotherms, when compared to slight thermal increments over years or decades.
“To understand the challenges fish face under such conditions we used a molecular approach to evaluate how acute warming events directly affect reef fish communities in nature,” said Dr Celia Schunter. “We chose to work with five different species which are commonly found on the reef to be able to understand differences in reactions among fish species with different life histories to get a broader overview of the reaction and impact.”
“Our study shows that reef fishes are directly affected by heatwaves, but their responses vary greatly among species,” said co-author Associate Professor Jodie Rummer from the ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies at James Cook University (Coral CoE at JCU). Dr Rummer was part of the international team that studied changes in the expression of thousands of different genes in five species of coral reef fish, collected at different points before, during and after the 2016 heatwave.
“Changes in gene expression can tell us how an animal responds physiologically to an environmental shock, such as a heatwave,” said Dr Celia Schunter from HKU School of Biological Sciences and SWIMS, one of the lead authors in the study. “We measured RNA levels in livers in the fish. This can control when proteins are made and in what amount, and these proteins dictate how the cells of the body function. We saw many genes change expression levels across the timepoints of a heatwave revealing important functions such as cellular stress response and changes in metabolic functions.”
Through these genetic analyses, the team identified species-specific physiological responses to the heightened temperatures. “Fast water warming causes an increase of the metabolic demands in fishes, which are similar to what happens to an athlete doing intense exercises. When water temperature increases, fishes have a higher demand for energy and oxygen, which leaves a signal that is measurable with genetic techniques. This higher energy demand at warming can affect their reproduction, swimming and development, and that is why it is important to understand the response to warming.” said Dr Moisés A Bernal, co-author of the study from Auburn University.
Interestingly, “these patterns of gene expression also changed with the duration of the heatwave,” said Dr Rummer. “This suggests that the physiological mechanisms the fish use to cope with the warmer waters changed as the heatwave progressed. The results suggest fish populations are influenced by both the intensity of a heatwave and how long it lasts.” This signals potential long-term consequences for the health of fish populations as extreme heat events increase in frequency, duration and magnitude under human-induced climate change.
At a species level, Dr Rummer says the responses varied in intensity. Some fish struggled less than others. “The spiny damselfish responded strongly to the warmer conditions, with changes in the expression of thousands of genes, suggesting it is particularly sensitive to heatwaves. Other species appear to be more tolerant, with fewer changes in gene expression.” said Dr Rummer . Two of the five studies species studied can also be found in waters around Hong Kong and Southern China as well as many more closely related fish species providing also some context for possible effects for waters around Hong Kong.
The study provides a possible approach for predicting which fish species are most at risk under repeated heatwave conditions, said another co-author Professor Timothy Ravasi, from the Marine Climate Change Unit at the Okinawa Institute of Science and Technology Graduate University (OIST). “This has ramifications for policy makers and for the fishing industry, because not all species will be equally affected. We need to screen a large number of species to predict which will be sensitive and which will be more tolerant to warming waters and heatwaves.”
“Over time, the fish may adapt to rising temperatures, or even migrate to cooler waters,” Professor Ravasi said. “But these heatwaves are happening now, and it’s necessary to understand and consider the immediate consequences.”
In 2015 the South China Sea experienced a heatwave of a similar magnitude than the heatwave on the Great Barrier Reef studied here. The coastal waters of Hong Kong and the South China Sea are predicted to experience more frequent and intense marine heatwave events as seen on the global scale. It is now clear that these extreme events can have far-reaching effects on marine fishes, but also economic implications on aquaculture and fishing industries Dr Celia Schunter urges the need for more research into the impacts of such events in the marine waters of Hong Kong to avert the potential collapse in the marine ecosystem and the industries relying on it.
###
The paper:
‘Species-specific molecular responses of wild coral reef fishes during a marine heatwave.’ in Science Advances by Moisés A Bernal, Celia Schunter, Robert Lehmann, Damien J Lightfoot, Bridie J M Allan, Heather D Veilleux, Jodie L Rummer, Philip L Munday and Timothy Ravasi.’
Link of journal paper: https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/6/12/eaay3423
For more information about Dr Celia Schunter’s research, please visit: http://www.celiaschunter.com/
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wattsupwiththat--2020-03-23--EU Green Leader Explains Climate Change and Democracy, and Why Chinese People should Accept Their Pl

EU Green Leader Explains Climate Change and Democracy, and Why Chinese People should Accept Their Place

According to Valentin Dupouey , head of communications for the European Greens , a pan-European federation of green parties , a major overhaul of Democracy is required to force acceptance of the economic de-growth required to address the climate crisis .
He also thinks its important to explain to China that because of climate change , “ a Chinese average citizen … will never be able to reach the material lifestyle of a French minimum-wage worker.
“ Democracy and climate change : framing the question and setting a discussion ground I believe this broad framework boils down to three core @ @ @ @ @ @ @ react quickly enough to prevent the climate meltdown and societal collapse foreseen by scientists ?
2 ) Can democracy , human rights and the rule of law survive the climate meltdown if it can ’ t prevent it ?
And if , as I increasingly believe , the only solution will be a half-planned , half-forced degrowth : 3 ) Can democracy accompany degrowth and its societal impacts ?
The only assumption needed here is the belief that decoupling can not happen or will not happen fast enough – which in my opinion @ @ @ @ @ @ @ need to accept that continuous growth in the extraction of fossil energy is neither desirable ( because of the climate meltdown ) nor even physically possible ; there is increasing evidence showing that we are approaching the peak extraction of oil , and that we could be reaching it for other fossil fuels soon .
Controlled degrowth means being able to say to voters at the next electoral cycle : “ If we want to reduce our CO2 emissions , we need to decrease our GDP .
Therefore , we won ’ t @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to decide which needs and desires we want to live without first and which ones we want to safeguard .
You can ’ t have a starter , main dish and dessert anymore .
It ’ s either/or .
Which one do you want to keep ?
” It is unspeakable at the level of one country but it is even more unthinkable on a global scale .
We need to be able to tell a French minimum-wage worker that his lifestyle is not compatible with the planet ’ s boundaries , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to a Chinese average citizen that he will never be able to reach the material lifestyle of a French minimum-wage worker .
I ’ m glad the European greens put their head of communications on the case , a person with inferior communication skills might have made a total mess of the topic of climate rationing , by producing a stream thoughtless bombastic statements of breathtaking arrogance and insensitivity .
I don ’ t know why a European like Dupouey thinks decoupling CO2 from cheap energy is such a problem .
France , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is also the world leader in decoupling ; the French successfully decoupled economic growth from CO2 emissions in the 1970s , when they replaced most of their coal plants with nuclear power plants .
If the rest of the world copied the 1970s French nuclear program , global CO2 emissions would plummet by at least 25 % , likely a lot more .
As for Dupouey ’ s comments about Chinese workers needing to understand their position in life , that place being somewhere below the living standards of French workers , I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to the Middle Kingdom , explain his thinking to Chinese workers .
I ’ m sure they would be very moved by his words .

Reframing in Action
Guest essay by Eric Worrall
According to Valentin Dupouey, head of communications for the European Greens, a pan-European federation of green parties, a major overhaul of Democracy is required to force acceptance of the economic de-growth required to address the climate crisis.
He also thinks its important to explain to China that because of climate change, “a Chinese average citizen … will never be able to reach the material lifestyle of a French minimum-wage worker.“
DEMOCRACY NEEDS A COPERNICAN REVOLUTION TO SURVIVE CLIMATE CHANGE 22 March, by Valentin Dupouey Democracy and climate change: framing the question and setting a discussion ground I believe this broad framework boils down to three core questions: 1) Can democratic infrastructures react quickly enough to prevent the climate meltdown and societal collapse foreseen by scientists? 2) Can democracy, human rights and the rule of law survive the climate meltdown if it can’t prevent it? And if, as I increasingly believe, the only solution will be a half-planned, half-forced degrowth: 3) Can democracy accompany degrowth and its societal impacts? … Scenario 2: Half-forced, half-controlled degrowth The only assumption needed here is the belief that decoupling cannot happen or will not happen fast enough – which in my opinion is much more likely. We also need to accept that continuous growth in the extraction of fossil energy is neither desirable (because of the climate meltdown) nor even physically possible; there is increasing evidence showing that we are approaching the peak extraction of oil, and that we could be reaching it for other fossil fuels soon. … Controlled degrowth means being able to say to voters at the next electoral cycle: “If we want to reduce our CO2 emissions, we need to decrease our GDP. Therefore, we won’t promise you more. We will need to decide which needs and desires we want to live without first and which ones we want to safeguard. You can’t have a starter, main dish and dessert anymore. It’s either/or. Which one do you want to keep?” It is unspeakable at the level of one country but it is even more unthinkable on a global scale. We need to be able to tell a French minimum-wage worker that his lifestyle is not compatible with the planet’s boundaries, and we need to be able to say to a Chinese average citizen that he will never be able to reach the material lifestyle of a French minimum-wage worker. … Read more: https://www.thenewfederalist.eu/democracy-needs-a-copernican-revolution-to-survive-climate-change?lang=fr
I’m glad the European greens put their head of communications on the case, a person with inferior communication skills might have made a total mess of the topic of climate rationing, by producing a stream thoughtless bombastic statements of breathtaking arrogance and insensitivity.
I don’t know why a European like Dupouey thinks decoupling CO2 from cheap energy is such a problem. France, a leading member of the EU, is also the world leader in decoupling; the French successfully decoupled economic growth from CO2 emissions in the 1970s, when they replaced most of their coal plants with nuclear power plants.
If the rest of the world copied the 1970s French nuclear program, global CO2 emissions would plummet by at least 25%, likely a lot more.
As for Dupouey’s comments about Chinese workers needing to understand their position in life, that place being somewhere below the living standards of French workers, I hope Dupouey is considering a personal visit to the Middle Kingdom, explain his thinking to Chinese workers. I’m sure they would be very moved by his words.
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wattsupwiththat--2020-03-24--Chandra Data Tests ‘Theory of Everything’

One of the biggest ideas in physics is the possibility that all known forces , particles , and interactions can be connected in one framework .
String theory is arguably the best-known proposal for a “ theory of everything ” that would tie together our understanding of the physical universe .
Despite having many different versions of string theory circulating throughout the physics community for decades , there have been very few experimental tests .
Astronomers using NASA ’ s Chandra X-ray Observatory , however , have now made a significant step forward in this area .
By searching through @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the universe held together by gravity , researchers were able to hunt for a specific particle that many models of string theory predict should exist .
While the resulting non-detection does not rule out string theory altogether , it does deliver a blow to certain models within that family of ideas .
“ Until recently I had no idea just how much X-ray astronomers bring to the table when it comes to string theory , but we could play a major role , ” said Christopher Reynolds of the University of Cambridge in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ study .
“ If these particles are eventually detected it would change physics forever.
” The particle that Reynolds and his colleagues were searching for is called an “ axion.
” These as-yet-undetected particles should have extraordinarily low masses .
Scientists do not know the precise mass range , but many theories feature axion masses ranging from about a millionth of the mass of an electron down to zero mass .
Some scientists think that axions could explain the mystery of dark matter , which accounts for the vast majority of matter in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ these ultra-low-mass particles would be that they might sometimes convert into photons ( that is , packets of light ) as they pass through magnetic fields .
The opposite may also hold true : photons may also be converted into axions under certain conditions .
How often this switch occurs depends on how easily they make this conversion , in other words on their “ convertibility.
” Some scientists have proposed the existence of a broader class of ultra-low-mass particles with similar properties to axions .
Axions would have a single convertibility value @ @ @ @ @ @ @ particles ” would have a range of convertibility at the same mass .
“ While it may sound like a long shot to look for tiny particles like axions in gigantic structures like galaxy clusters , they are actually great places to look , ” said co-author David Marsh of Stockholm University in Sweden .
“ Galaxy clusters contain magnetic fields over giant distances , and they also often contain bright X-ray sources .
Together these properties enhance the chances that conversion of axion-like particles would be detectable.
” To look for signs @ @ @ @ @ @ @ team of astronomers examined over five days of Chandra observations of X-rays from material falling towards the supermassive black hole in the center of the Perseus galaxy cluster .
They studied the Chandra spectrum , or the amount of X-ray emission observed at different energies , of this source .
The long observation and the bright X-ray source gave a spectrum with enough sensitivity to have shown distortions that scientists expected if axion-like particles were present .
The lack of detection of such distortions allowed the researchers to rule out the presence of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ mass range their observations were sensitive to , below about a millionth of a billionth of an electron ’ s mass .
“ Our research doesn ’ t rule out the existence of these particles , but it definitely doesn ’ t help their case , ” said co-author Helen Russell of the University of Nottingham in the UK .
“ These constraints dig into the range of properties suggested by string theory , and may help string theorists weed their theories.
” The latest result was about three to four times more @ @ @ @ @ @ @ axion-like particles , which came from Chandra observations of the supermassive black hole in M87 .
This Perseus study is also about a hundred times more powerful than current measurements that can be performed in laboratories here on Earth for the range of masses that they have considered .
Clearly , one possible interpretation of this work is that axion-like particles do not exist .
Another explanation is that the particles have even lower convertibility values than this observation ’ s detection limit , and lower than some particle physicists have expected .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ probed with the Chandra data .
A paper describing these results appeared in the February 10th , 2020 issue of The Astrophysical Journal and is available online .
In addition to Reynolds , Marsh , and Russell , the authors of this paper are Andrew C. Fabian , also from the University of Cambridge , Robyn Smith from the University of Maryland in College Park , Maryland , Francesco Tombesi from the University of Rome in Italy , and Sylvain Veilleux , also from the University of Maryland .
NASA ’ s Marshall @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory ’ s Chandra X-ray Center controls science and flight operations from Cambridge and Burlington , Massachusetts .
For more Chandra images , multimedia and related materials , visit :

March 19, 2020
One of the biggest ideas in physics is the possibility that all known forces, particles, and interactions can be connected in one framework. String theory is arguably the best-known proposal for a “theory of everything” that would tie together our understanding of the physical universe.
Despite having many different versions of string theory circulating throughout the physics community for decades, there have been very few experimental tests. Astronomers using NASA’s Chandra X-ray Observatory, however, have now made a significant step forward in this area.
By searching through galaxy clusters, the largest structures in the universe held together by gravity, researchers were able to hunt for a specific particle that many models of string theory predict should exist. While the resulting non-detection does not rule out string theory altogether, it does deliver a blow to certain models within that family of ideas.
“Until recently I had no idea just how much X-ray astronomers bring to the table when it comes to string theory, but we could play a major role,” said Christopher Reynolds of the University of Cambridge in the United Kingdom, who led the study. “If these particles are eventually detected it would change physics forever.”
The particle that Reynolds and his colleagues were searching for is called an “axion.” These as-yet-undetected particles should have extraordinarily low masses. Scientists do not know the precise mass range, but many theories feature axion masses ranging from about a millionth of the mass of an electron down to zero mass. Some scientists think that axions could explain the mystery of dark matter, which accounts for the vast majority of matter in the universe.
One unusual property of these ultra-low-mass particles would be that they might sometimes convert into photons (that is, packets of light) as they pass through magnetic fields. The opposite may also hold true: photons may also be converted into axions under certain conditions. How often this switch occurs depends on how easily they make this conversion, in other words on their “convertibility.”
Some scientists have proposed the existence of a broader class of ultra-low-mass particles with similar properties to axions. Axions would have a single convertibility value at each mass, but “axion-like particles” would have a range of convertibility at the same mass.
“While it may sound like a long shot to look for tiny particles like axions in gigantic structures like galaxy clusters, they are actually great places to look,” said co-author David Marsh of Stockholm University in Sweden. “Galaxy clusters contain magnetic fields over giant distances, and they also often contain bright X-ray sources. Together these properties enhance the chances that conversion of axion-like particles would be detectable.”
To look for signs of conversion by axion-like particles, the team of astronomers examined over five days of Chandra observations of X-rays from material falling towards the supermassive black hole in the center of the Perseus galaxy cluster. They studied the Chandra spectrum, or the amount of X-ray emission observed at different energies, of this source. The long observation and the bright X-ray source gave a spectrum with enough sensitivity to have shown distortions that scientists expected if axion-like particles were present.
The lack of detection of such distortions allowed the researchers to rule out the presence of most types of axion-like particles in the mass range their observations were sensitive to, below about a millionth of a billionth of an electron’s mass.
“Our research doesn’t rule out the existence of these particles, but it definitely doesn’t help their case,” said co-author Helen Russell of the University of Nottingham in the UK. “These constraints dig into the range of properties suggested by string theory, and may help string theorists weed their theories.”
The latest result was about three to four times more sensitive than the previous best search for axion-like particles, which came from Chandra observations of the supermassive black hole in M87. This Perseus study is also about a hundred times more powerful than current measurements that can be performed in laboratories here on Earth for the range of masses that they have considered.
Clearly, one possible interpretation of this work is that axion-like particles do not exist. Another explanation is that the particles have even lower convertibility values than this observation’s detection limit, and lower than some particle physicists have expected. They also could have higher masses than probed with the Chandra data.
A paper describing these results appeared in the February 10th, 2020 issue of The Astrophysical Journal and is available online. In addition to Reynolds, Marsh, and Russell, the authors of this paper are Andrew C. Fabian, also from the University of Cambridge, Robyn Smith from the University of Maryland in College Park, Maryland, Francesco Tombesi from the University of Rome in Italy, and Sylvain Veilleux, also from the University of Maryland.
NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center manages the Chandra program. The Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory’s Chandra X-ray Center controls science and flight operations from Cambridge and Burlington, Massachusetts.
Image credit: NASA/CXC/Cambridge Univ./C.S. Reynolds
Read more from NASA’s Chandra X-ray Observatory.
For more Chandra images, multimedia and related materials, visit:
http://www.nasa.gov/chandra
Last Updated: March 19, 2020
Editor: Lee Mohon
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wattsupwiththat--2020-03-24--UN: Embrace the Paris Agreement to Solve the Covid-19 Crisis

Speech by the UN Secretary General , urging countries to embrace the Paris Agreement and United Nations sustainability agenda as part of their response to the Covid-19 crisis .
We are facing a global health crisis unlike any in the 75-year history of the United Nations — one that is spreading human suffering , infecting the global economy and upending people ’ s lives .
A global recession – perhaps of record dimensions – is a near certainty .
The International Labour Organization ( ILO ) has just reported that workers around the world could lose as much as 3.4 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ end of this year .
This is , above all , a human crisis that calls for solidarity .
Our human family is stressed and the social fabric is being torn .
People are suffering , sick and scared .
Current responses at the country level will not address the global scale and complexity of the crisis .
This is a moment that demands coordinated , decisive , and innovative policy action from the world ’ s leading economies .
We must recognize that the poorest and most vulnerable — especially women — @ @ @ @ @ @ @ welcome the decision by G20 leaders to convene an emergency summit next week to respond to the epic challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic – and I look forward to taking part .
My central message is clear : We are in an unprecedented situation and the normal rules no longer apply .
We can not resort to the usual tools in such unusual times .
The creativity of the response must match the unique nature of the crisis – and the magnitude of the response must match its scale .
Our world @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at war with a virus .
COVID-19 is killing people , as well as attacking the real economy at its core – trade , supply chains , businesses , jobs .
Entire countries and cities are in lockdown .
Borders are closing .
Companies are struggling to stay in business and families are simply struggling to stay afloat .
But in managing this crisis , we also have a unique opportunity .
Done right , we can steer the recovery toward a more sustainable and inclusive path .
But poorly coordinated policies risk @ @ @ @ @ @ @ already unsustainable inequalities , reversing hard-won development gains and poverty reduction .
I call on world leaders to come together and offer an urgent and coordinated response to this global crisis .
I see three critical areas for action : Many countries have exceeded the capacity to care for even mild cases in dedicated health facilities , with many unable to respond to the enormous needs of the elderly .
Even in the wealthiest countries , we see health systems buckling under pressure .
Health spending must be scaled up right away to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ demand — expanding testing , bolstering facilities , supporting health care workers , and ensuring adequate supplies – with full respect for human rights and without stigma .
It has been proven that the virus can be contained .
It must be contained .
If we let the virus spread like wildfire – especially in the most vulnerable regions of the world — it would kill millions of people .
And we need to immediately move away from a situation where each country is undertaking its own health strategies to one that ensures @ @ @ @ @ @ @ global response , including helping countries that are less prepared to tackle the crisis .
Governments must give the strongest support to the multilateral effort to fight the virus , led by the World Health Organization ( WHO ) , whose appeals must be fully met .
The health catastrophe makes clear that we are only as strong as the weakest health system .
Global solidarity is not only a moral imperative , it is in everyone ’ s interests .
SECOND , WE MUST FOCUS ON THE SOCIAL IMPACT AND THE ECONOMIC @ @ @ @ @ @ @ financial crisis , injecting capital in the financial sector alone is not the answer .
This is not a banking crisis – and indeed , banks must be part of the solution .
And it is not an ordinary shock in supply and demand ; it is a shock to society as a whole .
The liquidity of the financial system must be guaranteed , and banks must use their resilience to support their customers .
But let ’ s not forget this is essentially a human crisis .
Most fundamentally , we @ @ @ @ @ @ @ workers , small and medium enterprises and the most vulnerable .
And that means wage support , insurance , social protection , preventing bankruptcies and job loss .
And that also means designing fiscal and monetary responses to ensure that the burden does not fall on those who can least afford it .
The recovery must not come on the backs of the poorest – and we can not create a legion of new poor .
We need to get resources directly in the hands of people .
A number of countries are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cash transfers and universal income .
We need to take it to the next level to ensure support reaches those entirely dependent on the informal economy and countries less able to respond .
Remittances are a lifeline in the developing world – especially now .
Countries have already committed to reduce remittance fees to 3 percent , much below the current average levels .
The crisis requires us to go further , getting as close to zero as possible .
In addition , G20 leaders have taken steps to protect their own citizens @ @ @ @ @ @ @ We must apply that same logic to the most vulnerable countries in our global village and alleviate their debt burden .
Across the board , we need a commitment to ensure adequate financial facilities to support countries in difficulties .
The IMF , the World Bank and other International Financial Institutions play a key role .
The private sector is essential to seeking and creating investment opportunities and protecting jobs .
And we must refrain from the temptation of resorting to protectionism .
This is the time to dismantle trade barriers and re-establish @ @ @ @ @ @ @ picture , disruptions to society are having a profound impact .
We must address the effects of this crisis on women .
The world ’ s women are disproportionally carrying the burden at home and in the wider economy .
Children are also paying a heavy price .
More than 800 million children are out of school right now — many of whom rely on school to provide their only meal .
We must ensure that all children have access to food and equal access to learning – bridging the digital divide and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ people ’ s lives are disrupted , isolated and upturned , we must prevent this pandemic from turning into a crisis of mental health .
Young people will be most at risk .
The world needs to keep going with core support to programmes for the most vulnerable , including through UN-coordinated humanitarian and refugee response plans .
Humanitarian needs must not be sacrificed .
THIRD , AND FINALLY , WE HAVE A RESPONSIBILITY TO “ RECOVER BETTER ” .
The 2008 financial crisis demonstrated clearly that countries with robust social protection systems @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from its impact .
We must ensure that lessons are learned and that this crisis provides a watershed moment for health emergency preparedness and for investment in critical 21st century public services and the effective delivery of global public goods .
We have a framework for action – the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and the Paris Agreement on Climate Change .
We must keep our promises for people and planet .
The United Nations – and our global network of country offices — will support all governments to ensure that the global @ @ @ @ @ @ @ stronger from this crisis .
That is the logic of the Decade of Action to deliver the Sustainable Development Goals ( SDGs ) .
More than ever before , we need solidarity , hope and the political will to see this crisis through together .

Guest essay by Eric Worrall
Speech by the UN Secretary General, urging countries to embrace the Paris Agreement and United Nations sustainability agenda as part of their response to the Covid-19 crisis.
19 March 2020
Secretary-General’s opening remarks at virtual press encounter on COVID-19 Crisis
António Guterres
We are facing a global health crisis unlike any in the 75-year history of the United Nations — one that is spreading human suffering, infecting the global economy and upending people’s lives.
A global recession – perhaps of record dimensions – is a near certainty.
The International Labour Organization (ILO) has just reported that workers around the world could lose as much as 3.4 trillion U.S. dollars in income by the end of this year.
This is, above all, a human crisis that calls for solidarity.
Our human family is stressed and the social fabric is being torn. People are suffering, sick and scared.
Current responses at the country level will not address the global scale and complexity of the crisis.
This is a moment that demands coordinated, decisive, and innovative policy action from the world’s leading economies. We must recognize that the poorest and most vulnerable — especially women — will be the hardest hit.
I welcome the decision by G20 leaders to convene an emergency summit next week to respond to the epic challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic – and I look forward to taking part.
My central message is clear: We are in an unprecedented situation and the normal rules no longer apply. We cannot resort to the usual tools in such unusual times.
The creativity of the response must match the unique nature of the crisis – and the magnitude of the response must match its scale.
Our world faces a common enemy. We are at war with a virus.
COVID-19 is killing people, as well as attacking the real economy at its core – trade, supply chains, businesses, jobs. Entire countries and cities are in lockdown. Borders are closing. Companies are struggling to stay in business and families are simply struggling to stay afloat.
But in managing this crisis, we also have a unique opportunity.
Done right, we can steer the recovery toward a more sustainable and inclusive path. But poorly coordinated policies risk locking in — or even worsening — already unsustainable inequalities, reversing hard-won development gains and poverty reduction.
I call on world leaders to come together and offer an urgent and coordinated response to this global crisis.
I see three critical areas for action:
FIRST, TACKLING THE HEALTH EMERGENCY.
Many countries have exceeded the capacity to care for even mild cases in dedicated health facilities, with many unable to respond to the enormous needs of the elderly.
Even in the wealthiest countries, we see health systems buckling under pressure.
Health spending must be scaled up right away to meet urgent needs and the surge in demand — expanding testing, bolstering facilities, supporting health care workers, and ensuring adequate supplies – with full respect for human rights and without stigma.
It has been proven that the virus can be contained. It must be contained.
If we let the virus spread like wildfire – especially in the most vulnerable regions of the world — it would kill millions of people.
And we need to immediately move away from a situation where each country is undertaking its own health strategies to one that ensures, in full transparency, a coordinated global response, including helping countries that are less prepared to tackle the crisis.
Governments must give the strongest support to the multilateral effort to fight the virus, led by the World Health Organization (WHO), whose appeals must be fully met.
The health catastrophe makes clear that we are only as strong as the weakest health system.
Global solidarity is not only a moral imperative, it is in everyone’s interests.
SECOND, WE MUST FOCUS ON THE SOCIAL IMPACT AND THE ECONOMIC RESPONSE AND RECOVERY.
Unlike the 2008 financial crisis, injecting capital in the financial sector alone is not the answer. This is not a banking crisis – and indeed, banks must be part of the solution.
And it is not an ordinary shock in supply and demand; it is a shock to society as a whole.
The liquidity of the financial system must be guaranteed, and banks must use their resilience to support their customers.
But let’s not forget this is essentially a human crisis.
Most fundamentally, we need to focus on people — low-wage workers, small and medium enterprises and the most vulnerable.
And that means wage support, insurance, social protection, preventing bankruptcies and job loss.
And that also means designing fiscal and monetary responses to ensure that the burden does not fall on those who can least afford it.
The recovery must not come on the backs of the poorest – and we cannot create a legion of new poor.
We need to get resources directly in the hands of people. A number of countries are taking up social protection initiatives such as cash transfers and universal income.
We need to take it to the next level to ensure support reaches those entirely dependent on the informal economy and countries less able to respond.
Remittances are a lifeline in the developing world – especially now. Countries have already committed to reduce remittance fees to 3 percent, much below the current average levels. The crisis requires us to go further, getting as close to zero as possible.
In addition, G20 leaders have taken steps to protect their own citizens and economies by waiving interest payments. We must apply that same logic to the most vulnerable countries in our global village and alleviate their debt burden.
Across the board, we need a commitment to ensure adequate financial facilities to support countries in difficulties. The IMF, the World Bank and other International Financial Institutions play a key role. The private sector is essential to seeking and creating investment opportunities and protecting jobs.
And we must refrain from the temptation of resorting to protectionism. This is the time to dismantle trade barriers and re-establish supply chains.
Looking at the broader picture, disruptions to society are having a profound impact.
We must address the effects of this crisis on women. The world’s women are disproportionally carrying the burden at home and in the wider economy.
Children are also paying a heavy price. More than 800 million children are out of school right now — many of whom rely on school to provide their only meal. We must ensure that all children have access to food and equal access to learning – bridging the digital divide and reducing the costs of connectivity.
As people’s lives are disrupted, isolated and upturned, we must prevent this pandemic from turning into a crisis of mental health. Young people will be most at risk.
The world needs to keep going with core support to programmes for the most vulnerable, including through UN-coordinated humanitarian and refugee response plans. Humanitarian needs must not be sacrificed.
THIRD, AND FINALLY, WE HAVE A RESPONSIBILITY TO “RECOVER BETTER”.
The 2008 financial crisis demonstrated clearly that countries with robust social protection systems suffered the least and recovered most quickly from its impact.
We must ensure that lessons are learned and that this crisis provides a watershed moment for health emergency preparedness and for investment in critical 21st century public services and the effective delivery of global public goods.
We have a framework for action – the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and the Paris Agreement on Climate Change. We must keep our promises for people and planet.
The United Nations – and our global network of country offices — will support all governments to ensure that the global economy and the people we serve emerge stronger from this crisis.
That is the logic of the Decade of Action to deliver the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
More than ever before, we need solidarity, hope and the political will to see this crisis through together.
Thank you.


wattsupwiththat--2020-03-24--Ships’ emissions create measurable regional change in clouds

A container ship leaves a trail of white clouds in its wake that can linger in the air for hours .
This puffy line is not just exhaust from the engine , but a change in the clouds that ’ s caused by small airborne particles of pollution .
New research led by the University of Washington is the first to measure this phenomenon ’ s effect over years and at a regional scale .
Satellite data over a shipping lane in the south Atlantic show that the ships modify clouds to block an additional 2 Watts of solar energy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ square meter of ocean surface near the shipping lane .
The result implies that globally , cloud changes caused by particles from all forms of industrial pollution block 1 Watt of solar energy per square meter of Earth ’ s surface , masking almost a third of the present-day warming from greenhouse gases .
The open-access study was published March 24 in AGU Advances , a journal of the American Geophysical Union .
“ In climate models , if you simulate the world with sulfur emissions from shipping , and you simulate the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a pretty sizable cooling effect from changes in the model clouds due to shipping , ” said first author Michael Diamond , a UW doctoral student in atmospheric sciences .
“ But because there ’ s so much natural variability it ’ s been hard to see this effect in observations of the real world.
” The new study uses observations from 2003 to 2015 in spring , the cloudiest season , over the shipping route between Europe and South Africa .
This path is also part of a popular open-ocean shipping route @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in exhaust from burning fossil fuels creates “ seeds ” on which water vapor in the air can condense into cloud droplets .
More particles of airborne sulfate or other material leads to clouds with more small droplets , compared to the same amount of water condensed into fewer , bigger droplets .
This makes the clouds brighter , or more reflective .
Past attempts to measure this effect from ships had focused on places where the wind blows across the shipping lane , in order to compare the “ clean ” area @ @ @ @ @ @ @ downstream .
But in this study researchers focused on an area that had previously been excluded : a place where the wind blows along the shipping lane , keeping pollution concentrated in that small area .
The study analyzed cloud properties detected over 12 years by the MODIS instrument on NASA satellites and the amount of reflected sunlight at the top of the atmosphere from the CERES group of satellite instruments .
The authors compared cloud properties inside the shipping route with an estimate of what those cloud properties would have been in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from nearby , unpolluted areas .
“ The difference inside the shipping lane is small enough that we need about six years of data to confirm that it is real , ” said co-author Hannah Director , a UW doctoral student in statistics .
“ However , if this small change occurred worldwide , it would be enough to affect global temperatures.
” Once they could measure the ship emissions ’ effect on solar radiation , the researchers used that number to estimate how much cloud brightening from all industrial pollution has affected @ @ @ @ @ @ @ they found changes in low clouds due to pollution from all sources block 1 Watt per square meter of solar energy — compared to the roughly 3 Watts per square meter trapped today by the greenhouse gases also emitted by industrial activities .
In other words , without the cooling effect of pollution-seeded clouds , Earth might have already warmed by 1.5 degrees Celsius ( 2.7 F ) , a change that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projects would have significant societal impacts .
( For comparison , today the Earth is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ C ( 1.8 F ) since the late 1800s . )
“ I think the biggest contribution of this study is our ability to generalize , to calculate a global assessment of the overall impact of sulfate pollution on low clouds , ” said co-author Rob Wood , a UW professor of atmospheric sciences .
The results also have implications for one possible mechanism of deliberate climate intervention .
They suggest that strategies to temporarily slow global warming by spraying salt particles to make low-level marine clouds more reflective , known as marine @ @ @ @ @ @ @ But they also imply these changes could take years to be easily observed .
“ What this study doesn ’ t tell us at all is : Is marine cloud brightening a good idea ?
Should we do it ?
There ’ s a lot more research that needs to go into that , including from the social sciences and humanities , ” Diamond said .
“ It does tell us that these effects are possible — and on a more cautionary note , that these effects might be difficult to confidently detect.
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ a UW research scientist in atmospheric sciences , and Anna Possner at Goethe University in Frankfurt .
The research was funded by NASA and the National Science Foundation .

A container ship leaves a trail of white clouds in its wake that can linger in the air for hours. This puffy line is not just exhaust from the engine, but a change in the clouds that’s caused by small airborne particles of pollution.
New research led by the University of Washington is the first to measure this phenomenon’s effect over years and at a regional scale. Satellite data over a shipping lane in the south Atlantic show that the ships modify clouds to block an additional 2 Watts of solar energy, on average, from reaching each square meter of ocean surface near the shipping lane.
The result implies that globally, cloud changes caused by particles from all forms of industrial pollution block 1 Watt of solar energy per square meter of Earth’s surface, masking almost a third of the present-day warming from greenhouse gases. The open-access study was published March 24 in AGU Advances, a journal of the American Geophysical Union.
“In climate models, if you simulate the world with sulfur emissions from shipping, and you simulate the world without these emissions, there is a pretty sizable cooling effect from changes in the model clouds due to shipping,” said first author Michael Diamond, a UW doctoral student in atmospheric sciences. “But because there’s so much natural variability it’s been hard to see this effect in observations of the real world.”
The new study uses observations from 2003 to 2015 in spring, the cloudiest season, over the shipping route between Europe and South Africa. This path is also part of a popular open-ocean shipping route between Europe and Asia.
Small particles in exhaust from burning fossil fuels creates “seeds” on which water vapor in the air can condense into cloud droplets. More particles of airborne sulfate or other material leads to clouds with more small droplets, compared to the same amount of water condensed into fewer, bigger droplets. This makes the clouds brighter, or more reflective.
Past attempts to measure this effect from ships had focused on places where the wind blows across the shipping lane, in order to compare the “clean” area upwind with the “polluted” area downstream. But in this study researchers focused on an area that had previously been excluded: a place where the wind blows along the shipping lane, keeping pollution concentrated in that small area.
The study analyzed cloud properties detected over 12 years by the MODIS instrument on NASA satellites and the amount of reflected sunlight at the top of the atmosphere from the CERES group of satellite instruments. The authors compared cloud properties inside the shipping route with an estimate of what those cloud properties would have been in the absence of shipping based on statistics from nearby, unpolluted areas.
“The difference inside the shipping lane is small enough that we need about six years of data to confirm that it is real,” said co-author Hannah Director, a UW doctoral student in statistics. “However, if this small change occurred worldwide, it would be enough to affect global temperatures.”
Once they could measure the ship emissions’ effect on solar radiation, the researchers used that number to estimate how much cloud brightening from all industrial pollution has affected the climate overall.
Averaged globally, they found changes in low clouds due to pollution from all sources block 1 Watt per square meter of solar energy — compared to the roughly 3 Watts per square meter trapped today by the greenhouse gases also emitted by industrial activities. In other words, without the cooling effect of pollution-seeded clouds, Earth might have already warmed by 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 F), a change that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projects would have significant societal impacts. (For comparison, today the Earth is estimated to have warmed by approximately 1 C (1.8 F) since the late 1800s.)
“I think the biggest contribution of this study is our ability to generalize, to calculate a global assessment of the overall impact of sulfate pollution on low clouds,” said co-author Rob Wood, a UW professor of atmospheric sciences.
The results also have implications for one possible mechanism of deliberate climate intervention. They suggest that strategies to temporarily slow global warming by spraying salt particles to make low-level marine clouds more reflective, known as marine cloud brightening, might be effective. But they also imply these changes could take years to be easily observed.
“What this study doesn’t tell us at all is: Is marine cloud brightening a good idea? Should we do it? There’s a lot more research that needs to go into that, including from the social sciences and humanities,” Diamond said. “It does tell us that these effects are possible — and on a more cautionary note, that these effects might be difficult to confidently detect.”
###
Other co-authors are Ryan Eastman, a UW research scientist in atmospheric sciences, and Anna Possner at Goethe University in Frankfurt. The research was funded by NASA and the National Science Foundation.
From EurekAlert!
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The Italian Connection

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach [ Note updates at the end ] Since the earliest days of the current pandemic , Italy has been the scary member of the family that you absolutely don ’ t want to emulate , the one cousin that gets into really bad trouble .
The Italians have the highest rate of deaths from the COVID-19 coronavirus , and their numbers continue to climb .
Here ’ s the situation today .
Figure 1 .
Deaths from the COVID-19 coronavirus expressed as deaths per ten million of the country population .
Percentages of the total @ @ @ @ @ @ @ blue .
All countries are aligned at the date of their first reported death .
Most recent daily chart and charts of previous days are available by going here and scrolling down .
Italy , with over six thousand dead , is up well into the blue range .
This is the range of annual deaths from the flu in the US .
If the US coronavirus patients were dying at the same rate as in Italy , we ’ d have 38,000 coronavirus deaths by now in addition to the same number @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , there has been much debate about why the Italian death rate is so high .
People have suggested that it ’ s because they have one of the older populations in Europe .
Others have noted that they often live in extended families .
Some say it ’ s high numbers of smokers and polluted air .
And some have pointed to their social habits that involve touching , kissing cheeks , personal contact during church rituals , and the like .
But we haven ’ t had good data to take @ @ @ @ @ @ @ or at least I hadn ’ t seen any .
In the comments to my post entitled END THE AMERICAN LOCKDOWN , wherein I passionately advocate just exactly that , I was given a link by a web friend , Mary Ballon , hat tip to her .
It ’ s a report by a Swiss medical doctor about the COVID-19 deaths in Italy , well worth reading .
And in that document , there ’ s a further link to an Italian Government report .
It ’ s in Italian of course @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that ’ s what they actually speak over there , who knew ?
They reported on the statistics of a large sample of the Italian deaths ( 355 out of 2003 total deaths at the time of the report ) .
I got it , and the numbers are very revealing .
Let me start with the age distribution of the 2,003 Italians who had died at the time of the report .
Figure 2 shows that it ’ s almost entirely old people .
Figure 2 .
Age of 2,003 Italians who @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Out of the 2,003 deaths , seventeen were people under fifty , and only 5 people under thirty died , while almost two hundred deaths were of people over 90 .
I ’ d read that the people dying in Italy were old , but I didn ’ t realize quite how old they actually are … One thing I learned on this voyage was that the Italians distinguished between dying FROM the virus on the one hand , and dying WITH the virus on the other .
Once I looked at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ victims , however , I could see why they had to do that .
Figure 3 shows the generous apportionment of serious diseases and conditions among the unfortunates .
Figure 3 .
Numbers of diseases in the sample of 355 Italians who had COVID-19 at the time of their death .
WOW !
Yeah , they all had COVID-19 .
But three-quarters of them also had hypertension , a third had diabetes , a third had ischemic heart disease , a quarter of them had atrial fibrillation tossing clots into the bloodstream , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ As you can see from Figure 3 , some people must have had more than one other disease besides COVID-19 .
Figure 4 shows the breakdown of the number of other diseases per patient .
Figure 4 .
Other diseases ( comorbidities ) of a sample of 355 of the 2,003 Italians who had COVID-19 at the time of their death .
For me , this was the most surprising finding of the entire study .
Of all 355 people who died , only three did not have any of the diseases listed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of this as a whole picture , I had a curious thought about who they were representing .
I thought … consider the characteristics of the people who died : • More of the patients were over 90 than were under 60 .
• All but three of them had at least one other disease , so basically all of them were already sick .
• Three-quarters of them had two other diseases , and half of them had three or more other diseases .
Half !
My thought was … that ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the street .
That ’ s not a sample of an Italian family .
I was forced to a curious conclusion , both discouraging and encouraging .
It is that most of these diseases were probably not community-acquired .
Instead , I would hazard a guess that most of them go by the curious name of “ nosocomial ” infections , viz : Here ’ s what I suspect .
I think that the COVID-19 disease got established in a couple of areas in Italy well before anyone even knew the disease @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Chinese recognized it as a novel disease .
And in some fashion , it got into the medical system .
Doesn ’ t matter how .
But once there , it was spread invisibly to other patients , in particular the oldest and weakest of the patients .
It went from patient to patient , from patient to visitor and back again , and it was also spread by everyone in the hospital from administrators to doctors and nurses to janitors .
In many , perhaps most cases , they didn ’ t @ @ @ @ @ @ @ they were indeed infectious .
And that ’ s why the pattern of the Italian deaths is so curious , and their number is so much larger than the rest of the world .
It ’ s not a cross-section of the general population .
It ’ s a cross-section of people who were already quite sick , sick enough that they were already visiting doctors and having procedures or being bedridden in hospitals .
It was 85-year-olds with three diseases .
And it ’ s also why the death rate in Italy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ill .
I can see why the Italians are distinguishing between dying FROM the virus and dying WITH the virus .
As I said , this is both discouraging and encouraging .
It ’ s discouraging because getting the virus out of a modern medical facility and a dispersed medical system isn ’ t easy .
Italy has a big job ahead .
And it ’ s discouraging because it means that the medical personnel who are so needed for the fight are getting the disease as well .
Very likely they won @ @ @ @ @ @ @ they will be hors de combat for three weeks or so .
No bueno .
On the other hand , it is encouraging in a couple of aspects .
First , it lets us know what we need to do to prevent the Italian outcome .
We have to , must , keep the virus out the medical system .
• We need to seriously quarantine the sufferers away from other sick people .
• We need to set up testing facilities at all medical centers and test the medical personnel daily .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ COVID-19 infections , we need to set up separate field hospitals .
There are a number of commercial versions of these that are expandable by adding modules , and are pathogen-tight , with airlocks at the doors , HEPA exhaust filters and negative air pressure maintained throughout .
We know how to do this stuff , we ’ ve just got to do it .
• We need to test in-hospital patients at the time of their arrival and continue to test them at intervals during their stay .
• We ’ ll @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to patients in the hospitals It ’ s a big job , and we absolutely have to do it .
Second , it cautions us to not claim that everyone who tests positively for COVID-19 after death actually died FROM the disease .
They may very well have died WITH the disease .
Finally , the other reason it ’ s encouraging that Italy ’ s infection is likely nosocomial is that it removes Italy as the mysterious bogeyman of the COVID-19 pandemic .
In addition , it points to just what we @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it ’ s a big if ) we take the proper precautions to protect our vulnerable medical system and personnel , I don ’ t think that the US will get as high a death rate as Italy has today .
Note that this makes me seriously question the idea of “ flattening the curve ” … if you let the virus into your hospitals and medical system you ’ re toast , no matter how flat the curve is .
So let ’ s end this crazy American lockdown , there ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be done shoring up our medical sector to withstand the coming wave , and it can ’ t be done at home with our heads in the sand , hundreds of thousands of people not working , jobs disappearing daily , and our economy in a shambles … My very best regards to all , stay well in these parlous times , As Usual : I ask that when you comment , QUOTE THE EXACT WORDS YOU ’ RE DISCUSSING .
Knowing who and what you ’ re referring to avoids endless misunderstandings @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Just after publishing this , I was reading about loss of the senses of smell and taste being symptoms of coronavirus infection .
In the article , I found this : … “ many of his colleagues ” .
Kinda support my theory of nosocomial infection in Italy .
[ UPDATE 2 ] : In the news today , the headline Coronavirus : 4,824 Italian Health Workers Are Infected … one in ten of their coronavirus cases are health workers … PS—Let me take this opportunity to provide a wider readership to a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it ’ s a real word ) good friend Steve Mosher posted on my blog yesterday .
He ’ s living in Korea and has been a close observer of just how they are succeeding in controlling the virus .
He spells out the level and the details of what we have to do .
His comment is below , my thanks to him .
The key is changing the criteria for testing .
Here [ in Korea ] we test and track .
An employee of a call center in Seoul , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
March 8th .
he tested positive .
EVERY person in that office was tested .
today 152 have tested positive , they tested floors above and below his floor .
Today 3 more from the 11th floor were found and 1 contact .
They are now tracing the contact , and the contact ’ s contacts .
All will be tested .
The business was in a residential building .
553 of the people in that building were tested .
floors 13-18 This little beastie lives on surfaces for up to 3 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the hand rail on the stairs ?
the bathroom door handle ?
the coffee cup that pretty girl behind the counter handed you ?
it ’ s there .
Now in my building we have hand sanitizer by the elevator buttons .
you get in the habit of not touching public pretty quickly .
Trust me I am not a germ phobe , but the changes have been simple when they are reinforced .
Let me give you a little taste of the highly detailed info we get .
Info that is shared @ @ @ @ @ @ @ include some of the earlier call center case snippits “ In Daegu , every person at high-risk facilities is being tested .
87 percent completed testing and 192 ( 0.8 percent ) out of 25,493 were confirmed positive .
From Daesil Covalescent Hospital in Dalseong-gun , 54 additional cases were confirmed , which brings the current total to 64 .
In-patients on 6th and 7th floors are under cohort-quarantine.
” “ From Guro-gu call center in Seoul , 7 additional cases ( 11th floor = 2 ; contacts = 5 ) were confirmed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cases since 8 March .
( 11th floor = 89 ; 10th floor = 1 ; 9th floor = 1 ; contacts = 54 ) ” “ From Bundang Jesaeng Hospital in Gyeonggi Province , 4 additional cases were confirmed .
The current total of 35 confirmed cases since 5 March ( 20 staff , 5 patients in inpatient care , 2 discharged patients , 4 guardians of patients , 4 contacts outside the hospital ) .
The 144 staff members who were found to have visited the hospital ’ s Wing no @ @ @ @ @ @ @ emerged ) were tested , 3 of whom tested positive.
” “ Five additional confirmed cases have been reported from the call center located in Guro-gu , Seoul , amounting to a current total of 129 confirmed cases from the call center since 8 March .
As of now , 14 confirmed cases in Gyeonggi Province has been traced to have come in contact with a confirmed patient who is a worker at the 11th floor call center at a religious gathering .
Further investigation and tracing are underway.
” If the US @ @ @ @ @ @ @ won ’ t squash this bug .
Our cases are going up in Seoul .
So we will have 15 days of voluntary social distancing .
go to work stay away from crowds wash your hands wear a mask don ’ t touch your face

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach [Note updates at the end]
Since the earliest days of the current pandemic, Italy has been the scary member of the family that you absolutely don’t want to emulate, the one cousin that gets into really bad trouble. The Italians have the highest rate of deaths from the COVID-19 coronavirus, and their numbers continue to climb. Here’s the situation today.
Figure 1. Deaths from the COVID-19 coronavirus expressed as deaths per ten million of the country population. Percentages of the total population are shown at the right in blue. All countries are aligned at the date of their first reported death. Most recent daily chart and charts of previous days are available by going here and scrolling down.
Italy, with over six thousand dead, is up well into the blue range. This is the range of annual deaths from the flu in the US. If the US coronavirus patients were dying at the same rate as in Italy, we’d have 38,000 coronavirus deaths by now in addition to the same number of flu deaths …
As a result, there has been much debate about why the Italian death rate is so high. People have suggested that it’s because they have one of the older populations in Europe. Others have noted that they often live in extended families. Some say it’s high numbers of smokers and polluted air. And some have pointed to their social habits that involve touching, kissing cheeks, personal contact during church rituals, and the like.
But we haven’t had good data to take a hard look at the question, or at least I hadn’t seen any.
In the comments to my post entitled END THE AMERICAN LOCKDOWN, wherein I passionately advocate just exactly that, I was given a link by a web friend, Mary Ballon, hat tip to her. It’s a report by a Swiss medical doctor about the COVID-19 deaths in Italy, well worth reading.
And in that document, there’s a further link to an Italian Government report. It’s in Italian of course, I have it on good authority that’s what they actually speak over there, who knew? They reported on the statistics of a large sample of the Italian deaths (355 out of 2003 total deaths at the time of the report). I got it, and the numbers are very revealing.
Let me start with the age distribution of the 2,003 Italians who had died at the time of the report. Figure 2 shows that it’s almost entirely old people.
Figure 2. Age of 2,003 Italians who had COVID-19 at the time of death.
Out of the 2,003 deaths, seventeen were people under fifty, and only 5 people under thirty died, while almost two hundred deaths were of people over 90. I’d read that the people dying in Italy were old, but I didn’t realize quite how old they actually are …
One thing I learned on this voyage was that the Italians distinguished between dying FROM the virus on the one hand, and dying WITH the virus on the other. Once I looked at the state of health of the Italian victims, however, I could see why they had to do that. Figure 3 shows the generous apportionment of serious diseases and conditions among the unfortunates.
Figure 3. Numbers of diseases in the sample of 355 Italians who had COVID-19 at the time of their death.
WOW! Yeah, they all had COVID-19. But three-quarters of them also had hypertension, a third had diabetes, a third had ischemic heart disease, a quarter of them had atrial fibrillation tossing clots into the bloodstream, and so on down the list.
As you can see from Figure 3, some people must have had more than one other disease besides COVID-19. Figure 4 shows the breakdown of the number of other diseases per patient.
Figure 4. Other diseases (comorbidities) of a sample of 355 of the 2,003 Italians who had COVID-19 at the time of their death.
For me, this was the most surprising finding of the entire study. Of all 355 people who died, only three did not have any of the diseases listed above. Three!
Looking at all of this as a whole picture, I had a curious thought about who they were representing. I thought … consider the characteristics of the people who died:
More of the patients were over 90 than were under 60.
The average age was 79 years.
All but three of them had at least one other disease, so basically all of them were already sick.
Three-quarters of them had two other diseases, and half of them had three or more other diseases. Half!
My thought was … that’s not a sample of the people in the street. That’s not a sample of an Italian family.
That’s a sample of a totally different population.
I was forced to a curious conclusion, both discouraging and encouraging. It is that most of these diseases were probably not community-acquired. Instead, I would hazard a guess that most of them go by the curious name of “nosocomial” infections, viz:
nos·o·co·mi·al /ˌnōzōˈkōmēəl/ adjective MEDICINE (of a disease) originating in a hospital.
Here’s what I suspect. I think that the COVID-19 disease got established in a couple of areas in Italy well before anyone even knew the disease was there, perhaps even before the Chinese recognized it as a novel disease.
And in some fashion, it got into the medical system. Doesn’t matter how. But once there, it was spread invisibly to other patients, in particular the oldest and weakest of the patients. It went from patient to patient, from patient to visitor and back again, and it was also spread by everyone in the hospital from administrators to doctors and nurses to janitors. In many, perhaps most cases, they didn’t even know they were sick, but they were indeed infectious.
And that’s why the pattern of the Italian deaths is so curious, and their number is so much larger than the rest of the world. It’s not a cross-section of the general population. It’s a cross-section of people who were already quite sick, sick enough that they were already visiting doctors and having procedures or being bedridden in hospitals. It was 85-year-olds with three diseases.
And it’s also why the death rate in Italy is so high—these people were already very ill. I can see why the Italians are distinguishing between dying FROM the virus and dying WITH the virus.
DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS
As I said, this is both discouraging and encouraging. It’s discouraging because getting the virus out of a modern medical facility and a dispersed medical system isn’t easy. Italy has a big job ahead. And it’s discouraging because it means that the medical personnel who are so needed for the fight are getting the disease as well. Very likely they won’t die from it, but they will be hors de combat for three weeks or so. No bueno.
On the other hand, it is encouraging in a couple of aspects.
First, it lets us know what we need to do to prevent the Italian outcome. We have to, must, keep the virus out the medical system.
We need to seriously quarantine the sufferers away from other sick people.
We need to set up testing facilities at all medical centers and test the medical personnel daily.
In areas with a number of COVID-19 infections, we need to set up separate field hospitals. There are a number of commercial versions of these that are expandable by adding modules, and are pathogen-tight, with airlocks at the doors, HEPA exhaust filters and negative air pressure maintained throughout. We know how to do this stuff, we’ve just got to do it.
We need to test in-hospital patients at the time of their arrival and continue to test them at intervals during their stay.
We’ll have to be very careful with visitors to patients in the hospitals
It’s a big job, and we absolutely have to do it.
Second, it cautions us to not claim that everyone who tests positively for COVID-19 after death actually died FROM the disease. They may very well have died WITH the disease.
Finally, the other reason it’s encouraging that Italy’s infection is likely nosocomial is that it removes Italy as the mysterious bogeyman of the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition, it points to just what we have to do.
IF (and it’s a big if) we take the proper precautions to protect our vulnerable medical system and personnel, I don’t think that the US will get as high a death rate as Italy has today.
Note that this makes me seriously question the idea of “flattening the curve” … if you let the virus into your hospitals and medical system you’re toast, no matter how flat the curve is.
So let’s end this crazy American lockdown, there’s a whole raft of work to be done shoring up our medical sector to withstand the coming wave, and it can’t be done at home with our heads in the sand, hundreds of thousands of people not working, jobs disappearing daily, and our economy in a shambles …
My very best regards to all, stay well in these parlous times,
w.
As Usual: I ask that when you comment, QUOTE THE EXACT WORDS YOU’RE DISCUSSING. Knowing who and what you’re referring to avoids endless misunderstandings and arguments.
[UPDATE]: Just after publishing this, I was reading about loss of the senses of smell and taste being symptoms of coronavirus infection. In the article, I found this:
Hopkins says an Italian doctor shared that “he and many of his colleagues had lost their sense of smell while working in northern Italy dealing with COVID-19 patients.”
… “many of his colleagues”. Kinda support my theory of nosocomial infection in Italy.
[UPDATE 2]: In the news today, the headline Coronavirus: 4,824 Italian Health Workers Are Infected … one in ten of their coronavirus cases are health workers …
[UPDATE 3]: Here’s a graph showing just how different Italy is from the other countries with numbers of cases …
PS—Let me take this opportunity to provide a wider readership to a comment that my obstropulous (yes, it’s a real word) good friend Steve Mosher posted on my blog yesterday. He’s living in Korea and has been a close observer of just how they are succeeding in controlling the virus. He spells out the level and the details of what we have to do. His comment is below, my thanks to him.The key is changing the criteria for testing. Here [in Korea] we test and track.
An employee of a call center in Seoul, was infected.
Office had 207 people.
March 8th. he tested positive.
EVERY person in that office was tested. today 152 have tested positive, they tested floors above and below his floor. Today 3 more from the 11th floor were found and 1 contact.
They are now tracing the contact, and the contact’s contacts. All will be tested. The business was in a residential building. 553 of the people in that building were tested. floors 13-18
This little beastie lives on surfaces for up to 3 days. See that elevator button? the hand rail on the stairs? the bathroom door handle? the coffee cup that pretty girl behind the counter handed you? it’s there. Now in my building we have hand sanitizer by the elevator buttons. you get in the habit of not touching public pretty quickly. Trust me I am not a germ phobe, but the changes have been simple when they are reinforced.
Let me give you a little taste of the highly detailed info we get.
Info that is shared daily in one spot, I will include some of the earlier call center case snippits
“In Daegu, every person at high-risk facilities is being tested. 87 percent completed testing and 192 (0.8 percent) out of 25,493 were confirmed positive. From Daesil Covalescent Hospital in Dalseong-gun, 54 additional cases were confirmed, which brings the current total to 64. In-patients on 6th and 7th floors are under cohort-quarantine.”
“From Guro-gu call center in Seoul, 7 additional cases (11th floor = 2; contacts = 5) were confirmed. The current total is 146 confirmed cases since 8 March. (11th floor = 89; 10th floor = 1; 9th floor = 1; contacts = 54)”
“From Bundang Jesaeng Hospital in Gyeonggi Province, 4 additional cases were confirmed. The current total of 35 confirmed cases since 5 March (20 staff, 5 patients in inpatient care, 2 discharged patients, 4 guardians of patients, 4 contacts outside the hospital). The 144 staff members who were found to have visited the hospital’s Wing no. 81 (where many confirmed cases emerged) were tested, 3 of whom tested positive.”
“Five additional confirmed cases have been reported from the call center located in Guro-gu, Seoul, amounting to a current total of 129 confirmed cases from the call center since 8 March. As of now, 14 confirmed cases in Gyeonggi Province has been traced to have come in contact with a confirmed patient who is a worker at the 11th floor call center at a religious gathering. Further investigation and tracing are underway.”
Test, Trace, Test more.
A random test in Iceland found 1% infected. 50% asymptomatic.
If the US persists in only testing the symptomatic you won’t squash this bug.
Our cases are going up in Seoul. So we will have 15 days of voluntary social distancing.
go to work
stay away from crowds
wash your hands
wear a mask
don’t touch your face
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