wattsupwiththat--2020-11-23--Preventing future forest infernos

Preventing future forest infernos

Getting past the climate scapegoat , and taking steps that could actually make a difference The 2020 fire season is nearing its end .
But monstrous wildfires continue to rage across America ’ s western states , devastating towns and habitats , and killing hundreds of people and millions of animals .
Politicians and environmentalists continue to rage that climate change is the primary factor , allowing few responsible , commonsense forest management actions that could actually reduce the risks .
Manmade climate change is a convenient scapegoat , but it can not be separated from natural climate fluctuations and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fuel emissions play a dominant role in the human portion of this equation – and even if the Pacific Northwest or entire USA eliminated coal , oil and natural gas – China , India and scores of other nations will not do so anytime soon .
And they will certainly be using fossil fuels to manufacture the wind turbines , solar panels and batteries envisioned by Green New Dealers – and to mine and process the raw materials those technologies require .
The key ingredient in these monstrous , devastating forest fires is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Bear fire suppression , coupled with half-century bans on timber harvesting , tree thinning and even insect control has filled western forests with dense concentrations of brush , fallen branches , needles and leaves , skinny young trees and huge older trees – many of them dead or dying – ready to be turned into conflagrations under hot , dry summer and autumn conditions that prevail most years in California and other western states .
It ’ s a recipe for disasters like the 1871 Peshtigo Fire , 20 miles north of where @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on the very same day as the Great Chicago Fire .
Blistering flames a mile high moved south at 100 mph , creating “ fire tornados ” that threw houses and rail cars into the air .
Over a million acres of forest were obliterated in two days ; up to 2,500 people died , many of them cremated into little piles of ash .
I also recall how American and British bombers deliberately turned Hamburg , Germany into an inferno in July 1943 .
The first waves of planes dropped “ blockbuster @ @ @ @ @ @ @ parts of the city known to have mostly wooden structures .
They were followed in subsequent days by attacks with incendiary bombs , which turned the wood debris into a firestorm , with tornado winds up to 150 mph , and temperatures of nearly 1500 F. Operation Gomorrah killed over 40,000 people .
A few days ago , I picked up my latest issue of Wired magazine .
Daniel Duane ’ s 12-page article “ The fires next time ” made a couple now-obligatory references to climate change , but was one of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ ve read on the causes and nature of these horrific wildfires .
He vividly explains why we are witnessing a “ trend toward fires dramatically more catastrophic ” than in the past .
Above all , the reason is fuel buildup .
CalFire , he notes , has some 75 aircraft and 700 fire engines , and is very good at extinguishing thousands of wild-land fires annually .
But CalFire has virtually no fuel-management authority and must simply watch the trees and other fuel get “ more and more dense , ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that US Forest Service scientist Mark Finney says are big because landscapes are full of tinder and long-burning , heavy fuels .
Ditto in other states .
More trees of course generate more roots competing for the same water , further drying everything out .
In California alone , this and the 2011-2016 drought and pine bark beetles killed 150 million trees !
Another key ingredient , Duane writes , is the simultaneous burning of many small fires ( caused by multiple lightning strikes , eg ) that combine light and heavy fuels @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ambient winds .
“ As that broad area continues to burn with glowing and smoldering embers over many hours , the separate convective columns of all those many little fires begin to join into a single , giant plume.
” As hot air in the plume rises , air at its base is replaced by air “ sucked in from all directions .
This can create a 360-degree field of wind howling directly into the blaze … oxygenating the fire and pushing temperatures high enough to flip even … giant construction timbers and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Those heavy fuels then pump still more heat into the convective column… .
[ which ] rises ever faster and sucks in more wind , as if the fire has found a way to stoke itself.
” The timbers , branches and entire trees become “ firebrands ” that can be carried high into the air , a mile or more from the primary fire , then dropped into timber stands and homes , igniting still more firestorms .
Smaller blazes can be controlled , even extinguished .
But massive firestorms can be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hopeless .
The primary order of business with mass fires is getting people out of harm ’ s way , before escape routes are clogged , cars run out of gas , and walls of flame close in .
That means building more escape roads from communities through forests to safety , even in the face of environmentalist opposition and lawsuits .
Roads are far less intrusive or harmful than conflagrations .
Yet radical greens battle these roads , while praising these unnatural conflagrations as “ nature ’ s way.
” People lived @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , politicians and courts made conflagration conditions this horrific .
Actions need to be taken now to prevent more deadly fire cataclysms .
That has to begin with removal of diseased , dead and excessive trees and brush .
It will take years , decades even , and a lot of effort and money .
But failure to halt and reverse the buildup of fuel in our forests is undeniably irresponsible – and deadly .
Apache Indian forestry programs prove sound management saves forests .
Blaming climate change is useless and irresponsible .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ , just to see if China and India finally replace fossil fuels , perhaps with nuclear power – in the hope that reducing atmospheric carbon dioxide actually reduces climate change , droughts , extreme weather and infernos .
Policymakers , land management agencies and regulators , Native tribes , community associations , industry groups and less obdurate environmental groups should seek collaboration and cooperation , especially on forest management and tree thinning .
This is already happening but needs to be expanded greatly .
Educational programs should teach homeowners how to harden and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to midsized fires – and teach judges and politicians the hard realities of modern fires .
Above all , those with ultimately life-or-death decision-making authority must understand that the price of bans on timber harvesting and responsible forest management is too often measured in homes and habitats obliterated , wildlife and humans killed , soil organisms incinerated , soils washed away by rainstorms and snowmelts , and millions of acres denuded and desolate for decades .
Tougher building codes for new construction in these areas would save homes , heirlooms and lives .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ or fire-resistant materials .
Special financing and low-interest loans would make such new homes and hardened existing homes and buildings more affordable .
Local , state and federal budgets are already stretched to their limits .
Funding will have to be redirected from other programs .
Another approach could require forestry work for welfare checks .
Besides saving habitats and lives , that would build skills , self-esteem and strong work ethics , improve physical fitness , replace a sense of entitlement with a sense of accomplishment , and create connections and opportunities @ @ @ @ @ @ @ like Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos , who recently gave $ 791 million to climate activist groups , as part of his commitment to his $ 10-billion Earth Fund .
Certainly , helping to stop these deadly fires – and the incalculable air pollution , soil erosion , and habitat and wildlife destruction they cause – would be one of the boldest and most effective actions anyone could take to protect Earth ’ s future , including the majestic at-risk forests in his own backyard .
The bottom line is so simple we shouldn @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
If we don ’ t act , nature will .
We have created this massive fuel-for-fires problem .
We can and must fix it .
Either we thin out trees , or nature will – with devastating consequences .
For people who claim to care deeply about saving our forests for Bambi , spotted owls and other beloved creatures , guaranteeing horrific infernos is quite literally a hellish way to demonstrate our love for Mother Earth .
Paul Driessen is senior policy analyst for the Committee For A Constructive Tomorrow ( www.CFACT.org @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on energy , environment , climate and human rights issues .

Getting past the climate scapegoat, and taking steps that could actually make a difference
Paul Driessen
The 2020 fire season is nearing its end. But monstrous wildfires continue to rage across America’s western states, devastating towns and habitats, and killing hundreds of people and millions of animals. Politicians and environmentalists continue to rage that climate change is the primary factor, allowing few responsible, commonsense forest management actions that could actually reduce the risks.
Manmade climate change is a convenient scapegoat, but it cannot be separated from natural climate fluctuations and effects. Moreover, even assuming fossil fuel emissions play a dominant role in the human portion of this equation – and even if the Pacific Northwest or entire USA eliminated coal, oil and natural gas – China, India and scores of other nations will not do so anytime soon.
And they will certainly be using fossil fuels to manufacture the wind turbines, solar panels and batteries envisioned by Green New Dealers – and to mine and process the raw materials those technologies require.
The key ingredient in these monstrous, devastating forest fires is fuel. A century of Smokey the Bear fire suppression, coupled with half-century bans on timber harvesting, tree thinning and even insect control has filled western forests with dense concentrations of brush, fallen branches, needles and leaves, skinny young trees and huge older trees – many of them dead or dying – ready to be turned into conflagrations under hot, dry summer and autumn conditions that prevail most years in California and other western states.
It’s a recipe for disasters like the 1871 Peshtigo Fire, 20 miles north of where I grew up in northeastern Wisconsin, on the very same day as the Great Chicago Fire. Blistering flames a mile high moved south at 100 mph, creating “fire tornados” that threw houses and rail cars into the air. Over a million acres of forest were obliterated in two days; up to 2,500 people died, many of them cremated into little piles of ash.
I also recall how American and British bombers deliberately turned Hamburg, Germany into an inferno in July 1943. The first waves of planes dropped “blockbuster” bombs that leveled arms factories and parts of the city known to have mostly wooden structures. They were followed in subsequent days by attacks with incendiary bombs, which turned the wood debris into a firestorm, with tornado winds up to 150 mph, and temperatures of nearly 1500 F. Operation Gomorrah killed over 40,000 people.
A few days ago, I picked up my latest issue of Wired magazine. Daniel Duane’s 12-page article “The fires next time” made a couple now-obligatory references to climate change, but was one of the most detailed and insightful articles I’ve read on the causes and nature of these horrific wildfires. He vividly explains why we are witnessing a “trend toward fires dramatically more catastrophic” than in the past.
Above all, the reason is fuel buildup. CalFire, he notes, has some 75 aircraft and 700 fire engines, and is very good at extinguishing thousands of wild-land fires annually. But CalFire has virtually no fuel-management authority and must simply watch the trees and other fuel get “more and more dense,” creating prime conditions for ever-worsening crown fires that US Forest Service scientist Mark Finney says are big because landscapes are full of tinder and long-burning, heavy fuels. Ditto in other states.
More trees of course generate more roots competing for the same water, further drying everything out. In California alone, this and the 2011-2016 drought and pine bark beetles killed 150 million trees!
Another key ingredient, Duane writes, is the simultaneous burning of many small fires (caused by multiple lightning strikes, eg) that combine light and heavy fuels over a large area, amid mild ambient winds. “As that broad area continues to burn with glowing and smoldering embers over many hours, the separate convective columns of all those many little fires begin to join into a single, giant plume.”
As hot air in the plume rises, air at its base is replaced by air “sucked in from all directions. This can create a 360-degree field of wind howling directly into the blaze … oxygenating the fire and pushing temperatures high enough to flip even … giant construction timbers and mature trees into full-blown flaming combustion. Those heavy fuels then pump still more heat into the convective column…. [which] rises ever faster and sucks in more wind, as if the fire has found a way to stoke itself.” The timbers, branches and entire trees become “firebrands” that can be carried high into the air, a mile or more from the primary fire, then dropped into timber stands and homes, igniting still more firestorms.
Smaller blazes can be controlled, even extinguished. But massive firestorms can be impossible to suppress, saving homes equally hopeless. The primary order of business with mass fires is getting people out of harm’s way, before escape routes are clogged, cars run out of gas, and walls of flame close in.
That means building more escape roads from communities through forests to safety, even in the face of environmentalist opposition and lawsuits. Roads are far less intrusive or harmful than conflagrations. Yet radical greens battle these roads, while praising these unnatural conflagrations as “nature’s way.”
People lived in these areas long before pressure groups, politicians and courts made conflagration conditions this horrific. Actions need to be taken now to prevent more deadly fire cataclysms. That has to begin with removal of diseased, dead and excessive trees and brush. It will take years, decades even, and a lot of effort and money. But failure to halt and reverse the buildup of fuel in our forests is undeniably irresponsible – and deadly. Apache Indian forestry programs prove sound management saves forests.
Blaming climate change is useless and irresponsible. It means waiting 30-50 years or more, just to see if China and India finally replace fossil fuels, perhaps with nuclear power – in the hope that reducing atmospheric carbon dioxide actually reduces climate change, droughts, extreme weather and infernos.
Policymakers, land management agencies and regulators, Native tribes, community associations, industry groups and less obdurate environmental groups should seek collaboration and cooperation, especially on forest management and tree thinning. This is already happening but needs to be expanded greatly.
Educational programs should teach homeowners how to harden and fireproof houses and other buildings against small to midsized fires – and teach judges and politicians the hard realities of modern fires. Above all, those with ultimately life-or-death decision-making authority must understand that the price of bans on timber harvesting and responsible forest management is too often measured in homes and habitats obliterated, wildlife and humans killed, soil organisms incinerated, soils washed away by rainstorms and snowmelts, and millions of acres denuded and desolate for decades.
Tougher building codes for new construction in these areas would save homes, heirlooms and lives. Roofs especially should be made of fireproof or fire-resistant materials. Special financing and low-interest loans would make such new homes and hardened existing homes and buildings more affordable.
Local, state and federal budgets are already stretched to their limits. Funding will have to be redirected from other programs. Another approach could require forestry work for welfare checks. Besides saving habitats and lives, that would build skills, self-esteem and strong work ethics, improve physical fitness, replace a sense of entitlement with a sense of accomplishment, and create connections and opportunities
Another source of funds could be billionaires like Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos, who recently gave $791 million to climate activist groups, as part of his commitment to his $10-billion Earth Fund. Certainly, helping to stop these deadly fires – and the incalculable air pollution, soil erosion, and habitat and wildlife destruction they cause – would be one of the boldest and most effective actions anyone could take to protect Earth’s future, including the majestic at-risk forests in his own backyard.
The bottom line is so simple we shouldn’t even have to state it.
If we don’t act, nature will. We have created this massive fuel-for-fires problem. We can and must fix it. Either we thin out trees, or nature will – with devastating consequences. For people who claim to care deeply about saving our forests for Bambi, spotted owls and other beloved creatures, guaranteeing horrific infernos is quite literally a hellish way to demonstrate our love for Mother Earth.
Paul Driessen is senior policy analyst for the Committee For A Constructive Tomorrow (www.CFACT.org) and author of books and articles on energy, environment, climate and human rights issues.
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wattsupwiththat--2020-11-24--US Sheriffs Refusing to Enforce Covid-19 Thanksgiving Lockdowns

h/t Breitbart ; Some sheriffs in areas affected by Coronavirus lockdowns have rejected the idea they will enforce the lockdown orders .
Someone just anonymously emailed and said of course the Executive order doesn ’ t apply to people who live in home .
EO states limit 10 or fewer people private residents .
Does not state any exceptions .
Albany County Sheriff Craig Apple summarized it best when he said : It ’ s sometimes in the messaging , most people will respond better when asked ; not told to do something .
Especially when it comes to reducing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
I have received numerous calls , texts , messages , posts and emails inquiring about Governor Cuomo ’ s Thanksgiving Executive Order and whether the Fulton County Sheriff ’ s Office intends to enforce it .
First an Executive Order applying directly to citizens for their private conduct is usually not a law in the sense that there are no penalties attached and you can ’ t be arrested .
Businesses are different .
An Executive Order can authorize the State Health Department , the State Liquor Authority , the State Department @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Agencies with jurisdiction over businesses , to write up , suspend or revoke their licences and\or fine a business for a violation .
With regard to the Thanksgiving Executive Order , the Fulton County Sheriff ’ s Office will NOT be enforcing it against our County residents .
Frankly , I am not sure it could sustain a Constitutional challenge in Court for several reasons including your house is your castle .
And as a Sheriff with a law degree I couldn ’ t in good faith attempt to defend it in Court @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Who and how many people you invite in to your home is your business , unlike outdoor gatherings which may receive a police response if disorderly or other violations of public nuisance laws occur .
We have limited resources and we have to set priorities , so obtaining a Search Warrant to enter your home to see how many Turkey or Tofu eaters are present is not a priority .
We won ’ t be doing that .
The only way to enter your residence is if we have a warrant , we @ @ @ @ @ @ @ emergency circumstance exist .
We have three patrols a shift for 500 square miles , monitoring Family Dinners aren ’ t our priority .
So don ’ t feel a need to hide cars , cover with leaves or walk 3 blocks so your house doesn ’ t become a target of the Governors EO .
I trust people in Fulton County to use their own judgement on who and how many people they invite .
Obviously if you have high risk family members you will weigh the risks to your loved ones @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that , a time to give thanks for what we have or have received over the year .
2020 has been the most chaotic year for so many people between the CV19 , job furloughs , or loss of jobs , interference in education and every other activity .
The riots and civil unrest which have cost millions of dollars and damaged or destroyed thousands of businesses and injured multiple people .
The constant barrage of Government Regulations and control over your daily lives has added to mass depression , the exacerbation of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the disruption of your normal routine .
Honestly in 2020 we have had all the disasters of the 1900s .
A Pandemic ( 1918-19 ) , a financial depression ( 1930s ) and the civil unrest and riots of the 1960 ’ s .
All this in the last 8 months .
With that said most people want a time to be thankful for the good things we have including family and friends .
I urge you to use good judgement , wear masks , wash and disinfect frequently and social distance .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ family and friends should be the priority .
I personally want to thank all the first responders , medical staff from maintenance thru CNAs to Nurses , Doctors and Admin for what they ’ ve done .
I want to thank teachers and administrators , store employees , the businnesses who have tried to keep the people employed and their business operating .
There truly are alot more essential services from DPW employees to Gas stations to repair shops .
I know I ’ m not listing every category but you get the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the employees in all Divisions of the FCSO for what they do every day .
P.s .
Thanks to Sheriff Howard for his words .

Guest essay by Eric Worrall
h/t Breitbart; Some sheriffs in areas affected by Coronavirus lockdowns have rejected the idea they will enforce the lockdown orders.
Update 2
Someone just anonymously emailed and said of course the Executive order doesn’t apply to people who live in home. EO states limit 10 or fewer people private residents. Does not state any exceptions.
Albany County Sheriff Craig Apple summarized it best when he said:
It’s sometimes in the messaging, most people will respond better when asked; not told to do something. Especially when it comes to reducing the spread of CV19 and saving lives.
*************** Original Post*****************
I have received numerous calls, texts, messages, posts and emails inquiring about Governor Cuomo’s Thanksgiving Executive Order and whether the Fulton County Sheriff’s Office intends to enforce it.
First an Executive Order applying directly to citizens for their private conduct is usually not a law in the sense that there are no penalties attached and you can’t be arrested.
Businesses are different. An Executive Order can authorize the State Health Department, the State Liquor Authority, the State Department of Taxation and Finance and other similar Agencies with jurisdiction over businesses, to write up, suspend or revoke their licences and\or fine a business for a violation.
With regard to the Thanksgiving Executive Order, the Fulton County Sheriff’s Office will NOT be enforcing it against our County residents. Frankly, I am not sure it could sustain a Constitutional challenge in Court for several reasons including your house is your castle. And as a Sheriff with a law degree I couldn’t in good faith attempt to defend it in Court, so I won’t.
Who and how many people you invite in to your home is your business, unlike outdoor gatherings which may receive a police response if disorderly or other violations of public nuisance laws occur.
We have limited resources and we have to set priorities, so obtaining a Search Warrant to enter your home to see how many Turkey or Tofu eaters are present is not a priority. We won’t be doing that. The only way to enter your residence is if we have a warrant, we are invited in or an exigent or emergency circumstance exist. We have three patrols a shift for 500 square miles, monitoring Family Dinners aren’t our priority.
So don’t feel a need to hide cars, cover with leaves or walk 3 blocks so your house doesn’t become a target of the Governors EO.
I trust people in Fulton County to use their own judgement on who and how many people they invite. Obviously if you have high risk family members you will weigh the risks to your loved ones versus the reward. Thanksgiving is just that, a time to give thanks for what we have or have received over the year.
2020 has been the most chaotic year for so many people between the CV19, job furloughs, or loss of jobs, interference in education and every other activity. The riots and civil unrest which have cost millions of dollars and damaged or destroyed thousands of businesses and injured multiple people.
The constant barrage of Government Regulations and control over your daily lives has added to mass depression, the exacerbation of other medical conditions due to stress and the disruption of your normal routine.
Honestly in 2020 we have had all the disasters of the 1900s. A Pandemic(1918-19), a financial depression(1930s) and the civil unrest and riots of the 1960’s. All this in the last 8 months.
With that said most people want a time to be thankful for the good things we have including family and friends.
I urge you to use good judgement, wear masks, wash and disinfect frequently and social distance. The safety of your loved ones, family and friends should be the priority.
I personally want to thank all the first responders, medical staff from maintenance thru CNAs to Nurses, Doctors and Admin for what they’ve done. I want to thank teachers and administrators, store employees, the businnesses who have tried to keep the people employed and their business operating.
There truly are alot more essential services from DPW employees to Gas stations to repair shops. I know I’m not listing every category but you get the drift.
I want to thank all the employees in all Divisions of the FCSO for what they do every day.
Fulton County Sheriff Richard Giardino
P.s. Thanks to Sheriff Howard for his words.


wattsupwiththat--2020-11-23--Field Geology on Mars Reveals Evidence of Megaflood

Floods of unimaginable magnitude once washed through Gale Crater on Mars ’ equator around 4 billion years ago – a finding that hints at the possibility that life may have existed there , according to data collected by NASA ’ s Curiosity rover and analyzed in joint project by scientists from Jackson State University , Cornell , the Jet Propulsion Laboratory and the University of Hawaii .
The research , “ Deposits from Giant Floods in Gale Crater and Their Implications for the Climate of Early Mars , ” was published Nov. 5 in Nature Scientific Reports .
“ We @ @ @ @ @ @ @ detailed sedimentological data observed by the rover Curiosity , ” said co-author Alberto G. Fairén , a visiting astrobiologist in the College of Arts and Sciences .
“ Deposits left behind by megafloods had not been previously identified with orbiter data.
” The most likely cause of the Mars flooding was the melting of ice from heat generated by a large impact , which released carbon dioxide and methane from the planet ’ s frozen reservoirs .
The water vapor and release of gases combined to produce a short period of warm and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The Curiosity rover science team has already established that Gale Crater once had persistent lakes and streams in the ancient past .
These long-lived bodies of water are good indicators that the crater , as well as Mount Sharp within it , were capable of supporting microbial life .
“ Early Mars was an extremely active planet from a geological point of view , ” Fairén said .
“ The planet had the conditions needed to support the presence of liquid water on the surface – and on Earth , where there ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
“ So early Mars was a habitable planet , ” he said .
“ Was it inhabited ?
That ’ s a question that the next rover Perseverance … will help to answer.
” Perseverance , which launched from Cape Canaveral on July 30 , is scheduled to reach Mars on Feb. 18 , 2021 .

Guest “field geology rocks!” by David Middleton
Field geology at Mars’ equator points to ancient megaflood
By Blaine Friedlander | November 18, 2020
Floods of unimaginable magnitude once washed through Gale Crater on Mars’ equator around 4 billion years ago – a finding that hints at the possibility that life may have existed there, according to data collected by NASA’s Curiosity rover and analyzed in joint project by scientists from Jackson State University, Cornell, the Jet Propulsion Laboratory and the University of Hawaii.
The research, “Deposits from Giant Floods in Gale Crater and Their Implications for the Climate of Early Mars,” was published Nov. 5 in Nature Scientific Reports.
[…]
“We identified megafloods for the first time using detailed sedimentological data observed by the rover Curiosity,” said co-author Alberto G. Fairén, a visiting astrobiologist in the College of Arts and Sciences. “Deposits left behind by megafloods had not been previously identified with orbiter data.”
[…]
The most likely cause of the Mars flooding was the melting of ice from heat generated by a large impact, which released carbon dioxide and methane from the planet’s frozen reservoirs. The water vapor and release of gases combined to produce a short period of warm and wet conditions on the red planet.
[…]
The Curiosity rover science team has already established that Gale Crater once had persistent lakes and streams in the ancient past. These long-lived bodies of water are good indicators that the crater, as well as Mount Sharp within it, were capable of supporting microbial life.
“Early Mars was an extremely active planet from a geological point of view,” Fairén said. “The planet had the conditions needed to support the presence of liquid water on the surface – and on Earth, where there’s water, there’s life.
“So early Mars was a habitable planet,” he said. “Was it inhabited? That’s a question that the next rover Perseverance … will help to answer.”
Perseverance, which launched from Cape Canaveral on July 30, is scheduled to reach Mars on Feb. 18, 2021.
[…]


wattsupwiththat--2020-11-23--Sea Levels in the Nino Nina Cycle

Sea Levels in the Nino Nina Cycle

[ UPDATE : Grrr … thanks to an alert commenter , I find that my previous numbers were out by a factor of ten .
I love the web for that , my mistakes don ’ t last long .
Doesn ’ t affect my conclusions , but it is most embarrassing .
The netCDF file gave the units as metres , but then in the small print included a “ scale factor ” of .0001 .
Never seen that before .
It ’ s taken a bit of time but I ’ ve corrected the text and graphics .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ are correct .
I could remove this notice .
I won ’ t .
When I ’ m wrong , I admit it . ]
In a recent post entitled “ Boy Child , Girl Child ” I discussed my functional analysis of the El Nino-La Nina phenomenon .
I noted that the Nino-Nina alteration functions as a giant pump moving water from the equatorial Pacific towards both poles .
In that post I used this image from NOAA : Figure 1 .
The Nino/Nina differences as shown by the TAU/TRITON moored buoys @ @ @ @ @ @ @ westward , across the equator in the Pacific Ocean , from a vantage point somewhere in the Andes Mountains in South America .
The colored surfaces show TAO/TRITON ocean temperatures .
The top surface is the sea-surface , from 8°N to 8°S and from 137°E to 95°W .
The shape of the sea surface is determined by TAO/TRITON Dynamic Height data .
The wide vertical surface is at 8°S and extends to 500 meters depth .
The narrower vertical surface is at 95°W .
In Figure 1 you can see how the strength @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hollowed out the surface of the ocean along the Equator … but unfortunately , there was no scale on that part of the drawing .
How much , I wondered , did the sea level go up and down with the Nino-Nina alternation ?
Pondering that , I thought I could use the sea level height to determine a minimum value for the amount of water actually pumped over the year-long pumping stroke from El Nino to La Nina .
So I needed a sea level height dataset .
I turned to the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ click on their “ Daily Fields ” link , down near the bottom of the resulting page is the Copernicus 1/4° satellite-based sea level data .
I wanted the sea level gridded data in netCDF format .
So I selected “ sea level anomaly ” among the Copernicus choices .
And down at the very bottom of that type of page , KNMI generally offers a netCDF option .
In this case , it says “ C3S sea level anomalies is available as a netcdf file ( size 8851.18 MB ) .
Yikes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a big dataset , but I ’ m blessed with gig-speed fiber optics to my desk , so it was about a ten-minute download .
I wanted to make a movie of the 1997/98 Nino/Nina pumping cycle .
So from that big dataset , I extracted a subset from January 1 , 1997 , to December 31 , 1998 , and converted it into an animated GIF .
I used every other day ’ s data to keep the size of the output down .
I then used an online service to convert @ @ @ @ @ @ @ That gives me ( and you ) control over the display that an animated GIF doesn ’ t have .
It also reduces the size from 67 Mbytes for the GIF down to 14 Mbyes for the MP4 , for faster loading .
As always , the result is both fascinating and educational .
The peak of the El Nino , which is the intake stroke of the pump , is in November 1997 .
As noted in my previous post , the phenomenon always lasts ~ twelve months , so the end @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 1998 .
Figure 2 .
Movie of the 1997-1998 El Nino – La Nina pump cycle .
White contour lines around bright red and dark blue areas show sea level elevations/depressions of +.2 and -.2 metres .
What did I notice in the movie ?
Well , lots of things .
I noticed that I can see the eddies that extend from the southern tip of Africa clear around to below New Zealand ’ s South Island .
I can see the eddies of the Gulf Stream in the western North Atlantic , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Kuroshio Current in the western North Pacific .
I can watch the comings and goings of the ice around Antarctica and in the Arctic .
I also note that in the Indian Ocean something is going on that looks very much like the Nino/Nina alteration in the Pacific … watts up with that ?
What else ?
In November 1997 I can see the well-known effect of the El Nino depressing the ocean surface levels in the islands between Australia and the Equator .
I also notice that starting around March 8th , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bulge of seawater that develops around the Equator north of Australia .
Curiously , although most equatorial Pacific water is moving westward , over the next six weeks this bulge moves as a wave eastward until it hits the coast of South America .
When it hits , the El Nino immediately begins to form and extend out from the coast towards the mid-Pacific .
That eastward-moving wave goes about 9,000 miles ( 14,500 km ) in 40 days or so .
That means it ’ s moving at about 9 mph ( @ @ @ @ @ @ @ any case , as you may recall , I started this hejira because thought I could use the sea level height to determine a minimum value for the amount of water actually pumped over the year-long pumping stroke from El Nino to La Nina .
So what I did was , I calculated the difference between the sea level heights at peak El Nino ( November 1997 ) and peak La Nina ( November 1998 ) .
Figures 3 to 5 show those results .
To begin with , here is the average @ @ @ @ @ @ @ here ’ s the opposite end of the pumping cycle , in November 1998 .
Figure 4 .
Sea level height anomaly , peak La Nina conditions , November 1998 .
Note the different legend range and colors .
Finally , here ’ s the difference between the two : And this gives me the information I need to estimate the minimum amount of water pumped .
I chose the rectangular area shown in red above as the main location of what is pumped .
It goes from 5°N to 5°S , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ approximately the sum of the NINO34 , NINO2 , and NINO1 areas used to analyze the El Nino phenomenon .
For each gridcell in that area , I multiplied the surface height difference times the number of square metres in the gridcell .
The sum of these is the total amount moved by the Nino-Nina pump cycle .
This turns out to be about 3.6 trillion cubic metres of warm equatorial Pacific water pumped westwards and eventually polewards .
So … is 3.6 trillion cubic metres a lot or a little in a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ volume of water flowing in an oceanic current is measured in “ sverdrups ” .
One sverdrup is a flow of a million cubic metres per second .
Depending on where and when you measure it , the Gulf Stream flow ranges between about thirty to about a hundred and twenty sverdrups .
And the AMOC , the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Current , runs at about twenty sverdrups .
And a flow of 3.6 trillion cubic metres per year works out to about 0.1 million cubic metres per second , which is 0.1 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the top , I consider this a minimum amount moved .
I say this because as the wind is hollowing out the area near the equator , water is tending to flow by gravity into that depression from all sides .
This means that water is being pumped to the west even when there is no change in the sea surface level .
So the answer to my question that started this out is , over the year of its operation , at least a hundred thousand cubic metres every second is pumped @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , for a total of at least 3.6 trillion cubic metres over the year .
What else ?
Well , by the end , the Nino-Nina cycle has exposed subsurface water that is about 4° cooler than the surface water at the start of the cycle … and it does so over about 10 % of the entire tropical ocean .
And then , of course , there ’ s all the other stuff I learned along the way , which is its own reward .
Anyhow , that was my weekend .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ Writing it up today , publish Monday morning … plus football .
Got ta watch or at least listen to the games while I do other things .
Like trimming away the redwood branches that have been hitting my overhead internet line , using my whizbang bolt-on adjustable ladder adapter for uneven ground that I designed and built a couple of days ago .
I started by U-bolting the four corners of the plywood in the center of the picture to a couple of rungs on the ladder .
Then I adjustable bolted @ @ @ @ @ @ @ get 20′ ( 6m ) up a redwood tree trunk here on my hillside in relative safety , whereupon I lash the top of the ladder to the tree with a ratchet strap .
Works a treat , rock-solid .
Hey , do us 73-year-old geriatricats know how to party or what ?
My best regards to everyone , and please , quote what you ’ re talking about .
It saves endless misunderstanding .
I can defend my own words .
I can ’ t defend your interpretation of my words .

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach
[UPDATE: Grrr … thanks to an alert commenter, I find that my previous numbers were out by a factor of ten. I love the web for that, my mistakes don’t last long. Doesn’t affect my conclusions, but it is most embarrassing. The netCDF file gave the units as metres, but then in the small print included a “scale factor” of .0001. Never seen that before. It’s taken a bit of time but I’ve corrected the text and graphics. Grrr again. Now that the numbers are correct, I could remove this notice. I won’t. When I’m wrong, I admit it.]
In a recent post entitled “Boy Child, Girl Child” I discussed my functional analysis of the El Nino-La Nina phenomenon. I noted that the Nino-Nina alteration functions as a giant pump moving water from the equatorial Pacific towards both poles. In that post I used this image from NOAA:
Figure 1. The Nino/Nina differences as shown by the TAU/TRITON moored buoys along the Equator. You are looking westward, across the equator in the Pacific Ocean, from a vantage point somewhere in the Andes Mountains in South America. The colored surfaces show TAO/TRITON ocean temperatures. The top surface is the sea-surface, from 8°N to 8°S and from 137°E to 95°W. The shape of the sea surface is determined by TAO/TRITON Dynamic Height data. The wide vertical surface is at 8°S and extends to 500 meters depth. The narrower vertical surface is at 95°W.
In Figure 1 you can see how the strength of the La Nina winds has actually hollowed out the surface of the ocean along the Equator … but unfortunately, there was no scale on that part of the drawing. How much, I wondered, did the sea level go up and down with the Nino-Nina alternation?
Pondering that, I thought I could use the sea level height to determine a minimum value for the amount of water actually pumped over the year-long pumping stroke from El Nino to La Nina.
So I needed a sea level height dataset. I turned to the trusty KNMI Climate Explorer. When you click on their “Daily Fields” link, down near the bottom of the resulting page is the Copernicus 1/4° satellite-based sea level data. I wanted the sea level gridded data in netCDF format. So I selected “sea level anomaly” among the Copernicus choices. And down at the very bottom of that type of page, KNMI generally offers a netCDF option. In this case, it says “C3S sea level anomalies is available as a netcdf file (size 8851.18 MB).
Yikes. Nine gigabytes. It’s a big dataset, but I’m blessed with gig-speed fiber optics to my desk, so it was about a ten-minute download.
I wanted to make a movie of the 1997/98 Nino/Nina pumping cycle. So from that big dataset, I extracted a subset from January 1, 1997, to December 31, 1998, and converted it into an animated GIF. I used every other day’s data to keep the size of the output down. I then used an online service to convert it to an MP4 movie file. That gives me (and you) control over the display that an animated GIF doesn’t have. It also reduces the size from 67 Mbytes for the GIF down to 14 Mbyes for the MP4, for faster loading.
As always, the result is both fascinating and educational. The peak of the El Nino, which is the intake stroke of the pump, is in November 1997. As noted in my previous post, the phenomenon always lasts ~ twelve months, so the end of the discharge stroke is in November 1998.
Figure 2. Movie of the 1997-1998 El Nino – La Nina pump cycle. White contour lines around bright red and dark blue areas show sea level elevations/depressions of +.2 and -.2 metres.
What did I notice in the movie? Well, lots of things. I noticed that I can see the eddies that extend from the southern tip of Africa clear around to below New Zealand’s South Island. I can see the eddies of the Gulf Stream in the western North Atlantic, as well as those of the corresponding Kuroshio Current in the western North Pacific. I can watch the comings and goings of the ice around Antarctica and in the Arctic.
I also note that in the Indian Ocean something is going on that looks very much like the Nino/Nina alteration in the Pacific … watts up with that?
What else? In November 1997 I can see the well-known effect of the El Nino depressing the ocean surface levels in the islands between Australia and the Equator.
I also notice that starting around March 8th, 1997, there’s a large bulge of seawater that develops around the Equator north of Australia. Curiously, although most equatorial Pacific water is moving westward, over the next six weeks this bulge moves as a wave eastward until it hits the coast of South America. When it hits, the El Nino immediately begins to form and extend out from the coast towards the mid-Pacific.
That eastward-moving wave goes about 9,000 miles (14,500 km) in 40 days or so. That means it’s moving at about 9 mph (14.5 kph). Curious.
In any case, as you may recall, I started this hejira because thought I could use the sea level height to determine a minimum value for the amount of water actually pumped over the year-long pumping stroke from El Nino to La Nina. So what I did was, I calculated the difference between the sea level heights at peak El Nino (November 1997) and peak La Nina (November 1998). Figures 3 to 5 show those results. To begin with, here is the average November 1997 sea height.
Figure 3. Sea surface height anomaly, November 1997.
Next, here’s the opposite end of the pumping cycle, in November 1998.
Figure 4. Sea level height anomaly, peak La Nina conditions, November 1998. Note the different legend range and colors.
Finally, here’s the difference between the two:
Figure 5. November 1998 (La Nina) sea level anomaly minus November 1997 (El Nino) sea level anomaly.
And this gives me the information I need to estimate the minimum amount of water pumped. I chose the rectangular area shown in red above as the main location of what is pumped. It goes from 5°N to 5°S, and from 170°W to 85°W. It is approximately the sum of the NINO34, NINO2, and NINO1 areas used to analyze the El Nino phenomenon.
For each gridcell in that area, I multiplied the surface height difference times the number of square metres in the gridcell. The sum of these is the total amount moved by the Nino-Nina pump cycle. This turns out to be about 3.6 trillion cubic metres of warm equatorial Pacific water pumped westwards and eventually polewards.
So … is 3.6 trillion cubic metres a lot or a little in a very big ocean? Well, the volume of water flowing in an oceanic current is measured in “sverdrups”. One sverdrup is a flow of a million cubic metres per second. Depending on where and when you measure it, the Gulf Stream flow ranges between about thirty to about a hundred and twenty sverdrups. And the AMOC, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Current, runs at about twenty sverdrups.
And a flow of 3.6 trillion cubic metres per year works out to about 0.1 million cubic metres per second, which is 0.1 sverdrups.
As I said up near the top, I consider this a minimum amount moved. I say this because as the wind is hollowing out the area near the equator, water is tending to flow by gravity into that depression from all sides. This means that water is being pumped to the west even when there is no change in the sea surface level.
So the answer to my question that started this out is, over the year of its operation, at least a hundred thousand cubic metres every second is pumped westward and poleward by the Nino-Nina pump, for a total of at least 3.6 trillion cubic metres over the year.
What else? Well, by the end, the Nino-Nina cycle has exposed subsurface water that is about 4° cooler than the surface water at the start of the cycle … and it does so over about 10% of the entire tropical ocean.
And then, of course, there’s all the other stuff I learned along the way, which is its own reward.
Anyhow, that was my weekend. Did the research Friday and yesterday. Writing it up today, publish Monday morning … plus football. Gotta watch or at least listen to the games while I do other things. Like trimming away the redwood branches that have been hitting my overhead internet line, using my whizbang bolt-on adjustable ladder adapter for uneven ground that I designed and built a couple of days ago.
I started by U-bolting the four corners of the plywood in the center of the picture to a couple of rungs on the ladder. Then I adjustable bolted legs onto that. That lets me get 20′ (6m) up a redwood tree trunk here on my hillside in relative safety, whereupon I lash the top of the ladder to the tree with a ratchet strap. Works a treat, rock-solid.
Hey, do us 73-year-old geriatricats know how to party or what?
My best regards to everyone, and please, quote what you’re talking about. It saves endless misunderstanding. I can defend my own words. I can’t defend your interpretation of my words.
Hele on,
w.
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wattsupwiththat--2020-11-24--Famous Failed Predictions: UK Offshore Wind Edition

Bjorn Lomborg posted this on LinkedIn this morning… Wind energy to power UK by 2020 , government says Thousands of @ @ @ @ @ power every home in Britain by 2020 , the government announced today , as it @ @ @ @ @ .
John Hutton , the business secretary , proposed the creation of up to 33 @ @ @ @ @ at a European energy industry conference in Berlin .
He called for companies to invest @ @ @ @ @ generate enough power for up to 25m homes in the next 12 years .
That @ @ @ @ @ , or one every half-mile , Hutton told the BBC ’ s Politics Show yesterday @

Guest “Just a bit outside!” by David Middleton
Bjorn Lomborg posted this on LinkedIn this morning…
Wind energy to power UK by 2020, government says
Louise Radnofsky and agencies
Mon 10 Dec 2007 11.20 EST
Thousands of new offshore wind turbines could power every home in Britain by 2020, the government announced today, as it set out new wind-energy plans.
John Hutton, the business secretary, proposed the creation of up to 33 gigawatts of offshore wind energy at a European energy industry conference in Berlin.
He called for companies to invest in large-scale farm development to generate enough power for up to 25m homes in the next 12 years.
That would require around 7,000 turbines, or one every half-mile, Hutton told the BBC’s Politics Show yesterday.
[…]


wattsupwiththat--2020-11-26--Time: The US Must Regain Global Climate Trust by Offering “Tangible Support”

Will the world give the USA a chance to regain respect as a global climate leader ?
According to time , it depends on John Kerry ’ s diplomacy and how much “ tangible support ” the USA can offer .
Joe Biden Says the U.S. Will Lead on Climate .
But First He Has to Regain World Leaders ’ Trust Joe Biden named former Secretary of State John Kerry to a new top position on global climate policy , a public step toward what the President-elect has promised will be a renaissance in American leadership on the issue .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ a central role in the new administration cheered the news , but both Kerry and Biden have their work cut out for them .
After four years under Donald Trump , the Biden Administration inherits a badly bruised international reputation .
Trump repeatedly denied the science of climate change , rolled back dozens of environmental and emissions-reduction regulations , and earned the derision of nearly 200 nations who co-signed the Paris Agreement on climate change when he announced the United States ’ s withdrawal from the pact six months after taking office .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ era and re-establish the U.S. as a global leader on climate , Biden and Kerry must rapidly accelerate emissions-reduction policies domestically and offer tangible support to partner nations that are making progress abroad .
Crucially , allies say , the U.S. will need to reengage the world with a recognition that Washington can no longer unilaterally dictate the terms of engagement .
“ We have to reenter this field , when we join our allies , with a great sense of humility , ” says Gina McCarthy , the former Environmental Protection Agency @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Natural Resources Defense Council .
“ We have a great deal of trust that we have to rebuild across the world .
”

Guest essay by Eric Worrall
Will the world give the USA a chance to regain respect as a global climate leader? According to time, it depends on John Kerry’s diplomacy and how much “tangible support” the USA can offer.
Joe Biden Says the U.S. Will Lead on Climate. But First He Has to Regain World Leaders’ Trust
BY JUSTIN WORLAND NOVEMBER 24, 2020 8:23 PM EST
Joe Biden named former Secretary of State John Kerry to a new top position on global climate policy, a public step toward what the President-elect has promised will be a renaissance in American leadership on the issue.
Activists who hope climate change will play a central role in the new administration cheered the news, but both Kerry and Biden have their work cut out for them. After four years under Donald Trump, the Biden Administration inherits a badly bruised international reputation. Trump repeatedly denied the science of climate change, rolled back dozens of environmental and emissions-reduction regulations, and earned the derision of nearly 200 nations who co-signed the Paris Agreement on climate change when he announced the United States’s withdrawal from the pact six months after taking office.
…
To turn the page on the Trump era and re-establish the U.S. as a global leader on climate, Biden and Kerry must rapidly accelerate emissions-reduction policies domestically and offer tangible support to partner nations that are making progress abroad. Crucially, allies say, the U.S. will need to reengage the world with a recognition that Washington can no longer unilaterally dictate the terms of engagement. “We have to reenter this field, when we join our allies, with a great sense of humility,” says Gina McCarthy, the former Environmental Protection Agency head who is now the president of the Natural Resources Defense Council. “We have a great deal of trust that we have to rebuild across the world.”
…


Under The Equator

Inspired by my previous posts , Boy Child Girl Child and Sea Levels in the Nino-Nina Cycle , I decided to take a look at what is happening below the sea surface along the Equator .
A commenter pointed me to an Australian archive of past sub-surface analyses , with an unfortunate URL that includes “ oceantemp/pastanal/ ” … but I digress .
These analyses show the longitude on the horizontal axis and the depth on the vertical axis .
Here ’ s their view of the peak of the El Nino in November 1997 .
The black area on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the black area on the left is Africa .
The shallow zone between 90°E—120°E is Indonesia and Borneo .
Figure 1 .
Equatorial Pacific Ocean vertical section temperature analysis for the peak El Nino , November 1997 .
Date is shown in the center .
Top panel shows the “ climatology ” , a term of art meaning the long-term average for the climate variable for the month .
In this case the variable is the temperature distribution .
Middle panel shows the actual temperatures for the month .
And the final panel @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is the actual temperature less the climatology .
This is how much hotter or cooler than average the ocean is in that location that month .
In Figure 1 you can see how the anomalous heat in the eastern Pacific just off of South America extends from the surface down deep , a couple hundred meters .
The “ H ” note shows it peaked at over eight degrees warmer than average .
There ’ s also a corresponding subsurface cool spot to the west of that , which the “ L ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ than average .
Big swings .
Compare that with the situation one year later , November 1998 at the peak of the corresponding La Nina .
Here we can see that the warm water has been moved out and has been replaced by the colder subsurface waters , which have now come to the surface.. And to give myself a larger understanding of the undersea world , here ’ s a movie I made of the month-by-month situation from 1995 to 2008 , when they changed the format .
See the Endnote for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Figure 3 .
Monthly changes in the vertical section temperature analysis .
Always more to learn … please quote whatever you are commenting on , avoids misunderstandings .
Half-moon tonight , crisp and cold .
The deer came by again today .
Hummingbirds were drinking from the flowers .
Life in the forest doesn ’ t care about politics , which seems like a brilliant plan to me these days .
The silence of the woods is my balm and my refuge .
My best regards to all , Endnote : To @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to download the .GIF files .
I do most of my work in the computer program R. If you program , you should learn R. Free , cross-platform , free killer user interface called RStudio , interpreted .
But I digress .
I first needed to create the year/month number combinations used by the Aussies in the URLs of the graphics .
Here ’ s that code .
Everything on a line after a hashmark “ # ” is a comment .
Then I created a folder ( directory ) to store the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to the folder into a variable .
Then I wrote a loop to read each .GIF and write it to the folder .
Comments after the “ # ” in each line .
Once I had the images , the rest I did online .
Upload the images to the Animated GIF Maker , and make an animated GIF .
Upload the animated GIF to CloudConvert , and convert it to MP4 .
Whole thing took me a couple hours .

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach
Inspired by my previous posts, Boy Child Girl Child and Sea Levels in the Nino-Nina Cycle, I decided to take a look at what is happening below the sea surface along the Equator. A commenter pointed me to an Australian archive of past sub-surface analyses, with an unfortunate URL that includes “oceantemp/pastanal/” … but I digress.
These analyses show the longitude on the horizontal axis and the depth on the vertical axis. Here’s their view of the peak of the El Nino in November 1997. The black area on the right is South America, and the black area on the left is Africa. The shallow zone between 90°E—120°E is Indonesia and Borneo.
Figure 1. Equatorial Pacific Ocean vertical section temperature analysis for the peak El Nino, November 1997. Date is shown in the center. Top panel shows the “climatology”, a term of art meaning the long-term average for the climate variable for the month. In this case the variable is the temperature distribution. Middle panel shows the actual temperatures for the month. And the final panel shows the “anomaly”, which is the actual temperature less the climatology. This is how much hotter or cooler than average the ocean is in that location that month.
In Figure 1 you can see how the anomalous heat in the eastern Pacific just off of South America extends from the surface down deep, a couple hundred meters. The “H” note shows it peaked at over eight degrees warmer than average. There’s also a corresponding subsurface cool spot to the west of that, which the “L” note says is some six degrees cooler than average. Big swings.
Compare that with the situation one year later, November 1998 at the peak of the corresponding La Nina.
Figure 2. Equatorial Pacific Ocean vertical section temperature analysis for the peak La Nina, November 1998.
Here we can see that the warm water has been moved out and has been replaced by the colder subsurface waters, which have now come to the surface..
And to give myself a larger understanding of the undersea world, here’s a movie I made of the month-by-month situation from 1995 to 2008, when they changed the format. See the Endnote for details on how I made the movie.
Figure 3. Monthly changes in the vertical section temperature analysis.
Always more to learn … please quote whatever you are commenting on, avoids misunderstandings.
Half-moon tonight, crisp and cold. The deer came by again today. Hummingbirds were drinking from the flowers. Life in the forest doesn’t care about politics, which seems like a brilliant plan to me these days. The silence of the woods is my balm and my refuge.
My best regards to all,
w.
Endnote: To make the movie, first I had to download the .GIF files. I do most of my work in the computer program R. If you program, you should learn R. Free, cross-platform, free killer user interface called RStudio, interpreted. But I digress. I first needed to create the year/month number combinations used by the Aussies in the URLs of the graphics. Here’s that code. Everything on a line after a hashmark “#” is a comment.
allyears=paste0(rep(1995:2020,each=12),twodigit(rep(1:12,26))) # repeats the numbers from 1995 to 2020 twelve times each, and pastes the two-digit representations of the months onto each one head(allyears) #shows the first few data points of the variable [1] "199501" "199502" "199503" "199504" "199505" "199506"
(“twodigit” is a function I wrote because I couldn’t remember the actual code to format a number with two digits.)
twodigit=function(x) { if(is.numeric(x)){ sprintf("%02d",x) # formats numbers } else { format(x,digits = 2) # formats text } }
Then I created a folder (directory) to store the .GIF images, and put the path to the folder into a variable.
dir.create("Aussie Underwater All") pathname="Aussie Underwater All/"
Then I wrote a loop to read each .GIF and write it to the folder. Comments after the “#” in each line.
for (i in 1:length(allyears)){ # cycle through all the years print(paste0(allyears[i])) # prints progress aurl=paste0("http://www.bom.gov.au/archive/oceanography/ocean_anals/IDYOC002/IDYOC002.",allyears[i],".gif") #paste together the URL mygif=image_read(aurl) # read the gif image file at that URL image_write(mygif,paste0(pathname,basename(aurl))) # write the image file to the folder created above. }
Once I had the images, the rest I did online. Upload the images to the Animated GIF Maker, and make an animated GIF. Upload the animated GIF to CloudConvert, and convert it to MP4. Whole thing took me a couple hours.
w.
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wattsupwiththat--2020-11-25--Video: Don’t let the “Climate Grinches” ruin your holiday

A few days ago , the Washington Post ran a story that ranks as one of their worst-ever in terms @ @ @ @ @ Titled “ How climate change is complicating a Thanksgiving staple ” it tells the tale @ @ @ @ @ sauce due to “ climate change ” citing “ Heatwave , drought , lack of @ @ @ @ @ toll on a quintessential Massachusetts crop.
” in the sub-headline .
The story goes on @ @ @ @ @ the “ feelings ” of Massachusetts cranberry farmers who believe that climate change is making @ @ @ @ @ ’ s bad about the story is that it is completely untrue , and objective @ @ @ @ @ .
Heartland Institute Vice President Jim Lakely talks with Senior Fellow Anthony Watts about yet @ @ @ @ @ by the “ mainstream media ” to make us feel guilty about enjoying the holidays @ @ @ @ @ the climate .
Read Anthony Watts ’ story about this at Heartland ’ s Climate @ @ @ @

A few days ago, the Washington Post ran a story that ranks as one of their worst-ever in terms of climate change alarmism. Titled “How climate change is complicating a Thanksgiving staple” it tells the tale of woe about disappearing cranberry sauce due to “climate change” citing “Heatwave, drought, lack of winter ice are taking a toll on a quintessential Massachusetts crop.” in the sub-headline.
The story goes on to give a report on the “feelings” of Massachusetts cranberry farmers who believe that climate change is making their job harder. What’s bad about the story is that it is completely untrue, and objective real-world data smacks it down.
Heartland Institute Vice President Jim Lakely talks with Senior Fellow Anthony Watts about yet another round of annual attempts by the “mainstream media” to make us feel guilty about enjoying the holidays because we are supposedly damaging the climate.
Read Anthony Watts’ story about this at Heartland’s Climate Realism website below.
https://climaterealism.com/2020/11/fu…
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