wattsupwiththat--2020-03-14--Rhode Island Official Admits State’s Climate Lawsuit Is Meant To Wring Money Out Of Big Oil: Court D

Rhode Island Official Admits State’s Climate Lawsuit Is Meant To Wring Money Out Of Big Oil: Court Docs

A Rhode Island official acknowledged in 2019 that the state ’ s climate lawsuit against Exxon Mobil is partially designed to secure a steady stream of income for the state , court documents show .
Rhode Island Department of Environmental Management Director Janet Coit told attendees at a meeting in New York that the state sued the industry to find a “ sustainable funding stream , ” nonprofit group Energy Policy Advocates noted in court documents filed Wednesday .
Energy Policy Advocates discovered a memo through a public information request that revealed handwritten notes from Carla Frisch of the Rocky @ @ @ @ @ @ @ her state ’ s General Assembly is refusing to take decisive action on climate change .
Energy Policy Advocates , a conservative nonprofit , filed an amicus brief Wednesday with the U.S. Court of Appeals for the First Circuit , the court responsible for adjudicating Rhode Island ’ s case against Exxon .
The group says the memos it obtained suggest the case should be heard in federal court .
“ This entry on its face represents a senior official confessing that Rhode Island ’ s climate litigation is in fact a product @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lacking enthusiasm for politically enacting policies , including revenue measures , ” Energy Policy Advocates wrote in the court filing .
“ ( P ) laintiffs seek to use the courts in this manner to seek billions of dollars in revenues , for distribution toward political uses and constituencies , raising of which is properly attempted through the political process , ” Energy Policy Advocates added .
The nonprofit ’ s legal fight comes after Rhode Island Attorney General Peter Kilmartin sued the energy industry in 2018 , arguing oil companies are contributing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Rhode Island Joins AG Crusade To Blame Oil Companies For Climate Change ) Neither the Kilmartin ’ s office , Coit , nor the Rocky Mountain Institute have responded to the Daily Caller News Foundation ’ s request for comment about the nature of Energy Policy Advocates ’ court filing or the documents the nonprofit obtained .
Rhode Island is among the several states and cities to take on Exxon in recent years with mixed results .
A federal judge in California threw out two lawsuits June 25 that sought to do effectively @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to do now : punishing oil companies for supposedly hurting the environment .
San Francisco and Oakland were among a handful of California cities that sued Chevron in February for supposedly contributing to climate change .
Boulder , Colorado , joined the climate lawsuit shortly thereafter , saying the company was partially to blame for wildfires .
Class action firm Hagens Berman Sobol Shapiro LLP handled San Francisco , Oakland and New York City ’ s lawsuit .
Cities pay law firms no upfront cost in exchange for a percentage of any winnings @ @ @ @ @ @ @ earned millions , possibly billions , of dollars in contingency fees depending on the total winnings had the cities won their case .
All told , these three cities are asking oil companies to hand over many billions of dollars .
Hagens is not the only major law firm involved in such legal pursuits .
Sher Edling is representing Rhode Island and Honolulu , which filed a similar lawsuit Tuesday against the energy industry .

From The Daily Caller
Chris White Tech Reporter
March 13, 2020 1:31 PM ET
A Rhode Island official acknowledged in 2019 that the state’s climate lawsuit against Exxon Mobil is partially designed to secure a steady stream of income for the state, court documents show.
Rhode Island Department of Environmental Management Director Janet Coit told attendees at a meeting in New York that the state sued the industry to find a “sustainable funding stream,” nonprofit group Energy Policy Advocates noted in court documents filed Wednesday.
Energy Policy Advocates discovered a memo through a public information request that revealed handwritten notes from Carla Frisch of the Rocky Mountain Institute that show Coit complaining that her state’s General Assembly is refusing to take decisive action on climate change.
Energy Policy Advocates, a conservative nonprofit, filed an amicus brief Wednesday with the U.S. Court of Appeals for the First Circuit, the court responsible for adjudicating Rhode Island’s case against Exxon. The group says the memos it obtained suggest the case should be heard in federal court.
“This entry on its face represents a senior official confessing that Rhode Island’s climate litigation is in fact a product of Rhode Island’s elected representatives lacking enthusiasm for politically enacting policies, including revenue measures,” Energy Policy Advocates wrote in the court filing.
“(P)laintiffs seek to use the courts in this manner to seek billions of dollars in revenues, for distribution toward political uses and constituencies, raising of which is properly attempted through the political process,” Energy Policy Advocates added.
The nonprofit’s legal fight comes after Rhode Island Attorney General Peter Kilmartin sued the energy industry in 2018, arguing oil companies are contributing to climate change. (RELATED: Rhode Island Joins AG Crusade To Blame Oil Companies For Climate Change)
Neither the Kilmartin’s office, Coit, nor the Rocky Mountain Institute have responded to the Daily Caller News Foundation’s request for comment about the nature of Energy Policy Advocates’ court filing or the documents the nonprofit obtained.
Rhode Island is among the several states and cities to take on Exxon in recent years with mixed results.
A federal judge in California threw out two lawsuits June 25 that sought to do effectively the same thing Rhode Island is trying to do now: punishing oil companies for supposedly hurting the environment.
San Francisco and Oakland were among a handful of California cities that sued Chevron in February for supposedly contributing to climate change. Boulder, Colorado, joined the climate lawsuit shortly thereafter, saying the company was partially to blame for wildfires.
Class action firm Hagens Berman Sobol Shapiro LLP handled San Francisco, Oakland and New York City’s lawsuit. Cities pay law firms no upfront cost in exchange for a percentage of any winnings or settlement.
Hagens Berman could have earned millions, possibly billions, of dollars in contingency fees depending on the total winnings had the cities won their case. All told, these three cities are asking oil companies to hand over many billions of dollars.
Hagens is not the only major law firm involved in such legal pursuits. Sher Edling is representing Rhode Island and Honolulu, which filed a similar lawsuit Tuesday against the energy industry.
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wattsupwiththat--2020-03-14--The 11 gaslighting characteristics of the climate debate

This was originally from Psychology Today by Stephanie A. Sarkis Ph.D. but I immediately recognized how this is wholly applicable to the climate debate .
h/t to Joe Bast .
Gaslighting is a manipulation tactic used to gain power .
And it works too well .
You know it ’ s an outright lie .
Yet they are telling you this lie with a straight face .
Why are they so blatant ?
Because they ’ re setting up a precedent .
Once they tell you a huge lie , you ’ re not sure if anything they say is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is the goal .
2 .
They deny they ever said something , even though you have proof .
You know they said they would do something ; you know you heard it .
But they out and out deny it .
It makes you start questioning your reality—maybe they never said that thing .
And the more they do this , the more you question your reality and start accepting theirs .
3 .
They use what is near and dear to you as ammunition .
They know how important your kids @ @ @ @ @ @ @ how important your identity is to you .
So those may be one of the first things they attack .
If you have kids , they tell you that you should not have had those children .
They will tell you ’ d be a worthy person if only you didn ’ t have a long list of negative traits .
They attack the foundation of your being .
4 .
They wear you down over time .
This is one of the insidious things about gaslighting—it is done gradually , over time @ @ @ @ @ @ @ there , a snide comment every so often…and then it starts ramping up .
Even the brightest , most self-aware people can be sucked into gaslighting—it is that effective .
It ’ s the “ frog in the frying pan ” analogy : The heat is turned up slowly , so the frog never realizes what ’ s happening to it .
5 .
Their actions do not match their words .
When dealing with a person or entity that gaslights , look at what they are doing rather than what they are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ nothing ; it is just talk .
What they are doing is the issue .
6 .
They throw in positive reinforcement to confuse you .
This person or entity that is cutting you down , telling you that you don ’ t have value , is now praising you for something you did .
This adds an additional sense of uneasiness .
You think , “ Well maybe they aren ’ t so bad.
” Yes , they are .
This is a calculated attempt to keep you off-kilter—and again , to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ what you were praised for ; it is probably something that served the gaslighter .
article continues after advertisement Gaslighters know that people like having a sense of stability and normalcy .
Their goal is to uproot this and make you constantly question everything .
And humans ’ natural tendency is to look to the person or entity that will help you feel more stable—and that happens to be the gaslighter .
They are a drug user or a cheater , yet they are constantly accusing you of that .
This is done @ @ @ @ @ @ @ defend yourself , and are distracted from the gaslighter ’ s own behavior .
9 .
They try to align people against you .
Gaslighters are masters at manipulating and finding the people they know will stand by them no matter what—and they use these people against you .
They will make comments such as , “ This person knows that you ’ re not right , ” or “ This person knows you ’ re useless too.
” Keep in mind it does not mean that these people actually said these things @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
When the gaslighter uses this tactic it makes you feel like you don ’ t know who to trust or turn to—and that leads you right back to the gaslighter .
And that ’ s exactly what they want : Isolation gives them more control .
10 .
They tell you or others that you are crazy .
This is one of the most effective tools of the gaslighter , because it ’ s dismissive .
The gaslighter knows if they question your sanity , people will not believe you when you @ @ @ @ @ @ @ out-of-control .
It ’ s a master technique .
11 .
They tell you everyone else is a liar .
By telling you that everyone else ( your family , the media ) is a liar , it again makes you question your reality .
You ’ ve never known someone with the audacity to do this , so they must be telling the truth , right ?
No .
It ’ s a manipulation technique .
It makes people turn to the gaslighter for the “ correct ” information—which isn ’ t @ @ @ @

This was originally from Psychology Today by Stephanie A. Sarkis Ph.D. but I immediately recognized how this is wholly applicable to the climate debate. h/t to Joe Bast.
11 Warning Signs of Gaslighting
Gaslighting is a manipulation tactic used to gain power. And it works too well.
1. They tell blatant lies.
You know it’s an outright lie. Yet they are telling you this lie with a straight face. Why are they so blatant? Because they’re setting up a precedent. Once they tell you a huge lie, you’re not sure if anything they say is true. Keeping you unsteady and off-kilter is the goal.
2. They deny they ever said something, even though you have proof.
You know they said they would do something; you know you heard it. But they out and out deny it. It makes you start questioning your reality—maybe they never said that thing. And the more they do this, the more you question your reality and start accepting theirs.
3. They use what is near and dear to you as ammunition.
They know how important your kids are to you, and they know how important your identity is to you. So those may be one of the first things they attack. If you have kids, they tell you that you should not have had those children. They will tell you’d be a worthy person if only you didn’t have a long list of negative traits. They attack the foundation of your being.
4. They wear you down over time.
This is one of the insidious things about gaslighting—it is done gradually, over time. A lie here, a lie there, a snide comment every so often…and then it starts ramping up. Even the brightest, most self-aware people can be sucked into gaslighting—it is that effective. It’s the “frog in the frying pan” analogy: The heat is turned up slowly, so the frog never realizes what’s happening to it.
5. Their actions do not match their words.
When dealing with a person or entity that gaslights, look at what they are doing rather than what they are saying. What they are saying means nothing; it is just talk. What they are doing is the issue.
6. They throw in positive reinforcement to confuse you.
This person or entity that is cutting you down, telling you that you don’t have value, is now praising you for something you did. This adds an additional sense of uneasiness. You think, “Well maybe they aren’t so bad.” Yes, they are. This is a calculated attempt to keep you off-kilter—and again, to question your reality. Also look at what you were praised for; it is probably something that served the gaslighter. article continues after advertisement
7. They know confusion weakens people.
Gaslighters know that people like having a sense of stability and normalcy. Their goal is to uproot this and make you constantly question everything. And humans’ natural tendency is to look to the person or entity that will help you feel more stable—and that happens to be the gaslighter.
8. They project.
They are a drug user or a cheater, yet they are constantly accusing you of that. This is done so often that you start trying to defend yourself, and are distracted from the gaslighter’s own behavior.
9. They try to align people against you.
Gaslighters are masters at manipulating and finding the people they know will stand by them no matter what—and they use these people against you. They will make comments such as, “This person knows that you’re not right,” or “This person knows you’re useless too.” Keep in mind it does not mean that these people actually said these things. A gaslighter is a constant liar. When the gaslighter uses this tactic it makes you feel like you don’t know who to trust or turn to—and that leads you right back to the gaslighter. And that’s exactly what they want: Isolation gives them more control.
10. They tell you or others that you are crazy.
This is one of the most effective tools of the gaslighter, because it’s dismissive. The gaslighter knows if they question your sanity, people will not believe you when you tell them the gaslighter is abusive or out-of-control. It’s a master technique.
11. They tell you everyone else is a liar.
By telling you that everyone else (your family, the media) is a liar, it again makes you question your reality. You’ve never known someone with the audacity to do this, so they must be telling the truth, right? No. It’s a manipulation technique. It makes people turn to the gaslighter for the “correct” information—which isn’t correct information at all
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wattsupwiththat--2020-03-14--The Conversation: There is no evidence that ‘global warming’ was rebranded as ‘climate change’

The Conversation suggests there is no evidence climate change was rebranded as climate change .
But their flawed effort to refute this argument is evidence the “ anti-Greta ” Naomi Seibt is having an impact .
There is no evidence that ‘ global warming ’ was rebranded as ‘ climate change ’ Climate change denial is a moving target .
In the past , it consisted of a fully fledged denial of any scientific evidence that the world was warming .
More recently , it has evolved into a creative mix of strategies .
Deniers today often contradict part of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ while pinning the blame for the rest – anything completely undeniable , even to them – on developing countries , particularly India and China .
Over the past few weeks , a new figure has emerged : Naomi Seibt .
Seibt , the so-called anti-Greta Thunberg , a 19-year-old from Münster in Germany , rapidly gained media attention for her call for “ climate realism ” , claiming that climate change science really is not science at all , and for this reason , there is no need to panic .
The young @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lively US denier scene and was – just months after publishing her first YouTube video – invited to speak at the high-profile Conservative Political Action Conference 2020 ( CPAC ) and made a member of the Heartland Institute , a thinktank known for its ties to the fossil-fuel industry .
What was perhaps most interesting , was her use of a recurrent argument on the supposed “ historical rebranding ” of climate change .
The theory goes as follows : in the past , everyone used the term global warming to describe this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was , in fact , not heating , global warming was “ rebranded ” to climate change in a sophisticated cover-up .
On the other hand , newspapers behaved somewhat differently .
In both The Guardian and The Times , climate change is generally the most common term , but the two are used interchangeably until 2005 when again we see a breaking point .
Despite this , climate change was in use long before any possible rebranding .
PHD candidate Giulio Corsi identifies a 2005 breaking point during which use of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ media surged , but does not offer an explanation for this breaking point , other than a vague suggestion that the surge in the use of “ climate change ” occurred because 2005 was a “ a watershed year for climate governance ” .
The evidence Corsi overlooks or ignores is an intriguing Climategate email from 2004 , an email which suggests the surge in use of the term “ climate change ” post 2004 was an act of deliberate rebranding .
date : Sat , 21 Feb 2004 10:53:26 -0000 from : @ @ @ @ @ @ @ : FWD : Abrupt Climate Change to : “ ‘ Asher Minns ' ” Dear Asher , and all , I think this is a real problem , and I agree with Nick that climate change might be a better labelling than global warming .
But somehow I also feel that one needs to add the dimension of the earth system , and the fact that human beings for the first time ever are able to impact on that system .
That is why the IGBP in a recent publication “ Global Change @ @ @ @ @ @ @ we now live in the anthropocene period .
Climate change is one of the central elements of this process , but not the only one : loss of biological diversity , water stress , land degradation with loss of topsoil , etc etc all form part of this – and they are all linked in some way or another .
Therefore a central message probably has to be that humans are now interfering with extremely large and heavy global systems , of which we know relatively little : we are in a totally @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and our impact added to all the natural variations that exist risks to unsettle subtle balances and create tensions within the systems which might also lead to “ flip-over ” effects with short-term consequences that might be very dangerous .
And then , the good old precautionary principle must be guiding our effort .
During the cold war , enormous resources were put into missiles , airplanes , and other military equipment to check Soviet expansion and make containment policy credible – in the firm hope that all this equipment would never have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ t , and nobody complained about the costs .
Now , in the face of a different , but clearly distinguishable global threat “ more dangerous than terrorism ” the cost issue surfaces all the time .
Somehow we all need to help in creating an understanding that the threat of global change is real and that we need to develop a new paradigm of looking at the world and the future : this is not just a scientific or technological issue .
It involves important philosophical and ethical considerations where some @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
—–Original Message—– From : Asher Minns [ mailto : redacted ] On Behalf Of Asher Minns Sent : 20 February 2004 17:01 To : redacted ; redacted Subject : RE : FWD : Abrupt Climate Change In my experience , global warming freezing is already a bit of a public relations problem with the media , which can become public perception .
It provides a new story for the old news that is climate change – a story that has been running since 1985/88 .
Prominent journalist Andy Revkin who at the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was part of the 4141.txt Climategate email chain , see the full climate gate 4141.txt email for details of his involvement in the discussion .
It is an unequivocal fact that the terms “ climate change ” and “ global warming ” have both been in use for a long time .
The IPCC , the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change , was created in 1988 .
Giulio Corsi ’ s absurd suggestion that skeptics claim the phrase “ climate change ” was invented to replace “ global warming ” is a fallacious @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is evidence that there was a public rebranding effort .
Prominent scientists , climate communicators and journalists were privately worried the phrase “ global warming ” was causing PR problems , so they agreed to start using the phrase “ climate change ” instead .
The result , unsurprisingly , was a surge in media use of the phrase “ climate change ” .
I would love to know how Giulio Corsi , a Cambridge educated PHD candidate text mining expert , managed to overlook historical evidence which contradicts his claims .
But @ @ @ @ @ @ @ my breath waiting for an answer .

Guest essay by Eric Worrall
The Conversation suggests there is no evidence climate change was rebranded as climate change. But their flawed effort to refute this argument is evidence the “anti-Greta” Naomi Seibt is having an impact.
There is no evidence that ‘global warming’ was rebranded as ‘climate change’ March 13, 2020 1.14am AEDT Giulio Corsi
PhD Candidate, University of Cambridge Climate change denial is a moving target. In the past, it consisted of a fully fledged denial of any scientific evidence that the world was warming. More recently, it has evolved into a creative mix of strategies. Deniers today often contradict part of the scientific basis for climate change, while pinning the blame for the rest – anything completely undeniable, even to them – on developing countries, particularly India and China. Over the past few weeks, a new figure has emerged: Naomi Seibt. Seibt, the so-called anti-Greta Thunberg, a 19-year-old from Münster in Germany, rapidly gained media attention for her call for “climate realism”, claiming that climate change science really is not science at all, and for this reason, there is no need to panic. The young activist immediately caught the eye of the lively US denier scene and was – just months after publishing her first YouTube video – invited to speak at the high-profile Conservative Political Action Conference 2020 (CPAC) and made a member of the Heartland Institute, a thinktank known for its ties to the fossil-fuel industry. … What was perhaps most interesting, was her use of a recurrent argument on the supposed “historical rebranding” of climate change. The theory goes as follows: in the past, everyone used the term global warming to describe this phenomenon, but seeing that the planet was, in fact, not heating, global warming was “rebranded” to climate change in a sophisticated cover-up. … On the other hand, newspapers behaved somewhat differently. In both The Guardian and The Times, climate change is generally the most common term, but the two are used interchangeably until 2005 when again we see a breaking point. Despite this, climate change was in use long before any possible rebranding. … Read more: https://theconversation.com/there-is-no-evidence-that-global-warming-was-rebranded-as-climate-change-133213
PHD candidate Giulio Corsi identifies a 2005 breaking point during which use of the phrase “climate change” in the media surged, but does not offer an explanation for this breaking point, other than a vague suggestion that the surge in the use of “climate change” occurred because 2005 was a “a watershed year for climate governance”.
The evidence Corsi overlooks or ignores is an intriguing Climategate email from 2004, an email which suggests the surge in use of the term “climate change” post 2004 was an act of deliberate rebranding.
date: Sat, 21 Feb 2004 10:53:26 -0000
from: “Bo Kjellen”
subject: RE: FWD: Abrupt Climate Change
to: “‘Asher Minns'”
Dear Asher, and all, I think this is a real problem, and I agree with Nick that climate change might be a better labelling than global warming. But somehow I also feel that one needs to add the dimension of the earth system, and the fact that human beings for the first time ever are able to impact on that system. That is why the IGBP in a recent publication “Global Change and the Earth System” underline that we now live in the anthropocene period. Climate change is one of the central elements of this process, but not the only one: loss of biological diversity, water stress, land degradation with loss of topsoil, etc etc all form part of this – and they are all linked in some way or another. Therefore a central message probably has to be that humans are now interfering with extremely large and heavy global systems, of which we know relatively little: we are in a totally new situation for the human species, and our impact added to all the natural variations that exist risks to unsettle subtle balances and create tensions within the systems which might also lead to “flip-over” effects with short-term consequences that might be very dangerous. And then, the good old precautionary principle must be guiding our effort. During the cold war, enormous resources were put into missiles, airplanes, and other military equipment to check Soviet expansion and make containment policy credible – in the firm hope that all this equipment would never have to be used. And it wasn’t, and nobody complained about the costs. Now, in the face of a different, but clearly distinguishable global threat “more dangerous than terrorism” the cost issue surfaces all the time. Somehow we all need to help in creating an understanding that the threat of global change is real and that we need to develop a new paradigm of looking at the world and the future: this is not just a scientific or technological issue. It involves important philosophical and ethical considerations where some fundamental value systems have to be challenged. Bo —–Original Message—–
From: Asher Minns [mailto: redacted] On Behalf Of Asher Minns Sent: 20 February 2004 17:01
To: redacted; redacted
Subject: RE: FWD: Abrupt Climate Change In my experience, global warming freezing is already a bit of a public relations problem with the media, which can become public perception. It provides a new story for the old news that is climate change – a story that has been running since 1985/88. … Read more: Climategate Email 4141.txt
Prominent journalist Andy Revkin who at the time worked for New York Times, was part of the 4141.txt Climategate email chain, see the full climate gate 4141.txt email for details of his involvement in the discussion.
It is an unequivocal fact that the terms “climate change” and “global warming” have both been in use for a long time. The IPCC, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, was created in 1988. Giulio Corsi’s absurd suggestion that skeptics claim the phrase “climate change” was invented to replace “global warming” is a fallacious strawman.
But the 2004 Climategate email is evidence that there was a public rebranding effort. Prominent scientists, climate communicators and journalists were privately worried the phrase “global warming” was causing PR problems, so they agreed to start using the phrase “climate change” instead. The result, unsurprisingly, was a surge in media use of the phrase “climate change”.
I would love to know how Giulio Corsi, a Cambridge educated PHD candidate text mining expert, managed to overlook historical evidence which contradicts his claims. But I’m not going to hold my breath waiting for an answer.
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wattsupwiththat--2020-03-14--First-time direct proof of chemical reactions in particulates

Researchers at the Paul Scherrer Institute PSI have developed a new method to analyse particulate matter more precisely than ever before .
With its help , they disproved an established doctrine : that molecules in aerosols undergo no further chemical transformations because they are enclosed in other suspended particulate matter .
In the smog chamber at PSI , they analysed chemical compounds directly in aerosols and observed how molecules dissociated and thus released , for example , gaseous formic acid into the atmosphere .
These findings will help to improve the understanding of global processes involved in cloud formation and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ models .
The results of this investigation are published today in the journal Science Advances .
Anyone who takes a walk through a coniferous forest and enjoys the tangy , refreshing air is inhaling α-pinene .
This is one of the volatile organic compounds in the oils of conifer trees , and it also occurs in eucalyptus and rosemary .
The smell triggers pleasant feelings in most people .
Less pleasant is that the compound changes in the atmosphere , under the influence of radicals , into other compounds , so-called highly oxidised @ @ @ @ @ @ @ reactive , to some extent harmful substances .
They have only recently come under scrutiny by atmospheric researchers , and their role , for example in cloud formation , is not yet understood .
These highly oxidized organic molecules are less volatile than the starting substance α-pinene and therefore condense easily .
Together with dust particles and other solid and liquid substances in the air , they form what we call particulate matter or aerosols .
“ Up to now it was thought that such molecules are protected from further transformations once they @ @ @ @ @ @ @ says Andre Prévôt of the Laboratory of Atmospheric Chemistry at PSI .
“ It was believed that they then would not change any more , but would simply spread out over the atmosphere and eventually rain down.
” This widespread opinion does not correspond to reality , however , as Prévôt and his fellow researchers at PSI showed : “ The reactions continue , even in the particulate matter.
” The molecules remain reactive and either react with each other to form larger particles or disassociate , thereby releasing for example formic acid @ @ @ @ @ @ @ only in ants and stinging nettles , but also in the atmosphere , where it is an important indicator of air pollution .
The PSI researchers ’ observations should help to improve simulation models , such as those for cloud formation and air pollution .
The models simulate what happens in the atmosphere to predict , for example , how a reduction in certain emissions will affect air quality .
From the aerosol into the measuring device For the first time , PSI researchers analysed chemical compounds directly in particulate matter under atmospheric @ @ @ @ @ @ @ PSI smog chamber , in which processes in the atmosphere can be simulated .
The researchers injected a droplet of α-pinene into the chamber and caused the compound to react with ozone .
Over a period of 15 hours , they observed which chemical compounds formed from α-pinene and which disappeared again afterwards .
This was made possible by a new analytic device for atmospheric measurements that the researchers developed in cooperation with the company Tofwerk in Thun , Switzerland : a so-called EESI-TOF ( extractive electrospray ionisation time-of-flight mass spectrometer ) .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the aerosol , ” explains atmospheric chemist Urs Baltensperger .
“ Previous measurement methods , on the other hand , chop up the molecules into smaller fragments at high temperatures.
” The new device ionises without fragmentation .
“ We can record each molecule separately.
” Tofwerk has now brought the device to market with the help of PSI , so that other atmospheric researchers can also benefit from the new method .
The new analytic method can be used not only in the laboratory , but also directly on site .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ summer of 2019 , PSI researchers used it to investigate aerosols in the air in Zurich .
As it turned out , a good third of Zurich ’ s particulate matter in summer consists solely of reaction products of α-pinene and similar molecules .
In winter , however , emissions from wood-burning systems and their reaction products come to the fore .
The researchers have planned further measurement campaigns in China and India .
There they want to analyse which molecules form in the air of a city with more than a million @ @ @ @ @ @ @ published on 13 March 2020 in the journal Science Advances .
The Paul Scherrer Institute PSI develops , builds and operates large , complex research facilities and makes them available to the national and international research community .
The institute ’ s own key research priorities are in the fields of matter and materials , energy and environment and human health .
PSI is committed to the training of future generations .
Therefore about one quarter of our staff are post-docs , post-graduates or apprentices .
Altogether PSI employs 2100 people , thus @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The annual budget amounts to approximately CHF 407 million .
PSI is part of the ETH Domain , with the other members being the two Swiss Federal Institutes of Technology , ETH Zurich and EPFL Lausanne , as well as Eawag ( Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology ) , Empa ( Swiss Federal Laboratories for Materials Science and Technology ) and WSL ( Swiss Federal Institute for Forest , Snow and Landscape Research ) .
On the fate of oxygenated organic molecules in atmospheric aerosol particles V. Pospisilova , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , I. El Haddad , C. Mohr , W. Huang , L. Heikkinen , M. Xiao , J. Dommen , A. S. H. Prévôt , U. Baltensperger , J. G. Slowik Science Advances , 13 March 2020 ( online ) DOI : 10.1126/sciadv.aax8922 An extractive electrospray ionization time-of-flight mass spectrometer ( EESI-TOF ) for online measurement of atmospheric aerosol particles F. D. Lopez-Hilfiker , V. Pospisilova , W. Huang , M. Kalberer , C. Mohr , G. Stefenelli , J .
A. Thornton , U. Baltensperger , A. S. H. Prévôt , J.
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ September 2019 ( online ) DOI : 10.5194/amt-12-4867-2019 Organic aerosol source apportionment in Zurich using an extractive electrospray ionization time-of-flight mass spectrometer ( EESI-TOF-MS ) – Part 1 : Biogenic influences and day-night chemistry in summer G. Stefenelli , V. Pospisilova , F. D. Lopez-Hilfiker , K. R. Daellenbach , C. Hüglin , Y. Tong , U. Baltensperger , A. S. H. Prévôt , J. G. Slowik Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics , 10 December 2019 ( online ) DOI : 10.5194/acp-19-14825-2019 Organic aerosol source apportionment in Zurich using an extractive electrospray ionization time-of-flight @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2 : Biomass burning influences in winter L. Qi , M. Chen , G. Stefenelli , V. Pospisilova , Y. Tong , A. Bertrand , C. Hueglin , X. Ge , U. Baltensperger , A. S. H. Prévôt , J. G. Slowik Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics , 20 June 2019 ( online ) DOI : 10.5194/acp-19-8037-2019

Paul Scherrer Institute
Researchers at the Paul Scherrer Institute PSI have developed a new method to analyse particulate matter more precisely than ever before. With its help, they disproved an established doctrine: that molecules in aerosols undergo no further chemical transformations because they are enclosed in other suspended particulate matter. In the smog chamber at PSI, they analysed chemical compounds directly in aerosols and observed how molecules dissociated and thus released, for example, gaseous formic acid into the atmosphere. These findings will help to improve the understanding of global processes involved in cloud formation and air pollution and to refine the corresponding models. The results of this investigation are published today in the journal Science Advances.
Anyone who takes a walk through a coniferous forest and enjoys the tangy, refreshing air is inhaling α-pinene. This is one of the volatile organic compounds in the oils of conifer trees, and it also occurs in eucalyptus and rosemary. The smell triggers pleasant feelings in most people. Less pleasant is that the compound changes in the atmosphere, under the influence of radicals, into other compounds, so-called highly oxidised organic molecules. Some of these are reactive, to some extent harmful substances. They have only recently come under scrutiny by atmospheric researchers, and their role, for example in cloud formation, is not yet understood.
These highly oxidized organic molecules are less volatile than the starting substance α-pinene and therefore condense easily. Together with dust particles and other solid and liquid substances in the air, they form what we call particulate matter or aerosols.
“Up to now it was thought that such molecules are protected from further transformations once they have landed in particulate matter,” says Andre Prévôt of the Laboratory of Atmospheric Chemistry at PSI. “It was believed that they then would not change any more, but would simply spread out over the atmosphere and eventually rain down.”
This widespread opinion does not correspond to reality, however, as Prévôt and his fellow researchers at PSI showed: “The reactions continue, even in the particulate matter.” The molecules remain reactive and either react with each other to form larger particles or disassociate, thereby releasing for example formic acid. This common compound is found not only in ants and stinging nettles, but also in the atmosphere, where it is an important indicator of air pollution.
The PSI researchers’ observations should help to improve simulation models, such as those for cloud formation and air pollution. The models simulate what happens in the atmosphere to predict, for example, how a reduction in certain emissions will affect air quality.
From the aerosol into the measuring device
For the first time, PSI researchers analysed chemical compounds directly in particulate matter under atmospheric conditions. For this they used the PSI smog chamber, in which processes in the atmosphere can be simulated. The researchers injected a droplet of α-pinene into the chamber and caused the compound to react with ozone. Over a period of 15 hours, they observed which chemical compounds formed from α-pinene and which disappeared again afterwards.
This was made possible by a new analytic device for atmospheric measurements that the researchers developed in cooperation with the company Tofwerk in Thun, Switzerland: a so-called EESI-TOF (extractive electrospray ionisation time-of-flight mass spectrometer). “It also detects larger molecules directly in the aerosol,” explains atmospheric chemist Urs Baltensperger. “Previous measurement methods, on the other hand, chop up the molecules into smaller fragments at high temperatures.” The new device ionises without fragmentation. “We can record each molecule separately.”
Tofwerk has now brought the device to market with the help of PSI, so that other atmospheric researchers can also benefit from the new method.
Measurements in Zurich
The new analytic method can be used not only in the laboratory, but also directly on site.
During the winter of 2018/19 and the summer of 2019, PSI researchers used it to investigate aerosols in the air in Zurich.
As it turned out, a good third of Zurich’s particulate matter in summer consists solely of reaction products of α-pinene and similar molecules. In winter, however, emissions from wood-burning systems and their reaction products come to the fore.
The researchers have planned further measurement campaigns in China and India. There they want to analyse which molecules form in the air of a city with more than a million inhabitants.
###
The research results are being published on 13 March 2020 in the journal Science Advances.
Text: Paul Scherrer Institute / Brigitte Osterath
About PSI
The Paul Scherrer Institute PSI develops, builds and operates large, complex research facilities and makes them available to the national and international research community. The institute’s own key research priorities are in the fields of matter and materials, energy and environment and human health. PSI is committed to the training of future generations. Therefore about one quarter of our staff are post-docs, post-graduates or apprentices. Altogether PSI employs 2100 people, thus being the largest research institute in Switzerland. The annual budget amounts to approximately CHF 407 million. PSI is part of the ETH Domain, with the other members being the two Swiss Federal Institutes of Technology, ETH Zurich and EPFL Lausanne, as well as Eawag (Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology), Empa (Swiss Federal Laboratories for Materials Science and Technology) and WSL (Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research).
Original publication
On the fate of oxygenated organic molecules in atmospheric aerosol particles
V. Pospisilova, F. D. Lopez-Hilfiker, D. M. Bell, I. El Haddad, C. Mohr, W. Huang, L. Heikkinen,
M. Xiao, J. Dommen, A. S. H. Prévôt, U. Baltensperger, J. G. Slowik
Science Advances, 13 March 2020 (online)
DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aax8922
Further information
An extractive electrospray ionization time-of-flight mass spectrometer (EESI-TOF) for online measurement of atmospheric aerosol particles
F. D. Lopez-Hilfiker, V. Pospisilova, W. Huang, M. Kalberer, C. Mohr, G. Stefenelli, J. A. Thornton, U. Baltensperger, A. S. H. Prévôt, J. G. Slowik
Atmospheric Measurement Techniques, 11 September 2019 (online)
DOI: 10.5194/amt-12-4867-2019
Organic aerosol source apportionment in Zurich using an extractive electrospray ionization time-of-flight mass spectrometer (EESI-TOF-MS) – Part 1: Biogenic influences and day-night chemistry in summer
G. Stefenelli, V. Pospisilova, F. D. Lopez-Hilfiker, K. R. Daellenbach, C. Hüglin, Y. Tong, U. Baltensperger, A. S. H. Prévôt, J. G. Slowik
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 10 December 2019 (online)
DOI: 10.5194/acp-19-14825-2019
Organic aerosol source apportionment in Zurich using an extractive electrospray ionization time-of-flight mass spectrometer (EESI-TOF-MS) – Part 2: Biomass burning influences in winter
L. Qi, M. Chen, G. Stefenelli, V. Pospisilova, Y. Tong, A. Bertrand, C. Hueglin, X. Ge, U. Baltensperger, A. S. H. Prévôt, J. G. Slowik
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 20 June 2019 (online)
DOI: 10.5194/acp-19-8037-2019
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wattsupwiththat--2020-03-14--The Math Of Epidemics

The Math Of Epidemics

Watts Up With That is about more than just the climate .
It ’ s also about interesting things in the world .
So if you ’ re looking for just climate , this isn ’ t the post for you .
However , it ’ s an interesting peregrination through the world of the mathematics of illness .
We ’ ve been hearing a lot about “ exponential growth ” in relation to the cases , spread , and mortality of the Wuhan Virus .
And to be sure , it is indeed a global health crisis , one @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The curious part is , “ exponential growth ” doesn ’ t actually describe the progress of a given disease .
Exponential growth never stops—it just gets larger and larger , going up and up without end .
But that ’ s not what happens with a disease .
For example , here ’ s what has been happening with the total number of Wuhan Virus cases in South Korea .
Figure 1 .
South Korean total cases of Wuhan Virus since the beginning of the epidemic .
SOURCE We see the same @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of deaths in China .
Figure 2 .
Total deaths in China from the Wuhan Virus since the illness took hold .
SOURCE Now , this particular “ s-shaped ” curve is called a “ Gompertz Curve ” .
It is a curious curve , in that it is not symmetrical .
It goes up faster than it levels off .
Here ’ s an example .
Figure 3 .
A typical Gompertz Curve , which describes the evolution of the number of total cases or the number of total deaths in an @ @ @ @ @ @ @ d see how well those two graphs in Figures 1 & 2 could be fit by a Gompertz Curve .
First , here ’ s the graph of the South Korean total cases , along with the best-fit Gompertz Curve : Figure 4 .
Total Wuhan Virus cases , South Korea , along with the best-fit Gompertz curve for the data .
You can see why the Gompertz Curve is used to describe epidemics—it ’ s a very good fit to real-world epidemiological data .
And because any given Gompertz Curve ends up @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ t exceed , it also allows us to estimate the part of the curve that hasn ’ t happened yet .
So far , there have been some 7,362 cases in South Korea .
The Gompertz Curve estimates that the final total will be on the order of some 8,100 cases or so .
Now , that ’ s not a hard number , of course .
All kinds of things can happen to bend the curve either up or down .
But it ’ s better than just making a blind @ @ @ @ @ @ @ same kind of look , data plus best-fit Gompertz Curve , but at the deaths in China .
Figure 5 .
Total Wuhan Virus deaths , China , along with the best-fit Gompertz curve for the data .
Again , with the same caveats as before , we can take an educated guess at what the total number of deaths is likely to be .
By the end , the Gompertz Curve estimates about 3,500 deaths .
Finally , let ’ s take a look at the deaths in South Korea .
It @ @ @ @ @ @ @ still happening , so this will be more uncertain .
Figure 6 .
Total Wuhan Virus deaths , South Korea , along with the best-fit Gompertz curve for the data .
Although the uncertainty in this one is greater , it looks at present like the final total of deaths in South Korea will be on the order of one hundred , give or take .
On my planet at least , this is very good news .
Deaths in China look like they will be on the order of 3,500 lives lost @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to peaking .
And although it ’ s early to do this kind of analysis on the number of deaths in South Korea , to date there have only been 60 deaths , and the best fit Gompertz Curve peaks out at a hundred deaths .
Please be clear , though , that I ’ m not minimizing the danger .
A virus of this nature can do immense harm if we don ’ t stay ahead of it .
What I ’ m saying is that China and South Korea show that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
So let me suggest that we take all precautions , wash hands , social distancing , canceling large gatherings , testing as and when required , self-quarantine , it ’ s very important to slow the virus down … and that we also dial way back on the hysteria and the politicization of the issue .
I assure you , assigning blame to one political party or the other and buying six cases of toilet paper won ’ t help end the epidemic .
Although I must confess , thanks to the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of toilet paper .
I read that it ’ s because when one person sneezes , a hundred people soil their underpants … so don ’ t be one of them .
Here on my hillside , I don ’ t need social distancing .
I ’ m a hermit anyhow , have been for a while now .
I hate going to town , and I love my forest home .
The plum trees in our entry were fooled into blossoming by the warm dry February .
But then the plum trees @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The ground underneath them looked like a local snowfall , there was not a blossom left on the limbs … we ’ ll see if we get any plums in the fall .
I spent the day using the weedwhacker to give a haircut to the flowers and greenery growing up through the bricks on the patio I built … perhaps I should have put down geotextile fabric , but I do like the way the plants never stop shouldering their way up through the tiny crevices .
I take it as a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ no matter the obstacles .
My best to all , wash your hands , stay well in these parlous times .
As Usual : I ask that when you comment you quote the exact words that you are responding to .
This avoids endless misunderstandings and disagreements .
Data : All of the data is from the Worldometer site .
For Math Geeks Like Me : The Gompertz Curve is defined as On Political Correctness : Yes , I know that the wokerati have taken up the cry that calling it the “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Virus ” is RACIST !
!
!
, their go-to accusation to try to discount anyone they don ’ t like .
Consider it my small blow for freedom of speech and not bowing to political pressure .
Me , I ’ m the least PC guy imaginable , and I was brought up in a household where racism was simply not tolerated in any form , so trying to bust me for being RACIST !
!
just doesn ’ t work .
I know who I am .
And if you think @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this is RACIST !
!
!
actually believe it and it ’ s not just sleazy political maneuvering , consider the following two tweets , six weeks apart : However , if you insist on taking that route , before you bust me for calling it the Wuhan Virus because it originated in Wuhan , please let me know your racism-free politically 100 % correct alternative names for each of the following illnesses , all of which are named for their place of origination : I mean , we don ’ t want @ @ @ @ @ @ @ people of St. Louis or the inhabitants of the Rocky Mountains , do we ?
…

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach
Watts Up With That is about more than just the climate. It’s also about interesting things in the world. So if you’re looking for just climate, this isn’t the post for you. However, it’s an interesting peregrination through the world of the mathematics of illness.
We’ve been hearing a lot about “exponential growth” in relation to the cases, spread, and mortality of the Wuhan Virus. And to be sure, it is indeed a global health crisis, one we need to take very seriously.
The curious part is, “exponential growth” doesn’t actually describe the progress of a given disease. Exponential growth never stops—it just gets larger and larger, going up and up without end. But that’s not what happens with a disease.
For example, here’s what has been happening with the total number of Wuhan Virus cases in South Korea.
Figure 1. South Korean total cases of Wuhan Virus since the beginning of the epidemic. SOURCE
We see the same shape of curve regarding the total number of deaths in China.
Figure 2. Total deaths in China from the Wuhan Virus since the illness took hold. SOURCE
Now, this particular “s-shaped” curve is called a “Gompertz Curve”. It is a curious curve, in that it is not symmetrical. It goes up faster than it levels off. Here’s an example.
Figure 3. A typical Gompertz Curve, which describes the evolution of the number of total cases or the number of total deaths in an epidemic.
So I thought I’d see how well those two graphs in Figures 1 & 2 could be fit by a Gompertz Curve. First, here’s the graph of the South Korean total cases, along with the best-fit Gompertz Curve:
Figure 4. Total Wuhan Virus cases, South Korea, along with the best-fit Gompertz curve for the data.
You can see why the Gompertz Curve is used to describe epidemics—it’s a very good fit to real-world epidemiological data. And because any given Gompertz Curve ends up at some maximum value that it doesn’t exceed, it also allows us to estimate the part of the curve that hasn’t happened yet. So far, there have been some 7,362 cases in South Korea. The Gompertz Curve estimates that the final total will be on the order of some 8,100 cases or so.
Now, that’s not a hard number, of course. All kinds of things can happen to bend the curve either up or down. But it’s better than just making a blind guess.
Next, here is the same kind of look, data plus best-fit Gompertz Curve, but at the deaths in China.
Figure 5. Total Wuhan Virus deaths, China, along with the best-fit Gompertz curve for the data.
Again, with the same caveats as before, we can take an educated guess at what the total number of deaths is likely to be. By the end, the Gompertz Curve estimates about 3,500 deaths.
Finally, let’s take a look at the deaths in South Korea. It’s still early, deaths are still happening, so this will be more uncertain.
Figure 6. Total Wuhan Virus deaths, South Korea, along with the best-fit Gompertz curve for the data.
Although the uncertainty in this one is greater, it looks at present like the final total of deaths in South Korea will be on the order of one hundred, give or take.
Conclusions
On my planet at least, this is very good news. Deaths in China look like they will be on the order of 3,500 lives lost. Cases in South Korea are near to peaking. And although it’s early to do this kind of analysis on the number of deaths in South Korea, to date there have only been 60 deaths, and the best fit Gompertz Curve peaks out at a hundred deaths.
Please be clear, though, that I’m not minimizing the danger. A virus of this nature can do immense harm if we don’t stay ahead of it. What I’m saying is that China and South Korea show that we indeed can stay ahead of it.
So let me suggest that we take all precautions, wash hands, social distancing, canceling large gatherings, testing as and when required, self-quarantine, it’s very important to slow the virus down … and that we also dial way back on the hysteria and the politicization of the issue. I assure you, assigning blame to one political party or the other and buying six cases of toilet paper won’t help end the epidemic. Although I must confess, thanks to the web I finally understand the panic buying of toilet paper. I read that it’s because when one person sneezes, a hundred people soil their underpants … so don’t be one of them.
Here on my hillside, I don’t need social distancing. I’m a hermit anyhow, have been for a while now. I hate going to town, and I love my forest home. The plum trees in our entry were fooled into blossoming by the warm dry February.
But then the plum trees got surprised by the March rains. The ground underneath them looked like a local snowfall, there was not a blossom left on the limbs … we’ll see if we get any plums in the fall.
I spent the day using the weedwhacker to give a haircut to the flowers and greenery growing up through the bricks on the patio I built … perhaps I should have put down geotextile fabric, but I do like the way the plants never stop shouldering their way up through the tiny crevices. I take it as a sign of hope, that life endures no matter the obstacles.
My best to all, wash your hands, stay well in these parlous times.
w.
As Usual: I ask that when you comment you quote the exact words that you are responding to. This avoids endless misunderstandings and disagreements.
Data: All of the data is from the Worldometer site.
For Math Geeks Like Me: The Gompertz Curve is defined as
y(t) = α * exp(-β * exp(-k * t))
where
t = time alpha = upper asymptote beta = growth displacement k = growth rate
On Political Correctness: Yes, I know that the wokerati have taken up the cry that calling it the “Chinese Coronavirus” or the “Wuhan Virus” is RACIST!!!, their go-to accusation to try to discount anyone they don’t like. Consider it my small blow for freedom of speech and not bowing to political pressure. Me, I’m the least PC guy imaginable, and I was brought up in a household where racism was simply not tolerated in any form, so trying to bust me for being RACIST!! just doesn’t work. I know who I am.
And if you think that the people who are claiming that this is RACIST!!! actually believe it and it’s not just sleazy political maneuvering, consider the following two tweets, six weeks apart:
Followed by …
However, if you insist on taking that route, before you bust me for calling it the Wuhan Virus because it originated in Wuhan, please let me know your racism-free politically 100% correct alternative names for each of the following illnesses, all of which are named for their place of origination:
Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever
Lyme Disease
Marburg Fever
West Nile Virus
Valley Fever
Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome (MERS)
Ebola Virus
German Measles
Lassa Fever
Ross River Fever
La Crosse Encephalitis
Legionnaire’s Disease
St. Louis Encephalitis
Heartland Virus
Bornholm Disease
Junin Virus
Nipah Virus
Rift Valley Fever
Zika Virus
Norovirus
I mean, we don’t want to be RACIST!! regarding the people of St. Louis or the inhabitants of the Rocky Mountains, do we? …
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