wattsupwiththat--2020-12-21--Reef Heresy? And the Importance of Asking Questions

I am so privileged to have written the introduction to Peter Ridd ’ s new book , ‘ Reef Heresy ?
’ .
In it I explain that it is of great concern to both Peter , and myself , that those who claim the Great Barrier Reef to be in terminal decline are so unwilling to engage in any form of debate .
Sometimes the quickest way to the truth is through argument , by which I mean disagreement between two or more people with each side given opportunity to present their case and their perspective .
The word @ @ @ @ @ @ @ title of Peter ’ s book , means ‘ opinion profoundly at odds with what is generally accepted ’ .
The heresy is that Peter is not committed to the right political dogma .
It is not that he is wrong .
It is interesting that the ‘ other side ’ won ’ t debate .
They would prefer everyone just believed that the reef is in terminal decline , and that we have catastrophic global warming .
And how profoundly sad would that be , if it were true !
The establishment @ @ @ @ @ @ @ managers at James Cook University and the Australian Institute of Marine Science ( AIMS ) , know that it might not be quite so straightforward , and that there could be some issues with some of the science .
But , in general , they are convinced that they are right – or at least on the side of right , even if that means being ‘ left ’ .
( Ha ha . )
They certainly don ’ t want to have to get into the detail – or have to keep @ @ @ @ @ @ @ which an overall coral growth rate for the Great Barrier Reef used to be calculated .
Some of this is explained in a discussion I had with Peter when we were last together in Townsville – a discussion hosted by John Roskam and that included some 400 members of the Institute of Public Affairs ( IPA ) via Zoom .
In this discussion , and more generally , I suggest we should all ( both sides ) be less quick to lecture and more interested in asking questions .
Peter Ridd suggests towards @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 184 ) that asking questions in science could be made more legitimate through the establishment of explicit ‘ Red Teams ’ at organisations like AIMS .
Yale University professor , Irving Janis , was detailing the inherent problems with working towards a consensus – and labelled this Group Think – back in the 1950s .
Professor Janis explained in his important book by the same name , how this will inevitably generate systematic errors .
The conclusion of that long book is that it is critical groups encourage scepticism in order to find @ @ @ @ @ @ @ or plan .
I would have thought this to be a no-brainer in a civilization as sophisticated as our own , and one in which being able to forecast the weather day-to-day , month-to-month , and year-to-year is so important especially for the proper management of water infrastructure and water allocations for hydro-electricity as well as growing food crops .
Despite a plethora of history and data suggesting that ideas should always be tested , we live during a time when it is so unfashionable to ask the hard questions .
John Roskam @ @ @ @ @ @ @ new book ‘ Climate Change : The Facts 2020 ’ : It is so much better to have questions that can not be answered , than to live and do science according to answers that can not be questioned .
Here are a few questions I have , from flipping through the page of Peter ’ s new book : 1 .
When was the last major event that caused catastrophic global climate disruption ?
( see page 200 of ‘ Reef Heresy ?
’ ) 2 .
What does Peter think is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Australia ?
( see page 201 of ‘ Reef Heresy ?
’ ) 3 .
Which are the two sources of ‘ new nitrogen ’ into the Great Barrier Reef ?
( see page 84 of ‘ Reef Heresy ?
’ ) 4 .
When have major outbreaks of Crown-of-Thorn starfish ( COTS ) occurred on the Great Barrier Reef ?
( see page 35 of ‘ Reef Heresy ?
’ ) 5 .
When did AIMS last publish a Great Barrier Reef average coral growth rate ?
( see page 7 of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The feature image at the very top of this blog post is of Cheryl Ridd , Bill Lindquist , Anne Carter , me and Peter ( left to right ) on the back verandah in Townsville , one Sunday , just a couple of weeks ago .

Reposted from Jennifer Marohasy’s blog
December 20, 2020 By jennifer
I am so privileged to have written the introduction to Peter Ridd’s new book, ‘Reef Heresy?’. In it I explain that it is of great concern to both Peter, and myself, that those who claim the Great Barrier Reef to be in terminal decline are so unwilling to engage in any form of debate.
Sometimes the quickest way to the truth is through argument, by which I mean disagreement between two or more people with each side given opportunity to present their case and their perspective.
The word ‘heresy’, which is the title of Peter’s book, means ‘opinion profoundly at odds with what is generally accepted’. The heresy is that Peter is not committed to the right political dogma. It is not that he is wrong.
It is interesting that the ‘other side’ won’t debate. They would prefer everyone just believed that the reef is in terminal decline, and that we have catastrophic global warming. And how profoundly sad would that be, if it were true!
The establishment, by which I mean the science managers at James Cook University and the Australian Institute of Marine Science (AIMS), know that it might not be quite so straightforward, and that there could be some issues with some of the science. But, in general, they are convinced that they are right – or at least on the side of right, even if that means being ‘left’. (Ha ha.) They certainly don’t want to have to get into the detail – or have to keep coring the massive old Porites corals from which an overall coral growth rate for the Great Barrier Reef used to be calculated.
Some of this is explained in a discussion I had with Peter when we were last together in Townsville – a discussion hosted by John Roskam and that included some 400 members of the Institute of Public Affairs (IPA) via Zoom.
In this discussion, and more generally, I suggest we should all (both sides) be less quick to lecture and more interested in asking questions.
Peter Ridd suggests towards the end of his book (page 184) that asking questions in science could be made more legitimate through the establishment of explicit ‘Red Teams’ at organisations like AIMS. Yale University professor, Irving Janis, was detailing the inherent problems with working towards a consensus – and labelled this Group Think – back in the 1950s. Professor Janis explained in his important book by the same name, how this will inevitably generate systematic errors. The conclusion of that long book is that it is critical groups encourage scepticism in order to find the possible errors in their favourite theory or plan. I would have thought this to be a no-brainer in a civilization as sophisticated as our own, and one in which being able to forecast the weather day-to-day, month-to-month, and year-to-year is so important especially for the proper management of water infrastructure and water allocations for hydro-electricity as well as growing food crops.
Despite a plethora of history and data suggesting that ideas should always be tested, we live during a time when it is so unfashionable to ask the hard questions. John Roskam ends the YouTube discussion quoting from my new book ‘Climate Change: The Facts 2020’: It is so much better to have questions that cannot be answered, than to live and do science according to answers that cannot be questioned.
Here are a few questions I have, from flipping through the page of Peter’s new book:
1. When was the last major event that caused catastrophic global climate disruption? (see page 200 of ‘Reef Heresy?’)
2. What does Peter think is the second most important environmental issue in Australia? (see page 201 of ‘Reef Heresy?’)
3. Which are the two sources of ‘new nitrogen’ into the Great Barrier Reef? (see page 84 of ‘Reef Heresy?’)
4. When have major outbreaks of Crown-of-Thorn starfish (COTS) occurred on the Great Barrier Reef? (see page 35 of ‘Reef Heresy?’)
5. When did AIMS last publish a Great Barrier Reef average coral growth rate? (see page 7 of ‘Reef Heresy?’)
Jen kneeling beside a massive Porites at Myrmidon Reef on 1st December 2020. These are the corals that AIMS used to core to calculate an average growth rate for Great Barrier Reef corals.
****
The feature image at the very top of this blog post is of Cheryl Ridd, Bill Lindquist, Anne Carter, me and Peter (left to right) on the back verandah in Townsville, one Sunday, just a couple of weeks ago.
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wattsupwiththat--2020-12-22--Kilauea: Biggest Eruption Since 2018

Kilauea: Biggest Eruption Since 2018

The world ’ s most active volcano is at it again… No major changes as of 4:09 a.m. HST .
The fountain on the N wall of Halemaʻumaʻu crater is dominant , with weaker fountaining exhibited at W fissures .
The lava lake is slowly rising .
A billowing gas plume continues to drift to the southwest .
pic.twitter.com/enYj1U9yos The water lake that had formed in Halema ‘ uma ‘ u crater after the 2018 eruption is now a lava lake .
( BIVN ) – The Sunday evening eruption of Kīlauea – the first eruptive activity at the volcano @ @ @ @ @ @ @ erased the growing summit water lake and is replacing it with a new lava lake at the base of the crater .
The eruption started suddenly at approximately 9:30 p.m. HST during a brief earthquake swarm at the summit .
Scientists say multiple fissures opened on the walls of Halemaʻumaʻu crater .
The lava cascaded into the summit water lake , boiling off the water and forming a new lava lake at the base of the crater .
The activity is contained within Halemaʻumaʻu crater in Kīlauea caldera , scientists say .
One @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 165 feet tall .

Guest “geology” by David Middleton
The world’s most active volcano is at it again…
No major changes as of 4:09 a.m. HST. The fountain on the N wall of Halemaʻumaʻu crater is dominant, with weaker fountaining exhibited at W fissures. The lava lake is slowly rising. A billowing gas plume continues to drift to the southwest. pic.twitter.com/enYj1U9yos
The water lake that had formed in Halema‘uma‘u crater after the 2018 eruption is now a lava lake.
Eruption Boils Away Kilauea Water Lake, Forming New Lava Lake
by Big Island Video News
on Dec 21, 2020
(BIVN) – The Sunday evening eruption of Kīlauea – the first eruptive activity at the volcano in over two years – has already erased the growing summit water lake and is replacing it with a new lava lake at the base of the crater.
The eruption started suddenly at approximately 9:30 p.m. HST during a brief earthquake swarm at the summit. Scientists say multiple fissures opened on the walls of Halemaʻumaʻu crater. The lava cascaded into the summit water lake, boiling off the water and forming a new lava lake at the base of the crater.
The activity is contained within Halemaʻumaʻu crater in Kīlauea caldera, scientists say. One of the fountains within the crater was 165 feet tall.
[…]


wattsupwiththat--2020-12-21--Viewing the ‘Star of Bethlehem’ tonight – the Great Jupiter-Saturn Conjunction

Jupiter and Saturn are about to have their closest conjunction in modern history .
Don ’ t miss this once-in-a-millennium event .
In an event that hasn ’ t occurred in 800 years , Jupiter and Saturn will line up to create a bright “ star ” in the sky known as the “ Christmas Star ” or the “ Star of Bethlehem ” .
What makes this year ’ s spectacle so rare , then ?
It ’ s been nearly 400 years since the planets passed close to each other in the sky from our vantage point , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of Saturn and Jupiter occurred at night , as it will tonight , allowing nearly everyone around the world to witness this “ great conjunction ” .
Tonight , the two planets will be just 0.1 degrees apart in the western sky–so close that some people will perceive them as a single brilliant “ star ” .
Alignments between these two planets are rather rare , occurring once every 20 years or so , but this conjunction is exceptionally rare because of how close the planets will appear to be to one another… @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the way back to just before dawn on March 4 , 1226 , to see a closer alignment between these objects visible in the night sky .
Stargazers in the northern hemisphere should turn their heads and telescopes to the southwest portion of the sky about 30-45 minutes after sunset to see the two planets .
They will be low on the horizon , and will disappear later in the evening as they slip below the horizon .
It would look like this , only closer tonight in the USA : If you @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the view might look like this : And if you have a bigger telescope , and the means , you might see this : For those who would like to see this phenomenon for themselves , here ’ s what to do : • Find a spot with an unobstructed view of the sky , such as a field or park .
Jupiter and Saturn are bright , so they can be seen even from most cities .
• An hour after sunset , look to the southwestern sky .
Jupiter will look @ @ @ @ @ @ @ visible .
Saturn will be slightly fainter and will appear slightly above and to the left of Jupiter until December 21 , when Jupiter will overtake it and they will reverse positions in the sky .
• The planets can be seen with the unaided eye , but if you have binoculars or a small telescope , you may be able to see Jupiter ’ s four large moons orbiting the giant planet .

Jupiter and Saturn are about to have their closest conjunction in modern history. Don’t miss this once-in-a-millennium event.
In an event that hasn’t occurred in 800 years, Jupiter and Saturn will line up to create a bright “star” in the sky known as the “Christmas Star” or the “Star of Bethlehem”.
What makes this year’s spectacle so rare, then? It’s been nearly 400 years since the planets passed this close to each other in the sky from our vantage point, and nearly 800 years since the alignment of Saturn and Jupiter occurred at night, as it will tonight, allowing nearly everyone around the world to witness this “great conjunction”.
Tonight, the two planets will be just 0.1 degrees apart in the western sky–so close that some people will perceive them as a single brilliant “star”.
Patrick Hartigan, an astronomer at Rice University, told Forbes.
Alignments between these two planets are rather rare, occurring once every 20 years or so, but this conjunction is exceptionally rare because of how close the planets will appear to be to one another… You’d have to go all the way back to just before dawn on March 4, 1226, to see a closer alignment between these objects visible in the night sky.
Stargazers in the northern hemisphere should turn their heads and telescopes to the southwest portion of the sky about 30-45 minutes after sunset to see the two planets. They will be low on the horizon, and will disappear later in the evening as they slip below the horizon.
Credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech
It would look like this, only closer tonight in the USA:
Taken by Heiko Ulbricht on December 21, 2020 @ Opitz hill, Saxony, Germany
If you have a small telescope or binoculars, the view might look like this:
And if you have a bigger telescope, and the means, you might see this:
Taken by Christopher Go on December 21, 2020 @ Philippines.
For those who would like to see this phenomenon for themselves, here’s what to do:
Find a spot with an unobstructed view of the sky, such as a field or park. Jupiter and Saturn are bright, so they can be seen even from most cities.
An hour after sunset, look to the southwestern sky. Jupiter will look like a bright star and be easily visible. Saturn will be slightly fainter and will appear slightly above and to the left of Jupiter until December 21, when Jupiter will overtake it and they will reverse positions in the sky.
The planets can be seen with the unaided eye, but if you have binoculars or a small telescope, you may be able to see Jupiter’s four large moons orbiting the giant planet.
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wattsupwiththat--2020-12-21--Eastern Alps may have been ice-free in the time of Ötzi the Iceman

From The New Scientist Glaciers in the Ötztal Alps in Austria are currently melting and may be lost within two decades , but this might not be the first time humans have seen this kind of change .
A new analysis reveals that glaciers in this region formed just before or perhaps even within the lifetime of Ötzi the Iceman , a mummified body found just 12 kilometres away in 1991 .
Pascal Bohleber at the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna and his colleagues drilled 11 metres into the Weißseespitze summit glacier , down to the bedrock , at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cores .
They then used radiocarbon dating to analyse microscopic bits of organic material extracted from the ice cores and found that the glacier is 5200 to 6600 years old .
Ötzi is thought to have lived between 5100 and 5300 years ago , and his body was found preserved in ice .
The glacier ’ s age means it formed during a time called the mid-Holocene warm period , when Earth ’ s climate was warmer than it is now .
It is also dome-shaped , which Bohleber says is rare in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has seen very little movement over time , meaning we can use it to study the climate when it formed .
Read more : Ötzi the Iceman ’ s last journey revealed by moss found in his stomach “ More information on the mid-Holocene warm period , when the glaciers were smaller than today , is direly needed so that we can better predict how the glaciers will respond to the anticipated future climate over the next 50 years , ” says Bethan Davies at Royal Holloway , University of London .
Comparing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ quite a bit about the past climate in that region , says Bohleber , but that gets harder as the glaciers thaw .
Meltwater makes it more difficult to drill for ice cores and causes the glaciers to slide downhill , exposing the ancient ice to modern contaminants .

From The New Scientist
Glaciers in the Ötztal Alps in Austria are currently melting and may be lost within two decades, but this might not be the first time humans have seen this kind of change. A new analysis reveals that glaciers in this region formed just before or perhaps even within the lifetime of Ötzi the Iceman, a mummified body found just 12 kilometres away in 1991.
Pascal Bohleber at the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna and his colleagues drilled 11 metres into the Weißseespitze summit glacier, down to the bedrock, at 3500 metres altitude and collected two ice cores. They then used radiocarbon dating to analyse microscopic bits of organic material extracted from the ice cores and found that the glacier is 5200 to 6600 years old. Ötzi is thought to have lived between 5100 and 5300 years ago, and his body was found preserved in ice.
The glacier’s age means it formed during a time called the mid-Holocene warm period, when Earth’s climate was warmer than it is now. It is also dome-shaped, which Bohleber says is rare in the Alps and means that the ice has seen very little movement over time, meaning we can use it to study the climate when it formed.
“More information on the mid-Holocene warm period, when the glaciers were smaller than today, is direly needed so that we can better predict how the glaciers will respond to the anticipated future climate over the next 50 years,” says Bethan Davies at Royal Holloway, University of London.
Comparing ice cores from different sites tells us quite a bit about the past climate in that region, says Bohleber, but that gets harder as the glaciers thaw. Meltwater makes it more difficult to drill for ice cores and causes the glaciers to slide downhill, exposing the ancient ice to modern contaminants.
Read more: https://www.newscientist.com/article/2263399-eastern-alps-may-have-been-ice-free-in-the-time-of-otzi-the-iceman/#ixzz6hDkuLfkW
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wattsupwiththat--2020-12-22--How carbon bureaucrats lied to get the policies they wanted

An excellent video describing another one of our , sadly seemingly now daily , experiences of the government ideologues and @ @ @ @ @ , ostensibly for our own good .
This one in the UK .

An excellent video describing another one of our, sadly seemingly now daily, experiences of the government ideologues and media lying to the public, ostensibly for our own good.
This one in the UK.
HT/Photios
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wattsupwiththat--2020-12-22--Claim: Expensive Vanadium Flow Batteries will Make Renewable Energy Viable

Vanadium is expensive , though the price fluctuates wildly – currently $ 11K to $ 15K / tonne of Vanadium Pentoxide .
But advocates claim Vanadium flow batteries have the potential to solve the intermittency of renewable energy .
StorEn Tech Provides First Of Its Kind Vanadium Flow Battery To Australia Australia has taken another step toward greater use of battery energy storage thanks to a new 30 kWh StorEn vanadium flow battery that was installed for use in a renewable hydrogen plant at Queensland University of Technology ( QUT ) .
The battery , which was provided through a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Resources Limited , will allow researchers in Australia to develop safety standards for the future use of vanadium flow batteries as well as helping to bring the technology to Australia .
The many features of vanadium flow batteries could make them ideal for grid-scale energy storage , which is something that Australia is looking to expand in the coming years .
Peter Talbot , a professor at QUT , said about the new battery — “ vanadium flow battery technology promises safe , affordable and long-lasting energy storage for both households and industry.
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ 15-25Wh / L , so to provide backup for a 1GW renewable plant for a day , you would need : 24 x 1GW = 24GWh of storage , or 24,000,000,000 / 25 = 960 million litres of Vanadium electrolyte – say a couple of billion dollars worth .
An expensive battery , but not an unimaginable expense .
Of course a single day of backup capacity is not nearly enough .
Wind droughts can last weeks or even months .
So if your goal is to match the reliability of fossil fuel @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a lot more than a couple of billion dollars worth of electrolyte .
You might find that the electrolyte gets a lot more expensive over the course of negotiating your battery purchase agreement .
The global Vanadium market is small , around 80,000 tons per year .
So an attempt to purchase several hundred thousand tons of Vanadium to build a 1GW battery would have a substantial impact on global prices .
Assuming you somehow obtain enough Vanadium for your battery , your Vanadium Flow battery electrolyte can not be allowed to overheat @ @ @ @ @ @ @ complex will need substantial air-conditioning , which will eat into its storage efficiency .
Vanadium has other important industrial uses .
Vanadium is used as a steel additive to produce high strength structural steel , and is also an important component of military grade steel alloys , and critical steel components subject to high stress , such as automobile crank shafts .
China is a substantial buyer in the global Vanadium market .

Vanadium is expensive, though the price fluctuates wildly – currently $11K to $15K / tonne of Vanadium Pentoxide. But advocates claim Vanadium flow batteries have the potential to solve the intermittency of renewable energy.
StorEn Tech Provides First Of Its Kind Vanadium Flow Battery To Australia December 19th, 2020 Australia has taken another step toward greater use of battery energy storage thanks to a new 30 kWh StorEn vanadium flow battery that was installed for use in a renewable hydrogen plant at Queensland University of Technology (QUT). The battery, which was provided through a partnership between StorEn Technologies Inc.* and Multicom Resources Limited, will allow researchers in Australia to develop safety standards for the future use of vanadium flow batteries as well as helping to bring the technology to Australia. The many features of vanadium flow batteries could make them ideal for grid-scale energy storage, which is something that Australia is looking to expand in the coming years. … Peter Talbot, a professor at QUT, said about the new battery — “vanadium flow battery technology promises safe, affordable and long-lasting energy storage for both households and industry.” …
Vanadium has an energy density of 15-25Wh / L, so to provide backup for a 1GW renewable plant for a day, you would need:
24 x 1GW = 24GWh of storage, or 24,000,000,000 Wh / 25 Wh / L = 960 million litres of Vanadium electrolyte – say a couple of billion dollars worth.
An expensive battery, but not an unimaginable expense.
Of course a single day of backup capacity is not nearly enough. Wind droughts can last weeks or even months. So if your goal is to match the reliability of fossil fuel generators, you are going to need a lot more than a couple of billion dollars worth of electrolyte.
You might find that the electrolyte gets a lot more expensive over the course of negotiating your battery purchase agreement. The global Vanadium market is small, around 80,000 tons per year. So an attempt to purchase several hundred thousand tons of Vanadium to build a 1GW battery would have a substantial impact on global prices.
Assuming you somehow obtain enough Vanadium for your battery, your Vanadium Flow battery electrolyte cannot be allowed to overheat or freeze. So your new battery complex will need substantial air-conditioning, which will eat into its storage efficiency.
Vanadium has other important industrial uses. Vanadium is used as a steel additive to produce high strength structural steel, and is also an important component of military grade steel alloys, and critical steel components subject to high stress, such as automobile crank shafts. China is a substantial buyer in the global Vanadium market.
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Stellar Jewel Box

Thousands of sparkling young stars are nestled within the giant nebula NGC 3603 , one of the most massive young star clusters in the Milky Way Galaxy .
NGC 3603 , a prominent star-forming region in the Carina spiral arm of the Milky Way about 20,000 light-years away , reveals stages in the life cycle of stars .
Powerful ultraviolet radiation and fast winds from the bluest and hottest stars have blown a big bubble around the cluster .
Moving into the surrounding nebula , this torrent of radiation sculpted the tall , dark stalks of dense gas , which @ @ @ @ @ @ @ nebula .
These gaseous monoliths are a few light-years tall and point to the central cluster .
The stalks may be incubators for new stars .
On a smaller scale , a cluster of dark clouds called “ Bok ” globules resides at the top , right corner .
These clouds are composed of dense dust and gas and are about 10 to 50 times more massive than the sun .
Resembling an insect ’ s cocoon , a Bok globule may be undergoing a gravitational collapse on its way to forming new @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by Sir John Herschel in 1834 .

From NASA
Thousands of sparkling young stars are nestled within the giant nebula NGC 3603, one of the most massive young star clusters in the Milky Way Galaxy.
NGC 3603, a prominent star-forming region in the Carina spiral arm of the Milky Way about 20,000 light-years away, reveals stages in the life cycle of stars.
Powerful ultraviolet radiation and fast winds from the bluest and hottest stars have blown a big bubble around the cluster. Moving into the surrounding nebula, this torrent of radiation sculpted the tall, dark stalks of dense gas, which are embedded in the walls of the nebula. These gaseous monoliths are a few light-years tall and point to the central cluster. The stalks may be incubators for new stars.
On a smaller scale, a cluster of dark clouds called “Bok” globules resides at the top, right corner. These clouds are composed of dense dust and gas and are about 10 to 50 times more massive than the sun. Resembling an insect’s cocoon, a Bok globule may be undergoing a gravitational collapse on its way to forming new stars.
The nebula was first discovered by Sir John Herschel in 1834.
Image Credit: NASA, ESA, and the Hubble Heritage (STScI/AURA)-ESA/Hubble Collaboration
Last Updated: Dec. 21, 2020 Editor: NASA Administrator
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wattsupwiththat--2020-12-23--Chemists describe a new form of ice

Chemists describe a new form of ice

[ and all we ’ ve been worried about is nanotech , DNA labs , and AI ] Scientists from the United States , China , and Russia have described the structure and properties of a novel hydrogen clathrate hydrate that forms at room temperature and relatively low pressure .
Hydrogen hydrates are a potential solution for hydrogen storage and transportation , the most environmentally friendly fuel .
The research was published in the journal .
Ice is a highly complex substance with multiple polymorphic modifications that keep growing in number as scientists make discoveries .
The physical properties of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ example , hydrogen bonds become symmetric at high pressures , making it impossible to distinguish a single water molecule , whereas low pressures cause proton disorder , placing water molecules in many possible spatial orientations within the crystal structure .
The ice around us , including snowflakes , is always proton-disordered .
Ice can incorporate xenon , chlorine , carbon dioxide , or methane molecules and form gas hydrates , which often have a different structure from pure ice .
The vast bulk of Earth ’ s natural gas exists in the form @ @ @ @ @ @ @ study , chemists from the United States , China , and Russia focused on hydrogen hydrates .
Gas hydrates hold great interest both for theoretical research and practical applications , such as hydrogen storage .
If stored in its natural form , hydrogen poses an explosion hazard , whereas density is way too low even in compressed hydrogen .
That is why scientists are looking for cost-effective hydrogen storage solutions .
“ This is not the first time we turn to hydrogen hydrates .
In our previous research , we predicted a novel @ @ @ @ @ @ @ water molecule .
Unfortunately , this exceptional hydrate can only exist at pressures above 380,000 atmospheres , which is easy to achieve in the lab but is hardly usable in practical applications .
Our new paper describes hydrates that contain less hydrogen but can exist at much lower pressures , ” Skoltech professor Artem R. Oganov says .
The crystal structure of hydrogen hydrates strongly depends on pressure .
At low pressures , it has large cavities which , according to Oganov , resemble Chinese lanterns , each accommodating hydrogen molecules .
As @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , with more hydrogen molecules packed into the crystal structure , although their degrees of freedom become significantly fewer .
In their research published in the , the scientists from the Carnegie Institution of Washington ( USA ) and the Institute of Solid State Physics in Hefei ( China ) led by Alexander F. Goncharov , a Professor at these two institutions , performed experiments to study the properties of various hydrogen hydrates and discovered an unusual hydrate with 3 water molecules per hydrogen molecule .
The team led by Professor Oganov used @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and his students to puzzle out the compound ’ s structure responsible for its peculiar behavior .
The researchers simulated the experiment ’ s conditions and found a new structure very similar to the known proton-ordered C1 hydrate but differing from C1 in water molecule orientations .
The team showed that proton disorder should occur at room temperature , thus explaining the X-ray diffraction and Raman spectrum data obtained in the experiment .

[and all we’ve been worried about is nanotech, DNA labs, and AI]
SKOLKOVO INSTITUTE OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY (SKOLTECH)
Research News
IMAGE: A NOVEL HYDROGEN CLATHRATE HYDRATE view more CREDIT: PAVEL ODINEV / SKOLTECH
Scientists from the United States, China, and Russia have described the structure and properties of a novel hydrogen clathrate hydrate that forms at room temperature and relatively low pressure. Hydrogen hydrates are a potential solution for hydrogen storage and transportation, the most environmentally friendly fuel. The research was published in the journal Physical Review Letters.
Ice is a highly complex substance with multiple polymorphic modifications that keep growing in number as scientists make discoveries. The physical properties of ice vary greatly, too: for example, hydrogen bonds become symmetric at high pressures, making it impossible to distinguish a single water molecule, whereas low pressures cause proton disorder, placing water molecules in many possible spatial orientations within the crystal structure. The ice around us, including snowflakes, is always proton-disordered. Ice can incorporate xenon, chlorine, carbon dioxide, or methane molecules and form gas hydrates, which often have a different structure from pure ice. The vast bulk of Earth’s natural gas exists in the form of gas hydrates.
In their new study, chemists from the United States, China, and Russia focused on hydrogen hydrates. Gas hydrates hold great interest both for theoretical research and practical applications, such as hydrogen storage. If stored in its natural form, hydrogen poses an explosion hazard, whereas density is way too low even in compressed hydrogen. That is why scientists are looking for cost-effective hydrogen storage solutions.
“This is not the first time we turn to hydrogen hydrates. In our previous research, we predicted a novel hydrogen hydrate with 2 hydrogen molecules per water molecule. Unfortunately, this exceptional hydrate can only exist at pressures above 380,000 atmospheres, which is easy to achieve in the lab but is hardly usable in practical applications. Our new paper describes hydrates that contain less hydrogen but can exist at much lower pressures,” Skoltech professor Artem R. Oganov says.
The crystal structure of hydrogen hydrates strongly depends on pressure. At low pressures, it has large cavities which, according to Oganov, resemble Chinese lanterns, each accommodating hydrogen molecules. As pressure increases, the structure becomes denser, with more hydrogen molecules packed into the crystal structure, although their degrees of freedom become significantly fewer.
In their research published in the Physical Review Letters, the scientists from the Carnegie Institution of Washington (USA) and the Institute of Solid State Physics in Hefei (China) led by Alexander F. Goncharov, a Professor at these two institutions, performed experiments to study the properties of various hydrogen hydrates and discovered an unusual hydrate with 3 water molecules per hydrogen molecule. The team led by Professor Oganov used the USPEX evolutionary algorithm developed by Oganov and his students to puzzle out the compound’s structure responsible for its peculiar behavior. The researchers simulated the experiment’s conditions and found a new structure very similar to the known proton-ordered C1 hydrate but differing from C1 in water molecule orientations. The team showed that proton disorder should occur at room temperature, thus explaining the X-ray diffraction and Raman spectrum data obtained in the experiment.
###
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wattsupwiththat--2020-12-23--Claim: A groggy climate giant: subsea permafrost is still waking up after 12,000 years

New research suggests slow but substantial greenhouse gas release from submarine permafrost In the far north , the swelling Arctic Ocean inundated vast swaths of coastal tundra and steppe ecosystems .
Though the ocean water was only a few degrees above freezing , it started to thaw the permafrost beneath it , exposing billions of tons of organic matter to microbial breakdown .
The decomposing organic matter began producing CO2 and CH4 , two of the most important greenhouse gases .
Though researchers have been studying degrading subsea permafrost for decades , difficulty collecting measurements and sharing data across international @ @ @ @ @ @ @ estimate of the amount of carbon and the rate of release .
A new study , led by Ph.D. candidate Sara Sayedi and senior researcher Dr. Ben Abbott at Brigham Young University ( BYU ) published in IOP Publishing journal , sheds light on the subsea permafrost climate feedback , generating the first estimates of circumarctic carbon stocks , greenhouse gas release , and possible future response of the subsea permafrost zone .
Sayedi and an international team of 25 permafrost researchers worked under the coordination of the Permafrost Carbon Network ( PCN @ @ @ @ @ @ @ U.S. National Science Foundation .
The researchers combined findings from published and unpublished studies to estimate the size of the past and present subsea carbon stock and how much greenhouse gas it might produce over the next three centuries .
Using a methodology called expert assessment , which combines multiple , independent plausible values , the researchers estimated that the subsea permafrost region currently traps 60 billion tons of methane and contains 560 billion tons of organic carbon in sediment and soil .
For reference , humans have released a total of about @ @ @ @ @ @ @ atmosphere since the Industrial Revolution .
This makes the subsea permafrost carbon stock a potential giant ecosystem feedback to climate change .
“ Subsea permafrost is really unique because it is still responding to a dramatic climate transition from more than ten thousand years ago , ” Sayedi said .
“ In some ways , it can give us a peek into the possible response of permafrost that is thawing today because of human activity.
” Estimates from Sayedi ’ s team suggest that subsea permafrost is already releasing substantial amounts of greenhouse @ @ @ @ @ @ @ mainly due to ancient climate change rather than current human activity .
They estimate that subsea permafrost releases approximately 140 million tons of CO2 and 5.3 million tons of CH4 to the atmosphere each year .
This is similar in magnitude to the overall greenhouse gas footprint of Spain .
The researchers found that if human-caused climate change continues , the release of CH4 and CO2 from subsea permafrost could increase substantially .
However , this response is expected to occur over the next three centuries rather than abruptly .
Researchers estimated that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from subsea permafrost depends directly on future human emissions .
They found that under a business-as-usual scenario , warming subsea permafrost releases four times more additional CO2 and CH4 compared to when human emissions are reduced to keep warming less than 2°C .
“ These results are important because they indicate a substantial but slow climate feedback , ” Sayedi explained .
“ Some coverage of this region has suggested that human emissions could trigger catastrophic release of methane hydrates , but our study suggests a gradual increase over many decades.
” Even @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the researchers point out that subsea permafrost is not included in any current climate agreements or greenhouse gas targets .
Sayedi emphasized that there is still a large amount of uncertainty about subsea permafrost and that additional research is needed .
“ Compared to how important subsea permafrost could be for future climate , we know shockingly little about this ecosystem , ” Sayedi said .
“ We need more sediment and soil samples , as well as a better monitoring network to detect when greenhouse gas release responds to current warming @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of carbon will wake from its frozen slumber.
” This research was funded by the U.S. National Science Foundation and by BYU Graduate Studies .
• Subsea permafrost has been thawing since the end of the last glacial period ( ~14,000 years ago ) when it began to be inundated by the ocean • An international team of 25 permafrost researchers estimate that the subsea permafrost region currently traps 60 billion tons of methane and 560 billion tons of organic carbon in sediment and soil .
However , the exact amount of these @ @ @ @ @ @ @ This carbon is already being released from the subsea permafrost region , though it remains unclear whether this is a natural response to deglaciation or if anthropogenic warming is accelerating greenhouse gas production and release .
• The researchers estimate that currently , the subsea permafrost region releases approximately 140 million tons of CO2 and 5.3 million tons of CH4 to the atmosphere each year .
This represents a small fraction of total anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions–approximately equal to the greenhouse gas footprint of Spain .
• Experts predict a gradual increase in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ three hundred years rather than an abrupt release .
• The amount of greenhouse gas increase depends on how much human emissions are reduced .
Experts estimate that approximately ¾ of the extra subsea emissions can be avoided if humans actively reduce their emissions compared to a no mitigation scenario .
• This climate feedback is still virtually absent from climate policy discussions , and more field observations are needed to better predict the future of this system .
“ I think there are three important messages from this study .
First , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ time bomb on a hair trigger .
Second , subsea permafrost is a potentially large climate feedback that needs to be considered in climate negotiations .
Third , there is still a huge amount that we don ’ t know about this system .
We really need additional research , including international collaboration across northern countries and research disciplines.
” “ This work demonstrates the power of science synthesis and networking by bringing together experts across a range of disciplines in order to assess our state of knowledge based on observations and models @ @ @ @ @ @ @ continue to be done to test these ideas , bringing knowledge together with this expert assessment provides an important baseline for shaping future research on subsea permafrost greenhouse gas emissions.
” “ This expert assessment is a crucial contribution to the scientific literature in advancing our knowledge on subsea permafrost and potential greenhouse gas emissions from this so far understudied pool .
Bringing together scientists from multiple disciplines , institutions , and countries has made it possible to move beyond individual datapoints or studies providing a much more comprehensive estimate of subsea permafrost @ @

New research suggests slow but substantial greenhouse gas release from submarine permafrost
IOP PUBLISHING
Research News
IMAGE: ARTISTIC DIAGRAM OF THE SUBSEA AND COASTAL PERMAFROST ECOSYSTEMS, EMPHASIZING GREENHOUSE GAS PRODUCTION AND RELEASE. view more CREDIT: ORIGINAL ARTWORK CREATED FOR THIS STUDY BY VICTOR OLEG LESHYK AT NORTHERN ARIZONA UNIVERSITY.
In the far north, the swelling Arctic Ocean inundated vast swaths of coastal tundra and steppe ecosystems. Though the ocean water was only a few degrees above freezing, it started to thaw the permafrost beneath it, exposing billions of tons of organic matter to microbial breakdown. The decomposing organic matter began producing CO2 and CH4, two of the most important greenhouse gases.
Though researchers have been studying degrading subsea permafrost for decades, difficulty collecting measurements and sharing data across international and disciplinary divides have prevented an overall estimate of the amount of carbon and the rate of release. A new study, led by Ph.D. candidate Sara Sayedi and senior researcher Dr. Ben Abbott at Brigham Young University (BYU) published in IOP Publishing journal Environmental Research Letters, sheds light on the subsea permafrost climate feedback, generating the first estimates of circumarctic carbon stocks, greenhouse gas release, and possible future response of the subsea permafrost zone.
Sayedi and an international team of 25 permafrost researchers worked under the coordination of the Permafrost Carbon Network (PCN), which is supported by the U.S. National Science Foundation. The researchers combined findings from published and unpublished studies to estimate the size of the past and present subsea carbon stock and how much greenhouse gas it might produce over the next three centuries.
Using a methodology called expert assessment, which combines multiple, independent plausible values, the researchers estimated that the subsea permafrost region currently traps 60 billion tons of methane and contains 560 billion tons of organic carbon in sediment and soil. For reference, humans have released a total of about 500 billion tons of carbon into the atmosphere since the Industrial Revolution. This makes the subsea permafrost carbon stock a potential giant ecosystem feedback to climate change.
“Subsea permafrost is really unique because it is still responding to a dramatic climate transition from more than ten thousand years ago,” Sayedi said. “In some ways, it can give us a peek into the possible response of permafrost that is thawing today because of human activity.”
Estimates from Sayedi’s team suggest that subsea permafrost is already releasing substantial amounts of greenhouse gas. However, this release is mainly due to ancient climate change rather than current human activity. They estimate that subsea permafrost releases approximately 140 million tons of CO2 and 5.3 million tons of CH4 to the atmosphere each year. This is similar in magnitude to the overall greenhouse gas footprint of Spain.
The researchers found that if human-caused climate change continues, the release of CH4 and CO2 from subsea permafrost could increase substantially. However, this response is expected to occur over the next three centuries rather than abruptly. Researchers estimated that the amount of future greenhouse gas release from subsea permafrost depends directly on future human emissions. They found that under a business-as-usual scenario, warming subsea permafrost releases four times more additional CO2 and CH4 compared to when human emissions are reduced to keep warming less than 2°C.
“These results are important because they indicate a substantial but slow climate feedback,” Sayedi explained. “Some coverage of this region has suggested that human emissions could trigger catastrophic release of methane hydrates, but our study suggests a gradual increase over many decades.”
Even if this climate feedback is relatively gradual, the researchers point out that subsea permafrost is not included in any current climate agreements or greenhouse gas targets. Sayedi emphasized that there is still a large amount of uncertainty about subsea permafrost and that additional research is needed.
“Compared to how important subsea permafrost could be for future climate, we know shockingly little about this ecosystem,” Sayedi said. “We need more sediment and soil samples, as well as a better monitoring network to detect when greenhouse gas release responds to current warming and just how quickly this giant pool of carbon will wake from its frozen slumber.”
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/abcc29
This research was funded by the U.S. National Science Foundation and by BYU Graduate Studies.
Summary of the key scientific points:
Subsea permafrost has been thawing since the end of the last glacial period (~14,000 years ago) when it began to be inundated by the ocean
An international team of 25 permafrost researchers estimate that the subsea permafrost region currently traps 60 billion tons of methane and 560 billion tons of organic carbon in sediment and soil. However, the exact amount of these carbon stocks remains highly uncertain.
This carbon is already being released from the subsea permafrost region, though it remains unclear whether this is a natural response to deglaciation or if anthropogenic warming is accelerating greenhouse gas production and release.
The researchers estimate that currently, the subsea permafrost region releases approximately 140 million tons of CO2 and 5.3 million tons of CH4 to the atmosphere each year. This represents a small fraction of total anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions–approximately equal to the greenhouse gas footprint of Spain.
Experts predict a gradual increase in emissions from subsea permafrost over the next three hundred years rather than an abrupt release.
The amount of greenhouse gas increase depends on how much human emissions are reduced. Experts estimate that approximately ¾ of the extra subsea emissions can be avoided if humans actively reduce their emissions compared to a no mitigation scenario.
This climate feedback is still virtually absent from climate policy discussions, and more field observations are needed to better predict the future of this system.
Quotes from other co-authors:
“I think there are three important messages from this study. First, subsea permafrost is probably not a climate time bomb on a hair trigger. Second, subsea permafrost is a potentially large climate feedback that needs to be considered in climate negotiations. Third, there is still a huge amount that we don’t know about this system. We really need additional research, including international collaboration across northern countries and research disciplines.”
Dr. Ben Abbott, senior researcher on the project, Brigham Young University
“This work demonstrates the power of science synthesis and networking by bringing together experts across a range of disciplines in order to assess our state of knowledge based on observations and models currently available. While scientific work will continue to be done to test these ideas, bringing knowledge together with this expert assessment provides an important baseline for shaping future research on subsea permafrost greenhouse gas emissions.”
Dr. Ted Schuur, Lead investigator of the Permafrost Carbon Network, Northern Arizona University
“This expert assessment is a crucial contribution to the scientific literature in advancing our knowledge on subsea permafrost and potential greenhouse gas emissions from this so far understudied pool. Bringing together scientists from multiple disciplines, institutions, and countries has made it possible to move beyond individual datapoints or studies providing a much more comprehensive estimate of subsea permafrost. “
Dr. Christina Schädel, Co-Investigator of the Permafrost Carbon Network, Northern Arizona University
###
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wattsupwiththat--2020-12-22--Alarmism Dies In The Maldives: 97% Of 186 Island Coasts Have Grown (59%) Or Not Changed (38%) Since

Alarmism Dies In The Maldives: 97% Of 186 Island Coasts Have Grown (59%) Or Not Changed (38%) Since 2005

Despite sea level rise , a 2019 global analysis ( Duvat , 2019 ) found 89 % of 709 island coasts have been either stable or growing in size in recent decades .
A new Maldives-only study ( Duvat , 2020 ) finds rapid ( > 3 to > 50 % ) coastal growth in 110 of 186 Maldives islands from 2005 to 2016 .
Just 5 islands – 2.7 % – actually contracted in size during this period .
Last year Dr. Virginie Duvat published a global assessment of how the Earth ’ s islands and atolls are faring @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rise since satellite monitoring began in the 1980s .
Fortunately she found “ no widespread sign of physical destabilization in the face of sea-level rise.
” In fact , a ) none of the 30 atolls analyzed lost land area , b ) 88.6 % of the 709 islands studied were either stable or increased in area , c ) no island larger than 10 hectare ( ha ) decreased in size , and d ) only 4 of 334 islands ( 1.2 % ) larger than 5 ha had decreased in size @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on the Maldives islands , a region characterized as one of the most vulnerable to sea level rise perturbation .
About 80 % of the islands are less than 1 meter ( m ) above sea level .
Considering the Maldives population ( > 400,000 ) has been doubling every 25 years since the 1960s and nearly 1.3 million tourists visit many of the 188 inhabited islands every year , the Maldives islands are critical to ongoing assessment of the effects of modern sea level change .
And , fortunately , like it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the Maldives are faring quite well .
Due significantly to human ingenuity – engineering feats such as island raising , artificially expanding island areas , and “ armoring ” shorelines – most of the Maldives have actually in size in recent decades .
Since 2005 , 110 ( 59.1 % ) of the 186 islands studied grew by ≥3 % .
Of those 110 expanding islands , 57 grew by ≥10 % and 19 grew by ≥50 % ( Duvat , 2020 ) .
Again , that ’ s just in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ t expand in size , 38.2 % ( 71 islands ) were classified as stable ( defined as neither growing or contracting by more than 3 % ) .
This leaves only 5 islands out of 186 ( 2.7 % ) that decreased in size since the 1980s .
Put another way , 97.3 % of Maldives islands have been either stable or growing in size since 2005 .
Another new study ( Kench et al.
, 2020 ) helpfully presents the long-term context of Holocene sea level for the Maldives .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ sea level today were submerged beneath seawater as recently as 3,000 years ago .
From about 4,000 to 2,000 years ago , Maldives sea levels were about 0.5 m above where they are today .
Natural oscillations of ~0.8 m in a few centuries have occurred in the last few thousand years , including dips during the Late Antique Little Ice Age ( ~1600 years ago ) and Little Ice Age ( ~400 years ago ) .
Modern sea level changes do not appear to fall outside the range of natural variability .

Reposted from NoTricksZone
By Kenneth Richard on 21. December 2020
Despite sea level rise, a 2019 global analysis (Duvat, 2019) found 89% of 709 island coasts have been either stable or growing in size in recent decades. A new Maldives-only study (Duvat, 2020) finds rapid (>3 to >50%) coastal growth in 110 of 186 Maldives islands from 2005 to 2016. Just 5 islands – 2.7% – actually contracted in size during this period.
Last year Dr. Virginie Duvat published a global assessment of how the Earth’s islands and atolls are faring against the ongoing challenge of sea level rise since satellite monitoring began in the 1980s.
Fortunately she found “no widespread sign of physical destabilization in the face of sea-level rise.” In fact, a) none of the 30 atolls analyzed lost land area, b) 88.6% of the 709 islands studied were either stable or increased in area, c) no island larger than 10 hectare (ha) decreased in size, and d) only 4 of 334 islands (1.2%) larger than 5 ha had decreased in size.
This year Dr. Duvat has focused on the Maldives islands, a region characterized as one of the most vulnerable to sea level rise perturbation. About 80% of the islands are less than 1 meter (m) above sea level.
Considering the Maldives population (>400,000) has been doubling every 25 years since the 1960s and nearly 1.3 million tourists visit many of the 188 inhabited islands every year, the Maldives islands are critical to ongoing assessment of the effects of modern sea level change.
And, fortunately, like it has for the rest of the globe, the Maldives are faring quite well.
Due significantly to human ingenuity – engineering feats such as island raising, artificially expanding island areas, and “armoring” shorelines – most of the Maldives have actually expanded in size in recent decades.
Since 2005, 110 (59.1%) of the 186 islands studied grew by ≥3%. Of those 110 expanding islands, 57 grew by ≥10% and 19 grew by ≥50% (Duvat, 2020). Again, that’s just in the last decade.
Of the islands that didn’t expand in size, 38.2% (71 islands) were classified as stable (defined as neither growing or contracting by more than 3%). This leaves only 5 islands out of 186 (2.7%) that decreased in size since the 1980s.
Put another way, 97.3% of Maldives islands have been either stable or growing in size since 2005.
Another new study (Kench et al., 2020) helpfully presents the long-term context of Holocene sea level for the Maldives. We find that islands that are above sea level today were submerged beneath seawater as recently as 3,000 years ago.
From about 4,000 to 2,000 years ago, Maldives sea levels were about 0.5 m above where they are today. Natural oscillations of ~0.8 m in a few centuries have occurred in the last few thousand years, including dips during the Late Antique Little Ice Age (~1600 years ago) and Little Ice Age (~400 years ago).
Modern sea level changes do not appear to fall outside the range of natural variability.
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wattsupwiththat--2020-12-22--Polar bears again attracted to Russian town by dead walrus Attenborough blames on no sea ice

In the news again : Cape Schmidt ( on the Chukchi Sea ) made famous by Sir David Attenborough ’ s false claim that walrus fell to their deaths because of lack of sea ice due to climate change when a clever polar bear hunting strategy was actually to blame .
Last year in December ( above ) , some bears were feeding at Ryrkaypiy ’ s garbage dump and wandering around town after being displaced from feeding on walrus carcasses by bigger , stronger bears on the nearby point .
This year , the town has managed to keep @ @ @ @ @ @ @ while the residents are having no real problems , more than 30 bears have been spotted near town , almost certainly feeding on natural-death carcasses of walrus along the shore ( see photo below from 2017 where Ryrkaypiy can be seen in the background ) .
From the Russian news agency TASS ( 16 December 2020 ) , my bold : Almost 30 polar bears have come within a touching distance to the village of Ryrkaypiy in Chukotka .
The animals have been peaceful so far , the WWF Russia told TASS .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ the west coast of Chukotka is approached by a few dozens of polar bears .
The WWF Russia bear patrol brigade is handling the situation and is not letting the predators to enter the village , ” the statement reads .
It is noted that the patrol counted around 30 bears today , they are behaving in a peaceful manner .
“ These are just the ones who could be seen with binoculars , there are likely more animals , ” the press service explained .
In response to this report , polar @ @ @ @ @ @ @ reason that these Chukchi Sea polar bears would be scavenging is lack of sea ice ( below ) : https : //platform.twitter.com/embed/index.html ?
creatorScreenName=sjc_pbs & dnt=true & embedId=twitter-widget-0 & frame=false & hideCard=false & hideThread=false & id=1339684795194822662 & lang=en & origin=https % 3A % 2F % 2Fpolarbearscience.com % 2F2020 % 2F12 % 2F20 % 2Fpolar-bears-again-attracted-to-russian-town-by-dead-walrus-attenborough-blames-on-no-sea-ice % 2F & siteScreenName=sjc_pbs & theme=light & widgetsVersion=ed20a2b % 3A1601588405575 & width=500px However , ice charts for the 10th of December , almost one week before this report was published ( below ) , show rather an abundance of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , there has been ice offshore for weeks in that part of the Chukchi Sea , certainly enough to attract the seals on which polar bears usually feed in the fall .
The chart below is from 1 December 2020 : Derocher is describing what he thinks polar bears do rather than assessing what the bears are doing .
It is apparent that polar bears near Ryrkaypiy prefer to scavenge hundreds of walrus carcasses rather than hunt for live seals on the newly-formed ice and have been doing so since 2006 ( see @ @ @ @ @ @ @ dead whales , and live seals are all natural food sources and provide the fat that polar bears need to thrive , so there is no reason to assume bears would not choose the more efficient route to a meal of fat when it presents itself .
Recent scientific studies have shown Chukchi Sea polar bears are in excellent condition and reproducing well despite recent declines in summer sea ice and there is no scientific evidence that this situation changed markedly this year ( Adam et al .
2019 ; AC SWG 2018 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Rode et al .
2014 , 2018 ) .
The latest survey estimated about 3,000 bears in the Chukchi Sea .
On the contrary , there is every reason to suggest that more polar bears visiting Chukotka settlements in recent years is due to growing numbers of bears – as I suggested earlier this year to explain the rising problems with bears in Labrador .
In other words , as was true in the 1980s , seeing more bears often means there are actually more bears .
Ryrkaypiy is located the base of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ every few years in the fall , since at least 2007 .
Walrus numbers are way up compared to what they were in the 1990s and the size of herds that have come ashore in recent years have been rather astonishing ( Crockford 2014 ; Fay and Kelly 1980 ; Fay et al .
1989 ; Fischbach et al .
2016 ; Lowry 1985 ; MacCracken et al .
2017 ) .
The town is just a little over a mile from the cliffs where the infamous Netflix and BBC walrus videos were @ @ @ @ @ @ @ nothing for a polar bear : bears that ‘ normally ’ hang out on the spit are close enough to the village to cause trouble if they are so inclined .
In 2013 , more than 40 polar bears were reported to be threatening Ryrkaypiy residents because they were drawn to two whale carcasses washed ashore nearby : In 2007 , polar bears descended on the village after a massive herd of 40,000 walrus spent time on the spit that fall , leaving more than 500 carcasses on local beaches from animals that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Bottom line : This year ’ s report differed from the influx of bears that terrorized the village in 2007 and 2019 because the village seems to have finally taken sufficient measures to keep the bears out of town .
Lack of sea ice caused by human-caused global warming is not causing increasing numbers of polar bears to congregate around Ryrkaypiy in the late fall .
A combination of increasing numbers of bears plus an abundance of walrus that have died of natural causes earlier in the year are almost certainly the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ dead whales are an attractive source of food for polar bears who must replenish fat they have lost over the summer before the cold and darkness of winter sets in .
These sources of fat are just as useful to bears for that purpose as live seals and are easier to access .
Polar bears are often smarter than polar bear biologists assume .
AC SWG 2018 .
Chukchi-Alaska polar bear population demographic parameter estimation .
Eric Regehr , Scientific Working Group ( SWG .
Report of the Proceedings of the 10th meeting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , 27-28 July 2018 ) , pg .
5 .
Published 30 July 2018 .
US Fish and Wildlife Service .
Adam , R. , Bryan , A. , Quakenbush , L. , Crawford , J. , and Biderman , L. 2019 .
Bearded seal productivity in Alaska using harvest-based monitoring , 1975-2016 .
Poster presentation , Alaska Marine Science Symposium , 28 January-1 February .
References Crockford , S.J .
2014 .
On The Beach : Walrus Haulouts are Nothing New .
The Global Warming Policy Foundation Briefing 11 , London .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ Kelly , B.P .
1980 .
Mass natural mortality of walruses ( ) at St. Lawrence Island , Bering Sea , autumn 1978 .
33:226-245 .
[ open access ] PDF here .
Fay , F.H.
, Kelly , B.P .
and Sease , J.L .
1989 .
Managing the exploitation of Pacific walruses : a tradegy of delayed response and poor communication .
5:1-16 .
PDF HERE .
Fischbach , A.S. , Kochnev , A.A. , Garlich-Miller , J.L .
and Jay , C.V. 2016 .
USGS Open-File Report 2016-1108 .
DOI @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
MacCracken , J.G.
, Beatty , W.S.
, Garlich-Miller , J.L.
, Kissling , M.L and Snyder , J.A .
2017 .
Final Species Status Assessment for the Pacific Walrus ( Odobenus rosmarus divergens ) , May 2017 ( Version 1.0 ) .
US Fish & Wildlife Service , Anchorage , AK .
Pdf here ( 8.6 mb ) .
Regehr , E.V.
, Hostetter , N.J. , Wilson , R.R.
, Rode , K.D.
, St. Martin , M. , Converse , S.J .
2018 .
Integrated population modeling provides the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ abundance for polar bears in the Chukchi Sea .
Scientific Reports 8 ( 1 ) DOI : 10.1038/s41598-018-34824-7 https : //www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-34824-7 Rode , K.D.
, Regehr , E.V.
, Douglas , D. , Durner , G. , Derocher , A.E.
, Thiemann , G.W.
, and Budge , S. 2014 .
Variation in the response of an Arctic top predator experiencing habitat loss : feeding and reproductive ecology of two polar bear populations .
Global Change Biology 20 ( 1 ) :76-88. http : //onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.12339/abstract Rode , K. D. , R. R. Wilson @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , T.C .
Atwood , E. V. Regehr , E.S .
Richardson , N.W .
Pilfold , A.E .
Derocher , G.M Durner , I. Stirling , S.C. Amstrup , M. S. Martin , A.M. Pagano , and K. Simac .
2018 .
Spring fasting behavior in a marine apex predator provides an index of ecosystem productivity .
Global Change Biology http : //onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.13933/full

Reposted from Polar Bear Science
Posted on December 20, 2020 |
In the news again: Cape Schmidt (on the Chukchi Sea) made famous by Sir David Attenborough’s false claim that walrus fell to their deaths because of lack of sea ice due to climate change when a clever polar bear hunting strategy was actually to blame.
Ryrkaypiy overrun by polar bears Dec 2019 WWF photo
Last year in December (above), some bears were feeding at Ryrkaypiy’s garbage dump and wandering around town after being displaced from feeding on walrus carcasses by bigger, stronger bears on the nearby point.
This year, the town has managed to keep the bears out of town, so while the residents are having no real problems, more than 30 bears have been spotted near town, almost certainly feeding on natural-death carcasses of walrus along the shore (see photo below from 2017 where Ryrkaypiy can be seen in the background).
From the Russian news agency TASS (16 December 2020), my bold:
Almost 30 polar bears have come within a touching distance to the village of Ryrkaypiy in Chukotka. The animals have been peaceful so far, the WWF Russia told TASS. “The small village of Ryrkaypiy in the west coast of Chukotka is approached by a few dozens of polar bears. The WWF Russia bear patrol brigade is handling the situation and is not letting the predators to enter the village,” the statement reads. It is noted that the patrol counted around 30 bears today, they are behaving in a peaceful manner. “These are just the ones who could be seen with binoculars, there are likely more animals,” the press service explained.
In response to this report, polar bear specialist Andrew Derocher insisted that the only reason that these Chukchi Sea polar bears would be scavenging is lack of sea ice (below):https://platform.twitter.com/embed/index.html?creatorScreenName=sjc_pbs&dnt=true&embedId=twitter-widget-0&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1339684795194822662&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fpolarbearscience.com%2F2020%2F12%2F20%2Fpolar-bears-again-attracted-to-russian-town-by-dead-walrus-attenborough-blames-on-no-sea-ice%2F&siteScreenName=sjc_pbs&theme=light&widgetsVersion=ed20a2b%3A1601588405575&width=500px
However, ice charts for the 10th of December, almost one week before this report was published (below), show rather an abundance of sea ice off Ryrkaypiy:
In fact, there has been ice offshore for weeks in that part of the Chukchi Sea, certainly enough to attract the seals on which polar bears usually feed in the fall. The chart below is from 1 December 2020:
Derocher is describing what he thinks polar bears should do rather than assessing what the bears are actually doing. It is apparent that polar bears near Ryrkaypiy prefer to scavenge hundreds of walrus carcasses rather than hunt for live seals on the newly-formed ice and have been doing so since 2006 (see discussion below). Dead walrus, dead whales, and live seals are all natural food sources and provide the fat that polar bears need to thrive, so there is no reason to assume bears would not choose the more efficient route to a meal of fat when it presents itself.
Recent scientific studies have shown Chukchi Sea polar bears are in excellent condition and reproducing well despite recent declines in summer sea ice and there is no scientific evidence that this situation changed markedly this year (Adam et al. 2019; AC SWG 2018; Regehr et al. 2018; Rode et al. 2014, 2018). The latest survey estimated about 3,000 bears in the Chukchi Sea. On the contrary, there is every reason to suggest that more polar bears visiting Chukotka settlements in recent years is due to growing numbers of bears – as I suggested earlier this year to explain the rising problems with bears in Labrador. In other words, as was true in the 1980s, seeing more bears often means there are actually more bears.
RECENT HISTORY OF POLAR BEARS AT RYRKAYPIY
Ryrkaypiy is located the base of a spit where walrus herds have congregated every few years in the fall, since at least 2007. Walrus numbers are way up compared to what they were in the 1990s and the size of herds that have come ashore in recent years have been rather astonishing (Crockford 2014; Fay and Kelly 1980; Fay et al. 1989; Fischbach et al. 2016; Lowry 1985; MacCracken et al. 2017). The town is just a little over a mile from the cliffs where the infamous Netflix and BBC walrus videos were shot in 2017. A mile is nothing for a polar bear: bears that ‘normally’ hang out on the spit are close enough to the village to cause trouble if they are so inclined.
In 2013, more than 40 polar bears were reported to be threatening Ryrkaypiy residents because they were drawn to two whale carcasses washed ashore nearby:
“Bear scare: Crowds of polar predators ‘besiege’ Russian Far East town“(11 November 2013):
“Forty-three predators have gathered together near the village of Ryrkaypy, according to WWF Russia. Polar bears were spotted near the remains of two dead whales, washed onto the beaches several kilometers away from the Chukotka settlement. “The last time a large number of polar bears gathered in one place was discovered on the Arctic coast of Chukotka in the fall of 2006,” head of the Polar Bear Patrol WWF project Viktor Nikiforov said.”
Online news outlet Gizmodo reported in late October 2017:
“…Ryrkaypiy, a tiny village located on the northern coast of Chukotka bordering the Chukchi Sea. According to a report by the Siberian Times, 5,000 walruses recently hauled out on a shoreline near the village. The walruses were followed by about 20 polar bears, no doubt drawn by the stench of thousands of blubbery, flippered meals. The arrival of the bears caused the walruses to panic, and many attempted to flee. Per the Siberian Times, “several hundred” fell to their deaths off the cliffs of the nearby Kozhevnikova Cape. The bears, naturally, went to town on the carcasses.”
In 2007, polar bears descended on the village after a massive herd of 40,000 walrus spent time on the spit that fall, leaving more than 500 carcasses on local beaches from animals that had died naturally from falls or trampling.
Bottom line: This year’s report differed from the influx of bears that terrorized the village in 2007 and 2019 because the village seems to have finally taken sufficient measures to keep the bears out of town. Lack of sea ice caused by human-caused global warming is not causing increasing numbers of polar bears to congregate around Ryrkaypiy in the late fall. A combination of increasing numbers of bears plus an abundance of walrus that have died of natural causes earlier in the year are almost certainly the proximate cause. Carcasses of walrus and dead whales are an attractive source of food for polar bears who must replenish fat they have lost over the summer before the cold and darkness of winter sets in. These sources of fat are just as useful to bears for that purpose as live seals and are easier to access. Polar bears are often smarter than polar bear biologists assume.
REFERENCES
AC SWG 2018. Chukchi-Alaska polar bear population demographic parameter estimation. Eric Regehr, Scientific Working Group (SWG. Report of the Proceedings of the 10th meeting of the Russian-American Commission on Polar Bears, 27-28 July 2018), pg. 5. Published 30 July 2018. US Fish and Wildlife Service.
Adam, R., Bryan, A., Quakenbush, L., Crawford, J., and Biderman, L. 2019. Bearded seal productivity in Alaska using harvest-based monitoring, 1975-2016. Poster presentation, Alaska Marine Science Symposium, 28 January-1 February.
References
Crockford, S.J. 2014. On The Beach: Walrus Haulouts are Nothing New. The Global Warming Policy Foundation Briefing 11, London. Pdf here
Fay, F.H. and Kelly, B.P. 1980. Mass natural mortality of walruses (Odobenus rosmarus) at St. Lawrence Island, Bering Sea, autumn 1978. Arctic 33:226-245. [open access] PDF here.
Fay, F.H., Kelly, B.P. and Sease, J.L. 1989. Managing the exploitation of Pacific walruses: a tradegy of delayed response and poor communication. Marine Mammal Science 5:1-16. PDF HERE.
Fischbach, A.S., Kochnev, A.A., Garlich-Miller, J.L. and Jay, C.V. 2016. Pacific walrus coastal haulout database, 1852-2016 – Background Report. USGS Open-File Report 2016-1108. DOI: 10.3133/ofr20161108 PDF HERE, download here.
Lowry, L. 1985. “Pacific Walrus – Boom or Bust?” Alaska Fish & Game Magazine July/August: 2-5. pdf here.
MacCracken, J.G., Beatty, W.S., Garlich-Miller, J.L., Kissling, M.L and Snyder, J.A. 2017. Final Species Status Assessment for the Pacific Walrus (Odobenus rosmarus divergens), May 2017 (Version 1.0). US Fish & Wildlife Service, Anchorage, AK. Pdf here (8.6 mb).
Regehr, E.V., Hostetter, N.J., Wilson, R.R., Rode, K.D., St. Martin, M., Converse, S.J. 2018. Integrated population modeling provides the first empirical estimates of vital rates and abundance for polar bears in the Chukchi Sea. Scientific Reports 8 (1) DOI: 10.1038/s41598-018-34824-7 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-34824-7
Rode, K.D., Regehr, E.V., Douglas, D., Durner, G., Derocher, A.E., Thiemann, G.W., and Budge, S. 2014. Variation in the response of an Arctic top predator experiencing habitat loss: feeding and reproductive ecology of two polar bear populations. Global Change Biology 20(1):76-88. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.12339/abstract
Rode, K. D., R. R. Wilson, D. C. Douglas, V. Muhlenbruch, T.C. Atwood, E. V. Regehr, E.S. Richardson, N.W. Pilfold, A.E. Derocher, G.M Durner, I. Stirling, S.C. Amstrup, M. S. Martin, A.M. Pagano, and K. Simac. 2018. Spring fasting behavior in a marine apex predator provides an index of ecosystem productivity. Global Change Biology http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.13933/full
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wattsupwiththat--2020-12-24--China’s Green NGO Climate Propaganda Enablers

A very enlightening article from Ruper Darwall over at Real Clear Energy Climate change is a national security threat – but not in the way the national security elite assumes .
By Rupert Darwall December 21 , 2020 Shortly before the Soviet Union collapsed , Greenpeace opened an office in Moscow .
It enjoyed the patronage of a leading member of the Soviet Academy of Sciences and enjoyed Kremlin funding , laundered through a state-owned record company .
The green activist group made clear that it would have nothing to do with environmental groups in the Baltic republics .
Recycling @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as little more than separatist organizations .
This pattern , wherein the West ’ s enemies use the environmental movement – whether NGOs like Greenpeace , foundations , or “ concerned scientists , ” to undermine Western interests – is now being repeated , this time in respect to China .
A report by Patricia Adams for the London-based Global Warming Policy Foundation released earlier this month lays bare the role of the green movement in acting as China ’ s propagandists .
Since Xi Jinping became general secretary of the Chinese Communist @ @ @ @ @ @ @ who believed China ’ s communist regime would become more benign internally and less threatening externally has revised his opinion – everyone , that is , apart from climate activists .
“ Rather than becoming cautious about China ’ s role in the world , these groups lavish it with praise for its environmental efforts , ” Adams notes .
NRDC ’ s head of Asia strategy , Barbara Finamore , has even written a book , Perhaps the only It ’ s a very good article , including how the West funds @ @ @ @ @ @ @ doesn ’ t even need to pay for the propaganda work it wants to do inside the United States .
The San Francisco-based NGO , Energy Foundation China , has disbursed over $ 330 million to U.S. registered organizations operating in China , funding provided by multibillion-dollar foundations such as the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation and the Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation .
The CEO of Energy Foundation China is Ji Zou , a Chinese national and former government official and climate negotiator .
China is a great power using global warming to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Soviet Union ’ s sclerotic economy , China ’ s is far from a state of collapse .
Indeed , China is likely to be the only major economy to emerge larger at the end of 2020 than at the beginning .
For China , climate change offers a strategic opportunity .
Decarbonizing the rest of the world makes China ’ s economy stronger – it weakens its rivals ’ economies , reduces the cost of energy for its hydrocarbon-hungry economy , and sinks energy-poor India as a potential Indo-Pacific rival .

A very enlightening article from Ruper Darwall over at Real Clear Energy
Climate change is a national security threat – but not in the way the national security elite assumes. By Rupert Darwall December 21, 2020 Shortly before the Soviet Union collapsed, Greenpeace opened an office in Moscow. It enjoyed the patronage of a leading member of the Soviet Academy of Sciences and enjoyed Kremlin funding, laundered through a state-owned record company. The green activist group made clear that it would have nothing to do with environmental groups in the Baltic republics. Recycling standard Soviet propaganda, Greenpeace denounced them as little more than separatist organizations.
This pattern, wherein the West’s enemies use the environmental movement – whether NGOs like Greenpeace, foundations, or “concerned scientists,” to undermine Western interests – is now being repeated, this time in respect to China. A report by Patricia Adams for the London-based Global Warming Policy Foundation released earlier this month lays bare the role of the green movement in acting as China’s propagandists. Since Xi Jinping became general secretary of the Chinese Communist Party eight years ago, almost everyone who believed China’s communist regime would become more benign internally and less threatening externally has revised his opinion – everyone, that is, apart from climate activists. “Rather than becoming cautious about China’s role in the world, these groups lavish it with praise for its environmental efforts,” Adams notes. NRDC’s head of Asia strategy, Barbara Finamore, has even written a book, Will China Save the Planet? Perhaps the only
It’s a very good article, including how the West funds the activities of its enemies.
Beijing doesn’t even need to pay for the propaganda work it wants to do inside the United States. The San Francisco-based NGO, Energy Foundation China, has disbursed over $330 million to U.S. registered organizations operating in China, funding provided by multibillion-dollar foundations such as the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation and the Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation. The CEO of Energy Foundation China is Ji Zou, a Chinese national and former government official and climate negotiator.
I strongly suggest reading the full article.
China is a great power using global warming to advance its geopolitical interests. Unlike the Soviet Union’s sclerotic economy, China’s is far from a state of collapse. Indeed, China is likely to be the only major economy to emerge larger at the end of 2020 than at the beginning. For China, climate change offers a strategic opportunity. Decarbonizing the rest of the world makes China’s economy stronger – it weakens its rivals’ economies, reduces the cost of energy for its hydrocarbon-hungry economy, and sinks energy-poor India as a potential Indo-Pacific rival.
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wattsupwiththat--2020-12-23--WHO continues to go full Ministry of Truth

I have seen had hard evidence that Covid is a designed bioweapon .
That would be a super big deal… if say the US Milt … where to take responsibility for solving the US COVID PROBLEM .
I heard the US Military are going to make a formal announcement in the US on or before January 15th concerning covid ’ s origins .
There is in the UK the ‘ discovery ’ of a new strain of covid that is more contagious and that defeats the new vaccines “ Meanwhile , more than 50 nations have also imposed their own @ @ @ @ @ @ @ France.
” The new ‘ strain ’ of covid was designed using advance digital biological science that enables , any possible , precise change in the virus structure to be made for strategic deadly biological purposes using software .
The new digital biological engineering field ; has found a way to create a perfect software model of virus like entities .
The software simulation of the virus ; is then run on a second software package that determines the human body ’ s response to the new virus as well as virus natural @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with the simulated host .
The same software could take the digital representation of a new vaccine , run it in the simulated human body response to determine how the human body response would change .
And then use that info to design a new version of Covid that can defeat the new vaccine , So the Chinese covid biological package can using software make precise changes ; Say to defeat the two new 95 % effective vaccines ; By suddenly 7 mutations that all happen to the key spike protein ; Which @ @ @ @ @ @ @ software code is then changed into live virus in a wet lab and released according to evil plan .
So do you understanding the Game ?
The Western countries spend billions of dollars coming up with vaccines ; And China gets a sample of the new vaccine and in new York minute… Can ‘ Design ’ a new ‘ version ’ of covid that defeats the new vaccine .
“ Anyone in the U.K. who has been in South Africa in the past fortnight , and anyone who is a close contact of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the past fortnight must quarantine immediately , ” he said , adding that they must restrict all contact “ with any person , whatsoever.
” 30 years of Chinese propaganda was a complete waste of money .
If the US public and the world find out an organized , state funded , group of evil people in China designed and released Covid and Covid Spike Protein modified .
“ South African officials say they alerted the UK about this new variant last week , ” she said .
“ They say it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the second wave ( South Africa ) is currently experiencing .
It has been identified in Kwazulu-Natal province in the eastern cape and Garden Route area , that ’ s the Cape Town area .
”

‘Who controls the past, controls the future: who controls the present controls the past’. Orwell’s 1984
The climate wars which reached fever pitch a decade ago gave us a window into this sort of behavior by government bureaucrats.
The Internet and new media have given us additional visibility into the unrepentant behavior of those who would lie to us for our own good. I cannot overstate my disgust with those who have completely destroyed the credibility of the medical establishment.
God help us if something serious actually occurs.
Here is the WHO rewriting history and definitions to further their agenda.
Orwell did not envisage how simple it would be for the Ministry of Truth to rewrite history when it’s on the Internet.
Here is the current page where this content resides.
Notice in this video embedded on the page, this lying bureaucrat claims: “We have no therapeutics” and postulates a case fatality rate of 1%.
HT/@DrEliDavid
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wattsupwiththat--2020-12-24--Spiegel Article By Stefan Rahmstorf Has “Nothing In The Least To Do With Science”…”Embarrassing”

The world is going underwater ?
…Really ?
“ Der Spiegel ” has an in-house columnist on climate issues : Stefan Rahmstorf from PIK Potsdam .
His latest prank : “ Why the sea level is rising faster and faster “ .
He writes in the introduction , citing data : We want to check this and find something : the European data from “ Copernicus ” .
They cover the period from 1993 to March 2020 , so they are very recent .
Now we search for the trend increase claimed by Rahmstorf and calculate 5-year trends of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ plotted on the abscissa : Indeed we find the trend increase : if the 5-year trends were quite accurate at 3 mm/year until 2003 , they dropped until 2011 , after which they increased to the value Rahmstorf mentioned until 2015 , but then dropped again to the just a little above the 3mm/year they already had at the beginning .
Has the long-term trend changed ?
No , From 1993 to now it is quite exactly 3 mm/year .
Does internal variability play into it , which influences the ( in terms @ @ @ @ @ @ @ set of 1993-2019 ( complete years ) in such a way that one can interpret all sorts of things into it , if one wants to ?
We find a hint where Rahmstorf linked to the data , but we have to look into the past of the website of the University of Colorado : In 2013 ( after a strong La Nina event in 2012 ) it was shown there how the sea level rise depends on La Nina and El Nino ( ENSO for short ) .
After the La Nina @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Nino in 2016 , so this explains the peak in the top image .
What Rahmstorf calls a “ consequence of fossil energy use ” ( namely the trend increase of sea level rise ) in a bold subheading of his “ Spiegel ” article is in reality the consequence of natural ENSO variability ?
We can ’ t accept this from a serious oceanographer ( his job title ) .
We therefore look into peer-reviewed science and come across a very recent paper ( Iz & Shum 2020 ) in the Journal @ @ @ @ @ @ @ much more meticulously than we have been able to do with the data set of satellite-based observations of sea level and find plenty of natural forcing variables that belie some acceleration in the short data set .
The authors end by advising that assessments of future trends should be “ undertaken with extreme caution.
” Rahmstorf does not do this when he later concludes , “ Houston , we have a problem.
” What follows from Rahmstorf is the ever familiar narrative : tipping points of Greenland ice , etc .
etc.. Again @ @ @ @ @ @ @ can write something like that , but it has nothing in the least to do with science .
The “ Spiegel ” should correctly mark the article of Rahmstorf as “ a citizen ’ s opinion ” because it is nothing more .
He neither reports the state of science nor shows the uncertainties of his own conclusions .
Addendum from CR : Some background on Rahmstorf At the end of the day , the secret of Rahm-smoothing is that it ’ s a triangular filter with linear padding .
All the high-falutin @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and “ nonlinear … lines ” is simply fluff .
All the claims about doing something “ new ” are untrue , as are Rahmstorf ’ s claims that he did not use “ padding ” .
Rahmstorf ’ s shift from M=11 to M=15 is merely a shift from one triangular filter to a wider triangular filter – it is not unreasonable to speculate on the motive for the shift , given that there was a material change in the rhetorical appearance of the smoothed series .
Finally , I do not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a copyright interest in the triangular filter ( The Team ) .
Quite aside from the realclimatescientistsmoothingalgorithmparameterselectioncontroversy , another interesting aspect of Figure 3 of the Copnhagen Synthesis Report is the cone of model projections .
Today I ’ ll show you how to do a similar comparison for an AR4 model of your choice .
Unlike Rahmstorf , I ’ ll show how this is done , complete with turnkey code .
I realize that this is not according to GARP ( Generally Accepted Realclimatescientist Procedure ) , but even realclimatescientists publishing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ methodology .
Here is Figure 3 from the Copenhagen Synthesis Report .
I take it that the grey cone is the spread of model projections – note that the caption says that these are from the Third Assessment Report .
Raising the question – why the Third Assessment Report ?
Wouldn ’ t the Fourth Assessment Report be more relevant ?

Reposted from the NoTricksZone
By P Gosselin on 23. December 2020
By Die kalte Sonne
(Translated/edited, subheadings by P. Gosselin)
“Der Spiegel” has an in-house columnist on climate issues: Stefan Rahmstorf from PIK Potsdam. His latest prank: “Why the sea level is rising faster and faster“. He writes in the introduction, citing data:
The rate of rise has doubled during this period, from 2.1 to 4.8 mm per year.”
We want to check this and find something: the European data from “Copernicus”. They cover the period from 1993 to March 2020, so they are very recent. Now we search for the trend increase claimed by Rahmstorf and calculate 5-year trends of the global measured values up to the year plotted on the abscissa:
Fact: No long term trend change
Indeed we find the trend increase: if the 5-year trends were quite accurate at 3 mm/year until 2003, they dropped until 2011, after which they increased to the value Rahmstorf mentioned until 2015, but then dropped again to the just a little above the 3mm/year they already had at the beginning.
Has the long-term trend changed? No, From 1993 to now it is quite exactly 3 mm/year.
Rahmstorf shady use of statistics
Does internal variability play into it, which influences the (in terms of climate) still rather short data set of 1993-2019 (complete years) in such a way that one can interpret all sorts of things into it, if one wants to?
We find a hint where Rahmstorf linked to the data, but we have to look into the past of the website of the University of Colorado:
No serious oceanographer
In 2013 (after a strong La Nina event in 2012) it was shown there how the sea level rise depends on La Nina and El Nino (ENSO for short).
After the La Nina in 2012, there was an El Nino in 2016, so this explains the peak in the top image. What Rahmstorf calls a “consequence of fossil energy use” (namely the trend increase of sea level rise) in a bold subheading of his “Spiegel” article is in reality the consequence of natural ENSO variability? We can’t accept this from a serious oceanographer (his job title).
New peer reviewed paper contradicts Rahmtorf
We therefore look into peer-reviewed science and come across a very recent paper (Iz & Shum 2020) in the Journal of Geodetic Science. The authors examine much more meticulously than we have been able to do with the data set of satellite-based observations of sea level and find plenty of natural forcing variables that belie some acceleration in the short data set.
The authors end by advising that assessments of future trends should be “undertaken with extreme caution.”
Rahmstorf does not do this when he later concludes, “Houston, we have a problem.” What follows from Rahmstorf is the ever familiar narrative: tipping points of Greenland ice, etc. etc.. Again he ends with the well-known:
The next two decades will determine how many island nations will sink and how many coastal cities will be flooded.”
You can write something like that, but it has nothing in the least to do with science.
Sloppy journalism by Spiegel? “Embarrassing”
The “Spiegel” should correctly mark the article of Rahmstorf as “a citizen’s opinion” because it is nothing more. He neither reports the state of science nor shows the uncertainties of his own conclusions.
Embarrassing for an oceanographer.
Addendum from CR: Some background on Rahmstorf
At the end of the day, the secret of Rahm-smoothing is that it’s a triangular filter with linear padding. All the high-falutin’ talk about “embedding dimension” and “nonlinear … lines” is simply fluff. All the claims about doing something “new” are untrue, as are Rahmstorf’s claims that he did not use “padding”. Rahmstorf’s shift from M=11 to M=15 is merely a shift from one triangular filter to a wider triangular filter – it is not unreasonable to speculate on the motive for the shift, given that there was a material change in the rhetorical appearance of the smoothed series. Finally, I do not believe that the Team could successful assert a copyright interest in the triangular filter ( The Team). Steve McIntyre
Quite aside from the realclimatescientistsmoothingalgorithmparameterselectioncontroversy, another interesting aspect of Figure 3 of the Copnhagen Synthesis Report is the cone of model projections. Today I’ll show you how to do a similar comparison for an AR4 model of your choice. Unlike Rahmstorf, I’ll show how this is done, complete with turnkey code. I realize that this is not according to GARP (Generally Accepted Realclimatescientist Procedure), but even realclimatescientists publishing in peerreviewedliterature should be accountable for their methodology. Here is Figure 3 from the Copenhagen Synthesis Report. I take it that the grey cone is the spread of model projections – note that the caption says that these are from the Third Assessment Report. Raising the question – why the Third Assessment Report? Wouldn’t the Fourth Assessment Report be more relevant? Steve McIntyre
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wattsupwiththat--2020-12-24--A blazar in the early universe

A blazar in the early universe

The supersharp radio “ vision ” of the National Science Foundation ’ s Very Long Baseline Array ( VLBA ) has revealed previously unseen details in a jet of material ejected at three-quarters the speed of light from the core of a galaxy some 12.8 billion light-years from Earth .
The galaxy , dubbed PSO J0309+27 , is a blazar , with its jet pointed toward Earth , and is the brightest radio-emitting blazar yet seen at such a distance .
It also is the second-brightest X-ray emitting blazar at such a distance .
In this image , the brightest @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s core , at bottom right .
The jet is propelled by the gravitational energy of a supermassive black hole at the core , and moves outward , toward the upper left .
The jet seen here extends some 1,600 light-years , and shows structure within it .
At this distance , PSO J0309+27 is seen as it was when the universe was less than a billion years old , or just over 7 percent of its current age .
An international team of astronomers led by Cristiana Spingola of the University of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in April and May of 2020 .
Their analysis of the object ’ s properties provides support for some theoretical models for why blazars are rare in the early universe .
The researchers reported their results in the journal .
The National Radio Astronomy Observatory is a facility of the National Science Foundation , operated under cooperative agreement by Associated Universities , Inc .

Details revealed in galaxy’s jet 12.8 billion light-years from Earth
National Radio Astronomy Observatory
Research News
IMAGE: VLBA image of the blazar PSO J0309+27 at a distance of 12.8 billion light-years from Earth. Galaxy’s core is at bottom right, and jet is propelled outward from the core… view more Credit: Spingola et al.; Bill Saxton, NRAO/AUI/NSF.
The supersharp radio “vision” of the National Science Foundation’s Very Long Baseline Array (VLBA) has revealed previously unseen details in a jet of material ejected at three-quarters the speed of light from the core of a galaxy some 12.8 billion light-years from Earth. The galaxy, dubbed PSO J0309+27, is a blazar, with its jet pointed toward Earth, and is the brightest radio-emitting blazar yet seen at such a distance. It also is the second-brightest X-ray emitting blazar at such a distance.
In this image, the brightest radio emission comes from the galaxy’s core, at bottom right. The jet is propelled by the gravitational energy of a supermassive black hole at the core, and moves outward, toward the upper left. The jet seen here extends some 1,600 light-years, and shows structure within it.
At this distance, PSO J0309+27 is seen as it was when the universe was less than a billion years old, or just over 7 percent of its current age.
An international team of astronomers led by Cristiana Spingola of the University of Bologna in Italy, observed the galaxy in April and May of 2020. Their analysis of the object’s properties provides support for some theoretical models for why blazars are rare in the early universe. The researchers reported their results in the journal Astronomy & Astrophysics.
###
The National Radio Astronomy Observatory is a facility of the National Science Foundation, operated under cooperative agreement by Associated Universities, Inc.
CREDIT: Spingola et al.; Bill Saxton, NRAO/AUI/NSF.
From EurekAlert!
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