thetennesseestar--2020-04-02--Census Bureau’s Assistant Regional Manager Michelle Archer Explains Why It’s Important to Complete t

Census Bureau’s Assistant Regional Manager Michelle Archer Explains Why It’s Important to Complete the Census

On Wednesday ’ s Tennessee Star Report with Michael Patrick Leahy – broadcast on Nashville ’ s Talk Radio 98.3 and 1510 WLAC weekdays from 5:00 a.m. to 8:00 a.m. – Leahy was joined on the line by the Census Bureau ’ s Regional Director Michelle Archer .
During the third hour , Archer explained the purpose of the census and how it can provide for proper grants and funding to be distributed by state and counties .
She added that April 1 was a purposely chosen day as it sets as a reminder and allows enough time for as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ forms whether by mail , online or phone .
Leahy : And we are joined now by Michelle Archer Assistant Regional Manager for the Census Bureau who is going to talk a little bit about something else going on in 2020 .
Good morning Michelle .
Archer : Good morning Michael and thank you very much for having me and providing me with the opportunity about the importance of the Census .
I ’ m happy to be here .
Leahy : I ’ m an amateur genealogist and I pour through all @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ m going to talk about here .
I pour through all of the census records that go back to 1790 .
When there was a fire and most of them were gone .
But we still have those available at ancestry.com up to 1940 .
I think 1950 is going to come in shortly .
I will tell you this though , I love the census for my genealogical research .
I have to tell you when I get that form , I say , do I really want to fill this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ should .
Archer : Absolutely .
For a number of reasons .
Not only for genealogy but for the importance of the community .
A lot of people don ’ t realize that the Census Bureau collects data in order to fund programs for things like emergency management .
Healthcare infrastructures .
Schools .
Federal programs .
So the data that we collect and the population data that we collect is used directly to determine how much funding each state gets for those programs .
As well as other state and localized programs @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that happens after census as well .
Including the ancestry.com .
The ancestry.com uses our records in order to help update their records as well .
Leahy : So the constitution requires that a census is taken every ten years .
So we ’ ve been doing this since 1790 .
Every 10 years .
It ’ s 2020 so the census is in process .
You have a lot of stuff going on long before the coronavirus pandemic hit .
Well , it has been all coronavirus pandemic for the past 30 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ influenced the way the Census Bureau is collecting data ?
Archer : Right .
The census data hasn ’ t been immune to the coronavirus crisis .
Just like the country and the world we are taking measures to help make sure that our employees and the public are safe and healthy .
So some of the things that we ’ re doing is delaying operations .
So our in field operations are the operations are where we have face to face time with the public .
And because we have worked with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ health administrators to help us determine when best to do that we have decided to delay the in field operations face to face .
But some of the things that we can do and the public can do to help us with that is to complete this form now .
Census forms are going out .
The invitations have gone out .
People are receiving them in the mail .
We are really strongly encouraging people to respond online .
Online .
We are strongly encouraging that .
That ’ s the quickest @ @ @ @ @ @ @ We also have other options for response .
People can call into our questionnaire assistance center and speak to a live census taker that will have them complete the questionnaire .
The number is 844-330-2020 .
Another option is starting next week we will be mailing out paper forms to the majority of the United States so that people wanting to respond via paper , mailbox or phone and can do so .
And those forms will start going out as early as next week .
Leahy : So the postcard you ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ contact us and go online ?
And you ’ re going to send out now more detailed paper documents ?
Is that right ?
Archer : Right .
So it ’ s not actually a postcard , its an invitation letter that gives a census ID and you ’ ll go online and put that ID in .
The ID is a link to your address so that we know that that address or household is responding .
It ’ s the same exact questions that would be on the paper form just @ @ @ @ @ @ @ use and you know just click through and respond online .
The paper form would have the same exact questions that the online form does as well .
It just gives people another option for responding .
Leahy : So I got that letter on Friday .
And it ’ s sitting on my table unopened .
( Chuckles ) Archer : Oh no !
Oh no !
You are going to respond right ?
Leahy : Well like most of us we have a few other things to do .
Some of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ m in the news business I have a lot to do these days .
So if I were to go in and be energetic and I would open up that envelope there ’ s a super-secret code just for me there right ?
Archer : Absolutely .
Not just for you but for that address .
For that address .
It ’ s not tied to any particular person but that address .
You put that code in and you will be responding for whoever lives in that household or that address @ @ @ @ @ @ @ about the significance of today .
We really appreciate you having me on today because April 1 is what we deem Census Day .
And Census Day is the reference day that we use to determine where someone lives .
So the first question on the form is who lived in this address on April 1 of 2020 ?
We really want to get a strong push to encourage people to respond today .
Not only today because the census response will be open for several months on end .
But this gives @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and get the form completed .
So , Michael , I ’ m asking you to complete your form today because it ’ s important and to really share that message not with only people in your family but with other friends and family members .
And really get the people pushed to respond to the census so that we can get the results and the data we need for Nashville and the state of Tennessee .
Leahy : So I go in and open it up and I get my super-secret code @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it take me to do that online ?
Archer : It depends on how many people live in the household but typically its less than 10 minutes to respond .
Leahy : I could probably do that .
Just because you ’ ve asked me .
Only because you ’ ve asked me I ’ m going to do that sometime this week .
Leahy : You are very welcome .
About this reference day thing ?
A couple of things .
How long has April 1 been the reference day for the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ been the reference date for several censuses .
And it was determined that we needed to use a reference day to complete the data on where someone lives .
Leahy : That ’ s smart .
As a genealogist , I go back and look at 1840 , 1850 , 1860 and that ’ s one of my big questions .
Sometimes I would think they would have various reference days all throughout the year .
So it got confusing when people would move from one state to the other .
Which would @ @ @ @ @ @ @ back then .
I like that .
Can you consider this ?
( Chuckles ) Because I think this would be a good branding move for the Census Bureau .
When you talk to your boss and they talked to their boss , why don ’ t you think about making April 2 the reference date instead of April 1 for obvious reasons ?
Archer : Obvious reasons .
Right .
We are considering the other reason that April 1 is significant .
We need to have a beginning of the moth because @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and help determine .
And April first happens to be the day .
Although we want people to know that its April Fools ’ Day .
We also want you to link that to Census Day .
It ’ s April Fools ’ Day however it is important and I do want to share this message with everyone I know in order to get our forms completed and ourselves counted and get our fair share of our funding .
Leahy : I can understand the timeline .
It makes sense if you want @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the year .
It makes sense .
But I ’ m going to argue at the beginning of the month .
Make it March 1 or May 1 .
I don ’ t think it ’ s the greatest branding .
But that ’ s just my view .
( Chuckles ) Archer : I will .
I ’ ll give them the message Michael .
Leahy : Michelle thank you so much for calling us and perhaps you ’ ll come back in a couple of months and tell us the progress @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Anyone can track progress at 2020census.gov .
There ’ s a really cool map online that we use in order to track progress .
You can see how well you all are doing .
Listen to the full third hour : Tune in weekdays from 5:00 – 8:00 a.m. to the Tennessee Star Report with Michael Patrick Leahy on Talk Radio 98.3 FM WLAC 1510 .
Listen online at iHeart Radio .
Photo “ U.S .
Census Bureau Mail ” by Mj .
CC BY-SA 4.0 .

On Wednesday’s Tennessee Star Report with Michael Patrick Leahy – broadcast on Nashville’s Talk Radio 98.3 and 1510 WLAC weekdays from 5:00 a.m. to 8:00 a.m. – Leahy was joined on the line by the Census Bureau’s Regional Director Michelle Archer.
During the third hour, Archer explained the purpose of the census and how it can provide for proper grants and funding to be distributed by state and counties. She added that April 1 was a purposely chosen day as it sets as a reminder and allows enough time for as many people as possible to complete the forms whether by mail, online or phone.
Leahy: And we are joined now by Michelle Archer Assistant Regional Manager for the Census Bureau who is going to talk a little bit about something else going on in 2020. Good morning Michelle.
Archer: Good morning Michael and thank you very much for having me and providing me with the opportunity about the importance of the Census. I’m happy to be here.
Leahy: I’m an amateur genealogist and I pour through all of this, you know what I’m going to talk about here. I pour through all of the census records that go back to 1790. When there was a fire and most of them were gone. But we still have those available at ancestry.com up to 1940. I think 1950 is going to come in shortly. I will tell you this though, I love the census for my genealogical research. I have to tell you when I get that form, I say, do I really want to fill this thing out? Tell me why I should.
Archer: Absolutely. For a number of reasons. Not only for genealogy but for the importance of the community. A lot of people don’t realize that the Census Bureau collects data in order to fund programs for things like emergency management. Healthcare infrastructures. Schools. Federal programs.
So the data that we collect and the population data that we collect is used directly to determine how much funding each state gets for those programs. As well as other state and localized programs. As well as redistricting. Redistricting that happens after census as well. Including the ancestry.com. The ancestry.com uses our records in order to help update their records as well.
Leahy: So the constitution requires that a census is taken every ten years. So we’ve been doing this since 1790. Every 10 years. It’s 2020 so the census is in process. You have a lot of stuff going on long before the coronavirus pandemic hit. Well, it has been all coronavirus pandemic for the past 30 days. How has the coronavirus pandemic influenced the way the Census Bureau is collecting data?
Archer: Right. The census data hasn’t been immune to the coronavirus crisis. Just like the country and the world we are taking measures to help make sure that our employees and the public are safe and healthy. So some of the things that we’re doing is delaying operations.
So our in field operations are the operations are where we have face to face time with the public. And because we have worked with the guidance from local states and federal health administrators to help us determine when best to do that we have decided to delay the in field operations face to face.
But some of the things that we can do and the public can do to help us with that is to complete this form now. Census forms are going out. The invitations have gone out. People are receiving them in the mail. We are really strongly encouraging people to respond online. Online. We are strongly encouraging that.
That’s the quickest fastest and easiest thing to do. We also have other options for response. People can call into our questionnaire assistance center and speak to a live census taker that will have them complete the questionnaire. The number is 844-330-2020. Another option is starting next week we will be mailing out paper forms to the majority of the United States so that people wanting to respond via paper, mailbox or phone and can do so. And those forms will start going out as early as next week.
Leahy: So the postcard you’ve sent out was, hey just contact us and go online? And you’re going to send out now more detailed paper documents? Is that right?
Archer: Right. So it’s not actually a postcard, its an invitation letter that gives a census ID and you’ll go online and put that ID in. The ID is a link to your address so that we know that that address or household is responding. It’s the same exact questions that would be on the paper form just in an easier format that people could use and you know just click through and respond online. The paper form would have the same exact questions that the online form does as well. It just gives people another option for responding.
Leahy: So I got that letter on Friday. And it’s sitting on my table unopened. (Chuckles)
Archer: Oh no! Oh no! You are going to respond right?
Leahy: Well like most of us we have a few other things to do. Some of us not so much. Since I’m in the news business I have a lot to do these days. So if I were to go in and be energetic and I would open up that envelope there’s a super-secret code just for me there right?
Archer: Absolutely. Not just for you but for that address. For that address. It’s not tied to any particular person but that address. You put that code in and you will be responding for whoever lives in that household or that address on April 1. Let me speak about the significance of today. We really appreciate you having me on today because April 1 is what we deem Census Day.
And Census Day is the reference day that we use to determine where someone lives. So the first question on the form is who lived in this address on April 1 of 2020? We really want to get a strong push to encourage people to respond today. Not only today because the census response will be open for several months on end.
But this gives a strong push for people to respond and get the form completed. So, Michael, I’m asking you to complete your form today because it’s important and to really share that message not with only people in your family but with other friends and family members. And really get the people pushed to respond to the census so that we can get the results and the data we need for Nashville and the state of Tennessee.
Leahy: So I go in and open it up and I get my super-secret code for my residence, how long will it take me to do that online?
Archer: It depends on how many people live in the household but typically its less than 10 minutes to respond.
Leahy: I could probably do that. Just because you’ve asked me. Only because you’ve asked me I’m going to do that sometime this week.
Archer: Thank you.
Leahy: You are very welcome. About this reference day thing? A couple of things. How long has April 1 been the reference day for the census?
Archer: April 1 has been the reference date for several censuses. And it was determined that we needed to use a reference day to complete the data on where someone lives.
Leahy: That’s smart. As a genealogist, I go back and look at 1840, 1850, 1860 and that’s one of my big questions. Sometimes I would think they would have various reference days all throughout the year. So it got confusing when people would move from one state to the other.
Which would happen with a surprising degree of frequency back then. I like that. Can you consider this? (Chuckles) Because I think this would be a good branding move for the Census Bureau. When you talk to your boss and they talked to their boss, why don’t you think about making April 2 the reference date instead of April 1 for obvious reasons?
Archer: Obvious reasons. Right. We are considering the other reason that April 1 is significant. We need to have a beginning of the moth because it is easier for everybody to determine and help determine. And April first happens to be the day.
Although we want people to know that its April Fools’ Day. We also want you to link that to Census Day. It’s April Fools’ Day however it is important and I do want to share this message with everyone I know in order to get our forms completed and ourselves counted and get our fair share of our funding.
Leahy: I can understand the timeline. It makes sense if you want it all done by the end of the year. It makes sense. But I’m going to argue at the beginning of the month. Make it March 1 or May 1. I don’t think it’s the greatest branding. But that’s just my view. (Chuckles)
Archer: Alright.
Leahy: Tell your bosses!
Archer: I will. I’ll give them the message Michael.
Leahy: I’m sure they’ll be listening.
Leahy: Michelle thank you so much for calling us and perhaps you’ll come back in a couple of months and tell us the progress on the Census Bureau.
Archer: Anyone can track progress at 2020census.gov. There’s a really cool map online that we use in order to track progress. You can see how well you all are doing.
Leahy: 2020census.gov.
Listen to the full third hour:
– – –
Tune in weekdays from 5:00 – 8:00 a.m. to the Tennessee Star Report with Michael Patrick Leahy on Talk Radio 98.3 FM WLAC 1510. Listen online at iHeart Radio.
Photo “U.S. Census Bureau Mail” by Mj. CC BY-SA 4.0.


thetennesseestar--2020-04-02--Inside the Dark Money Dem Group Using an Umbrella Network to Flay Trump Over His Virus Response

Two left-leaning large super pac groups that kickstarted a digital ad campaign targeting President Donald Trump ’ s coronavirus response have ties to a wealthy , shadowy dark money network .
American Bridge 21st Century and Pacronym are reportedly cutting ads thrashing Trump ’ s handling of the virus and becoming two of the first super pacs to go after the president on the health crisis .
Both groups also have ties to two large nonprofit groups — New Venture Fund and Sixteen Thirty Fund — connected to a massive left-leaning consulting group .
NVF gave one of Pacronym ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ while providing American Bridge $ 40,000 in 2018 , according to NVF ’ s 2018 IRS documents .
IRS records also indicate American Bridge pulled in $ 200,000 in 2018 from nonprofit Sixteen Thirty Fund , which reportedly spent $ 141 million on various left-leaning causes during the midterm election year .
Sixteen Thirty Fund and nonprofit NVF are tied into the same sprawling network , according to an analysis by the Daily Caller News Foundation .
Arabella Advisors , a philanthropic consulting company based in Washington , D.C. , manages four nonprofits @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Fund , Hopewell Fund and the Windward Fund .
Sixteen Thirty Fund has not responded to the DCNF ’ s request for comment , while NVF acknowledged making a grant to ACRONYM in 2018 but noted that it “ has nothing to do with the activities at PACRONYM or American Bridge.
” NVF also notified the DCNF that it provided a “ grant to the Daily Caller News Foundation in the past.
” Arabella representative Steve Sampson called NVF merely a “ client of ours , ” even though the consulting group shares @ @ @ @ @ @ @ all four groups , according to NVF and Sixteen Thirty Fund ’ s 2018 IRS records .
American Bridge has not responded to the DCNF ’ s request for comment .
Arabella ’ s network raked in $ 582 million in 2017 while taking advantage of tax laws allowing it to conceal the identity of most of its donors , according to a 2019 report from the Capital Research Center , a group that investigates nonprofits and other organizations ’ s spending habits .
Other groups have raised alarms about the network as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ umbrella , and they have these two funds that flow toward both of these groups .
A clearly full-blown left-wing arm that is casting itself as a nonprofit is politicizing this event , ” former Nevada Attorney General Adam Laxalt told the DCNF .
Laxalt is now the Outside Counsel to Americans for Public Trust , a group dedicated to uncovering unethical behavior .
Americans for Public Trust has covered the network in the past .
“ American lives are more important than scoring cheap political points , ” he added after suggesting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ iron is hot and making certain they capitalize on a crisis that has so far killed thousands of people .
Some Democrats are taking on a similar approach .
Former Vice President Joe Biden , for instance , is also criticizing Trump ’ s response , which has been off beat , with the president shifting from likening the virus to the flu to restricting travel to China where the virus originated .
Laxalt is referring to Pacronym ’ s announcement on March 17 to plow $ 5 million into a digital advertising @ @ @ @ @ @ @ response .
One of the group ’ s Facebook ads on March 25 suggests Trump “ dismantle a federal team working on pandemics ” ahead of the virus outbreak .
The ad is published through Four is Enough , a Pacronym project ( screencap of website above ) .
American Bridge , for its part , is also thrashing Trump ’ s handling of the issue .
The group is running coronavirus-related ads in Michigan , Wisconsin , and Pennsylvania , all of which are battleground states that the president won in 2016 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2020. he group ’ s Facebook ads lashing out at Trump are similar to Pacronym ’ s content .
“ Neglect .
Botched responses .
Cuts at the Centers for Disease Control , ” American Bridge noted in a March 18-30 ad .
ACRONYM ’ s founder argues the campaign makes sense from a public health and national security perspective .
“ This is a public health issue and a national security issue , but it ’ s also a public policy issue and thus a political one , ” Tara McGowan , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ board , told The Washington Post on March 17 .
Democratic operative David Plouffe , who managed former President Barack Obama ’ s 2008 Whit House bid , sits alongside McGowan on Acronym ’ s board .
Acronym has not responded to the DCNF ’ s repeated requests for comment .
Some academics argue that orchestrating such a campaign skirts ethical rules .
Running advertisements thrashing the president during a health crisis looks bad , according to Daniel Kreiss , a professor of political communication at the University of North Carolina at Chapel @ @ @ @ @ @ @ very fine line between ensuring that the president has the legitimacy to speak authoritatively on what Americans must do in order to be safe , and the very real and legitimate questions to raise regarding how the president has handled this crisis given that he ’ s on the ballot in November , ” Kreiss told The Washington Post in a March 17 report addressing the ad campaign push .
Laxalt , Nevada ’ s former attorney general , expressed a similar position .
“ The timing of attacking the president in battleground @ @ @ @ @ @ @ going to do it , then you name the place .
I think that doing it right this second is outrageous , ” he told the DCNF .
Meanwhile , ACRONYM ’ s McGowan is also creating a constellation of local news websites that act as progressive arms targeting the president and his policies .
McGowan , a digital producer for Obama for America in 2011 and the proprietor behind ACRONYM , raised at least $ 25 million from wealthy liberals to create a media company called Courier Newsroom that is designed to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is rolling out newspapers in swing states to counter what its founder believes is right-wing spin on Facebook and across the digital domain .
Along with the Courier Newsroom , McGowan is also creating Virginia Dogwood and Arizona ’ s Copper Courier , among others that are expected to roll out in Michigan , North Carolina , Pennsylvania , Virginia and Wisconsin , all battleground states .

by Chris White
Two left-leaning large super pac groups that kickstarted a digital ad campaign targeting President Donald Trump’s coronavirus response have ties to a wealthy, shadowy dark money network.
American Bridge 21st Century and Pacronym are reportedly cutting ads thrashing Trump’s handling of the virus and becoming two of the first super pacs to go after the president on the health crisis. Both groups also have ties to two large nonprofit groups — New Venture Fund and Sixteen Thirty Fund — connected to a massive left-leaning consulting group.
NVF gave one of Pacronym’s nonprofit — ACRONYM — $250,000 while providing American Bridge $40,000 in 2018, according to NVF’s 2018 IRS documents. IRS records also indicate American Bridge pulled in $200,000 in 2018 from nonprofit Sixteen Thirty Fund, which reportedly spent $141 million on various left-leaning causes during the midterm election year.
Sixteen Thirty Fund and nonprofit NVF are tied into the same sprawling network, according to an analysis by the Daily Caller News Foundation. Arabella Advisors, a philanthropic consulting company based in Washington, D.C., manages four nonprofits, including the NVF, Sixteen Thirty Fund, Hopewell Fund and the Windward Fund.
Sixteen Thirty Fund has not responded to the DCNF’s request for comment, while NVF acknowledged making a grant to ACRONYM in 2018 but noted that it “has nothing to do with the activities at PACRONYM or American Bridge.” NVF also notified the DCNF that it provided a “grant to the Daily Caller News Foundation in the past.”
Arabella representative Steve Sampson called NVF merely a “client of ours,” even though the consulting group shares a Washington, D.C., office with all four groups, according to NVF and Sixteen Thirty Fund’s 2018 IRS records. American Bridge has not responded to the DCNF’s request for comment.
Arabella’s network raked in $582 million in 2017 while taking advantage of tax laws allowing it to conceal the identity of most of its donors, according to a 2019 report from the Capital Research Center, a group that investigates nonprofits and other organizations’s spending habits. Other groups have raised alarms about the network as well.
“Arabella Network is the umbrella, and they have these two funds that flow toward both of these groups. A clearly full-blown left-wing arm that is casting itself as a nonprofit is politicizing this event,” former Nevada Attorney General Adam Laxalt told the DCNF.
Laxalt is now the Outside Counsel to Americans for Public Trust, a group dedicated to uncovering unethical behavior. Americans for Public Trust has covered the network in the past.
“American lives are more important than scoring cheap political points,” he added after suggesting that the group is striking while the iron is hot and making certain they capitalize on a crisis that has so far killed thousands of people. Some Democrats are taking on a similar approach.
Former Vice President Joe Biden, for instance, is also criticizing Trump’s response, which has been off beat, with the president shifting from likening the virus to the flu to restricting travel to China where the virus originated.
Laxalt is referring to Pacronym’s announcement on March 17 to plow $5 million into a digital advertising campaign railing against Trump’s coronavirus response. One of the group’s Facebook ads on March 25 suggests Trump “dismantle a federal team working on pandemics” ahead of the virus outbreak. The ad is published through Four is Enough, a Pacronym project (screencap of website above).
American Bridge, for its part, is also thrashing Trump’s handling of the issue.
The group is running coronavirus-related ads in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, all of which are battleground states that the president won in 2016 but Democrats believe are in play come 2020. he group’s Facebook ads lashing out at Trump are similar to Pacronym’s content. “Neglect. Botched responses. Cuts at the Centers for Disease Control,” American Bridge noted in a March 18-30 ad.
ACRONYM’s founder argues the campaign makes sense from a public health and national security perspective.
“This is a public health issue and a national security issue, but it’s also a public policy issue and thus a political one,” Tara McGowan, chief executive of the group’s board, told The Washington Post on March 17. Democratic operative David Plouffe, who managed former President Barack Obama’s 2008 Whit House bid, sits alongside McGowan on Acronym’s board.
Acronym has not responded to the DCNF’s repeated requests for comment.
Some academics argue that orchestrating such a campaign skirts ethical rules. Running advertisements thrashing the president during a health crisis looks bad, according to Daniel Kreiss, a professor of political communication at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.
“It’s a very fine line between ensuring that the president has the legitimacy to speak authoritatively on what Americans must do in order to be safe, and the very real and legitimate questions to raise regarding how the president has handled this crisis given that he’s on the ballot in November,” Kreiss told The Washington Post in a March 17 report addressing the ad campaign push.
Laxalt, Nevada’s former attorney general, expressed a similar position. “The timing of attacking the president in battleground states is appalling. If they are going to do it, then you name the place. I think that doing it right this second is outrageous,” he told the DCNF.
Meanwhile, ACRONYM’s McGowan is also creating a constellation of local news websites that act as progressive arms targeting the president and his policies.
McGowan, a digital producer for Obama for America in 2011 and the proprietor behind ACRONYM, raised at least $25 million from wealthy liberals to create a media company called Courier Newsroom that is designed to deliver information favorable to Democrats. Courier is rolling out newspapers in swing states to counter what its founder believes is right-wing spin on Facebook and across the digital domain.
Along with the Courier Newsroom, McGowan is also creating Virginia Dogwood and Arizona’s Copper Courier, among others that are expected to roll out in Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin, all battleground states.
– – – –
Chris White is a reporter at Daily Caller News Foundation.


thetennesseestar--2020-04-02--Feds Approve More Flexibility for Tennessee’s Medicaid Program

The federal government has granted more flexibility to TennCare – Tennessee ’ s state Medicaid program – to help the state handle the COVID-19 outbreak .
Gov .
Bill Lee said during a news conference Wednesday that a federally approved waiver will provide greater flexibility and additional funding to serve the Medicaid population .
Some of the flexibility includes letting TennCare cover services at alternative unlicensed facilities , reimbursing otherwise payable claims from out-of-state providers , and waiving background checks and licensing regulations for physicians who have not yet provided Medicaid coverage but are seeking to .
Lee said Tennessee @ @ @ @ @ @ @ county so every uninsured Tennessean can access medical care .
He said providers have partnered with hospitals to assist with getting Tennesseans tested for COVID-19 if they need to be .
The governor also said Tennessee has secured more than 18 million pieces of personal protective equipment with a total value of $ 45 million .
The PPE have been sent to urban and rural counties .
Higher education institutions have produced 10,000 face shields with 3D printers , and Lee said companies , colleges , universities and private medical providers are innovating @ @ @ @ @ @ @ manage the pandemic .
To combat the spread of COVID-19 , Lee on Monday ordered nonessential businesses to close and urged residents to stay home .
He said Wednesday the most important action a person can do to prevent the spread of the virus is to stay home .
“ As simple as it is , staying at home saves lives , ” Lee said .
“ Right now in this fight against COVID-19 , heroes stay at home .
We need Tennesseans to do that in every corner and every community in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this COVID-19 pandemic that is making its way across Tennessee.
” Tennessee has 2,683 COVID-19 cases , 200 hospitalizations and 24 deaths , according to the Tennessee Department of Health .
The country has more than 211,000 cases and at least 4,718 deaths .
COVID-19 is a respiratory disease caused by a novel coronavirus .
COVID-19 symptoms appear within two to 14 days after exposure and include fever , cough , runny nose and difficulty breathing .
Tyler Arnold reports on Virginia and Tennessee for The Center Square .
He previously worked for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ been published in Business Insider , USA TODAY College , National Review Online and the Washington Free Beacon .

The federal government has granted more flexibility to TennCare – Tennessee’s state Medicaid program – to help the state handle the COVID-19 outbreak.
Gov. Bill Lee said during a news conference Wednesday that a federally approved waiver will provide greater flexibility and additional funding to serve the Medicaid population.
Some of the flexibility includes letting TennCare cover services at alternative unlicensed facilities, reimbursing otherwise payable claims from out-of-state providers, and waiving background checks and licensing regulations for physicians who have not yet provided Medicaid coverage but are seeking to.
Lee said Tennessee also is providing additional resources to every county so every uninsured Tennessean can access medical care. He said providers have partnered with hospitals to assist with getting Tennesseans tested for COVID-19 if they need to be.
The governor also said Tennessee has secured more than 18 million pieces of personal protective equipment with a total value of $45 million. The PPE have been sent to urban and rural counties. Higher education institutions have produced 10,000 face shields with 3D printers, and Lee said companies, colleges, universities and private medical providers are innovating to ensure Tennessee has enough equipment to manage the pandemic.
To combat the spread of COVID-19, Lee on Monday ordered nonessential businesses to close and urged residents to stay home. He said Wednesday the most important action a person can do to prevent the spread of the virus is to stay home.
“As simple as it is, staying at home saves lives,” Lee said. “Right now in this fight against COVID-19, heroes stay at home. We need Tennesseans to do that in every corner and every community in Tennessee, and together we can fight this COVID-19 pandemic that is making its way across Tennessee.”
Tennessee has 2,683 COVID-19 cases, 200 hospitalizations and 24 deaths, according to the Tennessee Department of Health. The country has more than 211,000 cases and at least 4,718 deaths.
COVID-19 is a respiratory disease caused by a novel coronavirus. COVID-19 symptoms appear within two to 14 days after exposure and include fever, cough, runny nose and difficulty breathing.
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Tyler Arnold reports on Virginia and Tennessee for The Center Square. He previously worked for the Cause of Action Institute and has been published in Business Insider, USA TODAY College, National Review Online and the Washington Free Beacon.


thetennesseestar--2020-04-02--Mark Green Schedules Second Coronavirus Town Hall

U.S. Rep. Mark Green , ( R-TN-07 ) has scheduled a second coronavirus tele-town hall for later this week .
Green announced this on his official Facebook page .
Green has scheduled the tele-town hall for 10 a.m. Central Standard Time Friday , April 3 .
There , he will answer people ’ s questions about COVID-19 .
In addition , he booked two additional coronavirus tele-town halls at 6:30 p.m. Central Standard Time on April 9 and at noon Central Time on April 14 .
The congressman asks interested viewers to go to his website and fill out a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Tennessee Star reported , Green held his first coronavirus town hall last Thursday .
Green said during that town hall that there are some unfortunate realities about the $ 2 trillion federal stimulus bill to boost the economy during this emergency .
“ Members of Congress wrote the bill to heal the U.S. economy as it copes with the COVID-19 outbreak , ” Green said .
“ Yes , the legislation will add to the national debt.
” “ And , yes , U.S. Democratic Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi ( D-CA-12 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , including $ 75 million for the National Endowment for the Arts , ” he added .
Green also said he expects to have what he called “ a hockey puck type recession.
” “ We open back up for business whenever that is appropriate based on the community and then the money that is in the economy is going to explode and fuel some massive growth , ” Green said .
“ You will see a massive dip in GDP in this quarter and then a massive increase.
” One small business @ @ @ @ @ @ @ can help him .
Green said the bill helps the self-employed and independent contractors and treats them the same as businesses .
The Small Business Administration , Green went on to say , would help those people cover their expenses .
The SBA will also forgive that loan if the borrowers meet certain criteria .
Green did not set a timetable by which he thinks the country should get back up and running .
“ I don ’ t know that we can put a flag in the dirt and say this is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ date , ” Green said .
“ Businesses need to know and be able to plan if it ’ s going to be Date X or Date Y .
From my perspective , I think that should really depend on the states.
” Chris Butler is an investigative journalist at The Tennessee Star .
Follow Chris on Facebook .
Email tips to [ email protected ]

U.S. Rep. Mark Green, (R-TN-07) has scheduled a second coronavirus tele-town hall for later this week.
Green announced this on his official Facebook page.
Green has scheduled the tele-town hall for 10 a.m. Central Standard Time Friday, April 3. There, he will answer people’s questions about COVID-19.
In addition, he booked two additional coronavirus tele-town halls at 6:30 p.m. Central Standard Time on April 9 and at noon Central Time on April 14.
The congressman asks interested viewers to go to his website and fill out a form for dial-in details.
As The Tennessee Star reported, Green held his first coronavirus town hall last Thursday.
Green said during that town hall that there are some unfortunate realities about the $2 trillion federal stimulus bill to boost the economy during this emergency.
“Members of Congress wrote the bill to heal the U.S. economy as it copes with the COVID-19 outbreak,” Green said. “Yes, the legislation will add to the national debt.”
“And, yes, U.S. Democratic Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi (D-CA-12) stuffed the legislation with pork-barrel projects, including $75 million for the National Endowment for the Arts,” he added.
Green also said he expects to have what he called “a hockey puck type recession.”
“We open back up for business whenever that is appropriate based on the community and then the money that is in the economy is going to explode and fuel some massive growth,” Green said. “You will see a massive dip in GDP in this quarter and then a massive increase.”
One small business owner asked Green specifically how this bill can help him.
Green said the bill helps the self-employed and independent contractors and treats them the same as businesses. The Small Business Administration, Green went on to say, would help those people cover their expenses. The SBA will also forgive that loan if the borrowers meet certain criteria.
Green did not set a timetable by which he thinks the country should get back up and running.
“I don’t know that we can put a flag in the dirt and say this is the date, but we need a date,” Green said.
“Businesses need to know and be able to plan if it’s going to be Date X or Date Y. From my perspective, I think that should really depend on the states.”
– – –
Chris Butler is an investigative journalist at The Tennessee Star. Follow Chris on Facebook. Email tips to [email protected]


thetennesseestar--2020-04-02--Trump Administration Extends Delay of Court Hearings for Asylum Seekers

The Trump administration , citing continuing complications brought on by the coronavirus pandemic , is extending a delay of Migrant Protection Protocol hearings for asylum seekers in Mexico .
Foreign nationals under Migrant Protection Protocols , a program that holds asylum seekers in Mexico for the duration of their court proceedings , will have to wait longer before they can make their case before an immigration judge .
All hearings scheduled through May 1 will be postponed , according to a statement by the Department of Homeland Security ( DHS ) and the Executive Office for Immigration Review ( EOIR @ @ @ @ @ @ @ continued circumstances related to COVID-19 and newly-issued guidance from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention , the Departments of Justice and [ DHS ] have determined to extend the temporary postponement of Migrant Protection Protocols ( MPP ) hearings scheduled through Friday , May 1 , 2020 , ” the statement read .
It continued : “ All presently scheduled hearings will be rescheduled .
The Departments will continually review conditions related to COVID-19 and will make further determinations as necessary in order to ensure that all MPP hearings can proceed as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ who have a hearing date through May 1 are being directed to report to their designated port of entry at the time of their date and obtain a hearing notice , informing them of their updated hearing date .
Migrant Protection Protocols — also popularly known as the “ Remain in Mexico ” program , or simply “ MPP ” — was launched in January 2019 with the intention of controlling the mounting immigration crisis at the U.S.-Mexico border .
The program requires most migrants who reach the U.S. southern border and claim @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cases play out in the immigration court system .
Since its inception , MPP has become the most effective programs by the administration at stemming the flow of illegal aliens appearing before Customs and Border Protection .
Tens of thousands of asylum seekers have since been directed back to Mexico , relieving immigration workers who were stretched thin during the border crisis .
However , like virtually all functions of life at the moment , the program has been forced to adapt to the spread of COVID-19 .
The administration first declared a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , delaying all master calendar and merit hearings until April 22 .
However , as the coronavirus crisis continues , the government is now extending this postponement until May 1 .
The decision will further promulgate the court ’ s backlog of cases .
A spate of immigration courts across the country have temporarily closed their doors , but so far , EOIR has refrained from a total nationwide closing .

by Jason Hopkins
The Trump administration, citing continuing complications brought on by the coronavirus pandemic, is extending a delay of Migrant Protection Protocol hearings for asylum seekers in Mexico.
Foreign nationals under Migrant Protection Protocols, a program that holds asylum seekers in Mexico for the duration of their court proceedings, will have to wait longer before they can make their case before an immigration judge. All hearings scheduled through May 1 will be postponed, according to a statement by the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and the Executive Office for Immigration Review (EOIR) on Wednesday.
“Due to continued circumstances related to COVID-19 and newly-issued guidance from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the Departments of Justice and [DHS] have determined to extend the temporary postponement of Migrant Protection Protocols (MPP) hearings scheduled through Friday, May 1, 2020,” the statement read.
It continued: “All presently scheduled hearings will be rescheduled. The Departments will continually review conditions related to COVID-19 and will make further determinations as necessary in order to ensure that all MPP hearings can proceed as expeditiously as possible when appropriate.”
Migrants who have a hearing date through May 1 are being directed to report to their designated port of entry at the time of their date and obtain a hearing notice, informing them of their updated hearing date.
Migrant Protection Protocols — also popularly known as the “Remain in Mexico” program, or simply “MPP” — was launched in January 2019 with the intention of controlling the mounting immigration crisis at the U.S.-Mexico border. The program requires most migrants who reach the U.S. southern border and claim asylum to remain in Mexico while their cases play out in the immigration court system.
Since its inception, MPP has become the most effective programs by the administration at stemming the flow of illegal aliens appearing before Customs and Border Protection. Tens of thousands of asylum seekers have since been directed back to Mexico, relieving immigration workers who were stretched thin during the border crisis.
However, like virtually all functions of life at the moment, the program has been forced to adapt to the spread of COVID-19.
The administration first declared a postponement of MPP hearings on March 23, delaying all master calendar and merit hearings until April 22. However, as the coronavirus crisis continues, the government is now extending this postponement until May 1. The decision will further promulgate the court’s backlog of cases.
A spate of immigration courts across the country have temporarily closed their doors, but so far, EOIR has refrained from a total nationwide closing.
– – –
Jason Hopkins is a reporter at Daily Caller News Foundation.


thetennesseestar--2020-04-02--Analysis: The Lethality of COVID-19

Analysis: The Lethality of COVID-19

Given the spread of misinformation about COVID-19 , the following analysis contains rigorously documented facts about this disease and its impacts .
These include some vital facts that have been absent or misreported in much of the media ’ s coverage of this issue .
This research also includes a groundbreaking study to determine the lethality of COVID-19 based on the most comprehensive available measure : the total years of life that it will rob from people .
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention ( CDC ) emphasizes that “ this is a rapidly evolving situation , ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be updated each weekday as the CDC publishes new data .
On one hand , the facts show that : • the death rate for people who contract COVID-19 is uncertain but is probably closer to that of the seasonal flu than figures commonly reported by the press .
• the average years of life lost from each COVID-19 death are significantly fewer than common causes of untimely death like accidents and suicides .
• the virus that causes COVID-19 is “ very vulnerable to antibody neutralization ” and has limited ability to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ unlikely to take lives year after year .
• if 240,000 COVID-19 deaths ultimately occur in the United States , the virus will rob about 2.9 million years of life from all Americans who were alive at the outset of 2020 , while accidents will rob them of about 409 million years – or about 140 times more than COVID-19 .
On the other hand , elderly people and those with chronic ailments are extremely vulnerable to COVID-19 .
Furthermore , the disease is highly transmissible , which means it could spread like @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to contain it .
This would greatly increase its death toll .
However , such precautionary measures often have economic and other impacts that can cost lives , and overreacting can ultimately kill more people than are saved .
Per the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention , a total of 186,101 people in the United States have been diagnosed with COVID-19 as of 4:00 PM EST on March 31 , 2020 .
The U.S. population is 329 million people , which means that one out of every 1,771 people has been @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not equally dispersed throughout the nation , so this figure is much higher in some areas and much lower in others .
Reported cases don ’ t include people who may have COVID-19 but have not yet been diagnosed .
Because its incubation period is 2–14 days , the number of people who have been infected could substantially exceed the number who have been diagnosed .
Also , the vast majority of people who contract COVID-19 experience only mild or no symptoms , and many of them may never be diagnosed .
This @ @ @ @ @ @ @ further understates the actual number of people who have been infected .
A February 2020 study in the Journal of the American Medical Association based on data from China found that 81 % of reported COVID-19 cases are “ mild.
” The true portion of such cases is even higher than this , for as the paper explains , there are “ inherent difficulties in identifying and counting mild and asymptomatic cases.
” A rare case in which asymptomatic cases can be counted is the Diamond Princess cruise ship , since all passengers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ who tested positive , 51 % didn ’ t have symptoms when they were tested .
The number of these people who later developed symptoms is currently unavailable .
Conversely , the number of people who have ever been infected may greatly exceed the number who are still infected .
Growing numbers of people who were once diagnosed with COVID-19 have recovered , and the count of those who were unknowingly infected and had fast recoveries could be enormous .
A March 2020 paper in the journal Microbes and Infection notes that “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ able to recover with little to no medical intervention.
” Moreover , a March 2020 paper in the Pediatric Infectious Disease Journal states : “ Preliminary evidence suggests children are just as likely as adults ” to contract COVID-19 , but they are “ less likely to be symptomatic , ” and even those with diagnosed infections typically “ recover 1–2 weeks after the onset of symptoms.
” The upshot of all this is that the number of people who are actively infected and contagious is lower than the total of reported and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the journal Science condenses the factors above into a single number .
It estimates that 86 % of all COVID-19 infections in Wuhan , China “ were undocumented ” before the government implemented travel restrictions .
This means that the number of people who were infected was six times the number of documented infections .
This figure declines as social distancing measures are adopted and as diagnoses and recoveries rise as time passes .
Under that worst-case scenario from Wuhan , if the number of people with contagious COVID-19 infections in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of people who have been diagnosed with it , the average American would have to come in contact with 295 people to be exposed to one person who has it .
A total of 3,603 U.S. residents have died from COVID-19 as of 4:00 PM on March 31 , 2020 .
To put this figure in perspective : • roughly 12,469 people in the U.S. died from the swine flu from April 12 , 2009 to April 10 , 2010 .
Unlike COVID-19 , which mainly kills older people with preexisting health problems @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the swine flu were under the age of 65 .
• an average of 37,000 people in the U.S. have died from influenza ( “ the flu ” ) each year over the past nine years .
• around 170,000 people per year in the U.S. die from accidents .
In other words , deaths from COVID-19 are now 1.7 % of the annual fatalities from the flu and accidents .
Although COVID-19 is a new disease and took its first reported life in the U.S. during late February , this comparison may @ @ @ @ @ @ @ because fatalities from accidents and the flu occur in droves every year , and this is unlikely for COVID-19 .
The primary reason why the flu takes tens of thousands of lives every year is because the viruses that cause it mutate in ways that prevent people from becoming immune to them .
Per the Journal of Infectious Diseases , “ All viruses mutate , but influenza remains highly unusual among infectious diseases ” because it mutates very rapidly , and thus , “ new vaccines are needed almost every year ” to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to be seen about the mutations of the virus that causes COVID-19 , the early indications are that it will not mutate rapidly and become an ongoing scourge .
As detailed in a March 2020 paper in a molecular biology journal that cites Michael Farzan , co‐chair of the Department of Immunology and Microbiology at Scripps Research , once a vaccine for COVID-19 is developed , it “ would not need regular updates , unlike seasonal influenza vaccines ” because the part of the virus that the vaccine targets “ is protected against @ @ @ @ @ @ @ genetic material , or RNA .
The same point applies to naturally acquired immunity .
People who get COVID-19 develop natural antibodies that protect against future infections of it .
The physiology textbook The Human Body in Health and Illness explains that such immunity , which is called “ active immunity , ” is “ generally long lasting.
” The same applies to diseases like measles , mumps , rubella , and polio .
If someone contracts these diseases , they rarely get them again , and furthermore , they are very unlikely @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , these people become firewalls against the spread of these contagions .
Media outlets like The Atlantic , Vox , and Forbes have turned the truth of this matter on its head by confusing the general nature of coronaviruses with that of COVID-19 .
The habit of calling COVID-19 “ the coronavirus ” can be very misleading because there are different types of coronaviruses , and COVID-19 is caused by just one of them .
Coronaviruses are a family of RNA viruses that includes some common cold viruses .
These viruses tend to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ share that trait .
Per the same March 2020 paper cited just above , the virus that causes COVID-19 “ does not mutate rapidly for an RNA virus because , unusually for this category , it has a proof‐reading function ” in its genetics .
Likewise , a February 19th editorial in the British Medical Journal about COVID-19 reports that the “ genome data available so far show no unexpected mutation rate or signs of adaptation….
” Put simply , COVID-19 does not mutate nearly as much as the flu , and thus @ @ @ @ @ @ @ take lives regardless of acquired immunity and vaccines .
If this proves true in the long run , as current evidence suggests it will , the lifetime risk of dying from COVID-19 is greatly overstated by comparing its ultimate death toll to yearly fatalities from the flu , accidents , suicides , and other frequent causes of death .
Beyond raw numbers of deaths , another crucial factor in measuring the deadliness of a public health threat is the ages of its victims .
In the words of the CDC , “ the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ only the number of deaths by cause but also by age.
” Hence , the “ years of potential life lost ” has “ become a mainstay in the evaluation of the impact of injuries on public health.
” In this respect , COVID-19 is much less lethal than common causes of untimely death , such as accidents .
The precise average age of death for COVID-19 fatalities is still unknown , but the vast majority of victims are elderly or have one or more chronic illnesses , as is the case with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Based on the CDC ’ s latest data for the age distribution of deaths , the average age of death for accidents is about 53.3 years , while for the flu and pneumonia , it is about 77.4 years .
Using flu and pneumonia as a rough proxy for COVID-19 , this disease robs an average of 12.0 years of life from each of its victims , as compared to 30.6 years of lost life for each accident .
And again , accidents kill around 170,000 Americans per year , while COVID-19 is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ toll because of its limited prospects for mutation .
In a March 29th comment that generated headlines in virtually every major media outlet , renowned immunologist Anthony Fauci told CNN ’ s Jake Tapper that “ looking at what we ’ re seeing now , I would say between 100,000 and 200,000 ” Americans will die from COVID-19 , but “ I just don ’ t think that we really need to make a projection when it ’ s such a moving target that you can so easily be wrong and mislead people.
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ emphasized that those figures are based on a model , and “ a model is as good as the assumptions that you put into ” it .
A day later at a White House press conference , Dr. Deborah Birx , another world-renowned immunologist , presented a slide of model results based upon “ five or six international and domestic modelers from Harvard , from Columbia , from Northeastern , from Imperial who helped us tremendously.
” The model projects that 100,000 to 240,000 deaths will occur if Americans follow social distancing and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ we really believe and hope every day that we can do a lot better than that because that ’ s not assuming 100 % of every American does everything that they ’ re supposed to be doing , but I think that ’ s possible.
” If the high-end of that range comes to pass , and 240,000 U.S. residents die from COVID-19 , this disease will rob 2.9 million years of life from all Americans who were alive at the outset of 2020 .
In comparison , accidents will rob them of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that accidents are about 140 times more lethal to Americans than this worst-case scenario for COVID-19 given mitigation .
This is a substantially more comprehensive measure of deadliness than the tally of lives lost during a year – or any other random unit of time – because it accounts for the entirety of people ’ s lives and the total years of life that are lost .
While not diminishing the value of any life , these facts speak to the efforts that society takes to save some lives versus others .
Initial @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rate for COVID-19 are inflated , and the actual figure may be closer to that of the flu , which has averaged about 0.15 % over the past nine years in the United States .
A large degree of uncertainty surrounds this issue due to the same factor that prevents accurate counts of infections : unreported cases .
As explained by Dr. Brett Giroir – who has authored nearly 100 peer-reviewed scientific publications and serves as the Assistant Secretary for Health at the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services – the COVID-19 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ heard probably in many reports ” because the bulk of people who contract coronavirus don ’ t get seriously ill , and thus , many of them never get tested .
Giroir calls this a “ denominator problem ” because if you ’ re “ not very ill , as most people are not , they do not get tested .
They do not get counted in the denominator.
” Giroir ’ s best estimate is that the mortality rate is probably “ somewhere between 0.1 % and 1 % .
” This @ @ @ @ @ @ @ mortality rate than the typical flu ” rate of 0.1 % to 0.15 % , “ but it ’ s certainly within the range.
” Giroir ’ s estimate accords with a February 2020 commentary in the New England Journal of Medicine by renowned immunologist Anthony Fauci and others : If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases , the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1 % .
This suggests that the overall clinical consequences @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to those of a severe seasonal influenza ( which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1 % ) or a pandemic influenza ( similar to those in 1957 and 1968 ) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS , which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10 % and 36 % , respectively .
A prime example of how journalists misreport on this issue is a March 12th article in Business Insider by Andy Kiersz .
In this piece , he compares the “ death rates ” of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that of the flu from the United States CDC .
Based on these numbers , he reports that “ South Korea – which has reported some of the lowest coronavirus death rates of any country – still has a COVID-19 death rate more than eight times higher than that of the flu.
” What Kiersz and his editors fail to understand is that the denominator for the Korean rate is the number of “ confirmed cases , ” while the denominator for the U.S. rate is based on a “ mathematical model.
” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by citing a study on swine flu , which multiplies “ 43,677 laboratory-confirmed cases ” of the disease by 41 to 131 times to calculate the denominator for the death rate .
In the authors ’ words , they do this because confirmed cases are : likely a substantial underestimate of the true number .
Correcting for under-ascertainment using a multiplier model , we estimate that 1.8 million–5.7 million cases occurred , including 9,000–21,000 hospitalizations .
Put simply , COVID-19 death rates that are based upon reported or confirmed infections grossly undercount the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ This , in turn , makes the death rate seem substantially higher than reality .
The famous maxim that “ there are six degrees of separation between everyone in the world ” has changed in recent years due to social media .
A 2014 paper in the journal Computers in Human Behavior finds that the “ average number of acquaintances separating any two people ” has declined from six to 3.9 .
A 2011 paper in the American Journal of Sociology estimates that each American knows an average of 550 people .
If @ @ @ @ @ @ @ already know each other , each American has about 220,000 friends of friends – and 88 million friends of friends of friends .
Thus , if everyone is sharing on social media about people they know who have been infected or killed by COVID-19 , it can seem like the world is coming to an end .
Yet , if people did the same for other deaths , each person would hear every year about an average of : • 1,905 deaths among their friends of friends , and 761,844 deaths among their @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 38 deaths from the flu and pneumonia among their friends of friends , and 15,075 such deaths among their friends of friends of friends .
• 6 deaths of people under the age of 65 from the flu and pneumonia among their friends of friends , and 2,385 such deaths among their friends of friends of friends .
In addition to social media , the press acts as another megaphone of COVID-19 ’ s impacts .
Because the U.S. is the third-most populous nation in the world , it is easy for journalists @ @ @ @ @ @ @ certain events and ignoring the broader context of facts that surround them .
This kind of crucial context is missing from much of the media ’ s coverage of COVID-19 and practically every other public policy issue .
Another important factor in weighing the risks posed by COVID-19 is its transmissibility , or how contagious it is .
In this respect , COVID-19 is much more dangerous than the seasonal flu because it spreads very quickly and can overwhelm hospitals .
Scientists measure the contagiousness of diseases with a basic reproduction number , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ who tend to catch a disease from each person who has it .
This measure is an innate characteristic of the disease because it doesn ’ t account for actions that people take to prevent it .
A February 2020 paper published in the Journal of Travel Medicine explains that any disease with a basic reproduction number above 1.0 is likely to multiply over time .
The same paper evaluates 12 studies of the basic reproduction number of COVID-19 in various nations and finds that they “ ranged from 1.4 to 6.49 , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a median of 2.79 .
Based on their analysis of these studies , the authors conclude that the basic reproduction number of COVID-19 will likely prove to be “ around 2–3 ” after “ more data are accumulated.
” In contrast , a 2014 paper in the journal BMC Infectious Diseases analyzes 24 studies of the seasonal flu and finds that the median result for the basic reproduction number is 1.28 .
The authors stress that the seemingly small difference between 1.28 and higher figures like 1.80 “ represent the difference between epidemics @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and those causing a significant number of illnesses and requiring intensive mitigation strategies to control.
” In other words , if the transmissibility of COVID-19 is as high as currently estimated , the aggressive measures that some governments , organizations , and individuals have taken to limit large gatherings and travel from areas with outbreaks will save many more lives than doing the same for common diseases like the flu .
Because COVID-19 spreads so quickly , it can easily overwhelm hospitals and thereby prevent people from getting the care they would otherwise @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , however , mortal dangers in overreacting because measures to limit the spread of COVID-19 often have economic impacts that can cost lives .
As detailed in the textbook Macroeconomics for Today , countries with low economic growth “ are less able to satisfy basic needs for food , shelter , clothing , education , and health.
” These hazards can manifest quickly and over extended periods of time .
If certain industries adopted the social distancing extremes that many people have embraced , this would shut down food production and distribution , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ life-sustaining services .
Even under far more moderate scenarios where people who are not in these industries shun work , all of those necessities and many more aspects of modern life depend on the general strength of the economy .
Thus , overreacting can ultimately kill more people than are saved .
The same applies to people who are flooding supermarkets to stockpile food , toilet paper , and other supplies .
In doing so , they have often stood in close proximity to each other and touched the same items , which @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Panic buying also creates shortages that deprive typical consumers of provisions .
Likewise , panic can fuel suicides , which snuff out about 47,000 lives per year in the U.S. at an average age of 46 years old .
Over a lifetime , that amounts to 132 million lost years of life – or 46 times the loss from COVID-19 if it ultimately kills 240,000 people .
The implications of overreacting to COVID-19 or any other potential hazard are aptly summarized in a teaching guide published by the American Society for Microbiology .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ driving your concept of risk – emotion or fact – may or may not seem particularly important to you , yet they are ” because “ there are risks in misperceiving risks.
” Aggressive social distancing can extend the timeframe over which COVID-19 patients are infected and hospitalized , but it can not by itself reduce those outcomes in the long run .
This is because COVID-19 is so contagious that another outbreak will begin and quickly proliferate as soon as the distancing measures cease .
Hence , the Imperial College ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in order to “ avoid a rebound in transmission , ” policies of “ population-wide social distancing combined with home isolation of cases and school and university closure ” must “ be maintained until large stocks of vaccine are available to immunize the population – which could be 18 months or more.
” Moreover , the report notes that the “ more successful a strategy is at temporary suppression , the larger the later epidemic is predicted to be in the absence of vaccination , due to lesser build-up of herd immunity.
” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ One about “ Immunity in Society ” underscores the importance of that point by noting that : Equally , if very few people are immune to a disease , they can transmit it to others instead of blocking it .
Without a vaccine , the only way people can become immune to COVID-19 is by catching it and recovering .
This means that too much social distancing may cause more deaths because young , healthy people – who would otherwise catch the disease , recover quickly , and become firewalls – remain as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ can keep hospitalizations at reasonable levels so that victims receive proper care , and it can also buy time to discover and mass-produce effective treatments .
This is a distinct possibility in the short term , for as Michael Farzan , co‐chair of the Department of Immunology and Microbiology at Scripps Research , has stated , the same physical feature of the virus that makes it so contagious also makes it : President Trump has touted a small French study showing that treatment with a combination of two drugs , hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin @ @ @ @ @ @ @ load reduction/disappearance in COVID-19 patients….
” The study was published in the International Journal of Antimicrobial Agents , and the 18 scholars who authored it wrote that the “ results are promising ” and “ we recommend that COVID-19 patients be treated with ” these drugs “ to cure their infection and to limit the transmission of the virus to other people.
” Nonetheless , media outlets have covered this matter by reporting that Trump “ is not a doctor ” and that he shouldn ’ t hype “ unproven ” and “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ false hope.
” Theatrics aside , the FDA has issued an Emergency Use Authorization that allows doctors to treat certain hospitalized COVID-19 patients with hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine “ when a clinical trial is not available or feasible.
” The authors of the French study make clear that their “ study has some limitations including a small sample size , limited long-term outcome follow-up , and dropout of six patients from the study , however in the current context , we believe that our results should be shared with the scientific community.
” During @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Surgeon General Jerome Adams asserted that “ this situation will last longer , and more people will be hurt ” if “ we are complacent , selfish , uninformed , ” and if “ we spread fear , distrust , and misinformation.
” Conversely , he said that “ we will overcome this situation ” if we “ pitch in ” and “ share the facts.
” The vital facts above confirm the wisdom of his words .
James D. Agresti is the president of Just Facts , a think tank dedicated @ @ @ @ @ @ @ policy issues .

by James D. Agresti
Given the spread of misinformation about COVID-19, the following analysis contains rigorously documented facts about this disease and its impacts. These include some vital facts that have been absent or misreported in much of the media’s coverage of this issue. This research also includes a groundbreaking study to determine the lethality of COVID-19 based on the most comprehensive available measure: the total years of life that it will rob from people.
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) emphasizes that “this is a rapidly evolving situation,” and as such, this article will be updated each weekday as the CDC publishes new data.
On one hand, the facts show that:
the death rate for people who contract COVID-19 is uncertain but is probably closer to that of the seasonal flu than figures commonly reported by the press.
the average years of life lost from each COVID-19 death are significantly fewer than common causes of untimely death like accidents and suicides.
the virus that causes COVID-19 is “very vulnerable to antibody neutralization” and has limited ability to mutate, which means it is very unlikely to take lives year after year.
if 240,000 COVID-19 deaths ultimately occur in the United States, the virus will rob about 2.9 million years of life from all Americans who were alive at the outset of 2020, while accidents will rob them of about 409 million years – or about 140 times more than COVID-19.
On the other hand, elderly people and those with chronic ailments are extremely vulnerable to COVID-19. Furthermore, the disease is highly transmissible, which means it could spread like wildfire and overwhelm hospitals without extraordinary measures to contain it. This would greatly increase its death toll.
However, such precautionary measures often have economic and other impacts that can cost lives, and overreacting can ultimately kill more people than are saved.
Likelihood of Exposure
Per the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, a total of 186,101 people in the United States have been diagnosed with COVID-19 as of 4:00 PM EST on March 31, 2020. The U.S. population is 329 million people, which means that one out of every 1,771 people has been diagnosed with COVID-19. The disease is not equally dispersed throughout the nation, so this figure is much higher in some areas and much lower in others.
Reported cases don’t include people who may have COVID-19 but have not yet been diagnosed. Because its incubation period is 2–14 days, the number of people who have been infected could substantially exceed the number who have been diagnosed.
Also, the vast majority of people who contract COVID-19 experience only mild or no symptoms, and many of them may never be diagnosed. This means that the count of reported cases further understates the actual number of people who have been infected. A February 2020 study in the Journal of the American Medical Association based on data from China found that 81% of reported COVID-19 cases are “mild.” The true portion of such cases is even higher than this, for as the paper explains, there are “inherent difficulties in identifying and counting mild and asymptomatic cases.”
A rare case in which asymptomatic cases can be counted is the Diamond Princess cruise ship, since all passengers were tested for COVID-19. Among those who tested positive, 51% didn’t have symptoms when they were tested. The number of these people who later developed symptoms is currently unavailable.
Conversely, the number of people who have ever been infected may greatly exceed the number who are still infected. Growing numbers of people who were once diagnosed with COVID-19 have recovered, and the count of those who were unknowingly infected and had fast recoveries could be enormous. A March 2020 paper in the journal Microbes and Infection notes that “most infected individuals … appear to be able to recover with little to no medical intervention.”
Moreover, a March 2020 paper in the Pediatric Infectious Disease Journal states: “Preliminary evidence suggests children are just as likely as adults” to contract COVID-19, but they are “less likely to be symptomatic,” and even those with diagnosed infections typically “recover 1–2 weeks after the onset of symptoms.”
The upshot of all this is that the number of people who are actively infected and contagious is lower than the total of reported and undiagnosed cases.
A March 2020 paper in the journal Science condenses the factors above into a single number. It estimates that 86% of all COVID-19 infections in Wuhan, China “were undocumented” before the government implemented travel restrictions. This means that the number of people who were infected was six times the number of documented infections. This figure declines as social distancing measures are adopted and as diagnoses and recoveries rise as time passes.
Under that worst-case scenario from Wuhan, if the number of people with contagious COVID-19 infections in the U.S. is actually six times the number of people who have been diagnosed with it, the average American would have to come in contact with 295 people to be exposed to one person who has it.
Numbers of Deaths
A total of 3,603 U.S. residents have died from COVID-19 as of 4:00 PM on March 31, 2020. To put this figure in perspective:
In other words, deaths from COVID-19 are now 1.7% of the annual fatalities from the flu and accidents. Although COVID-19 is a new disease and took its first reported life in the U.S. during late February, this comparison may substantially overstate the relative deadliness of COVID-19 because fatalities from accidents and the flu occur in droves every year, and this is unlikely for COVID-19.
The primary reason why the flu takes tens of thousands of lives every year is because the viruses that cause it mutate in ways that prevent people from becoming immune to them. Per the Journal of Infectious Diseases, “All viruses mutate, but influenza remains highly unusual among infectious diseases” because it mutates very rapidly, and thus, “new vaccines are needed almost every year” to protect against it. While much remains to be seen about the mutations of the virus that causes COVID-19, the early indications are that it will not mutate rapidly and become an ongoing scourge.
As detailed in a March 2020 paper in a molecular biology journal that cites Michael Farzan, co‐chair of the Department of Immunology and Microbiology at Scripps Research, once a vaccine for COVID-19 is developed, it “would not need regular updates, unlike seasonal influenza vaccines” because the part of the virus that the vaccine targets “is protected against mutation” by a feature of its genetic material, or RNA.
The same point applies to naturally acquired immunity. People who get COVID-19 develop natural antibodies that protect against future infections of it. The physiology textbook The Human Body in Health and Illness explains that such immunity, which is called “active immunity,” is “generally long lasting.” The same applies to diseases like measles, mumps, rubella, and polio. If someone contracts these diseases, they rarely get them again, and furthermore, they are very unlikely to transmit them to others. Thus, these people become firewalls against the spread of these contagions.
Media outlets like The Atlantic, Vox, and Forbes have turned the truth of this matter on its head by confusing the general nature of coronaviruses with that of COVID-19. The habit of calling COVID-19 “the coronavirus” can be very misleading because there are different types of coronaviruses, and COVID-19 is caused by just one of them. Coronaviruses are a family of RNA viruses that includes some common cold viruses. These viruses tend to mutate rapidly, but COVID-19 does not share that trait. Per the same March 2020 paper cited just above, the virus that causes COVID-19 “does not mutate rapidly for an RNA virus because, unusually for this category, it has a proof‐reading function” in its genetics.
Likewise, a February 19th editorial in the British Medical Journal about COVID-19 reports that the “genome data available so far show no unexpected mutation rate or signs of adaptation….”
Put simply, COVID-19 does not mutate nearly as much as the flu, and thus, it is far less likely to take lives regardless of acquired immunity and vaccines. If this proves true in the long run, as current evidence suggests it will, the lifetime risk of dying from COVID-19 is greatly overstated by comparing its ultimate death toll to yearly fatalities from the flu, accidents, suicides, and other frequent causes of death.
Years of Lost Life
Beyond raw numbers of deaths, another crucial factor in measuring the deadliness of a public health threat is the ages of its victims. In the words of the CDC, “the allocation of health resources must consider not only the number of deaths by cause but also by age.” Hence, the “years of potential life lost” has “become a mainstay in the evaluation of the impact of injuries on public health.”
In this respect, COVID-19 is much less lethal than common causes of untimely death, such as accidents. The precise average age of death for COVID-19 fatalities is still unknown, but the vast majority of victims are elderly or have one or more chronic illnesses, as is the case with deaths from the flu and pneumonia.
Based on the CDC’s latest data for the age distribution of deaths, the average age of death for accidents is about 53.3 years, while for the flu and pneumonia, it is about 77.4 years. Using flu and pneumonia as a rough proxy for COVID-19, this disease robs an average of 12.0 years of life from each of its victims, as compared to 30.6 years of lost life for each accident. And again, accidents kill around 170,000 Americans per year, while COVID-19 is unlikely to have an ongoing high death toll because of its limited prospects for mutation.
In a March 29th comment that generated headlines in virtually every major media outlet, renowned immunologist Anthony Fauci told CNN’s Jake Tapper that “looking at what we’re seeing now, I would say between 100,000 and 200,000” Americans will die from COVID-19, but “I just don’t think that we really need to make a projection when it’s such a moving target that you can so easily be wrong and mislead people.” The next day, Dr. Fauci emphasized that those figures are based on a model, and “a model is as good as the assumptions that you put into” it.
A day later at a White House press conference, Dr. Deborah Birx, another world-renowned immunologist, presented a slide of model results based upon “five or six international and domestic modelers from Harvard, from Columbia, from Northeastern, from Imperial who helped us tremendously.” The model projects that 100,000 to 240,000 deaths will occur if Americans follow social distancing and hygiene guidelines. She added that “we really believe and hope every day that we can do a lot better than that because that’s not assuming 100% of every American does everything that they’re supposed to be doing, but I think that’s possible.”
If the high-end of that range comes to pass, and 240,000 U.S. residents die from COVID-19, this disease will rob 2.9 million years of life from all Americans who were alive at the outset of 2020. In comparison, accidents will rob them of 409 million years.
These figures reveal that accidents are about 140 times more lethal to Americans than this worst-case scenario for COVID-19 given mitigation. This is a substantially more comprehensive measure of deadliness than the tally of lives lost during a year – or any other random unit of time – because it accounts for the entirety of people’s lives and the total years of life that are lost.
While not diminishing the value of any life, these facts speak to the efforts that society takes to save some lives versus others.
Death Rates
Initial media reports of a 2–3% mortality rate for COVID-19 are inflated, and the actual figure may be closer to that of the flu, which has averaged about 0.15% over the past nine years in the United States. A large degree of uncertainty surrounds this issue due to the same factor that prevents accurate counts of infections: unreported cases.
As explained by Dr. Brett Giroir – who has authored nearly 100 peer-reviewed scientific publications and serves as the Assistant Secretary for Health at the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services – the COVID-19 death rate is “lower than you heard probably in many reports” because the bulk of people who contract coronavirus don’t get seriously ill, and thus, many of them never get tested.
Giroir calls this a “denominator problem” because if you’re “not very ill, as most people are not, they do not get tested. They do not get counted in the denominator.” Giroir’s best estimate is that the mortality rate is probably “somewhere between 0.1% and 1%.” This “is likely more severe in its mortality rate than the typical flu” rate of 0.1% to 0.15%, “but it’s certainly within the range.”
Giroir’s estimate accords with a February 2020 commentary in the New England Journal of Medicine by renowned immunologist Anthony Fauci and others:
If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of COVID-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.
A prime example of how journalists misreport on this issue is a March 12th article in Business Insider by Andy Kiersz. In this piece, he compares the “death rates” of COVID-19 from the South Korean CDC to that of the flu from the United States CDC. Based on these numbers, he reports that “South Korea – which has reported some of the lowest coronavirus death rates of any country – still has a COVID-19 death rate more than eight times higher than that of the flu.”
What Kiersz and his editors fail to understand is that the denominator for the Korean rate is the number of “confirmed cases,” while the denominator for the U.S. rate is based on a “mathematical model.” The CDC clarifies how the model works by citing a study on swine flu, which multiplies “43,677 laboratory-confirmed cases” of the disease by 41 to 131 times to calculate the denominator for the death rate. In the authors’ words, they do this because confirmed cases are:
likely a substantial underestimate of the true number. Correcting for under-ascertainment using a multiplier model, we estimate that 1.8 million–5.7 million cases occurred, including 9,000–21,000 hospitalizations.
Put simply, COVID-19 death rates that are based upon reported or confirmed infections grossly undercount the number of people with the disease. This, in turn, makes the death rate seem substantially higher than reality.
Social Media Amplification
The famous maxim that “there are six degrees of separation between everyone in the world” has changed in recent years due to social media. A 2014 paper in the journal Computers in Human Behavior finds that the “average number of acquaintances separating any two people” has declined from six to 3.9.
A 2011 paper in the American Journal of Sociology estimates that each American knows an average of 550 people. If 150 of these are mutual connections who already know each other, each American has about 220,000 friends of friends – and 88 million friends of friends of friends.
Thus, if everyone is sharing on social media about people they know who have been infected or killed by COVID-19, it can seem like the world is coming to an end. Yet, if people did the same for other deaths, each person would hear every year about an average of:
1,905 deaths among their friends of friends, and 761,844 deaths among their friends of friends of friends.
38 deaths from the flu and pneumonia among their friends of friends, and 15,075 such deaths among their friends of friends of friends.
6 deaths of people under the age of 65 from the flu and pneumonia among their friends of friends, and 2,385 such deaths among their friends of friends of friends.
In addition to social media, the press acts as another megaphone of COVID-19’s impacts. Because the U.S. is the third-most populous nation in the world, it is easy for journalists to create misleading impressions by focusing on certain events and ignoring the broader context of facts that surround them. This kind of crucial context is missing from much of the media’s coverage of COVID-19 and practically every other public policy issue.
Transmissibility
Another important factor in weighing the risks posed by COVID-19 is its transmissibility, or how contagious it is. In this respect, COVID-19 is much more dangerous than the seasonal flu because it spreads very quickly and can overwhelm hospitals.
Scientists measure the contagiousness of diseases with a basic reproduction number, which is the average number of people who tend to catch a disease from each person who has it. This measure is an innate characteristic of the disease because it doesn’t account for actions that people take to prevent it. A February 2020 paper published in the Journal of Travel Medicine explains that any disease with a basic reproduction number above 1.0 is likely to multiply over time.
The same paper evaluates 12 studies of the basic reproduction number of COVID-19 in various nations and finds that they “ranged from 1.4 to 6.49,” with an average of 3.28 and a median of 2.79. Based on their analysis of these studies, the authors conclude that the basic reproduction number of COVID-19 will likely prove to be “around 2–3” after “more data are accumulated.”
In contrast, a 2014 paper in the journal BMC Infectious Diseases analyzes 24 studies of the seasonal flu and finds that the median result for the basic reproduction number is 1.28. The authors stress that the seemingly small difference between 1.28 and higher figures like 1.80 “represent the difference between epidemics that are controllable and cause moderate illness and those causing a significant number of illnesses and requiring intensive mitigation strategies to control.”
In other words, if the transmissibility of COVID-19 is as high as currently estimated, the aggressive measures that some governments, organizations, and individuals have taken to limit large gatherings and travel from areas with outbreaks will save many more lives than doing the same for common diseases like the flu. Because COVID-19 spreads so quickly, it can easily overwhelm hospitals and thereby prevent people from getting the care they would otherwise receive under normal circumstances.
Overreactions
There are, however, mortal dangers in overreacting because measures to limit the spread of COVID-19 often have economic impacts that can cost lives. As detailed in the textbook Macroeconomics for Today, countries with low economic growth “are less able to satisfy basic needs for food, shelter, clothing, education, and health.” These hazards can manifest quickly and over extended periods of time.
If certain industries adopted the social distancing extremes that many people have embraced, this would shut down food production and distribution, health care, utilities, and other life-sustaining services. Even under far more moderate scenarios where people who are not in these industries shun work, all of those necessities and many more aspects of modern life depend on the general strength of the economy. Thus, overreacting can ultimately kill more people than are saved.
The same applies to people who are flooding supermarkets to stockpile food, toilet paper, and other supplies. In doing so, they have often stood in close proximity to each other and touched the same items, which opens avenues to spread the disease. Panic buying also creates shortages that deprive typical consumers of provisions.
Likewise, panic can fuel suicides, which snuff out about 47,000 lives per year in the U.S. at an average age of 46 years old. Over a lifetime, that amounts to 132 million lost years of life – or 46 times the loss from COVID-19 if it ultimately kills 240,000 people.
The implications of overreacting to COVID-19 or any other potential hazard are aptly summarized in a teaching guide published by the American Society for Microbiology. This book explains why “the factors driving your concept of risk – emotion or fact – may or may not seem particularly important to you, yet they are” because “there are risks in misperceiving risks.”
The Path Forward
Aggressive social distancing can extend the timeframe over which COVID-19 patients are infected and hospitalized, but it cannot by itself reduce those outcomes in the long run. This is because COVID-19 is so contagious that another outbreak will begin and quickly proliferate as soon as the distancing measures cease.
Hence, the Imperial College’s March 16th report on COVID-19 states that in order to “avoid a rebound in transmission,” policies of “population-wide social distancing combined with home isolation of cases and school and university closure” must “be maintained until large stocks of vaccine are available to immunize the population – which could be 18 months or more.”
Moreover, the report notes that the “more successful a strategy is at temporary suppression, the larger the later epidemic is predicted to be in the absence of vaccination, due to lesser build-up of herd immunity.” A 2012 paper in the journal PLoS One about “Immunity in Society” underscores the importance of that point by noting that:
when a sufficiently high proportion of individuals within a population becomes immune (either through prior exposure or through mass vaccination), community or “herd” immunity emerges, whereby individuals that are poorly immunized are protected by the collective “immune firewall” provided by immunized neighbors. In humans and other vertebrate communities … responses to a previously encountered pathogen are faster and stronger than those to a novel pathogen, and thus individuals are better at blocking its spread. [Emphasis added.]
Equally, if very few people are immune to a disease, they can transmit it to others instead of blocking it. Without a vaccine, the only way people can become immune to COVID-19 is by catching it and recovering. This means that too much social distancing may cause more deaths because young, healthy people – who would otherwise catch the disease, recover quickly, and become firewalls – remain as potential carriers.
However, social distancing can keep hospitalizations at reasonable levels so that victims receive proper care, and it can also buy time to discover and mass-produce effective treatments. This is a distinct possibility in the short term, for as Michael Farzan, co‐chair of the Department of Immunology and Microbiology at Scripps Research, has stated, the same physical feature of the virus that makes it so contagious also makes it:
very vulnerable to antibody neutralization, and thus it is a relatively easy virus to protect against. I refer to it as “stupid” on a spectrum where HIV, which lives in the face of an active immune system for years, is a “genius.”
President Trump has touted a small French study showing that treatment with a combination of two drugs, hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin, “is significantly associated with viral load reduction/disappearance in COVID-19 patients….” The study was published in the International Journal of Antimicrobial Agents, and the 18 scholars who authored it wrote that the “results are promising” and “we recommend that COVID-19 patients be treated with” these drugs “to cure their infection and to limit the transmission of the virus to other people.” Nonetheless, media outlets have covered this matter by reporting that Trump “is not a doctor” and that he shouldn’t hype “unproven” and “untested” treatments or give people “false hope.”
Theatrics aside, the FDA has issued an Emergency Use Authorization that allows doctors to treat certain hospitalized COVID-19 patients with hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine “when a clinical trial is not available or feasible.” The authors of the French study make clear that their “study has some limitations including a small sample size, limited long-term outcome follow-up, and dropout of six patients from the study, however in the current context, we believe that our results should be shared with the scientific community.”
During a March 14th press conference, U.S. Surgeon General Jerome Adams asserted that “this situation will last longer, and more people will be hurt” if “we are complacent, selfish, uninformed,” and if “we spread fear, distrust, and misinformation.” Conversely, he said that “we will overcome this situation” if we “pitch in” and “share the facts.”
The vital facts above confirm the wisdom of his words.
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James D. Agresti is the president of Just Facts, a think tank dedicated to publishing rigorously documented facts about public policy issues.