thehuffingtonpost--2020-11-07--Reality Finally Caught Up To President Donald Trump

But partisans still must decide whether to vote .
One reason Hillary Clinton lost in 2016 was that not enough of hers did .
And then there are the less committed partisans ― the ones who don ’ t lean so strongly in one direction or the other , who think about the previous four years and the next , and who ask themselves which candidate promises to be a more capable , responsible leader .
In the final week before Election Day , Trump barnstormed the country at rallies that were likely superspreader events , insisting that the country @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was just the latest example of Trump pretending the crisis did not exist and failing to respond even when his own experts were asking and sometimes begging him to act ― a pattern that stretched all the way back to January , when Trump reportedly dismissed early warnings as “ alarmist.
” Eventually the administration took more control of managing the crisis and at least one of its big initiatives , a big investment in vaccine development , seems likely to yield real relief soon .
But that success always took place against @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pronouncements on fighting the virus , from the hyping of hydroxychloroquine to the suggestion that injecting bleach was something to explore .
Even COVID-19 Deaths Weren ’ t Enough To Shake Most Partisans That doesn ’ t mean voters elsewhere felt the same way .
Especially in states like Michigan , Trump ’ s attacks on more popular Democratic governors addressing the crisis more aggressively may have backfired ― not because voters in those states believed their governors were making all the right decisions , but because they could see their governors taking @ @ @ @ @ @ @ scientists and showing compassion for constituents who were suffering .
These are very basic , simple tasks that come naturally to most leaders but were evidently foreign to Trump .
And that is something that almost surely resonated with voters , especially when they considered him alongside Biden ― who has a record of managing government projects , who made clear his intentions to listen to scientists , and who , as even his critics acknowledge , is famous for his shows of empathy .
Democrats Have A Big Debate Ahead Of Them

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Elections have consequences, as the saying goes. And sometimes elections are the consequences.
Donald Trump has lost the presidency, as the television networks and decision desks have now declared. It will take time to sort through the results and talk to voters, in order to figure out exactly why they decided to oust him after one term. But Trump’s job performance surely had some impact.
The question is how much.
For most Americans, assessments of Trump lined up with prior political convictions: Republican voters thought he was doing well, Democratic voters didn’t. It is still very much a red America and a blue America, maybe more than at any time in modern history.
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But partisans still must decide whether to vote. One reason Hillary Clinton lost in 2016 was that not enough of hers did. And then there are the less committed partisans ― the ones who don’t lean so strongly in one direction or the other, who think about the previous four years and the next, and who ask themselves which candidate promises to be a more capable, responsible leader.
Some combination of higher turnout among Democratic partisans and more of these independents voting Democratic is the reason that President-elect Joe Biden narrowly carried Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin ― three parts of the fabled “blue wall” that Trump had won narrowly in 2016, giving him the win.
It feels like a narrow victory, even if Biden also holds his current leads in Arizona and Georgia, because both the Electoral College itself and the results within those tipping states are genuinely close. But those thin margins are a product of the geographic distribution of the population and belie the much larger margin in the popular vote.
As of Friday, Biden’s lead over Trump in the popular vote was more than 4 million. By the time the counting is done, it could reach as high as 7 million. Biden’s final share of the popular vote is likely to end up around 52%, according to FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver.
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That would be close to what Barack Obama got in 2008 and more than any Republican since George H.W. Bush in 1988.
Overall, the verdict in this election is unambiguous: The majority of citizens want Biden, not Trump, to run the country. Looking back on the last four years, It’s not at all hard to imagine why they might have made that decision.
Mismanagement of COVID-19
The most important issue of the past year and the one that reflects most directly on Trump’s job performance is his management of the COVID-19 pandemic. At last count, more than 230,000 Americans are dead, millions more have been sickened, and the country is in the middle of a third surge that epidemiologists predicted but that Trump insisted wouldn’t happen.
In the final week before Election Day, Trump barnstormed the country at rallies that were likely superspreader events, insisting that the country was “rounding the corner.” It was just the latest example of Trump pretending the crisis did not exist and failing to respond even when his own experts were asking and sometimes begging him to act ― a pattern that stretched all the way back to January, when Trump reportedly dismissed early warnings as “alarmist.”
When the numbers became too big to ignore, Trump promised that the outbreak was under control and would go away soon. It wasn’t and didn’t. When doctors, nurses and other health care providers were struggling to get protective supplies, Trump said the states should take charge ― even though, traditionally, the federal government did that.
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Eventually the administration took more control of managing the crisis and at least one of its big initiatives, a big investment in vaccine development, seems likely to yield real relief soon. But that success always took place against the backdrop of Trump’s unscientific pronouncements on fighting the virus, from the hyping of hydroxychloroquine to the suggestion that injecting bleach was something to explore.
More consequently, perhaps, Trump dismissed the importance of masks and openly mocked Biden for wearing one. He continued to do this, amazingly, even after the White House event for Supreme Court nominee Amy Coney Barrett became a superspreader event ― and, even more amazingly, after he contracted the virus himself.
The ultimate Trump failure on COVID-19 was his apparent embrace of “herd immunity,” the concept of letting the virus run rampant while protecting the elderly and most vulnerable. Most public health experts rejected the strategy, partly because actually segregating the elderly and the vulnerable turns out to be difficult if not impossible ― which means that, in reality, it’s a strategy for more mass death among those groups.
Even COVID-19 Deaths Weren’t Enough To Shake Most Partisans
It’s clear that there were still plenty of Americans who looked at this record and agreed with Trump’s take ― or, at the very least, did not hold him responsible for the pandemic’s impact.
Some chafed at exhortations to wear masks, which became a cultural signifier in the red-versus-blue political wars, while others dismissed reports of sickness and death as “fake news.”
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Those sentiments go a long way toward explaining what seems, at first blush, to be the most confounding result of the election: The counties with the biggest COVID-19 surges right now also gave Trump some of his biggest support.
But the correlation makes perfect sense given that places where COVID-19 is now hitting hardest are predominantly rural counties in the Dakotas, Montana, Iowa and Wisconsin ― in other words, some of the most politically conservative pockets of the U.S. where Trump has always been most popular.
That doesn’t mean voters elsewhere felt the same way. Especially in states like Michigan, Trump’s attacks on more popular Democratic governors addressing the crisis more aggressively may have backfired ― not because voters in those states believed their governors were making all the right decisions, but because they could see their governors taking the threat seriously, listening to the scientists and showing compassion for constituents who were suffering.
These are very basic, simple tasks that come naturally to most leaders but were evidently foreign to Trump. And that is something that almost surely resonated with voters, especially when they considered him alongside Biden ― who has a record of managing government projects, who made clear his intentions to listen to scientists, and who, as even his critics acknowledge, is famous for his shows of empathy.
Did that prove decisive with a large portion of the electorate? Clearly not.
Did it make enough of an impression to change outcomes in the tipping states? Quite possibly, especially insofar as Trump’s management of the crisis was a constant reminder of an erratic, tumultuous presidency many Americans simply have come to find exhausting.
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Obamacare Repeal Effort Also Made An Impression
COVID-19 was not the only issue on which voters could judge Trump. And on some issues, like the economy, voters overall seemed to approve of his job performance. Wages were on the rise before the pandemic and the COVID-19 relief package, which Trump signed, went a long way toward maintaining living standards, especially for lower-income workers.
But before the pandemic, arguably the defining policy episode of his tenure was his effort to repeal the Affordable Care Act ― an effort that occupied much of his first year in office, ultimately failed, and sent his approval rating tumbling down.
The proposed repeal of “Obamacare” proved deeply unpopular once voters realized that promises of an adequate replacement were false. It’s easy to forget now, but Trump as a candidate promised, “I am going to take care of everybody. I don’t care if it costs me votes or not. Everybody’s going to be taken care of much better than they’re taken care of now.”
He made similar vows repeatedly, noting that it was an “un-Republican” thing to say. But once in office, he outsourced policymaking to Republican leaders in Congress and did everything he could to help pass repeal proposals, which envisioned many millions losing coverage. The popular backlash was a major reason House Republicans lost their majority in the 2018 midterms.
Any chance to get past that debate ended when Trump decided to back a far-fetched lawsuit against the health care law, which is now headed for the Supreme Court. It put Trump squarely on the side of taking health insurance away from millions, and preexisting condition protections away from many more, right in the middle of a pandemic.
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Here, too, there’s no reason to think this position hurt Trump with his base. On the contrary, polling late in the cycle showed that the vast majority of Republicans thought Trump would actually do a better job than Biden of protecting people with preexisting conditions.
But independent voters noticed and, in the polls, preferred Biden on that front. Again, it would have taken only a small shift to have an impact on those closely divided swing states.
Democrats Have A Big Debate Ahead Of Them
A big question going forward ― and one that will take analysts some time to parse ― is the extent to which the election results were a verdict on Trump as opposed to the conservative ideology he embraced. That has important implications for the next four years, because it will undoubtedly influence how Biden governs.
Democrats quickly closed ranks behind Biden after a tumultuous primary because they were so determined to oust Trump. But they remain divided ideologically and temperamentally, with arguments already breaking out. On Thursday, progressives and moderates within the House Democratic caucus fought on a conference call, arguing about why the party, which had hoped to pick up a few seats, instead lost several.
More immediately, Democrats must figure out how best to meet the needs of a public still very scared of the virus and experiencing financial pain because COVID-19 relief has lapsed. And they must do so in a world where ― unless they manage to win both of the coming runoffs in Georgia ― Republicans control the Senate.
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But like the Electoral College, the makeup of the Senate is a misleading indicator of public sentiment; the small-state bias gives Republicans disproportionate power. But it is also a fact of political life, one Democrats at the moment are powerless to change.


thehuffingtonpost--2020-11-07--Amazing Photos Of Celebrations As Joe Biden Defeats Donald Trump

Celebrations around the country erupted as news spread that Vice President Joe Biden won the election against President Donald Trump .
Photos showed celebrations in Philadelphia , New York , Washington , and other cities .
See the latest photos below of people celebrating President-elect Joe Biden .
Above : People celebrate on Saturday in Philadelphia after news broke that Democrat Joe Biden defeated President Donald Trump to become 46th president of the United States .
A man carries his child as they wave US flags while celebrating on Black Lives Matter plaza across from the White House .
People @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Bywater section of New Orleans .
Gabi Poletaev , left , and Michael Crowley celebrate at the Chase Center in Wilmington , Delaware .
People celebrate on Black Lives Matter plaza across from the White House in Washington , DC .
A woman touches her head as she reacts in McPherson Square in Philadelphia .
People celebrate on Black Lives Matter plaza across from the White House .
People wave flags and celebrate on Black Lives Matter plaza across from the White House .
A woman holds up a sign while celebrating @ @ @ @ @ @ @ broke out in Philadelphia Saturday over Biden ’ s defeat of Trump .
A photograph of President-elect Joe Biden is held aloft as people celebrate outside the Pennsylvania Convention Center .

Celebrations around the country erupted as news spread that Vice President Joe Biden won the election against President Donald Trump.
Photos showed celebrations in Philadelphia, New York, Washington, and other cities.
See the latest photos below of people celebrating President-elect Joe Biden.
Above: People celebrate on Saturday in Philadelphia after news broke that Democrat Joe Biden defeated President Donald Trump to become 46th president of the United States.
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ALEX EDELMAN via Getty Images
A man carries his child as they wave US flags while celebrating on Black Lives Matter plaza across from the White House.
ERIC BARADAT via Getty Images
People celebrate on Black Lives Matter plaza near the White House.
Gerald Herbert/AP
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People celebrate outside Vaughn’s Lounge in the Bywater section of New Orleans.
Anadolu Agency via Getty Images
New York City erupts in celebration at Times Square.
Noah Berger/AP
Celebrations in Oakland, California.
Joe Raedle via Getty Images
Gabi Poletaev, left, and Michael Crowley celebrate at the Chase Center in Wilmington, Delaware.
ERIC BARADAT via Getty Images
People celebrate on Black Lives Matter plaza across from the White House in Washington, DC.
Yegor Aleyev via Getty Images
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A woman touches her head as she reacts in McPherson Square in Philadelphia.
ALEX EDELMAN via Getty Images
People celebrate on Black Lives Matter plaza across from the White House.
KENA BETANCUR via Getty Images
People celebrate at Times Square in New York.
DANIEL SLIM via Getty Images
People wave flags and celebrate on Black Lives Matter plaza across from the White House.
ERIC BARADAT via Getty Images
A woman holds up a sign while celebrating across from the White House.
Seth Wenig/AP
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People celebrate in Times Square.
ASSOCIATED PRESS
People celebrate outside the Pennsylvania State Capitol in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania.
MANDEL NGAN via Getty Images
Newlyweds walk through Black Lives Matter Plaza near the White House.
Alex Brandon/AP
Amanda Madden sprays champagne as people celebrate at Black Lives Matter Plaza in Washington, DC.
Rebecca Blackwell/AP
Celebrations broke out in Philadelphia Saturday over Biden’s defeat of Trump.
Rebecca Blackwell/AP
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A photograph of President-elect Joe Biden is held aloft as people celebrate outside the Pennsylvania Convention Center.
Rebecca Blackwell/AP
People embrace outside Philadelphia’s Pennsylvania Convention Center.
Jeenah Moon / Reuters
Celebrations also break out in the New York City borough of Manhattan.
Alex Brandon/AP
People gather in Washington’s Black Lives Matter Plaza.
Andrew Kelly / Reuters
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More hugs in Manhattan.
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Spontaneous celebrations in Black Lives Matter Plaza.
Alex Brandon/AP
Janice Jamison of Evans, Georgia, reacts in Washington’s McPherson Square to CNN’s news that Biden defeated Trump.
Joe Raedle via Getty Images


thehuffingtonpost--2020-11-07--Joe Biden And Kamala Harris Let The World Know Their New Roles Via Twitter

As the major news networks and The Associated Press almost simultaneously on Saturday projected the Democratic presidential ticket of Joe Biden and Sen. Kamala Harris of California had won the 2020 election , the pair made it Twitter official .
Biden ’ s Twitter bio listed him as president-elect , while Harris was designated as vice president-elect .
Joe Biden will become the 46th president of the United States .
Kamal Harris will be the first female vice president , as well as the first Black person and Asian American to hold the office .
Biden ’ s Twitter also @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for electing him , and a pledge to put partisan squabbling aside and work on behalf of all Americans .
Harris displayed an emotional video showing her calling Biden as the news of the win had just emerged .
America , I ’ m honored that you have chosen me to lead our great country .
The work ahead of us will be hard , but I promise you this : I will be a President for all Americans — whether you voted for me or not .
I will keep the faith @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pic.twitter.com/moA9qhmjn8 — Joe Biden ( @ JoeBiden ) November 7 , 2020 In contrast , as of early Saturday afternoon , the most recent tweet of current President Donald Trump ― who was at his Virginia golf course as news spread of the Biden and Harris victory ― exclaimed that he “ WON THIS ELECTION , BY A LOT !
” Twitter ― which has indicated that the president ’ s frenzied tweets will no longer receive special treatment once he leaves office ― slapped a disclaimer on his words .

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As the major news networks and The Associated Press almost simultaneously on Saturday projected the Democratic presidential ticket of Joe Biden and Sen. Kamala Harris of California had won the 2020 election, the pair made it Twitter official.
Biden’s Twitter bio listed him as president-elect, while Harris was designated as vice president-elect.
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Joe Biden will become the 46th president of the United States. HuffPost US
Kamal Harris will be the first female vice president, as well as the first Black person and Asian American to hold the office. HuffPost US
Biden’s Twitter also displayed a victory video thanking the country for electing him, and a pledge to put partisan squabbling aside and work on behalf of all Americans. Harris displayed an emotional video showing her calling Biden as the news of the win had just emerged.
America, I’m honored that you have chosen me to lead our great country.
The work ahead of us will be hard, but I promise you this: I will be a President for all Americans — whether you voted for me or not.
I will keep the faith that you have placed in me. pic.twitter.com/moA9qhmjn8 — Joe Biden (@JoeBiden) November 7, 2020
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In contrast, as of early Saturday afternoon, the most recent tweet of current President Donald Trump ― who was at his Virginia golf course as news spread of the Biden and Harris victory ― exclaimed that he “WON THIS ELECTION, BY A LOT!”
Twitter ― which has indicated that the president’s frenzied tweets will no longer receive special treatment once he leaves office ― slapped a disclaimer on his words.


thehuffingtonpost--2020-11-07--Twitter Users Throw Trump's 'Apprentice' Catch Phrase Back In His Face

Many Twitter users only needed two words to express their reaction to Democrat Joe Biden ’ s win over President Donald Trump .
Of course , those two words just happened to be Trump ’ s favorite catch phrase from his days on “ The Apprentice ” : “ You ’ re fired.
” Even before Biden ’ s win in Pennsylvania sealed the Electoral College vote for him , many Twitter users chose to engage in acts of schadenfreude four years in the making .
The race wasn ’ t called until Saturday , but many people started throwing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s face days earlier .
can we designate a time where we can all yell at the same time , `` you 're fired '' ?
— Daphne Brogdon ( @ DaphBrog ) November 6 , 2020 You guys know ... .
as soon as they call this shit ... we are ALL tweeting YOU ’ RE FIRED to Trump .
You know that right ?
We ’ re ALL doing this .
— Hal Sparks ( @ HalSparks ) November 6 , 2020 Once the race was called , people piled even @ @ @ @ @ @ @ family and your yes men and get th fuck out .
You ’ re fired !
!
My son and daughter will be raised in a better America .
🇺🇸 — devon sawa ( @ DevonESawa ) November 7 , 2020 .
@ realDonaldTrump , you ’ re FIRED !
Let me know if you need help applying for unemployment in Florida !
— Rep. Anna V. Eskamani 🔨 ( @ AnnaForFlorida ) November 7 , 2020 My van won ’ t start , but I ’ m so fucking happy about @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ DONG THE BLONDE BITCH IS “ dead ” .
# yourefired pic.twitter.com/1EQuUYauup — Ant ( @ Ant_Writer ) November 7 , 2020 George Takei tweeted the phrase and admitted in another tweet he ’ s wanted to say it since even before Trump became president .
Some people felt that one person above all deserved to post a “ You ’ re fired ” tweet to Trump .
The funniest shit in the world would be if Biden calls him and says ‘ You ’ re fired ’ and hangs up .
https @ @ @ @ @ @ @ somebadideas ) November 6 , 2020 If Biden himself does a `` YOU 'RE FIRED ! ''
tweet , I 'll flip the fuck out along with everyone else .
— Mark Yarm ( @ markyarm ) November 6 , 2020

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Many Twitter users only needed two words to express their reaction to Democrat Joe Biden’s win over President Donald Trump.
Of course, those two words just happened to be Trump’s favorite catch phrase from his days on “The Apprentice”: “You’re fired.”
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Even before Biden’s win in Pennsylvania sealed the Electoral College vote for him, many Twitter users chose to engage in acts of schadenfreude four years in the making. The race wasn’t called until Saturday, but many people started throwing the catch phrase back in Trump’s face days earlier.
can we designate a time where we can all yell at the same time, "you're fired"? — Daphne Brogdon (@DaphBrog) November 6, 2020
You guys know.... as soon as they call this shit... we are ALL tweeting YOU’RE FIRED to Trump.
You know that right?
We’re ALL doing this. — Hal Sparks (@HalSparks) November 6, 2020
When do I get to tweet, “You’re fired?”@waltshaub — Chris Barron (@thechrisbarron) November 6, 2020
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Once the race was called, people piled even more.
You’re fired. — Jordan Peele (@JordanPeele) November 7, 2020
— @realDonaldTrump take your family and your yes men and get th fuck out. You’re fired!!
My son and daughter will be raised in a better America. 🇺🇸 — devon sawa (@DevonESawa) November 7, 2020
Hello, @realDonaldTrump you're fired. Please gather your things and leave. — 𝕍 𝕒 𝕟 𝕖 𝕤 𝕤 𝕒 ℂ 𝕒 𝕣 𝕝 𝕥 𝕠 𝕟 (@VanessaCarlton) November 7, 2020
.@realDonaldTrump, you’re FIRED! Let me know if you need help applying for unemployment in Florida! — Rep. Anna V. Eskamani 🔨 (@AnnaForFlorida) November 7, 2020
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You about to lose your job!!!!#YOUREFIRED https://t.co/LOjUTkB5K5 — Derrick N Ashong (@DNAtv) November 7, 2020
My van won’t start, but I’m so fucking happy about @JoeBiden Wonderful about @KamalaHarris And DING DONG THE BLONDE BITCH IS “dead”. #yourefired pic.twitter.com/1EQuUYauup — Ant (@Ant_Writer) November 7, 2020
George Takei tweeted the phrase and admitted in another tweet he’s wanted to say it since even before Trump became president.
I’ve been waiting a long time—since Celebrity Apprentice in fact—to say that. — George Takei (@GeorgeTakei) November 6, 2020
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Some people felt that one person above all deserved to post a “You’re fired” tweet to Trump.
The funniest shit in the world would be if Biden calls him and says ‘You’re fired’ and hangs up. https://t.co/PtdEF1Mj2T — Aaron Stewart-Ahn (@somebadideas) November 6, 2020


thehuffingtonpost--2020-11-07--Trump Lost. Trumpism Lives On.

Trump Lost. Trumpism Lives On.

Cotton glided to reelection on Tuesday ― so smoothly , in fact , that he spent the last few weeks campaigning in the key presidential primary states of New Hampshire and Iowa .
Thanks to a 2015 change to Arkansas state law enacted specifically for Cotton ’ s benefit , he can keep his Senate seat and simultaneously run in the 2024 presidential primary .
Cotton is a veteran of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and his big thing is “ law and order.
” He ’ s even more hysterical about crime than Trump is .
He tried @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , which modestly reduced prison time for some federal inmates , by claiming that people newly released from prison would commit crimes and wind up in Willie Horton-style TV ads that cost lawmakers their seats .
For two years , he ’ s been promising that the crime will happen , but it still hasn ’ t .
He nevertheless told The Washington Post in late October that “ there ’ s going to be serious crimes committed by people who are out of prison that would otherwise be in prison.
” Hawley @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the War on Christmas .
He is constantly on alert for any offense to America ’ s Christian majority from the “ managerial front row of American society , the class of the faculty lounge and the C-suite , ” as he described it in July speech on the Senate floor , possibly forgetting that he is the product of Stanford and Yale and fancy law firms , and that he was an actual professor at the University of Missouri Law School .
“ They have used violent tactics to put down @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and dye blasted at protesters , ” Hawley said in a Senate floor speech after the trip .
“ I just have to say , having been there myself , having been to the streets , having seen the protesters , having met with them and talked with them , their courage and their bravery under pressure is really something to behold.
” But in May , after Minneapolis police killed George Floyd and sparked a wave of Black Lives Matter marches , Hawley dismissed the overwhelmingly peaceful demonstrations as “ increasingly violent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Lives Matter , perhaps the largest protest movement in U.S. history , decried not just police misconduct but also the systemic racism that pervades every aspect of Black life in America .
Of course , nobody in politics is as corrupt , shameless and ignorant as Trump , and nobody in Congress has his weird celebrity charisma , which was vital to his victory in the 2016 Republican primary .
Cotton is far more disciplined , often declining to speak to reporters and choosing his words with robotic precision when he does talk @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2016 , Trump campaigned as a different kind of Republican , one who wasn ’ t out to get Social Security or Medicare , who generally supported government intervention as long as it wasn ’ t “ welfare.
” It ’ s effective politics : People like when the government helps them , a fact that is strangely elusive to both Republicans and Democrats .
But Trump governed more like a typical Republican .
In recent months he nominally supported extra unemployment benefits and direct payments to households as part of the response @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , but he didn ’ t support them enough to strike a deal with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi ( D-Calif. ) , even though the economy is in horrible shape and a boost would have helped him win reelection .
Hawley has sprinkled his public persona with economic populism , taking positions on trade and antitrust that are unusual for a Republican ( except that they aligned with various Trump beefs of the past two years ) .
In response to the pandemic , he proposed huge additional amounts of federal spending to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pay monthly benefits to families struggling during the pandemic .
But his proposals weren ’ t much more than press releases ; it was another Republican , Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida , who actually worked with Democrats to create a payroll support program that temporarily saved millions of jobs over the summer .
“ If it includes blue-state bailout money , then I ’ d say that ’ s probably a hard no , ” he said .
The dismissal is a reminder that like almost every other Republican senator , he @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the rich and in March voted against giving workers an extra $ 600 unemployment benefit if it amounted to more than their previous wage .
The extra benefit was probably most populist thing Congress has done in years .

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President Donald Trump has lost the election, but even if he goes away, plenty of people are vying to become the new leader of his grievance movement.
Possible pretenders to the Trump throne include his adult sons, TV talking heads, Cabinet officials, governors and members of Congress. Two of the most prominent are Sens. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) and Josh Hawley (R-Mo.), Ivy League graduates who have used their short tenures as U.S. senators to make themselves into Trump-style demagogues.
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Cotton glided to reelection on Tuesday ― so smoothly, in fact, that he spent the last few weeks campaigning in the key presidential primary states of New Hampshire and Iowa. Thanks to a 2015 change to Arkansas state law enacted specifically for Cotton’s benefit, he can keep his Senate seat and simultaneously run in the 2024 presidential primary.
Cotton is a veteran of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and his big thing is “law and order.” He’s even more hysterical about crime than Trump is. He tried to torpedo the 2018 First Step Act, which modestly reduced prison time for some federal inmates, by claiming that people newly released from prison would commit crimes and wind up in Willie Horton-style TV ads that cost lawmakers their seats.
For two years, he’s been promising that the crime will happen, but it still hasn’t. He nevertheless told The Washington Post in late October that “there’s going to be serious crimes committed by people who are out of prison that would otherwise be in prison.”
Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) has staked out even more extreme "law and order" positions than President Donald Trump has. Bill Clark via Getty Images
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Hawley, by contrast, is a veteran of the War on Christmas. He is constantly on alert for any offense to America’s Christian majority from the “managerial front row of American society, the class of the faculty lounge and the C-suite,” as he described it in a July speech on the Senate floor, possibly forgetting that he is the product of Stanford and Yale and fancy law firms, and that he was an actual professor at the University of Missouri Law School.
Many Republican senators reacted negatively to the summer’s Black Lives Matter protests, but Hawley and Cotton went above and beyond, fully embracing the white identity politics at the core of Trumpism.
They spent last fall and winter praising pro-democracy protesters in Hong Kong and sharply criticizing the heavy-handed police response. Hawley even traveled there last October to literally stand in solidarity with the protesters fighting to save the island’s democracy from the Chinese Communist Party.
“They have used violent tactics to put down the protests ― tear gas and beatings and dye blasted at protesters,” Hawley said in a Senate floor speech after the trip. “I just have to say, having been there myself, having been to the streets, having seen the protesters, having met with them and talked with them, their courage and their bravery under pressure is really something to behold.”
Cotton also spoke out: “It would be a grave mistake of historic proportion ― surpassing the massacre of Tiananmen Square ― if Beijing were to impose martial law, occupy, or otherwise crack down on Hong Kong.”
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But in May, after Minneapolis police killed George Floyd and sparked a wave of Black Lives Matter marches, Hawley dismissed the overwhelmingly peaceful demonstrations as “increasingly violent riots and attacks and looting.” Black Lives Matter, perhaps the largest protest movement in U.S. history, decried not just police misconduct but also the systemic racism that pervades every aspect of Black life in America.
In many cities, police responded brutally, tear-gassing protesters and firing rubber bullets into crowds, creating a seemingly endless montage of government violence. Not only did Republican senators not care, when some jurisdictions decided to allow the protests instead of using escalatory suppression tactics, Hawley complained they oppressed Christians because of continued pandemic restrictions on large gatherings.
“State officials have violated the free speech and free exercise rights of religious Americans by treating religious gatherings and speech differently than the speech and mass gatherings of protests,” Hawley said in a June letter asking the Justice Department for a civil rights investigation.
He also spoke out against the military renaming bases that currently honor Confederate generals ― an initiative that gained steam because of the protests but that Hawley derided as “woke cancel culture … steamrolling our history.”
Cotton called for the federal government to suppress the protests as violently as possible.
“One thing above all else will restore order to our streets: an overwhelming show of force to disperse, detain and ultimately deter lawbreakers,” he wrote in an infamous New York Times op-ed in June.
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Trump, for his part, used federal law enforcement to gas and beat protesters near the White House so he could stage a photo shoot holding a Bible in front of a church: an overwhelming show of force and a tribute to oppressed Christians, all at once.
President Donald Trump stages his now-infamous photo-op in front of St. John's Church across from the White House on June 1 after federal officers violently dispersed peaceful protesters from the scene. BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI via Getty Images
Of course, nobody in politics is as corrupt, shameless and ignorant as Trump, and nobody in Congress has his weird celebrity charisma, which was vital to his victory in the 2016 Republican primary. Cotton is far more disciplined, often declining to speak to reporters and choosing his words with robotic precision when he does talk. Hawley exudes right-wing smarm.
In 2016, Trump campaigned as a different kind of Republican, one who wasn’t out to get Social Security or Medicare, who generally supported government intervention as long as it wasn’t “welfare.” It’s effective politics: People like when the government helps them, a fact that is strangely elusive to both Republicans and Democrats.
But Trump governed more like a typical Republican. In recent months he nominally supported extra unemployment benefits and direct payments to households as part of the response to the coronavirus pandemic, for example, but he didn’t support them enough to strike a deal with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), even though the economy is in horrible shape and a boost would have helped him win reelection.
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Hawley has sprinkled his public persona with economic populism, taking positions on trade and antitrust that are unusual for a Republican (except that they aligned with various Trump beefs of the past two years). In response to the pandemic, he proposed huge additional amounts of federal spending to subsidize literally every endangered job and to pay monthly benefits to families struggling during the pandemic. But his proposals weren’t much more than press releases; it was another Republican, Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, who actually worked with Democrats to create a payroll support program that temporarily saved millions of jobs over the summer.
By crushing jobs and businesses, the pandemic has crushed state budgets, since the missing business activity results in missing tax revenue. Budget gaps resulted in layoffs and furloughs, and as of September, state and local governments employed fewer workers than at any time during the Great Recession.
Despite his willingness to throw enormous amounts of money at private payrolls, Hawley repeated Trump’s line, writing off about half the country, when asked about a Democratic coronavirus relief bill that would plug state budget holes.
“If it includes blue-state bailout money, then I’d say that’s probably a hard no,” he said. The dismissal is a reminder that like almost every other Republican senator, he’s fond of tax cuts for the rich and in March voted against giving workers an extra $600 unemployment benefit if it amounted to more than their previous wage. The extra benefit was probably most populist thing Congress has done in years.
On Election Day, as the results trickled in and exit polls suggested Trump had made progress with minority voters and that he might even win the election, Hawley celebrated.
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thehuffingtonpost--2020-11-07--Donald Trump Never Wanted To Be President For All Americans

“ Now it ’ s time for America to bind the wounds of division — have to get together .
To all Republicans and Democrats and independents across this nation , I say it is time for us to come together as one united people , ” Trump said after his surprise win over Democrat Hillary Clinton .
From the moment he took office , however , Trump showed little interest in healing the country .
He actively stoked the flames of racial hatred and exploited the nation ’ s divisions for political gain , encouraging the rise of fringe @ @ @ @ @ @ @ through a Republican Party whose soul has changed in his image .
After Trump ’ s win in 2016 , Democrats initially held out hope about reaching agreement with someone who , at least during that campaign , bucked traditional GOP orthodoxy on some issues , such as infrastructure .
They recognized Trump had an opportunity to bring recalcitrant GOP lawmakers and their voters on board and prove himself to be the great “ deal-maker ” he repeatedly hyped himself up to be .
Instead , Trump governed like the president of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to traditionally GOP and battleground states that would help determine his reelection .
He whipped up his supporters into a frenzy with a torrent of grievances .
He shielded his allies from prosecution and jail time with pardons and commutations .
And he doled out hundreds of billions of dollars in aid to farmers in rural parts of the country ― once derided by conservatives as government bailouts ― in response to the trade war he started with China .
Blue states ― and their elected representatives ― got a different treatment .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ attacks and policies designed to punish their constituents .
He threatened to withhold federal funding from U.S. cities he deemed “ anarchist jurisdictions ” or so-called “ sanctuary cities.
” He relished taunting and brawling with top congressional Democrats , and then gave up speaking to them entirely .
Even largely performative Washington traditions went out the window .
For example , few if any elected Democrats received invites to official bill signing events at the White House ― even when the bills had broad bipartisan support in Congress .
The People ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ prop for Trump ’ s reelection in campaign ads and at the Republican National Convention in August .
If you were for Trump , he loved you .
If you disagreed with him , you were the enemy .
There was no middle ground ― and it applied to members of both parties .
Even when Trump enacted policies designed to help all Americans , he did it with an eye toward his reelection .
When Congress issued $ 1,200 checks to Americans suffering from the coronavirus pandemic earlier this year , he @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the checks , an obvious campaign ploy .
In September of this year , as polls showed him lagging behind Biden among voters over the age of 65 , Trump promised to send $ 200 discount cards to more than 30 million older Americans before the election to offset the costs of prescription drugs .
The blatant scheme , which would be funded directly by the Medicare trust fund , has yet to materialize .
His one truly bipartisan legislative accomplishment ― the First Step Act , a sweeping criminal justice reform measure @ @ @ @ @ @ @ negotiations between his son-in-law and adviser Jared Kushner and a group of bipartisan lawmakers in Congress who had long been pushing for it .
While Trump ’ s administration regularly touted the law as one of his biggest victories , the president himself didn ’ t appear sold on it because he thought it would harm his reelection , which emphasized a tough-on-crime message .
“ He ’ s really mad that he did it .
He ’ s saying that he ’ s furious at Jared because Jared is telling him he @ @ @ @ @ @ @ votes of all these felons , ” a person close to the president told Politico last year after the law passed .
Trump ’ s image problems are a big reason why he struggled against Biden in key voting blocs , including among women , minorities and older Americans .
In October , 66 % of U.S. adults viewed the former vice president as likable , while only 36 % said the same about Trump , according to a Gallup poll .
Americans were also more likely to perceive Biden as caring about @ @ @ @ @ @ @ opposed to Trump , with Biden edging the president among independent voters 55 % to 38 % .
“ I ’ m running as a proud Democrat , but I will govern as an American president for everybody , ” Biden said in Philadelphia .
“ I will work as hard for those who don ’ t support me as those who do support me .
I mean it .
That ’ s the job of a president .
The duty to care , the duty to care for everyone .
And in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will be no red states or blue states .
There will only be the United States of America .
”

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In his 2016 election night victory speech, Donald Trump pledged to be a president for all Americans, even those who did not support his bid for the White House.
“Now it’s time for America to bind the wounds of division — have to get together. To all Republicans and Democrats and independents across this nation, I say it is time for us to come together as one united people,” Trump said after his surprise win over Democrat Hillary Clinton.
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From the moment he took office, however, Trump showed little interest in healing the country. He actively stoked the flames of racial hatred and exploited the nation’s divisions for political gain, encouraging the rise of fringe elements and conspiracy theories that have proliferated through a Republican Party whose soul has changed in his image.
The country rejected that message this week, electing Democrat Joe Biden with the biggest popular vote of any candidate in history.
After Trump’s win in 2016, Democrats initially held out hope about reaching agreement with someone who, at least during that campaign, bucked traditional GOP orthodoxy on some issues, such as infrastructure. They recognized Trump had an opportunity to bring recalcitrant GOP lawmakers and their voters on board and prove himself to be the great “deal-maker” he repeatedly hyped himself up to be.
“He just wasn’t interested in that at all,” Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) told HuffPost of Trump’s willingness to reach bipartisan agreement. “It surprised me.”
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Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.) said he was disappointed in Trump’s failure to push through an infrastructure package, one of his biggest campaign promises.
“I thought he would use the opportunity to try to help rebuild the country,” Casey said.
Instead, Trump governed like the president of the red states of America, currying favor to traditionally GOP and battleground states that would help determine his reelection. He whipped up his supporters into a frenzy with a torrent of grievances. He shielded his allies from prosecution and jail time with pardons and commutations. And he doled out hundreds of billions of dollars in aid to farmers in rural parts of the country ― once derided by conservatives as government bailouts ― in response to the trade war he started with China.
Blue states ― and their elected representatives ― got a different treatment. He regularly demeaned and targeted them with attacks and policies designed to punish their constituents. He threatened to withhold federal funding from U.S. cities he deemed “anarchist jurisdictions” or so-called “sanctuary cities.” He relished taunting and brawling with top congressional Democrats, and then gave up speaking to them entirely.
Even largely performative Washington traditions went out the window. For example, few if any elected Democrats received invites to official bill signing events at the White House ― even when the bills had broad bipartisan support in Congress. The People’s House itself was turned into a prop for Trump’s reelection in campaign ads and at the Republican National Convention in August.
If you were for Trump, he loved you. If you disagreed with him, you were the enemy. There was no middle ground ― and it applied to members of both parties.
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Even when Trump enacted policies designed to help all Americans, he did it with an eye toward his reelection. When Congress issued $1,200 checks to Americans suffering from the coronavirus pandemic earlier this year, he demanded that his name be printed on the checks, an obvious campaign ploy.
In September of this year, as polls showed him lagging behind Biden among voters over the age of 65, Trump promised to send $200 discount cards to more than 30 million older Americans before the election to offset the costs of prescription drugs. The blatant scheme, which would be funded directly by the Medicare trust fund, has yet to materialize.
His one truly bipartisan legislative accomplishment ― the First Step Act, a sweeping criminal justice reform measure ― was more of a product of negotiations between his son-in-law and adviser Jared Kushner and a group of bipartisan lawmakers in Congress who had long been pushing for it. While Trump’s administration regularly touted the law as one of his biggest victories, the president himself didn’t appear sold on it because he thought it would harm his reelection, which emphasized a tough-on-crime message.
“He’s really mad that he did it. He’s saying that he’s furious at Jared because Jared is telling him he’s going to get all these votes of all these felons,” a person close to the president told Politico last year after the law passed.
Earlier this year, Trump sent federal police to interfere in matters within local officials’ jurisdictions. His Department of Justice also ended policies that were intended to reduce harsh criminal sentencing.
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Trump’s image problems are a big reason why he struggled against Biden in key voting blocs, including among women, minorities and older Americans. In October, 66% of U.S. adults viewed the former vice president as likable, while only 36% said the same about Trump, according to a Gallup poll. Americans were also more likely to perceive Biden as caring about the needs of people like them as opposed to Trump, with Biden edging the president among independent voters 55% to 38%.
Biden addressed Trump’s presidency directly in his closing message to voters at a campaign stop shortly before Election Day, repeating a line made famous by his former boss, Barack Obama.


thehuffingtonpost--2020-11-07--As Democrats Hail Joe Biden's Presidential Win, GOP Mostly Stays Quiet

Democrats greeted the news that Democrats Joe Biden and Kamala Harris will be the next president and vice president of the United States on Saturday with jubilation , congratulating them on their historic win over President Donald Trump immediately after television networks and The Associated Press projected the outcome of the 2020 election .
Republicans were more muted in the immediate aftermath of the calls .
While dozens of Democratic lawmakers and allied groups issued statements and weighed in on social media platforms like Twitter , most Republican elected officials stayed quiet as Trump continued to deny and dispute the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Everyone should want our president to succeed because we need our country to succeed .
We have great challenges ahead of us as a country .
Now more than ever , we need to come together as Americans .
— Governor Larry Hogan ( @ GovLarryHogan ) November 7 , 2020 “ Ann and I extend our congratulations to President-elect Joe Biden and Vice President-elect Kamala Harris .
We know both of them as people of good will and admirable character .
We pray that God may bless them in the days @ @ @ @ @ @ @ GOP presidential nominee tweeted .
Retiring Tennessee Sen. Lamar Alexander issued a more measured statement , saying it is “ important to respect and promptly accept the result ” of the election “ after counting every valid vote and allowing courts to resolve disputes.
” Trump ’ s campaign issued a statement from him on Saturday after the election calls saying that he didn ’ t accept that Biden has won the election .
He reiterated his baseless claims about voter fraud and pledged to start “ prosecuting our case ” in court @ @ @ @ @ @ @ election is far from over , ” Trump said in the statement .
The president was at his golf course in Virginia when the race was called for Biden .
The former vice president is just the fifth challenger to beat an incumbent president in the past 100 years .
“ I am honored and humbled by the trust the American people have placed in me and in Vice President-elect Harris .
In the face of unprecedented obstacles , a record number of Americans voted , ” Biden said in a statement after @ @ @ @ @

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Democrats greeted the news that Democrats Joe Biden and Kamala Harris will be the next president and vice president of the United States on Saturday with jubilation, congratulating them on their historic win over President Donald Trump immediately after television networks and The Associated Press projected the outcome of the 2020 election.
Republicans were more muted in the immediate aftermath of the calls.
While dozens of Democratic lawmakers and allied groups issued statements and weighed in on social media platforms like Twitter, most Republican elected officials stayed quiet as Trump continued to deny and dispute the election results.
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Republican Gov. Larry Hogan of Maryland, a frequent Trump critic, congratulated Biden on Twitter.
Congratulations to President-elect Biden. Everyone should want our president to succeed because we need our country to succeed. We have great challenges ahead of us as a country. Now more than ever, we need to come together as Americans. — Governor Larry Hogan (@GovLarryHogan) November 7, 2020
Utah Sen. Mitt Romney also offered his warm wishes to the Democratic ticket.
“Ann and I extend our congratulations to President-elect Joe Biden and Vice President-elect Kamala Harris. We know both of them as people of good will and admirable character. We pray that God may bless them in the days and years ahead,” the 2012 GOP presidential nominee tweeted.
Retiring Tennessee Sen. Lamar Alexander issued a more measured statement, saying it is “important to respect and promptly accept the result” of the election “after counting every valid vote and allowing courts to resolve disputes.”
Trump’s campaign issued a statement from him on Saturday after the election calls saying that he didn’t accept that Biden has won the election. He reiterated his baseless claims about voter fraud and pledged to start “prosecuting our case” in court.
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“The simple fact is this election is far from over,” Trump said in the statement.
The president was at his golf course in Virginia when the race was called for Biden.
The former vice president is just the fifth challenger to beat an incumbent president in the past 100 years.


thehuffingtonpost--2020-11-07--'I'm Irish': Footage Of Joe Biden Making Sure A BBC Reporter Knows His Roots Goes Viral

A BBC video clip of Joe Biden jokingly embracing his Irish roots went viral Saturday as news of the president-elect ’ s victory garnered cheers from Biden ’ s fanbase in both the U.S. and Ireland .
The clip was part of a BBC broadcast announcing Biden ’ s victory , which included a supercut of scenes from the campaign trail , from his earlier bids for president in 1987 and 2008 and from his tenure as vice president under Barack Obama .
“ Mr .
Biden , a quick word for the BBC , ” BBC ’ s New @ @ @ @ @ @ @ asking .
The exact date of the clip is unknown , but the lack of face masks suggested that it was archival footage .
Nevertheless , it quickly went viral on Twitter .
Irish voices praised the president-elect as “ relatable , ” and some speculated on what a Biden presidency would mean for U.S. relations with Ireland and the U.K. , which is in the throes of Brexit .
As Joe Biden walks through a crowd a reporter asks , `` Do you have a comment for the BBC Mr Biden ?
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ Biden , smiles then says , `` I 'm Irish '' before turning and walking away .
It 's going to be a very different presidency.
# Ireland 🇮🇪🇺🇲 pic.twitter.com/gopX9YMMEd — Dr Paul Monaghan ( @ _PaulMonaghan ) November 7 , 2020 Biden 's `` I 'm Irish '' quip , was a well considered 'shot across Johnsons bow ' .
The deceptive smile , was a dire warning to Johnson , do n't go there & do n't play with Ireland anymore .
These days are over ... .
!
— GreyPict @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2020 British politician and leader of the Brexit movement , Nigel Farage , was quick to weaponize the video for his own purposes .
Farage — a friend of president Donald Trump who supposedly placed a £10,000 bet on Trump remaining in the White House — insinuated that “ Biden hates the U.K. ” and that Britain ’ s Conservative Party would fail to accomplish much with Biden as the U.S. president .
As you can see from this clip , Biden hates the UK .
The Conservatives had 4 years to do @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pro-UK President , and they failed .
There is no chance now .
pic.twitter.com/LjOSS8saz5 — Nigel Farage ( @ Nigel_Farage ) November 7 , 2020 Ireland ’ s taoiseach ( prime minister ) , Micheál Martin , did not comment on the video , but he was among many world leaders who offered congratulations to both Biden and Vice President-elect Kamala Harris .
“ Joe Biden has been a true friend of this nation throughout his life , ” Martin said .
I want to congratulate the new President Elect of the USA @ @ @ @ @ @ @ true friend of this nation throughout his life and I look forward to working with him in the years ahead .
I also look forward to welcoming him back home when the circumstances allow !
🇮🇪 🇺🇸 — Micheál Martin ( @ MichealMartinTD ) November 7 , 2020 I also wish to congratulate Vice President Elect @ KamalaHarris and recognise the huge significance of her election for so many people .
Vice President Elect Harris & President Elect Biden will make a very formidable team .
— Micheál Martin ( @ MichealMartinTD ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Irish family roots can be traced back to Counties Louth , Derry and Mayo , and the president-elect has readily embraced his heritage in the past and fondly quoted the words of Irish poet Seamus Heaney during his Democratic Party nomination acceptance speech .
When news of Biden ’ s victory hit the town of Ballina — located in Ireland ’ s County Mayo and the hometown of the president-elect ’ s great-great-great-grandfather — revelers celebrated in the streets .

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A BBC video clip of Joe Biden jokingly embracing his Irish roots went viral Saturday as news of the president-elect’s victory garnered cheers from Biden’s fanbase in both the U.S. and Ireland.
The clip was part of a BBC broadcast announcing Biden’s victory, which included a supercut of scenes from the campaign trail, from his earlier bids for president in 1987 and 2008 and from his tenure as vice president under Barack Obama.
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“Mr. Biden, a quick word for the BBC,” BBC’s New York correspondent Nick Bryant can be heard asking.
“The BBC?” the president-elect said before responding with a smile: “I’m Irish.”
The exact date of the clip is unknown, but the lack of face masks suggested that it was archival footage.
Nevertheless, it quickly went viral on Twitter. Irish voices praised the president-elect as “relatable,” and some speculated on what a Biden presidency would mean for U.S. relations with Ireland and the U.K., which is in the throes of Brexit.
"A quick word for the BBC?"
"The BBC? I'm Irish." https://t.co/GtJ5It4KE0 — Nick Bryant (@NickBryantNY) November 7, 2020
“I’m Irish”. The 46th #POTUS just put a smile on the face of 7m people back in the ‘auld country’. Move over @NickBryantNY. Cue @BrianOD_News. #Election2020. https://t.co/FuwMwIcBLn — Jon Williams (@WilliamsJon) November 7, 2020
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Biden is literally me any time I’m abroad and someone asks where in the UK I’m from pic.twitter.com/ERceMwZMdt — Steven (@Steven_Armour) November 7, 2020
As Joe Biden walks through a crowd a reporter asks, "Do you have a comment for the BBC Mr Biden?"
"The BBC?" asks Biden, smiles then says, "I'm Irish" before turning and walking away.
It's going to be a very different presidency.#Ireland 🇮🇪🇺🇲 pic.twitter.com/gopX9YMMEd — Dr Paul Monaghan (@_PaulMonaghan) November 7, 2020
Biden's "I'm Irish" quip, was a well considered 'shot across Johnsons bow'.
The deceptive smile, was a dire warning to Johnson, don't go there & don't play with Ireland anymore.
These days are over....! — GreyPict (@GreyPict) November 7, 2020
British politician and leader of the Brexit movement, Nigel Farage, was quick to weaponize the video for his own purposes.
Farage — a friend of president Donald Trump who supposedly placed a £10,000 bet on Trump remaining in the White House — insinuated that “Biden hates the U.K.” and that Britain’s Conservative Party would fail to accomplish much with Biden as the U.S. president.
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As you can see from this clip, Biden hates the UK.
The Conservatives had 4 years to do a trade deal with the USA and pro-UK President, and they failed.
There is no chance now.
pic.twitter.com/LjOSS8saz5 — Nigel Farage (@Nigel_Farage) November 7, 2020
Ireland’s taoiseach (prime minister), Micheál Martin, did not comment on the video, but he was among many world leaders who offered congratulations to both Biden and Vice President-elect Kamala Harris. “Joe Biden has been a true friend of this nation throughout his life,” Martin said.
I want to congratulate the new President Elect of the USA @JoeBiden Joe Biden has been a true friend of this nation throughout his life and I look forward to working with him in the years ahead. I also look forward to welcoming him back home when the circumstances allow! 🇮🇪 🇺🇸 — Micheál Martin (@MichealMartinTD) November 7, 2020
I also wish to congratulate Vice President Elect @KamalaHarris and recognise the huge significance of her election for so many people. Vice President Elect Harris & President Elect Biden will make a very formidable team. — Micheál Martin (@MichealMartinTD) November 7, 2020
Biden’s Irish family roots can be traced back to Counties Louth, Derry and Mayo, and the president-elect has readily embraced his heritage in the past and fondly quoted the words of Irish poet Seamus Heaney during his Democratic Party nomination acceptance speech.
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When news of Biden’s victory hit the town of Ballina — located in Ireland’s County Mayo and the hometown of the president-elect’s great-great-great-grandfather — revelers celebrated in the streets.


thehuffingtonpost--2020-11-07--Joe Biden Ran On Character. That's Not Going To Fix What's Broken With America.

Brian Snyder / Reuters Trump ’ s removal alone will not solve the nation ’ s troubles .
It will not even prevent them from deepening over the next few months .
That victory is , first and foremost , a relief .
The campaign of destruction that President Donald Trump has waged against democracy and decency will , in fact , end .
Whatever the future may hold ― and there are good reasons to believe it will be bleak ― at least this particular nihilist will no longer have his hands on the levers of administrative power .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ not solve the nation ’ s troubles .
It will not even prevent them from deepening over the next few months .
Biden will likely enter office with the economy in deep recession as an uncontrolled pandemic rages .
What was once bemoaned as bitter partisanship has metastasized into an at-times murderous cultural animosity .
Trump has bequeathed his successor a country in which many Americans on different sides of the political divide not only dislike each other , but take active pleasure in their mutual estrangement .
Make no mistake .
Despite @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ticket , the election results are a deep disappointment to the Democratic Party .
No one now living has faced a more favorable electoral environment than Biden did this year .
Trump ’ s botched pandemic response has resulted in a death toll of 235,000 and counting .
The economy is in shambles , with more than 750,000 people losing their jobs every week .
Trump himself remains unpopular , with an approval rating that has never passed 45 % over his entire tenure in office , after losing the popular vote by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ map offered as many as 10 bona fide pickup opportunities to Democrats , who will now consider themselves fortunate to emerge from the final vote tally with the seats needed to take control of the upper chamber .
They lost seats in the House .
But it would be an error to interpret these mixed results as a mandate for the status quo and the joys of divided government .
They show , instead , the dangers of political campaigns focused on the lives of politicians rather than on the people they hope @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Donald Trump , but they could not see themselves in Biden , because he refused , again and again , to tell them what he would actually do to improve their lives .
Biden secured his primary victory not with big ideas but with the repeated insistence that he alone was the safest bet to defeat Trump in November .
In the general election , he burdened himself with only two serious campaign promises : to “ heal ” the country and to listen to scientists about how to fight COVID-19 .
What @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the most part left unspoken .
By running on character rather than a clear agenda , Biden hoped to unite everyone repulsed by Trump without alienating them from one another .
Under Biden ’ s banner are torture apologists from the George W. Bush administration , young socialists from the Bernie Sanders campaign , aging Republicans horrified by Trump ’ s pandemic malpractice , and old hands from the Clinton administration eager to revive the era of free trade and balanced budgets .
The single shared goal that stitched this coalition together ― @ @ @ @ @ @ @ now been accomplished .
What remains for many of these supporters is a nebulous and malleable desire to simply escape a season of political intensity .
But it is clear Biden can not heal the country by retreating from conflict .
His opposition , a Republican Party that now rejects democracy itself as a guiding principle , will do everything in its power to prevent him from addressing any of the fears and frustrations currently facing the country .
Even the most modest of governing goals ― ending the pandemic and the recession @ @ @ @ @ @ @ public action and substantive reforms to both government and our dysfunctional economic order .
If Republicans and Democrats are to get along in Washington , Democrats will have to abandon serious problem-solving for the rest of the country .
And bad as the country ’ s economic problems are now , they are about to get much worse .
Many of the government programs that mitigated the crisis came with expiration dates that are now on the horizon .
A federal eviction moratorium will expire on Dec. 31 .
Several states that have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ water or electricity to households behind on their bills are allowing these protections to sunset .
Absent a new agreement from Congress and with a lame-duck Trump , the federal government itself will shut down on Dec. 11 .
Holiday travel is understandably down , outdoor activities are disappearing with cold weather , and the failure to pass a stimulus package before the election has left households all over the country with tight budgets .
State and local governments , which employ roughly 16 million people , face devastating budget shortfalls from the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the new year .
The experience of the Obama administration reveals the shortcomings of such a strategy .
As Obama careened from deadline to shutdown , he often succeeded in preventing the worst , and the public did , with a few notable exceptions , typically blame Republicans for whatever specific mess the government found itself in .
The sum of these victories , however , was pyrrhic .
They did not arrest the acceleration of economic inequality or its political corollaries , the rise of authoritarianism and political apathy .
Some @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
He believed Republicans would come to the table when they wouldn ’ t , offered up overly generous compromises , and , perhaps most importantly , undershot the scope of relief required in the 2009 stimulus package .
But the administration also suffered from a genuine failure of vision .
The most famous dictums from the Obama team ― “ don ’ t do stupid shit , ” “ hard things are hard , ” “ plan beats no plan ” ― are about avoiding mistakes and acknowledging limitations .
They are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ weak victory may not leave Biden with a choice about whether to change the world .
Without a Senate majority , all talk of meaningful policymaking will be moot for at least two years .
But if Biden does have the power to act , he will need to take bold action on the economy as swiftly as possible .
There are few indications that Democratic leaders recognize the imperative .
The most popular theme at the Democratic National Convention in August was the idea of finally being able to relax and get @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” politics .
“ These are not normal times , ” bemoaned former Ohio Gov .
John Kasich , a Republican .
“ This is not normal , ” agreed Sen. Bernie Sanders ( I-Vt. ) .
“ It ’ s not a normal time , ” Obama said , before vice presidential nominee Kamala Harris concluded that the nation was “ grieving , ” among other things , “ the loss of normalcy , ” and Julia Louis-Dreyfus predicted Biden would “ restore dignity and normalcy to the White House.
” The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in this election , according to exit polls , was not normalcy , but the economy .
The economy is a complicated idea for most people ― it ’ s about paychecks and utility bills , but also about fairness and inequality .
When people say they are unhappy with the economy , nearly all of them mean they want to make more money .
But many are also expressing frustration with a social order that increasingly concentrates private power in unaccountable hands as it delivers too many fruits of society ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ years from now , voters will still care about the economy .
And if they don ’ t like it , the White House incumbent to absorb that blame will be a Democrat .
The Republican alternative will likely share many of Trump ’ s worst qualities and be less burdened by Trump ’ s obvious incompetence .
To thwart the rise of the next Trumpian demagogue , Biden and the Democratic Party must overhaul the system that created and sustained Trump the business magnate .
In the closing weeks of his campaign @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the legacy of Franklin Delano Roosevelt ― a leader who came to office during an era of crisis and met the moment by reformulating the very nature of American government .
Roosevelt made mistakes , but he recognized that continuing the status quo of 1932 would bring the end of American democracy .
He brought to government an energy and ambition that Biden must now embrace if we can hope to avoid an authoritarian future in the 21st century .

The results, at last, seem clear. After several emotionally wrenching days of vote-tallying across the country, Joe Biden has won the 2020 presidential election.
That victory is, first and foremost, a relief. The campaign of destruction that President Donald Trump has waged against democracy and decency will, in fact, end. Whatever the future may hold ― and there are good reasons to believe it will be bleak ― at least this particular nihilist will no longer have his hands on the levers of administrative power.
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But Trump’s removal alone will not solve the nation’s troubles. It will not even prevent them from deepening over the next few months. Biden will likely enter office with the economy in deep recession as an uncontrolled pandemic rages. What was once bemoaned as bitter partisanship has metastasized into an at-times murderous cultural animosity. Trump has bequeathed his successor a country in which many Americans on different sides of the political divide not only dislike each other, but take active pleasure in their mutual estrangement.
Make no mistake. Despite the win at the top of the ticket, the election results are a deep disappointment to the Democratic Party. No one now living has faced a more favorable electoral environment than Biden did this year. Trump’s botched pandemic response has resulted in a death toll of 235,000 and counting. The economy is in shambles, with more than 750,000 people losing their jobs every week. Trump himself remains unpopular, with an approval rating that has never passed 45% over his entire tenure in office, after losing the popular vote by 3 million in 2016. The Senate map offered as many as 10 bona fide pickup opportunities to Democrats, who will now consider themselves fortunate to emerge from the final vote tally with the seats needed to take control of the upper chamber. They lost seats in the House.
But it would be an error to interpret these mixed results as a mandate for the status quo and the joys of divided government. They show, instead, the dangers of political campaigns focused on the lives of politicians rather than on the people they hope to represent. Voters did not like Donald Trump, but they could not see themselves in Biden, because he refused, again and again, to tell them what he would actually do to improve their lives.
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Biden secured his primary victory not with big ideas but with the repeated insistence that he alone was the safest bet to defeat Trump in November. In the general election, he burdened himself with only two serious campaign promises: to “heal” the country and to listen to scientists about how to fight COVID-19. What, exactly, those meant was for the most part left unspoken.
There were policy items to be found in the corners of Biden’s website or discussed, occasionally, during debates. But the single, core message Biden and the Democratic Party sought to drive home was that Trump was the wrong kind of man for the job.
“Character is on the ballot,” Biden told his convention audience in August. “Compassion is on the ballot. Decency, science, democracy ― they are all on the ballot. Who we are as a nation. What we stand for. And, most importantly, who we want to be ― that’s all on the ballot.”
By running on character rather than a clear agenda, Biden hoped to unite everyone repulsed by Trump without alienating them from one another. Under Biden’s banner are torture apologists from the George W. Bush administration, young socialists from the Bernie Sanders campaign, aging Republicans horrified by Trump’s pandemic malpractice, and old hands from the Clinton administration eager to revive the era of free trade and balanced budgets. The single shared goal that stitched this coalition together ― the defeat of Donald Trump ― has now been accomplished. What remains for many of these supporters is a nebulous and malleable desire to simply escape a season of political intensity.
But it is clear Biden cannot heal the country by retreating from conflict. His opposition, a Republican Party that now rejects democracy itself as a guiding principle, will do everything in its power to prevent him from addressing any of the fears and frustrations currently facing the country. Even the most modest of governing goals ― ending the pandemic and the recession ― cannot be achieved without assertive public action and substantive reforms to both government and our dysfunctional economic order. If Republicans and Democrats are to get along in Washington, Democrats will have to abandon serious problem-solving for the rest of the country.
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“To thwart the rise of the next Trumpian demagogue, Biden and the Democratic Party must overhaul the system that created and sustained Trump the business magnate.”
And bad as the country’s economic problems are now, they are about to get much worse. Many of the government programs that mitigated the crisis came with expiration dates that are now on the horizon. A federal eviction moratorium will expire on Dec. 31. Several states that have mandated the continued supply of heat, water or electricity to households behind on their bills are allowing these protections to sunset. Absent a new agreement from Congress and with a lame-duck Trump, the federal government itself will shut down on Dec. 11. Holiday travel is understandably down, outdoor activities are disappearing with cold weather, and the failure to pass a stimulus package before the election has left households all over the country with tight budgets. State and local governments, which employ roughly 16 million people, face devastating budget shortfalls from the pandemic that will bring millions of layoffs in the new year.
An unfortunate truism about our nation’s capital is that the higher the stakes are in American life, the smaller the thinking will be in Washington. With a cascade of crises on the horizon, there will be enormous pressure from cuff-linked power brokers for Biden to notch small victories and move on to containing the next foreseeable disaster.
The experience of the Obama administration reveals the shortcomings of such a strategy. As Obama careened from deadline to shutdown, he often succeeded in preventing the worst, and the public did, with a few notable exceptions, typically blame Republicans for whatever specific mess the government found itself in. The sum of these victories, however, was pyrrhic. They did not arrest the acceleration of economic inequality or its political corollaries, the rise of authoritarianism and political apathy.
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Some of Obama’s mistakes were tactical. He believed Republicans would come to the table when they wouldn’t, offered up overly generous compromises, and, perhaps most importantly, undershot the scope of relief required in the 2009 stimulus package. But the administration also suffered from a genuine failure of vision. The most famous dictums from the Obama team ― “don’t do stupid shit,” “hard things are hard,” “plan beats no plan” ― are about avoiding mistakes and acknowledging limitations. They are not about changing the world.
A weak victory may not leave Biden with a choice about whether to change the world. Without a Senate majority, all talk of meaningful policymaking will be moot for at least two years. But if Biden does have the power to act, he will need to take bold action on the economy as swiftly as possible.
There are few indications that Democratic leaders recognize the imperative. The most popular theme at the Democratic National Convention in August was the idea of finally being able to relax and get back to a vaguely defined “normal” politics. “These are not normal times,” bemoaned former Ohio Gov. John Kasich, a Republican. “This is not normal,” agreed Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.). “It’s not a normal time,” Obama said, before vice presidential nominee Kamala Harris concluded that the nation was “grieving,” among other things, “the loss of normalcy,” and Julia Louis-Dreyfus predicted Biden would “restore dignity and normalcy to the White House.”
The top issue for voters across all demographics in this election, according to exit polls, was not normalcy, but the economy. The economy is a complicated idea for most people ― it’s about paychecks and utility bills, but also about fairness and inequality. When people say they are unhappy with the economy, nearly all of them mean they want to make more money. But many are also expressing frustration with a social order that increasingly concentrates private power in unaccountable hands as it delivers too many fruits of society’s labors to an irresponsible elite.
Four years from now, voters will still care about the economy. And if they don’t like it, the White House incumbent to absorb that blame will be a Democrat. The Republican alternative will likely share many of Trump’s worst qualities and be less burdened by Trump’s obvious incompetence. To thwart the rise of the next Trumpian demagogue, Biden and the Democratic Party must overhaul the system that created and sustained Trump the business magnate.
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In the closing weeks of his campaign, Biden tied his prospective administration to the legacy of Franklin Delano Roosevelt ― a leader who came to office during an era of crisis and met the moment by reformulating the very nature of American government. Roosevelt made mistakes, but he recognized that continuing the status quo of 1932 would bring the end of American democracy. He brought to government an energy and ambition that Biden must now embrace if we can hope to avoid an authoritarian future in the 21st century.
The country cannot afford for him to fail.


thehuffingtonpost--2020-11-07--GA Poll Worker In Hiding After False Fraud Claims Surface Online

Among the most widely shared examples is a video that has racked up millions of views on Twitter .
It claims to show a poll worker crumpling up an absentee ballot .
As it turns out , it shows no such thing .
Richard Barron , the Fulton County elections director , said late Friday that the poll worker seen in the video was discarding paper instructions , not a ballot , which would have been much larger than the paper seen in the video .
“ It ’ s been questioned whether the poll worker featured in the video @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The answer is no , undeniably no , ” Barron told reporters at a Friday evening news conference at the Fulton County elections warehouse in Atlanta .
“ At no time was the poll worker able to extract a ballot.
” The widely shared video shows Fulton County poll workers processing absentee ballots at Atlanta ’ s State Farm Arena on Nov. 3 .
The poll worker appears to gesture in an animated way , and then crumple up a small piece of paper .
It appears that someone took a video of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the arena and added narration from a male voice .
It is not clear who shot the original footage that the tweeted video was based on .
“ He has a fit about something .
And then flips off a ballot , and then crumples it up , ” the narrator says .
“ If that is not voter fraud I don ’ t know what is.
” David Shafer , the chairman of Georgia ’ s Republican Party , retweeted the video and wrote , “ Lawyers for the Georgia Republican @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Board of Elections investigate and explain what is happening in this video.
” Barron said his review of the incident determined there was no way the poll worker in the video could have discarded a ballot .
The poll worker ’ s assignment was to use a cutting machine to open the outer envelopes and separate them from interior envelopes .
“ At no time was the worker able to extract the ballot , ” reads a statement from Fulton County .
“ Ballot extraction only occurs with workers assigned to sorting duties.
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ of paper seen in the video is too small to be a ballot , which would have measured 8.5 by 19 inches .
Instead , Barron said it appeared the worker was discarding the list of instructions voters receive in their mailed ballots , which are 8 by 5 inches .
“ Due to the difference in sizes , it is clear that no ballot was damaged or discarded , ” the statement reads .
On the question of why the worker appeared agitated in the video , the statement says he had @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to a machine malfunction .
Barron told reporters that the worker was staying with friends because he no longer felt safe at home after social media users harassed him and released his personal information .
“ He was one of the workers that we had who trained everyone how to use those cutting machines because he was very good at it , and he was the fastest one , ” Barron told reporters .
“ I expressed my sorrow that all of this has happened to him for wanting to be an election @ @ @ @ @ @ @ job during that .
”

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ATLANTA (AP) — With all eyes on Georgia’s razor-thin presidential vote margin, falsehoods are swirling on social media about supposed ballot counting irregularities there.
Among the most widely shared examples is a video that has racked up millions of views on Twitter. It claims to show a poll worker crumpling up an absentee ballot.
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As it turns out, it shows no such thing. Richard Barron, the Fulton County elections director, said late Friday that the poll worker seen in the video was discarding paper instructions, not a ballot, which would have been much larger than the paper seen in the video.
Barron also said the worker was in hiding after being harassed online due to the false claims.
Here’s a look at the facts:
CLAIM: A video showing the ballot count in Fulton County, Georgia, shows fraud because a poll worker processing absentee ballots crumples one up.
THE FACTS: Election officials say the poll worker in the video did not crumple or discard a ballot.
“It’s been questioned whether the poll worker featured in the video was discarding one of those ballots. The answer is no, undeniably no,” Barron told reporters at a Friday evening news conference at the Fulton County elections warehouse in Atlanta. “At no time was the poll worker able to extract a ballot.”
The widely shared video shows Fulton County poll workers processing absentee ballots at Atlanta’s State Farm Arena on Nov. 3. The poll worker appears to gesture in an animated way, and then crumple up a small piece of paper.
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It appears that someone took a video of a video that someone else had recorded in the arena and added narration from a male voice. It is not clear who shot the original footage that the tweeted video was based on.
“He has a fit about something. And then flips off a ballot, and then crumples it up,” the narrator says. “If that is not voter fraud I don’t know what is.”
David Shafer, the chairman of Georgia’s Republican Party, retweeted the video and wrote, “Lawyers for the Georgia Republican Party have demanded that the Fulton County Board of Elections investigate and explain what is happening in this video.”
Barron said his review of the incident determined there was no way the poll worker in the video could have discarded a ballot.
The poll worker’s assignment was to use a cutting machine to open the outer envelopes and separate them from interior envelopes. “At no time was the worker able to extract the ballot,” reads a statement from Fulton County. “Ballot extraction only occurs with workers assigned to sorting duties.”
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The statement explains that the piece of paper seen in the video is too small to be a ballot, which would have measured 8.5 by 19 inches.
Instead, Barron said it appeared the worker was discarding the list of instructions voters receive in their mailed ballots, which are 8 by 5 inches. “Due to the difference in sizes, it is clear that no ballot was damaged or discarded,” the statement reads.
On the question of why the worker appeared agitated in the video, the statement says he had explained his fingers were slightly injured due to a machine malfunction.
Barron told reporters that the worker was staying with friends because he no longer felt safe at home after social media users harassed him and released his personal information.
“He was one of the workers that we had who trained everyone how to use those cutting machines because he was very good at it, and he was the fastest one,” Barron told reporters.
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“I expressed my sorrow that all of this has happened to him for wanting to be an election worker and doing nothing but a good job during that.”
___


thehuffingtonpost--2020-11-07--Polls Underestimated Trump Again. Here's What We Know So Far.

It ’ s still too early to know the exact size of the error .
Once all the votes are counted , polls may be off by only several points nationally .
That would be a far cry from an unusual occurrence : In the years between 1972 and 2016 , national polls of the presidential race have missed by an average of about 4 percentage points .
But it ’ s clear that polling in multiple states this year again overestimated presidential rival Joe Biden ’ s lead , as well as Democrats ’ chances in House and Senate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ run in the same direction as they did in 2016 , when polls suggested Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton had an edge in Michigan , Pennsylvania and Wisconsin .
That ’ s especially concerning given that several of the accepted contributing causes to the 2016 error ― a large number of late-deciding voters , a lack of late state polling to catch that movement and the failure of some surveys to balance the educational level of their samples ― don ’ t appear to be at play this time to the same extent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ appears to have occurred broadly ( though not universally ) across different categories of surveys , including both those conducted by phone and online , both public and many private polls .
“ The issue is how the polls collectively performed in describing the official results of the 2020 election , ” the American Association for Public Opinion Research , an organization for survey researchers , said in a statement Thursday .
“ It will take weeks for election officials to carefully count all early , absentee , in-person and provisional ballots .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ make sweeping judgments on the polls ’ overall performance before all the ballots are counted .
Patience is necessary.
” ( Full disclosure : The author of this story is a member of AAPOR and is serving on a task force to review the performance of this year ’ s polling . )
It ’ s also still far too early to pinpoint causes for the error or even to say definitively how much of it stems from underlying problems not fixed after 2016 versus a different set of causes .
The outcome @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that polls are missing a subset of “ shy Trump voters.
” The most specific iteration of that theory ― that a vote for Trump is considered socially undesirable , so some of his supporters will lie to pollsters about it ― still doesn ’ t seem to square entirely with what we know about the results .
Trump was hardly alone in outperforming his poll numbers .
Other GOP politicians , such as Sen. Susan Collins in Maine , presumably few analysts ’ idea of an unusually controversial candidate , did so @ @ @ @ @ @ @ serious cause for concern .
Despite public perceptions to the contrary , the accuracy of both election polling and non-election telephone polling has remained relatively stable over the past few decades , even as response rates to those polls have plunged .
Once responses were weighted on key demographic categories , those who did answer resembled those who didn ’ t sufficiently enough to compensate ( with a few exceptions , including ― perhaps notably ― levels of civic and social engagement ) .
If that fragile balance has been disrupted , pollsters @ @ @ @ @ @ @ do to find out if there ’ s any way to compensate .
There are other possibilities , too .
This year ’ s coronavirus pandemic reshaped the way the nation voted , with unprecedented numbers voting early or by absentee mail .
It also introduced a newfound partisan divide in voting methods , with Democrats far likelier to vote by mail .
These shifts may have made it more difficult for pollsters to correctly gauge turnout ― a problem that could resemble a reversal of 2012 , when turnout models underestimated Barack @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of this election cycle are likely to raise fresh questions about how the media should report on horserace polling and the predictions based on those polls .
In 2018 , for instance , The Associated Press announced new guidelines that “ poll results that seek to preview the outcome of an election must never be the lead , headline or single subject of any story.
” In announcing its decision , the news service cited the results of the 2016 election as a reminder that polls are “ unquestionably a piece of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” Not all polls , though , are election polls .
One immediate question about this year ’ s miss is its implication for other kinds of public opinion polls , such as those designed to suss out Americans ’ beliefs and behavior on issues from anti-racism protests to the coronavirus pandemic .
As we wrote in 2017 : “ While horse-race surveys may command the bulk of attention , polls that gauge the national mood on issues of policy serve at least as important a role in the democratic process .
Writing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ potentially leave much of the nation voiceless in the years between elections.
” These types of polls have a few significant things working to their advantage .
Unlike election polls , they don ’ t have to worry about turnout modeling .
Instead of trying to define a population ― the group of people who ’ ll end up voting in a specific election ― that doesn ’ t yet exist , they can instead rely on benchmarks like census data .
And polling errors that would loom large in the context of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ consequential when it comes to interpreting public opinion .
Differences of 2 percentage points in election surveys can change the outcome , but a 2-point difference in opinion on an issue isn ’ t usually as substantial , especially if such results are correctly characterized as estimates .
Still , if some or all of this year ’ s election error is caused by missing or misinterpreting the voices of specific blocs of the public ― and if the relative accuracy of the national-level results comes in part from averaging out biases in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sign for non-election polls ’ ability to fully capture public sentiment .

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Polling on the 2020 presidential election once again appears to have substantially underestimated President Donald Trump and other Republicans’ performance in key states, delivering another body blow to public trust in an industry still bearing the bruises of Trump’s unexpected 2016 victory.
It’s still too early to know the exact size of the error. Once all the votes are counted, polls may be off by only several points nationally. That would be a far cry from an unusual occurrence: In the years between 1972 and 2016, national polls of the presidential race have missed by an average of about 4 percentage points. But it’s clear that polling in multiple states this year again overestimated presidential rival Joe Biden’s lead, as well as Democrats’ chances in House and Senate races.
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Those state errors appear to run in the same direction as they did in 2016, when polls suggested Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton had an edge in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. That’s especially concerning given that several of the accepted contributing causes to the 2016 error ― a large number of late-deciding voters, a lack of late state polling to catch that movement and the failure of some surveys to balance the educational level of their samples ― don’t appear to be at play this time to the same extent. Additionally, the error this year appears to have occurred broadly (though not universally) across different categories of surveys, including both those conducted by phone and online, both public and many private polls.
In Wisconsin, for instance, where Biden eked out a tight win, final polls showed Biden up by an average of roughly 7 or 8 points. In Texas, averages showed a tight race with Trump less than 2 points ahead, well below his actual margin of victory.
That’s been enough for critics to declare election polls useless or catastrophically broken, even as industry practitioners urge patience.
“The issue is how the polls collectively performed in describing the official results of the 2020 election,” the American Association for Public Opinion Research, an organization for survey researchers, said in a statement Thursday. “It will take weeks for election officials to carefully count all early, absentee, in-person and provisional ballots. As such, it is premature to make sweeping judgments on the polls’ overall performance before all the ballots are counted. Patience is necessary.” (Full disclosure: The author of this story is a member of AAPOR and is serving on a task force to review the performance of this year’s polling.)
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It’s also still far too early to pinpoint causes for the error or even to say definitively how much of it stems from underlying problems not fixed after 2016 versus a different set of causes. The outcome is certainly likely to stoke the theory that polls are missing a subset of “shy Trump voters.” The most specific iteration of that theory ― that a vote for Trump is considered socially undesirable, so some of his supporters will lie to pollsters about it ― still doesn’t seem to square entirely with what we know about the results. Trump was hardly alone in outperforming his poll numbers. Other GOP politicians, such as Sen. Susan Collins in Maine, presumably few analysts’ idea of an unusually controversial candidate, did so, too.
“The continuing and growing problem of nonresponse is something that we have to look at quite closely.” - Don Levy, director of the Siena College Research Institute
But a related idea stands out: nonresponse bias, in which certain groups simply don’t answer the phone, in a way that’s not corrected by weighting on demographics characteristics including age and educational level. Under one theory, polls are specifically missing a group of “low social trust” voters who have little faith in the country’s civic institutions and who break heavily toward the GOP.
This would be a serious cause for concern. Despite public perceptions to the contrary, the accuracy of both election polling and non-election telephone polling has remained relatively stable over the past few decades, even as response rates to those polls have plunged. Once responses were weighted on key demographic categories, those who did answer resembled those who didn’t sufficiently enough to compensate (with a few exceptions, including ― perhaps notably ― levels of civic and social engagement). If that fragile balance has been disrupted, pollsters will have a lot of work to do to find out if there’s any way to compensate.
“The continuing and growing problem of nonresponse is something that we have to look at quite closely,” Don Levy, the director of the Siena College Research Institute, told Politico.
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There are other possibilities, too. This year’s coronavirus pandemic reshaped the way the nation voted, with unprecedented numbers voting early or by absentee mail. It also introduced a newfound partisan divide in voting methods, with Democrats far likelier to vote by mail. These shifts may have made it more difficult for pollsters to correctly gauge turnout ― a problem that could resemble a reversal of 2012, when turnout models underestimated Barack Obama’s support.
“Outside of a few historically vote-by-mail states, pollsters do not have any experience modeling the vote in this type of election,” Courtney Kennedy, Pew Research Center’s director of survey research, told USA Today. “The number of unknowns this year are greater than in any election in recent memory.”
The results of this election cycle are likely to raise fresh questions about how the media should report on horserace polling and the predictions based on those polls. In 2018, for instance, The Associated Press announced new guidelines that “poll results that seek to preview the outcome of an election must never be the lead, headline or single subject of any story.” In announcing its decision, the news service cited the results of the 2016 election as a reminder that polls are “unquestionably a piece of the story, but never the whole story.”
Beyond the issue of data quality, the aftermath of the 2020 election also suggests there remains an ongoing issue of communication about the uncertainty levels inherent in election polls, something many pollsters, polling analysts and forecasters have attempted to stress over the past four years.
“Could this happen again?” Mark Blumenthal, a pollster and former HuffPost editor who helped to analyze the 2016 polling miss, said a year later. “Hopefully, if it happens again, we will all do a better job warning everyone that it’s possible.”
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Not all polls, though, are election polls. One immediate question about this year’s miss is its implication for other kinds of public opinion polls, such as those designed to suss out Americans’ beliefs and behavior on issues from anti-racism protests to the coronavirus pandemic. As we wrote in 2017: “While horse-race surveys may command the bulk of attention, polls that gauge the national mood on issues of policy serve at least as important a role in the democratic process. Writing off their results as intrinsically unreliable would potentially leave much of the nation voiceless in the years between elections.”
These types of polls have a few significant things working to their advantage. Unlike election polls, they don’t have to worry about turnout modeling. Instead of trying to define a population ― the group of people who’ll end up voting in a specific election ― that doesn’t yet exist, they can instead rely on benchmarks like census data. And polling errors that would loom large in the context of a closely fought election may be less consequential when it comes to interpreting public opinion. Differences of 2 percentage points in election surveys can change the outcome, but a 2-point difference in opinion on an issue isn’t usually as substantial, especially if such results are correctly characterized as estimates.
Still, if some or all of this year’s election error is caused by missing or misinterpreting the voices of specific blocs of the public ― and if the relative accuracy of the national-level results comes in part from averaging out biases in opposing directions ― that presents a troubling sign for non-election polls’ ability to fully capture public sentiment.
“Stop treating pollsters as oracles and treat polls as imperfect estimates of public attitudes,” political scientist Rich Clark, who has worked as a pollster in Vermont, tweeted on Wednesday. “In a democracy, measuring public attitudes is important, and, unfortunately, polls are still the best means for doing so.”
Onypix via Getty Images