thedenverpost--2020-12-20--From restaurants to retailers, COVID-19 transformed economies

NEW YORK — It would be just a temporary precaution .
When the viral pandemic erupted in March , employees of the small insurance firm Thimble fled their Manhattan offices .
CEO Jay Bregman planned to call them back soon — as soon as New York was safe again .
Within weeks , he ’ d changed his mind .
Bregman broke his company ’ s lease and told his two dozen or so staffers they could keep working from home — possibly for good .
The gains were at once unexpected and immediate .
Bregman is saving money on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ persuade recruits to relocate to a crushingly expensive city .
He ’ s increased his staff by 20 % and for the first time added new hires in Texas and California .
“ I was very skeptical at first that we could conduct business this way for a long time , ” Bregman said .
But having employees work from home proved a “ huge benefit ” for everyone .
Like no other event in memory , the pandemic has upended economies in the United States and across the world — transforming how @ @ @ @ @ @ @ shop and congregate .
It has changed how students are educated , how people communicate , how households are entertained and which industries , geographic areas and categories of people will thrive and which will suffer .
It has widened a gap between educated and affluent people who can work from home and the less fortunate — people in lower-income households without college educations or high skills who depend solely on wages rather than stock or home equity gains — who now stand to be left further behind .
And it ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ jobs for lack of child care .
The economy shed a shocking 22 million jobs after the pandemic struck .
Many employers have since recalled some of their furloughed workers .
Yet the recovery has slowed .
Not until the end of 2023 does Moody ’ s Analytics foresee the U.S. economy regaining its pre-pandemic employment level .
In the most bruised sectors — hotels , for example , and retail — changing economic habits mean that employers may never need as many workers as they did before the pandemic .
Even after @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have restored their health and jobless people have found work again , the economic landscape will almost surely look different .
Among the many life-altering consequences of the year 2020 , the coronavirus reshaped how people and businesses engage economically .
At the very least , the crisis accelerated trends that were already well underway : A shift away from physical stores toward e-commerce .
The flexibility of working from home .
The streaming of movies rather than theater-going .
Frequent meal deliveries .
Video-conferencing replacing much business travel .
“ We ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ economy , ’ Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell told a European Central Bank forum last month “ We ’ re recovering , but to a different economy.
’ Businesses are rewriting their business plans to keep up .
Warner Bros Pictures announced this month that all its 2021 movies , including a new “ Matrix ’ movie and “ Godzilla vs. King Kong , ” will stream on HBO Max at the same time that they appear in theaters — a seismic shift for Hollywood .
Restaurants are testing delivery-only “ ghost kitchens @ @ @ @ @ @ @ wary of crowded dining rooms .
Even so , economists say it ’ s far from certain which of the myriad changes will prove permanent and which may fade as people who ’ ve been holed up at home for months return to their pre-pandemic routines .
Will white-collar workers yearn for their old cubicles and face-to-face contact with friends and colleagues ?
Will foodies return to fashionable restaurants , young people to the hottest bars ?
Will audiences once again gather , elbow to elbow , for symphonies , Hollywood blockbusters and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ t return to normal , can those industries survive ?
For the economy ’ s vast retail sector , the urgent question is : Will customers want to shop in physical stores in numbers anywhere near what they used to be ?
Retailers like Lisa Shah are holding out hope .
Shah has been hurt by a plunge in tourism in Massachusetts and New Hampshire , where her three LIT Boutique stores are located .
Before the pandemic , her women ’ s clothing stores combined would see about 600 customers each weekend @ @ @ @ @ @ @ customers have slashed that figure essentially in half .
Shah has since built up her online store , changed the brands she offers and dangled discounts .
She keeps asking herself what else she can do .
“ I don ’ t know where else to pivot , ” she said .
“ We ’ ve pivoted so much.
” Optimistically , some experts detect a collective hunger to return to the old ways , at least for people with the means to do so — to the familiar and comfortable routines of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , strolling in stores , flying off on vacation .
“ I don ’ t think you should overestimate how much will be permanently changed ” by the pandemic , said Jacob Kirkegaard , senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States .
“ The idea that COVID will be a fork in the road for a lot of things — I am personally skeptical.
’ People , Kirkegaard said , “ want to go to restaurants .
They want their life back , not a new life they haven @ @ @ @ @ @ @ where the virus originated , may provide a hint of what ’ s to come for others .
After that nation mostly contained the virus with a draconian lockdown and became the first major economy to emerge from the pandemic , normal life reasserted itself with surprising speed .
People returned to restaurants and shops , even though guards still check temperatures at malls and supermarkets .
Cinemas are about half-full but have reopened .
Chinese are beginning to travel for fun again .
MISSING THE OFFICE , NOT THE COMMUTE Uncertainty about @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in how companies and workers have spent months weighing the pros and cons of remote work .
Thimble ’ s head of product , Mitch Kushinsky , enjoys the flexibility of working at home .
He has an old dog that needs to go out every hour to relieve himself .
If he didn ’ t work at home , Kushinsky would probably have had to put the dog down .
He doesn ’ t exactly miss the commute downtown from the Upper West Side .
Then again , Kushinsky has to share @ @ @ @ @ @ @ who can be noisy .
Then there ’ s the unexpected : When a pipe burst in his building , he found himself working alongside construction workers who had to tear down a wall in his apartment to make the repair .
Sometimes , he just misses being with co-workers .
“ You learn a lot just being around people , ” Kushinsky said .
“ You lose that working remotely.
” For all the attention focused on employees who can work effectively from home , they are hardly a majority .
According @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 800 jobs in nine countries , only a fraction of people work in jobs that can effectively be done remotely — fewer than 30 % of workers in the United States , for example , and fewer than 12 % in India .
Still , a McKinsey survey of 800 corporate executives worldwide found that 38 % of them expect their employees who are now working remotely to continue to do so at least two days a week after the pandemic .
That compares with 22 % in surveys before the pandemic , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ big enough to have far-reaching implications — improving the quality of life for some , while deepening inequality and hurting some urban economies .
Emptier cities are a grave threat to downtown restaurants and retailers that depend on office workers .
Rents in cities like San Francisco and New York are sinking as more people move out .
Municipal governments will struggle to collect enough taxes to provide services .
Some employees now working remotely express mixed feelings about the arrangement .
A body of studies indicates that most of them oppose giving @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I miss Manhattan so much — it feels like a piece of me is missing , ” said Han Dang , Thimble ’ s 31-year-old chief of staff , who has been working out of her apartment in Queens , where she grew up .
“ Every time I go back , I remember the places I went to , the coffeehouses , the shops.
” Janet Pogue McLaurin , a global research leader for the architecture and planning firm Gensler , expects many companies to eventually adopt a hybrid model , allowing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ twice week .
In a survey of about 2,300 U.S. office workers , Gensler found that only 19 % wanted to keep working from home full time .
More than half said they ’ d favor going to the office part of the week .
One-third said they wanted to be in the office full time .
Verizon is reviewing which of its employees ’ jobs can be done most effectively from home , said Christy Pambianchi , the telecom giant ’ s chief human resource officer .
But Verizon has decided that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ service centers , answering questions by phone or online , will work from home permanently .
Before COVID , Pambianchi said , “ there were a lot of things they thought they couldn ’ t do remotely .
Not only have they done it ; they have done is successfully for eight or nine months.
’ Jazmyn Brown worked at Verizon stores for more than six years , rising to manager by the time the pandemic hit .
When her store closed , she was transferred to customer service , a job she @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , 31 , is delighted .
The move eliminated a long commute that kept her away from home in San Diego until 8 p.m. and gave her less than an hour with her young son .
Now , she ends her workday at 4:45 p.m. , with just a quick drive to to pick up the 2-year-old from his grandmother ’ s house .
Last year , she didn ’ t even have time to buy a Christmas tree .
This year , it ’ s already up .
“ Everything has slowed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ than before , ” Brown said .
“ I don ’ t miss driving .
I don ’ t miss traffic .
I don ’ t miss filling my gas tank twice a week .
I can cook dinner , and I ’ m not exhausted so we can spend time together.
’ THE GHOST IN THE KITCHEN The pandemic has caused an unimaginable nightmare for the restaurant industry .
Some of the scars will likely linger .
In pre-pandemic days , Brenda ’ s French Soul Food was always hopping .
A @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it drew tourists and locals alike with its beignets and other Southern foods .
Everything slammed to a halt on March 16 , when San Francisco banned indoor dining to stop the spread of the coronavirus .
Suddenly , 150 employees were jobless .
Chef Proprieter Brenda Buenviaje couldn ’ t bear to break the news in person .
It ’ s a story that has happened again and again this year .
The National Restaurant Association estimates that one in six U.S. restaurants — more than 100,000 — have closed .
Many @ @ @ @ @ @ @ delivery , but they need fewer staff .
The association estimates that 2.1 million U.S. restaurant workers remained out of work in November .
Hudson Riehle , who leads research for the association , predicts that U.S. restaurants will collect $ 659 billion in revenue this year — down 27 % from the roughly $ 900 billion the association had forecast earlier this year .
Independent restaurants were hit hardest , said Rick Camac , a dean at the Institute of Culinary Education in New York .
Loans from the government ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that money has long run out .
After an anemic holiday season , Camac expects another big wave of closures early in 2021 .
By contrast , some fast food chains have mainly recovered , thanks to a growing customer use of drive-thru and curbside service .
In China , the world ’ s second-largest economy after the U.S. , spending at restaurants was up 0.8 % in October from a year earlier .
But customers are still uneasy .
Some bring their own utensils , and restaurants keep jugs of hand sanitizer @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , I will be more careful , ” said Chen Luping , a 38-year-old mother of two in Beijing .
The pandemic has accelerated a trend toward takeout and delivery that was already well underway before the virus hit .
In February , 63 % of U.S. restaurant goers were eating their food elsewhere ; by the third quarter of the year , that figure reached 90 % , Riehle said .
Even when restaurants eventually reopen at full capacity , in-person dining may never revert to its pre-pandemic levels because so many @ @ @ @ @ @ @ says David Portalatin , an analyst with The NPD Group .
Restaurants are rethinking the amount of dining space they need and are adding drive-thru lanes .
Starbucks is closing 400 U.S. cafes and speeding up its plans to build more pickup-only locations .
Menus have slimmed down to control costs and focus on food that travels well .
Ghost kitchens , which prepare food for delivery only , may proliferate .
Carrabba ’ s Italian Grill , a 220-restaurant chain , has launched a delivery-only brand called Tender Shack out of its @ @ @ @ @ @ @ five years into the future in a few months ’ time , ” Portalatin said .
Buenviaje kept afloat in several ways .
Brenda ’ s French Soul Food reopened for takeout and delivery .
And she ’ s now shipping meals nationwide through a service called Goldbelly .
Buenviaje sold out of Thanksgiving dinner kits and is creating some for Christmas .
Smaller takeout-focused branches elsewhere , including Brenda ’ s in Oakland , which opened just before the pandemic , are thriving .
And soon , Buenviaje will start delivery in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ She ’ s been able to rehire 75 % of her staff .
“ Out of necessity , ” she said , “ we figured out a new path together.
” The pandemic grounded most corporate travelers .
And it demonstrated that much of the business that used to be done in-person can be achieved as effectively , or nearly so , via email and Zoom conference calls .
Amazon , which told it employees to stop traveling in March , says it ’ s saved nearly $ 1 billion in travel expenses @ @ @ @ @ @ @ decline in business travel would have far-reaching consequences — for corporations as well as for the airlines , hotels and restaurants that cater to them .
Business travel accounts for more than a fifth of global spending on travel and tourism .
Delta Air Lines CEO Ed Bastian has suggested that business travel could settle into a “ new normal , ” 10 % to 20 % below where it used to be .
Southwest Airlines ’ CEO Gary Kelly noted that while overall passenger revenue has dropped 70 % , business travel @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s traffic – has tumbled 90 % .
“ I think that ’ s going to continue for a long time , ” Kelly said .
One possibility : Instead of sending executives out on regular trips to check on field operations , major companies could fly key employees to headquarters once a year .
In the meantime , some tourist destinations have so far managed to weather the storm .
German restaurants and hotels in top tourist destinations like the seashore or the Alps — especially those with outdoor terraces or @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the summer as many people vacationed at home rather than flying to Mediterranean destinations .
It ’ s unclear , though , whether that trend will continue .
The pandemic has also changed — or sped up changes in — how people shop .
Worried about venturing out in the pandemic , people shopped much more online .
When they had to go out , they favored one-stop shopping at big box stores and discounters .
The trend has been devastating for smaller retailers and mall-based stores .
The trend toward online shopping @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for years .
But the pandemic accelerated it by perhaps two years .
Big box stores like Walmart and Target and other big retailers that are deemed “ essential ’ also benefited from being allowed to stay open when much of the economy was locked down in the spring .
U.S. non-store retail sales ( including e-commerce ) grew 5.6 % faster than store sales from January 2011 through this March .
Since then , the gap has ballooned to 24.4 % , according to Retail Metrics , LLC .
Traditional retailers are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 11,157 U.S. stores have closed this year , far surpassing the previous high for store closures : 8,706 in 2017 , according to CoStar Group , a real estate research firm .
Copying discount stores , retailers like Kohl ’ s and Macy ’ s added curbside pickup for the first time this year .
Best Buy is reducing the amount of floor space set aside for traditional shopping and devoting more to in-store pickup and to support deliveries of online orders .
In China , too , e-commerce has experienced a huge @ @ @ @ @ @ @ paying with internet- and cellphone-based systems .
Online merchants posted double-digit sales gains during the pandemic .
Traditional retailers , which had to shutter for two months , are struggling to draw back shoppers , even with discounts of up to 70 % .
E-commerce accounted for 24.2 % of Chinese retail spending in October , versus 14.3 % in the United States , the biggest share for any major country .
The decline in traditional retailing , coupled with the rise in people working at home , carries ominous implications for commercial @ @ @ @ @ @ @ office and retail space throughout urban downtowns is likely to stay weak , offset only partially by e-retailers ’ growing need for warehouse space .
The exodus of downtown workers has been devastating for neighborhood restaurants like Forlini ’ s , a Chintatown fixture since 1956 popular with lawyers and judges who work in lower Manhattan .
Derek Forlini , who inherited the business from his father and now runs it with a cousin , used to relish chatting up customers in the dining room .
He was always surprised and delighted when @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Over the summer , Forlini erected an outdoor dining space and installed plexiglass shields indoors .
But the lunchtime crowds never came back .
At first , Forlini brought back nearly all his 20 or so employees .
Yet within weeks , he had to cut the staff down to about 10 .
He couldn ’ t bring himself to let go any more staffers ; many are longtime friends .
“ I couldn ’ t cut any chefs , ” Forlini said .
“ I just couldn ’ t pick and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ had to forgo their own salaries to keep paying the staff .
When New York reinstated a ban on indoor banning this week , Forlini decided to close the restaurant — not forever , he hopes .
“ Manhattan is ghost town , ” Forlini said .
“ Nobody ’ s working — they all went to Zoom .
And then there are people who just won ’ t come to restaurants .
I know if we reopen , we ’ ll be working for nothing again.
” Wiseman reported from Washington .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ Innocenzio , Joyce M. Rosenberg and Jake Coyle in New York ; David McHugh in Frankfurt , Germany ; Joe McDonald in Beijing ; and Cici Chen in Shanghai contributed to this report .
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NEW YORK — It would be just a temporary precaution.
When the viral pandemic erupted in March, employees of the small insurance firm Thimble fled their Manhattan offices. CEO Jay Bregman planned to call them back soon — as soon as New York was safe again.
Within weeks, he’d changed his mind. Bregman broke his company’s lease and told his two dozen or so staffers they could keep working from home — possibly for good.
The gains were at once unexpected and immediate. Bregman is saving money on rent. He no longer has to persuade recruits to relocate to a crushingly expensive city. He’s increased his staff by 20% and for the first time added new hires in Texas and California.
“I was very skeptical at first that we could conduct business this way for a long time,” Bregman said. But having employees work from home proved a “huge benefit” for everyone.
Like no other event in memory, the pandemic has upended economies in the United States and across the world — transforming how people work, travel, eat, shop and congregate. It has changed how students are educated, how people communicate, how households are entertained and which industries, geographic areas and categories of people will thrive and which will suffer.
It has widened a gap between educated and affluent people who can work from home and the less fortunate — people in lower-income households without college educations or high skills who depend solely on wages rather than stock or home equity gains — who now stand to be left further behind. And it’s forced many working mothers to quit their jobs for lack of child care.
The economy shed a shocking 22 million jobs after the pandemic struck. Many employers have since recalled some of their furloughed workers. Yet the recovery has slowed. Not until the end of 2023 does Moody’s Analytics foresee the U.S. economy regaining its pre-pandemic employment level. In the most bruised sectors — hotels, for example, and retail — changing economic habits mean that employers may never need as many workers as they did before the pandemic.
Even after vaccines have conquered the virus, economies have restored their health and jobless people have found work again, the economic landscape will almost surely look different. Among the many life-altering consequences of the year 2020, the coronavirus reshaped how people and businesses engage economically.
At the very least, the crisis accelerated trends that were already well underway: A shift away from physical stores toward e-commerce. The flexibility of working from home. The streaming of movies rather than theater-going. Frequent meal deliveries. Video-conferencing replacing much business travel.
“We’re not going back to the same economy,’ Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell told a European Central Bank forum last month “We’re recovering, but to a different economy.’
Businesses are rewriting their business plans to keep up. Warner Bros Pictures announced this month that all its 2021 movies, including a new “Matrix’ movie and “Godzilla vs. King Kong,” will stream on HBO Max at the same time that they appear in theaters — a seismic shift for Hollywood. Restaurants are testing delivery-only “ghost kitchens’ to keep serving customers who remain wary of crowded dining rooms.
Even so, economists say it’s far from certain which of the myriad changes will prove permanent and which may fade as people who’ve been holed up at home for months return to their pre-pandemic routines.
Will white-collar workers yearn for their old cubicles and face-to-face contact with friends and colleagues? Will foodies return to fashionable restaurants, young people to the hottest bars? Will audiences once again gather, elbow to elbow, for symphonies, Hollywood blockbusters and Broadway musicals? If attendance doesn’t return to normal, can those industries survive?
For the economy’s vast retail sector, the urgent question is: Will customers want to shop in physical stores in numbers anywhere near what they used to be?
Retailers like Lisa Shah are holding out hope. Shah has been hurt by a plunge in tourism in Massachusetts and New Hampshire, where her three LIT Boutique stores are located. Before the pandemic, her women’s clothing stores combined would see about 600 customers each weekend. Government-mandated restrictions and the anxiety of customers have slashed that figure essentially in half.
Shah has since built up her online store, changed the brands she offers and dangled discounts. She keeps asking herself what else she can do.
“I don’t know where else to pivot,” she said. “We’ve pivoted so much.”
Optimistically, some experts detect a collective hunger to return to the old ways, at least for people with the means to do so — to the familiar and comfortable routines of gathering at bars, dining in restaurants, strolling in stores, flying off on vacation.
“I don’t think you should overestimate how much will be permanently changed” by the pandemic, said Jacob Kirkegaard, senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States. “The idea that COVID will be a fork in the road for a lot of things — I am personally skeptical.’
People, Kirkegaard said, “want to go to restaurants. They want their life back, not a new life they haven’t tried before.’
China, where the virus originated, may provide a hint of what’s to come for others. After that nation mostly contained the virus with a draconian lockdown and became the first major economy to emerge from the pandemic, normal life reasserted itself with surprising speed. People returned to restaurants and shops, even though guards still check temperatures at malls and supermarkets. Cinemas are about half-full but have reopened. Chinese are beginning to travel for fun again.
MISSING THE OFFICE, NOT THE COMMUTE
Uncertainty about COVID’s lasting impact is evident in how companies and workers have spent months weighing the pros and cons of remote work.
Thimble’s head of product, Mitch Kushinsky, enjoys the flexibility of working at home. He has an old dog that needs to go out every hour to relieve himself. If he didn’t work at home, Kushinsky would probably have had to put the dog down. He doesn’t exactly miss the commute downtown from the Upper West Side.
Then again, Kushinsky has to share the home workspace with his wife, who can be noisy. Then there’s the unexpected: When a pipe burst in his building, he found himself working alongside construction workers who had to tear down a wall in his apartment to make the repair.
Sometimes, he just misses being with co-workers.
“You learn a lot just being around people,” Kushinsky said. “You lose that working remotely.”
For all the attention focused on employees who can work effectively from home, they are hardly a majority. According to a McKinsey Global Institute study of 800 jobs in nine countries, only a fraction of people work in jobs that can effectively be done remotely — fewer than 30% of workers in the United States, for example, and fewer than 12% in India.
Still, a McKinsey survey of 800 corporate executives worldwide found that 38% of them expect their employees who are now working remotely to continue to do so at least two days a week after the pandemic. That compares with 22% in surveys before the pandemic, according to McKinsey.
The shift is big enough to have far-reaching implications — improving the quality of life for some, while deepening inequality and hurting some urban economies. Emptier cities are a grave threat to downtown restaurants and retailers that depend on office workers. Rents in cities like San Francisco and New York are sinking as more people move out. Municipal governments will struggle to collect enough taxes to provide services.
Some employees now working remotely express mixed feelings about the arrangement. A body of studies indicates that most of them oppose giving up the workplace environment entirely.
“I miss Manhattan so much — it feels like a piece of me is missing,” said Han Dang, Thimble’s 31-year-old chief of staff, who has been working out of her apartment in Queens, where she grew up. “Every time I go back, I remember the places I went to, the coffeehouses, the shops.”
Janet Pogue McLaurin, a global research leader for the architecture and planning firm Gensler, expects many companies to eventually adopt a hybrid model, allowing people to work from home once or twice week. In a survey of about 2,300 U.S. office workers, Gensler found that only 19% wanted to keep working from home full time. More than half said they’d favor going to the office part of the week. One-third said they wanted to be in the office full time.
Verizon is reviewing which of its employees’ jobs can be done most effectively from home, said Christy Pambianchi, the telecom giant’s chief human resource officer. But Verizon has decided that its 20,000 employees who work in customer service centers, answering questions by phone or online, will work from home permanently.
Before COVID, Pambianchi said, “there were a lot of things they thought they couldn’t do remotely. Not only have they done it; they have done is successfully for eight or nine months.’
Jazmyn Brown worked at Verizon stores for more than six years, rising to manager by the time the pandemic hit. When her store closed, she was transferred to customer service, a job she will do from home permanently.
Brown, 31, is delighted. The move eliminated a long commute that kept her away from home in San Diego until 8 p.m. and gave her less than an hour with her young son. Now, she ends her workday at 4:45 p.m., with just a quick drive to to pick up the 2-year-old from his grandmother’s house. Last year, she didn’t even have time to buy a Christmas tree. This year, it’s already up.
“Everything has slowed down, and I have more time than before,” Brown said. “I don’t miss driving. I don’t miss traffic. I don’t miss filling my gas tank twice a week. I can cook dinner, and I’m not exhausted so we can spend time together.’
THE GHOST IN THE KITCHEN
The pandemic has caused an unimaginable nightmare for the restaurant industry. Some of the scars will likely linger.
In pre-pandemic days, Brenda’s French Soul Food was always hopping. A popular restaurant in downtown San Francisco, it drew tourists and locals alike with its beignets and other Southern foods.
Everything slammed to a halt on March 16, when San Francisco banned indoor dining to stop the spread of the coronavirus. Suddenly, 150 employees were jobless. Chef Proprieter Brenda Buenviaje couldn’t bear to break the news in person.
It’s a story that has happened again and again this year. The National Restaurant Association estimates that one in six U.S. restaurants — more than 100,000 — have closed. Many that stayed open shifted to takeout and delivery, but they need fewer staff. The association estimates that 2.1 million U.S. restaurant workers remained out of work in November. Hudson Riehle, who leads research for the association, predicts that U.S. restaurants will collect $659 billion in revenue this year — down 27% from the roughly $900 billion the association had forecast earlier this year.
Independent restaurants were hit hardest, said Rick Camac, a dean at the Institute of Culinary Education in New York. Loans from the government’s Payroll Protection Program helped initially. But that money has long run out. After an anemic holiday season, Camac expects another big wave of closures early in 2021.
By contrast, some fast food chains have mainly recovered, thanks to a growing customer use of drive-thru and curbside service. In China, the world’s second-largest economy after the U.S., spending at restaurants was up 0.8% in October from a year earlier. But customers are still uneasy. Some bring their own utensils, and restaurants keep jugs of hand sanitizer at the front door.
“Now, I will be more careful,” said Chen Luping, a 38-year-old mother of two in Beijing.
The pandemic has accelerated a trend toward takeout and delivery that was already well underway before the virus hit. In February, 63% of U.S. restaurant goers were eating their food elsewhere; by the third quarter of the year, that figure reached 90%, Riehle said.
Even when restaurants eventually reopen at full capacity, in-person dining may never revert to its pre-pandemic levels because so many people now prefer eating at home, says David Portalatin, an analyst with The NPD Group.
Restaurants are rethinking the amount of dining space they need and are adding drive-thru lanes. Starbucks is closing 400 U.S. cafes and speeding up its plans to build more pickup-only locations. Menus have slimmed down to control costs and focus on food that travels well. Ghost kitchens, which prepare food for delivery only, may proliferate. Carrabba’s Italian Grill, a 220-restaurant chain, has launched a delivery-only brand called Tender Shack out of its kitchens.
“We fast forwarded about five years into the future in a few months’ time,” Portalatin said.
Buenviaje kept afloat in several ways. Brenda’s French Soul Food reopened for takeout and delivery. And she’s now shipping meals nationwide through a service called Goldbelly. Buenviaje sold out of Thanksgiving dinner kits and is creating some for Christmas.
Smaller takeout-focused branches elsewhere, including Brenda’s in Oakland, which opened just before the pandemic, are thriving. And soon, Buenviaje will start delivery in Silicon Valley through a ghost kitchen. She’s been able to rehire 75% of her staff.
“Out of necessity,” she said, “we figured out a new path together.”
GROUNDED
The pandemic grounded most corporate travelers. And it demonstrated that much of the business that used to be done in-person can be achieved as effectively, or nearly so, via email and Zoom conference calls. Amazon, which told it employees to stop traveling in March, says it’s saved nearly $1 billion in travel expenses so far this year.
Any long-term decline in business travel would have far-reaching consequences — for corporations as well as for the airlines, hotels and restaurants that cater to them. Business travel accounts for more than a fifth of global spending on travel and tourism.
Delta Air Lines CEO Ed Bastian has suggested that business travel could settle into a “new normal,” 10% to 20% below where it used to be. Southwest Airlines’ CEO Gary Kelly noted that while overall passenger revenue has dropped 70%, business travel — normally more than one-third of Southwest’s traffic – has tumbled 90%.
“I think that’s going to continue for a long time,” Kelly said.
One possibility: Instead of sending executives out on regular trips to check on field operations, major companies could fly key employees to headquarters once a year.
In the meantime, some tourist destinations have so far managed to weather the storm. German restaurants and hotels in top tourist destinations like the seashore or the Alps — especially those with outdoor terraces or beer gardens — enjoyed some respite over the summer as many people vacationed at home rather than flying to Mediterranean destinations. It’s unclear, though, whether that trend will continue.
MALL MELTDOWN
The pandemic has also changed — or sped up changes in — how people shop. Worried about venturing out in the pandemic, people shopped much more online. When they had to go out, they favored one-stop shopping at big box stores and discounters. The trend has been devastating for smaller retailers and mall-based stores.
The trend toward online shopping has been growing, of course, for years. But the pandemic accelerated it by perhaps two years. Big box stores like Walmart and Target and other big retailers that are deemed “essential’ also benefited from being allowed to stay open when much of the economy was locked down in the spring.
U.S. non-store retail sales (including e-commerce) grew 5.6% faster than store sales from January 2011 through this March. Since then, the gap has ballooned to 24.4%, according to Retail Metrics, LLC. Traditional retailers are retreating in the face of competition: 11,157 U.S. stores have closed this year, far surpassing the previous high for store closures: 8,706 in 2017, according to CoStar Group, a real estate research firm .
Copying discount stores, retailers like Kohl’s and Macy’s added curbside pickup for the first time this year. Best Buy is reducing the amount of floor space set aside for traditional shopping and devoting more to in-store pickup and to support deliveries of online orders.
In China, too, e-commerce has experienced a huge boost. Housebound families shopped online, paying with internet- and cellphone-based systems. Online merchants posted double-digit sales gains during the pandemic. Traditional retailers, which had to shutter for two months, are struggling to draw back shoppers, even with discounts of up to 70%.
E-commerce accounted for 24.2% of Chinese retail spending in October, versus 14.3% in the United States, the biggest share for any major country.
The decline in traditional retailing, coupled with the rise in people working at home, carries ominous implications for commercial real estate, too. Demand for office and retail space throughout urban downtowns is likely to stay weak, offset only partially by e-retailers’ growing need for warehouse space.
The exodus of downtown workers has been devastating for neighborhood restaurants like Forlini’s, a Chintatown fixture since 1956 popular with lawyers and judges who work in lower Manhattan.
Derek Forlini, who inherited the business from his father and now runs it with a cousin, used to relish chatting up customers in the dining room. He was always surprised and delighted when a judge recognized him in the street.
Over the summer, Forlini erected an outdoor dining space and installed plexiglass shields indoors. But the lunchtime crowds never came back. At first, Forlini brought back nearly all his 20 or so employees. Yet within weeks, he had to cut the staff down to about 10. He couldn’t bring himself to let go any more staffers; many are longtime friends.
“I couldn’t cut any chefs,” Forlini said. “I just couldn’t pick and choose.”
Forlini and his cousin eventually had to forgo their own salaries to keep paying the staff. When New York reinstated a ban on indoor banning this week, Forlini decided to close the restaurant — not forever, he hopes.
“Manhattan is ghost town,” Forlini said. “Nobody’s working — they all went to Zoom. And then there are people who just won’t come to restaurants. I know if we reopen, we’ll be working for nothing again.”
___
Wiseman reported from Washington. Dee-Ann Durbin in Detroit; Anne D’Innocenzio, Joyce M. Rosenberg and Jake Coyle in New York; David McHugh in Frankfurt, Germany; Joe McDonald in Beijing; and Cici Chen in Shanghai contributed to this report.
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thedenverpost--2020-12-20--What happened to the Colorado Republican Party?

The Jefferson County GOP began its annual assemblies in the 1990s by asking all elected Republicans in attendance to say a few words .
“ It was not uncommon for it to take an hour to get through all of those speeches , ” said Rob Fairbank , the former state representative from Littleton .
Now , said Rob Witwer , former attorney for the Jefferson County GOP and also a former state lawmaker , “ It would take five minutes .
You could fit all the elected officials in a phone booth .
“ And that , ” he @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the trajectory of the party over the past 25 years.
” This is a low point for the Colorado GOP , now with less electoral power than at any time since World War II .
Democrats control both chambers of the statehouse by comfortable margins — 41-24 in the House , 20-15 in the Senate .
The governor , attorney general , treasurer and secretary of state are all Democrats .
Next year , both of the state ’ s U.S. senators and four of its seven U.S. representatives will be Democrats .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ Board of Regents , previously the last statewide body controlled by the GOP , flipped blue for the first time in 41 years .
Just 18 years ago , roughly the opposite was true .
The Denver Post examined data and spoke to more than 20 Republicans , including many current and former elected and officials , and found most attribute the powerlessness of a party that was competitive here just a few years ago , and dominant as recently as 2002 , to a mix of factors : allegedly mismanaged campaign money @ @ @ @ @ @ @ its direction and message ; the increasing strength of the Democratic Party ; demographic shifts that contributed heavily to the GOP ’ s disadvantage in voter registration ; and the unpopularity of President Donald Trump , whom one pollster referred to as a “ rocket booster ” for Colorado Democrats .
Jefferson County , once firmly red and later a bellwether , is run by Democrats now .
In fact , Democrats dominate the Denver area suburbs in general .
Arapahoe , Adams , Broomfield , Jefferson and Douglas counties cumulatively went for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ago — on par with the statewide margin .
This year , those counties combined went for Biden by more than 15 points .
That leaves the party in soul-searching mode .
A slew of party bigwigs , such as U.S. Rep. Ken Buck , former House Minority Leader and current state Rep. Patrick Neville , outgoing U.S. Sen. Cory Gardner and incoming U.S. Rep. Lauren Boebert have allied themselves with a far-right politics despite an electorate that ’ s now about 33 % Democratic , 27 % Republican and 40 % independent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ favoring Joe Biden by about 25 points this year .
“ You have to be a big tent , ” said state Sen. Kevin Priola , a Henderson Republican and a moderate who outperformed Trump in his district by close to 10 points — a rare bright spot for the GOP .
“ You have to have a number of interests and voters and coalitions that support what you ’ re trying to do and how you ’ re trying to do it .
Unfortunately , that idea has kind of been pushed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the prior decade .
That philosophy has been seen as equivocating or being soft or not fighting enough.
” The disappearance of the Priola brand of politics within much of the GOP — he said he ’ s felt marginalized at times — and the electoral consequences of it , are perhaps best exemplified recently by the state House Republican caucus , where the GOP seat deficit in the chamber of 65 ballooned from three to 17 in just four years .
Whatever other problems the GOP faced , they appeared to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ otherwise fringe candidates in safe seats over the last decade , said Frank McNulty , former Republican speaker of the Colorado House One of those candidates was Neville , of Castle Rock , who was elected in 2014 .
House Republicans then elevated him to minority leader in late 2016 , handing him the keys to the caucus bank account .
That fund is meant to protect sitting Republicans , attract new candidates and contribute to their campaigns .
Members of the caucus across the state add to its balance , so it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
But a few things changed under Neville .
The new minority leader renamed the fund “ Values First Colorado ” and registered the account to his brother , Joe Neville .
He also fired the old advertising vendor — who would send out mailers , buy media ad spots and more — and hired his brother ’ s company , Rearden Strategic .
“ I said ‘ OK this looks bad , but I won ’ t be upset if they win , ’ ” said former Republican state lawmaker Greg Brophy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ t win .
House Republicans lost five seats in 2018 and broke even this year .
Not since Lyndon Johnson ’ s presidency has their deficit been so great .
“ You start looking at the money transfers and the way they hid expenditures so you can ’ t even tell what the money ’ s being spent on , ” Brophy added .
After the 2018 losses , some House Republicans — including Rep. Jim Wilson of Salida — raised an eyebrow over retaining the Rearden connection .
“ I said , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , if the coach goes 1-11 , you don ’ t hire that coach back , ’ ” Wilson said .
But the checks to Joe Neville ’ s company kept coming .
Since November 2017 , Values First cut at least $ 207,800 in checks to Rearden Strategic , campaign finance filings show .
In addition , the House fund gave two other committees run by Joe Neville — Citizens for Secure Borders IEC and Take Back Colorado — at least $ 274,200 and $ 545,000 , respectively .
In turn , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ least $ 306,554 between May and November of this year , the finance documents show .
And Citizens for Secure Borders has paid Rearden at least $ 140,873 .
Values First also wrote three checks in 2018 worth a total of $ 363,000 to Colorado Liberty PAC , controlled by Neville ally and Rearden employee Aaron Yates , the financial documents show .
Between 2018 and 2019 , Yates ’ PAC transferred at least $ 340,271 back to Rearden .
Yates did not return messages seeking comment .
That means in a little @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in just under $ 1 million from those four funds alone .
Corporations created by Neville ally Matt Arnold — Values First ’ s designated filing agent — also received at least $ 21,250 in “ consultant and professional services ” payments from the House fund between 2019 and 2020 , state filings show .
Arnold did not return a call seeking comment on those expenditures .
Several House Republicans told The Denver Post the money was not spent in a transparent manner .
Rep. Larry Liston said he felt embarrassed on behalf @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and received nothing .
“ There was no oversight , there was no input and the money was not spent on the appropriate candidates at the appropriate times , ” Rep. Lois Landgraf said .
“ There are candidates who should certainly feel cheated and the caucus overall should feel cheated.
” Neville did not return a call from The Denver Post but in a series of text messages said he and his brother were transparent with the Values First cash .
He ’ s also quick to note that House Republicans maintained @ @ @ @ @ @ @ year despite being largely outspent by Democrats , and he wrote that he ’ s “ proud of what we did.
” Joe Neville said the 2018 and 2020 elections were difficult for Republicans all over and his company did the best it could .
He also acknowledged that Rearden did not earn the House ’ s vending contract through a competitive bidding process in 2018 or in 2020 .
“ We weren ’ t trying to take money and fleece anybody , that ’ s not the goal , ” Joe Neville @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ?
No .
And now it ’ s somebody else ’ s turn.
” Some payments from Values First were interpreted by House Republicans as an attack on a sitting member of their own caucus .
Former state Rep. Justin Everett , an arch-conservative , and his company , Comma Consulting , received at least $ 17,500 from Values first between 2018 and 2020 .
Everett was paid for some copywriting and marketing work , Joe Neville said , and the checks stopped once the former representative announced he would oppose incumbent Republican @ @ @ @ @ @ @ primary this year .
Larson is young , relatively moderate and he ’ s shown he can win in the suburbs , unlike most of the rest of his party .
And so the fact that he faced a challenge from the right this year from an old friend of the Nevilles disturbed many in the party .
“ There ’ s no opportunity for any diversity of viewpoints within a party where any deviation from the most conservative line is considered heresy , ” said Witwer , the former lawmaker and co-author @ @ @ @ @ @ @ how Colorado Democrats rose to power .
Witwer is now a registered independent .
“ The roadmap is there for anybody who wants to follow it , ” he added .
“ It was written by people like ( CU Regent ) Heidi Ganahl , Kevin Priola and Colin Larson .
It ’ s a pragmatic form of conservatism , where people are strong on their principles but understand the need to communicate and work with people who might disagree with them.
” Larson fended off Everett ’ s challenge and said it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ his opponent produced for the caucus money , and why Patrick Neville didn ’ t publicly rebuke the primary attempt .
“ It ’ s the job of the Republican leader to defend his House caucus members , ” Larson said .
Some ads bought with the house fund feature Neville more prominently than the candidates they were meant to support .
“ The money is spent in a way that it recycles the political future of Patrick Neville and not the candidates for whom the help is intended , ” McNulty said @ @ @ @ @ @ @ House minority leadership this year ; though it was his choice not to run , he was effectively ousted by his own caucus , which replaced him with Hugh McKean of Loveland .
The end result of his leadership , many in the party agree , is lost time , money and energy , translating to lost votes for Republicans at a time when they could least afford it .
It was only six years ago in November that Colorado Republicans celebrated a mostly successful election .
Cory Gardner had beaten Mark Udall @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Williams had become secretary of state , beating now-U.S. Rep. Joe Neguse , a national rising star in Democratic politics .
Cynthia Coffman won the race for attorney general by nine points , and Bob Beauprez lost narrowly to John Hickenlooper in the race for governor .
That feels like a lifetime ago , for many in both parties .
All those big-ticket seats the GOP won in 2014 are now blue .
And there ’ s real concern not just about the losses , but about how the state is trending .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ with college degrees of all states , and the population growth here has been focused in urban areas that are trending away from the GOP .
Even El Paso County , home of Colorado Springs and a Republican stronghold , is increasingly competitive ; Trump won just 53.5 % of the vote there this year , while Democratic strongholds got even bluer .
Almost four in five Denver voters chose Biden .
“ El Paso is the thing that , if I was a Republican , would ’ ve scared the ( expletive @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Craig Hughes , the longtime Democratic consultant .
“ They ’ re losing their base .
and they ’ ve already lost the swing areas.
” It ’ s to the point , Hughes and several pollsters believe , that in a statewide election , a generic Democrat starts with a nine- or 10-point advantage .
“ I think 2018 was basically plus-8 , and 2016 was basically plus-4 and 2014 was minus-5 , ” Hughes said .
“ They ’ re in a very deep hole now.
” Added Brianna Titone , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ one of a slew of Democrats who ’ ve flipped previously comfortable Republican seats , “ If the Republicans continue to go toward these ways of denying science and emboldening white nationalists — those kinds of things — the average suburban person , they don ’ t want that kind of stuff.
” Demographic and electoral shifts , in the suburbs and beyond , have lent urgency to a party searching for direction .
Part of the problem is that Republicans continue to ignore their own beyond the I-25 and I-70 corridors , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ member for the state GOP and Eagle County Republican Party chair .
“ They drive right past us on the way to Aspen to collect big checks , ” Ferry said .
“ They ’ ve got 1,200 Republicans there last I checked .
I ’ ve got 8,000 right here.
” Ferry is among a number of state party leaders keen to move on from the current state party chair , Ken Buck .
Buck embodied much GOP infighting this year .
He made national headlines in May after a recording showed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ El Paso County to submit incorrect election results to the secretary of state .
And then the Weld County GOP chair mentioned one of Buck ’ s congressional aides in a complaint alleging election fraud and corruption .
Buck did not grant The Denver Post an interview for this story .
Democrats passed the first complaint to the state board that regulates attorneys , asking them to disbar Buck .
And the second was passed to the Attorney General ’ s office for additional investigation .
Both generated bad press and a distraction @ @ @ @ @ @ @ should otherwise be focused on the 2020 election .
Already other Republicans appear poised to run for Buck ’ s chair .
He announced Thursday he would not run for a second term .
“ He ’ s smarter than he looks because he wouldn ’ t have gotten elected anyway , ” Ferry said .
“ He ’ s very unpopular.
” However the race for party chair turns out , there is a general feeling among many Republicans that without new leadership and a fresh vision they will continue to suffer @ @ @ @ @ @ @ GOP needs to have a deep bench and diverse bench and we need to field quality candidates that can compete with the Democratic candidates from the top of the ticket to the bottom , ” Priola said .
“ That ’ s one area the Colorado GOP could focus on.
” Priola ’ s caucus will be entirely white next year , with one woman member .
The statehouse Democrats , by contrast , are an increasingly diverse bunch , much more reflective of a diversifying electorate .
“ There ’ s never @ @ @ @ @ @ @ been rejected based on their gender or their race , ” said Naumann , of the state Senate GOP .
“ We ’ re not going to tell someone who ’ s white , ‘ Sorry , we have enough white people , ’ but if we can show that we are a party that fights for all of Colorado , that diversity of candidates will be organic.
” Easier said than done , he and many others know .
They ’ re encouraged that Coloradans continue to support fiscal conservatism through ballot @ @ @ @ @ @ @ candidates .
And they hope that a Biden presidency creates an opening for a red wave in 2022 — after all , recent history here shows just how quickly things can change — provided the party learns from its failures , especially those in the Trump era .
“ If the extreme members of the Republican Party ever want to have power again , ” Priola said , “ they ’ re going to have to earn back the trust of the middle .
And the middle , I would say , is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ”

The Jefferson County GOP began its annual assemblies in the 1990s by asking all elected Republicans in attendance to say a few words.
“It was not uncommon for it to take an hour to get through all of those speeches,” said Rob Fairbank, the former state representative from Littleton.
Now, said Rob Witwer, former attorney for the Jefferson County GOP and also a former state lawmaker, “It would take five minutes. You could fit all the elected officials in a phone booth.
“And that,” he adds, “in a nutshell is the trajectory of the party over the past 25 years.”
This is a low point for the Colorado GOP, now with less electoral power than at any time since World War II. Democrats control both chambers of the statehouse by comfortable margins — 41-24 in the House, 20-15 in the Senate. The governor, attorney general, treasurer and secretary of state are all Democrats. Next year, both of the state’s U.S. senators and four of its seven U.S. representatives will be Democrats. In November, the University of Colorado Board of Regents, previously the last statewide body controlled by the GOP, flipped blue for the first time in 41 years.
Just 18 years ago, roughly the opposite was true.
The Denver Post examined data and spoke to more than 20 Republicans, including many current and former elected officials, and found most attribute the powerlessness of a party that was competitive here just a few years ago, and dominant as recently as 2002, to a mix of factors: allegedly mismanaged campaign money; fundamental disagreements within the party over its direction and message; the increasing strength of the Democratic Party; demographic shifts that contributed heavily to the GOP’s disadvantage in voter registration; and the unpopularity of President Donald Trump, whom one pollster referred to as a “rocket booster” for Colorado Democrats.
Jefferson County, once firmly red and later a bellwether, is run by Democrats now. In fact, Democrats dominate the Denver area suburbs in general. Arapahoe, Adams, Broomfield, Jefferson and Douglas counties cumulatively went for Hillary Clinton by five points four years ago — on par with the statewide margin. This year, those counties combined went for Biden by more than 15 points.
That leaves the party in soul-searching mode. A slew of party bigwigs, such as U.S. Rep. Ken Buck, former House Minority Leader and current state Rep. Patrick Neville, outgoing U.S. Sen. Cory Gardner and incoming U.S. Rep. Lauren Boebert have allied themselves with a far-right politics despite an electorate that’s now about 33% Democratic, 27% Republican and 40% independent. Those independents disproportionately lean left, favoring Joe Biden by about 25 points this year.
“You have to be a big tent,” said state Sen. Kevin Priola, a Henderson Republican and a moderate who outperformed Trump in his district by close to 10 points — a rare bright spot for the GOP. “You have to have a number of interests and voters and coalitions that support what you’re trying to do and how you’re trying to do it. Unfortunately, that idea has kind of been pushed out in some areas of the GOP in the prior decade. That philosophy has been seen as equivocating or being soft or not fighting enough.”
The disappearance of the Priola brand of politics within much of the GOP — he said he’s felt marginalized at times — and the electoral consequences of it, are perhaps best exemplified recently by the state House Republican caucus, where the GOP seat deficit in the chamber of 65 ballooned from three to 17 in just four years.
House money and leadership in question
Whatever other problems the GOP faced, they appeared to culminate in the election of undisciplined or otherwise fringe candidates in safe seats over the last decade, said Frank McNulty, former Republican speaker of the Colorado House.
One of those candidates was Neville, of Castle Rock, who was elected in 2014. House Republicans then elevated him to minority leader in late 2016, handing him the keys to the caucus bank account.
That fund is meant to protect sitting Republicans, attract new candidates and contribute to their campaigns. Members of the caucus across the state add to its balance, so it’s meant for the entire group.
But a few things changed under Neville.
The new minority leader renamed the fund “Values First Colorado” and registered the account to his brother, Joe Neville.
He also fired the old advertising vendor — who would send out mailers, buy media ad spots and more — and hired his brother’s company, Rearden Strategic.
“I said ‘OK this looks bad, but I won’t be upset if they win,’” said former Republican state lawmaker Greg Brophy, from Wray.
They didn’t win. House Republicans lost five seats in 2018 and broke even this year. Not since Lyndon Johnson’s presidency has their deficit been so great.
“You start looking at the money transfers and the way they hid expenditures so you can’t even tell what the money’s being spent on,” Brophy added.
After the 2018 losses, some House Republicans — including Rep. Jim Wilson of Salida — raised an eyebrow over retaining the Rearden connection.
“I said, ‘You know, with the Broncos, if the coach goes 1-11, you don’t hire that coach back,’” Wilson said.
But the checks to Joe Neville’s company kept coming.
Since November 2017, Values First cut at least $207,800 in checks to Rearden Strategic, campaign finance filings show. In addition, the House fund gave two other committees run by Joe Neville — Citizens for Secure Borders IEC and Take Back Colorado — at least $274,200 and $545,000, respectively.
In turn, Take Back Colorado has paid Rearden at least $306,554 between May and November of this year, the finance documents show. And Citizens for Secure Borders has paid Rearden at least $140,873.
Values First also wrote three checks in 2018 worth a total of $363,000 to Colorado Liberty PAC, controlled by Neville ally and Rearden employee Aaron Yates, the financial documents show. Between 2018 and 2019, Yates’ PAC transferred at least $340,271 back to Rearden. Yates did not return messages seeking comment.
That means in a little over three years, Rearden Strategic cashed in just under $1 million from those four funds alone.
Corporations created by Neville ally Matt Arnold — Values First’s designated filing agent — also received at least $21,250 in “consultant and professional services” payments from the House fund between 2019 and 2020, state filings show. Arnold did not return a call seeking comment on those expenditures.
Several House Republicans told The Denver Post the money was not spent in a transparent manner.
Rep. Larry Liston said he felt embarrassed on behalf of those who contributed to the funds and received nothing.
“There was no oversight, there was no input and the money was not spent on the appropriate candidates at the appropriate times,” Rep. Lois Landgraf said. “There are candidates who should certainly feel cheated and the caucus overall should feel cheated.”
Neville did not return a call from The Denver Post but in a series of text messages said he and his brother were transparent with the Values First cash. He’s also quick to note that House Republicans maintained their net total number of seats this year despite being largely outspent by Democrats, and he wrote that he’s “proud of what we did.”
Joe Neville said the 2018 and 2020 elections were difficult for Republicans all over and his company did the best it could. He also acknowledged that Rearden did not earn the House’s vending contract through a competitive bidding process in 2018 or in 2020.
“We weren’t trying to take money and fleece anybody, that’s not the goal,” Joe Neville said. “Did it work out? No. And now it’s somebody else’s turn.”
Priorities and infighting
Some payments from Values First were interpreted by House Republicans as an attack on a sitting member of their own caucus. Former state Rep. Justin Everett, an arch-conservative, and his company, Comma Consulting, received at least $17,500 from Values first between 2018 and 2020.
Everett was paid for some copywriting and marketing work, Joe Neville said, and the checks stopped once the former representative announced he would oppose incumbent Republican Rep. Colin Larson of Littleton in his primary this year.
Larson is young, relatively moderate and he’s shown he can win in the suburbs, unlike most of the rest of his party. And so the fact that he faced a challenge from the right this year from an old friend of the Nevilles disturbed many in the party.
“There’s no opportunity for any diversity of viewpoints within a party where any deviation from the most conservative line is considered heresy,” said Witwer, the former lawmaker and co-author of The Blueprint, a book about how Colorado Democrats rose to power. Witwer is now a registered independent.
“The roadmap is there for anybody who wants to follow it,” he added. “It was written by people like (CU Regent) Heidi Ganahl, Kevin Priola and Colin Larson. It’s a pragmatic form of conservatism, where people are strong on their principles but understand the need to communicate and work with people who might disagree with them.”
Larson fended off Everett’s challenge and said it’s still unclear what concrete product his opponent produced for the caucus money, and why Patrick Neville didn’t publicly rebuke the primary attempt.
“It’s the job of the Republican leader to defend his House caucus members,” Larson said.
Some ads bought with the house fund feature Neville more prominently than the candidates they were meant to support.
“The money is spent in a way that it recycles the political future of Patrick Neville and not the candidates for whom the help is intended,” McNulty said.
Patrick Neville did not run for House minority leadership this year; though it was his choice not to run, he was effectively ousted by his own caucus, which replaced him with Hugh McKean of Loveland. The end result of his leadership, many in the party agree, is lost time, money and energy, translating to lost votes for Republicans at a time when they could least afford it.
Pendulum swing
It was only six years ago in November that Colorado Republicans celebrated a mostly successful election. Cory Gardner had beaten Mark Udall in the U.S. Senate race. Wayne Williams had become secretary of state, beating now-U.S. Rep. Joe Neguse, a national rising star in Democratic politics. Cynthia Coffman won the race for attorney general by nine points, and Bob Beauprez lost narrowly to John Hickenlooper in the race for governor.
That feels like a lifetime ago, for many in both parties. All those big-ticket seats the GOP won in 2014 are now blue. And there’s real concern not just about the losses, but about how the state is trending. Colorado has the second-highest number of people with college degrees of all states, and the population growth here has been focused in urban areas that are trending away from the GOP. Even El Paso County, home of Colorado Springs and a Republican stronghold, is increasingly competitive; Trump won just 53.5% of the vote there this year, while Democratic strongholds got even bluer. Almost four in five Denver voters chose Biden.
“El Paso is the thing that, if I was a Republican, would’ve scared the (expletive) out of me,” said Craig Hughes, the longtime Democratic consultant. “They’re losing their base. And they’ve already lost the swing areas.”
It’s to the point, Hughes and several pollsters believe, that in a statewide election, a generic Democrat starts with a nine- or 10-point advantage.
“I think 2018 was basically plus-8, and 2016 was basically plus-4 and 2014 was minus-5,” Hughes said. “They’re in a very deep hole now.”
Added Brianna Titone, Democratic state representative from Arvada, and one of a slew of Democrats who’ve flipped previously comfortable Republican seats, “If the Republicans continue to go toward these ways of denying science and emboldening white nationalists — those kinds of things — the average suburban person, they don’t want that kind of stuff.”
Demographic and electoral shifts, in the suburbs and beyond, have lent urgency to a party searching for direction.
Part of the problem is that Republicans continue to ignore their own beyond the I-25 and I-70 corridors, said Kaye Ferry, an executive committee member for the state GOP and Eagle County Republican Party chair.
“They drive right past us on the way to Aspen to collect big checks,” Ferry said. “They’ve got 1,200 Republicans there last I checked. I’ve got 8,000 right here.”
Ferry is among a number of state party leaders keen to move on from the current state party chair, Ken Buck.
Buck embodied much GOP infighting this year. He made national headlines in May after a recording showed him pressuring a local election official in El Paso County to submit incorrect election results to the secretary of state. And then the Weld County GOP chair mentioned one of Buck’s congressional aides in a complaint alleging election fraud and corruption. Buck did not grant The Denver Post an interview for this story.
Democrats passed the first complaint to the state board that regulates attorneys, asking them to disbar Buck. And the second was passed to the Attorney General’s office for additional investigation. Both generated bad press and a distraction at a time when Republicans said they should otherwise be focused on the 2020 election.
Already other Republicans appear poised to run for Buck’s chair. He announced Thursday he would not run for a second term.
“He’s smarter than he looks because he wouldn’t have gotten elected anyway,” Ferry said. “He’s very unpopular.”
However the race for party chair turns out, there is a general feeling among many Republicans that without new leadership and a fresh vision they will continue to suffer.
“I firmly believe the Colorado GOP needs to have a deep bench and diverse bench and we need to field quality candidates that can compete with the Democratic candidates from the top of the ticket to the bottom,” Priola said. “That’s one area the Colorado GOP could focus on.”
Priola’s caucus will be entirely white next year, with one woman member. The statehouse Democrats, by contrast, are an increasingly diverse bunch, much more reflective of a diversifying electorate.
“There’s never been a circumstance where a candidate has been rejected based on their gender or their race,” said Sage Naumann, spokesman for the state Senate GOP. “We’re not going to tell someone who’s white, ‘Sorry, we have enough white people,’ but if we can show that we are a party that fights for all of Colorado, that diversity of candidates will be organic.”
Easier said than done, he and many others know. They’re encouraged that Coloradans continue to support fiscal conservatism through ballot measures, even as they reject conservative candidates. And they hope that a Biden presidency creates an opening for a red wave in 2022 — after all, recent history here shows just how quickly things can change — provided the party learns from its failures, especially those in the Trump era.
“If the extreme members of the Republican Party ever want to have power again,” Priola said, “they’re going to have to earn back the trust of the middle. And the middle, I would say, is larger than most realize it is.”


thedenverpost--2020-12-20--Post Premium: Top stories for the week of Dec. 14-20, 2020

For all the festive warmth surrounding Christmas , the following day — Saturday — is a dire date on the calendars of more than a quarter million Coloradans .
That ’ s when the federal CARES Act expires , bringing an end to crucial benefits for so many who ’ ve struggled since the pandemic swept into the state last March .
With Congress still at work on a possible successor to the $ 2 trillion package , Denver Post reporters Noelle Phillips and Joe Rubino check in with some of the Coloradans who ’ ve lost work due to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ends meet through CARES Act aid and who now are looking at a looming financial cliff .
Yet even action by Congress won ’ t come soon enough for some , as any new stimulus won ’ t come fast enough to prevent a gap in benefits to the state ’ s neediest .
“ We ’ ve passed the point of no return , ” Michele Evermore , a senior policy analyst for the National Employment Law Project , tells The Post .
“ It ’ s the day after Christmas and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a terrible time for a cliff.
” For so many Coloradans in need , a terrible year could soon get much worse .
Federal pandemic aid expires in a week .
With no safety net in place , many Coloradans face financial ruin .
Five don ’ t-miss stories from last week What happened to the Colorado Republican Party ?
This is a low point for the Colorado GOP , now with less electoral power than at any time since World War II .
We examined data and spoke to more than 20 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of a party that was competitive here just a few years ago , and dominant as recently as 2002 , to a mix of factors : allegedly mismanaged campaign money ; fundamental disagreements within the party over its direction and message ; the increasing strength of the Democratic Party ; demographic shifts that contributed heavily to the GOP ’ s disadvantage in voter registration ; and the unpopularity of President Donald Trump , whom one pollster referred to as a “ rocket booster ” for Colorado Democrats .
Read More… • RELATED : @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Some Republican voters doubt it FAQ : What Coloradans need to know about COVID-19 vaccines More than nine months into the pandemic , the first doses of a COVID-19 vaccine arrived in Colorado this week — and within hours hospitals began injecting doses into the arms of staffers who work most closely with virus-stricken patients .
Here are answers to questions about the vaccine and how Colorado ’ s distribution will work .
Read More… A combination of extended lockdowns , short staffing and rising anxiety about COVID-19 has created a situation @ @ @ @ @ @ @ director of the state ’ s prisons called “ tenuous ” and that has outraged inmates ’ families .
Read More… How much more expensive will Colorado homes become in the next 10 years ?
If the next 10 years are like the past 10 when it comes to home price appreciation , Colorado will become one of the most expensive states in the country for housing , according to Renofi , a website that helps consumers find financing for home renovations .
In the case of Colorado , another 82.2 % gain @ @ @ @ @ @ @ $ 763,309 , double the U.S. average of $ 382,000 .
or metro Denver , the average home price by September 2030 would reach $ 928,267 .
Read More… The local and national investors who bought Denver ’ s Tattered Cover book stores have watched as reactions roll in to their purchase , ranging from joy at the local chain ’ s apparent salvation to fury that its owners would dare claim it as the nation ’ s largest Black-owned book store .
Read More… See more great photos like this on The @ @ @ @ @ @ @

For all the festive warmth surrounding Christmas, the following day — Saturday — is a dire date on the calendars of more than a quarter million Coloradans. That’s when the federal CARES Act expires, bringing an end to crucial benefits for so many who’ve struggled since the pandemic swept into the state last March.
With Congress still at work on a possible successor to the $2 trillion package, Denver Post reporters Noelle Phillips and Joe Rubino check in with some of the Coloradans who’ve lost work due to COVID-19, who’ve barely made ends meet through CARES Act aid and who now are looking at a looming financial cliff.
Yet even action by Congress won’t come soon enough for some, as any new stimulus won’t come fast enough to prevent a gap in benefits to the state’s neediest.
“We’ve passed the point of no return,” Michele Evermore, a senior policy analyst for the National Employment Law Project, tells The Post. “It’s the day after Christmas and rent is due. It’s a terrible time for a cliff.”
For so many Coloradans in need, a terrible year could soon get much worse.
— Matt Sebastian, The Denver Post
Five don’t-miss stories from last week
This is a low point for the Colorado GOP, now with less electoral power than at any time since World War II.
We examined data and spoke to more than 20 Republicans and found most attribute the powerlessness of a party that was competitive here just a few years ago, and dominant as recently as 2002, to a mix of factors: allegedly mismanaged campaign money; fundamental disagreements within the party over its direction and message; the increasing strength of the Democratic Party; demographic shifts that contributed heavily to the GOP’s disadvantage in voter registration; and the unpopularity of President Donald Trump, whom one pollster referred to as a “rocket booster” for Colorado Democrats. Read More…
More than nine months into the pandemic, the first doses of a COVID-19 vaccine arrived in Colorado this week — and within hours hospitals began injecting doses into the arms of staffers who work most closely with virus-stricken patients. Here are answers to questions about the vaccine and how Colorado’s distribution will work. Read More…
A combination of extended lockdowns, short staffing and rising anxiety about COVID-19 has created a situation in Colorado’s prisons that the director of the state’s prisons called “tenuous” and that has outraged inmates’ families. Read More…
If the next 10 years are like the past 10 when it comes to home price appreciation, Colorado will become one of the most expensive states in the country for housing, according to Renofi, a website that helps consumers find financing for home renovations. In the case of Colorado, another 82.2% gain would push the average home price to $763,309, double the U.S. average of $382,000. or metro Denver, the average home price by September 2030 would reach $928,267. Read More…
The local and national investors who bought Denver’s Tattered Cover book stores have watched as reactions roll in to their purchase, ranging from joy at the local chain’s apparent salvation to fury that its owners would dare claim it as the nation’s largest Black-owned book store. Read More…
Photo of the week
See more great photos like this on The Denver Post’s Instagram account.


thedenverpost--2020-12-20--2020 was a stormy, fiery, record-breaking year when climate disasters wouldn’t stop

Nature struck relentlessly in 2020 with record-breaking and deadly weather- and climate-related disasters .
With the most named storms in the Atlantic , the largest-ever area of California burned by wildfires , killer floods in Asia and Africa and a hot , melting Arctic , 2020 was more than a disastrous year with the pandemic .
It was a year of disasters — and climate change from the burning of coal , oil and natural gas was a big factor , scientists said .
The United States didn ’ t just set a record for the most disasters costing at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ inflation — the nation obliterated the record , according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration .
By September , 2020 had tied the old record of 16 billion-dollar disasters and when the count is completed in early January , officials figure it will be 20 , likely more .
Only three states weren ’ t part of a billion-dollar weather disaster ( Alaska , Hawaii and North Dakota ) — and all the coastline from Texas to Maine , except for a tiny part of Florida , was under a watch or @ @ @ @ @ @ @ or storm surge from those systems in 2020 , according to U.S. weather officials .
With 30 named storms , the Atlantic hurricane season surpassed the mark set in 2005 , ran out of storm names and went deep into the Greek alphabet , making meteorologists reconsider how they name future storms , officials said .
Ten of those storms rapidly intensified , making them more dangerous .
A dozen made landfall in the U.S. , easily smashing the old record of nine .
And Louisiana got hit five times .
At one @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 60 New Orleans hotels filled with refugees .
With a devastating 20-year megadrought and near-record heat , California had at least 6,528 square miles ( 16,907 square kilometers ) burned by wildfire , doubling the previous record area burned .
Five of the six l argest wildfires in California history have been in 2020 .
Oregon and Colorado had immense fire damage , too .
More than 10,000 buildings were damaged or destroyed and at least 41 people killed .
Between fires and hurricanes , the American Red Cross provided a record 1.3 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ — four times the annual average for the previous decade .
“ Since April , we ’ ve seen a large disaster occur somewhere in the country every five days , ” said Trevor Riggen , the Red Cross vice president in charge of disasters .
“ It ’ s really been a non-stop pace , and not all those disasters make the news.
” It was such a busy and crazy a year that a derecho that savaged the Midwest somehow flew under the radar , despite damage nearing $ 10 billion @ @ @ @ @ @ @ billion-dollar severe storms , often with tornadoes and hail , struck the U.S. in January , February , twice in March , three times in April and another three times in May .
All these U.S. disasters have “ really added up to create a catastrophic year , ” said Adam Smith , a NOAA applied climatologist .
“ Climate change has its fingerprints on many of these different extremes and disasters.
” “ Nature is sending us a message .
We better hear it , ” United Nations Environment Programme Director Inger @ @ @ @ @ @ @ interview .
“ Wherever you go , whatever continent , we see Nature socking it at us .
The warmest three-year period we ’ ve ever seen .
The Arctic temperatures , the wildfires , etc .
etc.
” Worldwide , more than 220 climate- and weather-related disasters hurt more than 70 million people and caused more than $ 69 billion in damage .
Over 7,500 people were killed , according to preliminary figures from the international disaster database kept at the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters at the Catholic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the disasters the group tracks , including earthquakes , volcanoes and landslides , 85 % to 90 % are climate and weather related , said Director Debarati Guha-Sapir .
Unlike the United States , which saw a rare break in 2020 from increasing non-hurricane flooding , worldwide “ floods is your biggest problem , ” Guha-Sapir said .
“ It ’ s a huge mistake to underestimate floods.
” Floods killed more than 1,900 people in India in June and affected 17 million people , according to the center ’ s data .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Pakistan , Afghanistan and again in India killed at least another 1,250 people .
African floods killed nearly 600 people .
And flooding along Y angtze River and the Three Gorges Dam in China killed at least 279 people in the summer and caused economic losses of more than $ 15 billion , according to the World Meteorological Organization .
Hue , Vietnam had a record 103 inches ( 261 centimeters ) of rain in October , according to the WMO .
Extremes , including heat waves and droughts , hit all @ @ @ @ @ @ @ record 100 degrees ( 38 degrees Celsius ) as much of the Arctic was 9 degrees ( 5 degrees Celsius ) warmer than average and had an exceptionally bad wildfire season .
Arctic sea ice shrank to the second lowest level on record and set a few monthly records for melt .
Death Valley saw the warmest temperature recorded , 129.9 degrees ( 54.4 degrees Celsius ) , on Earth in at least 80 years .
The pace of disasters is noticeably increasing , said disaster experts and climate scientists .
The international @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to 1999 , the world had 4,212 disasters affecting 3.25 billion people and costing $ 1.63 trillion , adjusted for inflation .
From 2000 to 2019 those figures jumped to 7,348 disasters , 4.03 billion people affected and $ 2.97 trillion in damage .
“ Disasters are very much becoming a chronic condition in this country , ” said Riggen , who has noticed the change since 2006 when he joined the Red Cross after Hurricane Katrina .
Climate change figures in the growth of disasters , especially wildfires worsened by drought and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ scientist Michael Mann .
“ I didn ’ t expect to see a season with 30 named storms in my lifetime , ” Mann said , noting that hurricanes were fueled by a natural La Nina cooling of parts of the central Pacific combined with human-caused warming of water temperatures .
National Hurricane Center Deputy Director Ed Rappaport said : “ It was an exhausting year.
” The Associated Press Health and Science Department receives support from the Howard Hughes Medical Institute ’ s Department of Science Education .
The AP is solely @ @ @ @ @

Nature struck relentlessly in 2020 with record-breaking and deadly weather- and climate-related disasters.
With the most named storms in the Atlantic, the largest-ever area of California burned by wildfires, killer floods in Asia and Africa and a hot, melting Arctic, 2020 was more than a disastrous year with the pandemic. It was a year of disasters — and climate change from the burning of coal, oil and natural gas was a big factor, scientists said.
The United States didn’t just set a record for the most disasters costing at least $1 billion — adjusted for inflation — the nation obliterated the record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
By September, 2020 had tied the old record of 16 billion-dollar disasters and when the count is completed in early January, officials figure it will be 20, likely more. Only three states weren’t part of a billion-dollar weather disaster (Alaska, Hawaii and North Dakota) — and all the coastline from Texas to Maine, except for a tiny part of Florida, was under a watch or warning for a hurricane, tropical storm or storm surge from those systems in 2020, according to U.S. weather officials.
With 30 named storms, the Atlantic hurricane season surpassed the mark set in 2005, ran out of storm names and went deep into the Greek alphabet, making meteorologists reconsider how they name future storms, officials said. Ten of those storms rapidly intensified, making them more dangerous. A dozen made landfall in the U.S., easily smashing the old record of nine. And Louisiana got hit five times. At one point, the American Red Cross had 60 New Orleans hotels filled with refugees.
With a devastating 20-year megadrought and near-record heat, California had at least 6,528 square miles (16,907 square kilometers) burned by wildfire, doubling the previous record area burned. Five of the six l argest wildfires in California history have been in 2020. Oregon and Colorado had immense fire damage, too. More than 10,000 buildings were damaged or destroyed and at least 41 people killed.
Between fires and hurricanes, the American Red Cross provided a record 1.3 million nights of shelter for disaster-struck Americans — four times the annual average for the previous decade.
“Since April, we’ve seen a large disaster occur somewhere in the country every five days,” said Trevor Riggen, the Red Cross vice president in charge of disasters. “It’s really been a non-stop pace, and not all those disasters make the news.”
It was such a busy and crazy a year that a derecho that savaged the Midwest somehow flew under the radar, despite damage nearing $10 billion, and is barely remembered. Other billion-dollar severe storms, often with tornadoes and hail, struck the U.S. in January, February, twice in March, three times in April and another three times in May.
All these U.S. disasters have “really added up to create a catastrophic year,” said Adam Smith, a NOAA applied climatologist. “Climate change has its fingerprints on many of these different extremes and disasters.”
“Nature is sending us a message. We better hear it,” United Nations Environment Programme Director Inger Andersen told The Associated Press in an interview. “Wherever you go, whatever continent, we see Nature socking it at us. The warmest three-year period we’ve ever seen. The Arctic temperatures, the wildfires, etc. etc.”
Worldwide, more than 220 climate- and weather-related disasters hurt more than 70 million people and caused more than $69 billion in damage. Over 7,500 people were killed, according to preliminary figures from the international disaster database kept at the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters at the Catholic University of Louvain in Belgium.
Of the disasters the group tracks, including earthquakes, volcanoes and landslides, 85% to 90% are climate and weather related, said Director Debarati Guha-Sapir.
Unlike the United States, which saw a rare break in 2020 from increasing non-hurricane flooding, worldwide “floods is your biggest problem,” Guha-Sapir said. “It’s a huge mistake to underestimate floods.”
Floods killed more than 1,900 people in India in June and affected 17 million people, according to the center’s data. Other flooding and associated landslides in Nepal, Pakistan, Afghanistan and again in India killed at least another 1,250 people. African floods killed nearly 600 people. And flooding along Y angtze River and the Three Gorges Dam in China killed at least 279 people in the summer and caused economic losses of more than $15 billion, according to the World Meteorological Organization.
Hue, Vietnam had a record 103 inches (261 centimeters) of rain in October, according to the WMO.
Extremes, including heat waves and droughts, hit all over the world. Siberia reached a record 100 degrees (38 degrees Celsius) as much of the Arctic was 9 degrees (5 degrees Celsius) warmer than average and had an exceptionally bad wildfire season. Arctic sea ice shrank to the second lowest level on record and set a few monthly records for melt.
Death Valley saw the warmest temperature recorded, 129.9 degrees (54.4 degrees Celsius), on Earth in at least 80 years.
The pace of disasters is noticeably increasing, said disaster experts and climate scientists. The international database in Belgium calculated that from 1980 to 1999, the world had 4,212 disasters affecting 3.25 billion people and costing $1.63 trillion, adjusted for inflation. From 2000 to 2019 those figures jumped to 7,348 disasters, 4.03 billion people affected and $2.97 trillion in damage.
“Disasters are very much becoming a chronic condition in this country,” said Riggen, who has noticed the change since 2006 when he joined the Red Cross after Hurricane Katrina.
Climate change figures in the growth of disasters, especially wildfires worsened by drought and heat, said Pennsylvania State University climate scientist Michael Mann.
“I didn’t expect to see a season with 30 named storms in my lifetime,” Mann said, noting that hurricanes were fueled by a natural La Nina cooling of parts of the central Pacific combined with human-caused warming of water temperatures.
National Hurricane Center Deputy Director Ed Rappaport said: “It was an exhausting year.”
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Follow AP’s climate coverage at https://www.apnews.com/Climate
___
Follow Seth Borenstein on Twitter: @ borenbears .
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The Associated Press Health and Science Department receives support from the Howard Hughes Medical Institute’s Department of Science Education. The AP is solely responsible for all content.