newyorker--2020-11-04--It Isn’t Over Yet, but Biden Has Ground for His Confidence

Speaking in Wilmington , Delaware , on Wednesday afternoon , Joe Biden said , “ It ’ s clear that we are winning enough states to reach two hundred and seventy electoral votes needed to win the Presidency .
I ’ m not here to declare that we ’ ve won , but I am here to report when the count is finished we believe we will be the winners.
” The former Vice-President has ground for his confidence .
Earlier in the afternoon , the Associated Press called Wisconsin for him .
CNN also called Michigan for him .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ his direction .
That effectively means that Biden needs to pick up only Arizona or Georgia or Pennsylvania—all states where there are still a lot of uncounted ballots—to get to two hundred and seventy Electoral College votes .
Fox News and the Associated Press have already called Arizona for Biden , who is ahead by about ninety-three thousand votes , with more than eighty-five per cent of the count in .
However , the Arizona Republic reported on Wednesday that there were at least six hundred thousand ballots still to be counted .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ leading by more than three hundred thousand votes in Pennsylvania , but there were still many hundreds of thousands to be counted , mostly from Democratic districts .
“ To my eye , Biden is likely hitting the targets he needs in PA counties to be on track to finish ahead , ” Dave Wasserman , an electoral analyst at the nonpartisan newsletter Cook Political Report commented on Twitter .
In Georgia , Trump was leading by close to eighty thousand votes , with more than two hundred thousand outstanding , many of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reported .
Until we get more information from Arizona and Pennsylvania , nobody should jump to any conclusions .
But there is a reason that the betting markets have installed Biden as the prohibitive favorite and some people on Wall Street are already hailing the return of divided government , with Trump returning to Palm Beach .
By the time all the ballots are counted , it looks like Biden could have received as many as seventy-five million votes , easily eclipsing Barack Obama ’ s total of 69.5 million @ @ @ @ @ @ @ he will have expanded Hillary Clinton ’ s margin in the popular vote , which was 2.1 percentage points .
If he runs this margin up to three points , it will be just one point short of Obama ’ s victory over Mitt Romney , in 2012 .
And nobody said that race was a squeaker .
To be sure , Trump also increased the number of votes he got compared with 2016 .
By the end of the count , he could reach seventy million .
Buoyed by his performance in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ candidates for the Senate and House also did better than expected .
It ’ s a matter of profound regret that the election didn ’ t result in a more overwhelming repudiation of Trump .
And the prospect of Mitch McConnell staying on as Senate Majority Leader is a ghastly one .
But Presidential elections are monumentally important in their own right , and narrow victories are sometimes more consequential than large ones .
If Al Gore had carried Florida in 2000 , it ’ s pretty certain that the invasion of Iraq @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and the world would look quite different .
If , in 2016 , Hillary Clinton had picked up another eighty thousand votes between Michigan , Pennsylvania , and Wisconsin , Trump would have been deprived of the White House bully pulpit , which he has used to further divide and inflame the country for the past four years , all while gravely undermining America ’ s standing in the world .
The success that Trump has enjoyed in his destructive project was clearly reflected in the election returns .
Broadly speaking , he @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” —white rural counties , depressed areas , exurbs—and he did badly in urban and suburban areas .
The story of the election can largely be told through two counties : Arizona ’ s Maricopa County , which includes much of Phoenix and its sprawling suburbs , and Ohio ’ s Mahoning County , which includes parts of Youngstown .
For decades , Maricopa County was a bastion of Sun Belt conservatism : it had voted Republican in every election since the nineteen-fifties ; Barry Goldwater started out there ; until a few @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the fiercely anti-immigrant lawman , was perhaps its best-known resident .
Over the years , though , the county has grown enormously and become far more diverse—today , about a third of its population is Latino .
In 2016 , Trump carried it by 3.4 percentage points .
This year , with eighty-six per cent of the vote counted , Biden is leading him 52.3 per cent to 46.3 per cent .
If this lead holds up in the final vote count , Maricopa County could well prove pivotal for Biden ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the other end of the political spectrum .
About eighty per cent white , it was for decades a center of steel manufacturing and a Democratic stronghold .
The last time it went Republican was 1972 .
In 2016 , Trump cut the Democratic margin dramatically , to 3.3 percentage points .
In 2018 , when General Motors announced that it was closing its Lordstown assembly plant , the area ’ s biggest industrial employer , he castigated the company and vowed to save it .
On Tuesday , he carried the county @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Trump ’ s success in Mahoning County was far from isolated .
In many other parts of the Midwest and the South , he consolidated or expanded his support .
As my colleague Susan B. Glasser noted , the election results confirmed Trump ’ s overwhelming dominance over the Republican Party .
Any prospect of a post-election U-turn by the G.O.P .
has evaporated .
It was a victory for Trumpism , if not for Trump .
And not just among whites , although they remain the overwhelming component of Trump ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , where Trump shrank Clinton ’ s 2016 lead by more than twenty points , and from some heavily Latino counties in Texas , where he cut the margin by nearly thirty points , were striking .
Among Latino men as a whole , Trump got more than a third of the vote , according to an exit poll from Edison Research , conducted for a consortium of news organizations .
Among Black men , he got eighteen per cent .
Right-wing populism and the cult of the strongman is an international phenomenon @ @ @ @ @ @ @ any remaining doubt about the potency of Trump ’ s particular brand of this noxious brew , particularly to men , this election has dispelled it .
Blatant incompetence , corruption , racism , and cruelty are no barrier to popularity .
Fortified by slanted media coverage and outright conspiracy theories fed to them by their social-media algorithms , many of Trump ’ s supporters embrace these attributes or dismiss them as fake news .
They also warm to his message of economic nationalism and his targeting of the other .
International experience @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fend off these populist movements is to assemble a broad coalition against them , which Biden set out to do .
Questions will be raised about his campaign—and also about the campaigns of some other Democratic candidates , who lost despite having raised huge sums of money .
With the Republicans looking likely to retain control of the Senate , it ’ s now unclear how much , if any , of Biden ’ s expansive policy platform will be possible to enact .
Because these proposals include an urgently needed stimulus package @ @ @ @ @ @ @ green energy , expanding child care , and reversing Trump ’ s tax cuts for the rich—this is a grave setback for the country .
Many inquests lie ahead .
Right now , though , the focus is on the outcome of the Presidential election .
If all the votes are duly counted , and the courts do their job , Trump may well be denied the reëlection victory that was afforded to some of his international counterparts , such as India ’ s Narendra Modi and Hungary ’ s Viktor Orbán .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ Read More About the 2020 Election • Live election results : see the latest updates from the Presidential , Senate , House , and gubernatorial races .
• Biden may win , but Trump will remain the President of Red America .
• What happens if Trump fights the election results ?
• Early results suggest that the Electoral College race will be close , with no major realignment .
The Midwest holds the key for Biden .
• The disbelief and horror of Election Night was captured by a Russian poet in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , twenty-six sexual-misconduct accusations , and thousands of lawsuits .
His luck may well end if Joe Biden wins .
• Here is what you can do if Trump stages a coup .
• Sign up for our daily newsletter for insight and analysis from our reporters and columnists .

Speaking in Wilmington, Delaware, on Wednesday afternoon, Joe Biden said, “It’s clear that we are winning enough states to reach two hundred and seventy electoral votes needed to win the Presidency. I’m not here to declare that we’ve won, but I am here to report when the count is finished we believe we will be the winners.” The former Vice-President has ground for his confidence. Earlier in the afternoon, the Associated Press called Wisconsin for him. CNN also called Michigan for him. Nevada also seems to be heading in his direction. That effectively means that Biden needs to pick up only Arizona or Georgia or Pennsylvania—all states where there are still a lot of uncounted ballots—to get to two hundred and seventy Electoral College votes.
Fox News and the Associated Press have already called Arizona for Biden, who is ahead by about ninety-three thousand votes, with more than eighty-five per cent of the count in. However, the Arizona Republic reported on Wednesday that there were at least six hundred thousand ballots still to be counted. On Wednesday afternoon, Donald Trump was leading by more than three hundred thousand votes in Pennsylvania, but there were still many hundreds of thousands to be counted, mostly from Democratic districts. “To my eye, Biden is likely hitting the targets he needs in PA counties to be on track to finish ahead,” Dave Wasserman, an electoral analyst at the nonpartisan newsletter Cook Political Report commented on Twitter. In Georgia, Trump was leading by close to eighty thousand votes, with more than two hundred thousand outstanding, many of them from the Democratic-leaning metro-Atlanta area, the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reported.
Until we get more information from Arizona and Pennsylvania, nobody should jump to any conclusions. But there is a reason that the betting markets have installed Biden as the prohibitive favorite and some people on Wall Street are already hailing the return of divided government, with Trump returning to Palm Beach. By the time all the ballots are counted, it looks like Biden could have received as many as seventy-five million votes, easily eclipsing Barack Obama’s total of 69.5 million in 2008. It also looks like he will have expanded Hillary Clinton’s margin in the popular vote, which was 2.1 percentage points. If he runs this margin up to three points, it will be just one point short of Obama’s victory over Mitt Romney, in 2012. And nobody said that race was a squeaker. To be sure, Trump also increased the number of votes he got compared with 2016. By the end of the count, he could reach seventy million. Buoyed by his performance in many parts of the country, Republican candidates for the Senate and House also did better than expected. It’s a matter of profound regret that the election didn’t result in a more overwhelming repudiation of Trump. And the prospect of Mitch McConnell staying on as Senate Majority Leader is a ghastly one.
But Presidential elections are monumentally important in their own right, and narrow victories are sometimes more consequential than large ones. If Al Gore had carried Florida in 2000, it’s pretty certain that the invasion of Iraq wouldn’t have taken place, and the world would look quite different. If, in 2016, Hillary Clinton had picked up another eighty thousand votes between Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, Trump would have been deprived of the White House bully pulpit, which he has used to further divide and inflame the country for the past four years, all while gravely undermining America’s standing in the world.
The success that Trump has enjoyed in his destructive project was clearly reflected in the election returns. Broadly speaking, he did very well in “Trump areas”—white rural counties, depressed areas, exurbs—and he did badly in urban and suburban areas. The story of the election can largely be told through two counties: Arizona’s Maricopa County, which includes much of Phoenix and its sprawling suburbs, and Ohio’s Mahoning County, which includes parts of Youngstown.
For decades, Maricopa County was a bastion of Sun Belt conservatism: it had voted Republican in every election since the nineteen-fifties; Barry Goldwater started out there; until a few years ago, the sheriff Joe Arpaio, the fiercely anti-immigrant lawman, was perhaps its best-known resident. Over the years, though, the county has grown enormously and become far more diverse—today, about a third of its population is Latino. In 2016, Trump carried it by 3.4 percentage points. This year, with eighty-six per cent of the vote counted, Biden is leading him 52.3 per cent to 46.3 per cent. If this lead holds up in the final vote count, Maricopa County could well prove pivotal for Biden’s success.
Mahoning County is on the other end of the political spectrum. About eighty per cent white, it was for decades a center of steel manufacturing and a Democratic stronghold. The last time it went Republican was 1972. In 2016, Trump cut the Democratic margin dramatically, to 3.3 percentage points. In 2018, when General Motors announced that it was closing its Lordstown assembly plant, the area’s biggest industrial employer, he castigated the company and vowed to save it. On Tuesday, he carried the county by more than two thousand votes.
Trump’s success in Mahoning County was far from isolated. In many other parts of the Midwest and the South, he consolidated or expanded his support. As my colleague Susan B. Glasser noted, the election results confirmed Trump’s overwhelming dominance over the Republican Party. Any prospect of a post-election U-turn by the G.O.P. has evaporated. It was a victory for Trumpism, if not for Trump.
And not just among whites, although they remain the overwhelming component of Trump’s base. The results from Miami-Dade County, where Trump shrank Clinton’s 2016 lead by more than twenty points, and from some heavily Latino counties in Texas, where he cut the margin by nearly thirty points, were striking. Among Latino men as a whole, Trump got more than a third of the vote, according to an exit poll from Edison Research, conducted for a consortium of news organizations. Among Black men, he got eighteen per cent.
Right-wing populism and the cult of the strongman is an international phenomenon, of course. If there was any remaining doubt about the potency of Trump’s particular brand of this noxious brew, particularly to men, this election has dispelled it. Blatant incompetence, corruption, racism, and cruelty are no barrier to popularity. Fortified by slanted media coverage and outright conspiracy theories fed to them by their social-media algorithms, many of Trump’s supporters embrace these attributes or dismiss them as fake news. They also warm to his message of economic nationalism and his targeting of the other.
International experience suggests that the most effective way to fend off these populist movements is to assemble a broad coalition against them, which Biden set out to do. Questions will be raised about his campaign—and also about the campaigns of some other Democratic candidates, who lost despite having raised huge sums of money. With the Republicans looking likely to retain control of the Senate, it’s now unclear how much, if any, of Biden’s expansive policy platform will be possible to enact. Because these proposals include an urgently needed stimulus package and many important long-term reforms—including investing in green energy, expanding child care, and reversing Trump’s tax cuts for the rich—this is a grave setback for the country.
Many inquests lie ahead. Right now, though, the focus is on the outcome of the Presidential election. If all the votes are duly counted, and the courts do their job, Trump may well be denied the reëlection victory that was afforded to some of his international counterparts, such as India’s Narendra Modi and Hungary’s Viktor Orbán. That will be something worth celebrating.
Read More About the 2020 Election


newyorker--2020-11-04--The Election Outcome Will Make Sweeping Climate Action Harder

Subscribers to The Climate Crisis newsletter received this piece in their in-boxes .
Sign up to receive future installments .
If Joe Biden manages to squeak past the gates of the Electoral College—as I am writing this , the returns are looking promising but by no means certain—America will rejoin the diplomatic effort shortly after he takes office .
Given that the first rule of holes is , when you ’ re in one , stop digging , that counts for a lot .
Biden would be able to reverse many of the executive actions that Trump has taken to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ kill some pipelines and protect some national forests .
But , if he takes office and does so—as seems likely—without a working Senate majority , it will complicate efforts to truly take on the climate crisis from Washington .
The Paris pact was a series of voluntary “ accords ” precisely because the rest of the world knew that no actual treaty would ever get the two-thirds vote necessary to pass the United States Senate .
And , with Mitch McConnell still in charge , the chance of getting even the kind of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the ambition of the modest and voluntary targets that we set in the original agreement seems slim , which , in turn , takes at least some of the pressure off of other governments .
It ’ s not that we won ’ t try—and , God knows , the young people of the Sunrise Movement have shown a remarkable ability to defy the conventional wisdom as they ’ ve pushed the Green New Deal to the fore .
But the election hasn ’ t produced the outcome that the planet badly needed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ because exit polling made clear that one of the few things that unites Americans is a desire for more clean energy .
Even Fox ’ s pollsters found that seventy per cent of voters favored “ increasing government spending on green and renewable energy.
” But , since that consensus doesn ’ t include the G.O.P .
leadership , we may have to take that margin and put it to work in places other than the capital—in the country ’ s cities and states , for example , which are already driving the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be able to protect California ’ s electric-vehicle mandate , for instance , and that should be enough to keep Detroit driving in the right direction .
But it ’ s also worth remembering that Washington is just one power center in the United States .
Wall Street is the other major one , and its biggest constituencies—people with money—live in the solidly blue corners of the country .
A Biden Treasury Secretary or S.E.C .
chair will make it easier to pressure the big banks and the asset managers to take the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this is also a place for movements to focus .
The StopTheMoneyPipeline coalition ( which , full disclosure , I helped organize ) put enough pressure on JPMorgan Chase over the past year that the bank—the world ’ s biggest fossil-fuel lender—declared , last month , that it would become “ Paris aligned.
” It ’ s not yet clear how much that means , but continued pressure will force Chase and others to keep pushing the boundaries .
In an ideal world—well , in an ideal world we wouldn ’ t be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the people of Nicaragua .
We ’ re not in an ideal world .
We are where we are , and we have to do all that we can .
With winter weather already rampant in parts of the country , it seems an opportune moment to talk with Kathy Baughman McLeod , the senior vice-president and director of the Adrienne Arsht-Rockefeller Foundation at the Atlantic Council , where she helps lead the Extreme Heat Resilience Alliance .
To draw attention to the rising scourge of deadly heat waves , the group—which includes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Center to the city of Tel Aviv—has proposed naming heat waves in much the same way that we identify hurricanes—giving them recognizable monikers in alphabetical order , so that there ’ s more of a way to focus public attention on them .
Our interview has been edited for length .
Why name heat waves ?
What did this summer teach us about them ?
This summer taught us that we are fundamentally and ridiculously exposed to extreme high temperatures and the often deadly risks that come with them .
People are dying @ @ @ @ @ @ @ we don ’ t really know it or fully understand it .
It ’ s called a “ silent killer , ” because we record these illnesses and deaths as something else—like kidney failure or heart attack .
Heat is killing more people in the U.S. than floods and hurricanes combined , and the numbers are still seriously deflated .
We also know that , in the U.S. , heat disproportionately affects low-income and Black and brown communities .
They were ( arguably still are ) victim to racist urban-planning policies that have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ heat-island effect .
Low-income areas tend to be treeless , concrete-filled neighborhoods that are significantly hotter than adjacent , leafy , wealthier neighborhoods .
Tree-shaded surfaces , for example , can be twenty to forty-five degrees Fahrenheit cooler than the peak temperatures of unshaded streets and sidewalks .
This summer , as well as the record-breaking summer that we had in 2019 , also taught us that heat is the mothership of climate risk—it exacerbates hurricanes driven by warmer air and warmer water , drought and desertification , devastating and cataclysmic wildfires , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ violence , and immense economic loss .
And it ’ s not just extreme heat .
It ’ s the slow-roasting increased nighttime temperatures that don ’ t allow the body to cool down and repair itself .
We are literally cooking ourselves .
And , during the day , when temperatures are most dangerous , outdoor workers are severely exposed—think of all the farmworkers and delivery drivers out there bringing our COVID-19-induced deliveries all day long .
Naming heat waves can give this deadly risk the spotlight it desperately needs , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , new public policy , protection for outdoor workers , resources , and a culture of better preparation that can result in saving lives .
Should we be buying heat-wave insurance ?
What ’ s the economic impact of extreme heat ?
Cities in countries that are less used to dealing with extreme heat are especially vulnerable .
The 2003 heat wave in Europe led to seventy thousand deaths .
In addition to loss of life , cities—especially ones with older infrastructure that is not designed for these temperatures—are exposed to heat risks @ @ @ @ @ @ @ critical systems during heat waves .
Insurance that covers heat impacts right now is in the life-and-health and business-interruption product lines .
Property and casualty insurance for heat is virtually nil .
The economic impact of heat waves is massive .
They can cut goods and service outputs by more than twenty per cent in sectors such as manufacturing and construction .
Global economic costs of reduced productivity could reach two trillion dollars by 2030 .
From 2002 through 2009 , the U.S. health-related cost of heat waves was $ 5.3 billion .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ sense to name them for oil companies ?
Or climate-denying politicians ?
Aha !
I saw this idea on Twitter , too .
If the latest predictions for rising temperatures hold true , we ’ ll run out of names in both categories pretty quickly , given the frequency of heat events we ’ re seeing and the number we expect in the coming years .
The British billionaire investor Chris Hohn said that most E.S.G.—environmental , social , and governance—investment funds are “ a total greenwash ” and that investors “ need @ @ @ @ @ @ @ asset managers talk but don ’ t actually do.
” If you think that wind turbines are shiny new tech , here ’ s an engrossing essay on the more than a million windmills that dotted the American West a century ago , mostly to pump water .
“ Self-governing water pump windmills soon became a staple of the American homestead , ” the writer , Ryan Schnurr , noted .
“ They were simple , well-constructed , and dependable , the windmill equivalent of a pair of denim jeans.
” More frequent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for something that looks altogether too much like a replay of the Dust Bowl , a new study finds .
“ Our results suggest a tipping point is approaching , where the conditions of the 1930s could return , ” Gannet Hallar , an atmospheric scientist at the University of Utah , who led the study , said .

Subscribers to The Climate Crisis newsletter received this piece in their in-boxes. Sign up to receive future installments.
As the odometer turned over into Wednesday—not long before President Trump took to a White House stage to demand that vote-counting cease—the U.S. officially withdrew from the Paris climate agreement. The nation that has poured far more greenhouse gases into the atmosphere than any other is currently also the only nation not officially involved in the global effort to slow global warming.
If Joe Biden manages to squeak past the gates of the Electoral College—as I am writing this, the returns are looking promising but by no means certain—America will rejoin the diplomatic effort shortly after he takes office. Given that the first rule of holes is, when you’re in one, stop digging, that counts for a lot. Biden would be able to reverse many of the executive actions that Trump has taken to undercut the environment; he could probably kill some pipelines and protect some national forests. But, if he takes office and does so—as seems likely—without a working Senate majority, it will complicate efforts to truly take on the climate crisis from Washington. The Paris pact was a series of voluntary “accords” precisely because the rest of the world knew that no actual treaty would ever get the two-thirds vote necessary to pass the United States Senate. And, with Mitch McConnell still in charge, the chance of getting even the kind of climate legislation that would let us increase the ambition of the modest and voluntary targets that we set in the original agreement seems slim, which, in turn, takes at least some of the pressure off of other governments. It’s not that we won’t try—and, God knows, the young people of the Sunrise Movement have shown a remarkable ability to defy the conventional wisdom as they’ve pushed the Green New Deal to the fore. But the election hasn’t produced the outcome that the planet badly needed.
That’s particularly ironic, because exit polling made clear that one of the few things that unites Americans is a desire for more clean energy. Even Fox’s pollsters found that seventy per cent of voters favored “increasing government spending on green and renewable energy.” But, since that consensus doesn’t include the G.O.P. leadership, we may have to take that margin and put it to work in places other than the capital—in the country’s cities and states, for example, which are already driving the clean-energy push. A Biden Presidency should be able to protect California’s electric-vehicle mandate, for instance, and that should be enough to keep Detroit driving in the right direction.
But it’s also worth remembering that Washington is just one power center in the United States. Wall Street is the other major one, and its biggest constituencies—people with money—live in the solidly blue corners of the country. A Biden Treasury Secretary or S.E.C. chair will make it easier to pressure the big banks and the asset managers to take the financial risks of fossil-fuel investment more seriously—but this is also a place for movements to focus. The StopTheMoneyPipeline coalition (which, full disclosure, I helped organize) put enough pressure on JPMorgan Chase over the past year that the bank—the world’s biggest fossil-fuel lender—declared, last month, that it would become “Paris aligned.” It’s not yet clear how much that means, but continued pressure will force Chase and others to keep pushing the boundaries.
In an ideal world—well, in an ideal world we wouldn’t be at Hurricane Eta, wreaking havoc on the people of Nicaragua. We’re not in an ideal world. We are where we are, and we have to do all that we can.
Passing the Mic
With winter weather already rampant in parts of the country, it seems an opportune moment to talk with Kathy Baughman McLeod, the senior vice-president and director of the Adrienne Arsht-Rockefeller Foundation at the Atlantic Council, where she helps lead the Extreme Heat Resilience Alliance. To draw attention to the rising scourge of deadly heat waves, the group—which includes everyone from the Red Cross Global Preparedness Center to the city of Tel Aviv—has proposed naming heat waves in much the same way that we identify hurricanes—giving them recognizable monikers in alphabetical order, so that there’s more of a way to focus public attention on them. Our interview has been edited for length.
Why name heat waves? What did this summer teach us about them?
This summer taught us that we are fundamentally and ridiculously exposed to extreme high temperatures and the often deadly risks that come with them. People are dying from heat and heat waves, and we don’t really know it or fully understand it. It’s called a “silent killer,” because we record these illnesses and deaths as something else—like kidney failure or heart attack. Heat is killing more people in the U.S. than floods and hurricanes combined, and the numbers are still seriously deflated. We also know that, in the U.S., heat disproportionately affects low-income and Black and brown communities. They were (arguably still are) victim to racist urban-planning policies that have left them especially susceptible to the urban heat-island effect. Low-income areas tend to be treeless, concrete-filled neighborhoods that are significantly hotter than adjacent, leafy, wealthier neighborhoods. Tree-shaded surfaces, for example, can be twenty to forty-five degrees Fahrenheit cooler than the peak temperatures of unshaded streets and sidewalks.
This summer, as well as the record-breaking summer that we had in 2019, also taught us that heat is the mothership of climate risk—it exacerbates hurricanes driven by warmer air and warmer water, drought and desertification, devastating and cataclysmic wildfires, food insecurity, water shortages, increased violence, and immense economic loss. And it’s not just extreme heat. It’s the slow-roasting increased nighttime temperatures that don’t allow the body to cool down and repair itself. We are literally cooking ourselves. And, during the day, when temperatures are most dangerous, outdoor workers are severely exposed—think of all the farmworkers and delivery drivers out there bringing our COVID-19-induced deliveries all day long.
Naming heat waves can give this deadly risk the spotlight it desperately needs, and bring media attention, improved advance warning, new public policy, protection for outdoor workers, resources, and a culture of better preparation that can result in saving lives.
Should we be buying heat-wave insurance? What’s the economic impact of extreme heat?
Cities in countries that are less used to dealing with extreme heat are especially vulnerable. The 2003 heat wave in Europe led to seventy thousand deaths. In addition to loss of life, cities—especially ones with older infrastructure that is not designed for these temperatures—are exposed to heat risks to structures, transportation, and other critical systems during heat waves. Insurance that covers heat impacts right now is in the life-and-health and business-interruption product lines. Property and casualty insurance for heat is virtually nil.


newyorker--2020-11-04--Can Republicans Become a Multiracial Working-Class Party?

Hawley has been making this case since shortly after he was elected to the Senate , in 2018 , taking high-profile stances antagonistic to Silicon Valley and arguing for a conservatism oriented around an opposition to “ cosmopolitan élites.
” There was a lot of talk like this from young conservatives early in Trump ’ s term , and it could sound like an effort to flatter the President ’ s instincts .
But , in Tuesday night ’ s results , the imprint of class was , if anything , clearer than it had been four years ago .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ toward Republicans , and those with them , toward Democrats : according to exit polls , Joe Biden won college-educated voters by thirteen points .
In the Midwest , even union ties may have done little to tether non-college-educated voters to Democrats .
According to exit polls in Ohio , voters in union households favored Trump by fourteen points ; those in non-union households favored him by just eight .
After 2016 , many Democrats could , and did , argue that their struggles with working-class voters were due in part to their @ @ @ @ @ @ @ now seems less plausible : it is harder to blame the top of the ticket in 2016 or 2020 .
Among Biden ’ s most visible supporters on the campaign trail were members of the International Association of Fire Fighters , with whom he has long had a close political relationship .
He was particularly attentive to issues and imagery thought to resonate with working-class Midwesterners , taking a more equivocal line on fracking than many other Democrats and branding the race ( relentlessly , in the final weeks ) as a contest @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and Park Avenue .
Primary voters often defended their preference for Biden by saying that he stood the best chance of any Democrat of winning back working-class Midwestern enclaves .
If he only partly succeeded , then what Democrat could ?
Democrats have long insisted that the future of American politics lies in increasingly educated , multiracial Sun Belt cities such as Atlanta , Houston , and Phoenix .
But for many Republicans the future may be embodied by Florida , which Trump has now won twice and where Republicans have held @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
That state has begun to hold out a new possibility—that the nation could become less white without becoming much less conservative .
On Tuesday night , Trump won the votes of Floridians without college degrees by four points with a campaign that focussed heavily on his opposition to the democratic-socialist left—to Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez , who Republicans claimed would set a Biden Administration ’ s agenda .
At the same time , in an interesting juxtaposition , a ballot measure that will raise Florida ’ s minimum wage to fifteen @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sixty per cent of the vote , winning even in conservative Florida counties like Polk , Pasco , and Sumter .
Not long ago , only socialists and trade-unionists were willing to get behind a fifteen-dollar-an-hour minimum wage .
You could look at numbers like these and think all that remains is for Republican politicians to follow the lead of their voters .
Easier said than done , of course—realignments are scarce in American politics , and Mitch McConnell , who has kept his Party focussed on a program of tax cuts for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ likely to retain power in the Senate .
But the results so far suggest again that Trumpism is here to stay , whatever becomes of Trump , and that the next version might have an even greater emphasis on nationalism , anti-cosmopolitanism , and perhaps a Hawley-style opposition to Silicon Valley .
( Last month , my colleague Nicholas Lemann outlined three possible possible paths for conservatism : this , which he called the Remnant , was one . )
On Wednesday morning , the Catholic conservative legal scholar Adrian Vermuele , of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will be multiracial , working class , socially conservative populism and I can ’ t wait.
” Hawley retweeted that .
Read More About the 2020 Election • Live election results : see the latest updates from the Presidential , Senate , House , and gubernatorial races .
• Biden may win , but Trump will remain the President of Red America .
• What happens if Trump fights the election results ?
• Early results suggest that the Electoral College race will be close , with no major realignment .
The Midwest @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The disbelief and horror of Election Night was captured by a Russian poet in 1933 .
• Trump has survived impeachment , twenty-six sexual-misconduct accusations , and thousands of lawsuits .
His luck may well end if Joe Biden wins .
• Here is what you can do if Trump stages a coup .
• Sign up for our daily newsletter for insight and analysis from our reporters and columnists .

At 10:53 P.M. on Tuesday, as it seemed clear that Donald Trump would win Florida while the rest of the electoral battlegrounds remained in doubt, the young Republican Senator Josh Hawley, of Missouri, tweeted, “We are a working class party now. That’s the future.”
Hawley has been making this case since shortly after he was elected to the Senate, in 2018, taking high-profile stances antagonistic to Silicon Valley and arguing for a conservatism oriented around an opposition to “cosmopolitan élites.” There was a lot of talk like this from young conservatives early in Trump’s term, and it could sound like an effort to flatter the President’s instincts. But, in Tuesday night’s results, the imprint of class was, if anything, clearer than it had been four years ago. Voters without college degrees continued to slide toward Republicans, and those with them, toward Democrats: according to exit polls, Joe Biden won college-educated voters by thirteen points. In the Midwest, even union ties may have done little to tether non-college-educated voters to Democrats. According to exit polls in Ohio, voters in union households favored Trump by fourteen points; those in non-union households favored him by just eight.
After 2016, many Democrats could, and did, argue that their struggles with working-class voters were due in part to their candidate, Hillary Clinton. That argument now seems less plausible: it is harder to blame the top of the ticket in 2016 or 2020. Among Biden’s most visible supporters on the campaign trail were members of the International Association of Fire Fighters, with whom he has long had a close political relationship. He was particularly attentive to issues and imagery thought to resonate with working-class Midwesterners, taking a more equivocal line on fracking than many other Democrats and branding the race (relentlessly, in the final weeks) as a contest between Scranton, where he was born, and Park Avenue. Primary voters often defended their preference for Biden by saying that he stood the best chance of any Democrat of winning back working-class Midwestern enclaves. If he only partly succeeded, then what Democrat could?
Democrats have long insisted that the future of American politics lies in increasingly educated, multiracial Sun Belt cities such as Atlanta, Houston, and Phoenix. But for many Republicans the future may be embodied by Florida, which Trump has now won twice and where Republicans have held the governor’s mansion since 1999. That state has begun to hold out a new possibility—that the nation could become less white without becoming much less conservative. On Tuesday night, Trump won the votes of Floridians without college degrees by four points with a campaign that focussed heavily on his opposition to the democratic-socialist left—to Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who Republicans claimed would set a Biden Administration’s agenda. At the same time, in an interesting juxtaposition, a ballot measure that will raise Florida’s minimum wage to fifteen dollars an hour passed with more than sixty per cent of the vote, winning even in conservative Florida counties like Polk, Pasco, and Sumter. Not long ago, only socialists and trade-unionists were willing to get behind a fifteen-dollar-an-hour minimum wage. You could look at numbers like these and think all that remains is for Republican politicians to follow the lead of their voters.
Easier said than done, of course—realignments are scarce in American politics, and Mitch McConnell, who has kept his Party focussed on a program of tax cuts for the wealthy for a decade, looks likely to retain power in the Senate. But the results so far suggest again that Trumpism is here to stay, whatever becomes of Trump, and that the next version might have an even greater emphasis on nationalism, anti-cosmopolitanism, and perhaps a Hawley-style opposition to Silicon Valley. (Last month, my colleague Nicholas Lemann outlined three possible possible paths for conservatism: this, which he called the Remnant, was one.) On Wednesday morning, the Catholic conservative legal scholar Adrian Vermuele, of Harvard, tweeted, “The future will be multiracial, working class, socially conservative populism and I can’t wait.” Hawley retweeted that.
Read More About the 2020 Election


newyorker--2020-11-04--Trump Asks Supreme Court to Rule That Wisconsin Is Not a State

WASHINGTON ( The Borowitz Report ) —Hinting darkly that “ there ’ s something going on , ” Donald J.
@ @ @ @ @ States Supreme Court to rule that Wisconsin is not a state .
“ I ’ @ @ @ @ @ coming out of Wisconsin , which is a rigged hoax claiming to be a state @ @ @ @ @ .
“ I think it ’ s disgraceful.
” When asked by a reporter to @ @ @ @ @ to the Union , in 1848 , Trump said , “ Show me one person @ @ @ @ @ You can ’ t , because they ’ re all dead .
That ’ s @ @ @ @ @ ” Trump also said that Wisconsin had no right to call itself “ the Badger @ @ @ @ @ all , it ’ s not a state , ” Trump said .
“ Second @ @ @ @ @ no badgers there .
I ’ ve been there many , many times and have @ @ @ @ @ Wisconsin should apologize to the entire badger race .
”

WASHINGTON (The Borowitz Report)—Hinting darkly that “there’s something going on,” Donald J. Trump has asked the United States Supreme Court to rule that Wisconsin is not a state.
“I’ve been hearing strange things coming out of Wisconsin, which is a rigged hoax claiming to be a state,” Trump told reporters. “I think it’s disgraceful.”
When asked by a reporter to explain Wisconsin’s admission to the Union, in 1848, Trump said, “Show me one person who saw that happen. You can’t, because they’re all dead. That’s very convenient and very cute.”
Trump also said that Wisconsin had no right to call itself “the Badger State.”
“First of all, it’s not a state,” Trump said. “Second of all, there are no badgers there. I’ve been there many, many times and have never seen a badger. Wisconsin should apologize to the entire badger race.”


Late-Night-Anxiety Book Club

Welcome !
If you ’ re here , that means you ’ ve either finished scrolling through your Instagram feed for multiple consecutive hours , or the two edibles you took still haven ’ t kicked in .
Thankfully , if our club is successful , you ’ ll be asleep in no time .
Let ’ s get reading !
Some Book on Mindfulness You Bought When You First Started Therapy ( 9 P.M. ) For a moment or two , you were able to forget the dark , beckoning abyss that is your subconscious , and relax .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
And then , sitting with this stillness , remembered every stupid thing you ’ ve ever said to anyone , and were quickly wide awake , once again .
Turns out , you didn ’ t totally understand how ovulation works .
Now , you ’ ve never been more in touch with your body .
A bit too in touch , honestly .
Still , you will consider paying an extra $ 15.99 a month for access to lectures such as , “ P.M.S .
: Fact or Fiction ?
” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Journal from Three Years Ago ( 11 P.M. ) This was a mistake .
You ’ ve barely accomplished anything on your 2017 New Year ’ s resolution list , and were deeply wrong about Greg .
Didn ’ t he just get married in San Diego to that surf instructor ?
But at least you finally bought a fancy food processor this year !
That is growth .
Also , this writing isn ’ t half bad .
If Greg can follow his dreams , so can you .
There were some @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this book made you realize that you will need more than spiritual guidance to actually fall asleep—you will need a miracle .
Turns out that a book about Nietzsche and eternal recurrence hits even harder when you read it in your childhood bed in the middle of a pandemic during a recession , surrounded by your old Grateful Dead posters .
Face it : You will never escape .
O.K.
, just spitballing here , but maybe you don ’ t need to read other books because you can write your own !
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ yet—you ’ ve got all the time in the world !
A Zillow Listing for an Eight-Million-Dollar Home You Will Never Be Able to Afford ( 3 A.M. ) French windows .
Original molding .
A walk-in closet .
This is the home that you will buy with your book advance !
Turns out no one is available to give a tour this early in the morning , but you can wait .
All your symptoms point to a pretty clear diagnosis , but you should probably stay up a little longer just @ @ @ @ @ @ @ so maybe writing a book is harder than you thought—but you can start smaller !
Like , a pamphlet of short poems or something !
People want that , right ?
Will resume writing soon .
Time to greet the day by clicking links about that squirrel in Tennessee that learned the Harlem Shake .
You can always sleep tomorrow !

Welcome! If you’re here, that means you’ve either finished scrolling through your Instagram feed for multiple consecutive hours, or the two edibles you took still haven’t kicked in. Thankfully, if our club is successful, you’ll be asleep in no time. Let’s get reading!
Some Book on Mindfulness You Bought When You First Started Therapy (9 P.M.)
For a moment or two, you were able to forget the dark, beckoning abyss that is your subconscious, and relax. You took some nice, deep breaths. And then, sitting with this stillness, remembered every stupid thing you’ve ever said to anyone, and were quickly wide awake, once again.
Your Menstrual Cycle Tracker (10 P.M.)
Turns out, you didn’t totally understand how ovulation works. Now, you’ve never been more in touch with your body. A bit too in touch, honestly. Still, you will consider paying an extra $15.99 a month for access to lectures such as, “P.M.S.: Fact or Fiction?” just to pass the time.
Your Journal from Three Years Ago (11 P.M.)
This was a mistake. You’ve barely accomplished anything on your 2017 New Year’s resolution list, and were deeply wrong about Greg. Didn’t he just get married in San Diego to that surf instructor? But at least you finally bought a fancy food processor this year! That is growth. Also, this writing isn’t half bad. If Greg can follow his dreams, so can you.
The Bible (12 A.M.)
There were some really great parts, but ultimately, this book made you realize that you will need more than spiritual guidance to actually fall asleep—you will need a miracle.
“The Unbearable Lightness of Being” (1 A.M.)
Turns out that a book about Nietzsche and eternal recurrence hits even harder when you read it in your childhood bed in the middle of a pandemic during a recession, surrounded by your old Grateful Dead posters. Face it: You will never escape.
Untitled Memoir Project (2 A.M.)
O.K., just spitballing here, but maybe you don’t need to read other books because you can write your own! The sun hasn’t even risen yet—you’ve got all the time in the world!
A Zillow Listing for an Eight-Million-Dollar Home You Will Never Be Able to Afford (3 A.M.)
French windows. Original molding. A walk-in closet. This is the home that you will buy with your book advance! Turns out no one is available to give a tour this early in the morning, but you can wait.
WebMD Article on Insomnia (4 A.M.)
All your symptoms point to a pretty clear diagnosis, but you should probably stay up a little longer just to be sure.
Wikipedia Article on Self-Publishing (5 A.M.)
All right, so maybe writing a book is harder than you thought—but you can start smaller! Like, a pamphlet of short poems or something! People want that, right?
Twitter.com (6 A.M.)
Will resume writing soon. Time to greet the day by clicking links about that squirrel in Tennessee that learned the Harlem Shake. You can always sleep tomorrow!


newyorker--2020-11-04--Trump’s Brief Speech from the White House Made America’s Troubles Worse

When Donald Trump came out to speak just before 2:30 A.M. on Wednesday , votes were still being counted in enough states—notably Georgia , Michigan , Pennsylvania , and Wisconsin—to make it impossible to say whether he or Joe Biden had won the Presidency .
But , whichever of them does , what Trump said in his brief remarks was a reminder of why he does not deserve the office .
Trump , standing in front of a phalanx of flags , claimed that the vote count had been “ called off ” because he won ; that is not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that his lead in those swing states was insurmountable , which is also false , and that when “ they ” —he didn ’ t really identify “ they , ” except as “ a very sad group of people ” —realized that he was winning , they had swooped in to perpetrate “ a fraud on the American public.
” In saying this , he was lying to the American public .
And when he told the country that there was a conspiracy afoot to “ disenfranchise ” people who voted for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ stand for it ” —he seemed to be willfully prodding his supporters toward violence .
Trump ’ s statement was squalid ; if the country is lucky , it is just a last indignity before he is defeated .
But , in those few minutes , he caused America ’ s troubles to multiply .
Even before he spoke , he had attacked the election ’ s integrity with a tweet : “ We are up BIG , but they are trying to STEAL the Election .
We will never let them do @ @ @ @ @ @ @ after the Polls are closed !
” Twitter attached a warning that the tweet was “ disputed ” and might be providing “ misleading ” information about civic processes , which is a kind way of putting it .
Trump sent that tweet after Biden had made a confident but cautious statement , noting , “ It ’ s not my place or Donald Trump ’ s place to declare who won the election , ” but that of the American people .
Perhaps that idea is what made Trump mad .
There @ @ @ @ @ @ @ these states couldn ’ t yet be called .
Thanks to the coronavirus pandemic , which Trump has failed to control , there were millions more absentee and mail-in ballots than is usually the case .
When Trump spoke , Pennsylvania still had one and a half million of those ballots to count .
Under the state ’ s rules , election officials could not begin to process them until Tuesday .
Normally , Pennsylvania requires that mail-in ballots arrive by Election Day ; because of Postal Service delays , the state Supreme @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be counted as long as they are postmarked by Election Day and arrive by Friday .
Pennsylvania Republicans have been fighting that order , and the U.S. Supreme Court may yet intervene—but that is a separate issue from the mountain of ballots that have already arrived but have not been counted , and must be .
Trump claimed that he was winning the state by “ a tremendous amount .
.
.
.
These aren ’ t even close.
” Not yet : although Trump ’ s lead in Pennsylvania in the early-morning @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was not insurmountable .
The same was true of Wisconsin and Michigan , a state about which Trump said , “ I looked at the numbers and said , ‘ Whoa !
’ ” The races in Georgia and North Carolina were extremely close as well .
He may have won all of them or none of them .
That is the mundane and glorious thing about democracy : you have to wait and see how it turns out .
And his speech was , as usual , a mess of contradictions .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ , ” while also declaring that he would be going to the Supreme Court , because “ we want all voting to stop.
” There is no principle here .
What Trump wants is for election officials to stop counting votes that do not favor him , and to make sure to count the ones that do .
He has spent the past couple of weeks insisting , during rallies and on Twitter , that vote-counting should stop on November 3rd—thus disenfranchising anyone whose duly cast ballot hadn ’ t been tallied by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , he said , “ We don ’ t want them to find any ballots at four o ’ clock in the morning and add them ” —and yet , at the same time , he objected to the decision that “ somebody ” had made to call Arizona for Biden , because there were still “ a lot of votes out there.
” ( “ Somebody ” was Fox News . )
Arizona hurt because it is a state that Trump won in 2016 .
Biden was helped there by Mark Kelly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ went into politics after his wife , the former Representative Gabrielle Giffords , was shot in the head and nearly died , in a mass shooting in 2011 ; she still bears the effects of her injuries .
He defeated Senator Martha McSally , who was appointed to fill John McCain ’ s seat after his death and who has increasingly aligned herself with Trump .
Her campaign relied on innuendo and invective , and Kelly ’ s victory was a bright spot in an evening that was more difficult than Democrats had @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Republican incumbent , Cory Gardner , in the Colorado Senate race , but the Democratic incumbent Doug Jones lost to Tommy Tuberville , the former Auburn football coach , in Alabama , and , as of Wednesday morning , it seemed doubtful that Democrats could gain control of the Senate .
Their remaining hopes may rest with a runoff in Georgia , in January .
But the most unsettling section of Trump ’ s speech , in thinking about the days and possibly weeks of uncertainty to come , was his rendition of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ d had with Governor Greg Abbott , of Texas .
Abbott , Trump said , “ called me to congratulate me on winning Texas ” —Trump ’ s anecdotes often involve people calling to congratulate him , typically unnamed foreign potentates or New York businessmen .
But Abbott , Trump claimed , was puzzled , and said , “ By the way , what ’ s going on ?
I ’ ve never seen anything like this.
” Trump replied , “ Can I tell you what ?
Nobody has.
” He then @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , had been closing in on victory , “ and all of a sudden I said , ‘ What happened to the election ?
It ’ s off.
’ And we have all these announcers saying , ‘ What happened ?
’ And then they said , ‘ Oh.
’ ” One implication was that the “ announcers ” realized that action needed to be taken to snatch the election from Trump , and that they stood ready to do their part—the media being enemies of the people .
But there is another @ @ @ @ @ @ @ elected officials need to take very seriously .
In the days to come , Trump will be regaling the public with stories about how much this senator or that governor agrees with him , and how much they share his belief that the election process has been corrupted .
This means that , if they don ’ t agree with him , they are , at last , going to have to say so .
They will need to decide if they are still willing , at this most hazardous juncture , to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was it even in Trump ’ s own interest to say such things ?
When he spoke , there was a fair chance that he was the legitimate winner ; by the morning , Biden ’ s chances had improved , but the results are much closer than the polling had suggested .
( Trump ’ s continued hold on the votes and imaginations of so many Americans suggests that his Presidency represents not just a tragedy but a national crisis of character . )
There is , no doubt , a tactical @ @ @ @ @ @ @ trying to position himself for court fights , to intimidate local officials , and to create confusion that he can exploit .
And he may have been confused himself ; he has such a habit of lobbing accusations and encouraging divisions that he may not know how else to react .
But part of the answer is that his petulance and narcissism are boundless .
He complained , in his speech , that “ we were getting ready for a big celebration ” when it became clear that the closely contested states might @ @ @ @ @ @ @ He wanted a party , but some exhausted county officials in Georgia and Pennsylvania were pausing for a few hours ’ sleep .
Trump ’ s autocratic impulses and his impatience work together in disastrous ways .
He needs to learn how to wait , and—if that ’ s what the voters say—how to lose .
Read More About the 2020 Election • Live election results : see the latest updates from the Presidential , Senate , House , and gubernatorial races .
• The New Yorker endorses a Biden Presidency .
What @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
• Donald Trump has survived impeachment , twenty-six accusations of sexual misconduct , and thousands of lawsuits .
His luck may well end if Joe Biden wins .
• What happens if Trump fights the election results ?
• Here is what you can do if Trump stages a coup .
• To understand the path Trump has taken to the 2020 election , look at what he has provided the executive class .
• The refusal by Mitch McConnell to rein in Trump is looking riskier than ever .
• Sign @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and analysis from our reporters and columnists .

When Donald Trump came out to speak just before 2:30 A.M. on Wednesday, votes were still being counted in enough states—notably Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—to make it impossible to say whether he or Joe Biden had won the Presidency. But, whichever of them does, what Trump said in his brief remarks was a reminder of why he does not deserve the office. Trump, standing in front of a phalanx of flags, claimed that the vote count had been “called off” because he won; that is not true on either count. He said that his lead in those swing states was insurmountable, which is also false, and that when “they”—he didn’t really identify “they,” except as “a very sad group of people”—realized that he was winning, they had swooped in to perpetrate “a fraud on the American public.” In saying this, he was lying to the American public. And when he told the country that there was a conspiracy afoot to “disenfranchise” people who voted for him—adding, “We won’t stand for it”—he seemed to be willfully prodding his supporters toward violence. Trump’s statement was squalid; if the country is lucky, it is just a last indignity before he is defeated. But, in those few minutes, he caused America’s troubles to multiply.
Even before he spoke, he had attacked the election’s integrity with a tweet: “We are up BIG, but they are trying to STEAL the Election. We will never let them do it. Votes cannot be cast after the Polls are closed!” Twitter attached a warning that the tweet was “disputed” and might be providing “misleading” information about civic processes, which is a kind way of putting it. Trump sent that tweet after Biden had made a confident but cautious statement, noting, “It’s not my place or Donald Trump’s place to declare who won the election,” but that of the American people. Perhaps that idea is what made Trump mad.
There is nothing strange about the fact that these states couldn’t yet be called. Thanks to the coronavirus pandemic, which Trump has failed to control, there were millions more absentee and mail-in ballots than is usually the case. When Trump spoke, Pennsylvania still had one and a half million of those ballots to count. Under the state’s rules, election officials could not begin to process them until Tuesday. Normally, Pennsylvania requires that mail-in ballots arrive by Election Day; because of Postal Service delays, the state Supreme Court issued a decision allowing ballots to be counted as long as they are postmarked by Election Day and arrive by Friday. Pennsylvania Republicans have been fighting that order, and the U.S. Supreme Court may yet intervene—but that is a separate issue from the mountain of ballots that have already arrived but have not been counted, and must be. Trump claimed that he was winning the state by “a tremendous amount. . . . These aren’t even close.” Not yet: although Trump’s lead in Pennsylvania in the early-morning hours of Wednesday was substantial, it was not insurmountable. The same was true of Wisconsin and Michigan, a state about which Trump said, “I looked at the numbers and said, ‘Whoa!’ ” The races in Georgia and North Carolina were extremely close as well. He may have won all of them or none of them. That is the mundane and glorious thing about democracy: you have to wait and see how it turns out.
And his speech was, as usual, a mess of contradictions. Trump complained that “everything just stopped,” while also declaring that he would be going to the Supreme Court, because “we want all voting to stop.” There is no principle here. What Trump wants is for election officials to stop counting votes that do not favor him, and to make sure to count the ones that do. He has spent the past couple of weeks insisting, during rallies and on Twitter, that vote-counting should stop on November 3rd—thus disenfranchising anyone whose duly cast ballot hadn’t been tallied by then. In his remarks on Wednesday, he said, “We don’t want them to find any ballots at four o’clock in the morning and add them”—and yet, at the same time, he objected to the decision that “somebody” had made to call Arizona for Biden, because there were still “a lot of votes out there.” (“Somebody” was Fox News.)
Arizona hurt because it is a state that Trump won in 2016. Biden was helped there by Mark Kelly’s successful Senate campaign. Kelly went into politics after his wife, the former Representative Gabrielle Giffords, was shot in the head and nearly died, in a mass shooting in 2011; she still bears the effects of her injuries. He defeated Senator Martha McSally, who was appointed to fill John McCain’s seat after his death and who has increasingly aligned herself with Trump. Her campaign relied on innuendo and invective, and Kelly’s victory was a bright spot in an evening that was more difficult than Democrats had hoped. John Hickenlooper also defeated the Republican incumbent, Cory Gardner, in the Colorado Senate race, but the Democratic incumbent Doug Jones lost to Tommy Tuberville, the former Auburn football coach, in Alabama, and, as of Wednesday morning, it seemed doubtful that Democrats could gain control of the Senate. Their remaining hopes may rest with a runoff in Georgia, in January.
But the most unsettling section of Trump’s speech, in thinking about the days and possibly weeks of uncertainty to come, was his rendition of a conversation he said that he’d had with Governor Greg Abbott, of Texas. Abbott, Trump said, “called me to congratulate me on winning Texas”—Trump’s anecdotes often involve people calling to congratulate him, typically unnamed foreign potentates or New York businessmen. But Abbott, Trump claimed, was puzzled, and said, “By the way, what’s going on? I’ve never seen anything like this.” Trump replied, “Can I tell you what? Nobody has.” He then gave his explanation: he, Trump, had been closing in on victory, “and all of a sudden I said, ‘What happened to the election? It’s off.’ And we have all these announcers saying, ‘What happened?’ And then they said, ‘Oh.’ ” One implication was that the “announcers” realized that action needed to be taken to snatch the election from Trump, and that they stood ready to do their part—the media being enemies of the people. But there is another message here that Abbott and other Republican elected officials need to take very seriously. In the days to come, Trump will be regaling the public with stories about how much this senator or that governor agrees with him, and how much they share his belief that the election process has been corrupted. This means that, if they don’t agree with him, they are, at last, going to have to say so. They will need to decide if they are still willing, at this most hazardous juncture, to be his props and enablers.
Why was it even in Trump’s own interest to say such things? When he spoke, there was a fair chance that he was the legitimate winner; by the morning, Biden’s chances had improved, but the results are much closer than the polling had suggested. (Trump’s continued hold on the votes and imaginations of so many Americans suggests that his Presidency represents not just a tragedy but a national crisis of character.) There is, no doubt, a tactical aspect to Trump’s rhetoric—he is trying to position himself for court fights, to intimidate local officials, and to create confusion that he can exploit. And he may have been confused himself; he has such a habit of lobbing accusations and encouraging divisions that he may not know how else to react. But part of the answer is that his petulance and narcissism are boundless. He complained, in his speech, that “we were getting ready for a big celebration” when it became clear that the closely contested states might not yet have a full count. He wanted a party, but some exhausted county officials in Georgia and Pennsylvania were pausing for a few hours’ sleep. Trump’s autocratic impulses and his impatience work together in disastrous ways. He needs to learn how to wait, and—if that’s what the voters say—how to lose.
Read More About the 2020 Election


newyorker--2020-11-04--Cincinnati Bengals Announce That They Have Won Super Bowl

CINCINNATI ( The Borowitz Report ) —In an early-morning victory statement that took many in the N.F.L .
by surprise @ @ @ @ @ declared themselves the winners of next February ’ s Super Bowl .
The declaration of @ @ @ @ @ controversy , in no small part because sixty minutes of the sixty-minute-long contest have yet @ @ @ @ @ the Bengals remained defiant , arguing that no touchdowns , extra points , field goals @ @ @ @ @ their announcement should count .
“ As far as we ’ re concerned , we @ @ @ @ @ ” the Bengals said .

CINCINNATI (The Borowitz Report)—In an early-morning victory statement that took many in the N.F.L. by surprise, the Cincinnati Bengals have declared themselves the winners of next February’s Super Bowl.
The declaration of victory seemed designed to stir controversy, in no small part because sixty minutes of the sixty-minute-long contest have yet to be played.
But the Bengals remained defiant, arguing that no touchdowns, extra points, field goals, or safeties scored after their announcement should count.
“As far as we’re concerned, we’ve already won,” the Bengals said.


newyorker--2020-11-04--Alternatives to National Novel Writing Month

National Nah , You ’ re Not Gon na Write That Much This Month Month National But Everyone Else Is Doing a Thing So Maybe You Should , Too , Month National Amnesia About What Happened Last Year When You Attempted to Write Sixteen Hundred Words Per Day Month National But This Year Will Probably Be Different Because You Can Just Prop Up a Mannequin Dressed Like You for Zoom Thanksgiving and Still Get Your Word Count in Month National You Made Your Word Count for Day One !
Month National Unfortunately , You Did Not Make Your Word Count @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Unrealistic Goal at the Beginning of the Month That You Will Fail to Meet by the Fifth Day of the Month Month National Take Up Watching Birds Outside Your Window to Avoid Writing Month National It ’ s Hard to Write When It ’ s Dark by 5 P.M. and Your Seasonal Depression Is Really Hitting Its Stride Month National Listen to the National While Panicking About What That Bird You ’ ve Been Watching Will Do for the Winter Months Month National Should You Continue to Feed the Bird or Is That @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to Find Its Own Food ?
Month National Well , Birds Did Evolve from Dinosaurs , so They Have Probably Survived Worse Month National Some Things May Actually Be Better if They Take More Than a Month to Produce Month National How Was It Even Possible for That Person on Twitter to Write Four Thousand Words Today ?
Month National Do You Even Want to Be a Novelist , or Are You Just Doing This to Avoid the Screenplay You Still Haven ’ t Finished ?
Month National , Yes , That Bird @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Out Your Utensil Drawer to Avoid Writing Month National Is a Pandemic Really a Great Time to Work on Your Navel-Gazey Novel ?
Month National Who Decided That a Month with Two National Holidays That Doesn ’ t Even Have Thirty-one Days in It Would Be a Good Time to Try to Write an Entire Book ?
Month National Turns Out Zoom Thanksgiving Is Still Kind of Draining Month National Maybe You Can Somehow Catch Up and Write Forty-five Thousand Words in Three Days Month National It ’ s O.K .
That This @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Seems Like You Really Want to Be Writing a Book About Birds Month

National Nah, You’re Not Gonna Write That Much This Month Month
National But Everyone Else Is Doing a Thing So Maybe You Should, Too, Month
National Amnesia About What Happened Last Year When You Attempted to Write Sixteen Hundred Words Per Day Month
National But This Year Will Probably Be Different Because You Can Just Prop Up a Mannequin Dressed Like You for Zoom Thanksgiving and Still Get Your Word Count in Month
National You Made Your Word Count for Day One! Month
National Unfortunately, You Did Not Make Your Word Count for Day Two Month
National Set an Unrealistic Goal at the Beginning of the Month That You Will Fail to Meet by the Fifth Day of the Month Month
National Take Up Watching Birds Outside Your Window to Avoid Writing Month
National It’s Hard to Write When It’s Dark by 5 P.M. and Your Seasonal Depression Is Really Hitting Its Stride Month
National Listen to the National While Panicking About What That Bird You’ve Been Watching Will Do for the Winter Months Month
National Should You Continue to Feed the Bird or Is That Ruining Its Will to Migrate and Ability to Find Its Own Food? Month
National Well, Birds Did Evolve from Dinosaurs, so They Have Probably Survived Worse Month
National Write an Original Broadway Musical Month
National Build a Rocket Month
National Some Things May Actually Be Better if They Take More Than a Month to Produce Month
National How Was It Even Possible for That Person on Twitter to Write Four Thousand Words Today? Month
National Writer’s Envy Month
National Do You Even Want to Be a Novelist, or Are You Just Doing This to Avoid the Screenplay You Still Haven’t Finished? Month
National, Yes, That Bird Does Know You’re Only Cleaning Out Your Utensil Drawer to Avoid Writing Month
National Is a Pandemic Really a Great Time to Work on Your Navel-Gazey Novel? Month
National Who Decided That a Month with Two National Holidays That Doesn’t Even Have Thirty-one Days in It Would Be a Good Time to Try to Write an Entire Book? Month
National Turns Out Zoom Thanksgiving Is Still Kind of Draining Month
National Maybe You Can Somehow Catch Up and Write Forty-five Thousand Words in Three Days Month
National New Candidate for Actual Cruelest Month Month
National It’s O.K. That This Didn’t Work Out Because It Seems Like You Really Want to Be Writing a Book About Birds Month


newyorker--2020-11-04--Biden May Win, but Trump Remains the President of Red America

But not yet .
The 2020 election—which Democrats waited four years for , since the stunning 2016 upset that made Trump President , in a quirk of Electoral College math—was not the Election Night knockout that Biden wanted it to be .
The contest between Biden and Trump remains too close to call , and although Biden may yet end it , even definitively so , the spectre of days or even weeks of post-election legal confrontation that Trump has threatened may now come to pass .
Trump spent the run-up to Election Day preëmptively undermining the results .
He @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in American history and the most crooked—unless he won outright .
Before any votes were counted , he called it a “ Rigged Election !
” He has repeated this outrageous claim nearly two hundred times since August , according to Factba.se , which tracks all of Trump ’ s public statements .
The closer we got to the election , the more he said it .
But the night is now over , and Trump has not been declared the winner .
Will he bring on the whirlwind that he had promised @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to find out the answer : the President ’ s dangerous rhetoric was , in fact , a self-fulfilling prophecy .
Before 1 A.M. , with an apparent break toward Biden in Arizona , and with the former Vice-President telling car-honking supporters at a drive-in rally in Delaware that “ we ’ re on track to win this election , ” Trump attacked the results even before they were formalized .
“ They are trying to STEAL the Election , ” he tweeted .
“ We will never let them do it .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ Poles are closed !
” Soon after 2:20 A.M. , Trump spoke to supporters in the White House , where he was even more explicit that he will follow through on his threats .
He declared that he won , and said that he will go to the Supreme Court to stop the millions of votes that are still being counted .
“ This is a fraud on the American public , ” Trump claimed , with no evidence at all to back it up .
The worst-case scenarios , tragically , seem @ @ @ @ @ @ @ should have come to this .
After nearly four years of Trump ’ s divisiveness and incompetence , the country has been beset by truly grave crises in 2020 .
With a deadly pandemic raging and an attendant economic catastrophe , more than seventy per cent of Americans said , in the latest Gallup poll , that they believed the country was headed in the wrong direction .
In a previous era , Trump might have suffered a historic repudiation for what has happened to the nation on his watch .
Yet Trump @ @ @ @ @ @ @ base never collapsed , and on the eve of the election almost every conceivable outcome was still possible , from a narrow Trump victory to a Biden landslide .
The final poll averages had Biden finishing stronger than Hillary Clinton did four years ago , both nationally and in the battleground states , but only narrowly .
In its final preëlection forecast , FiveThirtyEight gave the former Vice-President an eighty-nine-per-cent chance of an Electoral College victory .
But , although it was highly likely that Biden would win , it was not impossible @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Tuesday night , the key states were largely the same as they have been since 2016 : Arizona , Florida , Michigan , Pennsylvania , Wisconsin .
If Biden could manage to take back just Michigan , Pennsylvania , and Wisconsin—the three states that won Trump the Presidency , by little more than seventy thousand votes between them—the race would be over .
That Biden , in the weeks before the election , decided to compete aggressively in previously solid Trump territories , including Georgia , North Carolina , Ohio , and Texas @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s campaign has been on the defensive these past few months .
And yet , win or lose , Trump will almost certainly have commanded support from well over forty per cent of the American electorate .
He might even end up with more popular votes than he had four years ago .
He held on to Florida , Ohio , and Texas .
His base has followed him through impeachment and family separation , his “ love ” letters with North Korea ’ s brutal dictator and even his coronavirus denialism .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ of a constitutional confrontation between now and January 20th , we have to assume that they will follow him there as well .
Trump was always a minority President , governing for part of the country in opposition to the rest of it .
The shock of his 2016 election upset became its own political rationale and , ultimately , for Trump , the blueprint for his reëlection plan .
Why do something different when he had defied everyone and won the first time ?
When the final votes are counted , they @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s popular-vote margin of 2.87 million , and yet Trump believed until the end that nothing mattered except keeping the support of his Republican base .
He may turn out to have been wrong , but it will have been a much , much closer call for American democracy than it should have been .
And , even without final results , we can already say that there are still two Americas , and that Trump , despite the catastrophes of his rule , has retained the loyalty of the vast majority @ @ @ @ @ @ @ end , it wasn ’ t about the polls being right or wrong , though they certainly appeared to be off in some key states .
It was about the uncertainty of a painfully divided country—perhaps the defining characteristic of Washington , and American politics more broadly , in the Trump years .
Trump ’ s incessant questioning of the basic institutions of our government and electoral system has now produced his desired result , even if he may not be back for another four years : a superpower torn apart from within @ @ @ @ @ @ @ democracy .
There have been many times , over the past four years , that covering Trump ’ s Washington felt like a foreign assignment to me , never more so than while driving around the capital these past few days and seeing boarded-up storefronts and streets cordoned off for blocks around the White House , in anticipation of unprecedented post-election violence .
I have seen such scenes before , in places like Azerbaijan and Russia .
This is Trump ’ s America .
It is not the America I have known .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ one thing so far : the anxiety and uncertainty of this election season will extend into a post-election struggle , possibly a protracted one , with potential consequences for our democracy that go well beyond the narrow questions of when Pennsylvania ’ s absentee ballots will finally be counted and why suburban women in the Midwest appear to have soured on Trump so much more than Latinos in South Florida .
We may get results soon from Pennsylvania , Michigan , and Wisconsin , but Trump has already said that he will not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ defeat is in fact what it looks like .
Indeed , Trump , at his early-morning appearance at the White House , flat-out claimed already to be winning all three states , and suggested that votes should not continue to be counted , although there is no evidence at all that the outstanding ballots were not legally cast .
Will his fight last until December 8th , the “ safe harbor ” date by which states are supposed to have their results finalized ?
Until December 14th , when the Electoral College is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ until noon on January 20th , when the next President will be sworn in at the Capitol ?
Even before the election , the contours of the Republicans ’ post-election strategy were clear : to disrupt the counting , to insure as few votes as possible in Democratic areas were cast , to claim there was widespread fraud .
The goal was to get into court and sue , and Trump , saying the quiet part out loud , as is his habit , even admitted it over the weekend , declaring that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ we ’ re going in with our lawyers.
” On Sunday , Benjamin L. Ginsberg , for a generation the leading Republican election attorney , took the extraordinary step of denouncing this strategy , in an op-ed for the Washington Post .
By Ginsberg ’ s count , the Trump campaign and the G.O.P .
had already filed more than forty lawsuits around the country before the election , challenging various local and state-level voting and ballot measures , every single one of which had the goal of limiting the vote in some @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s claims of widespread fraud were being amplified by a Republican Party that knows they aren ’ t true but insists on promoting this “ Loch Ness Monster ” of a story anyway .
“ My party is destroying itself on the Altar of Trump , ” he warned .
Whatever happens in the courts , Trump is all but certain to be his own vortex of uncertainty over the next couple of months , until the Inauguration , and that will be true even after there is a decisive resolution .
A @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Trump had already signalled before the election that he might fire a long list of officials in his government whom he views as insufficiently loyal or willing to go along with his orders .
These include the director of the F.B.I.
, Christopher Wray ; the Attorney General , William Barr ; the director of the C.I.A.
, Gina Haspel ; and , even in the midst of the pandemic , the nation ’ s top infectious-disease expert , Dr. Anthony Fauci .
He could seek to fire them even if he loses @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
He could do it tomorrow .
How do we know this ?
This is exactly what he did after the Republicans ’ midterm-election loss in November of 2018 ; he fired his Attorney General , Jeff Sessions , the very next day .
Vengeance is not the only danger that lies ahead .
Even defeated , Trump could use his executive powers to wreak significant additional damages before January 20th .
He could break norms and traditions even more than he has already , and pardon his family , friends , cronies—even @ @ @ @ @ @ @ undermine public confidence in a coronavirus vaccine , or stop the government ’ s fight against it altogether .
There are many scenarios for the havoc we might see , and they are very much consistent with Trump ’ s Presidency so far .
The truth is that , at every step along the way , he has been willing to say and do the previously unthinkable in American politics .
He has cheered dictators such as Vladimir Putin and asked foreign countries to help him defeat Joe Biden .
He has lied @ @ @ @ @ @ @ more than twenty thousand of his falsehoods and misstatements .
He has personally profited from the Presidency , and he has abdicated “ any responsibility at all ” for his government ’ s failed response to a pandemic that has already left more than two hundred and thirty thousand Americans dead .
So the question now is not how far he will go to remain in office—the past four years have definitively answered that—but whether there is anyone left to stop him , as America enters the dangerous uncertainty of an election that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Read More About the 2020 Election • Live election results : see the latest updates from the Presidential , Senate , House , and gubernatorial races .
• The New Yorker endorses a Biden Presidency .
What he must do to repair our democracy .
• Donald Trump has survived impeachment , twenty-six accusations of sexual misconduct , and thousands of lawsuits .
His luck may well end if Joe Biden wins .
• What happens if Trump fights the election results ?
• Here is what you can do if Trump stages @ @ @ @ @ @ @ path Trump has taken to the 2020 election , look at what he has provided the executive class .
• The refusal by Mitch McConnell to rein in Trump is looking riskier than ever .
• Sign up for our daily newsletter for insight and analysis from our reporters and columnists .

For months, Joe Biden has been campaigning with endless variations on a simple theme: vote and we can end this. We can end the craziness, the incompetence, the sheer exhausting daily spectacle that has been the Presidency of Donald John Trump. “I promise you this,” Biden said the other day. “I’ll end Donald Trump’s chaos and end this crisis.”
But not yet. The 2020 election—which Democrats waited four years for, since the stunning 2016 upset that made Trump President, in a quirk of Electoral College math—was not the Election Night knockout that Biden wanted it to be. The contest between Biden and Trump remains too close to call, and although Biden may yet end it, even definitively so, the spectre of days or even weeks of post-election legal confrontation that Trump has threatened may now come to pass.
Trump spent the run-up to Election Day preëmptively undermining the results. He declared the contest both the most important in American history and the most crooked—unless he won outright. Before any votes were counted, he called it a “Rigged Election!” He has repeated this outrageous claim nearly two hundred times since August, according to Factba.se, which tracks all of Trump’s public statements. The closer we got to the election, the more he said it. But the night is now over, and Trump has not been declared the winner. Will he bring on the whirlwind that he had promised? It only took a few hours to find out the answer: the President’s dangerous rhetoric was, in fact, a self-fulfilling prophecy. Before 1 A.M., with an apparent break toward Biden in Arizona, and with the former Vice-President telling car-honking supporters at a drive-in rally in Delaware that “we’re on track to win this election,” Trump attacked the results even before they were formalized. “They are trying to STEAL the Election,” he tweeted. “We will never let them do it. Votes cannot be cast after the Poles are closed!” Soon after 2:20 A.M., Trump spoke to supporters in the White House, where he was even more explicit that he will follow through on his threats. He declared that he won, and said that he will go to the Supreme Court to stop the millions of votes that are still being counted. “This is a fraud on the American public,” Trump claimed, with no evidence at all to back it up. The worst-case scenarios, tragically, seem to be coming true.
It never should have come to this. After nearly four years of Trump’s divisiveness and incompetence, the country has been beset by truly grave crises in 2020. With a deadly pandemic raging and an attendant economic catastrophe, more than seventy per cent of Americans said, in the latest Gallup poll, that they believed the country was headed in the wrong direction. In a previous era, Trump might have suffered a historic repudiation for what has happened to the nation on his watch. Yet Trump’s support from the Republican Party base never collapsed, and on the eve of the election almost every conceivable outcome was still possible, from a narrow Trump victory to a Biden landslide. The final poll averages had Biden finishing stronger than Hillary Clinton did four years ago, both nationally and in the battleground states, but only narrowly. In its final preëlection forecast, FiveThirtyEight gave the former Vice-President an eighty-nine-per-cent chance of an Electoral College victory. But, although it was highly likely that Biden would win, it was not impossible that he would lose.
Heading into Tuesday night, the key states were largely the same as they have been since 2016: Arizona, Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin. If Biden could manage to take back just Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—the three states that won Trump the Presidency, by little more than seventy thousand votes between them—the race would be over. That Biden, in the weeks before the election, decided to compete aggressively in previously solid Trump territories, including Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas, only underscored how much Trump’s campaign has been on the defensive these past few months. And yet, win or lose, Trump will almost certainly have commanded support from well over forty per cent of the American electorate. He might even end up with more popular votes than he had four years ago. He held on to Florida, Ohio, and Texas. His base has followed him through impeachment and family separation, his “love” letters with North Korea’s brutal dictator and even his coronavirus denialism. If he leads them over the cliff of a constitutional confrontation between now and January 20th, we have to assume that they will follow him there as well.
Trump was always a minority President, governing for part of the country in opposition to the rest of it. The shock of his 2016 election upset became its own political rationale and, ultimately, for Trump, the blueprint for his reëlection plan. Why do something different when he had defied everyone and won the first time? When the final votes are counted, they will almost surely show Biden surpassing Clinton’s popular-vote margin of 2.87 million, and yet Trump believed until the end that nothing mattered except keeping the support of his Republican base. He may turn out to have been wrong, but it will have been a much, much closer call for American democracy than it should have been. And, even without final results, we can already say that there are still two Americas, and that Trump, despite the catastrophes of his rule, has retained the loyalty of the vast majority of red America—his America.
In the end, it wasn’t about the polls being right or wrong, though they certainly appeared to be off in some key states. It was about the uncertainty of a painfully divided country—perhaps the defining characteristic of Washington, and American politics more broadly, in the Trump years. Trump’s incessant questioning of the basic institutions of our government and electoral system has now produced his desired result, even if he may not be back for another four years: a superpower torn apart from within, no longer trusting of its own democracy. There have been many times, over the past four years, that covering Trump’s Washington felt like a foreign assignment to me, never more so than while driving around the capital these past few days and seeing boarded-up storefronts and streets cordoned off for blocks around the White House, in anticipation of unprecedented post-election violence. I have seen such scenes before, in places like Azerbaijan and Russia. This is Trump’s America. It is not the America I have known.
So what now? We can say one thing so far: the anxiety and uncertainty of this election season will extend into a post-election struggle, possibly a protracted one, with potential consequences for our democracy that go well beyond the narrow questions of when Pennsylvania’s absentee ballots will finally be counted and why suburban women in the Midwest appear to have soured on Trump so much more than Latinos in South Florida. We may get results soon from Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, but Trump has already said that he will not accept defeat in those states, if defeat is in fact what it looks like. Indeed, Trump, at his early-morning appearance at the White House, flat-out claimed already to be winning all three states, and suggested that votes should not continue to be counted, although there is no evidence at all that the outstanding ballots were not legally cast. Will his fight last until December 8th, the “safe harbor” date by which states are supposed to have their results finalized? Until December 14th, when the Electoral College is supposed to meet? All the way until noon on January 20th, when the next President will be sworn in at the Capitol?
Even before the election, the contours of the Republicans’ post-election strategy were clear: to disrupt the counting, to insure as few votes as possible in Democratic areas were cast, to claim there was widespread fraud. The goal was to get into court and sue, and Trump, saying the quiet part out loud, as is his habit, even admitted it over the weekend, declaring that as soon as the election ends “we’re going in with our lawyers.” On Sunday, Benjamin L. Ginsberg, for a generation the leading Republican election attorney, took the extraordinary step of denouncing this strategy, in an op-ed for the Washington Post. By Ginsberg’s count, the Trump campaign and the G.O.P. had already filed more than forty lawsuits around the country before the election, challenging various local and state-level voting and ballot measures, every single one of which had the goal of limiting the vote in some way. Ginsberg said that Trump’s claims of widespread fraud were being amplified by a Republican Party that knows they aren’t true but insists on promoting this “Loch Ness Monster” of a story anyway. “My party is destroying itself on the Altar of Trump,” he warned.
Whatever happens in the courts, Trump is all but certain to be his own vortex of uncertainty over the next couple of months, until the Inauguration, and that will be true even after there is a decisive resolution. A vengeance-seeker in the best of times, Trump had already signalled before the election that he might fire a long list of officials in his government whom he views as insufficiently loyal or willing to go along with his orders. These include the director of the F.B.I., Christopher Wray; the Attorney General, William Barr; the director of the C.I.A., Gina Haspel; and, even in the midst of the pandemic, the nation’s top infectious-disease expert, Dr. Anthony Fauci. He could seek to fire them even if he loses, or perhaps especially if he does. He could do it tomorrow. How do we know this? This is exactly what he did after the Republicans’ midterm-election loss in November of 2018; he fired his Attorney General, Jeff Sessions, the very next day.
Vengeance is not the only danger that lies ahead. Even defeated, Trump could use his executive powers to wreak significant additional damages before January 20th. He could break norms and traditions even more than he has already, and pardon his family, friends, cronies—even, potentially, himself. He could undermine public confidence in a coronavirus vaccine, or stop the government’s fight against it altogether. There are many scenarios for the havoc we might see, and they are very much consistent with Trump’s Presidency so far.
The truth is that, at every step along the way, he has been willing to say and do the previously unthinkable in American politics. He has cheered dictators such as Vladimir Putin and asked foreign countries to help him defeat Joe Biden. He has lied so much that the Washington Post recorded more than twenty thousand of his falsehoods and misstatements. He has personally profited from the Presidency, and he has abdicated “any responsibility at all” for his government’s failed response to a pandemic that has already left more than two hundred and thirty thousand Americans dead.
So the question now is not how far he will go to remain in office—the past four years have definitively answered that—but whether there is anyone left to stop him, as America enters the dangerous uncertainty of an election that does not yet have a winner.
Read More About the 2020 Election


newyorker--2020-11-04--The Fight Over Election Results Begins

The Fight Over Election Results Begins

“ Your patience is commendable !
” Joe Biden told supporters in a parking lot , at about a quarter to one in the morning .
His motorcade had travelled from his home to the Chase Center , in Wilmington , so that he could give not a victory speech but a placeholder .
“ We believe we ’ re on track to win this election , ” Biden told the crowd , many of whom remained parked in their cars .
They honked back , and then Biden quoted , a little selectively , from recent developments on television @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ d won Arizona , and a larger group of media outlets had said that he ’ d won Minnesota .
Biden said that he was optimistic about Wisconsin and Michigan , and confident that Pennsylvania and ultimately the Presidency would be in his column .
He sounded confident , too , breaking now and then into a big toothy grin .
Biden said , “ It ain ’ t over until every vote is counted , every ballot is counted .
But we ’ re feeling good.
” It may emerge , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pandemic , as expected , swung the election decisively toward Biden , but for the moment it seems to have added layers of uncertainty to the outcome , as county officials continue sorting millions of mail-in ballots .
Michigan and Wisconsin were still counting votes early Wednesday morning ; Pennsylvania has said to expect its results on Friday at the earliest .
Biden , who positioned himself as a figure of unity during the final weeks of the election , is now something slightly different , a champion of the Democratic position .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ a sedate , nonpartisan quality to it : it is to wait , to count the late-arriving votes , to avoid jumping to conclusions .
Biden praised voters ’ patience , but , as he spoke , the President was on Twitter , pushing the opposite case : “ We are up BIG , but they are trying to STEAL the Election .
We will never let them do it.
” Twitter quickly flagged Trump ’ s false claim as “ disputed ” and “ misleading ” ; it remains to be seen @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Onstage , Biden congratulated the Democrats who had won reëlection in Delaware .
“ Keep the faith , guys ; we ’ re going to win this !
” he said again .
The cars honked .
The candidate said to his wife , Jill , “ Let ’ s walk over here , ” and they strolled to one end of the stage and waved out at a crowd that was not so big but still might be enough .
Read More About the 2020 Election • Live election results : see @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Senate , House , and gubernatorial races .
• The New Yorker endorses a Biden Presidency .
What he must do to repair our democracy .
• Donald Trump has survived impeachment , twenty-six accusations of sexual misconduct , and thousands of lawsuits .
His luck may well end if Joe Biden wins .
• What happens if Trump fights the election results ?
• Here is what you can do if Trump stages a coup .
• To understand the path Trump has taken to the 2020 election , look at what @ @ @ @ @ @ @ • The refusal by Mitch McConnell to rein in Trump is looking riskier than ever .
• Sign up for our daily newsletter for insight and analysis from our reporters and columnists .

“Your patience is commendable!” Joe Biden told supporters in a parking lot, at about a quarter to one in the morning. His motorcade had travelled from his home to the Chase Center, in Wilmington, so that he could give not a victory speech but a placeholder. “We believe we’re on track to win this election,” Biden told the crowd, many of whom remained parked in their cars. They honked back, and then Biden quoted, a little selectively, from recent developments on television: Fox News had declared that he’d won Arizona, and a larger group of media outlets had said that he’d won Minnesota. Biden said that he was optimistic about Wisconsin and Michigan, and confident that Pennsylvania and ultimately the Presidency would be in his column. He sounded confident, too, breaking now and then into a big toothy grin. Biden said, “It ain’t over until every vote is counted, every ballot is counted. But we’re feeling good.”
It may emerge, in the coming days, that the pandemic, as expected, swung the election decisively toward Biden, but for the moment it seems to have added layers of uncertainty to the outcome, as county officials continue sorting millions of mail-in ballots. Michigan and Wisconsin were still counting votes early Wednesday morning; Pennsylvania has said to expect its results on Friday at the earliest. Biden, who positioned himself as a figure of unity during the final weeks of the election, is now something slightly different, a champion of the Democratic position. But that position, too, has a sedate, nonpartisan quality to it: it is to wait, to count the late-arriving votes, to avoid jumping to conclusions.
Biden praised voters’ patience, but, as he spoke, the President was on Twitter, pushing the opposite case: “We are up BIG, but they are trying to STEAL the Election. We will never let them do it.” Twitter quickly flagged Trump’s false claim as “disputed” and “misleading”; it remains to be seen whether Republicans will do the same. Onstage, Biden congratulated the Democrats who had won reëlection in Delaware. “Keep the faith, guys; we’re going to win this!” he said again. The cars honked. The candidate said to his wife, Jill, “Let’s walk over here,” and they strolled to one end of the stage and waved out at a crowd that was not so big but still might be enough.
Read More About the 2020 Election