newyorker--2020-11-07--The First Question for Democrats to Answer About the Election: What Happened?

The first step in any political inquest is to figure out exactly what happened .
The Democrats ’ struggles in local and statewide races will take more time to unpack , but there are data already available about the race at the top of the ticket that can offer some insight into what happened in 2020 .
Even here , however , there isn ’ t much agreement .
The nationwide exit poll that Edison Research carries out for a consortium of media companies indicated that Trump got fifty-seven per cent of the white vote , the same number that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ did better than expected among minority voters , particularly Hispanics .
Some Democratic activists have questioned the poll findings , however .
“ Are these exit polls real ?
” Ezra Levin , the co-founder of Indivisible , a grassroots progressive organization , asked on Twitter .
When I messaged Levin and asked for his interpretation of the election results , he replied , “ We just don ’ t have enough info yet to really say what happened .
I have no idea if most of the quick takes out there right @ @ @ @ @ @ @ nobody really does yet.
” Levin isn ’ t the only person querying the exit poll , which was conducted outside of polling centers across the country ( and by telephone in an effort to reach people who voted early or by mail ) .
Partly because of the challenge in obtaining representative samples , and for other reasons , some academic experts on voting trends are also highly skeptical of the network exit poll .
“ I think all of their estimates are pretty suspect , ” Ruy Teixeira , a senior @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , told me on Friday .
Citing an example , Teixeria pointed out that , although other estimates have suggested that at least seventy per cent of the 2020 electorate was white , the exit poll came up with a figure of sixty-five per cent .
“ Not on this planet , not in this election , ” Teixeira said .
A longtime student of psephology , Teixeira is a co-author of the influential book “ The Emerging Democratic Majority , ” from 2002 .
More recently , he and some co-authors have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the U.S. electorate , which are called “ States of Change , ” and which utilize data from a number of different sources , including the Census Bureau , the Cooperative Congressional Election Study , and actual election returns down to the county level .
Rather than relying on the exit poll to analyze what went down in this election , Teixeira said that he preferred to look at the findings of a different survey , the A.P .
VoteCast , which questioned more than a hundred thousand voters in all fifty states @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 3rd .
To see how 2020 compared to 2016 , Teixeira then compared the A.P .
VoteCast findings to the analyses of the 2016 election by the “ States of Change ” project .
Although this comparison isn ’ t an apples-to-apples one , it does provide an alternative way of looking at the election results and identifying their key features .
“ It ’ s not great , but it ’ s probably the best we have at the moment , ” Teixeira said .
In some ways , this exercise produces @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the exit polls from 2016 and 2020 .
Both methods confirm that Trump ’ s voters are overwhelmingly white and predominantly male .
The two methods also indicate that , relative to Hillary Clinton ’ s performance four years ago , Biden made up substantial ground among seniors and white voters without a bachelor ’ s degree—two groups that Trump carried by large margins in 2016 .
The two methods also show Trump getting roughly a third of the Latino vote nationwide .
However , Teixeira ’ s methodology produces quantitatively different results @ @ @ @ @ @ @ widely publicized exit-poll finding that Trump attracted a lot more Black voters this year than he did four years ago .
“ I am very unpersuaded that the Democrats ’ margin among Black voters went down a lot , ” Teixeira said .
“ I think it was probably relatively stable.
” Another big difference between Teixeira ’ s analysis and the media narrative taking hold in the past few days is the emphasis that he places on Biden ’ s ability to limit his losses among whites without a college degree , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ base .
For decades , this group made up the majority of the electorate , and , this year , it still accounted for more than two-fifths of it , Teixeira and his colleagues reckon .
In 2016 , Trump beat Clinton by a whopping thirty-two percentage points in this demographic , according to estimates contained in the latest “ States of Change ” report .
This year , Trump ’ s margin over Biden in this group was twenty-five points , the A.P .
VoteCast found .
To be sure , that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ But it represented a seven-point shift to the Democratic candidate relative to 2016 , and Teixeira argues that this was a key factor—perhaps the key factor—that laid the groundwork for Biden ’ s victory in the Electoral College .
“ The theory that Biden would win , to a great extent , because he could reduce the white , non-college deficit turned out to be true , ” Teixeira said .
“ He just didn ’ t win by as much as people wanted .
Plus , people have trouble getting their minds @ @ @ @ @ @ @ minus thirty-two to minus twenty-five is just as good as going from plus seven to plus fourteen .
And if the former group is bigger , it is actually better.
” Turning to college-educated whites , Teixeira ’ s method suggests that Biden didn ’ t actually make up much ground in this demographic , despite all the attention that has been paid to suburban voters .
By contrast , the Edison exit poll indicated that Biden turned Clinton ’ s three-point deficit among these voters from 2016 into a tie with Trump @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s figures do suggest that the white college demographic was important in some key states , such as Michigan , where Biden improved Clinton ’ s margin by fourteen points .
On a nationwide basis , however , the exit poll and Teixeira ’ s analysis both indicate that the shift in this white college demographic was smaller than the shift in the white non-college one .
“ The biggest swing in the Democrats ’ direction was not among white college voters , it was among white non-college voters , ” Teixeira @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Clinton among older Americans , who are particularly vulnerable to COVID-19 , appears to be another key element in his victory .
This is evident in the exit-poll data , which indicate that the former Vice-President reduced Trump ’ s 2016 margin of seven points to three points among voters aged sixty-five and over , who make up more than a fifth of the electorate .
It ’ s even more stark in Teixeira ’ s comparison .
His “ States of Change ” data suggest that Trump carried the senior demographic by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ than the exit poll suggested .
For 2020 , the A.P .
VoteCast survey agrees with the Edison exit poll that Trump led Biden by three points among seniors .
So , going by Teixeira ’ s methodology , there was a hefty shift of twelve points relative to 2016 .
That jibes with some of the polling done during the campaign , which I wrote about as far back as June .
But for Democrats it raises questions about 2024 .
Assuming that the pandemic is long gone by then , it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the senior vote might shift back to a Republican Presidential candidate .
Which means that Biden , or whoever the Democratic candidate is , would need to make the margin up elsewhere .
The gains that Trump posted among Hispanic voters are another pressing concern for the Democrats .
According to the Edison exit poll , thirty-two per cent of Latinos voted for Trump nationwide , compared to twenty-eight per cent in 2016 .
The A.P .
VoteCast survey estimate of the Trump vote among Latinos is even higher—thirty-five per cent .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ States of Change ” estimates , you find that Trump reduced his deficit in the Latino demographic from thirty-seven points in 2016 to twenty-eight points this year .
With Latinos now making about a seventh of the electorate , the largest minority group , this is a big shift .
And , according to Teixeira ’ s analysis , it wasn ’ t confined to Cubans in Florida , or even to the whole of Florida and parts of Texas .
It was evident in places like Arizona and Nevada , too @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Change ” estimates for the 2016 election , Clinton ’ s winning margin among Hispanics in these two states was thirty-three points and twenty-two points , respectively .
This year , according to the findings of A.P .
VoteCast , Biden ’ s margins were twenty one points and ten points .
In other words , there were double-digit shifts to Trump in both states .
Finally , back to Black voters , who make up about twelve per cent of the electorate .
According to the exit poll , Trump raised his @ @ @ @ @ @ @ per cent in 2016 to twelve per cent this year—and to eighteen per cent among Black men .
Not surprisingly , given Trump ’ s racial incitements and the derogatory comments that he has repeatedly made about Black politicians and journalists , these findings have received a lot of attention—but Teixeira ’ s analysis contradicts them .
Based on “ States of Change ” data , he and his co-authors estimate the Black vote for Trump in 2016 to have been nine per cent , and the A.P .
VoteCast puts the figure @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .

Just four days after the election, Democratic politicians and activists are still coming to terms with a result that bitterly disappointed many of them, despite Joe Biden’s victory in the Presidential race. In a heated private conference call on Thursday, centrist and progressive members of the House Democratic caucus jostled over who or what was to blame for the Party’s unexpectedly weak showing in congressional races. (With a number of contests still to be called, the G.O.P. has already made a net gain of five seats.) At the local level, there is also a lot of sparring over why the Party failed in its bid to gain control of legislatures in a number of big states, including Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Texas.
The first step in any political inquest is to figure out exactly what happened. The Democrats’ struggles in local and statewide races will take more time to unpack, but there are data already available about the race at the top of the ticket that can offer some insight into what happened in 2020. Even here, however, there isn’t much agreement. The nationwide exit poll that Edison Research carries out for a consortium of media companies indicated that Trump got fifty-seven per cent of the white vote, the same number that he got in 2016, but also did better than expected among minority voters, particularly Hispanics. Some Democratic activists have questioned the poll findings, however. “Are these exit polls real?” Ezra Levin, the co-founder of Indivisible, a grassroots progressive organization, asked on Twitter. When I messaged Levin and asked for his interpretation of the election results, he replied, “We just don’t have enough info yet to really say what happened. I have no idea if most of the quick takes out there right now are right or wrong, but nobody really does yet.”
Levin isn’t the only person querying the exit poll, which was conducted outside of polling centers across the country (and by telephone in an effort to reach people who voted early or by mail). Partly because of the challenge in obtaining representative samples, and for other reasons, some academic experts on voting trends are also highly skeptical of the network exit poll. “I think all of their estimates are pretty suspect,” Ruy Teixeira, a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress, told me on Friday. Citing an example, Teixeira pointed out that, although other estimates have suggested that at least seventy per cent of the 2020 electorate was white, the exit poll came up with a figure of sixty-five per cent. “Not on this planet, not in this election,” Teixeira said.
A longtime student of psephology, Teixeira is a co-author of the influential book “The Emerging Democratic Majority,” from 2002. More recently, he and some co-authors have produced a series of detailed studies of the U.S. electorate, which are called “States of Change,” and which utilize data from a number of different sources, including the Census Bureau, the Cooperative Congressional Election Study, and actual election returns down to the county level. Rather than relying on the exit poll to analyze what went down in this election, Teixeira said that he preferred to look at the findings of a different survey, the A.P. VoteCast, which questioned more than a hundred thousand voters in all fifty states during the week leading up to November 3rd. To see how 2020 compared to 2016, Teixeira then compared the A.P. VoteCast findings to the analyses of the 2016 election by the “States of Change” project. Although this comparison isn’t an apples-to-apples one, it does provide an alternative way of looking at the election results and identifying their key features. “It’s not great, but it’s probably the best we have at the moment,” Teixeira said.
In some ways, this exercise produces similar results to a simple comparison of the exit polls from 2016 and 2020. Both methods confirm that Trump’s voters are overwhelmingly white and predominantly male. The two methods also indicate that, relative to Hillary Clinton’s performance four years ago, Biden made up substantial ground among seniors and white voters without a bachelor’s degree—two groups that Trump carried by large margins in 2016. The two methods also show Trump getting roughly a third of the Latino vote nationwide. However, Teixeira’s methodology produces quantitatively different results, and it fails to confirm the widely publicized exit-poll finding that Trump attracted a lot more Black voters this year than he did four years ago. “I am very unpersuaded that the Democrats’ margin among Black voters went down a lot,” Teixeira said. “I think it was probably relatively stable.”
Another big difference between Teixeira’s analysis and the media narrative taking hold in the past few days is the emphasis that he places on Biden’s ability to limit his losses among whites without a college degree, a group central to Trump’s base. For decades, this group made up the majority of the electorate, and, this year, it still accounted for more than two-fifths of it, Teixeira and his colleagues reckon. In 2016, Trump beat Clinton by a whopping thirty-two percentage points in this demographic, according to estimates contained in the latest “States of Change” report. This year, Trump’s margin over Biden in this group was twenty-five points, the A.P. VoteCast found. To be sure, that was another big victory for Trump. But it represented a seven-point shift to the Democratic candidate relative to 2016, and Teixeira argues that this was a key factor—perhaps the key factor—that laid the groundwork for Biden’s victory in the Electoral College. “The theory that Biden would win, to a great extent, because he could reduce the white, non-college deficit turned out to be true,” Teixeira said. “He just didn’t win by as much as people wanted. Plus, people have trouble getting their minds around the fact that to go from minus thirty-two to minus twenty-five is just as good as going from plus seven to plus fourteen. And if the former group is bigger, it is actually better.”
Turning to college-educated whites, Teixeira’s method suggests that Biden didn’t actually make up much ground in this demographic, despite all the attention that has been paid to suburban voters. By contrast, the Edison exit poll indicated that Biden turned Clinton’s three-point deficit among these voters from 2016 into a tie with Trump, at forty-nine per cent. Teixeira’s figures do suggest that the white college demographic was important in some key states, such as Michigan, where Biden improved Clinton’s margin by fourteen points. On a nationwide basis, however, the exit poll and Teixeira’s analysis both indicate that the shift in this white college demographic was smaller than the shift in the white non-college one. “The biggest swing in the Democrats’ direction was not among white college voters, it was among white non-college voters,” Teixeira said.
The fact that Biden outperformed Clinton among older Americans, who are particularly vulnerable to COVID-19, appears to be another key element in his victory. This is evident in the exit-poll data, which indicate that the former Vice-President reduced Trump’s 2016 margin of seven points to three points among voters aged sixty-five and over, who make up more than a fifth of the electorate. It’s even more stark in Teixeira’s comparison. His “States of Change” data suggest that Trump carried the senior demographic by fifteen points in 2016—a much bigger margin than the exit poll suggested. For 2020, the A.P. VoteCast survey agrees with the Edison exit poll that Trump led Biden by three points among seniors. So, going by Teixeira’s methodology, there was a hefty shift of twelve points relative to 2016. That jibes with some of the polling done during the campaign, which I wrote about as far back as June. But for Democrats it raises questions about 2024. Assuming that the pandemic is long gone by then, it would seem reasonable to suppose that some of the senior vote might shift back to a Republican Presidential candidate. Which means that Biden, or whoever the Democratic candidate is, would need to make the margin up elsewhere.


newyorker--2020-11-07--Donald Trump’s Day of Reckoning

Donald Trump’s Day of Reckoning

For four years—and , really , for his whole life—Trump had managed to avoid this moment .
In the three days since Election Night , with the race still uncalled but leaning Biden ’ s way , the President had raged on Twitter , fumed in private , and publicly claimed victory , even as the race was slipping away from him .
“ STOP THE COUNT !
” he insisted , on Thursday .
But they didn ’ t .
And , by the end of Friday , not only were the votes still being counted , but they @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , declarative , inarguable result : the 2020 Presidential election was over , and Donald Trump had lost .
The official end did not come for a few more agonizing hours , until just before eleven-thirty on Saturday morning , when the Associated Press and the television networks finally made the call .
In a fitting coda to four years of his trollish rule , Trump had tweeted less than an hour earlier , “ I WON THIS ELECTION , BY A LOT !
” Then he went golfing .
But the Constitution @ @ @ @ @ @ @ losers .
It does not matter whether Trump concedes : Biden has won .
A decent man who campaigned on the premise of making America America again , the former Vice-President has spent the past few days showing in word and in deed what it will be like to have a Presidential President again .
“ I am honored and humbled by the trust the American people have placed in me , ” he said in a statement issued immediately after his victory was announced .
He spoke of unity and democracy .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ American people that Trump , in his four years of capricious , norm-shattering maladministration , never did .
Indeed , it looked like Biden might well end up with exactly the three hundred and six Electoral College votes that Trump had won four years earlier , in addition to a popular-vote lead of as much as five million—a majority and an imprimatur of democratic legitimacy that eluded Trump in 2016 .
“ 306 .
Landslide .
Blowout .
Historic ” : that was what Trump ’ s campaign manager , Kellyanne Conway , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ victory became clear .
It was also what Democrats thought about Biden ’ s win—a major difference this time being that Trump has so far refused to do what Hillary Clinton had done more or less graciously , which is to acknowledge defeat and congratulate the winner .
Soon after Biden took the lead in Pennsylvania , a statement from the Trump campaign arrived in my in-box : “ This election is not over , ” the campaign ’ s general counsel , Matt Morgan , said .
But it effectively was , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the election ’ s outcome ; it was what Trump would do about that outcome—the same question that has loomed over the race since Trump first told the American public that he would not accept any result except his own victory .
Power ebbs away quickly in Washington .
When a downcast Trump went to the White House briefing room , on Thursday evening , to insist that the election was being stolen from him , he did so alone .
His two sons and campaign adviser Brad Parscale complained on Twitter that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fight—and threatened retribution .
“ Where is the GOP ?
!
Our voters will never forget , ” Eric Trump tweeted .
A few Republicans , eager to claim Trump ’ s huge following in the Party , responded to the Trumps ’ call for public reinforcement .
But , for every Ted Cruz and Lindsey Graham offering public displays of sycophancy , there were some Republicans who took their first hesitant , overdue steps away from the President .
Pat Toomey , the Republican senator from Pennsylvania , defended his state and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , even if they did not yet have the guts to say it publicly : that Trump ’ s allegations of large-scale election fraud and vote-stealing were “ just not substantiated.
” Chris Christie , who had been a close Trump adviser until he caught a bad case of the coronavirus—after attending Amy Coney Barrett ’ s Supreme Court nomination ceremony and helping Trump with debate preparation—called on the President either to reveal his evidence or shut up about it .
This time , it wasn ’ t just Mitt Romney sitting alone @ @ @ @ @ @ @ during Trump ’ s impeachment trial in the Senate .
Even on Fox News , Republicans , for once , did not go along with Trump in lockstep .
The treachery that Trump had always suspected in others might finally be coming for him .
Inside the White House , it was hard to know what was happening .
Beat reporters quoted various sources who said that Trump was angry , defiant , unmoved , and holed up watching television .
His advisers , as always , were said to be divided , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ some ways , already looking for new work .
Trump made no public statement during the long day of waiting on Friday , aside from a few errant tweets about “ missing military ballots in Georgia ” and “ the attack by the Radical Left Dems on the Republican Senate.
” His campaign , meanwhile , announced that it would hire the political operative David Bossie , a longtime Trump loyalist , to oversee the various state-level fights over the election results .
He was far from the “ James Baker-like ” figure @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Kushner , was reportedly in search of , earlier in the week , but perhaps the best that Trump could do .
By Friday evening , in a plot twist that surprised no one , the news that leaked out of the White House was about a new coronavirus outbreak , involving the chief of staff , Mark Meadows , and several other aides .
Meadows had sought to cover it up , perfectly summing up the Administration ’ s attitude toward the pandemic : pretend it does not exist .
There is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ but not yet gone .
Trump will remain in the White House until January 20th , in command of a vast executive branch and a wounded ego in need of validation and searching for justification .
He is reportedly still considering firing senior officials in his government whom he considers insufficiently loyal , including the head of the F.B.I.
, Christopher Wray , and the Secretary of Defense , Mark Esper .
Who knows what investigations he could order up , what last-minute executive orders he could issue ?
In the meantime , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the nation was consumed this week by the drama of the unresolved election , the number of COVID-19 cases escalated to dangerous new levels .
The two months between now and the Inauguration could prove to be a volatile , dangerous moment in Washington , and not just because Trump is likely to pursue spurious legal cases and refuse to concede .
On Tuesday night , Democrats had hoped for a Biden landslide .
When that did not materialize , there were days of recriminations .
Where was the repudiation of Trump that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the House ; they had not won the Senate .
Trump might lose , but tens of millions of Americans had supported him throughout the chaos and craziness—a number greater than what he gained four years ago .
Saturday , however , is different .
Saturday is Joe Biden ’ s day .
It is a day for celebrating .
It is the Death Star being blown up .
It is , finally , the end of the horror movie .
The fact that there is always another Death Star , always @ @ @ @ @ @ @ reappears , is a worry for another time .
There will be many weeks and months and years to argue over what happened in America that made Donald Trump the President , and why .
For now , it is enough to know that he is going , and soon .
Donald Trump is a loser , and America , even if it was a very close call , has won .
Read More About the 2020 Election • Trump has survived impeachment , twenty-six sexual-misconduct accusations , and thousands of lawsuits .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ Joe Biden will be the next President .
• What happens if Trump fights the election results ?
• Here is what you can do if Trump stages a coup .
• For the G.O.P.
, the future may look like Florida , which is becoming less white but not much less conservative .
Can Republicans become a multiracial working-class party ?
• Sign up for our daily newsletter for insight and analysis from our reporters and columnists .

For Donald Trump, the reckoning began before dawn on Friday, in Clayton County, Georgia, where poll workers in face masks finished counting votes that gave Joe Biden a lead in the state, putting him on course to become the first Democrat to win Georgia since 1992. By just before 9 A.M., the final outcome seemed increasingly inevitable with the announcement that Biden had finally overtaken Trump in Pennsylvania, thanks to the latest results from Philadelphia, a city that Trump maligned hours earlier as one of “the most corrupt political places anywhere in our country.” In Washington, D.C., it was a sunny, beautiful fall day, and hundreds gathered in front of the White House to cheer the imminent end of the long, strange reign of the most unlikely American President of our time.
For four years—and, really, for his whole life—Trump had managed to avoid this moment. In the three days since Election Night, with the race still uncalled but leaning Biden’s way, the President had raged on Twitter, fumed in private, and publicly claimed victory, even as the race was slipping away from him. “STOP THE COUNT!” he insisted, on Thursday. But they didn’t. And, by the end of Friday, not only were the votes still being counted, but they pointed to a result, a decisive, declarative, inarguable result: the 2020 Presidential election was over, and Donald Trump had lost.
The official end did not come for a few more agonizing hours, until just before eleven-thirty on Saturday morning, when the Associated Press and the television networks finally made the call. In a fitting coda to four years of his trollish rule, Trump had tweeted less than an hour earlier, “I WON THIS ELECTION, BY A LOT!” Then he went golfing. But the Constitution does not include a provision for sore losers. It does not matter whether Trump concedes: Biden has won. A decent man who campaigned on the premise of making America America again, the former Vice-President has spent the past few days showing in word and in deed what it will be like to have a Presidential President again. “I am honored and humbled by the trust the American people have placed in me,” he said in a statement issued immediately after his victory was announced. He spoke of unity and democracy. He will have a mandate from the American people that Trump, in his four years of capricious, norm-shattering maladministration, never did.
Indeed, it looked like Biden might well end up with exactly the three hundred and six Electoral College votes that Trump had won four years earlier, in addition to a popular-vote lead of as much as five million—a majority and an imprimatur of democratic legitimacy that eluded Trump in 2016. “306. Landslide. Blowout. Historic”: that was what Trump’s campaign manager, Kellyanne Conway, tweeted four years ago, when his victory became clear. It was also what Democrats thought about Biden’s win—a major difference this time being that Trump has so far refused to do what Hillary Clinton had done more or less graciously, which is to acknowledge defeat and congratulate the winner.
Soon after Biden took the lead in Pennsylvania, a statement from the Trump campaign arrived in my in-box: “This election is not over,” the campaign’s general counsel, Matt Morgan, said. But it effectively was, and the question was no longer about the election’s outcome; it was what Trump would do about that outcome—the same question that has loomed over the race since Trump first told the American public that he would not accept any result except his own victory.
Power ebbs away quickly in Washington. When a downcast Trump went to the White House briefing room, on Thursday evening, to insist that the election was being stolen from him, he did so alone. His two sons and campaign adviser Brad Parscale complained on Twitter that Republican Party leaders were absent from the fight—and threatened retribution. “Where is the GOP?! Our voters will never forget,” Eric Trump tweeted. A few Republicans, eager to claim Trump’s huge following in the Party, responded to the Trumps’ call for public reinforcement. But, for every Ted Cruz and Lindsey Graham offering public displays of sycophancy, there were some Republicans who took their first hesitant, overdue steps away from the President. Pat Toomey, the Republican senator from Pennsylvania, defended his state and said what many other Republicans were thinking, even if they did not yet have the guts to say it publicly: that Trump’s allegations of large-scale election fraud and vote-stealing were “just not substantiated.” Chris Christie, who had been a close Trump adviser until he caught a bad case of the coronavirus—after attending Amy Coney Barrett’s Supreme Court nomination ceremony and helping Trump with debate preparation—called on the President either to reveal his evidence or shut up about it. This time, it wasn’t just Mitt Romney sitting alone with his conscience, as he did during Trump’s impeachment trial in the Senate. Even on Fox News, Republicans, for once, did not go along with Trump in lockstep. The treachery that Trump had always suspected in others might finally be coming for him.
Inside the White House, it was hard to know what was happening. Beat reporters quoted various sources who said that Trump was angry, defiant, unmoved, and holed up watching television. His advisers, as always, were said to be divided, demoralized, and, at least in some ways, already looking for new work. Trump made no public statement during the long day of waiting on Friday, aside from a few errant tweets about “missing military ballots in Georgia” and “the attack by the Radical Left Dems on the Republican Senate.” His campaign, meanwhile, announced that it would hire the political operative David Bossie, a longtime Trump loyalist, to oversee the various state-level fights over the election results. He was far from the “James Baker-like” figure that Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, was reportedly in search of, earlier in the week, but perhaps the best that Trump could do. By Friday evening, in a plot twist that surprised no one, the news that leaked out of the White House was about a new coronavirus outbreak, involving the chief of staff, Mark Meadows, and several other aides. Meadows had sought to cover it up, perfectly summing up the Administration’s attitude toward the pandemic: pretend it does not exist.
There is still great risk in a President defeated but not yet gone. Trump will remain in the White House until January 20th, in command of a vast executive branch and a wounded ego in need of validation and searching for justification. He is reportedly still considering firing senior officials in his government whom he considers insufficiently loyal, including the head of the F.B.I., Christopher Wray, and the Secretary of Defense, Mark Esper. Who knows what investigations he could order up, what last-minute executive orders he could issue? In the meantime, the pandemic rages on, and as the nation was consumed this week by the drama of the unresolved election, the number of COVID-19 cases escalated to dangerous new levels. The two months between now and the Inauguration could prove to be a volatile, dangerous moment in Washington, and not just because Trump is likely to pursue spurious legal cases and refuse to concede.
Trump, as always, has succeeded in making it all about him. Will he leave the White House peacefully or will he have to be dragged out? Is he detached from reality or simply proceeding despite it? With his willingness to attack the very foundation of American democracy in order to save himself, one could almost be forgiven for seeing the endgame of the 2020 election as a contest between Donald Trump and himself. There has been remarkably little discussion of the actual winner.
On Tuesday night, Democrats had hoped for a Biden landslide. When that did not materialize, there were days of recriminations. Where was the repudiation of Trump that they craved? They had lost seats in the House; they had not won the Senate. Trump might lose, but tens of millions of Americans had supported him throughout the chaos and craziness—a number greater than what he gained four years ago.


newyorker--2020-11-07--Trump Is Out of a Job Because So Many Did the Work

Joe Biden has reached two hundred and seventy votes in the Electoral College , and getting him there was hard as hell—harder than anyone who ’ d been reading the polls or , for that matter , just reading the tweets of the debased incumbent had expected .
It barely happened : Wisconsin , where one poll had Biden up seventeen points , was decided by 20,534 votes—a scant half a per cent .
Had just a few of other similar close calls broken in the other direction , we ’ d be girding ourselves for another four years of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with it , quite possibly the final fizzling of our democracy .
Yes , the popular vote was an easy win , as everyone knew it would be .
But the crucial states had thin margins .
It ’ s mind-boggling to some that the race was so tight : Who , having endured the past four years , would line up to ask for another helping ?
Lots and lots of people , it turns out , for reasons we don ’ t yet fully divine .
But , for the moment @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will be a thousand dissections of the numbers , a Talmudic parsing of Venezuelan Floridians and Philly suburbanites .
For the moment , focus on how much work went into winning this insufficient but nonetheless existential victory .
We don ’ t know—can ’ t know—what exactly produced the necessary margin , so it ’ s worth saying a simple thanks to all who did what they could .
The women who led marches across the country the day after the Inauguration , the people who rushed to the airports the day of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and the noisy advocates who went to the border when people were held there in cages .
Thanks to the climate-striking students in high schools and middle schools across America , and to the slightly older youth from the Sunrise Movement , who took the Green New Deal and made it popular .
Thanks to the activists who built Black Lives Matter and used their talents to focus a nation ’ s outrage in the wake of George Floyd ’ s death ( and used their political skills to prevent that outrage from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the streets that Trump desperately wanted ) .
And thanks , as well , to the past and perhaps future Republicans who formed the Lincoln Project .
Their efforts have been dismissed these past days , because exit polls show that ninety-three per cent of Republicans voted for Trump , but who knows what effect the project had on independents ( or on raising the spirits of Democrats who then fought harder ) .
If Arizona ends up in the Biden column , surely Cindy McCain played a role .
Thanks to the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ who turned out a big youth vote , and the folks at Dayenu , whose Chutzpah campaign reached tens of thousands of Jewish voters .
Thanks to a naked Sarah Silverman and to John Legend and Bruce Springsteen and every famous artist who rallied a few more folks to the polls .
Gratitude is due the crowd of Democratic Presidential candidates who managed to conduct their primary in a spirit that mostly united the Party—to Elizabeth Warren and her endless selfie lines , to Mayor Pete for taking the fight to Fox News @ @ @ @ @ @ @ straightforward debate challenge to Biden , which somehow managed not to cross whatever invisible line exists between telling the truth and doing irreparable damage .
Probably Bernie Sanders deserves the most credit in this group , because he came so close to winning—and , when he didn ’ t , he never sulked .
Instead , he stood behind his issues , reaching effective working compromises with the Biden team and then soldiering on .
Thanks to such leaders as Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez , for reminding their colleagues to bring wit and compassion to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Carter , for making a Convention speech—maybe that swung a few votes in Georgia , where the final tally was tighter than tight .
His fellow-Georgian , Stacey Abrams , did more than anyone to make sure that those votes would actually be counted .
But elections are rarely , in the end , decided by the famous .
Winning them takes an endless army of anonymous people , and this year they showed up .
I ’ ve been on scads of calls these past months to recruit phone-bankers—it ’ s not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ you that they don ’ t want to talk .
But that ’ s how you find the people ( maybe two or three out of every hundred you call ) who otherwise might not have bothered to vote .
Thanks to people who sent pizza to the polls , and pastors to the polls , and thanks to the drag queens who entertained people waiting in long lines .
Thanks to the Party operatives who do the unglamorous work , day in and day out .
I watched ( and sent money @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Ben Wikler moved his family to that state , in 2018 , to take the helm of the state Party .
Doubtless , he wanted Biden to win by more than twenty thousand votes , but , if Wikler hadn ’ t done what he did , those twenty thousand votes might not have been there .
I watched Jane Kleeb , the head of Nebraska ’ s Democratic Party , concentrate on winning that one blue dot in Omaha that the state ’ s inspired Electoral College law awards ; it could @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Wikler and Kleeb had the help of thousands of volunteers whose names we will never know .
Some of them were local , some of them from far away—people who heard , say , a “ Pod Save America ” podcast and decided to give their time to help .
I watched the Democratic Socialists of America get a bunch of their down-ballot candidates across the finish line , and , in the process , probably get some people out to vote for Biden .
Obviously , the D.S.A .
is going to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ should .
But , at some level , everyone seems to have understood that we needed a President Biden to challenge .
( Almost no one seems to have paid attention to the Green candidates this time around , at least not in states that mattered , and , given the margins , thank heaven . )
Clearly , lots of effort and money was wasted—people who have been sending fifty dollars a week to massively funded Senate campaigns that came up ten points short have the right to ask some tough questions @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee , which managed to pick some losers .
But waste is part of the process , because you don ’ t know in advance where your prospects are best .
All that noise—the sight of Jaime Harrison standing up to Lindsey Graham , or Theresa Greenfield schooling Joni Ernst on commodity prices—probably added to whatever alchemy managed to squeak Biden through .
Black voters in Detroit and Philly and Atlanta saved the day—and so did voters in New England and the Pacific Northwest , who set up solid @ @ @ @ @ @ @ worry too much about defending .
It could have gone much better .
( Specifically , a deadlocked Senate will make action on the dominant issue of our lifetimes , climate change , more difficult to address than it should be . )
But it went .
Donald Trump , the worst President in American history , has been fired .
Seventy-five or eighty million voters made that decision , and millions of people worked incredibly hard to insure that they did .
As America finds its footing again , it ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a good day for postmortems ; today ’ s for celebrating the efforts of others and reminding ourselves that democracy is a participation sport .
Read More About the 2020 Election • Trump has survived impeachment , twenty-six sexual-misconduct accusations , and thousands of lawsuits .
His luck may well end now that Joe Biden will be the next President .
• What happens if Trump fights the election results ?
• Here is what you can do if Trump stages a coup .
• For the G.O.P.
, the future may look @ @ @ @ @ @ @ white but not much less conservative .
Can Republicans become a multiracial working-class party ?
• Sign up for our daily newsletter for insight and analysis from our reporters and columnists .

Joe Biden has reached two hundred and seventy votes in the Electoral College, and getting him there was hard as hell—harder than anyone who’d been reading the polls or, for that matter, just reading the tweets of the debased incumbent had expected. It barely happened: Wisconsin, where one poll had Biden up seventeen points, was decided by 20,534 votes—a scant half a per cent. Had just a few of other similar close calls broken in the other direction, we’d be girding ourselves for another four years of Donald Trump’s ugliness and, with it, quite possibly the final fizzling of our democracy. Yes, the popular vote was an easy win, as everyone knew it would be. But the crucial states had thin margins. It’s mind-boggling to some that the race was so tight: Who, having endured the past four years, would line up to ask for another helping? Lots and lots of people, it turns out, for reasons we don’t yet fully divine.
But, for the moment, don’t focus on them—there will be a thousand dissections of the numbers, a Talmudic parsing of Venezuelan Floridians and Philly suburbanites. For the moment, focus on how much work went into winning this insufficient but nonetheless existential victory. We don’t know—can’t know—what exactly produced the necessary margin, so it’s worth saying a simple thanks to all who did what they could. The women who led marches across the country the day after the Inauguration, the people who rushed to the airports the day of the Muslim ban, and the lawyers and the noisy advocates who went to the border when people were held there in cages. Thanks to the climate-striking students in high schools and middle schools across America, and to the slightly older youth from the Sunrise Movement, who took the Green New Deal and made it popular. Thanks to the activists who built Black Lives Matter and used their talents to focus a nation’s outrage in the wake of George Floyd’s death (and used their political skills to prevent that outrage from turning into the kind of explosions in the streets that Trump desperately wanted).
And thanks, as well, to the past and perhaps future Republicans who formed the Lincoln Project. Their efforts have been dismissed these past days, because exit polls show that ninety-three per cent of Republicans voted for Trump, but who knows what effect the project had on independents (or on raising the spirits of Democrats who then fought harder). If Arizona ends up in the Biden column, surely Cindy McCain played a role. Thanks to the evangelists at places like NextGen America, who turned out a big youth vote, and the folks at Dayenu, whose Chutzpah campaign reached tens of thousands of Jewish voters. Thanks to a naked Sarah Silverman and to John Legend and Bruce Springsteen and every famous artist who rallied a few more folks to the polls.
Gratitude is due the crowd of Democratic Presidential candidates who managed to conduct their primary in a spirit that mostly united the Party—to Elizabeth Warren and her endless selfie lines, to Mayor Pete for taking the fight to Fox News, and to Kamala Harris and her straightforward debate challenge to Biden, which somehow managed not to cross whatever invisible line exists between telling the truth and doing irreparable damage. Probably Bernie Sanders deserves the most credit in this group, because he came so close to winning—and, when he didn’t, he never sulked. Instead, he stood behind his issues, reaching effective working compromises with the Biden team and then soldiering on. Thanks to such leaders as Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, for reminding their colleagues to bring wit and compassion to their tasks, and to ninety-six-year-old Jimmy Carter, for making a Convention speech—maybe that swung a few votes in Georgia, where the final tally was tighter than tight. His fellow-Georgian, Stacey Abrams, did more than anyone to make sure that those votes would actually be counted.
But elections are rarely, in the end, decided by the famous. Winning them takes an endless army of anonymous people, and this year they showed up. I’ve been on scads of calls these past months to recruit phone-bankers—it’s not easy calling strangers and have them tell you that they don’t want to talk. But that’s how you find the people (maybe two or three out of every hundred you call) who otherwise might not have bothered to vote. Thanks to people who sent pizza to the polls, and pastors to the polls, and thanks to the drag queens who entertained people waiting in long lines. Thanks to the Party operatives who do the unglamorous work, day in and day out. I watched (and sent money to) the Wisconsin Democrats, when Ben Wikler moved his family to that state, in 2018, to take the helm of the state Party. Doubtless, he wanted Biden to win by more than twenty thousand votes, but, if Wikler hadn’t done what he did, those twenty thousand votes might not have been there. I watched Jane Kleeb, the head of Nebraska’s Democratic Party, concentrate on winning that one blue dot in Omaha that the state’s inspired Electoral College law awards; it could have been the literal winning margin. Wikler and Kleeb had the help of thousands of volunteers whose names we will never know. Some of them were local, some of them from far away—people who heard, say, a “Pod Save America” podcast and decided to give their time to help. I watched the Democratic Socialists of America get a bunch of their down-ballot candidates across the finish line, and, in the process, probably get some people out to vote for Biden. Obviously, the D.S.A. is going to challenge a President Biden, and it should. But, at some level, everyone seems to have understood that we needed a President Biden to challenge. (Almost no one seems to have paid attention to the Green candidates this time around, at least not in states that mattered, and, given the margins, thank heaven.)
Clearly, lots of effort and money was wasted—people who have been sending fifty dollars a week to massively funded Senate campaigns that came up ten points short have the right to ask some tough questions of the Democratic consultant class and of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, which managed to pick some losers. But waste is part of the process, because you don’t know in advance where your prospects are best. All that noise—the sight of Jaime Harrison standing up to Lindsey Graham, or Theresa Greenfield schooling Joni Ernst on commodity prices—probably added to whatever alchemy managed to squeak Biden through. Black voters in Detroit and Philly and Atlanta saved the day—and so did voters in New England and the Pacific Northwest, who set up solid blue blocs that no one had to worry too much about defending.
It could have gone much better. (Specifically, a deadlocked Senate will make action on the dominant issue of our lifetimes, climate change, more difficult to address than it should be.) But it went. Donald Trump, the worst President in American history, has been fired. Seventy-five or eighty million voters made that decision, and millions of people worked incredibly hard to insure that they did. As America finds its footing again, it’s thanks to them. Tomorrow’s a good day for postmortems; today’s for celebrating the efforts of others and reminding ourselves that democracy is a participation sport.
Read More About the 2020 Election


newyorker--2020-11-07--The Biden Era Begins

The Biden Era Begins

Joe Biden , the victor in the popular vote by a margin so far of more than four million , has won the Electoral College and will become the forty-sixth President of the United States .
Senator Kamala Harris , the daughter of a Black father and an Indian-American mother , will make history as Biden ’ s Vice-President .
Donald Trump , who will finish out his term as the most cynical character ever to occupy the Oval Office , was mendacious to the last , claiming victory before the ballots were counted and accusing an unknown “ they @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from him .
He is sure to pursue his case , however misbegotten , in the courts and in the right-wing media .
It would also come as no shock if he provoked civil unrest on his own behalf .
If four years have proved anything about Trump , it ’ s that he is capable of nearly anything .
The unhinged , if predictable , spectacle of Trump ’ s press conference early Wednesday morning at the White House was outrageous even to some of his closest allies : here was an @ @ @ @ @ @ @ live television , to undermine one of the oldest democratic systems in existence .
“ This is a fraud on the American public , ” he complained .
“ This is an embarrassment to our country.
” As far as he was concerned , citing no evidence , “ we have already won it.
” Trump was willing , as always , to imperil the interests and the stability of the country to satisfy his ego and protect his power .
On Thursday evening , Trump reprised this malign and pathetic performance , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pressroom to claim , again without proof , that he was being “ cheated ” by a “ corrupt system.
” Reading from a prepared text , he said that his vote was being “ whittled down ” as ballots were being counted .
He spun a baseless conspiracy theory about dishonorable election officials , a burst pipe , and “ large pieces of cardboard.
” His words were at once embittered and deranged ; his voice betrayed defeat .
There has never been a more dangerous speech by an American President , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ his party ’ s leadership would , at last , abandon him .
There can be no overstating the magnitude of the tasks facing Biden .
If he survives whatever challenges , legal and rhetorical , that Trump throws his way in the coming days and weeks , he will begin his term facing a profoundly polarized country , one even more divided and tribal than the polls have suggested .
It is a nation in which one half can not quite comprehend the other half .
He also confronts a country that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ an ailing economy , racial injustice , and a climate crisis that millions refuse to acknowledge .
Many Biden supporters had hoped to gain a more resounding mandate , and on Election Night there were early glimmers of hope in Texas and Ohio .
In the end , with close finishes in so many states , Biden would have to be satisfied with unseating the incumbent .
Crucially , he outperformed Hillary Clinton in Michigan , Wisconsin , and Pennsylvania , and widened the playing field to Arizona and Georgia , where Democrats @ @ @ @ @ @ @ had been , almost uniformly , wrong , often by significant margins .
They again underestimated Trump ’ s over-all support .
Predictions of a towering “ blue wave ” washing away the Trump Administration and the memory of the past four years proved to be a fantasy .
And yet the end of the Trump Presidency is , by any measure , a signal moment in modern American history .
These four years have wrought tragic consequences ; there is no question that another four would have compounded the damage immeasurably .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ war on democratic institutions and deployed a politics of conspicuous cruelty , bigotry , and division .
He turned the Presidency into a reality show of lurid accusation and preening self-regard .
But what finally made him vulnerable to defeat was his mishandling of the coronavirus pandemic , which has killed nearly a quarter of a million Americans .
His disdain for scientific and medical expertise , his refusal to endorse even the most rudimentary preventive measures against the spread of the virus , was , according to medical experts , responsible for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Perhaps the most emblematic sign of his heedlessness was the Rose Garden ceremony at which Trump announced his nomination of Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court ; within days , it was clear that the ceremony , a predominantly mask-free affair , with people seated in tightly packed rows , had been a superspreader event .
The pandemic also served to heighten the difference in character between the two candidates .
For many months , Trump betrayed little sense of loss .
Fellow-feeling is not in his emotional vocabulary .
At @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and indifferent , unwilling to acknowledge the gravity of the pandemic in any recognizably human way .
“ We ’ re rounding the turn !
” he declared again and again , as the death toll rose higher and a new wave of cases crested in hundreds of American towns and cities .
For a fleeting moment , when he was ill himself , Trump pretended to experience a glimmer of sympathy for people who had died , been sick , or feared the virus .
That soon passed .
To Biden , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , is the very condition of life .
As a young man , he suffered the deaths of a daughter and his first wife in a car crash ; more recently , his elder son died of brain cancer .
Biden is a man of transparent flaws—regrettable political decisions during his long Senate career , a speaking style that often tips into bewildered verbosity—and yet in his public life he rarely fails to project a quality of empathy .
That quality may have been as essential to his appeal as any policy proposal @ @ @ @ @ @ @ promise an orderly transfer of power .
He now will doubtless cast blame , concoct conspiratorial reasons for his downfall , and , if past is prologue , compare the beneficence of his rule to that of Abraham Lincoln .
It is hard to imagine him appearing at Biden ’ s Inauguration and behaving with even an ounce of grace .
He knows well what follows , and he can not bear it : Joe and Jill Biden will move into the White House , and he will retreat to Mar-a-Lago , where @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , prosecutors , the Internal Revenue Service , and the judgment of history .
Trump might develop a new media venture .
He might even lay plans for a run in 2024 .
The Constitution allows it .
But , even if Trump ’ s career in elective politics is over , Trumpism will , in some form , persist .
In 2016 , he recognized the hollowness of the Republican establishment and quickly buried front-runners for the G.O.P.
’ s nomination , from Jeb Bush to Marco Rubio .
As President , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bending former opponents to his will and banishing anyone who questioned his authority , his judgment , or his sanity .
Republican leaders made it plain that they were willing to ignore Trump ’ s antics and abuse so long as they got what they wanted : the appointment of right-wing judges and diminished tax rates for corporations and the wealthy .
His appeal was nearly as frightening to Republicans in Congress as it was to those who voted for Biden .
Trump has lost this race , but it is hard to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Tens of millions of Americans either endorsed his curdled illiberalism , his politics of resentment and bigotry , or were at least willing to countenance it for one reason or another .
The future of Trumpism remains an open question .
In the early debates and primaries , Biden stumbled .
His opponents highlighted his uneven record , his rhetorical blunders , and his age .
( Biden , who will be seventy-eight on November 20th , is older coming into the White House than Ronald Reagan was when he left it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ inspire confidence .
Pundits recalled how , in 2008 , he had scored one per cent of the vote in the Iowa caucuses and quickly bowed out .
Would the same happen in 2020 ?
Memories of his performance at the Clarence Thomas confirmation hearings and other moments of misjudgment were a drag on his candidacy .
His effort seemed tired , without evident purpose .
Writing in BuzzFeed News at the time , Ben Smith rightly observed that Biden ’ s campaign was “ stumbling toward launch with all the hallmarks of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ leads straight down.
” But , after getting buried in Iowa , New Hampshire , and Nevada , Biden persisted , deploying a steady appeal to his own ordinariness , a sense of decency .
His message , to a great degree , was that he ’ d been Barack Obama ’ s Vice-President and that he had the best chance of beating Donald Trump .
In South Carolina , thanks in part to an endorsement from Representative James Clyburn , a lingering glamour from his place in the Obama Administration , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ won the primary .
Thereafter , his campaign came alive .
He and Sanders , in particular , continued to debate the issues , but one sensed that among all the Democratic contenders there was an underlying priority—the need to deny Trump a second term .

American democracy was on the ballot on Election Day, and although American democracy won, an occasion of immense relief, the margin of victory should not be exaggerated.
Joe Biden, the victor in the popular vote by a margin so far of more than four million, has won the Electoral College and will become the forty-sixth President of the United States. Senator Kamala Harris, the daughter of a Black father and an Indian-American mother, will make history as Biden’s Vice-President. Donald Trump, who will finish out his term as the most cynical character ever to occupy the Oval Office, was mendacious to the last, claiming victory before the ballots were counted and accusing an unknown “they” of trying to steal the election from him. He is sure to pursue his case, however misbegotten, in the courts and in the right-wing media. It would also come as no shock if he provoked civil unrest on his own behalf. If four years have proved anything about Trump, it’s that he is capable of nearly anything.
The unhinged, if predictable, spectacle of Trump’s press conference early Wednesday morning at the White House was outrageous even to some of his closest allies: here was an unstable authoritarian trying his best, on live television, to undermine one of the oldest democratic systems in existence. “This is a fraud on the American public,” he complained. “This is an embarrassment to our country.” As far as he was concerned, citing no evidence, “we have already won it.” Trump was willing, as always, to imperil the interests and the stability of the country to satisfy his ego and protect his power. On Thursday evening, Trump reprised this malign and pathetic performance, as he took to the White House pressroom to claim, again without proof, that he was being “cheated” by a “corrupt system.” Reading from a prepared text, he said that his vote was being “whittled down” as ballots were being counted. He spun a baseless conspiracy theory about dishonorable election officials, a burst pipe, and “large pieces of cardboard.” His words were at once embittered and deranged; his voice betrayed defeat. There has never been a more dangerous speech by an American President, and it remained to be seen if his party’s leadership would, at last, abandon him.
There can be no overstating the magnitude of the tasks facing Biden. If he survives whatever challenges, legal and rhetorical, that Trump throws his way in the coming days and weeks, he will begin his term facing a profoundly polarized country, one even more divided and tribal than the polls have suggested. It is a nation in which one half cannot quite comprehend the other half. He also confronts a country that is suffering from an ever-worsening pandemic, an ailing economy, racial injustice, and a climate crisis that millions refuse to acknowledge.
Many Biden supporters had hoped to gain a more resounding mandate, and on Election Night there were early glimmers of hope in Texas and Ohio. In the end, with close finishes in so many states, Biden would have to be satisfied with unseating the incumbent. Crucially, he outperformed Hillary Clinton in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, and widened the playing field to Arizona and Georgia, where Democrats have struggled for years. The polls had been, almost uniformly, wrong, often by significant margins. They again underestimated Trump’s over-all support. Predictions of a towering “blue wave” washing away the Trump Administration and the memory of the past four years proved to be a fantasy. And yet the end of the Trump Presidency is, by any measure, a signal moment in modern American history. These four years have wrought tragic consequences; there is no question that another four would have compounded the damage immeasurably.
Throughout his term, Trump openly waged war on democratic institutions and deployed a politics of conspicuous cruelty, bigotry, and division. He turned the Presidency into a reality show of lurid accusation and preening self-regard. But what finally made him vulnerable to defeat was his mishandling of the coronavirus pandemic, which has killed nearly a quarter of a million Americans. His disdain for scientific and medical expertise, his refusal to endorse even the most rudimentary preventive measures against the spread of the virus, was, according to medical experts, responsible for the needless deaths of tens of thousands. Perhaps the most emblematic sign of his heedlessness was the Rose Garden ceremony at which Trump announced his nomination of Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court; within days, it was clear that the ceremony, a predominantly mask-free affair, with people seated in tightly packed rows, had been a superspreader event.
The pandemic also served to heighten the difference in character between the two candidates. For many months, Trump betrayed little sense of loss. Fellow-feeling is not in his emotional vocabulary. At his rallies, he ranged between flippant and indifferent, unwilling to acknowledge the gravity of the pandemic in any recognizably human way. “We’re rounding the turn!” he declared again and again, as the death toll rose higher and a new wave of cases crested in hundreds of American towns and cities. For a fleeting moment, when he was ill himself, Trump pretended to experience a glimmer of sympathy for people who had died, been sick, or feared the virus. That soon passed.
To Biden, loss, and the recovery from loss, is the very condition of life. As a young man, he suffered the deaths of a daughter and his first wife in a car crash; more recently, his elder son died of brain cancer. Biden is a man of transparent flaws—regrettable political decisions during his long Senate career, a speaking style that often tips into bewildered verbosity—and yet in his public life he rarely fails to project a quality of empathy. That quality may have been as essential to his appeal as any policy proposal.
Trump could never bring himself to promise an orderly transfer of power. He now will doubtless cast blame, concoct conspiratorial reasons for his downfall, and, if past is prologue, compare the beneficence of his rule to that of Abraham Lincoln. It is hard to imagine him appearing at Biden’s Inauguration and behaving with even an ounce of grace. He knows well what follows, and he cannot bear it: Joe and Jill Biden will move into the White House, and he will retreat to Mar-a-Lago, where he could spend years fending off creditors, prosecutors, the Internal Revenue Service, and the judgment of history. Trump might develop a new media venture. He might even lay plans for a run in 2024. The Constitution allows it.


newyorker--2020-11-07--The Republicans Without Trump

The Republicans Without Trump

John Updike once conferred on Henry Bech , the Jewish novelist who was his comic alter ego , the Melville Medal , given “ to that American author who has maintained the most meaningful silence.
” If there were a political version of that award , a lot of prominent Republicans would be eligible for it this week .
Donald Trump said , loudly , that the election was being stolen from him .
Why isn ’ t the senior Republican leadership in Congress presenting a united front in support of Trump ?
Why did Mitch McConnell decline to go @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Rupert Murdoch ’ s media empire ?
You have to venture deep into Trump country—Eric , Donald , Jr. , Newt Gingrich , Rudy Giuliani—to find steadfast backing of the boss ’ s version of what ’ s going on .
A few Trump-loyalist elected officials are offering broad statements of support , but , fundamentally , Trump is leading his own charge .
Twenty years ago , in the chaos that followed the Presidential election , George W. Bush retreated to his ranch in Crawford , Texas , and remained almost completely @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s elders put on a unified show of force , from Dick Cheney and James Baker on down .
The direct involvement of the relatively inexperienced and excitable Bush was not required because the Republican Party as an institution was willing and able to go to war on his behalf .
At the present moment , this has to be a supposition , but it seems a plausible one : What if the leadership of the Republican Party regards the possibility of Trump ’ s leaving the White House with a certain @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was a major repudiation of the Party ’ s establishment .
His Presidency has represented an odd kind of bargain : the establishment got to make policy , at least on its core economic issues , because Trump doesn ’ t care , while Trump supplied the supporters that the establishment could no longer produce .
But the 2020 results might generate for them a pleasing tableau of a Republican-controlled Senate and Supreme Court , a thin Democratic majority in the House , control of most of the state legislatures—and no more mad @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Biden would not be able to push through a truly progressive agenda , but he ’ d provide enough material to enable a Republican challenger in 2024 to accuse him of being a puppet of the far left .
And then the G.O.P .
would control all three branches again .
The test of this theory will come in the next few days , as Trump ’ s chances seem more and more implausible , legally in the case of court challenges and empirically in the case of vote-fraud allegations .
Would we @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2016 , and then kissed his ring , earnestly calling for a period of national healing and closure ?
That would show that , at least in establishment circles , Trump never commanded any genuine loyalty .
It was always just the art of the deal .
You can see where Republican confidence about a Trump-less future might come from .
The G.O.P .
will wind up with more than seventy million votes , more than it has ever got in a Presidential election .
Isn ’ t it possible that many of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ than voting for Trump ?
Didn ’ t the Party make inroads with Black and Latino voters that somebody who isn ’ t Trump could surely deepen ?
Couldn ’ t some of the white voters Biden took from Trump this time be retaken next time , when there isn ’ t a raging pandemic being handled by a Republican President who is manifestly unequal to the task ?
Since Trump was elected , we have had a national conversation , for the first time in many years , about whether the United @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s healthy to think about these issues ; the question is how the country will look to us when we don ’ t have a malignant bully in the White House .
If you didn ’ t know who was running , Tuesday would have looked like a pretty good day for a democracy : likely the highest turnout in more than a century , in the middle of a pandemic ; no notorious incidents of wrongdoing around the voting process ; a lot of grassroots activism ; two venerable major parties @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the widespread fears of post-election violence by the far right not , as of yet , realized ; general acceptance of the result , except by the President and his enablers .
Many people who despise Trump , and who took the polls at face value , spent the early hours of Election Night in despair over the spectacle of so many Americans voting for a party headed by him .
How could they ?
The magnitude of the Republican vote poses a real challenge for the Democratic Party .
One can conceive @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of authoritarianism , but that doesn ’ t help to build a better political future .
Many Trump voters are people who were willing to vote for Democrats , including Barack Obama , not so long ago , and whose parents and grandparents did so unquestioningly .
Many seem also to have switched from voting for Trump in 2016 to voting for Biden this time .
People are complicated .
They connect to politics at multiple points , some positive and some negative .
It ’ s up to politicians to find out @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to make democratic politics a zone of hope and possibility .
A Democratic strategy that imagines a cohort of the college-educated leading a mass of minorities , whose loyalty it can take for granted , is a patronizing fantasy .
The Trump era appears to be at an end , praise the Lord .
One way to understand it is as a sign that both parties missed the deep discontent of many Americans on the issue of how the global economy of the twenty-first century has affected their lives .
Politics that addresses @ @ @ @ @ @ @ grievance politics .
Both parties have an opportunity—an obligation , really—to show that they are committed to using politics to build a society that offers justice and opportunity to ordinary people .
Republicans who may be relieved by the prospect of Trump ’ s exit have to work on the project of appealing to voters without relying on resentments and conspiracy theories .
Democrats have work to do , too .
What seemed an easily winning hand for them wasn ’ t .
The Democrats do deserve congratulations for putting a great deal @ @ @ @ @ @ @ They were not complacent about what it would take to beat Trump .
Their task now is to find policies , and ways of talking about politics , that are more widely appealing .
Biden ’ s exploration of a more full-throated economic liberalism than his party has offered in thirty years was only a start .
It obviously helped , but not enough to produce the unqualified victory that people were expecting .
The Party has to do more .
Read More About the 2020 Election • Trump has survived impeachment , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lawsuits .
His luck may well end now that Joe Biden will be the next President .
• What happens if Trump fights the election results ?
• Here is what you can do if Trump stages a coup .
• For the G.O.P.
, the future may look like Florida , which is becoming less white but not much less conservative .
Can Republicans become a multiracial working-class party ?
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John Updike once conferred on Henry Bech, the Jewish novelist who was his comic alter ego, the Melville Medal, given “to that American author who has maintained the most meaningful silence.” If there were a political version of that award, a lot of prominent Republicans would be eligible for it this week. Donald Trump said, loudly, that the election was being stolen from him. Why isn’t the senior Republican leadership in Congress presenting a united front in support of Trump? Why did Mitch McConnell decline to go anywhere near charging fraud? Where is Rupert Murdoch’s media empire? You have to venture deep into Trump country—Eric, Donald, Jr., Newt Gingrich, Rudy Giuliani—to find steadfast backing of the boss’s version of what’s going on. A few Trump-loyalist elected officials are offering broad statements of support, but, fundamentally, Trump is leading his own charge.
Twenty years ago, in the chaos that followed the Presidential election, George W. Bush retreated to his ranch in Crawford, Texas, and remained almost completely invisible for weeks. But his party’s elders put on a unified show of force, from Dick Cheney and James Baker on down. The direct involvement of the relatively inexperienced and excitable Bush was not required because the Republican Party as an institution was willing and able to go to war on his behalf.
At the present moment, this has to be a supposition, but it seems a plausible one: What if the leadership of the Republican Party regards the possibility of Trump’s leaving the White House with a certain private relish? Trump’s nomination was a major repudiation of the Party’s establishment. His Presidency has represented an odd kind of bargain: the establishment got to make policy, at least on its core economic issues, because Trump doesn’t care, while Trump supplied the supporters that the establishment could no longer produce. But the 2020 results might generate for them a pleasing tableau of a Republican-controlled Senate and Supreme Court, a thin Democratic majority in the House, control of most of the state legislatures—and no more mad king in the White House. President Biden would not be able to push through a truly progressive agenda, but he’d provide enough material to enable a Republican challenger in 2024 to accuse him of being a puppet of the far left. And then the G.O.P. would control all three branches again.
The test of this theory will come in the next few days, as Trump’s chances seem more and more implausible, legally in the case of court challenges and empirically in the case of vote-fraud allegations. Would we then see Republicans who opposed Trump in 2016, and then kissed his ring, earnestly calling for a period of national healing and closure? That would show that, at least in establishment circles, Trump never commanded any genuine loyalty. It was always just the art of the deal.
You can see where Republican confidence about a Trump-less future might come from. The G.O.P. will wind up with more than seventy million votes, more than it has ever got in a Presidential election. Isn’t it possible that many of these people were voting Republican, rather than voting for Trump? Didn’t the Party make inroads with Black and Latino voters that somebody who isn’t Trump could surely deepen? Couldn’t some of the white voters Biden took from Trump this time be retaken next time, when there isn’t a raging pandemic being handled by a Republican President who is manifestly unequal to the task?
Since Trump was elected, we have had a national conversation, for the first time in many years, about whether the United States is a well-functioning democracy. It’s healthy to think about these issues; the question is how the country will look to us when we don’t have a malignant bully in the White House. If you didn’t know who was running, Tuesday would have looked like a pretty good day for a democracy: likely the highest turnout in more than a century, in the middle of a pandemic; no notorious incidents of wrongdoing around the voting process; a lot of grassroots activism; two venerable major parties, offering voters a real choice; the widespread fears of post-election violence by the far right not, as of yet, realized; general acceptance of the result, except by the President and his enablers.
Many people who despise Trump, and who took the polls at face value, spent the early hours of Election Night in despair over the spectacle of so many Americans voting for a party headed by him. How could they? The magnitude of the Republican vote poses a real challenge for the Democratic Party. One can conceive of these voters as racists or fans of authoritarianism, but that doesn’t help to build a better political future. Many Trump voters are people who were willing to vote for Democrats, including Barack Obama, not so long ago, and whose parents and grandparents did so unquestioningly. Many seem also to have switched from voting for Trump in 2016 to voting for Biden this time. People are complicated. They connect to politics at multiple points, some positive and some negative. It’s up to politicians to find out what those points are and to try to make democratic politics a zone of hope and possibility. A Democratic strategy that imagines a cohort of the college-educated leading a mass of minorities, whose loyalty it can take for granted, is a patronizing fantasy.
The Trump era appears to be at an end, praise the Lord. One way to understand it is as a sign that both parties missed the deep discontent of many Americans on the issue of how the global economy of the twenty-first century has affected their lives. Politics that addresses grievances doesn’t have to be grievance politics. Both parties have an opportunity—an obligation, really—to show that they are committed to using politics to build a society that offers justice and opportunity to ordinary people. Republicans who may be relieved by the prospect of Trump’s exit have to work on the project of appealing to voters without relying on resentments and conspiracy theories. Democrats have work to do, too. What seemed an easily winning hand for them wasn’t.
The Democrats do deserve congratulations for putting a great deal of organizing energy into this election. They were not complacent about what it would take to beat Trump. Their task now is to find policies, and ways of talking about politics, that are more widely appealing. Biden’s exploration of a more full-throated economic liberalism than his party has offered in thirty years was only a start. It obviously helped, but not enough to produce the unqualified victory that people were expecting. The Party has to do more.
Read More About the 2020 Election


newyorker--2020-11-08--A Brief History of Menstrual “His”-teria

From “ The Big She-Bang : The Herstory of the Universe According to God the Mother , ” by Marisa @ @ @ @ @ by Harper Wave .

From “The Big She-Bang: The Herstory of the Universe According to God the Mother,” by Marisa Acocella, to be published by Harper Wave.


newyorker--2020-11-08--Sunday Reading: The Children’s Hour

Sunday Reading: The Children’s Hour

In 2009 , David Sedaris published a piece in The New Yorker about his best childhood friend and their mutual obsession with wildlife , particularly sea turtles .
Part of his youthful focus on the majesty of sea turtles , he wrote , had to do with “ the feeling of being accepted , which is to say , not feared.
” But , like all stories of adolescence , Sedaris ’ s narrative contains multiple layers—and , as it unfolds , he immerses us in a remarkable tale of nostalgia and regret .
This week , we ’ re @ @ @ @ @ @ @ explore the inner lives of children .
In “ Bumping Into Mr. Ravioli , ” Adam Gopnik profiles the very energetic imaginary friend of his young daughter , Olivia .
In “ Six Glimpses of the Past , ” Janet Malcolm explores moments from her childhood as reflected in early family photographs .
In “ When I Grow Up , ” Rebecca Mead visits a theme park in Mexico City where children spend hours role-playing as adults .
Finally , in “ My Mother ’ s Dreams for Her Son , and All @ @ @ @ @ @ @ about growing up in Brooklyn and the racial injustices he witnessed there .
Life as an adult can be rough—and the process of becoming one presents its own unique rewards and challenges .

Photograph by Jim Goldberg / Magnum
In 2009, David Sedaris published a piece in The New Yorker about his best childhood friend and their mutual obsession with wildlife, particularly sea turtles. Part of his youthful focus on the majesty of sea turtles, he wrote, had to do with “the feeling of being accepted, which is to say, not feared.” But, like all stories of adolescence, Sedaris’s narrative contains multiple layers—and, as it unfolds, he immerses us in a remarkable tale of nostalgia and regret. This week, we’re bringing you a selection of pieces that explore the inner lives of children. In “Bumping Into Mr. Ravioli,” Adam Gopnik profiles the very energetic imaginary friend of his young daughter, Olivia. In “Six Glimpses of the Past,” Janet Malcolm explores moments from her childhood as reflected in early family photographs. In “When I Grow Up,” Rebecca Mead visits a theme park in Mexico City where children spend hours role-playing as adults. Finally, in “My Mother’s Dreams for Her Son, and All Black Children,” Hilton Als writes about growing up in Brooklyn and the racial injustices he witnessed there. Life as an adult can be rough—and the process of becoming one presents its own unique rewards and challenges.
— David Remnick
Sea turtles and me.
Illustration by Jules Feiffer
A theory of busyness, and its hero.
Photograph courtesy Janet Malcolm
On photography and memory.
The theme-park chain where children pretend to be adults.
Courtesy Hilton Als
She longed for black people in America not to be forever refugees—confined by borders that they did not create and by a penal system that killed them before they died.