newyorker--2020-09-30--No Comment: The Debate Is a Reminder That, Right Now, Words Don’t Mean Much

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Sasha DiGiulian is an internationally renowned rock climber based in Colorado , with first ascents and world-championship medals to prove it .
She ’ s also a member of a team of athletes from Protect our Winters that is trying to register young voters in the run-up to the November balloting .
Our conversation has been edited and condensed for clarity .
You ’ ve spent a lot of time in the world ’ s wild places .
Can you @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I ’ ve seen the effects of climate change both in my own personal experiences as well as with those of my close friends .
I ’ ve lost multiple friends in avalanche accidents that occurred due to a warming snowpack .
It ’ s hard to pin all rockfall on climate change ; however more and more there are less consistent weather patterns because of the changing climate .
On an ice-climbing expedition to the Upper Peninsula in Michigan , I saw firsthand the volatile shift in the integrity of an ice @ @ @ @ @ @ @ life and those with me .
In many ways , both in my sport but also in day-to-day life , like the wildfires sweeping the West and resulting smoke filling the air here in Colorado , the warming planet is having a major impact .
So what do you say to the kids camped in a van at Joshua Tree or Camp 4 to get them to actually mail in their ballots , or to take a day off from climbing and actually drive to the polls ?
Obviously , they ’ ve @ @ @ @ @ @ @ toward facilitating their passion for climbing .
And so I ’ d tell them that , in order to continue to be able to access places like Joshua Tree or Yosemite , they need to be willing to speak out for the future of the outdoors .
The places we love to climb and find our solace are under threat from the effects of climate change and fossil-fuel-industry-backed legislation .
The only way to protect them is to vote for politicians who will champion , or at least vote for , policies that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lands .
If every person who recreates outside , all fifty million of us , turns out to vote , we can have a tremendous impact in insuring a future for outdoor recreation .
Protect Our Winters has made that really easy with MakeADamnPlan.org , where they help you register , request a mail ballot , and return it in time , all in one place .
So you don ’ t even have to take a day off to make it to the polls , you just have to make a plan @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the future of our planet and for the way that we want our freedom and safety within the outdoors to thrive , that everyone of age votes , and recognizes that it is worthy of a rest day ( if needed ) to cast a ballot .
When you took a stand in the 2016 election against Donald Trump , people on social media told you to “ crawl under a rock , ” or “ focus on climbing , sweetie.
” Do you ever think , I could do without all this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I believe in the power that sport has in changing the world , and in its ability to connect communities .
I know that , as a professional climber with a large platform , it ’ s my responsibility to take an active stance on issues affecting our world rather than simply acknowledging them .
I ’ m proud to be an active advocate with organizations like Protect Our Winters , the American Alpine Club , the Access Fund , the Women ’ s Sport Foundations , Right to Play , and Up2Us @ @ @ @ @ @ @ informed opinions that can make a difference .
I refuse to be a passive bystander .
What ’ s the point of having a platform if I don ’ t use it to amplify the causes that I believe in ?
Don ’ t expect a retreat from the new high level of climate disasters : a recent paper from an Oxford professor argues that we now live in an era of “ regression to the tail ” instead of “ regression to the mean.
” A Times survey of climate scientists makes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ statistical terms .
The BBC offers a short but comprehensive assessment of all the ways that the fossil-fuel industry has lied about climate change over the past three decades .
In August , I wrote about a new training program that turns North Dakota ’ s oil-field workers into wind-turbine technicians .
Jeff Berardelli , of CBS , covered the same story from a much better angle—three hundred feet up .
Anyone who cares about the wilder corners of this Earth , and the indigenous people and animals that have successfully inhabited them @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Nelson , a remarkable anthropologist and superb writer who died last year .
A fine introduction to his life can be found in a new biography , “ Raven ’ s Witness , ” by Hank Lentfer .
“ Kiss the Ground , ” a new film about soil and carbon , débuted on Netflix last week .
It features , among others , the Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady ( that feels weird to write ) and the actress Rosario Dawson .
A new Oxfam study found that the richest one @ @ @ @ @ @ @ gases to the atmosphere than the poorest fifty per cent of humanity .
Think about that for a minute .
A dozen big cities , from Berlin to Durban to Vancouver , announced plans to divest their municipal assets from fossil fuels .
The musician Kenny White , who has produced hundreds of commercials over the years , is a nimble and clever songwriter—and his new update of his tune “ Never Like This ” is a good prelude to election season .

Subscribers to The Climate Crisis newsletter received this piece in their in-boxes. Sign up to receive future installments.
Apologies. I had prepared a detailed and careful account of the emerging debate over carbon pricing for this week’s column, but, after watching Tuesday night’s debate, I’m pulling it for now. We are not in a moment when nuanced analysis matters. The President, with the cursed energy of a true narcissist, is trying to bully and bluster his way to another ruinous term. If he gets it, our federal government will spend the next critical years stoking the fires that are now heating our planet. I’m going to spend the rest of the week making phone calls for his challenger.
Passing the Mic
Sasha DiGiulian is an internationally renowned rock climber based in Colorado, with first ascents and world-championship medals to prove it. She’s also a member of a team of athletes from Protect our Winters that is trying to register young voters in the run-up to the November balloting. Our conversation has been edited and condensed for clarity.
You’ve spent a lot of time in the world’s wild places. Can you see the face of climate change?
I’ve seen the effects of climate change both in my own personal experiences as well as with those of my close friends. I’ve lost multiple friends in avalanche accidents that occurred due to a warming snowpack. It’s hard to pin all rockfall on climate change; however more and more there are less consistent weather patterns because of the changing climate. On an ice-climbing expedition to the Upper Peninsula in Michigan, I saw firsthand the volatile shift in the integrity of an ice climb that could’ve endangered my life and those with me. In many ways, both in my sport but also in day-to-day life, like the wildfires sweeping the West and resulting smoke filling the air here in Colorado, the warming planet is having a major impact.
So what do you say to the kids camped in a van at Joshua Tree or Camp 4 to get them to actually mail in their ballots, or to take a day off from climbing and actually drive to the polls?
Obviously, they’ve invested time, energy, and money toward facilitating their passion for climbing. And so I’d tell them that, in order to continue to be able to access places like Joshua Tree or Yosemite, they need to be willing to speak out for the future of the outdoors. The places we love to climb and find our solace are under threat from the effects of climate change and fossil-fuel-industry-backed legislation. The only way to protect them is to vote for politicians who will champion, or at least vote for, policies that will slow global warming and protect public lands. If every person who recreates outside, all fifty million of us, turns out to vote, we can have a tremendous impact in insuring a future for outdoor recreation. Protect Our Winters has made that really easy with MakeADamnPlan.org, where they help you register, request a mail ballot, and return it in time, all in one place. So you don’t even have to take a day off to make it to the polls, you just have to make a plan early. I would hope that for the future of our planet and for the way that we want our freedom and safety within the outdoors to thrive, that everyone of age votes, and recognizes that it is worthy of a rest day (if needed) to cast a ballot.
When you took a stand in the 2016 election against Donald Trump, people on social media told you to “crawl under a rock,” or “focus on climbing, sweetie.” Do you ever think, I could do without all this politics? What keeps you engaged?
I believe in the power that sport has in changing the world, and in its ability to connect communities. I know that, as a professional climber with a large platform, it’s my responsibility to take an active stance on issues affecting our world rather than simply acknowledging them. I’m proud to be an active advocate with organizations like Protect Our Winters, the American Alpine Club, the Access Fund, the Women’s Sport Foundations, Right to Play, and Up2Us Sports, and know that I have informed opinions that can make a difference. I refuse to be a passive bystander. What’s the point of having a platform if I don’t use it to amplify the causes that I believe in?
Climate School
Don’t expect a retreat from the new high level of climate disasters: a recent paper from an Oxford professor argues that we now live in an era of “regression to the tail” instead of “regression to the mean.” A Times survey of climate scientists makes the same argument in journalistic rather than statistical terms.
The BBC offers a short but comprehensive assessment of all the ways that the fossil-fuel industry has lied about climate change over the past three decades.
In August, I wrote about a new training program that turns North Dakota’s oil-field workers into wind-turbine technicians. Jeff Berardelli, of CBS, covered the same story from a much better angle—three hundred feet up.
Anyone who cares about the wilder corners of this Earth, and the indigenous people and animals that have successfully inhabited them, should know the work of Richard Nelson, a remarkable anthropologist and superb writer who died last year. A fine introduction to his life can be found in a new biography, “Raven’s Witness,” by Hank Lentfer.
“Kiss the Ground,” a new film about soil and carbon, débuted on Netflix last week. It features, among others, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady (that feels weird to write) and the actress Rosario Dawson.
Scoreboard
A new Oxfam study found that the richest one per cent of humans contributed more greenhouse gases to the atmosphere than the poorest fifty per cent of humanity. Think about that for a minute.
A dozen big cities, from Berlin to Durban to Vancouver, announced plans to divest their municipal assets from fossil fuels.
Warming Up
The musician Kenny White, who has produced hundreds of commercials over the years, is a nimble and clever songwriter—and his new update of his tune “Never Like This” is a good prelude to election season.


newyorker--2020-09-30--Trump Somehow Not Likable Even After Being Coached by Chris Christie and Rudy Giuliani

CLEVELAND , OHIO ( The Borowitz Report ) —Donald J. Trump somehow seemed unlikeable and obnoxious in his first 2020 debate performance , despite extensive pre-debate coaching from Chris Christie and Rudy Giuliani , campaign staffers have confirmed .
After the debate , staffers were baffled that Trump could appear so off-putting and odious after being prepped by two of the nation ’ s most beloved and appealing public figures .
“ Call it an aura , if you will , or a kind of magic , but Chris and Rudy have that special sauce that makes people want to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
“ We all thought that , by putting Trump in the same room with them , some of their fairy dust would rub off on him.
” “ It didn ’ t happen , ” the aide said .
“ Chalk it up to the mysteries of politics.
” In the wake of Trump ’ s abysmal performance , the campaign is replacing Christie and Giuliani as coaches for the second debate .
“ It ’ s more important than ever to make Trump likable , and that ’ s why we @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Devin Nunes , ” the aide said .

CLEVELAND, OHIO (The Borowitz Report)—Donald J. Trump somehow seemed unlikeable and obnoxious in his first 2020 debate performance, despite extensive pre-debate coaching from Chris Christie and Rudy Giuliani, campaign staffers have confirmed.
After the debate, staffers were baffled that Trump could appear so off-putting and odious after being prepped by two of the nation’s most beloved and appealing public figures.
“Call it an aura, if you will, or a kind of magic, but Chris and Rudy have that special sauce that makes people want to hug them,” one aide said. “We all thought that, by putting Trump in the same room with them, some of their fairy dust would rub off on him.”
“It didn’t happen,” the aide said. “Chalk it up to the mysteries of politics.”
In the wake of Trump’s abysmal performance, the campaign is replacing Christie and Giuliani as coaches for the second debate. “It’s more important than ever to make Trump likable, and that’s why we’re bringing in Mitch McConnell and Devin Nunes,” the aide said.
Read More Satire from the Borowitz Report


newyorker--2020-09-30--Azuma Makoto’s Provocative Botanical Sculptures, in “Flower Punk”

Who is the most audacious floral sculptor alive ?
If you guessed Jeff Koons , whose “ Puppy ” requires some thirty-eight-thousand flowers to build , you ’ re wrong .
The correct answer is Azuma Makoto , the Japanese botanical artist who is the star of “ Flower Punk , ” Alison Klayman ’ s delightful , and unexpectedly moving , documentary film .
Koons ’ s terrier may rise more than forty feet in the air , but Azuma ’ s work is literally stratospheric : in 2014 , he launched an avant-ikebana arrangement of orchids , lilies @ @ @ @ @ @ @ atmosphere .
He has also submerged his designs more than a thousand metres below the surface of the sea , an odyssey that took three years to get right .
Archival footage of both projects appears in Klayman ’ s half-hour-long portrait , which reveals more than a florist-provocateur—like many punks , at heart Azuma is a poet , whose true subject is the fleeting nature of life .
As Klayman described Azuma to me in a recent e-mail , “ He ’ s struggling with how to draw out the most vitality @ @ @ @ @ @ @ moving towards death and decay.
” This is the great conundrum conveyed by floral art through the ages , from the collars woven of olive leaves , cornflowers , and poppies buried in King Tutankhamun ’ s tomb , to the soon-to-wilt blooms in the lush still-life paintings of the Dutch Golden Age .
Azuma , who grew up in a country village in Fukuoka Prefecture , was a punk before he was a florist .
In the nineties , he left home for Tokyo with teen dreams of making it big with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Now in his mid-forties , he still looks the part of a boyish musician , with his bleached-blond hair , mad-scientist lab coat , and angsty resting face .
He found his true calling by accident when , strapped for cash , he spotted a sign advertising jobs at a neighborhood florist .
His enthusiasm for his new work was contagious , and soon his bandmate and high-school friend Shiinoki Shunsuke—who is now a botanical photographer and Azuma ’ s business partner—had a gig washing buckets .
In 2002 , the pair @ @ @ @ @ @ @ first two years , the business was so unsuccessful that it inspired an inadvertent Zen koan : Is it a store if it has zero customers ?
Around this time , Azuma , always more artist than florist , was trying to exhibit his edgy arrangements in Tokyo galleries , with little success .
So , true to punk ’ s D.I.Y .
ethos , he started to put on his own shows .
Glistening slabs of raw meat festooned with blood-red flowers became a Grand Guignol hanging garden ; an unpotted bonsai @ @ @ @ @ @ @ animate cousin of a Koons basketball ; the stems of abundant white lilies were replaced with shiny industrial hardware , like so many horticultural cyborgs .
As the artist reminisces about his early projects to Klayman in the film , “ Looking back , those works were very bold—bold and a little absurd.
” His experimental approach caught the eye of the fashion world , and commissions followed ; he has since created eye-catching installations for such high-profile clients as Fendi , Hermès , and Dries Van Noten , whose runway he lined @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ice .
For all his daredevilry , conceptual innovation , and commercial success , what ultimately makes Azuma such a riveting subject is surprisingly simple : his reverence .
The sixteen-hundred-year-old ritual art form of ikebana isn ’ t mentioned in Klayman ’ s film , but the idea of flowers as contemplative offerings is never far from Azuma ’ s mind , even when he ’ s wielding a blowtorch .
In the film ’ s most affecting passage , he identifies the 2011 earthquake and tsunami as a turning point in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ he conceived for a school in Fukushima as “ a prayer , a way to remember.
” Klayman , who has directed two previous documentaries about artists—Ai Weiwei and the centenarian painter Carmen Herrera—characterized her experience with Azuma as being a “ sanctuary.
” This isn ’ t only because of the grace and strength of her subject ; it ’ s also about who he ’ s not .
Klayman shot “ Flower Punk ” on a break from filming her long-form documentary , “ The Brink , ” for which she @ @ @ @ @ @ @ House strategist Steve Bannon .
“ Working on ‘ Flower Punk ’ was a chance to get out of that milieu , ” she told me .
“ It was psychically darker and had me constantly engaged with politics and breaking news .
It was like a refreshing reset to be surrounded by and contemplating beauty .
”

Who is the most audacious floral sculptor alive? If you guessed Jeff Koons, whose “Puppy” requires some thirty-eight-thousand flowers to build, you’re wrong. The correct answer is Azuma Makoto, the Japanese botanical artist who is the star of “Flower Punk,” Alison Klayman’s delightful, and unexpectedly moving, documentary film. Koons’s terrier may rise more than forty feet in the air, but Azuma’s work is literally stratospheric: in 2014, he launched an avant-ikebana arrangement of orchids, lilies, hydrangeas, and irises into the atmosphere. He has also submerged his designs more than a thousand metres below the surface of the sea, an odyssey that took three years to get right. Archival footage of both projects appears in Klayman’s half-hour-long portrait, which reveals more than a florist-provocateur—like many punks, at heart Azuma is a poet, whose true subject is the fleeting nature of life. As Klayman described Azuma to me in a recent e-mail, “He’s struggling with how to draw out the most vitality and beauty in something that is always moving towards death and decay.” This is the great conundrum conveyed by floral art through the ages, from the collars woven of olive leaves, cornflowers, and poppies buried in King Tutankhamun’s tomb, to the soon-to-wilt blooms in the lush still-life paintings of the Dutch Golden Age.
Azuma, who grew up in a country village in Fukuoka Prefecture, was a punk before he was a florist. In the nineties, he left home for Tokyo with teen dreams of making it big with the band in which he played bass. Now in his mid-forties, he still looks the part of a boyish musician, with his bleached-blond hair, mad-scientist lab coat, and angsty resting face. He found his true calling by accident when, strapped for cash, he spotted a sign advertising jobs at a neighborhood florist. His enthusiasm for his new work was contagious, and soon his bandmate and high-school friend Shiinoki Shunsuke—who is now a botanical photographer and Azuma’s business partner—had a gig washing buckets. In 2002, the pair opened their own shop. In their first two years, the business was so unsuccessful that it inspired an inadvertent Zen koan: Is it a store if it has zero customers? Around this time, Azuma, always more artist than florist, was trying to exhibit his edgy arrangements in Tokyo galleries, with little success. So, true to punk’s D.I.Y. ethos, he started to put on his own shows. Glistening slabs of raw meat festooned with blood-red flowers became a Grand Guignol hanging garden; an unpotted bonsai tree floating inside a tank was the animate cousin of a Koons basketball; the stems of abundant white lilies were replaced with shiny industrial hardware, like so many horticultural cyborgs. As the artist reminisces about his early projects to Klayman in the film, “Looking back, those works were very bold—bold and a little absurd.” His experimental approach caught the eye of the fashion world, and commissions followed; he has since created eye-catching installations for such high-profile clients as Fendi, Hermès, and Dries Van Noten, whose runway he lined with colorful arrangements suspended in blocks of ice.
For all his daredevilry, conceptual innovation, and commercial success, what ultimately makes Azuma such a riveting subject is surprisingly simple: his reverence. The sixteen-hundred-year-old ritual art form of ikebana isn’t mentioned in Klayman’s film, but the idea of flowers as contemplative offerings is never far from Azuma’s mind, even when he’s wielding a blowtorch. In the film’s most affecting passage, he identifies the 2011 earthquake and tsunami as a turning point in his art, describing a permanent installation he conceived for a school in Fukushima as “a prayer, a way to remember.” Klayman, who has directed two previous documentaries about artists—Ai Weiwei and the centenarian painter Carmen Herrera—characterized her experience with Azuma as being a “sanctuary.” This isn’t only because of the grace and strength of her subject; it’s also about who he’s not. Klayman shot “Flower Punk” on a break from filming her long-form documentary, “The Brink,” for which she spent thirteen months tailing the former White House strategist Steve Bannon. “Working on ‘Flower Punk’ was a chance to get out of that milieu,” she told me. “It was psychically darker and had me constantly engaged with politics and breaking news. It was like a refreshing reset to be surrounded by and contemplating beauty.”


newyorker--2020-10-01--The Secret History of Kimberly Guilfoyle’s Departure from Fox

In the 2020 campaign , Trump has spotlighted no woman more brightly than Guilfoyle .
She was given an opening-night speaking slot at the Republican National Convention .
And this fall Guilfoyle , who is Donald Trump , Jr. , ’ s girlfriend , has been crisscrossing the country as a Trump surrogate , on what is billed as the “ Four More Tour.
” At a recent “ Women for Trump ” rally in Pennsylvania , Guilfoyle claimed that the President was creating “ eighteen hundred new female-owned businesses in the United States a day , ” and praised @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , she said , was supported by “ single mothers like myself.
” Guilfoyle has maintained that her decision to move from television news to a political campaign was entirely voluntary .
In fact , Fox News forced her out in July , 2018—several years before her contract ’ s expiration date .
At the time , she was a co-host of the political chat show “ The Five.
” Media reports suggested that she had been accused of workplace impropriety , including displaying lewd pictures of male genitalia to colleagues , but @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Guilfoyle publicly denied any wrongdoing , and last year a lawyer representing her told The New Yorker that “ any suggestion ” she had “ engaged in misconduct at Fox is patently false.
” But , as I reported at the time , shortly after Guilfoyle left her job , Fox secretly paid an undisclosed sum to the assistant , who no longer works at the company .
Recently , two well-informed sources told me that Fox , in order to avoid going to trial , had agreed to pay the woman upward @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the specific accusations against Guilfoyle have remained largely hidden .
The draft complaint , which was never filed in court , is covered by a nondisclosure agreement .
The former assistant has not been publicly identified , and , out of respect for the rights of alleged victims of sexual harassment , The New Yorker is honoring her confidentiality .
Reached for comment , she said , “ I wish you well .
But I have nothing to say.
” The woman was hired in 2015 , just out of college , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and another former Fox host , Eric Bolling .
According to a dozen well-informed sources familiar with her complaints , the assistant alleged that Guilfoyle , her direct supervisor , subjected her frequently to degrading , abusive , and sexually inappropriate behavior ; among other things , she said that she was frequently required to work at Guilfoyle ’ s New York apartment while the Fox host displayed herself naked , and was shown photographs of the genitalia of men with whom Guilfoyle had had sexual relations .
The draft complaint also alleged @ @ @ @ @ @ @ her sex life , and on one occasion demanded a massage of her bare thighs ; other times , she said , Guilfoyle told her to submit to a Fox employee ’ s demands for sexual favors , encouraged her to sleep with wealthy and powerful men , asked her to critique her naked body , demanded that she share a room with her on business trips , required her to sleep over at her apartment , and exposed herself to her , making her feel deeply uncomfortable .
As serious as the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , equally disturbing was what the assistant described as a coverup attempt by Guilfoyle , whose conduct was about to come under investigation by a team of outside lawyers .
In July , 2016 , the network had hired the New York-based law firm Paul , Weiss to investigate sexual misconduct at the company , which , under the leadership of Roger Ailes , had a long history of flagrant harassment and gender discrimination .
According to those familiar with the assistant ’ s draft complaint , during a phone call on August @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Guilfoyle tried to buy her silence , offering to arrange a payment to her if she agreed to lie to the Paul , Weiss lawyers about her experiences .
The alleged offering of hush money brings to mind Trump ’ s payments to the porn star Stormy Daniels , in order to cover up his sexual impropriety .
By 2017 , the Paul , Weiss lawyers had begun investigating accusations of workplace sexual misconduct involving Eric Bolling , with whom Guilfoyle shared the assistant .
Guilfoyle and Bolling were close , and it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ assistant accused Bolling of sexual harassment—as in fact she did—Guilfoyle ’ s conduct would come under scrutiny next .
( Bolling , whose employment Fox ended in September , 2017 , declined to comment ; he has denied any wrongdoing , and is now a host at Sinclair Broadcast Group . )
According to the assistant , as the investigation into Bolling gained momentum , Guilfoyle told her that she needed to know what the assistant would say if she were asked about sexual harassment , and warned her that she could cause @ @ @ @ @ @ @ thing .
Guilfoyle , she said , told her that , in exchange for demonstrating what Guilfoyle called loyalty , she would work out a payment to take care of her—possibly , she said , with funds from Bolling .
The assistant alleged that Guilfoyle mentioned sums as large as a million dollars , and also other inducements , including a private-plane ride to Rome , a percentage of Guilfoyle ’ s future speaking fees , and an on-air reporting opportunity .
People close to Guilfoyle called the assistant ’ s allegation untrue @ @ @ @ @ @ @ she would fabricate such a false claim .
But a well-informed source independently confirmed to me that Guilfoyle had discussed the topic of raising hush money .
When the assistant declined the offer of money , Guilfoyle warned—in a manner that the assistant regarded as threatening—that , if she spoke candidly to the lawyers , some aspects of the assistant ’ s private life that Guilfoyle knew about might be exposed .
In fact , as I reported on this story , associates of Guilfoyle ’ s contacted me , offering personal details @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of damaging her credibility and leading me not to publish this report .
Guilfoyle declined to be interviewed for this story but issued a statement : “ In my 30-year career working for the SF District Attorney ’ s Office , the LA District Attorney ’ s Office , in media and in politics , I have never engaged in any workplace misconduct of any kind .
During my career , I have served as a mentor to countless women , with many of whom I remain exceptionally close to this day.
” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that he would not comment .
According to the former assistant ’ s account , she declined what she regarded as Guilfoyle ’ s attempts to buy her off , and refused to conceal evidence or lie .
Instead , she told the legal team at Paul , Weiss that both Guilfoyle and Bolling had sexually harassed her .
Multiple people in whom the assistant confided at the time say she expressed concern that Guilfoyle might retaliate against her ; Guilfoyle had boasted of her high-level connections inside Fox ’ s legal office @ @ @ @ @ @ @ enemies ’ reputations .
The assistant ’ s concerns had mounted to the point that she sought legal help .
Meanwhile , her allegations sparked months of investigation into Guilfoyle ’ s behavior by Fox ’ s human-resources department , and eventually resulted in Guilfoyle ’ s negotiated departure from the company .
Tim Murtaugh , a spokesman for the Trump campaign , declined to comment on the appropriateness of Guilfoyle overseeing the Trump campaign ’ s finances , given the allegations about hush money and harassment levied against her by her former @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s lawyer .
Michele Hirshman , the partner at Paul , Weiss who oversaw the investigation at Fox , didn ’ t respond to my requests for comment .
The Washington attorney Gerson Zweifach , who served as 21st Century Fox ’ s general counsel and legal adviser on the sexual-harassment probe , also declined to comment , saying , “ I can ’ t be of assistance here , for all the reasons you might expect.
” A spokesperson at Fox declined to comment on Guilfoyle ’ s departure from the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that Guilfoyle had received full payment for the remaining time on the contract , the spokesperson said that they were “ not accurate.
” The New Yorker , however , was able to independently confirm several of the assistant ’ s accusations .
The allegation that she was required to work at Guilfoyle ’ s apartment while Guilfoyle was barely clothed or naked was substantiated by several of the assistant ’ s confidants , including an eyewitness , who recalls being surprised by the sight .
“ It was provocative in a way @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from this person , ” the eyewitness told me .
One current and one former Fox employee confirmed the assistant ’ s allegation that Guilfoyle had often shared lewd images , noting that she had shown photographs of male genitalia to them , too—some of romantic partners , others of fans .
Another former employee described Guilfoyle showing pornographic videos in the office .
Guilfoyle ’ s graphic sexual talk so upset hair-and-makeup artists at Fox that they lodged an internal complaint , triggering an investigation by the company .
A former Fox @ @ @ @ @ @ @ said , “ It was worse than gross—it put other women at Fox in such a terrible position.
” She explained that , as someone at a junior level , she felt afraid to criticize Guilfoyle , who was a powerful star with high-ranking friends at the network .
At the same time , the former colleague didn ’ t want to be complicit in behavior that she regarded as crude , unprofessional , and legally troubling .
“ It created an environment that was detrimental to young women , ” the former @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , who has socialized with Guilfoyle , defended Guilfoyle ’ s right to take whatever pictures she wanted , and to share them outside of work with her friends , but argued , “ You can ’ t expose an assistant to that.
” A confidant of the former assistant—who also knows Guilfoyle well—agreed , saying of her , “ They really put her through a wringer .
It was a justifiable complaint .
She ’ s a very nice kid .
She ’ s not a nefarious person .
It was a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ who observed the dynamic between Guilfoyle and the assistant said , “ It was an insane , abusive relationship , ” adding , “ Rather than being a mentor , she was an afflictor.
” And yet another close observer who still works at Fox told me that the assistant was “ one of the nicest , hard-working people—she was young and full of ambition , but by the time she left she was just broken.
” Yet the assistant has alleged , both in her draft complaint and to confidants , that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the sexually hostile work environment at Fox News .
The assistant recounted that Guilfoyle had been dismissive about her complaints about being sexually harassed , had discouraged her from speaking to Fox ’ s human-resources department , and had pointed to her own career , claiming that she had had sexual encounters with powerful figures at Fox herself .
One of the former Fox News colleagues who had socialized with Guilfoyle told me that her sexually inappropriate behavior was akin to that of many powerful male Fox employees before 2016 , when @ @ @ @ @ @ @ brought against Ailes by Gretchen Carlson , a former on-air host .
Carlson ’ s suit exposed a deep-seated sexually predatory culture at the network .
Nearly two dozen women at Fox eventually alleged that they had been sexually harassed or intimidated .
The scandal triggered Ailes ’ s downfall , and also that of the star host Bill O ’ Reilly .
“ Kim was kind of like one of the guys , the way they used to operate , ” the former colleague told me .
Another former co-worker of Guilfoyle @ @ @ @ @ @ @ always about sex and guys with her .
She didn ’ t hide it—she ’ d almost flaunt it .
She probably wasn ’ t aware of others ’ feelings .
It was a different time.
” Before Guilfoyle became an outspoken defender of Trump , she was an outspoken defender of Ailes .
When Carlson sued him , Guilfoyle attempted to debunk her credibility .
In an interview with Adweek , Guilfoyle claimed that she had spoken with more than thirty women at Fox , and said , “ Nobody that I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was their experience.
” Two months before Fox settled with Carlson , for twenty million dollars , Guilfoyle gave an interview to Breitbart in which she vouched for Ailes ’ s “ character , integrity , and credibility , ” saying , “ I ’ ve known the man very well the last 15 years .
He ’ s someone who I admire greatly.
” She called Ailes “ a champion of women ” who has “ always been 100 percent professional.
” Guilfoyle reportedly led a public-relations campaign , coördinated with Ailes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at Fox that their careers would suffer if they didn ’ t back him .
According to a complaint filed by the former Fox News contributor Julie Roginsky , with whom the network settled yet another sexual-harassment claim against Ailes , Guilfoyle “ sought to recruit Fox News employees and contributors to retaliate against Carlson by publicly disparaging her.
” This “ retaliatory onslaught , ” Roginsky ’ s complaint said , was characterized as “ supporting ‘ Team Roger.
’ ” According to Brian Stelter ’ s “ Hoax , ” Guilfoyle @ @ @ @ @ @ @ support Ailes , warning , “ I ’ m taking notes.
” Stelter suggests that Guilfoyle was motivated by the belief that Ailes , who seemed all-powerful , would reward her by making her the host of her own show .
One of the former Fox colleagues who spoke with me said that Guilfoyle tried to intimidate other women at the network : “ It was ‘ Pick your team now—and if you don ’ t back Roger you will be out of here fast .
There will be retribution.
’ ” Once @ @ @ @ @ @ @ position at Fox grew less secure .
Even her allies agree that Ailes ’ s public disgrace left her in a bad spot .
But Guilfoyle ’ s defenders claim that she left the network entirely of her own volition .
At the time , a widely circulated story line suggested that she had left the network in order to avoid conflicts of interest posed by her deepening romance with Donald Trump , Jr .
In fact , soon after Guilfoyle left Fox , in July , 2018 , she joined Trump ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ America First Action , a pro-Trump super PAC .
Last December , reportedly at the President ’ s request , Guilfoyle was asked to become the head of fund-raising for Trump Victory , his main campaign organization .
She began touring the country as a Trump surrogate , appearing , as she did last month in Pennsylvania , in a bright-pink dress that matched a banner bearing the slogan “ Women for Trump.
” She also began hosting pro-Trump “ news ” updates on a channel available only to users of the Trump @ @ @ @ @ @ @ taking the fund-raising position , Guilfoyle has attracted some criticism .
In March , an opulent fifty-first-birthday party was held for Guilfoyle at Trump ’ s private Mar-a-Lago Club , in Palm Beach , and , according to the Times , the festivities were paid for , in part , by campaign donors .
The use of private jets by Guilfoyle and her staff has also drawn negative press .
But Guilfoyle , who has a son from her second marriage , to the furniture heir and designer Eric Villency , has flaunted @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Trump world , often posting photos on social media of herself and the President ’ s son in glamorous settings , including the White House .
According to the Washington Post , the couple last year bought a $ 4.4-million beach house together in the Hamptons .
Despite Guilfoyle ’ s record at Fox , she was given one of the Republican National Convention ’ s most prominent speaking spots—just before 10 P.M. on the first night .
As an exercise in attention-getting , her speech didn ’ t disappoint .
Describing herself @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was born in Puerto Rico , whose residents have long been U.S. citizens—Guilfoyle warned that Democrats “ want to destroy this country and everything that we have fought for and hold dear.
” She concluded by shouting , “ Ladies and gentlemen , leaders and fighters for liberty and the American Dream : the best is yet to come !
” Her delivery was so jarringly loud that Chuck Ross , a reporter at the conservative Daily Caller , tweeted , “ I heard Guilfoyle ’ s speech and my TV ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pleased the audience that mattered most : Trump reportedly told her that it was one of the “ greatest ” speeches he ’ d ever seen , because it was delivered with “ so much energy .
”

As President Donald Trump heads into the 2020 elections, he faces a daunting gender gap: according to a recent Washington Post/ABC News poll, he trails Joe Biden by thirty percentage points among female voters. As part of his campaign, Trump has been doing all he can to showcase female stars in the Republican Party, from nominating Amy Coney Barrett for the Supreme Court to naming Kimberly Guilfoyle, the former Fox News host and legal analyst, his campaign’s finance chair. Guilfoyle, however, may not be an ideal emissary. In November, 2018, a young woman who had been one of Guilfoyle’s assistants at Fox News sent company executives a confidential, forty-two-page draft complaint that accused Guilfoyle of repeated sexual harassment, and demanded monetary relief. The document, which resulted in a multimillion-dollar out-of-court settlement, raises serious questions about Guilfoyle’s fitness as a character witness for Trump, let alone as a top campaign official.
In the 2020 campaign, Trump has spotlighted no woman more brightly than Guilfoyle. She was given an opening-night speaking slot at the Republican National Convention. And this fall Guilfoyle, who is Donald Trump, Jr.,’s girlfriend, has been crisscrossing the country as a Trump surrogate, on what is billed as the “Four More Tour.” At a recent “Women for Trump” rally in Pennsylvania, Guilfoyle claimed that the President was creating “eighteen hundred new female-owned businesses in the United States a day,” and praised Trump for promoting school choice, which, she said, was supported by “single mothers like myself.”
Guilfoyle has maintained that her decision to move from television news to a political campaign was entirely voluntary. In fact, Fox News forced her out in July, 2018—several years before her contract’s expiration date. At the time, she was a co-host of the political chat show “The Five.” Media reports suggested that she had been accused of workplace impropriety, including displaying lewd pictures of male genitalia to colleagues, but few additional details of misbehavior emerged. Guilfoyle publicly denied any wrongdoing, and last year a lawyer representing her told The New Yorker that “any suggestion” she had “engaged in misconduct at Fox is patently false.” But, as I reported at the time, shortly after Guilfoyle left her job, Fox secretly paid an undisclosed sum to the assistant, who no longer works at the company. Recently, two well-informed sources told me that Fox, in order to avoid going to trial, had agreed to pay the woman upward of four million dollars.
Until now, the specific accusations against Guilfoyle have remained largely hidden. The draft complaint, which was never filed in court, is covered by a nondisclosure agreement. The former assistant has not been publicly identified, and, out of respect for the rights of alleged victims of sexual harassment, The New Yorker is honoring her confidentiality. Reached for comment, she said, “I wish you well. But I have nothing to say.”
The woman was hired in 2015, just out of college, to work as an assistant for Guilfoyle and another former Fox host, Eric Bolling. According to a dozen well-informed sources familiar with her complaints, the assistant alleged that Guilfoyle, her direct supervisor, subjected her frequently to degrading, abusive, and sexually inappropriate behavior; among other things, she said that she was frequently required to work at Guilfoyle’s New York apartment while the Fox host displayed herself naked, and was shown photographs of the genitalia of men with whom Guilfoyle had had sexual relations. The draft complaint also alleged that Guilfoyle spoke incessantly and luridly about her sex life, and on one occasion demanded a massage of her bare thighs; other times, she said, Guilfoyle told her to submit to a Fox employee’s demands for sexual favors, encouraged her to sleep with wealthy and powerful men, asked her to critique her naked body, demanded that she share a room with her on business trips, required her to sleep over at her apartment, and exposed herself to her, making her feel deeply uncomfortable.
As serious as the draft complaint’s sexual-harassment allegations were, equally disturbing was what the assistant described as a coverup attempt by Guilfoyle, whose conduct was about to come under investigation by a team of outside lawyers. In July, 2016, the network had hired the New York-based law firm Paul, Weiss to investigate sexual misconduct at the company, which, under the leadership of Roger Ailes, had a long history of flagrant harassment and gender discrimination. According to those familiar with the assistant’s draft complaint, during a phone call on August 6, 2017, she alleged that Guilfoyle tried to buy her silence, offering to arrange a payment to her if she agreed to lie to the Paul, Weiss lawyers about her experiences. The alleged offering of hush money brings to mind Trump’s payments to the porn star Stormy Daniels, in order to cover up his sexual impropriety.
By 2017, the Paul, Weiss lawyers had begun investigating accusations of workplace sexual misconduct involving Eric Bolling, with whom Guilfoyle shared the assistant. Guilfoyle and Bolling were close, and it was all but inevitable that if the assistant accused Bolling of sexual harassment—as in fact she did—Guilfoyle’s conduct would come under scrutiny next. (Bolling, whose employment Fox ended in September, 2017, declined to comment; he has denied any wrongdoing, and is now a host at Sinclair Broadcast Group.) According to the assistant, as the investigation into Bolling gained momentum, Guilfoyle told her that she needed to know what the assistant would say if she were asked about sexual harassment, and warned her that she could cause great damage if she said the wrong thing. Guilfoyle, she said, told her that, in exchange for demonstrating what Guilfoyle called loyalty, she would work out a payment to take care of her—possibly, she said, with funds from Bolling. The assistant alleged that Guilfoyle mentioned sums as large as a million dollars, and also other inducements, including a private-plane ride to Rome, a percentage of Guilfoyle’s future speaking fees, and an on-air reporting opportunity. People close to Guilfoyle called the assistant’s allegation untrue, and said they were shocked that she would fabricate such a false claim. But a well-informed source independently confirmed to me that Guilfoyle had discussed the topic of raising hush money.
When the assistant declined the offer of money, Guilfoyle warned—in a manner that the assistant regarded as threatening—that, if she spoke candidly to the lawyers, some aspects of the assistant’s private life that Guilfoyle knew about might be exposed. In fact, as I reported on this story, associates of Guilfoyle’s contacted me, offering personal details about the assistant, evidently in hopes of damaging her credibility and leading me not to publish this report.
Guilfoyle declined to be interviewed for this story but issued a statement: “In my 30-year career working for the SF District Attorney’s Office, the LA District Attorney’s Office, in media and in politics, I have never engaged in any workplace misconduct of any kind. During my career, I have served as a mentor to countless women, with many of whom I remain exceptionally close to this day.” John Singer, her lawyer, said that he would not comment.
According to the former assistant’s account, she declined what she regarded as Guilfoyle’s attempts to buy her off, and refused to conceal evidence or lie. Instead, she told the legal team at Paul, Weiss that both Guilfoyle and Bolling had sexually harassed her. Multiple people in whom the assistant confided at the time say she expressed concern that Guilfoyle might retaliate against her; Guilfoyle had boasted of her high-level connections inside Fox’s legal office, and of her ability to ruin enemies’ reputations. The assistant’s concerns had mounted to the point that she sought legal help. Meanwhile, her allegations sparked months of investigation into Guilfoyle’s behavior by Fox’s human-resources department, and eventually resulted in Guilfoyle’s negotiated departure from the company.
Tim Murtaugh, a spokesman for the Trump campaign, declined to comment on the appropriateness of Guilfoyle overseeing the Trump campaign’s finances, given the allegations about hush money and harassment levied against her by her former assistant. Murtaugh referred inquiries to Guilfoyle’s lawyer.
The news that Guilfoyle did not leave Fox on good terms was first broken by HuffPost, in 2018. Yashar Ali reported that Fox had quietly forced Guilfoyle out after a months-long probe by its human-resources department had revealed disturbing allegations by co-workers, including by her assistant, who had been given a paid leave as the company investigated. Ali wrote that Guilfoyle had denied any misconduct and had fought to stay at the network. Her allies had even mounted an unsuccessful last-ditch attempt to save her job by appealing to Rupert Murdoch, the executive chairman of 21st Century Fox, then the news network’s parent company. But Murdoch, who had looked past decades of sexual harassment at Fox News, had been persuaded by his sons, Lachlan and James—then both senior executives in the company—that such misconduct could no longer be tolerated. Paul, Weiss was called in to clean house. A source familiar with the situation told me that the assistant’s confidential statements were foundational to Fox’s decision to part ways with Guilfoyle.
Michele Hirshman, the partner at Paul, Weiss who oversaw the investigation at Fox, didn’t respond to my requests for comment. The Washington attorney Gerson Zweifach, who served as 21st Century Fox’s general counsel and legal adviser on the sexual-harassment probe, also declined to comment, saying, “I can’t be of assistance here, for all the reasons you might expect.” A spokesperson at Fox declined to comment on Guilfoyle’s departure from the company. When asked about reports suggesting that Guilfoyle had received full payment for the remaining time on the contract, the spokesperson said that they were “not accurate.”
In the 2020 campaign, Trump has spotlighted no woman more brightly than Guilfoyle, who has been crisscrossing the country as his surrogate, on what is billed as the “Four More Tour.” Photograph by Matt Rourke / AP / Shutterstock
Several associates of Guilfoyle’s insist that the allegations against her lack credibility. Alexandra Preate, a public-relations executive who is a longtime friend of Guilfoyle’s, told me, “These manifestly false accusations are an affront to the honorable life that Kimberly, a single mom and trailblazing woman, has led.” Greta Van Susteren, a former colleague of Guilfoyle’s at Fox, said of her, “I’ve known her for twenty-some years, and I’ve never heard of a single complaint against her. This is completely inconsistent with what I’ve seen.” Sergio Gor, the chief of staff for the Trump Victory finance committee, who has known her for more than a decade, said, “She always puts others ahead of herself and is unfailingly generous and ethical.” Another defender of Guilfoyle’s, who declined to go on the record, noted that the assistant had sent numerous gushing notes to Guilfoyle thanking her for her mentorship, and referred to Guilfoyle as almost like family. The assistant had also tweeted praise of her bosses.
The New Yorker, however, was able to independently confirm several of the assistant’s accusations. The allegation that she was required to work at Guilfoyle’s apartment while Guilfoyle was barely clothed or naked was substantiated by several of the assistant’s confidants, including an eyewitness, who recalls being surprised by the sight. “It was provocative in a way that made you want to get away from this person,” the eyewitness told me.
One current and one former Fox employee confirmed the assistant’s allegation that Guilfoyle had often shared lewd images, noting that she had shown photographs of male genitalia to them, too—some of romantic partners, others of fans. Another former employee described Guilfoyle showing pornographic videos in the office. Guilfoyle’s graphic sexual talk so upset hair-and-makeup artists at Fox that they lodged an internal complaint, triggering an investigation by the company.
A former Fox colleague who had been friendly with Guilfoyle said, “It was worse than gross—it put other women at Fox in such a terrible position.” She explained that, as someone at a junior level, she felt afraid to criticize Guilfoyle, who was a powerful star with high-ranking friends at the network. At the same time, the former colleague didn’t want to be complicit in behavior that she regarded as crude, unprofessional, and legally troubling. “It created an environment that was detrimental to young women,” the former colleague said.
The current Fox employee, who has socialized with Guilfoyle, defended Guilfoyle’s right to take whatever pictures she wanted, and to share them outside of work with her friends, but argued, “You can’t expose an assistant to that.” A confidant of the former assistant—who also knows Guilfoyle well—agreed, saying of her, “They really put her through a wringer. It was a justifiable complaint. She’s a very nice kid. She’s not a nefarious person. It was a hostile workplace.” Another former Fox colleague who observed the dynamic between Guilfoyle and the assistant said, “It was an insane, abusive relationship,” adding, “Rather than being a mentor, she was an afflictor.” And yet another close observer who still works at Fox told me that the assistant was “one of the nicest, hard-working people—she was young and full of ambition, but by the time she left she was just broken.”
When the #MeToo movement erupted, Fox News turned to Guilfoyle as an on-air expert on legal issues, including sexual harassment. Before joining Fox News, in 2006, Guilfoyle had been a prosecutor in San Francisco, where she had been married to Gavin Newsom, a Democrat who was the city’s mayor and is now California’s governor. In on-air discussions of workplace harassment, Guilfoyle portrayed herself as an advocate for women’s rights, speaking forcefully about the cases of the movie mogul Harvey Weinstein and moderating a roundtable about the television host Charlie Rose. (In that discussion, Guilfoyle’s Fox colleague Greg Gutfeld said, “The whole thing with Charlie Rose is so strange that he would, like, force co-workers or young people to view him naked—like, he would walk around his apartment naked.” Rose apologized for his “inappropriate behavior,” though he denied some of the allegations made against him.) In 2017, after the Times and The New Yorker broke the Weinstein story, Guilfoyle declared that “the victims” were “the most important aspect,” and referred to her experience of working as a lawyer with victims of “sex-abuse crimes.” She expressed sympathy for victims who were afraid to come forward because “they don’t feel that they have economic power” and they want “to get a chance” in their chosen industry.
Yet the assistant has alleged, both in her draft complaint and to confidants, that Guilfoyle contributed to, and even defended, the sexually hostile work environment at Fox News. The assistant recounted that Guilfoyle had been dismissive about her complaints about being sexually harassed, had discouraged her from speaking to Fox’s human-resources department, and had pointed to her own career, claiming that she had had sexual encounters with powerful figures at Fox herself. One of the former Fox News colleagues who had socialized with Guilfoyle told me that her sexually inappropriate behavior was akin to that of many powerful male Fox employees before 2016, when the network was rocked by a lawsuit brought against Ailes by Gretchen Carlson, a former on-air host. Carlson’s suit exposed a deep-seated sexually predatory culture at the network. Nearly two dozen women at Fox eventually alleged that they had been sexually harassed or intimidated. The scandal triggered Ailes’s downfall, and also that of the star host Bill O’Reilly. “Kim was kind of like one of the guys, the way they used to operate,” the former colleague told me. Another former co-worker of Guilfoyle’s recalled, “It was always about sex and guys with her. She didn’t hide it—she’d almost flaunt it. She probably wasn’t aware of others’ feelings. It was a different time.”
Before Guilfoyle became an outspoken defender of Trump, she was an outspoken defender of Ailes. When Carlson sued him, Guilfoyle attempted to debunk her credibility. In an interview with Adweek, Guilfoyle claimed that she had spoken with more than thirty women at Fox, and said, “Nobody that I’ve spoken to said that this was their experience.” Two months before Fox settled with Carlson, for twenty million dollars, Guilfoyle gave an interview to Breitbart in which she vouched for Ailes’s “character, integrity, and credibility,” saying, “I’ve known the man very well the last 15 years. He’s someone who I admire greatly.” She called Ailes “a champion of women” who has “always been 100 percent professional.”
Guilfoyle reportedly led a public-relations campaign, coördinated with Ailes, in which she implied to women at Fox that their careers would suffer if they didn’t back him. According to a complaint filed by the former Fox News contributor Julie Roginsky, with whom the network settled yet another sexual-harassment claim against Ailes, Guilfoyle “sought to recruit Fox News employees and contributors to retaliate against Carlson by publicly disparaging her.” This “retaliatory onslaught,” Roginsky’s complaint said, was characterized as “supporting ‘Team Roger.’ ”
According to Brian Stelter’s “Hoax,” Guilfoyle told female colleagues that they had better support Ailes, warning, “I’m taking notes.” Stelter suggests that Guilfoyle was motivated by the belief that Ailes, who seemed all-powerful, would reward her by making her the host of her own show. One of the former Fox colleagues who spoke with me said that Guilfoyle tried to intimidate other women at the network: “It was ‘Pick your team now—and if you don’t back Roger you will be out of here fast. There will be retribution.’ ”
Once Ailes was gone, Guilfoyle’s position at Fox grew less secure. Even her allies agree that Ailes’s public disgrace left her in a bad spot. But Guilfoyle’s defenders claim that she left the network entirely of her own volition. At the time, a widely circulated story line suggested that she had left the network in order to avoid conflicts of interest posed by her deepening romance with Donald Trump, Jr. In fact, soon after Guilfoyle left Fox, in July, 2018, she joined Trump’s reëlection campaign, as vice-chair of America First Action, a pro-Trump super PAC.
Last December, reportedly at the President’s request, Guilfoyle was asked to become the head of fund-raising for Trump Victory, his main campaign organization. She began touring the country as a Trump surrogate, appearing, as she did last month in Pennsylvania, in a bright-pink dress that matched a banner bearing the slogan “Women for Trump.” She also began hosting pro-Trump “news” updates on a channel available only to users of the Trump campaign’s social-media app.


newyorker--2020-10-01--The Election Wars of 2020

The Election Wars of 2020

On Tuesday , Donald Trump and Joe Biden met for their first Presidential debate .
For ninety minutes , Trump @ @ @ @ @ both his opponent and the debate moderator , Chris Wallace .
He also challenged the @ @ @ @ @ and warned , “ this is not going to end well.
” Evan Osnos joins @ @ @ @ @ how political discourse has changed in recent decades , and whether Joe Biden 's vision @ @ @ @ @ normalcy ” is possible .

Download a transcript.|||
Photograph by Scott Olson / Getty
On Tuesday, Donald Trump and Joe Biden met for their first Presidential debate. For ninety minutes, Trump repeatedly shouted over and attacked both his opponent and the debate moderator, Chris Wallace. He also challenged the legitimacy of the election, and warned, “this is not going to end well.” Evan Osnos joins Dorothy Wickenden to talk about how political discourse has changed in recent decades, and whether Joe Biden's vision of a return to “normalcy” is possible.


newyorker--2020-10-01--Rule Change for Second Debate Forbids Trump from Attending

WASHINGTON ( The Borowitz Report ) —In a rule change announced on Thursday , the Commission on Presidential Debates said @ @ @ @ @ not be permitted to attend the second debate .
“ We took a look at @ @ @ @ @ that we needed to tweak the format a bit , ” Harland Dorrinson , a @ @ @ @ @ said .
“ We think this rule change fixes everything.
” Anticipating criticism that a @ @ @ @ @ two participants , the spokesperson said , “ There will be , if you count @ @ @ @ @ the rule change , the commission will post a photo of Trump at security , @ @ @ @ @ hoped that such a measure would not be necessary .
“ If President Trump is @ @ @ @ @ him to stand back , but don ’ t stand by , ” he said @

WASHINGTON (The Borowitz Report)—In a rule change announced on Thursday, the Commission on Presidential Debates said that Donald J. Trump will not be permitted to attend the second debate.
“We took a look at the first debate and decided that we needed to tweak the format a bit,” Harland Dorrinson, a spokesperson for the commission, said. “We think this rule change fixes everything.”
Anticipating criticism that a debate must have at least two participants, the spokesperson said, “There will be, if you count the moderator.”
To enforce the rule change, the commission will post a photo of Trump at security, but Dorrinson said that he hoped that such a measure would not be necessary.
“If President Trump is listening, we are asking him to stand back, but don’t stand by,” he said.


newyorker--2020-10-01--How I Met the Reclusive Georgia O’Keeffe

It was in the early nineteen-seventies , when I was in my early twenties .
I was working at Sotheby ’ s , in New York , in the American paintings department .
One of the things I did there was catalogue the works that we sold .
I held each picture in my hands , felt its shape and weight .
I measured and described it , recording the medium , condition , signature .
The date .
The provenance and exhibition history .
I came to know the works very well .
During this time I had begun @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was particularly interested in the modernists , those early-twentieth-century artists who were part of the rising tide of abstraction .
I wrote about different members of this group—Marsden Hartley , Arthur Dove .
I wanted to write about O ’ Keeffe , but this was difficult .
She held the copyright to many of her paintings , so it was necessary to ask permission from her in order to reproduce them .
This was one reason that relatively little scholarship had appeared on her : How could you write a book about art @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the confusion that permeated critical response to her work until well into the sixties .
All those flowers !
Was she a great artist or a cheap sentimentalist ?
The work was so easy to like—could it be important ?
She was scorned by the guys , and , if you wanted to be taken seriously as a scholar , it seemed risky to write about her .
Another reason for the paucity of writing about O ’ Keeffe was her own inaccessibility .
She lived in a small village in rural New @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and withholding were part of her persona .
She was not interested in publicity , and it is said that she once refused a request for a one-person show at the Louvre .
Here was a paradox : the work , so intimate and engaging , even accessible , and the artist , so remote and self-controlled , clothed in severe black and white .
The mystery gave O ’ Keeffe a kind of charged glamour .
A sighting was a significant event .
That season , Sotheby ’ s had received an @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
It had been done in the early nineteen-thirties : two dark gray buildings in a wintry landscape .
I catalogued it , and asked Doris Bry—O ’ Keeffe ’ s private agent , who had once been the assistant to Alfred Stieglitz , O ’ Keeffe ’ s former husband—for information on it .
Later she called me .
“ Mrs .
Alger , ” she said ( for that was my name then ) , “ this is Doris Bry.
” Of course I knew who it was .
She had @ @ @ @ @ @ @ distinctive , with a Waspy drawl .
“ I ’ m calling about the painting of Canadian barns.
” “ Yes , Miss Bry.
” I used my formal , fluty , professional tone .
“ How may I help you ?
” “ I ’ d like to have the painting brought over to my apartment.
” Doris Bry lived in an apartment in the Pulitzer mansion .
This was a grand Beaux-Arts building , only a few blocks away from our offices on Madison Avenue .
But it didn ’ t @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I ’ m so sorry , Miss Bry , ” I said , “ but our insurance policies don ’ t permit the works to leave the premises until they have legally changed hands .
If you ’ d like to bring someone in to see the painting , I ’ ll be happy to have it brought out to the viewing room and put up on the easel .
But I can ’ t allow the painting to leave our property.
” “ Mrs .
Alger , ” Miss Bry said , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ would like to see the painting.
” “ I ’ ll be there in ten minutes , ” I said , in my normal voice .
I called storage to have the painting brought out .
I had it under my arm and was walking down the hall on my way to the front door when I ran into my boss .
“ What are you carrying ?
” he asked .
“ Canadian barns , ” I said , putting a hand over the frame protectively .
“ Where are you going @ @ @ @ @ @ @ can ’ t leave the premises.
” “ The artist wants to see it , ” I said .
My boss put out his hand .
“ I ’ ll take it.
” With the painting under my arm , I walked down Madison Avenue to the Pulitzer mansion .
Doris Bry ushered me into her apartment .
She was a tall , stately woman , rather ponderous .
She had dark eyes , pale , lightless skin , and a mass of short gray curls .
She brought me into the living @ @ @ @ @ @ @ people—two lawyers in dark suits and an older woman .
Bry introduced me .
“ This is Mrs. Alger , from Sotheby ’ s. ” The woman nodded pleasantly but said nothing .
She was much smaller than I , which surprised me .
She had a lined face , dark , hooded eyes , and long silvery hair coiled into a low bun .
She wore a gray cotton housedress with a white collar and a narrow self-belt .
On her feet , she wore flat black Chinese slippers , with straps @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I carried the painting across the room and set it on the easel .
The small woman came with me , but Bry and the lawyers stood at the back of the room , talking .
Georgia O ’ Keeffe and I stood in front of the painting .
She looked quietly at the canvas , as though it were part of her , as if she were alone with it .
I stood silently beside her .
But that wasn ’ t enough .
When people meet someone famous , often they @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , to impose their own identities upon that of the famous person .
They say , “ I grew up in your town , ” or , “ I have that same scarf , ” or , “ I met you once in a train station.
” It ’ s a hopeless venture .
“ I hope you like the frame , ” I said .
I had ordered it myself .
It was a simple silver half clamshell , the kind that Arthur Dove had used .
I knew O ’ Keeffe @ @ @ @ @ @ @ work .
I knew she ’ d like the frame .
She ’ d be grateful .
This was my moment .
She answered without turning .
“ I like them best without frames.
” I said nothing more .
She stood looking at the painting , calm and utterly self-possessed .
I think she was wearing a black sweater , a thin little cardigan , not buttoned up .
She ’ d have been in her early eighties then .
One evening , my husband , Tony , came home from the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
He was in his business suit , still carrying his briefcase .
“ I have something to tell you , ” he said .
On the train coming out , he ’ d sat next to a friend of ours , Edward Burlingame , who was the editor-in-chief and publisher at Harper & Row .
Edward had said , “ Georgia O ’ Keeffe has just died , and there isn ’ t a big biography of her .
Who do you think we should ask to write it ?
” Tony @ @ @ @ @ @ @ knew I wrote fiction , but he needed someone who knew about American art .
Tony told him that I did .
Edward said he ’ d keep it in mind .
When Tony finished the story , I shook my head .
“ Thanks for suggesting me , but he ’ s being polite .
This is Harper & Row , and it ’ s a big deal .
They ’ ll want a museum curator , or anyway someone with a graduate degree .
Not someone who ’ s just published @ @ @ @ @ @ @ So he won ’ t ask me .
And , if he did , I ’ d say no .
I was writing about art because my fiction wasn ’ t being published , but now it is .
I have a novel coming out , and I ’ m done with art .
So , thank you for suggesting me , but , first , he won ’ t ask me , and , second , if he did I ’ d say no.
” Tony said , “ Well , I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on Friday .
On Monday , Edward called and asked if I ’ d be interested in writing the biography of Georgia O ’ Keeffe , and I said yes .
And so I began the project .
I did much of the archival research at the Beinecke Library , at Yale , which holds the vast O ’ Keeffe-Stieglitz archive .
There , I worked in tranquil silence within the alabaster walls , leafing through papers and photographs ; reading long , chatty , private , serious , funny , heartfelt , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ network of kinship , friendships , and professional relationships .
I enjoyed those times enormously .
The other kind of research—interviews—was far more stressful , as it meant meeting with strangers .
There were lawsuits under way , regarding O ’ Keeffe ’ s will and her inheritance , and feelings in the O ’ Keeffe community ran high .
Some people took sides , and when they learned that I had spoken to someone on the opposing side , they refused to speak to me .
Other friends and colleagues were loyal @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tradition of silence toward strangers and refused to speak to me .
But her family , after they had met me and read other things I ’ d written , agreed to talk .
I met various members , and then I was given the great honor of three days of interviews with O ’ Keeffe ’ s one remaining sister , Catherine O ’ Keeffe Klenert .
Klenert was then in her nineties , frail and white-haired , but utterly cogent .

She answered without turning. “I like them best without frames.”
I said nothing more. She stood looking at the painting, calm and utterly self-possessed. I think she was wearing a black sweater, a thin little cardigan, not buttoned up.
She’d have been in her early eighties then.
Nearly twenty years later, in the spring of 1986, I was living in northern Westchester County. We had moved there ten years earlier, my family and I. We were out in the country, in an old farmhouse with a big barn and some fields. Living with us were four or five horses, two or three dogs, and some large cats. My daughter was fourteen. I had left the art world.
One evening, my husband, Tony, came home from the city and found me in the kitchen. He was in his business suit, still carrying his briefcase.
“I have something to tell you,” he said. On the train coming out, he’d sat next to a friend of ours, Edward Burlingame, who was the editor-in-chief and publisher at Harper & Row. Edward had said, “Georgia O’Keeffe has just died, and there isn’t a big biography of her. Who do you think we should ask to write it?”
Tony mentioned me. Edward said that he knew I wrote fiction, but he needed someone who knew about American art. Tony told him that I did. Edward said he’d keep it in mind.
When Tony finished the story, I shook my head. “Thanks for suggesting me, but he’s being polite. This is Harper & Row, and it’s a big deal. They’ll want a museum curator, or anyway someone with a graduate degree. Not someone who’s just published a few articles and catalogue essays. So he won’t ask me. And, if he did, I’d say no. I was writing about art because my fiction wasn’t being published, but now it is. I have a novel coming out, and I’m done with art. So, thank you for suggesting me, but, first, he won’t ask me, and, second, if he did I’d say no.”
Tony said, “Well, I wanted to tell you.”
“Thank you,” I said again.
That was on Friday. On Monday, Edward called and asked if I’d be interested in writing the biography of Georgia O’Keeffe, and I said yes.
That was the beginning. After many conversations, and a written proposal, Harper & Row offered me a contract. Several other writers had begun writing books about O’Keeffe, and timing was key. “Your book must be the first one to come out,” Edward told me, “or within six months of the first, or it won’t be reviewed.”
And so I began the project. I did much of the archival research at the Beinecke Library, at Yale, which holds the vast O’Keeffe-Stieglitz archive. There, I worked in tranquil silence within the alabaster walls, leafing through papers and photographs; reading long, chatty, private, serious, funny, heartfelt, and thoughtful letters; learning a complicated network of kinship, friendships, and professional relationships. I enjoyed those times enormously. The other kind of research—interviews—was far more stressful, as it meant meeting with strangers. There were lawsuits under way, regarding O’Keeffe’s will and her inheritance, and feelings in the O’Keeffe community ran high. Some people took sides, and when they learned that I had spoken to someone on the opposing side, they refused to speak to me. Other friends and colleagues were loyal to O’Keeffe’s long tradition of silence toward strangers and refused to speak to me.
But her family, after they had met me and read other things I’d written, agreed to talk. I met various members, and then I was given the great honor of three days of interviews with O’Keeffe’s one remaining sister, Catherine O’Keeffe Klenert. Klenert was then in her nineties, frail and white-haired, but utterly cogent.
One afternoon, when I was asking her about the family’s early days, she looked up at me, baffled. “I don’t know why you’re asking me. Anyone could tell you about this. Everyone knows it.”
I smiled at her. “No one else could tell me. You’re the only one left.” She was the only one who could tell me about getting up in the dark during the winter in nineteenth-century Wisconsin, what it was like walking to school, celebrating a birthday, going to church. What the evenings were like in that household. Klenert was an invaluable source, and a deeply sympathetic presence.
Of course, I was sorry not to be able to interview my subject, Georgia O’Keeffe. But after I came to know some of her relatives, after I’d listened to their stories and heard their thoughts, I understood that I was absorbing the culture that had produced her. Courage, determination, and self-reliance were all part of the family culture. O’Keeffe drew on these resources, which enabled her to lead the life she wanted. And place was important to the book. I went to Sun Prairie, Wisconsin, to see the long swell of the dark-earth fields. I went to Amarillo and Canyon, Santa Fe and Abiquiu, to see what it felt like to stand beneath the wheeling sky, to watch the sun rising on the roseate cliffs.
Edward had told me that the book had to be first, and I was determined that it would be. I had already completed some of the scholarly research when I wrote about other members of the Stieglitz circle, but there was a lot more to learn, and then there was the writing. Toward the end, I thought of nothing else. One day, I was driving through our little village when I approached an old, black car. The driver was an older man with a bristly white mustache and round rimless glasses. I knew that I knew him, but I couldn’t place him until we had passed each other. Then I realized that my mind had turned him into Alfred Stieglitz, who had died before I was born. The book had taken me over.
My daughter was in boarding school by then, and we had sold the horses. I took over the guest room and laid my folders out on the bed. I put a tall file cabinet in the upstairs hall. I wrote the book on a desktop computer on a card table, set against the closet door. We couldn’t get into that closet for three years.
My book came out in the fall of 1989. It was the first biography to appear after her death.
O’Keeffe’s work has always evoked a mixture of praise and exasperation—praise from people who understand what her work does, exasperation from people who think it should do something else. She has been accused of being too accessible (though so is Monet), too obvious about gender (though so is Picasso), too arcane (though so is Braque), and too obvious (though so is Hieronymus Bosch.)
After O’Keeffe settled Stieglitz’s estate, in 1949, she left New York and moved full time to New Mexico. Without a cohort and without a gallery, her reputation declined, even as she continued to work. In the late fifties, she appeared in a Newsweek column called “Where Are They Now?” O’Keeffe was featured as a formerly famous artist, now forgotten, living among the mesas of the Southwest.
But, just as her decline preceded her death, so did her resurgence. In 1970, the scholar Lloyd Goodrich mounted a large and authoritative retrospective exhibition at the Whitney Museum of American Art, in New York. The show introduced O’Keeffe to a new generation, and the result was a reflorescence of interest in her work. O’Keeffe’s most accessible images—the magnified flowers, the dreaming antlers and skulls, as well as the vast, mysterious cloudscapes—became hugely popular among the public. Her subjects, of course, were not only ecological, and forty years after the Goodrich retrospective, in 2009, Barbara Haskell, a curator at the Whitney Museum, produced another groundbreaking show, “Georgia O’Keeffe: Abstraction.” Instead of the familiar images of flowers, bones, and mountains, Haskell presented over a hundred abstract images. The show began with the radical charcoal drawings of 1915 that declared O’Keeffe’s commitment to purely nonobjective art, and it posed an effective challenge to charges of sentimentality. As Haskell pointed out, abstraction was always a source for O’Keeffe; she saw it in the natural world, in patterns of light and shade, of shape and design. Her compositions came from both interior ideas and the distillation of what she saw before her.
The scholarship on O’Keeffe continues to expand, focussing on every aspect of her work and life. Recently, an exhibition presented the work of her sister Ida; another presented O’Keeffe’s personal style. The art historian and O’Keeffe scholar Wanda Corn writes, “Today we have an expanded understanding of O’Keeffe’s creativity outside of the studio. She was a brilliant designer of her homes and gardens . . . and an early proponent of farm-to-table cooking. She created a personal style of dress and distinctive ways of modeling for the camera.” The New Yorker writer Calvin Tomkins, one of the few journalists to have interviewed O’Keeffe, says, “I have a sense that, after a period of being more or less dismissed, she has regained her seat in the historical pantheon, and is revered for a lot of new reasons.”
Some of those reasons, one hopes, have to do with O’Keeffe’s determination, bravery, and commitment, as well as with her extraordinary body of work. It was an honor and a challenge to write the story of her life, to delve so deeply into the narrative of someone who has, through her art and her example, influenced my own life and the lives of so many others.
I still think of her lined face and coiled silver hair, her faint, amused smile, those flat black Chinese slippers.
This essay was drawn from “Georgia O’Keeffe: A Life,” which is being reissued, in an expanded edition, in October, by Brandeis University Press.


newyorker--2020-10-01--What Will Cold-and-Flu Season Mean for the Coronavirus Pandemic?

In September , the official death toll in the United States surpassed two hundred thousand .
Despite an over-all decline in infection and mortality rates since the spring , more than seven hundred people , on average , are dying every day from COVID-19 .
“ We have become used to this level of disease that is really pretty awful , ” Eric Toner , a senior scholar with the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security , recently told Politico .
Still , Donald Trump and other political leaders have continued to flout restrictions , at a time when the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ In August , half a million motorcyclists attended the annual Sturgis rally , in South Dakota , encouraged by the state ’ s Republican governor , Kristi Noem , leading to at least one death and a hundred thousand infections across the country , according to one study .
Despite the spike in coronavirus cases in Tulsa , Oklahoma , following Trump ’ s indoor campaign rally there , in June , he held another indoor campaign rally , in Nevada , on September 13th .
Hundreds of unmasked supporters crowded into a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s ban on gatherings of fifty or more .
More recently , at a campaign rally in Ohio , Trump said that the virus “ affects virtually nobody.
” After two months of decline , the number of new cases nationwide has been rising steadily , now averaging around forty thousand per day .
Anthony Fauci , the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases , recently estimated that , in order to maintain control of the pandemic this winter , the country should be averaging less than ten thousand @ @ @ @ @ @ @ like to see that number in the very low thousands , ” he told me .
“ Less than ten thousand .
To be stuck at forty thousand cases a day , as a nation , is a precarious position.
” Of course , we might have been better prepared .
Back in May , Rick Bright , the former head of the U.S. Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority , who had been demoted a month earlier for insisting that the drug hydroxychloroquine should be rigorously tested , warned that , without @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the country faced the “ darkest winter in modern history.
” We ’ re now staring down that barrel .
At the current rate of infection , daily deaths could climb back to two thousand per day by mid-November , according to the University of Washington ’ s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation .
The group ’ s model , which uses a wide-ranging set of very specific assumptions—about climate , for instance , and about mobility—to hypothesize future scenarios , estimates that we could see a total of four hundred thousand @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Modellers are quick to caution , however , that estimating specific counts that far into the future is not much different from predicting the exact weather on any given day in December .
Youyang Gu , a young data scientist who independently created one of the most accurate forecasting models available , acknowledged that a fall wave could increase daily deaths by mid-November .
But he has not released projections that extend more than six weeks into the future .
“ There is no point , ” he said .
“ It @ @ @ @ @ @ @ there is no certainty.
” Although a clear set of guidelines exists for controlling the pandemic in the months ahead , there are still many variables , including a degree of chance .
Because there are no borders within the U.S. , and people can go where they want , many places “ are going to feel like they ’ ve been so vigilant , and they are just going to get unlucky , ” Nick Reich , the head of a lab at the University of Massachusetts , Amherst , and the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ said .
Although many experts also said that there is room for hope—chiefly , that communities and workplaces will take sufficient precautions to prevent the sorts of overwhelming outbreaks that took place in the spring—none were optimistic .
They all emphasized the chaos caused by a lack of federal leadership .
“ No one I know expects it to be better , ” Bill Hanage , an associate professor of epidemiology at the Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health , told me .
“ The question is : How much worse @ @ @ @ @ @ @ most obvious factor .
Experts generally agree that , in temperate regions , colder weather will lead to more coronavirus cases , as it does with other respiratory viruses .
They just can not say exactly why .
“ There are ongoing debates for a lot of diseases , ” Justin Lessler , an epidemiologist at Johns Hopkins University , told me .
“ Is it changes in social interactions that drive seasonality ?
Or is it actual biological and physical mechanisms ?
” The coronavirus spreads easily across a poorly ventilated room @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for hours .
“ It ’ s all more intense inside , ” Emily Gurley , another epidemiologist at Hopkins , said .
Humidity plays a part , too .
Evidence from flu studies shows that smaller particles travel farther when humidity is lower .
Arid winter air dries out people ’ s airways , making them more vulnerable to infection .
People cough more in the winter months .
They are prone to Vitamin D deficiencies , too .
Tom Frieden , a former director of the Centers for Disease Control and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ meatpackers have been common not only in the United States but all over Europe .
“ Think of what a meatpacking factory is , ” he said .
“ It ’ s winter.
” The usual seasonal viruses , especially influenza , will also have negative impacts .
There is the possibility of a one-two punch , particularly among older people : becoming infected first with a cold or flu , which weakens the respiratory system , and then with SARS-CoV-2 .
Many hospitals already have trouble during bad flu years , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ twindemic , ” in which facilities are doubly stressed by post-flu pneumonia patients and COVID-19 patients .
That said , every measure to control the coronavirus could also , potentially , control the flu , the common cold , and other seasonal viruses .
More people might be inclined to get the flu vaccine now than in previous years .
This winter could therefore see a mild flu season , as was the case this past winter in the Southern Hemisphere .
School closures , travel restrictions , social distancing , and mask-wearing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ SARS-CoV-2 , which is more infectious , continued to spread .
Clusters are possible anywhere—factories , offices , crowded housing developments—but an unpublished study of location data , by Google and a group of Harvard-affiliated hospitals , found that the policy associated with the greatest increase in social distancing was bar and restaurant closures .
In June , a JPMorgan Chase analysis of credit-card spending found that in-restaurant purchases are the strongest predictor of increases in COVID-19 cases .
Currently , the fastest-rising case counts are in swaths of rural and suburban America—in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and Utah—which avoided outbreaks in the spring and summer .
Cases have also risen rapidly in college towns .
The New York Times found that more than forty-two thousand confirmed cases have been reported at American colleges since early September .
In Florida , Governor Ron DeSantis , a Republican , just opened bars and restaurants at full capacity .
Gu told me that he ’ s unsure whether universities would have a big impact on the fatality rate .
“ If students that test positive are on campus , and don @ @ @ @ @ @ @ said , “ you ’ re effectively quarantining them.
” The situation is different for younger students .
Although children under ten spread the virus less than teen-agers and adults , they still present a risk .
A new study from the C.D.C .
and researchers in Salt Lake City found that children who had contracted Covid-19 in child-care facilities transmitted the virus to at least twenty-six per cent of their outside contacts .
The C.D.C .
recommends that schools reopen only if the amount of virus spreading through a community is low—specifically @ @ @ @ @ @ @ than five per cent , or the average number of new cases is less than twenty per hundred thousand people .
But some school districts have disregarded these recommendations .
In Florida , where DeSantis aggressively pushed for schools to reopen for in-person instruction in August , nearly twelve thousand kids tested positive for the coronavirus during a four-week stretch , representing a twenty-six per cent increase in cases .
At the same time , guidelines for when a district should return to remote learning vary across municipalities and school districts .
“ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” Hanage said .
If schools reopen , or refuse to close , in the face of higher community-transmission levels , students , teachers , and staff will bring the virus home from the classroom .
And employees of one district might live , with their own children , in another .
This patchwork of restrictions , half measures , budget shortages , and outright negligence—and the fact that every school district , college , municipality , and state is taking a different approach—could potentially lead to chaos , Hanage said .
“ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” What will also help this winter are increased levels of immunity .
“ Even people who have mild infections get a pretty amazing antibody response , ” Florian Krammer , a virologist at Mount Sinai , said .
In one published study , Krammer and his collaborators called back a hundred and twenty patients who had tested positive for neutralizing antibodies and found that , after three months , their antibodies were stable .
“ Initially , you get a lot of them , ” he said .
“ Between three and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to go down ” —but , in most of the patients he has studied , they do not disappear .
A recent study about a fishing boat offered striking evidence that neutralizing antibodies protect against infection .
No one on the crew tested positive for the coronavirus before the boat departed , but three people did test positive for neutralizing antibodies .
Nevertheless , once out at sea , there was an outbreak on board .
Most passengers were infected , but the three men with neutralizing antibodies were not .
“ It @ @ @ @ @ @ @ people just by chance did not get it , ” Krammer , who was not involved in the study , said .
Questions still remain about the durability of antibodies , and who is likely to have them , but antibodies clearly provide some level of protection .
Even with 33.4 million cases around the world , reinfections have been exceedingly rare .
If a second infection does occur , it is likely to be much weaker , if not asymptomatic , as was the case recently with a thirty-three-year-old man in Hong @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that some people might have a small degree of preëxisting immunity to SARS-CoV-2 .
At least five recent studies from around the world found that a significant number of unexposed , healthy people already had T cells that recognized and reacted to the virus .
A follow-up study confirmed that this T-cell “ memory ” was due to previous exposure to the other four human coronaviruses , which cause the common cold .
“ We SPECULATE that it is conceivable that these T cells may potentially reduce COVID-19 disease severity , ” Shane @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Jolla Institute for Immunology , and an author on two of the studies , wrote on Twitter .
T cells do not generally prevent infection , but they can destroy infected cells and quickly stop the virus from spreading throughout a person ’ s body .
Researchers have also suggested that the tuberculosis vaccine might provide some immunity against severe COVID-19 .
Among fourteen European countries , those with active programs for universal tuberculosis vaccination at birth ( such as Ukraine and Lithuania ) also had reduced COVID-19 mortality rates , relative to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as Italy and the Netherlands ) .
Carolina Barillas-Mury , a researcher at the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases , who co-authored a paper on this phenomenon , told me that the correlation was “ very strong for epidemiological data , ” and might explain why the mean mortality rate in Western Europe was 9.92 times higher than in Eastern Europe .

The other day, as I was driving across the Brooklyn Bridge, the brakes of my car, a twenty-one-year-old Toyota, stopped working. I pressed the pedal. The car kept rolling. I was going slowly enough that I didn’t hit anyone, or anything, but the feeling was nauseating. The emergency brake, thankfully, still worked, and I inched into Manhattan with my hazards on. Afterward, as I sat in the car, safely parked behind City Hall but shaking with fear, it struck me that the incident was a bit too on the nose, too appropriate, for this moment. The public-health system that should have slowed the pandemic has failed. Now, as flu season arrives, the uncertain course of the coronavirus in the U.S. can feel like a queasy ride toward further disaster. What will the crucible of winter hold?
In September, the official death toll in the United States surpassed two hundred thousand. Despite an over-all decline in infection and mortality rates since the spring, more than seven hundred people, on average, are dying every day from COVID-19. “We have become used to this level of disease that is really pretty awful,” Eric Toner, a senior scholar with the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, recently told Politico. Still, Donald Trump and other political leaders have continued to flout restrictions, at a time when the stakes couldn’t be higher. In August, half a million motorcyclists attended the annual Sturgis rally, in South Dakota, encouraged by the state’s Republican governor, Kristi Noem, leading to at least one death and a hundred thousand infections across the country, according to one study. Despite the spike in coronavirus cases in Tulsa, Oklahoma, following Trump’s indoor campaign rally there, in June, he held another indoor campaign rally, in Nevada, on September 13th. Hundreds of unmasked supporters crowded into a manufacturing warehouse, violating the state’s ban on gatherings of fifty or more. More recently, at a campaign rally in Ohio, Trump said that the virus “affects virtually nobody.”
After two months of decline, the number of new cases nationwide has been rising steadily, now averaging around forty thousand per day. Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, recently estimated that, in order to maintain control of the pandemic this winter, the country should be averaging less than ten thousand infections per day. “I would like to see that number in the very low thousands,” he told me. “Less than ten thousand. To be stuck at forty thousand cases a day, as a nation, is a precarious position.” Of course, we might have been better prepared. Back in May, Rick Bright, the former head of the U.S. Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, who had been demoted a month earlier for insisting that the drug hydroxychloroquine should be rigorously tested, warned that, without any kind of national strategic plan, the country faced the “darkest winter in modern history.” We’re now staring down that barrel.
At the current rate of infection, daily deaths could climb back to two thousand per day by mid-November, according to the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. The group’s model, which uses a wide-ranging set of very specific assumptions—about climate, for instance, and about mobility—to hypothesize future scenarios, estimates that we could see a total of four hundred thousand deaths by the end of the year. Modellers are quick to caution, however, that estimating specific counts that far into the future is not much different from predicting the exact weather on any given day in December. Youyang Gu, a young data scientist who independently created one of the most accurate forecasting models available, acknowledged that a fall wave could increase daily deaths by mid-November. But he has not released projections that extend more than six weeks into the future. “There is no point,” he said. “It gives people a sense of certainty when there is no certainty.”
Although a clear set of guidelines exists for controlling the pandemic in the months ahead, there are still many variables, including a degree of chance. Because there are no borders within the U.S., and people can go where they want, many places “are going to feel like they’ve been so vigilant, and they are just going to get unlucky,” Nick Reich, the head of a lab at the University of Massachusetts, Amherst, and the creator of the Covid-19 Forecast Hub, said. Although many experts also said that there is room for hope—chiefly, that communities and workplaces will take sufficient precautions to prevent the sorts of overwhelming outbreaks that took place in the spring—none were optimistic. They all emphasized the chaos caused by a lack of federal leadership. “No one I know expects it to be better,” Bill Hanage, an associate professor of epidemiology at the Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health, told me. “The question is: How much worse?”
Weather is the first, most obvious factor. Experts generally agree that, in temperate regions, colder weather will lead to more coronavirus cases, as it does with other respiratory viruses. They just cannot say exactly why. “There are ongoing debates for a lot of diseases,” Justin Lessler, an epidemiologist at Johns Hopkins University, told me. “Is it changes in social interactions that drive seasonality? Or is it actual biological and physical mechanisms?” The coronavirus spreads easily across a poorly ventilated room, where studies show it can linger for hours. “It’s all more intense inside,” Emily Gurley, another epidemiologist at Hopkins, said. Humidity plays a part, too. Evidence from flu studies shows that smaller particles travel farther when humidity is lower. Arid winter air dries out people’s airways, making them more vulnerable to infection. People cough more in the winter months. They are prone to Vitamin D deficiencies, too. Tom Frieden, a former director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, pointed out that outbreaks among meatpackers have been common not only in the United States but all over Europe. “Think of what a meatpacking factory is,” he said. “It’s winter.”
The usual seasonal viruses, especially influenza, will also have negative impacts. There is the possibility of a one-two punch, particularly among older people: becoming infected first with a cold or flu, which weakens the respiratory system, and then with SARS-CoV-2. Many hospitals already have trouble during bad flu years, and health-care providers are worried about a “twindemic,” in which facilities are doubly stressed by post-flu pneumonia patients and COVID-19 patients. That said, every measure to control the coronavirus could also, potentially, control the flu, the common cold, and other seasonal viruses. More people might be inclined to get the flu vaccine now than in previous years. This winter could therefore see a mild flu season, as was the case this past winter in the Southern Hemisphere. School closures, travel restrictions, social distancing, and mask-wearing dramatically reduced flu transmission, even though SARS-CoV-2, which is more infectious, continued to spread.
Clusters are possible anywhere—factories, offices, crowded housing developments—but an unpublished study of location data, by Google and a group of Harvard-affiliated hospitals, found that the policy associated with the greatest increase in social distancing was bar and restaurant closures. In June, a JPMorgan Chase analysis of credit-card spending found that in-restaurant purchases are the strongest predictor of increases in COVID-19 cases. Currently, the fastest-rising case counts are in swaths of rural and suburban America—in states such as Wisconsin, the Dakotas, and Utah—which avoided outbreaks in the spring and summer. Cases have also risen rapidly in college towns. The New York Times found that more than forty-two thousand confirmed cases have been reported at American colleges since early September. In Florida, Governor Ron DeSantis, a Republican, just opened bars and restaurants at full capacity.