lifesitenews--2020-03-17--New scientific paper suggests high deaths from coronavirus without effective containment

LONDON , England , March 17 , 2020 ( LifeSiteNews ) ― Epidemiologists say that if the spread of the coronavirus COVID-19 is not stopped , deaths in the U.S. could potentially reach 2.2 million and in Britain 510,000 .
The COVID-19 Response Team from London ’ s Imperial College of Science , Technology and Medicine published a paper yesterday about preventing the pandemic from overwhelming the health systems of both the U.K. and the U.S. Their findings have already been used to influence governmental policy in the U.K. and other nations .
The team , led by Professor Neil @ @ @ @ @ @ @ facing the most serious public health threat from a respiratory virus since the so-called Spanish Flu epidemic of 1918 .
Using data about the pandemic and the capacities of the British and American health networks , they have accessed the various public health measures that can be taken to stop people from spreading the highly contagious virus .
The two strategies the epidemiologists proposed were mitigation , which will slow down the speed at which the virus is being passed on , and suppression , which will reverse its progress .
The Response @ @ @ @ @ @ @ claiming that mitigation will still lead to a high mortality rate .
“ We find that that [ sic ] optimal mitigation policies ( combining home isolation of suspect cases , home quarantine of those living in the same household as suspect cases , and social distancing of the elderly and others at most risk of severe disease ) might reduce peak healthcare demand by 2/3 and deaths by half , ” they wrote .
“ However , the resulting mitigated epidemic would still likely result in hundreds of thousands of deaths and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ units ) being overwhelmed many times over .
For countries able to achieve it , this leaves suppression as the preferred policy option.
” In America and the U.K. , they say this suppression will require , at very least , social distancing of the entire population , home isolation of people with the virus and the household quarantine of their families .
This will need to be maintained until a Covid-19 vaccine is available ― something that may be 18 months in the future .
If the “ suppression ” method is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rebound .
But at the same time , the suppression measures carry “ profound ” consequences for society .
“ [ W ] hile experience in China and now South Korea show that suppression is possible in the short term , it remains to be seen whether it is possible long-term , and whether the social and economic costs of the interventions adopted thus far can be reduced , ” the epidemiologists wrote .
If no precautions were taken , and the virus was allowed to take its course , the mortality rate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ deaths – would peak after three months .
Eighty-one percent ( 81 % ) of both Great Britain and the U.S. would be infected and , the Response Team predicted , there would be 2.2 million coronavirus deaths in the U.S. and 510,000 in the U.K. Britain ’ s death rate would peak in late May , and America ’ s in early June .
However , this does not take into consideration all the people who would die from accidents and ailments that went untreated because hospitals were overflowing .
The Response @ @ @ @ @ @ @ run through the population unchecked , COVID-19 would lead to Intensive Care Units being overfilled by mid-April .
“ For an uncontrolled epidemic , we predict critical care bed capacity would be exceeded as early as the second week in April , with an eventual peak in ICU or critical care bed demand that is over 30 times greater than the maximum supply in both countries , ” they wrote .
But even a mitigating strategy would overwhelm the hospitals , so they advise that suppression is probably necessary to stop the contagion @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it out .
This , unfortunately , requires the social distancing of the entire population for five months .
“ Given that mitigation is unlikely to be a viable option without overwhelming healthcare systems , suppression is likely necessary in countries able to implement the intensive controls required , ” the Response Team wrote .
“ Our projections show that to be able to reduce [ rate of transmission ] to close to 1 or below , a combination of case isolation , social distancing of the entire population and either household quarantine @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , ” they continued .
Household quarantine would be made more effective by closing down schools and universities―although this does not account to all the parents who would otherwise be working in the ICU having to tend to their children at home .
This slowing down of the spread of the virus through the U.S. and the U.K. will not stop it completely , and the Response Team warns that the suppression policies would have to be maintained until a vaccine is available .
However , it may be possible to give the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the measures , depending on the local situation .
“ To avoid a rebound in transmission , these policies will need to be maintained until large stocks of vaccine are available to immunise the population – which could be 18 months or more , ” they wrote .
“ Adaptive hospital surveillance-based triggers for switching on and off population-wide social distancing and school closure offer greater robustness to uncertainty than fixed duration interventions and can be adapted for regional use ( e.g .
at the state level in the US ) , ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are not perfectly synchronised , local policies are also more efficient and can achieve comparable levels of suppression to national policies while being in force for a slightly smaller proportion of the time .
However , we estimate that for a national [ Great Britain ] policy , social distancing would need to be in force for at least 2/3 of the time ... until a vaccine was available.
” The Response Team concluded that the epidemic suppression method – involving the social distancing of the entire population – is the “ only @ @ @ @ @ @ @ therefore conclude that epidemic suppression is the only viable strategy at the current time , ” they wrote .
“ The social and economic effects of the measures which are needed to achieve this policy goal will be profound .
Many countries have adopted such measures already , but even those countries at an earlier stage of their epidemic ( such as the UK ) will need to do so imminently .
”

Epidemiologists say that if the spread of the coronavirus COVID-19 is not stopped, deaths in the U.S. could potentially reach 2.2 million deaths.
LONDON, England, March 17, 2020 (LifeSiteNews) ― Epidemiologists say that if the spread of the coronavirus COVID-19 is not stopped, deaths in the U.S. could potentially reach 2.2 million and in Britain 510,000.
The COVID-19 Response Team from London’s Imperial College of Science, Technology and Medicine published a paper yesterday about preventing the pandemic from overwhelming the health systems of both the U.K. and the U.S. Their findings have already been used to influence governmental policy in the U.K. and other nations.
The team, led by Professor Neil Ferguson, reported that the world is facing the most serious public health threat from a respiratory virus since the so-called Spanish Flu epidemic of 1918. Using data about the pandemic and the capacities of the British and American health networks, they have accessed the various public health measures that can be taken to stop people from spreading the highly contagious virus.
The two strategies the epidemiologists proposed were mitigation, which will slow down the speed at which the virus is being passed on, and suppression, which will reverse its progress. The Response Team prefers suppression as a strategy, claiming that mitigation will still lead to a high mortality rate.
“We find that that [sic] optimal mitigation policies (combining home isolation of suspect cases, home quarantine of those living in the same household as suspect cases, and social distancing of the elderly and others at most risk of severe disease) might reduce peak healthcare demand by 2/3 and deaths by half,” they wrote.
“However, the resulting mitigated epidemic would still likely result in hundreds of thousands of deaths and health systems (most notably intensive care units) being overwhelmed many times over. For countries able to achieve it, this leaves suppression as the preferred policy option.”
In America and the U.K., they say this suppression will require, at very least, social distancing of the entire population, home isolation of people with the virus and the household quarantine of their families. This will need to be maintained until a Covid-19 vaccine is available ― something that may be 18 months in the future.
If the “suppression” method is relaxed too soon, the virus could rebound. But at the same time, the suppression measures carry “profound” consequences for society.
“[W]hile experience in China and now South Korea show that suppression is possible in the short term, it remains to be seen whether it is possible long-term, and whether the social and economic costs of the interventions adopted thus far can be reduced,” the epidemiologists wrote.
If no precautions were taken, and the virus was allowed to take its course, the mortality rate – by which the report means daily deaths – would peak after three months. Eighty-one percent (81%) of both Great Britain and the U.S. would be infected and, the Response Team predicted, there would be 2.2 million coronavirus deaths in the U.S. and 510,000 in the U.K. Britain’s death rate would peak in late May, and America’s in early June.
However, this does not take into consideration all the people who would die from accidents and ailments that went untreated because hospitals were overflowing. The Response Team estimated that, if left to run through the population unchecked, COVID-19 would lead to Intensive Care Units being overfilled by mid-April.
“For an uncontrolled epidemic, we predict critical care bed capacity would be exceeded as early as the second week in April, with an eventual peak in ICU or critical care bed demand that is over 30 times greater than the maximum supply in both countries,” they wrote.
But even a mitigating strategy would overwhelm the hospitals, so they advise that suppression is probably necessary to stop the contagion in the countries that can actually carry it out. This, unfortunately, requires the social distancing of the entire population for five months.
“Given that mitigation is unlikely to be a viable option without overwhelming healthcare systems, suppression is likely necessary in countries able to implement the intensive controls required,” the Response Team wrote.
“Our projections show that to be able to reduce [rate of transmission] to close to 1 or below, a combination of case isolation, social distancing of the entire population and either household quarantine or school and university closure are required,” they continued.
Household quarantine would be made more effective by closing down schools and universities―although this does not account to all the parents who would otherwise be working in the ICU having to tend to their children at home.
This slowing down of the spread of the virus through the U.S. and the U.K. will not stop it completely, and the Response Team warns that the suppression policies would have to be maintained until a vaccine is available. However, it may be possible to give the population of a given area breaks from the measures, depending on the local situation.
“To avoid a rebound in transmission, these policies will need to be maintained until large stocks of vaccine are available to immunise the population – which could be 18 months or more,” they wrote.
“Adaptive hospital surveillance-based triggers for switching on and off population-wide social distancing and school closure offer greater robustness to uncertainty than fixed duration interventions and can be adapted for regional use (e.g. at the state level in the US),” they continued.
“Given local epidemics are not perfectly synchronised, local policies are also more efficient and can achieve comparable levels of suppression to national policies while being in force for a slightly smaller proportion of the time. However, we estimate that for a national [Great Britain] policy, social distancing would need to be in force for at least 2/3 of the time … until a vaccine was available.”
The Response Team concluded that the epidemic suppression method – involving the social distancing of the entire population – is the “only viable strategy” now.
“We therefore conclude that epidemic suppression is the only viable strategy at the current time,” they wrote.
“The social and economic effects of the measures which are needed to achieve this policy goal will be profound. Many countries have adopted such measures already, but even those countries at an earlier stage of their epidemic (such as the UK) will need to do so imminently.”
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lifesitenews--2020-03-18--Yes, there’s a St. Corona, but she has nothing to do with fighting viruses

FELTRE , Italy , March 18 , 2020 ( LifeSiteNews ) ― A little-known saint has been rescued from her earthly obscurity because of her striking name .
St.Corona , until now believed to be the patron saint of treasure hunters , has been promoted by spontaneous internet reports as the patroness of those fighting against plagues and pandemics .
However , evidence for this claim is lacking .
The historical details of the life of St. Corona are few .
According to the webpage of the Basilica of Saints Victor and Corona in Anzu , Italy , her martyrdom @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Victor , was recorded in a fourth century work by a deacon in the Church of Antioch .
The two saints were martyred in 171 AD in Syria during the persecutions of Marcus Aurelius ( b.121 - d.180 ) .
The unknown author wrote that St. Corona , the young wife of one of St. Victor ’ s colleagues , was present when the soldier was put on trial for his Christianity and tortured .
Impressed by his courage , St. Corona declared aloud that she , too , was a Christian .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ to have her feet tied to the tops of two curved palm trees , which were then released , tearing her apart .
“ St .
Victor , instead , had his head cut off , ” the account ends .
Another account of the martyrdom of Saints Corona and Victor appears in the Roman Martyrology .
This account says the two were martyred during the reign of Antoninus ( b.86- d.161 ) .
“ Victor was subjected to various horrible torments under the judge Sebastian , ” it reads .
“ As @ @ @ @ @ @ @ soldier , was proclaiming him happy for his fortitude in his suffering , she saw two crowns falling from heaven , one for Victor and the other for herself , ” it continues .
“ She related this to all present , and was torn to pieces between two trees ; Victor was beheaded.
” The relics of Saints Victor and Corona now resting in the Basilica are believed to have traveled from Syria to Cyprus and then to Venice before arriving in Feltre “ probably in the ninth century , ” the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ out in 1943 and 1981 confirmed that the relics are the bones of a man and a woman .
The later investigation determined the presence of Cedrus pollen , suggesting that the relics are indeed from the Middle East , as the tradition states .
Less certain is that anyone prayed to St. Corona for the relief of disease before this current outbreak of a coronavirus .
Historically , she has had a following in German-speaking countries , but unfortunately her name was given to a folk magic ritual popular in the 17th @ @ @ @ @ @ @ St. Corona thus became a patron saint of treasure hunting .
She has also been invoked as the patron saint of money because her name so closely resembles a German word for currency .
It would seem , therefore , the story that St. Corona is a noted patroness of plague and pandemic is too good to be true .
A saint who is proven to have been invoked in times of pestilence is St. Edmund of East Anglia .
Almost nothing is known about St. Edmund ’ s life and martyrdom , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ saved the French city of Toulouse from the plague that raged there between 1628 and 1631 .
The feast of Saints Victor and Corona is traditionally celebrated on March 14 .

FELTRE, Italy, March 18, 2020 (LifeSiteNews) ― A little-known saint has been rescued from her earthly obscurity because of her striking name.
St.Corona, until now believed to be the patron saint of treasure hunters, has been promoted by spontaneous internet reports as the patroness of those fighting against plagues and pandemics. However, evidence for this claim is lacking.
The historical details of the life of St. Corona are few. According to the webpage of the Basilica of Saints Victor and Corona in Anzu, Italy, her martyrdom, which closely followed that of St. Victor, was recorded in a fourth century work by a deacon in the Church of Antioch. The two saints were martyred in 171 AD in Syria during the persecutions of Marcus Aurelius (b.121 – d.180).
The unknown author wrote that St. Corona, the young wife of one of St. Victor’s colleagues, was present when the soldier was put on trial for his Christianity and tortured. Impressed by his courage, St. Corona declared aloud that she, too, was a Christian. She was arrested, interrogated and condemned to have her feet tied to the tops of two curved palm trees, which were then released, tearing her apart.
“St. Victor, instead, had his head cut off,” the account ends.
Another account of the martyrdom of Saints Corona and Victor appears in the Roman Martyrology. This account says the two were martyred during the reign of Antoninus (b.86- d.161). “Victor was subjected to various horrible torments under the judge Sebastian,” it reads.
“As Corona, the wife of a certain soldier, was proclaiming him happy for his fortitude in his suffering, she saw two crowns falling from heaven, one for Victor and the other for herself,” it continues.
“She related this to all present, and was torn to pieces between two trees; Victor was beheaded.”
The relics of Saints Victor and Corona now resting in the Basilica are believed to have traveled from Syria to Cyprus and then to Venice before arriving in Feltre “probably in the ninth century,” the Basilica account states.
Scientific research carried out in 1943 and 1981 confirmed that the relics are the bones of a man and a woman. The later investigation determined the presence of Cedrus pollen, suggesting that the relics are indeed from the Middle East, as the tradition states.
Less certain is that anyone prayed to St. Corona for the relief of disease before this current outbreak of a coronavirus. Historically, she has had a following in German-speaking countries, but unfortunately her name was given to a folk magic ritual popular in the 17th and 18th centuries to find treasure. St. Corona thus became a patron saint of treasure hunting. She has also been invoked as the patron saint of money because her name so closely resembles a German word for currency.
It would seem, therefore, the story that St. Corona is a noted patroness of plague and pandemic is too good to be true. A saint who is proven to have been invoked in times of pestilence is St. Edmund of East Anglia. Almost nothing is known about St. Edmund’s life and martyrdom, but his intercession was believed to have saved the French city of Toulouse from the plague that raged there between 1628 and 1631.
The feast of Saints Victor and Corona is traditionally celebrated on March 14.
Follow Dorothy Dorothy Cummings McLean is a Canadian journalist, essayist, and novelist. She earned an M.A. in English Literature from the University of Toronto and an M.Div./S.T.B. from Toronto’s Regis College. She was a columnist for the Toronto Catholic Register for nine years and has contributed to Catholic World Report. Her first book, Seraphic Singles, was published by Novalis (2010) in Canada, Liguori in the USA, and Homo Dei in Poland. Her second, Ceremony of Innocence, was published by Ignatius Press (2013). Dorothy lives near Edinburgh, Scotland with her husband.
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